WorldWideScience

Sample records for risk assessment application

  1. Risk assessment theory, methods, and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Rausand, Marvin

    2011-01-01

    With its balanced coverage of theory and applications along with standards and regulations, Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications serves as a comprehensive introduction to the topic. The book serves as a practical guide to current risk analysis and risk assessment, emphasizing the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants and transportation systems. The author applies a uniform framework to the discussion of each method, setting forth clear objectives and descriptions, while also shedding light on applications, essential resources, and advantages and disadvantages. Following an introduction that provides an overview of risk assessment, the book is organized into two sections that outline key theory, methods, and applications. * Introduction to Risk Assessment defines key concepts and details the steps of a thorough risk assessment along with the necessary quantitative risk measures. Chapters outline...

  2. Application of epigenetic data in human health risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cote, Ila L; McCullough, Shaun D; Hines, Ronald N; Vandenberg, John J

    2017-11-06

    Despite the many recent advances in the field of epigenetics, application of this knowledge in environmental health risk assessment has been limited. In this paper, we identify opportunities for application of epigenetic data to support health risk assessment. We consider current applications and present a vision for the future.

  3. Probabilistic risk assessment methodology for risk management and regulatory applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    See Meng Wong; Kelly, D.L.; Riley, J.E.

    1997-01-01

    This paper discusses the development and potential applications of PRA methodology for risk management and regulatory applications in the U.S. nuclear industry. The new PRA methodology centers on the development of This paper discusses the time-dependent configuration risk profile for evaluating the effectiveness of operational risk management programs at U.S. nuclear power plants. Configuration-risk profiles have been used as risk-information tools for (1) a better understanding of the impact of daily operational activities on plant safety, and (2) proactive planning of operational activities to manage risk. Trial applications of the methodology were undertaken to demonstrate that configuration-risk profiles can be developed routinely, and can be useful for various industry and regulatory applications. Lessons learned include a better understanding of the issues and characteristics of PRA models available to industry, and identifying the attributes and pitfalls in the developement of risk profiles

  4. Risk assessment of power systems models, methods, and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Li, Wenyuan

    2014-01-01

    Risk Assessment of Power Systems addresses the regulations and functions of risk assessment with regard to its relevance in system planning, maintenance, and asset management. Brimming with practical examples, this edition introduces the latest risk information on renewable resources, the smart grid, voltage stability assessment, and fuzzy risk evaluation. It is a comprehensive reference of a highly pertinent topic for engineers, managers, and upper-level students who seek examples of risk theory applications in the workplace.

  5. Application of probabilistic risk assessment to reprocessing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perkins, W.C.

    1984-01-01

    The Savannah River Laboratory uses probabilistic methods of risk assessment in safety analyses of reprocessing facilities at the Savannah River Plant. This method uses both the probability of an accident and its consequence to calculate the risks from radiological, chemical, and industrial hazards. The three principal steps in such an assesment are identification of accidents, calculation of frequencies, and consequence quantification. The tools used at SRL include several databanks, logic tree methods, and computer-assisted methods for calculating both frequencies and consequences. 5 figures

  6. Risk assessment: tools, techniques, and their applications

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Ostrom, Lee T; Wilhelmsen, Cheryl A

    2012-01-01

    .... The central task of the risk assessor is predicting the success of a project. This includes isolating the entire spectrum of adverse events that can derail a project or threaten the health and safety of individuals, organizations, and the environment...

  7. Advancing Risk Assessment through the Application of Systems Toxicology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauer, John Michael; Kleensang, André; Peitsch, Manuel C.; Hayes, A. Wallace

    2016-01-01

    Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the probability of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from human activities. Mechanistic approaches to risk assessment have been generally referred to as systems toxicology. Systems toxicology makes use of advanced analytical and computational tools to integrate classical toxicology and quantitative analysis of large networks of molecular and functional changes occurring across multiple levels of biological organization. Three presentations including two case studies involving both in vitro and in vivo approaches described the current state of systems toxicology and the potential for its future application in chemical risk assessment. PMID:26977253

  8. Human Health Risk Assessment: A case study application of principles in dose response assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    This case study application workshop will build on fundamental concepts and techniques in risk assessment presented and archived at previous TRAC meeting workshops. Practical examples from publicly available, peer reviewed risk assessments will be used as teaching aids. Course ...

  9. Asset Identification for Security Risk Assessment in Web Applications

    OpenAIRE

    Hisham M. Haddad; Brunil D. Romero

    2009-01-01

    As software applications become more complex they require more security, allowing them to reach an appropriate level of quality to manage information, and therefore achieving business objectives. Web applications represent one segment of software industry where security risk assessment is essential. Web engineering must address new challenges to provide new techniques and tools that guarantee high quality application development. This work focuses asset identification, the initial step in sec...

  10. Quantitative Security Risk Assessment of Android Permissions and Applications

    OpenAIRE

    Wang , Yang; Zheng , Jun; Sun , Chen; Mukkamala , Srinivas

    2013-01-01

    Part 6: Mobile Computing; International audience; The booming of the Android platform in recent years has attracted the attention of malware developers. However, the permissions-based model used in Android system to prevent the spread of malware, has shown to be ineffective. In this paper, we propose DroidRisk, a framework for quantitative security risk assessment of both Android permissions and applications (apps) based on permission request patterns from benign apps and malware, which aims ...

  11. Offshore risk assessment principles, modelling and applications of QRA studies

    CERN Document Server

    Vinnem, Jan-Erik

    2007-01-01

    attempt has been made to capture the new trends in the regulations, to the extent they are known. There have over the last 10-15 years been published a few textbooks on risk assessment, most of them are devoted to relatively generic topics. Some are also focused on the risk management aspects, in general and with offshore applicability. None are known to address the needs and topics of the use of QRA studies by the offshore industry in particular. The present work is trying to bridge this gap. The use of QRA studies is somewhat special in Northern Europe, and par- cularly in Norway. The use of

  12. Approaches to quantitative risk assessment with applications to PP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Geiger, G.; Schaefer, A.

    2002-01-01

    Full text: Experience with accidents such as Goiania in Brazil and indications of a considerable number of orphan sources suggest that improved protection would be desirable for some types of radioactive material of wide-spread use such as radiation sources for civil purposes. Regarding large potential health and economic consequences (in particular, if terrorists attacks cannot be excluded), significant costs of preventive actions, and large uncertainties about both the likelihood of occurrence and the potential consequences of PP safety and security incidents, an optimum relationship between preventive and mitigative efforts is likely to be a key issue for successful risk management in this field. Thus, possible violations of physical protection combined with threats of misuse of nuclear materials, including terrorist attack, pose considerable challenges to global security from various perspectives. In view of these challenges, recent advance in applied risk and decision analysis suggests methodological and procedural improvements in quantitative risk assessment, the demarcation of acceptable risk, and risk management. Advance is based on a recently developed model of optimal risky choice suitable for assessing and comparing the cumulative probability distribution functions attached to safety and security risks. Besides quantification of risk (e. g., in economic terms), the standardization of various risk assessment models frequently used in operations research can be approached on this basis. The paper explores possible applications of these improved methods to the safety and security management of nuclear materials, cost efficiency of risk management measures, and the establishment international safety and security standards of PP. Examples will be presented that are based on selected scenarios of misuse involving typical radioactive sources. (author)

  13. Uncertainty analysis in the applications of nuclear probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Le Duy, T.D.

    2011-01-01

    The aim of this thesis is to propose an approach to model parameter and model uncertainties affecting the results of risk indicators used in the applications of nuclear Probabilistic Risk assessment (PRA). After studying the limitations of the traditional probabilistic approach to represent uncertainty in PRA model, a new approach based on the Dempster-Shafer theory has been proposed. The uncertainty analysis process of the proposed approach consists in five main steps. The first step aims to model input parameter uncertainties by belief and plausibility functions according to the data PRA model. The second step involves the propagation of parameter uncertainties through the risk model to lay out the uncertainties associated with output risk indicators. The model uncertainty is then taken into account in the third step by considering possible alternative risk models. The fourth step is intended firstly to provide decision makers with information needed for decision making under uncertainty (parametric and model) and secondly to identify the input parameters that have significant uncertainty contributions on the result. The final step allows the process to be continued in loop by studying the updating of beliefs functions given new data. The proposed methodology was implemented on a real but simplified application of PRA model. (author)

  14. Chemical Mixtures and Epidemiologic Fundamentals for Risk Assessment Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Risk management options are increasingly being considered early in the risk assessment process to help scope the considerations and bound the inherent complexities related to potential exposures, risk and future clean-up decisions (including acceptable pollutant levels) related t...

  15. Risk-Informed Assessment Methodology Development and Application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sung Goo Chi; Seok Jeong Park; Chul Jin Choi; Ritterbusch, S.E.; Jacob, M.C.

    2002-01-01

    Westinghouse Electric Company (WEC) has been working with Korea Power Engineering Company (KOPEC) on a US Department of Energy (DOE) sponsored Nuclear Energy Research Initiative (NERI) project through a collaborative agreement established for the domestic NERI program. The project deals with Risk-Informed Assessment (RIA) of regulatory and design requirements of future nuclear power plants. An objective of the RIA project is to develop a risk-informed design process, which focuses on identifying and incorporating advanced features into future nuclear power plants (NPPs) that would meet risk goals in a cost-effective manner. The RIA design methodology is proposed to accomplish this objective. This paper discusses the development of this methodology and demonstrates its application in the design of plant systems for future NPPs. Advanced conceptual plant systems consisting of an advanced Emergency Core Cooling System (ECCS) and Emergency Feedwater System (EFWS) for a NPP were developed and the risk-informed design process was exercised to demonstrate the viability and feasibility of the RIA design methodology. Best estimate Loss-of-Coolant Accident (LOCA) analyses were performed to validate the PSA success criteria for the NPP. The results of the analyses show that the PSA success criteria can be met using the advanced conceptual systems and that the RIA design methodology is a viable and appropriate means of designing key features of risk-significant NPP systems. (authors)

  16. Applications of the EBR-II Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roglans, J.: Ragland, W.A.; Hill, D.J.

    1993-01-01

    A Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) of the Experimental Breeder Reactor 11 (EBR-11), a Department of Energy (DOE) Category A research reactor, has recently been completed at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), and has been performed with close collaboration between PRA analysts and engineering and operations staff. A product of this Involvement of plant personnel has been a excellent acceptance of the PRA as a tool, which has already resulted In a variety of applications of the EBR-11 PRA. The EBR-11 has been used in support of plant hardware and procedure modifications and In new system design work. A new application in support of the refueling safety analysis will be completed in the near future

  17. Limited probabilistic risk assessment applications in plant backfitting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Desaedeleer, G.

    1987-01-01

    Plant backfitting programs are defined on the basis of deterministic (e.g. Systematic Evaluation Program) or probabilistic (e.g. Probabilistic Risk Assessment) approaches. Each approach provides valuable assets in defining the program and has its own advantages and disadvantages. Ideally one should combine the strong points of each approach. This chapter summarizes actual experience gained from combinations of deterministic and probabilistic approaches to define and implement PWR backfitting programs. Such combinations relate to limited applications of probabilistic techniques and are illustrated for upgrading fluid systems. These evaluations allow sound and rational optimization systems upgrade. However, the boundaries of the reliability analysis need to be clearly defined and system reliability may have to go beyond classical boundaries (e.g. identification of weak links in support systems). Also the implementation of upgrade on a system per system basis is not necessarily cost-effective. (author)

  18. HTGR containment design options: an application of probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1977-08-01

    Through the use of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), it is possible to quantitatively evaluate the radiological risk associated with a given reactor design and to place such risk into perspective with alternative designs. The merits are discussed for several containment alternatives for the HTGR from the viewpoints of economics and licensability, as well as public risk. The quantification of cost savings and public risk indicates that presently acceptable public risk can be maintained and cost savings of $40 million can result from use of a vented confinement for the HTGR

  19. Risk assessment techniques with applicability in marine engineering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudenko, E.; Panaitescu, F. V.; Panaitescu, M.

    2015-11-01

    Nowadays risk management is a carefully planned process. The task of risk management is organically woven into the general problem of increasing the efficiency of business. Passive attitude to risk and awareness of its existence are replaced by active management techniques. Risk assessment is one of the most important stages of risk management, since for risk management it is necessary first to analyze and evaluate risk. There are many definitions of this notion but in general case risk assessment refers to the systematic process of identifying the factors and types of risk and their quantitative assessment, i.e. risk analysis methodology combines mutually complementary quantitative and qualitative approaches. Purpose of the work: In this paper we will consider as risk assessment technique Fault Tree analysis (FTA). The objectives are: understand purpose of FTA, understand and apply rules of Boolean algebra, analyse a simple system using FTA, FTA advantages and disadvantages. Research and methodology: The main purpose is to help identify potential causes of system failures before the failures actually occur. We can evaluate the probability of the Top event.The steps of this analize are: the system's examination from Top to Down, the use of symbols to represent events, the use of mathematical tools for critical areas, the use of Fault tree logic diagrams to identify the cause of the Top event. Results: In the finally of study it will be obtained: critical areas, Fault tree logical diagrams and the probability of the Top event. These results can be used for the risk assessment analyses.

  20. Seismic risk assessment and application in the central United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Z.

    2011-01-01

    Seismic risk is a somewhat subjective, but important, concept in earthquake engineering and other related decision-making. Another important concept that is closely related to seismic risk is seismic hazard. Although seismic hazard and seismic risk have often been used interchangeably, they are fundamentally different: seismic hazard describes the natural phenomenon or physical property of an earthquake, whereas seismic risk describes the probability of loss or damage that could be caused by a seismic hazard. The distinction between seismic hazard and seismic risk is of practical significance because measures for seismic hazard mitigation may differ from those for seismic risk reduction. Seismic risk assessment is a complicated process and starts with seismic hazard assessment. Although probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is the most widely used method for seismic hazard assessment, recent studies have found that PSHA is not scientifically valid. Use of PSHA will lead to (1) artifact estimates of seismic risk, (2) misleading use of the annual probability of exccedance (i.e., the probability of exceedance in one year) as a frequency (per year), and (3) numerical creation of extremely high ground motion. An alternative approach, which is similar to those used for flood and wind hazard assessments, has been proposed. ?? 2011 ASCE.

  1. Qualitative risk assessment: a conceptual context and three diverse applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elsea, K.J.; Conger, D.S.

    1992-01-01

    Risk is defined as the probability of an occurrence multiplied by the consequences of that occurrence. Such a definition implies a quantitative or at least a mathematical operation. However, qualitative uses of risk have proved useful tools in incident investigation and management decision making. This paper provides a conceptual context for qualitative risk assessment and discusses three efforts at subject organizations [an aerospace firm, a US Department of Energy weapons-related facility, and a commercial nuclear reactor] that have applied qualitative risk techniques for different uses and with different results. A lessons-learned section summarizes and provides future direction

  2. Development of risk assessment methodology applicable to radioactive waste isolation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Campbell, J.E.; McGrath, P.E.; Cullingford, M.C.

    1978-01-01

    The risk from radioactive waste disposal in a deep geologic formation has not yet been completely assessed. A complete assessment should include credible estimates of the likelihood that radioactive materials would escape the repository and enter the human environment, and the magnitude of the resultant consequences in terms of human health effects. In addition, such an assessment should identify the dominant contributors to risk and, to the extent possible, quantify the uncertainties in risk estimates. A complete risk assessment may not be possible because of our limited knowledge of various aspects of geology and hydrogeology important to the long-term safety of a radioactive waste repository. The results of past analyses are not entirely consistent, perhaps as a direct result of the limited knowledge of the phenomena involved. It may, therefore, seem premature to attempt a rigorous risk analysis of radioactive waste disposal in deep, geologic media at the present time. However, the value of such analyses lies more in the insight and information they provide than in their prediction of absolute levels of risk

  3. Online application of a risk management system for risk assessment and monitoring at NPPs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Jun, E-mail: youngjun51@hotmail.com [Key Laboratory of Fundamental Science on Nuclear Safety and Simulation Technology, Harbin Engineering University (China); Yang, Ming, E-mail: yangming@hrbeu.edu.cn [Key Laboratory of Fundamental Science on Nuclear Safety and Simulation Technology, Harbin Engineering University (China); Wang, Wenlin, E-mail: wlwang0618@126.com [Key Laboratory of Fundamental Science on Nuclear Safety and Simulation Technology, Harbin Engineering University (China); Li, Fengjun, E-mail: leefengjun@163.com [China Nuclear Power Engineering Co. Ltd (China)

    2016-08-15

    Highlights: • A generic GO-FLOW modeling structure is proposed for easily Living PSA development and analysis. • Hierarchical and modularized scheme is applied in the development of Living PSA models and database. • A risk management system is developed by GO-FLOW method. • Functional testing is conducted on the risk management system for performance evaluation. • The fast solution time derived from Living PSA application is supportive in plant safety management. - Abstract: The paper presents a risk management system on the basis of Living PSA models which are developed under a proposed generic GO-FLOW modeling method with a hierarchical and modular structure. The design of the risk management system is aiming at assisting plant personnel to manage maintenance plan and system configuration, and conduct system reliability monitoring, risk monitoring and risk management quickly and conveniently through graphical user interfaces without going deep into the details of building, updating and analyzing reliability and risk models. The performance of the proposed risk management system was tested on a full-scale simulator of PWR nuclear power plant and demonstrated that the fast solution time derived from utilization of hierarchical and modularized Living PSA models is strongly supportive for instantaneous risk assessment as well as for daily risk management at NPPs.

  4. 1,3-Butadiene: Biomarkers and application to risk assessment

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Swenberg, J. A.; Bordeerat, N. K.; Boysen, G.; Carro, S.; Georgieva, N. I.; Troutman, J. M.; Upton, P. B.; Albertini, R. J.; Vacek, P. M.; Walker, V. E.; Šrám, Radim; Goggin, M.; Tretyakova, N.

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 192, 1-2 (2011), s. 150-154 ISSN 0009-2797 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z50390512 Keywords : risk assessment * 1,3-butadiene * occupational exposure Subject RIV: DN - Health Impact of the Environment Quality Impact factor: 2.865, year: 2011

  5. Data on application frequency of pesticide for risk assessment purposes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Drooge, H.L. van; Groeneveld, C.N.; Schipper, H.J.

    2001-01-01

    In risk assessment, information from toxicity studies is combined with information on worker exposure. In general, agricultural practice implies long-term intermittent exposure to various pesticides. This issue can only be addressed when sufficient information exist, on exposure regimes. Patterns of

  6. Risk management on nuclear power plant. Application of probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kojima, Shigeo

    2003-01-01

    In U.S.A., nuclear safety regulation is moving to risk-informed regulation (RIR), so necessity of a standard to provide contents of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) constructing its roots has been discussed for a long time. In 1998, the Committee on Nuclear Risk Management (CNRM) of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) began to investigate the standard, of which last edition was published as the Standard for Probabilistic Risk Management for Nuclear Power Plant Applications: RA-S-2002 (PRMA) on April, 2002. As in the Committee, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), electric power companies, national institutes, PRA specialists, and so on took parts to carry out many discussions with full energies of participants on risk management in U.S.A., the standard was finished after about four years' efforts. In U.S.A., risk management having already used PRA is successfully practiced, U.S.A. is at a stage with more advancing steps of the risk management than Japan is. Here was described on the standard of PRA and a concrete method of the risk management carried out at nuclear power stations. (G.K.)

  7. Risk assessment of hazardous waste transport - perspectives of GIS application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lazar, R.E.; Dumitrescu, M.; Stefanescu, I.

    2001-01-01

    Due to the increasing public awareness of the potential risks associated with waste transport, the environmental impact assessment of this activity has become an issue of major importance. This paper presents a project proposal, which can establish a national action plan for waste transport evaluation. Such a programme is sustained by the necessity to obtain an adequate method for the rapid and efficient estimation of individual and social risks due to the transport of hazardous substances in Romania. The main objective is to develop regional strategies for risk assessment in comprising: establishing the areas that must be investigated and their particular characteristics; identifying the transport activities in the areas; determining hazards; establishing the analysis criteria and prioritizing the study areas; evaluating continuous emissions; studying major accidents; studying population health; classifying the risks; establishing regional strategies; implementing political and regulatory measures. The project expectation is to provide a decision tool for risk managers and authorities in order to control or limit transportation and the storage of hazardous substances.(author)

  8. Interfacing system LOCA risk assessment: Methodology and application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Galyean, W.J.; Schroeher, J.A.; Hanson, D.J.

    1991-01-01

    The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is sponsoring a research program to develop an improved understanding of the human factors hardware, and accident consequence issues that dominate the risk from an Interfacing Systems Loss-of-Coolant Accident (ISLOCA) at a nuclear power plant. To accomplish this program, a methodology has been developed for estimating the core damage frequency and risk associated with an ISLOCA. The steps of the methodology are described with emphasis on one step which is unique, estimation of the probability of rupture of the low pressure systems. A trial application of the methodology was made for a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR). The results are believed to be plant specific and indicate that human errors during startup and shutdown could be significant contributors to ISLOCA risk at the plant evaluated. 10 refs

  9. Application of Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic Models in Chemical Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moiz Mumtaz

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Post-exposure risk assessment of chemical and environmental stressors is a public health challenge. Linking exposure to health outcomes is a 4-step process: exposure assessment, hazard identification, dose response assessment, and risk characterization. This process is increasingly adopting “in silico” tools such as physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK models to fine-tune exposure assessments and determine internal doses in target organs/tissues. Many excellent PBPK models have been developed. But most, because of their scientific sophistication, have found limited field application—health assessors rarely use them. Over the years, government agencies, stakeholders/partners, and the scientific community have attempted to use these models or their underlying principles in combination with other practical procedures. During the past two decades, through cooperative agreements and contracts at several research and higher education institutions, ATSDR funded translational research has encouraged the use of various types of models. Such collaborative efforts have led to the development and use of transparent and user-friendly models. The “human PBPK model toolkit” is one such project. While not necessarily state of the art, this toolkit is sufficiently accurate for screening purposes. Highlighted in this paper are some selected examples of environmental and occupational exposure assessments of chemicals and their mixtures.

  10. Recurrence models of volcanic events: Applications to volcanic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crowe, B.M.; Picard, R.; Valentine, G.; Perry, F.V.

    1992-01-01

    An assessment of the risk of future volcanism has been conducted for isolation of high-level radioactive waste at the potential Yucca Mountain site in southern Nevada. Risk used in this context refers to a combined assessment of the probability and consequences of future volcanic activity. Past studies established bounds on the probability of magmatic disruption of a repository. These bounds were revised as additional data were gathered from site characterization studies. The probability of direct intersection of a potential repository located in an eight km 2 area of Yucca Mountain by ascending basalt magma was bounded by the range of 10 -8 to 10 -10 yr -1 2 . The consequences of magmatic disruption of a repository were estimated in previous studies to be limited. The exact releases from such an event are dependent on the strike of an intruding basalt dike relative to the repository geometry, the timing of the basaltic event relative to the age of the radioactive waste and the mechanisms of release and dispersal of the waste radionuclides in the accessible environment. The combined low probability of repository disruption and the limited releases associated with this event established the basis for the judgement that the risk of future volcanism was relatively low. It was reasoned that that risk of future volcanism was not likely to result in disqualification of the potential Yucca Mountain site

  11. Survey and evaluation of aging risk assessment methods and applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanzo, D.; Kvam, P.; Apostolakis, G.; Wu, J.; Milici, T.; Ghoniem, N.; Guarro, S.

    1994-11-01

    The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission initiated the nuclear power plant aging research program about 6 years ago to gather information about nuclear power plant aging. Since then, this program has collected a significant amount of information, largely qualitative, on plant aging and its potential effects on plant safety. However, this body of knowledge has not yet been integrated into formalisms that can be used effectively and systematically to assess plant risk resulting from aging, although models for assessing the effect of increasing failure rates on core damage frequency have been proposed. This report surveys the work on the aging of systems, structures, and components (SSCs) of nuclear power plants, as well as associated data bases. We take a critical look at the need to revise probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) so that they will include the contribution to risk from plant aging, the adequacy of existing methods for evaluating this contribution, and the adequacy of the data that have been used in these evaluation methods. We identify a preliminary framework for integrating the aging of SSCs into the PRA and include the identification of necessary data for such an integration

  12. Estimation of Uncertainty in Risk Assessment of Hydrogen Applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Markert, Frank; Krymsky, V.; Kozine, Igor

    2011-01-01

    Hydrogen technologies such as hydrogen fuelled vehicles and refuelling stations are being tested in practice in a number of projects (e.g. HyFleet-Cute and Whistler project) giving valuable information on the reliability and maintenance requirements. In order to establish refuelling stations the ...... probability and the NUSAP concept to quantify uncertainties of new not fully qualified hydrogen technologies and implications to risk management.......Hydrogen technologies such as hydrogen fuelled vehicles and refuelling stations are being tested in practice in a number of projects (e.g. HyFleet-Cute and Whistler project) giving valuable information on the reliability and maintenance requirements. In order to establish refuelling stations...... the permitting authorities request qualitative and quantitative risk assessments (QRA) to show the safety and acceptability in terms of failure frequencies and respective consequences. For new technologies not all statistical data might be established or are available in good quality causing assumptions...

  13. Application of probabilistic risk assessment methodology to fusion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Piet, S.J.

    1985-07-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) tools are applied to general fusion issues in a systematic way, generally qualitatively. The potential value of PRA to general fusion safety and economic issues is discussed. Several important design insights result: possible fault interactions must be minimized (decouple fault conditions), inherently safe designs must include provision for passively handling loss of site power and loss of coolant conditions, the reliability of the vacuum boundary appears vital to maximizing facility availabilty and minimizing safety risk, and economic analyses appear to be incomplete without consideration of potential availability loss from forced outrages. A modification to PRA formalism is introduced, called the fault interaction matrix. The fault interaction matrix contains information concerning what initial fault condition could lead to other fault conditions and with what frequency. Thus, the fault interaction matrix represents a way to present and measure the degree to which a designer has decoupled possible fault conditions in his design

  14. Internal dosimetry hazard and risk assessments: methods and applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roberts, G.A.

    2006-01-01

    Routine internal dose exposures are typically (in the UK nuclear industry) less than external dose exposures: however, the costs of internal dosimetry monitoring programmes can be significantly greater than those for external dosimetry. For this reason decisions on when to apply routine monitoring programmes, and the nature of these programmes, can be more critical than for external dosimetry programmes. This paper describes various methods for performing hazard and risk assessments which are being developed by RWE NUKEM Limited Approved Dosimetry Services to provide an indication when routine internal dosimetry monitoring should be considered. (author)

  15. Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    How the EPA conducts risk assessment to protect human health and the environment. Several assessments are included with the guidelines, models, databases, state-based RSL Tables, local contacts and framework documents used to perform these assessments.

  16. The application of probabilistic risk assessment to a LLW incinerator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, K.K.; Huang, F.T.

    1993-01-01

    The 100 Kg/hr low-level radioactive waste (LLW) incinerator and the 1,500 ton supercompactor are two main vehicles in the Taiwan Power Company's Volume Reduction Center. Since the hot test of the incinerator in mid 1990, various problems associated with the original design and operating procedures were encountered. During the early stages of putting an incinerator in service, the modification and fine-tuning of the system would help future reliable operations. The probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) method was introduced to evaluate the interaction between potential system failure and its environmental impact and further help diagnose the system defects initially. The draft Level 1 system analysis was completed and the event and fault trees were constructed. Qualitatively, this approach is useful for preventing the system failure from occurring. However, Levels 2 and 3 analysis can only be done when sufficient data become available in the future

  17. Applicability of the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) to LMFBR risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El-Sheikh, K.A.; Feller, K.G.; Fleischer, L.; Greebler, P.; McDonald, A.; Sultan, P.; Temme, M.I.; Fullwood, R.R.

    1976-01-01

    The feasibility of applying the WASH-1400 methods and data to LMFBR risk assessment is evaluated using the following approach for a selected LMFBR: (1) Structuring the LMFBR risk assessment problem in a modular form similar to WASH-1400; (2) Comparing the predictive tools applicable to each module; (3) Comparing the dependencies among the various modules. It is concluded that the WASH-1400 applicability is limited due to LWR-LMFBR differences in operating environments and accident phenomena. WASH-1400 and LMFBR specific methods applicable to LMFBR risk assessments are indicated

  18. Application of the Beck model to stock markets: Value-at-Risk and portfolio risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozaki, M.; Sato, A.-H.

    2008-02-01

    We apply the Beck model, developed for turbulent systems that exhibit scaling properties, to stock markets. Our study reveals that the Beck model elucidates the properties of stock market returns and is applicable to practical use such as the Value-at-Risk estimation and the portfolio analysis. We perform empirical analysis with daily/intraday data of the S&P500 index return and find that the volatility fluctuation of real markets is well-consistent with the assumptions of the Beck model: The volatility fluctuates at a much larger time scale than the return itself and the inverse of variance, or “inverse temperature”, β obeys Γ-distribution. As predicted by the Beck model, the distribution of returns is well-fitted by q-Gaussian distribution of Tsallis statistics. The evaluation method of Value-at-Risk (VaR), one of the most significant indicators in risk management, is studied for q-Gaussian distribution. Our proposed method enables the VaR evaluation in consideration of tail risk, which is underestimated by the variance-covariance method. A framework of portfolio risk assessment under the existence of tail risk is considered. We propose a multi-asset model with a single volatility fluctuation shared by all assets, named the single β model, and empirically examine the agreement between the model and an imaginary portfolio with Dow Jones indices. It turns out that the single β model gives good approximation to portfolios composed of the assets with non-Gaussian and correlated returns.

  19. Application of database management software to probabilistic risk assessment calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wyss, G.D.

    1993-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) calculations require the management and processing of large amounts of information. This data normally falls into two general categories. For example, a commercial nuclear power plant PRA study makes use of plant blueprints and system schematics, formal plant safety analysis reports, incident reports, letters, memos, handwritten notes from plant visits, and even the analyst's ''engineering judgment''. This information must be documented and cross-referenced in order to properly execute and substantiate the models used in a PRA study. The first category is composed of raw data that is accumulated from equipment testing and operational experiences. These data describe the equipment, its service or testing conditions, its failure mode, and its performance history. The second category is composed of statistical distributions. These distributions can represent probabilities, frequencies, or values of important parameters that are not time-related. Probability and frequency distributions are often obtained by fitting raw data to an appropriate statistical distribution. Database management software is used to store both types of data so that it can be readily queried, manipulated, and archived. This paper provides an overview of the information models used for storing PRA data and illustrates the implementation of these models using examples from current PRA software packages

  20. Evolving PBPK applications in regulatory risk assessment: current situation and future goals

    Science.gov (United States)

    The presentation includes current applications of PBPK modeling in regulatory risk assessment and discussions on conflicts between assuring consistency with experimental data in current situation and the desire for animal-free model development.

  1. Application of risk assessment techniques to 'major hazard' pipelines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cox, R A

    1982-12-01

    A risk analysis for a hazardous-material pipeline (carrying LPG, ammonia, or high-pressure gas) is presented. The analysis gives results in a form that will assist the decisionmaker in pipeline planning and route selection. The large inventory of hazardous materials in such pipelines means that risks exist even though the accident record of pipeline transportation compares favorably with that for competing modes of transport. Risk analysis techniques - commonly used in the civil aviation, nuclear, and process industries - can be equally well applied to pipelines and can produce results that not only give a measure of the risk but also indicate the principal sources of risk and possible areas for improvement. A number of pipeline risk analyses have demonstrated the viability of the technique and its usefulness as an aid to practical engineering in design, planning, and maintenance/repair phases.

  2. The application of probabilistic risk assessment to inherently safe reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cave, L.; Kastenberg, W.E.

    1987-01-01

    In the development of safety goals and design criteria for 'inherently safe' reactors a question which arises is 'To what extent is PRA relevant.' To answer this question it is necessary to consider both the risk to the public and the investment risk to the utility. In this paper the factors which are likely to determine safety objectives and their allocation are presented. (orig.)

  3. Application of Risk Assessment Tools in the Continuous Risk Management (CRM) Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ray, Paul S.

    2002-01-01

    Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is currently implementing the Continuous Risk Management (CRM) Program developed by the Carnegie Mellon University and recommended by NASA as the Risk Management (RM) implementation approach. The four most frequently used risk assessment tools in the center are: (a) Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA), Hazard Analysis (HA), Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), and Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA). There are some guidelines for selecting the type of risk assessment tools during the project formulation phase of a project, but there is not enough guidance as to how to apply these tools in the Continuous Risk Management process (CRM). But the ways the safety and risk assessment tools are used make a significant difference in the effectiveness in the risk management function. Decisions regarding, what events are to be included in the analysis, to what level of details should the analysis be continued, make significant difference in the effectiveness of risk management program. Tools of risk analysis also depends on the phase of a project e.g. at the initial phase of a project, when not much data are available on hardware, standard FMEA cannot be applied; instead a functional FMEA may be appropriate. This study attempted to provide some directives to alleviate the difficulty in applying FTA, PRA, and FMEA in the CRM process. Hazard Analysis was not included in the scope of the study due to the short duration of the summer research project.

  4. Application of Fuzzy Logic in Oral Cancer Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scrobotă, Ioana; Băciuț, Grigore; Filip, Adriana Gabriela; Todor, Bianca; Blaga, Florin; Băciuț, Mihaela Felicia

    2017-05-01

    The mapping of the malignization mechanism is still incomplete, but oxidative stress is strongly correlated to carcinogenesis. In our research, using fuzzy logic, we aimed to estimate the oxidative stress related-cancerization risk of the oral potentially malignant disorders. Serum from 16 patients diagnosed (clinical and histopathological) with oral potentially malignant disorders (Dept. of Cranio-Maxillofacial Surgery and Radiology, "Iuliu Hațieganu" University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Cluj Napoca, Romania) was processed fluorometric for malondialdehyde and proton donors assays (Dept. of Physiology,"Iuliu Hațieganu" University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Cluj-Napoca, Romania). The values were used as inputs, they were associated linguistic terms using MIN-MAX method and 25 IF-THEN inference rules were generated to estimate the output value, the cancerization risk appreciated on a scale from 1 to 10 - IF malondialdehyde is very high and donors protons are very low THEN the cancer risk is reaching the maximum value (Dept. of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Managerial and Technological Engineering, University of Oradea, Oradea, Romania) (2012-2014). We estimated the cancerization risk of the oral potentially malignant disorders by implementing the multi-criteria decision support system based on serum malondialdehyde and proton donors' values. The risk was estimated as a concrete numerical value on a scale from 1 to 10 depending on the input numerical/linguistic value. The multi-criteria decision support system proposed by us, integrated into a more complex computerized decision support system, could be used as an important aid in oral cancer screening and establish future medical decision in oral potentially malignant disorders.

  5. Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kinchin, G.H.

    1983-01-01

    After defining risk and introducing the concept of individual and societal risk, the author considers each of these, restricting considerations to risk of death. Some probabilities of death arising from various causes are quoted, and attention drawn to the care necessary in making comparisons between sets of data and to the distinction between voluntary and involuntary categories and between early and delayed deaths. The presentation of information on societal risk is discussed and examples given. The history of quantified risk assessment is outlined, particularly related to the nuclear industry, the process of assessing risk discussed: identification of hazard causes, the development of accident chains and the use of event trees, the evaluation of probability through the collection of data and their use with fault trees, and the assessment of consequences of hazards in terms of fatalities. Reference is made to the human element and common-made failures, and to studies supporting the development of reliability assessment techniques. Acceptance criteria are discussed for individual and societal risk in the nuclear field, and it is shown that proposed criteria lead to risks conservative by comparison with risks from day-to-day accidents and other potentially hazardous industries. (U.K.)

  6. Applications of nuclear safety probabilistic risk assessment to nuclear security for optimized risk mitigation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Donnelly, S.K.; Harvey, S.B. [Amec Foster Wheeler, Toronto, Ontario (Canada)

    2016-06-15

    Critical infrastructure assets such as nuclear power generating stations are potential targets for malevolent acts. Probabilistic methodologies can be applied to evaluate the real-time security risk based upon intelligence and threat levels. By employing this approach, the application of security forces and other protective measures can be optimized. Existing probabilistic safety analysis (PSA) methodologies and tools employed. in the nuclear industry can be adapted to security applications for this purpose. Existing PSA models can also be adapted and enhanced to consider total plant risk, due to nuclear safety risks as well as security risks. By creating a Probabilistic Security Model (PSM), safety and security practitioners can maximize the safety and security of the plant while minimizing the significant costs associated with security upgrades and security forces. (author)

  7. Application of probabilistic quantitative ecological risk assessment to radiological dose

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Twining, J.; Ferris, J.; Copplestone, D.; Zinger, I.

    2004-01-01

    Probabilistic ERA is becoming more accepted and applied in evaluations of environmental impacts worldwide. In a previous paper we have shown that the process can be applied in practice to routine effluent releases from a nuclear facility. However, there are practical issues that need to be addressed prior to its regulatory application for criteria setting or for site-specific ERA. Among these issues are a) appropriate data selection for both exposure and dose-response input, because there is a need to carefully characterise and filter the available dose-response data for its ecological relevance, b) A coherent approach is required to the choice of exposure scenarios, and c) there are various questions associated with treatment of exposure to mixed nuclides. In this paper we will evaluate and discuss aspects of these issues, using an illustrative case study approach. (author)

  8. Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Hrdová, Edita

    2012-01-01

    This diploma thesis is focused on companies risk evaluation before endorsement of Loan deriving from business relationships. The aim of this thesis is not only to describe individual steps of risk assessment, but also perfom analysis of particular companies based on available data, i.e. Balance sheet, Profit and Loss statement and external rating and after that propose solution for each company. My analysis will be based on theoretical knowledge, further on experience related to my job role a...

  9. Risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Liselotte; Rasmussen, Kirsten; Elsass, Peter

    2010-01-01

    International research suggests that using formalized risk assessment methods may improve the predictive validity of professionals' predictions of risk of future violence. This study presents data on forensic psychiatric patients discharged from a forensic unit in Denmark in year 2001-2002 (n=107...... and the individual dynamic items strengthen the use of this scheme in clinical practice. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved) (journal abstract)...

  10. How information resources are used by federal agencies in risk assessment application: Rapporteur summary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fenner-Crisp, P. [Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC (United States)

    1990-12-31

    The application of information available for risk assessment from the federal perspective is described. Different federal agencies conduct varying degrees of hazard evaluation, and some also generate empirical data. The role of the Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry in hazard assessments of potential public health impacts of Superfund sites includes identification of the 275 most significant substances. ATSDR is responsible for preparing toxicological profiles. ATSDR also identifies data gaps and needs critical to adequately assessing human health impacts.

  11. Innovative probabilistic risk assessment applications: barrier impairments and fracture toughness. Panel Discussion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Osterman, Michael; Root, Steven; Li, F.; Modarres, Mohammad; Reinhart, F. Mark; Bradley, Biff; Calhoun, David J.

    2001-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: New probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) applications promise to improve the overall safety and efficiency of nuclear plant operations. This discussion will explore the use of PRA in evaluating barrier integrity with respect to the consequences of natural phenomena such as tornadoes, floods, and harsh environments. Additionally, the session will explore proposals to improve fracture toughness techniques using PRA. (authors)

  12. [The application of two occupation health risk assessment models in a wooden furniture manufacturing industry].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, A H; Leng, P B; Bian, G L; Li, X H; Mao, G C; Zhang, M B

    2016-10-20

    Objective: To explore the applicability of 2 different models of occupational health risk assessment in wooden furniture manufacturing industry. Methods: American EPA inhalation risk model and ICMM model of occupational health risk assessment were conducted to assess occupational health risk in a small wooden furniture enterprises, respectively. Results: There was poor protective measure and equipment of occupational disease in the plant. The concentration of wood dust in the air of two workshops was over occupational exposure limit (OEL) , and the C TWA was 8.9 mg/m 3 and 3.6 mg/m 3 , respectively. According to EPA model, the workers who exposed to benzene in this plant had high risk (9.7×10 -6 ~34.3×10 -6 ) of leukemia, and who exposed to formaldehyde had high risk (11.4 × 10 -6 ) of squamous cell carcinoma. There were inconsistent evaluation results using the ICMM tools of standard-based matrix and calculated risk rating. There were very high risks to be attacked by rhinocarcinoma of the workers who exposed to wood dust for the tool of calculated risk rating, while high risk for the tool of standard-based matrix. For the workers who exposed to noise, risk of noise-induced deafness was unacceptable and medium risk using two tools, respectively. Conclusion: Both EPA model and ICMM model can appropriately predict and assessthe occupational health risk in wooden furniture manufactory, ICMM due to the relatively simple operation, easy evaluation parameters, assessment of occupational - disease - inductive factors comprehensively, and more suitable for wooden furniture production enterprise.

  13. Fuzzy hierarchical model for risk assessment principles, concepts, and practical applications

    CERN Document Server

    Chan, Hing Kai

    2013-01-01

    Risk management is often complicated by situational uncertainties and the subjective preferences of decision makers. Fuzzy Hierarchical Model for Risk Assessment introduces a fuzzy-based hierarchical approach to solve risk management problems considering both qualitative and quantitative criteria to tackle imprecise information.   This approach is illustrated through number of case studies using examples from the food, fashion and electronics sectors to cover a range of applications including supply chain management, green product design and green initiatives. These practical examples explore how this method can be adapted and fine tuned to fit other industries as well.   Supported by an extensive literature review, Fuzzy Hierarchical Model for Risk Assessment  comprehensively introduces a new method for project managers across all industries as well as researchers in risk management.

  14. Risk assessment of major hazards and its application in urban planning: a case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Yafei; Liu, Mao

    2012-03-01

    With the rapid development of industry in China, the number of establishments that are proposed or under construction is increasing year by year, and many are industries that handle flammable, explosive, toxic, harmful, and dangerous substances. Accidents such as fire, explosion, and toxic diffusion inevitably happen. Accidents resulting from these major hazards in cities cause a large number of casualties and property losses. It is increasingly important to analyze the risk of major hazards in cities realistically and to suitably plan and utilize the surrounding land based on the risk analysis results, thereby reducing the hazards. A theoretical system for risk assessment of major hazards in cities is proposed in this article, and the major hazard risk for the entire city is analyzed quantitatively. Risks of various major accidents are considered together, superposition effect is analyzed, individual risk contours of the entire city are drawn out, and the level of risk in the city is assessed using "as low as reasonably practicable" guidelines. After the entire city's individual risk distribution is obtained, risk zones are divided according to corresponding individual risk value of HSE, and land-use planning suggestions are proposed. Finally, a city in China is used as an example to illustrate the risk assessment process of the city's major hazard and its application in urban land-use planning. The proposed method has a certain theoretical and practical significance in establishing and improving risk analysis of major hazard and urban land-use planning. On the one hand, major urban public risk is avoided; further, the land is utilized in the best possible way in order to obtain the maximum benefit from its use. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  15. Improving the applicability of (Q)SARs for percutaneous penetration in regulatory risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouwman, T; Cronin, M T D; Bessems, J G M; van de Sandt, J J M

    2008-04-01

    The new regulatory framework REACH (Registration, Evaluation, and Authorisation of Chemicals) foresees the use of non-testing approaches, such as read-across, chemical categories, structure-activity relationships (SARs) and quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSARs). Although information on skin absorption data are not a formal requirement under REACH, data on dermal absorption are an integral part of risk assessment of substances/products to which man is predominantly exposed via the dermal route. In this study, we assess the present applicability of publicly available QSARs on skin absorption for risk assessment purposes. We explicitly did not aim to give scientific judgments on individual QSARs. A total of 33 QSARs selected from the public domain were evaluated using the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) Principles for the Validation of (Q)SAR Models. Additionally, several pragmatic criteria were formulated to select QSARs that are most suitable for their use in regulatory risk assessment. Based on these criteria, four QSARs were selected. The predictivity of these QSARs was evaluated by comparing their outcomes with experimentally derived skin absorption data (for 62 compounds). The predictivity was low for three of four QSARs, whereas one model gave reasonable predictions. Several suggestions are made to increase the applicability of QSARs for skin absorption for risk assessment purposes.

  16. [Application of occupational hazard risk index model in occupational health risk assessment in a decorative coating manufacturing enterprises].

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, P L; Zhao, C X; Dong, Q Y; Hao, S B; Xu, P; Zhang, J; Li, J G

    2018-01-20

    Objective: To evaluate the occupational health risk of decorative coating manufacturing enterprises and to explore the applicability of occupational hazard risk index model in the health risk assessment, so as to provide basis for the health management of enterprises. Methods: A decorative coating manufacturing enterprise in Hebei Province was chosen as research object, following the types of occupational hazards and contact patterns, the occupational hazard risk index model was used to evaluate occupational health risk factors of occupational hazards in the key positions of the decorative coating manufacturing enterprise, and measured with workplace test results and occupational health examination. Results: The positions of oily painters, water-borne painters, filling workers and packers who contacted noise were moderate harm. And positions of color workers who contacted chromic acid salts, oily painters who contacted butyl acetate were mild harm. Other positions were harmless. The abnormal rate of contacting noise in physical examination results was 6.25%, and the abnormality was not checked by other risk factors. Conclusion: The occupational hazard risk index model can be used in the occupational health risk assessment of decorative coating manufacturing enterprises, and noise was the key harzard among occupational harzards in this enterprise.

  17. Applicability of the Existing CVD Risk Assessment Tools to Type II Diabetics in Oman: A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdulhakeem Al-Rawahi

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Patients with type II diabetes (T2DM have an elevated risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD, and it is considered to be a leading cause of morbidity and premature mortality in these patients. Many traditional risk factors such as age, male sex, hypertension, dyslipidemia, glycemic control, diabetes duration, renal dysfunction, obesity, and smoking have been studied and identified as independent factors for CVD. Quantifying the risk of CVD among diabetics using the common risk factors in order to plan the treatment and preventive measures is important in the management of these patients as recommended by many clinical guidelines. Therefore, several risk assessment tools have been developed in different parts of the world for this purpose. These include the tools that have been developed for general populations and considered T2DM as a risk factor, and the tools that have been developed for T2DM populations specifically. However, due to the differences in sociodemographic factors and lifestyle patterns, as well as the differences in the distribution of various CVD risk factors in different diabetic populations, the external applicability of these tools on different populations is questionable. This review aims to address the applicability of the existing CVD risk models to the Omani diabetic population.

  18. Application of probabilistic risk assessment in nuclear and environmental licensing processes of nuclear reactors in Brazil

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mata, Jonatas F.C. da; Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Mesquita, Amir Z., E-mail: jonatasfmata@yahoo.com.br, E-mail: vasconv@cdtn.br, E-mail: amir@cdtn.br [Centro de Desenvolvimento da Tecnologia Nuclear (CDTN/CNEN-MG), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil)

    2015-07-01

    The nuclear accident at Fukushima Daiichi, occurred in Japan in 2011, brought reflections, worldwide, on the management of nuclear and environmental licensing processes of existing nuclear reactors. One of the key lessons learned in this matter, is that the studies of Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Severe Accidents are becoming essential, even in the early stage of a nuclear development project. In Brazil, Brazilian Nuclear Energy Commission, CNEN, conducts the nuclear licensing. The organism responsible for the environmental licensing is Brazilian Institute of Environment and Renewable Natural Resources, IBAMA. In the scope of the licensing processes of these two institutions, the safety analysis is essentially deterministic, complemented by probabilistic studies. The Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) is the study performed to evaluate the behavior of the nuclear reactor in a sequence of events that may lead to the melting of its core. It includes both probability and consequence estimation of these events, which are called Severe Accidents, allowing to obtain the risk assessment of the plant. Thus, the possible shortcomings in the design of systems are identified, providing basis for safety assessment and improving safety. During the environmental licensing, a Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA), including probabilistic evaluations, is required in order to support the development of the Risk Analysis Study, the Risk Management Program and the Emergency Plan. This article aims to provide an overview of probabilistic risk assessment methodologies and their applications in nuclear and environmental licensing processes of nuclear reactors in Brazil. (author)

  19. Application of probabilistic risk assessment in nuclear and environmental licensing processes of nuclear reactors in Brazil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mata, Jonatas F.C. da; Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Mesquita, Amir Z.

    2015-01-01

    The nuclear accident at Fukushima Daiichi, occurred in Japan in 2011, brought reflections, worldwide, on the management of nuclear and environmental licensing processes of existing nuclear reactors. One of the key lessons learned in this matter, is that the studies of Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Severe Accidents are becoming essential, even in the early stage of a nuclear development project. In Brazil, Brazilian Nuclear Energy Commission, CNEN, conducts the nuclear licensing. The organism responsible for the environmental licensing is Brazilian Institute of Environment and Renewable Natural Resources, IBAMA. In the scope of the licensing processes of these two institutions, the safety analysis is essentially deterministic, complemented by probabilistic studies. The Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) is the study performed to evaluate the behavior of the nuclear reactor in a sequence of events that may lead to the melting of its core. It includes both probability and consequence estimation of these events, which are called Severe Accidents, allowing to obtain the risk assessment of the plant. Thus, the possible shortcomings in the design of systems are identified, providing basis for safety assessment and improving safety. During the environmental licensing, a Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA), including probabilistic evaluations, is required in order to support the development of the Risk Analysis Study, the Risk Management Program and the Emergency Plan. This article aims to provide an overview of probabilistic risk assessment methodologies and their applications in nuclear and environmental licensing processes of nuclear reactors in Brazil. (author)

  20. APPLICATION OF KMV MODEL TO ASSESS CREDIT RISK OF INDIVIDUAL ENTREPRENEURS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Taishin A. A.

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The problem of credit risk is relevant for the bank. The purpose of scientific research - to develop a technique of adaptation and application of the model for the evaluation risk of KMV Russian entrepreneurs. The proposed method of evaluation credit risk of KMV Russian entrepreneurs has many advantages. Automation of calculations, based on plausible assumptions, will significantly reduce the time to process the customer's request. The article contains analysis of the KMV model based on the up-to-date results of the theory. The author investigates the possibility of modification, generalization of the model and practical implementation of the risk estimate of default entrepreneur KMV model using software package Visual Basic for Application on the example Management reporting of the entrepreneur. Showing the features of its application in the light of the modern achievements in the theory and practice of financial analysis. In this article suggested the finished result of evaluation risk of KMV Russian entrepreneurs, for risk assessment offered more precise recommendations for the practical use of KMV as a basic tool.

  1. Probablistic risk assessment methodology application to Indian pressurised heavy water reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Babar, A.K.; Grover, R.B.; Mehra, V.K.; Gangwal, D.K.; Chakraborty, G.

    1987-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessment in the context of nuclear power plants is associated with models that predict the offsite radiological releases resulting from reactor accidents. Level 1 PRA deals with the identification of accident sequences relevant to the design of a system and also with their quantitative estimation. It is characterised by event tree, fault tree analysis. The initiating events applicable to pressurised heavy water reactors have been considered and the dominating initiating events essential for detailed studies are identified in this paper. Reliability analysis and the associated problems encountered during the case studies are mentioned briefly. It is imperative to validate the failure data used for analysis. Bayesian technique has been employed for the same and a brief account is included herein. A few important observations, e.g. effects of the presence of moderator, made during the application of probabilistic risk assessment methodology are also discussed. (author)

  2. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA): status report and guidance for regulatory application. Draft report for comment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1984-02-01

    This document describes the current status of the methodologies used in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and provides guidance for the application of the results of PRAs to the nuclear reactor regulatory process. The PRA studies that have been completed or are underway are reviewed. The levels of maturity of the methodologies used in a PRA are discussed. Insights derived from PRAs are listed. The potential uses of PRA results for regulatory purposes are discussed

  3. Application of a pilot control banding tool for risk level assessment and control of nanoparticle exposures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paik, Samuel Y; Zalk, David M; Swuste, Paul

    2008-08-01

    Control banding (CB) strategies offer simplified solutions for controlling worker exposures to constituents that are found in the workplace in the absence of firm toxicological and exposure data. These strategies may be particularly useful in nanotechnology applications, considering the overwhelming level of uncertainty over what nanomaterials and nanotechnologies present as potential work-related health risks, what about these materials might lead to adverse toxicological activity, how risk related to these might be assessed and how to manage these issues in the absence of this information. This study introduces a pilot CB tool or 'CB Nanotool' that was developed specifically for characterizing the health aspects of working with engineered nanoparticles and determining the level of risk and associated controls for five ongoing nanotechnology-related operations being conducted at two Department of Energy research laboratories. Based on the application of the CB Nanotool, four of the five operations evaluated in this study were found to have implemented controls consistent with what was recommended by the CB Nanotool, with one operation even exceeding the required controls for that activity. The one remaining operation was determined to require an upgrade in controls. By developing this dynamic CB Nanotool within the realm of the scientific information available, this application of CB appears to be a useful approach for assessing the risk of nanomaterial operations, providing recommendations for appropriate engineering controls and facilitating the allocation of resources to the activities that most need them.

  4. Application of probabilistic risk assessment to advanced liquid metal reactor designs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carroll, W.P.; Temme, M.I.

    1987-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (US DOE) has been active in the development and application of probabilistic risk assessment methods within its liquid metal breeder reactor development program for the past eleven years. These methods have been applied to comparative risk evaluations, the selection of design features for reactor concepts, the selection and emphasis of research and development programs, and regulatory discussions. The application of probabilistic methods to reactors which are in the conceptual design stage presents unique data base, modeling, and timing challenges, and excellent opportunities to improve the final design. We provide here the background and insights on the experience which the US DOE liquid metal breeder reactor program has had in its application of probabilistic methods to the Clinch River Breeder Reactor Plant project, the Conceptual Design State of the Large Development Plant, and updates on this design. Plans for future applications of probabilistic risk assessment methods are also discussed. The US DOE is embarking on an innovative design program for liquid metal reactors. (author)

  5. Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1983-01-01

    The report is in sections, entitled: preface; summary and conclusions; introduction (historical and organizational); estimating engineering risks (techniques of risk estimation and forms of expression of risk); laboratory experiments for estimation of biological risks; estimation of risk from observations on man (travel, medical procedures; occupations; sport); the perception of risks; (as an example of attitudes towards a single hazard, studies of nuclear power are considered among other topics in this section); risk management (estimation; perception; acceptability, analysis of risk, costs and benefits; safety standards; decision-making process; possible guidelines). (U.K.)

