WorldWideScience

Sample records for risk assessment analysis

  1. Overcoming barriers to integrating economic analysis into risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffmann, Sandra

    2011-09-01

    Regulatory risk analysis is designed to provide decisionmakers with a clearer understanding of how policies are likely to affect risk. The systems that produce risk are biological, physical, and social and economic. As a result, risk analysis is an inherently interdisciplinary task. Yet in practice, risk analysis has been interdisciplinary in only limited ways. Risk analysis could provide more accurate assessments of risk if there were better integration of economics and other social sciences into risk assessment itself. This essay examines how discussions about risk analysis policy have influenced the roles of various disciplines in risk analysis. It explores ways in which integrated bio/physical-economic modeling could contribute to more accurate assessments of risk. It reviews examples of the kind of integrated economics-bio/physical modeling that could be used to enhance risk assessment. The essay ends with a discussion of institutional barriers to greater integration of economic modeling into risk assessment and provides suggestions on how these might be overcome. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  2. Safety analysis, risk assessment, and risk acceptance criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jamali, K.

    1997-01-01

    This paper discusses a number of topics that relate safety analysis as documented in the Department of Energy (DOE) safety analysis reports (SARs), probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) as characterized primarily in the context of the techniques that have assumed some level of formality in commercial nuclear power plant applications, and risk acceptance criteria as an outgrowth of PRA applications. DOE SARs of interest are those that are prepared for DOE facilities under DOE Order 5480.23 and the implementing guidance in DOE STD-3009-94. It must be noted that the primary area of application for DOE STD-3009 is existing DOE facilities and that certain modifications of the STD-3009 approach are necessary in SARs for new facilities. Moreover, it is the hazard analysis (HA) and accident analysis (AA) portions of these SARs that are relevant to the present discussions. Although PRAs can be qualitative in nature, PRA as used in this paper refers more generally to all quantitative risk assessments and their underlying methods. HA as used in this paper refers more generally to all qualitative risk assessments and their underlying methods that have been in use in hazardous facilities other than nuclear power plants. This discussion includes both quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methods. PRA has been used, improved, developed, and refined since the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) was published in 1975 by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Much debate has ensued since WASH-1400 on exactly what the role of PRA should be in plant design, reactor licensing, 'ensuring' plant and process safety, and a large number of other decisions that must be made for potentially hazardous activities. Of particular interest in this area is whether the risks quantified using PRA should be compared with numerical risk acceptance criteria (RACs) to determine whether a facility is 'safe.' Use of RACs requires quantitative estimates of consequence frequency and magnitude

  3. Safety analysis and risk assessment handbook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, V.L.; Colwell, R.G.; Dickey, R.L.

    1997-01-01

    This Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) provides guidance to the safety analyst at the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site (RFETS) in the preparation of safety analyses and risk assessments. Although the older guidance (the Rocky Flats Risk Assessment Guide) continues to be used for updating the Final Safety Analysis Reports developed in the mid-1980s, this new guidance is used with all new authorization basis documents. With the mission change at RFETS came the need to establish new authorization basis documents for its facilities, whose functions had changed. The methodology and databases for performing the evaluations that support the new authorization basis documents had to be standardized, to avoid the use of different approaches and/or databases for similar accidents in different facilities. This handbook presents this new standardized approach. The handbook begins with a discussion of the requirements of the different types of authorization basis documents and how to choose the one appropriate for the facility to be evaluated. It then walks the analyst through the process of identifying all the potential hazards in the facility, classifying them, and choosing the ones that need to be analyzed further. It then discusses the methods for evaluating accident initiation and progression and covers the basic steps in a safety analysis, including consequence and frequency binning and risk ranking. The handbook lays out standardized approaches for determining the source terms of the various accidents (including airborne release fractions, leakpath factors, etc.), the atmospheric dispersion factors appropriate for Rocky Flats, and the methods for radiological and chemical consequence assessments. The radiological assessments use a radiological open-quotes templateclose quotes, a spreadsheet that incorporates the standard values of parameters, whereas the chemical assessments use the standard codes ARCHIE and ALOHA

  4. Analysis of Alternatives for Risk Assessment Methodologies and Tools

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nachtigal, Noel M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). System Analytics; Fruetel, Julia A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Gleason, Nathaniel J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Helms, Jovana [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Imbro, Dennis Raymond [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Sumner, Matthew C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis

    2013-10-01

    The purpose of this document is to provide a basic overview and understanding of risk assessment methodologies and tools from the literature and to assess the suitability of these methodologies and tools for cyber risk assessment. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) performed this review in support of risk modeling activities performed for the Stakeholder Engagement and Cyber Infrastructure Resilience (SECIR) division of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Office of Cybersecurity and Communications (CS&C). The set of methodologies and tools covered in this document is not intended to be exhaustive; instead, it focuses on those that are commonly used in the risk assessment community. The classification of methodologies and tools was performed by a group of analysts with experience in risk analysis and cybersecurity, and the resulting analysis of alternatives has been tailored to address the needs of a cyber risk assessment.

  5. Flood Risk Assessment Based On Security Deficit Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beck, J.; Metzger, R.; Hingray, B.; Musy, A.

    Risk is a human perception: a given risk may be considered as acceptable or unac- ceptable depending on the group that has to face that risk. Flood risk analysis of- ten estimates economic losses from damages, but neglects the question of accept- able/unacceptable risk. With input from land use managers, politicians and other stakeholders, risk assessment based on security deficit analysis determines objects with unacceptable risk and their degree of security deficit. Such a risk assessment methodology, initially developed by the Swiss federal authorities, is illustrated by its application on a reach of the Alzette River (Luxembourg) in the framework of the IRMA-SPONGE FRHYMAP project. Flood risk assessment always involves a flood hazard analysis, an exposed object vulnerability analysis, and an analysis combing the results of these two previous analyses. The flood hazard analysis was done with the quasi-2D hydraulic model FldPln to produce flood intensity maps. Flood intensity was determined by the water height and velocity. Object data for the vulnerability analysis, provided by the Luxembourg government, were classified according to their potential damage. Potential damage is expressed in terms of direct, human life and secondary losses. A thematic map was produced to show the object classification. Protection goals were then attributed to the object classes. Protection goals are assigned in terms of an acceptable flood intensity for a certain flood frequency. This is where input from land use managers and politicians comes into play. The perception of risk in the re- gion or country influences the protection goal assignment. Protection goals as used in Switzerland were used in this project. Thematic maps showing the protection goals of each object in the case study area for a given flood frequency were produced. Com- parison between an object's protection goal and the intensity of the flood that touched the object determine the acceptability of the risk and the

  6. Supplemental Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment - Hydrotreater

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lowry, Peter P. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wagner, Katie A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-04-01

    A supplemental hazard analysis was conducted and quantitative risk assessment performed in response to an independent review comment received by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) from the U.S. Department of Energy Pacific Northwest Field Office (PNSO) against the Hydrotreater/Distillation Column Hazard Analysis Report issued in April 2013. The supplemental analysis used the hazardous conditions documented by the previous April 2013 report as a basis. The conditions were screened and grouped for the purpose of identifying whether additional prudent, practical hazard controls could be identified, using a quantitative risk evaluation to assess the adequacy of the controls and establish a lower level of concern for the likelihood of potential serious accidents. Calculations were performed to support conclusions where necessary.

  7. Quantitative risk assessment using the capacity-demand analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morgenroth, M.; Donnelly, C.R.; Westermann, G.D.; Huang, J.H.S.; Lam, T.M.

    1999-01-01

    The hydroelectric industry's recognition of the importance of avoiding unexpected failure, or forced outages, led to the development of probabilistic, or risk-based, methods in order to attempt to quantify exposures. Traditionally, such analysis has been carried out by qualitative assessments, relying on experience and sound engineering judgment to determine the optimum time to maintain, repair or replace a part or system. Depending on the nature of the problem, however, and the level of experience of those included in the decision making process, it is difficult to find a balance between acting proactively and accepting some amount of risk. The development of a practical means for establishing the probability of failure of any part or system, based on the determination of the statistical distribution of engineering properties such as acting stresses, is discussed. The capacity-demand analysis methodology, coupled with probablistic, risk-based analysis, permits all the factors associated with a decision to rehabilitate or replace a part, including the risks associated with the timing of the decision, to be assessed in a transparent and defendable manner. The methodology does not eliminate judgment altogether, but does move it from the level of estimating the risk of failure to the lower level of estimating variability in material properties, uncertainty in loading, and the uncertainties inherent in any engineering analysis. The method was successfully used in 1998 to carry out a comprehensive, economic risk analysis for the entire water conveyance system of a 90 year old hydropower station. The analysis included a number of diverse parts ranging from rock slopes and aging steel and concrete conduits, and the method allowed a rational assessment of the risks associated with reach of these varied parts to be determined, permitting the essential remedial works to be prioritized. 14 refs., 4 figs

  8. Challenges in Risk Assessment: Quantitative Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Uyttendaele, Mieke; De Meulenaer, Bruno

    2016-01-01

    The process of risk analysis consists out of three components, risk assessment, risk management and risk communication. These components are internationally well spread by Codex Alimentarius Commission as being the basis for setting science based standards, criteria on food safety hazards, e.g. setting maximum limits of mycotoxins in foodstuffs. However, the technical component risk assessment is hard to elaborate and to understand. Key in a risk assessment is the translation of biological or...

  9. Analysis of risk assessment methods for goods trucking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunyazova A.O.

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available the article considers models of risk assessment that can be applied to cargo transportation, for forecasting possible damage in the form of financial and material costs in order to reduce the percentage of probability of their occurrence. The analysis of risk by the method «Criterion. Event. Rule" is represented. This method is based on the collection of information by various methods, assigning an assessment to the identified risks, ranking and formulating a report on the analysis. It can be carried out as a fully manual mechanical method of information collecting and performing calculations or can be brought to an automated level from data collection to the delivery of finished results (but in this case some nuances that could significantly influence the outcome of the analysis can be ignored. The expert method is of particular importance, since it relies directly on human experience. In this case, a special role is played by the human factor. The collection of information and the assigned assessments to risk groups depend on the extent to which experts agree on this issue. The smaller the fluctuations in the values ​​of the estimates of the experts, the more accurate and optimal the results will be.

  10. Applying Multi-Criteria Analysis Methods for Fire Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pushkina Julia

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to prove the application of multi-criteria analysis methods for optimisation of fire risk identification and assessment process. The object of this research is fire risk and risk assessment. The subject of the research is studying the application of analytic hierarchy process for modelling and influence assessment of various fire risk factors. Results of research conducted by the authors can be used by insurance companies to perform the detailed assessment of fire risks on the object and to calculate a risk extra charge to an insurance premium; by the state supervisory institutions to determine the compliance of a condition of object with requirements of regulations; by real state owners and investors to carry out actions for decrease in degree of fire risks and minimisation of possible losses.

  11. Assessment report on NRP sub-theme 'Risk Analysis'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Biesiot, W.; Hendrickx, L.; Olsthoorn, A.A.

    1995-01-01

    An overview and assessment are presented of the three research projects carried out under NRP funding that concern risk-related topics: (1) The risks of nonlinear climate changes, (2) Socio-economic and policy aspects of changes in incidence and intensity of extreme (weather) events, and (3) Characterizing the risks: a comparative analysis of the risks of global warming and of relevant policy strategies. 1 tab., 6 refs

  12. Urban flooding and health risk analysis by use of quantitative microbial risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Signe Tanja

    D thesis is to identify the limitations and possibilities for optimising microbial risk assessments of urban flooding through more evidence-based solutions, including quantitative microbial data and hydrodynamic water quality models. The focus falls especially on the problem of data needs and the causes......, but also when wading through a flooded area. The results in this thesis have brought microbial risk assessments one step closer to more uniform and repeatable risk analysis by using actual and relevant measured data and hydrodynamic water quality models to estimate the risk from flooding caused...... are expected to increase in the future. To ensure public health during extreme rainfall, solutions are needed, but limited knowledge on microbial water quality, and related health risks, makes it difficult to implement microbial risk analysis as a part of the basis for decision making. The main aim of this Ph...

  13. HVAC fault tree analysis for WIPP integrated risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirby, P.; Iacovino, J.

    1990-01-01

    In order to evaluate the public health risk from operation of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) due to potential radioactive releases, a probabilistic risk assessment of waste handling operations was conducted. One major aspect of this risk assessment involved fault tree analysis of the plant heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, which comprise the final barrier between waste handling operations and the environment. 1 refs., 1 tab

  14. Risk analysis within environmental impact assessment of proposed construction activity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zeleňáková, Martina; Zvijáková, Lenka

    2017-01-15

    Environmental impact assessment is an important process, prior to approval of the investment plan, providing a detailed examination of the likely and foreseeable impacts of proposed construction activity on the environment. The objective of this paper is to develop a specific methodology for the analysis and evaluation of environmental impacts of selected constructions – flood protection structures using risk analysis methods. The application of methodology designed for the process of environmental impact assessment will develop assumptions for further improvements or more effective implementation and performance of this process. The main objective of the paper is to improve the implementation of the environmental impact assessment process. Through the use of risk analysis methods in environmental impact assessment process, the set objective has been achieved. - Highlights: This paper is informed by an effort to develop research with the aim of: • Improving existing qualitative and quantitative methods for assessing the impacts • A better understanding of relations between probabilities and consequences • Methodology for the EIA of flood protection constructions based on risk analysis • Creative approaches in the search for environmentally friendly proposed activities.

  15. Risk analysis within environmental impact assessment of proposed construction activity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zeleňáková, Martina; Zvijáková, Lenka

    2017-01-01

    Environmental impact assessment is an important process, prior to approval of the investment plan, providing a detailed examination of the likely and foreseeable impacts of proposed construction activity on the environment. The objective of this paper is to develop a specific methodology for the analysis and evaluation of environmental impacts of selected constructions – flood protection structures using risk analysis methods. The application of methodology designed for the process of environmental impact assessment will develop assumptions for further improvements or more effective implementation and performance of this process. The main objective of the paper is to improve the implementation of the environmental impact assessment process. Through the use of risk analysis methods in environmental impact assessment process, the set objective has been achieved. - Highlights: This paper is informed by an effort to develop research with the aim of: • Improving existing qualitative and quantitative methods for assessing the impacts • A better understanding of relations between probabilities and consequences • Methodology for the EIA of flood protection constructions based on risk analysis • Creative approaches in the search for environmentally friendly proposed activities.

  16. Technical Overview of Ecological Risk Assessment - Analysis Phase: Exposure Characterization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Exposure Characterization is the second major component of the analysis phase of a risk assessment. For a pesticide risk assessment, the exposure characterization describes the potential or actual contact of a pesticide with a plant, animal, or media.

  17. The role of uncertainty analysis in dose reconstruction and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoffman, F.O.; Simon, S.L.; Thiessen. K.M.

    1996-01-01

    Dose reconstruction and risk assessment rely heavily on the use of mathematical models to extrapolate information beyond the realm of direct observation. Because models are merely approximations of real systems, their predictions are inherently uncertain. As a result, full disclosure of uncertainty in dose and risk estimates is essential to achieve scientific credibility and to build public trust. The need for formal analysis of uncertainty in model predictions was presented during the nineteenth annual meeting of the NCRP. At that time, quantitative uncertainty analysis was considered a relatively new and difficult subject practiced by only a few investigators. Today, uncertainty analysis has become synonymous with the assessment process itself. When an uncertainty analysis is used iteratively within the assessment process, it can guide experimental research to refine dose and risk estimates, deferring potentially high cost or high consequence decisions until uncertainty is either acceptable or irreducible. Uncertainty analysis is now mandated for all ongoing dose reconstruction projects within the United States, a fact that distinguishes dose reconstruction from other types of exposure and risk assessments. 64 refs., 6 figs., 1 tab

  18. A new tool for risk analysis and assessment in petrochemical plants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    El-Arkam Mechhoud

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The aim of our work was the implementation of a new automated tool dedicated to risk analysis and assessment in petrochemical plants, based on a combination of two analysis methods: HAZOP (HAZard and OPerability and FMEA (Failure Mode and Effect Analysis. Assessment of accident scenarios is also considered. The principal advantage of the two analysis methods is to speed-up hazard identification and risk assessment and forecast the nature and impact of such accidents. Plant parameters are analyzed under a graphical interface to facilitate the exploitation of our developed approach. This automated analysis brings out the different deviations of the operating parameters of any system in the plant. Possible causes of these deviations, their consequences and preventive actions are identified. The result is risk minimization and dependability enhancement of the considered system.

  19. Cable Hot Shorts and Circuit Analysis in Fire Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    LaChance, Jeffrey; Nowlen, Steven P.; Wyant, Frank

    1999-01-01

    Under existing methods of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), the analysis of fire-induced circuit faults has typically been conducted on a simplistic basis. In particular, those hot-short methodologies that have been applied remain controversial in regards to the scope of the assessments, the underlying methods, and the assumptions employed. To address weaknesses in fire PRA methodologies, the USNRC has initiated a fire risk analysis research program that includes a task for improving the tools for performing circuit analysis. The objective of this task is to obtain a better understanding of the mechanisms linking fire-induced cable damage to potentially risk-significant failure modes of power, control, and instrumentation cables. This paper discusses the current status of the circuit analysis task

  20. Economic impact assessment in pest risk analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Soliman, T.A.A.; Mourits, M.C.M.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.; Werf, van der W.

    2010-01-01

    According to international treaties, phytosanitary measures against introduction and spread of invasive plant pests must be justified by a science-based pest risk analysis (PRA). Part of the PRA consists of an assessment of potential economic consequences. This paper evaluates the main available

  1. Public transport risk assessment through fault tree analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Yaghoubpour

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available This study focused on the public transport risk assessment in District one of ​​Tehran through Fault Tree Analysis involving the three criteria of human, vehicle and road in Haddon matrix. In fact, it examined the factors contributing to the occurrence of road accidents at several urban black spots within District 1. Relying on road safety checklists and survey of experts, this study made an effort to help urban managers to assess the risks in the public transport and prevent road accidents. Finally, the risk identification and assessment of public transport in District one yielded several results to answer the research questions. The hypotheses analysis suggested that safety issues involved in public transport are concerned by urban managers. The key reactive measures are investigation of accidents, identification of causes and correction of black spots. In addition to high costs, however, the reactive measures give rise to multiple operational problems such as traffic navigation and guaranteeing user safety in every operation. The case study highlighted the same fact. The macro-level management in the metropolis of Tehran is critical. The urban road casualties and losses can be curtailed by preventive measures such as continuous assessment of road safety.

  2. Introduction to risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raina, V.M.

    2002-01-01

    This paper gives an introduction to risk assessment. It discusses the basic concepts of risk assessment, nuclear risk assessment process and products, the role of risk assessment products in nuclear safety assurance, the relationship between risk assessment and other safety analysis and risk assessment and safe operating envelope

  3. Analysis of risk factors and risk assessment for ischemic stroke recurrence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiu-ying LONG

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Objective To screen the risk factors for recurrence of ischemic stroke and to assess the risk of recurrence. Methods Essen Stroke Risk Score (ESRS was used to evaluate the risk of recurrence in 176 patients with ischemic stroke (96 cases of first onset and 80 cases of recurrence. Univariate and multivariate stepwise Logistic regression analysis was used to screen risk factors for recurrence of ischemic stroke.  Results There were significant differences between first onset group and recurrence group on age, the proportion of > 75 years old, hypertension, diabetes, coronary heart disease, peripheral angiopathy, transient ischemic attack (TIA or ischemic stroke, drinking and ESRS score (P < 0.05, for all. First onset group included one case of ESRS 0 (1.04%, 8 cases of 1 (8.33%, 39 cases of 2 (40.63%, 44 cases of 3 (45.83%, 4 cases of 4 (4.17%. Recurrence group included 2 cases of ESRS 3 (2.50%, 20 cases of 4 (25% , 37 cases of 5 (46.25% , 18 cases of 6 (22.50% , 3 cases of 7 (3.75% . There was significant difference between 2 groups (Z = -11.376, P = 0.000. Logistic regression analysis showed ESRS > 3 score was independent risk factor for recurrence of ischemic stroke (OR = 31.324, 95%CI: 3.934-249.430; P = 0.001.  Conclusions ESRS > 3 score is the independent risk factor for recurrence of ischemic stroke. It is important to strengthen risk assessment of recurrence of ischemic stroke. To screen and control risk factors is the key to secondary prevention of ischemic stroke. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1672-6731.2016.07.011

  4. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  5. System Analysis and Risk Assessment system (SARA) Version 4.0

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sattison, M.B.; Russell, K.D.; Skinner, N.L.

    1992-01-01

    This NUREG is the tutorial for the System Analysis and Risk Assessment System (SARA) Version 4.0, a microcomputer-based system used to analyze the safety issues of a family [i.e., a power plant, a manufacturing facility, any facility on which a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) might be performed]. A series of lessons are provided that walk the user through some basic steps common to most analyses performed with SARA. The example problems presented in the lessons build on one another, and in combination, lead the user through all aspects of SARA sensitivity analysis

  6. A Flood Risk Assessment of Quang Nam, Vietnam Using Spatial Multicriteria Decision Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chinh Luu

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Vietnam is highly vulnerable to flood and storm impacts. Holistic flood risk assessment maps that adequately consider flood risk factors of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability are not available. These are vital for flood risk preparedness and disaster mitigation measures at the local scale. Unfortunately, there is a lack of knowledge about spatial multicriteria decision analysis and flood risk analysis more broadly in Vietnam. In response to this need, we identify and quantify flood risk components in Quang Nam province through spatial multicriteria decision analysis. The study presents a new approach to local flood risk assessment mapping, which combines historical flood marks with exposure and vulnerability data. The flood risk map output could assist and empower decision-makers in undertaking flood risk management activities in the province. Our study demonstrates a methodology to build flood risk assessment maps using flood mark, exposure and vulnerability data, which could be applied in other provinces in Vietnam.

  7. An introductory guide to uncertainty analysis in environmental and health risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoffman, F.O.; Hammonds, J.S.

    1992-10-01

    To compensate for the potential for overly conservative estimates of risk using standard US Environmental Protection Agency methods, an uncertainty analysis should be performed as an integral part of each risk assessment. Uncertainty analyses allow one to obtain quantitative results in the form of confidence intervals that will aid in decision making and will provide guidance for the acquisition of additional data. To perform an uncertainty analysis, one must frequently rely on subjective judgment in the absence of data to estimate the range and a probability distribution describing the extent of uncertainty about a true but unknown value for each parameter of interest. This information is formulated from professional judgment based on an extensive review of literature, analysis of the data, and interviews with experts. Various analytical and numerical techniques are available to allow statistical propagation of the uncertainty in the model parameters to a statement of uncertainty in the risk to a potentially exposed individual. Although analytical methods may be straightforward for relatively simple models, they rapidly become complicated for more involved risk assessments. Because of the tedious efforts required to mathematically derive analytical approaches to propagate uncertainty in complicated risk assessments, numerical methods such as Monte Carlo simulation should be employed. The primary objective of this report is to provide an introductory guide for performing uncertainty analysis in risk assessments being performed for Superfund sites

  8. Offshore risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Vinnem, Jan-Erik

    2014-01-01

      Offshore Risk Assessment was the first book to deal with quantified risk assessment (QRA) as applied specifically to offshore installations and operations. Risk assessment techniques have been used for more than three decades in the offshore oil and gas industry, and their use is set to expand increasingly as the industry moves into new areas and faces new challenges in older regions.   This updated and expanded third edition has been informed by a major R&D program on offshore risk assessment in Norway and summarizes research from 2006 to the present day. Rooted with a thorough discussion of risk metrics and risk analysis methodology,  subsequent chapters are devoted to analytical approaches to escalation, escape, evacuation and rescue analysis of safety and emergency systems.   Separate chapters analyze the main hazards of offshore structures: fire, explosion, collision, and falling objects as well as structural and marine hazards. Risk mitigation and control are discussed, as well as an illustrat...

  9. System Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krantz, E.A.; Russell, K.D.; Stewart, H.D.; Van Siclen, V.S.

    1986-01-01

    Utilization of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) related information in the day-to-day operation of plant systems has, in the past, been impracticable due to the size of the computers needed to run PRA codes. This paper discusses a microcomputer-based database system which can greatly enhance the capability of operators or regulators to incorporate PRA methodologies into their routine decision making. This system is called the System Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) system. SARA was developed by EG and G Idaho, Inc. at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory to facilitate the study of frequency and consequence analyses of accident sequences from a large number of light water reactors (LWRs) in this country. This information is being amassed by several studies sponsored by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC). To meet the need of portability and accessibility, and to perform the variety of calculations necessary, it was felt that a microcomputer-based system would be most suitable

  10. Ecological risk assessment of hydropower dam construction based on ecological network analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, Shaoqing; Fath, Brian D.; Chen, Bin

    2010-01-01

    Dam construction is regarded as one of the major factors contributing to significant modifications of the river ecosystems, and the ecological risk (ER) assessment of dam construction has received growing attention in recent years. In the present study, we explored the potential ecological risk caused by dam project based on the general principles of the ecological risk assessment. Ecological network analysis was proposed as the usable analytic method for the implement of ecological risk asse...

  11. Statistically based uncertainty assessments in nuclear risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spencer, F.W.; Diegert, K.V.; Easterling, R.G.

    1987-01-01

    Over the last decade, the problems of estimation and uncertainty assessment in probabilistics risk assessment (PRAs) have been addressed in a variety of NRC and industry-sponsored projects. These problems have received attention because of a recognition that major uncertainties in risk estimation exist, which can be reduced by collecting more and better data and other information, and because of a recognition that better methods for assessing these uncertainties are needed. In particular, a clear understanding of the nature and magnitude of various sources of uncertainty is needed to facilitate descision-making on possible plant changes and research options. Recent PRAs have employed methods of probability propagation, sometimes involving the use of Bayes Theorem, and intended to formalize the use of ''engineering judgment'' or ''expert opinion.'' All sources, or feelings, of uncertainty are expressed probabilistically, so that uncertainty analysis becomes simply a matter of probability propagation. Alternatives to forcing a probabilistic framework at all stages of a PRA are a major concern in this paper, however

  12. A Big Data Analysis Approach for Rail Failure Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamshidi, Ali; Faghih-Roohi, Shahrzad; Hajizadeh, Siamak; Núñez, Alfredo; Babuska, Robert; Dollevoet, Rolf; Li, Zili; De Schutter, Bart

    2017-08-01

    Railway infrastructure monitoring is a vital task to ensure rail transportation safety. A rail failure could result in not only a considerable impact on train delays and maintenance costs, but also on safety of passengers. In this article, the aim is to assess the risk of a rail failure by analyzing a type of rail surface defect called squats that are detected automatically among the huge number of records from video cameras. We propose an image processing approach for automatic detection of squats, especially severe types that are prone to rail breaks. We measure the visual length of the squats and use them to model the failure risk. For the assessment of the rail failure risk, we estimate the probability of rail failure based on the growth of squats. Moreover, we perform severity and crack growth analyses to consider the impact of rail traffic loads on defects in three different growth scenarios. The failure risk estimations are provided for several samples of squats with different crack growth lengths on a busy rail track of the Dutch railway network. The results illustrate the practicality and efficiency of the proposed approach. © 2017 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

  13. Assessment and uncertainty analysis of groundwater risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Fawen; Zhu, Jingzhao; Deng, Xiyuan; Zhao, Yong; Li, Shaofei

    2018-01-01

    Groundwater with relatively stable quantity and quality is commonly used by human being. However, as the over-mining of groundwater, problems such as groundwater funnel, land subsidence and salt water intrusion have emerged. In order to avoid further deterioration of hydrogeological problems in over-mining regions, it is necessary to conduct the assessment of groundwater risk. In this paper, risks of shallow and deep groundwater in the water intake area of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project in Tianjin, China, were evaluated. Firstly, two sets of four-level evaluation index system were constructed based on the different characteristics of shallow and deep groundwater. Secondly, based on the normalized factor values and the synthetic weights, the risk values of shallow and deep groundwater were calculated. Lastly, the uncertainty of groundwater risk assessment was analyzed by indicator kriging method. The results meet the decision maker's demand for risk information, and overcome previous risk assessment results expressed in the form of deterministic point estimations, which ignore the uncertainty of risk assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Risk Assessment Method for Offshore Structure Based on Global Sensitivity Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zou Tao

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on global sensitivity analysis (GSA, this paper proposes a new risk assessment method for an offshore structure design. This method quantifies all the significances among random variables and their parameters at first. And by comparing the degree of importance, all minor factors would be negligible. Then, the global uncertainty analysis work would be simplified. Global uncertainty analysis (GUA is an effective way to study the complexity and randomness of natural events. Since field measured data and statistical results often have inevitable errors and uncertainties which lead to inaccurate prediction and analysis, the risk in the design stage of offshore structures caused by uncertainties in environmental loads, sea level, and marine corrosion must be taken into account. In this paper, the multivariate compound extreme value distribution model (MCEVD is applied to predict the extreme sea state of wave, current, and wind. The maximum structural stress and deformation of a Jacket platform are analyzed and compared with different design standards. The calculation result sufficiently demonstrates the new risk assessment method’s rationality and security.

  15. The benefits of integrating cost-benefit analysis and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fisher, K.; Clarke-Whistler, K.

    1995-01-01

    It has increasingly been recognized that knowledge of risks in the absence of benefits and costs cannot dictate appropriate public policy choices. Recent evidence of this recognition includes the proposed EPA Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis Act of 1995, a number of legislative changes in Canada and the US, and the increasing demand for field studies combining measures of impacts, risks, costs and benefits. Failure to consider relative environmental and human health risks, benefits, and costs in making public policy decisions has resulted in allocating scarce resources away from areas offering the highest levels of risk reduction and improvements in health and safety. The authors discuss the implications of not taking costs and benefits into account in addressing environmental risks, drawing on examples from both Canada and the US. The authors also present the results of their recent field work demonstrating the advantages of considering costs and benefits in making public policy and site remediation decisions, including a study on the benefits and costs of prevention, remediation and monitoring techniques applied to groundwater contamination; the benefits and costs of banning the use of chlorine; and the benefits and costs of Canada's concept of disposing of high-level nuclear waste. The authors conclude that a properly conducted Cost-Benefit Analysis can provide critical input to a Risk Assessment and can ensure that risk management decisions are efficient, cost-effective and maximize improvement to environmental and human health

  16. A root cause analysis approach to risk assessment of a pipeline network for Kuwait Oil Company

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Davies, Ray J.; Alfano, Tony D. [Det Norske Veritas (DNV), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Waheed, Farrukh [Kuwait Oil Company, Ahmadi (Kuwait); Komulainen, Tiina [Kongsberg Oil and Gas Technologies, Sandvika (Norway)

    2009-07-01

    A large scale risk assessment was performed by Det Norske Veritas (DNV) for the entire Kuwait Oil Company (KOC) pipeline network. This risk assessment was unique in that it incorporated the assessment of all major sources of process related risk faced by KOC and included root cause management system related risks in addition to technical risks related to more immediate causes. The assessment was conducted across the entire pipeline network with the scope divided into three major categories:1. Integrity Management 2. Operations 3. Management Systems Aspects of integrity management were ranked and prioritized using a custom algorithm based on critical data sets. A detailed quantitative risk assessment was then used to further evaluate those issues deemed unacceptable, and finally a cost benefit analysis approach was used to compare and select improvement options. The operations assessment involved computer modeling of the entire pipeline network to assess for bottlenecks, surge and erosion analysis, and to identify opportunities within the network that could potentially lead to increased production. The management system assessment was performed by conducting a gap analysis on the existing system and by prioritizing those improvement actions that best aligned with KOC's strategic goals for pipelines. Using a broad and three-pronged approach to their overall risk assessment, KOC achieved a thorough, root cause analysis-based understanding of risks to their system as well as a detailed list of recommended remediation measures that were merged into a 5-year improvement plan. (author)

  17. HSE assessment of explosion risk analysis in offshore safety cases

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brighton, P.W.M.; Fearnley, P.J.; Brearley, I.G. [Health and Safety Executive, Bootle (United Kingdom). Offshore Safety Div.

    1995-12-31

    In the past two years HSE has assessed around 250 Safety Cases for offshore oil and gas installations, building up a unique overview of the current state of the art on fire and explosion risk assessment. This paper reviews the explosion risk methods employed, focusing on the aspects causing most difficulty for assessment and acceptance of Safety Cases. Prediction of overpressures in offshore explosions has been intensively researched in recent years but the justification of the means of prevention, control and mitigation of explosions often depends on much additional analysis of the frequency and damage potential of explosions. This involves a number of factors, the five usually considered being: leak sizes; gas dispersion; ignition probabilities; the frequency distribution of explosion strength; and the prediction of explosion damage. Sources of major uncertainty in these factors and their implications for practical risk management decisions are discussed. (author)

  18. Risk Assessment in the Maritime Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Mousavi

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment is a well-developed field which many operators are currently applying to improve their operations and reduce their risk exposure. This paper is intended to provide an overview of the risk assessment for mariners in the Maritime transportation. The risks addressed are primarily those affecting the safety of a vessel, facility or operation. The concept of risk is defined, and the methods available to assess the risks associated with an operation are described. Regulatory requirements that have prompted the development of modern risk assessment practices are described, and future regulatory trends are discussed. There are many different analysis techniques and models that have been developed to aid in conducting risk assessments. A key to any successful risk analysis is choosing the right method (or combination of methods for the situation at hand. This is achieved through critical analysis of the available data concerning marine crises. This paper provides a brief introduction to some of the analysis methods available and suggests risk analysis approaches to support different types of decision making within the maritime transportation to cope with crises. Finally, as awareness of risk assessment increases, the benefits which can be realized through its application will continue to increase. Organizations in both the public and the private sector are becoming more and more familiar with the benefits associated with risk-based approaches to managing safety and consequently reducing crisis in maritime transportation.

  19. Analysis of existing risk assessments, and list of suggestions

    CERN Document Server

    Heimsch, Laura

    2016-01-01

    The scope of this project was to analyse risk assessments made at CERN and extracting some crucial information about the different methodologies used, profiles of people who make the risk assessments, and gathering information of whether the risk matrix was used and if the acceptable level of risk was defined. Second step of the project was to trigger discussion inside HSE about risk assessment by suggesting a risk matrix and a risk assessment template.

  20. Instability risk analysis and risk assessment system establishment of underground storage caverns in bedded salt rock

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jing, Wenjun; Zhao, Yan

    2018-02-01

    Stability is an important part of geotechnical engineering research. The operating experiences of underground storage caverns in salt rock all around the world show that the stability of the caverns is the key problem of safe operation. Currently, the combination of theoretical analysis and numerical simulation are the mainly adopts method of reserve stability analysis. This paper introduces the concept of risk into the stability analysis of underground geotechnical structure, and studies the instability of underground storage cavern in salt rock from the perspective of risk analysis. Firstly, the definition and classification of cavern instability risk is proposed, and the damage mechanism is analyzed from the mechanical angle. Then the main stability evaluating indicators of cavern instability risk are proposed, and an evaluation method of cavern instability risk is put forward. Finally, the established cavern instability risk assessment system is applied to the analysis and prediction of cavern instability risk after 30 years of operation in a proposed storage cavern group in the Huai’an salt mine. This research can provide a useful theoretical base for the safe operation and management of underground storage caverns in salt rock.

  1. Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Hrdová, Edita

    2012-01-01

    This diploma thesis is focused on companies risk evaluation before endorsement of Loan deriving from business relationships. The aim of this thesis is not only to describe individual steps of risk assessment, but also perfom analysis of particular companies based on available data, i.e. Balance sheet, Profit and Loss statement and external rating and after that propose solution for each company. My analysis will be based on theoretical knowledge, further on experience related to my job role a...

  2. Overview of methods for uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis in probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iman, R.L.; Helton, J.C.

    1985-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is playing an increasingly important role in the nuclear reactor regulatory process. The assessment of uncertainties associated with PRA results is widely recognized as an important part of the analysis process. One of the major criticisms of the Reactor Safety Study was that its representation of uncertainty was inadequate. The desire for the capability to treat uncertainties with the MELCOR risk code being developed at Sandia National Laboratories is indicative of the current interest in this topic. However, as yet, uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis in the context of PRA is a relatively immature field. In this paper, available methods for uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis in a PRA are reviewed. This review first treats methods for use with individual components of a PRA and then considers how these methods could be combined in the performance of a complete PRA. In the context of this paper, the goal of uncertainty analysis is to measure the imprecision in PRA outcomes of interest, and the goal of sensitivity analysis is to identify the major contributors to this imprecision. There are a number of areas that must be considered in uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis for a PRA: (1) information, (2) systems analysis, (3) thermal-hydraulic phenomena/fission product behavior, (4) health and economic consequences, and (5) display of results. Each of these areas and the synthesis of them into a complete PRA are discussed

  3. Transmission risk assessment of invasive fluke Fascioloides magna using GIS-modelling and multicriteria analysis methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juhásová L.

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The combination of multicriteria analysis (MCA, particularly analytic hierarchy process (AHP and geographic information system (GIS were applied for transmission risk assessment of Fascioloides magna (Trematoda; Fasciolidae in south-western Slovakia. Based on the details on F. magna life cycle, the following risk factors (RF of parasite transmission were determined: intermediate (RFIH and final hosts (RFFH (biological factors, annual precipitation (RFAP, land use (RFLU, flooded area (RFFA, and annual mean air temperature (RFAT (environmental factors. Two types of risk analyses were modelled: (1 potential risk analysis was focused on the determination of the potential risk of parasite transmission into novel territories (data on F. magna occurrence were excluded; (2 actual risk analysis considered also the summary data on F. magna occurrence in the model region (risk factor parasite occurrence RFPO included in the analysis. The results of the potential risk analysis provided novel distribution pattern and revealed new geographical area as the potential risk zone of F. magna occurrence. Although the actual risk analysis revealed all four risk zones of F. magna transmission (acceptable, moderate, undesirable and unacceptable, its outputs were significantly affected by the data on parasite occurrence what reduced the informative value of the actual transmission risk assessment.

  4. Critical analysis of frameworks and approaches to assess the environmental risks of nanomaterials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grieger, Khara Deanne; Linkov, Igor; Hansen, Steffen Foss

    and approaches which have been developed or proposed by large organizations or regulatory bodies for NM. These frameworks and approaches were evaluated and assessed based on a select number of criteria which have been previously proposed as important parameters for inclusion in successful risk assessment......7.1.7 Critical analysis of frameworks and approaches to assess the environmental risks of nanomaterials Khara D. Grieger1, Igor Linkov2, Steffen Foss Hansen1, Anders Baun1 1Technical University of Denmark, Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark 2Environmental Laboratory, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Brookline, USA...... Email: kdg@env.dtu.dk Scientists, organizations, governments, and policy-makers are currently involved in reviewing, adapting, and formulating risk assessment frameworks and strategies to understand and assess the potential environmental risks of engineered nanomaterials (NM). It is becoming...

  5. Analysis of dependent failures in risk assessment and reliability evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleming, K.N.; Mosleh, A.; Kelley, A.P. Jr.; Gas-Cooled Reactors Associates, La Jolla, CA)

    1983-01-01

    The ability to estimate the risk of potential reactor accidents is largely determined by the ability to analyze statistically dependent multiple failures. The importance of dependent failures has been indicated in recent probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) studies as well as in reports of reactor operating experiences. This article highlights the importance of several different types of dependent failures from the perspective of the risk and reliability analyst and provides references to the methods and data available for their analysis. In addition to describing the current state of the art, some recent advances, pitfalls, misconceptions, and limitations of some approaches to dependent failure analysis are addressed. A summary is included of the discourse on this subject, which is presented in the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers/American Nuclear Society PRA Procedures Guide

  6. An integrated risk assessment approach: Risk assessment in the programmatic environmental impact statement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morris, J.M.

    1994-01-01

    The following paper is an informal summary of salient points made in the presentation entitled open-quotes An Integrated Risk Assessment Approach: Risk Assessment in the Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS).close quotes. This presentation was given at the U.S. DOE Integrated Planning Workshop in Denver, Colorado on June 2, 1994. Integrated decision analysis is very important in environmental restoration and waste management in the evaluation of such things as land use planning, waste load forecasting, cost analyses, and technology development activities. Integrated risk assessment is an approach that addresses multiple components of risk, including: risks from surplus facilities as well as typical environmental restoration sites, risks to the public, risks to workers, ecological risk, risks before, during and after remediation activities, and others

  7. Quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinstock, Robert M (Inventor); Smidts, Carol S (Inventor); Mosleh, Ali (Inventor); Chang, Yung-Hsien (Inventor); Swaminathan, Sankaran (Inventor); Groen, Francisco J (Inventor); Tan, Zhibin (Inventor)

    2001-01-01

    A quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS) builds a risk model of a system for which risk of failure is being assessed, then analyzes the risk of the system corresponding to the risk model. The QRAS performs sensitivity analysis of the risk model by altering fundamental components and quantifications built into the risk model, then re-analyzes the risk of the system using the modifications. More particularly, the risk model is built by building a hierarchy, creating a mission timeline, quantifying failure modes, and building/editing event sequence diagrams. Multiplicities, dependencies, and redundancies of the system are included in the risk model. For analysis runs, a fixed baseline is first constructed and stored. This baseline contains the lowest level scenarios, preserved in event tree structure. The analysis runs, at any level of the hierarchy and below, access this baseline for risk quantitative computation as well as ranking of particular risks. A standalone Tool Box capability exists, allowing the user to store application programs within QRAS.

  8. Operational Implementation of a Pc Uncertainty Construct for Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newman, Lauri K.; Hejduk, Matthew D.; Johnson, Lauren C.

    2016-01-01

    Earlier this year the NASA Conjunction Assessment and Risk Analysis (CARA) project presented the theoretical and algorithmic aspects of a method to include the uncertainties in the calculation inputs when computing the probability of collision (Pc) between two space objects, principally uncertainties in the covariances and the hard-body radius. The output of this calculation approach is to produce rather than a single Pc value an entire probability density function that will represent the range of possible Pc values given the uncertainties in the inputs and bring CA risk analysis methodologies more in line with modern risk management theory. The present study provides results from the exercise of this method against an extended dataset of satellite conjunctions in order to determine the effect of its use on the evaluation of conjunction assessment (CA) event risk posture. The effects are found to be considerable: a good number of events are downgraded from or upgraded to a serious risk designation on the basis of consideration of the Pc uncertainty. The findings counsel the integration of the developed methods into NASA CA operations.

  9. Deterministic quantitative risk assessment development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dawson, Jane; Colquhoun, Iain [PII Pipeline Solutions Business of GE Oil and Gas, Cramlington Northumberland (United Kingdom)

    2009-07-01

    Current risk assessment practice in pipeline integrity management is to use a semi-quantitative index-based or model based methodology. This approach has been found to be very flexible and provide useful results for identifying high risk areas and for prioritizing physical integrity assessments. However, as pipeline operators progressively adopt an operating strategy of continual risk reduction with a view to minimizing total expenditures within safety, environmental, and reliability constraints, the need for quantitative assessments of risk levels is becoming evident. Whereas reliability based quantitative risk assessments can be and are routinely carried out on a site-specific basis, they require significant amounts of quantitative data for the results to be meaningful. This need for detailed and reliable data tends to make these methods unwieldy for system-wide risk k assessment applications. This paper describes methods for estimating risk quantitatively through the calibration of semi-quantitative estimates to failure rates for peer pipeline systems. The methods involve the analysis of the failure rate distribution, and techniques for mapping the rate to the distribution of likelihoods available from currently available semi-quantitative programs. By applying point value probabilities to the failure rates, deterministic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) provides greater rigor and objectivity than can usually be achieved through the implementation of semi-quantitative risk assessment results. The method permits a fully quantitative approach or a mixture of QRA and semi-QRA to suit the operator's data availability and quality, and analysis needs. For example, consequence analysis can be quantitative or can address qualitative ranges for consequence categories. Likewise, failure likelihoods can be output as classical probabilities or as expected failure frequencies as required. (author)

  10. Predicting child maltreatment: A meta-analysis of the predictive validity of risk assessment instruments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Put, Claudia E; Assink, Mark; Boekhout van Solinge, Noëlle F

    2017-11-01

    Risk assessment is crucial in preventing child maltreatment since it can identify high-risk cases in need of child protection intervention. Despite widespread use of risk assessment instruments in child welfare, it is unknown how well these instruments predict maltreatment and what instrument characteristics are associated with higher levels of predictive validity. Therefore, a multilevel meta-analysis was conducted to examine the predictive accuracy of (characteristics of) risk assessment instruments. A literature search yielded 30 independent studies (N=87,329) examining the predictive validity of 27 different risk assessment instruments. From these studies, 67 effect sizes could be extracted. Overall, a medium significant effect was found (AUC=0.681), indicating a moderate predictive accuracy. Moderator analyses revealed that onset of maltreatment can be better predicted than recurrence of maltreatment, which is a promising finding for early detection and prevention of child maltreatment. In addition, actuarial instruments were found to outperform clinical instruments. To bring risk and needs assessment in child welfare to a higher level, actuarial instruments should be further developed and strengthened by distinguishing risk assessment from needs assessment and by integrating risk assessment with case management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. The relation of risk assessment and health impact assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ádám, Balázs; Gulis, Gabriel

    2013-01-01

    than assessing a present situation. As part of this process, however, methods applied in risk assessment are used. Risk assessment typically characterises relation of a well-defined risk factor to a well-defined health outcome. Within HIA usually several individual risk assessments are needed...... of the causal chain from the proposal through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The stepwise analysis, systematic prioritization and consideration of horizontal interactions between the causal pathways make it feasible to use widely recognized risk assessment methods in the HIA......The level and distribution of health risks in a society is substantially influenced by measures of various policies, programmes or projects. Risk assessment can evaluate the nature, likelihood and severity of an adverse effect. Health impact assessment (HIA) provides similar function when used...

  12. Exploring the uncertainties in cancer risk assessment using the integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slob, Wout; Bakker, Martine I; Biesebeek, Jan Dirk Te; Bokkers, Bas G H

    2014-08-01

    Current methods for cancer risk assessment result in single values, without any quantitative information on the uncertainties in these values. Therefore, single risk values could easily be overinterpreted. In this study, we discuss a full probabilistic cancer risk assessment approach in which all the generally recognized uncertainties in both exposure and hazard assessment are quantitatively characterized and probabilistically evaluated, resulting in a confidence interval for the final risk estimate. The methodology is applied to three example chemicals (aflatoxin, N-nitrosodimethylamine, and methyleugenol). These examples illustrate that the uncertainty in a cancer risk estimate may be huge, making single value estimates of cancer risk meaningless. Further, a risk based on linear extrapolation tends to be lower than the upper 95% confidence limit of a probabilistic risk estimate, and in that sense it is not conservative. Our conceptual analysis showed that there are two possible basic approaches for cancer risk assessment, depending on the interpretation of the dose-incidence data measured in animals. However, it remains unclear which of the two interpretations is the more adequate one, adding an additional uncertainty to the already huge confidence intervals for cancer risk estimates. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  13. Dynamic Positioning System (DPS) Risk Analysis Using Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thigpen, Eric B.; Boyer, Roger L.; Stewart, Michael A.; Fougere, Pete

    2017-01-01

    The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Safety & Mission Assurance (S&MA) directorate at the Johnson Space Center (JSC) has applied its knowledge and experience with Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to projects in industries ranging from spacecraft to nuclear power plants. PRA is a comprehensive and structured process for analyzing risk in complex engineered systems and/or processes. The PRA process enables the user to identify potential risk contributors such as, hardware and software failure, human error, and external events. Recent developments in the oil and gas industry have presented opportunities for NASA to lend their PRA expertise to both ongoing and developmental projects within the industry. This paper provides an overview of the PRA process and demonstrates how this process was applied in estimating the probability that a Mobile Offshore Drilling Unit (MODU) operating in the Gulf of Mexico and equipped with a generically configured Dynamic Positioning System (DPS) loses location and needs to initiate an emergency disconnect. The PRA described in this paper is intended to be generic such that the vessel meets the general requirements of an International Maritime Organization (IMO) Maritime Safety Committee (MSC)/Circ. 645 Class 3 dynamically positioned vessel. The results of this analysis are not intended to be applied to any specific drilling vessel, although provisions were made to allow the analysis to be configured to a specific vessel if required.

  14. A comparison of integrated safety analysis and probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Damon, Dennis R.; Mattern, Kevin S.

    2013-01-01

    The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission conducted a comparison of two standard tools for risk informing the regulatory process, namely, the Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) and the Integrated Safety Analysis (ISA). PRA is a calculation of risk metrics, such as Large Early Release Frequency (LERF), and has been used to assess the safety of all commercial power reactors. ISA is an analysis required for fuel cycle facilities (FCFs) licensed to possess potentially critical quantities of special nuclear material. A PRA is usually more detailed and uses more refined models and data than an ISA, in order to obtain reasonable quantitative estimates of risk. PRA is considered fully quantitative, while most ISAs are typically only partially quantitative. The extension of PRA methodology to augment or supplant ISAs in FCFs has long been considered. However, fuel cycle facilities have a wide variety of possible accident consequences, rather than a few surrogates like LERF or core damage as used for reactors. It has been noted that a fuel cycle PRA could be used to better focus attention on the most risk-significant structures, systems, components, and operator actions. ISA and PRA both identify accident sequences; however, their treatment is quite different. ISA's identify accidents that lead to high or intermediate consequences, as defined in 10 Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) 70, and develop a set of Items Relied on For Safety (IROFS) to assure adherence to performance criteria. PRAs identify potential accident scenarios and estimate their frequency and consequences to obtain risk metrics. It is acceptable for ISAs to provide bounding evaluations of accident consequences and likelihoods in order to establish acceptable safety; but PRA applications usually require a reasonable quantitative estimate, and often obtain metrics of uncertainty. This paper provides the background, features, and methodology associated with the PRA and ISA. The differences between the

  15. New challenges on uncertainty propagation assessment of flood risk analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martins, Luciano; Aroca-Jiménez, Estefanía; Bodoque, José M.; Díez-Herrero, Andrés

    2016-04-01

    Natural hazards, such as floods, cause considerable damage to the human life, material and functional assets every year and around the World. Risk assessment procedures has associated a set of uncertainties, mainly of two types: natural, derived from stochastic character inherent in the flood process dynamics; and epistemic, that are associated with lack of knowledge or the bad procedures employed in the study of these processes. There are abundant scientific and technical literature on uncertainties estimation in each step of flood risk analysis (e.g. rainfall estimates, hydraulic modelling variables); but very few experience on the propagation of the uncertainties along the flood risk assessment. Therefore, epistemic uncertainties are the main goal of this work, in particular,understand the extension of the propagation of uncertainties throughout the process, starting with inundability studies until risk analysis, and how far does vary a proper analysis of the risk of flooding. These methodologies, such as Polynomial Chaos Theory (PCT), Method of Moments or Monte Carlo, are used to evaluate different sources of error, such as data records (precipitation gauges, flow gauges...), hydrologic and hydraulic modelling (inundation estimation), socio-demographic data (damage estimation) to evaluate the uncertainties propagation (UP) considered in design flood risk estimation both, in numerical and cartographic expression. In order to consider the total uncertainty and understand what factors are contributed most to the final uncertainty, we used the method of Polynomial Chaos Theory (PCT). It represents an interesting way to handle to inclusion of uncertainty in the modelling and simulation process. PCT allows for the development of a probabilistic model of the system in a deterministic setting. This is done by using random variables and polynomials to handle the effects of uncertainty. Method application results have a better robustness than traditional analysis

  16. Defense Programs Transportation Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clauss, D.B.

    1994-01-01

    This paper provides an overview of the methodology used in a probabilistic transportation risk assessment conducted to assess the probabilities and consequences of inadvertent dispersal of radioactive materials arising from severe transportation accidents. The model was developed for the Defense Program Transportation Risk Assessment (DPTRA) study. The analysis incorporates several enhancements relative to previous risk assessments of hazardous materials transportation including newly-developed statistics on the frequencies and severities of tractor semitrailer accidents and detailed route characterization using the 1990 Census data

  17. Approach to proliferation risk assessment based on multiple objective analysis framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andrianov, A.; Kuptsov, I. [Obninsk Institute for Nuclear Power Engineering of NNRU MEPhI (Russian Federation); Studgorodok 1, Obninsk, Kaluga region, 249030 (Russian Federation)

    2013-07-01

    The approach to the assessment of proliferation risk using the methods of multi-criteria decision making and multi-objective optimization is presented. The approach allows the taking into account of the specifics features of the national nuclear infrastructure, and possible proliferation strategies (motivations, intentions, and capabilities). 3 examples of applying the approach are shown. First, the approach has been used to evaluate the attractiveness of HEU (high enriched uranium)production scenarios at a clandestine enrichment facility using centrifuge enrichment technology. Secondly, the approach has been applied to assess the attractiveness of scenarios for undeclared production of plutonium or HEU by theft of materials circulating in nuclear fuel cycle facilities and thermal reactors. Thirdly, the approach has been used to perform a comparative analysis of the structures of developing nuclear power systems based on different types of nuclear fuel cycles, the analysis being based on indicators of proliferation risk.

  18. Approach to proliferation risk assessment based on multiple objective analysis framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andrianov, A.; Kuptsov, I.

    2013-01-01

    The approach to the assessment of proliferation risk using the methods of multi-criteria decision making and multi-objective optimization is presented. The approach allows the taking into account of the specifics features of the national nuclear infrastructure, and possible proliferation strategies (motivations, intentions, and capabilities). 3 examples of applying the approach are shown. First, the approach has been used to evaluate the attractiveness of HEU (high enriched uranium)production scenarios at a clandestine enrichment facility using centrifuge enrichment technology. Secondly, the approach has been applied to assess the attractiveness of scenarios for undeclared production of plutonium or HEU by theft of materials circulating in nuclear fuel cycle facilities and thermal reactors. Thirdly, the approach has been used to perform a comparative analysis of the structures of developing nuclear power systems based on different types of nuclear fuel cycles, the analysis being based on indicators of proliferation risk

  19. Multi-criteria decision analysis with probabilistic risk assessment for the management of contaminated ground water

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khadam, Ibrahim M.; Kaluarachchi, Jagath J.

    2003-01-01

    Traditionally, environmental decision analysis in subsurface contamination scenarios is performed using cost-benefit analysis. In this paper, we discuss some of the limitations associated with cost-benefit analysis, especially its definition of risk, its definition of cost of risk, and its poor ability to communicate risk-related information. This paper presents an integrated approach for management of contaminated ground water resources using health risk assessment and economic analysis through a multi-criteria decision analysis framework. The methodology introduces several important concepts and definitions in decision analysis related to subsurface contamination. These are the trade-off between population risk and individual risk, the trade-off between the residual risk and the cost of risk reduction, and cost-effectiveness as a justification for remediation. The proposed decision analysis framework integrates probabilistic health risk assessment into a comprehensive, yet simple, cost-based multi-criteria decision analysis framework. The methodology focuses on developing decision criteria that provide insight into the common questions of the decision-maker that involve a number of remedial alternatives. The paper then explores three potential approaches for alternative ranking, a structured explicit decision analysis, a heuristic approach of importance of the order of criteria, and a fuzzy logic approach based on fuzzy dominance and similarity analysis. Using formal alternative ranking procedures, the methodology seeks to present a structured decision analysis framework that can be applied consistently across many different and complex remediation settings. A simple numerical example is presented to demonstrate the proposed methodology. The results showed the importance of using an integrated approach for decision-making considering both costs and risks. Future work should focus on the application of the methodology to a variety of complex field conditions to

  20. A possibilistic analysis approach for environmental risk assessment of petroleum-contaminated sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, L.; Huang, G.H.; Fuller, G.A.

