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Sample records for risk assessment codes

  1. Computer codes to assess risks from nuclear power plants with LWR's

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alonso, A.; Blanco, J.; Francia, L.; Gallego, E.; Morales, L.; Ortega, P.; Torres, C.

    1986-01-01

    The codes used to quantify risks from nuclear power plants are described. For QRA level 1 (quantitative risk assessment) qualitative and quantitative codes are described. Codes to estimate uncertainties, importance and dependent failures are also included. For QRA-level 2, the most important codes dealing with thermohydraulics, molten core and aerosols behaviour are described. For QRA-level 3 the list includes integrated as well as separate models. Only light water reactors are considered. The presentation is general but the authors describe with more detail those codes they are more familiar with or the ones they have created through their research effort. (author)

  2. Development of Integrated Code for Risk Assessment (INCORIA) for Physical Protection System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jang, Sung Soon; Seo, Hyung Min; Yoo, Ho Sik

    2010-01-01

    A physical protection system (PPS) integrates people, procedures and equipment for the protection of assets or facilities against theft, sabotage or other malevolent human attacks. Among critical facilities, nuclear facilities and nuclear weapon sites require the highest level of PPS. After the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, international communities, including the IAEA, have made substantial efforts to protect nuclear material and nuclear facilities. The international flow on nuclear security is using the concept or risk assessment. The concept of risk assessment is firstly devised by nuclear safety people. They considered nuclear safety including its possible risk, which is the frequency of failure and possible consequence. Nuclear security people also considers security risk, which is the frequency of threat action, vulnerability, and consequences. The concept means that we should protect more when the credible threat exists and the possible radiological consequence is high. Even if there are several risk assessment methods of nuclear security, the application needs the help of tools because of a lot of calculation. It's also hard to find tools for whole phase of risk assessment. Several codes exist for the part of risk assessment. SAVI are used for vulnerability of PPS. Vital area identification code is used for consequence analysis. We are developing Integrated Code for Risk Assessment (INCORIA) to apply risk assessment methods for nuclear facilities. INCORIA evaluates PP-KINAC measures and generation tools for threat scenario. PP-KINAC is risk assessment measures for physical protection system developed by Hosik Yoo and is easy to apply. A threat scenario tool is used to generate threat scenario, which is used as one of input value to PP-KINAC measures

  3. Description of codes and models to be used in risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-09-01

    Human health and environmental risk assessments will be performed as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act of 1980 (CERCLA) remedial investigation/feasibility study (RI/FS) activities at the Hanford Site. Analytical and computer encoded numerical models are commonly used during both the remedial investigation (RI) and feasibility study (FS) to predict or estimate the concentration of contaminants at the point of exposure to humans and/or the environment. This document has been prepared to identify the computer codes that will be used in support of RI/FS human health and environmental risk assessments at the Hanford Site. In addition to the CERCLA RI/FS process, it is recommended that these computer codes be used when fate and transport analyses is required for other activities. Additional computer codes may be used for other purposes (e.g., design of tracer tests, location of observation wells, etc.). This document provides guidance for unit managers in charge of RI/FS activities. Use of the same computer codes for all analytical activities at the Hanford Site will promote consistency, reduce the effort required to develop, validate, and implement models to simulate Hanford Site conditions, and expedite regulatory review. The discussion provides a description of how models will likely be developed and utilized at the Hanford Site. It is intended to summarize previous environmental-related modeling at the Hanford Site and provide background for future model development. The modeling capabilities that are desirable for the Hanford Site and the codes that were evaluated. The recommendations include the codes proposed to support future risk assessment modeling at the Hanford Site, and provides the rational for the codes selected. 27 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab

  4. ANDROS: A code for Assessment of Nuclide Doses and Risks with Option Selection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Begovich, C.L.; Sjoreen, A.L.; Ohr, S.Y.; Chester, R.O.

    1986-11-01

    ANDROS (Assessment of Nuclide Doses and Risks with Option Selection) is a computer code written to compute doses and health effects from atmospheric releases of radionuclides. ANDROS has been designed as an integral part of the CRRIS (Computerized Radiological Risk Investigation System). ANDROS reads air concentrations and environmental concentrations of radionuclides to produce tables of specified doses and health effects to selected organs via selected pathways (e.g., ingestion or air immersion). The calculation may be done for an individual at a specific location or for the population of the whole assessment grid. The user may request tables of specific effects for every assessment grid location. Along with the radionuclide concentrations, the code requires radionuclide decay data, dose and risk factors, and location-specific data, all of which are available within the CRRIS. This document is a user manual for ANDROS and presents the methodology used in this code

  5. Software quality assurance procedures for radioactive waste risk assessment codes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hill, I.; Mayer, J.

    1990-01-01

    This support study for the evaluation of the safety of geological disposal systems is aimed at identifying the requirements for software quality assurance procedures for radioactive waste risk assessment codes, and to recommend appropriate procedures. The research covers: (i) the analysis of existing procedures and definition of requirements; (ii) a case study of the use of some existing procedures; (iii) the definition and the implementation of procedures. The report is supported by appendices that give more detail on the procedures recommended. It is intended to provide ideas on the steps that should be taken to ensure the quality of the programs used for assessment of the safety case for radioactive waste repositories, and does not represent the introduction of wholly new ideas or techniques. The emphasis throughout is on procedures that will be easily implemented, rather than on the fully rigorous procedures that are required for some application areas. The study has concentrated on measures that will increase the confidence in repository performance assessments among the wider scientific/engineering community, and the lay public

  6. ASME nuclear codes and standards risk management strategic planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hill, Ralph S. III; Balkey, Kenneth R.; Erler, Bryan A.; Wesley Rowley, C.

    2007-01-01

    This paper is prepared in honor and in memory of the late Professor Emeritus Yasuhide Asada to recognize his contributions to ASME Nuclear Codes and Standards initiatives, particularly those related to risk-informed technology and System Based Code developments. For nearly two decades, numerous risk-informed initiatives have been completed or are under development within the ASME Nuclear Codes and Standards organization. In order to properly manage the numerous initiatives currently underway or planned for the future, the ASME Board on Nuclear Codes and Standards (BNCS) has an established Risk Management Strategic Plan (Plan) that is maintained and updated by the ASME BNCS Risk Management Task Group. This paper presents the latest approved version of the plan beginning with a background of applications completed to date, including the recent probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) standards developments for nuclear power plant applications. The paper discusses planned applications within ASME Nuclear Codes and Standards that will require expansion of the ASME PRA Standard to support new advanced light water reactor and next generation reactor developments, such as for high temperature gas-cooled reactors. Emerging regulatory developments related to risk-informed, performance- based approaches are summarized. A long-term vision for the potential development and evolution to a nuclear systems code that adopts a risk-informed approach across a facility life-cycle (design, construction, operation, maintenance, and closure) is also summarized. Finally, near term and long term actions are defined across the ASME Nuclear Codes and Standards organizations related to risk management, including related U.S. regulatory activities. (author)

  7. ASME nuclear codes and standards risk management strategic plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Balkey, Kenneth R.

    2003-01-01

    Over the past 15 years, several risk-informed initiatives have been completed or are under development within the ASME Nuclear Codes and Standards organization. In order to better manage the numerous initiatives in the future, the ASME Board on Nuclear Codes and Standards has recently developed and approved a Risk Management Strategic Plan. This paper presents the latest approved version of the plan beginning with a background of applications completed to date, including the recent issuance of the ASME Standard for Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) for Nuclear Power Plant Applications. The paper discusses potential applications within ASME Nuclear Codes and Standards that may require expansion of the PRA Standard, such as for new generation reactors, or the development of new PRA Standards. A long-term vision for the potential development and evolution to a nuclear systems code that adopts a risk-informed approach across a facility life-cycle (design, construction, operation, maintenance, and closure) is summarized. Finally, near term and long term actions are defined across the ASME Nuclear Codes and Standards organizations related to risk management, and related U.S. regulatory activities are also summarized. (author)

  8. Report on a study of the feasibility of use of the COLUMN2 computer program in a probabilistic risk assessment code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hall, R.C.; Liew, S.K.

    1986-10-01

    This report contains the results of a feasibility study carried out on the COLUMN2 computer program to assess its potential for use in time-dependent probabilistic risk assessment code for radiological assessment purposes. COLUMN2 is a program which provides predictions of nuclide transport in a one-dimensional geosphere configuration using a simple Ksub(d) approach for sorption. A moving grid numerical solver is used and the program is therefore potentially capable of handling time-dependent parameters. The reported work covers aspects of code acquisition, loading, theory and structure, necessary code modifications and testing, the last aspect including two documented test cases from the COLUMN2 manual and verification tests derived from international comparison exercises. Recommendations are made as to the required code development of COLUMN2 in order that the code is capable of fulfilling its prime role as defined by the System Design Working Group in a pra code. (author)

  9. Input to the PRAST computer code used in the SRS probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kearnaghan, D.P.

    1992-01-01

    The PRAST (Production Reactor Algorithm for Source Terms) computer code was developed by Westinghouse Savannah River Company and Science Application International Corporation for the quantification of source terms for the SRS Savannah River Site (SRS) Reactor Probabilistic Risk Assessment. PRAST requires as input a set of release fractions, decontamination factors, transfer fractions and source term characteristics that accurately reflect the conditions that are evaluated by PRAST. This document links the analyses which form the basis for the PRAST input parameters. In addition, it gives the distribution of the input parameters that are uncertain and considered to be important to the evaluation of the source terms to the environment

  10. Developing RESRAD-BASELINE for environmental baseline risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheng, Jing-Jy.

    1995-01-01

    RESRAD-BASELINE is a computer code developed at Argonne developed at Argonne National Laboratory for the US Department of Energy (DOE) to perform both radiological and chemical risk assessments. The code implements the baseline risk assessment guidance of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA 1989). The computer code calculates (1) radiation doses and cancer risks from exposure to radioactive materials, and (2) hazard indexes and cancer risks from exposure to noncarcinogenic and carcinogenic chemicals, respectively. The user can enter measured or predicted environmental media concentrations from the graphic interface and can simulate different exposure scenarios by selecting the appropriate pathways and modifying the exposure parameters. The database used by PESRAD-BASELINE includes dose conversion factors and slope factors for radionuclides and toxicity information and properties for chemicals. The user can modify the database for use in the calculation. Sensitivity analysis can be performed while running the computer code to examine the influence of the input parameters. Use of RESRAD-BASELINE for risk analysis is easy, fast, and cost-saving. Furthermore, it ensures in consistency in methodology for both radiological and chemical risk analyses

  11. Radiological impact assessment in Malaysia using RESRAD computer code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Syed Hakimi Sakuma Syed Ahmad; Khairuddin Mohamad Kontol; Razali Hamzah

    1999-01-01

    Radiological Impact Assessment (RIA) can be conducted in Malaysia by using the RESRAD computer code developed by Argonne National Laboratory, U.S.A. The code can do analysis to derive site specific guidelines for allowable residual concentrations of radionuclides in soil. Concepts of the RIA in the context of waste management concern in Malaysia, some regulatory information and assess status of data collection are shown. Appropriate use scenarios and site specific parameters are used as much as possible so as to be realistic so that will reasonably ensure that individual dose limits and or constraints will be achieved. Case study have been conducted to fulfil Atomic Energy Licensing Board (AELB) requirements where for disposal purpose the operator must be required to carry out. a radiological impact assessment to all proposed disposals. This is to demonstrate that no member of public will be exposed to more than 1 mSv/year from all activities. Results obtained from analyses show the RESRAD computer code is able to calculate doses, risks, and guideline values. Sensitivity analysis by the computer code shows that the parameters used as input are justified so as to improve confidence to the public and the AELB the results of the analysis. The computer code can also be used as an initial assessment to conduct screening assessment in order to determine a proper disposal site. (Author)

  12. Risk assessment for transport operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Appleton, P.R.; Miles, J.C.

    1990-01-01

    The world-wide safety of the transport of radioactive material is based on the IAEA Transport Regulations. Risk assessment can provide quantitative data to help in the demonstration, understanding and improvement of the effectiveness of the Regulations in assuring safety. In this Paper the methodology, data and computer codes necessary and available for transport risk assessment are reviewed. Notable examples of assessments carried out over the past 15 years are briefly described along with current research, and the benefits and limitations of the techniques are discussed. (author)

  13. Performance Assessment and analysis of national building codes with fire safety in all wards of a hospital

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Mahdinia

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Background and aimsAIDS as a re-emergent disease and Viral hepatitis (B and C as one of thBackground and objective: Fire safety is an important problem in hospitals. Movement less, lack of awareness and special situation of residents are the reasons of this subject. In more countries such as Iran, fire protection regulations have compiled within the framework of national building codes. Current building codes don't create sufficient safety for patient in the hospitals in different situations and more of the advanced countries in the world effort to establish building code, base  on performance. This study to be accomplished with this goal that determination of fire risk level in the wards of a hospital and survey the efficiency of the national building codes. Methodsfire risk assesses is done, using "engineering fire risk assessment method" with the checklist for Data gathering. In this manner, risk calculate in all compartments and in the next  stage for survey the effect of building codes, with this supposition that all compartment is  conforming to building code requirement, risk level calculate in two situation.Resultsthe results of present study reveals that, risk level in all wards is more than one and even though risk less than one is acceptable, consequently minimum of safely situations didn't  produce in most wards. The results show the national building code in the different conditions  don't have appropriate efficient for creation of suitable safety. Conclusionin order to access to a fire safety design with sufficient efficiency, suitable selection is use of risk assessment based on, design methods.

  14. A Life-Cycle Risk-Informed Systems Structured Nuclear Code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hill, Ralph S. III

    2002-01-01

    Current American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) nuclear codes and standards rely primarily on deterministic and mechanistic approaches to design. The design code is a separate volume from the code for inservice inspections and both are separate from the standards for operations and maintenance. The ASME code for inservice inspections and code for nuclear plant operations and maintenance have adopted risk-informed methodologies for inservice inspection, preventive maintenance, and repair and replacement decisions. The American Institute of Steel Construction and the American Concrete Institute have incorporated risk-informed probabilistic methodologies into their design codes. It is proposed that the ASME nuclear code should undergo a planned evolution that integrates the various nuclear codes and standards and adopts a risk-informed approach across a facility life-cycle - encompassing design, construction, operation, maintenance and closure. (author)

  15. Accident consequence assessment code development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Homma, T.; Togawa, O.

    1991-01-01

    This paper describes the new computer code system, OSCAAR developed for off-site consequence assessment of a potential nuclear accident. OSCAAR consists of several modules which have modeling capabilities in atmospheric transport, foodchain transport, dosimetry, emergency response and radiological health effects. The major modules of the consequence assessment code are described, highlighting the validation and verification of the models. (author)

  16. LISA. A code for safety assessment in nuclear waste disposals program description and user guide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saltelli, A.; Bertozzi, G.; Stanners, D.A.

    1984-01-01

    The code LISA (Long term Isolation Safety Assessment), developed at the Joint Research Centre, Ispra is a useful tool in the analysis of the hazard due to the disposal of nuclear waste in geological formations. The risk linked to preestablished release scenarios is assessed by the code in terms of dose rate to a maximum exposed individual. The various submodels in the code simulate the system of barriers -both natural and man made- which are interposed between the contaminants and man. After a description of the code features a guide for the user is supplied and then a test case is presented

  17. RELAP5/MOD2 code assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nithianandan, C.K.; Shah, N.H.; Schomaker, R.J.; Miller, F.R.

    1985-01-01

    Babcock and Wilcox (B and W) has been working with the code developers at EG and G and the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission in assessing the RELAP5/MOD2 computer code for the past year by simulating selected separate-effects tests. The purpose of this assessment has been to evaluate the code for use in MIST (Ref. 2) and OTIS integral system tests simulations and in the prediction of pressurized water reactor transients. B and W evaluated various versions of the code and made recommendations to improve code performance. As a result, the currently released version (cycle 36.1) has been improved considerably over earlier versions. However, further refinements to some of the constitutive models may still be needed to further improve the predictive capability of RELAP5/MOD2. The following versions of the code were evaluated. (1) RELAP/MOD2/Cycle 22 - first released version; (2) YELAP5/Cycle 32 - EG and G test version of RELAP5/MOD2/Cycle 32; (3) RELAP5/MOD2/Cycle 36 - frozen cycle for international code assessment; (4) updates to cycle 36 based on recommendations developed by B and W during the simulation of a Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) pressurizer test; and (5) cycle 36.1 updates received from EG and G

  18. RELAP5/MOD2 code assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nithianandan, C.K.; Shah, N.H.; Schomaker, R.J.; Miller, F.R.

    1985-11-01

    Babcock and Wilcox (B and W) has been working with the code developers at EG and G and the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission in assessing the RELAP5/MOD2 computer code for the past year by simulating selected separate-effects tests. The purpose of this assessment has been to evaluate the code for use in MIST (Ref. 2) and OTIS integral system tests simulations and in the prediction of pressurized water reactor transients. B and W evaluated various versions of the code and made recommendations to improve code performance. As a result, the currently released version (cycle 36.1) has been improved considerably over earlier versions. However, further refinements to some of the constitutive models may still be needed to further improve the predictive capability of RELAP5/MOD2. The following versions of the code were evaluated. (1) RELAP/MOD2/Cycle 22 - first released version; (2) YELAP5/Cycle 32 - EG and G test version of RELAP5/MOD2/Cycle 32; (3) RELAP5/MOD2/Cycle 36 - frozen cycle for international code assessment; (4) updates to cycle 36 based on recommendations developed by B and W during the simulation of a Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) pressurizer test; and (5) cycle 36.1 updates received from EG and G.

  19. TRECII: a computer program for transportation risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Franklin, A.L.

    1980-05-01

    A risk-based fault tree analysis method has been developed at the Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) for analysis of nuclear fuel cycle operations. This methodology was developed for the Department of Energy (DOE) as a risk analysis tool for evaluating high level waste management systems. A computer package consisting of three programs was written at that time to assist in the performance of risk assessment: ACORN (draws fault trees), MFAULT (analyzes fault trees), and RAFT (calculates risk). This methodology evaluates release consequences and estimates the frequency of occurrence of these consequences. This document describes an additional risk calculating code which can be used in conjunction with two of the three codes for transportation risk assessment. TRECII modifies the definition of risk used in RAFT (prob. x release) to accommodate release consequences in terms of fatalities. Throughout this report risk shall be defined as probability times consequences (fatalities are one possible health effect consequence). This methodology has been applied to a variety of energy material transportation systems. Typically the material shipped has been radioactive, although some adaptation to fossil fuels has occurred. The approach is normally applied to truck or train transport systems with some adaptation to pipelines and aircraft. TRECII is designed to be used primarily in conjunction with MFAULT; however, with a moderate amount of effort by the user, it can be implemented independent of the risk analysis package developed at PNL. Code description and user instructions necessary for the implementation of the TRECII program are provided

  20. The grout/glass performance assessment code system (GPACS) with verification and benchmarking

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Piepho, M.G.; Sutherland, W.H.; Rittmann, P.D.

    1994-12-01

    GPACS is a computer code system for calculating water flow (unsaturated or saturated), solute transport, and human doses due to the slow release of contaminants from a waste form (in particular grout or glass) through an engineered system and through a vadose zone to an aquifer, well and river. This dual-purpose document is intended to serve as a user's guide and verification/benchmark document for the Grout/Glass Performance Assessment Code system (GPACS). GPACS can be used for low-level-waste (LLW) Glass Performance Assessment and many other applications including other low-level-waste performance assessments and risk assessments. Based on all the cses presented, GPACS is adequate (verified) for calculating water flow and contaminant transport in unsaturated-zone sediments and for calculating human doses via the groundwater pathway

  1. Reducing the harms associated with risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Montague, Peter

    2004-01-01

    Risk assessments are the intellectual products of dedicated public health and environmental professionals. Like many other products, risk assessments carry with them the potential for both good and harm. This paper briefly examines some of the harms to which risk assessments have contributed, and then suggests that the legal 'duty to warn' doctrine offers a logical and practical way to reduce some of these harms. The paper suggests concepts that could be incorporated into warnings accompanying every formal risk assessment as routine 'boiler plate' addenda, just as other potentially harmful products, such as lawn mowers and cook stoves, are accompanied by warnings. Finally, the paper briefly examines the 'Code of Ethics and Standards of Practice for Environmental Professionals' (promulgated by the National Association of Environmental Professionals) and shows that the suggested warnings are consistent with recommended practices for environmental professionals

  2. International Code Assessment and Applications Program: Summary of code assessment studies concerning RELAP5/MOD2, RELAP5/MOD3, and TRAC-B

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schultz, R.R.

    1993-12-01

    Members of the International Code Assessment Program (ICAP) have assessed the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) advanced thermal-hydraulic codes over the past few years in a concerted effort to identify deficiencies, to define user guidelines, and to determine the state of each code. The results of sixty-two code assessment reviews, conducted at INEL, are summarized. Code deficiencies are discussed and user recommended nodalizations investigated during the course of conducting the assessment studies and reviews are listed. All the work that is summarized was done using the RELAP5/MOD2, RELAP5/MOD3, and TRAC-B codes

  3. CATHARE code development and assessment methodologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Micaelli, J.C.; Barre, F.; Bestion, D.

    1995-01-01

    The CATHARE thermal-hydraulic code has been developed jointly by Commissariat a l'Energie Atomique (CEA), Electricite de France (EdF), and Framatorne for safety analysis. Since the beginning of the project (September 1979), development and assessment activities have followed a methodology supported by two series of experimental tests: separate effects tests and integral effects tests. The purpose of this paper is to describe this methodology, the code assessment status, and the evolution to take into account two new components of this program: the modeling of three-dimensional phenomena and the requirements of code uncertainty evaluation

  4. Use of reliability engineering tools in safety and risk assessment of nuclear facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Raso, Amanda Laureano; Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Marques, Raíssa Oliveira; Soares, Wellington Antonio; Mesquita, Amir Zacarias, E-mail: amandaraso@hotmail.com, E-mail: vasconv@cdtn.br, E-mail: raissaomarques@gmail.com, E-mail: soaresw@cdtn.br, E-mail: amir@cdtn.br [Centro de Desenvolvimento da Tecnologia Nuclear (CDTN/CNEN-MG), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil). Serviço de Tecnologia de Reatores

    2017-07-01

    Safety, reliability and availability are fundamental criteria in design, construction and operation of nuclear facilities, as nuclear power plants. Deterministic and probabilistic risk assessments of such facilities are required by regulatory authorities in order to meet licensing regulations, contributing to assure safety, as well as reduce costs and environmental impacts. Probabilistic Risk Assessment has become an important part of licensing requirements of the nuclear power plants in Brazil and in the world. Risk can be defined as a qualitative and/or quantitative assessment of accident sequence frequencies (or probabilities) and their consequences. Risk management is a systematic application of management policies, procedures and practices to identify, analyze, plan, implement, control, communicate and document risks. Several tools and computer codes must be combined, in order to estimate both probabilities and consequences of accidents. Event Tree Analysis (ETA), Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), Reliability Block Diagrams (RBD), and Markov models are examples of evaluation tools that can support the safety and risk assessment for analyzing process systems, identifying potential accidents, and estimating consequences. Because of complexity of such analyzes, specialized computer codes are required, such as the reliability engineering software develop by Reliasoft® Corporation. BlockSim (FTA, RBD and Markov models), RENO (ETA and consequence assessment), Weibull++ (life data and uncertainty analysis), and Xfmea (qualitative risk assessment) are some codes that can be highlighted. This work describes an integrated approach using these tools and software to carry out reliability, safety, and risk assessment of nuclear facilities, as well as, and application example. (author)

  5. Use of reliability engineering tools in safety and risk assessment of nuclear facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raso, Amanda Laureano; Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Marques, Raíssa Oliveira; Soares, Wellington Antonio; Mesquita, Amir Zacarias

    2017-01-01

    Safety, reliability and availability are fundamental criteria in design, construction and operation of nuclear facilities, as nuclear power plants. Deterministic and probabilistic risk assessments of such facilities are required by regulatory authorities in order to meet licensing regulations, contributing to assure safety, as well as reduce costs and environmental impacts. Probabilistic Risk Assessment has become an important part of licensing requirements of the nuclear power plants in Brazil and in the world. Risk can be defined as a qualitative and/or quantitative assessment of accident sequence frequencies (or probabilities) and their consequences. Risk management is a systematic application of management policies, procedures and practices to identify, analyze, plan, implement, control, communicate and document risks. Several tools and computer codes must be combined, in order to estimate both probabilities and consequences of accidents. Event Tree Analysis (ETA), Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), Reliability Block Diagrams (RBD), and Markov models are examples of evaluation tools that can support the safety and risk assessment for analyzing process systems, identifying potential accidents, and estimating consequences. Because of complexity of such analyzes, specialized computer codes are required, such as the reliability engineering software develop by Reliasoft® Corporation. BlockSim (FTA, RBD and Markov models), RENO (ETA and consequence assessment), Weibull++ (life data and uncertainty analysis), and Xfmea (qualitative risk assessment) are some codes that can be highlighted. This work describes an integrated approach using these tools and software to carry out reliability, safety, and risk assessment of nuclear facilities, as well as, and application example. (author)

  6. Benchmark problems for radiological assessment codes. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mills, M.; Vogt, D.; Mann, B.

    1983-09-01

    This report describes benchmark problems to test computer codes used in the radiological assessment of high-level waste repositories. The problems presented in this report will test two types of codes. The first type of code calculates the time-dependent heat generation and radionuclide inventory associated with a high-level waste package. Five problems have been specified for this code type. The second code type addressed in this report involves the calculation of radionuclide transport and dose-to-man. For these codes, a comprehensive problem and two subproblems have been designed to test the relevant capabilities of these codes for assessing a high-level waste repository setting

  7. Residential building codes, affordability, and health protection: a risk-tradeoff approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammitt, J K; Belsky, E S; Levy, J I; Graham, J D

    1999-12-01

    Residential building codes intended to promote health and safety may produce unintended countervailing risks by adding to the cost of construction. Higher construction costs increase the price of new homes and may increase health and safety risks through "income" and "stock" effects. The income effect arises because households that purchase a new home have less income remaining for spending on other goods that contribute to health and safety. The stock effect arises because suppression of new-home construction leads to slower replacement of less safe housing units. These countervailing risks are not presently considered in code debates. We demonstrate the feasibility of estimating the approximate magnitude of countervailing risks by combining the income effect with three relatively well understood and significant home-health risks. We estimate that a code change that increases the nationwide cost of constructing and maintaining homes by $150 (0.1% of the average cost to build a single-family home) would induce offsetting risks yielding between 2 and 60 premature fatalities or, including morbidity effects, between 20 and 800 lost quality-adjusted life years (both discounted at 3%) each year the code provision remains in effect. To provide a net health benefit, the code change would need to reduce risk by at least this amount. Future research should refine these estimates, incorporate quantitative uncertainty analysis, and apply a full risk-tradeoff approach to real-world case studies of proposed code changes.

  8. Code cases for implementing risk-based inservice testing in the ASME OM code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowley, C.W.

    1996-01-01

    Historically inservice testing has been reasonably effective, but quite costly. Recent applications of plant PRAs to the scope of the IST program have demonstrated that of the 30 pumps and 500 valves in the typical plant IST program, less than half of the pumps and ten percent of the valves are risk significant. The way the ASME plans to tackle this overly-conservative scope for IST components is to use the PRA and plant expert panels to create a two tier IST component categorization scheme. The PRA provides the quantitative risk information and the plant expert panel blends the quantitative and deterministic information to place the IST component into one of two categories: More Safety Significant Component (MSSC) or Less Safety Significant Component (LSSC). With all the pumps and valves in the IST program placed in MSSC or LSSC categories, two different testing strategies will be applied. The testing strategies will be unique for the type of component, such as centrifugal pump, positive displacement pump, MOV, AOV, SOV, SRV, PORV, HOV, CV, and MV. A series of OM Code Cases are being developed to capture this process for a plant to use. One Code Case will be for Component Importance Ranking. The remaining Code Cases will develop the MSSC and LSSC testing strategy for type of component. These Code Cases are planned for publication in early 1997. Later, after some industry application of the Code Cases, the alternative Code Case requirements will gravitate to the ASME OM Code as appendices

  9. Code cases for implementing risk-based inservice testing in the ASME OM code

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rowley, C.W.

    1996-12-01

    Historically inservice testing has been reasonably effective, but quite costly. Recent applications of plant PRAs to the scope of the IST program have demonstrated that of the 30 pumps and 500 valves in the typical plant IST program, less than half of the pumps and ten percent of the valves are risk significant. The way the ASME plans to tackle this overly-conservative scope for IST components is to use the PRA and plant expert panels to create a two tier IST component categorization scheme. The PRA provides the quantitative risk information and the plant expert panel blends the quantitative and deterministic information to place the IST component into one of two categories: More Safety Significant Component (MSSC) or Less Safety Significant Component (LSSC). With all the pumps and valves in the IST program placed in MSSC or LSSC categories, two different testing strategies will be applied. The testing strategies will be unique for the type of component, such as centrifugal pump, positive displacement pump, MOV, AOV, SOV, SRV, PORV, HOV, CV, and MV. A series of OM Code Cases are being developed to capture this process for a plant to use. One Code Case will be for Component Importance Ranking. The remaining Code Cases will develop the MSSC and LSSC testing strategy for type of component. These Code Cases are planned for publication in early 1997. Later, after some industry application of the Code Cases, the alternative Code Case requirements will gravitate to the ASME OM Code as appendices.

  10. Input data required for specific performance assessment codes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seitz, R.R.; Garcia, R.S.; Starmer, R.J.; Dicke, C.A.; Leonard, P.R.; Maheras, S.J.; Rood, A.S.; Smith, R.W.

    1992-02-01

    The Department of Energy's National Low-Level Waste Management Program at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory generated this report on input data requirements for computer codes to assist States and compacts in their performance assessments. This report gives generators, developers, operators, and users some guidelines on what input data is required to satisfy 22 common performance assessment codes. Each of the codes is summarized and a matrix table is provided to allow comparison of the various input required by the codes. This report does not determine or recommend which codes are preferable

  11. The assessment of health effect of Yonggwang site using the MACCS code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeong, Dognhan Yu; Kim, Seiung Hwan; Han, Byoung Sub; Song, Jong Soon

    1996-12-01

    The health effect assessment near the Yonggwang site by using IPE results and its site data was performed. The health effect assessment is an important part of consequence analysis of a nuclear power plant site. The MACCS code developed by SNL was used in the assessment. The necessary input data are source term data, meteorological data, population data, and detailed information about the release of radionuclides. The core inventory data for end-of-cycle are calculated by ORIGEN2 code for conservatism because fission product buildup is greatest at end-of-cycle conditions. Meteorological and population data was derived from the FSAR and environmental impact statement report, and source term release data was derived from the IPE report. by using the MACCS code, the CCDF is obtained as a result and economic impact analysis is also possible. First of all, the average value of early fatality was estimated by changing the initial value of random numbers. The average value obtained from 10 trials is in the rage between 10 -4 and 10 -3 and have a log-uniform distribution. More than 10 data are necessary in order to have a meaningful value statistically. And the calculations about early fatality, early injury, risks of early fatality, population dose within 16.0km, population risk for early fatality within 8.0km are performed. In all cases, STC-3 is the dominant contributor (about 70%), and STC-14 is the next important contributor. Therefore, in case of consequence analysis resulting from internal events, the analysis based on STC-3 which is the failure of early containment isolation is very important. Based on the calculation of CCDF for each risk measure, it is shown that CCDF has a slow slope and thus wide probability distribution in cases of early fatality, early injury, total early fatality risk, and total weighted early fatality risk, And in cases of cancer fatality and population dose within 48 km and 80km, the CCDF curve have a steep slope and thus narrow

  12. Development of an Auto-Validation Program for MARS Code Assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Young Jin; Chung, Bub Dong

    2006-01-01

    MARS (Multi-dimensional Analysis of Reactor Safety) code is a best-estimate thermal hydraulic system analysis code developed at KAERI. It is important for a thermal hydraulic computer code to be assessed against theoretical and experimental data to verify and validate the performance and the integrity of the structure, models and correlations of the code. The code assessment efforts for complex thermal hydraulics code such as MARS code can be tedious, time-consuming and require large amount of human intervention in data transfer to see the results in graphic forms. Code developers produce many versions of a code during development and each version need to be verified for integrity. Thus, for MARS code developers, it is desirable to have an automatic way of carrying out the code assessment calculations. In the present work, an Auto-Validation program that carries out the code assessment efforts has been developed. The program uses the user supplied configuration file (with '.vv' extension) which contain commands to read input file, to execute the user selected MARS program, and to generate result graphs. The program can be useful if a same set of code assessments is repeated with different versions of the code. The program is written with the Delphi program language. The program runs under the Microsoft Windows environment

  13. User's guide to the repository intrusion risk evaluation code INTRUDE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nancarrow, D.J.; Thorne, M.C.

    1986-05-01

    The report, commissioned by the Department of the Environment as part of its radioactive waste management research programme, constitutes the user's guide to the repository intrusion risk evaluation code INTRUDE. It provides an explanation of the mathematical basis of the code, the database used and the operation of the code. INTRUDE is designed to facilitate the estimation of individual risks arising from the possibility of intrusion into shallow land burial facilities for radioactive wastes. It considers a comprehensive inventory of up to 65 long-lived radionuclides and produces risk estimates for up to 20 modes of intrusion and up to 50 times of evaluation. (author)

  14. Company Risk-related Disclosures in a Code Law Country: A Synopsis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonas Oliveira

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available This synopsis provides a concise historical contextualisation of current risk disclosure issues, highlights major factors influencing contemporary risk reporting practices, and engages in a reflective overview of four recently published papers on aspects of corporate risk-related disclosures in a code law country, Portugal. The breadthand depth of our analysis is modest. Nonetheless we report findings indicating that risk-related disclosures are inadequate, lack transparency, and compound the difficulty of assessing the risk profile of a company. We contend that recent regulation initiatives have been of dubious effectiveness in improving the quality of riskinformation disclosed. In respect of the Portuguese context, we find that companies disclose risk-related information principally to reduce agency costs and to enhance corporate reputation. We contend that enhanced corporate accountability would be more likely to ensue if further disclosures of relevant risk-related information were mandated. One mechanism to do so would be through regulations recommended by the International Integrated Reporting Committee (IIRC.

  15. International Code Assessment and Applications Program: Annual report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ting, P.; Hanson, R.; Jenks, R.

    1987-03-01

    This is the first annual report of the International Code Assessment and Applications Program (ICAP). The ICAP was organized by the Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research, United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) in 1985. The ICAP is an international cooperative reactor safety research program planned to continue over a period of approximately five years. To date, eleven European and Asian countries/organizations have joined the program through bilateral agreements with the USNRC. Seven proposed agreements are currently under negotiation. The primary mission of the ICAP is to provide independent assessment of the three major advanced computer codes (RELAP5, TRAC-PWR, and TRAC-BWR) developed by the USNRC. However, program activities can be expected to enhance the assessment process throughout member countries. The codes were developed to calculate the reactor plant response to transients and loss-of-coolant accidents. Accurate prediction of normal and abnormal plant response using the codes enhances procedures and regulations used for the safe operation of the plant and also provides technical basis for assessing the safety margin of future reactor plant designs. The ICAP is providing required assessment data that will contribute to quantification of the code uncertainty for each code. The first annual report is devoted to coverage of program activities and accomplishments during the period between April 1985 and March 1987

  16. World-wide risk assessment of the transportation of radioactive materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ericsson, A.M.; Elert, M.

    1983-01-01

    The aim of the project reported in this paper is to develop the means and methods for a risk analysis of the transportation of radioactive materials throughout the world. The project was initiated by the Standing Advisory Group on the Safe Transport of Radioactive Materials (SAGSTRAM) of the IAEA. In 1979 the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate and the IAEA signed an agreement on the development of a model for calculation of the transport risk. Member States of the IAEA are invited to use the model for a risk assessment of the transportation of radioactive materials in their own country. These assessments will be collected and analyzed and a world-wide risk assessment performed. The IAEA has the overall responsibility for the project and administers it. Sweden manages the project and has performed the applied research with the assistance of research support groups which have supplied data and analyses and performed some other parts of the project. An Oversight Committee with participants from eight Member States has reviewed the progress and has given valuable recommendations. It was important that the model had the sophistication and flexibility required for its use by all Member States but still was easy to handle. The risk calculations are performed by the computer code INTERTRAN which is based on the American computer code RADTRAN II developed by Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM. The methodology of the RADTRAN II as well as data and format of the input and output was changed to make the code more internationally oriented. 2 references

  17. Performing Probabilistic Risk Assessment Through RAVEN

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    A. Alfonsi; C. Rabiti; D. Mandelli; J. Cogliati; R. Kinoshita

    2013-06-01

    The Reactor Analysis and Virtual control ENviroment (RAVEN) code is a software tool that acts as the control logic driver and post-processing engine for the newly developed Thermal-Hydraulic code RELAP-7. RAVEN is now a multi-purpose Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) software framework that allows dispatching different functionalities: Derive and actuate the control logic required to simulate the plant control system and operator actions (guided procedures), allowing on-line monitoring/controlling in the Phase Space Perform both Monte-Carlo sampling of random distributed events and Dynamic Event Tree based analysis Facilitate the input/output handling through a Graphical User Interface (GUI) and a post-processing data mining module

  18. RELAP5/MOD3 code manual: Summaries and reviews of independent code assessment reports. Volume 7, Revision 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moore, R.L.; Sloan, S.M.; Schultz, R.R.; Wilson, G.E.

    1996-10-01

    Summaries of RELAP5/MOD3 code assessments, a listing of the assessment matrix, and a chronology of the various versions of the code are given. Results from these code assessments have been used to formulate a compilation of some of the strengths and weaknesses of the code. These results are documented in the report. Volume 7 was designed to be updated periodically and to include the results of the latest code assessments as they become available. Consequently, users of Volume 7 should ensure that they have the latest revision available

  19. Users guide for NRC145-2 accident assessment computer code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pendergast, M.M.

    1982-08-01

    An accident assessment computer code has been developed for use at the Savannah River Plant. This computer code is based upon NRC Regulatory Guide 1.145 which provides guidence for accident assessements for power reactors. The code contains many options so that the user may utilize the code for many different assessments. For example the code can be used for non-nuclear assessments such as Sulpher Dioxide which may be required by the EPA. A discription of the code is contained in DP-1646. This document is a compilation of step-by-step instructions on how to use the code on the SRP IBM 3308 computer. This document consists of a number of tables which contain copies of computer listings. Some of the computer listings are copies of input; other listings give examples of computer output

  20. Development of reliability and probabilistic safety assessment program RiskA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Yican

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • There are four parts in the structure of RiskA. User input part lets users input the PSA model and some necessary data by GUI or model transformation tool. In calculation engine part, fault tree analysis, event tree analysis, uncertainty analysis, sensitivity analysis, importance analysis and failure mode and effects analysis are supplied. User output part outputs the analysis results, user customized reports and some other data. The last part includes reliability database, some other common tools and help documents. • RiskA has several advanced features. Extensible framework makes it easy to add any new functions, making RiskA to be a large platform of reliability and probabilistic safety assessment. It is very fast to analysis fault tree in RiskA because many advanced algorithm improvement were made. Many model formats can be imported and exported, which made the PSA model in the commercial software can be easily transformed to adapt RiskA platform. Web-based co-modeling let several users in different places work together whenever they are online. • The comparison between RiskA and other mature PSA codes (e.g. CAFTA, RiskSpectrum, XFTA) has demonstrated that the calculation and analysis of RiskA is correct and efficient. Based on the development of this code package, many applications of safety and reliability analysis of some research reactors and nuclear power plants were performed. The development of RiskA appears to be of realistic and potential value for academic research and practical operation safety management of nuclear power plants in China and abroad. - Abstract: PSA (probabilistic safety assessment) software, the indispensable tool in nuclear safety assessment, has been widely used. An integrated reliability and PSA program named RiskA has been developed by FDS Team. RiskA supplies several standard PSA modules including fault tree analysis, event tree analysis, uncertainty analysis, failure mode and effect analysis and reliability

  1. PRESTO low-level waste transport and risk assessment code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Little, C.A.; Fields, D.E.; McDowell-Boyer, L.M.; Emerson, C.J.

    1981-01-01

    PRESTO (Prediction of Radiation Effects from Shallow Trench Operations) is a computer code developed under US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) funding to evaluate possible health effects from shallow land burial trenches. The model is intended to be generic and to assess radionuclide transport, ensuing exposure, and health impact to a static local population for a 1000-y period following the end of burial operations. Human exposure scenarios considered by the model include normal releases (including leaching and operational spillage), human intrusion, and site farming or reclamation. Pathways and processes of transit from the trench to an individual or population inlude: groundwater transport, overland flow, erosion, surface water dilution, resuspension, atmospheric transport, deposition, inhalation, and ingestion of contaminated beef, milk, crops, and water. Both population doses and individual doses are calculated as well as doses to the intruder and farmer. Cumulative health effects in terms of deaths from cancer are calculated for the population over the thousand-year period using a life-table approach. Data bases are being developed for three extant shallow land burial sites: Barnwell, South Carolina; Beatty, Nevada; and West Valley, New York

  2. Challenges in Risk Assessment: Quantitative Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Uyttendaele, Mieke; De Meulenaer, Bruno

    2016-01-01

    The process of risk analysis consists out of three components, risk assessment, risk management and risk communication. These components are internationally well spread by Codex Alimentarius Commission as being the basis for setting science based standards, criteria on food safety hazards, e.g. setting maximum limits of mycotoxins in foodstuffs. However, the technical component risk assessment is hard to elaborate and to understand. Key in a risk assessment is the translation of biological or...

  3. A perspective of PC-based probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sattison, M.B.; Rasmuson, D.M.; Robinson, R.C.; Russell, K.D.; Van Siclen, V.S.

    1987-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) information has been under-utilized in the past due to the large effort required to input the PRA data and the large expense of the computers needed to run PRA codes. The microcomputer-based Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) and the System Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) System, under development at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, have greatly enhanced the ability of managers to use PRA techniques in their decision-making. IRRAS is a tool that allows an analyst to create, modify, update, and reanalyze a plant PRA to keep the risk assessment current with the plant's configuration and operation. The SARA system is used to perform sensitivity studies on the results of a PRA. This type of analysis can be used to evaluate proposed changes to a plant or its operation. The success of these two software projects demonstrate that risk information can be made readily available to those that need it. This is the first step in the development of a true risk management capability

  4. Organization of Risk Analysis Codes for Living Evaluations (ORACLE)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Batt, D.L.; MacDonald, P.E.; Sattison, M.B.; Vesely, E.

    1987-01-01

    ORACLE (Organization of Risk Analysis Codes for Living Evaluations) is an integration concept for using risk-based information in United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) applications. Portions of ORACLE are being developed at the Idaho Nationale Engineering Laboratory for the USNRC. The ORACLE concept consists of related databases, software, user interfaces, processes, and quality control checks allowing a wide variety of regulatory problems and activities to be addressed using current, updated PRA information. The ORACLE concept provides for smooth transitions between one code and the next without pre- or post-processing. (orig.)

  5. Methodology, status and plans for development and assessment of Cathare code

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bestion, D.; Barre, F.; Faydide, B. [CEA - Grenoble (France)

    1997-07-01

    This paper presents the methodology, status and plans for the development, assessment and uncertainty evaluation of the Cathare code. Cathare is a thermalhydraulic code developed by CEA (DRN), IPSN, EDF and FRAMATOME for PWR safety analysis. First, the status of the code development and assessment is presented. The general strategy used for the development and the assessment of the code is presented. Analytical experiments with separate effect tests, and component tests are used for the development and the validation of closure laws. Successive Revisions of constitutive laws are implemented in successive Versions of the code and assessed. System tests or integral tests are used to validate the general consistency of the Revision. Each delivery of a code Version + Revision is fully assessed and documented. A methodology is being developed to determine the uncertainty on all constitutive laws of the code using calculations of many analytical tests and applying the Discrete Adjoint Sensitivity Method (DASM). At last, the plans for the future developments of the code are presented. They concern the optimization of the code performance through parallel computing - the code will be used for real time full scope plant simulators - the coupling with many other codes (neutronic codes, severe accident codes), the application of the code for containment thermalhydraulics. Also, physical improvements are required in the field of low pressure transients and in the modeling for the 3-D model.

  6. Evaluation the total exposure of soil sample in Adaya site and the obtain risk assessments for the worker by Res Rad code program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahadi, A. M.; Khadim, A. A. N.; Ibrahim, Z. H.; Ali, S. A.

    2012-12-01

    The present study aims to evaluation the total exposure to the worker in Adaya site risk assessment by using Res Rad code program. The study including 5 areas soil sample calculate in the site and analysis it by High Pure Germaniums (Hg) system made (CANBERRA) company. The soil sample simulation by (Res Rad) code program by inter the radioactive isotope concentration and the specification of the contamination zone area, depth and the cover depth of it. The total exposure of same sample was about 9 mSv/year and the (Heast 2001 Morbidity, FGR13 Morbidity) about 2.045 state every 100 worker in the year. There are simple different between Heast 2001 Morbidity and FGR13 Morbidity according to the Dose Conversion Factor (DCF) use it. The (FGR13 Morbidity) about 2.041 state every 100 worker in the year. (Author)

  7. CQUESTRA, a risk and performance assessment code for geological sequestration of carbon dioxide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    LeNeveu, D.M.

    2008-01-01

    A computationally efficient semi-analytical code, CQUESTRA, has been developed for probabilistic risk assessment and rapid screening of potential sites for geological sequestration of carbon dioxide. The rate of dissolution and leakage from a trapped underground pool of carbon dioxide is determined. The trapped carbon dioxide could be mixed with hydrocarbons and other components to form a buoyant phase. The program considers potential mechanisms for escape from the geological formations such as the movement of the buoyant phase through failed seals in wellbores, the annulus around wellbores and through open fractures in the caprock. Plume animations of dissolved carbon dioxide in formation water around the wellbores are provided. Solubility, density and viscosity of the buoyant phase are determined by equations of state. Advection, dispersion, diffusion, buoyancy, aquifer flow rates and local formation fluid pressure are taken into account in the modeling of the carbon dioxide movement. Results from a hypothetical example simulation based on data from the Williston basin near Weyburn, Saskatchewan, indicate that this site is potentially a viable candidate for carbon dioxide sequestration. Sensitivity analysis of CQUESTRA indicates that criteria such as siting below aquifers with large flow rates and siting in reservoirs having fluid pressure below the pressure of the formations above can promote complete dissolution of the carbon dioxide during movement toward the surface, thereby preventing release to the biosphere. Formation of very small carbon dioxide bubbles within the fluid in the wellbores can also lead to complete dissolution

  8. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis using probabilistic system assessment code. 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Honma, Toshimitsu; Sasahara, Takashi.

    1993-10-01

    This report presents the results obtained when applying the probabilistic system assessment code under development to the PSACOIN Level 0 intercomparison exercise organized by the Probabilistic System Assessment Code User Group in the Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) of OECD. This exercise is one of a series designed to compare and verify probabilistic codes in the performance assessment of geological radioactive waste disposal facilities. The computations were performed using the Monte Carlo sampling code PREP and post-processor code USAMO. The submodels in the waste disposal system were described and coded with the specification of the exercise. Besides the results required for the exercise, further additional uncertainty and sensitivity analyses were performed and the details of these are also included. (author)

  9. Radiological risk assessment for radioactive contamination at landfill site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Devgun, J.S.

    1990-01-01

    A limited-scope preliminary assessment of radiological risk has been conducted for a landfill site where radioactive residues resulting from past uranium ore processing operations are present. Potential radiation doses to an individual under different scenarios have been predicted using the RESRAD computer code. The assessment provides useful input to the remedial action planning for the site that is currently underway. 7 refs., 6 figs., 3 tabs

  10. PRESTO-II: a low-level waste environmental transport and risk assessment code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fields, D.E.; Emerson, C.J.; Chester, R.O.; Little, C.A.; Hiromoto, G.

    1986-04-01

    PRESTO-II (Prediction of Radiation Effects from Shallow Trench Operations) is a computer code designed for the evaluation of possible health effects from shallow-land and, waste-disposal trenches. The model is intended to serve as a non-site-specific screening model for assessing radionuclide transport, ensuing exposure, and health impacts to a static local population for a 1000-year period following the end of disposal operations. Human exposure scenarios considered include normal releases (including leaching and operational spillage), human intrusion, and limited site farming or reclamation. Pathways and processes of transit from the trench to an individual or population include ground-water transport, overland flow, erosion, surface water dilution, suspension, atmospheric transport, deposition, inhalation, external exposure, and ingestion of contaminated beef, milk, crops, and water. Both population doses and individual doses, as well as doses to the intruder and farmer, may be calculated. Cumulative health effects in terms of cancer deaths are calculated for the population over the 1000-year period using a life-table approach. Data are included for three example sites: Barnwell, South Carolina; Beatty, Nevada; and West Valley, New York. A code listing and example input for each of the three sites are included in the appendices to this report

  11. PRESTO-II: a low-level waste environmental transport and risk assessment code

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fields, D.E.; Emerson, C.J.; Chester, R.O.; Little, C.A.; Hiromoto, G.

    1986-04-01

    PRESTO-II (Prediction of Radiation Effects from Shallow Trench Operations) is a computer code designed for the evaluation of possible health effects from shallow-land and, waste-disposal trenches. The model is intended to serve as a non-site-specific screening model for assessing radionuclide transport, ensuing exposure, and health impacts to a static local population for a 1000-year period following the end of disposal operations. Human exposure scenarios considered include normal releases (including leaching and operational spillage), human intrusion, and limited site farming or reclamation. Pathways and processes of transit from the trench to an individual or population include ground-water transport, overland flow, erosion, surface water dilution, suspension, atmospheric transport, deposition, inhalation, external exposure, and ingestion of contaminated beef, milk, crops, and water. Both population doses and individual doses, as well as doses to the intruder and farmer, may be calculated. Cumulative health effects in terms of cancer deaths are calculated for the population over the 1000-year period using a life-table approach. Data are included for three example sites: Barnwell, South Carolina; Beatty, Nevada; and West Valley, New York. A code listing and example input for each of the three sites are included in the appendices to this report.

  12. Development of environmental dose assessment system (EDAS) code of PC version

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Taki, Mitsumasa; Kikuchi, Masamitsu; Kobayashi, Hideo; Yamaguchi, Takenori [Japan Atomic Energy Research Inst., Tokai, Ibaraki (Japan). Tokai Research Establishment

    2003-05-01

    A computer code (EDAS) was developed to assess the public dose for the safety assessment to get the license of nuclear reactor operation. This code system is used for the safety analysis of public around the nuclear reactor in normal operation and severe accident. This code was revised and composed for personal computer user according to the Nuclear Safety Guidelines reflected the ICRP1990 recommendation. These guidelines are revised by Nuclear Safety Commission on March, 2001, which are 'Weather analysis guideline for the safety assessment of nuclear power reactor', 'Public dose around the facility assessment guideline corresponding to the objective value for nuclear power light water reactor' and 'Public dose assessment guideline for safety review of nuclear power light water reactor'. This code has been already opened for public user by JAERI, and English version code and user manual are also prepared. This English version code is helpful for international cooperation concerning the nuclear safety assessment with JAERI. (author)

  13. International assessment of PCA codes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neymotin, L.; Lui, C.; Glynn, J.; Archarya, S.

    1993-11-01

    Over the past three years (1991-1993), an extensive international exercise for intercomparison of a group of six Probabilistic Consequence Assessment (PCA) codes was undertaken. The exercise was jointly sponsored by the Commission of European Communities (CEC) and OECD Nuclear Energy Agency. This exercise was a logical continuation of a similar effort undertaken by OECD/NEA/CSNI in 1979-1981. The PCA codes are currently used by different countries for predicting radiological health and economic consequences of severe accidents at nuclear power plants (and certain types of non-reactor nuclear facilities) resulting in releases of radioactive materials into the atmosphere. The codes participating in the exercise were: ARANO (Finland), CONDOR (UK), COSYMA (CEC), LENA (Sweden), MACCS (USA), and OSCAAR (Japan). In parallel with this inter-code comparison effort, two separate groups performed a similar set of calculations using two of the participating codes, MACCS and COSYMA. Results of the intercode and inter-MACCS comparisons are presented in this paper. The MACCS group included four participants: GREECE: Institute of Nuclear Technology and Radiation Protection, NCSR Demokritos; ITALY: ENEL, ENEA/DISP, and ENEA/NUC-RIN; SPAIN: Universidad Politecnica de Madrid (UPM) and Consejo de Seguridad Nuclear; USA: Brookhaven National Laboratory, US NRC and DOE

  14. A validation study of the intertran model for assessing risks of transportation accidents: Road transport of uranium hexafluoride

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tomachevsky, E.G.; Ringot, C.; Pages, P.; Hubert, P.

    1985-06-01

    The INTERTRAN code was developed by the IAEA in order to provide member states with a simple and rapide method of assessing the risk involved in the transportation of radioactive materials and one which was applicable on a worldwide scale. Before being used, this code must be validated and the CEA thus compared the results obtained with the conventional risk assessment methods used by the CEPN with those derived from INTERTRAN. This paper gives the results of the studies made on the subject of road transportation of uranium hexafluoride in France. The conventional accident risk assessment method gave a figure of 8.84 x 10 -4 deaths/year, whereas INTERTRAN announces 1.78 x 10 -2 . To these figures should be added 3.38 x 10 -2 deaths/year, which is the intrinsic road risk, whatever the goods carried. In relation to conventional estimates, the INTERTRAN forecasts are five times lower for the U risk and twenty times higher for the HF risk. The chemical risk is indeed the most prevalent one in this case. Other comparisons are needed to validate this code

  15. Developments on ASME Code Cases to Risk-Informed Repair/Replacement Activities in Support of Risk-Informed Regulation Initiatives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Balkey, Kenneth R.; Holston, William C.

