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Sample records for risk appraisal model

  1. Using Probabilistic Models to Appraise and Decide on Sovereign Disaster Risk Financing and Insurance

    OpenAIRE

    Ley-Borrás, Roberto; Fox, Benjamin D.

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents an overview of the structure of probabilistic catastrophe risk models, discusses their importance for appraising sovereign disaster risk financing and insurance instruments and strategy, and puts forward a model and a process for improving decision making on the linked disaster risk management strategy and sovereign disaster risk financing and insurance strategy. The pa...

  2. A time series modeling approach in risk appraisal of violent and sexual recidivism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bani-Yaghoub, Majid; Fedoroff, J Paul; Curry, Susan; Amundsen, David E

    2010-10-01

    For over half a century, various clinical and actuarial methods have been employed to assess the likelihood of violent recidivism. Yet there is a need for new methods that can improve the accuracy of recidivism predictions. This study proposes a new time series modeling approach that generates high levels of predictive accuracy over short and long periods of time. The proposed approach outperformed two widely used actuarial instruments (i.e., the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide and the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide). Furthermore, analysis of temporal risk variations based on specific time series models can add valuable information into risk assessment and management of violent offenders.

  3. Sustainability appraisal and flood risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carter, Jeremy G.; White, Iain; Richards, Juliet

    2009-01-01

    This research establishes that sustainability appraisal (SA) has a role to play in strengthening spatial plans in the context of flooding issues. Indeed, evidence has been gathered to indicate that tentative steps are being taken in this direction during the SA of English regional spatial plans, which are used as an illustrative case study. In England as in many other countries, appraisal procedures including SA and strategic environmental assessment (SEA) are enshrined in planning law. An opportunity therefore exists to utilise existing and familiar planning tools to embed flooding considerations within spatial plans at an early stage in the planning process. SA (and similar appraisal tools such as SEA) can therefore usefully aid in the implementation of decision making principles and government policy relating to flooding. Moreover, with the threats associated with climate change becoming increasingly apparent, of which increased flood risk is a particular concern in many countries, there is a need develop appropriate adaptation responses. This article emphasizes the role that SA can play in managing future flood risk in this context

  4. Investment appraisal using quantitative risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johansson, Henrik

    2002-07-01

    Investment appraisal concerned with investments in fire safety systems is discussed. Particular attention is directed at evaluating, in terms of the Bayesian decision theory, the risk reduction that investment in a fire safety system involves. It is shown how the monetary value of the change from a building design without any specific fire protection system to one including such a system can be estimated by use of quantitative risk analysis, the results of which are expressed in terms of a Risk-adjusted net present value. This represents the intrinsic monetary value of investing in the fire safety system. The method suggested is exemplified by a case study performed in an Avesta Sheffield factory.

  5. Comparison of linear and zero-inflated negative binomial regression models for appraisal of risk factors associated with dental caries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batra, Manu; Shah, Aasim Farooq; Rajput, Prashant; Shah, Ishrat Aasim

    2016-01-01

    Dental caries among children has been described as a pandemic disease with a multifactorial nature. Various sociodemographic factors and oral hygiene practices are commonly tested for their influence on dental caries. In recent years, a recent statistical model that allows for covariate adjustment has been developed and is commonly referred zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) models. To compare the fit of the two models, the conventional linear regression (LR) model and ZINB model to assess the risk factors associated with dental caries. A cross-sectional survey was conducted on 1138 12-year-old school children in Moradabad Town, Uttar Pradesh during months of February-August 2014. Selected participants were interviewed using a questionnaire. Dental caries was assessed by recording decayed, missing, or filled teeth (DMFT) index. To assess the risk factor associated with dental caries in children, two approaches have been applied - LR model and ZINB model. The prevalence of caries-free subjects was 24.1%, and mean DMFT was 3.4 ± 1.8. In LR model, all the variables were statistically significant. Whereas in ZINB model, negative binomial part showed place of residence, father's education level, tooth brushing frequency, and dental visit statistically significant implying that the degree of being caries-free (DMFT = 0) increases for group of children who are living in urban, whose father is university pass out, who brushes twice a day and if have ever visited a dentist. The current study report that the LR model is a poorly fitted model and may lead to spurious conclusions whereas ZINB model has shown better goodness of fit (Akaike information criterion values - LR: 3.94; ZINB: 2.39) and can be preferred if high variance and number of an excess of zeroes are present.

  6. Enhancing Positive Reactions to Breast Cancer Risk Appraisal

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Cochrane, Barbara

    1996-01-01

    .... Thus, this study seeks to: (1) assess the psychological distress of 350 women ages 50 to 85 who receive breast cancer risk appraisal and randomization to immediate or delayed group psychosocial counseling (2...

  7. Enhancing Positive Reactions to Breast Cancer Risk Appraisal

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Cochrane, Barbara

    1997-01-01

    .... Thus, this study seeks to: (1) assess the psychological distress of 350 women ages 50 to 85 who receive breast cancer risk appraisal and randomization to immediate or delayed group psychosocial counseling; (2...

  8. Individual Differences in Children's Risk Perception and Appraisals in Outdoor Play Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Little, Helen; Wyver, Shirley

    2010-01-01

    Child characteristics including age, gender, risk-taking behaviour and sensation seeking are thought to influence children's ability to appraise risks. The present study investigated children's risk perceptions and appraisals in the context of common outdoor physical play activities. Risk perceptions and appraisal of four- and five-year olds were…

  9. A Composite Model for Employees' Performance Appraisal and Improvement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manoharan, T. R.; Muralidharan, C.; Deshmukh, S. G.

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to develop an innovative method of performance appraisal that will be useful for designing a structured training programme. Design/methodology/approach: Employees' performance appraisals are conducted using new approaches, namely data envelopment analysis and an integrated fuzzy model. Interpretive structural…

  10. Student feedback on an adapted appraisal model in resource ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background. An appraisal model, a type of formal mentorship programme for a cohort of student doctors, is used at the University of Leeds, UK. The University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa implemented an adapted version of the appraisal process that uses fewer resources. Objective. To explore ...

  11. Relative Risk Appraisal, the September 11 Attacks, and Terrorism-Related Fears

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, Randall D.; Bryant, Richard A.; Amsel, Lawrence; Suh, Eun Jung; Cook, Joan M.; Neria, Yuval

    2013-01-01

    There are now replicated findings that posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms related to the September 11, 2001, attacks occurred in large numbers of persons who did not fit the traditional definition of exposure to a traumatic event. These data are not explained by traditional epidemiologic “bull’s eye” disaster models, which assume the psychological effects are narrowly, geographically circumscribed, or by existing models of PTSD onset. In this article, the authors develop a researchable model to explain these and other terrorism-related phenomena by synthesizing research and concepts from the cognitive science, risk appraisal, traumatic stress, and anxiety disorders literatures. They propose the new term relative risk appraisal to capture the psychological function that is the missing link between the event and subjective response in these and other terrorism-related studies to date. Relative risk appraisal highlights the core notion from cognitive science that human perception is an active, multidimensional process, such that for unpredictable societal threats, proximity to the event is only one of several factors that influence behavioral responses. Addressing distortions in relative risk appraisal effectively could reduce individual and societal vulnerability to a wide range of adverse economic and ethnopolitical consequences to terrorist attacks. The authors present ways in which these concepts and related techniques can be helpful in treating persons with September 11– or terrorism-related distress or psychopathology. PMID:17516775

  12. Appraising the Risks of Reefer Madness

    OpenAIRE

    Murray, Robin

    2015-01-01

    Editor?s Note: Studies that have tied cannabis use to schizophrenia in the developing brain are just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to marijuana. Are different strains and synthetic cannabinoids especially dangerous? Are we doing enough to educate young people on the risks? Does marijuana use lower IQ? Where is the line between medical marijuana and recreational use? Our author, a noted British psychiatrist, offers a European perspective on these issues.

  13. Risks, doubt, scientific and technical expert appraisement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Decrop, G.

    1993-01-01

    In complex systems which compose modern societies, expert report is going to take an increasing place. In its usual definition, expert is justified by a superior authority, his knowledge comes from experience, he is present as a third party where he has to work. It is often forgotten two other important points, connected with the situation: it is a tangling of technical or natural systems with a social system and above all there is a risk of uncertainty. Then, the job of expert is different from scientific work done in laboratories and different from operational work done by engineers

  14. A methodology for flood risk appraisal in Lithuania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kriščiukaitienė Irena

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a methodology for flood risk mapping as envisaged by the Directive on the Assessment and Management of Flood Risks [Directive 2007/60/EC]. Specifically, we aimed at identifying the types of flood damage that can be estimated given data availability in Lithuania. Furthermore, we present the main sources of data and the associated cost functions. The methodology covers the following main types of flood threats: risk to inhabitants, risk to economic activity, and social risk. A multi-criteria framework for aggregation of different risks is proposed to provide a comprehensive appraisal of flood risk. On the basis of the proposed research, flood risk maps have been prepared for Lithuania. These maps are available for each type of flood risk (i.e. inhabitants, economic losses, social risk as well as for aggregate risk. The results indicate that flood risk management is crucial for western and central Lithuania, whereas other parts of the country are not likely to suffer from significant losses due to flooding.

  15. Predicting risk of violence through a self-appraisal questionnaire

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Manuel Andreu-Rodríguez

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The Self-Appraisal Questionnaire (SAQ is a self-report that predicts the risk of violence and recidivism and provides relevant information about treatment needs for incarcerated populations. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the concurrent and predictive validity of this self-report in Spanish offenders. The SAQ was administered to 276 offenders recruited from several prisons in Madrid (Spain. SAQ total scores presented high levels of internal consistency (alpha = .92. Correlations of the instrument with violence risk instruments were statistically significant and showed a moderate magnitude, indicating a reasonable degree of concurrent validity. The ROC analysis carried out on the SAQ total score revealed an AUC of .80, showing acceptable accuracy discriminating between violent and nonviolent recidivist groups. It is concluded that the SAQ total score is a reliable and valid measure to estimate violence and recidivism risk in Spanish offenders.

  16. Integrating a quantitative risk appraisal in a health impact assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Adám, Balázs; Molnár, Agnes; Gulis, Gabriel

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Although the quantification of health outcomes in a health impact assessment (HIA) is scarce in practice, it is preferred by policymakers, as it assists various aspects of the decision-making process. This article provides an example of integrating a quantitative risk appraisal...... in an HIA performed for the recently adopted Hungarian anti-smoking policy which introduced a smoking ban in closed public places, workplaces and public transport vehicles, and is one of the most effective measures to decrease smoking-related ill health. METHODS: A comprehensive, prospective HIA...... to decrease the prevalence of active and passive smoking and result in a considerably positive effect on several diseases, among which lung cancer, chronic pulmonary diseases, coronary heart diseases and stroke have the greatest importance. The health gain calculated for the quantifiable health outcomes...

  17. Economic scenarios for the real estate market: Incorporating uncertainty and risk in real estate appraisals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carsten Lausberg

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Real estate appraisal is usually regarded as both a science and an art: “science” because the appraiser uses mathematical calculations and other objective elements, “art” because he also uses his experience and other subjective elements. This dual character requires—among others—that new insights from other disciplines and current trends are taken into account. The central proposition of the article is that this requirement is not met. The author provides evidence that real estate risk management has made tremendous progress since the mid-1990s which has not found its way into appraisal practice, thereby creating a situation where appraisals by risk analysts differ greatly from appraisals by real estate appraisers. According to the author the gap between real estate appraisal and risk analysis should be closed from both sides. The article begins with an overview of the most important trends which will impact real estate values in the future. From these trends, an exemplary economic scenario for European real estate markets is derived in order to demonstrate that scenario writing is a powerful tool for risk management. After that the author discusses some other methods of risk management and their potential benefits for real estate appraisal.

  18. Green Jobs: Definition and Method of Appraisal of Chemical and Biological Risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheneval, Erwan; Busque, Marc-Antoine; Ostiguy, Claude; Lavoie, Jacques; Bourbonnais, Robert; Labrèche, France; Bakhiyi, Bouchra; Zayed, Joseph

    2016-04-01

    In the wake of sustainable development, green jobs are developing rapidly, changing the work environment. However a green job is not automatically a safe job. The aim of the study was to define green jobs, and to establish a preliminary risk assessment of chemical substances and biological agents for workers in Quebec. An operational definition was developed, along with criteria and sustainable development principles to discriminate green jobs from regular jobs. The potential toxicity or hazard associated with their chemical and biological exposures was assessed, and the workers' exposure appraised using an expert assessment method. A control banding approach was then used to assess risks for workers in selected green jobs. A double entry model allowed us to set priorities in terms of chemical or biological risk. Among jobs that present the highest risk potential, several are related to waste management. The developed method is flexible and could be adapted to better appraise the risks that workers are facing or to propose control measures. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Occupational Hygiene Society.

  19. Appraisal of the porcine kidney autotransplantation model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Post, Ivo C. J. H.; Dirkes, Marcel C.; Heger, Michal; van Loon, Johannes P. A. M.; Swildens, Bas; Huijzer, Goos M.; van Gulik, Thomas M.

    2012-01-01

    Animal models are extensively used for transplantation related research, especially kidney transplantation. Porcine autotransplantation models are considered to be favorable regarding translatability to the human setting. The key determinants for translatability of the model are discussed,

  20. Nonlinear Appraisal Modeling: An Application of Machine Learning to the Study of Emotion Production

    OpenAIRE

    Meuleman, Ben; Scherer, Klaus R.

    2013-01-01

    Appraisal theory of emotion claims that emotions are not caused by "raw" stimuli, as such, but by the subjective evaluation (appraisal) of those stimuli. Studies that analyzed this relation have been dominated by linear models of analysis. These methods are not ideally suited to examine a basic assumption of many appraisal theories, which is that appraisal criteria interact to differentiate emotions, and hence show nonlinear effects. Studies that did model interactions were either l...

  1. Real estate appraisal of land lots using GAMLSS models

    OpenAIRE

    Florencio, Lutemberg; Cribari-Neto, Francisco; Ospina, Raydonal

    2011-01-01

    The valuation of real estates (e.g., house, land, among others) is of extreme importance for decision making. Their singular characteristics make valuation through hedonic pricing methods dificult since the theory does not specify the correct regression functional form nor which explanatory variables should be included in the hedonic equation. In this article we perform real estate appraisal using a class of regression models proposed by Rigby & Stasinopoulos (2005): generalized additive mode...

  2. An Appraisal Of Groupon E-Business Model

    OpenAIRE

    Odeniyi; O. Ayodeji; Lawal; N. Tunde; Kareem; A. E. Adebowale

    2015-01-01

    Abstract A new kind of business digital age middleman which ordinarily may not have been possible has emerged. An instance is Groupon an e-commerce platform which allows a small group of merchants to reach a large number of customers using internet and social media technologies to provide discounted deals. Therefore the purpose of this study is to appraise the Groupon e-business model. Firstly the brief profile and business model was examined. Thereafter an in-depth Social Legal Economic Poli...

  3. Increasing young adults' condom use intentions and behaviour through changing chlamydia risk and coping appraisals: study protocol for a cluster randomised controlled trial of efficacy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newby, Katie V; French, David P; Brown, Katherine E; Lecky, Donna M

    2013-05-30

    Chlamydia is the most commonly diagnosed sexually transmitted infection (STI) in England and has serious public health consequences. Young people carry a disproportionate burden of infection. A number of social cognition models identify risk appraisal as a primary motivator of behaviour suggesting that changing risk appraisals for STIs may be an effective strategy in motivating protective behaviour. Meta-analytic evidence indicates that the relationship between risk appraisal and health behaviour is small, but studies examining this relationship have been criticised for their many conceptual and methodological weaknesses. The effect of risk appraisal on health behaviour may therefore be of larger size. The proposed study aims to examine the efficacy of an intervention to increase condom use intentions and behaviour amongst young people through changing chlamydia risk and coping appraisals. Coping appraisal is targeted to avoid the intervention being counterproductive amongst recipients who do not feel able to perform the behaviour required to reduce the threat. An experimental design with follow-up, a conditional measure of risk appraisal, and analysis which controls for past behaviour, enable the relationship between risk appraisal and protective behaviour to be accurately assessed. The proposed study is a two-arm cluster randomised controlled trial using a waiting-list control design to test the efficacy of the intervention compared to a control group. Participants will be school pupils aged 13-16 years old recruited from approximately ten secondary schools. Schools will be randomised into each arm. Participants will receive their usual teaching on STIs but those in the intervention condition will additionally receive a single-session sex education lesson on chlamydia. Measures will be taken at baseline, post-intervention and at follow-up three months later. The primary outcome measure is intention to use condoms with casual sexual partners. As far as the authors

  4. Risk-appraisal, outcome and self-efficacy expectancies: Cognitive factors in preventive behaviour related to cancer

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Seydel, E.R.; Taal, Erik; Wiegman, O.

    1990-01-01

    Health education often attempts to influence or persuade through risk-appraisal of impending danger or harm. Risk: appraisal implies cognitive processes concerning the severity of the threatening event and the probability of its occurrence. In two studies we investigated whether risk factors could

  5. Perceived nuclear risk, organizational commitment, and appraisals of management: A study of nuclear power plant personnel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kivimaeki, M.; Kalimo, R.; Salminen, S.

    1995-01-01

    This study examined to what extent nuclear risk perceptions, organizational commitment (OC), and appraisals of management are associated with each other among nuclear power plant personnel. The sample consisted of 428 nuclear power plant workers who completed a questionnaire at their workplace. Perceived nuclear risk and OC were most closely related to the appraisals of the top management of the organization. As the trust in and satisfaction with the top management increased, perceived nuclear safety and acceptance of the organizational goals and values heightened. This result is discussed in the context of industrial safety management. 29 refs., 2 tabs

  6. Use of the Management Oversight and Risk Tree (MORT) methodology in health-physics program appraisals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Essig, T.H.; Gilchrist, R.L.

    1981-06-01

    In January 1980, Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) assumed a major role in helping the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) conduct comprehensive health physics appraisals at 47 operating nuclear power plants. These appraisals required the development of an analytical technique that permitted a deductive analysis of a health-physics program on an element-by-element basis. The technique employed was a modification of the Management Oversight and risk Tree (MORT) analytical logic methodology used in probabilistic assessments. This paper includes the method used in establishing the appraisal guidelines and assigning the proper level of importance within the analytical tree structure. The system for ensuring the proper subdivision necessary for an adequate assessment of each area (e.g., exposure controls and radioactive waste management) will also be discussed. In addition to these major subjects, the generation of specific review questions that correspond to the analytical trees is addressed

  7. An Appraisal Of Groupon E-Business Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Odeniyi

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract A new kind of business digital age middleman which ordinarily may not have been possible has emerged. An instance is Groupon an e-commerce platform which allows a small group of merchants to reach a large number of customers using internet and social media technologies to provide discounted deals. Therefore the purpose of this study is to appraise the Groupon e-business model. Firstly the brief profile and business model was examined. Thereafter an in-depth Social Legal Economic Political Technological EcologicalEnvironmental and Competitive SLEPTEC analysis of the business model was carried out. Then the elements of the business model and the resulting growth and advantages that bring about competitive and profits in the modern markets for Groupon were evaluated. The findings shows that simple technologies of email and social media can be leveraged for business success especially in massive subscribers base as currently witnessed by Groupon. The study revealed the associated problems with the Groupon e-business platform and thus conclusively recommends how the business model can be improved via considerations of other technological factors.

  8. A New Approach to Feasibility Risk Assessment within Transport Infrastructure Appraisal

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang

    2013-01-01

    This paper introduces a new approach of applying feasibility risk assessment within transport project infrastructure appraisal. The procedure is based upon quantitative risk analysis and Monte Carlo simulation in combination with conventional cost-benefit analysis converting deterministic benefit...... are, hereby, often basing their decisions on wrongful material. The presented approach to transport infrastructure appraisal is to include uncertainties and risks in the evaluation. Correspondingly, the handling of uncertainties and risk within transport project assessment are often made up...... by sensitivity tests producing deterministically based output values. Research has proven that traditional sensitivity analysis seldomnly captures the total variability especially as concerns the costs and demands estimated in the pre-stage of the evaluation. Therefore, this paper introduces an approach...

  9. Focusing on appraisals: how and why anger and fear influence driving risk perception.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Jingyi; Xie, Xiaofei; Zhang, Ruogu

    2013-06-01

    The present research explores how and why anger and fear influence driving risk perception. Based on appraisal tendency framework, researchers hypothesized that anger and fear would influence driving risk perception in opposite directions due to their differences in appraisals. Study 1 showed that anger reduced risk perception, whereas fear increased it. In Studies 2, 3, and 4, the researchers adopted the paradigm of reappraisal to investigate the causes of the opposite effects found in Study 1. Consistent with our hypothesis, appraisals accounted for these effects: After reappraisals along the dimensions of certainty (Study 2), control (Study 3), and responsibility (Study 4), the different effects between anger and fear on driving risk perception diminished or disappeared. In addition, fearful or angry experience mediated the effects of reappraisals on driving risk perception. The findings highlight the necessity to differentiate anger and fear in road safety management. Additionally, the current research also provides feasible methods (e.g., certainty, control, or responsibility reappraisal) to intervene in driving risk perception, which is important for driving safety. Copyright © 2013 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Appraisals to affect: Testing the integrative cognitive model of bipolar disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palmier-Claus, Jasper E; Dodd, Alyson; Tai, Sara; Emsley, Richard; Mansell, Warren

    2016-09-01

    Cognitive models have suggested that extreme appraisals of affective states and maladaptive affect regulation strategies are important in the development of bipolar symptomatology. Little is known about the pathway by which these appraisals and behaviours interact in the formation of activated and depressed affective states. This study tested the predictions that (1) ascent behaviours mediate the relationship between positive appraisals of activated mood and activation; and (2) descent behaviours mediate the relationship between negative appraisals of activated mood and depression. A total of 52 individuals with a DSM-IV diagnosis of bipolar I or II disorder (confirmed by structured interview) completed biweekly assessments of affect regulation behaviours and mood for 4 weeks. Positive and negative appraisals of affective states were assessed at baseline through the Hypomanic Attitudes and Positive Prediction Inventory. Multilevel mediation analysis was used to explore the data. Ascent behaviours partially mediated the relationship between positive appraisals of activated mood and activation. Descent behaviours, but not negative appraisals of activated mood, predicted levels of depression indicating the absence of a mediation effect. The results suggest that positive appraisals of activated mood can escalate activation in individuals with bipolar disorder. Such appraisals may be inherently rewarding and reinforcing directly elevating levels of activation, whilst increasing individuals' use of ascent behaviours. The results are consistent with the view that appraisals and behaviours should be targeted during cognitive behavioural therapy for bipolar disorder. It may be beneficial to target positive appraisals of activated mood in cognitive behavioural therapy for mania. Cognitive behavioural therapists may also wish to focus on identifying and targeting individuals' use of ascent behaviours to reduce highly activated states. © 2015 The British Psychological

  11. College Student Smokers' Cognitive Appraisal of High-Risk Activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Copeland, Amy L.; Kulesza, Magdalena; Patterson, Scott M.; Terlecki, Meredith A.

    2009-01-01

    Objective: Students who smoke are more likely to engage in risky behaviors such as binge drinking and unprotected sex (Schnieder and Morris, "Environ Behav." 1999; 23:575-591). The goals of the present study were to determine whether smokers assess these behaviors as lower risk than nonsmokers, and if smoking rate influences risk…

  12. Communication Efficacy and Couples’ Cancer Management: Applying a Dyadic Appraisal Model

    OpenAIRE

    Magsamen-Conrad, Kate; Checton, Maria G.; Venetis, Maria K.; Greene, Kathryn

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of the present study was to apply Berg and Upchurch’s (2007) developmental-conceptual model to understand better how couples cope with cancer. Specifically, we hypothesized a dyadic appraisal model in which proximal factors (relational quality), dyadic appraisal (prognosis uncertainty), and dyadic coping (communication efficacy) predicted adjustment (cancer management). The study was cross-sectional and included 83 dyads in which one partner had been diagnosed with and/or treated ...

  13. Communication Efficacy and Couples’ Cancer Management: Applying a Dyadic Appraisal Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magsamen-Conrad, Kate; Checton, Maria G.; Venetis, Maria K.; Greene, Kathryn

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of the present study was to apply Berg and Upchurch’s (2007) developmental-conceptual model to understand better how couples cope with cancer. Specifically, we hypothesized a dyadic appraisal model in which proximal factors (relational quality), dyadic appraisal (prognosis uncertainty), and dyadic coping (communication efficacy) predicted adjustment (cancer management). The study was cross-sectional and included 83 dyads in which one partner had been diagnosed with and/or treated for cancer. For both patients and partners, multilevel analyses using the actor-partner interdependence model (APIM) indicated that proximal contextual factors predicted dyadic appraisal and dyadic coping. Dyadic appraisal predicted dyadic coping, which then predicted dyadic adjustment. Patients’ confidence in their ability to talk about the cancer predicted their own cancer management. Partners’ confidence predicted their own and the patient’s ability to cope with cancer, which then predicted patients’ perceptions of their general health. Implications and future research are discussed. PMID:25983382

  14. Communication Efficacy and Couples' Cancer Management: Applying a Dyadic Appraisal Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magsamen-Conrad, Kate; Checton, Maria G; Venetis, Maria K; Greene, Kathryn

    2015-06-01

    The purpose of the present study was to apply Berg and Upchurch's (2007) developmental-conceptual model to understand better how couples cope with cancer. Specifically, we hypothesized a dyadic appraisal model in which proximal factors (relational quality), dyadic appraisal (prognosis uncertainty), and dyadic coping (communication efficacy) predicted adjustment (cancer management). The study was cross-sectional and included 83 dyads in which one partner had been diagnosed with and/or treated for cancer. For both patients and partners, multilevel analyses using the actor-partner interdependence model (APIM) indicated that proximal contextual factors predicted dyadic appraisal and dyadic coping. Dyadic appraisal predicted dyadic coping, which then predicted dyadic adjustment. Patients' confidence in their ability to talk about the cancer predicted their own cancer management. Partners' confidence predicted their own and the patient's ability to cope with cancer, which then predicted patients' perceptions of their general health. Implications and future research are discussed.

  15. Climate Change Risk Appraisal in the Austrian Ski Industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolfsegger, C.

    2009-04-01

    Ski tourism is an economically and culturally important industry in many parts of Europe. A growing number of studies in Europe, North America, Japan, and Australia have concluded that climate change has potentially serious implications for the sustainability of ski operations by reducing the average length of ski seasons and, where applicable, increasing snowmaking costs. To date, however, the climate change risk awareness and adaptive responses of stakeholders in the ski industry have not been examined. A survey of managers at low elevation ski areas in Austria was undertaken to explore their perceptions of climate change (past and future), how climate change had/will affect their operations, and their adaptive responses (past and planned). The results indicate that climate change is not perceived to be a serious threat to ski operations and that with technological adaptation, principally snowmaking, ski area managers believe they will be able to effectively cope with climate change in the 21st century. The consequences of these perceptions for the future operation of these ski areas are discussed and conclusions drawn for the future of ski tourism in Austria.

  16. Modeling posttraumatic growth among cancer patients: The roles of social support, appraisals, and adaptive coping.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Weidan; Qi, Xiaona; Cai, Deborah A; Han, Xuanye

    2018-01-01

    The purpose of the study was to build a model to explain the relationships between social support, uncontrollability appraisal, adaptive coping, and posttraumatic growth (PTG) among cancer patients in China. The participants who were cancer patients in a cancer hospital in China filled out a survey. The final sample size was 201. Structural equation modeling was used to build a model explaining PTG. Structural equation modeling results indicated that higher levels of social support predicted higher levels of adaptive coping, higher levels of uncontrollability appraisal predicted lower levels of adaptive coping, and higher levels of adaptive coping predicted higher levels of PTG. Moreover, adaptive coping was a mediator between social support and growth, as well as a mediator between uncontrollability and growth. The direct effects of social support and uncontrollability on PTG were insignificant. The model demonstrated the relationships between social support, uncontrollability appraisal, adaptive coping, and PTG. It could be concluded that uncontrollability appraisal was a required but not sufficient condition for PTG. Neither social support nor uncontrollability appraisal had direct influence on PTG. However, social support and uncontrollability might indirectly influence PTG, through adaptive coping. It implies that both internal factors (eg, cognitive appraisal and coping) and external factors (eg, social support) are required in order for growth to happen. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  17. Risk assessment and economic appraisal of protection methods for the Tarascon-Arles railway embankment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheetham Mark

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The coordination of flood management practices and the reduction of flood risk as proposed under the Plan Rhône project has led to a vast program of flood defence modernization and construction in the lower Rhône valley. One key element of the project involves the construction of a new 9km levee structure parallel to an existing railway line between the towns of Tarascon and Arles (Bouches-du-Rhône, France on the left bank of the Rhône, which has historically been an obstacle to the propagation of flood flows. The new levee is designed to protect the towns of Arles and Tarascon up to the 10−2 annual probability flood event, after which floodwater will flow over a 5km spillway which will be integrated into the structure. In case of overtopping of the spillway via a spillway structure, floodwater is collected in the space between the two embankments and will subsequently flow towards one of ten newly constructed flood discharge structures, spaced at regular intervals in the railway embankment. The levee will form part of a global system of defence which is designed against flooding on the Rhône with an annual probability of occurrence of 10−3. In the event of overtopping of the levee, the railway embankment will be subjected to hydraulic loading and is at risk of damage from flood flows. During the detailed design phase of the project, options were explored for optimizing the permanent protection for the railway embankment. Using results from 2D and 3D hydraulic numerical modelling, a detailed risk assessment of the railway embankment was undertaken to evaluate its vulnerability under different hydraulic loading conditions and for different failure mechanisms using various parameters including water depth, hydraulic load, the duration of flood exposure and flow velocity. A comprehensive understanding of the main mechanisms of embankment damage under hydraulic loading (internal/ external erosion, overtopping, rotational failure etc

  18. Incremental Validity Analyses of the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide and the Psychopathy Checklist: Screening Version in a Civil Psychiatric Sample

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edens, John F.; Skeem, Jennifer L.; Douglas, Kevin S.

    2006-01-01

    This study compares two instruments frequently used to assess risk for violence, the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG) and the Psychopathy Checklist: Screening Version (PCL:SV), in a large sample of civil psychiatric patients. Despite a strong bivariate relationship with community violence, the VRAG could not improve on the predictive validity…

  19. Quantifying links between stroke and risk factors: a study on individual health risk appraisal of stroke in a community of Chongqing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Yazhou; Zhang, Ling; Yuan, Xiaoyan; Wu, Yamin; Yi, Dong

    2011-04-01

    The objective of this study is to investigate the risk factors of stroke in a community in Chongqing by setting quantitative criteria for determining the risk factors of stroke. Thus, high-risk individuals can be identified and laid a foundation for predicting individual risk of stroke. 1,034 cases with 1:2 matched controls (2,068) were chosen from five communities in Chongqing including Shapingba, Xiaolongkan, Tianxingqiao, Yubei Road and Ciqikou. Participants were interviewed with a uniform questionnaire. The risk factors of stroke and the odds ratios of risk factors were analyzed with a logistic regression model, and risk exposure factors of different levels were converted into risk scores using statistical models. For men, ten risk factors including hypertension (5.728), family history of stroke (4.599), and coronary heart disease (5.404), among others, were entered into the main effect model. For women, 11 risk factors included hypertension (5.270), family history of stroke (4.866), hyperlipidemia (4.346), among others. The related risk scores were added to obtain a combined risk score to predict the individual's risk of stoke in the future. An individual health risk appraisal model of stroke, which was applicable to individuals of different gender, age, health behavior, disease and family history, was established. In conclusion, personal diseases including hypertension, diabetes mellitus, etc., were very important to the prevalence of stoke. The prevalence of stroke can be effectively reduced by changing unhealthy lifestyles and curing the positive individual disease. The study lays a foundation for health education to persuade people to change their unhealthy lifestyles or behaviors, and could be used in community health services.

  20. A Model of International Communication Media Appraisal and Exposure: A Comprehensive Test in Belize.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, J. David; Oliveira, Omar Souki

    A study constituted the fifth phase of a programmatic research effort designed to develop and test a model of international communications media exposure and appraisal. The model posits that three variables--editorial tone, communication potential, and utility--have positive determinant effects on these dependent variables. Research was carried…

  1. A comparison of modified versions of the Static-99 and the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nunes, Kevin L; Firestone, Philip; Bradford, John M; Greenberg, David M; Broom, Ian

    2002-07-01

    The predictive validity of 2 risk assessment instruments for sex offenders, modified versions of the Static-99 and the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide, was examined and compared in a sample of 258 adult male sex offenders. In addition, the independent contributions to the prediction of recidivism made by each instrument and by various phallometric indices were explored. Both instruments demonstrated moderate levels of predictive accuracy for sexual and violent (including sexual) recidivism. They were not significantly different in terms of their predictive accuracy for sexual or violent recidivism, nor did they contribute independently to the prediction of sexual or violent recidivism. Of the phallometric indices examined, only the pedophile index added significantly to the prediction of sexual recidivism, but not violent recidivism, above the Static-99 alone.

  2. Appraising longitudinal trends in the strategic risks cited by risk managers in the international water utility sector, 2005-2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chalker, Rosemary T C; Pollard, Simon J T; Leinster, Paul; Jude, Simon

    2018-03-15

    We report dynamic changes in the priorities for strategic risks faced by international water utilities over a 10year period, as cited by managers responsible for managing them. A content analysis of interviews with three cohorts of risk managers in the water sector was undertaken. Interviews probed the focus risk managers' were giving to strategic risks within utilities, as well as specific questions on risk analysis tools (2005); risk management cultures (2011) and the integration of risk management with corporate decision-making (2015). The coding frequency of strategic (business, enterprise, corporate) risk terms from 18 structured interviews (2005) and 28 semi-structured interviews (12 in 2011; 16 in 2015) was used to appraise changes in the perceived importance of strategic risks within the sector. The aggregated coding frequency across the study period, and changes in the frequency of strategic risks cited at three interview periods identified infrastructure assets as the most significant risk over the period and suggests an emergence of extrinsic risk over time. Extended interviews with three utility risk managers (2016) from the UK, Canada and the US were then used to contextualise the findings. This research supports the ongoing focus on infrastructure resilience and the increasing prevalence of extrinsic risk within the water sector, as reported by the insurance sector and by water research organisations. The extended interviews provided insight into how strategic risks are now driving the implementation agenda within utilities, and into how utilities can secure tangible business value from proactive risk governance. Strategic external risks affecting the sector are on the rise, involve more players and are less controllable from within a utility's own organisational boundaries. Proportionate risk management processes and structures provide oversight and assurance, whilst allowing a focus on the tangible business value that comes from managing strategic

  3. Examining individual factors according to health risk appraisal data as determinants of absenteeism among US utility employees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marzec, Mary L; Scibelli, Andrew F; Edington, Dee W

    2013-07-01

    To investigate predictors of absenteeism and discuss potential implications for policy/program design. Health Risk Appraisal (HRA) data and self-reported and objective absenteeism (personnel records) were used to develop a structural equation model, controlling for age, sex, and job classification. A Medical Condition Burden Index (MCBI) was created by summing the number of self-reported medical conditions. Higher MCBI and stress were direct predictors of absenteeism. Physical activity was not associated with absenteeism but mediated both stress and MCBI. Because stress impacted both absenteeism and MCBI, organizations may benefit by placing stress management as a priority for wellness program and policy focus. Physical activity was not directly associated with absenteeism but was a mediating variable for stress and MCBI. Measures of stress and physical health may be more meaningful as outcome measures for physical activity programs than absenteeism.

  4. How "Does" the Comforting Process Work? An Empirical Test of an Appraisal-Based Model of Comforting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Susanne M.; Wirtz, John G.

    2006-01-01

    Burleson and Goldsmith's (1998) comforting model suggests an appraisal-based mechanism through which comforting messages can bring about a positive change in emotional states. This study is a first empirical test of three causal linkages implied by the appraisal-based comforting model. Participants (N=258) talked about an upsetting event with a…

  5. Living with a `women's disease': risk appraisal and management among men with osteoporosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solimeo, Samantha L

    2011-10-01

    BACKGROUND: There is clear evidence that men suffer from osteoporosis (OP) in increasing numbers, but that men commonly remain underdiagnosed, undertreated and experience poorer outcomes than do women. The widespread sociocultural association of OP with postmenopausal women reflects their greater risk for developing the disorder, but the sexing of OP as a women's disease disadvantages at-risk men. METHODS: This paper reports on qualitative data gathered from 23 community-residing men who have an OP diagnosis. RESULTS: Interviews with men reveal that the sexing of OP as a female disease may affect men's risk appraisal. Men clearly associate OP risk factors with women and accordingly may feel protected from the disorder. Subsequent to diagnosis, men's OP-related risk management strategies reveal that men's gender identity constrains their ability to enact risk-reducing behavior. CONCLUSIONS: Men may internalize the association of OP with women and incorporate it into a sense of perceived invulnerability to the condition, which, in turn, contributes to delayed diagnosis and treatment. Limited male-specific treatment and support options as well as social expectations of male gender performance play roles in men's health behavior.

  6. Extending the Challenge-Hindrance Model of Occupational Stress: The Role of Appraisal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webster, Jennica R.; Beehr, Terry A.; Love, Kevin

    2011-01-01

    Interest regarding the challenge-hindrance occupational stress model has increased in recent years, however its theoretical foundation has not been tested. Drawing from the transactional theory of stress, this study tests the assumptions made in past research (1) that workload and responsibility are appraised as challenges and role ambiguity and…

  7. Interrater reliability of Violence Risk Appraisal Guide scores provided in Canadian criminal proceedings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edens, John F; Penson, Brittany N; Ruchensky, Jared R; Cox, Jennifer; Smith, Shannon Toney

    2016-12-01

    Published research suggests that most violence risk assessment tools have relatively high levels of interrater reliability, but recent evidence of inconsistent scores among forensic examiners in adversarial settings raises concerns about the "field reliability" of such measures. This study specifically examined the reliability of Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG) scores in Canadian criminal cases identified in the legal database, LexisNexis. Over 250 reported cases were located that made mention of the VRAG, with 42 of these cases containing 2 or more scores that could be submitted to interrater reliability analyses. Overall, scores were skewed toward higher risk categories. The intraclass correlation (ICCA1) was .66, with pairs of forensic examiners placing defendants into the same VRAG risk "bin" in 68% of the cases. For categorical risk statements (i.e., low, moderate, high), examiners provided converging assessment results in most instances (86%). In terms of potential predictors of rater disagreement, there was no evidence for adversarial allegiance in our sample. Rater disagreement in the scoring of 1 VRAG item (Psychopathy Checklist-Revised; Hare, 2003), however, strongly predicted rater disagreement in the scoring of the VRAG (r = .58). (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  8. Does abortion reduce the mental health risks of unwanted or unintended pregnancy? A re-appraisal of the evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fergusson, David M; Horwood, L John; Boden, Joseph M

    2013-09-01

    There have been debates about the linkages between abortion and mental health. Few reviews have considered the extent to which abortion has therapeutic benefits that mitigate the mental health risks of abortion. The aim of this review was to conduct a re-appraisal of the evidence to examine the research hypothesis that abortion reduces rates of mental health problems in women having unwanted or unintended pregnancy. Analysis of recent reviews (Coleman, 2011; National Collaborating Centre for Mental Health, 2011) identified eight publications reporting 14 adjusted odds ratios (AORs) spanning five outcome domains: anxiety; depression; alcohol misuse; illicit drug use/misuse; and suicidal behaviour. For each outcome, pooled AORs were estimated using a random-effects model. There was consistent evidence to show that abortion was not associated with a reduction in rates of mental health problems (p>0.75). Abortion was associated with small to moderate increases in risks of anxiety (AOR 1.28, 95% CI 0.97-1.70; pabortion has therapeutic effects in reducing the mental health risks of unwanted or unintended pregnancy. There is suggestive evidence that abortion may be associated with small to moderate increases in risks of some mental health problems.

  9. Multi-model approach to petroleum resource appraisal using analytic methodologies for probabilistic systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crovelli, R.A.

    1988-01-01

    The geologic appraisal model that is selected for a petroleum resource assessment depends upon purpose of the assessment, basic geologic assumptions of the area, type of available data, time available before deadlines, available human and financial resources, available computer facilities, and, most importantly, the available quantitative methodology with corresponding computer software and any new quantitative methodology that would have to be developed. Therefore, different resource assessment projects usually require different geologic models. Also, more than one geologic model might be needed in a single project for assessing different regions of the study or for cross-checking resource estimates of the area. Some geologic analyses used in the past for petroleum resource appraisal involved play analysis. The corresponding quantitative methodologies of these analyses usually consisted of Monte Carlo simulation techniques. A probabilistic system of petroleum resource appraisal for play analysis has been designed to meet the following requirements: (1) includes a variety of geologic models, (2) uses an analytic methodology instead of Monte Carlo simulation, (3) possesses the capacity to aggregate estimates from many areas that have been assessed by different geologic models, and (4) runs quickly on a microcomputer. Geologic models consist of four basic types: reservoir engineering, volumetric yield, field size, and direct assessment. Several case histories and present studies by the U.S. Geological Survey are discussed. ?? 1988 International Association for Mathematical Geology.

  10. HOW INTERNAL RISK - BASED AUDIT APPRAISES THE EVALUATION OF RISKS MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Dorosh

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the nature and function of the internal risk-based audit process approach to create patterns of risks and methods of evaluation. Deals with the relationship between the level of maturity of the risk of the company and the method of risk-based internal audit. it was emphasized that internal auditing provides an independent and objective opinion to an organization’s management as to whether its risks are being managed to acceptable levels.

  11. Burden and Cognitive Appraisal of Stroke Survivors' Informal Caregivers: An Assessment of Depression Model With Mediating and Moderating Effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsai, Yi-Chen; Pai, Hsiang-Chu

    2016-04-01

    This study proposes and evaluates a model of depression that concerns the role of burden and cognitive appraisal as mediators or moderators of outcomes among stroke survivor caregivers. A total of 105 informal caregivers of stroke survivor completed the self-report measures of Caregiver Burden Inventory, Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale, and Cognitive Impact of Appraisal Scale. The Glasgow Coma Scale and Barthel Index were used by the researcher to examine the physical functional status of the survivor. Partial least squares (PLS) path modeling was used to estimate the parameters of a depression model that included mediating or moderating effects. The model shows that burden and impact of cognitive appraisal have a significant direct and indirect impact on depression, while survivor physical functional status does not have a direct impact. The model also demonstrates that burden and impact of cognitive appraisal separately play a mediating role between survivor physical functional status and caregiver depression. In addition, cognitive appraisal has a moderating influence on the relationship between burden and depression. Overall, survivor physical functional status, burden, and cognitive appraisal were the predictors of caregiver depression, explaining 47.1% of the variance. This study has shown that burden and cognitive appraisal are mediators that more fully explain the relationship between patient severity and caregiver depression. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Risk appraisal and risk communication: Some empirical data from the Netherlands reviewed

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wiegman, O.; Gutteling, Jan M.

    1995-01-01

    A discrepancy is observed between the general public's subjective perception 'of environmental hazards, which is characterized by feelings of concern and insecurity, and "objective risk." In this article, theoretical notions about subjective risk perception are reviewed and illustrated with (our

  13. Appraisals Generate Specific Configurations of Facial Muscle Movements in a Gambling Task: Evidence for the Component Process Model of Emotion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gentsch, Kornelia; Grandjean, Didier; Scherer, Klaus R

    2015-01-01

    Scherer's Component Process Model provides a theoretical framework for research on the production mechanism of emotion and facial emotional expression. The model predicts that appraisal results drive facial expressions, which unfold sequentially and cumulatively over time. In two experiments, we examined facial muscle activity changes (via facial electromyography recordings over the corrugator, cheek, and frontalis regions) in response to events in a gambling task. These events were experimentally manipulated feedback stimuli which presented simultaneous information directly affecting goal conduciveness (gambling outcome: win, loss, or break-even) and power appraisals (Experiment 1 and 2), as well as control appraisal (Experiment 2). We repeatedly found main effects of goal conduciveness (starting ~600 ms), and power appraisals (starting ~800 ms after feedback onset). Control appraisal main effects were inconclusive. Interaction effects of goal conduciveness and power appraisals were obtained in both experiments (Experiment 1: over the corrugator and cheek regions; Experiment 2: over the frontalis region) suggesting amplified goal conduciveness effects when power was high in contrast to invariant goal conduciveness effects when power was low. Also an interaction of goal conduciveness and control appraisals was found over the cheek region, showing differential goal conduciveness effects when control was high and invariant effects when control was low. These interaction effects suggest that the appraisal of having sufficient control or power affects facial responses towards gambling outcomes. The result pattern suggests that corrugator and frontalis regions are primarily related to cognitive operations that process motivational pertinence, whereas the cheek region would be more influenced by coping implications. Our results provide first evidence demonstrating that cognitive-evaluative mechanisms related to goal conduciveness, control, and power appraisals affect

  14. Engaging with Comparative Risk Appraisals: Public Views on Policy Priorities for Environmental Risk Governance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rocks, Sophie A; Schubert, Iljana; Soane, Emma; Black, Edgar; Muckle, Rachel; Petts, Judith; Prpich, George; Pollard, Simon J

    2017-09-01

    Communicating the rationale for allocating resources to manage policy priorities and their risks is challenging. Here, we demonstrate that environmental risks have diverse attributes and locales in their effects that may drive disproportionate responses among citizens. When 2,065 survey participants deployed summary information and their own understanding to assess 12 policy-level environmental risks singularly, their assessment differed from a prior expert assessment. However, participants provided rankings similar to those of experts when these same 12 risks were considered as a group, allowing comparison between the different risks. Following this, when individuals were shown the prior expert assessment of this portfolio, they expressed a moderate level of confidence with the combined expert analysis. These are important findings for the comprehension of policy risks that may be subject to augmentation by climate change, their representation alongside other threats within national risk assessments, and interpretations of agency for public risk management by citizens and others. © 2017 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

  15. Working Group 2: A critical appraisal of model simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MacCracken, M.; Cubasch, U.; Gates, W.L.; Harvey, L.D.; Hunt, B.; Katz, R.; Lorenz, E.; Manabe, S.; McAvaney, B.; McFarlane, N.; Meehl, G.; Meleshko, V.; Robock, A.; Stenchikov, G.; Stouffer, R.; Wang, W.C.; Washington, W.; Watts, R.; Zebiak, S.

    1990-01-01

    The complexity of the climate system and the absence of definitive analogs to the evolving climatic situation force use of theoretical models to project the future climatic influence of the relatively rapid and on-going increase in the atmospheric concentrations of CO 2 and other trace gases. A wide variety of climate models has been developed to look at particular aspects of the problem and to vary the mix of complexity and resource requirements needed to study various aspects of the problem; all such models have contributed to their insights of the problem

  16. Appraisal and Reliability of Variable Engagement Model Prediction ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The variable engagement model based on the stress - crack opening displacement relationship and, which describes the behaviour of randomly oriented steel fibres composite subjected to uniaxial tension has been evaluated so as to determine the safety indices associated when the fibres are subjected to pullout and with ...

  17. Appraisal of the coordinator-based transplant organizational model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Filipponi, F; De Simone, P; Mosca, F

    2005-01-01

    In 1999, the Italian Parliament passed a law aimed at setting the standards of practice and quality in organ, tissue and cell donation, and transplantation. For the first time in the history of Italian transplantation, a coordinator-based model reproducing some of the basic principles of the Spanish system was officially enacted by the Parliament, bringing to an end years of lacking regulation. What differentiates those coordinator-based systems adopted in Southern Europe from Northern European national and multinational transplant organizations is the functional integration of donor and transplant care activities enacted by national governments. The Italian model of transplant health care consists of four levels of transplant coordination: local, regional, interregional, and national. The latter is represented by Centro Nazionale Trapianti (CNT; the Italian National Center for Transplantation). CNT objectives consist of ensuring equitable access to donation and transplant care for all citizens according to the principles of the Italian National Health System. In achieving these goals, CNT acts in cooperation with three interregional transplant agencies: the Nord Italia Transplant program, the Associazione InterRegionale Trapianti, and the Organizzazione Centro Sud Trapianti. Whereas local and interregional coordinators are at the front line of all donation and transplant activities, regional and national coordinators function to monitor, direct, and plan donation and transplant health care activities. Based on the increase in donation and transplant activities recently achieved in those countries that have adopted a governmental coordinator-based transplant care model, we believe that such a system is appropriate to serve patients' interests according to the principles of subsidiary and equity. However, it should further be improved by expansion of the governance model throughout Europe, through implementation of current standards of care, and by adopting the

  18. Modelling farm vulnerability to flooding: A step toward vulnerability mitigation policies appraisal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brémond, P.; Abrami, G.; Blanc, C.; Grelot, F.

    2009-04-01

    flood. In the case of farm activities, vulnerability mitigation consists in implementing measures which can be: physical (equipment or electric power system elevation), organizational (emergency or recovery plan) or financial (insurance). These measures aim at decreasing the total damage incurred by farmers in case of flooding. For instance, if equipment is elevated, it will not suffer direct damage such as degradation. As a consequence, equipment will be available to continue production or recovery tasks, thus, avoiding indirect damage such as delays, indebtedness… The effects of these policies on farms, in particular vulnerability mitigation cannot be appraised using current methodologies mainly because they do not consider farm as a whole and focus on direct damage at the land plot scale (loss of yield). Moreover, since vulnerability mitigation policies are quite recent, few examples of implementation exist and no feedback experience can be processed. Meanwhile, decision makers and financial actors require more justification of the efficiency of public fund by economic appraisal of the projects. On the Rhône River, decision makers asked for an economic evaluation of the program of farm vulnerability mitigation they plan to implement. This implies to identify the effects of the measures to mitigate farm vulnerability, and to classify them by comparing their efficacy (avoided damage) and their cost of implementation. In this presentation, we propose and discuss a conceptual model of vulnerability at the farm scale. The modelling, in Unified Modelling Language, enabled to represent the ties between spatial, organizational and temporal dimensions, which are central to understanding of farm vulnerability and resilience to flooding. Through this modelling, we encompass three goals: To improve the comprehension of farm vulnerability and create a framework that allow discussion with experts of different disciplines as well as with local farmers; To identify data which

  19. Appraisal of Airport Alternatives in Greenland by the use of Risk Analysis and Monte Carlo Simulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen

    2007-01-01

    to the construction cost and the travel time sav-ings. The obtained model results aim to provide an input to informed decision-making based on an account of the level of desired risk as concerns feasibility risks. This level is presented as the probability of obtaining at least a benefit-cost ratio of a specified...

  20. Biodiesel from Specified Risk Material Tallow: An Appraisal of TSE Risks and their Reduction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baribeau, A.; Bradley, R.; Brown, P.; Goodwin, J.; Kihm, U.; Lotero, E.; O' Connor, D.; Schuppers, M.; Taylor, D.

    2007-03-15

    This document presents a systematic survey of current knowledge about the risk to human and animal health posed by the processing of tissues from animals potentially infected with transmissible spongiform encephalopathy (TSE, or 'prion disease') into biodiesel. It is organised into an introductory background section on TSE, followed by chapters treating the sequential stages of biodiesel production. The principal conclusions are: Animal tissue sources. The choice of geographic origin, based on published scientific evaluations of the risk of TSE to be present in a given country, can largely reduce or even eliminate the entry of contaminated tissue into the biodiesel feedstock. Further safeguards can be provided by selection of animal species not susceptible to TSE, and of tissues without any detectable infectivity even in susceptible species. None of these measures, however, would be applied to the biodiesel projects under consideration, which have the specific aim of using animals and tissues (including specified risk material, or SRM) considered to have sufficient potential risk to be unacceptable for use in food, feed, fertilisers, or pharmaceuticals (including biologicals and medical devices) and therefore are designated for other approved uses, or destruction. Tissue rendering to produce tallow. Experiments to test the survival of TSE infectivity in the products of rendering failed to detect any infectivity in the crude tallow fraction, even following processing methods that allowed survival of infectivity in the co-produced meat and bone meal fraction. It is therefore extremely unlikely that pure tallow originating from diseased animals would be infectious; however, lower grade tallow might contain infectious impurities. A requirement that tallow derived from SRM for use in biodiesel contain no detectable protein would reduce this possibility. Transesterification of tallow to biodiesel. Several steps in the manufacturing process have at least the

  1. Biodiesel from Specified Risk Material Tallow: An Appraisal of TSE Risks and their Reduction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baribeau, A; Bradley, R; Brown, P; Goodwin, J; Kihm, U; Lotero, E; O' Connor, D; Schuppers, M; Taylor, D

    2007-03-15

    This document presents a systematic survey of current knowledge about the risk to human and animal health posed by the processing of tissues from animals potentially infected with transmissible spongiform encephalopathy (TSE, or 'prion disease') into biodiesel. It is organised into an introductory background section on TSE, followed by chapters treating the sequential stages of biodiesel production. The principal conclusions are: Animal tissue sources. The choice of geographic origin, based on published scientific evaluations of the risk of TSE to be present in a given country, can largely reduce or even eliminate the entry of contaminated tissue into the biodiesel feedstock. Further safeguards can be provided by selection of animal species not susceptible to TSE, and of tissues without any detectable infectivity even in susceptible species. None of these measures, however, would be applied to the biodiesel projects under consideration, which have the specific aim of using animals and tissues (including specified risk material, or SRM) considered to have sufficient potential risk to be unacceptable for use in food, feed, fertilisers, or pharmaceuticals (including biologicals and medical devices) and therefore are designated for other approved uses, or destruction. Tissue rendering to produce tallow. Experiments to test the survival of TSE infectivity in the products of rendering failed to detect any infectivity in the crude tallow fraction, even following processing methods that allowed survival of infectivity in the co-produced meat and bone meal fraction. It is therefore extremely unlikely that pure tallow originating from diseased animals would be infectious; however, lower grade tallow might contain infectious impurities. A requirement that tallow derived from SRM for use in biodiesel contain no detectable protein would reduce this possibility. Transesterification of tallow to biodiesel. Several steps in the manufacturing process have at least the potential to

  2. Appraisement and benchmarking of third-party logistic service provider by exploration of risk-based approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nitin Kumar Sahu

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In the present era, Reverse Logistics Support has monitored as a momentous realm, where stuffs are transferred from point of consumption to origin. The companies who provide the logistic equipments, i.e. Truck, Joseph Cyril Bomford, and Shipment, etc. to its partner’s firms called Third-Party Logistics (3PL service provider. Today, the feasible 3PL service provider evaluation-opt problem is yet an amorous dilemma. The appraisement and benchmarking of logistics service providers in extent of index; allied risk-based indices and their interrelated metrics; outlooked as a great tool for each international firm, in order that firm could obtain their core goals. The novelty of manuscript is that here, a hairy-based approach has been integrated and then implemented upon a novel developed multi hierarchical third-party logistics (3PL service providers appraisement index in purpose to umpire the 3PL provider for their strong and ill’s core indices. Moreover, the overall score (Si system has also been carried out for benchmarking the 3PL provider companies, where s1 has been found as the best 3PL service provider. The developed approach enabled the manager of firms to make the verdict towards the best inclusive evaluation process of 3PL performance appraisement and benchmarking. A numerical illustration has also been provided to validate the verdict support system.