  6. Multi-Hazard Advanced Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tools and Applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coleman, Justin L.; Bolisetti, Chandu; Veeraraghavan, Swetha; Parisi, Carlo; Prescott, Steven R.; Gupta, Abhinav

    2016-01-01

    Design of nuclear power plant (NPP) facilities to resist natural hazards has been a part of the regulatory process from the beginning of the NPP industry in the United States (US), but has evolved substantially over time. The original set of approaches and methods was entirely deterministic in nature and focused on a traditional engineering margins-based approach. However, over time probabilistic and risk-informed approaches were also developed and implemented in US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) guidance and regulation. A defense-in-depth framework has also been incorporated into US regulatory guidance over time. As a result, today, the US regulatory framework incorporates deterministic and probabilistic approaches for a range of different applications and for a range of natural hazard considerations. This framework will continue to evolve as a result of improved knowledge and newly identified regulatory needs and objectives, most notably in response to the NRC activities developed in response to the 2011 Fukushima accident in Japan. Although the US regulatory framework has continued to evolve over time, the tools, methods and data available to the US nuclear industry to meet the changing requirements have not kept pace. Notably, there is significant room for improvement in the tools and methods available for external event probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), which is the principal assessment approach used in risk-informed regulations and risk-informed decision-making applied to natural hazard assessment and design. This is particularly true if PRA is applied to natural hazards other than seismic loading. Development of a new set of tools and methods that incorporate current knowledge, modern best practice, and state-of-the-art computational resources would lead to more reliable assessment of facility risk and risk insights (e.g., the SSCs and accident sequences that are most risk-significant), with less uncertainty and reduced conservatisms.

  7. Multi-Hazard Advanced Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tools and Applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coleman, Justin L. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Bolisetti, Chandu [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Veeraraghavan, Swetha [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Parisi, Carlo [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Prescott, Steven R. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Gupta, Abhinav [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2016-09-01

    Design of nuclear power plant (NPP) facilities to resist natural hazards has been a part of the regulatory process from the beginning of the NPP industry in the United States (US), but has evolved substantially over time. The original set of approaches and methods was entirely deterministic in nature and focused on a traditional engineering margins-based approach. However, over time probabilistic and risk-informed approaches were also developed and implemented in US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) guidance and regulation. A defense-in-depth framework has also been incorporated into US regulatory guidance over time. As a result, today, the US regulatory framework incorporates deterministic and probabilistic approaches for a range of different applications and for a range of natural hazard considerations. This framework will continue to evolve as a result of improved knowledge and newly identified regulatory needs and objectives, most notably in response to the NRC activities developed in response to the 2011 Fukushima accident in Japan. Although the US regulatory framework has continued to evolve over time, the tools, methods and data available to the US nuclear industry to meet the changing requirements have not kept pace. Notably, there is significant room for improvement in the tools and methods available for external event probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), which is the principal assessment approach used in risk-informed regulations and risk-informed decision-making applied to natural hazard assessment and design. This is particularly true if PRA is applied to natural hazards other than seismic loading. Development of a new set of tools and methods that incorporate current knowledge, modern best practice, and state-of-the-art computational resources would lead to more reliable assessment of facility risk and risk insights (e.g., the SSCs and accident sequences that are most risk-significant), with less uncertainty and reduced conservatisms.

  8. The Next Generation of Risk Assessment Multi-Year Study—Highlights of Findings, Applications to Risk Assessment, and Future Directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cote, Ila; Andersen, Melvin E.; Ankley, Gerald T.; Barone, Stanley; Birnbaum, Linda S.; Boekelheide, Kim; Bois, Frederic Y.; Burgoon, Lyle D.; Chiu, Weihsueh A.; Crawford-Brown, Douglas; Crofton, Kevin M.; DeVito, Michael; Devlin, Robert B.; Edwards, Stephen W.; Guyton, Kathryn Z.; Hattis, Dale; Judson, Richard S.; Knight, Derek; Krewski, Daniel; Lambert, Jason; Maull, Elizabeth Anne; Mendrick, Donna; Paoli, Gregory M.; Patel, Chirag Jagdish; Perkins, Edward J.; Poje, Gerald; Portier, Christopher J.; Rusyn, Ivan; Schulte, Paul A.; Simeonov, Anton; Smith, Martyn T.; Thayer, Kristina A.; Thomas, Russell S.; Thomas, Reuben; Tice, Raymond R.; Vandenberg, John J.; Villeneuve, Daniel L.; Wesselkamper, Scott; Whelan, Maurice; Whittaker, Christine; White, Ronald; Xia, Menghang; Yauk, Carole; Zeise, Lauren; Zhao, Jay; DeWoskin, Robert S.

    2016-01-01

    Background: The Next Generation (NexGen) of Risk Assessment effort is a multi-year collaboration among several organizations evaluating new, potentially more efficient molecular, computational, and systems biology approaches to risk assessment. This article summarizes our findings, suggests applications to risk assessment, and identifies strategic research directions. Objective: Our specific objectives were to test whether advanced biological data and methods could better inform our understanding of public health risks posed by environmental exposures. Methods: New data and methods were applied and evaluated for use in hazard identification and dose–response assessment. Biomarkers of exposure and effect, and risk characterization were also examined. Consideration was given to various decision contexts with increasing regulatory and public health impacts. Data types included transcriptomics, genomics, and proteomics. Methods included molecular epidemiology and clinical studies, bioinformatic knowledge mining, pathway and network analyses, short-duration in vivo and in vitro bioassays, and quantitative structure activity relationship modeling. Discussion: NexGen has advanced our ability to apply new science by more rapidly identifying chemicals and exposures of potential concern, helping characterize mechanisms of action that influence conclusions about causality, exposure–response relationships, susceptibility and cumulative risk, and by elucidating new biomarkers of exposure and effects. Additionally, NexGen has fostered extensive discussion among risk scientists and managers and improved confidence in interpreting and applying new data streams. Conclusions: While considerable uncertainties remain, thoughtful application of new knowledge to risk assessment appears reasonable for augmenting major scope assessments, forming the basis for or augmenting limited scope assessments, and for prioritization and screening of very data limited chemicals. Citation: Cote I

  9. Assessing soil erosion risk using RUSLE through a GIS open source desktop and web application.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duarte, L; Teodoro, A C; Gonçalves, J A; Soares, D; Cunha, M

    2016-06-01

    Soil erosion is a serious environmental problem. An estimation of the expected soil loss by water-caused erosion can be calculated considering the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE). Geographical Information Systems (GIS) provide different tools to create categorical maps of soil erosion risk which help to study the risk assessment of soil loss. The objective of this study was to develop a GIS open source application (in QGIS), using the RUSLE methodology for estimating erosion rate at the watershed scale (desktop application) and provide the same application via web access (web application). The applications developed allow one to generate all the maps necessary to evaluate the soil erosion risk. Several libraries and algorithms from SEXTANTE were used to develop these applications. These applications were tested in Montalegre municipality (Portugal). The maps involved in RUSLE method-soil erosivity factor, soil erodibility factor, topographic factor, cover management factor, and support practices-were created. The estimated mean value of the soil loss obtained was 220 ton km(-2) year(-1) ranged from 0.27 to 1283 ton km(-2) year(-1). The results indicated that most of the study area (80 %) is characterized by very low soil erosion level (soil erosion was higher than 962 ton km(-2) year(-1). It was also concluded that areas with high slope values and bare soil are related with high level of erosion and the higher the P and C values, the higher the soil erosion percentage. The RUSLE web and the desktop application are freely available.

  10. Hygienic assessment of risk caused by application of graminis ke and rinkor vg herbicides

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.M. Vasileva

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Our research goal was to perform hygienic assessment of risks caused by Graminis KE and Rinkor VG herbicides for people working with them. We applied sanitary-hygienic and toxicological research techniques in our work in full conformity with valid technical regulatory documents and guidelines. We set the following research tasks: to analyze literature and information sources; to perform primary toxicological assessment of preparatory herbicides and study their acute toxicity together with sensitizing effects at intragastric introduction, cutaneous application, and inhalation exposure on laboratory animals; to examine herbicides cumulative effects and calculation their cumulation coefficient; to examine working conditions during a natural experiment when Graminis KE and Rinkor VG herbicides were applied and calculate risks for workers; to work out scientifically grounded recommendations on their safety application in agriculture. The examined herbicides, Graminis KE and Rinkor VG, are classified as substances with the 3rd hazard degree as per their toxicometric parameters (moderately hazardous substances. Calculated risks of complex (inhalant and dermal exposure to Gramins KE and Rinkor VG herbicides for workers (operators who refills them and those who spray plants with them when they are applied in agriculture don't exceed acceptable levels (are less than 1. Our work results allow to enrich a set of plant protectors which are applied in the country and to use such preparations in agriculture which are the least harmful for health and the environment. Application of Graminis KE and Rinkor VG herbicides will help to increase crops productivity.

  11. Ecotoxicological and analytical assessment of hydrocarbon-contaminated soils and application to ecological risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saterbak, A.; Toy, R.J.; Wong, D.C.L.; McMain, B.J.; Williams, M.P.; Dorn, P.B.; Brzuzy, L.P.; Chai, E.Y.; Salanitro, J.P.

    1999-07-01

    Ecotoxicological assessments of contaminated soil aim to understand the effect of introduced chemicals on the soil flora and fauna. Ecotoxicity test methods were developed and conducted on hydrocarbon-contaminated soils and on adjacent uncontaminated control soils from eight field locations. Tests included 7-d, 14-d, and chronic survival tests and reproduction assays for the earthworm (Eisenia fetida) and seed germination, root length, and plant growth assays for corn, lettuce, mustard, and wheat. Species-specific responses were observed with no-observed effect concentrations (NOECs) ranging from <1 to 100% contaminated soil. The 14-d earthworm survival NOEC was equal to or greater than the reproduction NOEC values for numbers of cocoons and juveniles, which were similar to one another. Cocoon and juvenile production varied among the control soils. Germination and root length NOECs for mustard and lettuce were less than NOECs for corn and wheat. Root length NOECs were similar to or less than seed germination NOECs. Statistically significant correlations for earthworm survival and seed germination as a function of hydrocarbon measurements were found. The 14-d earthworm survival and the seed germination tests are recommended for use in the context of a risk-based framework for the ecological assessment of contaminated sites.

  12. Proceeding of 35th domestic symposium on applications of structural reliability and risk assessment methods to nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-06-01

    As the 35th domestic symposium of Atomic Energy Research Committee, the Japan Welding Engineering Society, the symposium was held titled as Applications of structural reliability/risk assessment methods to nuclear energy'. Six speakers gave lectures titled as 'Structural reliability and risk assessment methods', 'Risk-informed regulation of US nuclear energy and role of probabilistic risk assessment', 'Reliability and risk assessment methods in chemical plants', 'Practical structural design methods based on reliability in architectural and civil areas', 'Maintenance activities based on reliability in thermal power plants' and 'LWR maintenance strategies based on Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics'. (T. Tanaka)

  13. Physicologically Based Toxicokinetic Models of Tebuconazole and Application in Human Risk Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jonsdottir, Svava Osk; Reffstrup, Trine Klein; Petersen, Annette

    2016-01-01

    (ADME) of tebuconazole. The developed models were validated on in vivo half-life data for rabbit with good results, and on plasma and tissue concentration-time course data of tebuconazole after i.v. administration in rabbit. In most cases, the predicted concentration levels were seen to be within......A series of physiologically based toxicokinetic (PBTK) models for tebuconazole were developed in four species, rat, rabbit, rhesus monkey, and human. The developed models were analyzed with respect to the application of the models in higher tier human risk assessment, and the prospect of using...... such models in risk assessment of cumulative and aggregate exposure is discussed. Relatively simple and biologically sound models were developed using available experimental data as parameters for describing the physiology of the species, as well as the absorption, distribution, metabolism, and elimination...

  14. WORKSHOP ON APPLICATION OF STATISTICAL METHODS TO BIOLOGICALLY-BASED PHARMACOKINETIC MODELING FOR RISK ASSESSMENT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biologically-based pharmacokinetic models are being increasingly used in the risk assessment of environmental chemicals. These models are based on biological, mathematical, statistical and engineering principles. Their potential uses in risk assessment include extrapolation betwe...

  15. [Regional difference of NPK fertilizers application and environmental risk assessment in Jiangsu Province, China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Qin-pu

    2015-05-01

    It is of great importance to have a deep understanding of the spatial distribution of NPK fertilizers application and the potential threat to the ecological environment in Jiangsu Province, which is helpful for regulating the rational fertilization, strengthening the fertilizer use risk management and guidance, and preventing agricultural non-point pollution. Based on the environmental risk assessment model with consideration of different impacts of N, P, K fertilizers on environment, this paper researched the regional differentiation characteristic and environmental risk of intensity of NPK fertilizer usages in Jiangsu. Analystic hierarchy process ( AHP) was used to determine the weithts of N, P, K. The environmental safety thresholds of N, P, K were made according to the standard of 250 kg · hm(-2) for the construction of ecological counties sponsered by Chinese government and the proportion of 1:0.5:0.5 for N:P:K surposed by some developed countries. The results showed that the intensity of NPK fertilizer application currently presented a gradually increasing trend from south to north of Jiangsu, with the extremum ratio of 3.3, and the extremum ratios of nitrogen fertilizer, phosphorus fertilizer and potassium fertilizer were 3.3, 4.5 and 4.4, respectively. The average proportion of nitrogen fertilizer, phosphorus fertilizer and potassium fertilizer of 13 cities in Jiangsu was 1:0.39:0.26. Their proportion was relatively in equilibrium in southern Jiangsu, but the nutrient structure disorder was serious in northern Jiangsu. In Jiangsu, the environmental risk index of fertilization averaged at 0.69 and in the middle-range of environmental risk. The environmental risk index of fertilizer application in southern and central Jiangsu was respectively at the low and moderate levels, while that of cities in northern Jiangsu was at the moderate, serious or severe level. In Jiangsu, the regional difference of fertilizer application and environmental risk assessment were

  16. Assessment of public health risk associated with viral contamination in harvested urban stormwater for domestic applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lim, Keah-Ying; Hamilton, Andrew J.; Jiang, Sunny C.

    2015-01-01

    Capturing stormwater is becoming a new standard for sustainable urban stormwater management, which can be used to supplement water supply portfolios in water-stressed cities. The key advantage of harvesting stormwater is to use low impact development (LID) systems for treatment to meet water quality requirement for non-potable uses. However, the lack of scientific studies to validate the safety of such practice has limited its adoption. Microbial hazards in stormwater, especially human viruses, represent the primary public health threat. Using adenovirus and norovirus as target pathogens, we investigated the viral health risk associated with a generic scenario of urban stormwater harvesting practice and its application for three non-potable uses: 1) toilet flushing, 2) showering, and 3) food-crop irrigation. The Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) results showed that food-crop irrigation has the highest annual viral infection risk (median range: 6.8 × 10 −4 –9.7 × 10 −1 per-person-per-year or pppy), followed by showering (3.6 × 10 −7 –4.3 × 10 −2 pppy), and toilet flushing (1.1 × 10 −7 –1.3 × 10 −4 pppy). Disease burden of each stormwater use was ranked in the same order as its viral infection risk: food-crop irrigation > showering > toilet flushing. The median and 95th percentile risk values of toilet-flushing using treated stormwater are below U.S. EPA annual risk benchmark of ≤ 10 −4 pppy, whereas the disease burdens of both toilet-flushing and showering are within the WHO recommended disease burdens of ≤ 10 −6 DALYs pppy. However, the acceptability of showering risk interpreted based on the U.S. EPA and WHO benchmarks is in disagreement. These results confirm the safety of stormwater application in toilet flushing, but call for further research to fill the data gaps in risk modeling as well as risk benchmarks. - Highlights: • Human health risks for three non-potable uses of treated stormwater are modeled. • Crop

  17. Assessment of public health risk associated with viral contamination in harvested urban stormwater for domestic applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lim, Keah-Ying [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Irvine, CA 92617-2175 (United States); Hamilton, Andrew J. [Faculty of Veterinary and Agricultural Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Dookie Campus, Currawa, VIC 3647 (Australia); Federation University Australia, Mt Helen Campus, VIC 3353 (Australia); Jiang, Sunny C., E-mail: sjiang@uci.edu [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Irvine, CA 92617-2175 (United States)

    2015-08-01

    Capturing stormwater is becoming a new standard for sustainable urban stormwater management, which can be used to supplement water supply portfolios in water-stressed cities. The key advantage of harvesting stormwater is to use low impact development (LID) systems for treatment to meet water quality requirement for non-potable uses. However, the lack of scientific studies to validate the safety of such practice has limited its adoption. Microbial hazards in stormwater, especially human viruses, represent the primary public health threat. Using adenovirus and norovirus as target pathogens, we investigated the viral health risk associated with a generic scenario of urban stormwater harvesting practice and its application for three non-potable uses: 1) toilet flushing, 2) showering, and 3) food-crop irrigation. The Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) results showed that food-crop irrigation has the highest annual viral infection risk (median range: 6.8 × 10{sup −4}–9.7 × 10{sup −1} per-person-per-year or pppy), followed by showering (3.6 × 10{sup −7}–4.3 × 10{sup −2} pppy), and toilet flushing (1.1 × 10{sup −7}–1.3 × 10{sup −4} pppy). Disease burden of each stormwater use was ranked in the same order as its viral infection risk: food-crop irrigation > showering > toilet flushing. The median and 95th percentile risk values of toilet-flushing using treated stormwater are below U.S. EPA annual risk benchmark of ≤ 10{sup −4} pppy, whereas the disease burdens of both toilet-flushing and showering are within the WHO recommended disease burdens of ≤ 10{sup −6} DALYs pppy. However, the acceptability of showering risk interpreted based on the U.S. EPA and WHO benchmarks is in disagreement. These results confirm the safety of stormwater application in toilet flushing, but call for further research to fill the data gaps in risk modeling as well as risk benchmarks. - Highlights: • Human health risks for three non-potable uses of treated

  18. Assessment of Total Risk on Non-Target Organisms in Fungicide Application for Agricultural Sustainability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Musa Bozdogan

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available In Turkey, in 2010, the amount of pesticide (active ingredient; a.i. used in agriculture was about 23,000 metric tons, of which approximately 32% was fungicides. In 2012, 14 a.i. were used for fungus control in wheat cultivation areas in Adana province, Turkey. These a.i. were: azoxystrobin, carbendazim, difenoconazole, epoxiconazole, fluquinconazole, prochloraz, propiconazole, prothioconazole, pyraclostrobin, spiroxamine, tebuconazole, thiophanate-methyl, triadimenol, and trifloxystrobin. In this study, the potential risk of a.i. on non-target organisms in fungicide application of wheat cultivation was assessed by The Pesticide Occupational and Environmental Risk (POCER indicators. In this study, the highest human health risk was for fluquinconazole (Exceedence Factor (EF 1.798 for human health, whereas the fungicide with the highest environmental risk was propiconazole (EF 2.000 for the environment. For non-target organisms, the highest potential risk was determined for propiconazole when applied at 0.1250 kg a.i. ha-1 (EF 2.897. The lowest total risk was for azoxystrobin when applied at  0.0650 kg a.i. ha-1 (EF 0.625.

  19. Application of predictive modelling techniques in industry: from food design up to risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Membré, Jeanne-Marie; Lambert, Ronald J W

    2008-11-30

    In this communication, examples of applications of predictive microbiology in industrial contexts (i.e. Nestlé and Unilever) are presented which cover a range of applications in food safety from formulation and process design to consumer safety risk assessment. A tailor-made, private expert system, developed to support safe product/process design assessment is introduced as an example of how predictive models can be deployed for use by non-experts. Its use in conjunction with other tools and software available in the public domain is discussed. Specific applications of predictive microbiology techniques are presented relating to investigations of either growth or limits to growth with respect to product formulation or process conditions. An example of a probabilistic exposure assessment model for chilled food application is provided and its potential added value as a food safety management tool in an industrial context is weighed against its disadvantages. The role of predictive microbiology in the suite of tools available to food industry and some of its advantages and constraints are discussed.

  20. Virtual reality applications for diagnosis, risk assessment and therapy of child abusers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fromberger, Peter; Jordan, Kirsten; Müller, Jürgen L

    2018-03-01

    Despite the successful application of virtual reality (VR) in a wide variety of mental disorders and the obvious potentials that VR provides, the use of VR in the context of criminology and forensic psychology is sparse. For forensic mental health professionals, VR provides some advantages that outrun general advantages of VR, e.g., ecological validity and controllability of social situations. Most important seems to be the unique possibility to expose offenders and to train coping skills in virtual situations, which are able to elicit disorder-relevant behavior-without endangering others. VR has already been used for the assessment of deviant sexual interests, for testing the ability to transfer learned coping skills communicated during treatment to behavior, and for risk assessment of child abusers. This article reviews and discusses these innovative research projects with regard to their impact on current clinical practice regarding risk assessment and treatment as well as other implementations of VR applications in forensic mental health. Finally, ethical guidelines for VR research in forensic mental health are provided. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  1. Application of probabilistic risk assessment in the operation of Koeberg nuclear power station

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nicholls, D.R.

    1991-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) calculates the probability that a set of multiple failures could occur, the frequency with which the safety circuits will be required and the consequences of the failure of the safety systems. In this way the frequency with which major accident situations can be expected to happen, can be derived. The world history of PRA is presented, together with the South African history of PRA. The theory of PRA is explained and the application of PRA studies is described. In the last twenty years, PRA has gone from being a theoretical idea to a practical tool for assisting in plant management. 2 figs., 1 ill

  2. An application of a hydraulic model simulator in flood risk assessment under changing climatic conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doroszkiewicz, J. M.; Romanowicz, R. J.

    2016-12-01

    The standard procedure of climate change impact assessment on future hydrological extremes consists of a chain of consecutive actions, starting from the choice of GCM driven by an assumed CO2 scenario, through downscaling of climatic forcing to a catchment scale, estimation of hydrological extreme indices using hydrological modelling tools and subsequent derivation of flood risk maps with the help of a hydraulic model. Among many possible sources of uncertainty, the main are the uncertainties related to future climate scenarios, climate models, downscaling techniques and hydrological and hydraulic models. Unfortunately, we cannot directly assess the impact of these different sources of uncertainties on flood risk in future due to lack of observations of future climate realizations. The aim of this study is an assessment of a relative impact of different sources of uncertainty on the uncertainty of flood risk maps. Due to the complexity of the processes involved, an assessment of total uncertainty of maps of inundation probability might be very computer time consuming. As a way forward we present an application of a hydraulic model simulator based on a nonlinear transfer function model for the chosen locations along the river reach. The transfer function model parameters are estimated based on the simulations of the hydraulic model at each of the model cross-sections. The study shows that the application of a simulator substantially reduces the computer requirements related to the derivation of flood risk maps under future climatic conditions. Biala Tarnowska catchment, situated in southern Poland is used as a case study. Future discharges at the input to a hydraulic model are obtained using the HBV model and climate projections obtained from the EUROCORDEX project. The study describes a cascade of uncertainty related to different stages of the process of derivation of flood risk maps under changing climate conditions. In this context it takes into account the

  3. Systematic Review: Concept and Tool Development with Application in the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) Assessment Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Systematic Review: Concept and tool development with application to the National Toxicology Program (NTP) and the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) Assessment Processes. There is growing interest within the environmental health community to incorporate systematic review m...

  4. Introduction to risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raina, V.M.

    2002-01-01

    This paper gives an introduction to risk assessment. It discusses the basic concepts of risk assessment, nuclear risk assessment process and products, the role of risk assessment products in nuclear safety assurance, the relationship between risk assessment and other safety analysis and risk assessment and safe operating envelope

  5. Chemical Mixtures Health Risk Assessment of Environmental Contaminants: Concepts, Methods, Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    This problems-based, introductory workshop focuses on methods to assess health risks posed by exposures to chemical mixtures in the environment. Chemical mixtures health risk assessment methods continue to be developed and evolve to address concerns over health risks from multic...

  6. Chemical Mixtures Health Risk Assessment of Environmental Contaminants: Concepts, Methods, And Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    This problems-based, introductory workshop focuses on methods to assess health risks posed by exposures to chemical mixtures in the environment. Chemical mixtures health risk assessment methods continue to be developed and evolve to address concerns over health risks from multic...

  7. Potential Dermal Exposure to Flonicamid and Risk Assessment of Applicators During Treatment in Apple Orchards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Mei-Ai; Yu, Aili; Zhu, Yong-Zhe; Kim, Jeong-Han

    2015-01-01

    Exposure and risk assessments of flonicamid for applicators were performed in apple orchards in Korea. Fifteen experiments were done with two experienced applicators under typical field conditions using a speed sprayer. In this study, cotton gloves, socks, masks, and dermal patches were used to monitor potential dermal exposure to flonicamid, and personal air samplers with XAD-2 resin and glass fiber filter were used to monitor potential inhalation exposure. The analytical methods were validated for the limit of detection, limit of quantitation, reproducibility, linearity of the calibration curve, and recovery of flonicamid from various exposure matrices. The results were encouraging and acceptable for an exposure study. The applicability of XAD-2 resin was evaluated via a trapping efficiency and breakthrough test. During the mixing/loading, the average total dermal exposure was 22.6 μg of flonicamid, corresponding to 4.5×10(-5)% of the prepared amount. For the spraying, the potential dermal exposure was 9.32 mg, and the ratio to applied amount was 1.9 × 10(-2%). The primary exposed body parts were the thigh (2.90 mg), upper arm (1.75 mg), and lower leg (1.66 mg). By comparison, absorbable quantity of exposure was small, only 1.62 μg (3.2×10(-6)%). The margin of safety (MOS) were calculated for risk assessment, in all sets of trials, MOS > 1, indicating the exposure level of flonicamid was considered to be safe in apple orchards. Although this was a limited study, it provided a good estimate of flonicamid exposure for orchard applicators.

  8. Quantitative microbiological risk assessment in food industry: Theory and practical application.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Membré, Jeanne-Marie; Boué, Géraldine

    2018-04-01

    The objective of this article is to bring scientific background as well as practical hints and tips to guide risk assessors and modelers who want to develop a quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) in an industrial context. MRA aims at determining the public health risk associated with biological hazards in a food. Its implementation in industry enables to compare the efficiency of different risk reduction measures, and more precisely different operational settings, by predicting their effect on the final model output. The first stage in MRA is to clearly define the purpose and scope with stakeholders, risk assessors and modelers. Then, a probabilistic model is developed; this includes schematically three important phases. Firstly, the model structure has to be defined, i.e. the connections between different operational processing steps. An important step in food industry is the thermal processing leading to microbial inactivation. Growth of heat-treated surviving microorganisms and/or post-process contamination during storage phase is also important to take into account. Secondly, mathematical equations are determined to estimate the change of microbial load after each processing step. This phase includes the construction of model inputs by collecting data or eliciting experts. Finally, the model outputs are obtained by simulation procedures, they have to be interpreted and communicated to targeted stakeholders. In this latter phase, tools such as what-if scenarios provide an essential added value. These different MRA phases are illustrated through two examples covering important issues in industry. The first one covers process optimization in a food safety context, the second one covers shelf-life determination in a food quality context. Although both contexts required the same methodology, they do not have the same endpoint: up to the human health in the foie gras case-study illustrating here a safety application, up to the food portion in the

  9. Challenges in Risk Assessment: Quantitative Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Uyttendaele, Mieke; De Meulenaer, Bruno

    2016-01-01

    The process of risk analysis consists out of three components, risk assessment, risk management and risk communication. These components are internationally well spread by Codex Alimentarius Commission as being the basis for setting science based standards, criteria on food safety hazards, e.g. setting maximum limits of mycotoxins in foodstuffs. However, the technical component risk assessment is hard to elaborate and to understand. Key in a risk assessment is the translation of biological or...

  10. Application of structural reliability and risk assessment to life prediction and life extension decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meyer, T.A.; Balkey, K.R.; Bishop, B.A.

    1987-01-01

    There can be numerous uncertainties involved in performing component life assessments. In addition, sufficient data may be unavailable to make a useful life prediction. Structural Reliability and Risk Assessment (SRRA) is primarily an analytical methodology or tool that quantifies the impact of uncertainties on the structural life of plant components and can address the lack of data in component life prediction. As a prelude to discussing the technical aspects of SRRA, a brief review of general component life prediction methods is first made so as to better develop an understanding of the role of SRRA in such evaluations. SRRA is then presented as it is applied in component life evaluations with example applications being discussed for both nuclear and non-nuclear components

  11. Assessment of ISLOCA risk: Methodology and application to a Babcock and Wilcox nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Galyean, W.J.; Gertman, D.I.

    1992-04-01

    This report presents information essential to understanding the risk associated with inter-system loss-of-coolant accidents (ISLOCAs). The methodology developed and presented in the report provides a state-of-the-art method for identifying and evaluating plant-specific hardware design, human performance issues, and accident consequence factors to relevant to the prediction of the ISLOCA risk. This ISLOCA methodology was developed and then applied to a Babcock and Wilcox (B ampersand W) nuclear power plants. The results from this application are described in detail. For this particular B ampersand W reference plant, the assessment indicated that the probability of a severe ISLOCA is approximately 2.2E-06/reactor-year. This document Volume 3 provides appendices A--H of the report. Topics are: Historical experience related to ISLOCA events; component failure rates; reference B ampersand W plant system descriptions; reference B ampersand W plant ISLOCA event trees; Human reliability analysis for the B ampersand W ISLOCA probabilistic risk assessment; thermal hydraulic calculations; bounding core uncovery time calculations; and system rupture probability

  12. State of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Conrad, J.

    1978-03-01

    In view of the growing importance assumed in recent years by scientific work on the calculation, quantification, evaluation and acceptance as well as behavior in the face of risks in general and more specifically, the risks of large industrial plants, the report attempts to provide a survey of the current situation, results and evaluation of this new branch of research, risk assessment. The emphasis of the report is on the basic discussion and criticism of the theoretical and methodological approaches used in the field of risk assessment (section 3). It is concerned above all with - methodical problems of determining and quantifying risks (3.1) - questions of the possibility of risk evaluation and comp arison (3.1, 3.2) - the premises of normative and empirical studies on decision making under risk (3.2, 3.3) - investigations into society's acceptance of risks involved in the introduction of new technologies (3.4) - attempts to combine various aspects of the field of risk assessment in a unified concept (3.5, 3.6, 3.7). Because risk assessment is embedded in the framework of decision theory and technology assessment, it can be implicitly evaluated at a more general level within this framework, as far as its possibilities and weaknesses of method and application are concerned (section 4). Sections 2 and 5 deal with the social context of origin and utilization of risk assessment. Finally, an attempt is made at a summary indicating the possible future development of risk assessment. (orig./HP) [de

  13. Application of toxicogenomics in hepatic systems toxicology for risk assessment: Acetaminophen as a case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kienhuis, Anne S.; Bessems, Jos G.M.; Pennings, Jeroen L.A.; Driessen, Marja; Luijten, Mirjam; Delft, Joost H.M. van

    2011-01-01

    Hepatic systems toxicology is the integrative analysis of toxicogenomic technologies, e.g., transcriptomics, proteomics, and metabolomics, in combination with traditional toxicology measures to improve the understanding of mechanisms of hepatotoxic action. Hepatic toxicology studies that have employed toxicogenomic technologies to date have already provided a proof of principle for the value of hepatic systems toxicology in hazard identification. In the present review, acetaminophen is used as a model compound to discuss the application of toxicogenomics in hepatic systems toxicology for its potential role in the risk assessment process, to progress from hazard identification towards hazard characterization. The toxicogenomics-based parallelogram is used to identify current achievements and limitations of acetaminophen toxicogenomic in vivo and in vitro studies for in vitro-to-in vivo and interspecies comparisons, with the ultimate aim to extrapolate animal studies to humans in vivo. This article provides a model for comparison of more species and more in vitro models enhancing the robustness of common toxicogenomic responses and their relevance to human risk assessment. To progress to quantitative dose-response analysis needed for hazard characterization, in hepatic systems toxicology studies, generation of toxicogenomic data of multiple doses/concentrations and time points is required. Newly developed bioinformatics tools for quantitative analysis of toxicogenomic data can aid in the elucidation of dose-responsive effects. The challenge herein is to assess which toxicogenomic responses are relevant for induction of the apical effect and whether perturbations are sufficient for the induction of downstream events, eventually causing toxicity.

  14. Metamodeling-based approach for risk assessment and cost estimation: Application to geological carbon sequestration planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Alexander Y.; Jeong, Hoonyoung; González-Nicolás, Ana; Templeton, Thomas C.

    2018-04-01

    Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is being evaluated globally as a geoengineering measure for significantly reducing greenhouse emission. However, long-term liability associated with potential leakage from these geologic repositories is perceived as a main barrier of entry to site operators. Risk quantification and impact assessment help CCS operators to screen candidate sites for suitability of CO2 storage. Leakage risks are highly site dependent, and a quantitative understanding and categorization of these risks can only be made possible through broad participation and deliberation of stakeholders, with the use of site-specific, process-based models as the decision basis. Online decision making, however, requires that scenarios be run in real time. In this work, a Python based, Leakage Assessment and Cost Estimation (PyLACE) web application was developed for quantifying financial risks associated with potential leakage from geologic carbon sequestration sites. PyLACE aims to assist a collaborative, analytic-deliberative decision making processes by automating metamodel creation, knowledge sharing, and online collaboration. In PyLACE, metamodeling, which is a process of developing faster-to-run surrogates of process-level models, is enabled using a special stochastic response surface method and the Gaussian process regression. Both methods allow consideration of model parameter uncertainties and the use of that information to generate confidence intervals on model outputs. Training of the metamodels is delegated to a high performance computing cluster and is orchestrated by a set of asynchronous job scheduling tools for job submission and result retrieval. As a case study, workflow and main features of PyLACE are demonstrated using a multilayer, carbon storage model.

  15. APPLICATION OF LASER SCANNING SURVEYING TO ROCK SLOPES RISK ASSESSMENT ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Corsetti

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The methods for understanding rock instability mechanisms and for evaluating potential destructive scenarios are of great importance in risk assessment analysis dedicated to the establishment of appropriate prevention and mitigation actions. When the portion of the unstable rock mass is very large, effective actions to counteract the risks are complex and expensive. In these conditions, an optimal risk management cannot ignore procedures able to faster and accurately acquire i geometrical data for modeling the geometry of the rock walls and implementing reliable forecasting models and ii monitoring data able to describe the magnitude and the direction of deformation processes. These data contributes to the prediction of the behavior of a landslide if the measurements are acquired frequently and reliable numerical models can be implemented. Innovative geomatic techniques, based on GPS, Terrestrial Laser Scanning Surveying (TLS, automated total station and satellite and ground SAR Interferometry, have been recently applied to define the geometry and monitoring the displacements of unstable slopes. Among these, TLS is mainly adopted to generate detailed 3D models useful to reconstruct rock wall geometry by contributing to the estimation of geo-mechanical parameters, that is orientation, persistence and apparent spacing of rock discontinuities. Two examples of applications of TLS technique to the analysis of a large front in a quarry and of a rock shoulder of a dam are presented.

  16. Application of FIVE methodology in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of fire events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lopez Garcia, F.J.; Suarez Alonso, J.; Fiolamengual, M.J.

    1993-01-01

    This paper reflects the experience acquired during the process of evaluation and updating of the fire analysis within the Cofrentes NPP PRA. It determines which points are the least precise, either because of their greater uncertainty or because of their excessive conservatism, as well as the subtasks which have involved a larger work load and could be simplified. These aspects are compared with the steps followed in methodology FIVE (Fire Vulnerability Evaluation Methodology) to assess whether application of this methodology would optimize the task, by making it more systematic and realistic and reducing uncertainties. On the one hand, the FIVE methodology does not have the scope sufficient to carry out a quantitative risk evaluation, but it can easily be complemented -without detriment to its systematic nature- by quantifying core damage in significant areas. On the other hand, certain issues such as definition of the fire growth software program which has to be used, are still not fully closed. Nevertheless, the conclusions derived from this assessment are satisfactory, since it is considered that this methodology would serve to unify the criteria and data of the analysis of fire-induced risks, providing a progressive screening method which would considerably simplify the task. (author)

  17. Development and application of bioassays for a site-specific risk assessment of contaminated soil

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rila, J.-P.

    2008-01-01

    Soil risk assessment based on generic approaches is accompanied by a large number of uncertainties. In site-specific risk assessment aimed at identifying the actual effects on the ecosystem by using e.g. bioassays in soil elutriates and taking into account land-use these uncertainties can be largely

  18. Use of Monte Carlo methods in environmental risk assessments at the INEL: Applications and issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harris, G.; Van Horn, R.

    1996-06-01

    The EPA is increasingly considering the use of probabilistic risk assessment techniques as an alternative or refinement of the current point estimate of risk. This report provides an overview of the probabilistic technique called Monte Carlo Analysis. Advantages and disadvantages of implementing a Monte Carlo analysis over a point estimate analysis for environmental risk assessment are discussed. The general methodology is provided along with an example of its implementation. A phased approach to risk analysis that allows iterative refinement of the risk estimates is recommended for use at the INEL

  19. Use of Monte Carlo methods in environmental risk assessments at the INEL: Applications and issues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harris, G.; Van Horn, R.

    1996-06-01

    The EPA is increasingly considering the use of probabilistic risk assessment techniques as an alternative or refinement of the current point estimate of risk. This report provides an overview of the probabilistic technique called Monte Carlo Analysis. Advantages and disadvantages of implementing a Monte Carlo analysis over a point estimate analysis for environmental risk assessment are discussed. The general methodology is provided along with an example of its implementation. A phased approach to risk analysis that allows iterative refinement of the risk estimates is recommended for use at the INEL.

  20. Applicability of PRA methods and data to the financial risk assessment of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El-Sheik, K.A.

    1985-01-01

    Financial risk assessment, where the probability and severity of financial consequences are estimated, offers a logical framework for organizing and evaluating data pertinent to nuclear power plant accidents. Under the sponsorship of the Electric Power Research Institute, General Electric investigated the feasibility of financial risk assessment of nuclear power plants and of applying PRA methods and data in such an assessment. This paper summarizes the main findings of this investigation. Specifically, the paper discussed the following topics: definition of financial consequences and financial risk; overall approach for financial risk assessment and how it compares with the approach for PRA used in the Reactor Safety Study; and specific financial risk assessment procedures for defining initiating events, plant response sequences, institutional scenarios, and financial consequences and how they compare to analogous procedures for PRA

  1. Risk assessments of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) during sludge application in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qian, Jun

    2018-02-01

    Due to increasingly less space in municipal environment, waste management has become an urgent issue worldwide. As one of common municipal waste, sewage sludge from wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) contains abundant nutrients, some of which can be quite essential for plant growth. In consideration of nutrient recycling and energy saving, sludge application has been frequently promoted in many countries across the world. However, even after several sludge stabilization procedures, sewage sludge may still contain a large variety of toxic pollutants, especially some emerging organic contaminants (EOCs). Applied in various household products and plastic industries as additives, polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) have been constantly detected in sewage sludge samples from several cities in China since 2005, as well as some biosolid samples after sludge stabilization processes, suggesting their strong persistence and wide occurrence. During sludge application onto farmland soils, PBDEs may desorb from sludge particles and get attached by soil organic matter (SOM), followed by plant root uptake and translocation to aboveground tissues. In this study, data about current pollution of PBDEs in sewage sludge samples from China was reviewed, and the potential risks during sludge application was comprehensively assessed.

  2. Incorporating uncertainties into risk assessment with an application to the exploratory studies facilities at Yucca Mountain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fathauer, P.M.

    1995-08-01

    A methodology that incorporates variability and reducible sources of uncertainty into the probabilistic and consequence components of risk was developed. The method was applied to the north tunnel of the Exploratory Studies Facility at Yucca Mountain in Nevada. In this assessment, variability and reducible sources of uncertainty were characterized and propagated through the risk assessment models using a Monte Carlo based software package. The results were then manipulated into risk curves at the 5% and 95% confidence levels for both the variability and overall uncertainty analyses, thus distinguishing between variability and reducible sources of uncertainty. In the Yucca Mountain application, the designation of the north tunnel as an item important to public safety, as defined by 10 CFR 60, was determined. Specifically, the annual frequency of a rock fall breaching a waste package causing an off-site dose of 500 mrem (5x10 -3 Sv) was calculated. The annual frequency, taking variability into account, ranged from 1.9x10 -9 per year at the 5% confidence level to 2.5x10 -9 per year at the 95% confidence level. The frequency range after including all uncertainty was 9.5x10 -10 to 1.8x10 -8 per year. The maximum observable frequency, at the 100% confidence level, was 4.9x10 -8 per year. This is below the 10 -6 per year frequency criteria of 10 CFR 60. Therefore, based on this work, the north tunnel does not fall under the items important to public safety designation for the event studied

  3. A probabilistic seismic risk assessment procedure for nuclear power plants: (II) Application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Y.-N.; Whittaker, A.S.; Luco, N.

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents the procedures and results of intensity- and time-based seismic risk assessments of a sample nuclear power plant (NPP) to demonstrate the risk-assessment methodology proposed in its companion paper. The intensity-based assessments include three sets of sensitivity studies to identify the impact of the following factors on the seismic vulnerability of the sample NPP, namely: (1) the description of fragility curves for primary and secondary components of NPPs, (2) the number of simulations of NPP response required for risk assessment, and (3) the correlation in responses between NPP components. The time-based assessment is performed as a series of intensity-based assessments. The studies illustrate the utility of the response-based fragility curves and the inclusion of the correlation in the responses of NPP components directly in the risk computation. ?? 2011 Published by Elsevier B.V.

  4. The Combined Application of Fault Trees and Turbine Cycle Simulation in Generation Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heo, Gyun Young; Park, Jin Kyun

    2009-01-01

    The paper describes a few ideas developed for the framework to quantify human errors taking place during the test and maintenance (T and M) in a secondary system of nuclear power plants, which was presented in the previous meeting. GRA-HRE (Generation Risk Assessment for Human Related Events) is composed of four essential components, the human error interpreter, the frequency estimator, the risk estimator, and the derate estimator. The proposed GRA gave emphasis on explicitly considering human errors, performing fault tree analysis including the entire balance-of-plant side, and quantifying electric loss under abnormal plant configurations. In terms of the consideration of human errors, it was hard to distinguish the effects of human errors from other failure modes in the conventional GRA because the human errors were implicitly involved in mechanical failure mode. Since the risk estimator in GRA-HRE separately deals with the basic events representing human error modes such as control failure, wrong object, omission, wrong action, etc., we can recognize their relative importance comparing with other types of mechanical failures. Other specialties in GRA-HRE came from the combined application of fault tree analysis and turbine cycle simulation. The previous study suggested that we would use the fault tree analysis with the top events designated by system's malfunction such as 'feedwater system failure' to develop the risk estimator. However, this approach could not clearly provide the path of propagation of human errors, and it was difficult to present the failure logics in some cases. In order to overcome these bottlenecks, the paper is going to propose the modified idea to setup top events and to explain how to make use of turbine cycle simulation to complete the fault trees in a cooperative manner

  5. Risk assessment of cryogenic installations – implementation, applicability of methodologies and challenges at CERN

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2016-01-01

    For the safe design of a cryogenic installation, it is essential to carry out a comprehensive hazard identification and risk estimate in order to put in place the necessary control measures for an adequate risk mitigation. According to CERN Safety Rules, it is mandatory that the organic unit owning a cryogenic facility conducts and documents a risk assessment. This requirement is also given by the European Directive 2014/68/EU to manufacturers of pressure equipment. During the talk, some of the challenges CERN faces in the development of risk assessments across the broad array of activities involving cryogenic equipment in the organization will be discussed. Challenges such as the choice of the best-suited risk assessment methodology based on the features and complexity of the installation/activities, the efforts to develop tools to facilitate hazard identification, risk analysis and definition of related measures to protect the health and safety of workers, such as streamlined guidelines, forms and check...

  6. 2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA has announced The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OHApril 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!The Annual Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference is a unique meeting where several Government Agencies come together to discuss toxicology and risk assessment issues that are not only of concern to the government, but also to a broader audience including academia and industry. The theme of this year's conference is Emerging Issues and Challenges in Risk Assessment and the preliminary agenda includes: Plenary Sessions and prominent speakers (tentative) include: Issues of Emerging Chemical ContaminantsUncertainty and Variability in Risk Assessment Use of Mechanistic data in IARC evaluationsParallel Sessions:Uncertainty and Variability in Dose-Response Assessment Recent Advances in Toxicity and Risk Assessment of RDX The Use of Epidemiologic Data for Risk Assessment Applications Cumulative Health Risk Assessment:

  7. MARKET RISK ASSESSMENT USING EXPECTED TAIL LOST (ETL – PECULIARITIES AND APPLICATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergey Radukanov

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Measuring market risk is explained by using Expected Tail Lost in the article. Its advantages, disadvantages and range of application are pointed out. The basic calculation stages are emphasized in MS EXCEL. Market risk measurement is carried out towards the shares of the company General Motors Company (GM

  8. Application of sensitivity analysis in nuclear power plant probabilistic risk assessment studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hirschberg, S.; Knochenhauer, M.

    1986-01-01

    Nuclear power plant probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) studies utilise many models, simplifications and assumptions. Also subjective judgement is widely applied due to lack of actual data. This results in significant uncertainties. Three general types of uncertainties have been identified: (1) parameter uncertainties, (2) modelling uncertainties, and (3) completeness uncertainties. The significance of some of the modelling assumptions and simplifications cannot be investigated by assignment and propagation of parameter uncertainties. In such cases the impact of different options may (and should) be studied by performing sensitivity analyses, which concentrate on the most critical elements. This paper describes several items suitable for close examination by means of application of sensitivity analysis, when performing a level 1 PRA. Sensitivity analyses are performed with respect to: (1) boundary conditions (success criteria, credit for non-safety systems, degree of detail in modelling of support functions), (2) operator actions, (3) treatment of common cause failures (CCFs). The items of main interest are continuously identified in the course of performing a PRA study, as well as by scrutinising the final results. The practical aspects of sensitivity analysis are illustrated by several applications from a recent PRA study. The critical importance of modelling assumptions is also demonstrated by implementation of some modelling features from another level 1 PRA into the reference model. It is concluded that sensitivity analysis leads to insights important for analysts, reviewers and decision makers. (author)

  9. Risk-based systems analysis for emerging technologies: Applications of a technology risk assessment model to public decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quadrel, M.J.; Fowler, K.M.; Cameron, R.; Treat, R.J.; McCormack, W.D.; Cruse, J.

    1995-01-01

    The risk-based systems analysis model was designed to establish funding priorities among competing technologies for tank waste remediation. The model addresses a gap in the Department of Energy's (DOE's) ''toolkit'' for establishing funding priorities among emerging technologies by providing disciplined risk and cost assessments of candidate technologies within the context of a complete remediation system. The model is comprised of a risk and cost assessment and a decision interface. The former assesses the potential reductions in risk and cost offered by new technology relative to the baseline risk and cost of an entire system. The latter places this critical information in context of other values articulated by decision makers and stakeholders in the DOE system. The risk assessment portion of the model is demonstrated for two candidate technologies for tank waste retrieval (arm-based mechanical retrieval -- the ''long reach arm'') and subsurface barriers (close-coupled chemical barriers). Relative changes from the base case in cost and risk are presented for these two technologies to illustrate how the model works. The model and associated software build on previous work performed for DOE's Office of Technology Development and the former Underground Storage Tank Integrated Demonstration, and complement a decision making tool presented at Waste Management 1994 for integrating technical judgements and non-technical (stakeholder) values when making technology funding decisions

  10. Application of Grounded Theory in Determining Required Elements for IPv6 Risk Assessment Equation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosli Athirah

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The deployment of Internet Protocol version 6 (IPv6 has raised security concerns among the network administrators. Thus, in strengthening the network security, administrator requires an appropriate method to assess the possible risks that occur in their networks. Aware of the needs to calculate risk in IPv6 network, it is essential to an organization to have an equation that is flexible and consider the requirements of the network. However, the existing risk assessment equations do not consider the requirement of the network. Therefore, this paper presents the adaptation of grounded theory to search for elements that are needed to develop IPv6 risk assessment (IRA6 equation. The attack scenarios’ experiments; UDP Flooding, TCP Flooding and Multicast attacks were carried out in different network environment to show how the IPv6 risk assessment equation being used. The result shows that the IRA6 equation is more flexible to be used regardless the network sizes and easier to calculate the risk value compared to the existing risk assessment equations. Hence, network administrators can have a proper decision making and strategic planning for a robust network security.

  11. HTGR accident and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silady, F.A.; Everline, C.J.; Houghton, W.J.

    1982-01-01

    This paper is a synopsis of the high-temperature gas-cooled reactor probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) performed by General Atomic Company. Principal topics presented include: HTGR safety assessments, peer interfaces, safety research, process gas explosions, quantitative safety goals, licensing applications of PRA, enhanced safety, investment risk assessments, and PRA design integration

  12. A combined usage of stochastic and quantitative risk assessment methods in the worksites: Application on an electric power provider

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marhavilas, P.K.; Koulouriotis, D.E.

    2012-01-01

    An individual method cannot build either a realistic forecasting model or a risk assessment process in the worksites, and future perspectives should focus on the combined forecasting/estimation approach. The main purpose of this paper is to gain insight into a risk prediction and estimation methodological framework, using the combination of three different methods, including the proportional quantitative-risk-assessment technique (PRAT), the time-series stochastic process (TSP), and the method of estimating the societal-risk (SRE) by F–N curves. In order to prove the usefulness of the combined usage of stochastic and quantitative risk assessment methods, an application on an electric power provider industry is presented to, using empirical data.

  13. Hepatitis Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... please visit this page: About CDC.gov . Hepatitis Risk Assessment Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Viral Hepatitis. Are you at risk? Take this 5 minute Hepatitis Risk Assessment developed ...

  14. Use of information resources by the state of Tennessee in risk assessment applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bashor, B.S. [Tennessee Department of Health and Environment, Nashville (United States)

    1990-12-31

    The major resources used by the Bureau of Environment, and Environmental Epidemiology (EEP) for risk assessment are: the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS), Health and Environmental Effects Summary Table (HEAST), Agency for Toxic Substances and disease Registry (ATSDR) Toxicological Profiles, databases at the National Library of Medicine (NLM), World Health Organization (WHO) ENvironmental Criteria, and documents that the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has published on Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) risk assessment activities. The Risk Assessment Review has been helpful in providing information about availability of new documents or information. No systematic method has been made available to us to locate information resources. IRIS User`s Support has been helpful in making appropriate and timely referrals. Most other EPA resources were located by serendipity and persistence. The CERCLA methodology for risk assessments is being used in environmental programs, and at present, one person is responsible for all risk assessment activities in the department, but plans are underway to train one or two people from each program area. 2 figs.

  15. An integrated stochastic environmental risk assessment method and its application to a petroleum-contaminated site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, L.; Fuller, G.A.; Huang, G.H.

    1999-01-01

    Contamination of soil and water and the resulting threat to public health and the environment are the frequent results of oil spills, leaks and other releases of gasoline, diesel fuel, heating oil and other petroleum products. Integrating an analytical groundwater solute transport model within its general framework, this paper proposes an integrated stochastic risk assessment method and ways to apply it to petroleum-contaminated sites. Both the analytical solute transport model and the general risk assessment framework are solved by the Monte Carlo simulation technique for approaching the theoretical output distribution. Results of this study show that the total cancer risk has approximately log-normal distribution, irrespective of the fact that a variety of distributions were used to define the related parameters. It is claimed that the method can improve the effectiveness of the risk assessment for subsurface, and provide useful result for site remediation decisions. 23 refs., 3 tabs., 4 figs

  16. Some applications of 2-D and 3-D photogrammetry during laboratory experiments for hydrogeological risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Scaioni

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Scaled-down flume tests are largely used to support investigations for the assessment of hydrogeological risk. Achieved outcomes can be integrated to numerical analyses for the study of unstable slope collapse, debris transport, and hydrological models in general. In the set-up of such simulation platforms, a relevant role has to be given to the Spatial Sensor Network (SSN which is in charge of collecting geo-referenced, quantitative information during experiments. Photogrammetry (including 3-D imaging sensors can play an important role in SSN because of its capability of collecting information covering wide surfaces without any contact. The aim of this paper is to give an overview and some examples of the potential of photogrammetry in hydrogeological simulation experiments. After a general introduction on a few preliminary issues (sensors, calibration, ground reference, usage of imaging or ranging sensors, potential applications are classified into 2-D and 3-D categories. Examples are focused on a scaled-down landslide simulation platform, which has been developed at Tongji University (Shanghai, P.R. China.

  17. [Professional risk assessment for modern pesticides during their application in the horticulture].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semenenko, V M; Korshun, M M

    2014-01-01

    The work conditions on application of modern pesticides Masai, Regalis and Bellis for apple orchards protection have been researched. We show that total risk of hazard influence of tebufenpyrad, prohexadione-calcium, pyraclostrobin and boscalid on agricultural workers under condition of complex entry in body through skin and respiratory tracts is permissible. We proved that application of studied preparations is not dangerous for workers in case of abidance of agrotechnical and hygienic regulations.

