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Sample records for risk assessment blood

  1. Risk of red blood cell alloimmunisation in Rwanda: Assessment of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: Screening of alloantibodies in patients is not yet done in district hospitals of Rwanda. The practice is to transfuse ABO/D compatible blood following an immediate spin crossmatch (IS-XM) or indirect antiglobulin test crossmatch (IAT-XM). Objectives: To assess the risk of red blood cell (RBC) alloimmunisation ...

  2. Do expert assessments converge? An exploratory case study of evaluating and managing a blood supply risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eyles, John; Heddle, Nancy; Webert, Kathryn; Arnold, Emmy; McCurdy, Bronwen

    2011-08-24

    Examining professional assessments of a blood product recall/withdrawal and its implications for risk and public health, the paper introduces ideas about perceptions of minimal risk and its management. It also describes the context of publicly funded blood transfusion in Canada and the withdrawal event that is the basis of this study. Interviews with 45 experts from administration, medicine, blood supply, laboratory services and risk assessment took place using a multi-level sampling framework in the aftermath of the recall. These experts either directly dealt with the withdrawal or were involved in the management of the blood supply at the national level. Data from these interviews were coded in NVivo for analysis and interpretation. Analytically, data were interpreted to derive typifications to relate interview responses to risk management heuristics. While all those interviewed agreed on the importance of patient safety, differences in the ways in which the risk was contextualized and explicated were discerned. Risk was seen in terms of patient safety, liability or precaution. These different risk logics are illustrated by selected quotations. Expert assessments did not fully converge and it is possible that these different risk logics and discourses may affect the risk management process more generally, although not necessarily in a negative way. Patient safety is not to be compromised but management of blood risk in publicly funded systems may vary. We suggest ways of managing blood risk using formal and safety case approaches.

  3. Do expert assessments converge? An exploratory case study of evaluating and managing a blood supply risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arnold Emmy

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Examining professional assessments of a blood product recall/withdrawal and its implications for risk and public health, the paper introduces ideas about perceptions of minimal risk and its management. It also describes the context of publicly funded blood transfusion in Canada and the withdrawal event that is the basis of this study. Methods Interviews with 45 experts from administration, medicine, blood supply, laboratory services and risk assessment took place using a multi-level sampling framework in the aftermath of the recall. These experts either directly dealt with the withdrawal or were involved in the management of the blood supply at the national level. Data from these interviews were coded in NVivo for analysis and interpretation. Analytically, data were interpreted to derive typifications to relate interview responses to risk management heuristics. Results While all those interviewed agreed on the importance of patient safety, differences in the ways in which the risk was contextualized and explicated were discerned. Risk was seen in terms of patient safety, liability or precaution. These different risk logics are illustrated by selected quotations. Conclusions Expert assessments did not fully converge and it is possible that these different risk logics and discourses may affect the risk management process more generally, although not necessarily in a negative way. Patient safety is not to be compromised but management of blood risk in publicly funded systems may vary. We suggest ways of managing blood risk using formal and safety case approaches.

  4. 76 FR 63308 - Data and Data Needs To Advance Risk Assessment for Emerging Infectious Diseases Relevant to Blood...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-10-12

    ...] Data and Data Needs To Advance Risk Assessment for Emerging Infectious Diseases Relevant to Blood and... Needs to Advance Risk Assessment for Emerging Infectious Diseases Relevant to Blood and Blood Products... an important tool for evaluating the risks associated with new emerging infectious diseases (EIDs...

  5. Psychometric properties of the Blood-borne Virus Transmission Risk Assessment Questionnaire (BBV-TRAQ).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fry, Craig L; Lintzeris, Nick

    2003-02-01

    To develop a standard measure of blood-borne virus transmission risk behaviour, and examine the underlying psychometric properties. The Blood-borne Virus Transmission Risk Assessment Questionnaire (BBV-TRAQ) was developed over three consecutive phases of the original BBV-TRAQ study in adherence to classical scale development procedures, culminating in the recruitment of a development sample of current injecting drug users via convenience and snowball sampling. Needle and syringe programmes (NSPs), medical clinics, alcohol/drug agencies, peer-based and outreach organizations across inner and outer metropolitan Melbourne. Two hundred and nine current injecting drug users. The mean age was 27 years, 68% were male, 65% unemployed, 36% with prison history and 25% in methadone maintenance. BBV-TRAQ items cover specific injecting, sexual and skin penetration risk practices. BBV-TRAQ characteristics were assessed via measures of internal and test-retest reliability; collateral validation; and principal components analyses. The BBV-TRAQ has satisfactory psychometric properties. Internal (a=0.87), test-retest (r=0.84) and inter-observer reliability results were high, suggesting that the instrument provides a reliable measure of BBV risk behaviour and is reliable over time and across interviewers. A principal components analysis with varimax rotation produced a parsimonious factor solution despite modest communality, and indicated that three factors (injecting, sex and skin penetration/hygiene risks) are required to describe BBV risk behaviour. The BBV-TRAQ is reliable and represents the first risk assessment tool to incorporate sufficient coverage of injecting, sex and other skin penetration risk practices to be considered truly content valid. The questionnaire is indicated for use in addictions research, clinical, peer education and BBV risk behaviour surveillance settings.

  6. Assessing the residual risk for transfusion-transmitted infections in the Philippine blood supply.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lam, Hilton Y; Belizario, Vicente Y; Juban, Noel R; Alejandria, Marissa M; Castillo-Carandang, Nina; Arcellana-Nuqui, Elizabeth; Mirasol, Ma Angelina; Cordero, Cynthia P; Sison, Olivia T; Rivera, Adovich S

    2014-09-01

    Due to a USAID-funded study on blood banks, a national policy was instituted in 1994 that set standards for Philippine blood services, promoted voluntary donation, and led to a ban on commercial blood banks. In this follow-up study, we assess the safety of the supply by determining the residual risk for transfusion-transmitted infections (syphilis, hepatitis B and C, HIV). We also identified unsafe facility practices and generated policy recommendations. A 1992 study found that transfusion-ready blood was not safe using the LQAS method (P > 0.05). We found that the 2012 residual risk became 0 to 0.9 percent attributable to the national policy. We noted poor to fair adherence to this policy. We identified unsafe practices such as use of rapid tests and lack of random blood retesting. Training and use of regional networks may improve safety. Despite improvement in safety, facilities complain of funding and logistical issues regarding compliance with the policy.

  7. [Joint application of mathematic models in assessing the residual risk of hepatitis C virus transmitted through blood transfusion].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xun; Jia, Yao; Xie, Yun-zheng; Li, Xiu-mei; Liu, Xiao-ying; Wu, Xiao-fei

    2011-09-01

    The practicable and effective methods for residual risk assessment on transfusion-transmitted disease was to establish the mathematic models. Based on the characteristics of the repeat donors which donated their blood on a regular base, a model of sero-conversion during the interval of donations was established to assess the incidence of the repeat donors. Based on the characteristics of the prevalence in the population, a model of 'prevalence increased with the age of the donor' was established to assess the incidence of those first-time donors. And based on the impact of the windows period through blood screening program, a model of residual risk associated with the incidence and the length of the windows period was established to assess the residual risk of blood transfusion. In this paper, above said 3 kinds of mathematic models were jointly applied to assess the residual risk of hepatitis C virus (HCV) which was transmitted through blood transfusion in Shanghai, based on data from the routine blood collection and screening program. All the anti-HCV unqualified blood donations were confirmed before assessment. Results showed that the residual risk of HCV transmitted through blood transfusion during Jan. 1(st), 2007 to Dec. 31(st), 2008 in Shanghai was 1:101 000. Data showed that the results of residual risk assessment with mathematic models was valuable. The residual risk of transfusion-transmitted HCV in Shanghai was at a safe level, according to the results in this paper.

  8. Central hemodynamics in risk assessment strategies: additive value over and above brachial blood pressure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yannoutsos, Alexandra; Rinaldi, Elisa R; Zhang, Yi; Protogerou, Athanassios D; Safar, Michel E; Blacher, Jacques

    2015-01-01

    Although the clinical relevance of brachial blood pressure (BP) measurement for cardiovascular (CV) risk stratification is nowadays widely accepted, this approach can nevertheless present several limitations. Pulse pressure (PP) amplification accounts for the notable increase in PP from central to peripheral arterial sites. Target organs are more greatly exposed to central hemodynamic changes than peripheral organs. The pathophysiological significance of local BP pulsatility, which has a role in the pathogenesis of target organ damage in both the macro- and the microcirculation, may therefore not be accurately captured by brachial BP as traditionally evaluated with cuff measurements. The predictive value of central systolic BP and PP over brachial BP for major clinical outcomes has been demonstrated in the general population, in elderly adults and in patients at high CV risk, irrespective of the invasive or non-invasive methods used to assess central BP. Aortic stiffness, timing and intensity of wave reflections, and cardiac performance appear as major factors influencing central PP. Great emphasis has been placed on the role of aortic stiffness, disturbed arterial wave reflections and their intercorrelation in the pathophysiological mechanisms of CV diseases as well as on their capacity to predict target organ damage and clinical events. Comorbidities and age-related changes, together with gender-related specificities of arterial and cardiac parameters, are known to affect the predictive ability of central hemodynamics on individual CV risk.

  9. BLOOD DOPING AND RISKS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Goran Vasić

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Doping is the way in which athletes misuse of chemicals and other types of medical interventions (eg, blood replacement, try to get ahead in the results of other athletes or their performance at the expense of their own health. The aim of this work is the analysis of blood doping and the display of negative consequences that this way of increasing capabilities brings. Method: The methodological work is done descriptively. Results: Even in 1972 at the Stockholm Institute for gymnastics and sport, first Dr. Bjorn Ekblom started having blood doping. Taken from the blood, athletes through centifuge separating red blood cells from blood plasma, which is after a month of storage in the fridge, every athlete back into the bloodstream. Tests aerobic capacity thereafter showed that the concerned athletes can run longer on average for 25% of the treadmill than before. Discussion: Blood doping carries with it serious risks, excessive amount of red cells “thickens the blood,” increased hematocrit, which reduces the heart’s ability to pump blood to the periphery. All this makes it difficult for blood to flow through blood vessels, and there is a great danger that comes to a halt in the circulation, which can cause cardiac arrest, stroke, pulmonary edema, and other complications that can be fatal.

  10. Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    How the EPA conducts risk assessment to protect human health and the environment. Several assessments are included with the guidelines, models, databases, state-based RSL Tables, local contacts and framework documents used to perform these assessments.

  11. Analysis of uranium intake, risk assessments uranium content in blood and urine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mukesh Kumar; Prasher, Sangeeta; Singh, Surinder

    2015-01-01

    Bathinda district of Punjab is in light since the last few years because of the high mortality rate due to cancer. In order to explore the possibility of uranium as one of the causes for cancer an attempt has been made to estimate the level of uranium in the environmental samples viz. soil, water, food items and to correlate it with that in the blood and urine of the cancer patients and the normal persons of the area. The fission track technique has been employed for such studies. Though the uranium content in soil is normal and close to the world average, the uranium values in most of the water samples exceed the recommended safe limits. The cancer risk estimate from drinking of uranium contaminated water during the life time of sixty year is very high. The daily intake of Uranium for the population of these villages including the drinking water has also been estimated using the daily intake of these foodstuffs recommended by WHO and is found to exceed the typical world wide dietary intake of 0.9-4.5 μg/day. The concentration of uranium in urine and blood is found higher in cancer patients, whereas the urine excretion of uranium is lower in the cancer patients compared to the normal persons. (author)

  12. PP13, Maternal ABO Blood Groups and the Risk Assessment of Pregnancy Complications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Than, Nandor Gabor; Romero, Roberto; Meiri, Hamutal; Erez, Offer; Xu, Yi; Tarquini, Federica; Barna, Laszlo; Szilagyi, Andras; Ackerman, Ron; Sammar, Marei; Fule, Tibor; Karaszi, Katalin; Kovalszky, Ilona; Dong, Zhong; Kim, Chong Jai; Zavodszky, Peter; Papp, Zoltan; Gonen, Ron

    2011-01-01

    Background Placental Protein 13 (PP13), an early biomarker of preeclampsia, is a placenta-specific galectin that binds beta-galactosides, building-blocks of ABO blood-group antigens, possibly affecting its bioavailability in blood. Methods and Findings We studied PP13-binding to erythrocytes, maternal blood-group effect on serum PP13 and its performance as a predictor of preeclampsia and intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR). Datasets of maternal serum PP13 in Caucasian (n = 1078) and Hispanic (n = 242) women were analyzed according to blood groups. In vivo, in vitro and in silico PP13-binding to ABO blood-group antigens and erythrocytes were studied by PP13-immunostainings of placental tissue-microarrays, flow-cytometry of erythrocyte-bound PP13, and model-building of PP13 - blood-group H antigen complex, respectively. Women with blood group AB had the lowest serum PP13 in the first trimester, while those with blood group B had the highest PP13 throughout pregnancy. In accordance, PP13-binding was the strongest to blood-group AB erythrocytes and weakest to blood-group B erythrocytes. PP13-staining of maternal and fetal erythrocytes was revealed, and a plausible molecular model of PP13 complexed with blood-group H antigen was built. Adjustment of PP13 MoMs to maternal ABO blood group improved the prediction accuracy of first trimester maternal serum PP13 MoMs for preeclampsia and IUGR. Conclusions ABO blood group can alter PP13-bioavailability in blood, and it may also be a key determinant for other lectins' bioavailability in the circulation. The adjustment of PP13 MoMs to ABO blood group improves the predictive accuracy of this test. PMID:21799738

  13. PP13, maternal ABO blood groups and the risk assessment of pregnancy complications.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nandor Gabor Than

    Full Text Available Placental Protein 13 (PP13, an early biomarker of preeclampsia, is a placenta-specific galectin that binds beta-galactosides, building-blocks of ABO blood-group antigens, possibly affecting its bioavailability in blood.We studied PP13-binding to erythrocytes, maternal blood-group effect on serum PP13 and its performance as a predictor of preeclampsia and intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR. Datasets of maternal serum PP13 in Caucasian (n = 1078 and Hispanic (n = 242 women were analyzed according to blood groups. In vivo, in vitro and in silico PP13-binding to ABO blood-group antigens and erythrocytes were studied by PP13-immunostainings of placental tissue-microarrays, flow-cytometry of erythrocyte-bound PP13, and model-building of PP13--blood-group H antigen complex, respectively. Women with blood group AB had the lowest serum PP13 in the first trimester, while those with blood group B had the highest PP13 throughout pregnancy. In accordance, PP13-binding was the strongest to blood-group AB erythrocytes and weakest to blood-group B erythrocytes. PP13-staining of maternal and fetal erythrocytes was revealed, and a plausible molecular model of PP13 complexed with blood-group H antigen was built. Adjustment of PP13 MoMs to maternal ABO blood group improved the prediction accuracy of first trimester maternal serum PP13 MoMs for preeclampsia and IUGR.ABO blood group can alter PP13-bioavailability in blood, and it may also be a key determinant for other lectins' bioavailability in the circulation. The adjustment of PP13 MoMs to ABO blood group improves the predictive accuracy of this test.

  14. Invasively Measured Aortic Systolic Blood Pressure and Office Systolic Blood Pressure in Cardiovascular Risk Assessment: A Prospective Cohort Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Laugesen, Esben; Knudsen, Søren T; Hansen, Klavs W

    2016-01-01

    Aortic systolic blood pressure (BP) represents the hemodynamic cardiac and cerebral burden more directly than office systolic BP. Whether invasively measured aortic systolic BP confers additional prognostic value beyond office BP remains debated. In this study, office systolic BP and invasively......) and with myocardial infarction in patients without diabetes mellitus (hazard ratio, 1.07 [95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.12] and 1.05 [95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.10], respectively). In models including both BP measurements, aortic BP lost statistical significance and aortic BP did not confer improvement...

  15. Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kinchin, G.H.

    1983-01-01

    After defining risk and introducing the concept of individual and societal risk, the author considers each of these, restricting considerations to risk of death. Some probabilities of death arising from various causes are quoted, and attention drawn to the care necessary in making comparisons between sets of data and to the distinction between voluntary and involuntary categories and between early and delayed deaths. The presentation of information on societal risk is discussed and examples given. The history of quantified risk assessment is outlined, particularly related to the nuclear industry, the process of assessing risk discussed: identification of hazard causes, the development of accident chains and the use of event trees, the evaluation of probability through the collection of data and their use with fault trees, and the assessment of consequences of hazards in terms of fatalities. Reference is made to the human element and common-made failures, and to studies supporting the development of reliability assessment techniques. Acceptance criteria are discussed for individual and societal risk in the nuclear field, and it is shown that proposed criteria lead to risks conservative by comparison with risks from day-to-day accidents and other potentially hazardous industries. (U.K.)

  16. Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Hrdová, Edita

    2012-01-01

    This diploma thesis is focused on companies risk evaluation before endorsement of Loan deriving from business relationships. The aim of this thesis is not only to describe individual steps of risk assessment, but also perfom analysis of particular companies based on available data, i.e. Balance sheet, Profit and Loss statement and external rating and after that propose solution for each company. My analysis will be based on theoretical knowledge, further on experience related to my job role a...

  17. Risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Liselotte; Rasmussen, Kirsten; Elsass, Peter

    2010-01-01

    International research suggests that using formalized risk assessment methods may improve the predictive validity of professionals' predictions of risk of future violence. This study presents data on forensic psychiatric patients discharged from a forensic unit in Denmark in year 2001-2002 (n=107...... and the individual dynamic items strengthen the use of this scheme in clinical practice. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved) (journal abstract)...

  18. Ambulatory Blood Pressure Monitoring (ABPM) as the reference standard for diagnosis of hypertension and assessment of vascular risk in adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hermida, Ramón C; Smolensky, Michael H; Ayala, Diana E; Portaluppi, Francesco

    2015-01-01

    New information has become available since the ISC, AAMCC, and SECAC released their first extensive guidedelines to improve the diagnosis and treatment of adult arterial hypertension. A critical assessment of evidence and a comparison of what international guidelines now propose are the basis for the following statements, which update the recommendations first issued in 2013. Office blood pressure (BP) measurements should no longer be considered to be the "gold standard" for the diagnosis of hypertension and assessment of cardiovascular risk. Relying on office BP, even when supplemented with at-home wake-time self-measurements, to identify high-risk individuals, disregarding circadian BP patterning and asleep BP level, leads to potential misclassification of 50% of all evaluated persons. Accordingly, ambulatory BP monitoring is the recommended reference standard for the diagnosis of true hypertension and accurate assessment of cardiovascular risk in all adults ≥18 yrs of age, regardless of whether office BP is normal or elevated. Asleep systolic BP mean is the most significant independent predictor of cardiovascular events. The sleep-time relative SBP decline adds prognostic value to the statistical model that already includes the asleep systolic BP mean and corrected for relevant confounding variables. Accordingly, the asleep systolic BP mean is the recommended protocol to diagnose hypertension, assess cardiovascular risk, and predict cardiovascular event-free interval. In men, and in the absence of compelling clinical conditions, reference thresholds for diagnosing hypertension are 120/70 mmHg for the asleep systolic/diastolic BP means derived from ambulatory BP monitoring. However, in women, in the absence of complicating co-morbidities, the same thresholds are lower by 10/5 mmHg, i.e., 110/65 mmHg for the asleep means. In high-risk patients, including those diagnosed with diabetes or chronic kidney disease, and/or those having experienced past

  19. ABO blood group and risk of cancer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vasan, Senthil K; Hwang, Jinseub; Rostgaard, Klaus

    2016-01-01

    groups and site-specific cancer risk in a large cohort of healthy blood donors from Sweden and Denmark. RESULTS: A total of 1.6 million donors were followed over 27 million person-years (20 million in Sweden and 7 million in Denmark). We observed 119,584 cancer cases. Blood groups A, AB and B were......INTRODUCTION: The associations between ABO blood group and cancer risk have been studied repeatedly, but results have been variable. Consistent associations have only been reported for pancreatic and gastric cancers. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We estimated associations between different ABO blood...... associated either with increased or decreased risk of cancer at 13 anatomical sites (p≤0.05), compared to blood group O. Consistent with assessment using a false discovery rate approach, significant associations with ABO blood group were observed for cancer of the pancreas, breast, and upper gastrointestinal...

  20. Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1983-01-01

    The report is in sections, entitled: preface; summary and conclusions; introduction (historical and organizational); estimating engineering risks (techniques of risk estimation and forms of expression of risk); laboratory experiments for estimation of biological risks; estimation of risk from observations on man (travel, medical procedures; occupations; sport); the perception of risks; (as an example of attitudes towards a single hazard, studies of nuclear power are considered among other topics in this section); risk management (estimation; perception; acceptability, analysis of risk, costs and benefits; safety standards; decision-making process; possible guidelines). (U.K.)

  1. Hypertension Canada's 2016 Canadian Hypertension Education Program Guidelines for Blood Pressure Measurement, Diagnosis, Assessment of Risk, Prevention, and Treatment of Hypertension.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leung, Alexander A; Nerenberg, Kara; Daskalopoulou, Stella S; McBrien, Kerry; Zarnke, Kelly B; Dasgupta, Kaberi; Cloutier, Lyne; Gelfer, Mark; Lamarre-Cliche, Maxime; Milot, Alain; Bolli, Peter; Tremblay, Guy; McLean, Donna; Tobe, Sheldon W; Ruzicka, Marcel; Burns, Kevin D; Vallée, Michel; Prasad, G V Ramesh; Lebel, Marcel; Feldman, Ross D; Selby, Peter; Pipe, Andrew; Schiffrin, Ernesto L; McFarlane, Philip A; Oh, Paul; Hegele, Robert A; Khara, Milan; Wilson, Thomas W; Penner, S Brian; Burgess, Ellen; Herman, Robert J; Bacon, Simon L; Rabkin, Simon W; Gilbert, Richard E; Campbell, Tavis S; Grover, Steven; Honos, George; Lindsay, Patrice; Hill, Michael D; Coutts, Shelagh B; Gubitz, Gord; Campbell, Norman R C; Moe, Gordon W; Howlett, Jonathan G; Boulanger, Jean-Martin; Prebtani, Ally; Larochelle, Pierre; Leiter, Lawrence A; Jones, Charlotte; Ogilvie, Richard I; Woo, Vincent; Kaczorowski, Janusz; Trudeau, Luc; Petrella, Robert J; Hiremath, Swapnil; Drouin, Denis; Lavoie, Kim L; Hamet, Pavel; Fodor, George; Grégoire, Jean C; Lewanczuk, Richard; Dresser, George K; Sharma, Mukul; Reid, Debra; Lear, Scott A; Moullec, Gregory; Gupta, Milan; Magee, Laura A; Logan, Alexander G; Harris, Kevin C; Dionne, Janis; Fournier, Anne; Benoit, Geneviève; Feber, Janusz; Poirier, Luc; Padwal, Raj S; Rabi, Doreen M

    2016-05-01

    Hypertension Canada's Canadian Hypertension Education Program Guidelines Task Force provides annually updated, evidence-based recommendations to guide the diagnosis, assessment, prevention, and treatment of hypertension. This year, we present 4 new recommendations, as well as revisions to 2 previous recommendations. In the diagnosis and assessment of hypertension, automated office blood pressure, taken without patient-health provider interaction, is now recommended as the preferred method of measuring in-office blood pressure. Also, although a serum lipid panel remains part of the routine laboratory testing for patients with hypertension, fasting and nonfasting collections are now considered acceptable. For individuals with secondary hypertension arising from primary hyperaldosteronism, adrenal vein sampling is recommended for those who are candidates for potential adrenalectomy. With respect to the treatment of hypertension, a new recommendation that has been added is for increasing dietary potassium to reduce blood pressure in those who are not at high risk for hyperkalemia. Furthermore, in selected high-risk patients, intensive blood pressure reduction to a target systolic blood pressure ≤ 120 mm Hg should be considered to decrease the risk of cardiovascular events. Finally, in hypertensive individuals with uncomplicated, stable angina pectoris, either a β-blocker or calcium channel blocker may be considered for initial therapy. The specific evidence and rationale underlying each of these recommendations are discussed. Hypertension Canada's Canadian Hypertension Education Program Guidelines Task Force will continue to provide annual updates. Copyright © 2016 Canadian Cardiovascular Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. White blood cell and platelet count as adjuncts to standard clinical evaluation for risk assessment in patients at low probability of acute aortic syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morello, Fulvio; Cavalot, Giulia; Giachino, Francesca; Tizzani, Maria; Nazerian, Peiman; Carbone, Federica; Pivetta, Emanuele; Mengozzi, Giulio; Moiraghi, Corrado; Lupia, Enrico

    2017-08-01

    Pre-test probability assessment is key in the approach to suspected acute aortic syndromes (AASs). However, most patients with AAS-compatible symptoms are classified at low probability, warranting further evaluation for decision on aortic imaging. White blood cell count, platelet count and fibrinogen explore pathophysiological pathways mobilized in AASs and are routinely assayed in the workup of AASs. However, the diagnostic performance of these variables for AASs, alone and as a bundle, is unknown. We tested the hypothesis that white blood cell count, platelet count and/or fibrinogen at presentation may be applied as additional tools to standard clinical evaluation for pre-test risk assessment in patients at low probability of AAS. This was a retrospective observational study conducted on consecutive patients managed in our Emergency Department from 2009 to 2014 for suspected AAS. White blood cell count, platelet count and fibrinogen were assayed during evaluation in the Emergency Department. The final diagnosis was obtained by computed tomography angiography. The pre-test probability of AAS was defined according to guidelines. Of 1210 patients with suspected AAS, 1006 (83.1%) were classified at low probability, and 271 (22.4%) were diagnosed with AAS. Within patients at low probability, presence of at least one alteration among white blood cell count >9*10 3 /µl, platelet count probability, white blood cell count >9*10 3 /µl and platelet count probability, the estimated risk of AAS based on the number of alterations amongst white blood cell count >9*10 3 /µl and platelet count probability to fine-tune risk assessment of AAS.

  3. Introduction to risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raina, V.M.

    2002-01-01

    This paper gives an introduction to risk assessment. It discusses the basic concepts of risk assessment, nuclear risk assessment process and products, the role of risk assessment products in nuclear safety assurance, the relationship between risk assessment and other safety analysis and risk assessment and safe operating envelope

  4. Challenges in Risk Assessment: Quantitative Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Uyttendaele, Mieke; De Meulenaer, Bruno

    2016-01-01

    The process of risk analysis consists out of three components, risk assessment, risk management and risk communication. These components are internationally well spread by Codex Alimentarius Commission as being the basis for setting science based standards, criteria on food safety hazards, e.g. setting maximum limits of mycotoxins in foodstuffs. However, the technical component risk assessment is hard to elaborate and to understand. Key in a risk assessment is the translation of biological or...

  5. Risk factors for complications in donors at first and repeat whole blood donation: a cohort study with assessment of the impact on donor return.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiersum-Osselton, Johanna C; Marijt-van der Kreek, Tanneke; Brand, Anneke; Veldhuizen, Ingrid; van der Bom, Johanna G; de Kort, Wim

    2014-01-01

    First-time donation is among recognised risk factors for vasovagal reactions to blood donation and reactions are known to reduce donor return. We assessed associations between potential risk factors and vasovagal reactions and needle-related complications in first-time whole blood donation in comparison to repeat donation and analysed the impact of complications on donor return. We performed a cohort study on whole blood donations in The Netherlands from 1/1/2010 to 31/12/2010 using data extracted from the blood service information system. Donation data up to 31/12/2011 were used to ascertain donor return. In 2010 28,786 donors made first whole blood donations and there were 522,958 repeat donations. Vasovagal reactions occurred in 3.9% of first donations by males and 3.5% of first donations by females compared to in 0.2% and 0.6%, respectively, of repeat donations. Associations of vasovagal reactions with other factors including age, body weight, systolic and diastolic blood pressure were similar in first-time and repeat donors. Needle-related complications occurred in 0.2% of male and 0.5% of female first-time donations and in 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively, of repeat donations. Among first-time donors, the return rate within 1 year was 82% following an uncomplicated first donation, but 55% and 61% following vasovagal reactions and needle-related complications, respectively; the corresponding percentages among repeat donors were 86%, 58% and 82%. Among first-time donors, females suffered less than males from vasovagal reactions. Other risk factors had similar associations among first-time and repeat donors. Vasovagal reactions and needle-related complications in both first-time and repeat donors are followed by reduced donor return.

  6. Toxicity of Pb-contaminated soil to Japanese quail (Coturnix japonica) and the use of the blood-dietary Pb slope in risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beyer, W. Nelson; Chen, Yu; Henry, Paula; May, Thomas; Mosby, David; Rattner, Barnett A.; Shearn-Bochsler, Valerie I.; Sprague, Daniel; Weber, John

    2014-01-01

    This study relates tissue concentrations and toxic effects of Pb in Japanese quail (Coturnix japonica) to the dietary exposure of soil-borne Pb associated with mining and smelting. From 0% to 12% contaminated soil, by weight, was added to 5 experimental diets (0.12 to 382 mg Pb/kg, dry wt) and fed to the quail for 6 weeks. Benchmark doses associated with a 50% reduction in delta-aminolevulinic acid dehydratase activity were 0.62 mg Pb/kg in the blood, dry wt, and 27 mg Pb/kg in the diet. Benchmark doses associated with a 20% increase in the concentration of erythrocyte protoporphyrin were 2.7 mg Pb/kg in the blood and 152 mg Pb/kg in the diet. The quail showed no other signs of toxicity (histopathological lesions, alterations in plasma–testosterone concentration, and body and organ weights). The relation of the blood Pb concentration to the soil Pb concentration was linear, with a slope of 0.013 mg Pb/kg of blood (dry wt) divided by mg Pb/kg of diet. We suggest that this slope is potentially useful in ecological risk assessments on birds in the same way that the intake slope factor is an important parameter in risk assessments of children exposed to Pb. The slope may also be used in a tissue-residue approach as an additional line of evidence in ecological risk assessment, supplementary to an estimate of hazard based on dietary toxicity reference values.

  7. Flow cytometry of nucleated red blood cells used as monitoring technique for aquatic risk assessment. A review.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bratosin D.

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available During the last decades anthropogenic factors led to a significant enhancement of pollutants in aquatic environment and for several years, chemicals analysis has been commonly employed. These techniques cannot detect and quantify many environmental phenomena such as bioavailability, bioaccumulation and synergistic effects. For these reasons, many investigations for evaluating the effects of xenobiotic on organisms use in vitro or in vivo bioassays. The bioassays give a global response for all chemicals present in the environment and these represent one of the best ways to estimate the risk assessment of pollutants in environment for monitoring. For assessing cytotoxicity or ecotoxicity of pollutants (heavy metals, nanoparticles, etc. and to assess aquatic pollution degree and biomonitoring of Danube River and Danube Delta, we developed a new experimental cell system based on the apoptosis of nucleated erythrocytes from fishes and batrachians which are directly exposed to pollutants absorbed by different ways. Despite their structural simplicity, the erythrocytes of lower vertebrates preserve nucleus and mitochondria, both the sensors of the programmed cell death (PCD machinery to develop an apoptosis phenomenon. Our proposed bioassays which are based on the apoptosis phenomenon as induced biomarker by pollutants on fish or amphibians erythrocytes, evidenced by flow cytometry (apoptosis/necrosis discriminated by FITC-annexin-V labeling/PI and cellular viability measured with calcein-AM method could be rapid and very sensitive tests for in laboratory aquatic risk assessment and biomonitoring. Standardization and application of these tests will surely provide the opportunity of their use easily in ecotoxicological laboratories, biomonitoring of large river basins such as the Danube River Basin and will be also able deliver information on fish as a food product.

  8. Hepatitis Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... please visit this page: About CDC.gov . Hepatitis Risk Assessment Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Viral Hepatitis. Are you at risk? Take this 5 minute Hepatitis Risk Assessment developed ...

  9. Dutch Risk Assessment tools

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Venema, A.

    2015-01-01

    The ‘Risico- Inventarisatie- en Evaluatie-instrumenten’ is the name for the Dutch risk assessment (RA) tools. A RA tool can be used to perform a risk assessment including an evaluation of the identified risks. These tools were among the first online risk assessment tools developed in Europe. The

  10. Reliability of blood pressure measurement and cardiovascular risk prediction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Hoeven, N.V.

    2016-01-01

    High blood pressure is one of the leading risk factors for cardiovascular disease, but difficult to reliably assess because there are many factors which can influence blood pressure including stress, exercise or illness. The first part of this thesis focuses on possible ways to improve the

  11. Assessment risk of osteoporosis in Chinese people: relationship among body mass index, serum lipid profiles, blood glucose, and bone mineral density

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cui RT

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Rongtao Cui,1 Lin Zhou,2 Zuohong Li,2 Qing Li,2 Zhiming Qi,2 Junyong Zhang3 1Department of Orthopedic and Trauma Surgery, Surgical Research, Duisburg-Essen University Hospital, Essen, Germany; 2Department of Orthopedics, Dalian Central Hospital, Dalian, 3Department of Gastroenterology, Shandong Provincial Hospital, Jinan, People’s Republic of China Objective: The aim of our study was to investigate the relationship among age, sex, body mass index (BMI, serum lipid profiles, blood glucose (BG, and bone mineral density (BMD, making an assessment of the risk of osteoporosis.Materials and methods: A total of 1,035 male and 3,953 female healthy volunteers (aged 41–95 years were recruited by an open invitation. The basic information, including age, sex, height, weight, waistline, hipline, menstrual cycle, and medical history, were collected by a questionnaire survey and physical examination. Serum lipid profiles, BG, postprandial blood glucose, and glycosylated hemoglobin were obtained after 12 hours fasting. BMD in lumbar spine was measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry scanning.Results: The age-adjusted BMD in females was significantly lower than in males. With aging, greater differences of BMD distribution exist in elderly females than in males (P<0.001, and the fastigium of bone mass loss was in the age range from 51 to 55 in females and from 61 to 65 years in males. After adjustment for sex, there were significant differences in BMD among BMI-stratified groups in both males and females. The subjects with a BMI of <18.5 had a higher incidence of osteoporosis than BMI ≥18.5 in both sexes. BMD in type 2 diabetes mellitus with a BG of >7.0 mmol/L was lower than in people with BG of ≤7.0 mmol/L (P<0.001. People with serum high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels of ≥1.56 mmol/L had a greater prevalence of osteoporosis compared with high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ≤1.55 mmol/L. Logistic regression with odds ratios showed that

  12. Use of an Integrated Tool for Interpretation of Blood Glucose Data Improves Correctness of Glycemic Risk Assessment in Individuals With Type 1 and Type 2 Diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parkin, Christopher G; Schwenke, Stephanie; Ossege, Anna Katharina; Gruchmann, Torsten

    2017-01-01

    Manufacturers now incorporate blood glucose (bG) value interpretation tools into their monitoring systems; however, usability of these support tools has not been well studied. We evaluated the utility and perceived benefits of support tool use by individuals with type 1 (T1D) and type 2 diabetes (T2D). This 3-arm, randomized, simulation study assessed the impact of use of bG value interpretation support tools on participants' ability to correctly interpret bG values, using 1 of 3 tools: a new tool that uses colored scales with target range indicator (TRI), Colors and Smiley icons (already available). Participants assessed 50 bG values without use of any tool and repeated the assessment using 1 of the 3 tool configurations. Changes in percentage of correct responses when using a support tool and user perceptions were assessed. Data sets from 140 participants were analyzed. Increases in correct responses were seen in all study groups but most notably in the TRI group (26%, P .627). Most TRI users felt confident (94%), agreed the tool will help them identify high and low values (96%) and will help them to make correct insulin dosage decisions (80%). Use of the TRI significantly increases users' ability to correctly and confidently determine their glycemic risk when self-monitoring bG levels. This suggests the tool may offer clinical value to individuals with T1D and T2D.

  13. Assessment of cardiovascular risk.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2010-10-01

    Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most common cause of death worldwide. Usually atherosclerosis is caused by the combined effects of multiple risk factors. For this reason, most guidelines on the prevention of CVD stress the assessment of total CVD risk. The most intensive risk factor modification can then be directed towards the individuals who will derive the greatest benefit. To assist the clinician in calculating the effects of these multiple interacting risk factors, a number of risk estimation systems have been developed. This review address several issues regarding total CVD risk assessment: Why should total CVD risk be assessed? What risk estimation systems are available? How well do these systems estimate risk? What are the advantages and disadvantages of the current systems? What are the current limitations of risk estimation systems and how can they be resolved? What new developments have occurred in CVD risk estimation?

  14. GM Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparrow, Penny A. C.

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

  15. Strategic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derleth, Jason; Lobia, Marcus

    2009-01-01

    This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.

  16. Risk assessment of accidental exposure of surgeons to blood during orthopedic surgery. Are we safe in surgical gloves?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dariusz Timler

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Aim. To analyze tears in sterile surgical gloves used by surgeons in the operating theatre of the Trauma and Orthopedic Surgery Department, Copernicus Memorial Hospital, Łódź, Poland Materials and Method. This study analyzes tears in sterile surgical gloves used by surgeons by ICD-9 and ICD-10 codes. 1,404 gloves were collected from 581 surgical procedures. All gloves were tested immediately following surgery using the test method described in Standard EN455–1 (each glove was inflated with 1,000 ± 50 ml of water and observed for leaks for 2–3 min.. Results. Analysis of tears took into consideration the role of medical personnel (operator, first assistant, second assistant during surgical procedure, the type of procedure according to ICD-9 and ICD-10 codes, and the elective or emergency nature of the procedure. The results of the study show that these factors have a significant influence on the risk of glove tears. Significant differences were observed in tear frequency and tear location depending on the function performed by the surgeon during the procedure. Conclusion. The study proved that the role performed by the surgeon during the procedure (operator, first assistant, second assistant has a significant influence on the risk of glove tearing. The role in the procedure determines exposure to glove tears. Implementing a double gloving procedure in surgical procedures or using single gloves characterized by higher tear resistance should be considered.

  17. Ecological risk assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Suter, Glenn W; Barnthouse, L. W. (Lawrence W)

    2007-01-01

    Ecological risk assessment is commonly applied to the regulation of chemicals, the remediation of contaminated sites, the monitoring of importation of exotic organisms, the management of watersheds...

  18. Risk Assessment Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

  19. Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caskey, Susan Adele [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Gaudioso, Jennifer M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Wagner, Stefan M. [Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, MB (Canada). Canadian Science Centre for Human and Animal Health (CSCHAH); Shigematsu, Mika [National Inst. of Infectious Diseases (NIID), Tokyo (Japan); Risi, George [Infectious Disease Specialists, P.C, Missoula, MT (United States); Kozlovac, Joe [US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA)., Beltsville, MD (United States); Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke [Statens Serum Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Prat, Esmeralda [Bayer CropScience, Monheim am Rhein (Germany)

    2010-10-01

    Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.

  20. Offshore risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Vinnem, Jan-Erik

    2014-01-01

      Offshore Risk Assessment was the first book to deal with quantified risk assessment (QRA) as applied specifically to offshore installations and operations. Risk assessment techniques have been used for more than three decades in the offshore oil and gas industry, and their use is set to expand increasingly as the industry moves into new areas and faces new challenges in older regions.   This updated and expanded third edition has been informed by a major R&D program on offshore risk assessment in Norway and summarizes research from 2006 to the present day. Rooted with a thorough discussion of risk metrics and risk analysis methodology,  subsequent chapters are devoted to analytical approaches to escalation, escape, evacuation and rescue analysis of safety and emergency systems.   Separate chapters analyze the main hazards of offshore structures: fire, explosion, collision, and falling objects as well as structural and marine hazards. Risk mitigation and control are discussed, as well as an illustrat...

  1. Operational risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKim, Vicky L

    2017-06-01

    In the world of risk management, which encompasses the business continuity disciplines, many types of risk require evaluation. Financial risk is most often the primary focus, followed by product and market risks. Another critical area, which typically lacks a thorough review or may be overlooked, is operational risk. This category encompasses many risk exposure types including those around building structures and systems, environmental issues, nature, neighbours, clients, regulatory compliance, network, data security and so on. At times, insurance carriers will assess internal hazards, but seldom do these assessments include more than a cursory look at other types of operational risk. In heavily regulated environments, risk assessments are required but may not always include thorough assessments of operational exposures. Vulnerabilities may linger or go unnoticed, only to become the catalyst for a business disruption at a later time, some of which are so severe that business recovery becomes nearly impossible. Businesses may suffer loss of clients as the result of a prolonged disruption of services. Comprehensive operational risk assessments can assist in identifying such vulnerabilities, exposures and threats so that the risk can be minimised or removed. This paper lays out how an assessment of this type can be successfully conducted.

  2. Risk assessment [Chapter 9

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dennis S. Ojima; Louis R. Iverson; Brent L. Sohngen; James M. Vose; Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke; David L. Peterson; Jeremy S. Littell; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Gary W. Yohe; Megan M. Friggens

    2014-01-01

    What is "risk" in the context of climate change? How can a "risk-based framework" help assess the effects of climate change and develop adaptation priorities? Risk can be described by the likelihood of an impact occurring and the magnitude of the consequences of the impact (Yohe 2010) (Fig. 9.1). High-magnitude impacts are always...

  3. Chemical Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    This course is aimed at providing an overview of the fundamental guiding principles and general methods used in chemical risk assessment. Chemical risk assessment is a complex and ever-evolving process. These principles and methods have been organized by the National Research Cou...

  4. Overview of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rimington, J.D.

    1992-01-01

    The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits

  5. Overview of risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rimington, J D [Health and Safety Executive (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits.

  6. State of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Conrad, J.

    1978-03-01

    In view of the growing importance assumed in recent years by scientific work on the calculation, quantification, evaluation and acceptance as well as behavior in the face of risks in general and more specifically, the risks of large industrial plants, the report attempts to provide a survey of the current situation, results and evaluation of this new branch of research, risk assessment. The emphasis of the report is on the basic discussion and criticism of the theoretical and methodological approaches used in the field of risk assessment (section 3). It is concerned above all with - methodical problems of determining and quantifying risks (3.1) - questions of the possibility of risk evaluation and comp arison (3.1, 3.2) - the premises of normative and empirical studies on decision making under risk (3.2, 3.3) - investigations into society's acceptance of risks involved in the introduction of new technologies (3.4) - attempts to combine various aspects of the field of risk assessment in a unified concept (3.5, 3.6, 3.7). Because risk assessment is embedded in the framework of decision theory and technology assessment, it can be implicitly evaluated at a more general level within this framework, as far as its possibilities and weaknesses of method and application are concerned (section 4). Sections 2 and 5 deal with the social context of origin and utilization of risk assessment. Finally, an attempt is made at a summary indicating the possible future development of risk assessment. (orig./HP) [de

  7. Patient caries risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, Svante; Fontana, Margherita

    2009-01-01

    Risk assessment is an essential component in the decision-making process for the correct prevention and management of dental caries. Multiple risk factors and indicators have been proposed as targets in the assessment of risk of future disease, varying sometimes based on the age group at which...... they are targeted. Multiple reviews and systematic reviews are available in the literature on this topic. This chapter focusses primarily on results of reviews based on longitudinal studies required to establish the accuracy of caries risk assessment. These findings demonstrate that there is a strong body...... of evidence to support that caries experience is still, unfortunately, the single best predictor for future caries development. In young children, prediction models which include a variety of risk factors seem to increase the accuracy of the prediction, while the usefulness of additional risk factors...

  8. Micronucleus assay for human peripheral blood lymphocytes as a biomarker of individual sensitivity to assessing radiation health risk in different population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, C.-M.; Jeon, H.-J.; Lee, Y.-S.; Lee, S.-J.; Jin, Y.-H.; Kim, Y.-H.; Kim, T.-W.; Cho, C.-K.

    2003-01-01

    Full text: Our studies were to evaluate micronucleus (MN) assay for human peripheral blood lymphocytes (HPBL) as a biomarker of individual sensitivity to assessing radiation health risk in different population in Korea. Further studied are carried out to provide evidence for the existence of individual variations in age-dependent responses. For the MN assay, HPBLs were irradiated with doses of 0, 1, 2, 4, 8Gy 60 Co γ-rays. Spontaneous frequencies not only vary greatly between individuals, but also working or living areas because of the groups with different lifestyle living in different ecological situation and the reaction to radiation exposure. It was shown that the increased level of spontaneous cell with MN was observed with increased age. The relationship between radiosensitivity and the increased spontaneous level of MN may be in inverse proportion. Age and gender are the most important demographic variables impact on MN index with MN frequencies in female being greater than those in male by a factor of depending on the age group. For both sexes, MN frequency was significantly and positively correlated with age. The main lifestyle factors influencing the MN index in subjects are significantly and positively correlated with smoking in measuring the spontaneous frequencies of micronuclei. The described results show that the genetic damaged rate like MN index in human populations is correlated significantly with age, sex and lifestyle factors. So far, it is evident that with regard to the application of MN assay all future studies to evaluate radiation health risks in different population have to take into account the influence of age, gender, and lifestyle. The results suggested that the MN assay have a high potential to ensure appropriate quality control and standard documentation protocol which can be used to monitor a large population exposed to radiation epidemiologically. We conclude that the determination of individual radiosensitivity with MN assay is

  9. Blood pressure and control of cardiovascular risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Judith A Whitworth

    2005-10-01

    Full Text Available Judith A WhitworthJohn Curtin School of Medical Research, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, AustraliaAbstract: Two key early 20th century notions, the first the primacy of diastolic pressure in determining risk, and the second that hypertension is a discrete disorder, have proved to be incorrect. We now recognize the primacy of systolic pressure as a risk factor for cardiovascular disease and that hypertension is an arbitrary definition. In the early 21st century, we are moving away from a dichotomous approach to risk classification, and away from notions of hypertension and normotension towards an appreciation that blood pressure-related risk is continuous. In parallel, there has been a paradigm shift from a single risk factor approach to comprehensive cardiovascular disease risk prevention. Accordingly, prevention of cardiovascular disease requires a focus on lowering of blood pressure and modification of associated risk factors rather than simply treatment of hypertension. This emphasis is reflected in the World Health Organization (WHO – International Society of Hypertension (ISH 2003 statement on management of hypertension.Keywords: blood pressure, hypertension, cardiovascular risk, treatment

  10. GAR Global Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar

    2015-04-01

    Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.

  11. Sovereign default risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rijken, H.A.; Altman, E.I.

    2013-01-01

    We propose a new approach toward assessing sovereign risk by examining rigorously the health and aggregate default risk of a nation's private corporate sector. Models can be utilised to measure the probability of default of the non-financial sector cumulatively for five years, both as an absolute

  12. Preventing blood transfusion failures: FMEA, an effective assessment method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Najafpour, Zhila; Hasoumi, Mojtaba; Behzadi, Faranak; Mohamadi, Efat; Jafary, Mohamadreza; Saeedi, Morteza

    2017-06-30

    Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) is a method used to assess the risk of failures and harms to patients during the medical process and to identify the associated clinical issues. The aim of this study was to conduct an assessment of blood transfusion process in a teaching general hospital, using FMEA as the method. A structured FMEA was recruited in our study performed in 2014, and corrective actions were implemented and re-evaluated after 6 months. Sixteen 2-h sessions were held to perform FMEA in the blood transfusion process, including five steps: establishing the context, selecting team members, analysis of the processes, hazard analysis, and developing a risk reduction protocol for blood transfusion. Failure modes with the highest risk priority numbers (RPNs) were identified. The overall RPN scores ranged from 5 to 100 among which, four failure modes were associated with RPNs over 75. The data analysis indicated that failures with the highest RPNs were: labelling (RPN: 100), transfusion of blood or the component (RPN: 100), patient identification (RPN: 80) and sampling (RPN: 75). The results demonstrated that mis-transfusion of blood or blood component is the most important error, which can lead to serious morbidity or mortality. Provision of training to the personnel on blood transfusion, knowledge raising on hazards and appropriate preventative measures, as well as developing standard safety guidelines are essential, and must be implemented during all steps of blood and blood component transfusion.

  13. Integrated Assessment of Pharmacological and Nutritional Cardiovascular Risk Management: Blood Pressure Control in the DIAbetes and LifEstyle Cohort Twente (DIALECT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christina M. Gant

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Cardiovascular risk management is an integral part of treatment in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM, and requires pharmacological as well as nutritional management. We hypothesize that a systematic assessment of both pharmacological and nutritional management can identify targets for the improvement of treatment quality. Therefore, we analysed blood pressure (BP management in the DIAbetes and LifEstyle Cohort Twente (DIALECT. DIALECT is an observational cohort from routine diabetes care, performed at the ZGT Hospital (Almelo and Hengelo, The Netherlands. BP was measured for 15 minutes with one minute intervals. Sodium and potassium intake was derived from 24-hour urinary excretion. We determined the adherence to pharmacological and non-pharmacological guidelines in patients with BP on target (BP-OT and BP not on target (BP-NOT. In total, 450 patients were included from August 2009 until January 2016. The mean age was 63 ± 9 years, and the majority was male (58%. In total, 53% had BP-OT. In those with BP-NOT, pharmacological management was suboptimal (zero to two antihypertensive drugs in 62% of patients, and nutritional guideline adherence was suboptimal in 100% of patients (only 8% had a sodium intake on target, 66% had a potassium intake on target, 3% had a sodium-to-potassium ratio on target, and body mass index was <30 kg/m2 in 35%. These data show pharmacological undertreatment and a low adherence to nutritional guidelines. Uncontrolled BP is common in T2DM, and our data show a window of opportunity for improving BP control, especially in nutritional management. To improve treatment quality, we advocate to incorporate the integrated monitoring of nutritional management in quality improvement cycles in routine care.

  14. Chlorine transportation risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lautkaski, Risto; Mankamo, Tuomas.

    1977-02-01

    An assessment has been made on the toxication risk of the population due to the bulk rail transportation of liquid chlorine in Finland. Fourteen typical rail accidents were selected and their probability was estimated using the accident file of the Finnish State Railways. The probability of a chlorine leak was assessed for each type of accident separately using four leak size categories. The assessed leakage probability was dominated by station accidents, especially by collisions of a chlorine tanker and a locomotive. Toxication hazard areas were estimated for the leak categories. A simple model was constructed to describe the centring of the densely populated areas along the railway line. A comparison was made between the obtained risk and some other risks including those due to nuclear reactor accidents. (author)

  15. Assessment of fracture risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanis, John A.; Johansson, Helena; Oden, Anders; McCloskey, Eugene V.

    2009-01-01

    Fractures are a common complication of osteoporosis. Although osteoporosis is defined by bone mineral density at the femoral neck, other sites and validated techniques can be used for fracture prediction. Several clinical risk factors contribute to fracture risk independently of BMD. These include age, prior fragility fracture, smoking, excess alcohol, family history of hip fracture, rheumatoid arthritis and the use of oral glucocorticoids. These risk factors in conjunction with BMD can be integrated to provide estimates of fracture probability using the FRAX tool. Fracture probability rather than BMD alone can be used to fashion strategies for the assessment and treatment of osteoporosis.

  16. Concerning ethical risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boeckle, F.

    1991-01-01

    After a fundamental consideration of the concept of responsibility and 'long-term responsibility' for late sequelae, the problems of an ehtical assessment of risks were illustrated: The concept of risk itself poses three problems - predicting the probability of occurrence, assessing the damage = subjective classification of the degree of damage, determining whether the advantages outweigh the risks. It is not possible to weigh the advantages and risks against each other without assessing the goals and the priorities which have been set. Here ethics is called for, because it concerns itself with the reasonableness of evaluative decisions. Its task is to enable us to become aware of and comprehend our system of values in all of its complexity in reference to real life. Ethics can only fulfill its task if it helps us to adopt an integral perspective, i.e. if it centers on the human being. 'One must assess all technical and economic innovations in terms of whether they are beneficial to the development of mankind on a long-term basis. They are only to be legitimized insofar as they prove themselves to be a means of liberating mankind and contributing to his sense of dignity and identity, as a means of bringing human beings together and encouraging them to care for one another, and as a means of protecting the natural basis of our existence. (orig./HSCH) [de

  17. Integrated Assessment of Pharmacological and Nutritional Cardiovascular Risk Management : Blood Pressure Control in the DIAbetes and LifEstyle Cohort Twente (DIALECT)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gant, Christina M.; Binnenmars, S. Heleen; van den Berg, Else; Bakker, Stephan J. L.; Navis, Gerjan; Laverman, Gozewijn D.

    2017-01-01

    Cardiovascular risk management is an integral part of treatment in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM), and requires pharmacological as well as nutritional management. We hypothesize that a systematic assessment of both pharmacological and nutritional management can identify targets for the improvement

  18. Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Waterhouse, Rachel [Consumer' s Association, Health and Safety Commission (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered.