    1999-01-01

    A possibilistic approach for assessing risks associated with petroleum-contaminated sites is provided. The approach is applied to an illustrative case study in order to show its applicability and implementation for decision making in effective site remediation and management. The approach consists of three main parts: (1) the determination of fuzzy steady state contaminant concentrations in a aquifer based on an analytical solute transport model; (2) possibilistic analysis of fuzzy criteria for different risk levels; and (3) environmental risk assessment based on the Euclidian method. Based on results from an illustrative case study, environmental risks at a petroleum-contaminated site can be effectively evaluated using the developed methodology. The risk assessment framework can effectively handle uncertainities presented as fuzzy numbers. The fuzzy nature of water quality and risk level criteria were seen in the related simulation and evaluation models, and the framework is especially useful for situations in which probabilistic information is not available. This use of this approach is new in the area of petroleum waste management under uncertainty, and its results are useful for the related site remediation and management decisions. 36 refs., 1 tab., 4 figs

  1. Ethical dimensions in assessing technical risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birnbacher, D.

    1991-01-01

    Contrary to the present tendency of partially impact-independent technology assessment, the author does not see a difference between a risk-benefit analysis and an ethical technology assessment. As long as the risk-benefit analysis is truly comprehensive, both fall together. This does not mean that convictions of those who have their doubts about some new technologies, independently of impact assessments, may be disregarded in purely consequential risk evaluations. On the contrary, qualms of representatives of these principles, just as any other stable non-acceptance, have to be included as aggravating negative elements in technology assessments. (orig./HSCH) [de

  2. Predicting complication risk in spine surgery: a prospective analysis of a novel risk assessment tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veeravagu, Anand; Li, Amy; Swinney, Christian; Tian, Lu; Moraff, Adrienne; Azad, Tej D; Cheng, Ivan; Alamin, Todd; Hu, Serena S; Anderson, Robert L; Shuer, Lawrence; Desai, Atman; Park, Jon; Olshen, Richard A; Ratliff, John K

    2017-07-01

    OBJECTIVE The ability to assess the risk of adverse events based on known patient factors and comorbidities would provide more effective preoperative risk stratification. Present risk assessment in spine surgery is limited. An adverse event prediction tool was developed to predict the risk of complications after spine surgery and tested on a prospective patient cohort. METHODS The spinal Risk Assessment Tool (RAT), a novel instrument for the assessment of risk for patients undergoing spine surgery that was developed based on an administrative claims database, was prospectively applied to 246 patients undergoing 257 spinal procedures over a 3-month period. Prospectively collected data were used to compare the RAT to the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and the American College of Surgeons National Surgery Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) Surgical Risk Calculator. Study end point was occurrence and type of complication after spine surgery. RESULTS The authors identified 69 patients (73 procedures) who experienced a complication over the prospective study period. Cardiac complications were most common (10.2%). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were calculated to compare complication outcomes using the different assessment tools. Area under the curve (AUC) analysis showed comparable predictive accuracy between the RAT and the ACS NSQIP calculator (0.670 [95% CI 0.60-0.74] in RAT, 0.669 [95% CI 0.60-0.74] in NSQIP). The CCI was not accurate in predicting complication occurrence (0.55 [95% CI 0.48-0.62]). The RAT produced mean probabilities of 34.6% for patients who had a complication and 24% for patients who did not (p = 0.0003). The generated predicted values were stratified into low, medium, and high rates. For the RAT, the predicted complication rate was 10.1% in the low-risk group (observed rate 12.8%), 21.9% in the medium-risk group (observed 31.8%), and 49.7% in the high-risk group (observed 41.2%). The ACS NSQIP calculator consistently

  3. SU-F-T-246: Evaluation of Healthcare Failure Mode And Effect Analysis For Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harry, T; Manger, R; Cervino, L; Pawlicki, T

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: To evaluate the differences between the Veteran Affairs Healthcare Failure Modes and Effect Analysis (HFMEA) and the AAPM Task Group 100 Failure and Effect Analysis (FMEA) risk assessment techniques in the setting of a stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) procedure were compared respectively. Understanding the differences in the techniques methodologies and outcomes will provide further insight into the applicability and utility of risk assessments exercises in radiation therapy. Methods: HFMEA risk assessment analysis was performed on a stereotactic radiosurgery procedure. A previous study from our institution completed a FMEA of our SRS procedure and the process map generated from this work was used for the HFMEA. The process of performing the HFMEA scoring was analyzed, and the results from both analyses were compared. Results: The key differences between the two risk assessments are the scoring criteria for failure modes and identifying critical failure modes for potential hazards. The general consensus among the team performing the analyses was that scoring for the HFMEA was simpler and more intuitive then the FMEA. The FMEA identified 25 critical failure modes while the HFMEA identified 39. Seven of the FMEA critical failure modes were not identified by the HFMEA and 21 of the HFMEA critical failure modes were not identified by the FMEA. HFMEA as described by the Veteran Affairs provides guidelines on which failure modes to address first. Conclusion: HFMEA is a more efficient model for identifying gross risks in a process than FMEA. Clinics with minimal staff, time and resources can benefit from this type of risk assessment to eliminate or mitigate high risk hazards with nominal effort. FMEA can provide more in depth details but at the cost of elevated effort.

  4. SU-F-T-246: Evaluation of Healthcare Failure Mode And Effect Analysis For Risk Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harry, T [Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR (United States); University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA (United States); Manger, R; Cervino, L; Pawlicki, T [University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA (United States)

    2016-06-15

    Purpose: To evaluate the differences between the Veteran Affairs Healthcare Failure Modes and Effect Analysis (HFMEA) and the AAPM Task Group 100 Failure and Effect Analysis (FMEA) risk assessment techniques in the setting of a stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) procedure were compared respectively. Understanding the differences in the techniques methodologies and outcomes will provide further insight into the applicability and utility of risk assessments exercises in radiation therapy. Methods: HFMEA risk assessment analysis was performed on a stereotactic radiosurgery procedure. A previous study from our institution completed a FMEA of our SRS procedure and the process map generated from this work was used for the HFMEA. The process of performing the HFMEA scoring was analyzed, and the results from both analyses were compared. Results: The key differences between the two risk assessments are the scoring criteria for failure modes and identifying critical failure modes for potential hazards. The general consensus among the team performing the analyses was that scoring for the HFMEA was simpler and more intuitive then the FMEA. The FMEA identified 25 critical failure modes while the HFMEA identified 39. Seven of the FMEA critical failure modes were not identified by the HFMEA and 21 of the HFMEA critical failure modes were not identified by the FMEA. HFMEA as described by the Veteran Affairs provides guidelines on which failure modes to address first. Conclusion: HFMEA is a more efficient model for identifying gross risks in a process than FMEA. Clinics with minimal staff, time and resources can benefit from this type of risk assessment to eliminate or mitigate high risk hazards with nominal effort. FMEA can provide more in depth details but at the cost of elevated effort.

  5. A total risk assessment methodology for security assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Auilar, Richard; Pless, Daniel J.; Kaplan, Paul Garry; Silva, Consuelo Juanita; Rhea, Ronald Edward; Wyss, Gregory Dane; Conrad, Stephen Hamilton

    2009-01-01

    Sandia National Laboratories performed a two-year Laboratory Directed Research and Development project to develop a new collaborative risk assessment method to enable decision makers to fully consider the interrelationships between threat, vulnerability, and consequence. A five-step Total Risk Assessment Methodology was developed to enable interdisciplinary collaborative risk assessment by experts from these disciplines. The objective of this process is promote effective risk management by enabling analysts to identify scenarios that are simultaneously achievable by an adversary, desirable to the adversary, and of concern to the system owner or to society. The basic steps are risk identification, collaborative scenario refinement and evaluation, scenario cohort identification and risk ranking, threat chain mitigation analysis, and residual risk assessment. The method is highly iterative, especially with regard to scenario refinement and evaluation. The Total Risk Assessment Methodology includes objective consideration of relative attack likelihood instead of subjective expert judgment. The 'probability of attack' is not computed, but the relative likelihood for each scenario is assessed through identifying and analyzing scenario cohort groups, which are groups of scenarios with comparable qualities to the scenario being analyzed at both this and other targets. Scenarios for the target under consideration and other targets are placed into cohort groups under an established ranking process that reflects the following three factors: known targeting, achievable consequences, and the resources required for an adversary to have a high likelihood of success. The development of these target cohort groups implements, mathematically, the idea that adversaries are actively choosing among possible attack scenarios and avoiding scenarios that would be significantly suboptimal to their objectives. An adversary who can choose among only a few comparable targets and scenarios (a

  6. Underground Test Area Subproject Phase I Data Analysis Task. Volume VIII - Risk Assessment Documentation Package

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1996-12-01

    Volume VIII of the documentation for the Phase I Data Analysis Task performed in support of the current Regional Flow Model, Transport Model, and Risk Assessment for the Nevada Test Site Underground Test Area Subproject contains the risk assessment documentation. Because of the size and complexity of the model area, a considerable quantity of data was collected and analyzed in support of the modeling efforts. The data analysis task was consequently broken into eight subtasks, and descriptions of each subtask's activities are contained in one of the eight volumes that comprise the Phase I Data Analysis Documentation.

  7. A suite of models to support the quantitative assessment of spread in pest risk analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Robinet, C.; Kehlenbeck, H.; Werf, van der W.

    2012-01-01

    In the frame of the EU project PRATIQUE (KBBE-2007-212459 Enhancements of pest risk analysis techniques) a suite of models was developed to support the quantitative assessment of spread in pest risk analysis. This dataset contains the model codes (R language) for the four models in the suite. Three

  8. Application of Risk Assessment Tools in the Continuous Risk Management (CRM) Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ray, Paul S.

    2002-01-01

    Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is currently implementing the Continuous Risk Management (CRM) Program developed by the Carnegie Mellon University and recommended by NASA as the Risk Management (RM) implementation approach. The four most frequently used risk assessment tools in the center are: (a) Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA), Hazard Analysis (HA), Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), and Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA). There are some guidelines for selecting the type of risk assessment tools during the project formulation phase of a project, but there is not enough guidance as to how to apply these tools in the Continuous Risk Management process (CRM). But the ways the safety and risk assessment tools are used make a significant difference in the effectiveness in the risk management function. Decisions regarding, what events are to be included in the analysis, to what level of details should the analysis be continued, make significant difference in the effectiveness of risk management program. Tools of risk analysis also depends on the phase of a project e.g. at the initial phase of a project, when not much data are available on hardware, standard FMEA cannot be applied; instead a functional FMEA may be appropriate. This study attempted to provide some directives to alleviate the difficulty in applying FTA, PRA, and FMEA in the CRM process. Hazard Analysis was not included in the scope of the study due to the short duration of the summer research project.

  9. Is risk analysis scientific?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansson, Sven Ove; Aven, Terje

    2014-07-01

    This article discusses to what extent risk analysis is scientific in view of a set of commonly used definitions and criteria. We consider scientific knowledge to be characterized by its subject matter, its success in developing the best available knowledge in its fields of study, and the epistemic norms and values that guide scientific investigations. We proceed to assess the field of risk analysis according to these criteria. For this purpose, we use a model for risk analysis in which science is used as a base for decision making on risks, which covers the five elements evidence, knowledge base, broad risk evaluation, managerial review and judgment, and the decision; and that relates these elements to the domains experts and decisionmakers, and to the domains fact-based or value-based. We conclude that risk analysis is a scientific field of study, when understood as consisting primarily of (i) knowledge about risk-related phenomena, processes, events, etc., and (ii) concepts, theories, frameworks, approaches, principles, methods and models to understand, assess, characterize, communicate, and manage risk, in general and for specific applications (the instrumental part). © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  10. Building better environmental risk assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raymond eLayton

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERA for genetically modified (GM crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data, and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  11. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines. PMID:26301217

  12. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems - examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  13. Human Reliability Analysis in Support of Risk Assessment for Positive Train Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    2003-06-01

    This report describes an approach to evaluating the reliability of human actions that are modeled in a probabilistic risk assessment : (PRA) of train control operations. This approach to human reliability analysis (HRA) has been applied in the case o...

  14. Risk-based systems analysis for emerging technologies: Applications of a technology risk assessment model to public decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quadrel, M.J.; Fowler, K.M.; Cameron, R.; Treat, R.J.; McCormack, W.D.; Cruse, J.

    1995-01-01

    The risk-based systems analysis model was designed to establish funding priorities among competing technologies for tank waste remediation. The model addresses a gap in the Department of Energy's (DOE's) ''toolkit'' for establishing funding priorities among emerging technologies by providing disciplined risk and cost assessments of candidate technologies within the context of a complete remediation system. The model is comprised of a risk and cost assessment and a decision interface. The former assesses the potential reductions in risk and cost offered by new technology relative to the baseline risk and cost of an entire system. The latter places this critical information in context of other values articulated by decision makers and stakeholders in the DOE system. The risk assessment portion of the model is demonstrated for two candidate technologies for tank waste retrieval (arm-based mechanical retrieval -- the ''long reach arm'') and subsurface barriers (close-coupled chemical barriers). Relative changes from the base case in cost and risk are presented for these two technologies to illustrate how the model works. The model and associated software build on previous work performed for DOE's Office of Technology Development and the former Underground Storage Tank Integrated Demonstration, and complement a decision making tool presented at Waste Management 1994 for integrating technical judgements and non-technical (stakeholder) values when making technology funding decisions

  15. A Bayesian approach to probabilistic sensitivity analysis in structured benefit-risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waddingham, Ed; Mt-Isa, Shahrul; Nixon, Richard; Ashby, Deborah

    2016-01-01

    Quantitative decision models such as multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) can be used in benefit-risk assessment to formalize trade-offs between benefits and risks, providing transparency to the assessment process. There is however no well-established method for propagating uncertainty of treatment effects data through such models to provide a sense of the variability of the benefit-risk balance. Here, we present a Bayesian statistical method that directly models the outcomes observed in randomized placebo-controlled trials and uses this to infer indirect comparisons between competing active treatments. The resulting treatment effects estimates are suitable for use within the MCDA setting, and it is possible to derive the distribution of the overall benefit-risk balance through Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation. The method is illustrated using a case study of natalizumab for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  16. Proteomics analysis of human breast milk to assess breast cancer risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aslebagh, Roshanak; Channaveerappa, Devika; Arcaro, Kathleen F; Darie, Costel C

    2018-02-01

    Detection of breast cancer (BC) in young women is challenging because mammography, the most common tool for detecting BC, is not effective on the dense breast tissue characteristic of young women. In addition to the limited means for detecting their BC, young women face a transient increased risk of pregnancy-associated BC. As a consequence, reproductively active women could benefit significantly from a tool that provides them with accurate risk assessment and early detection of BC. One potential method for detection of BC is biochemical monitoring of proteins and other molecules in bodily fluids such as serum, nipple aspirate, ductal lavage, tear, urine, saliva and breast milk. Of all these fluids, only breast milk provides access to a large volume of breast tissue, in the form of exfoliated epithelial cells, and to the local breast environment, in the form of molecules in the milk. Thus, analysis of breast milk is a non-invasive method with significant potential for assessing BC risk. Here we analyzed human breast milk by mass spectrometry (MS)-based proteomics to build a biomarker signature for early detection of BC. Ten milk samples from eight women provided five paired-groups (cancer versus control) for analysis of dysregulatedproteins: two within woman comparisons (milk from a diseased breast versus a healthy breast of the same woman) and three across women comparisons (milk from a woman with cancer versus a woman without cancer). Despite a wide range in the time between milk donation and cancer diagnosis (cancer diagnosis occurred from 1 month before to 24 months after milk donation), the levels of some proteins differed significantly between cancer and control in several of the five comparison groups. These pilot data are supportive of the idea that molecular analysis of breast milk will identify proteins informative for early detection and accurate assessment of BC risk, and warrant further research. Data are available via ProteomeXchange with identifier

  17. Environmental risk assessment in GMO analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pirondini, Andrea; Marmiroli, Nelson

    2010-01-01

    Genetically modified or engineered organisms (GMOs, GEOs) are utilised in agriculture, expressing traits of interest, such as insect or herbicide resistance. Soybean, maize, cotton and oilseed rape are the GM crops with the largest acreage in the world. The distribution of GM acreage in the different countries is related with the different positions concerning labelling of GMO products: based on the principle of substantial equivalence, or rather based on the precautionary principle. The paper provides an overview on how the risks associated with release of GMO in the environments can be analysed and predicted, in view of a possible coexistence of GM and non-GM organisms in agriculture.Risk assessment procedures, both qualitative and quantitative, are compared in the context of application to GMOs considering also legislation requirements (Directive 2001/18/EC). Criteria and measurable properties to assess harm for human health and environmental safety are listed, and the possible consequences are evaluated in terms of significance.Finally, a mapping of the possible risks deriving from GMO release is reported, focusing on gene transfer to related species, horizontal gene transfer, direct and indirect effects on non target organisms, development of resistance in target organisms, and effects on biodiversity.

  18. Integrated climate change risk assessment:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Halsnæs, Kirsten

    2017-01-01

    Risk assessments of flooding in urban areas during extreme precipitation for use in, for example, decision-making regarding climate adaptation, are surrounded by great uncertainties stemming from climate model projections, methods of downscaling and the assumptions of socioeconomic impact models...... to address the complex linkages between the different kinds of data required in assessing climate adaptation. It emphasizes that the availability of spatially explicit data can reduce the overall uncertainty of the risk assessment and assist in identifying key vulnerable assets. The usefulness...... of such a framework is demonstrated by means of a risk assessment of flooding from extreme precipitation for the city of Odense, Denmark. A sensitivity analysis shows how the presence of particularly important assets, such as cultural and historical heritage, may be addressed in assessing such risks. The output...

  19. An educationally inspired illustration of two-dimensional Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA) and sensitivity analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vásquez, G A; Busschaert, P; Haberbeck, L U; Uyttendaele, M; Geeraerd, A H

    2014-11-03

    Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA) is a structured methodology used to assess the risk involved by ingestion of a pathogen. It applies mathematical models combined with an accurate exploitation of data sets, represented by distributions and - in the case of two-dimensional Monte Carlo simulations - their hyperparameters. This research aims to highlight background information, assumptions and truncations of a two-dimensional QMRA and advanced sensitivity analysis. We believe that such a detailed listing is not always clearly presented in actual risk assessment studies, while it is essential to ensure reliable and realistic simulations and interpretations. As a case-study, we are considering the occurrence of listeriosis in smoked fish products in Belgium during the period 2008-2009, using two-dimensional Monte Carlo and two sensitivity analysis methods (Spearman correlation and Sobol sensitivity indices) to estimate the most relevant factors of the final risk estimate. A risk estimate of 0.018% per consumption of contaminated smoked fish by an immunocompromised person was obtained. The final estimate of listeriosis cases (23) is within the actual reported result obtained for the same period and for the same population. Variability on the final risk estimate is determined by the variability regarding (i) consumer refrigerator temperatures, (ii) the reference growth rate of L. monocytogenes, (iii) the minimum growth temperature of L. monocytogenes and (iv) consumer portion size. Variability regarding the initial contamination level of L. monocytogenes tends to appear as a determinant of risk variability only when the minimum growth temperature is not included in the sensitivity analysis; when it is included the impact regarding the variability on the initial contamination level of L. monocytogenes is disappearing. Uncertainty determinants of the final risk indicated the need of gathering more information on the reference growth rate and the minimum

  20. System Analysis and Risk Assessment System (SARA), Version 4.0

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russell, K.D.; Sattison, M.B.; Skinner, N.L.; Stewart, H.D.; Wood, S.T.

    1992-02-01

    This NUREG is the reference manual for the System Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) System Version 4.0, a microcomputer-based system used to analyze the safety issues of a family [i.e., a power plant, a manufacturing facility, any facility on which a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) might be performed]. The SARA data base contains PRA data for the dominant accident sequences of a family and descriptive information about the family including event trees, fault trees, and system model diagrams. The number of facility data bases that can be accessed is limited only by the amount of disk storage available. To simulate changes to family systems, SARA users change the failure rates of initiating and basic events and/or modify the structure of the cut sets that make up the event trees, fault trees, and systems. The user then evaluates the effects of these changes through the recalculation of the resultant accident sequence probabilities and importance measures. The results are displayed in tables and graphs

  1. Risk assessment of complex accident scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kluegel, Jens-Uwe

    2012-01-01

    The use of methods of risk assessment in accidents in nuclear plants is based on an old tradition. The first consistent systematic study is considered to be the Rasmussen Study of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NRC, WASH-1400. Above and beyond the realm of nuclear technology, there is an extensive range of accident, risk and reliability research into technical-administrative systems. In the past, it has been this area of research which has led to the development of concepts of safety precautions of the type also introduced into nuclear technology (barrier concept, defense in depth, single-failure criterion), where they are now taken for granted as trivial concepts. Also for risk analysis, nuclear technology made use of methods (such as event and fault tree analyses) whose origins were outside the nuclear field. One area in which the use of traditional methods of probabilistic safety analysis is encountering practical problems is risk assessment of complex accident scenarios in nuclear technology. A definition is offered of the term 'complex accident scenarios' in nuclear technology. A number of problems are addressed which arise in the use of traditional PSA procedures in risk assessment of complex accident scenarios. Cases of complex accident scenarios are presented to demonstrate methods of risk assessment which allow robust results to be obtained even when traditional techniques of risk analysis are maintained as a matter of principle. These methods are based on the use of conditional risk metrics. (orig.)

  2. Use of quantitative uncertainty analysis for human health risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duncan, F.L.W.; Gordon, J.W.; Kelly, M.

    1994-01-01

    Current human health risk assessment method for environmental risks typically use point estimates of risk accompanied by qualitative discussions of uncertainty. Alternatively, Monte Carlo simulations may be used with distributions for input parameters to estimate the resulting risk distribution and descriptive risk percentiles. These two techniques are applied for the ingestion of 1,1=dichloroethene in ground water. The results indicate that Monte Carlo simulations provide significantly more information for risk assessment and risk management than do point estimates

  3. Risk assessment of soil contamination criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    King, C.M.; Marter, W.L.; Montaque, D.F.; Holton, G.A.

    1987-06-01

    Criteria have been developed to select radioactive and nonradioactive contaminants at waste sites detailed analysis and risk assessment. These criteria were based on soil and water quality guidelines developed by various government agencies to determine if the criteria were appropriate. We performed a risk assessment of a hypothetical site which contained radioactive and nonradioactive contaminants at levels equal to the criteria values. Risks to the public from atmospheric, surface water, and groundwater exposure pathways were examined. Health risks to the public from atmospheric releases of radioactive and nonradioactive materials from a waste at soil criteria contamination levels are low. Health risks to the maximally exposed individual to chemical carcinogens are considerably below traditional EPA action levels. And health risks to the maximally exposed individual to atmospherically released radioactive contaminants is 1.88 x 10 -7 , more than a factor of 5 less than 10 -6 . Based on our atmospheric exposure pathways analysis and risk assessment, the applied soil criteria are appropriate for screening out unimportant risk contributors to human health from atmospheric exposure pathways. 13 refs., 3 figs., 7 tabs

  4. The use of quantitative risk assessment in HACCP

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoornstra, E.; Northolt, M.D.; Notermans, S.; Barendsz, A.W.

    2001-01-01

    During the hazard analysis as part of the development of a HACCP-system, first the hazards (contaminants) have to be identified and then the risks have to be assessed. Often, this assessment is restricted to a qualitative analysis. By using elements of quantitative risk assessment (QRA) the hazard

  5. Risk assessment theory, methods, and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Rausand, Marvin

    2011-01-01

    With its balanced coverage of theory and applications along with standards and regulations, Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications serves as a comprehensive introduction to the topic. The book serves as a practical guide to current risk analysis and risk assessment, emphasizing the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants and transportation systems. The author applies a uniform framework to the discussion of each method, setting forth clear objectives and descriptions, while also shedding light on applications, essential resources, and advantages and disadvantages. Following an introduction that provides an overview of risk assessment, the book is organized into two sections that outline key theory, methods, and applications. * Introduction to Risk Assessment defines key concepts and details the steps of a thorough risk assessment along with the necessary quantitative risk measures. Chapters outline...

  6. Risk Assessment for an Unmanned Merchant Ship

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ø.J. Rødseth

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The MUNIN project is doing a feasibility study on an unmanned bulk carrier on an intercontinental voyage. To develop the technical and operational concepts, MUNIN has used a risk-based design method, based on the Formal Safety Analysis method which is also recommended by the International Mari-time Organization. Scenario analysis has been used to identify risks and to simplify operational scope. Systematic hazard identification has been used to find critical safety and security risks and how to address these. Technology and operational concept testing is using a hypothesis-based test method, where the hypotheses have been created as a result of the risk assessment. Finally, the cost-benefit assessment will also use results from the risk assessment. This paper describes the risk assessment method, some of the most important results and also describes how the results have been or will be used in the different parts of the project.

  7. Risk analysis: opening the process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, Ph.; Mays, C.

    1998-01-01

    This conference on risk analysis took place in Paris, 11-14 october 1999. Over 200 paper where presented in the seven following sessions: perception; environment and health; persuasive risks; objects and products; personal and collective involvement; assessment and valuation; management. A rational approach to risk analysis has been developed in the three last decades. Techniques for risk assessment have been thoroughly enhanced, risk management approaches have been developed, decision making processes have been clarified, the social dimensions of risk perception and management have been investigated. Nevertheless this construction is being challenged by recent events which reveal how deficits in stakeholder involvement, openness and democratic procedures can undermine risk management actions. Indeed, the global process most components of risk analysis may be radically called into question. Food safety has lately been a prominent issue, but now debates appear, or old debates are revisited in the domains of public health, consumer products safety, waste management, environmental risks, nuclear installations, automobile safety and pollution. To meet the growing pressures for efficiency, openness, accountability, and multi-partner communication in risk analysis, institutional changes are underway in many European countries. However, the need for stakeholders to develop better insight into the process may lead to an evolution of all the components of risks analysis, even in its most (technical' steps. For stakeholders of different professional background, political projects, and responsibilities, risk identification procedures must be rendered understandable, quantitative risk assessment must be intelligible and accommodated in action proposals, ranging from countermeasures to educational programs to insurance mechanisms. Management formats must be open to local and political input and other types of operational feedback. (authors)

  8. Enhancing the ecological risk assessment process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dale, Virginia H; Biddinger, Gregory R; Newman, Michael C; Oris, James T; Suter, Glenn W; Thompson, Timothy; Armitage, Thomas M; Meyer, Judith L; Allen-King, Richelle M; Burton, G Allen; Chapman, Peter M; Conquest, Loveday L; Fernandez, Ivan J; Landis, Wayne G; Master, Lawrence L; Mitsch, William J; Mueller, Thomas C; Rabeni, Charles F; Rodewald, Amanda D; Sanders, James G; van Heerden, Ivor L

    2008-07-01

    The Ecological Processes and Effects Committee of the US Environmental Protection Agency Science Advisory Board conducted a self-initiated study and convened a public workshop to characterize the state of the ecological risk assessment (ERA), with a view toward advancing the science and application of the process. That survey and analysis of ERA in decision making shows that such assessments have been most effective when clear management goals were included in the problem formulation; translated into information needs; and developed in collaboration with decision makers, assessors, scientists, and stakeholders. This process is best facilitated when risk managers, risk assessors, and stakeholders are engaged in an ongoing dialogue about problem formulation. Identification and acknowledgment of uncertainties that have the potential to profoundly affect the results and outcome of risk assessments also improves assessment effectiveness. Thus we suggest 1) through peer review of ERAs be conducted at the problem formulation stage and 2) the predictive power of risk-based decision making be expanded to reduce uncertainties through analytical and methodological approaches like life cycle analysis. Risk assessment and monitoring programs need better integration to reduce uncertainty and to evaluate risk management decision outcomes. Postdecision audit programs should be initiated to evaluate the environmental outcomes of risk-based decisions. In addition, a process should be developed to demonstrate how monitoring data can be used to reduce uncertainties. Ecological risk assessments should include the effects of chemical and nonchemical stressors at multiple levels of biological organization and spatial scale, and the extent and resolution of the pertinent scales and levels of organization should be explicitly considered during problem formulation. An approach to interpreting lines of evidence and weight of evidence is critically needed for complex assessments, and it would

  9. Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE), Version 5.0. Volume 5, Systems Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) tutorial manual

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sattison, M.B.; Russell, K.D.; Skinner, N.L.

    1994-07-01

    The Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE) refers to a set of several microcomputer programs that were developed to create and analyze probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) primarily for nuclear power plants. This volume is the tutorial manual for the Systems Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) System Version 5.0, a microcomputer-based system used to analyze the safety issues of a open-quotes familyclose quotes [i.e., a power plant, a manufacturing facility, any facility on which a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) might be performed]. A series of lessons is provided that guides the user through some basic steps common to most analyses performed with SARA. The example problems presented in the lessons build on one another, and in combination, lead the user through all aspects of SARA sensitivity analysis capabilities

  10. Imminent Cardiac Risk Assessment via Optical Intravascular Biochemical Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wetzel, D.; Wetzel, L; Wetzel, M; Lodder, R

    2009-01-01

    Heart disease is by far the biggest killer in the United States, and type II diabetes, which affects 8% of the U.S. population, is on the rise. In many cases, the acute coronary syndrome and/or sudden cardiac death occurs without warning. Atherosclerosis has known behavioral, genetic and dietary risk factors. However, our laboratory studies with animal models and human post-mortem tissue using FT-IR microspectroscopy reveal the chemical microstructure within arteries and in the arterial walls themselves. These include spectra obtained from the aortas of ApoE-/- knockout mice on sucrose and normal diets showing lipid deposition in the former case. Also pre-aneurysm chemical images of knockout mouse aorta walls, and spectra of plaque excised from a living human patient are shown for comparison. In keeping with the theme of the SPEC 2008 conference Spectroscopic Diagnosis of Disease this paper describes the background and potential value of a new catheter-based system to provide in vivo biochemical analysis of plaque in human coronary arteries. We report the following: (1) results of FT-IR microspectroscopy on animal models of vascular disease to illustrate the localized chemical distinctions between pathological and normal tissue, (2) current diagnostic techniques used for risk assessment of patients with potential unstable coronary syndromes, and (3) the advantages and limitations of each of these techniques illustrated with patent care histories, related in the first person, by the physician coauthors. Note that the physician comments clarify the contribution of each diagnostic technique to imminent cardiac risk assessment in a clinical setting, leading to the appreciation of what localized intravascular chemical analysis can contribute as an add-on diagnostic tool. The quality of medical imaging has improved dramatically since the turn of the century. Among clinical non-invasive diagnostic tools, laboratory tests of body fluids, EKG, and physical examination are

  11. Risk Assessment of Healthcare Waste by Preliminary Hazard Analysis Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pouran Morovati

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Introduction and purpose: Improper management of healthcare waste (HCW can pose considerable risks to human health and the environment and cause serious problems in developing countries such as Iran. In this study, we sought to determine the hazards of HCW in the public hospitals affiliated to Abadan School of Medicine using the preliminary hazard analysis (PHA method. Methods: In this descriptive and analytic study, health risk assessment of HCW in government hospitals affiliated to Abadan School of Medicine (4 public hospitals was carried out by using PHA in the summer of  2016. Results: We noted the high risk of sharps and infectious wastes. Considering the dual risk of injury and disease transmission, sharps were classified in the very high-risk group, and pharmaceutical and chemical and radioactive wastes were classified in the medium-risk group. Sharps posed the highest risk, while pharmaceutical and chemical wastes had the lowest risk. Among the various stages of waste management, the waste treatment stage was the most hazardous in all the studied hospitals. Conclusion: To diminish the risks associated with healthcare waste management in the studied hospitals, adequate training of healthcare workers and care providers, provision of suitable personal protective and transportation equipment, and supervision of the environmental health manager of hospitals should be considered by the authorities.  

  12. Hydrologic analysis for ecological risk assessment of watersheds with abandoned mine lands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gallagher, D.; Babendreier, J.; Cherry, D.

    1999-01-01

    As part of on-going study of acid mine drainage (AMD), a comprehensive ecological risk assessment was conducted in the Leading Creek Watershed in southeast Ohio. The watershed is influenced by agriculture and active and abandoned coal-mining operations. This work presents a broad overview of several quantitative measures of hydrology and hydraulic watershed properties available for in risk assessment and evaluates their relation to metrics of ecology. Data analysis included statistical comparisons of metrics of ecology, ecotoxicology, water quality, and physically based parameters describing land use, geomorphology, flow, velocity, and particle size. A multiple regression analysis indicated that abandoned mining operations dominated impacts upon aquatic ecology. It also indicated low flow velocity measurements and a ratio of maximum velocity to average velocity at low flow where helpful in describing variation in macroinvertebrate Total Taxa scores. Other key parameters also identified strong impact relationships with biodiversity trends and included pH, simple knowledge of any mining upstream, calculated % of the subshed covered by strip mines, and the measured depth of streambed sediments from site to site

  13. Risk assessment model for nuclear accident emergency protection countermeasure based on fuzzy matter-element analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xin Jing; Tang Huaqing; Zhang Yinghua; Zhang Limin

    2009-01-01

    A risk assessment model of nuclear accident emergency protection countermeasure based on fuzzy matter-element analysis and Euclid approach degree is proposed in the paper. The weight of assessed index is determined by information entropy and the scoring by experts, which could not only make full use of the inherent information of the indexes adequately, but reduce subjective assumption in the course of assessment effectively. The applied result shows that it is reasonable that the model is adopted to make risk assessment for nuclear accident emergency protective countermeasure,and it could be a kind of effective analytical method and decision making basis to choose the optimum protection countermeasure. (authors)

  14. Probabilistic risk analysis and terrorism risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ezell, Barry Charles; Bennett, Steven P; von Winterfeldt, Detlof; Sokolowski, John; Collins, Andrew J

    2010-04-01

    Since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and the subsequent establishment of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), considerable efforts have been made to estimate the risks of terrorism and the cost effectiveness of security policies to reduce these risks. DHS, industry, and the academic risk analysis communities have all invested heavily in the development of tools and approaches that can assist decisionmakers in effectively allocating limited resources across the vast array of potential investments that could mitigate risks from terrorism and other threats to the homeland. Decisionmakers demand models, analyses, and decision support that are useful for this task and based on the state of the art. Since terrorism risk analysis is new, no single method is likely to meet this challenge. In this article we explore a number of existing and potential approaches for terrorism risk analysis, focusing particularly on recent discussions regarding the applicability of probabilistic and decision analytic approaches to bioterrorism risks and the Bioterrorism Risk Assessment methodology used by the DHS and criticized by the National Academies and others.

  15. Stockholm Safety Conference. Analysis of the sessions on radiological protection, licensing and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gea, A.

    1981-01-01

    A summary of the sessions on radiological protection, licensing and risk assessment in the safety conference of Stockholm is presented. It is considered the new point of view of the nuclear safety, probabilistic analysis, components failures probability and accident analysis. They are included conclusions applicable in many cases to development countries. (author)

  16. Anthropic Risk Assessment on Biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piragnolo, M.; Pirotti, F.; Vettore, A.; Salogni, G.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology for risk assessment of anthropic activities on habitats and species. The method has been developed for Veneto Region, in order to simplify and improve the quality of EIA procedure (VINCA). Habitats and species, animals and plants, are protected by European Directive 92/43/EEC and 2009/147/EC but they are subject at hazard due to pollution produced by human activities. Biodiversity risks may conduct to deterioration and disturbance in ecological niches, with consequence of loss of biodiversity. Ecological risk assessment applied on Natura 2000 network, is needed to best practice of management and monitoring of environment and natural resources. Threats, pressure and activities, stress and indicators may be managed by geodatabase and analysed using GIS technology. The method used is the classic risk assessment in ecological context, and it defines the natural hazard as influence, element of risk as interference and vulnerability. Also it defines a new parameter called pressure. It uses risk matrix for the risk analysis on spatial and temporal scale. The methodology is qualitative and applies the precautionary principle in environmental assessment. The final product is a matrix which excludes the risk and could find application in the development of a territorial information system.

  17. Uncertainty analysis in the applications of nuclear probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Le Duy, T.D.

    2011-01-01

    The aim of this thesis is to propose an approach to model parameter and model uncertainties affecting the results of risk indicators used in the applications of nuclear Probabilistic Risk assessment (PRA). After studying the limitations of the traditional probabilistic approach to represent uncertainty in PRA model, a new approach based on the Dempster-Shafer theory has been proposed. The uncertainty analysis process of the proposed approach consists in five main steps. The first step aims to model input parameter uncertainties by belief and plausibility functions according to the data PRA model. The second step involves the propagation of parameter uncertainties through the risk model to lay out the uncertainties associated with output risk indicators. The model uncertainty is then taken into account in the third step by considering possible alternative risk models. The fourth step is intended firstly to provide decision makers with information needed for decision making under uncertainty (parametric and model) and secondly to identify the input parameters that have significant uncertainty contributions on the result. The final step allows the process to be continued in loop by studying the updating of beliefs functions given new data. The proposed methodology was implemented on a real but simplified application of PRA model. (author)

  18. Critical notes on microbiological risk assessment of food

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reij, M.W.; Schothorst, van M.

    2000-01-01

    Although numerous papers on Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) of food products have been published, a number of issues related to it remain unresolved. This paper explains the role of Microbiological Risk Assessment in the context of Risk Analysis as outlined by Codex Alimentarius. It reviews

  19. Tolerability of risk, safety assessment principles and their implications for probabilistic safety analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ewing, D.J.F.; Campbell, J.F.

    1994-01-01

    This paper gives a regulatory view of probabilistic safety assessment as seen by the Nuclear Installations Inspectorate (NII) and in the light of the general regulatory risk aims set out in the Health and Safety Executive's (HSE) The tolerability of risk from nuclear power stations (TOR) and in Safety assessment principles for nuclear plants (SAPs), prepared by NII on behalf of the HSE. Both of these publications were revised and republished in 1992. This paper describes the SAPs, together with the historical background, the motivation for review, the effects of the Sizewell and Hinkley Point C public inquiries, changes since the original versions, comparison with international standards and use in assessment. For new plant, probabilistic safety analysis (PSA) is seen as an essential tool in balancing the safety of the design and in demonstrating compliance with TOR and the SAPs. (Author)

  20. Risk assessment - black art or science?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moore, G.

    1988-01-01

    Measures of risk can be divided into two categories, those that observe or calculate the risk of a process or project, and those that rely on the level of risk as perceived by the people during the assessment. Collection of data of accidents (where cause and effect are obvious) and experiments on animals which can then be extrapolated to humans, are two ways of risk assessment. Mathematical models and computerized simulations, using either fault tree analysis or Monte Carlo methods are explained simply. Using these methods, experts are able to perceive risk fairly realistically. However, the general public's perception of risk is often quite different, as potential risk is assessed in different ways. The concept of tolerable risk is considered, particularly with reference to nuclear reactors such as Sizewell-B. The need to inform the public of safeguards and safety procedures so they have a better understanding of the risks of nuclear power is stressed. (U.K.)

  1. 7 CFR 2.71 - Director, Office of Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... Chief Economist § 2.71 Director, Office of Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis. (a) Delegations. Pursuant to § 2.29(a)(2), the following delegations of authority are by the Chief Economist to the Director... reserved to the Chief Economist: Review all proposed decisions having substantial economic policy...

  2. Bioassay-based risk assessment of complex mixtures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Donnelly, K.C.; Huebner, H.J.

    1996-01-01

    The baseline risk assessment often plays an integral role in various decision-making processes at Superfund sites. The present study reports on risk characterizations prepared for seven complex mixtures using biological and chemical analysis. Three of the samples (A, B, and C) were complex mixtures of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) extracted from coal tar; while four samples extracted from munitions-contaminated soil contained primarily nitroaromatic hydrocarbons. The chemical-based risk assessment ranked sample C as least toxic, while the risk associated with samples A and B was approximately equal. The microbial bioassay was in general agreement for the coal tar samples. The weighted activity of the coal tar extracts in Salmonella was 4,960 for sample C, and 162,000 and 206,000 for samples A and B, respectively. The bacterial mutagenicity of 2,4,6-trinitrotoluene contaminated soils exhibited an indirect correlation with chemical-based risk assessment. The aqueous extract of sample 004 induced 1,292 net revertants in Salmonella, while the estimated risk to ingestion and dermal adsorption was 2E-9. The data indicate that the chemical-based risk assessment accurately predicted the genotoxicity of the PAHs, while the accuracy of the risk assessment for munitions contaminated soils was limited due to the presence of metabolites of TNT degradation. The biological tests used in this research provide a valuable compliment to chemical analysis for characterizing the genotoxic risk of complex mixtures

  3. Methodology of environmental risk assessment management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saša T. Bakrač

    2012-04-01

    . and industrial activities that may pose threats to ecosystems, flora, fauna and humans. This model-concept gives a three-phase assessment where the assessor tries to determine whether a specific place may be subject to assessment, to characterize the level of risk and to confirm or refute the findings of the first phase, collecting information and corrective measures, or to establish basic requirements for environment protection. Risk assessment methodology - American concept: The third methodological approach to environmental risk assessment is developed by the U.S. Agency for Environmental Protection, 'U.S. EPA'. This model primarily involves the implementation of environmental risk assessment under the conditions of anthropogenic impact on environment, without aiming at solving problems of natural environmental risks, although this methodology can be applied in this environment segment as well. The methodology gives a clear distinction between a scientific (phase of estimation and a non-scientific (planning part of assessment. The phases of estimation given by this model are: problem formulation, risk analysis and risk characterization. Conclusion: Concepts and methodologies of all three models-concepts of assessment are mostly reduced to a common goal: how to reduce existing or avoid potential risks. However, it should be noted that the implementation of appropriate management and ecological risk assessment does not guarantee that risks will be avoided or that the implementation of these processes will be successful.

  4. Cardiovascular risk from water arsenic exposure in Vietnam: Application of systematic review and meta-regression analysis in chemical health risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phung, Dung; Connell, Des; Rutherford, Shannon; Chu, Cordia

    2017-06-01

    A systematic review (SR) and meta-analysis cannot provide the endpoint answer for a chemical risk assessment (CRA). The objective of this study was to apply SR and meta-regression (MR) analysis to address this limitation using a case study in cardiovascular risk from arsenic exposure in Vietnam. Published studies were searched from PubMed using the keywords of arsenic exposure and cardiovascular diseases (CVD). Random-effects meta-regression was applied to model the linear relationship between arsenic concentration in water and risk of CVD, and then the no-observable-adverse-effect level (NOAEL) were identified from the regression function. The probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) technique was applied to characterize risk of CVD due to arsenic exposure by estimating the overlapping coefficient between dose-response and exposure distribution curves. The risks were evaluated for groundwater, treated and drinking water. A total of 8 high quality studies for dose-response and 12 studies for exposure data were included for final analyses. The results of MR suggested a NOAEL of 50 μg/L and a guideline of 5 μg/L for arsenic in water which valued as a half of NOAEL and guidelines recommended from previous studies and authorities. The results of PRA indicated that the observed exposure level with exceeding CVD risk was 52% for groundwater, 24% for treated water, and 10% for drinking water in Vietnam, respectively. The study found that systematic review and meta-regression can be considered as an ideal method to chemical risk assessment due to its advantages to bring the answer for the endpoint question of a CRA. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Assessing Extinction Risk: Integrating Genetic Information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jason Dunham

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available Risks of population extinction have been estimated using a variety of methods incorporating information from different spatial and temporal scales. We briefly consider how several broad classes of extinction risk assessments, including population viability analysis, incidence functions, and ranking methods integrate information on different temporal and spatial scales. In many circumstances, data from surveys of neutral genetic variability within, and among, populations can provide information useful for assessing extinction risk. Patterns of genetic variability resulting from past and present ecological and demographic events, can indicate risks of extinction that are otherwise difficult to infer from ecological and demographic analyses alone. We provide examples of how patterns of neutral genetic variability, both within, and among populations, can be used to corroborate and complement extinction risk assessments.

  6. A framework for risk assessment on lean production implementation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giuliano Almeida Marodin

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The organizational and technical complexity of implementing the lean principles and practices can become an extensively time consuming journey with few benefits. We argue that risk assessment can aid on the understanding and management of the major difficulties on the Lean production implementation (LPI. Thus, this paper proposes a framework for risk assessment on the LPI process. The literature review permitted to adapt the risk assessment steps to the characteristics of the LPI and develop data collection and analysis procedures for each step. The Sociotechnical systems (STS theory was brought in to improve the understanding of the context’s characteristics on the proposed framework because it has a major influence on the LPI. The framework was has five steps: (a defining the unit of analysis; (b describing the context; (c risk identification; (d risk analysis; and (e risk relationships modeling.

  7. Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kinchin, G.H.

    1983-01-01

    After defining risk and introducing the concept of individual and societal risk, the author considers each of these, restricting considerations to risk of death. Some probabilities of death arising from various causes are quoted, and attention drawn to the care necessary in making comparisons between sets of data and to the distinction between voluntary and involuntary categories and between early and delayed deaths. The presentation of information on societal risk is discussed and examples given. The history of quantified risk assessment is outlined, particularly related to the nuclear industry, the process of assessing risk discussed: identification of hazard causes, the development of accident chains and the use of event trees, the evaluation of probability through the collection of data and their use with fault trees, and the assessment of consequences of hazards in terms of fatalities. Reference is made to the human element and common-made failures, and to studies supporting the development of reliability assessment techniques. Acceptance criteria are discussed for individual and societal risk in the nuclear field, and it is shown that proposed criteria lead to risks conservative by comparison with risks from day-to-day accidents and other potentially hazardous industries. (U.K.)

  8. A shortened version of the THERP/Handbook approach to human reliability analysis for probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Swain, A.D.

    1986-01-01

    The approach to human reliability analysis (HRA) known as THERP/Handbook has been applied to several probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) of nuclear power plants (NPPs) and other complex systems. The approach is based on a thorough task analysis of the man-machine interfaces, including the interactions among the people, involved in the operations being assessed. The idea is to assess fully the underlying performance shaping factors (PSFs) and dependence effects which result either in reliable or unreliable human performance

  9. Probabilistic risk analysis in chemical engineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmalz, F.

    1991-01-01

    In risk analysis in the chemical industry, recognising potential risks is considered more important than assessing their quantitative extent. Even in assessing risks, emphasis is not on the probability involved but on the possible extent. Qualitative assessment has proved valuable here. Probabilistic methods are used in individual cases where the wide implications make it essential to be able to assess the reliability of safety precautions. In this case, assessment therefore centres on the reliability of technical systems and not on the extent of a chemical risk. 7 figs

  10. Risk Assessment Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

  11. HANFORD SAFETY ANALYSIS & RISK ASSESSMENT HANDBOOK (SARAH)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    EVANS, C B

    2004-12-21

    The purpose of the Hanford Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) is to support the development of safety basis documentation for Hazard Category 2 and 3 (HC-2 and 3) U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear facilities to meet the requirements of 10 CFR 830, ''Nuclear Safety Management''. Subpart B, ''Safety Basis Requirements.'' Consistent with DOE-STD-3009-94, Change Notice 2, ''Preparation Guide for U.S. Department of Energy Nonreactor Nuclear Facility Documented Safety Analyses'' (STD-3009), and DOE-STD-3011-2002, ''Guidance for Preparation of Basis for Interim Operation (BIO) Documents'' (STD-3011), the Hanford SARAH describes methodology for performing a safety analysis leading to development of a Documented Safety Analysis (DSA) and derivation of Technical Safety Requirements (TSR), and provides the information necessary to ensure a consistently rigorous approach that meets DOE expectations. The DSA and TSR documents, together with the DOE-issued Safety Evaluation Report (SER), are the basic components of facility safety basis documentation. For HC-2 or 3 nuclear facilities in long-term surveillance and maintenance (S&M), for decommissioning activities, where source term has been eliminated to the point that only low-level, residual fixed contamination is present, or for environmental remediation activities outside of a facility structure, DOE-STD-1120-98, ''Integration of Environment, Safety, and Health into Facility Disposition Activities'' (STD-1120), may serve as the basis for the DSA. HC-2 and 3 environmental remediation sites also are subject to the hazard analysis methodologies of this standard.

  12. Money laundering: correlation between risk assessment and suspicious transactions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sonja Cindori

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The risk assessment system was introduced in the Republic of Croatia in 2009, as a result of harmonization with international standards, especially the Directive 2005/60/EC on the prevention of the use of the financial system for the purpose of money laundering and terrorist financing. Risk assessment is an extensive concept which requires not only a legislative framework, but also the application of numerous criteria for its effective implementation in practice. Among these criteria are suspicious transactions, closely related to the assessment of the customer, transaction, product or service.The undeniable contribution of suspicious transactions to the quality of the risk assessment system will be confirmed by a statistical analysis of a number of West and East European countries. A combination of strict, but sufficiently flexible legal provisions governing the system for prevention of money laundering and terrorist financing and a statistical analysis of reported suspicious transactions will lead to conclusions that either support or represent criticism of the efficiency of application of the risk assessment system in practice.The aforementioned statistical analysis will show whether suspicious transactions are a reliable criterion for the risk assessment analysis, and whether they can be considered the only such criterion. There is a possibility that the findings of the analysis will be contradictory to those of some international studies.

  13. Assessing the impact of a combined analysis of four common low-risk genetic variants on autism risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carayol Jerome

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Autism is a complex disorder characterized by deficits involving communication, social interaction, and repetitive and restrictive patterns of behavior. Twin studies have shown that autism is strongly heritable, suggesting a strong genetic component. In other disease states with a complex etiology, such as type 2 diabetes, cancer and cardiovascular disease, combined analysis of multiple genetic variants in a genetic score has helped to identify individuals at high risk of disease. Genetic scores are designed to test for association of genetic markers with disease. Method The accumulation of multiple risk alleles markedly increases the risk of being affected, and compared with studying polymorphisms individually, it improves the identification of subgroups of individuals at greater risk. In the present study, we show that this approach can be applied to autism by specifically looking at a high-risk population of children who have siblings with autism. A two-sample study design and the generation of a genetic score using multiple independent genes were used to assess the risk of autism in a high-risk population. Results In both samples, odds ratios (ORs increased significantly as a function of the number of risk alleles, with a genetic score of 8 being associated with an OR of 5.54 (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.45 to 12.49. The sensitivities and specificities for each genetic score were similar in both analyses, and the resultant area under the receiver operating characteristic curves were identical (0.59. Conclusions These results suggest that the accumulation of multiple risk alleles in a genetic score is a useful strategy for assessing the risk of autism in siblings of affected individuals, and may be better than studying single polymorphisms for identifying subgroups of individuals with significantly greater risk.

  14. A perspective of PC-based probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sattison, M.B.; Rasmuson, D.M.; Robinson, R.C.; Russell, K.D.; Van Siclen, V.S.

    1987-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) information has been under-utilized in the past due to the large effort required to input the PRA data and the large expense of the computers needed to run PRA codes. The microcomputer-based Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) and the System Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) System, under development at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, have greatly enhanced the ability of managers to use PRA techniques in their decision-making. IRRAS is a tool that allows an analyst to create, modify, update, and reanalyze a plant PRA to keep the risk assessment current with the plant's configuration and operation. The SARA system is used to perform sensitivity studies on the results of a PRA. This type of analysis can be used to evaluate proposed changes to a plant or its operation. The success of these two software projects demonstrate that risk information can be made readily available to those that need it. This is the first step in the development of a true risk management capability

  15. Risk assessment and multi-criteria decision-making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Segerstaahl, Boris

    1989-01-01

    Risk assessment and analysis is connected to the policy framework used in decision-making on issues concerning technological risk. A review of the problems created by different views concerning the fundamental structure of risk concepts is used as a way to describe the structure of risk assessment studies as used in decision-making. The fundamental difference between judgments based on assessments and on perceptions is analyzed in order to explain the dynamics of the decision making process. A proposed effort to study the energy sector as a dynamic endless game implementing a mixed strategy is suggested. (author)

  16. Risk assessment: An employer's perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, K.C.

    1992-01-01

    There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime

  17. Risk assessment: An employer's perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williams, K C [Exxon International (United States)

    1992-07-01

    There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime.

  18. Comparative Analysis of Fuzzy Set Defuzzification Methods in the Context of Ecological Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Užga-Rebrovs Oļegs

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Fuzzy inference systems are widely used in various areas of human activity. Their most widespread use lies in the field of fuzzy control of technical devices of different kind. Another direction of using fuzzy inference systems is modelling and assessment of different kind of risks under insufficient or missing objective initial data. Fuzzy inference is concluded by the procedure of defuzzification of the resulting fuzzy sets. A large number of techniques for implementing the defuzzification procedure are available nowadays. The paper presents a comparative analysis of some widespread methods of fuzzy set defuzzification, and proposes the most appropriate methods in the context of ecological risk assessment.

  19. Probabilistic risk assessment: Number 219

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bari, R.A.

    1985-01-01

    This report describes a methodology for analyzing the safety of nuclear power plants. A historical overview of plants in the US is provided, and past, present, and future nuclear safety and risk assessment are discussed. A primer on nuclear power plants is provided with a discussion of pressurized water reactors (PWR) and boiling water reactors (BWR) and their operation and containment. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), utilizing both event-tree and fault-tree analysis, is discussed as a tool in reactor safety, decision making, and communications. (FI)

  20. A multi-criteria decision analysis approach to assessing malaria risk in northern South America

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Temitope O. Alimi

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Malaria control in South America has vastly improved in the past decade, leading to a decrease in the malaria burden. Despite the progress, large parts of the continent continue to be at risk of malaria transmission, especially in northern South America. The objectives of this study were to assess the risk of malaria transmission and vector exposure in northern South America using multi-criteria decision analysis. Methods The risk of malaria transmission and vector exposure in northern South America was assessed using multi-criteria decision analysis, in which expert opinions were taken on the key environmental and population risk factors. Results Results from our risk maps indicated areas of moderate-to-high risk along rivers in the Amazon basin, along the coasts of the Guianas, the Pacific coast of Colombia and northern Colombia, in parts of Peru and Bolivia and within the Brazilian Amazon. When validated with occurrence records for malaria, An. darlingi, An. albimanus and An. nuneztovari s.l., t-test results indicated that risk scores at occurrence locations were significantly higher (p < 0.0001 than a control group of geographically random points. Conclusion In this study, we produced risk maps based on expert opinion on the spatial representation of risk of potential vector exposure and malaria transmission. The findings provide information to the public health decision maker/policy makers to give additional attention to the spatial planning of effective vector control measures. Therefore, as the region tackles the challenge of malaria elimination, prioritizing areas for interventions by using spatially accurate, high-resolution (1 km or less risk maps may guide targeted control and help reduce the disease burden in the region.

  1. A framework for techno-economic & environmental sustainability analysis by risk assessment for conceptual process evaluation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Loureiro da Costa Lira Gargalo, Carina; Sin, Gürkan; Carvalho, Ana

    2016-01-01

    for techno-economic and environmental sustainability analysis through risk assessment is proposed for the early-stage design and screening of conceptual process alternatives. The alternatives within the design space are analyzed following the framework’s work-flow, which targets the following: (i) quantify...... the economic risk; (ii) perform the monetary valuation of environmental impact categories under uncertainty; (iii) quantify the potential environmental risk; (iv) measure the alternatives’ eco-efficiency identifying possible trade-offs; and, lastly (v) propose a joint risk assessment matrix......The need to achieve a sustainable process performance has become increasingly important in order to keep a competitive advantage in the global markets. Development of comprehensive and systematic methods to accomplish this goal is the subject of this work. To this end, a multi-level framework...

  2. A framework for techno-economic & environmental sustainability analysis by risk assessment for conceptual process evaluation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Loureiro da Costa Lira Gargalo, Carina; Sin, Gürkan; Carvalho, Ana

    2016-01-01

    the economic risk; (ii) perform the monetary valuation of environmental impact categories under uncertainty; (iii) quantify the potential environmental risk; (iv) measure the alternatives’ eco-efficiency identifying possible trade-offs; and, lastly (v) propose a joint risk assessment matrix......The need to achieve a sustainable process performance has become increasingly important in order to keep a competitive advantage in the global markets. Development of comprehensive and systematic methods to accomplish this goal is the subject of this work. To this end, a multi-level framework...... for techno-economic and environmental sustainability analysis through risk assessment is proposed for the early-stage design and screening of conceptual process alternatives. The alternatives within the design space are analyzed following the framework’s work-flow, which targets the following: (i) quantify...