  18. Atmospheric aerosol dispersion models and their applications to environmental risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrzej Mazur

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. Numerical models of dispersion of atmospheric pollutants are widely used to forecast the spread of contaminants in the air and to analyze the effects of this phenomenon. The aim of the study is to investigate the possibilities and the quality of diagnosis and prediction of atmospheric transport of aerosols in the air using the dispersion model of atmospheric pollutants, developed at the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMWM in Warsaw. Material and methods. A model of the dispersion of atmospheric pollutants, linked with meteorological models in a diagnostic mode, was used to simulate the transport of the cloud of aerosols released during the crash near the town of Ożydiw (Ukraine and of volcanic ash – during the volcanic eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in Iceland. Results. Possible directions of dispersion of pollutants in the air and its concentration in the atmosphere and deposition to the soil were assessed. The analysis of temporal variability of concentrations of aerosols in the atmosphere confirmed that the model developed at IMWM is an effective tool for diagnosis of air quality in the area of Poland as well as for determination of exposure duration to the aerosol clouds for different weather scenarios. Conclusions. The results are a confirmation of the thesis, that because in the environmental risk assessment, an important element is not only current information on the level of pollution concentrations, but also the time of exposure to pollution and forecast of these elements, and consequently the predicted effects on man or the environment in general; so it is necessary to use forecasting tools, similar to presented application. The dispersion model described in the paper is an operational tool for description, analysis and forecasting of emergency situations in case of emissions of hazardous substances.

  19. Risk assessment applications for determining cleanup limits for uranium in treated and untreated soils

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Armstrong, A.Q.; Layton, D.W.; Rutz, E.E.

    1994-01-01

    Uranium-contaminated soils are present at various locations across the US where uranium was processed for nuclear fuels or atomic weapons. Important issues relative to such contamination include the assessment of potential health risks associated with human exposures to the residual uranium and the determination of safe levels of uranium in soils that have been treated by a given technology. This paper discusses various risk assessment considerations that must be dealt with when developing cleanup limits for uranium in treated and untreated soils. Key issues addressed include alternative land use scenarios, potential exposure pathways, characterization of the bioavailability of uranium compounds in food and water, a brief overview of health risks associated with uranium and its daughter products as well as a summary of considerations for development of risk-based cleanup limits for uranium in soils

  20. Application of the Risk Map for Assessment Destructive Effects of Essential Environment on the Information System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladlena Sergeevna Atkina

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to the problem of the business continuity as a necessary element of the strategy of information security. The analysis of the requirements of federal legislation, standards, recommendations and guidelines to ensure the availability, disaster recovery, and recovery of data and information structures of organizations in their operation was conducted. The proposed approach to assessing the possible destabilizing factors and emergency situations includes the model of the environment where the information systems are operational processing key business processes of the organization, and the method for risk assessment to each of the destabilizing effects. Technique of risk assessment expects to use quantitative and qualitative approach to drawing three zone risk maps.

  1. Integrated Safety and Security Risk Assessment Methods: A Survey of Key Characteristics and Applications

    OpenAIRE

    Chockalingam, Sabarathinam; Hadziosmanovic, Dina; Pieters, Wolter; Teixeira, Andre; van Gelder, Pieter

    2017-01-01

    Over the last years, we have seen several security incidents that compromised system safety, of which some caused physical harm to people. Meanwhile, various risk assessment methods have been developed that integrate safety and security, and these could help to address the corresponding threats by implementing suitable risk treatment plans. However, an overarching overview of these methods, systematizing the characteristics of such methods, is missing. In this paper, we conduct a systematic l...

  2. Dutch Risk Assessment tools

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Venema, A.

    2015-01-01

    The ‘Risico- Inventarisatie- en Evaluatie-instrumenten’ is the name for the Dutch risk assessment (RA) tools. A RA tool can be used to perform a risk assessment including an evaluation of the identified risks. These tools were among the first online risk assessment tools developed in Europe. The

  3. Qualitative risk assessment of subsurface barriers in applications supporting retrieval of SST waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Treat, R.L.

    1994-04-01

    This report provides a brief, qualitative assessment of risks associated with the potential use of impermeable surface barriers installed around and beneath Hanford Site single-shell tanks (SSTs) to support the retrieval of wastes from those tanks. These risks are compared to qualitative assessment of costs and risks associated with a case in which barriers are not used. A quantitative assessment of costs and risks associated with these two cases will be prepared and documented in a companion report. The companion report will compare quantitatively the costs and risks of several retrieval options with varying parameters, such as effectiveness of retrieval, effectiveness of subsurface barriers, and the use of surface barriers. For ease of comparison of qualitative risks, a case in which impermeable subsurface barriers are used in conjunction with another technology to remove tank waste is referred, to in this report as the Barrier Case. A case in which waste removal technologies are used without employing a subsurface barrier is referred to as the No Barrier Case. The technologies associated with each case are described in the following sections

  4. Application of risk-based assessment and management to riverbank filtration sites in India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartak, Rico; Page, Declan; Sandhu, Cornelius; Grischek, Thomas; Saini, Bharti; Mehrotra, Indu; Jain, Chakresh K; Ghosh, Narayan C

    2015-03-01

    This is the first reported study of a riverbank filtration (RBF) scheme to be assessed following the Australian Guidelines for Managed Aquifer Recharge. A comprehensive staged approach to assess the risks from 12 hazards to human health and the environment has been undertaken. Highest risks from untreated ground and Ganga River water were identified with pathogens, turbidity, iron, manganese, total dissolved solids and total hardness. Recovered water meets the guideline values for inorganic chemicals and salinity but exceeds limits for thermotolerant coliforms frequently. A quantitative microbial risk assessment undertaken on the water recovered from the aquifer indicated that the residual risks of 0.00165 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) posed by the reference bacteria Escherichia coli O157:H7 were below the national diarrhoeal incidence of 0.027 DALYs and meet the health target in this study of 0.005 DALYs per person per year, which corresponds to the World Health Organization (WHO) regional diarrhoeal incidence in South-East Asia. Monsoon season was a major contributor to the calculated burden of disease and final DALYs were strongly dependent on RBF and disinfection pathogen removal capabilities. Finally, a water safety plan was developed with potential risk management procedures to minimize residual risks related to pathogens.

  5. Application of risk assessment techniques to microbial monitoring data: a South-African perspective

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Rodda, N

    1993-01-01

    Full Text Available (-1) and 5x10(-4) - 1x10(-2), respectively. A number of complicating factors were identified. Detection limits were high and volumes of water monitored were low. There was no information on viral pathogen removal during treatment. Application of risk...

  6. Integrative Application of Life Cycle Assessment and Risk Assessment to Environmental Impacts of Anthropogenic Pollutants at a Watershed Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Xiaodan; Yu, Shen; Ma, Hwongwen

    2018-01-01

    Intense human activities have led to increasing deterioration of the watershed environment via pollutant discharge, which threatens human health and ecosystem function. To meet a need of comprehensive environmental impact/risk assessment for sustainable watershed development, a biogeochemical process-based life cycle assessment and risk assessment (RA) integration for pollutants aided by geographic information system is proposed in this study. The integration is to frame a conceptual protocol of "watershed life cycle assessment (WLCA) for pollutants". The proposed WLCA protocol consists of (1) geographic and environmental characterization mapping; (2) life cycle inventory analysis; (3) integration of life-cycle impact assessment (LCIA) with RA via characterization factor of pollutant of interest; and (4) result analysis and interpretation. The WLCA protocol can visualize results of LCIA and RA spatially for the pollutants of interest, which might be useful for decision or policy makers for mitigating impacts of watershed development.

  7. Integrated Safety and Security Risk Assessment Methods: A Survey of Key Characteristics and Applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chockalingam, Sabarathinam; Hadziosmanovic, D.; Pieters, Wolter; Texeira, Andre; van Gelder, Pieter

    2016-01-01

    Over the last years, we have seen several security incidents that compromised system safety, of which some caused physical harm to people. Meanwhile, various risk assessment methods have been developed that integrate safety and security, and these could help to address the corresponding threats by

  8. An Entropy Approach to Disclosure Risk Assessment: Lessons from Real Applications and Simulated Domains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Airoldi, Edoardo M.; Bai, Xue; Malin, Bradley A.

    2011-01-01

    We live in an increasingly mobile world, which leads to the duplication of information across domains. Though organizations attempt to obscure the identities of their constituents when sharing information for worthwhile purposes, such as basic research, the uncoordinated nature of such environment can lead to privacy vulnerabilities. For instance, disparate healthcare providers can collect information on the same patient. Federal policy requires that such providers share “de-identified” sensitive data, such as biomedical (e.g., clinical and genomic) records. But at the same time, such providers can share identified information, devoid of sensitive biomedical data, for administrative functions. On a provider-by-provider basis, the biomedical and identified records appear unrelated, however, links can be established when multiple providers’ databases are studied jointly. The problem, known as trail disclosure, is a generalized phenomenon and occurs because an individual’s location access pattern can be matched across the shared databases. Due to technical and legal constraints, it is often difficult to coordinate between providers and thus it is critical to assess the disclosure risk in distributed environments, so that we can develop techniques to mitigate such risks. Research on privacy protection has so far focused on developing technologies to suppress or encrypt identifiers associated with sensitive information. There is growing body of work on the formal assessment of the disclosure risk of database entries in publicly shared databases, but a less attention has been paid to the distributed setting. In this research, we review the trail disclosure problem in several domains with known vulnerabilities and show that disclosure risk is influenced by the distribution of how people visit service providers. Based on empirical evidence, we propose an entropy metric for assessing such risk in shared databases prior to their release. This metric assesses risk by

  9. Application of risk assessment in upgrading safety and quality of radiochemical operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin, K.H.; Hightower, J.R.; Vaughen, V.C.A.

    1990-01-01

    A Comprehensive Safety Assessment and Upgrade Program (CSAUP) was commenced by the Chemical Technology Division (Chem Tech) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to achieve excellence in the safety and quality of its operations and condition of its facilities. In the course of conducting CSAUP, a number of issues of concern were identified. The safety risk of these issues has been assessed, and planned actions were prepared for those issues that require corrective actions or improvement/upgrading. The planned actions were evaluated on consideration for the uniqueness of Chem Tech facilities and operations to determine the risks (high, moderate or low) involved by failure to implement the actions. The risk was defined in terms of the frequency and severity of impact. Priority of categorized actions was based on the urgency of the actions. 2 refs., 1 fig., 3 tabs

  10. Direct potable reuse microbial risk assessment methodology: Sensitivity analysis and application to State log credit allocations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soller, Jeffrey A; Eftim, Sorina E; Nappier, Sharon P

    2018-01-01

    Understanding pathogen risks is a critically important consideration in the design of water treatment, particularly for potable reuse projects. As an extension to our published microbial risk assessment methodology to estimate infection risks associated with Direct Potable Reuse (DPR) treatment train unit process combinations, herein, we (1) provide an updated compilation of pathogen density data in raw wastewater and dose-response models; (2) conduct a series of sensitivity analyses to consider potential risk implications using updated data; (3) evaluate the risks associated with log credit allocations in the United States; and (4) identify reference pathogen reductions needed to consistently meet currently applied benchmark risk levels. Sensitivity analyses illustrated changes in cumulative annual risks estimates, the significance of which depends on the pathogen group driving the risk for a given treatment train. For example, updates to norovirus (NoV) raw wastewater values and use of a NoV dose-response approach, capturing the full range of uncertainty, increased risks associated with one of the treatment trains evaluated, but not the other. Additionally, compared to traditional log-credit allocation approaches, our results indicate that the risk methodology provides more nuanced information about how consistently public health benchmarks are achieved. Our results indicate that viruses need to be reduced by 14 logs or more to consistently achieve currently applied benchmark levels of protection associated with DPR. The refined methodology, updated model inputs, and log credit allocation comparisons will be useful to regulators considering DPR projects and design engineers as they consider which unit treatment processes should be employed for particular projects. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  11. Nanotechnologies in agriculture and food - an overview of different fields of application, risk assessment and public perception.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grobe, Antje; Rissanen, Mikko E

    2012-12-01

    Nanomaterials in agriculture and food are key issues of public and regulatory interest. Over the past ten years, patents for nanotechnological applications in the field of food and agriculture have become abundant. Uncertainty prevails however regarding their current development status and presence in the consumer market. Thus, the discussion on nanotechnologies in the food sector with its specific public perception of benefits and risks and the patterns of communication are becoming similar to the debate on genetically modified organisms. The food industry's silence in communication increased mistrust of consumer organisations and policy makers. The article discusses the background of the current regulatory debates, starting with the EU recommendation for defining nanomaterials, provides an overview of possible fields of application in agriculture and food industries and discusses risk assessment and the public debate on benefits and risks. Communicative recommendations are directed at researchers, the food industry and regulators in order to increase trust both in stakeholders, risk management and regulatory processes.

  12. Erosion risk assessment in the southern Amazon - Data Preprocessing, data base application and process based modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schindewolf, Marcus; Herrmann, Marie-Kristin; Herrmann, Anne-Katrin; Schultze, Nico; Amorim, Ricardo S. S.; Schmidt, Jürgen

    2015-04-01

    The study region along the BR 16 highway belongs to the "Deforestation Arc" at the southern border of the Amazon rainforest. At the same time, it incorporates a land use gradient as colonization started in the 1975-1990 in Central Mato Grosso in 1990 in northern Mato Grosso and most recently in 2004-2005 in southern Pará. Based on present knowledge soil erosion is one of the key driver of soil degradation. Hence, there is a strong need to implement soil erosion control measures in eroding landscapes. Planning and dimensioning of such measures require reliable and detailed information on the temporal and spatial distribution of soil loss, sediment transport and deposition. Soil erosion models are increasingly used, in order to simulate the physical processes involved and to predict the effects of soil erosion control measures. The process based EROSION 3D simulation model is used for surveying soil erosion and deposition on regional catchments. Although EROSION 3D is a widespread, extensively validated model, the application of the model on regional scale remains challenging due to the enormous data requirements and complex data processing operations. In this context the study includes the compilation, validation and generalisation of existing land use and soil data in order to generate a consistent EROSION 3D input datasets. As a part of this process a GIS-linked data base application allows to transfer the original soil and land use data into model specific parameter files. This combined methodology provides different risk assessment maps for certain demands on regional scale. Besides soil loss and sediment transport, sediment pass over points into surface water bodies and particle enrichment can be simulated using the EROSION 3D model. Thus the estimation of particle bound nutrient and pollutant inputs into surface water bodies becomes possible. The study ended up in a user-friendly, timesaving and improved software package for the simulation of soil loss and

  13. Application of Bayesian networks in a hierarchical structure for environmental risk assessment: a case study of the Gabric Dam, Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malekmohammadi, Bahram; Tayebzadeh Moghadam, Negar

    2018-04-13

    Environmental risk assessment (ERA) is a commonly used, effective tool applied to reduce adverse effects of environmental risk factors. In this study, ERA was investigated using the Bayesian network (BN) model based on a hierarchical structure of variables in an influence diagram (ID). ID facilitated ranking of the different alternatives under uncertainty that were then used to evaluate comparisons of the different risk factors. BN was used to present a new model for ERA applicable to complicated development projects such as dam construction. The methodology was applied to the Gabric Dam, in southern Iran. The main environmental risk factors in the region, presented by the Gabric Dam, were identified based on the Delphi technique and specific features of the study area. These included the following: flood, water pollution, earthquake, changes in land use, erosion and sedimentation, effects on the population, and ecosensitivity. These risk factors were then categorized based on results from the output decision node of the BN, including expected utility values for risk factors in the decision node. ERA was performed for the Gabric Dam using the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) method to compare results of BN modeling with those of conventional methods. Results determined that a BN-based hierarchical structure to ERA present acceptable and reasonable risk assessment prioritization in proposing suitable solutions to reduce environmental risks and can be used as a powerful decision support system for evaluating environmental risks.

  14. Preliminary results from the application of risk matrix method for safety assessment in industrial radiography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lopez G, A.; Cruz, D.; Truppa, W.; Aravena, M.; Tamayo, B.

    2015-09-01

    Although the uses of ionizing radiation in industry are subject to procedures that provide a high level of safety, experience has shown that equipment failure, human errors, or the combination of both that can trigger accidental exposures may occur. Traditionally, the radiation safety checks whether these industrial practices (industrial radiography, industrial irradiators, among others) are sufficiently safe to prevent similar accidental exposures already occurred, so that becomes dependent on the published information and not always answers questions like: What other events can occur, or what other risks are present? Taking into account the results achieved by the Foro Iberoamericano de Organismos Reguladores Radiologicos y Nucleares, its leading position in the use of techniques of risk analysis in radioactive facilities and the need to develop a proactive approach to the prevention of accidents arising from the use of ionizing radiations in the industry, it intends to apply the risk analysis technique known as Risk Matrix to a hypothetical reference entity for the region in which industrial radiography is performed. In this paper the results of the first stage of this study are shown, that is the identification of initiating events (IE) and barriers that help mitigate the consequences of such IE, so that can appreciate the applicability of this method to industrial radiography services, to reduce the risk to acceptable levels. The fundamental advantage associated with the application of this methodology is that can be applied by the professionals working in the service and identifies specific weaknesses that from the point of view of safety there, so they can be prioritized resources depending on risk reduction. (Author)

  15. Residue behavior and risk assessment of imidacloprid applied on greenhouse-cultivated strawberries under different application conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cang, Tao; Sun, Caixia; Zhao, Hua; Tang, Tao; Zhang, Changpeng; Yu, Ruixian; Wang, Xinquan; Wang, Qiang; Dai, Fen; Zhao, Xueping

    2018-02-01

    A risk assessment for imidacloprid applied on strawberries under different conditions was performed after residue determination using the quick, cheap, effective, rugged, and safe (QuEChERS) method. The application conditions were varied according to the applied dosage, addition of a plant oil or organosilicon surfactant, water volume, and sprayer type. The degradation dynamics of imidacloprid on strawberries followed first-order kinetics. At applied doses of 30-60 g a.i. ha -1 , the half-lives of imidacloprid were 2.89-3.46, 1.98-3.65, and 2.57-2.77 days after application without a surfactant or with a plant oil or organosilicon surfactant, respectively. For water volumes of 112.5, 225, 450, 675, and 900 L ha -1 , the half-lives of imidacloprid applied in the presence of the plant oil surfactant were 3.30, 7.70, 5.33, 7.70, and 6.30 days, respectively. The half-lives after application with a knapsack mist duster, electric sprayer, and manual sprayer were 2.16, 5.77, and 7.70 days, respectively. The health risk assessment revealed risk quotients less than 1 in all cases, indicating that the application of imidacloprid poses a low health risk to humans after a pre-harvest interval of 10 days under our application conditions. The risk assessment results can provide reference data for setting a reasonable maximum residue limit for imidacloprid on strawberries in China.

  16. Application of Bayesian network to the probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Chang-Ju; Lee, Kun Jai

    2006-01-01

    The scenario in a risk analysis can be defined as the propagating feature of specific initiating event which can go to a wide range of undesirable consequences. If we take various scenarios into consideration, the risk analysis becomes more complex than do without them. A lot of risk analyses have been performed to actually estimate a risk profile under both uncertain future states of hazard sources and undesirable scenarios. Unfortunately, in case of considering specific systems such as a radioactive waste disposal facility, since the behaviour of future scenarios is hardly predicted without special reasoning process, we cannot estimate their risk only with a traditional risk analysis methodology. Moreover, we believe that the sources of uncertainty at future states can be reduced pertinently by setting up dependency relationships interrelating geological, hydrological, and ecological aspects of the site with all the scenarios. It is then required current methodology of uncertainty analysis of the waste disposal facility be revisited under this belief. In order to consider the effects predicting from an evolution of environmental conditions of waste disposal facilities, this paper proposes a quantitative assessment framework integrating the inference process of Bayesian network to the traditional probabilistic risk analysis. We developed and verified an approximate probabilistic inference program for the specific Bayesian network using a bounded-variance likelihood weighting algorithm. Ultimately, specific models, including a model for uncertainty propagation of relevant parameters were developed with a comparison of variable-specific effects due to the occurrence of diverse altered evolution scenarios (AESs). After providing supporting information to get a variety of quantitative expectations about the dependency relationship between domain variables and AESs, we could connect the results of probabilistic inference from the Bayesian network with the consequence

  17. Contribution to Risk Analysis of a Standard Brewery: Application of a Hygiene Assessment System Survey

    OpenAIRE

    Raposo, António; Salazar, Jairo; Pérez, Esteban; Sanjuán, Esther; Carrascosa, Conrado; Saavedra, Pedro; Millán, Rafael

    2013-01-01

    "Beer is a food product with a high consumption in Gran Canaria and the brewery industry is also present in this island. In order to carry out this study, it was designed a survey to assist in the assessment of risks from the facilities and infrastructures of the brewery, the raw materials used in the beer production and the HACCP (Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points) plan. An initial assessment of various aspects of the industry has been conducted at the beginning of hygienic-sani...

  18. Optimum cooling of data centers application of risk assessment and mitigation techniques

    CERN Document Server

    Dai, Jun; Das, Diganta; Pecht, Michael G

    2014-01-01

    This book provides data center designers and operators with methods by which to assess and mitigate the risks associated with utilization of optimum cooling solutions. The goal is to provide readers with sufficient knowledge to implement measures such as free air cooling or direct liquid immersion cooling properly, or combination of existing and emerging cooling technologies in data centers, base stations, and server farms. This book also: Discusses various telecommunication infrastructures, with an emphasis on data centers and base stations Covers the most commonly known energy and power management techniques, as well as emerging cooling solutions for data centers Describes the risks to the electronic equipment fitted in these installations and the methods of risk mitigation Devotes  a particular focus to an up-to-date review of the emerging cooling methods (such as free air cooling and direct liquid immersion cooling) and tools and best practices for designers, technology developers, installation operators...

  19. Application of probabilistic risk assessment to nuclear fuel reprocessing at the Savannah River Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Durant, W.S.

    1980-01-01

    The Savannah River Laboratory has developed an integrated risk assessment methodology that has been applied to systems in the nuclear fuel reprocessing facilities at the Savannah River Plant. The methodology can be applied to several types of design and operational problems. Basically, the analysis is subdivided into individual modules that can be either utilized separately or integrated into an overall risk analysis. Computer codes and computer data banks are utilized extensively to minimize the manual effort. The flow of information begins with a definition of the system to be analyzed followed by an evaluation of sources of fault information, storage of this information in data banks, design analysis and data treatment, risk calculations, and end product options

  20. Licensing topical report: application of probabilistic risk assessment in the selection of design basis accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Houghton, W.J.

    1980-06-01

    A probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach is proposed to be used to scrutinize selection of accident sequences. A technique is described in this Licensing Topical Report to identify candidates for Design Basis Accidents (DBAs) utilizing the risk assessment results. As a part of this technique, it is proposed that events with frequencies below a specified limit would not be candidates. The use of the methodology described is supplementary to the traditional, deterministic approach and may result, in some cases, in the selection of multiple failure sequences as DBAs; it may also provide a basis for not considering some traditionally postulated events as being DBAs. A process is then described for selecting a list of DBAs based on the candidates from PRA as supplementary to knowledge and judgments from past licensing practice. These DBAs would be the events considered in Chapter 15 of Safety Analysis Reports of high-temperature gas-cooled reactors

  1. How information resources are used by state agencies in risk assessment applications - Illinois

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olson, C.S.

    1990-12-31

    The Environmental Protection Agency of the State of Illinois (Illinois EPA) has programs in water, air, and land pollution and water supplies paralleling those of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The organization is part of a tripartite arrangement in which the Pollution Control Board is the judicial arm, the Department of Energy and Natural Resources is the research arm, and the Illinois EPA is the enforcement arm. Other state agencies are also concerned with various aspects of the environment and may do risk assessments for chemicals. Although there are various risk assessment activities, both formal and informal, in our agency and in others, this paper will discuss only recent initiatives in water quality criteria.

  2. Probabilistic disaggregation model with application to natural hazard risk assessment of portfolios

    OpenAIRE

    Custer, Rocco; Nishijima, Kazuyoshi

    2012-01-01

    In natural hazard risk assessment, a resolution mismatch between hazard data and aggregated exposure data is often observed. A possible solution to this issue is the disaggregation of exposure data to match the spatial resolution of hazard data. Disaggregation models available in literature are usually deterministic and make use of auxiliary indicator, such as land cover, to spatially distribute exposures. As the dependence between auxiliary indicator and disaggregated number of exposures is ...

  3. A systems approach to risk assessment: Application to methylmercury from coal combustion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saroff, L. [Dept. of Energy, Washington, DC (United States); Lipfert, F.W.; Moskowitz, P.D. [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States)

    1995-01-01

    The Department of Energy (DOE) asked Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) to perform a probabilistic assessment of the health risks associated with Hg from coal-fired power plants. The objective of the assessment is to estimate the incremental health risks that might ensue from a typical coal-fired power plant, together with their uncertainties, taking into account existing background levels and the actual adverse health effects that have previously been associated with exposure to various Hg species. Mercury has a long history of association with adverse neurological effects at high exposure levels. The most important current exposure pathway has been found to be ingestion of fish containing methylmercury (MeHg), which is the end product of bioconcentration moving up the aquatic food chain. Mercury can enter natural waters from either industrial discharges or from atmospheric deposition of various inorganic Ho. compounds. Because of the worldwide background and the existence of local emissions sources, Hg deposition must be considered on local, regional and global scales. The regulatory technical challenge presented by methy1mercury is to protect public health without foreclosing an appreciable a portion of the food supply or impacting on the lifestyles of North American native populations. This paper presents an abbreviated account of the DOE/BNL risk assessment, as viewed from a systems perspective. We review the structure of the model, the sources of data used, the assumptions that were made, and the interpretation of the findings. Since publication of the first risk assessment report, we have refined our estimates of local atmospheric dispersion and deposition and {open_quotes}calibrated{close_quotes} the pharmacokinetic portion of the model against observations.

  4. Assessment of cardiovascular risk.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2010-10-01

    Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most common cause of death worldwide. Usually atherosclerosis is caused by the combined effects of multiple risk factors. For this reason, most guidelines on the prevention of CVD stress the assessment of total CVD risk. The most intensive risk factor modification can then be directed towards the individuals who will derive the greatest benefit. To assist the clinician in calculating the effects of these multiple interacting risk factors, a number of risk estimation systems have been developed. This review address several issues regarding total CVD risk assessment: Why should total CVD risk be assessed? What risk estimation systems are available? How well do these systems estimate risk? What are the advantages and disadvantages of the current systems? What are the current limitations of risk estimation systems and how can they be resolved? What new developments have occurred in CVD risk estimation?

  5. A globally applicable location-specific screening model for assessing the relative risk of pesticide leaching

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Whelan, M.J.; Davenport, E.J.; Smith, B.G.

    2007-01-01

    A screening model of pesticide leaching loss is described which forms part of a multi-criteria risk-based indicator system called PRoMPT (Pesticide Risk Management and Profiling Tool). The leaching model evaluates pesticide fate in soil for any application rate and time of application (including multiple applications), for any land-based location in the world. It considers a generic evaluative environment with fixed dimensions and soil properties. The soil profile is conceptualised as a number of discrete layers. Equilibrium partitioning between adsorbed and dissolved chemical (based on the organic carbon-water partition coefficient [K OC ]) is assumed in each time step, in each layer. Non-leaching losses are described using first order kinetics. Drainage is assumed to be uniform throughout the soil profile but varies temporally. The drainage rate, which can be augmented by evapotranspiration-adjusted irrigation, is derived from long-term mean monthly water balance model calculations performed for 30 arc-minute grid cells across the entire ice-free land surface of the earth. Although, such predictions are approximate, they do capture the seasonality and relative magnitude of drainage and allow the model to be applied anywhere, without the need for extensive data compilation. PRoMPT predictions are shown to be consistent with those made by more sophisticated models (PRZM, PELMO and PEARL) for the FOCUS groundwater scenarios

  6. A globally applicable location-specific screening model for assessing the relative risk of pesticide leaching

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Whelan, M.J. [Unilever Safety and Environmental Assurance Centre, Colworth House, Sharnbrook, Bedfordshire, MK44 1LQ (United Kingdom)]. E-mail: mick.whelan@unilever.com; Davenport, E.J. [Unilever Safety and Environmental Assurance Centre, Colworth House, Sharnbrook, Bedfordshire, MK44 1LQ (United Kingdom); Smith, B.G. [Unilever Sustainable Agriculture Team, Colworth House, Sharnbrook, Bedfordshire, MK44 1LQ (United Kingdom)

    2007-05-15

    A screening model of pesticide leaching loss is described which forms part of a multi-criteria risk-based indicator system called PRoMPT (Pesticide Risk Management and Profiling Tool). The leaching model evaluates pesticide fate in soil for any application rate and time of application (including multiple applications), for any land-based location in the world. It considers a generic evaluative environment with fixed dimensions and soil properties. The soil profile is conceptualised as a number of discrete layers. Equilibrium partitioning between adsorbed and dissolved chemical (based on the organic carbon-water partition coefficient [K {sub OC}]) is assumed in each time step, in each layer. Non-leaching losses are described using first order kinetics. Drainage is assumed to be uniform throughout the soil profile but varies temporally. The drainage rate, which can be augmented by evapotranspiration-adjusted irrigation, is derived from long-term mean monthly water balance model calculations performed for 30 arc-minute grid cells across the entire ice-free land surface of the earth. Although, such predictions are approximate, they do capture the seasonality and relative magnitude of drainage and allow the model to be applied anywhere, without the need for extensive data compilation. PRoMPT predictions are shown to be consistent with those made by more sophisticated models (PRZM, PELMO and PEARL) for the FOCUS groundwater scenarios.

  7. Assessments and applications to enhance human reliability and reduce risk during less-than-full-power operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hannaman, G.W.; Singh, A.

    1992-01-01

    Study of events, interviews with plant personnel, and applications of risk studies indicate that the risk of a potential accident during less-than-full-power (LTFP) operation is becoming a greater fraction of the risk as improvements are made to the full-power operations. Industry efforts have been increased to reduce risk and the cost of shutdown operations. These efforts consider the development and application of advanced tools to help utilities proactively identify issues and develop contingencies and interventions to enhance reliability and reduce risk of low-power operations at nuclear power plants. The role for human reliability assessments is to help improve utility outage planning to better achieve schedule and risk control objectives. Improvements are expected to include intervention tools to identify and reduce human error, definition of new instructional modules, and prioritization of risk reduction issues for operators. The Electric Power Research Institute is sponsoring a project to address the identification and quantification of factors that affect human reliability during LTFP operation of nuclear power plants. The results of this project are expected to promote the development of proactively applied interventions and contingencies for enhanced human reliability during shutdown operations

  8. Hazard waste risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hawley, K.A.; Napier, B.A.

    1986-01-01

    Pacific Northwest Laboratory continued to provide technical assistance to the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Operational Safety (OOS) in the area of risk assessment for hazardous and radioactive-mixed waste management. The overall objective is to provide technical assistance to OOS in developing cost-effective risk assessment tools and strategies for bringing DOE facilities into compliance with the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA or Superfund) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA). Major efforts during FY 1985 included (1) completing the modification of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Hazard Ranking System (HRS) and developing training manuals and courses to assist in field office implementation of the modified Hazard Ranking System (mHRS); (2) initiating the development of a system for reviewing field office HRS/mHRS evaluations for appropriate use of data and appropriate application of the methodology; (3) initiating the development of a data base management system to maintain all field office HRS/mHRS scoring sheets and to support the master OOS environmental data base system; (4) developing implementation guidance for Phase I of the DOE CERCLA Program, Installation Assessment; (5) continuing to develop an objective, scientifically based methodology for DOE management to use in establishing priorities for conducting site assessments under Phase II of the DOE CERCLA Program, Confirmation; and (6) participating in developing the DOE response to EPA on the proposed listing of three sites on the National Priorities List

  9. Applications of contaminant fate and bioaccumulation models in assessing ecological risks of chemicals: A case study for gasoline hydrocarbons

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    MacLeod, Matthew; McKone, Thomas E.; Foster, Karen L.; Maddalena, Randy L.; Parkerton, Thomas F.; Mackay, Don

    2004-02-01

    Mass balance models of chemical fate and transport can be applied in ecological risk assessments for quantitative estimation of concentrations in air, water, soil and sediment. These concentrations can, in turn, be used to estimate organism exposures and ultimately internal tissue concentrations that can be compared to mode-of-action-based critical body residues that correspond to toxic effects. From this comparison, risks to the exposed organism can be evaluated. To illustrate the practical utility of fate models in ecological risk assessments of commercial products, the EQC model and a simple screening level biouptake model including three organisms, (a bird, a mammal and a fish) is applied to gasoline. In this analysis, gasoline is divided into 24 components or ''blocks'' with similar environmental fate properties that are assumed to elicit ecotoxicity via a narcotic mode of action. Results demonstrate that differences in chemical properties and mode of entry into the environment lead to profound differences in the efficiency of transport from emission to target biota. We discuss the implications of these results and insights gained into the regional fate and ecological risks associated with gasoline. This approach is particularly suitable for assessing mixtures of components that have similar modes of action. We conclude that the model-based methodologies presented are widely applicable for screening level ecological risk assessments that support effective chemicals management.

  10. Evaluation of nuclear accidents consequences. Risk assessment methodologies, current status and applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodriguez, J.M.

    1996-01-01

    General description of the structure and process of the probabilistic methods of assessment the external consequences in the event of nuclear accidents is presented. attention is paid in the interface with Probabilistic Safety Analysis level 3 results (source term evaluation) Also are described key issues in accident consequence evaluation as: effects evaluated (early and late health effects and economic effects due to countermeasures), presentation of accident consequences results, computer codes. Briefly are presented some relevant areas for the applications of Accident Consequence Evaluation

  11. Assessment of ISLOCA risk: Methodology and application to a Westinghouse four-loop ice condenser plant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kelly, D.L.; Auflick, J.L.; Haney, L.N. [EG and G Idaho, Inc., Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    1992-04-01

    Inter-system loss-of-coolant accidents (ISLOCAs) have been identified as important contributors to offsite risk for some nuclear power plants. A methodology has been developed for identifying and evaluating plant-specific hardware designs, human factors issues, and accident consequence factors relevant to the estimation of ISLOCA core damage frequency and risk. This report presents a detailed description of the application of this analysis methodology to a Westinghouse four-loop ice condenser plant. This document also includes appendices A through I which provide: System descriptions; ISLOCA event trees; human reliability analysis; thermal hydraulic analysis; core uncovery timing calculations; calculation of system rupture probability; ISLOCA consequences analysis; uncertainty analysis; and component failure analysis.

  12. Assessment of ISLOCA risk: Methodology and application to a Westinghouse four-loop ice condenser plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kelly, D.L.; Auflick, J.L.; Haney, L.N.

    1992-04-01

    Inter-system loss-of-coolant accidents (ISLOCAs) have been identified as important contributors to offsite risk for some nuclear power plants. A methodology has been developed for identifying and evaluating plant-specific hardware designs, human factors issues, and accident consequence factors relevant to the estimation of ISLOCA core damage frequency and risk. This report presents a detailed description of the application of this analysis methodology to a Westinghouse four-loop ice condenser plant. This document also includes appendices A through I which provide: System descriptions; ISLOCA event trees; human reliability analysis; thermal hydraulic analysis; core uncovery timing calculations; calculation of system rupture probability; ISLOCA consequences analysis; uncertainty analysis; and component failure analysis

  13. GM Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparrow, Penny A. C.

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

  14. Potency values from the local lymph node assay: application to classification, labelling and risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loveless, S E; Api, A-M; Crevel, R W R; Debruyne, E; Gamer, A; Jowsey, I R; Kern, P; Kimber, I; Lea, L; Lloyd, P; Mehmood, Z; Steiling, W; Veenstra, G; Woolhiser, M; Hennes, C

    2010-02-01

    Hundreds of chemicals are contact allergens but there remains a need to identify and characterise accurately skin sensitising hazards. The purpose of this review was fourfold. First, when using the local lymph node assay (LLNA), consider whether an exposure concentration (EC3 value) lower than 100% can be defined and used as a threshold criterion for classification and labelling. Second, is there any reason to revise the recommendation of a previous ECETOC Task Force regarding specific EC3 values used for sub-categorisation of substances based upon potency? Third, what recommendations can be made regarding classification and labelling of preparations under GHS? Finally, consider how to integrate LLNA data into risk assessment and provide a rationale for using concentration responses and corresponding no-effect concentrations. Although skin sensitising chemicals having high EC3 values may represent only relatively low risks to humans, it is not possible currently to define an EC3 value below 100% that would serve as an appropriate threshold for classification and labelling. The conclusion drawn from reviewing the use of distinct categories for characterising contact allergens was that the most appropriate, science-based classification of contact allergens according to potency is one in which four sub-categories are identified: 'extreme', 'strong', 'moderate' and 'weak'. Since draining lymph node cell proliferation is related causally and quantitatively to potency, LLNA EC3 values are recommended for determination of a no expected sensitisation induction level that represents the first step in quantitative risk assessment. 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Application of ecological risk assessment principles to evaluation of oil spill impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brannon, E.L.; Neff, J.M.; Pearson, W.H.; Stubblefield, W.A.; Maki, A.W.

    1995-01-01

    Ecological risk assessments are often used prospectively to predict the consequences of human activities on the environment. Laboratory and field studies were conducted to evaluate the ecological impacts to commercial fishery resources resulting from the Exxon Valdez oil spill. Using the ecorisk paradigm, each of the studies correlated concentrations of petroleum hydrocarbons in different environmental compartments with observed biological effects in local populations of herring and pink salmon. Hydrocarbon concentrations in the water column of the Sound were elevated for a short time after the spill, but 99.7% of the samples remained below the Alaska water quality standard and returned to background levels within a few months. PAH concentrations in sediments and eggs correlated with a very low degree of injury to early life stages of herring and salmon. Overall, effects of the spill on populations of herring and pink salmon were minimal and post-spill harvests of the year classes at greater risk of spill injury in the two years following the spill were at or near record levels. The program underscores the utility and strength of the risk assessment paradigm to identify contaminant related injury while considering effects attributable to natural ecosystem variability

  16. Probabilistic disaggregation model with application to natural hazard risk assessment of portfolios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Custer, Rocco; Nishijima, Kazuyoshi

    In natural hazard risk assessment, a resolution mismatch between hazard data and aggregated exposure data is often observed. A possible solution to this issue is the disaggregation of exposure data to match the spatial resolution of hazard data. Disaggregation models available in literature...... disaggregation model that considers the uncertainty in the disaggregation, taking basis in the scaled Dirichlet distribution. The proposed probabilistic disaggregation model is applied to a portfolio of residential buildings in the Canton Bern, Switzerland, subject to flood risk. Thereby, the model is verified...... are usually deterministic and make use of auxiliary indicator, such as land cover, to spatially distribute exposures. As the dependence between auxiliary indicator and disaggregated number of exposures is generally imperfect, uncertainty arises in disaggregation. This paper therefore proposes a probabilistic...

  17. Insights into location dependent loss-of-coolant-accident (LOCA) frequency assessment for GSI-191 risk-informed applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fleming, K.N., E-mail: KarlFleming@comcast.net [KNF Consulting LLC, Spokane, WA (United States); Lydell, B.O.Y. [SIGMA-PHASE INC., Vail, AZ (United States)

    2016-08-15

    Highlights: • Role of operating experience in loss-of-coolant-accident (LOCA) frequency assessment. • Plant-to-plant variability in calculated LOCA frequency. • Frequency of double-ended-guillotine-break (DEGB). • Uncertainties in LOCA frequencies. • Risk management insights. - Abstract: As a tribute to the published work by S.H. Bush, S. Beliczey and H. Schulz, this paper assesses the progress with methods and techniques for quantifying the reliability of piping systems in commercial nuclear power plants on the basis of failure rate estimates derived from field experience data in combination with insights and results from probabilistic fracture mechanics analyses and expert elicitation exercises. This status assessment is made from a technical perspective obtained through development of location-specific loss-of-coolant-accident (LOCA) frequencies for input to risk-informed resolution of the generic safety issue (GSI) 191. The methods and techniques on which these GSI-191 applications are based build on a body of work developed by the authors during a period spanning more than two decades. The insights that are presented and discussed in this paper cover today’s knowledge base concerning how to utilize a risk-informed approach to the assessment of piping reliability in the context of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in general and the resolution of GSI-191 in particular. Specifically the paper addresses the extent to which LOCA frequencies vary from location to location within a reactor coolant system pressure boundary (RCPB) for a given plant as well as vary from plant to plant, and the reasons for these variabilities. Furthermore, the paper provides the authors’ perspectives on interpretations and applications of information extracted from an expert elicitation process to obtain LOCA frequencies as documented in NUREG-1829 and how to apply this information to GSI-191. Finally, this paper documents technical insights relative to mitigation of

  18. Insights into location dependent loss-of-coolant-accident (LOCA) frequency assessment for GSI-191 risk-informed applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleming, K.N.; Lydell, B.O.Y.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Role of operating experience in loss-of-coolant-accident (LOCA) frequency assessment. • Plant-to-plant variability in calculated LOCA frequency. • Frequency of double-ended-guillotine-break (DEGB). • Uncertainties in LOCA frequencies. • Risk management insights. - Abstract: As a tribute to the published work by S.H. Bush, S. Beliczey and H. Schulz, this paper assesses the progress with methods and techniques for quantifying the reliability of piping systems in commercial nuclear power plants on the basis of failure rate estimates derived from field experience data in combination with insights and results from probabilistic fracture mechanics analyses and expert elicitation exercises. This status assessment is made from a technical perspective obtained through development of location-specific loss-of-coolant-accident (LOCA) frequencies for input to risk-informed resolution of the generic safety issue (GSI) 191. The methods and techniques on which these GSI-191 applications are based build on a body of work developed by the authors during a period spanning more than two decades. The insights that are presented and discussed in this paper cover today’s knowledge base concerning how to utilize a risk-informed approach to the assessment of piping reliability in the context of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in general and the resolution of GSI-191 in particular. Specifically the paper addresses the extent to which LOCA frequencies vary from location to location within a reactor coolant system pressure boundary (RCPB) for a given plant as well as vary from plant to plant, and the reasons for these variabilities. Furthermore, the paper provides the authors’ perspectives on interpretations and applications of information extracted from an expert elicitation process to obtain LOCA frequencies as documented in NUREG-1829 and how to apply this information to GSI-191. Finally, this paper documents technical insights relative to mitigation of

  19. Application of Bayesian network methodology to the probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear waste disposal facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Chang Ju

    2006-02-01

    The scenario in a risk analysis can be defined as the propagating feature of specific initiating event which can go to a wide range of undesirable consequences. If one takes various scenarios into consideration, the risk analysis becomes more complex than do without them. A lot of risk analyses have been performed to actually estimate a risk profile under both uncertain future states of hazard sources and undesirable scenarios. Unfortunately, in case of considering some stochastic passive systems such as a radioactive waste disposal facility, since the behaviour of future scenarios is hardly predicted without special reasoning process, we cannot estimate their risk only with a traditional risk analysis methodology. Moreover, it is believed that the sources of uncertainty at future states can be reduced pertinently by setting up dependency relationships interrelating geological, hydrological, and ecological aspects of the site with all the scenarios. It is then required current methodology of uncertainty analysis of the waste disposal facility be revisited under this belief. In order to consider the effects predicting from an evolution of environmental conditions of waste disposal facilities, this study proposes a quantitative assessment framework integrating the inference process of Bayesian network to the traditional probabilistic risk analysis. In this study an approximate probabilistic inference program for the specific Bayesian network developed and verified using a bounded-variance likelihood weighting algorithm. Ultimately, specific models, including a Monte-Carlo model for uncertainty propagation of relevant parameters, were developed with a comparison of variable-specific effects due to the occurrence of diverse altered evolution scenarios (AESs). After providing supporting information to get a variety of quantitative expectations about the dependency relationship between domain variables and AESs, this study could connect the results of probabilistic

  20. An Application of the Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM) to Risk Assessment of Organisational Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hollnagel, Erik [MINES ParisTech Crisis and Risk Research Centre (CRC), Sophia Antipolis Cedex (France)

    2012-11-15

    The objective of this study was to demonstrate an alternative approach to risk assessment of organisational changes, based on the principles of resilience engineering. The approach in question was the Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM). Whereas established approaches focus on risks coming from failure or malfunctioning of components, alone or in combination, resilience engineering focuses on the common functions and processes that provide the basis for both successes and failures. Resilience engineering more precisely proposes that failures represent the flip side of the adaptations necessary to cope with the real world complexity rather than a failure of normal system functions and that a safety assessment therefore should focus on how functions are carried out rather than on how they may fail. The objective of this study was not to evaluate the current approach to risk assessment used by the organisation in question. The current approach has nevertheless been used as a frame of reference, but in a non-evaluative manner. The author has demonstrated through the selected case that FRAM can be used as an alternative approach to organizational changes. The report provides the reader with details to consider when making a decision on what analysis approach to use. The choice of which approach to use must reflect priorities and concerns of the organisation and the author makes no statement about which approach is better. It is clear that the choice of an analysis approach is not so simple to make and there are many things to take into account such as the larger working environment, organisational culture, regulatory requirements, etc.

  1. An Application of the Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM) to Risk Assessment of Organisational Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hollnagel, Erik

    2012-11-01

    The objective of this study was to demonstrate an alternative approach to risk assessment of organisational changes, based on the principles of resilience engineering. The approach in question was the Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM). Whereas established approaches focus on risks coming from failure or malfunctioning of components, alone or in combination, resilience engineering focuses on the common functions and processes that provide the basis for both successes and failures. Resilience engineering more precisely proposes that failures represent the flip side of the adaptations necessary to cope with the real world complexity rather than a failure of normal system functions and that a safety assessment therefore should focus on how functions are carried out rather than on how they may fail. The objective of this study was not to evaluate the current approach to risk assessment used by the organisation in question. The current approach has nevertheless been used as a frame of reference, but in a non-evaluative manner. The author has demonstrated through the selected case that FRAM can be used as an alternative approach to organizational changes. The report provides the reader with details to consider when making a decision on what analysis approach to use. The choice of which approach to use must reflect priorities and concerns of the organisation and the author makes no statement about which approach is better. It is clear that the choice of an analysis approach is not so simple to make and there are many things to take into account such as the larger working environment, organisational culture, regulatory requirements, etc

  2. Strategic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derleth, Jason; Lobia, Marcus

    2009-01-01

    This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.

  3. [Forensic assessment of violence risk].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L

    2014-03-01

    Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

  4. Risk assessment for job burnout with a mobile health web application using questionnaire data: a proof of concept study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Känel, Roland; van Nuffel, Marc; Fuchs, Walther J

    2016-01-01

    Job burnout has become a rampant epidemic in working societies, causing high productivity loss and healthcare costs. An easy accessible tool to detect clinically relevant risk may bear the potential to timely avert the dire sequelae of burnout. As a start, we performed a proof of concept study to test the utilization of a mobile health web application for a free and anonymous burnout risk assessment with established questionnaires. We designed a client-side javascript web application for users who filled out demographic and psychometric data forms over the internet. Users were recruited through social media, back links from hospital websites, and search engine optimization. Similar to population-based studies, we used the Maslach Burnout Inventory-General Survey (MBI-GS) to calculate a burnout risk index (BRIX). As additional mental health burden indices, users filled out the Perceived Stress Scale, Insomina Severity Index, and Profile of Mood States. Within six months, the MBI-GS was completed by 11,311 users (median age 33 years, 85 % women) of whom 20.0 % had no clinically relevant burnout risk, 54.7 % had mild-to-moderate risk, and 25.3 % had high risk. In the 2947 users completing all questionnaires, female sex ( B  = -0.03), cohabiting ( B  = -0.03), negative affect ( B  = 0.46), positive affect ( B  = -0.20), perceived stress ( B  = 0.18), and insomnia symptoms ( B  = 0.04) explained 56.2 % of the variance in the continuously scaled BRIX. The reliability was good to excellent for all psychometric scales. The weighting of the BRIX with mental health burden indices primarily modified the risk in users with mild-to-moderate burnout risk. A low-threshold web application can reliably assess the risk of job burnout. As the bulk of users had clinically relevant burnout scores, a web application may be useful to target employees at risk. The clinical value of the BRIX and its modification with coexistent/absent mental health burden

  5. Summary of PRA assessment of transient accident risks, human factors considerations, and PRA methods and applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carnino, A.

    1984-01-01

    This chapter reviews the progress made in the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) area to help in solving operational transient problems and to integrate human factors considerations, as discussed at the American Nuclear Society Topical Meeting on Anticipated and Abnormal Plant Transients in Light Water Reactors. Topics considered include core-melt frequency, external events (e.g., fires, floods), diagnostic errors, and operator aids. It is concluded that confidence in PRA results, predictions and uses for decisions in both the safety of the plants and their availability will improve

  6. Assessing residential buildings value in Spain for risk analyses. Application to the landslide hazard in the Autonomous Community of Valencia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cantarino, I.; Torrijo, F. J.; Palencia, S.; Gielen, E.

    2014-05-01

    This paper proposes a method of valuing the stock of residential buildings in Spain as the first step in assessing possible damage caused to them by natural hazards. For the purposes of the study we had access to the SIOSE (the Spanish Land Use and Cover Information System), a high-resolution land-use model, as well as to a report on the financial valuations of this type of buildings throughout Spain. Using dasymetric disaggregation processes and GIS techniques we developed a geolocalized method of obtaining this information, which was the exposure variable in the general risk assessment formula. If hazard maps and risk assessment methods - the other variables - are available, the risk value can easily be obtained. An example of its application is given in a case study that assesses the risk of a landslide in the entire 23 200 km2 of the Valencia Autonomous Community (NUT2), the results of which are analyzed by municipal areas (LAU2) for the years 2005 and 2009.

  7. Ecological risk assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Suter, Glenn W; Barnthouse, L. W. (Lawrence W)

    2007-01-01

    Ecological risk assessment is commonly applied to the regulation of chemicals, the remediation of contaminated sites, the monitoring of importation of exotic organisms, the management of watersheds...

  8. Risk Assessment Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

  9. The development and application of an integrated radiological risk assessment procedure using time-dependent probabilistic risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laurens, J.M.; Thompson, B.G.J.; Sumerling, T.J.

    1990-01-01

    During the past decade, the UKDoE has funded the development of an integrated assessment procedure centred around probabilistic risk analysis (p.r.a.) using Monte Carlo simulation techniques to account for the effects of parameter value uncertainty, including those associated with temporal changes in the environment over a postclosure period of about one million years. The influence of these changes can now be incorporated explicitly into the p.r.a. simulator VANDAL (Variability ANalysis of Disposal ALternatives) briefly described here. Although a full statistically converged time-dependent p.r.a. will not be demonstrated until the current Dry Run 3 trial is complete, illustrative examples are given showing the ability of VANDAL to represent spatially complex groundwater and repository systems evolving under the influence of climatic change. 18 refs., 10 figs., 1 tab

  10. Drinking water studies: a review on heavy metal, application of biomarker and health risk assessment (a special focus in Malaysia).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ab Razak, Nurul Hafiza; Praveena, Sarva Mangala; Aris, Ahmad Zaharin; Hashim, Zailina

    2015-12-01

    Malaysia has abundant sources of drinking water from river and groundwater. However, rapid developments have deteriorated quality of drinking water sources in Malaysia. Heavy metal studies in terms of drinking water, applications of health risk assessment and bio-monitoring in Malaysia were reviewed from 2003 to 2013. Studies on heavy metal in drinking water showed the levels are under the permissible limits as suggested by World Health Organization and Malaysian Ministry of Health. Future studies on the applications of health risk assessment are crucial in order to understand the risk of heavy metal exposure through drinking water to Malaysian population. Among the biomarkers that have been reviewed, toenail is the most useful tool to evaluate body burden of heavy metal. Toenails are easy to collect, store, transport and analysed. This review will give a clear guidance for future studies of Malaysian drinking water. In this way, it will help risk managers to minimize the exposure at optimum level as well as the government to formulate policies in safe guarding the population. Copyright © 2015 Ministry of Health, Saudi Arabia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caskey, Susan Adele [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Gaudioso, Jennifer M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Wagner, Stefan M. [Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, MB (Canada). Canadian Science Centre for Human and Animal Health (CSCHAH); Shigematsu, Mika [National Inst. of Infectious Diseases (NIID), Tokyo (Japan); Risi, George [Infectious Disease Specialists, P.C, Missoula, MT (United States); Kozlovac, Joe [US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA)., Beltsville, MD (United States); Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke [Statens Serum Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Prat, Esmeralda [Bayer CropScience, Monheim am Rhein (Germany)

    2010-10-01

    Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.

  12. Offshore risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Vinnem, Jan-Erik

    2014-01-01

      Offshore Risk Assessment was the first book to deal with quantified risk assessment (QRA) as applied specifically to offshore installations and operations. Risk assessment techniques have been used for more than three decades in the offshore oil and gas industry, and their use is set to expand increasingly as the industry moves into new areas and faces new challenges in older regions.   This updated and expanded third edition has been informed by a major R&D program on offshore risk assessment in Norway and summarizes research from 2006 to the present day. Rooted with a thorough discussion of risk metrics and risk analysis methodology,  subsequent chapters are devoted to analytical approaches to escalation, escape, evacuation and rescue analysis of safety and emergency systems.   Separate chapters analyze the main hazards of offshore structures: fire, explosion, collision, and falling objects as well as structural and marine hazards. Risk mitigation and control are discussed, as well as an illustrat...

  13. Assessing residential building values in Spain for risk analyses - application to the landslide hazard in the Autonomous Community of Valencia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cantarino, I.; Torrijo, F. J.; Palencia, S.; Gielen, E.

    2014-11-01

    This paper proposes a method of valuing the stock of residential buildings in Spain as the first step in assessing possible damage caused to them by natural hazards. For the purposes of the study we had access to the SIOSE (the Spanish Land Use and Cover Information System), a high-resolution land-use model, as well as to a report on the financial valuations of this type of building throughout Spain. Using dasymetric disaggregation processes and GIS techniques we developed a geolocalized method of obtaining this information, which was the exposure variable in the general risk assessment formula. Then, with the application over a hazard map, the risk value can be easily obtained. An example of its application is given in a case study that assesses the risk of a landslide in the entire 23 200 km2 of the Valencia Autonomous Community (NUT2), the results of which are analysed by municipal areas (LAU2) for the years 2005 and 2009.

  14. Applicability of PSA Issues for Risk Assessment during Optimisation of In-Service Inspection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kolykhanov, V.; Skalozubov, V.; Kovrigkin, Y.