  19. Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waterhouse, Rachel

    1992-01-01

    The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered

  20. Integral risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chakraborty, S.; Yadigaroglu, G.

    1991-01-01

    The series of lectures which forms the basis of this book and took place in the winter of 1989/90 at the ETH in Zuerich were held for the purpose of discussing the stage of development of our system of ethics in view of the extremely fast pace of technological progress and the risks which accompany it. Legal, psychological and political aspects of the problem were examined, but the emphasis was placed on ethical aspects. The effects which are examined in conventional risk analyses can be considered as a part of the ethical and social aspects involved, and in turn, the consideration of ethical and social aspects can be viewed as an extension of the conventional form of risk analysis. In any case, among risk experts, the significance of ethical and social factors is uncontested, especially as regards activities which can have far-reaching repurcussions. Some objective difficulties interfere with this goal, however: - No generally acknowledged set of ethical values exists. - Cultural influences and personal motives can interfere. - Normally a risk assessment is carried out in reference to individual facilities and within a small, clearly defined framework. Under certain circumstances, generalizations which are made for complete technological systems can lead to completely different conclusions. One contribution deals with integral views of the risks of atomic energy from an ethical and social perspective. (orig.) [de

  1. Blood transfusion: risks and indications | Schoeman | Obstetrics and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Blood transfusions are governed by the Human Tissue Act. Blood users and providers should be aware of their legal and clinical responsibility when using blood and blood products. The safety of blood products cannot be guaranteed and an inherent risk remains when using these products. All efforts should be made to ...

  2. Risk assessment and risk evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niehaus, F.

    1978-01-01

    With the help of results of investigations and model calculations the risk of nuclear energy in routine operation is shown. In this context it is pointed out that the excellent operation results of reactors all over the world have led to the acceptability of risks from local loads no longer being in question. The attention of radiation protection is therefore focused on the emissions of long-living isotopes which collect in the atmosphere. With LWRs the risk of accidents is so minimal that statistical data is, and never will be available. One has to therefore fall back upon the so-called fault tree analyses. On the subject of risk evalution the author referred to a poll in Austria. From the result of this investigation one might conclude that nuclear energy serves as a crystallization point for a discussion of varying concepts for future development. More attention should be paid to this aspect from both sides, in order to objectify the further expansion of this source of energy. (orig./HP) [de

  3. Hazard waste risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hawley, K.A.; Napier, B.A.

    1986-01-01

    Pacific Northwest Laboratory continued to provide technical assistance to the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Operational Safety (OOS) in the area of risk assessment for hazardous and radioactive-mixed waste management. The overall objective is to provide technical assistance to OOS in developing cost-effective risk assessment tools and strategies for bringing DOE facilities into compliance with the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA or Superfund) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA). Major efforts during FY 1985 included (1) completing the modification of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Hazard Ranking System (HRS) and developing training manuals and courses to assist in field office implementation of the modified Hazard Ranking System (mHRS); (2) initiating the development of a system for reviewing field office HRS/mHRS evaluations for appropriate use of data and appropriate application of the methodology; (3) initiating the development of a data base management system to maintain all field office HRS/mHRS scoring sheets and to support the master OOS environmental data base system; (4) developing implementation guidance for Phase I of the DOE CERCLA Program, Installation Assessment; (5) continuing to develop an objective, scientifically based methodology for DOE management to use in establishing priorities for conducting site assessments under Phase II of the DOE CERCLA Program, Confirmation; and (6) participating in developing the DOE response to EPA on the proposed listing of three sites on the National Priorities List

  4. Prospective study of blood metabolites associated with colorectal cancer risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shu, Xiang; Xiang, Yong-Bing; Rothman, Nathaniel; Yu, Danxia; Li, Hong-Lan; Yang, Gong; Cai, Hui; Ma, Xiao; Lan, Qing; Gao, Yu-Tang; Jia, Wei; Shu, Xiao-Ou; Zheng, Wei

    2018-02-26

    Few prospective studies, and none in Asians, have systematically evaluated the relationship between blood metabolites and colorectal cancer risk. We conducted a nested case-control study to search for risk-associated metabolite biomarkers for colorectal cancer in an Asian population using blood samples collected prior to cancer diagnosis. Conditional logistic regression was performed to assess associations of metabolites with cancer risk. In this study, we included 250 incident cases with colorectal cancer and individually matched controls nested within two prospective Shanghai cohorts. We found 35 metabolites associated with risk of colorectal cancer after adjusting for multiple comparisons. Among them, 12 metabolites were glycerophospholipids including nine associated with reduced risk of colorectal cancer and three with increased risk [odds ratios per standard deviation increase of transformed metabolites: 0.31-1.98; p values: 0.002-1.25 × 10 -10 ]. The other 23 metabolites associated with colorectal cancer risk included nine lipids other than glycerophospholipid, seven aromatic compounds, five organic acids and four other organic compounds. After mutual adjustment, nine metabolites remained statistically significant for colorectal cancer. Together, these independently associated metabolites can separate cancer cases from controls with an area under the curve of 0.76 for colorectal cancer. We have identified that dysregulation of glycerophospholipids may contribute to risk of colorectal cancer. © 2018 UICC.

  5. Risk assessment handbook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farmer, F.G.; Jones, J.L.; Hunt, R.N.; Roush, M.L.; Wierman, T.E.

    1990-09-01

    The Probabilistic Risk Assessment Unit at EG ampersand G Idaho has developed this handbook to provide guidance to a facility manager exploring the potential benefit to be gained by performance of a risk assessment properly scoped to meet local needs. This document is designed to help the manager control the resources expended commensurate with the risks being managed and to assure that the products can be used programmatically to support future needs in order to derive maximum beneflt from the resources expended. We present a logical and functional mapping scheme between several discrete phases of project definition to ensure that a potential customer, working with an analyst, is able to define the areas of interest and that appropriate methods are employed in the analysis. In addition the handbook is written to provide a high-level perspective for the analyst. Previously, the needed information was either scattered or existed only in the minds of experienced analysts. By compiling this information and exploring the breadth of knowledge which exists within the members of the PRA Unit, the functional relationships between the customers' needs and the product have been established

  6. 2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA has announced The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OHApril 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!The Annual Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference is a unique meeting where several Government Agencies come together to discuss toxicology and risk assessment issues that are not only of concern to the government, but also to a broader audience including academia and industry. The theme of this year's conference is Emerging Issues and Challenges in Risk Assessment and the preliminary agenda includes: Plenary Sessions and prominent speakers (tentative) include: Issues of Emerging Chemical ContaminantsUncertainty and Variability in Risk Assessment Use of Mechanistic data in IARC evaluationsParallel Sessions:Uncertainty and Variability in Dose-Response Assessment Recent Advances in Toxicity and Risk Assessment of RDX The Use of Epidemiologic Data for Risk Assessment Applications Cumulative Health Risk Assessment:

  7. Assessing complexity of skin blood flow oscillations in response to locally applied heating and pressure in rats: Implications for pressure ulcer risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, Fuyuan; O'Brien, William D.; Jan, Yih-Kuen

    2013-10-01

    The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of local heating on the complexity of skin blood flow oscillations (BFO) under prolonged surface pressure in rats. Eleven Sprague-Dawley rats were studied: 7 rats underwent surface pressure with local heating (△t=10 °C) and 4 rats underwent pressure without heating. A pressure of 700 mmHg was applied to the right trochanter area of rats for 3 h. Skin blood flow was measured using laser Doppler flowmetry. The loading period was divided into nonoverlapping 30 min epochs. For each epoch, multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MDFA) was utilized to compute DFA coefficients and complexity of endothelial related metabolic, neurogenic, and myogenic frequencies of BFO. The results showed that under surface pressure, local heating led to a significant decrease in DFA coefficients of myogenic frequency during the initial epoch of loading period, a sustained decrease in complexity of myogenic frequency, and a significantly higher degree of complexity of metabolic frequency during the later phase of loading period. Surrogate tests showed that the reduction in complexity of myogenic frequency was associated with a loss of nonlinearity whereas increased complexity of metabolic frequency was associated with enhanced nonlinearity. Our results indicate that increased metabolic activity and decreased myogenic response due to local heating manifest themselves not only in magnitudes of metabolic and myogenic frequencies but also in their structural complexity. This study demonstrates the feasibility of using complexity analysis of BFO to monitor the ischemic status of weight-bearing skin and risk of pressure ulcers.

  8. Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) Database

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Veterans Affairs — The Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) database is part of the VA Surgical Quality Improvement Program (VASQIP). This database contains assessments of selected surgical...

  9. Assessment of technical risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jaeger, T A [Bundesanstalt fuer Materialpruefung, Berlin (Germany, F.R.)

    1978-01-01

    The safety of technical systems is so difficult to assess because the concept 'risk' contains technical-scientific factors as well as components of individual and social psychology. Immediate or short-term hazards of human life as i.e. caused by the operation of industrial plants and mediate and thus long-term hazards have to be distinguished. Characteristic for the second hazard groups is the great time-lag before the effect takes place. Thus a causal relationship can be recognized only late and not definitely. Even when the causes have been obviated the effects still show. The development of a systems-analytical model as a basis of decisive processes for the introduction of highly endangered large-scale technologies seems particularly difficult. A starting point for the quantification of the risk can still be seen in the product of the probability of realization and the extent of the damage. Public opinion, however, does not base its evaluations on an objective concept of risk but tends to have an attitude of aversion against great and disastrous accidents. On the other hand, plenty of slight accidents are accepted much more easily, even when the amount of deadly victims from accidents reaches dimensions beyond those of the rare large-scale accidents. Here, mostly the damage possible but not the probability of its occurence is seen, let alone the general use of the new technology. The value of the mathematical models for estimating risks is mainly due to the fact that they are able to clear up decisions.

  10. Donor blood procurement and the risk of transfusion transmissible ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: Blood and blood products are scarce commodities. The demand often outweighs the supply. This study is directed at investigating the blood procurement sources and the risk of viral transfusion transmissible infection. Materials and Methods: The records of the blood transfusion unit of a tertiary health facility in ...

  11. The prevalence and assessment of blood transfusions in newborns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hajieh Borna

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: Blood transfusion is common in infants. Due to the weakened immune system of newborns and the risk of blood transfusion complications, it is necessary to pay more attention following or after to blood transfusion. The aim of this study was to evaluate the frequency and risk factors of blood transfusions in hospitalized neonates. Methods: A cross-sectional study was performed on 1106 infants admitted in the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU of Mustafa Khomeini University Hospital, Tehran, Iran, from spring 2009 to 2012. Frequency and the reason for of blood components transfusion including fresh frozen plasma, platelets, whole blood, packed red blood cells, cryoprecipitate and relationship with gestational age, sex, birth weight, Apgar score, duration of hospitalization, use of mechanical ventilation were assessed. Statistical analysis was performed with SPSS statistical software, version 16 (IBM, Armonk, NY, USA and statistical test, chi-square test, independent t-test and analysis of variance (ANOVA. Results: Among 1106 infants admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit, 221 infants (%19.98 received blood products. 82 of all (37% were female and 139 (%63 were female. 113 (51% of neonate were preterm and 108 (48% were term. From 361 times of blood transfusions, 121 infant (54.75% received at least one blood product. The frequency of blood transfusion was between 39 and 1 times, with an average of 3.65 times per infant. Frequency of fresh frozen plasma infusion was 173 (47.9%, packed cell 122 (33%, platelet 32 (8.8%, cryoprecipitate 20 (5.1% and whole blood 3 unit (0.83%. The most common causes for fresh frozen plasma transfusion was replacement therapy 140 (80%, for packed cell, to correct symptomatic anemia 68 (55.6%, for platelet transfusions was to prevent bleeding in  neonates with thrombocytopenia 20 (62.5% and cryoprecipitate for bleeding caused by DIC in 18 infant (90%. There was significant relation between frequency of

  12. Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage.

  13. Caries risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mejàre, I; Axelsson, S; Dahlén, G

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To assess the ability of multivariate models and single factors to correctly identify future caries development in pre-school children and schoolchildren/adolescents. STUDY DESIGN: A systematic literature search for relevant papers was conducted with pre-determined inclusion criteria...... predictors, baseline caries experience had moderate/good accuracy in pre-school children and limited accuracy in schoolchildren/adolescents. The period of highest risk for caries incidence in permanent teeth was the first few years after tooth eruption. In general, the quality of evidence was limited....... CONCLUSIONS: Multivariate models and baseline caries prevalence performed better in pre-school children than in schoolchildren/adolescents. Baseline caries prevalence was the most accurate single predictor in all age groups. The heterogeneity of populations, models, outcome criteria, measures and reporting...

  14. High Blood Pressure, Afib and Your Risk of Stroke

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Peripheral Artery Disease Venous Thromboembolism Aortic Aneurysm More High Blood Pressure, AFib and Your Risk of Stroke Updated:Aug ... have a stroke for the first time have high blood pressure . And an irregular atrial heart rhythm — a condition ...

  15. Methods of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, D.R.

    1981-01-01

    The subject is discussed under the headings: introduction (identification, quantification of risk); some approaches to risk evaluation (use of the 'no risk' principle; the 'acceptable risk' method; risk balancing; comparison of risks, benefits and other costs); cost benefit analysis; an alternative approach (tabulation and display; description and reduction of the data table); identification of potential decision sets consistent with the constraints. Some references are made to nuclear power. (U.K.)

  16. Risk assessments ensure safer power

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1982-02-19

    A growth industry is emerging devoted to the study and comparison of the economic, social and health risks posed by large industrial installations. Electricity generation is one area coming under particularly close scrutiny. Types of risk, ways of assessing risk and the difference between experts' analyses and the public perception of risk are given. An example of improved risk assessment helping to reduce deaths and injuries in coal mining is included.

  17. Defense Programs Transportation Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clauss, D.B.

    1994-01-01

    This paper provides an overview of the methodology used in a probabilistic transportation risk assessment conducted to assess the probabilities and consequences of inadvertent dispersal of radioactive materials arising from severe transportation accidents. The model was developed for the Defense Program Transportation Risk Assessment (DPTRA) study. The analysis incorporates several enhancements relative to previous risk assessments of hazardous materials transportation including newly-developed statistics on the frequencies and severities of tractor semitrailer accidents and detailed route characterization using the 1990 Census data

  18. Risk assessment for halogenated solvents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Travis, C.C.

    1988-01-01

    A recent development in the cancer risk area is the advent of biologically based pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic models. These models allow for the incorporation of biological and mechanistic data into the risk assessment process. These advances will not only improve the risk assessment process for halogenated solvents but will stimulate and guide basic research in the biological area

  19. Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.

  20. HTGR accident and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silady, F.A.; Everline, C.J.; Houghton, W.J.

    1982-01-01

    This paper is a synopsis of the high-temperature gas-cooled reactor probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) performed by General Atomic Company. Principal topics presented include: HTGR safety assessments, peer interfaces, safety research, process gas explosions, quantitative safety goals, licensing applications of PRA, enhanced safety, investment risk assessments, and PRA design integration

  1. Information needs for risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DeRosa, C.T.; Choudhury, H.; Schoeny, R.S.

    1990-12-31

    Risk assessment can be thought of as a conceptual approach to bridge the gap between the available data and the ultimate goal of characterizing the risk or hazard associated with a particular environmental problem. To lend consistency to and to promote quality in the process, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Carcinogenicity, Developmental Toxicity, Germ Cell Mutagenicity and Exposure Assessment, and Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures. The guidelines provide a framework for organizing the information, evaluating data, and for carrying out the risk assessment in a scientifically plausible manner. In the absence of sufficient scientific information or when abundant data are available, the guidelines provide alternative methodologies that can be employed in the risk assessment. 4 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  2. Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

    2006-01-01

    Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of

  3. [Forensic assessment of violence risk].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L

    2014-03-01

    Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

  4. Risk assessment and regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1981-01-01

    The approach to determining how safe is safe for the nuclear industry is to ensure that the risks are comparable with or less than those of other safe industries. There are some problems in implementing such an approach, because the effects of low levels of radiation are stochastic and assumptions are required in estimating the risks. A conservative approach has generally been adopted. Risk estimates across different activities are a useful indication of where society may be overspending or underspending to reduce risk, but the analysis has to take account of public preferences. Once risks have been estimated, limits may be chosen which the industry is expected to meet under normal and postulated accident conditions. Limits have been set so that nuclear risks do not exceed those in safe industries, and under normal conditions nuclear facilities operate at levels far below these specified limits

  5. Models for Pesticide Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA considers the toxicity of the pesticide as well as the amount of pesticide to which a person or the environments may be exposed in risk assessment. Scientists use mathematical models to predict pesticide concentrations in exposure assessment.

  6. Using risk assessment in periodontics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodman, Alan J

    2014-08-01

    Risk assessment has become a regular feature in both dental practice and society as a whole, and principles used to assess risk in society are similar to those used in a clinical setting. Although the concept of risk assessment as a prognostic indicator for periodontal disease incidence and activity is well established in the management of periodontitis, the use of risk assessment to manage the practical treatment of periodontitis and its sequelae appears to have less foundation. A simple system of initial risk assessment - building on the use of the Basic Periodontal Examination (BPE), clinical, medical and social factors - is described, linked to protocols for delivering care suited to general dental practice and stressing the role of long-term supportive care. The risks of not treating the patient are considered, together with the possible causes of failure, and the problems of successful treatment are illustrated by the practical management of post-treatment recession.

  7. blood transfusion requirement during caesarean delivery: risk factors

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Factors predisposing to increased risk for blood transfusion identified from previous ... This study was conducted to determine the risk factors for blood transfusion during anaesthesia for caesarean section. ... study which could fall into either of the following conditions: satisfactory post- operative clinical status up to 48 hours ...

  8. Environmental Risk Communication through Qualitative Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabre J. Coleman

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Environmental analysts are often hampered in communicating the risks of environmental contaminants due to the myriad of regulatory requirements that are applicable. The use of a qualitative, risk-based control banding strategy for assessment and control of potential environmental contaminants provides a standardized approach to improve risk communication. Presented is a model that provides an effective means for determining standardized responses and controls for common environmental issues based on the level of risk. The model is designed for integration within an occupational health and safety management system to provide a multidisciplinary environmental and occupational risk management approach. This environmental model, which utilizes multidisciplinary control banding strategies for delineating risk, complements the existing Risk Level Based Management System, a proven method in a highly regulated facility for occupational health and safety. A simplified environmental risk matrix is presented that is stratified over four risk levels. Examples of qualitative environmental control banding strategies are presented as they apply to United States regulations for construction, research activities, facility maintenance, and spill remediation that affect air, water, soil, and waste disposal. This approach offers a standardized risk communication language for multidisciplinary issues that will improve communications within and between environmental health and safety professionals, workers, and management.

  9. Racial and gender discrimination: risk factors for high blood pressure?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krieger, N

    1990-01-01

    Despite controversy as to the biologic and/or social meaning of 'race' and 'sex', few public health studies have directly examined the impact of racial or gender discrimination on health. One plausible condition they might affect is hypertension, since stress and internalized anger may constitute important risk factors for this disease. The present investigation therefore sought to determine the feasibility of asking questions pertaining to race- and gender-biased treatment plus response to unfair treatment, and to assess their predictive value regarding self-reported high blood pressure. Using random-digit dialing, 51 black and 50 white women, ages 20-80, who resided in Alameda County, CA in 1987, were identified and interviewed by phone. Among black respondents, those who stated they usually accepted and kept quiet about unfair treatment were 4.4 times more likely to report hypertension than women who said they took action and talked to others (P = 0.01 for linear trend); no clear association existed among white respondents. The age-adjusted risk of high blood pressure among black respondents who recounted experiencing zero instances of race- and gender-biased treatment was 2.6 times greater than that of black women who reported one or more such instances (95% CI = 0.7, 10.5). Among white respondents, gender discrimination was not associated with hypertension. These results suggest that an internalized response to unfair treatment, plus non-reporting of race and gender discrimination, may constitute risk factors for high blood pressure among black women. They also bolster the view that subjective appraisal of stressors may be inversely associated with risk of hypertension.

  10. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: ETHYLENE OXIDE ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

  11. [Assessment of malaria screening management in blood donation control in the French Military Blood Institute].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pouget, T; Garcia-Hejl, C; Bouzard, S; Roche, C; Sailliol, A; Martinaud, C

    2014-06-01

    The French Military Blood Institute is responsible for the entire blood supply chain in the French Armed Forces. Considering, the high exposition rate of military to malaria risk, blood donation screening of plasmodium infection must be as efficient as possible. The main aim of our study was to assess our malaria testing strategy based on a single Elisa test compared with a two-step strategy implying immunofluorescence testing as confirmation test. The second goal was to describe characteristic of malaria Elisa positive donors. We conducted a prospective study: every malaria Elisa positive test was implemented by immunofluorescence testing and demographical data were recorded as usual by our medical software. We showed a significant risk of malaria ELISA positive tests among donor born in endemic area and we estimate the number of abusively 3-year rejected donors. However, based on our estimations, the two-step strategy is not relevant since the number of additionally collected blood products will be low. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  12. Impaired blood rheology is associated with endothelial dysfunction in patients with coronary risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yagi, Hideki; Sumino, Hiroyuki; Aoki, Tomoyuki; Tsunekawa, Katsuhiko; Araki, Osamu; Kimura, Takao; Nara, Makoto; Ogiwara, Takayuki; Murakami, Masami

    2016-01-01

    To investigate the relationship between blood rheology and endothelial function in patients with coronary risk factors, brachial arterial flow-mediated vasodilatation (FMD), an index of endothelial function and blood passage time (BPT), an index of blood rheology, and fasting blood cell count, glucose metabolism, and plasma fibrinogen, lipid, C-reactive protein, and whole blood viscosity levels were measured in 95 patients with coronary risk factors and 37 healthy controls. Brachial arterial FMD after reactive hyperemia was assessed by ultrasonography. BPT was assessed using the microchannel method. In healthy controls, BPT significantly correlated with FMD (r = - 0.325, p index (BMI; r = 0.530, p measurement of blood rheology using the microchannel method may be useful in evaluating brachial arterial endothelial function as a marker of atherosclerosis in these patients.

  13. Risk indices in comparative risk assessment studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, P.

    1984-01-01

    More than a decade ago the development of comparative risk assessment studies aroused overwhelming interest. There was no doubt that data on the health and safety aspects of energy systems would greatly benefit, or even end, the debate on nuclear energy. Although such attempts are still strongly supported, the rose-coloured expectations of the early days have faded. The high uncertainties, and the contradictory aspect, of the first results might explain this evolution. The loose connection between the range of computed risk indices and the questions on which the debate was focused is another reason for this decline in interest. Important research work is being carried out aiming at reducing the different kinds of uncertainties. Rather than the uncertainties, the paper considers the meaning of available risk indices and proposes more significant indices with respect to the goals of risk assessment. First, the indices which are of frequent use in comparative studies are listed. The stress is put on a French comparative study from which most examples are drawn. Secondly, the increase in magnitude of the indices and the decrease in the attributability of the risk to a given system is shown to be a consequence of the trend towards more comprehensive analyses. Thirdly, the ambiguity of such indices as the collective occupational risk is underlined, and a possible solution is suggested. Whenever risk assessments are related to pragmatic decision making problems it is possible to find satisfactory risk indices. The development of cost-effectiveness analyses and the proposals for quantitative safety goals clearly demonstrate this point. In the field of comparison of social impacts some proposals are made, but there remain some gaps still to be filled. (author)

  14. Implications of probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cullingford, M.C.; Shah, S.M.; Gittus, J.H.

    1987-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is an analytical process that quantifies the likelihoods, consequences and associated uncertainties of the potential outcomes of postulated events. Starting with planned or normal operation, probabilistic risk assessment covers a wide range of potential accidents and considers the whole plant and the interactions of systems and human actions. Probabilistic risk assessment can be applied in safety decisions in design, licensing and operation of industrial facilities, particularly nuclear power plants. The proceedings include a review of PRA procedures, methods and technical issues in treating uncertainties, operating and licensing issues and future trends. Risk assessment for specific reactor types or components and specific risks (eg aircraft crashing onto a reactor) are used to illustrate the points raised. All 52 articles are indexed separately. (U.K.)

  15. Tools for Microbiological risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bassett, john; Nauta, Maarten; Lindqvist, Roland

    can increase the understanding of microbiological risks in foods. It is timely to inform food safety professionals about the availability and utility of MRA tools. Therefore, the focus of this report is to aid the food safety manager by providing a concise summary of the tools available for the MRA......Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) has emerged as a comprehensive and systematic approach for addressing the risk of pathogens in specific foods and/or processes. At government level, MRA is increasingly recognised as a structured and objective approach to understand the level of risk in a given...... food/pathogen scenario. Tools developed so far support qualitative and quantitative assessments of the risk that a food pathogen poses to a particular population. Risk can be expressed as absolute numbers or as relative (ranked) risks. The food industry is beginning to appreciate that the tools for MRA...

  16. Integrated climate change risk assessment:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Halsnæs, Kirsten

    2017-01-01

    Risk assessments of flooding in urban areas during extreme precipitation for use in, for example, decision-making regarding climate adaptation, are surrounded by great uncertainties stemming from climate model projections, methods of downscaling and the assumptions of socioeconomic impact models...... to address the complex linkages between the different kinds of data required in assessing climate adaptation. It emphasizes that the availability of spatially explicit data can reduce the overall uncertainty of the risk assessment and assist in identifying key vulnerable assets. The usefulness...... of such a framework is demonstrated by means of a risk assessment of flooding from extreme precipitation for the city of Odense, Denmark. A sensitivity analysis shows how the presence of particularly important assets, such as cultural and historical heritage, may be addressed in assessing such risks. The output...

  17. Carcinogen risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hazelwoold, R.N.

    1987-01-01

    This article describes the methods by which risk factors for carcinogenic hazards are determined and the limitations inherent in the process. From statistical and epidemiological studies, the major identifiable factors related to cancer in the United States were determined to be cigarette smoking, diet, reproductive and sexual behavior, infections, ultraviolet and ionizing radiation, and alcohol consumption. The incidence of lung cancer due to air pollutants was estimated to be less than 2%. Research needs were discussed

  18. Probabilistic risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shinaishin, M.A.

    1988-06-01

    The objective of this work is to provide the tools necessary for clear identification of: the purpose of a Probabilistic Risk Study, the bounds and depth of the study, the proper modeling techniques to be used, the failure modes contributing to the analysis, the classical and baysian approaches for manipulating data necessary for quantification, ways for treating uncertainties, and available computer codes that may be used in performing such probabilistic analysis. In addition, it provides the means for measuring the importance of a safety feature to maintaining a level of risk at a Nuclear Power Plant and the worth of optimizing a safety system in risk reduction. In applying these techniques so that they accommodate our national resources and needs it was felt that emphasis should be put on the system reliability analysis level of PRA. Objectives of such studies could include: comparing systems' designs of the various vendors in the bedding stage, and performing grid reliability and human performance analysis using national specific data. (author)

  19. Probabilistic risk assessment methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shinaishin, M A

    1988-06-15

    The objective of this work is to provide the tools necessary for clear identification of: the purpose of a Probabilistic Risk Study, the bounds and depth of the study, the proper modeling techniques to be used, the failure modes contributing to the analysis, the classical and baysian approaches for manipulating data necessary for quantification, ways for treating uncertainties, and available computer codes that may be used in performing such probabilistic analysis. In addition, it provides the means for measuring the importance of a safety feature to maintaining a level of risk at a Nuclear Power Plant and the worth of optimizing a safety system in risk reduction. In applying these techniques so that they accommodate our national resources and needs it was felt that emphasis should be put on the system reliability analysis level of PRA. Objectives of such studies could include: comparing systems' designs of the various vendors in the bedding stage, and performing grid reliability and human performance analysis using national specific data. (author)

  20. Probabilistic risk assessment, Volume I

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1982-01-01

    This book contains 158 papers presented at the International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Risk Assessment held by the American Nuclear Society (ANS) and the European Nuclear Society (ENS) in Port Chester, New York in 1981. The meeting was second in a series of three. The main focus of the meeting was on the safety of light water reactors. The papers discuss safety goals and risk assessment. Quantitative safety goals, risk assessment in non-nuclear technologies, and operational experience and data base are also covered. Included is an address by Dr. Chauncey Starr

  1. Risk assessment in maritime transportation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soares, C. Guedes; Teixeira, A.P.

    2001-01-01

    A review is presented of different approaches to quantify the risk in maritime transportation. The discussion of several accident statistics provides a global assessment of the risk levels and its differentiation in ship types and main types of ship losses. Early studies in the probability of ship loss by foundering and capsizing are reviewed. The approaches used to assess the risk of structural design are addressed. Finally a brief account is given of recent development of using formal safety assessments to support decision making on legislation applicable internationally to maritime transportation

  2. Framework for ecological risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodier, D.; Norton, S.

    1992-02-01

    Increased interest in ecological issues such as global climate change, habitat loss, acid deposition, reduced biological diversity, and the ecological impacts of pesticides and toxic chemicals prompts this U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) report, A Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment ('Framework Report'). The report describes basic elements, or a framework, for evaluating scientific information on the adverse effects of physical and chemical stressors on the environment. The framework offers starting principles and a simple structure as guidance for current ecological risk assessments and as a foundation for future EPA proposals for risk assessment guidelines

  3. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  4. Incidence and risk factors of occupational blood exposure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nelsing, S; Nielsen, T L; Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik

    1997-01-01

    Occupational blood exposures involves a risk of transmission of serious infections. We performed a nation-wide survey, to describe the incidence and risk factors of percutaneous (PCE) and mucocutaneous (MCE) blood exposures among hospital employed doctors in Denmark. Of 9,374 questionnaires, 6......). Only 35% adhered to the basic principles of universal precautions (UP) and non-compliance was associated with a considerably increased risk of both MCE and PCE, especially in non-surgical specialties. In conclusion, we found an unacceptably high incidence of occupational blood exposures among Danish...

  5. Quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinstock, Robert M (Inventor); Smidts, Carol S (Inventor); Mosleh, Ali (Inventor); Chang, Yung-Hsien (Inventor); Swaminathan, Sankaran (Inventor); Groen, Francisco J (Inventor); Tan, Zhibin (Inventor)

    2001-01-01

    A quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS) builds a risk model of a system for which risk of failure is being assessed, then analyzes the risk of the system corresponding to the risk model. The QRAS performs sensitivity analysis of the risk model by altering fundamental components and quantifications built into the risk model, then re-analyzes the risk of the system using the modifications. More particularly, the risk model is built by building a hierarchy, creating a mission timeline, quantifying failure modes, and building/editing event sequence diagrams. Multiplicities, dependencies, and redundancies of the system are included in the risk model. For analysis runs, a fixed baseline is first constructed and stored. This baseline contains the lowest level scenarios, preserved in event tree structure. The analysis runs, at any level of the hierarchy and below, access this baseline for risk quantitative computation as well as ranking of particular risks. A standalone Tool Box capability exists, allowing the user to store application programs within QRAS.

  6. Risk assessment: An employer's perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, K.C.

    1992-01-01

    There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime

  7. Risk assessment: An employer's perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williams, K C [Exxon International (United States)

    1992-07-01

    There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime.

  8. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines. PMID:26301217

  9. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems - examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  10. Building better environmental risk assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raymond eLayton

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERA for genetically modified (GM crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data, and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  11. Risk assessment in international operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stricklin, Daniela L.

    2008-01-01

    During international peace-keeping missions, a diverse number of non-battle hazards may be encountered, which range from heavily polluted areas, endemic disease, toxic industrial materials, local violence, traffic, and even psychological factors. Hence, elevated risk levels from a variety of sources are encountered during deployments. With the emphasis within the Swedish military moving from national defense towards prioritization of international missions in atypical environments, the risk of health consequences, including long term health effects, has received greater consideration. The Swedish military is interested in designing an optimal approach for assessment of health threats during deployments. The Medical Intelligence group at FOI CBRN Security and Defence in Umea has, on request from and in collaboration with the Swedish Armed Forces, reviewed a variety of international health threat and risk assessment models for military operations. Application of risk assessment methods used in different phases of military operations will be reviewed. An overview of different international approaches used in operational risk management (ORM) will be presented as well as a discussion of the specific needs and constraints for health risk assessment in military operations. This work highlights the specific challenges of risk assessment that are unique to the deployment setting such as the assessment of exposures to a variety of diverse hazards concurrently

  12. Assessment and perception of risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daglish, J

    1981-01-01

    A recent two-day meeting was called by the Royal Society to discuss all types of risks, but symptomatic of the concerns of most of those present, the discussion centred mainly on the risks inherent in energy production and use. Among the subjects considered were public perception of differing risks, and how these are ranked, and risks versus benefits. Quotations from and summaries of many of the papers presented show that it was generally felt that scientists must be very careful in the way that they use numerical assessments of risk and that they should pay more attention than they have to social and political factors.

  13. Deterministic quantitative risk assessment development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dawson, Jane; Colquhoun, Iain [PII Pipeline Solutions Business of GE Oil and Gas, Cramlington Northumberland (United Kingdom)

    2009-07-01

    Current risk assessment practice in pipeline integrity management is to use a semi-quantitative index-based or model based methodology. This approach has been found to be very flexible and provide useful results for identifying high risk areas and for prioritizing physical integrity assessments. However, as pipeline operators progressively adopt an operating strategy of continual risk reduction with a view to minimizing total expenditures within safety, environmental, and reliability constraints, the need for quantitative assessments of risk levels is becoming evident. Whereas reliability based quantitative risk assessments can be and are routinely carried out on a site-specific basis, they require significant amounts of quantitative data for the results to be meaningful. This need for detailed and reliable data tends to make these methods unwieldy for system-wide risk k assessment applications. This paper describes methods for estimating risk quantitatively through the calibration of semi-quantitative estimates to failure rates for peer pipeline systems. The methods involve the analysis of the failure rate distribution, and techniques for mapping the rate to the distribution of likelihoods available from currently available semi-quantitative programs. By applying point value probabilities to the failure rates, deterministic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) provides greater rigor and objectivity than can usually be achieved through the implementation of semi-quantitative risk assessment results. The method permits a fully quantitative approach or a mixture of QRA and semi-QRA to suit the operator's data availability and quality, and analysis needs. For example, consequence analysis can be quantitative or can address qualitative ranges for consequence categories. Likewise, failure likelihoods can be output as classical probabilities or as expected failure frequencies as required. (author)

  14. Smartphone-based assessment of blood alteration severity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xianglin; Xue, Jiaxin; Li, Wei; Li, Ting

    2018-02-01

    Blood quality and safety management is a critical issue for cold chain transportation of blood or blood-based biological reagent. The conventional methods of blood alteration severity assessment mainly rely on kit test or blood-gas analysis required opening the blood package to get samples, which cause possible blood pollution and are complicate, timeconsuming, and expensive. Here we proposed to develop a portable, real-time, safety, easy-operated and low cost method aimed at assessing blood alteration severity. Color images of the blood in transparent blood bags were collected with a smartphone and the alteration severity of the blood was assessed by the smartphone app offered analysis of RGB color values of the blood. The algorithm is based on a large number sample of RGB values of blood at different alteration degree. The blood quality results evaluated by the smartphone are in accordance with the actual data. This study indicates the potential of smart phone in real time, convenient, and reliable blood quality assessment.

  15. Modern biogeochemistry environmental risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Bashkin, Vladimir N

    2006-01-01

    Most books deal mainly with various technical aspects of ERA description and calculationsAims at generalizing the modern ideas of both biogeochemical and environmental risk assessment during recent yearsAims at supplementing the existing books by providing a modern understanding of mechanisms that are responsible for the ecological risk for human beings and ecosystem

  16. Risk assessment future cash flows

    OpenAIRE

    Chachina H. G.

    2012-01-01

    This article is about risk assessment in planning future cash flows. Discount rate in DCF-model must include four factors: risk cash flow, inflation, value of investments, turnover assets. This has an influence net present value cash flow and make his incomparable.

  17. Test reactor risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jennings, R.H.; Rawlins, J.K.; Stewart, M.E.

    1976-04-01

    A methodology has been developed for the identification of accident initiating events and the fault modeling of systems, including common mode identification, as these methods are applied in overall test reactor risk assessment. The methods are exemplified by a determination of risks to a loss of primary coolant flow in the Engineering Test Reactor

  18. Anthropic Risk Assessment on Biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piragnolo, M.; Pirotti, F.; Vettore, A.; Salogni, G.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology for risk assessment of anthropic activities on habitats and species. The method has been developed for Veneto Region, in order to simplify and improve the quality of EIA procedure (VINCA). Habitats and species, animals and plants, are protected by European Directive 92/43/EEC and 2009/147/EC but they are subject at hazard due to pollution produced by human activities. Biodiversity risks may conduct to deterioration and disturbance in ecological niches, with consequence of loss of biodiversity. Ecological risk assessment applied on Natura 2000 network, is needed to best practice of management and monitoring of environment and natural resources. Threats, pressure and activities, stress and indicators may be managed by geodatabase and analysed using GIS technology. The method used is the classic risk assessment in ecological context, and it defines the natural hazard as influence, element of risk as interference and vulnerability. Also it defines a new parameter called pressure. It uses risk matrix for the risk analysis on spatial and temporal scale. The methodology is qualitative and applies the precautionary principle in environmental assessment. The final product is a matrix which excludes the risk and could find application in the development of a territorial information system.

  19. Cloud computing assessing the risks

    CERN Document Server

    Carstensen, Jared; Golden, Bernard

    2012-01-01

    Cloud Computing: Assessing the risks answers these questions and many more. Using jargon-free language and relevant examples, analogies and diagrams, it is an up-to-date, clear and comprehensive guide the security, governance, risk, and compliance elements of Cloud Computing.

  20. Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses remains a complex challenge. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk asses...

  1. Understand Your Risk for Excessive Blood Clotting

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... and Live Our Interactive Cardiovascular Library has detailed animations and illustrations to help you learn about conditions, treatments and procedures related to heart disease and stroke. Popular Articles 1 Understanding Blood Pressure Readings 2 Sodium and Salt 3 Heart Attack Symptoms ...

  2. Evaluation of thermal risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loos, J.J.; Perry, E.S.

    1993-01-01

    Risk assessment was done in 1983 to estimate the ecological hazard of increasing the generating load and thermal output of an electric generating station. Subsequently, long-term monitoring in the vicinity of the station allowed verification of the predictions made in the risk assessment. This presentation will review the efficacy of early risk assessment methods in producing useful predictions from a resource management point of view. In 1984, the Chalk Point Generating facility of the Potomac Electric Power Company increased it's median generating load by 100%. Prior to this operational change, the Academy of Natural Sciences of Philadelphia synthesized site specific data, model predictions, and results from literature to assess the risk of additional waste heat to the Patuxent River subestuary of Chesapeake Bay. Risk was expressed as the number of days per year that various species of fish and the blue crab would be expected to avoid the discharge vicinity. Accuracy of these predictions is assessed by comparing observed fish and crab distributions and their observed frequencies of avoidance to those predicted. It is concluded that the predictions of this early risk assessment were sufficiently accurate to produce a reliable resource management decision

  3. Risk Factors for Blood Transfusion With Primary Posterior Lumbar Fusion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basques, Bryce A; Anandasivam, Nidharshan S; Webb, Matthew L; Samuel, Andre M; Lukasiewicz, Adam M; Bohl, Daniel D; Grauer, Jonathan N

    2015-11-01

    Retrospective cohort study. To identify factors associated with blood transfusion for primary posterior lumbar fusion surgery, and to identify associations between blood transfusion and other postoperative complications. Blood transfusion is a relatively common occurrence for patients undergoing primary posterior lumbar fusion. There is limited information available describing which patients are at increased risk for blood transfusion, and the relationship between blood transfusion and short-term postoperative outcomes is poorly characterized. The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS-NSQIP) database was used to identify patients undergoing primary posterior lumbar fusion from 2011 to 2013. Multivariate analysis was used to find associations between patient characteristics and blood transfusion, along with associations between blood transfusion and postoperative outcomes. Out of 4223 patients, 704 (16.7%) had a blood transfusion. Age 60 to 69 (relative risk [RR] 1.6), age greater than equal to 70 (RR 1.7), American Society of Anesthesiologists class greater than equal to 3 (RR 1.1), female sex (RR 1.1), pulmonary disease (RR 1.2), preoperative hematocrit less than 36.0 (RR 2.0), operative time greater than equal to 310 minutes (RR 2.9), 2 levels (RR 1.6), and 3 or more levels (RR 2.1) were independently associated with blood transfusion. Interbody fusion (RR 0.9) was associated with decreased rates of blood transfusion. Receiving a blood transfusion was significantly associated with any complication (RR 1.7), sepsis (RR 2.6), return to the operating room (RR 1.7), deep surgical site infection (RR 2.6), and pulmonary embolism (RR 5.1). Blood transfusion was also associated with an increase in postoperative length of stay of 1.4 days (P risk factors for these occurrences were characterized. Strategies to minimize blood loss might be considered in these patients to avoid the associated complications. 3.

  4. Blood transfusion requirement during caesarean delivery: Risk factors

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: Group specific blood is often cross-matched ready for all patients scheduled for caesarean section in anticipation of haemorrhage during the surgery. This study was conducted to determine the risk factors for blood transfusion during anaesthesia for caesarean section. Methods: This was a prospective ...

  5. Blood Pressure Management in Cardiovascular Risk Stratification. Procedure, Progression, Process.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Adiyaman, A.

    2009-01-01

    In this thesis we have explored different aspects of blood pressure measurement and related it to the risk of cardiovascular disease. In the first part we showed that when the arm is positioned under heart level, for example when the arm is placed on a desk or a chair support, the blood pressure and

  6. Risk of blood splashes to the eye during surgery

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2009-02-25

    Feb 25, 2009 ... The prevalence of blood-borne diseases such as hepatitis. B, hepatitis C and HIV is increasing globally. Sub-Saharan. Africa is one of the worst-affected regions. The risk of infection from these blood-borne pathogens has become a significant occupational hazard for many categories of health care workers ...

  7. Safety and radiation risks in the labelling of blood cells

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonzalez, B.M.

    1994-01-01

    Risk in the management of radioactive material and biological exposition to infectious agents. Protocols and normative to observe GOOD RADIOPHARMACY Practices. Main infectious agents that may be transmitted during preparation of a blood cell radiopharmaceutical. Problems of contamination

  8. Use of Repeated Blood Pressure and Cholesterol Measurements to Improve Cardiovascular Disease Risk Prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paige, Ellie; Barrett, Jessica; Pennells, Lisa

    2017-01-01

    The added value of incorporating information from repeated blood pressure and cholesterol measurements to predict cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk has not been rigorously assessed. We used data on 191,445 adults from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (38 cohorts from 17 countries with data...

  9. Pathology and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1976-01-01

    Programs for providing basic data for use in evaluating the hazard to man from exposure to radiation and other energy-related pollutants are reviewed. A computer program was developed that takes the existing mortality and fertility data on a given population and applies dose-response coefficients and estimated increments of exposure to chemical or radioactive effluents and derives the excess deaths by age and sex for 5-year intervals. The program was used in an analysis of the health effects of airborne coal combustion effluents. Preliminary results are reported from a study of the influence of products of fossil fuel combustion on the spontaneous activity patterns and daily metabolic cycles of mice as a factor of age, environment, and genetic constitution. Preliminary results are reported from studies on the early and late effects of polycyclic hydrocarbons on the immune competence of mice. Studies to determine the risk to human populations from radionuclides released to the environment from nuclear energy facilities use relative toxicity and dose response data from laboratory animals of different body size and life span and comparisons of the effects of internal exposure with those of external exposure to fission neutrons or gamma sources

  10. Taking the Risk Out of Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-01-01

    The ability to understand risks and have the right strategies in place when risky events occur is essential in the workplace. More and more organizations are being confronted with concerns over how to measure their risks or what kind of risks they can take when certain events transpire that could have a negative impact. NASA is one organization that faces these challenges on a daily basis, as effective risk management is critical to the success of its missions especially the Space Shuttle missions. On July 29, 1996, former NASA Administrator Daniel Goldin charged NASA s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance with developing a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) tool to support decisions on the funding of Space Shuttle upgrades. When issuing the directive, Goldin said, "Since I came to NASA [in 1992], we've spent billions of dollars on Shuttle upgrades without knowing how much they improve safety. I want a tool to help base upgrade decisions on risk." Work on the PRA tool began immediately. The resulting prototype, the Quantitative Risk Assessment System (QRAS) Version 1.0, was jointly developed by NASA s Marshall Space Flight Center, its Office of Safety and Mission Assurance, and researchers at the University of Maryland. QRAS software automatically expands the reliability logic models of systems to evaluate the probability of highly detrimental outcomes occurring in complex systems that are subject to potential accident scenarios. Even in its earliest forms, QRAS was used to begin PRA modeling of the Space Shuttle. In parallel, the development of QRAS continued, with the goal of making it a world-class tool, one that was especially suited to NASA s unique needs. From the beginning, an important conceptual goal in the development of QRAS was for it to help bridge the gap between the professional risk analyst and the design engineer. In the past, only the professional risk analyst could perform, modify, use, and perhaps even adequately understand PRA. NASA wanted

  11. Avalanche risk assessment in Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komarov, Anton; Seliverstov, Yury; Sokratov, Sergey; Glazovskaya, Tatiana; Turchaniniva, Alla

    2017-04-01

    The avalanche prone area covers about 3 million square kilometers or 18% of total area of Russia and pose a significant problem in most mountain regions of the country. The constant growth of economic activity, especially in the North Caucasus region and therefore the increased avalanche hazard lead to the demand of the large-scale avalanche risk assessment methods development. Such methods are needed for the determination of appropriate avalanche protection measures as well as for economic assessments during all stages of spatial planning of the territory. The requirement of natural hazard risk assessments is determined by the Federal Law of Russian Federation. However, Russian Guidelines (SP 11-103-97; SP 47.13330.2012) are not clearly presented concerning avalanche risk assessment calculations. A great size of Russia territory, vast diversity of natural conditions and large variations in type and level of economic development of different regions cause significant variations in avalanche risk values. At the first stage of research the small scale avalanche risk assessment was performed in order to identify the most common patterns of risk situations and to calculate full social risk and individual risk. The full social avalanche risk for the territory of country was estimated at 91 victims. The area of territory with individual risk values lesser then 1×10(-6) covers more than 92 % of mountain areas of the country. Within these territories the safety of population can be achieved mainly by organizational activities. Approximately 7% of mountain areas have 1×10(-6) - 1×10(-4) individual risk values and require specific mitigation measures to protect people and infrastructure. Territories with individual risk values 1×10(-4) and above covers about 0,1 % of the territory and include the most severe and hazardous mountain areas. The whole specter of mitigation measures is required in order to minimize risk. The future development of such areas is not recommended

  12. Competing risk theory and radiation risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Groer, P.G.

    1980-01-01

    New statistical procedures are applied to estimate cumulative distribution functions (c.d.f.), force of mortality, and latent period for radiation-induced malignancies. It is demonstrated that correction for competing risks influences the shape of dose response curves, estimates of the latent period, and of the risk from ionizing radiations. The equivalence of the following concepts is demonstrated: force of mortality, hazard rate, and age or time specific incidence. This equivalence makes it possible to use procedures from reliability analysis and demography for radiation risk assessment. Two methods used by reliability analysts - hazard plotting and total time on test plots - are discussed in some detail and applied to characterize the hazard rate in radiation carcinogenesis. C.d.f.'s with increasing, decreasing, or constant hazard rate have different shapes and are shown to yield different dose-response curves for continuous irradiation. Absolute risk is shown to be a sound estimator only if the force of mortality is constant for the exposed and the control group. Dose-response relationships that use the absolute risk as a measure for the effect turn out to be special cases of dose-response relationships that measure the effect with cumulative incidence. (H.K.)

  13. Caries risk assessment in children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, S

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE: To summarise the findings of recent systematic reviews (SR) covering caries risk assessment in children, updated with recent primary studies. METHODS: A search for relevant papers published 2012-2014 was conducted in electronic databases. The systematic reviews were quality assessed...... displayed a high risk of bias. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the present summary of literature, it may be concluded: (1) a caries risk assessment should be carried out at the child's first dental visit and reassessments should be done during childhood (D); (2) multivariate models display a better accuracy than...... the use of single predictors and this is especially true for preschool children (C); (3) there is no clearly superior method to predict future caries and no evidence to support the use of one model, program, or technology before the other (C); and (4) the risk category should be linked to appropriate...

  14. Assessing Risk of Innovation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allgood, GO

    2001-01-01

    Today's manufacturing systems and equipment must perform at levels thought impossible a decade ago. Companies must push operations, quality, and efficiencies to unprecedented levels while holding down costs. In this new economy, companies must be concerned with market shares, equity growth, market saturation, and profit. U.S. manufacturing is no exception and is a prime example of businesses forced to adapt to constant and rapid changes in customer needs and product mixes, giving rise to the term ''Agile Manufacturing''. The survival and ultimate success of the American Manufacturing economy may depend upon its ability to create, innovate, and quickly assess the impact that new innovations will have on its business practices. Given the need for flexibility, companies need proven methods to predict and measure the impact that new technologies and strategies will have on overall plant performance from an enterprise perspective. The Value-Derivative Model provides a methodology and approach to assess such impacts in terms of energy savings, production increases, quality impacts, emission reduction, and maintenance and operating costs as they relate to enabling and emerging technologies. This is realized by calculating a set of first order sensitivity parameters obtained from expanding a Taylor Series about the system's operating point. These sensitivity parameters are invariant economic and operational indicators that quantify the impact of any proposed technology in terms of material throughput, efficiency, energy usage, environmental effects, and costs. These parameters also provide a mechanism to define metrics and performance measures that can be qualified in terms of real economic impact. Value-Derivative Analysis can be applied across all manufacturing and production segments of our economy and has found specific use in steel and textiles. Where economic models give the cost of conducting a business, Value-Derivative Analysis provides the cost to conduct

  15. Risk assessment research and technology assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Albach, H.; Schade, D.; Sinn, H.

    1991-01-01

    The concepts and approaches for technology assessment, the targets and scientific principles, as well as recognizable deficits and recommendations concerning purposeful strategies for the promotion of this research field require a dialog between those concerned. Conception, deficits, and the necessary measures for risk assessment research and technology assessment were discussed as well as ethical aspects. The problematic nature of using organisms altered through genetic engineering in the open land, traffic and transport, site restoration, nuclear energy, and isotope applications were subjects particularly dealt with. (DG) [de

  16. Risk assessment for transport operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Appleton, P.R.; Miles, J.C.

    1990-01-01

    The world-wide safety of the transport of radioactive material is based on the IAEA Transport Regulations. Risk assessment can provide quantitative data to help in the demonstration, understanding and improvement of the effectiveness of the Regulations in assuring safety. In this Paper the methodology, data and computer codes necessary and available for transport risk assessment are reviewed. Notable examples of assessments carried out over the past 15 years are briefly described along with current research, and the benefits and limitations of the techniques are discussed. (author)

  17. Dairy consumption, systolic blood pressure, and risk of hypertension

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ding, Ming; Huang, Tao; Bergholdt, Helle Km

    2017-01-01

    Objective To examine whether previous observed inverse associations of dairy intake with systolic blood pressure and risk of hypertension were causal.Design Mendelian randomization study using the single nucleotide polymorphism rs4988235 related to lactase persistence as an instrumental variable...... blood pressure but not risk of hypertension (odds ratio 0.98, 0.97 to 1.00; P=0.11).Conclusion The weak inverse association between dairy intake and systolic blood pressure in observational studies was not supported by a comprehensive instrumental variable analysis and systematic review of existing...

  18. Blood pressure variability and risk of cardiovascular events and death in patients with hypertension and different baseline risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehlum, Maria H; Liestøl, Knut; Kjeldsen, Sverre E; Julius, Stevo; Hua, Tsushung A; Rothwell, Peter M; Mancia, Giuseppe; Parati, Gianfranco; Weber, Michael A; Berge, Eivind

    2018-01-20

    Blood pressure variability is associated with increased risk of cardiovascular events, particularly in high-risk patients. We assessed if variability was associated with increased risk of cardiovascular events and death in hypertensive patients at different risk levels. The Valsartan Antihypertensive Long-term Use Evaluation trial was a randomized controlled trial of valsartan vs. amlodipine in patients with hypertension and different risks of cardiovascular events, followed for a mean of 4.2 years. We calculated standard deviation (SD) of mean systolic blood pressure from visits from 6 months onward in patients with ≥3 visits and no events during the first 6 months. We compared the risk of cardiovascular events in the highest and lowest quintile of visit-to-visit blood pressure variability, using Cox regression. For analysis of death, variability was analysed as a continuous variable. Of 13 803 patients included, 1557 (11.3%) had a cardiovascular event and 1089 (7.9%) died. Patients in the highest quintile of SD had an increased risk of cardiovascular events [hazard ratio (HR) 2.1, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.7-2.4; P risk of death (HR 1.10, 95% CI 1.04-1.17; P = 0.002). Associations were stronger among younger patients and patients with lower systolic blood pressure, and similar between patients with different baseline risks, except for higher risk of death among patients with established cardiovascular disease. Higher visit-to-visit systolic blood pressure variability is associated with increased risk of cardiovascular events in patients with hypertension, irrespective of baseline risk of cardiovascular events. Associations were stronger in younger patients and in those with lower mean systolic blood pressure. Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author(s) 2018. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  19. Blood pressure and control of cardiovascular risk

    OpenAIRE

    Judith A Whitworth

    2005-01-01

    Judith A WhitworthJohn Curtin School of Medical Research, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, AustraliaAbstract: Two key early 20th century notions, the first the primacy of diastolic pressure in determining risk, and the second that hypertension is a discrete disorder, have proved to be incorrect. We now recognize the primacy of systolic pressure as a risk factor for cardiovascular disease and that hypertension is an arbitrary definition. In the early 21st century, we are moving a...