  3. Risk assessment in a foundry unit by energy trace and barrier analysis method (ETBA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.A. Ayati

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Background and aimsAs a Development of Industrial process, human, environment,equipment, material and validity of system has been exposed to hazardous conditions. Regards of32.3 percent of occupations in industries, this study focused on risk assessment of foundry unit byenergy trace and barrier analysis (ETBA method and presented approaches to control of accident.Methodsthe recent study is as a case study one to risk assessment in a foundry unit in Qazvinindustrial city in1387. In this study risks were founded by ETBA method and evaluated by MILSTD-882B. Data were collected by direct observations, interview with workers and supervisorand engineers, walking-talking through method, documents investigation of operationalprocessors, preventive maintenances, equipment technical properties, accidental and medicaldocuments. Finally ETBA worksheets completed.Findingstotally 154 risks has been found. 40 from total are been unacceptable risk, 68unfavorable and also 46 acceptable but with remediation action. Casting workshop had risks morethan other workshops (with 74 identified risks.Potential and heat energies were founded as mosthazardous energies, with respectively 51 and 38 risk cases.ConclusionThis study recommended to be done actions for identification and control risk,such as: safety training, occupation training, preventive maintenance, contract safety, safetycommunication and safety audit group.

  4. Aspects regarding explosion risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Părăian Mihaela

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Explosive risk occurs in all activities involving flammable substances in the form of gases, vapors, mists or dusts which, in mixture with air, can generate an explosive atmosphere. As explosions can cause human losses and huge material damage, the assessment of the explosion risk and the establishment of appropriate measures to reduce it to acceptable levels according to the standards and standards in force is of particular importance for the safety and health of people and goods.There is no yet a recognized method of assessing the explosion risk, but regardless of the applied method, the likelihood of an explosive atmosphere occurrence has to be determined, together with the occurrence of an efficient ignition source and the magnitude of foreseeable consequences. In assessment processes, consequences analysis has a secondary importance since it’s likely that explosions would always involve considerable damage, starting from important material damages and up to human damages that could lead to death.The purpose of the work is to highlight the important principles and elements to be taken into account for a specific risk assessment. An essential element in assessing the risk of explosion in workplaces where explosive atmospheres may occur is technical installations and personal protective equipment (PPE that must be designed, manufactured, installed and maintained so that they cannot generate a source of ignition. Explosion prevention and protection requirements are governed by specific norms and standards, and a main part of the explosion risk assessment is related to the assessment of the compliance of the equipment / installation with these requirements.

  5. Cumulative Risk Assessment (CRA): transforming the way we assess health risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Pamela R D; Dotson, G Scott; Maier, Andrew

    2012-10-16

    Human health risk assessments continue to evolve and now focus on the need for cumulative risk assessment (CRA). CRA involves assessing the combined risk from coexposure to multiple chemical and nonchemical stressors for varying health effects. CRAs are broader in scope than traditional chemical risk assessments because they allow for a more comprehensive evaluation of the interaction between different stressors and their combined impact on human health. Future directions of CRA include greater emphasis on local-level community-based assessments; integrating environmental, occupational, community, and individual risk factors; and identifying and implementing common frameworks and risk metrics for incorporating multiple stressors.

  6. Integrated genomic and BMI analysis for type 2 diabetes risk assessment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dayanara eLebrón-Aldea

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Type 2 Diabetes (T2D is a chronic disease arising from the development of insulin absence or resistance within the body, and a complex interplay of environmental and genetic factors. The incidence of T2D has increased throughout the last few decades, together with the occurrence of the obesity epidemic. The consideration of variants identified by Genome Wide Association Studies (GWAS into risk assessment models for T2D could aid in the identification of at-risk patients who could benefit from preventive medicine. In this study, we build several risk assessment models, and evaluated them with two different classification approaches (Logistic Regression and Neural Networks, to measure the effect of including genetic information in the prediction of T2D. We used data from to the Original and the Offspring cohorts of the Framingham Heart Study, which provides phenotypic and genetic information for 5,245 subjects (4,306 controls and 939 cases. Models were built by using several covariates: gender, exposure time, cohort, body mass index (BMI, and 65 established T2D-associated SNPs. We fitted Logistic Regressions and Bayesian Regularized Neural Network and then assessed their predictive ability by using a ten-fold cross validation. We found that the inclusion of genetic information into the risk assessment models increased the predictive ability by 2%, when compared to the baseline model. Furthermore, the models that included BMI at the onset of diabetes as a possible effector, gave an improvement of 6% in the area under the curve derived from the ROC analysis. The highest AUC achieved (0.75 belonged to the model that included BMI, and a genetic score based on the 65 established T2D-associated SNPs. Finally, the inclusion of SNPs and BMI raised predictive ability in all models as expected; however, results from the AUC in Neural Networks and Logistic Regression did not differ significantly in their prediction accuracy.

  7. Simulation for Prediction of Entry Article Demise (SPEAD): An Analysis Tool for Spacecraft Safety Analysis and Ascent/Reentry Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ling, Lisa

    2014-01-01

    For the purpose of performing safety analysis and risk assessment for a potential off-nominal atmospheric reentry resulting in vehicle breakup, a synthesis of trajectory propagation coupled with thermal analysis and the evaluation of node failure is required to predict the sequence of events, the timeline, and the progressive demise of spacecraft components. To provide this capability, the Simulation for Prediction of Entry Article Demise (SPEAD) analysis tool was developed. The software and methodology have been validated against actual flights, telemetry data, and validated software, and safety/risk analyses were performed for various programs using SPEAD. This report discusses the capabilities, modeling, validation, and application of the SPEAD analysis tool.

  8. Risk assessment for enterprise resource planning (ERP) system implementations: a fault tree analysis approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Yajun; Skibniewski, Miroslaw J.

    2013-08-01

    Enterprise resource planning (ERP) system implementations are often characterised with large capital outlay, long implementation duration, and high risk of failure. In order to avoid ERP implementation failure and realise the benefits of the system, sound risk management is the key. This paper proposes a probabilistic risk assessment approach for ERP system implementation projects based on fault tree analysis, which models the relationship between ERP system components and specific risk factors. Unlike traditional risk management approaches that have been mostly focused on meeting project budget and schedule objectives, the proposed approach intends to address the risks that may cause ERP system usage failure. The approach can be used to identify the root causes of ERP system implementation usage failure and quantify the impact of critical component failures or critical risk events in the implementation process.

  9. Integration of human reliability analysis into the probabilistic risk assessment process: Phase 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bell, B.J.; Vickroy, S.C.

    1984-10-01

    A research program was initiated to develop a testable set of analytical procedures for integrating human reliability analysis (HRA) into the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) process to more adequately assess the overall impact of human performance on risk. In this three-phase program, stand-alone HRA/PRA analytic procedures will be developed and field evaluated to provide improved methods, techniques, and models for applying quantitative and qualitative human error data which systematically integrate HRA principles, techniques, and analyses throughout the entire PRA process. Phase 1 of the program involved analysis of state-of-the-art PRAs to define the structures and processes currently in use in the industry. Phase 2 research will involve developing a new or revised PRA methodology which will enable more efficient regulation of the industry using quantitative or qualitative results of the PRA. Finally, Phase 3 will be to field test those procedures to assure that the results generated by the new methodologies will be usable and acceptable to the NRC. This paper briefly describes the first phase of the program and outlines the second

  10. Use of risk assessment methods for security design and analysis of nuclear and radioactive facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Andrade, Marcos C.; Jordao, Elizabete

    2011-01-01

    The objective of this work is to evaluate the applicability of risk assessment methods for analyzing the physical protection of nuclear and radioactive facilities. One of the important processes for physical protection in nuclear and radioactive facilities is the identifying of areas containing nuclear materials, structures, systems or components to be protected from sabotage, which could directly or indirectly lead to unacceptable radiological consequences. A survey of the international guidelines and recommendations about vital area identification, design basis threat (DBT), and the security of nuclear and radioactive facilities was carried out. The traditional methods used for quantitative risk assessment, like FMEA (Failure Mode and Effect Analysis), Event and Decision Trees, Fault and Success Trees, Vulnerability Assessment, Monte Carlo Simulation, Probabilistic Safety Assessment, Scenario Analysis, and Game Theory, among others, are highlighted. The applicability of such techniques to security issues, their pros and cons, the general resources needed to implement them, as data or support software, are analyzed. Finally, an approach to security design and analysis, beginning with a qualitative and preliminary examination to determine the range of possible scenarios, outcomes, and the systems to be included in the analyses, and proceeding to a progressively use of more quantitative techniques is presented. (author)

  11. Information Security Risk Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Peltier, Thomas R

    2010-01-01

    Offers readers with the knowledge and the skill-set needed to achieve a highly effective risk analysis assessment. This title demonstrates how to identify threats and then determine if those threats pose a real risk. It is suitable for industry and academia professionals.

  12. Assessing scenario and parametric uncertainties in risk analysis: a model uncertainty audit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tarantola, S.; Saltelli, A.; Draper, D.

    1999-01-01

    In the present study a process of model audit is addressed on a computational model used for predicting maximum radiological doses to humans in the field of nuclear waste disposal. Global uncertainty and sensitivity analyses are employed to assess output uncertainty and to quantify the contribution of parametric and scenario uncertainties to the model output. These tools are of fundamental importance for risk analysis and decision making purposes

  13. Weighted normalized risk factor for floods risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ashraf Mohamed Elmoustafa

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Multi Criteria Analysis (MCA describes any structured approach used to determine overall preferences among alternative options, where options accomplish certain or several objectives. The flood protection of properties is a highly important issue due to the damage, danger and other hazards associated to it to human life, properties, and environment. To determine the priority of execution of protection works for any project, many aspects should be considered in order to decide the areas to start the data collection and analysis with. Multi criteria analysis techniques were tested and evaluated for the purpose of flood risk assessment, hydro-morphological parameters were used in this analysis. Finally a suitable technique was chosen and tested to be adopted as a mark of flood risk level and results were presented.

  14. Comparative risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niehaus, F.

    1988-01-01

    In this paper, the risks of various energy systems are discussed considering severe accidents analysis, particularly the probabilistic safety analysis, and probabilistic safety criteria, and the applications of these criteria and analysis. The comparative risk analysis has demonstrated that the largest source of risk in every society is from daily small accidents. Nevertheless, we have to be more concerned about severe accidents. The comparative risk analysis of five different energy systems (coal, oil, gas, LWR and STEC (Solar)) for the public has shown that the main sources of risks are coal and oil. The latest comparative risk study of various energy has been conducted in the USA and has revealed that the number of victims from coal is 42 as many than victims from nuclear. A study for severe accidents from hydro-dams in United States has estimated the probability of dam failures at 1 in 10,000 years and the number of victims between 11,000 and 260,000. The average occupational risk from coal is one fatal accident in 1,000 workers/year. The probabilistic safety analysis is a method that can be used to assess nuclear energy risks, and to analyze the severe accidents, and to model all possible accident sequences and consequences. The 'Fault tree' analysis is used to know the probability of failure of the different systems at each point of accident sequences and to calculate the probability of risks. After calculating the probability of failure, the criteria for judging the numerical results have to be developed, that is the quantitative and qualitative goals. To achieve these goals, several systems have been devised by various countries members of AIEA. The probabilistic safety ana-lysis method has been developed by establishing a computer program permit-ting to know different categories of safety related information. 19 tabs. (author)

  15. Model based risk assessment - the CORAS framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gran, Bjoern Axel; Fredriksen, Rune; Thunem, Atoosa P-J.

    2004-04-15

    Traditional risk analysis and assessment is based on failure-oriented models of the system. In contrast to this, model-based risk assessment (MBRA) utilizes success-oriented models describing all intended system aspects, including functional, operational and organizational aspects of the target. The target models are then used as input sources for complementary risk analysis and assessment techniques, as well as a basis for the documentation of the assessment results. The EU-funded CORAS project developed a tool-supported methodology for the application of MBRA in security-critical systems. The methodology has been tested with successful outcome through a series of seven trial within the telemedicine and ecommerce areas. The CORAS project in general and the CORAS application of MBRA in particular have contributed positively to the visibility of model-based risk assessment and thus to the disclosure of several potentials for further exploitation of various aspects within this important research field. In that connection, the CORAS methodology's possibilities for further improvement towards utilization in more complex architectures and also in other application domains such as the nuclear field can be addressed. The latter calls for adapting the framework to address nuclear standards such as IEC 60880 and IEC 61513. For this development we recommend applying a trial driven approach within the nuclear field. The tool supported approach for combining risk analysis and system development also fits well with the HRP proposal for developing an Integrated Design Environment (IDE) providing efficient methods and tools to support control room systems design. (Author)

  16. [Status Quo, Uncertainties and Trends Analysis of Environmental Risk Assessment for PFASs].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, Xue-wen; Li, Li; Wang, Jie; Cao, Yan; Liu, Jian-guo

    2015-08-01

    This study systematically combed the definition and change of terms, category and application of perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) in international academic, focusing on the environmental risk and exposure assessment of PFASs, to comprehensively analyze the current status, uncertainties and trends of PFASs' environmental risk assessment. Overall, the risk assessment of PFASs is facing a complicated situation involving complex substance pedigrees, various types, complex derivative relations, confidential business information and risk uncertainties. Although the environmental risk of long-chain PFASs has been widely recognized, the short-chain PFASs and short-chain fluorotelomers as their alternatives still have many research gaps and uncertainties in environmental hazards, environmental fate and exposure risk. The scope of risk control of PFASs in the international community is still worth discussing. Due to trade secrets and market competition, the chemical structure and risk information of PFASs' alternatives are generally lack of openness and transparency. The environmental risk of most fluorinated and non-fluorinated alternatives is not clear. In total, the international research on PFASs risk assessment gradually transfer from long-chain perfluoroalkyl acids (PFAAs) represented by perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS) and perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) to short-chain PFAAs, and then extends to other PFASs. The main problems to be solved urgently and researched continuously are: the environmental hazardous assessment indexes, such as bioaccumulation and environmental migration, optimization method, the environmental release and multimedia environmental fate of short-chain PFASs; the environmental fate of neutral PFASs and the transformation and contribution as precursors of short-chain PFASs; the risk identification and assessment of fluorinated and non-fluorinated alternatives of PFASs.

  17. Fall risk assessment: retrospective analysis of Morse Fall Scale scores in Portuguese hospitalized adult patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sardo, Pedro Miguel Garcez; Simões, Cláudia Sofia Oliveira; Alvarelhão, José Joaquim Marques; Simões, João Filipe Fernandes Lindo; Melo, Elsa Maria de Oliveira Pinheiro de

    2016-08-01

    The Morse Fall Scale is used in several care settings for fall risk assessment and supports the implementation of preventive nursing interventions. Our work aims to analyze the Morse Fall Scale scores of Portuguese hospitalized adult patients in association with their characteristics, diagnoses and length of stay. Retrospective cohort analysis of Morse Fall Scale scores of 8356 patients hospitalized during 2012. Data were associated to age, gender, type of admission, specialty units, length of stay, patient discharge, and ICD-9 diagnosis. Elderly patients, female, with emergency service admission, at medical units and/or with longer length of stays were more frequently included in the risk group for falls. ICD-9 diagnosis may also be an important risk factor. More than a half of hospitalized patients had "medium" to "high" risk of falling during the length of stay, which determines the implementation and maintenance of protocoled preventive nursing interventions throughout hospitalization. There are several fall risk factors not assessed by Morse Fall Scale. There were no statistical differences in Morse Fall Scale score between the first and the last assessment. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Avalanche risk assessment in Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komarov, Anton; Seliverstov, Yury; Sokratov, Sergey; Glazovskaya, Tatiana; Turchaniniva, Alla

    2017-04-01

    . The case studies of specific territories are performed using large-scale risk assessment methods. Thus, we discuss these problems by presenting an avalanche risk assessment approach on example of the developing but poorly researched ski resort areas in the North Caucasus. The suggested method includes the formulas to calculate collective and individual avalanche risk. The results of risk analysis are shown in quantitative data that can be used to determine levels of avalanche risk (acceptable, admissible and unacceptable) and to suggest methods to decrease the individual risk to acceptable level or better. It makes possible to compare risk quantitative data obtained from different mountain regions, analyze it and evaluate the economic feasibility of protection measures. At present, we are developing methods of avalanche risk assessment in economic performance. It conceder costs of objects located in avalanche prone area, traffic density values and probability of financial loss.

  19. Operational risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKim, Vicky L

    2017-06-01

    In the world of risk management, which encompasses the business continuity disciplines, many types of risk require evaluation. Financial risk is most often the primary focus, followed by product and market risks. Another critical area, which typically lacks a thorough review or may be overlooked, is operational risk. This category encompasses many risk exposure types including those around building structures and systems, environmental issues, nature, neighbours, clients, regulatory compliance, network, data security and so on. At times, insurance carriers will assess internal hazards, but seldom do these assessments include more than a cursory look at other types of operational risk. In heavily regulated environments, risk assessments are required but may not always include thorough assessments of operational exposures. Vulnerabilities may linger or go unnoticed, only to become the catalyst for a business disruption at a later time, some of which are so severe that business recovery becomes nearly impossible. Businesses may suffer loss of clients as the result of a prolonged disruption of services. Comprehensive operational risk assessments can assist in identifying such vulnerabilities, exposures and threats so that the risk can be minimised or removed. This paper lays out how an assessment of this type can be successfully conducted.

  20. Systematic analysis of natural hazards along infrastructure networks using a GIS-tool for risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baruffini, Mirko

    2010-05-01

    Due to the topographical conditions in Switzerland, the highways and the railway lines are frequently exposed to natural hazards as rockfalls, debris flows, landslides, avalanches and others. With the rising incidence of those natural hazards, protection measures become an important political issue. However, they are costly, and maximal protection is most probably not economically feasible. Furthermore risks are distributed in space and time. Consequently, important decision problems to the public sector decision makers are derived. This asks for a high level of surveillance and preservation along the transalpine lines. Efficient protection alternatives can be obtained consequently considering the concept of integral risk management. Risk analysis, as the central part of risk management, has become gradually a generally accepted approach for the assessment of current and future scenarios (Loat & Zimmermann 2004). The procedure aims at risk reduction which can be reached by conventional mitigation on one hand and the implementation of land-use planning on the other hand: a combination of active and passive mitigation measures is applied to prevent damage to buildings, people and infrastructures. With a Geographical Information System adapted to run with a tool developed to manage Risk analysis it is possible to survey the data in time and space, obtaining an important system for managing natural risks. As a framework, we adopt the Swiss system for risk analysis of gravitational natural hazards (BUWAL 1999). It offers a complete framework for the analysis and assessment of risks due to natural hazards, ranging from hazard assessment for gravitational natural hazards, such as landslides, collapses, rockfalls, floodings, debris flows and avalanches, to vulnerability assessment and risk analysis, and the integration into land use planning at the cantonal and municipality level. The scheme is limited to the direct consequences of natural hazards. Thus, we develop a

  1. Risk assessment techniques with applicability in marine engineering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudenko, E.; Panaitescu, F. V.; Panaitescu, M.

    2015-11-01

    Nowadays risk management is a carefully planned process. The task of risk management is organically woven into the general problem of increasing the efficiency of business. Passive attitude to risk and awareness of its existence are replaced by active management techniques. Risk assessment is one of the most important stages of risk management, since for risk management it is necessary first to analyze and evaluate risk. There are many definitions of this notion but in general case risk assessment refers to the systematic process of identifying the factors and types of risk and their quantitative assessment, i.e. risk analysis methodology combines mutually complementary quantitative and qualitative approaches. Purpose of the work: In this paper we will consider as risk assessment technique Fault Tree analysis (FTA). The objectives are: understand purpose of FTA, understand and apply rules of Boolean algebra, analyse a simple system using FTA, FTA advantages and disadvantages. Research and methodology: The main purpose is to help identify potential causes of system failures before the failures actually occur. We can evaluate the probability of the Top event.The steps of this analize are: the system's examination from Top to Down, the use of symbols to represent events, the use of mathematical tools for critical areas, the use of Fault tree logic diagrams to identify the cause of the Top event. Results: In the finally of study it will be obtained: critical areas, Fault tree logical diagrams and the probability of the Top event. These results can be used for the risk assessment analyses.

  2. Operationalization Of The Professional Risks Assessment Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivascu, Victoria Larisa; Cirjaliu, Bianca; Draghici, Anca

    2015-07-01

    Professional risks assessment approach (integration of analysis and evaluation processes) is linked with the general concerns of nowadays companies for their employees' health and safety assurances, in the context of organizations sustainable development. The paper presents an approach for the operationalization of the professional risk assessment activity in companies through the implementation and use of the OnRisk platform (this have been tested in some industrial companies). The short presentation of the relevant technical reports and statistics on OSH management at the European Union level underlines the need for the development of a professional risks assessment. Finally, there have been described the designed and developed OnRisk platform as a web platform together with some case studies that have validate the created tool.

  3. Assessing population exposure for landslide risk analysis using dasymetric cartography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, Ricardo A. C.; Oliveira, Sergio C.; Zezere, Jose L.

    2015-04-01

    Exposed Population is a major topic that needs to be taken into account in a full landslide risk analysis. Usually, risk analysis is based on an accounting of inhabitants number or inhabitants density, applied over statistical or administrative terrain units, such as NUTS or parishes. However, this kind of approach may skew the obtained results underestimating the importance of population, mainly in territorial units with predominance of rural occupation. Furthermore, the landslide susceptibility scores calculated for each terrain unit are frequently more detailed and accurate than the location of the exposed population inside each territorial unit based on Census data. These drawbacks are not the ideal setting when landslide risk analysis is performed for urban management and emergency planning. Dasymetric cartography, which uses a parameter or set of parameters to restrict the spatial distribution of a particular phenomenon, is a methodology that may help to enhance the resolution of Census data and therefore to give a more realistic representation of the population distribution. Therefore, this work aims to map and to compare the population distribution based on a traditional approach (population per administrative terrain units) and based on dasymetric cartography (population by building). The study is developed in the Region North of Lisbon using 2011 population data and following three main steps: i) the landslide susceptibility assessment based on statistical models independently validated; ii) the evaluation of population distribution (absolute and density) for different administrative territorial units (Parishes and BGRI - the basic statistical unit in the Portuguese Census); and iii) the dasymetric population's cartography based on building areal weighting. Preliminary results show that in sparsely populated administrative units, population density differs more than two times depending on the application of the traditional approach or the dasymetric

  4. Multi-criteria decision analysis and environmental risk assessment for nanomaterials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Linkov, Igor; Satterstrom, F. Kyle; Steevens, Jeffery; Ferguson, Elizabeth; Pleus, Richard C.

    2007-01-01

    Nanotechnology is a broad and complex discipline that holds great promise for innovations that can benefit mankind. Yet, one must not overlook the wide array of factors involved in managing nanomaterial development, ranging from the technical specifications of the material to possible adverse effects in humans. Other opportunities to evaluate benefits and risks are inherent in environmental health and safety (EHS) issues related to nanotechnology. However, there is currently no structured approach for making justifiable and transparent decisions with explicit trade-offs between the many factors that need to be taken into account. While many possible decision-making approaches exist, we believe that multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a powerful and scientifically sound decision analytical framework for nanomaterial risk assessment and management. This paper combines state-of-the-art research in MCDA methods applicable to nanotechnology with a hypothetical case study for nanomaterial management. The example shows how MCDA application can balance societal benefits against unintended side effects and risks, and how it can also bring together multiple lines of evidence to estimate the likely toxicity and risk of nanomaterials given limited information on physical and chemical properties. The essential contribution of MCDA is to link this performance information with decision criteria and weightings elicited from scientists and managers, allowing visualization and quantification of the trade-offs involved in the decision-making process

  5. Multi-criteria decision analysis and environmental risk assessment for nanomaterials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linkov, Igor; Satterstrom, F. Kyle; Steevens, Jeffery; Ferguson, Elizabeth; Pleus, Richard C.

    2007-08-01

    Nanotechnology is a broad and complex discipline that holds great promise for innovations that can benefit mankind. Yet, one must not overlook the wide array of factors involved in managing nanomaterial development, ranging from the technical specifications of the material to possible adverse effects in humans. Other opportunities to evaluate benefits and risks are inherent in environmental health and safety (EHS) issues related to nanotechnology. However, there is currently no structured approach for making justifiable and transparent decisions with explicit trade-offs between the many factors that need to be taken into account. While many possible decision-making approaches exist, we believe that multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a powerful and scientifically sound decision analytical framework for nanomaterial risk assessment and management. This paper combines state-of-the-art research in MCDA methods applicable to nanotechnology with a hypothetical case study for nanomaterial management. The example shows how MCDA application can balance societal benefits against unintended side effects and risks, and how it can also bring together multiple lines of evidence to estimate the likely toxicity and risk of nanomaterials given limited information on physical and chemical properties. The essential contribution of MCDA is to link this performance information with decision criteria and weightings elicited from scientists and managers, allowing visualization and quantification of the trade-offs involved in the decision-making process.

  6. Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment of Health and Safety Approach JSA (Job Safety Analysis) in Plantation Company

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sugarindra, Muchamad; Ragil Suryoputro, Muhammad; Tiya Novitasari, Adi

    2017-06-01

    Plantation company needed to identify hazard and perform risk assessment as an Identification of Hazard and Risk Assessment Crime and Safety which was approached by using JSA (Job Safety Analysis). The identification was aimed to identify the potential hazards that might be the risk of workplace accidents so that preventive action could be taken to minimize the accidents. The data was collected by direct observation to the workers concerned and the results were recorded on a Job Safety Analysis form. The data were as forklift operator, macerator worker, worker’s creeper, shredder worker, workers’ workshop, mechanical line worker, trolley cleaning workers and workers’ crepe decline. The result showed that shredder worker value was 30 and had the working level with extreme risk with the risk value range was above 20. So to minimize the accidents could provide Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) which were appropriate, information about health and safety, the company should have watched the activities of workers, and rewards for the workers who obey the rules that applied in the plantation.

  7. Companies Credit Risk Assessment Methods for Investment Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dovilė Peškauskaitė

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available As the banks have tightened lending requirements, companies look for alternative sources of external funding. One of such is bonds issue. Unfortunately, corporate bonds issue as a source of funding is rare in Lithuania. This occurs because companies face with a lack of information, investors fear to take on credit risk. Credit risk is defined as a borrower’s failure to meet its obligation. Investors, in order to avoid credit risk, have to assess the state of the companies. The goal of the article is to determine the most informative methods of credit risk assessment. The article summarizes corporate lending sources, analyzes corporate default causes and credit risk assessment methods. The study based on the SWOT analysis shows that investors before making an investment decision should evaluate both the business risk,using qualitative method CAMPARI, and the financial risk, using financial ratio analysis.

  8. Hepatitis Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... please visit this page: About CDC.gov . Hepatitis Risk Assessment Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Viral Hepatitis. Are you at risk? Take this 5 minute Hepatitis Risk Assessment developed ...

  9. HANFORD SAFETY ANALYSIS and RISK ASSESSMENT HANDBOOK (SARAH)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    EVANS, C.B.

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of the Hanford Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) is to support the development of safety basis documentation for Hazard Category 2 and 3 (HC-2 and 3) U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear facilities to meet the requirements of 10 CFR 830, ''Nuclear Safety Management''. Subpart B, ''Safety Basis Requirements.'' Consistent with DOE-STD-3009-94, Change Notice 2, ''Preparation Guide for U.S. Department of Energy Nonreactor Nuclear Facility Documented Safety Analyses'' (STD-3009), and DOE-STD-3011-2002, ''Guidance for Preparation of Basis for Interim Operation (BIO) Documents'' (STD-3011), the Hanford SARAH describes methodology for performing a safety analysis leading to development of a Documented Safety Analysis (DSA) and derivation of Technical Safety Requirements (TSR), and provides the information necessary to ensure a consistently rigorous approach that meets DOE expectations. The DSA and TSR documents, together with the DOE-issued Safety Evaluation Report (SER), are the basic components of facility safety basis documentation. For HC-2 or 3 nuclear facilities in long-term surveillance and maintenance (S and M), for decommissioning activities, where source term has been eliminated to the point that only low-level, residual fixed contamination is present, or for environmental remediation activities outside of a facility structure, DOE-STD-1120-98, ''Integration of Environment, Safety, and Health into Facility Disposition Activities'' (STD-1120), may serve as the basis for the DSA. HC-2 and 3 environmental remediation sites also are subject to the hazard analysis methodologies of this standard

  10. The significance of OLGA and OLGIM staging systems in the risk assessment of gastric cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yue, Hu; Shan, Liu; Bin, Lv

    2018-02-19

    Despite extensive research on the criteria for the assessment of gastric cancer risk using the Operative Link on Gastritis Assessment (OLGA) and Operative Link on Gastritis/Intestinal-Metaplasia Assessment (OLGIM) systems, no comprehensive overview or systematic summary on their use is currently available. To perform a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the efficacy of the OLGA and OLGIM staging systems in evaluating gastric cancer risk. We searched various databases, including PubMed, EMBASE, Medline, and Cochrane's library, for articles published before March 2017 on the association between OLGA/OLGIM stages and risk of gastric cancer. Statistical analysis was performed using RevMan 5.30 and Stata 14.0, with the odds ratio, risk ratio, and 95% confidence interval as the effect measures. A meta-analysis of six case-control studies and two cohort studies, comprising 2700 subjects, was performed. The meta-analysis of prospective case-control studies demonstrated a significant association between the OLGA/OLGIM stages III/IV and gastric cancer. The Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS) score reflected heterogeneity in the case-control studies on OLGA. Subgroup analysis of high-quality (NOS score ≥ 5) studies showed an association between OLGA stage III/IV and increased risk of gastric cancer; the association was also high in the remaining study with low NOS score. The association between higher stages of gastritis defined by OLGA and risk of gastric cancer was significant. This correlation implies that close and frequent monitoring of such high-risk patients is necessary to facilitate timely diagnosis of gastric cancer.

  11. APPLICATION OF LASER SCANNING SURVEYING TO ROCK SLOPES RISK ASSESSMENT ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Corsetti

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The methods for understanding rock instability mechanisms and for evaluating potential destructive scenarios are of great importance in risk assessment analysis dedicated to the establishment of appropriate prevention and mitigation actions. When the portion of the unstable rock mass is very large, effective actions to counteract the risks are complex and expensive. In these conditions, an optimal risk management cannot ignore procedures able to faster and accurately acquire i geometrical data for modeling the geometry of the rock walls and implementing reliable forecasting models and ii monitoring data able to describe the magnitude and the direction of deformation processes. These data contributes to the prediction of the behavior of a landslide if the measurements are acquired frequently and reliable numerical models can be implemented. Innovative geomatic techniques, based on GPS, Terrestrial Laser Scanning Surveying (TLS, automated total station and satellite and ground SAR Interferometry, have been recently applied to define the geometry and monitoring the displacements of unstable slopes. Among these, TLS is mainly adopted to generate detailed 3D models useful to reconstruct rock wall geometry by contributing to the estimation of geo-mechanical parameters, that is orientation, persistence and apparent spacing of rock discontinuities. Two examples of applications of TLS technique to the analysis of a large front in a quarry and of a rock shoulder of a dam are presented.

  12. Seismic risk assessment of a BWR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wells, J.E.; Bernreuter, D.L.; Chen, J.C.; Lappa, D.A.; Chuang, T.Y.; Murray, R.C.; Johnson, J.J.

    1987-01-01

    The simplified seismic risk methodology developed in the USNRC Seismic Safety Margins Research Program (SSMRP) was demonstrated by its application to the Zion nuclear power plant (PWR). The simplified seismic risk methodology was developed to reduce the costs associated with a seismic risk analysis while providing adequate results. A detailed model of Zion, including systems analysis models (initiating events, event trees, and fault trees), SSI and structure models, and piping models, was developed and used in assessing the seismic risk of the Zion nuclear power plant (FSAR). The simplified seismic risk methodology was applied to the LaSalle County Station nuclear power plant, a BWR; to further demonstrate its applicability, and if possible, to provide a basis for comparing the seismic risk from PWRs and BWRs. (orig./HP)

  13. Integration of human reliability analysis into the probabilistic risk assessment process: phase 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bell, B.J.; Vickroy, S.C.

    1985-01-01

    The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and Pacific Northwest Laboratory initiated a research program in 1984 to develop a testable set of analytical procedures for integrating human reliability analysis (HRA) into the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) process to more adequately assess the overall impact of human performance on risk. In this three phase program, stand-alone HRA/PRA analytic procedures will be developed and field evaluated to provide improved methods, techniques, and models for applying quantitative and qualitative human error data which systematically integrate HRA principles, techniques, and analyses throughout the entire PRA process. Phase 1 of the program involved analysis of state-of-the-art PRAs to define the structures and processes currently in use in the industry. Phase 2 research will involve developing a new or revised PRA methodology which will enable more efficient regulation of the industry using quantitative or qualitative results of the PRA. Finally, Phase 3 will be to field test those procedures to assure that the results generated by the new methodologies will be usable and acceptable to the NRC. This paper briefly describes the first phase of the program and outlines the second

  14. Assessment, Planning, and Execution Considerations for Conjunction Risk Assessment and Mitigation Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frigm, Ryan C.; Levi, Joshua A.; Mantziaras, Dimitrios C.

    2010-01-01

    An operational Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) concept is the real-time process of assessing risk posed by close approaches and reacting to those risks if necessary. The most effective way to completely mitigate conjunction risk is to perform an avoidance maneuver. The NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has implemented a routine CARA process since 2005. Over this period, considerable experience has been gained and many lessons have been learned. This paper identifies and presents these experiences as general concepts in the description of the Conjunction Assessment, Flight Dynamics, and Flight Operations methodologies and processes. These general concepts will be tied together and will be exemplified through a case study of an actual high risk conjunction event for the Aura mission.

  15. Cancer Risk Assessment of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons in the Soils and Sediments of India: A Meta-Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarafdar, Abhrajyoti; Sinha, Alok

    2017-10-01

    A carcinogenic risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in soils and sediments was conducted using the probabilistic approach from a national perspective. Published monitoring data of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons present in soils and sediments at different study points across India were collected and converted to their corresponding BaP equivalent concentrations. These BaP equivalent concentrations were used to evaluate comprehensive cancer risk for two different age groups. Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analysis were applied to quantify uncertainties of risk estimation. The analysis denotes 90% cancer risk value of 1.770E-5 for children and 3.156E-5 for adults at heavily polluted site soils. Overall carcinogenic risks of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in soils of India were mostly in acceptance limits. However, the food ingestion exposure route for sediments leads them to a highly risked zone. The 90% risk values from sediments are 7.863E-05 for children and 3.999E-04 for adults. Sensitivity analysis reveals exposure duration and relative skin adherence factor for soil as the most influential parameter of the assessment, followed by BaP equivalent concentration of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. For sediments, biota to sediment accumulation factor of fish in terms of BaP is most sensitive on the total outcome, followed by BaP equivalent and exposure duration. Individual exposure route analysis showed dermal contact for soils and food ingestion for sediments as the main exposure pathway. Some specific locations such as surrounding areas of Bhavnagar, Raniganj, Sunderban, Raipur, and Delhi demand potential strategies of carcinogenic risk management and reduction. The current study is probably the first attempt to provide information on the carcinogenic risk of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in soil and sediments across India.

  16. Cancer Risk Assessment of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons in the Soils and Sediments of India: A Meta-Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarafdar, Abhrajyoti; Sinha, Alok

    2017-10-01

    A carcinogenic risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in soils and sediments was conducted using the probabilistic approach from a national perspective. Published monitoring data of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons present in soils and sediments at different study points across India were collected and converted to their corresponding BaP equivalent concentrations. These BaP equivalent concentrations were used to evaluate comprehensive cancer risk for two different age groups. Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analysis were applied to quantify uncertainties of risk estimation. The analysis denotes 90% cancer risk value of 1.770E-5 for children and 3.156E-5 for adults at heavily polluted site soils. Overall carcinogenic risks of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in soils of India were mostly in acceptance limits. However, the food ingestion exposure route for sediments leads them to a highly risked zone. The 90% risk values from sediments are 7.863E-05 for children and 3.999E-04 for adults. Sensitivity analysis reveals exposure duration and relative skin adherence factor for soil as the most influential parameter of the assessment, followed by BaP equivalent concentration of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. For sediments, biota to sediment accumulation factor of fish in terms of BaP is most sensitive on the total outcome, followed by BaP equivalent and exposure duration. Individual exposure route analysis showed dermal contact for soils and food ingestion for sediments as the main exposure pathway. Some specific locations such as surrounding areas of Bhavnagar, Raniganj, Sunderban, Raipur, and Delhi demand potential strategies of carcinogenic risk management and reduction. The current study is probably the first attempt to provide information on the carcinogenic risk of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in soil and sediments across India.

  17. Family history assessment for colorectal cancer (CRC) risk analysis - comparison of diagram- and questionnaire-based web interfaces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schultz, Michael; Seo, Steven Bohwan; Holt, Alec; Regenbrecht, Holger

    2015-11-18

    Colorectal cancer (CRC) has a high incidence, especially in New Zealand. The reasons for this are unknown. While most cancers develop sporadically, a positive family history, determined by the number and age at diagnosis of affected first and second degree relatives with CRC is one of the major factors, which may increase an individual's lifetime risk. Before a patient can be enrolled in a surveillance program a detailed assessment and documentation of the family history is important but time consuming and often inaccurate. The documentation is usually paper-based. Our aim was therefore to develop and validate the usability and efficacy of a web-based family history assessment tool for CRC suitable for the general population. The tool was also to calculate the risk and make a recommendation for surveillance. Two versions of an electronic assessment tool, diagram-based and questionnaire-based, were developed with the risk analysis and recommendations for surveillance based on the New Zealand Guidelines Group recommendations. Accuracy of our tool was tested prior to the study by comparing risk calculations based on family history by experienced gastroenterologists with the electronic assessment. The general public, visiting a local science fair were asked to use and comment on the usability of the two interfaces. Ninety people assessed and commented on the two interfaces. Both interfaces were effective in assessing the risk to develop CRC through their familial history for CRC. However, the questionnaire-based interface performed with significantly better satisfaction (p = 0.001) than the diagram-based interface. There was no difference in efficacy though. We conclude that a web-based questionnaire tool can assist in the accurate documentation and analysis of the family history relevant to determine the individual risk of CRC based on local guidelines. The calculator is now implemented and assessable through the web-page of a local charity for colorectal cancer

  18. Risk assessment handbook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farmer, F.G.; Jones, J.L.; Hunt, R.N.; Roush, M.L.; Wierman, T.E.

    1990-09-01

    The Probabilistic Risk Assessment Unit at EG ampersand G Idaho has developed this handbook to provide guidance to a facility manager exploring the potential benefit to be gained by performance of a risk assessment properly scoped to meet local needs. This document is designed to help the manager control the resources expended commensurate with the risks being managed and to assure that the products can be used programmatically to support future needs in order to derive maximum beneflt from the resources expended. We present a logical and functional mapping scheme between several discrete phases of project definition to ensure that a potential customer, working with an analyst, is able to define the areas of interest and that appropriate methods are employed in the analysis. In addition the handbook is written to provide a high-level perspective for the analyst. Previously, the needed information was either scattered or existed only in the minds of experienced analysts. By compiling this information and exploring the breadth of knowledge which exists within the members of the PRA Unit, the functional relationships between the customers' needs and the product have been established

  19. Analysis of dysphagia risk using the modified dysphagia risk assessment for the community-dwelling elderly.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byeon, Haewon

    2016-09-01

    [Purpose] The elderly are susceptible to dysphagia, and complications can be minimized if high-risk groups are screened in early stages and properly rehabilitated. This study provides basic material for the early detection and prevention of dysphagia by investigating the risks of dysphagia and related factors in community-dwelling elders. [Subjects and Methods] Participants included 325 community-dwelling elderly people aged 65 or older. The modified dysphagia risk assessment for the community-dwelling elderly was used to assess dysphagia risk. [Results] Approximately 52.6% (n=171) of participants belonged to the high-risk group for dysphagia. After adjusting for confounding variables, people aged 75+, who used dentures, and who needed partial help in daily living had a significantly higher risk of dysphagia. [Conclusion] It is necessary to develop guidelines for dysphagia for early detection and rehabilitation.

  20. Probabilistic risk assessment of earthquakes at the Rocky Flats Plant and subsequent upgrade to reduce risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Day, S.A.

    1989-01-01

    An analysis to determine the risk associated with earthquakes at the Rocky Flats Plant was performed. Seismic analyses and structural evaluations were used to postulate building and equipment damage and radiological releases to the environment from various magnitudes of earthquakes. Dispersion modeling and dose assessment to the public were then calculated. The frequency of occurrence of various magnitudes of earthquakes were determined from the Department of Energy natural Phenomena Hazards Modeling Project. Risk to the public was probabilistically assessed for each magnitude of earthquake and for overall seismic risk. Based on the results of this Probabilistic Risk Assessment and a cost/benefit analysis, seismic upgrades are being implemented for several plutonium-handling facilities for the purpose of risk reduction

  1. Subjective risk assessment for planning conservation projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Game, Edward T; Fitzsimons, James A; Lipsett-Moore, Geoff; McDonald-Madden, Eve

    2013-01-01

    Conservation projects occur under many types of uncertainty. Where this uncertainty can affect achievement of a project’s objectives, there is risk. Understanding risks to project success should influence a range of strategic and tactical decisions in conservation, and yet, formal risk assessment rarely features in the guidance or practice of conservation planning. We describe how subjective risk analysis tools can be framed to facilitate the rapid identification and assessment of risks to conservation projects, and how this information should influence conservation planning. Our approach is illustrated with an assessment of risks to conservation success as part of a conservation plan for the work of The Nature Conservancy in northern Australia. Risks can be both internal and external to a project, and occur across environmental, social, economic and political systems. Based on the relative importance of a risk and the level of certainty in its assessment we propose a series of appropriate, project level responses including research, monitoring, and active amelioration. Explicit identification, prioritization, and where possible, management of risks are important elements of using conservation resources in an informed and accountable manner. (letter)

  2. GM Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparrow, Penny A. C.

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

  3. Revised Human Health Risk Assessment on Chlorpyrifos

    Science.gov (United States)

    We have revised our human health risk assessment and drinking water exposure assessment for chlorpyrifos that supported our October 2015 proposal to revoke all food residue tolerances for chlorpyrifos. Learn about the revised analysis.

  4. Risk assessment for civil engineering facilities: critical overview and discussion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Faber, M.H.; Stewart, M.G.

    2003-01-01

    The present paper should be seen as a basis for discussion of important aspects of risk analysis and assessment, as well as attempting to describe risk assessment in accordance with the present state of the art. Risk assessment is thus presented in an overview form from the viewpoint of being a means for decision-making and thus within the formal framework of decision theory. First the motivation for risk analysis is given and the theoretical basis together with the practical aspects, methodologies and techniques for the implementation of risk assessment in civil engineering applications are explained and discussed. The paper furthermore addresses the problems associated with risk acceptance criteria, risk aversion and value of human life and attempts to provide suggestions for the rational treatment of these aspects. Finally a number of problem areas are highlighted and the needs for further education, research and dissemination are stressed

  5. Risk-assessment methodology for fast breeder reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ott, K.O.

    1976-04-01

    The methods applied or proposed for risk assessment of nuclear reactors are reviewed, particularly with respect to their applicability for risk assessment of future commercial fast breeder reactors. All methods are based on the calculation of accident consequences for relatively few accident scenarios. The role and general impact of uncertainties in fast-reactor accident analysis are discussed. The discussion shows the need for improvement of the methodology. A generalized and improved risk-assessment methodology is outlined and proposed (accident-spectra-progression approach). The generalization consists primarily of an explicit treatment of uncertainties throughout the accident progression. The results of this method are obtained in form of consequence distributions. The width and shape of the distributions depend in part on the superposition of the uncertainties. The first moment of the consequence distribution gives an improved prediction of the ''average'' consequence. The higher-consequence moments can be used for consideration of risk aversion. The assessment of the risk of one or a certain number of nuclear reactors can only provide an ''isolated'' risk assessment. The general problem of safety risk assessment and its relation to public acceptance of certain modes of power production is a much broader problem area, which is also discussed

  6. Morphometric Analysis to Prioritize Sub-Watershed for Flood Risk Assessment in Central Karakoram National Park Using Gis/rs Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Syed, N. H.; Rehman, A. A.; Hussain, D.; Ishaq, S.; Khan, A. A.

    2017-11-01

    Morphometric analysis is vital for any watershed investigation and it is inevitable for flood risk assessment in sub-watershed basins. Present study undertaken to carry out critical evaluation and assessment of sub watershed morphological parameters for flood risk assessment of Central Karakorum National Park (CKNP), where Geographical information system and remote sensing (GIS & RS) approach used for quantifying the parameter and mapping of sub watershed units. ASTER DEM used as a geo-spatial data for watershed delineation and stream network. Morphometric analysis carried out using spatial analyst tool of ArcGIS 10.2. The parameters included were bifurcation ratio (Rb), Drainage Texture (Rt), Circulatory ratio (Rc), Elongated ratio (Re), Drainage density (Dd), Stream Length (Lu), Stream order (Su), Slope and Basin length (Lb) have calculated separately. The analysis revealed that the stream order varies from order 1 to 6 and the total numbers of stream segments of all orders were 52. Multi criteria analysis process used to calculate the risk factor. As an accomplished result, map of sub watershed prioritization developed using weighted standardized risk factor. These results helped to understand sensitivity of flush floods in different sub watersheds of the study area and leaded to better management of the mountainous regions in prospect of flush floods.

  7. WE-B-BRC-00: Concepts in Risk-Based Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2016-06-15

    Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. We therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation oncology

  8. WE-B-BRC-01: Current Methodologies in Risk Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rath, F. [University of Wisconsin Madison (United States)

    2016-06-15

    Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. We therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation oncology

  9. WE-B-BRC-01: Current Methodologies in Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rath, F.

    2016-01-01

    Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. We therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation oncology

  10. WE-B-BRC-00: Concepts in Risk-Based Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2016-01-01

    Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. We therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation oncology

  11. Ethical aspects of the assessment of technical risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birnbacher, D.

    1991-01-01

    When technology assessment goes over into technology politics, then questions arise which can only be answered in an ethical way. Questions like, which risk strategy has to be the basis for decision-making, and is a decision for or against the development, introduction or maintenance of a certain technology to be based at all on risk assessments? The author considers pure consequentialistic ethics the most plausible option, and does not see a basic difference in a risk-benefit analysis and ethical technology assessment. (DG) [de

  12. An Application of the Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM) to Risk Assessment of Organisational Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hollnagel, Erik [MINES ParisTech Crisis and Risk Research Centre (CRC), Sophia Antipolis Cedex (France)

    2012-11-15

    The objective of this study was to demonstrate an alternative approach to risk assessment of organisational changes, based on the principles of resilience engineering. The approach in question was the Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM). Whereas established approaches focus on risks coming from failure or malfunctioning of components, alone or in combination, resilience engineering focuses on the common functions and processes that provide the basis for both successes and failures. Resilience engineering more precisely proposes that failures represent the flip side of the adaptations necessary to cope with the real world complexity rather than a failure of normal system functions and that a safety assessment therefore should focus on how functions are carried out rather than on how they may fail. The objective of this study was not to evaluate the current approach to risk assessment used by the organisation in question. The current approach has nevertheless been used as a frame of reference, but in a non-evaluative manner. The author has demonstrated through the selected case that FRAM can be used as an alternative approach to organizational changes. The report provides the reader with details to consider when making a decision on what analysis approach to use. The choice of which approach to use must reflect priorities and concerns of the organisation and the author makes no statement about which approach is better. It is clear that the choice of an analysis approach is not so simple to make and there are many things to take into account such as the larger working environment, organisational culture, regulatory requirements, etc.

  13. An Application of the Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM) to Risk Assessment of Organisational Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hollnagel, Erik

    2012-11-01

    The objective of this study was to demonstrate an alternative approach to risk assessment of organisational changes, based on the principles of resilience engineering. The approach in question was the Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM). Whereas established approaches focus on risks coming from failure or malfunctioning of components, alone or in combination, resilience engineering focuses on the common functions and processes that provide the basis for both successes and failures. Resilience engineering more precisely proposes that failures represent the flip side of the adaptations necessary to cope with the real world complexity rather than a failure of normal system functions and that a safety assessment therefore should focus on how functions are carried out rather than on how they may fail. The objective of this study was not to evaluate the current approach to risk assessment used by the organisation in question. The current approach has nevertheless been used as a frame of reference, but in a non-evaluative manner. The author has demonstrated through the selected case that FRAM can be used as an alternative approach to organizational changes. The report provides the reader with details to consider when making a decision on what analysis approach to use. The choice of which approach to use must reflect priorities and concerns of the organisation and the author makes no statement about which approach is better. It is clear that the choice of an analysis approach is not so simple to make and there are many things to take into account such as the larger working environment, organisational culture, regulatory requirements, etc

  14. Assessing risk from intelligent attacks: A perspective on approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guikema, Seth D.; Aven, Terje

    2010-01-01

    Assessing the uncertainties in and severity of the consequences of intelligent attacks are fundamentally different from risk assessment for accidental events and other phenomena with inherently random failures. Intelligent attacks against a system involve adaptation on the part of the adversary. The probabilities of the initiating events depend on the risk management actions taken, and they may be more difficult to assess due to high degrees of epistemic uncertainty about the motivations and future actions of adversaries. Several fundamentally different frameworks have been proposed for assessing risk from intelligent attacks. These include basing risk assessment and management on game theoretic modelling of attacker actions, using a probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) approach based on eliciting probabilities of different initiating events from appropriate experts, assessing uncertainties beyond probabilities and expected values, and ignoring the probabilities of the attacks and choosing to protect highest valued targets. In this paper we discuss and compare the fundamental assumptions that underlie each of these approaches. We then suggest a new framework that makes the fundamental assumptions underlying the approaches clear to decision makers and presents them with a suite of results from conditional risk analysis methods. Each of the conditional methods presents the risk from a specified set of fundamental assumptions, allowing the decision maker to see the impacts of these assumptions on the risk management strategies considered and to weight the different conditional results with their assessments of the relative likelihood of the different sets of assumptions.

  15. An approach to grouping species for ecological risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hampton, N.L.; VanHorn, R.L.; Morris, R.; Brewer, R.

    1994-01-01

    The ecological risk assessment (ERA) paradigm acknowledges all levels of ecological organization as having potential for defining assessment and measurement endpoints. However, assessment goals and endpoints are generally concentrated at individual species and population levels. As part of a sitewide, screening-level ERA process at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL), a ''functional group'' approach was developed to incorporate assessment at a higher level of ecological organization into the risk analysis process. Functional groups demonstrating biological similarity and similar potential for contaminant exposure were developed using taxonomic, trophic and habitat parameters. As defined, all species are potential surrogates for the other members of the same functional group. Measurement endpoint data for several species may be integrated to address the risk to the group as a whole. The functional group concept was applied throughout the problem formulation, analysis, and risk characterization phases of the assessment process. This approach allows the ERA to be focused on risk to the integrity of individual functional groups, which can subsequently be related to guild and community integrity

  16. Statistical problems in the assessment of nuclear risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Easterling, R.G.

    1980-01-01

    Information on nuclear power plant risk assessment is presented concerning attitudinal problems; and methodological problems involving expert opinions, human error probabilities, nonindependent events, uncertainty analysis, and acceptable risk criteria

  17. Component fragility analysis methodology for seismic risk assessment projects. Proven PSA safety document processing and assessment procedures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kolar, Ladislav

    2013-03-01

    The seismic risk task assessment task should be structured as follows: (i) Define all reactor unit building structures, components and equipment involved in the creation of an initiating event (IE) induced by an seismic event or contributing to the reliability of reactor unit response to an IE; (ii) construct and estimate of the fragility curves for the building and component groups sub (i); (iii) determine the HCLPF for each group of buildings, components or equipment; (iv) determine the nuclear source's seismic resistance (SME) as the minimum HCLPF from the group of equipment in the risk-dominant scenarios; (v) define the risk-limiting group of components, equipment and building structures to the SME value; (vi) based on the fragility levels, identify component groups for which a more detailed fragility analysis is needed; and (vii) recommend groups of equipment or building structures that should be taken into account with respect to the seismic risk, i.e. such groups of equipment or building structures as exhibit a low seismic resistance (HCLPF) and, at the same time, are involved to a significant extent in the reactor unit's seismic risk (are present in the dominant risk scenarios). (P.A.)

  18. Comparative analysis of assessment methods for operational and anesthetic risks in ulcerative gastroduodenal bleeding

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Potakhin S.N.

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Aim of the investigation: to conduct a comparative analysis of methods of evaluation of surgical and anesthetic risks in ulcerative gastroduodenal bleeding. Materials and methods. A retrospective analysis ofthe extent of the surgical and anesthetic risks and results of treatment of 71 patients with peptic ulcer bleeding has been conducted in the study. To evaluate the surgical and anesthetic risks classification trees are used, scale ТА. Rockall and prognosis System of rebleeding (SPRK, proposed by N. V. Lebedev et al. in 2009, enabling to evaluate the probability of a fatal outcome. To compare the efficacy ofthe methods the following indicators are used: sensitivity, specificity and prediction of positive result. Results. The study compared the results ofthe risk assessment emergency operation by using these methods with the outcome ofthe operation. The comparison ofthe prognosis results in sensitivity leads to the conclusion that the scales ТА. Rockall and SPRK are worse than the developed method of classification trees in recognizing patients with poor outcome of surgery. Conclusion. The method of classification trees can be considered as the most accurate method of evaluation of surgical and anesthetic risks in ulcerative gastroduodenal bleeding.

  19. RAMS (Risk Analysis - Modular System) methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stenner, R.D.; Strenge, D.L.; Buck, J.W. [and others

    1996-10-01

    The Risk Analysis - Modular System (RAMS) was developed to serve as a broad scope risk analysis tool for the Risk Assessment of the Hanford Mission (RAHM) studies. The RAHM element provides risk analysis support for Hanford Strategic Analysis and Mission Planning activities. The RAHM also provides risk analysis support for the Hanford 10-Year Plan development activities. The RAMS tool draws from a collection of specifically designed databases and modular risk analysis methodologies and models. RAMS is a flexible modular system that can be focused on targeted risk analysis needs. It is specifically designed to address risks associated with overall strategy, technical alternative, and `what if` questions regarding the Hanford cleanup mission. RAMS is set up to address both near-term and long-term risk issues. Consistency is very important for any comparative risk analysis, and RAMS is designed to efficiently and consistently compare risks and produce risk reduction estimates. There is a wide range of output information that can be generated by RAMS. These outputs can be detailed by individual contaminants, waste forms, transport pathways, exposure scenarios, individuals, populations, etc. However, they can also be in rolled-up form to support high-level strategy decisions.

  20. Dynamical systems probabilistic risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Denman, Matthew R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Ames, Arlo Leroy [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2014-03-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is the primary tool used to risk-inform nuclear power regulatory and licensing activities. Risk-informed regulations are intended to reduce inherent conservatism in regulatory metrics (e.g., allowable operating conditions and technical specifications) which are built into the regulatory framework by quantifying both the total risk profile as well as the change in the risk profile caused by an event or action (e.g., in-service inspection procedures or power uprates). Dynamical Systems (DS) analysis has been used to understand unintended time-dependent feedbacks in both industrial and organizational settings. In dynamical systems analysis, feedback loops can be characterized and studied as a function of time to describe the changes to the reliability of plant Structures, Systems and Components (SSCs). While DS has been used in many subject areas, some even within the PRA community, it has not been applied toward creating long-time horizon, dynamic PRAs (with time scales ranging between days and decades depending upon the analysis). Understanding slowly developing dynamic effects, such as wear-out, on SSC reliabilities may be instrumental in ensuring a safely and reliably operating nuclear fleet. Improving the estimation of a plant's continuously changing risk profile will allow for more meaningful risk insights, greater stakeholder confidence in risk insights, and increased operational flexibility.

  1. Incorporating assumption deviation risk in quantitative risk assessments: A semi-quantitative approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khorsandi, Jahon; Aven, Terje

    2017-01-01

    Quantitative risk assessments (QRAs) of complex engineering systems are based on numerous assumptions and expert judgments, as there is limited information available for supporting the analysis. In addition to sensitivity analyses, the concept of assumption deviation risk has been suggested as a means for explicitly considering the risk related to inaccuracies and deviations in the assumptions, which can significantly impact the results of the QRAs. However, challenges remain for its practical implementation, considering the number of assumptions and magnitude of deviations to be considered. This paper presents an approach for integrating an assumption deviation risk analysis as part of QRAs. The approach begins with identifying the safety objectives for which the QRA aims to support, and then identifies critical assumptions with respect to ensuring the objectives are met. Key issues addressed include the deviations required to violate the safety objectives, the uncertainties related to the occurrence of such events, and the strength of knowledge supporting the assessments. Three levels of assumptions are considered, which include assumptions related to the system's structural and operational characteristics, the effectiveness of the established barriers, as well as the consequence analysis process. The approach is illustrated for the case of an offshore installation. - Highlights: • An approach for assessing the risk of deviations in QRA assumptions is presented. • Critical deviations and uncertainties related to their occurrence are addressed. • The analysis promotes critical thinking about the foundation and results of QRAs. • The approach is illustrated for the case of an offshore installation.