    2006-01-01

    The current codes determining periodicity of in-service inspection of the NPP equipment have been formed using deterministic approaches and have an unnecessary degree of conservatism. A perspective direction of perfection of normative base is decision making on a basis of risk-informed methodologies. It allows to increase safety of NPP equipment's operation and to optimise programs on inspection of the equipment subject to limited resources by focusing efforts on the most safety significant elements of the equipment. It is internationally accepted that methodology of the probabilistic safety analysis (PSA) is the most universal and comprehensive tool focused on the general assessment of safety of NPP as a whole. By now, PSA Level 1 is fulfilled for all pilot units of the Ukrainian NPPs that is a valuable result, which should be taken into account at an assessment of reliability of the equipment. However, specificity of PSA methodology should be taken into account at the decision of the particular tasks aimed at optimisation of maintenance of the equipment within individual systems. The estimation of the contribution to core damage frequency (CDF) is a PSA issue usually used to assess the significance of consequences of failure of a system/equipment during risk-informed decision-making. This work shows that above factor is only a part of assessment of the significance of consequences as core damage can be expressed in different amount of the damaged fuel elements and, hence, severity of consequences. Besides CDF is directly affected only by active elements which failure can be an initiating event. PSA methodology uses averaged reliability factors of the equipment for all possible operating modes occurring at transitive accident process. Here, there are limited opportunities to account impact of periodicity of maintenance of the equipment on reliability and to predict impact of change of the inspection program. PSA methodology does not allow taking into account

  15. Application of GIS and modelling in health risk assessment for urban road mobility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vu, Van-Hieu; Le, Xuan-Quynh; Pham, Ngoc-Ho; Hens, Luc

    2013-08-01

    Transport is an essential sector in modern societies. It connects economic sectors and industries. Next to its contribution to economic development and social interconnection, it also causes adverse impacts on the environment and results in health hazards. Transport is a major source of ground air pollution, especially in urban areas, and therefore contributes to the health problems, such as cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, cancer and physical injuries. This paper presents the results of a health risk assessment that quantifies the mortality and the diseases associated with particulate matter pollution resulting from urban road transport in Haiphong City, Vietnam. The focus is on the integration of modelling and geographic information system approaches in the exposure analysis to increase the accuracy of the assessment and to produce timely and consistent assessment results. The modelling was done to estimate traffic conditions and concentrations of particulate matters based on geo-referenced data. The study shows that health burdens due to particulate matter in Haiphong include 1,200 extra deaths for the situation in 2007. This figure can double by 2020 as the result of the fast economic development the city pursues. In addition, 51,000 extra hospital admissions and more than 850,000 restricted activity days are expected by 2020.

  16. Risk assessment in maritime transportation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soares, C. Guedes; Teixeira, A.P.

    2001-01-01

    A review is presented of different approaches to quantify the risk in maritime transportation. The discussion of several accident statistics provides a global assessment of the risk levels and its differentiation in ship types and main types of ship losses. Early studies in the probability of ship loss by foundering and capsizing are reviewed. The approaches used to assess the risk of structural design are addressed. Finally a brief account is given of recent development of using formal safety assessments to support decision making on legislation applicable internationally to maritime transportation

  17. Nanocomposites in food packaging applications and their risk assessment for health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Honarvar, Zohreh; Hadian, Zahra; Mashayekh, Morteza

    2016-01-01

    Nanotechnology has shown many advantages in different fields. As the uses of nanotechnology have progressed, it has been found to be a promising technology for the food packaging industry in the global market. It has proven capabilities that are valuable in packaging foods, including improved barriers; mechanical, thermal, and biodegradable properties; and applications in active and intelligent food packaging. Examples of the latter are anti-microbial agents and nanosensors, respectively. However, the use of nanocomposites in food packaging might be challenging due to the reduced particle size of nanomaterials and the fact that the chemical and physical characteristics of such tiny materials may be quite different from those of their macro-scale counterparts. In order to discuss the potential risks of nanoparticles for consumers, in addition to the quantification of data, a thorough investigation of their characteristics is required. Migration studies must be conducted to determine the amounts of nanomaterials released into the food matrices. In this article, different applications of nanocomposites in food packaging, migration issues, analyzing techniques, and the main concerns about their usage are discussed briefly. PMID:27504168

  18. Key issues for the development and application of the species sensitivity distribution (SSD) model for ecological risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Xu, Fu-Liu; Li, Yi-Long; Wang, Yin

    2015-01-01

    The species sensitivity distribution (SSD) model is one of the most commonly used methods for ecological risk assessment based on the potentially affected fraction (PAF) of and the combined PAF (msPAF) as quantitative indicators. There are usually four steps for the development of SSD models...... and their applications: (1) obtain the toxicity data of the pollutants; (2) fit the SSD curves; (3) calculate the potentially affected fractions (PAFs) of the individual pollutants for the ecological risk assessment of an individual pollutant; and (4) calculate the accumulated multi-substance potentially affected...... collected from the ecotoxicity database, (3) how to transform the acute toxicity data into chronic data, (4) how to best fit the toxicity data, (5) how to calculate the msPAF of multiple pollutants, and (6) how to determine the uncertainty of the SSD model”. In response to these questions, several...

  19. Flood risk assessment and robust management under deep uncertainty: Application to Dhaka City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mojtahed, Vahid; Gain, Animesh Kumar; Giupponi, Carlo

    2014-05-01

    The socio-economic changes as well as climatic changes have been the main drivers of uncertainty in environmental risk assessment and in particular flood. The level of future uncertainty that researchers face when dealing with problems in a future perspective with focus on climate change is known as Deep Uncertainty (also known as Knightian uncertainty), since nobody has already experienced and undergone those changes before and our knowledge is limited to the extent that we have no notion of probabilities, and therefore consolidated risk management approaches have limited potential.. Deep uncertainty is referred to circumstances that analysts and experts do not know or parties to decision making cannot agree on: i) the appropriate models describing the interaction among system variables, ii) probability distributions to represent uncertainty about key parameters in the model 3) how to value the desirability of alternative outcomes. The need thus emerges to assist policy-makers by providing them with not a single and optimal solution to the problem at hand, such as crisp estimates for the costs of damages of natural hazards considered, but instead ranges of possible future costs, based on the outcomes of ensembles of assessment models and sets of plausible scenarios. Accordingly, we need to substitute optimality as a decision criterion with robustness. Under conditions of deep uncertainty, the decision-makers do not have statistical and mathematical bases to identify optimal solutions, while instead they should prefer to implement "robust" decisions that perform relatively well over all conceivable outcomes out of all future unknown scenarios. Under deep uncertainty, analysts cannot employ probability theory or other statistics that usually can be derived from observed historical data and therefore, we turn to non-statistical measures such as scenario analysis. We construct several plausible scenarios with each scenario being a full description of what may happen

  20. Assessing uncertainty in extreme events: Applications to risk-based decision making in interdependent infrastructure sectors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barker, Kash; Haimes, Yacov Y.

    2009-01-01

    Risk-based decision making often relies upon expert probability assessments, particularly in the consequences of disruptive events and when such events are extreme or catastrophic in nature. Naturally, such expert-elicited probability distributions can be fraught with errors, as they describe events which occur very infrequently and for which only sparse data exist. This paper presents a quantitative framework, the extreme event uncertainty sensitivity impact method (EE-USIM), for measuring the sensitivity of extreme event consequences to uncertainties in the parameters of the underlying probability distribution. The EE-USIM is demonstrated with the Inoperability input-output model (IIM), a model with which to evaluate the propagation of inoperability throughout an interdependent set of economic and infrastructure sectors. The EE-USIM also makes use of a two-sided power distribution function generated by expert elicitation of extreme event consequences

  1. Transport accident frequency data, their sources and their application in risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Appleton, P.R.

    1988-08-01

    Base transport accident frequency data and sources of these data are presented. Both generic information and rates specific to particular routes or packages are included. Strong packages, such as those containing significant quantities of radioactive materials, will survive most of the accidents represented by these base frequencies without a containment breach. The association of severity probability distributions with a base frequency, and package and contents response, leading to the quantification of release frequency and magnitude, are often more important in risk assessment than the base frequency itself. This paper therefore also includes brief comments on techniques adopted to utilize the base frequencies. This paper reports an accident frequency data survey undertaken at the end of 1986. It has not been updated to take account of work published between January 1987 and the Report publication date. (author)

  2. Operational risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKim, Vicky L

    2017-06-01

    In the world of risk management, which encompasses the business continuity disciplines, many types of risk require evaluation. Financial risk is most often the primary focus, followed by product and market risks. Another critical area, which typically lacks a thorough review or may be overlooked, is operational risk. This category encompasses many risk exposure types including those around building structures and systems, environmental issues, nature, neighbours, clients, regulatory compliance, network, data security and so on. At times, insurance carriers will assess internal hazards, but seldom do these assessments include more than a cursory look at other types of operational risk. In heavily regulated environments, risk assessments are required but may not always include thorough assessments of operational exposures. Vulnerabilities may linger or go unnoticed, only to become the catalyst for a business disruption at a later time, some of which are so severe that business recovery becomes nearly impossible. Businesses may suffer loss of clients as the result of a prolonged disruption of services. Comprehensive operational risk assessments can assist in identifying such vulnerabilities, exposures and threats so that the risk can be minimised or removed. This paper lays out how an assessment of this type can be successfully conducted.

  3. Application of probability distributions for quantifying uncertainty in radionuclide source terms for Seabrook risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walker, D.H.; Savin, N.L.

    1985-01-01

    The calculational models developed for the Reactor Safety Study (RSS) have traditionally been used to generate 'point estimate values' for radionuclide release to the environment for nuclear power plant risk assessments. The point estimate values so calculated are acknowledged by most knowledgeable individuals to be conservatively high. Further, recent evaluations of the overall uncertainties in the various components that make up risk estimates for nuclear electric generating stations show that one of the large uncertainties is associated with the magnitude of the radionuclide release to the environment. In the approach developed for the RSS, values for fission product release from the fuel are derived from data obtained from small experiments. A reappraisal of the RSS release fractions was published in 1981 in NUREG-0772. Estimates of fractional releases from fuel are similar to those of the RSS. In the RSS approach, depletion during transport from the core (where the fission products are released) to the containment is assumed to be zero for calculation purposes. In the containment, the CORRAL code is applied to calculate radioactivity depletion by containment processes and to calculate the quantity and timing of release to the environment

  4. Risk assessment [Chapter 9

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dennis S. Ojima; Louis R. Iverson; Brent L. Sohngen; James M. Vose; Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke; David L. Peterson; Jeremy S. Littell; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Gary W. Yohe; Megan M. Friggens

    2014-01-01

    What is "risk" in the context of climate change? How can a "risk-based framework" help assess the effects of climate change and develop adaptation priorities? Risk can be described by the likelihood of an impact occurring and the magnitude of the consequences of the impact (Yohe 2010) (Fig. 9.1). High-magnitude impacts are always...

  5. Chemical Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    This course is aimed at providing an overview of the fundamental guiding principles and general methods used in chemical risk assessment. Chemical risk assessment is a complex and ever-evolving process. These principles and methods have been organized by the National Research Cou...

  6. Prioritising chemicals used in personal care products in China for environmental risk assessment: Application of the RAIDAR model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gouin, Todd; Egmond, Roger van; Price, Oliver R.; Hodges, Juliet E.N.

    2012-01-01

    China represents a significant market for the sale of personal care products (PCPs). Given the continuous emission of hundreds of chemicals used in PCPs to waste water and the aquatic environment after regular use, methods for prioritising the environmental risk assessment for China are needed. In an effort to assess the prioritisation of chemicals used in PCPs in China, we have identified the chemical ingredients used in 2500 PCPs released to the Chinese market in 2009, and estimated the annual emission of these chemicals. The physical-chemical property data for these substances have been estimated and used as model inputs in the RAIDAR model. In general, the RAIDAR model provides an overall assessment of the multimedia fate of chemicals, and provides a holistic approach for prioritising chemical ingredients. The prioritisation exercise conducted in this study is shown to be strongly influenced by loss processes, such as the removal efficiencies of WWT plants and biotransformation. - Highlights: ► Chemicals used in PCPs in China are prioritised using the RAIDAR model. ► Chemicals used in PCPs are estimated to have Risk assessment factors <<1. ► Loss processes strongly influence how chemicals are prioritised. - The application of the Risk IDentification And Ranking (RAIDAR) model is shown to be a potentially effective tool for prioritising chemicals used in personal care products in China.

  7. Overview of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rimington, J.D.

    1992-01-01

    The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits

  8. Overview of risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rimington, J D [Health and Safety Executive (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits.

  9. A pilot application of regional scale risk assessment to the forestry management of the upper Grand Ronde watershed, Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suzanne M. Anderson; Wayne G. Landis

    2012-01-01

    An issue in forestry management has been the integration of a variety of different information into a threat analysis or risk assessment. In this instance, regional scale risk assessment was applied to the Upper Grande Ronde watershed in eastern Oregon to examine the potential of risk assessment for use in the management of broad landscapes. The site was a focus of...

  10. An application of the ESD framework to the probabilistic risk assessment of dynamic systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Swaminathan, S.; Smidts, Carol

    2000-01-01

    Dynamic reliability is the probabilistic study of man-machine-software systems affected by an underlying physical process. The theory of probabilistic dynamics established that dynamic reliability methodologies are essentially semi-Markovian frameworks and can be expressed by an extension of the Chapman-Kolmogorov equation. The mathematical complexity associated with the assessment of dynamic systems' behaviour can be rather overwhelming for real life size systems. This is due to the fact that dynamic methodologies emphasize a component based representation rather than the sequence based representation used in the traditional Event Tree/Fault Tree framework or in the original Event Sequence Diagram (ESD) Framework. An extension of the ESD framework was proposed that facilitates capture of dynamic situations. The modeling framework is composed of events, gates, conditions, competitions and constraints which express many of the dynamic situations encountered in the evolution of accidents. The following paper illustrates an application of this extended ESD framework on a complex dynamic application. The problem at hand is an extension of a problem extensively studied in the validation of dynamic reliability algorithms, a simplified model of the fast reactor Europa. A discussion on how ESDs can help in guiding dynamic reliability simulations as well as aggregating and binning the numerous scenarios generated by dynamic reliability algorithms is provided.(author)

  11. Application of the Integrated Safety Assessment methodology to safety margins. Dynamic Event Trees, Damage Domains and Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ibánez, L.; Hortal, J.; Queral, C.; Gómez-Magán, J.; Sánchez-Perea, M.; Fernández, I.; Meléndez, E.; Expósito, A.; Izquierdo, J.M.; Gil, J.; Marrao, H.; Villalba-Jabonero, E.

    2016-01-01

    The Integrated Safety Assessment (ISA) methodology, developed by the Consejo de Seguridad Nuclear, has been applied to an analysis of Zion NPP for sequences with Loss of the Component Cooling Water System (CCWS). The ISA methodology proposal starts from the unfolding of the Dynamic Event Tree (DET). Results from this first step allow assessing the sequence delineation of standard Probabilistic Safety Analysis results. For some sequences of interest of the outlined DET, ISA then identifies the Damage Domain (DD). This is the region of uncertain times and/or parameters where a safety limit is exceeded, which indicates the occurrence of certain damage situation. This paper illustrates application of this concept obtained simulating sequences with MAAP and with TRACE. From information of simulation results of sequence transients belonging to the DD and the time-density probability distributions of the manual actions and of occurrence of stochastic phenomena, ISA integrates the dynamic reliability equations proposed to obtain the sequence contribution to the global Damage Exceedance Frequency (DEF). Reported results show a slight increase in the DEF for sequences investigated following a power uprate from 100% to 110%. This demonstrates the potential use of the method to help in the assessment of design modifications. - Highlights: • This paper illustrates an application of the ISA methodology to safety margins. • Dynamic Event Trees are useful tool for verifying the standard PSA Event Trees. • The ISA methodology takes into account the uncertainties in human action times. • The ISA methodology shows the Damage Exceedance Frequency increase in power uprates.

  12. Preliminary Safety and Risk HSE Assessment. Application to the Potential Locations of a CO2 Geological Storage Pilot

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Recreo, F.; Eguilior, S.; Ruiz, C.; Lomba, L.; Hurtado, A.

    2015-01-01

    The location of a site safe and able to sequester CO2 for long periods of time is essential to gain public acceptance. This requires a long-term safety assessment developed in a robust and reliable framework. Site selection is the first step and requires specific research. This paper describes the application of the Selection and Classification Method of Geological Formations (SCF) developed to assess the potential of geological formations to CO2 storage. This assessment is based in the analysis of risks to Health, Safety and Environment (HSE) derived from potential CO2 leakage. Comparisons of the results obtained from a number of potential sites can help to select the best candidate for CO2 injection. The potential impact will be related to three key potential features of CO2 geological storage: the potential of the target geological formation for long term CO2 containment; the potential for secondary containment on containment failure of the target formation; and the site's potential to mitigate and/or disperse CO2 leakage if the primary and secondary containments fail. The methodology assesses each of these three characteristics through an analysis and assessment of properties of certain attributes of them. Uncertainty will remain as an input and output value of the methodology due to the usual lack of data in most site selection processes. The global uncertainty reports on the trust on the knowledge of the site characteristics. Therefore, the methodology enables comparing sites taking into account both the HSE risk expectation and the estimation of the quality of knowledge concerning such risk. The objective is to contribute to the selection of potential sites for a CO2 injection pilot plant in the Iberian Peninsula from the perspective of Safety and Risk Analysis.

  13. Databases applicable to quantitative hazard/risk assessment-Towards a predictive systems toxicology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waters, Michael; Jackson, Marcus

    2008-01-01

    The Workshop on The Power of Aggregated Toxicity Data addressed the requirement for distributed databases to support quantitative hazard and risk assessment. The authors have conceived and constructed with federal support several databases that have been used in hazard identification and risk assessment. The first of these databases, the EPA Gene-Tox Database was developed for the EPA Office of Toxic Substances by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and is currently hosted by the National Library of Medicine. This public resource is based on the collaborative evaluation, by government, academia, and industry, of short-term tests for the detection of mutagens and presumptive carcinogens. The two-phased evaluation process resulted in more than 50 peer-reviewed publications on test system performance and a qualitative database on thousands of chemicals. Subsequently, the graphic and quantitative EPA/IARC Genetic Activity Profile (GAP) Database was developed in collaboration with the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC). A chemical database driven by consideration of the lowest effective dose, GAP has served IARC for many years in support of hazard classification of potential human carcinogens. The Toxicological Activity Profile (TAP) prototype database was patterned after GAP and utilized acute, subchronic, and chronic data from the Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards. TAP demonstrated the flexibility of the GAP format for air toxics, water pollutants and other environmental agents. The GAP format was also applied to developmental toxicants and was modified to represent quantitative results from the rodent carcinogen bioassay. More recently, the authors have constructed: 1) the NIEHS Genetic Alterations in Cancer (GAC) Database which quantifies specific mutations found in cancers induced by environmental agents, and 2) the NIEHS Chemical Effects in Biological Systems (CEBS) Knowledgebase that integrates genomic and other biological data including

  14. Patient caries risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, Svante; Fontana, Margherita

    2009-01-01

    Risk assessment is an essential component in the decision-making process for the correct prevention and management of dental caries. Multiple risk factors and indicators have been proposed as targets in the assessment of risk of future disease, varying sometimes based on the age group at which...... they are targeted. Multiple reviews and systematic reviews are available in the literature on this topic. This chapter focusses primarily on results of reviews based on longitudinal studies required to establish the accuracy of caries risk assessment. These findings demonstrate that there is a strong body...... of evidence to support that caries experience is still, unfortunately, the single best predictor for future caries development. In young children, prediction models which include a variety of risk factors seem to increase the accuracy of the prediction, while the usefulness of additional risk factors...

  15. Development and application of a catchment scale pesticide fate and transport model for use in drinking water risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pullan, S P; Whelan, M J; Rettino, J; Filby, K; Eyre, S; Holman, I P

    2016-09-01

    This paper describes the development and application of IMPT (Integrated Model for Pesticide Transport), a parameter-efficient tool for predicting diffuse-source pesticide concentrations in surface waters used for drinking water supply. The model was applied to a small UK headwater catchment with high frequency (8h) pesticide monitoring data and to five larger catchments (479-1653km(2)) with sampling approximately every 14days. Model performance was good for predictions of both flow (Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency generally >0.59 and PBIAS water resources to support operational and strategic risk assessments. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Environmental Risk Communication through Qualitative Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabre J. Coleman

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Environmental analysts are often hampered in communicating the risks of environmental contaminants due to the myriad of regulatory requirements that are applicable. The use of a qualitative, risk-based control banding strategy for assessment and control of potential environmental contaminants provides a standardized approach to improve risk communication. Presented is a model that provides an effective means for determining standardized responses and controls for common environmental issues based on the level of risk. The model is designed for integration within an occupational health and safety management system to provide a multidisciplinary environmental and occupational risk management approach. This environmental model, which utilizes multidisciplinary control banding strategies for delineating risk, complements the existing Risk Level Based Management System, a proven method in a highly regulated facility for occupational health and safety. A simplified environmental risk matrix is presented that is stratified over four risk levels. Examples of qualitative environmental control banding strategies are presented as they apply to United States regulations for construction, research activities, facility maintenance, and spill remediation that affect air, water, soil, and waste disposal. This approach offers a standardized risk communication language for multidisciplinary issues that will improve communications within and between environmental health and safety professionals, workers, and management.

  17. Development and application of the SSD approach in scientific case studies for ecological risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Del Signore, Anastasia; Hendriks, A Jan; Lenders, H J Rob; Leuven, Rob S E W; Breure, A M

    2016-09-01

    Species sensitivity distributions (SSDs) are used in ecological risk assessment for extrapolation of the results of toxicity tests with single species to a toxicity threshold considered protective of ecosystem structure and functioning. The attention to and importance of the SSD approach has increased in scientific and regulatory communities since the 1990s. Discussion and criticism have been triggered on the concept of the approach as well as its technical aspects (e.g., distribution type, number of toxicity endpoints). Various questions remain unanswered, especially with regard to different endpoints, statistical methods, and protectiveness of threshold levels, for example. In the present literature review (covering the period 2002-2013), case studies are explored in which the SSD approach was applied, as well as how endpoint types, species choice, and data availability affect SSDs. How statistical methods may be used to construct reliable SSDs and whether the lower 5th percentile hazard concentrations (HC5s) from a generic SSD can be protective for a specific local community are also investigated. It is shown that estimated protective concentrations were determined by taxonomic groups rather than the statistical method used to construct the distribution. Based on comparisons between semifield and laboratory-based SSDs, the output from a laboratory SSD was protective of semifield communities in the majority of studies. Environ Toxicol Chem 2016;35:2149-2161. © 2016 SETAC. © 2016 SETAC.

  18. An application of failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA to assess risks in petrochemical industry in Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehdi Kangavari

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Petrochemical industries have a high rate of accidents. Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA is a systematic method and thus is capable of analyzing the risks of systems from concept phase to system disposal, detecting the failures in design stage, and determining the control measures and corrective actions for failures to reduce their impacts. The objectives of this research were to perform FMEA to identify risks in an Iranian petrochemical industry and determine the decrease of the risk priority number (RPN after implementation of intervention programs. This interventional study was performed at one petrochemical plant in Tehran, Iran in 2014. Relevant information about job categories and plant process was gathered using brainstorming techniques, fishbone diagram, and group decision making. The data were collected through interviews, observation, and documents investigations and was recorded in FMEA worksheets. The necessary corrective measures were performed on the basis of the results of initial FMEA. Forty eight failures were identified in welding unit by application of FMEA to assess risks. Welding processes especially working at height got the highest RPN. Obtained RPN for working at height before performing the corrective actions was 120 and the score was reduced to 96 after performing corrective measures. Calculated RPN for all processes was significantly reduced (p≤0.001 by implementing the corrective actions. Scores of RPN in all studied processes effectively decreased after performing corrective actions in a petrochemical industry. FMEA method is a useful tool for identifying risk intervention priorities and effectiveness in a studied petrochemical industry.

  19. Application of crowdsourced hail data and damage information for hail risk assessment in the province of Styria, Austria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tani, Satyanarayana; Rechberger, Andreas; Süsser Rechberger, Barbara; Teschl, Reinhard; Paulitsch, Helmut

    2017-04-01

    Hail storm damage is a major concern to the farmers in the province of Styria, Austria. Each year severe hail storms are causing damages to crops, resulting in losses of millions of euros. High spatial and timely ground truth information of the hail event and crop damage measurements are essential for better hail risk assessment. Usually, hail pad networks and visual damage surveys are used to collect the hail data and corresponding damage information. However, these hail pad networks are expensive and need laborious maintenance. The traditional crop damage assessment approaches are very labour-intensive and time-consuming. The advancements in information and communication technology (ICT) and the power of citizen based crowdsourcing data, will help to overcome these problems and ultimately provide a platform for data collection. A user-friendly and bilingual web interface was developed to collect hail data and crop damage information in the province of Styria, Austria. The dynamic web interface was developed using HTML5, JavaScript, and PHP7 combined with a MySQL database back-end. OpenStreetMap was integrated into the web interface and tile server optimised for an easy identification of geolocation information. The user needs an internet connection to transfer the data through smartphone or computer. Crowdsourced data will be quality tested and evaluated with 3D single polarisation C-band weather radar data to remove potential false reports. Further, the relationship between the reported hail events and radar-based hail detection algorithms (Waldvogel and Auer) and derived hail signature information intended for crop hail risk assessment will be investigated. The details about the web interface tool, application and verification methods to collect, analyse, and integrate different data sets are given. Further, the high spatial risk assessment information is communicated to support risk management policy.

  20. Continuous rainfall simulation for regional flood risk assessment - application in the Austrian Alps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salinas, Jose Luis; Nester, Thomas; Komma, Jürgen; Blöschl, Günter

    2017-04-01

    Generation of realistic synthetic spatial rainfall is of pivotal importance for assessing regional hydroclimatic hazard as the input for long term rainfall-runoff simulations. The correct reproduction of the observed rainfall characteristics, such as regional intensity-duration-frequency curves, is necessary to adequately model the magnitude and frequency of the flood peaks. Furthermore, the replication of the observed rainfall spatial and temporal correlations allows to model important other hydrological features like antecedent soil moisture conditions before extreme rainfall events. In this work, we present an application in the Tirol region (Austrian alps) of a modification of the model presented by Bardossy and Platte (1992), where precipitation is modeled on a station basis as a mutivariate autoregressive model (mAr) in a Normal space, and then transformed to a Gamma-distributed space. For the sake of simplicity, the parameters of the Gamma distributions are assumed to vary monthly according to a sinusoidal function, and are calibrated trying to simultaneously reproduce i) mean annual rainfall, ii) mean daily rainfall amounts, iii) standard deviations of daily rainfall amounts, and iv) 24-hours intensity duration frequency curve. The calibration of the spatial and temporal correlation parameters is performed in a way that the intensity-duration-frequency curves aggregated at different spatial and temporal scales reproduce the measured ones. Bardossy, A., and E. J. Plate (1992), Space-time model for daily rainfall using atmospheric circulation patterns, Water Resour. Res., 28(5), 1247-1259, doi:10.1029/91WR02589.

  1. GAR Global Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar

    2015-04-01

    Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.

  2. Quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinstock, Robert M (Inventor); Smidts, Carol S (Inventor); Mosleh, Ali (Inventor); Chang, Yung-Hsien (Inventor); Swaminathan, Sankaran (Inventor); Groen, Francisco J (Inventor); Tan, Zhibin (Inventor)

    2001-01-01

    A quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS) builds a risk model of a system for which risk of failure is being assessed, then analyzes the risk of the system corresponding to the risk model. The QRAS performs sensitivity analysis of the risk model by altering fundamental components and quantifications built into the risk model, then re-analyzes the risk of the system using the modifications. More particularly, the risk model is built by building a hierarchy, creating a mission timeline, quantifying failure modes, and building/editing event sequence diagrams. Multiplicities, dependencies, and redundancies of the system are included in the risk model. For analysis runs, a fixed baseline is first constructed and stored. This baseline contains the lowest level scenarios, preserved in event tree structure. The analysis runs, at any level of the hierarchy and below, access this baseline for risk quantitative computation as well as ranking of particular risks. A standalone Tool Box capability exists, allowing the user to store application programs within QRAS.

  3. Risk assessment in international operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stricklin, Daniela L.

    2008-01-01

    During international peace-keeping missions, a diverse number of non-battle hazards may be encountered, which range from heavily polluted areas, endemic disease, toxic industrial materials, local violence, traffic, and even psychological factors. Hence, elevated risk levels from a variety of sources are encountered during deployments. With the emphasis within the Swedish military moving from national defense towards prioritization of international missions in atypical environments, the risk of health consequences, including long term health effects, has received greater consideration. The Swedish military is interested in designing an optimal approach for assessment of health threats during deployments. The Medical Intelligence group at FOI CBRN Security and Defence in Umea has, on request from and in collaboration with the Swedish Armed Forces, reviewed a variety of international health threat and risk assessment models for military operations. Application of risk assessment methods used in different phases of military operations will be reviewed. An overview of different international approaches used in operational risk management (ORM) will be presented as well as a discussion of the specific needs and constraints for health risk assessment in military operations. This work highlights the specific challenges of risk assessment that are unique to the deployment setting such as the assessment of exposures to a variety of diverse hazards concurrently

  4. Sovereign default risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rijken, H.A.; Altman, E.I.

    2013-01-01

    We propose a new approach toward assessing sovereign risk by examining rigorously the health and aggregate default risk of a nation's private corporate sector. Models can be utilised to measure the probability of default of the non-financial sector cumulatively for five years, both as an absolute

  5. Application of non-dose/risk indicators for confidence-building in the H12 safety assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miyahara, K.; Makino, H.; Takasu, A.; Naito, M.; Umeke, H.; Wakasugi, K.; Ishiguro, K.

    2002-01-01

    In the H12 study, non-dose/risk safety indicators have also been considered with a view to increasing confidence in the safety assessment. The H12 safety assessment considers system evolution for a range of scenarios; not only normal groundwater scenarios but also isolation failure scenarios due to unlikely natural disruptive events. The calculated nuclide concentrations and fluxes in the surface environment for the reference groundwater scenario were compared with measurements of naturally occurring nuclides. This comparison indicated that the concentration and fluxes of radionuclides released from the repository would be several orders of magnitude lower than those of natural radionuclides. There may exist cases, such as some natural disruptive events, where the likelihood of occurrence is extremely low and the 'Reference Biosphere' approach is difficult to be applied for biosphere modelling. The use of qualitative assessment to allow comparison with naturally occurring nuclides based on observations of natural systems may play a role in supporting the robustness of the system concept. These examples suggest that relevant application of these non-dose/risk indicators supports a more robust case. An advantage to applying such indicators is that both technical and non-technical audiences can judge the relative, long-term impact of a deep geological repository. (author)

  6. Development and application of the dynamic system doctor to nuclear reactor probabilistic risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kunsman, David Marvin; Aldemir, Tunc; Rutt, Benjamin; Metzroth, Kyle; Catalyurek, Umit; Denning, Richard; Hakobyan, Aram; Dunagan, Sean C.

    2008-01-01

    This LDRD project has produced a tool that makes probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) of nuclear reactors - analyses which are very resource intensive - more efficient. PRAs of nuclear reactors are being increasingly relied on by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (U.S.N.R.C.) for licensing decisions for current and advanced reactors. Yet, PRAs are produced much as they were 20 years ago. The work here applied a modern systems analysis technique to the accident progression analysis portion of the PRA; the technique was a system-independent multi-task computer driver routine. Initially, the objective of the work was to fuse the accident progression event tree (APET) portion of a PRA to the dynamic system doctor (DSD) created by Ohio State University. Instead, during the initial efforts, it was found that the DSD could be linked directly to a detailed accident progression phenomenological simulation code - the type on which APET construction and analysis relies, albeit indirectly - and thereby directly create and analyze the APET. The expanded DSD computational architecture and infrastructure that was created during this effort is called ADAPT (Analysis of Dynamic Accident Progression Trees). ADAPT is a system software infrastructure that supports execution and analysis of multiple dynamic event-tree simulations on distributed environments. A simulator abstraction layer was developed, and a generic driver was implemented for executing simulators on a distributed environment. As a demonstration of the use of the methodological tool, ADAPT was applied to quantify the likelihood of competing accident progression pathways occurring for a particular accident scenario in a particular reactor type using MELCOR, an integrated severe accident analysis code developed at Sandia. (ADAPT was intentionally created with flexibility, however, and is not limited to interacting with only one code. With minor coding changes to input files, ADAPT can be linked to other

  7. Anthropic Risk Assessment on Biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piragnolo, M.; Pirotti, F.; Vettore, A.; Salogni, G.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology for risk assessment of anthropic activities on habitats and species. The method has been developed for Veneto Region, in order to simplify and improve the quality of EIA procedure (VINCA). Habitats and species, animals and plants, are protected by European Directive 92/43/EEC and 2009/147/EC but they are subject at hazard due to pollution produced by human activities. Biodiversity risks may conduct to deterioration and disturbance in ecological niches, with consequence of loss of biodiversity. Ecological risk assessment applied on Natura 2000 network, is needed to best practice of management and monitoring of environment and natural resources. Threats, pressure and activities, stress and indicators may be managed by geodatabase and analysed using GIS technology. The method used is the classic risk assessment in ecological context, and it defines the natural hazard as influence, element of risk as interference and vulnerability. Also it defines a new parameter called pressure. It uses risk matrix for the risk analysis on spatial and temporal scale. The methodology is qualitative and applies the precautionary principle in environmental assessment. The final product is a matrix which excludes the risk and could find application in the development of a territorial information system.

  8. Risk assessment research and technology assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Albach, H.; Schade, D.; Sinn, H.

    1991-01-01

    The concepts and approaches for technology assessment, the targets and scientific principles, as well as recognizable deficits and recommendations concerning purposeful strategies for the promotion of this research field require a dialog between those concerned. Conception, deficits, and the necessary measures for risk assessment research and technology assessment were discussed as well as ethical aspects. The problematic nature of using organisms altered through genetic engineering in the open land, traffic and transport, site restoration, nuclear energy, and isotope applications were subjects particularly dealt with. (DG) [de

  9. Application of modeling tools for risk assessment of engineered nanomaterials in aquatic systems

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Ondiaka, M

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Globally, engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) are increasingly being used in nanoproducts to improve their performance. The multi-stage lifecycle of ENMs increases their potential risk profiles to different environmental systems, for example, due...

  10. Environmental Risk Assessment of dredging processes – application to Marin harbour (NW Spain)

    OpenAIRE

    A. G. Gómez; J. García Alba; A. Puente; J. A. Juanes

    2014-01-01

    ABSTRACT. A methodological procedure to estimate the environmental risk of dredging operations in aquatic systems has been developed. Environmental risk estimations are based on numerical models results, which provide an appropriated spatio-temporal framework analysis to guarantee an effective decision-making process. The methodological procedure has been applied on a real dredging operation in the port of Marin (NW Spain). Results from Marin harbour confirmed the suitabi...

  11. Environmental Risk Assessment of dredging processes - application to Marin harbour (NW Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gómez, A. G.; García Alba, J.; Puente, A.; Juanes, J. A.

    2014-04-01

    A methodological procedure to estimate the environmental risk of dredging operations in aquatic systems has been developed. Environmental risk estimations are based on numerical models results, which provide an appropriated spatio-temporal framework analysis to guarantee an effective decision-making process. The methodological procedure has been applied on a real dredging operation in the port of Marin (NW Spain). Results from Marin harbour confirmed the suitability of the developed methodology and the conceptual approaches as a comprehensive and practical management tool.

  12. Probabilistic modelling of prospective environmental concentrations of gold nanoparticles from medical applications as a basis for risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahapatra, Indrani; Sun, Tian Yin; Clark, Julian R A; Dobson, Peter J; Hungerbuehler, Konrad; Owen, Richard; Nowack, Bernd; Lead, Jamie

    2015-12-22

    The use of gold nanoparticles (Au-NP) based medical applications is rising due to their unique physical and chemical properties. Diagnostic devices based on Au-NP are already available in the market or are in clinical trials and Au-NP based therapeutics and theranostics (combined diagnostic and treatment modality) are in the research and development phase. Currently, no information on Au-NP consumption, material flows to and concentrations in the environment are available. Therefore, we estimated prospective maximal consumption of Au-NP from medical applications in the UK and US. We then modelled the Au-NP flows post-use and predicted their environmental concentrations. Furthermore, we assessed the environment risks of Au-NP by comparing the predicted environmental concentrations (PECs) with ecological threshold (PNEC) values. The mean annual estimated consumption of Au-NP from medical applications is 540 kg for the UK and 2700 kg for the US. Among the modelled concentrations of Au-NP in environmental compartments, the mean annual PEC of Au-NP in sludge for both the UK and US was estimated at 124 and 145 μg kg(-1), respectively. The mean PEC in surface water was estimated at 468 and 4.7 pg L(-1), respectively for the UK and US. The NOEC value for the water compartment ranged from 0.12 up to 26,800 μg L(-1), with most values in the range of 1000 μg L(-1). The results using the current set of data indicate that the environmental risk from Au-NP used in nanomedicine in surface waters and from agricultural use of biosolids is minimal in the near future, especially because we have used a worst-case use assessment. More Au-NP toxicity studies are needed for the soil compartment.

  13. Deterministic quantitative risk assessment development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dawson, Jane; Colquhoun, Iain [PII Pipeline Solutions Business of GE Oil and Gas, Cramlington Northumberland (United Kingdom)

    2009-07-01

    Current risk assessment practice in pipeline integrity management is to use a semi-quantitative index-based or model based methodology. This approach has been found to be very flexible and provide useful results for identifying high risk areas and for prioritizing physical integrity assessments. However, as pipeline operators progressively adopt an operating strategy of continual risk reduction with a view to minimizing total expenditures within safety, environmental, and reliability constraints, the need for quantitative assessments of risk levels is becoming evident. Whereas reliability based quantitative risk assessments can be and are routinely carried out on a site-specific basis, they require significant amounts of quantitative data for the results to be meaningful. This need for detailed and reliable data tends to make these methods unwieldy for system-wide risk k assessment applications. This paper describes methods for estimating risk quantitatively through the calibration of semi-quantitative estimates to failure rates for peer pipeline systems. The methods involve the analysis of the failure rate distribution, and techniques for mapping the rate to the distribution of likelihoods available from currently available semi-quantitative programs. By applying point value probabilities to the failure rates, deterministic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) provides greater rigor and objectivity than can usually be achieved through the implementation of semi-quantitative risk assessment results. The method permits a fully quantitative approach or a mixture of QRA and semi-QRA to suit the operator's data availability and quality, and analysis needs. For example, consequence analysis can be quantitative or can address qualitative ranges for consequence categories. Likewise, failure likelihoods can be output as classical probabilities or as expected failure frequencies as required. (author)

  14. Chlorine transportation risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lautkaski, Risto; Mankamo, Tuomas.

    1977-02-01

    An assessment has been made on the toxication risk of the population due to the bulk rail transportation of liquid chlorine in Finland. Fourteen typical rail accidents were selected and their probability was estimated using the accident file of the Finnish State Railways. The probability of a chlorine leak was assessed for each type of accident separately using four leak size categories. The assessed leakage probability was dominated by station accidents, especially by collisions of a chlorine tanker and a locomotive. Toxication hazard areas were estimated for the leak categories. A simple model was constructed to describe the centring of the densely populated areas along the railway line. A comparison was made between the obtained risk and some other risks including those due to nuclear reactor accidents. (author)

  15. Assessment of fracture risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanis, John A.; Johansson, Helena; Oden, Anders; McCloskey, Eugene V.

    2009-01-01

    Fractures are a common complication of osteoporosis. Although osteoporosis is defined by bone mineral density at the femoral neck, other sites and validated techniques can be used for fracture prediction. Several clinical risk factors contribute to fracture risk independently of BMD. These include age, prior fragility fracture, smoking, excess alcohol, family history of hip fracture, rheumatoid arthritis and the use of oral glucocorticoids. These risk factors in conjunction with BMD can be integrated to provide estimates of fracture probability using the FRAX tool. Fracture probability rather than BMD alone can be used to fashion strategies for the assessment and treatment of osteoporosis.

  16. Probabilistic risk assessment course documentation. Volume 2. Probability and statistics for PRA applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iman, R.L.; Prairie, R.R.; Cramond, W.R.

    1985-08-01

    This course is intended to provide the necessary probabilistic and statistical skills to perform a PRA. Fundamental background information is reviewed, but the principal purpose is to address specific techniques used in PRAs and to illustrate them with applications. Specific examples and problems are presented for most of the topics

  17. RECYCLING OF WATER TREATMENT PLANT SLUDGE VIA LAND APPLICATION: ASSESSMENT OF RISK

    Science.gov (United States)

    Water treatment sludges (WTS) offer potential benefits when applied to soil and recycling of the waste stream via land application has been proposed as a management option. Recycling of WTS to the land helps conserve landfill disposal capacity and natural resources, but potential...

  18. Magnitude of cyantraniliprole residues in tomato following open field application: pre-harvest interval determination and risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malhat, Farag; Kasiotis, Konstantinos M; Shalaby, Shehata

    2018-02-05

    Cyantraniliprole is an anthranilic diamide insecticide, belonging to the ryanoid class, with a broad range of applications against several pests. In the presented work, a reliable analytical technique employing high-performance liquid chromatography coupled with photodiode array detector (HPLC-DAD) for analyzing cyantraniliprole residues in tomato was developed. The method was then applied to field-incurred tomato samples collected after applications under open field conditions. The latter aimed to ensure the safe application of cyantraniliprole to tomato and contribute the derived residue data to the risk assessment under field conditions. Sample preparation involved a single step extraction with acetonitrile and sodium chloride for partitioning. The extract was purified utilizing florisil as cleanup reagent. The developed method was further evaluated by comparing the analytical results with those obtained using the QuEChERS technique. The novel method outbalanced QuEChERS regarding matrix interferences in the analysis, while it met all guideline criteria. Hence, it showed excellent linearity over the assayed concentration and yielded satisfactory recovery rate in the range of 88.9 to 96.5%. The half-life of degradation of cyantraniliprole was determined at 2.6 days. Based on the Codex MRL, the pre-harvest interval (PHI) for cyantraniliprole on tomato was 3 days, after treatment at the recommended dose. To our knowledge, the present work provides the first record on PHI determination of cyantraniliprole in tomato under open field conditions in Egypt and the broad Mediterranean region.

  19. Principles, application areas and an example of risk assessment conducted at the Danish Institute for Food and Veterinary Research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Greiner, Matthias; Paisley, Larry; Nørgaard, Julie Hostrup

    2004-01-01

    The Department for Epidemiology and Risk Analysis at the Danish Institute for Food and Veterinary Research (DFVF) is concerned with risk analyses in the areas of food safety, zoo noses, antimicrobial resistance and OIE (World Organisation for Animal Health) list A and B diseases. The DFVF...... is responsible for the risk assessment component of the risk analysis process and provides advice and support for the risk management and risk communication component, which is generally under the auspices of the Danish Veterinary and Food Administration (DVFA). The paper presents guidelines for the conduct...

  20. Risk assessment of forensic patients: nurses' role.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Encinares, Maxima; McMaster, Jeff James; McNamee, Jim

    2005-03-01

    One of the unique roles of forensic nurses is to conduct risk assessments. Establishing a therapeutic nurse-patient relationship helps forensic nurses perform accurate and useful risk assessments. Accurate risk assessments can facilitate formulation of individualized risk management plans, designed to meet patients' needs and ensure public safety. The importance of forensic nurses' knowledge and application of appropriate communication and proper documentation cannot be overemphasized.

  1. Concerning ethical risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boeckle, F.

    1991-01-01

    After a fundamental consideration of the concept of responsibility and 'long-term responsibility' for late sequelae, the problems of an ehtical assessment of risks were illustrated: The concept of risk itself poses three problems - predicting the probability of occurrence, assessing the damage = subjective classification of the degree of damage, determining whether the advantages outweigh the risks. It is not possible to weigh the advantages and risks against each other without assessing the goals and the priorities which have been set. Here ethics is called for, because it concerns itself with the reasonableness of evaluative decisions. Its task is to enable us to become aware of and comprehend our system of values in all of its complexity in reference to real life. Ethics can only fulfill its task if it helps us to adopt an integral perspective, i.e. if it centers on the human being. 'One must assess all technical and economic innovations in terms of whether they are beneficial to the development of mankind on a long-term basis. They are only to be legitimized insofar as they prove themselves to be a means of liberating mankind and contributing to his sense of dignity and identity, as a means of bringing human beings together and encouraging them to care for one another, and as a means of protecting the natural basis of our existence. (orig./HSCH) [de

  2. No-threshold dose-response curves for nongenotoxic chemicals: Findings and applications for risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sheehan, Daniel M.

    2006-01-01

    We tested the hypothesis that no threshold exists when estradiol acts through the same mechanism as an active endogenous estrogen. A Michaelis-Menten (MM) equation accounting for response saturation, background effects, and endogenous estrogen level fit a turtle sex-reversal data set with no threshold and estimated the endogenous dose. Additionally, 31 diverse literature dose-response data sets were analyzed by adding a term for nonhormonal background; good fits were obtained but endogenous dose estimations were not significant due to low resolving power. No thresholds were observed. Data sets were plotted using a normalized MM equation; all 178 data points were accommodated on a single graph. Response rates from ∼1% to >95% were well fit. The findings contradict the threshold assumption and low-dose safety. Calculating risk and assuming additivity of effects from multiple chemicals acting through the same mechanism rather than assuming a safe dose for nonthresholded curves is appropriate

  3. Applicability and feasibility of systematic review for performing evidence-based risk assessment in food and feed safety

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aiassa, E.; Higgins, J.P.T.; Frampton, G. K.

    2015-01-01

    for answering questions in health care, and can be implemented to minimise biases in food and feed safety risk assessment. However, no methodological frameworks exist for refining risk assessment multi-parameter models into questions suitable for systematic review, and use of meta-analysis to estimate all......Food and feed safety risk assessment uses multi-parameter models to evaluate the likelihood of adverse events associated with exposure to hazards in human health, plant health, animal health, animal welfare and the environment. Systematic review and meta-analysis are established methods...... parameters in the risk model. This approach to planning and prioritising systematic review seems to have useful implications for producing evidence-based food and feed safety risk assessment....

  4. [Joint application of mathematic models in assessing the residual risk of hepatitis C virus transmitted through blood transfusion].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xun; Jia, Yao; Xie, Yun-zheng; Li, Xiu-mei; Liu, Xiao-ying; Wu, Xiao-fei

    2011-09-01

    The practicable and effective methods for residual risk assessment on transfusion-transmitted disease was to establish the mathematic models. Based on the characteristics of the repeat donors which donated their blood on a regular base, a model of sero-conversion during the interval of donations was established to assess the incidence of the repeat donors. Based on the characteristics of the prevalence in the population, a model of 'prevalence increased with the age of the donor' was established to assess the incidence of those first-time donors. And based on the impact of the windows period through blood screening program, a model of residual risk associated with the incidence and the length of the windows period was established to assess the residual risk of blood transfusion. In this paper, above said 3 kinds of mathematic models were jointly applied to assess the residual risk of hepatitis C virus (HCV) which was transmitted through blood transfusion in Shanghai, based on data from the routine blood collection and screening program. All the anti-HCV unqualified blood donations were confirmed before assessment. Results showed that the residual risk of HCV transmitted through blood transfusion during Jan. 1(st), 2007 to Dec. 31(st), 2008 in Shanghai was 1:101 000. Data showed that the results of residual risk assessment with mathematic models was valuable. The residual risk of transfusion-transmitted HCV in Shanghai was at a safe level, according to the results in this paper.

  5. Risk assessment of atmospheric contamination due to combustion of fossil-fuels in Japan and possible application of fuzzy set

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nishiwaki, Y.; Shah, S.M.; Kanoh, E.

    1983-01-01

    For risk assessment of atmospheric contamination due to fossil-fuel combustion in Japan, epidemiological studies have been conducted since 1961. Health effects of sulfur dioxide in industrial areas of Japan where fossil-fuel power stations are located have been investigated. The dose-response relationship between prevalence rates of chronic bronchitis and sulphur dioxide was established. Various efforts have been made to reduce the concentrations of sulfur dioxide in the atmosphere. However, the average concentration of NO 2 tended to increase gradually. It was therefore considered important to study the health effects of nitrogen dioxide. In different areas of Japan with varying atmospheric concentrations of nitrogen dioxide, an extensive epidemiological survey was conducted with over 10,000 school-children. The results of the survey indicate that the prevalence rates of asthma and wheezing were higher with the higher degree of air pollution, and that the indoor pollution is important. It is also attempted to compare hazard indices of the air-borne wastes from fossil-fuel power plants and those from nuclear power plants. The conventional pollutants seem to be much more important as compared with the radioactive releases under normal conditions of operation. The survey of stochastic effects with very small chances of occurrence was not attempted because of the great uncertainties and difficulties in identifying a small signal within a large noise. The possible application of the theory of Fuzzy Set for risk analysis is suggested

  6. Regional risk assessment of reuse of ash in civil engineering applications; Regional riskanalys av askanvaendning i anlaeggningsbyggande

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wik, Ola

    2009-07-15

    A previously proposal (Vaermeforsk report 979, 2006) for common environmental guidelines for reuse of ash in civil engineering applications has only to a limited extent considered eventual additive effects of pollutants from other sources than recycled aggregates. Furthermore the assessment had a strict focus on local effects not considering the possible outcome of a large-scale use of alternative recycled aggregates. The objective of this project has been to characterize the risk of a large-scale use of ashes produced within a regional area. The project targeted at analysing: 1. The possible large-scale negative environmental effects of recycling all ashes fitting for civil engineering applications within a regional watershed area. 2. If environmental effects on a regional scale motivates adjustment of the proposed common environmental guidelines for reuse of ash. In order to perform a regional risk assessment information on the material flow of ashes and traditional aggregates as well as other anthropogenic and natural sources and flows of substances to be analysed is needed. The prime research task of this project was to: Generate material and substance flow information for two different watershed areas, Motala Stroem and Emaan, with respect to lead, cadmium and mercury; and to Compare the generated data with environmental quality standards for surface waters and draft river basin management plans presented by Swedish river basin district authorities. Data on material and substance flow was complied using the following practise; Ashes - data on material flow, substance content and emissions collected from all productions sites. Emissions was estimated using L/S 10 data from standardised leaching test. Missing data was assigned using expert judgement. Aggregates - data on material flow compiled from regional databases. Substance content and emissions calculated based on national generic data. Emissions was estimated using L/S 10 data from standardised leaching

  7. Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Waterhouse, Rachel [Consumer' s Association, Health and Safety Commission (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered.

  8. Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waterhouse, Rachel

    1992-01-01

    The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered

  9. Stochastic modeling concepts in groundwater and risk assessment: potential application to marine problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamed, Maged M.

    2000-01-01

    Parameter uncertainty is ubiquitous in marine environmental processes. Failure to account for this uncertainty may lead to erroneous results, and may have significant environmental and economic ramifications. Stochastic modeling of oil spill transport and fate is, therefore, central in the development of an oil spill contingency plan for new oil and gas projects. Over the past twenty years, several stochastic modeling tools have been developed for modeling parameter uncertainty, including the spectral, perturbation, and simulation methods. In this work we explore the application of a new stochastic methodology, the first-order reliability method (FORM), in oil spill modeling. FORM was originally developed in the structural reliability field and has been recently applied to various environmental problems. The method has many appealing features that makes it a powerful tool for modeling complex environmental systems. The theory of FORM is presented, identifying the features that distinguish the method from other stochastic tools. Different formulations to the reliability-based stochastic oil spill modeling are presented in a decision-analytic context. (Author)

  10. Phytoextraction of heavy metals from contaminated soil by co-cropping with chelator application and assessment of associated leaching risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Z B; Guo, X F; Wu, Q T; Long, X X; Penn, C J

    2011-08-01

    Phytoextraction using hyperaccumulating plants is generally time-consuming and requires the cessation of agriculture. We coupled chelators and a co-cropping system to enhance phytoextraction rates, while allowing for agricultural production. An experiment on I m3 lysimeter beds was conducted with a co-cropping system consisting of the hyperaccumulator Sedum alfredii and low-accumulating corn (Zea Mays, cv. Huidan-4), with addition ofa mixture of chelators (MC), to assess the efficiency of chelator enhanced co-crop phytoextraction and the leaching risk caused by the chelator. The results showed that the addition of MC promoted the growth of S. alfredii in the first crop (spring-summer season) and significantly increased the metal phytoextraction. The DTPA-extractable and total metal concentrations in the topsoil were also reduced more significantly with the addition of MC compared with the control treatments. However, mono-cropped S. alfredii without MC was more suitable for maximizing S. alfredii growth and therefore phytoextraction of Zn and Cd during the autumn-winter seasons. No adverse impact to groundwater due to MC application was observed during the experiments with three crops and three MC applications. But elevated total Cd and Pb concentrations among subsoils compared to the initial subsoil concentrations were found for the co-crop + MC treatment after the third crop.

  11. Integral risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chakraborty, S.; Yadigaroglu, G.

    1991-01-01

    The series of lectures which forms the basis of this book and took place in the winter of 1989/90 at the ETH in Zuerich were held for the purpose of discussing the stage of development of our system of ethics in view of the extremely fast pace of technological progress and the risks which accompany it. Legal, psychological and political aspects of the problem were examined, but the emphasis was placed on ethical aspects. The effects which are examined in conventional risk analyses can be considered as a part of the ethical and social aspects involved, and in turn, the consideration of ethical and social aspects can be viewed as an extension of the conventional form of risk analysis. In any case, among risk experts, the significance of ethical and social factors is uncontested, especially as regards activities which can have far-reaching repurcussions. Some objective difficulties interfere with this goal, however: - No generally acknowledged set of ethical values exists. - Cultural influences and personal motives can interfere. - Normally a risk assessment is carried out in reference to individual facilities and within a small, clearly defined framework. Under certain circumstances, generalizations which are made for complete technological systems can lead to completely different conclusions. One contribution deals with integral views of the risks of atomic energy from an ethical and social perspective. (orig.) [de

  12. Probabilistic risk assessment of HTGRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleming, K.N.; Houghton, W.J.; Hannaman, G.W.; Joksimovic, V.