  20. Quantitative influence of risk factors on blood glucose level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Songjing; Luo, Senlin; Pan, Limin; Zhang, Tiemei; Han, Longfei; Zhao, Haixiu

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study is to quantitatively analyze the influence of risk factors on the blood glucose level, and to provide theory basis for understanding the characteristics of blood glucose change and confirming the intervention index for type 2 diabetes. The quantitative method is proposed to analyze the influence of risk factors on blood glucose using back propagation (BP) neural network. Ten risk factors are screened first. Then the cohort is divided into nine groups by gender and age. According to the minimum error principle, nine BP models are trained respectively. The quantitative values of the influence of different risk factors on the blood glucose change can be obtained by sensitivity calculation. The experiment results indicate that weight is the leading cause of blood glucose change (0.2449). The second factors are cholesterol, age and triglyceride. The total ratio of these four factors reaches to 77% of the nine screened risk factors. And the sensitivity sequences can provide judgment method for individual intervention. This method can be applied to risk factors quantitative analysis of other diseases and potentially used for clinical practitioners to identify high risk populations for type 2 diabetes as well as other disease.

  1. Blood transfusion risks and alternative strategies in pediatric patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavoie, Josée

    2011-01-01

    Although the safety of the blood supply has been greatly improved, there still remain both infectious and noninfectious risks to the patient. The incidence of noninfectious transfusion reactions is greater than that of infectious complications. Furthermore, the mortality associated with noninfectious risks is significantly higher. In fact, noninfectious risks account for 87-100% of fatal complications of transfusions. It is concerning to note that the majority of pediatric reports relate to human error such as overtransfusion and lack of knowledge of special requirements in the neonatal age group. The second most frequent category is acute transfusion reactions, majority of which are allergic in nature. It is estimated that the incidence of adverse outcome is 18:100,000 red blood cells issued for children aged less than 18 years and 37:100,000 for infants. The comparable adult incidence is 13:100,000. In order to decrease the risks associated with transfusion of blood products, various blood-conservation strategies can be utilized. Modalities such as acute normovolemic hemodilution, hypervolemic hemodilution, deliberate hypotension, antifibrinolytics, intraoperative blood salvage, and autologous blood donation are discussed and the pediatric literature is reviewed. A discussion of transfusion triggers, and algorithms as well as current research into alternatives to blood transfusions concludes this review. © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  2. Risk assessment and the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fisk, D.J.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change

  3. Risk assessment and the environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fisk, D J [Department of the Environment (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change.

  4. Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Health Professional Resources Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk Assessment of weight and health risk involves using ... risk for developing obesity-associated diseases or conditions. Risk Factors for Health Topics Associated With Obesity Along ...

  5. ABO Blood Group and Risk of Thromboembolic and Arterial Disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vasan, Senthil K; Rostgaard, Klaus; Majeed, Ammar

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: ABO blood groups have been shown to be associated with increased risks of venous thromboembolic and arterial disease. However, the reported magnitude of this association is inconsistent and is based on evidence from small-scale studies. METHODS AND RESULTS: We used the SCANDAT2...... (Scandinavian Donations and Transfusions) database of blood donors linked with other nationwide health data registers to investigate the association between ABO blood groups and the incidence of first and recurrent venous thromboembolic and arterial events. Blood donors in Denmark and Sweden between 1987......-up. Compared with blood group O, non-O blood groups were associated with higher incidence of both venous and arterial thromboembolic events. The highest rate ratios were observed for pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism (incidence rate ratio, 2.22; 95% confidence interval, 1.77-2.79), deep vein thrombosis...

  6. Aspects regarding explosion risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Părăian Mihaela

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Explosive risk occurs in all activities involving flammable substances in the form of gases, vapors, mists or dusts which, in mixture with air, can generate an explosive atmosphere. As explosions can cause human losses and huge material damage, the assessment of the explosion risk and the establishment of appropriate measures to reduce it to acceptable levels according to the standards and standards in force is of particular importance for the safety and health of people and goods.There is no yet a recognized method of assessing the explosion risk, but regardless of the applied method, the likelihood of an explosive atmosphere occurrence has to be determined, together with the occurrence of an efficient ignition source and the magnitude of foreseeable consequences. In assessment processes, consequences analysis has a secondary importance since it’s likely that explosions would always involve considerable damage, starting from important material damages and up to human damages that could lead to death.The purpose of the work is to highlight the important principles and elements to be taken into account for a specific risk assessment. An essential element in assessing the risk of explosion in workplaces where explosive atmospheres may occur is technical installations and personal protective equipment (PPE that must be designed, manufactured, installed and maintained so that they cannot generate a source of ignition. Explosion prevention and protection requirements are governed by specific norms and standards, and a main part of the explosion risk assessment is related to the assessment of the compliance of the equipment / installation with these requirements.

  7. Risk assessment and nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bodansky, D.

    1982-01-01

    The range of risk perceptions involving nuclear power is so great that there is little hope of bridging extreme positions, but a consensus based upon reasoned discussion among uncommitted people could determine a sensible path. Our concerns over the uncertainties of risk assessment have made it increasingly difficult to make responsible decisions fast enough to deal with modern needs. The result is an immobility in energy matters that can point to a 2% reduction in oil use as its only triumph. The risk of nuclear war as a result of military action over energy issues suggests to some that the solution is to abolish nuclear power (however impractical) and to others that a rapid spread of nuclear power will eliminate energy as an incentive for war. If nuclear war is the major risk to consider, risk assessments need to include the risks of war, as well as those of carbon dioxide buildup and socio-economic disruptions, all of which loom larger than the risks of nuclear-plant accidents. Energy choices should be aimed at diminishing these major risks, even if they include the use of nuclear power. 26 references

  8. Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... HRS Find a Specialist Share Twitter Facebook SCA Risk Assessment Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) occurs abruptly and without ... people of all ages and health conditions. Start Risk Assessment The Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment Tool ...

  9. The Precautionary Principle and the Tolerability of Blood Transfusion Risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kramer, Koen; Zaaijer, Hans L; Verweij, Marcel F

    2017-03-01

    Tolerance for blood transfusion risks is very low, as evidenced by the implementation of expensive blood tests and the rejection of gay men as blood donors. Is this low risk tolerance supported by the precautionary principle, as defenders of such policies claim? We discuss three constraints on applying (any version of) the precautionary principle and show that respecting these implies tolerating certain risks. Consistency means that the precautionary principle cannot prescribe precautions that it must simultaneously forbid taking, considering the harms they might cause. Avoiding counterproductivity requires rejecting precautions that cause more harm than they prevent. Proportionality forbids taking precautions that are more harmful than adequate alternatives. When applying these constraints, we argue, attention should not be restricted to harms that are human caused or that affect human health or the environment. Tolerating transfusion risks can be justified if available precautions have serious side effects, such as high social or economic costs.

  10. Human reliability assessment and probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Embrey, D.E.; Lucas, D.A.

    1989-01-01

    Human reliability assessment (HRA) is used within Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to identify the human errors (both omission and commission) which have a significant effect on the overall safety of the system and to quantify the probability of their occurrence. There exist a variey of HRA techniques and the selection of an appropriate one is often difficult. This paper reviews a number of available HRA techniques and discusses their strengths and weaknesses. The techniques reviewed include: decompositional methods, time-reliability curves and systematic expert judgement techniques. (orig.)

  11. Environmental Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayramov, A. A.

    In this paper, various aspects of modern nanotechnologies and, as a result, risks of nanomaterials impact on an environment are considered. This very brief review of the First International Conference on Material and Information Sciences in High Technologies (2007, Baku, Azerbaijan) is given. The conference presented many reports that were devoted to nanotechnology in biology and business for the developing World, formation of charged nanoparticles for creation of functional nanostructures, nanoprocessing of carbon nanotubes, magnetic and optical properties of manganese-phosphorus nanowires, ultra-nanocrystalline diamond films, and nanophotonics communications in Azerbaijan. The mathematical methods of simulation of the group, individual and social risks are considered for the purpose of nanomaterials risk reduction and remediation. Lastly, we have conducted studies at a plant of polymeric materials (and nanomaterials), located near Baku. Assessments have been conducted on the individual risk of person affection and constructed the map of equal isolines and zones of individual risk for a plant of polymeric materials (and nanomaterials).

  12. Probabilistic risk assessment: Number 219

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bari, R.A.

    1985-01-01

    This report describes a methodology for analyzing the safety of nuclear power plants. A historical overview of plants in the US is provided, and past, present, and future nuclear safety and risk assessment are discussed. A primer on nuclear power plants is provided with a discussion of pressurized water reactors (PWR) and boiling water reactors (BWR) and their operation and containment. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), utilizing both event-tree and fault-tree analysis, is discussed as a tool in reactor safety, decision making, and communications. (FI)

  13. Risk assessment using probabilistic standards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Avila, R.

    2004-01-01

    A core element of risk is uncertainty represented by plural outcomes and their likelihood. No risk exists if the future outcome is uniquely known and hence guaranteed. The probability that we will die some day is equal to 1, so there would be no fatal risk if sufficiently long time frame is assumed. Equally, rain risk does not exist if there was 100% assurance of rain tomorrow, although there would be other risks induced by the rain. In a formal sense, any risk exists if, and only if, more than one outcome is expected at a future time interval. In any practical risk assessment we have to deal with uncertainties associated with the possible outcomes. One way of dealing with the uncertainties is to be conservative in the assessments. For example, we may compare the maximal exposure to a radionuclide with a conservatively chosen reference value. In this case, if the exposure is below the reference value then it is possible to assure that the risk is low. Since single values are usually compared; this approach is commonly called 'deterministic'. Its main advantage lies in the simplicity and in that it requires minimum information. However, problems arise when the reference values are actually exceeded or might be exceeded, as in the case of potential exposures, and when the costs for realizing the reference values are high. In those cases, the lack of knowledge on the degree of conservatism involved impairs a rational weighing of the risks against other interests. In this presentation we will outline an approach for dealing with uncertainties that in our opinion is more consistent. We will call it a 'fully probabilistic risk assessment'. The essence of this approach consists in measuring the risk in terms of probabilities, where the later are obtained from comparison of two probabilistic distributions, one reflecting the uncertainties in the outcomes and one reflecting the uncertainties in the reference value (standard) used for defining adverse outcomes. Our first aim

  14. Prospective Study of Fasting Blood Glucose and Intracerebral Hemorrhagic Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Cheng; Li, Guohong; Rexrode, Kathryn M; Gurol, Mahmut E; Yuan, Xiaodong; Hui, Ying; Ruan, Chunyu; Vaidya, Anand; Wang, Yanxiu; Wu, Shouling; Gao, Xiang

    2018-01-01

    Although diabetes mellitus is an established independent risk factor for ischemic stroke, the association between fasting blood glucose and intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) is limited and inconsistent. The objective of the current study was to examine the potential impact of long-term fasting blood glucose concentration on subsequent risk of ICH. This prospective study included 96 110 participants of the Kailuan study, living in Kailuan community, Tangshan city, China, who were free of cardiovascular diseases and cancer at baseline (2006). Fasting blood glucose concentration was measured in 2006, 2008, 2010, and 2012. Updated cumulative average fasting blood glucose concentration was used as primary exposure of the current study. Incident ICH from 2006 to 2015 was confirmed by review of medical records. During 817 531 person-years of follow-up, we identified 755 incident ICH cases. The nadir risk of ICH was observed at fasting blood glucose concentration of 5.3 mmol/L. The adjusted hazard ratios and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of ICH were 1.59 (95% CI, 1.26-2.02) for diabetes mellitus or fasting blood glucose ≥7.00 mmol/L, 1.31 (95% CI, 1.02-1.69) for impaired fasting blood glucose (fasting blood glucose, 6.10-6.99 mmol/L), 0.98 (95% CI, 0.78-1.22) for fasting blood glucose 5.60 to 6.09 mmol/L, and 2.04 (95% CI, 1.23-3.38) for hypoglycemia (fasting blood glucose, fasting blood glucose 4.00 to 5.59 mmol/L. The results persisted after excluding individuals who used hypoglycemic, aspirin, antihypertensive agents, or anticoagulants, and those with intracerebral hemorrhagic cases occurred in the first 2 years of follow-up. In this large community-based cohort, low (fasting blood glucose concentrations were associated with higher risk of incident ICH, relative to fasting blood glucose concentrations of 4.00 to 6.09 mmol/L. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

  15. Dynamical systems probabilistic risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Denman, Matthew R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Ames, Arlo Leroy [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2014-03-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is the primary tool used to risk-inform nuclear power regulatory and licensing activities. Risk-informed regulations are intended to reduce inherent conservatism in regulatory metrics (e.g., allowable operating conditions and technical specifications) which are built into the regulatory framework by quantifying both the total risk profile as well as the change in the risk profile caused by an event or action (e.g., in-service inspection procedures or power uprates). Dynamical Systems (DS) analysis has been used to understand unintended time-dependent feedbacks in both industrial and organizational settings. In dynamical systems analysis, feedback loops can be characterized and studied as a function of time to describe the changes to the reliability of plant Structures, Systems and Components (SSCs). While DS has been used in many subject areas, some even within the PRA community, it has not been applied toward creating long-time horizon, dynamic PRAs (with time scales ranging between days and decades depending upon the analysis). Understanding slowly developing dynamic effects, such as wear-out, on SSC reliabilities may be instrumental in ensuring a safely and reliably operating nuclear fleet. Improving the estimation of a plant's continuously changing risk profile will allow for more meaningful risk insights, greater stakeholder confidence in risk insights, and increased operational flexibility.

  16. Probabilistic risk assessment as an aid to risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garrick, B.J.

    1982-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessments are providing important insights into nuclear power plant safety. Their value is two-fold: first as a means of quantifying nuclear plant risk including contributors to risk, and second as an aid to risk management. A risk assessment provides an analytical plant model that can be the basis for performing meaningful decision analyses for controlling safety. It is the aspect of quantitative risk management that makes probabilistic risk assessment an important technical discipline of the future

  17. Methodology for technical risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waganer, L.M.; Zuckerman, D.S.

    1983-01-01

    A methodology has been developed for and applied to the assessment of the technical risks associated with an evolving technology. This methodology, originally developed for fusion by K. W. Billman and F. R. Scott at EPRI, has been applied to assess the technical risk of a fuel system for a fusion reactor. Technical risk is defined as the risk that a particular technology or component which is currently under development will not achieve a set of required technical specifications (i.e. probability of failure). The individual steps in the technical risk assessment are summarized. The first step in this methodology is to clearly and completely quantify the technical requirements for the particular system being examined. The next step is to identify and define subsystems and various options which appear capable of achieving the required technical performance. The subsystem options are then characterized regarding subsystem functions, interface requirements with the subsystems and systems, important components, developmental obstacles and technical limitations. Key technical subsystem performance parameters are identified which directly or indirectly relate to the system technical specifications. Past, existing and future technical performance data from subsystem experts are obtained by using a Bayesian Interrogation technique. The input data is solicited in the form of probability functions. Thus the output performance of the system is expressed as probability functions

  18. Consent for blood transfusion: do patients understand the risks and benefits?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheung, D; Lieberman, L; Lin, Y; Callum, J

    2014-10-01

    Blood transfusion is a frequent medical intervention in hospitals. The benefits of, risks of and alternatives to blood transfusions are not consistently understood by patients. The objective of this study was to assess gaps in knowledge and comfort with the current process of consenting patients for blood transfusions. A standardised video regarding the risk and benefits of blood transfusions was developed and feedback regarding this tool was assessed. After informed consent had been obtained, 25 patients receiving their first transfusion at a single academic centre were asked to complete a survey, watch a standardised educational video and complete a follow-up survey. The patient survey revealed that the information recollected from informed consent discussions was variable and incomplete. After the informed consent discussion, the majority of patients were comfortable with having a blood transfusion, although one-third did express concerns or worry about having a blood transfusion. After viewing the video, patients felt that the video improved their understanding of the risks (7·3 of 10), benefits (6·9 of 10) and alternatives (7·1 of 10) to transfusion, but it did not change their comfort with blood transfusion consent. Patients experienced a variable informed consent process prior to blood transfusion. Although the video improved their understanding of risks, it did not improve patient comfort towards giving consent for transfusion as the level of comfort was already high. The video is available online (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RxaPnLkgh-0) as an optional resource for patients (and physicians) who wish to receive standardised and accurate information about blood transfusions. © 2014 British Blood Transfusion Society.

  19. Ecological risk assessment: Lessons learned?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1993-01-01

    This conference was held November 14--18, 1993 in Houston, Texas for the purpose of providing a forum for exchange of state-of-the-art information on ecological risk assessment. This book is comprised of the abstracts of the presentations at this symposium. Individual abstracts have been processed separately for inclusion in the appropriate data bases

  20. Where You Live: Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Where you live page shows visitors to the risk assessment website how to contact their local regional office by state. Since these link to pages maintained by the local offices they will have the most up-to-date contact information.

  1. Risk factors for inappropriate blood requisition among hospitals in Tanzania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mauka, Wilhellmuss I; Mtuy, Tara B; Mahande, Michael J; Msuya, Sia E; Mboya, Innocent B; Juma, Abdul; Philemon, Rune N

    2018-01-01

    Blood is a critical aspect of treatment in life saving situations, increasing demand. Blood requisition practices greatly effect sufficient supply in blood banks. This study aimed to determine the risk factors for inappropriate blood requisition in Tanzania. This was a cross sectional study using secondary data of 14,460 patients' blood requests from 42 transfusion hospitals. Primary data were obtained by using cluster-sampling design. Data were analysed using a two-level mixed-effects Poisson regression to determine fixed-effects of individual-level factors and hospital level factors associated with inappropriate blood requests. P-value Factors significantly associated with inappropriate requisition were; reporting pulse rate and capillary refill decrease the risk (RR 0.74; 95% CI 0.64, 0.84) and (RR 0.73; 95% CI 0.63, 0.85) respectively and the following increased the risk; having surgery during hospital stay (RR 1.22; 95% CI 1.06, 1.4); being in general surgical ward (RR 3.3; 95% CI 2.7, 4.2), paediatric ward (RR 1.8; 95% CI 1.2, 2.7), obstetric ward (RR 2.5; 95% CI 2.0, 3.1), gynaecological ward (RR 2.1; 95% CI 1.5, 2.9), orthopaedics ward (RR 3.8; 95% CI 2.2, 6.7). Age of the patient, pallor and confirmation of pre-transfusion haemoglobin level were also significantly associated with inappropriate requisition. Majority of appropriate requisitions within the wards were marked in internal medicine (91.7%) and gynaecological wards (77.8%). The proportion of inappropriate blood requests was high. Blood requisition was determined by clinical and laboratory findings and the ward patients were admitted to. Adherence to transfusion guidelines is recommended to assure the best use of limited blood supply.

  2. [Immunologic risk analysis of blood transfusion: 1991-1998].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rouger, P; Le Pennec, P Y; Noizat-Pirenne, F

    2000-02-01

    The immunologic risk associated to erythrocyte transfusions is bound to the polymorphism of blood group systems and to the respect of blood transfusion regulations. The results of three studies are presented, which were carried out respectively by the French Society of Blood Transfusion, the National Institute of Blood Transfusion and the National Haemovigilance Network. Two hundred and twenty-seven cases of immunologic accidents are analysed using the Kaplan's interpretation model and the traditional method of process analysis. The results show three critical factors in the occurrence of this type of incident: the relevance of the clinical examinations prescribed, the way in which the biological results are taken into account, and the relationship/exchange of information between private and public hospitals, and blood transfusion centers.

  3. Risk of ocular blood splatter during oculofacial plastic surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stacey, Andrew W; Czyz, Craig N; Kondapalli, Srinivas Sai A; Hill, Robert H; Everman, Kelly R; Cahill, Kenneth V; Foster, Jill A

    2015-01-01

    To assess intraoperative blood splatter to the ocular surface and adnexa during oculofacial surgery. Four surgeons and multiple assistants at three separate locations wore a total of 331 protective eye shields during 131 surgeries. Postoperatively, a luminol blood detection system was used to identify blood splatter on the shields. In the event of positive blood splatter, the total number of blood spots was counted. Controls were used to verify the blood detection protocol. A postoperative questionnaire was given to all surgeons and assistants after each case, and they were asked whether intraoperative blood splatter was noticed. Blood was detected on 61% of eye shields and in a total of 80% of surgical cases. However, only 2% of blood splatters were recognized intraoperatively by the surgical participants. There was no significant difference in the splatter rate between surgeons (64%), assistants (60%), and surgical technicians (58%) (p = 0.69). Shields worn during full-thickness eyelid procedures, direct brow lifting, orbitotomy with bony window, and orbital fracture repairs were more likely to be splattered (p = 0.03), and there was a significant difference between splatter rates among different surgeons (range, 29-90%; p = 0.0004), suggesting that blood splatter rate may be both procedure dependent and surgeon dependent. Mucocutaneous and transconjunctival transmission of human immunodeficiency virus and viral hepatitis has been documented. These results suggest that oculofacial plastic surgeons should consider eye protection for patients with known blood-borne diseases and in cases where blood splatter is expected. This precautionary practice is supported by the high incidence (98%) of undetected, intraoperative blood splatter.

  4. Emerging risks and outcomes of blood transfusion in surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shander, Aryeh

    2004-01-01

    Prior to 1900, blood transfusions were fraught with danger and often caused more complications than the underlying disease. Discovery of the ABO compatibility system in the early twentieth century opened the modern era of blood transfusion, yet ABO incompatibility-as a result of clerical error-remains a significant threat to the recipient today. The risk of disease transmission now includes new and emerging agents, such as Trepanosoma cruzii and West Nile Virus (WNV), as well as other existing pathogens. Transfusion-related immunomodulation (TRIM) presents a further risk to recipient patients. Confounding these problems are shortages of safe blood and the accelerated rise in the cost of blood due to increased testing. Outcome data on transfusion therapy have not always been favorable, particularly in the areas of postoperative infection, systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), multiple organ failure (MOF), and mortality. Such data have generated extensive efforts to determine association versus underlying cause of post-transfusion complications. In addition, unprecedented global initiatives to minimize the use of allogeneic blood are on the way. Options may include, but are not limited to, the use of "blood substitutes," although validation of such products is still required. In the meantime, blood product conservation techniques should become part of routine transfusion medicine.

  5. An approach to risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simonsen, L.; Lund, S. P.; Hass, Ulla

    1998-01-01

    of Ministers with the task to propose criteria for neurotoxicity. Functional effects on the nervous system, such as reduction in memory and learning ability, decrease in attention, and alteration of behavior due to toxic chemicals in the environment is now being acknowledged as an important public health...... indicate that numerous persons are exposed in the working as well as in the general environment to several chemicals, for which almost no data on the effect on subtle neurophysiological functions are available. Development of an approach to risk assessment dealing with this problem is a major challenge...... in the nineties. Different approaches to risk assessment are discussed, the quality of the databases available for hazard assessment are evaluated, and the needs for further research are identified. (C) 1996 Intox Press, Inc....

  6. Objective identification of sexual risk behavior among blood donors in Croatia: is it reality?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miskulin, Maja; Puntaric, Dinko; Bozikov, Jadranka; Miskulin, Ivan; Ruzman, Natasa

    2012-01-01

    The objective of this study is to determine the prevalence of blood donors positive for herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2), to identify the patterns of sexual risk behavior responsible for HSV-2 positivity and to assess the reliability of HSV-2 positivity as a marker of sexual risk behavior in the study population. This cross-sectional study included 423 blood donors of both sexes from eastern Croatia. Their blood samples were tested by ELISA IgG test kit for HSV-2 IgG and Western blot. Data on sexual risk behavior were collected by use of an anonymous questionnaire. Western blot testing showed HSV-2 IgG antibodies in 14 of 423 (3.3%) donor blood samples. The most common patterns of sexual risk behavior potentially associated with test positivity were irregular condom use during sexual intercourse with new partners (294/423; 69.5%) and > or = 5 sexual partners during lifetime (213/423; 50.4%). The population of blood donors from eastern Croatia included subgroups of subjects characterized by sexual risk behavior. Study results pointed to a relationship between various forms of sexual risk behavior and HSV-2 positivity, which could therefore serve as a reliable marker of sexual risk behavior in the study population.

  7. Effects of endurance training on blood pressure, blood pressure-regulating mechanisms, and cardiovascular risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cornelissen, Véronique A; Fagard, Robert H

    2005-10-01

    Previous meta-analyses of randomized controlled trials on the effects of chronic dynamic aerobic endurance training on blood pressure reported on resting blood pressure only. Our aim was to perform a comprehensive meta-analysis including resting and ambulatory blood pressure, blood pressure-regulating mechanisms, and concomitant cardiovascular risk factors. Inclusion criteria of studies were: random allocation to intervention and control; endurance training as the sole intervention; inclusion of healthy sedentary normotensive or hypertensive adults; intervention duration of > or =4 weeks; availability of systolic or diastolic blood pressure; and publication in a peer-reviewed journal up to December 2003. The meta-analysis involved 72 trials, 105 study groups, and 3936 participants. After weighting for the number of trained participants and using a random-effects model, training induced significant net reductions of resting and daytime ambulatory blood pressure of, respectively, 3.0/2.4 mm Hg (Phypertensive study groups (-6.9/-4.9) than in the others (-1.9/-1.6; Pendurance training decreases blood pressure through a reduction of vascular resistance, in which the sympathetic nervous system and the renin-angiotensin system appear to be involved, and favorably affects concomitant cardiovascular risk factors.

  8. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with...

  9. Risk assessment of radiation carcinogenesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kai, Michiaki

    2012-01-01

    This commentary describes the radiation cancer risk assessed by international organizations other than ICRP, assessed for radon and for internal exposure, in the series from the aspect of radiation protection of explaining the assessments done until ICRP Pub. 103. Statistic significant increase of cancer formation is proved at higher doses than 100-200 mSv. At lower doses, with use of mathematical model, United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) reported the death probability due to the excess lifetime risk (ELR) at 100 mSv of 0.36-0.77% for solid tumors and 0.03-0.05% for leukemia, and NRC in US, the risk of exposure-induced prevalence and death (REID) per 100 thousands persons of 800 (male)/1,310 (female) and 410/610, respectively. Both are essentially based on findings in A-bomb survivors. The assessment for Rn is described here not on dose. UK and US analyses of pooled raw data in case control studies revealed the significant increase of lung cancer formation at as low level as 100 Bq Rn/m3. Their analyses also showed the significance of smoking, which had been realized as a confounding factor in risk analysis of Rn for uranium miners. The death probability until the age of 85 y was found to be 1.2 x 10 -4 in non-smokers and 24 x 10 -4 in smokers/ Working Level Month (WLM). Increased thyroid cancer incidence has been known in Chernobyl Accident, which is realized as a result of internal exposure of radioiodine; however, the relationship between the internal dose to thyroid and its cancer prevalence resembles that in the case of external exposure. There is no certain evidence against the concept that risk of internal exposure is similar to and/or lower than, the external one although assessment of the internal exposure risk accompanies uncertainty depending on the used model and ingested dose. International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) recommendations hitherto have been important and precious despite

  10. assessment of measures of adiposity that correlate with blood

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    health risk.8 Furthermore, its correlation with adiposity .... Data Management: Data were analyzed using the ... had good blood pressure control with no gender .... Journal of internal medicine. ... consensus statement from shaping America's.

  11. Performance assessment - risk assessment vive la differences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nitschke, R.L.

    1997-01-01

    In the sister worlds of radioactive waste management disposal and environmental restoration, there are two similar processes and computational approaches for determining the acceptability of the proposed activities. While similar, these two techniques can lead to confusion and misunderstanding if the differences are not recognized and appreciated. In the case of radioactive waste management, the performance assessment process is used to determine compliance with certain prescribed 'performance objectives'. These objectives are designed to ensure that the disposal of radioactive (high-level, low-level, and/or transuranic) waste will be protective of human health and the environment. The environmental link is primarily through assuring protection of the groundwater as a resource. In the case of environmental restoration, the risk assessment process is used to determine the proper remedial action response, if any, for a past hazardous waste release. The process compares the 'no action' or 'leave as is' option with both carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic values for human health to determine the need for any action and to help to help determine just what the appropriate action would need to be. The impacts to the ecological system are evaluated in a slightly, different but similar fashion. Now the common objectives between these two processes notwithstanding. There are some key and fundamental differences that need to be answered that make direct comparisons or a common approach inappropriate. Failure to recognize this can lead to confusion and misunderstanding. This can be particularly problematic when one is faced with an active disposal facility located within the boundaries of an environmental restoration site as is the case at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL). Through a critical evaluation of the performance assessment and risk assessment processes, highlighting both similarities and differences, it is hoped that greater understanding and appreciation

  12. RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES

    OpenAIRE

    Oksana G. Feoktistova; Igor K. Turkin; Sergey V. Barinov

    2017-01-01

    The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate pre...

  13. The infectious disease blood safety risk of Australian hemochromatosis donations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoad, Veronica; Bentley, Peter; Bell, Barbara; Pathak, Praveen; Chan, Hiu Tat; Keller, Anthony

    2016-12-01

    It has been suggested that blood donors with hereditary hemochromatosis may pose an increased infectious disease risk and adversely affect recipient outcomes. This study compares the infectious disease risk of whole blood (WB) donors enrolled as therapeutic (T) donors to voluntary WB donors to evaluate the safety of blood products provided by the T donors. This was a retrospective cohort study of all WB donations at the Australian Red Cross Blood Service who donated between January 1, 2011, and December 31, 2013, comparing a yearly mean of 11,789 T donors with 107,773 total donations and a yearly mean of 468,889 voluntary WB donors with 2,584,705 total donations. We compared postdonation notification of infectious illnesses, bacterial contamination screening results, and positive tests for blood borne viruses in T and WB donors. Rates of transfusion-transmissible infections in donations destined for component manufacture were significantly lower in therapeutic donations compared to voluntary donations (8.4 vs. 21.6 per 100,000 donations). Bacterial contamination (43.0 vs. 45.9 per 100,000 donations) and postdonation illness reporting (136.2 vs. 110.8 per 100,000 donations) were similar in both cohorts. The Australian therapeutic venisection program enables T donors to provide a safe and acceptable source of donated WB that has a low infectious disease risk profile. © 2016 AABB.

  14. Risk assessment and societal choices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Otway, H J

    1975-02-15

    Many countries are experiencing a period in which traditional values are being questioned; plans for further technological progress are being met by a variety of demands for a closer examination of the benefits and risks of large-scale technologies. In this paper the concepts of risk assessment are presented and a model is proposed which illustrates the importance of socio-psychological mechanisms in the acceptance of technological risks. The research plan of the Joint IAEA/IIASA Research Project is outlined: this work is directed toward gaining an improved understanding of how societies judge the acceptability of technologies and how societal attitudes and anticipated responses may be better integrated into the decision-making process. Some preliminary results are reported. (author)

  15. Risk assessment and societal choices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Otway, H.J.

    1975-01-01

    Many countries are experiencing a period in which traditional values are being questioned; plans for further technological progress are being met by a variety of demands for a closer examination of the benefits and risks of large-scale technologies. In this paper the concepts of risk assessment are presented and a model is proposed which illustrates the importance of socio-psychological mechanisms in the acceptance of technological risks. The research plan of the Joint IAEA/IIASA Research Project is outlined: this work is directed toward gaining an improved understanding of how societies judge the acceptability of technologies and how societal attitudes and anticipated responses may be better integrated into the decision-making process. Some preliminary results are reported. (author)

  16. Fire Risk Assessment in Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berg, H. P.

    2000-01-01

    Quantitative fire risk assessment can serve as an additional tool to assess the safety level of a nuclear power plant (NPP) and to set priorities for fire protection improvement measures. The recommended approach to be applied within periodic safety reviews of NPPs in Germany starts with a screening process providing critical fire zones in which a fully developed fire has the potential to both cause an initiating event and impair the function of at least one component or system critical to safety. The second step is to perform a quantitative analysis using a standard event tree has been developed with elements for fire initiation, ventilation of the room, fire detection, fire suppression, and fire propagation. In a final step, the fire induced frequency of initiating events, the main contributors and the calculated hazard state frequency for the fire event are determined. Results of the first quantitative fire risk studies performed in Germany are reported. (author)

  17. Hydrocarbons pipeline transportation risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zanin, A. V.; Milke, A. A.; Kvasov, I. N.

    2018-04-01

    The pipeline transportation applying risks assessment issue in the arctic conditions is addressed in the paper. Pipeline quality characteristics in the given environment has been assessed. To achieve the stated objective, the pipelines mathematical model was designed and visualized by using the software product SOLIDWORKS. When developing the mathematical model the obtained results made possible to define the pipeline optimal characteristics for designing on the Arctic sea bottom. In the course of conducting the research the pipe avalanche collapse risks were examined, internal longitudinal and circular loads acting on the pipeline were analyzed, as well as the water impact hydrodynamic force was taken into consideration. The conducted calculation can contribute to the pipeline transport further development under the harsh climate conditions of the Russian Federation Arctic shelf territory.

  18. Probabilistic risk assessment of HTGRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleming, K.N.; Houghton, W.J.; Hannaman, G.W.; Joksimovic, V.

    1980-08-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment methods have been applied to gas-cooled reactors for more than a decade and to HTGRs for more than six years in the programs sponsored by the US Department of Energy. Significant advancements to the development of PRA methodology in these programs are summarized as are the specific applications of the methods to HTGRs. Emphasis here is on PRA as a tool for evaluating HTGR design options. Current work and future directions are also discussed

  19. Probabilistic risk assessment of HTGRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleming, K.N.; Houghton, W.J.; Hannaman, G.W.; Joksimovic, V.

    1981-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment methods have been applied to gas-cooled reactors for more than a decade and to HTGRs for more than six years in the programs sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy. Significant advancements to the development of PRA methodology in these programs are summarized as are the specific applications of the methods to HTGRs. Emphasis here is on PRA as a tool for evaluating HTGR design options. Current work and future directions are also discussed. (author)

  20. Risk Assessment of Shellfish Toxins

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rex Munday

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Complex secondary metabolites, some of which are highly toxic to mammals, are produced by many marine organisms. Some of these organisms are important food sources for marine animals and, when ingested, the toxins that they produce may be absorbed and stored in the tissues of the predators, which then become toxic to animals higher up the food chain. This is a particular problem with shellfish, and many cases of poisoning are reported in shellfish consumers each year. At present, there is no practicable means of preventing uptake of the toxins by shellfish or of removing them after harvesting. Assessment of the risk posed by such toxins is therefore required in order to determine levels that are unlikely to cause adverse effects in humans and to permit the establishment of regulatory limits in shellfish for human consumption. In the present review, the basic principles of risk assessment are described, and the progress made toward robust risk assessment of seafood toxins is discussed. While good progress has been made, it is clear that further toxicological studies are required before this goal is fully achieved.

  1. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.

  2. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms open-quote risk assessment close-quote and open-quote risk management close-quote are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of open-quotes... the most significant data and uncertainties...close quotes in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are open-quotes...those that define and explain the main risk conclusionsclose quotes. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation

  3. Risk perception and its role in attitudes toward blood transfusion: a qualitative systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngo, Ly Thi; Bruhn, Roberta; Custer, Brian

    2013-04-01

    Despite improvements in blood safety making transfusion a much safer clinical procedure, the general public still perceives it as risky. We systematically reviewed available literature to examine evidence regarding the reasons and causes behind this perception. Electronic databases including PubMed, Cochrane Library, and EMBASE for literature dating back to the 1980s were searched. Eligible studies collected information on blood recipients' demographics, measures of risk domains (sets of values that risks encompass), and general knowledge of blood transfusion in terms of risks and benefits. Each study was assessed for quality of data, research method, and relevant findings. A scoring system was used to subjectively rate the overall quality of each study. Each study was reviewed for its method of data collection and information abstracted on hazards and conceptual dimensions used to measure risk. Risk perception between blood transfusion and other hazards including alternatives to transfusion were compared. Fifteen studies met the inclusion criteria, all of which were conducted outside the United States, with most of the studies published more than 10 years ago and conducted by only 3 research groups. Five studies were rated as being very good, four good, five fair, and one of poor quality. The finding of the studies consistently show that objective or raw knowledge is not correlated with risk perception, but subjective or calibrated knowledge is. Thus, it is what people think they know rather than what they actually do know that influences risk perception of transfusion. Of the 3 common conceptual domains-dread, unknown risk, and benefits-blood transfusion was found to be of intermediate dread, intermediate unknown risk, and most beneficial compared with other hazards. Donated blood was found to have lower perceived risk than all other alternatives to transfusion, except for use of autologous blood. There is a lack of recent studies on allogeneic transfusion

  4. Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Knaap, L.M.; Leenarts, L.E.W.; Born, M.P.; Oosterveld, P.

    2012-01-01

    Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the

  5. Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Knaap, Leontien M.; Leenarts, Laura E. W.; Born, Marise Ph.; Oosterveld, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the generalizability of their results. The present study…

  6. Radioisotope method for assessing skin blood pressure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tarkowska, A.; Misiunia, P.; Woytowicz, A.; Olewinski, T.

    1979-01-01

    A method of measuring the skin blood pressure (SBP) evolved by Holstein and Lassen is described. The method is based on determination of the force of pressure causing blockade of Na 131 I clearance from the site of its intradermal injection. Using this method it was found that in the lower extremities in healthy subjects the SBP approached the diastolic pressure measured by the conventional method in the brachial artery. On the other hand in patients with obliterative arteriosclerosis and in Buerger's disease the SBP was considerably lower than the diastolic arterial pressure. The authors think that the method gives a good insight into the state of blood supply to the extremities in healthy subjects and in peripheral vascular failure. (author)

  7. Risk of malaria transmission through blood transfusion and its detection by serological method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rahman, M.; Akhtar, G.N.; Rashid, S.; Lodhi, Y.

    2003-01-01

    Objective: To assess the risk of transmission of malaria through blood transfusion, and compare efficacy of testing by immuno chromatographic (ICT) devices vis a vis peripheral blood film (PBF). Results: Amongst healthy blood donors we did not find even a single case of malaria and there was no report of persistent post transfusion pyrexia. We are unable to comment on species frequency in blood donors. However, amongst known patients of malaria we found a higher frequency of Plasmodium viax(P.v) as compared to Plasmodium falciparum(P.f). Testing by serological method, helped us to diagnose 5% of our patients who were missed by peripheral blood films. Conclusion: Between properly selected voluntary non-remunerated blood donors the incidence of malaria transmission is zero and the blood is safe for transfusion. Serological testing shows good correlation with peripheral blood film detection. In fact, it can detect the disease even when film detection has been unsuccessful. If proper donor selection criteria are observed there is little risk of transmitting malaria through transfusion. However, as the donor pool in the Service is not necessarily totally the of voluntary non-remunerated donors and substantive numbers of replacement/first time, occasionally uneducated/unaware donors, are being bled, screening for malaria will not be totally unrewarding. (author)

  8. Total cardiovascular disease risk assessment: a review.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2011-09-01

    The high risk strategy for the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) requires an assessment of an individual\\'s total CVD risk so that the most intensive risk factor management can be directed towards those at highest risk. Here we review developments in the assessment and estimation of total CVD risk.

  9. Longitudinal assessment of high blood pressure in children with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwimmer, Jeffrey B; Zepeda, Anne; Newton, Kimberly P; Xanthakos, Stavra A; Behling, Cynthia; Hallinan, Erin K; Donithan, Michele; Tonascia, James

    2014-01-01

    Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) affects 9.6% of children and may put these children at elevated risk of high blood pressure and subsequent cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Therefore, we sought to determine the prevalence of and risk factors for high blood pressure in children with NAFLD. Cohort study performed by the NIDDK NASH Clinical Research Network. There were 484 children with NAFLD ages 2 to 17 at enrollment; 382 children were assessed both at enrollment and 48 weeks afterwards. The main outcomes were high blood pressure at baseline and persistent high blood pressure at both baseline and 48 weeks. Prevalence of high blood pressure at baseline was 35.8% and prevalence of persistent high blood pressure was 21.4%. Children with high blood pressure were significantly more likely to have worse steatosis than children without high blood pressure (mild 19.8% vs. 34.2%, moderate 35.0% vs. 30.7%, severe 45.2% vs. 35.1%; P = 0.003). Higher body mass index, low-density lipoprotein, and uric acid were independent risk factors for high blood pressure (Odds Ratios: 1.10 per kg/m2, 1.09 per 10 mg/dL, 1.25 per mg/dL, respectively). Compared to boys, girls with NAFLD were significantly more likely to have persistent high blood pressure (28.4% vs.18.9%; P = 0.05). In conclusion, NAFLD is a common clinical problem that places children at substantial risk for high blood pressure, which may often go undiagnosed. Thus blood pressure evaluation, control, and monitoring should be an integral component of the clinical management of children with NAFLD.

  10. Longitudinal assessment of high blood pressure in children with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeffrey B Schwimmer

    Full Text Available Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD affects 9.6% of children and may put these children at elevated risk of high blood pressure and subsequent cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Therefore, we sought to determine the prevalence of and risk factors for high blood pressure in children with NAFLD.Cohort study performed by the NIDDK NASH Clinical Research Network. There were 484 children with NAFLD ages 2 to 17 at enrollment; 382 children were assessed both at enrollment and 48 weeks afterwards. The main outcomes were high blood pressure at baseline and persistent high blood pressure at both baseline and 48 weeks.Prevalence of high blood pressure at baseline was 35.8% and prevalence of persistent high blood pressure was 21.4%. Children with high blood pressure were significantly more likely to have worse steatosis than children without high blood pressure (mild 19.8% vs. 34.2%, moderate 35.0% vs. 30.7%, severe 45.2% vs. 35.1%; P = 0.003. Higher body mass index, low-density lipoprotein, and uric acid were independent risk factors for high blood pressure (Odds Ratios: 1.10 per kg/m2, 1.09 per 10 mg/dL, 1.25 per mg/dL, respectively. Compared to boys, girls with NAFLD were significantly more likely to have persistent high blood pressure (28.4% vs.18.9%; P = 0.05.In conclusion, NAFLD is a common clinical problem that places children at substantial risk for high blood pressure, which may often go undiagnosed. Thus blood pressure evaluation, control, and monitoring should be an integral component of the clinical management of children with NAFLD.

  11. [Risk Assessment and Risk Management of Chemicals in China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Tie-yu; Zhou, Yun-qiao; Li, Qi-feng; Lü, Yong-long

    2016-02-15

    Risk assessment and risk management have been increasingly approved as an effective approach for appropriate disposal and scientific management of chemicals. This study systematically analyzed the risk assessment methods of chemicals from three aspects including health risk, ecological risk and regional risk. Based on the current situation of classification and management towards chemicals in China, a specific framework of risk management on chemicals was proposed by selecting target chemicals, predominant industries and related stakeholders as the objects. The results of the present study will provide scientific support for improving risk assessment and reasonable management of chemicals in China.

  12. Risk communication and environmental risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petts, J.

    1994-01-01

    This paper attempts to provide a broad context for consideration of appropriate risk communication approaches. It examines the basis of public concerns and in particular the non-risk dimensions. The latter are so important in any risk decision that means of communication which can deal with them are required which extend beyond understanding how to present risk estimates. These means relate to (a) the decision processes themselves and the extent to which they provide for involvement of the public in decisions, (b) the communication skills of experts, and (c) the robustness of the risk information which is available. (Author)

  13. Assessment of glycaemic, lipid and blood pressure control among ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Diabetes mellitus (DM) is a metabolic disorder primarily characterized by elevated blood glucose levels and microvascular andmacrovascular complications. Near normal glycaemia will reduce the risk for development of microvascular disease complications, but aggressive management of traditional cardio-vascular risk ...

  14. Molecular radiobiology and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Georgieva, R.

    2009-01-01

    Full text: Attitudes towards the radiation protection standards on in Europe and the world largely depends on scientific knowledge, periodically published by the United Nations Scientific Committee (UNSCEAR) and the recommendations of the International Commission on Radiation Protection (ICRP), which also comply with the research. The new scientific evidence by conducting an additional research is a crucial element in the process of protection of people, workers and patients in medicine from the adverse health effects. Although these standards are clear and easy to apply, there is serious doubt from a scientific perspective about the level of health risk at low doses, which keep up a fierce debate, both eight scientific and political society. The answer to this question requires the integrated efforts of many scientific disciplines. Increasingly rapid advances in biological and medical knowledge provide the necessary conditions for achieving this aim. This lecture tries to shed light on the current state of knowledge, the main unresolved problems in science in the context of radiation protection and risk assessment, and on those lines of research that have the greatest potential to address the issues. They mainly concern issues of doses and biological effects of different types of ionisation radiation, biological effects in cells/tissues which initiate health effects at low doses, individual variability and direct health risk assessment by epidemiological studies of groups exposed to lower doses irradiation

  15. Impact of sickle cell trait on the thrombotic risk associated with non-O blood groups in northern Nigeria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, Sagir G; Kagu, Modu B; Ibrahim, Umma A; Bukar, Audu A

    2015-10-01

    The non-O blood group is an established risk factor for deep vein thrombosis (DVT), while controversy surrounds the role of sickle cell trait (SCT) as a risk factor for DVT. We hypothesised that if SCT is a risk factor for DVT, individuals with non-O blood groups and SCT (Hb AS) would have a higher risk of DVT than their counterparts with non-O blood groups and normal haemoglobin phenotype (Hb AA). We retrospectively analysed the prevalence of SCT and non-O blood groups among 148 DVT patients with control subjects in order to determine the role of SCT as a risk factor for DVT and its impact on the risk of DVT among patients with non-O blood groups. In comparison with control subjects, DVT patients had significantly higher prevalences of SCT (35.1% vs 27.7%, p=0.04) and non-O blood groups (68.9% vs 45.9%, p=0.02). The odds ratios for DVT due to SCT, non-O blood groups with normal Hb phenotype (Hb AA) and non-O blood groups with SCT (Hb AS) were 1.3, 2.4 and 3.5, respectively. These results suggest that SCT by itself is a weak risk factor for DVT but it has the potential of escalating the DVT risk among patients with non-O blood groups. The combined effects of elevated clotting factors (non-O group effect) and increased clotting factor activation (SCT effect) were responsible for the escalated DVT risk among patients with co-inheritance of non-O blood groups and SCT. Co-inheritance of SCT and non-O blood group is, therefore, an important mixed risk factor for DVT. This should be taken into account when assessing DVT risk profiles of patients in Africa and other parts of the world where the SCT is prevalent.

  16. [New viral risks in blood transfusion by 2016].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pozzetto, B; Garraud, O

    2016-02-01

    Viral safety remains a major concern in transfusion of blood products. Over years, the control measures applied to blood products were made more and more sophisticated; however, the number of infectious agents, and notably of viruses, that can be transmitted by transfusion is increasing continuously. The aim of this review paper is to actualize that published in the same journal by the same authors in 2011 with more details on some of actual vs virtual viral threats that were identified recently in the field of blood transfusion. The main subjects that are covered successively concern the transmission via transfusion of hepatitis E virus, the frequency of transfusion transmitted arboviruses, transfusion at the time of the Ebola epidemics in West Africa, the debated role of Marseillevirus (giant viruses infecting amoebae and suspected to infect human blood latently), and, finally, the recent report of the identification in blood donors of a new member of the Flaviviridae family. The addition of these new viral risks to those already identified-partially controlled or not-pleads for the urgent need to move forward to considering inactivation of infectious agents in blood products. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  17. Cancer risk among 21st century blood transfusion recipients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, T O; Cairns, B J; Reeves, G K; Green, J; Beral, V

    2017-02-01

    Some carcinogenic viruses are known to be transmissible by blood transfusion. Intensive viral screening of transfused blood now exists in most countries. In the UK, high-sensitivity nucleic acid amplification tests for hepatitis C virus were introduced in 1999 and it was thought that this would reduce, and possibly eliminate, transfusion-related liver cancer. We aimed to investigate cancer risk in recipients of blood transfusion in 2000 or after. A total of 1.3 million UK women recruited in 1998 on average were followed for hospital records of blood transfusion and for cancer registrations. After excluding women with cancer or precancerous conditions before or at the time of transfusion, Cox regression yielded adjusted relative risks of 11 site-specific cancers for women with compared to without prior blood transfusion. During follow up, 11 274 (0.9%) women had a first recorded transfusion in 2000 or after, and 1648 (14.6%) of them were subsequently diagnosed with cancer, a mean 6.8 years after the transfusion. In the first 5 years after transfusion there were significant excesses for most site-specific cancers examined, presumably because some had preclinical cancer. However, 5 or more years (mean 8 years) after blood transfusion, there were significant excess risks only for liver cancer (adjusted relative risk = 2.63, 95%CI 1.45-4.78) and for non-Hodgkin lymphoma (adjusted relative risk = 1.74, 1.21-2.51). When analyses were restricted to those undergoing hip or knee replacement surgery, the commonest procedure associated with transfusion, these relative risks were not materially altered. In a large cohort of UK women, transfusions in the 21st century were associated with long-term increased risks of liver cancer and non-Hodgkin lymphoma. Some of these malignancies may have been caused by carcinogenic agents that are not currently screened for in transfused blood. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society

  18. Assessment of hand blood flow: a modified technique

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirsh, J.C.; Tepperman, P.S.

    1985-01-01

    A blood flow artifact has been identified with the conventional bolus-injection technique in radionuclide studies of hand disorders. The artifact, consisting of increased blood flow on the injected side, was demonstrated in 22 of 25 subjects. Using a modified injection technique to allow time for local blood flow to return to the basal state, the artifact could be eliminated in 19 of 23 additional subjects. Use of this simple protocol should help avoid misinterpretation of blood flow asymmetry in the assessment of hand disorders

  19. Concept of risk: risk assessment and nuclear safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, P.B.

    1980-01-01

    The dissertation is a critical examination of risk assessment and its role in public policy. Nuclear power safety safety issues are selected as the primary source of illustrations and examples. The dissertation examines how risk assessment studies develop a concept of risk which becomes decisive for policy choices. Risk-assessment techniques are interpreted as instruments which secure an evaluation of risk which, in turn, figures prominently in technical reports on nuclear power. The philosophical critique is mounted on two levels. First, an epistemological critique surveys distinctions between the technical concept of risk and more familiar senses of risk. The critique shows that utilization of risk assessment re-structures the concept of risk. The technical concept is contrasted to the function of risk within a decision-maker's conceptual agenda and hierarchy of values. Second, an ethical critique exposes the value commitments of risk assessment recommendations. Although some of these values might be defended for policy decisions, the technical character of risk assessment obfuscates normative issues. Risk assessment is shown to be a form of factual enquiry which, nonetheless, represents a commitment to a specific selection of ethical and social values. Risk assessment should not be interpreted as a primary guide to decision unless the specific values incorporated into its concept of risk are stated explicitly and justified philosophically. Such a statement would allow value questions which have been sublimated by the factual tone of the analytic techniques to be debated on clear, social and ethical grounds

  20. Risk assessment terminology: risk communication part 1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gaetano Liuzzo

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes the terminology of risk communication in the view of food safety: the theory of stakeholders, the citizens’ involvement and the community interest and consultation are reported. Different aspects of risk communication (public communication, scientific uncertainty, trust, care, consensus and crisis communication are discussed.