  2. Generalized indices for radiation risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bykov, A.A.; Demin, V.F.

    1989-01-01

    A new approach to ensuring nuclear safety has begun forming since the early eighties. The approach based on the probabilistic safety analysis, the principles of acceptable risk, the optimization of safety measures, etc. has forced a complex of adequate quantitative methods of assessment, safety analysis and risk management to be developed. The method of radiation risk assessment and analysis hold a prominent place in the complex. National and international research and regulatory organizations ICRP, IAEA, WHO, UNSCEAR, OECD/NEA have given much attention to the development of the conceptual and methodological basis of those methods. Some resolutions of the National Commission of Radiological Protection (NCRP) and the Problem Commission on Radiation Hygiene of the USSR Ministry of Health should be also noted. Both CBA (cost benefit analysis) and other methods of radiation risk analysis and safety management use a system of natural and socio-economic indices characterizing the radiation risk or damage. There exist a number of problems associated with the introduction, justification and use of these indices. For example, the price, a, of radiation damage, or collective dose unit, is a noteworthy index. The difficulties in its qualitative and quantitative determination are still an obstacle for a wide application of CBA to the radiation risk analysis and management. During recent 10-15 years these problems have been a subject of consideration for many authors. The present paper also considers the issues of the qualitative and quantitative justification of the indices of radiation risk analysis

  3. Development of Improved Caprock Integrity and Risk Assessment Techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bruno, Michael [Geomechanics Technologies, Incorporated, Monrovia, CA (United States)

    2014-09-30

    GeoMechanics Technologies has completed a geomechanical caprock integrity analysis and risk assessment study funded through the US Department of Energy. The project included: a detailed review of historical caprock integrity problems experienced in the natural gas storage industry; a theoretical description and documentation of caprock integrity issues; advanced coupled transport flow modelling and geomechanical simulation of three large-scale potential geologic sequestration sites to estimate geomechanical effects from CO₂ injection; development of a quantitative risk and decision analysis tool to assess caprock integrity risks; and, ultimately the development of recommendations and guidelines for caprock characterization and CO₂ injection operating practices. Historical data from gas storage operations and CO₂ sequestration projects suggest that leakage and containment incident risks are on the order of 10-1 to 10-2, which is higher risk than some previous studies have suggested for CO₂. Geomechanical analysis, as described herein, can be applied to quantify risks and to provide operating guidelines to reduce risks. The risk assessment tool developed for this project has been applied to five areas: The Wilmington Graben offshore Southern California, Kevin Dome in Montana, the Louden Field in Illinois, the Sleipner CO₂ sequestration operation in the North Sea, and the In Salah CO₂ sequestration operation in North Africa. Of these five, the Wilmington Graben area represents the highest relative risk while the Kevin Dome area represents the lowest relative risk.

  4. Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adger, W. Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

    2018-01-01

    Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy’. PMID:29712800

  5. Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adger, W Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

    2018-06-13

    Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Author(s).

  6. Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adger, W. Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

    2018-06-01

    Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

  7. Multi-attribute risk assessment for risk ranking of natural gas pipelines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brito, A.J.; Almeida, A.T. de

    2009-01-01

    The paper presents a decision model for risk assessment and for risk ranking of sections of natural gas pipelines based on multi-attribute utility theory. Pipeline hazard scenarios are surveyed and the reasons for a risk assessment model based on a multi-attribute approach are presented. Three dimensions of impact and the need to translate decision-makers' preferences into risk management decisions are highlighted. The model approaches these factors by using a multi-attribute utility function, in order to produce multi-dimensional risk measurements. By using decision analysis concepts, this model quantitatively incorporates the decision-maker's preferences and behavior regarding risk within clear and consistent risk measurements. In order to support the prioritizing of critical sections of pipeline in natural gas companies, this multi-attribute model also allows sections of pipeline to be ranked into a risk hierarchy. A numerical application based on a real case study was undertaken so that the effectiveness of the decision model could be verified

  8. Assessing the Credit Risk of Corporate Bonds Based on Factor Analysis and Logistic Regress Analysis Techniques: Evidence from New Energy Enterprises in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuanxin Liu

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, new energy sources have ushered in tremendous opportunities for development. The difficulties to finance new energy enterprises (NEEs can be estimated through issuing corporate bonds. However, there are few scientific and reasonable methods to assess the credit risk of NEE bonds, which is not conducive to the healthy development of NEEs. Based on this, this paper analyzes the advantages and risks of NEEs issuing bonds and the main factors affecting the credit risk of NEE bonds, constructs a hybrid model for assessing the credit risk of NEE bonds based on factor analysis and logistic regress analysis techniques, and verifies the applicability and effectiveness of the model employing relevant data from 46 Chinese NEEs. The results show that the main factors affecting the credit risk of NEE bonds are internal factors involving the company’s profitability, solvency, operational ability, growth potential, asset structure and viability, and external factors including macroeconomic environment and energy policy support. Based on the empirical results and the exact situation of China’s NEE bonds, this article finally puts forward several targeted recommendations.

  9. Research into specific risk assessment in project financing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivana Bestvina Bukvić

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available An assessment of investment justification in terms of risk enables the decision maker (investor to select, among available alternatives, the one with the most favourable correlation between the expected profit and assumed risk. At the micro level, the uncertainty of business success is extremely high in production activities, which is an additional incentive for taking a comprehensive approach to the issue of investment decision-making and the development of risk assessment techniques applicable in this particular segment of industry. Given the complexity of the manufacturing process, the length of the production cycle, market conditions, and entity-specific risks (which are difficult to measure, projects in manufacturing industry require a detailed and comprehensive assessment of specific risk factors and their cost-effectiveness. Ne - vertheless, since specific risks can be diversified, investment proposal assessments in practice usually do not cover their quantification and analysis. However, the majority of business entities do not have enough active projects in various industries to be able to fully diversify their business and thus minimize the level of specific risks. The impact of specific factors becomes one of the most important elements for business success. This paper analyses how far risk assessment methods regarding specific risks are used in practice. Furthermore, it analyses the significance of specific risks for total investment risk. This study gives new insi - ghts into the significance of specific risks to the overall investment assessment and the need for permanent development of traditionally used investment assessment models.

  10. Concept of risk: risk assessment and nuclear safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, P.B.

    1980-01-01

    The dissertation is a critical examination of risk assessment and its role in public policy. Nuclear power safety safety issues are selected as the primary source of illustrations and examples. The dissertation examines how risk assessment studies develop a concept of risk which becomes decisive for policy choices. Risk-assessment techniques are interpreted as instruments which secure an evaluation of risk which, in turn, figures prominently in technical reports on nuclear power. The philosophical critique is mounted on two levels. First, an epistemological critique surveys distinctions between the technical concept of risk and more familiar senses of risk. The critique shows that utilization of risk assessment re-structures the concept of risk. The technical concept is contrasted to the function of risk within a decision-maker's conceptual agenda and hierarchy of values. Second, an ethical critique exposes the value commitments of risk assessment recommendations. Although some of these values might be defended for policy decisions, the technical character of risk assessment obfuscates normative issues. Risk assessment is shown to be a form of factual enquiry which, nonetheless, represents a commitment to a specific selection of ethical and social values. Risk assessment should not be interpreted as a primary guide to decision unless the specific values incorporated into its concept of risk are stated explicitly and justified philosophically. Such a statement would allow value questions which have been sublimated by the factual tone of the analytic techniques to be debated on clear, social and ethical grounds

  11. External Threat Risk Assessment Algorithm (ExTRAA)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Powell, Troy C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-08-01

    Two risk assessment algorithms and philosophies have been augmented and combined to form a new algorit hm, the External Threat Risk Assessment Algorithm (ExTRAA), that allows for effective and statistically sound analysis of external threat sources in relation to individual attack methods . In addition to the attack method use probability and the attack method employment consequence, t he concept of defining threat sources is added to the risk assessment process. Sample data is tabulated and depicted in radar plots and bar graphs for algorithm demonstration purposes. The largest success of ExTRAA is its ability to visualize the kind of r isk posed in a given situation using the radar plot method.

  12. Risk Assessment for Mobile Systems Through a Multilayered Hierarchical Bayesian Network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Shancang; Tryfonas, Theo; Russell, Gordon; Andriotis, Panagiotis

    2016-08-01

    Mobile systems are facing a number of application vulnerabilities that can be combined together and utilized to penetrate systems with devastating impact. When assessing the overall security of a mobile system, it is important to assess the security risks posed by each mobile applications (apps), thus gaining a stronger understanding of any vulnerabilities present. This paper aims at developing a three-layer framework that assesses the potential risks which apps introduce within the Android mobile systems. A Bayesian risk graphical model is proposed to evaluate risk propagation in a layered risk architecture. By integrating static analysis, dynamic analysis, and behavior analysis in a hierarchical framework, the risks and their propagation through each layer are well modeled by the Bayesian risk graph, which can quantitatively analyze risks faced to both apps and mobile systems. The proposed hierarchical Bayesian risk graph model offers a novel way to investigate the security risks in mobile environment and enables users and administrators to evaluate the potential risks. This strategy allows to strengthen both app security as well as the security of the entire system.

  13. Dutch Risk Assessment tools

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Venema, A.

    2015-01-01

    The ‘Risico- Inventarisatie- en Evaluatie-instrumenten’ is the name for the Dutch risk assessment (RA) tools. A RA tool can be used to perform a risk assessment including an evaluation of the identified risks. These tools were among the first online risk assessment tools developed in Europe. The

  14. Advanced Test Reactor probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atkinson, S.A.; Eide, S.A.; Khericha, S.T.; Thatcher, T.A.

    1993-01-01

    This report discusses Level 1 probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) incorporating a full-scope external events analysis which has been completed for the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) located at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory

  15. Risk assessment practice within primary mental health care: A logics perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flintoff, Adam; Speed, Ewen; McPherson, Susan

    2018-04-01

    From the 1980s onwards, discourses of risk have continued to grow, almost in ubiquity. Ideas and practices of risk and risk aversion have extended to UK mental health care where services are expected to assess and manage risks, and high-quality clinical assessment has been revised to incorporate risk assessment. This article problematises practices of risk assessment in mental health provision, focussing on the base-rate problem. It presents an analysis of audio recordings of risk assessments completed within a primary care mental health service. The analysis is informed by a critical logics approach which, using ideas from discourse theory as well as Lacanian psychoanalysis, involves developing a set of logics to describe, analyse and explain social phenomena. We characterise the assessments as functioning according to social logics of well-oiled administration and preservation, whereby bureaucratic processes are prioritised, contingency ironed out or ignored, and a need to manage potential risks to the service are the dominant operational frames. These logics are considered in terms of their beatific and horrific fantasmatic dimensions, whereby risk assessment is enacted as infallible (beatific) until clients become threats (horrific), creating a range of potential false negatives, false positives and so forth. These processes function to obscure or background problems with risk assessment, by generating practices that favour and offer protection to assessors, at the expense of those being assessed, thus presenting a challenge to the stated aim of risk assessment practice.

  16. The role of risk assessment and safety analysis in integrated safety assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niall, R.; Hunt, M.; Wierman, T.E.

    1990-01-01

    To ensure that the design and operation of both nuclear and non- nuclear hazardous facilities is acceptable, and meets all societal safety expectations, a rigorous deterministic and probabilistic assessment is necessary. An approach is introduced, founded on the concept of an ''Integrated Safety Assessment.'' It merges the commonly performed safety and risk analyses and uses them in concert to provide decision makers with the necessary depth of understanding to achieve ''adequacy.'' 3 refs., 1 fig

  17. Risk assessment of environmentally influenced airway diseases based on time-series analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herbarth, O

    1995-09-01

    Threshold values are of prime importance in providing a sound basis for public health decisions. A key issue is determining threshold or maximum exposure values for pollutants and assessing their potential health risks. Environmental epidemiology could be instrumental in assessing these levels, especially since the assessment of ambient exposures involves relatively low concentrations of pollutants. This paper presents a statistical method that allows the determination of threshold values as well as the assessment of the associated risk using a retrospective, longitudinal study design with a prospective follow-up. Morbidity data were analyzed using the Fourier method, a time-series analysis that is based on the assumption of a high temporal resolution of the data. This method eliminates time-dependent responses like temporal inhomogeneity and pseudocorrelation. The frequency of calls for respiratory distress conditions to the regional Mobile Medical Emergency Service (MMES) in the city of Leipzig were investigated. The entire population of Leipzig served as a pool for data collection. In addition to the collection of morbidity data, air pollution measurements were taken every 30 min for the entire study period using sulfur dioxide as the regional indicator variable. This approach allowed the calculation of a dose-response curve for respiratory diseases and air pollution indices in children and adults. Significantly higher morbidities were observed above a 24-hr mean value of 0.6 mg SO2/m3 air for children and 0.8 mg SO2/m3 for adults.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

  18. Risk-based decision analysis for groundwater operable units

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiaramonte, G.R.

    1995-01-01

    This document proposes a streamlined approach and methodology for performing risk assessment in support of interim remedial measure (IRM) decisions involving the remediation of contaminated groundwater on the Hanford Site. This methodology, referred to as ''risk-based decision analysis,'' also supports the specification of target cleanup volumes and provides a basis for design and operation of the groundwater remedies. The risk-based decision analysis can be completed within a short time frame and concisely documented. The risk-based decision analysis is more versatile than the qualitative risk assessment (QRA), because it not only supports the need for IRMs, but also provides criteria for defining the success of the IRMs and provides the risk-basis for decisions on final remedies. For these reasons, it is proposed that, for groundwater operable units, the risk-based decision analysis should replace the more elaborate, costly, and time-consuming QRA

  19. Summary of EPA's risk assessment results from the analysis of alternative methods of low-level waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bandrowski, M.S.; Hung, C.Y.; Meyer, G.L.; Rogers, V.C.

    1987-01-01

    Evaluation of the potential health risk and individual exposure from a broad number of disposal alternatives is an important part of EPA's program to develop generally applicable environmental standards for the land disposal of low-level radioactive wastes (LLW). The Agency has completed an analysis of the potential population health risks and maximum individual exposures from ten disposal methods under three different hydrogeological and climatic settings. This paper briefly describes the general input and analysis procedures used in the risk assessment for LLW disposal and presents their preliminary results. Some important lessons learned from simulating LLW disposal under a large variety of methods and conditions are identified

  20. Transport project evaluation: feasibility risk assessment and scenario forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents a new approach to transport project assessment in terms of feasibility risk assessment and reference class forecasting. Conventionally, transport project assessment is based upon a Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) where evaluation criteria such as Benefit Cost Ratios (BCR...... on the preliminary construction cost estimates. Hereafter, a quantitative risk analysis is provided making use of Monte Carlo simulation. This approach facilitates random input parameters based upon reference class forecasting, hence, a parameter data fit has been performed in order to obtain validated probability...... Scenario Forecasting (RSF) frame. The RSF is anchored in the cost-benefit analysis; thus, it provides decision-makers with a quantitative mean of assessing the transport infrastructure project. First, the RSF method introduces uncertainties within the CBA by applying Optimism Bias uplifts...

  1. Meeting on risk and monitoring analysis techniques for food safety - RLA/5/060/ARCAL Project (ARCAL CXXVIII): sampling plans and introduction to chemical risk assessment in food innocuousness

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2013-03-01

    Some of the Latinoamerican countries such us Bolivia, Colombia, Uruguay and Venezuela participant in the meeting gave an exposition about the risk analysis and monitoring techniques in food safety in their countyries. With the aim to study components of risk analysis, food innocuousness, evaluation and chemical dangers, toxicity, exposure, change of paradigms in the global food system, data sources, study in animals and in vitro, sensitivity analysis, risk assessment in health it carried out the meeting

  2. 2009 Space Shuttle Probabilistic Risk Assessment Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamlin, Teri L.; Canga, Michael A.; Boyer, Roger L.; Thigpen, Eric B.

    2010-01-01

    Loss of a Space Shuttle during flight has severe consequences, including loss of a significant national asset; loss of national confidence and pride; and, most importantly, loss of human life. The Shuttle Probabilistic Risk Assessment (SPRA) is used to identify risk contributors and their significance; thus, assisting management in determining how to reduce risk. In 2006, an overview of the SPRA Iteration 2.1 was presented at PSAM 8 [1]. Like all successful PRAs, the SPRA is a living PRA and has undergone revisions since PSAM 8. The latest revision to the SPRA is Iteration 3. 1, and it will not be the last as the Shuttle program progresses and more is learned. This paper discusses the SPRA scope, overall methodology, and results, as well as provides risk insights. The scope, assumptions, uncertainties, and limitations of this assessment provide risk-informed perspective to aid management s decision-making process. In addition, this paper compares the Iteration 3.1 analysis and results to the Iteration 2.1 analysis and results presented at PSAM 8.

  3. State of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Conrad, J.

    1978-03-01

    In view of the growing importance assumed in recent years by scientific work on the calculation, quantification, evaluation and acceptance as well as behavior in the face of risks in general and more specifically, the risks of large industrial plants, the report attempts to provide a survey of the current situation, results and evaluation of this new branch of research, risk assessment. The emphasis of the report is on the basic discussion and criticism of the theoretical and methodological approaches used in the field of risk assessment (section 3). It is concerned above all with - methodical problems of determining and quantifying risks (3.1) - questions of the possibility of risk evaluation and comp arison (3.1, 3.2) - the premises of normative and empirical studies on decision making under risk (3.2, 3.3) - investigations into society's acceptance of risks involved in the introduction of new technologies (3.4) - attempts to combine various aspects of the field of risk assessment in a unified concept (3.5, 3.6, 3.7). Because risk assessment is embedded in the framework of decision theory and technology assessment, it can be implicitly evaluated at a more general level within this framework, as far as its possibilities and weaknesses of method and application are concerned (section 4). Sections 2 and 5 deal with the social context of origin and utilization of risk assessment. Finally, an attempt is made at a summary indicating the possible future development of risk assessment. (orig./HP) [de

  4. Development of reliability and probabilistic safety assessment program RiskA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Yican

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • There are four parts in the structure of RiskA. User input part lets users input the PSA model and some necessary data by GUI or model transformation tool. In calculation engine part, fault tree analysis, event tree analysis, uncertainty analysis, sensitivity analysis, importance analysis and failure mode and effects analysis are supplied. User output part outputs the analysis results, user customized reports and some other data. The last part includes reliability database, some other common tools and help documents. • RiskA has several advanced features. Extensible framework makes it easy to add any new functions, making RiskA to be a large platform of reliability and probabilistic safety assessment. It is very fast to analysis fault tree in RiskA because many advanced algorithm improvement were made. Many model formats can be imported and exported, which made the PSA model in the commercial software can be easily transformed to adapt RiskA platform. Web-based co-modeling let several users in different places work together whenever they are online. • The comparison between RiskA and other mature PSA codes (e.g. CAFTA, RiskSpectrum, XFTA) has demonstrated that the calculation and analysis of RiskA is correct and efficient. Based on the development of this code package, many applications of safety and reliability analysis of some research reactors and nuclear power plants were performed. The development of RiskA appears to be of realistic and potential value for academic research and practical operation safety management of nuclear power plants in China and abroad. - Abstract: PSA (probabilistic safety assessment) software, the indispensable tool in nuclear safety assessment, has been widely used. An integrated reliability and PSA program named RiskA has been developed by FDS Team. RiskA supplies several standard PSA modules including fault tree analysis, event tree analysis, uncertainty analysis, failure mode and effect analysis and reliability

  5. Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage.

  6. Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caskey, Susan Adele [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Gaudioso, Jennifer M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Wagner, Stefan M. [Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, MB (Canada). Canadian Science Centre for Human and Animal Health (CSCHAH); Shigematsu, Mika [National Inst. of Infectious Diseases (NIID), Tokyo (Japan); Risi, George [Infectious Disease Specialists, P.C, Missoula, MT (United States); Kozlovac, Joe [US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA)., Beltsville, MD (United States); Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke [Statens Serum Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Prat, Esmeralda [Bayer CropScience, Monheim am Rhein (Germany)

    2010-10-01

    Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.

  7. Gender and risk assessment in contraceptive technologies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Kammen, Jessika; Oudshoorn, Nelly E.J.

    This paper concerns a comparison of risk assessment practices of contraceptives for women and men. Our analysis shows how the evaluation of health risks of contraceptives does not simply reflect the specific effects of chemical compounds in the human body. Rather, we show how side-effects were rated

  8. An Analysis Of Tensile Test Results to Assess the Innovation Risk for an Additive Manufacturing Technology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adamczak Stanisław

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to assess the innovation risk for an additive manufacturing process. The analysis was based on the results of static tensile tests obtained for specimens made of photocured resin. The assessment involved analyzing the measurement uncertainty by applying the FMEA method. The structure of the causes and effects of the discrepancies was illustrated using the Ishikawa diagram. The risk priority numbers were calculated. The uncertainty of the tensile test measurement was determined for three printing orientations. The results suggest that the material used to fabricate the tensile specimens shows clear anisotropy of the properties in relation to the printing direction.

  9. Heuristics structure and pervade formal risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacGillivray, Brian H

    2014-04-01

    Lay perceptions of risk appear rooted more in heuristics than in reason. A major concern of the risk regulation literature is that such "error-strewn" perceptions may be replicated in policy, as governments respond to the (mis)fears of the citizenry. This has led many to advocate a relatively technocratic approach to regulating risk, characterized by high reliance on formal risk and cost-benefit analysis. However, through two studies of chemicals regulation, we show that the formal assessment of risk is pervaded by its own set of heuristics. These include rules to categorize potential threats, define what constitutes valid data, guide causal inference, and to select and apply formal models. Some of these heuristics lay claim to theoretical or empirical justifications, others are more back-of-the-envelope calculations, while still more purport not to reflect some truth but simply to constrain discretion or perform a desk-clearing function. These heuristics can be understood as a way of authenticating or formalizing risk assessment as a scientific practice, representing a series of rules for bounding problems, collecting data, and interpreting evidence (a methodology). Heuristics are indispensable elements of induction. And so they are not problematic per se, but they can become so when treated as laws rather than as contingent and provisional rules. Pitfalls include the potential for systematic error, masking uncertainties, strategic manipulation, and entrenchment. Our central claim is that by studying the rules of risk assessment qua rules, we develop a novel representation of the methods, conventions, and biases of the prior art. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  10. Putting problem formulation at the forefront of GMO risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tepfer, Mark; Racovita, Monica; Craig, Wendy

    2013-01-01

    When applying risk assessment and the broader process of risk analysis to decisions regarding the dissemination of genetically modified organisms (GMOs), the process has a tendency to become remarkably complex. Further, as greater numbers of countries consider authorising the large-scale dissemination of GMOs, and as GMOs with more complex traits reach late stages of development, there has been increasing concern about the burden posed by the complexity of risk analysis. We present here an improved approach for GMO risk analysis that gives a central role to problem formulation. Further, the risk analysis strategy has been clarified and simplified in order to make rigorously scientific risk assessment and risk analysis more broadly accessible to diverse stakeholder groups.

  11. 7 CFR 319.40-11 - Plant pest risk assessment standards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... analysis to determine the plant pest risks associated with each requested importation in order to determine... 7 Agriculture 5 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Plant pest risk assessment standards. 319.40-11... Unmanufactured Wood Articles § 319.40-11 Plant pest risk assessment standards. When evaluating a request to...

  12. Analysis of rail accident frequencies and severities for the assessment of radioactive material transport risk - Summary report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heywood, J.D.; Schwartz, G.; Fett, J.

    2001-01-01

    This shortened version of the final contractual report to the European Commission DGXVII summarises the work performed and the conclusions drawn from consideration, comparison and analysis of transport accident frequency and severity assessment methods for radioactive material transport by rail. This paper aims to provide an introduction to the study whose final report is 155 pages in length. The findings are based on a comprehensive review of transport risk assessment methods and related databases available to EU member states. The emphasis has been on the probabilistic accident severity and frequency assessment methodologies developed and used by the organisations involved in this EU-funded research project - AEA Technology and GRS. The results should be of major assistance in the understanding and development of standardised quantitative risk assessment models. Further work is suggested to underpin the development of a harmonised accident methodology including the collection of more detailed rail data and analysis on a year by year basis as well as further consideration of the assumptions made for fire accident scenarios. (author)

  13. Excipient Usage Technical Risk Assessment for Generic Solid Dose Products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ajay Babu Pazhayattil

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes an assessment methodology for solid dose generic small molecule drug products. It addresses the ‘usage of the excipient’ portion of the trinomial by utilizing the systematic approach of Risk Identification, Risk Analysis and Risk Evaluation as per ICH Q9 Quality Risk Management outlined for developing risk control strategies. The assessment and maintenance of excipient risk profile is essential to minimize any potential risk associated to excipients impacting patients.

  14. Integrate life-cycle assessment and risk analysis results, not methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linkov, Igor; Trump, Benjamin D; Wender, Ben A; Seager, Thomas P; Kennedy, Alan J; Keisler, Jeffrey M

    2017-08-04

    Two analytic perspectives on environmental assessment dominate environmental policy and decision-making: risk analysis (RA) and life-cycle assessment (LCA). RA focuses on management of a toxicological hazard in a specific exposure scenario, while LCA seeks a holistic estimation of impacts of thousands of substances across multiple media, including non-toxicological and non-chemically deleterious effects. While recommendations to integrate the two approaches have remained a consistent feature of environmental scholarship for at least 15 years, the current perception is that progress is slow largely because of practical obstacles, such as a lack of data, rather than insurmountable theoretical difficulties. Nonetheless, the emergence of nanotechnology presents a serious challenge to both perspectives. Because the pace of nanomaterial innovation far outstrips acquisition of environmentally relevant data, it is now clear that a further integration of RA and LCA based on dataset completion will remain futile. In fact, the two approaches are suited for different purposes and answer different questions. A more pragmatic approach to providing better guidance to decision-makers is to apply the two methods in parallel, integrating only after obtaining separate results.

  15. Overview of seismic probabilistic risk assessment for structural analysis in nuclear facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reed, J.W.

    1989-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) for seismic events is currently being performed for nuclear and DOE facilities. The background on seismic PRA is presented along with a basic description of the method. The seismic PRA technique is applicable to other critical facilities besides nuclear plants. The different approaches for obtained structure fragility curves are discussed and their applications to structures and equipment, in general, are addressed. It is concluded that seismic PRA is a useful technique for conducting probability analysis for a wide range of classes of structures and equipment

  16. Food allergy and risk assessment: Current status and future directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remington, Benjamin C.

    2017-09-01

    Risk analysis is a three part, interactive process that consists of a scientific risk assessment, a risk management strategy and an exchange of information through risk communication. Quantitative risk assessment methodologies are now available and widely used for assessing risks regarding the unintentional consumption of major, regulated allergens but new or modified proteins can also pose a risk of de-novo sensitization. The risks due to de-novo sensitization to new food allergies are harder to quantify. There is a need for a systematic, comprehensive battery of tests and assessment strategy to identify and characterise de-novo sensitization to new proteins and the risks associated with them. A risk assessment must be attuned to answer the risk management questions and needs. Consequently, the hazard and risk assessment methods applied and the desired information are determined by the requested outcome for risk management purposes and decisions to be made. The COST Action network (ImpARAS, www.imparas.eu) has recently started to discuss these risk management criteria from first principles and will continue with the broader subject of improving strategies for allergen risk assessment throughout 2016-2018/9.

  17. Risk-benefit analysis and public policy: a bibliography

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clark, E.M.; Van Horn, A.J.

    1976-11-01

    Risk-benefit analysis has been implicitly practiced whenever decision-makers are confronted with decisions involving risks to life, health, or to the environment. Various methodologies have been developed to evaluate relevant criteria and to aid in assessing the impacts of alternative projects. Among these have been cost-benefit analysis, which has been widely used for project evaluation. However, in many cases it has been difficult to assign dollar costs to those criteria involving risks and benefits which are not now assigned explicit monetary values in our economic system. Hence, risk-benefit analysis has evolved to become more than merely an extension of cost-benefit analysis, and many methods have been applied to examine the trade-offs between risks and benefits. In addition, new scientific and statistical techniques have been developed for assessing current and future risks. The 950 references included in this bibliography are meant to suggest the breadth of those methodologies which have been applied to decisions involving risk.

  18. Risk-benefit analysis and public policy: a bibliography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clark, E.M.; Van Horn, A.J.

    1976-11-01

    Risk-benefit analysis has been implicitly practiced whenever decision-makers are confronted with decisions involving risks to life, health, or to the environment. Various methodologies have been developed to evaluate relevant criteria and to aid in assessing the impacts of alternative projects. Among these have been cost-benefit analysis, which has been widely used for project evaluation. However, in many cases it has been difficult to assign dollar costs to those criteria involving risks and benefits which are not now assigned explicit monetary values in our economic system. Hence, risk-benefit analysis has evolved to become more than merely an extension of cost-benefit analysis, and many methods have been applied to examine the trade-offs between risks and benefits. In addition, new scientific and statistical techniques have been developed for assessing current and future risks. The 950 references included in this bibliography are meant to suggest the breadth of those methodologies which have been applied to decisions involving risk

  19. Development of a methodology for post closure radiological risk analysis of underground waste repositories. Illustrative assessment of the Harwell site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gralewski, Z.A.; Kane, P.; Nicholls, D.B.

    1987-06-01

    A probabilistic risk analysis (pra) is demonstrated for a number of ground water mediated release scenarios at the Harwell Site for a hypothetical repository at a depth of about 150 metres. This is the second stage of development of an overall risk assessment methodology. A procedure for carrying out multi-scenario assessment using available probabilistic risk assessment (pra) models is presented and a general methodology for combining risk contributions is outlined. Appropriate levels of model complexity in pra are discussed. Modelling requirements for the treatment of multiple simultaneous pathways and of site evolution are outlined. Further developments of pra systems are required to increase the realism of both the models and their mode of application, and hence to improve estimates of risk. (author)

  20. Natural risks assessment and management (project of monograph)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ragozin, A.L.

    1998-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: large-scale theoretic and practical works on the issue of natural risk assessment and management started in Russia in the end of the 80's. By now there has been made a considerable progress, which allowed for the preparation of a collective monograph on the subject mentioned in the title of this abstract. It is supposed to be published in 1999 in order to become a Russian contribution to the International Decade of Natural Disasters Reduction. The monograph included 6 chapters with the following titles: 1. Methodological foundations of natural risk analysis and assessment. 2. Investigating and forecasting natural hazards for the purpose of risk assessment. 3. Assessment of economic, social and ecological damage from natural hazards. 4, Theory of natural risk assessment. 5. Examples of natural risk assessment and mapping. 6. Natural risk management. In the report there is described the content of the monograph and unsolved questions are discussed. Executive editor offers all international experts to cooperate in the compilation of this monograph, which is to be completed by the end of 1998, especially of chapter 5 and 6. (author)

  1. Resource handbook on transport risk assessment (invited paper)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, S.Y.; Biwer, B.M.; Monette, F.A.; Luna, R.; Weiner, R.; Yoshimura, R.; Detrick, C.; Dunn, T.; Maheras, S.; Bhatnager, S.; Kapoor, A.K.

    2003-01-01

    The US Department of Energy's (DOE's) National Transportation Program established the DOE Transportation Risk Assessment Working Group (TRAWG) to develop the Resource Handbook on DOE Transportation Risk Assessment, published in July 2002. The working group is comprised of technical experts representing DOE national laboratories, the DOE Naval Reactors Program, and DOE contractors. The motivation behind preparing this handbook was to document and disseminate lessons learned and information accumulated from more than 20 years of experience by DOE and its contractors in preparing transport risk assessments that address the shipment of virtually all types of radioactive materials and wastes. The handbook is intended to serve as a primary source of information on conducting transport risk assessments for shipments of radioactive materials or wastes under both normal and accident conditions. The paper provides an overview of the information contained in the handbook. It should be recognised that development of radioactive materials transport risk assessment is an ongoing process, and that the analysis methods are regularly improved. The Resource Handbook on DOE Transportation Risk Assessment appears on the Web at www.ntp.doe.gov/transrisk_handbook.pdf. (author)

  2. 2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA has announced The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OHApril 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!The Annual Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference is a unique meeting where several Government Agencies come together to discuss toxicology and risk assessment issues that are not only of concern to the government, but also to a broader audience including academia and industry. The theme of this year's conference is Emerging Issues and Challenges in Risk Assessment and the preliminary agenda includes: Plenary Sessions and prominent speakers (tentative) include: Issues of Emerging Chemical ContaminantsUncertainty and Variability in Risk Assessment Use of Mechanistic data in IARC evaluationsParallel Sessions:Uncertainty and Variability in Dose-Response Assessment Recent Advances in Toxicity and Risk Assessment of RDX The Use of Epidemiologic Data for Risk Assessment Applications Cumulative Health Risk Assessment:

  3. [Uncertainty analysis of ecological risk assessment caused by heavy-metals deposition from MSWI emission].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, Zhi-Heng; Sun, Jia-Ren; Wu, Dui; Fan, Shao-Jia; Ren, Ming-Zhong; Lü, Jia-Yang

    2014-06-01

    The CALPUFF model was applied to simulate the ground-level atmospheric concentrations of Pb and Cd from municipal solid waste incineration (MSWI) plants, and the soil concentration model was used to estimate soil concentration increments after atmospheric deposition based on Monte Carlo simulation, then ecological risk assessment was conducted by the potential ecological risk index method. The results showed that the largest atmospheric concentrations of Pb and Cd were 5.59 x 109-3) microg x m(-3) and 5.57 x 10(-4) microg x m(-3), respectively, while the maxima of soil concentration incremental medium of Pb and Cd were 2.26 mg x kg(-1) and 0.21 mg x kg(-1), respectively; High risk areas were located next to the incinerators, Cd contributed the most to the ecological risk, and Pb was basically free of pollution risk; Higher ecological hazard level was predicted at the most polluted point in urban areas with a 55.30% probability, while in rural areas, the most polluted point was assessed to moderate ecological hazard level with a 72.92% probability. In addition, sensitivity analysis of calculation parameters in the soil concentration model was conducted, which showed the simulated results of urban and rural area were most sensitive to soil mix depth and dry deposition rate, respectively.

  4. Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    How the EPA conducts risk assessment to protect human health and the environment. Several assessments are included with the guidelines, models, databases, state-based RSL Tables, local contacts and framework documents used to perform these assessments.

  5. Risk assessments for the disposal of high level radioactive wastes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, C.F.

    1975-01-01

    The risks associated with the disposal of high level wastes derive from the potential for release of radioactive materials into the environment. The assessment of these risks requires a methodology for risk analysis, an identification of the radioactive sources, and a method by which to express the relative hazard of the various radionuclides that comprise the high level waste. The development of a methodology for risk analysis is carried out after a review of previous work in the area of probabilistic risk assessment. The methodology suggested involves the probabilistic analysis of a general accident consequence distribution. In this analysis, the frequency aspect of the distribution is treated separately from the normalized probability function. At the final stage of the analysis, the frequency and probability characteristics of the distribution are recombined to provide an estimate of the risk. The characterization of the radioactive source term is accomplished using the ORIGEN computer code. Calculations are carried out for various reactor types and fuel cycles, and the overall waste hazard for a projected thirty-five year nuclear power program is determined

  6. Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

    2006-01-01

    Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of

  7. Military Ecological Risk Assessment Framework (MERAF) for Assessment of Risks of Military Training and Testing to Natural Resources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Suter II, G.W.

    2003-06-18

    The objective of this research is to provide the DoD with a framework based on a systematic, risk-based approach to assess impacts for management of natural resources in an ecosystem context. This risk assessment framework is consistent with, but extends beyond, the EPA's ecological risk assessment framework, and specifically addresses DoD activities and management needs. MERAF is intended to be consistent with existing procedures for environmental assessment and planning with DoD testing and training. The intention is to supplement these procedures rather than creating new procedural requirements. MERAF is suitable for use for training and testing area assessment and management. It does not include human health risks nor does it address specific permitting or compliance requirements, although it may be useful in some of these cases. Use of MERAF fits into the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) process by providing a consistent and rigorous way of organizing and conducting the technical analysis for Environmental Impact Statements (EISs) (Sigal 1993; Carpenter 1995; Canter and Sadler 1997). It neither conflicts with, nor replaces, procedural requirements within the NEPA process or document management processes already in place within DoD.

  8. Assessment of health risks of policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ádám, Balázs; Molnár, Ágnes; Ádány, Róza; Bianchi, Fabrizio; Bitenc, Katarina; Chereches, Razvan; Cori, Liliana; Fehr, Rainer; Kobza, Joanna; Kollarova, Jana

    2014-01-01

    The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidance and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals

  9. Assessment of health risks of policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ádám, Balázs, E-mail: badam@cmss.sdu.dk [Unit for Health Promotion Research, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Southern Denmark, Niels Bohrs Vej 9, DK-6700 Esbjerg (Denmark); Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Molnár, Ágnes, E-mail: MolnarAg@smh.ca [Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Centre for Research on Inner City Health, Keenan Research Centre, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St Michael' s Hospital, Victoria 209, Rm. 3-26.22, M5B 1C6 Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Ádány, Róza, E-mail: adany.roza@sph.unideb.hu [Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Bianchi, Fabrizio, E-mail: Fabriepi@ifc.cnr.it [Unit of Environmental Epidemiology, Institute of Clinical Physiology, National Council of Research, Moruzzi 1, 56124 Pisa (Italy); Bitenc, Katarina, E-mail: katarina.bitenc@ivz-rs.si [National Institute of Public Health, Trubarjeva 2, SI-1000 Ljubljana (Slovenia); Chereches, Razvan, E-mail: razvan.m.chereches@gmail.com [Faculty of Political, Administrative and Communication Sciences, Babes-Bolyai University, Strada Mihail Kogalniceanu 1, 3400 Cluj (Romania); Cori, Liliana, E-mail: liliana.cori@ifc.cnr.it [Unit of Environmental Epidemiology, Institute of Clinical Physiology, National Council of Research, Moruzzi 1, 56124 Pisa (Italy); Fehr, Rainer, E-mail: rainer.fehr@uni-bielefeld.de [NRW Centre for Health, Westerfeldstr. 35-37, 33611 Bielefeld (Germany); Kobza, Joanna, E-mail: koga1@poczta.onet.pl [Public Health Department, Silesian Medical University, 18 Medykow Street, 40-752 Katowice (Poland); Kollarova, Jana, E-mail: janakollarova@yahoo.com [Department of Health Promotion, Regional Public Health Authority, Ipelska 1, 04011 Kosice (Slovakia); and others

    2014-09-15

    The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidance and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals.

  10. Environmental risk assessment of low density polyethylene unit using the method of failure mode and effect analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salati Parinaz

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The ninth olefin plan of Arya Sasol Petrochemical Company (A.S.P.C. is regarded the largest gas Olefin Unit located on Pars Special Economic Energy Zone (P.S.E.E.Z. Considering the importance of the petrochemical unit, its environmental assessment seems necessary to identify and reduce potential hazards. For this purpose, after determining the scope of the study area, identification and measurement of the environmental parameters, environmental risk assessment of the unit was carried out using Environment Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (EFMEA. Using the noted method, sources causing environmental risks were identified, rated and prioritized. Beside, the impacts of the environmental aspects derived from the unit activities as well as their consequences were also analyzed. Furthermore, the identified impacts were prioritized based on Risk Priority Number (RPN and severity level of the consequences imposed on the affected environment. After performing statistical calculations, it was found that the environmental aspects owing the risk priority number higher than 15 have a high level of risk. Results obtained from Low Density Polyethylene Unit revealed that the highest risk belongs to the emergency vent system with risk priority number equal to 48. It is occurred due to imperfect performance of the reactor safety system leading to the emissions of ethylene gas, particles, and radioactive steam as well as air and noise pollutions. Results derived from secondary assessment of the environmental aspects, through difference in calculated RPN and activities risk levels showed that employing modern methods and risk assessment are have remarkably reduced the severity of risk and consequently detracted the damages and losses incurred on the environment.

  11. TRECII: a computer program for transportation risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Franklin, A.L.

    1980-05-01

    A risk-based fault tree analysis method has been developed at the Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) for analysis of nuclear fuel cycle operations. This methodology was developed for the Department of Energy (DOE) as a risk analysis tool for evaluating high level waste management systems. A computer package consisting of three programs was written at that time to assist in the performance of risk assessment: ACORN (draws fault trees), MFAULT (analyzes fault trees), and RAFT (calculates risk). This methodology evaluates release consequences and estimates the frequency of occurrence of these consequences. This document describes an additional risk calculating code which can be used in conjunction with two of the three codes for transportation risk assessment. TRECII modifies the definition of risk used in RAFT (prob. x release) to accommodate release consequences in terms of fatalities. Throughout this report risk shall be defined as probability times consequences (fatalities are one possible health effect consequence). This methodology has been applied to a variety of energy material transportation systems. Typically the material shipped has been radioactive, although some adaptation to fossil fuels has occurred. The approach is normally applied to truck or train transport systems with some adaptation to pipelines and aircraft. TRECII is designed to be used primarily in conjunction with MFAULT; however, with a moderate amount of effort by the user, it can be implemented independent of the risk analysis package developed at PNL. Code description and user instructions necessary for the implementation of the TRECII program are provided

  12. Advancing effects analysis for integrated, large-scale wildfire risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthew P. Thompson; David E. Calkin; Julie W. Gilbertson-Day; Alan A. Ager

    2011-01-01

    In this article, we describe the design and development of a quantitative, geospatial risk assessment tool intended to facilitate monitoring trends in wildfire risk over time and to provide information useful in prioritizing fuels treatments and mitigation measures. The research effort is designed to develop, from a strategic view, a first approximation of how both...

  13. Risk assessment under deep uncertainty: A methodological comparison

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shortridge, Julie; Aven, Terje; Guikema, Seth

    2017-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) has proven to be an invaluable tool for evaluating risks in complex engineered systems. However, there is increasing concern that PRA may not be adequate in situations with little underlying knowledge to support probabilistic representation of uncertainties. As analysts and policy makers turn their attention to deeply uncertain hazards such as climate change, a number of alternatives to traditional PRA have been proposed. This paper systematically compares three diverse approaches for risk analysis under deep uncertainty (qualitative uncertainty factors, probability bounds, and robust decision making) in terms of their representation of uncertain quantities, analytical output, and implications for risk management. A simple example problem is used to highlight differences in the way that each method relates to the traditional risk assessment process and fundamental issues associated with risk assessment and description. We find that the implications for decision making are not necessarily consistent between approaches, and that differences in the representation of uncertain quantities and analytical output suggest contexts in which each method may be most appropriate. Finally, each methodology demonstrates how risk assessment can inform decision making in deeply uncertain contexts, informing more effective responses to risk problems characterized by deep uncertainty. - Highlights: • We compare three diverse approaches to risk assessment under deep uncertainty. • A simple example problem highlights differences in analytical process and results. • Results demonstrate how methodological choices can impact risk assessment results.

  14. Systamatic approach to integration of a human reliability analysis into a NPP probabalistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fragola, J.R.

    1984-01-01

    This chapter describes the human reliability analysis tasks which were employed in the evaluation of the overall probability of an internal flood sequence and its consequences in terms of disabling vulnerable risk significant equipment. Topics considered include the problem familiarization process, the identification and classification of key human interactions, a human interaction review of potential initiators, a maintenance and operations review, human interaction identification, quantification model selection, the definition of operator-induced sequences, the quantification of specific human interactions, skill- and rule-based interactions, knowledge-based interactions, and the incorporation of human interaction-related events into the event tree structure. It is concluded that an integrated approach to the analysis of human interaction within the context of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is feasible

  15. Guidance for treatment of variability and uncertainty in ecological risk assessments of contaminated sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-06-01

    Uncertainty is a seemingly simple concept that has caused great confusion and conflict in the field of risk assessment. This report offers guidance for the analysis and presentation of variability and uncertainty in ecological risk assessments, an important issue in the remedial investigation and feasibility study processes. This report discusses concepts of probability in terms of variance and uncertainty, describes how these concepts differ in ecological risk assessment from human health risk assessment, and describes probabilistic aspects of specific ecological risk assessment techniques. The report ends with 17 points to consider in performing an uncertainty analysis for an ecological risk assessment of a contaminated site

  16. A Single Conjunction Risk Assessment Metric: the F-Value

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frigm, Ryan Clayton; Newman, Lauri K.

    2009-01-01

    The Conjunction Assessment Team at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center provides conjunction risk assessment for many NASA robotic missions. These risk assessments are based on several figures of merit, such as miss distance, probability of collision, and orbit determination solution quality. However, these individual metrics do not singly capture the overall risk associated with a conjunction, making it difficult for someone without this complete understanding to take action, such as an avoidance maneuver. The goal of this analysis is to introduce a single risk index metric that can easily convey the level of risk without all of the technical details. The proposed index is called the conjunction "F-value." This paper presents the concept of the F-value and the tuning of the metric for use in routine Conjunction Assessment operations.

  17. Economic aspects of risk assessment in chemical safety

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Drummond, M F; Shannon, H S

    1986-05-01

    This paper considers how the economic aspects of risk assessment in chemical safety can be strengthened. Its main focus is on how economic appraisal techniques, such as cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness analysis, can be adapted to the requirements of the risk-assessment process. Following a discussion of the main methodological issues raised by the use of economic appraisal, illustrated by examples from the health and safety field, a number of practical issues are discussed. These include the consideration of the distribution of costs, effects and benefits, taking account of uncertainty, risk probabilities and public perception, making the appraisal techniques useful to the early stages of the risk-assessment process and structuring the appraisal to permit continuous feedback to the participants in the risk-assessment process. It is concluded that while the way of thinking embodied in economic appraisal is highly relevant to the consideration of choices in chemical safety, the application of these principles in formal analysis of risk reduction procedures presents a more mixed picture. The main suggestions for improvement in the analyses performed are the undertaking of sensitivity analyses of study results to changes in the key assumptions, the presentation of the distribution of costs and benefits by viewpoint, the comparison of health and safety measures in terms of their incremental cost per life-year (or quality-adjusted life-year) gained and the more frequent retrospective review and revision of the economic analyses that are undertaken.

  18. Environmental and industrial risk and crisis assessment: a cognitive approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jacques, J.M.; Gatot, L.

    1998-01-01

    The author have tried to show that rational risk analysis exhibits some severe shortcomings in areas where the danger is new and the scientific knowledge is limited and controversial. In such contexts, the traditional dichotomy between objective and subjective risk is not of much help. Thus, traditional risk communication based on information, education, trust in institutions, is not adapted here. The first elements of analysis proposed in this tentative paper suggest that in such contexts, risk communication should be based on participatory methods such as forums for debate. The stake is therefore the democratization of assessment procedure and the development of different means which allow to couple risk and technology assessment. (authors)

  19. Environmental and industrial risk and crisis assessment: a cognitive approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jacques, J.M.; Gatot, L. [Research Center for Crisis and Conflict Management (ReCCCoM), University of Namur (FUNDP), Faculty of Economic, Social and Management Sciences, Namur (Belgium)

    1998-07-01

    The author have tried to show that rational risk analysis exhibits some severe shortcomings in areas where the danger is new and the scientific knowledge is limited and controversial. In such contexts, the traditional dichotomy between objective and subjective risk is not of much help. Thus, traditional risk communication based on information, education, trust in institutions, is not adapted here. The first elements of analysis proposed in this tentative paper suggest that in such contexts, risk communication should be based on participatory methods such as forums for debate. The stake is therefore the democratization of assessment procedure and the development of different means which allow to couple risk and technology assessment. (authors)

  20. Developing RESRAD-BASELINE for environmental baseline risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheng, Jing-Jy.

    1995-01-01

    RESRAD-BASELINE is a computer code developed at Argonne developed at Argonne National Laboratory for the US Department of Energy (DOE) to perform both radiological and chemical risk assessments. The code implements the baseline risk assessment guidance of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA 1989). The computer code calculates (1) radiation doses and cancer risks from exposure to radioactive materials, and (2) hazard indexes and cancer risks from exposure to noncarcinogenic and carcinogenic chemicals, respectively. The user can enter measured or predicted environmental media concentrations from the graphic interface and can simulate different exposure scenarios by selecting the appropriate pathways and modifying the exposure parameters. The database used by PESRAD-BASELINE includes dose conversion factors and slope factors for radionuclides and toxicity information and properties for chemicals. The user can modify the database for use in the calculation. Sensitivity analysis can be performed while running the computer code to examine the influence of the input parameters. Use of RESRAD-BASELINE for risk analysis is easy, fast, and cost-saving. Furthermore, it ensures in consistency in methodology for both radiological and chemical risk analyses

  1. Ecotoxicological, ecophysiological and biogeochemical fundamentals of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bashkin, V.; Evstafjeva, E.

    1995-01-01

    A quantitative risk assessment (RA) for complex influence of different factors in heavy polluted regions is possible to carry out only on a basis of determination of various links of biogeochemical trophical chains and analysis of the whole biogeochemical structure of the region under study. As an integrative assessment, the human adaptability should be chosen because the majority of trophical chains are closed by man. The given integrative criteria includes biogeochemical, ecophysiological and ecotoxicological assessment of risk factors. Consequently, ecological-biogeochemical regionalization, ecophysiological and ecotoxicological monitoring of human population health are the important approaches to RA. These criteria should be conjugated with LCA of various industrial and agricultural products. At the ultimate degree, the given approaches are needed for areas where traditional pollutants (heavy metals, POPS, pesticides, fertilizers) are enforced sharply by radioactive pollution. Due to the complex influence of pollutants, it is impossible to use individual guidelines. For RA of these complex pollutants, the methods of human adaptability assessment to a polluted environment have to be carried out. These methods include biogeochemical, ecotoxicological and ecophysiological analysis of risk factors as well as quantitative uncertainty analysis. Furthermore, the modern statistical methods such as correlative graphs etc., have to be used for quantitative assessment of human adaptability to complex influence of pollutants. The results obtained in the Chernobyl region have shown the acceptability of suggested methods

  2. Development of risk assessment tool for foundry workers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohan, G Madhan; Prasad, P S S; Mokkapati, Anil Kumar; Venkataraman, G

    2008-01-01

    Occupational ill-health and work-related disorders are predominant in manufacturing industries due to the inevitable presence of manual work even after several waves of industrial automation and technological advancements. Ergonomic risk factors and musculoskeletal disorders like low-back symptoms have been noted amongst foundry workers. The purpose of this study was to formulate and develop a Physical Effort Index to assess risk factor. The questionnaire tool applicable to foundry environment has been designed and validated. The data recorded through survey across the foundries has been subjected to regression analysis to correlate between proposed physical effort index and the standard Borg's Ratings of Perceived Exertion (RPE) scale. The physical efforts of sixty seven workers in various foundry shop floors were assessed subjectively. The 'Job factors' and 'Work environment' were the two major parameters considered in assessing the worker discomfort level at workplace. A relation between Borg's RPE scale and the above two parameters were arrived at, through regression analysis. The study demonstrates the prevalence of risk factors amongst foundry workers and the effectiveness of the proposed index in estimating the risk factor levels. RELEVANCE TO THE INDUSTRY: The proposed tool will assist foundry supervisors and managers to assess the risk factors and helps in better understanding of the workplace to avoid work-related disorders, ensuring better output.

  3. Hanford Site's Integrated Risk Assessment Program: No-intervention risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahaffey, J.A.; Dukelow, J.S. Jr.; Stenner, R.D.

    1994-08-01

    The long-term goal of the Integrated Risk Assessment program (IRAP) is to estimate risks to workers, the public, organizations, and groups with reserved rights to Site access, the ecosystem, and natural resources to aid in managing environmental restoration and waste management at the Hanford Site. For each of these, information is needed about current risks, risks during cleanup, and endstate risks. The objective is three-fold: to determine if and when to remediate, and to what extent; to identify information unavailable but needed to make better cleanup decisions; to establish technology performance criteria for achieving desired cleanup levels; to understand costs and benefits of activities from a Site-wide perspective. The no-intervention risk, assessment is the initial evaluation of public health risks conducted under IRAP. The objective is to identify types of activities that the US Department of Energy (DOE) must accomplish for closure of the Hanford Site, defined as no further DOE intervention. There are two primary conclusions from the no-intervention risk assessment. First, some maintenance and operations activities at Hanford must be continued to protect the public from grave risks. However, when large Hanford expenditures are compared to cleanup progress, funds expended for maintenance and operations must be put in proper perspective. Second, stakeholder's emphasis on public risks at Hanford, as indicated by remediation priorities, are not in line with those estimated. The focus currently is on compliance with regulations, and on dealing with issues which are visible to stakeholders

  4. Efforts to utilize risk assessment at nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Narumiya, Yoshiyuki

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment means the use of the outputs that have been obtained through risk identification and risk analysis (risk information), followed by the determination of the response policy by comparing these outputs with the risk of judgement standards. This paper discusses the use of risk information with multifaceted nature and its significance, and the challenges to the further penetration of these items. As the lessons and risk assessment learnt from the past accidents, this paper takes up the cases of the severe accidents of Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, and Fukushima Daiichi power stations, and discusses their causes and expansion factors. In particular, at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station, important lessons were shortage in measures against the superimposition of earthquake and tsunami, and the insufficient use of risk assessment. This paper classified risk assessment from the viewpoint of risk information, and showed the contents and index for each item of risk reduction trends, risk increase trends, and measures according to the importance of risk. As the benefits of activities due to risk assessment, this paper referred to the application cases of the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of IAEA, and summarized the application activities of 10 items of risk indexes by classifying them to safety benefits and operational benefits. For example, in the item of flexible Allowed Outage Time (AOT), the avoidance of plant shutdown and the flexibility improvement of maintenance scheduling at a plant are corresponding to the above-mentioned benefits, respectively. (A.O.)

  5. Contribution to Risk Analysis of a Standard Brewery: Application of a Hygiene Assessment System Survey

    OpenAIRE

    Raposo, António; Salazar, Jairo; Pérez, Esteban; Sanjuán, Esther; Carrascosa, Conrado; Saavedra, Pedro; Millán, Rafael

    2013-01-01

    "Beer is a food product with a high consumption in Gran Canaria and the brewery industry is also present in this island. In order to carry out this study, it was designed a survey to assist in the assessment of risks from the facilities and infrastructures of the brewery, the raw materials used in the beer production and the HACCP (Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points) plan. An initial assessment of various aspects of the industry has been conducted at the beginning of hygienic-sani...

  6. Chemical Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    This course is aimed at providing an overview of the fundamental guiding principles and general methods used in chemical risk assessment. Chemical risk assessment is a complex and ever-evolving process. These principles and methods have been organized by the National Research Cou...

  7. Natural phenomena risk assessment at Rocky Flats Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Foppe, T.L.

    1985-01-01

    A realistic approach is currently being used at the Rocky Flats Plant to assess the risks of natural phenomena events. The methodology addresses frequency of occurrence estimates, damage stress on the facility and vital equipment, material-at-risk, release fractions and source terms, leakpath, dispersion and dosimetric models, risk curves, and an uncertainty analysis. 28 references, 1 figure

  8. Contrasting safety assessments of a runway incursion scenario: Event sequence analysis versus multi-agent dynamic risk modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stroeve, Sybert H.; Blom, Henk A.P.; Bakker, G.J.

    2013-01-01

    In the safety literature it has been argued, that in a complex socio-technical system safety cannot be well analysed by event sequence based approaches, but requires to capture the complex interactions and performance variability of the socio-technical system. In order to evaluate the quantitative and practical consequences of these arguments, this study compares two approaches to assess accident risk of an example safety critical sociotechnical system. It contrasts an event sequence based assessment with a multi-agent dynamic risk model (MA-DRM) based assessment, both of which are performed for a particular runway incursion scenario. The event sequence analysis uses the well-known event tree modelling formalism and the MA-DRM based approach combines agent based modelling, hybrid Petri nets and rare event Monte Carlo simulation. The comparison addresses qualitative and quantitative differences in the methods, attained risk levels, and in the prime factors influencing the safety of the operation. The assessments show considerable differences in the accident risk implications of the performance of human operators and technical systems in the runway incursion scenario. In contrast with the event sequence based results, the MA-DRM based results show that the accident risk is not manifest from the performance of and relations between individual human operators and technical systems. Instead, the safety risk emerges from the totality of the performance and interactions in the agent based model of the safety critical operation considered, which coincides very well with the argumentation in the safety literature.