    1980-08-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment methods have been applied to gas-cooled reactors for more than a decade and to HTGRs for more than six years in the programs sponsored by the US Department of Energy. Significant advancements to the development of PRA methodology in these programs are summarized as are the specific applications of the methods to HTGRs. Emphasis here is on PRA as a tool for evaluating HTGR design options. Current work and future directions are also discussed

  13. Probabilistic risk assessment of HTGRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleming, K.N.; Houghton, W.J.; Hannaman, G.W.; Joksimovic, V.

    1981-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment methods have been applied to gas-cooled reactors for more than a decade and to HTGRs for more than six years in the programs sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy. Significant advancements to the development of PRA methodology in these programs are summarized as are the specific applications of the methods to HTGRs. Emphasis here is on PRA as a tool for evaluating HTGR design options. Current work and future directions are also discussed. (author)

  14. Statistical modeling of complex health outcomes and air pollution data: Application of air quality health indexing for asthma risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Swarna Weerasinghe

    2017-03-01

    Conclusion:  This study demonstrated the importance of complex statistical model use and the consequences of lack of such modelling that accounted for data structures in public health risk assessments.

  15. Hygienic assessment of professional risk for worker, involved in application of pesticides and tank mixtures in chemical protection of strawberry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zinchenko T.I.

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available When using tank mixtures and pesticides in chemical crop protection systems there exists danger of simultaneous or sequential action of ingredients. It was established that the combined potential risk of the harmful effects of Torero SC preparation on workers is 0.11-0.30 arb.units, Switch 62.5 WG – 0.054-0,065 arb.units, tank mixture 1 – 0.26-0.51 arb.units, tank mixture 2 – 0.26-0.49 arb.units correspondently and does not exceed the allowable value of risk (<1. The combined risk in sequential application of components of chemical protection system of strawberry exceeds allowable values of risk and is 0.954-2.02 arb.units. Ways of occupational risk decrease were proposed and regulations of safe application of tank mixtures and pesticides in chemical protection of strawberry were substantiated.

  16. Risk assessment and risk evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niehaus, F.

    1978-01-01

    With the help of results of investigations and model calculations the risk of nuclear energy in routine operation is shown. In this context it is pointed out that the excellent operation results of reactors all over the world have led to the acceptability of risks from local loads no longer being in question. The attention of radiation protection is therefore focused on the emissions of long-living isotopes which collect in the atmosphere. With LWRs the risk of accidents is so minimal that statistical data is, and never will be available. One has to therefore fall back upon the so-called fault tree analyses. On the subject of risk evalution the author referred to a poll in Austria. From the result of this investigation one might conclude that nuclear energy serves as a crystallization point for a discussion of varying concepts for future development. More attention should be paid to this aspect from both sides, in order to objectify the further expansion of this source of energy. (orig./HP) [de

  17. Risk assessment handbook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farmer, F.G.; Jones, J.L.; Hunt, R.N.; Roush, M.L.; Wierman, T.E.

    1990-09-01

    The Probabilistic Risk Assessment Unit at EG ampersand G Idaho has developed this handbook to provide guidance to a facility manager exploring the potential benefit to be gained by performance of a risk assessment properly scoped to meet local needs. This document is designed to help the manager control the resources expended commensurate with the risks being managed and to assure that the products can be used programmatically to support future needs in order to derive maximum beneflt from the resources expended. We present a logical and functional mapping scheme between several discrete phases of project definition to ensure that a potential customer, working with an analyst, is able to define the areas of interest and that appropriate methods are employed in the analysis. In addition the handbook is written to provide a high-level perspective for the analyst. Previously, the needed information was either scattered or existed only in the minds of experienced analysts. By compiling this information and exploring the breadth of knowledge which exists within the members of the PRA Unit, the functional relationships between the customers' needs and the product have been established

  18. Environmental risk assessment of pesticides in Ethiopia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Teklu, B.M.

    2016-01-01

    The current increase in application rate and usage frequency of application of pesticides in Ethiopia pose direct risks to surface water aquatic organisms and humans and cattle using surface water as a source of drinking water in rural parts of the country. A model based risk assessment as

  19. Analytical solutions of linked fault tree probabilistic risk assessments using binary decision diagrams with emphasis on nuclear safety applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nusbaumer, O. P. M.

    2007-01-01

    This study is concerned with the quantification of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) using linked Fault Tree (FT) models. Probabilistic Risk assessment (PRA) of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) complements traditional deterministic analysis; it is widely recognized as a comprehensive and structured approach to identify accident scenarios and to derive numerical estimates of the associated risk levels. PRA models as found in the nuclear industry have evolved rapidly. Increasingly, they have been broadly applied to support numerous applications on various operational and regulatory matters. Regulatory bodies in many countries require that a PRA be performed for licensing purposes. PRA has reached the point where it can considerably influence the design and operation of nuclear power plants. However, most of the tools available for quantifying large PRA models are unable to produce analytically correct results. The algorithms of such quantifiers are designed to neglect sequences when their likelihood decreases below a predefined cutoff limit. In addition, the rare event approximation (e.g. Moivre's equation) is typically implemented for the first order, ignoring the success paths and the possibility that two or more events can occur simultaneously. This is only justified in assessments where the probabilities of the basic events are low. When the events in question are failures, the first order rare event approximation is always conservative, resulting in wrong interpretation of risk importance measures. Advanced NPP PRA models typically include human errors, common cause failure groups, seismic and phenomenological basic events, where the failure probabilities may approach unity, leading to questionable results. It is accepted that current quantification tools have reached their limits, and that new quantification techniques should be investigated. A novel approach using the mathematical concept of Binary Decision Diagram (BDD) is proposed to overcome these deficiencies

  20. Development and application of a novel method for regional assessment of groundwater contamination risk in the Songhua River Basin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nixdorf, Erik; Sun, Yuanyuan; Lin, Mao; Kolditz, Olaf

    2017-12-15

    The main objective of this study is to quantify the groundwater contamination risk of Songhua River Basin by applying a novel approach of integrating public datasets, web services and numerical modelling techniques. To our knowledge, this study is the first to establish groundwater risk maps for the entire Songhua River Basin, one of the largest and most contamination-endangered river basins in China. Index-based groundwater risk maps were created with GIS tools at a spatial resolution of 30arc sec by combining the results of groundwater vulnerability and hazard assessment. Groundwater vulnerability was evaluated using the DRASTIC index method based on public datasets at the highest available resolution in combination with numerical groundwater modelling. As a novel approach to overcome data scarcity at large scales, a web mapping service based data query was applied to obtain an inventory for potential hazardous sites within the basin. The groundwater risk assessment demonstrated that contamination risk. These areas were mainly located in the vast plain areas with hotspots particularly in the Changchun metropolitan area. Moreover, groundwater levels and pollution point sources were found to play a significantly larger impact in assessing these areas than originally assumed by the index scheme. Moderate contamination risk was assigned to 27% of the aquifers, predominantly associated with less densely populated agricultural areas. However, the majority of aquifer area in the sparsely populated mountain ranges displayed low groundwater contamination risk. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated that this novel method is valid for regional assessments of groundwater contamination risk. Despite limitations in resolution and input data consistency, the obtained groundwater contamination risk maps will be beneficial for regional and local decision-making processes with regard to groundwater protection measures, particularly if other data availability is limited. Copyright

  1. Risk assessment and management in IOR projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goodyear, S.G.; Gregory, A.T.

    1994-01-01

    The application of IOR techniques is one of the investment opportunities open to Exploration and Production companies. A project will only go forward if the perceived balance between the rewards and the risks is acceptable. IOR projects may be ruled out because they are considered to involve significantly higher risks than conventional developments. Therefore, some means of evaluating the actual level of risk may be required if the full economic benefits from IOR techniques are to be realized. Risk assessment is a key element in safety cases, where a well-established methodology for quantifying risk exists. This paper discusses the extension of these methods to IOR project risk assessment. Combining reservoir and IOR technique uncertainties with their impact on project performance allows project risk to be better quantified. The results of the risk assessment are presented in terms of a risk-reward diagram that plots the probability surface for possible project outcomes as a function of NPV (reward) and exposure (risk)

  2. Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) Database

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Veterans Affairs — The Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) database is part of the VA Surgical Quality Improvement Program (VASQIP). This database contains assessments of selected surgical...

  3. Colombia Mi Pronostico Flood Application: Updating and Improving the Mi Pronostico Flood Web Application to Include an Assessment of Flood Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rushley, Stephanie; Carter, Matthew; Chiou, Charles; Farmer, Richard; Haywood, Kevin; Pototzky, Anthony, Jr.; White, Adam; Winker, Daniel

    2014-01-01

    Colombia is a country with highly variable terrain, from the Andes Mountains to plains and coastal areas, many of these areas are prone to flooding disasters. To identify these risk areas NASA's Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) was used to construct a digital elevation model (DEM) for the study region. The preliminary risk assessment was applied to a pilot study area, the La Mosca River basin. Precipitation data from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)'s near-real-time rainfall products as well as precipitation data from the Instituto de Hidrologia, Meteorologia y Estudios Ambientales (the Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies, IDEAM) and stations in the La Mosca River Basin were used to create rainfall distribution maps for the region. Using the precipitation data and the ASTER DEM, the web application, Mi Pronóstico, run by IDEAM, was updated to include an interactive map which currently allows users to search for a location and view the vulnerability and current weather and flooding conditions. The geospatial information was linked to an early warning system in Mi Pronóstico that can alert the public of flood warnings and identify locations of nearby shelters.

  4. Application of probabilistic risk assessment: Evaluating remedial alternatives at the Portland Harbor Superfund Site, Portland, Oregon, USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruffle, Betsy; Henderson, James; Murphy-Hagan, Clare; Kirkwood, Gemma; Wolf, Frederick; Edwards, Deborah A

    2018-01-01

    A probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) was performed to evaluate the range of potential baseline and postremedy health risks to fish consumers at the Portland Harbor Superfund Site (the "Site"). The analysis focused on risks of consuming fish resident to the Site containing polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), given that this exposure scenario and contaminant are the primary basis for US Environmental Protection Agency's (USEPA's) selected remedy per the January 2017 Record of Decision (ROD). The PRA used probability distributions fit to the same data sets used in the deterministic baseline human health risk assessment (BHHRA) as well as recent sediment and fish tissue data to evaluate the range and likelihood of current baseline cancer risks and noncancer hazards for anglers. Areas of elevated PCBs in sediment were identified on the basis of a geospatial evaluation of the surface sediment data, and the ranges of risks and hazards associated with pre- and postremedy conditions were calculated. The analysis showed that less active remediation (targeted to areas with the highest concentrations) compared to the remedial alternative selected by USEPA in the ROD can achieve USEPA's interim risk management benchmarks (cancer risk of 10 -4 and noncancer hazard index [HI] of 10) immediately postremediation for the vast majority of subsistence anglers that consume smallmouth bass (SMB) fillet tissue. In addition, the same targeted remedy achieves USEPA's long-term benchmarks (10 -5 and HI of 1) for the majority of recreational anglers. Additional sediment remediation would result in negligible additional risk reduction due to the influence of background. The PRA approach applied here provides a simple but adaptive framework for analysis of risks and remedial options focused on variability in exposures. It can be updated and refined with new data to evaluate and reduce uncertainty, improve understanding of the Site and target populations, and foster informed remedial decision

  5. Assessment of technical risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jaeger, T A [Bundesanstalt fuer Materialpruefung, Berlin (Germany, F.R.)

    1978-01-01

    The safety of technical systems is so difficult to assess because the concept 'risk' contains technical-scientific factors as well as components of individual and social psychology. Immediate or short-term hazards of human life as i.e. caused by the operation of industrial plants and mediate and thus long-term hazards have to be distinguished. Characteristic for the second hazard groups is the great time-lag before the effect takes place. Thus a causal relationship can be recognized only late and not definitely. Even when the causes have been obviated the effects still show. The development of a systems-analytical model as a basis of decisive processes for the introduction of highly endangered large-scale technologies seems particularly difficult. A starting point for the quantification of the risk can still be seen in the product of the probability of realization and the extent of the damage. Public opinion, however, does not base its evaluations on an objective concept of risk but tends to have an attitude of aversion against great and disastrous accidents. On the other hand, plenty of slight accidents are accepted much more easily, even when the amount of deadly victims from accidents reaches dimensions beyond those of the rare large-scale accidents. Here, mostly the damage possible but not the probability of its occurence is seen, let alone the general use of the new technology. The value of the mathematical models for estimating risks is mainly due to the fact that they are able to clear up decisions.

  6. Comparing models for quantitative risk assessment: an application to the European Registry of foreign body injuries in children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berchialla, Paola; Scarinzi, Cecilia; Snidero, Silvia; Gregori, Dario

    2016-08-01

    Risk Assessment is the systematic study of decisions subject to uncertain consequences. An increasing interest has been focused on modeling techniques like Bayesian Networks since their capability of (1) combining in the probabilistic framework different type of evidence including both expert judgments and objective data; (2) overturning previous beliefs in the light of the new information being received and (3) making predictions even with incomplete data. In this work, we proposed a comparison among Bayesian Networks and other classical Quantitative Risk Assessment techniques such as Neural Networks, Classification Trees, Random Forests and Logistic Regression models. Hybrid approaches, combining both Classification Trees and Bayesian Networks, were also considered. Among Bayesian Networks, a clear distinction between purely data-driven approach and combination of expert knowledge with objective data is made. The aim of this paper consists in evaluating among this models which best can be applied, in the framework of Quantitative Risk Assessment, to assess the safety of children who are exposed to the risk of inhalation/insertion/aspiration of consumer products. The issue of preventing injuries in children is of paramount importance, in particular where product design is involved: quantifying the risk associated to product characteristics can be of great usefulness in addressing the product safety design regulation. Data of the European Registry of Foreign Bodies Injuries formed the starting evidence for risk assessment. Results showed that Bayesian Networks appeared to have both the ease of interpretability and accuracy in making prediction, even if simpler models like logistic regression still performed well. © The Author(s) 2013.

  7. Overview of the probabilistic risk assessment approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reed, J.W.

    1985-01-01

    The techniques of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) are applicable to Department of Energy facilities. The background and techniques of PRA are given with special attention to seismic, wind and flooding external events. A specific application to seismic events is provided to demonstrate the method. However, the PRA framework is applicable also to wind and external flooding. 3 references, 8 figures, 1 table

  8. Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage.

  9. Application of the BRAFO-tiered approach for benefit-risk assessment to case studies on natural foods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watzl, Bernhard; Gelencsér, Eva; Hoekstra, Jeljer; Kulling, Sabine; Lydeking-Olsen, Eva; Rowland, Ian; Schilter, Benoît; van Klaveren, Jakob; Chiodini, Alessandro

    2012-11-01

    There is evidence that consumption of fish, especially oily fish, has substantial beneficial effects on health. In particular an inverse relationship of oily fish intake to coronary heart disease incidence has been established. These beneficial effects are ascribed to fish oil components including long chain ω-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids. On the other hand it should be noted that oily fish also contains hazardous substances such as dioxins, PCBs and methylmercury. Soy consumption has been associated with potential beneficial and adverse effects. The claimed benefits include reduced risk of cardiovascular disease; osteoporosis, breast and prostate cancer whereas potential adverse effects include impaired thyroid function, disruption of sex hormone levels, changes in reproductive function and increased breast cancer risk The two cases of natural foods highlight the need to consider both risks and benefits in order to establish the net health impact associated to the consumption of specific food products. Within the Sixth Framework programme of the European Commission, the BRAFO project was funded to develop a framework that allows for the quantitative comparison of human health risks and benefits in relation to foods and food compounds. This paper describes the application of the developed framework to two natural foods, farmed salmon and soy protein. We conclude that the BRAFO methodology is highly applicable to natural foods. It will help the benefit-risk managers in selecting the appropriate dietary recommendations for the population. Copyright © 2011 ILSI Europe. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  10. The "Aachen fall prevention App" - a Smartphone application app for the self-assessment of elderly patients at risk for ground level falls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasche, Peter; Mertens, Alexander; Bröhl, Christina; Theis, Sabine; Seinsch, Tobias; Wille, Matthias; Pape, Hans-Christoph; Knobe, Matthias

    2017-01-01

    Fall incidents are a major problem for patients and healthcare. The "Aachen Fall Prevention App" (AFPA) represents the first mobile Health (mHealth) application (app) empowering older patients (persons 50+ years) to self-assess and monitor their individual fall risk. Self-assessment is based on the "Aachen Fall Prevention Scale," which consists of three steps. First, patients answer ten standardized yes-no questions (positive criterion ≥ 5 "Yes" responses). Second, a ten-second test of free standing without compensatory movement is performed (positive criterion: compensatory movement). Finally, during the third step, patients rate their subjective fall risk on a 10-point Likert scale, based on the results of steps one and two. The purpose of this app is (1) to offer a low-threshold service through which individuals can independently monitor their individual fall risk and (2) to collect data about how a patient-centered mHealth app for fall risk assessment is used in the field. The results represent the first year of an ongoing field study. From December 2015 to December 2016, 197 persons downloaded the AFPA (iOS ™ and Android ™ ; free of charge). N  = 111 of these persons voluntarily shared their data and thereby participated in the field study. Data from a final number of n  = 79 persons were analyzed due to exclusion criteria (age, missing objective fall risk, missing self-assessment). The objective fall risk and the self-assessed subjective risk measured by the AFPA showed a significant positive relationship. The "Aachen Fall Prevention App" (AFPA) is an mHealth app released for iOS and Android. This field study revealed the AFPA as a promising tool to raise older adults' awareness of their individual fall risk by means of a low-threshold patient-driven fall risk assessment tool.

  11. Caries risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mejàre, I; Axelsson, S; Dahlén, G

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To assess the ability of multivariate models and single factors to correctly identify future caries development in pre-school children and schoolchildren/adolescents. STUDY DESIGN: A systematic literature search for relevant papers was conducted with pre-determined inclusion criteria...... predictors, baseline caries experience had moderate/good accuracy in pre-school children and limited accuracy in schoolchildren/adolescents. The period of highest risk for caries incidence in permanent teeth was the first few years after tooth eruption. In general, the quality of evidence was limited....... CONCLUSIONS: Multivariate models and baseline caries prevalence performed better in pre-school children than in schoolchildren/adolescents. Baseline caries prevalence was the most accurate single predictor in all age groups. The heterogeneity of populations, models, outcome criteria, measures and reporting...

  12. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

    2009-01-01

    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  13. Risk assessment strategies as a tool in the application of the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP) and Food Safety Objective (FSO) by risk managers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gkogka, E; Reij, M W; Gorris, L G M; Zwietering, M H

    2013-10-01

    In the course of the last decade, the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), the Food Safety Objective (FSO) and their associated metrics have been proposed by the World Trade Organization and Codex Alimentarius as a means for competent authorities to ultimately translate governmental public health policy regarding food safety into risk-based targets for the food industry. The industry needs to meet these targets through the effective choice of control measures that are part of its operational food safety management system. The aim of this study was to put the practical application of ALOP and FSO to the test in the case of Salmonella in chicken meat in the Netherlands. Two different risk assessment approaches were applied to derive potential ALOP and FSO values, a 'top-down' approach based on epidemiological data and a 'bottom-up' approach based on food supply chain data. To this end, two stochastic models specific to the Dutch situation were built. Comparisons between 23 countries in Europe were also made using the top-down model. The mean estimated current Level Of Protection values were similar for the two approaches applied, with the bottom-up model yielding 87 cases per 100,000 inhabitants per year (95% CI: 0.03, 904) and the top-down model 71 (95% CI: 9.9, 155). The estimated FSO values on the other hand were considerably different with the mean 'top down' FSO being -4.6 log CFU/g (95% CI: -5.4, -4.1) and the mean 'bottom-up' FSO -6.0 log CFU/g (95% CI: -8.1, -2.9) reflecting major differences in the output distributions of this parameter obtained with the two approaches. Significant differences were observed between current LOP values for different EU countries, although it was not clear whether this was due to actual differences in the factors influencing the risk of salmonellosis or due to the quality of the available data. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Methods of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, D.R.

    1981-01-01

    The subject is discussed under the headings: introduction (identification, quantification of risk); some approaches to risk evaluation (use of the 'no risk' principle; the 'acceptable risk' method; risk balancing; comparison of risks, benefits and other costs); cost benefit analysis; an alternative approach (tabulation and display; description and reduction of the data table); identification of potential decision sets consistent with the constraints. Some references are made to nuclear power. (U.K.)

  15. Risk assessments ensure safer power

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1982-02-19

    A growth industry is emerging devoted to the study and comparison of the economic, social and health risks posed by large industrial installations. Electricity generation is one area coming under particularly close scrutiny. Types of risk, ways of assessing risk and the difference between experts' analyses and the public perception of risk are given. An example of improved risk assessment helping to reduce deaths and injuries in coal mining is included.

  16. Application of ecological risk assessment to establish nonhuman environmental protection at nuclear generating stations in Ontario, Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wismer, D.A.

    2004-01-01

    A screening ecological risk assessment was performed for regulatory compliance at three Ontario nuclear generating station sites to establish design requirements for a routine contaminant monitoring program and to address the need for non-contaminant stressor management. Site specific assessments went beyond traditional contaminant risk assessment to include stressors associated with land-use change, cooling water systems and site storm water runoff. Valued terrestrial and aquatic ecosystem components were selected from species lists after stakeholder consultation, and contaminants of concern were selected based on their relative loadings, and with respect to regulatory and literature-based benchmarks. Predictive modeling was used to estimate chemical and radionuclide exposures and likelihood of effects. Adverse effects on individual biota were predicted for aqueous emissions of chlorine and storm water but not for radionuclides. Retrospective analyses of past field monitoring were used to determine likelihood of effects from non-contaminant stressors. Individual-level adverse effects were observed for fish losses from cooling water withdrawal. Depending on the site and the biological species, either beneficial or adverse effects from thermal discharge and land-use change were observed. Followup studies include monitoring, laboratory study, computer modeling and mitigation. Field monitoring will generate more precise species-level estimates of intake fish losses, magnitude of fish response to thermal discharge and chlorine concentrations in near-field discharge waters. Laboratory study is determining the effectiveness of intake fish loss mitigation technology. Computer fish population models are being used to design field studies and interpret individual level effects. Mitigation includes storm water controls and habitat biodiversity management projects to offset past losses from site development and construction. Routine contaminant monitoring is planned to

  17. Cardiovascular risk from water arsenic exposure in Vietnam: Application of systematic review and meta-regression analysis in chemical health risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phung, Dung; Connell, Des; Rutherford, Shannon; Chu, Cordia

    2017-06-01

    A systematic review (SR) and meta-analysis cannot provide the endpoint answer for a chemical risk assessment (CRA). The objective of this study was to apply SR and meta-regression (MR) analysis to address this limitation using a case study in cardiovascular risk from arsenic exposure in Vietnam. Published studies were searched from PubMed using the keywords of arsenic exposure and cardiovascular diseases (CVD). Random-effects meta-regression was applied to model the linear relationship between arsenic concentration in water and risk of CVD, and then the no-observable-adverse-effect level (NOAEL) were identified from the regression function. The probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) technique was applied to characterize risk of CVD due to arsenic exposure by estimating the overlapping coefficient between dose-response and exposure distribution curves. The risks were evaluated for groundwater, treated and drinking water. A total of 8 high quality studies for dose-response and 12 studies for exposure data were included for final analyses. The results of MR suggested a NOAEL of 50 μg/L and a guideline of 5 μg/L for arsenic in water which valued as a half of NOAEL and guidelines recommended from previous studies and authorities. The results of PRA indicated that the observed exposure level with exceeding CVD risk was 52% for groundwater, 24% for treated water, and 10% for drinking water in Vietnam, respectively. The study found that systematic review and meta-regression can be considered as an ideal method to chemical risk assessment due to its advantages to bring the answer for the endpoint question of a CRA. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Defense Programs Transportation Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clauss, D.B.

    1994-01-01

    This paper provides an overview of the methodology used in a probabilistic transportation risk assessment conducted to assess the probabilities and consequences of inadvertent dispersal of radioactive materials arising from severe transportation accidents. The model was developed for the Defense Program Transportation Risk Assessment (DPTRA) study. The analysis incorporates several enhancements relative to previous risk assessments of hazardous materials transportation including newly-developed statistics on the frequencies and severities of tractor semitrailer accidents and detailed route characterization using the 1990 Census data

  19. Application of ISO22000, failure mode, and effect analysis (FMEA) cause and effect diagrams and pareto in conjunction with HACCP and risk assessment for processing of pastry products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varzakas, Theodoros H

    2011-09-01

    The Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) model has been applied for the risk assessment of pastry processing. A tentative approach of FMEA application to the pastry industry was attempted in conjunction with ISO22000. Preliminary Hazard Analysis was used to analyze and predict the occurring failure modes in a food chain system (pastry processing plant), based on the functions, characteristics, and/or interactions of the ingredients or the processes, upon which the system depends. Critical Control points have been identified and implemented in the cause and effect diagram (also known as Ishikawa, tree diagram, and fishbone diagram). In this work a comparison of ISO22000 analysis with HACCP is carried out over pastry processing and packaging. However, the main emphasis was put on the quantification of risk assessment by determining the Risk Priority Number (RPN) per identified processing hazard. Storage of raw materials and storage of final products at -18°C followed by freezing were the processes identified as the ones with the highest RPN (225, 225, and 144 respectively) and corrective actions were undertaken. Following the application of corrective actions, a second calculation of RPN values was carried out leading to considerably lower values (below the upper acceptable limit of 130). It is noteworthy that the application of Ishikawa (Cause and Effect or Tree diagram) led to converging results thus corroborating the validity of conclusions derived from risk assessment and FMEA. Therefore, the incorporation of FMEA analysis within the ISO22000 system of a pastry processing industry is considered imperative.

  20. Risk assessment for halogenated solvents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Travis, C.C.

    1988-01-01

    A recent development in the cancer risk area is the advent of biologically based pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic models. These models allow for the incorporation of biological and mechanistic data into the risk assessment process. These advances will not only improve the risk assessment process for halogenated solvents but will stimulate and guide basic research in the biological area

  1. Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.

  2. Quantitative microbiological risk assessment as a tool to obtain useful information for risk managers - specific application to Listeria monocytogenes and ready-to-eat meat products

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mataragas, M.; Zwietering, M.H.; Skandamis, P.N.; Drosinos, E.H.

    2010-01-01

    The presence of Listeria monocytogenes in a sliced cooked, cured ham-like meat product was quantitatively assessed. Sliced cooked, cured meat products are considered as high risk products. These ready-to-eat, RTE, products (no special preparation, e.g. thermal treatment, before eating is required),

  3. Risk Assessment in the Maritime Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Mousavi

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment is a well-developed field which many operators are currently applying to improve their operations and reduce their risk exposure. This paper is intended to provide an overview of the risk assessment for mariners in the Maritime transportation. The risks addressed are primarily those affecting the safety of a vessel, facility or operation. The concept of risk is defined, and the methods available to assess the risks associated with an operation are described. Regulatory requirements that have prompted the development of modern risk assessment practices are described, and future regulatory trends are discussed. There are many different analysis techniques and models that have been developed to aid in conducting risk assessments. A key to any successful risk analysis is choosing the right method (or combination of methods for the situation at hand. This is achieved through critical analysis of the available data concerning marine crises. This paper provides a brief introduction to some of the analysis methods available and suggests risk analysis approaches to support different types of decision making within the maritime transportation to cope with crises. Finally, as awareness of risk assessment increases, the benefits which can be realized through its application will continue to increase. Organizations in both the public and the private sector are becoming more and more familiar with the benefits associated with risk-based approaches to managing safety and consequently reducing crisis in maritime transportation.

  4. Development and Application of a Probabilistic Risk-Benefit Assessment Model for Infant Feeding Integrating Microbiological, Nutritional, and Chemical Components.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boué, Géraldine; Cummins, Enda; Guillou, Sandrine; Antignac, Jean-Philippe; Le Bizec, Bruno; Membré, Jeanne-Marie

    2017-12-01

    A probabilistic and interdisciplinary risk-benefit assessment (RBA) model integrating microbiological, nutritional, and chemical components was developed for infant milk, with the objective of predicting the health impact of different scenarios of consumption. Infant feeding is a particular concern of interest in RBA as breast milk and powder infant formula have both been associated with risks and benefits related to chemicals, bacteria, and nutrients, hence the model considers these three facets. Cronobacter sakazakii, dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyls (dl-PCB), and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) were three risk/benefit factors selected as key issues in microbiology, chemistry, and nutrition, respectively. The present model was probabilistic with variability and uncertainty separated using a second-order Monte Carlo simulation process. In this study, advantages and limitations of undertaking probabilistic and interdisciplinary RBA are discussed. In particular, the probabilistic technique was found to be powerful in dealing with missing data and to translate assumptions into quantitative inputs while taking uncertainty into account. In addition, separation of variability and uncertainty strengthened the interpretation of the model outputs by enabling better consideration and distinction of natural heterogeneity from lack of knowledge. Interdisciplinary RBA is necessary to give more structured conclusions and avoid contradictory messages to policymakers and also to consumers, leading to more decisive food recommendations. This assessment provides a conceptual development of the RBA methodology and is a robust basis on which to build upon. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  5. Application of Wildfire Risk Assessment Results to Wildfire Response Planning in the Southern Sierra Nevada, California, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew P. Thompson

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available How wildfires are managed is a key determinant of long-term socioecological resiliency and the ability to live with fire. Safe and effective response to fire requires effective pre-fire planning, which is the main focus of this paper. We review general principles of effective federal fire management planning in the U.S., and introduce a framework for incident response planning consistent with these principles. We contextualize this framework in relation to a wildland fire management continuum based on federal fire management policy in the U.S. The framework leverages recent advancements in spatial wildfire risk assessment—notably the joint concepts of in situ risk and source risk—and integrates assessment results with additional geospatial information to develop and map strategic response zones. We operationalize this framework in a geographic information system (GIS environment based on landscape attributes relevant to fire operations, and define Potential wildland fire Operational Delineations (PODs as the spatial unit of analysis for strategic response. Using results from a recent risk assessment performed on several National Forests in the Southern Sierra Nevada area of California, USA, we illustrate how POD-level summaries of risk metrics can reduce uncertainty surrounding potential losses and benefits given large fire occurrence, and lend themselves naturally to design of fire and fuel management strategies. To conclude we identify gaps, limitations, and uncertainties, and prioritize future work to support safe and effective incident response.

  6. Application of trial risk acceptance criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, D.H.; Kastenberg, W.E.; Okrent, D.

    1982-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to investigate some of the implications inherent in the application of various proposed sets of risk acceptance criteria. A power-law model of risk aversion is utilized to estimate the equivalent number of individual deaths and is treated parametrically. The implications of ALARA requirements for cost-effective improvements are also illustrated. The risks assessed for various technological endeavors, as well as some estimated natural background risks, are compared to the trial criteria

  7. Degradation of three fungicides following application on strawberry and a risk assessment of their toxicity under greenhouse conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Caixia; Cang, Tao; Wang, Zhiwei; Wang, Xinquan; Yu, Ruixian; Wang, Qiang; Zhao, Xueping

    2015-05-01

    The health risk to humans of pesticide application on minor crops, such as strawberry, requires quantification. Here, the dissipation and residual levels of three fungicides (pyraclostrobin, myclobutanil, and difenoconazole) were studied for strawberry under greenhouse conditions using high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC)-tandem mass spectrometry after Quick, Easy, Cheap, Effective, Rugged, and Safe extraction. This method was validated using blank samples, with all mean recoveries of these three fungicides exceeding 80%. The residues of all three fungicides dissipated following first-order kinetics. The half-lives of pyraclostrobin, myclobutanil, and difenoconazole were 1.69, 3.30, and 3.65 days following one time application and 1.73, 5.78, and 6.30 days following two times applications, respectively. Fungicide residue was determined by comparing the estimated daily intake of the three fungicides against the acceptable daily intake. The results indicate that the potential health risk of the three fungicides was not significant in strawberry when following good agricultural practices (GAP) under greenhouse conditions.

  8. Methodology of environmental risk assessment management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saša T. Bakrač

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Successful protection of environment is mostly based on high-quality assessment of potential and present risks. Environmental risk management is a complex process which includes: identification, assessment and control of risk, namely taking measures in order to minimize the risk to an acceptable level. Environmental risk management methodology: In addition to these phases in the management of environmental risk, appropriate measures that affect the reduction of risk occurrence should be implemented: - normative and legal regulations (laws and regulations, - appropriate organizational structures in society, and - establishing quality monitoring of environment. The emphasis is placed on the application of assessment methodologies (three-model concept, as the most important aspect of successful management of environmental risk. Risk assessment methodology - European concept: The first concept of ecological risk assessment methodology is based on the so-called European model-concept. In order to better understand this ecological risk assessment methodology, two concepts - hazard and risk - are introduced. The European concept of environmental risk assessment has the following phases in its implementation: identification of hazard (danger, identification of consequences (if there is hazard, estimate of the scale of consequences, estimate of consequence probability and risk assessment (also called risk characterization. The European concept is often used to assess risk in the environment as a model for addressing the distribution of stressors along the source - path - receptor line. Risk assessment methodology - Canadian concept: The second concept of the methodology of environmental risk assessment is based on the so-called Canadian model-concept. The assessment of ecological risk includes risk arising from natural events (floods, extreme weather conditions, etc., technological processes and products, agents (chemical, biological, radiological, etc

  9. Application of remote sensing data and GIS for landslide risk assessment as an environmental threat to Izmir city (west Turkey).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akgun, Aykut; Kıncal, Cem; Pradhan, Biswajeet

    2012-09-01

    In this study, landslide risk assessment for Izmir city (west Turkey) was carried out, and the environmental effects of landslides on further urban development were evaluated using geographical information systems and remote sensing techniques. For this purpose, two different data groups, namely conditioning and triggering data, were produced. With the help of conditioning data such as lithology, slope gradient, slope aspect, distance from roads, distance from faults and distance from drainage lines, a landslide susceptibility model was constructed by using logistic regression modelling approach. The accuracy assessment of the susceptibility map was carried out by the area under curvature (AUC) approach, and a 0.810 AUC value was obtained. This value shows that the map obtained is successful. Due to the fact that the study area is located in an active seismic region, earthquake data were considered as primary triggering factor contributing to landslide occurrence. In addition to this, precipitation data were also taken into account as a secondary triggering factor. Considering the susceptibility data and triggering factors, a landslide hazard index was obtained. Furthermore, using the Aster data, a land-cover map was produced with an overall kappa value of 0.94. From this map, settlement areas were extracted, and these extracted data were assessed as elements at risk in the study area. Next, a vulnerability index was created by using these data. Finally, the hazard index and the vulnerability index were combined, and a landslide risk map for Izmir city was obtained. Based on this final risk map, it was observed that especially south and north parts of the Izmir Bay, where urbanization is dense, are threatened to future landsliding. This result can be used for preliminary land use planning by local governmental authorities.

  10. Information needs for risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DeRosa, C.T.; Choudhury, H.; Schoeny, R.S.

    1990-12-31

    Risk assessment can be thought of as a conceptual approach to bridge the gap between the available data and the ultimate goal of characterizing the risk or hazard associated with a particular environmental problem. To lend consistency to and to promote quality in the process, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Carcinogenicity, Developmental Toxicity, Germ Cell Mutagenicity and Exposure Assessment, and Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures. The guidelines provide a framework for organizing the information, evaluating data, and for carrying out the risk assessment in a scientifically plausible manner. In the absence of sufficient scientific information or when abundant data are available, the guidelines provide alternative methodologies that can be employed in the risk assessment. 4 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  11. Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

    2006-01-01

    Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of

  12. Potential application of population models in the European ecological risk assessment of chemicals. II. Review of models and their potential to address environmental protection aims.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galic, Nika; Hommen, Udo; Baveco, J M Hans; van den Brink, Paul J

    2010-07-01

    Whereas current chemical risk assessment (RA) schemes within the European Union (EU) focus mainly on toxicity and bioaccumulation of chemicals in individual organisms, most protection goals aim at preserving populations of nontarget organisms rather than individuals. Ecological models are tools rarely recommended in official technical documents on RA of chemicals, but are widely used by researchers to assess risks to populations, communities and ecosystems. Their great advantage is the relatively straightforward integration of the sensitivity of species to chemicals, the mode of action and fate in the environment of toxicants, life-history traits of the species of concern, and landscape features. To promote the usage of ecological models in regulatory risk assessment, this study tries to establish whether existing, published ecological modeling studies have addressed or have the potential to address the protection aims and requirements of the chemical directives of the EU. We reviewed 148 publications, and evaluated and analyzed them in a database according to defined criteria. Published models were also classified in terms of 5 areas where their application would be most useful for chemical RA. All potential application areas are well represented in the published literature. Most models were developed to estimate population-level responses on the basis of individual effects, followed by recovery process assessment, both in individuals and at the level of metapopulations. We provide case studies for each of the proposed areas of ecological model application. The lack of clarity about protection goals in legislative documents made it impossible to establish a direct link between modeling studies and protection goals. Because most of the models reviewed here were not developed for regulatory risk assessment, there is great potential and a variety of ecological models in the published literature. (c) 2010 SETAC.

  13. The development and application of dynamic operational risk assessment in oil/gas and chemical process industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang Xiaole; Mannan, M. Sam

    2010-01-01

    A methodology of dynamic operational risk assessment (DORA) is proposed for operational risk analysis in oil/gas and chemical industries. The methodology is introduced comprehensively starting from the conceptual framework design to mathematical modeling and to decision making based on cost-benefit analysis. The probabilistic modeling part of DORA integrates stochastic modeling and process dynamics modeling to evaluate operational risk. The stochastic system-state trajectory is modeled according to the abnormal behavior or failure of each component. For each of the possible system-state trajectories, a process dynamics evaluation is carried out to check whether process variables, e.g., level, flow rate, temperature, pressure, or chemical concentration, remain in their desirable regions. Component testing/inspection intervals and repair times are critical parameters to define the system-state configuration, and play an important role for evaluating the probability of operational failure. This methodology not only provides a framework to evaluate the dynamic operational risk in oil/gas and chemical industries, but also guides the process design and further optimization. To illustrate the probabilistic study, we present a case-study of a level control in an oil/gas separator at an offshore plant.

  14. Risk assessment and regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1981-01-01

    The approach to determining how safe is safe for the nuclear industry is to ensure that the risks are comparable with or less than those of other safe industries. There are some problems in implementing such an approach, because the effects of low levels of radiation are stochastic and assumptions are required in estimating the risks. A conservative approach has generally been adopted. Risk estimates across different activities are a useful indication of where society may be overspending or underspending to reduce risk, but the analysis has to take account of public preferences. Once risks have been estimated, limits may be chosen which the industry is expected to meet under normal and postulated accident conditions. Limits have been set so that nuclear risks do not exceed those in safe industries, and under normal conditions nuclear facilities operate at levels far below these specified limits

  15. A GIS approach to seismic risk assessment with an application to mining-related seismicity in Johannesburg, South Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liebenberg, Keagen; Smit, Ansie; Coetzee, Serena; Kijko, Andrzej

    2017-08-01

    The majority of seismic activity in South Africa is related to extensive mining operations, usually in close proximity to densely populated areas where a relatively weak seismic event could cause damage. Despite a significant decrease in mining operations in the Witwatersrand area, the number of seismic events appears to be increasing and is attributed to the acid mine drainage problem. The increased seismicity is raising concern amongst disaster management centres and in the insurance industry. A better understanding is required of the vulnerability and the size of the potential loss of people and infrastructure in densely populated Johannesburg and its surrounding areas. Results of a deterministic seismic risk, vulnerability, and loss assessment are presented by making use of a geographic information system (GIS). The results illustrate the benefits of using GIS and contribute to a better understanding of the risk, which can assist in improving disaster preparedness.

  16. Models for Pesticide Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA considers the toxicity of the pesticide as well as the amount of pesticide to which a person or the environments may be exposed in risk assessment. Scientists use mathematical models to predict pesticide concentrations in exposure assessment.

  17. Using risk assessment in periodontics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodman, Alan J

    2014-08-01

    Risk assessment has become a regular feature in both dental practice and society as a whole, and principles used to assess risk in society are similar to those used in a clinical setting. Although the concept of risk assessment as a prognostic indicator for periodontal disease incidence and activity is well established in the management of periodontitis, the use of risk assessment to manage the practical treatment of periodontitis and its sequelae appears to have less foundation. A simple system of initial risk assessment - building on the use of the Basic Periodontal Examination (BPE), clinical, medical and social factors - is described, linked to protocols for delivering care suited to general dental practice and stressing the role of long-term supportive care. The risks of not treating the patient are considered, together with the possible causes of failure, and the problems of successful treatment are illustrated by the practical management of post-treatment recession.

  18. Application of Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment to analyze the public health risk from poor drinking water quality in a low income area in Accra, Ghana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Machdar, E; van der Steen, N P; Raschid-Sally, L; Lens, P N L

    2013-04-01

    In Accra, Ghana, a majority of inhabitants lives in over-crowded areas with limited access to piped water supply, which is often also intermittent. This study assessed in a densely populated area the risk from microbial contamination of various sources of drinking water, by conducting a Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA) to estimate the risk to human health from microorganism exposure and dose-response relationships. Furthermore the cost-effectiveness in reducing the disease burden through targeted interventions was evaluated. Five risk pathways for drinking water were identified through a survey (110 families), namely household storage, private yard taps, communal taps, communal wells and water sachets. Samples from each source were analyzed for Escherichia coli and Ascaris contamination. Published ratios between E. coli and other pathogens were used for the QMRA and disease burden calculations. The major part of the burden of disease originated from E. coli O157:H7 (78%) and the least important contributor was Cryptosporidium (0.01%). Other pathogens contributed 16% (Campylobacter), 5% (Rotavirus) and 0.3% (Ascaris). The sum of the disease burden of these pathogens was 0.5 DALYs per person per year, which is much higher than the WHO reference level. The major contamination pathway was found to be household storage. Disinfection of water at household level was the most cost-effective intervention (Water supply network improvements were significantly less cost-effective. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Social aspects of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Otway, H.J.; Linnerooth, J.; Niehaus, F.

    1977-01-01

    Plans for technological development have often been met by demands for a closer examination of the associated benefits and risks and the consideration of social values in public planning and decision processes. A theoretical framework for inter-disciplinary risk assessment studies is presented to aid the balancing of technical data with social values in decision making. Methods for obtaining value measures are reviewed and an attitude-based method is developed in detail; this model allows identification of the relative importance of the technical, psychological and social factors which underlie attitudes and indicates which factors differentiate between social groups. Results of a pilot application to nuclear power are summarized. For these subjects, different attitudes between pro and con were primarily due to strongly differing beliefs about the benefits of nuclear power. Preliminary results are reported of an application of this model with a heterogeneous sample drawn from the general public. The cognitive limitations which affect rationality in intuitive decision making are summarized as background to introduce formal decision methodologies for the use of attitude data in public decision making

  20. Sensitivity analysis of the leaching rate parameter in assessing the environmental risk of phosphogypsum application in sanitary landfills

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marchesi, Marcos Vinicius A.; Hama, Naruhiko; Jacomino, Vanusa M.F.; Ladeira, Ana Claudia Q.; Cota, Stela D.S., E-mail: mvmarchesi@hotmail.com, E-mail: sdsc@cdtn.br, E-mail: vmfj@cdtn.br, E-mail: ana.ladeira@cdtn.br, E-mail: naruhikohama@hotmail.com [Centro de Desenvolvimento da Tecnologia Nuclear (CDTN/CNEN-MG), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil)

    2013-07-01

    The attack with sulfuric acid to phosphate rock produces both phosphoric acid, basic raw material in the manufacture of fertilizers, as a by-product called phosphogypsum. Phosphogypsum is composed mostly of calcium sulfate dihydrated, but may have high levels of impurities from the phosphate rock matrix as a series of natural radionuclides, and heavy metals (e.g. Cd, Zn) and metalloids (e.g. , As and Se). Although it is used for agricultural purposes and more recently in construction, in Brazil the generation rate estimated at six million tons per year is much higher than the amount spent on existing alternatives, and therefore mostly deposited in piles in the same place production, causing thereby the risk of contamination of soil and water resources of the region and providing risk to human health. Taken into account the need to find alternative arrangements for phosphogypsum and reduce the impact generated by its contaminants, this study aims to analyze the sensitivity of the leaching rate parameter in the environmental risk evaluation of the application of phosphogypsum in landfills through mathematical modeling, where it is evaluated the concentration of heavy metals and radionuclides in the layer of the soil under the clay layer of the landfill.

  1. Sensitivity analysis of the leaching rate parameter in assessing the environmental risk of phosphogypsum application in sanitary landfills

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marchesi, Marcos Vinicius A.; Hama, Naruhiko; Jacomino, Vanusa M.F.; Ladeira, Ana Claudia Q.; Cota, Stela D.S.

    2013-01-01

    The attack with sulfuric acid to phosphate rock produces both phosphoric acid, basic raw material in the manufacture of fertilizers, as a by-product called phosphogypsum. Phosphogypsum is composed mostly of calcium sulfate dihydrated, but may have high levels of impurities from the phosphate rock matrix as a series of natural radionuclides, and heavy metals (e.g. Cd, Zn) and metalloids (e.g. , As and Se). Although it is used for agricultural purposes and more recently in construction, in Brazil the generation rate estimated at six million tons per year is much higher than the amount spent on existing alternatives, and therefore mostly deposited in piles in the same place production, causing thereby the risk of contamination of soil and water resources of the region and providing risk to human health. Taken into account the need to find alternative arrangements for phosphogypsum and reduce the impact generated by its contaminants, this study aims to analyze the sensitivity of the leaching rate parameter in the environmental risk evaluation of the application of phosphogypsum in landfills through mathematical modeling, where it is evaluated the concentration of heavy metals and radionuclides in the layer of the soil under the clay layer of the landfill

  2. Nano-risk Science: application of toxicogenomics in an adverse outcome pathway framework for risk assessment of multi-walled carbon nanotubes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Labib, Sarah; Williams, Andrew; Yauk, Carole L; Nikota, Jake K; Wallin, Håkan; Vogel, Ulla; Halappanavar, Sabina

    2016-03-15

    A diverse class of engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) exhibiting a wide array of physical-chemical properties that are associated with toxicological effects in experimental animals is in commercial use. However, an integrated framework for human health risk assessment (HHRA) of ENMs has yet to be established. Rodent 2-year cancer bioassays, clinical chemistry, and histopathological endpoints are still considered the 'gold standard' for detecting substance-induced toxicity in animal models. However, the use of data derived from alternative toxicological tools, such as genome-wide expression profiling and in vitro high-throughput assays, are gaining acceptance by the regulatory community for hazard identification and for understanding the underlying mode-of-action. Here, we conducted a case study to evaluate the application of global gene expression data in deriving pathway-based points of departure (PODs) for multi-walled carbon nanotube (MWCNT)-induced lung fibrosis, a non-cancer endpoint of regulatory importance. Gene expression profiles from the lungs of mice exposed to three individual MWCNTs with different physical-chemical properties were used within the framework of an adverse outcome pathway (AOP) for lung fibrosis to identify key biological events linking MWCNT exposure to lung fibrosis. Significantly perturbed pathways were categorized along the key events described in the AOP. Benchmark doses (BMDs) were calculated for each perturbed pathway and were used to derive transcriptional BMDs for each MWCNT. Similar biological pathways were perturbed by the different MWCNT types across the doses and post-exposure time points studied. The pathway BMD values showed a time-dependent trend, with lower BMDs for pathways perturbed at the earlier post-exposure time points (24 h, 3d). The transcriptional BMDs were compared to the apical BMDs derived by the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) using alveolar septal thickness and fibrotic lesions

  3. [Methodological aspects of risk assessment of work related stress. Italian experience of R Karasek JCQ application, a multiphase approach].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrario, M M; Cesana, G

    2009-01-01

    Due to a new legislation, the assessment of work stress has become compulsory in Italy for all the enterprise. Work stress is become a leading health problem in work settings all over Europe. The two major approaches, the expert-based direct observations and the measurements of the perceived job strain, are briefly introduced emphasizing on strengthens and weaknesses. Among the methods to assess perceived job stress, the Karasek's Job Content Questionnaire has been extensively used in Italy, and the available results support its use because reliable and able to pick up major constrictiveness at work. In addition, because it is now possible to have reference levels, comparisons are possible for either public or private enterprises. Acknowledging the complexity of carrying out reliable assessment of work stress, a multiphase approach is emphasised: first an analysis or current data can be used to estimate the levels of turnover, down-sizing, outsourcing, extra hours, shift work, sickness absenteeism, changes of job titles, work accidents and work-related diseases. At a second step, on groups of workers selected because recognised at risk at the first phase and on control groups, the JCQ can be used to assess workers stress perception. Finally, when constrain conditions emerge,further investigations are required, including: intervention of experts in work organisation analysis, clinical psychological examinations of selected workers, to separate between work-related and personal psychological problems and health consequences.

  4. Assessment Applications of Ontologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, Gregory K. W. K.; Niemi, David; Bewley, William L.

    This paper discusses the use of ontologies and their applications to assessment. An ontology provides a shared and common understanding of a domain that can be communicated among people and computational systems. The ontology captures one or more experts' conceptual representation of a domain expressed in terms of concepts and the relationships…

  5. Applications in environmental risk assessment of leucocyte apoptosis, necrosis and respiratory burst analysis on the European bullhead, Cottus sp

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bado-Nilles, Anne; Jolly, Sabrina; Porcher, Jean-Marc; Palluel, Olivier; Geffard, Alain

    2014-01-01

    The use of a biochemical multi-biomarker approach proved insufficient to obtain clear information about ecosystem health. The fish immune system is considered as an attractive non-specific marker for environmental biomonitoring which has direct implications in individual fitness and population growth. Thus, the present work proposes the use of fish immunomarkers together with more common biochemical biomarkers in sampling conditions optimized to reduce biomarker variability and increase parameter robustness. European bullheads (Cottus sp.) from 11 stations in the Artois-Picardie watershed (France) were sampled. In the multiple discriminant analysis, the sites were highly correlated with apoptosis, respiratory burst, GST and EROD activities. Moreover, the use together of biochemical and immune markers increased the percentage of fish correctly classed at each site and enhanced site separation. This study argues in favor of the utilization of apoptosis, necrosis and respiratory burst for the determination of environmental risk assessment in addition to the set of biochemical biomarkers commonly used in fish. -- Highlights: • Optimization of biomarker variability and parameters robustness for biomonitoring. • Adding of fish immunomarkers together with more current biochemical biomarkers. • Use of immune system allows a better evaluation of fish health. • We argue for the deployment of immunomarkers in freshwater monitoring programs. -- Attractive use of freshwater fish leucocyte non-specific immune function in environmental risk assessment according to international recommendations

  6. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: ETHYLENE OXIDE ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

  7. Risk assessment - The future trend

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marks, G.A.

    1991-01-01

    Many organizations today are faced with cleaning a site or facility, selecting appropriate remedial alternatives, or explaining the potential effects on human health and the environment caused by the releases of toxic compounds into the air, soil, and water, The use of risk assessment (RA) as a management tool is increasing because it offers an integrated approach to the analysis of toxicological, geological, physio-chemical, meteorological, statistical, and biological parameters that must be evaluated in the assessment of potential impacts to human health. The regulatory atmosphere in the 1990s is leaning toward the adoption of further laws requiring the completion of the RA process. Any industry involved in submitting permit applications to Air Quality Management Districts or complying with California's Proposition 65 and AB 2588 will be required to prepare RAs. Several guidance documents are available that support the RA process including the California Site Mitigation Decision Tree Manual published by the State Department of Health Services (DHS), which bases its approach on developing cleanup objectives (Applied Action Levels) on RA. This presentation focuses on the applications RA can have to the petroleum industry and the kinds of data that each case should develop to make maximum use of the RA process

  8. Risk assessment in support of plant health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jeger, Michael; Schans, Jan; Lövei, Gabor L.

    2012-01-01

    environmental risk assessment and the evaluation of risk reducing options. Quantitative approaches have become increasingly important during this time. The Panel has developed such methods in climatic mapping (in association with the Joint Research Councils), application of spatial spread models, re......With the establishment of the Plant Health Panel in 2006, EFSA became the body responsible for risk assessment in the plant health area for the European Union (EU). Since then more than 70 outputs have been produced dealing with the full range of organisms harmful to plant health across all crop...... types and plants in the environment. There has been an increasing trend towards producing scientific opinions which are full pest risk assessments for the whole EU territory. In its work, and as a contribution to the wider development of risk assessment methodology, the Panel has developed a series...