  1. Baseline Blood Pressure, the 2017 ACC/AHA High Blood Pressure Guidelines, and Long-Term Cardiovascular Risk in SPRINT.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaduganathan, Muthiah; Pareek, Manan; Qamar, Arman; Pandey, Ambarish; Olsen, Michael H; Bhatt, Deepak L

    2018-02-05

    The 2017 American College of Cardiology (ACC)/American Heart Association (AHA) guidelines include lower thresholds to define hypertension than previous guidelines. Little is known about the impact of these guideline changes in patients with or at high risk for cardiovascular disease. In this exploratory analysis using baseline blood pressure assessments in Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial (SPRINT), we evaluated the prevalence and associated cardiovascular prognosis of patients newly reclassified with hypertension based on the 2017 ACC/AHA (systolic blood pressure ≥130 mm Hg or diastolic blood pressure ≥80 mm Hg) compared with the Seventh Report of the Joint National Committee on Prevention, Detection, Evaluation and Treatment of High Blood Pressure (JNC 7) guidelines (systolic blood pressure ≥140 mm Hg or diastolic blood pressure ≥90 mm Hg). The primary endpoint was the composite of myocardial infarction, other acute coronary syndromes, stroke, heart failure, or cardiovascular death. In 4683 patients assigned to the standard treatment arm of SPRINT, 2328 (49.7%) met hypertension thresholds by JNC 7 guidelines, and another 1424 (30.4%) were newly reclassified as having hypertension based on the 2017 ACC/AHA guidelines. Over 3.3-year median follow-up, 319 patients experienced the primary endpoint (87 of whom were newly reclassified with hypertension based on the revised guidelines). Patients with hypertension based on prior guidelines compared with those newly identified with hypertension based on the new guidelines had similar risk of the primary endpoint (2.3 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 2.0-2.7] vs 2.0 [95% CI, 1.6-2.4] events per 100 patient-years; adjusted HR, 1.10 [95% CI, 0.84-1.44]; P = .48). The 2017 ACC/AHA high blood pressure guidelines are expected to significantly increase the prevalence of patients with hypertension (perhaps to a greater extent in higher-risk patient cohorts compared with the general population) and

  2. White blood cell subtypes and risk of type 2 diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Hongmei; Yang, Zhen; Zhang, Weiwei; Niu, Yixin; Li, Xiaoyong; Qin, Li; Su, Qing

    2017-01-01

    It is reported that total white blood cell is associated with risk of diabetes mellitus. The present study is to investigate the relationship of white blood cell subsets with incidence of type 2 diabetes at baseline and 3year follow-up. We chose individuals without diabetes history as our study population; 8991 individuals were included at baseline. All of the participants underwent a 75-g OGTT at baseline. White blood cell count including all the subsets were measured along with all the other laboratory indices. The participants who were not diagnosed with type 2 diabetes according to the WHO 1999 diagnostic criteria underwent another 75-g OGTT at 3year follow-up. The total WBC count, neutrophil count, and lymphocyte count were significantly increased in subjects newly diagnosed with diabetes mellitus compared to non-DM subjects at baseline (all ptype 2 diabetes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szabo Alina

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in the area and the professional expertise, this article outlines an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management reporting processes, by separating the risk in two main categories: strategic and operational risks. The focus is on risk prioritization and scoring; the final output will comprise a mix of strategic and operational (‘top 8-12’ risks, which should be used to establish the annual Internal Audit plan. Originality/value: By using an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management will eliminate the need for a separate Internal Audit risk assessment over prevailing risks. It will reduce the level of risk assessment overlap by different functions (Tax, Treasury, Information System over the same risk categories as a single methodology, is used and will align timings of risk assessment exercises. The risk prioritization by usage of risk and control scoring criteria highlights the combination between financial and non-financial impact criteria allowing risks that do not naturally lend themselves to a financial amount to be also assessed consistently. It is emphasized the usage of score method to prioritize the risks included in the annual audit plan in order to increase accuracy and timelines.

  4. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahlmann, Ralf; Horvath, Aniko

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage) assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems. PMID:26195922

  5. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahlmann, Ralf; Horvath, Aniko

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage) assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems.

  6. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stahlmann, Ralf

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems.

  7. The Association between ABO and Rh Blood Groups and Risk of Endometriosis in Iranian Women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malekzadeh, Farideh; Moini, Ashraf; Amirchaghmaghi, Elham; Daliri, Leila; Akhoond, Mohammad Reza; Talebi, Mehrak; Hosseini, Rihaneh

    2018-06-01

    Endometriosis is a common gynaecological disease that affects quality of life for women. Several studies have revealed that both environmental and genetic factors contribute to the development of endometriosis. The aim of this study was to investigate the distribution of ABO and Rh blood groups in Iranian women with endometriosis who presented to two referral infertility centers in Tehran, Iran. In this case-control study, women who referred to Royan Institute and Arash Women's Hospital for diagnostic laparoscopy between 2013 and 2014 were assessed. Based on the laparoscopy findings, we categorized the women into two groups: endometriosis and control (women without endometriosis and normal pelvis). Chi-square and logistic regression tests were used for data analysis. In this study, we assessed 433 women, of which 213 patients were assigned to the endometriosis group while the remaining 220 subjects comprised the control group. The most frequent ABO blood group was O (40.6%). The least frequent blood group was AB (4.8%). In terms of Rh blood group, Rh+ (90.1%) was more frequent than Rh- (9.9%). There was no significant correlation between ABO (P=0.091) and Rh (P=0.55) blood groups and risk of endometriosis. Also, there was no significant difference between the two groups with regards to the stage of endometriosis and distribution of ABO and Rh blood groups (P>0.05). Although the O blood group was less dominant in Iranian women with endometriosis, we observed no significant correlation between the risk of endometriosis and the ABO and Rh blood groups. Endometriosis severity was not correlated to any of these blood groups. Copyright© by Royan Institute. All rights reserved.

  8. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

  9. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-01-01

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

  10. The assessment of technical risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaeger, T.A.

    1978-01-01

    The safety of technical systems is so difficult to assess because the concept 'risk' contains technical-scientific factors as well as components of individual and social psychology. Immediate or short-term hazards of human life as i.e. caused by the operation of industrial plants and mediate and thus long-term hazards have to be distinguished. Characteristic for the second hazard groups is the great time-lag before the effect takes place. Thus a causal relationship can be recognized only late and not definitely. Even when the causes have been obviated the effects still show. The development of a systems-analytical model as a basis of decisive processes for the introduction of highly endangered large-scale technologies seems particularly difficult. A starting point for the quantification of the risk can still be seen in the product of the probability of realization and the extent of the damage. Public opinion, however, does not base its evaluations on an objective concept of risk but tends to have an attitude of aversion against great and disastrous accidents. On the other hand, plenty of slight accidents are accepted much more easily, even when the amount of deadly victims from accidents reaches dimensions beyond those of the rare large-scale accidents. Here, mostly the damage possible but not the probability of its occurence is seen, let alone the general use of the new technology. The value of the mathematical models for estimating risks is mainly due to the fact that they are able to clear up decisions. (orig./HP) [de

  11. Blood pressure and cardiovascular risk: what about cocoa and chocolate?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grassi, Davide; Desideri, Giovambattista; Ferri, Claudio

    2010-09-01

    Cocoa flavonoids are able to reduce cardiovascular risk by improving endothelial function and decreasing blood pressure (BP). Interest in the biological activities of cocoa is daily increasing. A recent meta-analysis shows flavanol-rich cocoa administration decreases mean systolic (-4.5mm Hg; pcocoa effects on cardiovascular health focusing on putative mechanisms of action and nutritional and "pharmacological" viewpoints. Cocoa consumption could play a pivotal role in human health. 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Risk factors and assessment for cardiovascular disease among HIV ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Methods: this was a cross-sectional study of HIV-positive patients attending the Lagos University Teaching Hospital, Nigeria. Anthropometric and blood pressure measurements were performed; fasting lipid profile, plasma glucose, homocysteine and hsCRP were determined, as well as prevalences and risk assessments.

  13. Chagas disease, a risk factor for high blood pressure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vicco, Miguel Hernán; Rodeles, Luz; Yódice, Agustina; Marcipar, Iván

    2014-12-01

    Chagas disease is a parasite infection caused by the protozoan Trypanosoma cruzi. Its most common complications is chronic Chagas heart disease but impairments of the systemic vasculature also has been observed. Although the different mechanisms that regulate blood pressure are disrupted, to our knowledge data on the association of hypertension and chronic Chagas disease are scarce. In this regard we evaluate whether Chagas disease constitutes a high blood pressure risk factor. We recruited 200 individuals, half of them with positive serology for T. cruzi. They were subjected to a complete clinical examination. The mean age of sampled individuals was 46.7 ± 12.3, and the mean of systolic and diastolic blood pressure were 124 ± 12 mmHg and 82 ± 10 mmHg, respectively. There were no between-group differences regarding age, sex distribution or body mass index. Chagas disease contributed significantly to high blood pressure (OR = 4, 95% CI 1.8323-7.0864, p = 0.0002). Our results reveal an important association between Chagas disease and high blood pressure, which should be contemplated by physicians in order to promote preventive cardiovascular actions in patients with Chagas disease.

  14. Assessing pharmacy students' ability to accurately measure blood pressure using a blood pressure simulator arm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bottenberg, Michelle M; Bryant, Ginelle A; Haack, Sally L; North, Andrew M

    2013-06-12

    To compare student accuracy in measuring normal and high blood pressures using a simulator arm. In this prospective, single-blind, study involving third-year pharmacy students, simulator arms were programmed with prespecified normal and high blood pressures. Students measured preset normal and high diastolic and systolic blood pressure using a crossover design. One hundred sixteen students completed both blood pressure measurements. There was a significant difference between the accuracy of high systolic blood pressure (HSBP) measurement and normal systolic blood pressure (NSBP) measurement (mean HSBP difference 8.4 ± 10.9 mmHg vs NSBP 3.6 ± 6.4 mmHg; pdifference between the accuracy of high diastolic blood pressure (HDBP) measurement and normal diastolic blood pressure (NDBP) measurement (mean HDBP difference 6.8 ± 9.6 mmHg vs. mean NDBP difference 4.6 ± 4.5 mmHg; p=0.089). Pharmacy students may need additional instruction and experience with taking high blood pressure measurements to ensure they are able to accurately assess this important vital sign.

  15. Assessing Pharmacy Students’ Ability to Accurately Measure Blood Pressure Using a Blood Pressure Simulator Arm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bryant, Ginelle A.; Haack, Sally L.; North, Andrew M.

    2013-01-01

    Objective. To compare student accuracy in measuring normal and high blood pressures using a simulator arm. Methods. In this prospective, single-blind, study involving third-year pharmacy students, simulator arms were programmed with prespecified normal and high blood pressures. Students measured preset normal and high diastolic and systolic blood pressure using a crossover design. Results. One hundred sixteen students completed both blood pressure measurements. There was a significant difference between the accuracy of high systolic blood pressure (HSBP) measurement and normal systolic blood pressure (NSBP) measurement (mean HSBP difference 8.4 ± 10.9 mmHg vs NSBP 3.6 ± 6.4 mmHg; pdifference between the accuracy of high diastolic blood pressure (HDBP) measurement and normal diastolic blood pressure (NDBP) measurement (mean HDBP difference 6.8 ± 9.6 mmHg vs. mean NDBP difference 4.6 ± 4.5 mmHg; p=0.089). Conclusions. Pharmacy students may need additional instruction and experience with taking high blood pressure measurements to ensure they are able to accurately assess this important vital sign. PMID:23788809

  16. A prospective blood RNA signature for tuberculosis disease risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zak, Daniel E.; Penn-Nicholson, Adam; Scriba, Thomas J.; Thompson, Ethan; Suliman, Sara; Amon, Lynn M.; Mahomed, Hassan; Erasmus, Mzwandile; Whatney, Wendy; Hussey, Gregory D.; Abrahams, Deborah; Kafaar, Fazlin; Hawkridge, Tony; Verver, Suzanne; Hughes, E. Jane; Ota, Martin; Sutherland, Jayne; Howe, Rawleigh; Dockrell, Hazel M.; Boom, W. Henry; Thiel, Bonnie; Ottenhoff, Tom H.M.; Mayanja-Kizza, Harriet; Crampin, Amelia C; Downing, Katrina; Hatherill, Mark; Valvo, Joe; Shankar, Smitha; Parida, Shreemanta K; Kaufmann, Stefan H.E.; Walzl, Gerhard; Aderem, Alan; Hanekom, Willem A.

    2016-01-01

    Background Identification of blood biomarkers that prospectively predict progression of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection to tuberculosis disease may lead to interventions that impact the epidemic. Methods Healthy, M. tuberculosis infected South African adolescents were followed for 2 years; blood was collected every 6 months. A prospective signature of risk was derived from whole blood RNA-Sequencing data by comparing participants who ultimately developed active tuberculosis disease (progressors) with those who remained healthy (matched controls). After adaptation to multiplex qRT-PCR, the signature was used to predict tuberculosis disease in untouched adolescent samples and in samples from independent cohorts of South African and Gambian adult progressors and controls. The latter participants were household contacts of adults with active pulmonary tuberculosis disease. Findings Of 6,363 adolescents screened, 46 progressors and 107 matched controls were identified. A 16 gene signature of risk was identified. The signature predicted tuberculosis progression with a sensitivity of 66·1% (95% confidence interval, 63·2–68·9) and a specificity of 80·6% (79·2–82·0) in the 12 months preceding tuberculosis diagnosis. The risk signature was validated in an untouched group of adolescents (p=0·018 for RNA-Seq and p=0·0095 for qRT-PCR) and in the independent South African and Gambian cohorts (p values Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, the National Institutes of Health, Aeras, the European Union and the South African Medical Research Council (detail at end of text). PMID:27017310

  17. ABO Blood Type and Stroke Risk: The REasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zakai, Neil A.; Judd, Suzanne E.; Alexander, Kristine; McClure, Leslie A.; Kissela, Brett M.; Howard, George; Cushman, Mary

    2016-01-01

    Background ABO blood type is an inherited trait associated with coagulation factor levels and vascular outcomes. Objectives To assess the association of blood type with stroke and whether blood type contributes to racial disparities in stroke in the United States. Patients and Methods The REasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) Study recruited 30,239 participants between 2003-07. Using a case-cohort design, blood type was genotyped in 646 participants with stroke and a 1,104 participant cohort random sample. Cox models adjusting for Framingham stroke risk factors assessed the association of blood type with stroke. Results Over 5.8 years of follow-up, blood types A or B versus type O were not associated with stroke. Blood type AB versus O was associated with an increased risk of stroke (adjusted HR 1.83; 95% CI 1.01, 3.30). The association of blood type AB versus O was greater in those without diabetes (adjusted HR 3.33; 95% CI 1.61, 6.88) than those with diabetes (adjusted HR 0.49; 95% CI 0.17, 1.44) (p-interaction = 0.02). Factor VIII levels accounted for 60% (95% CI 11%, 98%) of the association of AB blood type and stroke risk. Conclusion Blood type AB is associated with an increased risk of stroke that is not attenuated by conventional stroke risk factors and factor VIII levels were associated with 60% of the association. While blood type AB is rare in the U.S. population, it is a significant stroke risk factor and may play an important role in stroke risk in these individuals. PMID:24444093

  18. Emerging Infectious Diseases and Blood Safety: Modeling the Transfusion-Transmission Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiely, Philip; Gambhir, Manoj; Cheng, Allen C; McQuilten, Zoe K; Seed, Clive R; Wood, Erica M

    2017-07-01

    While the transfusion-transmission (TT) risk associated with the major transfusion-relevant viruses such as HIV is now very low, during the last 20 years there has been a growing awareness of the threat to blood safety from emerging infectious diseases, a number of which are known to be, or are potentially, transfusion transmissible. Two published models for estimating the transfusion-transmission risk from EIDs, referred to as the Biggerstaff-Petersen model and the European Upfront Risk Assessment Tool (EUFRAT), respectively, have been applied to several EIDs in outbreak situations. We describe and compare the methodological principles of both models, highlighting their similarities and differences. We also discuss the appropriateness of comparing results from the two models. Quantitating the TT risk of EIDs can inform decisions about risk mitigation strategies and their cost-effectiveness. Finally, we present a qualitative risk assessment for Zika virus (ZIKV), an EID agent that has caused several outbreaks since 2007. In the latest and largest ever outbreak, several probable cases of transfusion-transmission ZIKV have been reported, indicating that it is transfusion-transmissible and therefore a risk to blood safety. We discuss why quantitative modeling the TT risk of ZIKV is currently problematic. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. The relation of risk assessment and health impact assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ádám, Balázs; Gulis, Gabriel

    2013-01-01

    than assessing a present situation. As part of this process, however, methods applied in risk assessment are used. Risk assessment typically characterises relation of a well-defined risk factor to a well-defined health outcome. Within HIA usually several individual risk assessments are needed...... of the causal chain from the proposal through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The stepwise analysis, systematic prioritization and consideration of horizontal interactions between the causal pathways make it feasible to use widely recognized risk assessment methods in the HIA......The level and distribution of health risks in a society is substantially influenced by measures of various policies, programmes or projects. Risk assessment can evaluate the nature, likelihood and severity of an adverse effect. Health impact assessment (HIA) provides similar function when used...

  20. Baseline Blood Pressure, the 2017 ACC/AHA High Blood Pressure Guidelines, and Long-Term Cardiovascular Risk in SPRINT

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vaduganathan, Muthiah; Pareek, Manan; Qamar, Arman

    2018-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The 2017 ACC/AHA guidelines include lower thresholds to define hypertension than previous guidelines. Little is known about the impact of these guideline changes in patients with or at high risk for cardiovascular disease. METHODS: In this exploratory analysis using baseline blood...... pressure assessments in SPRINT (Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial), we evaluated the prevalence and associated cardiovascular prognosis of patients newly reclassified with hypertension based on the 2017 ACC/AHA (SBP≥130mmHg or DBP≥80mmHg) compared with the JNC 7 guidelines (SBP≥140mmHg or DBP≥90mm.......4%) were newly reclassified as having hypertension based on the 2017 ACC/AHA guidelines. Over 3.3-year median follow-up, 319 patients experienced the primary endpoint (87 of whom were newly reclassified with hypertension based on the revised guidelines). Patients with hypertension based on prior guidelines...

  1. [Assessment of a transfusion emergent risk: the case of HEV].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pillonel, J; Gallian, P; Sommen, C; Couturier, E; Piquet, Y; Djoudi, R; Laperche, S

    2014-11-01

    The risk assessment for blood transfusion is an essential step that must precede any screening strategy of a pathogen transmitted by transfusion. After several cases of HEV transmission by transfusion in France, a risk assessment for this virus was performed. We used a method based on the prevalence of HEV-RNA in plasmas collected for the preparation of SD-plasma. To estimate the rate of HEV-RNA positive among all blood donations, data on SD-plasma were adjusted on the following HEV risk factors: gender, age group and region of residence. We assumed that HEV risk factors were the same in plasma donors and whole blood donors. Among 57,101 plasma donations tested for HEV-RNA in 2013, 24 were positive (crude rate of 4.2 per 10,000 donations). After adjustment, the total number of HEV-RNA positive blood donations was estimated at 788, accounting for a rate of 2.65 per 10,000 donations (95% CI: 1.6-3.7) or 1 in 3800 donations (1 in 6,200-1 in 2,700). This rate was 12 times higher in men than in women, increased with age, and varied according to region of residence. The risk of blood donation contamination by HEV has been estimated to be 1 in 3800 donations in 2013. An essential input is still missing to assess now the risk in recipients: the minimum infectious dose. Furthermore, the risk in recipients has to be analyzed according to characteristics of transfused patients: presence of anti-HEV immunity, existence of chronic liver disease or immunodeficiency. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  2. Getting fire risk assessment right.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charters, David

    2012-06-01

    The NHS has one of the world's largest and most varied estates, which at any time accommodates many of the most dependent people in society. With around 6,000 fires occurring in NHS premises each year, its duty of care--and that of other healthcare providers--demands very close attention to fire safety. Here Dr David Charters BSc, PhD, CEng, FIFireE, MIMechE, MSFPE, director of Fire Engineering at BRE Global, an independent third party approvals body offering certification of fire, security, and sustainability products and services, examines the critical role of fire risk assessment, and explains why the process should provide the 'foundation' for effective fire safety measures.

  3. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cathryn Clarke Murray

    Full Text Available The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such "indirect risks" can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their "at-risk status" designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but-by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here-they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within.

  4. Social aspects of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Otway, H.J.; Linnerooth, J.; Niehaus, F.

    1977-01-01

    Plans for technological development have often been met by demands for a closer examination of the associated benefits and risks and the consideration of social values in public planning and decision processes. A theoretical framework for inter-disciplinary risk assessment studies is presented to aid the balancing of technical data with social values in decision making. Methods for obtaining value measures are reviewed and an attitude-based method is developed in detail; this model allows identification of the relative importance of the technical, psychological and social factors which underlie attitudes and indicates which factors differentiate between social groups. Results of a pilot application to nuclear power are summarized. For these subjects, different attitudes between pro and con were primarily due to strongly differing beliefs about the benefits of nuclear power. Preliminary results are reported of an application of this model with a heterogeneous sample drawn from the general public. The cognitive limitations which affect rationality in intuitive decision making are summarized as background to introduce formal decision methodologies for the use of attitude data in public decision making

  5. Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... 11/12/2014 Risk Calculator About the Tool Colorectal Cancer Risk Factors Download SAS and Gauss Code Page ... Rectal Cancer: Prevention, Genetics, Causes Tests to Detect Colorectal Cancer and Polyps Cancer Risk Prediction Resources Update November ...

  6. Quantitative assessment of limb blood flow using Tc-99m labeled red blood cells

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Itoh, Kazuo; Shougase, Takashi; Kawamura, Naoyuki; Tsukamoto, Eriko; Nakada, Kunihiro; Sakuma, Makoto; Furudate, Masayori

    1987-01-01

    A quantitative assessment of limb blood flow using a non-diffusible radioindicator, Tc-99m labeled red blood cells, was reported. This was an application of venous occlusion plethysmography using radionuclide which was originally proposed by M. Fukuoka et al. The peripheral blood flow (mean ± s.e.) of 30 legs in a normal control group was 1.87 ± 0.08 ml/100 ml/min. In heart diseases (46 legs), it was 1.49 ± 0.13 ml/100 ml/min. The limb blood flow between a control group and heart diseases was statistically significant (p < 0.01) in the t-test. The peripheral blood flow at rest between diseased legs and normal legs in occlusive arterial disorders was also statistically significant (p < 0.01) in a paired t-test. RAVOP was done after the completion of objective studies such as radionuclide angiography or ventriculography. Technique and calculation of a blood flow were very easy and simple. RAVOP study which was originally proposed by Fukuoka et al. was reappraised to be hopeful for quantitative measurement of limb blood flow as a non-invasive technique using Tc-99m labeled red blood cells. (author)

  7. Risk assessment of forensic patients: nurses' role.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Encinares, Maxima; McMaster, Jeff James; McNamee, Jim

    2005-03-01

    One of the unique roles of forensic nurses is to conduct risk assessments. Establishing a therapeutic nurse-patient relationship helps forensic nurses perform accurate and useful risk assessments. Accurate risk assessments can facilitate formulation of individualized risk management plans, designed to meet patients' needs and ensure public safety. The importance of forensic nurses' knowledge and application of appropriate communication and proper documentation cannot be overemphasized.

  8. Radiological safety and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hunter, P.H.; Barg, D.C.; Baird, R.D.; Card, D.H.; de Souza, F.; Elder, J.; Felthauser, K.; Jensen, C.; Winkler, V.

    1982-02-01

    A brief radiological safety and risk assessment of a nuclear power generation center with an adjacent on-site waste disposal facility at a specific site in the State of Utah is presented. The assessment was conducted to assist in determining the feasibility and practicality of developing a nuclear energy center (NEC) in Utah consisting of nine 1250 MWe nuclear pressurized water reactor (PWR) electrical generating units arranged in 3 clusters of 3 units each known as triads. The site selected for this conceptual study is in the Horse Bench area about 15 miles directly south of the town of Green River, Utah. The radiological issues included direct radiation exposures to on-site workers and the off-site population, release of radioactive material, and effects of these releases for both normal operations and accidental occurrences. The basic finding of this study is that the concept of an NEC in the Green River area, specifically at the Horse Bench site, is radiologically feasible

  9. Risk assessment - The future trend

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marks, G.A.

    1991-01-01

    Many organizations today are faced with cleaning a site or facility, selecting appropriate remedial alternatives, or explaining the potential effects on human health and the environment caused by the releases of toxic compounds into the air, soil, and water, The use of risk assessment (RA) as a management tool is increasing because it offers an integrated approach to the analysis of toxicological, geological, physio-chemical, meteorological, statistical, and biological parameters that must be evaluated in the assessment of potential impacts to human health. The regulatory atmosphere in the 1990s is leaning toward the adoption of further laws requiring the completion of the RA process. Any industry involved in submitting permit applications to Air Quality Management Districts or complying with California's Proposition 65 and AB 2588 will be required to prepare RAs. Several guidance documents are available that support the RA process including the California Site Mitigation Decision Tree Manual published by the State Department of Health Services (DHS), which bases its approach on developing cleanup objectives (Applied Action Levels) on RA. This presentation focuses on the applications RA can have to the petroleum industry and the kinds of data that each case should develop to make maximum use of the RA process

  10. Gender differences in risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christine R. Harris

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available Across many real-world domains, men engage in more risky behaviors than do women. To examine some of the beliefs and preferences that underlie this difference, 657 participants assessed their likelihood of engaging in various risky activities relating to four different domains (gambling, health, recreation, and social, and reported their perceptions of (1 probability of negative outcomes, (2 severity of potential negative outcomes, and (3 enjoyment expected from the risky activities. Women's greater perceived likelihood of negative outcomes and lesser expectation of enjoyment partially mediated their lower propensity toward risky choices in gambling, recreation, and health domains. Perceptions of severity of potential outcomes was a partial mediator in the gambling and health domains. The genders did not differ in their propensity towards taking social risks. A fifth domain of activities associated with high potential payoffs and fixed minor costs was also assessed. In contrast to other domains, women reported being more likely to engage in behaviors in this domain. This gender difference was partially mediated by women's more optimistic judgments of the probability of good outcomes and of

  11. Combined impact of lead, cadmium, polychlorinated biphenyls and non-chemical risk factors on blood pressure in NHANES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peters, Junenette L.; Patricia Fabian, M.; Levy, Jonathan I.

    2014-01-01

    High blood pressure is associated with exposure to multiple chemical and non-chemical risk factors, but epidemiological analyses to date have not assessed the combined effects of both chemical and non-chemical stressors on human populations in the context of cumulative risk assessment. We developed a novel modeling approach to evaluate the combined impact of lead, cadmium, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), and multiple non-chemical risk factors on four blood pressure measures using data for adults aged ≥20 years from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1999–2008). We developed predictive models for chemical and other stressors. Structural equation models were applied to account for complex associations among predictors of stressors as well as blood pressure. Models showed that blood lead, serum PCBs, and established non-chemical stressors were significantly associated with blood pressure. Lead was the chemical stressor most predictive of diastolic blood pressure and mean arterial pressure, while PCBs had a greater influence on systolic blood pressure and pulse pressure, and blood cadmium was not a significant predictor of blood pressure. The simultaneously fit exposure models explained 34%, 43% and 52% of the variance for lead, cadmium and PCBs, respectively. The structural equation models were developed using predictors available from public data streams (e.g., U.S. Census), which would allow the models to be applied to any U.S. population exposed to these multiple stressors in order to identify high risk subpopulations, direct intervention strategies, and inform public policy. - Highlights: • We evaluated joint impact of chemical and non-chemical stressors on blood pressure. • We built predictive models for lead, cadmium and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). • Our approach allows joint evaluation of predictors from population-specific data. • Lead, PCBs and established non-chemical stressors were related to blood pressure.

  12. Combined impact of lead, cadmium, polychlorinated biphenyls and non-chemical risk factors on blood pressure in NHANES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peters, Junenette L., E-mail: petersj@bu.edu; Patricia Fabian, M., E-mail: pfabian@bu.edu; Levy, Jonathan I., E-mail: jonlevy@bu.edu

    2014-07-15

    High blood pressure is associated with exposure to multiple chemical and non-chemical risk factors, but epidemiological analyses to date have not assessed the combined effects of both chemical and non-chemical stressors on human populations in the context of cumulative risk assessment. We developed a novel modeling approach to evaluate the combined impact of lead, cadmium, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), and multiple non-chemical risk factors on four blood pressure measures using data for adults aged ≥20 years from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1999–2008). We developed predictive models for chemical and other stressors. Structural equation models were applied to account for complex associations among predictors of stressors as well as blood pressure. Models showed that blood lead, serum PCBs, and established non-chemical stressors were significantly associated with blood pressure. Lead was the chemical stressor most predictive of diastolic blood pressure and mean arterial pressure, while PCBs had a greater influence on systolic blood pressure and pulse pressure, and blood cadmium was not a significant predictor of blood pressure. The simultaneously fit exposure models explained 34%, 43% and 52% of the variance for lead, cadmium and PCBs, respectively. The structural equation models were developed using predictors available from public data streams (e.g., U.S. Census), which would allow the models to be applied to any U.S. population exposed to these multiple stressors in order to identify high risk subpopulations, direct intervention strategies, and inform public policy. - Highlights: • We evaluated joint impact of chemical and non-chemical stressors on blood pressure. • We built predictive models for lead, cadmium and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). • Our approach allows joint evaluation of predictors from population-specific data. • Lead, PCBs and established non-chemical stressors were related to blood pressure.

  13. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mach, Megan E.; Martone, Rebecca G.; Singh, Gerald G.; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M. A.

    2016-01-01

    The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such “indirect risks” can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their “at-risk status” designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but—by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here—they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within. PMID:27632287

  14. Risk assessment and risk management in managed aquifer recharge

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Page, D

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This chapter presents the methodologies used for risk assessment and risk management in MAR in Australia and the European Union, qualitative and quantitative approaches adopted within the RECLAIM Water project and case studies where the outcomes...

  15. Regional scale ecological risk assessment: using the relative risk model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Landis, Wayne G

    2005-01-01

    ...) in the performance of regional-scale ecological risk assessments. The initial chapters present the methodology and the critical nature of the interaction between risk assessors and decision makers...

  16. Risk factors for blood transfusion after shoulder arthroplasty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padegimas, E M; Clyde, C T; Zmistowski, B M; Restrepo, C; Williams, G R; Namdari, S

    2016-02-01

    Currently, there is little information about the need for peri-operative blood transfusion in patients undergoing shoulder arthroplasty. The purpose of this study was to identify the rate of transfusion and its predisposing factors, and to establish a blood conservation strategy. We identified all patients who had undergone shoulder arthroplasty at our hospital between 1 January 2011 and 31 December 2013. The rate of transfusion was determined from the patient's records. While there were exceptions, patients typically underwent transfusion if they had a level of haemoglobin of transfusion. High- and low-risk cohorts for transfusion were identified from a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Of 1174 shoulder arthroplasties performed on 1081 patients, 53 cases (4.5%) required transfusion post-operatively. Predictors of blood transfusion were a lower pre-operative haematocrit (p transfusion. In total 48 of the 436 (11%) shoulder arthroplasties with a pre-operative haematocrit transfusion compared with five of the 738 (0.70%) shoulder arthroplasties with a haematocrit above this level. We found that transfusion was needed less frequently than previously described for shoulder arthroplasty. Patients with a pre-operative haematocrit blood transfusion, while those with a haematocrit above this level are unlikely to require transfusion. The rate of transfusion after shoulder arthroplasty is under 5%, and those with a pre-operative haematocrit greater than or equal to 39.6% have a very low likelihood (transfusion. ©2016 The British Editorial Society of Bone & Joint Surgery.

  17. Elevated blood pressure among primary school children in Dar es salaam, Tanzania: prevalence and risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muhihi, Alfa J; Njelekela, Marina A; Mpembeni, Rose N M; Muhihi, Bikolimana G; Anaeli, Amani; Chillo, Omary; Kubhoja, Sulende; Lujani, Benjamin; Maghembe, Mwanamkuu; Ngarashi, Davis

    2018-02-13

    Whilst the burden of non-communicable diseases is increasing in developing countries, little data is available on blood pressure among Tanzanian children. This study aimed at determining the blood pressure profiles and risk factors associated with elevated blood pressure among primary school children in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. We conducted a cross sectional survey among 446 children aged 6-17 years from 9 randomly selected primary schools in Dar es Salaam. We measured blood pressure using a standardized digital blood pressure measuring machine (Omron Digital HEM-907, Tokyo, Japan). We used an average of the three blood pressure readings for analysis. Elevated blood pressure was defined as average systolic or diastolic blood pressure ≥ 90th percentile for age, gender and height. The proportion of children with elevated blood pressure was 15.2% (pre-hypertension 4.4% and hypertension 10.8%). No significant gender differences were observed in the prevalence of elevated BP. Increasing age and overweight/obese children were significantly associated with elevated BP (p = 0.0029 and p < 0.0001) respectively. Similar associations were observed for age and overweight/obesity with hypertension. (p = 0.0506 and p < 0.0001) respectively. In multivariate analysis, age above 10 years (adjusted RR = 3.63, 95% CI = 1.03-7.82) was significantly and independently associated with elevated BP in this population of school age children. We observed a higher proportion of elevated BP in this population of school age children. Older age and overweight/obesity were associated with elevated BP. Assessment of BP and BMI should be incorporated in school health program in Tanzania to identify those at risk so that appropriate interventions can be instituted before development of associated complications.

  18. The association between cardiovascular risk factors and high blood pressure in adolescents: a school-based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christofaro, Diego G D; Fernandes, Rômulo A; Oliveira, Arli R; Freitas Júnior, Ismael Forte; Barros, Mauro V G; Ritti-Dias, Raphael M

    2014-01-01

    Although previous studies have analyzed the association between cardiovascular risk factors and blood pressure in adolescents, few studies conducted in developing countries analyzed whether the aggregation of risk factors contributes to an increased risk of high blood pressure in adolescents. The objective of this study was to assess the association between cardiovascular risk factors (including general overweight, abdominal obesity, high consumption of foods rich in fats, and insufficient physical activity levels) and high blood pressure in adolescents. This study was carried out from 2007 to 2008 with 1021 adolescents (528 girls) from primary schools located in the city of Londrina- Brazil. Blood pressure was assessed using an oscillometric device. General overweight was obtained through body mass index, abdominal obesity was assessed using waist circumference, and the consumption of foods rich in fat and physical activity were assessed using a questionnaire. The sum of these risk factors was determined. Adolescents with three or four aggregated risk factors were more likely to have higher values of systolic and diastolic blood pressure when compared with adolescents who did not have any cardiovascular risk factors (P = 0.001 for both). Logistic regression indicated that groups of adolescents with 2 (OR= 2.46 [1.11-5.42]; P = 0.026), 3 (OR= 4.97 [2.07-11.92]; P = 0.001) or 4 risk factors (OR= 6.79 [2.24-19.9]; P = 0.001) presented an increased likelihood of high blood pressure. The number of cardiovascular risk factors was found to be related to high blood pressure in adolescents. Copyright © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  19. Risk assessment of metal vapor arcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Monika C. (Inventor); Leidecker, Henning W. (Inventor)

    2009-01-01

    A method for assessing metal vapor arcing risk for a component is provided. The method comprises acquiring a current variable value associated with an operation of the component; comparing the current variable value with a threshold value for the variable; evaluating compared variable data to determine the metal vapor arcing risk in the component; and generating a risk assessment status for the component.

  20. Model of MSD Risk Assessment at Workplace

    OpenAIRE

    K. Sekulová; M. Šimon

    2015-01-01

    This article focuses on upper-extremity musculoskeletal disorders risk assessment model at workplace. In this model are used risk factors that are responsible for musculoskeletal system damage. Based on statistic calculations the model is able to define what risk of MSD threatens workers who are under risk factors. The model is also able to say how MSD risk would decrease if these risk factors are eliminated.

  1. Risk assessment and management in IOR projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goodyear, S.G.; Gregory, A.T.

    1994-01-01

    The application of IOR techniques is one of the investment opportunities open to Exploration and Production companies. A project will only go forward if the perceived balance between the rewards and the risks is acceptable. IOR projects may be ruled out because they are considered to involve significantly higher risks than conventional developments. Therefore, some means of evaluating the actual level of risk may be required if the full economic benefits from IOR techniques are to be realized. Risk assessment is a key element in safety cases, where a well-established methodology for quantifying risk exists. This paper discusses the extension of these methods to IOR project risk assessment. Combining reservoir and IOR technique uncertainties with their impact on project performance allows project risk to be better quantified. The results of the risk assessment are presented in terms of a risk-reward diagram that plots the probability surface for possible project outcomes as a function of NPV (reward) and exposure (risk)

  2. Cardiovascular disease risk factors in a Nigerian population with impaired fasting blood glucose level and diabetes mellitus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Oguoma, Victor M.; Nwose, Ezekiel U.; Ulasi, Ifeoma I.

    2017-01-01

    Background Diabetes is a risk factor for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and there are reports of increasing prevalence of prediabetes in Nigeria. This study therefore characterised CVDs risk factors in subjects with impaired fasting glucose (IFG) and diabetes. Methods Data from 4 population......-based cross-sectional studies on 2447 apparently healthy individuals from 18 - 89 years were analysed. Anthropometric, blood pressure and biochemical parameters were collected and classified. Individuals with IFG (prediabetes) and diabetes were merged each for positive cases of dyslipidaemia, high blood...... the need for risk assessment models for prediabetes and education of individuals at risk about factors that mitigate development of diabetes and CVDs....

  3. Methodology of environmental risk assessment management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saša T. Bakrač

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Successful protection of environment is mostly based on high-quality assessment of potential and present risks. Environmental risk management is a complex process which includes: identification, assessment and control of risk, namely taking measures in order to minimize the risk to an acceptable level. Environmental risk management methodology: In addition to these phases in the management of environmental risk, appropriate measures that affect the reduction of risk occurrence should be implemented: - normative and legal regulations (laws and regulations, - appropriate organizational structures in society, and - establishing quality monitoring of environment. The emphasis is placed on the application of assessment methodologies (three-model concept, as the most important aspect of successful management of environmental risk. Risk assessment methodology - European concept: The first concept of ecological risk assessment methodology is based on the so-called European model-concept. In order to better understand this ecological risk assessment methodology, two concepts - hazard and risk - are introduced. The European concept of environmental risk assessment has the following phases in its implementation: identification of hazard (danger, identification of consequences (if there is hazard, estimate of the scale of consequences, estimate of consequence probability and risk assessment (also called risk characterization. The European concept is often used to assess risk in the environment as a model for addressing the distribution of stressors along the source - path - receptor line. Risk assessment methodology - Canadian concept: The second concept of the methodology of environmental risk assessment is based on the so-called Canadian model-concept. The assessment of ecological risk includes risk arising from natural events (floods, extreme weather conditions, etc., technological processes and products, agents (chemical, biological, radiological, etc

  4. Blood coagulation and the risk of atherothrombosis: a complex relationship

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    van der Voort Danielle

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The principles of Virchov's triad appear to be operational in atherothrombosis or arterial thrombosis: local flow changes and particularly vacular wall damage are the main pathophysiological elements. Furthermore, alterations in arterial blood composition are also involved although the specific role and importance of blood coagulation is an ongoing matter of debate. In this review we provide support for the hypothesis that activated blood coagulation is an essential determinant of the risk of atherothrombotic complications. We distinguish two phases in atherosclerosis: In the first phase, atherosclerosis develops under influence of "classical" risk factors, i.e. both genetic and acquired forces. While fibrinogen/fibrin molecules participate in early plaque lesions, increased activity of systemic coagulation is of no major influence on the risk of arterial thrombosis, except in rare cases where a number of specific procoagulant forces collide. Despite the presence of tissue factor – factor VII complex it is unlikely that all fibrin in the atherosclerotic plaque is the direct result from local clotting activity. The dominant effect of coagulation in this phase is anticoagulant, i.e. thrombin enhances protein C activation through its binding to endothelial thrombomodulin. The second phase is characterized by advancing atherosclerosis, with greater impact of inflammation as indicated by an elevated level of plasma C-reactive protein, the result of increased production influenced by interleukin-6. Inflammation overwhelms protective anticoagulant forces, which in itself may have become less efficient due to down regulation of thrombomodulin and endothelial cell protein C receptor (EPCR expression. In this phase, the inflammatory drive leads to recurrent induction of tissue factor and assembly of catalytic complexes on aggregated cells and on microparticles, maintaining a certain level of thrombin production and fibrin formation. In advanced

  5. Risk Factors for Transfusion Transmissible Infections Elicited on Post Donation Counselling in Blood Donors: Need to Strengthen Pre-donation Counselling

    OpenAIRE

    Sachdev, Suchet; Mittal, Kshitija; Patidar, Gopal; Marwaha, Neelam; Sharma, Ratti Ram; Duseja, Ajay Kumar; Chawla, Yogesh Kumar; Arora, Sunil Kumar

    2014-01-01

    Donor notification and counselling transforms the legal and ethical requirement of disclosure of transfusion transmissible infection (TTI) in a blood donor into practice. The present study was done to assess the response to the disclosure of TTI reactivity results in blood donors, assess the risk factors in blood donors and follow the compliance of the disclosure and clinical referral in a population of blood donors who are difficult to convince that they may be harbouring infections apparent...

  6. Apperception and assessment of technological risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoyos, C.; Hauke, G.

    1986-01-01

    Risk is defined to be the possibility to induce damage or loss. Any person confronted with risk in his activities has to assess the risk in every case. The author explains a number of actions and events that have been worked out to train people in better management of risk, especially in the working environment. (DG) [de

  7. Performing the lockout/tagout risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallace, W Jon

    2007-03-01

    Lockout/tagout provides the greatest level routine, repetitive, and integral to the production process, a risk assessment should be performed. If the task performed poses an unacceptable risk, acceptable risk reduction methods should be implemented to reduce the risk to acceptable levels.

  8. Health economics and outcomes methods in risk-based decision-making for blood safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Custer, Brian; Janssen, Mart P

    2015-08-01

    Analytical methods appropriate for health economic assessments of transfusion safety interventions have not previously been described in ways that facilitate their use. Within the context of risk-based decision-making (RBDM), health economics can be important for optimizing decisions among competing interventions. The objective of this review is to address key considerations and limitations of current methods as they apply to blood safety. Because a voluntary blood supply is an example of a public good, analyses should be conducted from the societal perspective when possible. Two primary study designs are recommended for most blood safety intervention assessments: budget impact analysis (BIA), which measures the cost to implement an intervention both to the blood operator but also in a broader context, and cost-utility analysis (CUA), which measures the ratio between costs and health gain achieved, in terms of reduced morbidity and mortality, by use of an intervention. These analyses often have important limitations because data that reflect specific aspects, for example, blood recipient population characteristics or complication rates, are not available. Sensitivity analyses play an important role. The impact of various uncertain factors can be studied conjointly in probabilistic sensitivity analyses. The use of BIA and CUA together provides a comprehensive assessment of the costs and benefits from implementing (or not) specific interventions. RBDM is multifaceted and impacts a broad spectrum of stakeholders. Gathering and analyzing health economic evidence as part of the RBDM process enhances the quality, completeness, and transparency of decision-making. © 2015 AABB.

  9. Risk communication in environmental assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rahm-Crites, L. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., Germantown, MD (United States). Washington Operations Office

    1996-08-26

    Since the enactment of NEPA and other environmental legislation, the concept of `risk communication` has expanded from simply providing citizens with scientific information about risk to exploring ways of making risk information genuinely meaningful to the public and facilitating public involvement in the very processes whereby risk is analyzed and managed. Contemporary risk communication efforts attempt to find more effective ways of conveying increasingly complex risk information and to develop more democratic and proactive approaches to community involvement, in particular to ensuring the participation of diverse populations in risk decisions. Although considerable progress has been made in a relatively short time, risk communication researchers and practitioners currently face a number of challenges in a time of high expectations, low trust, and low budgets.

  10. Thyroid Cancer Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    The R package thyroid implements a risk prediction model developed by NCI researchers to calculate the absolute risk of developing a second primary thyroid cancer (SPTC) in individuals who were diagnosed with a cancer during their childhood.

  11. INCORPORATING NONCHEMICAL STRESSORS INTO CUMMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENTS

    Science.gov (United States)

    The risk assessment paradigm has begun to shift from assessing single chemicals using "reasonable worst case" assumptions for individuals to considering multiple chemicals and community-based models. Inherent in community-based risk assessment is examination of all stressors a...

  12. Relative Risk of Various Head and Neck Cancers among Different Blood Groups: An Analytical Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Khushboo; Kote, Sunder; Patthi, Basavaraj; Singla, Ashish; Singh, Shilpi; Kundu, Hansa; Jain, Swati

    2014-04-01

    Cancer is a unique disease characterized by abnormal growth of cells which have the ability to invade the adjacent tissues and sometimes even distant organs. The limited and contrasting evidence regarding the association of ABO blood groups with the different types of head and neck cancers in the Indian population warrants the need for the present study. To assess the relative risk of various Head & Neck cancers among different blood groups. Three hundred sixty two diagnosed cases of different type of head and neck cancers and 400 controls were selected from four hospitals of New Delhi, India. The information regarding the type of head and neck cancer was obtained from the case sheets of the patients regarding their socio demographic profile, dietary history using a structured performa. The information regarding type of cancer (cases only), ABO blood group was collected. Statistical Tests: The data was analysed using the SPSS 19 version. Chi square test and odd ratios were calculated. The level of significance was fixed at 5%. The O blood group was found to be most prevalent followed by B, A and AB among the cases as well as the controls. Oral cancer patients showed maximum number in blood group O followed by B, A and AB. Significant pattern of distribution was seen among the patients of esophageal cancer, laryngeal cancer and salivary gland cancer as well (p= 0.003, p=0.000 p=0.112 respectively. The present study reveals that there is an inherited element in the susceptibility or protection against different types of head and neck cancers. Blood group A was found to be a potential risk factor for the development of oral cancers, esophageal cancers and salivary gland cancers while blood group B was found to be a potential risk factor for laryngeal cancers.

  13. Relative Risk of Various Head and Neck Cancers among Different Blood Groups: An Analytical Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kote, Sunder; Patthi, Basavaraj; Singla, Ashish; Singh, Shilpi; Kundu, Hansa; Jain, Swati

    2014-01-01

    Background: Cancer is a unique disease characterized by abnormal growth of cells which have the ability to invade the adjacent tissues and sometimes even distant organs. The limited and contrasting evidence regarding the association of ABO blood groups with the different types of head and neck cancers in the Indian population warrants the need for the present study. Aim and Objective: To assess the relative risk of various Head & Neck cancers among different blood groups. Materials and Method: Three hundred sixty two diagnosed cases of different type of head and neck cancers and 400 controls were selected from four hospitals of New Delhi, India. The information regarding the type of head and neck cancer was obtained from the case sheets of the patients regarding their socio demographic profile, dietary history using a structured performa. The information regarding type of cancer (cases only), ABO blood group was collected. Statistical Tests: The data was analysed using the SPSS 19 version. Chi square test and odd ratios were calculated. The level of significance was fixed at 5%. Results: The O blood group was found to be most prevalent followed by B, A and AB among the cases as well as the controls. Oral cancer patients showed maximum number in blood group O followed by B, A and AB. Significant pattern of distribution was seen among the patients of esophageal cancer, laryngeal cancer and salivary gland cancer as well (p= 0.003, p=0.000 p=0.112 respectively. Conclusion: The present study reveals that there is an inherited element in the susceptibility or protection against different types of head and neck cancers. Blood group A was found to be a potential risk factor for the development of oral cancers, esophageal cancers and salivary gland cancers while blood group B was found to be a potential risk factor for laryngeal cancers. PMID:24959511

  14. Blood transfusion in primary total shoulder arthroplasty: incidence, trends, and risk factors in the United States from 2000 to 2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryan, Devon J; Yoshihara, Hiroyuki; Yoneoka, Daisuke; Zuckerman, Joseph D

    2015-05-01

    Total shoulder arthroplasty (TSA) may be associated with substantial blood loss, and some patients require perioperative blood transfusion. Possible blood transfusion methods include predonated autologous blood transfusion, perioperative autologous blood transfusion, and allogeneic blood transfusion (ALBT). The purposes of the present study were to assess the incidence and recent trends over time of blood transfusion in TSA and analyze patient and hospital characteristics that affect the risk of ALBT. This study used national hospital discharge data from the National Inpatient Sample between 2000 and 2009. The data were used to generate the overall blood transfusion rate, and linear regression was used to assess trends in transfusion patterns over time. Logistic regression analysis was performed to analyze which patient and hospital characteristics independently influence the likelihood that a given patient undergoes ALBT. The overall blood transfusion rate (ie, the proportion of patients who received at least 1 transfusion of any kind) was 6.7%. This rate increased over time, from 4.9% in 2000 to 7.1% in 2009 (P blood transfusion rate in TSA found in the present study may be related to factors specific to TSA, such as the introduction of reverse total shoulder arthroplasty during the study period. A variety of patient and hospital characteristics contribute to the risk of undergoing ALBT. Copyright © 2015 Journal of Shoulder and Elbow Surgery Board of Trustees. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. [Urban ecological risk assessment: a review].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Mei-E; Chen, Wei-Ping; Peng, Chi

    2014-03-01

    With the development of urbanization and the degradation of urban living environment, urban ecological risks caused by urbanization have attracted more and more attentions. Based on urban ecology principles and ecological risk assessment frameworks, contents of urban ecological risk assessment were reviewed in terms of driven forces, risk resources, risk receptors, endpoints and integrated approaches for risk assessment. It was suggested that types and degrees of urban economical and social activities were the driven forces for urban ecological risks. Ecological functional components at different levels in urban ecosystems as well as the urban system as a whole were the risk receptors. Assessment endpoints involved in changes of urban ecological structures, processes, functional components and the integrity of characteristic and function. Social-ecological models should be the major approaches for urban ecological risk assessment. Trends for urban ecological risk assessment study should focus on setting a definite protection target and criteria corresponding to assessment endpoints, establishing a multiple-parameter assessment system and integrative assessment approaches.

  16. Colon Cancer Risk Assessment - Gauss Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    An executable file (in GAUSS) that projects absolute colon cancer risk (with confidence intervals) according to NCI’s Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (CCRAT) algorithm. GAUSS is not needed to run the program.

  17. Risk assessment theory, methods, and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Rausand, Marvin

    2011-01-01

    With its balanced coverage of theory and applications along with standards and regulations, Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications serves as a comprehensive introduction to the topic. The book serves as a practical guide to current risk analysis and risk assessment, emphasizing the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants and transportation systems. The author applies a uniform framework to the discussion of each method, setting forth clear objectives and descriptions, while also shedding light on applications, essential resources, and advantages and disadvantages. Following an introduction that provides an overview of risk assessment, the book is organized into two sections that outline key theory, methods, and applications. * Introduction to Risk Assessment defines key concepts and details the steps of a thorough risk assessment along with the necessary quantitative risk measures. Chapters outline...

  18. Transmission of viral hepatitis by blood and blood derivatives: current risks, past heritage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prati, D

    2002-11-01

    For more than 40 years in the history of transfusion medicine, transmission of viral hepatitis from infected donors to recipients has been a frequent and serious adverse effect of the administration of blood components and plasma derivatives. This epidemic is now over, at least in developed and resource-rich countries. Hence, the attention of clinicians and investigators now focuses mainly on the measures to reduce the residual risk, on the possible emergence of novel or undiscovered agents causing post-transfusion hepatitis, and on the long-term outcome of patients who became infected more than ten years ago. The present article reviews these issues.

  19. Risk assessment - black art or science?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moore, G.

    1988-01-01

    Measures of risk can be divided into two categories, those that observe or calculate the risk of a process or project, and those that rely on the level of risk as perceived by the people during the assessment. Collection of data of accidents (where cause and effect are obvious) and experiments on animals which can then be extrapolated to humans, are two ways of risk assessment. Mathematical models and computerized simulations, using either fault tree analysis or Monte Carlo methods are explained simply. Using these methods, experts are able to perceive risk fairly realistically. However, the general public's perception of risk is often quite different, as potential risk is assessed in different ways. The concept of tolerable risk is considered, particularly with reference to nuclear reactors such as Sizewell-B. The need to inform the public of safeguards and safety procedures so they have a better understanding of the risks of nuclear power is stressed. (U.K.)

  20. Facts and values in risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cross, Frank B.

    1998-01-01

    Risk, as commonly understood, is a complex melange of facts, values, and fears. While this complexity of public risk perception is now broadly recognized, its implications are insufficiently explored. Public risk perceptions offer p poor guide for public policymaking. Popular assessments of risk are tainted by misinformation and unreliable heuristics. While subjective considerations, often called values, play a role in public perception of risk, those 'values' are often inappropriate for government decisionmaking. Reliance on public perceptions of risk means more premature deaths. Public risk perception also is systematically skewed contrary to the interests of the disadvantaged. Strict probabilistic risk measures generally provide a superior guide for government regulatory policy

  1. Life Cycle Assessment and Risk Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Stig Irving

    Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a tool for environmental assessment of product and systems – over the whole life cycle from acquisition of raw materials to the end-of-life of the product – and encompassing all environmental impacts of emissions and resource usage, e.g. global warming, acidification...... cycle. The models for assessing toxic impacts in LCA are to a large extent based on those developed for RA, e.g. EUSES, and require basic information about the inherent properties of the emissions like solubility, LogKow,ED50 etc. Additionally, it is a prerequisite to know how to characterize...

  2. Operative risk and preoperative hematocrit in bypass graft surgery: Role of gender and blood transfusion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ad, Niv; Holmes, Sari D; Massimiano, Paul S; Spiegelstein, Dan; Shuman, Deborah J; Pritchard, Graciela; Halpin, Linda

    2015-01-01

    The association between lower preoperative hematocrit (Hct) and risk for morbidity/mortality after cardiac surgery is well established. We examined whether the impact of low preoperative Hct on outcome is modified by blood transfusion and operative risk in women and men undergoing nonemergent CABG surgery. Patients having nonemergent, first-time, isolated CABG were included (N=2757). Logistic regressions assessed effect of hematocrit on major perioperative morbidity/mortality separately by males (n=2232) and females (n=525). Mean age was 63.2±10.1years, preoperative hematocrit was 38.9±4.8%, and STS risk score was 1.3±1.8%. Blood transfusion was more likely in female patients (26% vs. 12%, Ptransfusion in males and females, whereas older age (OR=1.03, P=0.017) also predicted transfusion in females. Major morbidity was also more likely in female patients (12% vs. 7%, Pblood transfusion was the only predictive factor for major morbidity in females (OR=4.56, Pblood transfusion (OR=9.22, Pblood transfusion and major morbidities after nonemergent CABG. Traditional factors that have been found to predict outcomes, such as hematocrit and STS risk, were related only to major morbidity in male patients. However, blood transfusion negatively impacted major outcome after nonemergent CABG surgery across all STS risk levels in both genders. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Modeling for operational event risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sattison, M.B.