    2002-01-01

    ASME Code Case N-658, 'Risk-Informed Safety Classification for Use in Risk-Informed Repair/Replacement Activities' and Code Case N-660, 'Alternative Repair/Replacement Requirements For Items Classified In Accordance With Risk-Informed Processes' are being completed to expand the breadth of risk-informed requirements for pressure-retaining items. This initiative, which is built from prior ASME Section XI risk-informed inservice inspection developments over the past decade, has been undertaken in conjunction with U.S. risk-informed regulation efforts. The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is working with the industry on risk informing Title 10 Code of Federal Regulations Part 50 (10CFR50). The Nuclear Regulatory Commission's basic proposal is to allow modification of some of the special treatment requirements of 10CFR50. Their effort is proceeding via an Advanced Notice of Public Rulemaking, March 3, 2000, and an announcement of Availability of Draft Rule Wording, November 29, 2001, to add 10 CFR 50.69, 'Risk-Informed Treatment of Structures, Systems and Components'. A parallel task by the Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI) to develop a guideline on how to implement the results of the rulemaking is also well underway via NEI 00-04 (Draft Revision B), 'Option 2 Implementation Guideline', May 2001. This paper summarizes the content and status of approval of the proposed ASME Code Cases, including how they relate to the above NRC and NEI efforts. Some initial results from trial application of the Code Cases will also be cited. (authors)

  16. A field study comparing two methods of transportation risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harmon, M.F.; Brey, R.R.; Gesell, T.F.; Oberg, S.G.

    1996-01-01

    RADTRAN 4 is a computer code used for; assessing risks associated with the transportation of nuclear materials. The code employs the common modeling practice of using default values for input variables to simplify the modeling of complex scenarios, thus producing conservative final risk determinations. To better address local public concerns it is of interest to quantify the introduced conservatism by taking a site-specific approach to radiation risk assessment. With RISKIND, incident-free and accident condition doses were calculated for two suburban population groups using both default input parameters; and site-specific values to describe population demographics of regions in Pocatello, Idaho, along the I-15 corridor. The use of site-specific parameters resulted in incident-free doses ranging from the same order of magnitude to one order of magnitude less than the doses calculated with default input parameters. Correcting accident condition doses for the age distribution of the populations and employing site-specific weather data resulted in doses 1.1 times lower than estimated using default input parameters. Dose-risks calculated with RISKIND for the two population groups using site-specific data were of the same order of magnitude as the risk calculated using RADTRAN 4 for the suburban population described in DOE/EIS-0203-D. This study revealed in one specific application that use of default and site-specific parameters resulted in comparable dose estimates. If this tendency were to hold generally true over other environments and model variables, then risk assessors might prefer to select codes on the basis of criteria such as (1) the number of variables to select from; (2) ability to calculate consequences directly, and (3) outputs geared to addressing public concerns

  17. Failure rate data for fusion safety and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cadwallader, L.C.

    1993-01-01

    The Fusion Safety Program (FSP) at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) conducts safety research in materials, chemical reactions, safety analysis, risk assessment, and in component research and development to support existing magnetic fusion experiments and also to promote safety in the design of future experiments. One of the areas of safety research is applying probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methods to fusion experiments. To apply PRA, we need a fusion-relevant radiological dose code and a component failure rate data base. This paper describes the FSP effort to develop a failure rate data base for fusion-specific components

  18. Identification of Potential Hazard using Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sari, R. M.; Syahputri, K.; Rizkya, I.; Siregar, I.

    2017-03-01

    This research was conducted in the paper production’s company. These Paper products will be used as a cigarette paper. Along in the production’s process, Company provides the machines and equipment that operated by workers. During the operations, all workers may potentially injured. It known as a potential hazard. Hazard identification and risk assessment is one part of a safety and health program in the stage of risk management. This is very important as part of efforts to prevent occupational injuries and diseases resulting from work. This research is experiencing a problem that is not the identification of potential hazards and risks that would be faced by workers during the running production process. The purpose of this study was to identify the potential hazards by using hazard identification and risk assessment methods. Risk assessment is done using severity criteria and the probability of an accident. According to the research there are 23 potential hazard that occurs with varying severity and probability. Then made the determination Risk Assessment Code (RAC) for each potential hazard, and gained 3 extreme risks, 10 high risks, 6 medium risks and 3 low risks. We have successfully identified potential hazard using RAC.

  19. Risk assessment basis for WWER-440 spent nuclear fuel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lascek, M.; Necas, V.; Darilek, P.

    2000-01-01

    The most problematic part of nuclear fuel cycle is its back end. Various high level waste management are available or under development (final disposal of spent assemblies in deep repository, reprocessing, partitioning, transmutation,...). Application of any method is connected with production of characteristic high level waste (amount, radio-toxicity, form,...) as well as various risk level for the environment and mankind. Strategy selection should be based on risk analysis also. The paper deals with assessment of risk, that is associated with WWER-440 spent fuel inventory. In order to evaluate the risk, the accumulated amount of the radioactive inventory is calculated and the decay of the long-lived radionuclides is computed by ORIGEN code. Analysis is oriented on calculation of hazard indexes for assessing the relative hazards of actinides, toxic and long-lived radionuclides. (Authors)

  20. RADTRAN 5: A computer code for transportation risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neuhauser, K.S.; Kanipe, F.L.

    1991-01-01

    RADTRAN 5 is a computer code developed at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) in Albuquerque, NM, to estimate radiological and nonradiological risks of radioactive materials transportation. RADTRAN 5 is written in ANSI Standard FORTRAN 77 and contains significant advances in the methodology for route-specific analysis first developed by SNL for RADTRAN 4 (Neuhauser and Kanipe, 1992). Like the previous RADTRAN codes, RADTRAN 5 contains two major modules for incident-free and accident risk amlysis, respectively. All commercially important transportation modes may be analyzed with RADTRAN 5: highway by combination truck; highway by light-duty vehicle; rail; barge; ocean-going ship; cargo air; and passenger air

  1. Development of environmental dose assessment system (EDAS) code of PC version

    CERN Document Server

    Taki, M; Kobayashi, H; Yamaguchi, T

    2003-01-01

    A computer code (EDAS) was developed to assess the public dose for the safety assessment to get the license of nuclear reactor operation. This code system is used for the safety analysis of public around the nuclear reactor in normal operation and severe accident. This code was revised and composed for personal computer user according to the Nuclear Safety Guidelines reflected the ICRP1990 recommendation. These guidelines are revised by Nuclear Safety Commission on March, 2001, which are 'Weather analysis guideline for the safety assessment of nuclear power reactor', 'Public dose around the facility assessment guideline corresponding to the objective value for nuclear power light water reactor' and 'Public dose assessment guideline for safety review of nuclear power light water reactor'. This code has been already opened for public user by JAERI, and English version code and user manual are also prepared. This English version code is helpful for international cooperation concerning the nuclear safety assessme...

  2. Melodie: a code for risk assessment of waste repositories in deep geological formations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lewi, J.; Mejon-Goula, M.J.; Cernes, A.

    1988-10-01

    In order to perform the safety evaluation of nuclear waste repositories, a global model, called MELODIE, is currently developed at the CEA/IPSN, in collaboration with order CEA teams and non-CEA like ENSMP (Ecole Nationale Superieure des Mines de Paris). The version now in operation allows to assess the radiological consequences due to a repository located in a granitic formation on a period of several hundred thousands of years. The calculations are based on models which represent the physical and chemical phenomena in connection with: the release of the radionuclides from the waste matrixes and through the engineered barriers; their transfer through the geosphere; their behaviour in the biosphere. Three separate models have been developed for each of these subjects; they are integrated in the code through a modular flexible dataprocessing structure which calls these computational modules with their optimal time step and extracts the data from the data files where they are stored. In addition, a sensitivity and uncertainty analysis algorithm has been implemented into the code. It allows to evaluate the influence of the parameter values on the result and to assess the global uncertainty on it. After a quite general description of MELODIE, the calculations performed with it in the PAGIS (CCE) exercise: global dose calculations and ranking of the most important parameters through the sensitivity analysis, are presented. The studies performed only with the geosphere module of MELODIE (METIS), especially the participation to the HYDROCOIN (OECD/NEA) exercise, are also noticed. In addition, the main future development axes of MELODIE are outlined

  3. Cracking the Code: Assessing Institutional Compliance with the Australian Code for the Responsible Conduct of Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, Suzanne E.

    2010-01-01

    This paper provides a review of institutional authorship policies as required by the "Australian Code for the Responsible Conduct of Research" (the "Code") (National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC), the Australian Research Council (ARC) & Universities Australia (UA) 2007), and assesses them for Code compliance.…

  4. Analyses to support development of risk-informed separation distances for hydrogen codes and standards.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    LaChance, Jeffrey L.; Houf, William G. (Sandia National Laboratories, Livermore, CA); Fluer, Inc., Paso Robels, CA; Fluer, Larry (Fluer, Inc., Paso Robels, CA); Middleton, Bobby

    2009-03-01

    The development of a set of safety codes and standards for hydrogen facilities is necessary to ensure they are designed and operated safely. To help ensure that a hydrogen facility meets an acceptable level of risk, code and standard development organizations are tilizing risk-informed concepts in developing hydrogen codes and standards.

  5. MARS CODE MANAUAL VOLUME IV - Developmental Assessment Report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chung, Bub Dong; Jeong, Jae Jun; Hwang, Moon Kyu; Lee, Won Jae; Lee, Young Jin; Lee, Seung Wook; Kim, Kyung Doo; Bae, Sung Won

    2010-02-01

    Korea Advanced Energy Research Institute (KAERI) conceived and started the development of MARS code with the main objective of producing a state-of-the-art realistic thermal hydraulic systems analysis code with multi-dimensional analysis capability. MARS achieves this objective by very tightly integrating the one dimensional RELAP5/MOD3 with the multi-dimensional COBRA-TF codes. The method of integration of the two codes is based on the dynamic link library techniques, and the system pressure equation matrices of both codes are implicitly integrated and solved simultaneously. In addition, the Equation-Of-State (EOS) for the light water was unified by replacing the EOS of COBRA-TF by that of the RELAP5. This assessment manual provides a complete list of code assessment results of the MARS code for various conceptual problem, separate effect test and integral effect test. From these validation procedures, the soundness and accuracy of the MARS code has been confirmed. The overall structure of the input is modeled on the structure of the RELAP5 and as such the layout of the manual is very similar to that of the RELAP. This similitude to RELAP5 input is intentional as this input scheme will allow minimum modification between the inputs of RELAP5 and MARS3.1. MARS3.1 development team would like to express its appreciation to the RELAP5 Development Team and the USNRC for making this manual possible

  6. The Vulnerability Assessment Code for Physical Protection System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jang, Sung Soon; Yoo, Ho Sik

    2007-01-01

    To neutralize the increasing terror threats, nuclear facilities have strong physical protection system (PPS). PPS includes detectors, door locks, fences, regular guard patrols, and a hot line to a nearest military force. To design an efficient PPS and to fully operate it, vulnerability assessment process is required. Evaluating PPS of a nuclear facility is complicate process and, hence, several assessment codes have been developed. The estimation of adversary sequence interruption (EASI) code analyzes vulnerability along a single intrusion path. To evaluate many paths to a valuable asset in an actual facility, the systematic analysis of vulnerability to intrusion (SAVI) code was developed. KAERI improved SAVI and made the Korean analysis of vulnerability to intrusion (KAVI) code. Existing codes (SAVI and KAVI) have limitations in representing the distance of a facility because they use the simplified model of a PPS called adversary sequence diagram. In adversary sequence diagram the position of doors, sensors and fences is described just as the locating area. Thus, the distance between elements is inaccurate and we cannot reflect the range effect of sensors. In this abstract, we suggest accurate and intuitive vulnerability assessment based on raster map modeling of PPS. The raster map of PPS accurately represents the relative position of elements and, thus, the range effect of sensor can be easily incorporable. Most importantly, the raster map is easy to understand

  7. LISA: A performance assessment code for geological repositories of radioactive waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bertozzi, G.; Saltelli, A.

    1985-01-01

    LISA, developed at JRC-Ispra, is a statistical code, which calculates the radiation exposures and risks associated with radionuclide releases from geological repositories of nuclear waste. The assessment methodology is described briefly. It requires that a number of probabilistic components be quantified and introduced in the analysis; the results are thus expressed in terms of risk. The subjective judgment of experts may be necessary to quantify the probabilities of occurrence of rare geological events. Because of large uncertainties in input data, statistical treatment of the Monte Carlo type is utilized for the analysis; thus, the output from LISA is obtained in the form of distributions. A few results of an application to a probabilistic scenario for a repository mined in a clay bed are illustrated

  8. Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... 11/12/2014 Risk Calculator About the Tool Colorectal Cancer Risk Factors Download SAS and Gauss Code Page ... Rectal Cancer: Prevention, Genetics, Causes Tests to Detect Colorectal Cancer and Polyps Cancer Risk Prediction Resources Update November ...

  9. On the automated assessment of nuclear reactor systems code accuracy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kunz, Robert F.; Kasmala, Gerald F.; Mahaffy, John H.; Murray, Christopher J.

    2002-01-01

    An automated code assessment program (ACAP) has been developed to provide quantitative comparisons between nuclear reactor systems (NRS) code results and experimental measurements. The tool provides a suite of metrics for quality of fit to specific data sets, and the means to produce one or more figures of merit (FOM) for a code, based on weighted averages of results from the batch execution of a large number of code-experiment and code-code data comparisons. Accordingly, this tool has the potential to significantly streamline the verification and validation (V and V) processes in NRS code development environments which are characterized by rapidly evolving software, many contributing developers and a large and growing body of validation data. In this paper, a survey of data conditioning and analysis techniques is summarized which focuses on their relevance to NRS code accuracy assessment. A number of methods are considered for their applicability to the automated assessment of the accuracy of NRS code simulations. A variety of data types and computational modeling methods are considered from a spectrum of mathematical and engineering disciplines. The goal of the survey was to identify needs, issues and techniques to be considered in the development of an automated code assessment procedure, to be used in United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) advanced thermal-hydraulic T/H code consolidation efforts. The ACAP software was designed based in large measure on the findings of this survey. An overview of this tool is summarized and several NRS data applications are provided. The paper is organized as follows: The motivation for this work is first provided by background discussion that summarizes the relevance of this subject matter to the nuclear reactor industry. Next, the spectrum of NRS data types are classified into categories, in order to provide a basis for assessing individual comparison methods. Then, a summary of the survey is provided, where each

  10. Experience with COSYMA in an international intercomparison of probabilistic accident consequence assessment codes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hasemann, I.; Jones, J.A.; Steen, J. van der; Wonderen, E. van

    1996-01-01

    The Commission of the European Communities and the Nuclear Energy Agency of the OECD have organized an international exercise to compare the predictions of accident consequence assessment codes, and to identify those features of the models which lead to differences in the predicted results. Alongside this, a further exercise was undertaken in which the COSYMA code was used independently by several different organizations. Some of the findings of the COSYMA users' exercise are described that have general applications to accident consequence assessments. A number of areas are identified in which further work on accident consequence models may be justified. These areas, which are also of interest for codes other than COSYMA, are (a) the calculation and averaging of doses and risks to people sheltered in different types of buildings, particularly with respect to the evaluation of early health effects; (b) the modeling of long-duration releases and their description as a series of shorter releases; (c) meteorological sampling for results at a certain location, specifically for use with trajectory models of atmospheric dispersion; and (d) aspects of calculating probabilities of consequences at a point

  11. Code boiler and pressure vessel life assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farr, J.R.

    1992-01-01

    In the United States of America and in Canada, laws and controls for determining life assessment for continued operation of equipment exist only for those pressure vessels built to Section III and evaluated according to Section XI. In this presentation, some of those considerations which are made in the USA and Canada for deciding on life or condition assessment of boilers and pressure vessels designed and constructed to other sections of the ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code are reviewed. Life assessment or condition assesssment is essential in determining what is necessary for continued operation. With no ASME rules being adopted by laws or regulations, other than OSHA in the USA and similar environmental controls in Canada, to control life assessment for continued operation, the equipment owner must decide if assessment is to be done and how much to do. Some of those considerations are reviewed along with methods and procedures to make an assessment along with a discussion of where the ASME B and PV Code currently stands regarding continued operation. (orig.)

  12. Validation and verification plan for safety and PRA codes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ades, M.J.; Crowe, R.D.; Toffer, H.

    1991-04-01

    This report discusses a verification and validation (V ampersand V) plan for computer codes used for safety analysis and probabilistic risk assessment calculations. The present plan fulfills the commitments by Westinghouse Savannah River Company (WSRC) to the Department of Energy Savannah River Office (DOE-SRO) to bring the essential safety analysis and probabilistic risk assessment codes in compliance with verification and validation requirements

  13. EPRI nuclear fuel-cycle accident risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1981-01-01

    The present results of the nuclear fuel-cycle accident risk assessment conducted by the Electric Power Research Institute show that the total risk contribution of the nuclear fuel cycle is only approx. 1% of the accident risk of the power plant; hence, with little error, the accident risk of nuclear electric power is essentially that of the power plant itself. The power-plant risk, assuming a very large usage of nuclear power by the year 2005 is only approx. 0.5% of the radiological risk of natural background. The smallness of the fuel-cycle risk relative to the power-plant risk may be attributed to the lack of internal energy to drive an accident and the small amount of dispersible material. This work aims at a realistic assessment of the process hazards, the effectiveness of confinement and mitigation systems and procedures, and the associated likelihood of errors and the estimated size of errors. The primary probabilistic estimation tool is fault-tree analysis, with the release source terms calculated using physicochemical processes. Doses and health effects are calculated with CRAC (Consequences of Reactor Accident Code). No evacuation or mitigation is considered; source terms may be conservative through the assumption of high fuel burnup (40,000 MWd/t) and short cooling period (90 to 150 d); high-efficiency particulate air filter efficiencies are derived from experiments

  14. Participation in the international comparison of probabilistic consequence assessment codes organized by OECD/NEA and CEC. Final Report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rossi, J.

    1994-02-01

    Probabilistic Consequence Assessment (PCA) methods are exploited not only in risk evaluation but also to study alternative design features, reactor siting recommendations and to obtain acceptable dose criteria by the radiation safety authorities. The models are programmed into computer codes for these kind of assessment. To investigate the quality and competence of different models, OECD/NEA and CEC organized the international code comparison exercise, which was participated by the organizations from 15 countries. There were seven codes participating in the exercise. The objectives of the code comparison exercise were to compare the results by the codes, to contribute to PCA code quality assurance, to harmonize the codes, to provide a forum for discussion on various approaches and to produce the report on the exercise. The project started in 1991 and the results of the calculations were completed in autumn 1992. The international report consists of two parts: the Overview Report for decision makers and the supporting detailed Technical Report. The results of the project are reviewed as an user of the ARANO-programme of VTT and trends of it's further development are indicated in this report. (orig.) (11 refs., 13 figs., 4 tabs.)

  15. Safety analysis and risk assessment handbook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, V.L.; Colwell, R.G.; Dickey, R.L.

    1997-01-01

    This Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) provides guidance to the safety analyst at the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site (RFETS) in the preparation of safety analyses and risk assessments. Although the older guidance (the Rocky Flats Risk Assessment Guide) continues to be used for updating the Final Safety Analysis Reports developed in the mid-1980s, this new guidance is used with all new authorization basis documents. With the mission change at RFETS came the need to establish new authorization basis documents for its facilities, whose functions had changed. The methodology and databases for performing the evaluations that support the new authorization basis documents had to be standardized, to avoid the use of different approaches and/or databases for similar accidents in different facilities. This handbook presents this new standardized approach. The handbook begins with a discussion of the requirements of the different types of authorization basis documents and how to choose the one appropriate for the facility to be evaluated. It then walks the analyst through the process of identifying all the potential hazards in the facility, classifying them, and choosing the ones that need to be analyzed further. It then discusses the methods for evaluating accident initiation and progression and covers the basic steps in a safety analysis, including consequence and frequency binning and risk ranking. The handbook lays out standardized approaches for determining the source terms of the various accidents (including airborne release fractions, leakpath factors, etc.), the atmospheric dispersion factors appropriate for Rocky Flats, and the methods for radiological and chemical consequence assessments. The radiological assessments use a radiological open-quotes templateclose quotes, a spreadsheet that incorporates the standard values of parameters, whereas the chemical assessments use the standard codes ARCHIE and ALOHA

  16. Characteristics of the graded wildlife dose assessment code K-BIOTA and its application

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keum, Dong Kwon; Jun, In; Lim, Kwang Muk; Kim, Byeong Ho; Choi, Yong Ho [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-12-15

    This paper describes the technical background for the Korean wildlife radiation dose assessment code, K-BIOTA, and the summary of its application. The K-BIOTA applies the graded approaches of 3 levels including the screening assessment (Level 1 and 2), and the detailed assessment based on the site specific data (Level 3). The screening level assessment is a preliminary step to determine whether the detailed assessment is needed, and calculates the dose rate for the grouped organisms, rather than an individual biota. In the Level 1 assessment, the risk quotient (RQ) is calculated by comparing the actual media concentration with the environmental media concentration limit (EMCL) derived from a bench-mark screening reference dose rate. If RQ for the Level 1 assessment is less than 1, it can be determined that the ecosystem would maintain its integrity, and the assessment is terminated. If the RQ is greater than 1, the Level 2 assessment, which calculates RQ using the average value of the concentration ratio (CR) and equilibrium distribution coefficient (Kd) for the grouped organisms, is carried out for the more realistic assessment. Thus, the Level 2 assessment is less conservative than the Level 1 assessment. If RQ for the Level 2 assessment is less than 1, it can be determined that the ecosystem would maintain its integrity, and the assessment is terminated. If the RQ is greater than 1, the Level 3 assessment is performed for the detailed assessment. In the Level 3 assessment, the radiation dose for the representative organism of a site is calculated by using the site specific data of occupancy factor, CR and Kd. In addition, the K-BIOTA allows the uncertainty analysis of the dose rate on CR, Kd and environmental medium concentration among input parameters optionally in the Level 3 assessment. The four probability density functions of normal, lognormal, uniform and exponential distribution can be applied. The applicability of the code was tested through the

  17. Characteristics of the graded wildlife dose assessment code K-BIOTA and its application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keum, Dong Kwon; Jun, In; Lim, Kwang Muk; Kim, Byeong Ho; Choi, Yong Ho

    2015-01-01

    This paper describes the technical background for the Korean wildlife radiation dose assessment code, K-BIOTA, and the summary of its application. The K-BIOTA applies the graded approaches of 3 levels including the screening assessment (Level 1 and 2), and the detailed assessment based on the site specific data (Level 3). The screening level assessment is a preliminary step to determine whether the detailed assessment is needed, and calculates the dose rate for the grouped organisms, rather than an individual biota. In the Level 1 assessment, the risk quotient (RQ) is calculated by comparing the actual media concentration with the environmental media concentration limit (EMCL) derived from a bench-mark screening reference dose rate. If RQ for the Level 1 assessment is less than 1, it can be determined that the ecosystem would maintain its integrity, and the assessment is terminated. If the RQ is greater than 1, the Level 2 assessment, which calculates RQ using the average value of the concentration ratio (CR) and equilibrium distribution coefficient (Kd) for the grouped organisms, is carried out for the more realistic assessment. Thus, the Level 2 assessment is less conservative than the Level 1 assessment. If RQ for the Level 2 assessment is less than 1, it can be determined that the ecosystem would maintain its integrity, and the assessment is terminated. If the RQ is greater than 1, the Level 3 assessment is performed for the detailed assessment. In the Level 3 assessment, the radiation dose for the representative organism of a site is calculated by using the site specific data of occupancy factor, CR and Kd. In addition, the K-BIOTA allows the uncertainty analysis of the dose rate on CR, Kd and environmental medium concentration among input parameters optionally in the Level 3 assessment. The four probability density functions of normal, lognormal, uniform and exponential distribution can be applied. The applicability of the code was tested through the

  18. A computer code for Cohort Analysis of Increased Risks of Death (CAIRD). Technical report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cook, J.R.; Bunger, B.M.; Barrick, M.K.

    1978-06-01

    The most serious health risk confronting individuals exposed to radiation is death from an induced cancer. Since cancers usually do no develop until many years after exposure, other causes of death may intervene and take the lives of those destined to die from cancer. This computer code has been developed to aid risk analysis by calculating the number of premature deaths and loss of years of life produced by a hypothetical population after exposure to a given risk situation. The code generates modified life tables and estimates the impact of increased risk through several numerical comparisons with the appropriate reference life tables. One of the code's frequent applications is in estimating the number of radiation induced deaths that would result from exposing an initial population of 100,000 individuals to an annual radiation dose. For each risk situation analyzed, the computer code generates a summary table which documents the input, data and contains the results of the comparisons with reference life tables

  19. RADTRAN 5 - A computer code for transportation risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neuhauser, K.S.; Kanipe, F.L.

    1993-01-01

    The RADTRAN 5 computer code has been developed to estimate radiological and nonradiological risks of radioactive materials transportation. RADTRAN 5 is written in ANSI standard FORTRAN 77; the code contains significant advances in the methodology first pioneered with the LINK option of RADTRAN 4. A major application of the LINK methodology is route-specific analysis. Another application is comparisons of attributes along the same route segments. Nonradiological risk factors have been incorporated to allow users to estimate nonradiological fatalities and injuries that might occur during the transportation event(s) being analyzed. These fatalities include prompt accidental fatalities from mechanical causes. Values of these risk factors for the United States have been made available in the code as optional defaults. Several new health effects models have been published in the wake of the Hiroshima-Nagasaki dosimetry reassessment, and this has emphasized the need for flexibility in the RADTRAN approach to health-effects calculations. Therefore, the basic set of health-effects conversion equations in RADTRAN have been made user-definable. All parameter values can be changed by the user, but a complete set of default values are available for both the new International Commission on Radiation Protection model (ICRP Publication 60) and the recent model of the U.S. National Research Council's Committee on the Biological Effects of Radiation (BEIR V). The meteorological input data tables have been modified to permit optional entry of maximum downwind distances for each dose isopleth. The expected dose to an individual in each isodose area is also calculated and printed automatically. Examples are given that illustrate the power and flexibility of the RADTRAN 5 computer code. (J.P.N.)

  20. Certification plan for safety and PRA codes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toffer, H.; Crowe, R.D.; Ades, M.J.

    1990-05-01

    A certification plan for computer codes used in Safety Analyses and Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) for the operation of the Savannah River Site (SRS) reactors has been prepared. An action matrix, checklists, and a time schedule have been included in the plan. These items identify what is required to achieve certification of the codes. A list of Safety Analysis and Probabilistic Risk Assessment (SA ampersand PRA) computer codes covered by the certification plan has been assembled. A description of each of the codes was provided in Reference 4. The action matrix for the configuration control plan identifies code specific requirements that need to be met to achieve the certification plan's objectives. The checklist covers the specific procedures that are required to support the configuration control effort and supplement the software life cycle procedures based on QAP 20-1 (Reference 7). A qualification checklist for users establishes the minimum prerequisites and training for achieving levels of proficiency in using configuration controlled codes for critical parameter calculations

  1. ANL/CANTIA code for steam generator tube integrity assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Revankar, S.T.; Wolf, B.; Majumdar, S.; Riznic, J.R.

    2009-01-01

    Steam generator (SG) tubes have an important safety role in CANDU type reactors and Pressurized Water Reactors (PWR) because they constitute one of the primary barriers between the radioactive and non-radioactive sides of the nuclear plant. The SG tubes are susceptible to corrosion and damage. A failure of a single steam generator tube, or even a few tubes, would not be a serious safety-related event in a CANDU reactor. The leakage from a ruptured tube is within makeup capacity of the primary heat transport system, so that as long as the operator takes the correct actions, the off-site consequences will be negligible. A sufficient safety margin against tube rupture used to be the basis for a variety of maintenance strategies developed to maintain a suitable level of plant safety and reliability. Several through-wall flaws may remain in operation and potentially contribute to the total primary-to-secondary leak rate. Assessment of the conditional probabilities of tube failures, leak rates, and ultimately risk of exceeding licensing dose limits has been used for steam generator tube fitness-for-service assessment. The advantage of this type of analysis is that it avoids the excessive conservatism typically present in deterministic methodologies. However, it requires considerable effort and expense to develop all of the failure, leakage, probability of detection, and flaw growth distributions and models necessary to obtain meaningful results from a probabilistic model. The Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission (CNSC) recently developed the CANTIA methodology for probabilistic assessment of inspection strategies for steam generator tubes as a direct effect on the probability of tube failure and primary-to-secondary leak rate Recently Argonne National Laboratory has developed tube integrity and leak rate models under Integrated Steam Generator Tube Integrity Program (ISGTIP-2). These models have been incorporated in the ANL/CANTIA code. This paper presents the ANL

  2. Assessment of systems codes and their coupling with CFD codes in thermal–hydraulic applications to innovative reactors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bandini, G., E-mail: giacomino.bandini@enea.it [Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development (ENEA) (Italy); Polidori, M. [Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development (ENEA) (Italy); Gerschenfeld, A.; Pialla, D.; Li, S. [Commissariat à l’Energie Atomique (CEA) (France); Ma, W.M.; Kudinov, P.; Jeltsov, M.; Kööp, K. [Royal Institute of Technology (KTH) (Sweden); Huber, K.; Cheng, X.; Bruzzese, C.; Class, A.G.; Prill, D.P. [Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) (Germany); Papukchiev, A. [Gesellschaft für Anlagen- und Reaktorsicherheit (GRS) (Germany); Geffray, C.; Macian-Juan, R. [Technische Universität München (TUM) (Germany); Maas, L. [Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire (IRSN) (France)

    2015-01-15

    Highlights: • The assessment of RELAP5, TRACE and CATHARE system codes on integral experiments is presented. • Code benchmark of CATHARE, DYN2B, and ATHLET on PHENIX natural circulation experiment. • Grid-free pool modelling based on proper orthogonal decomposition for system codes is explained. • The code coupling methodologies are explained. • The coupling of several CFD/system codes is tested against integral experiments. - Abstract: The THINS project of the 7th Framework EU Program on nuclear fission safety is devoted to the investigation of crosscutting thermal–hydraulic issues for innovative nuclear systems. A significant effort in the project has been dedicated to the qualification and validation of system codes currently employed in thermal–hydraulic transient analysis for nuclear reactors. This assessment is based either on already available experimental data, or on the data provided by test campaigns carried out in the frame of THINS project activities. Data provided by TALL and CIRCE facilities were used in the assessment of system codes for HLM reactors, while the PHENIX ultimate natural circulation test was used as reference for a benchmark exercise among system codes for sodium-cooled reactor applications. In addition, a promising grid-free pool model based on proper orthogonal decomposition is proposed to overcome the limits shown by the thermal–hydraulic system codes in the simulation of pool-type systems. Furthermore, multi-scale system-CFD solutions have been developed and validated for innovative nuclear system applications. For this purpose, data from the PHENIX experiments have been used, and data are provided by the tests conducted with new configuration of the TALL-3D facility, which accommodates a 3D test section within the primary circuit. The TALL-3D measurements are currently used for the validation of the coupling between system and CFD codes.

  3. Developmental assessment of the SCDAP/RELAP5 code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harvego, E.A.; Slefken, L.J.; Coryell, E.W.

    1997-01-01

    The development and assessment of the late-phase damage progression models in the current version (designated MOD3.2) of the SCDAP/RELAP5 code are described. The SCDAP/RELAP5 code is being developed at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory under the primary sponsorship of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to provide best-estimate transient simulations of light water reactor coolant systems (RCS) during severe accident conditions. Recent modeling improvements made to the MOD3.2 version of the code include (1) molten pool formation and heat up, including the transient start-up of natural circulation heat transfer, (2) in-core molten pool thermal-mechanical crust failure, (3) the melting and relocation of upper plenum structures, and (4) improvements in the modeling of lower plenum debris behavior and the potential for failure of the lower head. Finally, to eliminate abrupt transitions between core damage states and provide more realistic predictions of late phase accident progression phenomena, a transition smoothing methodology was developed and implemented that results in the calculation of a gradual transition from an intact core geometry through the different core damage states leading to molten pool formation. A wide range of experiments and modeling tools were used to assess the capabilities of MOD3.2. The results of the SCDAP/RELAP5/MOD3.2 assessment indicate that modeling improvements have significantly enhanced the code capabilities and performance in several areas compared to the earlier code version. New models for transition smoothing between core damage states, and modeling improvements/additions for cladding oxide failure, molten pool behavior, and molten pool crust failure have significantly improved the code usability for a wide range of applications and have significantly improved the prediction of hydrogen production, molten pool melt mass and core melt relocation time

  4. RELAP-7 Code Assessment Plan and Requirement Traceability Matrix

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoo, Junsoo; Choi, Yong-joon; Smith, Curtis L.

    2016-10-01

    The RELAP-7, a safety analysis code for nuclear reactor system, is under development at Idaho National Laboratory (INL). Overall, the code development is directed towards leveraging the advancements in computer science technology, numerical solution methods and physical models over the last decades. Recently, INL has also been putting an effort to establish the code assessment plan, which aims to ensure an improved final product quality through the RELAP-7 development process. The ultimate goal of this plan is to propose a suitable way to systematically assess the wide range of software requirements for RELAP-7, including the software design, user interface, and technical requirements, etc. To this end, we first survey the literature (i.e., international/domestic reports, research articles) addressing the desirable features generally required for advanced nuclear system safety analysis codes. In addition, the V&V (verification and validation) efforts as well as the legacy issues of several recently-developed codes (e.g., RELAP5-3D, TRACE V5.0) are investigated. Lastly, this paper outlines the Requirement Traceability Matrix (RTM) for RELAP-7 which can be used to systematically evaluate and identify the code development process and its present capability.

  5. Audit of data and code use in the SR-Can safety assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hicks, T.W.; Baldwin, T.D. [Galson Sciences Ltd, 5 Grosvenor House, Melton R oad, Oakham, Rutland LE15 6AX (United Kingdom)

    2008-03-15

    Building on the findings of previous studies on data and code quality assurance (QA) in safety assessments, this report provides a review of data and code QA in the SR-Can safety assessment. The data quality audit aimed to check that the selection and use of data in the SR-Can safety assessment was appropriate, focusing on the data that underpin representations of and assumptions about canister, insert, buffer, and backfill behaviour. The SR-Can Data Report provided the initial focus for examining the traceability and reliability of data used in the safety assessment; the Data Report is one of the series of SR-Can safety assessment reports and, in this review, it was anticipated that it would provide the primary source of data on the canister, insert, buffer, and backfill. However, other safety assessment reports (the SR-Can Main Report, the Initial State Report, the Fuel and Canister Process Report, and the Buffer and Backfill Process Report) were found to provide key information on data used in the safety assessment. The quality audit of codes aimed to check that code use in the SR-Can safety assessment has been justified through a transparent and traceable process of code development and selection. The Model Summary Report provided the focus for reviewing the QA status of the codes used in the safety assessment. As well as highlighting a number of concerns regarding QA aspects of specific data sets, parameter values, and codes used in the SR-Can safety assessment (which are presented in the report), the review has led to several general observations on data and code QA that should be considered by SKB in the development and implementation of a QA system for the SR-Site safety assessment: - The SR-Site safety assessment and associated QA records should include information that demonstrates that a full QA system has been implemented in order to build confidence in the validity of the assessment. - The data and parameter values used directly in the safety

  6. Guidelines and procedures for the International Code Assessment and Applications Program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1987-04-01

    This document presents the guidelines and procedures by which the International Code Assessment and Applications Program (ICAP) will be conducted. The document summarizes the management structure of the program and the relationships between and responsibilities of the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) and the international participants. The procedures for code maintenance and necessary documentation are described. Guidelines for the performance and documentation of code assessment studies are presented. An overview of an effort to quantify code uncertainty, which the ICAP supports, is included

  7. Development of health effect assessment software using MACCS2 code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hwang, Seok-Won; Park, Jong-Woon; Kang, Kyung Min; Jae, Moosung

    2008-01-01

    The extended regulatory interests in severe accidents management and enhanced safety regulatory requirements raise a need of more accurate analysis of the effect to the public health by users with diverse disciplines. This facilitates this work to develop web-based radiation health effect assessment software, RASUM, by using the MACCS2 code and HTML language to provide diverse users (regulators, operators, and public) with easy understanding, modeling, calculating, analyzing, documenting and reporting of the radiation health effect under hypothetical severe accidents. The engine of the web-based RASUM uses the MACCS2 as a base code developed by NRC and is composed of five modules such as development module, PSA training module, output module, input data module (source term, population distribution, meteorological data, etc.), and MACCS2 run module. For verification and demonstration of the RASUM, the offsite consequence analysis using the RASUM frame is performed for such as early fatality risk, organ does, and whole body does for two selected scenarios. Moreover, CCDF results from the RASUM for KSNP and CANDU type reactors are presented and compared. (author)

  8. SCDAP/RELAP5 code development and assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allison, C.M.; Hohorst, J.K.

    1996-01-01

    The SCDAP/RELAP5 computer code is designed to describe the overall reactor coolant system thermal-hydraulic response, core damage progression, and fission product release during severe accidents. The code is being developed at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory under the primary sponsorship of the Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. The current version of the code is SCDAP/RELAP5/MOD3.1e. Although MOD3.1e contains a number of significant improvements since the initial version of MOD3.1 was released, new models to treat the behavior of the fuel and cladding during reflood have had the most dramatic impact on the code's calculations. This paper provides a brief description of the new reflood models, presents highlights of the assessment of the current version of MOD3.1, and discusses future SCDAP/RELAP5/MOD3.2 model development activities

  9. Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kinchin, G.H.

    1983-01-01

    After defining risk and introducing the concept of individual and societal risk, the author considers each of these, restricting considerations to risk of death. Some probabilities of death arising from various causes are quoted, and attention drawn to the care necessary in making comparisons between sets of data and to the distinction between voluntary and involuntary categories and between early and delayed deaths. The presentation of information on societal risk is discussed and examples given. The history of quantified risk assessment is outlined, particularly related to the nuclear industry, the process of assessing risk discussed: identification of hazard causes, the development of accident chains and the use of event trees, the evaluation of probability through the collection of data and their use with fault trees, and the assessment of consequences of hazards in terms of fatalities. Reference is made to the human element and common-made failures, and to studies supporting the development of reliability assessment techniques. Acceptance criteria are discussed for individual and societal risk in the nuclear field, and it is shown that proposed criteria lead to risks conservative by comparison with risks from day-to-day accidents and other potentially hazardous industries. (U.K.)

  10. Risk Assessment Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

  11. Assessment of US NRC fuel rod behavior codes to extended burnup

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laats, E.T.; Croucher, D.W.; Haggag, F.M.

    1982-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to report the status of assessing the capabilities of the NRC fuel rod performance codes for calculating extended burnup rod behavior. As part of this effort, a large spectrum of fuel rod behavior phenomena was examined, and the phenomena deemed as being influential during extended burnup operation were identified. Then, the experiment data base addressing these identified phenomena was examined for availability and completeness at extended burnups. Calculational capabilities of the NRC's steady state FRAPCON-2 and transient FRAP-T6 fuel rod behavior codes were examined for each of the identified phenomenon. Parameters calculated by the codes were compared with the available data base, and judgments were made regarding model performance. Overall, the FRAPCON-2 code was found to be moderately well assessed to extended burnups, but the FRAP-T6 code cannot be adequately assessed until more transient high burnup data are available

  12. Introduction to risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raina, V.M.

    2002-01-01

    This paper gives an introduction to risk assessment. It discusses the basic concepts of risk assessment, nuclear risk assessment process and products, the role of risk assessment products in nuclear safety assurance, the relationship between risk assessment and other safety analysis and risk assessment and safe operating envelope

  13. Assessment of risks of accidents and normal operation at nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Savolainen, Ilkka; Vuori, Seppo.

    1977-01-01

    A probabilistic assessment model for the analysis of risks involved in the operation of nuclear power plants is described. With the computer code ARANO it is possible to estimate the health and economic consequences of reactor accidents both in probabilistic and deterministic sense. In addition the code is applicable to the calculation of individual and collective doses caused by the releases during normal operation. The estimation of release probabilities and magnitudes is not included in the model. (author)

  14. The MESORAD dose assessment model: Computer code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramsdell, J.V.; Athey, G.F.; Bander, T.J.; Scherpelz, R.I.

    1988-10-01

    MESORAD is a dose equivalent model for emergency response applications that is designed to be run on minicomputers. It has been developed by the Pacific Northwest Laboratory for use as part of the Intermediate Dose Assessment System in the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission Operations Center in Washington, DC, and the Emergency Management System in the US Department of Energy Unified Dose Assessment Center in Richland, Washington. This volume describes the MESORAD computer code and contains a listing of the code. The technical basis for MESORAD is described in the first volume of this report (Scherpelz et al. 1986). A third volume of the documentation planned. That volume will contain utility programs and input and output files that can be used to check the implementation of MESORAD. 18 figs., 4 tabs

  15. Cumulative Risk Assessment (CRA): transforming the way we assess health risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Pamela R D; Dotson, G Scott; Maier, Andrew

    2012-10-16

    Human health risk assessments continue to evolve and now focus on the need for cumulative risk assessment (CRA). CRA involves assessing the combined risk from coexposure to multiple chemical and nonchemical stressors for varying health effects. CRAs are broader in scope than traditional chemical risk assessments because they allow for a more comprehensive evaluation of the interaction between different stressors and their combined impact on human health. Future directions of CRA include greater emphasis on local-level community-based assessments; integrating environmental, occupational, community, and individual risk factors; and identifying and implementing common frameworks and risk metrics for incorporating multiple stressors.

  16. System Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krantz, E.A.; Russell, K.D.; Stewart, H.D.; Van Siclen, V.S.

    1986-01-01

    Utilization of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) related information in the day-to-day operation of plant systems has, in the past, been impracticable due to the size of the computers needed to run PRA codes. This paper discusses a microcomputer-based database system which can greatly enhance the capability of operators or regulators to incorporate PRA methodologies into their routine decision making. This system is called the System Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) system. SARA was developed by EG and G Idaho, Inc. at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory to facilitate the study of frequency and consequence analyses of accident sequences from a large number of light water reactors (LWRs) in this country. This information is being amassed by several studies sponsored by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC). To meet the need of portability and accessibility, and to perform the variety of calculations necessary, it was felt that a microcomputer-based system would be most suitable

  17. The enhancement of a biosphere code for use in the assessment of deep repositories for radioactive waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ashton, J.; Little, R.H.

    1991-01-01

    A disposal system for radioactive waste is conventionally considered to consist of the engineered barriers of the repository, the geosphere and the surface environment or biosphere. Computer codes have been developed to assist in assessing the impact of radionuclides migrating from the repository through the disposal system. Codes have been developed to represent the repository, the geosphere and the biosphere. The fundamental role of the biosphere codes is, for radionuclide inputs, to estimate the dose, or probability distribution function of dose, to a maximally exposed individual as a function of time. In the United Kingdom, the primary target for long-term radiological impacts from a single disposal facility is that the risk of fatal cancer to an individual in any one year should not exceed one in a million at any time. The recent revival of interest in the UK in the deep disposal of radioactive waste has resulted in the need for the risk to be estimated over timescales up to a million years, since a deep geologic repository might be able to withstand the effects of several future glacial episodes. Biosphere modelling for deep disposal of radioactive waste poses particular problems since the surface environment is expected to evolve as a result of changes in climatic conditions. Consequently the effect of climate induced changes in geomorphology, land use and sea level on the calculated risk have to be considered. This paper outlines the development of a new version of the dynamic biosphere model DECOS, which was developed originally in the context of shallow site assessments. The new version of the code, called DECOS-MG, is capable of simulating the effect of multiple glacial cycles and changes in sea level. (14 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.)

  18. Risk assessments and safe machinery ensuring compliance with the EU directives

    CERN Document Server

    Jespen, Torben

    2016-01-01

    This book describes the prerequisites for the placing on the market and the safe use of machinery in compliance with the relevant EU Directives, especially the Machinery Directive 2006/42. It provides readers with high-level knowledge concerning the Essential Health and Safety Requirements (EHSR) that machinery must fulfill. The approach and principles of the Machinery Directive were most recently made worldwide acknowledged in the ILO code of practice on safe machinery, released in 2013. The book addresses that code, as well as providing valuable insight into other EU Product and Workplace legislation. Focusing on the key aspect of safe machinery, the “machinery safety risk assessment”, which allows readers to better understand the more difficult aspects of risk assessments, the book equips readers to tackle problems at the manufacturing stage and in different use scenarios, introducing them to risk reduction techniques and functional safety aspects.

  19. Formulation and Presentation of Risk Assessments to Address Risk Targets for Radioactive Waste Disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilmot, R.D.

    2002-10-01

    The Swedish regulators have been active in the field of performance assessment of radioactive waste disposal facilities for many years and have developed sophisticated approaches to the development of scenarios and other aspects of assessments. These assessments have generally used dose as the assessment end-point. Regulations recently established in Sweden (SSI FS 1998:1) have introduced a risk criterion for radioactive waste disposal: the annual risk of harmful effects after closure of a disposal facility should not exceed 10 -6 for a representative individual in the group exposed to the greatest risk. This report evaluates different approaches to the definition and use of probabilities in the context of risk assessments, and examines the presentation of the results of risk assessments in safety cases to meet risk targets. The report illustrates the strengths and weaknesses of different possible approaches to risk assessment by reference to assessments in other countries, and provides suggestions for future activity and development in this area by the Swedish regulators. The review of experience in other countries has led to a number of key observations relevant to the conduct of regulatory work on risk assessments and preparations for review. These highlight the importance of developing a protocol for conducting calculations, and linking such a protocol to the requirements of risk assessment calculations and to existing code and model capabilities. There are a number of decisions and assumptions required in developing a risk assessment methodology that could potentially affect the calculated results. These assumptions are independent of the analysis of performance, and relate to issues such as the expectation value of risk, risk dilution, the definition of probability density functions and achieving convergence. A review of a proponent's risk assessment should address these issues in determining the appropriateness and validity of the results presented

  20. Formulation and Presentation of Risk Assessments to Address Risk Targets for Radioactive Waste Disposal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilmot, R.D. [Galson Sciences Ltd, Oakham (United Kingdom)

    2002-10-01

    The Swedish regulators have been active in the field of performance assessment of radioactive waste disposal facilities for many years and have developed sophisticated approaches to the development of scenarios and other aspects of assessments. These assessments have generally used dose as the assessment end-point. Regulations recently established in Sweden (SSI FS 1998:1) have introduced a risk criterion for radioactive waste disposal: the annual risk of harmful effects after closure of a disposal facility should not exceed 10{sup -6} for a representative individual in the group exposed to the greatest risk. This report evaluates different approaches to the definition and use of probabilities in the context of risk assessments, and examines the presentation of the results of risk assessments in safety cases to meet risk targets. The report illustrates the strengths and weaknesses of different possible approaches to risk assessment by reference to assessments in other countries, and provides suggestions for future activity and development in this area by the Swedish regulators. The review of experience in other countries has led to a number of key observations relevant to the conduct of regulatory work on risk assessments and preparations for review. These highlight the importance of developing a protocol for conducting calculations, and linking such a protocol to the requirements of risk assessment calculations and to existing code and model capabilities. There are a number of decisions and assumptions required in developing a risk assessment methodology that could potentially affect the calculated results. These assumptions are independent of the analysis of performance, and relate to issues such as the expectation value of risk, risk dilution, the definition of probability density functions and achieving convergence. A review of a proponent's risk assessment should address these issues in determining the appropriateness and validity of the results presented

  1. The responsibility of technology. Weighting goods - risk assessment - codes of conduct

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lenk, H.; Maring, M.

    1991-01-01

    Under the heading 'The responsibility of technology' nineteen authors contribute to the following topics: Basic questions of weighting 'goods' relating to resources, the relationship of technical possibilities and (self)restraint of individuals and collectives, striving for knowledge and appropriate limits, possibilities of directing and influencing technology and questions concerning (the limits of) individual and collective responsibility. Dealt with in more detail are: The assessment of technical risks and uncertainties from an ethical and legal point of view, problems in nuclear research and technology illustrated by the example of Chernobyl, information technology, and the influence of the press when presenting technology matters. (orig./HSCH) [de

  2. Risk assessments for the disposal of high level radioactive wastes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, C.F.

    1975-01-01

    The risks associated with the disposal of high level wastes derive from the potential for release of radioactive materials into the environment. The assessment of these risks requires a methodology for risk analysis, an identification of the radioactive sources, and a method by which to express the relative hazard of the various radionuclides that comprise the high level waste. The development of a methodology for risk analysis is carried out after a review of previous work in the area of probabilistic risk assessment. The methodology suggested involves the probabilistic analysis of a general accident consequence distribution. In this analysis, the frequency aspect of the distribution is treated separately from the normalized probability function. At the final stage of the analysis, the frequency and probability characteristics of the distribution are recombined to provide an estimate of the risk. The characterization of the radioactive source term is accomplished using the ORIGEN computer code. Calculations are carried out for various reactor types and fuel cycles, and the overall waste hazard for a projected thirty-five year nuclear power program is determined

  3. A Comparative Risk Assessment of Extended Integrated Leak Rate Testing Intervals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oh, Ji Yong; Hwang, Seok Won; Lee, Byung Sik [Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Co., Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2009-10-15

    This paper presents the risk impacts of extending the Integrated Leak Rate Testing (ILRT) intervals (from five years to ten years) of Yonggwang (YGN) Unit 1 and 2. These risk impacts depended on the annual variances of meteorological data and resident population. Main comparisons were performed between the initial risk assessment (2005) for the purpose of extending ILRT interval and risk reassessment (2009) where the changed plant internal configurations (core inventory and radioisotope release fraction) and plant external alterations (wind directions, rainfall and population distributions) were monitored. The reassessment showed that there was imperceptible risk increase when the ILRT interval was extended compared to the initial risk assessment. In addition, the increased value of the Large Early Release Frequency (LERF) also satisfied the acceptance guideline proposed on Reg. Guide 1.174. The MACCS II code was used for evaluating the offsite consequence analysis. The primary risk index were used as the Probabilistic Population Dose (PPD) by considering the early effects within 80 km. The Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) of YGN 1 and 2 was applied to evaluate the accident frequency of each source term category and the used PSA scope was limited to internal event.

  4. Assessing the INTERTRAN code for application in Asian environs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoshimura, S.

    1986-10-01

    A Japanese study, which was carried out as part of the IAEA Coordinated Research Programme on Radiation Protection Implications of Transport Accidents Involving Radioactive Materials, provided evaluations of transport conditions of nuclear fuel in Japan. Nuclear fuel is transported in Japan in the form of UO 2 , UF 6 , fresh fuel assemblies and spent fuel. Based on these transport conditions calculations were made using the INTERTRAN code which was developed as part of the IAEA Coordinated Research Programme on Safe Transport of Radioactive Materials (1980-1985), for assessing doses to workers and to the public due to the transport of nuclear fuel. As a part of the study, a new code was developed for evaluating radiological impacts of the transport of radioactive materials. The code was also used for assessing doses from the transport of nuclear fuel in Japan. The results indicate that doses to workers and to the public due to the incident-free transport of nuclear fuel are low, i.e., of the order of 1-30 man mSv/100 km. The doses calculated by the Japanese code were in general slightly smaller than the doses calculated using the INTERTRAN code. The study concerned normal conditions of transport, i.e., no impact from incidents or accidents was evaluated. The study resulted, in addition, in some suggestions for further developing the INTERTRAN code

  5. Operational risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKim, Vicky L

    2017-06-01

    In the world of risk management, which encompasses the business continuity disciplines, many types of risk require evaluation. Financial risk is most often the primary focus, followed by product and market risks. Another critical area, which typically lacks a thorough review or may be overlooked, is operational risk. This category encompasses many risk exposure types including those around building structures and systems, environmental issues, nature, neighbours, clients, regulatory compliance, network, data security and so on. At times, insurance carriers will assess internal hazards, but seldom do these assessments include more than a cursory look at other types of operational risk. In heavily regulated environments, risk assessments are required but may not always include thorough assessments of operational exposures. Vulnerabilities may linger or go unnoticed, only to become the catalyst for a business disruption at a later time, some of which are so severe that business recovery becomes nearly impossible. Businesses may suffer loss of clients as the result of a prolonged disruption of services. Comprehensive operational risk assessments can assist in identifying such vulnerabilities, exposures and threats so that the risk can be minimised or removed. This paper lays out how an assessment of this type can be successfully conducted.

  6. Introduction to CRRIS: a computerized radiological risk investigation system for assessing atmospheric releases of radionuclides

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baes, C.F. III; Miller, C.W.; Kocher, D.C.; Sjoreen, A.L.; Murphy, B.D.

    1985-08-01

    The CRRIS is a Computerized Radiological Risk Investigation System consisting of eight fully integrated computer codes which calculate environmental transport of atmospheric releases of radionuclides and resulting doses and health risks to individuals or populations. Each code may also be used alone for various assessment applications. Radionuclides are handled by the CRRIS either in terms of the released radionuclides or the exposure radionuclides which consist of both the released nuclides and decay products that grow in during environmental transport. The CRRIS is not designed to simulate short-term effects. 51 refs

  7. Assessment of subchannel code ASSERT-PV for flow-distribution predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nava-Dominguez, A.; Rao, Y.F.; Waddington, G.M.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Assessment of the subchannel code ASSERT-PV 3.2 for the prediction of flow distribution. • Open literature and in-house experimental data to quantify ASSERT-PV predictions. • Model changes assessed against vertical and horizontal flow experiments. • Improvement of flow-distribution predictions under CANDU-relevant conditions. - Abstract: This paper reports an assessment of the recently released subchannel code ASSERT-PV 3.2 for the prediction of flow-distribution in fuel bundles, including subchannel void fraction, quality and mass fluxes. Experimental data from open literature and from in-house tests are used to assess the flow-distribution models in ASSERT-PV 3.2. The prediction statistics using the recommended model set of ASSERT-PV 3.2 are compared to those from previous code versions. Separate-effects sensitivity studies are performed to quantify the contribution of each flow-distribution model change or enhancement to the improvement in flow-distribution prediction. The assessment demonstrates significant improvement in the prediction of flow-distribution in horizontal fuel channels containing CANDU bundles

  8. Assessment of subchannel code ASSERT-PV for flow-distribution predictions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nava-Dominguez, A., E-mail: navadoma@aecl.ca; Rao, Y.F., E-mail: raoy@aecl.ca; Waddington, G.M., E-mail: waddingg@aecl.ca

    2014-08-15

    Highlights: • Assessment of the subchannel code ASSERT-PV 3.2 for the prediction of flow distribution. • Open literature and in-house experimental data to quantify ASSERT-PV predictions. • Model changes assessed against vertical and horizontal flow experiments. • Improvement of flow-distribution predictions under CANDU-relevant conditions. - Abstract: This paper reports an assessment of the recently released subchannel code ASSERT-PV 3.2 for the prediction of flow-distribution in fuel bundles, including subchannel void fraction, quality and mass fluxes. Experimental data from open literature and from in-house tests are used to assess the flow-distribution models in ASSERT-PV 3.2. The prediction statistics using the recommended model set of ASSERT-PV 3.2 are compared to those from previous code versions. Separate-effects sensitivity studies are performed to quantify the contribution of each flow-distribution model change or enhancement to the improvement in flow-distribution prediction. The assessment demonstrates significant improvement in the prediction of flow-distribution in horizontal fuel channels containing CANDU bundles.