  3. MCDA and Risk Analysis in Transport Infrastructure Appraisals: the Rail Baltica Case

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ambrasaite, Inga; Barfod, Michael Bruhn; Salling, Kim Bang

    2011-01-01

    This paper sets out a decision support system (DSS), COSIMA, involving the combination of cost-benefit analysis and multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) for transport infrastructure appraisals embracing both economic and strategic impacts. However, some shortcomings appear in the methodology re...

  4. Socio-economic status by rapid appraisal is highly correlated with mortality risks in rural Africa

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Bodegom, D.; May, L.; Kuningas, M.; Kaptijn, R.; Thomese, G.C.F.; Meij, H.J.; Amankwa, J.; Westendorp, R.G.J.

    2009-01-01

    Socio-economic status is an important determinant of health and survival in rural Africa and necessitates a practical and valid instrument to implement in health studies. Our objective was to investigate the validity of the rapid appraisal method to assess socio-economic status and its ability to

  5. Re-thinking stages of cognitive development: an appraisal of connectionist models on the balance scale task

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Quinlan, P.T.; van der Maas, H.L.J.; Jansen, B.R.J.; Booij, O.; Rendell, M.

    2007-01-01

    The present paper re-appraises connectionist attempts to explain how human cognitive development appears to progress through a series of sequential stages. Models of performance on the Piagetian balance scale task are the focus of attention. Limitations of these models are discussed and replications

  6. Do (un)certainty appraisal tendencies reverse the influence of emotions on risk taking in sequential tasks?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bagneux, Virginie; Bollon, Thierry; Dantzer, Cécile

    2012-01-01

    According to the Appraisal-Tendency Framework (Han, Lerner, & Keltner, 2007), certainty-associated emotions increase risk taking compared with uncertainty-associated emotions. To date, this general effect has only been shown in static judgement and decision-making paradigms; therefore, the present study tested the effect of certainty on risk taking in a sequential decision-making task. We hypothesised that the effect would be reversed due to the kind of processing involved, as certainty is considered to encourage heuristic processing that takes into account the emotional cues arising from previous decisions, whereas uncertainty leads to more systematic processing. One hundred and one female participants were induced to feel one of three emotions (film clips) before performing a decision-making task involving risk (Game of Dice Task; Brand et al., 2005). As expected, the angry and happy participants (certainty-associated emotions) were more likely than the fearful participants (uncertainty-associated emotion) to make safe decisions (vs. risky decisions).

  7. Developing a fuzzy ANP model for performance appraisal based on firm strategy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seid Mohammad Reza Mirahmadi

    2018-10-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to develop a fuzzy Analytic Network Process (ANP model that has the ability to evaluate employee performance in different strategies. A team of experts in the field of strategic human resource management and senior management of an organization engaged in steel production were involved in the study. The data collection tool was a questionnaire that was designed based on the criteria of organization's performance appraisal system. The results showed that in cost leadership strategy, compliance of work hierarchy, quantity of work and the ability to make important decisions constituted the highest coefficients, while in the focus strategy, participate in group work, power of supervision and administration and decision making ability had the highest importance. In differentiation strategy, innovation and creativity, quality and offering constructive suggestions received higher ratings than other criteria. Finally, the developed model was used to evaluate the performance of a sample employee

  8. Personal resilience, cognitive appraisals, and coping: an integrative model of adjustment to abortion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Major, B; Richards, C; Cooper, M L; Cozzarelli, C; Zubek, J

    1998-03-01

    We hypothesized that the effects of personality (self-esteem, control, and optimism) on postabortion adaptation (distress, well-being, and decision satisfaction) would be fully mediated by preabortion cognitive appraisals (stress appraisals and self-efficacy appraisals) and postabortion coping. We further proposed that the effects of preabortion appraisals on adaptation would be fully mediated by postabortion coping. Results of a longitudinal study of 527 women who had first-trimester abortions supported our hypotheses. Women with more resilient personalities appraised their abortion as less stressful and had higher self-efficacy for coping with the abortion. More positive appraisals predicted greater acceptance/reframing coping and lesser avoidance/denial, venting, support seeking, and religious coping. Acceptance-reframing predicted better adjustment on all measures, whereas avoidance-denial and venting related to poorer adjustment on all measures. Greater support seeking was associated with reduced distress, and greater religious coping was associated with less decision satisfaction.

  9. Probabilistic risk assessment of insecticide concentrations in agricultural surface waters: a critical appraisal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stehle, Sebastian; Knäbel, Anja; Schulz, Ralf

    2013-08-01

    Due to the specific modes of action and application patterns of agricultural insecticides, the insecticide exposure of agricultural surface waters is characterized by infrequent and short-term insecticide concentration peaks of high ecotoxicological relevance with implications for both monitoring and risk assessment. Here, we apply several fixed-interval strategies and an event-based sampling strategy to two generalized and two realistic insecticide exposure patterns for typical agricultural streams derived from FOCUS exposure modeling using Monte Carlo simulations. Sampling based on regular intervals was found to be inadequate for the detection of transient insecticide concentrations, whereas event-triggered sampling successfully detected all exposure incidences at substantially lower analytical costs. Our study proves that probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) concepts in their present forms are not appropriate for a thorough evaluation of insecticide exposure. Despite claims that the PRA approach uses all available data to assess exposure and enhances risk assessment realism, we demonstrate that this concept is severely biased by the amount of insecticide concentrations below detection limits and therefore by the sampling designs. Moreover, actual insecticide exposure is of almost no relevance for PRA threshold level exceedance frequencies and consequential risk assessment outcomes. Therefore, we propose a concept that features a field-relevant ecological risk analysis of agricultural insecticide surface water exposure. Our study quantifies for the first time the environmental and economic consequences of inappropriate monitoring and risk assessment concepts used for the evaluation of short-term peak surface water pollutants such as insecticides.

  10. Effects of tailored message education about breast cancer risk appraisal for obese Korean women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Somi; Chung, ChaeWeon; Cochrane, Barbara B

    2013-11-01

    To examine the effects of tailored message education about breast cancer risk in obese Korean women. Pretest/post-test with two comparison treatments. Rural community settings in South Korea. Non-random sample of 64 obese women. Based on the Health Belief Model, tailored message education involved a one-session individual approach addressing cognitive, emotional, and behavioral domains. The comparison group received a one-time standard education group session. Data on breast cancer risk factors and mammography findings were recorded. Knowledge, awareness, emotional barriers, self-efficacy, and intent to screen and prevent breast cancer. Compared to standard education, tailored message education showed significantly higher score changes on awareness of personal risk (F = 5.21, p message education targeting breast cancer and risk associated with obesity is useful in breast cancer screening education. Future studies should incorporate individualized messages on nutrition, exercise, and cultural barriers to reduce breast cancer risk in obese women. Individual educational strategies can effectively enhance breast cancer prevention and early screening. Public and preventive education should include a focus on cultural, cognitive, and emotional domains. For obese women, a heightened awareness and self-efficacy may influence screening behaviors.

  11. Model of investment appraisal of high-rise construction with account of cost of land resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okolelova, Ella; Shibaeva, Marina; Trukhina, Natalya

    2018-03-01

    The article considers problems and potential of high-rise construction as a global urbanization. The results of theoretical and practical studies on the appraisal of investments in high-rise construction are provided. High-rise construction has a number of apparent upsides in modern terms of development of megapolises and primarily it is economically efficient. Amid serious lack of construction sites, skyscrapers successfully deal with the need of manufacturing, office and living premises. Nevertheless, there are plenty issues, which are related with high-rise construction, and only thorough scrutiny of them allow to estimate the real economic efficiency of this branch. The article focuses on the question of economic efficiency of high-rise construction. The suggested model allows adjusting the parameters of a facility under construction, setting the tone for market value as well as the coefficient for appreciation of the construction net cost, that depends on the number of storey's, in the form of function or discrete values.

  12. Appraisal Report

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schleimann, Finn; Enemark, Ulrika; Vagnby, Bo Hellisen

    Appraisal of continued support to Ghana's health sector for a third phase covering 2003 - 2007. Funding recommended with DKK 340 million over five years.......Appraisal of continued support to Ghana's health sector for a third phase covering 2003 - 2007. Funding recommended with DKK 340 million over five years....

  13. On Modeling Risk Shocks

    OpenAIRE

    Dorofeenko, Victor; Lee, Gabriel; Salyer, Kevin; Strobel, Johannes

    2016-01-01

    Within the context of a financial accelerator model, we model time-varying uncertainty (i.e. risk shocks) through the use of a mixture Normal model with time variation in the weights applied to the underlying distributions characterizing entrepreneur productivity. Specifically, we model capital producers (i.e. the entrepreneurs) as either low-risk (relatively small second moment for productivity) and high-risk (relatively large second moment for productivity) and the fraction of both types is...

  14. Predicting Reoffence in Sexual Offender Subtypes: A Prospective Validation Study of the German Version of the Sexual Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG)

    OpenAIRE

    Martin Rettenberger; Reinhard Eher

    2007-01-01

    This study is part of a prospective, longitudinal research project to evaluate the reliability and validity of different recidivism risk assessment methods for sexual offenders under community supervision for scientific and practical use in the German-speaking part of Europe. In this paper we present the German adaptation of the Sexual Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG), a specific risk assessment tool for sexual offenders that was developed and published in 1998 in Canada. We examined int...

  15. Central Pressure Appraisal: Clinical Validation of a Subject-Specific Mathematical Model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesco Tosello

    Full Text Available Current evidence suggests that aortic blood pressure has a superior prognostic value with respect to brachial pressure for cardiovascular events, but direct measurement is not feasible in daily clinical practice.The aim of the present study is the clinical validation of a multiscale mathematical model for non-invasive appraisal of central blood pressure from subject-specific characteristics.A total of 51 young male were selected for the present study. Aortic systolic and diastolic pressure were estimated with a mathematical model and were compared to the most-used non-invasive validated technique (SphygmoCor device, AtCor Medical, Australia. SphygmoCor was calibrated through diastolic and systolic brachial pressure obtained with a sphygmomanometer, while model inputs consist of brachial pressure, height, weight, age, left-ventricular end-systolic and end-diastolic volumes, and data from a pulse wave velocity study.Model-estimated systolic and diastolic central blood pressures resulted to be significantly related to SphygmoCor-assessed central systolic (r = 0.65 p <0.0001 and diastolic (r = 0.84 p<0.0001 blood pressures. The model showed a significant overestimation of systolic pressure (+7.8 (-2.2;14 mmHg, p = 0.0003 and a significant underestimation of diastolic values (-3.2 (-7.5;1.6, p = 0.004, which imply a significant overestimation of central pulse pressure. Interestingly, model prediction errors mirror the mean errors reported in large meta-analysis characterizing the use of the SphygmoCor when non-invasive calibration is performed.In conclusion, multi-scale mathematical model predictions result to be significantly related to SphygmoCor ones. Model-predicted systolic and diastolic aortic pressure resulted in difference of less than 10 mmHg in the 51% and 84% of the subjects, respectively, when compared with SphygmoCor-obtained pressures.

  16. The Impact of Two Workplace-Based Health Risk Appraisal Interventions on Employee Lifestyle Parameters, Mental Health and Work Ability: Results of a Randomized Controlled Trial

    Science.gov (United States)

    Addley, K.; Boyd, S.; Kerr, R.; McQuillan, P.; Houdmont, J.; McCrory, M.

    2014-01-01

    Health risk appraisals (HRA) are a common type of workplace health promotion programme offered by American employers. In the United Kingdom, evidence of their effectiveness for promoting health behaviour change remains inconclusive. This randomized controlled trial examined the effects of two HRA interventions on lifestyle parameters, mental…

  17. Bringing appraisal theory to environmental risk perception: a review of conceptual approaches of the past 40 years and suggestions for future research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Keller, Carmen; Bostrom, Ann; Kuttschreuter, M.; Savadori, Lucia; Spence, Alexia; White, Mathew

    2012-01-01

    An intensive program of 40 years of research has produced various conceptual cognitive and affective approaches to environmental risk perception. In this short review of the most relevant conceptual approaches, appraisal theory is presented as a useful means of integrating cognitive and affective

  18. Approaches to the risk assessment of genotoxic carcinogens in food: a critical appraisal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Brien, J; Renwick, A G; Constable, A; Dybing, E; Müller, D J G; Schlatter, J; Slob, W; Tueting, W; van Benthem, J; Williams, G M; Wolfreys, A

    2006-10-01

    The present paper examines the particular difficulties presented by low levels of food-borne DNA-reactive genotoxic carcinogens, some of which may be difficult to eliminate completely from the diet, and proposes a structured approach for the evaluation of such compounds. While the ALARA approach is widely applicable to all substances in food that are both carcinogenic and genotoxic, it does not take carcinogenic potency into account and, therefore, does not permit prioritisation based on potential risk or concern. In the absence of carcinogenicity dose-response data, an assessment based on comparison with an appropriate threshold of toxicological concern may be possible. When carcinogenicity data from animal bioassays are available, a useful analysis is achieved by the calculation of margins of exposure (MOEs), which can be used to compare animal potency data with human exposure scenarios. Two reference points on the dose-response relationship that can be used for MOE calculation were examined; the T25 value, which is derived from linear extrapolation, and the BMDL10, which is derived from mathematical modelling of the dose-response data. The above approaches were applied to selected food-borne genotoxic carcinogens. The proposed approach is applicable to all substances in food that are DNA-reactive genotoxic carcinogens and enables the formulation of appropriate semi-quantitative advice to risk managers.

  19. Understanding self-appraisal of HIV-infection risk among young ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A major component of HIV prevention is to encourage individuals to appreciate their personal risk of contracting the virus with the aim of encouraging them to take steps to reduce the risks. This article addresses the accuracy of an individual's risk assessment by matching this with individual's reported risk behaviours in order ...

  20. Research on Appraisal System of Procurator Performance by Using High-Order CFA Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yong-mao Huang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The prosecutor is the main body of procuratorial organs. The performance appraisal system plays an important role in promoting the work efficiency of procurator. In this paper, we establish the performance appraisal system of procurators by high-order confirmatory factor analysis method and evaluate procurators’ performance by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on the 360 degrees. The results have some help to performance management of procuratorial organs.

  1. Data envelopment analysis model for the appraisal and relative performance evaluation of nurses at an intensive care unit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osman, Ibrahim H; Berbary, Lynn N; Sidani, Yusuf; Al-Ayoubi, Baydaa; Emrouznejad, Ali

    2011-10-01

    The appraisal and relative performance evaluation of nurses are very important and beneficial for both nurses and employers in an era of clinical governance, increased accountability and high standards of health care services. They enhance and consolidate the knowledge and practical skills of nurses by identification of training and career development plans as well as improvement in health care quality services, increase in job satisfaction and use of cost-effective resources. In this paper, a data envelopment analysis (DEA) model is proposed for the appraisal and relative performance evaluation of nurses. The model is validated on thirty-two nurses working at an Intensive Care Unit (ICU) at one of the most recognized hospitals in Lebanon. The DEA was able to classify nurses into efficient and inefficient ones. The set of efficient nurses was used to establish an internal best practice benchmark to project career development plans for improving the performance of other inefficient nurses. The DEA result confirmed the ranking of some nurses and highlighted injustice in other cases that were produced by the currently practiced appraisal system. Further, the DEA model is shown to be an effective talent management and motivational tool as it can provide clear managerial plans related to promoting, training and development activities from the perspective of nurses, hence increasing their satisfaction, motivation and acceptance of appraisal results. Due to such features, the model is currently being considered for implementation at ICU. Finally, the ratio of the number DEA units to the number of input/output measures is revisited with new suggested values on its upper and lower limits depending on the type of DEA models and the desired number of efficient units from a managerial perspective.

  2. A risk governance approach for high-level waste in Belgium: A process appraisal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laes, Erik; Eggermont, Gilbert; Bombaerts, Gunter

    2010-09-01

    The Belgian nuclear waste management organisation (NIRAS-ONDRAF) has recently started up a public debate on the strategic waste management options for the intermediate- and high-level radioactive waste (cat. B and C waste). This public debate takes place in the context of a (mandatory) strategic environmental impact assessment (SEA) procedure. The paper proposes a critical investigation of four interrelated aspects of this procedure from the point of view of 'good governance': assessment of the remaining uncertainties, guardianship of the democratic process, the organisation of expertise and the interpretation of transgenerational ethics and distributive justice in the new crisis context of globalization and failure of electricity liberalisation. We argue that - in spite of the overall soundness of the geological disposal option - many uncertainties remain: a new technical concept needs to be demonstrated and international financial management needs to be organised. On the process side we argue that although NIRAS-ONDRAF can take up a role as initiator of a public participation process, it can hardly act as a guardian of this process. The debate must be lifted above the local level, opened up to new actors with an active role of the safety authorities and guarded by a non-involved organisation. A condition for success is the creation of critical awareness and the capacity to manage controversy in future with critical expertise. Referring to the RISCOM model for transparent risk communication, we suggest some improvements to the process that is currently taking place

  3. Melanoma Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing melanoma cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  4. Appraisal of individual radiation risk in the context of probabilistic exposures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bohnenblust, H.; Pretre, S.

    1990-01-01

    There exists a growing desire to base safety criteria in different fields on the same principles. The current approach by the international Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) to control radiation exposure touches many aspects such as social, psychological, or economic factors that are important for such principles. This paper attempts to further explore possible ways of defining a common basis for dealing with radiation risks and other safety problems. Specifically, it introduces the following issues: different types of risk are judged differently. To account for this, the concept of risk categories is introduced. The dimension of time may play an important role. There is a difference between an immediate death and a death occurring 20 years after exposure to radiation. Effects such as reduced quality of life after exposure and reduction of lifetime expectancy are discussed. The paper suggests to introduce an individual risk equivalent which allows to compare risks as defined in various fields. Furthermore, it suggests the use of risk acceptance criteria which depend on the different categories of risk

  5. Risk appraisal in the radiotherapy patient: “V. I. Lenin” Hospital in Holguin province

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    González López, Dagoberto Eloy; Borjas Hernández, Pedro

    2015-01-01

    An accident is usually caused by the simultaneous occurrence of human errors and equipment failure. In medical applications, the radiation therapy is the increased risk of complexity presented by treatments in patients. The different accidents that have occurred in the world in this practice show the need for safety analysis in order to identify and prevent accidental exposures. In this regard, the effectiveness of the semiquantitative method of “risk matrices”, which consists of a combined analysis of the frequency of occurrence of the event causing the accident, the chance of human errors or failure of the safety barriers, in addition to recognizing the seriousness of the consequences resulting from such events; which define the acceptability criteria based on risk. In this research, this method was applied for safety evaluation analysis of the radiotherapy service at Holguin hospital, which uses a cobalt 60 Theratron Phoenix equipment. The study allowed to quantify the radiotherapy service strengths, to identify the most significant contributors to risk events from the viewpoint of safety, as well as to adopt the most appropriate mitigation measures in order to decrease the occurrence of such accidents. The risk of a large number of accident sequences caused by all possible human errors and equipment failures in the service was estimated, and it was also observed and consequently concluded that none of the accident sequences was considered as very high risk thus confirming that there is no imminent risk which could result in an accident at this facility. (author)

  6. Using Expectancy Theory to Explain Performance Appraisal ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    pc

    2018-03-05

    Mar 5, 2018 ... appraisal conducting style, the relation between the performance appraisal system and task ... the article first explains the theory model which is based expectancy theory. II. ... which in return lead to rewards. According to [12],.

  7. Credit Risk Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lando, David

    Credit risk is today one of the most intensely studied topics in quantitative finance. This book provides an introduction and overview for readers who seek an up-to-date reference to the central problems of the field and to the tools currently used to analyze them. The book is aimed at researchers...... and students in finance, at quantitative analysts in banks and other financial institutions, and at regulators interested in the modeling aspects of credit risk. David Lando considers the two broad approaches to credit risk analysis: that based on classical option pricing models on the one hand...

  8. Exogenous factors and market value: an appraisal model of capital gains in urban redevelopment programs in public/ private partnerships

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesco Calabrò

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available The proposed article aims to illustrate an experimental model applicable, in the planning stage, to an appraisal of the capital gains in a residential requalification in public/ private partnership. The model develops a method using a conventional cost value through a multicriteria model which evaluates the influence of qualitative exogenous variables to the market value of the property. The aim is to develop a synthetic procedure, transparent, shared and easy to use by the public authorities, in determining the total benefits associated with urban transformations, in order to achieve a fair sharing of profits between public and private entities.

  9. Negative Trauma Appraisals and PTSD Symptoms in Sri Lankan Adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ponnamperuma, Thyagi; Nicolson, Nancy A

    2016-02-01

    The cognitive model posits that negative appraisals play an important role in posttraumatic stress disorder, in children as well as in adults. This study examined correlates of negative appraisals in relation to trauma exposure and their relationship to posttraumatic stress symptoms (PTSS) in 414 Sri Lankan adolescents, aged 12 to 16, living in areas impacted in varying degrees by the 2004 tsunami. In 2008, participants completed measures of negative appraisals, lifetime traumatic events, posttraumatic stress symptoms, internalizing symptoms, ongoing adversity, and social support. The majority (70 %) of the participants reported multiple traumatic events; 25 % met DSM-IV criteria for full or partial PTSD. Adolescents who had experienced more severe events, abusive events, greater cumulative trauma, or greater current adversity reported more negative appraisals. In regression analyses controlling for known risk factors such as female gender, cumulative trauma, ongoing adversity, and low social support, negative appraisals were the best predictor of PTSS, explaining 22 % of the variance. This relationship appeared specific to PTSS, as negative appraisals did not predict internalizing symptoms. Findings confirm the link between negative cognitions concerning traumatic events and persistent PTSS in adolescents, but longitudinal studies are needed to determine whether appraisals contribute to symptom maintenance over time.

  10. The Somatic Appraisal Model of Affect: Paradigm for Educational Neuroscience and Neuropedagogy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patten, Kathryn E.

    2011-01-01

    This chapter presents emotion as a function of brain-body interaction, as a vital part of a multi-tiered phylogenetic set of neural mechanisms, evoked by both instinctive processes and learned appraisal systems, and argues to establish the primacy of emotion in relation to cognition. Primarily based on Damasio's somatic marker hypothesis, but also…

  11. Breast cancer risks and risk prediction models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engel, Christoph; Fischer, Christine

    2015-02-01

    BRCA1/2 mutation carriers have a considerably increased risk to develop breast and ovarian cancer. The personalized clinical management of carriers and other at-risk individuals depends on precise knowledge of the cancer risks. In this report, we give an overview of the present literature on empirical cancer risks, and we describe risk prediction models that are currently used for individual risk assessment in clinical practice. Cancer risks show large variability between studies. Breast cancer risks are at 40-87% for BRCA1 mutation carriers and 18-88% for BRCA2 mutation carriers. For ovarian cancer, the risk estimates are in the range of 22-65% for BRCA1 and 10-35% for BRCA2. The contralateral breast cancer risk is high (10-year risk after first cancer 27% for BRCA1 and 19% for BRCA2). Risk prediction models have been proposed to provide more individualized risk prediction, using additional knowledge on family history, mode of inheritance of major genes, and other genetic and non-genetic risk factors. User-friendly software tools have been developed that serve as basis for decision-making in family counseling units. In conclusion, further assessment of cancer risks and model validation is needed, ideally based on prospective cohort studies. To obtain such data, clinical management of carriers and other at-risk individuals should always be accompanied by standardized scientific documentation.

  12. Anomalous aortic origin of coronary arteries from the opposite sinus: A critical appraisal of risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peñalver Josiah M

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Anomalous aortic origin of the coronary artery (AAOCA from the opposite sinus of Valsalva with an interarterial course has received much attention due to its association with sudden death in otherwise healthy individuals. AAOCA is relatively common and may have significant public health implications. While our knowledge of its pathophysiology and natural history remains incomplete, an emphasis has been placed on surgical correction. Discussion In 2005 we published a review examining the rates of sudden death with AAOCA, as well as complications of surgical management. Evidence now points even more strongly to lower rates of sudden death, while surgical outcomes data now better documents associated risks. Summary Armed with this updated information, we agree with the need for a national registry to better track patients with AAOCA. We submit that the risks of surgical management outweigh any benefits in the asymptomatic patient with anomalous right coronary artery, and expectant management should also be strongly considered even in asymptomatic patients with anomalous left coronary artery.

  13. Transport appraisal and Monte Carlo simulation by use of the CBA-DK model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen

    2011-01-01

    calculation, where risk analysis is carried out using Monte Carlo simulation. Special emphasis has been placed on the separation between inherent randomness in the modeling system and lack of knowledge. These two concepts have been defined in terms of variability (ontological uncertainty) and uncertainty......This paper presents the Danish CBA-DK software model for assessment of transport infrastructure projects. The assessment model is based on both a deterministic calculation following the cost-benefit analysis (CBA) methodology in a Danish manual from the Ministry of Transport and on a stochastic...... (epistemic uncertainty). After a short introduction to deterministic calculation resulting in some evaluation criteria a more comprehensive evaluation of the stochastic calculation is made. Especially, the risk analysis part of CBA-DK, with considerations about which probability distributions should be used...

  14. Real-time appraisal of the spatially distributed heat related health risk and energy demand of cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keramitsoglou, Iphigenia; Kiranoudis, Chris T.; Sismanidis, Panagiotis

    2016-08-01

    The Urban Heat Island (UHI) is an adverse environmental effect of urbanization that increases the energy demand of cities, impacts the human health, and intensifies and prolongs heatwave events. To facilitate the study of UHIs the Institute for Astronomy, Astrophysics, Space Applications and Remote Sensing of the National Observatory of Athens (IAASARS/NOA) has developed an operational real-time system that exploits remote sensing image data from Meteosat Second Generation - Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (MSG-SEVIRI) and generates high spatiotemporal land surface temperature (LST) and 2 m air temperature (TA) time series. These datasets form the basis for the generation of higher value products and services related to energy demand and heat-related health issues. These products are the heatwave hazard (HZ); the HUMIDEX (i.e. an index that describes the temperature felt by an individual exposed to heat and humidity); and the cooling degrees (CD; i.e. a measure that reflects the energy needed to cool a building). The spatiotemporal characteristics of HZ, HUMIDEX and CD are unique (1 km/5 min) and enable the appraisal of the spatially distributed heat related health risk and energy demand of cities. In this paper, the real time generation of the high spatiotemporal HZ, HUMIDEX and CD products is discussed. In addition, a case study corresponding to Athens' September 2015 heatwave is presented so as to demonstrate their capabilities. The overall aim of the system is to provide high quality data to several different end users, such as health responders, and energy suppliers. The urban thermal monitoring web service is available at http://snf-652558.vm.okeanos.grnet.gr/treasure/portal/info.html.

  15. A further extension of the Extended Parallel Process Model (E-EPPM): implications of cognitive appraisal theory of emotion and dispositional coping style.

    Science.gov (United States)

    So, Jiyeon

    2013-01-01

    For two decades, the extended parallel process model (EPPM; Witte, 1992 ) has been one of the most widely used theoretical frameworks in health risk communication. The model has gained much popularity because it recognizes that, ironically, preceding fear appeal models do not incorporate the concept of fear as a legitimate and central part of them. As a remedy to this situation, the EPPM aims at "putting the fear back into fear appeals" ( Witte, 1992 , p. 330). Despite this attempt, however, this article argues that the EPPM still does not fully capture the essence of fear as an emotion. Specifically, drawing upon Lazarus's (1991 ) cognitive appraisal theory of emotion and the concept of dispositional coping style ( Miller, 1995 ), this article seeks to further extend the EPPM. The revised EPPM incorporates a more comprehensive perspective on risk perceptions as a construct involving both cognitive and affective aspects (i.e., fear and anxiety) and integrates the concept of monitoring and blunting coping style as a moderator of further information seeking regarding a given risk topic.

  16. Models of Credit Risk Measurement

    OpenAIRE

    Hagiu Alina

    2011-01-01

    Credit risk is defined as that risk of financial loss caused by failure by the counterparty. According to statistics, for financial institutions, credit risk is much important than market risk, reduced diversification of the credit risk is the main cause of bank failures. Just recently, the banking industry began to measure credit risk in the context of a portfolio along with the development of risk management started with models value at risk (VAR). Once measured, credit risk can be diversif...

  17. Construction and the Analysis of the Models of Mass Appraisal of Residential Real Estate in Riga and Daugavpils

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oksana Ruzha

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Mass appraisal of real estate is one of the most classical economic tasks in accomplishing of which econometric modeling is successfully applied. The following article dwells upon three models used for estimating the commercial value of residential real estate. For the purposes of the research the market of residential real estate of two cities (i.e. capital of Latvia - Riga and the regional centre – Daugavpils has been studied. The statistical analysis of the sales data for 2010-2011 has allowed distinguishing pricing factors of the residential real estate, both at the regional level, and at the level of a building and object of real estate. Modeling was conducted with the use of correlation and regression and cluster analyses. The additive and multiplicative models based on the regression equation and the model of the cluster analysis based on the method of parallel sectioning have been presented

  18. Results from evaluations of models and cost-effectiveness tools to support introduction decisions for new vaccines need critical appraisal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moorthy Vasee

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The World Health Organization (WHO recommends that the cost-effectiveness (CE of introducing new vaccines be considered before such a programme is implemented. However, in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs, it is often challenging to perform and interpret the results of model-based economic appraisals of vaccines that benefit from locally relevant data. As a result, WHO embarked on a series of consultations to assess economic analytical tools to support vaccine introduction decisions for pneumococcal, rotavirus and human papillomavirus vaccines. The objectives of these assessments are to provide decision makers with a menu of existing CE tools for vaccines and their characteristics rather than to endorse the use of a single tool. The outcome will provide policy makers in LMICs with information about the feasibility of applying these models to inform their own decision making. We argue that if models and CE analyses are used to inform decisions, they ought to be critically appraised beforehand, including a transparent evaluation of their structure, assumptions and data sources (in isolation or in comparison to similar tools, so that decision makers can use them while being fully aware of their robustness and limitations.

  19. A first appraisal of prognostic ocean DMS models and prospects for their use in climate models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Le Clainche, Yvonnick; Vezina, Alain; Levasseur, Maurice; Cropp, Roger A.; Gunson, Jim R.; Vallina, Sergio M.; Vogt, Meike; Lancelot, Christiane; Allen, J. Icarus; Archer, Stephen D.; Bopp, Laurent; Deal, Clara; Elliott, Scott; Jin, Meibing; Malin, Gill; Schoemann, Veronique; Simo, Rafel; Six, Katharina D.; Stefels, Jacqueline

    2010-01-01

    Ocean dimethylsulfide (DMS) produced by marine biota is the largest natural source of atmospheric sulfur, playing a major role in the formation and evolution of aerosols, and consequently affecting climate. Several dynamic process-based DMS models have been developed over the last decade, and work

  20. Stigma, Reflected Appraisals, and Recovery Outcomes in Mental Illness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markowitz, Fred E.; Angell, Beth; Greenberg, Jan S.

    2011-01-01

    Drawing on modified labeling theory and the reflected appraisals process and using longitudinal data from 129 mothers and their adult children with schizophrenia, we estimate models of the effects of mothers' stigmatized identity appraisals of their mentally ill children on reflected and self-appraisals, and how appraisals affect outcomes…

  1. The trigger values in the environmental risk assessment for (veterinary) medicines in the European Union: a critical appraisal

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Montforts MHMM; SEC

    2005-01-01

    A critical appraisal of the data used for the establishment of the trigger values for the exposure of the aquatic environment to human medicines and the terrestrial environment to veterinary medicines leads to the recommendation to change these values. The (draft) technical guidance documents in

  2. Risk-based approach to appraise valve closure in the clam Corbicula fluminea in response to waterborne metals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liao, C.-M.; Jou, L.-J.; Chen, B.-C.

    2005-01-01

    We developed a risk-based approach to assess how the valve closure behavior of Asiatic clam Corbicula fluminea responds to waterborne copper (Cu) and cadmium (Cd). We reanalyzed the valve closure response data from published literature to reconstruct the response time-dependent dose-response profiles based on an empirical three-parameter Hill equation model. We integrated probabilistic exposure profiles of measured environmental Cu and Cd concentrations in the western coastal areas of Taiwan with the reconstructed dose-response relationships at different integration times of response to quantitatively estimate the valve response risk. The risk assessment results implicate exposure to waterborne Cu and Cd may pose no significant risk to clam valve activity in the short-time response periods (e.g., <30 min), yet a relative high risk for valve closure response to waterborne Cu at response times greater than 120 min is alarming. We successfully linked reconstructed dose-response profiles and EC50-time relationships associated with the fitted daily valve opening/closing rhythm characterized by a three-parameter lognormal function to predict the time-varying bivalve closure rhythm response to waterborne metals. We parameterized the proposed predictive model that should encourage a risk-management framework for discussion of future design of biological monitoring systems. - A model was developed to link valve closure in clams to concentrations of metals in water

  3. Parental influences on the self-esteem of gay and lesbian youths: a reflected appraisals model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savin-Williams, R C

    1989-01-01

    Based on a population of 317 gay and lesbian youths, the current investigation explores the appropriateness of a reflected appraisals perspective in predicting the degree to which parental attitudes, as perceived by youth, affects their self-esteem and comfortableness being gay. A lesbian was most comfortable with her sexual orientation if she also reported that her parents accepted her homosexuality; these variables did not, however, predict her level of self-esteem. Among the gay males, parental acceptance predicted comfortable being gay if the parents were also perceived as important components of a youth's self-worth; a male most comfortable with his sexual orientation had the highest level of self-esteem. Results are discussed in terms of: (a) sex of parent, (b) sex-role development, (c) comparisons of gays and lesbians, and (d) research on gay and lesbian youth.

  4. Assessment of site-scale hydrogeological modelling possibilities in crystalline hard rock for safety appraisal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Geier, J. [Cleanwater Hardrock Consulting, Corvallis, OR (United States); Luukkonen, A.

    2012-09-15

    conditions. Current tools also allow comparisons in terms of time-dependent flow and hydrogeochemistry, for the purpose of model calibration and confirmation. The growth in model complexity has led to increased realism, but at a cost of increased computational demands which can limit possibilities to explore uncertainty. Future technological improvements may depend on proprietary tools that raise obstacles for regulatory review. An additional risk is that particular models may be developed to such a level of sophistication that viable alternative models might be discounted, due to lack of comparable resources. Important weaknesses in the state-of-the-art include the limited understanding - both in terms of concepts and data - for periglacial and glacial environments, which must be considered for assessment periods on the order of 100,000 years. (orig.)

  5. Guidance for implementing an environmental, safety and health assurance program. Volume 2. A model plan for environmental, safety and health staff audits and appraisals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ellingson, A.C.

    1980-09-01

    This is 1 of 15 documents designed to illustrate how an Environmental, Safety and Health (ES and H) Assurance Program may be implemented. The generic definition of ES and H Assurance Programs is given in a companion document entitled An Environmental, Safety and Health Assurance Program Standard. This document is concerned with ES and H audit and appraisal activities of an ES and H Staff Organization as they might be performed in an institution whose ES and H program is based upon the ES and H Assurance Program Standard. An annotated model plan for ES and H Staff audits and appraisals is presented and discussed

  6. Handbook for Conducting Standard CMMI Appraisal Method for Process Improvement (SCAMPI) B and C Appraisals, Version 1.1

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Hayes, Will; Miluk, Gene; Ming, Lisa; Glover, Margaret; Bisgrove, Jane; Cort, Corrine; Penn, Lynn; Jacobson, Nils; Beynon, Don; Allgood, Bruce

    2005-01-01

    The Standard CMMI Appraisal Method for Process Improvement (SCAMPI) provides a well-defined, publicly available set of methodologies for providing appraisals relative to Capability Maturity Model (trademark) Integration (CMMI) models...

  7. Custom v. Standardized Risk Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zura Kakushadze

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available We discuss when and why custom multi-factor risk models are warranted and give source code for computing some risk factors. Pension/mutual funds do not require customization but standardization. However, using standardized risk models in quant trading with much shorter holding horizons is suboptimal: (1 longer horizon risk factors (value, growth, etc. increase noise trades and trading costs; (2 arbitrary risk factors can neutralize alpha; (3 “standardized” industries are artificial and insufficiently granular; (4 normalization of style risk factors is lost for the trading universe; (5 diversifying risk models lowers P&L correlations, reduces turnover and market impact, and increases capacity. We discuss various aspects of custom risk model building.

  8. Model Risk in Portfolio Optimization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Stefanovits

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available We consider a one-period portfolio optimization problem under model uncertainty. For this purpose, we introduce a measure of model risk. We derive analytical results for this measure of model risk in the mean-variance problem assuming we have observations drawn from a normal variance mixture model. This model allows for heavy tails, tail dependence and leptokurtosis of marginals. The results show that mean-variance optimization is seriously compromised by model uncertainty, in particular, for non-Gaussian data and small sample sizes. To mitigate these shortcomings, we propose a method to adjust the sample covariance matrix in order to reduce model risk.

  9. Promoting independence, health and well-being for older people: a feasibility study of computer-aided health and social risk appraisal system in primary care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walters, Kate; Kharicha, Kalpa; Goodman, Claire; Handley, Melanie; Manthorpe, Jill; Cattan, Mima; Morris, Steve; Clarke, Caroline S; Round, Jeff; Iliffe, Steve

    2017-03-24

    With population ageing, research is needed into new low-cost, scalable methods of effective promotion of health and wellbeing for older people. We aimed to assess feasibility, reach and costs of implementing a new tailored computer-aided health and social risk appraisal system in primary care. Design: Feasibility study. Five General Practices in London (Ealing) and Hertfordshire, United Kingdom (UK) Participants: Random sample of patients aged 65 + years. The Multi-dimensional Risk Appraisal for Older people (MRA-O) system includes: 1) Postal questionnaire including health, lifestyle, social and environmental domains; 2) Software system generating a personalised feedback report with advice on health and wellbeing; 3) Follow-up of people with new concerning or complex needs by GPs or practice nurses. Feasibility of implementation; participant wellbeing, functional ability and quality of life; social needs, health risks, potential lifestyle changes; and costs of implementation. Response rates to initial postal invitations were low (526/1550, 34%). Of these, 454/526 (86%) completed MRA-O assessments. Compared to local UK Census data on older people, participants were younger, more were owner-occupiers and fewer were from ethnic minority groups than expected. A range of problems was identified by participants, including pain in last week (269/438, 61.4%), low physical activity (173/453, 38.2%), sedentary lifestyle (174/447, 38.3%), falls (117/439, 26.7%), incontinence (111/441 25.2%), impaired vision 116/451 (25.7%), impaired hearing (145/431, 33.6%), depressed mood (71/451, 15.7%), impaired memory (44/444 9.9%), social isolation (46/449, 10.2%) and loneliness (31/442, 7.0%). Self-rated health was good/excellent in 312/437 (71.4%), and quality of life and well-being were slightly above age-specific population norms. Implementation costs were low. Practices reviewed medical records of 143/454 (31.5%) of participants as a consequence of their responses, and actively

  10. Risk based modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chapman, O.J.V.; Baker, A.E.

    1993-01-01

    Risk based analysis is a tool becoming available to both engineers and managers to aid decision making concerning plant matters such as In-Service Inspection (ISI). In order to develop a risk based method, some form of Structural Reliability Risk Assessment (SRRA) needs to be performed to provide a probability of failure ranking for all sites around the plant. A Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) can then be carried out to combine these possible events with the capability of plant safety systems and procedures, to establish the consequences of failure for the sites. In this way the probability of failures are converted into a risk based ranking which can be used to assist the process of deciding which sites should be included in an ISI programme. This paper reviews the technique and typical results of a risk based ranking assessment carried out for nuclear power plant pipework. (author)

  11. Wildfire Risk Main Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — The model combines three modeled fire behavior parameters (rate of spread, flame length, crown fire potential) and one modeled ecological health measure (fire regime...

  12. Risk Prediction Models for Incident Heart Failure: A Systematic Review of Methodology and Model Performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahle, Berhe W; Owen, Alice J; Chin, Ken Lee; Reid, Christopher M

    2017-09-01

    Numerous models predicting the risk of incident heart failure (HF) have been developed; however, evidence of their methodological rigor and reporting remains unclear. This study critically appraises the methods underpinning incident HF risk prediction models. EMBASE and PubMed were searched for articles published between 1990 and June 2016 that reported at least 1 multivariable model for prediction of HF. Model development information, including study design, variable coding, missing data, and predictor selection, was extracted. Nineteen studies reporting 40 risk prediction models were included. Existing models have acceptable discriminative ability (C-statistics > 0.70), although only 6 models were externally validated. Candidate variable selection was based on statistical significance from a univariate screening in 11 models, whereas it was unclear in 12 models. Continuous predictors were retained in 16 models, whereas it was unclear how continuous variables were handled in 16 models. Missing values were excluded in 19 of 23 models that reported missing data, and the number of events per variable was models. Only 2 models presented recommended regression equations. There was significant heterogeneity in discriminative ability of models with respect to age (P prediction models that had sufficient discriminative ability, although few are externally validated. Methods not recommended for the conduct and reporting of risk prediction modeling were frequently used, and resulting algorithms should be applied with caution. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Modelling allergenic risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Birot, Sophie

    combines second order Monte-Carlo simulations with Bayesian inferences [13]. An alternative method using second order Monte-Carlo simulations was proposed to take into account the uncertainty from the inputs. The uncertainty propagation from the inputs to the risk of allergic reaction was also evaluated...... countries is proposed. Thus, the allergen risk assessment can be performed cross-nationally and for the correct food group. Then the two probabilistic risk assessment methods usually used were reviewed and compared. First order Monte-Carlo simulations are used in one method [14], whereas the other one......Up to 20 million Europeans suffer from food allergies. Due to the lack of knowledge about why food allergies developed or how to protect allergic consumers from the offending food, food allergy management is mainly based on food allergens avoidance. The iFAAM project (Integrated approaches to Food...

  14. Scrutinizing individuals’ leisure-shopping travel decisions to appraise activity-based models of travel demand

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D. Kusamastuti (Diana); E. Hannes (Els); D. Janssens (Davy); G. Wets (Geert); B.G.C. Dellaert (Benedict)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractActivity-based models for modeling individuals’ travel demand have come to a new era in addressing individuals’ and households’ travel behavior on a disaggregate level. Quantitative data are mainly used in this domain to enable a realistic representation of individual choices and a true

  15. The McDonaldization of appraisal? Doctors' views of the early impacts of medical revalidation in the United Kingdom.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Archer, Julian; Nunn, Suzanne; Regan de Bere, Sam

    2017-09-01

    Medical regulation is rapidly changing with claims that systems such as revalidation/relicensing will reassure the public. Yet the impact of such initiatives is unknown. Using the principles of efficiency, calculability, predictability and control through technology, identified by Ritzer, and exampled by the McDonalds business model, we analyzed interviews with doctors between May 2012-Dec 2013 which focused on doctor experiences of appraisal and revalidation in SW England. The research found significant changes in appraisals since the launch of revalidation in December 2012. Appraisal has been standardized with a list of supporting information that must be collected by doctors. The success of implementation is measured in the numbers of appraisals completed but less is known about the quality of the appraisal itself. Such efficiencies have been supported by IT systems that themselves might be at risk of driving the process. There are potential advantages to McDonaldization including appraisals available to all, not just for doctors working in the NHS, and a potentially more appetizing recipe for their completion. As yet a state of McAppraisal has not been reached; with a complete transfer of trust in the doctor to trust in the appraisal process within revalidation. However policymakers will need to continue to ensure that regulatory initiatives, such as revalidation, are not just a process for their own sake. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Do screening-preventative interventions in asymptomatic pregnancies reduce the risk of preterm delivery--a critical appraisal of the literature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varma, Rajesh; Gupta, Janesh K; James, David K; Kilby, Mark D

    2006-08-01

    Recent research has suggested that women who experience preterm delivery (PTD) may be identified earlier in pregnancy and before onset of symptoms. Interventions commenced at this earlier asymptomatic stage may offer an opportunity to prevent PTD or lengthen gestation sufficiently to reduce adverse perinatal outcome. Our objective was to examine the evidence that supports or refutes this approach to preventing PTD. We therefore conducted a systematic search and critical appraisal of the identified literature. We found evidence that introducing screening-preventative strategies for asymptomatic pregnancies may reduce the rate of PTD. Evidence for screening and selective treatment exists for: asymptomatic bacteriuria; bacterial vaginosis in low-risk population groups; elective cervical cerclage in high-risk pregnancies; indicated cervical cerclage in women with short cervical length on ultrasound; prophylactic progesterone supplementation in high-risk pregnancies, and smoking cessation. However, for most other strategies, such as increased antenatal attendance, or routine administration of prophylactic micronutrients, the evidence is inconsistent and conflicting. Information on neonatal outcomes apart from PTD (such as serious neonatal morbidity and mortality) was found to be lacking in most studies. It was therefore not possible to establish whether preventing PTD or prolonging gestation would correlate to improved perinatal outcome, and this lessened the potential clinical usefulness of any proposed preventative strategy. No studies were found that evaluated the effectiveness of combining screening-preventative strategies. The review concludes with a suggested an antenatal management plan designed to prevent PTD based on current practice and the evidence presented in this article.

  17. Multilevel joint competing risk models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karunarathna, G. H. S.; Sooriyarachchi, M. R.

    2017-09-01

    Joint modeling approaches are often encountered for different outcomes of competing risk time to event and count in many biomedical and epidemiology studies in the presence of cluster effect. Hospital length of stay (LOS) has been the widely used outcome measure in hospital utilization due to the benchmark measurement for measuring multiple terminations such as discharge, transferred, dead and patients who have not completed the event of interest at the follow up period (censored) during hospitalizations. Competing risk models provide a method of addressing such multiple destinations since classical time to event models yield biased results when there are multiple events. In this study, the concept of joint modeling has been applied to the dengue epidemiology in Sri Lanka, 2006-2008 to assess the relationship between different outcomes of LOS and platelet count of dengue patients with the district cluster effect. Two key approaches have been applied to build up the joint scenario. In the first approach, modeling each competing risk separately using the binary logistic model, treating all other events as censored under the multilevel discrete time to event model, while the platelet counts are assumed to follow a lognormal regression model. The second approach is based on the endogeneity effect in the multilevel competing risks and count model. Model parameters were estimated using maximum likelihood based on the Laplace approximation. Moreover, the study reveals that joint modeling approach yield more precise results compared to fitting two separate univariate models, in terms of AIC (Akaike Information Criterion).

  18. Prostate Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing prostate cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  19. Colorectal Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing colorectal cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  20. Esophageal Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing esophageal cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  1. Bladder Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing bladder cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  2. Lung Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing lung cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  3. Breast Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing breast cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  4. Pancreatic Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing pancreatic cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  5. Ovarian Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing ovarian cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  6. Liver Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing liver cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  7. Testicular Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of testicular cervical cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  8. Cervical Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing cervical cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  9. APPRAISAL OF THE SNAP MODEL FOR PREDICTING NITROGEN MINERALIZATION IN TROPICAL SOILS UNDER EUCALYPTUS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philip James Smethurst

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The Soil Nitrogen Availability Predictor (SNAP model predicts daily and annual rates of net N mineralization (NNM based on daily weather measurements, daily predictions of soil water and soil temperature, and on temperature and moisture modifiers obtained during aerobic incubation (basal rate. The model was based on in situ measurements of NNM in Australian soils under temperate climate. The purpose of this study was to assess this model for use in tropical soils under eucalyptus plantations in São Paulo State, Brazil. Based on field incubations for one month in three, NNM rates were measured at 11 sites (0-20 cm layer for 21 months. The basal rate was determined in in situ incubations during moist and warm periods (January to March. Annual rates of 150-350 kg ha-1 yr-1 NNM predicted by the SNAP model were reasonably accurate (R2 = 0.84. In other periods, at lower moisture and temperature, NNM rates were overestimated. Therefore, if used carefully, the model can provide adequate predictions of annual NNM and may be useful in practical applications. For NNM predictions for shorter periods than a year or under suboptimal incubation conditions, the temperature and moisture modifiers need to be recalibrated for tropical conditions.

  10. Pathophysiological appraisal of a rat model of total hepatic ischemia with an extracorporeal portosystemic shunt.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suzuki, S; Nakamura, S; Sakaguchi, T; Mitsuoka, H; Tsuchiya, Y; Kojima, Y; Konno, H; Baba, S

    1998-11-01

    Animal models of total hepatic ischemia (THI) and reperfusion injury are restricted by concomitant splanchnic congestion. This study was performed to determine the requirement suitable for an extracorporeal portosystemic shunt (PSS) to maintain the intestinal integrity in a rat model of THI. Using a polyethylene tube (0.86 or 1 mm i.d.), PSS was placed between the mesenteric and jugular veins. Comparison was done between THI models with or without PSS and a partial ischemia model with hepatectomy of the nonischemic lobes. Well-tolerated hepatic ischemic period, portal pressure after 10 min of hepatic ischemia, portal endotoxin levels at 1 h after reperfusion, histological features of the small bowel just before reperfusion, and local jejunal and ileal blood hemoglobin oxygen saturation index (ISO2) were compared among the models. Animals without PSS poorly tolerated 30 min of THI. Animals receiving THI with PSS or partial hepatic ischemia tolerated a longer ischemic period (60 min) with a significantly higher small bowel ISO2, lower portal pressure and endotoxin levels (P tube as well as partial hepatic ischemia were significantly lower than those after THI with PSS using a 0.86-mm i.d. tube. THI with PSS using a 1-mm i.d. tube was strikingly similar to partial hepatic ischemia in the pathophysiological profile during hepatic ischemia. PSS with a tube 1 mm or more in inner diameter offers pathophysiological advantages in experiments on THI and reperfusion. Copyright 1998 Academic Press.

  11. Risk modelling in portfolio optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lam, W. H.; Jaaman, Saiful Hafizah Hj.; Isa, Zaidi

    2013-09-01

    Risk management is very important in portfolio optimization. The mean-variance model has been used in portfolio optimization to minimize the investment risk. The objective of the mean-variance model is to minimize the portfolio risk and achieve the target rate of return. Variance is used as risk measure in the mean-variance model. The purpose of this study is to compare the portfolio composition as well as performance between the optimal portfolio of mean-variance model and equally weighted portfolio. Equally weighted portfolio means the proportions that are invested in each asset are equal. The results show that the portfolio composition of the mean-variance optimal portfolio and equally weighted portfolio are different. Besides that, the mean-variance optimal portfolio gives better performance because it gives higher performance ratio than the equally weighted portfolio.

  12. Models for Pesticide Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA considers the toxicity of the pesticide as well as the amount of pesticide to which a person or the environments may be exposed in risk assessment. Scientists use mathematical models to predict pesticide concentrations in exposure assessment.

  13. Method for appraising model validity of randomised controlled trials of homeopathic treatment: multi-rater concordance study

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background A method for assessing the model validity of randomised controlled trials of homeopathy is needed. To date, only conventional standards for assessing intrinsic bias (internal validity) of trials have been invoked, with little recognition of the special characteristics of homeopathy. We aimed to identify relevant judgmental domains to use in assessing the model validity of homeopathic treatment (MVHT). We define MVHT as the extent to which a homeopathic intervention and the main measure of its outcome, as implemented in a randomised controlled trial (RCT), reflect 'state-of-the-art' homeopathic practice. Methods Using an iterative process, an international group of experts developed a set of six judgmental domains, with associated descriptive criteria. The domains address: (I) the rationale for the choice of the particular homeopathic intervention; (II) the homeopathic principles reflected in the intervention; (III) the extent of homeopathic practitioner input; (IV) the nature of the main outcome measure; (V) the capability of the main outcome measure to detect change; (VI) the length of follow-up to the endpoint of the study. Six papers reporting RCTs of homeopathy of varying design were randomly selected from the literature. A standard form was used to record each assessor's independent response per domain, using the optional verdicts 'Yes', 'Unclear', 'No'. Concordance among the eight verdicts per domain, across all six papers, was evaluated using the kappa (κ) statistic. Results The six judgmental domains enabled MVHT to be assessed with 'fair' to 'almost perfect' concordance in each case. For the six RCTs examined, the method allowed MVHT to be classified overall as 'acceptable' in three, 'unclear' in two, and 'inadequate' in one. Conclusion Future systematic reviews of RCTs in homeopathy should adopt the MVHT method as part of a complete appraisal of trial validity. PMID:22510227

  14. An appraisal of convergence failures in the application of logistic regression model in published manuscripts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yusuf, O B; Bamgboye, E A; Afolabi, R F; Shodimu, M A

    2014-09-01

    Logistic regression model is widely used in health research for description and predictive purposes. Unfortunately, most researchers are sometimes not aware that the underlying principles of the techniques have failed when the algorithm for maximum likelihood does not converge. Young researchers particularly postgraduate students may not know why separation problem whether quasi or complete occurs, how to identify it and how to fix it. This study was designed to critically evaluate convergence issues in articles that employed logistic regression analysis published in an African Journal of Medicine and medical sciences between 2004 and 2013. Problems of quasi or complete separation were described and were illustrated with the National Demographic and Health Survey dataset. A critical evaluation of articles that employed logistic regression was conducted. A total of 581 articles was reviewed, of which 40 (6.9%) used binary logistic regression. Twenty-four (60.0%) stated the use of logistic regression model in the methodology while none of the articles assessed model fit. Only 3 (12.5%) properly described the procedures. Of the 40 that used the logistic regression model, the problem of convergence occurred in 6 (15.0%) of the articles. Logistic regression tends to be poorly reported in studies published between 2004 and 2013. Our findings showed that the procedure may not be well understood by researchers since very few described the process in their reports and may be totally unaware of the problem of convergence or how to deal with it.

  15. A simulation model for reliability-based appraisal of an energy policy: The case of Lebanon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamdan, H.A.; Ghajar, R.F.; Chedid, R.B.

    2012-01-01

    The Lebanese Electric Power System (LEPS) has been suffering from technical and financial deficiencies for decades and mirrors the problems encountered in many developing countries suffering from inadequate or no power systems planning resulting in incomplete and ill-operating infrastructure, and suffering from effects of political instability, huge debts, unavailability of financing desired projects and inefficiency in operation. The upgrade and development of the system necessitate the adoption of a comprehensive energy policy that introduces solutions to a diversity of problems addressing the technical, financial, administrative and governance aspects of the system. In this paper, an energy policy for Lebanon is proposed and evaluated based on integration between energy modeling and financial modeling. The paper utilizes the Load Modification Technique (LMT) as a probabilistic tool to assess the impact of policy implementation on energy production, overall cost, technical/commercial losses and reliability. Scenarios reflecting implementation of policy projects are assessed and their impacts are compared with business-as-usual scenarios which assume no new investment is to take place in the sector. Conclusions are drawn on the usefulness of the proposed evaluation methodology and the effectiveness of the adopted energy policy for Lebanon and other developing countries suffering from similar power system problems. - Highlights: ► Evaluation methodology based on a probabilistic simulation tool is proposed. ► A business-as-usual scenario for a given study period of the LEPS was modeled. ► Mitigation scenarios reflecting implementation of the energy policy are modeled. ► Policy simulated and compared with business-as-usual scenarios of the LEPS. ► Results reflect usefulness of proposed methodology and the adopted energy policy.