    1997-01-01

    The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission has been using risk models to evaluate the risk significance of operational events in U.S. commercial nuclear power plants for more seventeen years. During that time, the models have evolved in response to the advances in risk assessment technology and insights gained with experience. Evaluation techniques fall into two categories, initiating event assessments and condition assessments. The models used for these analyses have become uniquely specialized for just this purpose

  4. Risk Assessment in the Maritime Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Mousavi

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment is a well-developed field which many operators are currently applying to improve their operations and reduce their risk exposure. This paper is intended to provide an overview of the risk assessment for mariners in the Maritime transportation. The risks addressed are primarily those affecting the safety of a vessel, facility or operation. The concept of risk is defined, and the methods available to assess the risks associated with an operation are described. Regulatory requirements that have prompted the development of modern risk assessment practices are described, and future regulatory trends are discussed. There are many different analysis techniques and models that have been developed to aid in conducting risk assessments. A key to any successful risk analysis is choosing the right method (or combination of methods for the situation at hand. This is achieved through critical analysis of the available data concerning marine crises. This paper provides a brief introduction to some of the analysis methods available and suggests risk analysis approaches to support different types of decision making within the maritime transportation to cope with crises. Finally, as awareness of risk assessment increases, the benefits which can be realized through its application will continue to increase. Organizations in both the public and the private sector are becoming more and more familiar with the benefits associated with risk-based approaches to managing safety and consequently reducing crisis in maritime transportation.

  5. Transmission of sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease by blood transfusion: risk factor or possible biases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puopolo, Maria; Ladogana, Anna; Vetrugno, Vito; Pocchiari, Maurizio

    2011-07-01

    The occurrence of transfusion transmissions of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD) cases has reawakened attention to the possible similar risk posed by other forms of CJD. CJD with a definite or probable diagnosis (sporadic CJD, n = 741; genetic CJD, n = 175) and no-CJD patients with definite alternative diagnosis (n = 482) with available blood transfusion history were included in the study. The risk of exposure to blood transfusion occurring more than 10 years before disease onset and for some possible confounding factors was evaluated by calculating crude odds ratios (ORs). Variables with significant ORs in univariate analyses were included in multivariate logistic regression analyses. In the univariate model, blood transfusion occurring more than 10 years before clinical onset is 4.1-fold more frequent in sporadic CJD than in other neurologic disorders. This significance is lost when the 10-year lag time was not considered. Multivariate analyses show that the risk of developing sporadic CJD after transfusion increases (OR, 5.05) after adjusting for possible confounding factors. Analysis conducted on patients with genetic CJD did not reveal any significant risk factor associated with transfusion. This is the first case-control study showing a significant risk of transfusion occurring more than 10 years before clinical onset in sporadic CJD patients. It remains questionable whether the significance of these data is biologically plausible or the consequence of biases in the design of the study, but they counterbalance previous epidemiologic negative reports that might have overestimated the assessment of blood safety in sporadic CJD. © 2010 American Association of Blood Banks.

  6. RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oksana G. Feoktistova

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate precautionary measures will allow airlines to avoid incidents leading to drastic consequences for staff, as well as to direct and indirect costs for the enterprise among which there could be singled out both direct property damage and loss of profit and expenses connected to incident investigation, penalty and compensation payment, loss of business reputation and so on. To reduce the rate of accidents and to develop safe activities skills for airlines staff a risk assessment chart is supposed to be implemented, which will be an efficient accidents prevention involving the staff in the process and making them follow safe working conditions.Process risk assessment is an integral part of assessment of the whole enterprise activity and work efficiency of a department and particular workers evaluation system. Labour protection activity should be based on risk identification and its control. Risk assessment is a keystone of labour protection activity planning.

  7. Advanced Test Reactor outage risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thatcher, T.A.; Atkinson, S.A.

    1997-01-01

    Beginning in 1997, risk assessment was performed for each Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) outage aiding the coordination of plant configuration and work activities (maintenance, construction projects, etc.) to minimize the risk of reactor fuel damage and to improve defense-in-depth. The risk assessment activities move beyond simply meeting Technical Safety Requirements to increase the awareness of risk sensitive configurations, to focus increased attention on the higher risk activities, and to seek cost-effective design or operational changes that reduce risk. A detailed probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) had been performed to assess the risk of fuel damage during shutdown operations including heavy load handling. This resulted in several design changes to improve safety; however, evaluation of individual outages had not been performed previously and many risk insights were not being utilized in outage planning. The shutdown PRA provided the necessary framework for assessing relative and absolute risk levels and assessing defense-in-depth. Guidelines were written identifying combinations of equipment outages to avoid. Screening criteria were developed for the selection of work activities to receive review. Tabulation of inherent and work-related initiating events and their relative risk level versus plant mode has aided identification of the risk level the scheduled work involves. Preoutage reviews are conducted and post-outage risk assessment is documented to summarize the positive and negative aspects of the outage with regard to risk. The risk for the outage is compared to the risk level that would result from optimal scheduling of the work to be performed and to baseline or average past performance

  8. Muscle blood volume assessment during exercise with Power Doppler Ultrasound

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heres, H.M.; Tchang, B.C.Y.; Schoots, T.; Rutten, M.C.M.; van de Vosse, F.N.; Lopata, R.G.P.

    2016-01-01

    Assessment of perfusion adaptation in muscle during exercise can provide diagnostic information on cardiac and endothelial diseases. Power Doppler Ultrasound (PDUS) is known for its feasibility in the non-invasive measurement of moving blood volume (MBV), a perfusion related parameter. In this

  9. Prediction of postpartum blood transfusion – risk factors and recurrence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wikkelsø, Anne J; Hjortøe, Sofie; Gerds, Thomas A

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: The aim was to find clinically useful risk factors for postpartum transfusion and to assess the joint predictive value in a population of women with a first and second delivery. METHODS: All Danish women with a first and second delivery from January 2001 to September 2009 who gave birt...

  10. Risk factors associated with elevated blood glucose among adults in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This cross-sectional study was conducted to assess the risk factors and lifestyles characteristics associated with type 2 diabetes mellitus among adults in Mwanza city, Tanzania. A multistage random sampling technique was used to obtain 640 male and females respondents aged 30 and above years. Data were collected ...

  11. Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Monika C.; Leidecker, Henning W.

    2010-01-01

    The Tin Whisker Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool has been designed to evaluate the risk of metal vapor arcing and to help facilitate a decision toward a researched risk disposition. Users can evaluate a system without having to open up the hardware. This process allows for investigating components at risk rather than spending time and money analyzing every component. The tool points to a risk level and provides direction for appropriate action and documentation.

  12. Energy and environment: Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Colombo, U.

    1993-01-01

    Two problems connected to the concept of 'risk' were analyzed: nuclear power production and global climate changes. In fact, nuclear power, despite of the risk management of the plants, does not produce gaseous emissions and can be used to reduce environmental risks. Even if a cost benefit analysis of nuclear power is very difficult, to perform it is author's opinion that, very probably, industrial countries will continue to use this form of energy

  13. CEA: risk management assessment 2011

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bigot, Bernard; Bonnevie, Edwige; Maillot, Bernard

    2012-01-01

    This report proposes a qualitative and quantitative overview of CEA activities in the field of risk management during 2011. These activities concerned the impact on the environment, the safety of installations, the management of professional risks (safety and health at work), the radiological protection of workers, the transports of hazardous materials, waste management, protection of sites, installations and heritage, the management of emergency situations, the management of law risks, controls and audits

  14. CEA - 2014 risk management assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bonnevie, Edwige; Verwaerde, Daniel; Maillot, Bernard

    2015-06-01

    After introducing presentations of CEA managers in charge of risk management and controls, this document presents and comments the actions undertaken by the CEA and the obtained results in terms of risk management in different fields: protection and control of the environment, installation safety, health, safety and radiation protection, transport of hazardous materials, waste management, protection of sites, installations and heritage, management of emergency situations, management of legal risks, internal audits and controls. Other topics are addressed like the presentation of the risk management department, and the role of the CEA in the relationship between research and industry

  15. Distribution of ABO blood groups in the patients with intracranial aneurysm and association of different risk factors with particular blood type.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bir, Shyamal Chandra; Bollam, Papireddy; Nanda, Anil

    2015-01-01

    The association between ABO blood groups and intracranial aneurysms is not well-known. Many co-morbid factors are associated with intracranial aneurysms. Our objective was to assess the prevalence of different blood group in patients with intracranial aneurysm and to look for associations between risk factors and these groups. This retrospective study includes 1,491 cases who underwent surgical operations for intracranial aneurysms from 1993-2014. We have evaluated the information related to clinical history, ABO blood groups and associated risk factors in the patients both ruptured and unruptured intracranial aneurysms by chart review of the cases. In our study, out of 1,491 cases, the most common ABO blood groups were group O (668 cases, 44.80%) and Group A (603 cases, 40.44%), and Rh(+) in 1,319 (88.4%) and Rh(-) in 147 (11.6%). Blood Group A (43% vs. 36%) and Group B (16.2% vs. 8.6%) were significantly higher in Caucasian and African Americans respectively. However, in general population, there was no significant difference in blood groups between Caucasians and African Americans. Rh(-) factor was significantly higher in Caucasians compared to African Americans. Incidence of smoking was significantly higher in aneurysm patients with O group compared to others. In addition, incidence of hypercholesterolemia was significantly higher in aneurysm patients with A group compared to others. The racial disparity in the distribution of blood groups, and risk factor association with blood groups in the development of intracranial aneurysm needs to be considered. The findings from our study may be useful in identifying patients at increased risk. Further study may be required to establish the risks from multiple centers studies around the world.

  16. Positional change in blood pressure and 8-year risk of hypertension: the CARDIA Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Randal J; Liu, Kiang; Jacobs, David R; Bild, Diane E; Kiefe, Catarina I; Hulley, Stephen B

    2003-08-01

    To assess the relationship between positional blood pressure change and 8-year incidence of hypertension in a biracial cohort of young adults. Participants from the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study with complete data from year 2 (1987-1988), year 5 (1990-1991), year 7 (1992-1993), and year 10 (1995-1996) examinations were included (N = 2781). Participants were classified into 3 groups based on their year 2 systolic blood pressure response to standing: drop, a decrease in systolic blood pressure of more than 5 mm Hg; same, a change of between -5 and +5 mm Hg; and rise, more than 5-mm Hg increase. The number of participants in each group was as follows: drop, 741; same, 1590; and rise, 450. The 8-year incidence of hypertension was 8.4% in the drop group, 6.8% in the same group, and 12.4% in the rise group (P women, 2.47 (95% CI, 1.19-5.11), in white men, 2.17 (95% CI, 1.00-4.73), and in white women, 4.74 (95% CI, 1.11-20.30). A greater than 5-mm Hg increase in blood pressure on standing identified a group of young adults at increased risk of developing hypertension within 8 years. These findings support a physiologic link between sympathetic nervous system reactivity and risk of hypertension in young adults.

  17. Environmental Comparative Risk Assessment: A Case Study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ali, M.M.

    2007-01-01

    Health and environmental impacts associated with energy production and industrial activities as well as food production and agricultural activities have had great concern in the last decades. Early activities emerged in late 80s of the last century through an Inter- Agency project (lAEA, UNDY, WHO, ... ) on the comparative risk assessment from energy systems and industrial complexes. A work-shop on Risk Assessment and Management in large industrial areas was held in Alexandria Egypt on 20-33 Det 1993, sponsored by IAEA. Several conferences, experts work groups and workshops were held there of Recent trends in determining risks are: 1. Use of probabilistic risk assessment approach to identify hazardous activities and accident scenario. 2. development of data base on failure probabilities and appropriate physical models. 3. Development of related directives and regulations and criteria Comparative risk assessment case study as a tool for comparing risk is emphasized Criteria of exposure to human and ecological risks are addressed

  18. Revised Human Health Risk Assessment on Chlorpyrifos

    Science.gov (United States)

    We have revised our human health risk assessment and drinking water exposure assessment for chlorpyrifos that supported our October 2015 proposal to revoke all food residue tolerances for chlorpyrifos. Learn about the revised analysis.

  19. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Tutorial - Primer

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document provides a Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) primer that organizes QMRA tutorials. The tutorials describe functionality of a QMRA infrastructure, guide the user through software use and assessment options, provide step-by-step instructions for implementi...

  20. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

    2009-01-01

    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  1. Atherogenic Risk Assessment among Persons Living in Rural Uganda

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clara Wekesa

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Hypertension and dyslipidemia are independent risk factors for coronary heart disease and commonly coexist. Cardiovascular risk can be reliably predicted using lipid ratios such as the atherogenic index, a useful prognostic parameter for guiding timely interventions. Objective. We assessed the cardiovascular risk profile based on the atherogenic index of residents within a rural Ugandan cohort. Methods. In 2011, a population based survey was conducted among 7507 participants. Sociodemographic characteristics, physical measurements (blood pressure, weight, height, and waist and hip circumference, and blood sampling for nonfasting lipid profile were collected for each participant. Atherogenic risk profile, defined as logarithm base ten of (triglyceride divided by high density lipoprotein cholesterol, was categorised as low risk (0.24. Results. Fifty-five percent of participants were female and the mean age was 49.9 years (SD±20.2. Forty-two percent of participants had high and intermediate atherogenic risk. Persons with hypertension, untreated HIV infection, abnormal glycaemia, and obesity and living in less urbanised villages were more at risk. Conclusion. A significant proportion of persons in this rural population are at risk of atherosclerosis. Key identified populations at risk should be considered for future intervention against cardiovascular related morbidity and mortality. The study however used parameters from unfasted samples that may have a bearing on observed results.

  2. Challenges of using HIV as a primary risk indicator: Need for integrated blood donor risk management model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mapako, T.; Parirewa, J.J.; Emmanuel, J.C.; Mvere, D.A.; Massundah, E.; Mavunganidze, G.; Marowa, L.M.; Postma, M.J.; Van Hulst, M.

    2015-01-01

    Background: The use of risk modelling in blood safety is increasing getting momentum. NBSZ initiated blood donor risk profiling based on donation frequency (r-coding) since 1994 and in 2006 a generic risk classification model was developed (include age and donation venue) which was mainly based on

  3. The risk of blood transfusion-associated Chikungunya fever during the 2009 epidemic in Songkhla Province, Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Appassakij, Hatsadee; Promwong, Charuporn; Rujirojindakul, Pairaya; Wutthanarungsan, Rochana; Silpapojakul, Khachornsakdi

    2014-08-01

    Asymptomatic Chikungunya fever (CHIKF)-viremic blood donors could be a potential threat of spreading the disease unwittingly through contaminated blood transfusions. The relatively low prevalence of Chikungunya virus antibodies in the population and the records of more than 9000 suspected CHIKF cases raised concern about the potential transfusion-associated CHIKF during the 2009 epidemic. This study assessed the potential transfusion risk for CHIKF and the implementation of blood safety measures to mitigate this risk. A probabilistic model using key variables obtained from local information was used to estimate the weekly risk of transfusion-associated CHIKF during the 2009 epidemic. In addition, other blood safety measure-based strategies involving screening for donors at risk, donor tracing, and a 7-day quarantine of blood components at risk were implemented at the time of the epidemic. The risk of viremic donations per 100,000 ranged from 38.2 (95% confidence interval [CI], 36.5-39.8) to 52.3 (95% CI, 50.4-54.2). The potential risk of transfusion-associated CHIKF per 100,000 was estimated to be 1 in 2429 (0.04%; 95% CI, 1 in 6681 [0.02%]-1 in 1572 [0.06%]) to 1 in 1781 (0.06%; 95% CI, 1 in 3817 [0.03%]-1 in 1214 (0.08%]) donations. Among 26,722 donations, 11 (95% CI, 4-17) to 15 (95% CI, 7-22) donations were predicted to associate with transfusion risk. The implementation of blood safety measure-based strategies for this epidemic period suggested to deter 11 blood donations of transfusion risk. The interventions for blood safety measures applied in this study had mitigated the potential transfusion-associated CHIKF during the 2009 epidemic. © 2014 AABB.

  4. Major depression as a risk factor for high blood pressure: epidemiologic evidence from a national longitudinal study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patten, Scott B; Williams, Jeanne V A; Lavorato, Dina H; Campbell, Norman R C; Eliasziw, Michael; Campbell, Tavis S

    2009-04-01

    To determine whether major depression (MD) leads to an increased risk of new-onset high blood pressure diagnoses. The data source was the Canadian National Population Health Survey (NPHS). The NPHS included a short-form version of the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI-SF) to assess MD and collected self-report data about professionally diagnosed high blood pressure and the use of antihypertensive medications. The analysis included 12,270 respondents who did not report high blood pressure or the use of antihypertensive medications at a baseline interview conducted in 1994. Proportional hazards models were used to compare the incidence of high blood pressure in respondents with and without MD during 10 years of subsequent follow-up. After adjustment for age, the risk of developing high blood pressure was elevated in those with MD. The hazard ratio was 1.6 (95% Confidence Interval = 1.2-2.1), p = .001, indicating a 60% increase in risk. Adjustment for additional covariates did not alter the association. MD may be a risk factor for new-onset high blood pressure. Epidemiologic data cannot definitely confirm a causal role, and the association may be due to shared etiologic factors. However, the increased risk may warrant closer monitoring of blood pressure in people with depressive disorders.

  5. Risk Stratification by Ambulatory Blood Pressure Monitoring Across JNC Classes of Conventional Blood Pressure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brguljan-Hitij, Jana; Thijs, Lutgarde; Li, Yan

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Guidelines propose classification of conventional blood pressure (CBP) into normotension (<120/<80 mm Hg), prehypertension (120-139/80-89 mm Hg), and hypertension (≥140/≥90 mm Hg). METHODS: To assess the potential differential contribution of ambulatory blood pressure (ABP) in predict......BACKGROUND: Guidelines propose classification of conventional blood pressure (CBP) into normotension (ABP......%) and of cardiovascular (-34%), cardiac (-33%), or cerebrovascular (-47%) events. Multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for stroke associated with 24-hour and daytime diastolic ABP (+5 mm Hg) were higher (P ≤ 0.045) in normotension than in prehypertension and hypertension (1.98 vs.1.19 vs.1.28 and 1.73 vs.1.09 vs. 1.......24, respectively) with similar trends (0.03 ≤ P ≤ 0.11) for systolic ABP (+10 mm Hg). However, HRs for fatal endpoints and cardiac events associated with ABP did not differ significantly (P ≥ 0.13) across CBP categories. Of normotensive and prehypertensive participants, 7.5% and 29.3% had masked hypertension...

  6. Information security risk assessment, aggregation, and mitigation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lenstra, A.K.; Voss, T.; Wang, H.; Pieprzyk, J.; Varadharajan, V.

    2004-01-01

    As part of their compliance process with the Basel 2 operational risk management requirements, banks must define how they deal with information security risk management. In this paper we describe work in progress on a new quantitative model to assess and aggregate information security risks that is

  7. Genetic toxicology and cancer risk assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Choy, Wai Nang

    2001-01-01

    ... their risks to humans are obvious goals for the protection of public health. When exposure is unavoidable, an accurate estimation of human risk as a result of exposure is essential for making regulatory decisions. Quantitative cancer risk assessment is an intricate process that utilizes knowledge from many different scien...

  8. Bahia State, Brazil : Ariculture Sector Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Arias, Diego; Caballero, Jorge

    2015-01-01

    The present study is part of an effort by the World Bank and the State of Bahia to assess agriculture sector risks as a contribution to the strategic economic development and poverty reduction agenda of the state government. It is composed of two phases: an agricultural sector risk identification and prioritization (volume one) and a risk management strategy and action plan (volume two). T...

  9. Low-frequency fields - health risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernhardt, J.

    1993-01-01

    The author briefly reviews the biological actions and effects of low-frequency fields, epidemiological studies and discusses health risks in detail. He describes the assessment principles of the International Commission on Non-ionizing Radiation Protection (ICNIRP), medical principles for risk assessment, determination of limits and thesholds, and aspects of prevention. This is supplemented to by several fables and literature list. (Uhe) [de

  10. Evaluation of a constipation risk assessment scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zernike, W; Henderson, A

    1999-06-01

    This project was undertaken in order to evaluate the utility of a constipation risk assessment scale and the accompanying bowel management protocol. The risk assessment scale was primarily introduced to teach and guide staff in managing constipation when caring for patients. The intention of the project was to reduce the incidence of constipation in patients during their admission to hospital.

  11. Recovery in environmental risk assessment at EFSA

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brock, T.C.M.

    2016-01-01

    EFSA performs environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for single potential stressors such as plant protection products, genetically modified organisms and feed additives and for invasive alien species that are harmful for plant health. In this risk assessment domain, the EFSA Scientific Committee

  12. Explaining probalistic risk assessment in common language

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wong, J.W.

    1994-01-01

    Probabilistic human health risk assessment is explained in ordinary language using a hypothetical example and the ingestion equation from EPA's Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund. A section on understanding probabilities and probability distributions used in a Monte Carlo simulation is included as well as an appendix showing the computer run and the technical assumptions behind it

  13. Aquatic Macrophyte Risk Assessment for Pesticides

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maltby, L.; Arnold, D.; Arts, G.H.P.; Davies, J.; Heimbach, F.; Pickl, C.; Poulsen, V.

    2009-01-01

    Given the essential role that primary producers play in aquatic ecosystems, it is imperative that the potential risk of pesticides to the structure and functioning of aquatic plants is adequately assessed. This book discusses the assessment of the risk of pesticides with herbicidal activity to

  14. Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-03-01

    This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and environmental evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act remedial investigations (RIs) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act facility investigations (FIs) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies Site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and environmental risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site

  15. Risk Assessment for an Unmanned Merchant Ship

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ø.J. Rødseth

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The MUNIN project is doing a feasibility study on an unmanned bulk carrier on an intercontinental voyage. To develop the technical and operational concepts, MUNIN has used a risk-based design method, based on the Formal Safety Analysis method which is also recommended by the International Mari-time Organization. Scenario analysis has been used to identify risks and to simplify operational scope. Systematic hazard identification has been used to find critical safety and security risks and how to address these. Technology and operational concept testing is using a hypothesis-based test method, where the hypotheses have been created as a result of the risk assessment. Finally, the cost-benefit assessment will also use results from the risk assessment. This paper describes the risk assessment method, some of the most important results and also describes how the results have been or will be used in the different parts of the project.

  16. Hanford Site Risk Assessment Methodology. Revision 3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-05-01

    This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and ecological evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act of 1980 (CERCLA) remedial investigations (RI) and the Resource conservation and Recovery Act of 1976 (RCRA) facility investigations (FI) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (Ecology et al. 1994), referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and ecological risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site

  17. Cumulative Risk Assessment (CRA): transforming the way we assess health risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Pamela R D; Dotson, G Scott; Maier, Andrew

    2012-10-16

    Human health risk assessments continue to evolve and now focus on the need for cumulative risk assessment (CRA). CRA involves assessing the combined risk from coexposure to multiple chemical and nonchemical stressors for varying health effects. CRAs are broader in scope than traditional chemical risk assessments because they allow for a more comprehensive evaluation of the interaction between different stressors and their combined impact on human health. Future directions of CRA include greater emphasis on local-level community-based assessments; integrating environmental, occupational, community, and individual risk factors; and identifying and implementing common frameworks and risk metrics for incorporating multiple stressors.

  18. Cardiovascular disease and ABO blood-groups in Africans. Are blood-group A individuals at higher risk of ischemic disease?: A pilot study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ba, Djibril Marie; Sow, Mamadou Saidou; Diack, Aminata; Dia, Khadidiatou; Mboup, Mouhamed Cherif; Fall, Pape Diadie; Fall, Moussa Daouda

    2017-12-01

    Since the discovery of the ABO blood group system by Karl Landsteiner in 1901, several reports have suggested an important involvement of the ABO blood group system in the susceptibility to thrombosis. Assessing that non-O blood groups in particular A blood group confer a higher risk of venous and arterial thrombosis than group O.Epidemiologic data are typically not available for all racial and ethnics groups.The purpose of this pilot study was to identify a link between ABO blood group and ischemic disease (ID) in Africans, and to analyze whether A blood group individuals were at higher risk of ischemic disease or not. A total of 299 medical records of patients over a three-year period admitted to the cardiology and internal medicine department of military hospital of Ouakam in Senegal were reviewed. We studied data on age, gender, past history of hypertension, diabetes, smoking, sedentarism, obesity, hyperlipidemia, use of estrogen-progestin contraceptives and blood group distribution.In each blood group type, we evaluated the prevalence of ischemic and non-ischemic cardiovascular disease. The medical records were then stratified into two categories to evaluate incidence of ischemic disease: Group 1: Patients carrying blood-group A and Group 2: Patients carrying blood group non-A (O, AB and B). Of the 299 patients whose medical records were reviewed, 92 (30.8%) were carrying blood group A, 175 (58.5%) had blood group O, 13 (4.3%) had blood group B, and 19 (6.4%) had blood group AB.The diagnosis of ischemic disease (ID) was higher in patients with blood group A (61.2%) than in other blood groups, and the diagnosis of non-ischemic disease (NID) was higher in patients with blood group O (73.6%) compared to other groups. In patients with blood group B or AB compared to non-B or non-AB, respectively there was no statistically significant difference in ID incidence.Main risk factor for ID was smoking (56.5%), hypertension (18.4%) and diabetes (14.3%).In our study

  19. Ethical dimensions in assessing technical risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birnbacher, D.

    1991-01-01

    Contrary to the present tendency of partially impact-independent technology assessment, the author does not see a difference between a risk-benefit analysis and an ethical technology assessment. As long as the risk-benefit analysis is truly comprehensive, both fall together. This does not mean that convictions of those who have their doubts about some new technologies, independently of impact assessments, may be disregarded in purely consequential risk evaluations. On the contrary, qualms of representatives of these principles, just as any other stable non-acceptance, have to be included as aggravating negative elements in technology assessments. (orig./HSCH) [de

  20. Quantified risk assessment - a nuclear industry viewpoint

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomson, J.R.

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents a brief summary of the methodology used for the assessment of risk arising from fuel handling and dismantling operations in advanced gas-cooled reactor power stations. The difficulties with and problems arising from such risk assessments are discussed. In particular, difficulties arise from (i) the onerous risk criteria that nuclear plants are expected to satisfy, (ii) the necessary complexity of the plant, (iii) the conflicting requirements for the fault consequence assessments to be bounding but not grossly pessimistic, and (iv) areas of fault frequency assessment which contain possibly subjective considerations such as software and common mode failure. (author)

  1. The evolution of violence risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monahan, John; Skeem, Jennifer L

    2014-10-01

    Many instruments have been published in recent years to improve the ability of mental health clinicians to estimate the likelihood that an individual will behave violently toward others. Increasingly, these instruments are being applied in response to laws that require specialized risk assessments. In this review, we present a framework that goes beyond the "clinical" and "actuarial" dichotomy to describe a continuum of structured approaches to risk assessment. Despite differences among them, there is little evidence that one instrument predicts violence better than another. We believe that these group-based instruments are useful for assessing an individual's risk, and that the instrument should be chosen based on the purpose of the assessment.

  2. High blood pressure in school children: prevalence and risk factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rivers Patrick A

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The purpose of this study was to determine the prevalence of high blood pressure (HBP and associated risk factors in school children 8 to 13 years of age. Methods Elementary school children (n = 1,066 were examined. Associations between HBP, body mass index (BMI, gender, ethnicity, and acanthosis nigricans (AN were investigated using a school based cross-sectional study. Blood pressure was measured and the 95th percentile was used to determine HBP. Comparisons between children with and without HBP were utilized. The crude and multiple logistic regression adjusted odds ratios were used as measures of association. Results Females, Hispanics, overweight children, and children with AN had an increased likelihood of HBP. Overweight children (BMI ≥ 85th percentile and those with AN were at least twice as likely to present with HBP after controlling for confounding factors. Conclusion Twenty one percent of school children had HBP, especially the prevalence was higher among the overweight and Hispanic group. The association identified here can be used as independent markers for increased likelihood of HBP in children.

  3. On risk assessment of energy production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kunii, Katsuhiko

    2005-07-01

    Today we cannot ignore the risk of health and/or environment by energy production such as power generation since the risk has been made large enough. In this report an information survey has been done in order to know the outline and points of risk assessment. Based on the information of reports and literature about risk assessment, have been surveyed mainly the external cost assessment of power generation (in which quantification of health and/or environment risk has been done), in addition, risks of disasters, accidents, investments, finance etc. and impacts of those risks on social activities. The remarks obtained by the survey are as follows: 1) Some of external cost assessment of power generation show different results even if the assessment conditions of technology, site, etc. are mostly the same. It is necessary to remark on the information such as basic data, model, background, application limit of assessment considering the reliability. 2) Especially it is considered that the reliability of risk assessment is not enough at present because of the lack of basic data. (author)

  4. RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

    OpenAIRE

    Szabo Alina

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in ...

  5. Frequency and risk factors for donor reactions in an anonymous blood donor survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldman, Mindy; Osmond, Lori; Yi, Qi-Long; Cameron-Choi, Keltie; O'Brien, Sheila F

    2013-09-01

    Adverse donor reactions can result in injury and decrease the likelihood of donor return. Reaction reports captured in the blood center's database provide an incomplete picture of reaction rates and risk factors. We performed an anonymous survey, mailed to 40,000 donors in 2008, including questions about symptoms, height, weight, sex, and donation status. Reaction rates were compared to those recorded in our database. Possible risk factors were assessed for various reactions. The response rate was 45.5%. A total of 32% of first-time and 14% of repeat donors reported having any adverse symptom, most frequently bruising (84.9 per 1000 donors) or feeling faint or weak (66.2 per 1000). Faint reactions were two to eight times higher than reported in our database, although direct comparison was difficult. Younger age, female sex, and first-time donation status were risk factors for systemic and arm symptoms. In females, low estimated blood volume (EBV) was a risk factor for systemic symptoms. Only 51% of donors who consulted an outside physician also called Canadian Blood Services. A total of 10% of first-time donors with reactions found adverse effects information inadequate. This study allowed us to collect more information about adverse reactions, including minor symptoms and delayed reactions. Based on our findings of the risk factors and frequency of adverse reactions, we are implementing more stringent EBV criteria for younger donors and providing more detailed information to donors about possible adverse effects and their management. © 2012 American Association of Blood Banks.

  6. Approaches and methods of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowe, W.D.

    1983-01-01

    The classification system of risk assessment includes the categories: 1) risk comparisons, 2) cost-effectiveness of risk reduction, 3) balancing of costs, risks and benefits against one another, 4. Metasystems. An overview of methods and systems reveals that no single method can be applied to all cases and situations. The visibility of the process and the absolute consideration of all aspects of judging are, however, of first and fore most importance. (DG) [de

  7. Risk assessment: A regional approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Palecek, M [Occupational Safety Research Institute, Prague (Czech Republic)

    1992-07-01

    An assessment of the region of North Bohemia which suffered from forty years socialist economy and heavy emissions from German and Polish factories and power stations is presented. The case strongly underlines the need for regional and international cooperation both in the assessment of hazards and finding solution to public health and environmental problems.

  8. Risk assessment: A regional approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Palecek, M.

    1992-01-01

    An assessment of the region of North Bohemia which suffered from forty years socialist economy and heavy emissions from German and Polish factories and power stations is presented. The case strongly underlines the need for regional and international cooperation both in the assessment of hazards and finding solution to public health and environmental problems

  9. Blood pressure load does not add to ambulatory blood pressure level for cardiovascular risk stratification

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, Yan; Thijs, Lutgarde; Boggia, José

    2014-01-01

    Experts proposed blood pressure (BP) load derived from 24-hour ambulatory BP recordings as a more accurate predictor of outcome than level, in particular in normotensive people. We analyzed 8711 subjects (mean age, 54.8 years; 47.0% women) randomly recruited from 10 populations. We expressed BP...... load as percentage (%) of systolic/diastolic readings ≥135/≥85 mm Hg and ≥120/≥70 mm Hg during day and night, respectively, or as the area under the BP curve (mm Hg×h) using the same ceiling values. During a period of 10.7 years (median), 1284 participants died and 1109 experienced a fatal or nonfatal...... cardiovascular end point. In multivariable-adjusted models, the risk of cardiovascular complications gradually increased across deciles of BP level and load (Pbased on 24-hour systolic or diastolic BP level (generalized R(2) statistic ≤0.294%; net...

  10. HTLV-I/II and blood donors: determinants associated with seropositivity in a low risk population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernadette Catalan Soares

    2003-08-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: Blood donors in Brazil have been routinely screened for HTLV-I/II since 1993. A study was performed to estimate the prevalence of HTLV-I/II infection in a low risk population and to better understand determinants associated with seropositivity. METHODS: HTLV-I/II seropositive (n=135, indeterminate (n=167 and seronegative blood donors (n=116 were enrolled in an open prevalence prospective cohort study. A cross-sectional epidemiological study of positive, indeterminate and seronegative HTLV-I/II subjects was conducted to assess behavioral and environmental risk factors for seropositivity. HTLV-I/II serological status was confirmed using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (EIA and Western blot (WB. RESULTS: The three groups were not homogeneous. HTLV-I/II seropositivity was associated to past blood transfusion and years of schooling, a marker of socioeconomic status, and use of non-intravenous illegal drugs. CONCLUSIONS: The study results reinforce the importance of continuous monitoring and improvement of blood donor selection process.

  11. Hazard classification or risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hass, Ulla

    2013-01-01

    The EU classification of substances for e.g. reproductive toxicants is hazard based and does not to address the risk suchsubstances may pose through normal, or extreme, use. Such hazard classification complies with the consumer's right to know. It is also an incentive to careful use and storage...

  12. How Should Blood Glucose Meter System Analytical Performance Be Assessed?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simmons, David A

    2015-08-31

    Blood glucose meter system analytical performance is assessed by comparing pairs of meter system and reference instrument blood glucose measurements measured over time and across a broad array of glucose values. Consequently, no single, complete, and ideal parameter can fully describe the difference between meter system and reference results. Instead, a number of assessment tools, both graphical (eg, regression plots, modified Bland-Altman plots, and error grid analysis) and tabular (eg, International Organization for Standardization guidelines, mean absolute difference, and mean absolute relative difference) have been developed to evaluate meter system performance. The strengths and weaknesses of these methods of presenting meter system performance data, including a new method known as Radar Plots, are described here. © 2015 Diabetes Technology Society.

  13. Longitudinal fasting blood glucose patterns and arterial stiffness risk in a population without diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Yuntao; Yu, Junxing; Jin, Cheng; Li, Yun; Su, Jinmei; Wei, Guoqing; Zheng, Xiaoming; Gao, Jingsheng; Gao, Wenyuan; Wu, Shouling

    2017-01-01

    To identify long-term fasting blood glucose trajectories and to assess the association between the trajectories and the risk of arterial stiffness in individuals without diabetes. We enrolled 16,454 non-diabetic participants from Kailuan cohort. Fasting blood glucose concentrations were measured in 2006, 2008, and 2010 survey. Brachial-ankle pulse wave velocities were measured during 2011 to 2016. Multivariate regression model was used to estimate the difference of brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity levels and logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CIs) of arterial stiffness risk, according to the fasting blood glucose trajectories. We identified five distinct fasting blood glucose trajectories and each of the trajectories was labeled according to its range and change over 2006-2010 survey: elevated-stable pattern (5.0% of participants), elevated-decreasing pattern (6.6%), moderate-increasing pattern (10.9%), moderate-stable pattern (59.3%), and low-stable pattern (18.2%). After adjustment for potential confounders, individuals with elevated-stable pattern had a 42.6 cm/s (95%CI: 24.7 to 60.6 cm/s) higher brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity level and a 37% (OR 1.37, 95%CI: 1.14 to 1.66) higher arterial stiffness risk, and individuals with moderate-increasing pattern had a 19.6 cm/s (95%CI: 6.9 to 32.3 cm/s) higher brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity level and a 17% (OR 1.17, 95%CI: 1.03 to 1.33) higher arterial stiffness risk, related to individuals with moderate-stable pattern. We did not find significant associations of the elevated-decreasing or low-stable patterns with arterial stiffness. Consistently, the cumulative average, variability, and increased rate of fasting blood glucose during 2006-2010 survey were significantly associated with the arterial stiffness risk. Discrete fasting blood glucose trajectories were associated with the arterial stiffness risk in non-diabetic individuals.

  14. Defining Probability in Sex Offender Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elwood, Richard W

    2016-12-01

    There is ongoing debate and confusion over using actuarial scales to predict individuals' risk of sexual recidivism. Much of the debate comes from not distinguishing Frequentist from Bayesian definitions of probability. Much of the confusion comes from applying Frequentist probability to individuals' risk. By definition, only Bayesian probability can be applied to the single case. The Bayesian concept of probability resolves most of the confusion and much of the debate in sex offender risk assessment. Although Bayesian probability is well accepted in risk assessment generally, it has not been widely used to assess the risk of sex offenders. I review the two concepts of probability and show how the Bayesian view alone provides a coherent scheme to conceptualize individuals' risk of sexual recidivism.

  15. Risk assessment of carcinogens in food

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barlow, Susan; Schlatter, Josef

    2010-01-01

    Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a 'margin of exposure' approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

  16. Risk assessment of carcinogens in food.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barlow, Susan; Schlatter, Josef

    2010-03-01

    Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a "margin of exposure" approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

  17. Systems Toxicology: The Future of Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauer, John Michael; Hartung, Thomas; Leist, Marcel; Knudsen, Thomas B; Hoeng, Julia; Hayes, A Wallace

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment, in the context of public health, is the process of quantifying the probability of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from human activities. With increasing public health concern regarding the potential risks associated with chemical exposure, there is a need for more predictive and accurate approaches to risk assessment. Developing such an approach requires a mechanistic understanding of the process by which xenobiotic substances perturb biological systems and lead to toxicity. Supplementing the shortfalls of traditional risk assessment with mechanistic biological data has been widely discussed but not routinely implemented in the evaluation of chemical exposure. These mechanistic approaches to risk assessment have been generally referred to as systems toxicology. This Symposium Overview article summarizes 4 talks presented at the 35th Annual Meeting of the American College of Toxicology. © The Author(s) 2015.

  18. Risk assessment in support of plant health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jeger, Michael; Schans, Jan; Lövei, Gabor L.

    2012-01-01

    environmental risk assessment and the evaluation of risk reducing options. Quantitative approaches have become increasingly important during this time. The Panel has developed such methods in climatic mapping (in association with the Joint Research Councils), application of spatial spread models, re......With the establishment of the Plant Health Panel in 2006, EFSA became the body responsible for risk assessment in the plant health area for the European Union (EU). Since then more than 70 outputs have been produced dealing with the full range of organisms harmful to plant health across all crop...... types and plants in the environment. There has been an increasing trend towards producing scientific opinions which are full pest risk assessments for the whole EU territory. In its work, and as a contribution to the wider development of risk assessment methodology, the Panel has developed a series...

  19. Approaches to risk assessment in food allergy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Charlotte Bernhard; Hattersley, S.; Buck, J.

    2009-01-01

    modelling is considered to be the most promising approach for use in population risk assessment (which is a particular focus for risk managers). For all approaches, further improvement of input data is desirable, particularly data on consumption patterns/food choices in food allergic consumers, data...... models. The workshop concluded that all the three approaches to safety and risk assessment of allergenic foods should continue to be considered. A particular strength of the MoE and probabilistic approaches is that they do not rely on low-dose extrapolations with its inherent issues. Probabilistic......A workshop was organised to investigate whether risk assessment strategies and methodologies used in classical/conventional toxicology may be used for risk assessment of allergenic foods. to discuss the advantages and limitations of different approaches and to determine the research needed to move...

  20. PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessments) Participation versus Validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeMott, Diana; Banke, Richard

    2013-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs) are performed for projects or programs where the consequences of failure are highly undesirable. PRAs primarily address the level of risk those projects or programs posed during operations. PRAs are often developed after the design has been completed. Design and operational details used to develop models include approved and accepted design information regarding equipment, components, systems and failure data. This methodology basically validates the risk parameters of the project or system design. For high risk or high dollar projects, using PRA methodologies during the design process provides new opportunities to influence the design early in the project life cycle to identify, eliminate or mitigate potential risks. Identifying risk drivers before the design has been set allows the design engineers to understand the inherent risk of their current design and consider potential risk mitigation changes. This can become an iterative process where the PRA model can be used to determine if the mitigation technique is effective in reducing risk. This can result in more efficient and cost effective design changes. PRA methodology can be used to assess the risk of design alternatives and can demonstrate how major design changes or program modifications impact the overall program or project risk. PRA has been used for the last two decades to validate risk predictions and acceptability. Providing risk information which can positively influence final system and equipment design the PRA tool can also participate in design development, providing a safe and cost effective product.

  1. Depression and blood pressure in high-risk children and adolescents: an investigation using two longitudinal cohorts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammerton, Gemma; Harold, Gordon; Thapar, Anita; Thapar, Ajay

    2013-01-01

    Objective To examine the relationship between blood pressure and depressive disorder in children and adolescents at high risk for depression. Design Multisample longitudinal design including a prospective longitudinal three-wave high-risk study of offspring of parents with recurrent depression and an on-going birth cohort for replication. Setting Community-based studies. Participants High-risk sample includes 281 families where children were aged 9–17 years at baseline and 10–19 years at the final data point. Replication cohort includes 4830 families where children were aged 11–14 years at baseline and 14–17 years at follow-up and a high-risk subsample of 612 offspring with mothers that had reported recurrent depression. Main outcome measures The new-onset of Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorder, fourth edition defined depressive disorder in the offspring using established research diagnostic assessments—the Child and Adolescent Psychiatric Assessment in the high-risk sample and the Development and Wellbeing Assessment in the replication sample. Results Blood pressure was standardised for age and gender to create SD scores and child's weight was statistically controlled in all analyses. In the high-risk sample, lower systolic blood pressure at wave 1 significantly predicted new-onset depressive disorder in children (OR=0.65, 95% CI 0.44 to 0.96; p=0.029) but diastolic blood pressure did not. Depressive disorder at wave 1 did not predict systolic blood pressure at wave 3. A significant association between lower systolic blood pressure and future depression was also found in the replication cohort in the second subset of high-risk children whose mothers had experienced recurrent depression in the past. Conclusions Lower systolic blood pressure predicts new-onset depressive disorder in the offspring of parents with depression. Further studies are needed to investigate how this association arises. PMID:24071459

  2. NASA Human System Risk Assessment Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francisco, D.; Romero, E.

    2016-01-01

    NASA utilizes an evidence based system to perform risk assessments for the human system for spaceflight missions. The center of this process is the multi-disciplinary Human System Risk Board (HSRB). The HSRB is chartered from the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) at NASA Headquarters. The HSRB reviews all human system risks via an established comprehensive risk and configuration management plan based on a project management approach. The HSRB facilitates the integration of human research (terrestrial and spaceflight), medical operations, occupational surveillance, systems engineering and many other disciplines in a comprehensive review of human system risks. The HSRB considers all factors that influence human risk. These factors include pre-mission considerations such as screening criteria, training, age, sex, and physiological condition. In mission factors such as available countermeasures, mission duration and location and post mission factors such as time to return to baseline (reconditioning), post mission health screening, and available treatments. All of the factors influence the total risk assessment for each human risk. The HSRB performed a comprehensive review of all potential inflight medical conditions and events and over the course of several reviews consolidated the number of human system risks to 30, where the greatest emphasis is placed for investing program dollars for risk mitigation. The HSRB considers all available evidence from human research and, medical operations and occupational surveillance in assessing the risks for appropriate mitigation and future work. All applicable DRMs (low earth orbit for 6 and 12 months, deep space for 30 days and 1 year, a lunar mission for 1 year, and a planetary mission for 3 years) are considered as human system risks are modified by the hazards associated with space flight such as microgravity, exposure to radiation, distance from the earth, isolation and a closed environment. Each risk has a summary

  3. Enhancing the ecological risk assessment process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dale, Virginia H; Biddinger, Gregory R; Newman, Michael C; Oris, James T; Suter, Glenn W; Thompson, Timothy; Armitage, Thomas M; Meyer, Judith L; Allen-King, Richelle M; Burton, G Allen; Chapman, Peter M; Conquest, Loveday L; Fernandez, Ivan J; Landis, Wayne G; Master, Lawrence L; Mitsch, William J; Mueller, Thomas C; Rabeni, Charles F; Rodewald, Amanda D; Sanders, James G; van Heerden, Ivor L

    2008-07-01

    The Ecological Processes and Effects Committee of the US Environmental Protection Agency Science Advisory Board conducted a self-initiated study and convened a public workshop to characterize the state of the ecological risk assessment (ERA), with a view toward advancing the science and application of the process. That survey and analysis of ERA in decision making shows that such assessments have been most effective when clear management goals were included in the problem formulation; translated into information needs; and developed in collaboration with decision makers, assessors, scientists, and stakeholders. This process is best facilitated when risk managers, risk assessors, and stakeholders are engaged in an ongoing dialogue about problem formulation. Identification and acknowledgment of uncertainties that have the potential to profoundly affect the results and outcome of risk assessments also improves assessment effectiveness. Thus we suggest 1) through peer review of ERAs be conducted at the problem formulation stage and 2) the predictive power of risk-based decision making be expanded to reduce uncertainties through analytical and methodological approaches like life cycle analysis. Risk assessment and monitoring programs need better integration to reduce uncertainty and to evaluate risk management decision outcomes. Postdecision audit programs should be initiated to evaluate the environmental outcomes of risk-based decisions. In addition, a process should be developed to demonstrate how monitoring data can be used to reduce uncertainties. Ecological risk assessments should include the effects of chemical and nonchemical stressors at multiple levels of biological organization and spatial scale, and the extent and resolution of the pertinent scales and levels of organization should be explicitly considered during problem formulation. An approach to interpreting lines of evidence and weight of evidence is critically needed for complex assessments, and it would

  4. Judicial aspects in risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lukes, R.

    1977-01-01

    Decisions of administrative authorities concerning the permission to use fissile material contain a prognosis about the probability of damage which may be caused by using this material. The judicial criteria used in order to determine the probability of such a damage occurring can be improved by risk analysis. This will not, of course, reduce administrative decisions to simple 'yes-or-no decisions', but the calculation of probabilities will gain more exactness. (orig.) [de

  5. Can Ambulatory Blood Pressure Variability Contribute to Individual Cardiovascular Risk Stratification?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annamária Magdás

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. The aim of this study is to define the normal range for average real variability (ARV and to establish whether it can be considered as an additional cardiovascular risk factor. Methods. In this observational study, 110 treated hypertensive patients were included and admitted for antihypertensive treatment adjustment. Circadian blood pressure was recorded with validated devices. Blood pressure variability (BPV was assessed according to the ARV definition. Based on their variability, patients were classified into low, medium, and high variability groups using the fuzzy c-means algorithm. To assess cardiovascular risk, blood samples were collected. Characteristics of the groups were compared by ANOVA tests. Results. Low variability was defined as ARV below 9.8 mmHg (32 patients, medium as 9.8–12.8 mmHg (48 patients, and high variability above 12.8 mmHg (30 patients. Mean systolic blood pressure was 131.2 ± 16.7, 135.0 ± 12.1, and 141.5 ± 11.4 mmHg in the low, medium, and high variability groups, respectively (p=0.0113. Glomerular filtration rate was 78.6 ± 29.3, 74.8 ± 26.4, and 62.7±23.2 mL/min/1.73 m2 in the low, medium, and high variability groups, respectively (p=0.0261. Conclusion. Increased values of average real variability represent an additional cardiovascular risk factor. Therefore, reducing BP variability might be as important as achieving optimal BP levels, but there is need for further studies to define a widely acceptable threshold value.

  6. Risk Assessment of Genetically Modified Microorganisms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jacobsen, B. L.; Wilcks, Andrea

    2001-01-01

    the industry, national administration and research institutions were gathered to discuss which elements should be considered in a risk assessment of genetically modified microorganisms used as food or food ingredients. The existing EU and national regulations were presented, together with the experiences......The rapid development of recombinant DNA techniques for food organisms urges for an ongoing discussion on the risk assessment of both new as traditional use of microorganisms in food production. This report, supported by the Nordic Council of Ministers, is the result of a workshop where people from...... with risk assessment of these organisms in each Nordic country....

  7. Assessment factors for human health risk assessment: A discussion paper

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vermeire, T.; Stevenson, H.; Pieters, M.N.; Rennen, M.; Slob, W.; Hakkert, B.C.

    1999-01-01

    The general goal of this discussion paper is to contribute toward the further harmonization of human health risk assessment. It first discusses the development of a formal, harmonized set of assessment factors. The status quo with regard to assessment factors is reviewed, that is, the type of

  8. Assessment factors for human health risk assessment: a discussion paper

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vermeire TG; Stevenson H; Pieters MN; Rennen M; Slob W; Hakkert BC; Nederlandse organisatie voor; CSR; LEO; TNO-ITV

    1998-01-01

    The general goal of this discussion paper is to contribute towards further harmonisation of the human health risk assessment. It discusses the development of a formal, harmonised set of default assessment factors. The status quo with regard to assessment factors is reviewed. Options are presented

  9. Subjective risk assessment for planning conservation projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Game, Edward T; Fitzsimons, James A; Lipsett-Moore, Geoff; McDonald-Madden, Eve

    2013-01-01

    Conservation projects occur under many types of uncertainty. Where this uncertainty can affect achievement of a project’s objectives, there is risk. Understanding risks to project success should influence a range of strategic and tactical decisions in conservation, and yet, formal risk assessment rarely features in the guidance or practice of conservation planning. We describe how subjective risk analysis tools can be framed to facilitate the rapid identification and assessment of risks to conservation projects, and how this information should influence conservation planning. Our approach is illustrated with an assessment of risks to conservation success as part of a conservation plan for the work of The Nature Conservancy in northern Australia. Risks can be both internal and external to a project, and occur across environmental, social, economic and political systems. Based on the relative importance of a risk and the level of certainty in its assessment we propose a series of appropriate, project level responses including research, monitoring, and active amelioration. Explicit identification, prioritization, and where possible, management of risks are important elements of using conservation resources in an informed and accountable manner. (letter)

  10. Engineering aspects of probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    vonHerrmann, J.L.; Wood, P.J.

    1984-01-01

    Over the last decade, the use of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in the nuclear industry has expanded significantly. In these analyses the probabilities of experiencing certain undesired events (for example, a plant accident which results in damage to the nuclear fuel) are estimated and the consequences of these events are evaluated in terms of some common measure. These probabilities and consequences are then combined to form a representation of the risk associated with the plant studied. In the relatively short history of probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear power plants, the primary motivation for these studies has been the quantitative assessment of public risk associated with a single plant or group of plants. Accordingly, the primary product of most PRAs performed to date has been a 'risk curve' in which the probability (or expected frequency) of exceeding a certain consequence level is plotted against that consequence. The most common goal of these assessments has been to demonstrate the 'acceptability' of the calculated risk by comparison of the resultant risk curve to risk curves associated with other plants or with other societal risks. Presented here are brief descriptions of some alternate applications of PRAs, a discussion of how these other applications compare or contrast with the currently popular uses of PRA, and a discussion of the relative benefits of each

  11. Blood doping: risks to athletes' health and strategies for detection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliveira, Carolina Dizioli Rodrigues de; Bairros, André Valle de; Yonamine, Mauricio

    2014-07-01

    Blood doping has been defined as the misuse of substances or certain techniques to optimize oxygen delivery to muscles with the aim to increase performance in sports activities. It includes blood transfusion, administration of erythropoiesis-stimulating agents or blood substitutes, and gene manipulations. The main reasons for the widespread use of blood doping include: its availability for athletes (erythropoiesis-stimulating agents and blood transfusions), its efficiency in improving performance, and its difficult detection. This article reviews and discusses the blood doping substances and methods used for in sports, the adverse effects related to this practice, and current strategies for its detection.

  12. Chemical Risk Assessment: Traditional vs Public Health ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. When done efficiently and properly, chemical risk assessment enables risk management actions that minimize the incidence and impacts of environmentally-induced diseases related to chemical exposure. However, traditional chemical risk assessment is faced with multiple challenges with respect to predicting and preventing disease in human populations, and epidemiological studies increasingly report observations of adverse health effects at exposure levels predicted from animal studies to be safe for humans. This discordance reinforces concerns about the adequacy of contemporary risk assessment practices (Birnbaum, Burke, & Jones, 2016) for protecting public health. It is becoming clear that to protect public health more effectively, future risk assessments will need to use the full range of available data, draw on innovative methods to integrate diverse data streams, and consider health endpoints that also reflect the range of subtle effects and morbidities observed in human populations. Given these factors, there is a need to reframe chemical risk assessment to be more clearly aligned with the public health goal of minimizing environmental exposures associated with disease. Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. Chemical risk assessments

  13. The assessment and perception of risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daglish, J.

    1981-01-01

    A recent two-day meeting was called by the Royal Society to discuss all types of risks, but symptomatic of the concerns of most of those present, the discussion centred mainly on the risks inherent in energy production and use. Among the subjects considered were public perception of differing risks, and how these are ranked, and risks versus benefits. Quotations from and summaries of many of the papers presented show that it was generally felt that scientists must be very careful in the way that they use numerical assessments of risk and that they should pay more attention than they have to social and political factors. (U.K.)

  14. Nanomaterials: Regulation and Risk Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Steffen Foss; Grieger, Khara Deanne; Baun, Anders

    2013-01-01

    , the Water Framework Directive, pharmaceuticals regulation, and the Novel Foods Regulation. Current regulation of nanomaterials entail three overall challenges: 1) limitations in regard to terminology and definitions of key terms such as a “substance,” “novel food,” etc.; 2) safety assessment requirements...

  15. Assessing Your Board's Risk Tolerance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griswold, John S.; Jarvis, William F.

    2014-01-01

    In the wake of the financial crisis, trustees of many endowed nonprofit institutions realized that their portfolio was riskier than they thought and their own ability to tolerate loss wasn't as strong as they imagined. What can board and investment committee members do to improve their ability to assess their--and their institution's--capacity for…

  16. Nuclear insurance risk assessment using risk-based methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wendland, W.G.

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents American Nuclear Insurers' (ANI's) and Mutual Atomic Energy Liability Underwriters' (MAELU's) process and experience for conducting nuclear insurance risk assessments using a risk-based methodology. The process is primarily qualitative and uses traditional insurance risk assessment methods and an approach developed under the auspices of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) in which ANI/MAELU is an active sponsor. This process assists ANI's technical resources in identifying where to look for insurance risk in an industry in which insurance exposure tends to be dynamic and nonactuarial. The process is an evolving one that also seeks to minimize the impact on insureds while maintaining a mutually agreeable risk tolerance

  17. Cardiovascular risk assessment in hypertensive patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elaine Amaral de Paula

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: to assess cardiovascular risk by means of the traditional Framingham score and the version modified through the incorporation of emerging risk factors, such as family history of acute myocardial infarction, metabolic syndrome and chronic kidney disease. METHOD: participants were 50 hypertensive patients under outpatient treatment. The clinical data were collected through a semi-structured interview and the laboratory data from patients' histories. RESULTS: it was verified that the traditional Framingham score was predominantly low (74%, with 14% showing medium risk and 12% high risk. After the inclusion of emerging risk factors, the chance of a coronary event was low in 22% of the cases, medium in 56% and high in 22%. CONCLUSIONS: the comparison between the traditional Framingham risk score and the modified version demonstrated a significant difference in the cardiovascular risk classification, whose correlation shows discreet agreement between the two scales. Lifestyle elements seem to play a determinant role in the increase in cardiovascular risk levels.

  18. Models for assessing and managing credit risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neogradi Slađana

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This essay deals with the definition of a model for assessing and managing credit risk. Risk is an inseparable component of any average and normal credit transaction. Looking at the different aspects of the identification and classification of risk in the banking industry as well as representation of the key components of modern risk management. In the first part of the essay will analyze how the impact of credit risk on bank and empirical models for determining the financial difficulties in which the company can be found. Bank on the basis of these models can reduce number of approved risk assets. In the second part, we consider models for improving credit risk with emphasis on Basel I, II and III, and the third part, we conclude that the most appropriate model and gives the best effect for measuring credit risk in domestic banks.

  19. Blood pressure-lowering treatment strategies based on cardiovascular risk versus blood pressure: A meta-analysis of individual participant data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karmali, Kunal N; Lloyd-Jones, Donald M; van der Leeuw, Joep; Goff, David C; Yusuf, Salim; Zanchetti, Alberto; Glasziou, Paul; Jackson, Rodney; Woodward, Mark; Rodgers, Anthony; Neal, Bruce C; Berge, Eivind; Teo, Koon; Davis, Barry R; Chalmers, John; Pepine, Carl; Rahimi, Kazem; Sundström, Johan

    2018-03-01

    everyone with SBP ≥ 140 mmHg, a CVD risk strategy would require treatment of 3.8% (95% CI 12.5% fewer to 7.2% more) fewer persons to prevent the same number of events or would prevent 3.1% (95% CI 1.5%-5.0%) more events for the same number of persons treated, although the former estimate was not statistically significant. In subgroup analyses, the CVD risk strategy did not appear to be more beneficial than the SBP strategy in patients with diabetes mellitus or established CVD. A blood pressure-lowering treatment strategy based on predicted cardiovascular risk is more effective than one based on blood pressure levels alone across a range of thresholds. These results support using cardiovascular risk assessment to guide blood pressure treatment decision-making in moderate- to high-risk individuals, particularly for primary prevention.

  20. Blood pressure-lowering treatment strategies based on cardiovascular risk versus blood pressure: A meta-analysis of individual participant data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kunal N Karmali

    2018-03-01

    treating everyone with SBP ≥ 140 mmHg, a CVD risk strategy would require treatment of 3.8% (95% CI 12.5% fewer to 7.2% more fewer persons to prevent the same number of events or would prevent 3.1% (95% CI 1.5%-5.0% more events for the same number of persons treated, although the former estimate was not statistically significant. In subgroup analyses, the CVD risk strategy did not appear to be more beneficial than the SBP strategy in patients with diabetes mellitus or established CVD.A blood pressure-lowering treatment strategy based on predicted cardiovascular risk is more effective than one based on blood pressure levels alone across a range of thresholds. These results support using cardiovascular risk assessment to guide blood pressure treatment decision-making in moderate- to high-risk individuals, particularly for primary prevention.

  1. Interactive effects of vascular risk burden and advanced age on cerebral blood flow

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katherine eBangen

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Vascular risk factors and cerebral blood flow (CBF reduction have been linked to increased risk of cognitive impairment and Alzheimer’s disease (AD; however the possible moderating effects of age and vascular risk burden on CBF in late life remain understudied. We examined the relationships among elevated vascular risk burden, age, CBF, and cognition. Seventy-one non-demented older adults completed an arterial spin labeling MR scan, neuropsychological assessment, and medical history interview. Relationships among vascular risk burden, age, and CBF were examined in a priori regions of interest (ROIs previously implicated in aging and AD. Interaction effects indicated that, among older adults with elevated vascular risk burden (i.e., multiple vascular risk factors, advancing age was significantly associated with reduced cortical CBF whereas there was no such relationship for those with low vascular risk burden (i.e., no or one vascular risk factor. This pattern was observed in cortical ROIs including medial temporal (hippocampus, parahippocampal gyrus, uncus, inferior parietal (supramarginal gyrus, inferior parietal lobule, angular gyrus, and frontal (anterior cingulate, middle frontal gyrus, medial frontal gyrus cortices. Furthermore, among those with elevated vascular risk, reduced CBF was associated with poorer cognitive performance. Such findings suggest that older adults with elevated vascular risk burden may be particularly vulnerable to cognitive change as a function of CBF reductions. Findings support the use of CBF as a potential biomarker in preclinical AD and suggest that vascular risk burden and regionally-specific CBF changes may contribute to differential age-related cognitive declines.

  2. Disease state fingerprint for fall risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Similä, Heidi; Immonen, Milla

    2014-01-01

    Fall prevention is an important and complex multifactorial challenge, since one third of people over 65 years old fall at least once every year. A novel application of Disease State Fingerprint (DSF) algorithm is presented for holistic visualization of fall risk factors and identifying persons with falls history or decreased level of physical functioning based on fall risk assessment data. The algorithm is tested with data from 42 older adults, that went through a comprehensive fall risk assessment. Within the study population the Activities-specific Balance Confidence (ABC) scale score, Berg Balance Scale (BBS) score and the number of drugs in use were the three most relevant variables, that differed between the fallers and non-fallers. This study showed that the DSF visualization is beneficial in inspection of an individual's significant fall risk factors, since people have problems in different areas and one single assessment scale is not enough to expose all the people at risk.

  3. Assessing Extinction Risk: Integrating Genetic Information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jason Dunham

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available Risks of population extinction have been estimated using a variety of methods incorporating information from different spatial and temporal scales. We briefly consider how several broad classes of extinction risk assessments, including population viability analysis, incidence functions, and ranking methods integrate information on different temporal and spatial scales. In many circumstances, data from surveys of neutral genetic variability within, and among, populations can provide information useful for assessing extinction risk. Patterns of genetic variability resulting from past and present ecological and demographic events, can indicate risks of extinction that are otherwise difficult to infer from ecological and demographic analyses alone. We provide examples of how patterns of neutral genetic variability, both within, and among populations, can be used to corroborate and complement extinction risk assessments.

  4. Operationalization Of The Professional Risks Assessment Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivascu, Victoria Larisa; Cirjaliu, Bianca; Draghici, Anca

    2015-07-01

    Professional risks assessment approach (integration of analysis and evaluation processes) is linked with the general concerns of nowadays companies for their employees' health and safety assurances, in the context of organizations sustainable development. The paper presents an approach for the operationalization of the professional risk assessment activity in companies through the implementation and use of the OnRisk platform (this have been tested in some industrial companies). The short presentation of the relevant technical reports and statistics on OSH management at the European Union level underlines the need for the development of a professional risks assessment. Finally, there have been described the designed and developed OnRisk platform as a web platform together with some case studies that have validate the created tool.

  5. Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-03-01

    This report describes risk assessment methodology associated with the remedial action programs at the Hanford Reservation. Topics addressed include human health evaluation, pollutant and radionuclide transport through the environment, and environmental transport pathways

  6. Assessing Risk with GASB Statement No. 3.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Venita M.; Scott, Bob

    1987-01-01

    Discusses a Government Accounting Standards Board (GASB) publication designed to provide financial statement users with information to assess a government's actual and future deposit and investment market and credit risk. (MLF)

  7. Reducing the harms associated with risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Montague, Peter

    2004-01-01

    Risk assessments are the intellectual products of dedicated public health and environmental professionals. Like many other products, risk assessments carry with them the potential for both good and harm. This paper briefly examines some of the harms to which risk assessments have contributed, and then suggests that the legal 'duty to warn' doctrine offers a logical and practical way to reduce some of these harms. The paper suggests concepts that could be incorporated into warnings accompanying every formal risk assessment as routine 'boiler plate' addenda, just as other potentially harmful products, such as lawn mowers and cook stoves, are accompanied by warnings. Finally, the paper briefly examines the 'Code of Ethics and Standards of Practice for Environmental Professionals' (promulgated by the National Association of Environmental Professionals) and shows that the suggested warnings are consistent with recommended practices for environmental professionals

  8. Advanced Test Reactor probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atkinson, S.A.; Eide, S.A.; Khericha, S.T.; Thatcher, T.A.

    1993-01-01

    This report discusses Level 1 probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) incorporating a full-scope external events analysis which has been completed for the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) located at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory

  9. Framework for Shared Drinking Water Risk Assessment.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lowry, Thomas Stephen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Tidwell, Vincent C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Peplinski, William John [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Mitchell, Roger [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Binning, David [AEM Corp., Herndon, VA (United States); Meszaros, Jenny [AEM Corp., Herndon, VA (United States)

    2017-01-01

    Central to protecting our nation's critical infrastructure is the development of methodologies for prioritizing action and supporting resource allocation decisions associated with risk-reduction initiatives. Toward this need a web-based risk assessment framework that promotes the anonymous sharing of results among water utilities is demonstrated. Anonymous sharing of results offers a number of potential advantages such as assistance in recognizing and correcting bias, identification of 'unknown, unknowns', self-assessment and benchmarking for the local utility, treatment of shared assets and/or threats across multiple utilities, and prioritization of actions beyond the scale of a single utility. The constructed framework was demonstrated for three water utilities. Demonstration results were then compared to risk assessment results developed using a different risk assessment application by a different set of analysts.

  10. Audit Practices: Summary of Risk Assessment Methodologies

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2002-01-01

    .... The primary objective of an audit risk assessment is to provide its users with the assurance that audit resources are focused on those areas needing greatest attention and will provide the best value...

  11. Center for Advancing Microbial Risk Assessment

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Center for Advancing Microbial Risk Assessment (CAMRA), based at Michigan State University and jointly funded by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security and the...

  12. Procedures for health risk assessment in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Seeley, M.R.; Tonner-Navarro, L.E.; Beck, B.D.; Deskin, R.; Feron, V.J.; Johanson, G.; Bolt, H.M.

    2001-01-01

    This report compares cancer classification systems, health risk assessment approaches, and procedures used for establishing occupational exposure limits (OELs), in various European countries and scientific organizations. The objectives were to highlight and compare key aspects of these processes and

  13. Science and judgment in risk assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    National Research Council (U.S.). Committee on Risk Assessment of Hazardous Air Pollutants

    .... This comprehensive and readable book explores how the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) can improve its risk assessment practices, with a focus on implementation of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments...

  14. Business managers turn to risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allen, Frank

    1993-01-01

    Risk assessments have evolved to help technical managers in nuclear and other industries to design and operate plant with safety in mind. However, they are now developing into the area of business management. (author)

  15. Association of blood lipid levels with the risk of cholecystectomy and postoperative pain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    WANG Qiang

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available ObjectiveTo investigate whether blood lipid control can delay the progression of asymptomatic gallstones and reduce the risk of cholecystectomy in patients with gallstones and hyperlipidemia, as well as the influence of hyperlipidemia on postoperative pain after cholecystectomy. MethodsA total of 153 patients with asymptomatic gallstones and hyperlipidemia who underwent physical examination from February 2013 to February 2015 were enrolled and randomly divided into experimental group with 72 patients and control group with 81 patients. The patients in the experimental group were given blood lipid control via diet, exercise, and drugs, and according to fasting triglyceride (TG and total cholesterol (TC after 3 months, these patients were further divided into normal blood lipid group with 47 patients and abnormal blood lipid group with 25 patients. All the patients were followed up for 2 years with an interval of 3 months. The surgical indications for laparoscopic cholecystectomy were persistent pain in the gallbladder or more than 3 times of gallbladder discomfort within the past one month. A subgroup analysis was performed based on the number and size of gallstones to evaluate the risk of cholecystectomy. A numerical pain scale was used to assess the improvement in pain during hospitalization and at 3 and 6 months after surgery. The t-test was used for comparison of continuous data between two groups; a one-way analysis of variance was used for comparison between three groups, and the Bonferroni test was used for further comparison between any two groups. The chi-square test was used for comparison of categorical data between groups. ResultsThe normal blood lipid group had a significantly lower rate of cholecystectomy than the abnormal blood lipid group and the control group (23.4% vs 68.8%/70.4%, χ2=2772, P<0.01. The patients in the normal blood lipid group had moderate pain during hospitalization, while those in the abnormal blood lipid

  16. Discriminating the hemolytic risk of blood type A plasmas using the complement hemolysis using human erythrocytes (CHUHE) assay.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunnion, Kenji M; Hair, Pamela S; Krishna, Neel K; Sass, Megan A; Enos, Clinton W; Whitley, Pamela H; Maes, Lanne Y; Goldberg, Corinne L

    2017-03-01

    The agglutination-based cross-matching method is sensitive for antibody binding to red blood cells but is only partially predictive of complement-mediated hemolysis, which is important in many acute hemolytic transfusion reactions. Here, we describe complement hemolysis using human erythrocytes (CHUHE) assays that directly evaluate complement-mediated hemolysis between individual serum-plasma and red blood cell combinations. The CHUHE assay is used to evaluate correlations between agglutination titers and complement-mediated hemolysis as well as the hemolytic potential of plasma from type A blood donors. Plasma or serum from each type A blood donor was incubated with AB or B red blood cells in the CHUHE assay and measured for free hemoglobin release. CHUHE assays for serum or plasma demonstrate a wide, dynamic range and high sensitivity for complement-mediated hemolysis for individual serum/plasma and red blood cell combinations. CHUHE results suggest that agglutination assays alone are only moderately predictive of complement-mediated hemolysis. CHUHE results also suggest that plasma from particular type A blood donors produce minimal complement-mediated hemolysis, whereas plasma from other type A blood donors produce moderate to high-level complement-mediated hemolysis, depending on the red blood cell donor. The current results indicate that the CHUHE assay can be used to assess complement-mediated hemolysis for plasma or serum from a type A blood donor, providing additional risk discrimination over agglutination titers alone. © 2016 AABB.

  17. ABO blood type and the risk of cancer - Findings from the Shanghai Cohort Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joyce Yongxu Huang

    Full Text Available ABO blood type is an inherited characteristic. The associations between ABO blood type and risk of all cancer and specific cancers were examined in a prospective cohort study of 18,244 Chinese men enrolled in 1986. During the 25 years of follow-up, 3,973 men developed cancer including 964 lung cancers, 624 colorectal cancers, 560 gastric cancers, 353 liver cancers, and 172 urinary bladder cancers. Hazard ratios (HR for all cancer and specific cancers by ABO blood type were calculated using Cox proportional hazards models. Compared with blood type A, blood type B was associated with statistically significant reduced risk of all cancers (HR, 0.91, 95% CI:0.84, 0.99. Both blood types B and AB were associated with significantly lower risk of gastrointestinal cancer and colorectal cancer, respectively. Blood type B was also associated with significantly lower risk of stomach cancer and bladder cancer, while blood type AB was associated with significantly increased risk of liver cancer. By histological type, blood types B and AB were associated with lower risk of epidermoid carcinoma and adenocarcinoma, but were not associated with risk of sarcoma, lymphoma, leukemia or other cell types of cancer. The findings of this study support a role of genetic traits related to ABO blood type in the development of cancers in the gastrointestinal and urinary tracts.

  18. ABO blood type and the risk of cancer - Findings from the Shanghai Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Joyce Yongxu; Wang, Renwei; Gao, Yu-Tang; Yuan, Jian-Min

    2017-01-01

    ABO blood type is an inherited characteristic. The associations between ABO blood type and risk of all cancer and specific cancers were examined in a prospective cohort study of 18,244 Chinese men enrolled in 1986. During the 25 years of follow-up, 3,973 men developed cancer including 964 lung cancers, 624 colorectal cancers, 560 gastric cancers, 353 liver cancers, and 172 urinary bladder cancers. Hazard ratios (HR) for all cancer and specific cancers by ABO blood type were calculated using Cox proportional hazards models. Compared with blood type A, blood type B was associated with statistically significant reduced risk of all cancers (HR, 0.91, 95% CI:0.84, 0.99). Both blood types B and AB were associated with significantly lower risk of gastrointestinal cancer and colorectal cancer, respectively. Blood type B was also associated with significantly lower risk of stomach cancer and bladder cancer, while blood type AB was associated with significantly increased risk of liver cancer. By histological type, blood types B and AB were associated with lower risk of epidermoid carcinoma and adenocarcinoma, but were not associated with risk of sarcoma, lymphoma, leukemia or other cell types of cancer. The findings of this study support a role of genetic traits related to ABO blood type in the development of cancers in the gastrointestinal and urinary tracts.

  19. ABO blood type and the risk of cancer – Findings from the Shanghai Cohort Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Renwei; Gao, Yu-Tang

    2017-01-01

    ABO blood type is an inherited characteristic. The associations between ABO blood type and risk of all cancer and specific cancers were examined in a prospective cohort study of 18,244 Chinese men enrolled in 1986. During the 25 years of follow-up, 3,973 men developed cancer including 964 lung cancers, 624 colorectal cancers, 560 gastric cancers, 353 liver cancers, and 172 urinary bladder cancers. Hazard ratios (HR) for all cancer and specific cancers by ABO blood type were calculated using Cox proportional hazards models. Compared with blood type A, blood type B was associated with statistically significant reduced risk of all cancers (HR, 0.91, 95% CI:0.84, 0.99). Both blood types B and AB were associated with significantly lower risk of gastrointestinal cancer and colorectal cancer, respectively. Blood type B was also associated with significantly lower risk of stomach cancer and bladder cancer, while blood type AB was associated with significantly increased risk of liver cancer. By histological type, blood types B and AB were associated with lower risk of epidermoid carcinoma and adenocarcinoma, but were not associated with risk of sarcoma, lymphoma, leukemia or other cell types of cancer. The findings of this study support a role of genetic traits related to ABO blood type in the development of cancers in the gastrointestinal and urinary tracts. PMID:28880901

  20. Vulnerability Identification Errors in Security Risk Assessments

    OpenAIRE

    Taubenberger, Stefan

    2014-01-01

    At present, companies rely on information technology systems to achieve their business objectives, making them vulnerable to cybersecurity threats. Information security risk assessments help organisations to identify their risks and vulnerabilities. An accurate identification of risks and vulnerabilities is a challenge, because the input data is uncertain. So-called ’vulnerability identification errors‘ can occur if false positive vulnerabilities are identified, or if vulnerabilities remain u...

  1. Handling Interdependencies in Climate Change Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Dawson, Richard

    2015-01-01

    Typically, a climate change risk assessment focuses on individual sectors or hazards. However, interdependencies between climate risks manifest themselves via functional, physical, geographical, economic, policy and social mechanisms. These can occur over a range of spatial or temporal scales and with different strengths of coupling. Three case studies are used to demonstrate how interdependencies can significantly alter the nature and magnitude of risk, and, consequently, investment prioriti...

  2. Creation of a Risk Assessment Methodology

    OpenAIRE

    Lefebvre, Nicolas

    2007-01-01

    This report is a presentation of the work realised during an internship at the consultancy division of Thales Security Systems from September 2005 to June 2006. Thales Security Systems is part of Thales, an international group in defence, aeronautics, etc. The work realised consisted in the creation of a new risk assessment methodology for a commercial offer called HELP, standing for Human, Environmental, Logical and Physical security. As a basis for the work, 5 existing risk assessment metho...

  3. Environmental risk assessment of pesticides in Ethiopia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Teklu, B.M.

    2016-01-01

    The current increase in application rate and usage frequency of application of pesticides in Ethiopia pose direct risks to surface water aquatic organisms and humans and cattle using surface water as a source of drinking water in rural parts of the country. A model based risk assessment as

  4. Mergers and acquisitions: valuation and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Calvin, B.N.

    1996-01-01

    An independent review of all facets of risk management, as it pertains to mergers and acquisitions within the petroleum industry, with no transactional motivation, was provided by a representative of a firm specializing in all phases of risk assessment. The following topics received attention: (1) the forward curve versus industry expectations, (2) investor expectations, (3) financial versus physical transactions, and (4) synthetic debt

  5. Risk assessment of complex accident scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kluegel, Jens-Uwe

    2012-01-01

    The use of methods of risk assessment in accidents in nuclear plants is based on an old tradition. The first consistent systematic study is considered to be the Rasmussen Study of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NRC, WASH-1400. Above and beyond the realm of nuclear technology, there is an extensive range of accident, risk and reliability research into technical-administrative systems. In the past, it has been this area of research which has led to the development of concepts of safety precautions of the type also introduced into nuclear technology (barrier concept, defense in depth, single-failure criterion), where they are now taken for granted as trivial concepts. Also for risk analysis, nuclear technology made use of methods (such as event and fault tree analyses) whose origins were outside the nuclear field. One area in which the use of traditional methods of probabilistic safety analysis is encountering practical problems is risk assessment of complex accident scenarios in nuclear technology. A definition is offered of the term 'complex accident scenarios' in nuclear technology. A number of problems are addressed which arise in the use of traditional PSA procedures in risk assessment of complex accident scenarios. Cases of complex accident scenarios are presented to demonstrate methods of risk assessment which allow robust results to be obtained even when traditional techniques of risk analysis are maintained as a matter of principle. These methods are based on the use of conditional risk metrics. (orig.)

  6. Gender and risk assessment in contraceptive technologies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Kammen, Jessika; Oudshoorn, Nelly E.J.

    This paper concerns a comparison of risk assessment practices of contraceptives for women and men. Our analysis shows how the evaluation of health risks of contraceptives does not simply reflect the specific effects of chemical compounds in the human body. Rather, we show how side-effects were rated

  7. Risk Assessment in Finland: Theory and Practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hannu Anttonen

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The Finnish risk assessment practice is based on the Occupational Safety and Health Act aiming to improve working conditions in order maintain the employees' work ability, and to prevent occupational accidents and diseases. In practice there are hundreds of risk assessment methods in use. A simple method is used in SME's and more complex risk evaluation methods in larger work places. Does the risk management function in the work places in Finland? According to our experience something more is needed. That is, understanding of common and company related benefits of risk management. The wider conclusion is that commitment for risk assessment in Finland is high enough. However, in those enterprises where OSH management was at an acceptable level or above it, there were also more varied and more successfully accomplished actions to remove or reduce the risks than in enterprises, where OSH management was in lower level. In risk assessment it is important to process active technical prevention and exact communication, increase work place attraction and increase job satisfaction and motivation. Investments in occupational safety and health are also good business. Low absenteeism due to illness or accidents increases directly the production results by improved quality and quantity of the product. In general Finnish studies have consistently shown that the return of an invested euro is three to seven-old. In national level, according to our calculations the savings could be even 20% of our gross national product.

  8. Uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blöschl, Günter; Hall, Julia; Kiss, Andrea; Parajka, Juraj; Perdigão, Rui A. P.; Rogger, Magdalena; Salinas, José Luis; Viglione, Alberto

    2017-04-01

    Uncertainty is inherent to flood risk assessments because of the complexity of the human-water system, which is characterised by nonlinearities and interdependencies, because of limited knowledge about system properties and because of cognitive biases in human perception and decision-making. On top of the uncertainty associated with the assessment of the existing risk to extreme events, additional uncertainty arises because of temporal changes in the system due to climate change, modifications of the environment, population growth and the associated increase in assets. Novel risk assessment concepts are needed that take into account all these sources of uncertainty. They should be based on the understanding of how flood extremes are generated and how they change over time. They should also account for the dynamics of risk perception of decision makers and population in the floodplains. In this talk we discuss these novel risk assessment concepts through examples from Flood Frequency Hydrology, Socio-Hydrology and Predictions Under Change. We believe that uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment should lead to a robust approach of integrated flood risk management aiming at enhancing resilience rather than searching for optimal defense strategies.

  9. Risk Assessment Uncertainties in Cybersecurity Investments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Fielder

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available When undertaking cybersecurity risk assessments, it is important to be able to assign numeric values to metrics to compute the final expected loss that represents the risk that an organization is exposed to due to cyber threats. Even if risk assessment is motivated by real-world observations and data, there is always a high chance of assigning inaccurate values due to different uncertainties involved (e.g., evolving threat landscape, human errors and the natural difficulty of quantifying risk. Existing models empower organizations to compute optimal cybersecurity strategies given their financial constraints, i.e., available cybersecurity budget. Further, a general game-theoretic model with uncertain payoffs (probability-distribution-valued payoffs shows that such uncertainty can be incorporated in the game-theoretic model by allowing payoffs to be random. This paper extends previous work in the field to tackle uncertainties in risk assessment that affect cybersecurity investments. The findings from simulated examples indicate that although uncertainties in cybersecurity risk assessment lead, on average, to different cybersecurity strategies, they do not play a significant role in the final expected loss of the organization when utilising a game-theoretic model and methodology to derive these strategies. The model determines robust defending strategies even when knowledge regarding risk assessment values is not accurate. As a result, it is possible to show that the cybersecurity investments’ tool is capable of providing effective decision support.

  10. Risk assessment instruments in clinical practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Côté, Gilles; Crocker, Anne G; Nicholls, Tonia L; Seto, Michael C

    2012-04-01

    To determine whether the items in one of the most widely validated instruments of violence risk assessment, the Historical-Clinical-Risk Management-20 (HCR-20), are used in review board hearings to assess the risk of violence by people found Not Criminally Responsible on account of Mental Disorder (NCRMD). This study was conducted from October 2004 to August 2006 in Quebec's sole forensic psychiatric hospital and 2 large civil psychiatric hospitals designated for the care of people declared NCRMD in the Montreal metropolitan area. The risk assessments presented by clinicians at annual review board hearings and the boards' rationale for the release or detention of people found NCRMD were contrasted with the risk assessments conducted by the research team using the HCR-20. The final sample was comprised of 96 men. Very few of the risk factors identified by prior research (HCR-20 items) were mentioned in the hearing process, whether in clinical reports, discussions during the hearing, or in the disposition justification. The findings confirm that there remains a significant gap between research evidence and risk assessment practice.

  11. Risk Assessment Stability: A Revalidation Study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment Instrument

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwalbe, Craig S.

    2009-01-01

    The actuarial method is the gold standard for risk assessment in child welfare, juvenile justice, and criminal justice. It produces risk classifications that are highly predictive and that may be robust to sampling error. This article reports a revalidation study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment instrument, an actuarial instrument for juvenile…

  12. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein, E-mail: mahmoudi@uni-hohenheim.de [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C. (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Renn, Ortwin [Department of Technology and Environmental Sociology (and DIALOGIK), University of Stuttgart (Germany); Vanclay, Frank [Department of Cultural Geography, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Hoffmann, Volker [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Karami, Ezatollah [College of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2013-11-15

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.

  13. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-01-01

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary

  14. Assessment of light stability of drugs in blood and plasma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Vries, Ronald; Diels, Luc; Dillen, Lieve; Sips, Luc; Van Roosbroek, Dirk; Verhaeghe, Tom; Timmerman, Philip

    2016-10-01

    A procedure was developed for the assessment of photochemical stability of drugs in blood and plasma under standardized conditions. The procedure avoids a variable outcome of photochemical stability experiments and tests relevant worst case conditions so that unnecessary light protection is avoided. Results/methodology: Blood and plasma were spiked with a mixture of drugs and incubated in a Suntest CPS(+), in the laboratory on the bench and near the window on a sunny summer day. The results were compared. No protection from light, limited protection from light and full protection from light are advised for drugs that are stable in plasma in the Suntest CPS(+) at 250 W/m(2) for at least 30 min, for 5-30 min and for <5 min, respectively.

  15. Risk assessment approach for Rokkasho reprocessing plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ootou, Y.; Tamauchi, Y.; Hayashi, Y.; Takebe, K.; Miyata, T.

    2006-01-01

    Full text: It is desirable that the operation and maintenance of Rokkasho Reprocessing Plant (RRP) be established and conducted with maximum effectiveness and efficiency, making the best use of risk information to help the plant achieve further enhanced safety. Risk assessment is applied for RRP, and upgraded risk information is established. In the basic design phase, the potential incidents and accidents that might occur in the plant were identified systematically and exhaustively adopting the HAZOP method. After screening the potential for occurrence, the design basis accidents (DBAs) were identified and it was confirmed that the plant would not put the general public at risk of significant radiation exposure in the case of such accidents, even when assuming the single failure of dynamic apparatus in the prevention and mitigation systems. To support the deterministic safety assessment mentioned above, the risk assessment was conducted during the basic design phase. Of the DBAs and out-of-design basis accidents excluded from DBAs because of extremely rare occurrence possibilities, the risk assessment was conducted for such accidents which might cause relatively high consequence for the general public. The risk assessment was conducted using the PSA method generally used for nuclear power plants. After that, a review of the occurrence frequency assessment for some of the accidents was made, taking into account information relating to detailed design and operation procedures. Typical examples are a loss of the hydrogen scavenging function in the plutonium solution tank and a loss of cooling capability in the high-active liquid waste storage tank. The occurrence frequency for a loss of the hydrogen scavenging function was less than 10 -5 /year. The occurrence frequency for a loss of cooling capability was less than 10 -7 /year. In addition, an importance assessment (FV index, Risk Achievement Worth) was conducted, such as a contribution to the occurrence frequency

  16. Emerging infectious disease outbreaks: estimating disease risk in Australian blood donors travelling overseas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coghlan, A; Hoad, V C; Seed, C R; Flower, R Lp; Harley, R J; Herbert, D; Faddy, H M

    2018-01-01

    International travel assists spread of infectious pathogens. Australians regularly travel to South-eastern Asia and the isles of the South Pacific, where they may become infected with infectious agents, such as dengue (DENV), chikungunya (CHIKV) and Zika (ZIKV) viruses that pose a potential risk to transfusion safety. In Australia, donors are temporarily restricted from donating for fresh component manufacture following travel to many countries, including those in this study. We aimed to estimate the unmitigated transfusion-transmission (TT) risk from donors travelling internationally to areas affected by emerging infectious diseases. We used the European Up-Front Risk Assessment Tool, with travel and notification data, to estimate the TT risk from donors travelling to areas affected by disease outbreaks: Fiji (DENV), Bali (DENV), Phuket (DENV), Indonesia (CHIKV) and French Polynesia (ZIKV). We predict minimal risk from travel, with the annual unmitigated risk of an infected component being released varying from 1 in 1·43 million to disease outbreak areas to source plasma collection provides a simple and effective risk management approach. © 2017 International Society of Blood Transfusion.

  17. Evaluating health risks posed by heavy metals to humans consuming blood cockles (Anadara granosa) from the Upper Gulf of Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sudsandee, Suntorn; Tantrakarnapa, Kraichat; Tharnpoophasiam, Prapin; Limpanont, Yanin; Mingkhwan, Ratchaneekorn; Worakhunpiset, Suwalee

    2017-06-01

    There is global concern about heavy metal contamination in the environment. Adverse health effects can be caused by heavy metals in contaminated food and water. Therefore, environmental monitoring studies and risk assessments should be conducted periodically. In this study, we measured levels of Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Mn, Ni, Pb, and Zn in blood cockles (Anadara granosa) collected from three locations in the Upper Gulf of Thailand. Hazard quotients and hazard indices were calculated to evaluate the health risks posed by heavy metals in consumed blood cockles. Heavy metal concentrations in all of the blood cockle samples were lower than the relevant food standards. The hazard quotients and hazard indices were heavy metals in blood cockles over a human lifetime.

  18. [Assessment of maternal cerebral blood flow in patients with preeclampsia].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandić, Vesna; Miković, Zeljko; Dukić, Milan; Vasiljević, Mladenko; Filimonović, Dejan; Bogavac, Mirjana

    2005-01-01

    Systemic vasoconstriction in preeclamptic patients increases vascular resistance, and is manifested by increased arterial blood flow velocity. The aim of the study is to evaluate if there is a change of Doppler indices in maternal medial cerbral artery (MCA) in severe preeclampsia due to: 1) severity of clinical symptoms, 2) the begining of eclamptic attack and 3) the application of anticonvulsive therapy. A prospective clinical study included 92 pregnant women, gestational age 28-36 weeks. They were divided into three groups: normotensive (n=30), mild preeclampsia (n=33), and severe preeclampsia (n=29). We investigated maternal cerebral circulation by assessing the MCA. We registrated: pulsatility index (Pi), resistance index (Ri), systolic/diastolic ratio (S/D), and the maximum systolic, end diastolic and medium velocity. Patients with severe preeclampsia were divided into two subgroups. subgroup 1 included patients without symptoms of threatening eclampsia (n=18; 62.06%); while subgroup 2 included those with symptoms of preeclampsia (n=11; 37.94%). All patients with severe preeclampsia were treated with magnesium sulfate (MgSO4), and cerebral blood flow was measured before and after the treatment. Statistical analysis was done by oneway ANOVA, Student t-test and t-paired sample test. The difference was considered to be significant if ppreclampsia we found increased velocity values, Pi and Ri, especially in patients with signs of threatened eclampsia, suggesting that blood vessels changes are most prominent in severe preeclampsia. Cerebral blood flow meassurements can be used as a clinical test for the prediction of eclampsia. Magnesium-sulfate (MgSO4) has a signifficant role in prophylaxis and treatment of eclampsia, and, therefore, positive influence on reduction of cerebral ishemic lesions can be expected. We can conclude that changes of the cerebral blood flow can be evaluated by evaluating blood flow velocities in the medial cerebral artery. Velocities tend

  19. Value of routine blood tests for prediction of mortality risk in hip fracture patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mosfeldt, Mathias; Pedersen, Ole Birger Vesterager; Riis, Troels

    2012-01-01

    There is a 5- to 8-fold increased risk of mortality during the first 3 months after a hip fracture. Several risk factors are known. We studied the predictive value (for mortality) of routine blood tests taken on admission.......There is a 5- to 8-fold increased risk of mortality during the first 3 months after a hip fracture. Several risk factors are known. We studied the predictive value (for mortality) of routine blood tests taken on admission....

  20. Assessment and uncertainty analysis of groundwater risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Fawen; Zhu, Jingzhao; Deng, Xiyuan; Zhao, Yong; Li, Shaofei

    2018-01-01

    Groundwater with relatively stable quantity and quality is commonly used by human being. However, as the over-mining of groundwater, problems such as groundwater funnel, land subsidence and salt water intrusion have emerged. In order to avoid further deterioration of hydrogeological problems in over-mining regions, it is necessary to conduct the assessment of groundwater risk. In this paper, risks of shallow and deep groundwater in the water intake area of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project in Tianjin, China, were evaluated. Firstly, two sets of four-level evaluation index system were constructed based on the different characteristics of shallow and deep groundwater. Secondly, based on the normalized factor values and the synthetic weights, the risk values of shallow and deep groundwater were calculated. Lastly, the uncertainty of groundwater risk assessment was analyzed by indicator kriging method. The results meet the decision maker's demand for risk information, and overcome previous risk assessment results expressed in the form of deterministic point estimations, which ignore the uncertainty of risk assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Variability in blood and blood component utilization as assessed by an anesthesia information management system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank, Steven M; Savage, Will J; Rothschild, Jim A; Rivers, Richard J; Ness, Paul M; Paul, Sharon L; Ulatowski, John A

    2012-07-01

    Data can be collected for various purposes with anesthesia information management systems. The authors describe methods for using data acquired from an anesthesia information management system to assess intraoperative utilization of blood and blood components. Over an 18-month period, data were collected on 48,086 surgical patients at a tertiary care academic medical center. All data were acquired with an automated anesthesia recordkeeping system. Detailed reports were generated for blood and blood component utilization according to surgical service and surgical procedure, and for individual surgeons and anesthesiologists. Transfusion hemoglobin trigger and target concentrations were compared among surgical services and procedures, and between individual medical providers. For all patients given erythrocytes, the mean transfusion hemoglobin trigger was 8.4 ± 1.5, and the target was 10.2 ± 1.5 g/dl. Variation was significant among surgical services (trigger range: 7.5 ± 1.2-9.5 ± 1.1, P = 0.0001; target range: 9.1 ± 1.2-11.3 ± 1.4 g/dl, P = 0.002), surgeons (trigger range: 7.2 ± 0.7-9.8 ± 1.0, P = 0.001; target range: 8.8 ± 0.9-11.8 ± 1.3 g/dl, P = 0.001), and anesthesiologists (trigger range: 7.2 ± 0.8-9.6 ± 1.2, P = 0.001; target range: 9.0 ± 0.9-11.7 ± 1.3 g/dl, P = 0.0004). The use of erythrocyte salvage, fresh frozen plasma, and platelets varied threefold to fourfold among individual surgeons compared with their peers performing the same surgical procedure. The use of data acquired from an anesthesia information management system allowed a detailed analysis of blood component utilization, which revealed significant variation among surgical services and surgical procedures, and among individual anesthesiologists and surgeons compared with their peers. Incorporating these methods of data acquisition and analysis into a blood management program could reduce unnecessary transfusions, an outcome that may increase patient safety and reduce costs.

  2. Risk assessment methodologies for predicting phosphorus losses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schoumans, O.F.; Chardon, W.J.

    2003-01-01

    Risk assessment parameters are needed to assess the contribution of phosphorus (P) losses from soil to surface water, and the effectiveness of nutrient and land management strategies for the reduction of P loss. These parameters need to take into account the large temporal and spatial variation in P

  3. Risk assessment of soil contamination criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    King, C.M.; Marter, W.L.; Montaque, D.F.; Holton, G.A.

    1987-06-01

    Criteria have been developed to select radioactive and nonradioactive contaminants at waste sites detailed analysis and risk assessment. These criteria were based on soil and water quality guidelines developed by various government agencies to determine if the criteria were appropriate. We performed a risk assessment of a hypothetical site which contained radioactive and nonradioactive contaminants at levels equal to the criteria values. Risks to the public from atmospheric, surface water, and groundwater exposure pathways were examined. Health risks to the public from atmospheric releases of radioactive and nonradioactive materials from a waste at soil criteria contamination levels are low. Health risks to the maximally exposed individual to chemical carcinogens are considerably below traditional EPA action levels. And health risks to the maximally exposed individual to atmospherically released radioactive contaminants is 1.88 x 10 -7 , more than a factor of 5 less than 10 -6 . Based on our atmospheric exposure pathways analysis and risk assessment, the applied soil criteria are appropriate for screening out unimportant risk contributors to human health from atmospheric exposure pathways. 13 refs., 3 figs., 7 tabs

  4. PRECIS -- A probabilistic risk assessment system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, D.M.; Knowlton, R.G. Jr.

    1996-01-01

    A series of computer tools has been developed to conduct the exposure assessment and risk characterization phases of human health risk assessments within a probabilistic framework. The tools are collectively referred to as the Probabilistic Risk Evaluation and Characterization Investigation System (PRECIS). With this system, a risk assessor can calculate the doses and risks associated with multiple environmental and exposure pathways, for both chemicals and radioactive contaminants. Exposure assessment models in the system account for transport of contaminants to receptor points from a source zone originating in unsaturated soils above the water table. In addition to performing calculations of dose and risk based on initial concentrations, PRECIS can also be used in an inverse manner to compute soil concentrations in the source area that must not be exceeded if prescribed limits on dose or risk are to be met. Such soil contaminant levels, referred to as soil guidelines, are computed for both single contaminants and chemical mixtures and can be used as action levels or cleanup levels. Probabilistic estimates of risk, dose and soil guidelines are derived using Monte Carlo techniques

  5. Hanford waste vitrification systems risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, W.C.; Hamilton, D.W.; Holton, L.K.; Bailey, J.W.

    1991-09-01

    A systematic Risk Assessment was performed to identify the technical, regulatory, and programmatic uncertainties and to quantify the risks to the Hanford Site double-shell tank waste vitrification program baseline (as defined in December 1990). Mitigating strategies to reduce the overall program risk were proposed. All major program elements were evaluated, including double-shell tank waste characterization, Tank Farms, retrieval, pretreatment, vitrification, and grouting. Computer-based techniques were used to quantify risks to proceeding with construction of the Hanford Waste Vitrification Plant on the present baseline schedule. Risks to the potential vitrification of single-shell tank wastes and cesium and strontium capsules were also assessed. 62 refs., 38 figs., 26 tabs

  6. Assessment of risk from radiation sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Subbaratnam, T.; Madhvanath, U.; Somasundaram, S.

    1976-01-01

    Assessment of risk from exposure to ionizing radiations from man-made radiation sources and nuclear installations has to be viewed from three aspects, namely, dose-effect relationship (genetic and somatic) for humans, calculation of doses or dose-commitments to population groups, assessment of risk to radiation workers and the population at large from the current levels of exposure from nuclear industry and comparison of risk estimates with other industries in a modern society. These aspects are discussed in brief. On the basis of available data, it is shown that estimated incidence of genetic diseases and cancers due to exposure of population to radiation from nuclear industry is negligible in comparison with their natural incidence, and radiation risks to the workers in nuclear industry are much lower than the risks in other occupations. (M.G.B.)

  7. An integrated risk assessment approach: Risk assessment in the programmatic environmental impact statement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morris, J.M.

    1994-01-01

    The following paper is an informal summary of salient points made in the presentation entitled open-quotes An Integrated Risk Assessment Approach: Risk Assessment in the Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS).close quotes. This presentation was given at the U.S. DOE Integrated Planning Workshop in Denver, Colorado on June 2, 1994. Integrated decision analysis is very important in environmental restoration and waste management in the evaluation of such things as land use planning, waste load forecasting, cost analyses, and technology development activities. Integrated risk assessment is an approach that addresses multiple components of risk, including: risks from surplus facilities as well as typical environmental restoration sites, risks to the public, risks to workers, ecological risk, risks before, during and after remediation activities, and others

  8. Quantifying Blood Loss and Transfusion Risk After Primary vs Conversion Total Hip Arthroplasty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newman, Jared M; Webb, Matthew R; Klika, Alison K; Murray, Trevor G; Barsoum, Wael K; Higuera, Carlos A

    2017-06-01

    Primary total hip arthroplasty (THA) and conversion THA may result in substantial blood loss, sometimes necessitating transfusion. Despite the complexities of the latter, both are grouped in the same category for quality assessment and reimbursement. This study's purpose was to compare both blood loss and transfusion risk in primary and conversion THA and identify their associated predictors. A total of 1616 patients who underwent primary and conversion THA at a single hospital from 2009-2013 were reviewed (primary THA = 1575; conversion THA = 41). Demographics, comorbidities, and perioperative data were collected from electronic records. Blood loss was calculated using a validated method. Transfusion triggers were based on standardized criteria. Separate multivariable regression models for blood loss and transfusion were performed. Conversion THA patients were younger (P = .002), had lower age-adjusted Charlson scores (P = .006), longer surgeries (P quantified in the present study and showed consistent results between the 2 metrics. The differences between these procedures should be addressed during quality assurance because conversion THA is associated with higher resource utilization, which is important in the allocation of resources and tiered reimbursement strategies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. New approaches for improving cardiovascular risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paredes, Simão; Rocha, Teresa; Mendes, Diana; Carvalho, Paulo; Henriques, Jorge; Morais, João; Ferreira, Jorge; Mendes, Miguel

    2016-01-01

    Clinical guidelines recommend the use of cardiovascular risk assessment tools (risk scores) to predict the risk of events such as cardiovascular death, since these scores can aid clinical decision-making and thereby reduce the social and economic costs of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, despite their importance, risk scores present important weaknesses that can diminish their reliability in clinical contexts. This study presents a new framework, based on current risk assessment tools, that aims to minimize these limitations. Appropriate application and combination of existing knowledge is the main focus of this work. Two different methodologies are applied: (i) a combination scheme that enables data to be extracted and processed from various sources of information, including current risk assessment tools and the contributions of the physician; and (ii) a personalization scheme based on the creation of patient groups with the purpose of identifying the most suitable risk assessment tool to assess the risk of a specific patient. Validation was performed based on a real patient dataset of 460 patients at Santa Cruz Hospital, Lisbon, Portugal, diagnosed with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome. Promising results were obtained with both approaches, which achieved sensitivity, specificity and geometric mean of 78.79%, 73.07% and 75.87%, and 75.69%, 69.79% and 72.71%, respectively. The proposed approaches present better performances than current CVD risk scores; however, additional datasets are required to back up these findings. Copyright © 2015 Sociedade Portuguesa de Cardiologia. Published by Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

  10. The issue of risk dilution in risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilmot, R.; Robinson, P.

    2004-01-01

    This paper explores an issue that was first highlighted more than 20 years ago during an inquiry concerning the Sizeweli B nuclear power station in the UK. In the probabilistic safety assessment for this plant, the proponent had apparently reduced its estimates of risk by admitting to increased uncertainty about the timing of certain events. This situation is counter-intuitive, since an increase in uncertainty about the factors contributing to safety would be expected to lead to less confidence and hence to greater risk. This paradoxical situation was termed 'risk dilution' and it has been a topic of interest to reviewers of safety cases since. The recent international peer review of the Yucca Mountain performance assessments concluded that there was a potential for risk dilution in the assumptions and calculations presented. The next section describes how assumptions about the timing of events and other aspects of an assessment may lead to risk dilution, and this is followed by two examples based on recent performance assessments. The final section discusses how potential problems can be identified in safety cases, and the types of response that a regulator might adopt as a result. (authors)

  11. High risk process control system assessment methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santos, Venetia [Pontificia Universidade Catolica do Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio), RJ (Brazil); Zamberlan, Maria Cristina [National Institute of Tehnology (INT), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Human Reliability and Ergonomics Research Group for the Oil, Gas and Energy Sector

    2009-07-01

    The evolution of ergonomics methodology has become necessary due to the dynamics imposed by the work environment, by the increase of the need of human cooperation and by the high interaction between various sections within a company. In the last 25 years, as of studies made in the high risk process control, we have developed a methodology to evaluate these situations that focus on the assessment of activities and human cooperation, the assessment of context, the assessment of the impact of work of other sectors in the final activity of the operator, as well as the modeling of existing risks. (author)

  12. A Tutorial on Probablilistic Risk Assessement and its Role in Risk-Informed Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews risk assessment and its role in risk-informed decision making. It includes information on probabilistic risk assessment, typical risk management process, origins of risk matrix, performance measures, performance objectives and Bayes theorem.

  13. Postural risk assessment of mechanised firewood processing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spinelli, Raffaele; Aminti, Giovanni; De Francesco, Fabio

    2017-03-01

    The study assessed the postural risk of mechanised firewood processing with eight machines, representing the main technology solutions available on the market. Assessment was conducted with the Ovako Working posture Analysis System (OWAS) on 1000 still frames randomly extracted from videotaped work samples. The postural risk associated with firewood processing was variable and associated with technology type. Simple, manually operated new machines incurred a higher postural risk compared with semi- or fully automatic machines. In contrast, new semi-automatic and automatic machines were generally free from postural risk. In all cases, attention should be paid to postural risk that may occur during blockage resolution. The study did not cover the postural risk of firewood processing sites as a whole. The study provided useful information for selecting firewood processing machinery and for improving firewood machinery design, as part of a more articulate strategy aimed at enhancing the safety of firewood processing work sites. Practitioner Summary: The postural risk associated with mechanised firewood processing (eg cutting and splitting) depends on the type of equipment. Postural risk is highest (OWAS Action Category 2) with new in-line machines, designed for operation by a single worker. Fully automatic machines present minimum postural risk, except during blockage resolution.

  14. US EPA's Ecological Risk Assessment Support Center ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    BackgroundThe ERASC provides technical information and addresses scientific questions of concern or interest on topics relevant to ecological risk assessment at hazardous waste sites for EPA's Office of Solid Waste and Emergency Response (OSWER) personnel and the Office of Resource Conservation and Recovery (ORCR) staff. Requests are channeled to ERASC through the Ecological Risk Assessment Forum (ERAF). To assess emerging and complex scientific issues that require expert judgment, the ERASC relies on the expertise of scientists and engineers located throughout EPA's Office of Research and Development (ORD) labs and centers.ResponseERASC develops responses that reflect the state of the science for ecological risk assessment and also provides a communication point for the distribution of the responses to other interested parties. For further information, contact Ecology_ERASC@epa.gov or call 513-569-7940.

  15. Quantitative Risk Assessment of Contact Sensitization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Api, Anne Marie; Belsito, Donald; Bickers, David

    2010-01-01

    Background: Contact hypersensitivity quantitative risk assessment (QRA) for fragrance ingredients is being used to establish new international standards for all fragrance ingredients that are potential skin sensitizers. Objective: The objective was to evaluate the retrospective clinical data...... as potential sensitizers. Methods: This article reviews clinical data for three fragrance ingredients cinnamic aldehyde, citral, and isoeugenol to assess the utility of the QRA approach for fragrance ingredients. Results: This assessment suggests that had the QRA approach been available at the time standards...

  16. Relation of ABO blood groups to the severity of coronary atherosclerosis: an Gensini score assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Ping; Luo, Song-Hui; Li, Xiao-Lin; Guo, Yuan-Lin; Zhu, Cheng-Gang; Xu, Rui-Xia; Li, Sha; Dong, Qian; Liu, Geng; Chen, Juan; Zeng, Rui-Xiang; Li, Jian-Jun

    2014-12-01

    Although the study on the relationship between ABO blood groups and coronary atherosclerosis has a long history, few data is available regarding ABO to severity of coronary atherosclerosis in a large cohort study. Therefore, the present study aimed to investigate the relation of the ABO blood groups to the severity of coronary atherosclerosis assessed by Gensini score (GS) in a large Chinese cohort undergoing coronary angiography. A total of 2919 consecutive patients undergoing coronary angiography were enrolled, and their baseline characteristics and ABO blood groups were collected. The GS was calculated as 1st tertile (0-10), 2nd tertile (11-36), 3rd tertile (>36) according to angiographic results. The relation of the ABO blood groups to GS was investigated. The frequency of blood group A was significantly higher in the upper GS tertiles (24.4% vs. 28.2% vs. 29.5%, p = 0.032). Multivariable linear regression analysis revealed that blood group A was independently associated with GS (β = 0.043, p = 0.017). Likewise, multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that group A remained significantly associated with mid-high GS (OR = 1.44, 95% CI 1.16-1.80, p = 0.001), and the group O was showed as a protective factor (OR = 0.77, 95% CI = 0.65-0.92, p = 0.004). In this large Chinese cohort study, the data indicated that there was an association between ABO blood groups and the severity of coronary atherosclerosis. Moreover, the blood group A was an independent risk factor for serious coronary atherosclerosis. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Chronobiometric assessment of autogenic training effects upon blood pressure and heart rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watanabe, Y; Halberg, F; Cornélissen, G; Saito, Y; Fukuda, K; Otsuka, K; Kikuchi, T

    1996-12-01

    Autogenic training, a method of self-hypnosis, lowers the extent of within-day variation of systolic blood pressure assessed by the circadian double amplitude. The blood pressure and heart rate of ten patients, conventionally diagnosed as having hypertension or white-coat hypertension, were automatically monitored at 30-min intervals for 7 days before autogenic training and again for 7 days, at 1 or 2 months after the start of autogenic training (practiced three times daily). The circadian double amplitude of systolic blood pressure of the patients investigated was 3 to 17 mm Hg lower on autogenic training. In 5 patients, reductions by 7 to 17 mm Hg were statistically significant. These results are regarded as provisional statistics, the utility of which depends on replication. By contrast, the over-all group reduction of the circadian double amplitude of systolic blood pressure by 8 mm Hg on the average can be taken at face value. Autogenic training also lowered the circadian double amplitude of diastolic blood pressure, but the effect was small as was the effect of autogenic training upon the MESOR (a rhythm adjusted mean) and acrophase (a measure of the timing of over-all high values recurring each day). The effect of autogenic training upon the circadian double amplitude of systolic blood pressure suggests its trial as first-line treatment of patients with an excessive circadian blood pressure amplitude, a condition which, even in the absence of an elevated 24-hr, average of blood pressure, is associated with a large increase in the risk of developing ischemic stroke or nephropathy.

  18. Seismic risk assessment of a BWR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wells, J.E.; Bernreuter, D.L.; Chen, J.C.; Lappa, D.A.; Chuang, T.Y.; Murray, R.C.; Johnson, J.J.

    1987-01-01

    The simplified seismic risk methodology developed in the USNRC Seismic Safety Margins Research Program (SSMRP) was demonstrated by its application to the Zion nuclear power plant (PWR). The simplified seismic risk methodology was developed to reduce the costs associated with a seismic risk analysis while providing adequate results. A detailed model of Zion, including systems analysis models (initiating events, event trees, and fault trees), SSI and structure models, and piping models, was developed and used in assessing the seismic risk of the Zion nuclear power plant (FSAR). The simplified seismic risk methodology was applied to the LaSalle County Station nuclear power plant, a BWR; to further demonstrate its applicability, and if possible, to provide a basis for comparing the seismic risk from PWRs and BWRs. (orig./HP)

  19. Blood pressure and kidney cancer risk: meta-analysis of prospective studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hidayat, Khemayanto; Du, Xuan; Zou, Sheng-Yi; Shi, Bi-Min

    2017-07-01

    Globally, kidney cancer is the twelfth most common cancer, accounting for 337 860 cases recorded in 2012. By 2020, this number has been estimated to reach 412 929 or increase by 22%. Over the past few decades, a number of prospective studies have investigated the association between blood pressure (BP) and risk of kidney cancer, using either recorded BP levels or reported hypertension as the principal exposure variable. However, the relation of BP to kidney cancer remains incompletely understood, and the data on sex-specific differences in risk estimates have been inconsistent. PubMed and Web of Science databases were searched for studies assessing the association between BP and kidney cancer through July 2016. The summary relative risk with 95% confidence intervals was calculated using a random-effects model. A total of 18 prospective studies with 8097 kidney cancer cases from 3 628 479 participants were included in our meta-analysis. History of hypertension was associated with 67% increased risk of kidney cancer. Significant heterogeneity and evidence of publication bias were observed. However, the results remain unchanged after introducing the trim and fill method to correct the publication bias. Accordingly, each 10-mmHg increase in SBP and DBP was associated with 10 and 22% increased risk of kidney cancer. Collectively, the present meta-analysis of 18 prospective studies provides further support for a positive association between hypertension and kidney cancer risk.

  20. Safety analysis, risk assessment, and risk acceptance criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jamali, K.

    1997-01-01

    This paper discusses a number of topics that relate safety analysis as documented in the Department of Energy (DOE) safety analysis reports (SARs), probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) as characterized primarily in the context of the techniques that have assumed some level of formality in commercial nuclear power plant applications, and risk acceptance criteria as an outgrowth of PRA applications. DOE SARs of interest are those that are prepared for DOE facilities under DOE Order 5480.23 and the implementing guidance in DOE STD-3009-94. It must be noted that the primary area of application for DOE STD-3009 is existing DOE facilities and that certain modifications of the STD-3009 approach are necessary in SARs for new facilities. Moreover, it is the hazard analysis (HA) and accident analysis (AA) portions of these SARs that are relevant to the present discussions. Although PRAs can be qualitative in nature, PRA as used in this paper refers more generally to all quantitative risk assessments and their underlying methods. HA as used in this paper refers more generally to all qualitative risk assessments and their underlying methods that have been in use in hazardous facilities other than nuclear power plants. This discussion includes both quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methods. PRA has been used, improved, developed, and refined since the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) was published in 1975 by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Much debate has ensued since WASH-1400 on exactly what the role of PRA should be in plant design, reactor licensing, 'ensuring' plant and process safety, and a large number of other decisions that must be made for potentially hazardous activities. Of particular interest in this area is whether the risks quantified using PRA should be compared with numerical risk acceptance criteria (RACs) to determine whether a facility is 'safe.' Use of RACs requires quantitative estimates of consequence frequency and magnitude

  1. Site remediation guided by risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McBean, E.A.; Gowing, A.; Pieczonka, G.

    2002-01-01

    'Full text:' Risk assessment (RA) provides an effective tool for identifying hazards with respect to human health and ecological receptors, hazards that arise from contaminants in the environment. Risk assessment relies upon: hazard identification/problem formulation; toxicity assessment; exposure assessment; and risk characterization. Hence, risk assessment provides an effective guide for site remediation through the identification of the associated risks arising from pre- and potential post-remediation activities. As a demonstration of this decision-making process, a site-specific risk assessment (SSRA) was performed on a chemical producing facility. Historical waste practices during the production of DDT compounds resulted in impacted site soils and sediment and soils of the creek passing through the facility. The purpose of the SSRA was to derive site-specific cleanup values for the impacted on-site soils, creek sediments, and embankment soils, incorporating human and ecological receptors associated with the environmental media. The human exposure pathways considered were dermal contact, incidental ingestion, and inhalation of the various soils. The potential human receptors were industrial workers, construction workers, trespassers, and off-site residents. Ingestion of fish from the creek by residents was also evaluated in the human health risk assessment (HHRA). Food web analyses were used to evaluate the impact of exposure to chemical compounds in aquatic sediments and related soils by ecological receptors such as the great blue heron, raccoon, and mink. The SSRA involved modelling the daily chemical intake by receptors and the transfer of chemicals to identified secondary media (e.g., ambient air or animal tissues) that are also potential exposure media. These models, while using the site-specific chemical data in the source media, possess uncertainties associated with default parameters that are only approximations and not site-specific (e.g., soil

  2. Improving antenatal risk assessment in women exposed to high risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, Natasha; Newman, Louise K; Hunter, Mick; Dunlop, Adrian

    2015-01-01

    Antenatal substance use and related psychosocial risk factors are known to increase the likelihood of child protection involvement; less is known about the predictive nature of maternal reflective functioning (RF) in this population. This preliminary study assessed psychosocial and psychological risk factors for a group of substance dependent women exposed to high risks in pregnancy, and their impact on child protection involvement. Pregnant women on opiate substitution treatment (n = 11) and a comparison group (n = 15) were recruited during their third trimester to complete measures of RF (Pregnancy Interview), childhood trauma, mental health and psychosocial assessments. At postnatal follow-up, RF was reassessed (Parent Development Interview - Revised Short Version) and mother-infant dyads were videotaped to assess emotional availability (EA). Child protection services were contacted to determine if any concerns had been raised for infant safety. Significant between-group differences were observed for demographics, psychosocial factors, trauma and mental health symptoms. Unexpectedly, no significant differences were found for RF or EA between groups. Eight women in the 'exposed to high risks' group became involved with child protection services. Reflective functioning was not significantly associated with psychosocial risk factors, and therefore did not mediate the outcome of child protection involvement. Women 'exposed to high risks' were equally able to generate a model of their own and their infants' mental states and should not be seen within a deficit perspective. Further research is required to better understand the range of risk factors that predict child protection involvement in high risk groups. © The Author(s) 2013.

  3. Risk Factors for Hepatitis C Virus Infection among Blood Donors in Georgia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zaller, Nickolas; Nelson, Kenrad E.; Aladashvili, Malvina; Badridze, Nino; Rio, Carlos del; Tsertsvadze, Tengiz

    2004-01-01

    Background: Growing awareness about the importance of blood safety for controlling the transmission of hepatitis C virus (HCV) has helped to decrease the spread of this virus in many settings. This study was conducted in order to evaluate potential risk factors for HCV infection among blood donors in Georgia. Methods: The study population consisted of 553 blood donors in three major Georgian cities; Tbilisi, the capital city and Batumi and Poti, naval port cities. Risk factors were examined using a behavior questionnaire. All blood samples were initially tested using 3rd generation anti-HCV enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays and confirmed using recombinant immunoblot assays and nucleic acid testing. Results: Forty-three blood donors, 7.8%, were confirmed HCV positive. Significant risk factors included: drug injection ever (OR: 42; 95% CI: 3.2-550.7); history of hepatitis (OR: 25.9; 95% CI: 4.6-145.5); history of a previous surgical procedure (OR: 148.4; 95% CI: 26.9-817.4); blood transfusion (OR: 25.9; 95% CI: 3.2-210.9). Conclusions: This study found a very high prevalence of HCV among blood donors in Georgia. The main risk factor for HCV infection in this population of blood donors was previous contact with contaminated blood or blood products. Reliable screening of donors and their blood is critical for controlling the further spread of HCV in Georgia

  4. A nutritional and metabolic assessment of a cardiopulmonary bypass technique without donor blood

    OpenAIRE

    東,良平

    1993-01-01

    A nutritional and metabolic assessment of a cardiopulmonary bypass technique without donor blood was made in 23 patients undergoing open heart surgery (non-donor blood group). For comparison, 14 patients receiving cardiopulmonary bypass with donor blood prime (donor blood group) were also evaluated. 1)Serum transferrin level showed significantly more rapid recovery in the non-donor blood group compared to the donor blood group on the 7th post operative day. 2)Total protein, serum albumin, arm...

  5. Risks in hospitals. Assessment and Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bradea Ioana-Alexandra

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In a complex world, characterized by a multitude of risks, managers need to manage the risks they encounter, in an efficient way and in the shortest time possible. In the current economic crisis, the concept of hospital risk management, as the process in which is identified, analyzed, reduced, or avoided a risk that may affect the hospital, gained great importance. The Romanian health system, distinguished by: lack of transparency, poor funding, the loss of the valuable medical staff, lack of hospitals in villages and small towns, inability to engage patients due to the old and poor equipment, lack of research and problems in information privacy and cyber-security, requires an appropriate management, enabling risk managers to take decisions in order to avoid the occurrence of risks. Important for the functioning of every hospital is the perception of patients and their degree of satisfaction, regarding the quality of services, which depend largely on the quality of human resources. But what are the human resources weaknesses and risks from the patient point of view? What are the risk indicators which must be monitored to avoid risks? And also, which is the most useful method for measurement and assessment of risk?

  6. Update earthquake risk assessment in Cairo, Egypt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badawy, Ahmed; Korrat, Ibrahim; El-Hadidy, Mahmoud; Gaber, Hanan

    2017-07-01

    The Cairo earthquake (12 October 1992; m b = 5.8) is still and after 25 years one of the most painful events and is dug into the Egyptians memory. This is not due to the strength of the earthquake but due to the accompanied losses and damages (561 dead; 10,000 injured and 3000 families lost their homes). Nowadays, the most frequent and important question that should rise is "what if this earthquake is repeated today." In this study, we simulate the same size earthquake (12 October 1992) ground motion shaking and the consequent social-economic impacts in terms of losses and damages. Seismic hazard, earthquake catalogs, soil types, demographics, and building inventories were integrated into HAZUS-MH to produce a sound earthquake risk assessment for Cairo including economic and social losses. Generally, the earthquake risk assessment clearly indicates that "the losses and damages may be increased twice or three times" in Cairo compared to the 1992 earthquake. The earthquake risk profile reveals that five districts (Al-Sahel, El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr sharq) lie in high seismic risks, and three districts (Manshiyat Naser, El-Waily, and Wassat (center)) are in low seismic risk level. Moreover, the building damage estimations reflect that Gharb is the highest vulnerable district. The analysis shows that the Cairo urban area faces high risk. Deteriorating buildings and infrastructure make the city particularly vulnerable to earthquake risks. For instance, more than 90 % of the estimated buildings damages are concentrated within the most densely populated (El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr Gharb) districts. Moreover, about 75 % of casualties are in the same districts. Actually, an earthquake risk assessment for Cairo represents a crucial application of the HAZUS earthquake loss estimation model for risk management. Finally, for mitigation, risk reduction, and to improve the seismic performance of structures and assure life safety

  7. Common breast cancer risk alleles and risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Näslund-Koch, C; Nordestgaard, B G; Bojesen, S E

    2017-01-01

    general population were followed in Danish health registries for up to 21 years after blood sampling. After genotyping 72 breast cancer risk loci, each with 0-2 alleles, the sum for each individual was calculated. We used the simple allele sum instead of the conventional polygenic risk score......, as it is likely more sensitive in detecting associations with risks of other endpoints than breast cancer. RESULTS: Breast cancer incidence in the 19,010 women was increased across allele sum quintiles (log-rank trend test; p=1*10(-12)), but not incidence of other cancers (p=0.41). Age- and study-adjusted hazard...... ratio for the 5(th) vs. 1(st) allele sum quintile was 1.82(95% confidence interval;1.53-2.18). Corresponding hazard ratios per allele were 1.04(1.03-1.05) and 1.05(1.02-1.08) for breast cancer incidence and mortality, similar across risk factors. In 50-year old women, the starting age for screening...

  8. OPPT workplan risk assessment for Trichloroethylene ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    The assessment will focus on uses of TCE as a degreaser and in consumer products used by individuals in the arts/crafts field. Given the range of endpoints (cancer, non-cancer; the latter includes potential effects on the developing fetus), it is expected that susceptible populations would be children (as bystanders physically near the actual consumer use of the products) and adults of all ages (including pregnant women). Thus, the assessment will focus on all human/lifestages. EPA anticipates issuing draft risk assessments for public review and comment as they are completed. At the conclusion of the review process, if an assessment of specific uses indicates significant risk, EPA will evaluate and pursue appropriate risk reduction actions, as warranted. If an assessment indicates no significant risk, EPA will conclude its current work on assessment of those specified targeted uses of that chemical. Over time, additional chemicals will be added to the work plan as more data are developed and more chemicals screened.

  9. A methodology for reviewing probabilistic risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Derby, S.L.

    1983-01-01

    The starting point for peer review of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a clear understanding of how the risk estimate was prepared and of what contributions dominate the calculation. The problem facing the reviewers is how to cut through the complex details of a PRA to gain this understanding. This paper presents a structured, analytical procedure that solves this problem. The effectiveness of this solution is demonstrated by an application on the Zion Probabilistic Safety Study. The procedure found the three dominant initiating events and provided a simplified reconstruction of the calculation of the risk estimate. Significant assessments of uncertainty were also identified. If peer review disputes the accuracy of these judgments, then the revised risk estimate could significantly increase

  10. Estimation, assessment and management of risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reinoehl-Kompa, S.

    2005-01-01

    After the introductory lectures the closed conference divided into sessions on the estimation, assessment and management of risks. This review article summarises some of the central issues which were addressed in the discussions held during the closed conference and which may be of significance for the future work of the ''Radiation Risk'' Committee within the Radiation Protection Commission. Fundamental difficulties still persist in the implementation of risk quantities within the concepts of radiation protection (lectures by Breckow and Kiefer). Some of these difficulties have to do with the definition of dose quantities, in particular with the one most central to radiation protection, the effective dose. In the field of sparsely ionizing radiation attention was focused on two main topics, namely the risk of acquiring thyroid cancer in association with the Chernobyl desaster and analyses of new mortality data on the survivors of the nuclear bomb attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. In the area of lung cancer risk from radon exposure, attention was focused on indoor exposure and the cohort study on bismuth miners. The body of knowledge that has accumulated on the risk of acquiring cancer through UV radiation takes a special position within the wider field of risks associated with nonionizing radiation, since much has already been achieved towards identifying the action mechanisms involved here. Since skin cancer shows the highest increments in incidence of all types of cancer, estimating the risk of acquiring skin cancer through UV radiation will be an important issue in future. One of the tasks of risk management is to translate the results of risk assessment into action. One task of particular importance in this regard is ''risk communication'', the problems surrounding which were illuminated from different perspectives in various contributions

  11. Risk Assessment Approaches for Carcinogenic Food Contaminants

    OpenAIRE

    Gillespie, Zoe; Pulido, Olga; Vavasour, Elizabeth

    2011-01-01

    Health Canada has identified the need for a standardized department-wide approach for the risk assessment of carcinogens in foods (e.g., pesticides, food chemical contaminants, veterinary therapeutics). A standardized approach would better facilitate and inform risk management strategies for the control of human exposure to food sources of carcinogens. Within the post- market regulatory context, directly DNA-reactive carcinogens are of most concern because any exposure is theoretically assume...

  12. Superfund risk assessment in soil contamination studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoddinott, K.B.

    1992-01-01

    This symposium was held in New Orleans, Louisiana on January 30-31, 1991. The purpose of the meeting was to provide a forum for exchange of information on risk assessment associated with soil contamination. The conference included presentations in the following categories: site characterization; fate and transport; toxicity, exposures, and receptors; risk characterization/case studies; and establishing cleanup levels. Individual papers have been cataloged separately for inclusion in the appropriate data bases

  13. A total risk assessment methodology for security assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Auilar, Richard; Pless, Daniel J.; Kaplan, Paul Garry; Silva, Consuelo Juanita; Rhea, Ronald Edward; Wyss, Gregory Dane; Conrad, Stephen Hamilton

    2009-01-01

    Sandia National Laboratories performed a two-year Laboratory Directed Research and Development project to develop a new collaborative risk assessment method to enable decision makers to fully consider the interrelationships between threat, vulnerability, and consequence. A five-step Total Risk Assessment Methodology was developed to enable interdisciplinary collaborative risk assessment by experts from these disciplines. The objective of this process is promote effective risk management by enabling analysts to identify scenarios that are simultaneously achievable by an adversary, desirable to the adversary, and of concern to the system owner or to society. The basic steps are risk identification, collaborative scenario refinement and evaluation, scenario cohort identification and risk ranking, threat chain mitigation analysis, and residual risk assessment. The method is highly iterative, especially with regard to scenario refinement and evaluation. The Total Risk Assessment Methodology includes objective consideration of relative attack likelihood instead of subjective expert judgment. The 'probability of attack' is not computed, but the relative likelihood for each scenario is assessed through identifying and analyzing scenario cohort groups, which are groups of scenarios with comparable qualities to the scenario being analyzed at both this and other targets. Scenarios for the target under consideration and other targets are placed into cohort groups under an established ranking process that reflects the following three factors: known targeting, achievable consequences, and the resources required for an adversary to have a high likelihood of success. The development of these target cohort groups implements, mathematically, the idea that adversaries are actively choosing among possible attack scenarios and avoiding scenarios that would be significantly suboptimal to their objectives. An adversary who can choose among only a few comparable targets and scenarios (a

  14. The Risk Assessment at the Workplace of Assembly Operation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marek Burda

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Risk Assessment Process by FMEA method involve hazard identification, risk assessment and risk control processes and their input is fundamental to a successful EH&S system. This Risk assessment tool follows the general process and requirements of the Health and Safety Risk Assessment Procedure.

  15. [Patient safety in antibiotics administration: Risk assessment].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maqueda Palau, M; Pérez Juan, E

    To determine the level of risk in the preparation and administration of antibiotics frequently used in the Intensive Care Unit using a risk matrix. A study was conducted using situation analysis and literature review of databases, protocols and good practice guidelines on intravenous therapy, drugs, and their administration routes. The most used antibiotics in the ICU registered in the ENVIN-HELICS program from 1 April to 30 June 2015 were selected. In this period, 257 patients received antimicrobial treatment and 26 antibiotics were evaluated. Variables studied: A risk assessment of each antibiotic using the scale Risk Assessment Tool, of the National Patient Safety Agency, as well as pH, osmolarity, type of catheter recommended for administration, and compatibility and incompatibility with other antibiotics studied. Almost two-thirds (65.3%) of antibiotics had more than 3 risk factors (represented by a yellow stripe), with the remaining 34.7% of antibiotics having between 0 and 2 risk factors (represented by a green stripe). There were no antibiotics with 6 or more risk factors (represented by a red stripe). Most drugs needed reconstitution, additional dilution, and the use of part of the vial to administer the prescribed dose. More than half of the antibiotics studied had a moderate risk level; thus measures should be adopted in order to reduce it. The risk matrix is a useful tool for the assessment and detection of weaknesses associated with the preparation and administration of intravenous antibiotics. Copyright © 2016 SECA. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  16. Demographic, risk factors and motivations among blood donors with reactive serologic tests for syphilis in São Paulo, Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferreira, S C; de Almeida-Neto, C; Nishiya, A S; Oliveira, C D L; Ferreira, J E; Alencar, C S; Levi, J E; Salles, N A; Mendrone, A; Sabino, E C

    2014-06-01

    To identify the demographic characteristics, risk factors and motivations for donating among blood donors with reactive serologic tests for syphilis. Post-donation interviews with syphilis seropositive blood donors improve recruitment and screening strategies. This case-control study compares 75 Venereal Disease Research Laboratory (VDRL) > 8, EIA+ (enzyme immunoassay) and FTA-ABS+ (fluorescent treponemal antibody); 80 VDRL-, EIA+ and FTA-ABS+; and 34 VDRL- and EIA- donors between 2004 and 2009. Donors were assessed by their demographic characteristics, sexual behaviour, history of alcohol and illicit drugs use, and motivations to donate. Donors with VDRL > 8 were more likely to be divorced [AOR = 12·53; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1·30-120·81], to have had more than six sexual partners (AOR=7·1; 95% CI 1·12-44·62) and to report male-male-sex in the past 12 months (AOR=8·18; 95% CI 1·78-37·60). Donors with VDRL-, EIA+ and FTA-ABS+ were less likely to be female (AOR=0·26; 95% CI 0·07-0·96), more likely to be older (AOR=10·2; 95% CI 2·45-42·58 ≥ 39 and illicit drugs use; 30·7% (VDRL > 8) and 12·5% (VDRL-, EIA+ and FTA-ABS+) of donors reported that they had been at risk for HIV infection (P = 0·004). One-third of donors came to the blood bank to help a friend or a relative who needed blood. Although donors exposed to syphilis reported and recognised some high risk behaviour, most were motivated by direct appeal to donate blood. Monitoring the risk profile of blood donors can benefit public health and improve blood safety. © 2014 The Authors. Transfusion Medicine © 2014 British Blood Transfusion Society.

  17. Clinical assessment of the accuracy of blood glucose measurement devices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfützner, Andreas; Mitri, Michael; Musholt, Petra B; Sachsenheimer, Daniela; Borchert, Marcus; Yap, Andrew; Forst, Thomas

    2012-04-01

    Blood glucose meters for patient self-measurement need to comply with the accuracy standards of the ISO 15197 guideline. We investigated the accuracy of the two new blood glucose meters BG*Star and iBG*Star (Sanofi-Aventis) in comparison to four other competitive devices (Accu-Chek Aviva, Roche Diagnostics; FreeStyle Freedom Lite, Abbott Medisense; Contour, Bayer; OneTouch Ultra 2, Lifescan) at different blood glucose ranges in a clinical setting with healthy subjects and patients with type 1 and type 2 diabetes. BGStar and iBGStar are employ dynamic electrochemistry, which is supposed to result in highly accurate results. The study was performed on 106 participants (53 female, 53 male, age (mean ± SD): 46 ± 16 years, type 1: 32 patients, type 2: 34 patients, and 40 healthy subjects). Two devices from each type and strips from two different production lots were used for glucose assessment (∼200 readings/meter). Spontaneous glucose assessments and glucose or insulin interventions under medical supervision were applied to perform measurements in the different glucose ranges in accordance with the ISO 15197 requirements. Sample values 400 mg/dL were prepared by laboratory manipulations. The YSI glucose analyzer (glucose oxidase method) served as the standard reference method which may be considered to be a limitation in light of glucose hexokinase-based meters. For all devices, there was a very close correlation between the glucose results compared to the YSI reference method results. The correlation coefficients were r = 0.995 for BGStar and r = 0.992 for iBGStar (Aviva: 0.995, Freedom Lite: 0.990, Contour: 0.993, Ultra 2: 0.990). Error-grid analysis according to Parkes and Clarke revealed both 100% of the readings to be within the clinically acceptable areas (Clarke: A + B with BG*Star (100 + 0), Aviva (97 + 3), and Contour (97 + 3); and 99.5% with iBG*Star (97.5 + 2), Freedom Lite (98 + 1.5), and Ultra 2 (97.5 + 2

  18. Risk assessment techniques for civil aviation security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tamasi, Galileo, E-mail: g.tamasi@enac.rupa.i [Ente Nazionale per l' Aviazione Civile-Direzione Progetti, Studi e Ricerche, Via di Villa Ricotti, 42, 00161 Roma (Italy); Demichela, Micaela, E-mail: micaela.demichela@polito.i [SAfeR-Centro Studi su Sicurezza, Affidabilita e Rischi, Dipartimento di Scienza dei Materiali e Ingegneria Chimica, Politecnico di Torino, Corso Duca degli Abruzzi, 24, 10129 Torino (Italy)

    2011-08-15

    Following the 9/11 terrorists attacks in New York a strong economical effort was made to improve and adapt aviation security, both in infrastructures as in airplanes. National and international guidelines were promptly developed with the objective of creating a security management system able to supervise the identification of risks and the definition and optimization of control measures. Risk assessment techniques are thus crucial in the above process, since an incorrect risk identification and quantification can strongly affect both the security level as the investments needed to reach it. The paper proposes a set of methodologies to qualitatively and quantitatively assess the risk in the security of civil aviation and the risk assessment process based on the threats, criticality and vulnerabilities concepts, highlighting their correlation in determining the level of risk. RAMS techniques are applied to the airport security system in order to analyze the protection equipment for critical facilities located in air-side, allowing also the estimation of the importance of the security improving measures vs. their effectiveness.

  19. Risk assessment techniques for civil aviation security

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tamasi, Galileo; Demichela, Micaela

    2011-01-01

    Following the 9/11 terrorists attacks in New York a strong economical effort was made to improve and adapt aviation security, both in infrastructures as in airplanes. National and international guidelines were promptly developed with the objective of creating a security management system able to supervise the identification of risks and the definition and optimization of control measures. Risk assessment techniques are thus crucial in the above process, since an incorrect risk identification and quantification can strongly affect both the security level as the investments needed to reach it. The paper proposes a set of methodologies to qualitatively and quantitatively assess the risk in the security of civil aviation and the risk assessment process based on the threats, criticality and vulnerabilities concepts, highlighting their correlation in determining the level of risk. RAMS techniques are applied to the airport security system in order to analyze the protection equipment for critical facilities located in air-side, allowing also the estimation of the importance of the security improving measures vs. their effectiveness.

  20. Blood transfusion after percutaneous coronary intervention and risk of subsequent adverse outcomes: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwok, Chun Shing; Sherwood, Matthew W; Watson, Sarah M; Nasir, Samina B; Sperrin, Matt; Nolan, Jim; Kinnaird, Tim; Kiatchoosakun, Songsak; Ludman, Peter F; de Belder, Mark A; Rao, Sunil V; Mamas, Mamas A

    2015-03-01

    This study sought to define the prevalence and prognostic impact of blood transfusions in contemporary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) practice. Although the presence of anemia is associated with adverse outcomes in patients undergoing PCI, the optimal use of blood products in patients undergoing PCI remains controversial. A search of EMBASE and MEDLINE was conducted to identify PCI studies that evaluated blood transfusions and their association with major adverse cardiac events (MACE) and mortality. Two independent reviewers screened the studies for inclusion, and data were extracted from relevant studies. Random effects meta-analysis was used to estimate the risk of adverse outcomes with blood transfusions. Statistical heterogeneity was assessed by considering the I(2) statistic. Nineteen studies that included 2,258,711 patients with more than 54,000 transfusion events were identified (prevalence of blood transfusion 2.3%). Crude mortality rate was 6,435 of 50,979 (12.6%, 8 studies) in patients who received a blood transfusion and 27,061 of 2,266,111 (1.2%, 8 studies) in the remaining patients. Crude MACE rates were 17.4% (8,439 of 48,518) in patients who had a blood transfusion and 3.1% (68,062 of 2,212,730) in the remaining cohort. Meta-analysis demonstrated that blood transfusion was independently associated with an increase in mortality (odds ratio: 3.02, 95% confidence interval: 2.16 to 4.21, I(2) = 91%) and MACE (odds ratio: 3.15, 95% confidence interval: 2.59 to 3.82, I(2) = 81%). Similar observations were recorded in studies that adjusted for baseline hematocrit, anemia, and bleeding. Blood transfusion is independently associated with increased risk of mortality and MACE events. Clinicians should minimize the risk for periprocedural transfusion by using available bleeding-avoidance strategies and avoiding liberal transfusion practices. Copyright © 2015 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Korean risk assessment model for breast cancer risk prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Boyoung; Ma, Seung Hyun; Shin, Aesun; Chang, Myung-Chul; Choi, Ji-Yeob; Kim, Sungwan; Han, Wonshik; Noh, Dong-Young; Ahn, Sei-Hyun; Kang, Daehee; Yoo, Keun-Young; Park, Sue K

    2013-01-01

    We evaluated the performance of the Gail model for a Korean population and developed a Korean breast cancer risk assessment tool (KoBCRAT) based upon equations developed for the Gail model for predicting breast cancer risk. Using 3,789 sets of cases and controls, risk factors for breast cancer among Koreans were identified. Individual probabilities were projected using Gail's equations and Korean hazard data. We compared the 5-year and lifetime risk produced using the modified Gail model which applied Korean incidence and mortality data and the parameter estimators from the original Gail model with those produced using the KoBCRAT. We validated the KoBCRAT based on the expected/observed breast cancer incidence and area under the curve (AUC) using two Korean cohorts: the Korean Multicenter Cancer Cohort (KMCC) and National Cancer Center (NCC) cohort. The major risk factors under the age of 50 were family history, age at menarche, age at first full-term pregnancy, menopausal status, breastfeeding duration, oral contraceptive usage, and exercise, while those at and over the age of 50 were family history, age at menarche, age at menopause, pregnancy experience, body mass index, oral contraceptive usage, and exercise. The modified Gail model produced lower 5-year risk for the cases than for the controls (p = 0.017), while the KoBCRAT produced higher 5-year and lifetime risk for the cases than for the controls (pKorean women, especially urban women.

  2. Assessment of health risks of policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ádám, Balázs; Molnár, Ágnes; Ádány, Róza; Bianchi, Fabrizio; Bitenc, Katarina; Chereches, Razvan; Cori, Liliana; Fehr, Rainer; Kobza, Joanna; Kollarova, Jana

    2014-01-01

    The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidance and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals

  3. Assessment of health risks of policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ádám, Balázs, E-mail: badam@cmss.sdu.dk [Unit for Health Promotion Research, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Southern Denmark, Niels Bohrs Vej 9, DK-6700 Esbjerg (Denmark); Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Molnár, Ágnes, E-mail: MolnarAg@smh.ca [Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Centre for Research on Inner City Health, Keenan Research Centre, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St Michael' s Hospital, Victoria 209, Rm. 3-26.22, M5B 1C6 Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Ádány, Róza, E-mail: adany.roza@sph.unideb.hu [Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Bianchi, Fabrizio, E-mail: Fabriepi@ifc.cnr.it [Unit of Environmental Epidemiology, Institute of Clinical Physiology, National Council of Research, Moruzzi 1, 56124 Pisa (Italy); Bitenc, Katarina, E-mail: katarina.bitenc@ivz-rs.si [National Institute of Public Health, Trubarjeva 2, SI-1000 Ljubljana (Slovenia); Chereches, Razvan, E-mail: razvan.m.chereches@gmail.com [Faculty of Political, Administrative and Communication Sciences, Babes-Bolyai University, Strada Mihail Kogalniceanu 1, 3400 Cluj (Romania); Cori, Liliana, E-mail: liliana.cori@ifc.cnr.it [Unit of Environmental Epidemiology, Institute of Clinical Physiology, National Council of Research, Moruzzi 1, 56124 Pisa (Italy); Fehr, Rainer, E-mail: rainer.fehr@uni-bielefeld.de [NRW Centre for Health, Westerfeldstr. 35-37, 33611 Bielefeld (Germany); Kobza, Joanna, E-mail: koga1@poczta.onet.pl [Public Health Department, Silesian Medical University, 18 Medykow Street, 40-752 Katowice (Poland); Kollarova, Jana, E-mail: janakollarova@yahoo.com [Department of Health Promotion, Regional Public Health Authority, Ipelska 1, 04011 Kosice (Slovakia); and others

    2014-09-15

    The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidance and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals.

  4. Risks assessment and comparison: Interest and feasibility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coulon, Rene

    1989-01-01

    Comparative risk assessment and risk management have become a real discipline, requiring a scientific approach. This is due to the increasing need to take account of risks in the decision processes together with other economic, social or political considerations. Although the notion of risk is generally associated with emergency situations, it seems necessary to pay more attention to those situations which are considered as normal situations but could be responsible for a significant part of the observed health effects. In this context, a research programme entitled Programme Grand Delta has been developed at a regional level: its aim is to provide a clear and simple representation of the risks to which the population living in this area is exposed. (author)

  5. Caries risk assessment in young adults

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersson, Gunnel Hänsel; Twetman, Svante

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: To validate baseline caries risk classifications according to the Cariogram model with the actual caries development over a 3-year period in a group of young adults living in Sweden. METHODS: The study group consisted of 1,295 19-year-old patients that completed a comprehensive clinical...... baseline examination, including radiographs and salivary tests. An individual caries risk profile was computed and the patient was placed in one of five risk categories. After 3 years, 982 patients (75.8%) were re-examined and caries increment for each patient was calculated. The outcome was expressed...... as sensitivity, specificity and predictive values and compared with a risk assessment scheme used in Public Dental Service. RESULTS: The drop-outs displayed more risk factors and a significantly higher caries burden at baseline compared with those that remained in the project (p 

  6. Environmental health risk assessment: Energy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krewski, D.; Somers, E.; Winthrop, S.O.

    1984-01-01

    Most industrialized nations have come to rely on a variety of systems for energy production, both of a conventional and non-conventional nature. In the paper, the spectrum of energy systems currently in use in Canada is outlined along with their potential health risks. Several examples of environmental health studies involving both outdoor and indoor air pollution related to energy production in Canada are reported. The limitations of current technologies for assessing health risks are discussed and possible approaches to managing energy related health risks are indicated. (author)

  7. Risk assessment techniques for industrial installations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Croitoru, C.; Dumitrescu, M.; Preda, I.; Stefanescu, I.; Titescu, G.

    1995-01-01

    This paper presents a risk analysis which concerns the following stages: identification of the initiation events, evaluation of the occurrence frequency of different accident sequences, assessment of human, economical, and environmental consequences, risk assessment and management. The study of the accident sequences subsequent to an initiation event was achieved by the event tree method. Also, there were developed methods based on mathematical models of installations which take into account reliability data, data concerning the exploitation history, and data referring to the human factor effects in the installation operation. These methods were used for the determination of occurrence frequencies of hydrogen sulfide emission accidents in the heavy water production installations

  8. Documentation design for probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parkinson, W.J.; von Herrmann, J.L.

    1985-01-01

    This paper describes a framework for documentation design of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and is based on the EPRI document NP-3470 ''Documentation Design for Probabilistic Risk Assessment''. The goals for PRA documentation are stated. Four audiences are identified which PRA documentation must satisfy, and the documentation consistent with the needs of the various audiences are discussed, i.e., the Summary Report, the Executive Summary, the Main Report, and Appendices. The authors recommend the documentation specifications discussed herein as guides rather than rigid definitions

  9. Risk of cancer after blood transfusion from donors with subclinical cancer: a retrospective cohort study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Edgren, Gustaf; Hjalgrim, Henrik; Reilly, Marie

    2007-01-01

    transmission from blood donors to recipients through blood transfusion. METHODS: We did a register-based retrospective cohort study of cancer incidence among patients who received blood from donors deemed to have a subclinical cancer at the time of donation. These precancerous donors were diagnosed......, and essentially complete, population and health-care registers. The risk of cancer in exposed recipients relative to that in recipients who received blood from non-cancerous donors was estimated with multivariate Poisson regression, adjusting for potential confounding factors. FINDINGS: Of the 354 094 transfusion...... recipients eligible for this analysis, 12,012 (3%) were exposed to blood products from precancerous donors. There was no excess risk of cancer overall (adjusted relative risk 1.00, 95% CI 0.94-1.07) or in crude anatomical subsites among recipients of blood from precancerous donors compared with recipients...

  10. Blood Clotting and Pregnancy

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... inside the placenta, cutting off blood flow and harming your baby. Jump To: Am I at Risk? ... Blood Advances The Hematologist ASH Clinical News ASH Self-Assessment Program Hematology , ASH Education Program About Awards ...

  11. New method for assessing risks of email

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raja, Seyyed H.; Afrooz, Farzad

    2013-03-01

    E-mail technology, has become one of the requirements of human lives for correspondence between individuals. Given this, the important point is that the messages, server and client of e-mail and correspondences that exchanged between different people have acceptable security, to make people sure to use of this technology. In the information age, many of financial and non financial transactions are done electronically, data exchange takes place via the internet and theft and manipulation of data can make exorbitant cost in terms of integrity, financial, political, economic and culture. E-mail correspondence in there is same and it is very important. With review took place, a method that will focus on email system for risks assessment is not provided. We are examining ways of assessing for other systems and their strengths and weaknesses, then we use Mr Convery method for assessing email risks which it is for assessing network risks. At the end of paper we have offered special table for email risk assessment.

  12. Spectroscopic microvascular blood detection from the endoscopically normal colonic mucosa: biomarker for neoplasia risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Hemant K; Gomes, Andrew; Turzhitsky, Vladimir; Goldberg, Michael J; Rogers, Jeremy; Ruderman, Sarah; Young, Kim L; Kromine, Alex; Brand, Randall E; Jameel, Mohammed; Vakil, Parmede; Hasabou, Nahla; Backman, Vadim

    2008-10-01

    We previously used a novel biomedical optics technology, 4-dimensional elastically scattered light fingerprinting, to show that in experimental colon carcinogenesis the predysplastic epithelial microvascular blood content is increased markedly. To assess the potential clinical translatability of this putative field effect marker, we characterized the early increase in blood supply (EIBS) in human beings in vivo. We developed a novel, endoscopically compatible, polarization-gated, spectroscopic probe that was capable of measuring oxygenated and deoxygenated (Dhb) hemoglobin specifically in the mucosal microcirculation through polarization gating. Microvascular blood content was measured in 222 patients from the endoscopically normal cecum, midtransverse colon, and rectum. If a polyp was present, readings were taken from the polyp tissue along with the normal mucosa 10-cm and 30-cm proximal and distal to the lesion. Tissue phantom studies showed that the probe had outstanding accuracy for hemoglobin determination (r(2) = 0.99). Augmentation of microvasculature blood content was most pronounced within the most superficial ( approximately 100 microm) layer and dissipated in deeper layers (ie, submucosa). EIBS was detectable within 30 cm from the lesion and the magnitude mirrored adenoma proximity. This occurred for both oxygenated hemoglobin and DHb, with the effect size being slightly greater for DHb. EIBS correlated with adenoma size and was not engendered by nonneoplastic (hyperplastic) polyps. We show, herein, that in vivo microvascular blood content can be measured and provides an accurate marker of field carcinogenesis. This technological/biological advance has numerous potential applications in colorectal cancer screening such as improved polyp detection and risk stratification.

  13. Mixtures and their risk assessment in toxicology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mumtaz, Moiz M; Hansen, Hugh; Pohl, Hana R

    2011-01-01

    For communities generally and for persons living in the vicinity of waste sites specifically, potential exposures to chemical mixtures are genuine concerns. Such concerns often arise from perceptions of a site's higher than anticipated toxicity due to synergistic interactions among chemicals. This chapter outlines some historical approaches to mixtures risk assessment. It also outlines ATSDR's current approach to toxicity risk assessment. The ATSDR's joint toxicity assessment guidance for chemical mixtures addresses interactions among components of chemical mixtures. The guidance recommends a series of steps that include simple calculations for a systematic analysis of data leading to conclusions regarding any hazards chemical mixtures might pose. These conclusions can, in turn, lead to recommendations such as targeted research to fill data gaps, development of new methods using current science, and health education to raise awareness of residents and health care providers. The chapter also provides examples of future trends in chemical mixtures assessment.

  14. Microbiological risk assessment for personal care products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, S E; Parker, M D; Amézquita, A; Pitt, T L

    2016-12-01

    Regulatory decisions regarding microbiological safety of cosmetics and personal care products are primarily hazard-based, where the presence of a potential pathogen determines decision-making. This contrasts with the Food industry where it is a commonplace to use a risk-based approach for ensuring microbiological safety. A risk-based approach allows consideration of the degree of exposure to assess unacceptable health risks. As there can be a number of advantages in using a risk-based approach to safety, this study explores the Codex Alimentarius (Codex) four-step Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) framework frequently used in the Food industry and examines how it can be applied to the safety assessment of personal care products. The hazard identification and hazard characterization steps (one and two) of the Codex MRA framework consider the main microorganisms of concern. These are addressed by reviewing the current industry guidelines for objectionable organisms and analysing reports of contaminated products notified by government agencies over a recent 5-year period, together with examples of reported outbreaks. Data related to estimation of exposure (step three) are discussed, and examples of possible calculations and references are included. The fourth step, performed by the risk assessor (risk characterization), is specific to each assessment and brings together the information from the first three steps to assess the risk. Although there are very few documented uses of the MRA approach for personal care products, this study illustrates that it is a practicable and sound approach for producing products that are safe by design. It can be helpful in the context of designing products and processes going to market and with setting of microbiological specifications. Additionally, it can be applied reactively to facilitate decision-making when contaminated products are released on to the marketplace. Currently, the knowledge available may only allow a

  15. Assessment of cardiometabolic risk among shift workers in Hungary

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jermendy György

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Aim Shift workers may be at risk of different diseases. In order to assess cardiometabolic risk in shift workers, a cross-sectional study was performed among active workers. Methods A total of 481 workers (121 men, 360 women were investigated; most of them were employees in light industry (58.2% or in public services (23.9%. Past medical history was recorded and physical examination was performed. Questionnaires were used to characterize daily activity. Fasting venous blood sample was collected for measuring laboratory parameters. Data from shift workers (n = 234, age: 43.9 ± 8.1 years were compared to those of daytime workers (n = 247, age: 42.8 ± 8.5 years, men and women were analyzed separately. Results In men, systolic blood pressure was higher in shift workers compared to daytime workers (133 ± 8 vs 126 ± 17 mmHg; p vs 67.7 ± 13.2 kg; p vs 13.4%; p vs 21.7%; p vs 1.68 ± 0.36 mmol/l; p Conclusion Middle-aged active shift workers, especially women, have a less healthy lifestyle and are at higher cardiometabolic risk as compared to daytime workers. Our study highlights the importance of measures for identifying and preventing cardiometabolic risk factors in shift workers.

  16. Health effects of risk-assessment categories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kramer, C.F.; Rybicka, K.; Knutson, A.; Morris, S.C.

    1983-10-01

    Environmental and occupational health effects associated with exposures to various chemicals are a subject of increasing concern. One recently developed methodology for assessing the health impacts of various chemical compounds involves the classification of similar chemicals into risk-assessment categories (RACs). This report reviews documented human health effects for a broad range of pollutants, classified by RACs. It complements other studies that have estimated human health effects by RAC based on analysis and extrapolation of data from animal research

  17. Health effects of risk-assessment categories

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kramer, C.F.; Rybicka, K.; Knutson, A.; Morris, S.C.

    1983-10-01

    Environmental and occupational health effects associated with exposures to various chemicals are a subject of increasing concern. One recently developed methodology for assessing the health impacts of various chemical compounds involves the classification of similar chemicals into risk-assessment categories (RACs). This report reviews documented human health effects for a broad range of pollutants, classified by RACs. It complements other studies that have estimated human health effects by RAC based on analysis and extrapolation of data from animal research.

  18. Can we (actually) assess global risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano

    2013-04-01

    The evaluation of the dynamic interactions of the different components of global risk (e.g. hazard, exposure, vulnerability or resilience) is one of the main challenges in risk assessment and management. In state-of-the-art approaches for the analysis of risk, natural and socio-economic systems are typically treated separately by using different methods. In flood risk studies, for instance, physical scientists typically focus on the study of the probability of flooding (i.e. hazard), while social scientists mainly examine the exposure, vulnerability or resilience to flooding. However, these different components are deeply interconnected. Changes in flood hazard might trigger changes in vulnerability, and vice versa. A typical example of these interactions is the so-called "levee effect", whereby heightening levees to reduce the probability of flooding often leads to increase the potential adverse consequences of flooding as people often perceive that flood risk was completely eliminated once the levee was raised. These interconnections between the different components of risk remain largely unexplored and poorly understood. This lack of knowledge is of serious concern as it limits our ability to plan appropriate risk prevention measures. To design flood control structures, for example, state-of-the-art models can indeed provide quantitative assessments of the corresponding risk reduction associated to the lower probability of flooding. Nevertheless, current methods cannot estimate how, and to what extent, such a reduction might trigger a future increase of the potential adverse consequences of flooding (the aforementioned "levee effect"). Neither can they evaluate how the latter might (in turn) lead to the requirement of additional flood control structures. Thus, while many progresses have been made in the static assessment of flood risk, more inter-disciplinary research is required for the development of methods for dynamic risk assessment, which is very much

  19. Heuristics structure and pervade formal risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacGillivray, Brian H

    2014-04-01

    Lay perceptions of risk appear rooted more in heuristics than in reason. A major concern of the risk regulation literature is that such "error-strewn" perceptions may be replicated in policy, as governments respond to the (mis)fears of the citizenry. This has led many to advocate a relatively technocratic approach to regulating risk, characterized by high reliance on formal risk and cost-benefit analysis. However, through two studies of chemicals regulation, we show that the formal assessment of risk is pervaded by its own set of heuristics. These include rules to categorize potential threats, define what constitutes valid data, guide causal inference, and to select and apply formal models. Some of these heuristics lay claim to theoretical or empirical justifications, others are more back-of-the-envelope calculations, while still more purport not to reflect some truth but simply to constrain discretion or perform a desk-clearing function. These heuristics can be understood as a way of authenticating or formalizing risk assessment as a scientific practice, representing a series of rules for bounding problems, collecting data, and interpreting evidence (a methodology). Heuristics are indispensable elements of induction. And so they are not problematic per se, but they can become so when treated as laws rather than as contingent and provisional rules. Pitfalls include the potential for systematic error, masking uncertainties, strategic manipulation, and entrenchment. Our central claim is that by studying the rules of risk assessment qua rules, we develop a novel representation of the methods, conventions, and biases of the prior art. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  20. Major Risk Factors for Heart Disease: High Blood Cholesterol

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... by means of a blood test called a "fasting lipoprotein profile." Be sure to ask for the ... syndrome," which is usually caused by overweight or obesity and by not getting enough physical activity. This ...

  1. Health risk assessment of chemical pollutants in a petrochemical complex

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F Golbabaie

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available   Background and Aims: workers in petrochemical industries are exposed to various contaminants and are facing to serious hazards, therefore a comprehensive risk assessment program for identification of hazardous chemicals that affect human health and also determination of hazardous tasks and processes is necessary.     Methods : This descriptive cross-sectional study was conducted in three stages. First stage consisted of identifying hazardous chemicals and determination of chemicals risk ratio, the second stage included the evaluation of worker's exposure to hazardous chemicals, and the third stage was estimating the relative risk of blood cancer caused by exposure to benzene through epidemiological studies.     Results: With regard to risk assessment method, 40 chemicals were identified in this Petrochemical Company. Among them, Benzene introduced as the most hazardous chemical. The results of the second stage showed that site man workers in noon shift work and in aromatic site with mean exposure 4.29 ppm had the highest exposure to benzene. The results of estimated leukemia relative risk stage in benzene exposure, the highest relative risk in workers related to site man workers in aromatic units with cumulative benzene exposure of 4.149 ppm. Years that obtained the relative risk of 2.3. The statistical test results showed that the relationship between worker's exposure to benzene and their job was significant(p<0/001     Conclusion : This study showed that benzene with a risk ratio of 4.5 -5 have 5th rank in risk levels and this indicates that preventative actions regarding to this hazardous and carcinogenic chemical must be started as soon as possible.

  2. Ecosystem services as assessment endpoints for ecological risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munns, Wayne R; Rea, Anne W; Suter, Glenn W; Martin, Lawrence; Blake-Hedges, Lynne; Crk, Tanja; Davis, Christine; Ferreira, Gina; Jordan, Steve; Mahoney, Michele; Barron, Mace G

    2016-07-01

    Ecosystem services are defined as the outputs of ecological processes that contribute to human welfare or have the potential to do so in the future. Those outputs include food and drinking water, clean air and water, and pollinated crops. The need to protect the services provided by natural systems has been recognized previously, but ecosystem services have not been formally incorporated into ecological risk assessment practice in a general way in the United States. Endpoints used conventionally in ecological risk assessment, derived directly from the state of the ecosystem (e.g., biophysical structure and processes), and endpoints based on ecosystem services serve different purposes. Conventional endpoints are ecologically important and susceptible entities and attributes that are protected under US laws and regulations. Ecosystem service endpoints are a conceptual and analytical step beyond conventional endpoints and are intended to complement conventional endpoints by linking and extending endpoints to goods and services with more obvious benefit to humans. Conventional endpoints can be related to ecosystem services even when the latter are not considered explicitly during problem formulation. To advance the use of ecosystem service endpoints in ecological risk assessment, the US Environmental Protection Agency's Risk Assessment Forum has added generic endpoints based on ecosystem services (ES-GEAE) to the original 2003 set of generic ecological assessment endpoints (GEAEs). Like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are defined by an entity and an attribute. Also like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are broadly described and will need to be made specific when applied to individual assessments. Adoption of ecosystem services as a type of assessment endpoint is intended to improve the value of risk assessment to environmental decision making, linking ecological risk to human well-being, and providing an improved means of communicating those risks. Integr Environ Assess Manag

  3. The ACTA PORT-score for predicting perioperative risk of blood transfusion for adult cardiac surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein, A A; Collier, T; Yeates, J; Miles, L F; Fletcher, S N; Evans, C; Richards, T

    2017-09-01

    A simple and accurate scoring system to predict risk of transfusion for patients undergoing cardiac surgery is lacking. We identified independent risk factors associated with transfusion by performing univariate analysis, followed by logistic regression. We then simplified the score to an integer-based system and tested it using the area under the receiver operator characteristic (AUC) statistic with a Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. Finally, the scoring system was applied to the external validation dataset and the same statistical methods applied to test the accuracy of the ACTA-PORT score. Several factors were independently associated with risk of transfusion, including age, sex, body surface area, logistic EuroSCORE, preoperative haemoglobin and creatinine, and type of surgery. In our primary dataset, the score accurately predicted risk of perioperative transfusion in cardiac surgery patients with an AUC of 0.76. The external validation confirmed accuracy of the scoring method with an AUC of 0.84 and good agreement across all scores, with a minor tendency to under-estimate transfusion risk in very high-risk patients. The ACTA-PORT score is a reliable, validated tool for predicting risk of transfusion for patients undergoing cardiac surgery. This and other scores can be used in research studies for risk adjustment when assessing outcomes, and might also be incorporated into a Patient Blood Management programme. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Journal of Anaesthesia. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

  4. [Single-donor (apheresis) platelets and pooled whole-blood-derived platelets--significance and assessment of both blood products].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hitzler, Walter E

    2014-01-01

    The transfusion efficacy of ATK, which contain fully functional platelets, is beyond all doubt. The equivalence of ATK and PTK has been subject of many studies. Some of those studies show the superiority of ATK's, while others do not, but there have been no studies that demonstrated a superiority of PTK's. The superiority of platelets stored in plasma and in third generation additive solution was demonstrated in clinical studies; therefore, it cannot be said that all the platelet concentrates on the German market are equivalent in efficacy. Of decisive importance, above all, is the risk of transfusion-transmitted infections with known pathogens, or those not yet discovered. This risk is different for ATK compared to PTK. Taking this difference in risk and the difference in donor exposure of transfused patients into account, it can definitely be said that ATK and PTK are not equivalent. In 2012, the Robert-Koch-Institute (RKI) published a mathematical risk model for different platelet concentrates and assessed the risk of transmitting known pathogens such as HIV, HCV, and HBV. The risk was higher for PTK compared to ATK. The relative risks for PTK derived from 4BCs were 2.2 (95%--CI: 2.1-2.4) for HIV, 2.7 (95%--CI: 2.5-3.0) for HCV, and 2.2 (95%--CI: 2.8-3.7) for HBV. At the present time, these are the relative risks of transfusion-transmitted infections with the traditional pathogens for PTK compared to ATK. In addition to the RKI assessed risks, there is the theoretical risk of a new, unknown agent, transmitted through blood exposure. The magnitude of this risk is hardly predictable for PTK. The experience gathered so far, especially in the last three decades, with the emergence of HIV, prions, and West Nil virus, shows that the biological nature of a next transfusion-transmissible infectious agent cannot be predictable. This agent, if we think at a conventional sexually transmissible agent with nucleic acid and long latent period, would spread first in areas with

  5. Analysis of existing risk assessments, and list of suggestions

    CERN Document Server

    Heimsch, Laura

    2016-01-01

    The scope of this project was to analyse risk assessments made at CERN and extracting some crucial information about the different methodologies used, profiles of people who make the risk assessments, and gathering information of whether the risk matrix was used and if the acceptable level of risk was defined. Second step of the project was to trigger discussion inside HSE about risk assessment by suggesting a risk matrix and a risk assessment template.