  9. Risk assessment techniques for industrial installations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Croitoru, C.; Dumitrescu, M.; Preda, I.; Stefanescu, I.; Titescu, G.

    1995-01-01

    This paper presents a risk analysis which concerns the following stages: identification of the initiation events, evaluation of the occurrence frequency of different accident sequences, assessment of human, economical, and environmental consequences, risk assessment and management. The study of the accident sequences subsequent to an initiation event was achieved by the event tree method. Also, there were developed methods based on mathematical models of installations which take into account reliability data, data concerning the exploitation history, and data referring to the human factor effects in the installation operation. These methods were used for the determination of occurrence frequencies of hydrogen sulfide emission accidents in the heavy water production installations

  10. Integral risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chakraborty, S.; Yadigaroglu, G.

    1991-01-01

    The series of lectures which forms the basis of this book and took place in the winter of 1989/90 at the ETH in Zuerich were held for the purpose of discussing the stage of development of our system of ethics in view of the extremely fast pace of technological progress and the risks which accompany it. Legal, psychological and political aspects of the problem were examined, but the emphasis was placed on ethical aspects. The effects which are examined in conventional risk analyses can be considered as a part of the ethical and social aspects involved, and in turn, the consideration of ethical and social aspects can be viewed as an extension of the conventional form of risk analysis. In any case, among risk experts, the significance of ethical and social factors is uncontested, especially as regards activities which can have far-reaching repurcussions. Some objective difficulties interfere with this goal, however: - No generally acknowledged set of ethical values exists. - Cultural influences and personal motives can interfere. - Normally a risk assessment is carried out in reference to individual facilities and within a small, clearly defined framework. Under certain circumstances, generalizations which are made for complete technological systems can lead to completely different conclusions. One contribution deals with integral views of the risks of atomic energy from an ethical and social perspective. (orig.) [de

  11. Data quality objectives for two risk assessments at Hanford

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lane, N.K.; Clark, S.W.; Tranbarger, R.K.; Roeck, F.V.

    1996-01-01

    The opportunity for innovative thinking prevails at the US Department of Energy's Hanford Site in southeastern Washington state. Two projects, in particular, challenged risk assessment staff. They are: (1) a combined Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA)/Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) risk assessment, and (2) developing a risk assessment for a mixed-waste disposal facility. The combined CERCLA/RCRA risk assessment involved establishing data quality objectives (DQO) either to meet clean closure for a RCRA treatment, storage and/or disposal facility (TSD) or (if the former was not possible) to conform to goals established for industrial land use for Hanford Past-Practice Strategy (HPPS) sites. Radionuclide analysis was reduced by 60 percent through the DQO process

  12. Assessment of Transport Projects: Risk Analysis and Decision Support

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang

    2008-01-01

    functions. New research proved that specifically two impacts stood out in transport project assessment, namely, travel time savings and construction costs. The final concern of this study has been the fitting of distributions, e.g. by the use of data from major databases developed in which Optimism Bias...... choosing probability distributions and performing real term data fits. The perspective of this Ph.D. study presents newer and better understanding of assigning risks within assessment of transport projects....

  13. Toward a risk assessment of the spent fuel and high-level nuclear waste disposal system. Risk assessment requirements, literature review, methods evaluation: an interim report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Hill, D.; Rowe, M.D.; Stern, E.

    1986-04-01

    This report provides background information for a risk assessment of the disposal system for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste (HLW). It contains a literature review, a survey of the statutory requirements for risk assessment, and a preliminary evaluation of methods. The literature review outlines the state of knowledge of risk assessment and accident consequence analysis in the nuclear fuel cycle and its applicability to spent fuel and HLW disposal. The survey of statutory requirements determines the extent to which risk assessment may be needed in development of the waste-disposal system. The evaluation of methods reviews and evaluates merits and applicabilities of alternative methods for assessing risks and relates them to the problems of spent fuel and HLW disposal. 99 refs.

  14. Toward a risk assessment of the spent fuel and high-level nuclear waste disposal system. Risk assessment requirements, literature review, methods evaluation: an interim report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Hill, D.; Rowe, M.D.; Stern, E.

    1986-04-01

    This report provides background information for a risk assessment of the disposal system for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste (HLW). It contains a literature review, a survey of the statutory requirements for risk assessment, and a preliminary evaluation of methods. The literature review outlines the state of knowledge of risk assessment and accident consequence analysis in the nuclear fuel cycle and its applicability to spent fuel and HLW disposal. The survey of statutory requirements determines the extent to which risk assessment may be needed in development of the waste-disposal system. The evaluation of methods reviews and evaluates merits and applicabilities of alternative methods for assessing risks and relates them to the problems of spent fuel and HLW disposal. 99 refs

  15. Assessment of cardiovascular risk.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2010-10-01

    Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most common cause of death worldwide. Usually atherosclerosis is caused by the combined effects of multiple risk factors. For this reason, most guidelines on the prevention of CVD stress the assessment of total CVD risk. The most intensive risk factor modification can then be directed towards the individuals who will derive the greatest benefit. To assist the clinician in calculating the effects of these multiple interacting risk factors, a number of risk estimation systems have been developed. This review address several issues regarding total CVD risk assessment: Why should total CVD risk be assessed? What risk estimation systems are available? How well do these systems estimate risk? What are the advantages and disadvantages of the current systems? What are the current limitations of risk estimation systems and how can they be resolved? What new developments have occurred in CVD risk estimation?

  16. Systematic risk assessment methodology for critical infrastructure elements - Oil and Gas subsectors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gheorghiu, A.-D.; Ozunu, A.

    2012-04-01

    The concern for the protection of critical infrastructure has been rapidly growing in the last few years in Europe. The level of knowledge and preparedness in this field is beginning to develop in a lawfully organized manner, for the identification and designation of critical infrastructure elements of national and European interest. Oil and gas production, refining, treatment, storage and transmission by pipelines facilities, are considered European critical infrastructure sectors, as per Annex I of the Council Directive 2008/114/EC of 8 December 2008 on the identification and designation of European critical infrastructures and the assessment of the need to improve their protection. Besides identifying European and national critical infrastructure elements, member states also need to perform a risk analysis for these infrastructure items, as stated in Annex II of the above mentioned Directive. In the field of risk assessment, there are a series of acknowledged and successfully used methods in the world, but not all hazard identification and assessment methods and techniques are suitable for a given site, situation, or type of hazard. As Theoharidou, M. et al. noted (Theoharidou, M., P. Kotzanikolaou, and D. Gritzalis 2009. Risk-Based Criticality Analysis. In Critical Infrastructure Protection III. Proceedings. Third Annual IFIP WG 11.10 International Conference on Critical Infrastructure Protection. Hanover, New Hampshire, USA, March 23-25, 2009: revised selected papers, edited by C. Palmer and S. Shenoi, 35-49. Berlin: Springer.), despite the wealth of knowledge already created, there is a need for simple, feasible, and standardized criticality analyses. The proposed systematic risk assessment methodology includes three basic steps: the first step (preliminary analysis) includes the identification of hazards (including possible natural hazards) for each installation/section within a given site, followed by a criterial analysis and then a detailed analysis step

  17. Handling Interdependencies in Climate Change Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard J. Dawson

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Typically, a climate change risk assessment focuses on individual sectors or hazards. However, interdependencies between climate risks manifest themselves via functional, physical, geographical, economic, policy and social mechanisms. These can occur over a range of spatial or temporal scales and with different strengths of coupling. Three case studies are used to demonstrate how interdependencies can significantly alter the nature and magnitude of risk, and, consequently, investment priorities for adaptation. The three examples explore interdependencies that arise from (1 climate loading dependence; (2 mediation of two climate impacts by physical processes operating over large spatial extents; and, (3 multiple risks that are influenced by shared climatic and socio-economic drivers. Drawing upon learning from these case studies, and other work, a framework for the analysis and consideration of interdependencies in climate change risk assessment has been developed. This is an iterative learning loop that involves defining the system, scoping interaction mechanisms, applying appropriate modelling tools, identifying vulnerabilities and opportunities, and assessing the performance of adaptation interventions.

  18. Hazard assessment and risk management of offshore production chemicals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schobben, H.P.M.; Scholten, M.C.T.; Vik, E.A.; Bakke, S.

    1994-01-01

    There is a clear need for harmonization of the regulations with regard to the use and discharge of drilling and production chemicals in the North Sea. Therefore the CHARM (Chemical Hazard Assessment and Risk Management) model was developed. Both government (of several countries) and industry (E and P and chemical suppliers) participated in the project. The CHARM model is discussed and accepted by OSPARCON. The CHARM model consists of several modules. The model starts with a prescreening on the basis of hazardous properties like persistency, accumulation potential and the appearance on black lists. The core of the model.consists of modules for hazard assessment and risk analysis. Hazard assessment covers a general environmental evaluation of a chemical on the basis of intrinsic properties of that chemical. Risk analysis covers a more specific evaluation of the environmental impact from the use of a production chemical, or a combination of chemicals, under actual conditions. In the risk management module the user is guided to reduce the total risk of all chemicals used on a platform by the definition of measures in the most cost-effective way. The model calculates the environmental impact for the marine environment. Thereto three parts are distinguished: pelagic, benthic and food chain. Both hazard assessment and risk analysis are based on a proportional comparison of an estimated PEC with an estimated NEC. The PEC is estimated from the use, release, dilution and fate of the chemical and the NEC is estimated from the available toxicity data of the chemicals

  19. Using Spatial Multi-Criteria Analysis and Ranking Tool (SMART in earthquake risk assessment: a case study of Delhi region, India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nishant Sinha

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available This article is aimed at earthquake hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment as a case study to demonstrate the applicability of Spatial Multi-Criteria Analysis and Ranking Tool (SMART, which is based on Saaty's multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA technique. The three specific study sites of Delhi were chosen for research as it corresponds to a typical patch of the urban environs, completely engrossed with residential, commercial and industrial units. The earthquake hazard affecting components are established in the form of geographic information system data-set layers including seismic zone, peak ground acceleration (PGA, soil characteristics, liquefaction potential, geological characteristics, land use, proximity to fault and epicentre. The physical vulnerability layers comprising building information, namely number of stories, year-built range, area, occupancy and construction type, derived from remote sensing imagery, were only considered for the current research. SMART was developed for earthquake risk assessment, and weights were derived both at component and its element level. Based on weighted overlay techniques, the earthquake hazard and vulnerability layers were created from which the risk maps were derived through multiplicative analysis. The developed risk maps may prove useful in decision-making process and formulating risk mitigation measures.

  20. The development and application of an integrated radiological risk assessment procedure using time-dependent probabilistic risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laurens, J.M.; Thompson, B.G.J.; Sumerling, T.J.

    1990-01-01

    During the past decade, the UKDoE has funded the development of an integrated assessment procedure centred around probabilistic risk analysis (p.r.a.) using Monte Carlo simulation techniques to account for the effects of parameter value uncertainty, including those associated with temporal changes in the environment over a postclosure period of about one million years. The influence of these changes can now be incorporated explicitly into the p.r.a. simulator VANDAL (Variability ANalysis of Disposal ALternatives) briefly described here. Although a full statistically converged time-dependent p.r.a. will not be demonstrated until the current Dry Run 3 trial is complete, illustrative examples are given showing the ability of VANDAL to represent spatially complex groundwater and repository systems evolving under the influence of climatic change. 18 refs., 10 figs., 1 tab

  1. Tools for assessing fall risk in the elderly: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Seong-Hi

    2018-01-01

    The prevention of falls among the elderly is arguably one of the most important public health issues in today's aging society. The aim of this study was to assess which tools best predict the risk of falls in the elderly. Electronic searches were performed using Medline, EMBASE, the Cochrane Library, CINAHL, etc., using the following keywords: "fall risk assessment", "elderly fall screening", and "elderly mobility scale". The QUADAS-2 was applied to assess the internal validity of the diagnostic studies. Selected studies were meta-analyzed with MetaDisc 1.4. A total of 33 studies were eligible out of the 2,321 studies retrieved from selected databases. Twenty-six assessment tools for fall risk were used in the selected articles, and they tended to vary based on the setting. The fall risk assessment tools currently used for the elderly did not show sufficiently high predictive validity for differentiating high and low fall risks. The Berg Balance scale and Mobility Interaction Fall chart showed stable and high specificity, while the Downton Fall Risk Index, Hendrich II Fall Risk Model, St. Thomas's Risk Assessment Tool in Falling elderly inpatients, Timed Up and Go test, and Tinetti Balance scale showed the opposite results. We concluded that rather than a single measure, two assessment tools used together would better evaluate the characteristics of falls by the elderly that can occur due to a multitude of factors and maximize the advantages of each for predicting the occurrence of falls.

  2. Method of assessing a lipid-related health risk based on ion mobility analysis of lipoproteins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benner, W. Henry; Krauss, Ronald M.; Blanche, Patricia J.

    2010-12-14

    A medical diagnostic method and instrumentation system for analyzing noncovalently bonded agglomerated biological particles is described. The method and system comprises: a method of preparation for the biological particles; an electrospray generator; an alpha particle radiation source; a differential mobility analyzer; a particle counter; and data acquisition and analysis means. The medical device is useful for the assessment of human diseases, such as cardiac disease risk and hyperlipidemia, by rapid quantitative analysis of lipoprotein fraction densities. Initially, purification procedures are described to reduce an initial blood sample to an analytical input to the instrument. The measured sizes from the analytical sample are correlated with densities, resulting in a spectrum of lipoprotein densities. The lipoprotein density distribution can then be used to characterize cardiac and other lipid-related health risks.

  3. Fire and Spillage Risk Assessment Pattern in Scientific Laboratories

    OpenAIRE

    Manouchehr Omidvari; N. Mansouri

    2015-01-01

        Material hazards are the most important risk in scientific laboratories. In risk assessment processing, the potential impact of assessor personal judgment is the most important issue. This study tried to develop a risk assessment pattern based on Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) logics and empirical data in scientific laboratories. The most important issues were high pressure reservoirs and hardware failure fuel. The other type of data about b...

  4. Analysis of dysphagia risk using the modified dysphagia risk assessment for the community-dwelling elderly

    OpenAIRE

    Byeon, Haewon

    2016-01-01

    [Purpose] The elderly are susceptible to dysphagia, and complications can be minimized if high-risk groups are screened in early stages and properly rehabilitated. This study provides basic material for the early detection and prevention of dysphagia by investigating the risks of dysphagia and related factors in community-dwelling elders. [Subjects and Methods] Participants included 325 community-dwelling elderly people aged 65 or older. The modified dysphagia risk assessment for the communit...

  5. Risk assessment basis for WWER-440 spent nuclear fuel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lascek, M.; Necas, V.; Darilek, P.

    2000-01-01

    The most problematic part of nuclear fuel cycle is its back end. Various high level waste management are available or under development (final disposal of spent assemblies in deep repository, reprocessing, partitioning, transmutation,...). Application of any method is connected with production of characteristic high level waste (amount, radio-toxicity, form,...) as well as various risk level for the environment and mankind. Strategy selection should be based on risk analysis also. The paper deals with assessment of risk, that is associated with WWER-440 spent fuel inventory. In order to evaluate the risk, the accumulated amount of the radioactive inventory is calculated and the decay of the long-lived radionuclides is computed by ORIGEN code. Analysis is oriented on calculation of hazard indexes for assessing the relative hazards of actinides, toxic and long-lived radionuclides. (Authors)

  6. Human health risk assessment with spatial analysis: Study of a population chronically exposed to arsenic through drinking water from Argentina

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Navoni, J.A.; De Pietri, D.; Olmos, V.; Gimenez, C.; Bovi Mitre, G.

    2014-01-01

    Arsenic (As) is a ubiquitous element widely distributed in the environment. This metalloid has proven carcinogenic action in man. The aim of this work was to assess the health risk related to As exposure through drinking water in an Argentinean population, applying spatial analytical techniques in addition to conventional approaches. The study involved 650 inhabitants from Chaco and Santiago del Estero provinces. Arsenic in drinking water (Asw) and urine (UAs) was measured by hydride generation atomic absorption spectrophotometry. Average daily dose (ADD), hazard quotient (HQ), and carcinogenic risk (CR) were estimated, geo-referenced and integrated with demographical data by a health composite index (HI) applying geographic information system (GIS) analysis. Asw covered a wide range of concentration: from non-detectable (ND) to 2000 μg/L. More than 90% of the population was exposed to As, with UAs levels above the intervention level of 100 μg/g creatinine. GIS analysis described an expected level of exposure lower than the observed, indicating possible additional source/s of exposure to inorganic arsenic. In 68% of the locations, the population had a HQ greater than 1, and the CR ranged between 5·10 −5 and 2,1·10 −2 . An environmental exposure area through ADD geo-referencing defined a baseline scenario for space-time risk assessment. The time of residence, the demographic density and the potential health considered outcomes helped characterize the health risk in the region. The geospatial analysis contributed to delimitate and analyze the change tendencies of risk in the region, broadening the scopes of the results for a decision-making process. - Highlights: • Risk assessment (RA) to As using deterministic procedures • Integration of RA through deterministic procedures with GIS tools • Analysis of the time-space behavior of the risk area • Analysis of As effect outcomes through HI • Broaden the scopes of deterministic approaches

  7. Human health risk assessment with spatial analysis: Study of a population chronically exposed to arsenic through drinking water from Argentina

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Navoni, J.A., E-mail: jnavoni@ffyb.uba.ar [Cátedra de Toxicología y Química Legal, Facultad de Farmacia y Bioquímica, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Junín 956, C1113AAD Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires (Argentina); De Pietri, D., E-mail: depietrid@hotmail.com [Dirección Nacional de Determinantes de la Salud e Investigación, Ministerio de Salud de la Nación, Av. 9 de Julio 1925, C1073ABA Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires (Argentina); Olmos, V. [Cátedra de Toxicología y Química Legal, Facultad de Farmacia y Bioquímica, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Junín 956, C1113AAD Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires (Argentina); Gimenez, C. [Cátedra Química Analítica I, Universidad Nacional del Chaco Austral. Cmte., Fernández 755 (3700), Pres. Roque Sáenz Peña, Chaco (Argentina); Bovi Mitre, G. [Grupo INQA (Investigación Química Aplicada) Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias, Universidad Nacional de Jujuy, Alberdi 47, piso 1, San Salvador de Jujuy, Jujuy CP 4600 (Argentina); and others

    2014-11-15

    Arsenic (As) is a ubiquitous element widely distributed in the environment. This metalloid has proven carcinogenic action in man. The aim of this work was to assess the health risk related to As exposure through drinking water in an Argentinean population, applying spatial analytical techniques in addition to conventional approaches. The study involved 650 inhabitants from Chaco and Santiago del Estero provinces. Arsenic in drinking water (Asw) and urine (UAs) was measured by hydride generation atomic absorption spectrophotometry. Average daily dose (ADD), hazard quotient (HQ), and carcinogenic risk (CR) were estimated, geo-referenced and integrated with demographical data by a health composite index (HI) applying geographic information system (GIS) analysis. Asw covered a wide range of concentration: from non-detectable (ND) to 2000 μg/L. More than 90% of the population was exposed to As, with UAs levels above the intervention level of 100 μg/g creatinine. GIS analysis described an expected level of exposure lower than the observed, indicating possible additional source/s of exposure to inorganic arsenic. In 68% of the locations, the population had a HQ greater than 1, and the CR ranged between 5·10{sup −5} and 2,1·10{sup −2}. An environmental exposure area through ADD geo-referencing defined a baseline scenario for space-time risk assessment. The time of residence, the demographic density and the potential health considered outcomes helped characterize the health risk in the region. The geospatial analysis contributed to delimitate and analyze the change tendencies of risk in the region, broadening the scopes of the results for a decision-making process. - Highlights: • Risk assessment (RA) to As using deterministic procedures • Integration of RA through deterministic procedures with GIS tools • Analysis of the time-space behavior of the risk area • Analysis of As effect outcomes through HI • Broaden the scopes of deterministic approaches.

  8. Solution Monitoring Evaluated by Proliferation Risk Assessment and Fuzzy Optimization Analysis for Safeguards in a Reprocessing Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mitsutoshi Suzuki

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Solution monitoring (SM has been used in a nuclear reprocessing plant as an additional measure to provide assurance that the plant is operated as declared. The inline volume and density monitoring equipment with dip tubes is important for safety and safeguards purposes and is a typical example of safeguards by design (SBD. Recently safety, safeguards, and security by design (3SBD are proposed to promote an efficient and effective generation of nuclear energy. In 3SBD, proliferation risk assessment has the potential to consider likelihood of the incidence and proliferation risk in safeguards. In this study, risk assessment methodologies for safeguards and security are discussed and several mathematical methods are presented to investigate risk notion applied to intentional acts of facility misuse in an uncertainty environment. Proliferation risk analysis with the Markov model, deterrence effect with the game model, and SBD with fuzzy optimization are shown in feasibility studies to investigate the potential application of the risk and uncertainty analyses in safeguards. It is demonstrated that the SM is an effective measurement system using risk-informed and cost-effective SBD, even though there are inherent difficulties related to the possibility of operator’s falsification.

  9. Competing risk theory and radiation risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Groer, P.G.

    1980-01-01

    New statistical procedures are applied to estimate cumulative distribution functions (c.d.f.), force of mortality, and latent period for radiation-induced malignancies. It is demonstrated that correction for competing risks influences the shape of dose response curves, estimates of the latent period, and of the risk from ionizing radiations. The equivalence of the following concepts is demonstrated: force of mortality, hazard rate, and age or time specific incidence. This equivalence makes it possible to use procedures from reliability analysis and demography for radiation risk assessment. Two methods used by reliability analysts - hazard plotting and total time on test plots - are discussed in some detail and applied to characterize the hazard rate in radiation carcinogenesis. C.d.f.'s with increasing, decreasing, or constant hazard rate have different shapes and are shown to yield different dose-response curves for continuous irradiation. Absolute risk is shown to be a sound estimator only if the force of mortality is constant for the exposed and the control group. Dose-response relationships that use the absolute risk as a measure for the effect turn out to be special cases of dose-response relationships that measure the effect with cumulative incidence. (H.K.)

  10. Phase angle assessment by bioelectrical impedance analysis and its predictive value for malnutrition risk in hospitalized geriatric patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varan, Hacer Dogan; Bolayir, Basak; Kara, Ozgur; Arik, Gunes; Kizilarslanoglu, Muhammet Cemal; Kilic, Mustafa Kemal; Sumer, Fatih; Kuyumcu, Mehmet Emin; Yesil, Yusuf; Yavuz, Burcu Balam; Halil, Meltem; Cankurtaran, Mustafa

    2016-12-01

    Phase angle (PhA) value determined by bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) is an indicator of cell membrane damage and body cell mass. Recent studies have shown that low PhA value is associated with increased nutritional risk in various group of patients. However, there have been only a few studies performed globally assessing the relationship between nutritional risk and PhA in hospitalized geriatric patients. The aim of the study is to evaluate the predictive value of the PhA for malnutrition risk in hospitalized geriatric patients. One hundred and twenty-two hospitalized geriatric patients were included in this cross-sectional study. Comprehensive geriatric assessment tests and BIA measurements were performed within the first 48 h after admission. Nutritional risk state of the patients was determined with NRS-2002. Phase angle values of the patients with malnutrition risk were compared with the patients that did not have the same risk. The independent variables for predicting malnutrition risk were determined. SPSS version 15 was utilized for the statistical analyzes. The patients with malnutrition risk had significantly lower phase angle values than the patients without malnutrition risk (p = 0.003). ROC curve analysis suggested that the optimum PhA cut-off point for malnutrition risk was 4.7° with 79.6 % sensitivity, 64.6 % specificity, 73.9 % positive predictive value, and 73.9 % negative predictive value. BMI, prealbumin, PhA, and Mini Mental State Examination Test scores were the independent variables for predicting malnutrition risk. PhA can be a useful, independent indicator for predicting malnutrition risk in hospitalized geriatric patients.

  11. A New Approach to Feasibility Risk Assessment within Transport Infrastructure Appraisal

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang

    2013-01-01

    This paper introduces a new approach of applying feasibility risk assessment within transport project infrastructure appraisal. The procedure is based upon quantitative risk analysis and Monte Carlo simulation in combination with conventional cost-benefit analysis converting deterministic benefit...... are, hereby, often basing their decisions on wrongful material. The presented approach to transport infrastructure appraisal is to include uncertainties and risks in the evaluation. Correspondingly, the handling of uncertainties and risk within transport project assessment are often made up...... by sensitivity tests producing deterministically based output values. Research has proven that traditional sensitivity analysis seldomnly captures the total variability especially as concerns the costs and demands estimated in the pre-stage of the evaluation. Therefore, this paper introduces an approach...

  12. Risk assessment of radiation carcinogenesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kai, Michiaki

    2012-01-01

    This commentary describes the radiation cancer risk assessed by international organizations other than ICRP, assessed for radon and for internal exposure, in the series from the aspect of radiation protection of explaining the assessments done until ICRP Pub. 103. Statistic significant increase of cancer formation is proved at higher doses than 100-200 mSv. At lower doses, with use of mathematical model, United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) reported the death probability due to the excess lifetime risk (ELR) at 100 mSv of 0.36-0.77% for solid tumors and 0.03-0.05% for leukemia, and NRC in US, the risk of exposure-induced prevalence and death (REID) per 100 thousands persons of 800 (male)/1,310 (female) and 410/610, respectively. Both are essentially based on findings in A-bomb survivors. The assessment for Rn is described here not on dose. UK and US analyses of pooled raw data in case control studies revealed the significant increase of lung cancer formation at as low level as 100 Bq Rn/m3. Their analyses also showed the significance of smoking, which had been realized as a confounding factor in risk analysis of Rn for uranium miners. The death probability until the age of 85 y was found to be 1.2 x 10 -4 in non-smokers and 24 x 10 -4 in smokers/ Working Level Month (WLM). Increased thyroid cancer incidence has been known in Chernobyl Accident, which is realized as a result of internal exposure of radioiodine; however, the relationship between the internal dose to thyroid and its cancer prevalence resembles that in the case of external exposure. There is no certain evidence against the concept that risk of internal exposure is similar to and/or lower than, the external one although assessment of the internal exposure risk accompanies uncertainty depending on the used model and ingested dose. International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) recommendations hitherto have been important and precious despite

  13. Can we (actually) assess global risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano

    2013-04-01

    The evaluation of the dynamic interactions of the different components of global risk (e.g. hazard, exposure, vulnerability or resilience) is one of the main challenges in risk assessment and management. In state-of-the-art approaches for the analysis of risk, natural and socio-economic systems are typically treated separately by using different methods. In flood risk studies, for instance, physical scientists typically focus on the study of the probability of flooding (i.e. hazard), while social scientists mainly examine the exposure, vulnerability or resilience to flooding. However, these different components are deeply interconnected. Changes in flood hazard might trigger changes in vulnerability, and vice versa. A typical example of these interactions is the so-called "levee effect", whereby heightening levees to reduce the probability of flooding often leads to increase the potential adverse consequences of flooding as people often perceive that flood risk was completely eliminated once the levee was raised. These interconnections between the different components of risk remain largely unexplored and poorly understood. This lack of knowledge is of serious concern as it limits our ability to plan appropriate risk prevention measures. To design flood control structures, for example, state-of-the-art models can indeed provide quantitative assessments of the corresponding risk reduction associated to the lower probability of flooding. Nevertheless, current methods cannot estimate how, and to what extent, such a reduction might trigger a future increase of the potential adverse consequences of flooding (the aforementioned "levee effect"). Neither can they evaluate how the latter might (in turn) lead to the requirement of additional flood control structures. Thus, while many progresses have been made in the static assessment of flood risk, more inter-disciplinary research is required for the development of methods for dynamic risk assessment, which is very much

  14. Advancing Risk Assessment through the Application of Systems Toxicology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauer, John Michael; Kleensang, André; Peitsch, Manuel C.; Hayes, A. Wallace

    2016-01-01

    Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the probability of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from human activities. Mechanistic approaches to risk assessment have been generally referred to as systems toxicology. Systems toxicology makes use of advanced analytical and computational tools to integrate classical toxicology and quantitative analysis of large networks of molecular and functional changes occurring across multiple levels of biological organization. Three presentations including two case studies involving both in vitro and in vivo approaches described the current state of systems toxicology and the potential for its future application in chemical risk assessment. PMID:26977253

  15. Computerized analysis of mammographic parenchymal patterns for assessing breast cancer risk: Effect of ROI size and location

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Hui; Giger, Maryellen L.; Huo Zhimin; Olopade, Olufunmilayo I.; Lan Li; Weber, Barbara L.; Bonta, Ioana

    2004-01-01

    The long-term goal of our research is to develop computerized radiographic markers for assessing breast density and parenchymal patterns that may be used together with clinical measures for determining the risk of breast cancer and assessing the response to preventive treatment. In our earlier studies, we found that women at high risk tended to have dense breasts with mammographic patterns that were coarse and low in contrast. With our method, computerized texture analysis is performed on a region of interest (ROI) within the mammographic image. In our current study, we investigate the effect of ROI size and ROI location on the computerized texture features obtained from 90 subjects (30 BRCA1/BRCA2 gene-mutation carriers and 60 age-matched women deemed to be at low risk for breast cancer). Mammograms were digitized at 0.1 mm pixel size and various ROI sizes were extracted from different breast regions in the craniocaudal (CC) view. Seventeen features, which characterize the density and texture of the parenchymal patterns, were extracted from the ROIs on these digitized mammograms. Stepwise feature selection and linear discriminant analysis were applied to identify features that differentiate between the low-risk women and the BRCA1/BRCA2 gene-mutation carriers. ROC analysis was used to assess the performance of the features in the task of distinguishing between these two groups. Our results show that there was a statistically significant decrease in the performance of the computerized texture features, as the ROI location was varied from the central region behind the nipple. However, we failed to show a statistically significant decrease in the performance of the computerized texture features with decreasing ROI size for the range studied

  16. Uncertainty characterization approaches for risk assessment of DBPs in drinking water: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowdhury, Shakhawat; Champagne, Pascale; McLellan, P James

    2009-04-01

    The management of risk from disinfection by-products (DBPs) in drinking water has become a critical issue over the last three decades. The areas of concern for risk management studies include (i) human health risk from DBPs, (ii) disinfection performance, (iii) technical feasibility (maintenance, management and operation) of treatment and disinfection approaches, and (iv) cost. Human health risk assessment is typically considered to be the most important phase of the risk-based decision-making or risk management studies. The factors associated with health risk assessment and other attributes are generally prone to considerable uncertainty. Probabilistic and non-probabilistic approaches have both been employed to characterize uncertainties associated with risk assessment. The probabilistic approaches include sampling-based methods (typically Monte Carlo simulation and stratified sampling) and asymptotic (approximate) reliability analysis (first- and second-order reliability methods). Non-probabilistic approaches include interval analysis, fuzzy set theory and possibility theory. However, it is generally accepted that no single method is suitable for the entire spectrum of problems encountered in uncertainty analyses for risk assessment. Each method has its own set of advantages and limitations. In this paper, the feasibility and limitations of different uncertainty analysis approaches are outlined for risk management studies of drinking water supply systems. The findings assist in the selection of suitable approaches for uncertainty analysis in risk management studies associated with DBPs and human health risk.

  17. Inorganic Contaminants Associated with the Extraction of Unconventional Gas.Initial Analysis and Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu, L.; Hurtado, A.; Recreo, F.; Eguilior, S.

    2015-01-01

    The latest technological developments in horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing are driving a commercial scale extraction of unconventional fossil fuels in various regions of the world. Europe's position in relation to the exploitation of unconventional fossil fuels is this has to be made under a paradigm of coherence between the technical and economic-financial aspects and environments and public trust, which are essential and which will eventually would enable the viability of exploiting these resources.This requires, by those decision makers, both industry and regulators, a comprehensive management of the risks associated with these exploitations, which implies the need to develop tools of analysis and assessment to environmental impact and risk. The exploitation of unconventional hydrocarbons in formations of shale requires the creation of a network of artificial fractures to connect with production well Horizontal wells are drilled for this purpose and go on for several km into the shale formation. During drilling, a mixture of oil, gas and formation water is pumped to the surface. The water is separated from oil and gas in tanks or pools. The flowback and produced water contains different kinds of chemicals in varying concentrations: salt, oil and other organic compounds, suspended solids, bacteria, naturally occurring radioactive elements (NORM), and any element injected with the fracturing fluid. The concentration of these elements in the water may be increased due to the treatments suffered by flowback and produced water for disposal. Due to the large variability of contaminants in the flowback and produced water and the potentially large volumes involved, the determination of the its composition is essential for proper management of them and to prevent health, safety and environmental risks. This report covers the risk analysis of an unconventional gas extraction project, the initial assessment of the risks associated with the use and management of

  18. Bayesian Networks for enterprise risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonafede, C. E.; Giudici, P.

    2007-08-01

    According to different typologies of activity and priority, risks can assume diverse meanings and it can be assessed in different ways. Risk, in general, is measured in terms of a probability combination of an event (frequency) and its consequence (impact). To estimate the frequency and the impact (severity) historical data or expert opinions (either qualitative or quantitative data) are used. Moreover, qualitative data must be converted in numerical values or bounds to be used in the model. In the case of enterprise risk assessment the considered risks are, for instance, strategic, operational, legal and of image, which many times are difficult to be quantified. So in most cases only expert data, gathered by scorecard approaches, are available for risk analysis. The Bayesian Networks (BNs) are a useful tool to integrate different information and in particular to study the risk's joint distribution by using data collected from experts. In this paper we want to show a possible approach for building a BN in the particular case in which only prior probabilities of node states and marginal correlations between nodes are available, and when the variables have only two states.

  19. Information needs for risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DeRosa, C.T.; Choudhury, H.; Schoeny, R.S.

    1990-12-31

    Risk assessment can be thought of as a conceptual approach to bridge the gap between the available data and the ultimate goal of characterizing the risk or hazard associated with a particular environmental problem. To lend consistency to and to promote quality in the process, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Carcinogenicity, Developmental Toxicity, Germ Cell Mutagenicity and Exposure Assessment, and Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures. The guidelines provide a framework for organizing the information, evaluating data, and for carrying out the risk assessment in a scientifically plausible manner. In the absence of sufficient scientific information or when abundant data are available, the guidelines provide alternative methodologies that can be employed in the risk assessment. 4 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  20. Probabilistic risk assessment as an aid to risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garrick, B.J.

    1982-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessments are providing important insights into nuclear power plant safety. Their value is two-fold: first as a means of quantifying nuclear plant risk including contributors to risk, and second as an aid to risk management. A risk assessment provides an analytical plant model that can be the basis for performing meaningful decision analyses for controlling safety. It is the aspect of quantitative risk management that makes probabilistic risk assessment an important technical discipline of the future

  1. Assessment of accident risks in the CRBRP. Volume 2. Appendices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1977-03-01

    Appendices to Volume I include core-related accident-sequence definition, CRBRP risk-assessment sequence-probability determinations, failure-probability data, accident scenario evaluation, radioactive material release analysis, ex-core accident analysis, safety philosophy and design features, calculation of reactor accident consequences, sensitivity study, and risk from fires.

  2. Actual problems of environmental factors risk assessment on human health and ways to improve it

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y.A. Rakhmanin

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The article provides an analysis of global trends and new areas of health risk assessment and analysis methodology caused by exposure to chemicals, environmental pollutants, and the contemporary issues of national assessment methodology. Most details are considered: risk assessment evidence base, modern methods and problems of carcinogenic risk assessment, hygienic regulation based on risk assessment, the economic aspects of the methodology. Particular attention is paid to reasons of recent years perceived gaps in the Russian methodological basis of the best foreign samples. The urgent measures to improve the national risk assessment methodology are proposed, the main of which are: legislative consolidation of the basic concepts of risk assessment, a further update of the methodology and the practice of hygienic regulation on the basis of risk assessment, improving the valuation of damage to human health, the tightening of the requirements to the developed regulatory guidance documents on risk assessment, as well as to the training and retraining of personnel in the risk assessment.

  3. EFFICIENT QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT OF JUMP PROCESSES: IMPLICATIONS FOR FOOD SAFETY

    OpenAIRE

    Nganje, William E.

    1999-01-01

    This paper develops a dynamic framework for efficient quantitative risk assessment from the simplest general risk, combining three parameters (contamination, exposure, and dose response) in a Kataoka safety-first model and a Poisson probability representing the uncertainty effect or jump processes associated with food safety. Analysis indicates that incorporating jump processes in food safety risk assessment provides more efficient cost/risk tradeoffs. Nevertheless, increased margin of safety...

  4. Strategic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derleth, Jason; Lobia, Marcus

    2009-01-01

    This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.

  5. Overview of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rimington, J.D.

    1992-01-01

    The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits

  6. Overview of risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rimington, J D [Health and Safety Executive (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits.

  7. Risk monitor - a tool for operational safety assessment risk monitor - user's manual

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hari Prasad, M.; Vinod, Gopika; Saraf, R.K.; Ghosh, A.K.

    2006-06-01

    Probabilistic Safety Assessment has become a key tool as on today to identify and understand Nuclear Power Plant vulnerabilities. As a result of the availability of these PSA studies, there is a desire to use them to enhance plant safety and to operate the nuclear stations in the most efficient manner. Risk Monitor is a PC based tool, which computes the real time safety level and assists plant personnel to manage day-to-day activities. Risk Monitor is a PC based user friendly software tool used for modification and re-analysis of a nuclear Power plant. Operation of Risk Monitor is based on PSA methods for assisting in day to day applications. Risk Monitoring programs can assess the risk profile and are used to optimize the operation of Nuclear Power Plants with respect to a minimum risk level over the operating time. This report presents the background activities of Risk Monitor, its application areas and the step by step procedure for the user.to interact with the software. This software can be used with the PSA model of any Nuclear Power Plant. (author)

  8. [Urban ecological risk assessment: a review].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Mei-E; Chen, Wei-Ping; Peng, Chi

    2014-03-01

    With the development of urbanization and the degradation of urban living environment, urban ecological risks caused by urbanization have attracted more and more attentions. Based on urban ecology principles and ecological risk assessment frameworks, contents of urban ecological risk assessment were reviewed in terms of driven forces, risk resources, risk receptors, endpoints and integrated approaches for risk assessment. It was suggested that types and degrees of urban economical and social activities were the driven forces for urban ecological risks. Ecological functional components at different levels in urban ecosystems as well as the urban system as a whole were the risk receptors. Assessment endpoints involved in changes of urban ecological structures, processes, functional components and the integrity of characteristic and function. Social-ecological models should be the major approaches for urban ecological risk assessment. Trends for urban ecological risk assessment study should focus on setting a definite protection target and criteria corresponding to assessment endpoints, establishing a multiple-parameter assessment system and integrative assessment approaches.

  9. Risk assessment for SAGD well blowouts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Worth, D.; Alhanati, F.; Lastiwka, M. [C-FER Technologies, Edmonton, AB (Canada); Crepin, S. [Petrocedeno, Caracas (Venezuela)

    2008-10-15

    This paper discussed a steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) pilot project currently being conducted in Venezuela's Orinoco Belt. A risk assessment was conducted as part of the pilot program in order to evaluate the use of single barrier completions in conjunction with a blowout response plan. The study considered 3 options: (1) an isolated double barrier completion with a downhole safety valve (DHSV) in the production tubing string and a packer in the production casing annulus; (2) a partially isolated completion with no DHSV and a packer in the production casing annulus; and (3) an open single barrier completion with no additional downhole barriers. A reservoir model was used to assess the blowout flowing potential of SAGD well pairs. The probability of a blowout was estimated using fault tree analysis techniques. Risk was determined for various blowout scenarios, including blowouts during normal and workover operations, as well as blowouts through various flow paths. Total risk for each completion scenario was also determined at 3 different time periods within the production life of the well pair. The possible consequences of a blowout were assessed using quantitative consequence models. Results of the study showed that environmental and economic risks were much higher for the open completion technique. Higher risks were also associated with the earlier life of the completion strings. 20 refs., 3 tabs., 19 figs.

  10. [Forensic assessment of violence risk].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L

    2014-03-01

    Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

  11. IT Confidentiality Risk Assessment for an Architecture-Based Approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Morali, A.; Zambon, Emmanuele; Etalle, Sandro; Overbeek, Paul

    2008-01-01

    Information systems require awareness of risks and a good understanding of vulnerabilities and their exploitations. In this paper, we propose a novel approach for the systematic assessment and analysis of confidentiality risks caused by disclosure of operational and functional information. The

  12. Health risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in the source water and drinking water of China: Quantitative analysis based on published monitoring data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Bing; Zhang, Yan; Zhang, Xu-Xiang; Cheng, Shu-Pei

    2011-12-01

    A carcinogenic risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in source water and drinking water of China was conducted using probabilistic techniques from a national perspective. The published monitoring data of PAHs were gathered and converted into BaP equivalent (BaP(eq)) concentrations. Based on the transformed data, comprehensive risk assessment was performed by considering different age groups and exposure pathways. Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analysis were applied to quantify uncertainties of risk estimation. The risk analysis indicated that, the risk values for children and teens were lower than the accepted value (1.00E-05), indicating no significant carcinogenic risk. The probability of risk values above 1.00E-05 was 5.8% and 6.7% for adults and lifetime groups, respectively. Overall, carcinogenic risks of PAHs in source water and drinking water of China were mostly accepted. However, specific regions, such as Yellow river of Lanzhou reach and Qiantang river should be paid more attention. Notwithstanding the uncertainties inherent in the risk assessment, this study is the first attempt to provide information on carcinogenic risk of PAHs in source water and drinking water of China, and might be useful for potential strategies of carcinogenic risk management and reduction. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Rodent sperm analysis in field-based ecological risk assessment: pilot study at Ravenna army ammunition plant, Ravenna, Ohio

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tannenbaum, L.V.; Bazar, M.; Hawkins, M.S.; Cornaby, B.W.; Ferguson, E.A.; Chantelle Carroll, L.; Ryan, P.F.

    2003-01-01

    Rodent sperm analysis is a visable method for use in field studies of risk at contaminated sites. - Ecological risk assessment (ERA) guidance recommends that field-truthing efforts proceed when modeled hazard quotients (HQs) suggest that toxicological effects are occurring to site receptors. To date, no field methods have been proposed by the regulatory community that can lead to definitive determinations of acceptable or unacceptable risk for birds and mammals, the two terrestrial classes of receptors that are commonly assessed using the HQ method. This paper describes rodent sperm analysis (RSA) as a viable method to be applied in the field at sites with historical contamination. RSA is capable of detecting biological differences that bear on reproduction, a highly regarded toxicological endpoint of concern in USEPA Superfund-type ERAs. The results of RSA's first application at a study site are reported and discussed. The paper also provides the rationale for RSA's efficacy in the context of Superfund and other environmental cleanup programs, where limited time and money are available to determine and evaluate the field condition

  14. Systems Toxicology: From Basic Research to Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Systems Toxicology is the integration of classical toxicology with quantitative analysis of large networks of molecular and functional changes occurring across multiple levels of biological organization. Society demands increasingly close scrutiny of the potential health risks associated with exposure to chemicals present in our everyday life, leading to an increasing need for more predictive and accurate risk-assessment approaches. Developing such approaches requires a detailed mechanistic understanding of the ways in which xenobiotic substances perturb biological systems and lead to adverse outcomes. Thus, Systems Toxicology approaches offer modern strategies for gaining such mechanistic knowledge by combining advanced analytical and computational tools. Furthermore, Systems Toxicology is a means for the identification and application of biomarkers for improved safety assessments. In Systems Toxicology, quantitative systems-wide molecular changes in the context of an exposure are measured, and a causal chain of molecular events linking exposures with adverse outcomes (i.e., functional and apical end points) is deciphered. Mathematical models are then built to describe these processes in a quantitative manner. The integrated data analysis leads to the identification of how biological networks are perturbed by the exposure and enables the development of predictive mathematical models of toxicological processes. This perspective integrates current knowledge regarding bioanalytical approaches, computational analysis, and the potential for improved risk assessment. PMID:24446777

  15. [Risk Assessment and Risk Management of Chemicals in China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Tie-yu; Zhou, Yun-qiao; Li, Qi-feng; Lü, Yong-long

    2016-02-15

    Risk assessment and risk management have been increasingly approved as an effective approach for appropriate disposal and scientific management of chemicals. This study systematically analyzed the risk assessment methods of chemicals from three aspects including health risk, ecological risk and regional risk. Based on the current situation of classification and management towards chemicals in China, a specific framework of risk management on chemicals was proposed by selecting target chemicals, predominant industries and related stakeholders as the objects. The results of the present study will provide scientific support for improving risk assessment and reasonable management of chemicals in China.

  16. Presentation and analysis of a general algorithm for risk-assessment on secondary poisoning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Romijn CAFM; Luttik R; van de Meent D; Slooff W; Canton JH

    1991-01-01

    The study in this report was carried out in the frame of the project "Evaluation system for new chemical substances". The aim of the study was to present a general algorithm for risk-assessment on secondary poisoning of birds and mammals. Risk-assessment on secondary poisoning can be an

  17. Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1983-01-01

    The report is in sections, entitled: preface; summary and conclusions; introduction (historical and organizational); estimating engineering risks (techniques of risk estimation and forms of expression of risk); laboratory experiments for estimation of biological risks; estimation of risk from observations on man (travel, medical procedures; occupations; sport); the perception of risks; (as an example of attitudes towards a single hazard, studies of nuclear power are considered among other topics in this section); risk management (estimation; perception; acceptability, analysis of risk, costs and benefits; safety standards; decision-making process; possible guidelines). (U.K.)

  18. How effective are risk assessments/measures for predicting future aggressive behaviour in adults with intellectual disabilities (ID): A systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lofthouse, Rachael; Golding, Laura; Totsika, Vasiliki; Hastings, Richard; Lindsay, William

    2017-12-01

    Risk assessments assist professionals in the identification and management of risk of aggression. The present study aimed to systematically review evidence on the efficacy of assessments for managing the risk of physical aggression in adults with intellectual disabilities (ID). A literature search was conducted using the databases PsycINFO, EMBASE, MEDLINE, Web of Science, and Google Scholar. Electronic and hand searches identified 14 studies that met the inclusion criteria. Standardised mean difference effect sizes Area Under Curve (AUC) were calculated for studies. Random effects subgroup analysis was used to compare different types of risk measures (Actuarial, Structured Professional Judgment and dynamic), and prospective vs. catch-up longitudinal study designs. Overall, evidence of predictive validity was found for risk measures with ID populations: (AUC)=0.724, 95% CI [0.681, 0.768]. There was no variation in the performance of different types of risk measures, or different study design. Risk assessment measures predict the likelihood of aggression in ID population and are comparable to those in mainstream populations. Further meta-analysis is necessary when risk measures are more established in this population. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Risk, surprises and black swans fundamental ideas and concepts in risk assessment and risk management

    CERN Document Server

    Aven, Terje

    2014-01-01

    Risk, Surprises and Black Swans provides an in depth analysis of the risk concept with a focus on the critical link to knowledge; and the lack of knowledge, that risk and probability judgements are based on.Based on technical scientific research, this book presents a new perspective to help you understand how to assess and manage surprising, extreme events, known as 'Black Swans'. This approach looks beyond the traditional probability-based principles to offer a broader insight into the important aspects of uncertain events and in doing so explores the ways to manage them.

  20. The meaning of results. Understanding comparative risk assessments of energy options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilson, R.; Holland, M.; Rabl, A.; Dreicer, M.

    1999-01-01

    Results of comparative risk assessments can be used for a range of potential applications: choice and balance of technologies for strategic energy planning; choice of a new power plant; optimal dispatching of existing plants; optimization of regulations (emission limits, environmental quality objectives such as air quality limits, tradable permits, pollution taxes); accounting for climate change. When reporting the results of comparative risk assessment, a number of factors should be clear: precise nature of the energy system being assessed; what has been excluded from the analysis; sources of data used in assessment; assumptions that have been made; and what the analysts and other experts have regarded as the key sensitivities in the analysis. If all factors are addressed, the results of comparative risk assessment will prove to be an essential resource for making the best decisions about energy options and policies

  1. WE-B-BRC-02: Risk Analysis and Incident Learning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fraass, B.

    2016-01-01

    Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. We therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation oncology

  2. WE-B-BRC-02: Risk Analysis and Incident Learning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fraass, B. [Cedars Sinai Medical Center (United States)

    2016-06-15

    Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. We therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation oncology

  3. Development of a methodology for post closure radiological risk analysis of underground waste repositories. Illustrative assessment of the Harwell site. V.1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gralewski, Z.A.; Kane, P.; Nicholls, D.B.

    1987-06-01

    A probabilistic risk analysis (pra) is demonstrated for a number of ground water mediated release scenarios at the Harwell Site for a hypothetical repository at a depth of about 150 metres. This is the second stage of development of an overall risk assessment methodology. A procedure for carrying out multi-scenario assessment using available probabilistic risk assessment (pra) models is presented and a general methodology for combining risk contributions is outlined. Appropriate levels of model complexity in pra are discussed. Modelling requirements for the treatment of multiple simultaneous pathways and of site evolution are outlined. Further developments of pra systems are required to increase the realism of both the models and their mode of application, and hence to improve estimates of risk. (author)

  4. Methodology for flood risk analysis for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wagner, D.P.; Casada, M.L.; Fussell, J.B.

    1984-01-01

    The methodology for flood risk analysis described here addresses the effects of a flood on nuclear power plant safety systems. Combining the results of this method with the probability of a flood allows the effects of flooding to be included in a probabilistic risk assessment. The five-step methodology includes accident sequence screening to focus the detailed analysis efforts on the accident sequences that are significantly affected by a flood event. The quantitative results include the flood's contribution to system failure probability, accident sequence occurrence frequency and consequence category occurrence frequency. The analysis can be added to existing risk assessments without a significant loss in efficiency. The results of two example applications show the usefulness of the methodology. Both examples rely on the Reactor Safety Study for the required risk assessment inputs and present changes in the Reactor Safety Study results as a function of flood probability

  5. Vulnerability and Risk Analysis Program: Overview of Assessment Methodology

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2001-01-01

    .... Over the last three years, a team of national laboratory experts, working in partnership with the energy industry, has successfully applied the methodology as part of OCIP's Vulnerability and Risk Analysis Program (VRAP...

  6. Risk assessment approach for Rokkasho reprocessing plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ootou, Y.; Tamauchi, Y.; Hayashi, Y.; Takebe, K.; Miyata, T.

    2006-01-01

    for various types of equipment and piping and for operations performed by operators, and was obtained through sensitivity analysis, such as the influence of change in the maintenance periods of the occurrence frequency. This information might be of use for operation management. On the other hand, in order to have grasp of the risk profile at a reprocessing plant and in order for us to make good use of the risk information, it is also necessary to conduct risk assessments for incidents other than major accidents. Since it is appropriate to use a Graded Approach to assess the risks of such a large number of incidents effectively and efficiently, a simplified method, called ''improved risk index method'' was developed. It based on the Risk Index Method recommended by U.S. NRC. The Risk Index Method is simple and is appropriate for fuel cycle facilities where a wide variety of accidents may occur, but it is characterized by the fact that it requires engineering judgments by analysts when assessing the occurrence frequency, and the common components between the safety measures (the subordinacy) are difficult to clarify. In order to solve the problems inherent in the Risk Index Method, quantification, flexibility and traceability have been improved while maintaining its advantages. Currently, risk assessments for a wide variety of incidents and accidents are being conducted using the above mentioned methods and their results will be used for the improvement of operation management. Furthermore, risk assessments for external incidents (earthquakes, etc.) are being planned

  7. Health effects of risk-assessment categories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kramer, C.F.; Rybicka, K.; Knutson, A.; Morris, S.C.

    1983-10-01

    Environmental and occupational health effects associated with exposures to various chemicals are a subject of increasing concern. One recently developed methodology for assessing the health impacts of various chemical compounds involves the classification of similar chemicals into risk-assessment categories (RACs). This report reviews documented human health effects for a broad range of pollutants, classified by RACs. It complements other studies that have estimated human health effects by RAC based on analysis and extrapolation of data from animal research

  8. Health effects of risk-assessment categories

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kramer, C.F.; Rybicka, K.; Knutson, A.; Morris, S.C.

    1983-10-01

    Environmental and occupational health effects associated with exposures to various chemicals are a subject of increasing concern. One recently developed methodology for assessing the health impacts of various chemical compounds involves the classification of similar chemicals into risk-assessment categories (RACs). This report reviews documented human health effects for a broad range of pollutants, classified by RACs. It complements other studies that have estimated human health effects by RAC based on analysis and extrapolation of data from animal research.

  9. Ignoring correlation in uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in life cycle assessment: what is the risk?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Groen, E.A., E-mail: Evelyne.Groen@gmail.com [Wageningen University, P.O. Box 338, Wageningen 6700 AH (Netherlands); Heijungs, R. [Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1105, Amsterdam 1081 HV (Netherlands); Leiden University, Einsteinweg 2, Leiden 2333 CC (Netherlands)

    2017-01-15

    Life cycle assessment (LCA) is an established tool to quantify the environmental impact of a product. A good assessment of uncertainty is important for making well-informed decisions in comparative LCA, as well as for correctly prioritising data collection efforts. Under- or overestimation of output uncertainty (e.g. output variance) will lead to incorrect decisions in such matters. The presence of correlations between input parameters during uncertainty propagation, can increase or decrease the the output variance. However, most LCA studies that include uncertainty analysis, ignore correlations between input parameters during uncertainty propagation, which may lead to incorrect conclusions. Two approaches to include correlations between input parameters during uncertainty propagation and global sensitivity analysis were studied: an analytical approach and a sampling approach. The use of both approaches is illustrated for an artificial case study of electricity production. Results demonstrate that both approaches yield approximately the same output variance and sensitivity indices for this specific case study. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the analytical approach can be used to quantify the risk of ignoring correlations between input parameters during uncertainty propagation in LCA. We demonstrate that: (1) we can predict if including correlations among input parameters in uncertainty propagation will increase or decrease output variance; (2) we can quantify the risk of ignoring correlations on the output variance and the global sensitivity indices. Moreover, this procedure requires only little data. - Highlights: • Ignoring correlation leads to under- or overestimation of the output variance. • We demonstrated that the risk of ignoring correlation can be quantified. • The procedure proposed is generally applicable in life cycle assessment. • In some cases, ignoring correlation has a minimal effect on decision-making tools.

  10. Patient caries risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, Svante; Fontana, Margherita

    2009-01-01

    Risk assessment is an essential component in the decision-making process for the correct prevention and management of dental caries. Multiple risk factors and indicators have been proposed as targets in the assessment of risk of future disease, varying sometimes based on the age group at which...... they are targeted. Multiple reviews and systematic reviews are available in the literature on this topic. This chapter focusses primarily on results of reviews based on longitudinal studies required to establish the accuracy of caries risk assessment. These findings demonstrate that there is a strong body...... of evidence to support that caries experience is still, unfortunately, the single best predictor for future caries development. In young children, prediction models which include a variety of risk factors seem to increase the accuracy of the prediction, while the usefulness of additional risk factors...

  11. Can an Internet-based health risk assessment highlight problems of heart disease risk factor awareness? A cross-sectional analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickerson, Justin B; McNeal, Catherine J; Tsai, Ginger; Rivera, Cathleen M; Smith, Matthew Lee; Ohsfeldt, Robert L; Ory, Marcia G

    2014-04-18

    Health risk assessments are becoming more popular as a tool to conveniently and effectively reach community-dwelling adults who may be at risk for serious chronic conditions such as coronary heart disease (CHD). The use of such instruments to improve adults' risk factor awareness and concordance with clinically measured risk factor values could be an opportunity to advance public health knowledge and build effective interventions. The objective of this study was to determine if an Internet-based health risk assessment can highlight important aspects of agreement between respondents' self-reported and clinically measured CHD risk factors for community-dwelling adults who may be at risk for CHD. Data from an Internet-based cardiovascular health risk assessment (Heart Aware) administered to community-dwelling adults at 127 clinical sites were analyzed. Respondents were recruited through individual hospital marketing campaigns, such as media advertising and print media, found throughout inpatient and outpatient facilities. CHD risk factors from the Framingham Heart Study were examined. Weighted kappa statistics were calculated to measure interrater agreement between respondents' self-reported and clinically measured CHD risk factors. Weighted kappa statistics were then calculated for each sample by strata of overall 10-year CHD risk. Three samples were drawn based on strategies for treating missing data: a listwise deleted sample, a pairwise deleted sample, and a multiple imputation (MI) sample. The MI sample (n=16,879) was most appropriate for addressing missing data. No CHD risk factor had better than marginal interrater agreement (κ>.60). High-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) exhibited suboptimal interrater agreement that deteriorated (eg, κInternet-based health risk assessments such as Heart Aware may contribute to public health surveillance, but they must address selection bias of Internet-based recruitment methods.

  12. Cardiovascular risk assessment in the treatment of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis: a secondary analysis of the MOZART trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Steven C; Ang, Brandon; Hernandez, Carolyn; Bettencourt, Ricki; Jain, Rashmi; Salotti, Joanie; Richards, Lisa; Kono, Yuko; Bhatt, Archana; Aryafar, Hamed; Lin, Grace Y; Valasek, Mark A; Sirlin, Claude B; Brouha, Sharon; Loomba, Rohit

    2016-03-01

    Nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is associated with increased cardiovascular risk and mortality. No US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved therapies for NASH are available; clinical trials to date have not yet systematically assessed for changes in cardiovascular risk. This study examines the prospective utility of cardiovascular risk assessments, the Framingham risk score (FRS) and coronary artery calcium (CAC) score, as endpoints in a NASH randomized clinical trial, and assesses whether histologic improvements lead to lower cardiovascular risk. Secondary analysis of a 24-week randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial (MOZART) in which 50 biopsy-proven NASH patients received oral ezetimibe 10 mg daily (n = 25) versus placebo (n = 25). Biochemical profiling, FRS, CAC scores, liver biopsies were obtained at baseline and endpoint. Ezetimibe improved FRS whereas placebo did not (4.4 ± 6.2 to 2.9 ± 4.8, p = 0.038; 3.0 ± 4.4 to 2.9 ± 4.2, p = 0.794). CAC scores did not change with ezetimibe or placebo (180.4 ± 577.2 to 194.1 ± 623.9, p = 0.293; 151.4 ± 448.9 to 183.3 ± 555.7, p = 0.256). Ezetimibe improved FRS and CAC scores in more patients than placebo (48% versus 23%, p = 0.079, and 21% versus 0%, p = 0.090, respectively), though not significantly. No differences were noted in cardiovascular risk scores among histologic responders versus nonresponders. Ezetimibe improved FRS whereas placebo did not. FRS and CAC scores improved in a greater proportion of patients with ezetimibe; this trend did not reach significance. These findings indicate the utility and feasibility of monitoring cardiovascular risk in a NASH trial. The utility of CAC scores may be higher in trials of longer duration (⩾52 weeks) and with older patients (age ⩾45). ClinicalTrials.gov registration: NCT01766713.

  13. Mare Risk Analysis monitor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fuente Prieto, I.; Alonso, P.; Carretero Fernandino, J. A.

    2000-01-01

    The Nuclear Safety Council's requirement that Spanish power plants comply with the requirements of the Maintenance Rule associated with plant risk assessment during power operation, arising from the partial unavailability of systems due to the maintenance activities, has led to need for additional tools to facilitate compliance with said requirements. While the impact on risk produced by individual equipment unavailabilities can easily be evaluated, either qualitatively or quantitatively, the process becomes more complicated when un programmed unavailabilities simultaneously occur in various systems, making it necessary to evaluate their functional impact. It is especially complex in the case of support systems that can affect the functionality of multiple systems. In view of the above, a computer application has been developed that is capable of providing the operator with quick answers based on the specific plant model in order to allow fast risk assessment using the information compiled as part of the Probabilistic Safety Analysis. The paper describes the most important characteristics of this application and the basic design requirements of the MARE Risk Monitor. (Author)

  14. Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures Guide for NASA Managers and Practitioners (Second Edition)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stamatelatos,Michael; Dezfuli, Homayoon; Apostolakis, George; Everline, Chester; Guarro, Sergio; Mathias, Donovan; Mosleh, Ali; Paulos, Todd; Riha, David; Smith, Curtis; hide

    2011-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a comprehensive, structured, and logical analysis method aimed at identifying and assessing risks in complex technological systems for the purpose of cost-effectively improving their safety and performance. NASA's objective is to better understand and effectively manage risk, and thus more effectively ensure mission and programmatic success, and to achieve and maintain high safety standards at NASA. NASA intends to use risk assessment in its programs and projects to support optimal management decision making for the improvement of safety and program performance. In addition to using quantitative/probabilistic risk assessment to improve safety and enhance the safety decision process, NASA has incorporated quantitative risk assessment into its system safety assessment process, which until now has relied primarily on a qualitative representation of risk. Also, NASA has recently adopted the Risk-Informed Decision Making (RIDM) process [1-1] as a valuable addition to supplement existing deterministic and experience-based engineering methods and tools. Over the years, NASA has been a leader in most of the technologies it has employed in its programs. One would think that PRA should be no exception. In fact, it would be natural for NASA to be a leader in PRA because, as a technology pioneer, NASA uses risk assessment and management implicitly or explicitly on a daily basis. NASA has probabilistic safety requirements (thresholds and goals) for crew transportation system missions to the International Space Station (ISS) [1-2]. NASA intends to have probabilistic requirements for any new human spaceflight transportation system acquisition. Methods to perform risk and reliability assessment in the early 1960s originated in U.S. aerospace and missile programs. Fault tree analysis (FTA) is an example. It would have been a reasonable extrapolation to expect that NASA would also become the world leader in the application of PRA. That was

  15. Source contribution and risk assessment of airborne toxic metals by neutron activation analysis in Taejeon industrial complex area - Concentration analysis and health risk assessment of airborne toxic metals in Taejeon 1,2 industrial Complex

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, J. H.; Jang, M. S.; Nam, B. H.; Yun, M. J. [Chungnam National Univ., Taejeon (Korea)

    2000-04-01

    The study centers on one-year continual concentration analysis using ICP-MS and on health risk assessment of 15 airborne toxic metals in Taejeon 1,2 industrial complex. About 1-year arithmetic mean of human carcinogen, arsenic, hexavalent chromium and nickel subsulfide is 6.05, 2.40 and 2.81 ng/m{sup 3} while the mean of probable human carcinogen, beryllium, cadmium and lead is 0.06, 3.92, 145.99 ng/m{sup 3}, respectively. And the long-term arithmetic mean concentration of non-carcinogenic metal, manganese is 44.60 ng/m{sup 3}. The point risk estimate for the inhalation of carcinogenic metals is 7.0 X10{sup -5}, which is higher than a risk standard of 10{sup -5}. The risk from human carcinogens is 6.2X10{sup -5}, while that from probable human carcinogens is 8.0X10{sup -6}, respectively. About 86 % of the cancer risk is due to the inhalation of human carcinogens, arsenic and hexavalent chromium. Thus, it is necessary to properly manage both arsenic and hexavalent chromium risk in Taejeon 1,2 industrial complex. 37 refs., 13 figs., 9 tabs. (Author)

  16. Risk Assessment Stability: A Revalidation Study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment Instrument

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwalbe, Craig S.

    2009-01-01

    The actuarial method is the gold standard for risk assessment in child welfare, juvenile justice, and criminal justice. It produces risk classifications that are highly predictive and that may be robust to sampling error. This article reports a revalidation study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment instrument, an actuarial instrument for juvenile…

  17. Assessment of Home-Based Nigerian Engineers on Risk ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Assessment of Home-Based Nigerian Engineers on Risk Management Approach ... Journal of Applied Sciences and Environmental Management ... The Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) and Correlation methods were adopted for statistical ...

  18. Formal safety assessment based on relative risks model in ship navigation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hu Shenping [Merchant Marine College, Shanghai Maritime University, 1550, Pudong Dadao, Shanghai 200135 (China)]. E-mail: sphu@mmc.shmtu.edu.cn; Fang Quangen [Merchant Marine College, Shanghai Maritime University, 1550, Pudong Dadao, Shanghai 200135 (China)]. E-mail: qgfang@mmc.shmtu.edu.cn; Xia Haibo [Merchant Marine College, Shanghai Maritime University, 1550, Pudong Dadao, Shanghai 200135 (China)]. E-mail: hbxia@mmc.shmtu.edu.cn; Xi Yongtao [Merchant Marine College, Shanghai Maritime University, 1550, Pudong Dadao, Shanghai 200135 (China)]. E-mail: xiyt@mmc.shmtu.edu.cn

    2007-03-15

    Formal safety assessment (FSA) is a structured and systematic methodology aiming at enhancing maritime safety. It has been gradually and broadly used in the shipping industry nowadays around the world. On the basis of analysis and conclusion of FSA approach, this paper discusses quantitative risk assessment and generic risk model in FSA, especially frequency and severity criteria in ship navigation. Then it puts forward a new model based on relative risk assessment (MRRA). The model presents a risk-assessment approach based on fuzzy functions and takes five factors into account, including detailed information about accident characteristics. It has already been used for the assessment of pilotage safety in Shanghai harbor, China. Consequently, it can be proved that MRRA is a useful method to solve the problems in the risk assessment of ship navigation safety in practice.

  19. Formal safety assessment based on relative risks model in ship navigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hu Shenping; Fang Quangen; Xia Haibo; Xi Yongtao

    2007-01-01

    Formal safety assessment (FSA) is a structured and systematic methodology aiming at enhancing maritime safety. It has been gradually and broadly used in the shipping industry nowadays around the world. On the basis of analysis and conclusion of FSA approach, this paper discusses quantitative risk assessment and generic risk model in FSA, especially frequency and severity criteria in ship navigation. Then it puts forward a new model based on relative risk assessment (MRRA). The model presents a risk-assessment approach based on fuzzy functions and takes five factors into account, including detailed information about accident characteristics. It has already been used for the assessment of pilotage safety in Shanghai harbor, China. Consequently, it can be proved that MRRA is a useful method to solve the problems in the risk assessment of ship navigation safety in practice

  20. From Physical Process to Economic Cost - Integrated Approaches of Landslide Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klose, M.; Damm, B.

    2014-12-01

    The nature of landslides is complex in many respects, with landslide hazard and impact being dependent on a variety of factors. This obviously requires an integrated assessment for fundamental understanding of landslide risk. Integrated risk assessment, according to the approach presented in this contribution, implies combining prediction of future landslide occurrence with analysis of landslide impact in the past. A critical step for assessing landslide risk in integrated perspective is to analyze what types of landslide damage affected people and property in which way and how people contributed and responded to these damage types. In integrated risk assessment, the focus is on systematic identification and monetization of landslide damage, and analytical tools that allow deriving economic costs from physical landslide processes are at the heart of this approach. The broad spectrum of landslide types and process mechanisms as well as nonlinearity between landslide magnitude, damage intensity, and direct costs are some main factors explaining recent challenges in risk assessment. The two prevailing approaches for assessing the impact of landslides in economic terms are cost survey (ex-post) and risk analysis (ex-ante). Both approaches are able to complement each other, but yet a combination of them has not been realized so far. It is common practice today to derive landslide risk without considering landslide process-based cause-effect relationships, since integrated concepts or new modeling tools expanding conventional methods are still widely missing. The approach introduced in this contribution is based on a systematic framework that combines cost survey and GIS-based tools for hazard or cost modeling with methods to assess interactions between land use practices and landslides in historical perspective. Fundamental understanding of landslide risk also requires knowledge about the economic and fiscal relevance of landslide losses, wherefore analysis of their

  1. National report of France. Risks and risk assessment according to the law of France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Backhaus, L.

    1980-01-01

    This report encompasses the following chapters: the fundamentals of the law governing conventional industrial facilities, normative principles of atomic energy law; risk assessments in the law concerning conventional industrial facilities, risk assessment in the law concerning nuclear power plants; application of probabilistic methods in the field of nuclear safety, probabilistic methods in the safety assessment of modern aircraft; concept of risk in police regulations, 'Theorie des risques anormaux de voisinage' in public law on indemnification, causality and probability in civil law. It is stated in this report that in France, too, the idea of completely reforming the procedures of safety analysis is gaining ground, and the change from hitherto applied deterministic methods to logical risk analyses and probabilistic licensing is to be expected in the long run. This change will most probably be effected by defining a general risk acceptance criterion by means of conventions and, on the basis of this generally accepted criterion, proceed to defining an accepted, quantitatively determined risk standard both for a complete plant and for individual systems. (orig./HSCH) [de

  2. Use of Monte Carlo methods in environmental risk assessments at the INEL: Applications and issues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harris, G.; Van Horn, R.

    1996-06-01

    The EPA is increasingly considering the use of probabilistic risk assessment techniques as an alternative or refinement of the current point estimate of risk. This report provides an overview of the probabilistic technique called Monte Carlo Analysis. Advantages and disadvantages of implementing a Monte Carlo analysis over a point estimate analysis for environmental risk assessment are discussed. The general methodology is provided along with an example of its implementation. A phased approach to risk analysis that allows iterative refinement of the risk estimates is recommended for use at the INEL.

  3. Use of Monte Carlo methods in environmental risk assessments at the INEL: Applications and issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harris, G.; Van Horn, R.

    1996-06-01

    The EPA is increasingly considering the use of probabilistic risk assessment techniques as an alternative or refinement of the current point estimate of risk. This report provides an overview of the probabilistic technique called Monte Carlo Analysis. Advantages and disadvantages of implementing a Monte Carlo analysis over a point estimate analysis for environmental risk assessment are discussed. The general methodology is provided along with an example of its implementation. A phased approach to risk analysis that allows iterative refinement of the risk estimates is recommended for use at the INEL

  4. [Risk assessment and risk control for occupational exposure to chemical toxicants from an isophorone nitrile device].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Dejun; Fu, Xiaokuan; Kong, Fanling; Sui, Shaofeng; Jiang, Yuanyuan; Du, Yinglin; Zhou, Jingyang

    2014-06-01

    Risk assessment and risk control for occupational exposure to chemical toxicants were performed on an isophorone nitrile device with an annual production of 5,000 tons, based on improved Singaporean semi-quantitative risk assessment method, with consideration of actual situation in China and in the present project. With the use of engineering analysis and identification of occupational hazards in the improved Singaporean semi-quantitative risk assessment method, hazard rating (HR) and risk assessment were performed on chemical toxicants from an isophorone nitrile device with an annual production of 5,000 tons. The chemical toxicants in the isophorone nitrile device were mainly isophorone, hydrocyanic acid, methanol, phosphoric acid, sodium hydroxide, and sodium cyanide; the HR values were mild hazard (2), extreme hazard (5), mild hazard (2), mild hazard (2), moderate hazard (3), and extreme hazard (5), respectively, and the corresponding exposure rating (ER) values were 2.09, 2.72, 2.76, 1.68, 2.0, and 1.59, respectively. The risk of chemical toxicants in this project was assessed according to the formula Risk = [HR×ER](1/2). Hydrocyanic acid was determined as high risk, sodium hydroxide and sodium cyanide as medium risk, and isophorone, methanol, and phosphoric acid as low risk. Priority in handling of risks was determined by risk rating. The table of risk control measure was established for pre-assessment of occupational hazards. With risk assessment in this study, we concluded that the isophorone nitrile device with 5,000 ton annual production was a high-occupational hazard device. This device is a project of extreme occupational hazard. The improved Singaporean semi-quantitative risk assessment method is a scientific and applicable method, and is especially suitable for pre-evaluation of on-site project with no analogy.

  5. Probabilistic Approaches for Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment of Structures and Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwag, Shinyoung

    Performance assessment of structures, systems, and components for multi-hazard scenarios has received significant attention in recent years. However, the concept of multi-hazard analysis is quite broad in nature and the focus of existing literature varies across a wide range of problems. In some cases, such studies focus on hazards that either occur simultaneously or are closely correlated with each other. For example, seismically induced flooding or seismically induced fires. In other cases, multi-hazard studies relate to hazards that are not dependent or correlated but have strong likelihood of occurrence at different times during the lifetime of a structure. The current approaches for risk assessment need enhancement to account for multi-hazard risks. It must be able to account for uncertainty propagation in a systems-level analysis, consider correlation among events or failure modes, and allow integration of newly available information from continually evolving simulation models, experimental observations, and field measurements. This dissertation presents a detailed study that proposes enhancements by incorporating Bayesian networks and Bayesian updating within a performance-based probabilistic framework. The performance-based framework allows propagation of risk as well as uncertainties in the risk estimates within a systems analysis. Unlike conventional risk assessment techniques such as a fault-tree analysis, a Bayesian network can account for statistical dependencies and correlations among events/hazards. The proposed approach is extended to develop a risk-informed framework for quantitative validation and verification of high fidelity system-level simulation tools. Validation of such simulations can be quite formidable within the context of a multi-hazard risk assessment in nuclear power plants. The efficiency of this approach lies in identification of critical events, components, and systems that contribute to the overall risk. Validation of any event or

  6. Modern Risk Assessment for Nuclear Power Plants High-Voltage Substations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ioan, S.; Hurdubetiu, S.; Marza, F.; Mocanu, M.; Stefan, M.

    2002-01-01

    The paper describes a first Romanian attempt to set up the methodology for risk assessment and control within high-voltage substations, developed for the Nuclear power plant in Cernavoda (Romania). Considering the present risk assessment methods the MENER Project will develop a new methodology, in line with the European Community legislation and with the specific regional needs. In order to correctly shape the necessary resources required by a risk analysis a large size enterprise (a nuclear power plant) is selected and the following five indicators will be estimated: the economic profit, environmental risk, indirect (future) risk, technology improvement and physic and psychological risk. The results are expected to considerably facilitate risk assessment, by: evaluating project acceptability; evaluating equipment compliance to regulatory criteria; estimating excluding clearances; easing the design of emergency programmes; identifying the equipment use restrictions; identifying the risk sources; selecting the maintenance and risk reduction methods; testing the procedures leading to future regulatory norms; suitability of the risk management system modification. The immediate result of employing modern risk assessment methods could be the decrease by one third of the expenses required by environment protection, staff health and labor safety and quality management. (author)

  7. Strategic Risk Assessment: A Decision Tool for Complex Decisions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pollard, Simon; Duarte-Davidson, Raquel; Yearsley, Roger [Environment Agency, London (United Kingdom). National Centre for Risk Analysis and Options Appraisal; Kemp, Ray; Crawford, Mark [Galson Sciences Limited, Oakham (United Kingdom)

    2001-07-01

    Reporting on the state of the environment often requires policy makers and regulators to prioritise a range of diverse environmental issues for the purpose of directing future action on environmental protection and improvement. Information on environmental issues to inform this type of analysis can be disparate, it may be too voluminous or even absent. Data on a range of issues are rarely presented in a common format that allows easy comparison. Nevertheless, strategic judgements are required on the significance of impacts from various environmental pressures and on the inherent uncertainties. Prioritising issues forces a discussion among stakeholders of the relative significance of 'environmental harm' from pressures acting on various receptors in the environment. Discussions of this sort rapidly evolve into a discourse on risks and values. In an attempt to help systematise these discussions and provide practical tools for the analysis of environmental risks at a strategic level, the Environment Agency of England and Wales has initiated developmental research on strategic risk assessment. The tools developed under this research use the concept of 'environmental harm' as a common currency, viewed from technical, social and economic perspectives, to analyse impacts from a range of environmental pressures. Critical to an informed debate is an understanding and analysis both of the various characteristics of harm (spatial and temporal extent, reversibility, latency, etc.) and of the social response to the actual or potential environmental harm. Recent developments in this approach allow a presentation of the analysis in a structured fashion so as to better inform risk management decisions. Here, we present recent developments in the strategic risk assessment research tool, as tested by case studies from state of the environment reporting and the analysis of a regional environmental plan. We discuss its relative advantages and limitations and its

  8. Strategic Risk Assessment: A Decision Tool for Complex Decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pollard, Simon; Duarte-Davidson, Raquel; Yearsley, Roger

    2001-01-01

    Reporting on the state of the environment often requires policy makers and regulators to prioritise a range of diverse environmental issues for the purpose of directing future action on environmental protection and improvement. Information on environmental issues to inform this type of analysis can be disparate, it may be too voluminous or even absent. Data on a range of issues are rarely presented in a common format that allows easy comparison. Nevertheless, strategic judgements are required on the significance of impacts from various environmental pressures and on the inherent uncertainties. Prioritising issues forces a discussion among stakeholders of the relative significance of 'environmental harm' from pressures acting on various receptors in the environment. Discussions of this sort rapidly evolve into a discourse on risks and values. In an attempt to help systematise these discussions and provide practical tools for the analysis of environmental risks at a strategic level, the Environment Agency of England and Wales has initiated developmental research on strategic risk assessment. The tools developed under this research use the concept of 'environmental harm' as a common currency, viewed from technical, social and economic perspectives, to analyse impacts from a range of environmental pressures. Critical to an informed debate is an understanding and analysis both of the various characteristics of harm (spatial and temporal extent, reversibility, latency, etc.) and of the social response to the actual or potential environmental harm. Recent developments in this approach allow a presentation of the analysis in a structured fashion so as to better inform risk management decisions. Here, we present recent developments in the strategic risk assessment research tool, as tested by case studies from state of the environment reporting and the analysis of a regional environmental plan. We discuss its relative advantages and limitations and its wider potential role

  9. Foresight begins with FMEA. Delivering accurate risk assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Passey, R D

    1999-03-01

    If sufficient factors are taken into account and two- or three-stage analysis is employed, failure mode and effect analysis represents an excellent technique for delivering accurate risk assessments for products and processes, and for relating them to legal liability. This article describes a format that facilitates easy interpretation.

  10. Track 6: safety and risk management. Plant operational risk management. Plant Configuration Risk Assessment Methodology Development for Periodic Maintenance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Huichang; Chung, Chang Hyun; Sung, Key Yong

    2001-01-01

    plant risk level. Such a change in the arrangement of the plant equipment and system at a given time period can be represented as the plant configuration. The plant configuration risk assessment methodology that was developed during this study consists of six steps, as follows: 1. Identification of plant configuration: In this step, various events that occurred in the plant should be identified through a review of the plant operation records such as the periodic maintenance and inspection schedules, maintenance or repair request logs, trouble reports, and other documents related to operational activity. 2. Evaluation of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model and computer codes: For the effective evaluation of plant risk during normal operation, an appropriate plant risk model should 273 be used, and the capability of computer codes should be evaluated. There might be numerous events that require the maintenance activity during normal operation. To handle these events during the risk calculation, an optimized plant PRA model and a risk analysis tool of fast calculation capacity are needed. 3. Development of baseline risk model and evaluation of baseline risk: The baseline risk model is a risk model similar to that used for the level 1 PRA, but the maintenance-related events are excluded. This methodology focuses on the relative risk change caused by the usual plant events. For this purpose, the baseline risk that will be the reference of risk variation should be evaluated as reasonably as possible. 4. Analysis of components and systems: For the detailed risk analysis, it is useful to perform the importance analysis for the target components or systems before calculating the plant risks. In terms of system unavailability analysis and importance analysis, information of specific components and systems should be performed for the detailed risk analysis 5. Evaluation of configuration risks and sensitivity analysis: Using the configuration and the system information from

  11. RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szabo Alina

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in the area and the professional expertise, this article outlines an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management reporting processes, by separating the risk in two main categories: strategic and operational risks. The focus is on risk prioritization and scoring; the final output will comprise a mix of strategic and operational (‘top 8-12’ risks, which should be used to establish the annual Internal Audit plan. Originality/value: By using an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management will eliminate the need for a separate Internal Audit risk assessment over prevailing risks. It will reduce the level of risk assessment overlap by different functions (Tax, Treasury, Information System over the same risk categories as a single methodology, is used and will align timings of risk assessment exercises. The risk prioritization by usage of risk and control scoring criteria highlights the combination between financial and non-financial impact criteria allowing risks that do not naturally lend themselves to a financial amount to be also assessed consistently. It is emphasized the usage of score method to prioritize the risks included in the annual audit plan in order to increase accuracy and timelines.

  12. Assessment of major nuclear technologies with decision and risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Winterfeldt, D. von

    1995-01-01

    Selecting technologies for major nuclear programs involves several complexities, including multiple stakeholders, multiple conflicting objectives, uncertainties, and risk. In addition, the programmatic risks related to the schedule, cost, and performance of these technologies often become major issues in the selection process. This paper describes a decision analysis approach for addressing these complexities in a logical manner

  13. Postural risk assessment of mechanised firewood processing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spinelli, Raffaele; Aminti, Giovanni; De Francesco, Fabio

    2017-03-01

    The study assessed the postural risk of mechanised firewood processing with eight machines, representing the main technology solutions available on the market. Assessment was conducted with the Ovako Working posture Analysis System (OWAS) on 1000 still frames randomly extracted from videotaped work samples. The postural risk associated with firewood processing was variable and associated with technology type. Simple, manually operated new machines incurred a higher postural risk compared with semi- or fully automatic machines. In contrast, new semi-automatic and automatic machines were generally free from postural risk. In all cases, attention should be paid to postural risk that may occur during blockage resolution. The study did not cover the postural risk of firewood processing sites as a whole. The study provided useful information for selecting firewood processing machinery and for improving firewood machinery design, as part of a more articulate strategy aimed at enhancing the safety of firewood processing work sites. Practitioner Summary: The postural risk associated with mechanised firewood processing (eg cutting and splitting) depends on the type of equipment. Postural risk is highest (OWAS Action Category 2) with new in-line machines, designed for operation by a single worker. Fully automatic machines present minimum postural risk, except during blockage resolution.

  14. An HVAC [heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning] fault-tree analysis for WIPP [Waste Isolation Pilot Plant] integrated risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirby, P.N.; Iacovino, J.M.

    1990-01-01

    In order to evaluate the public health risk of potential radioactive releases from operation of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), a probabilistic risk assessment of waste-handling operations was conducted. One major aspect of this risk assessment involved fault-tree analysis of the plant heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems, which constitute the final barrier between waste-handling operations and the environment. The WIPP site is designed to receive and store two types of waste: contact-handled transuranic (CH TRU) wastes to be shipped in 208-ell drums and remote-handled (RH) TRU wastes to be shipped in shielded casks. The identification of accident sequences for CH waste operations revealed no identified accidents that could release significant radioactive particulates to the environment without a failure in the HVAC systems. When the HVAC fault-tree results were combined with other critical system fault trees and the analysis of waste-handling accident sequences, the approximation of the overall WIPP plant risk due to airborne releases was determined to be 2.6 x 10 -7 fatalities per year for the population within a 50-mile radius of the WIPP site. This risk was demonstrated to be well below the risk of fatality from other voluntary and involuntary activities for the population within the vicinity of the WIPP

  15. The comparative risk assessment framework and tools (CRAFT)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Southern Research Station. USDA Forest Service

    2010-01-01

    To help address these challenges, the USDA Forest Service’s Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center (EFETAC) and the University of North Carolina Asheville’s National Environmental Modeling and Analysis Center (NEMAC) designed a planning framework, called the Comparative Risk Assessment Framework and Tools (CRAFT). CRAFT is...

  16. Risk assessment of transitional economies by multivariate and multicriteria approaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomić-Plazibat Neli

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This article assesses country-risk of sixteen Central, Baltic and South-East European transition countries, for 2005 and 2007, using multivariate cluster analysis. It was aided by the appropriate ANOVA (analysis of variance testing and the multicriteria PROMETHEE method. The combination of methods makes for more accurate and efficient country-risk assessment. Country risk classifications and ratings involve evaluating the performance of countries while considering their economic and socio-political characteristics. The purpose of the article is to classify, and then find the comparative position of each individual country in the group of analyzed countries, in order to find out to which extent development of market economy and democratic society has been achieved.

  17. Reliability and Probabilistic Risk Assessment - How They Play Together

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safie, Fayssal M.; Stutts, Richard G.; Zhaofeng, Huang

    2015-01-01

    PRA methodology is one of the probabilistic analysis methods that NASA brought from the nuclear industry to assess the risk of LOM, LOV and LOC for launch vehicles. PRA is a system scenario based risk assessment that uses a combination of fault trees, event trees, event sequence diagrams, and probability and statistical data to analyze the risk of a system, a process, or an activity. It is a process designed to answer three basic questions: What can go wrong? How likely is it? What is the severity of the degradation? Since 1986, NASA, along with industry partners, has conducted a number of PRA studies to predict the overall launch vehicles risks. Planning Research Corporation conducted the first of these studies in 1988. In 1995, Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) conducted a comprehensive PRA study. In July 1996, NASA conducted a two-year study (October 1996 - September 1998) to develop a model that provided the overall Space Shuttle risk and estimates of risk changes due to proposed Space Shuttle upgrades. After the Columbia accident, NASA conducted a PRA on the Shuttle External Tank (ET) foam. This study was the most focused and extensive risk assessment that NASA has conducted in recent years. It used a dynamic, physics-based, integrated system analysis approach to understand the integrated system risk due to ET foam loss in flight. Most recently, a PRA for Ares I launch vehicle has been performed in support of the Constellation program. Reliability, on the other hand, addresses the loss of functions. In a broader sense, reliability engineering is a discipline that involves the application of engineering principles to the design and processing of products, both hardware and software, for meeting product reliability requirements or goals. It is a very broad design-support discipline. It has important interfaces with many other engineering disciplines. Reliability as a figure of merit (i.e. the metric) is the probability that an item will

  18. Road Safety Risk Assessment: An Analysis of Transport Policy and Management for Low-, Middle-, and High-Income Asian Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Syyed Adnan Raheel Shah

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Road safety assessment has played a crucial role in the theory and practice of transport management systems. This paper focuses on risk evaluation in the Asian region by exploring the interaction between road safety risk and influencing factors. In the first stage, a data envelopment analysis (DEA method is applied to calculate and rank the road safety risk levels of Asian countries. In the second stage, a structural equation model (SEM with latent variables is applied to analyze the interaction between the road safety risk level and the latent variables, measured by six observed performance indicators, i.e., financial impact, institutional framework, infrastructure and mobility, legislation and policy, vehicular road users, and trauma management. Finally, this paper illustrates the applicability of this DEA-SEM approach for road safety performance analysis.

  19. [Patient safety in antibiotics administration: Risk assessment].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maqueda Palau, M; Pérez Juan, E

    To determine the level of risk in the preparation and administration of antibiotics frequently used in the Intensive Care Unit using a risk matrix. A study was conducted using situation analysis and literature review of databases, protocols and good practice guidelines on intravenous therapy, drugs, and their administration routes. The most used antibiotics in the ICU registered in the ENVIN-HELICS program from 1 April to 30 June 2015 were selected. In this period, 257 patients received antimicrobial treatment and 26 antibiotics were evaluated. Variables studied: A risk assessment of each antibiotic using the scale Risk Assessment Tool, of the National Patient Safety Agency, as well as pH, osmolarity, type of catheter recommended for administration, and compatibility and incompatibility with other antibiotics studied. Almost two-thirds (65.3%) of antibiotics had more than 3 risk factors (represented by a yellow stripe), with the remaining 34.7% of antibiotics having between 0 and 2 risk factors (represented by a green stripe). There were no antibiotics with 6 or more risk factors (represented by a red stripe). Most drugs needed reconstitution, additional dilution, and the use of part of the vial to administer the prescribed dose. More than half of the antibiotics studied had a moderate risk level; thus measures should be adopted in order to reduce it. The risk matrix is a useful tool for the assessment and detection of weaknesses associated with the preparation and administration of intravenous antibiotics. Copyright © 2016 SECA. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  20. Assessing the Environmental Risks of Nanomaterials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grieger, Khara Deanne; Hansen, Steffen Foss; Baun, Anders

    to a wide range of technical limitations. For instance, serious knowledge gaps remain within e.g. the detection of NM in the environment, developing adequate testing equipment and protocols, and toxicity endpoints (Grieger et al., 2009). In the past few years, many scientists and organizations have...... considered. Furthermore, we recommend the use of biomonitoring in some environmental ‘hot spots’ to serve as early warning detectors while the field of NM environmental risk assessment matures, as recommended in our previous work. Ultimately, this analysis may aid the advancement of environmental risk...

  1. Use of reliability engineering tools in safety and risk assessment of nuclear facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Raso, Amanda Laureano; Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Marques, Raíssa Oliveira; Soares, Wellington Antonio; Mesquita, Amir Zacarias, E-mail: amandaraso@hotmail.com, E-mail: vasconv@cdtn.br, E-mail: raissaomarques@gmail.com, E-mail: soaresw@cdtn.br, E-mail: amir@cdtn.br [Centro de Desenvolvimento da Tecnologia Nuclear (CDTN/CNEN-MG), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil). Serviço de Tecnologia de Reatores

    2017-07-01

    Safety, reliability and availability are fundamental criteria in design, construction and operation of nuclear facilities, as nuclear power plants. Deterministic and probabilistic risk assessments of such facilities are required by regulatory authorities in order to meet licensing regulations, contributing to assure safety, as well as reduce costs and environmental impacts. Probabilistic Risk Assessment has become an important part of licensing requirements of the nuclear power plants in Brazil and in the world. Risk can be defined as a qualitative and/or quantitative assessment of accident sequence frequencies (or probabilities) and their consequences. Risk management is a systematic application of management policies, procedures and practices to identify, analyze, plan, implement, control, communicate and document risks. Several tools and computer codes must be combined, in order to estimate both probabilities and consequences of accidents. Event Tree Analysis (ETA), Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), Reliability Block Diagrams (RBD), and Markov models are examples of evaluation tools that can support the safety and risk assessment for analyzing process systems, identifying potential accidents, and estimating consequences. Because of complexity of such analyzes, specialized computer codes are required, such as the reliability engineering software develop by Reliasoft® Corporation. BlockSim (FTA, RBD and Markov models), RENO (ETA and consequence assessment), Weibull++ (life data and uncertainty analysis), and Xfmea (qualitative risk assessment) are some codes that can be highlighted. This work describes an integrated approach using these tools and software to carry out reliability, safety, and risk assessment of nuclear facilities, as well as, and application example. (author)

  2. Use of reliability engineering tools in safety and risk assessment of nuclear facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raso, Amanda Laureano; Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Marques, Raíssa Oliveira; Soares, Wellington Antonio; Mesquita, Amir Zacarias

    2017-01-01

    Safety, reliability and availability are fundamental criteria in design, construction and operation of nuclear facilities, as nuclear power plants. Deterministic and probabilistic risk assessments of such facilities are required by regulatory authorities in order to meet licensing regulations, contributing to assure safety, as well as reduce costs and environmental impacts. Probabilistic Risk Assessment has become an important part of licensing requirements of the nuclear power plants in Brazil and in the world. Risk can be defined as a qualitative and/or quantitative assessment of accident sequence frequencies (or probabilities) and their consequences. Risk management is a systematic application of management policies, procedures and practices to identify, analyze, plan, implement, control, communicate and document risks. Several tools and computer codes must be combined, in order to estimate both probabilities and consequences of accidents. Event Tree Analysis (ETA), Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), Reliability Block Diagrams (RBD), and Markov models are examples of evaluation tools that can support the safety and risk assessment for analyzing process systems, identifying potential accidents, and estimating consequences. Because of complexity of such analyzes, specialized computer codes are required, such as the reliability engineering software develop by Reliasoft® Corporation. BlockSim (FTA, RBD and Markov models), RENO (ETA and consequence assessment), Weibull++ (life data and uncertainty analysis), and Xfmea (qualitative risk assessment) are some codes that can be highlighted. This work describes an integrated approach using these tools and software to carry out reliability, safety, and risk assessment of nuclear facilities, as well as, and application example. (author)

  3. A Risk-based Assessment And Management Framework For Multipollutant Air Quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frey, H. Christopher; Hubbell, Bryan

    2010-01-01

    The National Research Council recommended both a risk- and performance-based multipollutant approach to air quality management. Specifically, management decisions should be based on minimizing the exposure to, and risk of adverse effects from, multiple sources of air pollution and that the success of these decisions should be measured by how well they achieved this objective. We briefly describe risk analysis and its application within the current approach to air quality management. Recommendations are made as to how current practice could evolve to support a fully risk- and performance-based multipollutant air quality management system. The ability to implement a risk assessment framework in a credible and policy-relevant manner depends on the availability of component models and data which are scientifically sound and developed with an understanding of their application in integrated assessments. The same can be said about accountability assessments used to evaluate the outcomes of decisions made using such frameworks. The existing risk analysis framework, although typically applied to individual pollutants, is conceptually well suited for analyzing multipollutant management actions. Many elements of this framework, such as emissions and air quality modeling, already exist with multipollutant characteristics. However, the framework needs to be supported with information on exposure and concentration response relationships that result from multipollutant health studies. Because the causal chain that links management actions to emission reductions, air quality improvements, exposure reductions and health outcomes is parallel between prospective risk analyses and retrospective accountability assessments, both types of assessment should be placed within a single framework with common metrics and indicators where possible. Improvements in risk reductions can be obtained by adopting a multipollutant risk analysis framework within the current air quality management

  4. Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waterhouse, Rachel

    1992-01-01

    The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered

  5. Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Waterhouse, Rachel [Consumer' s Association, Health and Safety Commission (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered.

  6. Dose-stress synergism in cancer risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pop-Jordanova, N.; Pop-Jordanov, J.

    2001-01-01

    Our hypothesis is that the relatively low risk of cancer or leukaemia from depleted uranium, as predicted by the World Health Organization and the International Atomic Energy Agency, is a result of neglecting the synergism between physico-chemical agents and psychological stress agents (here shortly denoted as dose-stress synergism). We use the modified risk assessment model that comprises a psycho-somatic extension, originally developed by us for assessing the risks of energy sources. Our preliminary meta-analysis of animal and human studies on cancers confirmed the existence of stress effects, including the amplifying synergism. Consequently, the psychological stress can increase the probability of even small toxic chemical or ionizing radiation exposure to produce malignancy. Such dose-stress synergism might influence the health risks among military personnel and the residents in the highly stressful environment in the Balkans. Further investigation is needed to estimate the order of magnitude of these combined effects in particular circumstances. (Original)

  7. Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon; Kelly, Dana; Smith, Curtis; Vedros, Kurt; Galyean, William

    2009-01-01

    This document, Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis, is intended to provide guidelines for the collection and evaluation of risk and reliability-related data. It is aimed at scientists and engineers familiar with risk and reliability methods and provides a hands-on approach to the investigation and application of a variety of risk and reliability data assessment methods, tools, and techniques. This document provides both: A broad perspective on data analysis collection and evaluation issues. A narrow focus on the methods to implement a comprehensive information repository. The topics addressed herein cover the fundamentals of how data and information are to be used in risk and reliability analysis models and their potential role in decision making. Understanding these topics is essential to attaining a risk informed decision making environment that is being sought by NASA requirements and procedures such as 8000.4 (Agency Risk Management Procedural Requirements), NPR 8705.05 (Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures for NASA Programs and Projects), and the System Safety requirements of NPR 8715.3 (NASA General Safety Program Requirements).

  8. Fire Risk Assessment in Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berg, H. P.

    2000-01-01

    Quantitative fire risk assessment can serve as an additional tool to assess the safety level of a nuclear power plant (NPP) and to set priorities for fire protection improvement measures. The recommended approach to be applied within periodic safety reviews of NPPs in Germany starts with a screening process providing critical fire zones in which a fully developed fire has the potential to both cause an initiating event and impair the function of at least one component or system critical to safety. The second step is to perform a quantitative analysis using a standard event tree has been developed with elements for fire initiation, ventilation of the room, fire detection, fire suppression, and fire propagation. In a final step, the fire induced frequency of initiating events, the main contributors and the calculated hazard state frequency for the fire event are determined. Results of the first quantitative fire risk studies performed in Germany are reported. (author)

  9. Mixtures and their risk assessment in toxicology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mumtaz, Moiz M; Hansen, Hugh; Pohl, Hana R

    2011-01-01

    For communities generally and for persons living in the vicinity of waste sites specifically, potential exposures to chemical mixtures are genuine concerns. Such concerns often arise from perceptions of a site's higher than anticipated toxicity due to synergistic interactions among chemicals. This chapter outlines some historical approaches to mixtures risk assessment. It also outlines ATSDR's current approach to toxicity risk assessment. The ATSDR's joint toxicity assessment guidance for chemical mixtures addresses interactions among components of chemical mixtures. The guidance recommends a series of steps that include simple calculations for a systematic analysis of data leading to conclusions regarding any hazards chemical mixtures might pose. These conclusions can, in turn, lead to recommendations such as targeted research to fill data gaps, development of new methods using current science, and health education to raise awareness of residents and health care providers. The chapter also provides examples of future trends in chemical mixtures assessment.

  10. Development of a Quantitative Framework for Regulatory Risk Assessments: Probabilistic Approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilmot, R.D.

    2003-11-01

    The Swedish regulators have been active in the field of performance assessment for many years and have developed sophisticated approaches to the development of scenarios and other aspects of assessments. These assessments have generally used dose as the assessment end-point and have been based on deterministic calculations. Recently introduced Swedish regulations have introduced a risk criterion for radioactive waste disposal: the annual risk of harmful effects after closure of a disposal facility should not exceed 10 -6 for a representative individual in the group exposed to the greatest risk. A recent review of the overall structure of risk assessments in safety cases concluded that there are a number of decisions and assumptions in the development of a risk assessment methodology that could potentially affect the calculated results. Regulatory understanding of these issues, potentially supported by independent calculations, is important in preparing for review of a proponent's risk assessment. One approach to evaluating risk in performance assessments is to use the concept of probability to express uncertainties, and to propagate these probabilities through the analysis. This report describes the various approaches available for undertaking such probabilistic analyses, both as a means of accounting for uncertainty in the determination of risk and more generally as a means of sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. The report discusses the overall nature of probabilistic analyses and how they are applied to both the calculation of risk and sensitivity analyses. Several approaches are available, including differential analysis, response surface methods and simulation. Simulation is the approach most commonly used, both in assessments for radioactive waste disposal and in other subject areas, and the report describes the key stages of this approach in detail. Decisions relating to the development of input PDFs, sampling methods (including approaches to the treatment

  11. Using risk assessment in periodontics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodman, Alan J

    2014-08-01

    Risk assessment has become a regular feature in both dental practice and society as a whole, and principles used to assess risk in society are similar to those used in a clinical setting. Although the concept of risk assessment as a prognostic indicator for periodontal disease incidence and activity is well established in the management of periodontitis, the use of risk assessment to manage the practical treatment of periodontitis and its sequelae appears to have less foundation. A simple system of initial risk assessment - building on the use of the Basic Periodontal Examination (BPE), clinical, medical and social factors - is described, linked to protocols for delivering care suited to general dental practice and stressing the role of long-term supportive care. The risks of not treating the patient are considered, together with the possible causes of failure, and the problems of successful treatment are illustrated by the practical management of post-treatment recession.

  12. Risk assessment activities at NIOSH: Information resources and needs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stayner, L.T.; Meinhardt, T.; Hardin, B. [National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health, Cincinnati, OH (United States)

    1990-12-31

    Under the Occupational Safety and Health, and Mine Safety and Health Acts, the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) is charged with development of recommended occupational safety and health standards, and with conducting research to support the development of these standards. Thus, NIOSH has been actively involved in the analysis of risk associated with occupational exposures, and in the development of research information that is critical for the risk assessment process. NIOSH research programs and other information resources relevant to the risk assessment process are described in this paper. Future needs for information resources are also discussed.

  13. Risk assessment and remedial policy evaluation using predictive modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Linkov, L.; Schell, W.R.

    1996-01-01

    As a result of nuclear industry operation and accidents, large areas of natural ecosystems have been contaminated by radionuclides and toxic metals. Extensive societal pressure has been exerted to decrease the radiation dose to the population and to the environment. Thus, in making abatement and remediation policy decisions, not only economic costs but also human and environmental risk assessments are desired. This paper introduces a general framework for risk assessment and remedial policy evaluation using predictive modeling. Ecological risk assessment requires evaluation of the radionuclide distribution in ecosystems. The FORESTPATH model is used for predicting the radionuclide fate in forest compartments after deposition as well as for evaluating the efficiency of remedial policies. Time of intervention and radionuclide deposition profile was predicted as being crucial for the remediation efficiency. Risk assessment conducted for a critical group of forest users in Belarus shows that consumption of forest products (berries and mushrooms) leads to about 0.004% risk of a fatal cancer annually. Cost-benefit analysis for forest cleanup suggests that complete removal of organic layer is too expensive for application in Belarus and a better methodology is required. In conclusion, FORESTPATH modeling framework could have wide applications in environmental remediation of radionuclides and toxic metals as well as in dose reconstruction and, risk-assessment

  14. Formulation and Presentation of Risk Assessments to Address Risk Targets for Radioactive Waste Disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilmot, R.D.

    2002-10-01

    The Swedish regulators have been active in the field of performance assessment of radioactive waste disposal facilities for many years and have developed sophisticated approaches to the development of scenarios and other aspects of assessments. These assessments have generally used dose as the assessment end-point. Regulations recently established in Sweden (SSI FS 1998:1) have introduced a risk criterion for radioactive waste disposal: the annual risk of harmful effects after closure of a disposal facility should not exceed 10 -6 for a representative individual in the group exposed to the greatest risk. This report evaluates different approaches to the definition and use of probabilities in the context of risk assessments, and examines the presentation of the results of risk assessments in safety cases to meet risk targets. The report illustrates the strengths and weaknesses of different possible approaches to risk assessment by reference to assessments in other countries, and provides suggestions for future activity and development in this area by the Swedish regulators. The review of experience in other countries has led to a number of key observations relevant to the conduct of regulatory work on risk assessments and preparations for review. These highlight the importance of developing a protocol for conducting calculations, and linking such a protocol to the requirements of risk assessment calculations and to existing code and model capabilities. There are a number of decisions and assumptions required in developing a risk assessment methodology that could potentially affect the calculated results. These assumptions are independent of the analysis of performance, and relate to issues such as the expectation value of risk, risk dilution, the definition of probability density functions and achieving convergence. A review of a proponent's risk assessment should address these issues in determining the appropriateness and validity of the results presented

  15. Formulation and Presentation of Risk Assessments to Address Risk Targets for Radioactive Waste Disposal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilmot, R.D. [Galson Sciences Ltd, Oakham (United Kingdom)

    2002-10-01

    The Swedish regulators have been active in the field of performance assessment of radioactive waste disposal facilities for many years and have developed sophisticated approaches to the development of scenarios and other aspects of assessments. These assessments have generally used dose as the assessment end-point. Regulations recently established in Sweden (SSI FS 1998:1) have introduced a risk criterion for radioactive waste disposal: the annual risk of harmful effects after closure of a disposal facility should not exceed 10{sup -6} for a representative individual in the group exposed to the greatest risk. This report evaluates different approaches to the definition and use of probabilities in the context of risk assessments, and examines the presentation of the results of risk assessments in safety cases to meet risk targets. The report illustrates the strengths and weaknesses of different possible approaches to risk assessment by reference to assessments in other countries, and provides suggestions for future activity and development in this area by the Swedish regulators. The review of experience in other countries has led to a number of key observations relevant to the conduct of regulatory work on risk assessments and preparations for review. These highlight the importance of developing a protocol for conducting calculations, and linking such a protocol to the requirements of risk assessment calculations and to existing code and model capabilities. There are a number of decisions and assumptions required in developing a risk assessment methodology that could potentially affect the calculated results. These assumptions are independent of the analysis of performance, and relate to issues such as the expectation value of risk, risk dilution, the definition of probability density functions and achieving convergence. A review of a proponent's risk assessment should address these issues in determining the appropriateness and validity of the results presented

  16. Assessment of accident risks from german nuclear plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heuser, F.W.

    1979-01-01

    The German risk study are presented. The main objectives can be summed up as follows: (a) An assessment of the societal risk due to accidents in nuclear power plants with reference to German conditions; (b) To get experience in the field of risk analysis and to provide a basis for estimation of uncertainties; (c) To provide guidance for future activities in the German Reactor Safety Research Program. Finally several conclusions reached by this study are discussed. (author)

  17. Applications of probabilistic risk analysis in nuclear criticality safety design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, J.K.

    1992-01-01

    Many documents have been prepared that try to define the scope of the criticality analysis and that suggest adding probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) to the deterministic safety analysis. The report of the US Department of Energy (DOE) AL 5481.1B suggested that an accident is credible if the occurrence probability is >1 x 10 -6 /yr. The draft DOE 5480 safety analysis report suggested that safety analyses should include the application of methods such as deterministic safety analysis, risk assessment, reliability engineering, common-cause failure analysis, human reliability analysis, and human factor safety analysis techniques. The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) report NRC SG830.110 suggested that major safety analysis methods should include but not be limited to risk assessment, reliability engineering, and human factor safety analysis. All of these suggestions have recommended including PRA in the traditional criticality analysis

  18. Patient safety in external beam radiotherapy, results of the ACCIRAD project: Current status of proactive risk assessment, reactive analysis of events, and reporting and learning systems in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malicki, Julian; Bly, Ritva; Bulot, Mireille; Godet, Jean-Luc; Jahnen, Andreas; Krengli, Marco; Maingon, Philippe; Prieto Martin, Carlos; Przybylska, Kamila; Skrobała, Agnieszka; Valero, Marc; Jarvinen, Hannu

    2017-04-01

    To describe the current status of implementation of European directives for risk management in radiotherapy and to assess variability in risk management in the following areas: 1) in-country regulatory framework; 2) proactive risk assessment; (3) reactive analysis of events; and (4) reporting and learning systems. The original data were collected as part of the ACCIRAD project through two online surveys. Risk assessment criteria are closely associated with quality assurance programs. Only 9/32 responding countries (28%) with national regulations reported clear "requirements" for proactive risk assessment and/or reactive risk analysis, with wide variability in assessment methods. Reporting of adverse error events is mandatory in most (70%) but not all surveyed countries. Most European countries have taken steps to implement European directives designed to reduce the probability and magnitude of accidents in radiotherapy. Variability between countries is substantial in terms of legal frameworks, tools used to conduct proactive risk assessment and reactive analysis of events, and in the reporting and learning systems utilized. These findings underscore the need for greater harmonisation in common terminology, classification and reporting practices across Europe to improve patient safety and to enable more reliable inter-country comparisons. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Health risk assessment for program managers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jump, R.A.; Williamson, D.S.

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents the findings of a sensitivity analysis into the independent variables that determine the levels of health risks posed by buried plutonium and americium at a typical contaminated site in an arid region. Environmental Restoration Program Managers often must make decisions concerning cleanup levels, remediation alternatives, schedules, cost estimates, etc. based upon extraordinarily safe assumptions about risk assessment calculation inputs. This study reveals to the Program Manager which variables are major drivers to the calculated levels of risk posed by transuranic radionuclides and which ones have second order effects or less. The findings of this study should indicate which inputs should be the focus of attention during negotiations with regulators and of further empirical investigation

  20. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cathryn Clarke Murray

    Full Text Available The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such "indirect risks" can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their "at-risk status" designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but-by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here-they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within.

  1. Hierarchic Analysis Method to Evaluate Rock Burst Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming Ji

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to reasonably evaluate the risk of rock bursts in mines, the factors impacting rock bursts and the existing grading criterion on the risk of rock bursts were studied. By building a model of hierarchic analysis method, the natural factors, technology factors, and management factors that influence rock bursts were analyzed and researched, which determined the degree of each factor’s influence (i.e., weight and comprehensive index. Then the grade of rock burst risk was assessed. The results showed that the assessment level generated by the model accurately reflected the actual risk degree of rock bursts in mines. The model improved the maneuverability and practicability of existing evaluation criteria and also enhanced the accuracy and science of rock burst risk assessment.

  2. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with...

  3. A structured hazard analysis and risk assessment method for automotive systems—A descriptive study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beckers, Kristian; Holling, Dominik; Côté, Isabelle; Hatebur, Denis

    2017-01-01

    The 2011 release of the first version of the ISO 26262 standard for automotive systems demand the elicitation of safety goals following a rigorous method for hazard and risk analysis. Companies are struggling with the adoption of the standard due to ambiguities, documentation demands and the alignment of the standards demands to existing processes. We previously proposed a structured engineering method to deal with these problems developed in applying action research together with an OEM. In this work, we evaluate how applicable the method is for junior automotive software engineers by a descriptive study. We provided the method to 8 members of the master course Automotive Software Engineering (ASE) at the Technical University Munich. The participants have each been working in the automotive industry for 1–4 years in parallel to their studies. We investigated their application of our method to an electronic steering column lock system. The participants applied our method in a first round alone and afterwards discussed their results in groups. Our data analysis revealed that the participants could apply the method successfully and the hazard analysis and risk assessment achieved a high precision and productivity. Moreover, the precision could be improved significantly during group discussions.

  4. Environmental chemicals - how do we assess the risk (question mark)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Somers, E.

    Risk assessment is considered as comprising risk identification, risk estimation, and risk evaluation. The methodology of risk estimation is described and the key role of animal experimentation outlined, drawing attention to the inherent problems of extrapolating from animals to humans. The application of risk estimation to regulatory decision-making in Canada is given for chloroform in drinking water; asbestos in dry-wall patching compounds; arsenic emissions in air; nitrogen oxides; mercury in fish; and the food additive saccharin. Risk evaluation represents societal judgement and is ultimately political but a number of techniques can be of value in separating the competing factors, i.e., comparison with natural background or with other risks, balancing risks from alternatives, and risk-benefit analysis. However, the inherent limitations of a completely rational approach to risk assessment must always be recognized. (author)

  5. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mach, Megan E.; Martone, Rebecca G.; Singh, Gerald G.; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M. A.

    2016-01-01

    The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such “indirect risks” can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their “at-risk status” designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but—by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here—they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within. PMID:27632287

  6. Risk assessment in international operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stricklin, Daniela L.

    2008-01-01

    During international peace-keeping missions, a diverse number of non-battle hazards may be encountered, which range from heavily polluted areas, endemic disease, toxic industrial materials, local violence, traffic, and even psychological factors. Hence, elevated risk levels from a variety of sources are encountered during deployments. With the emphasis within the Swedish military moving from national defense towards prioritization of international missions in atypical environments, the risk of health consequences, including long term health effects, has received greater consideration. The Swedish military is interested in designing an optimal approach for assessment of health threats during deployments. The Medical Intelligence group at FOI CBRN Security and Defence in Umea has, on request from and in collaboration with the Swedish Armed Forces, reviewed a variety of international health threat and risk assessment models for military operations. Application of risk assessment methods used in different phases of military operations will be reviewed. An overview of different international approaches used in operational risk management (ORM) will be presented as well as a discussion of the specific needs and constraints for health risk assessment in military operations. This work highlights the specific challenges of risk assessment that are unique to the deployment setting such as the assessment of exposures to a variety of diverse hazards concurrently

  7. Implications of probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cullingford, M.C.; Shah, S.M.; Gittus, J.H.

    1987-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is an analytical process that quantifies the likelihoods, consequences and associated uncertainties of the potential outcomes of postulated events. Starting with planned or normal operation, probabilistic risk assessment covers a wide range of potential accidents and considers the whole plant and the interactions of systems and human actions. Probabilistic risk assessment can be applied in safety decisions in design, licensing and operation of industrial facilities, particularly nuclear power plants. The proceedings include a review of PRA procedures, methods and technical issues in treating uncertainties, operating and licensing issues and future trends. Risk assessment for specific reactor types or components and specific risks (eg aircraft crashing onto a reactor) are used to illustrate the points raised. All 52 articles are indexed separately. (U.K.)

  8. Environmental Risk Assessment: Spatial Analysis of Chemical Hazards and Risks in South Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, H.; Heo, S.; Kim, M.; Lee, W. K.; Jong-Ryeul, S.