  9. Engineering aspects of probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    vonHerrmann, J.L.; Wood, P.J.

    1984-01-01

    Over the last decade, the use of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in the nuclear industry has expanded significantly. In these analyses the probabilities of experiencing certain undesired events (for example, a plant accident which results in damage to the nuclear fuel) are estimated and the consequences of these events are evaluated in terms of some common measure. These probabilities and consequences are then combined to form a representation of the risk associated with the plant studied. In the relatively short history of probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear power plants, the primary motivation for these studies has been the quantitative assessment of public risk associated with a single plant or group of plants. Accordingly, the primary product of most PRAs performed to date has been a 'risk curve' in which the probability (or expected frequency) of exceeding a certain consequence level is plotted against that consequence. The most common goal of these assessments has been to demonstrate the 'acceptability' of the calculated risk by comparison of the resultant risk curve to risk curves associated with other plants or with other societal risks. Presented here are brief descriptions of some alternate applications of PRAs, a discussion of how these other applications compare or contrast with the currently popular uses of PRA, and a discussion of the relative benefits of each

  10. A Guide to the Application of Probability Risk Assessment Methodology and Hazard Risk Frequency Criteria as a Hazard Control for the Use of the Mobile Servicing System on the International Space Station

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'silva, Oneil; Kerrison, Roger

    2013-09-01

    A key feature for the increased utilization of space robotics is to automate Extra-Vehicular manned space activities and thus significantly reduce the potential for catastrophic hazards while simultaneously minimizing the overall costs associated with manned space. The principal scope of the paper is to evaluate the use of industry standard accepted Probability risk/safety assessment (PRA/PSA) methodologies and Hazard Risk frequency Criteria as a hazard control. This paper illustrates the applicability of combining the selected Probability risk assessment methodology and hazard risk frequency criteria, in order to apply the necessary safety controls that allow for the increased use of the Mobile Servicing system (MSS) robotic system on the International Space Station. This document will consider factors such as component failure rate reliability, software reliability, and periods of operation and dormancy, fault tree analyses and their effects on the probability risk assessments. The paper concludes with suggestions for the incorporation of existing industry Risk/Safety plans to create an applicable safety process for future activities/programs

  11. On risk assessment of energy production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kunii, Katsuhiko

    2005-07-01

    Today we cannot ignore the risk of health and/or environment by energy production such as power generation since the risk has been made large enough. In this report an information survey has been done in order to know the outline and points of risk assessment. Based on the information of reports and literature about risk assessment, have been surveyed mainly the external cost assessment of power generation (in which quantification of health and/or environment risk has been done), in addition, risks of disasters, accidents, investments, finance etc. and impacts of those risks on social activities. The remarks obtained by the survey are as follows: 1) Some of external cost assessment of power generation show different results even if the assessment conditions of technology, site, etc. are mostly the same. It is necessary to remark on the information such as basic data, model, background, application limit of assessment considering the reliability. 2) Especially it is considered that the reliability of risk assessment is not enough at present because of the lack of basic data. (author)

  12. Ecological risk assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Suter, Glenn W; Barnthouse, L. W. (Lawrence W)

    2007-01-01

    ..., and other environmental management issues. The book has been completely rewritten and its scope has been broadened to include discussions of the application of ERA to stressors other than chemical contaminants...

  13. Potential application of quantitative microbiological risk assessment techniques to an aseptic-UHT process in the food industry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pujol, Laure; Albert, Isabelle; Johnson, Nicholas Brian; Membré, Jeanne-Marie

    2013-04-01

    Aseptic ultra-high-temperature (UHT)-type processed food products (e.g., milk or soup) are ready to eat products which are consumed extensively globally due to a combination of their comparative high quality and long shelf life, with no cold chain or other preservation requirements. Due to the inherent microbial vulnerability of aseptic-UHT product formulations, the safety and stability-related performance objectives (POs) required at the end of the manufacturing process are the most demanding found in the food industry. The key determinants to achieving sterility, and which also differentiates aseptic-UHT from in-pack sterilised products, are the challenges associated with the processes of aseptic filling and sealing. This is a complex process that has traditionally been run using deterministic or empirical process settings. Quantifying the risk of microbial contamination and recontamination along the aseptic-UHT process, using the scientifically based process quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA), offers the possibility to improve on the currently tolerable sterility failure rate (i.e., 1 defect per 10,000 units). In addition, benefits of applying QMRA are (i) to implement process settings in a transparent and scientific manner; (ii) to develop a uniform common structure whatever the production line, leading to a harmonisation of these process settings, and; (iii) to bring elements of a cost-benefit analysis of the management measures. The objective of this article is to explore how QMRA techniques and risk management metrics may be applied to aseptic-UHT-type processed food products. In particular, the aseptic-UHT process should benefit from a number of novel mathematical and statistical concepts that have been developed in the field of QMRA. Probabilistic techniques such as Monte Carlo simulation, Bayesian inference and sensitivity analysis, should help in assessing the compliance with safety and stability-related POs set at the end of the manufacturing

  14. Risk indices in comparative risk assessment studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, P.

    1984-01-01

    More than a decade ago the development of comparative risk assessment studies aroused overwhelming interest. There was no doubt that data on the health and safety aspects of energy systems would greatly benefit, or even end, the debate on nuclear energy. Although such attempts are still strongly supported, the rose-coloured expectations of the early days have faded. The high uncertainties, and the contradictory aspect, of the first results might explain this evolution. The loose connection between the range of computed risk indices and the questions on which the debate was focused is another reason for this decline in interest. Important research work is being carried out aiming at reducing the different kinds of uncertainties. Rather than the uncertainties, the paper considers the meaning of available risk indices and proposes more significant indices with respect to the goals of risk assessment. First, the indices which are of frequent use in comparative studies are listed. The stress is put on a French comparative study from which most examples are drawn. Secondly, the increase in magnitude of the indices and the decrease in the attributability of the risk to a given system is shown to be a consequence of the trend towards more comprehensive analyses. Thirdly, the ambiguity of such indices as the collective occupational risk is underlined, and a possible solution is suggested. Whenever risk assessments are related to pragmatic decision making problems it is possible to find satisfactory risk indices. The development of cost-effectiveness analyses and the proposals for quantitative safety goals clearly demonstrate this point. In the field of comparison of social impacts some proposals are made, but there remain some gaps still to be filled. (author)

  15. Implications of probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cullingford, M.C.; Shah, S.M.; Gittus, J.H.

    1987-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is an analytical process that quantifies the likelihoods, consequences and associated uncertainties of the potential outcomes of postulated events. Starting with planned or normal operation, probabilistic risk assessment covers a wide range of potential accidents and considers the whole plant and the interactions of systems and human actions. Probabilistic risk assessment can be applied in safety decisions in design, licensing and operation of industrial facilities, particularly nuclear power plants. The proceedings include a review of PRA procedures, methods and technical issues in treating uncertainties, operating and licensing issues and future trends. Risk assessment for specific reactor types or components and specific risks (eg aircraft crashing onto a reactor) are used to illustrate the points raised. All 52 articles are indexed separately. (U.K.)

  16. Application of IEUBK model in lead risk assessment of children aged 61–84 months old in central China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Yanyan [MOE Key Lab of Environment and Health, Institute of Environmental Medicine, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science & Technology, Wuhan, Hubei (China); Hu, Jia [Suzhou Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Suzhou, Jiangsu (China); Wu, Wei [MOE Key Lab of Environment and Health, Institute of Environmental Medicine, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science & Technology, Wuhan, Hubei (China); Liu, Shuyun [Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science & Technology, Wuhan, Hubei (China); Li, Mei [Hanyang Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Wuhan, Hubei (China); Yao, Na; Chen, Jianwei [MOE Key Lab of Environment and Health, Institute of Environmental Medicine, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science & Technology, Wuhan, Hubei (China); Ye, Linxiang [Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science & Technology, Wuhan, Hubei (China); Wang, Qi, E-mail: lwq95@126.com [MOE Key Lab of Environment and Health, Institute of Environmental Medicine, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science & Technology, Wuhan, Hubei (China); Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science & Technology, Wuhan, Hubei (China); Zhou, Yikai, E-mail: zhouyk@mails.tjmu.edu.cn [MOE Key Lab of Environment and Health, Institute of Environmental Medicine, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science & Technology, Wuhan, Hubei (China)

    2016-01-15

    Few studies have focused on the accuracy of using the Integrated Exposure Uptake Biokinetic (IEUBK) model in Chinese children with site- and age-specific exposure data. This study aimed to validate the accuracy and sensitivity of the IEUBK model in lead risk assessment of Chinese children aged 61–84 months old. A total of 760 children were enrolled from two respective counties in Central China by using random cluster sampling method. Blood lead levels (BLLs) of all subjects were determined using graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry, as well as that in the environmental media, such as air, drinking water, soil, dust and food. Age- and site-specific time-activity patterns and water consumption were evaluated by using questionnaires for children. Exposure parameters including outdoor and indoor activity time, ventilation rate and water consumption in this study were different from the default values of the IEUBK model. Statistical analysis revealed no significant differences between the predicted and observed BLLs. Diet and soil/dust lead intake contributed approximately 83.39% (57.40%–93.84% range) and 15.18% (3.25%–41.60% range) of total lead intake, respectively. These findings showed that the IEUBK model is suitable for lead risk assessment of Chinese children aged 61–84 months old and diet acts as an important lead source. - Highlights: • The first time to fit and discuss the IEUBK model in China based on comprehensive local children exposure parameters. • Two different exposure scenarios to apply the IEUBK model in different conditions. • The first time to report the ventilation rate in Chinese children aged 61 to 84 months. • Highlight the role of dietary to lead intake for Chinese children.

  17. Application of IEUBK model in lead risk assessment of children aged 61–84 months old in central China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Yanyan; Hu, Jia; Wu, Wei; Liu, Shuyun; Li, Mei; Yao, Na; Chen, Jianwei; Ye, Linxiang; Wang, Qi; Zhou, Yikai

    2016-01-01

    Few studies have focused on the accuracy of using the Integrated Exposure Uptake Biokinetic (IEUBK) model in Chinese children with site- and age-specific exposure data. This study aimed to validate the accuracy and sensitivity of the IEUBK model in lead risk assessment of Chinese children aged 61–84 months old. A total of 760 children were enrolled from two respective counties in Central China by using random cluster sampling method. Blood lead levels (BLLs) of all subjects were determined using graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry, as well as that in the environmental media, such as air, drinking water, soil, dust and food. Age- and site-specific time-activity patterns and water consumption were evaluated by using questionnaires for children. Exposure parameters including outdoor and indoor activity time, ventilation rate and water consumption in this study were different from the default values of the IEUBK model. Statistical analysis revealed no significant differences between the predicted and observed BLLs. Diet and soil/dust lead intake contributed approximately 83.39% (57.40%–93.84% range) and 15.18% (3.25%–41.60% range) of total lead intake, respectively. These findings showed that the IEUBK model is suitable for lead risk assessment of Chinese children aged 61–84 months old and diet acts as an important lead source. - Highlights: • The first time to fit and discuss the IEUBK model in China based on comprehensive local children exposure parameters. • Two different exposure scenarios to apply the IEUBK model in different conditions. • The first time to report the ventilation rate in Chinese children aged 61 to 84 months. • Highlight the role of dietary to lead intake for Chinese children.

  18. Tools for Microbiological risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bassett, john; Nauta, Maarten; Lindqvist, Roland

    can increase the understanding of microbiological risks in foods. It is timely to inform food safety professionals about the availability and utility of MRA tools. Therefore, the focus of this report is to aid the food safety manager by providing a concise summary of the tools available for the MRA......Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) has emerged as a comprehensive and systematic approach for addressing the risk of pathogens in specific foods and/or processes. At government level, MRA is increasingly recognised as a structured and objective approach to understand the level of risk in a given...... food/pathogen scenario. Tools developed so far support qualitative and quantitative assessments of the risk that a food pathogen poses to a particular population. Risk can be expressed as absolute numbers or as relative (ranked) risks. The food industry is beginning to appreciate that the tools for MRA...

  19. Integrated climate change risk assessment:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Halsnæs, Kirsten

    2017-01-01

    Risk assessments of flooding in urban areas during extreme precipitation for use in, for example, decision-making regarding climate adaptation, are surrounded by great uncertainties stemming from climate model projections, methods of downscaling and the assumptions of socioeconomic impact models...... to address the complex linkages between the different kinds of data required in assessing climate adaptation. It emphasizes that the availability of spatially explicit data can reduce the overall uncertainty of the risk assessment and assist in identifying key vulnerable assets. The usefulness...... of such a framework is demonstrated by means of a risk assessment of flooding from extreme precipitation for the city of Odense, Denmark. A sensitivity analysis shows how the presence of particularly important assets, such as cultural and historical heritage, may be addressed in assessing such risks. The output...

  20. Seismic risk assessment of a BWR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wells, J.E.; Bernreuter, D.L.; Chen, J.C.; Lappa, D.A.; Chuang, T.Y.; Murray, R.C.; Johnson, J.J.

    1987-01-01

    The simplified seismic risk methodology developed in the USNRC Seismic Safety Margins Research Program (SSMRP) was demonstrated by its application to the Zion nuclear power plant (PWR). The simplified seismic risk methodology was developed to reduce the costs associated with a seismic risk analysis while providing adequate results. A detailed model of Zion, including systems analysis models (initiating events, event trees, and fault trees), SSI and structure models, and piping models, was developed and used in assessing the seismic risk of the Zion nuclear power plant (FSAR). The simplified seismic risk methodology was applied to the LaSalle County Station nuclear power plant, a BWR; to further demonstrate its applicability, and if possible, to provide a basis for comparing the seismic risk from PWRs and BWRs. (orig./HP)

  1. Carcinogen risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hazelwoold, R.N.

    1987-01-01

    This article describes the methods by which risk factors for carcinogenic hazards are determined and the limitations inherent in the process. From statistical and epidemiological studies, the major identifiable factors related to cancer in the United States were determined to be cigarette smoking, diet, reproductive and sexual behavior, infections, ultraviolet and ionizing radiation, and alcohol consumption. The incidence of lung cancer due to air pollutants was estimated to be less than 2%. Research needs were discussed

  2. Probabilistic risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shinaishin, M.A.

    1988-06-01

    The objective of this work is to provide the tools necessary for clear identification of: the purpose of a Probabilistic Risk Study, the bounds and depth of the study, the proper modeling techniques to be used, the failure modes contributing to the analysis, the classical and baysian approaches for manipulating data necessary for quantification, ways for treating uncertainties, and available computer codes that may be used in performing such probabilistic analysis. In addition, it provides the means for measuring the importance of a safety feature to maintaining a level of risk at a Nuclear Power Plant and the worth of optimizing a safety system in risk reduction. In applying these techniques so that they accommodate our national resources and needs it was felt that emphasis should be put on the system reliability analysis level of PRA. Objectives of such studies could include: comparing systems' designs of the various vendors in the bedding stage, and performing grid reliability and human performance analysis using national specific data. (author)

  3. Probabilistic risk assessment methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shinaishin, M A

    1988-06-15

    The objective of this work is to provide the tools necessary for clear identification of: the purpose of a Probabilistic Risk Study, the bounds and depth of the study, the proper modeling techniques to be used, the failure modes contributing to the analysis, the classical and baysian approaches for manipulating data necessary for quantification, ways for treating uncertainties, and available computer codes that may be used in performing such probabilistic analysis. In addition, it provides the means for measuring the importance of a safety feature to maintaining a level of risk at a Nuclear Power Plant and the worth of optimizing a safety system in risk reduction. In applying these techniques so that they accommodate our national resources and needs it was felt that emphasis should be put on the system reliability analysis level of PRA. Objectives of such studies could include: comparing systems' designs of the various vendors in the bedding stage, and performing grid reliability and human performance analysis using national specific data. (author)

  4. Disease state fingerprint for fall risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Similä, Heidi; Immonen, Milla

    2014-01-01

    Fall prevention is an important and complex multifactorial challenge, since one third of people over 65 years old fall at least once every year. A novel application of Disease State Fingerprint (DSF) algorithm is presented for holistic visualization of fall risk factors and identifying persons with falls history or decreased level of physical functioning based on fall risk assessment data. The algorithm is tested with data from 42 older adults, that went through a comprehensive fall risk assessment. Within the study population the Activities-specific Balance Confidence (ABC) scale score, Berg Balance Scale (BBS) score and the number of drugs in use were the three most relevant variables, that differed between the fallers and non-fallers. This study showed that the DSF visualization is beneficial in inspection of an individual's significant fall risk factors, since people have problems in different areas and one single assessment scale is not enough to expose all the people at risk.

  5. Probabilistic risk assessment, Volume I

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1982-01-01

    This book contains 158 papers presented at the International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Risk Assessment held by the American Nuclear Society (ANS) and the European Nuclear Society (ENS) in Port Chester, New York in 1981. The meeting was second in a series of three. The main focus of the meeting was on the safety of light water reactors. The papers discuss safety goals and risk assessment. Quantitative safety goals, risk assessment in non-nuclear technologies, and operational experience and data base are also covered. Included is an address by Dr. Chauncey Starr

  6. Framework for ecological risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodier, D.; Norton, S.

    1992-02-01

    Increased interest in ecological issues such as global climate change, habitat loss, acid deposition, reduced biological diversity, and the ecological impacts of pesticides and toxic chemicals prompts this U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) report, A Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment ('Framework Report'). The report describes basic elements, or a framework, for evaluating scientific information on the adverse effects of physical and chemical stressors on the environment. The framework offers starting principles and a simple structure as guidance for current ecological risk assessments and as a foundation for future EPA proposals for risk assessment guidelines

  7. Derivation of Ecological Protective Concentration using the Probabilistic Ecological Risk Assessment applicable for Korean Water Environment: (I) Cadmium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nam, Sun-Hwa; Lee, Woo-Mi; An, Youn-Joo

    2012-06-01

    Probabilistic ecological risk assessment (PERA) for deriving ecological protective concentration (EPC) was previously suggested in USA, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, and Netherland. This study suggested the EPC of cadmium (Cd) based on the PERA to be suitable to Korean aquatic ecosystem. First, we collected reliable ecotoxicity data from reliable data without restriction and reliable data with restrictions. Next, we sorted the ecotoxicity data based on the site-specific locations, exposure duration, and water hardness. To correct toxicity by the water hardness, EU's hardness corrected algorithm was used with slope factor 0.89 and a benchmark of water hardness 100. EPC was calculated according to statistical extrapolation method (SEM), statistical extrapolation methodAcute to chronic ratio (SEMACR), and assessment factor method (AFM). As a result, aquatic toxicity data of Cd were collected from 43 acute toxicity data (4 Actinopterygill, 29 Branchiopoda, 1 Polychaeta, 2 Bryozoa, 6 Chlorophyceae, 1 Chanophyceae) and 40 chronic toxicity data (2 Actinopterygill, 23 Branchiopoda, 9 Chlorophyceae, 6 Macrophytes). Because toxicity data of Cd belongs to 4 classes in taxonomical classification, acute and chronic EPC (11.07 μg/l and 0.034 μg/l, respectively) was calculated according to SEM technique. These values were included in the range of international EPCs. This study would be useful to establish the ecological standard for the protection of aquatic ecosystem in Korea.

  8. Assessing plant protection practices using pressure indicator and toxicity risk indicators: analysis of therelationship between these indicators for improved risk management, application in viticulture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oussama, Mghirbi; Kamel, Ellefi; Philippe, Le Grusse; Elisabeth, Mandart; Jacques, Fabre; Habiba, Ayadi; Jean-Paul, Bord

    2015-06-01

    The excessive use of plant protection products (PPPs) has given rise to issues of public and environmental health because of their toxicity. Reducing the use of toxic PPPs and replacing them with products that are less toxic for human health and the environment have become socially, environmentally and economically indispensable. In this article, we assess the plant protection practices of a small group of winegrowers practicing "integrated agriculture" in the south of France, in order to measure the benefit of using toxicity risk indicators as a decision-support tool for different players in land management. An analysis of plant protection practices using indicators of the risk to operator health and the environment (IRSA, IRTE), together with a frequency-of-treatment indicator (TFI), enabled us to (i) show the variability of these indicators depending on the production system and farmers' pesticide use strategies and (ii) calculate correlations between these indicators. This analysis of plant protection practices at different scales (farm, field), carried out in collaboration with the growers, enabled us to perform an initial validation of decision-support tools for determining risk management strategies regarding the use of pesticides.

  9. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  10. Data-Driven Risk Assessment from Small Scale Epidemics: Estimation and Model Choice for Spatio-Temporal Data with Application to a Classical Swine Fever Outbreak.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gamado, Kokouvi; Marion, Glenn; Porphyre, Thibaud

    2017-01-01

    Livestock epidemics have the potential to give rise to significant economic, welfare, and social costs. Incursions of emerging and re-emerging pathogens may lead to small and repeated outbreaks. Analysis of the resulting data is statistically challenging but can inform disease preparedness reducing potential future losses. We present a framework for spatial risk assessment of disease incursions based on data from small localized historic outbreaks. We focus on between-farm spread of livestock pathogens and illustrate our methods by application to data on the small outbreak of Classical Swine Fever (CSF) that occurred in 2000 in East Anglia, UK. We apply models based on continuous time semi-Markov processes, using data-augmentation Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques within a Bayesian framework to infer disease dynamics and detection from incompletely observed outbreaks. The spatial transmission kernel describing pathogen spread between farms, and the distribution of times between infection and detection, is estimated alongside unobserved exposure times. Our results demonstrate inference is reliable even for relatively small outbreaks when the data-generating model is known. However, associated risk assessments depend strongly on the form of the fitted transmission kernel. Therefore, for real applications, methods are needed to select the most appropriate model in light of the data. We assess standard Deviance Information Criteria (DIC) model selection tools and recently introduced latent residual methods of model assessment, in selecting the functional form of the spatial transmission kernel. These methods are applied to the CSF data, and tested in simulated scenarios which represent field data, but assume the data generation mechanism is known. Analysis of simulated scenarios shows that latent residual methods enable reliable selection of the transmission kernel even for small outbreaks whereas the DIC is less reliable. Moreover, compared with DIC, model choice

  11. A probabilistic approach to assess antibiotic resistance development risks in environmental compartments and its application to an intensive aquaculture production scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rico, Andreu; Jacobs, Rianne; Van den Brink, Paul J; Tello, Alfredo

    2017-12-01

    Estimating antibiotic pollution and antibiotic resistance development risks in environmental compartments is important to design management strategies that advance our stewardship of antibiotics. In this study we propose a modelling approach to estimate the risk of antibiotic resistance development in environmental compartments and demonstrate its application in aquaculture production systems. We modelled exposure concentrations for 12 antibiotics used in Vietnamese Pangasius catfish production using the ERA-AQUA model. Minimum selective concentration (MSC) distributions that characterize the selective pressure of antibiotics on bacterial communities were derived from the European Committee on Antimicrobial Susceptibility Testing (EUCAST) Minimum Inhibitory Concentration dataset. The antibiotic resistance development risk (RDR) for each antibiotic was calculated as the probability that the antibiotic exposure distribution exceeds the MSC distribution representing the bacterial community. RDRs in pond sediments were nearly 100% for all antibiotics. Median RDR values in pond water were high for the majority of the antibiotics, with rifampicin, levofloxacin and ampicillin having highest values. In the effluent mixing area, RDRs were low for most antibiotics, with the exception of amoxicillin, ampicillin and trimethoprim, which presented moderate risks, and rifampicin and levofloxacin, which presented high risks. The RDR provides an efficient means to benchmark multiple antibiotics and treatment regimes in the initial phase of a risk assessment with regards to their potential to develop resistance in different environmental compartments, and can be used to derive resistance threshold concentrations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Framework for Shared Drinking Water Risk Assessment.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lowry, Thomas Stephen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Tidwell, Vincent C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Peplinski, William John [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Mitchell, Roger [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Binning, David [AEM Corp., Herndon, VA (United States); Meszaros, Jenny [AEM Corp., Herndon, VA (United States)

    2017-01-01

    Central to protecting our nation's critical infrastructure is the development of methodologies for prioritizing action and supporting resource allocation decisions associated with risk-reduction initiatives. Toward this need a web-based risk assessment framework that promotes the anonymous sharing of results among water utilities is demonstrated. Anonymous sharing of results offers a number of potential advantages such as assistance in recognizing and correcting bias, identification of 'unknown, unknowns', self-assessment and benchmarking for the local utility, treatment of shared assets and/or threats across multiple utilities, and prioritization of actions beyond the scale of a single utility. The constructed framework was demonstrated for three water utilities. Demonstration results were then compared to risk assessment results developed using a different risk assessment application by a different set of analysts.

  13. Risk assessment: An employer's perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, K.C.

    1992-01-01

    There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime

  14. Risk assessment: An employer's perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williams, K C [Exxon International (United States)

    1992-07-01

    There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime.

  15. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines. PMID:26301217

  16. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems - examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  17. Building better environmental risk assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raymond eLayton

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERA for genetically modified (GM crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data, and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  18. Assessment and perception of risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daglish, J

    1981-01-01

    A recent two-day meeting was called by the Royal Society to discuss all types of risks, but symptomatic of the concerns of most of those present, the discussion centred mainly on the risks inherent in energy production and use. Among the subjects considered were public perception of differing risks, and how these are ranked, and risks versus benefits. Quotations from and summaries of many of the papers presented show that it was generally felt that scientists must be very careful in the way that they use numerical assessments of risk and that they should pay more attention than they have to social and political factors.

  19. Potential application of ecological models in the European environmental risk assessment of chemicals. I. Review of protection goals in EU directives and regulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hommen, Udo; Baveco, J M Hans; Galic, Nika; van den Brink, Paul J

    2010-07-01

    Several European directives and regulations address the environmental risk assessment of chemicals. We used the protection of freshwater ecosystems against plant protection products, biocidal products, human and veterinary pharmaceuticals, and other chemicals and priority substances under the Water Framework Directive as examples to explore the potential of ecological effect models for a refined risk assessment. Our analysis of the directives, regulations, and related guidance documents lead us to distinguish the following 5 areas for the application of ecological models in chemical risk assessment: 1) Extrapolation of organism-level effects to the population level: The protection goals are formulated in general terms, e.g., avoiding "unacceptable effects" or "adverse impact" on the environment or the "viability of exposed species." In contrast, most of the standard ecotoxicological tests provide data only on organism-level endpoints and are thus not directly linked to the protection goals which focus on populations and communities. 2) Extrapolation of effects between different exposure profiles: Especially for plant protection products, exposure profiles can be very variable and impossible to cover in toxicological tests. 3) Extrapolation of recovery processes: As a consequence of the often short-term exposures to plant protection products, the risk assessment is based on the community recovery principle. On the other hand, assessments under the other directives assume a more or less constant exposure and are based on the ecosystem threshold principle. 4) Analysis and prediction of indirect effects: Because effects on 1 or a few taxa might have consequences on other taxa that are not directly affected by the chemical, such indirect effects on communities have to be considered. 5) Prediction of bioaccumulation within food chains: All directives take the possibility of bioaccumulation, and thus secondary poisoning within the food chain, into account. (c) 2010 SETAC.

  20. Enhancing the ecological risk assessment process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dale, Virginia H; Biddinger, Gregory R; Newman, Michael C; Oris, James T; Suter, Glenn W; Thompson, Timothy; Armitage, Thomas M; Meyer, Judith L; Allen-King, Richelle M; Burton, G Allen; Chapman, Peter M; Conquest, Loveday L; Fernandez, Ivan J; Landis, Wayne G; Master, Lawrence L; Mitsch, William J; Mueller, Thomas C; Rabeni, Charles F; Rodewald, Amanda D; Sanders, James G; van Heerden, Ivor L

    2008-07-01

    The Ecological Processes and Effects Committee of the US Environmental Protection Agency Science Advisory Board conducted a self-initiated study and convened a public workshop to characterize the state of the ecological risk assessment (ERA), with a view toward advancing the science and application of the process. That survey and analysis of ERA in decision making shows that such assessments have been most effective when clear management goals were included in the problem formulation; translated into information needs; and developed in collaboration with decision makers, assessors, scientists, and stakeholders. This process is best facilitated when risk managers, risk assessors, and stakeholders are engaged in an ongoing dialogue about problem formulation. Identification and acknowledgment of uncertainties that have the potential to profoundly affect the results and outcome of risk assessments also improves assessment effectiveness. Thus we suggest 1) through peer review of ERAs be conducted at the problem formulation stage and 2) the predictive power of risk-based decision making be expanded to reduce uncertainties through analytical and methodological approaches like life cycle analysis. Risk assessment and monitoring programs need better integration to reduce uncertainty and to evaluate risk management decision outcomes. Postdecision audit programs should be initiated to evaluate the environmental outcomes of risk-based decisions. In addition, a process should be developed to demonstrate how monitoring data can be used to reduce uncertainties. Ecological risk assessments should include the effects of chemical and nonchemical stressors at multiple levels of biological organization and spatial scale, and the extent and resolution of the pertinent scales and levels of organization should be explicitly considered during problem formulation. An approach to interpreting lines of evidence and weight of evidence is critically needed for complex assessments, and it would

  1. Modern biogeochemistry environmental risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Bashkin, Vladimir N

    2006-01-01

    Most books deal mainly with various technical aspects of ERA description and calculationsAims at generalizing the modern ideas of both biogeochemical and environmental risk assessment during recent yearsAims at supplementing the existing books by providing a modern understanding of mechanisms that are responsible for the ecological risk for human beings and ecosystem

  2. Risk assessment future cash flows

    OpenAIRE

    Chachina H. G.

    2012-01-01

    This article is about risk assessment in planning future cash flows. Discount rate in DCF-model must include four factors: risk cash flow, inflation, value of investments, turnover assets. This has an influence net present value cash flow and make his incomparable.

  3. Test reactor risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jennings, R.H.; Rawlins, J.K.; Stewart, M.E.

    1976-04-01

    A methodology has been developed for the identification of accident initiating events and the fault modeling of systems, including common mode identification, as these methods are applied in overall test reactor risk assessment. The methods are exemplified by a determination of risks to a loss of primary coolant flow in the Engineering Test Reactor

  4. Cloud computing assessing the risks

    CERN Document Server

    Carstensen, Jared; Golden, Bernard

    2012-01-01

    Cloud Computing: Assessing the risks answers these questions and many more. Using jargon-free language and relevant examples, analogies and diagrams, it is an up-to-date, clear and comprehensive guide the security, governance, risk, and compliance elements of Cloud Computing.

  5. Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses remains a complex challenge. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk asses...

  6. Evaluation of thermal risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loos, J.J.; Perry, E.S.

    1993-01-01

    Risk assessment was done in 1983 to estimate the ecological hazard of increasing the generating load and thermal output of an electric generating station. Subsequently, long-term monitoring in the vicinity of the station allowed verification of the predictions made in the risk assessment. This presentation will review the efficacy of early risk assessment methods in producing useful predictions from a resource management point of view. In 1984, the Chalk Point Generating facility of the Potomac Electric Power Company increased it's median generating load by 100%. Prior to this operational change, the Academy of Natural Sciences of Philadelphia synthesized site specific data, model predictions, and results from literature to assess the risk of additional waste heat to the Patuxent River subestuary of Chesapeake Bay. Risk was expressed as the number of days per year that various species of fish and the blue crab would be expected to avoid the discharge vicinity. Accuracy of these predictions is assessed by comparing observed fish and crab distributions and their observed frequencies of avoidance to those predicted. It is concluded that the predictions of this early risk assessment were sufficiently accurate to produce a reliable resource management decision

  7. NASA Human System Risk Assessment Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francisco, D.; Romero, E.

    2016-01-01

    NASA utilizes an evidence based system to perform risk assessments for the human system for spaceflight missions. The center of this process is the multi-disciplinary Human System Risk Board (HSRB). The HSRB is chartered from the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) at NASA Headquarters. The HSRB reviews all human system risks via an established comprehensive risk and configuration management plan based on a project management approach. The HSRB facilitates the integration of human research (terrestrial and spaceflight), medical operations, occupational surveillance, systems engineering and many other disciplines in a comprehensive review of human system risks. The HSRB considers all factors that influence human risk. These factors include pre-mission considerations such as screening criteria, training, age, sex, and physiological condition. In mission factors such as available countermeasures, mission duration and location and post mission factors such as time to return to baseline (reconditioning), post mission health screening, and available treatments. All of the factors influence the total risk assessment for each human risk. The HSRB performed a comprehensive review of all potential inflight medical conditions and events and over the course of several reviews consolidated the number of human system risks to 30, where the greatest emphasis is placed for investing program dollars for risk mitigation. The HSRB considers all available evidence from human research and, medical operations and occupational surveillance in assessing the risks for appropriate mitigation and future work. All applicable DRMs (low earth orbit for 6 and 12 months, deep space for 30 days and 1 year, a lunar mission for 1 year, and a planetary mission for 3 years) are considered as human system risks are modified by the hazards associated with space flight such as microgravity, exposure to radiation, distance from the earth, isolation and a closed environment. Each risk has a summary

  8. Pathology and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1976-01-01

    Programs for providing basic data for use in evaluating the hazard to man from exposure to radiation and other energy-related pollutants are reviewed. A computer program was developed that takes the existing mortality and fertility data on a given population and applies dose-response coefficients and estimated increments of exposure to chemical or radioactive effluents and derives the excess deaths by age and sex for 5-year intervals. The program was used in an analysis of the health effects of airborne coal combustion effluents. Preliminary results are reported from a study of the influence of products of fossil fuel combustion on the spontaneous activity patterns and daily metabolic cycles of mice as a factor of age, environment, and genetic constitution. Preliminary results are reported from studies on the early and late effects of polycyclic hydrocarbons on the immune competence of mice. Studies to determine the risk to human populations from radionuclides released to the environment from nuclear energy facilities use relative toxicity and dose response data from laboratory animals of different body size and life span and comparisons of the effects of internal exposure with those of external exposure to fission neutrons or gamma sources

  9. Taking the Risk Out of Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-01-01

    The ability to understand risks and have the right strategies in place when risky events occur is essential in the workplace. More and more organizations are being confronted with concerns over how to measure their risks or what kind of risks they can take when certain events transpire that could have a negative impact. NASA is one organization that faces these challenges on a daily basis, as effective risk management is critical to the success of its missions especially the Space Shuttle missions. On July 29, 1996, former NASA Administrator Daniel Goldin charged NASA s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance with developing a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) tool to support decisions on the funding of Space Shuttle upgrades. When issuing the directive, Goldin said, "Since I came to NASA [in 1992], we've spent billions of dollars on Shuttle upgrades without knowing how much they improve safety. I want a tool to help base upgrade decisions on risk." Work on the PRA tool began immediately. The resulting prototype, the Quantitative Risk Assessment System (QRAS) Version 1.0, was jointly developed by NASA s Marshall Space Flight Center, its Office of Safety and Mission Assurance, and researchers at the University of Maryland. QRAS software automatically expands the reliability logic models of systems to evaluate the probability of highly detrimental outcomes occurring in complex systems that are subject to potential accident scenarios. Even in its earliest forms, QRAS was used to begin PRA modeling of the Space Shuttle. In parallel, the development of QRAS continued, with the goal of making it a world-class tool, one that was especially suited to NASA s unique needs. From the beginning, an important conceptual goal in the development of QRAS was for it to help bridge the gap between the professional risk analyst and the design engineer. In the past, only the professional risk analyst could perform, modify, use, and perhaps even adequately understand PRA. NASA wanted

  10. Avalanche risk assessment in Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komarov, Anton; Seliverstov, Yury; Sokratov, Sergey; Glazovskaya, Tatiana; Turchaniniva, Alla

    2017-04-01

    The avalanche prone area covers about 3 million square kilometers or 18% of total area of Russia and pose a significant problem in most mountain regions of the country. The constant growth of economic activity, especially in the North Caucasus region and therefore the increased avalanche hazard lead to the demand of the large-scale avalanche risk assessment methods development. Such methods are needed for the determination of appropriate avalanche protection measures as well as for economic assessments during all stages of spatial planning of the territory. The requirement of natural hazard risk assessments is determined by the Federal Law of Russian Federation. However, Russian Guidelines (SP 11-103-97; SP 47.13330.2012) are not clearly presented concerning avalanche risk assessment calculations. A great size of Russia territory, vast diversity of natural conditions and large variations in type and level of economic development of different regions cause significant variations in avalanche risk values. At the first stage of research the small scale avalanche risk assessment was performed in order to identify the most common patterns of risk situations and to calculate full social risk and individual risk. The full social avalanche risk for the territory of country was estimated at 91 victims. The area of territory with individual risk values lesser then 1×10(-6) covers more than 92 % of mountain areas of the country. Within these territories the safety of population can be achieved mainly by organizational activities. Approximately 7% of mountain areas have 1×10(-6) - 1×10(-4) individual risk values and require specific mitigation measures to protect people and infrastructure. Territories with individual risk values 1×10(-4) and above covers about 0,1 % of the territory and include the most severe and hazardous mountain areas. The whole specter of mitigation measures is required in order to minimize risk. The future development of such areas is not recommended

  11. Risk Assessment tailored to cryogenics - LINDE approach

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2016-01-01

    The following Risk Assessment Tools will be presented: **HAZID – Hazard Identification Study** Application: if the process contains new applications or provides new challenges (e.g. plant location) Purpose: Identify hazards such as fire/explosion, toxic impact, occupational hazards etc. and assess adequate preventive / mitigation measures **HAZOP – Hazard and Operability Study** Application: for all Projects Purpose: Detailed review of design reflected in the PID to ensure that adequate safeguards are available for all possible process upsets or maloperations. **HAZAN – Hazard Analysis** Application: for all PFHE (plate-fin heat exchangers), CWHE (coil wound heat exchangers) and straight tube sheet heat exchangers Purpose: detailed analysis of the impact of process upset conditions and start-up / shut down scenarios on the lifetime of the heat exchangers – including definition of additional safeguards, if required. **TQR – Technology Qualification Review** Application: for applications...

  12. Ecological Risk Assessment in Water Resource Management ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The US EPA published guidelines for the application of ecological risk assessment (ERA) in the USA in 1998 (US EPA 1998). The process diagram derived by Murray and Claassen (1999) in an evaluation of the US EPA framework is discussed in the context of the South African National Water Act. The evaluation discusses ...

  13. Competing risk theory and radiation risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Groer, P.G.

    1980-01-01

    New statistical procedures are applied to estimate cumulative distribution functions (c.d.f.), force of mortality, and latent period for radiation-induced malignancies. It is demonstrated that correction for competing risks influences the shape of dose response curves, estimates of the latent period, and of the risk from ionizing radiations. The equivalence of the following concepts is demonstrated: force of mortality, hazard rate, and age or time specific incidence. This equivalence makes it possible to use procedures from reliability analysis and demography for radiation risk assessment. Two methods used by reliability analysts - hazard plotting and total time on test plots - are discussed in some detail and applied to characterize the hazard rate in radiation carcinogenesis. C.d.f.'s with increasing, decreasing, or constant hazard rate have different shapes and are shown to yield different dose-response curves for continuous irradiation. Absolute risk is shown to be a sound estimator only if the force of mortality is constant for the exposed and the control group. Dose-response relationships that use the absolute risk as a measure for the effect turn out to be special cases of dose-response relationships that measure the effect with cumulative incidence. (H.K.)

  14. Caries risk assessment in children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, S

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE: To summarise the findings of recent systematic reviews (SR) covering caries risk assessment in children, updated with recent primary studies. METHODS: A search for relevant papers published 2012-2014 was conducted in electronic databases. The systematic reviews were quality assessed...... displayed a high risk of bias. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the present summary of literature, it may be concluded: (1) a caries risk assessment should be carried out at the child's first dental visit and reassessments should be done during childhood (D); (2) multivariate models display a better accuracy than...... the use of single predictors and this is especially true for preschool children (C); (3) there is no clearly superior method to predict future caries and no evidence to support the use of one model, program, or technology before the other (C); and (4) the risk category should be linked to appropriate...

  15. An application and verification of ensemble forecasting on wind power to assess operational risk indicators in power grids

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alessandrini, S.; Ciapessoni, E.; Cirio, D.; Pitto, A.; Sperati, S. [Ricerca sul Sistema Energetico RSE S.p.A., Milan (Italy). Power System Development Dept. and Environment and Sustainable Development Dept.; Pinson, P. [Technical University of Denmark, Lyngby (Denmark). DTU Informatics

    2012-07-01

    Wind energy is part of the so-called not schedulable renewable sources, i.e. it must be exploited when it is available, otherwise it is lost. In European regulation it has priority of dispatch over conventional generation, to maximize green energy production. However, being variable and uncertain, wind (and solar) generation raises several issues for the security of the power grids operation. In particular, Transmission System Operators (TSOs) need as accurate as possible forecasts. Nowadays a deterministic approach in wind power forecasting (WPF) could easily be considered insufficient to face the uncertainty associated to wind energy. In order to obtain information about the accuracy of a forecast and a reliable estimation of its uncertainty, probabilistic forecasting is becoming increasingly widespread. In this paper we investigate the performances of the COnsortium for Small-scale MOdelling Limited area Ensemble Prediction System (COSMO-LEPS). First the ensemble application is followed by assessment of its properties (i.e. consistency, reliability) using different verification indices and diagrams calculated on wind power. Then we provide examples of how EPS based wind power forecast can be used in power system security analyses. Quantifying the forecast uncertainty allows to determine more accurately the regulation reserve requirements, hence improving security of operation and reducing system costs. In particular, the paper also presents a probabilistic power flow (PPF) technique developed at RSE and aimed to evaluate the impact of wind power forecast accuracy on the probability of security violations in power systems. (orig.)

  16. Assessing Risk of Innovation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allgood, GO

    2001-01-01

    Today's manufacturing systems and equipment must perform at levels thought impossible a decade ago. Companies must push operations, quality, and efficiencies to unprecedented levels while holding down costs. In this new economy, companies must be concerned with market shares, equity growth, market saturation, and profit. U.S. manufacturing is no exception and is a prime example of businesses forced to adapt to constant and rapid changes in customer needs and product mixes, giving rise to the term ''Agile Manufacturing''. The survival and ultimate success of the American Manufacturing economy may depend upon its ability to create, innovate, and quickly assess the impact that new innovations will have on its business practices. Given the need for flexibility, companies need proven methods to predict and measure the impact that new technologies and strategies will have on overall plant performance from an enterprise perspective. The Value-Derivative Model provides a methodology and approach to assess such impacts in terms of energy savings, production increases, quality impacts, emission reduction, and maintenance and operating costs as they relate to enabling and emerging technologies. This is realized by calculating a set of first order sensitivity parameters obtained from expanding a Taylor Series about the system's operating point. These sensitivity parameters are invariant economic and operational indicators that quantify the impact of any proposed technology in terms of material throughput, efficiency, energy usage, environmental effects, and costs. These parameters also provide a mechanism to define metrics and performance measures that can be qualified in terms of real economic impact. Value-Derivative Analysis can be applied across all manufacturing and production segments of our economy and has found specific use in steel and textiles. Where economic models give the cost of conducting a business, Value-Derivative Analysis provides the cost to conduct

  17. Risk assessment for transport operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Appleton, P.R.; Miles, J.C.

    1990-01-01

    The world-wide safety of the transport of radioactive material is based on the IAEA Transport Regulations. Risk assessment can provide quantitative data to help in the demonstration, understanding and improvement of the effectiveness of the Regulations in assuring safety. In this Paper the methodology, data and computer codes necessary and available for transport risk assessment are reviewed. Notable examples of assessments carried out over the past 15 years are briefly described along with current research, and the benefits and limitations of the techniques are discussed. (author)

  18. Safety analysis, risk assessment, and risk acceptance criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jamali, K.

    1997-01-01

    This paper discusses a number of topics that relate safety analysis as documented in the Department of Energy (DOE) safety analysis reports (SARs), probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) as characterized primarily in the context of the techniques that have assumed some level of formality in commercial nuclear power plant applications, and risk acceptance criteria as an outgrowth of PRA applications. DOE SARs of interest are those that are prepared for DOE facilities under DOE Order 5480.23 and the implementing guidance in DOE STD-3009-94. It must be noted that the primary area of application for DOE STD-3009 is existing DOE facilities and that certain modifications of the STD-3009 approach are necessary in SARs for new facilities. Moreover, it is the hazard analysis (HA) and accident analysis (AA) portions of these SARs that are relevant to the present discussions. Although PRAs can be qualitative in nature, PRA as used in this paper refers more generally to all quantitative risk assessments and their underlying methods. HA as used in this paper refers more generally to all qualitative risk assessments and their underlying methods that have been in use in hazardous facilities other than nuclear power plants. This discussion includes both quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methods. PRA has been used, improved, developed, and refined since the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) was published in 1975 by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Much debate has ensued since WASH-1400 on exactly what the role of PRA should be in plant design, reactor licensing, 'ensuring' plant and process safety, and a large number of other decisions that must be made for potentially hazardous activities. Of particular interest in this area is whether the risks quantified using PRA should be compared with numerical risk acceptance criteria (RACs) to determine whether a facility is 'safe.' Use of RACs requires quantitative estimates of consequence frequency and magnitude

  19. Quantifying the effect of autonomous adaptation to global river flood projections: application to future flood risk assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinoshita, Youhei; Tanoue, Masahiro; Watanabe, Satoshi; Hirabayashi, Yukiko

    2018-01-01

    This study represents the first attempt to quantify the effects of autonomous adaptation on the projection of global flood hazards and to assess future flood risk by including this effect. A vulnerability scenario, which varies according to the autonomous adaptation effect for conventional disaster mitigation efforts, was developed based on historical vulnerability values derived from flood damage records and a river inundation simulation. Coupled with general circulation model outputs and future socioeconomic scenarios, potential future flood fatalities and economic loss were estimated. By including the effect of autonomous adaptation, our multimodel ensemble estimates projected a 2.0% decrease in potential flood fatalities and an 821% increase in potential economic losses by 2100 under the highest emission scenario together with a large population increase. Vulnerability changes reduced potential flood consequences by 64%-72% in terms of potential fatalities and 28%-42% in terms of potential economic losses by 2100. Although socioeconomic changes made the greatest contribution to the potential increased consequences of future floods, about a half of the increase of potential economic losses was mitigated by autonomous adaptation. There is a clear and positive relationship between the global temperature increase from the pre-industrial level and the estimated mean potential flood economic loss, while there is a negative relationship with potential fatalities due to the autonomous adaptation effect. A bootstrapping analysis suggests a significant increase in potential flood fatalities (+5.7%) without any adaptation if the temperature increases by 1.5 °C-2.0 °C, whereas the increase in potential economic loss (+0.9%) was not significant. Our method enables the effects of autonomous adaptation and additional adaptation efforts on climate-induced hazards to be distinguished, which would be essential for the accurate estimation of the cost of adaptation to

  20. Risk assessment and the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fisk, D.J.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change

  1. Risk assessment and the environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fisk, D J [Department of the Environment (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change.

  2. Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Health Professional Resources Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk Assessment of weight and health risk involves using ... risk for developing obesity-associated diseases or conditions. Risk Factors for Health Topics Associated With Obesity Along ...

  3. Reconnecting Stochastic Methods With Hydrogeological Applications: A Utilitarian Uncertainty Analysis and Risk Assessment Approach for the Design of Optimal Monitoring Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bode, Felix; Ferré, Ty; Zigelli, Niklas; Emmert, Martin; Nowak, Wolfgang

    2018-03-01

    Collaboration between academics and practitioners promotes knowledge transfer between research and industry, with both sides benefiting greatly. However, academic approaches are often not feasible given real-world limits on time, cost and data availability, especially for risk and uncertainty analyses. Although the need for uncertainty quantification and risk assessment are clear, there are few published studies examining how scientific methods can be used in practice. In this work, we introduce possible strategies for transferring and communicating academic approaches to real-world applications, countering the current disconnect between increasingly sophisticated academic methods and methods that work and are accepted in practice. We analyze a collaboration between academics and water suppliers in Germany who wanted to design optimal groundwater monitoring networks for drinking-water well catchments. Our key conclusions are: to prefer multiobjective over single-objective optimization; to replace Monte-Carlo analyses by scenario methods; and to replace data-hungry quantitative risk assessment by easy-to-communicate qualitative methods. For improved communication, it is critical to set up common glossaries of terms to avoid misunderstandings, use striking visualization to communicate key concepts, and jointly and continually revisit the project objectives. Ultimately, these approaches and recommendations are simple and utilitarian enough to be transferred directly to other practical water resource related problems.

  4. Aspects regarding explosion risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Părăian Mihaela

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Explosive risk occurs in all activities involving flammable substances in the form of gases, vapors, mists or dusts which, in mixture with air, can generate an explosive atmosphere. As explosions can cause human losses and huge material damage, the assessment of the explosion risk and the establishment of appropriate measures to reduce it to acceptable levels according to the standards and standards in force is of particular importance for the safety and health of people and goods.There is no yet a recognized method of assessing the explosion risk, but regardless of the applied method, the likelihood of an explosive atmosphere occurrence has to be determined, together with the occurrence of an efficient ignition source and the magnitude of foreseeable consequences. In assessment processes, consequences analysis has a secondary importance since it’s likely that explosions would always involve considerable damage, starting from important material damages and up to human damages that could lead to death.The purpose of the work is to highlight the important principles and elements to be taken into account for a specific risk assessment. An essential element in assessing the risk of explosion in workplaces where explosive atmospheres may occur is technical installations and personal protective equipment (PPE that must be designed, manufactured, installed and maintained so that they cannot generate a source of ignition. Explosion prevention and protection requirements are governed by specific norms and standards, and a main part of the explosion risk assessment is related to the assessment of the compliance of the equipment / installation with these requirements.

  5. Risk assessment and nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bodansky, D.

    1982-01-01

    The range of risk perceptions involving nuclear power is so great that there is little hope of bridging extreme positions, but a consensus based upon reasoned discussion among uncommitted people could determine a sensible path. Our concerns over the uncertainties of risk assessment have made it increasingly difficult to make responsible decisions fast enough to deal with modern needs. The result is an immobility in energy matters that can point to a 2% reduction in oil use as its only triumph. The risk of nuclear war as a result of military action over energy issues suggests to some that the solution is to abolish nuclear power (however impractical) and to others that a rapid spread of nuclear power will eliminate energy as an incentive for war. If nuclear war is the major risk to consider, risk assessments need to include the risks of war, as well as those of carbon dioxide buildup and socio-economic disruptions, all of which loom larger than the risks of nuclear-plant accidents. Energy choices should be aimed at diminishing these major risks, even if they include the use of nuclear power. 26 references

  6. Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... HRS Find a Specialist Share Twitter Facebook SCA Risk Assessment Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) occurs abruptly and without ... people of all ages and health conditions. Start Risk Assessment The Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment Tool ...

  7. Human reliability assessment and probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Embrey, D.E.; Lucas, D.A.

    1989-01-01

    Human reliability assessment (HRA) is used within Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to identify the human errors (both omission and commission) which have a significant effect on the overall safety of the system and to quantify the probability of their occurrence. There exist a variey of HRA techniques and the selection of an appropriate one is often difficult. This paper reviews a number of available HRA techniques and discusses their strengths and weaknesses. The techniques reviewed include: decompositional methods, time-reliability curves and systematic expert judgement techniques. (orig.)

  8. Environmental Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayramov, A. A.

    In this paper, various aspects of modern nanotechnologies and, as a result, risks of nanomaterials impact on an environment are considered. This very brief review of the First International Conference on Material and Information Sciences in High Technologies (2007, Baku, Azerbaijan) is given. The conference presented many reports that were devoted to nanotechnology in biology and business for the developing World, formation of charged nanoparticles for creation of functional nanostructures, nanoprocessing of carbon nanotubes, magnetic and optical properties of manganese-phosphorus nanowires, ultra-nanocrystalline diamond films, and nanophotonics communications in Azerbaijan. The mathematical methods of simulation of the group, individual and social risks are considered for the purpose of nanomaterials risk reduction and remediation. Lastly, we have conducted studies at a plant of polymeric materials (and nanomaterials), located near Baku. Assessments have been conducted on the individual risk of person affection and constructed the map of equal isolines and zones of individual risk for a plant of polymeric materials (and nanomaterials).

  9. Workshop: Economic Valuation of Mortality Risk Reduction: Assessing the State of the Art for Policy Applications (2002)

    Science.gov (United States)

    This two-day workshop, co-sponsored by EPA's National Center for Environmental Economics and National Center for Environmental Research, was dedicated to exploring methods for valuing mortality risk reductions. There were six sessions held in total.

  10. Probabilistic risk assessment: Number 219

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bari, R.A.

    1985-01-01

    This report describes a methodology for analyzing the safety of nuclear power plants. A historical overview of plants in the US is provided, and past, present, and future nuclear safety and risk assessment are discussed. A primer on nuclear power plants is provided with a discussion of pressurized water reactors (PWR) and boiling water reactors (BWR) and their operation and containment. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), utilizing both event-tree and fault-tree analysis, is discussed as a tool in reactor safety, decision making, and communications. (FI)

  11. A methodology for reviewing probabilistic risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Derby, S.L.

    1983-01-01

    The starting point for peer review of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a clear understanding of how the risk estimate was prepared and of what contributions dominate the calculation. The problem facing the reviewers is how to cut through the complex details of a PRA to gain this understanding. This paper presents a structured, analytical procedure that solves this problem. The effectiveness of this solution is demonstrated by an application on the Zion Probabilistic Safety Study. The procedure found the three dominant initiating events and provided a simplified reconstruction of the calculation of the risk estimate. Significant assessments of uncertainty were also identified. If peer review disputes the accuracy of these judgments, then the revised risk estimate could significantly increase

  12. Application of correspondence analysis in the assessment of mine tailings dam breakage risk in the Mediterranean region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salgueiro, Ana Rita; Pereira, Henrique Garcia; Rico, Maria-Teresa; Benito, Gerado; Díez-Herreo, Andrés

    2008-02-01

    A new statistical approach for preliminary risk evaluation of breakage in tailings dam is presented and illustrated by a case study regarding the Mediterranean region. The objective of the proposed method is to establish an empirical scale of risk, from which guidelines for prioritizing the collection of further specific information can be derived. The method relies on a historical database containing, in essence, two sets of qualitative data: the first set concerns the variables that are observable before the disaster (e.g., type and size of the dam, its location, and state of activity), and the second refers to the consequences of the disaster (e.g., failure type, sludge characteristics, fatalities categorization, and downstream range of damage). Based on a modified form of correspondence analysis, where the second set of attributes are projected as "supplementary variables" onto the axes provided by the eigenvalue decomposition of the matrix referring to the first set, a "qualitative regression" is performed, relating the variables to be predicted (contained in the second set) with the "predictors" (the observable variables). On the grounds of the previously derived relationship, the risk of breakage in a new case can be evaluated, given observable variables. The method was applied in a case study regarding a set of 13 test sites where the ranking of risk obtained was validated by expert knowledge. Once validated, the procedure was included in the final output of the e-EcoRisk UE project (A Regional Enterprise Network Decision-Support System for Environmental Risk and Disaster Management of Large-Scale Industrial Spills), allowing for a dynamic historical database updating and providing a prompt rough risk evaluation for a new case. The aim of this section of the global project is to provide a quantified context where failure cases occurred in the past for supporting analogue reasoning in preventing similar situations.