  9. Fire risk assessment method under the technical building code; Metodo de evaluacion del reisgo de incendio en el marco del Codigo Tecnico de la Edificacion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Perez-Martin, J. C.; Diaz-Diaz, R.; Santos-Garcia, R.

    2010-07-01

    The high complexity of measuring and comparing the risk level of performance based design allowed by the Spain Building Code (CTE) and the lack of Spanish legislation on the matter makes a fire risk evaluation tool highly useful guiding the project's and the control authority over the feasibility of these complicated projects. A fire Risk Evaluation Method within the frame of the Spanish Building Code (MEREDICTE) has been developed trying to balance input sources, simplicity and clearness in its use. The number of parameters implied guarantees sound, exhaustive and reliable outputs. MEREDICTE is made of 73 parameters: 31 calculate potential risk and 42 obtain protection level. In an orientative way, MEREDICTE's parameters triple those of the most referred and extended evaluation method: the Gretener Method. The article shows the MEREDICTE technique and foundations, the methodology used in its investigation and development, its most significant innovation and its possible applications. Regarding the protection level, its formulation and applications re referred to the Windsor buildings of Madrid comparing the results obtained on the building as it was devastated by the fire of February 2005 and whether it fulfilled the Spanish building code conditions. (Author) 8 refs.

  10. A suite of models to support the quantitative assessment of spread in pest risk analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Robinet, C.; Kehlenbeck, H.; Werf, van der W.

    2012-01-01

    In the frame of the EU project PRATIQUE (KBBE-2007-212459 Enhancements of pest risk analysis techniques) a suite of models was developed to support the quantitative assessment of spread in pest risk analysis. This dataset contains the model codes (R language) for the four models in the suite. Three

  11. Computer codes for level 1 probabilistic safety assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1990-06-01

    Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) entails several laborious tasks suitable for computer codes assistance. This guide identifies these tasks, presents guidelines for selecting and utilizing computer codes in the conduct of the PSA tasks and for the use of PSA results in safety management and provides information on available codes suggested or applied in performing PSA in nuclear power plants. The guidance is intended for use by nuclear power plant system engineers, safety and operating personnel, and regulators. Large efforts are made today to provide PC-based software systems and PSA processed information in a way to enable their use as a safety management tool by the nuclear power plant overall management. Guidelines on the characteristics of software needed for management to prepare a software that meets their specific needs are also provided. Most of these computer codes are also applicable for PSA of other industrial facilities. The scope of this document is limited to computer codes used for the treatment of internal events. It does not address other codes available mainly for the analysis of external events (e.g. seismic analysis) flood and fire analysis. Codes discussed in the document are those used for probabilistic rather than for phenomenological modelling. It should be also appreciated that these guidelines are not intended to lead the user to selection of one specific code. They provide simply criteria for the selection. Refs and tabs

  12. Code of practice for food handler activities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, T A; Kanas, R P; McCoubrey, I A; Belton, M E

    2005-08-01

    The food industry regulates various aspects of food handler activities, according to legislation and customer expectations. The purpose of this paper is to provide a code of practice which delineates a set of working standards for food handler hygiene, handwashing, use of protective equipment, wearing of jewellery and body piercing. The code was developed by a working group of occupational physicians with expertise in both food manufacturing and retail, using a risk assessment approach. Views were also obtained from other occupational physicians working within the food industry and the relevant regulatory bodies. The final version of the code (available in full as Supplementary data in Occupational Medicine Online) therefore represents a broad consensus of opinion. The code of practice represents a set of minimum standards for food handler suitability and activities, based on a practical assessment of risk, for application in food businesses. It aims to provide useful working advice to food businesses of all sizes.

  13. Analyses in support of risk-informed natural gas vehicle maintenance facility codes and standards :

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ekoto, Isaac W.; Blaylock, Myra L.; LaFleur, Angela Christine; LaChance, Jeffrey L.; Horne, Douglas B.

    2014-03-01

    Safety standards development for maintenance facilities of liquid and compressed gas fueled large-scale vehicles is required to ensure proper facility design and operation envelopes. Standard development organizations are utilizing risk-informed concepts to develop natural gas vehicle (NGV) codes and standards so that maintenance facilities meet acceptable risk levels. The present report summarizes Phase I work for existing NGV repair facility code requirements and highlights inconsistencies that need quantitative analysis into their effectiveness. A Hazardous and Operability study was performed to identify key scenarios of interest. Finally, scenario analyses were performed using detailed simulations and modeling to estimate the overpressure hazards from HAZOP defined scenarios. The results from Phase I will be used to identify significant risk contributors at NGV maintenance facilities, and are expected to form the basis for follow-on quantitative risk analysis work to address specific code requirements and identify effective accident prevention and mitigation strategies.

  14. Hepatitis Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... please visit this page: About CDC.gov . Hepatitis Risk Assessment Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Viral Hepatitis. Are you at risk? Take this 5 minute Hepatitis Risk Assessment developed ...

  15. Assessment of hydrogen risk using advanced methodology for lumped parameter code-MELCOR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duspiva, Jiri; Kujal, Bohumir

    2007-01-01

    The hydrogen risk is one of the most important containment integrity challenge during a severe accident progression at the VVER type reactors installed at the Czech NPPs. On the basis of recent comprehensive research results the general flame acceleration (FA) and deflagration-to-detonation transition (DDT) criteria were formulated. The main objective of the new methodology developed in the NRI Rez was to prepare an analytical tool for the assessment of the hydrogen risk at the Czech NPPs in the course of a severe accident and also for the design of hydrogen removal system which should be able to prevent or at least minimize the threats of hydrogen detonation in containments. The major idea on which the development of models for the FA and DDT criteria was based is described in OECD state-of-art report (NEA, 2000). The module for the computation of FA criterion (often named σ-criterion) and DDT one (also named λ or Dorofeev criterion) was linked to the MELCOR 1.8.5 model of VVER-1000 containment. The most important feature of new model is that it makes possible to evaluate the both of the criteria for all compartments in the containment continuously during severe accident scenario progression. The containment model, which could be used for such a calculation, has to be very detailed owing to appropriate description of hydrogen distribution. New model was tested by calculation of hydrogen detonation risk in the VVER-1000 containment during severe accident scenario initiated by medium break LOCA. At present two more VVER-1000 severe accident scenarios have been analyzed. The mapping of a hydrogen detonation risk in individual compartments inside containment was performed. The results of analysis confirm that the risk of hydrogen detonation in the great majority of containment compartments during severe accidents is very high if the hydrogen removal system is not installed. (author)

  16. Assessment of ICARE/CATHARE V1 Severe Accident Code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chatelard, Patrick; Fleurot, Joelle; Marchand, Olivier; Drai, Patrick

    2006-01-01

    The ICARE/CATHARE code system has been developed by the French 'Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire' (IRSN) in the last decade for the detailed evaluation of Severe Accident (SA) consequences in a primary system. It is composed of the coupling of the core degradation IRSN code ICARE2 and of the thermal-hydraulics French code CATHARE2. It has been extensively used to support the level 2 Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA-2) of the 900 MWe PWR. This paper presents the synthesis of the ICARE/CATHARE V1 assessment which was conducted in the frame of the 'International ICARE/CATHARE Users' Club', under the management of IRSN. The ICARE/CATHARE V1 validation matrix is composed of more than 60 experiments, distributed in few thermal-hydraulics non-regression tests (to handle the front end phase of a severe accident), numerous Separate-Effect Tests, about 30 Integral Tests covering both the early and the late degradation phases, as well as a 'circuit' experiment including hydraulics loops. Finally, the simulation of the TMI-2 accident was also added to assess the code against real conditions. This validation task was aimed at assessing the ICARE/CATHARE V1 capabilities (including the stand-alone ICARE2 V3mod1 version) and also at proposing recommendations for an optimal use of this version ('Users' Guidelines'). Thus, with a correct account for the recommended guidelines, it appeared that the last ICARE/CATHARE V1 version could be reasonably used to perform best-estimate reactor studies up to a large corium slumping into the lower head. (authors)

  17. GM Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparrow, Penny A. C.

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

  18. CRRIS, Health Risk Assessment from Atmospheric Releases of Radionuclides

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1999-01-01

    1 - Description of program or function: CRRIS consists of eight fully integrated computer codes which calculate environmental transport of atmospheric releases of radionuclides and resulting doses and health risks to individuals or populations. Each code may be used alone for various assessment applications. Because of its modular structure, CRRIS allows assessments to be tailored to the user's needs. Radionuclides are handled by CRRIS either in terms of the released radionuclides or the exposure radionuclides which consist of both the released nuclides and decay products that build up during environmental transport. Atmospheric dispersion calculations are performed by the ANEMOS computer code for distances less than 100 km and the RETADD-II computer code regional-scale distances. Both codes estimate annual-average air concentrations and ground deposition rates by location. SUMIT will translate and scale multiple ANEMOS runs onto a master grid. TERRA reads radionuclide air concentrations and deposition rates to estimate concentrations of radionuclides in food and surface soil. Radiologic decay and ingrowth, soil leaching, and transport through the food chain are included in the calculations. MLSOIL computes an effective radionuclide ground-surface concentration to be used in computing external health effects. The five-layer model of radionuclide transport through soil in MLSOIL provides an alternative to the single-layer model used in TERRA. DFSOIL computes dose factors used in MLSOIL to compute doses from the five soil layers and from the ground surface. ANDROS reads environmental concentrations of radionuclides computed by the other CRRIS codes and produces tables of doses and risks to individuals or populations from atmospheric releases of radionuclides. 2 - Method of solution: SUMIT performs geometric interpolation. TERRA and MLSOIL are terrestrial transport compartment models. DFSOIL computes soil-layer-specific dose factors based on the point-kernel method

  19. Review of calculational models and computer codes for environmental dose assessment of radioactive releases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strenge, D.L.; Watson, E.C.; Droppo, J.G.

    1976-06-01

    The development of technological bases for siting nuclear fuel cycle facilities requires calculational models and computer codes for the evaluation of risks and the assessment of environmental impact of radioactive effluents. A literature search and review of available computer programs revealed that no one program was capable of performing all of the great variety of calculations (i.e., external dose, internal dose, population dose, chronic release, accidental release, etc.). Available literature on existing computer programs has been reviewed and a description of each program reviewed is given

  20. Review of calculational models and computer codes for environmental dose assessment of radioactive releases

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Strenge, D.L.; Watson, E.C.; Droppo, J.G.

    1976-06-01

    The development of technological bases for siting nuclear fuel cycle facilities requires calculational models and computer codes for the evaluation of risks and the assessment of environmental impact of radioactive effluents. A literature search and review of available computer programs revealed that no one program was capable of performing all of the great variety of calculations (i.e., external dose, internal dose, population dose, chronic release, accidental release, etc.). Available literature on existing computer programs has been reviewed and a description of each program reviewed is given.

  1. Application of the French codes to the pressurized thermal shocks assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Mingya; Wang, Rong Shan; Yu, Weiwei; Lu, Feng; Zhang, Guo Dong; Xue, Fei; Chen, Zhilin [Suzhou Nuclear Power Research Institute, Life Management Center, Suzhou (China); Qian, Guian [Paul Scherrer Institute, Nuclear Energy and Safety Department, Villigen (Switzerland); Shi, Jinhua [Amec Foster Wheeler, Clean Energy Department, Gloucester (United Kingdom)

    2016-12-15

    The integrity of a reactor pressure vessel (RPV) related to pressurized thermal shocks (PTSs) has been extensively studied. This paper introduces an integrity assessment of an RPV subjected to a PTS transient based on the French codes. In the USA, the 'screening criterion' for maximum allowable embrittlement of RPV material is developed based on the probabilistic fracture mechanics. However, in the French RCC-M and RSE-M codes, which are developed based on the deterministic fracture mechanics, there is no 'screening criterion'. In this paper, the methodology in the RCC-M and RSE-M codes, which are used for PTS analysis, are firstly discussed. The bases of the French codes are compared with ASME and FAVOR codes. A case study is also presented. The results show that the method in the RCC-M code that accounts for the influence of cladding on the stress intensity factor (SIF) may be nonconservative. The SIF almost doubles if the weld residual stress is considered. The approaches included in the codes differ in many aspects, which may result in significant differences in the assessment results. Therefore, homogenization of the codes in the long time operation of nuclear power plants is needed.

  2. Application of the French Codes to the Pressurized Thermal Shocks Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mingya Chen

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The integrity of a reactor pressure vessel (RPV related to pressurized thermal shocks (PTSs has been extensively studied. This paper introduces an integrity assessment of an RPV subjected to a PTS transient based on the French codes. In the USA, the “screening criterion” for maximum allowable embrittlement of RPV material is developed based on the probabilistic fracture mechanics. However, in the French RCC-M and RSE-M codes, which are developed based on the deterministic fracture mechanics, there is no “screening criterion”. In this paper, the methodology in the RCC-M and RSE-M codes, which are used for PTS analysis, are firstly discussed. The bases of the French codes are compared with ASME and FAVOR codes. A case study is also presented. The results show that the method in the RCC-M code that accounts for the influence of cladding on the stress intensity factor (SIF may be nonconservative. The SIF almost doubles if the weld residual stress is considered. The approaches included in the codes differ in many aspects, which may result in significant differences in the assessment results. Therefore, homogenization of the codes in the long time operation of nuclear power plants is needed.

  3. Application of the French codes to the pressurized thermal shocks assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Mingya; Wang, Rong Shan; Yu, Weiwei; Lu, Feng; Zhang, Guo Dong; Xue, Fei; Chen, Zhilin; Qian, Guian; Shi, Jinhua

    2016-01-01

    The integrity of a reactor pressure vessel (RPV) related to pressurized thermal shocks (PTSs) has been extensively studied. This paper introduces an integrity assessment of an RPV subjected to a PTS transient based on the French codes. In the USA, the 'screening criterion' for maximum allowable embrittlement of RPV material is developed based on the probabilistic fracture mechanics. However, in the French RCC-M and RSE-M codes, which are developed based on the deterministic fracture mechanics, there is no 'screening criterion'. In this paper, the methodology in the RCC-M and RSE-M codes, which are used for PTS analysis, are firstly discussed. The bases of the French codes are compared with ASME and FAVOR codes. A case study is also presented. The results show that the method in the RCC-M code that accounts for the influence of cladding on the stress intensity factor (SIF) may be nonconservative. The SIF almost doubles if the weld residual stress is considered. The approaches included in the codes differ in many aspects, which may result in significant differences in the assessment results. Therefore, homogenization of the codes in the long time operation of nuclear power plants is needed

  4. Offshore risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Vinnem, Jan-Erik

    2014-01-01

      Offshore Risk Assessment was the first book to deal with quantified risk assessment (QRA) as applied specifically to offshore installations and operations. Risk assessment techniques have been used for more than three decades in the offshore oil and gas industry, and their use is set to expand increasingly as the industry moves into new areas and faces new challenges in older regions.   This updated and expanded third edition has been informed by a major R&D program on offshore risk assessment in Norway and summarizes research from 2006 to the present day. Rooted with a thorough discussion of risk metrics and risk analysis methodology,  subsequent chapters are devoted to analytical approaches to escalation, escape, evacuation and rescue analysis of safety and emergency systems.   Separate chapters analyze the main hazards of offshore structures: fire, explosion, collision, and falling objects as well as structural and marine hazards. Risk mitigation and control are discussed, as well as an illustrat...

  5. Disease-Specific Trends of Comorbidity Coding and Implications for Risk Adjustment in Hospital Administrative Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nimptsch, Ulrike

    2016-06-01

    To investigate changes in comorbidity coding after the introduction of diagnosis related groups (DRGs) based prospective payment and whether trends differ regarding specific comorbidities. Nationwide administrative data (DRG statistics) from German acute care hospitals from 2005 to 2012. Observational study to analyze trends in comorbidity coding in patients hospitalized for common primary diseases and the effects on comorbidity-related risk of in-hospital death. Comorbidity coding was operationalized by Elixhauser diagnosis groups. The analyses focused on adult patients hospitalized for the primary diseases of heart failure, stroke, and pneumonia, as well as hip fracture. When focusing the total frequency of diagnosis groups per record, an increase in depth of coding was observed. Between-hospital variations in depth of coding were present throughout the observation period. Specific comorbidity increases were observed in 15 of the 31 diagnosis groups, and decreases in comorbidity were observed for 11 groups. In patients hospitalized for heart failure, shifts of comorbidity-related risk of in-hospital death occurred in nine diagnosis groups, in which eight groups were directed toward the null. Comorbidity-adjusted outcomes in longitudinal administrative data analyses may be biased by nonconstant risk over time, changes in completeness of coding, and between-hospital variations in coding. Accounting for such issues is important when the respective observation period coincides with changes in the reimbursement system or other conditions that are likely to alter clinical coding practice. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

  6. Current status and applications of intergrated safety assessment and simulation code system for ISA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Izquierdo, J. M.; Hortal, J.; Perea, M. Sanchez; Melendez, E. [Modeling and Simulation Area (MOSI), Nuclear Safety Council (CSN), Madrid (Spain); Queral, E.; Rivas-Lewicky, J. [Energy and Fuels Department, Technical University of Madrid (UPM), Madrid (Spain)

    2017-03-15

    This paper reviews current status of the unified approach known as integrated safety assessment (ISA), as well as the associated SCAIS (simulation codes system for ISA) computer platform. These constitute a proposal, which is the result of collaborative action among the Nuclear Safety Council (CSN), University of Madrid (UPM), and NFQ Solutions S.L, aiming to allow independent regulatory verification of industry quantitative risk assessments. The content elaborates on discussions of the classical treatment of time in conventional probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) sequences and states important conclusions that can be used to avoid systematic and unacceptable underestimation of the failure exceedance frequencies. The unified ISA method meets this challenge by coupling deterministic and probabilistic mutual influences. The feasibility of the approach is illustrated with some examples of its application to a real size plant.

  7. Computer-aided reliability and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leicht, R.; Wingender, H.J.

    1989-01-01

    Activities in the fields of reliability and risk analyses have led to the development of particular software tools which now are combined in the PC-based integrated CARARA system. The options available in this system cover a wide range of reliability-oriented tasks, like organizing raw failure data in the component/event data bank FDB, performing statistical analysis of those data with the program FDA, managing the resulting parameters in the reliability data bank RDB, and performing fault tree analysis with the fault tree code FTL or evaluating the risk of toxic or radioactive material release with the STAR code. (orig.)

  8. Concept of risk: risk assessment and nuclear safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, P.B.

    1980-01-01

    The dissertation is a critical examination of risk assessment and its role in public policy. Nuclear power safety safety issues are selected as the primary source of illustrations and examples. The dissertation examines how risk assessment studies develop a concept of risk which becomes decisive for policy choices. Risk-assessment techniques are interpreted as instruments which secure an evaluation of risk which, in turn, figures prominently in technical reports on nuclear power. The philosophical critique is mounted on two levels. First, an epistemological critique surveys distinctions between the technical concept of risk and more familiar senses of risk. The critique shows that utilization of risk assessment re-structures the concept of risk. The technical concept is contrasted to the function of risk within a decision-maker's conceptual agenda and hierarchy of values. Second, an ethical critique exposes the value commitments of risk assessment recommendations. Although some of these values might be defended for policy decisions, the technical character of risk assessment obfuscates normative issues. Risk assessment is shown to be a form of factual enquiry which, nonetheless, represents a commitment to a specific selection of ethical and social values. Risk assessment should not be interpreted as a primary guide to decision unless the specific values incorporated into its concept of risk are stated explicitly and justified philosophically. Such a statement would allow value questions which have been sublimated by the factual tone of the analytic techniques to be debated on clear, social and ethical grounds

  9. Assessment of one dimensional reflood model in REFLA/TRAC code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Akimoto, Hajime; Ohnuki, Akira; Murao, Yoshio

    1993-12-01

    Post-test calculations for twelve selected SSRTF, SCTF and CCTF tests were performed to assess the predictive capability of the one-dimensional reflood model in the REFLA/TRAC code for core thermal behavior during the reflood in a PWR LOCA. Both core void fraction profile and clad temperature transients were predicted excellently by the REFLA/TRAC code including parameter effect of core inlet subcooling, core flooding rate, core configuration, core power, system pressure, initial clad temperature and so on. The peak clad temperature was predicted within an error of 50 K. Based on these assessment results, it is verified that the core thermal hydraulic behaviors during the reflood can be predicted excellently with the REFLA/TRAC code under various conditions where the reflood may occur in a PWR LOCA. (author)

  10. Development and assessment of the COBRA/RELAP5 code

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jeong, Jae Jun; Ha, Kwi Seok; Sim, Seok Ku

    1997-04-01

    The COBRA/RELAP5 code, a merged version of the COBRA-TF and RELAP5/MOD3.2 codes, has been developed to combine the realistic three-dimensional reactor vessel model of COBRA-TF with RELAP5/MOD3, thus to produce an advanced system analysis code with a multidimensional thermal-hydraulic module. This report provides the integration scheme of the two codes and the results of developmental assessments. These includes single channel tests, manometric flow oscillation problem, THTF Test 105, and LOFT L2-3 large-break loss-of-coolant experiment. From the single channel tests the integration scheme and its implementation were proven to be valid. Other simulation results showed good agreement with the experiments. The computational speed was also satisfactory. So it is confirmed that COBRA/RELAP5 can be a promising tool for analysis of complicated, multidimensional two-phase flow transients. The area of further improvements in the code integration are also identified. This report also serves as a user`s manual for the COBRA/RELAP5 code. (author). 6 tabs., 20 figs., 20 refs.

  11. From text to codings: intercoder reliability assessment in qualitative content analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burla, Laila; Knierim, Birte; Barth, Jurgen; Liewald, Katharina; Duetz, Margreet; Abel, Thomas

    2008-01-01

    High intercoder reliability (ICR) is required in qualitative content analysis for assuring quality when more than one coder is involved in data analysis. The literature is short of standardized procedures for ICR procedures in qualitative content analysis. To illustrate how ICR assessment can be used to improve codings in qualitative content analysis. Key steps of the procedure are presented, drawing on data from a qualitative study on patients' perspectives on low back pain. First, a coding scheme was developed using a comprehensive inductive and deductive approach. Second, 10 transcripts were coded independently by two researchers, and ICR was calculated. A resulting kappa value of .67 can be regarded as satisfactory to solid. Moreover, varying agreement rates helped to identify problems in the coding scheme. Low agreement rates, for instance, indicated that respective codes were defined too broadly and would need clarification. In a third step, the results of the analysis were used to improve the coding scheme, leading to consistent and high-quality results. The quantitative approach of ICR assessment is a viable instrument for quality assurance in qualitative content analysis. Kappa values and close inspection of agreement rates help to estimate and increase quality of codings. This approach facilitates good practice in coding and enhances credibility of analysis, especially when large samples are interviewed, different coders are involved, and quantitative results are presented.

  12. Dutch Risk Assessment tools

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Venema, A.

    2015-01-01

    The ‘Risico- Inventarisatie- en Evaluatie-instrumenten’ is the name for the Dutch risk assessment (RA) tools. A RA tool can be used to perform a risk assessment including an evaluation of the identified risks. These tools were among the first online risk assessment tools developed in Europe. The

  13. Improvement of Off-site Dose Assessment Code for Operating Nuclear Power Plant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Juyub; Kim, Juyoul; Shin, Kwangyoung [FNC Technology Co. Ltd., Yongin (Korea, Republic of); You, Songjae; Moon, Jongyi [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-05-15

    XOQDOQ code which calculates atmospheric Dispersion factor was included into INDAC also. A research on the improvement of off-site dose assessment system for an operating nuclear power plant was performed by KINS in 2011. As a result, following improvements were derived: - Separation of dose assessment for new and existing facilities - Update of food ingestion data - Consideration of multi-unit operation and so on In order to reflect the results, INDAC is under modification. INDAC is an integrated dose assessment code for an operating nuclear power plant and consists of three main modules: XOQDOQ, GASDOS and LIQDOS. The modules are under modification in order to improve the accuracy of assessment and usability. Assessment points for multi-unit release can be calculated through the improved code and the method on dose assessment for multi-unit release has been modified, so that the dose assessment result of multi-unit site becomes more realistic by relieving excessive conservatism. Finally, as the accuracy of calculation modules has been improved, the reliability of dose assessment result has been strengthened.

  14. The California Multimedia Risk Assessment Protocol for Alternative Fuels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatch, T.; Ginn, T. R.; McKone, T. E.; Rice, D. W.

    2013-12-01

    Any new fuel in California requires approval by the state agencies overseeing human and environmental health. In order to provide a systematic evaluation of new fuel impacts, California now requires a multimedia risk assessment (MMRA) for fuel approval. The fuel MMRA involves all relevant state agencies including: the California Air Resources Board (CARB), the State Water Resources Control Board (SWRCB), the Office of Environmental Health Hazards Assessment (OEHHA), and the Department of Toxic Substances Control (DTSC) overseen by the California Environmental Protection Agency (CalEPA). The lead agency for MMRAs is the CARB. The original law requiring a multimedia assessment is California Health and Safety Code 43830.8. In addition, the low carbon fuel standard (LCFS), the Global Warming Solutions Act (AB32), and the Verified Diesel Emission Control Strategy (VDECS) have provisions that can require a multimedia assessment. In this presentation, I give an overview of the California multimedia risk assessment (MMRA) for new fuels that has been recently developed and applied to several alternative fuels. The objective of the California MMRA is to assess risk of potential impacts of new fuels to multiple environmental media including: air, water, and soil. Attainment of this objective involves many challenges, including varying levels of uncertainty, relative comparison of incommensurate risk factors, and differing levels of priority assigned to risk factors. The MMRA is based on a strategy of relative risk assessment and flexible accommodation of distinct and diverse fuel formulations. The approach is tiered by design, in order to allow for sequentially more sophisticated investigations as knowledge gaps are identified and re-prioritized by the ongoing research. The assessment also involves peer review in order to provide coupling between risk assessment and stakeholder investment, as well as constructive or confrontational feedback. The multimedia assessment

  15. Methodology, status, and plans for development and assessment of the RELAP5 code

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnson, G.W.; Riemke, R.A. [Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    1997-07-01

    RELAP/MOD3 is a computer code used for the simulation of transients and accidents in light-water nuclear power plants. The objective of the program to develop and maintain RELAP5 was and is to provide the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission with an independent tool for assessing reactor safety. This paper describes code requirements, models, solution scheme, language and structure, user interface validation, and documentation. The paper also describes the current and near term development program and provides an assessment of the code`s strengths and limitations.

  16. State of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Conrad, J.

    1978-03-01

    In view of the growing importance assumed in recent years by scientific work on the calculation, quantification, evaluation and acceptance as well as behavior in the face of risks in general and more specifically, the risks of large industrial plants, the report attempts to provide a survey of the current situation, results and evaluation of this new branch of research, risk assessment. The emphasis of the report is on the basic discussion and criticism of the theoretical and methodological approaches used in the field of risk assessment (section 3). It is concerned above all with - methodical problems of determining and quantifying risks (3.1) - questions of the possibility of risk evaluation and comp arison (3.1, 3.2) - the premises of normative and empirical studies on decision making under risk (3.2, 3.3) - investigations into society's acceptance of risks involved in the introduction of new technologies (3.4) - attempts to combine various aspects of the field of risk assessment in a unified concept (3.5, 3.6, 3.7). Because risk assessment is embedded in the framework of decision theory and technology assessment, it can be implicitly evaluated at a more general level within this framework, as far as its possibilities and weaknesses of method and application are concerned (section 4). Sections 2 and 5 deal with the social context of origin and utilization of risk assessment. Finally, an attempt is made at a summary indicating the possible future development of risk assessment. (orig./HP) [de

  17. Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage.

  18. Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caskey, Susan Adele [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Gaudioso, Jennifer M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Wagner, Stefan M. [Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, MB (Canada). Canadian Science Centre for Human and Animal Health (CSCHAH); Shigematsu, Mika [National Inst. of Infectious Diseases (NIID), Tokyo (Japan); Risi, George [Infectious Disease Specialists, P.C, Missoula, MT (United States); Kozlovac, Joe [US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA)., Beltsville, MD (United States); Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke [Statens Serum Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Prat, Esmeralda [Bayer CropScience, Monheim am Rhein (Germany)

    2010-10-01

    Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.

  19. Preliminary risk assessment of Power Plant Plomin site contaminated by radioactive slag and ash

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skanata, D.; Sinka, D.; Lokner, V.; Schaller, A.

    1996-01-01

    There is a certain number of radioactively contaminated sites in the Republic of Croatia, one of them being known as Power Plant Plomin site, which contains radioactive slag and ash. Due to a relatively high quantity of the deposited material, as well as relatively high population density of the neighbouring area, it is very important to assess the impact of the site on human health and environment. Using RESRAD computer code and PATHRAE method a preliminary assessment of doses and radiation risks for the workers who spend most of their working day at the pile has been performed. PATHRAE method has also been used for the assessment of radiation risks for the neighbouring population. The assessment is preliminary in its character due to the lack of input data. On the basis of assessment results, recommendations are being given comprising measurements to be taken with a view to coming up with the final risk assessment, as well as protective measures which should be undertaken in the meantime. (author)

  20. Low-level waste shallow burial assessment code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fields, D.E.; Little, C.A.; Emerson, C.J.

    1981-01-01

    PRESTO (Prediction of Radiation Exposures from Shallow Trench Operationns) is a computer code developed under United States Environmental Protection Agency funding to evaluate possible health effects from radionuclide releases from shallow, radioctive-waste disposal trenches and from areas contaminated with operational spillage. The model is intended to predict radionuclide transport and the ensuing exposure and health impact to a stable, local population for a 1000-year period following closure of the burial grounds. Several classes of submodels are used in PRESTO to represent scheduled events, unit system responses, and risk evaluation processes. The code is modular to permit future expansion and refinement. Near-surface transport mechanisms considered in the PRESTO code are cap failure, cap erosion, farming or reclamation practices, human intrusion, chemical exchange within an active surface soil layer, contamination from trench overflow, and dilution by surface streams. Subsurface processes include infiltration and drainage into the trench, the ensuing solubilization of radionuclides, and chemical exchange between trench water and buried solids. Mechanisms leading to contaminated outflow include trench overflow and downwad vertical percolation. If the latter outflow reaches an aquifer, radiological exposure from irrigation or domestic consumption is considered. Airborne exposure terms are evaluated using the Gaussian plume atmospheric transport formulation as implemented by Fields and Miller

  1. Methodology, status and plans for development and assessment of TUF and CATHENA codes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luxat, J.C.; Liu, W.S.; Leung, R.K. [Ontario Hydro, Toronto (Canada)] [and others

    1997-07-01

    An overview is presented of the Canadian two-fluid computer codes TUF and CATHENA with specific focus on the constraints imposed during development of these codes and the areas of application for which they are intended. Additionally a process for systematic assessment of these codes is described which is part of a broader, industry based initiative for validation of computer codes used in all major disciplines of safety analysis. This is intended to provide both the licensee and the regulator in Canada with an objective basis for assessing the adequacy of codes for use in specific applications. Although focused specifically on CANDU reactors, Canadian experience in developing advanced two-fluid codes to meet wide-ranging application needs while maintaining past investment in plant modelling provides a useful contribution to international efforts in this area.

  2. Methodology, status and plans for development and assessment of TUF and CATHENA codes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luxat, J.C.; Liu, W.S.; Leung, R.K.

    1997-01-01

    An overview is presented of the Canadian two-fluid computer codes TUF and CATHENA with specific focus on the constraints imposed during development of these codes and the areas of application for which they are intended. Additionally a process for systematic assessment of these codes is described which is part of a broader, industry based initiative for validation of computer codes used in all major disciplines of safety analysis. This is intended to provide both the licensee and the regulator in Canada with an objective basis for assessing the adequacy of codes for use in specific applications. Although focused specifically on CANDU reactors, Canadian experience in developing advanced two-fluid codes to meet wide-ranging application needs while maintaining past investment in plant modelling provides a useful contribution to international efforts in this area

  3. Transportation radiological risk assessment for the programmatic environmental impact statement: An overview of methodologies, assumptions, and input parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monette, F.; Biwer, B.; LePoire, D.; Chen, S.Y.

    1994-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy is considering a broad range of alternatives for the future configuration of radioactive waste management at its network of facilities. Because the transportation of radioactive waste is an integral component of the management alternatives being considered, the estimated human health risks associated with both routine and accident transportation conditions must be assessed to allow a complete appraisal of the alternatives. This paper provides an overview of the technical approach being used to assess the radiological risks from the transportation of radioactive wastes. The approach presented employs the RADTRAN 4 computer code to estimate the collective population risk during routine and accident transportation conditions. Supplemental analyses are conducted using the RISKIND computer code to address areas of specific concern to individuals or population subgroups. RISKIND is used for estimating routine doses to maximally exposed individuals and for assessing the consequences of the most severe credible transportation accidents. The transportation risk assessment is designed to ensure -- through uniform and judicious selection of models, data, and assumptions -- that relative comparisons of risk among the various alternatives are meaningful. This is accomplished by uniformly applying common input parameters and assumptions to each waste type for all alternatives. The approach presented can be applied to all radioactive waste types and provides a consistent and comprehensive evaluation of transportation-related risk

  4. 2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA has announced The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OHApril 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!The Annual Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference is a unique meeting where several Government Agencies come together to discuss toxicology and risk assessment issues that are not only of concern to the government, but also to a broader audience including academia and industry. The theme of this year's conference is Emerging Issues and Challenges in Risk Assessment and the preliminary agenda includes: Plenary Sessions and prominent speakers (tentative) include: Issues of Emerging Chemical ContaminantsUncertainty and Variability in Risk Assessment Use of Mechanistic data in IARC evaluationsParallel Sessions:Uncertainty and Variability in Dose-Response Assessment Recent Advances in Toxicity and Risk Assessment of RDX The Use of Epidemiologic Data for Risk Assessment Applications Cumulative Health Risk Assessment:

  5. Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    How the EPA conducts risk assessment to protect human health and the environment. Several assessments are included with the guidelines, models, databases, state-based RSL Tables, local contacts and framework documents used to perform these assessments.

  6. Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

    2006-01-01

    Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of

  7. An Assessment of Risk and Risk Management Information Disclosure of Companies Listed in Nasdaq OMX Baltic and Euronext Brussels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dalia Kolmatsui

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The main goal of this paper is to discuss theoretically and to evaluate empirically the differences of risk and risk management information disclosure (RRMID among companies listed in Nasdaq OMX Baltic and Euronext Brussels and to determine factors influencing such differences. The authors use analysis and systemization of scientific literature, induction, content analysis and coding procedure for risk and risk management information disclosure assessment, as well as correlation and regression analyses. The results suggest that companies listed in Euronext Brussels disclose more risk and risk management (RRM information; RRM related disclosures are more qualitative, focused on past or present events and have a neutral meaning in both markets. Companies also disclose more information about risks themselves than about risk management. Finally, only companies’ size and presence of audit committee are significant factors influencing RRMID.

  8. RISKAP: a computer code for analysis of increased risk to arbitrary populations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leggett, R.W.

    1986-06-01

    The computer code RISKAP is used to estimate risk to a population exposed to radioactivity. Risk is measured in terms of the expected number of premature deaths resulting from radiogenic cancers, the number of years of life lost as a result of these deaths, and the average number of years of life lost per premature death. Radiation doses are used to compute an annual, age-specific risk of premature cancer death, based on a dose-response function selected by the user. Calculations of premature radiation deaths, deaths from all causes, and the new age distribution of the population are performed for one-year intervals. RISKAP has been designed to accommodate latency and plateau periods that vary with age at exposure and risk functions that vary with age at exposure as well as time after exposure. RISKAP allows the use of a linear, quadratic, or linear-quadratic dose-response function, although the code is structured so that the user may include an exponential factor or substitute any preferred dose-response function

  9. Introduction and preparation of the nuclear fuel cycle facility risk analysis code: STAR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nomura, Yasushi

    1990-09-01

    STAR code is a computer program, by which one can perform the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) for the nuclear fuel cycle facility in both the normal and the accidental event of environmental radioactive material release. This code was originally developed by NUKEM GmbH in West Germany as a fruit of the PSE (Projekt Sicherheitsstudien Entsorgung) aiming at R and D of safety analysis methods for use in nuclear fuel cycle facilities such as reprocessing plants. In JAERI, efforts have been made to research and develop safety assessment methods applicable to the accidental situations assumed to happen in the reprocessing plants. In this line of objectives, the STAR code was introduced from NUKEM GmbH in 1986 and, since then, has been improved and prepared to add an ability to analyze public radiation exposure by released activities from the plants. At the first stage of this code preparation, the program conversion was made to adapt the STAR code, originally operative on IBM-compatible PC's and Hewlett Packard 7550A plotters, to NEC PC 9801RX and NEC PR 602R page printers installed in the Fuel Cycle Safety Assessment Laboratory of JAERI. This report describes calculational performances of the STAR code, results of the improvement and preparation works together with input/output data format in illustration of a sample HALW (High Activity Liquid Waste) tank PSA problem, thus making a users' manual for the STAR code. (author)

  10. Implementation of computer codes for performance assessment of the Republic repository of LLW/ILW Mochovce

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hanusik, V.; Kopcani, I.; Gedeon, M.

    2000-01-01

    This paper describes selection and adaptation of computer codes required to assess the effects of radionuclide release from Mochovce Radioactive Waste Disposal Facility. The paper also demonstrates how these codes can be integrated into performance assessment methodology. The considered codes include DUST-MS for source term release, MODFLOW for ground-water flow and BS for transport through biosphere and dose assessment. (author)

  11. New "Risk-Targeted" Seismic Maps Introduced into Building Codes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luco, Nicholas; Garrett, B.; Hayes, J.

    2012-01-01

    Throughout most municipalities of the United States, structural engineers design new buildings using the U.S.-focused International Building Code (IBC). Updated editions of the IBC are published every 3 years. The latest edition (2012) contains new "risk-targeted maximum considered earthquake" (MCER) ground motion maps, which are enabling engineers to incorporate a more consistent and better defined level of seismic safety into their building designs.

  12. Real-time Color Codes for Assessing Learning Process

    OpenAIRE

    Dzelzkalēja, L; Kapenieks, J

    2016-01-01

    Effective assessment is an important way for improving the learning process. There are existing guidelines for assessing the learning process, but they lack holistic digital knowledge society considerations. In this paper the authors propose a method for real-time evaluation of students’ learning process and, consequently, for quality evaluation of teaching materials both in the classroom and in the distance learning environment. The main idea of the proposed Color code method (CCM) is to use...

  13. RESRAD for Radiological Risk Assessment. Comparison with EPA CERCLA Tools - PRG and DCC Calculators

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yu, C. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Cheng, J. -J. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Kamboj, S. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

    2015-07-01

    The purpose of this report is two-fold. First, the risk assessment methodology for both RESRAD and the EPA’s tools is reviewed. This includes a review of the EPA’s justification for 2 using a dose-to-risk conversion factor to reduce the dose-based protective ARAR from 15 to 12 mrem/yr. Second, the models and parameters used in RESRAD and the EPA PRG and DCC Calculators are compared in detail, and the results are summarized and discussed. Although there are suites of software tools in the RESRAD family of codes and the EPA Calculators, the scope of this report is limited to the RESRAD (onsite) code for soil contamination and the EPA’s PRG and DCC Calculators also for soil contamination.

  14. Hanford Site's Integrated Risk Assessment Program: No-intervention risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahaffey, J.A.; Dukelow, J.S. Jr.; Stenner, R.D.

    1994-08-01

    The long-term goal of the Integrated Risk Assessment program (IRAP) is to estimate risks to workers, the public, organizations, and groups with reserved rights to Site access, the ecosystem, and natural resources to aid in managing environmental restoration and waste management at the Hanford Site. For each of these, information is needed about current risks, risks during cleanup, and endstate risks. The objective is three-fold: to determine if and when to remediate, and to what extent; to identify information unavailable but needed to make better cleanup decisions; to establish technology performance criteria for achieving desired cleanup levels; to understand costs and benefits of activities from a Site-wide perspective. The no-intervention risk, assessment is the initial evaluation of public health risks conducted under IRAP. The objective is to identify types of activities that the US Department of Energy (DOE) must accomplish for closure of the Hanford Site, defined as no further DOE intervention. There are two primary conclusions from the no-intervention risk assessment. First, some maintenance and operations activities at Hanford must be continued to protect the public from grave risks. However, when large Hanford expenditures are compared to cleanup progress, funds expended for maintenance and operations must be put in proper perspective. Second, stakeholder's emphasis on public risks at Hanford, as indicated by remediation priorities, are not in line with those estimated. The focus currently is on compliance with regulations, and on dealing with issues which are visible to stakeholders

  15. Compilation of documented computer codes applicable to environmental assessment of radioactivity releases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoffman, F.O.; Miller, C.W.; Shaeffer, D.L.; Garten, C.T. Jr.; Shor, R.W.; Ensminger, J.T.

    1977-04-01

    The objective of this paper is to present a compilation of computer codes for the assessment of accidental or routine releases of radioactivity to the environment from nuclear power facilities. The capabilities of 83 computer codes in the areas of environmental transport and radiation dosimetry are summarized in tabular form. This preliminary analysis clearly indicates that the initial efforts in assessment methodology development have concentrated on atmospheric dispersion, external dosimetry, and internal dosimetry via inhalation. The incorporation of terrestrial and aquatic food chain pathways has been a more recent development and reflects the current requirements of environmental legislation and the needs of regulatory agencies. The characteristics of the conceptual models employed by these codes are reviewed. The appendixes include abstracts of the codes and indexes by author, key words, publication description, and title

  16. Does a code make a difference – assessing the English code of practice on international recruitment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mensah Kwadwo

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background This paper draws from research completed in 2007 to assess the effect of the Department of Health, England, Code of Practice for the international recruitment of health professionals. The Department of Health in England introduced a Code of Practice for international recruitment for National Health Service employers in 2001. The Code required National Health Service employers not to actively recruit from low-income countries, unless there was government-to-government agreement. The Code was updated in 2004. Methods The paper examines trends in inflow of health professionals to the United Kingdom from other countries, using professional registration data and data on applications for work permits. The paper also provides more detailed information from two country case studies in Ghana and Kenya. Results Available data show a considerable reduction in inflow of health professionals, from the peak years up to 2002 (for nurses and 2004 (for doctors. There are multiple causes for this decline, including declining demand in the United Kingdom. In Ghana and Kenya it was found that active recruitment was perceived to have reduced significantly from the United Kingdom, but it is not clear the extent to which the Code was influential in this, or whether other factors such as a lack of vacancies in the United Kingdom explains it. Conclusion Active international recruitment of health professionals was an explicit policy intervention by the Department of Health in England, as one key element in achieving rapid staffing growth, particularly in the period 2000 to 2005, but the level of international recruitment has dropped significantly since early 2006. Regulatory and education changes in the United Kingdom in recent years have also made international entry more difficult. The potential to assess the effect of the Code in England is constrained by the limitations in available databases. This is a crucial lesson for those considering a

  17. 78 FR 55245 - Activities and Methodology for Assessing Compliance With Building Energy Codes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-10

    ...-0036] Activities and Methodology for Assessing Compliance With Building Energy Codes AGENCY: Office of... available to states to evaluate compliance with building energy codes and general approaches towards... building energy codes and general approaches towards compliance. The comment period ended on September 5...

  18. Chemical Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    This course is aimed at providing an overview of the fundamental guiding principles and general methods used in chemical risk assessment. Chemical risk assessment is a complex and ever-evolving process. These principles and methods have been organized by the National Research Cou...

  19. Scenario sensitivity analyses performed on the PRESTO-EPA LLW risk assessment models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bandrowski, M.S.

    1988-01-01

    The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is currently developing standards for the land disposal of low-level radioactive waste. As part of the standard development, EPA has performed risk assessments using the PRESTO-EPA codes. A program of sensitivity analysis was conducted on the PRESTO-EPA codes, consisting of single parameter sensitivity analysis and scenario sensitivity analysis. The results of the single parameter sensitivity analysis were discussed at the 1987 DOE LLW Management Conference. Specific scenario sensitivity analyses have been completed and evaluated. Scenario assumptions that were analyzed include: site location, disposal method, form of waste, waste volume, analysis time horizon, critical radionuclides, use of buffer zones, and global health effects

  20. An integrated risk assessment approach: Risk assessment in the programmatic environmental impact statement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morris, J.M.

    1994-01-01

    The following paper is an informal summary of salient points made in the presentation entitled open-quotes An Integrated Risk Assessment Approach: Risk Assessment in the Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS).close quotes. This presentation was given at the U.S. DOE Integrated Planning Workshop in Denver, Colorado on June 2, 1994. Integrated decision analysis is very important in environmental restoration and waste management in the evaluation of such things as land use planning, waste load forecasting, cost analyses, and technology development activities. Integrated risk assessment is an approach that addresses multiple components of risk, including: risks from surplus facilities as well as typical environmental restoration sites, risks to the public, risks to workers, ecological risk, risks before, during and after remediation activities, and others

  1. Use of product databases for risk assessment purposes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heinemeyer, Gerhard; Hahn, Axel

    2005-01-01

    Product information databases are important prerequisites for providing data to poison centers (PC) to give adequate advice in cases of poisonings and for preparation of statistics as annual reports. For risk assessment measures, they can help for exposure assessments and for priority setting. A product database is a set of information of product and substance names, compositions, and uses of products. Data are provided due to national regulations as well as to national and international agreements between industry, international associations, e.g. the European Association of Poison Centres and Clinical Toxicologists (EAPCCT), and clinical toxicology institutions. They have different contents, i.e. complete formulations, frame formulations, and material safety data sheets. For definite identification of products, the product name should be readily taken from the labels and must be similar to the names provided by electronic media as databases. Products should be classified according to their use. The first system that has been prepared for that purpose is the ATC classification for pharmaceuticals. For chemicals, several systems e.g. the WHO-IPCS classification code, exist; the EU technical guidance document for risk assessment of chemicals is mentioning use categories, and they are used on national levels as well. For risk assessment purposes, statistics of poisonings and other health hazards are important as well as information about exposure. Linking cases of poisonings with product data enables risk assessors to perform statistical evaluations about health effects due to product use categories which can be compared to product compositions. If products are categorized by their use, information about use characteristics, such as frequencies and durations, can be derived. Hence, product categories can be taken to characterize scenarios and thus help for model estimations of exposure and respective doses

  2. Risk assessment during transport of radioactive materials through the Suez Canal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabek, M. G.; El-Shinawy, R. M. K.; Gomaa, M.

    1997-03-01

    In this paper a study for risk assessment of the impact of transporting radioactive materials, during the period 1986-1992, through the Suez Canal of Egypt is given. The code RADTRAN-IV was used for this study. The results of the code, for a normal case, show that the transportation of low activity materials such as uranium (U 3O 8) represent the main items that contribute significantly to the collective dose within the Suez Canal area (Port-Said, Ismailia and Suez). The values of the annual collective dose due to transportation of all radionuclide materials was found to be at a maximum in Suez town and is equal to 5.04 × 10 -8 Man-Sv for the whole populations. If we only consider the workder at the harbour (estimated to be 50 persons), the value of the annual collective dose is about 3.33 × 10 -4 Man-Sv. These values are less than the exemption value of 1 Man-Sv recommended by the IAEA. For the accident case, the following pathways are considered by the code: ground-shine, direct inhalation, inhalation of resuspended material and cloud-shine. The total values of the estimated risks for each radionuclide material are presented in table form and, in addition, health effects (genetic effects, GE, and latent cancer fatality), LCF) are discussed. The calculated values of the radiological risks are very low for the three towns, showing that no radiation-induced early deaths are to be expected.

  3. Description and assessment of structural and temperature models in the FRAP-T6 code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siefken, L.J.

    1983-01-01

    The FRAP-T6 code was developed at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) for the purpose of calculating the transient performance of light water reactor fuel rods during reactor transients ranging from mild operational transients to severe hypothetical loss-of-coolant accidents. An important application of the FRAP-T6 code is to calculate the structural performance of fuel rod cladding. The capabilities of the FRAP-T6 code are assessed by comparisons of code calculations with the measurements of several hundred in-pile experiments on fuel rods. The results of the assessments show that the code accurately and efficiently models the structural and thermal response of fuel rods

  4. The relation of risk assessment and health impact assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ádám, Balázs; Gulis, Gabriel

    2013-01-01

    than assessing a present situation. As part of this process, however, methods applied in risk assessment are used. Risk assessment typically characterises relation of a well-defined risk factor to a well-defined health outcome. Within HIA usually several individual risk assessments are needed...... of the causal chain from the proposal through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The stepwise analysis, systematic prioritization and consideration of horizontal interactions between the causal pathways make it feasible to use widely recognized risk assessment methods in the HIA......The level and distribution of health risks in a society is substantially influenced by measures of various policies, programmes or projects. Risk assessment can evaluate the nature, likelihood and severity of an adverse effect. Health impact assessment (HIA) provides similar function when used...

  5. Assessment of cardiovascular risk.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2010-10-01

    Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most common cause of death worldwide. Usually atherosclerosis is caused by the combined effects of multiple risk factors. For this reason, most guidelines on the prevention of CVD stress the assessment of total CVD risk. The most intensive risk factor modification can then be directed towards the individuals who will derive the greatest benefit. To assist the clinician in calculating the effects of these multiple interacting risk factors, a number of risk estimation systems have been developed. This review address several issues regarding total CVD risk assessment: Why should total CVD risk be assessed? What risk estimation systems are available? How well do these systems estimate risk? What are the advantages and disadvantages of the current systems? What are the current limitations of risk estimation systems and how can they be resolved? What new developments have occurred in CVD risk estimation?

  6. Automatic Coding of Short Text Responses via Clustering in Educational Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zehner, Fabian; Sälzer, Christine; Goldhammer, Frank

    2016-01-01

    Automatic coding of short text responses opens new doors in assessment. We implemented and integrated baseline methods of natural language processing and statistical modelling by means of software components that are available under open licenses. The accuracy of automatic text coding is demonstrated by using data collected in the "Programme…

  7. Assessment of TRAC-PF1/MOD1 code for large break LOCA in PWR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Akimoto, Hajime; Ohnuki, Akira; Murao, Yoshio; Abe, Yutaka.

    1993-03-01

    As the first step of the REFLA/TRAC code development, the TRAC/PF1/MOD1 code has been assessed for various experiments that simulate postulated large-break loss-of-coolant accident (LBLOCA) in PWR to understand the predictive capability and to identify the problem areas of the code. The assessment calculations were performed for separate effect tests for critical flow, counter current flow, condensation at cold leg and reflood as well as integral tests to understand predictability for individual phenomena. This report summarizes results from the assessment calculations of the TRAC-PF1/MOD1 code for LBLOCA in PWR. The assessment calculations made clear the predictive capability and problem areas of the TRAC-PF1/MOD1 code for LBLOCA in PWR. The areas, listed below, should be improved for more realistic and effective simulation of LBLOCA in PWR: (1) core heat transfer model during blowdown, (2) ECC bypass model at downcomer during refill, (3) condensation model during accumulator injection, and (4) core thermal hydraulic model during reflood. (author) 57 refs

  8. Application of data analysis techniques to nuclear reactor systems code to accuracy assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kunz, R.F.; Kasmala, G.F.; Murray, C.J.; Mahaffy, J.H.

    2000-01-01

    An automated code assessment program (ACAP) has been developed by the authors to provide quantitative comparisons between nuclear reactor systems (NRS) code results and experimental measurements. This software was developed under subcontract to the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission for use in its NRS code consolidation efforts. In this paper, background on the topic of NRS accuracy and uncertainty assessment is provided which motivates the development of and defines basic software requirements for ACAP. A survey of data analysis techniques was performed, focusing on the applicability of methods in the construction of NRS code-data comparison measures. The results of this review process, which further defined the scope, user interface and process for using ACAP are also summarized. A description of the software package and several sample applications to NRS data sets are provided. Its functionality and ability to provide objective accuracy assessment figures are demonstrated. (author)

  9. SCDAP/RELAP5/MOD3 code development and assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allison, C.M.; Heath, C.H.; Siefken, L.J.; Hohorst, J.K.

    1991-01-01

    The SCDAP/RELAP5/MOD3 computer code is designed to describe the overall reactor coolant system (RCS) thermal-hydraulic response, core damage progression, and fission product release and transport during severe accidents. The code is being developed at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) under the primary sponsorship of the Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). SCDAP/RELAP5/MOD3, created in January, 1991, is the result of merging RELAP5/MOD3 with SCDAP and TRAP-MELT models from SCDAP/RELAP5/MOD2.5. The RELAP5 models calculate the overall RCS thermal-hydraulics, control system interactions, reactor kinetics, and the transport of noncondensible gases, fission products, and aerosols. The SCDAP models calculate the damage progression in the core structures, the formation, heatup, and melting of debris, and the creep rupture failure of the lower head and other RCS structures. The TRAP-MELT models calculate the deposition of fission products upon aerosols or structural surfaces; the formation, growth, or deposition of aerosols; and the evaporation of species from surfaces. The systematic assessment of modeling uncertainties in SCDAP/RELAP5 code is currently underway. This assessment includes (a) the evaluation of code-to-data comparisons using stand-alone SCDAP and SCDAP/RELAP5/MOD3, (b) the estimation of modeling and experimental uncertainties, and (c) the determination of the influence of those uncertainties on predicted severe accident behavior

  10. Assessment of the Fire Risk Levels in an Office Building and a Nightclub with Prescriptive Designs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yilmaz, D.; Steffensen, F.B.; Jomaas, Grunde

    2014-01-01

    A comparison of the risk level of an office building and a nightclub with code compliant prescriptive designs was conducted in order to evaluate whether an uniform safety level of the two occupancy types can be established. A risk assessment method using Monte Carlo simulations and 1- and 2-zone......-movement time and the movement time were adjusted for the required safe egress time (RSET) of the nightclub. The number of simulations required in order to obtain reliable results was considered sufficient at 20,000. The comparison of the risk profiles of the nightclub and the office building showed significant...... difference in risk levels, with that of the nightclub being substantially higher. The higher risk level in the nightclub is caused by a relatively fast mean value of the fire growth rate and the high number of occupants. Hence, the requirements in the prescriptive code do not ensure a similar safety level...

  11. Development and assessment of best estimate integrated safety analysis code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chung, Bub Dong; Lee, Young Jin; Hwang, Moon Kyu

    2007-03-01

    Improvement of the integrated safety analysis code MARS3.0 has been carried out and a multi-D safety analysis application system has been established. Iterative matrix solver and parallel processing algorithm have been introduced, and a LINUX version has been generated to enable MARS to run in cluster PCs. MARS variables and sub-routines have been reformed and modularised to simplify code maintenance. Model uncertainty analyses have been performed for THTF, FLECHT, NEPTUN, and LOFT experiments as well as APR1400 plant. Participations in international cooperation research projects such as OECD BEMUSE, SETH, PKL, BFBT, and TMI-2 have been actively pursued as part of code assessment efforts. The assessment, evaluation and experimental data obtained through international cooperation projects have been registered and maintained in the T/H Databank. Multi-D analyses of APR1400 LBLOCA, DVI Break, SLB, and SGTR have been carried out as a part of application efforts in multi-D safety analysis. GUI based 3D input generator has been developed for user convenience. Operation of the MARS Users Group (MUG) was continued and through MUG, the technology has been transferred to 24 organisations. A set of 4 volumes of user manuals has been compiled and the correction reports for the code errors reported during MARS development have been published

  12. Development and assessment of best estimate integrated safety analysis code

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chung, Bub Dong; Lee, Young Jin; Hwang, Moon Kyu (and others)

    2007-03-15

    Improvement of the integrated safety analysis code MARS3.0 has been carried out and a multi-D safety analysis application system has been established. Iterative matrix solver and parallel processing algorithm have been introduced, and a LINUX version has been generated to enable MARS to run in cluster PCs. MARS variables and sub-routines have been reformed and modularised to simplify code maintenance. Model uncertainty analyses have been performed for THTF, FLECHT, NEPTUN, and LOFT experiments as well as APR1400 plant. Participations in international cooperation research projects such as OECD BEMUSE, SETH, PKL, BFBT, and TMI-2 have been actively pursued as part of code assessment efforts. The assessment, evaluation and experimental data obtained through international cooperation projects have been registered and maintained in the T/H Databank. Multi-D analyses of APR1400 LBLOCA, DVI Break, SLB, and SGTR have been carried out as a part of application efforts in multi-D safety analysis. GUI based 3D input generator has been developed for user convenience. Operation of the MARS Users Group (MUG) was continued and through MUG, the technology has been transferred to 24 organisations. A set of 4 volumes of user manuals has been compiled and the correction reports for the code errors reported during MARS development have been published.

  13. Information needs for risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DeRosa, C.T.; Choudhury, H.; Schoeny, R.S.

    1990-12-31

    Risk assessment can be thought of as a conceptual approach to bridge the gap between the available data and the ultimate goal of characterizing the risk or hazard associated with a particular environmental problem. To lend consistency to and to promote quality in the process, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Carcinogenicity, Developmental Toxicity, Germ Cell Mutagenicity and Exposure Assessment, and Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures. The guidelines provide a framework for organizing the information, evaluating data, and for carrying out the risk assessment in a scientifically plausible manner. In the absence of sufficient scientific information or when abundant data are available, the guidelines provide alternative methodologies that can be employed in the risk assessment. 4 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  14. Coding Variation in ANGPTL4, LPL, and SVEP1 and the Risk of Coronary Disease

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stitziel, Nathan O; Stirrups, Kathleen E; Masca, Nicholas G D; Erdmann, Jeanette; Ferrario, Paola G; König, Inke R; Weeke, Peter E; Webb, Thomas R; Auer, Paul L; Schick, Ursula M; Lu, Yingchang; Zhang, He; Dube, Marie-Pierre; Goel, Anuj; Farrall, Martin; Peloso, Gina M; Won, Hong-Hee; Do, Ron; van Iperen, Erik; Kanoni, Stavroula; Kruppa, Jochen; Mahajan, Anubha; Scott, Robert A; Willenberg, Christina; Braund, Peter S; van Capelleveen, Julian C; Doney, Alex S F; Donnelly, Louise A; Asselta, Rosanna; Merlini, Piera A; Duga, Stefano; Marziliano, Nicola; Denny, Josh C; Shaffer, Christian M; El-Mokhtari, Nour Eddine; Franke, Andre; Gottesman, Omri; Heilmann, Stefanie; Hengstenberg, Christian; Hoffman, Per; Holmen, Oddgeir L; Hveem, Kristian; Jansson, Jan-Håkan; Jöckel, Karl-Heinz; Kessler, Thorsten; Kriebel, Jennifer; Laugwitz, Karl L; Marouli, Eirini; Martinelli, Nicola; McCarthy, Mark I; Van Zuydam, Natalie R; Meisinger, Christa; Esko, Tõnu; Mihailov, Evelin; Escher, Stefan A; Alvar, Maris; Moebus, Susanne; Morris, Andrew D; Müller-Nurasyid, Martina; Nikpay, Majid; Olivieri, Oliviero; Lemieux Perreault, Louis-Philippe; AlQarawi, Alaa; Robertson, Neil R; Akinsanya, Karen O; Reilly, Dermot F; Vogt, Thomas F; Yin, Wu; Asselbergs, Folkert W; Kooperberg, Charles; Jackson, Rebecca D; Stahl, Eli; Strauch, Konstantin; Varga, Tibor V; Waldenberger, Melanie; Zeng, Lingyao; Kraja, Aldi T; Liu, Chunyu; Ehret, George B; Newton-Cheh, Christopher; Chasman, Daniel I; Chowdhury, Rajiv; Ferrario, Marco; Ford, Ian; Jukema, J Wouter; Kee, Frank; Kuulasmaa, Kari; Nordestgaard, Børge G; Perola, Markus; Saleheen, Danish; Sattar, Naveed; Surendran, Praveen; Tregouet, David; Young, Robin; Howson, Joanna M M; Butterworth, Adam S; Danesh, John; Ardissino, Diego; Bottinger, Erwin P; Erbel, Raimund; Franks, Paul W; Girelli, Domenico; Hall, Alistair S; Hovingh, G Kees; Kastrati, Adnan; Lieb, Wolfgang; Meitinger, Thomas; Kraus, William E; Shah, Svati H; McPherson, Ruth; Orho-Melander, Marju; Melander, Olle; Metspalu, Andres; Palmer, Colin N A; Peters, Annette; Rader, Daniel; Reilly, Muredach P; Loos, Ruth J F; Reiner, Alex P; Roden, Dan M; Tardif, Jean-Claude; Thompson, John R; Wareham, Nicholas J; Watkins, Hugh; Willer, Cristen J; Kathiresan, Sekkar; Deloukas, Panos; Samani, Nilesh J; Schunkert, Heribert

    BACKGROUND: The discovery of low-frequency coding variants affecting the risk of coronary artery disease has facilitated the identification of therapeutic targets. METHODS: Through DNA genotyping, we tested 54,003 coding-sequence variants covering 13,715 human genes in up to 72,868 patients with

  15. Probabilistic risk assessment as an aid to risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garrick, B.J.

    1982-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessments are providing important insights into nuclear power plant safety. Their value is two-fold: first as a means of quantifying nuclear plant risk including contributors to risk, and second as an aid to risk management. A risk assessment provides an analytical plant model that can be the basis for performing meaningful decision analyses for controlling safety. It is the aspect of quantitative risk management that makes probabilistic risk assessment an important technical discipline of the future

  16. The Development of Severe Accident Codes at IRSN and Their Application to Support the Safety Assessment of EPR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caroli, Cataldo; Bleyer, Alexandre; Bentaib, Ahmed; Chatelard, Patrick; Cranga, Michel; Van Dorsselaere, Jean-Pierre

    2006-01-01

    IRSN uses a two-tier approach for development of codes analysing the course of a hypothetical severe accident (SA) in a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR): on one hand, the integral code ASTEC, jointly developed by IRSN and GRS, for fast-running and complete analysis of a sequence; on the other hand, detailed codes for best-estimate analysis of some phenomena such as ICARE/CATHARE, MC3D (for steam explosion), CROCO and TONUS. They have been extensively used to support the level 2 Probabilistic Safety Assessment of the 900 MWe PWR and, in general, for the safety analysis of the French PWR. In particular the codes ICARE/CATHARE, CROCO, MEDICIS (module of ASTEC) and TONUS are used to support the safety assessment of the European Pressurized Reactor (EPR). The ICARE/CATHARE code system has been developed for the detailed evaluation of SA consequences in a PWR primary system. It is composed of the coupling of the core degradation IRSN code ICARE2 and of the thermal-hydraulics French code CATHARE2. The CFD code CROCO describes the corium flow in the spreading compartment. Heat transfer to the surrounding atmosphere and to the basemat, leading to the possible formation of an upper and lower crust, basemat ablation and gas sparging through the flow are modelled. CROCO has been validated against a wide experimental basis, including the CORINE, KATS and VULCANO programs. MEDICIS simulates MCCI (Molten-Corium-Concrete-Interaction) using a lumped-parameter approach. Its models are being continuously improved through the interpretation of most MCCI experiments (OECD-CCI, ACE...). The TONUS code has been developed by IRSN in collaboration with CEA for the analysis of the hydrogen risk (both distribution and combustion) in the reactor containment. The analyses carried out to support the EPR safety assessment are based on a CFD formulation. At this purpose a low-Mach number multi-component Navier-Stokes solver is used to analyse the hydrogen distribution. Presence of air, steam and

  17. How could the replica method improve accuracy of performance assessment of channel coding?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kabashima, Yoshiyuki [Department of Computational Intelligence and Systems Science, Tokyo Institute of technology, Yokohama 226-8502 (Japan)], E-mail: kaba@dis.titech.ac.jp

    2009-12-01

    We explore the relation between the techniques of statistical mechanics and information theory for assessing the performance of channel coding. We base our study on a framework developed by Gallager in IEEE Trans. Inform. Theory IT-11, 3 (1965), where the minimum decoding error probability is upper-bounded by an average of a generalized Chernoff's bound over a code ensemble. We show that the resulting bound in the framework can be directly assessed by the replica method, which has been developed in statistical mechanics of disordered systems, whereas in Gallager's original methodology further replacement by another bound utilizing Jensen's inequality is necessary. Our approach associates a seemingly ad hoc restriction with respect to an adjustable parameter for optimizing the bound with a phase transition between two replica symmetric solutions, and can improve the accuracy of performance assessments of general code ensembles including low density parity check codes, although its mathematical justification is still open.

  18. Probabilistic risk assessment from potential exposures to the public applied for innovative nuclear installations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dvorzhak, Alla; Mora, Juan C.; Robles, Beatriz

    2016-01-01

    Potential exposures are those that may occur as a result of unanticipated operational performance or accidents. Potential exposure situations are probabilistic in nature because they depend on uncertain events such as equipment failure, operator errors or external initiators beyond the control of the operator. Consequently, there may exist a range of possible radiological impacts that need to be considered. In this paper a Level 3 Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) for a hypothetical scenario relevant to Innovative Nuclear Energy Systems (INS) was conducted using computer code MACCS (MELCOR Accident Consequence Code Systems). The acceptability of an INS was analyzed taking into account the general requirement that relocation or evacuation measures must not be necessary beyond the site boundary. In addition, deterministic modeling of the accident consequences for the critical meteorological conditions was carried out using the JRODOS decision support system (Real-time On-line Decision Support system for off-site emergency management in Europe). The approach used for dose and risk assessment from potential exposure of accidental releases and their comparison with acceptance criteria are presented. The methodology described can be used as input to the licensing procedure and engineering design considerations to help satisfy relevant health and environmental impact criteria for fission or fusion nuclear installations. - Highlights: • PSA Level-3 based on WinMACCS code is carried out for accidental release. • Family curves of percentiles for radiation exposure doses are constructed. • Risk indicators for potential exposure are defined. • Using of risk acceptance curve criteria is proposed for decision making process.

  19. MINI-TRAC code: a driver program for assessment of constitutive equations of two-fluid model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Akimoto, Hajime; Abe, Yutaka; Ohnuki, Akira; Murao, Yoshio

    1991-05-01

    MINI-TRAC code, a driver program for assessment of constitutive equations of two-fluid model, has been developed to perform assessment and improvement of constitutive equations of two-fluid model widely and efficiently. The MINI-TRAC code uses one-dimensional conservation equations for mass, momentum and energy based on the two-fluid model. The code can work on a personal computer because it can be operated with a core memory size less than 640 KB. The MINI-TRAC code includes constitutive equations of TRAC-PF1/MOD1 code, TRAC-BF1 code and RELAP5/MOD2 code. The code is modulated so that one can easily change constitutive equations to perform a test calculation. This report is a manual of the MINI-TRAC code. The basic equations, numerics, constitutive, equations included in the MINI-TRAC code will be described. The user's manual such as input description will be presented. The program structure and contents of main variables will also be mentioned in this report. (author)

  20. Methodology of environmental risk assessment management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saša T. Bakrač

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Successful protection of environment is mostly based on high-quality assessment of potential and present risks. Environmental risk management is a complex process which includes: identification, assessment and control of risk, namely taking measures in order to minimize the risk to an acceptable level. Environmental risk management methodology: In addition to these phases in the management of environmental risk, appropriate measures that affect the reduction of risk occurrence should be implemented: - normative and legal regulations (laws and regulations, - appropriate organizational structures in society, and - establishing quality monitoring of environment. The emphasis is placed on the application of assessment methodologies (three-model concept, as the most important aspect of successful management of environmental risk. Risk assessment methodology - European concept: The first concept of ecological risk assessment methodology is based on the so-called European model-concept. In order to better understand this ecological risk assessment methodology, two concepts - hazard and risk - are introduced. The European concept of environmental risk assessment has the following phases in its implementation: identification of hazard (danger, identification of consequences (if there is hazard, estimate of the scale of consequences, estimate of consequence probability and risk assessment (also called risk characterization. The European concept is often used to assess risk in the environment as a model for addressing the distribution of stressors along the source - path - receptor line. Risk assessment methodology - Canadian concept: The second concept of the methodology of environmental risk assessment is based on the so-called Canadian model-concept. The assessment of ecological risk includes risk arising from natural events (floods, extreme weather conditions, etc., technological processes and products, agents (chemical, biological, radiological, etc

  1. Strategic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derleth, Jason; Lobia, Marcus

    2009-01-01

    This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.

  2. Overview of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rimington, J.D.

    1992-01-01

    The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits

  3. Overview of risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rimington, J D [Health and Safety Executive (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits.

  4. [Urban ecological risk assessment: a review].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Mei-E; Chen, Wei-Ping; Peng, Chi

    2014-03-01

    With the development of urbanization and the degradation of urban living environment, urban ecological risks caused by urbanization have attracted more and more attentions. Based on urban ecology principles and ecological risk assessment frameworks, contents of urban ecological risk assessment were reviewed in terms of driven forces, risk resources, risk receptors, endpoints and integrated approaches for risk assessment. It was suggested that types and degrees of urban economical and social activities were the driven forces for urban ecological risks. Ecological functional components at different levels in urban ecosystems as well as the urban system as a whole were the risk receptors. Assessment endpoints involved in changes of urban ecological structures, processes, functional components and the integrity of characteristic and function. Social-ecological models should be the major approaches for urban ecological risk assessment. Trends for urban ecological risk assessment study should focus on setting a definite protection target and criteria corresponding to assessment endpoints, establishing a multiple-parameter assessment system and integrative assessment approaches.

  5. Radiological risk assessment for an urban area: Focusing on a drinking water contamination

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeong, Hyo-Joon; Hwang, Won-Tae; Kim, Eun-Han; Han, Moon-Hee

    2009-01-01

    This paper specifically discusses a water quality modeling and health risk assessment for cesium-137 to assess the potential and actual effects on human health from drinking water contaminated by a radiological terrorist attack in the Seoul metropolitan area, Korea. With respect to the source term caused by a terrorist attack, it was assumed that 50 TBq of cesium-137 was introduced into the Paldang Lake which is a single water resource for the Seoul metropolitan area. EFDC (Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code) model was used to calculate the hydrodynamic and water quality for the model domain, Paldang Lake. Mortality risk and morbid risk coefficients caused by the ingestion of tap water were used to assess a human health risk due to cesium-137. The transport of cesium-137 in the Paldang water system was mainly dependent on the flow streamlines and the effect of the dilution from the other branches. The mortality and morbidity risks due to the drinking water contamination by cesium-137 were 4.77 x 10 -7 and 6.92 x 10 -7 , respectively. Accordingly, it is very important to take appropriate countermeasures when radiological terrorist attacks have occurred at water resources to prevent radiological risks by radionuclides.

  6. [Forensic assessment of violence risk].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L

    2014-03-01

    Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

  7. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  8. Compatibility of global environmental assessment methods of buildings with an Egyptian energy code

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amal Kamal Mohamed Shamseldin

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Several environmental assessment methods of buildings had emerged over the world to set environmental classifications for buildings, such as the American method “Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design” (LEED the most widespread one. Several countries decided to put their own assessment methods to catch up with the previous orientation, such as Egypt. The main goal of putting the Egyptian method was to impose the voluntary local energy efficiency codes. Through a local survey, it was clearly noted that many of the construction makers in Egypt do not even know the local method, and whom are interested in the environmental assessment of buildings seek to apply LEED rather than anything else. Therefore, several questions appear about the American method compatibility with the Egyptian energy codes – that contain the most exact characteristics and requirements and give the outmost credible energy efficiency results for buildings in Egypt-, and the possibility of finding another global method that gives closer results to those of the Egyptian codes, especially with the great variety of energy efficiency measurement approaches used among the different assessment methods. So, the researcher is trying to find the compatibility of using non-local assessment methods with the local energy efficiency codes. Thus, if the results are not compatible, the Egyptian government should take several steps to increase the local building sector awareness of the Egyptian method to benefit these codes, and it should begin to enforce it within the building permits after a proper guidance and feedback.

  9. [Risk Assessment and Risk Management of Chemicals in China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Tie-yu; Zhou, Yun-qiao; Li, Qi-feng; Lü, Yong-long

    2016-02-15

    Risk assessment and risk management have been increasingly approved as an effective approach for appropriate disposal and scientific management of chemicals. This study systematically analyzed the risk assessment methods of chemicals from three aspects including health risk, ecological risk and regional risk. Based on the current situation of classification and management towards chemicals in China, a specific framework of risk management on chemicals was proposed by selecting target chemicals, predominant industries and related stakeholders as the objects. The results of the present study will provide scientific support for improving risk assessment and reasonable management of chemicals in China.

  10. Performance Objective for Tank Farm Closure Risk Assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MANN, F.M.; KNEPP, A.J.; BADDEN, J.

    2003-01-01

    To be meaningful, results from a numeric risk assessment of the consequences of an action must be compared against the standards for such an action. That is, before one disposes of waste or closes a facility with waste, one must show that the disposal or closure action protects the public health and safety and the environment. These standards are called performance objectives. Regulations requiring performing performance assessments, (whether federal ones like the Department of Energy [DOE] Order 435.1, Radioactive Waste Management and its implementing guides or Washington State ones like the regulations implementing the Washington Administrative Code [WAC] 173-340 ''Model Toxics Control Act - Cleanup''), usually require that the determination of performance objectives be one of the first steps performed. These performance objectives not only set comparison level for the numeric results, but also define the media, pathways, exposure scenarios (receptors), spatial locations, and times that the performance assessment must consider. Thus, a performance objective consists of a compliance level, place(s) of compliance, and time(s) of compliance. Performance objectives are not the levels that a regulatory agency will enforce in a permit or authorization. Those levels, often called enforcement levels, will be set in the permit or authorization. Rather, performance objectives are those levels against which the results of the numeric simulation will be compared to judge the success of the proposed cleanup or disposal actions. Additional comparison levels may be requested for information purposes, but are not officially part of the decision on the adequacy of the proposed action. To emphasize that the performance objectives discussed in this document are not regulatory performance objectives, the three components of the performance objective will be renamed in this document as assessment standard, point(s) of assessment, and time(s) of assessment. However, whenever

  11. Advancing methods for reliably assessing motivational interviewing fidelity using the motivational interviewing skills code.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lord, Sarah Peregrine; Can, Doğan; Yi, Michael; Marin, Rebeca; Dunn, Christopher W; Imel, Zac E; Georgiou, Panayiotis; Narayanan, Shrikanth; Steyvers, Mark; Atkins, David C

    2015-02-01

    The current paper presents novel methods for collecting MISC data and accurately assessing reliability of behavior codes at the level of the utterance. The MISC 2.1 was used to rate MI interviews from five randomized trials targeting alcohol and drug use. Sessions were coded at the utterance-level. Utterance-based coding reliability was estimated using three methods and compared to traditional reliability estimates of session tallies. Session-level reliability was generally higher compared to reliability using utterance-based codes, suggesting that typical methods for MISC reliability may be biased. These novel methods in MI fidelity data collection and reliability assessment provided rich data for therapist feedback and further analyses. Beyond implications for fidelity coding, utterance-level coding schemes may elucidate important elements in the counselor-client interaction that could inform theories of change and the practice of MI. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Coding Scheme for Assessment of Students’ Explanations and Predictions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihael Gojkošek

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available In the process of analyzing students’ explanations and predictions for interaction between brightness enhancement film and beam of white light, a need for objective and reliable assessment instrumentarose. Consequently, we developed a codingscheme that was mostly inspired by the rubrics for self-assessment of scientific abilities. In the paper we present the grading categories that were integrated in the coding scheme, and descriptions of criteria used for evaluation of students work. We report the results of reliability analysis of new assessment tool and present some examples of its application.

  13. Advanced Test Reactor probabilistic risk assessment methodology and results summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eide, S.A.; Atkinson, S.A.; Thatcher, T.A.

    1992-01-01

    The Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) Level 1 report documents a comprehensive and state-of-the-art study to establish and reduce the risk associated with operation of the ATR, expressed as a mean frequency of fuel damage. The ATR Level 1 PRA effort is unique and outstanding because of its consistent and state-of-the-art treatment of all facets of the risk study, its comprehensive and cost-effective risk reduction effort while the risk baseline was being established, and its thorough and comprehensive documentation. The PRA includes many improvements to the state-of-the-art, including the following: establishment of a comprehensive generic data base for component failures, treatment of initiating event frequencies given significant plant improvements in recent years, performance of efficient identification and screening of fire and flood events using code-assisted vital area analysis, identification and treatment of significant seismic-fire-flood-wind interactions, and modeling of large loss-of-coolant accidents (LOCAs) and experiment loop ruptures leading to direct damage of the ATR core. 18 refs

  14. Heap leach cyanide irrigation and risk to wildlife: Ramifications for the international cyanide management code.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donato, D B; Madden-Hallett, D M; Smith, G B; Gursansky, W

    2017-06-01

    Exposed cyanide-bearing solutions associated with gold and silver recovery processes in the mining industry pose a risk to wildlife that interact with these solutions. This has been documented with cyanide-bearing tailings storage facilities, however risks associated with heap leach facilities are poorly documented, monitored and audited. Gold and silver leaching heap leach facilities use cyanide, pH-stabilised, at concentrations deemed toxic to wildlife. Their design and management are known to result in exposed cyanide-bearing solutions that are accessible to and present a risk to wildlife. Monitoring of the presence of exposed solutions, wildlife interaction, interpretation of risks and associated wildlife deaths are poorly documented. This paper provides a list of critical monitoring criteria and attempts to predict wildlife guilds most at risk. Understanding the significance of risks to wildlife from exposed cyanide solutions is complex, involving seasonality, relative position of ponding, temporal nature of ponding, solution palatability, environmental conditions, in situ wildlife species inventory and provision of alternative drinking sources for wildlife. Although a number of heap leach operations are certified as complaint with the International Cyanide Management Code (Cyanide Code), these criteria are not considered by auditors nor has systematic monitoring regime data been published. Without systematic monitoring and further knowledge, wildlife deaths on heap leach facilities are likely to remain largely unrecorded. This has ramifications for those operations certified as compliance with the Cyanide Code. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Patient caries risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, Svante; Fontana, Margherita

    2009-01-01

    Risk assessment is an essential component in the decision-making process for the correct prevention and management of dental caries. Multiple risk factors and indicators have been proposed as targets in the assessment of risk of future disease, varying sometimes based on the age group at which...... they are targeted. Multiple reviews and systematic reviews are available in the literature on this topic. This chapter focusses primarily on results of reviews based on longitudinal studies required to establish the accuracy of caries risk assessment. These findings demonstrate that there is a strong body...... of evidence to support that caries experience is still, unfortunately, the single best predictor for future caries development. In young children, prediction models which include a variety of risk factors seem to increase the accuracy of the prediction, while the usefulness of additional risk factors...

  16. Building better environmental risk assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raymond eLayton

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERA for genetically modified (GM crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data, and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  17. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines. PMID:26301217

  18. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems - examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  19. Risk Assessment Stability: A Revalidation Study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment Instrument

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwalbe, Craig S.

    2009-01-01

    The actuarial method is the gold standard for risk assessment in child welfare, juvenile justice, and criminal justice. It produces risk classifications that are highly predictive and that may be robust to sampling error. This article reports a revalidation study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment instrument, an actuarial instrument for juvenile…

  20. Corporate Governance Scorecards : Assessing and Promoting the Implementation of Codes of Corporate Governance

    OpenAIRE

    International Finance Corporation

    2014-01-01

    This is a supplement to second IFC's toolkit: developing Corporate Governance codes of best practice. The focus of second toolkit is the development of codes of corporate governance. This supplement focuses narrowly on how to use scorecards to measure the observance and implementation of such codes. It does not cover the full panoply of governance assessment tools. This supplement provides...

  1. Risk assessment for transportation of radioactive material within the state of Idaho

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deng, C.; Oberg, S.G.; Downs, J.L.

    1996-01-01

    The State of Idaho and the U.S. DOE have agreed to a one year pilot program to review and analyze DOE's off-site transportation of radioactive materials within Idaho on a shipping-campaign basis. As a part of that effort, the State of Idaho INEL Oversight Program conducts independent transportation risk assessments. These risk assessments are performed for both highway and railroad shipments using the computer codes RADTRAN4 ,and RISKIND 1.11. Some input parameters are customized with. Idaho-specific data, such as population density, accident rates and meteorological data. The dose and risk (to the public, handlers, crew, etc.) are estimated for both incident free and accident scenarios. Source term files are being built for past, current, and future shipments in Idaho. These include transuranic waste. shipments to WIPP, low level waste, mixed waste, spent fuel, and high level waste. Each shipment is analyzed for two types of transportation route segments: county segments and ten-mile segments. Risk estimation for each county segment provides information for allocation of emergency preparedness resources. Risk estimation for each ten-mile segment helps to identify higher risk segments. The dose and risk results are presented in appropriate formats for various audiences. The quantitative risk measures are used to guide appropriate levels of emergency preparedness. GIS tools are being used to graphically present risk information to elected officials and to the general public

  2. BURYIT/ANALYZ: a computer package for assessment of radiological risk of low-level radioactive waste land disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fisher, J.E.; Cox, N.D.; Atwood, C.L.

    1984-11-01

    This report is a user's manual for a partially completed code for risk assessment of a low-level waste shallow-land burial site, to be used in the licensing of burial sites. This code is intended as a tool to be used for considering nuclide transport mechanisms, including atmospheric, groundwater, erosion, and infiltration to an underlying aquifer. It also calculates doses to individuals and the population through direct exposure, inhalation, and ingestion. The methodology of the risk assessment is based primarily on the response surface method of uncertainty analysis. The parameters of a model for predicting dose commitment due to a release are treated as statistical variables in order to compute statistical distributions for various dose commitment contributions. The likelihood of a release is also accounted for by statistically evaluating the arithmetic product of the dose commitment distributions with the probability of release occurrence. An example is given using the atmospheric transport pathway as modeled by a code called BURYIT. The framework for using other release pathways is described in this manual. Information on parameter uncertainties, reference site characteristics, and probabilities of release events is included

  3. Evaluation of severe accident risks: Quantification of major input parameters: MAACS [MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System] input

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sprung, J.L.; Jow, H-N; Rollstin, J.A.; Helton, J.C.

    1990-12-01

    Estimation of offsite accident consequences is the customary final step in a probabilistic assessment of the risks of severe nuclear reactor accidents. Recently, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission reassessed the risks of severe accidents at five US power reactors (NUREG-1150). Offsite accident consequences for NUREG-1150 source terms were estimated using the MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System (MACCS). Before these calculations were performed, most MACCS input parameters were reviewed, and for each parameter reviewed, a best-estimate value was recommended. This report presents the results of these reviews. Specifically, recommended values and the basis for their selection are presented for MACCS atmospheric and biospheric transport, emergency response, food pathway, and economic input parameters. Dose conversion factors and health effect parameters are not reviewed in this report. 134 refs., 15 figs., 110 tabs

  4. Psacoin level 1A intercomparison probabilistic system assessment code (PSAC) user group

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nies, A.; Laurens, J.M.; Galson, D.A.; Webster, S.

    1990-01-01

    This report describes an international code intercomparison exercise conducted by the NEA Probabilistic System Assessment Code (PSAC) User Group. The PSACOIN Level 1A exercise is the third of a series designed to contribute to the verification of probabilistic codes that may be used in assessing the safety of radioactive waste disposal systems or concepts. Level 1A is based on a more realistic system model than that used in the two previous exercises, and involves deep geological disposal concepts with a relatively complex structure of the repository vault. The report compares results and draws conclusions with regard to the use of different modelling approaches and the possible importance to safety of various processes within and around a deep geological repository. In particular, the relative significance of model uncertainty and data variability is discussed

  5. Code Verification Capabilities and Assessments in Support of ASC V&V Level 2 Milestone #6035

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Doebling, Scott William [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Budzien, Joanne Louise [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Ferguson, Jim Michael [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Harwell, Megan Louise [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Hickmann, Kyle Scott [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Israel, Daniel M. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Magrogan, William Richard III [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Singleton, Jr., Robert [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Srinivasan, Gowri [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Walter, Jr, John William [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Woods, Charles Nathan [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-09-26

    This document provides a summary of the code verification activities supporting the FY17 Level 2 V&V milestone entitled “Deliver a Capability for V&V Assessments of Code Implementations of Physics Models and Numerical Algorithms in Support of Future Predictive Capability Framework Pegposts.” The physics validation activities supporting this milestone are documented separately. The objectives of this portion of the milestone are: 1) Develop software tools to support code verification analysis; 2) Document standard definitions of code verification test problems; and 3) Perform code verification assessments (focusing on error behavior of algorithms). This report and a set of additional standalone documents serve as the compilation of results demonstrating accomplishment of these objectives.

  6. RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szabo Alina

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in the area and the professional expertise, this article outlines an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management reporting processes, by separating the risk in two main categories: strategic and operational risks. The focus is on risk prioritization and scoring; the final output will comprise a mix of strategic and operational (‘top 8-12’ risks, which should be used to establish the annual Internal Audit plan. Originality/value: By using an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management will eliminate the need for a separate Internal Audit risk assessment over prevailing risks. It will reduce the level of risk assessment overlap by different functions (Tax, Treasury, Information System over the same risk categories as a single methodology, is used and will align timings of risk assessment exercises. The risk prioritization by usage of risk and control scoring criteria highlights the combination between financial and non-financial impact criteria allowing risks that do not naturally lend themselves to a financial amount to be also assessed consistently. It is emphasized the usage of score method to prioritize the risks included in the annual audit plan in order to increase accuracy and timelines.

  7. Selection of a computer code for Hanford low-level waste engineered-system performance assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McGrail, B.P.; Mahoney, L.A.

    1995-10-01

    Planned performance assessments for the proposed disposal of low-level waste (LLW) glass produced from remediation of wastes stored in underground tanks at Hanford, Washington will require calculations of radionuclide release rates from the subsurface disposal facility. These calculations will be done with the aid of computer codes. Currently available computer codes were ranked in terms of the feature sets implemented in the code that match a set of physical, chemical, numerical, and functional capabilities needed to assess release rates from the engineered system. The needed capabilities were identified from an analysis of the important physical and chemical process expected to affect LLW glass corrosion and the mobility of radionuclides. The highest ranked computer code was found to be the ARES-CT code developed at PNL for the US Department of Energy for evaluation of and land disposal sites

  8. Subjective assessment of impairment in scale-space-coded images

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ridder, de H.; Majoor, G.M.M.

    1988-01-01

    Direct category scaling and a scaling procedure in accordance with Functional Measurement Theory (Anderson, 1982) have been used to assess impairment in scale-space-coded illlages, displayed on a black-and-white TV monitor. The image of a complex scene was passed through a Gaussian filter of limited

  9. Assessment of thema code against spreading experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spindler, B.; Veteau, J.M.; Cecco, L. de; Montanelli, P.; Pineau, D.

    2000-01-01

    In the frame work of severe accident research, the spreading code THEMA, developed at CEA/DRN, aims at predicting the spreading extent of molten core after a vessel melt-through. The code solves fluid balance equations integrated over the fluid depth for oxidic and/or metallic phases under the shallow water assumption, using a finite difference scheme. Solidification is taken into account through crust formation on the substrate and at contact with the surroundings, as well as increase of fluid viscosity with solid fraction in the melt. A separate energy equation is solved for the solid substrate, including possible ablation. The assessment of THEMA code against the spreading experiments performed in the framework of the corium spreading and coolability project of the European Union is presented. These experiments use either simulating materials at medium (RIT), or at high temperature (KATS), or corium (VULCANO, FARO), conducted at different mass flow rates and with large or low solidification interval. THEMA appears to be able to simulate the whole set of the experiments investigated. Comparison between experimental and computed spreading lengths and substrate temperatures are quite satisfactory. The results show a rather large sensitivity at mass flow rate and inlet temperature, indicating that, generally, efforts should be made to improve the accuracy of the measurements of such parameters in the experiments. (orig.)

  10. Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waterhouse, Rachel

    1992-01-01

    The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered

  11. Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Waterhouse, Rachel [Consumer' s Association, Health and Safety Commission (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered.

  12. Development of a dose assessment computer code for the NPP severe accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheong, Jae Hak

    1993-02-01

    A real-time emergency dose assessment computer code called KEDA (KAIST NPP Emergency Dose Assessment) has been developed for the NPP severe accident. A new mathematical model which can calculate cloud shine has been developed and implemented in the code. KEDA considers the specific Korean situations(complex topography, orientals' thyroid metabolism, continuous washout, etc.), and provides functions of dose-monitoring and automatic decision-making. To verify the code results, KEDA has been compared with an NRC officially certified code, RASCAL, for eight hypertical accident scenarios. Through the comparison, KEDA has been proved to provide reasonable results. Qualitative sensitivity analysis also the been performed for potentially important six input parameters, and the trends of the dose v.s. down-wind distance curve have been analyzed comparing with the physical phenomena occurred in the real atmosphere. The source term and meteorological conditions are turned out to be the most important input parameters. KEDA also has been applied to simulate Kori site and a hyperthetical accident with semi-real meteorological data has been simulated and analyzed

  13. Independent assessment of the TRAC-BD1/MOD1 computer code at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilson, G.E.; Charboneau, B.L.; Dallman, R.J.; Kullberg, C.M.; Wagner, K.C.; Wheatley, P.D.

    1984-01-01

    Under auspices of the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission, their primary boiling water reactor safety analysis code (TRAC-BWR) is being assessed with simulations of a wide range of experimental data. The FY-1984 assessment activities were associated with the latest version (TRAC-BD1/MOD1) of this code. Typical results of the assessment studies are given. Conclusions formulated from these results are presented. These calculations relate to the overall applicability of the current code to safety analysis, and to future work which would further enhance the code's quality and ease of use

  14. Using risk assessment in periodontics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodman, Alan J

    2014-08-01

    Risk assessment has become a regular feature in both dental practice and society as a whole, and principles used to assess risk in society are similar to those used in a clinical setting. Although the concept of risk assessment as a prognostic indicator for periodontal disease incidence and activity is well established in the management of periodontitis, the use of risk assessment to manage the practical treatment of periodontitis and its sequelae appears to have less foundation. A simple system of initial risk assessment - building on the use of the Basic Periodontal Examination (BPE), clinical, medical and social factors - is described, linked to protocols for delivering care suited to general dental practice and stressing the role of long-term supportive care. The risks of not treating the patient are considered, together with the possible causes of failure, and the problems of successful treatment are illustrated by the practical management of post-treatment recession.

  15. A total risk assessment methodology for security assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Auilar, Richard; Pless, Daniel J.; Kaplan, Paul Garry; Silva, Consuelo Juanita; Rhea, Ronald Edward; Wyss, Gregory Dane; Conrad, Stephen Hamilton

    2009-01-01

    Sandia National Laboratories performed a two-year Laboratory Directed Research and Development project to develop a new collaborative risk assessment method to enable decision makers to fully consider the interrelationships between threat, vulnerability, and consequence. A five-step Total Risk Assessment Methodology was developed to enable interdisciplinary collaborative risk assessment by experts from these disciplines. The objective of this process is promote effective risk management by enabling analysts to identify scenarios that are simultaneously achievable by an adversary, desirable to the adversary, and of concern to the system owner or to society. The basic steps are risk identification, collaborative scenario refinement and evaluation, scenario cohort identification and risk ranking, threat chain mitigation analysis, and residual risk assessment. The method is highly iterative, especially with regard to scenario refinement and evaluation. The Total Risk Assessment Methodology includes objective consideration of relative attack likelihood instead of subjective expert judgment. The 'probability of attack' is not computed, but the relative likelihood for each scenario is assessed through identifying and analyzing scenario cohort groups, which are groups of scenarios with comparable qualities to the scenario being analyzed at both this and other targets. Scenarios for the target under consideration and other targets are placed into cohort groups under an established ranking process that reflects the following three factors: known targeting, achievable consequences, and the resources required for an adversary to have a high likelihood of success. The development of these target cohort groups implements, mathematically, the idea that adversaries are actively choosing among possible attack scenarios and avoiding scenarios that would be significantly suboptimal to their objectives. An adversary who can choose among only a few comparable targets and scenarios (a

  16. Investigation and assessment of wall heat transfer correlations in SPACE code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Jung Woo; Kim, Kyung Doo; Moon, Sang Ki; Choi, Ki Yong; Park, Hyun Sik

    2010-06-01

    SPACE, which is a safety analysis code for nuclear power plants, has been developed to analyze the multidimensional, two-component and three-field flow. This code can be applied to safety analysis for approval which is thermal-hydraulic analysis to support the nuclear power station design, establishment of accident ease strategy, development of operating guide line, experiment plan and analysis. To do so, SPACE code has 12 wall heat transfer mode and the corresponding models and correlations to deal with the physical heat transfer phenomenon in wall surface. In this report, the physical correlation models regarding the wall heat transfer are explained and their performance is assessed against several SET

  17. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cathryn Clarke Murray

    Full Text Available The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such "indirect risks" can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their "at-risk status" designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but-by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here-they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within.

  18. Reliability and validity of a treatment fidelity assessment for motivational interviewing targeting sexual risk behaviors in people living with HIV/AIDS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seng, Elizabeth K; Lovejoy, Travis I

    2013-12-01

    This study psychometrically evaluates the Motivational Interviewing Treatment Integrity Code (MITI) to assess fidelity to motivational interviewing to reduce sexual risk behaviors in people living with HIV/AIDS. 74 sessions from a pilot randomized controlled trial of motivational interviewing to reduce sexual risk behaviors in people living with HIV were coded with the MITI. Participants reported sexual behavior at baseline, 3-month, and 6-months. Regarding reliability, excellent inter-rater reliability was achieved for measures of behavior frequency across the 12 sessions coded by both coders; global scales demonstrated poor intraclass correlations, but adequate percent agreement. Regarding validity, principle components analyses indicated that a two-factor model accounted for an adequate amount of variance in the data. These factors were associated with decreases in sexual risk behaviors after treatment. The MITI is a reliable and valid measurement of treatment fidelity for motivational interviewing targeting sexual risk behaviors in people living with HIV/AIDS.

  19. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with...

  20. Exploring the uncertainties in cancer risk assessment using the integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slob, Wout; Bakker, Martine I; Biesebeek, Jan Dirk Te; Bokkers, Bas G H

    2014-08-01

    Current methods for cancer risk assessment result in single values, without any quantitative information on the uncertainties in these values. Therefore, single risk values could easily be overinterpreted. In this study, we discuss a full probabilistic cancer risk assessment approach in which all the generally recognized uncertainties in both exposure and hazard assessment are quantitatively characterized and probabilistically evaluated, resulting in a confidence interval for the final risk estimate. The methodology is applied to three example chemicals (aflatoxin, N-nitrosodimethylamine, and methyleugenol). These examples illustrate that the uncertainty in a cancer risk estimate may be huge, making single value estimates of cancer risk meaningless. Further, a risk based on linear extrapolation tends to be lower than the upper 95% confidence limit of a probabilistic risk estimate, and in that sense it is not conservative. Our conceptual analysis showed that there are two possible basic approaches for cancer risk assessment, depending on the interpretation of the dose-incidence data measured in animals. However, it remains unclear which of the two interpretations is the more adequate one, adding an additional uncertainty to the already huge confidence intervals for cancer risk estimates. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  1. Analyses in Support of Risk-Informed Natural Gas Vehicle Maintenance Facility Codes and Standards: Phase II.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blaylock, Myra L.; LaFleur, Chris Bensdotter; Muna, Alice Baca; Ehrhart, Brian David

    2018-03-01

    Safety standards development for maintenance facilities of liquid and compressed natural gas fueled vehicles is required to ensure proper facility design and operating procedures. Standard development organizations are utilizing risk-informed concepts to develop natural gas vehicle (NGV) codes and standards so that maintenance facilities meet acceptable risk levels. The present report summarizes Phase II work for existing NGV repair facility code requirements and highlights inconsistencies that need quantitative analysis into their effectiveness. A Hazardous and Operability study was performed to identify key scenarios of interest using risk ranking. Detailed simulations and modeling were performed to estimate the location and behavior of natural gas releases based on these scenarios. Specific code conflicts were identified, and ineffective code requirements were highlighted and resolutions proposed. These include ventilation rate basis on area or volume, as well as a ceiling offset which seems ineffective at protecting against flammable gas concentrations. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The authors gratefully acknowledge Bill Houf (SNL -- Retired) for his assistance with the set-up and post-processing of the numerical simulations. The authors also acknowledge Doug Horne (retired) for his helpful discussions. We would also like to acknowledge the support from the Clean Cities program of DOE's Vehicle Technology Office.

  2. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mach, Megan E.; Martone, Rebecca G.; Singh, Gerald G.; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M. A.

    2016-01-01

    The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such “indirect risks” can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their “at-risk status” designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but—by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here—they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within. PMID:27632287

  3. Avalanche risk assessment in Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komarov, Anton; Seliverstov, Yury; Sokratov, Sergey; Glazovskaya, Tatiana; Turchaniniva, Alla

    2017-04-01

    The avalanche prone area covers about 3 million square kilometers or 18% of total area of Russia and pose a significant problem in most mountain regions of the country. The constant growth of economic activity, especially in the North Caucasus region and therefore the increased avalanche hazard lead to the demand of the large-scale avalanche risk assessment methods development. Such methods are needed for the determination of appropriate avalanche protection measures as well as for economic assessments during all stages of spatial planning of the territory. The requirement of natural hazard risk assessments is determined by the Federal Law of Russian Federation. However, Russian Guidelines (SP 11-103-97; SP 47.13330.2012) are not clearly presented concerning avalanche risk assessment calculations. A great size of Russia territory, vast diversity of natural conditions and large variations in type and level of economic development of different regions cause significant variations in avalanche risk values. At the first stage of research the small scale avalanche risk assessment was performed in order to identify the most common patterns of risk situations and to calculate full social risk and individual risk. The full social avalanche risk for the territory of country was estimated at 91 victims. The area of territory with individual risk values lesser then 1×10(-6) covers more than 92 % of mountain areas of the country. Within these territories the safety of population can be achieved mainly by organizational activities. Approximately 7% of mountain areas have 1×10(-6) - 1×10(-4) individual risk values and require specific mitigation measures to protect people and infrastructure. Territories with individual risk values 1×10(-4) and above covers about 0,1 % of the territory and include the most severe and hazardous mountain areas. The whole specter of mitigation measures is required in order to minimize risk. The future development of such areas is not recommended

  4. Risk assessment in international operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stricklin, Daniela L.

    2008-01-01

    During international peace-keeping missions, a diverse number of non-battle hazards may be encountered, which range from heavily polluted areas, endemic disease, toxic industrial materials, local violence, traffic, and even psychological factors. Hence, elevated risk levels from a variety of sources are encountered during deployments. With the emphasis within the Swedish military moving from national defense towards prioritization of international missions in atypical environments, the risk of health consequences, including long term health effects, has received greater consideration. The Swedish military is interested in designing an optimal approach for assessment of health threats during deployments. The Medical Intelligence group at FOI CBRN Security and Defence in Umea has, on request from and in collaboration with the Swedish Armed Forces, reviewed a variety of international health threat and risk assessment models for military operations. Application of risk assessment methods used in different phases of military operations will be reviewed. An overview of different international approaches used in operational risk management (ORM) will be presented as well as a discussion of the specific needs and constraints for health risk assessment in military operations. This work highlights the specific challenges of risk assessment that are unique to the deployment setting such as the assessment of exposures to a variety of diverse hazards concurrently

  5. Implications of probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cullingford, M.C.; Shah, S.M.; Gittus, J.H.

    1987-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is an analytical process that quantifies the likelihoods, consequences and associated uncertainties of the potential outcomes of postulated events. Starting with planned or normal operation, probabilistic risk assessment covers a wide range of potential accidents and considers the whole plant and the interactions of systems and human actions. Probabilistic risk assessment can be applied in safety decisions in design, licensing and operation of industrial facilities, particularly nuclear power plants. The proceedings include a review of PRA procedures, methods and technical issues in treating uncertainties, operating and licensing issues and future trends. Risk assessment for specific reactor types or components and specific risks (eg aircraft crashing onto a reactor) are used to illustrate the points raised. All 52 articles are indexed separately. (U.K.)

  6. Method for quantitative assessment of nuclear safety computer codes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dearien, J.A.; Davis, C.B.; Matthews, L.J.

    1979-01-01

    A procedure has been developed for the quantitative assessment of nuclear safety computer codes and tested by comparison of RELAP4/MOD6 predictions with results from two Semiscale tests. This paper describes the developed procedure, the application of the procedure to the Semiscale tests, and the results obtained from the comparison

  7. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.

  8. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms open-quote risk assessment close-quote and open-quote risk management close-quote are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of open-quotes... the most significant data and uncertainties...close quotes in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are open-quotes...those that define and explain the main risk conclusionsclose quotes. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation

  9. Advanced Test Reactor outage risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thatcher, T.A.; Atkinson, S.A.

    1997-01-01

    Beginning in 1997, risk assessment was performed for each Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) outage aiding the coordination of plant configuration and work activities (maintenance, construction projects, etc.) to minimize the risk of reactor fuel damage and to improve defense-in-depth. The risk assessment activities move beyond simply meeting Technical Safety Requirements to increase the awareness of risk sensitive configurations, to focus increased attention on the higher risk activities, and to seek cost-effective design or operational changes that reduce risk. A detailed probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) had been performed to assess the risk of fuel damage during shutdown operations including heavy load handling. This resulted in several design changes to improve safety; however, evaluation of individual outages had not been performed previously and many risk insights were not being utilized in outage planning. The shutdown PRA provided the necessary framework for assessing relative and absolute risk levels and assessing defense-in-depth. Guidelines were written identifying combinations of equipment outages to avoid. Screening criteria were developed for the selection of work activities to receive review. Tabulation of inherent and work-related initiating events and their relative risk level versus plant mode has aided identification of the risk level the scheduled work involves. Preoutage reviews are conducted and post-outage risk assessment is documented to summarize the positive and negative aspects of the outage with regard to risk. The risk for the outage is compared to the risk level that would result from optimal scheduling of the work to be performed and to baseline or average past performance

  10. GAR Global Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar

    2015-04-01

    Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.

  11. A long-term, integrated impact assessment of alternative building energy code scenarios in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu, Sha; Eom, Jiyong; Evans, Meredydd; Clarke, Leon

    2014-01-01

    China is the second largest building energy user in the world, ranking first and third in residential and commercial energy consumption. Beginning in the early 1980s, the Chinese government has developed a variety of building energy codes to improve building energy efficiency and reduce total energy demand. This paper studies the impact of building energy codes on energy use and CO 2 emissions by using a detailed building energy model that represents four distinct climate zones each with three building types, nested in a long-term integrated assessment framework GCAM. An advanced building stock module, coupled with the building energy model, is developed to reflect the characteristics of future building stock and its interaction with the development of building energy codes in China. This paper also evaluates the impacts of building codes on building energy demand in the presence of economy-wide carbon policy. We find that building energy codes would reduce Chinese building energy use by 13–22% depending on building code scenarios, with a similar effect preserved even under the carbon policy. The impact of building energy codes shows regional and sectoral variation due to regionally differentiated responses of heating and cooling services to shell efficiency improvement. - Highlights: • We assessed long-term impacts of building codes and climate policy using GCAM. • Building energy codes would reduce Chinese building energy use by 13–22%. • The impacts of codes on building energy use vary by climate region and sub-sector

  12. Deterministic quantitative risk assessment development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dawson, Jane; Colquhoun, Iain [PII Pipeline Solutions Business of GE Oil and Gas, Cramlington Northumberland (United Kingdom)

    2009-07-01

    Current risk assessment practice in pipeline integrity management is to use a semi-quantitative index-based or model based methodology. This approach has been found to be very flexible and provide useful results for identifying high risk areas and for prioritizing physical integrity assessments. However, as pipeline operators progressively adopt an operating strategy of continual risk reduction with a view to minimizing total expenditures within safety, environmental, and reliability constraints, the need for quantitative assessments of risk levels is becoming evident. Whereas reliability based quantitative risk assessments can be and are routinely carried out on a site-specific basis, they require significant amounts of quantitative data for the results to be meaningful. This need for detailed and reliable data tends to make these methods unwieldy for system-wide risk k assessment applications. This paper describes methods for estimating risk quantitatively through the calibration of semi-quantitative estimates to failure rates for peer pipeline systems. The methods involve the analysis of the failure rate distribution, and techniques for mapping the rate to the distribution of likelihoods available from currently available semi-quantitative programs. By applying point value probabilities to the failure rates, deterministic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) provides greater rigor and objectivity than can usually be achieved through the implementation of semi-quantitative risk assessment results. The method permits a fully quantitative approach or a mixture of QRA and semi-QRA to suit the operator's data availability and quality, and analysis needs. For example, consequence analysis can be quantitative or can address qualitative ranges for consequence categories. Likewise, failure likelihoods can be output as classical probabilities or as expected failure frequencies as required. (author)

  13. Evaluation of thermal risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loos, J.J.; Perry, E.S.

    1993-01-01

    Risk assessment was done in 1983 to estimate the ecological hazard of increasing the generating load and thermal output of an electric generating station. Subsequently, long-term monitoring in the vicinity of the station allowed verification of the predictions made in the risk assessment. This presentation will review the efficacy of early risk assessment methods in producing useful predictions from a resource management point of view. In 1984, the Chalk Point Generating facility of the Potomac Electric Power Company increased it's median generating load by 100%. Prior to this operational change, the Academy of Natural Sciences of Philadelphia synthesized site specific data, model predictions, and results from literature to assess the risk of additional waste heat to the Patuxent River subestuary of Chesapeake Bay. Risk was expressed as the number of days per year that various species of fish and the blue crab would be expected to avoid the discharge vicinity. Accuracy of these predictions is assessed by comparing observed fish and crab distributions and their observed frequencies of avoidance to those predicted. It is concluded that the predictions of this early risk assessment were sufficiently accurate to produce a reliable resource management decision

  14. On risk assessment of energy production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kunii, Katsuhiko

    2005-07-01

    Today we cannot ignore the risk of health and/or environment by energy production such as power generation since the risk has been made large enough. In this report an information survey has been done in order to know the outline and points of risk assessment. Based on the information of reports and literature about risk assessment, have been surveyed mainly the external cost assessment of power generation (in which quantification of health and/or environment risk has been done), in addition, risks of disasters, accidents, investments, finance etc. and impacts of those risks on social activities. The remarks obtained by the survey are as follows: 1) Some of external cost assessment of power generation show different results even if the assessment conditions of technology, site, etc. are mostly the same. It is necessary to remark on the information such as basic data, model, background, application limit of assessment considering the reliability. 2) Especially it is considered that the reliability of risk assessment is not enough at present because of the lack of basic data. (author)

  15. Defense Programs Transportation Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clauss, D.B.

    1994-01-01

    This paper provides an overview of the methodology used in a probabilistic transportation risk assessment conducted to assess the probabilities and consequences of inadvertent dispersal of radioactive materials arising from severe transportation accidents. The model was developed for the Defense Program Transportation Risk Assessment (DPTRA) study. The analysis incorporates several enhancements relative to previous risk assessments of hazardous materials transportation including newly-developed statistics on the frequencies and severities of tractor semitrailer accidents and detailed route characterization using the 1990 Census data

  16. Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.

  17. Status report on the EPRI fuel cycle accident risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Erdmann, R.C.; Fullwood, R.R.; Garcia, A.A.; Mendoza, Z.T.; Ritzman, R.L.; Stevens, C.A.

    1979-07-01

    This report summarizes and extends the work reported in five unpublished draft reports: the accidental radiological risk of reprocessing spent fuel, mixed oxide fuel fabrication, the transportation of materials within the fuel cycle, and the disposal of nuclear wastes, and the routine atmospheric radiological risk of mining and milling uranium-bearing ore. Results show that the total risk contribution of the fuel cycle is only about 1% of the accident risk of the power plant and hence, with little error, the accident risk of nuclear electric power is that of the power plant itself. The power plant risk, assuming a very large usage of nuclear power by the year 2005, is only about 0.5% of the radiological risk of natural background. This work aims at a realistic assessment of the process hazards, the effectiveness of confinement and mitigation systems and procedures, and the associated likelihoods and estimated errors. The primary probabilistic estimation tool is fault tree analysis with the release source terms calculated using physical--chemical processes. Doses and health effects are calculated with the CRAC code. No evacuation or mitigation is considered: source terms may be conservative through the assumption of high fuel burnup (40,000 MWd/T) and short cooling (90 to 150 d); HEPA filter efficiencies are derived from experiments

  18. Risk assessments ensure safer power

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1982-02-19

    A growth industry is emerging devoted to the study and comparison of the economic, social and health risks posed by large industrial installations. Electricity generation is one area coming under particularly close scrutiny. Types of risk, ways of assessing risk and the difference between experts' analyses and the public perception of risk are given. An example of improved risk assessment helping to reduce deaths and injuries in coal mining is included.

  19. Risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Liselotte; Rasmussen, Kirsten; Elsass, Peter

    2010-01-01

    International research suggests that using formalized risk assessment methods may improve the predictive validity of professionals' predictions of risk of future violence. This study presents data on forensic psychiatric patients discharged from a forensic unit in Denmark in year 2001-2002 (n=107...... and the individual dynamic items strengthen the use of this scheme in clinical practice. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved) (journal abstract)...

  20. Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... HRS Find a Specialist Share Twitter Facebook SCA Risk Assessment Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) occurs abruptly and without ... people of all ages and health conditions. Start Risk Assessment The Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment Tool ...

  1. Assessment of radiation risk as a part of ecological risk in the Republic of Belarus after the Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saltanova, Irina; Saltanov, Eugene

    2008-01-01

    -effect' can be used for correction of chemical substance limitations in the environment in case of increased radioactive background. It is first shown that mono-factor risk assessment can be used, when negative environmental factors act on the human body at a one time, only. The results (in its part dedicated to radioactive risks) were recommended by the IAEA courses committee (Course Code C7-RER9062-017 'Regional Post Graduate Training Course on Radiation Protection and Safety of Radiation Sources') as an introduction course for IAEA program participants, preliminary to their field experience in the Gomel region. Theoretical and experimental foundation for the necessity of integral ecological risk assessment is suggested. (author)

  2. Integrated climate change risk assessment:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Halsnæs, Kirsten

    2017-01-01

    Risk assessments of flooding in urban areas during extreme precipitation for use in, for example, decision-making regarding climate adaptation, are surrounded by great uncertainties stemming from climate model projections, methods of downscaling and the assumptions of socioeconomic impact models...... to address the complex linkages between the different kinds of data required in assessing climate adaptation. It emphasizes that the availability of spatially explicit data can reduce the overall uncertainty of the risk assessment and assist in identifying key vulnerable assets. The usefulness...... of such a framework is demonstrated by means of a risk assessment of flooding from extreme precipitation for the city of Odense, Denmark. A sensitivity analysis shows how the presence of particularly important assets, such as cultural and historical heritage, may be addressed in assessing such risks. The output...

  3. Radiological Risk Assessments for Occupational Exposure at Fuel Fabrication Facility in AlTuwaitha Site Baghdad – Iraq by using RESRAD Computer Code

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibrahim, Ziadoon H.; Ibrahim, S. A.; Mohammed, M. K.; Shaban, A. H.

    2018-05-01

    The purpose of this study is to evaluate the radiological risks for workers for one year of their activities at Fuel Fabrication Facility (FFF) so as to make the necessary protection to prevent or minimize risks resulted from these activities this site now is under the Iraqi decommissioning program (40). Soil samples surface and subsurface were collected from different positions of this facility and analyzed by gamma rays spectroscopy technique High Purity Germanium detector (HPGe) was used. It was found out admixture of radioactive isotopes (232Th 40K 238U 235U137Cs) according to the laboratory results the highest values were (975758) for 238U (21203) for 235U (218) for 232Th (4046) for 40K and (129) for 137Cs in (Bqkg1) unit. The annual total radiation dose and risks were estimated by using RESRAD (onsite) 70 computer code. The highest total radiation dose was (5617μSv/year) in area that represented by soil sample (S7) and the radiological risks morbidity and mortality (118E02 8661E03) respectively in the same area

  4. Track 6: safety and risk management. Plant operational risk management. Plant Configuration Risk Assessment Methodology Development for Periodic Maintenance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Huichang; Chung, Chang Hyun; Sung, Key Yong

    2001-01-01

    plant risk level. Such a change in the arrangement of the plant equipment and system at a given time period can be represented as the plant configuration. The plant configuration risk assessment methodology that was developed during this study consists of six steps, as follows: 1. Identification of plant configuration: In this step, various events that occurred in the plant should be identified through a review of the plant operation records such as the periodic maintenance and inspection schedules, maintenance or repair request logs, trouble reports, and other documents related to operational activity. 2. Evaluation of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model and computer codes: For the effective evaluation of plant risk during normal operation, an appropriate plant risk model should 273 be used, and the capability of computer codes should be evaluated. There might be numerous events that require the maintenance activity during normal operation. To handle these events during the risk calculation, an optimized plant PRA model and a risk analysis tool of fast calculation capacity are needed. 3. Development of baseline risk model and evaluation of baseline risk: The baseline risk model is a risk model similar to that used for the level 1 PRA, but the maintenance-related events are excluded. This methodology focuses on the relative risk change caused by the usual plant events. For this purpose, the baseline risk that will be the reference of risk variation should be evaluated as reasonably as possible. 4. Analysis of components and systems: For the detailed risk analysis, it is useful to perform the importance analysis for the target components or systems before calculating the plant risks. In terms of system unavailability analysis and importance analysis, information of specific components and systems should be performed for the detailed risk analysis 5. Evaluation of configuration risks and sensitivity analysis: Using the configuration and the system information from

  5. Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) waste Integrated Performance and Safety Codes (IPSC): gap analysis for high fidelity and performance assessment code development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Joon H.; Siegel, Malcolm Dean; Arguello, Jose Guadalupe Jr.; Webb, Stephen Walter; Dewers, Thomas A.; Mariner, Paul E.; Edwards, Harold Carter; Fuller, Timothy J.; Freeze, Geoffrey A.; Jove-Colon, Carlos F.; Wang, Yifeng

    2011-01-01

    This report describes a gap analysis performed in the process of developing the Waste Integrated Performance and Safety Codes (IPSC) in support of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) Campaign. The goal of the Waste IPSC is to develop an integrated suite of computational modeling and simulation capabilities to quantitatively assess the long-term performance of waste forms in the engineered and geologic environments of a radioactive waste storage or disposal system. The Waste IPSC will provide this simulation capability (1) for a range of disposal concepts, waste form types, engineered repository designs, and geologic settings, (2) for a range of time scales and distances, (3) with appropriate consideration of the inherent uncertainties, and (4) in accordance with rigorous verification, validation, and software quality requirements. The gap analyses documented in this report were are performed during an initial gap analysis to identify candidate codes and tools to support the development and integration of the Waste IPSC, and during follow-on activities that delved into more detailed assessments of the various codes that were acquired, studied, and tested. The current Waste IPSC strategy is to acquire and integrate the necessary Waste IPSC capabilities wherever feasible, and develop only those capabilities that cannot be acquired or suitably integrated, verified, or validated. The gap analysis indicates that significant capabilities may already exist in the existing THC codes although there is no single code able to fully account for all physical and chemical processes involved in a waste disposal system. Large gaps exist in modeling chemical processes and their couplings with other processes. The coupling of chemical processes with flow transport and mechanical deformation remains challenging. The data for extreme environments (e.g., for elevated temperature and high ionic strength media) that are

  6. Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) waste Integrated Performance and Safety Codes (IPSC) : gap analysis for high fidelity and performance assessment code development.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Joon H.; Siegel, Malcolm Dean; Arguello, Jose Guadalupe, Jr.; Webb, Stephen Walter; Dewers, Thomas A.; Mariner, Paul E.; Edwards, Harold Carter; Fuller, Timothy J.; Freeze, Geoffrey A.; Jove-Colon, Carlos F.; Wang, Yifeng

    2011-03-01

    This report describes a gap analysis performed in the process of developing the Waste Integrated Performance and Safety Codes (IPSC) in support of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) Campaign. The goal of the Waste IPSC is to develop an integrated suite of computational modeling and simulation capabilities to quantitatively assess the long-term performance of waste forms in the engineered and geologic environments of a radioactive waste storage or disposal system. The Waste IPSC will provide this simulation capability (1) for a range of disposal concepts, waste form types, engineered repository designs, and geologic settings, (2) for a range of time scales and distances, (3) with appropriate consideration of the inherent uncertainties, and (4) in accordance with rigorous verification, validation, and software quality requirements. The gap analyses documented in this report were are performed during an initial gap analysis to identify candidate codes and tools to support the development and integration of the Waste IPSC, and during follow-on activities that delved into more detailed assessments of the various codes that were acquired, studied, and tested. The current Waste IPSC strategy is to acquire and integrate the necessary Waste IPSC capabilities wherever feasible, and develop only those capabilities that cannot be acquired or suitably integrated, verified, or validated. The gap analysis indicates that significant capabilities may already exist in the existing THC codes although there is no single code able to fully account for all physical and chemical processes involved in a waste disposal system. Large gaps exist in modeling chemical processes and their couplings with other processes. The coupling of chemical processes with flow transport and mechanical deformation remains challenging. The data for extreme environments (e.g., for elevated temperature and high ionic strength media) that are

  7. Probabilistic risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shinaishin, M.A.

    1988-06-01

    The objective of this work is to provide the tools necessary for clear identification of: the purpose of a Probabilistic Risk Study, the bounds and depth of the study, the proper modeling techniques to be used, the failure modes contributing to the analysis, the classical and baysian approaches for manipulating data necessary for quantification, ways for treating uncertainties, and available computer codes that may be used in performing such probabilistic analysis. In addition, it provides the means for measuring the importance of a safety feature to maintaining a level of risk at a Nuclear Power Plant and the worth of optimizing a safety system in risk reduction. In applying these techniques so that they accommodate our national resources and needs it was felt that emphasis should be put on the system reliability analysis level of PRA. Objectives of such studies could include: comparing systems' designs of the various vendors in the bedding stage, and performing grid reliability and human performance analysis using national specific data. (author)

  8. Probabilistic risk assessment methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shinaishin, M A

    1988-06-15

    The objective of this work is to provide the tools necessary for clear identification of: the purpose of a Probabilistic Risk Study, the bounds and depth of the study, the proper modeling techniques to be used, the failure modes contributing to the analysis, the classical and baysian approaches for manipulating data necessary for quantification, ways for treating uncertainties, and available computer codes that may be used in performing such probabilistic analysis. In addition, it provides the means for measuring the importance of a safety feature to maintaining a level of risk at a Nuclear Power Plant and the worth of optimizing a safety system in risk reduction. In applying these techniques so that they accommodate our national resources and needs it was felt that emphasis should be put on the system reliability analysis level of PRA. Objectives of such studies could include: comparing systems' designs of the various vendors in the bedding stage, and performing grid reliability and human performance analysis using national specific data. (author)

  9. Application of probabilistic risk assessment to nuclear fuel reprocessing at the Savannah River Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Durant, W.S.

    1980-01-01

    The Savannah River Laboratory has developed an integrated risk assessment methodology that has been applied to systems in the nuclear fuel reprocessing facilities at the Savannah River Plant. The methodology can be applied to several types of design and operational problems. Basically, the analysis is subdivided into individual modules that can be either utilized separately or integrated into an overall risk analysis. Computer codes and computer data banks are utilized extensively to minimize the manual effort. The flow of information begins with a definition of the system to be analyzed followed by an evaluation of sources of fault information, storage of this information in data banks, design analysis and data treatment, risk calculations, and end product options

  10. Dynamic modeling of physical phenomena for probabilistic risk assessments using artificial neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benjamin, A.S.; Paez, T.L.; Brown, N.N.

    1998-01-01

    In most probabilistic risk assessments, there is a subset of accident scenarios that involves physical challenges to the system, such as high heat rates and/or accelerations. The system's responses to these challenges may be complicated, and their prediction may require the use of long-running computer codes. To deal with the many scenarios demanded by a risk assessment, the authors have been investigating the use of artificial neural networks (ANNs) as a fast-running estimation tool. They have developed a multivariate linear spline algorithm by extending previous ANN methods that use radial basis functions. They have applied the algorithm to problems involving fires, shocks, and vibrations. They have found that within the parameter range for which it is trained, the algorithm can simulate the nonlinear responses of complex systems with high accuracy. Running times per case are less than one second

  11. Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Health Professional Resources Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk Assessment of weight and health risk involves using ... risk for developing obesity-associated diseases or conditions. Risk Factors for Health Topics Associated With Obesity Along ...

  12. Probabilistic risk assessment and nuclear waste transportation: A case study of the use of RADTRAN in the 1986 Environmental Assessment for Yucca Mountain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Resnikoff, M.

    1990-12-01

    The analysis of the risks of transporting irradiated nuclear fuel to a federal repository, Appendix A of the DOE Environmental Assessment for Yucca Mountain (DOE84), is based on the RADTRAN model and input parameters. The RADTRAN computer code calculates the radiation exposures and health effects under normal or incident-free transport, and over all credible accident conditions. The RADTRAN model also calculates the economic consequences of transportation accidents, though these costs were not included in the Department's Environmental Assessment for the proposed Yucca Mountain repository

  13. Development of dose assessment code for accidental releases of activation products

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noguchi, H.; Yokoyama, S.

    2000-01-01

    It is expected that activation products will be important radionuclides as well as tritium in the assessment of the public doses necessary for licensing of a future fusion reactor. In order to calculate the public doses due to the activation products released in cases of accidents, a code named ACUTAP (dose assessment code for ACUTe Activation Product releases) has been developed. Major characteristics of the code are as follows: (1) the transfer model reflects specific behavior of the activation products in the environment, (2) the doses are assessed based on ICRP dose models, (3) it is possible to calculate individual doses using annual meteorological data statistically according to the guide of the Nuclear Safety Commission of Japan, and (4) the code can calculate collective doses as well as individual doses. Individual doses are calculated for the following pathways: internal exposure by inhalation of activation products in a plume and those resuspended from the ground, external exposure from a plume (cloudshine), and external exposure from activation products deposited on the ground (groundshine). The inhalation in a plume and cloudshine pathways are included in the model for calculating collective doses. In addition to parent nuclides released from the facilities, progeny nuclides produced during the atmospheric dispersion are considered in calculating inhalation doses, and those during the deposition period in calculating groundshine doses. External doses from the cloudshine are calculated for 18 energy groups instead of individual energy of emitted gamma rays in order to save the computation time. Atmospheric concentrations are calculated using a Gaussian plume model with atmospheric dispersion parameters prescribed in the guide of the Nuclear Safety Commission of Japan. Data sets of parameters necessary for the dose assessment, such as internal dos coefficients, external dose rate conversion factors and half lives, are prepared for about 100 radionuclides

  14. Risk assessment theory, methods, and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Rausand, Marvin

    2011-01-01

    With its balanced coverage of theory and applications along with standards and regulations, Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications serves as a comprehensive introduction to the topic. The book serves as a practical guide to current risk analysis and risk assessment, emphasizing the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants and transportation systems. The author applies a uniform framework to the discussion of each method, setting forth clear objectives and descriptions, while also shedding light on applications, essential resources, and advantages and disadvantages. Following an introduction that provides an overview of risk assessment, the book is organized into two sections that outline key theory, methods, and applications. * Introduction to Risk Assessment defines key concepts and details the steps of a thorough risk assessment along with the necessary quantitative risk measures. Chapters outline...

  15. Comparison of landslide hazard and risk assessment practices in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corominas, J.; Mavrouli, O.

    2012-04-01

    An overview is made of the landslide hazard and risk assessment practices that are officially promoted or applied in Europe by administration offices, geological surveys, and decision makers (recommendations, regulations and codes). The reported countries are: Andorra, Austria, France, Italy (selected river basins), Romania, Spain (Catalonia), Switzerland and United Kingdom. The objective here was to compare the different practices for hazard and risk evaluation with respect to the official policies, the methodologies used (qualitative and quantitative), the provided outputs and their contents, and the terminology and map symbols used. The main observations made are illustrated with examples and the possibility of harmonization of the policies and the application of common practices to bridge the existing gaps is discussed. Some of the conclusions reached include the following: zoning maps are legally binding for public administrators and land owners only in some cases and generally when referring to site-specific or local scales rather than regional or national ones; so far, information is mainly provided on landslide susceptibility and hazard and risk assessment is performed only in a few countries; there is a variation in the use of scales between countries; the classification criteria for landslide types and mechanisms present large diversity even within the same country (in some cases no landslide mechanisms are specified while in others there is an exhaustive list); the techniques to obtain input data for the landslide inventory and susceptibility maps vary from basic to sophisticated, resulting in various levels of data quality and quantity; the procedures followed for hazard and risk assessment include analytical procedures supported by computer simulation, weighted-indicators, expert judgment and field survey-based, or a combination of all; there is an important variation between hazard and risk matrices with respect to the used parameters, the thresholds

  16. The issue of risk dilution in risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilmot, R.; Robinson, P.

    2004-01-01

    This paper explores an issue that was first highlighted more than 20 years ago during an inquiry concerning the Sizeweli B nuclear power station in the UK. In the probabilistic safety assessment for this plant, the proponent had apparently reduced its estimates of risk by admitting to increased uncertainty about the timing of certain events. This situation is counter-intuitive, since an increase in uncertainty about the factors contributing to safety would be expected to lead to less confidence and hence to greater risk. This paradoxical situation was termed 'risk dilution' and it has been a topic of interest to reviewers of safety cases since. The recent international peer review of the Yucca Mountain performance assessments concluded that there was a potential for risk dilution in the assumptions and calculations presented. The next section describes how assumptions about the timing of events and other aspects of an assessment may lead to risk dilution, and this is followed by two examples based on recent performance assessments. The final section discusses how potential problems can be identified in safety cases, and the types of response that a regulator might adopt as a result. (authors)

  17. [Quality management and strategic consequences of assessing documentation and coding under the German Diagnostic Related Groups system].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schnabel, M; Mann, D; Efe, T; Schrappe, M; V Garrel, T; Gotzen, L; Schaeg, M

    2004-10-01

    The introduction of the German Diagnostic Related Groups (D-DRG) system requires redesigning administrative patient management strategies. Wrong coding leads to inaccurate grouping and endangers the reimbursement of treatment costs. This situation emphasizes the roles of documentation and coding as factors of economical success. The aims of this study were to assess the quantity and quality of initial documentation and coding (ICD-10 and OPS-301) and find operative strategies to improve efficiency and strategic means to ensure optimal documentation and coding quality. In a prospective study, documentation and coding quality were evaluated in a standardized way by weekly assessment. Clinical data from 1385 inpatients were processed for initial correctness and quality of documentation and coding. Principal diagnoses were found to be accurate in 82.7% of cases, inexact in 7.1%, and wrong in 10.1%. Effects on financial returns occurred in 16%. Based on these findings, an optimized, interdisciplinary, and multiprofessional workflow on medical documentation, coding, and data control was developed. Workflow incorporating regular assessment of documentation and coding quality is required by the DRG system to ensure efficient accounting of hospital services. Interdisciplinary and multiprofessional cooperation is recognized to be an important factor in establishing an efficient workflow in medical documentation and coding.

  18. Risk Assessment in the Maritime Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Mousavi

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment is a well-developed field which many operators are currently applying to improve their operations and reduce their risk exposure. This paper is intended to provide an overview of the risk assessment for mariners in the Maritime transportation. The risks addressed are primarily those affecting the safety of a vessel, facility or operation. The concept of risk is defined, and the methods available to assess the risks associated with an operation are described. Regulatory requirements that have prompted the development of modern risk assessment practices are described, and future regulatory trends are discussed. There are many different analysis techniques and models that have been developed to aid in conducting risk assessments. A key to any successful risk analysis is choosing the right method (or combination of methods for the situation at hand. This is achieved through critical analysis of the available data concerning marine crises. This paper provides a brief introduction to some of the analysis methods available and suggests risk analysis approaches to support different types of decision making within the maritime transportation to cope with crises. Finally, as awareness of risk assessment increases, the benefits which can be realized through its application will continue to increase. Organizations in both the public and the private sector are becoming more and more familiar with the benefits associated with risk-based approaches to managing safety and consequently reducing crisis in maritime transportation.

  19. The MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy: A Flexible Strategy for Efficient Information Collection and Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bos, Peter M J; Gottardo, Stefania; Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J; van Tongeren, Martie; Semenzin, Elena; Fernandes, Teresa F; Hristozov, Danail; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin; Hunt, Neil; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Landsiedel, Robert; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M; Sánchez Jiménez, Araceli; van Kesteren, Petra C E; Oomen, Agnes G

    2015-11-27

    An engineered nanomaterial (ENM) may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA) a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing) a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs) are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment) is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy.

  20. The MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy: A Flexible Strategy for Efficient Information Collection and Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter M. J. Bos

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available An engineered nanomaterial (ENM may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy.

  1. Business risks, functions, methods of assessment and ways to reduce risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.V. Mihalchuk

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available For successful existence in a market economy entrepreneur have to take bold actions, and this increases the risk. The article describes the concept of entrepreneurship and business risk, positive and negative aspects of functions of risk in business. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the risk properly and be able to manage it to achieve the most effective results in the market. In market conditions the problem of assessing and accounting market becomes independent theoretical and practical significance as an important component of the theory and practice of management. Risk - a key element of business activities. Development of risk situations can lead to both the occurrence of adverse effects (losses, lost profits, and positive results for a company in the form of increased profit. This article describes: the concept of entrepreneurship, risk and business risks, characteristic of positive and negative aspects of risk functions in business, methods of assessment and risk reduction, shows formulae and examples you can use to assess risk in an enterprise. Analyzing already established methods of risk assessment a number of rules were proposed in order to reduce business risk.

  2. Development of a computer code for low-and intermediate-level radioactive waste disposal safety assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, J. W.; Kim, C. L.; Lee, E. Y.; Lee, Y. M.; Kang, C. H.; Zhou, W.; Kozak, M. W.

    2002-01-01

    A safety assessment code, called SAGE (Safety Assessment Groundwater Evaluation), has been developed to describe post-closure radionuclide releases and potential radiological doses for low- and intermediate-level radioactive waste (LILW) disposal in an engineered vault facility in Korea. The conceptual model implemented in the code is focused on the release of radionuclide from a gradually degrading engineered barrier system to an underlying unsaturated zone, thence to a saturated groundwater zone. The radionuclide transport equations are solved by spatially discretizing the disposal system into a series of compartments. Mass transfer between compartments is by diffusion/dispersion and advection. In all compartments, radionuclides are decayed either as a single-member chain or as multi-member chains. The biosphere is represented as a set of steady-state, radionuclide-specific pathway dose conversion factors that are multiplied by the appropriate release rate from the far field for each pathway. The code has the capability to treat input parameters either deterministically or probabilistically. Parameter input is achieved through a user-friendly Graphical User Interface. An application is presented, which is compared against safety assessment results from the other computer codes, to benchmark the reliability of system-level conceptual modeling of the code

  3. Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Hrdová, Edita

    2012-01-01

    This diploma thesis is focused on companies risk evaluation before endorsement of Loan deriving from business relationships. The aim of this thesis is not only to describe individual steps of risk assessment, but also perfom analysis of particular companies based on available data, i.e. Balance sheet, Profit and Loss statement and external rating and after that propose solution for each company. My analysis will be based on theoretical knowledge, further on experience related to my job role a...

  4. HTGR accident and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silady, F.A.; Everline, C.J.; Houghton, W.J.

    1982-01-01

    This paper is a synopsis of the high-temperature gas-cooled reactor probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) performed by General Atomic Company. Principal topics presented include: HTGR safety assessments, peer interfaces, safety research, process gas explosions, quantitative safety goals, licensing applications of PRA, enhanced safety, investment risk assessments, and PRA design integration

  5. Anthropic Risk Assessment on Biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piragnolo, M.; Pirotti, F.; Vettore, A.; Salogni, G.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology for risk assessment of anthropic activities on habitats and species. The method has been developed for Veneto Region, in order to simplify and improve the quality of EIA procedure (VINCA). Habitats and species, animals and plants, are protected by European Directive 92/43/EEC and 2009/147/EC but they are subject at hazard due to pollution produced by human activities. Biodiversity risks may conduct to deterioration and disturbance in ecological niches, with consequence of loss of biodiversity. Ecological risk assessment applied on Natura 2000 network, is needed to best practice of management and monitoring of environment and natural resources. Threats, pressure and activities, stress and indicators may be managed by geodatabase and analysed using GIS technology. The method used is the classic risk assessment in ecological context, and it defines the natural hazard as influence, element of risk as interference and vulnerability. Also it defines a new parameter called pressure. It uses risk matrix for the risk analysis on spatial and temporal scale. The methodology is qualitative and applies the precautionary principle in environmental assessment. The final product is a matrix which excludes the risk and could find application in the development of a territorial information system.

  6. Risk assessment and the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fisk, D.J.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change

  7. Risk assessment and the environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fisk, D J [Department of the Environment (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change.

  8. Nuclear insurance risk assessment using risk-based methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wendland, W.G.

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents American Nuclear Insurers' (ANI's) and Mutual Atomic Energy Liability Underwriters' (MAELU's) process and experience for conducting nuclear insurance risk assessments using a risk-based methodology. The process is primarily qualitative and uses traditional insurance risk assessment methods and an approach developed under the auspices of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) in which ANI/MAELU is an active sponsor. This process assists ANI's technical resources in identifying where to look for insurance risk in an industry in which insurance exposure tends to be dynamic and nonactuarial. The process is an evolving one that also seeks to minimize the impact on insureds while maintaining a mutually agreeable risk tolerance

  9. Source-term model for the SYVAC3-NSURE performance assessment code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowat, J.H.; Rattan, D.S.; Dolinar, G.M.

    1996-11-01

    Radionuclide contaminants in wastes emplaced in disposal facilities will not remain in those facilities indefinitely. Engineered barriers will eventually degrade, allowing radioactivity to escape from the vault. The radionuclide release rate from a low-level radioactive waste (LLRW) disposal facility, the source term, is a key component in the performance assessment of the disposal system. This report describes the source-term model that has been implemented in Ver. 1.03 of the SYVAC3-NSURE (Systems Variability Analysis Code generation 3-Near Surface Repository) code. NSURE is a performance assessment code that evaluates the impact of near-surface disposal of LLRW through the groundwater pathway. The source-term model described here was developed for the Intrusion Resistant Underground Structure (IRUS) disposal facility, which is a vault that is to be located in the unsaturated overburden at AECL's Chalk River Laboratories. The processes included in the vault model are roof and waste package performance, and diffusion, advection and sorption of radionuclides in the vault backfill. The model presented here was developed for the IRUS vault; however, it is applicable to other near-surface disposal facilities. (author). 40 refs., 6 figs

  10. Risk assessment for halogenated solvents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Travis, C.C.

    1988-01-01

    A recent development in the cancer risk area is the advent of biologically based pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic models. These models allow for the incorporation of biological and mechanistic data into the risk assessment process. These advances will not only improve the risk assessment process for halogenated solvents but will stimulate and guide basic research in the biological area

  11. Remediation planning and risk assessment support through data fusion technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1996-01-01

    Coleman Research's Data Fusion Modeling (DFM) services gives one the ability to use large geophysical and hydrological data sets, which include direct and indirect measurements, to obtain a unified mathematical model of the geology and hydrology at one's site. Coleman Research (CRC) has adapted highly stable and efficient statistical inversion techniques, developed over the past 20 years, to provide a 3D site model with quantified uncertainty based on state-of-the-art modeling codes. This site model supports risk assessment and remediation planning with enhanced numerical accuracy for tradeoff studies of alternate remediation strategies. Further, DFM supports real time model updates during remediation and site investigation

  12. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: ETHYLENE OXIDE ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

  13. Risk assessment: An employer's perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, K.C.

    1992-01-01

    There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime

  14. Risk assessment: An employer's perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williams, K C [Exxon International (United States)

    1992-07-01

    There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime.

  15. RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES

    OpenAIRE

    Oksana G. Feoktistova; Igor K. Turkin; Sergey V. Barinov

    2017-01-01

    The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate pre...

  16. An abuse of risk assessment: how regulatory agencies improperly adopted LNT for cancer risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calabrese, Edward J

    2015-04-01

    The Genetics Panel of the National Academy of Sciences' Committee on Biological Effects of Atomic Radiation (BEAR) recommended the adoption of the linear dose-response model in 1956, abandoning the threshold dose-response for genetic risk assessments. This recommendation was quickly generalized to include somatic cells for cancer risk assessment and later was instrumental in the adoption of linearity for carcinogen risk assessment by the Environmental Protection Agency. The Genetics Panel failed to provide any scientific assessment to support this recommendation and refused to do so when later challenged by other leading scientists. Thus, the linearity model used in cancer risk assessment was based on ideology rather than science and originated with the recommendation of the NAS BEAR Committee Genetics Panel. Historical documentation in support of these conclusions is provided in the transcripts of the Panel meetings and in previously unexamined correspondence among Panel members.

  17. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

  18. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-01-01

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

  19. Risk indices in comparative risk assessment studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, P.

    1984-01-01

    More than a decade ago the development of comparative risk assessment studies aroused overwhelming interest. There was no doubt that data on the health and safety aspects of energy systems would greatly benefit, or even end, the debate on nuclear energy. Although such attempts are still strongly supported, the rose-coloured expectations of the early days have faded. The high uncertainties, and the contradictory aspect, of the first results might explain this evolution. The loose connection between the range of computed risk indices and the questions on which the debate was focused is another reason for this decline in interest. Important research work is being carried out aiming at reducing the different kinds of uncertainties. Rather than the uncertainties, the paper considers the meaning of available risk indices and proposes more significant indices with respect to the goals of risk assessment. First, the indices which are of frequent use in comparative studies are listed. The stress is put on a French comparative study from which most examples are drawn. Secondly, the increase in magnitude of the indices and the decrease in the attributability of the risk to a given system is shown to be a consequence of the trend towards more comprehensive analyses. Thirdly, the ambiguity of such indices as the collective occupational risk is underlined, and a possible solution is suggested. Whenever risk assessments are related to pragmatic decision making problems it is possible to find satisfactory risk indices. The development of cost-effectiveness analyses and the proposals for quantitative safety goals clearly demonstrate this point. In the field of comparison of social impacts some proposals are made, but there remain some gaps still to be filled. (author)

  20. Aspects regarding explosion risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Părăian Mihaela

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Explosive risk occurs in all activities involving flammable substances in the form of gases, vapors, mists or dusts which, in mixture with air, can generate an explosive atmosphere. As explosions can cause human losses and huge material damage, the assessment of the explosion risk and the establishment of appropriate measures to reduce it to acceptable levels according to the standards and standards in force is of particular importance for the safety and health of people and goods.There is no yet a recognized method of assessing the explosion risk, but regardless of the applied method, the likelihood of an explosive atmosphere occurrence has to be determined, together with the occurrence of an efficient ignition source and the magnitude of foreseeable consequences. In assessment processes, consequences analysis has a secondary importance since it’s likely that explosions would always involve considerable damage, starting from important material damages and up to human damages that could lead to death.The purpose of the work is to highlight the important principles and elements to be taken into account for a specific risk assessment. An essential element in assessing the risk of explosion in workplaces where explosive atmospheres may occur is technical installations and personal protective equipment (PPE that must be designed, manufactured, installed and maintained so that they cannot generate a source of ignition. Explosion prevention and protection requirements are governed by specific norms and standards, and a main part of the explosion risk assessment is related to the assessment of the compliance of the equipment / installation with these requirements.

  1. Assessment of ASME code examinations on regenerative, letdown and residual heat removal heat exchangers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gosselin, Stephen R.; Cumblidge, Stephen E.; Anderson, Michael T.; Simonen, Fredric A.; Tinsley, G A.; Lydell, B.; Doctor, Steven R.

    2005-01-01

    Inservice inspection requirements for pressure retaining welds in the regenerative, letdown, and residual heat removal heat exchangers are prescribed in Section XI Articles IWB and IWC of the ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code. Accordingly, volumetric and/or surface examinations are performed on heat exchanger shell, head, nozzle-to-head, and nozzle-to-shell welds. Inspection difficulties associated with the implementation of these Code-required examinations have forced operating nuclear power plants to seek relief from the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. The nature of these relief requests are generally concerned with metallurgical, geometry, accessibility, and radiation burden. Over 60% of licensee requests to the NRC identify significant radiation exposure burden as the principle reason for relief from the ASME Code examinations on regenerative heat exchangers. For the residual heat removal heat exchangers, 90% of the relief requests are associated with geometry and accessibility concerns. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory was funded by the NRC Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research to review current practice with regard to volumetric and/or surface examinations of shell welds of letdown heat exchangers regenerative heat exchangers and residual (decay) heat removal heat exchangers Design, operating, common preventative maintenance practices, and potential degradation mechanisms are reviewed. A detailed survey of domestic and international PWR-specific operating experience was performed to identify pressure boundary failures (or lack of failures) in each heat exchanger type and NSSS design. The service data survey was based on the PIPExp- database and covers PWR plants worldwide for the period 1970-2004. Finally a risk assessment of the current ASME Code inspection requirements for residual heat removal, letdown, and regenerative heat exchangers is performed. The results are then reviewed to discuss the examinations relative to plant safety and

  2. Development of SAGE, A computer code for safety assessment analyses for Korean Low-Level Radioactive Waste Disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou, W.; Kozak, Matthew W.; Park, Joowan; Kim, Changlak; Kang, Chulhyung

    2002-01-01

    This paper describes a computer code, called SAGE (Safety Assessment Groundwater Evaluation) to be used for evaluation of the concept for low-level waste disposal in the Republic of Korea (ROK). The conceptual model in the code is focused on releases from a gradually degrading engineered barrier system to an underlying unsaturated zone, thence to a saturated groundwater zone. Doses can be calculated for several biosphere systems including drinking contaminated groundwater, and subsequent contamination of foods, rivers, lakes, or the ocean by that groundwater. The flexibility of the code will permit both generic analyses in support of design and site development activities, and straightforward modification to permit site-specific and design-specific safety assessments of a real facility as progress is made toward implementation of a disposal site. In addition, the code has been written to easily interface with more detailed codes for specific parts of the safety assessment. In this way, the code's capabilities can be significantly expanded as needed. The code has the capability to treat input parameters either deterministic ally or probabilistic ally. Parameter input is achieved through a user-friendly Graphical User Interface.

  3. Development of risk-based computer models for deriving criteria on residual radioactivity and recycling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, S.Y.

    1994-01-01

    Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) is developing multimedia environmental pathway and health risk computer models to assess radiological risks to human health and to derive cleanup guidelines for environmental restoration, decommissioning, and recycling activities. These models are based on the existing RESRAD code, although each has a separate design and serves different objectives. Two such codes are RESRAD-BUILD and RESRAD-PROBABILISTIC. The RESRAD code was originally developed to implement the US Department of Energy's (DOE's) residual radioactive materials guidelines for contaminated soils. RESRAD has been successfully used by DOE and its contractors to assess health risks and develop cleanup criteria for several sites selected for cleanup or restoration programs. RESRAD-BUILD analyzes human health risks from radioactive releases during decommissioning or rehabilitation of contaminated buildings. Risks to workers are assessed for dismantling activities; risks to the public are assessed for occupancy. RESRAD-BUILD is based on a room compartmental model analyzing the effects on room air quality of contaminant emission and resuspension (as well as radon emanation), the external radiation pathway, and other exposure pathways. RESRAD-PROBABILISTIC, currently under development, is intended to perform uncertainty analysis for RESRAD by using the Monte Carlo approach based on the Latin-Hypercube sampling scheme. The codes being developed at ANL are tailored to meet a specific objective of human health risk assessment and require specific parameter definition and data gathering. The combined capabilities of these codes satisfy various risk assessment requirements in environmental restoration and remediation activities

  4. Development of risk-based computer models for deriving criteria on residual radioactivity and recycling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Shih-Yew

    1995-01-01

    Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) is developing multimedia environmental pathway and health risk computer models to assess radiological risks to human health and to derive cleanup guidelines for environmental restoration, decommissioning, and recycling activities. These models are based on the existing RESRAD code, although each has a separate design and serves different objectives. Two such codes are RESRAD-BUILD and RESRAD-PROBABILISTIC. The RESRAD code was originally developed to implement the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) residual radioactive materials guidelines for contaminated soils. RESRAD has been successfully used by DOE and its contractors to assess health risks and develop cleanup criteria for several sites selected for cleanup or restoration programs. RESRAD-BUILD analyzes human health risks from radioactive releases during decommissioning or rehabilitation of contaminated buildings. Risks to workers are assessed for dismantling activities; risks to the public are assessed for occupancy. RESRAD-BUILD is based on a room compartmental model analyzing the effects on room air quality of contaminant emission and resuspension (as well as radon emanation), the external radiation pathway, and other exposure pathways. RESRAD-PROBABILISTIC, currently under development, is intended to perform uncertainty analysis for RESRAD by using the Monte Carlo approach based on the Latin-Hypercube sampling scheme. The codes being developed at ANL are tailored to meet a specific objective of human health risk assessment and require specific parameter definition and data gathering. The combined capabilities of these codes satisfy various risk assessment requirements in environmental restoration and remediation activities. (author)

  5. Optimized periodic verification testing blended risk and performance-based MOV inservice test program an application of ASME code case OMN-1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sellers, C.; Fleming, K.; Bidwell, D.; Forbes, P. [and others

    1996-12-01

    This paper presents an application of ASME Code Case OMN-1 to the GL 89-10 Program at the South Texas Project Electric Generating Station (STPEGS). Code Case OMN-1 provides guidance for a performance-based MOV inservice test program that can be used for periodic verification testing and allows consideration of risk insights. Blended probabilistic and deterministic evaluation techniques were used to establish inservice test strategies including both test methods and test frequency. Described in the paper are the methods and criteria for establishing MOV safety significance based on the STPEGS probabilistic safety assessment, deterministic considerations of MOV performance characteristics and performance margins, the expert panel evaluation process, and the development of inservice test strategies. Test strategies include a mix of dynamic and static testing as well as MOV exercising.

  6. Optimized periodic verification testing blended risk and performance-based MOV inservice test program an application of ASME code case OMN-1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sellers, C.; Fleming, K.; Bidwell, D.; Forbes, P.

    1996-01-01

    This paper presents an application of ASME Code Case OMN-1 to the GL 89-10 Program at the South Texas Project Electric Generating Station (STPEGS). Code Case OMN-1 provides guidance for a performance-based MOV inservice test program that can be used for periodic verification testing and allows consideration of risk insights. Blended probabilistic and deterministic evaluation techniques were used to establish inservice test strategies including both test methods and test frequency. Described in the paper are the methods and criteria for establishing MOV safety significance based on the STPEGS probabilistic safety assessment, deterministic considerations of MOV performance characteristics and performance margins, the expert panel evaluation process, and the development of inservice test strategies. Test strategies include a mix of dynamic and static testing as well as MOV exercising

  7. A new framework to assess risk for a spent fuel dry storage facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ryu, J. H.; Jae, M. S.; Jung, C. W.

    2004-01-01

    A spent fuel dry storage facility is a dry cooling storage facility for storing irradiated nuclear fuel and associated radioactive materials. It has very small possibilities to release radiation materials. It means a safety analysis for a spent fuel dry storage facility is required before construction. In this study, a new framework for assessing risk associated with a spent fuel dry storage facility is represented. A safety assessment framework includes 3 modules such as assessment of basket/cylinder failure rates, that of overall storage system, and site modeling. A reliability physics model for failure rates, event tree analysis(ETA)/fault tree analysis for system analysis, Bayesian analysis for initial events data, and MACCS code for consequence analysis have been used in this study

  8. Assessment of the computer code COBRA/CFTL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baxi, C.B.; Burhop, C.J.

    1981-07-01

    The COBRA/CFTL code has been developed by Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) for thermal-hydraulic analysis of simulated gas-cooled fast breeder reactor (GCFR) core assemblies to be tested in the core flow test loop (CFTL). The COBRA/CFTL code was obtained by modifying the General Atomic code COBRA*GCFR. This report discusses these modifications, compares the two code results for three cases which represent conditions from fully rough turbulent flow to laminar flow. Case 1 represented fully rough turbulent flow in the bundle. Cases 2 and 3 represented laminar and transition flow regimes. The required input for the COBRA/CFTL code, a sample problem input/output and the code listing are included in the Appendices

  9. Chlorine transportation risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lautkaski, Risto; Mankamo, Tuomas.

    1977-02-01

    An assessment has been made on the toxication risk of the population due to the bulk rail transportation of liquid chlorine in Finland. Fourteen typical rail accidents were selected and their probability was estimated using the accident file of the Finnish State Railways. The probability of a chlorine leak was assessed for each type of accident separately using four leak size categories. The assessed leakage probability was dominated by station accidents, especially by collisions of a chlorine tanker and a locomotive. Toxication hazard areas were estimated for the leak categories. A simple model was constructed to describe the centring of the densely populated areas along the railway line. A comparison was made between the obtained risk and some other risks including those due to nuclear reactor accidents. (author)

  10. PARS risk charts: A 10-year study of risk assessment for cardiovascular diseases in Eastern Mediterranean Region.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nizal Sarrafzadegan

    Full Text Available This study was designed to develop a risk assessment chart for the clinical management and prevention of the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD in Iranian population, which is vital for developing national prevention programs. The Isfahan Cohort Study (ICS is a population-based prospective study of 6504 Iranian adults ≥35 years old, followed-up for ten years, from 2001 to 2010. Behavioral and cardiometabolic risk factors were examined every five years, while biennial follow-ups for the occurrence of the events was performed by phone calls or by verbal autopsy. Among these participants, 5432 (2784 women, 51.3% were CVD free at baseline examination and had at least one follow-up. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to predict the risk of ischemic CVD events, including sudden cardiac death due to unstable angina, myocardial infarction, and stroke. The model fit statistics such as area under the receiver-operating characteristic (AUROC, calibration chi-square and the overall bias were used to assess the model performance. We also tested the Framingham model for comparison. Seven hundred and five CVD events occurred during 49452.8 person-years of follow-up. The event probabilities were calculated and presented color-coded on each gender-specific PARS chart. The AUROC and Harrell's C indices were 0.74 (95% CI, 0.72-0.76 and 0.73, respectively. In the calibration, the Nam-D'Agostino χ2 was 10.82 (p = 0.29. The overall bias of the proposed model was 95.60%. PARS model was also internally validated using cross-validation. The Android app and the Web-based risk assessment tool were also developed as to have an impact on public health. In comparison, the refitted and recalibrated Framingham models, estimated the CVD incidence with the overall bias of 149.60% and 128.23% for men, and 222.70% and 176.07% for women, respectively. In conclusion, the PARS risk assessment chart is a simple, accurate, and well-calibrated tool for predicting a 10-year

  11. Probabilistic risk assessment, Volume I

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1982-01-01

    This book contains 158 papers presented at the International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Risk Assessment held by the American Nuclear Society (ANS) and the European Nuclear Society (ENS) in Port Chester, New York in 1981. The meeting was second in a series of three. The main focus of the meeting was on the safety of light water reactors. The papers discuss safety goals and risk assessment. Quantitative safety goals, risk assessment in non-nuclear technologies, and operational experience and data base are also covered. Included is an address by Dr. Chauncey Starr

  12. Risk assessment in maritime transportation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soares, C. Guedes; Teixeira, A.P.

    2001-01-01

    A review is presented of different approaches to quantify the risk in maritime transportation. The discussion of several accident statistics provides a global assessment of the risk levels and its differentiation in ship types and main types of ship losses. Early studies in the probability of ship loss by foundering and capsizing are reviewed. The approaches used to assess the risk of structural design are addressed. Finally a brief account is given of recent development of using formal safety assessments to support decision making on legislation applicable internationally to maritime transportation

  13. Framework for ecological risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodier, D.; Norton, S.

    1992-02-01

    Increased interest in ecological issues such as global climate change, habitat loss, acid deposition, reduced biological diversity, and the ecological impacts of pesticides and toxic chemicals prompts this U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) report, A Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment ('Framework Report'). The report describes basic elements, or a framework, for evaluating scientific information on the adverse effects of physical and chemical stressors on the environment. The framework offers starting principles and a simple structure as guidance for current ecological risk assessments and as a foundation for future EPA proposals for risk assessment guidelines

  14. Results from the Metis code participation to the Hydrocoin exercise

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raimbault, P.

    1987-04-01

    The METIS code, developed at the ENSMP is a 2D finite element radionuclide transport and groundwater flow model based on the hypothesis of an equivalent porous medium with an explicit description of the main fractures. It is integrated in the global risk assessment code MELODIE for nuclear waste repositories in geological formations. The participation of the METIS code to the HYDROCOIN exercise is of prime importance for its development and its incorporation in the performance assessment procedure in France. Results from HYDROCOIN cases show that the code can handle correctly fractured media, high permeability contrast formations and buoyancy effects. A 3D version of the code has been developed for carrying comparisons of field experiments and groundwater flow models in HYDROCOIN level 2. In order to carry out the exercise, several pre and post-processing programs were developed and integrated in a conversational module. They include: contour plots, velocity field representations, interpolations, particule tracking routines and uncertainty and sensitivity analysis modules

  15. Assessment of Transportation Risk of Radioactive Materials in Uganda

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Richard, Menya; Kim, Jonghyun

    2014-01-01

    Radioactive materials refer to any materials that spontaneously emit ionizing radiation and of which the radioactivity per gram is greater than 0.002 micro-curie. They include: spent nuclear fuel, nuclear wastes, medical sources i.e. Co-60, industrial sources i.e. Cs-137, Am-241:Be, Ra-226, and sources for research. In view of the rising reported cancer cases in Uganda, which might be as a result of radiation exposure due to constant transportation of radioactive materials i.e. industrial sources, a risk analysis was thought of and undertaken for the country's safety evaluation and improvement. It was therefore important to undertake a risk assessment of the actual and potential radiation exposure during the transportation process. This paper explains a study undertaken for transport risk assessment of the impact on the environment and the people living in it, from exposure to radioactivity during transportation of the industrial sources in Uganda. It provides estimates of radiological risks associated with visualized transport scenarios for the highway transport mode. This is done by calculating the human health impact and radiological risk from transportation of the sources along Busia transport route to Hoima. Busia is the entry port for the sources whilst Hoima, where various industrial practices that utilize sources like oil explorations are centered. During the study, a computer code RADTRAN-6 was used. The overall collective dose for population and package transport crew are 3.72E-4 and 1.69E-4 person-sievert respectively. These are less than the exemption value recommended by the IAEA and Uganda Regulatory Authority for public implying that no health effects like cancer are to be expected. Hence the rising cancer cases in the country are not as a result of increased transportation of radioactive materials in the Industrial sector

  16. Assessment of Transportation Risk of Radioactive Materials in Uganda

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Richard, Menya; Kim, Jonghyun [KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-10-15

    Radioactive materials refer to any materials that spontaneously emit ionizing radiation and of which the radioactivity per gram is greater than 0.002 micro-curie. They include: spent nuclear fuel, nuclear wastes, medical sources i.e. Co-60, industrial sources i.e. Cs-137, Am-241:Be, Ra-226, and sources for research. In view of the rising reported cancer cases in Uganda, which might be as a result of radiation exposure due to constant transportation of radioactive materials i.e. industrial sources, a risk analysis was thought of and undertaken for the country's safety evaluation and improvement. It was therefore important to undertake a risk assessment of the actual and potential radiation exposure during the transportation process. This paper explains a study undertaken for transport risk assessment of the impact on the environment and the people living in it, from exposure to radioactivity during transportation of the industrial sources in Uganda. It provides estimates of radiological risks associated with visualized transport scenarios for the highway transport mode. This is done by calculating the human health impact and radiological risk from transportation of the sources along Busia transport route to Hoima. Busia is the entry port for the sources whilst Hoima, where various industrial practices that utilize sources like oil explorations are centered. During the study, a computer code RADTRAN-6 was used. The overall collective dose for population and package transport crew are 3.72E-4 and 1.69E-4 person-sievert respectively. These are less than the exemption value recommended by the IAEA and Uganda Regulatory Authority for public implying that no health effects like cancer are to be expected. Hence the rising cancer cases in the country are not as a result of increased transportation of radioactive materials in the Industrial sector.

  17. Radioactive action code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1988-01-01

    A new coding system, 'Hazrad', for buildings and transportation containers for alerting emergency services personnel to the presence of radioactive materials has been developed in the United Kingdom. The hazards of materials in the buildings or transport container, together with the recommended emergency action, are represented by a number of codes which are marked on the building or container and interpreted from a chart carried as a pocket-size guide. Buildings would be marked with the familiar yellow 'radioactive' trefoil, the written information 'Radioactive materials' and a list of isotopes. Under this the 'Hazrad' code would be written - three symbols to denote the relative radioactive risk (low, medium or high), the biological risk (also low, medium or high) and the third showing the type of radiation emitted, alpha, beta or gamma. The response cards indicate appropriate measures to take, eg for a high biological risk, Bio3, the wearing of a gas-tight protection suit is advised. The code and its uses are explained. (U.K.)

  18. Risk assessment instruments in clinical practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Côté, Gilles; Crocker, Anne G; Nicholls, Tonia L; Seto, Michael C

    2012-04-01

    To determine whether the items in one of the most widely validated instruments of violence risk assessment, the Historical-Clinical-Risk Management-20 (HCR-20), are used in review board hearings to assess the risk of violence by people found Not Criminally Responsible on account of Mental Disorder (NCRMD). This study was conducted from October 2004 to August 2006 in Quebec's sole forensic psychiatric hospital and 2 large civil psychiatric hospitals designated for the care of people declared NCRMD in the Montreal metropolitan area. The risk assessments presented by clinicians at annual review board hearings and the boards' rationale for the release or detention of people found NCRMD were contrasted with the risk assessments conducted by the research team using the HCR-20. The final sample was comprised of 96 men. Very few of the risk factors identified by prior research (HCR-20 items) were mentioned in the hearing process, whether in clinical reports, discussions during the hearing, or in the disposition justification. The findings confirm that there remains a significant gap between research evidence and risk assessment practice.

  19. Risk assessment and early warning systems for industrial facilities in seismic zones

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salzano, Ernesto; Garcia Agreda, Anita; Di Carluccio, Antonio; Fabbrocino, Giovanni

    2009-01-01

    Industrial equipments and systems can suffer structural damage when hit by earthquakes, so that accidental scenarios as fire, explosion and dispersion of toxic substances can take place. As a result, overall damage to people, environment and properties increases. The present paper deals with seismic risk analysis of industrial facilities where atmospheric storage tanks (anchored or unanchored to ground), horizontal pressurised tanks, reactors and pumps are installed. Simplified procedures and methodologies based on historical database and literature data on natural-technological (Na-Tech) accidents for seismic risk assessment are discussed. Equipment-specific fragility curves have been thus derived depending on a single earthquake measure, peak ground acceleration (PGA). Fragility parameters have been then transformed to linear probit coefficients in order to obtain reliable threshold values for earthquake intensity measure, both for structural damage and loss of containment. These threshold values are of great interest when development of active and passive mitigation actions and systems, safety management, and the implementation of early warning system are concerned. The approach is general and can be implemented in any available code or procedure for risk assessment. Some results of seismic analysis of atmospheric storage tanks are also presented for validation.

  20. Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Knaap, L.M.; Leenarts, L.E.W.; Born, M.P.; Oosterveld, P.

    2012-01-01

    Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the

  1. Quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinstock, Robert M (Inventor); Smidts, Carol S (Inventor); Mosleh, Ali (Inventor); Chang, Yung-Hsien (Inventor); Swaminathan, Sankaran (Inventor); Groen, Francisco J (Inventor); Tan, Zhibin (Inventor)

    2001-01-01

    A quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS) builds a risk model of a system for which risk of failure is being assessed, then analyzes the risk of the system corresponding to the risk model. The QRAS performs sensitivity analysis of the risk model by altering fundamental components and quantifications built into the risk model, then re-analyzes the risk of the system using the modifications. More particularly, the risk model is built by building a hierarchy, creating a mission timeline, quantifying failure modes, and building/editing event sequence diagrams. Multiplicities, dependencies, and redundancies of the system are included in the risk model. For analysis runs, a fixed baseline is first constructed and stored. This baseline contains the lowest level scenarios, preserved in event tree structure. The analysis runs, at any level of the hierarchy and below, access this baseline for risk quantitative computation as well as ranking of particular risks. A standalone Tool Box capability exists, allowing the user to store application programs within QRAS.

  2. Beyond crosswalks: reliability of exposure assessment following automated coding of free-text job descriptions for occupational epidemiology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burstyn, Igor; Slutsky, Anton; Lee, Derrick G; Singer, Alison B; An, Yuan; Michael, Yvonne L

    2014-05-01

    Epidemiologists typically collect narrative descriptions of occupational histories because these are less prone than self-reported exposures to recall bias of exposure to a specific hazard. However, the task of coding these narratives can be daunting and prohibitively time-consuming in some settings. The aim of this manuscript is to evaluate the performance of a computer algorithm to translate the narrative description of occupational codes into standard classification of jobs (2010 Standard Occupational Classification) in an epidemiological context. The fundamental question we address is whether exposure assignment resulting from manual (presumed gold standard) coding of the narratives is materially different from that arising from the application of automated coding. We pursued our work through three motivating examples: assessment of physical demands in Women's Health Initiative observational study, evaluation of predictors of exposure to coal tar pitch volatiles in the US Occupational Safety and Health Administration's (OSHA) Integrated Management Information System, and assessment of exposure to agents known to cause occupational asthma in a pregnancy cohort. In these diverse settings, we demonstrate that automated coding of occupations results in assignment of exposures that are in reasonable agreement with results that can be obtained through manual coding. The correlation between physical demand scores based on manual and automated job classification schemes was reasonable (r = 0.5). The agreement between predictive probability of exceeding the OSHA's permissible exposure level for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, using coal tar pitch volatiles as a surrogate, based on manual and automated coding of jobs was modest (Kendall rank correlation = 0.29). In the case of binary assignment of exposure to asthmagens, we observed that fair to excellent agreement in classifications can be reached, depending on presence of ambiguity in assigned job classification (κ

  3. Ecosystem services as assessment endpoints for ecological risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munns, Wayne R; Rea, Anne W; Suter, Glenn W; Martin, Lawrence; Blake-Hedges, Lynne; Crk, Tanja; Davis, Christine; Ferreira, Gina; Jordan, Steve; Mahoney, Michele; Barron, Mace G

    2016-07-01

    Ecosystem services are defined as the outputs of ecological processes that contribute to human welfare or have the potential to do so in the future. Those outputs include food and drinking water, clean air and water, and pollinated crops. The need to protect the services provided by natural systems has been recognized previously, but ecosystem services have not been formally incorporated into ecological risk assessment practice in a general way in the United States. Endpoints used conventionally in ecological risk assessment, derived directly from the state of the ecosystem (e.g., biophysical structure and processes), and endpoints based on ecosystem services serve different purposes. Conventional endpoints are ecologically important and susceptible entities and attributes that are protected under US laws and regulations. Ecosystem service endpoints are a conceptual and analytical step beyond conventional endpoints and are intended to complement conventional endpoints by linking and extending endpoints to goods and services with more obvious benefit to humans. Conventional endpoints can be related to ecosystem services even when the latter are not considered explicitly during problem formulation. To advance the use of ecosystem service endpoints in ecological risk assessment, the US Environmental Protection Agency's Risk Assessment Forum has added generic endpoints based on ecosystem services (ES-GEAE) to the original 2003 set of generic ecological assessment endpoints (GEAEs). Like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are defined by an entity and an attribute. Also like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are broadly described and will need to be made specific when applied to individual assessments. Adoption of ecosystem services as a type of assessment endpoint is intended to improve the value of risk assessment to environmental decision making, linking ecological risk to human well-being, and providing an improved means of communicating those risks. Integr Environ Assess Manag

  4. Do expert assessments converge? An exploratory case study of evaluating and managing a blood supply risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eyles, John; Heddle, Nancy; Webert, Kathryn; Arnold, Emmy; McCurdy, Bronwen

    2011-08-24

    Examining professional assessments of a blood product recall/withdrawal and its implications for risk and public health, the paper introduces ideas about perceptions of minimal risk and its management. It also describes the context of publicly funded blood transfusion in Canada and the withdrawal event that is the basis of this study. Interviews with 45 experts from administration, medicine, blood supply, laboratory services and risk assessment took place using a multi-level sampling framework in the aftermath of the recall. These experts either directly dealt with the withdrawal or were involved in the management of the blood supply at the national level. Data from these interviews were coded in NVivo for analysis and interpretation. Analytically, data were interpreted to derive typifications to relate interview responses to risk management heuristics. While all those interviewed agreed on the importance of patient safety, differences in the ways in which the risk was contextualized and explicated were discerned. Risk was seen in terms of patient safety, liability or precaution. These different risk logics are illustrated by selected quotations. Expert assessments did not fully converge and it is possible that these different risk logics and discourses may affect the risk management process more generally, although not necessarily in a negative way. Patient safety is not to be compromised but management of blood risk in publicly funded systems may vary. We suggest ways of managing blood risk using formal and safety case approaches.

  5. Do expert assessments converge? An exploratory case study of evaluating and managing a blood supply risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arnold Emmy

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Examining professional assessments of a blood product recall/withdrawal and its implications for risk and public health, the paper introduces ideas about perceptions of minimal risk and its management. It also describes the context of publicly funded blood transfusion in Canada and the withdrawal event that is the basis of this study. Methods Interviews with 45 experts from administration, medicine, blood supply, laboratory services and risk assessment took place using a multi-level sampling framework in the aftermath of the recall. These experts either directly dealt with the withdrawal or were involved in the management of the blood supply at the national level. Data from these interviews were coded in NVivo for analysis and interpretation. Analytically, data were interpreted to derive typifications to relate interview responses to risk management heuristics. Results While all those interviewed agreed on the importance of patient safety, differences in the ways in which the risk was contextualized and explicated were discerned. Risk was seen in terms of patient safety, liability or precaution. These different risk logics are illustrated by selected quotations. Conclusions Expert assessments did not fully converge and it is possible that these different risk logics and discourses may affect the risk management process more generally, although not necessarily in a negative way. Patient safety is not to be compromised but management of blood risk in publicly funded systems may vary. We suggest ways of managing blood risk using formal and safety case approaches.

  6. Fast dose assessment models, parameters and code under accident conditions for Qinshan Nuclear Power Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Z.Y.; Hu, E.B.; Meng, X.C.; Zhang, Y.; Yao, R.T.

    1993-01-01

    According to requirement of accident emergency plan for Qinshan Nuclear Power Plant, a Gaussian straight-line model was adopted for estimating radionuclide concentration in surface air. In addition, the effects of mountain body on atmospheric dispersion was considered. By combination of field atmospheric dispersion experiment and wind tunnel modeling test, necessary modifications have been done for some models and parameters. A computer code for assessment was written in Quick BASIC (V4.5) language. The radius of assessment region is 10 km and the code is applicable to early accident assessment. (1 tab.)

  7. Using toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic modeling as an acute risk assessment refinement approach in vertebrate ecological risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ducrot, Virginie; Ashauer, Roman; Bednarska, Agnieszka J; Hinarejos, Silvia; Thorbek, Pernille; Weyman, Gabriel

    2016-01-01

    Recent guidance identified toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic (TK-TD) modeling as a relevant approach for risk assessment refinement. Yet, its added value compared to other refinement options is not detailed, and how to conduct the modeling appropriately is not explained. This case study addresses these issues through 2 examples of individual-level risk assessment for 2 hypothetical plant protection products: 1) evaluating the risk for small granivorous birds and small omnivorous mammals of a single application, as a seed treatment in winter cereals, and 2) evaluating the risk for fish after a pulsed treatment in the edge-of-field zone. Using acute test data, we conducted the first tier risk assessment as defined in the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) guidance. When first tier risk assessment highlighted a concern, refinement options were discussed. Cases where the use of models should be preferred over other existing refinement approaches were highlighted. We then practically conducted the risk assessment refinement by using 2 different models as examples. In example 1, a TK model accounting for toxicokinetics and relevant feeding patterns in the skylark and in the wood mouse was used to predict internal doses of the hypothetical active ingredient in individuals, based on relevant feeding patterns in an in-crop situation, and identify the residue levels leading to mortality. In example 2, a TK-TD model accounting for toxicokinetics, toxicodynamics, and relevant exposure patterns in the fathead minnow was used to predict the time-course of fish survival for relevant FOCUS SW exposure scenarios and identify which scenarios might lead to mortality. Models were calibrated using available standard data and implemented to simulate the time-course of internal dose of active ingredient or survival for different exposure scenarios. Simulation results were discussed and used to derive the risk assessment refinement endpoints used for decision. Finally, we compared the

  8. PoCos: Population Covering Locus Sets for Risk Assessment in Complex Diseases.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marzieh Ayati

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Susceptibility loci identified by GWAS generally account for a limited fraction of heritability. Predictive models based on identified loci also have modest success in risk assessment and therefore are of limited practical use. Many methods have been developed to overcome these limitations by incorporating prior biological knowledge. However, most of the information utilized by these methods is at the level of genes, limiting analyses to variants that are in or proximate to coding regions. We propose a new method that integrates protein protein interaction (PPI as well as expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL data to identify sets of functionally related loci that are collectively associated with a trait of interest. We call such sets of loci "population covering locus sets" (PoCos. The contributions of the proposed approach are three-fold: 1 We consider all possible genotype models for each locus, thereby enabling identification of combinatorial relationships between multiple loci. 2 We develop a framework for the integration of PPI and eQTL into a heterogenous network model, enabling efficient identification of functionally related variants that are associated with the disease. 3 We develop a novel method to integrate the genotypes of multiple loci in a PoCo into a representative genotype to be used in risk assessment. We test the proposed framework in the context of risk assessment for seven complex diseases, type 1 diabetes (T1D, type 2 diabetes (T2D, psoriasis (PS, bipolar disorder (BD, coronary artery disease (CAD, hypertension (HT, and multiple sclerosis (MS. Our results show that the proposed method significantly outperforms individual variant based risk assessment models as well as the state-of-the-art polygenic score. We also show that incorporation of eQTL data improves the performance of identified POCOs in risk assessment. We also assess the biological relevance of PoCos for three diseases that have similar biological mechanisms

  9. Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-03-01

    This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and environmental evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act remedial investigations (RIs) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act facility investigations (FIs) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies Site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and environmental risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site

  10. The RADTRAN 4 computational system for transportation risk assessment: A prototype for the information superhighway

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neuhauser, K.S.

    1994-01-01

    The RADTRAN 4 computer code for transportation risk assessment is the central code in a system that contains both other codes and data libraries. Some of these codes and data libraries supply input data for RADTRAN; others perform supplemental calculations. RADTRAN 4 will be released by the IAEA in an international version known as INTERTRAN 2 in 1995. In the United States, RADTRAN 4 and its supporting system may be accessed via the INTERNET, a precursor to the Information Superhighway. Similar networks are being contemplated elsewhere in the world, and the RADTRAN System may serve as a prototype for systems on these networks. A system is desirable for the following reasons. Some classes of data and data-handling methods are country-specific and some are not -- ancillary codes and data libraries that provide the latter are not affected by national and regional borders while the former must be provided on a country-by-country basis. Making the invariant portions available to all users in an international system would simplify quality assurance (QA) and, therefore, the reliability and consistency of risk results. Among the classes of data used in RADTRAN 4 (and INTERTRAN 2) and the supplemental calculational capabilities that are essentially invariant for all countries and regions are: (1) radionuclide characteristics such as half-life, photon energy, and dose-conversion factors; (2) characteristics of radioactive-material packages found in international commerce; (3) features of highly standardized international transportation modes (primarily sea and air); and (4) uncertainty analysis. These features and their related QA benefits are discussed

  11. PRA-Code Upgrade to Handle a Generic Problem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilson, J. R.

    1999-01-01

    During the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) for the proposed Yucca Mountain nuclear waste repository, a problem came up that could not be handled by most PRA computer codes. This problem deals with dependencies between sequential events in time. Two similar scenarios that illustrate this problem are LOOP nonrecovery and sequential wearout failures with units of time. The purpose of this paper is twofold: To explain the problem generically, and to show how the PRA code at the INEEL, SAPHIRE, has been modified to solve this problem correctly

  12. RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oksana G. Feoktistova

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate precautionary measures will allow airlines to avoid incidents leading to drastic consequences for staff, as well as to direct and indirect costs for the enterprise among which there could be singled out both direct property damage and loss of profit and expenses connected to incident investigation, penalty and compensation payment, loss of business reputation and so on. To reduce the rate of accidents and to develop safe activities skills for airlines staff a risk assessment chart is supposed to be implemented, which will be an efficient accidents prevention involving the staff in the process and making them follow safe working conditions.Process risk assessment is an integral part of assessment of the whole enterprise activity and work efficiency of a department and particular workers evaluation system. Labour protection activity should be based on risk identification and its control. Risk assessment is a keystone of labour protection activity planning.

  13. Uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blöschl, Günter; Hall, Julia; Kiss, Andrea; Parajka, Juraj; Perdigão, Rui A. P.; Rogger, Magdalena; Salinas, José Luis; Viglione, Alberto

    2017-04-01

    Uncertainty is inherent to flood risk assessments because of the complexity of the human-water system, which is characterised by nonlinearities and interdependencies, because of limited knowledge about system properties and because of cognitive biases in human perception and decision-making. On top of the uncertainty associated with the assessment of the existing risk to extreme events, additional uncertainty arises because of temporal changes in the system due to climate change, modifications of the environment, population growth and the associated increase in assets. Novel risk assessment concepts are needed that take into account all these sources of uncertainty. They should be based on the understanding of how flood extremes are generated and how they change over time. They should also account for the dynamics of risk perception of decision makers and population in the floodplains. In this talk we discuss these novel risk assessment concepts through examples from Flood Frequency Hydrology, Socio-Hydrology and Predictions Under Change. We believe that uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment should lead to a robust approach of integrated flood risk management aiming at enhancing resilience rather than searching for optimal defense strategies.

  14. MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System (MACCS)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chanin, D.I.; Sprung, J.L.; Ritchie, L.T.; Jow, Hong-Nian

    1990-02-01

    This report describes the MACCS computer code. The purpose of this code is to simulate the impact of severe accidents at nuclear power plants on the surrounding environment. MACCS has been developed for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission to replace the previous CRAC2 code, and it incorporates many improvements in modeling flexibility in comparison to CRAC2. The principal phenomena considered in MACCS are atmospheric transport, mitigative actions based on dose projection, dose accumulation by a number of pathways including food and water ingestion, early and latent health effects, and economic costs. The MACCS code can be used for a variety of applications. These include (1) probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of nuclear power plants and other nuclear facilities, (2) sensitivity studies to gain a better understanding of the parameters important to PRA, and (3) cost-benefit analysis. This report is composed of three volumes. This document, Volume 1, the Users's Guide, describes the input data requirements of the MACCS code and provides directions for its use as illustrated by three sample problems

  15. MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System (MACCS)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chanin, D.I. (Technadyne Engineering Consultants, Inc., Albuquerque, NM (USA)); Sprung, J.L.; Ritchie, L.T.; Jow, Hong-Nian (Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (USA))

    1990-02-01

    This report describes the MACCS computer code. The purpose of this code is to simulate the impact of severe accidents at nuclear power plants on the surrounding environment. MACCS has been developed for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission to replace the previous CRAC2 code, and it incorporates many improvements in modeling flexibility in comparison to CRAC2. The principal phenomena considered in MACCS are atmospheric transport, mitigative actions based on dose projection, dose accumulation by a number of pathways including food and water ingestion, early and latent health effects, and economic costs. The MACCS code can be used for a variety of applications. These include (1) probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of nuclear power plants and other nuclear facilities, (2) sensitivity studies to gain a better understanding of the parameters important to PRA, and (3) cost-benefit analysis. This report is composed of three volumes. This document, Volume 1, the Users's Guide, describes the input data requirements of the MACCS code and provides directions for its use as illustrated by three sample problems.

  16. Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Knaap, Leontien M.; Leenarts, Laura E. W.; Born, Marise Ph.; Oosterveld, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the generalizability of their results. The present study…

  17. Development of innovative methods for risk assessment in high-rise construction based on clustering of risk factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okolelova, Ella; Shibaeva, Marina; Shalnev, Oleg

    2018-03-01

    The article analyses risks in high-rise construction in terms of investment value with account of the maximum probable loss in case of risk event. The authors scrutinized the risks of high-rise construction in regions with various geographic, climatic and socio-economic conditions that may influence the project environment. Risk classification is presented in general terms, that includes aggregated characteristics of risks being common for many regions. Cluster analysis tools, that allow considering generalized groups of risk depending on their qualitative and quantitative features, were used in order to model the influence of the risk factors on the implementation of investment project. For convenience of further calculations, each type of risk is assigned a separate code with the number of the cluster and the subtype of risk. This approach and the coding of risk factors makes it possible to build a risk matrix, which greatly facilitates the task of determining the degree of impact of risks. The authors clarified and expanded the concept of the price risk, which is defined as the expected value of the event, 105 which extends the capabilities of the model, allows estimating an interval of the probability of occurrence and also using other probabilistic methods of calculation.

  18. Enhancing the ecological risk assessment process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dale, Virginia H; Biddinger, Gregory R; Newman, Michael C; Oris, James T; Suter, Glenn W; Thompson, Timothy; Armitage, Thomas M; Meyer, Judith L; Allen-King, Richelle M; Burton, G Allen; Chapman, Peter M; Conquest, Loveday L; Fernandez, Ivan J; Landis, Wayne G; Master, Lawrence L; Mitsch, William J; Mueller, Thomas C; Rabeni, Charles F; Rodewald, Amanda D; Sanders, James G; van Heerden, Ivor L

    2008-07-01

    The Ecological Processes and Effects Committee of the US Environmental Protection Agency Science Advisory Board conducted a self-initiated study and convened a public workshop to characterize the state of the ecological risk assessment (ERA), with a view toward advancing the science and application of the process. That survey and analysis of ERA in decision making shows that such assessments have been most effective when clear management goals were included in the problem formulation; translated into information needs; and developed in collaboration with decision makers, assessors, scientists, and stakeholders. This process is best facilitated when risk managers, risk assessors, and stakeholders are engaged in an ongoing dialogue about problem formulation. Identification and acknowledgment of uncertainties that have the potential to profoundly affect the results and outcome of risk assessments also improves assessment effectiveness. Thus we suggest 1) through peer review of ERAs be conducted at the problem formulation stage and 2) the predictive power of risk-based decision making be expanded to reduce uncertainties through analytical and methodological approaches like life cycle analysis. Risk assessment and monitoring programs need better integration to reduce uncertainty and to evaluate risk management decision outcomes. Postdecision audit programs should be initiated to evaluate the environmental outcomes of risk-based decisions. In addition, a process should be developed to demonstrate how monitoring data can be used to reduce uncertainties. Ecological risk assessments should include the effects of chemical and nonchemical stressors at multiple levels of biological organization and spatial scale, and the extent and resolution of the pertinent scales and levels of organization should be explicitly considered during problem formulation. An approach to interpreting lines of evidence and weight of evidence is critically needed for complex assessments, and it would

  19. J simplified assessment for cracked pipes and elbows in the RSE-M code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delliou, P.L.; Sermage, J.-P.; Gilles, P.; Marie, S.; Kayser, Y.; Barthelet, B.

    2005-01-01

    RSE-M Code provides rules and requirements for in-service inspection of French Pressurized Water Reactor power plant components. Non mandatory guidance is given in the Code for defect assessment in a wide range of configurations: surface cracked pipes and elbows under pressure, moment and thermal loading. The Code provides influence coefficients to calculate stress intensity factors in pipes and elbows containing semi-elliptical surface defects (circumferential or longitudinal). The J assessment method is based on the reference stress concept with two options for reference loads evaluation: 'CEP elastic plastic stress' and 'CLC modified limit load'. This paper presents an overview of all the formulations and namely the case of pipe-to elbow junctions. The paper provides also a description of the very large data base of 2D and 3D J elastic-plastic finite element calculations performed to establish and validate the formulations. Finally an applicability domain of the methods is given ensuring a conservative prediction of J. (authors)

  20. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein, E-mail: mahmoudi@uni-hohenheim.de [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C. (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Renn, Ortwin [Department of Technology and Environmental Sociology (and DIALOGIK), University of Stuttgart (Germany); Vanclay, Frank [Department of Cultural Geography, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Hoffmann, Volker [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Karami, Ezatollah [College of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2013-11-15

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.

  1. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-01-01

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary

  2. A comparison of integrated safety analysis and probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Damon, Dennis R.; Mattern, Kevin S.

    2013-01-01

    The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission conducted a comparison of two standard tools for risk informing the regulatory process, namely, the Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) and the Integrated Safety Analysis (ISA). PRA is a calculation of risk metrics, such as Large Early Release Frequency (LERF), and has been used to assess the safety of all commercial power reactors. ISA is an analysis required for fuel cycle facilities (FCFs) licensed to possess potentially critical quantities of special nuclear material. A PRA is usually more detailed and uses more refined models and data than an ISA, in order to obtain reasonable quantitative estimates of risk. PRA is considered fully quantitative, while most ISAs are typically only partially quantitative. The extension of PRA methodology to augment or supplant ISAs in FCFs has long been considered. However, fuel cycle facilities have a wide variety of possible accident consequences, rather than a few surrogates like LERF or core damage as used for reactors. It has been noted that a fuel cycle PRA could be used to better focus attention on the most risk-significant structures, systems, components, and operator actions. ISA and PRA both identify accident sequences; however, their treatment is quite different. ISA's identify accidents that lead to high or intermediate consequences, as defined in 10 Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) 70, and develop a set of Items Relied on For Safety (IROFS) to assure adherence to performance criteria. PRAs identify potential accident scenarios and estimate their frequency and consequences to obtain risk metrics. It is acceptable for ISAs to provide bounding evaluations of accident consequences and likelihoods in order to establish acceptable safety; but PRA applications usually require a reasonable quantitative estimate, and often obtain metrics of uncertainty. This paper provides the background, features, and methodology associated with the PRA and ISA. The differences between the

  3. Risk assessment [Chapter 9

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dennis S. Ojima; Louis R. Iverson; Brent L. Sohngen; James M. Vose; Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke; David L. Peterson; Jeremy S. Littell; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Gary W. Yohe; Megan M. Friggens

    2014-01-01

    What is "risk" in the context of climate change? How can a "risk-based framework" help assess the effects of climate change and develop adaptation priorities? Risk can be described by the likelihood of an impact occurring and the magnitude of the consequences of the impact (Yohe 2010) (Fig. 9.1). High-magnitude impacts are always...

  4. Risk assessment - black art or science?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moore, G.

    1988-01-01

    Measures of risk can be divided into two categories, those that observe or calculate the risk of a process or project, and those that rely on the level of risk as perceived by the people during the assessment. Collection of data of accidents (where cause and effect are obvious) and experiments on animals which can then be extrapolated to humans, are two ways of risk assessment. Mathematical models and computerized simulations, using either fault tree analysis or Monte Carlo methods are explained simply. Using these methods, experts are able to perceive risk fairly realistically. However, the general public's perception of risk is often quite different, as potential risk is assessed in different ways. The concept of tolerable risk is considered, particularly with reference to nuclear reactors such as Sizewell-B. The need to inform the public of safeguards and safety procedures so they have a better understanding of the risks of nuclear power is stressed. (U.K.)

  5. Assessment and Application of the ROSE Code for Reactor Outage Thermal-Hydraulic and Safety Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liang, Thomas K.S.; Ko, F.-K.; Dai, L.-C.

    2001-01-01

    The currently available tools, such as RELAP5, RETRAN, and others, cannot easily and correctly perform the task of analyzing the system behavior during plant outages. Therefore, a medium-sized program aiming at reactor outage simulation and evaluation, such as midloop operation (MLO) with loss of residual heat removal (RHR), has been developed. Important thermal-hydraulic processes involved during MLO with loss of RHR can be properly simulated by the newly developed reactor outage simulation and evaluation (ROSE) code. The two-region approach with a modified two-fluid model has been adopted to be the theoretical basis of the ROSE code.To verify the analytical model in the first step, posttest calculations against the integral midloop experiments with loss of RHR have been performed. The excellent simulation capacity of the ROSE code against the Institute of Nuclear Energy Research Integral System Test Facility test data is demonstrated. To further mature the ROSE code in simulating a full-sized pressurized water reactor, assessment against the WGOTHIC code and the Maanshan momentary-loss-of-RHR event has been undertaken. The successfully assessed ROSE code is then applied to evaluate the abnormal operation procedure (AOP) with loss of RHR during MLO (AOP 537.4) for the Maanshan plant. The ROSE code also has been successfully transplanted into the Maanshan training simulator to support operator training. How the simulator was upgraded by the ROSE code for MLO will be presented in the future

  6. Heavy metal contamination and risk assessment in water, paddy soil, and rice around an electroplating plant.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jie; Zhang, Xue-Hong; Tran, Henry; Wang, Dun-Qiu; Zhu, Yi-Nian

    2011-11-01

    The objective of this paper is to assess the impact of long-term electroplating industrial activities on heavy metal contamination in agricultural soils and potential health risks for local residents. Water, soil, and rice samples were collected from sites upstream (control) and downstream of the electroplating wastewater outlet. The concentrations of heavy metals were determined by an atomic absorption spectrophotometer. Fractionation and risk assessment code (RAC) were used to evaluate the environmental risks of heavy metals in soils. The health risk index (HRI) and hazard index (HI) were calculated to assess potential health risks to local populations through rice consumption. Hazardous levels of Cu, Cr, and Ni were observed in water and paddy soils at sites near the plant. According to the RAC analysis, the soils showed a high risk for Ni and a medium risk for Cu and Cr at certain sites. The rice samples were primarily contaminated with Ni, followed by Cr and Cu. HRI values >1 were not found for any heavy metal. However, HI values for adults and children were 2.075 and 1.808, respectively. Water, paddy soil, and rice from the studied area have been contaminated by Cu, Cr, and Ni. The contamination of these elements is related to the electroplating wastewater. Although no single metal poses health risks for local residents through rice consumption, the combination of several metals may threaten the health of local residents. Cu and Ni are the key components contributing to the potential health risks.

  7. Concerning ethical risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boeckle, F.

    1991-01-01

    After a fundamental consideration of the concept of responsibility and 'long-term responsibility' for late sequelae, the problems of an ehtical assessment of risks were illustrated: The concept of risk itself poses three problems - predicting the probability of occurrence, assessing the damage = subjective classification of the degree of damage, determining whether the advantages outweigh the risks. It is not possible to weigh the advantages and risks against each other without assessing the goals and the priorities which have been set. Here ethics is called for, because it concerns itself with the reasonableness of evaluative decisions. Its task is to enable us to become aware of and comprehend our system of values in all of its complexity in reference to real life. Ethics can only fulfill its task if it helps us to adopt an integral perspective, i.e. if it centers on the human being. 'One must assess all technical and economic innovations in terms of whether they are beneficial to the development of mankind on a long-term basis. They are only to be legitimized insofar as they prove themselves to be a means of liberating mankind and contributing to his sense of dignity and identity, as a means of bringing human beings together and encouraging them to care for one another, and as a means of protecting the natural basis of our existence. (orig./HSCH) [de

  8. Ecological risk assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Suter, Glenn W; Barnthouse, L. W. (Lawrence W)

    2007-01-01

    Ecological risk assessment is commonly applied to the regulation of chemicals, the remediation of contaminated sites, the monitoring of importation of exotic organisms, the management of watersheds...

  9. A nondegenerate code of deleterious variants in Mendelian loci contributes to complex disease risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blair, David R; Lyttle, Christopher S; Mortensen, Jonathan M; Bearden, Charles F; Jensen, Anders Boeck; Khiabanian, Hossein; Melamed, Rachel; Rabadan, Raul; Bernstam, Elmer V; Brunak, Søren; Jensen, Lars Juhl; Nicolae, Dan; Shah, Nigam H; Grossman, Robert L; Cox, Nancy J; White, Kevin P; Rzhetsky, Andrey

    2013-09-26

    Although countless highly penetrant variants have been associated with Mendelian disorders, the genetic etiologies underlying complex diseases remain largely unresolved. By mining the medical records of over 110 million patients, we examine the extent to which Mendelian variation contributes to complex disease risk. We detect thousands of associations between Mendelian and complex diseases, revealing a nondegenerate, phenotypic code that links each complex disorder to a unique collection of Mendelian loci. Using genome-wide association results, we demonstrate that common variants associated with complex diseases are enriched in the genes indicated by this "Mendelian code." Finally, we detect hundreds of comorbidity associations among Mendelian disorders, and we use probabilistic genetic modeling to demonstrate that Mendelian variants likely contribute nonadditively to the risk for a subset of complex diseases. Overall, this study illustrates a complementary approach for mapping complex disease loci and provides unique predictions concerning the etiologies of specific diseases. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System (MACCS)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rollstin, J.A.; Chanin, D.I.; Jow, H.N.

    1990-02-01

    This report describes the MACCS computer code. The purpose of this code is to simulate the impact of severe accidents at nuclear power plants on the surrounding environment. MACCS has been developed for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission to replace the previously used CRAC2 code, and it incorporates many improvements in modeling flexibility in comparison to CRAC2. The principal phenomena considered in MACCS are atmospheric transport, mitigative actions based on dose projections, dose accumulation by a number of pathways including food and water ingestion, early and latent health effects, and economic costs. The MACCS code can be used for a variety of applications. These include (1) probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of nuclear power plants and other nuclear facilities, (2) sensitivity studies to gain a better understanding of the parameters important to PRA, and (3) cost-benefit analysis. This report is composed of three volumes. Volume I, the User's Guide, describes the input data requirements of the MACCS code and provides directions for its use as illustrated by three sample problems. Volume II, the Model Description, describes the underlying models that are implemented in the code, and Volume III, the Programmer's Reference Manual, describes the code's structure and database management

  11. MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System (MACCS)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jow, H.N.; Sprung, J.L.; Ritchie, L.T. (Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (USA)); Rollstin, J.A. (GRAM, Inc., Albuquerque, NM (USA)); Chanin, D.I. (Technadyne Engineering Consultants, Inc., Albuquerque, NM (USA))

    1990-02-01

    This report describes the MACCS computer code. The purpose of this code is to simulate the impact of severe accidents at nuclear power plants on the surrounding environment. MACCS has been developed for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission to replace the previously used CRAC2 code, and it incorporates many improvements in modeling flexibility in comparison to CRAC2. The principal phenomena considered in MACCS are atmospheric transport, mitigative actions based on dose projection, dose accumulation by a number of pathways including food and water ingestion, early and latent health effects, and economic costs. The MACCS code can be used for a variety of applications. These include (1) probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of nuclear power plants and other nuclear facilities, (2) sensitivity studies to gain a better understanding of the parameters important to PRA, and (3) cost-benefit analysis. This report is composed of three volumes. Volume I, the User's Guide, describes the input data requirements of the MACCS code and provides directions for its use as illustrated by three sample problems. Volume II, the Model Description, describes the underlying models that are implemented in the code, and Volume III, the Programmer's Reference Manual, describes the code's structure and database management. 59 refs., 14 figs., 15 tabs.

  12. MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System (MACCS)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jow, H.N.; Sprung, J.L.; Ritchie, L.T.; Rollstin, J.A.; Chanin, D.I.

    1990-02-01

    This report describes the MACCS computer code. The purpose of this code is to simulate the impact of severe accidents at nuclear power plants on the surrounding environment. MACCS has been developed for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission to replace the previously used CRAC2 code, and it incorporates many improvements in modeling flexibility in comparison to CRAC2. The principal phenomena considered in MACCS are atmospheric transport, mitigative actions based on dose projection, dose accumulation by a number of pathways including food and water ingestion, early and latent health effects, and economic costs. The MACCS code can be used for a variety of applications. These include (1) probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of nuclear power plants and other nuclear facilities, (2) sensitivity studies to gain a better understanding of the parameters important to PRA, and (3) cost-benefit analysis. This report is composed of three volumes. Volume I, the User's Guide, describes the input data requirements of the MACCS code and provides directions for its use as illustrated by three sample problems. Volume II, the Model Description, describes the underlying models that are implemented in the code, and Volume III, the Programmer's Reference Manual, describes the code's structure and database management. 59 refs., 14 figs., 15 tabs

  13. A risk communication case study: the Nevada risk assessment/management program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hechanova, A.E.

    2001-01-01

    The Nevada Risk Assessment/Management Program is part of a national effort by the U.S. Department of Energy (Grant DE-FG01-96EW56093) to develop new sources of information and approaches to risk assessment, risk management, risk communication and public outreach as these objectives relate to the ecological and human health effects of radioactive and hazardous material management and site remediation activities. This paper reviews the innovation behind the Nevada Risk Assessment/Management Program and presents a synopsis of the effort that began in 1995 and will officially conclude on April 30, 2000. (author)

  14. Caries risk assessment in children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, S

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE: To summarise the findings of recent systematic reviews (SR) covering caries risk assessment in children, updated with recent primary studies. METHODS: A search for relevant papers published 2012-2014 was conducted in electronic databases. The systematic reviews were quality assessed...... displayed a high risk of bias. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the present summary of literature, it may be concluded: (1) a caries risk assessment should be carried out at the child's first dental visit and reassessments should be done during childhood (D); (2) multivariate models display a better accuracy than...... the use of single predictors and this is especially true for preschool children (C); (3) there is no clearly superior method to predict future caries and no evidence to support the use of one model, program, or technology before the other (C); and (4) the risk category should be linked to appropriate...

  15. Software Certification - Coding, Code, and Coders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Havelund, Klaus; Holzmann, Gerard J.

    2011-01-01

    We describe a certification approach for software development that has been adopted at our organization. JPL develops robotic spacecraft for the exploration of the solar system. The flight software that controls these spacecraft is considered to be mission critical. We argue that the goal of a software certification process cannot be the development of "perfect" software, i.e., software that can be formally proven to be correct under all imaginable and unimaginable circumstances. More realistically, the goal is to guarantee a software development process that is conducted by knowledgeable engineers, who follow generally accepted procedures to control known risks, while meeting agreed upon standards of workmanship. We target three specific issues that must be addressed in such a certification procedure: the coding process, the code that is developed, and the skills of the coders. The coding process is driven by standards (e.g., a coding standard) and tools. The code is mechanically checked against the standard with the help of state-of-the-art static source code analyzers. The coders, finally, are certified in on-site training courses that include formal exams.

  16. ASTARTE: Assessment Strategy and Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baptista, M. A.; Yalciner, A. C.; Canals, M.

    2014-12-01

    Tsunamis are low frequency but high impact natural disasters. In 2004, the Boxing Day tsunami killed hundreds of thousands of people from many nations along the coastlines of the Indian Ocean. Tsunami run-up exceeded 35 m. Seven years later, and in spite of some of the best warning technologies and levels of preparedness in the world, the Tohoku-Oki tsunami in Japan dramatically showed the limitations of scientific knowledge on tsunami sources, coastal impacts and mitigation measures. The experience from Japan raised serious questions on how to improve the resilience of coastal communities, to upgrade the performance of coastal defenses, to adopt a better risk management, and also on the strategies and priorities for the reconstruction of damaged coastal areas. Societal resilience requires the reinforcement of capabilities to manage and reduce risk at national and local scales.ASTARTE (Assessment STrategy And Risk for Tsunami in Europe), a 36-month FP7 project, aims to develop a comprehensive strategy to mitigate tsunami impact in this region. To achieve this goal, an interdisciplinary consortium has been assembled. It includes all CTWPs of NEAM and expert institutions across Europe and worldwide. ASTARTE will improve i) basic knowledge of tsunami generation and recurrence going beyond simple catalogues, with novel empirical data and new statistical analyses for assessing long-term recurrence and hazards of large events in sensitive areas of NEAM, ii) numerical techniques for tsunami simulation, with focus on real-time codes and novel statistical emulation approaches, and iii) methods for assessment of hazard, vulnerability, and risk. ASTARTE will also provide i) guidelines for tsunami Eurocodes, ii) better tools for forecast and warning for CTWPs and NTWCs, and iii) guidelines for decision makers to increase sustainability and resilience of coastal communities. In summary, ASTARTE will develop basic scientific and technical elements allowing for a significant

  17. [Regional atmospheric environment risk source identification and assessment].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiao-Chun; Chen, Wei-Ping; Ma, Chun; Zhan, Shui-Fen; Jiao, Wen-Tao

    2012-12-01

    Identification and assessment for atmospheric environment risk source plays an important role in regional atmospheric risk assessment and regional atmospheric pollution prevention and control. The likelihood exposure and consequence assessment method (LEC method) and the Delphi method were employed to build a fast and effective method for identification and assessment of regional atmospheric environment risk sources. This method was applied to the case study of a large coal transportation port in North China. The assessment results showed that the risk characteristics and the harm degree of regional atmospheric environment risk source were in line with the actual situation. Fast and effective identification and assessment of risk source has laid an important foundation for the regional atmospheric environmental risk assessment and regional atmospheric pollution prevention and control.

  18. OPPT workplan risk assessment for Trichloroethylene ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    The assessment will focus on uses of TCE as a degreaser and in consumer products used by individuals in the arts/crafts field. Given the range of endpoints (cancer, non-cancer; the latter includes potential effects on the developing fetus), it is expected that susceptible populations would be children (as bystanders physically near the actual consumer use of the products) and adults of all ages (including pregnant women). Thus, the assessment will focus on all human/lifestages. EPA anticipates issuing draft risk assessments for public review and comment as they are completed. At the conclusion of the review process, if an assessment of specific uses indicates significant risk, EPA will evaluate and pursue appropriate risk reduction actions, as warranted. If an assessment indicates no significant risk, EPA will conclude its current work on assessment of those specified targeted uses of that chemical. Over time, additional chemicals will be added to the work plan as more data are developed and more chemicals screened.

  19. Speciation and environmental risk assessment of heavy metal in bio-oil from liquefaction/pyrolysis of sewage sludge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Xingzhong; Leng, Lijian; Huang, Huajun; Chen, Xiaohong; Wang, Hou; Xiao, Zhihua; Zhai, Yunbo; Chen, Hongmei; Zeng, Guangming

    2015-02-01

    Liquefaction bio-oil (LBO) produced with ethanol (or acetone) as the solvent and pyrolysis bio-oil (PBO) produced at 550°C (or 850°C) from sewage sludge (SS) were produced, and were characterized and evaluated in terms of their heavy metal (HM) composition. The total concentration, speciation and leaching characteristic of HMs (Cu, Cr, Pb, Zn, Cd, and Ni) in both LBO and PBO were investigated. The total concentration and exchangeable fraction of Zn and Ni in bio-oils were at surprisingly high levels. Quantitative risk assessment of HM in bio-oils was performed by the method of risk assessment code (RAC), potential ecological risk index (PERI) and geo-accumulation index (GAI). Ni in bio-oil produced by pyrolysis at 850°C (PBO850) and Zn in bio-oil by liquefaction at 360°C with ethanol as solvent (LBO-360E) were evaluated to possess very high risk to the environment according to RAC. Additionally, Cd in PBO850 and LBO-360E were evaluated by PERI to have very high risk and high risk, respectively, while Cd in all bio-oils was assessed moderately contaminated according to GAI. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Assessment of critical flow models of RELAP5-MOD2 and CATHARE codes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hao Laomi; Zhu Zhanchuan

    1992-01-01

    The critical flow tests for the long and short nozzles conducted on the SUPER MOBY-DICK facility were analyzed using the RELAP5-MOD2 and CATHARE 1.3 codes to assess the critical flow models of two codes. The critical mass flux calculated for two nozzles are given. The CATHARE code has used the thermodynamic nonequilibrium sound velocity of the two-phase fluid as the critical flow criterion, and has the better interphase transfer models and calculates the critical flow velocities with the completely implicit solution. Therefore, it can well calculate the critical flowrate and can describe the effect of the geometry L/D on the critical flowrate

  1. Tools for Microbiological risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bassett, john; Nauta, Maarten; Lindqvist, Roland

    can increase the understanding of microbiological risks in foods. It is timely to inform food safety professionals about the availability and utility of MRA tools. Therefore, the focus of this report is to aid the food safety manager by providing a concise summary of the tools available for the MRA......Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) has emerged as a comprehensive and systematic approach for addressing the risk of pathogens in specific foods and/or processes. At government level, MRA is increasingly recognised as a structured and objective approach to understand the level of risk in a given...... food/pathogen scenario. Tools developed so far support qualitative and quantitative assessments of the risk that a food pathogen poses to a particular population. Risk can be expressed as absolute numbers or as relative (ranked) risks. The food industry is beginning to appreciate that the tools for MRA...

  2. Modeling for operational event risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sattison, M.B.

    1997-01-01

    The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission has been using risk models to evaluate the risk significance of operational events in U.S. commercial nuclear power plants for more seventeen years. During that time, the models have evolved in response to the advances in risk assessment technology and insights gained with experience. Evaluation techniques fall into two categories, initiating event assessments and condition assessments. The models used for these analyses have become uniquely specialized for just this purpose

  3. Coding update of the SMFM definition of low risk for cesarean delivery from ICD-9-CM to ICD-10-CM.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armstrong, Joanne; McDermott, Patricia; Saade, George R; Srinivas, Sindhu K

    2017-07-01

    In 2015, the Society for Maternal-Fetal Medicine developed a low risk for cesarean delivery definition based on administrative claims-based diagnosis codes described by the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification. The Society for Maternal-Fetal Medicine definition is a clinical enrichment of 2 available measures from the Joint Commission and the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality measures. The Society for Maternal-Fetal Medicine measure excludes diagnosis codes that represent clinically relevant risk factors that are absolute or relative contraindications to vaginal birth while retaining diagnosis codes such as labor disorders that are discretionary risk factors for cesarean delivery. The introduction of the International Statistical Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision, Clinical Modification in October 2015 expanded the number of available diagnosis codes and enabled a greater depth and breadth of clinical description. These coding improvements further enhance the clinical validity of the Society for Maternal-Fetal Medicine definition and its potential utility in tracking progress toward the goal of safely lowering the US cesarean delivery rate. This report updates the Society for Maternal-Fetal Medicine definition of low risk for cesarean delivery using International Statistical Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision, Clinical Modification coding. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  4. The Volcanic Hazards Assessment Support System for the Online Hazard Assessment and Risk Mitigation of Quaternary Volcanoes in the World

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shinji Takarada

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Volcanic hazards assessment tools are essential for risk mitigation of volcanic activities. A number of offline volcanic hazard assessment tools have been provided, but in most cases, they require relatively complex installation procedure and usage. This situation causes limited usage of volcanic hazard assessment tools among volcanologists and volcanic hazards communities. In addition, volcanic eruption chronology and detailed database of each volcano in the world are essential key information for volcanic hazard assessment, but most of them are isolated and not connected to and with each other. The Volcanic Hazard Assessment Support System aims to implement a user-friendly, WebGIS-based, open-access online system for potential hazards assessment and risk-mitigation of Quaternary volcanoes in the world. The users can get up-to-date information such as eruption chronology and geophysical monitoring data of a specific volcano using the direct link system to major volcano databases on the system. Currently, the system provides 3 simple, powerful and notable deterministic modeling simulation codes of volcanic processes, such as Energy Cone, Titan2D and Tephra2. The system provides deterministic tools because probabilistic assessment tools are normally much more computationally demanding. By using the volcano hazard assessment system, the area that would be affected by volcanic eruptions in any location near the volcano can be estimated using numerical simulations. The system is being implemented using the ASTER Global DEM covering 2790 Quaternary volcanoes in the world. The system can be used to evaluate volcanic hazards and move this toward risk-potential by overlaying the estimated distribution of volcanic gravity flows or tephra falls on major roads, houses and evacuation areas using the GIS-enabled systems. The system is developed for all users in the world who need volcanic hazards assessment tools.

  5. Development of TIME2 code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1986-02-01

    The paper reviews the progress on the development of a computer model TIME2, for modelling the long term evolution of shallow burial site environments for low- and intermediate-level radioactive waste disposal. The subject is discussed under the five topic headings: 1) background studies, including geomorphology, climate, human-induced effects, and seismicity, 2) development of the TIME2 code, 3) verification and testing, 4) documentation, and, 5) role of TIME2 in radiological risk assessment. (U.K.)

  6. Risk assessment of forensic patients: nurses' role.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Encinares, Maxima; McMaster, Jeff James; McNamee, Jim

    2005-03-01

    One of the unique roles of forensic nurses is to conduct risk assessments. Establishing a therapeutic nurse-patient relationship helps forensic nurses perform accurate and useful risk assessments. Accurate risk assessments can facilitate formulation of individualized risk management plans, designed to meet patients' needs and ensure public safety. The importance of forensic nurses' knowledge and application of appropriate communication and proper documentation cannot be overemphasized.

  7. Ethical dimensions in assessing technical risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birnbacher, D.

    1991-01-01

    Contrary to the present tendency of partially impact-independent technology assessment, the author does not see a difference between a risk-benefit analysis and an ethical technology assessment. As long as the risk-benefit analysis is truly comprehensive, both fall together. This does not mean that convictions of those who have their doubts about some new technologies, independently of impact assessments, may be disregarded in purely consequential risk evaluations. On the contrary, qualms of representatives of these principles, just as any other stable non-acceptance, have to be included as aggravating negative elements in technology assessments. (orig./HSCH) [de

  8. Total cardiovascular disease risk assessment: a review.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2011-09-01

    The high risk strategy for the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) requires an assessment of an individual\\'s total CVD risk so that the most intensive risk factor management can be directed towards those at highest risk. Here we review developments in the assessment and estimation of total CVD risk.

  9. Risk assessment of carcinogens in food

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barlow, Susan; Schlatter, Josef

    2010-01-01

    Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a 'margin of exposure' approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

  10. Risk assessment of carcinogens in food.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barlow, Susan; Schlatter, Josef

    2010-03-01

    Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a "margin of exposure" approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

  11. Validity of Principal Diagnoses in Discharge Summaries and ICD-10 Coding Assessments Based on National Health Data of Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sukanya, Chongthawonsatid

    2017-10-01

    This study examined the validity of the principal diagnoses on discharge summaries and coding assessments. Data were collected from the National Health Security Office (NHSO) of Thailand in 2015. In total, 118,971 medical records were audited. The sample was drawn from government hospitals and private hospitals covered by the Universal Coverage Scheme in Thailand. Hospitals and cases were selected using NHSO criteria. The validity of the principal diagnoses listed in the "Summary and Coding Assessment" forms was established by comparing data from the discharge summaries with data obtained from medical record reviews, and additionally, by comparing data from the coding assessments with data in the computerized ICD (the data base used for reimbursement-purposes). The summary assessments had low sensitivities (7.3%-37.9%), high specificities (97.2%-99.8%), low positive predictive values (9.2%-60.7%), and high negative predictive values (95.9%-99.3%). The coding assessments had low sensitivities (31.1%-69.4%), high specificities (99.0%-99.9%), moderate positive predictive values (43.8%-89.0%), and high negative predictive values (97.3%-99.5%). The discharge summaries and codings often contained mistakes, particularly the categories "Endocrine, nutritional, and metabolic diseases", "Symptoms, signs, and abnormal clinical and laboratory findings not elsewhere classified", "Factors influencing health status and contact with health services", and "Injury, poisoning, and certain other consequences of external causes". The validity of the principal diagnoses on the summary and coding assessment forms was found to be low. The training of physicians and coders must be strengthened to improve the validity of discharge summaries and codings.

  12. A code MOGRA for predicting and assessing the migration of ground additions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amano, Hikaru; Atarashi-Andoh, Mariko; Uchida, Shigeo; Matsuoka, Syungo; Ikeda, Hiroshi; Hayashi, Hiroko; Kurosawa, Naohiro

    2004-01-01

    The environment should be protected from the toxic effects of not only ionizing radiation but also any other environmental load materials. A Code MOGRA (Migration Of GRound Additions) is a migration prediction code for toxic ground additions including radioactive materials in a terrestrial environment, which consists of computational codes that are applicable to various evaluation target systems, and can be used on personal computers for not only the purpose of the migration analysis but also the environmental assessment to livings of the environmental load materials. The functionality of MOGRA has been verified by applying it in the analyses of the migration rates of radioactive substances from the atmosphere to soils and plants and flow rates into the rivers. Migration of radionuclides in combinations of hypothetical various land utilization areas was also verified. The system can analyze the dynamic changes of target radionuclide's concentrations in each compartment, fluxes from one compartment to another compartment. The code MOGRA has varieties of databases, which is included in an additional code MOGRA-DB. This additional code MOGRA-DB consists of radionuclides decay chart, distribution coefficients between solid and liquid, transfer factors from soil to plant, transfer coefficients from feed to beef and milk, concentration factors, and age dependent dose conversion factors for many radionuclides. Another additional code MOGRA-MAP can take in graphic map such as JPEG, TIFF, BITMAP, and GIF files, and calculate the square measure of the target land. (author)

  13. Impact of shutdown risk on risk-based assessment of technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deriot, S.

    1992-10-01

    This paper describes the current work performed by the Research and Development Division of EDF concerning risk-based assessment of Operating Technical Specifications (OTS). The current risk-based assessment of OTS at EDF is presented. Then, the level 1 Probabilistic Safety Assessment of unit 3 of the Paluel nuclear power station (called PSA 1300) is described. It is fully computerized and takes into account the risk in shutdown states. A case study is presented. It shows that the fact of considering shutdown risk suggests that the current OTS should be modified

  14. Risk Assessment Uncertainties in Cybersecurity Investments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Fielder

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available When undertaking cybersecurity risk assessments, it is important to be able to assign numeric values to metrics to compute the final expected loss that represents the risk that an organization is exposed to due to cyber threats. Even if risk assessment is motivated by real-world observations and data, there is always a high chance of assigning inaccurate values due to different uncertainties involved (e.g., evolving threat landscape, human errors and the natural difficulty of quantifying risk. Existing models empower organizations to compute optimal cybersecurity strategies given their financial constraints, i.e., available cybersecurity budget. Further, a general game-theoretic model with uncertain payoffs (probability-distribution-valued payoffs shows that such uncertainty can be incorporated in the game-theoretic model by allowing payoffs to be random. This paper extends previous work in the field to tackle uncertainties in risk assessment that affect cybersecurity investments. The findings from simulated examples indicate that although uncertainties in cybersecurity risk assessment lead, on average, to different cybersecurity strategies, they do not play a significant role in the final expected loss of the organization when utilising a game-theoretic model and methodology to derive these strategies. The model determines robust defending strategies even when knowledge regarding risk assessment values is not accurate. As a result, it is possible to show that the cybersecurity investments’ tool is capable of providing effective decision support.

  15. Idaho National Engineering Laboratory code assessment of the Rocky Flats transuranic waste

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-07-01

    This report is an assessment of the content codes associated with transuranic waste shipped from the Rocky Flats Plant in Golden, Colorado, to INEL. The primary objective of this document is to characterize and describe the transuranic wastes shipped to INEL from Rocky Flats by item description code (IDC). This information will aid INEL in determining if the waste meets the waste acceptance criteria (WAC) of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). The waste covered by this content code assessment was shipped from Rocky Flats between 1985 and 1989. These years coincide with the dates for information available in the Rocky Flats Solid Waste Information Management System (SWIMS). The majority of waste shipped during this time was certified to the existing WIPP WAC. This waste is referred to as precertified waste. Reassessment of these precertified waste containers is necessary because of changes in the WIPP WAC. To accomplish this assessment, the analytical and process knowledge available on the various IDCs used at Rocky Flats were evaluated. Rocky Flats sources for this information include employee interviews, SWIMS, Transuranic Waste Certification Program, Transuranic Waste Inspection Procedure, Backlog Waste Baseline Books, WIPP Experimental Waste Characterization Program (headspace analysis), and other related documents, procedures, and programs. Summaries are provided of: (a) certification information, (b) waste description, (c) generation source, (d) recovery method, (e) waste packaging and handling information, (f) container preparation information, (g) assay information, (h) inspection information, (i) analytical data, and (j) RCRA characterization.

  16. Engineering aspects of probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    vonHerrmann, J.L.; Wood, P.J.

    1984-01-01

    Over the last decade, the use of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in the nuclear industry has expanded significantly. In these analyses the probabilities of experiencing certain undesired events (for example, a plant accident which results in damage to the nuclear fuel) are estimated and the consequences of these events are evaluated in terms of some common measure. These probabilities and consequences are then combined to form a representation of the risk associated with the plant studied. In the relatively short history of probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear power plants, the primary motivation for these studies has been the quantitative assessment of public risk associated with a single plant or group of plants. Accordingly, the primary product of most PRAs performed to date has been a 'risk curve' in which the probability (or expected frequency) of exceeding a certain consequence level is plotted against that consequence. The most common goal of these assessments has been to demonstrate the 'acceptability' of the calculated risk by comparison of the resultant risk curve to risk curves associated with other plants or with other societal risks. Presented here are brief descriptions of some alternate applications of PRAs, a discussion of how these other applications compare or contrast with the currently popular uses of PRA, and a discussion of the relative benefits of each

  17. Insurance World in Transition: Changes in Global Risk Taking and Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michel, Gero; Tiampo, Kristy

    2015-04-01

    Catastrophe insurance risk assessment, risk taking, and regulation has evolved over the last 20 years and is gearing up for significant further change in the years ahead. Changes in regulation and influx of capital have put profit margins for catastrophe risk products under pressure despite the fact that changes in climate as well as increasing insurance penetration is expected to heighten demand. As a result, reinsurance strategies are moving away from catastrophe risk. In addition, lower margins require cheaper and more efficient risk assessment methods and processes which are contrary to evolving analytical tools and methods that had increased expenses in line with growing margins over the last decade. New capital providers are less familiar with and less willing to accept complex supply chains for risk management, relationship-driven business and tedious data exchange and management processes. Risk takers claim new measures and ask for more flexibility in the use of tools. The current concepts of catastrophe insurance risk assessment are hence under thorough scrutiny. This presentation deals with the changing landscape in catastrophe insurance risk assessment and risk hedging and discusses changes in catastrophe risk assessment products and demand. How likely is it that private, small and nimble hazard and risk consulting groups - increasingly emanating from larger science organizations - will replace large established firms in their role to assess risk? What role do public-private academic partnerships play in assuming risk for catastrophe insurance and what role could they play in the future? What are the opportunities and downsides of the current changes in risk taking and hedging? What is needed from the scientific community in order to fill the gaps in risk management and who is likely to take advantage of the current changes?

  18. DISP1 code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vokac, P.

    1999-12-01

    DISP1 code is a simple tool for assessment of the dispersion of the fission product cloud escaping from a nuclear power plant after an accident. The code makes it possible to tentatively check the feasibility of calculations by more complex PSA3 codes and/or codes for real-time dispersion calculations. The number of input parameters is reasonably low and the user interface is simple enough to allow a rapid processing of sensitivity analyses. All input data entered through the user interface are stored in the text format. Implementation of dispersion model corrections taken from the ARCON96 code enables the DISP1 code to be employed for assessment of the radiation hazard within the NPP area, in the control room for instance. (P.A.)

  19. Risk-based management system development for the Advanced Test Reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davis, M.L.; Eide, S.A.

    1990-01-01

    A Risk-Based Management System (RBMS) is being developed to facilitate the use of the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) probabilistic risk assessment to support ATR operation. Most ATR RBMS questions can best be answered using the System Analysis and Risk Assessment System (SARA) developed at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory. However, some applications may require employment of the other four codes used to develop and report the PRA. These four codes include the Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS), SETS, ETA-II, and the Nuclear Computerized Library for Assessing Reactor Reliability (NUCLARR). The ATR RBMS will evolve over three years, and will include the results of the Level 3 and external events analysis

  20. Health risk assessment of exposure to ionizing radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ogata, Hiromitsu

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment is an essential process for evaluating the human health effects of exposure to ionizing radiation and for determining acceptable levels of exposure. There are two major components of radiation risk assessment: a measure of exposure level and a measure of disease occurrence. For quantitative estimation of health risks, it is important to evaluate the association between exposure and disease occurrence using epidemiological or experimental data. In these approaches, statistical risk models are used particularly for estimating cancer risks related to exposure to low levels of radiation. This paper presents a summary of basic models and methods of risk assessment for studying exposure-risk relationships. Moreover, quantitative risk estimates are subject to several sources of uncertainty due to inherent limitations in risk assessment studies. This paper also discusses the limitations of radiation risk assessment. (author)

  1. Improvement of Level-1 PSA computer code package -A study for nuclear safety improvement-

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Chang Kyu; Kim, Tae Woon; Ha, Jae Joo; Han, Sang Hoon; Cho, Yeong Kyun; Jeong, Won Dae; Jang, Seung Cheol; Choi, Young; Seong, Tae Yong; Kang, Dae Il; Hwang, Mi Jeong; Choi, Seon Yeong; An, Kwang Il

    1994-07-01

    This year is the second year of the Government-sponsored Mid- and Long-Term Nuclear Power Technology Development Project. The scope of this subproject titled on 'The Improvement of Level-1 PSA Computer Codes' is divided into three main activities : (1) Methodology development on the under-developed fields such as risk assessment technology for plant shutdown and external events, (2) Computer code package development for Level-1 PSA, (3) Applications of new technologies to reactor safety assessment. At first, in the area of PSA methodology development, foreign PSA reports on shutdown and external events have been reviewed and various PSA methodologies have been compared. Level-1 PSA code KIRAP and CCF analysis code COCOA are converted from KOS to Windows. Human reliability database has been also established in this year. In the area of new technology applications, fuzzy set theory and entropy theory are used to estimate component life and to develop a new measure of uncertainty importance. Finally, in the field of application study of PSA technique to reactor regulation, a strategic study to develop a dynamic risk management tool PEPSI and the determination of inspection and test priority of motor operated valves based on risk importance worths have been studied. (Author)

  2. Decoding the non-coding genome: elucidating genetic risk outside the coding genome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barr, C L; Misener, V L

    2016-01-01

    Current evidence emerging from genome-wide association studies indicates that the genetic underpinnings of complex traits are likely attributable to genetic variation that changes gene expression, rather than (or in combination with) variation that changes protein-coding sequences. This is particularly compelling with respect to psychiatric disorders, as genetic changes in regulatory regions may result in differential transcriptional responses to developmental cues and environmental/psychosocial stressors. Until recently, however, the link between transcriptional regulation and psychiatric genetic risk has been understudied. Multiple obstacles have contributed to the paucity of research in this area, including challenges in identifying the positions of remote (distal from the promoter) regulatory elements (e.g. enhancers) and their target genes and the underrepresentation of neural cell types and brain tissues in epigenome projects - the availability of high-quality brain tissues for epigenetic and transcriptome profiling, particularly for the adolescent and developing brain, has been limited. Further challenges have arisen in the prediction and testing of the functional impact of DNA variation with respect to multiple aspects of transcriptional control, including regulatory-element interaction (e.g. between enhancers and promoters), transcription factor binding and DNA methylation. Further, the brain has uncommon DNA-methylation marks with unique genomic distributions not found in other tissues - current evidence suggests the involvement of non-CG methylation and 5-hydroxymethylation in neurodevelopmental processes but much remains unknown. We review here knowledge gaps as well as both technological and resource obstacles that will need to be overcome in order to elucidate the involvement of brain-relevant gene-regulatory variants in genetic risk for psychiatric disorders. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd and International Behavioural and Neural Genetics Society.

  3. Sovereign default risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rijken, H.A.; Altman, E.I.

    2013-01-01

    We propose a new approach toward assessing sovereign risk by examining rigorously the health and aggregate default risk of a nation's private corporate sector. Models can be utilised to measure the probability of default of the non-financial sector cumulatively for five years, both as an absolute

  4. Selection of a computer code for Hanford low-level waste engineered-system performance assessment. Revision 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McGrail, B.P.; Bacon, D.H.

    1998-02-01

    Planned performance assessments for the proposed disposal of low-activity waste (LAW) glass produced from remediation of wastes stored in underground tanks at Hanford, Washington will require calculations of radionuclide release rates from the subsurface disposal facility. These calculations will be done with the aid of computer codes. The available computer codes with suitable capabilities at the time Revision 0 of this document was prepared were ranked in terms of the feature sets implemented in the code that match a set of physical, chemical, numerical, and functional capabilities needed to assess release rates from the engineered system. The needed capabilities were identified from an analysis of the important physical and chemical processes expected to affect LAW glass corrosion and the mobility of radionuclides. This analysis was repeated in this report but updated to include additional processes that have been found to be important since Revision 0 was issued and to include additional codes that have been released. The highest ranked computer code was found to be the STORM code developed at PNNL for the US Department of Energy for evaluation of arid land disposal sites

  5. Safety analysis, risk assessment, and risk acceptance criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jamali, K.

    1997-01-01

    This paper discusses a number of topics that relate safety analysis as documented in the Department of Energy (DOE) safety analysis reports (SARs), probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) as characterized primarily in the context of the techniques that have assumed some level of formality in commercial nuclear power plant applications, and risk acceptance criteria as an outgrowth of PRA applications. DOE SARs of interest are those that are prepared for DOE facilities under DOE Order 5480.23 and the implementing guidance in DOE STD-3009-94. It must be noted that the primary area of application for DOE STD-3009 is existing DOE facilities and that certain modifications of the STD-3009 approach are necessary in SARs for new facilities. Moreover, it is the hazard analysis (HA) and accident analysis (AA) portions of these SARs that are relevant to the present discussions. Although PRAs can be qualitative in nature, PRA as used in this paper refers more generally to all quantitative risk assessments and their underlying methods. HA as used in this paper refers more generally to all qualitative risk assessments and their underlying methods that have been in use in hazardous facilities other than nuclear power plants. This discussion includes both quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methods. PRA has been used, improved, developed, and refined since the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) was published in 1975 by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Much debate has ensued since WASH-1400 on exactly what the role of PRA should be in plant design, reactor licensing, 'ensuring' plant and process safety, and a large number of other decisions that must be made for potentially hazardous activities. Of particular interest in this area is whether the risks quantified using PRA should be compared with numerical risk acceptance criteria (RACs) to determine whether a facility is 'safe.' Use of RACs requires quantitative estimates of consequence frequency and magnitude

  6. PRECIS -- A probabilistic risk assessment system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, D.M.; Knowlton, R.G. Jr.

    1996-01-01

    A series of computer tools has been developed to conduct the exposure assessment and risk characterization phases of human health risk assessments within a probabilistic framework. The tools are collectively referred to as the Probabilistic Risk Evaluation and Characterization Investigation System (PRECIS). With this system, a risk assessor can calculate the doses and risks associated with multiple environmental and exposure pathways, for both chemicals and radioactive contaminants. Exposure assessment models in the system account for transport of contaminants to receptor points from a source zone originating in unsaturated soils above the water table. In addition to performing calculations of dose and risk based on initial concentrations, PRECIS can also be used in an inverse manner to compute soil concentrations in the source area that must not be exceeded if prescribed limits on dose or risk are to be met. Such soil contaminant levels, referred to as soil guidelines, are computed for both single contaminants and chemical mixtures and can be used as action levels or cleanup levels. Probabilistic estimates of risk, dose and soil guidelines are derived using Monte Carlo techniques

  7. Risk assessment of soil contamination criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    King, C.M.; Marter, W.L.; Montaque, D.F.; Holton, G.A.

    1987-06-01

    Criteria have been developed to select radioactive and nonradioactive contaminants at waste sites detailed analysis and risk assessment. These criteria were based on soil and water quality guidelines developed by various government agencies to determine if the criteria were appropriate. We performed a risk assessment of a hypothetical site which contained radioactive and nonradioactive contaminants at levels equal to the criteria values. Risks to the public from atmospheric, surface water, and groundwater exposure pathways were examined. Health risks to the public from atmospheric releases of radioactive and nonradioactive materials from a waste at soil criteria contamination levels are low. Health risks to the maximally exposed individual to chemical carcinogens are considerably below traditional EPA action levels. And health risks to the maximally exposed individual to atmospherically released radioactive contaminants is 1.88 x 10 -7 , more than a factor of 5 less than 10 -6 . Based on our atmospheric exposure pathways analysis and risk assessment, the applied soil criteria are appropriate for screening out unimportant risk contributors to human health from atmospheric exposure pathways. 13 refs., 3 figs., 7 tabs

  8. Hydrogen burn assessment with the CONTAIN code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    van Rij, H.M.

    1986-01-01

    The CONTAIN computer code was developed at Sandia National Laboratories, under contract to the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). The code is intended for calculations of containment loads during severe accidents and for prediction of the radioactive source term in the event that the containment leaks or fails. A strong point of the CONTAIN code is the continuous interaction of the thermal-hydraulics phenomena, aerosol behavior and fission product behavior. The CONTAIN code can be used for Light Water Reactors as well as Liquid Metal Reactors. In order to evaluate the CONTAIN code on its merits, comparisons between the code and experiments must be made. In this paper, CONTAIN calculations for the hydrogen burn experiments, carried out at the Nevada Test Site (NTS), are presented and compared with the experimental data. In the Large-Scale Hydrogen Combustion Facility at the NTS, 21 tests have been carried out. These tests were sponsored by the NRC and the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). The tests, carried out by EG and G, were performed in a spherical vessel 16 m in diameter with a design pressure of 700 kPa, substantially higher than that of most commercial nuclear containment buildings

  9. Assessing Extinction Risk: Integrating Genetic Information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jason Dunham

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available Risks of population extinction have been estimated using a variety of methods incorporating information from different spatial and temporal scales. We briefly consider how several broad classes of extinction risk assessments, including population viability analysis, incidence functions, and ranking methods integrate information on different temporal and spatial scales. In many circumstances, data from surveys of neutral genetic variability within, and among, populations can provide information useful for assessing extinction risk. Patterns of genetic variability resulting from past and present ecological and demographic events, can indicate risks of extinction that are otherwise difficult to infer from ecological and demographic analyses alone. We provide examples of how patterns of neutral genetic variability, both within, and among populations, can be used to corroborate and complement extinction risk assessments.

  10. Non-US data compression and coding research. FASAC Technical Assessment Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gray, R.M.; Cohn, M.; Craver, L.W.; Gersho, A.; Lookabaugh, T.; Pollara, F.; Vetterli, M.

    1993-11-01

    This assessment of recent data compression and coding research outside the United States examines fundamental and applied work in the basic areas of signal decomposition, quantization, lossless compression, and error control, as well as application development efforts in image/video compression and speech/audio compression. Seven computer scientists and engineers who are active in development of these technologies in US academia, government, and industry carried out the assessment. Strong industrial and academic research groups in Western Europe, Israel, and the Pacific Rim are active in the worldwide search for compression algorithms that provide good tradeoffs among fidelity, bit rate, and computational complexity, though the theoretical roots and virtually all of the classical compression algorithms were developed in the United States. Certain areas, such as segmentation coding, model-based coding, and trellis-coded modulation, have developed earlier or in more depth outside the United States, though the United States has maintained its early lead in most areas of theory and algorithm development. Researchers abroad are active in other currently popular areas, such as quantizer design techniques based on neural networks and signal decompositions based on fractals and wavelets, but, in most cases, either similar research is or has been going on in the United States, or the work has not led to useful improvements in compression performance. Because there is a high degree of international cooperation and interaction in this field, good ideas spread rapidly across borders (both ways) through international conferences, journals, and technical exchanges. Though there have been no fundamental data compression breakthroughs in the past five years--outside or inside the United State--there have been an enormous number of significant improvements in both places in the tradeoffs among fidelity, bit rate, and computational complexity.

  11. Risk assessment of metal vapor arcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Monika C. (Inventor); Leidecker, Henning W. (Inventor)

    2009-01-01

    A method for assessing metal vapor arcing risk for a component is provided. The method comprises acquiring a current variable value associated with an operation of the component; comparing the current variable value with a threshold value for the variable; evaluating compared variable data to determine the metal vapor arcing risk in the component; and generating a risk assessment status for the component.

  12. Code of safety for nuclear merchant ships

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1982-01-01

    The Code is in chapters, entitled: general (including general safety principles and principles of risk acceptance); design criteria and conditions; ship design, construction and equipment; nuclear steam supply system; machinery and electrical installations; radiation safety (including radiological protection design; protection of persons; dosimetry; radioactive waste management); operation (including emergency operation procedures); surveys. Appendices cover: sinking velocity calculations; seaway loads depending on service periods; safety assessment; limiting dose-equivalent rates for different areas and spaces; quality assurance programme; application of single failure criterion. Initial application of the Code is restricted to conventional types of ships propelled by nuclear propulsion plants with pressurized light water type reactors. (U.K.)

  13. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

    2009-01-01

    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  14. NASA Human System Risk Assessment Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francisco, D.; Romero, E.

    2016-01-01

    NASA utilizes an evidence based system to perform risk assessments for the human system for spaceflight missions. The center of this process is the multi-disciplinary Human System Risk Board (HSRB). The HSRB is chartered from the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) at NASA Headquarters. The HSRB reviews all human system risks via an established comprehensive risk and configuration management plan based on a project management approach. The HSRB facilitates the integration of human research (terrestrial and spaceflight), medical operations, occupational surveillance, systems engineering and many other disciplines in a comprehensive review of human system risks. The HSRB considers all factors that influence human risk. These factors include pre-mission considerations such as screening criteria, training, age, sex, and physiological condition. In mission factors such as available countermeasures, mission duration and location and post mission factors such as time to return to baseline (reconditioning), post mission health screening, and available treatments. All of the factors influence the total risk assessment for each human risk. The HSRB performed a comprehensive review of all potential inflight medical conditions and events and over the course of several reviews consolidated the number of human system risks to 30, where the greatest emphasis is placed for investing program dollars for risk mitigation. The HSRB considers all available evidence from human research and, medical operations and occupational surveillance in assessing the risks for appropriate mitigation and future work. All applicable DRMs (low earth orbit for 6 and 12 months, deep space for 30 days and 1 year, a lunar mission for 1 year, and a planetary mission for 3 years) are considered as human system risks are modified by the hazards associated with space flight such as microgravity, exposure to radiation, distance from the earth, isolation and a closed environment. Each risk has a summary

  15. Risk assessment research and technology assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Albach, H.; Schade, D.; Sinn, H.

    1991-01-01

    The concepts and approaches for technology assessment, the targets and scientific principles, as well as recognizable deficits and recommendations concerning purposeful strategies for the promotion of this research field require a dialog between those concerned. Conception, deficits, and the necessary measures for risk assessment research and technology assessment were discussed as well as ethical aspects. The problematic nature of using organisms altered through genetic engineering in the open land, traffic and transport, site restoration, nuclear energy, and isotope applications were subjects particularly dealt with. (DG) [de

  16. Application of FFTBM with signal mirroring to improve accuracy assessment of MELCOR code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saghafi, Mahdi; Ghofrani, Mohammad Bagher; D’Auria, Francesco

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • FFTBM-SM is an improved Fast Fourier Transform Base Method by signal mirroring. • FFTBM-SM has been applied to accuracy assessment of MELCOR code predictions. • The case studied was Station Black-Out accident in PSB-VVER integral test facility. • FFTBM-SM eliminates fluctuations of accuracy indices when signals sharply change. • Accuracy assessment is performed in a more realistic and consistent way by FFTBM-SM. - Abstract: This paper deals with the application of Fast Fourier Transform Base Method (FFTBM) with signal mirroring (FFTBM-SM) to assess accuracy of MELCOR code. This provides deeper insights into how the accuracy of MELCOR code in predictions of thermal-hydraulic parameters varies during transients. The case studied was modeling of Station Black-Out (SBO) accident in PSB-VVER integral test facility by MELCOR code. The accuracy of this thermal-hydraulic modeling was previously quantified using original FFTBM in a few number of time-intervals, based on phenomenological windows of SBO accident. Accuracy indices calculated by original FFTBM in a series of time-intervals unreasonably fluctuate when the investigated signals sharply increase or decrease. In the current study, accuracy of MELCOR code is quantified using FFTBM-SM in a series of increasing time-intervals, and the results are compared to those with original FFTBM. Also, differences between the accuracy indices of original FFTBM and FFTBM-SM are investigated and correction factors calculated to eliminate unphysical effects in original FFTBM. The main findings are: (1) replacing limited number of phenomena-based time-intervals by a series of increasing time-intervals provides deeper insights about accuracy variation of the MELCOR calculations, and (2) application of FFTBM-SM for accuracy evaluation of the MELCOR predictions, provides more reliable results than original FFTBM by eliminating the fluctuations of accuracy indices when experimental signals sharply increase or

  17. Application of FFTBM with signal mirroring to improve accuracy assessment of MELCOR code

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saghafi, Mahdi [Department of Energy Engineering, Sharif University of Technology, Azadi Avenue, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Ghofrani, Mohammad Bagher, E-mail: ghofrani@sharif.edu [Department of Energy Engineering, Sharif University of Technology, Azadi Avenue, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); D’Auria, Francesco [San Piero a Grado Nuclear Research Group (GRNSPG), University of Pisa, Via Livornese 1291, San Piero a Grado, Pisa (Italy)

    2016-11-15

    Highlights: • FFTBM-SM is an improved Fast Fourier Transform Base Method by signal mirroring. • FFTBM-SM has been applied to accuracy assessment of MELCOR code predictions. • The case studied was Station Black-Out accident in PSB-VVER integral test facility. • FFTBM-SM eliminates fluctuations of accuracy indices when signals sharply change. • Accuracy assessment is performed in a more realistic and consistent way by FFTBM-SM. - Abstract: This paper deals with the application of Fast Fourier Transform Base Method (FFTBM) with signal mirroring (FFTBM-SM) to assess accuracy of MELCOR code. This provides deeper insights into how the accuracy of MELCOR code in predictions of thermal-hydraulic parameters varies during transients. The case studied was modeling of Station Black-Out (SBO) accident in PSB-VVER integral test facility by MELCOR code. The accuracy of this thermal-hydraulic modeling was previously quantified using original FFTBM in a few number of time-intervals, based on phenomenological windows of SBO accident. Accuracy indices calculated by original FFTBM in a series of time-intervals unreasonably fluctuate when the investigated signals sharply increase or decrease. In the current study, accuracy of MELCOR code is quantified using FFTBM-SM in a series of increasing time-intervals, and the results are compared to those with original FFTBM. Also, differences between the accuracy indices of original FFTBM and FFTBM-SM are investigated and correction factors calculated to eliminate unphysical effects in original FFTBM. The main findings are: (1) replacing limited number of phenomena-based time-intervals by a series of increasing time-intervals provides deeper insights about accuracy variation of the MELCOR calculations, and (2) application of FFTBM-SM for accuracy evaluation of the MELCOR predictions, provides more reliable results than original FFTBM by eliminating the fluctuations of accuracy indices when experimental signals sharply increase or

  18. Assessment of the IVA3 code for multifield flow simulation. Formal report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stewart, H.B.

    1995-07-01

    This report presents an assessment of the IVA3 computer code for multifield flow simulation, as applied to the premixing phase of a hypothetical steam explosion in a water-cooled power reactor. The first section of this report reviews the derivation of the basic partial differential equations of multifield modeling, with reference to standard practices in the multiphase flow literature. Basic underlying assumptions and approximations are highlighted, and comparison is made between IVA3 and other codes in current use. Although Kolev`s derivation of these equations is outside the mainstream of the multiphase literature, the basic partial differential equations are in fact nearly equivalent to those in other codes. In the second section, the assumptions and approximations required to pass from generic differential equations to a specific working form are detailed. Some modest improvements to the IVA3 model are suggested. In Section 3, the finite difference approximations to the differential equations are described. The discretization strategy is discussed with reference to numerical stability, accuracy, and the role of various physical phenomena - material convection, sonic propagation, viscous stress, and interfacial exchanges - in the choice of discrete approximations. There is also cause for concern about the approximations of time evolution in some heat transfer terms, which might be adversely affecting numerical accuracy. The fourth section documents the numerical solution method used in IVA3. An explanation for erratic behavior sometimes observed in the first outer iteration is suggested, along with possible remedies. Finally, six recommendations for future assessment and improvement of the IVA3 model and code are made.

  19. Observations concerning the COMPBRN III fire growth code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nicolette, V.F.; Nowlen, S.P.; Lambright, J.A.

    1989-01-01

    Nuclear power plant fire probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) usually involve application of a fire growth model to calculate fire growth and the time required to damage critical safety equipment. Attempts to use the fire growth model COMPBRN III resulted in the observation of problems and nonphysical behavior in the code. In this paper the causes of these problems and nonphysical behavior are identified and possible modifications suggested. Incorporation of these modifications into COMPBRN III results in some significant differences in the calculated fire damage times, as well as making the code more physically realistic. 12 refs., 6 figs

  20. Assessment of Interpersonal Risk (AIR) in Adults with Learning Disabilities and Challenging Behaviour--Piloting a New Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Martin; McCue, Michael

    2013-01-01

    A new risk assessment tool, "Assessment of Interpersonal Risk" (AIR), was piloted and evaluated to measure risk factors and compatibility between individuals living in an assessment and treatment unit in one NHS area. The adults with learning disabilities in this unit had severe and enduring mental health problems and/or behaviour that is severely…

  1. Sensitivity assessment of fuel performance codes for LOCA accident scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abe, Alfredo; Gomes, Daniel; Silva, Antonio Teixeira e; Muniz, Rafael O.R. [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil); Giovedi, Claudia; Martins, Marcelo, E-mail: ayabe@ipen.br, E-mail: claudia.giovedi@labrisco.usp.br [Universidade de Sao Paulo (LABRISCO/USP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil). Lab. de Análise, Avaliação e Gerenciamento de Risco

    2017-07-01

    FRAPCON code predicts fuel rod performance in LWR (Light Water Reactor) by modeling fuel responses under normal operating conditions and anticipated operational occurrences; FRAPTRAN code is applied for fuel transient under fast transient and accident conditions. The codes are well known and applied for different purposes and one of the use is to address sensitivity analysis considering fuel design parameters associated to fabrication, moreover can address the effect of physical models bias. The objective of this work was to perform an assessment of fuel manufacturing parameters tolerances and fuel models bias using FRAPCON and FRAPTRAN codes for Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA) scenario. The preliminary analysis considered direct approach taken into account most relevant manufacturing tolerances (lower and upper bounds) related to design parameters and physical models bias without considering their statistical distribution. The simulations were carried out using the data available in the open literature related to the series of LOCA experiment performed at the Halden reactor (specifically IFA-650.5). The manufacturing tolerances associated to design parameters considered in this paper were: enrichment, cladding thickness, pellet diameter, pellet density, and filling gas pressure. The physical models considered were: fuel thermal expansion, fission gas release, fuel swelling, irradiation creep, cladding thermal expansion, cladding corrosion, and cladding hydrogen pickup. The results obtained from sensitivity analysis addressed the impact of manufacturing tolerances and physical models in the fuel cladding burst time observed for the IFA-650.5 experiment. (author)

  2. Sensitivity assessment of fuel performance codes for LOCA accident scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abe, Alfredo; Gomes, Daniel; Silva, Antonio Teixeira e; Muniz, Rafael O.R.; Giovedi, Claudia; Martins, Marcelo

    2017-01-01

    FRAPCON code predicts fuel rod performance in LWR (Light Water Reactor) by modeling fuel responses under normal operating conditions and anticipated operational occurrences; FRAPTRAN code is applied for fuel transient under fast transient and accident conditions. The codes are well known and applied for different purposes and one of the use is to address sensitivity analysis considering fuel design parameters associated to fabrication, moreover can address the effect of physical models bias. The objective of this work was to perform an assessment of fuel manufacturing parameters tolerances and fuel models bias using FRAPCON and FRAPTRAN codes for Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA) scenario. The preliminary analysis considered direct approach taken into account most relevant manufacturing tolerances (lower and upper bounds) related to design parameters and physical models bias without considering their statistical distribution. The simulations were carried out using the data available in the open literature related to the series of LOCA experiment performed at the Halden reactor (specifically IFA-650.5). The manufacturing tolerances associated to design parameters considered in this paper were: enrichment, cladding thickness, pellet diameter, pellet density, and filling gas pressure. The physical models considered were: fuel thermal expansion, fission gas release, fuel swelling, irradiation creep, cladding thermal expansion, cladding corrosion, and cladding hydrogen pickup. The results obtained from sensitivity analysis addressed the impact of manufacturing tolerances and physical models in the fuel cladding burst time observed for the IFA-650.5 experiment. (author)

  3. Development of integrated computer code for analysis of risk reduction strategy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Dong Ha; Kim, See Darl; Kim, Hee Dong

    2002-05-01

    The development of the MIDAS/TH integrated severe accident code was performed in three main areas: 1) addition of new models derived from the national experimental programs and models for APR-1400 Korea next generation reactor, 2) improvement of the existing models using the recently available results, and 3) code restructuring for user friendliness. The unique MIDAS/TH models include: 1) a kinetics module for core power calculation during ATWS, 2) a gap cooling module between the molten corium pool and the reactor vessel wall, 3) a penetration tube failure module, 4) a PAR analysis module, and 5) a look-up table for the pressure and dynamic load during steam explosion. The improved models include: 1) a debris dispersal module considering the cavity geometry during DCH, 2) hydrogen burn and deflagration-to-detonation transition criteria, 3) a peak pressure estimation module for hydrogen detonation, and 4) the heat transfer module between the molten corium pool and the overlying water. The sparger and the ex-vessel heat transfer module were assessed. To enhance user friendliness, code restructuring was performed. In addition, a sample of severe accident analysis results was organized under the preliminary database structure

  4. A multivariate fall risk assessment model for VHA nursing homes using the minimum data set.

    Science.gov (United States)

    French, Dustin D; Werner, Dennis C; Campbell, Robert R; Powell-Cope, Gail M; Nelson, Audrey L; Rubenstein, Laurence Z; Bulat, Tatjana; Spehar, Andrea M

    2007-02-01

    The purpose of this study was to develop a multivariate fall risk assessment model beyond the current fall Resident Assessment Protocol (RAP) triggers for nursing home residents using the Minimum Data Set (MDS). Retrospective, clustered secondary data analysis. National Veterans Health Administration (VHA) long-term care nursing homes (N = 136). The study population consisted of 6577 national VHA nursing home residents who had an annual assessment during FY 2005, identified from the MDS, as well as an earlier annual or admission assessment within a 1-year look-back period. A dichotomous multivariate model of nursing home residents coded with a fall on selected fall risk characteristics from the MDS, estimated with general estimation equations (GEE). There were 17 170 assessments corresponding to 6577 long-term care nursing home residents. The increased odds ratio (OR) of being classified as a faller relative to the omitted "dependent" category of activities of daily living (ADL) ranged from OR = 1.35 for "limited" ADL category up to OR = 1.57 for "extensive-2" ADL (P canes, walkers, or crutches, or the use of wheelchairs increases the odds of being a faller (OR = 1.17, P falls in long-term care settings. The model incorporated an ADL index and adjusted for case mix by including only long-term care nursing home residents. The study offers clinicians practical estimates by combining multiple univariate MDS elements in an empirically based, multivariate fall risk assessment model.

  5. Assessment of computer codes for VVER-440/213-type nuclear power plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Szabados, L.; Ezsol, Gy.; Perneczky [Atomic Energy Research Institute, Budapest (Hungary)

    1995-09-01

    Nuclear power plant of VVER-440/213 designed by the former USSR have a number of special features. As a consequence of these features the transient behaviour of such a reactor system should be different from the PWR system behaviour. To study the transient behaviour of the Hungarian Paks Nuclear Power Plant of VVER-440/213-type both analytical and experimental activities have been performed. The experimental basis of the research in the PMK-2 integral-type test facility , which is a scaled down model of the plant. Experiments performed on this facility have been used to assess thermal-hydraulic system codes. Four tests were selected for {open_quotes}Standard Problem Exercises{close_quotes} of the International Atomic Energy Agency. Results of the 4th Exercise, of high international interest, are presented in the paper, focusing on the essential findings of the assessment of computer codes.

  6. Significance of earthquake risk in nuclear power plant probabilistic risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sues, R.H.; Amico, P.J.; Campbell, R.D.

    1990-01-01

    During the last eight years, approximately 25 utility-sponsored probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) have been conducted for US nuclear reactors. Of these, ten have been published, seven of which have included complete seismic risk assessment. The results of the seven published PRAs are reviewed here in order to ascertain the significance of the risk due to earthquake initiating events. While PRA methodology has been in a state of development over the past seven years, and the results are subject to interpretation (as discussed in the paper), from the review conducted it is clear that earthquake-induced initiating events are important risk contributors. It is concluded that earthquake initiating events should not be dismissed, a priori, in any nuclear plant risk assessment. (orig.)

  7. Chemical Risk Assessment: Traditional vs Public Health ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. When done efficiently and properly, chemical risk assessment enables risk management actions that minimize the incidence and impacts of environmentally-induced diseases related to chemical exposure. However, traditional chemical risk assessment is faced with multiple challenges with respect to predicting and preventing disease in human populations, and epidemiological studies increasingly report observations of adverse health effects at exposure levels predicted from animal studies to be safe for humans. This discordance reinforces concerns about the adequacy of contemporary risk assessment practices (Birnbaum, Burke, & Jones, 2016) for protecting public health. It is becoming clear that to protect public health more effectively, future risk assessments will need to use the full range of available data, draw on innovative methods to integrate diverse data streams, and consider health endpoints that also reflect the range of subtle effects and morbidities observed in human populations. Given these factors, there is a need to reframe chemical risk assessment to be more clearly aligned with the public health goal of minimizing environmental exposures associated with disease. Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. Chemical risk assessments

  8. Risk-assessment methodology for fast breeder reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ott, K.O.

    1976-04-01

    The methods applied or proposed for risk assessment of nuclear reactors are reviewed, particularly with respect to their applicability for risk assessment of future commercial fast breeder reactors. All methods are based on the calculation of accident consequences for relatively few accident scenarios. The role and general impact of uncertainties in fast-reactor accident analysis are discussed. The discussion shows the need for improvement of the methodology. A generalized and improved risk-assessment methodology is outlined and proposed (accident-spectra-progression approach). The generalization consists primarily of an explicit treatment of uncertainties throughout the accident progression. The results of this method are obtained in form of consequence distributions. The width and shape of the distributions depend in part on the superposition of the uncertainties. The first moment of the consequence distribution gives an improved prediction of the ''average'' consequence. The higher-consequence moments can be used for consideration of risk aversion. The assessment of the risk of one or a certain number of nuclear reactors can only provide an ''isolated'' risk assessment. The general problem of safety risk assessment and its relation to public acceptance of certain modes of power production is a much broader problem area, which is also discussed

  9. The evolution of violence risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monahan, John; Skeem, Jennifer L

    2014-10-01

    Many instruments have been published in recent years to improve the ability of mental health clinicians to estimate the likelihood that an individual will behave violently toward others. Increasingly, these instruments are being applied in response to laws that require specialized risk assessments. In this review, we present a framework that goes beyond the "clinical" and "actuarial" dichotomy to describe a continuum of structured approaches to risk assessment. Despite differences among them, there is little evidence that one instrument predicts violence better than another. We believe that these group-based instruments are useful for assessing an individual's risk, and that the instrument should be chosen based on the purpose of the assessment.

  10. Environmental Comparative Risk Assessment: A Case Study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ali, M.M.

    2007-01-01

    Health and environmental impacts associated with energy production and industrial activities as well as food production and agricultural activities have had great concern in the last decades. Early activities emerged in late 80s of the last century through an Inter- Agency project (lAEA, UNDY, WHO, ... ) on the comparative risk assessment from energy systems and industrial complexes. A work-shop on Risk Assessment and Management in large industrial areas was held in Alexandria Egypt on 20-33 Det 1993, sponsored by IAEA. Several conferences, experts work groups and workshops were held there of Recent trends in determining risks are: 1. Use of probabilistic risk assessment approach to identify hazardous activities and accident scenario. 2. development of data base on failure probabilities and appropriate physical models. 3. Development of related directives and regulations and criteria Comparative risk assessment case study as a tool for comparing risk is emphasized Criteria of exposure to human and ecological risks are addressed

  11. Development of dose assessment code for release of tritium during normal operation of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duran, J.; Malatova, I.

    2009-01-01

    A computer code PTM H TO has been developed to assess tritium doses to the general public. The code enables to simulate the behavior of tritium in the environment released into the atmosphere under normal operation of nuclear power plants. Code can calculate the doses for the three chemical and physical forms: tritium gas (HT), tritiated water vapor and water drops (HTO). The models in this code consist of the tritium transfer model including oxidation of HT to HTO and reemission of HTO from soil to the atmosphere, and the dose calculation model

  12. Risk assessment approach for Rokkasho reprocessing plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ootou, Y.; Tamauchi, Y.; Hayashi, Y.; Takebe, K.; Miyata, T.

    2006-01-01

    Full text: It is desirable that the operation and maintenance of Rokkasho Reprocessing Plant (RRP) be established and conducted with maximum effectiveness and efficiency, making the best use of risk information to help the plant achieve further enhanced safety. Risk assessment is applied for RRP, and upgraded risk information is established. In the basic design phase, the potential incidents and accidents that might occur in the plant were identified systematically and exhaustively adopting the HAZOP method. After screening the potential for occurrence, the design basis accidents (DBAs) were identified and it was confirmed that the plant would not put the general public at risk of significant radiation exposure in the case of such accidents, even when assuming the single failure of dynamic apparatus in the prevention and mitigation systems. To support the deterministic safety assessment mentioned above, the risk assessment was conducted during the basic design phase. Of the DBAs and out-of-design basis accidents excluded from DBAs because of extremely rare occurrence possibilities, the risk assessment was conducted for such accidents which might cause relatively high consequence for the general public. The risk assessment was conducted using the PSA method generally used for nuclear power plants. After that, a review of the occurrence frequency assessment for some of the accidents was made, taking into account information relating to detailed design and operation procedures. Typical examples are a loss of the hydrogen scavenging function in the plutonium solution tank and a loss of cooling capability in the high-active liquid waste storage tank. The occurrence frequency for a loss of the hydrogen scavenging function was less than 10 -5 /year. The occurrence frequency for a loss of cooling capability was less than 10 -7 /year. In addition, an importance assessment (FV index, Risk Achievement Worth) was conducted, such as a contribution to the occurrence frequency

  13. The Risk Assessment at the Workplace of Assembly Operation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marek Burda

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Risk Assessment Process by FMEA method involve hazard identification, risk assessment and risk control processes and their input is fundamental to a successful EH&S system. This Risk assessment tool follows the general process and requirements of the Health and Safety Risk Assessment Procedure.

  14. Study on the code system for the off-site consequences assessment of severe nuclear accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Sora; Mn, Byung Il; Park, Ki Hyun; Yang, Byung Mo; Suh, Kyung Suk [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-12-15

    The importance of severe nuclear accidents and probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) were brought to international attention with the occurrence of severe nuclear accidents caused by the extreme natural disaster at Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in Japan. In Korea, studies on level 3 PSA had made little progress until recently. The code systems of level 3 PSA, MACCS2 (MELCORE Accident Consequence Code System 2, US), COSYMA (COde SYstem from MAria, EU) and OSCAAR (Off-Site Consequence Analysis code for Atmospheric Releases in reactor accidents, JAPAN), were reviewed in this study, and the disadvantages and limitations of MACCS2 were also analyzed. Experts from Korea and abroad pointed out that the limitations of MACCS2 include the following: MACCS2 cannot simulate multi-unit accidents/release from spent fuel pools, and its atmospheric dispersion is based on a simple Gaussian plume model. Some of these limitations have been improved in the updated versions of MACCS2. The absence of a marine and aquatic dispersion model and the limited simulating range of food-chain and economic models are also important aspects that need to be improved. This paper is expected to be utilized as basic research material for developing a Korean code system for assessing off-site consequences of severe nuclear accidents.

  15. Study on the code system for the off-site consequences assessment of severe nuclear accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Sora; Mn, Byung Il; Park, Ki Hyun; Yang, Byung Mo; Suh, Kyung Suk

    2016-01-01

    The importance of severe nuclear accidents and probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) were brought to international attention with the occurrence of severe nuclear accidents caused by the extreme natural disaster at Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in Japan. In Korea, studies on level 3 PSA had made little progress until recently. The code systems of level 3 PSA, MACCS2 (MELCORE Accident Consequence Code System 2, US), COSYMA (COde SYstem from MAria, EU) and OSCAAR (Off-Site Consequence Analysis code for Atmospheric Releases in reactor accidents, JAPAN), were reviewed in this study, and the disadvantages and limitations of MACCS2 were also analyzed. Experts from Korea and abroad pointed out that the limitations of MACCS2 include the following: MACCS2 cannot simulate multi-unit accidents/release from spent fuel pools, and its atmospheric dispersion is based on a simple Gaussian plume model. Some of these limitations have been improved in the updated versions of MACCS2. The absence of a marine and aquatic dispersion model and the limited simulating range of food-chain and economic models are also important aspects that need to be improved. This paper is expected to be utilized as basic research material for developing a Korean code system for assessing off-site consequences of severe nuclear accidents

  16. User Instructions for the Systems Assessment Capability, Rev. 0, Computer Codes Volume 2: Impact Modules

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eslinger, Paul W.; Arimescu, Carmen; Kanyid, Beverly A.; Miley, Terri B.

    2001-01-01

    One activity of the Department of Energy?s Groundwater/Vadose Zone Integration Project is an assessment of cumulative impacts from Hanford Site wastes on the subsurface environment and the Columbia River. Through the application of a system assessment capability (SAC), decisions for each cleanup and disposal action will be able to take into account the composite effect of other cleanup and disposal actions. The SAC has developed a suite of computer programs to simulate the migration of contaminants (analytes) present on the Hanford Site and to assess the potential impacts of the analytes, including dose to humans, socio-cultural impacts, economic impacts, and ecological impacts. The general approach to handling uncertainty in the SAC computer codes is a Monte Carlo approach. Conceptually, one generates a value for every stochastic parameter in the code (the entire sequence of modules from inventory through transport and impacts) and then executes the simulation, obtaining an output value, or result. This document provides user instructions for the SAC codes that generate human, ecological, economic, and cultural impacts

  17. Dose and risk assessment of norm Contaminated waste released from trench disposal facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abdel Geleel, M.; Ramadan, A.B.; Tawfik, A.A.

    2005-01-01

    Oil and gas extraction and processing operations accumulate naturally occurring radioactive material (NORM) at concentrations above normal in by-product waste streams. The petroleum industry adopted methods for managing of NORM that are more restrictive than past practices and are likely to provide greater isolation of the radioactivity. Trench was used as a disposal facility for NORM contaminated wastes at one site of the petroleum industry in Egypt. The aim of this work is to calculate the risk and dose assessment received from trench disposal facility directly and after closure (1000 year). RESRAD computer code was used. The results indicated that the total effective dose (TED) received after direct closure of trench disposal facility was 7.7E-4 mSv/y while after 1000 years, it will he 3.4E-4. The health cancer risk after direct closure was 3.3E-8 while after 1000 years post closure it was 6E-8. Results of this assessment will help examine policy issues concerning different options and regulation of NORM contaminated waste generated by petroleum industry

  18. Eu-NORSEWInD - Assessment of Viability of Open Source CFD Code for the Wind Industry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stickland, Matt; Scanlon, Tom; Fabre, Sylvie

    2009-01-01

    Part of the overall NORSEWInD project is the use of LiDAR remote sensing (RS) systems mounted on offshore platforms to measure wind velocity profiles at a number of locations offshore. The data acquired from the offshore RS measurements will be fed into a large and novel wind speed dataset suitab...... between the results of simulations created by the commercial code FLUENT and the open source code OpenFOAM. An assessment of the ease with which the open source code can be used is also included....

  19. Research into specific risk assessment in project financing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivana Bestvina Bukvić

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available An assessment of investment justification in terms of risk enables the decision maker (investor to select, among available alternatives, the one with the most favourable correlation between the expected profit and assumed risk. At the micro level, the uncertainty of business success is extremely high in production activities, which is an additional incentive for taking a comprehensive approach to the issue of investment decision-making and the development of risk assessment techniques applicable in this particular segment of industry. Given the complexity of the manufacturing process, the length of the production cycle, market conditions, and entity-specific risks (which are difficult to measure, projects in manufacturing industry require a detailed and comprehensive assessment of specific risk factors and their cost-effectiveness. Ne - vertheless, since specific risks can be diversified, investment proposal assessments in practice usually do not cover their quantification and analysis. However, the majority of business entities do not have enough active projects in various industries to be able to fully diversify their business and thus minimize the level of specific risks. The impact of specific factors becomes one of the most important elements for business success. This paper analyses how far risk assessment methods regarding specific risks are used in practice. Furthermore, it analyses the significance of specific risks for total investment risk. This study gives new insi - ghts into the significance of specific risks to the overall investment assessment and the need for permanent development of traditionally used investment assessment models.

  20. Risk assessment of complex accident scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kluegel, Jens-Uwe

    2012-01-01

    The use of methods of risk assessment in accidents in nuclear plants is based on an old tradition. The first consistent systematic study is considered to be the Rasmussen Study of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NRC, WASH-1400. Above and beyond the realm of nuclear technology, there is an extensive range of accident, risk and reliability research into technical-administrative systems. In the past, it has been this area of research which has led to the development of concepts of safety precautions of the type also introduced into nuclear technology (barrier concept, defense in depth, single-failure criterion), where they are now taken for granted as trivial concepts. Also for risk analysis, nuclear technology made use of methods (such as event and fault tree analyses) whose origins were outside the nuclear field. One area in which the use of traditional methods of probabilistic safety analysis is encountering practical problems is risk assessment of complex accident scenarios in nuclear technology. A definition is offered of the term 'complex accident scenarios' in nuclear technology. A number of problems are addressed which arise in the use of traditional PSA procedures in risk assessment of complex accident scenarios. Cases of complex accident scenarios are presented to demonstrate methods of risk assessment which allow robust results to be obtained even when traditional techniques of risk analysis are maintained as a matter of principle. These methods are based on the use of conditional risk metrics. (orig.)

  1. Aquatic Macrophyte Risk Assessment for Pesticides

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maltby, L.; Arnold, D.; Arts, G.H.P.; Davies, J.; Heimbach, F.; Pickl, C.; Poulsen, V.

    2009-01-01

    Given the essential role that primary producers play in aquatic ecosystems, it is imperative that the potential risk of pesticides to the structure and functioning of aquatic plants is adequately assessed. This book discusses the assessment of the risk of pesticides with herbicidal activity to

  2. Risk assessment and risk transfer from an insurerś point of view

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebner, G.

    2009-04-01

    Risk, a word that causes a lot of associations in human brains. Many of us don't like risks. Since hundreds of years insurance is the most common way to get rid of the financial consequences when risks convert to damages. This article deals with commercial risks and the possibilities of risk transfer, an important task within the field of risk management. For commercial entities it is very important to transfer risks, threatening the competitiveness or even worse the existence of a company. At the beginning of insurance it was more the less a bet between merchants and rich people. Later on mutual societies were taking place. Today we see a complex insurance industry with insurers, reinsurers, self insuring possibilities via captives and much more. This complex system, with all the different ways to deal with risk transfer requires a professional risk assessment! Risk assessment is based on knowledge about the threatened assets, the likelihood that they will be damaged, the threats and the possibilities to protect these assets. Assets may be tangible or intangible. Assessing risks is not a precise calculation that delivers a result without any doubt. But insurers and insured need a basis to fix a premium, both of them can agree. This contribution will present a system to assess risks and to find the right risk-transfer-premiums.

  3. Risk assessment and management in IOR projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goodyear, S.G.; Gregory, A.T.

    1994-01-01

    The application of IOR techniques is one of the investment opportunities open to Exploration and Production companies. A project will only go forward if the perceived balance between the rewards and the risks is acceptable. IOR projects may be ruled out because they are considered to involve significantly higher risks than conventional developments. Therefore, some means of evaluating the actual level of risk may be required if the full economic benefits from IOR techniques are to be realized. Risk assessment is a key element in safety cases, where a well-established methodology for quantifying risk exists. This paper discusses the extension of these methods to IOR project risk assessment. Combining reservoir and IOR technique uncertainties with their impact on project performance allows project risk to be better quantified. The results of the risk assessment are presented in terms of a risk-reward diagram that plots the probability surface for possible project outcomes as a function of NPV (reward) and exposure (risk)

  4. Risk assessment and nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bodansky, D.

    1982-01-01

    The range of risk perceptions involving nuclear power is so great that there is little hope of bridging extreme positions, but a consensus based upon reasoned discussion among uncommitted people could determine a sensible path. Our concerns over the uncertainties of risk assessment have made it increasingly difficult to make responsible decisions fast enough to deal with modern needs. The result is an immobility in energy matters that can point to a 2% reduction in oil use as its only triumph. The risk of nuclear war as a result of military action over energy issues suggests to some that the solution is to abolish nuclear power (however impractical) and to others that a rapid spread of nuclear power will eliminate energy as an incentive for war. If nuclear war is the major risk to consider, risk assessments need to include the risks of war, as well as those of carbon dioxide buildup and socio-economic disruptions, all of which loom larger than the risks of nuclear-plant accidents. Energy choices should be aimed at diminishing these major risks, even if they include the use of nuclear power. 26 references

  5. Risk assessment handbook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farmer, F.G.; Jones, J.L.; Hunt, R.N.; Roush, M.L.; Wierman, T.E.

    1990-09-01

    The Probabilistic Risk Assessment Unit at EG ampersand G Idaho has developed this handbook to provide guidance to a facility manager exploring the potential benefit to be gained by performance of a risk assessment properly scoped to meet local needs. This document is designed to help the manager control the resources expended commensurate with the risks being managed and to assure that the products can be used programmatically to support future needs in order to derive maximum beneflt from the resources expended. We present a logical and functional mapping scheme between several discrete phases of project definition to ensure that a potential customer, working with an analyst, is able to define the areas of interest and that appropriate methods are employed in the analysis. In addition the handbook is written to provide a high-level perspective for the analyst. Previously, the needed information was either scattered or existed only in the minds of experienced analysts. By compiling this information and exploring the breadth of knowledge which exists within the members of the PRA Unit, the functional relationships between the customers' needs and the product have been established

  6. International assessment of application of the Code of Conduct on the Safety of Research Reactors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shokr, A.M. [Atomic Energy Authority, Abouzabal (Egypt). Egypt Second Research Reactor

    2015-11-15

    The self-assessments performed by thirty-eight countries on application of the Code of Conduct on the Safety of Research Reactors were analyzed and discussed. The results of this analysis were used to identify areas of satisfactory application of the Code and area needing improvements, and therefore require more attention worldwide. The results showed improvement in application of the Code provisions; notably in aging management, regulatory supervision, and consideration of human factors. However, there is a continuing need for further improvement in these areas, as well as in operational radiation protection, emergency preparedness and decommissioning planning. Additionally, increased attention needs to be given to periodic safety reviews, evaluation of site-specific hazards, and assessment of extreme external events. The results showed consistency with the feedback from other sources of information on generic safety issues for research reactors.

  7. International assessment of application of the Code of Conduct on the Safety of Research Reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shokr, A.M.

    2015-01-01

    The self-assessments performed by thirty-eight countries on application of the Code of Conduct on the Safety of Research Reactors were analyzed and discussed. The results of this analysis were used to identify areas of satisfactory application of the Code and area needing improvements, and therefore require more attention worldwide. The results showed improvement in application of the Code provisions; notably in aging management, regulatory supervision, and consideration of human factors. However, there is a continuing need for further improvement in these areas, as well as in operational radiation protection, emergency preparedness and decommissioning planning. Additionally, increased attention needs to be given to periodic safety reviews, evaluation of site-specific hazards, and assessment of extreme external events. The results showed consistency with the feedback from other sources of information on generic safety issues for research reactors.

  8. Risk Assessment of Genetically Modified Microorganisms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jacobsen, B. L.; Wilcks, Andrea

    2001-01-01

    the industry, national administration and research institutions were gathered to discuss which elements should be considered in a risk assessment of genetically modified microorganisms used as food or food ingredients. The existing EU and national regulations were presented, together with the experiences......The rapid development of recombinant DNA techniques for food organisms urges for an ongoing discussion on the risk assessment of both new as traditional use of microorganisms in food production. This report, supported by the Nordic Council of Ministers, is the result of a workshop where people from...... with risk assessment of these organisms in each Nordic country....

  9. Subjective risk assessment for planning conservation projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Game, Edward T; Fitzsimons, James A; Lipsett-Moore, Geoff; McDonald-Madden, Eve

    2013-01-01

    Conservation projects occur under many types of uncertainty. Where this uncertainty can affect achievement of a project’s objectives, there is risk. Understanding risks to project success should influence a range of strategic and tactical decisions in conservation, and yet, formal risk assessment rarely features in the guidance or practice of conservation planning. We describe how subjective risk analysis tools can be framed to facilitate the rapid identification and assessment of risks to conservation projects, and how this information should influence conservation planning. Our approach is illustrated with an assessment of risks to conservation success as part of a conservation plan for the work of The Nature Conservancy in northern Australia. Risks can be both internal and external to a project, and occur across environmental, social, economic and political systems. Based on the relative importance of a risk and the level of certainty in its assessment we propose a series of appropriate, project level responses including research, monitoring, and active amelioration. Explicit identification, prioritization, and where possible, management of risks are important elements of using conservation resources in an informed and accountable manner. (letter)

  10. INCORPORATING NONCHEMICAL STRESSORS INTO CUMMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENTS

    Science.gov (United States)

    The risk assessment paradigm has begun to shift from assessing single chemicals using "reasonable worst case" assumptions for individuals to considering multiple chemicals and community-based models. Inherent in community-based risk assessment is examination of all stressors a...

  11. A risk communication case study: the Nevada risk assessment/management program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hechanova, A.E.

    2000-01-01

    The Nevada Risk Assessment/Management Program (NRAMP) is part of a national effort by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to develop new sources of information and approaches to risk assessment, risk management, risk communication and public outreach as these objectives relate to the ecological and human health effects of radioactive and hazardous material management and site remediation activities. This paper reviews the innovation behind the NRAMP project and presents a synopsis of the NRAMP effort which occurred from 1995 to 2000. The primary goals of the DOE in awarding the cooperative agreement establishing NRAMP were to (I) use a risk-based approach to evaluate the consequences of alternative actions in DOE's Environmental Remediation Programs at sites in Nevada and (2) use a neutral and credible institution outside the DOE to perform the risk assessments and contribute to public education about environmental management issues at the Nevada Test Site. (author)

  12. Approaches to risk assessment in food allergy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Charlotte Bernhard; Hattersley, S.; Buck, J.

    2009-01-01

    modelling is considered to be the most promising approach for use in population risk assessment (which is a particular focus for risk managers). For all approaches, further improvement of input data is desirable, particularly data on consumption patterns/food choices in food allergic consumers, data...... models. The workshop concluded that all the three approaches to safety and risk assessment of allergenic foods should continue to be considered. A particular strength of the MoE and probabilistic approaches is that they do not rely on low-dose extrapolations with its inherent issues. Probabilistic......A workshop was organised to investigate whether risk assessment strategies and methodologies used in classical/conventional toxicology may be used for risk assessment of allergenic foods. to discuss the advantages and limitations of different approaches and to determine the research needed to move...

  13. Hanford waste vitrification systems risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, W.C.; Hamilton, D.W.; Holton, L.K.; Bailey, J.W.

    1991-09-01

    A systematic Risk Assessment was performed to identify the technical, regulatory, and programmatic uncertainties and to quantify the risks to the Hanford Site double-shell tank waste vitrification program baseline (as defined in December 1990). Mitigating strategies to reduce the overall program risk were proposed. All major program elements were evaluated, including double-shell tank waste characterization, Tank Farms, retrieval, pretreatment, vitrification, and grouting. Computer-based techniques were used to quantify risks to proceeding with construction of the Hanford Waste Vitrification Plant on the present baseline schedule. Risks to the potential vitrification of single-shell tank wastes and cesium and strontium capsules were also assessed. 62 refs., 38 figs., 26 tabs

  14. Analysis of existing risk assessments, and list of suggestions

    CERN Document Server

    Heimsch, Laura

    2016-01-01

    The scope of this project was to analyse risk assessments made at CERN and extracting some crucial information about the different methodologies used, profiles of people who make the risk assessments, and gathering information of whether the risk matrix was used and if the acceptable level of risk was defined. Second step of the project was to trigger discussion inside HSE about risk assessment by suggesting a risk matrix and a risk assessment template.

  15. Risk monitor-a tool for computer aided risk assessment for NPPs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vinod, Gopika; Saraf, R.K.; Babar, A.K.; Kushwaha, H.S.; Hadap, Nikhil

    2001-01-01

    Considerable changes occur in components status and system design and subsequent operation due to changes in plant configuration and their operating procedures. These changes are organised because some components are randomly down and other can be planned for test, maintenance and repair. This results in a fluctuation of risk level over operating time, which is termed as risk profile. Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) is an analytical technique for assessing the risk by integrating diverse aspects of design and operation of a Nuclear Power Plant. Risk can be defined as the product of the probability of an accident and the consequences from that accident. Reactor Safety Division of BARC has developed PC based tool, which can assess the risk profile. This package can be used to optimise the operation in Nuclear Power Plants with respect to a minimum risk level over the operating time, and is termed as Risk Monitor. Risk Monitor is user friendly and can re-evaluate core damage frequency for changes in component status, test interval, initiating event frequency etc. Plant restoration advice, when the plant is in high risk configuration, current status of all plant equipment, and equipment prioritization are also provided by the package. (author)

  16. Site remediation guided by risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McBean, E.A.; Gowing, A.; Pieczonka, G.

    2002-01-01

    'Full text:' Risk assessment (RA) provides an effective tool for identifying hazards with respect to human health and ecological receptors, hazards that arise from contaminants in the environment. Risk assessment relies upon: hazard identification/problem formulation; toxicity assessment; exposure assessment; and risk characterization. Hence, risk assessment provides an effective guide for site remediation through the identification of the associated risks arising from pre- and potential post-remediation activities. As a demonstration of this decision-making process, a site-specific risk assessment (SSRA) was performed on a chemical producing facility. Historical waste practices during the production of DDT compounds resulted in impacted site soils and sediment and soils of the creek passing through the facility. The purpose of the SSRA was to derive site-specific cleanup values for the impacted on-site soils, creek sediments, and embankment soils, incorporating human and ecological receptors associated with the environmental media. The human exposure pathways considered were dermal contact, incidental ingestion, and inhalation of the various soils. The potential human receptors were industrial workers, construction workers, trespassers, and off-site residents. Ingestion of fish from the creek by residents was also evaluated in the human health risk assessment (HHRA). Food web analyses were used to evaluate the impact of exposure to chemical compounds in aquatic sediments and related soils by ecological receptors such as the great blue heron, raccoon, and mink. The SSRA involved modelling the daily chemical intake by receptors and the transfer of chemicals to identified secondary media (e.g., ambient air or animal tissues) that are also potential exposure media. These models, while using the site-specific chemical data in the source media, possess uncertainties associated with default parameters that are only approximations and not site-specific (e.g., soil

  17. Technical basis for the extension of ASME Code Case N-494 for assessment of austenitic piping

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bloom, J.M.

    1995-01-01

    In 1990, the ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code for Nuclear Components approved Code Case N-494 as an alternative procedure for evaluating laws in Light Water Reactor alterative procedure for evaluating flaws in Light Water Reactor (LWR) ferritic piping. The approach is an alternative to Appendix H of the ASME Code and alloys the user to remove some unnecessary conservatism in the existing procedure by allowing the use of pipe specific material properties. The Code Case is an implementation of the methodology of the Deformation Plasticity Failure Assessment diagram (DPFAD). The key ingredient in the application of DPFAD is that the material stress-strain curve must be in the format of a simple power law hardening stress-strain curve such as the Ramberg-Osgood (R-O) model. Ferritic materials can be accurately fit by the R-O model and, therefore, it was natural to use the DPFAD methodology for the assessment of LWR ferritic piping. An extension of Code Case N-494 to austenitic piping required a modification of the existing DPFAD methodology. The Code Case N-494 approach was revised using the PWFAD procedure in the same manner as in the development of the original N-494 approach for ferritic materials. A lower bound stress-strain curve was used to generate a PWFAD curve for the geometry of a part-through wall circumferential flaw in a cylinder under tension. Earlier work demonstrated that a cylinder under axial tension with a 50% flaw depth, 90 degrees in circumference, and radius to thickness of 10, produced a lower bound FAD curve. Validation of the new proposed Code Case procedure for austenitic piping was performed using actual pipe test data. Using the lower bound PWFAD curve, pipe test results were conservatively predicted. The resultant development of ht PWFAD curve for austenitic piping led to a revision of Code Case N-494 to include a procedure for assessment of flaws in austenitic piping

  18. Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) Database

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Veterans Affairs — The Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) database is part of the VA Surgical Quality Improvement Program (VASQIP). This database contains assessments of selected surgical...

  19. Assessment of RELAP5/Mod3 system thermal hydraulic code using power test data of a BWR6 reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, M.; Chiang, C.S.

    1997-01-01

    The power test data of Kuosheng Nuclear Power Plant were used to assess RELAP5/Mod3 system thermal hydraulic analysis code. The plant employed a General Electric designed Boiling Water Reactor (BWR6) with rated power of 2894 MWth. The purpose of the assessment is to verify the validity of the plant specific RELAP5/Mod3 input deck for transient analysis. The power tests considered in the assessment were 100% power generator load rejection, the closure of main steam isolation valves (MSIVs) at 96% power, and the trip of recirculation pumps at 68% power. The major parameters compared in the assessment were steam dome pressure, steam flow rate, core flow rate, and downcomer water level. The comparisons of the system responses predicted by the code and the power test data were reasonable which demonstrated the capabilities of the code and the validity of the input deck. However, it was also identified that the separator model of the code may cause energy imbalance problem in the transient calculation. In the assessment, the steam separators were modeled using time-dependent junctions. In the approach, a complete separation of steam and water was predicted. The system responses predicted by RELAP5/Mod3 code were also compared with those from the calculations of RETRAN code. When these results were compared with the power test data, the predictions of the RETRAN code were better than those of RELAP5/Mod3. In the simulation of 100% power generator load rejection, it was believed that the difference in the steam separator model of these two codes was one of the reason of the difference in the prediction of power test data. The predictions of RELAP/Mod3 code can also be improved by the incorporation of one-dimensional kinetic model. There was also some margin for the improvement of the input related to the feedwater control system. (author)

  20. Approaching application of risk-based inspection to ASME code section XI

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hedden, Owen F.

    1995-01-01

    This paper will describe current efforts within the ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Committee's Subcommittee on Nuclear Inservice Inspection to introduce risk-based technology to optimize inservice inspection of nuclear power plants. The subcommittee is responsible for the content of ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code Section XI, Rules for Inservice Inspection of Nuclear Power Plant Components. The paper will first provide the historical background for the inspection program currently in Section XI. It will then describe the development of new technology through the ASME Center for Research and Technology Development program. Next, the work now going on in two of the groups under the Section XI committee will be described in detail. Each of these two efforts is directed toward the application of new risk-based inspection technology to nuclear piping systems. Finally, the directions of additional research and applications of the technology will be discussed. (author)

  1. Cultural heuristics in risk assessment of HIV/AIDS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bailey, A.; Hutter, I.

    2006-01-01

    Behaviour change models in HIV prevention tend to consider that risky sexual behaviours reflect risk assessments and that by changing risk assessments behaviour can be changed. Risk assessment is however culturally constructed. Individuals use heuristics or bounded cognitive devices derived from

  2. Coupling Legacy and Contemporary Deterministic Codes to Goldsim for Probabilistic Assessments of Potential Low-Level Waste Repository Sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mattie, P. D.; Knowlton, R. G.; Arnold, B. W.; Tien, N.; Kuo, M.

    2006-12-01

    Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia), a U.S. Department of Energy National Laboratory, has over 30 years experience in radioactive waste disposal and is providing assistance internationally in a number of areas relevant to the safety assessment of radioactive waste disposal systems. International technology transfer efforts are often hampered by small budgets, time schedule constraints, and a lack of experienced personnel in countries with small radioactive waste disposal programs. In an effort to surmount these difficulties, Sandia has developed a system that utilizes a combination of commercially available codes and existing legacy codes for probabilistic safety assessment modeling that facilitates the technology transfer and maximizes limited available funding. Numerous codes developed and endorsed by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission and codes developed and maintained by United States Department of Energy are generally available to foreign countries after addressing import/export control and copyright requirements. From a programmatic view, it is easier to utilize existing codes than to develop new codes. From an economic perspective, it is not possible for most countries with small radioactive waste disposal programs to maintain complex software, which meets the rigors of both domestic regulatory requirements and international peer review. Therefore, re-vitalization of deterministic legacy codes, as well as an adaptation of contemporary deterministic codes, provides a creditable and solid computational platform for constructing probabilistic safety assessment models. External model linkage capabilities in Goldsim and the techniques applied to facilitate this process will be presented using example applications, including Breach, Leach, and Transport-Multiple Species (BLT-MS), a U.S. NRC sponsored code simulating release and transport of contaminants from a subsurface low-level waste disposal facility used in a cooperative technology transfer

  3. Defining Probability in Sex Offender Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elwood, Richard W

    2016-12-01

    There is ongoing debate and confusion over using actuarial scales to predict individuals' risk of sexual recidivism. Much of the debate comes from not distinguishing Frequentist from Bayesian definitions of probability. Much of the confusion comes from applying Frequentist probability to individuals' risk. By definition, only Bayesian probability can be applied to the single case. The Bayesian concept of probability resolves most of the confusion and much of the debate in sex offender risk assessment. Although Bayesian probability is well accepted in risk assessment generally, it has not been widely used to assess the risk of sex offenders. I review the two concepts of probability and show how the Bayesian view alone provides a coherent scheme to conceptualize individuals' risk of sexual recidivism.

  4. Completion of risk assessment and monitoring within forensic psychiatry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galappathie, Nuwan; Heeramun, Ragini; Jethwa, Krishma

    2009-04-01

    There is a clear need for high standards of risk assessment and monitoring within forensic psychiatry. This has been highlighted by a number of high profile homicide enquires which have called for better standards of multidisciplinary risk assessment and monitoring. There are no national standards for risk assessment. We conducted a study to audit electronically the completion rate of a service-designed risk assessment document within Fromside, a medium secure unit in the UK. The completion rates for key sections of 64 risk assessment documents were assessed. Only 48 of the 64 (75%) documents were electronically available. The completion rates ranged from 59/64 (92%) for the retrospective risk review to 46/64 (72%) for relapse indicators. Only 35/64 (55%) risk documents were updated within the last three months. We found that the use of risk profile documents has helped achieve good standards of risk assessment, however greater priority needs to be given to ongoing monitoring. We recommend that consideration is given to the development of national guidelines for multidisciplinary risk assessment and monitoring.

  5. Heavy metals distribution and risk assessment in soil from an informal E-waste recycling site in Lagos State, Nigeria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isimekhai, Khadijah A; Garelick, Hemda; Watt, John; Purchase, Diane

    2017-07-01

    Informal E-waste recycling can pose a risk to human health and the environment which this study endeavours to evaluate. The distribution of a number of heavy metals in soil from an informal recycling site in the largest market for used and new electronics and electrical equipment in West Africa was investigated. The potential bioavailability of heavy metals, extent of contamination, potential risk due to the recycling activities and impact of external factors such as rainfall were also assessed. The concentrations of all the heavy metals tested were higher in the area where burning of the waste occurred than at the control site, suggesting an impact of the recycling activities on the soil. The order of total metal concentrations was Cu > Pb > Zn > Mn > Ni > Sb > Cr > Cd for both the dry and wet seasons. The total concentrations of Cd, Cu, Mn, Ni and Zn were all significantly higher (p  Sb > Zn > Cu > Ni > Pb > Cr. When the risk was assessed using the Potential Ecological Risk Index (PERI), Cu was found to contribute the most to the potential ecological risk and Cd gave rise to the greatest concern due to its high toxic-response factor within the study site. Similarly, utilising the Risk Assessment Code (RAC) suggested that Cd posed the most risk in this site. This research establishes a high level of contamination in the study site and underscores the importance of applying the appropriate chemical speciation in risk assessment.

  6. Using QR codes for continuous assessment in higher education

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Virginia Jiménez Rodríguez

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The implementation of information and communications technology (ICT in education has accelerated in recent years. At university level educational platforms that provide access to the contents of different subjects are used, as well as on-line communication between teachers and students. This project intended to improve teacher quality and motivation and satisfaction in 1st grade students, through the insertion of new ICT tools [forms Google and QR codes (quick response codes] that allow students the continuous assessment of their own learning, with particular emphasis on the application of metacognitive strategies for problem solving. It was conducted during the academic year 2014-2015 in the subject of Basic Psychology (practices. The subject Basic Psychology is taught in 1st Degree of Social Work at the Complutense University of Madrid. It consists of six ECTS (European Credit Transfer and Accumulation System credits and as such, students receive two hours of lecture and practical class one hour each week. It was during the weekly hour of practice which was carried out this innovation project.

  7. The neural dynamics of reward value and risk coding in the human orbitofrontal cortex.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yansong; Vanni-Mercier, Giovanna; Isnard, Jean; Mauguière, François; Dreher, Jean-Claude

    2016-04-01

    The orbitofrontal cortex is known to carry information regarding expected reward, risk and experienced outcome. Yet, due to inherent limitations in lesion and neuroimaging methods, the neural dynamics of these computations has remained elusive in humans. Here, taking advantage of the high temporal definition of intracranial recordings, we characterize the neurophysiological signatures of the intact orbitofrontal cortex in processing information relevant for risky decisions. Local field potentials were recorded from the intact orbitofrontal cortex of patients suffering from drug-refractory partial epilepsy with implanted depth electrodes as they performed a probabilistic reward learning task that required them to associate visual cues with distinct reward probabilities. We observed three successive signals: (i) around 400 ms after cue presentation, the amplitudes of the local field potentials increased with reward probability; (ii) a risk signal emerged during the late phase of reward anticipation and during the outcome phase; and (iii) an experienced value signal appeared at the time of reward delivery. Both the medial and lateral orbitofrontal cortex encoded risk and reward probability while the lateral orbitofrontal cortex played a dominant role in coding experienced value. The present study provides the first evidence from intracranial recordings that the human orbitofrontal cortex codes reward risk both during late reward anticipation and during the outcome phase at a time scale of milliseconds. Our findings offer insights into the rapid mechanisms underlying the ability to learn structural relationships from the environment. © The Author (2016). Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Guarantors of Brain. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  8. Quantifying risk and accuracy in cancer risk assessment: the process and its role in risk management problem-solving.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turturro, A; Hart, R W

    1987-01-01

    A better understanding of chemical-induced cancer has led to appreciation of similarities to problems addressed by risk management of radiation-induced toxicity. Techniques developed for cancer risk assessment of toxic substances can be generalized to toxic agents. A recent problem-solving approach for risk management of toxic substances developed for the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, and the role of risk assessment and how uncertainty should be treated within the context of this approach, is discussed. Finally, two different methods, research into the assumptions underlying risk assessment and the modification of risk assessment/risk management documents, are used to illustrate how the technique can be applied.

  9. Qualification and application of nuclear reactor accident analysis code with the capability of internal assessment of uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borges, Ronaldo Celem

    2001-10-01

    This thesis presents an independent qualification of the CIAU code ('Code with the capability of - Internal Assessment of Uncertainty') which is part of the internal uncertainty evaluation process with a thermal hydraulic system code on a realistic basis. This is done by combining the uncertainty methodology UMAE ('Uncertainty Methodology based on Accuracy Extrapolation') with the RELAP5/Mod3.2 code. This allows associating uncertainty band estimates with the results obtained by the realistic calculation of the code, meeting licensing requirements of safety analysis. The independent qualification is supported by simulations with RELAP5/Mod3.2 related to accident condition tests of LOBI experimental facility and to an event which has occurred in Angra 1 nuclear power plant, by comparison with measured results and by establishing uncertainty bands on safety parameter calculated time trends. These bands have indeed enveloped the measured trends. Results from this independent qualification of CIAU have allowed to ascertain the adequate application of a systematic realistic code procedure to analyse accidents with uncertainties incorporated in the results, although there is an evident need of extending the uncertainty data base. It has been verified that use of the code with this internal assessment of uncertainty is feasible in the design and license stages of a NPP. (author)

  10. Risk Assessment for an Unmanned Merchant Ship

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ø.J. Rødseth

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The MUNIN project is doing a feasibility study on an unmanned bulk carrier on an intercontinental voyage. To develop the technical and operational concepts, MUNIN has used a risk-based design method, based on the Formal Safety Analysis method which is also recommended by the International Mari-time Organization. Scenario analysis has been used to identify risks and to simplify operational scope. Systematic hazard identification has been used to find critical safety and security risks and how to address these. Technology and operational concept testing is using a hypothesis-based test method, where the hypotheses have been created as a result of the risk assessment. Finally, the cost-benefit assessment will also use results from the risk assessment. This paper describes the risk assessment method, some of the most important results and also describes how the results have been or will be used in the different parts of the project.

  11. Hanford Site Risk Assessment Methodology. Revision 3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-05-01

    This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and ecological evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act of 1980 (CERCLA) remedial investigations (RI) and the Resource conservation and Recovery Act of 1976 (RCRA) facility investigations (FI) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (Ecology et al. 1994), referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and ecological risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site

  12. Assessment and uncertainty analysis of groundwater risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Fawen; Zhu, Jingzhao; Deng, Xiyuan; Zhao, Yong; Li, Shaofei

    2018-01-01

    Groundwater with relatively stable quantity and quality is commonly used by human being. However, as the over-mining of groundwater, problems such as groundwater funnel, land subsidence and salt water intrusion have emerged. In order to avoid further deterioration of hydrogeological problems in over-mining regions, it is necessary to conduct the assessment of groundwater risk. In this paper, risks of shallow and deep groundwater in the water intake area of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project in Tianjin, China, were evaluated. Firstly, two sets of four-level evaluation index system were constructed based on the different characteristics of shallow and deep groundwater. Secondly, based on the normalized factor values and the synthetic weights, the risk values of shallow and deep groundwater were calculated. Lastly, the uncertainty of groundwater risk assessment was analyzed by indicator kriging method. The results meet the decision maker's demand for risk information, and overcome previous risk assessment results expressed in the form of deterministic point estimations, which ignore the uncertainty of risk assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Risk assessment using probabilistic standards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Avila, R.

    2004-01-01

    A core element of risk is uncertainty represented by plural outcomes and their likelihood. No risk exists if the future outcome is uniquely known and hence guaranteed. The probability that we will die some day is equal to 1, so there would be no fatal risk if sufficiently long time frame is assumed. Equally, rain risk does not exist if there was 100% assurance of rain tomorrow, although there would be other risks induced by the rain. In a formal sense, any risk exists if, and only if, more than one outcome is expected at a future time interval. In any practical risk assessment we have to deal with uncertainties associated with the possible outcomes. One way of dealing with the uncertainties is to be conservative in the assessments. For example, we may compare the maximal exposure to a radionuclide with a conservatively chosen reference value. In this case, if the exposure is below the reference value then it is possible to assure that the risk is low. Since single values are usually compared; this approach is commonly called 'deterministic'. Its main advantage lies in the simplicity and in that it requires minimum information. However, problems arise when the reference values are actually exceeded or might be exceeded, as in the case of potential exposures, and when the costs for realizing the reference values are high. In those cases, the lack of knowledge on the degree of conservatism involved impairs a rational weighing of the risks against other interests. In this presentation we will outline an approach for dealing with uncertainties that in our opinion is more consistent. We will call it a 'fully probabilistic risk assessment'. The essence of this approach consists in measuring the risk in terms of probabilities, where the later are obtained from comparison of two probabilistic distributions, one reflecting the uncertainties in the outcomes and one reflecting the uncertainties in the reference value (standard) used for defining adverse outcomes. Our first aim

  14. Potential Risks of Ecological Momentary Assessment Among Persons Who Inject Drugs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roth, Alexis M; Rossi, John; Goldshear, Jesse L; Truong, Quan; Armenta, Richard F; Lankenau, Stephen E; Garfein, Richard S; Simmons, Janie

    2017-06-07

    Ecological momentary assessment (EMA)-which often involves brief surveys delivered via mobile technology-has transformed our understanding of the individual and contextual micro-processes associated with legal and illicit drug use. However, little empirical research has focused on participant's perspective on the probability and magnitude of potential risks in EMA studies. To garner participant perspectives on potential risks common to EMA studies of illicit drug use. We interviewed 38 persons who inject drugs living in San Diego (CA) and Philadelphia (PA), United States. They completed simulations of an EMA tool and then underwent a semi-structured interview that systematically explored domains of risk considered within the proposed revisions to the Federal Policy for the Protection of Human Subjects or the "Common Rule." Interviews were transcribed verbatim and coded systematically to explore psychological, physical, social, legal, and informational risks from participation. Participants perceived most risks to be minimal. Some indicated that repetitive questioning about mood or drug use could cause psychological (i.e., anxiety) or behavioral risks (i.e., drug use relapse). Ironically, the questions that were viewed as risky were considered motivational to engage in healthy behaviors. The most cited risks were legal and social risks stemming from participant concerns about data collection and security. Improving our understanding of these issues is an essential first step to protect human participants in future EMA research. We provide a brief set of recommendations that can aid in the design and ethics review of the future EMA protocol with substance using populations.

  15. Aggregate Exposure and Cumulative Risk Assessment--Integrating Occupational and Non-occupational Risk Factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lentz, T J; Dotson, G S; Williams, P R D; Maier, A; Gadagbui, B; Pandalai, S P; Lamba, A; Hearl, F; Mumtaz, M

    2015-01-01

    Occupational exposure limits have traditionally focused on preventing morbidity and mortality arising from inhalation exposures to individual chemical stressors in the workplace. While central to occupational risk assessment, occupational exposure limits have limited application as a refined disease prevention tool because they do not account for all of the complexities of the work and non-occupational environments and are based on varying health endpoints. To be of greater utility, occupational exposure limits and other risk management tools could integrate broader consideration of risks from multiple exposure pathways and routes (aggregate risk) as well as the combined risk from exposure to both chemical and non-chemical stressors, within and beyond the workplace, including the possibility that such exposures may cause interactions or modify the toxic effects observed (cumulative risk). Although still at a rudimentary stage in many cases, a variety of methods and tools have been developed or are being used in allied risk assessment fields to incorporate such considerations in the risk assessment process. These approaches, which are collectively referred to as cumulative risk assessment, have potential to be adapted or modified for occupational scenarios and provide a tangible path forward for occupational risk assessment. Accounting for complex exposures in the workplace and the broader risks faced by the individual also requires a more complete consideration of the composite effects of occupational and non-occupational risk factors to fully assess and manage worker health problems. Barriers to integrating these different factors remain, but new and ongoing community-based and worker health-related initiatives may provide mechanisms for identifying and integrating risk from aggregate exposures and cumulative risks from all relevant sources, be they occupational or non-occupational.

  16. Structural reliability assessment capability in NESSUS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millwater, H.; Wu, Y.-T.

    1992-07-01

    The principal capabilities of NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress), an advanced computer code developed for probabilistic structural response analysis, are reviewed, and its structural reliability assessed. The code combines flexible structural modeling tools with advanced probabilistic algorithms in order to compute probabilistic structural response and resistance, component reliability and risk, and system reliability and risk. An illustrative numerical example is presented.

  17. Systems Toxicology: The Future of Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauer, John Michael; Hartung, Thomas; Leist, Marcel; Knudsen, Thomas B; Hoeng, Julia; Hayes, A Wallace

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment, in the context of public health, is the process of quantifying the probability of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from human activities. With increasing public health concern regarding the potential risks associated with chemical exposure, there is a need for more predictive and accurate approaches to risk assessment. Developing such an approach requires a mechanistic understanding of the process by which xenobiotic substances perturb biological systems and lead to toxicity. Supplementing the shortfalls of traditional risk assessment with mechanistic biological data has been widely discussed but not routinely implemented in the evaluation of chemical exposure. These mechanistic approaches to risk assessment have been generally referred to as systems toxicology. This Symposium Overview article summarizes 4 talks presented at the 35th Annual Meeting of the American College of Toxicology. © The Author(s) 2015.

  18. Risk assessment in support of plant health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jeger, Michael; Schans, Jan; Lövei, Gabor L.

    2012-01-01

    environmental risk assessment and the evaluation of risk reducing options. Quantitative approaches have become increasingly important during this time. The Panel has developed such methods in climatic mapping (in association with the Joint Research Councils), application of spatial spread models, re......With the establishment of the Plant Health Panel in 2006, EFSA became the body responsible for risk assessment in the plant health area for the European Union (EU). Since then more than 70 outputs have been produced dealing with the full range of organisms harmful to plant health across all crop...... types and plants in the environment. There has been an increasing trend towards producing scientific opinions which are full pest risk assessments for the whole EU territory. In its work, and as a contribution to the wider development of risk assessment methodology, the Panel has developed a series...

  19. Adapting the coping in deliberation (CODE) framework: a multi-method approach in the context of familial ovarian cancer risk management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Witt, Jana; Elwyn, Glyn; Wood, Fiona; Rogers, Mark T; Menon, Usha; Brain, Kate

    2014-11-01

    To test whether the coping in deliberation (CODE) framework can be adapted to a specific preference-sensitive medical decision: risk-reducing bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy (RRSO) in women at increased risk of ovarian cancer. We performed a systematic literature search to identify issues important to women during deliberations about RRSO. Three focus groups with patients (most were pre-menopausal and untested for genetic mutations) and 11 interviews with health professionals were conducted to determine which issues mattered in the UK context. Data were used to adapt the generic CODE framework. The literature search yielded 49 relevant studies, which highlighted various issues and coping options important during deliberations, including mutation status, risks of surgery, family obligations, physician recommendation, peer support and reliable information sources. Consultations with UK stakeholders confirmed most of these factors as pertinent influences on deliberations. Questions in the generic framework were adapted to reflect the issues and coping options identified. The generic CODE framework was readily adapted to a specific preference-sensitive medical decision, showing that deliberations and coping are linked during deliberations about RRSO. Adapted versions of the CODE framework may be used to develop tailored decision support methods and materials in order to improve patient-centred care. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Performing the lockout/tagout risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallace, W Jon

    2007-03-01

    Lockout/tagout provides the greatest level routine, repetitive, and integral to the production process, a risk assessment should be performed. If the task performed poses an unacceptable risk, acceptable risk reduction methods should be implemented to reduce the risk to acceptable levels.

  1. Bioassay-based risk assessment of complex mixtures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Donnelly, K.C.; Huebner, H.J.

    1996-01-01

    The baseline risk assessment often plays an integral role in various decision-making processes at Superfund sites. The present study reports on risk characterizations prepared for seven complex mixtures using biological and chemical analysis. Three of the samples (A, B, and C) were complex mixtures of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) extracted from coal tar; while four samples extracted from munitions-contaminated soil contained primarily nitroaromatic hydrocarbons. The chemical-based risk assessment ranked sample C as least toxic, while the risk associated with samples A and B was approximately equal. The microbial bioassay was in general agreement for the coal tar samples. The weighted activity of the coal tar extracts in Salmonella was 4,960 for sample C, and 162,000 and 206,000 for samples A and B, respectively. The bacterial mutagenicity of 2,4,6-trinitrotoluene contaminated soils exhibited an indirect correlation with chemical-based risk assessment. The aqueous extract of sample 004 induced 1,292 net revertants in Salmonella, while the estimated risk to ingestion and dermal adsorption was 2E-9. The data indicate that the chemical-based risk assessment accurately predicted the genotoxicity of the PAHs, while the accuracy of the risk assessment for munitions contaminated soils was limited due to the presence of metabolites of TNT degradation. The biological tests used in this research provide a valuable compliment to chemical analysis for characterizing the genotoxic risk of complex mixtures

  2. Experimental assessment of computer codes used for safety analysis of integral reactors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Falkov, A.A.; Kuul, V.S.; Samoilov, O.B. [OKB Mechanical Engineering, Nizhny Novgorod (Russian Federation)

    1995-09-01

    Peculiarities of integral reactor thermohydraulics in accidents are associated with presence of noncondensable gas in built-in pressurizer, absence of pumped ECCS, use of guard vessel for LOCAs localisation and passive RHRS through in-reactor HX`s. These features defined the main trends in experimental investigations and verification efforts for computer codes applied. The paper reviews briefly the performed experimental investigation of thermohydraulics of AST-500, VPBER600-type integral reactors. The characteristic of UROVEN/MB-3 code for LOCAs analysis in integral reactors and results of its verification are given. The assessment of RELAP5/mod3 applicability for accident analysis in integral reactor is presented.

  3. An integrated framework for health and ecological risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suter, Glenn W.; Vermeire, Theo; Munns, Wayne R.; Sekizawa, Jun

    2005-01-01

    The worldHealth Organization's (WHO's) International Program for Chemical Safety has developed a framework for performing risk assessments that integrate the assessment of risks to human health and risks to nonhuman organisms and ecosystems. The WHO's framework recognizes that stakeholders and risk managers have their own processes that are parallel to the scientific process of risk assessment and may interact with the risk assessment at various points, depending on the context. Integration of health and ecology provides consistent expressions of assessment results, incorporates the interdependence of humans and the environment, uses sentinel organisms, and improves the efficiency and quality of assessments relative to independent human health and ecological risk assessments. The advantage of the framework to toxicologists lies in the opportunity to use understanding of toxicokinetics and toxicodynamics to inform the integrated assessment of all exposed species

  4. Risk assessment of radiation carcinogenesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kai, Michiaki

    2012-01-01

    This commentary describes the radiation cancer risk assessed by international organizations other than ICRP, assessed for radon and for internal exposure, in the series from the aspect of radiation protection of explaining the assessments done until ICRP Pub. 103. Statistic significant increase of cancer formation is proved at higher doses than 100-200 mSv. At lower doses, with use of mathematical model, United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) reported the death probability due to the excess lifetime risk (ELR) at 100 mSv of 0.36-0.77% for solid tumors and 0.03-0.05% for leukemia, and NRC in US, the risk of exposure-induced prevalence and death (REID) per 100 thousands persons of 800 (male)/1,310 (female) and 410/610, respectively. Both are essentially based on findings in A-bomb survivors. The assessment for Rn is described here not on dose. UK and US analyses of pooled raw data in case control studies revealed the significant increase of lung cancer formation at as low level as 100 Bq Rn/m3. Their analyses also showed the significance of smoking, which had been realized as a confounding factor in risk analysis of Rn for uranium miners. The death probability until the age of 85 y was found to be 1.2 x 10 -4 in non-smokers and 24 x 10 -4 in smokers/ Working Level Month (WLM). Increased thyroid cancer incidence has been known in Chernobyl Accident, which is realized as a result of internal exposure of radioiodine; however, the relationship between the internal dose to thyroid and its cancer prevalence resembles that in the case of external exposure. There is no certain evidence against the concept that risk of internal exposure is similar to and/or lower than, the external one although assessment of the internal exposure risk accompanies uncertainty depending on the used model and ingested dose. International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) recommendations hitherto have been important and precious despite

  5. Ethics of Risk. Kristin Shrader-Frechette's Philosophical Critique of Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heikkeroe, Topi

    2006-01-01

    This paper addresses risk assessment from a philosophical point of view. It presents and critically reviews the work of Kristin Shrader-Frechette. It introduces the ethical, epistemological, and methodological issues related to risk assessment. The paper focuses on the ethical questions of justice in risk decisions. It opens by framing the relationship between ethics and technology in the modern world. Then the paper turns to a brief description of risk assessment as a central method in technological decision making. It proceeds to show how Shrader-Frechette analyzes ethical and political aspects of risk assessment. The central argumentation In her critique follows RawIsian lines: distributive and participatory inequalities in creating technological constructions need to be justified. To clarify this requirement she formulates the Principle of Prima Facie Political Equity (PPFPE), which is her central tool in most of her ethical criticism, for instance, in relation to the future generations: prima facie. all generations should be treated equally. Brief critical remarks conclude the paper. They touch upon placing Shrader-Frechette's project on the academic chart and her liberal individualist anthropology

  6. Assessment of Programming Language Learning Based on Peer Code Review Model: Implementation and Experience Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yanqing; Li, Hang; Feng, Yuqiang; Jiang, Yu; Liu, Ying

    2012-01-01

    The traditional assessment approach, in which one single written examination counts toward a student's total score, no longer meets new demands of programming language education. Based on a peer code review process model, we developed an online assessment system called "EduPCR" and used a novel approach to assess the learning of computer…

  7. A Tutorial on Probablilistic Risk Assessement and its Role in Risk-Informed Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews risk assessment and its role in risk-informed decision making. It includes information on probabilistic risk assessment, typical risk management process, origins of risk matrix, performance measures, performance objectives and Bayes theorem.

  8. SEVERO code - user's manual

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sacramento, A.M. do.

    1989-01-01

    This user's manual contains all the necessary information concerning the use of SEVERO code. This computer code is related to the statistics of extremes = extreme winds, extreme precipitation and flooding hazard risk analysis. (A.C.A.S.)

  9. Risk assessment and multi-criteria decision-making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Segerstaahl, Boris

    1989-01-01

    Risk assessment and analysis is connected to the policy framework used in decision-making on issues concerning technological risk. A review of the problems created by different views concerning the fundamental structure of risk concepts is used as a way to describe the structure of risk assessment studies as used in decision-making. The fundamental difference between judgments based on assessments and on perceptions is analyzed in order to explain the dynamics of the decision making process. A proposed effort to study the energy sector as a dynamic endless game implementing a mixed strategy is suggested. (author)

  10. Comparative Risk Assessment to Inform Adaptation Priorities for the Natural Environment: Observations from the First UK Climate Change Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iain Brown

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment can potentially provide an objective framework to synthesise and prioritise climate change risks to inform adaptation policy. However, there are significant challenges in the application of comparative risk assessment procedures to climate change, particularly for the natural environment. These challenges are evaluated with particular reference to the first statutory Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA and evidence review procedures used to guide policy for the UK government. More progress was achieved on risk identification, screening and prioritisation compared to risk quantification. This was due to the inherent complexity and interdependence of ecological risks and their interaction with socio-economic drivers as well as a climate change. Robust strategies to manage risk were identified as those that coordinate organisational resources to enhance ecosystem resilience, and to accommodate inevitable change, rather than to meet specific species or habitats targets. The assessment also highlighted subjective and contextual components of risk appraisal including ethical issues regarding the level of human intervention in the natural environment and the proposed outcomes of any intervention. This suggests that goals for risk assessment need to be more clearly explicated and assumptions on tolerable risk declared as a primer for further dialogue on expectations for managed outcomes. Ecosystem-based adaptation may mean that traditional habitats and species conservation goals and existing regulatory frameworks no longer provide the best guide for long-term risk management thereby challenging the viability of some existing practices.

  11. Assessment of health risks of policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ádám, Balázs; Molnár, Ágnes; Ádány, Róza; Bianchi, Fabrizio; Bitenc, Katarina; Chereches, Razvan; Cori, Liliana; Fehr, Rainer; Kobza, Joanna; Kollarova, Jana

    2014-01-01

    The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidance and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals

  12. Assessment of health risks of policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ádám, Balázs, E-mail: badam@cmss.sdu.dk [Unit for Health Promotion Research, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Southern Denmark, Niels Bohrs Vej 9, DK-6700 Esbjerg (Denmark); Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Molnár, Ágnes, E-mail: MolnarAg@smh.ca [Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Centre for Research on Inner City Health, Keenan Research Centre, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St Michael' s Hospital, Victoria 209, Rm. 3-26.22, M5B 1C6 Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Ádány, Róza, E-mail: adany.roza@sph.unideb.hu [Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Bianchi, Fabrizio, E-mail: Fabriepi@ifc.cnr.it [Unit of Environmental Epidemiology, Institute of Clinical Physiology, National Council of Research, Moruzzi 1, 56124 Pisa (Italy); Bitenc, Katarina, E-mail: katarina.bitenc@ivz-rs.si [National Institute of Public Health, Trubarjeva 2, SI-1000 Ljubljana (Slovenia); Chereches, Razvan, E-mail: razvan.m.chereches@gmail.com [Faculty of Political, Administrative and Communication Sciences, Babes-Bolyai University, Strada Mihail Kogalniceanu 1, 3400 Cluj (Romania); Cori, Liliana, E-mail: liliana.cori@ifc.cnr.it [Unit of Environmental Epidemiology, Institute of Clinical Physiology, National Council of Research, Moruzzi 1, 56124 Pisa (Italy); Fehr, Rainer, E-mail: rainer.fehr@uni-bielefeld.de [NRW Centre for Health, Westerfeldstr. 35-37, 33611 Bielefeld (Germany); Kobza, Joanna, E-mail: koga1@poczta.onet.pl [Public Health Department, Silesian Medical University, 18 Medykow Street, 40-752 Katowice (Poland); Kollarova, Jana, E-mail: janakollarova@yahoo.com [Department of Health Promotion, Regional Public Health Authority, Ipelska 1, 04011 Kosice (Slovakia); and others

    2014-09-15

    The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidance and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals.

  13. Assessing and managing multiple risks in a changing world ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roskilde University (Denmark) hosted a November 2015 workshop, Environmental Risk—Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World. This Focus article presents the consensus recommendations of 30 attendees from 9 countries regarding implementation of a common currency (ecosystem services) for holistic environmental risk assessment and management; improvements to risk assessment and management in a complex, human-modified, and changing world; appropriate development of protection goals in a 2-stage process; dealing with societal issues; risk-management information needs; conducting risk assessment of risk management; and development of adaptive and flexible regulatory systems. The authors encourage both cross-disciplinary and interdisciplinary approaches to address their 10 recommendations: 1) adopt ecosystem services as a common currency for risk assessment and management; 2) consider cumulative stressors (chemical and nonchemical) and determine which dominate to best manage and restore ecosystem services; 3) fully integrate risk managers and communities of interest into the risk-assessment process; 4) fully integrate risk assessors and communities of interest into the risk-management process; 5) consider socioeconomics and increased transparency in both risk assessment and risk management; 6) recognize the ethical rights of humans and ecosystems to an adequate level of protection; 7) determine relevant reference conditions and the proper ecological c

  14. Risk assessment and risk management in managed aquifer recharge

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Page, D

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This chapter presents the methodologies used for risk assessment and risk management in MAR in Australia and the European Union, qualitative and quantitative approaches adopted within the RECLAIM Water project and case studies where the outcomes...

  15. Novel Threat-risk Index Using Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Human Reliability Analysis - Final Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    George A. Beitel

    2004-02-01

    In support of a national need to improve the current state-of-the-art in alerting decision makers to the risk of terrorist attack, a quantitative approach employing scientific and engineering concepts to develop a threat-risk index was undertaken at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL). As a result of this effort, a set of models has been successfully integrated into a single comprehensive model known as Quantitative Threat-Risk Index Model (QTRIM), with the capability of computing a quantitative threat-risk index on a system level, as well as for the major components of the system. Such a threat-risk index could provide a quantitative variant or basis for either prioritizing security upgrades or updating the current qualitative national color-coded terrorist threat alert.

  16. RESRAD: an analysis method of the exposure via to ionizing radiation, used on radiological risk assessment in sites with problems of soil contamination

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oliveira Loureiro, C. de; Yu, C.

    1995-01-01

    A microcomputer program, denominated RESRAD, was presented and described as an analytical tool to perform pathway analysis and radiological risk assessment. Nine exposure pathways are implemented in the code. They are the following: external radiation; dust inhalation; inhalation of radon; and, ingestion of plant, meat, milk, water, aquatic food, and soil. The U.S. Department of Energy (US-DOE) has recommended the use of RESRAD, as a radiological risk assessment package, for completing the pathway analysis needed to derive specific soil-guidelines and to support the ALARA evaluation. Since its conception, the RESRAD code has been continuously improved and updated to accommodate comments and suggestions from its users and to incorporate new features to improve its capability and flexibility. Version 5.0 consolidates the last major RESRAD updates. The package is intentionally user-friendly and operates with a menu system from which the user can access the data input screens, run the RESRAD calculations and view the output. (author). 4 refs, 1 fig, 1 tab

  17. Safety evaluation for the LMFBR plant using probabilistic risk assessment techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kani, Y.; Aizawa, K.

    1987-01-01

    This paper presents an application of probabilistic risk assessment techniques to a typical loop-type liquid metal fast breeder reactor (LMFBR) plant in the detailed design stage. A comprehensive systems analysis has been performed to identify event sequences leading to core damage and provide insights into the importance of accident contributors. While traditional event tree/fault tree modeling was used for the analysis, this study involved a thorough investigation of initiating events and of support system faults. The qualification of accident sequences has been conducted by combining the fault trees based on the event trees and obtaining sequence cut sets with the use of the SETS code. This study also attempted to quantify the potential for operator recovery actions in the course of each accident sequence. (author)

  18. Development of Pflotran Code for Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Performance Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeitler, T.; Day, B. A.; Frederick, J.; Hammond, G. E.; Kim, S.; Sarathi, R.; Stein, E.

    2017-12-01

    The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) has been developed by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) for the geologic (deep underground) disposal of transuranic (TRU) waste. Containment of TRU waste at the WIPP is regulated by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The DOE demonstrates compliance with the containment requirements by means of performance assessment (PA) calculations. WIPP PA calculations estimate the probability and consequence of potential radionuclide releases from the repository to the accessible environment for a regulatory period of 10,000 years after facility closure. The long-term performance of the repository is assessed using a suite of sophisticated computational codes. There is a current effort to enhance WIPP PA capabilities through the further development of the PFLOTRAN software, a state-of-the-art massively parallel subsurface flow and reactive transport code. Benchmark testing of the individual WIPP-specific process models implemented in PFLOTRAN (e.g., gas generation, chemistry, creep closure, actinide transport, and waste form) has been performed, including results comparisons for PFLOTRAN and existing WIPP PA codes. Additionally, enhancements to the subsurface hydrologic flow mode have been made. Repository-scale testing has also been performed for the modified PFLTORAN code and detailed results will be presented. Ultimately, improvements to the current computational environment will result in greater detail and flexibility in the repository model due to a move from a two-dimensional calculation grid to a three-dimensional representation. The result of the effort will be a state-of-the-art subsurface flow and transport capability that will serve WIPP PA into the future for use in compliance recertification applications (CRAs) submitted to the EPA. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-mission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology and Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC., a wholly owned subsidiary of

  19. Depleted uranium residual radiological risk assessment for Kosovo sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Durante, Marco; Pugliese, Mariagabriella

    2003-01-01

    During the recent conflict in Yugoslavia, depleted uranium rounds were employed and were left in the battlefield. Health concern is related to the risk arising from contamination of areas in Kosovo with depleted uranium penetrators and dust. Although chemical toxicity is the most significant health risk related to uranium, radiation exposure has been allegedly related to cancers among veterans of the Balkan conflict. Uranium munitions are considered to be a source of radiological contamination of the environment. Based on measurements and estimates from the recent Balkan Task Force UNEP mission in Kosovo, we have estimated effective doses to resident populations using a well-established food-web mathematical model (RESRAD code). The UNEP mission did not find any evidence of widespread contamination in Kosovo. Rather than the actual measurements, we elected to use a desk assessment scenario (Reference Case) proposed by the UNEP group as the source term for computer simulations. Specific applications to two Kosovo sites (Planeja village and Vranovac hill) are described. Results of the simulations suggest that radiation doses from water-independent pathways are negligible (annual doses below 30 μSv). A small radiological risk is expected from contamination of the groundwater in conditions of effective leaching and low distribution coefficient of uranium metal. Under the assumptions of the Reference Case, significant radiological doses (>1 mSv/year) might be achieved after many years from the conflict through water-dependent pathways. Even in this worst-case scenario, DU radiological risk would be far overshadowed by its chemical toxicity

  20. Cloud computing assessing the risks

    CERN Document Server

    Carstensen, Jared; Golden, Bernard

    2012-01-01

    Cloud Computing: Assessing the risks answers these questions and many more. Using jargon-free language and relevant examples, analogies and diagrams, it is an up-to-date, clear and comprehensive guide the security, governance, risk, and compliance elements of Cloud Computing.

  1. Quantified risk assessment - a nuclear industry viewpoint

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomson, J.R.

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents a brief summary of the methodology used for the assessment of risk arising from fuel handling and dismantling operations in advanced gas-cooled reactor power stations. The difficulties with and problems arising from such risk assessments are discussed. In particular, difficulties arise from (i) the onerous risk criteria that nuclear plants are expected to satisfy, (ii) the necessary complexity of the plant, (iii) the conflicting requirements for the fault consequence assessments to be bounding but not grossly pessimistic, and (iv) areas of fault frequency assessment which contain possibly subjective considerations such as software and common mode failure. (author)

  2. SPECIFIC METHOD OF RISK ASSESSMENT IN TOURISM ENTERPRISES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreea ARMEAN

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to present an innovative method of risk assessment for tourism businesses. The contribution to literature is the novelty of this method of following paths: is an ante-factum assessment not post-factum; risk assessment is based on perception rather than results; is based on specific risks tourism enterprises not on the overall risks. Is an asset-research methodology and consists in generating its own method of risk assessment based on the ideas summarized from the literature studied. The aim established is tourism enterprises from Romania. The data necessary for the application of this method will result from applying to top level management of tourism enterprises, a questionnaire about risk perception. The results from this study will help identify and measure the risks specific to tourism enterprises. The applicability of the results is to improve risk management in these enterprises.

  3. New approaches for improving cardiovascular risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paredes, Simão; Rocha, Teresa; Mendes, Diana; Carvalho, Paulo; Henriques, Jorge; Morais, João; Ferreira, Jorge; Mendes, Miguel

    2016-01-01

    Clinical guidelines recommend the use of cardiovascular risk assessment tools (risk scores) to predict the risk of events such as cardiovascular death, since these scores can aid clinical decision-making and thereby reduce the social and economic costs of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, despite their importance, risk scores present important weaknesses that can diminish their reliability in clinical contexts. This study presents a new framework, based on current risk assessment tools, that aims to minimize these limitations. Appropriate application and combination of existing knowledge is the main focus of this work. Two different methodologies are applied: (i) a combination scheme that enables data to be extracted and processed from various sources of information, including current risk assessment tools and the contributions of the physician; and (ii) a personalization scheme based on the creation of patient groups with the purpose of identifying the most suitable risk assessment tool to assess the risk of a specific patient. Validation was performed based on a real patient dataset of 460 patients at Santa Cruz Hospital, Lisbon, Portugal, diagnosed with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome. Promising results were obtained with both approaches, which achieved sensitivity, specificity and geometric mean of 78.79%, 73.07% and 75.87%, and 75.69%, 69.79% and 72.71%, respectively. The proposed approaches present better performances than current CVD risk scores; however, additional datasets are required to back up these findings. Copyright © 2015 Sociedade Portuguesa de Cardiologia. Published by Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

  4. Seismic risk assessment of Navarre (Northern Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaspar-Escribano, J. M.; Rivas-Medina, A.; García Rodríguez, M. J.; Benito, B.; Tsige, M.; Martínez-Díaz, J. J.; Murphy, P.

    2009-04-01

    The RISNA project, financed by the Emergency Agency of Navarre (Northern Spain), aims at assessing the seismic risk of the entire region. The final goal of the project is the definition of emergency plans for future earthquakes. With this purpose, four main topics are covered: seismic hazard characterization, geotechnical classification, vulnerability assessment and damage estimation to structures and exposed population. A geographic information system is used to integrate, analyze and represent all information colleted in the different phases of the study. Expected ground motions on rock conditions with a 90% probability of non-exceedance in an exposure time of 50 years are determined following a Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) methodology that includes a logic tree with different ground motion and source zoning models. As the region under study is located in the boundary between Spain and France, an effort is required to collect and homogenise seismological data from different national and regional agencies. A new homogenised seismic catalogue, merging data from Spanish, French, Catalonian and international agencies and establishing correlations between different magnitude scales, is developed. In addition, a new seismic zoning model focused on the study area is proposed. Results show that the highest ground motions on rock conditions are expected in the northeastern part of the region, decreasing southwards. Seismic hazard can be expressed as low-to-moderate. A geotechnical classification of the entire region is developed based on surface geology, available borehole data and morphotectonic constraints. Frequency-dependent amplification factors, consistent with code values, are proposed. The northern and southern parts of the region are characterized by stiff and soft soils respectively, being the softest soils located along river valleys. Seismic hazard maps including soil effects are obtained by applying these factors to the seismic hazard maps

  5. Environmental Risk Communication through Qualitative Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabre J. Coleman

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Environmental analysts are often hampered in communicating the risks of environmental contaminants due to the myriad of regulatory requirements that are applicable. The use of a qualitative, risk-based control banding strategy for assessment and control of potential environmental contaminants provides a standardized approach to improve risk communication. Presented is a model that provides an effective means for determining standardized responses and controls for common environmental issues based on the level of risk. The model is designed for integration within an occupational health and safety management system to provide a multidisciplinary environmental and occupational risk management approach. This environmental model, which utilizes multidisciplinary control banding strategies for delineating risk, complements the existing Risk Level Based Management System, a proven method in a highly regulated facility for occupational health and safety. A simplified environmental risk matrix is presented that is stratified over four risk levels. Examples of qualitative environmental control banding strategies are presented as they apply to United States regulations for construction, research activities, facility maintenance, and spill remediation that affect air, water, soil, and waste disposal. This approach offers a standardized risk communication language for multidisciplinary issues that will improve communications within and between environmental health and safety professionals, workers, and management.

  6. Can we (actually) assess global risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano

    2013-04-01

    The evaluation of the dynamic interactions of the different components of global risk (e.g. hazard, exposure, vulnerability or resilience) is one of the main challenges in risk assessment and management. In state-of-the-art approaches for the analysis of risk, natural and socio-economic systems are typically treated separately by using different methods. In flood risk studies, for instance, physical scientists typically focus on the study of the probability of flooding (i.e. hazard), while social scientists mainly examine the exposure, vulnerability or resilience to flooding. However, these different components are deeply interconnected. Changes in flood hazard might trigger changes in vulnerability, and vice versa. A typical example of these interactions is the so-called "levee effect", whereby heightening levees to reduce the probability of flooding often leads to increase the potential adverse consequences of flooding as people often perceive that flood risk was completely eliminated once the levee was raised. These interconnections between the different components of risk remain largely unexplored and poorly understood. This lack of knowledge is of serious concern as it limits our ability to plan appropriate risk prevention measures. To design flood control structures, for example, state-of-the-art models can indeed provide quantitative assessments of the corresponding risk reduction associated to the lower probability of flooding. Nevertheless, current methods cannot estimate how, and to what extent, such a reduction might trigger a future increase of the potential adverse consequences of flooding (the aforementioned "levee effect"). Neither can they evaluate how the latter might (in turn) lead to the requirement of additional flood control structures. Thus, while many progresses have been made in the static assessment of flood risk, more inter-disciplinary research is required for the development of methods for dynamic risk assessment, which is very much

  7. Operationalization Of The Professional Risks Assessment Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivascu, Victoria Larisa; Cirjaliu, Bianca; Draghici, Anca

    2015-07-01

    Professional risks assessment approach (integration of analysis and evaluation processes) is linked with the general concerns of nowadays companies for their employees' health and safety assurances, in the context of organizations sustainable development. The paper presents an approach for the operationalization of the professional risk assessment activity in companies through the implementation and use of the OnRisk platform (this have been tested in some industrial companies). The short presentation of the relevant technical reports and statistics on OSH management at the European Union level underlines the need for the development of a professional risks assessment. Finally, there have been described the designed and developed OnRisk platform as a web platform together with some case studies that have validate the created tool.

  8. Methodology for technical risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waganer, L.M.; Zuckerman, D.S.

    1983-01-01

    A methodology has been developed for and applied to the assessment of the technical risks associated with an evolving technology. This methodology, originally developed for fusion by K. W. Billman and F. R. Scott at EPRI, has been applied to assess the technical risk of a fuel system for a fusion reactor. Technical risk is defined as the risk that a particular technology or component which is currently under development will not achieve a set of required technical specifications (i.e. probability of failure). The individual steps in the technical risk assessment are summarized. The first step in this methodology is to clearly and completely quantify the technical requirements for the particular system being examined. The next step is to identify and define subsystems and various options which appear capable of achieving the required technical performance. The subsystem options are then characterized regarding subsystem functions, interface requirements with the subsystems and systems, important components, developmental obstacles and technical limitations. Key technical subsystem performance parameters are identified which directly or indirectly relate to the system technical specifications. Past, existing and future technical performance data from subsystem experts are obtained by using a Bayesian Interrogation technique. The input data is solicited in the form of probability functions. Thus the output performance of the system is expressed as probability functions

  9. Coding Variation in ANGPTL4, LPL, and SVEP1 and the Risk of Coronary Disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stitziel, Nathan O; Stirrups, Kathleen E; Masca, Nicholas G D

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The discovery of low-frequency coding variants affecting the risk of coronary artery disease has facilitated the identification of therapeutic targets. METHODS: Through DNA genotyping, we tested 54,003 coding-sequence variants covering 13,715 human genes in up to 72,868 patients with ...

  10. Overcoming barriers to integrating economic analysis into risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffmann, Sandra

    2011-09-01

    Regulatory risk analysis is designed to provide decisionmakers with a clearer understanding of how policies are likely to affect risk. The systems that produce risk are biological, physical, and social and economic. As a result, risk analysis is an inherently interdisciplinary task. Yet in practice, risk analysis has been interdisciplinary in only limited ways. Risk analysis could provide more accurate assessments of risk if there were better integration of economics and other social sciences into risk assessment itself. This essay examines how discussions about risk analysis policy have influenced the roles of various disciplines in risk analysis. It explores ways in which integrated bio/physical-economic modeling could contribute to more accurate assessments of risk. It reviews examples of the kind of integrated economics-bio/physical modeling that could be used to enhance risk assessment. The essay ends with a discussion of institutional barriers to greater integration of economic modeling into risk assessment and provides suggestions on how these might be overcome. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  11. Monumental Masonry Buildings Pre-Assessment Method Based on Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meltem VATAN

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Availa