  16. An Appraisal Model Based on a Synthetic Feature Selection Approach for Students’ Academic Achievement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ching-Hsue Cheng

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Obtaining necessary information (and even extracting hidden messages from existing big data, and then transforming them into knowledge, is an important skill. Data mining technology has received increased attention in various fields in recent years because it can be used to find historical patterns and employ machine learning to aid in decision-making. When we find unexpected rules or patterns from the data, they are likely to be of high value. This paper proposes a synthetic feature selection approach (SFSA, which is combined with a support vector machine (SVM to extract patterns and find the key features that influence students’ academic achievement. For verifying the proposed model, two databases, namely, “Student Profile” and “Tutorship Record”, were collected from an elementary school in Taiwan, and were concatenated into an integrated dataset based on students’ names as a research dataset. The results indicate the following: (1 the accuracy of the proposed feature selection approach is better than that of the Minimum-Redundancy-Maximum-Relevance (mRMR approach; (2 the proposed model is better than the listing methods when the six least influential features have been deleted; and (3 the proposed model can enhance the accuracy and facilitate the interpretation of the pattern from a hybrid-type dataset of students’ academic achievement.

  17. Modeling renewable energy company risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sadorsky, Perry

    2012-01-01

    The renewable energy sector is one of the fastest growing components of the energy industry and along with this increased demand for renewable energy there has been an increase in investing and financing activities. The tradeoff between risk and return in the renewable energy sector is, however, precarious. Renewable energy companies are often among the riskiest types of companies to invest in and for this reason it is necessary to have a good understanding of the risk factors. This paper uses a variable beta model to investigate the determinants of renewable energy company risk. The empirical results show that company sales growth has a negative impact on company risk while oil price increases have a positive impact on company risk. When oil price returns are positive and moderate, increases in sales growth can offset the impact of oil price returns and this leads to lower systematic risk.

  18. Emotional and Utilitarian Appraisals of Moral Dilemmas Are Encoded in Separate Areas and Integrated in Ventromedial Prefrontal Cortex

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montaser-Kouhsari, Leila; Woodward, James; Rangel, Antonio

    2015-01-01

    Moral judgment often requires making difficult tradeoffs (e.g., is it appropriate to torture to save the lives of innocents at risk?). Previous research suggests that both emotional appraisals and more deliberative utilitarian appraisals influence such judgments and that these appraisals often conflict. However, it is unclear how these different types of appraisals are represented in the brain, or how they are integrated into an overall moral judgment. We addressed these questions using an fMRI paradigm in which human subjects provide separate emotional and utilitarian appraisals for different potential actions, and then make difficult moral judgments constructed from combinations of these actions. We found that anterior cingulate, insula, and superior temporal gyrus correlated with emotional appraisals, whereas temporoparietal junction and dorsomedial prefrontal cortex correlated with utilitarian appraisals. Overall moral value judgments were represented in an anterior portion of the ventromedial prefrontal cortex. Critically, the pattern of responses and functional interactions between these three sets of regions are consistent with a model in which emotional and utilitarian appraisals are computed independently and in parallel, and passed to the ventromedial prefrontal cortex where they are integrated into an overall moral value judgment. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Popular accounts of moral judgment often describe it as a battle for control between two systems, one intuitive and emotional, the other rational and utilitarian, engaged in winner-take-all inhibitory competition. Using a novel fMRI paradigm, we identified distinct neural signatures of emotional and utilitarian appraisals and used them to test different models of how they compete for the control of moral behavior. Importantly, we find little support for competitive inhibition accounts. Instead, moral judgments resembled the architecture of simple economic choices: distinct regions represented emotional

  19. Emotional and Utilitarian Appraisals of Moral Dilemmas Are Encoded in Separate Areas and Integrated in Ventromedial Prefrontal Cortex.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hutcherson, Cendri A; Montaser-Kouhsari, Leila; Woodward, James; Rangel, Antonio

    2015-09-09

    Moral judgment often requires making difficult tradeoffs (e.g., is it appropriate to torture to save the lives of innocents at risk?). Previous research suggests that both emotional appraisals and more deliberative utilitarian appraisals influence such judgments and that these appraisals often conflict. However, it is unclear how these different types of appraisals are represented in the brain, or how they are integrated into an overall moral judgment. We addressed these questions using an fMRI paradigm in which human subjects provide separate emotional and utilitarian appraisals for different potential actions, and then make difficult moral judgments constructed from combinations of these actions. We found that anterior cingulate, insula, and superior temporal gyrus correlated with emotional appraisals, whereas temporoparietal junction and dorsomedial prefrontal cortex correlated with utilitarian appraisals. Overall moral value judgments were represented in an anterior portion of the ventromedial prefrontal cortex. Critically, the pattern of responses and functional interactions between these three sets of regions are consistent with a model in which emotional and utilitarian appraisals are computed independently and in parallel, and passed to the ventromedial prefrontal cortex where they are integrated into an overall moral value judgment. Significance statement: Popular accounts of moral judgment often describe it as a battle for control between two systems, one intuitive and emotional, the other rational and utilitarian, engaged in winner-take-all inhibitory competition. Using a novel fMRI paradigm, we identified distinct neural signatures of emotional and utilitarian appraisals and used them to test different models of how they compete for the control of moral behavior. Importantly, we find little support for competitive inhibition accounts. Instead, moral judgments resembled the architecture of simple economic choices: distinct regions represented emotional

  20. F167. ACCESS, UNDERSTAND, APPRAISE AND APPLY TO / OF HEALTH INFORMATION AND HEALTH LITERACY IN INDIVIDUALS AT-RISK FOR PSYCHOSIS: A SYSTEMATIC REVIEW

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seves, Mauro; Haidl, Theresa; Eggers, Susanne; Rostamzadeh, Ayda; Genske, Anna; Jünger, Saskia; Woopen, Christiane; Jessen, Frank; Ruhrmann, Stephan

    2018-01-01

    Abstract Background Numerous studies suggest that health literacy (HL) plays a crucial role in maintaining and improving individual health. Furthermore, empirical findings highlight the relation between levels of a person’s HL and clinical outcomes. So far, there are no reviews, which investigate HL in individuals at-risk for psychosis. The aim of the current review is to assess how individuals at risk of developing a first episode of psychosis gain access to, understand, evaluate and apply risk-related health information. Methods A mixed-methods approach was used to analyze and synthesize a variety of study types including qualitative and quantitative studies. Search strategy, screening and data selection have been carried out according to the PRISMA criteria. The systematic search was applied on peer-reviewed literature in PUBMED, Cochrane Library, PsycINFO and Web of Science. Studies were included if participants met clinical high risk criteria (CHR), including the basic symptom criterion (BS) and the ultra-high risk (UHR) criteria. The UHR criteria comprise the attenuated psychotic symptom criterion (APS), the brief limited psychotic symptom criterion (BLIPS) and the genetic risk and functional decline criterion (GRDP) Furthermore, studies must have used validated HL measures or any operationalization of the HL’s subdimensions (access, understanding, appraisal, decision-making or action) as a primary outcome. A third inclusion criterion comprised that the concept of HL or one of the four dimensions was mentioned in title or abstract. Data extraction and synthesis was implemented according to existing recommendations for appraising evidence from different study types. The quality of the included studies was evaluated and related to the study results. Results The search string returned 10587 papers. After data extraction 15 quantitative as well as 4 qualitative studies and 3 reviews were included. The Quality assessment evaluated 12 publications as

  1. [HPV vaccine implementation in Chile: an appraisal from the social determinants of health model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández González, Loreto

    2017-12-01

    Cervical cancer is the fourth most common neoplasm in women worldwide and its incidence is associated with profound social inequities. In Chile, it is the second cause of death in women of reproductive age. The Chilean clinical guideline identifies the vaccine against Human Papillomavirus (HPV) as the main preventive measure. Since 2014, the Ministry of Health has implemented free immunization against HPV for girls and female adolescents. This article critically analyzes this public policy from the viewpoint of health equity, using as framework the Social Determinants of Health Model. Specifically, we address the structural determinants of income and gender, which act as material and social barriers for achieving immunization, affecting protection against cervical cancer. These barriers correspond to the high cost of the vaccine, and social attitudes/cultural beliefs towards sexual behavior in Latin America and Chile that affect the acceptability of vaccination. The Social Determinants of Health Model constitutes a useful tool for identifying health inequities and understanding public policy from an equity viewpoint that complements the biomedical and epidemiological understanding of disease. In this topic, the initiative aims to strengthen the idea of health as a human right and health promotion as an essential function of public health policy.

  2. Appraising the Cost Efficiency of Higher Technological and Vocational Education Institutions in Taiwan Using the Metafrontier Cost-Function Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Yung-Hsiang; Chen, Ku-Hsieh

    2013-01-01

    This paper aims at appraising the cost efficiency and technology of institutions of higher technological and vocational education. Differing from conventional literature, it considers the potential influence of inherent discrepancies in output quality and characteristics of school systems for institutes of technology (ITs) and universities of…

  3. Penentuan Sistem Kompensasi Berdasarkan Risk Assessment dan Performance Appraisal Karyawan (Studi Kasus: Petugas Operasional Pemadam Kebakaran Kota Padang

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Difana Meilani

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Risk is a possibility of the occurrence that may affect the achievement of objectives. Risk can give positive or negative effect. One of the jobs that have a high risk is firefighter job. Furthermore, a firefighter who are disciplined, responsible, and good in team work, they must be given a reward for their motivation. Therefore, the compensation that they get is equal with the potential risk and working achievement. The compensation of the risk and achievement is included in the extra payment of dangerous work (hazard pay and bonus based on working achievement of an employee (merit pay. Comparing to the old system, the compensation system will increase the firefighters' income from Rp 900.000 to Rp 1.297.280 every month. The addition will also increase the budget of Damkar from Rp 550.800.000 to Rp 793.935.156 every year.

  4. Plasma iron levels appraised 15 days after spinal cord injury in a limb movement animal model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reis, F M; Esteves, A M; Tufik, S; de Mello, M T

    2011-03-01

    Experimental, controlled trial. The purpose of this study was to evaluate plasma iron and transferrin levels in a limb movement animal model with spinal cord injury (SCI). Universidade Federal de São Paulo, Departamento de Psicobiologia. In all, 72 male Wistar rats aged 90 days were divided into four groups: (1) acute SCI (1 day, SCI1), (2) 3 days post-SCI (SCI3), (3) 7 days post-SCI (SCI7) and (4) 15 days post-SCI (SCI15). Each of these groups had corresponding control (CTRL) and SHAM groups. Plasma iron and transferrin levels of the different groups were analyzed using a one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) followed by Tukey's test. We found a significant reduction in iron plasma levels after SCI compared with the CTRL group: SCI1 (CTRL: 175±10.58 μg dl(-1); SCI: 108.28±11.7 μg dl(-1)), SCI3 (CTRL: 195.5±11.00 μg dl(-1); SCI: 127.88±12.63 μg dl(-1)), SCI7 (CTRL: 186±2.97 μg dl(-1); SCI: 89.2±15.39 μg dl(-1)) and SCI15 (CTRL: 163±5.48 μg dl(-1); SCI: 124.44±10.30 μg dl(-1)) (P<0.05; ANOVA). The SHAM1 group demonstrated a reduction in iron plasma after acute SCI (CTRL: 175±10.58 μg dl(-1); SHAM: 114.60±7.81 μg dl(-1)) (P<0.05; ANOVA). Reduced iron metabolism after SCI may be one of the mechanisms involved in the pathogenesis of sleep-related movement disorders.

  5. Information risk and security modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zivic, Predrag

    2005-03-01

    This research paper presentation will feature current frameworks to addressing risk and security modeling and metrics. The paper will analyze technical level risk and security metrics of Common Criteria/ISO15408, Centre for Internet Security guidelines, NSA configuration guidelines and metrics used at this level. Information IT operational standards view on security metrics such as GMITS/ISO13335, ITIL/ITMS and architectural guidelines such as ISO7498-2 will be explained. Business process level standards such as ISO17799, COSO and CobiT will be presented with their control approach to security metrics. Top level, the maturity standards such as SSE-CMM/ISO21827, NSA Infosec Assessment and CobiT will be explored and reviewed. For each defined level of security metrics the research presentation will explore the appropriate usage of these standards. The paper will discuss standards approaches to conducting the risk and security metrics. The research findings will demonstrate the need for common baseline for both risk and security metrics. This paper will show the relation between the attribute based common baseline and corporate assets and controls for risk and security metrics. IT will be shown that such approach spans over all mentioned standards. The proposed approach 3D visual presentation and development of the Information Security Model will be analyzed and postulated. Presentation will clearly demonstrate the benefits of proposed attributes based approach and defined risk and security space for modeling and measuring.

  6. Cabin Environment Physics Risk Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mattenberger, Christopher J.; Mathias, Donovan Leigh

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a Cabin Environment Physics Risk (CEPR) model that predicts the time for an initial failure of Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) functionality to propagate into a hazardous environment and trigger a loss-of-crew (LOC) event. This physics-of failure model allows a probabilistic risk assessment of a crewed spacecraft to account for the cabin environment, which can serve as a buffer to protect the crew during an abort from orbit and ultimately enable a safe return. The results of the CEPR model replace the assumption that failure of the crew critical ECLSS functionality causes LOC instantly, and provide a more accurate representation of the spacecraft's risk posture. The instant-LOC assumption is shown to be excessively conservative and, moreover, can impact the relative risk drivers identified for the spacecraft. This, in turn, could lead the design team to allocate mass for equipment to reduce overly conservative risk estimates in a suboptimal configuration, which inherently increases the overall risk to the crew. For example, available mass could be poorly used to add redundant ECLSS components that have a negligible benefit but appear to make the vehicle safer due to poor assumptions about the propagation time of ECLSS failures.

  7. A systematic review and appraisal of methods of developing and validating lifestyle cardiovascular disease risk factors questionnaires.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nse, Odunaiya; Quinette, Louw; Okechukwu, Ogah

    2015-09-01

    Well developed and validated lifestyle cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors questionnaires is the key to obtaining accurate information to enable planning of CVD prevention program which is a necessity in developing countries. We conducted this review to assess methods and processes used for development and content validation of lifestyle CVD risk factors questionnaires and possibly develop an evidence based guideline for development and content validation of lifestyle CVD risk factors questionnaires. Relevant databases at the Stellenbosch University library were searched for studies conducted between 2008 and 2012, in English language and among humans. Using the following databases; pubmed, cinahl, psyc info and proquest. Search terms used were CVD risk factors, questionnaires, smoking, alcohol, physical activity and diet. Methods identified for development of lifestyle CVD risk factors were; review of literature either systematic or traditional, involvement of expert and /or target population using focus group discussion/interview, clinical experience of authors and deductive reasoning of authors. For validation, methods used were; the involvement of expert panel, the use of target population and factor analysis. Combination of methods produces questionnaires with good content validity and other psychometric properties which we consider good.

  8. Fuzzy audit risk modeling algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zohreh Hajihaa

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Fuzzy logic has created suitable mathematics for making decisions in uncertain environments including professional judgments. One of the situations is to assess auditee risks. During recent years, risk based audit (RBA has been regarded as one of the main tools to fight against fraud. The main issue in RBA is to determine the overall audit risk an auditor accepts, which impact the efficiency of an audit. The primary objective of this research is to redesign the audit risk model (ARM proposed by auditing standards. The proposed model of this paper uses fuzzy inference systems (FIS based on the judgments of audit experts. The implementation of proposed fuzzy technique uses triangular fuzzy numbers to express the inputs and Mamdani method along with center of gravity are incorporated for defuzzification. The proposed model uses three FISs for audit, inherent and control risks, and there are five levels of linguistic variables for outputs. FISs include 25, 25 and 81 rules of if-then respectively and officials of Iranian audit experts confirm all the rules.

  9. Applying the welfare model to at-own-risk discharges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishna, Lalit Kumar Radha; Menon, Sumytra; Kanesvaran, Ravindran

    2017-08-01

    "At-own-risk discharges" or "self-discharges" evidences an irretrievable breakdown in the patient-clinician relationship when patients leave care facilities before completion of medical treatment and against medical advice. Dissolution of the therapeutic relationship terminates the physician's duty of care and professional liability with respect to care of the patient. Acquiescence of an at-own-risk discharge by the clinician is seen as respecting patient autonomy. The validity of such requests pivot on the assumptions that the patient is fully informed and competent to invoke an at-own-risk discharge and that care up to the point of the at-own-risk discharge meets prevailing clinical standards. Palliative care's use of a multidisciplinary team approach challenges both these assumptions. First by establishing multiple independent therapeutic relations between professionals in the multidisciplinary team and the patient who persists despite an at-own-risk discharge. These enduring therapeutic relationships negate the suggestion that no duty of care is owed the patient. Second, the continued employ of collusion, familial determinations, and the circumnavigation of direct patient involvement in family-centric societies compromises the patient's decision-making capacity and raises questions as to the patient's decision-making capacity and their ability to assume responsibility for the repercussions of invoking an at-own-risk discharge. With the validity of at-own-risk discharge request in question and the welfare and patient interest at stake, an alternative approach to assessing at-own-risk discharge requests are called for. The welfare model circumnavigates these concerns and preserves the patient's welfare through the employ of a multidisciplinary team guided holistic appraisal of the patient's specific situation that is informed by clinical and institutional standards and evidenced-based practice. The welfare model provides a robust decision-making framework for

  10. Identifying at-risk states beyond positive symptoms: a brief task assessing how neurocognitive impairments impact on misrepresentation of the social world through blunted emotional appraisal

    OpenAIRE

    Galdos,Mariana; Simons,Claudia J.P.; Wichers,Marieke; Fernandez-Rivas,Aranzazu; Martinez-Azumendi,Oscar; Lataster,Tineke; Amer,Guillermo; Myin-Germeys,Inez; Gonzalez-Torres,Miguel Angel; Os,Jim van

    2011-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Neurocognitive impairments observed in psychotic disorder may impact on emotion recognition and theory of mind, resulting in altered understanding of the social world. Early intervention efforts would be served by further elucidation of this mechanism. METHOD: Patients with a psychotic disorder (n=30) and a reference control group (n=310) were asked to offer emotional appraisals of images of social situations (EASS task). The degree to which case-control differences in appraisals w...

  11. Family Typology and Appraisal of Preschoolers' Behavior by Female Caregivers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coke, Sallie P; Moore, Leslie C

    2015-01-01

    Children with vulnerable caregivers may be at risk for being labeled as having behavior problems when typical behaviors are viewed by their caregivers as problematic, and therefore, research examining the accuracy of the caregivers' perceptions of children's behaviors is needed. The purpose of this study was to use the resiliency model of family stress, adjustment, and adaptation as the theoretical foundation to explore family factors associated with the primary female caregiver's appraisal of her child's behavior, the extent to which the primary female caregiver's appraisal of her child's behavior may be distorted, and the child's level of risk of having a behavioral problem. A cross-sectional, correlational design was used. Data were collected from female caregivers of preschoolers (N = 117). Family factors, demographic characteristics, comfort in parenting, appraisal of behaviors, daily stress, parenting stress, depressive symptoms, social support, ratings of children's behaviors, and distortion in the ratings were measured. Associations were studied using ANOVA, ANCOVA, and chi-squared tests. Family typology was not associated with the female caregiver's appraisals of her child's behavior (p = .31). Distortion of the caregiver's rating of her child's behavior was not associated with family hardiness (high or low; p = .20.) but was associated with having a child with an elevated risk for behavioral problems (p < .01). Families classified as vulnerable were significantly more likely to have a child with elevated risks of having behavioral problems than families classified as secure or regenerative. Findings emphasized the association between family factors (hardiness and coherence) and young children's behaviors. Additional research is needed into how these factors affect the young child's behavior and what causes a caregiver to have a distorted view of her child's behavior.

  12. Model of MSD Risk Assessment at Workplace

    OpenAIRE

    K. Sekulová; M. Šimon

    2015-01-01

    This article focuses on upper-extremity musculoskeletal disorders risk assessment model at workplace. In this model are used risk factors that are responsible for musculoskeletal system damage. Based on statistic calculations the model is able to define what risk of MSD threatens workers who are under risk factors. The model is also able to say how MSD risk would decrease if these risk factors are eliminated.

  13. The appraisal rationalisation of real estate expertise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marina Ciuna

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The Italian appraisal practice is characterized by valuations developed in subjective opinions formulated by the valuers, according to the experience and the competence rather than on the survey of the market data of comparable properties. This practice makes up for the lack of information on the real estate market and to the consequent absence of systematic collections of market data. This tradition is in the cadastral appraisal for the rural (1886 and urban properties (1939. The assessed income is appraised for a representative property and wide to all the other properties with arbitrary scores (pure number. The assessed value is derived from the income with fixed multipliers. The reform of the cadastral appraisals (2013 provides the employment of predetermined statistic functions rather than the automated valuation models applied in the mass appraisal. There are therefore ample spaces to rationalize the Italian valuations. For the market appraisal the process of rationalization is based on the comparison between the expertise and the market comparison approach. For the cadastral appraisal the process of rationalization is based on the statistic application to the fixed functions with the survey of a sample of market prices and the ratios study according to the valuation standards.

  14. A Qualitative Study to Appraise Patients and Family Members Perceptions, Knowledge, and Attitudes towards Venous Thromboembolism Risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudie Haxaire

    Full Text Available This study aimed to examine perception, knowledge and concerns developed by patients and their family as regards venous thromboembolism (VTE risk.We conducted a qualitative study. Participants were: (1 patients with unprovoked VTE with either factor V Leiden mutation or G20210A prothrombin gene mutation or not; and (2 their first-degree relatives. Interviews took place mostly at Brest University Hospital. Participants produced narratives of the patient's illness, stressing their perception of the disorder, its mechanisms, etiology, circumstances and risk factors. Interviews were audiotaped and transcribed verbatim. On an ongoing basis, central themes were identified and data from narratives were categorized by these themes.A total of ten patients and 25 first-degree relatives were interviewed. Analyses of patient's narratives suggested 4 main themes: (1 concerns about initial symptoms and suspicion of VTE. The longer the duration of the initial phase, the more likely anxiety took place and persisted after diagnosis; (2 underestimation of potential life-threatening episode once being managed in emergency; (3 possible biographical disruption with inability to cope with the event; and (4 secondary prevention attitudes motivated by remains of the episode and favoring general prevention attitudes. Analyses of the first-degree relatives narratives suggested 3 main themes: (1 common interpretation of the VTE episode shared within the family; (2 diverse and sometimes confusing interpretation of the genetic status; and, (3 interpretation of clinical signs linked to VTE transmission within the family.Construction of the risk of VTE is based on patient's initial experience and shared within the family. Collection of narratives illustrates the gap between these perceptions and current medical knowledge. These results support the need to collect the perceptions of the VTE episode and its consequences, as a prerequisite to any health education process.

  15. Perceptions of Coach-Athlete Relationship Are More Important to Coaches than Athletes in Predicting Dyadic Coping and Stress Appraisals: An Actor-Partner Independence Mediation Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholls, Adam R; Perry, John L

    2016-01-01

    Most attempts to manage stress involve at least one other person, yet coping studies in sport tend to report an athlete's individual coping strategies. There is a limited understanding of coping involving other people, particularly within sport, despite athletes potentially spending a lot of time with other people, such as their coach. Guided by the systemic-transactional model of stress and coping among couples (Bodenmann, 1995), from relationship psychology, we assessed dyadic coping, perceptions of relationship quality, and primary stress appraisals of challenge and threat among 158 coach-athlete dyads (n = 277 participants). The athletes competed at amateur (n = 123), semi-professional (n = 31), or professional levels (n = 4). Coaches and athletes from the same dyad completed a measure of dyadic coping, coach-athlete relationship, and stress appraisals. We tested an Actor-Partner Interdependence Mediation Model to account for the non-independence of dyadic data. These actor-partner analyses revealed differences between athletes and coaches. Although the actor effects were relatively large compared to partner effects, perceptions of relationship quality demonstrated little impact on athletes. The mediating role of relationship quality was broadly as important as dyadic coping for coaches. These findings provide an insight in to how coach-athlete dyads interact to manage stress and indicate that relationship quality is of particular importance for coaches, but less important for athletes. In order to improve perceptions of relationship quality among coaches and athletes, interventions could be developed to foster positive dyadic coping among both coaches and athletes, which may also impact upon stress appraisals of challenge and threat.

  16. Perceptions of Coach-Athlete Relationship are more Important to Coaches than Athletes in Predicting Dyadic Coping and Stress Appraisals: An Actor-Partner Independence Mediation Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam Robert Nicholls

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Most attempts to manage stress involve at least one other person, yet coping studies in sport tend to report an athlete’s individual coping strategies. There is a limited understanding of coping involving other people, particularly within sport, despite athletes potentially spending a lot of time with other people, such as their coach. Guided by the systemic-transactional model of stress and coping among couples (Bodenmann, 1995, from relationship psychology, we assessed dyadic coping, perceptions of relationship quality, and primary stress appraisals of challenge and threat among 158 coach-athlete dyads (n = 277 participants. The athletes competed at amateur (n = 123, semi-professional (n = 31, or professional levels (n = 4. Coaches and athletes from the same dyad completed a measure of dyadic coping, coach-athlete relationship, and stress appraisals. We tested an Actor-Partner Interdependence Mediation Model to account for the nonindependence of dyadic data. These actor-partner analyses revealed differences between athletes and coaches. Although the actor effects were relatively large compared to partner effects, perceptions of relationship quality demonstrated little impact on athletes. The mediating role of relationship quality was broadly as important as dyadic coping for coaches. These findings provide an insight in to how coach-athlete dyads interact to manage stress and indicate that relationship quality is of particular importance for coaches, but less important for athletes. In order to improve perceptions of relationship quality among coaches and athletes, interventions could be developed to foster positive dyadic coping among both coaches and athletes, which may also impact upon stress appraisals of challenge and threat.

  17. The Psychology of Ongoing Threat: Relative Risk Appraisal, the September 11 Attacks, and Terrorism-Related Fears

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, Randall D.; Bryant, Richard A.; Amsel, Lawrence; Suh, Eun Jung; Cook, Joan M.; Neria, Yuval

    2007-01-01

    There are now replicated findings that posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms related to the September 11, 2001, attacks occurred in large numbers of persons who did not fit the traditional definition of exposure to a traumatic event. These data are not explained by traditional epidemiologic "bull's eye" disaster models, which assume the…

  18. Quantile uncertainty and value-at-risk model risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, Carol; Sarabia, José María

    2012-08-01

    This article develops a methodology for quantifying model risk in quantile risk estimates. The application of quantile estimates to risk assessment has become common practice in many disciplines, including hydrology, climate change, statistical process control, insurance and actuarial science, and the uncertainty surrounding these estimates has long been recognized. Our work is particularly important in finance, where quantile estimates (called Value-at-Risk) have been the cornerstone of banking risk management since the mid 1980s. A recent amendment to the Basel II Accord recommends additional market risk capital to cover all sources of "model risk" in the estimation of these quantiles. We provide a novel and elegant framework whereby quantile estimates are adjusted for model risk, relative to a benchmark which represents the state of knowledge of the authority that is responsible for model risk. A simulation experiment in which the degree of model risk is controlled illustrates how to quantify Value-at-Risk model risk and compute the required regulatory capital add-on for banks. An empirical example based on real data shows how the methodology can be put into practice, using only two time series (daily Value-at-Risk and daily profit and loss) from a large bank. We conclude with a discussion of potential applications to nonfinancial risks. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  19. The importance of coping, threat appraisal, and beliefs in understanding and responding to fear of victimization: applications to a male prisoner sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ireland, Jane L

    2011-08-01

    The current study explores conceptualizations of victimization by men, focusing on threat appraisal, coping appraisal, and beliefs, and seeking to apply protection motivation theory, the applied fear response model, and social cognition. Five hundred and sixty-six male prisoners, comprising adults and adolescents, completed a measure of victimization and perpetration (DIPC-SCALED) and of fear, appraisal, and beliefs (TAB). It was predicted that increased threat appraisal and ineffective coping appraisal would predict increased fear of victimization, particularly among the mutual perpetrator/victim group. This group was expected to select strategies for managing the threat of victimization, which carried more risk to them (e.g., such as an aggressive reaction) and to present with beliefs supporting the use of aggression as a response to victimization. Fear of victimization was predicted by threat and coping appraisal although the deficit for victims appeared in coping appraisal only. Mutual perpetrator/victims presented with a specific difficulty in appraising their ability to cope with threat. Differences in beliefs supporting an aggressive response to threat were also noted across perpetrator and/or victimization groups. The article concludes by outlining the implications for theory and clinical practice.

  20. Re-appraisal and extension of the Gratton-Vargas two-dimensional analytical snowplow model of plasma focus evolution in the context of contemporary research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Auluck, S. K. H.

    2013-01-01

    Recent resurgence of interest in applications of dense plasma focus and doubts about the conventional view of dense plasma focus as a purely irrotational compressive flow have re-opened questions concerning device optimization. In this context, this paper re-appraises and extends the analytical snowplow model of plasma focus sheath evolution developed by F. Gratton and J. M. Vargas [Energy Storage, Compression and Switching, edited by V. Nardi, H. Sahlin, and W. H. Bostick (Plenum, New York, 1983), Vol. 2, p. 353)] and shows its relevance to contemporary research. The Gratton-Vargas (GV) model enables construction of a special orthogonal coordinate system in which the plasma flow problem can be simplified and a model of sheath structure can be formulated. The Lawrenceville Plasma Physics (LPP) plasma focus facility, which reports neutron yield better than global scaling law, is shown to be operating closer to an optimum operating point of the GV model as compared with PF-1000

  1. Emotional consciousness: a neural model of how cognitive appraisal and somatic perception interact to produce qualitative experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thagard, Paul; Aubie, Brandon

    2008-09-01

    This paper proposes a theory of how conscious emotional experience is produced by the brain as the result of many interacting brain areas coordinated in working memory. These brain areas integrate perceptions of bodily states of an organism with cognitive appraisals of its current situation. Emotions are neural processes that represent the overall cognitive and somatic state of the organism. Conscious experience arises when neural representations achieve high activation as part of working memory. This theory explains numerous phenomena concerning emotional consciousness, including differentiation, integration, intensity, valence, and change.

  2. Spatiotemporal Modeling of Community Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-03-01

    Ertugay, and Sebnem Duzgun, “Exploratory and Inferential Methods for Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Residential Fire Clustering in Urban Areas,” Fire ...response in communities.”26 In “Exploratory and Inferential Methods for Spatio-temporal Analysis of Residential Fire Clustering in Urban Areas,” Ceyhan...of fire resources spread across the community. Spatiotemporal modeling shows that actualized risk is dynamic and relatively patterned. Though

  3. Long-term risks of metal contaminants in drinking water: a critical appraisal of guideline values for arsenic and vanadium

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riccardo Crebelli

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Metal contaminants in drinking water represent a relevant health issue in several areas of the world. In Italy, because of the geological features of the territory, high arsenic and vanadium are frequently reported in ground waters in concentrations above current guideline values. The implications for public health of the presence of contaminants above their legal limit are directly related to the biological basis of the guideline value. In the case of arsenic there are still major uncertainties in the mechanism of carcinogenesis which prevent a precise evaluation of long-term risks. Thus, the guideline value endorsed in the European Community (10 µg/L has to be considered as a pragmatic tool rather than a quality objective, bearing in mind that "every effort should be made to keep concentrations as low as reasonably possible" (WHO, 2011. A reverse situation holds for vanadium, for which a strict national limit (50 µg/L was previously proposed in consideration of data gaps, and for which new evidence indicated a less stringent health-based limit.

  4. Heavy metals bioconcentration from soil to vegetables and appraisal of health risk in Koka and Wonji farms, Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eliku, Temesgen; Leta, Seyoum

    2017-04-01

    Heavy metal accumulation in agricultural crops has grown a major concern globally as a result of a significant health impact on human. The quantification of heavy metals (Cd, Pb, Cr, Zn, Cu, and Ni) in the soil and vegetables at two sites (Koka and Wonji Gefersa) was done using flame atomic absorption spectrophotometer. The mean concentrations of heavy metals in vegetable fields' soil samples obtained from Koka were higher for Pb, Cr, Zn, Cu, and Ni. The overall results of soil samples ranged 0.52-0.93, 13.6-27.3, 10.0-21.8, 44.4-88.5, 11.9-30.3, and 14.7-34.5 mg kg -1 for Cd, Pb, Cr, Zn, Cu, and Ni, respectively. The concentrations of heavy metals were maximum for Cd (0.41 ± 0.03 mg kg -1 ), Pb (0.54 ± 0.11 mg kg -1 ), Zn (14.4 ± 0.72 mg kg -1 ), Cu (2.84 ± 0.27 mg kg -1 ), and Ni (1.09 ± 0.11 mg kg -1 ) in Cabbage and for Cr (2.63 ± 0.11 mg kg -1 ) in green pepper. The result indicated that Cd has high transfer factor value and Pb was the lowest. The transfer pattern for heavy metals in different vegetables showed a trend in the order: Cd > Zn > Cu > Cr > Ni > Pb. Among different vegetables, cabbage showed the highest value of metal pollution index and bean had the lowest value. Hazard index of all the vegetables was less than unity; thus, the consumption of these vegetables is unlikely to pose health risks to the target population.

  5. Analysis of uncertainty in modeling perceived risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Melnyk, R.; Sandquist, G.M.

    2005-01-01

    Expanding on a mathematical model developed for quantifying and assessing perceived risks, the distribution functions, variances, and uncertainties associated with estimating the model parameters are quantified. The analytical model permits the identification and assignment of any number of quantifiable risk perception factors that can be incorporated within standard risk methodology. Those risk perception factors associated with major technical issues are modeled using lognormal probability density functions to span the potentially large uncertainty variations associated with these risk perceptions. The model quantifies the logic of public risk perception and provides an effective means for measuring and responding to perceived risks. (authors)

  6. Identifying at-risk states beyond positive symptoms: a brief task assessing how neurocognitive impairments impact on misrepresentation of the social world through blunted emotional appraisal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galdos, Mariana; Simons, Claudia J P; Wichers, Marieke; Fernandez-Rivas, Aranzazu; Martinez-Azumendi, Oscar; Lataster, Tineke; Amer, Guillermo; Myin-Germeys, Inez; Gonzalez-Torres, Miguel Angel; van Os, Jim

    2011-10-01

    Neurocognitive impairments observed in psychotic disorder may impact on emotion recognition and theory of mind, resulting in altered understanding of the social world. Early intervention efforts would be served by further elucidation of this mechanism. Patients with a psychotic disorder (n=30) and a reference control group (n=310) were asked to offer emotional appraisals of images of social situations (EASS task). The degree to which case-control differences in appraisals were mediated by neurocognitive alterations was analyzed. The EASS task displayed convergent and discriminant validity. Compared to controls, patients displayed blunted emotional appraisal of social situations (B=0.52, 95% CI: 0.30, 0.74, Ppsychotic disorder may underlie misrepresentation of the social world, mediated by altered emotion recognition. A task assessing the social impact of cognitive alterations in clinical practice may be useful in detecting key alterations very early in the course of psychotic illness.

  7. Model risk analysis for risk management and option pricing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kerkhof, F.L.J.

    2003-01-01

    Due to the growing complexity of products in financial markets, market participants rely more and more on quantitative models for trading and risk management decisions. This introduces a fairly new type of risk, namely, model risk. In the first part of this thesis we investigate the quantitative

  8. Physician Appraisals: Key Challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Klich Jacek

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of the article is to identify key criteria being used for physician appraisals and to find how communication skills of physicians are valued in those appraisals. ScienceDirect and EBSCOhost databases were used for this search. The results show that a physician appraisal is underestimated both theoretically and empirically. The particular gap exists with respect to the communication skills of physicians, which are rarely present in medical training syllabi and physician assessments. The article contributes to the theoretical discourse on physician appraisals and points out at the inconsistency between the high status of physicians as a key hospital resource on the one hand and, on the other hand, at inadequate and poorly researched assessment of their performance with a special emphasis on communication skills. The article may inspire health managers to develop and implement up-to-date assessment forms for physicians and good managerial practices in this respect in hospitals and other health care units.

  9. Clustering of risk factors for non-communicable disease and healthcare expenditure in employees with private health insurance presenting for health risk appraisal: a cross-sectional study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolbe-Alexander, Tracy L; Conradie, Jaco; Lambert, Estelle V

    2013-12-21

    The global increase in the prevalence of NCD's is accompanied by an increase in risk factors for these diseases such as insufficient physical activity and poor nutritional habits. The main aims of this research study were to determine the extent to which insufficient physical activity (PA) clustered with other risk factors for non-communicable disease (NCD) in employed persons undergoing health risk assessment, and whether these risk factors were associated with higher healthcare costs. Employees from 68 companies voluntarily participated in worksite wellness days, that included an assessment of self-reported health behaviors and clinical measures, such as: blood pressure (BP), Body Mass Index (BMI), as well as total cholesterol concentrations from capillary blood samples. A risk-related age, 'Vitality Risk Age' was calculated for each participant using an algorithm that incorporated multiplicative pooled relative risks for all cause mortality associated with smoking, PA, fruit and vegetable intake, BMI, BP and cholesterol concentration. Healthcare cost data were obtained for employees (n = 2 789). Participants were 36±10 years old and the most prevalent risk factors were insufficient PA (67%) and BMI ≥ 25 (62%). Employees who were insufficiently active also had a greater number of other NCD risk factors, compared to those meeting PA recommendations (chi2 = 43.55; p employees meeting PA guidelines had significantly fewer visits to their family doctor (GP) (2.5 versus 3.11; p Physical inactivity was associated with clustering of risk factors for NCD in SA employees. Employees with lower BMI, better self-reported health status and readiness to change were more likely to meet the PA guidelines. These employees might therefore benefit from physical activity intervention programs that could result in improved risk profile and reduced healthcare expenditure.

  10. 12 CFR 564.5 - Appraiser independence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 5 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Appraiser independence. 564.5 Section 564.5 Banks and Banking OFFICE OF THRIFT SUPERVISION, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY APPRAISALS § 564.5 Appraiser independence. (a) Staff appraisers. If an appraisal is prepared by a staff appraiser, that appraiser must be...

  11. Appraisal of Meconium at Delivery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paes, Bosco A.; Thompson, Penelope

    1992-01-01

    A critical appraisal of the scientific literature on managing mesconium in labor identified 15 studies which were used to evaluate intervention strategies. Only four were randomized trials: two on the use of amnioinfusion in labor, one on the technique of bulb versus DeLee catheter suction of the newborn, and one on the need for endotracheal intubation and suction in meconium-stained neonates. Current practice is dictated by the most favorable tradeoff between benefit and risk because of limited scientific evidence. PMID:21221284

  12. A new composite decision support framework for strategic and sustainable transport appraisals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barfod, Michael Bruhn; Salling, Kim Bang

    2015-01-01

    . The proposed framework is based on the use of cost-benefit analysis featuring feasibility risk assessment in combination with multi-criteria decision analysis and is supported by the concept of decision conferencing. The framework is applied for a transport related case study dealing with the complex decision....... The outcome of the case study demonstrates the decision making framework as a valuable decision support system (DSS), and it is concluded that appraisals of transport projects can be effectively supported by the use of the DSS. Finally, perspectives of the future modelling work are given.......This paper concerns the development of a new decision support framework for the appraisal of transport infrastructure projects. In such appraisals there will often be a need for including both conventional transport impacts as well as criteria of a more strategic and/or sustainable character...

  13. Credit Risk Evaluation : Modeling - Analysis - Management

    OpenAIRE

    Wehrspohn, Uwe

    2002-01-01

    An analysis and further development of the building blocks of modern credit risk management: -Definitions of default -Estimation of default probabilities -Exposures -Recovery Rates -Pricing -Concepts of portfolio dependence -Time horizons for risk calculations -Quantification of portfolio risk -Estimation of risk measures -Portfolio analysis and portfolio improvement -Evaluation and comparison of credit risk models -Analytic portfolio loss distributions The thesis contributes to the evaluatio...

  14. SCAMPI Lead Appraiser (Service Mark) Body of Knowledge (SLA BOK)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-10-01

    University. 34 | CMU/SEI-2007-TR-019 CC 3 Project Planning and Management Moeller, Robert R. COSO Enterprise Risk Management : Understanding the...appraisal participants) to specific amounts of time when the sponsor agrees to having the appraisal. CMP 3.1.2 Employing risk management techniques...contingency and management reserves appropriately • Ensuring the risk management strategy accounts for the OU’s process improvement history • Assessing

  15. Environmental modeling and health risk analysis (ACTS/RISK)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Aral, M. M

    2010-01-01

    ... presents a review of the topics of exposure and health risk analysis. The Analytical Contaminant Transport Analysis System (ACTS) and Health RISK Analysis (RISK) software tools are an integral part of the book and provide computational platforms for all the models discussed herein. The most recent versions of these two softwa...

  16. Conducting effective performance appraisals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2001-01-01

    According to experts, performance appraisals rate just below firing someone as the least favorite thing managers do. Many factors contribute to this view--one is that current systems do a poor job of evaluating performance and in fact often impede both evaluation and performance. When used as part of an ongoing supportive process of goal setting and feedback, performance appraisals can enhance performance and morale. One alternative to traditional employee evaluation methods is full-circle or 360-degree feedback. Contained in this issue are practical suggestions for preparing employees for performance appraisals which, when followed daily, encourage employees to put their best feet forward as part of their regular routine. Also included is a template specific to assessing the performance of clinical laboratory technologists . Additionally, numerous resources are provided to help you refine appraisal systems to fit your needs. Full-circle feedback is proving to be a boon to managers. It relieves them from being the exclusive "heavies" in evaluating performance, integrates appraisal input from several sources, and incorporates increasing employee skills, competencies, and satisfaction, thus improving productivity of people and processes. And aren't integration and continuous improvement what the laboratory is all about?

  17. Statistical models for competing risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sather, H.N.

    1976-08-01

    Research results on three new models for potential applications in competing risks problems. One section covers the basic statistical relationships underlying the subsequent competing risks model development. Another discusses the problem of comparing cause-specific risk structure by competing risks theory in two homogeneous populations, P1 and P2. Weibull models which allow more generality than the Berkson and Elveback models are studied for the effect of time on the hazard function. The use of concomitant information for modeling single-risk survival is extended to the multiple failure mode domain of competing risks. The model used to illustrate the use of this methodology is a life table model which has constant hazards within pre-designated intervals of the time scale. Two parametric models for bivariate dependent competing risks, which provide interesting alternatives, are proposed and examined

  18. Risk matrix model for rotating equipment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wassan Rano Khan

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Different industries have various residual risk levels for their rotating equipment. Accordingly the occurrence rate of the failures and associated failure consequences categories are different. Thus, a generalized risk matrix model is developed in this study which can fit various available risk matrix standards. This generalized risk matrix will be helpful to develop new risk matrix, to fit the required risk assessment scenario for rotating equipment. Power generation system was taken as case study. It was observed that eight subsystems were under risk. Only vibration monitor system was under high risk category, while remaining seven subsystems were under serious and medium risk categories.

  19. Disclosure appraisal mediating the association between perceived stigma and HIV disclosure to casual sex partners among HIV+ MSM: a path model analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Haochu; Chen, Xinguang; Yu, Bin

    2016-01-01

    HIV stigma is widely believed to be related to HIV disclosure. However, there is a dearth of studies examining the mechanisms that link stigma to disclosure. This is a specific study to assess the relationship between perceived stigma and HIV disclosure to casual sex partners based on a social cognitive theory. HIV+ men who have sex with men (MSM) from two US cities (N = 297) completed questionnaires administered using audio computer-assisted self-interviewing. Path modeling analysis was used to assess the theory-based structural relationships. Perceived stigma was negatively associated with attitudes, intention and behavior of HIV disclosure to casual sex partners. The association was fully mediated by disclosure appraisal, including disclosure outcome expectations, costs and self-efficacy. Findings of this study add new knowledge regarding HIV stigma and disclosure, and provide timely data supporting more effective behavioral interventions to encourage HIV disclosure among MSM.

  20. Appraisal of Transport Projects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Anders Vestergaard

    and robustness measures have been elaborated, which examine the subjective part of the MCDA (in form of criteria weights) and its role in decision support making. For this purpose both deterministic and stochastic sensitivity analyses have been developed. In addition, the focus has been formulating a framework...... into account the interests and preferences of different stakeholders. These various interests and preferences have been revealed by the use of decision conferencing, which engage the stakeholders and provide a common platform for understanding the decision problem. Leading up to this framework, this thesis has......, as robustness of a recommended solution is major concern in the final steps of decision making. As mentioned, the appraisal of transport projects is a complex issues involving conflict of various interests and this calls for new approaches to the practice of appraisal. The presented appraisal framework...

  1. Models for assessing and managing credit risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neogradi Slađana

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This essay deals with the definition of a model for assessing and managing credit risk. Risk is an inseparable component of any average and normal credit transaction. Looking at the different aspects of the identification and classification of risk in the banking industry as well as representation of the key components of modern risk management. In the first part of the essay will analyze how the impact of credit risk on bank and empirical models for determining the financial difficulties in which the company can be found. Bank on the basis of these models can reduce number of approved risk assets. In the second part, we consider models for improving credit risk with emphasis on Basel I, II and III, and the third part, we conclude that the most appropriate model and gives the best effect for measuring credit risk in domestic banks.

  2. RISK LOAN PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION MODEL BASED ON CVAR RISK MEASURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming-Chang LEE

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available In order to achieve commercial banks liquidity, safety and profitability objective requirements, loan portfolio risk analysis based optimization decisions are rational allocation of assets.  The risk analysis and asset allocation are the key technology of banking and risk management.  The aim of this paper, build a loan portfolio optimization model based on risk analysis.  Loan portfolio rate of return by using Value-at-Risk (VaR and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR constraint optimization decision model reflects the bank's risk tolerance, and the potential loss of direct control of the bank.  In this paper, it analyze a general risk management model applied to portfolio problems with VaR and CVaR risk measures by using Using the Lagrangian Algorithm.  This paper solves the highly difficult problem by matrix operation method.  Therefore, the combination of this paper is easy understanding the portfolio problems with VaR and CVaR risk model is a hyperbola in mean-standard deviation space.  It is easy calculation in proposed method.

  3. The perception of the illness with subsequent outcome measure in more favorable in continuos peritoneal dialysis vs hemodialysis in the framework of appraisal model of stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nowak, Zbigniew; Laudański, Krzysztof

    2014-01-01

    The aim of the study was to use the appraisal model of stress to compare hemodialysis (HD) and continuous peritoneal dialysis (CAPD) patients with special focus on the perception of end-stage renal disease and subsequent emotional profile and health related quality of life (HQoL) in. We hypothesize that different circumstances related to both modes of therapies will result in dissimilar perception of chronic illness with subsequent changes in emotional profile and heath related quality of life. The total of 88 patients with end stage renal disease (ESRD) enrolled in hemodialysis (n=52; HD) or continuous peritoneal dialysis (n=36; CAPD) were given a battery of psychological tests: The Profile of Mood States, The Nottingham Health Profile, The Stress Situation Assessment Questionnaire, The Social Appreciation Questionnaire and The Situation and Trait and Anxiety Inventory. All patients perceived ESRD in terms of a loss and a threat. Moreover, CAPD patients evaluated ESRD as a challenge. Despite different perception of ESRD no significant difference in the level of fear, anxiety or emotional profile was found. Both HD and CAPD patient were reported more fatigue/inertia and confusion/bewilderment than control groups. The main health related complaints were similar in both ESRD patients with major complaints of sleeping disturbances, motor limitations and lack of energy. From the psychological point of view, CAPD treatment seems more like challenge to the enrolled patient which is positive outcome. Despite different appraisal of stress mood and health related complaints were similar in both groups. This may be a result of optimal regulation of cognitive perception of the stress depending on the circumstances of therapy.

  4. 41 Appraisal of the Performance of Contingency Cost Provision for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Arc. Usman A. Jalam

    ATBU Journal of Environmental Technology, 4, (1), December 2011. 41. Appraisal of the ... quantitative risks analysis in the determination of contingency fund. Therefore, to improve the ... the financial performance of constructed facilities ...

  5. MODELING CREDIT RISK THROUGH CREDIT SCORING

    OpenAIRE

    Adrian Cantemir CALIN; Oana Cristina POPOVICI

    2014-01-01

    Credit risk governs all financial transactions and it is defined as the risk of suffering a loss due to certain shifts in the credit quality of a counterpart. Credit risk literature gravitates around two main modeling approaches: the structural approach and the reduced form approach. In addition to these perspectives, credit risk assessment has been conducted through a series of techniques such as credit scoring models, which form the traditional approach. This paper examines the evolution of...

  6. Precompetitive achievement goals, stress appraisals, emotions, and coping among athletes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholls, Adam R; Perry, John L; Calmeiro, Luis

    2014-10-01

    Grounded in Lazarus's (1991, 1999, 2000) cognitive-motivational-relational theory of emotions, we tested a model of achievement goals, stress appraisals, emotions, and coping. We predicted that precompetitive achievement goals would be associated with appraisals, appraisals with emotions, and emotions with coping in our model. The mediating effects of emotions among the overall sample of 827 athletes and two stratified random subsamples were also explored. The results of this study support our proposed model in the overall sample and the stratified subsamples. Further, emotion mediated the relationship between appraisal and coping. Mediation analyses revealed that there were indirect effects of pleasant and unpleasant emotions, which indicates the importance of examining multiple emotions to reveal a more accurate representation of the overall stress process. Our findings indicate that both appraisals and emotions are just as important in shaping coping.

  7. A comparison of models for risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kellerer, A.M.; Jing Chen

    1993-01-01

    Various mathematical models have been used to represent the dependence of excess cancer risk on dose, age and time since exposure. For solid cancers, i.e. all cancers except leukaemia, the so-called relative risk model is usually employed. However, there can be quite different relative risk models. The most usual model for the quantification of excess tumour rate among the atomic bomb survivors has been a dependence of the relative risk on age at exposure, but it has been shown recently that an age attained model can be equally applied, to represent the observations among the atomic bomb survivors. The differences between the models and their implications are explained. It is also shown that the age attained model is similar to the approaches that have been used in the analysis of lung cancer incidence among radon exposed miners. A more unified approach to modelling of radiation risks can thus be achieved. (3 figs.)

  8. Models for mature T-cell lymphomas--a critical appraisal of experimental systems and their contribution to current T-cell tumorigenic concepts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warner, Kathrin; Crispatzu, Giuliano; Al-Ghaili, Nabil; Weit, Nicole; Florou, Vaia; You, M James; Newrzela, Sebastian; Herling, Marco

    2013-12-01

    Mature T-cell lymphomas/leukemias (MTCL) have been understudied lymphoid neoplasms that currently receive growing attention. Our historically rudimentary molecular understanding and dissatisfactory interventional success in this complex and for the most part poor-prognostic group of tumors is only slightly improving. A major limiting aspect in further progress in these rare neoplasms is the lack of suitable model systems that would substantially facilitate pathogenic studies and pre-clinical drug evaluations. Such representations of MTCL have thus far not been systematically appraised. We therefore provide an overview on existing models and point out their particular advantages and limitations in the context of the specific scientific questions. After addressing issues of species-specific differences and classifications, we summarize data on MTCL cell lines of human as well as murine origin, on murine strain predispositions to MTCL, on available models of genetically engineered mice, and on transplant systems. From an in-silico meta-analysis of available primary data of gene expression profiles on human MTCL we cross-reference genes reported to transform T-cells in mice and reflect on their general vs entity-restricted relevance and on target-promoter influences. Overall, we identify the urgent need for new models of higher fidelity to human MTCL with respect to their increasingly recognized diversity and to predictions of drug response. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Competing Risks and Multistate Models with R

    CERN Document Server

    Beyersmann, Jan; Schumacher, Martin

    2012-01-01

    This book covers competing risks and multistate models, sometimes summarized as event history analysis. These models generalize the analysis of time to a single event (survival analysis) to analysing the timing of distinct terminal events (competing risks) and possible intermediate events (multistate models). Both R and multistate methods are promoted with a focus on nonparametric methods.

  10. Modeling Research Project Risks with Fuzzy Maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodea, Constanta Nicoleta; Dascalu, Mariana Iuliana

    2009-01-01

    The authors propose a risks evaluation model for research projects. The model is based on fuzzy inference. The knowledge base for fuzzy process is built with a causal and cognitive map of risks. The map was especially developed for research projects, taken into account their typical lifecycle. The model was applied to an e-testing research…

  11. Risk Modelling for Passages in Approach Channel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leszek Smolarek

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Methods of multivariate statistics, stochastic processes, and simulation methods are used to identify and assess the risk measures. This paper presents the use of generalized linear models and Markov models to study risks to ships along the approach channel. These models combined with simulation testing are used to determine the time required for continuous monitoring of endangered objects or period at which the level of risk should be verified.

  12. Modeling for operational event risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sattison, M.B.

    1997-01-01

    The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission has been using risk models to evaluate the risk significance of operational events in U.S. commercial nuclear power plants for more seventeen years. During that time, the models have evolved in response to the advances in risk assessment technology and insights gained with experience. Evaluation techniques fall into two categories, initiating event assessments and condition assessments. The models used for these analyses have become uniquely specialized for just this purpose

  13. MATHEMATICAL RISK ANALYSIS: VIA NICHOLAS RISK MODEL AND BAYESIAN ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anass BAYAGA

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this second part of a two-phased study was to explorethe predictive power of quantitative risk analysis (QRA method andprocess within Higher Education Institution (HEI. The method and process investigated the use impact analysis via Nicholas risk model and Bayesian analysis, with a sample of hundred (100 risk analysts in a historically black South African University in the greater Eastern Cape Province.The first findings supported and confirmed previous literature (KingIII report, 2009: Nicholas and Steyn, 2008: Stoney, 2007: COSA, 2004 that there was a direct relationship between risk factor, its likelihood and impact, certiris paribus. The second finding in relation to either controlling the likelihood or the impact of occurrence of risk (Nicholas risk model was that to have a brighter risk reward, it was important to control the likelihood ofoccurrence of risks as compared with its impact so to have a direct effect on entire University. On the Bayesian analysis, thus third finding, the impact of risk should be predicted along three aspects. These aspects included the human impact (decisions made, the property impact (students and infrastructural based and the business impact. Lastly, the study revealed that although in most business cases, where as business cycles considerably vary dependingon the industry and or the institution, this study revealed that, most impacts in HEI (University was within the period of one academic.The recommendation was that application of quantitative risk analysisshould be related to current legislative framework that affects HEI.

  14. Korean risk assessment model for breast cancer risk prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Boyoung; Ma, Seung Hyun; Shin, Aesun; Chang, Myung-Chul; Choi, Ji-Yeob; Kim, Sungwan; Han, Wonshik; Noh, Dong-Young; Ahn, Sei-Hyun; Kang, Daehee; Yoo, Keun-Young; Park, Sue K

    2013-01-01

    We evaluated the performance of the Gail model for a Korean population and developed a Korean breast cancer risk assessment tool (KoBCRAT) based upon equations developed for the Gail model for predicting breast cancer risk. Using 3,789 sets of cases and controls, risk factors for breast cancer among Koreans were identified. Individual probabilities were projected using Gail's equations and Korean hazard data. We compared the 5-year and lifetime risk produced using the modified Gail model which applied Korean incidence and mortality data and the parameter estimators from the original Gail model with those produced using the KoBCRAT. We validated the KoBCRAT based on the expected/observed breast cancer incidence and area under the curve (AUC) using two Korean cohorts: the Korean Multicenter Cancer Cohort (KMCC) and National Cancer Center (NCC) cohort. The major risk factors under the age of 50 were family history, age at menarche, age at first full-term pregnancy, menopausal status, breastfeeding duration, oral contraceptive usage, and exercise, while those at and over the age of 50 were family history, age at menarche, age at menopause, pregnancy experience, body mass index, oral contraceptive usage, and exercise. The modified Gail model produced lower 5-year risk for the cases than for the controls (p = 0.017), while the KoBCRAT produced higher 5-year and lifetime risk for the cases than for the controls (pKorean women, especially urban women.

  15. (Un)ethical behavior and performance appraisal: the role of affect, support, and organizational justice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jacobs, G.; Belschak, F.D.; den Hartog, D.N.

    2014-01-01

    Performance appraisals are widely used as an HR instrument. This study among 332 police officers examines the effects of performance appraisals from a behavioral ethics perspective. A mediation model relating justice perceptions of police officers’ last performance appraisal to their work affect,

  16. ISM Approach to Model Offshore Outsourcing Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sunand Kumar

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available In an effort to achieve a competitive advantage via cost reductions and improved market responsiveness, organizations are increasingly employing offshore outsourcing as a major component of their supply chain strategies. But as evident from literature number of risks such as Political risk, Risk due to cultural differences, Compliance and regulatory risk, Opportunistic risk and Organization structural risk, which adversely affect the performance of offshore outsourcing in a supply chain network. This also leads to dissatisfaction among different stake holders. The main objective of this paper is to identify and understand the mutual interaction among various risks which affect the performance of offshore outsourcing.  To this effect, authors have identified various risks through extant review of literature.  From this information, an integrated model using interpretive structural modelling (ISM for risks affecting offshore outsourcing is developed and the structural relationships between these risks are modeled.  Further, MICMAC analysis is done to analyze the driving power and dependency of risks which shall be helpful to managers to identify and classify important criterions and to reveal the direct and indirect effects of each criterion on offshore outsourcing. Results show that political risk and risk due to cultural differences are act as strong drivers.

  17. Why employees with higher challenging appraisals style are more affectively engaged at work? The role of challenging stressors: a moderated mediation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Shin-Huei; Wu, Chia-Huei; Chen, Mei-Yen; Chen, Lung Hung

    2014-10-01

    Challenging stressors have been positively linked to various work outcomes. However, the role of individual differences in stress appraisal in shaping the function of challenging stressors and work outcomes has been rarely discussed. Drawing on the individual differences perspective, the authors propose that employees higher in challenge appraisal are more likely to have challenging stressors and are more responsive to such stressors to have a higher positive affect at work. Results obtained from 117 employees supported the hypotheses. The results indicated that challenge appraisal is positively related to challenging stressors. In addition, challenging stressors has a positive association with positive affect at work when challenge appraisal is high but has a null association when challenge appraisal is low. The findings suggest that challenging stressors does not necessarily bring positive work outcomes as suggested in past studies and highlight the importance of considering dispositional tendency in stress appraisal when looking into the function of challenging stressors and work outcomes. © 2014 International Union of Psychological Science.

  18. Concordance for prognostic models with competing risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wolbers, Marcel; Blanche, Paul; Koller, Michael T

    2014-01-01

    The concordance probability is a widely used measure to assess discrimination of prognostic models with binary and survival endpoints. We formally define the concordance probability for a prognostic model of the absolute risk of an event of interest in the presence of competing risks and relate i...

  19. Why operational risk modelling creates inverse incentives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Doff, R.

    2015-01-01

    Operational risk modelling has become commonplace in large international banks and is gaining popularity in the insurance industry as well. This is partly due to financial regulation (Basel II, Solvency II). This article argues that operational risk modelling is fundamentally flawed, despite efforts

  20. Calculating excess lifetime risk in relative risk models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vaeth, M.; Pierce, D.A.

    1990-01-01

    When assessing the impact of radiation exposure it is common practice to present the final conclusions in terms of excess lifetime cancer risk in a population exposed to a given dose. The present investigation is mainly a methodological study focusing on some of the major issues and uncertainties involved in calculating such excess lifetime risks and related risk projection methods. The age-constant relative risk model used in the recent analyses of the cancer mortality that was observed in the follow-up of the cohort of A-bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki is used to describe the effect of the exposure on the cancer mortality. In this type of model the excess relative risk is constant in age-at-risk, but depends on the age-at-exposure. Calculation of excess lifetime risks usually requires rather complicated life-table computations. In this paper we propose a simple approximation to the excess lifetime risk; the validity of the approximation for low levels of exposure is justified empirically as well as theoretically. This approximation provides important guidance in understanding the influence of the various factors involved in risk projections. Among the further topics considered are the influence of a latent period, the additional problems involved in calculations of site-specific excess lifetime cancer risks, the consequences of a leveling off or a plateau in the excess relative risk, and the uncertainties involved in transferring results from one population to another. The main part of this study relates to the situation with a single, instantaneous exposure, but a brief discussion is also given of the problem with a continuous exposure at a low-dose rate

  1. A methodology for modeling regional terrorism risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chatterjee, Samrat; Abkowitz, Mark D

    2011-07-01

    Over the past decade, terrorism risk has become a prominent consideration in protecting the well-being of individuals and organizations. More recently, there has been interest in not only quantifying terrorism risk, but also placing it in the context of an all-hazards environment in which consideration is given to accidents and natural hazards, as well as intentional acts. This article discusses the development of a regional terrorism risk assessment model designed for this purpose. The approach taken is to model terrorism risk as a dependent variable, expressed in expected annual monetary terms, as a function of attributes of population concentration and critical infrastructure. This allows for an assessment of regional terrorism risk in and of itself, as well as in relation to man-made accident and natural hazard risks, so that mitigation resources can be allocated in an effective manner. The adopted methodology incorporates elements of two terrorism risk modeling approaches (event-based models and risk indicators), producing results that can be utilized at various jurisdictional levels. The validity, strengths, and limitations of the model are discussed in the context of a case study application within the United States. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  2. A Network Model of Credit Risk Contagion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ting-Qiang Chen

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available A network model of credit risk contagion is presented, in which the effect of behaviors of credit risk holders and the financial market regulators and the network structure are considered. By introducing the stochastic dominance theory, we discussed, respectively, the effect mechanisms of the degree of individual relationship, individual attitude to credit risk contagion, the individual ability to resist credit risk contagion, the monitoring strength of the financial market regulators, and the network structure on credit risk contagion. Then some derived and proofed propositions were verified through numerical simulations.

  3. 78 FR 10367 - Appraisals for Higher-Priced Mortgage Loans

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-02-13

    ... the current sale. A creditor of a ``higher-risk mortgage'' must also: Provide the applicant, at the... addition, the final rule implements the Act's requirement that the creditor of a ``higher-risk mortgage... provision requiring appraisals for ``higher-risk mortgages'' that was added to TILA by the Dodd-Frank Wall...

  4. Expert judgement models in quantitative risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosqvist, T. [VTT Automation, Helsinki (Finland); Tuominen, R. [VTT Automation, Tampere (Finland)

    1999-12-01

    Expert judgement is a valuable source of information in risk management. Especially, risk-based decision making relies significantly on quantitative risk assessment, which requires numerical data describing the initiator event frequencies and conditional probabilities in the risk model. This data is seldom found in databases and has to be elicited from qualified experts. In this report, we discuss some modelling approaches to expert judgement in risk modelling. A classical and a Bayesian expert model is presented and applied to real case expert judgement data. The cornerstone in the models is the log-normal distribution, which is argued to be a satisfactory choice for modelling degree-of-belief type probability distributions with respect to the unknown parameters in a risk model. Expert judgements are qualified according to bias, dispersion, and dependency, which are treated differently in the classical and Bayesian approaches. The differences are pointed out and related to the application task. Differences in the results obtained from the different approaches, as applied to real case expert judgement data, are discussed. Also, the role of a degree-of-belief type probability in risk decision making is discussed.

  5. Expert judgement models in quantitative risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosqvist, T.; Tuominen, R.

    1999-01-01

    Expert judgement is a valuable source of information in risk management. Especially, risk-based decision making relies significantly on quantitative risk assessment, which requires numerical data describing the initiator event frequencies and conditional probabilities in the risk model. This data is seldom found in databases and has to be elicited from qualified experts. In this report, we discuss some modelling approaches to expert judgement in risk modelling. A classical and a Bayesian expert model is presented and applied to real case expert judgement data. The cornerstone in the models is the log-normal distribution, which is argued to be a satisfactory choice for modelling degree-of-belief type probability distributions with respect to the unknown parameters in a risk model. Expert judgements are qualified according to bias, dispersion, and dependency, which are treated differently in the classical and Bayesian approaches. The differences are pointed out and related to the application task. Differences in the results obtained from the different approaches, as applied to real case expert judgement data, are discussed. Also, the role of a degree-of-belief type probability in risk decision making is discussed

  6. Characterising bias in regulatory risk and decision analysis: An analysis of heuristics applied in health technology appraisal, chemicals regulation, and climate change governance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacGillivray, Brian H

    2017-08-01

    In many environmental and public health domains, heuristic methods of risk and decision analysis must be relied upon, either because problem structures are ambiguous, reliable data is lacking, or decisions are urgent. This introduces an additional source of uncertainty beyond model and measurement error - uncertainty stemming from relying on inexact inference rules. Here we identify and analyse heuristics used to prioritise risk objects, to discriminate between signal and noise, to weight evidence, to construct models, to extrapolate beyond datasets, and to make policy. Some of these heuristics are based on causal generalisations, yet can misfire when these relationships are presumed rather than tested (e.g. surrogates in clinical trials). Others are conventions designed to confer stability to decision analysis, yet which may introduce serious error when applied ritualistically (e.g. significance testing). Some heuristics can be traced back to formal justifications, but only subject to strong assumptions that are often violated in practical applications. Heuristic decision rules (e.g. feasibility rules) in principle act as surrogates for utility maximisation or distributional concerns, yet in practice may neglect costs and benefits, be based on arbitrary thresholds, and be prone to gaming. We highlight the problem of rule-entrenchment, where analytical choices that are in principle contestable are arbitrarily fixed in practice, masking uncertainty and potentially introducing bias. Strategies for making risk and decision analysis more rigorous include: formalising the assumptions and scope conditions under which heuristics should be applied; testing rather than presuming their underlying empirical or theoretical justifications; using sensitivity analysis, simulations, multiple bias analysis, and deductive systems of inference (e.g. directed acyclic graphs) to characterise rule uncertainty and refine heuristics; adopting "recovery schemes" to correct for known biases

  7. Risk modelling study for carotid endarterectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuhan, G; Gardiner, E D; Abidia, A F; Chetter, I C; Renwick, P M; Johnson, B F; Wilkinson, A R; McCollum, P T

    2001-12-01

    The aims of this study were to identify factors that influence the risk of stroke or death following carotid endarterectomy (CEA) and to develop a model to aid in comparative audit of vascular surgeons and units. A series of 839 CEAs performed by four vascular surgeons between 1992 and 1999 was analysed. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to model the effect of 15 possible risk factors on the 30-day risk of stroke or death. Outcome was compared for four surgeons and two units after adjustment for the significant risk factors. The overall 30-day stroke or death rate was 3.9 per cent (29 of 741). Heart disease, diabetes and stroke were significant risk factors. The 30-day predicted stroke or death rates increased with increasing risk scores. The observed 30-day stroke or death rate was 3.9 per cent for both vascular units and varied from 3.0 to 4.2 per cent for the four vascular surgeons. Differences in the outcomes between the surgeons and vascular units did not reach statistical significance after risk adjustment. Diabetes, heart disease and stroke are significant risk factors for stroke or death following CEA. The risk score model identified patients at higher risk and aided in comparative audit.

  8. The interpersonal dimension in the classroom : a model of teachers' interpersonal role identity, appraisal and teacher-student relationships

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brok, den P.J.; Want, van der A.C.; Beijaard, D.; Wubbels, Th.; Gallant, A.; Newberry, M.; Riley, P.

    2013-01-01

    In this chapter, a model to understand teachers’ emotions and behaviors in the classroom in relation to their professional identity will be presented and illustrated with empirical data. In the model it is argued that two types of teacher emotions, in this case associated with the domain of

  9. Competing Risks Copula Models for Unemployment Duration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lo, Simon M. S.; Stephan, Gesine; Wilke, Ralf

    2017-01-01

    The copula graphic estimator (CGE) for competing risks models has received little attention in empirical research, despite having been developed into a comprehensive research method. In this paper, we bridge the gap between theoretical developments and applied research by considering a general...... class of competing risks copula models, which nests popular models such as the Cox proportional hazards model, the semiparametric multivariate mixed proportional hazards model (MMPHM), and the CGE as special cases. Analyzing the effects of a German Hartz reform on unemployment duration, we illustrate...

  10. Risk Monitoring through Traceability Information Model

    OpenAIRE

    Juan P. Zamora; Wilson Adarme; Laura Palacios

    2012-01-01

    This paper shows a traceability framework for supply risk monitoring, beginning with the identification, analysis, and evaluation of the supply chain risk and focusing on the supply operations of the Health Care Institutions with oncology services in Bogota, Colombia. It includes a brief presentation of the state of the art of the Supply Chain Risk Management and traceability systems in logistics operations, and it concludes with the methodology to integrate the SCRM model with the traceabili...

  11. When the model fits the frame: the impact of regulatory fit on efficacy appraisal and persuasion in health communication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosone, Lucia; Martinez, Frédéric; Kalampalikis, Nikos

    2015-04-01

    In health-promotional campaigns, positive and negative role models can be deployed to illustrate the benefits or costs of certain behaviors. The main purpose of this article is to investigate why, how, and when exposure to role models strengthens the persuasiveness of a message, according to regulatory fit theory. We argue that exposure to a positive versus a negative model activates individuals' goals toward promotion rather than prevention. By means of two experiments, we demonstrate that high levels of persuasion occur when a message advertising healthy dietary habits offers a regulatory fit between its framing and the described role model. Our data also establish that the effects of such internal regulatory fit by vicarious experience depend on individuals' perceptions of response-efficacy and self-efficacy. Our findings constitute a significant theoretical complement to previous research on regulatory fit and contain valuable practical implications for health-promotional campaigns. © 2015 by the Society for Personality and Social Psychology, Inc.

  12. Criterion of Semi-Markov Dependent Risk Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xiao Yun MO; Xiang Qun YANG

    2014-01-01

    A rigorous definition of semi-Markov dependent risk model is given. This model is a generalization of the Markov dependent risk model. A criterion and necessary conditions of semi-Markov dependent risk model are obtained. The results clarify relations between elements among semi-Markov dependent risk model more clear and are applicable for Markov dependent risk model.

  13. Risk management model of winter navigation operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Valdez Banda, Osiris A.; Goerlandt, Floris; Kuzmin, Vladimir; Kujala, Pentti; Montewka, Jakub

    2016-01-01

    The wintertime maritime traffic operations in the Gulf of Finland are managed through the Finnish–Swedish Winter Navigation System. This establishes the requirements and limitations for the vessels navigating when ice covers this area. During winter navigation in the Gulf of Finland, the largest risk stems from accidental ship collisions which may also trigger oil spills. In this article, a model for managing the risk of winter navigation operations is presented. The model analyses the probability of oil spills derived from collisions involving oil tanker vessels and other vessel types. The model structure is based on the steps provided in the Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and adapted into a Bayesian Network model. The results indicate that ship independent navigation and convoys are the operations with higher probability of oil spills. Minor spills are most probable, while major oil spills found very unlikely but possible. - Highlights: •A model to assess and manage the risk of winter navigation operations is proposed. •The risks of oil spills in winter navigation in the Gulf of Finland are analysed. •The model assesses and prioritizes actions to control the risk of the operations. •The model suggests navigational training as the most efficient risk control option.

  14. 32 CFR 644.44 - Fee appraisals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... HANDBOOK Appraisal § 644.44 Fee appraisals. (a) Definitions and procedures. (1) The complete and.... The keynote of this approach lies in the sound development of a proper rate. The appraiser must have a...

  15. Unicellular eukaryotes as models in cell and molecular biology: critical appraisal of their past and future value.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simon, Martin; Plattner, Helmut

    2014-01-01

    Unicellular eukaryotes have been appreciated as model systems for the analysis of crucial questions in cell and molecular biology. This includes Dictyostelium (chemotaxis, amoeboid movement, phagocytosis), Tetrahymena (telomere structure, telomerase function), Paramecium (variant surface antigens, exocytosis, phagocytosis cycle) or both ciliates (ciliary beat regulation, surface pattern formation), Chlamydomonas (flagellar biogenesis and beat), and yeast (S. cerevisiae) for innumerable aspects. Nowadays many problems may be tackled with "higher" eukaryotic/metazoan cells for which full genomic information as well as domain databases, etc., were available long before protozoa. Established molecular tools, commercial antibodies, and established pharmacology are additional advantages available for higher eukaryotic cells. Moreover, an increasing number of inherited genetic disturbances in humans have become elucidated and can serve as new models. Among lower eukaryotes, yeast will remain a standard model because of its peculiarities, including its reduced genome and availability in the haploid form. But do protists still have a future as models? This touches not only the basic understanding of biology but also practical aspects of research, such as fund raising. As we try to scrutinize, due to specific advantages some protozoa should and will remain favorable models for analyzing novel genes or specific aspects of cell structure and function. Outstanding examples are epigenetic phenomena-a field of rising interest. © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Strategic appraisal of environmental risks: a contrast between the United Kingdom's Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change and its Committee on Radioactive Waste Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dietz, Simon; Morton, Alec

    2011-01-01

    In this article, we compare two high-profile strategic policy reviews undertaken for the U.K. government on environmental risks: radioactive waste management and climate change. These reviews took very different forms, both in terms of analytic approach and deliberation strategy. The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change was largely an exercise in expert modeling, building, within a cost-benefit framework, an argument for immediate reductions in carbon emissions. The Committee on Radioactive Waste Management, on the other hand, followed a much more explicitly deliberative and participative process, using multicriteria decision analysis to bring together scientific evidence and stakeholder and public values. In this article, we ask why the two reviews were different, and whether the differences are justified. We conclude that the differences were mainly due to political context, rather than the underpinning science, and as a consequence that, while in our view "fit for purpose," they would both have been stronger had they been less different. Stern's grappling with ethical issues could have been strengthened by a greater degree of public and stakeholder engagement, and the Committee on Radioactive Waste Management's handling of issues of uncertainty could have been strengthened by the explicitly probabilistic framework of Stern. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

  17. A model-based risk management framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gran, Bjoern Axel; Fredriksen, Rune

    2002-08-15

    The ongoing research activity addresses these issues through two co-operative activities. The first is the IST funded research project CORAS, where Institutt for energiteknikk takes part as responsible for the work package for Risk Analysis. The main objective of the CORAS project is to develop a framework to support risk assessment of security critical systems. The second, called the Halden Open Dependability Demonstrator (HODD), is established in cooperation between Oestfold University College, local companies and HRP. The objective of HODD is to provide an open-source test bed for testing, teaching and learning about risk analysis methods, risk analysis tools, and fault tolerance techniques. The Inverted Pendulum Control System (IPCON), which main task is to keep a pendulum balanced and controlled, is the first system that has been established. In order to make risk assessment one need to know what a system does, or is intended to do. Furthermore, the risk assessment requires correct descriptions of the system, its context and all relevant features. A basic assumption is that a precise model of this knowledge, based on formal or semi-formal descriptions, such as UML, will facilitate a systematic risk assessment. It is also necessary to have a framework to integrate the different risk assessment methods. The experiences so far support this hypothesis. This report presents CORAS and the CORAS model-based risk management framework, including a preliminary guideline for model-based risk assessment. The CORAS framework for model-based risk analysis offers a structured and systematic approach to identify and assess security issues of ICT systems. From the initial assessment of IPCON, we also believe that the framework is applicable in a safety context. Further work on IPCON, as well as the experiences from the CORAS trials, will provide insight and feedback for further improvements. (Author)

  18. Statistical analysis of the uncertainty related to flood hazard appraisal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Notaro, Vincenza; Freni, Gabriele

    2015-12-01

    The estimation of flood hazard frequency statistics for an urban catchment is of great interest in practice. It provides the evaluation of potential flood risk and related damage and supports decision making for flood risk management. Flood risk is usually defined as function of the probability, that a system deficiency can cause flooding (hazard), and the expected damage, due to the flooding magnitude (damage), taking into account both the exposure and the vulnerability of the goods at risk. The expected flood damage can be evaluated by an a priori estimation of potential damage caused by flooding or by interpolating real damage data. With regard to flood hazard appraisal several procedures propose to identify some hazard indicator (HI) such as flood depth or the combination of flood depth and velocity and to assess the flood hazard corresponding to the analyzed area comparing the HI variables with user-defined threshold values or curves (penalty curves or matrixes). However, flooding data are usually unavailable or piecemeal allowing for carrying out a reliable flood hazard analysis, therefore hazard analysis is often performed by means of mathematical simulations aimed at evaluating water levels and flow velocities over catchment surface. As results a great part of the uncertainties intrinsic to flood risk appraisal can be related to the hazard evaluation due to the uncertainty inherent to modeling results and to the subjectivity of the user defined hazard thresholds applied to link flood depth to a hazard level. In the present work, a statistical methodology was proposed for evaluating and reducing the uncertainties connected with hazard level estimation. The methodology has been applied to a real urban watershed as case study.

  19. The air emissions risk assessment model (AERAM)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gratt, L.B.

    1991-01-01

    AERAM is an environmental analysis and power generation station investment decision support tool. AERAM calculates the public health risk (in terms of the lifetime cancers) in the nearby population from pollutants released into the air. AERAM consists of four main subroutines: Emissions, Air, Exposure and Risk. The Emission subroutine uses power plant parameters to calculate the expected release of the pollutants. A coal-fired and oil-fired power plant are currently available. A gas-fired plant model is under preparation. The release of the pollutants into the air is followed by their dispersal in the environment. The dispersion in the Air Subroutine uses the Environmental Protection Agency's model, Industrial Source Complex-Long Term. Additional dispersion models (Industrial Source Complex - Short Term and Cooling Tower Drift) are being implemented for future AERAM versions. The Expose Subroutine uses the ambient concentrations to compute population exposures for the pollutants of concern. The exposures are used with corresponding dose-response model in the Risk Subroutine to estimate both the total population risk and individual risk. The risk for the dispersion receptor-population centroid for the maximum concentration is also calculated for regulatory-population purposes. In addition, automated interfaces with AirTox (an air risk decision model) have been implemented to extend AERAM's steady-state single solution to the decision-under-uncertainty domain. AERAM was used for public health risks, the investment decision for additional pollution control systems based on health risk reductions, and the economics of fuel vs. health risk tradeoffs. AERAM provides that state-of-the-art capability for evaluating the public health impact airborne toxic substances in response to regulations and public concern

  20. Perceptions and Beliefs on Aging and Their Impact on Elderly General Health: An Appraisal of Self-Regulation Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ebrahim Masoudnia

    2016-07-01

    Conclusion: The perception toward aging is one of the important determinants and key predictors of elderly general health. Also, the self-regulation model proves to be an appropriate framework to explain the role of beliefs, perceptions, and understanding of the experiences of aging on the physical and mental health status of the elderly.

  1. An appraisal profile of nostalgia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Tilburg, Wijnand A P; Bruder, Martin; Wildschut, Tim; Sedikides, Constantine; Göritz, Anja S

    2018-03-05

    The authors aimed to (a) identify the cognitive appraisals underlying nostalgia and (b) compare nostalgia with other emotions in terms of its appraisal profile. In Study 1, participants (N = 1,125) generated narratives. Next, they reported the level of nostalgia and 31 other emotions that these narratives elicited. Subsequently, participants evaluated the narrative events on several cognitive appraisals. Events that elicited nostalgia were pleasant, involved an irretrievable loss, felt psychologically distant, and were unique-an appraisal profile that differed from all other emotions. In Study 2 (N = 1,261), the authors experimentally varied these appraisals in a vignette paradigm and measured anticipated nostalgia and 10 other emotions. Participants anticipated most nostalgia when events were pleasant, involved irretrievable loss, were distant, and were unique-a profile shared only with longing. In Study 3 (N = 994), the authors used a guided autobiographical recall procedure in which they manipulated appraisals and measured the resultant emotions. Corroborating Studies 1-2, nostalgia was most intense for events that were pleasant, irretrievably lost, temporally distant, and unique. This appraisal profile was not shared by other emotions. The findings delineate the distinguishing cognitive appraisal profile of nostalgia. Nostalgia occupies a special place in the pantheon of emotions. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

  2. Current practices in economic appraisal

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mossink, J.C.M.

    2000-01-01

    By means of economic appraisal, the costs and the benefits of health, environment and safety management can be made clear, both at the national level and at the company level. As such it is a tool in advocating good practices. This paper explores the possibilities of economic appraisal for policy

  3. [A model list of high risk drugs].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cotrina Luque, J; Guerrero Aznar, M D; Alvarez del Vayo Benito, C; Jimenez Mesa, E; Guzman Laura, K P; Fernández Fernández, L

    2013-12-01

    «High-risk drugs» are those that have a very high «risk» of causing death or serious injury if an error occurs during its use. The Institute for Safe Medication Practices (ISMP) has prepared a high-risk drugs list applicable to the general population (with no differences between the pediatric and adult population). Thus, there is a lack of information for the pediatric population. The main objective of this work is to develop a high-risk drug list adapted to the neonatal or pediatric population as a reference model for the pediatric hospital health workforce. We made a literature search in May 2012 to identify any published lists or references in relation to pediatric and/or neonatal high-risk drugs. A total of 15 studies were found, from which 9 were selected. A model list was developed mainly based on the ISMP one, adding strongly perceived pediatric risk drugs and removing those where the pediatric use was anecdotal. There is no published list that suits pediatric risk management. The list of pediatric and neonatal high-risk drugs presented here could be a «reference list of high-risk drugs » for pediatric hospitals. Using this list and training will help to prevent medication errors in each drug supply chain (prescribing, transcribing, dispensing and administration). Copyright © 2013 Asociación Española de Pediatría. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  4. Etiopathogenesis of cataract: An appraisal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Varun B Gupta

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Natural eye lens is a crystalline substance to produce a clear passage for light. Cataract is opacity within the clear lens of the eye and is the dominant cause of socio-medical problem i.e., blindness worldwide. The only available treatment of cataract is surgery. However, insufficient surgical facilities in poor and developing countries and post-operative complications inspire researchers to find out other modes of treatment for cataract. In this review, an attempt has been made to appraise various etiological factors of cataract to make their perception clear to build up counterpart treatment. Present study is an assortment of various available literatures and electronic information in view of cataract etiopathogenesis. Various risk factors have been identified in development of cataracts. They can be classified in to genetic factors, ageing (systemic diseases, nutritional and trace metals deficiencies, smoking, oxidative stress etc., traumatic, complicated (inflammatory and degenerative diseases of eye, metabolic (diabetes, galactosemia etc., toxic substances including drugs abuses, alcohol etc., radiation (ultraviolet, electromagnetic waves etc. are implicated as significant risk factors in the development of cataract.

  5. A critical appraisal of the use of umbilical artery Doppler ultrasound in high-risk pregnancies: use of meta-analyses in evidence-based obstetrics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Westergaard, H.B.; Langhoff-Roos, J.; Lingman, G.

    2001-01-01

    Doppler velocimetry; high-risk pregnancy; meta-analysis; intrauterine growth restriction; perinatal mortality; umbilical artery......Doppler velocimetry; high-risk pregnancy; meta-analysis; intrauterine growth restriction; perinatal mortality; umbilical artery...

  6. Ecological models and pesticide risk assessment: current modeling practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmolke, Amelie; Thorbek, Pernille; Chapman, Peter; Grimm, Volker

    2010-04-01

    Ecological risk assessments of pesticides usually focus on risk at the level of individuals, and are carried out by comparing exposure and toxicological endpoints. However, in most cases the protection goal is populations rather than individuals. On the population level, effects of pesticides depend not only on exposure and toxicity, but also on factors such as life history characteristics, population structure, timing of application, presence of refuges in time and space, and landscape structure. Ecological models can integrate such factors and have the potential to become important tools for the prediction of population-level effects of exposure to pesticides, thus allowing extrapolations, for example, from laboratory to field. Indeed, a broad range of ecological models have been applied to chemical risk assessment in the scientific literature, but so far such models have only rarely been used to support regulatory risk assessments of pesticides. To better understand the reasons for this situation, the current modeling practice in this field was assessed in the present study. The scientific literature was searched for relevant models and assessed according to nine characteristics: model type, model complexity, toxicity measure, exposure pattern, other factors, taxonomic group, risk assessment endpoint, parameterization, and model evaluation. The present study found that, although most models were of a high scientific standard, many of them would need modification before they are suitable for regulatory risk assessments. The main shortcomings of currently available models in the context of regulatory pesticide risk assessments were identified. When ecological models are applied to regulatory risk assessments, we recommend reviewing these models according to the nine characteristics evaluated here. (c) 2010 SETAC.

  7. Stress appraisals and cellular aging: A key role for anticipatory threat in the relationship between psychological stress and telomere length

    Science.gov (United States)

    O’Donovan, Aoife; Tomiyama, A. Janet; Lin, Jue; Puterman, Eli; Adler, Nancy E.; Kemeny, Margaret; Wolkowitz, Owen M.; Blackburn, Elizabeth H.; Epel, Elissa S.

    2012-01-01

    Chronic psychological stressis a risk factor formultiple diseases of aging. Accelerated cellular aging as indexed by short telomere length has emerged as a potential common biological mechanism linking various forms of psychological stress and diseases of aging. Stress appraisals determine the degree and type of biological stress responses and altered stress appraisals may be a common psychological mechanism linking psychological stress and diseases of aging. However, no previous studies have examined the relationship between stress appraisals and telomere length. We exposed chronically stressed female caregivers and non-caregiving controls (N= 50; M age = 62.14±6.10) to a standardized acute laboratory stressor and measured their anticipatory and retrospective threat and challenge appraisals of the stressor. We hypothesized that threat and challenge appraisals would be associated with shorter and longer telomere length respectively, and that chronic care giving stress would influence telomere length through altered stress appraisals. Higher anticipatory threat appraisals were associated with shorter age-adjusted telomere length (β = −.32, p = .03), but challenge appraisals and retrospective threat appraisals showed no independent association with telomere length. Caregivers reported significantly higher anticipatory (β = −.36, p = .006)and retrospective (β = −.29, p = .03) threat appraisals than controls, but similar challenge appraisals. Although there was no significant main effect of caregiver status on telomere length, care giving had a significant indirect effect on telomere length through anticipatory threat appraisals. Exaggerated anticipatory threat appraisals may be a common and modifiable psychological mechanism of psychological stress effects on cellular aging. PMID:22293459

  8. La calidad de la evaluación y autoevaluación institucional: enfoques y modelos The quality of institutional assessment and self-appraisal: approaches and models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ricardo Figueroa Toala

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available La educación universitaria enfrenta grandes desafíos como el de gestionar el cambio que se ajuste a las demandas de la sociedad contemporánea. Una de las formas para sensibilizar al mundo académico y facilitar la innovación es la evaluación y la autoevaluación. En este trabajo se realizó un análisis tendencial de los diversos enfoques y modelos del proceso de evaluación y autoevaluación institucional; así como de las propensiones actuales del proceso autoevaluativo de las instituciones de la educación superior a través del concepto de calidad.One of the biggest challenges that University education faces nowadays, is to manage the corresponding changes that our contemporary society demands. A way to sensitize the academic world and to make innovation easier is through assessment and self-appraisal. This research work carried out a tendentious analysis of the different approaches and models of the institutional assessment and self-appraisal processes; as well as, of the current tendencies of the institutional self-appraisal process in higher education, by analyzing the concept of quality.

  9. Lung cancer risk models from experimental animals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gilbert, E.S.

    1988-03-01

    The objective of this paper is to present analyses of data based on methods that adequately account for time-related factors and competiting risks, and that yield results that are expressed in a form comparable to results obtained from recent analyses of epidemiological studies of humans exposed to radon and radon daughters. These epidemiological analyses have modeled the hazard, or age-specific death rates, as a function of factors such as dose and dose rate, time from exposure, and time from cessation of exposure. The starting point for many of the analyses of human data has been the constant relative risk modeling which the age-specific death rates are assumed to be a function of cumulative dose, and the risks due to exposure are assumed to be proportional to the age-specific baseline death rates. However, departures from this initial model, such as dependence of risks on age at risk and/or time from exposure, have been investigated. These analyses have frequently been based on a non-parametric model that requires minimal assumptions regarding the baseline risks and their dependence on age

  10. Quantitative occupational risk model: Single hazard

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Papazoglou, I.A.; Aneziris, O.N.; Bellamy, L.J.; Ale, B.J.M.; Oh, J.

    2017-01-01

    A model for the quantification of occupational risk of a worker exposed to a single hazard is presented. The model connects the working conditions and worker behaviour to the probability of an accident resulting into one of three types of consequence: recoverable injury, permanent injury and death. Working conditions and safety barriers in place to reduce the likelihood of an accident are included. Logical connections are modelled through an influence diagram. Quantification of the model is based on two sources of information: a) number of accidents observed over a period of time and b) assessment of exposure data of activities and working conditions over the same period of time and the same working population. Effectiveness of risk reducing measures affecting the working conditions, worker behaviour and/or safety barriers can be quantified through the effect of these measures on occupational risk. - Highlights: • Quantification of occupational risk from a single hazard. • Influence diagram connects working conditions, worker behaviour and safety barriers. • Necessary data include the number of accidents and the total exposure of worker • Effectiveness of risk reducing measures is quantified through the impact on the risk • An example illustrates the methodology.

  11. Appraisal of the remineralizing potential of child formula dentifrices on primary teeth: An i n vitropH cycling model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M Kiranmayi

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim: To evaluate the remineralizing potential of child formula dentifrices on primary teeth using an in vitro 7 days pH cycling model. Materials and Methods: Twenty-one primary teeth were placed in demineralizing solution for 96 h to produce artificial carious lesions; then cut longitudinally into 100-150 μm thick sections and randomly assigned to three groups. Sections in Group A were treated with dentifrice containing 458 ppm monofluorophosphate (MFP and sections in Group B with 500 ppm sodium fluoride (NaF. Group C sections were treated with a nonfluoridated dentifrice. Results: Group A (458 ppm MFP and Group B (500 ppm NaF showed significant decrease in lesion depth, whereas Group C (non F showed a significant increase in depth (P ≤ 0.05, paired t-test. Conclusion: Though dentifrices containing 458 ppm MFP and 500 ppm NaF demonstrated remineralization of carious lesions, it was not complete. Therefore, it is also important to emphasize on other preventive methods in the prevention and/or reversal of carious lesions.

  12. MAPS Appraisal Report Form

    CERN Multimedia

    HR Department

    2005-01-01

    As announced in Weekly Bulletin 48/2004, from now onwards, the paper MAPS appraisal report form has been replaced by an electronic form, which is available via EDH (on the EDH desktop under Other Tasks / HR & Training) No changes have been made to the contents of the form. Practical information will be available on the web page http://cern.ch/ais/projs/forms/maps/info.htm, and information meetings will be held on the following dates: 18 January 2005: MAIN AUDITORIUM (500-1-001) from 14:00 to 15:30. 20 January 2005: AB AUDITORIUM II (864-1-D02) from14:00 to 15:30. 24 January 2005: AT AUDITORIUM (30-7-018) from 10:00 to 11:30. Human Resources Department Tel. 73566

  13. Appraising Adaptive Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kai N. Lee

    1999-12-01

    Full Text Available Adaptive management is appraised as a policy implementation approach by examining its conceptual, technical, equity, and practical strengths and limitations. Three conclusions are drawn: (1 Adaptive management has been more influential, so far, as an idea than as a practical means of gaining insight into the behavior of ecosystems utilized and inhabited by humans. (2 Adaptive management should be used only after disputing parties have agreed to an agenda of questions to be answered using the adaptive approach; this is not how the approach has been used. (3 Efficient, effective social learning, of the kind facilitated by adaptive management, is likely to be of strategic importance in governing ecosystems as humanity searches for a sustainable economy.

  14. Conceptual models for cumulative risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linder, Stephen H; Sexton, Ken

    2011-12-01

    In the absence of scientific consensus on an appropriate theoretical framework, cumulative risk assessment and related research have relied on speculative conceptual models. We argue for the importance of theoretical backing for such models and discuss 3 relevant theoretical frameworks, each supporting a distinctive "family" of models. Social determinant models postulate that unequal health outcomes are caused by structural inequalities; health disparity models envision social and contextual factors acting through individual behaviors and biological mechanisms; and multiple stressor models incorporate environmental agents, emphasizing the intermediary role of these and other stressors. The conclusion is that more careful reliance on established frameworks will lead directly to improvements in characterizing cumulative risk burdens and accounting for disproportionate adverse health effects.

  15. Appraising the plasticity of the circle of Willis: a model of hemodynamic modulation in cerebral arteriovenous malformations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chuang, Yu-Ming; Guo, Wanyuo; Lin, Ching-Po

    2010-01-01

    Cerebral arteriovenous malformations (AVMs) harbor a network of abnormal vasculatures, namely the nidus between arterial and venous components. The pressure gradient between these two components results in abnormal high-velocity arteriovenous shunts flowing through the nidus and alternate intracranial hemodynamics. This study hypothesizes that the flow patterns of the circle of Willis (CoW) are modulated by the alternation of intracranial hemodynamics occurring in cerebral AVMs. The flow patterns of the CoW before and after AVMs had been corrected and the arteriovenous shunts closed by radiosurgery were assessed to validate the hypothesis. Fifty patients (32 men and 18 women; mean age 35.8 +/- 4.2, range 23-52 years) with cerebral AVMs previously treated by radiosurgery were retrospectively investigated. This investigation used magnetic resonance angiography, performed prior to and after AVM surgery, to assess the CoW flow patterns. The CoW flow patterns in nearly half of the subjects (20/50, 40%) altered after the AVMs had been corrected. The alterations included: (1) decreased size or ceased flow patterns in the CoW vascular segment: ipsilateral A1 (n = 1) of the anterior cerebral artery (ACA), ipsilateral posterior communicating artery (PCoA) segment (n = 7), contralateral PCoA collateral (n = 4), bilateral PCoA (n = 2); (2) increased size or opening of the previous 'hypoplastic' segment of CoW: ipsilateral A1 of ACA (n = 1), contralateral PCoA (n = 2), bilateral PCoA (n = 1), and (3) biphasic alteration of the CoW: ceased ipsilateral PCoA segment and opening ipsilateral A1 of the ACA (n = 1), ceased ipsilateral PCoA and opening contralateral P1 of the posterior cerebral artery (n = 1). The plasticity of the flow patterns in the CoW are modulated by intracranial hemodynamics as shown by the AVM model. The calibers of CoW arterial segments are not a static feature. Willisian collateralization with recruitment of the CoW segment may cease, or hypoplastic segments

  16. Fuzzy logic model to quantify risk perception

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bukh, Julia; Dickstein, Phineas

    2008-01-01

    The aim of this study is a quantification of public risk perception towards the nuclear field so as to be considered in decision making whenever the public involvement is sought. The proposed model includes both qualitative factors such as familiarity and voluntariness and numerical factors influencing risk perception, such as probability of occurrence and severity of consequence. Since part of these factors can be characterized only by qualitative expressions and the determination of them are linked with vagueness, imprecision and uncertainty, the most suitable method for the risk level assessment is Fuzzy Logic, which models qualitative aspects of knowledge and reasoning processes without employing precise quantitative analyses. This work, then, offers a Fuzzy-Logic based mean of representing the risk perception by a single numerical feature, which can be weighted and accounted for in decision making procedures. (author)

  17. Lifestyle-based risk model for fall risk assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Sannino, Giovanna; De Falco, Ivanoe; De Pietro, Guiseppe

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The aim of this study was to identify the explicit relationship between life-style and the risk of falling under the form of a mathematical model. Starting from some personal and behavioral information of a subject as, e.g., weight, height, age, data about physical activity habits, and concern about falling, the model would estimate the score of her/his Mini-Balance Evaluation Systems (Mini-BES) test. This score ranges within 0 and 28, and the lower its value the more likely the subj...

  18. Appraisal of emotions in media use

    OpenAIRE

    Bartsch, Anne; Vorderer, Peter; Mangold, Roland; Reinhold, Viehoff

    2008-01-01

    Over the past 20 years, research on meta-emotion and related concepts such as meta-mood and need for affect has become fruitful and prominent across a variety of disciplines, including media psychology. This paper reviews the literature on meta-emotion and considers problems regarding the definition and operationalization of this construct. We propose a process model of meta-emotion and emotion regulation to integrate and extend existing work. Drawing on appraisal theories of emotion, we unde...

  19. Anxiety and burnout in young athletes: The mediating role of cognitive appraisal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomes, A R; Faria, S; Vilela, C

    2017-12-01

    This study tested the relationship between trait anxiety, cognitive appraisal, and athletes' burnout proposing two hypotheses: (a) there is a direct relationship between athletes' trait anxiety and cognitive appraisal and burnout, and (b) cognitive appraisal mediates the relationship between trait anxiety and burnout, and this mediation occurs despite the competitive level and sport records of athletes. The study included 673 young athletes and provided measures of trait anxiety, cognitive appraisal, and burnout. Structural equation modeling indicated that cognitive appraisal mediates the relationship between trait anxiety and burnout, confirming hypothesis 2, and this model provided better fit than the direct model of hypothesis 1. However, the mediation also indicated that the direct relationship between trait anxiety and burnout should be considered. The mediating model was invariant according to competitive levels and sport records. In conclusion, cognitive appraisal is an important variable in explaining athletes' burnout. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. Risk Measurement and Risk Modelling Using Applications of Vine Copulas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David E. Allen

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper features an application of Regular Vine copulas which are a novel and recently developed statistical and mathematical tool which can be applied in the assessment of composite financial risk. Copula-based dependence modelling is a popular tool in financial applications, but is usually applied to pairs of securities. By contrast, Vine copulas provide greater flexibility and permit the modelling of complex dependency patterns using the rich variety of bivariate copulas which may be arranged and analysed in a tree structure to explore multiple dependencies. The paper features the use of Regular Vine copulas in an analysis of the co-dependencies of 10 major European Stock Markets, as represented by individual market indices and the composite STOXX 50 index. The sample runs from 2005 to the end of 2013 to permit an exploration of how correlations change indifferent economic circumstances using three different sample periods: pre-GFC (January 2005–July 2007, GFC (July 2007– September 2009, and post-GFC periods (September 2009–December 2013. The empirical results suggest that the dependencies change in a complex manner, and are subject to change in different economic circumstances. One of the attractions of this approach to risk modelling is the flexibility in the choice of distributions used to model co-dependencies. The practical application of Regular Vine metrics is demonstrated via an example of the calculation of the VaR of a portfolio made up of the indices.

  1. Cognitive appraisals of alcohol use in early adolescence: Psychosocial predictors and reciprocal associations with alcohol use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colder, Craig R; Read, Jennifer P; Wieczorek, William F; Eiden, Rina D; Lengua, Liliana J; Hawk, Larry W; Trucco, Elisa M; Lopez-Vergara, Hector I

    2017-04-01

    Early adolescence is a dynamic period for the development of alcohol appraisals (expected outcomes of drinking and subjective evaluations of expected outcomes), yet the literature provides a limited understanding of psychosocial factors that shape these appraisals during this period. This study took a comprehensive view of alcohol appraisals and considered positive and negative alcohol outcome expectancies, as well as subjective evaluations of expected outcomes. Developmental-ecological theory guided examination of individual, peer, family, and neighborhood predictors of cognitive appraisals of alcohol and use. A community sample of 378 adolescents (mean age 11.5 years at Wave 1, 52% female) was assessed annually for 4 years. Longitudinal path analysis suggested that the most robust predictors of alcohol appraisals were peer norms. Furthermore, perceived likelihood of positive and negative alcohol outcomes prospectively predicted increases in drinking. There was limited support for appraisals operating as mediators of psychosocial risk and protective factors.

  2. A Probabilistic Typhoon Risk Model for Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haseemkunju, A.; Smith, D. F.; Brolley, J. M.

    2017-12-01

    Annually, the coastal Provinces of low-lying Mekong River delta region in the southwest to the Red River Delta region in Northern Vietnam is exposed to severe wind and flood risk from landfalling typhoons. On average, about two to three tropical cyclones with a maximum sustained wind speed of >=34 knots make landfall along the Vietnam coast. Recently, Typhoon Wutip (2013) crossed Central Vietnam as a category 2 typhoon causing significant damage to properties. As tropical cyclone risk is expected to increase with increase in exposure and population growth along the coastal Provinces of Vietnam, insurance/reinsurance, and capital markets need a comprehensive probabilistic model to assess typhoon risk in Vietnam. In 2017, CoreLogic has expanded the geographical coverage of its basin-wide Western North Pacific probabilistic typhoon risk model to estimate the economic and insured losses from landfalling and by-passing tropical cyclones in Vietnam. The updated model is based on 71 years (1945-2015) of typhoon best-track data and 10,000 years of a basin-wide simulated stochastic tracks covering eight countries including Vietnam. The model is capable of estimating damage from wind, storm surge and rainfall flooding using vulnerability models, which relate typhoon hazard to building damageability. The hazard and loss models are validated against past historical typhoons affecting Vietnam. Notable typhoons causing significant damage in Vietnam are Lola (1993), Frankie (1996), Xangsane (2006), and Ketsana (2009). The central and northern coastal provinces of Vietnam are more vulnerable to wind and flood hazard, while typhoon risk in the southern provinces are relatively low.

  3. Risk terrain modeling predicts child maltreatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daley, Dyann; Bachmann, Michael; Bachmann, Brittany A; Pedigo, Christian; Bui, Minh-Thuy; Coffman, Jamye

    2016-12-01

    As indicated by research on the long-term effects of adverse childhood experiences (ACEs), maltreatment has far-reaching consequences for affected children. Effective prevention measures have been elusive, partly due to difficulty in identifying vulnerable children before they are harmed. This study employs Risk Terrain Modeling (RTM), an analysis of the cumulative effect of environmental factors thought to be conducive for child maltreatment, to create a highly accurate prediction model for future substantiated child maltreatment cases in the City of Fort Worth, Texas. The model is superior to commonly used hotspot predictions and more beneficial in aiding prevention efforts in a number of ways: 1) it identifies the highest risk areas for future instances of child maltreatment with improved precision and accuracy; 2) it aids the prioritization of risk-mitigating efforts by informing about the relative importance of the most significant contributing risk factors; 3) since predictions are modeled as a function of easily obtainable data, practitioners do not have to undergo the difficult process of obtaining official child maltreatment data to apply it; 4) the inclusion of a multitude of environmental risk factors creates a more robust model with higher predictive validity; and, 5) the model does not rely on a retrospective examination of past instances of child maltreatment, but adapts predictions to changing environmental conditions. The present study introduces and examines the predictive power of this new tool to aid prevention efforts seeking to improve the safety, health, and wellbeing of vulnerable children. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  4. Risk considerations related to lung modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masse, R.; Cross, F.T.

    1989-01-01

    Improved lung models provide a more accurate assessment of dose from inhalation exposures and, therefore, more accurate dose-response relationships for risk evaluation and exposure limitation. Epidemiological data for externally irradiated persons indicate that the numbers of excess respiratory tract carcinomas differ in the upper airways, bronchi, and distal lung. Neither their histogenesis and anatomical location nor their progenitor cells are known with sufficient accuracy for accurate assessment of the microdosimetry. The nuclei of sensitive cells generally can be assumed to be distributed at random in the epithelium, beneath the mucus and tips of the beating cilia and cells. In stratified epithelia, basal cells may be considered the only cells at risk. Upper-airway tumors have been observed in both therapeutically irradiated patients and in Hiroshima-Nagasaki survivors. The current International Commission on Radiological Protection Lung-Model Task Group proposes that the upper airways and lung have a similar relative risk coefficient for cancer induction. The partition of the risk weighting factor, therefore, will be proportional to the spontaneous death rate from tumors, and 80% of the weighting factor for the respiratory tract should be attributed to the lung. For Weibel lung-model branching generations 0 to 16 and 17 to 23, the Task Group proposes an 80/20 partition of the risk, i.e., 64% and 16%, respectively, of the total risk. Regarding risk in animals, recent data in rats indicate a significantly lower effectiveness for lung-cancer induction at low doses from insoluble long-lived alpha-emitters than from Rn daughters. These findings are due, in part, to the fact that different regions of the lung are irradiated. Tumors in the lymph nodes are rare in people and animals exposed to radiation.44 references

  5. MASS APPRAISAL AND REAL ESTATE TAXATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    VORONIN V. О.

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Raising of problem. The government at the legislative level fixed the definition of market value for tax purposes as mandatory in the implementation of real estate transactions. In order to meet the requirements of objectivity, uniformity and consistency of the results obtained during the evaluation procedures, as well as minimize the influence of subjective factors, there is a need to develop a methodology for evaluating an automated procedure for determining the estimated value of the property based on its market value. To solve this problem, we use special techniques and methods of mass appraisal that incorporates computer-supported statistical analyses, such as multiple regression analysis and adaptive estimation procedure for use in the field of property valuation and property rights. Purpose. Realization of this goal involves the development of the concept of a computer-assisted mass appraisal. The basis of this concept is an adaptive hybrid models of market pricing in different market segments that incorporates software adaptive algorithms for determining the market value by the three evaluation approaches using the results of a multi-level real estate market analysis. It was proposed the utility automated valuation models which is intended for the implementation of a computerized real estate valuation based on the developed software adaptive algorithms. Con-clusion. To achieve this goal have been developed and used concepts underlying of computerized mass appraisal. The basis of this concept is adaptive hybrid pricing models in various segments of the real estate market of Ukraine. The problem is solved by the application of the developed software-based adaptive algorithms for determining the market value of three evaluation approaches using the results of a multi-level analysis of the real estate market. It was pro-posed the model of automated appraisal, according to it was implemented computerization of appraisal procedures on the

  6. Modeling foreign exchange risk premium in Armenia

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Poghosyan, T.; Kočenda, E.; Zemčík, Petr

    2008-01-01

    Roč. 44, č. 1 (2008), s. 41-61 ISSN 1540-496X R&D Projects: GA MŠk LC542 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : foreign exchange risk premium * Armenia * affine term structure models Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.611, year: 2008

  7. Modeling foreign exchange risk premium in Armenia

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Poghosyan, Tigran; Kočenda, Evžen; Zemčík, P.

    2008-01-01

    Roč. 44, č. 1 (2008), s. 41-61 ISSN 1540-496X R&D Projects: GA MŠk LC542 Institutional research plan: CEZ:MSM0021620846 Keywords : foreign exchange risk premium * Armenia * affine term structure models Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.611, year: 2008

  8. Uranium-mill appraisal program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Everett, R.J.; Cain, C.L.

    1982-08-01

    The results of special team appraisals at NRC-licensed uranium mills in the period May to November 1981 are reported. Since the Three Mile Island accident, NRC management has instituted a program of special team appraisals of radiation protection programs at certain NRC-licensed facilities. These appraisals were designed to identify weaknesses and strengths in NRC-licensed programs, including those areas not covered by explicit regulatory requirements. The regulatory requirements related to occupational radiation protection and environmental monitoring at uranium mills have been extensively upgraded in the past few years. In addition, there was some NRC staff concern with respect to the effectiveness of NRC licensing and inspection programs. In response to this concern and to changes in mill requirements, the NRC staff recommended that team appraisals be conducted at mills to determine the adequacy of mill programs, the effectiveness of the new requirements, and mill management implementation of programs and requirements. This report describes the appraisal scope and methodology as well as summary findings and conclusions. Significant weaknesses identified during the mill appraisals are discussed as well as recommendations for improvements in uranium mill programs and mill licensing and inspection

  9. A Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathias, Donovan L.; Wheeler, Lorien F.; Dotson, Jessie L.

    2016-01-01

    Asteroid threat assessment requires the quantification of both the impact likelihood and resulting consequence across the range of possible events. This paper presents a probabilistic asteroid impact risk (PAIR) assessment model developed for this purpose. The model incorporates published impact frequency rates with state-of-the-art consequence assessment tools, applied within a Monte Carlo framework that generates sets of impact scenarios from uncertain parameter distributions. Explicit treatment of atmospheric entry is included to produce energy deposition rates that account for the effects of thermal ablation and object fragmentation. These energy deposition rates are used to model the resulting ground damage, and affected populations are computed for the sampled impact locations. The results for each scenario are aggregated into a distribution of potential outcomes that reflect the range of uncertain impact parameters, population densities, and strike probabilities. As an illustration of the utility of the PAIR model, the results are used to address the question of what minimum size asteroid constitutes a threat to the population. To answer this question, complete distributions of results are combined with a hypothetical risk tolerance posture to provide the minimum size, given sets of initial assumptions. Model outputs demonstrate how such questions can be answered and provide a means for interpreting the effect that input assumptions and uncertainty can have on final risk-based decisions. Model results can be used to prioritize investments to gain knowledge in critical areas or, conversely, to identify areas where additional data has little effect on the metrics of interest.

  10. Issues in Value-at-Risk Modeling and Evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J. Daníelsson (Jón); C.G. de Vries (Casper); B.N. Jorgensen (Bjørn); P.F. Christoffersen (Peter); F.X. Diebold (Francis); T. Schuermann (Til); J.A. Lopez (Jose); B. Hirtle (Beverly)

    1998-01-01

    textabstractDiscusses the issues in value-at-risk modeling and evaluation. Value of value at risk; Horizon problems and extreme events in financial risk management; Methods of evaluating value-at-risk estimates.

  11. Modeling inputs to computer models used in risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iman, R.L.

    1987-01-01

    Computer models for various risk assessment applications are closely scrutinized both from the standpoint of questioning the correctness of the underlying mathematical model with respect to the process it is attempting to model and from the standpoint of verifying that the computer model correctly implements the underlying mathematical model. A process that receives less scrutiny, but is nonetheless of equal importance, concerns the individual and joint modeling of the inputs. This modeling effort clearly has a great impact on the credibility of results. Model characteristics are reviewed in this paper that have a direct bearing on the model input process and reasons are given for using probabilities-based modeling with the inputs. The authors also present ways to model distributions for individual inputs and multivariate input structures when dependence and other constraints may be present

  12. Model based risk assessment - the CORAS framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gran, Bjoern Axel; Fredriksen, Rune; Thunem, Atoosa P-J.

    2004-04-15

    Traditional risk analysis and assessment is based on failure-oriented models of the system. In contrast to this, model-based risk assessment (MBRA) utilizes success-oriented models describing all intended system aspects, including functional, operational and organizational aspects of the target. The target models are then used as input sources for complementary risk analysis and assessment techniques, as well as a basis for the documentation of the assessment results. The EU-funded CORAS project developed a tool-supported methodology for the application of MBRA in security-critical systems. The methodology has been tested with successful outcome through a series of seven trial within the telemedicine and ecommerce areas. The CORAS project in general and the CORAS application of MBRA in particular have contributed positively to the visibility of model-based risk assessment and thus to the disclosure of several potentials for further exploitation of various aspects within this important research field. In that connection, the CORAS methodology's possibilities for further improvement towards utilization in more complex architectures and also in other application domains such as the nuclear field can be addressed. The latter calls for adapting the framework to address nuclear standards such as IEC 60880 and IEC 61513. For this development we recommend applying a trial driven approach within the nuclear field. The tool supported approach for combining risk analysis and system development also fits well with the HRP proposal for developing an Integrated Design Environment (IDE) providing efficient methods and tools to support control room systems design. (Author)

  13. Mechanistic modeling for mammography screening risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bijwaard, Harmen

    2008-01-01

    Full text: Western populations show a very high incidence of breast cancer and in many countries mammography screening programs have been set up for the early detection of these cancers. Through these programs large numbers of women (in the Netherlands, 700.000 per year) are exposed to low but not insignificant X-ray doses. ICRP based risk estimates indicate that the number of breast cancer casualties due to mammography screening can be as high as 50 in the Netherlands per year. The number of lives saved is estimated to be much higher, but for an accurate calculation of the benefits of screening a better estimate of these risks is indispensable. Here it is attempted to better quantify the radiological risks of mammography screening through the application of a biologically based model for breast tumor induction by X-rays. The model is applied to data obtained from the National Institutes of Health in the U.S. These concern epidemiological data of female TB patients who received high X-ray breast doses in the period 1930-1950 through frequent fluoroscopy of their lungs. The mechanistic model that is used to describe the increased breast cancer incidence is based on an earlier study by Moolgavkar et al. (1980), in which the natural background incidence of breast cancer was modeled. The model allows for a more sophisticated extrapolation of risks to the low dose X-ray exposures that are common in mammography screening and to the higher ages that are usually involved. Furthermore, it allows for risk transfer to other (non-western) populations. The results have implications for decisions on the frequency of screening, the number of mammograms taken at each screening, minimum and maximum ages for screening and the transfer to digital equipment. (author)

  14. Risk analysis: divergent models and convergent interpretations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carnes, B. A.; Gavrilova, N.

    2001-01-01

    Material presented at a NASA-sponsored workshop on risk models for exposure conditions relevant to prolonged space flight are described in this paper. Analyses used mortality data from experiments conducted at Argonne National Laboratory on the long-term effects of external whole-body irradiation on B6CF1 mice by 60Co gamma rays and fission neutrons delivered as a single exposure or protracted over either 24 or 60 once-weekly exposures. The maximum dose considered was restricted to 1 Gy for neutrons and 10 Gy for gamma rays. Proportional hazard models were used to investigate the shape of the dose response at these lower doses for deaths caused by solid-tissue tumors and tumors of either connective or epithelial tissue origin. For protracted exposures, a significant mortality effect was detected at a neutron dose of 14 cGy and a gamma-ray dose of 3 Gy. For single exposures, radiation-induced mortality for neutrons also occurred within the range of 10-20 cGy, but dropped to 86 cGy for gamma rays. Plots of risk relative to control estimated for each observed dose gave a visual impression of nonlinearity for both neutrons and gamma rays. At least for solid-tissue tumors, male and female mortality was nearly identical for gamma-ray exposures, but mortality risks for females were higher than for males for neutron exposures. As expected, protracting the gamma-ray dose reduced mortality risks. Although curvature consistent with that observed visually could be detected by a model parameterized to detect curvature, a relative risk term containing only a simple term for total dose was usually sufficient to describe the dose response. Although detectable mortality for the three pathology end points considered typically occurred at the same level of dose, the highest risks were almost always associated with deaths caused by tumors of epithelial tissue origin.

  15. Risk management model in road transport systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakhapov, R. L.; Nikolaeva, R. V.; Gatiyatullin, M. H.; Makhmutov, M. M.

    2016-08-01

    The article presents the results of a study of road safety indicators that influence the development and operation of the transport system. Road safety is considered as a continuous process of risk management. Authors constructed a model that relates the social risks of a major road safety indicator - the level of motorization. The model gives a fairly accurate assessment of the level of social risk for any given level of motorization. Authors calculated the dependence of the level of socio-economic costs of accidents and injured people in them. The applicability of the concept of socio-economic damage is caused by the presence of a linear relationship between the natural and economic indicators damage from accidents. The optimization of social risk is reduced to finding the extremum of the objective function that characterizes the economic effect of the implementation of measures to improve safety. The calculations make it possible to maximize the net present value, depending on the costs of improving road safety, taking into account socio-economic damage caused by accidents. The proposed econometric models make it possible to quantify the efficiency of the transportation system, allow to simulate the change in road safety indicators.

  16. [Study on the infectious risk model of AIDS among men who have sex with men in Guangzhou].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Pei; Zhong, Fei; Cheng, Wei-Bin; Xu, Hui-Fang; Ling, Li

    2012-07-01

    To develop a human immune deficiency virus (HIV) infection risk appraisal model suitable for men who has sex with men (MSM) in Guangzhou, and to provide tools for follow-up the outcomes on health education and behavior intervention. A cros-sectional study was conducted in Guangzhou from 2008 to 2010. Based on the HIV surveillance data, the main risk factors of HIV infection among MSM were screened by means of logistic regression. Degree on relative risk was transformed into risk scores by adopting the statistics models. Individual risk scores, group risk scores and individual infection risk in comparison with usual MSM groups could then be calculated according to the rate of exposure on those risk factors appeared in data from the surveillance programs. Risk factors related to HIV infection among MSM and the quantitative assessment standard (risk scores and risk scores table of population groups) for those factors were set up by multiple logistic regression, including age, location of registered residence, monthly income, major location for finding their sexual partners, HIV testing in the past year, age when having the first sexual intercourse, rate of condom use in the past six months, symptoms related to sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) and syphilis in particular. The average risk score of population was 6.06, with risk scores for HIV positive and negative as 3.10 and 18.08 respectively (P risk model could be used to quantify and classify the individual's infectious status and related factors among MSM more directly and effectively, so as to help the individuals to identify their high-risk behaviors as well as lifestyles. We felt that it could also serve as an important tool used for personalized HIV health education and behavior intervention programs.

  17. The effects of conscientiousness on the appraisals of daily stressors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gartland, Nicola; O'Connor, Daryl B; Lawton, Rebecca

    2012-02-01

    Conscientiousness (C) is positively associated with health and longevity although the mechanisms underlying this relationship are not fully understood. Stress may play a role in explaining the C-longevity relationship. This study investigated whether C predicted the cognitive appraisals of daily stressors/hassles. Participants (N=102) completed measures of C and cognitive appraisal in relation to the most stressful hassle they had experienced in the last 7 days. Correlational analysis revealed that Total C, Order and Industriousness were positively correlated with primary appraisals, and Responsibility was positively correlated with secondary appraisals. The facets of C were then entered into hierarchical regression models, controlling for age and gender. This demonstrated that Order (β=0.27, paccounting for 15.8% of the variance. Responsibility significantly predicted secondary appraisals (β=0.44, paccounting for 16.3% of the variance. These findings indicate that higher Order and Industriousness are related to having a greater stake in daily stressors, whereas higher Responsibility is related to greater confidence in one's ability to deal with daily stressors. These results are the first demonstration that C is related to the appraisals of daily hassles and suggest that C may moderate the experience of stress in daily life. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  18. The dynamic interplay between appraisal and core affect in daily life

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter eKuppens

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Appraisals and core affect are both considered central to the experience of emotion. In this study we examine the bidirectional relationships between these two components of emotional experience by examining how core affect changes following how people appraise events and how appraisals in turn change following how they feel in daily life. In an experience sampling study, participants recorded their core affect and appraisals of ongoing events; data were analyzed using cross-lagged multilevel modeling. Valence-appraisal relationships were found to be characterized by congruency: The same appraisals that were associated with a change in pleasure-displeasure (motivational congruency, other-agency, coping potential, and future expectancy, changed themselves as a function of pleasure-displeasure. In turn, mainly secondary appraisals of who is responsible and how one is able to cope with events were associated with changes in arousal, which itself is followed by changes in the future appraised relevance of events. These results integrate core affect and appraisal approaches to emotion by demonstrating the dynamic interplay of how appraisals are followed by changes in core affect which in turn change our basis for judging future events.

  19. Construction of Site Risk Model using Individual Unit Risk Model in a NPP Site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lim, Ho Gon; Han, Sang Hoon [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    Since Fukushima accident, strong needs to estimate site risk has been increased to identify the possibility of re-occurrence of such a tremendous disaster and prevent such a disaster. Especially, in a site which has large fleet of nuclear power plants, reliable site risk assessment is very emergent to confirm the safety. In Korea, there are several nuclear power plant site which have more than 6 NPPs. In general, risk model of a NPP in terms of PSA is very complicated and furthermore, it is expected that the site risk model is more complex than that. In this paper, the method for constructing site risk model is proposed by using individual unit risk model. Procedure for the development of site damage (risk) model was proposed in the present paper. Since the site damage model is complicated in the sense of the scale of the system and dependency of the components of the system, conventional method may not be applicable in many side of the problem.

  20. Value at Risk models for Energy Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Novák, Martin

    2010-01-01

    The main focus of this thesis lies on description of Risk Management in context of Energy Trading. The paper will predominantly discuss Value at Risk and its modifications as a main overall indicator of Energy Risk.

  1. Crop insurance: Risks and models of insurance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Čolović Vladimir

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The issue of crop protection is very important because of a variety of risks that could cause difficult consequences. One type of risk protection is insurance. The author in the paper states various models of insurance in some EU countries and the systems of subsidizing of insurance premiums by state. The author also gives a picture of crop insurance in the U.S., noting that in this country pays great attention to this matter. As for crop insurance in Serbia, it is not at a high level. The main problem with crop insurance is not only the risks but also the way of protection through insurance. The basic question that arises not only in the EU is the question is who will insure and protect crops. There are three possibilities: insurance companies under state control, insurance companies that are public-private partnerships or private insurance companies on a purely commercial basis.

  2. Improvement of the projection models for radiogenic cancer risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tong Jian

    2005-01-01

    Calculations of radiogenic cancer risk are based on the risk projection models for specific cancer sites. Improvement has been made for the parameters used in the previous models including introductions of mortality and morbidity risk coefficients, and age-/ gender-specific risk coefficients. These coefficients have been applied to calculate the radiogenic cancer risks for specific organs and radionuclides under different exposure scenarios. (authors)

  3. HOW APPRAISERS DEVELOP FAIR VALUE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MIROSLAV ŠKODA

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Management is responsible for its own financial decisions. If we take into account, that fair value concept was shown in financial crisis as something that does not work anymore in this way; there is a big need to develop it for the future. Non-professional readers of financial statements believe, however, that company financials are the work of the public accounting firm that had signed the audit certificate. The main reason for bringing this point up is that when companies disclose Fair Value (FV information in their financial statements, they are taking responsibility for the values disclosed. Management may often be encouraged to utilize the services of an outside professional, but at the end of the day, the outside appraiser is a hired gun. Although the appraiser has to take responsibility for his own work, hiring the appraiser does not absolve management of its ultimate responsibility. The obverse of this is also true. Management does not have to hire the appraiser to develop any fair value disclosures made in the financial statements. Developing FV information is not recommended as a do-it yourself undertaking, there is nothing in Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP or Securities Exchange Commission (SEC regulations, however, that requires an outside appraiser.

  4. Human Plague Risk: Spatial-Temporal Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinzon, Jorge E.

    2010-01-01

    This chpater reviews the use of spatial-temporal models in identifying potential risks of plague outbreaks into the human population. Using earth observations by satellites remote sensing there has been a systematic analysis and mapping of the close coupling between the vectors of the disease and climate variability. The overall result is that incidence of plague is correlated to positive El Nino/Southem Oscillation (ENSO).

  5. Guidance for implementing an environmental, safety, and health assurance program. Volume 10. Model guidlines for line organization environmental, safety and health audits and appraisals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ellingson, A.C.

    1981-10-01

    This is 1 of 15 documents designed to illustrate how an Environmental, Safety and Health (ES and H) Assurance Program may be implemented. The generic definition of ES and H Assurance Programs is given in a companion document entitled An Environmental, Safety and Health Assurance Program Standard. The Standard specifies that the operational level of an institution must have an internal assurance function, and this document provides guidance for the audit/appraisal portion of the operational level's ES and H program. The appendixes include an ES and H audit checklist, a sample element rating guide, and a sample audit plan for working level line organization internal audits

  6. Appraisal of the Performance of Contingency Cost Provision for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The paper appraised performance of contingency allowance in addressing projects' cost risk. To achieve this aim, impact of contingency provision in some selected building projects were evaluated. Data for the study was collected by means of checklist from 40 completed projects' files. Furthermore, 100 questionnaires on ...

  7. Uranium from Africa - An overview on past and current mining activities: Re-appraising associated risks and chances in a global context

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winde, Frank; Brugge, Doug; Nidecker, Andreas; Ruegg, Urs

    2017-05-01

    In 2003, nuclear power received renewed interest as a perceived climate-neutral way to meet high energy demands of large industrialized countries, such as China, India, Russia and the USA. It triggered a growing demand for uranium (U) as nuclear fuel. Dubbed the 'nuclear renaissance', the U-price rose over tenfold before the global credit crisis dampend the rush. Many efforts to capitalise on the renewed demand focused on Africa. This paper provides an overview on the type and extent of uranium mining, production and exploration on the African continent and discusses the economic benefits as well as the potential environmental and health risks and the long-term needs for remediation of legacy sites. The actual historical results of uranium mining activities in more than thirty African countries provide data against which to assess the existing risks of uranium development. The already existing uraniferous waste in several African countries threatens scarce water resources and the health of adjacent residents. Responsibility should rest with the governments and the companies to ensure that these threats are not realized.

  8. Model of Axiological Dimension Risk Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kulińska Ewa

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available It was on the basis of the obtained results that identify the key prerequisites for the integration of the management of logistics processes, management of the value creation process, and risk management that the methodological basis for the construction of the axiological dimension of the risk management (ADRM model of logistics processes was determined. By taking into account the contribution of individual concepts to the new research area, its essence was defined as an integrated, structured instrumentation aimed at the identification and implementation of logistics processes supporting creation of the value added as well as the identification and elimination of risk factors disturbing the process of the value creation for internal and external customers. The base for the ADRM concept of logistics processes is the use of the potential being inherent in synergistic effects which are obtained by using prerequisites for the integration of the management of logistics processes, of value creation and risk management as the key determinants of the value creation.

  9. Modelling and Simulating of Risk Behaviours in Virtual Environments Based on Multi-Agent and Fuzzy Logic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linqin Cai

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Due to safety and ethical issues, traditional experimental approaches to modelling underground risk behaviours can be costly, dangerous and even impossible to realize. Based on multi-agent technology, a virtual coalmine platform for risk behaviour simulation is presented to model and simulate the human-machine-environment related risk factors in underground coalmines. To reveal mine workers' risk behaviours, a fuzzy emotional behaviour model is proposed to simulate underground miners' responding behaviours to potential hazardous events based on cognitive appraisal theories and fuzzy logic techniques. The proposed emotion model can generate more believable behaviours for virtual miners according to personalized emotion states, internal motivation needs and behaviour selection thresholds. Finally, typical accident cases of underground hazard spotting and locomotive transport were implemented. The behaviour believability of virtual miners was evaluated with a user assessment method. Experimental results show that the proposed models can create more realistic and reasonable behaviours in virtual coalmine environments, which can improve miners' risk awareness and further train miners' emergent decision-making ability when facing unexpected underground situations.

  10. Electricity market pricing, risk hedging and modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Xu

    In this dissertation, we investigate the pricing, price risk hedging/arbitrage, and simplified system modeling for a centralized LMP-based electricity market. In an LMP-based market model, the full AC power flow model and the DC power flow model are most widely used to represent the transmission system. We investigate the differences of dispatching results, congestion pattern, and LMPs for the two power flow models. An appropriate LMP decomposition scheme to quantify the marginal costs of the congestion and real power losses is critical for the implementation of financial risk hedging markets. However, the traditional LMP decomposition heavily depends on the slack bus selection. In this dissertation we propose a slack-independent scheme to break LMP down into energy, congestion, and marginal loss components by analyzing the actual marginal cost of each bus at the optimal solution point. The physical and economic meanings of the marginal effect at each bus provide accurate price information for both congestion and losses, and thus the slack-dependency of the traditional scheme is eliminated. With electricity priced at the margin instead of the average value, the market operator typically collects more revenue from power sellers than that paid to power buyers. According to the LMP decomposition results, the revenue surplus is then divided into two parts: congestion charge surplus and marginal loss revenue surplus. We apply the LMP decomposition results to the financial tools, such as financial transmission right (FTR) and loss hedging right (LHR), which have been introduced to hedge against price risks associated to congestion and losses, to construct a full price risk hedging portfolio. The two-settlement market structure and the introduction of financial tools inevitably create market manipulation opportunities. We investigate several possible market manipulation behaviors by virtual bidding and propose a market monitor approach to identify and quantify such

  11. Appraisal of the Fischer-DiPasquale-Wheaton (FDW real estate model and development of an integrated property and asset market model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H Du Toit

    2004-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides a concise overview of the development of an integrated property and asset market model (IPAMM for South African property markets, utilising the Pretoria office market as case study. The IPAMM simulates the interrelationships between property and asset markets in a diagrammatic quadrant model configuration. The Fischer-DiPasquale-Wheaton (FDW real estate model, arguably the most advanced diagrammatic quadrant real estate model available at present, served as basis for the development of IPAMM. IPAMM is essentially a regression model based on a system of stochastic equations that captures the interrelationships between property and asset markets. The model advances beyond mere conceptualisation of these relationships to a quantified interpretation and application of the theoretical premises that represent the micro-foundations of economic behaviour in property and asset markets.

  12. Regional scale ecological risk assessment: using the relative risk model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Landis, Wayne G

    2005-01-01

    ...) in the performance of regional-scale ecological risk assessments. The initial chapters present the methodology and the critical nature of the interaction between risk assessors and decision makers...

  13. Evidence from epidemic appraisals in Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Idoteyin O. Ezirim

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Although HIV prevalence has increased in most-at-risk populations (MARPs across Nigeria, effective programming was difficult because Nigeria lacked information for prevention programmes to target interventions that maximise coverage and cost effectiveness. Epidemic appraisals (EA were conducted in eight states to provide evidence for the planning, implementation and co-ordination of prevention interventions. Component 1: Mapping determined the size, typology and locations of MARPs. Component 2: Venue profiling identified and profiled venues where general populations engaged in high-risk behaviours. Component 3: Rural appraisals provided insights into risk behaviours and sexual networking in villages. States used mapping results to prioritise areas with a MARP coverage of 70% – 80% and then scale up interventions for non-brothel-based female sex workers (FSWs instead of focusing on brothel-based FSWs. The eight states prioritisedf unding for the high-coverage areas to ensure a minimum coverage level of 70% – 80% of MARPs was reached. The refocused resources led to cost efficiencies. Applying venue profiling results, six states implemented interventions at bars and night clubs – previously not covered. States also maximised intervention coverage for high-risk general populations; this led to the use of resources for general population interventions in a focused way rather than across an entire state. States focused on condom programmes in rural areas. EA results provided the evidence for focusing interventions for high MARP coverage as well as forhigh-risk general populations. The states applied the results and rapidly refocused their interventions, increasing the likelihood of having an impact on HIV transmission in those states. Nigeria is now implementing EAs in the remaining 29 states to effect national-level impact.

  14. 9 CFR 50.9 - Appraisals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... part must be appraised at their fair market value by an appraiser selected by APHIS. APHIS may decline... veterinarian in charge may grant a reasonable time for the presentation of their registration papers. [67 FR...

  15. 12 CFR 564.3 - Appraisals required; transactions requiring a State certified or licensed appraiser.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 5 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Appraisals required; transactions requiring a State certified or licensed appraiser. 564.3 Section 564.3 Banks and Banking OFFICE OF THRIFT SUPERVISION, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY APPRAISALS § 564.3 Appraisals required; transactions requiring a State...

  16. NGNP Risk Management Database: A Model for Managing Risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Collins, John

    2009-01-01

    To facilitate the implementation of the Risk Management Plan, the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) Project has developed and employed an analytical software tool called the NGNP Risk Management System (RMS). A relational database developed in Microsoft(reg s ign) Access, the RMS provides conventional database utility including data maintenance, archiving, configuration control, and query ability. Additionally, the tool's design provides a number of unique capabilities specifically designed to facilitate the development and execution of activities outlined in the Risk Management Plan. Specifically, the RMS provides the capability to establish the risk baseline, document and analyze the risk reduction plan, track the current risk reduction status, organize risks by reference configuration system, subsystem, and component (SSC) and Area, and increase the level of NGNP decision making.

  17. NGNP Risk Management Database: A Model for Managing Risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    John Collins

    2009-09-01

    To facilitate the implementation of the Risk Management Plan, the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) Project has developed and employed an analytical software tool called the NGNP Risk Management System (RMS). A relational database developed in Microsoft® Access, the RMS provides conventional database utility including data maintenance, archiving, configuration control, and query ability. Additionally, the tool’s design provides a number of unique capabilities specifically designed to facilitate the development and execution of activities outlined in the Risk Management Plan. Specifically, the RMS provides the capability to establish the risk baseline, document and analyze the risk reduction plan, track the current risk reduction status, organize risks by reference configuration system, subsystem, and component (SSC) and Area, and increase the level of NGNP decision making.

  18. Investment appraisal of technology innovations on dairy farm electricity consumption

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Upton, J.; Murphy, M.; Boer, de I.J.M.; Groot Koerkamp, P.W.G.; Berentsen, P.B.M.; Shalloo, L.

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this study was to conduct an investment appraisal for milk-cooling, water-heating, and milk-harvesting technologies on a range of farm sizes in 2 different electricity-pricing environments. This was achieved by using a model for electricity consumption on dairy farms. The model simulated

  19. Appraisal of family doctors: an evaluation study.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lewis, M.I.; Elwyn, G.; Wood, F.

    2003-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Appraisal has evolved to become a key component of workforce management. However, it is not clear from existing proposals for appraisal of doctors whether employers, health authorities or primary care organisations should take responsibility for appraisal processes. AIMS: To evaluate the

  20. 7 CFR 4279.144 - Appraisals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... value of the collateral. All real property appraisals associated with Agency guaranteed loanmaking and... appraise the property in question. All appraisals will include consideration of the potential effects from... value of the collateral. For additional guidance and information concerning the completion of real...

  1. Examining the relationships between challenge and threat cognitive appraisals and coaching behaviours in football coaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dixon, Martin; Turner, Martin J; Gillman, Jamie

    2017-12-01

    Previous research demonstrates that sports coaching is a stressful activity. This article investigates coaches' challenge and threat cognitive appraisals of stressful situations and their impact on coaching behaviour, using Blascovich and Mendes' (2000) biopsychosocial model as a theoretical framework. A cross-sectional correlational design was utilised to examine the relationships between irrational beliefs (Shortened general attitude and belief scale), challenge and threat appraisals (Appraisal of life events scale), and coaching behaviours (Leadership scale for sports) of 105 professional football academy coaches. Findings reveal significant positive associations between challenge appraisals and social support, and between threat appraisals and autocratic behaviour, and a significant negative association between threat appraisals and positive feedback. Results also show that higher irrational beliefs are associated with greater threat, and lesser challenge cognitive appraisals. However, no associations were revealed between irrational beliefs and challenge cognitive appraisals. Additionally, findings demonstrate a positive relationship between age and training and instruction. Results suggest that practitioners should help coaches to appraise stressful situations as a challenge to promote positive coaching behaviours.

  2. Insights into Flood-Coping Appraisals of Protection Motivation Theory: Empirical Evidence from Germany and France.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bubeck, Philip; Wouter Botzen, W J; Laudan, Jonas; Aerts, Jeroen C J H; Thieken, Annegret H

    2017-11-17

    Protection motivation theory (PMT) has become a popular theory to explain the risk-reducing behavior of residents against natural hazards. PMT captures the two main cognitive processes that individuals undergo when faced with a threat, namely, threat appraisal and coping appraisal. The latter describes the evaluation of possible response measures that may reduce or avert the perceived threat. Although the coping appraisal component of PMT was found to be a better predictor of protective intentions and behavior, little is known about the factors that influence individuals' coping appraisals of natural hazards. More insight into flood-coping appraisals of PMT, therefore, are needed to better understand the decision-making process of individuals and to develop effective risk communication strategies. This study presents the results of two surveys among more than 1,600 flood-prone households in Germany and France. Five hypotheses were tested using multivariate statistics regarding factors related to flood-coping appraisals, which were derived from the PMT framework, related literature, and the literature on social vulnerability. We found that socioeconomic characteristics alone are not sufficient to explain flood-coping appraisals. Particularly, observational learning from the social environment, such as friends and neighbors, is positively related to flood-coping appraisals. This suggests that social norms and networks play an important role in flood-preparedness decisions. Providing risk and coping information can also have a positive effect. Given the strong positive influence of the social environment on flood-coping appraisals, future research should investigate how risk communication can be enhanced by making use of the observed social norms and network effects. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  3. Appraisal Psychology, Neurobiology, and Language.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schumann, John H.

    2001-01-01

    Proposes that the confluence of stimulus appraisal and social cognition that is effected by the neural system in the brain has important implications for language and learning theories. Describes the anatomy and functions of this neural system and discusses how it may operate in motivation for second language acquisition and how in conjunction…

  4. Integrated source-risk model for radon: A definition study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laheij, G.M.H.; Aldenkamp, F.J.; Stoop, P.

    1993-10-01

    The purpose of a source-risk model is to support policy making on radon mitigation by comparing effects of various policy options and to enable optimization of counter measures applied to different parts of the source-risk chain. There are several advantages developing and using a source-risk model: risk calculations are standardized; the effects of measures applied to different parts of the source-risk chain can be better compared because interactions are included; and sensitivity analyses can be used to determine the most important parameters within the total source-risk chain. After an inventory of processes and sources to be included in the source-risk chain, the models presently available in the Netherlands are investigated. The models were screened for completeness, validation and operational status. The investigation made clear that, by choosing for each part of the source-risk chain the most convenient model, a source-risk chain model for radon may be realized. However, the calculation of dose out of the radon concentrations and the status of the validation of most models should be improved. Calculations with the proposed source-risk model will give estimations with a large uncertainty at the moment. For further development of the source-risk model an interaction between the source-risk model and experimental research is recommended. Organisational forms of the source-risk model are discussed. A source-risk model in which only simple models are included is also recommended. The other models are operated and administrated by the model owners. The model owners execute their models for a combination of input parameters. The output of the models is stored in a database which will be used for calculations with the source-risk model. 5 figs., 15 tabs., 7 appendices, 14 refs

  5. Attributions to Discrimination and Self-Esteem: The Role of Group Identification and Appraisals

    OpenAIRE

    Eccleston , Collette P.; Major , Brenda N.

    2006-01-01

    Abstract This study tested the hypothesis that appraisals of discrimination (i.e. its perceived severity, global aspects, stability, and uncontrollability) mediate the relationship between attributions to discrimination and personal self-esteem. It also tested three models of how ethnic group identification is related to discrimination attributions, discrimination appraisals, and personal self-esteem. In ...

  6. Automating risk analysis of software design models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frydman, Maxime; Ruiz, Guifré; Heymann, Elisa; César, Eduardo; Miller, Barton P

    2014-01-01

    The growth of the internet and networked systems has exposed software to an increased amount of security threats. One of the responses from software developers to these threats is the introduction of security activities in the software development lifecycle. This paper describes an approach to reduce the need for costly human expertise to perform risk analysis in software, which is common in secure development methodologies, by automating threat modeling. Reducing the dependency on security experts aims at reducing the cost of secure development by allowing non-security-aware developers to apply secure development with little to no additional cost, making secure development more accessible. To automate threat modeling two data structures are introduced, identification trees and mitigation trees, to identify threats in software designs and advise mitigation techniques, while taking into account specification requirements and cost concerns. These are the components of our model for automated threat modeling, AutSEC. We validated AutSEC by implementing it in a tool based on data flow diagrams, from the Microsoft security development methodology, and applying it to VOMS, a grid middleware component, to evaluate our model's performance.

  7. Analysis of appraisal tool of system security engineering capability maturity based on component

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Zhenghai; Yang Xiaohua; Zou Shuliang; Liu Yachun; Xiao Jiantian; Liu Zhiming

    2012-01-01

    Spent Fuel Reprocessing is a part of nuclear fuel cycle and is the inevitably choice of nuclear power sustainable development. Reprocessing needs to face with radiological, criticality, chemical hazards. Besides using the tradition appraisal methods based on the security goals, it is a beneficial supplement that using the appraisal method of system security engineering capability maturity model based on the process. Experts should check and approve large numbers of documents during the appraisal based on system security engineering capability maturity model, so it is necessary that developing a tool to assist the expert to complete the appraisal. The method of developing software based on component is highly effective, nimble and reliable. Component technology is analyzed, the methods of extraction model domain components and general components is introduced, and the appraisal system is developed based on component technology. (authors)

  8. A Risk Assessment Model for Water Resources: releases of dangerous and hazardous substances.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rebelo, Anabela; Ferra, Isabel; Gonçalves, Isolina; Marques, Albertina M

    2014-07-01

    Many dangerous and hazardous substances are used, transported and handled daily in diverse situations, from domestic use to industrial processing, and during those operations, spills or other anomalous situations may occur that can lead to contaminant releases followed by contamination of surface water or groundwater through direct or indirect pathways. When dealing with this problem, rapid, technically sound decisions are desirable, and the use of complex methods may not be able to deliver information quickly. This work describes a simple conceptual model established on multi-criteria based analysis involving a strategic appraisal for contamination risk assessment to support local authorities on rapid technical decisions. The model involves a screening for environmental risk sources, focussing on persistent, bioaccumulative and toxic (PBT) substances that may be discharged into water resources. It is a simple tool that can be used to follow-up actual accident scenarios in real time and to support daily activities, such as site-inspections. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Affecting others: social appraisal and emotion contagion in everyday decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parkinson, Brian; Simons, Gwenda

    2009-08-01

    In a diary study of interpersonal affect transfer, 41 participants reported on decisions involving other people over 3 weeks. Reported anxiety and excitement were reliably related to the perceived anxiety and excitement of another person who was present during decision making. Risk and importance appraisals partially mediated effects of other's anxiety on own anxiety as predicted by social appraisal theory. However, other's emotion remained a significant independent predictor of own emotion after controlling for appraisals, supporting the additional impact of more direct forms of affect transfer such as emotion contagion. Significant affect-transfer effects remained even after controlling for participants' perceptions of the other's emotion in addition to all measured appraisals, confirming that affect transfer does not require explicit registration of someone else's feelings. This research provides some of the clearest evidence for the operation of both social appraisal and automatic affect transfer in everyday social life.

  10. Nuclear power investment risk economic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Houghton, W.J.; Postula, F.D.

    1985-12-01

    This paper describes an economic model which was developed to evaluate the net costs incurred by a utility due to an accident induced outage at a nuclear power plant. During such an outage the portion of the plant operating costs associated with power production are saved; however, the owning utility faces a sizable expense as fossil fuels are burned as a substitute for the incapacitated nuclear power. Additional expenses are incurred by the utility for plant repair and if necessary, decontamination costs. The model makes provision for mitigating these costs by sales of power, property damage insurance payments, tax write-offs and increased rates. Over 60 economic variables contribute to the net cost uncertainty. The values of these variables are treated as uncertainty distributions and are used in a Monte carlo computer program to evaluate the cost uncertainty (investment risk) associated with damage which could occur from various categories of initiating accidents. As an example, results of computations for various levels of damage associated with a loss of coolant accident are shown as a range of consequential plant downtime and unrecovered cost. A typical investment risk profile is shown for these types of accidents. Cost/revenue values for each economic factor are presented for a Three Mile Island - II type accident, e.g., uncontrolled core heatup. 4 refs., 6 figs., 3 tabs

  11. Model-based mitigation of availability risks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zambon, E.; Bolzoni, D.; Etalle, S.; Salvato, M.

    2007-01-01

    The assessment and mitigation of risks related to the availability of the IT infrastructure is becoming increasingly important in modern organizations. Unfortunately, present standards for risk assessment and mitigation show limitations when evaluating and mitigating availability risks. This is due

  12. Model-Based Mitigation of Availability Risks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zambon, Emmanuele; Bolzoni, D.; Etalle, Sandro; Salvato, Marco

    2007-01-01

    The assessment and mitigation of risks related to the availability of the IT infrastructure is becoming increasingly important in modern organizations. Unfortunately, present standards for Risk Assessment and Mitigation show limitations when evaluating and mitigating availability risks. This is due

  13. Artificial Neural Networks and the Mass Appraisal of Real Estate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gang Zhou

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available With the rapid development of computer, artificial intelligence and big data technology, artificial neural networks have become one of the most powerful machine learning algorithms. In the practice, most of the applications of artificial neural networks use back propagation neural network and its variation. Besides the back propagation neural network, various neural networks have been developing in order to improve the performance of standard models. Though neural networks are well known method in the research of real estate, there is enormous space for future research in order to enhance their function. Some scholars combine genetic algorithm, geospatial information, support vector machine model, particle swarm optimization with artificial neural networks to appraise the real estate, which is helpful for the existing appraisal technology. The mass appraisal of real estate in this paper includes the real estate valuation in the transaction and the tax base valuation in the real estate holding. In this study we focus on the theoretical development of artificial neural networks and mass appraisal of real estate, artificial neural networks model evolution and algorithm improvement, artificial neural networks practice and application, and review the existing literature about artificial neural networks and mass appraisal of real estate. Finally, we provide some suggestions for the mass appraisal of China's real estate.

  14. ISM Approach to Model Offshore Outsourcing Risks

    OpenAIRE

    Kumar, Sunand; Sharma, Rajiv Kumar; Chauhan, Prashant

    2014-01-01

    [EN] In an effort to achieve a competitive advantage via cost reductions and improved market responsiveness, organizations are increasingly employing offshore outsourcing as a major component of their supply chain strategies. But as evident from literature number of risks such as Political risk, Risk due to cultural differences, Compliance and regulatory risk, Opportunistic risk and Organization structural risk, which adversely affect the performance of offshore outsourcing in a supply chain ...

  15. COMMUNICATION OPENNESS IN PERFORMANCE APPRAISAL SYSTEMS ENHANCING JOB SATISFACTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ISMAIL Azman

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to investigate the relationship between communication openness in performance appraisal systems and job satisfaction. A survey method was employed to gather data from employees who have worked in a privatized postal company in Sarawak, Malaysia. SmartPLS version 2.0 was used to determine the validity and reliability of instrument and test the research hypotheses. The outcomes of SmartPLS path model showed that explanation and feedback were positively and significantly related to job satisfaction. This result confirms that the ability of appraisers to clearly explain the performance appraisal practices and adequately provide feedback in determining performance scores have been important predictors of appraises’ job satisfaction in the studied organization. Further, this study provides discussion, implications and conclusion.

  16. FASP, an analytic resource appraisal program for petroleum play analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crovelli, R.A.; Balay, R.H.

    1986-01-01

    An analytic probabilistic methodology for resource appraisal of undiscovered oil and gas resources in play analysis is presented in a FORTRAN program termed FASP. This play-analysis methodology is a geostochastic system for petroleum resource appraisal in explored as well as frontier areas. An established geologic model considers both the uncertainty of the presence of the assessed hydrocarbon and its amount if present. The program FASP produces resource estimates of crude oil, nonassociated gas, dissolved gas, and gas for a geologic play in terms of probability distributions. The analytic method is based upon conditional probability theory and many laws of expectation and variance. ?? 1986.

  17. The role of appraisal distortion, contempt, and morality in couple conflict: a grounded theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whiting, Jason B

    2008-01-01

    A common goal of couples' therapy is to help individuals modify their view of each other and the relationship. Distorted views and appraisals contribute to conflict, and these can be manifest by use of rationalization or denial. This study explored appraisal distortion as an evaluative and moral process that occurs during partner conflict, particularly when it becomes contemptuous and aggressive. Using a philosophical base that is grounded in the ethical relationship, a model of appraisal distortion and couple conflict was created using constructivist grounded theory methods. The theoretical concepts derived from the data show relationships between one's relational stance, appraisal distortion, and verbal and physical aggression. This model implies that helping individuals take responsibility for appraisals is important in treating conflict.

  18. Standard CMMIsm Appraisal Method for Process Improvement (SCAMPIsm), Version 1.1: Method Definition Document

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2001-01-01

    The Standard CMMI Appraisal Method for Process Improvement (SCAMPI(Service Mark)) is designed to provide benchmark quality ratings relative to Capability Maturity Model(registered) Integration (CMMI(Service Mark)) models...

  19. THE MODEL FOR RISK ASSESSMENT ERP-SYSTEMS INFORMATION SECURITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. S. Oladko

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the problem assessment of information security risks in the ERP-system. ERP-system functions and architecture are studied. The model malicious impacts on levels of ERP-system architecture are composed. Model-based risk assessment, which is the quantitative and qualitative approach to risk assessment, built on the partial unification 3 methods for studying the risks of information security - security models with full overlapping technique CRAMM and FRAP techniques developed.

  20. A numerical 4D Collision Risk Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmitt, Pal; Culloch, Ross; Lieber, Lilian; Kregting, Louise

    2017-04-01

    With the growing number of marine renewable energy (MRE) devices being installed across the world, some concern has been raised about the possibility of harming mobile, marine fauna by collision. Although physical contact between a MRE device and an organism has not been reported to date, these novel sub-sea structures pose a challenge for accurately estimating collision risks as part of environmental impact assessments. Even if the animal motion is simplified to linear translation, ignoring likely evasive behaviour, the mathematical problem of establishing an impact probability is not trivial. We present a numerical algorithm to obtain such probability distributions using transient, four-dimensional simulations of a novel marine renewable device concept, Deep Green, Minesto's power plant and hereafter referred to as the 'kite' that flies in a figure-of-eight configuration. Simulations were carried out altering several configurations including kite depth, kite speed and kite trajectory while keeping the speed of the moving object constant. Since the kite assembly is defined as two parts in the model, a tether (attached to the seabed) and the kite, collision risk of each part is reported independently. By comparing the number of collisions with the number of collision-free simulations, a probability of impact for each simulated position in the cross- section of the area is considered. Results suggest that close to the bottom, where the tether amplitude is small, the path is always blocked and the impact probability is 100% as expected. However, higher up in the water column, the collision probability is twice as high in the mid line, where the tether passes twice per period than at the extremes of its trajectory. The collision probability distribution is much more complex in the upper end of the water column, where the kite and tether can simultaneously collide with the object. Results demonstrate the viability of such models, which can also incorporate empirical

  1. Quantum theories of the early universe - a critical appraisal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hu, B.L.

    1988-01-01

    A critical appraisal of certain general problems in the study of quantum processes in curved space as applied to the construction of theories of the early universe is presented. Outstanding issues in different cosmological models and the degree of success of different quantum processes in addressing these issues are summarized. (author)

  2. Investment Appraisal Process in the Banking & Finance Industry

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.M. Akalu; J.R. Turner (Rodney)

    2002-01-01

    textabstractWe have studied how the banking and finance industry performs investment appraisal, measures subsequent follow-up and designates project success or failure. Furthermore, the authors looked into the extent of use of the new generation value management models. The result shows that firms

  3. Estimating internal exposure risks by the relative risk and the National Institute of Health risk models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mehta, S.K.; Sarangapani, R.

    1995-01-01

    This paper presents tabulations of risk (R) and person-years of life lost (PYLL) for acute exposures of individual organs at ages 20 and 40 yrs for the Indian and Japanese populations to illustrate the effect of age at exposure in the two models. Results are also presented for the organ wise nominal probability coefficients (NPC) and PYLL for individual organs for the age distributed Indian population by the two models. The results presented show that for all organs the estimates of PYLL and NPC for the Indian population are lower than those for the Japanese population by both models except for oesophagus, breast and ovary by the relative risk (RR) model, where the opposite trend is observed. The results also show that the Indian all-cancer values of NPC averaged over the two models is 2.9 x 10 -2 Sv -1 , significantly lower than the world average value of 5x10 -2 Sv -1 estimated by the ICRP. (author). 9 refs., 2 figs., 2 tabs

  4. Analysis of Appraising Agricultural Intangible Asset Value by Cost Method

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Xiao-Juan

    2010-01-01

    On the basis of describing the connotation of agricultural intangible asset and cost method, the technical ideas of appraising by cost method are introduced. The article analyzes the advantages (simple appraisal principle and easy to understand and grasp; overall consideration of various factors related to appraisal result value) and disadvantages (high appraisal cost; difficult to appraise and grasp various appraisal factors) of appraising by cost method. The article also summarizes the prec...

  5. Mobility: A Critical Appraisal

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    McIntosh, James; D. Munk, Martin

    that traditional methods used in the analysis of mobility tables will produce biased and, hence, unreliable estimates of the model's parameters if there are individual attributes that can be observed by the researcher like ability, for example. We also show that the schemata that are used to define social classes...... based on occupational groupings can be tested using classical statistical methods. Using Danish mobility data we found that there were plausible situations where these schemata are rejected by the data. A model of income was developed whose structural parameters could be estimated consistently....... This was then estimated on a Danish longitudinal data base in which respondents were surveyed in 1976 and again in 2000. The main conclusions are that household income depends significantly on parental background variables and in spite of the fact that Denmark has many universal social programmes devoted to improving...

  6. Proliferation Risk Characterization Model Prototype Model - User and Programmer Guidelines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dukelow, J.S.; Whitford, D.

    1998-12-01

    A model for the estimation of the risk of diversion of weapons-capable materials was developed. It represents both the threat of diversion and site vulnerability as a product of a small number of variables (two to eight), each of which can take on a small number (two to four) of qualitatively defined (but quantitatively implemented) values. The values of the overall threat and vulnerability variables are then converted to threat and vulnerability categories. The threat and vulnerability categories are used to define the likelihood of diversion, also defined categorically. The evaluator supplies an estimate of the consequences of a diversion, defined categorically, but with the categories based on the IAEA Attractiveness levels. Likelihood and Consequences categories are used to define the Risk, also defined categorically. The threat, vulnerability, and consequences input provided by the evaluator contains a representation of his/her uncertainty in each variable assignment which is propagated all the way through to the calculation of the Risk categories. [Appendix G available on diskette only.

  7. Bankruptcy risk model and empirical tests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Podobnik, Boris; Horvatic, Davor; Petersen, Alexander M.; Urošević, Branko; Stanley, H. Eugene

    2010-01-01

    We analyze the size dependence and temporal stability of firm bankruptcy risk in the US economy by applying Zipf scaling techniques. We focus on a single risk factor—the debt-to-asset ratio R—in order to study the stability of the Zipf distribution of R over time. We find that the Zipf exponent increases during market crashes, implying that firms go bankrupt with larger values of R. Based on the Zipf analysis, we employ Bayes’s theorem and relate the conditional probability that a bankrupt firm has a ratio R with the conditional probability of bankruptcy for a firm with a given R value. For 2,737 bankrupt firms, we demonstrate size dependence in assets change during the bankruptcy proceedings. Prepetition firm assets and petition firm assets follow Zipf distributions but with different exponents, meaning that firms with smaller assets adjust their assets more than firms with larger assets during the bankruptcy process. We compare bankrupt firms with nonbankrupt firms by analyzing the assets and liabilities of two large subsets of the US economy: 2,545 Nasdaq members and 1,680 New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) members. We find that both assets and liabilities follow a Pareto distribution. The finding is not a trivial consequence of the Zipf scaling relationship of firm size quantified by employees—although the market capitalization of Nasdaq stocks follows a Pareto distribution, the same distribution does not describe NYSE stocks. We propose a coupled Simon model that simultaneously evolves both assets and debt with the possibility of bankruptcy, and we also consider the possibility of firm mergers. PMID:20937903

  8. Self-focused attention affects subsequent processing of positive (but not negative) performance appraisals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holzman, Jacob B; Valentiner, David P

    2016-03-01

    Cognitive-behavioral models highlight the conjoint roles of self-focused attention (SFA), post-event processing (PEP), and performance appraisals in the maintenance of social anxiety. SFA, PEP, and biased performance appraisals are related to social anxiety; however, limited research has examined how SFA affects information-processing following social events. The current study examined whether SFA affects the relationships between performance appraisals and PEP following a social event.. 137 participants with high (n = 72) or low (n = 65) social anxiety were randomly assigned to conditions of high SFA or low SFA while engaging in a standardized social performance. Subsequent performance appraisals and PEP were measured. Immediate performance appraisals were not affected by SFA. High levels of SFA led to a stronger, inverse relationship between immediate positive performance appraisals and subsequent negative PEP. High levels of SFA also led to a stronger, inverse relationship between negative PEP and changes in positive performance appraisals.. Future research should examine whether the current findings, which involved a standardized social performance event, extend to interaction events as well as in a clinical sample. These findings suggest that SFA affects the processing of positive information following a social performance event. SFA is particularly important for understanding how negative PEP undermines positive performance appraisals.. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  9. 'Post-deployment appraisal' and the relationship with stress and psychological health in Australian veterans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, Breanna; Forbes, Andrew; Kelsall, Helen; Clarke, David; Ikin, Jill; Sim, Malcolm

    2015-12-01

    Understanding how veterans appraise their post-deployment experiences could provide insight into better assisting their deployment transitions. We aimed to assess the factor structure of positive and negative post-deployment appraisals in Australian veterans and to examine the resultant factors in their relationship with military stress and psychological health. Questions capturing post-deployment attitudes were developed by the researchers in collaboration with veterans. The questions were administered to 1938 veterans and the results factor analysed. The relationships between post-deployment appraisal, military stress and psychological health were examined using Structural Equation Modelling. A three-factor solution was found for the post-deployment appraisal questions; representing personal development, lack of recognition, and appreciation of life and country. Military stress was associated with the three factors and psychological health. The three factors were weakly to moderately associated with psychological health. Mediation between military stress and psychological health by any post-deployment appraisal factor was minimal. Post-deployment appraisal measures three important attitudes and concerns of veterans after deployment. Military stress is associated with the post-deployment appraisal factors. However, the factors did not mediate the relationship between military stress and psychological health. These factors provide insight into how veterans appraise their complex array of post-deployment experiences, and may provide useful in regard to transitions and integration into civilian life.

  10. HIV epidemic appraisals for assisting in the design of effective prevention programmes: shifting the paradigm back to basics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sharmistha Mishra

    Full Text Available To design HIV prevention programmes, it is critical to understand the temporal and geographic aspects of the local epidemic and to address the key behaviours that drive HIV transmission. Two methods have been developed to appraise HIV epidemics and guide prevention strategies. The numerical proxy method classifies epidemics based on current HIV prevalence thresholds. The Modes of Transmission (MOT model estimates the distribution of incidence over one year among risk-groups. Both methods focus on the current state of an epidemic and provide short-term metrics which may not capture the epidemiologic drivers. Through a detailed analysis of country and sub-national data, we explore the limitations of the two traditional methods and propose an alternative approach.We compared outputs of the traditional methods in five countries for which results were published, and applied the numeric and MOT model to India and six districts within India. We discovered three limitations of the current methods for epidemic appraisal: (1 their results failed to identify the key behaviours that drive the epidemic; (2 they were difficult to apply to local epidemics with heterogeneity across district-level administrative units; and (3 the MOT model was highly sensitive to input parameters, many of which required extraction from non-regional sources. We developed an alternative decision-tree framework for HIV epidemic appraisals, based on a qualitative understanding of epidemiologic drivers, and demonstrated its applicability in India. The alternative framework offered a logical algorithm to characterize epidemics; it required minimal but key data.Traditional appraisals that utilize the distribution of prevalent and incident HIV infections in the short-term could misguide prevention priorities and potentially impede efforts to halt the trajectory of the HIV epidemic. An approach that characterizes local transmission dynamics provides a potentially more effective tool with

  11. The globalization of risk and risk perception: why we need a new model of risk communication for vaccines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larson, Heidi; Brocard Paterson, Pauline; Erondu, Ngozi

    2012-11-01

    Risk communication and vaccines is complex and the nature of risk perception is changing, with perceptions converging, evolving and having impacts well beyond specific geographic localities and points in time, especially when amplified through the Internet and other modes of global communication. This article examines the globalization of risk perceptions and their impacts, including the example of measles and the globalization of measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine risk perceptions, and calls for a new, more holistic model of risk assessment, risk communication and risk mitigation, embedded in an ongoing process of risk management for vaccines and immunization programmes. It envisions risk communication as an ongoing process that includes trust-building strategies hand-in-hand with operational and policy strategies needed to mitigate and manage vaccine-related risks, as well as perceptions of risk.

  12. Modeling issues in nuclear plant fire risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siu, N.

    1989-01-01

    This paper discusses various issues associated with current models for analyzing the risk due to fires in nuclear power plants. Particular emphasis is placed on the fire growth and suppression models, these being unique to the fire portion of the overall risk analysis. Potentially significant modeling improvements are identified; also discussed are a variety of modeling issues where improvements will help the credibility of the analysis, without necessarily changing the computed risk significantly. The mechanistic modeling of fire initiation is identified as a particularly promising improvement for reducing the uncertainties in the predicted risk. 17 refs., 5 figs. 2 tabs

  13. The Power of Developmental Performance Appraisal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nasser Salim Alghanabousi

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Development of employee performance is a must that any organization should take into account to be a successful in achieving its goals. However, the tools of developing that performance are varying based on the type of the organization and the nature of the work performed. Performance appraisal is one of the effective tools that help the organization to measure the accomplishment of its goals, if implemented effectively. In education, it became evident that performance appraisal of educators is an essential element of the development of any educational institution. To make the performance appraisal fruitful, the development element should be dominant in the sense that other elements of the appraisal should serve the broad aim of the appraisal process. Therefore, a well-designed and comprehensive system is needed to cover all the aspects of appraisal process that include of the goals, criteria, instruments, and continuous support.

  14. A Knowledge-Based Model of Audit Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Dhar, Vasant; Lewis, Barry; Peters, James

    1988-01-01

    Within the academic and professional auditing communities, there has been growing concern about how to accurately assess the various risks associated with performing an audit. These risks are difficult to conceptualize in terms of numeric estimates. This article discusses the development of a prototype computational model (computer program) that assesses one of the major audit risks -- inherent risk. This program bases most of its inferencing activities on a qualitative model of a typical bus...

  15. Enhanced leak detection risk model development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harron, Lorna; Barlow, Rick; Farquhar, Ted [Enbridge Pipelines Inc., Edmonton, Alberta (Canada)

    2010-07-01

    Increasing concerns and attention to pipeline safety have engaged pipeline companies and regulatory agencies to extend their approaches to pipeline integrity. The implementation of High Consequence Areas (HCAs) has especially had an impact on the development of integrity management protocols (IMPs) for pipelines. These IMPs can require that a risk based assessment of integrity issues be applied to specific HCA risk factors. This paper addresses the development of an operational risk assessment approach for pipeline leak detection requirements for HCAs. A detailed risk assessment algorithm that includes 25 risk variables and 28 consequence variables was developed for application to all HCA areas. This paper describes the consultative process that was used to workshop the development of this algorithm. Included in this description is how the process addressed various methods of leak detection across a wide variety of pipelines. The paper also looks at development challenges and future steps in applying operation risk assessment techniques to mainline leak detection risk management.

  16. Adequacy of relative and absolute risk models for lifetime risk estimate of radiation-induced cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McBride, M.; Coldman, A.J.

    1988-03-01

    This report examines the applicability of the relative (multiplicative) and absolute (additive) models in predicting lifetime risk of radiation-induced cancer. A review of the epidemiologic literature, and a discussion of the mathematical models of carcinogenesis and their relationship to these models of lifetime risk, are included. Based on the available data, the relative risk model for the estimation of lifetime risk is preferred for non-sex-specific epithelial tumours. However, because of lack of knowledge concerning other determinants of radiation risk and of background incidence rates, considerable uncertainty in modelling lifetime risk still exists. Therefore, it is essential that follow-up of exposed cohorts be continued so that population-based estimates of lifetime risk are available

  17. Appraisal patterns of envy and related emotions

    OpenAIRE

    van de Ven, Niels; Zeelenberg, Marcel; Pieters, Rik

    2011-01-01

    Envy is a frustrating emotion that arises from upward social comparison. Two studies investigated the appraisals that distinguish benign envy (aimed at improving one’s own situation) from malicious envy (aimed at pulling down the superior other). Study 1 found that appraisals of deservingness and control potential differentiated both types of envy. We manipulated these appraisals in Study 2 and found that while both did not influence the intensity of envy, they did determine the type of envy ...

  18. Non-financial analysis in project appraisal – an empirical study

    OpenAIRE

    Moutinho, Nuno; Lopes, MDS

    2011-01-01

    Recent literature has been emphasising the need to take both financial and nonfinancial aspects into consideration when considering capital budgeting decisions. This is to be done since the early stages of project appraisal, and not only when risks become reality. We wanted to know to what extent portuguese companies are aware of the importance of non financial aspects at their project appraisal processes, and, in their practices, what exactly they are doing and considering as more or less i...

  19. Social behavior, interaction appraisals, and suicidal ideation in schizophrenia: The dangers of being alone

    OpenAIRE

    Depp, Colin A.; Moore, Raeanne C.; Perivoliotis, Dimitri; Holden, Jason L.; Swendsen, Joel; Granholm, Eric L.

    2016-01-01

    Despite the increasing attention to social appraisals in suicide risk, the interpersonal correlates of suicidal thoughts and behavior in schizophrenia are not well understood. Ecological momentary assessment could reveal whether dysfunctional social appraisals and behavior are evident in people with schizophrenia with suicidal ideation. A total of 93 outpatients with diagnoses of schizophrenia with (n = 18, 19%) and without (N = 75; 81%) suicidal ideation participated in one week of intensive...

  20. Sigmoidal response model for radiation risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kondo, Sohei

    1995-01-01

    From epidemiologic studies, we find no measurable increase in the incidences of birth defects and cancer after low-level exposure to radiation. Based on modern understanding of the molecular basis of teratogenesis and cancer, I attempt to explain thresholds observed in atomic bomb survivors, radium painters, uranium workers and patients injected with Thorotrast. Teratogenic injury induced by doses below threshold will be completely eliminated as a result of altruistic death (apoptosis) of injured cells. Various lines of evidence obtained show that oncomutations produced in cancerous cells after exposure to radiation are of spontaneous origin and that ionizing radiation acts not as an oncomutation inducer but as a tumor promoter by induction of chronic wound-healing activity. The tissue damage induced by radiation has to be repaired by cell growth and this creates opportunity for clonal expansion of a spontaneously occurring preneoplastic cell. If the wound-healing error model is correct, there must be a threshold dose range of radiation giving no increase in cancer risk. (author)

  1. A comparative review of radiation-induced cancer risk models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Seung Hee; Kim, Ju Youl [FNC Technology Co., Ltd., Yongin (Korea, Republic of); Han, Seok Jung [Risk and Environmental Safety Research Division, Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-06-15

    With the need for a domestic level 3 probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), it is essential to develop a Korea-specific code. Health effect assessments study radiation-induced impacts; in particular, long-term health effects are evaluated in terms of cancer risk. The objective of this study was to analyze the latest cancer risk models developed by foreign organizations and to compare the methodology of how they were developed. This paper also provides suggestions regarding the development of Korean cancer risk models. A review of cancer risk models was carried out targeting the latest models: the NUREG model (1993), the BEIR VII model (2006), the UNSCEAR model (2006), the ICRP 103 model (2007), and the U.S. EPA model (2011). The methodology of how each model was developed is explained, and the cancer sites, dose and dose rate effectiveness factor (DDREF) and mathematical models are also described in the sections presenting differences among the models. The NUREG model was developed by assuming that the risk was proportional to the risk coefficient and dose, while the BEIR VII, UNSCEAR, ICRP, and U.S. EPA models were derived from epidemiological data, principally from Japanese atomic bomb survivors. The risk coefficient does not consider individual characteristics, as the values were calculated in terms of population-averaged cancer risk per unit dose. However, the models derived by epidemiological data are a function of sex, exposure age, and attained age of the exposed individual. Moreover, the methodologies can be used to apply the latest epidemiological data. Therefore, methodologies using epidemiological data should be considered first for developing a Korean cancer risk model, and the cancer sites and DDREF should also be determined based on Korea-specific studies. This review can be used as a basis for developing a Korean cancer risk model in the future.

  2. Tutorial in biostatistics: competing risks and multi-state models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Putter, H.; Fiocco, M.; Geskus, R. B.

    2007-01-01

    Standard survival data measure the time span from some time origin until the occurrence of one type of event. If several types of events occur, a model describing progression to each of these competing risks is needed. Multi-state models generalize competing risks models by also describing

  3. 76 FR 72306 - Federal Housing Administration (FHA) Appraiser Roster: Appraiser Qualifications for Placement on...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-11-23

    ... disciplinary action in any state in which the appraiser is certified; * * * * * (c) * * * (1) Appraisers subject to state disciplinary action. An appraiser whose state certification in any state has been revoked, suspended, or surrendered as a result of a state disciplinary action is automatically suspended from the...

  4. Positive emotion, appraisal, and the role of appraisal overlap in positive emotion co-occurrence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tong, Eddie M W; Jia, Lile

    2017-02-01

    Appraisal research has traditionally focused on negative emotions but has not addressed issues concerning the relationships between several positive emotions and appraisals in daily life and the extent to which co-occurrence of positive emotions can be explained by overlap in appraisals. Driven by a priori hypotheses on appraisal-emotion relationships, this study investigated 12 positive emotions and 13 appraisal dimensions using Ecological Momentary Assessment. The results provide strong evidence that positive emotions and appraisals correlate significantly in daily life. Importantly, we found that the positive emotions' overlap on theoretically relevant, as compared to irrelevant, appraisals was stronger and more predictive of their co-occurrence. Furthermore, appraisal overlap on theoretically relevant appraisals predicted the co-occurrence of positive emotions even when the appraisal of pleasantness was excluded, indicating that positive emotions do not co-occur just by virtue of their shared valence. Our findings affirmed and refined the appraisal profiles of positive emotions and underscore the importance of appraisals in accounting for the commonality and differences among positive emotions. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  5. Test Takers' Performance Appraisals, Appraisal Calibration, and Cognitive and Metacognitive Strategy Use

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phakiti, Aek

    2016-01-01

    The current study explores the nature and relationships among test takers' performance appraisals, appraisal calibration, and reported cognitive and metacognitive strategy use in a language test situation. Performance appraisals are executive processes of strategic competence for judging test performance (e.g., evaluating the correctness or…

  6. B plant/WESF integrated annual safety appraisal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anderson, J.K.

    1990-12-01

    This report provides the results of the Fiscal Year 1990 Annual Integrated Safety Appraisal of the B Plant and Waste Encapsulation and Storage Facility in the Hanford Site 200 East Area. The appraisal was conducted in August and September 1990, by the Defense Waste Disposal Safety group, in conjunction with Health Physics and Emergency Preparedness. Reports of these three organizations for their areas of responsibility are presented. The purpose of the appraisal was to determine if the areas being appraised meet US Department of Energy (DOE) and Westinghouse Hanford Company (WHC) requirements and current industry standards of good practice. A further purpose was to identify areas in which program effectiveness could be improved. In accordance with the guidance of WHC Management Requirements and Procedures 5.6, previously identified deficiencies which are being resolved by line management were not repeated as Findings or Observations unless progress or intended disposition was considered to be unsatisfactory. The overall assessment is that there are no major safety problems associated with current operations. Programs are in place to provide the necessary safety controls, evaluations, overviews, and support. In most respects these programs are being implemented effectively. However, there are a number of deficiencies in details of program design and implementation. The appraisal identified a total of 23 Findings and 27 Observations of deficiencies. All Observations are Seriousness Category 3. Fifteen Findings were Category 2 and 8 were Category 3. Most of the Category 2 Findings were so categorized on the basis of noncompliance with mandatory DOE Orders or WHC policies and procedures, rather than potential risk to personnel

  7. Including investment risk in large-scale power market models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lemming, Jørgen Kjærgaard; Meibom, P.

    2003-01-01

    Long-term energy market models can be used to examine investments in production technologies, however, with market liberalisation it is crucial that such models include investment risks and investor behaviour. This paper analyses how the effect of investment risk on production technology selection...... can be included in large-scale partial equilibrium models of the power market. The analyses are divided into a part about risk measures appropriate for power market investors and a more technical part about the combination of a risk-adjustment model and a partial-equilibrium model. To illustrate...... the analyses quantitatively, a framework based on an iterative interaction between the equilibrium model and a separate risk-adjustment module was constructed. To illustrate the features of the proposed modelling approach we examined how uncertainty in demand and variable costs affects the optimal choice...

  8. Risk communication: a mental models approach

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Morgan, M. Granger (Millett Granger)

    2002-01-01

    ... information about risks. The procedure uses approaches from risk and decision analysis to identify the most relevant information; it also uses approaches from psychology and communication theory to ensure that its message is understood. This book is written in nontechnical terms, designed to make the approach feasible for anyone willing to try it. It is illustrat...

  9. Square Pegs and Round Holes: Ruminations on the Relationship between Performance Appraisal and Performance Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gravina, Nicole E.; Siers, Brian P.

    2011-01-01

    Models of comprehensive Performance Management systems include both employee development and evaluative components. The Organizational Behavior Management discipline focuses almost exclusively on the developmental component, while the Industrial and Organizational Psychology discipline is focused on use of performance appraisals. Performance…

  10. Stochastic models in risk theory and management accounting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brekelmans, R.C.M.

    2000-01-01

    This thesis deals with stochastic models in two fields: risk theory and management accounting. Firstly, two extensions of the classical risk process are analyzed. A method is developed that computes bounds of the probability of ruin for the classical risk rocess extended with a constant interest

  11. Operational risk quantification and modelling within Romanian insurance industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tudor Răzvan

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims at covering and describing the shortcomings of various models used to quantify and model the operational risk within insurance industry with a particular focus on Romanian specific regulation: Norm 6/2015 concerning the operational risk issued by IT systems. While most of the local insurers are focusing on implementing the standard model to compute the Operational Risk solvency capital required, the local regulator has issued a local norm that requires to identify and assess the IT based operational risks from an ISO 27001 perspective. The challenges raised by the correlations assumed in the Standard model are substantially increased by this new regulation that requires only the identification and quantification of the IT operational risks. The solvency capital requirement stipulated by the implementation of Solvency II doesn’t recommend a model or formula on how to integrate the newly identified risks in the Operational Risk capital requirements. In this context we are going to assess the academic and practitioner’s understanding in what concerns: The Frequency-Severity approach, Bayesian estimation techniques, Scenario Analysis and Risk Accounting based on risk units, and how they could support the modelling of operational risk that are IT based. Developing an internal model only for the operational risk capital requirement proved to be, so far, costly and not necessarily beneficial for the local insurers. As the IT component will play a key role in the future of the insurance industry, the result of this analysis will provide a specific approach in operational risk modelling that can be implemented in the context of Solvency II, in a particular situation when (internal or external operational risk databases are scarce or not available.

  12. Risk Modeling Approaches in Terms of Volatility Banking Transactions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angelica Cucşa (Stratulat

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The inseparability of risk and banking activity is one demonstrated ever since banking systems, the importance of the topic being presend in current life and future equally in the development of banking sector. Banking sector development is done in the context of the constraints of nature and number of existing risks and those that may arise, and serves as limiting the risk of banking activity. We intend to develop approaches to analyse risk through mathematical models by also developing a model for the Romanian capital market 10 active trading picks that will test investor reaction in controlled and uncontrolled conditions of risk aggregated with harmonised factors.

  13. Integrating Household Risk Mitigation Behavior in Flood Risk Analysis: An Agent-Based Model Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haer, Toon; Botzen, W J Wouter; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen C J H

    2017-10-01

    Recent studies showed that climate change and socioeconomic trends are expected to increase flood risks in many regions. However, in these studies, human behavior is commonly assumed to be constant, which neglects interaction and feedback loops between human and environmental systems. This neglect of human adaptation leads to a misrepresentation of flood risk. This article presents an agent-based model that incorporates human decision making in flood risk analysis. In particular, household investments in loss-reducing measures are examined under three economic decision models: (1) expected utility theory, which is the traditional economic model of rational agents; (2) prospect theory, which takes account of bounded rationality; and (3) a prospect theory model, which accounts for changing risk perceptions and social interactions through a process of Bayesian updating. We show that neglecting human behavior in flood risk assessment studies can result in a considerable misestimation of future flood risk, which is in our case study an overestimation of a factor two. Furthermore, we show how behavior models can support flood risk analysis under different behavioral assumptions, illustrating the need to include the dynamic adaptive human behavior of, for instance, households, insurers, and governments. The method presented here provides a solid basis for exploring human behavior and the resulting flood risk with respect to low-probability/high-impact risks. © 2016 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

  14. Calibration plots for risk prediction models in the presence of competing risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gerds, Thomas A; Andersen, Per K; Kattan, Michael W

    2014-01-01

    A predicted risk of 17% can be called reliable if it can be expected that the event will occur to about 17 of 100 patients who all received a predicted risk of 17%. Statistical models can predict the absolute risk of an event such as cardiovascular death in the presence of competing risks...... prediction model is well calibrated. The first is lack of independent validation data, the second is right censoring, and the third is that when the risk scale is continuous, the estimation problem is as difficult as density estimation. To deal with these problems, we propose to estimate calibration curves...

  15. The study of the risk management model of construction project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jiang Bo; Feng Yanping; Liu Changbin

    2010-01-01

    The paper first analyzed the development of the risk management of construction project and the risk management processes, and then briefly introduced the risk management experience of foreign project management. From the project management by objectives point of view, the greatest risk came from the lack of clarity of the objectives in the project management, which led to the project's risk emergence. In the analysis of the principles of the project objectives identification and risk allocation, the paper set up a project management model which insurance companies involved in the whole process of the project management, and simply analyzed the roles of insurance company at last. (authors)

  16. Survey and critique of quantitative methods for the appraisal of mineral resources. Progress report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harris, D.P.

    1976-01-01

    Two major categories of appraisal methods (models) for regional mineral resources are identified by virtue of the manner in which mineral endowment is treated in the appraisal: implicit and explicit models. Implicit models do not identify nor specify the mineral endowment model. Mineral resources are inferred to exist as required to fulfill economic or secular relationships. Econometric models of mineral supply and Hubbert's time-rate trend projection are varieties of implicit models. Explicit mineral resource models separate the economic and endowment models and state the endowment model explicitly. Explicit models describe mineral endowment as a function of some physical aspect of the earth's crust, such as geology, volume of rock, density of mineral occurrences, and crustal abundance of an element. Economic factors are introduced subsequent to the appraisal of endowment either as an explicit model which interacts with the deposits inferred by the endowment model, or as a simple adjustment made directly on some aggregate measure of endowment

  17. Social appraisal influences recognition of emotions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mumenthaler, Christian; Sander, David

    2012-06-01

    The notion of social appraisal emphasizes the importance of a social dimension in appraisal theories of emotion by proposing that the way an individual appraises an event is influenced by the way other individuals appraise and feel about the same event. This study directly tested this proposal by asking participants to recognize dynamic facial expressions of emotion (fear, happiness, or anger in Experiment 1; fear, happiness, anger, or neutral in Experiment 2) in a target face presented at the center of a screen while a contextual face, which appeared simultaneously in the periphery of the screen, expressed an emotion (fear, happiness, anger) or not (neutral) and either looked at the target face or not. We manipulated gaze direction to be able to distinguish between a mere contextual effect (gaze away from both the target face and the participant) and a specific social appraisal effect (gaze toward the target face). Results of both experiments provided evidence for a social appraisal effect in emotion recognition, which differed from the mere effect of contextual information: Whereas facial expressions were identical in both conditions, the direction of the gaze of the contextual face influenced emotion recognition. Social appraisal facilitated the recognition of anger, happiness, and fear when the contextual face expressed the same emotion. This facilitation was stronger than the mere contextual effect. Social appraisal also allowed better recognition of fear when the contextual face expressed anger and better recognition of anger when the contextual face expressed fear. 2012 APA, all rights reserved

  18. 12 CFR 34.45 - Appraiser independence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Appraiser independence. 34.45 Section 34.45 Banks and Banking COMPTROLLER OF THE CURRENCY, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY REAL ESTATE LENDING AND... appraiser shall be engaged directly by the regulated institution or its agent, and have no direct or...

  19. 12 CFR 722.5 - Appraiser independence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Appraiser independence. 722.5 Section 722.5 Banks and Banking NATIONAL CREDIT UNION ADMINISTRATION REGULATIONS AFFECTING CREDIT UNIONS APPRAISALS... interest, financial or otherwise, in the property. If the only qualified persons available to perform an...

  20. Appraisal patterns of envy and related emotions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van de Ven, N.; Zeelenberg, M.; Pieters, R.

    2012-01-01

    Envy is a frustrating emotion that arises from upward social comparison. Two studies investigated the appraisals that distinguish benign envy (aimed at improving one’s own situation) from malicious envy (aimed at pulling down the superior other). Study 1 found that appraisals of deservingness and

  1. Performance appraisal of coaches: Acomparative study | Surujlal ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Within the sport environment, the performance appraisal of coaches continues to be an issue. The performance appraisal of coaches is critical to sport organizations since major decisions like rewarding or terminating coaches is based on it. The purpose of this study was to examine whether any differences exist with regard ...

  2. 45 CFR 1160.12 - Appraisal procedures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... the amount of partial loss, or damage to, or any reduction in the fair market value as a result..., any reduction in the fair market value of, the indemnified item(s). The appraisers' agreement with... appropriate, such reduction in the fair market value. Disputes between the appraisers with respect to partial...

  3. Conceptualizing a Dynamic Fall Risk Model Including Intrinsic Risks and Exposures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klenk, Jochen; Becker, Clemens; Palumbo, Pierpaolo; Schwickert, Lars; Rapp, Kilan; Helbostad, Jorunn L; Todd, Chris; Lord, Stephen R; Kerse, Ngaire

    2017-11-01

    Falls are a major cause of injury and disability in older people, leading to serious health and social consequences including fractures, poor quality of life, loss of independence, and institutionalization. To design and provide adequate prevention measures, accurate understanding and identification of person's individual fall risk is important. However, to date, the performance of fall risk models is weak compared with models estimating, for example, cardiovascular risk. This deficiency may result from 2 factors. First, current models consider risk factors to be stable for each person and not change over time, an assumption that does not reflect real-life experience. Second, current models do not consider the interplay of individual exposure including type of activity (eg, walking, undertaking transfers) and environmental risks (eg, lighting, floor conditions) in which activity is performed. Therefore, we posit a dynamic fall risk model consisting of intrinsic risk factors that vary over time and exposure (activity in context). eHealth sensor technology (eg, smartphones) begins to enable the continuous measurement of both the above factors. We illustrate our model with examples of real-world falls from the FARSEEING database. This dynamic framework for fall risk adds important aspects that may improve understanding of fall mechanisms, fall risk models, and the development of fall prevention interventions. Copyright © 2017 AMDA – The Society for Post-Acute and Long-Term Care Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Risk matrix model applied to the outsourcing of logistics' activities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fouad Jawab

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: This paper proposes the application of the risk matrix model in the field of logistics outsourcing. Such an application can serve as the basis for decision making regarding the conduct of a risk management in the logistics outsourcing process and allow its prevention. Design/methodology/approach: This study is based on the risk management of logistics outsourcing in the field of the retail sector in Morocco. The authors identify all possible risks and then classify and prioritize them using the Risk Matrix Model. Finally, we have come to four possible decisions for the identified risks. The analysis was made possible through interviews and discussions with the heads of departments and agents who are directly involved in each outsourced activity. Findings and Originality/value: It is possible to improve the risk matrix model by proposing more personalized prevention measures according to each company that operates in the mass-market retailing. Originality/value: This study is the only one made in the process of logistics outsourcing in the retail sector in Morocco through Label’vie as a case study. First, we had identified as thorough as we could all possible risks, then we applied the Risk Matrix Model to sort them out in an ascending order of importance and criticality. As a result, we could hand out to the decision-makers the mapping for an effective control of risks and a better guiding of the process of risk management.

  5. A Process Model for Assessing Adolescent Risk for Suicide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stoelb, Matt; Chiriboga, Jennifer

    1998-01-01

    This comprehensive assessment process model includes primary, secondary, and situational risk factors and their combined implications and significance in determining an adolescent's level or risk for suicide. Empirical data and clinical intuition are integrated to form a working client model that guides the professional in continuously reassessing…

  6. Tests of control in the Audit Risk Model : Effective? Efficient?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Blokdijk, J.H. (Hans)

    2004-01-01

    Lately, the Audit Risk Model has been subject to criticism. To gauge its validity, this paper confronts the Audit Risk Model as incorporated in International Standard on Auditing No. 400, with the real life situations faced by auditors in auditing financial statements. This confrontation exposes

  7. Multivariate operational risk: dependence modelling with Lévy copulas

    OpenAIRE

    Böcker, K. and Klüppelberg, C.

    2015-01-01

    Simultaneous modelling of operational risks occurring in different event type/business line cells poses the challenge for operational risk quantification. Invoking the new concept of L´evy copulas for dependence modelling yields simple approximations of high quality for multivariate operational VAR.

  8. Radiation risk estimation based on measurement error models

    CERN Document Server

    Masiuk, Sergii; Shklyar, Sergiy; Chepurny, Mykola; Likhtarov, Illya

    2017-01-01

    This monograph discusses statistics and risk estimates applied to radiation damage under the presence of measurement errors. The first part covers nonlinear measurement error models, with a particular emphasis on efficiency of regression parameter estimators. In the second part, risk estimation in models with measurement errors is considered. Efficiency of the methods presented is verified using data from radio-epidemiological studies.

  9. Incorporating Contagion in Portfolio Credit Risk Models Using Network Theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anagnostou, I.; Sourabh, S.; Kandhai, D.

    2018-01-01

    Portfolio credit risk models estimate the range of potential losses due to defaults or deteriorations in credit quality. Most of these models perceive default correlation as fully captured by the dependence on a set of common underlying risk factors. In light of empirical evidence, the ability of

  10. Comparison of additive (absolute) risk projection models and multiplicative (relative) risk projection models in estimating radiation-induced lifetime cancer risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kai, Michiaki; Kusama, Tomoko

    1990-01-01

    Lifetime cancer risk estimates depend on risk projection models. While the increasing lengths of follow-up observation periods of atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki bring about changes in cancer risk estimates, the validity of the two risk projection models, the additive risk projection model (AR) and multiplicative risk projection model (MR), comes into question. This paper compares the lifetime risk or loss of life-expectancy between the two projection models on the basis of BEIR-III report or recently published RERF report. With Japanese cancer statistics the estimates of MR were greater than those of AR, but a reversal of these results was seen when the cancer hazard function for India was used. When we investigated the validity of the two projection models using epidemiological human data and animal data, the results suggested that MR was superior to AR with respect to temporal change, but there was little evidence to support its validity. (author)

  11. Statistical and RBF NN models : providing forecasts and risk assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Marček, Milan

    2009-01-01

    Forecast accuracy of economic and financial processes is a popular measure for quantifying the risk in decision making. In this paper, we develop forecasting models based on statistical (stochastic) methods, sometimes called hard computing, and on a soft method using granular computing. We consider the accuracy of forecasting models as a measure for risk evaluation. It is found that the risk estimation process based on soft methods is simplified and less critical to the question w...

  12. Priority setting and economic appraisal: whose priorities--the community or the economist?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, A; Barker, C

    1988-01-01

    Scarce resources for health require a process for setting priorities. The exact mechanism chosen has important implications for the type of priorities and plans set, and in particular their relationship to the principles of primary health care. One technique increasingly advocated as an aid to priority setting is economic appraisal. It is argued however that economic appraisal is likely to reinforce a selective primary health care approach through its espousal of a technocratic medical model and through its hidden but implicit value judgements. It is suggested that urgent attention is needed to develop approaches to priority setting that incorporate the strengths of economic appraisal, but that are consistent with comprehensive primary health care.

  13. Appraisal patterns of envy and related emotions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van de Ven, Niels; Zeelenberg, Marcel; Pieters, Rik

    2012-06-01

    Envy is a frustrating emotion that arises from upward social comparison. Two studies investigated the appraisals that distinguish benign envy (aimed at improving one's own situation) from malicious envy (aimed at pulling down the superior other). Study 1 found that appraisals of deservingness and control potential differentiated both types of envy. We manipulated these appraisals in Study 2 and found that while both did not influence the intensity of envy, they did determine the type of envy that resulted. The more a situation was appraised as undeserved, the more participants experienced malicious envy. Benign envy was experienced more when the situation was not undeserved, and the most when the situation was appraised as both deserved and controllable. The current research also clarifies how the types of envy differ from the related emotions admiration and resentment.

  14. The appraisal of clinical guidelines in dentistry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glenny, Anne-Marie; Worthington, Helen V; Clarkson, Jan E; Esposito, Marco

    2009-01-01

    To appraise the reported processes involved in the development of published dental guidelines. Electronic databases were searched to identify guidelines making recommendations for any health professional within dentistry. All included guidelines were appraised using the Appraisal of Guidelines Research and Evaluation (AGREE) instrument. A total of 105 guidelines met the inclusion criteria. The appraised guidelines showed lack of rigour in their development (median score 14.3%; range 0% to 100%). Only 10 (9.5%) were coded as 'strongly recommend' by at least two assessors. If recommendations within clinical guidelines are to be relied upon, the methods used in their development must be explicit and free from bias. When using the AGREE checklist to make decisions on whether or not to implement individual sets of guidelines, the findings of the present assessment reinforce the need for more than two assessors to be included in the appraisal of each set of guidelines.

  15. Real-world use of the risk-need-responsivity model and the level of service/case management inventory with community-supervised offenders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dyck, Heather L; Campbell, Mary Ann; Wershler, Julie L

    2018-06-01

    The risk-need-responsivity model (RNR; Bonta & Andrews, 2017) has become a leading approach for effective offender case management, but field tests of this model are still required. The present study first assessed the predictive validity of the RNR-informed Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (LS/CMI; Andrews, Bonta, & Wormith, 2004) with a sample of Atlantic Canadian male and female community-supervised provincial offenders (N = 136). Next, the case management plans prepared from these LS/CMI results were analyzed for adherence to the principles of risk, need, and responsivity. As expected, the LS/CMI was a strong predictor of general recidivism for both males (area under the curve = .75, 95% confidence interval [.66, .85]), and especially females (area under the curve = .94, 95% confidence interval [.84, 1.00]), over an average 3.42-year follow-up period. The LS/CMI was predictive of time to recidivism, with lower risk cases taking longer to reoffend than higher risk cases. Despite the robust predictive validity of the LS/CMI, case management plans developed by probation officers generally reflected poor adherence to the RNR principles. These findings highlight the need for better training on how to transfer risk appraisal information from valid risk tools to case plans to better meet the best-practice principles of risk, need, and responsivity for criminal behavior risk reduction. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

  16. The complex model of risk and progression of AMD estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. S. Akopyan

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: to develop a method and a statistical model to estimate individual risk of AMD and the risk for progression to advanced AMD using clinical and genetic risk factors.Methods: A statistical risk assessment model was developed using stepwise binary logistic regression analysis. to estimate the population differences in the prevalence of allelic variants of genes and for the development of models adapted to the population of Moscow region genotyping and assessment of the influence of other risk factors was performed in two groups: patients with differ- ent stages of AMD (n = 74, and control group (n = 116. Genetic risk factors included in the study: polymorphisms in the complement system genes (C3 and CFH, genes at 10q26 locus (ARMS2 and HtRA1, polymorphism in the mitochondrial gene Mt-ND2. Clinical risk factors included in the study: age, gender, high body mass index, smoking history.Results: A comprehensive analysis of genetic and clinical risk factors for AMD in the study group was performed. Compiled statis- tical model assessment of individual risk of AMD, the sensitivity of the model — 66.7%, specificity — 78.5%, AUC = 0.76. Risk factors of late AMD, compiled a statistical model describing the probability of late AMD, the sensitivity of the model — 66.7%, specificity — 78.3%, AUC = 0.73. the developed system allows determining the most likely version of the current late AMD: dry or wet.Conclusion: the developed test system and the mathematical algorhythm for determining the risk of AMD, risk of progression to advanced AMD have fair diagnostic informative and promising for use in clinical practice.

  17. Adoption of Building Information Modelling in project planning risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mering, M. M.; Aminudin, E.; Chai, C. S.; Zakaria, R.; Tan, C. S.; Lee, Y. Y.; Redzuan, A. A.

    2017-11-01

    An efficient and effective risk management required a systematic and proper methodology besides knowledge and experience. However, if the risk management is not discussed from the starting of the project, this duty is notably complicated and no longer efficient. This paper presents the adoption of Building Information Modelling (BIM) in project planning risk management. The objectives is to identify the traditional risk management practices and its function, besides, determine the best function of BIM in risk management and investigating the efficiency of adopting BIM-based risk management during the project planning phase. In order to obtain data, a quantitative approach is adopted in this research. Based on data analysis, the lack of compliance with project requirements and failure to recognise risk and develop responses to opportunity are the risks occurred when traditional risk management is implemented. When using BIM in project planning, it works as the tracking of cost control and cash flow give impact on the project cycle to be completed on time. 5D cost estimation or cash flow modeling benefit risk management in planning, controlling and managing budget and cost reasonably. There were two factors that mostly benefit a BIM-based technology which were formwork plan with integrated fall plan and design for safety model check. By adopting risk management, potential risks linked with a project and acknowledging to those risks can be identified to reduce them to an acceptable extent. This means recognizing potential risks and avoiding threat by reducing their negative effects. The BIM-based risk management can enhance the planning process of construction projects. It benefits the construction players in various aspects. It is important to know the application of BIM-based risk management as it can be a lesson learnt to others to implement BIM and increase the quality of the project.

  18. Risk Prediction Model for Severe Postoperative Complication in Bariatric Surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stenberg, Erik; Cao, Yang; Szabo, Eva; Näslund, Erik; Näslund, Ingmar; Ottosson, Johan

    2018-01-12

    Factors associated with risk for adverse outcome are important considerations in the preoperative assessment of patients for bariatric surgery. As yet, prediction models based on preoperative risk factors have not been able to predict adverse outcome sufficiently. This study aimed to identify preoperative risk factors and to construct a risk prediction model based on these. Patients who underwent a bariatric surgical procedure in Sweden between 2010 and 2014 were identified from the Scandinavian Obesity Surgery Registry (SOReg). Associations between preoperative potential risk factors and severe postoperative complications were analysed using a logistic regression model. A multivariate model for risk prediction was created and validated in the SOReg for patients who underwent bariatric surgery in Sweden, 2015. Revision surgery (standardized OR 1.19, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.14-0.24, p prediction model. Despite high specificity, the sensitivity of the model was low. Revision surgery, high age, low BMI, large waist circumference, and dyspepsia/GERD were associated with an increased risk for severe postoperative complication. The prediction model based on these factors, however, had a sensitivity that was too low to predict risk in the individual patient case.

  19. Appraisals, perceived dyadic communication, and quality of life over time among couples coping with prostate cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Lixin; Rini, Christine; Ellis, Katrina R; Northouse, Laurel L

    2016-09-01

    Little research has examined how prostate cancer patients' and their spouses' appraisals of illness and quality of life (QOL) interact with one another. This study examined the interdependent relationships between their appraisals of illness and QOL and if their perceived dyadic communication mediated these relationships. We used the Actor-Partner Interdependence Mediation Model (APIMeM) approach to conduct a secondary analysis of longitudinal data from 124 prostate cancer patient-spouse dyads. We examined actor effects (each person's influence on his/her own outcomes) and partner effects (each person's influence on his/her partner's outcomes). Appraisals of illness, perceived dyadic communication, and QOL were measured using Appraisal of Illness Scale, Lewis Mutuality and Interpersonal Sensitivity Scale, and Functional Assessment of Chronic Illness Therapy General Scale, respectively. Analyses controlled for effects of prostate cancer symptoms and demographic factors. Among actor effects, spouses with more negative appraisals at baseline perceived worse dyadic communication 4 months later (p dyadic communication at 4 months had better QOL at 8 months (p dyadic communication at 4 months and better spouse QOL at 8 months of follow-up (p = .05). No mediation effects were found. Patients' and spouses' appraisals of the illness and their dyadic communication were associated with their long-term QOL. Interventions that reduce negative appraisals of illness and promote dyadic communication may improve QOL for both patients with prostate cancer and their spouses.

  20. An Empirical Study of the Relationship between Performance Appraisal Politics and Job Satisfaction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Azman Ismail

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Performance appraisal politics are viewed as a vital human resource management issuewhere it consists of two salient features: motivational motive and punishment motive. The ability ofappraisers (e.g., immediate bosses/managers to properly implement such appraisal politics inallocating performance ratings may have significant impact on job satisfaction. Although the nature ofthis relationship is important, little is known about the role of performance appraisal politics as apredicting variable in the performance appraisal models. Therefore, this study was conducted toexamine the effect of performance appraisal politics on job satisfaction using 150 usablequestionnaires gathered from employees who have worked in a national postal company in Sarawak,Malaysia. In initial data analysis, the results of exploratory factor analysis confirmed that themeasurement scales used in this study satisfactorily met the standards of validity and reliabilityanalyses. Further, in hypothesis testing, the outcomes of stepwise regression analysis showed thatperformance appraisal politics (i.e., motivational motive and punishment motive significantlycorrelated with job satisfaction. Statistically, this result confirms that performance appraisal politicsact as important predictors of job satisfaction in the studied organization. In addition, discussion,implications and conclusion are elaborated.

  1. Estimation of value at risk and conditional value at risk using normal mixture distributions model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamaruzzaman, Zetty Ain; Isa, Zaidi

    2013-04-01

    Normal mixture distributions model has been successfully applied in financial time series analysis. In this paper, we estimate the return distribution, value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) for monthly and weekly rates of returns for FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBMKLCI) from July 1990 until July 2010 using the two component univariate normal mixture distributions model. First, we present the application of normal mixture distributions model in empirical finance where we fit our real data. Second, we present the application of normal mixture distributions model in risk analysis where we apply the normal mixture distributions model to evaluate the value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) with model validation for both risk measures. The empirical results provide evidence that using the two components normal mixture distributions model can fit the data well and can perform better in estimating value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) where it can capture the stylized facts of non-normality and leptokurtosis in returns distribution.

  2. A Hierarchal Risk Assessment Model Using the Evidential Reasoning Rule

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoxiao Ji

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to develop a hierarchical risk assessment model using the newly-developed evidential reasoning (ER rule, which constitutes a generic conjunctive probabilistic reasoning process. In this paper, we first provide a brief introduction to the basics of the ER rule and emphasize the strengths for representing and aggregating uncertain information from multiple experts and sources. Further, we discuss the key steps of developing the hierarchical risk assessment framework systematically, including (1 formulation of risk assessment hierarchy; (2 representation of both qualitative and quantitative information; (3 elicitation of attribute weights and information reliabilities; (4 aggregation of assessment information using the ER rule and (5 quantification and ranking of risks using utility-based transformation. The proposed hierarchical risk assessment framework can potentially be implemented to various complex and uncertain systems. A case study on the fire/explosion risk assessment of marine vessels demonstrates the applicability of the proposed risk assessment model.

  3. Risk Decision Making Model for Reservoir Floodwater resources Utilization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, X.

    2017-12-01

    Floodwater resources utilization(FRU) can alleviate the shortage of water resources, but there are risks. In order to safely and efficiently utilize the floodwater resources, it is necessary to study the risk of reservoir FRU. In this paper, the risk rate of exceeding the design flood water level and the risk rate of exceeding safety discharge are estimated. Based on the principle of the minimum risk and the maximum benefit of FRU, a multi-objective risk decision making model for FRU is constructed. Probability theory and mathematical statistics method is selected to calculate the risk rate; C-D production function method and emergy analysis method is selected to calculate the risk benefit; the risk loss is related to flood inundation area and unit area loss; the multi-objective decision making problem of the model is solved by the constraint method. Taking the Shilianghe reservoir in Jiangsu Province as an example, the optimal equilibrium solution of FRU of the Shilianghe reservoir is found by using the risk decision making model, and the validity and applicability of the model are verified.

  4. Managing risks in business model innovation processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Taran, Yariv; Boer, Harry; Lindgren, Peter

    2010-01-01

    Companies today, in some industries more than others, invest more capital and resources just to stay competitive, develop more diverse solutions, and increasingly start thinking more radically when considering their business models. However, despite the understanding that business model (BM...

  5. Applying Four Different Risk Models in Local Ore Selection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Richmond, Andrew

    2002-01-01

    Given the uncertainty in grade at a mine location, a financially risk-averse decision-maker may prefer to incorporate this uncertainty into the ore selection process. A FORTRAN program risksel is presented to calculate local risk-adjusted optimal ore selections using a negative exponential utility function and three dominance models: mean-variance, mean-downside risk, and stochastic dominance. All four methods are demonstrated in a grade control environment. In the case study, optimal selections range with the magnitude of financial risk that a decision-maker is prepared to accept. Except for the stochastic dominance method, the risk models reassign material from higher cost to lower cost processing options as the aversion to financial risk increases. The stochastic dominance model usually was unable to determine the optimal local selection

  6. Modeling returns volatility: Realized GARCH incorporating realized risk measure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Wei; Ruan, Qingsong; Li, Jianfeng; Li, Ye

    2018-06-01

    This study applies realized GARCH models by introducing several risk measures of intraday returns into the measurement equation, to model the daily volatility of E-mini S&P 500 index futures returns. Besides using the conventional realized measures, realized volatility and realized kernel as our benchmarks, we also use generalized realized risk measures, realized absolute deviation, and two realized tail risk measures, realized value-at-risk and realized expected shortfall. The empirical results show that realized GARCH models using the generalized realized risk measures provide better volatility estimation for the in-sample and substantial improvement in volatility forecasting for the out-of-sample. In particular, the realized expected shortfall performs best for all of the alternative realized measures. Our empirical results reveal that future volatility may be more attributable to present losses (risk measures). The results are robust to different sample estimation windows.

  7. A comprehensive Network Security Risk Model for process control networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henry, Matthew H; Haimes, Yacov Y

    2009-02-01

    The risk of cyber attacks on process control networks (PCN) is receiving significant attention due to the potentially catastrophic extent to which PCN failures can damage the infrastructures and commodity flows that they support. Risk management addresses the coupled problems of (1) reducing the likelihood that cyber attacks would succeed in disrupting PCN operation and (2) reducing the severity of consequences in the event of PCN failure or manipulation. The Network Security Risk Model (NSRM) developed in this article provides a means of evaluating the efficacy of candidate risk management policies by modeling the baseline risk and assessing expectations of risk after the implementation of candidate measures. Where existing risk models fall short of providing adequate insight into the efficacy of candidate risk management policies due to shortcomings in their structure or formulation, the NSRM provides model structure and an associated modeling methodology that captures the relevant dynamics of cyber attacks on PCN for risk analysis. This article develops the NSRM in detail in the context of an illustrative example.

  8. Test Review: Watson, G., & Glaser, E. M. (2010), "Watson-Glaser™ II Critical Thinking Appraisal." Washington State University, Pullman, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sternod, Latisha; French, Brian

    2016-01-01

    The Watson-Glaser™ II Critical Thinking Appraisal (Watson-Glaser II; Watson & Glaser, 2010) is a revised version of the "Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal®" (Watson & Glaser, 1994). The Watson-Glaser II introduces a simplified model of critical thinking, consisting of three subdimensions: recognize assumptions, evaluate…

  9. Modeling pesticide risk to California gnatcatchers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pesticides are used widely in US agriculture and may affect non-target organisms, including birds. Recently, USEPA has worked with other federal agencies, including USFWS and NMFS, to revise and strengthen methods for conducting pesticide risk assessments under section 7 of the U...

  10. Driving Strategic Risk Planning With Predictive Modelling For Managerial Accounting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Steen; Pontoppidan, Iens Christian

    for managerial accounting and shows how it can be used to determine the impact of different types of risk assessment input parameters on the variability of important outcome measures. The purpose is to: (i) point out the theoretical necessity of a stochastic risk framework; (ii) present a stochastic framework......Currently, risk management in management/managerial accounting is treated as deterministic. Although it is well-known that risk estimates are necessarily uncertain or stochastic, until recently the methodology required to handle stochastic risk-based elements appear to be impractical and too...... mathematical. The ultimate purpose of this paper is to “make the risk concept procedural and analytical” and to argue that accountants should now include stochastic risk management as a standard tool. Drawing on mathematical modelling and statistics, this paper methodically develops risk analysis approach...

  11. Predicting the cumulative risk of death during hospitalization by modeling weekend, weekday and diurnal mortality risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coiera, Enrico; Wang, Ying; Magrabi, Farah; Concha, Oscar Perez; Gallego, Blanca; Runciman, William

    2014-05-21

    Current prognostic models factor in patient and disease specific variables but do not consider cumulative risks of hospitalization over time. We developed risk models of the likelihood of death associated with cumulative exposure to hospitalization, based on time-varying risks of hospitalization over any given day, as well as day of the week. Model performance was evaluated alone, and in combination with simple disease-specific models. Patients admitted between 2000 and 2006 from 501 public and private hospitals in NSW, Australia were used for training and 2007 data for evaluation. The impact of hospital care delivered over different days of the week and or times of the day was modeled by separating hospitalization risk into 21 separate time periods (morning, day, night across the days of the week). Three models were developed to predict death up to 7-days post-discharge: 1/a simple background risk model using age, gender; 2/a time-varying risk model for exposure to hospitalization (admission time, days in hospital); 3/disease specific models (Charlson co-morbidity index, DRG). Combining these three generated a full model. Models were evaluated by accuracy, AUC, Akaike and Bayesian information criteria. There was a clear diurnal rhythm to hospital mortality in the data set, peaking in the evening, as well as the well-known 'weekend-effect' where mortality peaks with weekend admissions. Individual models had modest performance on the test data set (AUC 0.71, 0.79 and 0.79 respectively). The combined model which included time-varying risk however yielded an average AUC of 0.92. This model performed best for stays up to 7-days (93% of admissions), peaking at days 3 to 5 (AUC 0.94). Risks of hospitalization vary not just with the day of the week but also time of the day, and can be used to make predictions about the cumulative risk of death associated with an individual's hospitalization. Combining disease specific models with such time varying- estimates appears to

  12. Critical appraisal of published literature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Umesh, Goneppanavar; Karippacheril, John George; Magazine, Rahul

    2016-01-01

    With a large output of medical literature coming out every year, it is impossible for readers to read every article. Critical appraisal of scientific literature is an important skill to be mastered not only by academic medical professionals but also by those involved in clinical practice. Before incorporating changes into the management of their patients, a thorough evaluation of the current or published literature is an important step in clinical practice. It is necessary for assessing the published literature for its scientific validity and generalizability to the specific patient community and reader's work environment. Simple steps have been provided by Consolidated Standard for Reporting Trial statements, Scottish Intercollegiate Guidelines Network and several other resources which if implemented may help the reader to avoid reading flawed literature and prevent the incorporation of biased or untrustworthy information into our practice. PMID:27729695

  13. Critical appraisal of published literature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Goneppanavar Umesh

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available With a large output of medical literature coming out every year, it is impossible for readers to read every article. Critical appraisal of scientific literature is an important skill to be mastered not only by academic medical professionals but also by those involved in clinical practice. Before incorporating changes into the management of their patients, a thorough evaluation of the current or published literature is an important step in clinical practice. It is necessary for assessing the published literature for its scientific validity and generalizability to the specific patient community and reader′s work environment. Simple steps have been provided by Consolidated Standard for Reporting Trial statements, Scottish Intercollegiate Guidelines Network and several other resources which if implemented may help the reader to avoid reading flawed literature and prevent the incorporation of biased or untrustworthy information into our practice.

  14. Hierarchical Modelling of Flood Risk for Engineering Decision Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Custer, Rocco

    protection structures in the hierarchical flood protection system - is identified. To optimise the design of protection structures, fragility and vulnerability models must allow for consideration of decision alternatives. While such vulnerability models are available for large protection structures (e...... systems, as well as the implementation of the flood risk analysis methodology and the vulnerability modelling approach are illustrated with an example application. In summary, the present thesis provides a characterisation of hierarchical flood protection systems as well as several methodologies to model...... and robust. Traditional risk management solutions, e.g. dike construction, are not particularly flexible, as they are difficult to adapt to changing risk. Conversely, the recent concept of integrated flood risk management, entailing a combination of several structural and non-structural risk management...

  15. A software quality model and metrics for risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hyatt, L.; Rosenberg, L.

    1996-01-01

    A software quality model and its associated attributes are defined and used as the model for the basis for a discussion on risk. Specific quality goals and attributes are selected based on their importance to a software development project and their ability to be quantified. Risks that can be determined by the model's metrics are identified. A core set of metrics relating to the software development process and its products is defined. Measurements for each metric and their usability and applicability are discussed.

  16. Recursive inter-generational utility in global climate risk modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Minh, Ha-Duong [Centre International de Recherche sur l' Environnement et le Developpement (CIRED-CNRS), 75 - Paris (France); Treich, N. [Institut National de Recherches Agronomiques (INRA-LEERNA), 31 - Toulouse (France)

    2003-07-01

    This paper distinguishes relative risk aversion and resistance to inter-temporal substitution in climate risk modeling. Stochastic recursive preferences are introduced in a stylized numeric climate-economy model using preliminary IPCC 1998 scenarios. It shows that higher risk aversion increases the optimal carbon tax. Higher resistance to inter-temporal substitution alone has the same effect as increasing the discount rate, provided that the risk is not too large. We discuss implications of these findings for the debate upon discounting and sustainability under uncertainty. (author)

  17. The Effects of Parental Depressive Symptoms, Appraisals, and Physical Punishment on Later Child Externalizing Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Callender, Kevin A.; Olson, Sheryl L.; Choe, Daniel E.; Sameroff, Arnold J.

    2012-01-01

    Examined a cognitive-behavioral pathway by which depressive symptoms in mothers and fathers increase risk for later child externalizing problem behavior via parents' appraisals of child behavior and physical discipline. Participants were 245 children (118 girls) at risk for school-age conduct problems, and their parents and teachers. Children were…

  18. Mindfulness Training Targets Neurocognitive Mechanisms of Addiction at the Attention-Appraisal-Emotion Interface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garland, Eric L.; Froeliger, Brett; Howard, Matthew O.

    2014-01-01

    Prominent neuroscience models suggest that addictive behavior occurs when environmental stressors and drug-relevant cues activate a cycle of cognitive, affective, and psychophysiological mechanisms, including dysregulated interactions between bottom-up and top-down neural processes, that compel the user to seek out and use drugs. Mindfulness-based interventions (MBIs) target pathogenic mechanisms of the risk chain linking stress and addiction. This review describes how MBIs may target neurocognitive mechanisms of addiction at the attention-appraisal-emotion interface. Empirical evidence is presented suggesting that MBIs ameliorate addiction by enhancing cognitive regulation of a number of key processes, including: clarifying cognitive appraisal and modulating negative emotions to reduce perseverative cognition and emotional arousal; enhancing metacognitive awareness to regulate drug-use action schema and decrease addiction attentional bias; promoting extinction learning to uncouple drug-use triggers from conditioned appetitive responses; reducing cue-reactivity and increasing cognitive control over craving; attenuating physiological stress reactivity through parasympathetic activation; and increasing savoring to restore natural reward processing. Treatment and research implications of our neurocognitive framework are presented. We conclude by offering a temporally sequenced description of neurocognitive processes targeted by MBIs through a hypothetical case study. Our neurocognitive framework has implications for the optimization of addiction treatment with MBIs. PMID:24454293

  19. Appraisal of transplant-related stressors, coping strategies, and psychosocial adjustment following kidney transplantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pisanti, Renato; Lombardo, Caterina; Luszczynska, Aleksandra; Poli, Luca; Bennardi, Linda; Giordanengo, Luca; Berloco, Pasquale Bartolomeo; Violani, Cristiano

    2017-10-01

    This study examined the relations between appraisal of transplant-related stressors, coping, and adjustment dimensions following kidney transplantation (KT). Two models were tested: (1) the main effects model proposing that stress appraisal and coping strategies are directly associated with adjustment dimensions; and (2) the moderating model of stress proposing that each coping strategy interacts with stress appraisal. Importantly, there is a lack of research examining the two models simultaneously among recipients of solid organ transplantation. A total of 174 KT recipients completed the questionnaires. Predictors of post-transplant adjustment included appraisal of transplant-related stressors and coping strategies (task-, emotion-, and avoidance-focused). Adjustment dimensions were psychological distress, worries about the transplant, feelings of guilt, fear of disclosure of transplant, adherence, and responsibility for the functioning of the new organ. The main and moderating effects were tested with regression analyses. Appraisal of transplant-related stressors and emotion-oriented coping were related to all adjustment dimensions, except of adherence and responsibility. Task-oriented coping was positively related to responsibility. Avoidance-oriented coping was negatively correlated with adherence. Only 1 out of 18 hypothesized interactive terms was significant, yielding a synergistic interaction between appraisal of transplant-related stressors and emotion-oriented coping on the sense of guilt. The findings have the potential to inform interventions promoting psychosocial adjustment among KT recipients. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  20. Critical appraisal skills training for health care professionals: a randomized controlled trial [ISRCTN46272378

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ewings Paul E

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Introduction Critical appraisal skills are believed to play a central role in an evidence-based approach to health practice. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness and costs of a critical appraisal skills educational intervention aimed at health care professionals. Methods This prospective controlled trial randomized 145 self-selected general practitioners, hospital physicians, professions allied to medicine, and healthcare managers/administrators from the South West of England to a half-day critical appraisal skills training workshop (based on the model of problem-based small group learning or waiting list control. The following outcomes were assessed at 6-months follow up: knowledge of the principles necessary for appraising evidence; attitudes towards the use of evidence about healthcare; evidence seeking behaviour; perceived confidence in appraising evidence; and ability to critically appraise a systematic review article. Results At follow up overall knowledge score [mean difference: 2.6 (95% CI: 0.6 to 4.6] and ability to appraise the results of a systematic review [mean difference: 1.2 (95% CI: 0.01 to 2.4] were higher in the critical skills training group compared to control. No statistical significant differences in overall attitude towards evidence, evidence seeking behaviour, perceived confidence, and other areas of critical appraisal skills ability (methodology or generalizability were observed between groups. Taking into account the workshop provision costs and costs of participants time and expenses of participants, the average cost of providing the critical appraisal workshops was approximately £250 per person. Conclusions The findings of this study challenge the policy of funding 'one-off' educational interventions aimed at enhancing the evidence-based practice of health care professionals. Future evaluations of evidence-based practice interventions need to take in account this trial's negative findings

  1. The Application of Asymmetric Liquidity Risk Measure in Modelling the Risk of Investment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Garsztka Przemysław

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The article analyses the relationship between investment risk (as measured by the variance of returns or standard deviation of returns and liquidity risk. The paper presents a method for calculating a new measure of liquidity risk, based on the characteristic line. In addition, it is checked what is the impact of liquidity risk to the volatility of daily returns. To describe this relationship dynamic econometric models were used. It was found that there was an econometric relationship between the proposed measure liquidity risk and the variance of returns.

  2. Mechanistic modeling of insecticide risks to breeding birds in ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Insecticide usage in the United States is ubiquitous in urban, suburban, and rural environments. In evaluating data for an insecticide registration application and for registration review, scientists at the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) assess the fate of the insecticide and the risk the insecticide poses to the environment and non-target wildlife. At the present time, current USEPA risk assessments do not include population-level endpoints. In this paper, we present a new mechanistic model, which allows risk assessors to estimate the effects of insecticide exposure on the survival and seasonal productivity of birds known to use agricultural fields during their breeding season. The new model was created from two existing USEPA avian risk assessment models, the Terrestrial Investigation Model (TIM v.3.0) and the Markov Chain Nest Productivity model (MCnest). The integrated TIM/MCnest model has been applied to assess the relative risk of 12 insecticides used to control corn pests on a suite of 31 avian species known to use cornfields in midwestern agroecosystems. The 12 insecticides that were assessed in this study are all used to treat major pests of corn (corn root worm borer, cutworm, and armyworm). After running the integrated TIM/MCnest model, we found extensive differences in risk to birds among insecticides, with chlorpyrifos and malathion (organophosphates) generally posing the greatest risk, and bifenthrin and ë-cyhalothrin (

  3. Risk Based Milk Pricing Model at Dairy Farmers Level

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Septiani

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The milk price from a cooperative institution to farmer does not fully cover the production cost. Though, dairy farmers encounter various risks and uncertainties in conducting their business. The highest risk in milk supply lies in the activities at the farm. This study was designed to formulate a model for calculating milk price at farmer’s level based on risk. Risks that occur on farms include the risk of cow breeding, sanitation, health care, cattle feed management, milking and milk sales. This research used the location of the farm in West Java region. There were five main stages in the preparation of this model, (1 identification and analysis of influential factors, (2 development of a conceptual model, (3 structural analysis and the amount of production costs, (4 model calculation of production cost with risk factors, and (5 risk based milk pricing model. This research built a relationship between risks on smallholder dairy farms with the production costs to be incurred by the farmers. It was also obtained the formulation of risk adjustment factor calculation for the variable costs of production in dairy cattle farm. The difference in production costs with risk and the total production cost without risk was about 8% to 10%. It could be concluded that the basic price of milk proposed based on the research was around IDR 4,250-IDR 4,350/L for 3 to 4 cows ownership. Increasing farmer income was expected to be obtained by entering the value of this risk in the calculation of production costs. 

  4. Achievement Goals, Competition Appraisals, and the Psychological and Emotional Welfare of Sport Participants

    OpenAIRE

    Adie, James W; Duda, Joan L; Ntoumanis, Nikos

    2008-01-01

    Grounded in the 2 × 2 achievement goal framework (Elliot & McGregor, 2001), a model was tested examining the hypothesized relationships between approach and avoidance (mastery and performance) goals, challenge and threat appraisals of sport competition, and positive and negative indices of well-being (i.e., self-esteem, positive, and negative affect). A further aim was to determine the degree to which the cognitive appraisals mediated the relationship between the four achievement goals and th...

  5. A Hybrid Tsunami Risk Model for Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haseemkunju, A. V.; Smith, D. F.; Khater, M.; Khemici, O.; Betov, B.; Scott, J.

    2014-12-01

    Around the margins of the Pacific Ocean, denser oceanic plates slipping under continental plates cause subduction earthquakes generating large tsunami waves. The subducting Pacific and Philippine Sea plates create damaging interplate earthquakes followed by huge tsunami waves. It was a rupture of the Japan Trench subduction zone (JTSZ) and the resultant M9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake that caused the unprecedented tsunami along the Pacific coast of Japan on March 11, 2011. EQECAT's Japan Earthquake model is a fully probabilistic model which includes a seismo-tectonic model describing the geometries, magnitudes, and frequencies of all potential earthquake events; a ground motion model; and a tsunami model. Within the much larger set of all modeled earthquake events, fault rupture parameters for about 24000 stochastic and 25 historical tsunamigenic earthquake events are defined to simulate tsunami footprints using the numerical tsunami model COMCOT. A hybrid approach using COMCOT simulated tsunami waves is used to generate inundation footprints, including the impact of tides and flood defenses. Modeled tsunami waves of major historical events are validated against observed data. Modeled tsunami flood depths on 30 m grids together with tsunami vulnerability and financial models are then used to estimate insured loss in Japan from the 2011 tsunami. The primary direct report of damage from the 2011 tsunami is in terms of the number of buildings damaged by municipality in the tsunami affected area. Modeled loss in Japan from the 2011 tsunami is proportional to the number of buildings damaged. A 1000-year return period map of tsunami waves shows high hazard along the west coast of southern Honshu, on the Pacific coast of Shikoku, and on the east coast of Kyushu, primarily associated with major earthquake events on the Nankai Trough subduction zone (NTSZ). The highest tsunami hazard of more than 20m is seen on the Sanriku coast in northern Honshu, associated with the JTSZ.

  6. The Role of Performance Appraisals in Motivating Employees

    OpenAIRE

    Jurjen J.A. Kamphorst; Otto H. Swank

    2012-01-01

    textabstractIn many organizations, reward decisions depend on subjective performance evaluations. However, evaluating an employee's performance is often difficult. In this paper, we develop a model in which the employee is uncertain about his own performance and about the manager's ability to assess him. The manager gives an employee a performance appraisal with a view of affecting the employee's self perception, and the employee's perception of the manager's ability to assess performance. We...

  7. Methods and models used in comparative risk studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Devooght, J.

    1983-01-01

    Comparative risk studies make use of a large number of methods and models based upon a set of assumptions incompletely formulated or of value judgements. Owing to the multidimensionality of risks and benefits, the economic and social context may notably influence the final result. Five classes of models are briefly reviewed: accounting of fluxes of effluents, radiation and energy; transport models and health effects; systems reliability and bayesian analysis; economic analysis of reliability and cost-risk-benefit analysis; decision theory in presence of uncertainty and multiple objectives. Purpose and prospect of comparative studies are assessed in view of probable diminishing returns for large generic comparisons [fr

  8. Literature Review on Modeling Cyber Networks and Evaluating Cyber Risks.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kelic, Andjelka; Campbell, Philip L

    2018-04-01

    The National Infrastructure Simulations and Analysis Center (NISAC) conducted a literature review on modeling cyber networks and evaluating cyber risks. The literature review explores where modeling is used in the cyber regime and ways that consequence and risk are evaluated. The relevant literature clusters in three different spaces: network security, cyber-physical, and mission assurance. In all approaches, some form of modeling is utilized at varying levels of detail, while the ability to understand consequence varies, as do interpretations of risk. This document summarizes the different literature viewpoints and explores their applicability to securing enterprise networks.

  9. The Tripartite Model of Risk Perception (TRIRISK): Distinguishing Deliberative, Affective, and Experiential Components of Perceived Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrer, Rebecca A; Klein, William M P; Persoskie, Alexander; Avishai-Yitshak, Aya; Sheeran, Paschal

    2016-10-01

    Although risk perception is a key predictor in health behavior theories, current conceptions of risk comprise only one (deliberative) or two (deliberative vs. affective/experiential) dimensions. This research tested a tripartite model that distinguishes among deliberative, affective, and experiential components of risk perception. In two studies, and in relation to three common diseases (cancer, heart disease, diabetes), we used confirmatory factor analyses to examine the factor structure of the tripartite risk perception (TRIRISK) model and compared the fit of the TRIRISK model to dual-factor and single-factor models. In a third study, we assessed concurrent validity by examining the impact of cancer diagnosis on (a) levels of deliberative, affective, and experiential risk perception, and (b) the strength of relations among risk components, and tested predictive validity by assessing relations with behavioral intentions to prevent cancer. The tripartite factor structure was supported, producing better model fit across diseases (studies 1 and 2). Inter-correlations among the components were significantly smaller among participants who had been diagnosed with cancer, suggesting that affected populations make finer-grained distinctions among risk perceptions (study 3). Moreover, all three risk perception components predicted unique variance in intentions to engage in preventive behavior (study 3). The TRIRISK model offers both a novel conceptualization of health-related risk perceptions, and new measures that enhance predictive validity beyond that engendered by unidimensional and bidimensional models. The present findings have implications for the ways in which risk perceptions are targeted in health behavior change interventions, health communications, and decision aids.

  10. Quantified Risk Ranking Model for Condition-Based Risk and Reliability Centered Maintenance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chattopadhyaya, Pradip Kumar; Basu, Sushil Kumar; Majumdar, Manik Chandra

    2017-06-01

    In the recent past, risk and reliability centered maintenance (RRCM) framework is introduced with a shift in the methodological focus from reliability and probabilities (expected values) to reliability, uncertainty and risk. In this paper authors explain a novel methodology for risk quantification and ranking the critical items for prioritizing the maintenance actions on the basis of condition-based risk and reliability centered maintenance (CBRRCM). The critical items are identified through criticality analysis of RPN values of items of a system and the maintenance significant precipitating factors (MSPF) of items are evaluated. The criticality of risk is assessed using three risk coefficients. The likelihood risk coefficient treats the probability as a fuzzy number. The abstract risk coefficient deduces risk influenced by uncertainty, sensitivity besides other factors. The third risk coefficient is called hazardous risk coefficient, which is due to anticipated hazards which may occur in the future and the risk is deduced from criteria of consequences on safety, environment, maintenance and economic risks with corresponding cost for consequences. The characteristic values of all the three risk coefficients are obtained with a particular test. With few more tests on the system, the values may change significantly within controlling range of each coefficient, hence `random number simulation' is resorted to obtain one distinctive value for each coefficient. The risk coefficients are statistically added to obtain final risk coefficient of each critical item and then the final rankings of critical items are estimated. The prioritization in ranking of critical items using the developed mathematical model for risk assessment shall be useful in optimization of financial losses and timing of maintenance actions.

  11. Formal Modeling and Verification of Opportunity-enabled Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Aldini, Alessandro; Seigneur, Jean-Marc; Ballester Lafuente, Carlos; Titi, Xavier; Guislain, Jonathan

    2015-01-01

    With the advent of the Bring-Your-Own-Device (BYOD) trend, mobile work is achieving a widespread diffusion that challenges the traditional view of security standard and risk management. A recently proposed model, called opportunity-enabled risk management (OPPRIM), aims at balancing the analysis of the major threats that arise in the BYOD setting with the analysis of the potential increased opportunities emerging in such an environment, by combining mechanisms of risk estimation with trust an...

  12. Risk and Management Control: A Partial Least Square Modelling Approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Steen; Pontoppidan, Iens Christian

    Risk and economic theory goes many year back (e.g. to Keynes & Knight 1921) and risk/uncertainty belong to one of the explanations for the existence of the firm (Coarse, 1937). The present financial crisis going on in the past years have re-accentuated risk and the need of coherence...... and interrelations between risk and areas within management accounting. The idea is that management accounting should be able to conduct a valid feed forward but also predictions for decision making including risk. This study reports the test of a theoretical model using partial least squares (PLS) on survey data...... and a external attitude dimension. The results have important implications for both management control research and for the management control systems design for the way accountants consider the element of risk in their different tasks, both operational and strategic. Specifically, it seems that different risk...

  13. 12 CFR 564.4 - Minimum appraisal standards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 5 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Minimum appraisal standards. 564.4 Section 564.4 Banks and Banking OFFICE OF THRIFT SUPERVISION, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY APPRAISALS § 564.4 Minimum appraisal standards. For federally related transactions, all appraisals shall, at a minimum: (a...

  14. 9 CFR 52.3 - Appraisal of swine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... an APHIS employee alone. (b) The appraisal of swine will be based on the fair market value as determined by the meat or breeding value of the animals. Animals may be appraised in groups, provided that where appraisal is by the head, each animal in the group is the same value per head, and where appraisal...

  15. A Duality Result for the Generalized Erlang Risk Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lanpeng Ji

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available In this article, we consider the generalized Erlang risk model and its dual model. By using a conditional measure-preserving correspondence between the two models, we derive an identity for two interesting conditional probabilities. Applications to the discounted joint density of the surplus prior to ruin and the deficit at ruin are also discussed.

  16. Reducing organizational politics in performance appraisal: the role of coaching leaders in appraising age-diverse employees

    OpenAIRE

    Dello Russo, S.; Miraglia, M.; Borgogni, L.

    2017-01-01

    WOS:000410769200004 (Nº de Acesso Web of Science) We examined whether a supervisor’s coaching leadership style predicts the perception of organizational politics in performance appraisal (OPPA) reported by the collaborators. Additionally, we drew on social cognition and motivational lifespan development theories to hypothesize age-related differences in perceived OPPA and its link with the coaching leadership style. Using hierarchical linear modeling (HLM) on a sample of 576 employees and ...

  17. A semi-quantitative model for risk appreciation and risk weighing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bos, Peter M.J.; Boon, Polly E.; van der Voet, Hilko

    2009-01-01

    Risk managers need detailed information on (1) the type of effect, (2) the size (severity) of the expected effect(s) and (3) the fraction of the population at risk to decide on well-balanced risk reduction measures. A previously developed integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) model...... provides quantitative information on these three parameters. A semi-quantitative tool is presented that combines information on these parameters into easy-readable charts that will facilitate risk evaluations of exposure situations and decisions on risk reduction measures. This tool is based on a concept...... detailed information on the estimated health impact in a given exposure situation. These graphs will facilitate the discussions on appropriate risk reduction measures to be taken....

  18. Dynamic occupational risk model for offshore operations in harsh environments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Song, Guozheng; Khan, Faisal; Wang, Hangzhou; Leighton, Shelly; Yuan, Zhi; Liu, Hanwen

    2016-01-01

    The expansion of offshore oil exploitation into remote areas (e.g., Arctic) with harsh environments has significantly increased occupational risks. Among occupational accidents, slips, trips and falls from height (STFs) account for a significant portion. Thus, a dynamic risk assessment of the three main occupational accidents is meaningful to decrease offshore occupational risks. Bow-tie Models (BTs) were established in this study for the risk analysis of STFs considering extreme environmental factors. To relax the limitations of BTs, Bayesian networks (BNs) were developed based on BTs to dynamically assess risks of STFs. The occurrence and consequence probabilities of STFs were respectively calculated using BTs and BNs, and the obtained probabilities verified BNs' rationality and advantage. Furthermore, the probability adaptation for STFs was accomplished in a specific scenario with BNs. Finally, posterior probabilities of basic events were achieved through diagnostic analysis, and critical basic events were analyzed based on their posterior likelihood to cause occupational accidents. The highlight is systematically analyzing STF accidents for offshore operations and dynamically assessing their risks considering the harsh environmental factors. This study can guide the allocation of prevention resources and benefit the safety management of offshore operations. - Highlights: • A novel dynamic risk model for occupational accidents. • First time consideration of harsh environment in occupational accident modeling. • A Bayesian network based model for risk management strategies.

  19. Risk Prediction Models for Other Cancers or Multiple Sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing other multiple cancers over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  20. A flexible model for actuarial risks under dependence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Albers, Willem/Wim; Kallenberg, W.C.M.; Lukocius, V.

    Methods for computing risk measures, such as stop-loss premiums, tacitly assume independence of the underlying individual risks. This can lead to huge errors even when only small dependencies occur. In the present paper, a general model is developed which covers what happens in practice in a

  1. Risk prediction model: Statistical and artificial neural network approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paiman, Nuur Azreen; Hariri, Azian; Masood, Ibrahim

    2017-04-01

    Prediction models are increasingly gaining popularity and had been used in numerous areas of studies to complement and fulfilled clinical reasoning and decision making nowadays. The adoption of such models assist physician's decision making, individual's behavior, and consequently improve individual outcomes and the cost-effectiveness of care. The objective of this paper is to reviewed articles related to risk prediction model in order to understand the suitable approach, development and the validation process of risk prediction model. A qualitative review of the aims, methods and significant main outcomes of the nineteen published articles that developed risk prediction models from numerous fields were done. This paper also reviewed on how researchers develop and validate the risk prediction models based on statistical and artificial neural network approach. From the review done, some methodological recommendation in developing and validating the prediction model were highlighted. According to studies that had been done, artificial neural network approached in developing the prediction model were more accurate compared to statistical approach. However currently, only limited published literature discussed on which approach is more accurate for risk prediction model development.

  2. Using functional analysis in archival appraisal a practical and effective alternative to traditional appraisal methodologies

    CERN Document Server

    Robyns, Marcus C

    2014-01-01

    In an age of scarcity and the challenge of electronic records, can archivists and records managers continue to rely upon traditional methodology essentially unchanged since the early 1950s? Using Functional Analysis in Archival Appraisal: A Practical and Effective Alternative to Traditional Appraisal Methodologies shows how archivists in other countries are already using functional analysis, which offers a better, more effective, and imminently more practical alternative to traditional appraisal methodologies that rely upon an analysis of the records themselves.

  3. A value-based, no-cost-to-patient health model in the developing world: Critical appraisal of a unique patient-centric neurosurgery unit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thakar, Sumit; Dadlani, Ravi; Sivaraju, Laxminadh; Aryan, Saritha; Mohan, Dilip; Sai Kiran, Narayanam Anantha; Rajarathnam, Ravikiran; Shyam, Maya; Sadanand, Venkatraman; Hegde, Alangar S

    2015-01-01

    It is well-accepted that the current healthcare scenario worldwide is due for a radical change, given that it is fraught with mounting costs and varying quality. Various modifications in health policies have been instituted toward this end. An alternative model, the low-cost, value-based health model, focuses on maximizing value for patients by moving away from a physician-centered, supply-driven system to a patient-centered system. The authors discuss the successful inception, functioning, sustainability, and replicability of a novel health model in neurosurgery built and sustained by inspired humanitarianism and that provides all treatment at no cost to the patients irrespective of their socioeconomic strata, color or creed. The Sri Sathya Sai Institute of Higher Medical Sciences (SSSIHMS) at Whitefield, Bengaluru, India, a private charitable hospital established in 2001, functions on the ideals of providing free state-of-the-art healthcare to all in a compassionate and holistic manner. With modern equipment and respectable outcome benchmarks, its neurosurgery unit has operated on around 18,000 patients since its inception, and as such, has contributed INR 5310 million (USD 88.5 million) to society from an economic standpoint. The inception and sustainability of the SSSIHMS model are based on self-perpetuating philanthropy, a cost-conscious culture and the dissemination of human values. Replicated worldwide, at least in the developing nations, this unique healthcare model may well change the face of healthcare economics.

  4. ECONOMICS AND APPRAISAL OF CONVENTIONAL OIL AND GAS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Attanasi, E.D.; Haynes, John L.

    1984-01-01

    The oil and gas industry frequently appraises undiscovered oil and gas resources on a regional basis to decide whether to start or continue exploration programs. The appraisals are of little value unless conditioned by estimates of the costs of finding and producing the resources. This paper presents an economic appraisal of undiscovered oil and gas resources in the western Gulf of Mexico. Also presented are a description of the model used to make the assessment, results of a sensitivity analysis, and a discussion of the implications of the results to the industry. The appraisal is shown to be relatively robust to changes in physical and engineering assumptions. Because the number of commercial discoveries was found to be quite sensitive to economic conditions, the analysis has important implications in terms of forecasting future industry drilling and other associated activities in the western Gulf of Mexico.

  5. Injury prevention risk communication: A mental models approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Austin, Laurel Cecelia; Fischhoff, Baruch

    2012-01-01

    fail to see risks, do not make use of available protective interventions or misjudge the effectiveness of protective measures. If these misunderstandings can be reduced through context-appropriate risk communications, then their improved mental models may help people to engage more effectively...... and create an expert model of the risk situation, interviewing lay people to elicit their comparable mental models, and developing and evaluating communication interventions designed to close the gaps between lay people and experts. This paper reviews the theory and method behind this research stream...... interventions on the most critical opportunities to reduce risks. That research often seeks to identify the ‘mental models’ that underlie individuals' interpretations of their circumstances and the outcomes of possible actions. In the context of injury prevention, a mental models approach would ask why people...

  6. Risk attitudes in a changing environment: An evolutionary model of the fourfold pattern of risk preferences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mallpress, Dave E W; Fawcett, Tim W; Houston, Alasdair I; McNamara, John M

    2015-04-01

    A striking feature of human decision making is the fourfold pattern of risk attitudes, involving risk-averse behavior in situations of unlikely losses and likely gains, but risk-seeking behavior in response to likely losses and unlikely gains. Current theories to explain this pattern assume particular psychological processes to reproduce empirical observations, but do not address whether it is adaptive for the decision maker to respond to risk in this way. Here, drawing on insights from behavioral ecology, we build an evolutionary model of risk-sensitive behavior, to investigate whether particular types of environmental conditions could favor a fourfold pattern of risk attitudes. We consider an individual foraging in a changing environment, where energy is needed to prevent starvation and build up reserves for reproduction. The outcome, in terms of reproductive value (a rigorous measure of evolutionary success), of a one-off choice between a risky and a safe gain, or between a risky and a safe loss, determines the risk-sensitive behavior we should expect to see in this environment. Our results show that the fourfold pattern of risk attitudes may be adaptive in an environment in which conditions vary stochastically but are autocorrelated in time. In such an environment the current options provide information about the likely environmental conditions in the future, which affect the optimal pattern of risk sensitivity. Our model predicts that risk preferences should be both path dependent and affected by the decision maker's current state. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  7. Modeling Exposure to Persistent Chemicals in Hazard and Risk Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cowan-Ellsberry, Christina E.; McLachlan, Michael S.; Arnot, Jon A.; MacLeod, Matthew; McKone, Thomas E.; Wania, Frank

    2008-11-01

    Fate and exposure modeling has not thus far been explicitly used in the risk profile documents prepared to evaluate significant adverse effect of candidate chemicals for either the Stockholm Convention or the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution. However, we believe models have considerable potential to improve the risk profiles. Fate and exposure models are already used routinely in other similar regulatory applications to inform decisions, and they have been instrumental in building our current understanding of the fate of POP and PBT chemicals in the environment. The goal of this paper is to motivate the use of fate and exposure models in preparing risk profiles in the POP assessment procedure by providing strategies for incorporating and using models. The ways that fate and exposure models can be used to improve and inform the development of risk profiles include: (1) Benchmarking the ratio of exposure and emissions of candidate chemicals to the same ratio for known POPs, thereby opening the possibility of combining this ratio with the relative emissions and relative toxicity to arrive at a measure of relative risk. (2) Directly estimating the exposure of the environment, biota and humans to provide information to complement measurements, or where measurements are not available or are limited. (3) To identify the key processes and chemical and/or environmental parameters that determine the exposure; thereby allowing the effective prioritization of research or measurements to improve the risk profile. (4) Predicting future time trends including how quickly exposure levels in remote areas would respond to reductions in emissions. Currently there is no standardized consensus model for use in the risk profile context. Therefore, to choose the appropriate model the risk profile developer must evaluate how appropriate an existing model is for a specific setting and whether the assumptions and input data are relevant in the context of the application

  8. Modeling exposure to persistent chemicals in hazard and risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cowan-Ellsberry, Christina E; McLachlan, Michael S; Arnot, Jon A; Macleod, Matthew; McKone, Thomas E; Wania, Frank

    2009-10-01

    Fate and exposure modeling has not, thus far, been explicitly used in the risk profile documents prepared for evaluating the significant adverse effect of candidate chemicals for either the Stockholm Convention or the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution. However, we believe models have considerable potential to improve the risk profiles. Fate and exposure models are already used routinely in other similar regulatory applications to inform decisions, and they have been instrumental in building our current understanding of the fate of persistent organic pollutants (POP) and persistent, bioaccumulative, and toxic (PBT) chemicals in the environment. The goal of this publication is to motivate the use of fate and exposure models in preparing risk profiles in the POP assessment procedure by providing strategies for incorporating and using models. The ways that fate and exposure models can be used to improve and inform the development of risk profiles include 1) benchmarking the ratio of exposure and emissions of candidate chemicals to the same ratio for known POPs, thereby opening the possibility of combining this ratio with the relative emissions and relative toxicity to arrive at a measure of relative risk; 2) directly estimating the exposure of the environment, biota, and humans to provide information to complement measurements or where measurements are not available or are limited; 3) to identify the key processes and chemical or environmental parameters that determine the exposure, thereby allowing the effective prioritization of research or measurements to improve the risk profile; and 4) forecasting future time trends, including how quickly exposure levels in remote areas would respond to reductions in emissions. Currently there is no standardized consensus model for use in the risk profile context. Therefore, to choose the appropriate model the risk profile developer must evaluate how appropriate an existing model is for a specific setting and

  9. Modelling and propagation of uncertainties in the German Risk Study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hofer, E.; Krzykacz, B.

    1982-01-01

    Risk assessments are generally subject to uncertainty considerations. This is because of the various estimates that are involved. The paper points out those estimates in the so-called phase A of the German Risk Study, for which uncertainties were quantified. It explains the probabilistic models applied in the assessment to their impact on the findings of the study. Finally the resulting subjective confidence intervals of the study results are presented and their sensitivity to these probabilistic models is investigated

  10. 32 CFR 644.42 - Appraisal report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... appraisal report shall be divided into four parts as outlined below: PART I—INTRODUCTION 1. TITLE PAGE. This... photograph. The use of color film and photographs is encouraged, especially wherein development cost either...

  11. Theoretical foundations of shareholders' right to appraisal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vasiljević Mirko

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Shareholders' right to appraisal represents a controversial topic of corporation law, which is why a relatively small number of countries accept it. In this article, the authors analyze the goals that are supposed to be achieved with the introduction of shareholders' appraisal rights. In this respect, traditional and modern explanations for the introduction or maintaining of this right have been presented. In the second part of this article, shareholders' right to appraisal has been critically examined, mostly from corporations' perspective. Afterwards, several potential causes of inefficiency of using this right have been identified. Perceiving pros and cons of shareholders' right to appraisal is of particular importance for Serbia, in order to draw a conclusion about harmonization of our legislative solutions with the theoretical foundations of this right.

  12. Nuclear power investment risk economic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Postula, F.D.; Houghton, W.J.

    1986-01-01

    This paper describes the economic model which was developed to evaluate the net costs incurred by an owner due to an accident induced outage at a nuclear power plant. During such an outage, the portion of the plant operating costs associated with power production are saved; however the owner faces a sizable expense as fossil fuels are burned as a substitute for power from the incapacitated nuclear plant. Additional expenses are incurred by the owner for plant repair and, if necessary, decontamination cost. The model makes provision for mitigating these costs by sales of power, property damage insurance payments, tax write-offs and increased rates

  13. Comparison of models used for ecological risk assessment and human health risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ryti, R.T.; Gallegos, A.F.

    1994-01-01

    Models are used to derive action levels for site screening, or to estimate potential ecological or human health risks posed by potentially hazardous sites. At the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), which is RCRA-regulated, the human-health screening action levels are based on hazardous constituents described in RCRA Subpart S and RESRAD-derived soil guidelines (based on 10 mRem/year) for radiological constituents. Also, an ecological risk screening model was developed for a former firing site, where the primary constituents include depleted uranium, beryllium and lead. Sites that fail the screening models are evaluated with site-specific human risk assessment (using RESRAD and other approaches) and a detailed ecological effect model (ECOTRAN). ECOTRAN is based on pharmacokinetics transport modeling within a multitrophic-level biological-growth dynamics model. ECOTRAN provides detailed temporal records of contaminant concentrations in biota, and annual averages of these body burdens are compared to equivalent site-specific runs of the RESRAD model. The results show that thoughtful interpretation of the results of these models must be applied before they can be used for evaluation of current risk posed by sites and the benefits of various remedial options. This presentation compares the concentrations of biological media in the RESRAD screening runs to the concentrations in ecological endpoints predicted by the ecological screening model. The assumptions and limitations of these screening models and the decision process where these are screening models are applied are discussed

  14. Appraisal on the wound healing activity of different extracts obtained from Aegle marmelos and Mucuna pruriens by in vivo experimental models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toppo, F A; Pawar, R S

    2016-01-01

    The use of a simple and reproducible model is inevitable for an objective statement of the effects of external factors on wound healing. Hence, the present study was conducted to evaluate wound healing activities of sequential different extracts of Aegle marmelos leaves (AM) and Mucuna pruriens seeds (MP) by in vivo experimental models. Wistar albino rats were subjected to excision, incision and dead space wounds measuring approximately 250 mm2, 3 cm and implanting sterilized polyvinyl chloride tube on the back of each rat near either side of the vertebral column respectively. The experimental animals were randomized into eight groups (n = 6), control, standard and treatment groups. Hydrogel of different extracts were applied topically once daily. The parameters observed were percentage of wound contraction, epithelization period, tensile strength, hydroxyproline content of the granulation tissue, and histological changes during wound healing. The statistical study revealed that in excision, incision, and dead space wound models all formulations have significant (P < 0.01) wound healing potential. However, methanolic extract formulation was found to be superior to all other treatments as evidenced by rapid wound contraction, lesser number of days required for complete epithelization, increased tensile strength and significant increase in hydroxyproline content. As compared to the reference standard treated group the wound healing process of the experimental groups was decelerated. All extracts obtained from AM and MP facilitated the wound healing process in all experimental models.

  15. A Corrosion Risk Assessment Model for Underground Piping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Datta, Koushik; Fraser, Douglas R.

    2009-01-01

    The Pressure Systems Manager at NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) has embarked on a project to collect data and develop risk assessment models to support risk-informed decision making regarding future inspections of underground pipes at ARC. This paper shows progress in one area of this project - a corrosion risk assessment model for the underground high-pressure air distribution piping system at ARC. It consists of a Corrosion Model of pipe-segments, a Pipe Wrap Protection Model; and a Pipe Stress Model for a pipe segment. A Monte Carlo simulation of the combined models provides a distribution of the failure probabilities. Sensitivity study results show that the model uncertainty, or lack of knowledge, is the dominant contributor to the calculated unreliability of the underground piping system. As a result, the Pressure Systems Manager may consider investing resources specifically focused on reducing these uncertainties. Future work includes completing the data collection effort for the existing ground based pressure systems and applying the risk models to risk-based inspection strategies of the underground pipes at ARC.

  16. Critical appraisal of first-generation renal tumor complexity scoring systems: Creation of a second-generation model of tumor complexity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tobert, Conrad M; Shoemaker, Allen; Kahnoski, Richard J; Lane, Brian R

    2015-04-01

    To investigate whether a combination of variables from each nephrometry system improves performance. There are 3 first-generation systems that quantify tumor complexity: R.E.N.A.L. nephrometry score (RNS), preoperative aspects and dimensions used for an anatomical (PADUA) classification (PC), and centrality index (CI). Although each has been subjected to validation and comparative analysis, to our knowledge, no work has been done to combine variables from each method to optimize their performance. Scores were assigned to each of 276 patients undergoing partial nephrectomy (PN) or radical nephrectomy (RN). Individual components of all 3 systems were evaluated in multivariable logistic regression analysis of surgery type (PN vs. RN) and combined into a "second-generation model." In multivariable analysis, each scoring system was a significant predictor of PN vs. RN (Psystems, CI was most highly correlated with surgery type (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.91), followed by RNS (AUC = 0.90) and PC (AUC = 0.88). Each individual component of these scoring systems was also a predictor of surgery type (Psystem (RNS), location along the lateral rim (PC), and centrality (CI). A novel model in which these 4 variables were rescaled outperformed each first-generation system (AUC = 0.91). Optimization of first-generation models of renal tumor complexity results in a novel scoring system, which strongly predicts surgery type. This second-generation model should aid comprehension, but future work is still needed to establish the most clinically useful model. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Usefulness and limitations of global flood risk models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Philip; Jongman, Brenden; Salamon, Peter; Simpson, Alanna; Bates, Paul; De Groeve, Tom; Muis, Sanne; Coughlan de Perez, Erin; Rudari, Roberto; Mark, Trigg; Winsemius, Hessel

    2016-04-01

    Global flood risk models are now a reality. Initially, their development was driven by a demand from users for first-order global assessments to identify risk hotspots. Relentless upward trends in flood damage over the last decade have enhanced interest in such assessments. The adoption of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage Associated with Climate Change Impacts have made these efforts even more essential. As a result, global flood risk models are being used more and more in practice, by an increasingly large number of practitioners and decision-makers. However, they clearly have their limits compared to local models. To address these issues, a team of scientists and practitioners recently came together at the Global Flood Partnership meeting to critically assess the question 'What can('t) we do with global flood risk models?'. The results of this dialogue (Ward et al., 2013) will be presented, opening a discussion on similar broader initiatives at the science-policy interface in other natural hazards. In this contribution, examples are provided of successful applications of global flood risk models in practice (for example together with the World Bank, Red Cross, and UNISDR), and limitations and gaps between user 'wish-lists' and model capabilities are discussed. Finally, a research agenda is presented for addressing these limitations and reducing the gaps. Ward et al., 2015. Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate2742

  18. Generation of risk importance information from severe accident PSA model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seo, Mi Ro; Kim, Hyeong Taek; Moon, Chan Kook

    2012-01-01

    One of the important objects conducting Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) is the relative evaluation of importance of the component or function that is greatly affected to the plant safety. This evaluation is performed by the importance assessment methods such as Risk Reduction Worth, Risk Achievement Worth, and Fuss el Vessley method from the aspect of core damage frequency (CDF). In the Level 1 PSA model, the importance of each component can be evaluated since the CDF is calculated by the combination of the branch probability of event tree and the component failure probability in the fault tree. But, the Level 2 PSA model in order to assess the containment integrity cannot evaluate the risk importance by the above methods because the model is consisted of 3 parts, plant damage status, containment event tree, and source term category. So, in the field that the Level 2 PSA risk importance information should be reflected, such as maintenance rule program, risk importance has been determined by the subjective judgment of the model developer. This study was performed in order to generate the risk importance information more objectively and systematically in the Level 2 PSA model, focused on the containment event tree in the domain PHWR Level 2 PSA model

  19. Development of a cyber security risk model using Bayesian networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shin, Jinsoo; Son, Hanseong; Khalil ur, Rahman; Heo, Gyunyoung

    2015-01-01

    Cyber security is an emerging safety issue in the nuclear industry, especially in the instrumentation and control (I and C) field. To address the cyber security issue systematically, a model that can be used for cyber security evaluation is required. In this work, a cyber security risk model based on a Bayesian network is suggested for evaluating cyber security for nuclear facilities in an integrated manner. The suggested model enables the evaluation of both the procedural and technical aspects of cyber security, which are related to compliance with regulatory guides and system architectures, respectively. The activity-quality analysis model was developed to evaluate how well people and/or organizations comply with the regulatory guidance associated with cyber security. The architecture analysis model was created to evaluate vulnerabilities and mitigation measures with respect to their effect on cyber security. The two models are integrated into a single model, which is called the cyber security risk model, so that cyber security can be evaluated from procedural and technical viewpoints at the same time. The model was applied to evaluate the cyber security risk of the reactor protection system (RPS) of a research reactor and to demonstrate its usefulness and feasibility. - Highlights: • We developed the cyber security risk model can be find the weak point of cyber security integrated two cyber analysis models by using Bayesian Network. • One is the activity-quality model signifies how people and/or organization comply with the cyber security regulatory guide. • Other is the architecture model represents the probability of cyber-attack on RPS architecture. • The cyber security risk model can provide evidence that is able to determine the key element for cyber security for RPS of a research reactor

  20. Risk Assessment of Engineering Project Financing Based on PPP Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ma Qiuli

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available At present, the project financing channel is single, and the urban facilities are in short supply, and the risk assessment and prevention mechanism of financing should be further improved to reduce the risk of project financing. In view of this, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of project financing risk which combined the method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and analytic hierarchy process is established. The scientificalness and effectiveness of the model are verified by the example of the world port project in Luohe city, and it provides basis and reference for engineering project financing based on PPP mode.

  1. APPRAISAL ANALYSIS IN FREEDOM WRITERS MOVIE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nani Hidayati

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available This study attempts to find out conveyed messages in the movie from the realization of the appraisal and narrative structure as well as to describe the use of the Appraisal System to express LaGravenese's (a Attitudes, (bEngagement & (c Graduation towards the main characters in Freedom Writers movie screenplay. Using both quantitative and qualitative descriptive approach for discourse appraisal system analysis, the result of this study reveals several messages of tolerance, earning respect and trust, honor diversity, and striving for success and trust from the realization of Appraisal and Narrative Structure either in the dialogues or monologues of Freedom Writers’ characters. The result from the Appraisal Devices realizing (a Attitudes reveals that LaGravenese likes to express characters’ negative emotion explicitly than implicitly. He likes to express characters’ negative capability than other kinds of Judgments. He appreciates the characters using more Negative Value which denotes that in his opinion, they see each other negatively. (bEngagement used in the screenplay describes that he emphasizes more on characters’ denial towards each other’s opinion and existence with the use of more Disclaim Heterogloss in the screenplay. (cGraduation used in the screenplay describes that the use of more Sharpening Focus indicates he emphasizes on characters’ category boundary more than scaling of intensity. Keywords: Appraisal Devices, Attitude, Engagement, and Graduation.

  2. Improving default risk prediction using Bayesian model uncertainty techniques.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kazemi, Reza; Mosleh, Ali

    2012-11-01

    Credit risk is the potential exposure of a creditor to an obligor's failure or refusal to repay the debt in principal or interest. The potential of exposure is measured in terms of probability of default. Many models have been developed to estimate credit risk, with rating agencies dating back to the 19th century. They provide their assessment of probability of default and transition probabilities of various firms in their annual reports. Regulatory capital requirements for credit risk outlined by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision have made it essential for banks and financial institutions to develop sophisticated models in an attempt to measure credit risk with higher accuracy. The Bayesian framework proposed in this article uses the techniques developed in physical sciences and engineering for dealing with model uncertainty and expert accuracy to obtain improved estimates of credit risk and associated uncertainties. The approach uses estimates from one or more rating agencies and incorporates their historical accuracy (past performance data) in estimating future default risk and transition probabilities. Several examples demonstrate that the proposed methodology can assess default probability with accuracy exceeding the estimations of all the individual models. Moreover, the methodology accounts for potentially significant departures from "nominal predictions" due to "upsetting events" such as the 2008 global banking crisis. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  3. Quantifying Distributional Model Risk via Optimal Transport

    OpenAIRE

    Blanchet, Jose; Murthy, Karthyek R. A.

    2016-01-01

    This paper deals with the problem of quantifying the impact of model misspecification when computing general expected values of interest. The methodology that we propose is applicable in great generality, in particular, we provide examples involving path dependent expectations of stochastic processes. Our approach consists in computing bounds for the expectation of interest regardless of the probability measure used, as long as the measure lies within a prescribed tolerance measured in terms ...

  4. Initiating Events Modeling for On-Line Risk Monitoring Application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simic, Z.; Mikulicic, V.

    1998-01-01

    In order to make on-line risk monitoring application of Probabilistic Risk Assessment more complete and realistic, a special attention need to be dedicated to initiating events modeling. Two different issues are of special importance: one is how to model initiating events frequency according to current plant configuration (equipment alignment and out of service status) and operating condition (weather and various activities), and the second is how to preserve dependencies between initiating events model and rest of PRA model. First, the paper will discuss how initiating events can be treated in on-line risk monitoring application. Second, practical example of initiating events modeling in EPRI's Equipment Out of Service on-line monitoring tool will be presented. Gains from application and possible improvements will be discussed in conclusion. (author)

  5. Critical appraisal of nonrandomized studies-A review of recommended and commonly used tools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quigley, Joan M; Thompson, Juliette C; Halfpenny, Nicholas J; Scott, David A

    2018-02-27

    When randomized controlled trial data are limited or unavailable, or to supplement randomized controlled trial evidence, health technology assessment (HTA) agencies may rely on systematic reviews of nonrandomized studies (NRSs) for evidence of the effectiveness of health care interventions. NRS designs may introduce considerable bias into systematic reviews, and several methodologies by which to evaluate this risk of bias are available. This study aimed to identify tools commonly used to assess bias in NRS and determine those recommended by HTA bodies. Appraisal tools used in NRS were identified through a targeted search of systematic reviews (January 2013-March 2017; MEDLINE and EMBASE [OVID SP]). Recommendations for the critical appraisal of NRS by expert review groups and HTA bodies were reviewed. From the 686 studies included in the narrative synthesis, 48 critical appraisal tools were identified. Commonly used tools included the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale, the methodological index for NRS, and bespoke appraisal tools. Neither the Cochrane Handbook nor the Centre for Reviews and Dissemination recommends a particular instrument for the assessment of risk of bias in NRS, although Cochrane has recently developed their own NRS critical appraisal tool. Among HTA bodies, only the Canadian Agency for Drugs and Technologies in Health recommends use of a specific critical appraisal tool-SIGN 50 (for cohort or case-control studies). Several criteria including reporting, external validity, confounding, and power were examined. There is no consensus between HTA groups on the preferred appraisal tool. Reviewers should select from a suite of tools on the basis of the design of studies included in their review. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  6. A model for the optimal risk management of (farm) firms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Svend

    Current methods of risk management focus on efficiency and do not provide operational answers to the basic question of how to optimise and balance the two objectives, maximisation of expected income and minimisation of risk. This paper uses the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) to derive...... an operational criterion for the optimal risk management of firms. The criterion assumes that the objective of the firm manager is to maximise the market value of the firm and is based on the condition that the application of risk management tools has a symmetric effect on the variability of income around...... the mean. The criterion is based on the expected consequences of risk management on relative changes in the variance of return on equity and expected income. The paper demonstrates how the criterion may be used to evaluate and compare the effect of different risk management tools, and it illustrates how...

  7. Risk Management Technologies With Logic and Probabilistic Models

    CERN Document Server

    Solozhentsev, E D

    2012-01-01

    This book presents intellectual, innovative, information technologies (I3-technologies) based on logical and probabilistic (LP) risk models. The technologies presented here consider such models for structurally complex systems and processes with logical links and with random events in economics and technology.  The volume describes the following components of risk management technologies: LP-calculus; classes of LP-models of risk and efficiency; procedures for different classes; special software for different classes; examples of applications; methods for the estimation of probabilities of events based on expert information. Also described are a variety of training courses in these topics. The classes of risk models treated here are: LP-modeling, LP-classification, LP-efficiency, and LP-forecasting. Particular attention is paid to LP-models of risk of failure to resolve difficult economic and technical problems. Amongst the  discussed  procedures of I3-technologies  are the construction of  LP-models,...

  8. Calibration plots for risk prediction models in the presence of competing risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerds, Thomas A; Andersen, Per K; Kattan, Michael W

    2014-08-15

    A predicted risk of 17% can be called reliable if it can be expected that the event will occur to about 17 of 100 patients who all received a predicted risk of 17%. Statistical models can predict the absolute risk of an event such as cardiovascular death in the presence of competing risks such as death due to other causes. For personalized medicine and patient counseling, it is necessary to check that the model is calibrated in the sense that it provides reliable predictions for all subjects. There are three often encountered practical problems when the aim is to display or test if a risk prediction model is well calibrated. The first is lack of independent validation data, the second is right censoring, and the third is that when the risk scale is continuous, the estimation problem is as difficult as density estimation. To deal with these problems, we propose to estimate calibration curves for competing risks models based on jackknife pseudo-values that are combined with a nearest neighborhood smoother and a cross-validation approach to deal with all three problems. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  9. Lung cancer in never smokers Epidemiology and risk prediction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCarthy, William J.; Meza, Rafael; Jeon, Jihyoun; Moolgavkar, Suresh

    2012-01-01

    In this chapter we review the epidemiology of lung cancer incidence and mortality among never smokers/ nonsmokers and describe the never smoker lung cancer risk models used by CISNET modelers. Our review focuses on those influences likely to have measurable population impact on never smoker risk, such as secondhand smoke, even though the individual-level impact may be small. Occupational exposures may also contribute importantly to the population attributable risk of lung cancer. We examine the following risk factors in this chapter: age, environmental tobacco smoke, cooking fumes, ionizing radiation including radon gas, inherited genetic susceptibility, selected occupational exposures, preexisting lung disease, and oncogenic viruses. We also compare the prevalence of never smokers between the three CISNET smoking scenarios and present the corresponding lung cancer mortality estimates among never smokers as predicted by a typical CISNET model. PMID:22882894

  10. Tutorial: Parallel Computing of Simulation Models for Risk Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reilly, Allison C; Staid, Andrea; Gao, Michael; Guikema, Seth D

    2016-10-01

    Simulation models are widely used in risk analysis to study the effects of uncertainties on outcomes of interest in complex problems. Often, these models are computationally complex and time consuming to run. This latter point may be at odds with time-sensitive evaluations or may limit the number of parameters that are considered. In this article, we give an introductory tutorial focused on parallelizing simulation code to better leverage modern computing hardware, enabling risk analysts to better utilize simulation-based methods for quantifying uncertainty in practice. This article is aimed primarily at risk analysts who use simulation methods but do not yet utilize parallelization to decrease the computational burden of these models. The discussion is focused on conceptual aspects of embarrassingly parallel computer code and software considerations. Two complementary examples are shown using the languages MATLAB and R. A brief discussion of hardware considerations is located in the Appendix. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  11. Bayesian uncertainty analyses of probabilistic risk models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pulkkinen, U.

    1989-01-01

    Applications of Bayesian principles to the uncertainty analyses are discussed in the paper. A short review of the most important uncertainties and their causes is provided. An application of the principle of maximum entropy to the determination of Bayesian prior distributions is described. An approach based on so called probabilistic structures is presented in order to develop a method of quantitative evaluation of modelling uncertainties. The method is applied to a small example case. Ideas for application areas for the proposed method are discussed

  12. Disgust, Sadness, and Appraisal: Disgusted Consumers Dislike Food More Than Sad Ones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Motoki, Kosuke; Sugiura, Motoaki

    2018-01-01

    According to the affect-as-information framework, consumers base judgments on their feelings. Disgust is associated with two kinds of appraisal: one in which the consumer avoids and distances him/herself immediately from the object concerned, and another in which the consumer is disgusted due to contamination and impurities within the environment. The first instance indicates that disgust can decrease a consumer’s preference for a product, regardless of its category. In contrast, the second case suggests that a product’s degree of depreciation is greater in products vulnerable to contamination, such as foods. However, it remains largely unknown how incidental disgust affects product preferences in accordance with the two appraisal-related goals. The present research investigates how incidental disgust (as opposed to sadness, an equally valenced but distinct emotion of appraisal) influences consumer preferences for products with or without a risk of contamination. Twenty-four participants repeatedly judged foods or household products after seeing an emotional image (conveying disgust, sadness, or neutrality). Foods and household products are the two representative product categories in grocery stores, but only foods are associated with a risk of contamination. The results showed that incidental disgust led to negative evaluations of both types of products; however, compared to sadness, incidental disgust demonstrated a stronger negative effect on preference for foods than household products. These findings elucidate that disgust and the appraisal of contamination specifically devalue foods, and broaden the application of the appraisal-information framework in consumer settings. PMID:29467697

  13. Disgust, Sadness, and Appraisal: Disgusted Consumers Dislike Food More Than Sad Ones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kosuke Motoki

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available According to the affect-as-information framework, consumers base judgments on their feelings. Disgust is associated with two kinds of appraisal: one in which the consumer avoids and distances him/herself immediately from the object concerned, and another in which the consumer is disgusted due to contamination and impurities within the environment. The first instance indicates that disgust can decrease a consumer’s preference for a product, regardless of its category. In contrast, the second case suggests that a product’s degree of depreciation is greater in products vulnerable to contamination, such as foods. However, it remains largely unknown how incidental disgust affects product preferences in accordance with the two appraisal-related goals. The present research investigates how incidental disgust (as opposed to sadness, an equally valenced but distinct emotion of appraisal influences consumer preferences for products with or without a risk of contamination. Twenty-four participants repeatedly judged foods or household products after seeing an emotional image (conveying disgust, sadness, or neutrality. Foods and household products are the two representative product categories in grocery stores, but only foods are associated with a risk of contamination. The results showed that incidental disgust led to negative evaluations of both types of products; however, compared to sadness, incidental disgust demonstrated a stronger negative effect on preference for foods than household products. These findings elucidate that disgust and the appraisal of contamination specifically devalue foods, and broaden the application of the appraisal-information framework in consumer settings.

  14. Disgust, Sadness, and Appraisal: Disgusted Consumers Dislike Food More Than Sad Ones.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Motoki, Kosuke; Sugiura, Motoaki

    2018-01-01

    According to the affect-as-information framework, consumers base judgments on their feelings. Disgust is associated with two kinds of appraisal: one in which the consumer avoids and distances him/herself immediately from the object concerned, and another in which the consumer is disgusted due to contamination and impurities within the environment. The first instance indicates that disgust can decrease a consumer's preference for a product, regardless of its category. In contrast, the second case suggests that a product's degree of depreciation is greater in products vulnerable to contamination, such as foods. However, it remains largely unknown how incidental disgust affects product preferences in accordance with the two appraisal-related goals. The present research investigates how incidental disgust (as opposed to sadness, an equally valenced but distinct emotion of appraisal) influences consumer preferences for products with or without a risk of contamination. Twenty-four participants repeatedly judged foods or household products after seeing an emotional image (conveying disgust, sadness, or neutrality). Foods and household products are the two representative product categories in grocery stores, but only foods are associated with a risk of contamination. The results showed that incidental disgust led to negative evaluations of both types of products; however, compared to sadness, incidental disgust demonstrated a stronger negative effect on preference for foods than household products. These findings elucidate that disgust and the appraisal of contamination specifically devalue foods, and broaden the application of the appraisal-information framework in consumer settings.

  15. The Global Earthquake Model and Disaster Risk Reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smolka, A. J.

    2015-12-01

    Advanced, reliable and transparent tools and data to assess earthquake risk are inaccessible to most, especially in less developed regions of the world while few, if any, globally accepted standards currently allow a meaningful comparison of risk between places. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a collaborative effort that aims to provide models, datasets and state-of-the-art tools for transparent assessment of earthquake hazard and risk. As part of this goal, GEM and its global network of collaborators have developed the OpenQuake engine (an open-source software for hazard and risk calculations), the OpenQuake platform (a web-based portal making GEM's resources and datasets freely available to all potential users), and a suite of tools to support modelers and other experts in the development of hazard, exposure and vulnerability models. These resources are being used extensively across the world in hazard and risk assessment, from individual practitioners to local and national institutions, and in regional projects to inform disaster risk reduction. Practical examples for how GEM is bridging the gap between science and disaster risk reduction are: - Several countries including Switzerland, Turkey, Italy, Ecuador, Papua-New Guinea and Taiwan (with more to follow) are computing national seismic hazard using the OpenQuake-engine. In some cases these results are used for the definition of actions in building codes. - Technical support, tools and data for the development of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk models for regional projects in South America and Sub-Saharan Africa. - Going beyond physical risk, GEM's scorecard approach evaluates local resilience by bringing together neighborhood/community leaders and the risk reduction community as a basis for designing risk reduction programs at various levels of geography. Actual case studies are Lalitpur in the Kathmandu Valley in Nepal and Quito/Ecuador. In agreement with GEM's collaborative approach, all

  16. Chain Risk Model for quantifying cost effectiveness of phytosanitary measures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Benninga, J.; Hennen, W.H.G.J.; Schans, van de J.

    2010-01-01

    A Chain Risk Model (CRM) was developed for a cost effective assessment of phytosanitary measures. The CRM model can be applied to phytosanitary assessments of all agricultural product chains. In CRM, stages are connected by product volume flows with which pest infections can be spread from one stage

  17. Adding Value to Ecological Risk Assessment with Population Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Forbes, Valery E.; Calow, Peter; Grimm, Volker

    2011-01-01

    population models can provide a powerful basis for expressing ecological risks that better inform the environmental management process and thus that are more likely to be used by managers. Here we provide at least five reasons why population modeling should play an important role in bridging the gap between...

  18. Empirical Analysis of Farm Credit Risk under the Structure Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Yan

    2009-01-01

    The study measures farm credit risk by using farm records collected by Farm Business Farm Management (FBFM) during the period 1995-2004. The study addresses the following questions: (1) whether farm's financial position is fully described by the structure model, (2) what are the determinants of farm capital structure under the structure model, (3)…

  19. Managing business model innovation risks - lessons for theory and practice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Taran, Yariv; Chester Goduscheit, René; Boer, Harry

    2015-01-01

    approach, arguing from a “no risk no reward” aphorism, a sloppy implementation approach towards business model innovation may result in catastrophic, sometimes even fatal, consequences to a firm’s core business. Based on four unsuccessful business model innovation experiences, which took place in three...

  20. Modeling of Flood Risk for the Continental United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lohmann, D.; Li, S.; Katz, B.; Goteti, G.; Kaheil, Y. H.; Vojjala, R.

    2011-12-01

    The science of catastrophic risk modeling helps people to understand the physical and financial implications of natural catastrophes (hurricanes, flood, earthquakes, etc.), terrorism, and the risks associated with changes in life expectancy. As such it depends on simulation techniques that integrate multiple disciplines such as meteorology, hydrology, structural engineering, statistics, computer science, financial engineering, actuarial science, and more in virtually every field of technology. In this talk we will explain the techniques and underlying assumptions of building the RMS US flood risk model. We especially will pay attention to correlation (spatial and temporal), simulation and uncertainty in each of the various components in the development process. Recent extreme floods (e.g. US Midwest flood 2008, US Northeast flood, 2010) have increased the concern of flood risk. Consequently, there are growing needs to adequately assess the flood risk. The RMS flood hazard model is mainly comprised of three major components. (1) Stochastic precipitation simulation module based on a Monte-Carlo analogue technique, which is capable of producing correlated rainfall events for the continental US. (2) Rainfall-runoff and routing module. A semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model was developed to properly assess the antecedent conditions, determine the saturation area and runoff. The runoff is further routed downstream along the rivers by a routing model. Combined with the precipitation model, it allows us to correlate the streamflow and hence flooding from different rivers, as well as low and high return-periods across the continental US. (3) Flood inundation module. It transforms the discharge (output from the flow routing) into water level, which is further combined with a two-dimensional off-floodplain inundation model to produce comprehensive flood hazard map. The performance of the model is demonstrated by comparing to the observation and published data. Output from

  1. Appraised leadership styles, psychosocial work factors, and musculoskeletal pain among public employees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fjell, Ylva; Osterberg, Mia; Alexanderson, Kristina; Karlqvist, Lena; Bildt, Carina

    2007-10-01

    The main aim of this study was to explore the associations between appraised leadership styles, psychosocial work factors and musculoskeletal pain among subordinates in four different public service sectors from an epidemiological perspective. A cross-sectional questionnaire study was conducted; data from 2,403 public sector employees in subordinate positions (86% women) were analysed. The appraised leadership styles were measured through items from a modified version of the CPE questionnaire (C change, P production/structure, E employee/relation). The structure validity of the CPE-model was examined by principal component analysis (PCA). Univariate and multivariate analyses of associations between levels of musculoskeletal pain and appraised leadership styles and with psychosocial work factors were conducted. Odds ratios (ORs) with confidence intervals (CIs) of 95% were used as a measure of associations. There were small variations in the appraisals of the immediate manager among the subordinates. However, the associations between musculoskeletal pain and leadership styles varied according to sector. Poor appraisals (low scores) on "change" and "employee relation" dimensions were associated with high levels of musculoskeletal pain in two sectors: home and health care services. In the domestic catering services, poor appraisals of managers in the "production/structure" dimension had the strongest association with high levels of pain. In general, poor appraisals of the "change" dimension was most strongly associated with high levels of musculoskeletal pain. "High work demands" had the strongest association with high levels of pain, particularly among the men. Poor appraisals of managers and their leadership styles were associated with high levels of musculoskeletal pain among both female and male subordinates in different public service sectors. There is therefore a great need of further studies of the mechanisms behind the relationships between the leadership

  2. Revenue Risk Modelling and Assessment on BOT Highway Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Novianti, T.; Setyawan, H. Y.

    2018-01-01

    The infrastructure project which is considered as a public-private partnership approach under BOT (Build-Operate-Transfer) arrangement, such as a highway, is risky. Therefore, assessment on risk factors is essential as the project have a concession period and is influenced by macroeconomic factors and consensus period. In this study, pre-construction risks of a highway were examined by using a Delphi method to create a space for offline expert discussions; a fault tree analysis to map intuition of experts and to create a model from the underlying risk events; a fuzzy logic to interpret the linguistic data of risk models. The loss of revenue for risk tariff, traffic volume, force majeure, and income were then measured. The results showed that the loss of revenue caused by the risk tariff was 10.5% of the normal total revenue. The loss of revenue caused by the risk of traffic volume was 21.0% of total revenue. The loss of revenue caused by the force majeure was 12.2% of the normal income. The loss of income caused by the non-revenue events was 6.9% of the normal revenue. It was also found that the volume of traffic was the major risk of a highway project because it related to customer preferences.

  3. Analytical Modeling for Underground Risk Assessment in Smart Cities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Israr Ullah

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available In the developed world, underground facilities are increasing day-by-day, as it is considered as an improved utilization of available space in smart cities. Typical facilities include underground railway lines, electricity lines, parking lots, water supply systems, sewerage network, etc. Besides its utility, these facilities also pose serious threats to citizens and property. To preempt accidental loss of precious human lives and properties, a real time monitoring system is highly desirable for conducting risk assessment on continuous basis and timely report any abnormality before its too late. In this paper, we present an analytical formulation to model system behavior for risk analysis and assessment based on various risk contributing factors. Based on proposed analytical model, we have evaluated three approximation techniques for computing final risk index: (a simple linear approximation based on multiple linear regression analysis; (b hierarchical fuzzy logic based technique in which related risk factors are combined in a tree like structure; and (c hybrid approximation approach which is a combination of (a and (b. Experimental results shows that simple linear approximation fails to accurately estimate final risk index as compared to hierarchical fuzzy logic based system which shows that the latter provides an efficient method for monitoring and forecasting critical issues in the underground facilities and may assist in maintenance efficiency as well. Estimation results based on hybrid approach fails to accurately estimate final risk index. However, hybrid scheme reveals some interesting and detailed information by performing automatic clustering based on location risk index.

  4. An Agent-Based Model of Evolving Community Flood Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tonn, Gina L; Guikema, Seth D

    2017-11-17

    Although individual behavior plays a major role in community flood risk, traditional flood risk models generally do not capture information on how community policies and individual decisions impact the evolution of flood risk over time. The purpose of this study is to improve the understanding of the temporal aspects of flood risk through a combined analysis of the behavioral, engineering, and physical hazard aspects of flood risk. Additionally, the study aims to develop a new modeling approach for integrating behavior, policy, flood hazards, and engineering interventions. An agent-based model (ABM) is used to analyze the influence of flood protection measures, individual behavior, and the occurrence of floods and near-miss flood events on community flood risk. The ABM focuses on the following decisions and behaviors: dissemination of flood management information, installation of community flood protection, elevation of household mechanical equipment, and elevation of homes. The approach is place based, with a case study area in Fargo, North Dakota, but is focused on generalizable insights. Generally, community mitigation results in reduced future damage, and individual action, including mitigation and movement into and out of high-risk areas, can have a significant influence on community flood risk. The results of this study provide useful insights into the interplay between individual and community actions and how it affects the evolution of flood risk. This study lends insight into priorities for future work, including the development of more in-depth behavioral and decision rules at the individual and community level. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  5. Crisis and emergency risk communication as an integrative model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynolds, Barbara; W Seeger, Matthew

    2005-01-01

    This article describes a model of communication known as crisis and emergency risk communication (CERC). The model is outlined as a merger of many traditional notions of health and risk communication with work in crisis and disaster communication. The specific kinds of communication activities that should be called for at various stages of disaster or crisis development are outlined. Although crises are by definition uncertain, equivocal, and often chaotic situations, the CERC model is presented as a tool health communicators can use to help manage these complex events.

  6. Modeling intelligent adversaries for terrorism risk assessment: some necessary conditions for adversary models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guikema, Seth

    2012-07-01

    Intelligent adversary modeling has become increasingly important for risk analysis, and a number of different approaches have been proposed for incorporating intelligent adversaries in risk analysis models. However, these approaches are based on a range of often-implicit assumptions about the desirable properties of intelligent adversary models. This "Perspective" paper aims to further risk analysis for situations involving intelligent adversaries by fostering a discussion of the desirable properties for these models. A set of four basic necessary conditions for intelligent adversary models is proposed and discussed. These are: (1) behavioral accuracy to the degree possible, (2) computational tractability to support decision making, (3) explicit consideration of uncertainty, and (4) ability to gain confidence in the model. It is hoped that these suggested necessary conditions foster discussion about the goals and assumptions underlying intelligent adversary modeling in risk analysis. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  7. Distributionally Robust Return-Risk Optimization Models and Their Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Yang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on the risk control of conditional value-at-risk, distributionally robust return-risk optimization models with box constraints of random vector are proposed. They describe uncertainty in both the distribution form and moments (mean and covariance matrix of random vector. It is difficult to solve them directly. Using the conic duality theory and the minimax theorem, the models are reformulated as semidefinite programming problems, which can be solved by interior point algorithms in polynomial time. An important theoretical basis is therefore provided for applications of the models. Moreover, an application of the models to a practical example of portfolio selection is considered, and the example is evaluated using a historical data set of four stocks. Numerical results show that proposed methods are robust and the investment strategy is safe.

  8. A Macroeconomic Model of Credit Risk in Uruguay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel Illanes

    Full Text Available In this paper we evaluate credit risk of the economy as a whole, aiming at the study of the financial stability. This analysis uses as proxy the credit granted by the banking system. We use a non-linear parametric model based on Merton's structural framework for the analysis of the risk associated to a loan portfolio. In this model, default occurs when the return of an economic agent falls under certain threshold which depends on different macroeconomic variables. We use this model to assess the credit risk module in stress tests for the local banking system. We also estimate the "elasticities" of credit categories correspondig to corporate credit and consumer credit, both in national currency and american dollars. We obtain the parameters for the model using maximum likelihood, where the likelihood function contains a random latent factor which is assumed to follow a normal distribution.

  9. Quality Appraisal of Single-Subject Experimental Designs: An Overview and Comparison of Different Appraisal Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wendt, Oliver; Miller, Bridget

    2012-01-01

    Critical appraisal of the research literature is an essential step in informing and implementing evidence-based practice. Quality appraisal tools that assess the methodological quality of experimental studies provide a means to identify the most rigorous research suitable for evidence-based decision-making. In single-subject experimental research,…

  10. APPRAISAL OF STUDENT RATING AS A MEASURE TO MANAGE THE QUALITY OF HIGHER EDUCATION IN INDIA: AN INSTITUTIONAL STUDY USING SIX SIGMA MODEL APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arun Vijay

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Students' rating of teaching is one of the most widely accepted methods of measuring the quality in Higher Education worldwide. The overall experience gained by the students during their academic journey in their respective college is a key factor to determine the Institutional Quality. This study was conducted among the Physical Therapy students with an objective to capture the overall experience related to various aspects of their Academic environment including teaching and learning process adopted in their college. To facilitate that, a unique questionnaire called,"Academic Environment Evaluation Questionnaire (AEEQ was developed covering all the important teaching elements of the Higher Education Institutions. The students' opinion was captured and analyzed through six sigma analytical tool using Poisson distribution model. From the non-conformance level captured through the responses from the students about the various categories of teaching and learning elements, the corresponding Sigma rating for each teaching element was measured. Accordingly, a six point Quality rating system was developed customizing to each sigma values. This study brings a new, innovative student driven Quality rating system for the Higher Education Institutions in India.

  11. Health risks maps. Modelling of air quality as a tool to map health risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Doorn, R.; Hegger, C.

    2000-01-01

    Environmental departments consider geographical maps with information on air quality as the final product of a complicated process of measuring, modelling and presentation. Municipal health departments consider such maps a useful starting point to solve the problem whether air pollution causes health risks for citizens. The answer to this question cannot be reduced to checking if threshold limit values are exceeded. Based on the results of measurements and modelling of concentrations of nitrogen dioxide in air, the health significance of air pollution caused by nitrogen dioxide is illuminated. A proposal is presented to map health risks of air pollution by using the results of measurements and modelling of air pollution. 7 refs

  12. The Research on Safety Management Information System of Railway Passenger Based on Risk Management Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Wenmin; Jia, Yuanhua

    2018-01-01

    Based on the risk management theory and the PDCA cycle model, requirements of the railway passenger transport safety production is analyzed, and the establishment of the security risk assessment team is proposed to manage risk by FTA with Delphi from both qualitative and quantitative aspects. The safety production committee is also established to accomplish performance appraisal, which is for further ensuring the correctness of risk management results, optimizing the safety management business processes and improving risk management capabilities. The basic framework and risk information database of risk management information system of railway passenger transport safety are designed by Ajax, Web Services and SQL technologies. The system realizes functions about risk management, performance appraisal and data management, and provides an efficient and convenient information management platform for railway passenger safety manager.

  13. Measuring Risk Structure Using the Capital Asset Pricing Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zdeněk Konečný

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This article is aimed at proposing of an inovative method for calculating the shares of operational and financial risks. This methodological tool will support managers while monitoring the risk structure. The method is based on the capital asset pricing model (CAPM for calculation of equity cost, namely on determination of the beta coefficient, which is the only variable, that is dependent on entrepreneurial risk. There are combined both alternative approaches for calculation betas, which means, that there are accounting data used and there is distinguished unlevered beta and levered beta. The novelty of the proposed method is based on including of quantities for measuring operational and financial risks in beta calculation. The volatility of cash flow, as a quantity for measuring of operational risk, is included in the unlevered beta. Return on equity based on the cash flow and the indebtedness are variables used in calculation of the levered beta. This modification makes it possible to calculate the share of operational risk as the proportion of the unlevered/levered beta and the share of financial risk, which is the remainder of levered beta. The modified method is applied on companies from two sectors of the Czech economy. In the data set there are companies from one cyclical sector and from one neutral sector to find out potential differences in the risk structure. The findings show, that in both sectors the share of operational risk is over 50%, however, in the neutral sector is this more dominant.

  14. Avian collision risk models for wind energy impact assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Masden, E.A., E-mail: elizabeth.masden@uhi.ac.uk [Environmental Research Institute, North Highland College-UHI, University of the Highlands and Islands, Ormlie Road, Thurso, Caithness KW14 7EE (United Kingdom); Cook, A.S.C.P. [British Trust for Ornithology, The Nunnery, Thetford IP24 2PU (United Kingdom)

    2016-01-15

    With the increasing global development of wind energy, collision risk models (CRMs) are routinely used to assess the potential impacts of wind turbines on birds. We reviewed and compared the avian collision risk models currently available in the scientific literature, exploring aspects such as the calculation of a collision probability, inclusion of stationary components e.g. the tower, angle of approach and uncertainty. 10 models were cited in the literature and of these, all included a probability of collision of a single bird colliding with a wind turbine during passage through the rotor swept area, and the majority included a measure of the number of birds at risk. 7 out of the 10 models calculated the probability of birds colliding, whilst the remainder used a constant. We identified four approaches to calculate the probability of collision and these were used by others. 6 of the 10 models were deterministic and included the most frequently used models in the UK, with only 4 including variation or uncertainty in some way, the most recent using Bayesian methods. Despite their appeal, CRMs have their limitations and can be ‘data hungry’ as well as assuming much about bird movement and behaviour. As data become available, these assumptions should be tested to ensure that CRMs are functioning to adequately answer the questions posed by the wind energy sector. - Highlights: • We highlighted ten models available to assess avian collision risk. • Only 4 of the models included variability or uncertainty. • Collision risk models have limitations and can be ‘data hungry’. • It is vital that the most appropriate model is used for a given task.

  15. Avian collision risk models for wind energy impact assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masden, E.A.; Cook, A.S.C.P.

    2016-01-01

    With the increasing global development of wind energy, collision risk models (CRMs) are routinely used to assess the potential impacts of wind turbines on birds. We reviewed and compared the avian collision risk models currently available in the scientific literature, exploring aspects such as the calculation of a collision probability, inclusion of stationary components e.g. the tower, angle of approach and uncertainty. 10 models were cited in the literature and of these, all included a probability of collision of a single bird colliding with a wind turbine during passage through the rotor swept area, and the majority included a measure of the number of birds at risk. 7 out of the 10 models calculated the probability of birds colliding, whilst the remainder used a constant. We identified four approaches to calculate the probability of collision and these were used by others. 6 of the 10 models were deterministic and included the most frequently used models in the UK, with only 4 including variation or uncertainty in some way, the most recent using Bayesian methods. Despite their appeal, CRMs have their limitations and can be ‘data hungry’ as well as assuming much about bird movement and behaviour. As data become available, these assumptions should be tested to ensure that CRMs are functioning to adequately answer the questions posed by the wind energy sector. - Highlights: • We highlighted ten models available to assess avian collision risk. • Only 4 of the models included variability or uncertainty. • Collision risk models have limitations and can be ‘data hungry’. • It is vital that the most appropriate model is used for a given task.

  16. Developing a risk management maturity model: a comprehensive risk maturity model for Dutch municipalities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cienfuegos Spikin, I.J.

    2013-01-01

    As in the private sector, risk management has gained also increasing popularity by public entities. Nonetheless, the correct implementation of risk management by public entities might be a difficult task to accomplish. The Dutch case is an interesting example, since municipalities in the Netherlands

  17. Appraisal of alternative skin model for the study of epidermal restoration following exposure to various environmental stress agents: ionising radiation and UV B

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Isoir, M.

    2006-06-01

    Human skin is a major target tissue for ionising radiation (IR) and UV B. We developed a skin explant model and used 2 types of keratinocytes to study survival and oxidative stress induced by these radiations. We examined oxidative damages by measuring R.O.S. produced and cellular anti-oxidant defenses induced. We observed into skin exposed to IR a modulation of genes expression implied in the control of oxidative stress, confirmed by the decrease of catalase, glutathione peroxidase and superoxide dismutase enzymatic activities. The imbalance observed between anti- and pro-apoptotic genes expression shows that keratinocytes apoptosis may be partly dependent on radio-induced R.O.S. production. We showed the difference of radiosensitivity between N.H.E.K. and Ha Ca.T., which may be linked to their differential oxidative responses. In addition, during re-epithelialising, we demonstrated that activated N.H.E.K. after IR express keratin 6, release pro-inflammatory cytokines and proliferate, without modification of their differentiation. Treatment of N.H.E.K. with geranyl geranylacetone (G.G.A.) has a beneficial effect on their radio-induced activation by increasing IL-1 release, their migration in scrapped area and their survival. G.G.A. has an anti apoptotic ability (induction of Hsp70- caspase-3 pathway) and migratory properties (P38/RhoA activation) on N.H.E.K., but after IR, only caspase-3 pathway is induced. This work thus contributes to the understanding of cutaneous damages after IR and G.G.A. mechanism of action which accelerates re-epithelialising. (author)

  18. Monitoring risk-adjusted outcomes in congenital heart surgery: does the appropriateness of a risk model change with time?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsang, Victor T; Brown, Katherine L; Synnergren, Mats Johanssen; Kang, Nicholas; de Leval, Marc R; Gallivan, Steve; Utley, Martin

    2009-02-01

    Risk adjustment of outcomes in pediatric congenital heart surgery is challenging due to the great diversity in diagnoses and procedures. We have previously shown that variable life-adjusted display (VLAD) charts provide an effective graphic display of risk-adjusted outcomes in this specialty. A question arises as to whether the risk model used remains appropriate over time. We used a recently developed graphic technique to evaluate the performance of an existing risk model among those patients at a single center during 2000 to 2003 originally used in model development. We then compared the distribution of predicted risk among these patients with that among patients in 2004 to 2006. Finally, we constructed a VLAD chart of risk-adjusted outcomes for the latter period. Among 1083 patients between April 2000 and March 2003, the risk model performed well at predicted risks above 3%, underestimated mortality at 2% to 3% predicted risk, and overestimated mortality below 2% predicted risk. There was little difference in the distribution of predicted risk among these patients and among 903 patients between June 2004 and October 2006. Outcomes for the more recent period were appreciably better than those expected according to the risk model. This finding cannot be explained by any apparent bias in the risk model combined with changes in case-mix. Risk models can, and hopefully do, become out of date. There is scope for complacency in the risk-adjusted audit if the risk model used is not regularly recalibrated to reflect changing standards and expectations.

  19. Flexible competing risks regression modeling and goodness-of-fit

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scheike, Thomas; Zhang, Mei-Jie

    2008-01-01

    In this paper we consider different approaches for estimation and assessment of covariate effects for the cumulative incidence curve in the competing risks model. The classic approach is to model all cause-specific hazards and then estimate the cumulative incidence curve based on these cause...... models that is easy to fit and contains the Fine-Gray model as a special case. One advantage of this approach is that our regression modeling allows for non-proportional hazards. This leads to a new simple goodness-of-fit procedure for the proportional subdistribution hazards assumption that is very easy...... of the flexible regression models to analyze competing risks data when non-proportionality is present in the data....

  20. Stochastic Watershed Models for Risk Based Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, R. M.

    2017-12-01

    Over half a century ago, the Harvard Water Program introduced the field of operational or synthetic hydrology providing stochastic streamflow models (SSMs), which could generate ensembles of synthetic streamflow traces useful for hydrologic risk management. The application of SSMs, based on streamflow observations alone, revolutionized water resources planning activities, yet has fallen out of favor due, in part, to their inability to account for the now nearly ubiquitous anthropogenic influences on streamflow. This commentary advances the modern equivalent of SSMs, termed `stochastic watershed models' (SWMs) useful as input to nearly all modern risk based water resource decision making approaches. SWMs are deterministic watershed models implemented using stochastic meteorological series, model parameters and model errors, to generate ensembles of streamflow traces that represent the variability in possible future streamflows. SWMs combine deterministic watershed models, which are ideally suited to accounting for anthropogenic influences, with recent developments in uncertainty analysis and principles of stochastic simulation

  1. The SPOT Project (Potentially Triggerable Offshore Seismicity and Tsunamis): a First Appraisal of the Possible Impact of Oil and Gas Platforms on the Seismic and Tsunami Risks along the Italian Coasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basili, R.; Di Bucci, D.; Antoncecchi, I.; Ciccone, F.; Teofilo, G.; Argnani, A.; Rovere, M.; Ligi, M.; Coltelli, M.; Lorito, S.; Borzi, B.; Germagnoli, F.; Di Ludovico, M.; Lignola, G. P.; Prota, A.

    2017-12-01

    The majority of oil and gas production in Europe takes place offshore and Italy is one of the European countries with the longest coastlines facing these operations. Given the generally growing energy demand, and the increasing concern toward human-driven hazards, scientists are called to provide background information for helping ensure a safe energy supply. We here present the activities of the project SPOT, which is aimed to help Italian authorities comply with the application of the Safety of Offshore Oil and Gas Operations European Directive (2013/30/EU) and the ensuing Italian codes. We carry out a reconstruction of offshore geological structures to assess the existence of potentially seismogenic faults in the surroundings of off-shore platforms. This study is a propaedeutic step for the assessment of potentially triggered seismicity connected with operations on such platforms. The descriptive parameters (3D geometry and behavior) of the identified faults will be used to estimate their natural earthquake rates. The impact of these natural earthquakes along the coasts will then be modeled in terms of expected ground shaking and tsunamis. The tsunamis potentially generated by submarine landslides induced by earthquake shaking will also be analyzed. In turn, these models will be used to estimate potential human and economic losses in a multi-hazard approach to risk assessment. Wherever the combined earthquake and tsunami modeling indicates a relevant impact along the coasts, a more detailed analysis will be carried out, also involving the operators of the related platforms, to perform specific models which also take into account production and/or storage data. Activities with a consolidated background, such as those concerning the impact scenarios of earthquakes, and more innovative activities, such as those dedicated to build up the first vulnerability/fragility curves related to tsunamis for the Italian building stock, will be integrated within the project

  2. Application of the Beck model to stock markets: Value-at-Risk and portfolio risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozaki, M.; Sato, A.-H.

    2008-02-01

    We apply the Beck model, developed for turbulent systems that exhibit scaling properties, to stock markets. Our study reveals that the Beck model elucidates the properties of stock market returns and is applicable to practical use such as the Value-at-Risk estimation and the portfolio analysis. We perform empirical analysis with daily/intraday data of the S&P500 index return and find that the volatility fluctuation of real markets is well-consistent with the assumptions of the Beck model: The volatility fluctuates at a much larger time scale than the return itself and the inverse of variance, or “inverse temperature”, β obeys Γ-distribution. As predicted by the Beck model, the distribution of returns is well-fitted by q-Gaussian distribution of Tsallis statistics. The evaluation method of Value-at-Risk (VaR), one of the most significant indicators in risk management, is studied for q-Gaussian distribution. Our proposed method enables the VaR evaluation in consideration of tail risk, which is underestimated by the variance-covariance method. A framework of portfolio risk assessment under the existence of tail risk is considered. We propose a multi-asset model with a single volatility fluctuation shared by all assets, named the single β model, and empirically examine the agreement between the model and an imaginary portfolio with Dow Jones indices. It turns out that the single β model gives good approximation to portfolios composed of the assets with non-Gaussian and correlated returns.

  3. Sensitivity Analysis of Launch Vehicle Debris Risk Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gee, Ken; Lawrence, Scott L.

    2010-01-01

    As part of an analysis of the loss of crew risk associated with an ascent abort system for a manned launch vehicle, a model was developed to predict the impact risk of the debris resulting from an explosion of the launch vehicle on the crew module. The model consisted of a debris catalog describing the number, size and imparted velocity of each piece of debris, a method to compute the trajectories of the debris and a method to calculate the impact risk given the abort trajectory of the crew module. The model provided a point estimate of the strike probability as a function of the debris catalog, the time of abort and the delay time between the abort and destruction of the launch vehicle. A study was conducted to determine the sensitivity of the strike probability to the various model input parameters and to develop a response surface model for use in the sensitivity analysis of the overall ascent abort risk model. The results of the sensitivity analysis and the response surface model are presented in this paper.

  4. Deriving forest fire ignition risk with biogeochemical process modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eastaugh, C S; Hasenauer, H

    2014-05-01

    Climate impacts the growth of trees and also affects disturbance regimes such as wildfire frequency. The European Alps have warmed considerably over the past half-century, but incomplete records make it difficult to definitively link alpine wildfire to climate change. Complicating this is the influence of forest composition and fuel loading on fire ignition risk, which is not considered by purely meteorological risk indices. Biogeochemical forest growth models track several variables that may be used as proxies for fire ignition risk. This study assesses the usefulness of the ecophysiological model BIOME-BGC's 'soil water' and 'labile litter carbon' variables in predicting fire ignition. A brief application case examines historic fire occurrence trends over pre-defined regions of Austria from 1960 to 2008. Results show that summer fire ignition risk is largely a function of low soil moisture, while winter fire ignitions are linked to the mass of volatile litter and atmospheric dryness.

  5. Model based climate information on drought risk in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calmanti, S.; Syroka, J.; Jones, C.; Carfagna, F.; Dell'Aquila, A.; Hoefsloot, P.; Kaffaf, S.; Nikulin, G.

    2012-04-01

    The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) has embarked upon the endeavor of creating a sustainable Africa-wide natural disaster risk management system. A fundamental building block of this initiative is the setup of a drought impact modeling platform called Africa Risk-View that aims to quantify and monitor weather-related food security risk in Africa. The modeling approach is based the Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI), as the fundamental indicator of the performances of agriculture and uses historical records of food assistance operation to project future potential needs for livelihood protection. By using climate change scenarios as an input to Africa Risk-View it is possible, in principles, to evaluate the future impact of climate variability on critical issues such as food security and the overall performance of the envisaged risk management system. A necessary preliminary step to this challenging task is the exploration of the sources of uncertainties affecting the assessment based on modeled climate change scenarios. For this purpose, a limited set of climate models have been selected in order verify the relevance of using climate model output data with Africa Risk-View and to explore a minimal range of possible sources of uncertainty. This first evaluation exercise started before the setup of the CORDEX framework and has relied on model output available at the time. In particular only one regional downscaling was available for the entire African continent from the ENSEMBLES project. The analysis shows that current coarse resolution global climate models can not directly feed into the Africa RiskView risk-analysis tool. However, regional downscaling may help correcting the inherent biases observed in the datasets. Further analysis is performed by using the first data available under the CORDEX framework. In particular, we consider a set of simulation driven with boundary conditions from the reanalysis ERA-Interim to evaluate the skill drought

  6. Acute Myocardial Infarction Readmission Risk Prediction Models: A Systematic Review of Model Performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Lauren N; Makam, Anil N; Darden, Douglas; Mayo, Helen; Das, Sandeep R; Halm, Ethan A; Nguyen, Oanh Kieu

    2018-01-01

    Hospitals are subject to federal financial penalties for excessive 30-day hospital readmissions for acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Prospectively identifying patients hospitalized with AMI at high risk for readmission could help prevent 30-day readmissions by enabling targeted interventions. However, the performance of AMI-specific readmission risk prediction models is unknown. We systematically searched the published literature through March 2017 for studies of risk prediction models for 30-day hospital readmission among adults with AMI. We identified 11 studies of 18 unique risk prediction models across diverse settings primarily in the United States, of which 16 models were specific to AMI. The median overall observed all-cause 30-day readmission rate across studies was 16.3% (range, 10.6%-21.0%). Six models were based on administrative data; 4 on electronic health record data; 3 on clinical hospital data; and 5 on cardiac registry data. Models included 7 to 37 predictors, of which demographics, comorbidities, and utilization metrics were the most frequently included domains. Most models, including the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services AMI administrative model, had modest discrimination (median C statistic, 0.65; range, 0.53-0.79). Of the 16 reported AMI-specific models, only 8 models were assessed in a validation cohort, limiting generalizability. Observed risk-stratified readmission rates ranged from 3.0% among the lowest-risk individuals to 43.0% among the highest-risk individuals, suggesting good risk stratification across all models. Current AMI-specific readmission risk prediction models have modest predictive ability and uncertain generalizability given methodological limitations. No existing models provide actionable information in real time to enable early identification and risk-stratification of patients with AMI before hospital discharge, a functionality needed to optimize the potential effectiveness of readmission reduction interventions

  7. Towards a nanorisk appraisal framework

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Senjen, Rye; Hansen, Steffen Foss

    2011-01-01

    The article discusses, in the context of nanotechnology, whether current concepts of chemical risk assessment can be used to assess nanorisk. Nanorisk can be defined from the narrow (eco)toxicological perspective to the broader sense to include societal/cultural impacts or even to the fundamental...... philosophical level, i.e. questioning societies need for the technology. We outline here the limitations of chemical risk assessment and other recent proposed risk governance paradigms in relation to nanotechnology and nanomaterials, including its inability to include societal risks (ownership, privacy......, security, nanodivide,1 convergence of nano-, bio-, etc.) and metaphysical risk (including the lay persons perspective on the risks of nanotechnology). Finally, we outline the fundamental principles and criteria that an alternative comprehensive framework should be based on....

  8. A "Toy" Model for Operational Risk Quantification using Credibility Theory

    OpenAIRE

    Hans B\\"uhlmann; Pavel V. Shevchenko; Mario V. W\\"uthrich

    2009-01-01

    To meet the Basel II regulatory requirements for the Advanced Measurement Approaches in operational risk, the bank's internal model should make use of the internal data, relevant external data, scenario analysis and factors reflecting the business environment and internal control systems. One of the unresolved challenges in operational risk is combining of these data sources appropriately. In this paper we focus on quantification of the low frequency high impact losses exceeding some high thr...

  9. Blended Risk Approach in Applying PSA Models to Risk-Based Regulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dimitrijevic, V. B.; Chapman, J. R.

    1996-01-01

    In this paper, the authors will discuss a modern approach in applying PSA models in risk-based regulation. The Blended Risk Approach is a combination of traditional and probabilistic processes. It is receiving increased attention in different industries in the U. S. and abroad. The use of the deterministic regulations and standards provides a proven and well understood basis on which to assess and communicate the impact of change to plant design and operation. Incorporation of traditional values into risk evaluation is working very well in the blended approach. This approach is very application specific. It includes multiple risk attributes, qualitative risk analysis, and basic deterministic principles. In blending deterministic and probabilistic principles, this approach ensures that the objectives of the traditional defense-in-depth concept are not compromised and the design basis of the plant is explicitly considered. (author)

  10. Towards a nanorisk appraisal framework

    OpenAIRE

    Senjen , Rye; Hansen , Steffen Foss

    2011-01-01

    The paper discusses in the context of nanotechnology whether current concepts of chemical risk assessment can be used to assess nanorisk. Nanorisk can be defined from the narrow (eco) toxicological perspective to the broader sense to include societal/cultural impacts or even to the fundamental philosophical level i.e. questioning societies need for the technology. We outline here the limitations of chemical risk assessment and other recent proposed risk governance paradigms in relation to nan...

  11. Human Factor Modelling in the Risk Assessment of Port Manoeuvers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Teresa Abramowicz-Gerigk

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The documentation of human factor influence on the scenario development in maritime accidents compared with expert methods is commonly used as a basis in the process of setting up safety regulations and instructions. The new accidents and near misses show the necessity for further studies in determining the human factor influence on both risk acceptance criteria and development of risk control options for the manoeuvers in restricted waters. The paper presents the model of human error probability proposed for the assessment of ship masters and marine pilots' error decision and its influence on the risk of port manoeuvres.

  12. Discrete competing risk model with application to modeling bus-motor failure data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jiang, R.

    2010-01-01

    Failure data are often modeled using continuous distributions. However, a discrete distribution can be appropriate for modeling interval or grouped data. When failure data come from a complex system, a simple discrete model can be inappropriate for modeling such data. This paper presents two types of discrete distributions. One is formed by exponentiating an underlying distribution, and the other is a two-fold competing risk model. The paper focuses on two special distributions: (a) exponentiated Poisson distribution and (b) competing risk model involving a geometric distribution and an exponentiated Poisson distribution. The competing risk model has a decreasing-followed-by-unimodal mass function and a bathtub-shaped failure rate. Five classical data sets on bus-motor failures can be simultaneously and appropriately fitted by a general 5-parameter competing risk model with the parameters being functions of the number of successive failures. The lifetime and aging characteristics of the fitted distribution are analyzed.

  13. Risk assessment and remedial policy evaluation using predictive modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Linkov, L.; Schell, W.R.

    1996-01-01

    As a result of nuclear industry operation and accidents, large areas of natural ecosystems have been contaminated by radionuclides and toxic metals. Extensive societal pressure has been exerted to decrease the radiation dose to the population and to the environment. Thus, in making abatement and remediation policy decisions, not only economic costs but also human and environmental risk assessments are desired. This paper introduces a general framework for risk assessment and remedial policy evaluation using predictive modeling. Ecological risk assessment requires evaluation of the radionuclide distribution in ecosystems. The FORESTPATH model is used for predicting the radionuclide fate in forest compartments after deposition as well as for evaluating the efficiency of remedial policies. Time of intervention and radionuclide deposition profile was predicted as being crucial for the remediation efficiency. Risk assessment conducted for a critical group of forest users in Belarus shows that consumption of forest products (berries and mushrooms) leads to about 0.004% risk of a fatal cancer annually. Cost-benefit analysis for forest cleanup suggests that complete removal of organic layer is too expensive for application in Belarus and a better methodology is required. In conclusion, FORESTPATH modeling framework could have wide applications in environmental remediation of radionuclides and toxic metals as well as in dose reconstruction and, risk-assessment

  14. Contribution to modeling and dynamic risk hedging in energy markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noufel, Frikha

    2010-12-01

    This thesis is concerned with probabilistic numerical problems about modeling, risk control and risk hedging motivated by applications to energy markets. The main tool is based on stochastic approximation and simulation methods. This thesis consists of three parts. The first one is devoted to the computation of two risk measures of the portfolio loss distribution L: the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR). This computation uses a stochastic algorithm combined with an adaptive variance reduction technique. The first part of this chapter deals with the finite dimensional case, the second part extends the results of the first part to the case of a path-dependency process and the last one deals low discrepancy sequences. The second chapter is devoted with risk minimizing hedging strategies in an incomplete market operating in discrete time using quantization based stochastic approximation. Theoretical results on CVaR hedging are presented then numerical aspects are addressed in a Markovian framework. The last part deals with joint modeling of Gas and Electricity spot prices. The multi-factor model presented is based on stationary Ornstein process with parameterized diffusion coefficient. (author)

  15. NASA Space Radiation Program Integrative Risk Model Toolkit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Hu, Shaowen; Plante, Ianik; Ponomarev, Artem L.; Sandridge, Chris

    2015-01-01

    NASA Space Radiation Program Element scientists have been actively involved in development of an integrative risk models toolkit that includes models for acute radiation risk and organ dose projection (ARRBOD), NASA space radiation cancer risk projection (NSCR), hemocyte dose estimation (HemoDose), GCR event-based risk model code (GERMcode), and relativistic ion tracks (RITRACKS), NASA radiation track image (NASARTI), and the On-Line Tool for the Assessment of Radiation in Space (OLTARIS). This session will introduce the components of the risk toolkit with opportunity for hands on demonstrations. The brief descriptions of each tools are: ARRBOD for Organ dose projection and acute radiation risk calculation from exposure to solar particle event; NSCR for Projection of cancer risk from exposure to space radiation; HemoDose for retrospective dose estimation by using multi-type blood cell counts; GERMcode for basic physical and biophysical properties for an ion beam, and biophysical and radiobiological properties for a beam transport to the target in the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory beam line; RITRACKS for simulation of heavy ion and delta-ray track structure, radiation chemistry, DNA structure and DNA damage at the molecular scale; NASARTI for modeling of the effects of space radiation on human cells and tissue by incorporating a physical model of tracks, cell nucleus, and DNA damage foci with image segmentation for the automated count; and OLTARIS, an integrated tool set utilizing HZETRN (High Charge and Energy Transport) intended to help scientists and engineers study the effects of space radiation on shielding materials, electronics, and biological systems.

  16. An etiologic prediction model incorporating biomarkers to predict the bladder cancer risk associated with occupational exposure to aromatic amines: a pilot study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mastrangelo, Giuseppe; Carta, Angela; Arici, Cecilia; Pavanello, Sofia; Porru, Stefano

    2017-01-01

    No etiological prediction model incorporating biomarkers is available to predict bladder cancer risk associated with occupational exposure to aromatic amines. Cases were 199 bladder cancer patients. Clinical, laboratory and genetic data were predictors in logistic regression models (full and short) in which the dependent variable was 1 for 15 patients with aromatic amines related bladder cancer and 0 otherwise. The receiver operating characteristics approach was adopted; the area under the curve was used to evaluate discriminatory ability of models. Area under the curve was 0.93 for the full model (including age, smoking and coffee habits, DNA adducts, 12 genotypes) and 0.86 for the short model (including smoking, DNA adducts, 3 genotypes). Using the "best cut-off" of predicted probability of a positive outcome, percentage of cases correctly classified was 92% (full model) against 75% (short model). Cancers classified as "positive outcome" are those to be referred for evaluation by an occupational physician for etiological diagnosis; these patients were 28 (full model) or 60 (short model). Using 3 genotypes instead of 12 can double the number of patients with suspect of aromatic amine related cancer, thus increasing costs of etiologic appraisal. Integrating clinical, laboratory and genetic factors, we developed the first etiologic prediction model for aromatic amine related bladder cancer. Discriminatory ability was excellent, particularly for the full model, allowing individualized predictions. Validation of our model in external populations is essential for practical use in the clinical setting.

  17. Standardized binomial models for risk or prevalence ratios and differences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, David B; Kinlaw, Alan C; MacLehose, Richard F; Cole, Stephen R

    2015-10-01

    Epidemiologists often analyse binary outcomes in cohort and cross-sectional studies using multivariable logistic regression models, yielding estimates of adjusted odds ratios. It is widely known that the odds ratio closely approximates the risk or prevalence ratio when the outcome is rare, and it does not do so when the outcome is common. Consequently, investigators may decide to directly estimate the risk or prevalence ratio using a log binomial regression model. We describe the use of a marginal structural binomial regression model to estimate standardized risk or prevalence ratios and differences. We illustrate the proposed approach using data from a cohort study of coronary heart disease status in Evans County, Georgia, USA. The approach reduces problems with model convergence typical of log binomial regression by shifting all explanatory variables except the exposures of primary interest from the linear predictor of the outcome regression model to a model for the standardization weights. The approach also facilitates evaluation of departures from additivity in the joint effects of two exposures. Epidemiologists should consider reporting standardized risk or prevalence ratios and differences in cohort and cross-sectional studies. These are readily-obtained using the SAS, Stata and R statistical software packages. The proposed approach estimates the exposure effect in the total population. © The Author 2015; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.

  18. Physics-based Entry, Descent and Landing Risk Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gee, Ken; Huynh, Loc C.; Manning, Ted

    2014-01-01

    A physics-based risk model was developed to assess the risk associated with thermal protection system failures during the entry, descent and landing phase of a manned spacecraft mission. In the model, entry trajectories were computed using a three-degree-of-freedom trajectory tool, the aerothermodynamic heating environment was computed using an engineering-level computational tool and the thermal response of the TPS material was modeled using a one-dimensional thermal response tool. The model was capable of modeling the effect of micrometeoroid and orbital debris impact damage on the TPS thermal response. A Monte Carlo analysis was used to determine the effects of uncertainties in the vehicle state at Entry Interface, aerothermodynamic heating and material properties on the performance of the TPS design. The failure criterion was set as a temperature limit at the bondline between the TPS and the underlying structure. Both direct computation and response surface approaches were used to compute the risk. The model was applied to a generic manned space capsule design. The effect of material property uncertainty and MMOD damage on risk of failure were analyzed. A comparison of the direct computation and response surface approach was undertaken.

  19. A mathematical model for environmental risk assessment in manufacturing industry

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    何莉萍; 徐盛明; 陈大川; 党创寅

    2002-01-01

    Environmental conscious manufacturing has become an important issue in industry because of market pressure and environmental regulations. An environmental risk assessment model was developed based on the network analytic method and fuzzy set theory. The "interval analysis method" was applied to deal with the on-site monitoring data as basic information for assessment. In addition, the fuzzy set theory was employed to allow uncertain, interactive and dynamic information to be effectively incorporated into the environmental risk assessment. This model is a simple, practical and effective tool for evaluating the environmental risk of manufacturing industry and for analyzing the relative impacts of emission wastes, which are hazardous to both human and ecosystem health. Furthermore, the model is considered useful for design engineers and decision-maker to design and select processes when the costs, environmental impacts and performances of a product are taken into consideration.

  20. A quality risk management model approach for cell therapy manufacturing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopez, Fabio; Di Bartolo, Chiara; Piazza, Tommaso; Passannanti, Antonino; Gerlach, Jörg C; Gridelli, Bruno; Triolo, Fabio

    2010-12-01

    International regulatory authorities view risk management as an essential production need for the development of innovative, somatic cell-based therapies in regenerative medicine. The available risk management guidelines, however, provide little guidance on specific risk analysis approaches and procedures applicable in clinical cell therapy manufacturing. This raises a number of problems. Cell manufacturing is a poorly automated process, prone to operator-introduced variations, and affected by heterogeneity of the processed organs/tissues and lot-dependent variability of reagent (e.g., collagenase) efficiency. In this study, the principal challenges faced in a cell-based product manufacturing context (i.e., high dependence on human intervention and absence of reference standards for acceptable risk levels) are identified and addressed, and a risk management model approach applicable to manufacturing of cells for clinical use is described for the first time. The use of the heuristic and pseudo-quantitative failure mode and effect analysis/failure mode and critical effect analysis risk analysis technique associated with direct estimation of severity, occurrence, and detection is, in this specific context, as effective as, but more efficient than, the analytic hierarchy process. Moreover, a severity/occurrence matrix and Pareto analysis can be successfully adopted to identify priority failure modes on which to act to mitigate risks. The application of this approach to clinical cell therapy manufacturing in regenerative medicine is also discussed. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

  1. Model dependencies of risk aversion and working interest estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lerche, I.

    1996-01-01

    Working interest, W, and risk adjusted value, RAV, are evaluated using both Cozzolino's formula for exponential dependence of risk aversion and also for a hyperbolic tangent dependence. In addition, the general method is given of constructing an RAV formula for any functional choice of risk aversion dependence. Two examples are given to illustrate how the model dependencies influence choices of working interest and risk adjusted value depending on whether the expected value of the project is positive or negative. In general the Cozzolino formula provides a more conservative position for risk than does the hyperbolic tangent formula, reflecting the difference in corporate attitudes to risk aversion. The commonly used Cozzolino formula is shown to have simple exact arithmetic expressions for maximum working interest and maximum RAV; the hyperbolic tangent formula has approximate analytic expressions. Both formulae also yield approximate analytical expressions for the working interest yielding a risk neutral RAV of zero. These arithmetic results are useful for making quick estimates of working interest ranges and risk adjusted values. (Author)

  2. Modelling of Transport Projects Uncertainties

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen

    2009-01-01

    This paper proposes a new way of handling the uncertainties present in transport decision making based on infrastructure appraisals. The paper suggests to combine the principle of Optimism Bias, which depicts the historical tendency of overestimating transport related benefits and underestimating...... to supplement Optimism Bias and the associated Reference Class Forecasting (RCF) technique with a new technique that makes use of a scenario-grid. We tentatively introduce and refer to this as Reference Scenario Forecasting (RSF). The final RSF output from the CBA-DK model consists of a set of scenario......-based graphs which function as risk-related decision support for the appraised transport infrastructure project....

  3. Persistent hemifacial spasm after microvascular decompression: a risk assessment model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shah, Aalap; Horowitz, Michael

    2017-06-01

    Microvascular decompression (MVD) for hemifacial spasm (HFS) provides resolution of disabling symptoms such as eyelid twitching and muscle contractions of the entire hemiface. The primary aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive value of patient demographics and spasm characteristics on long-term outcomes, with or without intraoperative lateral spread response (LSR) as an additional variable in a risk assessment model. A retrospective study was undertaken to evaluate the associations of pre-operative patient characteristics, as well as intraoperative LSR and need for a staged procedure on the presence of persistent or recurrent HFS at the time of hospital discharge and at follow-up. A risk assessment model was constructed with the inclusion of six clinically or statistically significant variables from the univariate analyses. A receiving operator characteristic curve was generated, and area under the curve was calculated to determine the strength of the predictive model. A risk assessment model was first created consisting of significant pre-operative variables (Model 1) (age >50, female gender, history of botulinum toxin use, platysma muscle involvement). This model demonstrated borderline predictive value for persistent spasm at discharge (AUC .60; p=.045) and fair predictive value at follow-up (AUC .75; p=.001). Intraoperative variables (e.g. LSR persistence) demonstrated little additive value (Model 2) (AUC .67). Patients with a higher risk score (three or greater) demonstrated greater odds of persistent HFS at the time of discharge (OR 1.5 [95%CI 1.16-1.97]; p=.035), as well as greater odds of persistent or recurrent spasm at the time of follow-up (OR 3.0 [95%CI 1.52-5.95]; p=.002) Conclusions: A risk assessment model consisting of pre-operative clinical characteristics is useful in prognosticating HFS persistence at follow-up.

  4. Reconsidering the psychometrics of quality of life assessment in light of response shift and appraisal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schwartz Carolyn E

    2004-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The increasing evidence for response shift phenomena in quality of life (QOL assessment points to the necessity to reconsider both the measurement model and the application of psychometric analyses. The proposed psychometric model posits that the QOL true score is always contingent upon parameters of the appraisal process. This new model calls into question existing methods for establishing the reliability and validity of QOL assessment tools and suggests several new approaches for describing the psychometric properties of these scales. Recommendations for integrating the assessment of appraisal into QOL research and clinical practice are discussed.

  5. Reconsidering the psychometrics of quality of life assessment in light of response shift and appraisal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, Carolyn E; Rapkin, Bruce D

    2004-01-01

    The increasing evidence for response shift phenomena in quality of life (QOL) assessment points to the necessity to reconsider both the measurement model and the application of psychometric analyses. The proposed psychometric model posits that the QOL true score is always contingent upon parameters of the appraisal process. This new model calls into question existing methods for establishing the reliability and validity of QOL assessment tools and suggests several new approaches for describing the psychometric properties of these scales. Recommendations for integrating the assessment of appraisal into QOL research and clinical practice are discussed. PMID:15038830

  6. Are Masking-Based Models of Risk Useful?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gisiner, Robert C

    2016-01-01

    As our understanding of directly observable effects from anthropogenic sound exposure has improved, concern about "unobservable" effects such as stress and masking have received greater attention. Equal energy models of masking such as power spectrum models have the appeal of simplicity, but do they offer biologically realistic assessments of the risk of masking? Data relevant to masking such as critical ratios, critical bandwidths, temporal resolution, and directional resolution along with what is known about general mammalian antimasking mechanisms all argue for a much more complicated view of masking when making decisions about the risk of masking inherent in a given anthropogenic sound exposure scenario.

  7. Modeling operational risks of the nuclear industry with Bayesian networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wieland, Patricia; Lustosa, Leonardo J.

    2009-01-01

    Basically, planning a new industrial plant requires information on the industrial management, regulations, site selection, definition of initial and planned capacity, and on the estimation of the potential demand. However, this is far from enough to assure the success of an industrial enterprise. Unexpected and extremely damaging events may occur that deviates from the original plan. The so-called operational risks are not only in the system, equipment, process or human (technical or managerial) failures. They are also in intentional events such as frauds and sabotage, or extreme events like terrorist attacks or radiological accidents and even on public reaction to perceived environmental or future generation impacts. For the nuclear industry, it is a challenge to identify and to assess the operational risks and their various sources. Early identification of operational risks can help in preparing contingency plans, to delay the decision to invest or to approve a project that can, at an extreme, affect the public perception of the nuclear energy. A major problem in modeling operational risk losses is the lack of internal data that are essential, for example, to apply the loss distribution approach. As an alternative, methods that consider qualitative and subjective information can be applied, for example, fuzzy logic, neural networks, system dynamic or Bayesian networks. An advantage of applying Bayesian networks to model operational risk is the possibility to include expert opinions and variables of interest, to structure the model via causal dependencies among these variables, and to specify subjective prior and conditional probabilities distributions at each step or network node. This paper suggests a classification of operational risks in industry and discusses the benefits and obstacles of the Bayesian networks approach to model those risks. (author)

  8. Modeling operational risks of the nuclear industry with Bayesian networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wieland, Patricia [Pontificia Univ. Catolica do Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio), RJ (Brazil). Dept. de Engenharia Industrial; Comissao Nacional de Energia Nuclear (CNEN), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)], e-mail: pwieland@cnen.gov.br; Lustosa, Leonardo J. [Pontificia Univ. Catolica do Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio), RJ (Brazil). Dept. de Engenharia Industrial], e-mail: ljl@puc-rio.br

    2009-07-01

    Basically, planning a new industrial plant requires information on the industrial management, regulations, site selection, definition of initial and planned capacity, and on the estimation of the potential demand. However, this is far from enough to assure the success of an industrial enterprise. Unexpected and extremely damaging events may occur that deviates from the original plan. The so-called operational risks are not only in the system, equipment, process or human (technical or managerial) failures. They are also in intentional events such as frauds and sabotage, or extreme events like terrorist attacks or radiological accidents and even on public reaction to perceived environmental or future generation impacts. For the nuclear industry, it is a challenge to identify and to assess the operational risks and their various sources. Early identification of operational risks can help in preparing contingency plans, to delay the decision to invest or to approve a project that can, at an extreme, affect the public perception of the nuclear energy. A major problem in modeling operational risk losses is the lack of internal data that are essential, for example, to apply the loss distribution approach. As an alternative, methods that consider qualitative and subjective information can be applied, for example, fuzzy logic, neural networks, system dynamic or Bayesian networks. An advantage of applying Bayesian networks to model operational risk is the possibility to include expert opinions and variables of interest, to structure the model via causal dependencies among these variables, and to specify subjective prior and conditional probabilities distributions at each step or network node. This paper suggests a classification of operational risks in industry and discusses the benefits and obstacles of the Bayesian networks approach to model those risks. (author)

  9. Forewarning model for water pollution risk based on Bayes theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Jun; Jin, Juliang; Guo, Qizhong; Chen, Yaqian; Lu, Mengxiong; Tinoco, Luis

    2014-02-01

    In order to reduce the losses by water pollution, forewarning model for water pollution risk based on Bayes theory was studied. This model is built upon risk indexes in complex systems, proceeding from the whole structure and its components. In this study, the principal components analysis is used to screen out index systems. Hydrological model is employed to simulate index value according to the prediction principle. Bayes theory is adopted to obtain posterior distribution by prior distribution with sample information which can make samples' features preferably reflect and represent the totals to some extent. Forewarning level is judged on the maximum probability rule, and then local conditions for proposing management strategies that will have the effect of transforming heavy warnings to a lesser degree. This study takes Taihu Basin as an example. After forewarning model application and vertification for water pollution risk from 2000 to 2009 between the actual and simulated data, forewarning level in 2010 is given as a severe warning, which is well coincide with logistic curve. It is shown that the model is rigorous in theory with flexible method, reasonable in result with simple structure, and it has strong logic superiority and regional adaptability, providing a new way for warning water pollution risk.

  10. [Evaluation of Wits appraisal with superimposition method].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, T; Ahn, J; Baumrind, S

    1999-07-01

    To compare the conventional Wits appraisal with superimposed Wits appraisal in evaluation of sagittal jaw relationship change between pre and post orthodontic treatment. The sample consists of 48-case pre and post treatment lateral head films. Computerized digitizing is used to get the cephalometric landmarks and measure conventional Wits value, superimposed Wits value and ANB angle. The correlation analysis among these three measures was done by SAS statistical package. The change of ANB angle has higher correlation with the change of superimposed Wits than that of the conventional Wits. The r-value is as high as 0.849 (P < 0.001). The superimposed Wits appraisal reflects the change of sagittal jaw relationship more objectively than the conventional one.

  11. Canadian population risk of radon induced lung cancer variation range assessment based on various radon risk models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Jing

    2017-01-01

    To address public concerns regarding radon risk and variations in risk estimates based on various risk models available in the literature, lifetime lung cancer risks were calculated with five well-known risk models using more recent Canadian vital statistics (5-year averages from 2008 to 2012). Variations in population risk estimation among various models were assessed. The results showed that the Canadian population risk of radon induced lung cancer can vary from 5.0 to 17% for men and 5.1 to 18% for women based on different radon risk models. Averaged over the estimates from various risk models with better radon dosimetry, 13% of lung cancer deaths among Canadian males and 14% of lung cancer deaths among Canadian females were attributable to long-term indoor radon exposure. (authors)

  12. Appraising into the Sun: Six-State Solar Home Paired-Sale Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

    2015-11-12

    Although residential solar photovoltaic (PV) installations have proliferated, PV systems on some U.S. homes still receive no value during an appraisal because comparable home sales are lacking. To value residential PV, some previous studies have employed paired-sales appraisal methods to analyze small PV home samples in depth, while others have used statistical methods to analyze large samples. Our first-of-its-kind study connects the two approaches. It uses appraisal methods to evaluate sales price premiums for owned PV systems on single-unit detached houses that were also evaluated in a large statistical study. Independent appraisers evaluated 43 recent home sales pairs in six states: California, Oregon, Florida, Maryland, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. We compare these results with contributory-value estimates—based on income (using the PV Value® tool), gross cost, and net cost—as well as hedonic modeling results from the recent statistical study. The results provide strong, appraisal-based evidence of PV premiums in all states. More importantly, the results support the use of cost- and incomebased PV premium estimates when paired-sales analysis is impossible. PV premiums from the paired-sales analysis are most similar to net PV cost estimates. PV Value® income results generally track the appraised premiums, although conservatively. The appraised premiums are in agreement with the hedonic modeling results as well, which bolsters the suitability of both approaches for estimating PV home premiums. Therefore, these results will benefit valuation professionals and mortgage lenders who increasingly are encountering homes equipped with PV and need to understand the factors that can both contribute to and detract from market value.

  13. Financial capital appraisal in the system of industrial enterprise development management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akhtyamov M.K.

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper studies an objective appraisal of financial capital value in industrial enterprise development management. The authors draw attention to a limited scope of work in the area of financial management under application of a traditional approach to appraisal of enterprise financial capital value and describe a new advanced approach to this problem solving. The paper focuses on reformation of balance sheet statement, in which economic benefit and reserves of financial capital are included by the authors; the author’s methodology for appraisal of financial capital value and its application sphere are denoted. In accordance with a case study, we confirm possibility of more accurate appraisal of enterprise investment opportunities by taking into account economic benefit from reserve of liquidity and borrowing capacity, which increases financial capital value. The practical approval results affirm that application of proprietary methodology for appraisal of financial capital and its elements has practical utility in solving problems of determination of required amount of attracted foreign investments and problems of determination of fair value of company take of an external investor, which are aimed at minimizing risks of corporate ownership dissemination and improving managerial efficiency of an industrial enterprise.

  14. Modeling risk and uncertainty in designing reverse logistics problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aida Nazari Gooran

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Increasing attention to environmental problems and social responsibility lead to appear reverse logistic (RL issues in designing supply chain which, in most recently, has received considerable attention from both academicians and practitioners. In this paper, a multi-product reverse logistic network design model is developed; then a hybrid method including Chance-constrained programming, Genetic algorithm and Monte Carlo simulation, are proposed to solve the developed model. The proposed model is solved for risk-averse and risk-seeking decision makers by conditional value at risk, sum of the excepted value and standard deviation, respectively. Comparisons of the results show that minimizing the costs had no direct relation with the kind of decision makers; however, in the most cases, risk-seeking decision maker gained more return products than risk-averse ones. It is clear that by increasing returned products to the chain, production costs of new products and material will be reduced and also by this act, environmental benefits will be created.

  15. Toxicological risk assessment of complex mixtures through the Wtox model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William Gerson Matias

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Mathematical models are important tools for environmental management and risk assessment. Predictions about the toxicity of chemical mixtures must be enhanced due to the complexity of eects that can be caused to the living species. In this work, the environmental risk was accessed addressing the need to study the relationship between the organism and xenobiotics. Therefore, ve toxicological endpoints were applied through the WTox Model, and with this methodology we obtained the risk classication of potentially toxic substances. Acute and chronic toxicity, citotoxicity and genotoxicity were observed in the organisms Daphnia magna, Vibrio scheri and Oreochromis niloticus. A case study was conducted with solid wastes from textile, metal-mechanic and pulp and paper industries. The results have shown that several industrial wastes induced mortality, reproductive eects, micronucleus formation and increases in the rate of lipid peroxidation and DNA methylation of the organisms tested. These results, analyzed together through the WTox Model, allowed the classication of the environmental risk of industrial wastes. The evaluation showed that the toxicological environmental risk of the samples analyzed can be classied as signicant or critical.

  16. Simplified risk model support for environmental management integration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eide, S.A.; Jones, J.L.; Wierman, T.E.

    1998-01-01

    This paper summarizes the process and results of human health risk assessments of the US Department of Energy (DOE) complex-wide programs for high-level waste, transuranic waste, low-level, mixed low-level waste, and spent nuclear fuel. The DOE baseline programs and alternatives for these five material types were characterized by disposition maps (material flow diagrams) and supporting information in the May 1997 report 'A Contractor Report to the Department of Energy on Environmental Baseline Programs and Integration Opportunities' (Discussion Draft). Risk analyses were performed using the Simplified Risk Model (SRM), developed to support DOE Environmental Management Integration studies. The SRM risk analyses consistently and comprehensively cover the life cycle programs for the five material types, from initial storage through final disposition. Risk results are presented at several levels: DOE complex-wide, material type program, individual DOE sites, and DOE site activities. The detailed risk results are documented in the February 1998 report 'Human Health Risk Comparisons for Environmental Management Baseline Programs and Integration Opportunities' (Discussion Draft)

  17. Gambler Risk Perception: A Mental Model and Grounded Theory Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spurrier, Michael; Blaszczynski, Alexander; Rhodes, Paul

    2015-09-01

    Few studies have investigated how gamblers perceive risk or the role of risk perception in disordered gambling. The purpose of the current study therefore was to obtain data on lay gamblers' beliefs on these variables and their effects on decision-making, behaviour, and disordered gambling aetiology. Fifteen regular lay gamblers (non-problem/low risk, moderate risk and problem gamblers) completed a semi-structured interview following mental models and grounded theory methodologies. Gambler interview data was compared to an expert 'map' of risk-perception, to identify comparative gaps or differences associated with harmful or safe gambling. Systematic overlapping processes of data gathering and analysis were used to iteratively extend, saturate, test for exception, and verify concepts and themes emerging from the data. The preliminary findings suggested that gambler accounts supported the presence of expert conceptual constructs, and to some degree the role of risk perception in protecting against or increasing vulnerability to harm and disordered gambling. Gambler accounts of causality, meaning, motivation, and strategy were highly idiosyncratic, and often contained content inconsistent with measures of disordered gambling. Disordered gambling appears heavily influenced by relative underestimation of risk and overvaluation of gambling, based on explicit and implicit analysis, and deliberate, innate, contextual, and learned processing evaluations and biases.

  18. Performance appraisal and merit recognition exercise 2007

    CERN Multimedia

    HR Department

    2006-01-01

    The 2007 performance appraisal and merit recognition exercise will start in the usual way with annual interviews between staff and their supervisors. This year, these interviews should be held in the period from 8 January 2007 to 16 April 2007. Interconnection with the 5-yearly review, a number of modifications to the procedures relating to the performance appraisal and merit recognition are currently under study. Administrative Circular No. 26 (Procedures governing the Career Development of Staff Members) and the electronic MAPS form in EDH are being reviewed and will be available from January onwards. HR Department will shortly provide further information on this subject. Human Resources Department Tel. 73566

  19. Religion, Psychology and Globalisation Process: Attitudinal Appraisal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emmanuel Orok Duke

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available A key consequence of globalisation is the integrative approach to reality whereby emphasis is placed on interdependence. Religion being an expression of human culture is equally affected by this cultural revolution. The main objective of this paper is to examine how religious affiliation, among Christians, influences attitudes towards the application of psychological sciences to the assuagement of human suffering. The sociological theory of structural functionalism was deployed to explain attitudinal appraisal. Ethnographic methodology, through quantitative analysis of administered questionnaire, was also used. The study reveals that religious tenets largely shape attitudinal appraisal and redefine the borders of globalisation’s metanarratives.

  20. LIFETIME LUNG CANCER RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH INDOOR RADON EXPOSURE BASED ON VARIOUS RADON RISK MODELS FOR CANADIAN POPULATION.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jing

    2017-04-01

    This study calculates and compares the lifetime lung cancer risks associated with indoor radon exposure based on well-known risk models in the literature; two risk models are from joint studies among miners and the other three models were developed from pooling studies on residential radon exposure from China, Europe and North America respectively. The aim of this article is to make clear that the various models are mathematical descriptions of epidemiologically observed real risks in different environmental settings. The risk from exposure to indoor radon is real and it is normal that variations could exist among different risk models even when they were applied to the same dataset. The results show that lifetime risk estimates vary significantly between the various risk models considered here: the model based on the European residential data provides the lowest risk estimates, while models based on the European miners and Chinese residential pooling with complete dosimetry give the highest values. The lifetime risk estimates based on the EPA/BEIR-VI model lie within this range and agree reasonably well with the averages of risk estimates from the five risk models considered in this study. © Crown copyright 2016.