    2017-12-01

    This study identified chemical hazard and risk levels in Korea by analyzing the spatial distribution of chemical factories and accidents. The number of chemical factories and accidents in 5-km2 grids were used as the attribute value for spatial analysis. First, semi-variograms were conducted to examine spatial distribution patterns and to identify spatial autocorrelation of chemical factories and accidents. Semi-variograms explained that the spatial distribution of chemical factories and accidents were spatially autocorrelated. Second, the results of the semi-variograms were used in Ordinary Kriging to estimate chemical hazard and risk level. The level values were extracted from the Ordinary Kriging result and their spatial similarity was examined by juxtaposing the two values with respect to their location. Six peaks were identified in both the hazard and risk estimation result, and the peaks correlated with major cities in Korea. Third, the estimated hazard and risk levels were classified with geometrical interval and could be classified into four quadrants: Low Hazard and Low Risk (LHLR), Low Hazard and High Risk (LHHR), High Hazard and Low Risk (HHLR), and High Hazard and High Risk (HHHR). The 4 groups identified different chemical safety management issues in Korea; relatively safe LHLR group, many chemical reseller factories were found in HHLR group, chemical transportation accidents were in the LHHR group, and an abundance of factories and accidents were in the HHHR group. Each quadrant represented different safety management obstacles in Korea, and studying spatial differences can support the establishment of an efficient risk management plan.

  9. Taking risk assessment and management to the next level - 59395

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nelson, Jerel; Morton, Russel Lee; Castillo, Carlos; Dyer, George; Johnson, Natalie; McSwain, James T.; Kruskall, Gary Nick

    2012-01-01

    Document available in abstract form only. Full text of publication follows: A multi-level (facility and programmatic) risk assessment was conducted for the facilities in the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) Readiness in Technical Base and Facilities (RTBF) Program and results were included in a new Risk Management Plan (RMP), which was incorporated into the fiscal year (FY) 2010 Integrated Plans. Risks, risk events, probability, consequence(s), and mitigation strategies were identified and captured, for most scope areas (i.e., risk categories) during the facilitated risk workshops. Risk mitigations (i.e., efforts in addition to existing controls) were identified during the facilitated risk workshops when the risk event was identified. Risk mitigation strategies fell into two broad categories: threats or opportunities. Improvement projects were identified and linked to specific risks they mitigate, making the connection of risk reduction through investments for the annual Site Execution Plan. Due to the amount of that was collected, analysis to be performed, and reports to be generated, a Risk Assessment/ Management Tool (RAMtool) database was developed to analyze the risks in real-time, at multiple levels, which reinforced the site-level risk management process and procedures. The RAMtool database was developed and designed to assist in the capturing and analysis of the key elements of risk: probability, consequence, and impact

  10. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.

  11. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms open-quote risk assessment close-quote and open-quote risk management close-quote are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of open-quotes... the most significant data and uncertainties...close quotes in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are open-quotes...those that define and explain the main risk conclusionsclose quotes. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation

  12. Risk management and analysis: risk assessment (qualitative and quantitative)

    OpenAIRE

    Valentin Mazareanu

    2007-01-01

    We use to define risk as the possibility of suffering a loss. Starting this, risk management is defined as a business process whose purpose is to ensure that the organization is protected against risks and their effects. In order to prioritize, to develop a response plan and after that to monitor the identified risks we need to asses them. But at this point a question is born: should I choose a qualitative approach or a quantitative one? This paper will make a short overview over the risk eva...

  13. Advanced Test Reactor outage risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thatcher, T.A.; Atkinson, S.A.

    1997-01-01

    Beginning in 1997, risk assessment was performed for each Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) outage aiding the coordination of plant configuration and work activities (maintenance, construction projects, etc.) to minimize the risk of reactor fuel damage and to improve defense-in-depth. The risk assessment activities move beyond simply meeting Technical Safety Requirements to increase the awareness of risk sensitive configurations, to focus increased attention on the higher risk activities, and to seek cost-effective design or operational changes that reduce risk. A detailed probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) had been performed to assess the risk of fuel damage during shutdown operations including heavy load handling. This resulted in several design changes to improve safety; however, evaluation of individual outages had not been performed previously and many risk insights were not being utilized in outage planning. The shutdown PRA provided the necessary framework for assessing relative and absolute risk levels and assessing defense-in-depth. Guidelines were written identifying combinations of equipment outages to avoid. Screening criteria were developed for the selection of work activities to receive review. Tabulation of inherent and work-related initiating events and their relative risk level versus plant mode has aided identification of the risk level the scheduled work involves. Preoutage reviews are conducted and post-outage risk assessment is documented to summarize the positive and negative aspects of the outage with regard to risk. The risk for the outage is compared to the risk level that would result from optimal scheduling of the work to be performed and to baseline or average past performance

  14. Cumulative Risk Assessment Toolbox: Methods and Approaches for the Practitioner

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Margaret M. MacDonell

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The historical approach to assessing health risks of environmental chemicals has been to evaluate them one at a time. In fact, we are exposed every day to a wide variety of chemicals and are increasingly aware of potential health implications. Although considerable progress has been made in the science underlying risk assessments for real-world exposures, implementation has lagged because many practitioners are unaware of methods and tools available to support these analyses. To address this issue, the US Environmental Protection Agency developed a toolbox of cumulative risk resources for contaminated sites, as part of a resource document that was published in 2007. This paper highlights information for nearly 80 resources from the toolbox and provides selected updates, with practical notes for cumulative risk applications. Resources are organized according to the main elements of the assessment process: (1 planning, scoping, and problem formulation; (2 environmental fate and transport; (3 exposure analysis extending to human factors; (4 toxicity analysis; and (5 risk and uncertainty characterization, including presentation of results. In addition to providing online access, plans for the toolbox include addressing nonchemical stressors and applications beyond contaminated sites and further strengthening resource accessibility to support evolving analyses for cumulative risk and sustainable communities.

  15. GAR Global Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar

    2015-04-01

    Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.

  16. Integrated societal risk assessment framework for nuclear power and renewable energy sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hyun Gook

    2015-01-01

    Recently, the estimation of the social cost of energy sources has been emphasized as various novel energy options become feasible in addition to conventional ones. In particular, the social cost of introducing measures to protect power-distribution systems from power-source instability and the cost of accident-risk response for various power sources must be investigated. To account for these risk factors, an integrated societal risk assessment framework, based on power-uncertainty analysis and accident-consequence analysis, is proposed. In this study, we applied the proposed framework to nuclear power plants, solar photovoltaic systems, and wind-turbine generators. The required capacity of gas-turbine power plants to be used as backup power facilities to compensate for fluctuations in the power output from the main power source was estimated based on the performance indicators of each power source. The average individual health risk per terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity produced by each power source was quantitatively estimated by assessing accident frequency and the consequences of specific accident scenarios based on the probabilistic risk assessment methodology. This study is expected to provide insight into integrated societal risk analysis, and can be used to estimate the social cost of various power sources

  17. Integrated societal risk assessment framework for nuclear power and renewable energy sources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hyun Gook [Dept. of Nuclear and Quantum Engineering, KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-06-15

    Recently, the estimation of the social cost of energy sources has been emphasized as various novel energy options become feasible in addition to conventional ones. In particular, the social cost of introducing measures to protect power-distribution systems from power-source instability and the cost of accident-risk response for various power sources must be investigated. To account for these risk factors, an integrated societal risk assessment framework, based on power-uncertainty analysis and accident-consequence analysis, is proposed. In this study, we applied the proposed framework to nuclear power plants, solar photovoltaic systems, and wind-turbine generators. The required capacity of gas-turbine power plants to be used as backup power facilities to compensate for fluctuations in the power output from the main power source was estimated based on the performance indicators of each power source. The average individual health risk per terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity produced by each power source was quantitatively estimated by assessing accident frequency and the consequences of specific accident scenarios based on the probabilistic risk assessment methodology. This study is expected to provide insight into integrated societal risk analysis, and can be used to estimate the social cost of various power sources.

  18. Evaluation of thermal risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loos, J.J.; Perry, E.S.

    1993-01-01

    Risk assessment was done in 1983 to estimate the ecological hazard of increasing the generating load and thermal output of an electric generating station. Subsequently, long-term monitoring in the vicinity of the station allowed verification of the predictions made in the risk assessment. This presentation will review the efficacy of early risk assessment methods in producing useful predictions from a resource management point of view. In 1984, the Chalk Point Generating facility of the Potomac Electric Power Company increased it's median generating load by 100%. Prior to this operational change, the Academy of Natural Sciences of Philadelphia synthesized site specific data, model predictions, and results from literature to assess the risk of additional waste heat to the Patuxent River subestuary of Chesapeake Bay. Risk was expressed as the number of days per year that various species of fish and the blue crab would be expected to avoid the discharge vicinity. Accuracy of these predictions is assessed by comparing observed fish and crab distributions and their observed frequencies of avoidance to those predicted. It is concluded that the predictions of this early risk assessment were sufficiently accurate to produce a reliable resource management decision

  19. On risk assessment of energy production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kunii, Katsuhiko

    2005-07-01

    Today we cannot ignore the risk of health and/or environment by energy production such as power generation since the risk has been made large enough. In this report an information survey has been done in order to know the outline and points of risk assessment. Based on the information of reports and literature about risk assessment, have been surveyed mainly the external cost assessment of power generation (in which quantification of health and/or environment risk has been done), in addition, risks of disasters, accidents, investments, finance etc. and impacts of those risks on social activities. The remarks obtained by the survey are as follows: 1) Some of external cost assessment of power generation show different results even if the assessment conditions of technology, site, etc. are mostly the same. It is necessary to remark on the information such as basic data, model, background, application limit of assessment considering the reliability. 2) Especially it is considered that the reliability of risk assessment is not enough at present because of the lack of basic data. (author)

  20. Ecotoxicological, ecophysiological, and biogeochemical fundamentals of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bashkin, V.N.; Kozlov, M.Ya.; Evstafjeva, E.V.

    1993-01-01

    Risk assessment (RA) influenced by different factors in radionuclide polluted regions is carried out by determining the biogeochemical structure of a region. Consequently, ecological-biogeochemical regionalization, ecotoxicological and ecophysiological monitoring of human population health are the important approach to RA. These criteria should conjugate with LCA of various industrial and agricultural products. Given fundamentals and approaches are needed for areas where traditional pollutants (heavy metals, pesticides, fertilizers, POPs etc) are enforced sharply by radioactive pollution. For RA of these complex pollutants, the methods of human adaptability to a polluted environment have been carried out. These techniques include biogeochemical, ecotoxicological, and ecophysiological analyses of risk factors as well as quantitative analysis of uncertainties using expert-modeling systems. Furthermore, the modern statistical methods are used for quantitative assessment of human adaptability to radioactive and nonradioactive pollutants. The results obtained in Chernobyl regions show the acceptability of these methods for risk assessment

  1. Integrated risk assessment for the natomas basin (California) analysis of loss of life and emergency management for floods

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonkman, S.N.; Hiel, L.A.; Bea, R.G.; Foster, H.; Tsioulou, A.; Arroyo, P.; Stallard, T.; Harris, L.

    2012-01-01

    This article assesses the risk to life for the Natomas Basin, a low-lying, rapidly urbanizing region in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta in California. Using an empirical method, the loss of life is determined for a flood (high water), seismic, and sunny-day levee breach scenario. The analysis

  2. Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.

  3. Risk assessments ensure safer power

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1982-02-19

    A growth industry is emerging devoted to the study and comparison of the economic, social and health risks posed by large industrial installations. Electricity generation is one area coming under particularly close scrutiny. Types of risk, ways of assessing risk and the difference between experts' analyses and the public perception of risk are given. An example of improved risk assessment helping to reduce deaths and injuries in coal mining is included.

  4. GIS risk analysis of hazardous materials transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anders, C.; Olsten, J.

    1991-01-01

    The Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to assess the risks and vulnerability of transporting hazardous materials and wastes (such as gasoline, explosives, poisons, etc) on the Arizona highway system. This paper discusses the methodology that was utilized, and the application of GIS systems to risk analysis problems

  5. Managing industrial risk--having a tested and proven system to prevent and assess risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heller, Stephen

    2006-03-17

    Some relatively easy techniques exist to improve the risk picture/profile to aid in preventing losses. Today with the advent of computer system resources, focusing on specific aspects of risk through systematic scoring and comparison, the risk analysis can be relatively easy to achieve. Techniques like these demonstrate how working experience and common sense can be combined mathematically into a flexible risk management tool or risk model for analyzing risk. The risk assessment methodology provided by companies today is no longer the ideas and practices of one group or even one company. It is reflective of the practice of many companies, as well as the ideas and expertise of academia and government regulators. The use of multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) techniques for making critical decisions has been recognized for many years for a variety of purposes. In today's computer age, the easy accessing and user-friendly nature for using these techniques, makes them a favorable choice for use in the risk assessment environment. The new user of these methodologies should find many ideas directly applicable to his or her needs when approaching risk decision making. The user should find their ideas readily adapted, with slight modification, to accurately reflect a specific situation using MCDM techniques. This makes them an attractive feature for use in assessment and risk modeling. The main advantage of decision making techniques, such as MCDM, is that in the early stages of a risk assessment, accurate data on industrial risk, and failures are lacking. In most cases, it is still insufficient to perform a thorough risk assessment using purely statistical concepts. The practical advantages towards deviating from strict data-driven protocol seem to outweigh the drawbacks. Industry failure data often comes at a high cost when a loss occurs. We can benefit from this unfortunate acquisition of data through the continuous refining of our decisions by incorporating this new

  6. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

    2016-04-01

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  7. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

    2016-01-01

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  8. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy, E-mail: gasandylang@live.com; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Diponegoro University, Semarang (Indonesia); Kim, Seon Jin [Department of Mechanical & Automotive Engineering of Pukyong National University (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-04-19

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  9. Multiple Sclerosis Increases Fracture Risk: A Meta-Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guixian Dong

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. The association between multiple sclerosis (MS and fracture risk has been reported, but results of previous studies remain controversial and ambiguous. To assess the association between MS and fracture risk, a meta-analysis was performed. Method. Based on comprehensive searches of the PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science, we identified outcome data from all articles estimating the association between MS and fracture risk. The pooled risk ratios (RRs with 95% confidence intervals (CIs were calculated. Results. A significant association between MS and fracture risk was found. This result remained statistically significant when the adjusted RRs were combined. Subgroup analysis stratified by the site of fracture suggested significant associations between MS and tibia fracture risk, femur fracture risk, hip fracture risk, pelvis fracture risk, vertebrae fracture risk, and humerus fracture risk. In the subgroup analysis by gender, female MS patients had increased fracture risk. When stratified by history of drug use, use of antidepressants, hypnotics/anxiolytics, anticonvulsants, and glucocorticoids increased the risk of fracture risk in MS patients. Conclusions. This meta-analysis demonstrated that MS was significantly associated with fracture risk.

  10. BBN-Based Portfolio Risk Assessment for NASA Technology R&D Outcome

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geuther, Steven C.; Shih, Ann T.

    2016-01-01

    The NASA Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) vision falls into six strategic thrusts that are aimed to support the challenges of the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). In order to achieve the goals of the ARMD vision, the Airspace Operations and Safety Program (AOSP) is committed to developing and delivering new technologies. To meet the dual challenges of constrained resources and timely technology delivery, program portfolio risk assessment is critical for communication and decision-making. This paper describes how Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) is applied to assess the probability of a technology meeting the expected outcome. The network takes into account the different risk factors of technology development and implementation phases. The use of BBNs allows for all technologies of projects in a program portfolio to be separately examined and compared. In addition, the technology interaction effects are modeled through the application of object-oriented BBNs. The paper discusses the development of simplified project risk BBNs and presents various risk results. The results presented include the probability of project risks not meeting success criteria, the risk drivers under uncertainty via sensitivity analysis, and what-if analysis. Finally, the paper shows how program portfolio risk can be assessed using risk results from BBNs of projects in the portfolio.

  11. Guidance Manual for Conducting Screening Level Ecological Risk Assessments at the INEL

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    R. L. VanHorn; N. L. Hampton; R. C. Morris

    1995-06-01

    This document presents reference material for conducting screening level ecological risk assessments (SLERAs)for the waste area groups (WAGs) at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory. Included in this document are discussions of the objectives of and processes for conducting SLERAs. The Environmental Protection Agency ecological risk assessment framework is closely followed. Guidance for site characterization, stressor characterization, ecological effects, pathways of contaminant migration, the conceptual site model, assessment endpoints, measurement endpoints, analysis guidance, and risk characterization are included.

  12. Usefulness of the risk assessment technique in solving transportation problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, J.F.; Hall, R.J.

    1976-08-01

    The purpose was to develop and use a model to assess the risk associated with the shipment of nuclear and non-nuclear hazardous energy-related materials. The analysis method comprises the steps of describing the system, identifying the release sequence, evaluating the sequence, and calculating and assessing the risk. Plutonium shipment is used as an example. Uses of this method to improve transportation safety are discussed. 12 fig

  13. Strategy for integrated CERCLA/NEPA risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MacDonell, M.M.; Haroun, L.A.; Peterson, J.M.; Blunt, D.A.; Fingleton, D.J.; Picel, M.H.

    1991-01-01

    The US Department of Energy (DOE) has established a policy whereby, for remedial actions, the procedural and documentational requirements of the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) are integrated with those of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA), as amended. However, the objectives of risk assessment under NEPA and CERCLA differ somewhat. Until its recent application at contaminated sites, NEPA analysis has typically been applied to impacts from taking actions at clean sites (e.g., for construction activities), and a somewhat loosely structured process has historically been used to estimate relative risks for NEPA analyses. Decisions such as cleanup levels were not made on the basis of the risk estimates, and they therefore tended to be conservative and were not discussed in detail. In contrast, risks estimated for Superfund (CERCLA) sites are used to focus the decision-making process for those sites and support national prioritization for cleanup, and the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has developed a detailed framework for preparing baseline health risk assessments for these sites. The purpose of this paper is to discuss issues related to intergrating the CERCLA and NEPA approaches into the risk assessments that have been prepared for a DOE remedial action project at the Weldon Spring site near St. Charles, Missouri. These issues are grouped into three basic categories: general assumptions for the impact evaluation, data management, and presentation of the methodology and results. This paper is not intended to represent DOE policy and guidance, nor does it represent the only approach that can be used for integrated risk assessments. It merely discusses the process that was used for the Weldon Spring project, articulating the issues that were encountered and how they were addressed

  14. Risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Liselotte; Rasmussen, Kirsten; Elsass, Peter

    2010-01-01

    International research suggests that using formalized risk assessment methods may improve the predictive validity of professionals' predictions of risk of future violence. This study presents data on forensic psychiatric patients discharged from a forensic unit in Denmark in year 2001-2002 (n=107...... and the individual dynamic items strengthen the use of this scheme in clinical practice. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved) (journal abstract)...

  15. Audit Risk Assessment in the Light of Current European Regulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ciprian-Costel Munteanu

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Recent European reforms on audit regulations have been motivated by efforts to increase audit quality, functioning and performance. We believe the adoption of Directive 2014/56 and Regulation 537/2014 strengthened the role of independent audit and risk committees, which will positively contribute towards audit quality. This paper aims to critically assess the status quo of audit risk assessment in current European standards and regulations, by conducting a theoretical analysis of different aspects of audit risk. Our main objective is to stress the importance of detecting inherent and control risk, which lead to material misstatement at the assertion level. They need to be assessed so as to determine the nature, timing and extent of further audit procedures necessary to obtain sufficient appropriate audit evidence. These pieces of evidence enable the auditor to express an opinion on the financial statements at an acceptably low level of audit risk. Therefore, we point to the fact that researchers as well as practitioners and policymakers have to be careful when using audit tools and assessing risk levels, as their conclusions continuously shape the regulations.

  16. Development of risk assessment methodology applicable to radioactive waste isolation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Campbell, J.E.; McGrath, P.E.; Cullingford, M.C.

    1978-01-01

    The risk from radioactive waste disposal in a deep geologic formation has not yet been completely assessed. A complete assessment should include credible estimates of the likelihood that radioactive materials would escape the repository and enter the human environment, and the magnitude of the resultant consequences in terms of human health effects. In addition, such an assessment should identify the dominant contributors to risk and, to the extent possible, quantify the uncertainties in risk estimates. A complete risk assessment may not be possible because of our limited knowledge of various aspects of geology and hydrogeology important to the long-term safety of a radioactive waste repository. The results of past analyses are not entirely consistent, perhaps as a direct result of the limited knowledge of the phenomena involved. It may, therefore, seem premature to attempt a rigorous risk analysis of radioactive waste disposal in deep, geologic media at the present time. However, the value of such analyses lies more in the insight and information they provide than in their prediction of absolute levels of risk

  17. Risk assessment analysis of the future technical unit dedicated to the evaluation and treatment of motor disabilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grelier, S; Thetio, M; Quentin, V; Achache, V; Sanchez, N; Leroux, V; Durand, E; Pequignot, R

    2011-03-01

    The National Hospital of Saint Maurice (HNSM) for Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation aims at strengthening its position as a pivot rehabilitation and physical therapy center. The opening in 2011 of a new unit for the evaluation and treatment of motor disabilities meets this objective. This project includes several parts: clinical, financial, architectural, organizational, applied clinical research as well as dealing with medical equipments and information system. This study focuses on the risk assessment of this future technical unit. This study was conducted by a group of professionals working for the hospital. It started with the design of a functional model to better comprehend the system to be analyzed. Risk assessment consists in confronting this functional model to a list of dangers in order to determine the vulnerable areas of the system. Then the team designed some scenarios to identify the causes, securities barriers and consequences in order to rank the risks. The analysis targeted various dangers, e.g. political, strategic, financial, economical, marketing, clinical and operational. The team identified more than 70 risky scenarios. For 75% of them the criticality level was deemed initially tolerable and under control or unacceptable. The implementation of an action plan for reducing the level of risks before opening this technical unit brought the system down to an acceptable level at 66%. A year prior to opening this technical unit for the evaluation and treatment of motor disabilities, conducting this preliminary risk assessment, with its exhaustive and rigorous methodology, enabled the concerned professionals to work together around an action plan for reducing the risks. 2011 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  18. Risk Analysis for Unintentional Slide Deployment During Airline Operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayra, Eduardo S; Insua, David Ríos; Castellanos, María Eugenia; Larbi, Lydia

    2015-09-01

    We present a risk analysis undertaken to mitigate problems in relation to the unintended deployment of slides under normal operations within a commercial airline. This type of incident entails relevant costs for the airline industry. After assessing the likelihood and severity of its consequences, we conclude that such risks need to be managed. We then evaluate the effectiveness of various countermeasures, describing and justifying the chosen ones. We also discuss several issues faced when implementing and communicating the proposed measures, thus fully illustrating the risk analysis process. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  19. Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... HRS Find a Specialist Share Twitter Facebook SCA Risk Assessment Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) occurs abruptly and without ... people of all ages and health conditions. Start Risk Assessment The Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment Tool ...

  20. Improving risk assessment by defining consistent and reliable system scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Mazzorana

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available During the entire procedure of risk assessment for hydrologic hazards, the selection of consistent and reliable scenarios, constructed in a strictly systematic way, is fundamental for the quality and reproducibility of the results. However, subjective assumptions on relevant impact variables such as sediment transport intensity on the system loading side and weak point response mechanisms repeatedly cause biases in the results, and consequently affect transparency and required quality standards. Furthermore, the system response of mitigation measures to extreme event loadings represents another key variable in hazard assessment, as well as the integral risk management including intervention planning. Formative Scenario Analysis, as a supplement to conventional risk assessment methods, is a technique to construct well-defined sets of assumptions to gain insight into a specific case and the potential system behaviour. By two case studies, carried out (1 to analyse sediment transport dynamics in a torrent section equipped with control measures, and (2 to identify hazards induced by woody debris transport at hydraulic weak points, the applicability of the Formative Scenario Analysis technique is presented. It is argued that during scenario planning in general and with respect to integral risk management in particular, Formative Scenario Analysis allows for the development of reliable and reproducible scenarios in order to design more specifically an application framework for the sustainable assessment of natural hazards impact. The overall aim is to optimise the hazard mapping and zoning procedure by methodologically integrating quantitative and qualitative knowledge.

  1. Is adaptation or transformation needed? Active nanomaterials and risk analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuzma, Jennifer; Roberts, John Patrick

    2016-07-01

    Nanotechnology has been a key area of funding and policy for the United States and globally for the past two decades. Since nanotechnology research and development became a focus and nanoproducts began to permeate the market, scholars and scientists have been concerned about how to assess the risks that they may pose to human health and the environment. The newest generation of nanomaterials includes biomolecules that can respond to and influence their environments, and there is a need to explore whether and how existing risk-analysis frameworks are challenged by such novelty. To fill this niche, we used a modified approach of upstream oversight assessment (UOA), a subset of anticipatory governance. We first selected case studies of "active nanomaterials," that are early in research and development and designed for use in multiple sectors, and then considered them under several, key risk-analysis frameworks. We found two ways in which the cases challenge the frameworks. The first category relates to how to assess risk under a narrow framing of the term (direct health and environmental harm), and the second involves the definition of what constitutes a "risk" worthy of assessment and consideration in decision making. In light of these challenges, we propose some changes for risk analysis in the face of active nanostructures in order to improve risk governance.

  2. Navigation safety and risk assessment challenges in the High North

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marchenko, N.A.; Borch, O.J.; Andreassen, N.

    2017-01-01

    marine accidents. Therefore, in this study a mostly qualitative analysis and expert judgement is the basis for the risk assessments. Implications for the emergency preparedness system of the region are discussed. The consequences of incidents depend on the incident type, scale and location,....... In this paper we look into the risks of accidents in the Atlantic Arctic based on previous ship accidents and the changes in maritime activity. The risk has to be assessed to ensure a proper level of response in emergency situations. As accidents are rare, there are limited statistics available for Arctic...

  3. Failure mode effect analysis and fault tree analysis as a combined methodology in risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wessiani, N. A.; Yoshio, F.

    2018-04-01

    There have been many studies reported the implementation of Failure Mode Effect Analysis (FMEA) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) as a method in risk management. However, most of the studies usually only choose one of these two methods in their risk management methodology. On the other side, combining these two methods will reduce the drawbacks of each methods when implemented separately. This paper aims to combine the methodology of FMEA and FTA in assessing risk. A case study in the metal company will illustrate how this methodology can be implemented. In the case study, this combined methodology will assess the internal risks that occur in the production process. Further, those internal risks should be mitigated based on their level of risks.

  4. A route-specific system for risk assessment of radioactive materials transportation accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moore, J.E.; Sandquist, G.M.; Slaughter, D.M.

    1995-01-01

    A low-cost, powerful geographic information system (GIS) that operates on a personal computer was integrated into a software system to provide route specific assessment of the risks associated with the atmospheric release of radioactive and hazardous materials in transportation accidents. The highway transportation risk assessment (HITRA) software system described here combines a commercially available GIS (TransCAD) with appropriate models and data files for route- and accident-specific factors, such as meteorology, dispersion, demography, and health effects to permit detailed analysis of transportation risk assessment. The HITRA system allows a user to interactively select a highway or railroad route from a GIS database of major US transportation routes. A route-specific risk assessment is then performed to estimate downwind release concentrations and the resulting potential health effects imposed on the exposed population under local environmental and temporal conditions. The integration of GIS technology with current risk assessment methodology permits detailed analysis coupled with enhanced user interaction. Furthermore, HITRA provides flexibility and documentation for route planning, updating and improving the databases required for evaluating specific transportation routes, changing meteorological and environmental conditions, and local demographics

  5. Standardised risk analysis as a communication tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pluess, Ch.; Montanarini, M.; Bernauer, M.

    1998-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: several European countries require a risk analysis for the production, storage or transport a dangerous goods. This requirement imposes considerable administrative effort for some sectors of the industry. In order to minimize the effort of such studies, a generic risk analysis for an industrial sector proved to help. Standardised procedures can consequently be derived for efficient performance of the risk investigations. This procedure was successfully established in Switzerland for natural gas transmission lines and fossil fuel storage plants. The development process of the generic risk analysis involved an intense discussion between industry and authorities about methodology of assessment and the criteria of acceptance. This process finally led to scientific consistent modelling tools for risk analysis and to an improved communication from the industry to the authorities and the public. As a recent example, the Holland-Italy natural gas transmission pipeline is demonstrated, where this method was successfully employed. Although this pipeline traverses densely populated areas in Switzerland, using this established communication method, the risk problems could be solved without delaying the planning process. (authors)

  6. Assessing natural hazards in forestry for risk management: a review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marc Hanewinkel; Susan Hummel; Axel Albrecht

    2011-01-01

    We address the problem of how to integrate risk assessment into forest management and therefore provide a comprehensive review of recent and past literature on risk analysis and modeling and, moreover, an evaluation and summary on these papers. We provide a general scheme on how to integrate concepts of risk into forest management decisions. After an overview of the...

  7. New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skandamis, Panagiotis N.; Andritsos, Nikolaos; Psomas, Antonios; Paramythiotis, Spyridon

    2015-01-01

    The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total ‘failure’ that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user

  8. New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Skandamis, Panagiotis N., E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Andritsos, Nikolaos, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Psomas, Antonios, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Paramythiotis, Spyridon, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr [Laboratory of Food Quality Control and Hygiene, Department of Food Science and Technology, Agricultural University of Athens, Iera Odos 75, 118 55, Athens (Greece)

    2015-01-22

    The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total ‘failure’ that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user

  9. New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skandamis, Panagiotis N.; Andritsos, Nikolaos; Psomas, Antonios; Paramythiotis, Spyridon

    2015-01-01

    The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total `failure' that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user-friendly softwares

  10. Assessing the risk of nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Letourneau, E.G.; McCullough, R.S.; Meyerhof, D.P.; Somers, E.; Waight, P.J.

    1981-01-01

    The current concern with diminishing supplies of non-renewable energy has brought into clearer focus the debate on the future of nuclear energy. Application of the risk assessment process to the biological effects of radiation is considered worthwhile so that the nature and order of the hazards entailed can be appreciated in the total context of the problem. The derivation of regulations and the process of cost-risk-benefit analysis are also discussed. In view of the widespread public concern and, on occasion, apprehension about the development of nuclear energy it has been thought useful to tabulate the elements of this concern so as to gain a fuller understanding of the manner in which the public perceives and weighs risks. (author)

  11. C-Band Airport Surface Communications System Engineering-Initial High-Level Safety Risk Assessment and Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zelkin, Natalie; Henriksen, Stephen

    2011-01-01

    This document is being provided as part of ITT's NASA Glenn Research Center Aerospace Communication Systems Technical Support (ACSTS) contract: "New ATM Requirements--Future Communications, C-Band and L-Band Communications Standard Development." ITT has completed a safety hazard analysis providing a preliminary safety assessment for the proposed C-band (5091- to 5150-MHz) airport surface communication system. The assessment was performed following the guidelines outlined in the Federal Aviation Administration Safety Risk Management Guidance for System Acquisitions document. The safety analysis did not identify any hazards with an unacceptable risk, though a number of hazards with a medium risk were documented. This effort represents an initial high-level safety hazard analysis and notes the triggers for risk reassessment. A detailed safety hazards analysis is recommended as a follow-on activity to assess particular components of the C-band communication system after the profile is finalized and system rollout timing is determined. A security risk assessment has been performed by NASA as a parallel activity. While safety analysis is concerned with a prevention of accidental errors and failures, the security threat analysis focuses on deliberate attacks. Both processes identify the events that affect operation of the system; and from a safety perspective the security threats may present safety risks.

  12. A big data analysis approach for rail failure risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jamshidi, A.; Faghih Roohi, S.; Hajizadeh, S.; Nunez Vicencio, Alfredo; Babuska, R.; Dollevoet, R.P.B.J.; Li, Z.; De Schutter, B.H.K.

    2017-01-01

    Railway infrastructure monitoring is a vital task to ensure rail transportation safety. A rail failure could result in not only a considerable impact on train delays and maintenance costs, but also on safety of passengers. In this article, the aim is to assess the risk of a rail failure by

  13. EPRI nuclear fuel-cycle accident risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1981-01-01

    The present results of the nuclear fuel-cycle accident risk assessment conducted by the Electric Power Research Institute show that the total risk contribution of the nuclear fuel cycle is only approx. 1% of the accident risk of the power plant; hence, with little error, the accident risk of nuclear electric power is essentially that of the power plant itself. The power-plant risk, assuming a very large usage of nuclear power by the year 2005 is only approx. 0.5% of the radiological risk of natural background. The smallness of the fuel-cycle risk relative to the power-plant risk may be attributed to the lack of internal energy to drive an accident and the small amount of dispersible material. This work aims at a realistic assessment of the process hazards, the effectiveness of confinement and mitigation systems and procedures, and the associated likelihood of errors and the estimated size of errors. The primary probabilistic estimation tool is fault-tree analysis, with the release source terms calculated using physicochemical processes. Doses and health effects are calculated with CRAC (Consequences of Reactor Accident Code). No evacuation or mitigation is considered; source terms may be conservative through the assumption of high fuel burnup (40,000 MWd/t) and short cooling period (90 to 150 d); high-efficiency particulate air filter efficiencies are derived from experiments

  14. Quantitative analysis and health risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in edible vegetable oils marketed in Shandong of China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Dafeng; Xin, Chenglong; Li, Wei; Chen, Jindong; Li, Fenghua; Chu, Zunhua; Xiao, Peirui; Shao, Lijun

    2015-09-01

    This work studies on the quantitative analysis and health risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in edible vegetable oils in Shandong, China. The concentrations of 15 PAHs in 242 samples were determined by high performance liquid chromatography coupled with fluorescence detection. The results indicated that the mean concentration of 15 PAHs in oil samples was 54.37 μg kg(-1). Low molecular weight PAH compounds were the predominant contamination. Especially, the carcinogenic benzo(a)pyrene (BaP) was detected at a mean concentration of 1.28 μg kg(-1), which was lower than the limit of European Union and China. A preliminary evaluation of human health risk assessment for PAHs was accomplished using BaP toxic equivalency factors and the incremental lifetime cancer risk (ILCR). The ILCR values for children, adolescents, adults, and seniors were all larger than 1 × 10(-6), indicating a high potential carcinogenic risk on the dietary exposed populations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. PROBABILITY SURVEYS , CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    Science.gov (United States)

    We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program, and conditional probability analysis can serve as a basis for estimating ecological risk over ...

  16. Assessing risk factors for periodontitis using regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lobo Pereira, J. A.; Ferreira, Maria Cristina; Oliveira, Teresa

    2013-10-01

    Multivariate statistical analysis is indispensable to assess the associations and interactions between different factors and the risk of periodontitis. Among others, regression analysis is a statistical technique widely used in healthcare to investigate and model the relationship between variables. In our work we study the impact of socio-demographic, medical and behavioral factors on periodontal health. Using regression, linear and logistic models, we can assess the relevance, as risk factors for periodontitis disease, of the following independent variables (IVs): Age, Gender, Diabetic Status, Education, Smoking status and Plaque Index. The multiple linear regression analysis model was built to evaluate the influence of IVs on mean Attachment Loss (AL). Thus, the regression coefficients along with respective p-values will be obtained as well as the respective p-values from the significance tests. The classification of a case (individual) adopted in the logistic model was the extent of the destruction of periodontal tissues defined by an Attachment Loss greater than or equal to 4 mm in 25% (AL≥4mm/≥25%) of sites surveyed. The association measures include the Odds Ratios together with the correspondent 95% confidence intervals.

  17. Using risk analysis in Health Impact Assessment: the impact of different relative risks for men and women in different socio-economic groups

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nilunger, Louise; Diderichsen, Finn; Burström, Bo

    2004-01-01

    The aim of this study is to contribute to the emerging field of quantification of Health Impact Assessment (HIA), by analysing how different relative risks affect the burden of disease for various socio-economic groups (SES). Risk analysis, utilising attributable and impact fraction, raises several...... methodological considerations. The present study illustrates this by measuring the impact of changed distribution levels of smoking on lung cancer, ischemic heart disease (IHD), chronic obstructive lung disorder (COLD) and stroke for the highest and lowest socio-economic groups measured in disability adjusted...... the highest and lowest socio-economic groups may decrease by 75% or increase by 21% depending on the size of the relative risk. Assuming the same smoking prevalence for the lowest socio-economic group as for the highest (impact fraction), then the inequality may decrease by 7-26%. Consequently, the size...

  18. Evaluation of safety assessment methodologies in Rocky Flats Risk Assessment Guide (1985) and Building 707 Final Safety Analysis Report (1987)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walsh, B.; Fisher, C.; Zigler, G.; Clark, R.A.

    1990-01-01

    FSARs. Rockwell International, as operating contractor at the Rocky Flats plant, conducted a safety analysis program during the 1980s. That effort resulted in Final Safety Analysis Reports (FSARs) for several buildings, one of them being the Building 707 Final Safety Analysis Report, June 87 (707FSAR) and a Plant Safety Analysis Report. Rocky Flats Risk Assessment Guide, March 1985 (RFRAG85) documents the methodologies that were used for those FSARs. Resources available for preparation of those Rocky Flats FSARs were very limited. After addressing the more pressing safety issues, some of which are described below, the present contractor (EG ampersand G) intends to conduct a program of upgrading the FSARs. This report presents the results of a review of the methodologies described in RFRAG85 and 707FSAR and contains suggestions that might be incorporated into the methodology for the FSAR upgrade effort

  19. Risk assessment and optimization (ALARA) analysis for the environmental remediation of Brookhaven National Laboratory's hazardous waste management facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dionne, B.J.; Morris, S. III; Baum, J.W.

    1998-03-01

    The Department of Energy's (DOE) Office of Environment, Safety, and Health (EH) sought examples of risk-based approaches to environmental restoration to include in their guidance for DOE nuclear facilities. Extensive measurements of radiological contamination in soil and ground water have been made at Brookhaven National Laboratory's Hazardous Waste Management Facility (HWMF) as part of a Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act (CERCLA) remediation process. This provided an ideal opportunity for a case study. This report provides a risk assessment and an open-quotes As Low as Reasonably Achievableclose quotes (ALARA) analysis for use at other DOE nuclear facilities as an example of a risk-based decision technique

  20. Uncertainty assessment of urban pluvial flood risk in a context of climate change adaptation decision making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Zhou, Qianqian

    2014-01-01

    uncertainty analysis, which can assess and quantify the overall uncertainty in relation to climate change adaptation to urban flash floods. The analysis is based on an uncertainty cascade that by means of Monte Carlo simulations of flood risk assessments incorporates climate change impacts as a key driver......There has been a significant increase in climatic extremes in many regions. In Central and Northern Europe, this has led to more frequent and more severe floods. Along with improved flood modelling technologies this has enabled development of economic assessment of climate change adaptation...... to increasing urban flood risk. Assessment of adaptation strategies often requires a comprehensive risk-based economic analysis of current risk, drivers of change of risk over time, and measures to reduce the risk. However, such studies are often associated with large uncertainties. The uncertainties arise from...

  1. Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Health Professional Resources Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk Assessment of weight and health risk involves using ... risk for developing obesity-associated diseases or conditions. Risk Factors for Health Topics Associated With Obesity Along ...

  2. Determining cutoff distances for assessing risks from transportation accident radiation releases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sandquist, G.M.; Slaughter, D.M.; Kimura, C.Y.; Brumburgh, G.

    1995-01-01

    The transportation of radioactive materials throughout the United States and the world is a ubiquitous and sometimes controversial activity. Almost universally, these transportation activities have been performed without major incident, and the safety record for transportation of radioactive material is outstanding compared with the transportation of other hazardous materials. Nevertheless, concerns still exist regarding adequate regulation of radioactive material transportation and accurate assessment of the health risks associated with accidents. These concerns are addressed through certification by the cognizant regulatory authority over the transportation container or the performance of a transportation risk assessment. In a transportation risk assessment, accident situations are examined, frequencies are estimated, and consequences resulting from the accident are analyzed and evaluated for acceptance. A universal question with any transportation risk assessment that examines the radiological consequences from release accidents is, At what distance may the dispersion analysis be terminated? This paper examines cutoff distances and their consequences for assessing health risks from radiological transportation releases

  3. Information security risk analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Peltier, Thomas R

    2001-01-01

    Effective Risk AnalysisQualitative Risk AnalysisValue AnalysisOther Qualitative MethodsFacilitated Risk Analysis Process (FRAP)Other Uses of Qualitative Risk AnalysisCase StudyAppendix A: QuestionnaireAppendix B: Facilitated Risk Analysis Process FormsAppendix C: Business Impact Analysis FormsAppendix D: Sample of ReportAppendix E: Threat DefinitionsAppendix F: Other Risk Analysis OpinionsIndex

  4. Spent fuel pool risk analysis for the Dukovany NPP

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hust' ak, S.; Jaros, M.; Kubicek, J. [UJV Rez, a.s., Husinec-Rez (Czech Republic)

    2013-07-01

    UJV Rez, a.s. maintains a Living Probabilistic Safety Assessment (Living PSA) program for Dukovany Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) in the Czech Republic. This project has been established as a framework for activities related to risk assessment and to support for risk-informed decision making at this plant. The most extensively used PSA application at Dukovany NPP is risk monitoring of instantaneous (point-in-time) risk during plant operation, especially for the purpose of configuration risk management during plant scheduled outages to avoid risk significant configurations. The scope of PSA for Dukovany NPP includes also determination of a risk contribution from spent fuel pool (SFP) operation to provide recommendations for the prevention and mitigation of SFP accidents and to be applicable for configuration risk management. This paper describes the analysis of internal initiating events (IEs) in PSA for Dukovany NPP, which can contribute to the risk from SFP operation. The analysis of those IEs was done more thoroughly in the PSA for Dukovany NPP in order to be used in instantaneous risk monitoring. (orig.)

  5. Audit Risk Assessment in the Light of Current European Regulations

    OpenAIRE

    Ciprian-Costel Munteanu

    2015-01-01

    Recent European reforms on audit regulations have been motivated by efforts to increase audit quality, functioning and performance. We believe the adoption of Directive 2014/56 and Regulation 537/2014 strengthened the role of independent audit and risk committees, which will positively contribute towards audit quality. This paper aims to critically assess the status quo of audit risk assessment in current European standards and regulations, by conducting a theoretical analysis of different as...

  6. Development of an Automated Security Risk Assessment Methodology Tool for Critical Infrastructures.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jaeger, Calvin Dell; Roehrig, Nathaniel S.; Torres, Teresa M.

    2008-12-01

    This document presents the security automated Risk Assessment Methodology (RAM) prototype tool developed by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). This work leverages SNL's capabilities and skills in security risk analysis and the development of vulnerability assessment/risk assessment methodologies to develop an automated prototype security RAM tool for critical infrastructures (RAM-CITM). The prototype automated RAM tool provides a user-friendly, systematic, and comprehensive risk-based tool to assist CI sector and security professionals in assessing and managing security risk from malevolent threats. The current tool is structured on the basic RAM framework developed by SNL. It is envisioned that this prototype tool will be adapted to meet the requirements of different CI sectors and thereby provide additional capabilities.

  7. ANALYSIS METHODS OF BANKRUPTCY RISK IN ROMANIAN ENERGY MINING INDUSTRY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CORICI MARIAN CATALIN

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The study is an analysis of bankruptcy risk and assessing the economic performance of the entity in charge of energy mining industry from southwest region. The scientific activity assesses the risk of bankruptcy using score’s method and some indicators witch reflecting the results obtained and elements from organization balance sheet involved in mining and energy which contributes to the stability of the national energy system. Analysis undertaken is focused on the application of the business organization models that allow a comprehensive assessment of the risk of bankruptcy and be an instrument of its forecast. In this study will be highlighted developments bankruptcy risk within the organization through the Altman model and Conan-Holder model in order to show a versatile image on the organization's ability to ensure business continuity

  8. Hydrologic Extremes and Risk Assessment under Non-stationarity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mondal, A.

    2015-12-01

    In the context of hydrologic designs, robust assessment and communication of risk is crucial to ascertain a sustainable water future. Traditional methods for defining return period, risk or reliability assumes a stationary regime which may no longer be valid because of natural or man-made changes. Reformulations are suggested in recent literature to account for non-stationarity in the definition of hydrologic risk, as time evolves. This study presents a comparative analysis of design levels under non-stationarity based on time varying annual exceedance probabilities, waiting time of a hazardous event, number of hazardous events and probability of failure. A case study application is shown for peak streamflow in the flood-prone delta area of the Krishna River in India where an increasing trend in annual maximum flows are observed owing to persistent silting. Considerable disagreement is found between the design magnitudes of flood obtained by the different definitions of hydrologic risk. Such risk is also found to be highly sensitive to the assumed design life period and projections of trend in that period or beyond. Additionally, some critical points on the assumption of a deterministic non-stationary model for an observed natural process are also discussed. The findings highlight the necessity for a unifying framework for assessment and communication of hydrologic risk under transient hydro-climatic conditions. The concepts can also be extended to other applications such as regional hydrologic frequency analysis or development of precipitation intensity-duration-frequency relationships for infrastructure design.

  9. Stress Analysis in Managing the Region’s Budget Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalya Pavlovna Pazdnikova

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The article addresses the implementation of budget risk management methods into the practices of governmental authorities. Drawing on the example of a particular region the article aims to demonstrate the possible methods of budget risk management. The authors refine the existing approaches to the notion of risk in its relation to budget system by introducing the notion of “budget risk.” Here the focus is the risk of default of budget spending in full which causes underfunding of territories and decrease in quality of life in the region. The authors have particularized the classification of budget risks and grouped together the criteria and factors which significantly influence the assessment and choice of method to manage budget risks. They hypothesize that budget risk is a financial risk. Therefore, the methods of financial risks management can be applied to budget risks management. The authors suggest a methodological approach to risk assessment based on correlation and regression analysis of program financing. The application of Kendall rank correlation coefficient allowed to assess the efficiency of budget spending on the implementation of state programs in Perm Krai. Two clusters — “Nature management and infrastructure” and “Public security” — turned out to be in the zone of high budget risk. The method of stress analysis, which consists in calculating Value at Risk (VaR, was applied to budget risks that in terms of probability are classified as critical. In order to assess risk as probability rate, the amount of Perm Krai deficit budget was calculated as induced variable from budget revenues and spending. The results demonstrate that contemporary management of public resources in the regions calls for the implementation of new management tools of higher quality and budget risk management is one of them.

  10. On the validation of risk analysis-A commentary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosqvist, Tony

    2010-01-01

    Aven and Heide (2009) [1] provided interesting views on the reliability and validation of risk analysis. The four validation criteria presented are contrasted with modelling features related to the relative frequency-based and Bayesian approaches to risk analysis. In this commentary I would like to bring forth some issues on validation that partly confirm and partly suggest changes in the interpretation of the introduced validation criteria-especially, in the context of low probability-high consequence systems. The mental model of an expert in assessing probabilities is argued to be a key notion in understanding the validation of a risk analysis.

  11. Integrated Risk-Capability Analysis under Deep Uncertainty : An ESDMA Approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pruyt, E.; Kwakkel, J.H.

    2012-01-01

    Integrated risk-capability analysis methodologies for dealing with increasing degrees of complexity and deep uncertainty are urgently needed in an ever more complex and uncertain world. Although scenario approaches, risk assessment methods, and capability analysis methods are used, few organizations

  12. Can systematic reviews inform GMO risk assessment and risk management?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian eKohl

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Systematic reviews represent powerful tools to identify, collect, synthesize and evaluate primary research data on specific research questions in a highly standardized and reproducible manner. They enable the defensible synthesis of outcomes by increasing precision and minimizing bias whilst ensuring transparency of the methods used. This makes them especially valuable to inform evidence-based risk analysis and decision making in various topics and research disciplines. Although seen as a gold standard for synthesizing primary research data, systematic reviews are not without limitations as they are often cost, labor and time intensive and the utility of synthesis outcomes depends upon the availability of sufficient and robust primary research data. In this paper we 1 consider the added value systematic reviews could provide when synthesizing primary research data on genetically modified organisms (GMO and 2 critically assess the adequacy and feasibility of systematic review for collating and analyzing data on potential impacts of GMOs in order to better inform specific steps within GMO risk assessment and risk management. The regulatory framework of the EU is used as an example, although the issues we discuss are likely to be more widely applicable.

  13. Can Systematic Reviews Inform GMO Risk Assessment and Risk Management?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohl, Christian; Frampton, Geoff; Sweet, Jeremy; Spök, Armin; Haddaway, Neal Robert; Wilhelm, Ralf; Unger, Stefan; Schiemann, Joachim

    2015-01-01

    Systematic reviews represent powerful tools to identify, collect, synthesize, and evaluate primary research data on specific research questions in a highly standardized and reproducible manner. They enable the defensible synthesis of outcomes by increasing precision and minimizing bias whilst ensuring transparency of the methods used. This makes them especially valuable to inform evidence-based risk analysis and decision making in various topics and research disciplines. Although seen as a "gold standard" for synthesizing primary research data, systematic reviews are not without limitations as they are often cost, labor and time intensive and the utility of synthesis outcomes depends upon the availability of sufficient and robust primary research data. In this paper, we (1) consider the added value systematic reviews could provide when synthesizing primary research data on genetically modified organisms (GMO) and (2) critically assess the adequacy and feasibility of systematic review for collating and analyzing data on potential impacts of GMOs in order to better inform specific steps within GMO risk assessment and risk management. The regulatory framework of the EU is used as an example, although the issues we discuss are likely to be more widely applicable.

  14. [Modular risk analysis for assessing multiple waste sites]: Proceedings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Whelan, G.

    1994-01-01

    This document contains proceedings from the Integrated Planning Workshop from Strategic Planning to Baselining and Other Objectives. Topics discussed include: stakeholder involvement; regulations; future site use planning; site integration and baseline methods; risk analysis in decision making; land uses; and economics in decision making. Individual records have been processed separately for the database

  15. Integrated societal risk assessment framework for nuclear power and renewable energy sources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sang Hun Lee

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Recently, the estimation of the social cost of energy sources has been emphasized as various novel energy options become feasible in addition to conventional ones. In particular, the social cost of introducing measures to protect power-distribution systems from power-source instability and the cost of accident-risk response for various power sources must be investigated. To account for these risk factors, an integrated societal risk assessment framework, based on power-uncertainty analysis and accident-consequence analysis, is proposed. In this study, we applied the proposed framework to nuclear power plants, solar photovoltaic systems, and wind-turbine generators. The required capacity of gas-turbine power plants to be used as backup power facilities to compensate for fluctuations in the power output from the main power source was estimated based on the performance indicators of each power source. The average individual health risk per terawatt-hours (TWh of electricity produced by each power source was quantitatively estimated by assessing accident frequency and the consequences of specific accident scenarios based on the probabilistic risk assessment methodology. This study is expected to provide insight into integrated societal risk analysis, and can be used to estimate the social cost of various power sources.

  16. Design concept of CSRAS (Cyber Security Risk Analysis and Assessment System) for digital I and C systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Song, J. G.; Lee, J. W.; Lee, D. Y.; Lee, C. K.

    2012-01-01

    The instrumentation and control (I and C) systems in nuclear power plants (NPPs) have been digitalized recently. Hence, cyber security becomes an important feature to be incorporated into the I and C systems. The Regulatory Guide 5.71 published by U.C NRC in 2010 presents a comprehensive set of security controls for the cyber security of I and C systems in NPPs. However, the application of security controls specified in the RG 5.71 in a specific I and C system still requires many analysis efforts based on the understanding of the security controls, since the guideline does not provide the details to system designers or developers regarding what, where, and how to apply the security controls. To apply security controls to I and C systems, cyber security requirements should be identified based on the cyber security policy and program, then the design and implementation of security controls should be performed along with the I and C system development life cycle. It can be assumed that cyber security requirements are identified during the system design(SD) phase and the design and implementation of security controls is performed during the component design(CD) phase. When identifying security requirements and performing the design and implementation of security controls, cyber security risk assessments should be processed with the understanding of the characteristics of target systems. In this study, the Cyber Security Risk Analysis and Assessment System (CSRAS) has been developed as a tool for analyzing security requirements and technical security controls considering based on a general cyber security risk assessment procedure with the consideration of the characteristics of I and C systems and the development phases

  17. Design concept of CSRAS (Cyber Security Risk Analysis and Assessment System) for digital I and C systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Song, J. G.; Lee, J. W.; Lee, D. Y.; Lee, C. K. [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2012-10-15

    The instrumentation and control (I and C) systems in nuclear power plants (NPPs) have been digitalized recently. Hence, cyber security becomes an important feature to be incorporated into the I and C systems. The Regulatory Guide 5.71 published by U.C NRC in 2010 presents a comprehensive set of security controls for the cyber security of I and C systems in NPPs. However, the application of security controls specified in the RG 5.71 in a specific I and C system still requires many analysis efforts based on the understanding of the security controls, since the guideline does not provide the details to system designers or developers regarding what, where, and how to apply the security controls. To apply security controls to I and C systems, cyber security requirements should be identified based on the cyber security policy and program, then the design and implementation of security controls should be performed along with the I and C system development life cycle. It can be assumed that cyber security requirements are identified during the system design(SD) phase and the design and implementation of security controls is performed during the component design(CD) phase. When identifying security requirements and performing the design and implementation of security controls, cyber security risk assessments should be processed with the understanding of the characteristics of target systems. In this study, the Cyber Security Risk Analysis and Assessment System (CSRAS) has been developed as a tool for analyzing security requirements and technical security controls considering based on a general cyber security risk assessment procedure with the consideration of the characteristics of I and C systems and the development phases.

  18. The issue of risk dilution in risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilmot, R.; Robinson, P.

    2004-01-01

    This paper explores an issue that was first highlighted more than 20 years ago during an inquiry concerning the Sizeweli B nuclear power station in the UK. In the probabilistic safety assessment for this plant, the proponent had apparently reduced its estimates of risk by admitting to increased uncertainty about the timing of certain events. This situation is counter-intuitive, since an increase in uncertainty about the factors contributing to safety would be expected to lead to less confidence and hence to greater risk. This paradoxical situation was termed 'risk dilution' and it has been a topic of interest to reviewers of safety cases since. The recent international peer review of the Yucca Mountain performance assessments concluded that there was a potential for risk dilution in the assumptions and calculations presented. The next section describes how assumptions about the timing of events and other aspects of an assessment may lead to risk dilution, and this is followed by two examples based on recent performance assessments. The final section discusses how potential problems can be identified in safety cases, and the types of response that a regulator might adopt as a result. (authors)

  19. The MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy: A Flexible Strategy for Efficient Information Collection and Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bos, Peter M J; Gottardo, Stefania; Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J; van Tongeren, Martie; Semenzin, Elena; Fernandes, Teresa F; Hristozov, Danail; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin; Hunt, Neil; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Landsiedel, Robert; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M; Sánchez Jiménez, Araceli; van Kesteren, Petra C E; Oomen, Agnes G

    2015-11-27

    An engineered nanomaterial (ENM) may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA) a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing) a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs) are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment) is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy.

  20. The MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy: A Flexible Strategy for Efficient Information Collection and Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter M. J. Bos

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available An engineered nanomaterial (ENM may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy.

  1. Seismic risk assessment and application in the central United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Z.

    2011-01-01

    Seismic risk is a somewhat subjective, but important, concept in earthquake engineering and other related decision-making. Another important concept that is closely related to seismic risk is seismic hazard. Although seismic hazard and seismic risk have often been used interchangeably, they are fundamentally different: seismic hazard describes the natural phenomenon or physical property of an earthquake, whereas seismic risk describes the probability of loss or damage that could be caused by a seismic hazard. The distinction between seismic hazard and seismic risk is of practical significance because measures for seismic hazard mitigation may differ from those for seismic risk reduction. Seismic risk assessment is a complicated process and starts with seismic hazard assessment. Although probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is the most widely used method for seismic hazard assessment, recent studies have found that PSHA is not scientifically valid. Use of PSHA will lead to (1) artifact estimates of seismic risk, (2) misleading use of the annual probability of exccedance (i.e., the probability of exceedance in one year) as a frequency (per year), and (3) numerical creation of extremely high ground motion. An alternative approach, which is similar to those used for flood and wind hazard assessments, has been proposed. ?? 2011 ASCE.

  2. Business risks, functions, methods of assessment and ways to reduce risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.V. Mihalchuk

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available For successful existence in a market economy entrepreneur have to take bold actions, and this increases the risk. The article describes the concept of entrepreneurship and business risk, positive and negative aspects of functions of risk in business. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the risk properly and be able to manage it to achieve the most effective results in the market. In market conditions the problem of assessing and accounting market becomes independent theoretical and practical significance as an important component of the theory and practice of management. Risk - a key element of business activities. Development of risk situations can lead to both the occurrence of adverse effects (losses, lost profits, and positive results for a company in the form of increased profit. This article describes: the concept of entrepreneurship, risk and business risks, characteristic of positive and negative aspects of risk functions in business, methods of assessment and risk reduction, shows formulae and examples you can use to assess risk in an enterprise. Analyzing already established methods of risk assessment a number of rules were proposed in order to reduce business risk.

  3. HTGR accident and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silady, F.A.; Everline, C.J.; Houghton, W.J.

    1982-01-01

    This paper is a synopsis of the high-temperature gas-cooled reactor probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) performed by General Atomic Company. Principal topics presented include: HTGR safety assessments, peer interfaces, safety research, process gas explosions, quantitative safety goals, licensing applications of PRA, enhanced safety, investment risk assessments, and PRA design integration

  4. Is adaptation or transformation needed? Active nanomaterials and risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuzma, Jennifer; Roberts, John Patrick

    2016-01-01

    Nanotechnology has been a key area of funding and policy for the United States and globally for the past two decades. Since nanotechnology research and development became a focus and nanoproducts began to permeate the market, scholars and scientists have been concerned about how to assess the risks that they may pose to human health and the environment. The newest generation of nanomaterials includes biomolecules that can respond to and influence their environments, and there is a need to explore whether and how existing risk-analysis frameworks are challenged by such novelty. To fill this niche, we used a modified approach of upstream oversight assessment (UOA), a subset of anticipatory governance. We first selected case studies of “active nanomaterials,” that are early in research and development and designed for use in multiple sectors, and then considered them under several, key risk-analysis frameworks. We found two ways in which the cases challenge the frameworks. The first category relates to how to assess risk under a narrow framing of the term (direct health and environmental harm), and the second involves the definition of what constitutes a “risk” worthy of assessment and consideration in decision making. In light of these challenges, we propose some changes for risk analysis in the face of active nanostructures in order to improve risk governance.

  5. Is adaptation or transformation needed? Active nanomaterials and risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kuzma, Jennifer, E-mail: jkuzma@ncsu.edu [North Carolina State University, School of Public and International Affairs and Genetic Engineering and Society Center (United States); Roberts, John Patrick [North Carolina State University, School of Public and International Affairs (United States)

    2016-07-15

    Nanotechnology has been a key area of funding and policy for the United States and globally for the past two decades. Since nanotechnology research and development became a focus and nanoproducts began to permeate the market, scholars and scientists have been concerned about how to assess the risks that they may pose to human health and the environment. The newest generation of nanomaterials includes biomolecules that can respond to and influence their environments, and there is a need to explore whether and how existing risk-analysis frameworks are challenged by such novelty. To fill this niche, we used a modified approach of upstream oversight assessment (UOA), a subset of anticipatory governance. We first selected case studies of “active nanomaterials,” that are early in research and development and designed for use in multiple sectors, and then considered them under several, key risk-analysis frameworks. We found two ways in which the cases challenge the frameworks. The first category relates to how to assess risk under a narrow framing of the term (direct health and environmental harm), and the second involves the definition of what constitutes a “risk” worthy of assessment and consideration in decision making. In light of these challenges, we propose some changes for risk analysis in the face of active nanostructures in order to improve risk governance.

  6. Risk assessment and the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fisk, D.J.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change

  7. Risk assessment and the environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fisk, D J [Department of the Environment (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change.

  8. Incorporating the Technology Roadmap Uncertainties into the Project Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bonnema, B.E.

    2002-01-01

    This paper describes two methods, Technology Roadmapping and Project Risk Assessment, which were used to identify and manage the technical risks relating to the treatment of sodium bearing waste at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory. The waste treatment technology under consideration was Direct Vitrification. The primary objective of the Technology Roadmap is to identify technical data uncertainties for the technologies involved and to prioritize the testing or development studies to fill the data gaps. Similarly, project management's objective for a multi-million dollar construction project includes managing all the key risks in accordance to DOE O 413.3 - ''Program and Project Management for the Acquisition of Capital Assets.'' In the early stages, the Project Risk Assessment is based upon a qualitative analysis for each risk's probability and consequence. In order to clearly prioritize the work to resolve the technical issues identified in the Technology Roadmap, the issues must be cross- referenced to the project's Risk Assessment. This will enable the project to get the best value for the cost to mitigate the risks

  9. Prediction of Maintenance Period of Equipment Through Risk Assessment of Thermal Power Plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Song, Gee Wook; Kim, Bum Shin; Choi, Woo Song; Park, Myung Soo [KEPCO Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-10-15

    Risk-based inspection (RBI) is a well-known method that is used to optimize inspection activities based on risk analysis in order to identify the high-risk components of major facilities such as power plants. RBI, when implemented and maintained properly, improves plant reliability and safety while reducing unplanned outages and repair costs. Risk is given by the product of the probability of failure (Pof) and the consequence of failure (COF). A semi-quantitative method is generally used for risk assessment. Semi-quantitative risk assessment complements the low accuracy of qualitative risk assessment and the high expense and long calculation time of quantitative risk assessment. The first step of RB I is to identify important failure modes and causes in the equipment. Once these are defined, the Pof and COF can be assessed for each failure. During Pof and COF assessment, an effective inspection method and range can be easily found. In this paper, the calculation of the Pof is improved for accurate risk assessment. A modified semi-quantitative risk assessment was carried out for boiler facilities of thermal power plants, and the next maintenance schedules for the equipment were decided.

  10. Prediction of Maintenance Period of Equipment Through Risk Assessment of Thermal Power Plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Song, Gee Wook; Kim, Bum Shin; Choi, Woo Song; Park, Myung Soo

    2013-01-01

    Risk-based inspection (RBI) is a well-known method that is used to optimize inspection activities based on risk analysis in order to identify the high-risk components of major facilities such as power plants. RBI, when implemented and maintained properly, improves plant reliability and safety while reducing unplanned outages and repair costs. Risk is given by the product of the probability of failure (Pof) and the consequence of failure (COF). A semi-quantitative method is generally used for risk assessment. Semi-quantitative risk assessment complements the low accuracy of qualitative risk assessment and the high expense and long calculation time of quantitative risk assessment. The first step of RB I is to identify important failure modes and causes in the equipment. Once these are defined, the Pof and COF can be assessed for each failure. During Pof and COF assessment, an effective inspection method and range can be easily found. In this paper, the calculation of the Pof is improved for accurate risk assessment. A modified semi-quantitative risk assessment was carried out for boiler facilities of thermal power plants, and the next maintenance schedules for the equipment were decided

  11. Nuclear insurance risk assessment using risk-based methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wendland, W.G.

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents American Nuclear Insurers' (ANI's) and Mutual Atomic Energy Liability Underwriters' (MAELU's) process and experience for conducting nuclear insurance risk assessments using a risk-based methodology. The process is primarily qualitative and uses traditional insurance risk assessment methods and an approach developed under the auspices of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) in which ANI/MAELU is an active sponsor. This process assists ANI's technical resources in identifying where to look for insurance risk in an industry in which insurance exposure tends to be dynamic and nonactuarial. The process is an evolving one that also seeks to minimize the impact on insureds while maintaining a mutually agreeable risk tolerance

  12. Health risk assessment of heavy metals through the consumption of food crops fertilized by biosolids: A probabilistic-based analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hosseini Koupaie, E.; Eskicioglu, C.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • No potential health risk of land application of the regional biosolids. • More realistic risk assessment via probabilistic approach than that of deterministic. • Increasing the total hazard index with increasing fertilizer land application rate. • Significant effect of long-term biosolids land application of hazard index. • Greater contribution of rice ingestion than vegetable ingestion on hazard index. - Abstract: The objective of this study was to perform a probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) to assess the health risk of Cadmium (Cd), Copper (Cu), and Zinc (Zn) through the consumption of food crops grown on farm lands fertilized by biosolids. The risk analysis was conducted using 8 years of historical heavy metal data (2005–2013) of the municipal biosolids generated by a nearby treatment facility considering one-time and long-term biosolids land application scenarios for a range of 5–100 t/ha fertilizer application rate. The 95th percentile of the hazard index (HI) increased from 0.124 to 0.179 when the rate of fertilizer application increased from 5 to 100 t/ha at one-time biosolids land application. The HI at long-term biosolids land application was also found 1.3 and 1.9 times greater than that of one-time land application at fertilizer application rates of 5 and 100 t/ha, respectively. Rice ingestion had more contribution to the HI than vegetable ingestion. Cd and Cu were also found to have more contribution to the health risk associated to vegetable and rice ingestion, respectively. Results indicated no potential risk to the human health even at long-term biosolids land application scenario at 100 t/ha fertilizer application rate.

  13. Health risk assessment of heavy metals through the consumption of food crops fertilized by biosolids: A probabilistic-based analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hosseini Koupaie, E., E-mail: ehssan.hosseini.k@gmail.com; Eskicioglu, C., E-mail: cigdem.eskicioglu@ubc.ca

    2015-12-30

    Highlights: • No potential health risk of land application of the regional biosolids. • More realistic risk assessment via probabilistic approach than that of deterministic. • Increasing the total hazard index with increasing fertilizer land application rate. • Significant effect of long-term biosolids land application of hazard index. • Greater contribution of rice ingestion than vegetable ingestion on hazard index. - Abstract: The objective of this study was to perform a probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) to assess the health risk of Cadmium (Cd), Copper (Cu), and Zinc (Zn) through the consumption of food crops grown on farm lands fertilized by biosolids. The risk analysis was conducted using 8 years of historical heavy metal data (2005–2013) of the municipal biosolids generated by a nearby treatment facility considering one-time and long-term biosolids land application scenarios for a range of 5–100 t/ha fertilizer application rate. The 95th percentile of the hazard index (HI) increased from 0.124 to 0.179 when the rate of fertilizer application increased from 5 to 100 t/ha at one-time biosolids land application. The HI at long-term biosolids land application was also found 1.3 and 1.9 times greater than that of one-time land application at fertilizer application rates of 5 and 100 t/ha, respectively. Rice ingestion had more contribution to the HI than vegetable ingestion. Cd and Cu were also found to have more contribution to the health risk associated to vegetable and rice ingestion, respectively. Results indicated no potential risk to the human health even at long-term biosolids land application scenario at 100 t/ha fertilizer application rate.

  14. Probabilistic Causal Analysis for System Safety Risk Assessments in Commercial Air Transport

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luxhoj, James T.

    2003-01-01

    Aviation is one of the critical modes of our national transportation system. As such, it is essential that new technologies be continually developed to ensure that a safe mode of transportation becomes even safer in the future. The NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) is managing the development of new technologies and interventions aimed at reducing the fatal aviation accident rate by a factor of 5 by year 2007 and by a factor of 10 by year 2022. A portfolio assessment is currently being conducted to determine the projected impact that the new technologies and/or interventions may have on reducing aviation safety system risk. This paper reports on advanced risk analytics that combine the use of a human error taxonomy, probabilistic Bayesian Belief Networks, and case-based scenarios to assess a relative risk intensity metric. A sample case is used for illustrative purposes.

  15. Municipal solid waste management health risk assessment from air emissions for China by applying life cycle analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Hua; Nitivattananon, Vilas; Li, Peng

    2015-05-01

    This study is to quantify and objectively evaluate the extent of environmental health risks from three waste treatment options suggested by the national municipal solid waste management enhancing strategy (No [2011] 9 of the State Council, promulgated on 19 April 2011), which includes sanitary landfill, waste-to-energy incineration and compost, together with the material recovery facility through a case study in Zhangqiu City of China. It addresses potential chronic health risks from air emissions to residential receptors in the impacted area. It combines field survey, analogue survey, design documents and life cycle inventory methods in defining the source strength of chemicals of potential concern. The modelling of life cycle inventory and air dispersion is via integrated waste management(IWM)-2 and Screening Air Dispersion Model (Version 3.0) (SCREEN3). The health risk assessment is in accordance with United States Environmental Protection Agency guidance Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund (RAGS), Volume I: Human Health Evaluation Manual (Part F, Supplemental Guidance for Inhalation Risk Assessment). The exposure concentration is based on long-term exposure to the maximum ground level contaminant in air under the 'reasonable worst situation' emissions and then directly compared with reference for concentration and unit risk factor/cancer slope factor derived from the national air quality standard (for a conventional pollutant) and toxicological studies (for a specific pollutant). Results from this study suggest that the option of compost with material recovery facility treatment may pose less negative health impacts than other options; the sensitivity analysis shows that the landfill integrated waste management collection rate has a great influence on the impact results. Further investigation is needed to validate or challenge the findings of this study. © The Author(s) 2015.

  16. A risk assessment model based on fuzzy logic for electricity distribution system asset management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alireza Yazdani

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Electricity distribution systems are considered as the most critical sectors in countries because of the essentiality of power supplement security, socioeconomic security, and way of life. According to the central role of electricity distribution systems, risk analysis helps decision maker determine the most serious risk items to allocate the optimal amount of resources and time. Probability-impact (PI matrix is one of the most popular methods for assessment of the risks involved in the system. However, the traditional PI matrix is criticized for its inability to take into account the inherent uncertainty imposed by real-world systems. On the other hand, fuzzy sets are capable of handling the uncertainty. Thus, in this paper, fuzzy risk assessment model is developed in order to assess risk and management for electricity distribution system asset protection. Finally, a comparison analysis is conducted to show the effectiveness and the capability of the new risk assessment model.

  17. Risk assessment for halogenated solvents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Travis, C.C.

    1988-01-01

    A recent development in the cancer risk area is the advent of biologically based pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic models. These models allow for the incorporation of biological and mechanistic data into the risk assessment process. These advances will not only improve the risk assessment process for halogenated solvents but will stimulate and guide basic research in the biological area

  18. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: ETHYLENE OXIDE ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

  19. Causation in risk assessment and management: models, inference, biases, and a microbial risk-benefit case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, L A; Ricci, P F

    2005-04-01

    Causal inference of exposure-response relations from data is a challenging aspect of risk assessment with important implications for public and private risk management. Such inference, which is fundamentally empirical and based on exposure (or dose)-response models, seldom arises from a single set of data; rather, it requires integrating heterogeneous information from diverse sources and disciplines including epidemiology, toxicology, and cell and molecular biology. The causal aspects we discuss focus on these three aspects: drawing sound inferences about causal relations from one or more observational studies; addressing and resolving biases that can affect a single multivariate empirical exposure-response study; and applying the results from these considerations to the microbiological risk management of human health risks and benefits of a ban on antibiotic use in animals, in the context of banning enrofloxacin or macrolides, antibiotics used against bacterial illnesses in poultry, and the effects of such bans on changing the risk of human food-borne campylobacteriosis infections. The purposes of this paper are to describe novel causal methods for assessing empirical causation and inference; exemplify how to deal with biases that routinely arise in multivariate exposure- or dose-response modeling; and provide a simplified discussion of a case study of causal inference using microbial risk analysis as an example. The case study supports the conclusion that the human health benefits from a ban are unlikely to be greater than the excess human health risks that it could create, even when accounting for uncertainty. We conclude that quantitative causal analysis of risks is a preferable to qualitative assessments because it does not involve unjustified loss of information and is sound under the inferential use of risk results by management.

  20. Whither Risk Assessment: New Challenges and Opportunities a Third of a Century After the Red Book.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenberg, Michael; Goldstein, Bernard D; Anderson, Elizabeth; Dourson, Michael; Landis, Wayne; North, D Warner

    2015-11-01

    Six multi-decade-long members of SRA reflect on the 1983 Red Book in order to examine the evolving relationship between risk assessment and risk management; the diffusion of risk assessment practice to risk areas such as homeland security and transportation; the quality of chemical risk databases; challenges from other groups to elements at the core of risk assessment practice; and our collective efforts to communicate risk assessment to a diverse set of critical groups that do not understand risk, risk assessment, or many other risk-related issues. The authors reflect on the 10 recommendations in the Red Book and present several pressing challenges for risk assessment practitioners. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  1. Ensuring the quality of occupational safety risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinto, Abel; Ribeiro, Rita A; Nunes, Isabel L

    2013-03-01

    In work environments, the main aim of occupational safety risk assessment (OSRA) is to improve the safety level of an installation or site by either preventing accidents and injuries or minimizing their consequences. To this end, it is of paramount importance to identify all sources of hazards and assess their potential to cause problems in the respective context. If the OSRA process is inadequate and/or not applied effectively, it results in an ineffective safety prevention program and inefficient use of resources. An appropriate OSRA is an essential component of the occupational safety risk management process in industries. In this article, we performed a survey to elicit the relative importance for identified OSRA tasks to enable an in-depth evaluation of the quality of risk assessments related to occupational safety aspects on industrial sites. The survey involved defining a questionnaire with the most important elements (tasks) for OSRA quality assessment, which was then presented to safety experts in the mining, electrical power production, transportation, and petrochemical industries. With this work, we expect to contribute to the main question of OSRA in industries: "What constitutes a good occupational safety risk assessment?" The results obtained from the questionnaire showed that experts agree with the proposed OSRA process decomposition in steps and tasks (taxonomy) and also with the importance of assigning weights to obtain knowledge about OSRA task relevance. The knowledge gained will enable us, in the near future, to build a framework to evaluate OSRA quality for industrial sites. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  2. APPROPRIATE ALLOCATION OF CONTINGENCY USING RISK ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andi Andi

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Many cost overruns in the world of construction are attributable to either unforeseen events or foreseen events for which uncertainty was not appropriately accommodated. It is argued that a significant improvement to project management performance may result from greater attention to the process of analyzing project risks. The objective of this paper is to propose a risk analysis methodology for appropriate allocation of contingency in project cost estimation. In the first step, project risks will be identified. Influence diagramming technique is employed to identify and to show how the risks affect the project cost elements and also the relationships among the risks themselves. The second step is to assess the project costs with regards to the risks under consideration. Using a linguistic approach, the degree of uncertainty of identified project risks is assessed and quantified. The problem of dependency between risks is taken into consideration during this analysis. For the final step, as the main purpose of this paper, a method for allocating appropriate contingency is presented. Two types of contingencies, i.e. project contingency and management reserve are proposed to accommodate the risks. An illustrative example is presented at the end to show the application of the methodology.

  3. RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES

    OpenAIRE

    Oksana G. Feoktistova; Igor K. Turkin; Sergey V. Barinov

    2017-01-01

    The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate pre...

  4. An abuse of risk assessment: how regulatory agencies improperly adopted LNT for cancer risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calabrese, Edward J

    2015-04-01

    The Genetics Panel of the National Academy of Sciences' Committee on Biological Effects of Atomic Radiation (BEAR) recommended the adoption of the linear dose-response model in 1956, abandoning the threshold dose-response for genetic risk assessments. This recommendation was quickly generalized to include somatic cells for cancer risk assessment and later was instrumental in the adoption of linearity for carcinogen risk assessment by the Environmental Protection Agency. The Genetics Panel failed to provide any scientific assessment to support this recommendation and refused to do so when later challenged by other leading scientists. Thus, the linearity model used in cancer risk assessment was based on ideology rather than science and originated with the recommendation of the NAS BEAR Committee Genetics Panel. Historical documentation in support of these conclusions is provided in the transcripts of the Panel meetings and in previously unexamined correspondence among Panel members.

  5. Comparison of a Traditional Probabilistic Risk Assessment Approach with Advanced Safety Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Curtis L; Mandelli, Diego; Zhegang Ma

    2014-11-01

    As part of the Light Water Sustainability Program (LWRS) [1], the purpose of the Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) [2] Pathway research and development (R&D) is to support plant decisions for risk-informed margin management with the aim to improve economics, reliability, and sustain safety of current NPPs. In this paper, we describe the RISMC analysis process illustrating how mechanistic and probabilistic approaches are combined in order to estimate a safety margin. We use the scenario of a “station blackout” (SBO) wherein offsite power and onsite power is lost, thereby causing a challenge to plant safety systems. We describe the RISMC approach, illustrate the station blackout modeling, and contrast this with traditional risk analysis modeling for this type of accident scenario. We also describe our approach we are using to represent advanced flooding analysis.

  6. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

  7. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-01-01

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

  8. Risk indices in comparative risk assessment studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, P.

    1984-01-01

    More than a decade ago the development of comparative risk assessment studies aroused overwhelming interest. There was no doubt that data on the health and safety aspects of energy systems would greatly benefit, or even end, the debate on nuclear energy. Although such attempts are still strongly supported, the rose-coloured expectations of the early days have faded. The high uncertainties, and the contradictory aspect, of the first results might explain this evolution. The loose connection between the range of computed risk indices and the questions on which the debate was focused is another reason for this decline in interest. Important research work is being carried out aiming at reducing the different kinds of uncertainties. Rather than the uncertainties, the paper considers the meaning of available risk indices and proposes more significant indices with respect to the goals of risk assessment. First, the indices which are of frequent use in comparative studies are listed. The stress is put on a French comparative study from which most examples are drawn. Secondly, the increase in magnitude of the indices and the decrease in the attributability of the risk to a given system is shown to be a consequence of the trend towards more comprehensive analyses. Thirdly, the ambiguity of such indices as the collective occupational risk is underlined, and a possible solution is suggested. Whenever risk assessments are related to pragmatic decision making problems it is possible to find satisfactory risk indices. The development of cost-effectiveness analyses and the proposals for quantitative safety goals clearly demonstrate this point. In the field of comparison of social impacts some proposals are made, but there remain some gaps still to be filled. (author)

  9. An approach to assessing risk in coalbed methane prospect evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vanorsdale, C.R.

    1991-01-01

    The economic evaluation of drilling prospects requires assessing the degree of risk involved and its impact on reserve estimates. In developed areas, risk can be determined in a fairly straightforward manner. In remote wildcat areas, risk can almost never be adequately identified or quantified. Between these extremes lie complex reservoirs -- reservoirs to heterogeneous that each well drilled could exhibit production characteristics unlike those of its neighbors. This paper illustrates the use of a risk assessment methodology in a case study of Fruitland coal prospects in the San Juan Basin of New Mexico. This approach could be applied to coalbed methane prospects or any unconventional or highly heterogeneous reservoir with appropriate modification. The utility of this approach is made apparent in a graphical analysis that relates reserves, rate of return and payout time for managerial or financial presentation. This graphical technique and the underlying risk assessment were used to aid a conservative management team in evaluating participation in a multi-well coalbed project

  10. Computational Aspects of Dam Risk Analysis: Findings and Challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ignacio Escuder-Bueno

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, risk analysis techniques have proved to be a useful tool to inform dam safety management. This paper summarizes the outcomes of three themes related to dam risk analysis discussed in the Benchmark Workshops organized by the International Commission on Large Dams Technical Committee on “Computational Aspects of Analysis and Design of Dams.” In the 2011 Benchmark Workshop, estimation of the probability of failure of a gravity dam for the sliding failure mode was discussed. Next, in 2013, the discussion focused on the computational challenges of the estimation of consequences in dam risk analysis. Finally, in 2015, the probability of sliding and overtopping in an embankment was analyzed. These Benchmark Workshops have allowed a complete review of numerical aspects for dam risk analysis, showing that risk analysis methods are a very useful tool to analyze the risk of dam systems, including downstream consequence assessments and the uncertainty of structural models.

  11. Risk assessment of river-type hydropower plants using fuzzy logic approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kucukali, Serhat, E-mail: kucukali@cankaya.edu.tr [Civil Engineering Department, Cankaya University, Balgat 06530, Ankara (Turkey)

    2011-10-15

    In this paper, a fuzzy rating tool was developed for river-type hydropower plant projects, and risk assessment and expert judgments were utilized instead of probabilistic reasoning. The methodology is a multi-criteria decision analysis, which provides a flexible and easily understood way to analyze project risks. The external risks, which are partly under the control of companies, were considered in the model. A total of eleven classes of risk factors were determined based on the expert interviews, field studies and literature review as follows: site geology, land use, environmental issues, grid connection, social acceptance, macroeconomic, natural hazards, change of laws and regulations, terrorism, access to infrastructure and revenue. The relative importance of risk factors was determined from the survey results. The survey was conducted with the experts that have experience in the construction of river-type hydropower schemes. The survey results revealed that the site geology and environmental issues were considered as the most important risks. The new risk assessment method enabled a Risk Index (R) value to be calculated, establishing a 4-grade evaluation system. The proposed risk analysis will give investors a more rational basis to make decisions and it can prevent cost and schedule overruns. - Highlights: > A new methodology is proposed for risk rating of river-type hydropower plant projects. > The relative importance of the risk factors was determined from the expert judgments. > The most concerned risks have been found as environmental issues and site geology. > The proposed methodology was tested on a real case. > The proposed risk analysis will give investors a more rational basis.

  12. Risk assessment and optimization (ALARA) analysis for the environmental remediation of Brookhaven National Laboratory's hazardous waste management facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dionne, B.J.; Morris, S.C. III; Baum, J.W.

    1998-01-01

    The Department of Energy's (DOE) Office of Environment, Safety, and Health (EH) sought examples of risk-based approaches to environmental restoration to include in their guidance for DOE nuclear facilities. Extensive measurements of radiological contamination in soil and ground water have been made at Brookhaven National Laboratory's Hazardous Waste Management Facility (HWMF) as part of a Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act (CERCLA) remediation process. This provided an ideal opportunity for a case study. This report provides a risk assessment and an open-quotes As Low as Reasonably Achievableclose quotes (ALARA) analysis for use at other DOE nuclear facilities as an example of a risk-based decision technique. This document contains the Appendices for the report

  13. Feature extraction and selection for objective gait analysis and fall risk assessment by accelerometry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cremer Gerald

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Falls in the elderly is nowadays a major concern because of their consequences on elderly general health and moral states. Moreover, the aging of the population and the increasing life expectancy make the prediction of falls more and more important. The analysis presented in this article makes a first step in this direction providing a way to analyze gait and classify hospitalized elderly fallers and non-faller. This tool, based on an accelerometer network and signal processing, gives objective informations about the gait and does not need any special gait laboratory as optical analysis do. The tool is also simple to use by a non expert and can therefore be widely used on a large set of patients. Method A population of 20 hospitalized elderlies was asked to execute several classical clinical tests evaluating their risk of falling. They were also asked if they experienced any fall in the last 12 months. The accelerations of the limbs were recorded during the clinical tests with an accelerometer network distributed on the body. A total of 67 features were extracted from the accelerometric signal recorded during a simple 25 m walking test at comfort speed. A feature selection algorithm was used to select those able to classify subjects at risk and not at risk for several classification algorithms types. Results The results showed that several classification algorithms were able to discriminate people from the two groups of interest: fallers and non-fallers hospitalized elderlies. The classification performances of the used algorithms were compared. Moreover a subset of the 67 features was considered to be significantly different between the two groups using a t-test. Conclusions This study gives a method to classify a population of hospitalized elderlies in two groups: at risk of falling or not at risk based on accelerometric data. This is a first step to design a risk of falling assessment system that could be used to provide

  14. Regional Risk Assessment for the analysis of the risks related to storm surge extreme events in the coastal area of the North Adriatic Sea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rizzi, Jonathan; Torresan, Silvia; Gallina, Valentina; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

    2013-04-01

    Europe's coast faces a variety of climate change threats from extreme high tides, storm surges and rising sea levels. In particular, it is very likely that mean sea level rise will contribute to upward trends in extreme coastal high water levels, thus posing higher risks to coastal locations currently experiencing coastal erosion and inundation processes. In 2007 the European Commission approved the Flood Directive (2007/60/EC), which has the main purpose to establish a framework for the assessment and management of flood risks for inland and coastal areas, thus reducing the adverse consequences for human health, the environment, cultural heritage and economic activities. Improvements in scientific understanding are thus needed to inform decision-making about the best strategies for mitigating and managing storm surge risks in coastal areas. The CLIMDAT project is aimed at improving the understanding of the risks related to extreme storm surge events in the coastal area of the North Adriatic Sea (Italy), considering potential climate change scenarios. The project implements a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology developed in the FP7 KULTURisk project for the assessment of physical/environmental impacts posed by flood hazards and employs the DEcision support SYstem for Coastal climate change impact assessment (DESYCO) for the application of the methodology to the case study area. The proposed RRA methodology is aimed at the identification and prioritization of targets and areas at risk from water-related natural hazards in the considered region at the meso-scale. To this aim, it integrates information about extreme storm surges with bio-geophysical and socio-economic information (e.g. vegetation cover, slope, soil type, population density) of the analyzed receptors (i.e. people, economic activities, cultural heritages, natural and semi-natural systems). Extreme storm surge hazard scenarios are defined using tide gauge time series coming from 28 tide gauge

  15. Clean Slate transportation and human health risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1997-02-01

    Public concern regarding activities involving radioactive material generally focuses on the human health risk associated with exposure to ionizing radiation. This report describes the results of a risk analysis conducted to evaluate risk for excavation, handling, and transport of soil contaminated with transuranics at the Clean Slate sites. Transportation risks were estimated for public transport routes from the Tonopah Test Range (TTR) to the Envirocore disposal facility or to the Area 3 Radioactive Waste Management Site (RWMS) at the Nevada Test Site (NTS) for both radiological risk and risk due to traffic accidents. Human health risks were evaluated for occupational and radiation-related health effects to workers. This report was generated to respond to this public concern, to provide an evaluation of the risk, and to assess feasibility of transport of the contaminated soil for disposal

  16. Bioavailability in ecological risk. Assessment for radionuclides

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garnier-Laplace, J.; Gilbin, R.; Della-Vedova, C.; Adam, C.; Simon, O.; Denison, F.; Beaugelin, K.

    2005-01-01

    The guidance for performing Ecological Risk Assessments (ERA) in Europe has been published in 2003 in the EC's Technical Guidance Document. This document constitutes the official reference in which current water quality standards and risk assessment approach for metals/metalloids are still mainly based on total or dissolved concentrations. However, it has been recognized that accurate assessment of the bio-available metal fraction is crucial, even if the way to incorporate bioavailability into these procedures is still under discussion. The speciation of a pollutant in the exposure medium is the first factor that regulates its bioavailability and consequently its bioaccumulation and the induced biological effects. Therefore, within any ecological risk assessment, bioavailability has obvious implications: firstly in exposure analysis which aim is to determine Predicted Exposure Concentration (PEC); secondly in effect analysis while deriving the so-called Predicted No-Effect Concentrations (PNEC) as toxicity is often linked to the amount of the contaminant incorporated into the tissues of biota. Similarities between metals/metalloids and radionuclides are limited to the biogeochemical behaviour of the element considered and to the need to use bioavailability models. In addition, for radionuclides, emitted ionising radiations (type and energy) need to be taken into account for both exposure and effect analyses whilst performing dosimetric calculations appropriate to the exposure scenarios. A methodology for properly implementing bioavailability models is explained and illustrated for aqueous U(VI), starting from a comprehensive review of the thermodynamic data relevant to environmentally-realistic physico-chemical conditions. Then, the use of thermodynamic equilibrium modelling as a tool for interpreting the bioavailability of U(VI) is presented. Using a systematic approach, different bioavailability models of increasing complexity were tested to model U bio

  17. Risk assessment for produced water discharges to Louisiana Open Bays

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meinhold, A.F.; DePhillips, M.P.; Holtzman, S.

    1995-06-23

    Data were collected prior to termination of discharge at three sites (including two open bay sites at Delacroix Island and Bay De Chene) for the risk assessments. The Delacroix Island Oil and Gas Field has been in production since the first well drilling in 1940; the Bay De Chene Field, since 1942. Concentrations of 226Ra, 228Ra, 210Po, and 228Th were measured in discharges. Radium conc. were measured in fish and shellfish tissues. Sediment PAH and metal conc. were also available. Benthos sampling was conducted. A survey of fishermen was conducted. The tiered risk assessment showed that human health risks from radium in produced water appear to be small; ecological risk from radium and other radionuclides in produced water also appear small. Many of the chemical contaminants discharged to open Louisiana bays appear to present little human health or ecological risk. A conservative screening analysis suggested potential risks to human health from Hg and Pb and a potential risk to ecological receptors from total effluent, Sb, Cd, Cu, Pb, Ni, Ag, Zn, and phenol in the water column and PAHs in sediment; quantitiative risk assessments are being done for these contaminants.

  18. Perspectives and reconciliation of viewpoints on risk assessment issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, C.F.; Cohen, J.J.

    1980-01-01

    It is important to recognize the distinction between risk assessment and its components which include risk analysis, perspectives study, and decision analysis. Divergence of opinion within the scientific community as well as the public at large is a characteristic of issues related to nuclear power. The divergent opinions can largely be characterized as either optimistic or pessimistic in nature. Reconciliation of divergent viewpoints presents some difficult challenges. It is doubtful that issues which have an emotional or philosophical basis can be resolved through technical efforts. Public education on the technical issues might prove helpful

  19. The role of risk analysis in control of complex plants' safety operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dumitrescu, Maria; Preda, Irina Aida; Lazar, Roxana Elena; Carcadea, Elena

    1999-01-01

    The problem of risk estimation, assessment and control is necessary to be discussed at every decision level of an activity. In this way the performances of a system, action or technology are qualitatively assessed by indicating the possible consequences on environmental, people or property. The paper presents methodologies of risk assessment successfully applied on isotopic separation plants. The quantitative methodologies presented use fault tree and event tree to determine the accident states frequency and physical models to analyse the dispersion in atmosphere of dangerous substances. The qualitative methodologies use fuzzy models for the multi-criteria decision making, models based on risk matrix built on the basis of a combination between severity and probability of maximum admissible consequence. These methodologies present the following steps for applying: familiarising with the activity in study, establishing the adequate method of risk assessment, realising of the model of risk assessment for the activity or objective in study, developing of application of the proposed model. Applying this methodology to isotopic separation plants has led to: analysis of operation events and establishing of principal types of events potentially dangerous, analysis of human error in these plants operation and operating experience assessment, technical specifications optimisation by probabilistic safety assessment, reliability analysis and development of reliability and exploitation events database, post accident events analysis (releases, fires, explosions) and mathematical modelling of dispersion in atmosphere of dangerous substances. The risk concept being complex and with multiple implications, it is not the case of a rigid approaching neither of existence of some methods universally valid. Because of these reasons choosing of the most appropriate method for the risk assessment of an activity, leads to solution in due time, of some problems with economic, social

  20. The role of risk analysis in control of complex plant safe operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dumitrescu, Maria; Preda, Irina Aida; Lazar, Roxana Elena; Carcadea, Elena

    1999-01-01

    The problem of risk estimation assessment and control is necessary to be discussed in every decision making level of an activity. Performances of a system, action or technology, by indicating the possible consequences on environment, people or property should be qualitatively assessed. The paper presents methodologies of risk assessment successful applied on isotopic separation plants. The quantitative methodologies presented, use fault tree and event tree to determine the accident states frequency, physical models to analyse the dispersion in atmosphere of dangerous substances. The qualitative methodologies use the fuzzy models for the multicriterial decision making, models based on risk matrix build on the base of combination between the severity and the probability of maximum admissible consequence. These methodologies present the following steps for applying: familiarising with the activity in study, establishing the adequate method of risk assessment, building the model of risk assessment for the activity or objective in study, developing the applications of the proposed model. Applying this methodology to isotopic separation plants have led to: analysis of operation events and establishing of principal types of events potentially dangerous, analysis of human error in these plant operations and operating experience assessment, technical specifications for optimisation by probabilistic safety assessment, reliability analysis and development of reliability and exploitation of events database, post accident events analysis (releases, fires, explosions) and mathematical modelling of dispersion in atmosphere of dangerous substances. The risk concept being complex and with multiple implications, is not the case of a rigid approaching neither of existence of some methods universally valid. Because of these reasons, choosing of the most appropriate method for the risk assessment of an activity, leads to a solution in useful time, of some problems with economic, social

  1. Chlorine transportation risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lautkaski, Risto; Mankamo, Tuomas.

    1977-02-01

    An assessment has been made on the toxication risk of the population due to the bulk rail transportation of liquid chlorine in Finland. Fourteen typical rail accidents were selected and their probability was estimated using the accident file of the Finnish State Railways. The probability of a chlorine leak was assessed for each type of accident separately using four leak size categories. The assessed leakage probability was dominated by station accidents, especially by collisions of a chlorine tanker and a locomotive. Toxication hazard areas were estimated for the leak categories. A simple model was constructed to describe the centring of the densely populated areas along the railway line. A comparison was made between the obtained risk and some other risks including those due to nuclear reactor accidents. (author)

  2. Common approach of risks analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noviello, L.; Naviglio, A.

    1996-01-01

    Although, following the resolutions of the High German Court, the protection level of the human beings is an objective which can change in time, it is obvious that it is an important point when there is a risk for the population. This is true more particularly for the industrial plants whose possible accidents could affect the population. The accidents risk analysis indicates that there is no conceptual difference between the risks of a nuclear power plant and those of the other industrial plants as chemical plants, the gas distribution system and the hydraulic dams. A legislation analysis induced by the Seveso Directive for the industrial risks give some important indications which should always be followed. This work analyses more particularly the legislative situation in different European countries and identifies some of the most important characteristics. Indeed, for most of the countries, the situation is different and it is a later difficulties source for nuclear power plants. In order to strengthen this reasoning, this paper presents some preliminary results of an analysis of a nuclear power plant following the approach of other industrial plants. In conclusion, it will be necessary to analyse again the risks assessment approach for nuclear power plants because the real protection level of human beings in a country is determined by the less regulated of the dangerous industrial plants existing at the surroundings. (O.M.)

  3. State review United States of America. Risks and risk assessment according to the law of the United States of America

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feldmann, F.J.

    1980-01-01

    In the chapter 'Risk Assessment in Atomic Energy Law of the United States' of this report you find among other things the Atomic Energy Act, the approval conditions, General Design Criteria for Nuclear Power Plants, the defense-in-depth concept, probabilistic safety studies, probabilistic probability assessments in the case of external influences onto nuclear power plants, quantitative analyses of the consequences of conceivable accidents, reduction of radiation exposure, the National Environmental Policy Act, the environmental compatibility declaration, the so-called residual risk under the environmental aspect, the classification of the accidents into 9 types, new developments concerning accident analysis, effects of the nuclear fuel cycle on environment, indicial decisions. The chapter about 'Risk Assessment in Civil Law, Criminal Law and Law on Protection of the Environment', deals among other things with the Law on nuisance, the Clean Air Act, the Federal Environmental Pesticide Control Act. In 'Problems of the Cost-Efficiency-Analysis' the significance and purpose of this analysis, the availability of data and information, the monetary quantification of risks and costs, alternatives and the danger of misuse are illustrated. (HSCH) [de

  4. A Simplified Approach to Risk Assessment Based on System Dynamics: An Industrial Case Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garbolino, Emmanuel; Chery, Jean-Pierre; Guarnieri, Franck

    2016-01-01

    Seveso plants are complex sociotechnical systems, which makes it appropriate to support any risk assessment with a model of the system. However, more often than not, this step is only partially addressed, simplified, or avoided in safety reports. At the same time, investigations have shown that the complexity of industrial systems is frequently a factor in accidents, due to interactions between their technical, human, and organizational dimensions. In order to handle both this complexity and changes in the system over time, this article proposes an original and simplified qualitative risk evaluation method based on the system dynamics theory developed by Forrester in the early 1960s. The methodology supports the development of a dynamic risk assessment framework dedicated to industrial activities. It consists of 10 complementary steps grouped into two main activities: system dynamics modeling of the sociotechnical system and risk analysis. This system dynamics risk analysis is applied to a case study of a chemical plant and provides a way to assess the technological and organizational components of safety. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  5. Probabilistic risk assessment, Volume I

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1982-01-01

    This book contains 158 papers presented at the International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Risk Assessment held by the American Nuclear Society (ANS) and the European Nuclear Society (ENS) in Port Chester, New York in 1981. The meeting was second in a series of three. The main focus of the meeting was on the safety of light water reactors. The papers discuss safety goals and risk assessment. Quantitative safety goals, risk assessment in non-nuclear technologies, and operational experience and data base are also covered. Included is an address by Dr. Chauncey Starr

  6. Risk assessment in maritime transportation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soares, C. Guedes; Teixeira, A.P.

    2001-01-01

    A review is presented of different approaches to quantify the risk in maritime transportation. The discussion of several accident statistics provides a global assessment of the risk levels and its differentiation in ship types and main types of ship losses. Early studies in the probability of ship loss by foundering and capsizing are reviewed. The approaches used to assess the risk of structural design are addressed. Finally a brief account is given of recent development of using formal safety assessments to support decision making on legislation applicable internationally to maritime transportation

  7. Framework for ecological risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodier, D.; Norton, S.

    1992-02-01

    Increased interest in ecological issues such as global climate change, habitat loss, acid deposition, reduced biological diversity, and the ecological impacts of pesticides and toxic chemicals prompts this U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) report, A Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment ('Framework Report'). The report describes basic elements, or a framework, for evaluating scientific information on the adverse effects of physical and chemical stressors on the environment. The framework offers starting principles and a simple structure as guidance for current ecological risk assessments and as a foundation for future EPA proposals for risk assessment guidelines

  8. Risk Assessment in the UK Health and Safety System: Theory and Practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karen Russ

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available In the UK, a person or organisation that creates risk is required to manage and control that risk so that it is reduced 'So Far As Is Reasonably Practicable' (SFAIRP. How the risk is managed is to be determined by those who create the risk. They have a duty to demonstrate that they have taken action to ensure all risk is reduced SFAIRP and must have documentary evidence, for example a risk assessment or safety case, to prove that they manage the risks their activities create. The UK Health and Safety Executive (HSE does not tell organisations how to manage the risks they create but does inspect the quality of risk identification and management. This paper gives a brief overview of where responsibility for occupational health and safety lies in the UK, and how risk should be managed through risk assessment. The focus of the paper is three recent major UK incidents, all involving fatalities, and all of which were wholly avoidable if risks had been properly assessed and managed. The paper concludes with an analysis of the common failings of risk assessments and key actions for improvement.

  9. Risk Assessment in the UK Health and Safety System: Theory and Practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russ, Karen

    2010-09-01

    In the UK, a person or organisation that creates risk is required to manage and control that risk so that it is reduced 'So Far As Is Reasonably Practicable' (SFAIRP). How the risk is managed is to be determined by those who create the risk. They have a duty to demonstrate that they have taken action to ensure all risk is reduced SFAIRP and must have documentary evidence, for example a risk assessment or safety case, to prove that they manage the risks their activities create. The UK Health and Safety Executive (HSE) does not tell organisations how to manage the risks they create but does inspect the quality of risk identification and management. This paper gives a brief overview of where responsibility for occupational health and safety lies in the UK, and how risk should be managed through risk assessment. The focus of the paper is three recent major UK incidents, all involving fatalities, and all of which were wholly avoidable if risks had been properly assessed and managed. The paper concludes with an analysis of the common failings of risk assessments and key actions for improvement.

  10. [Ecological risk assessment of land use based on exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA): a case study of Haitan Island, Fujian Province].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jian; Chen, Peng; Wen, Chao-Xiang; Fu, Shi-Feng; Chen, Qing-Hui

    2014-07-01

    As a novel environment management tool, ecological risk assessment has provided a new perspective for the quantitative evaluation of ecological effects of land-use change. In this study, Haitan Island in Fujian Province was taken as a case. Based on the Landsat TM obtained in 1990, SPOT5 RS images obtained in 2010, general layout planning map of Pingtan Comprehensive Experimental Zone in 2030, as well as the field investigation data, we established an ecological risk index to measure ecological endpoints. By using spatial autocorrelation and semivariance analysis of Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA), the ecological risk of Haitan Island under different land-use situations was assessed, including the past (1990), present (2010) and future (2030), and the potential risk and its changing trend were analyzed. The results revealed that the ecological risk index showed obvious scale effect, with strong positive correlation within 3000 meters. High-high (HH) and low-low (LL) aggregations were predominant types in spatial distribution of ecological risk index. The ecological risk index showed significant isotropic characteristics, and its spatial distribution was consistent with Anselin Local Moran I (LISA) distribution during the same period. Dramatic spatial distribution change of each ecological risk area was found among 1990, 2010 and 2030, and the fluctuation trend and amplitude of different ecological risk areas were diverse. The low ecological risk area showed a rise-to-fall trend while the medium and high ecological risk areas showed a fall-to-rise trend. In the planning period, due to intensive anthropogenic disturbance, the high ecological risk area spread throughout the whole region. To reduce the ecological risk in land-use and maintain the regional ecological security, the following ecological risk control strategies could be adopted, i.e., optimizing the spatial pattern of land resources, protecting the key ecoregions and controlling the scale of

  11. Clinical risk assessment in intensive care unit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saeed Asefzadeh

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Clinical risk management focuses on improving the quality and safety of health care services by identifying the circumstances and opportunities that put patients at risk of harm and acting to prevent or control those risks. The goal of this study is to identify and assess the failure modes in the ICU of Qazvin′s Social Security Hospital (Razi Hospital through Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA. Methods: This was a qualitative-quantitative research by Focus Discussion Group (FDG performed in Qazvin Province, Iran during 2011. The study population included all individuals and owners who are familiar with the process in ICU. Sampling method was purposeful and the FDG group members were selected by the researcher. The research instrument was standard worksheet that has been used by several researchers. Data was analyzed by FMEA technique. Results: Forty eight clinical errors and failure modes identified, results showed that the highest risk probability number (RPN was in respiratory care "Ventilator′s alarm malfunction (no alarm" with the score 288, and the lowest was in gastrointestinal "not washing the NG-Tube" with the score 8. Conclusions: Many of the identified errors can be prevented by group members. Clinical risk assessment and management is the key to delivery of effective health care.

  12. Assessment of ulceration risk in diabetic individuals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luz Marina Alfonso Dutra

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Objective: To identify the risk factors for foot ulceration through the tracing of diabetic peripheral neuropathy and peripheral arterial disease in individuals with type I and II diabetes, who were assisted in reference centers of the Federal District, Brazil. Method: a cross-sectional and analytical study, with the assessment of 117 individuals in outpatient clinics of the Federal District. Continuous variables were compared through Mann-Whitney test, and categorized variables, through Chi-square test for univariate analysis and Logistics regression test for multivariate analysis. Results: painful diabetic peripheral neuropathy was present in 37 (75.5% of the individuals with neuropathy. Deformities and loss of protective plant sensibility were related to neuropathy (p=0.014 and p=0.001, respectively. Of the 40 (34.2% individuals in the sample who presented peripheral arterial disease, 26 (65% presented calcification risk. Conclusion: signs of painful peripheral polyneuropathy, peripheral arterial disease, deformities, loss of protective plantar sensibility, and dry skin were identified as risk factors for ulceration.

  13. Risk assessment instruments in clinical practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Côté, Gilles; Crocker, Anne G; Nicholls, Tonia L; Seto, Michael C

    2012-04-01

    To determine whether the items in one of the most widely validated instruments of violence risk assessment, the Historical-Clinical-Risk Management-20 (HCR-20), are used in review board hearings to assess the risk of violence by people found Not Criminally Responsible on account of Mental Disorder (NCRMD). This study was conducted from October 2004 to August 2006 in Quebec's sole forensic psychiatric hospital and 2 large civil psychiatric hospitals designated for the care of people declared NCRMD in the Montreal metropolitan area. The risk assessments presented by clinicians at annual review board hearings and the boards' rationale for the release or detention of people found NCRMD were contrasted with the risk assessments conducted by the research team using the HCR-20. The final sample was comprised of 96 men. Very few of the risk factors identified by prior research (HCR-20 items) were mentioned in the hearing process, whether in clinical reports, discussions during the hearing, or in the disposition justification. The findings confirm that there remains a significant gap between research evidence and risk assessment practice.

  14. Update earthquake risk assessment in Cairo, Egypt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badawy, Ahmed; Korrat, Ibrahim; El-Hadidy, Mahmoud; Gaber, Hanan

    2017-07-01

    The Cairo earthquake (12 October 1992; m b = 5.8) is still and after 25 years one of the most painful events and is dug into the Egyptians memory. This is not due to the strength of the earthquake but due to the accompanied losses and damages (561 dead; 10,000 injured and 3000 families lost their homes). Nowadays, the most frequent and important question that should rise is "what if this earthquake is repeated today." In this study, we simulate the same size earthquake (12 October 1992) ground motion shaking and the consequent social-economic impacts in terms of losses and damages. Seismic hazard, earthquake catalogs, soil types, demographics, and building inventories were integrated into HAZUS-MH to produce a sound earthquake risk assessment for Cairo including economic and social losses. Generally, the earthquake risk assessment clearly indicates that "the losses and damages may be increased twice or three times" in Cairo compared to the 1992 earthquake. The earthquake risk profile reveals that five districts (Al-Sahel, El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr sharq) lie in high seismic risks, and three districts (Manshiyat Naser, El-Waily, and Wassat (center)) are in low seismic risk level. Moreover, the building damage estimations reflect that Gharb is the highest vulnerable district. The analysis shows that the Cairo urban area faces high risk. Deteriorating buildings and infrastructure make the city particularly vulnerable to earthquake risks. For instance, more than 90 % of the estimated buildings damages are concentrated within the most densely populated (El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr Gharb) districts. Moreover, about 75 % of casualties are in the same districts. Actually, an earthquake risk assessment for Cairo represents a crucial application of the HAZUS earthquake loss estimation model for risk management. Finally, for mitigation, risk reduction, and to improve the seismic performance of structures and assure life safety

  15. Conflicting Incentives Risk Analysis: A Case Study of the Normative Peer Review Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gaute Wangen

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an approach to conduct risk assessments of complex incentive systems, using a case study of the normative Peer Review Process (PRP. This research centers on appliances and adaptations of the Conflicting Incentives Risk Analysis (CIRA. First as an approach to Root Cause Analysis of a known incident, and then for a full assessment of the incentives in the PRP together with possible risk treatments. CIRA uses an alternative notion of risk, where risk modeling is in terms of conflicting incentives between the risk owner and the stakeholders concerning the execution of actions. Compared to traditional risk assessment approaches, CIRA provides an insight into the underlying incentives behind a risk, and not just the technical vulnerability, likelihood and consequence. The main contributions of this work are an approach to obtain insight into incentives as root causes, and an approach to detecting and analyzing risks from incentives in the normative PRP. This paper also discusses risk treatments in terms of incentives to make the PRP more robust, together with a discussion of how to approach risk analysis of incentives.

  16. The tsunami probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear power plant (3). Outline of tsunami fragility analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mihara, Yoshinori

    2012-01-01

    Tsunami Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) standard was issued in February 2012 by Standard Committee of Atomic Energy Society of Japan (AESJ). This article detailed tsunami fragility analysis, which calculated building and structure damage probability contributing core damage and consisted of five evaluation steps: (1) selection of evaluated element and damage mode, (2) selection of evaluation procedure, (3) evaluation of actual stiffness, (4) evaluation of actual response and (5) evaluation of fragility (damage probability and others). As an application example of the standard, calculation results of tsunami fragility analysis investigation by tsunami PRA subcommittee of AESJ were shown reflecting latest knowledge of damage state caused by wave force and others acted by tsunami from the 'off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake'. (T. Tanaka)

  17. Risk assessment of mitigated domino scenarios in process facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Landucci, Gabriele; Necci, Amos; Antonioni, Giacomo; Argenti, Francesca; Cozzani, Valerio

    2017-01-01

    The propagation of accidents among process units may lead to severe cascading events or domino effects with catastrophic consequences. Prevention, mitigation and management of domino scenarios is of utmost importance and may be achieved in industrial facilities through the adoption of multiple safety layers. The present study was aimed at developing an innovative methodology to address the quantitative risk assessment (QRA) of domino scenarios accounting for the presence and role of safety barriers. Based on the expected performance of safety barriers, a dedicated event tree analysis allowed the identification and the assessment of the frequencies of the different end-point events deriving from unmitigated and partially mitigated domino chains. Specific criteria were introduced in consequence analysis to consider the mitigation effects of end-point scenarios deriving from safety barriers. Individual and societal risk indexes were calculated accounting for safety barriers and the mitigated scenarios that may result from their actions. The application of the methodology to case-studies of industrial interest proved the importance of introducing a specific systematic and quantitative analysis of safety barrier performance when addressing escalation leading to domino effect. - Highlights: • A methodology was developed to account for safety barrier performance in escalation prevention. • The methodology allows quantitative assessment accounting for safety barrier performance. • A detailed analysis of transient mitigated scenarios is allowed by the developed procedure. • The procedure allows accounting for safety barrier performance in QRA of domino scenarios. • An important reduction in the risk due to domino scenarios is evidenced when considering safety barriers.

  18. Obsolescence Risk Assessment Process Best Practice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romero Rojo, F. J.; Roy, R.; Kelly, S.

    2012-05-01

    A component becomes obsolete when it is no longer available from the original manufacturer to the original specification. In long-lifecycle projects, obsolescence has become a major problem as it prevents the maintenance of the system. This is the reason why obsolescence management is now an essential part of the product support activities in sectors such as defence, aerospace, nuclear and railway; where systems need to be supported for several decades. The obsolescence risk assessment for the bill of materials (BoM) is a paramount activity in order to manage obsolescence proactively and cost-effectively. This is the reason why it was necessary to undertake a benchmarking study to develop best practice in this process. A total of 22 obsolescence experts from 13 different organisations/projects from across UK and USA have participated in this study. Their current processes and experience have been taken into account in the development of the best practice process for obsolescence risk assessment. The key factors that have to be analysed in the risk assessment process for each component in the BoM are: number of manufacturers, years to end of life, stock available, consumption rate and operational impact criticality. For the very high risk components, a more detailed analysis is required to inform the decisions regarding the most suitable mitigation strategies. On the contrary, for the low risk components, a fully proactive approach is neither appropriate nor cost effective. Therefore, it is advised for these components that obsolescence issues are dealt with reactively. This process has been validated using case studies with several experts from industry and is currently being implemented by the UK Ministry of Defence as technical guidance within the JSP 886 Volume 7 Part 8.13 standards.

  19. Obsolescence Risk Assessment Process Best Practice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rojo, F J Romero; Roy, R; Kelly, S

    2012-01-01

    A component becomes obsolete when it is no longer available from the original manufacturer to the original specification. In long-lifecycle projects, obsolescence has become a major problem as it prevents the maintenance of the system. This is the reason why obsolescence management is now an essential part of the product support activities in sectors such as defence, aerospace, nuclear and railway; where systems need to be supported for several decades. The obsolescence risk assessment for the bill of materials (BoM) is a paramount activity in order to manage obsolescence proactively and cost-effectively. This is the reason why it was necessary to undertake a benchmarking study to develop best practice in this process. A total of 22 obsolescence experts from 13 different organisations/projects from across UK and USA have participated in this study. Their current processes and experience have been taken into account in the development of the best practice process for obsolescence risk assessment. The key factors that have to be analysed in the risk assessment process for each component in the BoM are: number of manufacturers, years to end of life, stock available, consumption rate and operational impact criticality. For the very high risk components, a more detailed analysis is required to inform the decisions regarding the most suitable mitigation strategies. On the contrary, for the low risk components, a fully proactive approach is neither appropriate nor cost effective. Therefore, it is advised for these components that obsolescence issues are dealt with reactively. This process has been validated using case studies with several experts from industry and is currently being implemented by the UK Ministry of Defence as technical guidance within the JSP 886 Volume 7 Part 8.13 standards.

  20. Probabilistic and deterministic risk assessment for extreme objects and ecologically hazardous systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu. V. Veryuzhsky

    2003-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper include mostly the results of works of the Research Institute for Mechanics of Quickproceeding Processes united in a general research direction - creation of the methodology for risk assessment and risk management for ecologically hazardous systems, consisting of the set of different technological analyzed objects. The elements of system can be characterized by high level of radiation, toxic, explosion, fire and other hazards. The probalistic and deterministic approach for risk assessment, based on mathematical methods of system analysis, non-liner dynamics and computer simulation, has been developed. Branching in problem definition, as well as diversity of factor and criteria for determination of system status, is also taken into account. The risks caused by both objective and subjective factors (including human factor are examined. In many performed studies, the leading structural element, dominating in determination of the system safety, is the structural part of an object. The methodology is implemented for the safety analysis (risk assessment for Chernobyl NPP Shelton Object and other industrial buildings