  6. Risk assessment and management logistics chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimir Vikulov

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: In the context of economic globalization and increasing complexity of economic relations enterprises need methods and techniques to improve and sustain their position on the global market. Integration processes offer business new opportunities, but at the same time present new challenges for the management, including the key objectives of the risk management. Method: On the basis of analysis tools known from the pertinent literature (Supply Chain Management and Supply Chain Risk Management methods, methods of probability theory, methods of risk management, methods of statistics the authors of this paper proposed their own risk assessment method and the method of management of logistics chains. The proposed tool is a specific hybrid of solutions known from the literature. Results: The presented method has been successfully used within the frames of economic-mathematical model of industrial enterprises. Indicators of supply chain risks, including risks caused by supplier are considered in this paper. Authors formed a method of optimizing the level of supply chain risk in the integration with suppliers and customers. Conclusion: Every organization, which starting the process of integration with supplier and customers, needs to use tools, methodologies and techniques for identification of "weak links" in the supply chain. The proposed method allows to fix risk origin places in various links of the supply chain and to identify "weak links" of a logistic chain that may occur in the future. The method is a useful tool for managing not only risks and risk situations, but also to improve the efficiency of current assets management by providing the ability to optimize the level of risk in the current assets management of the industrial enterprise.

  7. Exploring the uncertainties in cancer risk assessment using the integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slob, Wout; Bakker, Martine I; Biesebeek, Jan Dirk Te; Bokkers, Bas G H

    2014-08-01

    Current methods for cancer risk assessment result in single values, without any quantitative information on the uncertainties in these values. Therefore, single risk values could easily be overinterpreted. In this study, we discuss a full probabilistic cancer risk assessment approach in which all the generally recognized uncertainties in both exposure and hazard assessment are quantitatively characterized and probabilistically evaluated, resulting in a confidence interval for the final risk estimate. The methodology is applied to three example chemicals (aflatoxin, N-nitrosodimethylamine, and methyleugenol). These examples illustrate that the uncertainty in a cancer risk estimate may be huge, making single value estimates of cancer risk meaningless. Further, a risk based on linear extrapolation tends to be lower than the upper 95% confidence limit of a probabilistic risk estimate, and in that sense it is not conservative. Our conceptual analysis showed that there are two possible basic approaches for cancer risk assessment, depending on the interpretation of the dose-incidence data measured in animals. However, it remains unclear which of the two interpretations is the more adequate one, adding an additional uncertainty to the already huge confidence intervals for cancer risk estimates. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  8. Handling Interdependencies in Climate Change Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard J. Dawson

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Typically, a climate change risk assessment focuses on individual sectors or hazards. However, interdependencies between climate risks manifest themselves via functional, physical, geographical, economic, policy and social mechanisms. These can occur over a range of spatial or temporal scales and with different strengths of coupling. Three case studies are used to demonstrate how interdependencies can significantly alter the nature and magnitude of risk, and, consequently, investment priorities for adaptation. The three examples explore interdependencies that arise from (1 climate loading dependence; (2 mediation of two climate impacts by physical processes operating over large spatial extents; and, (3 multiple risks that are influenced by shared climatic and socio-economic drivers. Drawing upon learning from these case studies, and other work, a framework for the analysis and consideration of interdependencies in climate change risk assessment has been developed. This is an iterative learning loop that involves defining the system, scoping interaction mechanisms, applying appropriate modelling tools, identifying vulnerabilities and opportunities, and assessing the performance of adaptation interventions.

  9. Risk assessment for SAGD well blowouts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Worth, D.; Alhanati, F.; Lastiwka, M. [C-FER Technologies, Edmonton, AB (Canada); Crepin, S. [Petrocedeno, Caracas (Venezuela)

    2008-10-15

    This paper discussed a steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) pilot project currently being conducted in Venezuela's Orinoco Belt. A risk assessment was conducted as part of the pilot program in order to evaluate the use of single barrier completions in conjunction with a blowout response plan. The study considered 3 options: (1) an isolated double barrier completion with a downhole safety valve (DHSV) in the production tubing string and a packer in the production casing annulus; (2) a partially isolated completion with no DHSV and a packer in the production casing annulus; and (3) an open single barrier completion with no additional downhole barriers. A reservoir model was used to assess the blowout flowing potential of SAGD well pairs. The probability of a blowout was estimated using fault tree analysis techniques. Risk was determined for various blowout scenarios, including blowouts during normal and workover operations, as well as blowouts through various flow paths. Total risk for each completion scenario was also determined at 3 different time periods within the production life of the well pair. The possible consequences of a blowout were assessed using quantitative consequence models. Results of the study showed that environmental and economic risks were much higher for the open completion technique. Higher risks were also associated with the earlier life of the completion strings. 20 refs., 3 tabs., 19 figs.

  10. Functional assessment of the hepatic arterial blood flow by pharmacoradiography

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stellamor, K; Hruby, W; Peschl, L

    1981-12-01

    By means of celiacography it was possible to demonstrate that parenteral medication with parathormone creates a selective dilatation of the liver vessels in man, provided that they are dilatable. This hemodynamic hormone effect could not be traced in the other mesenteric vessels. The increase of portal hypertension resulting from cirrhosis leads to a loss of the dilating ability of liver vessels. This regressive reaction is well demonstrated on the parathormone-celiacogram. Thus a functional assessment of the hepatic blood flow is possible. The extent of the dilatability of the liver artery seems to be of great importance for the prognosis and indication of the porto-systemic shunt-operation. Moreover we could show that an increase in the liver perfusion demonstrates pathologic liver processes in a better way.

  11. Assessing ABO/Rh Blood Group Frequency and Association with Asymptomatic Malaria among Blood Donors Attending Arba Minch Blood Bank, South Ethiopia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Getaneh Alemu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Determination of the various ABO/Rh blood group distributions and their association with malaria infection has paramount importance in the context of transfusion medicine and malaria control. Methods. Facility based cross-sectional study was conducted from February to June, 2015, to assess ABO/Rh blood groups distribution and their association with asymptomatic malaria. A structured questionnaire was used to collect data. Blood grouping was done using monoclonal antibodies. Thin and thick blood films were examined for Plasmodium parasites. Data were analyzed using SPSS version 20.0. Results. A total of 416 blood donors participated with median age of 22±0.29 (median ± standard error of the mean. Distribution of ABO phenotypes, in decreasing order, was O (175, 42.1%, A (136, 32.7%, B (87, 20.9%, and AB (18, 4.3%. Most of them were Rh+ (386, 92.8%. The overall malaria prevalence was 4.1% (17/416. ABO blood group is significantly associated with malaria infection (P=0.022. High rate of parasitemia was seen in blood group O donors (6.899, P=0.003 compared to those with other ABO blood groups. Conclusion. Blood groups O and AB phenotypes are the most and the least ABO blood groups, respectively. There is significant association between ABO blood group and asymptomatic malaria parasitemia.

  12. Risk stratification and detection of new colorectal neoplasms after colorectal cancer screening with faecal occult blood test

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjerrum, Andreas; Milter, Maya Christel; Andersen, Ole

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Limited data exist on adenoma surveillance as recommended in the European guidelines for quality assurance in colorectal cancer (CRC) screening and diagnosis after faecal occult blood test (FOBT) screening. OBJECTIVE: To assess the European guidelines for adenoma surveillance after CRC...... of CRC was higher in risk group C than A (RR 5.20, 95% confidence interval: 0.63-42.58), but not statistically significant. In risk group C, half of new advanced adenomas were detected within the first year and four of nine CRC were detected within 3 years. CONCLUSION: Risk stratification of adenoma...

  13. Preliminary risk assessments of the small HTGR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Everline, C.J.; Bellis, E.A.

    1985-05-01

    Preliminary investment and safety risk assessments were performed for a preconceptual design of a four-module 250-MW(t) side-by-side steel-vessel pebble bed HTGR plant. Broad event spectra were analyzed involving component damage resulting in unscheduled plant outages and fission product releases resulting in offsite doses. The preliminary assessment indicates at this stage of the design that two categories of events govern the investment risk envelope: primary coolant leaks which release some circulating and plate-out activity that contaminates the confinement and turbogenerator damage which involves extensive turbine blade failure. Primary coolant leaks are important contributors because associated cleanup and decontamination requirements result in longer outages that arise from other events with comparable frequencies. Turbogenerator damage is the salient low-frequency investment risk accident due to the relatively long outages being experienced in the industry. Thermal transients are unimportant investment risk contributors because pressurized core heatups cause little damage, and depressurized core heatups occur at negligible frequencies relative to the forced outage goal. These preliminary results demonstrate investment and safety risk goal compliance at this stage in the design process. Studies are continuing in order to provide valuable insights into risk-significant events to assure a balanced approach to meeting user and regulatory requirements

  14. Bayesian Networks for enterprise risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonafede, C. E.; Giudici, P.

    2007-08-01

    According to different typologies of activity and priority, risks can assume diverse meanings and it can be assessed in different ways. Risk, in general, is measured in terms of a probability combination of an event (frequency) and its consequence (impact). To estimate the frequency and the impact (severity) historical data or expert opinions (either qualitative or quantitative data) are used. Moreover, qualitative data must be converted in numerical values or bounds to be used in the model. In the case of enterprise risk assessment the considered risks are, for instance, strategic, operational, legal and of image, which many times are difficult to be quantified. So in most cases only expert data, gathered by scorecard approaches, are available for risk analysis. The Bayesian Networks (BNs) are a useful tool to integrate different information and in particular to study the risk's joint distribution by using data collected from experts. In this paper we want to show a possible approach for building a BN in the particular case in which only prior probabilities of node states and marginal correlations between nodes are available, and when the variables have only two states.

  15. Dermal absorption and toxicological risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buist, H.

    2016-01-01

    Absorption of toxic substances via the skin is an important phenomenon in the assessment of the risk of exposure to these substances. People are exposed to a variety of substances and products via the skin, either directly or indirectly, while at work, at home or in public space. Pesticides,

  16. An approach to security risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engells, Thomas E

    2012-01-01

    Use of a brief survey instrument described in this article can be a useful means of obtaining actionable information in regards to risk assessment and crime prevention, the author points out. The survey yields data that assists in the prioritization of effort that can enhance the impact of a limited pool of qualified specialists.

  17. Next generation of microbiological risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Besten, den Heidy M.W.; Amézquita, Alejandro; Bover-Cid, Sara; Dagnas, Stéphane; Ellouze, Mariem; Guillou, Sandrine; Nychas, George; O'Mahony, Cian; Pérez-Rodriguez, Fernando; Membré, Jeanne Marie

    2017-01-01

    In food safety and public health risk evaluations, microbiological exposure assessment plays a central role as it provides an estimation of both the likelihood and the level of the microbial hazard in a specified consumer portion of food and takes microbial behaviour into account. While until now

  18. Ecological Risk Assessment in Water Resource Management ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The US EPA published guidelines for the application of ecological risk assessment (ERA) in the USA in 1998 (US EPA 1998). The process diagram derived by Murray and Claassen (1999) in an evaluation of the US EPA framework is discussed in the context of the South African National Water Act. The evaluation discusses ...

  19. Economic impact assessment in pest risk analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Soliman, T.A.A.; Mourits, M.C.M.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.; Werf, van der W.

    2010-01-01

    According to international treaties, phytosanitary measures against introduction and spread of invasive plant pests must be justified by a science-based pest risk analysis (PRA). Part of the PRA consists of an assessment of potential economic consequences. This paper evaluates the main available

  20. Overview of the probabilistic risk assessment approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reed, J.W.

    1985-01-01

    The techniques of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) are applicable to Department of Energy facilities. The background and techniques of PRA are given with special attention to seismic, wind and flooding external events. A specific application to seismic events is provided to demonstrate the method. However, the PRA framework is applicable also to wind and external flooding. 3 references, 8 figures, 1 table

  1. Risk assessment of integrated electronic health records.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bjornsson, Bjarni Thor; Sigurdardottir, Gudlaug; Stefansson, Stefan Orri

    2010-01-01

    The paper describes the security concerns related to Electronic Health Records (EHR) both in registration of data and integration of systems. A description of the current state of EHR systems in Iceland is provided, along with the Ministry of Health's future vision and plans. New legislation provides the opportunity for increased integration of EHRs and further collaboration between institutions. Integration of systems, along with greater availability and access to EHR data, requires increased security awareness since additional risks are introduced. The paper describes the core principles of information security as it applies to EHR systems and data. The concepts of confidentiality, integrity, availability, accountability and traceability are introduced and described. The paper discusses the legal requirements and importance of performing risk assessment for EHR data. Risk assessment methodology according to the ISO/IEC 27001 information security standard is described with examples on how it is applied to EHR systems.

  2. Transparent Global Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smolka, Anselm; Schneider, John; Pinho, Rui; Crowley, Helen

    2013-04-01

    Vulnerability to earthquakes is increasing, yet advanced reliable risk assessment tools and data are inaccessible to most, despite being a critical basis for managing risk. Also, there are few, if any, global standards that allow us to compare risk between various locations. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a unique collaborative effort that aims to provide organizations and individuals with tools and resources for transparent assessment of earthquake risk anywhere in the world. By pooling data, knowledge and people, GEM acts as an international forum for collaboration and exchange, and leverages the knowledge of leading experts for the benefit of society. Sharing of data and risk information, best practices, and approaches across the globe is key to assessing risk more effectively. Through global projects, open-source IT development and collaborations with more than 10 regions, leading experts are collaboratively developing unique global datasets, best practice, open tools and models for seismic hazard and risk assessment. Guided by the needs and experiences of governments, companies and citizens at large, they work in continuous interaction with the wider community. A continuously expanding public-private partnership constitutes the GEM Foundation, which drives the collaborative GEM effort. An integrated and holistic approach to risk is key to GEM's risk assessment platform, OpenQuake, that integrates all above-mentioned contributions and will become available towards the end of 2014. Stakeholders worldwide will be able to calculate, visualise and investigate earthquake risk, capture new data and to share their findings for joint learning. Homogenized information on hazard can be combined with data on exposure (buildings, population) and data on their vulnerability, for loss assessment around the globe. Furthermore, for a true integrated view of seismic risk, users can add social vulnerability and resilience indices to maps and estimate the costs and benefits

  3. Uncertainties in risk assessment and decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Starzec, Peter; Purucker, Tom; Stewart, Robert

    2008-02-01

    The general concept for risk assessment in accordance with the Swedish model for contaminated soil implies that the toxicological reference value for a given receptor is first back-calculated to a corresponding concentration of a compound in soil and (if applicable) then modified with respect to e.g. background levels, acute toxicity, and factor of safety. This result in a guideline value that is subsequently compared to the observed concentration levels. Many sources of uncertainty exist when assessing whether the risk for a receptor is significant or not. In this study, the uncertainty aspects have been addressed from three standpoints: 1. Uncertainty in the comparison between the level of contamination (source) and a given risk criterion (e.g. a guideline value) and possible implications on subsequent decisions. This type of uncertainty is considered to be most important in situations where a contaminant is expected to be spatially heterogeneous without any tendency to form isolated clusters (hotspots) that can be easily delineated, i.e. where mean values are appropriate to compare to the risk criterion. 2. Uncertainty in spatial distribution of a contaminant. Spatial uncertainty should be accounted for when hotspots are to be delineated and the volume of soil contaminated with levels above a stated decision criterion has to be assessed (quantified). 3. Uncertainty in an ecological exposure model with regard to the moving pattern of a receptor in relation to spatial distribution of contaminant in question. The study points out that the choice of methodology to characterize the relation between contaminant concentration and a pre-defined risk criterion is governed by a conceptual perception of the contaminant's spatial distribution and also depends on the structure of collected data (observations). How uncertainty in transition from contaminant concentration into risk criterion can be quantified was demonstrated by applying hypothesis tests and the concept of

  4. Assessing the influence of mechanical ventilation on blood gases and blood pressure in rattlesnakes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bertelsen, Mads Frost; Buchanan, Rasmus; Jensen, Heidi Meldgaard

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To characterize the impact of mechanical positive pressure ventilation on heart rate (HR), arterial blood pressure, blood gases, lactate, glucose, sodium, potassium and calcium concentrations in rattlesnakes during anesthesia and the subsequent recovery period. STUDY DESIGN: Prospectiv...

  5. Environmental Risk Assessment Strategy for Nanomaterials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janeck J. Scott‐Fordsmand

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available An Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA for nanomaterials (NMs is outlined in this paper. Contrary to other recent papers on the subject, the main data requirements, models and advancement within each of the four risk assessment domains are described, i.e., in the: (i materials, (ii release, fate and exposure, (iii hazard and (iv risk characterisation domains. The material, which is obviously the foundation for any risk assessment, should be described according to the legislatively required characterisation data. Characterisation data will also be used at various levels within the ERA, e.g., exposure modelling. The release, fate and exposure data and models cover the input for environmental distribution models in order to identify the potential (PES and relevant exposure scenarios (RES and, subsequently, the possible release routes, both with regard to which compartment(s NMs are distributed in line with the factors determining the fate within environmental compartment. The initial outcome in the risk characterisation will be a generic Predicted Environmental Concentration (PEC, but a refined PEC can be obtained by applying specific exposure models for relevant media. The hazard information covers a variety of representative, relevant and reliable organisms and/or functions, relevant for the RES and enabling a hazard characterisation. The initial outcome will be hazard characterisation in test systems allowing estimating a Predicted No-Effect concentration (PNEC, either based on uncertainty factors or on a NM adapted version of the Species Sensitivity Distributions approach. The risk characterisation will either be based on a deterministic risk ratio approach (i.e., PEC/PNEC or an overlay of probability distributions, i.e., exposure and hazard distributions, using the nano relevant models.

  6. Environmental Risk Assessment Strategy for Nanomaterials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M; Semenzin, Elena; Nowack, Bernd; Hunt, Neil; Hristozov, Danail; Marcomini, Antonio; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Jiménez, Araceli Sánchez; Landsiedel, Robert; Tran, Lang; Oomen, Agnes G; Bos, Peter M J; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin

    2017-10-19

    An Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA) for nanomaterials (NMs) is outlined in this paper. Contrary to other recent papers on the subject, the main data requirements, models and advancement within each of the four risk assessment domains are described, i.e., in the: (i) materials, (ii) release, fate and exposure, (iii) hazard and (iv) risk characterisation domains. The material, which is obviously the foundation for any risk assessment, should be described according to the legislatively required characterisation data. Characterisation data will also be used at various levels within the ERA, e.g., exposure modelling. The release, fate and exposure data and models cover the input for environmental distribution models in order to identify the potential (PES) and relevant exposure scenarios (RES) and, subsequently, the possible release routes, both with regard to which compartment(s) NMs are distributed in line with the factors determining the fate within environmental compartment. The initial outcome in the risk characterisation will be a generic Predicted Environmental Concentration (PEC), but a refined PEC can be obtained by applying specific exposure models for relevant media. The hazard information covers a variety of representative, relevant and reliable organisms and/or functions, relevant for the RES and enabling a hazard characterisation. The initial outcome will be hazard characterisation in test systems allowing estimating a Predicted No-Effect concentration (PNEC), either based on uncertainty factors or on a NM adapted version of the Species Sensitivity Distributions approach. The risk characterisation will either be based on a deterministic risk ratio approach (i.e., PEC/PNEC) or an overlay of probability distributions, i.e., exposure and hazard distributions, using the nano relevant models.

  7. Cancer risk assessments and environmental regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scroggin, D.G.

    1990-01-01

    Governmental regulation of toxic substances, such as carcinogens and radiation, prompts both legal and scientific controversies. Industry, environmental activist groups, government regulators, and the general public are all concerned with the question of how environmental risk to public health is to be measured and what level of risk warrants government action under the environmental laws. Several recent events shed light on the fundamental scientific and legal problems inherent in such regulation, and these events may affect the direction of future developments. These events include implementation of generic Risk Assessment Guidelines by the US EPA, litigation challenging EPA's regulation of carcinogenic substances, new scientific understanding of the relative risks from human exposure to natural and man-made sources, and the continuing growth of toxic tort litigation in which victims of cancer seek large damages from industrial emitters of pollution

  8. New approaches in human health risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abass, Khaled; Carlsen, Anders; Rautio, Arja

    2016-01-01

    Studies on the precise impact of environmental pollutants on human health are difficult to undertake and interpret, because many genetic and environmental factors influence health at the same time and to varying degrees. Our chapter in the AMAP report was based on new approaches to describe risks and future needs. In this paper, we will introduce the issues associated with risk assessment of single chemicals, and present suggestions for future studies as well as a summary of lessons learned during the health-related parts of the European Union-funded FP7 project ArcRisk (Arctic Health Risks: Impacts on health in the Arctic and Europe owing to climate-induced changes in contaminant cycling, 2009-2014; www.arcrisk.eu).

  9. New approaches in human health risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khaled Abass

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Studies on the precise impact of environmental pollutants on human health are difficult to undertake and interpret, because many genetic and environmental factors influence health at the same time and to varying degrees. Our chapter in the AMAP report was based on new approaches to describe risks and future needs. In this paper, we will introduce the issues associated with risk assessment of single chemicals, and present suggestions for future studies as well as a summary of lessons learned during the health-related parts of the European Union-funded FP7 project ArcRisk (Arctic Health Risks: Impacts on health in the Arctic and Europe owing to climate-induced changes in contaminant cycling, 2009–2014; www.arcrisk.eu.

  10. Model based risk assessment - the CORAS framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gran, Bjoern Axel; Fredriksen, Rune; Thunem, Atoosa P-J.

    2004-04-15

    Traditional risk analysis and assessment is based on failure-oriented models of the system. In contrast to this, model-based risk assessment (MBRA) utilizes success-oriented models describing all intended system aspects, including functional, operational and organizational aspects of the target. The target models are then used as input sources for complementary risk analysis and assessment techniques, as well as a basis for the documentation of the assessment results. The EU-funded CORAS project developed a tool-supported methodology for the application of MBRA in security-critical systems. The methodology has been tested with successful outcome through a series of seven trial within the telemedicine and ecommerce areas. The CORAS project in general and the CORAS application of MBRA in particular have contributed positively to the visibility of model-based risk assessment and thus to the disclosure of several potentials for further exploitation of various aspects within this important research field. In that connection, the CORAS methodology's possibilities for further improvement towards utilization in more complex architectures and also in other application domains such as the nuclear field can be addressed. The latter calls for adapting the framework to address nuclear standards such as IEC 60880 and IEC 61513. For this development we recommend applying a trial driven approach within the nuclear field. The tool supported approach for combining risk analysis and system development also fits well with the HRP proposal for developing an Integrated Design Environment (IDE) providing efficient methods and tools to support control room systems design. (Author)

  11. Cord blood vitamin D and the risk of acute lower respiratory infection in Indigenous infants in the Northern Territory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Binks, Michael J; Smith-Vaughan, Heidi C; Marsh, Robyn; Chang, Anne B; Andrews, Ross M

    2016-04-04

    To assess vitamin D status in Indigenous mothers and infants in the Northern Territory, and to determine whether cord blood vitamin D levels are correlated with the risk of infant hospitalisation for acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI). Within a nested cohort of 109 Indigenous mother-infant pairs recruited between 2006 and 2011, we used liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry to measure vitamin D (25(OH)D3) levels in maternal blood during pregnancy (n = 33; median gestation, 32 weeks [range, 28-36 weeks]) and at birth (n = 106; median gestation, 39 weeks [range, 34-41 weeks]), in cord blood (n = 84; median gestation, 39 weeks [range, 36-41 weeks]), and in infant blood at age 7 months (n = 37; median age, 7.1 months [range, 6.6-8.1 months]). ALRI hospitalisations during the first 12 months of infancy, identified using International Classification of Diseases coding (J09-J22, A37-A37.9). Compared with mean 25(OH)D3 levels in maternal blood during pregnancy (104 nmol/L), mean levels were 23% lower in maternal blood at birth (80 nmol/L) and 48% lower in cord blood samples (54 nmol/L). The mean cord blood 25(OH)D3 concentration in seven infants subsequently hospitalised for an ALRI was 37 nmol/L (95% CI, 25-48 nmol/L), lower than the 56 nmol/L (95% CI, 51-61 nmol/L) in the 77 infants who were not hospitalised with an ALRI (P = 0.025). Cord blood 25(OH)D3 concentrations were about half those in maternal blood during the third trimester of pregnancy (about 7 weeks earlier). Most cord blood levels (80%) were classified as vitamin D insufficient (L) by existing guidelines, and were lower among infants who were subsequently hospitalised with an ALRI.

  12. Risk assessment in man and mouse.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balci, Fuat; Freestone, David; Gallistel, Charles R

    2009-02-17

    Human and mouse subjects tried to anticipate at which of 2 locations a reward would appear. On a randomly scheduled fraction of the trials, it appeared with a short latency at one location; on the complementary fraction, it appeared after a longer latency at the other location. Subjects of both species accurately assessed the exogenous uncertainty (the probability of a short versus a long trial) and the endogenous uncertainty (from the scalar variability in their estimates of an elapsed duration) to compute the optimal target latency for a switch from the short- to the long-latency location. The optimal latency was arrived at so rapidly that there was no reliably discernible improvement over trials. Under these nonverbal conditions, humans and mice accurately assess risks and behave nearly optimally. That this capacity is well-developed in the mouse opens up the possibility of a genetic approach to the neurobiological mechanisms underlying risk assessment.

  13. Quantitative risk assessment of digitalized safety systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shin, Sung Min; Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hym Gook [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Seung Jun [UNIST, Ulasn (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    A report published by the U.S. National Research Council indicates that appropriate methods for assessing reliability are key to establishing the acceptability of digital instrumentation and control (I and C) systems in safety-critical plants such as NPPs. Since the release of this issue, the methodology for the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of digital I and C systems has been studied. However, there is still no widely accepted method. Kang and Sung found three critical factors for safety assessment of digital systems: detection coverage of fault-tolerant techniques, software reliability quantification, and network communication risk. In reality the various factors composing digitalized I and C systems are not independent of each other but rather closely connected. Thus, from a macro point of view, a method that can integrate risk factors with different characteristics needs to be considered together with the micro approaches to address the challenges facing each factor.

  14. Seismic Risk Assessment for the Kyrgyz Republic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pittore, Massimiliano; Sousa, Luis; Grant, Damian; Fleming, Kevin; Parolai, Stefano; Fourniadis, Yannis; Free, Matthew; Moldobekov, Bolot; Takeuchi, Ko

    2017-04-01

    The Kyrgyz Republic is one of the most socially and economically dynamic countries in Central Asia, and one of the most endangered by earthquake hazard in the region. In order to support the government of the Kyrgyz Republic in the development of a country-level Disaster Risk Reduction strategy, a comprehensive seismic risk study has been developed with the support of the World Bank. As part of this project, state-of-the-art hazard, exposure and vulnerability models have been developed and combined into the assessment of direct physical and economic risk on residential, educational and transportation infrastructure. The seismic hazard has been modelled with three different approaches, in order to provide a comprehensive overview of the possible consequences. A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) approach has been used to quantitatively evaluate the distribution of expected ground shaking intensity, as constrained by the compiled earthquake catalogue and associated seismic source model. A set of specific seismic scenarios based on events generated from known fault systems have been also considered, in order to provide insight on the expected consequences in case of strong events in proximity of densely inhabited areas. Furthermore, long-span catalogues of events have been generated stochastically and employed in the probabilistic analysis of expected losses over the territory of the Kyrgyz Republic. Damage and risk estimates have been computed by using an exposure model recently developed for the country, combined with the assignment of suitable fragility/vulnerability models. The risk estimation has been carried out with spatial aggregation at the district (rayon) level. The obtained results confirm the high level of seismic risk throughout the country, also pinpointing the location of several risk hotspots, particularly in the southern districts, in correspondence with the Ferghana valley. The outcome of this project will further support the local

  15. Expert judgement models in quantitative risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosqvist, T. [VTT Automation, Helsinki (Finland); Tuominen, R. [VTT Automation, Tampere (Finland)

    1999-12-01

    Expert judgement is a valuable source of information in risk management. Especially, risk-based decision making relies significantly on quantitative risk assessment, which requires numerical data describing the initiator event frequencies and conditional probabilities in the risk model. This data is seldom found in databases and has to be elicited from qualified experts. In this report, we discuss some modelling approaches to expert judgement in risk modelling. A classical and a Bayesian expert model is presented and applied to real case expert judgement data. The cornerstone in the models is the log-normal distribution, which is argued to be a satisfactory choice for modelling degree-of-belief type probability distributions with respect to the unknown parameters in a risk model. Expert judgements are qualified according to bias, dispersion, and dependency, which are treated differently in the classical and Bayesian approaches. The differences are pointed out and related to the application task. Differences in the results obtained from the different approaches, as applied to real case expert judgement data, are discussed. Also, the role of a degree-of-belief type probability in risk decision making is discussed.

  16. Expert judgement models in quantitative risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosqvist, T.; Tuominen, R.

    1999-01-01

    Expert judgement is a valuable source of information in risk management. Especially, risk-based decision making relies significantly on quantitative risk assessment, which requires numerical data describing the initiator event frequencies and conditional probabilities in the risk model. This data is seldom found in databases and has to be elicited from qualified experts. In this report, we discuss some modelling approaches to expert judgement in risk modelling. A classical and a Bayesian expert model is presented and applied to real case expert judgement data. The cornerstone in the models is the log-normal distribution, which is argued to be a satisfactory choice for modelling degree-of-belief type probability distributions with respect to the unknown parameters in a risk model. Expert judgements are qualified according to bias, dispersion, and dependency, which are treated differently in the classical and Bayesian approaches. The differences are pointed out and related to the application task. Differences in the results obtained from the different approaches, as applied to real case expert judgement data, are discussed. Also, the role of a degree-of-belief type probability in risk decision making is discussed

  17. Safety analysis and risk assessment handbook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, V.L.; Colwell, R.G.; Dickey, R.L.

    1997-01-01

    This Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) provides guidance to the safety analyst at the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site (RFETS) in the preparation of safety analyses and risk assessments. Although the older guidance (the Rocky Flats Risk Assessment Guide) continues to be used for updating the Final Safety Analysis Reports developed in the mid-1980s, this new guidance is used with all new authorization basis documents. With the mission change at RFETS came the need to establish new authorization basis documents for its facilities, whose functions had changed. The methodology and databases for performing the evaluations that support the new authorization basis documents had to be standardized, to avoid the use of different approaches and/or databases for similar accidents in different facilities. This handbook presents this new standardized approach. The handbook begins with a discussion of the requirements of the different types of authorization basis documents and how to choose the one appropriate for the facility to be evaluated. It then walks the analyst through the process of identifying all the potential hazards in the facility, classifying them, and choosing the ones that need to be analyzed further. It then discusses the methods for evaluating accident initiation and progression and covers the basic steps in a safety analysis, including consequence and frequency binning and risk ranking. The handbook lays out standardized approaches for determining the source terms of the various accidents (including airborne release fractions, leakpath factors, etc.), the atmospheric dispersion factors appropriate for Rocky Flats, and the methods for radiological and chemical consequence assessments. The radiological assessments use a radiological open-quotes templateclose quotes, a spreadsheet that incorporates the standard values of parameters, whereas the chemical assessments use the standard codes ARCHIE and ALOHA

  18. An abuse of risk assessment: how regulatory agencies improperly adopted LNT for cancer risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calabrese, Edward J

    2015-04-01

    The Genetics Panel of the National Academy of Sciences' Committee on Biological Effects of Atomic Radiation (BEAR) recommended the adoption of the linear dose-response model in 1956, abandoning the threshold dose-response for genetic risk assessments. This recommendation was quickly generalized to include somatic cells for cancer risk assessment and later was instrumental in the adoption of linearity for carcinogen risk assessment by the Environmental Protection Agency. The Genetics Panel failed to provide any scientific assessment to support this recommendation and refused to do so when later challenged by other leading scientists. Thus, the linearity model used in cancer risk assessment was based on ideology rather than science and originated with the recommendation of the NAS BEAR Committee Genetics Panel. Historical documentation in support of these conclusions is provided in the transcripts of the Panel meetings and in previously unexamined correspondence among Panel members.

  19. Donation frequency, iron loss, and risk of cancer among blood donors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Edgren, Gustaf; Reilly, Marie; Hjalgrim, Henrik

    2008-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Long-term deleterious effects of repeated blood donations may be masked by the donors' healthy lifestyle. To investigate possible effects of blood donation and iron loss through blood donation on cancer incidence while minimizing "healthy donor effects," we made dose......-response comparisons within a cohort of Swedish and Danish blood donors. METHODS: We used a nested case-control study design, in which case patients were defined as all donors who were diagnosed with a malignancy between their first recorded blood donation and study termination (n = 10866). Control subjects (n...... plasma donors (> 25 vs 0 donations, OR = 2.14, 95% CI = 1.22 to 3.74). CONCLUSIONS: Repeated blood donation was not associated with increased or decreased risk of cancer overall. The lack of consistency across latency periods casts doubt on an apparent association between reduced cancer risk and iron...

  20. Microbiological risk assessment and public health

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roger Skinner

    1992-01-01

    Despite the advances made in risk assessment i the past twenty years, in areas as diverse as toxicology and offshore engineering, the risk assessment approach has made little impact on those addressing the microbiological aspects of public health. In this paper the advances which have been made are discussed and the difficulties preventing the wider application of microbiological risk assessment (MRA) to public health are considered. The term microbiological risk is used here to mean the probability of contracting a disease caused by a microorganism. I intend to demonstrate that the dynamic nature of microorganisms and the unique nature of the relationship between a pathogen (a microorganism which causes disease) and its host create special challenges for those involved in MRA. Although these problems are difficult they are not intractable. Indeed in some cases partial solutions have already been found and applied. It is hoped that this paper will help stimulate further thought and consideration in a variety of disciplines so that these challenges can be met, thereby allowing MRA to fulfil its potential

  1. Microbiological risk assessment and public health

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Skinner, Roger

    1992-07-01

    Despite the advances made in risk assessment i the past twenty years, in areas as diverse as toxicology and offshore engineering, the risk assessment approach has made little impact on those addressing the microbiological aspects of public health. In this paper the advances which have been made are discussed and the difficulties preventing the wider application of microbiological risk assessment (MRA) to public health are considered. The term microbiological risk is used here to mean the probability of contracting a disease caused by a microorganism. I intend to demonstrate that the dynamic nature of microorganisms and the unique nature of the relationship between a pathogen (a microorganism which causes disease) and its host create special challenges for those involved in MRA. Although these problems are difficult they are not intractable. Indeed in some cases partial solutions have already been found and applied. It is hoped that this paper will help stimulate further thought and consideration in a variety of disciplines so that these challenges can be met, thereby allowing MRA to fulfil its potential.

  2. A microbial identification framework for risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernatchez, Stéphane; Anoop, Valar; Saikali, Zeina; Breton, Marie

    2018-06-01

    Micro-organisms are increasingly used in a variety of products for commercial uses, including cleaning products. Such microbial-based cleaning products (MBCP) are represented as a more environmentally-friendly alternative to chemically based cleaning products. The identity of the micro-organisms formulated into these products is often considered confidential business information and is not revealed or it is only partly revealed (i.e., identification to the genus, not to the species). That paucity of information complicates the evaluation of the risk associated with their use. The accurate taxonomic identification of those micro-organisms is important so that a suitable risk assessment of the products can be conducted. To alleviate difficulties associated with adequate identification of micro-organisms in MBCP and other products containing micro-organisms, a microbial identification framework for risk assessment (MIFRA) has been elaborated. It serves to provide guidance on a polyphasic tiered approach, combining the data obtained from the use of various methods (i.e., polyphasic approach) combined with the sequential selection of the methods (i.e., tiered) to achieve a satisfactory identity of the micro-organism to an acceptable taxonomic level. The MIFRA is suitable in various risk assessment contexts for micro-organisms used in any commercial product. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  3. Quantitative risk assessment of drinking water contaminants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cothern, C.R.; Coniglio, W.A.; Marcus, W.L.

    1986-01-01

    The development of criteria and standards for the regulation of drinking water contaminants involves a variety of processes, one of which is risk estimation. This estimation process, called quantitative risk assessment, involves combining data on the occurrence of the contaminant in drinking water and its toxicity. The human exposure to a contaminant can be estimated from occurrence data. Usually the toxicity or number of health effects per concentration level is estimated from animal bioassay studies using the multistage model. For comparison, other models will be used including the Weibull, probit, logit and quadratic ones. Because exposure and toxicity data are generally incomplete, assumptions need to be made and this generally results in a wide range of certainty in the estimates. This range can be as wide as four to six orders of magnitude in the case of the volatile organic compounds in drinking water and a factor of four to five for estimation of risk due to radionuclides in drinking water. As examples of the differences encountered in risk assessment of drinking water contaminants, discussions are presented on benzene, lead, radon and alachlor. The lifetime population risk estimates for these contaminants are, respectively, in the ranges of: <1 - 3000, <1 - 8000, 2000-40,000 and <1 - 80. 11 references, 1 figure, 1 table

  4. Clinical risk assessment in intensive care unit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saeed Asefzadeh

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Clinical risk management focuses on improving the quality and safety of health care services by identifying the circumstances and opportunities that put patients at risk of harm and acting to prevent or control those risks. The goal of this study is to identify and assess the failure modes in the ICU of Qazvin′s Social Security Hospital (Razi Hospital through Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA. Methods: This was a qualitative-quantitative research by Focus Discussion Group (FDG performed in Qazvin Province, Iran during 2011. The study population included all individuals and owners who are familiar with the process in ICU. Sampling method was purposeful and the FDG group members were selected by the researcher. The research instrument was standard worksheet that has been used by several researchers. Data was analyzed by FMEA technique. Results: Forty eight clinical errors and failure modes identified, results showed that the highest risk probability number (RPN was in respiratory care "Ventilator′s alarm malfunction (no alarm" with the score 288, and the lowest was in gastrointestinal "not washing the NG-Tube" with the score 8. Conclusions: Many of the identified errors can be prevented by group members. Clinical risk assessment and management is the key to delivery of effective health care.

  5. A methodology for reviewing Probabilistic Risk Assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Derby, S.L.

    1983-01-01

    The starting point for peer review of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a clear understanding of how the risk estimate was prepared and of what contributions dominate the calculation. The problem facing the reviewers is how to cut through the complex details of a PRA to gain this understanding. This paper presents a structured, analytical procedure that solves this problem. The effectiveness of this solution is demonstrated by an application on the Zion Probabilistic Safety Study. The procedure found the three dominant initiating events and provided a simplified reconstruction of the calculation of the risk estimate. Significant assessments of uncertainty were also identified. If peer review disputes the accuracy of these judgments, then the revised risk estimate could significantly increase. The value of this procedure comes from having a systematic framework for the PRA review. Practical constraints limit the time and qualified people needed for an adequate review. Having the established framework from this procedure as a starting point, reviewers can focus most of their attention on the accuracy and the completeness of the calculation. Time wasted at the start of the review is reduced by first using this procedure to sort through the technical details of the PRA and to reconstruct the risk estimate from dominant contributions

  6. Recent developments in carcinogenic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krewski, D.; Murdoch, D.; Withey, J.R.

    1989-01-01

    In this paper, recent developments in the quantitative assessment of carcinogenic risks based on toxicological and epidemiological data are reviewed. In particular, model-free approaches to low-dose risk assessment which involve only the assumption of low-dose linearity are considered. Measures of carcinogenic potency which avoid the need to extrapolate to low doses are also described. The allometric bases for converting risk estimates between species are then discussed. Pharmacokinetic models for determining the dose delivered to the target tissue are examined, and the implications of using such models in extrapolating between doses, of exposure, and species are examined. The application of these concepts in chemical and radiation carcinogenesis is illustrated by means of brief case studies of methylene chloride and Rn. Biologically motivated cancer models based on the initiation-promotion-progression theory of carcinogenesis are discussed and compared with the classical multistage model. The estimation of risks with time-dependent exposure patterns is considered, and conditions under which the use of a time-weighted average dose is appropriate are identified. Finally, the estimation of carcinogenic risks posed by exposure to complex mixtures is explored. 92 references

  7. 2009 Space Shuttle Probabilistic Risk Assessment Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamlin, Teri L.; Canga, Michael A.; Boyer, Roger L.; Thigpen, Eric B.

    2010-01-01

    Loss of a Space Shuttle during flight has severe consequences, including loss of a significant national asset; loss of national confidence and pride; and, most importantly, loss of human life. The Shuttle Probabilistic Risk Assessment (SPRA) is used to identify risk contributors and their significance; thus, assisting management in determining how to reduce risk. In 2006, an overview of the SPRA Iteration 2.1 was presented at PSAM 8 [1]. Like all successful PRAs, the SPRA is a living PRA and has undergone revisions since PSAM 8. The latest revision to the SPRA is Iteration 3. 1, and it will not be the last as the Shuttle program progresses and more is learned. This paper discusses the SPRA scope, overall methodology, and results, as well as provides risk insights. The scope, assumptions, uncertainties, and limitations of this assessment provide risk-informed perspective to aid management s decision-making process. In addition, this paper compares the Iteration 3.1 analysis and results to the Iteration 2.1 analysis and results presented at PSAM 8.

  8. Risk Factors Associated with High Blood Pressure in Two-to Five-Year-Old Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crispim, Paula Azevedo Aranha; Peixoto, Maria do Rosário Gondim; Jardim, Paulo César Brandão Veiga

    2014-01-01

    Background Over recent decades, the prevalence of high blood pressure (BP) has increased among children. Several risk factors are involved in the genesis of high BP during childhood, and their early identification can prevent the development of that disease. Objectives To assess the prevalence of high BP and associated factors in children. Methods Cross-sectional, population-based study, carried out at the household. This study included 276 two- to five-year-old children in the city of Goiânia, state of Goiás, and assessed their BP, sociodemographic characteristics, birth weight, high BP family history, passive smoking, maternal breastfeeding, dietary habits, sedentary lifestyle and nutritional status. Poisson regression was used to assess the association between risk factors and high BP. Results Their mean age was 3.1 ± 0.79 years, and high BP and overweight were observed in 19.9% and 11.2% of the children, respectively. Direct association of high BP was identified with age [prevalence ratio (PR) = 2.3; 95%CI: 1.2 - 4.8; p = 0.017] and overweight (PR = 2.0; 95%CI: 1.2 - 3.6; p = 0.014). No other variable associated with high BP. Conclusions The prevalence of high BP in children was high. Overweight and younger children had greater prevalence of high BP. PMID:24263779

  9. SYSTEMIC COMPLICATIONS AND THEIR RISK FACTORS AMONG TEHRANIAN BLOOD DONOR, 2005

    OpenAIRE

    F. Majlessi; S. Ghafari; A. Rahimi-Foroushani M. Maghsoodlou

    2008-01-01

    The systemic complications of blood donation are the first reasons why patients fail to return for further blood donation. This study was designed to determine the frequency of these complications and their associated risk factors among blood donors in Tehran. Also, we aimed to provide suitable methods to decrease the frequency of these adverse events, thereby eliminating the most important causes of withdrawal, while maintaining the health of the donors. This analytical descriptive cross-sec...

  10. Application of probabilistic risk assessment to reprocessing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perkins, W.C.

    1984-01-01

    The Savannah River Laboratory uses probabilistic methods of risk assessment in safety analyses of reprocessing facilities at the Savannah River Plant. This method uses both the probability of an accident and its consequence to calculate the risks from radiological, chemical, and industrial hazards. The three principal steps in such an assesment are identification of accidents, calculation of frequencies, and consequence quantification. The tools used at SRL include several databanks, logic tree methods, and computer-assisted methods for calculating both frequencies and consequences. 5 figures

  11. Assessing the Environmental Risks of Nanomaterials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grieger, Khara Deanne; Hansen, Steffen Foss; Baun, Anders

    to a wide range of technical limitations. For instance, serious knowledge gaps remain within e.g. the detection of NM in the environment, developing adequate testing equipment and protocols, and toxicity endpoints (Grieger et al., 2009). In the past few years, many scientists and organizations have...... considered. Furthermore, we recommend the use of biomonitoring in some environmental ‘hot spots’ to serve as early warning detectors while the field of NM environmental risk assessment matures, as recommended in our previous work. Ultimately, this analysis may aid the advancement of environmental risk...

  12. A risk assessment of the SAFR plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rutherford, P.D.; Mills, J.C.; Lancet, R.T.; Nourjah, P.

    1987-01-01

    The Sodium Advanced Fast Reactor (SAFR) is a modular, advanced concept, Liquid Metal Reactor (LMR), funded by the U.S., and designed by Rockwell International, Bechtel Corporation, and Combustion Engineering. SAFR utilizes the inherently safe features of small fast reactors, including natural convection decay heat removal systems, a self-actuated shutdown system (SASS) and inherent core response to design basis events without scram including transient overpower (TOP), loss of flow (LOF), and loss of heat sink (LOHS) events. A Level 3 probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) has been performed which demonstrates considerable reduction in plant and public risk compared to current commercial reactors. (orig./HSCH)

  13. RISK OF RED BLOOD CELL ALLOIMMUNISATION IN RWANDA ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2013-04-04

    Apr 4, 2013 ... spin crossmatch (IS-XM) or indirect antiglobulin test crossmatch (IAT-XM). Objectives: ... with an odds ratio of 4.8; [95% CI=1.2-19.8]; and a p-value of 0.031. Conclusion: ... formation of single or multiple antibodies to red blood.

  14. Normalized Dynamic Blood Pressure Parameters - Additional Marker of Hypertension Risk

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Jurák, Pavel; Halámek, Josef; Vondra, Vlastimil; Leinveber, P.; Fráňa, P.; Plachý, M.; Souček, M.; Kára, T.

    2008-01-01

    Roč. 6, č. 1 (2008), s. 103 ISSN 1556-7451. [World Congress on Heart Disease /14./. 26.07.2008-29.07.2008, Toronto] Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z20650511 Keywords : hypertension * vessel compliance * blood pressure * dynamic parameters Subject RIV: FA - Cardiovascular Disease s incl. Cardiotharic Surgery

  15. Risk assessment: A European Community perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haigh, R [Industrial Medicine and Hygiene Unit Health and Safety Directorate, Directorate-General Employment, Industrial Relations and Social Affairs Commission of the European Communities, Luxembourg (Luxembourg)

    1992-07-01

    The world is a risky place in which to live{exclamation_point} The world tolerates that 750,000 deaths occur on the roads each year. Society has not yet come to terms with the added burden that urbanisation brings to developing countries. Pollution from the use of fossil fuels creates incalculable loss to the world's environment and to the health of its inhabitants. The misuse of chemicals provokes suffering and deformity. In the European Community alone, over 21 million tonnes of toxic waste have to be treated each year. Of course, there are different types of risk: individual and societal. Individuals continue to travel by air in defiance of terrorists or faulty machinery. Whilst society urges caution in diet and nutrition, the individual is probably more worried about food additives that he is about eating too much or making a rigorous appraisal of the value of his die{exclamation_point}. As the conference progresses many people will die from the causes of malnutrition, from war or societal neglect while we, individually, will be more at risk from overeating. In other words, we perceive risks is in a multitude of ways. We tolerate these risks according to our perception of what we feel is acceptable without carrying out scientific assessment of the relative severity of those risks. If applied at a governmental level, this subjective tolerance can lead to unnecessary burdens or constraints that are disproportionate to the risk. Clearly, this is not acceptable for policy makers. We have just seen the closure of the UNCED World Conference on the Environment in Rio de Janeiro, where the absolute need for more effective cooperation in the protection of the environment and the world inhabitants was convincingly demonstrated. The European Communities already coordinate risk assessment with its twelve Member States in a large number of areas and is increasing its international cooperation. We have recognized that it is no longer possible to carry out effective risk

  16. Risk assessment: A European Community perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haigh, R.

    1992-01-01

    The world is a risky place in which to live! The world tolerates that 750,000 deaths occur on the roads each year. Society has not yet come to terms with the added burden that urbanisation brings to developing countries. Pollution from the use of fossil fuels creates incalculable loss to the world's environment and to the health of its inhabitants. The misuse of chemicals provokes suffering and deformity. In the European Community alone, over 21 million tonnes of toxic waste have to be treated each year. Of course, there are different types of risk: individual and societal. Individuals continue to travel by air in defiance of terrorists or faulty machinery. Whilst society urges caution in diet and nutrition, the individual is probably more worried about food additives that he is about eating too much or making a rigorous appraisal of the value of his die!. As the conference progresses many people will die from the causes of malnutrition, from war or societal neglect while we, individually, will be more at risk from overeating. In other words, we perceive risks is in a multitude of ways. We tolerate these risks according to our perception of what we feel is acceptable without carrying out scientific assessment of the relative severity of those risks. If applied at a governmental level, this subjective tolerance can lead to unnecessary burdens or constraints that are disproportionate to the risk. Clearly, this is not acceptable for policy makers. We have just seen the closure of the UNCED World Conference on the Environment in Rio de Janeiro, where the absolute need for more effective cooperation in the protection of the environment and the world inhabitants was convincingly demonstrated. The European Communities already coordinate risk assessment with its twelve Member States in a large number of areas and is increasing its international cooperation. We have recognized that it is no longer possible to carry out effective risk assessment in one country alone or to

  17. Phase contrast MRI assessment of pedal blood flow

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Debatin, J.F.; Dalman, R.; Herfkens, R.J.; Harris, E.J.; Pelc, N.J.

    1995-01-01

    This study attempts to evaluate the reliability of cine phase contrast (PC) flow measurements in the assessment of normal pedal blood flow and quantitation of revascularisation-induced flow changes in patients with end-stage peripheral vascular occlusive disease (PVOD). Oblique axial cine-PC acquisitions were obtained on a 1.5 T MRI system at the level of the talotibial joints in 8 normal subjects on four separate occasions. Subsequently 8 patients with end-stage PVOD were examined before and after surgical revascularisation (bilateral, n = 2; unilateral, n = 6). Measured flow in the trifurcation vessels was highly variable among normal subjects. Total pedal flow ranged from 32 to 183 ml/min (mean 91 ml/min) and was significantly different between the subjects evaluated (P < 0.0001). Measurements in the same subject over time were considerably less variable (P < 0.005). Normal arterial flow patterns were consistently triphasic; those in patients with PVOD were either mono- or biphasic. Pedal flow measured by cine-PC in patients was reduced compared with normal subjects (mean 38.3 ml/min). Flow was slower in symptomatic limbs (26.7 ml/min) compared with asymptomatic ones (48.9 ml/min). Flow increases in revascularised limbs (mean 315%) were significantly different from those observed in non-affected limbs (P < 0.005). The ability to quantitate pedal blood flow and subsequent revascularisation-induced flow increases appears promising for the identification of optimal treatment options and monitoring of treatment results. (orig.)

  18. Improving Blood Monitoring of Enzymes as Biomarkers of Risk from Anticholinergic Pesticides and Chemical Warfare Agents

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Wilson, Barry W

    2006-01-01

    Blood biomarkers are an important way to monitor exposure to anticholinergic pesticides and chemical warfare agents and to establish whether some personnel are at greater risk than others from exposure...

  19. Improving Blood Monitoring of Enzymes as Biomarkers of Risk from Anticholinergic Pesticides and Chemical Warfare Agents

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Wilson, Barry W

    2005-01-01

    Blood biomarkers are an important way to monitor exposure to anticholinergic pesticides and chemical warfare agents and to establish whether some personnel are at greater risk than others from exposure...

  20. Ionizing radiation risk assessment, BEIR IV

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-10-01

    This report of the Subpanel discusses the potential impact on Federal agencies and indicates individual risk factors that could be used by them in risk assessment. The approach used in this CIRRPC report was to consider the risk factors presented in BEIR IV for each radionuclide (or group radioelements) and to make some judgments regarding their validity and/or the uncertainties involved. The coverage of Radon-222 and its progeny dominated the BEIR IV report and this Subpanel felt is was proper to devote more attention to this radionuclide family. This risk factor presented in BEIR IV for radon is 350 cancer deaths per million person-working level months (WLM) of exposure for a lifetime. There is a range of opinions on the conversion from WLM to absorbed dose. As discussed in the text, the use of the WLM concept makes it difficult or infeasible to compare the risk factor for radon with that of other radionuclides which are based on organ dose. This report also includes a discussion of certain fundamental scientific and operational issues that may have decisive effect upon risk factor selection. These adjunct items are dealt with under separate headings and include discussions of threshold dose considerations, extrapolation to low doses, and age at exposure