  13. Risk assessment using probabilistic standards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Avila, R.

    2004-01-01

    A core element of risk is uncertainty represented by plural outcomes and their likelihood. No risk exists if the future outcome is uniquely known and hence guaranteed. The probability that we will die some day is equal to 1, so there would be no fatal risk if sufficiently long time frame is assumed. Equally, rain risk does not exist if there was 100% assurance of rain tomorrow, although there would be other risks induced by the rain. In a formal sense, any risk exists if, and only if, more than one outcome is expected at a future time interval. In any practical risk assessment we have to deal with uncertainties associated with the possible outcomes. One way of dealing with the uncertainties is to be conservative in the assessments. For example, we may compare the maximal exposure to a radionuclide with a conservatively chosen reference value. In this case, if the exposure is below the reference value then it is possible to assure that the risk is low. Since single values are usually compared; this approach is commonly called 'deterministic'. Its main advantage lies in the simplicity and in that it requires minimum information. However, problems arise when the reference values are actually exceeded or might be exceeded, as in the case of potential exposures, and when the costs for realizing the reference values are high. In those cases, the lack of knowledge on the degree of conservatism involved impairs a rational weighing of the risks against other interests. In this presentation we will outline an approach for dealing with uncertainties that in our opinion is more consistent. We will call it a 'fully probabilistic risk assessment'. The essence of this approach consists in measuring the risk in terms of probabilities, where the later are obtained from comparison of two probabilistic distributions, one reflecting the uncertainties in the outcomes and one reflecting the uncertainties in the reference value (standard) used for defining adverse outcomes. Our first aim

  14. Bayesian networks: a new method for the modeling of bibliographic knowledge: application to fall risk assessment in geriatric patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lalande, Laure; Bourguignon, Laurent; Carlier, Chloé; Ducher, Michel

    2013-06-01

    Falls in geriatry are associated with important morbidity, mortality and high healthcare costs. Because of the large number of variables related to the risk of falling, determining patients at risk is a difficult challenge. The aim of this work was to validate a tool to detect patients with high risk of fall using only bibliographic knowledge. Thirty articles corresponding to 160 studies were used to modelize fall risk. A retrospective case-control cohort including 288 patients (88 ± 7 years) and a prospective cohort including 106 patients (89 ± 6 years) from two geriatric hospitals were used to validate the performances of our model. We identified 26 variables associated with an increased risk of fall. These variables were split into illnesses, medications, and environment. The combination of the three associated scores gives a global fall score. The sensitivity and the specificity were 31.4, 81.6, 38.5, and 90 %, respectively, for the retrospective and the prospective cohort. The performances of the model are similar to results observed with already existing prediction tools using model adjustment to data from numerous cohort studies. This work demonstrates that knowledge from the literature can be synthesized with Bayesian networks.

  15. New approaches for improving cardiovascular risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paredes, Simão; Rocha, Teresa; Mendes, Diana; Carvalho, Paulo; Henriques, Jorge; Morais, João; Ferreira, Jorge; Mendes, Miguel

    2016-01-01

    Clinical guidelines recommend the use of cardiovascular risk assessment tools (risk scores) to predict the risk of events such as cardiovascular death, since these scores can aid clinical decision-making and thereby reduce the social and economic costs of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, despite their importance, risk scores present important weaknesses that can diminish their reliability in clinical contexts. This study presents a new framework, based on current risk assessment tools, that aims to minimize these limitations. Appropriate application and combination of existing knowledge is the main focus of this work. Two different methodologies are applied: (i) a combination scheme that enables data to be extracted and processed from various sources of information, including current risk assessment tools and the contributions of the physician; and (ii) a personalization scheme based on the creation of patient groups with the purpose of identifying the most suitable risk assessment tool to assess the risk of a specific patient. Validation was performed based on a real patient dataset of 460 patients at Santa Cruz Hospital, Lisbon, Portugal, diagnosed with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome. Promising results were obtained with both approaches, which achieved sensitivity, specificity and geometric mean of 78.79%, 73.07% and 75.87%, and 75.69%, 69.79% and 72.71%, respectively. The proposed approaches present better performances than current CVD risk scores; however, additional datasets are required to back up these findings. Copyright © 2015 Sociedade Portuguesa de Cardiologia. Published by Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

  16. Dynamical systems probabilistic risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Denman, Matthew R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Ames, Arlo Leroy [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2014-03-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is the primary tool used to risk-inform nuclear power regulatory and licensing activities. Risk-informed regulations are intended to reduce inherent conservatism in regulatory metrics (e.g., allowable operating conditions and technical specifications) which are built into the regulatory framework by quantifying both the total risk profile as well as the change in the risk profile caused by an event or action (e.g., in-service inspection procedures or power uprates). Dynamical Systems (DS) analysis has been used to understand unintended time-dependent feedbacks in both industrial and organizational settings. In dynamical systems analysis, feedback loops can be characterized and studied as a function of time to describe the changes to the reliability of plant Structures, Systems and Components (SSCs). While DS has been used in many subject areas, some even within the PRA community, it has not been applied toward creating long-time horizon, dynamic PRAs (with time scales ranging between days and decades depending upon the analysis). Understanding slowly developing dynamic effects, such as wear-out, on SSC reliabilities may be instrumental in ensuring a safely and reliably operating nuclear fleet. Improving the estimation of a plant's continuously changing risk profile will allow for more meaningful risk insights, greater stakeholder confidence in risk insights, and increased operational flexibility.

  17. Probabilistic risk assessment as an aid to risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garrick, B.J.

    1982-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessments are providing important insights into nuclear power plant safety. Their value is two-fold: first as a means of quantifying nuclear plant risk including contributors to risk, and second as an aid to risk management. A risk assessment provides an analytical plant model that can be the basis for performing meaningful decision analyses for controlling safety. It is the aspect of quantitative risk management that makes probabilistic risk assessment an important technical discipline of the future

  18. DETERMINANTS OF RISK ASSESSMENT PROCESS IN CRITICAL ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Przemysław Borkowski

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Article deals with the problem of risk assessment in critical energy infrastructure. Firstly the critical infrastructure in energy sector is discussed than risk identification methodology for application to critical infrastructure is proposed. Specific conditions resulting from features of critical infrastructure are addressed in the context of risk assessment procedure. The limits of such a procedure are outlined and critical factors influencing different stages of risk assessment process are researched in view of specificity of the sector.

  19. Methodology for technical risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waganer, L.M.; Zuckerman, D.S.

    1983-01-01

    A methodology has been developed for and applied to the assessment of the technical risks associated with an evolving technology. This methodology, originally developed for fusion by K. W. Billman and F. R. Scott at EPRI, has been applied to assess the technical risk of a fuel system for a fusion reactor. Technical risk is defined as the risk that a particular technology or component which is currently under development will not achieve a set of required technical specifications (i.e. probability of failure). The individual steps in the technical risk assessment are summarized. The first step in this methodology is to clearly and completely quantify the technical requirements for the particular system being examined. The next step is to identify and define subsystems and various options which appear capable of achieving the required technical performance. The subsystem options are then characterized regarding subsystem functions, interface requirements with the subsystems and systems, important components, developmental obstacles and technical limitations. Key technical subsystem performance parameters are identified which directly or indirectly relate to the system technical specifications. Past, existing and future technical performance data from subsystem experts are obtained by using a Bayesian Interrogation technique. The input data is solicited in the form of probability functions. Thus the output performance of the system is expressed as probability functions

  20. Ecological risk assessment: Lessons learned?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1993-01-01

    This conference was held November 14--18, 1993 in Houston, Texas for the purpose of providing a forum for exchange of state-of-the-art information on ecological risk assessment. This book is comprised of the abstracts of the presentations at this symposium. Individual abstracts have been processed separately for inclusion in the appropriate data bases

  1. Where You Live: Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Where you live page shows visitors to the risk assessment website how to contact their local regional office by state. Since these link to pages maintained by the local offices they will have the most up-to-date contact information.

  2. Model based risk assessment - the CORAS framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gran, Bjoern Axel; Fredriksen, Rune; Thunem, Atoosa P-J.

    2004-04-15

    Traditional risk analysis and assessment is based on failure-oriented models of the system. In contrast to this, model-based risk assessment (MBRA) utilizes success-oriented models describing all intended system aspects, including functional, operational and organizational aspects of the target. The target models are then used as input sources for complementary risk analysis and assessment techniques, as well as a basis for the documentation of the assessment results. The EU-funded CORAS project developed a tool-supported methodology for the application of MBRA in security-critical systems. The methodology has been tested with successful outcome through a series of seven trial within the telemedicine and ecommerce areas. The CORAS project in general and the CORAS application of MBRA in particular have contributed positively to the visibility of model-based risk assessment and thus to the disclosure of several potentials for further exploitation of various aspects within this important research field. In that connection, the CORAS methodology's possibilities for further improvement towards utilization in more complex architectures and also in other application domains such as the nuclear field can be addressed. The latter calls for adapting the framework to address nuclear standards such as IEC 60880 and IEC 61513. For this development we recommend applying a trial driven approach within the nuclear field. The tool supported approach for combining risk analysis and system development also fits well with the HRP proposal for developing an Integrated Design Environment (IDE) providing efficient methods and tools to support control room systems design. (Author)

  3. An approach to risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simonsen, L.; Lund, S. P.; Hass, Ulla

    1998-01-01

    of Ministers with the task to propose criteria for neurotoxicity. Functional effects on the nervous system, such as reduction in memory and learning ability, decrease in attention, and alteration of behavior due to toxic chemicals in the environment is now being acknowledged as an important public health...... indicate that numerous persons are exposed in the working as well as in the general environment to several chemicals, for which almost no data on the effect on subtle neurophysiological functions are available. Development of an approach to risk assessment dealing with this problem is a major challenge...... in the nineties. Different approaches to risk assessment are discussed, the quality of the databases available for hazard assessment are evaluated, and the needs for further research are identified. (C) 1996 Intox Press, Inc....

  4. Integrating pixel- and polygon-based approaches to wildfire risk assessment: Application to a high-value watershed on the Pike and San Isabel National Forests, Colorado, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthew P. Thompson; Julie W. Gilbertson-Day; Joe H. Scott

    2015-01-01

    We develop a novel risk assessment approach that integrates complementary, yet distinct, spatial modeling approaches currently used in wildfire risk assessment. Motivation for this work stems largely from limitations of existing stochastic wildfire simulation systems, which can generate pixel-based outputs of fire behavior as well as polygon-based outputs of simulated...

  5. Innovative probabilistic risk assessment applications: barrier impairments and fracture toughness. 2. Demolition Debris and Tornado Missile Hazard During Decommissioning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Calhoun, David; Shepherd, Stephen

    2001-01-01

    impose on decommissioning projects. Unit 1 began operation in 1968. Because of the age of Unit 1's design and the low frequency of tornadoes in California, the original plant design did not provide any protection from tornado hazards. Tornado protection requirements were later imposed as a back-fit; however, the approved license change was based on a probabilistic risk assessment that defined Unit 1's tornado missile damage acceptance limit in terms of reactor core damage frequency. When several Unit 1 buildings have been demolished, construction will begin on an ISFSI for Unit 1's spent fuel. The ISFSI design incorporates tornado missile barrier features into the storage canister and transfer cask. These design provisions will alleviate any need to manage tornado missile hazards. Units 2 and 3 share a design basis for tornado missile protection that closely follows the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Standard Review Plan (NUREG 0800), Revision 1. Critical components are identified that are required to be functional following design-basis tornadoes. Missile barriers protect most critical components; however, some critical components are allowed to be exposed to tornado missiles provided the aggregate annual probability of damage to all critical components is -7 per unit. According to the analysis that established this probability, it is directly proportional to the inventory of unrestrained objects within a missile pickup/transport area that includes the entire site. To determine the increased probability of damage due to demolition work, the quantity of loose debris was estimated for several discrete time intervals of the decommissioning process. This intermediate result showed that debris controls would be necessary to protect critical components in Units 2 and 3 during the demolition of Unit 1. Several different methods for controlling debris were evaluated for efficacy, feasibility, and cost-effectiveness. Unit 1 decommissioning work will increase the number of

  6. Risk assessment of component failure modes and human errors using a new FMECA approach: application in the safety analysis of HDR brachytherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Giardina, M; Castiglia, F; Tomarchio, E

    2014-01-01

    Failure mode, effects and criticality analysis (FMECA) is a safety technique extensively used in many different industrial fields to identify and prevent potential failures. In the application of traditional FMECA, the risk priority number (RPN) is determined to rank the failure modes; however, the method has been criticised for having several weaknesses. Moreover, it is unable to adequately deal with human errors or negligence. In this paper, a new versatile fuzzy rule-based assessment model is proposed to evaluate the RPN index to rank both component failure and human error. The proposed methodology is applied to potential radiological over-exposure of patients during high-dose-rate brachytherapy treatments. The critical analysis of the results can provide recommendations and suggestions regarding safety provisions for the equipment and procedures required to reduce the occurrence of accidental events. (paper)

  7. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with...

  8. Update earthquake risk assessment in Cairo, Egypt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badawy, Ahmed; Korrat, Ibrahim; El-Hadidy, Mahmoud; Gaber, Hanan

    2017-07-01

    The Cairo earthquake (12 October 1992; m b = 5.8) is still and after 25 years one of the most painful events and is dug into the Egyptians memory. This is not due to the strength of the earthquake but due to the accompanied losses and damages (561 dead; 10,000 injured and 3000 families lost their homes). Nowadays, the most frequent and important question that should rise is "what if this earthquake is repeated today." In this study, we simulate the same size earthquake (12 October 1992) ground motion shaking and the consequent social-economic impacts in terms of losses and damages. Seismic hazard, earthquake catalogs, soil types, demographics, and building inventories were integrated into HAZUS-MH to produce a sound earthquake risk assessment for Cairo including economic and social losses. Generally, the earthquake risk assessment clearly indicates that "the losses and damages may be increased twice or three times" in Cairo compared to the 1992 earthquake. The earthquake risk profile reveals that five districts (Al-Sahel, El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr sharq) lie in high seismic risks, and three districts (Manshiyat Naser, El-Waily, and Wassat (center)) are in low seismic risk level. Moreover, the building damage estimations reflect that Gharb is the highest vulnerable district. The analysis shows that the Cairo urban area faces high risk. Deteriorating buildings and infrastructure make the city particularly vulnerable to earthquake risks. For instance, more than 90 % of the estimated buildings damages are concentrated within the most densely populated (El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr Gharb) districts. Moreover, about 75 % of casualties are in the same districts. Actually, an earthquake risk assessment for Cairo represents a crucial application of the HAZUS earthquake loss estimation model for risk management. Finally, for mitigation, risk reduction, and to improve the seismic performance of structures and assure life safety

  9. Risk assessment of radiation carcinogenesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kai, Michiaki

    2012-01-01

    This commentary describes the radiation cancer risk assessed by international organizations other than ICRP, assessed for radon and for internal exposure, in the series from the aspect of radiation protection of explaining the assessments done until ICRP Pub. 103. Statistic significant increase of cancer formation is proved at higher doses than 100-200 mSv. At lower doses, with use of mathematical model, United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) reported the death probability due to the excess lifetime risk (ELR) at 100 mSv of 0.36-0.77% for solid tumors and 0.03-0.05% for leukemia, and NRC in US, the risk of exposure-induced prevalence and death (REID) per 100 thousands persons of 800 (male)/1,310 (female) and 410/610, respectively. Both are essentially based on findings in A-bomb survivors. The assessment for Rn is described here not on dose. UK and US analyses of pooled raw data in case control studies revealed the significant increase of lung cancer formation at as low level as 100 Bq Rn/m3. Their analyses also showed the significance of smoking, which had been realized as a confounding factor in risk analysis of Rn for uranium miners. The death probability until the age of 85 y was found to be 1.2 x 10 -4 in non-smokers and 24 x 10 -4 in smokers/ Working Level Month (WLM). Increased thyroid cancer incidence has been known in Chernobyl Accident, which is realized as a result of internal exposure of radioiodine; however, the relationship between the internal dose to thyroid and its cancer prevalence resembles that in the case of external exposure. There is no certain evidence against the concept that risk of internal exposure is similar to and/or lower than, the external one although assessment of the internal exposure risk accompanies uncertainty depending on the used model and ingested dose. International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) recommendations hitherto have been important and precious despite

  10. The comet assay in Environmental Risk Assessment of marine pollutants: applications, assets and handicaps of surveying genotoxicity in non-model organisms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martins, Marta; Costa, Pedro M

    2015-01-01

    Determining the genotoxic effects of pollutants has long been a priority in Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA) for coastal ecosystems, especially of complex areas such as estuaries and other confined waterbodies. The acknowledged link between DNA damage, mutagenicity and carcinogenicity to the exposure to certain toxicants has been responsible to the growing interest in determining the genotoxic effects of xenobiotics to wildlife as a measure of environmental risk. The comet assay, although widely employed in in vivo and in vitro toxicology, still holds many constraints in ERA, in large part owing to difficulties in obtaining conclusive cause-effect relationships from complex environments. Nevertheless, these challenges do not hinder the attempts to apply the alkaline comet assay on sentinel organisms, wild or subjected to bioassays in or ex situ (from fish to molluscs) as well to standardise protocols and establish general guidelines to the interpretation of findings. Fish have been regarded as an appealing subject due to the ease of performing the comet assay in whole blood. However, the application of the comet assay is becoming increasingly common in invertebrates (e.g. in molluscan haemocytes and solid tissues such as gills). Virtually all sorts of results have been obtained from the application of the comet assay in ERA (null, positive and inconclusive). However, it has become clear that interpreting DNA damage data from wild organisms is particularly challenging due to their ability to adapt to continuous environmental stressors, including toxicants. Also, the comet assay in non-model organisms for the purpose of ERA implies different constraints, assumptions and interpretation of findings, compared with the in vitro procedures from which most guidelines have been derived. This paper critically reviews the application of the comet assay in ERA, focusing on target organisms and tissues; protocol developments, case studies plus data handling and

  11. Measures of risk importance and their applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vesely, W.E.; Davis, T.C.; Denning, R.S.; Saltos, N.

    1983-07-01

    This work is part of a project being conducted for the Division of Risk Analysis (DRA) of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). The objectives of the project are to evaluate the importances of containment, the different safety functions, and other various contributers as assessed in probabilistic risk analyses and to identify generic conclusions regarding the importances. Effective display of the importances is an important part of these objectives. To address these objectives, measures of risk importance need to be first identified and then they need to be evaluated for the different risk analyses which have been performed. This report describes the risk importance measures that were defined and were applied to the risk analyses which were performed as part of the Reactor Safety Study Methodology Applications Program (RSSMAP). The risk importance measures defined in this report measure the importance of features not only with regard to risk reduction but also with regard to reliability assurance, or risk maintenance. The goal of this report is not to identify new mathematical formulas for risk importance but to show how importance measures can be interpreted and can be applied

  12. Performance assessment - risk assessment vive la differences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nitschke, R.L.

    1997-01-01

    In the sister worlds of radioactive waste management disposal and environmental restoration, there are two similar processes and computational approaches for determining the acceptability of the proposed activities. While similar, these two techniques can lead to confusion and misunderstanding if the differences are not recognized and appreciated. In the case of radioactive waste management, the performance assessment process is used to determine compliance with certain prescribed 'performance objectives'. These objectives are designed to ensure that the disposal of radioactive (high-level, low-level, and/or transuranic) waste will be protective of human health and the environment. The environmental link is primarily through assuring protection of the groundwater as a resource. In the case of environmental restoration, the risk assessment process is used to determine the proper remedial action response, if any, for a past hazardous waste release. The process compares the 'no action' or 'leave as is' option with both carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic values for human health to determine the need for any action and to help to help determine just what the appropriate action would need to be. The impacts to the ecological system are evaluated in a slightly, different but similar fashion. Now the common objectives between these two processes notwithstanding. There are some key and fundamental differences that need to be answered that make direct comparisons or a common approach inappropriate. Failure to recognize this can lead to confusion and misunderstanding. This can be particularly problematic when one is faced with an active disposal facility located within the boundaries of an environmental restoration site as is the case at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL). Through a critical evaluation of the performance assessment and risk assessment processes, highlighting both similarities and differences, it is hoped that greater understanding and appreciation

  13. Efforts to utilize risk assessment at nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Narumiya, Yoshiyuki

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment means the use of the outputs that have been obtained through risk identification and risk analysis (risk information), followed by the determination of the response policy by comparing these outputs with the risk of judgement standards. This paper discusses the use of risk information with multifaceted nature and its significance, and the challenges to the further penetration of these items. As the lessons and risk assessment learnt from the past accidents, this paper takes up the cases of the severe accidents of Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, and Fukushima Daiichi power stations, and discusses their causes and expansion factors. In particular, at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station, important lessons were shortage in measures against the superimposition of earthquake and tsunami, and the insufficient use of risk assessment. This paper classified risk assessment from the viewpoint of risk information, and showed the contents and index for each item of risk reduction trends, risk increase trends, and measures according to the importance of risk. As the benefits of activities due to risk assessment, this paper referred to the application cases of the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of IAEA, and summarized the application activities of 10 items of risk indexes by classifying them to safety benefits and operational benefits. For example, in the item of flexible Allowed Outage Time (AOT), the avoidance of plant shutdown and the flexibility improvement of maintenance scheduling at a plant are corresponding to the above-mentioned benefits, respectively. (A.O.)

  14. RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES

    OpenAIRE

    Oksana G. Feoktistova; Igor K. Turkin; Sergey V. Barinov

    2017-01-01

    The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate pre...

  15. Risk assessment and societal choices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Otway, H J

    1975-02-15

    Many countries are experiencing a period in which traditional values are being questioned; plans for further technological progress are being met by a variety of demands for a closer examination of the benefits and risks of large-scale technologies. In this paper the concepts of risk assessment are presented and a model is proposed which illustrates the importance of socio-psychological mechanisms in the acceptance of technological risks. The research plan of the Joint IAEA/IIASA Research Project is outlined: this work is directed toward gaining an improved understanding of how societies judge the acceptability of technologies and how societal attitudes and anticipated responses may be better integrated into the decision-making process. Some preliminary results are reported. (author)

  16. Risk assessment and societal choices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Otway, H.J.

    1975-01-01

    Many countries are experiencing a period in which traditional values are being questioned; plans for further technological progress are being met by a variety of demands for a closer examination of the benefits and risks of large-scale technologies. In this paper the concepts of risk assessment are presented and a model is proposed which illustrates the importance of socio-psychological mechanisms in the acceptance of technological risks. The research plan of the Joint IAEA/IIASA Research Project is outlined: this work is directed toward gaining an improved understanding of how societies judge the acceptability of technologies and how societal attitudes and anticipated responses may be better integrated into the decision-making process. Some preliminary results are reported. (author)

  17. Fire Risk Assessment in Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berg, H. P.

    2000-01-01

    Quantitative fire risk assessment can serve as an additional tool to assess the safety level of a nuclear power plant (NPP) and to set priorities for fire protection improvement measures. The recommended approach to be applied within periodic safety reviews of NPPs in Germany starts with a screening process providing critical fire zones in which a fully developed fire has the potential to both cause an initiating event and impair the function of at least one component or system critical to safety. The second step is to perform a quantitative analysis using a standard event tree has been developed with elements for fire initiation, ventilation of the room, fire detection, fire suppression, and fire propagation. In a final step, the fire induced frequency of initiating events, the main contributors and the calculated hazard state frequency for the fire event are determined. Results of the first quantitative fire risk studies performed in Germany are reported. (author)

  18. Hydrocarbons pipeline transportation risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zanin, A. V.; Milke, A. A.; Kvasov, I. N.

    2018-04-01

    The pipeline transportation applying risks assessment issue in the arctic conditions is addressed in the paper. Pipeline quality characteristics in the given environment has been assessed. To achieve the stated objective, the pipelines mathematical model was designed and visualized by using the software product SOLIDWORKS. When developing the mathematical model the obtained results made possible to define the pipeline optimal characteristics for designing on the Arctic sea bottom. In the course of conducting the research the pipe avalanche collapse risks were examined, internal longitudinal and circular loads acting on the pipeline were analyzed, as well as the water impact hydrodynamic force was taken into consideration. The conducted calculation can contribute to the pipeline transport further development under the harsh climate conditions of the Russian Federation Arctic shelf territory.

  19. Application of the accident consequences model of the German risk study to assessments of accident risks in different types of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ehrhardt, J.; Bayer, A.

    1982-01-01

    Within the scope of the 'German Risk Study for Nuclear Power Plants' (Phase A) the accident consequence model UFOMOD was developed in the Karlsruhe Nuclear Research Center. This model originally developed for pressurized water reactors has now been extended in order to obtain results about accidental releases of activity from fast breeder and high-temperature reactors, too. (RW) [de

  20. Risk Assessment of Shellfish Toxins

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rex Munday

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Complex secondary metabolites, some of which are highly toxic to mammals, are produced by many marine organisms. Some of these organisms are important food sources for marine animals and, when ingested, the toxins that they produce may be absorbed and stored in the tissues of the predators, which then become toxic to animals higher up the food chain. This is a particular problem with shellfish, and many cases of poisoning are reported in shellfish consumers each year. At present, there is no practicable means of preventing uptake of the toxins by shellfish or of removing them after harvesting. Assessment of the risk posed by such toxins is therefore required in order to determine levels that are unlikely to cause adverse effects in humans and to permit the establishment of regulatory limits in shellfish for human consumption. In the present review, the basic principles of risk assessment are described, and the progress made toward robust risk assessment of seafood toxins is discussed. While good progress has been made, it is clear that further toxicological studies are required before this goal is fully achieved.

  1. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.

  2. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms open-quote risk assessment close-quote and open-quote risk management close-quote are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of open-quotes... the most significant data and uncertainties...close quotes in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are open-quotes...those that define and explain the main risk conclusionsclose quotes. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation

  3. A radioecological risk assessment tool for post-accidental situations. Application in the Toulon marine area (South of France)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duffa, Celine; Thebault, Herve

    2010-01-01

    To estimate any post-accidental consequences in the environment and to propose adapted management plans, data concerning both radionuclides spatial dispersion and environmental sensitivity to this contamination are necessary. IRSN develops integrated tools to support experts and decision makers in post-accident situation concerning this area. This management tool aims to combine radionuclides dispersion modelling and radioecological sensitivity local maps to outline vulnerable areas front of a known release. An example of application to a maritime environment is given: the naval base of Toulon. Calculation of radionuclides dispersion is based on the existing MARS 3D hydrodynamic model. The radioecological sensitivity of the marine environment is based on the ecosystem intrinsic characteristics and the socio-economical resources. Mapping radionuclides dispersion results and sensitivity of defined zones of the studies area, we show that the Little Bay and the western part of Toulon marine area are the most vulnerable in case of accidental release occuring in the harbour. (orig.)

  4. SPECIFIC METHOD OF RISK ASSESSMENT IN TOURISM ENTERPRISES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreea ARMEAN

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to present an innovative method of risk assessment for tourism businesses. The contribution to literature is the novelty of this method of following paths: is an ante-factum assessment not post-factum; risk assessment is based on perception rather than results; is based on specific risks tourism enterprises not on the overall risks. Is an asset-research methodology and consists in generating its own method of risk assessment based on the ideas summarized from the literature studied. The aim established is tourism enterprises from Romania. The data necessary for the application of this method will result from applying to top level management of tourism enterprises, a questionnaire about risk perception. The results from this study will help identify and measure the risks specific to tourism enterprises. The applicability of the results is to improve risk management in these enterprises.

  5. Use of the hazard analysis and critical control points (HACCP) risk assessment on a medical device for parenteral application.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jahnke, Michael; Kühn, Klaus-Dieter

    2003-01-01

    In order to guarantee the consistently high quality of medical products for human use, it is absolutely necessary that flawless hygiene conditions are maintained by the strict observance of hygiene rules. With the growing understanding of the impact of process conditions on the quality of the resulting product, process controls (surveillance) have gained increasing importance to complete the quality profile traditionally defined by post-process product testing. Today, process controls have become an important GMP requirement for the pharmaceutical industry. However, before quality process controls can be introduced, the manufacturing process has to be analyzed, with the focus on its critical quality-influencing steps. The HACCP (Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points) method is well recognized as a useful tool in the pharmaceutical industry. This risk analysis, following the guidelines of the HACCP method and the monitoring of critical steps during the manufacturing process was applied to the manufacture of methyl methacrylate solution used for bone cement and led to the establishment of a preventative monitoring system and constitutes an effective concept for quality assurance of hygiene and all other parameters influencing the quality of the product.

  6. Feasibility study of a probabilistic method in seismic risk assessment. Application to the South-East of France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goula, Xavier.

    1980-09-01

    The analysis of the seismic hazard has given rise to the publication of the methods used in various countries (Cornell, 1968 - McGuire, 1977 - Saegesser, 1978). The purpose of this study is to examine the application of such methods to a concrete case in France. The choice fell on the south-eastern region where seismic data are relatively plentiful. The analysis includes the following stages: (1) collating historical seismic data for the region in question, (2) defining the source-areas where the historic earthquakes show similarities with respect to the decrease in intensity depending on the epicentral distance, (3) delimitating new source-areas, covering the entire region and, for each one, defining the mean frequencies of the occurrence of earthquakes of different epicentral intensities per annum and per sq.km. for each area, (4) for a given point, and possibly for the whole region, the local effects linked to the source-areas taken as a whole are aggregated with the mean propagation laws, by integrating in the analysis the uncertainties due to the adjustments of these laws to the experimental data. It would appear that in such a method the description of the sources by the magnitudes has been abandoned; for each area an earthquake shock is entirely described by its epicentral intensity and by a mean depth determined as from the configuration of the isoseists of the earthquake shocks interpreted according to an accepted model [fr

  7. A Hierarchal Risk Assessment Model Using the Evidential Reasoning Rule

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoxiao Ji

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to develop a hierarchical risk assessment model using the newly-developed evidential reasoning (ER rule, which constitutes a generic conjunctive probabilistic reasoning process. In this paper, we first provide a brief introduction to the basics of the ER rule and emphasize the strengths for representing and aggregating uncertain information from multiple experts and sources. Further, we discuss the key steps of developing the hierarchical risk assessment framework systematically, including (1 formulation of risk assessment hierarchy; (2 representation of both qualitative and quantitative information; (3 elicitation of attribute weights and information reliabilities; (4 aggregation of assessment information using the ER rule and (5 quantification and ranking of risks using utility-based transformation. The proposed hierarchical risk assessment framework can potentially be implemented to various complex and uncertain systems. A case study on the fire/explosion risk assessment of marine vessels demonstrates the applicability of the proposed risk assessment model.

  8. Management of uncertainties on parameters elicited by experts - Applications to sea-level rise and to CO2 storage operations risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manceau, Jean-Charles; Loschetter, Annick; Rohmer, Jérémy; Le Cozannet, Gonéri; Lary Louis, de; Guénan Thomas, Le; Ken, Hnottavange-Telleen

    2017-04-01

    In a context of high degree of uncertainty, when very few data are available, experts are commonly requested to provide their opinions on input parameters of risk assessment models. Not only might each expert express a certain degree of uncertainty on his/her own statements, but the set of information collected from the pool of experts introduces an additional level of uncertainty. It is indeed very unlikely that all experts agree on exactly the same data, especially regarding parameters needed for natural risk assessments. In some cases, their opinions may differ only slightly (e.g. the most plausible value for a parameter is similar for different experts, and they only disagree on the level of uncertainties that taint the said value) while on other cases they may express incompatible opinions for a same parameter. Dealing with these different kinds of uncertainties remains a challenge for assessing geological hazards or/and risks. Extra-probabilistic approaches (such as the Dempster-Shafer theory or the possibility theory) have shown to offer promising solutions for representing parameters on which the knowledge is limited. It is the case for instance when the available information prevents an expert from identifying a unique probability law to picture the total uncertainty. Moreover, such approaches are known to be particularly flexible when it comes to aggregating several and potentially conflicting opinions. We therefore propose to discuss the opportunity of applying these new theories for managing the uncertainties on parameters elicited by experts, by a comparison with the application of more classical probability approaches. The discussion is based on two different examples. The first example deals with the estimation of the injected CO2 plume extent in a reservoir in the context of CO2 geological storage. This estimation requires information on the effective porosity of the reservoir, which has been estimated by 14 different experts. The Dempster

  9. Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Knaap, L.M.; Leenarts, L.E.W.; Born, M.P.; Oosterveld, P.

    2012-01-01

    Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the

  10. Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Knaap, Leontien M.; Leenarts, Laura E. W.; Born, Marise Ph.; Oosterveld, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the generalizability of their results. The present study…

  11. Assessing the risk to green sturgeon from application of imidacloprid to control burrowing shrimp in Willapa Bay, Washington--Part II: controlled exposure studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frew, John A; Grue, Christian E

    2015-11-01

    The activities of 2 species of burrowing shrimp have a negative impact on the growth and survival of oysters reared on intertidal mudflats in Willapa Bay and Grays Harbor, Washington (USA). To maintain viable harvests, oyster growers proposed the application of the neonicotinoid insecticide imidacloprid onto harvested beds for the control of burrowing shrimp. In test applications, water column concentrations of imidacloprid were relatively low and dissipated rapidly. The foraging activities of the green sturgeon (listed in the US Endangered Species Act) could result in exposure to higher, more sustained imidacloprid concentrations within sediment porewater and from the consumption of contaminated shrimp. Controlled experiments were conducted using surrogate white sturgeon to determine acute and chronic effect concentrations, to examine overt effects at more environmentally realistic concentrations and durations of exposure, and to assess chemical depuration. The 96-h median lethal concentration was 124 mg L(-1) , and the predicted 35-d no-observed-adverse-effect concentration was 0.7 mg L(-1) . No overt effects were observed following environmentally relevant exposures. Imidacloprid half-life in plasma was greater than 32 h. Measured concentrations of imidacloprid in porewater were significantly lower than the derived acute and chronic effect concentrations for white sturgeon. Exposure risk quotients were calculated using the effect concentrations and estimated environmental exposure. The resulting values were considerably below the level of concern for direct effects from either acute or chronic exposure to an endangered species. © 2015 SETAC.

  12. Total cardiovascular disease risk assessment: a review.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2011-09-01

    The high risk strategy for the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) requires an assessment of an individual\\'s total CVD risk so that the most intensive risk factor management can be directed towards those at highest risk. Here we review developments in the assessment and estimation of total CVD risk.

  13. [Risk Assessment and Risk Management of Chemicals in China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Tie-yu; Zhou, Yun-qiao; Li, Qi-feng; Lü, Yong-long

    2016-02-15

    Risk assessment and risk management have been increasingly approved as an effective approach for appropriate disposal and scientific management of chemicals. This study systematically analyzed the risk assessment methods of chemicals from three aspects including health risk, ecological risk and regional risk. Based on the current situation of classification and management towards chemicals in China, a specific framework of risk management on chemicals was proposed by selecting target chemicals, predominant industries and related stakeholders as the objects. The results of the present study will provide scientific support for improving risk assessment and reasonable management of chemicals in China.

  14. Risk communication and environmental risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petts, J.

    1994-01-01

    This paper attempts to provide a broad context for consideration of appropriate risk communication approaches. It examines the basis of public concerns and in particular the non-risk dimensions. The latter are so important in any risk decision that means of communication which can deal with them are required which extend beyond understanding how to present risk estimates. These means relate to (a) the decision processes themselves and the extent to which they provide for involvement of the public in decisions, (b) the communication skills of experts, and (c) the robustness of the risk information which is available. (Author)

  15. US EPA - A*Star Partnership - Accelerating the Acceptance of Next-Generation Sciences and Their Application to Regulatory Risk Assessment (A*Star Symposium, Singapore)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The path for incorporating new alternative methods and technologies into quantitative chemical risk assessment poses a diverse set of scientific challenges. Some of these challenges include development of relevant and predictive test systems and computational models to integrate...

  16. Molecular radiobiology and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Georgieva, R.

    2009-01-01

    Full text: Attitudes towards the radiation protection standards on in Europe and the world largely depends on scientific knowledge, periodically published by the United Nations Scientific Committee (UNSCEAR) and the recommendations of the International Commission on Radiation Protection (ICRP), which also comply with the research. The new scientific evidence by conducting an additional research is a crucial element in the process of protection of people, workers and patients in medicine from the adverse health effects. Although these standards are clear and easy to apply, there is serious doubt from a scientific perspective about the level of health risk at low doses, which keep up a fierce debate, both eight scientific and political society. The answer to this question requires the integrated efforts of many scientific disciplines. Increasingly rapid advances in biological and medical knowledge provide the necessary conditions for achieving this aim. This lecture tries to shed light on the current state of knowledge, the main unresolved problems in science in the context of radiation protection and risk assessment, and on those lines of research that have the greatest potential to address the issues. They mainly concern issues of doses and biological effects of different types of ionisation radiation, biological effects in cells/tissues which initiate health effects at low doses, individual variability and direct health risk assessment by epidemiological studies of groups exposed to lower doses irradiation

  17. Screening for type 2 diabetes mellitus in patients with mental illness: application of a self-assessment score for diabetes mellitus risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, Jinah K; Shortridge-Baggett, Lillie M; Sachmechi, Issac; Barron, Charles; Chiu, Ya-Lin; Bajracharya, Bhavana; Bang, Heejung

    2014-12-30

    Various methods for diabetes risk assessment have been developed over a decade, but they were not evaluated in patients with mental illness. This study examined the feasibility and utility of a self-assessment score for type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM2) risk among patients with mental illness. DM2 risk was assessed by patients with mental illness as well as clinicians via a self-assessment questionnaire, and the resulting scores were compared to each other as well as with actual diagnosis. Of 100 patients, nine patients were newly revealed to have DM2 and 34 patients have pre-DM2. Patients tended to underreport risk factors - obesity and physical activity - so perceived to have lower risk. Sensitivity of the self-assessment score was different when used by patients and by clinicians despite correlation coefficient of 0.82. Based on positive predictive values, we may expect one out of two patients who have high scores actually have DM2 or pre-DM2. Also, the discrimination capability was reasonably high (AUC=0.79), comparable to its performance observed in general populations. The self-assessment score has potential as a simple and adjunct tool to identify a high risk group of DM2/pre-DM2 among persons with mental illness, especially, when used together with health care providers. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Expert judgement models in quantitative risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosqvist, T. [VTT Automation, Helsinki (Finland); Tuominen, R. [VTT Automation, Tampere (Finland)

    1999-12-01

    Expert judgement is a valuable source of information in risk management. Especially, risk-based decision making relies significantly on quantitative risk assessment, which requires numerical data describing the initiator event frequencies and conditional probabilities in the risk model. This data is seldom found in databases and has to be elicited from qualified experts. In this report, we discuss some modelling approaches to expert judgement in risk modelling. A classical and a Bayesian expert model is presented and applied to real case expert judgement data. The cornerstone in the models is the log-normal distribution, which is argued to be a satisfactory choice for modelling degree-of-belief type probability distributions with respect to the unknown parameters in a risk model. Expert judgements are qualified according to bias, dispersion, and dependency, which are treated differently in the classical and Bayesian approaches. The differences are pointed out and related to the application task. Differences in the results obtained from the different approaches, as applied to real case expert judgement data, are discussed. Also, the role of a degree-of-belief type probability in risk decision making is discussed.

  19. Expert judgement models in quantitative risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosqvist, T.; Tuominen, R.

    1999-01-01

    Expert judgement is a valuable source of information in risk management. Especially, risk-based decision making relies significantly on quantitative risk assessment, which requires numerical data describing the initiator event frequencies and conditional probabilities in the risk model. This data is seldom found in databases and has to be elicited from qualified experts. In this report, we discuss some modelling approaches to expert judgement in risk modelling. A classical and a Bayesian expert model is presented and applied to real case expert judgement data. The cornerstone in the models is the log-normal distribution, which is argued to be a satisfactory choice for modelling degree-of-belief type probability distributions with respect to the unknown parameters in a risk model. Expert judgements are qualified according to bias, dispersion, and dependency, which are treated differently in the classical and Bayesian approaches. The differences are pointed out and related to the application task. Differences in the results obtained from the different approaches, as applied to real case expert judgement data, are discussed. Also, the role of a degree-of-belief type probability in risk decision making is discussed

  20. Uncertainties in risk assessment and decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Starzec, Peter; Purucker, Tom; Stewart, Robert

    2008-02-01

    The general concept for risk assessment in accordance with the Swedish model for contaminated soil implies that the toxicological reference value for a given receptor is first back-calculated to a corresponding concentration of a compound in soil and (if applicable) then modified with respect to e.g. background levels, acute toxicity, and factor of safety. This result in a guideline value that is subsequently compared to the observed concentration levels. Many sources of uncertainty exist when assessing whether the risk for a receptor is significant or not. In this study, the uncertainty aspects have been addressed from three standpoints: 1. Uncertainty in the comparison between the level of contamination (source) and a given risk criterion (e.g. a guideline value) and possible implications on subsequent decisions. This type of uncertainty is considered to be most important in situations where a contaminant is expected to be spatially heterogeneous without any tendency to form isolated clusters (hotspots) that can be easily delineated, i.e. where mean values are appropriate to compare to the risk criterion. 2. Uncertainty in spatial distribution of a contaminant. Spatial uncertainty should be accounted for when hotspots are to be delineated and the volume of soil contaminated with levels above a stated decision criterion has to be assessed (quantified). 3. Uncertainty in an ecological exposure model with regard to the moving pattern of a receptor in relation to spatial distribution of contaminant in question. The study points out that the choice of methodology to characterize the relation between contaminant concentration and a pre-defined risk criterion is governed by a conceptual perception of the contaminant's spatial distribution and also depends on the structure of collected data (observations). How uncertainty in transition from contaminant concentration into risk criterion can be quantified was demonstrated by applying hypothesis tests and the concept of

  1. Applying Multi-Criteria Analysis Methods for Fire Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pushkina Julia

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to prove the application of multi-criteria analysis methods for optimisation of fire risk identification and assessment process. The object of this research is fire risk and risk assessment. The subject of the research is studying the application of analytic hierarchy process for modelling and influence assessment of various fire risk factors. Results of research conducted by the authors can be used by insurance companies to perform the detailed assessment of fire risks on the object and to calculate a risk extra charge to an insurance premium; by the state supervisory institutions to determine the compliance of a condition of object with requirements of regulations; by real state owners and investors to carry out actions for decrease in degree of fire risks and minimisation of possible losses.

  2. Concept of risk: risk assessment and nuclear safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, P.B.

    1980-01-01

    The dissertation is a critical examination of risk assessment and its role in public policy. Nuclear power safety safety issues are selected as the primary source of illustrations and examples. The dissertation examines how risk assessment studies develop a concept of risk which becomes decisive for policy choices. Risk-assessment techniques are interpreted as instruments which secure an evaluation of risk which, in turn, figures prominently in technical reports on nuclear power. The philosophical critique is mounted on two levels. First, an epistemological critique surveys distinctions between the technical concept of risk and more familiar senses of risk. The critique shows that utilization of risk assessment re-structures the concept of risk. The technical concept is contrasted to the function of risk within a decision-maker's conceptual agenda and hierarchy of values. Second, an ethical critique exposes the value commitments of risk assessment recommendations. Although some of these values might be defended for policy decisions, the technical character of risk assessment obfuscates normative issues. Risk assessment is shown to be a form of factual enquiry which, nonetheless, represents a commitment to a specific selection of ethical and social values. Risk assessment should not be interpreted as a primary guide to decision unless the specific values incorporated into its concept of risk are stated explicitly and justified philosophically. Such a statement would allow value questions which have been sublimated by the factual tone of the analytic techniques to be debated on clear, social and ethical grounds

  3. Risk assessment for biodiversity conservation planning in Pacific Northwest forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becky K. Kerns; Alan Ager

    2007-01-01

    Risk assessment can provide a robust strategy for landscape-scale planning challenges associated with species conservation and habitat protection in Pacific Northwest forests. We provide an overview of quantitative and probabilistic ecological risk assessment with focus on the application of approaches and influences from the actuarial, financial, and technical...

  4. Assessing the risk of nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Letourneau, E.G.; McCullough, R.S.; Meyerhof, D.P.; Somers, E.; Waight, P.J.

    1981-01-01

    The current concern with diminishing supplies of non-renewable energy has brought into clearer focus the debate on the future of nuclear energy. Application of the risk assessment process to the biological effects of radiation is considered worthwhile so that the nature and order of the hazards entailed can be appreciated in the total context of the problem. The derivation of regulations and the process of cost-risk-benefit analysis are also discussed. In view of the widespread public concern and, on occasion, apprehension about the development of nuclear energy it has been thought useful to tabulate the elements of this concern so as to gain a fuller understanding of the manner in which the public perceives and weighs risks. (author)

  5. Risk assessment of topically applied products

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Søborg, Tue; Basse, Line Hollesen; Halling-Sørensen, Bent

    2007-01-01

    The human risk of harmful substances in semisolid topical dosage forms applied topically to normal skin and broken skin, respectively, was assessed. Bisphenol A diglycidyl ether (BADGE) and three derivatives of BADGE previously quantified in aqueous cream and the UV filters 3-BC and 4-MBC were used...... as model compounds. Tolerable daily intake (TDI) values have been established for BADGE and derivatives. Endocrine disruption was chosen as endpoint for 3-BC and 4-MBC. Skin permeation of the model compounds was investigated in vitro using pig skin membranes. Tape stripping was applied to simulate broken...... parameters for estimating the risk. The immediate human risk of BADGE and derivatives in topical dosage forms was found to be low. However, local treatment of broken skin may lead to higher exposure of BADGE and derivatives compared to application to normal skin. 3-BC permeated skin at higher flux than 4-MBC...

  6. Civil migration and risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Onishi, Y.; Brown, S.M.; Olsen, A.R.; Parkhurst, M.A.

    1981-01-01

    To provide a scientific basis for risk assessment and decision making, the Chemical Migration and Risk Assessment (CMRA) Methodology was developed to simulate overland and instream toxic containment migration and fate, and to predict the probability of acute and chronic impacts on aquatic biota. The simulation results indicated that the time between the pesticide application and the subsequent runoff producing event was the most important factor determining the amount of the alachlor. The study also revealed that sediment transport has important effects on contaminant migration when sediment concentrations in receiving streams are high or contaminants are highly susceptible to adsorption by sediment. Although the capabilities of the CMRA methodology were only partially tested in this study, the results demonstrate that methodology can be used as a scientific decision-making tool for toxic chemical regulations, a research tool to evaluate the relative significance of various transport and degradation phenomena, as well as a tool to examine the effectiveness of toxic chemical control practice

  7. Risk assessment terminology: risk communication part 1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gaetano Liuzzo

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes the terminology of risk communication in the view of food safety: the theory of stakeholders, the citizens’ involvement and the community interest and consultation are reported. Different aspects of risk communication (public communication, scientific uncertainty, trust, care, consensus and crisis communication are discussed.

  8. Microbiological risk assessment and public health

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roger Skinner

    1992-01-01

    Despite the advances made in risk assessment i the past twenty years, in areas as diverse as toxicology and offshore engineering, the risk assessment approach has made little impact on those addressing the microbiological aspects of public health. In this paper the advances which have been made are discussed and the difficulties preventing the wider application of microbiological risk assessment (MRA) to public health are considered. The term microbiological risk is used here to mean the probability of contracting a disease caused by a microorganism. I intend to demonstrate that the dynamic nature of microorganisms and the unique nature of the relationship between a pathogen (a microorganism which causes disease) and its host create special challenges for those involved in MRA. Although these problems are difficult they are not intractable. Indeed in some cases partial solutions have already been found and applied. It is hoped that this paper will help stimulate further thought and consideration in a variety of disciplines so that these challenges can be met, thereby allowing MRA to fulfil its potential

  9. Microbiological risk assessment and public health

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Skinner, Roger

    1992-07-01

    Despite the advances made in risk assessment i the past twenty years, in areas as diverse as toxicology and offshore engineering, the risk assessment approach has made little impact on those addressing the microbiological aspects of public health. In this paper the advances which have been made are discussed and the difficulties preventing the wider application of microbiological risk assessment (MRA) to public health are considered. The term microbiological risk is used here to mean the probability of contracting a disease caused by a microorganism. I intend to demonstrate that the dynamic nature of microorganisms and the unique nature of the relationship between a pathogen (a microorganism which causes disease) and its host create special challenges for those involved in MRA. Although these problems are difficult they are not intractable. Indeed in some cases partial solutions have already been found and applied. It is hoped that this paper will help stimulate further thought and consideration in a variety of disciplines so that these challenges can be met, thereby allowing MRA to fulfil its potential.

  10. Integration of Probabilistic and Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment Within Urban Development Planning and Emergency Preparedness and Response:Application to Manizales, Colombia

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Gabriel A.Bernal; Mario A.Salgado-Gálvez; Daniela Zuloaga; Julián Tristancho; Diana González; Omar-Dar(i)o Cardona

    2017-01-01

    The details of a multi-hazard and probabilistic risk assessment,developed for urban planning and emergency response activities in Manizales,Colombia,are presented in this article.This risk assessment effort was developed under the framework of an integral disaster risk management project whose goal was to connect risk reduction activities by using open access and state-of-theart risk models.A probabilistic approach was used for the analysis of seismic,landslide,and volcanic hazards to obtain stochastic event sets suitable for probabilistic loss estimation and to generate risk results in different metrics after aggregating in a rigorous way the losses associated to the different hazards.Detailed and high resolution exposure databases were used for the building stock and infrastructure of the city together with a set of vulnerability functions for each of the perils considered.The urban and territorial ordering plan of the city was updated for socioeconomic development and land use using the hazard and risk inputs and determinants,which cover not only the current urban area but also those adjacent areas where the expansion of Manizales is expected to occur.The emergency response capabilities of the city were improved by taking into account risk scenarios and after updating an automatic and real-time post-earthquake damage assessment.

  11. A methodology for reviewing Probabilistic Risk Assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Derby, S.L.

    1983-01-01

    The starting point for peer review of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a clear understanding of how the risk estimate was prepared and of what contributions dominate the calculation. The problem facing the reviewers is how to cut through the complex details of a PRA to gain this understanding. This paper presents a structured, analytical procedure that solves this problem. The effectiveness of this solution is demonstrated by an application on the Zion Probabilistic Safety Study. The procedure found the three dominant initiating events and provided a simplified reconstruction of the calculation of the risk estimate. Significant assessments of uncertainty were also identified. If peer review disputes the accuracy of these judgments, then the revised risk estimate could significantly increase. The value of this procedure comes from having a systematic framework for the PRA review. Practical constraints limit the time and qualified people needed for an adequate review. Having the established framework from this procedure as a starting point, reviewers can focus most of their attention on the accuracy and the completeness of the calculation. Time wasted at the start of the review is reduced by first using this procedure to sort through the technical details of the PRA and to reconstruct the risk estimate from dominant contributions

  12. Recent developments in carcinogenic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krewski, D.; Murdoch, D.; Withey, J.R.

    1989-01-01

    In this paper, recent developments in the quantitative assessment of carcinogenic risks based on toxicological and epidemiological data are reviewed. In particular, model-free approaches to low-dose risk assessment which involve only the assumption of low-dose linearity are considered. Measures of carcinogenic potency which avoid the need to extrapolate to low doses are also described. The allometric bases for converting risk estimates between species are then discussed. Pharmacokinetic models for determining the dose delivered to the target tissue are examined, and the implications of using such models in extrapolating between doses, of exposure, and species are examined. The application of these concepts in chemical and radiation carcinogenesis is illustrated by means of brief case studies of methylene chloride and Rn. Biologically motivated cancer models based on the initiation-promotion-progression theory of carcinogenesis are discussed and compared with the classical multistage model. The estimation of risks with time-dependent exposure patterns is considered, and conditions under which the use of a time-weighted average dose is appropriate are identified. Finally, the estimation of carcinogenic risks posed by exposure to complex mixtures is explored. 92 references

  13. RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szabo Alina

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in the area and the professional expertise, this article outlines an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management reporting processes, by separating the risk in two main categories: strategic and operational risks. The focus is on risk prioritization and scoring; the final output will comprise a mix of strategic and operational (‘top 8-12’ risks, which should be used to establish the annual Internal Audit plan. Originality/value: By using an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management will eliminate the need for a separate Internal Audit risk assessment over prevailing risks. It will reduce the level of risk assessment overlap by different functions (Tax, Treasury, Information System over the same risk categories as a single methodology, is used and will align timings of risk assessment exercises. The risk prioritization by usage of risk and control scoring criteria highlights the combination between financial and non-financial impact criteria allowing risks that do not naturally lend themselves to a financial amount to be also assessed consistently. It is emphasized the usage of score method to prioritize the risks included in the annual audit plan in order to increase accuracy and timelines.

  14. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahlmann, Ralf; Horvath, Aniko

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage) assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems. PMID:26195922

  15. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahlmann, Ralf; Horvath, Aniko

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage) assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems.

  16. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stahlmann, Ralf

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems.

  17. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

  18. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-01-01

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

  19. Environmental chemicals - how do we assess the risk (question mark)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Somers, E.

    Risk assessment is considered as comprising risk identification, risk estimation, and risk evaluation. The methodology of risk estimation is described and the key role of animal experimentation outlined, drawing attention to the inherent problems of extrapolating from animals to humans. The application of risk estimation to regulatory decision-making in Canada is given for chloroform in drinking water; asbestos in dry-wall patching compounds; arsenic emissions in air; nitrogen oxides; mercury in fish; and the food additive saccharin. Risk evaluation represents societal judgement and is ultimately political but a number of techniques can be of value in separating the competing factors, i.e., comparison with natural background or with other risks, balancing risks from alternatives, and risk-benefit analysis. However, the inherent limitations of a completely rational approach to risk assessment must always be recognized. (author)

  20. Analytical solutions of linked fault tree probabilistic risk assessments using binary decision diagrams with emphasis on nuclear safety applications[Dissertation 17286

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nusbaumer, O. P. M

    2007-07-01

    This study is concerned with the quantification of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) using linked Fault Tree (FT) models. Probabilistic Risk assessment (PRA) of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) complements traditional deterministic analysis; it is widely recognized as a comprehensive and structured approach to identify accident scenarios and to derive numerical estimates of the associated risk levels. PRA models as found in the nuclear industry have evolved rapidly. Increasingly, they have been broadly applied to support numerous applications on various operational and regulatory matters. Regulatory bodies in many countries require that a PRA be performed for licensing purposes. PRA has reached the point where it can considerably influence the design and operation of nuclear power plants. However, most of the tools available for quantifying large PRA models are unable to produce analytically correct results. The algorithms of such quantifiers are designed to neglect sequences when their likelihood decreases below a predefined cutoff limit. In addition, the rare event approximation (e.g. Moivre's equation) is typically implemented for the first order, ignoring the success paths and the possibility that two or more events can occur simultaneously. This is only justified in assessments where the probabilities of the basic events are low. When the events in question are failures, the first order rare event approximation is always conservative, resulting in wrong interpretation of risk importance measures. Advanced NPP PRA models typically include human errors, common cause failure groups, seismic and phenomenological basic events, where the failure probabilities may approach unity, leading to questionable results. It is accepted that current quantification tools have reached their limits, and that new quantification techniques should be investigated. A novel approach using the mathematical concept of Binary Decision Diagram (BDD) is proposed to overcome these

  1. Probabilistic risk assessment for a loss of coolant accident in McMaster Nuclear Reactor and application of reliability physics model for modeling human reliability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ha, Taesung

    A probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) was conducted for a loss of coolant accident, (LOCA) in the McMaster Nuclear Reactor (MNR). A level 1 PRA was completed including event sequence modeling, system modeling, and quantification. To support the quantification of the accident sequence identified, data analysis using the Bayesian method and human reliability analysis (HRA) using the accident sequence evaluation procedure (ASEP) approach were performed. Since human performance in research reactors is significantly different from that in power reactors, a time-oriented HRA model (reliability physics model) was applied for the human error probability (HEP) estimation of the core relocation. This model is based on two competing random variables: phenomenological time and performance time. The response surface and direct Monte Carlo simulation with Latin Hypercube sampling were applied for estimating the phenomenological time, whereas the performance time was obtained from interviews with operators. An appropriate probability distribution for the phenomenological time was assigned by statistical goodness-of-fit tests. The human error probability (HEP) for the core relocation was estimated from these two competing quantities: phenomenological time and operators' performance time. The sensitivity of each probability distribution in human reliability estimation was investigated. In order to quantify the uncertainty in the predicted HEPs, a Bayesian approach was selected due to its capability of incorporating uncertainties in model itself and the parameters in that model. The HEP from the current time-oriented model was compared with that from the ASEP approach. Both results were used to evaluate the sensitivity of alternative huinan reliability modeling for the manual core relocation in the LOCA risk model. This exercise demonstrated the applicability of a reliability physics model supplemented with a. Bayesian approach for modeling human reliability and its potential

  2. The assessment of technical risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaeger, T.A.

    1978-01-01

    The safety of technical systems is so difficult to assess because the concept 'risk' contains technical-scientific factors as well as components of individual and social psychology. Immediate or short-term hazards of human life as i.e. caused by the operation of industrial plants and mediate and thus long-term hazards have to be distinguished. Characteristic for the second hazard groups is the great time-lag before the effect takes place. Thus a causal relationship can be recognized only late and not definitely. Even when the causes have been obviated the effects still show. The development of a systems-analytical model as a basis of decisive processes for the introduction of highly endangered large-scale technologies seems particularly difficult. A starting point for the quantification of the risk can still be seen in the product of the probability of realization and the extent of the damage. Public opinion, however, does not base its evaluations on an objective concept of risk but tends to have an attitude of aversion against great and disastrous accidents. On the other hand, plenty of slight accidents are accepted much more easily, even when the amount of deadly victims from accidents reaches dimensions beyond those of the rare large-scale accidents. Here, mostly the damage possible but not the probability of its occurence is seen, let alone the general use of the new technology. The value of the mathematical models for estimating risks is mainly due to the fact that they are able to clear up decisions. (orig./HP) [de

  3. Overview of the Capstone Depleted Uranium Study of Aerosols from Impact with Armored Vehicles: Test Setup and Aerosol Generation, Characterization, and Application in Assessing Dose and Risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parkhurst, MaryAnn; Guilmette, Raymond A.

    2009-01-01

    The Capstone Depleted Uranium (DU) Aerosol Characterization and Risk Assessment Study was conducted to generate data about DU aerosols generated during the perforation of armored combat vehicles with large-caliber DU penetrators, and to apply the data in assessments of human health risks to personnel exposed to these aerosols, primarily through inhalation, during the 1991 Gulf War or in future military operations. The Capstone study consisted of two components: (1) generating, sampling and characterizing DU aerosols by firing at and perforating combat vehicles and (2) applying the source-term quantities and characteristics of the aerosols to the evaluation of doses and risks. This paper reviews the background of the study including the bases for the study, previous reviews of DU particles and health assessments from DU used by the U.S. military, the objectives of the study components, the participants and oversight teams, and the types of exposures it was intended to evaluate. It then discusses exposure scenarios used in the dose and risk assessment and provides an overview of how the field tests and dose and risk assessments were conducted

  4. Environmental risk assessment: an Australian perspective. Supervising Scientist Report 102

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beer, T.; Ziolkowski, F.

    1995-01-01

    Environmental risk assessment can be used as a strategic tool to set environmental priorities and as a tactical tool to set environmental standards. This report is designed to inform Australian environmental managers about the techniques and applications of environmental risk assessment and to familiarize risk analysts with some of the issues that are of concern to environmental managers. The use of risk assessment is illustrated by applying its techniques to five case studies which include: risk from chemicals and from contaminated sites; risk to people and to the natural environment from development, such as uranium mining; climate change; and risk associated with political decision-making. Then, by considering Australian and overseas practice, a generic framework is presented within which environmental risk assessment in Australia can be undertaken, and possible methods of implementation are discussed. refs., 38 figs

  5. Violence Risk Assessment Practices in Denmark: A Multidisciplinary National Survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nielsen Louise Hjort

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available With a quadrupling of forensic psychiatric patients in Denmark over the past 20 years, focus on violence risk assessment practices across the country has increased. However, information is lacking regarding Danish risk assessment practice across professional disciplines and clinical settings; little is known about how violence risk assessments are conducted, which instruments are used for what purposes, and how mental health professionals rate their utility and costs. As part of a global survey exploring the application of violence risk assessment across 44 countries, the current study investigated Danish practice across several professional disciplines and settings in which forensic and high-risk mental health patients are assessed and treated. In total, 125 mental health professionals across the country completed the survey. The five instruments that respondents reported most commonly using for risk assessment, risk management planning and risk monitoring were Broset, HCR-20, the START, the PCL-R, and the PCL:SV. Whereas the HCR-20 was rated highest in usefulness for risk assessment, the START was rated most useful for risk management and risk monitoring. No significant differences in utility were observed across professional groups. Unstructured clinical judgments were reported to be faster but more expensive to conduct than using a risk assessment instrument. Implications for clinical practice are discussed.

  6. Questionnaire-based risk assessment system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sakajo, Satoko; Ohi, Tadashi

    2004-01-01

    In order to reduce human errors efficiently, it is important to evaluate error-likely tasks and improve them. There are a lot of evaluation methods, for example, experimental evaluation methods, investigations by the expert of human factors, checking guidelines, estimating human error probabilities, and so on. There are roughly two problems in those methods. (1) Qualitative evaluation methods do not evaluate how likely human errors will occur and do not estimate how effective the countermeasure is in reducing human error. (2) Most of the quantitative evaluation methods and detailed analysis methods require expert's judgment. We developed a questionnaire-based risk assessment method and its system. In this paper, we introduce the concept of the method, realization, and applications to a maintenance procedure of a nuclear power plant and an elevator. The feature of the method is that it is so simple and the inexpert can easily evaluate the risk of human error. Furthermore, because it is provided as an application service provider system, a lot of evaluators can use it simultaneously through internet and it is easy to collect and sum up the responses. We confirmed that it is useful to evaluate the risk of human error, analyze the problem, and estimate the effectiveness of countermeasures in advance through the applications. (author)

  7. Risk assessment for federal regulatory decisions on organisms produced through biotechnology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Payne, John H.; Medley, Terry L.

    1992-01-01

    This article discusses: 1. Purposes and history of risk assessment: application to biotechnology; 2. Framework in the United States for decisions on organisms produced through biotechnology; 3. Choosing from among potential approaches to assessment: a). exposure assessment does not equate to risk assessment: what are the hazards?; b). Setting risk assessment priorities; c). 'Quantitative' environmental and 'quantitative' ecological risk assessments; d). Ecological risk assessments based on biological and ecological principles. 4. The bases for good regulatory decisions

  8. Risk assessment for federal regulatory decisions on organisms produced through biotechnology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Payne, John H; Medley, Terry L [Biotechnology, Biologics and Environmental Protection Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Hyattsville, MD (United States)

    1992-07-01

    This article discusses: 1. Purposes and history of risk assessment: application to biotechnology; 2. Framework in the United States for decisions on organisms produced through biotechnology; 3. Choosing from among potential approaches to assessment: a). exposure assessment does not equate to risk assessment: what are the hazards?; b). Setting risk assessment priorities; c). 'Quantitative' environmental and 'quantitative' ecological risk assessments; d). Ecological risk assessments based on biological and ecological principles. 4. The bases for good regulatory decisions.

  9. The relation of risk assessment and health impact assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ádám, Balázs; Gulis, Gabriel

    2013-01-01

    than assessing a present situation. As part of this process, however, methods applied in risk assessment are used. Risk assessment typically characterises relation of a well-defined risk factor to a well-defined health outcome. Within HIA usually several individual risk assessments are needed...... of the causal chain from the proposal through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The stepwise analysis, systematic prioritization and consideration of horizontal interactions between the causal pathways make it feasible to use widely recognized risk assessment methods in the HIA......The level and distribution of health risks in a society is substantially influenced by measures of various policies, programmes or projects. Risk assessment can evaluate the nature, likelihood and severity of an adverse effect. Health impact assessment (HIA) provides similar function when used...

  10. Environmental Risk Assessment System for Phosphogypsum Tailing Dams

    OpenAIRE

    Xin Sun; Ping Ning; Xiaolong Tang; Honghong Yi; Kai Li; Lianbi Zhou; Xianmang Xu

    2013-01-01

    This paper may be of particular interest to the readers as it provides a new environmental risk assessment system for phosphogypsum tailing dams. In this paper, we studied the phosphogypsum tailing dams which include characteristics of the pollution source, environmental risk characteristics and evaluation requirements to identify the applicable environmental risk assessment methods. Two analytical methods, that is, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy logic, were used to handle the...

  11. Bayesian parameter estimation in probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siu, Nathan O.; Kelly, Dana L.

    1998-01-01

    Bayesian statistical methods are widely used in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) because of their ability to provide useful estimates of model parameters when data are sparse and because the subjective probability framework, from which these methods are derived, is a natural framework to address the decision problems motivating PRA. This paper presents a tutorial on Bayesian parameter estimation especially relevant to PRA. It summarizes the philosophy behind these methods, approaches for constructing likelihood functions and prior distributions, some simple but realistic examples, and a variety of cautions and lessons regarding practical applications. References are also provided for more in-depth coverage of various topics

  12. Getting fire risk assessment right.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charters, David

    2012-06-01

    The NHS has one of the world's largest and most varied estates, which at any time accommodates many of the most dependent people in society. With around 6,000 fires occurring in NHS premises each year, its duty of care--and that of other healthcare providers--demands very close attention to fire safety. Here Dr David Charters BSc, PhD, CEng, FIFireE, MIMechE, MSFPE, director of Fire Engineering at BRE Global, an independent third party approvals body offering certification of fire, security, and sustainability products and services, examines the critical role of fire risk assessment, and explains why the process should provide the 'foundation' for effective fire safety measures.

  13. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cathryn Clarke Murray

    Full Text Available The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such "indirect risks" can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their "at-risk status" designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but-by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here-they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within.

  14. Application of Biota Dose Assessment Committee Methodology to Assess Radiological Risk to Salmonids in the Hanford Reach of the Columbia River

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poston, Ted M.; Antonio, Ernest J.; Peterson, Robert E.

    2002-01-01

    Protective guidance for biota in the U.S. Department of Energy's Graded Approach for Evaluating Radiation Doses to Aquatic and Terrestrial Biota is based on population level protection guides of 10 or 1 mGy.d-1, respectively. Several 'ecologically significant units' of Pacific salmon are listed under the Endangered Species Act. The Middle Columbia Steelhead unit is endangered and the adult steelhead spawn in the reach. The reach also supports one of the largest spawning populations of fall chinook salmon in the Northwest. The existence of the major spawning areas in the Hanford Reach has focused considerable attention on their ecological health by the U.S. Department of Energy, other federal and state regulatory agencies, and special interest groups. Dose assessments for developing salmonid embryos were performed for the hypothetical exposure to tritium, strontium-90, technetium-99, iodine-129, and uranium isotopes at specific sites on the Hanford Reach. These early life stages are potentially exposed in some areas of the Hanford Reach to radiological contaminants that enter the river via shoreline seeps and upwelling through the river substrate. At the screening level, one site approached the dose guideline of 10 mGy.d-1 established with the RAD-BCG methodology and exceeded a precautionary benchmark of 2.5 mGy.d-1. Special status of listed species affords these populations more consideration when assessing potential impacts of exposure to radionuclides and other contaminants associated with the Hanford Site operations. The evolution of dose benchmarks for aquatic organisms and consideration of precautionary principal and cumulative impacts are discussed in this paper.

  15. Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... 11/12/2014 Risk Calculator About the Tool Colorectal Cancer Risk Factors Download SAS and Gauss Code Page ... Rectal Cancer: Prevention, Genetics, Causes Tests to Detect Colorectal Cancer and Polyps Cancer Risk Prediction Resources Update November ...

  16. Can systematic reviews inform GMO risk assessment and risk management?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian eKohl

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Systematic reviews represent powerful tools to identify, collect, synthesize and evaluate primary research data on specific research questions in a highly standardized and reproducible manner. They enable the defensible synthesis of outcomes by increasing precision and minimizing bias whilst ensuring transparency of the methods used. This makes them especially valuable to inform evidence-based risk analysis and decision making in various topics and research disciplines. Although seen as a gold standard for synthesizing primary research data, systematic reviews are not without limitations as they are often cost, labor and time intensive and the utility of synthesis outcomes depends upon the availability of sufficient and robust primary research data. In this paper we 1 consider the added value systematic reviews could provide when synthesizing primary research data on genetically modified organisms (GMO and 2 critically assess the adequacy and feasibility of systematic review for collating and analyzing data on potential impacts of GMOs in order to better inform specific steps within GMO risk assessment and risk management. The regulatory framework of the EU is used as an example, although the issues we discuss are likely to be more widely applicable.

  17. Can Systematic Reviews Inform GMO Risk Assessment and Risk Management?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohl, Christian; Frampton, Geoff; Sweet, Jeremy; Spök, Armin; Haddaway, Neal Robert; Wilhelm, Ralf; Unger, Stefan; Schiemann, Joachim

    2015-01-01

    Systematic reviews represent powerful tools to identify, collect, synthesize, and evaluate primary research data on specific research questions in a highly standardized and reproducible manner. They enable the defensible synthesis of outcomes by increasing precision and minimizing bias whilst ensuring transparency of the methods used. This makes them especially valuable to inform evidence-based risk analysis and decision making in various topics and research disciplines. Although seen as a "gold standard" for synthesizing primary research data, systematic reviews are not without limitations as they are often cost, labor and time intensive and the utility of synthesis outcomes depends upon the availability of sufficient and robust primary research data. In this paper, we (1) consider the added value systematic reviews could provide when synthesizing primary research data on genetically modified organisms (GMO) and (2) critically assess the adequacy and feasibility of systematic review for collating and analyzing data on potential impacts of GMOs in order to better inform specific steps within GMO risk assessment and risk management. The regulatory framework of the EU is used as an example, although the issues we discuss are likely to be more widely applicable.

  18. Development and evolution of risk assessment for food allergens

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Crevel, Rene' W. R.; Baumert, Joseph L.; Baka, Athanasia

    2014-01-01

    The need to assess the risk from food allergens derives directly from the need to manage effectively this food safety hazard. Work spanning the last two decades dispelled the initial thinking that food allergens were so unique that the risk they posed was not amenable to established risk assessme...... provided valuable insights, leading to further refinements and generating testable hypotheses. Their application to estimate the risk posed by the concurrent consumption of two potentially contaminated foods illustrates their power....

  19. Radiological safety and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hunter, P.H.; Barg, D.C.; Baird, R.D.; Card, D.H.; de Souza, F.; Elder, J.; Felthauser, K.; Jensen, C.; Winkler, V.

    1982-02-01

    A brief radiological safety and risk assessment of a nuclear power generation center with an adjacent on-site waste disposal facility at a specific site in the State of Utah is presented. The assessment was conducted to assist in determining the feasibility and practicality of developing a nuclear energy center (NEC) in Utah consisting of nine 1250 MWe nuclear pressurized water reactor (PWR) electrical generating units arranged in 3 clusters of 3 units each known as triads. The site selected for this conceptual study is in the Horse Bench area about 15 miles directly south of the town of Green River, Utah. The radiological issues included direct radiation exposures to on-site workers and the off-site population, release of radioactive material, and effects of these releases for both normal operations and accidental occurrences. The basic finding of this study is that the concept of an NEC in the Green River area, specifically at the Horse Bench site, is radiologically feasible

  20. Gender differences in risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christine R. Harris

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available Across many real-world domains, men engage in more risky behaviors than do women. To examine some of the beliefs and preferences that underlie this difference, 657 participants assessed their likelihood of engaging in various risky activities relating to four different domains (gambling, health, recreation, and social, and reported their perceptions of (1 probability of negative outcomes, (2 severity of potential negative outcomes, and (3 enjoyment expected from the risky activities. Women's greater perceived likelihood of negative outcomes and lesser expectation of enjoyment partially mediated their lower propensity toward risky choices in gambling, recreation, and health domains. Perceptions of severity of potential outcomes was a partial mediator in the gambling and health domains. The genders did not differ in their propensity towards taking social risks. A fifth domain of activities associated with high potential payoffs and fixed minor costs was also assessed. In contrast to other domains, women reported being more likely to engage in behaviors in this domain. This gender difference was partially mediated by women's more optimistic judgments of the probability of good outcomes and of

  1. Research into specific risk assessment in project financing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivana Bestvina Bukvić

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available An assessment of investment justification in terms of risk enables the decision maker (investor to select, among available alternatives, the one with the most favourable correlation between the expected profit and assumed risk. At the micro level, the uncertainty of business success is extremely high in production activities, which is an additional incentive for taking a comprehensive approach to the issue of investment decision-making and the development of risk assessment techniques applicable in this particular segment of industry. Given the complexity of the manufacturing process, the length of the production cycle, market conditions, and entity-specific risks (which are difficult to measure, projects in manufacturing industry require a detailed and comprehensive assessment of specific risk factors and their cost-effectiveness. Ne - vertheless, since specific risks can be diversified, investment proposal assessments in practice usually do not cover their quantification and analysis. However, the majority of business entities do not have enough active projects in various industries to be able to fully diversify their business and thus minimize the level of specific risks. The impact of specific factors becomes one of the most important elements for business success. This paper analyses how far risk assessment methods regarding specific risks are used in practice. Furthermore, it analyses the significance of specific risks for total investment risk. This study gives new insi - ghts into the significance of specific risks to the overall investment assessment and the need for permanent development of traditionally used investment assessment models.

  2. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mach, Megan E.; Martone, Rebecca G.; Singh, Gerald G.; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M. A.

    2016-01-01

    The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such “indirect risks” can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their “at-risk status” designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but—by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here—they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within. PMID:27632287

  3. Risk assessment and risk management in managed aquifer recharge

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Page, D

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This chapter presents the methodologies used for risk assessment and risk management in MAR in Australia and the European Union, qualitative and quantitative approaches adopted within the RECLAIM Water project and case studies where the outcomes...

  4. Regional scale ecological risk assessment: using the relative risk model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Landis, Wayne G

    2005-01-01

    ...) in the performance of regional-scale ecological risk assessments. The initial chapters present the methodology and the critical nature of the interaction between risk assessors and decision makers...

  5. Risk assessment for civil engineering facilities: critical overview and discussion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Faber, M.H.; Stewart, M.G.

    2003-01-01

    The present paper should be seen as a basis for discussion of important aspects of risk analysis and assessment, as well as attempting to describe risk assessment in accordance with the present state of the art. Risk assessment is thus presented in an overview form from the viewpoint of being a means for decision-making and thus within the formal framework of decision theory. First the motivation for risk analysis is given and the theoretical basis together with the practical aspects, methodologies and techniques for the implementation of risk assessment in civil engineering applications are explained and discussed. The paper furthermore addresses the problems associated with risk acceptance criteria, risk aversion and value of human life and attempts to provide suggestions for the rational treatment of these aspects. Finally a number of problem areas are highlighted and the needs for further education, research and dissemination are stressed

  6. Probabilistic risk assessment in the nuclear power industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fullwood, R.R.; Hall, R.E.

    1988-01-01

    This book describes the more important improvements in risk assessment methodology developed over the last decade. The book covers the following areas - a general view of risk pertaining to nuclear power, mathematics necessary to understand the text, a concise overview of the light water reactors and their features for protecting the public, probabilities and consequences calculated to form risk assessment to the plant, and 34 applications of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in the power generation industry. There is a glossary of acronyms and unusual words and a list of references. (author)

  7. Risk Measurement and Risk Modelling Using Applications of Vine Copulas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David E. Allen

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper features an application of Regular Vine copulas which are a novel and recently developed statistical and mathematical tool which can be applied in the assessment of composite financial risk. Copula-based dependence modelling is a popular tool in financial applications, but is usually applied to pairs of securities. By contrast, Vine copulas provide greater flexibility and permit the modelling of complex dependency patterns using the rich variety of bivariate copulas which may be arranged and analysed in a tree structure to explore multiple dependencies. The paper features the use of Regular Vine copulas in an analysis of the co-dependencies of 10 major European Stock Markets, as represented by individual market indices and the composite STOXX 50 index. The sample runs from 2005 to the end of 2013 to permit an exploration of how correlations change indifferent economic circumstances using three different sample periods: pre-GFC (January 2005–July 2007, GFC (July 2007– September 2009, and post-GFC periods (September 2009–December 2013. The empirical results suggest that the dependencies change in a complex manner, and are subject to change in different economic circumstances. One of the attractions of this approach to risk modelling is the flexibility in the choice of distributions used to model co-dependencies. The practical application of Regular Vine metrics is demonstrated via an example of the calculation of the VaR of a portfolio made up of the indices.

  8. Promise assessment: A corollary to risk assessment for characterizing benefits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sholtis, J.A. Jr.

    1993-01-01

    Decisions involving the use of hazardous technologies are often made based on risk-benefit considerations. This is the case for U.S. space mission use of nuclear power and propulsion systems, where launch decisions are made within the office of the President. A great deal of time and effort is spent characterizing the risk for each nuclear-powered space mission. However, this is not so for benefits, even though they are no less important. To correct this situation, a new technical term--promise--is defined, and a new methodology--promise assessment--is proposed. This paper introduces and advances this concept, addresses its future application, as a tool, can be developed sufficiently and applied to methodically identify and characterized benefits. Further, it can introduce a degree of balance when judgments concerning the use of hazardous technologies are involved

  9. Risk assessment of metal vapor arcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Monika C. (Inventor); Leidecker, Henning W. (Inventor)

    2009-01-01

    A method for assessing metal vapor arcing risk for a component is provided. The method comprises acquiring a current variable value associated with an operation of the component; comparing the current variable value with a threshold value for the variable; evaluating compared variable data to determine the metal vapor arcing risk in the component; and generating a risk assessment status for the component.

  10. Model of MSD Risk Assessment at Workplace

    OpenAIRE

    K. Sekulová; M. Šimon

    2015-01-01

    This article focuses on upper-extremity musculoskeletal disorders risk assessment model at workplace. In this model are used risk factors that are responsible for musculoskeletal system damage. Based on statistic calculations the model is able to define what risk of MSD threatens workers who are under risk factors. The model is also able to say how MSD risk would decrease if these risk factors are eliminated.

  11. Application of a rule extraction algorithm family based on the Re-RX algorithm to financial credit risk assessment from a Pareto optimal perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoichi Hayashi

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Historically, the assessment of credit risk has proved to be both highly important and extremely difficult. Currently, financial institutions rely on the use of computer-generated credit scores for risk assessment. However, automated risk evaluations are currently imperfect, and the loss of vast amounts of capital could be prevented by improving the performance of computerized credit assessments. A number of approaches have been developed for the computation of credit scores over the last several decades, but these methods have been considered too complex without good interpretability and have therefore not been widely adopted. Therefore, in this study, we provide the first comprehensive comparison of results regarding the assessment of credit risk obtained using 10 runs of 10-fold cross validation of the Re-RX algorithm family, including the Re-RX algorithm, the Re-RX algorithm with both discrete and continuous attributes (Continuous Re-RX, the Re-RX algorithm with J48graft, the Re-RX algorithm with a trained neural network (Sampling Re-RX, NeuroLinear, NeuroLinear+GRG, and three unique rule extraction techniques involving support vector machines and Minerva from four real-life, two-class mixed credit-risk datasets. We also discuss the roles of various newly-extended types of the Re-RX algorithm and high performance classifiers from a Pareto optimal perspective. Our findings suggest that Continuous Re-RX, Re-RX with J48graft, and Sampling Re-RX comprise a powerful management tool that allows the creation of advanced, accurate, concise and interpretable decision support systems for credit risk evaluation. In addition, from a Pareto optimal perspective, the Re-RX algorithm family has superior features in relation to the comprehensibility of extracted rules and the potential for credit scoring with Big Data.

  12. Risk monitor riskangel for risk-informed applications in nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Fang; Wang, Jiaqun; Wang, Jin; Li, Yazhou; Hu, Liqin; Wu, Yican

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A general risk monitor riskangel with high-speed cutsets generator engine. • Benchmarks of actual nuclear power plant (NPP) instantaneous risk models. • Applications in daily operation, maintenance plan and component out of service. - Abstract: This paper studied the requirements of risk monitor software and its applications as a plant specific risk monitor, which supports risk-informed configuration risk management for the two CANDU 6 units at the Third Qinshan nuclear power plant (TQNPP) in China. It also describes the regulatory prospective on risk-informed Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) applications and the use of risk monitor at operating nuclear power plants, high level technical and functional requirements for the development of CANDU specific risk monitor software, and future development trends.

  13. Environmental risk assessment in GMO analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pirondini, Andrea; Marmiroli, Nelson

    2010-01-01

    Genetically modified or engineered organisms (GMOs, GEOs) are utilised in agriculture, expressing traits of interest, such as insect or herbicide resistance. Soybean, maize, cotton and oilseed rape are the GM crops with the largest acreage in the world. The distribution of GM acreage in the different countries is related with the different positions concerning labelling of GMO products: based on the principle of substantial equivalence, or rather based on the precautionary principle. The paper provides an overview on how the risks associated with release of GMO in the environments can be analysed and predicted, in view of a possible coexistence of GM and non-GM organisms in agriculture.Risk assessment procedures, both qualitative and quantitative, are compared in the context of application to GMOs considering also legislation requirements (Directive 2001/18/EC). Criteria and measurable properties to assess harm for human health and environmental safety are listed, and the possible consequences are evaluated in terms of significance.Finally, a mapping of the possible risks deriving from GMO release is reported, focusing on gene transfer to related species, horizontal gene transfer, direct and indirect effects on non target organisms, development of resistance in target organisms, and effects on biodiversity.

  14. Apperception and assessment of technological risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoyos, C.; Hauke, G.

    1986-01-01

    Risk is defined to be the possibility to induce damage or loss. Any person confronted with risk in his activities has to assess the risk in every case. The author explains a number of actions and events that have been worked out to train people in better management of risk, especially in the working environment. (DG) [de

  15. Performing the lockout/tagout risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallace, W Jon

    2007-03-01

    Lockout/tagout provides the greatest level routine, repetitive, and integral to the production process, a risk assessment should be performed. If the task performed poses an unacceptable risk, acceptable risk reduction methods should be implemented to reduce the risk to acceptable levels.

  16. Risk communication in environmental assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rahm-Crites, L. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., Germantown, MD (United States). Washington Operations Office

    1996-08-26

    Since the enactment of NEPA and other environmental legislation, the concept of `risk communication` has expanded from simply providing citizens with scientific information about risk to exploring ways of making risk information genuinely meaningful to the public and facilitating public involvement in the very processes whereby risk is analyzed and managed. Contemporary risk communication efforts attempt to find more effective ways of conveying increasingly complex risk information and to develop more democratic and proactive approaches to community involvement, in particular to ensuring the participation of diverse populations in risk decisions. Although considerable progress has been made in a relatively short time, risk communication researchers and practitioners currently face a number of challenges in a time of high expectations, low trust, and low budgets.

  17. Thyroid Cancer Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    The R package thyroid implements a risk prediction model developed by NCI researchers to calculate the absolute risk of developing a second primary thyroid cancer (SPTC) in individuals who were diagnosed with a cancer during their childhood.

  18. Development and trial application of risk information

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-08-15

    JNES has been doing various activities to stimulate the introduction of Risk Informed Regulation (RIR) to the safety regulation of nuclear power plants (NPPs) in Japan. Some applications are already incorporated, such as the regulatory review of Maintenance Programs and Safety Significance Evaluation for Inspection Findings. In consideration with the experience of the accident in Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station, JNES addressed development of regulatory guidelines, evaluation of the current condition of Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station, evaluation of effectiveness of severe accident management measures with the backgrounds of insights and experiences on probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and RIR. Especially, the experiences were applied to the development of the methodologies for evaluation of effectiveness of severe accident managements. As for inspection and operation of NPPs, JNES enhanced the PRA scope applied to the importance analysis for Maintenance Program, SDP and RI-ISI in consideration with the insights of RIR in Japan and other countries. (author)

  19. INCORPORATING NONCHEMICAL STRESSORS INTO CUMMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENTS

    Science.gov (United States)

    The risk assessment paradigm has begun to shift from assessing single chemicals using "reasonable worst case" assumptions for individuals to considering multiple chemicals and community-based models. Inherent in community-based risk assessment is examination of all stressors a...

  20. Bioavailability in ecological risk. Assessment for radionuclides

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garnier-Laplace, J.; Gilbin, R.; Della-Vedova, C.; Adam, C.; Simon, O.; Denison, F.; Beaugelin, K.

    2005-01-01

    The guidance for performing Ecological Risk Assessments (ERA) in Europe has been published in 2003 in the EC's Technical Guidance Document. This document constitutes the official reference in which current water quality standards and risk assessment approach for metals/metalloids are still mainly based on total or dissolved concentrations. However, it has been recognized that accurate assessment of the bio-available metal fraction is crucial, even if the way to incorporate bioavailability into these procedures is still under discussion. The speciation of a pollutant in the exposure medium is the first factor that regulates its bioavailability and consequently its bioaccumulation and the induced biological effects. Therefore, within any ecological risk assessment, bioavailability has obvious implications: firstly in exposure analysis which aim is to determine Predicted Exposure Concentration (PEC); secondly in effect analysis while deriving the so-called Predicted No-Effect Concentrations (PNEC) as toxicity is often linked to the amount of the contaminant incorporated into the tissues of biota. Similarities between metals/metalloids and radionuclides are limited to the biogeochemical behaviour of the element considered and to the need to use bioavailability models. In addition, for radionuclides, emitted ionising radiations (type and energy) need to be taken into account for both exposure and effect analyses whilst performing dosimetric calculations appropriate to the exposure scenarios. A methodology for properly implementing bioavailability models is explained and illustrated for aqueous U(VI), starting from a comprehensive review of the thermodynamic data relevant to environmentally-realistic physico-chemical conditions. Then, the use of thermodynamic equilibrium modelling as a tool for interpreting the bioavailability of U(VI) is presented. Using a systematic approach, different bioavailability models of increasing complexity were tested to model U bio

  1. [Urban ecological risk assessment: a review].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Mei-E; Chen, Wei-Ping; Peng, Chi

    2014-03-01

    With the development of urbanization and the degradation of urban living environment, urban ecological risks caused by urbanization have attracted more and more attentions. Based on urban ecology principles and ecological risk assessment frameworks, contents of urban ecological risk assessment were reviewed in terms of driven forces, risk resources, risk receptors, endpoints and integrated approaches for risk assessment. It was suggested that types and degrees of urban economical and social activities were the driven forces for urban ecological risks. Ecological functional components at different levels in urban ecosystems as well as the urban system as a whole were the risk receptors. Assessment endpoints involved in changes of urban ecological structures, processes, functional components and the integrity of characteristic and function. Social-ecological models should be the major approaches for urban ecological risk assessment. Trends for urban ecological risk assessment study should focus on setting a definite protection target and criteria corresponding to assessment endpoints, establishing a multiple-parameter assessment system and integrative assessment approaches.

  2. Colon Cancer Risk Assessment - Gauss Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    An executable file (in GAUSS) that projects absolute colon cancer risk (with confidence intervals) according to NCI’s Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (CCRAT) algorithm. GAUSS is not needed to run the program.

  3. Risk assessment - black art or science?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moore, G.

    1988-01-01

    Measures of risk can be divided into two categories, those that observe or calculate the risk of a process or project, and those that rely on the level of risk as perceived by the people during the assessment. Collection of data of accidents (where cause and effect are obvious) and experiments on animals which can then be extrapolated to humans, are two ways of risk assessment. Mathematical models and computerized simulations, using either fault tree analysis or Monte Carlo methods are explained simply. Using these methods, experts are able to perceive risk fairly realistically. However, the general public's perception of risk is often quite different, as potential risk is assessed in different ways. The concept of tolerable risk is considered, particularly with reference to nuclear reactors such as Sizewell-B. The need to inform the public of safeguards and safety procedures so they have a better understanding of the risks of nuclear power is stressed. (U.K.)

  4. Facts and values in risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cross, Frank B.

    1998-01-01

    Risk, as commonly understood, is a complex melange of facts, values, and fears. While this complexity of public risk perception is now broadly recognized, its implications are insufficiently explored. Public risk perceptions offer p poor guide for public policymaking. Popular assessments of risk are tainted by misinformation and unreliable heuristics. While subjective considerations, often called values, play a role in public perception of risk, those 'values' are often inappropriate for government decisionmaking. Reliance on public perceptions of risk means more premature deaths. Public risk perception also is systematically skewed contrary to the interests of the disadvantaged. Strict probabilistic risk measures generally provide a superior guide for government regulatory policy

  5. Recommendations for benefit-risk assessment methodologies and visual representations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hughes, Diana; Waddingham, Ed; Mt-Isa, Shahrul

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE: The purpose of this study is to draw on the practical experience from the PROTECT BR case studies and make recommendations regarding the application of a number of methodologies and visual representations for benefit-risk assessment. METHODS: Eight case studies based on the benefit......-risk balance of real medicines were used to test various methodologies that had been identified from the literature as having potential applications in benefit-risk assessment. Recommendations were drawn up based on the results of the case studies. RESULTS: A general pathway through the case studies...

  6. Life Cycle Assessment and Risk Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Stig Irving

    Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a tool for environmental assessment of product and systems – over the whole life cycle from acquisition of raw materials to the end-of-life of the product – and encompassing all environmental impacts of emissions and resource usage, e.g. global warming, acidification...... cycle. The models for assessing toxic impacts in LCA are to a large extent based on those developed for RA, e.g. EUSES, and require basic information about the inherent properties of the emissions like solubility, LogKow,ED50 etc. Additionally, it is a prerequisite to know how to characterize...

  7. Risk assessment of safety violations for coal mines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Megan Orsulaka; Vladislav Kecojevicb; Larry Graysona; Antonio Nietoa [Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA (United States). Dept of Energy and Mineral Engineering

    2010-09-15

    This article presents an application of a risk assessment approach in characterising the risks associated with safety violations in underground bituminous mines in Pennsylvania using the Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA) citation database. The MSHA database on citations provides an opportunity to assess risks in mines through scrutiny of violations of mandatory safety standards. In this study, quantitative risk assessment is performed, which allows determination of the frequency of occurrence of safety violations (through associated citations) as well as the consequences of them in terms of penalty assessments. Focus is on establishing risk matrices on citation experiences of mines, which can give early indication of emerging potentially serious problems. The resulting frequency, consequence and risk rankings present valuable tools for prioritising resource allocations, determining control strategies, and could potentially contribute to more proactive prevention of incidents and injuries.

  8. Development and application of terrestrial food-chain models to assess health risks to man from releases of pollutants to the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaye, S.V.; Hoffman, O.; McDowell-Boyer, L.M.; Baes, C.F.

    1982-01-01

    The paper reviews development and application of mathematical models used to predict the terrestrial food-chain transport of pollutants of potential importance to human health. A distinction is made between models developed specifically for assessment applications and models which may function as research tools. Differentiation is also made between models whose structure is based on steady-state relationships among food-chain compartments and dynamic models developed to simulate food-chain and pollutant kinetics. The strengths and weaknesses of these models are related to the needs of the model-user, the availability of relevant data for parameter quantification, and the feasibility for model validation. For assessment purposes, an optimum level of structural complexity will be achieved when all parameters are readily measurable and predictive error due to unforeseen correlations among parameters is small. The optimum level of simplification, however, will be determined by model validation results and the ease of model implementation. Most examples are derived from models used to assess the terrestrial food-chain transport of radionuclides because assessment methodologies for other types of pollutants are only at an early stage of development. It is concluded that current limitations in parameter quantification and model validation will probably restrict most assessment applications of terrestrial food-chain models to a type of screening calculation. However, once pollutant releases actually occur, environmental monitoring will be necessary to ensure that potential model misprediction does not result in unacceptable consequences. (author)

  9. Development and application of terrestrial food chain models to assess health risks to man and releases of pollutants to the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaye, S.V.; Hoffman, F.O.; McDowell-Boyer, L.M.; Baes, C.F.

    1981-01-01

    This paper reviews the development and application of mathematical models used to predict the terrestrial food chain transport of pollutants of potential importance to human health. A distinction is made between models developed specifically for assessment applications and models which may function as research tools. Differentiation is also made between models whose structure is based on steady-state relationships among food chain compartments and dynamic models developed to simulate food chain and pollutant kinetics. The strengths and weaknesses of these models are related to the needs of the model user, the availability of relevant data for parameter quantification, and the feasibility for model validation. For assessment purposes, an optimum level of structural complexity will be achieved when all parameters are readily measurable and predictive error due to unforeseen correlations among parameters is small. The optimum level of simplification, however, will be determined by model validation results and the ease of model implementation. Most examples are derived from models used to assess the terrestrial food chain transport of radionuclides because assessment methodologies for other types of pollutants are only at an early stage of development. It is concluded that current limitations in parameter quantification and model validation will probably restrict most assessment applications of terrestrial food chain models to a type of screening calculation. However, once pollutant releases actually occur, environmental monitoring will be necessary to ensure that potential model misprediction does not result in unacceptable consequences

  10. Security Assessment of Web Based Distributed Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catalin BOJA

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an overview about the evaluation of risks and vulnerabilities in a web based distributed application by emphasizing aspects concerning the process of security assessment with regards to the audit field. In the audit process, an important activity is dedicated to the measurement of the characteristics taken into consideration for evaluation. From this point of view, the quality of the audit process depends on the quality of assessment methods and techniques. By doing a review of the fields involved in the research process, the approach wants to reflect the main concerns that address the web based distributed applications using exploratory research techniques. The results show that many are the aspects which must carefully be worked with, across a distributed system and they can be revealed by doing a depth introspective analyze upon the information flow and internal processes that are part of the system. This paper reveals the limitations of a non-existing unified security risk assessment model that could prevent such risks and vulnerabilities debated. Based on such standardize models, secure web based distributed applications can be easily audited and many vulnerabilities which can appear due to the lack of access to information can be avoided.

  11. Modeling for operational event risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sattison, M.B.

    1997-01-01

    The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission has been using risk models to evaluate the risk significance of operational events in U.S. commercial nuclear power plants for more seventeen years. During that time, the models have evolved in response to the advances in risk assessment technology and insights gained with experience. Evaluation techniques fall into two categories, initiating event assessments and condition assessments. The models used for these analyses have become uniquely specialized for just this purpose

  12. RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oksana G. Feoktistova

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate precautionary measures will allow airlines to avoid incidents leading to drastic consequences for staff, as well as to direct and indirect costs for the enterprise among which there could be singled out both direct property damage and loss of profit and expenses connected to incident investigation, penalty and compensation payment, loss of business reputation and so on. To reduce the rate of accidents and to develop safe activities skills for airlines staff a risk assessment chart is supposed to be implemented, which will be an efficient accidents prevention involving the staff in the process and making them follow safe working conditions.Process risk assessment is an integral part of assessment of the whole enterprise activity and work efficiency of a department and particular workers evaluation system. Labour protection activity should be based on risk identification and its control. Risk assessment is a keystone of labour protection activity planning.

  13. Advanced Test Reactor outage risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thatcher, T.A.; Atkinson, S.A.

    1997-01-01

    Beginning in 1997, risk assessment was performed for each Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) outage aiding the coordination of plant configuration and work activities (maintenance, construction projects, etc.) to minimize the risk of reactor fuel damage and to improve defense-in-depth. The risk assessment activities move beyond simply meeting Technical Safety Requirements to increase the awareness of risk sensitive configurations, to focus increased attention on the higher risk activities, and to seek cost-effective design or operational changes that reduce risk. A detailed probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) had been performed to assess the risk of fuel damage during shutdown operations including heavy load handling. This resulted in several design changes to improve safety; however, evaluation of individual outages had not been performed previously and many risk insights were not being utilized in outage planning. The shutdown PRA provided the necessary framework for assessing relative and absolute risk levels and assessing defense-in-depth. Guidelines were written identifying combinations of equipment outages to avoid. Screening criteria were developed for the selection of work activities to receive review. Tabulation of inherent and work-related initiating events and their relative risk level versus plant mode has aided identification of the risk level the scheduled work involves. Preoutage reviews are conducted and post-outage risk assessment is documented to summarize the positive and negative aspects of the outage with regard to risk. The risk for the outage is compared to the risk level that would result from optimal scheduling of the work to be performed and to baseline or average past performance

  14. Improving the analysis of social component of flash-floods risk assessment: Application to urban areas of Castilla y León (Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aroca Jimenez, Estefanía; Bodoque del Pozo, Jose Maria; Garcia Martin, Juan Antonio; Diez Herrero, Andres

    2016-04-01

    The increasing evidence of anthropogenic climate change, the respective intensification of extreme events as well as the increase in human exposure to natural hazards and their vulnerability show that the enhancement of strategies on how to reduce disaster risk and promote adaptation to extreme events is critical to increase resilience. Growing economic losses, high numbers of casualties and the disruption of livelihoods in various places of the world, at an even higher rate than the increase of magnitude and frequency of extreme events, underline that the vulnerability of societies exposed is a key aspect to be considered. Social vulnerability characterizes the predisposition of society to be afflicted by hazards such as floods, being flash floods one of the hazards with the greatest capacity to generate risk. Despite its importance, social vulnerability is often a neglected aspect of traditional risk assessments which mainly focus on economic and structural measures. The aim of this research is to identify those social characteristics which render people vulnerable to flash flood hazards, and consider whether these characteristics are identifiable as local patterns at regional level. The result of this task is a Social Susceptibility Index (SSI) based on susceptibility profiles of the population per township. These profiles are obtained by Hierarchical Segmentation and Latent Class Analysis of demographic and socio-economic information provided by different public organisms. By adding exposure information to SSI, a Social and Infraestructure Flood Vulnerability Index (SIFVI) is created. The methodology proposed here is implemented in the region of Castilla y León (94,226 km2). Townships that are included in this study meet two requirements: i) city centres are affected by an area where potential significant flash-flood risk exists (i.e. villages are crossed by rivers with a longitudinal slope higher than 0.01); ii) city centres are affected by an area with low

  15. Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Monika C.; Leidecker, Henning W.

    2010-01-01

    The Tin Whisker Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool has been designed to evaluate the risk of metal vapor arcing and to help facilitate a decision toward a researched risk disposition. Users can evaluate a system without having to open up the hardware. This process allows for investigating components at risk rather than spending time and money analyzing every component. The tool points to a risk level and provides direction for appropriate action and documentation.

  16. Energy and environment: Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Colombo, U.

    1993-01-01

    Two problems connected to the concept of 'risk' were analyzed: nuclear power production and global climate changes. In fact, nuclear power, despite of the risk management of the plants, does not produce gaseous emissions and can be used to reduce environmental risks. Even if a cost benefit analysis of nuclear power is very difficult, to perform it is author's opinion that, very probably, industrial countries will continue to use this form of energy

  17. CEA: risk management assessment 2011

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bigot, Bernard; Bonnevie, Edwige; Maillot, Bernard

    2012-01-01

    This report proposes a qualitative and quantitative overview of CEA activities in the field of risk management during 2011. These activities concerned the impact on the environment, the safety of installations, the management of professional risks (safety and health at work), the radiological protection of workers, the transports of hazardous materials, waste management, protection of sites, installations and heritage, the management of emergency situations, the management of law risks, controls and audits

  18. CEA - 2014 risk management assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bonnevie, Edwige; Verwaerde, Daniel; Maillot, Bernard

    2015-06-01

    After introducing presentations of CEA managers in charge of risk management and controls, this document presents and comments the actions undertaken by the CEA and the obtained results in terms of risk management in different fields: protection and control of the environment, installation safety, health, safety and radiation protection, transport of hazardous materials, waste management, protection of sites, installations and heritage, management of emergency situations, management of legal risks, internal audits and controls. Other topics are addressed like the presentation of the risk management department, and the role of the CEA in the relationship between research and industry

  19. Environmental Comparative Risk Assessment: A Case Study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ali, M.M.

    2007-01-01

    Health and environmental impacts associated with energy production and industrial activities as well as food production and agricultural activities have had great concern in the last decades. Early activities emerged in late 80s of the last century through an Inter- Agency project (lAEA, UNDY, WHO, ... ) on the comparative risk assessment from energy systems and industrial complexes. A work-shop on Risk Assessment and Management in large industrial areas was held in Alexandria Egypt on 20-33 Det 1993, sponsored by IAEA. Several conferences, experts work groups and workshops were held there of Recent trends in determining risks are: 1. Use of probabilistic risk assessment approach to identify hazardous activities and accident scenario. 2. development of data base on failure probabilities and appropriate physical models. 3. Development of related directives and regulations and criteria Comparative risk assessment case study as a tool for comparing risk is emphasized Criteria of exposure to human and ecological risks are addressed

  20. Revised Human Health Risk Assessment on Chlorpyrifos

    Science.gov (United States)

    We have revised our human health risk assessment and drinking water exposure assessment for chlorpyrifos that supported our October 2015 proposal to revoke all food residue tolerances for chlorpyrifos. Learn about the revised analysis.

  1. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Tutorial - Primer

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document provides a Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) primer that organizes QMRA tutorials. The tutorials describe functionality of a QMRA infrastructure, guide the user through software use and assessment options, provide step-by-step instructions for implementi...

  2. Route assessment using comparative risk factors integrated through a GIS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toth, D.M.; O'Connell, W.J.

    1996-01-01

    The assessment of potential alternative routes for the shipment of spent nuclear fuel was simplified through the use of comparative risk factors evaluated using detailed route and environmental attributes. The route characteristics, integrated into risk measures, vary strongly with location and were developed from national, state, and local sources. The route data and evaluation were managed using a geographic information system (GIS). An assessment of four real North Florida routes was performed and an interstate highway route exhibited the lowest risk based on the application of the risk factors

  3. Comparative Risk Assessment to Inform Adaptation Priorities for the Natural Environment: Observations from the First UK Climate Change Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iain Brown

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment can potentially provide an objective framework to synthesise and prioritise climate change risks to inform adaptation policy. However, there are significant challenges in the application of comparative risk assessment procedures to climate change, particularly for the natural environment. These challenges are evaluated with particular reference to the first statutory Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA and evidence review procedures used to guide policy for the UK government. More progress was achieved on risk identification, screening and prioritisation compared to risk quantification. This was due to the inherent complexity and interdependence of ecological risks and their interaction with socio-economic drivers as well as a climate change. Robust strategies to manage risk were identified as those that coordinate organisational resources to enhance ecosystem resilience, and to accommodate inevitable change, rather than to meet specific species or habitats targets. The assessment also highlighted subjective and contextual components of risk appraisal including ethical issues regarding the level of human intervention in the natural environment and the proposed outcomes of any intervention. This suggests that goals for risk assessment need to be more clearly explicated and assumptions on tolerable risk declared as a primer for further dialogue on expectations for managed outcomes. Ecosystem-based adaptation may mean that traditional habitats and species conservation goals and existing regulatory frameworks no longer provide the best guide for long-term risk management thereby challenging the viability of some existing practices.

  4. Network Vulnerability and Risk Assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Alward, Randy G; Carley, Kathleen M; Madsen, Fredrik; Taylor, Vincent K; Vandenberghe, Grant

    2006-01-01

    .... The break out group discussed vulnerability presentation needs common across various application domains, particularly in support of network discovery and network analysis tasks in those domains...

  5. Information security risk assessment, aggregation, and mitigation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lenstra, A.K.; Voss, T.; Wang, H.; Pieprzyk, J.; Varadharajan, V.

    2004-01-01

    As part of their compliance process with the Basel 2 operational risk management requirements, banks must define how they deal with information security risk management. In this paper we describe work in progress on a new quantitative model to assess and aggregate information security risks that is

  6. Genetic toxicology and cancer risk assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Choy, Wai Nang

    2001-01-01

    ... their risks to humans are obvious goals for the protection of public health. When exposure is unavoidable, an accurate estimation of human risk as a result of exposure is essential for making regulatory decisions. Quantitative cancer risk assessment is an intricate process that utilizes knowledge from many different scien...

  7. Bahia State, Brazil : Ariculture Sector Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Arias, Diego; Caballero, Jorge

    2015-01-01

    The present study is part of an effort by the World Bank and the State of Bahia to assess agriculture sector risks as a contribution to the strategic economic development and poverty reduction agenda of the state government. It is composed of two phases: an agricultural sector risk identification and prioritization (volume one) and a risk management strategy and action plan (volume two). T...

  8. Low-frequency fields - health risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernhardt, J.

    1993-01-01

    The author briefly reviews the biological actions and effects of low-frequency fields, epidemiological studies and discusses health risks in detail. He describes the assessment principles of the International Commission on Non-ionizing Radiation Protection (ICNIRP), medical principles for risk assessment, determination of limits and thesholds, and aspects of prevention. This is supplemented to by several fables and literature list. (Uhe) [de

  9. Evaluation of a constipation risk assessment scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zernike, W; Henderson, A

    1999-06-01

    This project was undertaken in order to evaluate the utility of a constipation risk assessment scale and the accompanying bowel management protocol. The risk assessment scale was primarily introduced to teach and guide staff in managing constipation when caring for patients. The intention of the project was to reduce the incidence of constipation in patients during their admission to hospital.

  10. Recovery in environmental risk assessment at EFSA

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brock, T.C.M.

    2016-01-01

    EFSA performs environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for single potential stressors such as plant protection products, genetically modified organisms and feed additives and for invasive alien species that are harmful for plant health. In this risk assessment domain, the EFSA Scientific Committee

  11. Explaining probalistic risk assessment in common language

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wong, J.W.

    1994-01-01

    Probabilistic human health risk assessment is explained in ordinary language using a hypothetical example and the ingestion equation from EPA's Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund. A section on understanding probabilities and probability distributions used in a Monte Carlo simulation is included as well as an appendix showing the computer run and the technical assumptions behind it

  12. Aquatic Macrophyte Risk Assessment for Pesticides

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maltby, L.; Arnold, D.; Arts, G.H.P.; Davies, J.; Heimbach, F.; Pickl, C.; Poulsen, V.

    2009-01-01

    Given the essential role that primary producers play in aquatic ecosystems, it is imperative that the potential risk of pesticides to the structure and functioning of aquatic plants is adequately assessed. This book discusses the assessment of the risk of pesticides with herbicidal activity to

  13. Innovative human health and ecological risk assessment techniques at Hanford

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clarke, S.; Jones, K.; Goller, E.

    1993-01-01

    The open-quotes Hanford Site Baseline Risk Assessment Methodologyclose quotes (HSBRAM) was developed to enhance the preparation of risk assessments supporting the Hanford site cleanup mission. This methodology satisfies a Hanford federal facility agreement and consent order (tri-party agreement) milestone and is used to evaluate the risk to human health and the environment under the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA). The methodology was prepared by the Hanford Risk Assessment Committee (RAC) consisting of tri-party representatives: the U.S. Department of Energy, the State of Washington Department of Ecology, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), with associated contractors. The risk assessment guidance provided by EPA is sufficiently general to permit tailoring of specific parameters to meet the risk assessment needs of individual sites. The RAC utilized EPA's Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund, (RAGS) as the cornerstone of the HSBRAM. The RAC added necessary Hanford-specific elements to construct a complete risk assessment guidance for utilization as an independent document. The HSBRAM is a living document because the RAC charter emphasizes the importance of continued methodology reevaluation. The HSBRAM also provides guidelines for the application of EPA's open-quotes Framework for Ecological Risk Assessmentclose quotes to Hanford-specific environmental baseline risk assessments by including endangered and threatened species in addition to sensitive habitats potentially associated with the Hanford site and guidance for selection of ecotoxicological data. Separate negotiations for the selection of risk parameters for each operable unit were avoided by defining parameters in the HSBRAM. There are 78 past-practice operable units at Hanford requiring risk assessments

  14. Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-03-01

    This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and environmental evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act remedial investigations (RIs) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act facility investigations (FIs) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambi