A background to risk analysis. Vol. 4

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Taylor, J.R.

1979-01-01

This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles, and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justification or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appendix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 4 treats human error in plant operation. (BP)

Dose-Volume Analysis of Radiation Nephropathy in Children: Preliminary Report of the Risk Consortium

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boelling, Tobias; Ernst, Iris; Pape, Hildegard; Martini, Carmen; Ruebe, Christian; Timmermann, Beate; Fischedick, Karin; Kortmann, Rolf-Dieter; Willich, Normann

2011-01-01

Purpose: To characterize kidney function in children and adolescents who had undergone radiation treatment that included parts of the kidney. Methods and Materials: Patients receiving radiotherapy during childhood or adolescence were prospectively registered in Germany's Registry for the Evaluation of Side Effects after Radiation in Childhood and Adolescence (RiSK). Detailed information was recorded regarding radiation doses at the organs at risk since 2001 all over Germany. Toxicity evaluation was performed according to standardized Radiation Therapy Oncology Group/European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer criteria. Results: Up to May 2009, 1086 patients from 62 centers were recruited, including 126 patients (median age, 10.2 years) who underwent radiotherapy to parts of the kidneys. Maximal late toxicity (median follow-up 28.5 months in 74 patients) was characterized as Grade 0 (n = 65), 1 (n = 7) or 2 (n = 2). All patients with late effects had received potentially nephrotoxic chemotherapy. A statistically significant difference between patients with and without Grade 1 toxicity, revealing higher exposed kidney volumes in patients with toxicity, was seen for the kidney volume exposed to 20 Gy (V20; p = 0.031) and 30 Gy (V30; p = 0.003). Conclusions: Preliminary data indicate that radiation-induced kidney function impairment is rare in current pediatric multimodal treatment approaches. In the future, RiSK will be able to provide further detailed data regarding dose-volume effect relationships of radiation-associated side effects in pediatric oncology patients.

Risk Factors for Neovascular Glaucoma After Proton Beam Therapy of Uveal Melanoma: A Detailed Analysis of Tumor and Dose–Volume Parameters

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Mishra, Kavita K., E-mail: kmishra@radonc.ucsf.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, California (United States); Daftari, Inder K.; Weinberg, Vivian [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, California (United States); Cole, Tia [The Tumori Foundation, San Francisco, California (United States); Quivey, Jeanne M.; Castro, Joseph R.; Phillips, Theodore L. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, California (United States); Char, Devron H. [The Tumori Foundation, San Francisco, California (United States)

2013-10-01

Purpose: To determine neovascular glaucoma (NVG) incidence and identify contributing tumor and dosing factors in uveal melanoma patients treated with proton beam radiation therapy (PBRT). Methods and Materials: A total of 704 PBRT patients treated by a single surgeon (DHC) for uveal melanoma (1996-2010) were reviewed for NVG in our prospectively maintained database. All patients received 56 GyE in 4 fractions. Median follow-up was 58.3 months. Analyses included the Kaplan-Meier method to estimate NVG distributions, univariate log–rank tests, and Cox's proportional hazards multivariate analysis using likelihood ratio tests to identify independent risk factors of NVG among patient, tumor, and dose–volume histogram parameters. Results: The 5-year PBRT NVG rate was 12.7% (95% confidence interval [CI] 10.2%-15.9%). The 5-year rate of enucleation due to NVG was 4.9% (95% CI 3.4%-7.2%). Univariately, the NVG rate increased significantly with larger tumor diameter (P<.0001), greater height (P<.0001), higher T stage (P<.0001), and closer proximity to the disc (P=.002). Dose–volume histogram analysis revealed that if >30% of the lens or ciliary body received ≥50% dose (≥28 GyE), there was a higher probability of NVG (P<.0001 for both). Furthermore, if 100% of the disc or macula received ≥28 GyE, the NVG rate was higher (P<.0001 and P=.03, respectively). If both anterior and posterior doses were above specified cut points, NVG risk was highest (P<.0001). Multivariate analysis confirmed significant independent risk factors to include tumor height (P<.0001), age (P<.0001), %disc treated to ≥50% Dose (<100% vs 100%) (P=.0007), larger tumor diameter (P=.01), %lens treated to ≥90% Dose (0 vs >0%-30% vs >30%) (P=.01), and optic nerve length treated to ≥90% Dose (≤1 mm vs >1 mm) (P=.02). Conclusions: Our current PBRT patients experience a low rate of NVG and resultant enucleation compared with historical data. The present analysis shows that tumor height

Risk factors influencing the pleural drainage volume after transthoracic oesophagectomy.

Science.gov (United States)

Kosugi, Shin-ichi; Kanda, Tatsuo; Yajima, Kazuhito; Ishikawa, Takashi; Sakamoto, Kaoru

2013-06-01

The objective of this study was to clarify the factors influencing pleural drainage volume after transthoracic oesophagectomy and to determine criteria for the selection of patients who would benefit from the early removal of chest drains. Clinicopathological characteristics of 155 patients who underwent transthoracic oesophagectomy were prospectively collected, and the daily drainage volume of each patient was retrospectively reviewed. Potential risk factors were compared between the high-output group (n = 39) and low-output group (n = 116), which were dichotomized using the 75th percentile of total pleural drainage volume of the total study population. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify independent risk factors. The median duration of drainage was 10 days, with a median total drainage volume of 2258 ml. Of 27 potential risk factors influencing the drainage volume, creatinine clearance (P = 0.04), operative approach (P = 0.03) and thoracic duct removal (P = 0.01) were significantly associated with the total pleural drainage volume. The removal of the thoracic duct (P = 0.02; odds ratio, 4.02; 95% confidence interval 1.20-13.41) and lower creatinine clearance (P = 0.04; odds ratio, 1.02; 95% confidence interval 1.00-1.04) was independent risk factors for increased pleural drainage volume after transthoracic oesophagectomy. The early removal of chest drains may be possible in patients without these risk factors.

Initial 12-h operative fluid volume is an independent risk factor for pleural effusion after hepatectomy.

Science.gov (United States)

Cheng, Xiang; Wu, Jia-Wei; Sun, Ping; Song, Zi-Fang; Zheng, Qi-Chang

2016-12-01

Pleural effusion after hepatectomy is associated with significant morbidity and prolonged hospital stays. Several studies have addressed the risk factors for postoperative pleural effusion. However, there are no researches concerning the role of the initial 12-h operative fluid volume. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether the initial 12-h operative fluid volume during liver resection is an independent risk factor for pleural effusion after hepatectomy. In this study, we retrospectively analyzed clinical data of 470 patients consecutively undergoing elective hepatectomy between January 2011 and December 2012. We prospectively collected and retrospectively analyzed baseline and clinical data, including preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative variables. Univariate and multivariate analyses were carried out to identify whether the initial 12-h operative fluid volume was an independent risk factor for pleural effusion after hepatectomy. The multivariate analysis identified 2 independent risk factors for pleural effusion: operative time [odds ratio (OR)=10.2] and initial 12-h operative fluid volume (OR=1.0003). Threshold effect analyses revealed that the initial 12 h operative fluid volume was positively correlated with the incidence of pleural effusion when the initial 12-h operative fluid volume exceeded 4636 mL. We conclude that the initial 12-h operative fluid volume during liver resection and operative time are independent risk factors for pleural effusion after hepatectomy. Perioperative intravenous fluids should be restricted properly.

Secondary Breast Cancer Risk by Radiation Volume in Women With Hodgkin Lymphoma

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Conway, Jessica L. [Centre for Lymphoid Cancer, British Columbia Cancer Agency, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada); Department of Surgery, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada); Connors, Joseph M. [Centre for Lymphoid Cancer, British Columbia Cancer Agency, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada); Tyldesley, Scott [Centre for Lymphoid Cancer, British Columbia Cancer Agency, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada); Department of Surgery, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada); Savage, Kerry J. [Centre for Lymphoid Cancer, British Columbia Cancer Agency, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada); Campbell, Belinda A. [Division of Radiation Oncology and Cancer Imaging, Peter MacCallum Cancer Centre, Melbourne, Victoria (Australia); Zheng, Yvonne Y.; Hamm, Jeremy [Department of Cancer Surveillance and Outcomes, British Columbia Cancer Agency, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada); Pickles, Tom, E-mail: TPickles@bccancer.bc.ca [Centre for Lymphoid Cancer, British Columbia Cancer Agency, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada); Department of Surgery, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada)

2017-01-01

Purpose: To determine whether the risk of secondary breast cancer (SBC) is reduced in women with Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) treated with smaller field radiation therapy (SFRT) versus mantle field radiation therapy (MRT). Methods and Materials: We used the BC Cancer Agency (BCCA) Lymphoid Cancer Database to identify female patients treated for HL between January 1961 and December 2009. Radiation therapy volumes were categorized as MRT or SFRT, which included involved field, involved site, or involved nodal radiation therapy. SBC risk estimates were compared using competing risk analysis and Fine and Gray multivariable model: MRT ± chemotherapy, SFRT ± chemotherapy, or chemotherapy-only. Results: Of 734 eligible patients, 75% of the living patients have been followed up for more than 10 years, SBC has developed in 54, and 15 have died of breast cancer. The 20-year estimated risks (competing risk cumulative incidence) for SBC differed significantly: MRT 7.5% (95% confidence interval [CI] 4.4%-11.5%), SFRT 3.1% (95% CI 1.0%-7.7%), and chemotherapy-only 2.2% (95% CI 1.0%-4.8%) (P=.01). Using a Fine and Gray model to control for death and patients lost to follow-up, MRT was associated with a higher risk of SBC (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.9; 95% CI 1.4%-6.0%; P=.004) compared with chemotherapy-only and with SFRT (HR = 3.3; 95% CI 1.3%-8.4%; P=.01). SFRT was not associated with a greater risk of SBC compared with chemotherapy-only (HR = 0.87; 95% CI 0.28%-2.66%; P=.80). Conclusion: This study confirms that large-volume MRT is associated with a markedly increased risk of SBC; however, more modern small-volume RT is not associated with a greater risk of SBC than chemotherapy alone.

User's guide for PRISM (Plant Risk Status Information Management System) Arkansas Nuclear One-Unit 1: Volume 1, Program for inspectors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Campbell, D.J.; Guthrie, V.H.; Kirchner, J.R.; Kirkman, J.Q.; Paula, H.M.; Ellison, B.C.; Dycus, F.M.; Farquharson, J.A.; Flanagan, G.F.

1988-03-01

This user's guide is a two-volume document designed to teach NRC inspectors and NRC regulators how to access probabilistic risk assessment information from the two Plant Risk Status Information Management System (PRISIM) programs developed for Arkansas Nuclear One -- Unit One (ANO-1). This document, Volume 1, describes how the PRA information available in Version 1.0 of PRISIM is useful for planning inspections. Using PRISIM, inspectors can quickly access PRA information and use that information to update risk analysis results, reflecting a plant's status at any particular time. Both volumes are stand-alone documents, and each volume presents several sample computer sessions designed to lead the user through a variety of PRISIM applications used to obtain PRA-related information for monitoring and controlling plant risk

Risk-based decision analysis for groundwater operable units

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chiaramonte, G.R.

1995-01-01

This document proposes a streamlined approach and methodology for performing risk assessment in support of interim remedial measure (IRM) decisions involving the remediation of contaminated groundwater on the Hanford Site. This methodology, referred to as ''risk-based decision analysis,'' also supports the specification of target cleanup volumes and provides a basis for design and operation of the groundwater remedies. The risk-based decision analysis can be completed within a short time frame and concisely documented. The risk-based decision analysis is more versatile than the qualitative risk assessment (QRA), because it not only supports the need for IRMs, but also provides criteria for defining the success of the IRMs and provides the risk-basis for decisions on final remedies. For these reasons, it is proposed that, for groundwater operable units, the risk-based decision analysis should replace the more elaborate, costly, and time-consuming QRA

Hippocampus and amygdala volumes in children and young adults at high-risk of schizophrenia: research synthesis.

Science.gov (United States)

Ganzola, Rossana; Maziade, Michel; Duchesne, Simon

2014-06-01

Studies have reported hippocampal and amygdala volume abnormalities in schizophrenic patients. It is necessary to explore the potential for these structures as early disease markers in subjects at high risk (HR) of schizophrenia. We performed a review of 29 magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) studies measuring hippocampal and amygdala volumes in subjects at HR for schizophrenia. We reclassified subjects in 3 new HR categories: presence of only risk symptoms (psychotic moderate symptoms), presence of only risk factors (genetic, developmental or environmental), and presence of combined risk symptoms/factors. Hippocampal volume reductions were detected in subjects with first episode (FE) of psychosis, in all young adults and in adolescents at HR of schizophrenia. The loss of tissue was mainly located in the posterior part of hippocampus and the right side seems more vulnerable in young adults with only risk symptoms. Instead, the anterior sector seems more involved in HR subjects with genetic risks. Abnormal amygdala volumes were found in FE subjects, in children with combined risk symptoms/factors and in older subjects using different inclusion criteria, but not in young adults. Hippocampal and amygdala abnormalities may be present before schizophrenia onset. Further studies should be conducted to clarify whether these abnormalities are causally or effectually related to neurodevelopment. Shape analysis could clarify the impact of environmental, genetic, and developmental factors on the medial temporal structures during the evolution of this disease. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Trends in comorbidity, acuity, and maternal risk associated with preeclampsia across obstetric volume settings.

Science.gov (United States)

Booker, Whitney A; Ananth, Cande V; Wright, Jason D; Siddiq, Zainab; D'Alton, Mary E; Cleary, Kirstin L; Goffman, Dena; Friedman, Alexander M

2018-03-12

The objective of this study was to characterize morbidity, acuity, and maternal risks associated with preeclampsia across hospitals with varying obstetric volumes. This retrospective cohort analysis used a large administrative data source, the Perspective database, to characterize the risk for preeclampsia from 2006 to 2015. Hospitals were classified as having either low (≤1000), moderate (1001-2000), or high (≥2000) delivery volume. The primary outcomes included preeclampsia, antihypertensive administration, comorbidity, and related severe maternal morbidity. Severe maternal morbidity was estimated using criteria from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Comorbidity was estimated using an obstetric comorbidity index. Univariable comparisons were made with Chi-squared test. Adjusted log linear regression models were fit to assess factors associated with severe morbidity with risk ratios with 95% confidence intervals as the measures of effect. Population weights were applied to create national estimates. Of 36,985,729 deliveries included, 1,414,484 (3.8%) had a diagnosis of preeclampsia. Of these, 779,511 (2.1%) had mild, 171,109 (0.5%) superimposed, and 463,864 (1.3%) severe preeclampsia. The prevalence of mild, superimposed, and severe preeclampsia each increased over the study period with severe and superimposed preeclampsia as opposed to mild preeclampsia increasing the most proportionately (53.2 and 102.5 versus 10.8%, respectively). The use of antihypertensives used to treat severe range hypertension increased with use of intravenous labetalol increasing 31.5%, 43.2%, and 36.1% at low-, medium-, and high-volume hospitals. Comorbid risk also increased across hospital volume settings as did risk for severe maternal morbidity. Preeclampsia is increasing across obstetric care settings with preeclamptic patients demonstrating increasing comorbid risk, increased risk for severe morbidity, and more frequent need for treatment of acute hypertension.

Bare-Hand Volume Cracker for Raw Volume Data Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bireswar Laha

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Analysis of raw volume data generated from different scanning technologies faces a variety of challenges, related to search, pattern recognition, spatial understanding, quantitative estimation, and shape description. In a previous study, we found that the Volume Cracker (VC 3D interaction (3DI technique mitigated some of these problems, but this result was from a tethered glove-based system with users analyzing simulated data. Here, we redesigned the VC by using untethered bare-hand interaction with real volume datasets, with a broader aim of adoption of this technique in research labs. We developed symmetric and asymmetric interfaces for the Bare-Hand Volume Cracker (BHVC through design iterations with a biomechanics scientist. We evaluated our asymmetric BHVC technique against standard 2D and widely used 3D interaction techniques with experts analyzing scanned beetle datasets. We found that our BHVC design significantly outperformed the other two techniques. This study contributes a practical 3DI design for scientists, documents lessons learned while redesigning for bare-hand trackers, and provides evidence suggesting that 3D interaction could improve volume data analysis for a variety of visual analysis tasks. Our contribution is in the realm of 3D user interfaces tightly integrated with visualization, for improving the effectiveness of visual analysis of volume datasets. Based on our experience, we also provide some insights into hardware-agnostic principles for design of effective interaction techniques.

Pituitary gland volume in patients with schizophrenia, subjects at ultra high-risk of developing psychosis and healthy controls: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Nordholm, Dorte; Krogh, Jesper; Mondelli, Valeria; Dazzan, Paola; Pariante, Carmine; Nordentoft, Merete

2013-11-01

A larger pituitary size is thought to reflect a greater activation of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis, which may be related to an increase in the number and size of corticotroph cells. Some studies, but not all, indicate that pituitary volume increases before or at the onset of psychosis. There is a need for at critical appraisal of the literature on this topic accompanied by a meta-analytical evaluation of the data. We included studies comparing the volume of the pituitary gland in healthy controls and patients with schizophrenia, first episode of psychosis (FEP), schizotypal disorder or ultra high-risk (UHR) subjects. We defined three groups of subjects for the analyses: healthy controls; UHR and schizotypal patients; and patients diagnosed with first episode of psychosis, schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder. Ten studies were included in the meta-analysis. We found a trend of a larger pituitary volume in both UHR subject who had transition to psychosis (p=0.05) and in FEP subjects (p=0.09) compared to healthy controls. There was no difference in pituitary volume between patients with schizophrenia combined with FEP versus healthy controls (p=0.52) or between UHR (with and without transition) and healthy controls (p=0.24). In a regression analysis, we demonstrated that the number of subjects receiving antipsychotics and pituitary volume were positively correlated. As previously reported in other samples, gender also had an impact on pituitary volume with females presenting with a larger mean volume. Results from this meta-analysis suggest that the pituitary gland could be increasing before the onset of psychosis. Both gender and use of antipsychotics have a major impact on the pituitary volume. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of severe accident risks: Methodology for the containment, source term, consequence, and risk integration analyses. Volume 1, Revision 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gorham, E.D.; Breeding, R.J.; Brown, T.D.; Harper, F.T.; Helton, J.C.; Murfin, W.B.; Hora, S.C.

1993-12-01

NUREG-1150 examines the risk to the public from five nuclear power plants. The NUREG-1150 plant studies are Level III probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) and, as such, they consist of four analysis components: accident frequency analysis, accident progression analysis, source term analysis, and consequence analysis. This volume summarizes the methods utilized in performing the last three components and the assembly of these analyses into an overall risk assessment. The NUREG-1150 analysis approach is based on the following ideas: (1) general and relatively fast-running models for the individual analysis components, (2) well-defined interfaces between the individual analysis components, (3) use of Monte Carlo techniques together with an efficient sampling procedure to propagate uncertainties, (4) use of expert panels to develop distributions for important phenomenological issues, and (5) automation of the overall analysis. Many features of the new analysis procedures were adopted to facilitate a comprehensive treatment of uncertainty in the complete risk analysis. Uncertainties in the accident frequency, accident progression and source term analyses were included in the overall uncertainty assessment. The uncertainties in the consequence analysis were not included in this assessment. A large effort was devoted to the development of procedures for obtaining expert opinion and the execution of these procedures to quantify parameters and phenomena for which there is large uncertainty and divergent opinions in the reactor safety community

Risk Analysis Approach to Rainwater Harvesting Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nadia Ursino

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Urban rainwater reuse preserves water resources and promotes sustainable development in rapidly growing urban areas. The efficiency of a large number of urban water reuse systems, operating under different climate and demand conditions, is evaluated here on the base of a new risk analysis approach. Results obtained by probability analysis (PA indicate that maximum efficiency in low demanding scenarios is above 0.5 and a threshold, distinguishing low from high demanding scenarios, indicates that in low demanding scenarios no significant improvement in performance may be attained by increasing the storage capacity of rainwater harvesting tanks. Threshold behaviour is displayed when tank storage capacity is designed to match both the average collected volume and the average reuse volume. The low demand limit cannot be achieved under climate and operating conditions characterized by a disproportion between harvesting and demand volume.

Price-volume multifractal analysis and its application in Chinese stock markets

Science.gov (United States)

Yuan, Ying; Zhuang, Xin-tian; Liu, Zhi-ying

2012-06-01

An empirical research on Chinese stock markets is conducted using statistical tools. First, the multifractality of stock price return series, ri(ri=ln(Pt+1)-ln(Pt)) and trading volume variation series, vi(vi=ln(Vt+1)-ln(Vt)) is confirmed using multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis. Furthermore, a multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis between stock price return and trading volume variation in Chinese stock markets is also conducted. It is shown that the cross relationship between them is also found to be multifractal. Second, the cross-correlation between stock price Pi and trading volume Vi is empirically studied using cross-correlation function and detrended cross-correlation analysis. It is found that both Shanghai stock market and Shenzhen stock market show pronounced long-range cross-correlations between stock price and trading volume. Third, a composite index R based on price and trading volume is introduced. Compared with stock price return series ri and trading volume variation series vi, R variation series not only remain the characteristics of original series but also demonstrate the relative correlation between stock price and trading volume. Finally, we analyze the multifractal characteristics of R variation series before and after three financial events in China (namely, Price Limits, Reform of Non-tradable Shares and financial crisis in 2008) in the whole period of sample to study the changes of stock market fluctuation and financial risk. It is found that the empirical results verified the validity of R.

Intraoperative ventilation: incidence and risk factors for receiving large tidal volumes during general anesthesia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fernandez-Bustamante Ana

2011-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background There is a growing concern of the potential injurious role of ventilatory over-distention in patients without lung injury. No formal guidelines exist for intraoperative ventilation settings, but the use of tidal volumes (VT under 10 mL/kg predicted body weight (PBW has been recommended in healthy patients. We explored the incidence and risk factors for receiving large tidal volumes (VT > 10 mL/kg PBW. Methods We performed a cross-sectional analysis of our prospectively collected perioperative electronic database for current intraoperative ventilation practices and risk factors for receiving large tidal volumes (VT > 10 mL/kg PBW. We included all adults undergoing prolonged (≥ 4 h elective abdominal surgery and collected demographic, preoperative (comorbidities, intraoperative (i.e. ventilatory settings, fluid administration and postoperative (outcomes information. We compared patients receiving exhaled tidal volumes > 10 mL/kg PBW with those that received 8-10 or Results Ventilatory settings were non-uniform in the 429 adults included in the analysis. 17.5% of all patients received VT > 10 mL/kg PBW. 34.0% of all obese patients (body mass index, BMI, ≥ 30, 51% of all patients with a height T > 10 mL/kg PBW. Conclusions Ventilation with VT > 10 mL/kg PBW is still common, although poor correlation with PBW suggests it may be unintentional. BMI ≥ 30, female gender and height

User's guide for PRISM (Plant Risk Status Information Management System) Arkansas Nuclear One-Unit 1: Volume 1, Program for inspectors

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Campbell, D.J.; Guthrie, V.H.; Kirchner, J.R.; Kirkman, J.Q.; Paula, H.M.; Ellison, B.C.; Dycus, F.M.; Farquharson, J.A.; Flanagan, G.F.

1988-03-01

This user's guide is a two-volume document designed to teach NRC inspectors and NRC regulators how to access probabilistic risk assessment information from the two Plant Risk Status Information Management System (PRISIM) programs developed for Arkansas Nuclear One -- Unit One (ANO-1). This document, Volume 1, describes how the PRA information available in Version 1.0 of PRISIM is useful for planning inspections. Using PRISIM, inspectors can quickly access PRA information and use that information to update risk analysis results, reflecting a plant's status at any particular time. Both volumes are stand-alone documents, and each volume presents several sample computer sessions designed to lead the user through a variety of PRISIM applications used to obtain PRA-related information for monitoring and controlling plant risk.

Risk Factors for Neovascular Glaucoma After Proton Beam Therapy of Uveal Melanoma: A Detailed Analysis of Tumor and Dose–Volume Parameters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mishra, Kavita K.; Daftari, Inder K.; Weinberg, Vivian; Cole, Tia; Quivey, Jeanne M.; Castro, Joseph R.; Phillips, Theodore L.; Char, Devron H.

2013-01-01

Purpose: To determine neovascular glaucoma (NVG) incidence and identify contributing tumor and dosing factors in uveal melanoma patients treated with proton beam radiation therapy (PBRT). Methods and Materials: A total of 704 PBRT patients treated by a single surgeon (DHC) for uveal melanoma (1996-2010) were reviewed for NVG in our prospectively maintained database. All patients received 56 GyE in 4 fractions. Median follow-up was 58.3 months. Analyses included the Kaplan-Meier method to estimate NVG distributions, univariate log–rank tests, and Cox's proportional hazards multivariate analysis using likelihood ratio tests to identify independent risk factors of NVG among patient, tumor, and dose–volume histogram parameters. Results: The 5-year PBRT NVG rate was 12.7% (95% confidence interval [CI] 10.2%-15.9%). The 5-year rate of enucleation due to NVG was 4.9% (95% CI 3.4%-7.2%). Univariately, the NVG rate increased significantly with larger tumor diameter (P 30% of the lens or ciliary body received ≥50% dose (≥28 GyE), there was a higher probability of NVG (P 0%-30% vs >30%) (P=.01), and optic nerve length treated to ≥90% Dose (≤1 mm vs >1 mm) (P=.02). Conclusions: Our current PBRT patients experience a low rate of NVG and resultant enucleation compared with historical data. The present analysis shows that tumor height, diameter, and anterior as well as posterior critical structure dose–volume parameters may be used to predict NVG risk

Estimation of pneumonitis risk in three-dimensional treatment planning using dose-volume histogram analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oetzel, Dieter; Schraube, Peter; Hensley, Frank; Sroka-Perez, Gabriele; Menke, Markus; Flentje, Michael

1995-01-01

Purpose: Investigations to study correlations between the estimations of biophysical models in three dimensional (3D) treatment planning and clinical observations are scarce. The development of clinically symptomatic pneumonitis in the radiotherapy of thoracic malignomas was chosen to test the predictive power of Lyman's normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) model for the assessment of side effects for nonuniform irradiation. Methods and Materials: In a retrospective analysis individual computed-tomography-based 3D dose distributions of a random sample of (46(20)) patients with lung/esophageal cancer were reconstructed. All patients received tumor doses between 50 and 60 Gy in a conventional treatment schedule. Biological isoeffective dose-volume histograms (DVHs) were used for the calculation of complication probabilities after applying Lyman's and Kutcher's DVH-reduction algorithm. Lung dose statistics were performed for single lung (involved ipsilateral and contralateral) and for the lung as a paired organ. Results: In the lung cancer group, about 20% of the patients (9 out of 46) developed pneumonitis 3-12 (median 7.5) weeks after completion of radiotherapy. For the majority of these lung cancer patients, the involved ipsilateral lung received a much higher dose than the contralateral lung, and the pneumonitis patients had on average a higher lung exposure with a doubling of the predicted complication risk (38% vs. 20%). The lower lung exposure for the esophagus patients resulted in a mean lung dose of 13.2 Gy (lung cancer: 20.5 Gy) averaged over all patients in correlation with an almost zero complication risk and only one observed case of pneumonitis (1 out of 20). To compare the pneumonitis risk estimations with observed complication rates, the patients were ranked into bins of mean ipsilateral lung dose. Particularly, in the bins with the highest patient numbers, a good correlation was achieved. Agreement was not reached for the lung functioning as

Weekly running volume and risk of running-related injuries among marathon runners

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Christina Haugaard; Nielsen, R.O.; Juul, Martin Serup

2013-01-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate if the risk of injury declines with increasing weekly running volume before a marathon race.......The purpose of this study was to investigate if the risk of injury declines with increasing weekly running volume before a marathon race....

Two Alzheimer’s disease risk genes increase entorhinal cortex volume in young adults

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amanda Marie Dibattista

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Alzheimer’s disease (AD risk genes alter brain structure and function decades before disease onset. Apolipoprotein E (APOE is the strongest known genetic risk factor for Alzheimer’s disease, and a related gene, apolipoprotein J (APOJ, also affects disease risk. However, the extent to which these genes affect brain structure in young adults remains unclear. Here, we report that AD risk alleles of these two genes, APOE-ε4 and APOJ-C, cumulatively alter brain volume in young adults. Using voxel-based morphometry in 57 individuals, we examined the entorhinal cortex, one of the earliest brain regions affected in AD pathogenesis. APOE-ε4 carriers exhibited higher right entorhinal cortex volume compared to non-carriers. Interestingly, APOJ-C risk genotype was associated with higher bilateral entorhinal cortex volume in non-APOE-ε4 carriers. To determine the combined disease risk of APOE and APOJ status per subject, we used cumulative odds ratios as regressors for volumetric measurements. Higher disease risk corresponded to greater right entorhinal cortex volume. These results suggest that, years before disease onset, two key AD genetic risk factors may exert influence on the structure of a brain region where AD pathogenesis takes root.

Two Alzheimer’s disease risk genes increase entorhinal cortex volume in young adults

Science.gov (United States)

DiBattista, Amanda Marie; Stevens, Benson W.; Rebeck, G. William; Green, Adam E.

2014-01-01

Alzheimer’s disease (AD) risk genes alter brain structure and function decades before disease onset. Apolipoprotein E (APOE) is the strongest known genetic risk factor for AD, and a related gene, apolipoprotein J (APOJ), also affects disease risk. However, the extent to which these genes affect brain structure in young adults remains unclear. Here, we report that AD risk alleles of these two genes, APOE-ε4 and APOJ-C, cumulatively alter brain volume in young adults. Using voxel-based morphometry (VBM) in 57 individuals, we examined the entorhinal cortex, one of the earliest brain regions affected in AD pathogenesis. Apolipoprotein E-ε4 carriers exhibited higher right entorhinal cortex volume compared to non-carriers. Interestingly, APOJ-C risk genotype was associated with higher bilateral entorhinal cortex volume in non-APOE-ε4 carriers. To determine the combined disease risk of APOE and APOJ status per subject, we used cumulative odds ratios as regressors for volumetric measurements. Higher disease risk corresponded to greater right entorhinal cortex volume. These results suggest that, years before disease onset, two key AD genetic risk factors may exert influence on the structure of a brain region where AD pathogenesis takes root. PMID:25339884

Weekly running volume and risk of running-related injuries among marathon runners

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Christina Haugaard; Nielsen, Rasmus Østergaard; Juul, Martin Serup

2013-01-01

PURPOSEBACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to investigate if the risk of injury declines with increasing weekly running volume before a marathon race.......PURPOSEBACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to investigate if the risk of injury declines with increasing weekly running volume before a marathon race....

ATWS: a reappraisal, part II, evaluation of societal risks due to reactor protection systems failure. Vol. 3. Pwr risk analysis. Phase report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lellouche, G.S.

1976-08-01

This document is the third volume of part 2 in a series of studies which will examine the basis for the problem of Anticipated Transients Without Scram (ATWS). The purpose of part 2 is an evaluation of societal risks due to RPS failure based on more current data and methodology than used in WASH-1270. This volume examines and documents the potential contribution to societal risk due to ATWS in the PWR. Volumes 1 and 2 described a similar analysis for the BWR

Increased brain iron deposition is a risk factor for brain atrophy in patients with haemodialysis: a combined study of quantitative susceptibility mapping and whole brain volume analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Chai, Chao; Zhang, Mengjie; Long, Miaomiao; Chu, Zhiqiang; Wang, Tong; Wang, Lijun; Guo, Yu; Yan, Shuo; Haacke, E Mark; Shen, Wen; Xia, Shuang

2015-08-01

To explore the correlation between increased brain iron deposition and brain atrophy in patients with haemodialysis and their correlation with clinical biomarkers and neuropsychological test. Forty two patients with haemodialysis and forty one age- and gender-matched healthy controls were recruited in this prospective study. 3D whole brain high resolution T1WI and susceptibility weighted imaging were scanned on a 3 T MRI system. The brain volume was analyzed using voxel-based morphometry (VBM) in patients and to compare with that of healthy controls. Quantitative susceptibility mapping was used to measure and compare the susceptibility of different structures between patients and healthy controls. Correlation analysis was used to investigate the relationship between the brain volume, iron deposition and neuropsychological scores. Stepwise multiple regression analysis was used to explore the effect of clinical biomarkers on the brain volumes in patients. Compared with healthy controls, patients with haemodialysis showed decreased volume of bilateral putamen and left insular lobe (All P brain iron deposition is negatively correlated with the decreased volume of bilateral putamen (P brain iron deposition and dialysis duration was risk factors for brain atrophy in patients with haemodialysis. The decreased gray matter volume of the left insular lobe was correlated with neurocognitive impairment.

Dose-volume histogram analysis for risk factors of radiation-induced rib fracture after hypofractionated proton beam therapy for hepatocellular carcinoma

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kanemoto, Ayae

2013-01-01

Background: Radiation-induced rib fracture has been reported as a late complication after external radiotherapy to the chest. The purpose of this study was to clarify the characteristics and risk factors of rib fracture after hypofractionated proton beam therapy (PBT). Material and methods: The retrospective study comprised 67 patients with hepatocellular carcinoma who were treated using PBT of 66 Cobalt-Gray-equivalents [Gy (RBE)] in 10 fractions. We analyzed the patients' characteristics and determined dose-volume histograms (DVHs) for the irradiated ribs, and then estimated relationships between risk of fracture and several dose-volume parameters. An irradiated rib was defined to be any rib included in the area irradiated by PBT as determined by treatment-planning computed tomography. Results. Among the 67 patients, a total of 310 ribs were identified as irradiated ribs. Twenty-seven (8.7%) of the irradiated ribs developed fractures in 11 patients (16.4%). No significant relationships were seen between incidence of fracture and characteristics of patients, including sex, age, tumor size, tumor site, and follow-up period (p ≥ 0.05). The results of receiver operating characteristic curve analysis using DVH parameters demonstrated that the largest area under the curve (AUC) was observed for the volume of rib receiving a biologically effective dose of more than 60 Gy 3 (RBE) (V60) [The equivalent dose in 2 Gy fractions (EQD2); 36 Gy 3 ] and the AUCs of V30 to V120 (EQD2; 18-72 Gy 3 ) and D max to D 1 0 cm 3 were similar to that of V60. No significant relationships were seen for DVH parameters and intervals from PBT to incidence of fracture. Conclusion. DVH parameters are useful in predicting late adverse events of rib irradiation. This study identified that V60 was a most statistically significant parameter, and V30 to V120 and D max to D 1 0 cm 3 were also significant and clinically useful for estimating the risk of rib fracture after hypofractionated PBT

Dose-volume histogram analysis for risk factors of radiation-induced rib fracture after hypofractionated proton beam therapy for hepatocellular carcinoma

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kanemoto, Ayae [Proton Medical Research Center and Dept. of Radiation Oncology, Univ. of Tsukuba, Ibaraki (Japan)], e-mail: ayaek@pmrc.tsukuba.ac.jp [and others

2013-04-15

Background: Radiation-induced rib fracture has been reported as a late complication after external radiotherapy to the chest. The purpose of this study was to clarify the characteristics and risk factors of rib fracture after hypofractionated proton beam therapy (PBT). Material and methods: The retrospective study comprised 67 patients with hepatocellular carcinoma who were treated using PBT of 66 Cobalt-Gray-equivalents [Gy (RBE)] in 10 fractions. We analyzed the patients' characteristics and determined dose-volume histograms (DVHs) for the irradiated ribs, and then estimated relationships between risk of fracture and several dose-volume parameters. An irradiated rib was defined to be any rib included in the area irradiated by PBT as determined by treatment-planning computed tomography. Results. Among the 67 patients, a total of 310 ribs were identified as irradiated ribs. Twenty-seven (8.7%) of the irradiated ribs developed fractures in 11 patients (16.4%). No significant relationships were seen between incidence of fracture and characteristics of patients, including sex, age, tumor size, tumor site, and follow-up period (p {>=} 0.05). The results of receiver operating characteristic curve analysis using DVH parameters demonstrated that the largest area under the curve (AUC) was observed for the volume of rib receiving a biologically effective dose of more than 60 Gy{sub 3} (RBE) (V60) [The equivalent dose in 2 Gy fractions (EQD2); 36 Gy{sub 3}] and the AUCs of V30 to V120 (EQD2; 18-72 Gy{sub 3}) and D{sub max} to D{sub 1}0{sub cm}{sup 3} were similar to that of V60. No significant relationships were seen for DVH parameters and intervals from PBT to incidence of fracture. Conclusion. DVH parameters are useful in predicting late adverse events of rib irradiation. This study identified that V60 was a most statistically significant parameter, and V30 to V120 and D{sub max} to D{sub 1}0{sub cm}{sup 3} were also significant and clinically useful for estimating

Hedging local volume risk using forward markets: Nordic case

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ernstsen, Rune Ramsdal; Boomsma, Trine Krogh; Tegner, Martin

2017-01-01

With focus on the Nordic electricity market, this paper develops hedging strategies for an electricity distributor who manages price and volume risk from fixed price agreements on stochastic electricity load. Whereas the distributor trades in the spot market at area prices, the financial contracts......, and we suggest various strategies for hedging in the presence of local volume risk. We benchmark against a strategy that ignores correlation and hedges at expected load, as is common practice in the industry. Using data from 2013 and 2014 for two Danish bidding areas, we show that our best hedging...... strategy reduces gross loss by 5.8% and 13.6% and increases gross profit by 3.8% and 9.5%, respectively. Although this is partly due to the inclusion of correlation, we show that performance improvement is mainly driven by the choice of risk measure....

Yucca Mountain transportation routes: Preliminary characterization and risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Souleyrette, R.R. II; Sathisan, S.K.; di Bartolo, R.

1991-01-01

This report presents appendices related to the preliminary assessment and risk analysis for high-level radioactive waste transportation routes to the proposed Yucca Mountain Project repository. Information includes data on population density, traffic volume, ecologically sensitive areas, and accident history

Risk analysis as a decision tool

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yadigaroglu, G.; Chakraborty, S.

1985-01-01

From 1983 - 1985 a lecture series entitled ''Risk-benefit analysis'' was held at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH), Zurich, in cooperation with the Central Department for the Safety of Nuclear Installations of the Swiss Federal Agency of Energy Economy. In that setting the value of risk-oriented evaluation models as a decision tool in safety questions was discussed on a broad basis. Experts of international reputation from the Federal Republic of Germany, France, Canada, the United States and Switzerland have contributed to report in this joint volume on the uses of such models. Following an introductory synopsis on risk analysis and risk assessment the book deals with practical examples in the fields of medicine, nuclear power, chemistry, transport and civil engineering. Particular attention is paid to the dialogue between analysts and decision makers taking into account the economic-technical aspects and social values. The recent chemical disaster in the Indian city of Bhopal again signals the necessity of such analyses. All the lectures were recorded individually. (orig./HP) [de

Tools for the analysis of dose optimization: I. Effect-volume histogram

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alber, M.; Nuesslin, F.

2002-01-01

With the advent of dose optimization algorithms, predominantly for intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT), computer software has progressed beyond the point of being merely a tool at the hands of an expert and has become an active, independent mediator of the dosimetric conflicts between treatment goals and risks. To understand and control the internal decision finding as well as to provide means to influence it, a tool for the analysis of the dose distribution is presented which reveals the decision-making process performed by the algorithm. The internal trade-offs between partial volumes receiving high or low doses are driven by functions which attribute a weight to each volume element. The statistics of the distribution of these weights is cast into an effect-volume histogram (EVH) in analogy to dose-volume histograms. The analysis of the EVH reveals which traits of the optimum dose distribution result from the defined objectives, and which are a random consequence of under- or misspecification of treatment goals. The EVH can further assist in the process of finding suitable objectives and balancing conflicting objectives. If biologically inspired objectives are used, the EVH shows the distribution of local dose effect relative to the prescribed level. (author)

Hospital volume and the risk of revision in Oxford unicompartmental knee arthroplasty in the Nordic countries -an observational study of 14,496 cases

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Badawy, Mona; Fenstad, Anne M.; Bartz-Johannessen, Christoffer A.

2017-01-01

Background: High procedure volume and dedication to unicompartmental knee arthroplasty (UKA) has been suggested to improve revision rates. This study aimed to quantify the annual hospital volume effect on revision risk in Oxfordu? nicompartmental knee arthroplasty in the Nordic countries. Methods......). The outcome was revision risk after 2 and 10 years calculated using Kaplan Meier method. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to assess the Hazard Ratio (HR) of any revision due to specific reasons with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results: The implant survival was 80% at 10 years in the volume...

Limitations of the planning organ at risk volume (PRV) concept.

Science.gov (United States)

Stroom, Joep C; Heijmen, Ben J M

2006-09-01

Previously, we determined a planning target volume (PTV) margin recipe for geometrical errors in radiotherapy equal to M(T) = 2 Sigma + 0.7 sigma, with Sigma and sigma standard deviations describing systematic and random errors, respectively. In this paper, we investigated margins for organs at risk (OAR), yielding the so-called planning organ at risk volume (PRV). For critical organs with a maximum dose (D(max)) constraint, we calculated margins such that D(max) in the PRV is equal to the motion averaged D(max) in the (moving) clinical target volume (CTV). We studied margins for the spinal cord in 10 head-and-neck cases and 10 lung cases, each with two different clinical plans. For critical organs with a dose-volume constraint, we also investigated whether a margin recipe was feasible. For the 20 spinal cords considered, the average margin recipe found was: M(R) = 1.6 Sigma + 0.2 sigma with variations for systematic and random errors of 1.2 Sigma to 1.8 Sigma and -0.2 sigma to 0.6 sigma, respectively. The variations were due to differences in shape and position of the dose distributions with respect to the cords. The recipe also depended significantly on the volume definition of D(max). For critical organs with a dose-volume constraint, the PRV concept appears even less useful because a margin around, e.g., the rectum changes the volume in such a manner that dose-volume constraints stop making sense. The concept of PRV for planning of radiotherapy is of limited use. Therefore, alternative ways should be developed to include geometric uncertainties of OARs in radiotherapy planning.

Radiation-Induced Rib Fractures After Hypofractionated Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy: Risk Factors and Dose-Volume Relationship

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Asai, Kaori [Department of Clinical Radiology, Graduate School of Medical Sciences, Kyushu University, Fukuoka (Japan); Shioyama, Yoshiyuki, E-mail: shioyama@radiol.med.kyushu-u.ac.jp [Department of Heavy Particle Therapy and Radiation Oncology, Graduate School of Medical Sciences, Kyushu University, Fukuoka (Japan); Nakamura, Katsumasa; Sasaki, Tomonari; Ohga, Saiji; Nonoshita, Takeshi [Department of Clinical Radiology, Graduate School of Medical Sciences, Kyushu University, Fukuoka (Japan); Yoshitake, Tadamasa [Department of Heavy Particle Therapy and Radiation Oncology, Graduate School of Medical Sciences, Kyushu University, Fukuoka (Japan); Ohnishi, Kayoko [Department of Radiology, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, Tokyo (Japan); Terashima, Kotaro; Matsumoto, Keiji [Department of Clinical Radiology, Graduate School of Medical Sciences, Kyushu University, Fukuoka (Japan); Hirata, Hideki [Department of Health Sciences, Graduate School of Medical Sciences, Kyushu University, Fukuoka (Japan); Honda, Hiroshi [Department of Clinical Radiology, Graduate School of Medical Sciences, Kyushu University, Fukuoka (Japan)

2012-11-01

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to clarify the incidence, the clinical risk factors, and the dose-volume relationship of radiation-induced rib fracture (RIRF) after hypofractionated stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT). Methods and Materials: One hundred sixteen patients treated with SBRT for primary or metastatic lung cancer at our institution, with at least 6 months of follow-up and no previous overlapping radiation exposure, were included in this study. To determine the clinical risk factors associated with RIRF, correlations between the incidence of RIRF and the variables, including age, sex, diagnosis, gross tumor volume diameter, rib-tumor distance, and use of steroid administration, were analyzed. Dose-volume histogram analysis was also conducted. Regarding the maximum dose, V10, V20, V30, and V40 of the rib, and the incidences of RIRF were compared between the two groups divided by the cutoff value determined by the receiver operating characteristic curves. Results: One hundred sixteen patients and 374 ribs met the inclusion criteria. Among the 116 patients, 28 patients (46 ribs) experienced RIRF. The estimated incidence of rib fracture was 37.7% at 3 years. Limited distance from the rib to the tumor (<2.0 cm) was the only significant risk factor for RIRF (p = 0.0001). Among the dosimetric parameters used for receiver operating characteristic analysis, the maximum dose showed the highest area under the curve. The 3-year estimated risk of RIRF and the determined cutoff value were 45.8% vs. 1.4% (maximum dose, {>=}42.4 Gy or less), 51.6% vs. 2.0% (V40, {>=}0.29 cm{sup 3} or less), 45.8% vs. 2.2% (V30, {>=}1.35 cm{sup 3} or less), 42.0% vs. 8.5% (V20, {>=}3.62 cm{sup 3} or less), or 25.9% vs. 10.5% (V10, {>=}5.03 cm{sup 3} or less). Conclusions: The incidence of RIRF after hypofractionated SBRT is relatively high. The maximum dose and high-dose volume are strongly correlated with RIRF.

Substance use and regional gray matter volume in individuals at high risk of psychosis

OpenAIRE

Stone, James; Bhattacharyya, Sagnik; Barker, Gareth J; McGuire, Philip K; Bhattacharyya, Sagnik

2012-01-01

Individuals with an at risk mental state (ARMS) are at greatly increased risk of developing a psychotic illness. Risk of transition to psychosis is associated with regionally reduced cortical gray matter volume. There has been considerable interest in the interaction between psychosis risk and substance use. In this study we investigate the relationship between alcohol, cannabis and nicotine use with gray matter volume in ARMS subjects and healthy volunteers. Twenty seven ARMS subjects and 27...

Involved Node, Site, Field and Residual Volume Radiotherapy for Lymphoma: A Comparison of Organ at Risk Dosimetry and Second Malignancy Risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Murray, L; Sethugavalar, B; Robertshaw, H; Bayman, E; Thomas, E; Gilson, D; Prestwich, R J D

2015-07-01

Recent radiotherapy guidelines for lymphoma have included involved site radiotherapy (ISRT), involved node radiotherapy (INRT) and irradiation of residual volume after full-course chemotherapy. In the absence of late toxicity data, we aim to compare organ at risk (OAR) dose-metrics and calculated second malignancy risks. Fifteen consecutive patients who had received mediastinal radiotherapy were included. Four radiotherapy plans were generated for each patient using a parallel pair photon technique: (i) involved field radiotherapy (IFRT), (ii) ISRT, (iii) INRT, (iv) residual post-chemotherapy volume. The radiotherapy dose was 30 Gy in 15 fractions. The OARs evaluated were: breasts, lungs, thyroid, heart, oesophagus. Relative and absolute second malignancy rates were estimated using the concept of organ equivalent dose. Significance was defined as P risks of second cancers were significantly higher with IFRT compared with ISRT for lung, breast and thyroid; INRT and residual volume resulted in significantly lower relative risks compared with ISRT for lung, breast and thyroid. The median excess absolute risks of second cancers were consistently lowest for the residual technique and highest for IFRT in terms of thyroid, lung and breast cancers. The risk of oesophageal cancer was similar for all four techniques. Overall, the absolute risk of second cancers was very similar for ISRT and INRT. Decreasing treatment volumes from IFRT to ISRT, INRT or residual volume reduces radiation exposure to OARs. Second malignancy modelling suggests that this reduction in treatment volumes will lead to a reduction in absolute excess second malignancy. Little difference was observed in second malignancy risks between ISRT and INRT, supporting the use of ISRT in the absence of a pre-chemotherapy positron emission tomography scan in the radiotherapy treatment position. Copyright © 2015 The Royal College of Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The effects of contrast media volume on acute kidney injury after transcatheter aortic valve replacement: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Thongprayoon, Charat; Cheungpasitporn, Wisit; Podboy, Alexander J; Gillaspie, Erin A; Greason, Kevin L; Kashani, Kianoush B

2016-11-01

The goal of this systematic review was to assess the effects of contrast media volume on transcatheter aortic valve replacement-related acute kidney injury. A literature search was performed using Medline, EMbase, the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and clinicaltrials.gov from the inception of these databases through December 2015. Studies that reported relative risk, odds ratio, or hazard ratio comparing the risks of acute kidney injury following transcatheter aortic valve replacement in patients who received high contrast media volume were included. Pooled risk ratio (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated using a random-effect, generic inverse variance method. Four cohort studies composed of 891 patients were included in the analyses to assess the risk of acute kidney injury after transcatheter aortic valve replacement in patients who received high contrast media volume. The pooled RR of acute kidney injury after transcatheter aortic valve replacement in patients who received a large volume of contrast media was 1.41 (95% CI, 0.87 to 2.28) compared with low contrast media volume. The meta-analysis was limited to studies using standard acute kidney injury definitions, and the pooled RR of acute kidney injury in patients who received high contrast media volume is 1.12 (95% CI, 0.78 to 1.62). Our meta-analysis shows no significant association between contrast media volume and risk of acute kidney injury after transcatheter aortic valve replacement. © 2016 Chinese Cochrane Center, West China Hospital of Sichuan University and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Recurrence interval analysis of trading volumes.

Science.gov (United States)

Ren, Fei; Zhou, Wei-Xing

2010-06-01

We study the statistical properties of the recurrence intervals τ between successive trading volumes exceeding a certain threshold q. The recurrence interval analysis is carried out for the 20 liquid Chinese stocks covering a period from January 2000 to May 2009, and two Chinese indices from January 2003 to April 2009. Similar to the recurrence interval distribution of the price returns, the tail of the recurrence interval distribution of the trading volumes follows a power-law scaling, and the results are verified by the goodness-of-fit tests using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) statistic, the weighted KS statistic and the Cramér-von Mises criterion. The measurements of the conditional probability distribution and the detrended fluctuation function show that both short-term and long-term memory effects exist in the recurrence intervals between trading volumes. We further study the relationship between trading volumes and price returns based on the recurrence interval analysis method. It is found that large trading volumes are more likely to occur following large price returns, and the comovement between trading volumes and price returns is more pronounced for large trading volumes.

Dose-volume histogram analysis as predictor of radiation pneumonitis in primary lung cancer patients treated with radiotherapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fay, Michael; Tan, Alex; Fisher, Richard; Mac Manus, Michael; Wirth, Andrew; Ball, David

2005-01-01

Purpose: To determine the relationship between various parameters derived from lung dose-volume histogram analysis and the risk of symptomatic radiation pneumonitis (RP) in patients undergoing radical radiotherapy for primary lung cancer. Methods and Materials: The records of 156 patients with lung cancer who had been treated with radical radiotherapy (≥45 Gy) and for whom dose-volume histogram data were available were reviewed. The incidence of symptomatic RP was correlated with a variety of parameters derived from the dose-volume histogram data, including the volume of lung receiving 10 Gy (V 10 ) through 50 Gy (V 50 ) and the mean lung dose (MLD). Results: The rate of RP at 6 months was 15% (95% confidence interval 9-22%). On univariate analysis, only V 30 (p = 0.036) and MLD (p = 0.043) were statistically significantly related to RP. V 30 correlated highly positively with MLD (r = 0.96, p 30 and MLD can be used to predict the risk of RP in lung cancer patients undergoing radical radiotherapy

Dose-volume complication analysis for visual pathway structures of patients with advanced paranasal sinus tumors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martel, Mary Kaye; Sandler, Howard M.; Cornblath, Wayne T.; Marsh, Lon H.; Hazuka, Mark B.; Roa, Wilson H.; Fraass, Benedict A.; Lichter, Allen S.

1997-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of the present work was to relate dose and volume information to complication data for visual pathway structures in patients with advanced paranasal sinus tumors. Methods and Materials: Three-dimensional (3D) dose distributions for chiasm, optic nerve, and retina were calculated and analyzed for 20 patients with advanced paranasal sinus malignant tumors. 3D treatment planning with beam's eye view capability was used to design beam and block arrangements, striving to spare the contralateral orbit (to lessen the chance of unilateral blindness) and frequently the ipsilateral orbit (to help prevent bilateral blindness). Point doses, dose-volume histogram analysis, and normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) calculations were performed. Published tolerance doses that indicate significant risk of complications were used as guidelines for analysis of the 3D dose distributions. Results: Point doses, percent volume exceeding a specified published tolerance dose, and NTCP calculations are given in detail for patients with complications versus patients without complications. Two optic nerves receiving maximum doses below the published tolerance dose sustained damage (mild vision loss). Three patients (of 13) without optic nerve sparing and/or chiasm sparing had moderate or severe vision loss. Complication data, including individual patient analysis to estimate overall risk for loss of vision, are given. Conclusion: 3D treatment planning techniques were used successfully to provide bilateral sparing of the globe for most patients. It was more difficult to spare the optic nerves, especially on the ipsilateral side, when prescription dose exceeded the normal tissue tolerance doses. NTCP calculations may be useful in assessing complication risk better than point dose tolerance criteria for the chiasm, optic nerve, and retina. It is important to assess the overall risk of blindness for the patient in addition to the risk for individual visual pathway

Underground Test Area Subproject Phase I Data Analysis Task. Volume VII - Tritium Transport Model Documentation Package

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

None

1996-12-01

Volume VII of the documentation for the Phase I Data Analysis Task performed in support of the current Regional Flow Model, Transport Model, and Risk Assessment for the Nevada Test Site Underground Test Area Subproject contains the tritium transport model documentation. Because of the size and complexity of the model area, a considerable quantity of data was collected and analyzed in support of the modeling efforts. The data analysis task was consequently broken into eight subtasks, and descriptions of each subtask's activities are contained in one of the eight volumes that comprise the Phase I Data Analysis Documentation.

Pituitary gland volume and psychosocial stress among children at elevated risk for schizophrenia.

Science.gov (United States)

Cullen, A E; Day, F L; Roberts, R E; Pariante, C M; Laurens, K R

2015-11-01

Pituitary volume enlargements have been observed among individuals with first-episode psychosis. These abnormalities are suggestive of hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis hyperactivity, which may contribute to the development of psychosis. However, the extent to which these abnormalities characterize individuals at elevated risk for schizophrenia prior to illness onset is currently unclear, as volume increases, decreases and no volume differences have all been reported relative to controls. The current study aimed to determine whether antipsychotic-naive, putatively at-risk children who present multiple antecedents of schizophrenia (ASz) or a family history of illness (FHx) show pituitary volume abnormalities relative to typically developing (TD) children. An additional aim was to explore the association between pituitary volume and experiences of psychosocial stress. ASz (n = 30), FHx (n = 22) and TD (n = 32) children were identified at age 9-12 years using a novel community-screening procedure or as relatives of individuals with schizophrenia. Measures of pituitary volume and psychosocial stress were obtained at age 11-14 years. Neither ASz nor FHx children showed differences in pituitary volume relative to TD children. Among FHx children only, pituitary volume was negatively associated with current distress relating to negative life events and exposure to physical punishment. The lack of pituitary volume abnormalities among ASz and FHx children is consistent with our previous work demonstrating that these children are not characterized by elevated diurnal cortisol levels. The findings imply that these biological markers of HPA axis hyperactivity, observed in some older samples of high-risk individuals, may emerge later, more proximally to disease onset.

Mean platelet volume as a risk stratification tool in the Emergency Department for evaluating patients with ischaemic stroke and TIA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dogan, N.O.; Karakurt, K.

2013-01-01

Objective: To investigate the variations of mean platelet volume in patients with ischaemic cerebrovascular complaints, and to find out its diagnostic utility in an acute setting to help risk stratification in patients with ischaemic stroke and transient ischaemic attacks. Methods: The prospective cross-sectional study was conducted at the Gazi University Hospital, Ankara, Turkey, from November 2009 to June 2010. It comprised 143 consecutive patients of acute ischaemic stroke, 39 patients of transient ischaemic attacks and 60 healthy volunteers. SPSS 13 was used for statistical analysis, and so were t-test, one-way analysis of variance test and correlation analysis. Statistical significance was accepted at p <0.05. Results: Mean platelet volume results were significantly higher in patients with cortical infarction and transient ischaemic attack compared to the control group (p <0.001 and p <0.002). A statistically significant increase was also noted in hospitalised patients when compared with discharged patients from the emergency department (p <0.036). A weak positive correlation was identified between the National Institute of Health Stroke Scores and mean platelet volume levels (r=0.207; p <0.001). A significant relationship was identified between mean platelet volume levels and previous stroke (p <0.005). Conclusion: The measurement of mean platelet volume levels may provide useful diagnostic and prognostic information to emergency physicians caring for patients with transient ischaemic attack and ischaemic stroke. In patients with suspected neurological ischaemic symptoms, high levels may be considered as an atherosclerotic risk factor. (author)

MEAN PLATELET VOLUME AND RISK OF THROMBOTIC STROKE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Prasantha Kumar Thankappan

2017-07-01

Full Text Available BACKGROUND Stroke is a major cause of long term morbidity and mortality. Several factors are known to increase the liability to stroke. Platelets play a crucial role in the pathogenesis of atherosclerotic complications, contributing to thrombus formation. Platelet size (mean platelet volume, MPV is a marker and possible determinant of platelet function, large platelets being potentially more reactive. Hence an attempt has-been made to study the association if any between mean platelet volume and thrombotic stroke. The aim of this study was to determine whether an association exists between Mean Platelet Volume (MPV and thrombotic stroke. MATERIALS AND METHODS The study is a case control study and data was collected at Government Medical College Hospital, Kottayam, Kerala a tertiary care referral centre. The study was carried out among fifty patients diagnosed with thrombotic stroke and presenting to the hospital within forty eight hours of onset of symptoms. Fifty age group and sex matched controls were also recruited. Mean platelet volume was obtained using a SYSMEX automated analyser. RESULTS This study has shown a statistically significant relation between mean platelet volume and risk of thrombotic stroke but no statistically significant correlation between clinical severity of stroke and mean platelet volume. CONCLUSION This study has shown an elevation of MPV in acute phase of thrombotic stroke. Platelet mass was found to be more or less a constant. This study did not find a statistically significant correlation between clinical severity of stroke and mean platelet volume.

Environmental risk analysis of hazardous material rail transportation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Saat, Mohd Rapik, E-mail: mohdsaat@illinois.edu [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1243 Newmark Civil Engineering Laboratory, 205 North Mathews Avenue, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); Werth, Charles J.; Schaeffer, David [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1243 Newmark Civil Engineering Laboratory, 205 North Mathews Avenue, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); Yoon, Hongkyu [Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM 87123 (United States); Barkan, Christopher P.L. [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1243 Newmark Civil Engineering Laboratory, 205 North Mathews Avenue, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States)

2014-01-15

Highlights: • Comprehensive, nationwide risk assessment of hazardous material rail transportation. • Application of a novel environmental (i.e. soil and groundwater) consequence model. • Cleanup cost and total shipment distance are the most significant risk factors. • Annual risk varies from $20,000 to $560,000 for different products. • Provides information on the risk cost associated with specific product shipments. -- Abstract: An important aspect of railroad environmental risk management involves tank car transportation of hazardous materials. This paper describes a quantitative, environmental risk analysis of rail transportation of a group of light, non-aqueous-phase liquid (LNAPL) chemicals commonly transported by rail in North America. The Hazardous Materials Transportation Environmental Consequence Model (HMTECM) was used in conjunction with a geographic information system (GIS) analysis of environmental characteristics to develop probabilistic estimates of exposure to different spill scenarios along the North American rail network. The risk analysis incorporated the estimated clean-up cost developed using the HMTECM, route-specific probability distributions of soil type and depth to groundwater, annual traffic volume, railcar accident rate, and tank car safety features, to estimate the nationwide annual risk of transporting each product. The annual risk per car-mile (car-km) and per ton-mile (ton-km) was also calculated to enable comparison between chemicals and to provide information on the risk cost associated with shipments of these products. The analysis and the methodology provide a quantitative approach that will enable more effective management of the environmental risk of transporting hazardous materials.

Environmental risk analysis of hazardous material rail transportation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saat, Mohd Rapik; Werth, Charles J.; Schaeffer, David; Yoon, Hongkyu; Barkan, Christopher P.L.

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Comprehensive, nationwide risk assessment of hazardous material rail transportation. • Application of a novel environmental (i.e. soil and groundwater) consequence model. • Cleanup cost and total shipment distance are the most significant risk factors. • Annual risk varies from $20,000 to $560,000 for different products. • Provides information on the risk cost associated with specific product shipments. -- Abstract: An important aspect of railroad environmental risk management involves tank car transportation of hazardous materials. This paper describes a quantitative, environmental risk analysis of rail transportation of a group of light, non-aqueous-phase liquid (LNAPL) chemicals commonly transported by rail in North America. The Hazardous Materials Transportation Environmental Consequence Model (HMTECM) was used in conjunction with a geographic information system (GIS) analysis of environmental characteristics to develop probabilistic estimates of exposure to different spill scenarios along the North American rail network. The risk analysis incorporated the estimated clean-up cost developed using the HMTECM, route-specific probability distributions of soil type and depth to groundwater, annual traffic volume, railcar accident rate, and tank car safety features, to estimate the nationwide annual risk of transporting each product. The annual risk per car-mile (car-km) and per ton-mile (ton-km) was also calculated to enable comparison between chemicals and to provide information on the risk cost associated with shipments of these products. The analysis and the methodology provide a quantitative approach that will enable more effective management of the environmental risk of transporting hazardous materials

Stereological analysis of nuclear volume in recurrent meningiomas

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, C; Schrøder, H D

1994-01-01

A stereological estimation of nuclear volume in recurrent and non-recurrent meningiomas was made. The aim was to investigate whether this method could discriminate between these two groups. We found that the mean nuclear volumes in recurrent meningiomas were all larger at debut than in any...... of the control tumors. The mean nuclear volume of the individual recurrent tumors appeared to change with time, showing a tendency to diminish. A relationship between large nuclear volume at presentation and number of or time interval between recurrences was not found. We conclude that measurement of mean...... nuclear volume in meningiomas might help identify a group at risk of recurrence....

MPCV Exercise Operational Volume Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Godfrey, A.; Humphreys, B.; Funk, J.; Perusek, G.; Lewandowski, B. E.

2017-01-01

In order to minimize the loss of bone and muscle mass during spaceflight, the Multi-purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) will include an exercise device and enough free space within the cabin for astronauts to use the device effectively. The NASA Digital Astronaut Project (DAP) has been tasked with using computational modeling to aid in determining whether or not the available operational volume is sufficient for in-flight exercise.Motion capture data was acquired using a 12-camera Smart DX system (BTS Bioengineering, Brooklyn, NY), while exercisers performed 9 resistive exercises without volume restrictions in a 1g environment. Data were collected from two male subjects, one being in the 99th percentile of height and the other in the 50th percentile of height, using between 25 and 60 motion capture markers. Motion capture data was also recorded as a third subject, also near the 50th percentile in height, performed aerobic rowing during a parabolic flight. A motion capture system and algorithms developed previously and presented at last years HRP-IWS were utilized to collect and process the data from the parabolic flight [1]. These motions were applied to a scaled version of a biomechanical model within the biomechanical modeling software OpenSim [2], and the volume sweeps of the motions were visually assessed against an imported CAD model of the operational volume. Further numerical analysis was performed using Matlab (Mathworks, Natick, MA) and the OpenSim API. This analysis determined the location of every marker in space over the duration of the exercise motion, and the distance of each marker to the nearest surface of the volume. Containment of the exercise motions within the operational volume was determined on a per-exercise and per-subject basis. The orientation of the exerciser and the angle of the footplate were two important factors upon which containment was dependent. Regions where the exercise motion exceeds the bounds of the operational volume have been

Stormwater Volume Control to Prevent Increases in Lake Flooding and Dam Failure Risk

Science.gov (United States)

Potter, K. W.

2017-12-01

Urban expansion is not often considered a major factor contributing to dam failure. But if urbanization occurs without mitigation of the hydrologic impacts, the risk of dam failure will increase. Of particular concern are increases in the volume of storm runoff resulting from increases in the extent of impervious surfaces. Storm runoff volumes are not regulated for much the U.S, and where they are, the required control is commonly less than 100%. Unmitigated increases in runoff volume due to urbanization can pose a risk to dams. A recent technical advisory committee of Dane County has recommended that the county require 100% control of stormwater volumes for new developments. The primary motivation was to prevent increases in the water levels in the Yahara Lakes, slowly draining lakes that are highly sensitive to runoff volume. The recommendations included the use of "volume trading" to achieve efficient compliance. Such recommendations should be considered for other slowly draining lakes, including those created by artificial structures.

Risk factors for radiation pneumonitis after stereotactic radiation therapy for lung tumours: clinical usefulness of the planning target volume to total lung volume ratio.

Science.gov (United States)

Ueyama, Tomoko; Arimura, Takeshi; Takumi, Koji; Nakamura, Fumihiko; Higashi, Ryutaro; Ito, Soichiro; Fukukura, Yoshihiko; Umanodan, Tomokazu; Nakajo, Masanori; Koriyama, Chihaya; Yoshiura, Takashi

2018-06-01

To identify risk factors for symptomatic radiation pneumonitis (RP) after stereotactic radiation therapy (SRT) for lung tumours. We retrospectively evaluated 68 lung tumours in 63 patients treated with SRT between 2011 and 2015. RP was graded according to the National Cancer Institute-Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events version 4.0. SRT was delivered at 7.0-12.0 Gy per each fraction, once daily, to a total of 48-64 Gy (median, 50 Gy). Univariate analysis was performed to assess patient- and treatment-related factors, including age, sex, smoking index (SI), pulmonary function, tumour location, serum Krebs von den Lungen-6 value (KL-6), dose-volume metrics (V5, V10, V20, V30, V40 and VS5), homogeneity index of the planning target volume (PTV), PTV dose, mean lung dose (MLD), contralateral MLD and V2, PTV volume, lung volume and the PTV/lung volume ratio (PTV/Lung). Performance of PTV/Lung in predicting symptomatic RP was also analysed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. The median follow-up period was 21 months. 10 of 63 patients (15.9%) developed symptomatic RP after SRT. On univariate analysis, V10, V20, PTV volume and PTV/Lung were significantly associated with occurrence of RP  ≥Grade 2. ROC curves indicated that symptomatic RP could be predicted using PTV/Lung [area under curve (AUC): 0.88, confidence interval (CI: 0.78-0.95), cut-off value: 1.09, sensitivity: 90.0% and specificity: 72.4%]. PTV/Lung is a good predictor of symptomatic RP after SRT. Advances in knowledge: The cases with high PTV/Lung should be carefully monitored with caution for the occurrence of RP after SRT.

Risk for affective disorders is associated with greater prefrontal gray matter volumes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Macoveanu, Julian; Baaré, William Frans Christian; Madsen, Kristoffer H

2018-01-01

Background: Major depression and bipolar disorders aggregates in families and are linked with a wide range ofneurobiological abnormalities including cortical gray matter (GM) alterations. Prospective studies of individualsat familial risk may expose the neural mechanisms underlying risk...... inferior frontal cortex compared to high- and low-risk twins who remainedwell at follow-up.Conclusion: This pattern of apparently stable grater regional GM volume may constitute a neural marker of anincreased risk for developing an affective disorder in individuals at familial risk....... transmission.Methods: We used voxel based morphometry to investigate changes in regional GM brain volume, over a seven-year period, in 37 initially healthy individuals having a mono- or di-zygotic twin diagnosed with major de-pression or bipolar disorder (high-risk group; mean age 41.6 yrs.) as compared to 36...

Understanding PSA and its derivatives in prediction of tumor volume: Addressing health disparities in prostate cancer risk stratification.

Science.gov (United States)

Chinea, Felix M; Lyapichev, Kirill; Epstein, Jonathan I; Kwon, Deukwoo; Smith, Paul Taylor; Pollack, Alan; Cote, Richard J; Kryvenko, Oleksandr N

2017-03-28

To address health disparities in risk stratification of U.S. Hispanic/Latino men by characterizing influences of prostate weight, body mass index, and race/ethnicity on the correlation of PSA derivatives with Gleason score 6 (Grade Group 1) tumor volume in a diverse cohort. Using published PSA density and PSA mass density cutoff values, men with higher body mass indices and prostate weights were less likely to have a tumor volume PSA derivatives when predicting for tumor volume. In receiver operator characteristic analysis, area under the curve values for all PSA derivatives varied across race/ethnicity with lower optimal cutoff values for Hispanic/Latino (PSA=2.79, PSA density=0.06, PSA mass=0.37, PSA mass density=0.011) and Non-Hispanic Black (PSA=3.75, PSA density=0.07, PSA mass=0.46, PSA mass density=0.008) compared to Non-Hispanic White men (PSA=4.20, PSA density=0.11 PSA mass=0.53, PSA mass density=0.014). We retrospectively analyzed 589 patients with low-risk prostate cancer at radical prostatectomy. Pre-operative PSA, patient height, body weight, and prostate weight were used to calculate all PSA derivatives. Receiver operating characteristic curves were constructed for each PSA derivative per racial/ethnic group to establish optimal cutoff values predicting for tumor volume ≥0.5 cm3. Increasing prostate weight and body mass index negatively influence PSA derivatives for predicting tumor volume. PSA derivatives' ability to predict tumor volume varies significantly across race/ethnicity. Hispanic/Latino and Non-Hispanic Black men have lower optimal cutoff values for all PSA derivatives, which may impact risk assessment for prostate cancer.

Bladder volume at onset of vesicoureteral reflux is an independent risk factor for breakthrough febrile urinary tract infection.

Science.gov (United States)

Alexander, Siobhan E; Arlen, Angela M; Storm, Douglas W; Kieran, Kathleen; Cooper, Christopher S

2015-04-01

Improved identification of children with vesicoureteral reflux at risk for recurrent febrile urinary tract infection may impact management decisions. We hypothesized that reflux occurring earlier during bladder filling increases the duration of exposure of the kidneys to bacteria, and, therefore, increases the risk of pyelonephritis. Children with vesicoureteral reflux and detailed voiding cystourethrogram data were identified. Bladder volume at onset of reflux was normalized for age. Demographics, reflux grade, laterality, presence/absence of bladder-bowel dysfunction and breakthrough febrile urinary tract infections were assessed. Median followup was 24 months (IQR 12 to 52). A total of 208 girls and 47 boys were analyzed with a mean ± SD age at diagnosis of 3.1 ± 2.6 years. On univariate analysis history of febrile urinary tract infection (HR 2.17, 95% CI 1.33-2.85, p = 0.01), dilating vesicoureteral reflux (HR 1.6, 95% CI 1.05-2.42, p = 0.03) and bladder-bowel dysfunction (HR 1.66, 95% CI 0.99-2.75, p = 0.05) were associated with an increased risk of breakthrough febrile urinary tract infection. Median bladder volume at onset of reflux in children with breakthrough febrile urinary tract infection was significantly less (33.1%) than in those without infection (49.5%, p = 0.003). Reflux onset at 35% predicted bladder capacity or less was associated with a significantly increased risk of breakthrough febrile urinary tract infection on multivariate analysis (HR 1.58, 95% CI 1.05-2.38, p = 0.03). Children with early filling vesicoureteral reflux are at increased risk for breakthrough febrile urinary tract infection independent of reflux grade. Bladder volume at onset of reflux should be recorded during cystograms since it provides additional prognostic information about the risk of pyelonephritis and resolution, and may assist with counseling and clinical decision making. Copyright © 2015 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by

Substance use and regional gray matter volume in individuals at high risk of psychosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Stone, James M; Bhattacharyya, Sagnik; Barker, Gareth J; McGuire, Philip K

2012-02-01

Individuals with an at risk mental state (ARMS) are at greatly increased risk of developing a psychotic illness. Risk of transition to psychosis is associated with regionally reduced cortical gray matter volume. There has been considerable interest in the interaction between psychosis risk and substance use. In this study we investigate the relationship between alcohol, cannabis and nicotine use with gray matter volume in ARMS subjects and healthy volunteers. Twenty seven ARMS subjects and 27 healthy volunteers took part in the study. All subjects underwent volumetric MRI imaging. The relationship between regional gray matter volume and cannabis use, smoking, and alcohol use in controls and ARMS subjects was analysed using voxel-based morphometry. In any region where a significant relationship with drug was present, data were analysed to determine if there was any group difference in this relationship. Alcohol intake was inversely correlated with gray matter volume in cerebellum, cannabis intake was use was inversely correlated with gray matter volume in prefrontal cortex and tobacco intake was inversely correlated with gray matter volume in left temporal cortex. There were no significant interactions by group in any region. There is no evidence to support the hypothesis of increased susceptibility to harmful effects of drugs and alcohol on regional gray matter in ARMS subjects. However, alcohol, tobacco and cannabis at low to moderate intake may be associated with lower gray matter in both ARMS subjects and healthy volunteers-possibly representing low-level cortical damage or change in neural plasticity. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Hippocampal volume changes in healthy subjects at risk of unipolar depression

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Baaré, William F C; Vinberg, Maj; Knudsen, Gitte M

2010-01-01

Unipolar depression is moderately heritable. It is unclear whether structural brain changes associated with unipolar depression are present in healthy persons at risk of the disorder. Here we investigated whether a genetic predisposition to unipolar depression is associated with structural brain...... changes. A priori, hippocampal volume reductions were hypothesized. Using a high-risk study design, magnetic resonance imaging brain scans were obtained from 59 healthy high-risk subjects having a co-twin with unipolar depression, and 53 healthy low-risk subjects without a first-degree family history...

Leukocyte telomere length and hippocampus volume: a meta-analysis [version 1; referees: 2 approved

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gustav Nilsonne

2015-10-01

Full Text Available Leukocyte telomere length has been shown to correlate to hippocampus volume, but effect estimates differ in magnitude and are not uniformly positive. This study aimed primarily to investigate the relationship between leukocyte telomere length and hippocampus gray matter volume by meta-analysis and secondarily to investigate possible effect moderators. Five studies were included with a total of 2107 participants, of which 1960 were contributed by one single influential study. A random-effects meta-analysis estimated the effect to r = 0.12 [95% CI -0.13, 0.37] in the presence of heterogeneity and a subjectively estimated moderate to high risk of bias. There was no evidence that apolipoprotein E (APOE genotype was an effect moderator, nor that the ratio of leukocyte telomerase activity to telomere length was a better predictor than leukocyte telomere length for hippocampus volume. This meta-analysis, while not proving a positive relationship, also is not able to disprove the earlier finding of a positive correlation in the one large study included in analyses. We propose that a relationship between leukocyte telomere length and hippocamus volume may be mediated by transmigrating monocytes which differentiate into microglia in the brain parenchyma.

SLSF loop handling system. Volume I. Structural analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ahmed, H.; Cowie, A.; Ma, D.

1978-10-01

SLSF loop handling system was analyzed for deadweight and postulated dynamic loading conditions, identified in Chapters II and III in Volume I of this report, using a linear elastic static equivalent method of stress analysis. Stress analysis of the loop handling machine is presented in Volume I of this report. Chapter VII in Volume I of this report is a contribution by EG and G Co., who performed the work under ANL supervision

Dose-volume analysis of hypothyroidism in patients irradiated to the neck

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Te, Vuong; Liu, Mitchell C.C.; Parker, William; Curtin-Savard, Arthur J.; Clark, Brenda

1997-01-01

Purpose: To determine if the incidence of hypothyroidism in patients who have received radiation therapy to the neck region has any relationship with the total dose to the thyroid and volume of thyroid irradiation. Methods and Materials: From 1988 to 1996, TSH levels were measured at regular intervals of every 3 to 6 months in 528 patients with head and neck cancers or lymphomas (Hodgkin and non-Hodgkin) who had received radiation therapy to the neck region. Hypothyroidism was defined by TSH of ≥ 5 (normal range: 0.5 - 4mU/L). Medical charts, radiotherapy charts, treatment planning films, dosimetry and CT scans/MRI were reviewed. Thyroid volume was determined utilizing treatment planning films and CT scans/MRI. Four hundred and six patients had normal TSH prior to radiation and sufficient information to be eligible for analysis. There were 264 (65%) male and 142 (35%) female, median age was 59 yr (range: 12 - 85). Median follow-up was 39.5 months (range: 1 - 289 months). Results: Out of the 406 eligible patients, 152 (37%) had developed hypothyroidism. The actuarial incidence of hypothyroidism at 1 yr, 3 yr and 5 yr are 9.1%, 29% and 38.5%, respectively. Analysis of volume effect and dose effect are as follows: When the radiation dose to the thyroid and the volume of thyroid irradiated are analyzed together, the group of patients who received ≥ 60Gy to half of thyroid or received ≥ 30Gy to the whole thyroid has increased risk of developing hypothyroidism as compared to those receiving <60Gy to half the thyroid or <30Gy to the whole thyroid (p=.0001). Conclusions: The actuarial incidence of hypothyroidism at 5 year in patients who had received radiation to the neck is 38.5%. Patients who received ≥ 60Gy to half the thyroid or received ≥ 30Gy to the whole thyroid are at higher risk of developing hyperthyroidism

Quantitative coronary plaque analysis predicts high-risk plaque morphology on coronary computed tomography angiography: results from the ROMICAT II trial.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Ting; Maurovich-Horvat, Pál; Mayrhofer, Thomas; Puchner, Stefan B; Lu, Michael T; Ghemigian, Khristine; Kitslaar, Pieter H; Broersen, Alexander; Pursnani, Amit; Hoffmann, Udo; Ferencik, Maros

2018-02-01

Semi-automated software can provide quantitative assessment of atherosclerotic plaques on coronary CT angiography (CTA). The relationship between established qualitative high-risk plaque features and quantitative plaque measurements has not been studied. We analyzed the association between quantitative plaque measurements and qualitative high-risk plaque features on coronary CTA. We included 260 patients with plaque who underwent coronary CTA in the Rule Out Myocardial Infarction/Ischemia Using Computer Assisted Tomography (ROMICAT) II trial. Quantitative plaque assessment and qualitative plaque characterization were performed on a per coronary segment basis. Quantitative coronary plaque measurements included plaque volume, plaque burden, remodeling index, and diameter stenosis. In qualitative analysis, high-risk plaque was present if positive remodeling, low CT attenuation plaque, napkin-ring sign or spotty calcium were detected. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to assess the association between quantitative and qualitative high-risk plaque assessment. Among 888 segments with coronary plaque, high-risk plaque was present in 391 (44.0%) segments by qualitative analysis. In quantitative analysis, segments with high-risk plaque had higher total plaque volume, low CT attenuation plaque volume, plaque burden and remodeling index. Quantitatively assessed low CT attenuation plaque volume (odds ratio 1.12 per 1 mm 3 , 95% CI 1.04-1.21), positive remodeling (odds ratio 1.25 per 0.1, 95% CI 1.10-1.41) and plaque burden (odds ratio 1.53 per 0.1, 95% CI 1.08-2.16) were associated with high-risk plaque. Quantitative coronary plaque characteristics (low CT attenuation plaque volume, positive remodeling and plaque burden) measured by semi-automated software correlated with qualitative assessment of high-risk plaque features.

Control volume based hydrocephalus research; analysis of human data

Science.gov (United States)

Cohen, Benjamin; Wei, Timothy; Voorhees, Abram; Madsen, Joseph; Anor, Tomer

2010-11-01

Hydrocephalus is a neuropathophysiological disorder primarily diagnosed by increased cerebrospinal fluid volume and pressure within the brain. To date, utilization of clinical measurements have been limited to understanding of the relative amplitude and timing of flow, volume and pressure waveforms; qualitative approaches without a clear framework for meaningful quantitative comparison. Pressure volume models and electric circuit analogs enforce volume conservation principles in terms of pressure. Control volume analysis, through the integral mass and momentum conservation equations, ensures that pressure and volume are accounted for using first principles fluid physics. This approach is able to directly incorporate the diverse measurements obtained by clinicians into a simple, direct and robust mechanics based framework. Clinical data obtained for analysis are discussed along with data processing techniques used to extract terms in the conservation equation. Control volume analysis provides a non-invasive, physics-based approach to extracting pressure information from magnetic resonance velocity data that cannot be measured directly by pressure instrumentation.

Information security risk analysis

CERN Document Server

Peltier, Thomas R

2001-01-01

Effective Risk AnalysisQualitative Risk AnalysisValue AnalysisOther Qualitative MethodsFacilitated Risk Analysis Process (FRAP)Other Uses of Qualitative Risk AnalysisCase StudyAppendix A: QuestionnaireAppendix B: Facilitated Risk Analysis Process FormsAppendix C: Business Impact Analysis FormsAppendix D: Sample of ReportAppendix E: Threat DefinitionsAppendix F: Other Risk Analysis OpinionsIndex

Draft Waste Management Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement for managing treatment, storage, and disposal of radioactive and hazardous waste. Volume 3, Appendix A: Public response to revised NOI, Appendix B: Environmental restoration, Appendix C, Environmental impact analysis methods, Appendix D, Risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-08-01

Volume three contains appendices for the following: Public comments do DOE's proposed revisions to the scope of the waste management programmatic environmental impact statement; Environmental restoration sensitivity analysis; Environmental impacts analysis methods; and Waste management facility human health risk estimates

Draft Waste Management Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement for managing treatment, storage, and disposal of radioactive and hazardous waste. Volume 3, Appendix A: Public response to revised NOI, Appendix B: Environmental restoration, Appendix C, Environmental impact analysis methods, Appendix D, Risk

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1995-08-01

Volume three contains appendices for the following: Public comments do DOE`s proposed revisions to the scope of the waste management programmatic environmental impact statement; Environmental restoration sensitivity analysis; Environmental impacts analysis methods; and Waste management facility human health risk estimates.

Age and prostate volume are risk factors for transient urinary incontinence after transurethral enucleation with bipolar for benign prostatic hyperplasia.

Science.gov (United States)

Hirasawa, Yosuke; Kato, Yuji; Fujita, Kiichiro

2018-01-01

To investigate the predictive factors for transient urinary incontinence after transurethral enucleation with bipolar. We retrospectively analyzed the data of 584 patients who underwent transurethral enucleation with bipolar between December 2011 and September 2016 operated by a single surgeon. Urinary incontinence after transurethral enucleation with bipolar was defined as involuntary leakage of urine that required the use of pads. It was evaluated at 1 week, and 1, 3, 6, 12 and 24 months after transurethral enucleation with bipolar. We defined transient urinary incontinence as urinary incontinence persisting up to 1 month after transurethral enucleation with bipolar. Based on independent risk factors identified by a multivariate stepwise logistic regression analysis, a nomogram to predict transient urinary incontinence was developed. Of the 584 patients, 17.3%, 13.5%, 3.1%, 0.41%, and 0% patients had urinary incontinence at 1 week, 1, 3, 6 and 12 months after transurethral enucleation with bipolar, respectively. The mean (±standard error) age was 69.6 ± 0.26 years, estimated prostate volume was 54.7 ± 0.91 cm 3 , operative time was 58.0 ± 1.1 min and the prostate specimen weight was 30.6 ± 0.69 g. On univariate analysis, age, prostate volume estimated by transrectal ultrasonography, prostate-specific antigen, prostate specimen weight, operative time, prostate specimen weight/prostate volume and prostate specimen weight/operative time were significant predictive factors for transient urinary incontinence after transurethral enucleation with bipolar. On multivariate analysis, age (hazard ratio 1.07, P-value = 0.0034) and prostate volume (hazard ratio 1.03, P-value bipolar. Age and prostate volume estimated by transrectal ultrasonography seem to represent significant independent risk factors for transient urinary incontinence after transurethral enucleation with bipolar. This should be well discussed with the patient before surgery. © 2017 The Japanese

Retroperitoneal Sarcoma Target Volume and Organ at Risk Contour Delineation Agreement Among NRG Sarcoma Radiation Oncologists

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Baldini, Elizabeth H., E-mail: ebaldini@partners.org [Department of Radiation Oncology, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Brigham and Women' s Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Abrams, Ross A. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Rush University Medical Center, Chicago, Illinois (United States); Bosch, Walter [Department of Radiation Oncology, Washington University, St. Louis, Missouri (United States); Roberge, David [Department of Radiation Oncology, Centre Hospitalier de l' Universite de Montreal, Montreal, Quebec (Canada); Haas, Rick L.M. [Department of Radiotherapy, Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Catton, Charles N. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Princess Margaret Cancer Centre, Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Indelicato, Daniel J. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Florida Medical Center, Jacksonville, Florida (United States); Olsen, Jeffrey R. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Washington University, St. Louis, Missouri (United States); Deville, Curtiland [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Chen, Yen-Lin [Department of Radiation Oncology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Finkelstein, Steven E. [Translational Research Consortium, 21st Century Oncology, Scottsdale, Arizona (United States); DeLaney, Thomas F. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Wang, Dian [Department of Radiation Oncology, Rush University Medical Center, Chicago, Illinois (United States)

2015-08-01

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the variability in target volume and organ at risk (OAR) contour delineation for retroperitoneal sarcoma (RPS) among 12 sarcoma radiation oncologists. Methods and Materials: Radiation planning computed tomography (CT) scans for 2 cases of RPS were distributed among 12 sarcoma radiation oncologists with instructions for contouring gross tumor volume (GTV), clinical target volume (CTV), high-risk CTV (HR CTV: area judged to be at high risk of resulting in positive margins after resection), and OARs: bowel bag, small bowel, colon, stomach, and duodenum. Analysis of contour agreement was performed using the simultaneous truth and performance level estimation (STAPLE) algorithm and kappa statistics. Results: Ten radiation oncologists contoured both RPS cases, 1 contoured only RPS1, and 1 contoured only RPS2 such that each case was contoured by 11 radiation oncologists. The first case (RPS 1) was a patient with a de-differentiated (DD) liposarcoma (LPS) with a predominant well-differentiated (WD) component, and the second case (RPS 2) was a patient with DD LPS made up almost entirely of a DD component. Contouring agreement for GTV and CTV contours was high. However, the agreement for HR CTVs was only moderate. For OARs, agreement for stomach, bowel bag, small bowel, and colon was high, but agreement for duodenum (distorted by tumor in one of these cases) was fair to moderate. Conclusions: For preoperative treatment of RPS, sarcoma radiation oncologists contoured GTV, CTV, and most OARs with a high level of agreement. HR CTV contours were more variable. Further clarification of this volume with the help of sarcoma surgical oncologists is necessary to reach consensus. More attention to delineation of the duodenum is also needed.

Retroperitoneal Sarcoma Target Volume and Organ at Risk Contour Delineation Agreement Among NRG Sarcoma Radiation Oncologists

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baldini, Elizabeth H.; Abrams, Ross A.; Bosch, Walter; Roberge, David; Haas, Rick L.M.; Catton, Charles N.; Indelicato, Daniel J.; Olsen, Jeffrey R.; Deville, Curtiland; Chen, Yen-Lin; Finkelstein, Steven E.; DeLaney, Thomas F.; Wang, Dian

2015-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the variability in target volume and organ at risk (OAR) contour delineation for retroperitoneal sarcoma (RPS) among 12 sarcoma radiation oncologists. Methods and Materials: Radiation planning computed tomography (CT) scans for 2 cases of RPS were distributed among 12 sarcoma radiation oncologists with instructions for contouring gross tumor volume (GTV), clinical target volume (CTV), high-risk CTV (HR CTV: area judged to be at high risk of resulting in positive margins after resection), and OARs: bowel bag, small bowel, colon, stomach, and duodenum. Analysis of contour agreement was performed using the simultaneous truth and performance level estimation (STAPLE) algorithm and kappa statistics. Results: Ten radiation oncologists contoured both RPS cases, 1 contoured only RPS1, and 1 contoured only RPS2 such that each case was contoured by 11 radiation oncologists. The first case (RPS 1) was a patient with a de-differentiated (DD) liposarcoma (LPS) with a predominant well-differentiated (WD) component, and the second case (RPS 2) was a patient with DD LPS made up almost entirely of a DD component. Contouring agreement for GTV and CTV contours was high. However, the agreement for HR CTVs was only moderate. For OARs, agreement for stomach, bowel bag, small bowel, and colon was high, but agreement for duodenum (distorted by tumor in one of these cases) was fair to moderate. Conclusions: For preoperative treatment of RPS, sarcoma radiation oncologists contoured GTV, CTV, and most OARs with a high level of agreement. HR CTV contours were more variable. Further clarification of this volume with the help of sarcoma surgical oncologists is necessary to reach consensus. More attention to delineation of the duodenum is also needed

A bayesian nework based risk model for volume loss in soft soils in mechanized bored tunnels

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Chivatá Cárdenas, Ibsen; Al-Jibouri, Saad H.S.; Halman, Johannes I.M.

2012-01-01

Volume loss is one of the most important risks when boring a tunnel. This is particularly true when a tunnel is being constructed in soft soils. The risk of excessive volume loss, if materialised can lead to large consequences such as damage in buildings on the surface. This paper describes the

Dedicated Perioperative Hip Fracture Comanagement Programs are Cost-effective in High-volume Centers: An Economic Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Swart, Eric; Vasudeva, Eshan; Makhni, Eric C; Macaulay, William; Bozic, Kevin J

2016-01-01

Osteoporotic hip fractures are common injuries typically occurring in patients who are older and medically frail. Studies have suggested that creation of a multidisciplinary team including orthopaedic surgeons, internal medicine physicians, social workers, and specialized physical therapists, to comanage these patients can decrease complication rates, improve time to surgery, and reduce hospital length of stay; however, they have yet to achieve widespread implementation, partly owing to concerns regarding resource requirements necessary for a comanagement program. We performed an economic analysis to determine whether implementation of a comanagement model of care for geriatric patients with osteoporotic hip fractures would be a cost-effective intervention at hospitals with moderate volume. We also calculated what annual volume of cases would be needed for a comanagement program to "break even", and finally we evaluated whether universal or risk-stratified comanagement was more cost effective. Decision analysis techniques were used to model the effect of implementing a systems-based strategy to improve inpatient perioperative care. Costs were obtained from best-available literature and included salary to support personnel and resources to expedite time to the operating room. The major economic benefit was decreased initial hospital length of stay, which was determined via literature review and meta-analysis, and a health benefit was improvement in perioperative mortality owing to expedited preoperative evaluation based on previously conducted meta-analyses. A break-even analysis was conducted to determine the annual case volume necessary for comanagement to be either (1) cost effective (improve health-related quality of life enough to be worth additional expenses) or (2) result in cost savings (actually result in decreased total expenses). This calculation assumed the scenario in which a hospital could hire only one hospitalist (and therapist and social worker) on

Volume of high-risk intratumoral subregions at multi-parametric MR imaging predicts overall survival and complements molecular analysis of glioblastoma

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cui, Yi; Li, Ruijiang [Stanford University, Department of Radiation Oncology, Palo Alto, CA (United States); Hokkaido University, Global Station for Quantum Medical Science and Engineering, Global Institution for Collaborative Research and Education, Hokkaido (Japan); Ren, Shangjie [Tianjin University, School of Electrical Engineering and Automation, Tianjin Shi (China); Tha, Khin Khin; Shirato, Hiroki [Hokkaido University, Global Station for Quantum Medical Science and Engineering, Global Institution for Collaborative Research and Education, Hokkaido (Japan); Hokkaido University, Department of Radiology and Nuclear Medicine, Hokkaido (Japan); Wu, Jia [Stanford University, Department of Radiation Oncology, Palo Alto, CA (United States)

2017-09-15

To develop and validate a volume-based, quantitative imaging marker by integrating multi-parametric MR images for predicting glioblastoma survival, and to investigate its relationship and synergy with molecular characteristics. We retrospectively analysed 108 patients with primary glioblastoma. The discovery cohort consisted of 62 patients from the cancer genome atlas (TCGA). Another 46 patients comprising 30 from TCGA and 16 internally were used for independent validation. Based on integrated analyses of T1-weighted contrast-enhanced (T1-c) and diffusion-weighted MR images, we identified an intratumoral subregion with both high T1-c and low ADC, and accordingly defined a high-risk volume (HRV). We evaluated its prognostic value and biological significance with genomic data. On both discovery and validation cohorts, HRV predicted overall survival (OS) (concordance index: 0.642 and 0.653, P < 0.001 and P = 0.038, respectively). HRV stratified patients within the proneural molecular subtype (log-rank P = 0.040, hazard ratio = 2.787). We observed different OS among patients depending on their MGMT methylation status and HRV (log-rank P = 0.011). Patients with unmethylated MGMT and high HRV had significantly shorter survival (median survival: 9.3 vs. 18.4 months, log-rank P = 0.002). Volume of the high-risk intratumoral subregion identified on multi-parametric MRI predicts glioblastoma survival, and may provide complementary value to genomic information. (orig.)

Intensity-Modulated Radiotherapy for Craniospinal Irradiation: Target Volume Considerations, Dose Constraints, and Competing Risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parker, William; Filion, Edith; Roberge, David; Freeman, Carolyn R.

2007-01-01

Purpose: To report the results of an analysis of dose received to tissues and organs outside the target volume, in the setting of spinal axis irradiation for the treatment of medulloblastoma, using three treatment techniques. Methods and Materials: Treatment plans (total dose, 23.4 Gy) for a standard two-dimensional (2D) technique, a three-dimensional (3D) technique using a 3D imaging-based target volume, and an intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) technique, were compared for 3 patients in terms of dose-volume statistics for target coverage, as well as organ at risk (OAR) and overall tissue sparing. Results: Planning target volume coverage and dose homogeneity was superior for the IMRT plans for V 95% (IMRT, 100%; 3D, 96%; 2D, 98%) and V 107% (IMRT, 3%; 3D, 38%; 2D, 37%). In terms of OAR sparing, the IMRT plan was better for all organs and whole-body contour when comparing V 10Gy , V 15Gy , and V 20Gy . The 3D plan was superior for V 5Gy and below. For the heart and liver in particular, the IMRT plans provided considerable sparing in terms of V 10Gy and above. In terms of the integral dose, the IMRT plans were superior for liver (IMRT, 21.9 J; 3D, 28.6 J; 2D, 38.6 J) and heart (IMRT, 9 J; 3D, 14.1J; 2D, 19.4 J), the 3D plan for the body contour (IMRT, 349 J; 3D, 337 J; 2D, 555 J). Conclusions: Intensity-modulated radiotherapy is a valid treatment option for spinal axis irradiation. We have shown that IMRT results in sparing of organs at risk without a significant increase in integral dose

Just-in-Time Training for High-Risk Low-Volume Therapies: An Approach to Ensure Patient Safety.

Science.gov (United States)

Helman, Stephanie; Lisanti, Amy Jo; Adams, Ann; Field, Cynthia; Davis, Katherine Finn

2016-01-01

High-risk low-volume therapies are those therapies that are practiced infrequently and yet carry an increased risk to patients because of their complexity. Staff nurses are required to competently manage these therapies to treat patients' unique needs and optimize outcomes; however, maintaining competence is challenging. This article describes implementation of Just-in-Time Training, which requires validation of minimum competency of bedside nurses managing high-risk low-volume therapies through direct observation of a return-demonstration competency checklist.

ZNF804A risk allele is associated with relatively intact gray matter volume in patients with schizophrenia.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Donohoe, Gary

2011-02-01

ZNF804A rs1344706 is the first genetic risk variant to achieve genome wide significance for psychosis. Following earlier evidence that patients carrying the ZNF804A risk allele had relatively spared memory function compared to patient non-carriers, we investigated whether ZNF804A was also associated with variation in brain volume. In a sample of 70 patients and 38 healthy participants we used voxel based morphometry to compare homozygous (AA) carriers of the ZNF804A risk allele to heterozygous and homozygous (AC\\/CC) non-carriers for both whole brain volume and specific regions implicated in earlier ZNF804A studies-the dorsolateral pre-frontal cortex, the hippocampus, and the amygdala. For patients, but not for controls, we found that homozygous \\'AA\\' risk carriers had relatively larger gray matter volumes than heterozygous\\/homozygous non-carriers (AC\\/CC), particularly for hippocampal volumes. These data are consistent with our earlier behavioral data and suggest that ZNF804A is delineating a schizophrenia subtype characterized by relatively intact brain volume. Establishing if this represents a discrete molecular pathogenesis with consequences for nosology and treatment will be an important next step in understanding ZNF084A\\'s role in illness risk.

Risk analysis; Analisis de riesgos

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Baron, J H; Nunez McLeod, J; Rivera, S S [Universidad Nacional de Cuyo, Mendoza (Argentina). Instituto de Capacitacion Especial y Desarrollo de Ingenieria Asistida por Computadora (CEDIAC)

1997-07-01

This book contains a selection of research works performed in the CEDIAC Institute (Cuyo National University) in the area of Risk Analysis, with specific orientations to the subjects of uncertainty and sensitivity studies, software reliability, severe accident modeling, etc. This volume presents important material for all those researches who want to have an insight in the risk analysis field, as a tool to solution several problems frequently found in the engineering and applied sciences field, as well as for the academic teachers who want to keep up to date, including the new developments and improvements continuously arising in this field. [Spanish] Este libro contiene una seleccion de trabajos de investigacion realizados dentro del Instituto de Capacitacion Especial y Desarrollo de la Ingenieria Asistida por Computadora en el area del analisis de riesgos, con una orientacion hacia el estudio de incertidumbres y sensibilidad, confiabilidad de software, modelacion de accidentes severos, etc. Este volumen recoge un material de indudable importancia e interes para todos aquellos investigadores y profesionales que desean incursionar en este campo del analisis de riesgos como herramienta para la solucion de problemas frecuentemente encontrados en la ingenieria y las ciencias aplicadas, asi como para los academicos que desean mantenerse al dia, conociendo los nuevos desarrollos y tecnicas que constantemente aparecen en su area.

DISC1 and striatal volume: a potential risk phenotype for mental illness

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Mallar eChakravarty

2012-06-01

Full Text Available Disrupted-in-schizophrenia 1 was originally discovered in a large Scottish family with abnormally high rates of severe mental illness, including schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, and depression. An accumulating body of evidence from genetic, postmortem, and animal data supports a role for DISC1 in different forms of mental illness. DISC1 may play an important role in determining structure and function of several brain regions. One brain region of particular importance for several mental disorders is the striatum, and DISC1 mutant mice have demonstrated an increase in dopamine (D2 receptors in this structure. However, association between DISC1 functional polymorphisms and striatal structure have not been examined in humans to our knowledge. We, therefore hypothesized that there would be a relationship between human striatal volume and DISC1 genotype, specifically in the Leu607Phe (rs6675281 and Ser704Cys (rs821618 single nucleotide polymorphisms. We tested our hypothesis by automatically identifying the striatum in fifty-four healthy volunteers recruited for this study. We also performed an exploratory analysis of cortical thickness, cortical surface area, and structure volume. Our results demonstrate that Phe allele carriers have larger striatal volume bilaterally (left striatum: p=0.017; right striatum: p=0.016. From the exploratory analyses we found that Phe carriers also had larger right hemisphere volumes and right occipital lobe surface area (p=0.014 compared to LeuLeu homozygotes (p=0.0074. However, these exploratory findings do not survive a conservative correction for multiple comparisons. Our findings demonstrate that a functional DISC1 variant influences striatal volumes. Taken together with animal data that this gene influences D2 receptor levels in striatum, a key risk pathway for mental illnesses such as schizophrenia and bipolar disorder may be conferred via DISC1’s effects on the striatum .

Genetic Schizophrenia Risk Variants Jointly Modulate Total Brain and White Matter Volume

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Terwisscha van Scheltinga, Afke F; Bakker, Steven C; van Haren, Neeltje E M

2013-01-01

with total brain volume (R(2)=.048, p=1.6×10(-4)) and white matter volume (R(2)=.051, p=8.6×10(-5)) equally in patients and control subjects. The number of (independent) SNPs that substantially influenced both disease risk and white matter (n=2020) was much smaller than the entire set of SNPs that modulated...... modulating schizophrenia and brain volume. METHODS: Odds ratios for genome-wide SNP data were calculated in the sample collected by the Psychiatric Genome-wide Association Study Consortium (8690 schizophrenia patients and 11,831 control subjects, excluding subjects from the present study). These were used...

Sound pressure levels generated at risk volume steps of portable listening devices: types of smartphone and genres of music.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Gibbeum; Han, Woojae

2018-05-01

The present study estimated the sound pressure levels of various music genres at the volume steps that contemporary smartphones deliver, because these levels put the listener at potential risk for hearing loss. Using six different smartphones (Galaxy S6, Galaxy Note 3, iPhone 5S, iPhone 6, LG G2, and LG G3), the sound pressure levels for three genres of K-pop music (dance-pop, hip-hop, and pop-ballad) and a Billboard pop chart of assorted genres were measured through an earbud for the first risk volume that was at the risk sign proposed by the smartphones, as well as consecutive higher volumes using a sound level meter and artificial mastoid. The first risk volume step of the Galaxy S6 and the LG G2, among the six smartphones, had the significantly lowest (84.1 dBA) and highest output levels (92.4 dBA), respectively. As the volume step increased, so did the sound pressure levels. The iPhone 6 was loudest (113.1 dBA) at the maximum volume step. Of the music genres, dance-pop showed the highest output level (91.1 dBA) for all smartphones. Within the frequency range of 20~ 20,000 Hz, the sound pressure level peaked at 2000 Hz for all the smartphones. The results showed that the sound pressure levels of either the first volume step or the maximum volume step were not the same for the different smartphone models and genres of music, which means that the risk volume sign and its output levels should be unified across the devices for their users. In addition, the risk volume steps proposed by the latest smartphone models are high enough to cause noise-induced hearing loss if their users habitually listen to music at those levels.

Low Tidal Volume versus Non-Volume-Limited Strategies for Patients with Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome. A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Walkey, Allan J; Goligher, Ewan C; Del Sorbo, Lorenzo; Hodgson, Carol L; Adhikari, Neill K J; Wunsch, Hannah; Meade, Maureen O; Uleryk, Elizabeth; Hess, Dean; Talmor, Daniel S; Thompson, B Taylor; Brower, Roy G; Fan, Eddy

2017-10-01

Trials investigating use of lower tidal volumes and inspiratory pressures for patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) have shown mixed results. To compare clinical outcomes of mechanical ventilation strategies that limit tidal volumes and inspiratory pressures (LTV) to strategies with tidal volumes of 10 to 15 ml/kg among patients with ARDS. This is a systematic review and meta-analysis of clinical trials investigating LTV mechanical ventilation strategies. We used random effects models to evaluate the effect of LTV on 28-day mortality, organ failure, ventilator-free days, barotrauma, oxygenation, and ventilation. Our primary analysis excluded trials for which the LTV strategy was combined with the additional strategy of higher positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP), but these trials were included in a stratified sensitivity analysis. We performed metaregression of tidal volume gradient achieved between intervention and control groups on mortality effect estimates. We used Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation methodology to determine the quality of evidence. Seven randomized trials involving 1,481 patients met eligibility criteria for this review. Mortality was not significantly lower for patients receiving an LTV strategy (33.6%) as compared with control strategies (40.4%) (relative risk [RR], 0.87; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.70-1.08; heterogeneity statistic I 2  = 46%), nor did an LTV strategy significantly decrease barotrauma or ventilator-free days when compared with a lower PEEP strategy. Quality of evidence for clinical outcomes was downgraded for imprecision. Metaregression showed a significant inverse association between larger tidal volume gradient between LTV and control groups and log odds ratios for mortality (β, -0.1587; P = 0.0022). Sensitivity analysis including trials that protocolized an LTV/high PEEP cointervention showed lower mortality associated with LTV (nine trials and 1

Analysis of increasing trend of mortgage volume in the Czech Republic

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Petra Střelcová

2009-01-01

Full Text Available The aim of this paper is an empirical analysis of mortgage volume in the Czech Republic and factors identification of the increasing trend of the mortgage volume in the period from 2001 to 2007. Firstly, analysis of quarterly time series of mortgage volume and average mortgage rate are performed. Consequently, causality between mortgage volume and average mortgage rate is analysed. The morgage rate is the most important factor for economic subjects decision of residential investment. Afterwards, it is analysed causality between mortgage volume and selected factors via multiple regression analysis. Based on this analysis, influencing factors for multiple regression analysis describing mortgage volume are selected. Our empirical analysis validate the causality between mortgage volume and mortgage rate, unemployment rate and price level of real estates. Part of this paper is also economic eduction of causality and estimation of expect progress of mortgage volume especially in connection with present economic and business recession.

Usage of Geoprocessing Services in Precision Forestry for Wood Volume Calculation and Wind Risk Assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tomáš Mikita

2015-01-01

Full Text Available This paper outlines the idea of a precision forestry tool for optimizing clearcut size and shape within the process of forest recovery and its publishing in the form of a web processing service for forest owners on the Internet. The designed tool titled COWRAS (Clearcut Optimization and Wind Risk Assessment is developed for optimization of clearcuts (their location, shape, size, and orientation with subsequent wind risk assessment. The tool primarily works with airborne LiDAR data previously processed to the form of a digital surface model (DSM and a digital elevation model (DEM. In the first step, the growing stock on the planned clearcut determined by its location and area in feature class is calculated (by the method of individual tree detection. Subsequently tree heights from canopy height model (CHM are extracted and then diameters at breast height (DBH and wood volume using the regressions are calculated. Information about wood volume of each tree in the clearcut is exported and summarized in a table. In the next step, all trees in the clearcut are removed and a new DSM without trees in the clearcut is generated. This canopy model subsequently serves as an input for evaluation of wind risk damage by the MAXTOPEX tool (Mikita et al., 2012. In the final raster, predisposition of uncovered forest stand edges (around the clearcut to wind risk is calculated based on this analysis. The entire tool works in the background of ArcGIS server as a spatial decision support system for foresters.

Volume conduction effects on wavelet cross-bicoherence analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Memon, I.A.; Channa, C.

2013-01-01

Cross-bicoherence analysis is one of the important nonlinear signal processing tools which is used to measure quadratic phase coupling between frequencies of two different time series. It is frequently used in the diagnosis of various cognitive and neurological disorders in EEG (Electroencephalography) analysis. Volume conduction effects of various uncorrelated sources present in the brain can produce biased estimates into the estimated values of cross-bicoherence function. Previous studies have discussed volume conduction effects on coherence function which is used to measure linear relationship between EEG signals in terms of their phase and amplitude. However, volume conduction effect on cross-bicoherence analysis which is quite a different technique has not been investigated up to now to the best of our knowledge. This study is divided into two major parts, the first part deals with the investigation of VCUS (Volume Conduction effects due to Uncorrelated Sources) characteristics on EEG-cross-bicoherence analysis. The simulated EEG data due to uncorrelated sources present in the brain was used in this part of study. The next part of study is based upon investigating the effects of VCUS on the statistical analysis of results of EEG-based cross-bicoherence analysis. The study provides an important clinical application because most of studies based on EEG cross-bicoherence analysis have avoided the issue of VCUS. The cross-bicoherence analysis was performed by detecting the change in MSCB (Magnitude Square Cross-Bicoherence Function) between EEG activities of change detection and no-change detection trials. The real EEG signals were used. (author)

Information architecture. Volume 2, Part 1: Baseline analysis summary

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1996-12-01

The Department of Energy (DOE) Information Architecture, Volume 2, Baseline Analysis, is a collaborative and logical next-step effort in the processes required to produce a Departmentwide information architecture. The baseline analysis serves a diverse audience of program management and technical personnel and provides an organized way to examine the Department`s existing or de facto information architecture. A companion document to Volume 1, The Foundations, it furnishes the rationale for establishing a Departmentwide information architecture. This volume, consisting of the Baseline Analysis Summary (part 1), Baseline Analysis (part 2), and Reference Data (part 3), is of interest to readers who wish to understand how the Department`s current information architecture technologies are employed. The analysis identifies how and where current technologies support business areas, programs, sites, and corporate systems.

Nuclear Dynamics Consequence Analysis (NDCA) for the Disposal of Spent Nuclear Fuel in an Underground Geologic Repository - Volume 3: Appendices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Taylor, L.L.; Wilson, J.R.; Sanchez, L.C.; Aguilar, R.; Trellue, H.R.; Cochrane, K.; Rath, J.S.

1998-01-01

The United States Department of Energy Office of Environmental Management's (DOE/EM's) National Spent Nuclear Fuel Program (NSNFP), through a collaboration between Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) and Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL), is conducting a systematic Nuclear Dynamics Consequence Analysis (NDCA) of the disposal of SNFs in an underground geologic repository sited in unsaturated tuff. This analysis is intended to provide interim guidance to the DOE for the management of the SNF while they prepare for final compliance evaluation. This report presents results from a Nuclear Dynamics Consequence Analysis (NDCA) that examined the potential consequences and risks of criticality during the long-term disposal of spent nuclear fuel owned by DOE-EM. This analysis investigated the potential of post-closure criticality, the consequences of a criticality excursion, and the probability frequency for post-closure criticality. The results of the NDCA are intended to provide the DOE-EM with a technical basis for measuring risk which can be used for screening arguments to eliminate post-closure criticality FEPs (features, events and processes) from consideration in the compliance assessment because of either low probability or low consequences. This report is composed of an executive summary (Volume 1), the methodology and results of the NDCA (Volume 2), and the applicable appendices (Volume 3)

Regional frontal gray matter volume associated with executive function capacity as a risk factor for vehicle crashes in normal aging adults.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hiroyuki Sakai

Full Text Available Although low executive functioning is a risk factor for vehicle crashes among elderly drivers, the neural basis of individual differences in this cognitive ability remains largely unknown. Here we aimed to examine regional frontal gray matter volume associated with executive functioning in normal aging individuals, using voxel-based morphometry (VBM. To this end, 39 community-dwelling elderly volunteers who drove a car on a daily basis participated in structural magnetic resonance imaging, and completed two questionnaires concerning executive functioning and risky driving tendencies in daily living. Consequently, we found that participants with low executive function capacity were prone to risky driving. Furthermore, VBM analysis revealed that lower executive function capacity was associated with smaller gray matter volume in the supplementary motor area (SMA. Thus, the current data suggest that SMA volume is a reliable predictor of individual differences in executive function capacity as a risk factor for vehicle crashes among elderly persons. The implication of our results is that regional frontal gray matter volume might underlie the variation in driving tendencies among elderly drivers. Therefore, detailed driving behavior assessments might be able to detect early neurodegenerative changes in the frontal lobe in normal aging adults.

Comparative risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Niehaus, F.

1988-01-01

In this paper, the risks of various energy systems are discussed considering severe accidents analysis, particularly the probabilistic safety analysis, and probabilistic safety criteria, and the applications of these criteria and analysis. The comparative risk analysis has demonstrated that the largest source of risk in every society is from daily small accidents. Nevertheless, we have to be more concerned about severe accidents. The comparative risk analysis of five different energy systems (coal, oil, gas, LWR and STEC (Solar)) for the public has shown that the main sources of risks are coal and oil. The latest comparative risk study of various energy has been conducted in the USA and has revealed that the number of victims from coal is 42 as many than victims from nuclear. A study for severe accidents from hydro-dams in United States has estimated the probability of dam failures at 1 in 10,000 years and the number of victims between 11,000 and 260,000. The average occupational risk from coal is one fatal accident in 1,000 workers/year. The probabilistic safety analysis is a method that can be used to assess nuclear energy risks, and to analyze the severe accidents, and to model all possible accident sequences and consequences. The 'Fault tree' analysis is used to know the probability of failure of the different systems at each point of accident sequences and to calculate the probability of risks. After calculating the probability of failure, the criteria for judging the numerical results have to be developed, that is the quantitative and qualitative goals. To achieve these goals, several systems have been devised by various countries members of AIEA. The probabilistic safety ana-lysis method has been developed by establishing a computer program permit-ting to know different categories of safety related information. 19 tabs. (author)

Lower vs. higher fluid volumes in sepsis-protocol for a systematic review with meta-analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Meyhoff, T S; Møller, M H; Hjortrup, P B

2017-01-01

sequential analysis of randomised clinical trials comparing different strategies to obtain separation in fluid volumes or balances during resuscitation of adult patients with sepsis. We will systematically search the Cochrane Library, MEDLINE, EMBASE, Science Citation Index, BIOSIS and Epistemonikos...... for relevant literature. We will follow the recommendations by the Cochrane Collaboration and the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) statement. The risk of systematic errors (bias) and random errors will be assessed, and the overall quality of evidence will be evaluated...

Identification of risk factors for post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography pancreatitis in a high volume center.

Science.gov (United States)

Phillip, Veit; Schwab, Miriam; Haf, David; Algül, Hana

2017-01-01

Pancreatitis is the most common complication of endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP). Several patients´ or procedure related risk factors for post-ERCP pancreatitis (PEP) have been suggested. The aim of this study was to validate the risk factors for PEP in a high-volume center. All patients undergoing first time ERCP at a tertiary referral center between December 2010 and October 2013 were retrospectively included. PEP was defined according to the Atlanta Classification. 344 patients were included in the final analysis. The risk to develop PEP was increased in patients with chronic pancreatitis (odds ratio 3.7) and after inadvertent cannulation of the pancreatic duct (odds ratio 2.2), which occurred in 26.5% of the patients. Inadvertent cannulation occurred significantly more frequently in patients with difficult cannulation of the papilla duodeni major (odds ratio 12.7; passociated with an increased risk for difficult cannulation (odds ratio 3.0). Inadvertent cannulation of the pancreatic duct is a procedure related risk factor for PEP. Measurements on preventing inadvertent cannulation of the pancreatic duct should be established and studies on prophylactic measurements should focus particularly on patients with inadvertent cannulation of the pancreatic duct.

Foundations of Risk Analysis

CERN Document Server

Aven, Terje

2012-01-01

Foundations of Risk Analysis presents the issues core to risk analysis - understanding what risk means, expressing risk, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real problems. The author provides the readers with the knowledge and basic thinking they require to successfully manage risk and uncertainty to support decision making. This updated edition reflects recent developments on risk and uncertainty concepts, representations and treatment. New material in Foundations of Risk Analysis includes:An up to date presentation of how to understand, define and

Probabilistic risk analysis and terrorism risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Ezell, Barry Charles; Bennett, Steven P; von Winterfeldt, Detlof; Sokolowski, John; Collins, Andrew J

2010-04-01

Since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and the subsequent establishment of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), considerable efforts have been made to estimate the risks of terrorism and the cost effectiveness of security policies to reduce these risks. DHS, industry, and the academic risk analysis communities have all invested heavily in the development of tools and approaches that can assist decisionmakers in effectively allocating limited resources across the vast array of potential investments that could mitigate risks from terrorism and other threats to the homeland. Decisionmakers demand models, analyses, and decision support that are useful for this task and based on the state of the art. Since terrorism risk analysis is new, no single method is likely to meet this challenge. In this article we explore a number of existing and potential approaches for terrorism risk analysis, focusing particularly on recent discussions regarding the applicability of probabilistic and decision analytic approaches to bioterrorism risks and the Bioterrorism Risk Assessment methodology used by the DHS and criticized by the National Academies and others.

Polygenic Risk Score for Alzheimer's Disease: Implications for Memory Performance and Hippocampal Volumes in Early Life.

Science.gov (United States)

Axelrud, Luiza K; Santoro, Marcos L; Pine, Daniel S; Talarico, Fernanda; Gadelha, Ary; Manfro, Gisele G; Pan, Pedro M; Jackowski, Andrea; Picon, Felipe; Brietzke, Elisa; Grassi-Oliveira, Rodrigo; Bressan, Rodrigo A; Miguel, Eurípedes C; Rohde, Luis A; Hakonarson, Hakon; Pausova, Zdenka; Belangero, Sintia; Paus, Tomas; Salum, Giovanni A

2018-06-01

Alzheimer's disease is a heritable neurodegenerative disorder in which early-life precursors may manifest in cognition and brain structure. The authors evaluate this possibility by examining, in youths, associations among polygenic risk score for Alzheimer's disease, cognitive abilities, and hippocampal volume. Participants were children 6-14 years of age in two Brazilian cities, constituting the discovery (N=364) and replication samples (N=352). As an additional replication, data from a Canadian sample (N=1,029), with distinct tasks, MRI protocol, and genetic risk, were included. Cognitive tests quantified memory and executive function. Reading and writing abilities were assessed by standardized tests. Hippocampal volumes were derived from the Multiple Automatically Generated Templates (MAGeT) multi-atlas segmentation brain algorithm. Genetic risk for Alzheimer's disease was quantified using summary statistics from the International Genomics of Alzheimer's Project. Analyses showed that for the Brazilian discovery sample, each one-unit increase in z-score for Alzheimer's polygenic risk score significantly predicted a 0.185 decrement in z-score for immediate recall and a 0.282 decrement for delayed recall. Findings were similar for the Brazilian replication sample (immediate and delayed recall, β=-0.259 and β=-0.232, both significant). Quantile regressions showed lower hippocampal volumes bilaterally for individuals with high polygenic risk scores. Associations fell short of significance for the Canadian sample. Genetic risk for Alzheimer's disease may affect early-life cognition and hippocampal volumes, as shown in two independent samples. These data support previous evidence that some forms of late-life dementia may represent developmental conditions with roots in childhood. This result may vary depending on a sample's genetic risk and may be specific to some types of memory tasks.

MATHEMATICAL RISK ANALYSIS: VIA NICHOLAS RISK MODEL AND BAYESIAN ANALYSIS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anass BAYAGA

2010-07-01

Full Text Available The objective of this second part of a two-phased study was to explorethe predictive power of quantitative risk analysis (QRA method andprocess within Higher Education Institution (HEI. The method and process investigated the use impact analysis via Nicholas risk model and Bayesian analysis, with a sample of hundred (100 risk analysts in a historically black South African University in the greater Eastern Cape Province.The first findings supported and confirmed previous literature (KingIII report, 2009: Nicholas and Steyn, 2008: Stoney, 2007: COSA, 2004 that there was a direct relationship between risk factor, its likelihood and impact, certiris paribus. The second finding in relation to either controlling the likelihood or the impact of occurrence of risk (Nicholas risk model was that to have a brighter risk reward, it was important to control the likelihood ofoccurrence of risks as compared with its impact so to have a direct effect on entire University. On the Bayesian analysis, thus third finding, the impact of risk should be predicted along three aspects. These aspects included the human impact (decisions made, the property impact (students and infrastructural based and the business impact. Lastly, the study revealed that although in most business cases, where as business cycles considerably vary dependingon the industry and or the institution, this study revealed that, most impacts in HEI (University was within the period of one academic.The recommendation was that application of quantitative risk analysisshould be related to current legislative framework that affects HEI.

Nuclear Dynamics Consequence Analysis (NDCA) for the Disposal of Spent Nuclear Fuel in an Underground Geologic Repository--Volume 1: Executive Summary

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Taylor, L.L.; Wilson, J.R.; Sanchez, L.Z.; Aguilar, R.; Trellue, H.R.; Cochrane, K.; Rath, J.S.

1998-01-01

The US Department of Energy Office of Environmental Management's (DOE/EM's) National Spent Nuclear Fuel Program (NSNFP), through a collaboration between Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) and Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL), is conducting a systematic Nuclear Dynamics Consequence Analysis (NDCA) of the disposal of SNFs in an underground geologic repository sited in unsaturated tuff. This analysis is intended to provide interim guidance to the DOE for the management of the SNF while they prepare for final compliance evaluation. This report presents results from a Nuclear Dynamics Consequence Analysis (NDCA) that examined the potential consequences and risks of criticality during the long-term disposal of spent nuclear fuel owned by DOE-EM. This analysis investigated the potential of post-closure criticality, the consequences of a criticality excursion, and the probability frequency for post-closure criticality. The results of the NDCA are intended to provide the DOE-EM with a technical basis for measuring risk which can be used for screening arguments to eliminate post-closure criticality FEPs (features, events and processes) from consideration in the compliance assessment because of either low probability or low consequences. This report is composed of an executive summary (Volume 1), the methodology and results of the NDCA (Volume 2), and the applicable appendices (Volume 3)

Twenty-fifth water reactor safety information meeting: Proceedings. Volume 2: Human reliability analysis and human performance evaluation; Technical issues related to rulemakings; Risk-informed, performance-based initiatives; High burn-up fuel research

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Monteleone, S.

1998-03-01

This three-volume report contains papers presented at the conference. The papers are printed in the order of their presentation in each session and describe progress and results of programs in nuclear safety research conducted in this country and abroad. Foreign participation in the meeting included papers presented by researchers from France, Japan, Norway, and Russia. The titles of the papers and the names of the authors have been updated and may differ from those that appeared in the final program of the meeting. This volume contains the following: (1) human reliability analysis and human performance evaluation; (2) technical issues related to rulemakings; (3) risk-informed, performance-based initiatives; and (4) high burn-up fuel research

High initial tidal volumes in emergency department patients at risk for acute respiratory distress syndrome.

Science.gov (United States)

Allison, Michael G; Scott, Michael C; Hu, Kami M; Witting, Michael D; Winters, Michael E

2015-04-01

Emergency department (ED) patients are at high risk for the acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Settings only 1 mL/kg above recommended tidal volumes confers harm for these patients. The purpose of this study was to determine whether ED physicians routinely initiate mechanical ventilation with low tidal volumes in patients at risk for ARDS. We retrospectively reviewed the charts of all adult patients who were intubated in an urban, academic ED. The charts were analyzed to identify patients in whom ARDS developed within 48 hours after ED admission. Patients were eligible for inclusion if they had bilateral infiltrates on imaging, had a Pao2/Fio2 ratio less than 300 mm Hg and did not have heart failure contributing to their presentation. The tidal volumes set in the ED were then compared with the recommended tidal volume of 6 mL/kg of predicted body weight. The initial tidal volumes set in the ED were higher than recommended by an average of 80 mL (95% confidence interval, 60-110, P tidal volume ventilation setting. In an academic, tertiary hospital, newly intubated ED patients in whom ARDS developed within 48 hours after intubation were ventilated with tidal volumes that exceeded recommendations by an average of 1.5 mL/kg. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Grey matter volume patterns in thalamic nuclei are associated with familial risk for schizophrenia.

Science.gov (United States)

Pergola, Giulio; Trizio, Silvestro; Di Carlo, Pasquale; Taurisano, Paolo; Mancini, Marina; Amoroso, Nicola; Nettis, Maria Antonietta; Andriola, Ileana; Caforio, Grazia; Popolizio, Teresa; Rampino, Antonio; Di Giorgio, Annabella; Bertolino, Alessandro; Blasi, Giuseppe

2017-02-01

Previous evidence suggests reduced thalamic grey matter volume (GMV) in patients with schizophrenia (SCZ). However, it is not considered an intermediate phenotype for schizophrenia, possibly because previous studies did not assess the contribution of individual thalamic nuclei and employed univariate statistics. Here, we hypothesized that multivariate statistics would reveal an association of GMV in different thalamic nuclei with familial risk for schizophrenia. We also hypothesized that accounting for the heterogeneity of thalamic GMV in healthy controls would improve the detection of subjects at familial risk for the disorder. We acquired MRI scans for 96 clinically stable SCZ, 55 non-affected siblings of patients with schizophrenia (SIB), and 249 HC. The thalamus was parceled into seven regions of interest (ROIs). After a canonical univariate analysis, we used GMV estimates of thalamic ROIs, together with total thalamic GMV and premorbid intelligence, as features in Random Forests to classify HC, SIB, and SCZ. Then, we computed a Misclassification Index for each individual and tested the improvement in SIB detection after excluding a subsample of HC misclassified as patients. Random Forests discriminated SCZ from HC (accuracy=81%) and SIB from HC (accuracy=75%). Left anteromedial thalamic volumes were significantly associated with both multivariate classifications (p<0.05). Excluding HC misclassified as SCZ improved greatly HC vs. SIB classification (Cohen's d=1.39). These findings suggest that multivariate statistics identify a familial background associated with thalamic GMV reduction in SCZ. They also suggest the relevance of inter-individual variability of GMV patterns for the discrimination of individuals at familial risk for the disorder. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Amygdalar, hippocampal, and thalamic volumes in youth at high risk for development of bipolar disorder.

Science.gov (United States)

Karchemskiy, Asya; Garrett, Amy; Howe, Meghan; Adleman, Nancy; Simeonova, Diana I; Alegria, Dylan; Reiss, Allan; Chang, Kiki

2011-12-30

Children of parents with bipolar disorder (BD), especially those with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and symptoms of depression or mania, are at significantly high risk for developing BD. As we have previously shown amygdalar reductions in pediatric BD, the current study examined amygdalar volumes in offspring of parents (BD offspring) who have not yet developed a full manic episode. Youth participating in the study included 22 BD offspring and 22 healthy controls of comparable age, gender, handedness, and IQ. Subjects had no history of a manic episode, but met criteria for ADHD and moderate mood symptoms. MRI was performed on a 3T GE scanner, using a 3D volumetric spoiled gradient echo series. Amygdalae were manually traced using BrainImage Java software on positionally normalized brain stacks. Bipolar offspring had similar amygdalar volumes compared to the control group. Exploratory analyses yielded no differences in hippocampal or thalamic volumes. Bipolar offspring do not show decreased amygdalar volume, possibly because these abnormalities occur after more prolonged illness rather than as a preexisting risk factor. Longitudinal studies are needed to determine whether amygdalar volumes change during and after the development of BD. 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Economic Analysis. Volume V. Course Segments 65-79.

Science.gov (United States)

Sterling Inst., Washington, DC. Educational Technology Center.

The fifth volume of the multimedia, individualized course in economic analysis produced for the United States Naval Academy covers segments 65-79 of the course. Included in the volume are discussions of monopoly markets, monopolistic competition, oligopoly markets, and the theory of factor demand and supply. Other segments of the course, the…

Risk Factors Associated with Crash Severity on Low-Volume Rural Roads in Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Prato, Carlo Giacomo; Rasmussen, Thomas Kjær; Kaplan, Sigal

2014-01-01

Safety on low-volume rural roads is drawing attention due to the high fatality and severe injury rates in comparison with high-volume roads and the increasing awareness of sustainable rural development among policy makers. This study analyzes the risk factors associated with crash severity on low......-volume rural roads, including crash characteristics, driver attributes and behavior, vehicle type, road features, environmental conditions, distance from the nearest hospital, and zone rurality degree. The data consist of a set of crashes occurred on low-volume rural roads in Denmark between 2007 and 2011...... advantage in accommodating the ordered-response nature of severity while relaxing the proportional odds assumption. Model estimates and pseudoelasticities show that aggravated crash injury severity is significantly associated with (1) alcohol and failure to wear seatbelts, (2) involvement of vulnerable road...

Nuclear Dynamics Consequence Analysis (NDCA) for the Disposal of Spent Nuclear Fuel in an Underground Geologic Repository--Volume 2: Methodology and Results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Taylor, L.L.; Wilson, J.R.; Sanchez, L.C.; Aguilar, R.; Trellue, H.R.; Cochrane, K.; Rath, J.S.

1998-01-01

The US Department of Energy Office of Environmental Management's (DOE/EM's) National Spent Nuclear Fuel Program (NSNFP), through a collaboration between Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) and Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL), is conducting a systematic Nuclear Dynamics Consequence Analysis (NDCA) of the disposal of SNFs in an underground geologic repository sited in unsaturated tuff. This analysis is intended to provide interim guidance to the DOE for the management of the SNF while they prepare for final compliance evaluation. This report presents results from a Nuclear Dynamics Consequence Analysis (NDCA) that examined the potential consequences and risks of criticality during the long-term disposal of spent nuclear fuel owned by DOE-EM. This analysis investigated the potential of post-closure criticality, the consequences of a criticality excursion, and the probability frequency for post-closure criticality. The results of the NDCA are intended to provide the DOE-EM with a technical basis for measuring risk which can be used for screening arguments to eliminate post-closure criticality FEPs (features, events and processes) from consideration in the compliance assessment because of either low probability or low consequences. This report is composed of an executive summary (Volume 1), the methodology and results of the NDCA (Volume 2), and the applicable appendices (Volume 3)

Nuclear Dynamics Consequence Analysis (NDCA) for the Disposal of Spent Nuclear Fuel in an Underground Geologic Repository--Volume 2: Methodology and Results

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Taylor, L.L.; Wilson, J.R.; Sanchez, L.C.; Aguilar, R.; Trellue, H.R.; Cochrane, K.; Rath, J.S.

1998-10-01

The US Department of Energy Office of Environmental Management's (DOE/EM's) National Spent Nuclear Fuel Program (NSNFP), through a collaboration between Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) and Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL), is conducting a systematic Nuclear Dynamics Consequence Analysis (NDCA) of the disposal of SNFs in an underground geologic repository sited in unsaturated tuff. This analysis is intended to provide interim guidance to the DOE for the management of the SNF while they prepare for final compliance evaluation. This report presents results from a Nuclear Dynamics Consequence Analysis (NDCA) that examined the potential consequences and risks of criticality during the long-term disposal of spent nuclear fuel owned by DOE-EM. This analysis investigated the potential of post-closure criticality, the consequences of a criticality excursion, and the probability frequency for post-closure criticality. The results of the NDCA are intended to provide the DOE-EM with a technical basis for measuring risk which can be used for screening arguments to eliminate post-closure criticality FEPs (features, events and processes) from consideration in the compliance assessment because of either low probability or low consequences. This report is composed of an executive summary (Volume 1), the methodology and results of the NDCA (Volume 2), and the applicable appendices (Volume 3).

Do insurers respond to risk adjustment? A long-term, nationwide analysis from Switzerland.

Science.gov (United States)

von Wyl, Viktor; Beck, Konstantin

2016-03-01

Community rating in social health insurance calls for risk adjustment in order to eliminate incentives for risk selection. Swiss risk adjustment is known to be insufficient, and substantial risk selection incentives remain. This study develops five indicators to monitor residual risk selection. Three indicators target activities of conglomerates of insurers (with the same ownership), which steer enrollees into specific carriers based on applicants' risk profiles. As a proxy for their market power, those indicators estimate the amount of premium-, health care cost-, and risk-adjustment transfer variability that is attributable to conglomerates. Two additional indicators, derived from linear regression, describe the amount of residual cost differences between insurers that are not covered by risk adjustment. All indicators measuring conglomerate-based risk selection activities showed increases between 1996 and 2009, paralleling the establishment of new conglomerates. At their maxima in 2009, the indicator values imply that 56% of the net risk adjustment volume, 34% of premium variability, and 51% cost variability in the market were attributable to conglomerates. From 2010 onwards, all indicators decreased, coinciding with a pre-announced risk adjustment reform implemented in 2012. Likewise, the regression-based indicators suggest that the volume and variance of residual cost differences between insurers that are not equaled out by risk adjustment have decreased markedly since 2009 as a result of the latest reform. Our analysis demonstrates that risk-selection, especially by conglomerates, is a real phenomenon in Switzerland. However, insurers seem to have reduced risk selection activities to optimize their losses and gains from the latest risk adjustment reform.

Is risk analysis scientific?

Science.gov (United States)

Hansson, Sven Ove; Aven, Terje

2014-07-01

This article discusses to what extent risk analysis is scientific in view of a set of commonly used definitions and criteria. We consider scientific knowledge to be characterized by its subject matter, its success in developing the best available knowledge in its fields of study, and the epistemic norms and values that guide scientific investigations. We proceed to assess the field of risk analysis according to these criteria. For this purpose, we use a model for risk analysis in which science is used as a base for decision making on risks, which covers the five elements evidence, knowledge base, broad risk evaluation, managerial review and judgment, and the decision; and that relates these elements to the domains experts and decisionmakers, and to the domains fact-based or value-based. We conclude that risk analysis is a scientific field of study, when understood as consisting primarily of (i) knowledge about risk-related phenomena, processes, events, etc., and (ii) concepts, theories, frameworks, approaches, principles, methods and models to understand, assess, characterize, communicate, and manage risk, in general and for specific applications (the instrumental part). © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Identification of risk factors for post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography pancreatitis in a high volume center.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Veit Phillip

Full Text Available Pancreatitis is the most common complication of endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP. Several patients´ or procedure related risk factors for post-ERCP pancreatitis (PEP have been suggested. The aim of this study was to validate the risk factors for PEP in a high-volume center.All patients undergoing first time ERCP at a tertiary referral center between December 2010 and October 2013 were retrospectively included. PEP was defined according to the Atlanta Classification.344 patients were included in the final analysis. The risk to develop PEP was increased in patients with chronic pancreatitis (odds ratio 3.7 and after inadvertent cannulation of the pancreatic duct (odds ratio 2.2, which occurred in 26.5% of the patients. Inadvertent cannulation occurred significantly more frequently in patients with difficult cannulation of the papilla duodeni major (odds ratio 12.7; p<0.001. ERCP on call was associated with an increased risk for difficult cannulation (odds ratio 3.0.Inadvertent cannulation of the pancreatic duct is a procedure related risk factor for PEP. Measurements on preventing inadvertent cannulation of the pancreatic duct should be established and studies on prophylactic measurements should focus particularly on patients with inadvertent cannulation of the pancreatic duct.

Analysis of some nuclear waste management options. Volume II. Appendices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Berman, L.E.; Ensminger, D.A.; Giuffre, M.S.; Koplik, C.M.; Oston, S.G.; Pollak, G.D.; Ross, B.I.

1978-01-01

This report describes risk analyses performed on that portion of a nuclear fuel cycle which begins following solidification of high-level waste. Risks associated with handling, interim storage and transportation of the waste are assessed, as well as the long term implications of disposal in deep mined cavities. The risk is expressed in terms of expected dose to the general population and peak dose to individuals in the population. This volume consists of appendices which provide technical details of the work performed

Analysis of some nuclear waste management options. Volume II. Appendices

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Berman, L.E.; Ensminger, D.A.; Giuffre, M.S.; Koplik, C.M.; Oston, S.G.; Pollak, G.D.; Ross, B.I.

1978-10-10

This report describes risk analyses performed on that portion of a nuclear fuel cycle which begins following solidification of high-level waste. Risks associated with handling, interim storage and transportation of the waste are assessed, as well as the long term implications of disposal in deep mined cavities. The risk is expressed in terms of expected dose to the general population and peak dose to individuals in the population. This volume consists of appendices which provide technical details of the work performed.

Decomposition analysis of differential dose volume histograms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heuvel, Frank van den

2006-01-01

Dose volume histograms are a common tool to assess the value of a treatment plan for various forms of radiation therapy treatment. The purpose of this work is to introduce, validate, and apply a set of tools to analyze differential dose volume histograms by decomposing them into physically and clinically meaningful normal distributions. A weighted sum of the decomposed normal distributions (e.g., weighted dose) is proposed as a new measure of target dose, rather than the more unstable point dose. The method and its theory are presented and validated using simulated distributions. Additional validation is performed by analyzing simple four field box techniques encompassing a predefined target, using different treatment energies inside a water phantom. Furthermore, two clinical situations are analyzed using this methodology to illustrate practical usefulness. A comparison of a treatment plan for a breast patient using a tangential field setup with wedges is compared to a comparable geometry using dose compensators. Finally, a normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) calculation is refined using this decomposition. The NTCP calculation is performed on a liver as organ at risk in a treatment of a mesothelioma patient with involvement of the right lung. The comparison of the wedged breast treatment versus the compensator technique yields comparable classical dose parameters (e.g., conformity index ≅1 and equal dose at the ICRU dose point). The methodology proposed here shows a 4% difference in weighted dose outlining the difference in treatment using a single parameter instead of at least two in a classical analysis (e.g., mean dose, and maximal dose, or total dose variance). NTCP-calculations for the mesothelioma case are generated automatically and show a 3% decrease with respect to the classical calculation. The decrease is slightly dependant on the fractionation and on the α/β-value utilized. In conclusion, this method is able to distinguish clinically

Environmental modeling and health risk analysis (ACTS/RISK)

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Aral, M. M

2010-01-01

... presents a review of the topics of exposure and health risk analysis. The Analytical Contaminant Transport Analysis System (ACTS) and Health RISK Analysis (RISK) software tools are an integral part of the book and provide computational platforms for all the models discussed herein. The most recent versions of these two softwa...

Chest Wall Volume Receiving >30 Gy Predicts Risk of Severe Pain and/or Rib Fracture After Lung Stereotactic Body Radiotherapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dunlap, Neal E.; Cai, Jing; Biedermann, Gregory B.; Yang, Wensha; Benedict, Stanley H.; Sheng Ke; Schefter, Tracey E.; Kavanagh, Brian D.; Larner, James M.

2010-01-01

Purpose: To identify the dose-volume parameters that predict the risk of chest wall (CW) pain and/or rib fracture after lung stereotactic body radiotherapy. Methods and Materials: From a combined, larger multi-institution experience, 60 consecutive patients treated with three to five fractions of stereotactic body radiotherapy for primary or metastatic peripheral lung lesions were reviewed. CW pain was assessed using the Common Toxicity Criteria for pain. Peripheral lung lesions were defined as those located within 2.5 cm of the CW. A minimal point dose of 20 Gy to the CW was required. The CW volume receiving ≥20, ≥30, ≥40, ≥50, and ≥60 Gy was determined and related to the risk of CW toxicity. Results: Of the 60 patients, 17 experienced Grade 3 CW pain and five rib fractures. The median interval to the onset of severe pain and/or fracture was 7.1 months. The risk of CW toxicity was fitted to the median effective concentration dose-response model. The CW volume receiving 30 Gy best predicted the risk of severe CW pain and/or rib fracture (R 2 = 0.9552). A volume threshold of 30 cm 3 was observed before severe pain and/or rib fracture was reported. A 30% risk of developing severe CW toxicity correlated with a CW volume of 35 cm 3 receiving 30 Gy. Conclusion: The development of CW toxicity is clinically relevant, and the CW should be considered an organ at risk in treatment planning. The CW volume receiving 30 Gy in three to five fractions should be limited to 3 , if possible, to reduce the risk of toxicity without compromising tumor coverage.

ProRisk : risk analysis instrument : developed for William properties

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Doorn, W.H.W.; Egeberg, Ingrid; Hendrickx, Kristoff; Kahramaner, Y.; Masseur, B.; Waijers, Koen; Weglicka, K.A.

2005-01-01

This report presents a Risk Analysis Instrument developed for William Properties. Based on the analysis, it appears that the practice of Risk Analysis exists within the organization, yet rather implicit. The Risk Analysis Instrument comes with a package of four components: an activity diagram, a

Interaction between peri-operative blood transfusion, tidal volume, airway pressure and postoperative ARDS: an individual patient data meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Serpa Neto, Ary; Juffermans, Nicole P; Hemmes, Sabrine N T; Barbas, Carmen S V; Beiderlinden, Martin; Biehl, Michelle; Fernandez-Bustamante, Ana; Futier, Emmanuel; Gajic, Ognjen; Jaber, Samir; Kozian, Alf; Licker, Marc; Lin, Wen-Qian; Memtsoudis, Stavros G; Miranda, Dinis Reis; Moine, Pierre; Paparella, Domenico; Ranieri, Marco; Scavonetto, Federica; Schilling, Thomas; Selmo, Gabriele; Severgnini, Paolo; Sprung, Juraj; Sundar, Sugantha; Talmor, Daniel; Treschan, Tanja; Unzueta, Carmen; Weingarten, Toby N; Wolthuis, Esther K; Wrigge, Hermann; de Abreu, Marcelo Gama; Pelosi, Paolo; Schultz, Marcus J

2018-01-01

Transfusion of blood products and mechanical ventilation with injurious settings are considered risk factors for postoperative lung injury in surgical Patients. A systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis was done to determine the independent effects of peri-operative transfusion of blood products, intra-operative tidal volume and airway pressure in adult patients undergoing mechanical ventilation for general surgery, as well as their interactions on the occurrence of postoperative acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Observational studies and randomized trials were identified by a systematic search of MEDLINE, CINAHL, Web of Science, and CENTRAL and screened for inclusion into a meta-analysis. Individual patient data were obtained from the corresponding authors. Patients were stratified according to whether they received transfusion in the peri-operative period [red blood cell concentrates (RBC) and/or fresh frozen plasma (FFP)], tidal volume size [≤7 mL/kg predicted body weight (PBW), 7-10 and >10 mL/kg PBW] and airway pressure level used during surgery (≤15, 15-20 and >20 cmH 2 O). The primary outcome was development of postoperative ARDS. Seventeen investigations were included (3,659 patients). Postoperative ARDS occurred in 40 (7.2%) patients who received at least one blood product compared to 40 patients (2.5%) who did not [adjusted hazard ratio (HR), 2.32; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.25-4.33; P=0.008]. Incidence of postoperative ARDS was highest in patients ventilated with tidal volumes of >10 mL/kg PBW and having airway pressures of >20 cmH 2 O receiving both RBC and FFP, and lowest in patients ventilated with tidal volume of ≤7 mL/kg PBW and having airway pressures of ≤15 cmH 2 O with no transfusion. There was a significant interaction between transfusion and airway pressure level (P=0.002) on the risk of postoperative ARDS. Peri-operative transfusion of blood products is associated with an increased risk of

Sudbury soils study : summary of volume 3 : ecological risk assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2009-03-15

The Sudbury soils study was comprised of 3 volumes: (1) a background, study organization and 2001 soils survey; (2) a human health risk assessment; and (3) an ecological risk assessment (ERA). This document provided details of the ERA, which was conducted to characterize the current and future risks of chemicals of concern (COC) to terrestrial and ecosystem components from Sudbury smelter particulate emissions. The extent to which COC are preventing the recovery of regionally representative terrestrial plant communities was investigated. Risks to terrestrial wildlife populations and endangered species and communities were evaluated. Samples of soil, water, sediment, plants, terrestrial invertebrates, and fish tissue were collected. Data were then analyzed by scientists and independent consultants in order to assess the impacts of arsenic, cadmium, cobalt, copper, lead, nickel and selenium. Results of the study indicated that terrestrial plant communities in the region continue to be impacted by COC in the soil, as well as by soil erosion, low nutrient levels, and a lack of soil organic matter. Direct impacts on wildlife populations were also observed. 5 refs., 7 tabs., 21 figs.

Observations on risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thompson, W.A. Jr.

1979-11-01

This paper briefly describes WASH 1400 and the Lewis report. It attempts to define basic concepts such as risk and risk analysis, common mode failure, and rare event. Several probabilistic models which go beyond the WASH 1400 methodology are introduced; the common characteristic of these models is that they recognize explicitly that risk analysis is time dependent whereas WASH 1400 takes a per demand failure rate approach which obscures the important fact that accidents are time related. Further, the presentation of a realistic risk analysis should recognize that there are various risks which compete with one another for the lives of the individuals at risk. A way of doing this is suggested

Control-Volume Analysis Of Thrust-Augmenting Ejectors

Science.gov (United States)

Drummond, Colin K.

1990-01-01

New method of analysis of transient flow in thrust-augmenting ejector based on control-volume formulation of governing equations. Considered as potential elements of propulsion subsystems of short-takeoff/vertical-landing airplanes.

State of the art in benefit-risk analysis: introduction.

Science.gov (United States)

Verhagen, H; Tijhuis, M J; Gunnlaugsdóttir, H; Kalogeras, N; Leino, O; Luteijn, J M; Magnússon, S H; Odekerken, G; Pohjola, M V; Tuomisto, J T; Ueland, Ø; White, B C; Holm, F

2012-01-01

Risk-taking is normal in everyday life if there are associated (perceived) benefits. Benefit-Risk Analysis (BRA) compares the risk of a situation to its related benefits and addresses the acceptability of the risk. Over the past years BRA in relation to food and food ingredients has gained attention. Food, and even the same food ingredient, may confer both beneficial and adverse effects. Measures directed at food safety may lead to suboptimal or insufficient levels of ingredients from a benefit perspective. In BRA, benefits and risks of food (ingredients) are assessed in one go and may conditionally be expressed into one currency. This allows the comparison of adverse and beneficial effects to be qualitative and quantitative. A BRA should help policy-makers to make more informed and balanced benefit-risk management decisions. Not allowing food benefits to occur in order to guarantee food safety is a risk management decision much the same as accepting some risk in order to achieve more benefits. BRA in food and nutrition is making progress, but difficulties remain. The field may benefit from looking across its borders to learn from other research areas. The BEPRARIBEAN project (Best Practices for Risk-Benefit Analysis: experience from out of food into food; http://en.opasnet.org/w/Bepraribean) aims to do so, by working together with Medicines, Food Microbiology, Environmental Health, Economics & Marketing-Finance and Consumer Perception. All perspectives are reviewed and subsequently integrated to identify opportunities for further development of BRA for food and food ingredients. Interesting issues that emerge are the varying degrees of risk that are deemed acceptable within the areas and the trend towards more open and participatory BRA processes. A set of 6 'state of the art' papers covering the above areas and a paper integrating the separate (re)views are published in this volume. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

High baseline left ventricular and systolic volume may identify patients at risk of chemotherapy-induced cardiotoxicity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Atiar Rahman; Alex Gedevanishvili; Seham Ali; Elma G Briscoe; Vani Vijaykumar

2004-01-01

Introduction and Methods: Use of chemotherapeutic drugs in the treatment of cancer may lead to serious cardiotoxicity and to post-treatment heart failure. Various strategies have been developed to minimize the risk of cardiotoxicity including avoiding the total dosage given to each patient above a certain 'threshold' value; and monitoring the patient's cardiac function by means of the 'Multiple Gated Acquisition' (MUGA) scan using Technetium 99m . However, even with all these precautions some patients still develop cardiotoxicity and it is not well known which factors predict deterioration of cardiac functions in patients with optimized chemotherapeutic dosages. In this retrospective study we sought to evaluate the predictive value of seven variables (age, sex, baseline LV ejection fraction, LV end diastolic [LDEDV] and end systolic volumes [LVESV], peak diastolic filling rate, preexisting malignancies requiring chemotherapy) in 172 patients (n=Breast Carcinoma 86, lymphoma 62, Leukemias and others 24) undergoing chemotherapy from 1995 until 2000. There was no cut off for left ventricular ejection fraction prior to chemotherapy. However, patients were excluded from analysis if they had significant cardiac arrhythmias or received doses higher than considered safe for cardiotoxicity at the beginning of the study. Significant cardiotoxicity was defined as a drop in post chemotherapy LVEF by >15%. Results: Logistic regression models were used to predict the probability of developing cardiotoxicity as a function of the seven prognostic covariates. The mean age of all patients was 51+13 years. Significant Cardiac toxicity was noted in 10 percent of patients. The overall risk estimate for subsequent heart failure after chemotherapy, however, climbed to 18 percent in patients with a presenting LVESD >50 mL. Using multivariate logistic regression model, older age was noted to be a weak risk factors for cardiac toxicity (confidence interval 0.8-1.2; p 50 mL) appeared to

Twenty-fifth water reactor safety information meeting: Proceedings. Volume 2: Human reliability analysis and human performance evaluation; Technical issues related to rulemakings; Risk-informed, performance-based initiatives; High burn-up fuel research

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Monteleone, S. [comp.] [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States)

1998-03-01

This three-volume report contains papers presented at the conference. The papers are printed in the order of their presentation in each session and describe progress and results of programs in nuclear safety research conducted in this country and abroad. Foreign participation in the meeting included papers presented by researchers from France, Japan, Norway, and Russia. The titles of the papers and the names of the authors have been updated and may differ from those that appeared in the final program of the meeting. This volume contains the following: (1) human reliability analysis and human performance evaluation; (2) technical issues related to rulemakings; (3) risk-informed, performance-based initiatives; and (4) high burn-up fuel research. Selected papers have been indexed separately for inclusion in the Energy Science and Technology Database.

Risk for affective disorders is associated with greater prefrontal gray matter volumes: A prospective longitudinal study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Macoveanu, Julian; Baaré, William; Madsen, Kristoffer Hougaard

2017-01-01

transmission. Methods: We used voxel based morphometry to investigate changes in regional GM brain volume, over a seven-year period, in 37 initially healthy individuals having a mono- or di-zygotic twin diagnosed with major depression or bipolar disorder (high-risk group; mean age 41.6 yrs.) as compared to 36...... anterior cingulate, inferior frontal gyrus and temporoparietal regions as compared to low-risk twins. Further, individuals who developed an affective disorder at follow-up (n=12), had relatively the largest GM volumes, both at baseline and follow-up, in the right dorsal anterior cingulate cortex and right...

University of all knowledge. Nature and risks. Volume 6; Universite de tous les savoirs. La nature et les risques. Volume 6

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Michaud, Y.

2002-02-01

This small book belongs to a collection of six volumes which synthesizes the content of a cycle of 366 conferences about sciences, techniques, intellectual productions, cultures etc, given each day of the year 2000 by specialists of the relevant domains. This 6. volume is devoted to todays and tomorrows stakes of nature: bio-diversity; co-evolution; molecular dialogue of symbioses; the vegetal chemical factory; the appropriation of the living matter: from biology to the social debate; the ethical stakes of genetics; todays feeding and risk perception; tomorrows feeding; safety of food products: prevention - surveillance - crisis; nature and agriculture; function and response of plant leaves to aggressions and herbicides; fishes and men (resources management); plants, molecules and drugs; the future of fossil fuels; the future of the environment; water pollution and cleansing; wastes: how the eliminate, re-valorize or avoid them; soils pollution; the ambiguousness of sustainable development policies; liability, risk and precaution. (J.S.)

Liver volume, intrahepatic fat and body weight in the course of a lifestyle interventional study. Analysis with quantitative MR-based methods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bongers, M.N.; Stefan, N.; Fritsche, A.; Haering, H.U.; Nikolaou, K.; Schick, F.; Machann, J.

2015-01-01

The aim of this study was to investigate potential associations between changes in liver volume, the amount of intrahepatic lipids (IHL) and body weight during lifestyle interventions. In a prospective study 150 patients with an increased risk for developing type 2 diabetes mellitus were included who followed a caloric restriction diet for 6 months. In the retrospective analysis 18 women and 9 men (age range 22-71 years) with an average body mass index (BMI) of 32 kg/m 2 were enrolled. The liver volume was determined at the beginning and after 6 months by three-dimensional magnetic resonance imaging (3D-MRI, echo gradient, opposed-phase) and IHLs were quantified by volume-selective MR spectroscopy in single voxel stimulated echo acquisition mode (STEAM). Univariable and multivariable correlation analyses between changes of liver volume (Δliver volume), intrahepatic lipids (ΔIHL) and body weight (ΔBW) were performed. Univariable correlation analysis in the whole study cohort showed associations between ΔIHL and ΔBW (r = 0.69; p < 0.0001), ΔIHL and Δliver volume (r = 0.66; p = 0.0002) as well as ΔBW and Δliver volume (r = 0.5; p = 0.0073). Multivariable correlation analysis revealed that changes of liver volume are primarily determined by changes in IHL independent of changes in body weight (β = 0.0272; 95 % CI: 0.0155-0.034; p < 0.0001). Changes of liver volume during lifestyle interventions are independent of changes of body weight primarily determined by changes of IHL. These results show the reversibility of augmented liver volume in steatosis if it is possible to reduce IHLs during lifestyle interventions. (orig.) [de

Unsharpness-risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Preyssl, C.

1986-01-01

Safety analysis provides the only tool for evaluation and quantification of rare or hypothetical events leading to system failure. So far probability theory has been used for the fault- and event-tree methodology. The phenomenon of uncertainties constitutes an important aspect in risk analysis. Uncertainties can be classified as originating from 'randomness' or 'fuzziness'. Probability theory addresses randomness only. The use of 'fuzzy set theory' makes it possible to include both types of uncertainty in the mathematical model of risk analysis. Thus the 'fuzzy fault tree' is expressed in 'possibilistic' terms implying a range of simplifications and improvements. 'Human failure' and 'conditionality' can be treated correctly. Only minimum-maximum relations are used to combine the possibility distributions of events. Various event-classifications facilitate the interpretation of the results. The method is demonstrated by application to a TRIGA-research reactor. Uncertainty as an implicit part of 'fuzzy risk' can be quantified explicitly using an 'uncertainty measure'. Based on this the 'degree of relative compliance' with a quantizative safety goal can be defined for a particular risk. The introduction of 'weighting functionals' guarantees the consideration of the importances attached to different parts of the risk exceeding or complying with the standard. The comparison of two reference systems is demonstrated in a case study. It is concluded that any application of the 'fuzzy risk analysis' has to be free of any hypostatization when reducing subjective to objective information. (Author)

Diversion path analysis handbook. Volume 2 (of 4 volumes). Example

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goodwin, K.E.; Schleter, J.C.; Maltese, M.D.K.

1978-11-01

Volume 2 of the Handbook is divided into two parts, the workpaper documentation and the summary documentation. The former sets forth, in terms of the hypothetical process, the analysis guidelines, the information gathered, the characterization of the process, the specific diversion paths related to the process, and, finally, the results and findings of the Diversion Path Analysis (DPA). The summary documentation, made up of portions of sections already prepared for the workpapers, is a concise statement of results and recommendations for management use. Most of the details available in the workpapers are not used, or are held to a minimum, in this report. Also, some rearrangement of the excerpted sections has been made in order to permit rapid comprehension by a manager having only limited time to devote to study and review of the analysis

RAMS (Risk Analysis - Modular System) methodology

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Stenner, R.D.; Strenge, D.L.; Buck, J.W. [and others

1996-10-01

The Risk Analysis - Modular System (RAMS) was developed to serve as a broad scope risk analysis tool for the Risk Assessment of the Hanford Mission (RAHM) studies. The RAHM element provides risk analysis support for Hanford Strategic Analysis and Mission Planning activities. The RAHM also provides risk analysis support for the Hanford 10-Year Plan development activities. The RAMS tool draws from a collection of specifically designed databases and modular risk analysis methodologies and models. RAMS is a flexible modular system that can be focused on targeted risk analysis needs. It is specifically designed to address risks associated with overall strategy, technical alternative, and `what if` questions regarding the Hanford cleanup mission. RAMS is set up to address both near-term and long-term risk issues. Consistency is very important for any comparative risk analysis, and RAMS is designed to efficiently and consistently compare risks and produce risk reduction estimates. There is a wide range of output information that can be generated by RAMS. These outputs can be detailed by individual contaminants, waste forms, transport pathways, exposure scenarios, individuals, populations, etc. However, they can also be in rolled-up form to support high-level strategy decisions.

County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 1.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

2017-06-01

This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

Committee to evaluate Sandia`s risk expertise: Final report. Volume 1: Presentations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dudley, E.C.

1998-05-01

On July 1--2, 1997, Sandia National Laboratories hosted the External Committee to Evaluate Sandia`s Risk Expertise. Under the auspices of SIISRS (Sandia`s International Institute for Systematic Risk Studies), Sandia assembled a blue-ribbon panel of experts in the field of risk management to assess their risk programs labs-wide. Panelists were chosen not only for their own expertise, but also for their ability to add balance to the panel as a whole. Presentations were made to the committee on the risk activities at Sandia. In addition, a tour of Sandia`s research and development programs in support of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission was arranged. The panel attended a poster session featuring eight presentations and demonstrations for selected projects. Overviews and viewgraphs from the presentations are included in Volume 1 of this report. Presentations are related to weapons, nuclear power plants, transportation systems, architectural surety, environmental programs, and information systems.

Development and analysis of finite volume methods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Omnes, P.

2010-05-01

This document is a synthesis of a set of works concerning the development and the analysis of finite volume methods used for the numerical approximation of partial differential equations (PDEs) stemming from physics. In the first part, the document deals with co-localized Godunov type schemes for the Maxwell and wave equations, with a study on the loss of precision of this scheme at low Mach number. In the second part, discrete differential operators are built on fairly general, in particular very distorted or nonconforming, bidimensional meshes. These operators are used to approach the solutions of PDEs modelling diffusion, electro and magneto-statics and electromagnetism by the discrete duality finite volume method (DDFV) on staggered meshes. The third part presents the numerical analysis and some a priori as well as a posteriori error estimations for the discretization of the Laplace equation by the DDFV scheme. The last part is devoted to the order of convergence in the L2 norm of the finite volume approximation of the solution of the Laplace equation in one dimension and on meshes with orthogonality properties in two dimensions. Necessary and sufficient conditions, relatively to the mesh geometry and to the regularity of the data, are provided that ensure the second-order convergence of the method. (author)

Volume of hospital is important for the prognosis of high-risk patients with nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (NVUGIB).

Science.gov (United States)

Choi, Jin Woo; Jeon, Seong Woo; Kwon, Jung Gu; Lee, Dong Wook; Ha, Chang Yoon; Cho, Kwang Bum; Jang, Byung Ik; Park, Jung Bae; Park, Youn Sun

2017-08-01

Nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (NVUGIB) is a potentially life-threatening hospital emergency requiring hemodynamic stabilization and resuscitation. This study is carried out to determine whether hospital volume can influence outcome in patients with NVUGIB. This is a retrospective study with a prospective cohort database (KCT 0000514. cris.nih.go.kr). Eight teaching hospitals were divided into two different groups: high-volume centers (HVC, ≥60 NVUGIB patients/year, four clinics) and low-volume centers (LVC, bleeding after treatment, re-bleeding, necessity for surgical/other retreatments, and death within 30 days. Similar baseline characters for patients were observed in both groups. There was a significant difference in the incidence of poor outcome between the HVC and LVC groups (9.06 vs. 13.69%, P = 0.014). The incidence rate of poor outcome in high-risk patients (Rockall score ≥8) in HVC was lower than that in high-risk patients in LVC (16.07 vs. 26.92%, P = 0.048); however, there was no significant difference in poor outcome in the lower-risk patients in either group (8.72 vs. 10.42%, P = 0.370). Significant correlation between hospital volume and outcome in NVUGIB patients was observed. Referral to HVC for the management of high-risk NVUGIB patients should be considered in clinical practice.

Association Between Treatment at a High-Volume Facility and Improved Survival for Radiation-Treated Men With High-Risk Prostate Cancer

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chen, Yu-Wei [Department of Radiation Oncology, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute and Brigham and Women' s Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Mahal, Brandon A. [Department of Medicine, Brigham and Women' s Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Muralidhar, Vinayak [Department of Radiation Oncology, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute and Brigham and Women' s Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Nezolosky, Michelle [Department of Radiation Oncology, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute and Brigham and Women' s Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Beard, Clair J. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute and Brigham and Women' s Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Den, Robert B. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Sidney Kimmel Medical College at Thomas Jefferson University, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Feng, Felix Y. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Michigan Medical Center, Ann Arbor, Michigan (United States); Hoffman, Karen E. [Department of Radiation Oncology, the University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Martin, Neil E.; Orio, Peter F. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute and Brigham and Women' s Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Nguyen, Paul L., E-mail: pnguyen@LROC.harvard.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute and Brigham and Women' s Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts (United States)

2016-03-15

Purpose: Although the association between higher hospital volume and improved outcomes has been well-documented in surgery, there is little data about whether this effect exists for radiation-treated patients. We investigated whether treatment at a radiation facility that treats a high volume of prostate cancer patients is associated with improved survival for men with high-risk prostate cancer. Methods and Materials: We used the National Cancer Database (NCDB) to identity patients diagnosed with prostate cancer from 2004 to 2006. The radiation case volume (RCV) of each hospital was based on its number of radiation-treated prostate cancer patients. We used propensity-score based analysis to compare the overall survival (OS) of high-risk prostate cancer patients in high versus low RCV hospitals. Primary endpoint is overall survival. Covariates adjusted for were tumor characteristics, sociodemographic factors, radiation type, and use of androgen deprivation therapy (ADT). Results: A total of 19,565 radiation-treated high-risk patients were identified. Median follow-up was 81.0 months (range: 1-108 months). When RCV was coded as a continuous variable, each increment of 100 radiation-managed patients was associated with improved OS (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR]: 0.97; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.95-0.98; P<.0001) after adjusting for known confounders. For illustrative purposes, when RCV was dichotomized at the 80th percentile (43 patients/year), high RCV was associated with improved OS (7-year overall survival 76% vs 74%, log-rank test P=.0005; AHR: 0.91, 95% CI: 0.86-0.96, P=.0005). This association remained significant when RCV was dichotomized at 75th (37 patients/year), 90th (60 patients/year), and 95th (84 patients/year) percentiles but not the 50th (19 patients/year). Conclusions: Our results suggest that treatment at centers with higher prostate cancer radiation case volume is associated with improved OS for radiation-treated men with high-risk prostate

Novel genetic loci associated with hippocampal volume.

Science.gov (United States)

Hibar, Derrek P; Adams, Hieab H H; Jahanshad, Neda; Chauhan, Ganesh; Stein, Jason L; Hofer, Edith; Renteria, Miguel E; Bis, Joshua C; Arias-Vasquez, Alejandro; Ikram, M Kamran; Desrivières, Sylvane; Vernooij, Meike W; Abramovic, Lucija; Alhusaini, Saud; Amin, Najaf; Andersson, Micael; Arfanakis, Konstantinos; Aribisala, Benjamin S; Armstrong, Nicola J; Athanasiu, Lavinia; Axelsson, Tomas; Beecham, Ashley H; Beiser, Alexa; Bernard, Manon; Blanton, Susan H; Bohlken, Marc M; Boks, Marco P; Bralten, Janita; Brickman, Adam M; Carmichael, Owen; Chakravarty, M Mallar; Chen, Qiang; Ching, Christopher R K; Chouraki, Vincent; Cuellar-Partida, Gabriel; Crivello, Fabrice; Den Braber, Anouk; Doan, Nhat Trung; Ehrlich, Stefan; Giddaluru, Sudheer; Goldman, Aaron L; Gottesman, Rebecca F; Grimm, Oliver; Griswold, Michael E; Guadalupe, Tulio; Gutman, Boris A; Hass, Johanna; Haukvik, Unn K; Hoehn, David; Holmes, Avram J; Hoogman, Martine; Janowitz, Deborah; Jia, Tianye; Jørgensen, Kjetil N; Karbalai, Nazanin; Kasperaviciute, Dalia; Kim, Sungeun; Klein, Marieke; Kraemer, Bernd; Lee, Phil H; Liewald, David C M; Lopez, Lorna M; Luciano, Michelle; Macare, Christine; Marquand, Andre F; Matarin, Mar; Mather, Karen A; Mattheisen, Manuel; McKay, David R; Milaneschi, Yuri; Muñoz Maniega, Susana; Nho, Kwangsik; Nugent, Allison C; Nyquist, Paul; Loohuis, Loes M Olde; Oosterlaan, Jaap; Papmeyer, Martina; Pirpamer, Lukas; Pütz, Benno; Ramasamy, Adaikalavan; Richards, Jennifer S; Risacher, Shannon L; Roiz-Santiañez, Roberto; Rommelse, Nanda; Ropele, Stefan; Rose, Emma J; Royle, Natalie A; Rundek, Tatjana; Sämann, Philipp G; Saremi, Arvin; Satizabal, Claudia L; Schmaal, Lianne; Schork, Andrew J; Shen, Li; Shin, Jean; Shumskaya, Elena; Smith, Albert V; Sprooten, Emma; Strike, Lachlan T; Teumer, Alexander; Tordesillas-Gutierrez, Diana; Toro, Roberto; Trabzuni, Daniah; Trompet, Stella; Vaidya, Dhananjay; Van der Grond, Jeroen; Van der Lee, Sven J; Van der Meer, Dennis; Van Donkelaar, Marjolein M J; Van Eijk, Kristel R; Van Erp, Theo G M; Van Rooij, Daan; Walton, Esther; Westlye, Lars T; Whelan, Christopher D; Windham, Beverly G; Winkler, Anderson M; Wittfeld, Katharina; Woldehawariat, Girma; Wolf, Christiane; Wolfers, Thomas; Yanek, Lisa R; Yang, Jingyun; Zijdenbos, Alex; Zwiers, Marcel P; Agartz, Ingrid; Almasy, Laura; Ames, David; Amouyel, Philippe; Andreassen, Ole A; Arepalli, Sampath; Assareh, Amelia A; Barral, Sandra; Bastin, Mark E; Becker, Diane M; Becker, James T; Bennett, David A; Blangero, John; van Bokhoven, Hans; Boomsma, Dorret I; Brodaty, Henry; Brouwer, Rachel M; Brunner, Han G; Buckner, Randy L; Buitelaar, Jan K; Bulayeva, Kazima B; Cahn, Wiepke; Calhoun, Vince D; Cannon, Dara M; Cavalleri, Gianpiero L; Cheng, Ching-Yu; Cichon, Sven; Cookson, Mark R; Corvin, Aiden; Crespo-Facorro, Benedicto; Curran, Joanne E; Czisch, Michael; Dale, Anders M; Davies, Gareth E; De Craen, Anton J M; De Geus, Eco J C; De Jager, Philip L; De Zubicaray, Greig I; Deary, Ian J; Debette, Stéphanie; DeCarli, Charles; Delanty, Norman; Depondt, Chantal; DeStefano, Anita; Dillman, Allissa; Djurovic, Srdjan; Donohoe, Gary; Drevets, Wayne C; Duggirala, Ravi; Dyer, Thomas D; Enzinger, Christian; Erk, Susanne; Espeseth, Thomas; Fedko, Iryna O; Fernández, Guillén; Ferrucci, Luigi; Fisher, Simon E; Fleischman, Debra A; Ford, Ian; Fornage, Myriam; Foroud, Tatiana M; Fox, Peter T; Francks, Clyde; Fukunaga, Masaki; Gibbs, J Raphael; Glahn, David C; Gollub, Randy L; Göring, Harald H H; Green, Robert C; Gruber, Oliver; Gudnason, Vilmundur; Guelfi, Sebastian; Håberg, Asta K; Hansell, Narelle K; Hardy, John; Hartman, Catharina A; Hashimoto, Ryota; Hegenscheid, Katrin; Heinz, Andreas; Le Hellard, Stephanie; Hernandez, Dena G; Heslenfeld, Dirk J; Ho, Beng-Choon; Hoekstra, Pieter J; Hoffmann, Wolfgang; Hofman, Albert; Holsboer, Florian; Homuth, Georg; Hosten, Norbert; Hottenga, Jouke-Jan; Huentelman, Matthew; Hulshoff Pol, Hilleke E; Ikeda, Masashi; Jack, Clifford R; Jenkinson, Mark; Johnson, Robert; Jönsson, Erik G; Jukema, J Wouter; Kahn, René S; Kanai, Ryota; Kloszewska, Iwona; Knopman, David S; Kochunov, Peter; Kwok, John B; Lawrie, Stephen M; Lemaître, Hervé; Liu, Xinmin; Longo, Dan L; Lopez, Oscar L; Lovestone, Simon; Martinez, Oliver; Martinot, Jean-Luc; Mattay, Venkata S; McDonald, Colm; McIntosh, Andrew M; McMahon, Francis J; McMahon, Katie L; Mecocci, Patrizia; Melle, Ingrid; Meyer-Lindenberg, Andreas; Mohnke, Sebastian; Montgomery, Grant W; Morris, Derek W; Mosley, Thomas H; Mühleisen, Thomas W; Müller-Myhsok, Bertram; Nalls, Michael A; Nauck, Matthias; Nichols, Thomas E; Niessen, Wiro J; Nöthen, Markus M; Nyberg, Lars; Ohi, Kazutaka; Olvera, Rene L; Ophoff, Roel A; Pandolfo, Massimo; Paus, Tomas; Pausova, Zdenka; Penninx, Brenda W J H; Pike, G Bruce; Potkin, Steven G; Psaty, Bruce M; Reppermund, Simone; Rietschel, Marcella; Roffman, Joshua L; Romanczuk-Seiferth, Nina; Rotter, Jerome I; Ryten, Mina; Sacco, Ralph L; Sachdev, Perminder S; Saykin, Andrew J; Schmidt, Reinhold; Schmidt, Helena; Schofield, Peter R; Sigursson, Sigurdur; Simmons, Andrew; Singleton, Andrew; Sisodiya, Sanjay M; Smith, Colin; Smoller, Jordan W; Soininen, Hilkka; Steen, Vidar M; Stott, David J; Sussmann, Jessika E; Thalamuthu, Anbupalam; Toga, Arthur W; Traynor, Bryan J; Troncoso, Juan; Tsolaki, Magda; Tzourio, Christophe; Uitterlinden, Andre G; Hernández, Maria C Valdés; Van der Brug, Marcel; van der Lugt, Aad; van der Wee, Nic J A; Van Haren, Neeltje E M; van 't Ent, Dennis; Van Tol, Marie-Jose; Vardarajan, Badri N; Vellas, Bruno; Veltman, Dick J; Völzke, Henry; Walter, Henrik; Wardlaw, Joanna M; Wassink, Thomas H; Weale, Michael E; Weinberger, Daniel R; Weiner, Michael W; Wen, Wei; Westman, Eric; White, Tonya; Wong, Tien Y; Wright, Clinton B; Zielke, Ronald H; Zonderman, Alan B; Martin, Nicholas G; Van Duijn, Cornelia M; Wright, Margaret J; Longstreth, W T; Schumann, Gunter; Grabe, Hans J; Franke, Barbara; Launer, Lenore J; Medland, Sarah E; Seshadri, Sudha; Thompson, Paul M; Ikram, M Arfan

2017-01-18

The hippocampal formation is a brain structure integrally involved in episodic memory, spatial navigation, cognition and stress responsiveness. Structural abnormalities in hippocampal volume and shape are found in several common neuropsychiatric disorders. To identify the genetic underpinnings of hippocampal structure here we perform a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of 33,536 individuals and discover six independent loci significantly associated with hippocampal volume, four of them novel. Of the novel loci, three lie within genes (ASTN2, DPP4 and MAST4) and one is found 200 kb upstream of SHH. A hippocampal subfield analysis shows that a locus within the MSRB3 gene shows evidence of a localized effect along the dentate gyrus, subiculum, CA1 and fissure. Further, we show that genetic variants associated with decreased hippocampal volume are also associated with increased risk for Alzheimer's disease (r g =-0.155). Our findings suggest novel biological pathways through which human genetic variation influences hippocampal volume and risk for neuropsychiatric illness.

Global grey matter volume in adult bipolar patients with and without lithium treatment: A meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Yue Ran; Herrmann, Nathan; Scott, Christopher J M; Black, Sandra E; Khan, Maisha M; Lanctôt, Krista L

2018-01-01

The goal of this meta-analysis was to quantitatively summarize the evidence available on the differences in grey matter volume between lithium-treated and lithium-free bipolar patients. A systematic search was conducted in Cochrane Central, Embase, MEDLINE, and PsycINFO databases for original peer-reviewed journal articles that reported on global grey matter volume in lithium-medicated and lithium-free bipolar patients. Standard mean difference and Hedges' g were used to calculate effect size in a random-effects model. Risk of publication bias was assessed using Egger's test and quality of evidence was assessed using standard criteria. There were 15 studies with a total of 854 patients (368 lithium-medicated, 486 lithium-free) included in the meta-analysis. Global grey matter volume was significantly larger in lithium-treated bipolar patients compared to lithium-free patients (SMD: 0.17, 95% CI: 0.01-0.33; z = 2.11, p = 0.035). Additionally, there was a difference in global grey matter volume between groups in studies that employed semi-automated segmentation methods (SMD: 0.66, 95% CI: 0.01-1.31; z = 1.99, p = 0.047), but no significant difference in studies that used fully-automated segmentation. No publication bias was detected (bias coefficient = - 0.65, p = 0.46). Variability in imaging methods and lack of high-quality evidence limits the interpretation of the findings. Results suggest that lithium-treated patients have a greater global grey matter volume than those who were lithium-free. Further study of the relationship between lithium and grey matter volume may elucidate the therapeutic potential of lithium in conditions characterized by abnormal changes in brain structure. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Price-volume multifractal analysis of the Moroccan stock market

Science.gov (United States)

El Alaoui, Marwane

2017-11-01

In this paper, we analyzed price-volume multifractal cross-correlations of Moroccan Stock Exchange. We chose the period from January 1st 2000 to January 20th 2017 to investigate the multifractal behavior of price change and volume change series. Then, we used multifractal detrended cross-correlations analysis method (MF-DCCA) and multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) to analyze the series. We computed bivariate generalized Hurst exponent, Rényi exponent and spectrum of singularity for each pair of indices to measure quantitatively cross-correlations. Furthermore, we used detrended cross-correlations coefficient (DCCA) and cross-correlation test (Q(m)) to analyze cross-correlation quantitatively and qualitatively. By analyzing results, we found existence of price-volume multifractal cross-correlations. The spectrum width has a strong multifractal cross-correlation. We remarked that volume change series is anti-persistent when we analyzed the generalized Hurst exponent for all moments q. The cross-correlation test showed the presence of a significant cross-correlation. However, DCCA coefficient had a small positive value, which means that the level of correlation is not very significant. Finally, we analyzed sources of multifractality and their degree of contribution in the series.

ZNF804A variants confer risk for heroin addiction and affect decision making and gray matter volume in heroin abusers.

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Yan; Zhao, Li-Yan; Wang, Gui-Bin; Yue, Wei-Hua; He, Yong; Shu, Ni; Lin, Qi-Xiang; Wang, Fan; Li, Jia-Li; Chen, Na; Wang, Hui-Min; Kosten, Thomas R; Feng, Jia-Jia; Wang, Jun; Tang, Yu-De; Liu, Shu-Xue; Deng, Gui-Fa; Diao, Gan-Huan; Tan, Yun-Long; Han, Hong-Bin; Lin, Lu; Shi, Jie

2016-05-01

Drug addiction shares common neurobiological pathways and risk genes with other psychiatric diseases, including psychosis. One of the commonly identified risk genes associated with broad psychosis has been ZNF804A. We sought to test whether psychosis risk variants in ZNF804A increase the risk of heroin addiction by modulating neurocognitive performance and gray matter volume (GMV) in heroin addiction. Using case-control genetic analysis, we compared the distribution of ZNF804A variants (genotype and haplotype) in 1035 heroin abusers and 2887 healthy subjects. We also compared neurocognitive performance (impulsivity, global cognitive ability and decision-making ability) in 224 subjects and GMV in 154 subjects based on the ZNF804A variants. We found significant differences in the distribution of ZNF804A intronic variants (rs1344706 and rs7597593) allele and haplotype frequencies between the heroin and control groups. Decision-making impairment was worse in heroin abusers who carried the ZNF804A risk allele and haplotype. Subjects who carried more risk alleles and haplotypes of ZNF804A had greater GMV in the bilateral insular cortex, right temporal cortex and superior parietal cortex. The interaction between heroin addiction and ZNF804A variants affected GMV in the left sensorimotor cortex. Our findings revealed several ZNF804A variants that were significantly associated with the risk of heroin addiction, and these variants affected decision making and GMV in heroin abusers compared with controls. The precise neural mechanisms that underlie these associations are unknown, which requires future investigations of the effects of ZNF804A on both dopamine neurotransmission and the relative increases in the volume of various brain areas. © 2015 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Risk Analysis of Reservoir Flood Routing Calculation Based on Inflow Forecast Uncertainty

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Binquan Li

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Possible risks in reservoir flood control and regulation cannot be objectively assessed by deterministic flood forecasts, resulting in the probability of reservoir failure. We demonstrated a risk analysis of reservoir flood routing calculation accounting for inflow forecast uncertainty in a sub-basin of Huaihe River, China. The Xinanjiang model was used to provide deterministic flood forecasts, and was combined with the Hydrologic Uncertainty Processor (HUP to quantify reservoir inflow uncertainty in the probability density function (PDF form. Furthermore, the PDFs of reservoir water level (RWL and the risk rate of RWL exceeding a defined safety control level could be obtained. Results suggested that the median forecast (50th percentiles of HUP showed better agreement with observed inflows than the Xinanjiang model did in terms of the performance measures of flood process, peak, and volume. In addition, most observations (77.2% were bracketed by the uncertainty band of 90% confidence interval, with some small exceptions of high flows. Results proved that this framework of risk analysis could provide not only the deterministic forecasts of inflow and RWL, but also the fundamental uncertainty information (e.g., 90% confidence band for the reservoir flood routing calculation.

Risk analysis: opening the process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hubert, Ph.; Mays, C.

1998-01-01

This conference on risk analysis took place in Paris, 11-14 october 1999. Over 200 paper where presented in the seven following sessions: perception; environment and health; persuasive risks; objects and products; personal and collective involvement; assessment and valuation; management. A rational approach to risk analysis has been developed in the three last decades. Techniques for risk assessment have been thoroughly enhanced, risk management approaches have been developed, decision making processes have been clarified, the social dimensions of risk perception and management have been investigated. Nevertheless this construction is being challenged by recent events which reveal how deficits in stakeholder involvement, openness and democratic procedures can undermine risk management actions. Indeed, the global process most components of risk analysis may be radically called into question. Food safety has lately been a prominent issue, but now debates appear, or old debates are revisited in the domains of public health, consumer products safety, waste management, environmental risks, nuclear installations, automobile safety and pollution. To meet the growing pressures for efficiency, openness, accountability, and multi-partner communication in risk analysis, institutional changes are underway in many European countries. However, the need for stakeholders to develop better insight into the process may lead to an evolution of all the components of risks analysis, even in its most (technical' steps. For stakeholders of different professional background, political projects, and responsibilities, risk identification procedures must be rendered understandable, quantitative risk assessment must be intelligible and accommodated in action proposals, ranging from countermeasures to educational programs to insurance mechanisms. Management formats must be open to local and political input and other types of operational feedback. (authors)

Thirteenth water reactor safety research information meeting: proceedings Volume 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Weiss, A.J.

1986-02-01

This six-volume report contains 151 papers out of the 178 that were presented at the Thirteenth Water Reactor Safety Research Information Meeting held at the National Bureau of Standards, Gaithersburg, Maryland, during the week of October 22-25, 1985. The papers are printed in the order of their presentation in each session and describe progress and results of programs in nuclear safety research conducted in this country and abroad. Foreign participation in the meeting included thirty-one different papers presented by researchers from Japan, Canada and eight European countries. The title of the papers and the names of the authors have been updated and may differ from those that appeared in the final program of the meeting. This volume presents information on: risk analysis PRA application; severe accident sequence analysis; risk analysis/dependent failure analysis; and industry safety research

Final safety analysis report for the Galileo mission: Volume 3 (Book 2), Nuclear risk analysis document: Appendices: Revision 1

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1989-01-25

It is the purpose of the NRAD to provide an analysis of the range of potential consequences of accidents which have been identified that are associated with the launching and deployment of the Galileo mission spacecraft. The specific consequences analyzed are those associated with the possible release of radioactive material (fuel) of the Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generators (RTGs). They are in terms of radiation doses to people and areas of deposition of radioactive material. These consequence analyses can be used in several ways. One way is to identify the potential range of consequences which might have to be dealt with if there were to be an accident with a release of fuel, so as to assure that, given such an accident, the health and safety of the public will be reasonably protected. Another use of the information, in conjunction with accident and release probabilities, is to estimate the risks associated with the mission. That is, most space launches occur without incident. Given an accident, the most probable result relative to the RTGs is complete containment of the radioactive material. Only a small fraction of accidents might result in a release of fuel and subsequent radiological consequences. The combination of probability with consequence is risk, which can be compared to other human and societal risks to assure that no undue risks are implied by undertaking the mission. Book 2 contains eight appendices.

Adversarial risk analysis

CERN Document Server

Banks, David L; Rios Insua, David

2015-01-01

Flexible Models to Analyze Opponent Behavior A relatively new area of research, adversarial risk analysis (ARA) informs decision making when there are intelligent opponents and uncertain outcomes. Adversarial Risk Analysis develops methods for allocating defensive or offensive resources against intelligent adversaries. Many examples throughout illustrate the application of the ARA approach to a variety of games and strategic situations. The book shows decision makers how to build Bayesian models for the strategic calculation of their opponents, enabling decision makers to maximize their expected utility or minimize their expected loss. This new approach to risk analysis asserts that analysts should use Bayesian thinking to describe their beliefs about an opponent's goals, resources, optimism, and type of strategic calculation, such as minimax and level-k thinking. Within that framework, analysts then solve the problem from the perspective of the opponent while placing subjective probability distributions on a...

Tumor dose-volume response in image-guided adaptive brachytherapy for cervical cancer: A meta-regression analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Mazeron, Renaud; Castelnau-Marchand, Pauline; Escande, Alexandre; Rivin Del Campo, Eleonor; Maroun, Pierre; Lefkopoulos, Dimitri; Chargari, Cyrus; Haie-Meder, Christine

2016-01-01

Image-guided adaptive brachytherapy is a high precision technique that allows dose escalation and adaptation to tumor response. Two monocentric studies reported continuous dose-volume response relationships, however, burdened by large confidence intervals. The aim was to refine these estimations by performing a meta-regression analysis based on published series. Eligibility was limited to series reporting dosimetric parameters according to the Groupe Européen de Curiethérapie-European SocieTy for Radiation Oncology recommendations. The local control rates reported at 2-3 years were confronted to the mean D90 clinical target volume (CTV) in 2-Gy equivalent using the probit model. The impact of each series on the relationships was pondered according to the number of patients reported. An exhaustive literature search retrieved 13 series reporting on 1299 patients. D90 high-risk CTV ranged from 70.9 to 93.1 Gy. The probit model showed a significant correlation between the D90 and the probability of achieving local control (p < 0.0001). The D90 associated to a 90% probability of achieving local control was 81.4 Gy (78.3-83.8 Gy). The planning aim of 90 Gy corresponded to a 95.0% probability (92.8-96.3%). For the intermediate-risk CTV, less data were available, with 873 patients from eight institutions. Reported mean D90 intermediate-risk CTV ranged from 61.7 to 69.1 Gy. A significant dose-volume effect was observed (p = 0.009). The D90 of 60 Gy was associated to a 79.4% (60.2-86.0%) local control probability. Based on published data from a high number of patients, significant dose-volume effect relationships were confirmed and refined between the D90 of both CTV and the probability of achieving local control. Further studies based on individual data are required to develop nomograms including nondosimetric prognostic criteria. Copyright © 2016 American Brachytherapy Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

SCALE-4 analysis of pressurized water reactor critical configurations. Volume 1: Summary

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

DeHart, M.D.

1995-03-01

The requirements of ANSI/ANS 8.1 specify that calculational methods for away-from-reactor criticality safety analyses be validated against experimental measurements. If credit is to be taken for the reduced reactivity of burned or spent fuel relative to its original fresh composition, it is necessary to benchmark computational methods used in determining such reactivity worth against spent fuel reactivity measurements. This report summarizes a portion of the ongoing effort to benchmark away-from-reactor criticality analysis methods using critical configurations from commercial pressurized water reactors (PWR). The analysis methodology utilized for all calculations in this report is based on the modules and data associated with the SCALE-4 code system. Each of the five volumes comprising this report provides an overview of the methodology applied. Subsequent volumes also describe in detail the approach taken in performing criticality calculations for these PWR configurations: Volume 2 describes criticality calculations for the Tennessee Valley Authority's Sequoyah Unit 2 reactor for Cycle 3; Volume 3 documents the analysis of Virginia Power's Surry Unit 1 reactor for the Cycle 2 core; Volume 4 documents the calculations performed based on GPU Nuclear Corporation's Three Mile Island Unit 1 Cycle 5 core; and, lastly, Volume 5 describes the analysis of Virginia Power's North Anna Unit 1 Cycle 5 core. Each of the reactor-specific volumes provides the details of calculations performed to determine the effective multiplication factor for each reactor core for one or more critical configurations using the SCALE-4 system; these results are summarized in this volume. Differences between the core designs and their possible impact on the criticality calculations are also discussed. Finally, results are presented for additional analyses performed to verify that solutions were sufficiently converged

Southern forest inventory and analysis volume equation user’s guide

Science.gov (United States)

Christopher M. Oswalt; Roger C. Conner

2011-01-01

Reliable volume estimation procedures are fundamental to the mission of the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program. Moreover, public access to FIA program procedures is imperative. Here we present the volume estimation procedures used by the southern FIA program of the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service Southern Research Station. The guide presented...

European market integration for gas? Volume flexibility and political risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Asche, Frank; Tveteras, Ragnar; Osmundsen, Petter

2002-01-01

Long-term take-or-pay contracts regulating gas exports to the Continent are described and analyzed. We thereafter examine whether the German gas market is integrated. Time series of Norwegian, Dutch and Russian gas export prices to Germany in 1990-1998 are examined. Cointegration tests show that that the different border prices for gas to Germany move proportionally over time, indicating an integrated gas market. We find differences in mean prices, with Russian gas being sold at prices systematically lower than Dutch and Norwegian gas. Among the explanatory factors for price discrepancies are differences in volume flexibility (swing) and perceived political risk

Risk analysis of investments in-farm milk cooling tanks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Danielle D. Sant´Anna

2003-06-01

Full Text Available A risk analysis for the installation of milk cooling tanks (250, 500 and 1,000 L on Brazilian rural properties was conducted in this study. The results showed that all investments had a return higher than the annual 12% minimum rate of attractiveness. There was a direct relationship between tank size and investment profitability and an inverse relation between size and risk. The probability of achieving returns lower than the opportunity cost was highest for the smallest tank (42%. In order to make the investment in small cooling tanks more attractive, the dairy industry incentives offered to farmers for supplying cooled milk could be increased. However, this approach might make investments in bulk milk collection by dairy companies infeasible. Thus, a recommendable strategy for a successful modernization of the Brazilian dairy sector’s inbound logistics would be to promote an increase in the volume of the milk produced per farm.

Effect of lung-protective ventilation with lower tidal volumes on clinical outcomes among patients undergoing surgery: a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

Science.gov (United States)

Gu, Wan-Jie; Wang, Fei; Liu, Jing-Chen

2015-02-17

In anesthetized patients undergoing surgery, the role of lung-protective ventilation with lower tidal volumes is unclear. We performed a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) to evaluate the effect of this ventilation strategy on postoperative outcomes. We searched electronic databases from inception through September 2014. We included RCTs that compared protective ventilation with lower tidal volumes and conventional ventilation with higher tidal volumes in anesthetized adults undergoing surgery. We pooled outcomes using a random-effects model. The primary outcome measures were lung injury and pulmonary infection. We included 19 trials (n=1348). Compared with patients in the control group, those who received lung-protective ventilation had a decreased risk of lung injury (risk ratio [RR] 0.36, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.17 to 0.78; I2=0%) and pulmonary infection (RR 0.46, 95% CI 0.26 to 0.83; I2=8%), and higher levels of arterial partial pressure of carbon dioxide (standardized mean difference 0.47, 95% CI 0.18 to 0.75; I2=65%). No significant differences were observed between the patient groups in atelectasis, mortality, length of hospital stay, length of stay in the intensive care unit or the ratio of arterial partial pressure of oxygen to fraction of inspired oxygen. Anesthetized patients who received ventilation with lower tidal volumes during surgery had a lower risk of lung injury and pulmonary infection than those given conventional ventilation with higher tidal volumes. Implementation of a lung-protective ventilation strategy with lower tidal volumes may lower the incidence of these outcomes. © 2015 Canadian Medical Association or its licensors.

Preseason Workload Volume and High-Risk Periods for Noncontact Injury Across Multiple Australian Football League Seasons.

Science.gov (United States)

Colby, Marcus J; Dawson, Brian; Heasman, Jarryd; Rogalski, Brent; Rosenberg, Michael; Lester, Leanne; Peeling, Peter

2017-07-01

Colby, MJ, Dawson, B, Heasman, J, Rogalski, B, Rosenberg, M, Lester, L, and Peeling, P. Preseason workload volume and high-risk periods for noncontact injury across multiple Australian Football League seasons. J Strength Cond Res 31(7): 1821-1829, 2017-The purpose of this study was to assess the association between preseason workloads and noncontact injury risk in Australian football players. Individual player injury data were recorded over 4 full seasons (2012-15) from one professional club. Noncontact injury incidence (per 1,000 "on legs" field training and game hours) was compared across the preseason, precompetition, and in-season phases to determine relative noncontact injury risk. Preseason workloads (global positioning system-derived total distance run and sprint distance) and individual (fixed) injury risk factors (age, previous injury history) were incorporated into the analysis. A generalized estimating equation with a binary logistic function modeled potential risk factors with noncontact injury for selected periods across the annual cycle. Odds ratios were calculated to determine the relative injury risk. The (preseason) precompetition phase (19.1 injuries per 1,000 hours) and (in-season) rounds 12-17 (16.0 injuries per 1,000 hours) resulted in the highest injury incidence. Low cumulative total distances in late preseason (<108 km) and precompetition (76-88 km) periods were associated with significantly (p ≤ 0.05) greater injury risk during the in-season phase. In conclusion, these results suggest players are at the greatest injury risk during the precompetition period, with low preseason cumulative workloads associated with increased in-season injury risk. Therefore, strength and conditioning staff should place particular emphasis on achieving at least moderate training loads during and leading into this phase, where competitive game play is first introduced.

Benefit-Cost Analysis of Integrated Paratransit Systems : Volume 6. Technical Appendices.

Science.gov (United States)

1979-09-01

This last volume, includes five technical appendices which document the methodologies used in the benefit-cost analysis. They are the following: Scenario analysis methodology; Impact estimation; Example of impact estimation; Sensitivity analysis; Agg...

Evaluation of potential severe accidents during low power and shutdown operations at Surry, Unit-1: Analysis of core damage frequency from internal events during mid-loop operations. Appendices F-H, Volume 2, Part 4

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chu, T.L.; Musicki, Z.; Kohut, P.; Yang, J.; Bozoki, G.; Hsu, C.J.; Diamond, D.J.; Bley, D.; Johnson, D.; Holmes, B.

1994-06-01

Traditionally, probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) of severe accidents in nuclear power plants have considered initiating events potentially occurring only during full power operation. Some previous screening analyses that were performed for other modes of operation suggested that risks during those modes were small relative to full power operation. However, more recent studies and operational experience have implied that accidents during low power and shutdown could be significant contributors to risk. Two plants, Surry (pressurized water reactor) and Grand Gulf (boiling water reactor), were selected as the plants to be studied. The objectives of the program are to assess the risks of severe accidents initiated during plant operational states other than full power operation and to compare the estimated core damage frequencies, important accident sequences and other qualitative and quantitative results with those accidents initiated during full power operation as assessed in NUREG-1150. The scope of the program includes that of a level-3 PRA. In phase 2, mid-loop operation was selected as the plant configuration to be analyzed based on the results of the phase 1 study. The objective of the phase 2 study is to perform a detailed analysis of the potential accident scenarios that may occur during mid-loop operation, and compare the results with those of NUREG-1150. The scope of the level-1 study includes plant damage state analysis, and uncertainty analysis. Volume 1 summarizes the results of the study. Internal events analysis is documented in Volume 2. It also contains an appendix that documents the part of the phase 1 study that has to do with POSs other than mid-loop operation. Internal fire and internal flood analyses are documented in Volumes 3 and 4. A separate study on seismic analysis, documented in Volume 5, was performed for the NRC by Future Resources Associates, Inc. Volume 6 documents the accident progression, source terms, and consequence analysis

Does Flywheel Paradigm Training Improve Muscle Volume and Force? A Meta-Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Nuñez Sanchez, Francisco J; Sáez de Villarreal, Eduardo

2017-11-01

Núñez Sanchez, FJ and Sáez de Villarreal, E. Does flywheel paradigm training improve muscle volume and force? A meta-analysis. J Strength Cond Res 31(11): 3177-3186, 2017-Several studies have confirmed the efficacy of flywheel paradigm training for improving or benefiting muscle volume and force. A meta-analysis of 13 studies with a total of 18 effect sizes was performed to analyse the role of various factors on the effectiveness of flywheel paradigm training. The following inclusion criteria were employed for the analysis: (a) randomized studies; (b) high validity and reliability instruments; (c) published in a high quality peer-reviewed journal; (d) healthy participants; (e) studies where the eccentric programme were described; and (f) studies where increases in muscle volume and force were measured before and after training. Increases in muscle volume and force were noted through the use of flywheel systems during short periods of training. The increase in muscle mass appears was not influenced by the existence of eccentric overload during the exercise. The increase in force was significantly higher with the existence of eccentric overload during the exercise. The responses identified in this analysis are essential and should be considered by strength and conditioning professionals regarding the most appropriate dose response trends for flywheel paradigm systems to optimize the increase in muscle volume and force.

Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE), Version 5.0: Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) reference manual. Volume 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Russell, K.D.; Kvarfordt, K.J.; Skinner, N.L.; Wood, S.T.; Rasmuson, D.M.

1994-07-01

The Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE) refers to a set of several microcomputer programs that were developed to create and analyze probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs), primarily for nuclear power plants. The Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) is a state-of-the-art, microcomputer-based probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model development and analysis tool to address key nuclear plant safety issues. IRRAS is an integrated software tool that gives the use the ability to create and analyze fault trees and accident sequences using a microcomputer. This program provides functions that range from graphical fault tree construction to cut set generation and quantification to report generation. Version 1.0 of the IRRAS program was released in February of 1987. Since then, many user comments and enhancements have been incorporated into the program providing a much more powerful and user-friendly system. This version has been designated IRRAS 5.0 and is the subject of this Reference Manual. Version 5.0 of IRRAS provides the same capabilities as earlier versions and ads the ability to perform location transformations, seismic analysis, and provides enhancements to the user interface as well as improved algorithm performance. Additionally, version 5.0 contains new alphanumeric fault tree and event used for event tree rules, recovery rules, and end state partitioning

Environmental risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lima-e-Silva, Pedro Paulo de

1996-01-01

The conventional Risk Analysis (RA) relates usually a certain undesired event frequency with its consequences. Such technique is used nowadays in Brazil to analyze accidents and their consequences strictly under the human approach, valuing loss of human equipment, human structures and human lives, without considering the damage caused to natural resources that keep life possible on Earth. This paradigm was developed primarily because of the Homo sapiens' lack of perception upon the natural web needed to sustain his own life. In reality, the Brazilian professionals responsible today for licensing, auditing and inspecting environmental aspects of human activities face huge difficulties in making technical specifications and procedures leading to acceptable levels of impact, furthermore considering the intrinsic difficulties to define those levels. Therefore, in Brazil the RA technique is a weak tool for licensing for many reasons, and of them are its short scope (only accident considerations) and wrong a paradigm (only human direct damages). A paper from the author about the former was already proposed to the 7th International Conference on Environmetrics, past July'96, USP-SP. This one discusses the extension of the risk analysis concept to take into account environmental consequences, transforming the conventional analysis into a broader methodology named here as Environmental Risk Analysis. (author)

Thermodynamic analysis of a Stirling engine including regenerator dead volume

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Puech, Pascal; Tishkova, Victoria [Universite de Toulouse, UPS, CNRS, CEMES, 29 rue Jeanne Marvig, F-31055 Toulouse (France)

2011-02-15

This paper provides a theoretical investigation on the thermodynamic analysis of a Stirling engine with linear and sinusoidal variations of the volume. The regenerator in a Stirling engine is an internal heat exchanger allowing to reach high efficiency. We used an isothermal model to analyse the net work and the heat stored in the regenerator during a complete cycle. We show that the engine efficiency with perfect regeneration doesn't depend on the regenerator dead volume but this dead volume strongly amplifies the imperfect regeneration effect. An analytical expression to estimate the improvement due to the regenerator has been proposed including the combined effects of dead volume and imperfect regeneration. This could be used at the very preliminary stage of the engine design process. (author)

Doppler sonography of diabetic feet: Quantitative analysis of blood flow volume

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Seo, Young Lan; Kim, Ho Chul; Choi, Chul Soon; Yoon, Dae Young; Han, Dae Hee; Moon, Jeung Hee; Bae, Sang Hoon

2002-01-01

To analyze Doppler sonographic findings of diabetic feet by estimating the quantitative blood flow volume and by analyzing waveform on Doppler. Doppler sonography was performed in thirty four patients (10 diabetic patients with foot ulceration, 14 diabetic patients without ulceration and 10 normal patients as the normal control group) to measure the flow volume of the arteries of the lower extremities (posterior and anterior tibial arteries, and distal femoral artery. Analysis of doppler waveforms was also done to evaluate the nature of the changed blood flow volume of diabetic patients, and the waveforms were classified into triphasic, biphasic-1, biphasic-2 and monophasic patterns. Flow volume of arteries in diabetic patients with foot ulceration was increased witha statistical significance when compared to that of diabetes patients without foot ulceration of that of normal control group (P<0.05). Analysis of Doppler waveform revealed that the frequency of biphasic-2 pattern was significantly higher in diabetic patients than in normal control group(p<0.05). Doppler sonography in diabetic feet showed increased flow volume and biphasic Doppler waveform, and these findings suggest neuropathy rather than ischemic changes in diabetic feet.

Doppler sonography of diabetic feet: Quantitative analysis of blood flow volume

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Seo, Young Lan; Kim, Ho Chul; Choi, Chul Soon; Yoon, Dae Young; Han, Dae Hee; Moon, Jeung Hee; Bae, Sang Hoon [Hallym University College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

2002-09-15

To analyze Doppler sonographic findings of diabetic feet by estimating the quantitative blood flow volume and by analyzing waveform on Doppler. Doppler sonography was performed in thirty four patients (10 diabetic patients with foot ulceration, 14 diabetic patients without ulceration and 10 normal patients as the normal control group) to measure the flow volume of the arteries of the lower extremities (posterior and anterior tibial arteries, and distal femoral artery. Analysis of doppler waveforms was also done to evaluate the nature of the changed blood flow volume of diabetic patients, and the waveforms were classified into triphasic, biphasic-1, biphasic-2 and monophasic patterns. Flow volume of arteries in diabetic patients with foot ulceration was increased witha statistical significance when compared to that of diabetes patients without foot ulceration of that of normal control group (P<0.05). Analysis of Doppler waveform revealed that the frequency of biphasic-2 pattern was significantly higher in diabetic patients than in normal control group(p<0.05). Doppler sonography in diabetic feet showed increased flow volume and biphasic Doppler waveform, and these findings suggest neuropathy rather than ischemic changes in diabetic feet.

Perception and acceptance of technological risk sources. Volume 1. Theory of risk acceptance: research approaches and models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Renn, O

1981-01-01

Volume 1 gives an introduction to the scope of this social analysis of the nuclear energy problem; it reviews the state-of-the-art of social research in this field and presents the theoretical and terminological concept and its form of operationalization.

When high-volume PCI operators in high-volume hospitals move to lower volume hospitals-Do they still maintain high volume and quality of outcomes?

Science.gov (United States)

Lu, Tsung-Hsueh; Li, Sheng-Tun; Liang, Fu-Wen; Lee, Jo-Chi; Yin, Wei-Hsian

2017-10-31

The aim of this quasi-experimental study was to examine whether high-volume percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) operators still maintain high volume and quality of outcomes when they moved to lower volume hospitals. Systematic reviews have indicated that high-volume PCI operators and hospitals have higher quality outcomes. However, little is known on whether high PCI volume and high quality outcomes are mainly due to operator characteristics (i.e., skill and experience) and is portable across organizations or whether it is due to hospital characteristics (i.e., equipment, team, and management system) and is less portable. We used Taiwan National Health Insurance claims data 2000-2012 to identify 98 high-volume PCI operators, 10 of whom moved from one hospital to another during the study period. We compared the PCI volume, risk-adjusted mortality ratio, and major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE) ratio before and after moving. Of the 10 high-volume operators who moved, 6 moved from high- to moderate- or low-volume hospitals, with median annual PCI volumes (interquartile range) of 130 (117-165) in prior hospitals and 54 (46-84) in subsequent hospitals (the hospital the operator moved to), and the remaining 4 moved from high to high-volume hospitals, with median annual PCI volumes (interquartile range) of 151 (133-162) in prior hospitals and 193 (178-239) in subsequent hospitals. No significant differences were observed in the risk-adjusted mortality ratios and MACE ratios between high-volume operators and matched controls before and after moving. High-volume operators cannot maintain high volume when they moved from high to moderate or low-volume hospitals; however, the quality of care is maintained. High PCI volume and high-quality outcomes are less portable and more hospital bound. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

[Correlation analysis of cement leakage with volume ratio of intravertebral bone cement to vertebral body and vertebral body wall incompetence in percutaneous vertebroplasty for osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures].

Science.gov (United States)

Liang, De; Ye, Linqiang; Jiang, Xiaobing; Huang, Weiquan; Yao, Zhensong; Tang, Yongchao; Zhang, Shuncong; Jin, Daxiang

2014-11-01

To investigate the risk factors of cement leakage in percutaneous vertebroplasty (PVP) for osteoporotic vertebral compression fracture (OVCF). Between March 2011 and March 2012, 98 patients with single level OVCF were treated by PVP, and the clinical data were analyzed retrospectively. There were 13 males and 85 females, with a mean age of 77.2 years (range, 54-95 years). The mean disease duration was 43 days (range, 15-120 days), and the mean T score of bone mineral density (BMD) was -3.8 (range, -6.7- -2.5). Bilateral transpedicular approach was used in all the patients. The patients were divided into cement leakage group and no cement leakage group by occurrence of cement leakage based on postoperative CT. Single factor analysis was used to analyze the difference between 2 groups in T score of BMD, operative level, preoperative anterior compression degree of operative vertebrae, preoperative middle compression degree of operative vertebrae, preoperative sagittal Cobb angle of operative vertebrae, preoperative vertebral body wall incompetence, cement volume, and volume ratio of intravertebral bone cement to vertebral body. All relevant factors were introduced to logistic regression analysis to analyze the risk factors of cement leakage. All procedures were performed successfully. The mean operation time was 40 minutes (range, 30-50 minutes), and the mean volume ratio of intravertebral bone cement to vertebral body was 24.88% (range, 7.84%-38.99%). Back pain was alleviated significantly in all the patients postoperatively. All patients were followed up with a mean time of 8 months (range, 6-12 months). Cement leakage occurred in 49 patients. Single factor analysis showed that there were significant differences in the volume ratio of intravertebral bone cement to vertebral body and preoperative vertebral body wall incompetence between 2 groups (P 0.05). The logistic regression analysis showed that the volume ratio of intravertebral bone cement to vertebral body (P

Techno-economic risk analysis of glycerol biorefinery concepts against market price fluctuation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gargalo, Carina L.; Cheali, Peam; Gernaey, Krist

. The high-value added bio-products boost profitability, the high-volume fuel helps meet national energy targets, and the power production cuts costs and dodges greenhouse-gas emissions [1] [2] [3]. The increasing amount of biodiesel production worldwide (e.g. from vegetable oils, palm oil, animal fats......) and the associated economic risks against historical market fluctuations when assessing the economics of competing glycerol biorefinery concepts. The aim is to compare the fitness/survival of the biorefinery concepts under extreme market disturbances. To perform this analysis, we used a superstructure based...

A non-perturbative analysis in finite volume gauge theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koller, J.; State Univ. of New York, Stony Brook; Van Baal, P.; State Univ. of New York, Stony Brook

1988-01-01

We discuss SU(2) gauge theory on a three-torus using a finite volume expansion. Our discovery of natural coordinates allows us to obtain continuum results in a region where Monte Carlo data are also available. The obtained results agree well with the perturbative and semiclassical analysis for small volumes, and there is fair agreement with the Monte Carlo results in intermediate volumes. The simple picture which emerges for the approximate low energy dynamics is that of three interacting particles enclosed in a sphere, with zero total 'angular momentum'. The validity of an adiabatic approximation is investigated. The fundamentally new understanding gained, is that non-perturbative dynamics can be incorporated by imposing boundary conditions which arise through the nontrivial topology of configuration space. (orig.)

Component of the risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martinez, I.; Campon, G.

2013-01-01

The power point presentation reviews issues like analysis of risk (Codex), management risk, preliminary activities manager, relationship between government and industries, microbiological danger and communication of risk

Credit Risk Evaluation : Modeling - Analysis - Management

OpenAIRE

Wehrspohn, Uwe

2002-01-01

An analysis and further development of the building blocks of modern credit risk management: -Definitions of default -Estimation of default probabilities -Exposures -Recovery Rates -Pricing -Concepts of portfolio dependence -Time horizons for risk calculations -Quantification of portfolio risk -Estimation of risk measures -Portfolio analysis and portfolio improvement -Evaluation and comparison of credit risk models -Analytic portfolio loss distributions The thesis contributes to the evaluatio...

Deep Learning Algorithm for Auto-Delineation of High-Risk Oropharyngeal Clinical Target Volumes With Built-In Dice Similarity Coefficient Parameter Optimization Function.

Science.gov (United States)

Cardenas, Carlos E; McCarroll, Rachel E; Court, Laurence E; Elgohari, Baher A; Elhalawani, Hesham; Fuller, Clifton D; Kamal, Mona J; Meheissen, Mohamed A M; Mohamed, Abdallah S R; Rao, Arvind; Williams, Bowman; Wong, Andrew; Yang, Jinzhong; Aristophanous, Michalis

2018-06-01

Automating and standardizing the contouring of clinical target volumes (CTVs) can reduce interphysician variability, which is one of the largest sources of uncertainty in head and neck radiation therapy. In addition to using uniform margin expansions to auto-delineate high-risk CTVs, very little work has been performed to provide patient- and disease-specific high-risk CTVs. The aim of the present study was to develop a deep neural network for the auto-delineation of high-risk CTVs. Fifty-two oropharyngeal cancer patients were selected for the present study. All patients were treated at The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center from January 2006 to August 2010 and had previously contoured gross tumor volumes and CTVs. We developed a deep learning algorithm using deep auto-encoders to identify physician contouring patterns at our institution. These models use distance map information from surrounding anatomic structures and the gross tumor volume as input parameters and conduct voxel-based classification to identify voxels that are part of the high-risk CTV. In addition, we developed a novel probability threshold selection function, based on the Dice similarity coefficient (DSC), to improve the generalization of the predicted volumes. The DSC-based function is implemented during an inner cross-validation loop, and probability thresholds are selected a priori during model parameter optimization. We performed a volumetric comparison between the predicted and manually contoured volumes to assess our model. The predicted volumes had a median DSC value of 0.81 (range 0.62-0.90), median mean surface distance of 2.8 mm (range 1.6-5.5), and median 95th Hausdorff distance of 7.5 mm (range 4.7-17.9) when comparing our predicted high-risk CTVs with the physician manual contours. These predicted high-risk CTVs provided close agreement to the ground-truth compared with current interobserver variability. The predicted contours could be implemented clinically, with only

Risk Analysis in Road Tunnels – Most Important Risk Indicators

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Berchtold, Florian; Knaust, Christian; Thöns, Sebastian

2016-01-01

Methodologies on fire risk analysis in road tunnels consider numerous factors affecting risks (risk indicators) and express the results by risk measures. But only few comprehensive studies on effects of risk indicators on risk measures are available. For this reason, this study quantifies...... the effects and highlights the most important risk indicators with the aim to support further developments in risk analysis. Therefore, a system model of a road tunnel was developed to determine the risk measures. The system model can be divided into three parts: the fire part connected to the fire model Fire...... Dynamics Simulator (FDS); the evacuation part connected to the evacuation model FDS+Evac; and the frequency part connected to a model to calculate the frequency of fires. This study shows that the parts of the system model (and their most important risk indicators) affect the risk measures in the following...

Risk analysis in radiosurgery treatments using risk matrices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Delgado, J. M.; Sanchez Cayela, C.; Ramirez, M. L.; Perez, A.

2011-01-01

The aim of this study is the risk analysis process stereotactic single-dose radiotherapy and evaluation of those initiating events that lead to increased risk and a possible solution in the design of barriers.

Volume 2. Probabilistic analysis of HTGR application studies. Supporting data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1980-09-01

Volume II, Probabilistic Analysis of HTGR Application Studies - Supporting Data, gives the detail data, both deterministic and probabilistic, employed in the calculation presented in Volume I. The HTGR plants and the fossil plants considered in the study are listed. GCRA provided the technical experts from which the data were obtained by MAC personnel. The names of the technical experts (interviewee) and the analysts (interviewer) are given for the probabilistic data

Frequency Analysis of Gradient Estimators in Volume Rendering

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bentum, Marinus Jan; Lichtenbelt, Barthold B.A.; Malzbender, Tom

1996-01-01

Gradient information is used in volume rendering to classify and color samples along a ray. In this paper, we present an analysis of the theoretically ideal gradient estimator and compare it to some commonly used gradient estimators. A new method is presented to calculate the gradient at arbitrary

PATRAM '83: 7th international symposium on packaging and transportation of radioactive materials. Proceedings. Volume 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1983-12-01

Volume 1 contains the papers from the following sessions: Plenary session; international regulations; fracture toughness of ferritic steels; monolithic cast iron casks; risk analysis techniques; storage in packagings; packaging design considerations; risk analysis; facility/transportation system interface; research and development programs; UF 6 packagings; national regulations; transportation operations and traffic; containment, seals, and leakage; and radiation risk experiences

Projection models for health-effects assessment in populations exposed to radioactive and nonradioactive pollutants. Volume I. Introduction to the SPAHR demographic model for health risk

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Collins, J.J.; Lundy, R.T.; Grahn, D.; Ginevan, M.E.

1982-09-01

The Simulation Package for the Analysis of Health Risk (SPAHR) is a computer software package based upon a demographic model for health risk projections. The model extends several health risk projection models by making realistic assumptions about the population at risk, and thus represents a distinct improvement over previous models. Complete documentation for use of SPAHR is contained in this five-volume publication. The demographic model in SPAHR estimates population response to environmental toxic exposures. Latency of response, changing dose level over time, competing risks from other causes of death, and population structure can be incorporated into SPAHR to project health risks. Risks are measured by morbid years, number of deaths, and loss of life expectancy. Comparisons of estimates of excess deaths demonstrate that previous health risk projection models may have underestimated excess deaths by a factor of from 2 to 10, depending on the pollutant and the exposure scenario. The software supporting the use of the demographic model is designed to be user oriented. Complex risk projections are made by responding to a series of prompts generated by the package. The flexibility and ease of use of SPAHR make it an important contribution to existing models and software packages. The first volume presents the theory behind the SPAHR health risk projection model and several applications of the model to actual pollution episodes. The elements required for an effective health risk projection model are specified, and the models that have been used to date in health risk projections are outlined. These are compared with the demographic model, whose formulation is described in detail. Examples of the application of air pollution and radiation dose-response functions are included in order to demonstrate the estimation of future mortality and morbidity levels and the range of variation in excess deaths that occurs when populations structure is changed.

Projection models for health-effects assessment in populations exposed to radioactive and nonradioactive pollutants. Volume I. Introduction to the SPAHR demographic model for health risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Collins, J.J.; Lundy, R.T.; Grahn, D.; Ginevan, M.E.

1982-09-01

The Simulation Package for the Analysis of Health Risk (SPAHR) is a computer software package based upon a demographic model for health risk projections. The model extends several health risk projection models by making realistic assumptions about the population at risk, and thus represents a distinct improvement over previous models. Complete documentation for use of SPAHR is contained in this five-volume publication. The demographic model in SPAHR estimates population response to environmental toxic exposures. Latency of response, changing dose level over time, competing risks from other causes of death, and population structure can be incorporated into SPAHR to project health risks. Risks are measured by morbid years, number of deaths, and loss of life expectancy. Comparisons of estimates of excess deaths demonstrate that previous health risk projection models may have underestimated excess deaths by a factor of from 2 to 10, depending on the pollutant and the exposure scenario. The software supporting the use of the demographic model is designed to be user oriented. Complex risk projections are made by responding to a series of prompts generated by the package. The flexibility and ease of use of SPAHR make it an important contribution to existing models and software packages. The first volume presents the theory behind the SPAHR health risk projection model and several applications of the model to actual pollution episodes. The elements required for an effective health risk projection model are specified, and the models that have been used to date in health risk projections are outlined. These are compared with the demographic model, whose formulation is described in detail. Examples of the application of air pollution and radiation dose-response functions are included in order to demonstrate the estimation of future mortality and morbidity levels and the range of variation in excess deaths that occurs when populations structure is changed

Risk analysis of Odelouca cofferdam

OpenAIRE

Pimenta, L.; Caldeira, L.; Maranha das Neves, E.

2009-01-01

In this paper we present the risk analysis of Odelouca Cofferdam, using an event tree analysis. The initializing events, failure modes and analysed limit states are discussed based on an influence diagram. The constructed event trees and their interpretation are presented. The obtained risk values are represented in an FN plot superimposed to the acceptability and tolerability risk limits proposed for Portuguese dams. Initially, particular emphasis is placed on the main characteristic...

Generalized indices for radiation risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bykov, A.A.; Demin, V.F.

1989-01-01

A new approach to ensuring nuclear safety has begun forming since the early eighties. The approach based on the probabilistic safety analysis, the principles of acceptable risk, the optimization of safety measures, etc. has forced a complex of adequate quantitative methods of assessment, safety analysis and risk management to be developed. The method of radiation risk assessment and analysis hold a prominent place in the complex. National and international research and regulatory organizations ICRP, IAEA, WHO, UNSCEAR, OECD/NEA have given much attention to the development of the conceptual and methodological basis of those methods. Some resolutions of the National Commission of Radiological Protection (NCRP) and the Problem Commission on Radiation Hygiene of the USSR Ministry of Health should be also noted. Both CBA (cost benefit analysis) and other methods of radiation risk analysis and safety management use a system of natural and socio-economic indices characterizing the radiation risk or damage. There exist a number of problems associated with the introduction, justification and use of these indices. For example, the price, a, of radiation damage, or collective dose unit, is a noteworthy index. The difficulties in its qualitative and quantitative determination are still an obstacle for a wide application of CBA to the radiation risk analysis and management. During recent 10-15 years these problems have been a subject of consideration for many authors. The present paper also considers the issues of the qualitative and quantitative justification of the indices of radiation risk analysis

Preliminary analysis of risk factors for late rectal toxicity after helical tomotherapy for prostate cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tomita, Natsuo; Soga, Norihito; Ogura, Yuji

2013-01-01

The purpose of this study is to examine risk factors for late rectal toxicity for localized prostate cancer patients treated with helical tomotherapy (HT). The patient cohort of this retrospective study was composed of 241 patients treated with HT and followed up regularly. Toxicity levels were scored according to the Radiation Therapy Oncology Group grading scale. The clinical and dosimetric potential factors increasing the risk of late rectal toxicity, such as age, diabetes, anticoagulants, prior abdominal surgery, prescribed dose, maximum dose of the rectum, and the percentage of the rectum covered by 70 Gy (V70), 60 Gy (V60), 40 Gy (V40) and 20 Gy (V20) were compared between ≤ Grade 1 and ≥ Grade 2 toxicity groups using the Student's t-test. Multivariable logistic regression analysis of the factors that appeared to be associated with the risk of late rectal toxicity (as determined by the Student's t-test) was performed. The median follow-up time was 35 months. Late Grade 2-3 rectal toxicity was observed in 18 patients (7.4%). Age, the maximum dose of the rectum, V70 and V60 of the ≥ Grade 2 toxicity group were significantly higher than in those of the ≤ Grade 1 toxicity group (P=0.00093, 0.048, 0.0030 and 0.0021, respectively). No factor was significant in the multivariable analysis. The result of this study indicates that the risk of late rectal toxicity correlates with the rectal volume exposed to high doses of HT for localized prostate cancer. Further follow-up and data accumulation may establish dose-volume modeling to predict rectal complications after HT. (author)

The relationships between breast volume, breast dense volume and volumetric breast density with body mass index, body fat mass and ethnicity

Science.gov (United States)

Zakariyah, N.; Pathy, N. B.; Taib, N. A. M.; Rahmat, K.; Judy, C. W.; Fadzil, F.; Lau, S.; Ng, K. H.

2016-03-01

It has been shown that breast density and obesity are related to breast cancer risk. The aim of this study is to investigate the relationships of breast volume, breast dense volume and volumetric breast density (VBD) with body mass index (BMI) and body fat mass (BFM) for the three ethnic groups (Chinese, Malay and Indian) in Malaysia. We collected raw digital mammograms from 2450 women acquired on three digital mammography systems. The mammograms were analysed using Volpara software to obtain breast volume, breast dense volume and VBD. Body weight, BMI and BFM of the women were measured using a body composition analyser. Multivariable logistic regression was used to determine the independent predictors of increased overall breast volume, breast dense volume and VBD. Indians have highest breast volume and breast dense volume followed by Malays and Chinese. While Chinese are highest in VBD, followed by Malay and Indian. Multivariable analysis showed that increasing BMI and BFM were independent predictors of increased overall breast volume and dense volume. Moreover, BMI and BFM were independently and inversely related to VBD.

Converging stereotactic radiotherapy using kilovoltage X-rays: experimental irradiation of normal rabbit lung and dose-volume analysis with Monte Carlo simulation.

Science.gov (United States)

Kawase, Takatsugu; Kunieda, Etsuo; Deloar, Hossain M; Tsunoo, Takanori; Seki, Satoshi; Oku, Yohei; Saitoh, Hidetoshi; Saito, Kimiaki; Ogawa, Eileen N; Ishizaka, Akitoshi; Kameyama, Kaori; Kubo, Atsushi

2009-10-01

To validate the feasibility of developing a radiotherapy unit with kilovoltage X-rays through actual irradiation of live rabbit lungs, and to explore the practical issues anticipated in future clinical application to humans through Monte Carlo dose simulation. A converging stereotactic irradiation unit was developed, consisting of a modified diagnostic computed tomography (CT) scanner. A tiny cylindrical volume in 13 normal rabbit lungs was individually irradiated with single fractional absorbed doses of 15, 30, 45, and 60 Gy. Observational CT scanning of the whole lung was performed every 2 weeks for 30 weeks after irradiation. After 30 weeks, histopathologic specimens of the lungs were examined. Dose distribution was simulated using the Monte Carlo method, and dose-volume histograms were calculated according to the data. A trial estimation of the effect of respiratory movement on dose distribution was made. A localized hypodense change and subsequent reticular opacity around the planning target volume (PTV) were observed in CT images of rabbit lungs. Dose-volume histograms of the PTVs and organs at risk showed a focused dose distribution to the target and sufficient dose lowering in the organs at risk. Our estimate of the dose distribution, taking respiratory movement into account, revealed dose reduction in the PTV. A converging stereotactic irradiation unit using kilovoltage X-rays was able to generate a focused radiobiologic reaction in rabbit lungs. Dose-volume histogram analysis and estimated sagittal dose distribution, considering respiratory movement, clarified the characteristics of the irradiation received from this type of unit.

Converging Stereotactic Radiotherapy Using Kilovoltage X-Rays: Experimental Irradiation of Normal Rabbit Lung and Dose-Volume Analysis With Monte Carlo Simulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kawase, Takatsugu; Kunieda, Etsuo; Deloar, Hossain M.; Tsunoo, Takanori; Seki, Satoshi; Oku, Yohei; Saitoh, Hidetoshi; Saito, Kimiaki; Ogawa, Eileen N.; Ishizaka, Akitoshi; Kameyama, Kaori; Kubo, Atsushi

2009-01-01

Purpose: To validate the feasibility of developing a radiotherapy unit with kilovoltage X-rays through actual irradiation of live rabbit lungs, and to explore the practical issues anticipated in future clinical application to humans through Monte Carlo dose simulation. Methods and Materials: A converging stereotactic irradiation unit was developed, consisting of a modified diagnostic computed tomography (CT) scanner. A tiny cylindrical volume in 13 normal rabbit lungs was individually irradiated with single fractional absorbed doses of 15, 30, 45, and 60 Gy. Observational CT scanning of the whole lung was performed every 2 weeks for 30 weeks after irradiation. After 30 weeks, histopathologic specimens of the lungs were examined. Dose distribution was simulated using the Monte Carlo method, and dose-volume histograms were calculated according to the data. A trial estimation of the effect of respiratory movement on dose distribution was made. Results: A localized hypodense change and subsequent reticular opacity around the planning target volume (PTV) were observed in CT images of rabbit lungs. Dose-volume histograms of the PTVs and organs at risk showed a focused dose distribution to the target and sufficient dose lowering in the organs at risk. Our estimate of the dose distribution, taking respiratory movement into account, revealed dose reduction in the PTV. Conclusions: A converging stereotactic irradiation unit using kilovoltage X-rays was able to generate a focused radiobiologic reaction in rabbit lungs. Dose-volume histogram analysis and estimated sagittal dose distribution, considering respiratory movement, clarified the characteristics of the irradiation received from this type of unit.

Reliability and validity of risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aven, Terje; Heide, Bjornar

2009-01-01

In this paper we investigate to what extent risk analysis meets the scientific quality requirements of reliability and validity. We distinguish between two types of approaches within risk analysis, relative frequency-based approaches and Bayesian approaches. The former category includes both traditional statistical inference methods and the so-called probability of frequency approach. Depending on the risk analysis approach, the aim of the analysis is different, the results are presented in different ways and consequently the meaning of the concepts reliability and validity are not the same.

Occlusal caries risk assessment using Cariogram analysis in student aged 11-12 years

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Riana Wardani

2017-03-01

Full Text Available ABSTRACT   Introduction: Basic Health Research 2013 showed Dental Caries Index in school age student in West Java was lower than the expected target, with occlusal surface as most affected part. The purpose of this study was to determine the risk status of dental caries in school age student by using cariogram analysis. Methods: Observational research. Study was conducted on 30 student aged 11-12 years with caries high risk on occlusal surfaces. Purposive sampling was taken from students of SDN Cikawari and SDN Mekarjaya Bandung Regency with high DMF-S index. Inclusion criteria: male and female, aged 11-12 years, good systemic health, SDN Mekarjaya and SDN Cikawari Bandung Regency students. Exclusion criteria: suffering from systemic disorder, currently in long-term antibiotic therapy, orthodontic appliance usage. Case history, eating habits and intake of fluoride, caries experience, salivary volume and buffering capacity of each sample was examined using cariogram examination method. Results: The cariogram analysis showed 43% chance of caries avoidance. Diet control was 23.3%, includes two factors: sugary foods and eating frequency. Bacteria control was 11.9% by evaluating both bacterial factors (the amount of plaque and the bacteria Streptococcus mutans. Vulnerability control was 14.4%, including caries prevention by the continuation of fluorine program and other conditions control that affect salivary secretions. Conclusion: Based on cariogram analysis found that all samples who had occlusal surfaces caries were at a high risk category, but still having moderate potential of avoiding new caries occurrence by controlling risk factors. Keywords: Cariogram analysis, Occlusal caries, Aged 11-12 years

Statistical representative elementary volumes of porous media determined using greyscale analysis of 3D tomograms

Science.gov (United States)

Bruns, S.; Stipp, S. L. S.; Sørensen, H. O.

2017-09-01

Digital rock physics carries the dogmatic concept of having to segment volume images for quantitative analysis but segmentation rejects huge amounts of signal information. Information that is essential for the analysis of difficult and marginally resolved samples, such as materials with very small features, is lost during segmentation. In X-ray nanotomography reconstructions of Hod chalk we observed partial volume voxels with an abundance that limits segmentation based analysis. Therefore, we investigated the suitability of greyscale analysis for establishing statistical representative elementary volumes (sREV) for the important petrophysical parameters of this type of chalk, namely porosity, specific surface area and diffusive tortuosity, by using volume images without segmenting the datasets. Instead, grey level intensities were transformed to a voxel level porosity estimate using a Gaussian mixture model. A simple model assumption was made that allowed formulating a two point correlation function for surface area estimates using Bayes' theory. The same assumption enables random walk simulations in the presence of severe partial volume effects. The established sREVs illustrate that in compacted chalk, these simulations cannot be performed in binary representations without increasing the resolution of the imaging system to a point where the spatial restrictions of the represented sample volume render the precision of the measurement unacceptable. We illustrate this by analyzing the origins of variance in the quantitative analysis of volume images, i.e. resolution dependence and intersample and intrasample variance. Although we cannot make any claims on the accuracy of the approach, eliminating the segmentation step from the analysis enables comparative studies with higher precision and repeatability.

Safety analysis, risk assessment, and risk acceptance criteria

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jamali, K.

1997-01-01

This paper discusses a number of topics that relate safety analysis as documented in the Department of Energy (DOE) safety analysis reports (SARs), probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) as characterized primarily in the context of the techniques that have assumed some level of formality in commercial nuclear power plant applications, and risk acceptance criteria as an outgrowth of PRA applications. DOE SARs of interest are those that are prepared for DOE facilities under DOE Order 5480.23 and the implementing guidance in DOE STD-3009-94. It must be noted that the primary area of application for DOE STD-3009 is existing DOE facilities and that certain modifications of the STD-3009 approach are necessary in SARs for new facilities. Moreover, it is the hazard analysis (HA) and accident analysis (AA) portions of these SARs that are relevant to the present discussions. Although PRAs can be qualitative in nature, PRA as used in this paper refers more generally to all quantitative risk assessments and their underlying methods. HA as used in this paper refers more generally to all qualitative risk assessments and their underlying methods that have been in use in hazardous facilities other than nuclear power plants. This discussion includes both quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methods. PRA has been used, improved, developed, and refined since the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) was published in 1975 by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Much debate has ensued since WASH-1400 on exactly what the role of PRA should be in plant design, reactor licensing, 'ensuring' plant and process safety, and a large number of other decisions that must be made for potentially hazardous activities. Of particular interest in this area is whether the risks quantified using PRA should be compared with numerical risk acceptance criteria (RACs) to determine whether a facility is 'safe.' Use of RACs requires quantitative estimates of consequence frequency and magnitude

Principal Component Analysis-Based Pattern Analysis of Dose-Volume Histograms and Influence on Rectal Toxicity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Soehn, Matthias; Alber, Markus; Yan Di

2007-01-01

Purpose: The variability of dose-volume histogram (DVH) shapes in a patient population can be quantified using principal component analysis (PCA). We applied this to rectal DVHs of prostate cancer patients and investigated the correlation of the PCA parameters with late bleeding. Methods and Materials: PCA was applied to the rectal wall DVHs of 262 patients, who had been treated with a four-field box, conformal adaptive radiotherapy technique. The correlated changes in the DVH pattern were revealed as 'eigenmodes,' which were ordered by their importance to represent data set variability. Each DVH is uniquely characterized by its principal components (PCs). The correlation of the first three PCs and chronic rectal bleeding of Grade 2 or greater was investigated with uni- and multivariate logistic regression analyses. Results: Rectal wall DVHs in four-field conformal RT can primarily be represented by the first two or three PCs, which describe ∼94% or 96% of the DVH shape variability, respectively. The first eigenmode models the total irradiated rectal volume; thus, PC1 correlates to the mean dose. Mode 2 describes the interpatient differences of the relative rectal volume in the two- or four-field overlap region. Mode 3 reveals correlations of volumes with intermediate doses (∼40-45 Gy) and volumes with doses >70 Gy; thus, PC3 is associated with the maximal dose. According to univariate logistic regression analysis, only PC2 correlated significantly with toxicity. However, multivariate logistic regression analysis with the first two or three PCs revealed an increased probability of bleeding for DVHs with more than one large PC. Conclusions: PCA can reveal the correlation structure of DVHs for a patient population as imposed by the treatment technique and provide information about its relationship to toxicity. It proves useful for augmenting normal tissue complication probability modeling approaches

User's guide for PRISIM (Plant Risk Status Information Management System) Arkansas Nuclear One--Unit 1: Volume 2, Program for regulators

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Campbell, D.J.; Guthrie, V.H.; Kirchner, J.R.; Kirkman, J.Q.; Paula, H.M.; Ellison, B.C.; Dycus, F.M.; Farquharson, J.A.; Flanagan, G.F.

1988-03-01

This user's guide is a two-volume document designed to teach NRC inspectors and NRC regulators how to access probabilistic risk assessment information from the two Plant Risk Status Information Management System (PRISIM) programs developed for Arkansas Nuclear One--Unit One (ANA-1). This document, Volume 2, describes how the PRA information available in Version 2.0 of PRISIM is useful as an evaluation tool for regulatory activities. Using PRISIM is useful as an evaluation tool for regulatory activities. Using PRISIM, regulators can both access PRA information and modify the information to assess the impact these changes may have on plant safety. Each volume is a stand-alone document.

Information Security Risk Analysis

CERN Document Server

Peltier, Thomas R

2010-01-01

Offers readers with the knowledge and the skill-set needed to achieve a highly effective risk analysis assessment. This title demonstrates how to identify threats and then determine if those threats pose a real risk. It is suitable for industry and academia professionals.

Small-Volume Injections: Evaluation of Volume Administration Deviation From Intended Injection Volumes.

Science.gov (United States)

Muffly, Matthew K; Chen, Michael I; Claure, Rebecca E; Drover, David R; Efron, Bradley; Fitch, William L; Hammer, Gregory B

2017-10-01

In the perioperative period, anesthesiologists and postanesthesia care unit (PACU) nurses routinely prepare and administer small-volume IV injections, yet the accuracy of delivered medication volumes in this setting has not been described. In this ex vivo study, we sought to characterize the degree to which small-volume injections (≤0.5 mL) deviated from the intended injection volumes among a group of pediatric anesthesiologists and pediatric postanesthesia care unit (PACU) nurses. We hypothesized that as the intended injection volumes decreased, the deviation from those intended injection volumes would increase. Ten attending pediatric anesthesiologists and 10 pediatric PACU nurses each performed a series of 10 injections into a simulated patient IV setup. Practitioners used separate 1-mL tuberculin syringes with removable 18-gauge needles (Becton-Dickinson & Company, Franklin Lakes, NJ) to aspirate 5 different volumes (0.025, 0.05, 0.1, 0.25, and 0.5 mL) of 0.25 mM Lucifer Yellow (LY) fluorescent dye constituted in saline (Sigma Aldrich, St. Louis, MO) from a rubber-stoppered vial. Each participant then injected the specified volume of LY fluorescent dye via a 3-way stopcock into IV tubing with free-flowing 0.9% sodium chloride (10 mL/min). The injected volume of LY fluorescent dye and 0.9% sodium chloride then drained into a collection vial for laboratory analysis. Microplate fluorescence wavelength detection (Infinite M1000; Tecan, Mannedorf, Switzerland) was used to measure the fluorescence of the collected fluid. Administered injection volumes were calculated based on the fluorescence of the collected fluid using a calibration curve of known LY volumes and associated fluorescence.To determine whether deviation of the administered volumes from the intended injection volumes increased at lower injection volumes, we compared the proportional injection volume error (loge [administered volume/intended volume]) for each of the 5 injection volumes using a linear

Progression in Running Intensity or Running Volume and the Development of Specific Injuries in Recreational Runners: Run Clever, a Randomized Trial Using Competing Risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Ramskov, Daniel; Rasmussen, Sten; Sørensen, Henrik; Parner, Erik Thorlund; Lind, Martin; Nielsen, Rasmus

2018-06-12

Study Design Randomized clinical trial, etiology. Background Training intensity and volume have been proposed to be associated with specific running-related injuries. If such an association exists, secondary preventive measures could be initiated by clinicians based on symptoms of a specific injury diagnosis. Objectives To test the following hypotheses: (i) A running schedule focusing on intensity will increase the risk of sustaining Achilles tendinopathy, gastrocnemius injuries and plantar fasciitis compared with hypothesized volume-related injuries. (ii) A running schedule focusing on running volume will increase the risk of sustaining patellofemoral pain syndrome, iliotibial band syndrome and patellar tendinopathy compared with hypothesized intensity-related injuries. Methods Healthy recreational runners were included in a 24-week follow-up, divided into 8-week preconditioning and 16-week specific focus-training. Participants were randomized to one of two running schedules: Schedule Intensity(Sch-I) or Schedule Volume(Sch-V). Sch-I progressed the amount of high intensity running (≥88% VO2max) each week. Sch-V progressed total weekly running volume. Global positioning system watch or smartphone collected data on running. Running-related injuries were diagnosed based on a clinical examination. Estimates were risk difference (RD) and 95%CI. Results Of 447 runners, a total of 80 sustained an injury (Sch-I n=36; Sch-V n=44). Risk of intensity injuries in Sch-I were: RD 2-weeks =-0.8%[-5.0;3.4]; RD 4-weeks =-0.8%[-6.7;5.1]; RD 8-weeks =-2.0%[-9.2;5.1]; RD 16-weeks =-5.1%[-16.5;6.3]. Risk of volume injuries in Sch-V were: RD 2-weeks =-0.9%[-5.0;3.2]; RD 4-weeks =-2.0%[-7.5;3.5]; RD 8-weeks =-3.2%[-9.1;2.7]; RD 16-weeks =-3.4%[-13.2;6.2]. Conclusion No difference in risk of hypothesized intensity and volume specific running-related injuries exist between running schedules focused on progression in either running intensity or volume. Level of Evidence Etiology, level 1

Bias in risk-benefit analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mazur, A.

1985-01-01

Risk-benefit analysis has become popular in the past decade as a means of improving decision making, especially in the area of technology policy. Here risk-benefit analysis is compared to other (equally defensible) approaches to decision making, showing how it favors some political interests more than others, and suggesting why it has recently come to the fore as a tool of political analysis. A considerable portion of the discussion concerns nuclear power. 6 references

Micro analysis of fringe field formed inside LDA measuring volume

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ghosh, Abhijit; Nirala, A K

2016-01-01

In the present study we propose a technique for micro analysis of fringe field formed inside laser Doppler anemometry (LDA) measuring volume. Detailed knowledge of the fringe field obtained by this technique allows beam quality, alignment and fringe uniformity to be evaluated with greater precision and may be helpful for selection of an appropriate optical element for LDA system operation. A complete characterization of fringes formed at the measurement volume using conventional, as well as holographic optical elements, is presented. Results indicate the qualitative, as well as quantitative, improvement of fringes formed at the measurement volume by holographic optical elements. Hence, use of holographic optical elements in LDA systems may be advantageous for improving accuracy in the measurement. (paper)

Sectional analysis for volume determination and selection of volume equations for the Tapajos Nacional Forest

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Renato Bezerra da Silva Ribeiro

2014-12-01

Full Text Available The aim of this study was to analyze different sections lengths for volume determination, fitting of volumetric models for timber production estimation in an area of forest management in the Tapajós National Forest (FNT. Six treatments for sectioning were tested in 152 logs of 12 commercial species. The obtained volumes were statistically compared by analysis of variance (ANOVA for the choice of the best method of sectioning and calculating the actual volume of 2,094 sample trees in different diameter commercial classes. Ten mathematical models were fitted to the whole data and to the species Manilkara huberi (Ducke Chevalier (maçaranduba Lecythis lurida (Miers Samori (jarana and Hymenaea courbaril L. (Jatobá. The criteria to choose the best model were adjusted coefficient of determination in percentage (R2adj%, standard error of estimate in percentage (Syx%, significance of the parameters, normality of residuals, Variance Inflation Factor (VIF and residuals graphic distribution. There was no statistical difference between the methods of sectioning and thus the total length of the logs was more operational in the field. The models in logarithmic form of Schumacher and Hall and Spurr were the best to estimate the volume for the species and for the whole sample set.

PATRAM '83: 7th international symposium on packaging and transportation of radioactive materials. Proceedings. Volume 1

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

None

1983-12-01

Volume 1 contains the papers from the following sessions: Plenary session; international regulations; fracture toughness of ferritic steels; monolithic cast iron casks; risk analysis techniques; storage in packagings; packaging design considerations; risk analysis; facility/transportation system interface; research and development programs; UF/sub 6/ packagings; national regulations; transportation operations and traffic; containment, seals, and leakage; and radiation risk experiences.

Health risks of energy technologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Travis, C.C.; Etnier, E.L.

1983-01-01

This volume examines occupational, public health, and environmental risks of the coal fuel cycle, the nuclear fuel cycle, and unconventional energy technologies. The 6 chapters explore in detail the relationship between energy economics and risk analysis, assess the problems of applying traditional cost-benefit analysis to long-term environmental problems (such as global carbon dioxide levels), and consider questions about the public's perception and acceptance of risk. Also included is an examination of the global risks associated with current and proposed levels of energy production and comsumption from all major sources. A separate abstract was prepared for each of the 6 chapters; all are included in Energy Abstracts for Policy Analysis (EAPA) and four in Energy Research Abstracts

Late rectal toxicity: dose-volume effects of conformal radiotherapy for prostate cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huang, Eugene H.; Pollack, Alan; Levy, Larry; Starkschall, George; Lei Dong; Rosen, Isaac; Kuban, Deborah A.

2002-01-01

Purpose: To identify dosimetric, anatomic, and clinical factors that correlate with late rectal toxicity after three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy (3D-CRT) for prostate cancer. Methods and Materials: We retrospectively analyzed the dose-volume histograms and clinical records of 163 Stage T1b-T3c prostate cancer patients treated between 1992 and 1999 with 3D-CRT, to a total isocenter dose of 74-78 Gy at The University of Texas M. D. Anderson Cancer Center. The median follow-up was 62 months (range 24-102). All late rectal complications were scored using modified Radiation Therapy Oncology Group and Late Effects Normal Tissue Task Force criteria. The 6-year toxicity rate was assessed using Kaplan-Meier analysis and the log-rank test. A univariate proportional hazards regression model was used to test the correlation between Grade 2 or higher toxicity and the dosimetric, anatomic, and clinical factors. In a multivariate regression model, clinical factors were added to the dosimetric and anatomic variables to determine whether they significantly altered the risk of developing late toxicity. Results: At 6 years, the rate of developing Grade 2 or higher late rectal toxicity was 25%. A significant volume effect was observed at rectal doses of 60, 70, 75.6, and 78 Gy, and the risk of developing rectal complications increased exponentially as greater volumes were irradiated. Although the percentage of rectal volume treated correlated significantly with the incidence of rectal complications at all dose levels (p 3 of the rectum. Of the clinical variables tested, only a history of hemorrhoids correlated with rectal toxicity (p=0.003). Multivariate analysis showed that the addition of hemorrhoids increased the risk of toxicity for each dosimetric variable found to be significant on univariate analysis (p<0.05 for all comparisons). Conclusion: Dose-volume histogram analyses clearly indicated a volume effect on the probability of developing late rectal complications

Gray matter volume and rapid decision-making in major depressive disorder.

Science.gov (United States)

Nakano, Masayuki; Matsuo, Koji; Nakashima, Mami; Matsubara, Toshio; Harada, Kenichiro; Egashira, Kazuteru; Masaki, Hiroaki; Takahashi, Kanji; Watanabe, Yoshifumi

2014-01-03

Reduced motivation and blunted decision-making are key features of major depressive disorder (MDD). Patients with MDD show abnormal decision-making when given negative feedback regarding a reward. The brain mechanisms underpinning this behavior remain unclear. In the present study, we examined the association between rapid decision-making with negative feedback and brain volume in MDD. Thirty-six patients with MDD and 54 age-, sex- and IQ-matched healthy subjects were studied. Subjects performed a rapid decision-making monetary task in which participants could make high- or low-risk choices. We compared between the 2 groups the probability that a high-risk choice followed negative feedback. In addition, we used voxel-based morphometry (VBM) to compare between group differences in gray matter volume, and the correlation between the probability for high-risk choices and brain volume. Compared to the healthy group, the MDD group showed significantly lower probabilities for high-risk choices following negative feedback. VBM analysis revealed that the MDD group had less gray matter volume in the right medial prefrontal cortex and orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) compared to the healthy group. The right OFC volume was negatively correlated with the probability that a high-risk choice followed negative feedback in patients with MDD. We did not observe these trends in healthy subjects. Patients with MDD show reduced motivation for monetary incentives when they were required to make rapid decisions following negative feedback. We observed a correlation between this reduced motivation and gray matter volume in the medial and ventral prefrontal cortex, which suggests that these brain regions are likely involved in the pathophysiology of aberrant decision-making in MDD. © 2013.

Left ventricular volume analysis as a basic tool to describe cardiac function.

Science.gov (United States)

Kerkhof, Peter L M; Kuznetsova, Tatiana; Ali, Rania; Handly, Neal

2018-03-01

The heart is often regarded as a compression pump. Therefore, determination of pressure and volume is essential for cardiac function analysis. Traditionally, ventricular performance was described in terms of the Starling curve, i.e., output related to input. This view is based on two variables (namely, stroke volume and end-diastolic volume), often studied in the isolated (i.e., denervated) heart, and has dominated the interpretation of cardiac mechanics over the last century. The ratio of the prevailing coordinates within that paradigm is termed ejection fraction (EF), which is the popular metric routinely used in the clinic. Here we present an insightful alternative approach while describing volume regulation by relating end-systolic volume (ESV) to end-diastolic volume. This route obviates the undesired use of metrics derived from differences or ratios, as employed in previous models. We illustrate basic principles concerning ventricular volume regulation by data obtained from intact animal experiments and collected in healthy humans. Special attention is given to sex-specific differences. The method can be applied to the dynamics of a single heart and to an ensemble of individuals. Group analysis allows for stratification regarding sex, age, medication, and additional clinically relevant covariates. A straightforward procedure derives the relationship between EF and ESV and describes myocardial oxygen consumption in terms of ESV. This representation enhances insight and reduces the impact of the metric EF, in favor of the end-systolic elastance concept advanced 4 decades ago.

Meta-Analysis of Ultrafiltration versus Diuretics Treatment Option for Overload Volume Reduction in Patients with Acute Decompensated Heart Failure.

Science.gov (United States)

Barkoudah, Ebrahim; Kodali, Sindhura; Okoroh, Juliet; Sethi, Rosh; Hulten, Edward; Suemoto, Claudia; Bittencourt, Marcio Sommer

2015-05-01

Although diuretics are mainly used for the treatment of acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF), inadequate responses and complications have led to the use of extracorporeal ultrafiltration (UF) as an alternative strategy for reducing volume overloads in patients with ADHF. The aim of our study is to perform meta-analysis of the results obtained from studies on extracorporeal venous ultrafiltration and compare them with those of standard diuretic treatment for overload volume reduction in acute decompensated heart failure. MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials databases were systematically searched using a pre‑specified criterion. Pooled estimates of outcomes after 48 h (weight change, serum creatinine level, and all-cause mortality) were computed using random effect models. Pooled weighted mean differences were calculated for weight loss and change in creatinine level, whereas a pooled risk ratio was used for the analysis of binary all-cause mortality outcome. A total of nine studies, involving 613 patients, met the eligibility criteria. The mean weight loss in patients who underwent UF therapy was 1.78 kg [95% Confidence Interval (CI): -2.65 to -0.91 kg; p diuretic therapy. The post-intervention creatinine level, however, was not significantly different (mean change = -0.25 mg/dL; 95% CI: -0.56 to 0.06 mg/dL; p = 0.112). The risk of all-cause mortality persisted in patients treated with UF compared with patients treated with standard diuretics (Pooled RR = 1.00; 95% CI: 0.64-1.56; p = 0.993). Compared with standard diuretic therapy, UF treatment for overload volume reduction in individuals suffering from ADHF, resulted in significant reduction of body weight within 48 h. However, no significant decrease of serum creatinine level or reduction of all-cause mortality was observed.

Risk management for outsourcing biomedical waste disposal - using the failure mode and effects analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Liao, Ching-Jong; Ho, Chao Chung

2014-07-01

Using the failure mode and effects analysis, this study examined biomedical waste companies through risk assessment. Moreover, it evaluated the supervisors of biomedical waste units in hospitals, and factors relating to the outsourcing risk assessment of biomedical waste in hospitals by referring to waste disposal acts. An expert questionnaire survey was conducted on the personnel involved in waste disposal units in hospitals, in order to identify important factors relating to the outsourcing risk of biomedical waste in hospitals. This study calculated the risk priority number (RPN) and selected items with an RPN value higher than 80 for improvement. These items included "availability of freezing devices", "availability of containers for sharp items", "disposal frequency", "disposal volume", "disposal method", "vehicles meeting the regulations", and "declaration of three lists". This study also aimed to identify important selection factors of biomedical waste disposal companies by hospitals in terms of risk. These findings can serve as references for hospitals in the selection of outsourcing companies for biomedical waste disposal. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Diversion Path Analysis handbook. Volume 3 (of 4 volumes). Computer Program 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schleter, J.C.

1978-11-01

The FORTRAN IV computer program, DPA Computer Program 1 (DPACP-1), is used to assemble and tabulate the data for Specific Diversion Paths (SDPs) identified when performing a Diversion Path Analysis (DPA) in accord with the methodology given in Volume 1. The program requires 255498 bytes exclusive of the operating system. The data assembled and tabulated by DPACP-1 are used by the DPA team to assist in analyzing vulnerabilities, in a plant's material control and material accounting subsystems, to diversion of special nuclear material (SNM) by a knowledgable insider. Based on this analysis, the DPA team can identify, and propose to plant management, modifications to the plant's safeguards system that would eliminate, or reduce the severity of, the identified vulnerabilities. The data are also used by plant supervision when investigating a potential diversion

Advances in probabilistic risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hardung von Hardung, H.

1982-01-01

Probabilistic risk analysis can now look back upon almost a quarter century of intensive development. The early studies, whose methods and results are still referred to occasionally, however, only permitted rough estimates to be made of the probabilities of recognizable accident scenarios, failing to provide a method which could have served as a reference base in calculating the overall risk associated with nuclear power plants. The first truly solid attempt was the Rasmussen Study and, partly based on it, the German Risk Study. In those studies, probabilistic risk analysis has been given a much more precise basis. However, new methodologies have been developed in the meantime, which allow much more informative risk studies to be carried out. They have been found to be valuable tools for management decisions with respect to backfitting, reinforcement and risk limitation. Today they are mainly applied by specialized private consultants and have already found widespread application especially in the USA. (orig.) [de

Evaluation of potential severe accidents during low power and shutdown operations at Surry, Unit 1: Analysis of core damage frequency from internal events during mid-loop operations. Appendix E (Sections E.9-E.16), Volume 2, Part 3B

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chu, T.L.; Musicki, Z.; Kohut, P.; Yang, J.; Bozoki, G.; Hsu, C.J.; Diamond, D.J.; Wong, S.M.; Bley, D.; Johnson, D.

1994-06-01

Traditionally, probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) of severe accidents in nuclear power plants have considered initiating events potentially occurring only during full power operation. Some previous screening analyses that were performed for other modes of operation suggested that risks during those modes were small relative to full power operation. However, more recent studies and operational experience have implied that accidents during low power and shutdown could be significant contributors to risk. Two plants, Surry (pressurized water reactor) and Grand Gulf (boiling water reactor), were selected as the plants to be studied. The objectives of the program are to assess the risks of severe accidents initiated during plant operational states other than full power operation and to compare the estimated core damage frequencies, important accident sequences and other qualitative and quantitative results with those accidents initiated during full power operation as assessed in NUREG-1150. The scope of the program includes that of a level-3 PRA. In phase 2, mid-loop operation was selected as the plant configuration to be analyzed based on the results of the phase 1 study. The objective of the phase 2 study is to perform a detailed analysis of the potential accident scenarios that may occur during mid-loop operation, and compare the results with those of NUREG-1150. The scope of the level-1 study includes plant damage state analysis, and uncertainty analysis. Volume 1 summarizes the results of the study. Internal events analysis is documented in Volume 2. It also contains an appendix that documents the part of the phase 1 study that has to do with POSs other than mid-loop operation. Internal fire and internal flood analyses are documented in Volumes 3 and 4. A separate study on seismic analysis, documented in Volume 5, was performed for the NRC by Future Resources Associates, Inc. Volume 6 documents the accident progression, source terms, and consequence analysis

Evaluation of potential severe accidents during low power and shutdown operations at Surry, Unit 1: Analysis of core damage frequency from internal events during mid-loop operations. Appendix E (Sections E.9-E.16), Volume 2, Part 3B

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chu, T.L.; Musicki, Z.; Kohut, P.; Yang, J.; Bozoki, G.; Hsu, C.J.; Diamond, D.J.; Wong, S.M. [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States); Bley, D.; Johnson, D. [PLG Inc., Newport Beach, CA (United States)] [and others

1994-06-01

Traditionally, probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) of severe accidents in nuclear power plants have considered initiating events potentially occurring only during full power operation. Some previous screening analyses that were performed for other modes of operation suggested that risks during those modes were small relative to full power operation. However, more recent studies and operational experience have implied that accidents during low power and shutdown could be significant contributors to risk. Two plants, Surry (pressurized water reactor) and Grand Gulf (boiling water reactor), were selected as the plants to be studied. The objectives of the program are to assess the risks of severe accidents initiated during plant operational states other than full power operation and to compare the estimated core damage frequencies, important accident sequences and other qualitative and quantitative results with those accidents initiated during full power operation as assessed in NUREG-1150. The scope of the program includes that of a level-3 PRA. In phase 2, mid-loop operation was selected as the plant configuration to be analyzed based on the results of the phase 1 study. The objective of the phase 2 study is to perform a detailed analysis of the potential accident scenarios that may occur during mid-loop operation, and compare the results with those of NUREG-1150. The scope of the level-1 study includes plant damage state analysis, and uncertainty analysis. Volume 1 summarizes the results of the study. Internal events analysis is documented in Volume 2. It also contains an appendix that documents the part of the phase 1 study that has to do with POSs other than mid-loop operation. Internal fire and internal flood analyses are documented in Volumes 3 and 4. A separate study on seismic analysis, documented in Volume 5, was performed for the NRC by Future Resources Associates, Inc. Volume 6 documents the accident progression, source terms, and consequence analysis.

WIPP fire hazards and risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1991-05-01

The purpose of this analysis was to conduct a fire hazards risk analysis of the Transuranic (TRU) contact-handled waste receipt, emplacement, and disposal activities at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). The technical bases and safety envelope for these operations are defined in the approved WIPP Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR). Although the safety documentation for the initial phase of the Test Program, the dry bin scale tests, has not yet been approved by the Department of Energy (DOE), reviews of the draft to date, including those by the Advisory Committee on Nuclear Facility Safety (ACNFS), have concluded that the dry bin scale tests present no significant risks in excess of those estimated in the approved WIPP FSAR. It is the opinion of the authors and reviewers of this analysis, based on sound engineering judgment and knowledge of the WIPP operations, that a Fire Hazards and Risk Analysis specific to the dry bin scale test program is not warranted prior to first waste receipt. This conclusion is further supported by the risk analysis presented in this document which demonstrates the level of risk to WIPP operations posed by fire to be extremely low. 15 refs., 41 figs., 48 tabs

Emergency department spirometric volume and base deficit delineate risk for torso injury in stable patients

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sipe Eilynn K

2004-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background We sought to determine torso injury rates and sensitivities associated with fluid-positive abdominal ultrasound, metabolic acidosis (increased base deficit and lactate, and impaired pulmonary physiology (decreased spirometric volume and PaO2/FiO2. Methods Level I trauma center prospective pilot and post-pilot study (2000–2001 of stable patients. Increased base deficit was 2.5 mmol/L in ethanol-negative and ≥ 3.0 mmol/L in ethanol-positive patients. Decreased PaO2/FiO2 was Results Of 215 patients, 66 (30.7% had a torso injury (abdominal/pelvic injury n = 35 and/or thoracic injury n = 43. Glasgow Coma Scale score was 14.8 ± 0.5 (13–15. Torso injury rates and sensitivities were: abdominal ultrasound negative and normal base deficit, lactate, PaO2/FiO2, and spirometric volume – 0.0% & 0.0%; normal base deficit and normal spirometric volume – 4.2% & 4.5%; chest/abdominal soft tissue injury – 37.8% & 47.0%; increased lactate – 39.7% & 47.0%; increased base deficit – 41.3% & 75.8%; increased base deficit and/or decreased spirometric volume – 43.8% & 95.5%; decreased PaO2/FiO2 – 48.9% & 33.3%; positive abdominal ultrasound – 62.5% & 7.6%; decreased spirometric volume – 73.4% & 71.2%; increased base deficit and decreased spirometric volume – 82.9% & 51.5%. Conclusions Trauma patients with normal base deficit and spirometric volume are unlikely to have a torso injury. Patients with increased base deficit or lactate, decreased spirometric volume, decreased PaO2/FiO2, or positive FAST have substantial risk for torso injury. Increased base deficit and/or decreased spirometric volume are highly sensitive for torso injury. Base deficit and spirometric volume values are readily available and increase or decrease the suspicion for torso injury.

A prospective three-dimensional analysis about the impact of differences in the clinical target volume in prostate cancer irradiation on normal-tissue exposure. A potential for increasing the benefit/risk ratio

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hille, A.; Toews, N.; Schmidberger, H.; Hess, C.F.

2005-01-01

Background and purpose: rectal toxicity following external-beam irradiation of prostate cancer correlates with the exposed percentage of rectal volume. Recently, it has been recommended to reduce the volume of the seminal vesicles that should be included in the clinical target volume (CTV). The purpose of this study was to quantitatively assess the impact of this CTV reduction on the expected rectal and bladder dose sparing. Patients and methods: 14 patients with localized prostate cancer undergoing external-beam radiotherapy were investigated. The prostate, the prostate + entire seminal vesicles, or the prostate + proximal seminal vesicles were delineated as CTV. Treatment plans were generated and compared concerning rectum and bladder dose-volume histograms (DVHs). Results: the exposure of rectum and bladder volume was significantly lower in case of irradiation of the prostate only compared to inclusion of the proximal or entire seminal vesicles into the CTV. The reduction of the CTV from prostate + entire seminal vesicles to prostate + proximal seminal vesicles led to a significant reduction of the rectal and bladder dose exposure. Conclusion: reduction of the CTV to the prostate only, or to the prostate + proximal seminal vesicles led to significant rectal and bladder dose sparing compared to irradiation of the prostate + entire seminal vesicles. In patients with a higher risk for seminal vesicles involvement, irradiation of the prostate + proximal seminal vesicles should be preferred. In case of a need for irradiation of the entire seminal vesicles, patients should be informed about a higher risk for chronic rectal toxicity and, possibly, for bladder complications. (orig.)

Analysis of the high water wave volume for the Sava River near Zagreb

Science.gov (United States)

Trninic, Dusan

2010-05-01

The paper analyses volumes of the Sava River high water waves near Zagreb during the period: 1926-2008 (N = 83 years), which is needed for more efficient control of high and flood waters. The primary Sava flood control structures in the City of Zagreb are dikes built on both riverbanks, and the Odra Relief Canal with lateral spillway upstream from the City of Zagreb. Intensive morphological changes in the greater Sava area near Zagreb, and anthropological and climate variations and changes at the Sava catchment up to the Zagreb area require detailed analysis of the water wave characteristics. In one analysis, maximum annual volumes are calculated for high water waves with constant duration of: 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 and 60 days. Such calculations encompass total quantity of water (basic and surface runoff). The log Pearson III distribution is adapted for this series of maximum annual volumes. Based on the results obtained, the interrelations are established between the wave volume as function of duration and occurrence probability. In addition to the analysis of maximum volumes of constant duration, it is interesting to carry out the analyses of maximum volume in excess of the reference discharge since it is very important for the flood control. To determine the reference discharges, a discharge of specific duration is used from an average discharge duration curve. The adopted reference discharges have durations of 50, 40, 30, 20 and 10%. Like in the previous case, log Pearson III distribution is adapted to the maximum wave data series. For reference discharge Q = 604 m3/s (duration 10%), a linear trend is calculated of maximum annual volumes exceeding the reference discharge for the Sava near Zagreb during the analyzed period. The analysis results show a significant decrease trend. A similar analysis is carried out for the following three reference discharges: regular flood control measures at the Sava near Zagreb, which are proclaimed when the water level is 350 cm

Validated Alzheimer's Disease Risk Index (ANU-ADRI) is associated with smaller volumes in the default mode network in the early 60s.

Science.gov (United States)

Cherbuin, Nicolas; Shaw, Marnie E; Walsh, Erin; Sachdev, Perminder; Anstey, Kaarin J

2017-12-14

Strong evidence is available suggesting that effective reduction of exposure to demonstrated modifiable risk factors in mid-life or before could significantly decrease the incidence of Alzheimer's disease (AD) and delay its onset. A key ingredient to achieving this goal is the reliable identification of individuals at risk well before they develop clinical symptoms. The aim of this study was to provide further neuroimaging evidence of the effectiveness of a validated tool, the ANU Alzheimer's Disease Risk Index, for the assessment of future risk of cognitive decline. Participants were 461 (60-64 years, 48% female) community-living individuals free of dementia at baseline. Associations between risk estimates obtained with the ANU-ADRI, total and regional brain volumes including in the default mode network (DMN) measured at the same assessment and diagnosis of MCI/dementia over a 12-year follow-up were tested in a large sample of community-living individuals free of dementia at baseline. Higher risk estimates on the ANU-ADRI were associated with lower cortical gray matter and particularly in the DMN. Importantly, difference in participants with high and low risk scores explained 7-9% of the observed difference in gray matter volume. In this sample, every one additional risk point on the ANU-ADRI was associated with an 8% increased risk of developing MCI/dementia over a 12-year follow-up and this association was partly mediated by a sub-region of the DMN. Risk of cognitive decline assessed with a validated instrument is associated with gray matter volume, particularly in the DMN, a region known to be implicated in the pathological process of the disease.

Risk Characterization uncertainties associated description, sensitivity analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carrillo, M.; Tovar, M.; Alvarez, J.; Arraez, M.; Hordziejewicz, I.; Loreto, I.

2013-01-01

The power point presentation is about risks to the estimated levels of exposure, uncertainty and variability in the analysis, sensitivity analysis, risks from exposure to multiple substances, formulation of guidelines for carcinogenic and genotoxic compounds and risk subpopulations

Advances in Risk Analysis with Big Data.

Science.gov (United States)

Choi, Tsan-Ming; Lambert, James H

2017-08-01

With cloud computing, Internet-of-things, wireless sensors, social media, fast storage and retrieval, etc., organizations and enterprises have access to unprecedented amounts and varieties of data. Current risk analysis methodology and applications are experiencing related advances and breakthroughs. For example, highway operations data are readily available, and making use of them reduces risks of traffic crashes and travel delays. Massive data of financial and enterprise systems support decision making under risk by individuals, industries, regulators, etc. In this introductory article, we first discuss the meaning of big data for risk analysis. We then examine recent advances in risk analysis with big data in several topic areas. For each area, we identify and introduce the relevant articles that are featured in the special issue. We conclude with a discussion on future research opportunities. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Overcoming barriers to integrating economic analysis into risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Hoffmann, Sandra

2011-09-01

Regulatory risk analysis is designed to provide decisionmakers with a clearer understanding of how policies are likely to affect risk. The systems that produce risk are biological, physical, and social and economic. As a result, risk analysis is an inherently interdisciplinary task. Yet in practice, risk analysis has been interdisciplinary in only limited ways. Risk analysis could provide more accurate assessments of risk if there were better integration of economics and other social sciences into risk assessment itself. This essay examines how discussions about risk analysis policy have influenced the roles of various disciplines in risk analysis. It explores ways in which integrated bio/physical-economic modeling could contribute to more accurate assessments of risk. It reviews examples of the kind of integrated economics-bio/physical modeling that could be used to enhance risk assessment. The essay ends with a discussion of institutional barriers to greater integration of economic modeling into risk assessment and provides suggestions on how these might be overcome. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Maritime transportation risk analysis: Review and analysis in light of some foundational issues

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goerlandt, Floris; Montewka, Jakub

2015-01-01

Many methods and applications for maritime transportation risk analysis have been presented in the literature. In parallel, there is a recent focus on foundational issues in risk analysis, with calls for intensified research on fundamental concepts and principles underlying the scientific field. This paper presents a review and analysis of risk definitions, perspectives and scientific approaches to risk analysis found in the maritime transportation application area, focusing on applications addressing accidental risk of shipping in a sea area. For this purpose, a classification of risk definitions, an overview of elements in risk perspectives and a classification of approaches to risk analysis science are applied. Results reveal that in the application area, risk is strongly tied to probability, both in definitions and perspectives, while alternative views exist. A diffuse situation is also found concerning the scientific approach to risk analysis, with realist, proceduralist and constructivist foundations co-existing. Realist approaches dominate the application area. Very few applications systematically account for uncertainty, neither concerning the evidence base nor in relation to the limitations of the risk model in relation to the space of possible outcomes. Some suggestions are made to improve the current situation, aiming to strengthen the scientific basis for risk analysis. - Highlights: • Risk analyses in maritime transportation analysed in light of foundational issues. • Focus on definitions, perspectives and scientific approaches to risk analysis. • Probability-based definitions and realist approaches dominate the field. • Findings support calls for increased focus on foundational issues in risk research. • Some suggestions are made to improve the current situation

STOCHASTIC METHODS IN RISK ANALYSIS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vladimíra OSADSKÁ

2017-06-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we review basic stochastic methods which can be used to extend state-of-the-art deterministic analytical methods for risk analysis. We can conclude that the standard deterministic analytical methods highly depend on the practical experience and knowledge of the evaluator and therefore, the stochastic methods should be introduced. The new risk analysis methods should consider the uncertainties in input values. We present how large is the impact on the results of the analysis solving practical example of FMECA with uncertainties modelled using Monte Carlo sampling.

Risk Analysis of Telecom Enterprise Financing

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

YU Hua; SHU Hua-ying

2005-01-01

The main research objects in this paper are the causes searching and risk estimating method for telecom enterprises' financial risks. The multi-mode financing for telecom enterprises makes it flexible to induce the capital and obtain the profit by corresponding projects. But there are also potential risks going with these financing modes. After making analysis of categories and causes of telecom enterprises' financing risk, a method by Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is put forward to estimating the financing risk. And the author makes her suggestion and opinion by example analysis, in order to provide some ideas and basis for telecom enterprise's financing decision-making.

Hydrothermal analysis in engineering using control volume finite element method

CERN Document Server

Sheikholeslami, Mohsen

2015-01-01

Control volume finite element methods (CVFEM) bridge the gap between finite difference and finite element methods, using the advantages of both methods for simulation of multi-physics problems in complex geometries. In Hydrothermal Analysis in Engineering Using Control Volume Finite Element Method, CVFEM is covered in detail and applied to key areas of thermal engineering. Examples, exercises, and extensive references are used to show the use of the technique to model key engineering problems such as heat transfer in nanofluids (to enhance performance and compactness of energy systems),

SLUDGE TREATMENT PROJECT ALTERNATIVES ANALYSIS SUMMARY REPORT (VOLUME 1)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fredrickson, J.R.; Rourk, R.J.; Honeyman, J.O.; Johnson, M.E.; Raymond, R.E.

2009-01-01

Highly radioactive sludge (containing up to 300,000 curies of actinides and fission products) resulting from the storage of degraded spent nuclear fuel is currently stored in temporary containers located in the 105-K West storage basin near the Columbia River. The background, history, and known characteristics of this sludge are discussed in Section 2 of this report. There are many compelling reasons to remove this sludge from the K-Basin. These reasons are discussed in detail in Section1, and they include the following: (1) Reduce the risk to the public (from a potential release of highly radioactive material as fine respirable particles by airborne or waterborn pathways); (2) Reduce the risk overall to the Hanford worker; and (3) Reduce the risk to the environment (the K-Basin is situated above a hazardous chemical contaminant plume and hinders remediation of the plume until the sludge is removed). The DOE-RL has stated that a key DOE objective is to remove the sludge from the K-West Basin and River Corridor as soon as possible, which will reduce risks to the environment, allow for remediation of contaminated areas underlying the basins, and support closure of the 100-KR-4 operable unit. The environmental and nuclear safety risks associated with this sludge have resulted in multiple legal and regulatory remedial action decisions, plans,and commitments that are summarized in Table ES-1 and discussed in more detail in Volume 2, Section 9

SLUDGE TREATMENT PROJECT ALTERNATIVES ANALYSIS SUMMARY REPORT [VOLUME 1

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

FREDERICKSON JR; ROURK RJ; HONEYMAN JO; JOHNSON ME; RAYMOND RE

2009-01-19

Highly radioactive sludge (containing up to 300,000 curies of actinides and fission products) resulting from the storage of degraded spent nuclear fuel is currently stored in temporary containers located in the 105-K West storage basin near the Columbia River. The background, history, and known characteristics of this sludge are discussed in Section 2 of this report. There are many compelling reasons to remove this sludge from the K-Basin. These reasons are discussed in detail in Section1, and they include the following: (1) Reduce the risk to the public (from a potential release of highly radioactive material as fine respirable particles by airborne or waterborn pathways); (2) Reduce the risk overall to the Hanford worker; and (3) Reduce the risk to the environment (the K-Basin is situated above a hazardous chemical contaminant plume and hinders remediation of the plume until the sludge is removed). The DOE-RL has stated that a key DOE objective is to remove the sludge from the K-West Basin and River Corridor as soon as possible, which will reduce risks to the environment, allow for remediation of contaminated areas underlying the basins, and support closure of the 100-KR-4 operable unit. The environmental and nuclear safety risks associated with this sludge have resulted in multiple legal and regulatory remedial action decisions, plans,and commitments that are summarized in Table ES-1 and discussed in more detail in Volume 2, Section 9.

Probabilistic risk analysis for nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hauptmanns, U.

1988-01-01

Risk analysis is applied if the calculation of risk from observed failures is not possible, because events contributing substantially to risk are too seldom, as in the case of nuclear reactors. The process of analysis provides a number of benefits. Some of them are listed. After this by no means complete enumeration of possible benefits to be derived from a risk analysis. An outline of risk studiesd for PWR's with some comments on the models used are given. The presentation is indebted to the detailed treatment of the subject given in the PRA Procedures Guide. Thereafter some results of the German Risk Study, Phase B, which is under way are communicated. The paper concludes with some remarks on probabilistic considerations in licensing procedures. (orig./DG)

Relationship Between the Risk of Suffering a First-Time Noncontact ACL Injury and Geometry of the Femoral Notch and ACL: A Prospective Cohort Study With a Nested Case-Control Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Whitney, Darryl C; Sturnick, Daniel R; Vacek, Pamela M; DeSarno, Mike J; Gardner-Morse, Mack; Tourville, Timothy W; Smith, Helen C; Slauterbeck, James R; Johnson, Robert J; Shultz, Sandra J; Hashemi, Javad; Beynnon, Bruce D

2014-08-01

The morphometric characteristics of the anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) and the femoral intercondylar notch within which it resides have been implicated as risk factors for injuries to this important stabilizer of the knee. Prior research has produced equivocal results with differing methodologies, and consequently, it is unclear how these characteristics affect the injury risk in male and female patients. The morphometric characteristics of the ACL and femoral intercondylar notch are individually and independently associated with the risk of suffering a noncontact ACL injury, and these relationships are different in male and female patients. Case-control study; Level of evidence, 3. Magnetic resonance imaging scans of the bilateral knees were obtained on 88 case-control pairs (27 male, 61 female) matched for age, sex, and participation on the same sports team. Patients had suffered a grade III, first-time, noncontact ACL tear. The femoral notch width at 4 locations, the thickness of the bony ridge at the anteromedial outlet of the femoral notch, the femoral notch volume, ACL volume, and ACL cross-sectional area were measured. Multivariate analysis of combined data from male and female patients revealed that decreased ACL volume (odds ratio [OR], 0.829), decreased femoral notch width (OR, 0.700), and increased bony ridge thickness at the anteromedial outlet of the femoral notch (OR, 1.614) were significant independent predictors of an ACL injury. Separate analyses of male and female patients indicated that the femoral notch ridge may be more strongly associated with a risk in female patients, while ACL volume is more strongly associated with a risk in male patients. However, statistical analysis performed with an adjustment for body weight strengthened the association between ACL volume and the risk of injuries in female patients. Morphometric features of both the ACL and femoral notch combine to influence the risk of suffering a noncontact ACL injury. When

Single-shell tank interim stabilization risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Basche, A.D.

1998-01-01

The purpose of the Single-Shell Tank (SST) Interim Stabilization Risk Analysis is to provide a cost and schedule risk analysis of HNF-2358, Rev. 1, Single-Shell Tank Interim Stabilization Project Plan (Project Plan) (Ross et al. 1998). The analysis compares the required cost profile by fiscal year (Section 4.2) and revised schedule completion date (Section 4.5) to the Project Plan. The analysis also evaluates the executability of the Project Plan and recommends a path forward for risk mitigation

Computing risk for oil prospects: principles and programs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harbaugh, J.W.; Davis, J.C.; Wendebourg, J.

1995-01-01

This volume in the series Computer Methods in the Geosciences examines the challenge of risk assessment, field size distributions, and success, sequence and gambler's ruin. The estimation of the discovery size from the prospect size, outcome probabilities and success ratios, modeling prospects, and mapping properties and uncertainties are reviewed, and discriminating discoveries and dry holes, forecasting cash flow for a prospect, the worth of money, and use of risk analysis tables, decision tables and trees are considered. Appendices cover the installation of the RISK program and user manuals, and two disks are included with the volume. (UK)

Multiple Sclerosis Increases Fracture Risk: A Meta-Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Guixian Dong

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Purpose. The association between multiple sclerosis (MS and fracture risk has been reported, but results of previous studies remain controversial and ambiguous. To assess the association between MS and fracture risk, a meta-analysis was performed. Method. Based on comprehensive searches of the PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science, we identified outcome data from all articles estimating the association between MS and fracture risk. The pooled risk ratios (RRs with 95% confidence intervals (CIs were calculated. Results. A significant association between MS and fracture risk was found. This result remained statistically significant when the adjusted RRs were combined. Subgroup analysis stratified by the site of fracture suggested significant associations between MS and tibia fracture risk, femur fracture risk, hip fracture risk, pelvis fracture risk, vertebrae fracture risk, and humerus fracture risk. In the subgroup analysis by gender, female MS patients had increased fracture risk. When stratified by history of drug use, use of antidepressants, hypnotics/anxiolytics, anticonvulsants, and glucocorticoids increased the risk of fracture risk in MS patients. Conclusions. This meta-analysis demonstrated that MS was significantly associated with fracture risk.

Gray and white matter volume abnormalities in monozygotic and same-gender dizygotic twins discordant for schizophrenia

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hilshoff, Hilleke E.; Brans, Rachel G. H.; van Haren, Neeltje E. M.

2004-01-01

BACKGROUND: Whole brain tissue volume decreases in schizophrenia have been related to both genetic risk factors and disease-related (possibly nongenetic) factors; however, whether genetic and environmental risk factors in the brains of patients with schizophrenia are differentially reflected...... in gray or white matter volume change is not known. METHODS: Magnetic resonance imaging (1.5 T) brain scans of 11 monozygotic and 11 same-gender dizygotic twin pairs discordant for schizophrenia were acquired and compared with 11 monozygotic and 11 same-gender dizygotic healthy control twin pairs. RESULTS......: Repeated-measures volume analysis of covariance revealed decreased whole brain volume in the patients with schizophrenia as compared with their co-twins and with healthy twin pairs. Decreased white matter volume was found in discordant twin pairs compared with healthy twin pairs, particularly...

Training volume and body composition as risk factors for developing jumper's knee among young elite volleyball players.

Science.gov (United States)

Visnes, H; Bahr, R

2013-10-01

Training volume and body composition have been suggested as risk factors for jumper's knee among athletic youth, but research is lacking. The aim of this 4-year prospective cohort study was to examine the relationship between training and competition load, body composition, and risk for developing jumper's knee. Participants are elite volleyball players, aged 16-18 years. Training and competition load was recorded continuously and body composition semiannually. Jumper's knee was diagnosed on a standardized clinical examination. We recruited 141 healthy students (69 males and 72 females), and 28 developed jumper's knee (22 boys and six girls). In a multivariate analyses, boys had three to four times higher risk compared with girls. Volleyball training had an odds ratio (OR) 1.72 (1.18-2.53) for every extra hour trained, and match exposure was the strongest sports-related predictor for developing jumper's knee with an OR of 3.88 (1.80-8.40) for every extra set played per week. We did not detect any significant differences between the groups in body composition at the time of inclusion or in the change of body composition during the study period. Conclusion, male gender, a high volume of volleyball training and match exposure were risk factors for developing jumper's knee. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Statistical analysis of rockfall volume distributions: Implications for rockfall dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Dussauge, Carine; Grasso, Jean-Robert; Helmstetter, AgnèS.

2003-06-01

We analyze the volume distribution of natural rockfalls on different geological settings (i.e., calcareous cliffs in the French Alps, Grenoble area, and granite Yosemite cliffs, California Sierra) and different volume ranges (i.e., regional and worldwide catalogs). Contrary to previous studies that included several types of landslides, we restrict our analysis to rockfall sources which originated on subvertical cliffs. For the three data sets, we find that the rockfall volumes follow a power law distribution with a similar exponent value, within error bars. This power law distribution was also proposed for rockfall volumes that occurred along road cuts. All these results argue for a recurrent power law distribution of rockfall volumes on subvertical cliffs, for a large range of rockfall sizes (102-1010 m3), regardless of the geological settings and of the preexisting geometry of fracture patterns that are drastically different on the three studied areas. The power law distribution for rockfall volumes could emerge from two types of processes. First, the observed power law distribution of rockfall volumes is similar to the one reported for both fragmentation experiments and fragmentation models. This argues for the geometry of rock mass fragment sizes to possibly control the rockfall volumes. This way neither cascade nor avalanche processes would influence the rockfall volume distribution. Second, without any requirement of scale-invariant quenched heterogeneity patterns, the rock mass dynamics can arise from avalanche processes driven by fluctuations of the rock mass properties, e.g., cohesion or friction angle. This model may also explain the power law distribution reported for landslides involving unconsolidated materials. We find that the exponent values of rockfall volume on subvertical cliffs, 0.5 ± 0.2, is significantly smaller than the 1.2 ± 0.3 value reported for mixed landslide types. This change of exponents can be driven by the material strength, which

Supplemental results of the human health risk analysis for the U.S. Department of Energy draft waste management programmatic environmental impact statement

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-08-01

This report is intended as an information supplement to the human health risk analysis performed for the US Department of Energy's Draft Waste Management Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement for Managing Treatment, Storage, and Disposal of Radioactive and Hazardous Waste, hereinafter called the PEIS. This report provides the installation-by-installation human health risk analysis results from which the risk estimate summaries for the PEIS were drawn. Readers should bear in mind that the risk estimates presented here are the result of a program-wide (as opposed to site-specific) study. They are based on best available data; systematically applied assumptions; and professional judgment about DOE waste inventories, waste volumes generated annually, currently available treatment and disposal technologies, technical limitations of treatment, and facility capacities across the numerous installations in the DOE complex

Relationship between Plasma D-Dimer Concentration and Three-Dimensional Ultrasound Placental Volume in Women at Risk for Placental Vascular Diseases: A Monocentric Prospective Study.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cécile Fanget

Full Text Available The aim of this study was to correlate placental volumes deduced from three-dimensional ultrasound and virtual organ computer-aided analysis (VOCAL software with systemic concentrations of D-dimer and soluble endothelial protein C receptor (sEPCR.This was a monocentric experimental prospective study conducted from October 2008 to July 2009. Forty consecutive patients at risk of placental vascular pathology (PVP recurrence or occurrence were included. Placental volumes were systematically measured three times (11-14, 16-18 and 20-22 weeks of gestation (WG by two independent sonographers. D-dimers and sEPCR plasma concentrations were measured using ELISA kits (Enzyme Linked ImmunoSorbent Assay.Eleven patients had a PVP. The plasma D-dimer level was positively correlated with placental volume (r = 0.45, p < 0.001. A smaller placental volume and placental quotient was evidenced in women who developed a PVP at the three gestational ages, and the difference was more pronounced during the third exam (20 WG. No obvious correlation could be demonstrated between the development of a PVP and the levels of D-dimer and sEPCR. There was no significant difference in the values of placental volumes measured by the two sonographers.The placenta growth could be a major determinant of the elevation of D-dimer during pregnancy. Consideration of placental volume could allow for modulation of the D-dimer concentrations for restoring their clinical interest.

PRT Impact Study Pre-PRT Phase : Volume 1. Travel Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

1976-03-01

Part of a three-volume work, this report describes the analysis performed on travel data collected for the Pre-PRT Impact Study. The data analyzed consist of travel behavior, travel patterns, model utilization and travel costs of various modes of tra...

The application of volume-outcome contouring in data warehousing.

Science.gov (United States)

Studnicki, James; Berndt, Donald J; Luther, Stephen L; Fisher, John W

2004-01-01

Despite a compelling body of published research on the nature of provider volume and clinical outcomes, healthcare executives and policymakers have not managed to develop and implement systems that are useful in directing patients to higher volume providers via selective referral or avoidance. A specialized data warehouse application, utilizing hospital discharge data linked to physician biographical information, allows detailed analysis of physician and hospital volume and the resulting pattern (contour) of related outcomes such as mortality, complications, and medical errors. The approach utilizes a historical repository of hospital discharge data in which the outcomes of interest, important patient characteristics and risk factors used in severity-adjusting of the outcomes are derived from the coding structure of the data.

Analysis of the chemical equilibrium of combustion at constant volume

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marius BREBENEL

2014-04-01

Full Text Available Determining the composition of a mixture of combustion gases at a given temperature is based on chemical equilibrium, when the equilibrium constants are calculated on the assumption of constant pressure and temperature. In this paper, an analysis of changes occurring when combustion takes place at constant volume is presented, deriving a specific formula of the equilibrium constant. The simple reaction of carbon combustion in pure oxygen in both cases (constant pressure and constant volume is next considered as example of application, observing the changes occurring in the composition of the combustion gases depending on temperature.

Left ventricular pressure and volume data acquisition and analysis using LabVIEW.

Science.gov (United States)

Cassidy, S C; Teitel, D F

1997-03-01

To automate analysis of left ventricular pressure-volume data, we used LabVIEW to create applications that digitize and display data recorded from conductance and manometric catheters. Applications separate data into cardiac cycles, calculate parallel conductance, and calculate indices of left ventricular function, including end-systolic elastance, preload-recruitable stroke work, stroke volume, ejection fraction, stroke work, maximum and minimum derivative of ventricular pressure, heart rate, indices of relaxation, peak filling rate, and ventricular chamber stiffness. Pressure-volume loops can be graphically displayed. These analyses are exported to a text-file. These applications have simplified and automated the process of evaluating ventricular function.

38 CFR 75.115 - Risk analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Risk analysis. 75.115 Section 75.115 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS (CONTINUED) INFORMATION SECURITY MATTERS Data Breaches § 75.115 Risk analysis. If a data breach involving sensitive personal information that is processed or...

Peripheral i.v. analysis (PIVA) of venous waveforms for volume assessment in patients undergoing haemodialysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Hocking, K M; Alvis, B D; Baudenbacher, F; Boyer, R; Brophy, C M; Beer, I; Eagle, S

2017-12-01

The assessment of intravascular volume status remains a challenge for clinicians. Peripheral i.v. analysis (PIVA) is a method for analysing the peripheral venous waveform that has been used to monitor volume status. We present a proof-of-concept study for evaluating the efficacy of PIVA in detecting changes in fluid volume. We enrolled 37 hospitalized patients undergoing haemodialysis (HD) as a controlled model for intravascular volume loss. Respiratory rate (F0) and pulse rate (F1) frequencies were measured. PIVA signal was obtained by fast Fourier analysis of the venous waveform followed by weighing the magnitude of the amplitude of the pulse rate frequency. PIVA was compared with peripheral venous pressure and standard monitoring of vital signs. Regression analysis showed a linear correlation between volume loss and change in the PIVA signal (R2=0.77). Receiver operator curves demonstrated that the PIVA signal showed an area under the curve of 0.89 for detection of 20 ml kg-1 change in volume. There was no correlation between volume loss and peripheral venous pressure, blood pressure or pulse rate. PIVA-derived pulse rate and respiratory rate were consistent with similar numbers derived from the bio-impedance and electrical signals from the electrocardiogram. PIVA is a minimally invasive, novel modality for detecting changes in fluid volume status, respiratory rate and pulse rate in spontaneously breathing patients with peripheral i.v. cannulas. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Journal of Anaesthesia. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

Common approach of risks analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Noviello, L.; Naviglio, A.

1996-01-01

Although, following the resolutions of the High German Court, the protection level of the human beings is an objective which can change in time, it is obvious that it is an important point when there is a risk for the population. This is true more particularly for the industrial plants whose possible accidents could affect the population. The accidents risk analysis indicates that there is no conceptual difference between the risks of a nuclear power plant and those of the other industrial plants as chemical plants, the gas distribution system and the hydraulic dams. A legislation analysis induced by the Seveso Directive for the industrial risks give some important indications which should always be followed. This work analyses more particularly the legislative situation in different European countries and identifies some of the most important characteristics. Indeed, for most of the countries, the situation is different and it is a later difficulties source for nuclear power plants. In order to strengthen this reasoning, this paper presents some preliminary results of an analysis of a nuclear power plant following the approach of other industrial plants. In conclusion, it will be necessary to analyse again the risks assessment approach for nuclear power plants because the real protection level of human beings in a country is determined by the less regulated of the dangerous industrial plants existing at the surroundings. (O.M.)

NASA System Safety Handbook. Volume 2: System Safety Concepts, Guidelines, and Implementation Examples

Science.gov (United States)

Dezfuli, Homayoon; Benjamin, Allan; Everett, Christopher; Feather, Martin; Rutledge, Peter; Sen, Dev; Youngblood, Robert

2015-01-01

This is the second of two volumes that collectively comprise the NASA System Safety Handbook. Volume 1 (NASASP-210-580) was prepared for the purpose of presenting the overall framework for System Safety and for providing the general concepts needed to implement the framework. Volume 2 provides guidance for implementing these concepts as an integral part of systems engineering and risk management. This guidance addresses the following functional areas: 1.The development of objectives that collectively define adequate safety for a system, and the safety requirements derived from these objectives that are levied on the system. 2.The conduct of system safety activities, performed to meet the safety requirements, with specific emphasis on the conduct of integrated safety analysis (ISA) as a fundamental means by which systems engineering and risk management decisions are risk-informed. 3.The development of a risk-informed safety case (RISC) at major milestone reviews to argue that the systems safety objectives are satisfied (and therefore that the system is adequately safe). 4.The evaluation of the RISC (including supporting evidence) using a defined set of evaluation criteria, to assess the veracity of the claims made therein in order to support risk acceptance decisions.

Standardised risk analysis as a communication tool

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pluess, Ch.; Montanarini, M.; Bernauer, M.

1998-01-01

Full text of publication follows: several European countries require a risk analysis for the production, storage or transport a dangerous goods. This requirement imposes considerable administrative effort for some sectors of the industry. In order to minimize the effort of such studies, a generic risk analysis for an industrial sector proved to help. Standardised procedures can consequently be derived for efficient performance of the risk investigations. This procedure was successfully established in Switzerland for natural gas transmission lines and fossil fuel storage plants. The development process of the generic risk analysis involved an intense discussion between industry and authorities about methodology of assessment and the criteria of acceptance. This process finally led to scientific consistent modelling tools for risk analysis and to an improved communication from the industry to the authorities and the public. As a recent example, the Holland-Italy natural gas transmission pipeline is demonstrated, where this method was successfully employed. Although this pipeline traverses densely populated areas in Switzerland, using this established communication method, the risk problems could be solved without delaying the planning process. (authors)

Introduction of the risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Campon, G.; Martinez, I.

2013-01-01

An introduction of risks analysis was given in the exposition which main issues were: food innocuousness, world, regional and national food context,change of paradigms, health definition, risk, codex, standardization, food chain role, trade agreement, codex alimentarius, food transmission diseases cost impact

Diversion Path Analysis handbook. Volume 4 (of 4 volumes). Computer Program 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schleter, J.C.

1978-11-01

The FORTRAN IV computer program, DPA Computer Program 2 (DPACP-2) is used to produce tables and statistics on modifications identified when performing a Diversion Path Analysis (DPA) in accord with the methodology given in Volume 1. The program requires 259088 bytes exclusive of the operating system. The data assembled and tabulated by DPACP-2 assist the DPA team in analyzing and evaluating modifications to the plant's safeguards system that would eliminate, or reduce the severity of, vulnerabilities identified by means of the DPA. These vulnerabilities relate to the capability of the plant's material control and material accounting subsystems to indicate diversion of special nuclear material (SNM) by a knowledgeable insider

Risk Analysis Group annual progress report 1984

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1985-06-01

The activities of the Risk Analysis Group at Risoe during 1984 are presented. These include descriptions in some detail of work on general development topics and risk analysis performed as contractor. (author)

Lung-Protective Ventilation With Low Tidal Volumes and the Occurrence of Pulmonary Complications in Patients Without Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome: A Systematic Review and Individual Patient Data Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Neto, Ary Serpa; Simonis, Fabienne D; Barbas, Carmen S V; Biehl, Michelle; Determann, Rogier M; Elmer, Jonathan; Friedman, Gilberto; Gajic, Ognjen; Goldstein, Joshua N; Linko, Rita; Pinheiro de Oliveira, Roselaine; Sundar, Sugantha; Talmor, Daniel; Wolthuis, Esther K; Gama de Abreu, Marcelo; Pelosi, Paolo; Schultz, Marcus J

2015-10-01

Protective mechanical ventilation with low tidal volumes is standard of care for patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome. The aim of this individual patient data analysis was to determine the association between tidal volume and the occurrence of pulmonary complications in ICU patients without acute respiratory distress syndrome and the association between occurrence of pulmonary complications and outcome in these patients. Individual patient data analysis. ICU patients not fulfilling the consensus criteria for acute respiratory distress syndrome at the onset of ventilation. Mechanical ventilation with low tidal volume. The primary endpoint was development of a composite of acute respiratory distress syndrome and pneumonia during hospital stay. Based on the tertiles of tidal volume size in the first 2 days of ventilation, patients were assigned to a "low tidal volume group" (tidal volumes ≤ 7 mL/kg predicted body weight), an "intermediate tidal volume group" (> 7 and volume group" (≥ 10 mL/kg predicted body weight). Seven investigations (2,184 patients) were included. Acute respiratory distress syndrome or pneumonia occurred in 23% of patients in the low tidal volume group, in 28% of patients in the intermediate tidal volume group, and in 31% of the patients in the high tidal volume group (adjusted odds ratio [low vs high tidal volume group], 0.72; 95% CI, 0.52-0.98; p = 0.042). Occurrence of pulmonary complications was associated with a lower number of ICU-free and hospital-free days and alive at day 28 (10.0 ± 10.9 vs 13.8 ± 11.6 d; p volumes is associated with a lower risk of development of pulmonary complications in patients without acute respiratory distress syndrome.

Pulsed Direct Current Electrospray: Enabling Systematic Analysis of Small Volume Sample by Boosting Sample Economy.

Science.gov (United States)

Wei, Zhenwei; Xiong, Xingchuang; Guo, Chengan; Si, Xingyu; Zhao, Yaoyao; He, Muyi; Yang, Chengdui; Xu, Wei; Tang, Fei; Fang, Xiang; Zhang, Sichun; Zhang, Xinrong

2015-11-17

We had developed pulsed direct current electrospray ionization mass spectrometry (pulsed-dc-ESI-MS) for systematically profiling and determining components in small volume sample. Pulsed-dc-ESI utilized constant high voltage to induce the generation of single polarity pulsed electrospray remotely. This method had significantly boosted the sample economy, so as to obtain several minutes MS signal duration from merely picoliter volume sample. The elongated MS signal duration enable us to collect abundant MS(2) information on interested components in a small volume sample for systematical analysis. This method had been successfully applied for single cell metabolomics analysis. We had obtained 2-D profile of metabolites (including exact mass and MS(2) data) from single plant and mammalian cell, concerning 1034 components and 656 components for Allium cepa and HeLa cells, respectively. Further identification had found 162 compounds and 28 different modification groups of 141 saccharides in a single Allium cepa cell, indicating pulsed-dc-ESI a powerful tool for small volume sample systematical analysis.

Probabilistic risk assessment, Volume I

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1982-01-01

This book contains 158 papers presented at the International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Risk Assessment held by the American Nuclear Society (ANS) and the European Nuclear Society (ENS) in Port Chester, New York in 1981. The meeting was second in a series of three. The main focus of the meeting was on the safety of light water reactors. The papers discuss safety goals and risk assessment. Quantitative safety goals, risk assessment in non-nuclear technologies, and operational experience and data base are also covered. Included is an address by Dr. Chauncey Starr

Crash risk analysis during fog conditions using real-time traffic data.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Yina; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed; Lee, Jaeyoung

2018-05-01

This research investigates the changes of traffic characteristics and crash risks during fog conditions. Using real-time traffic flow and weather data at two regions in Florida, the traffic patterns at the fog duration were compared to the traffic patterns at the clear duration. It was found that the average 5-min speed and the average 5-min volume were prone to decreasing during fog. Based on previous studies, a "Crash Risk Increase Indicator (CRII)" was proposed to explore the differences of crash risk between fog and clear conditions. A binary logistic regression model was applied to link the increase of crash risks with traffic flow characteristics. The results suggested that the proposed indicator worked well in evaluating the increase of crash risk under fog condition. It was indicated that the crash risk was prone to increase at ramp vicinities in fog conditions. Also, the average 5-min volume during fog and the lane position are important factors for crash risk increase. The differences between the regions were also explored in this study. The results indicated that the locations with heavier traffic or locations at the lanes that were closest to the median in Region 2 were more likely to observe an increase in crash risks in fog conditions. It is expected that the proposed indicator can help identify the dangerous traffic status under fog conditions and then proper ITS technologies can be implemented to enhance traffic safety when the visibility declines. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Incidence of radiation pneumonitis after thoracic irradiation: Dose-volume correlates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schallenkamp, John M.; Miller, Robert C.; Brinkmann, Debra H.; Foote, Tyler; Garces, Yolanda I.

2007-01-01

Purpose: To define clinical and dosimetric parameters correlated with the risk of clinically relevant radiation pneumonitis (RP) after thoracic radiotherapy. Methods and Materials: Records of consecutive patients treated with definitive thoracic radiotherapy were retrospectively reviewed for the incidence of RP of Grade 2 or greater by the Common Toxicity Criteria. Dose-volume histograms using total lung volume (TL) and TL minus gross tumor volume (TL-G) were created with and without heterogeneity corrections. Mean lung dose (MLD), effective lung volume (V eff ), and percentage of TL or TL-G receiving greater than or equal to 10, 13, 15, 20, and 30 Gy (V10-V30, respectively) were analyzed by logistic regression. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were generated to estimate RP predictive values. Results: Twelve cases of RP were identified in 92 eligible patients. Mean lung dose, V10, V13, V15, V20, and V eff were significantly correlated to RP. Combinations of MLD, V eff , V20, and V30 lost significance using TL-G and heterogeneity corrections. Receiver operating characteristic analysis determined V10 and V13 as the best predictors of RP risk, with a decrease in predictive value above those volumes. Conclusions: Intrathoracic radiotherapy should be planned with caution when using radiotherapy techniques delivering doses of 10 to 15 Gy to large lung volumes

Association between the volume of inpatient rehabilitation therapy and the risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in patients with ischemic stroke.

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Gwo-Chi; Hsu, Chia-Yu; Yu, Hui-Kung; Chen, Jiann-Perng; Chang, Yu-Ju; Chien, Kuo-Liong

2014-02-01

To investigate the relationship between the volume of inpatient rehabilitation therapy and mortality among patients with acute ischemic stroke, as well as to assess whether the association varies with respect to stroke severity. A retrospective study with a cohort of consecutive patients who had acute ischemic stroke between January 1, 2008, and June 30, 2009. Referral medical center. Adults with acute ischemic stroke (N=1277) who were admitted to a tertiary hospital. Not applicable. Stroke-related mortality. During the median follow-up period of 12.3 months (ranging from January 1, 2008, to December 31, 2009), 163 deaths occurred. Greater volume of rehabilitation therapy was associated with a reduced risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality (P for trend rehabilitation volume was associated with a 55% lower risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR]=.45; 95% confidence interval [CI], .30-.65) and a 50% lower risk of cardiovascular mortality (HR=.50; 95% CI, .31-.82). The association did not vary with respect to stroke severity (P for interaction = .45 and .73 for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, respectively). The volume of inpatient rehabilitation therapy and mortality were significantly inversely related in the patients with ischemic stroke. Thus, further programs aimed at promoting greater use of rehabilitation services are warranted. Copyright © 2014 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Relative cerebral blood volume as a marker of durable tissue-at-risk viability in hyperacute ischemic stroke.

Science.gov (United States)

Cortijo, Elisa; Calleja, Ana Isabel; García-Bermejo, Pablo; Mulero, Patricia; Pérez-Fernández, Santiago; Reyes, Javier; Muñoz, Ma Fe; Martínez-Galdámez, Mario; Arenillas, Juan Francisco

2014-01-01

Selection of best responders to reperfusion therapies could be aided by predicting the duration of tissue-at-risk viability, which may be dependant on collateral circulation status. We aimed to identify the best predictor of good collateral circulation among perfusion computed tomography (PCT) parameters in middle cerebral artery (MCA) ischemic stroke and to analyze how early MCA response to intravenous thrombolysis and PCT-derived markers of good collaterals interact to determine stroke outcome. We prospectively studied patients with acute MCA ischemic stroke treated with intravenous thrombolysis who underwent PCT before treatment showing a target mismatch profile. Collateral status was assessed using a PCT source image-based score. PCT maps were quantitatively analyzed. Cerebral blood volume (CBV), cerebral blood flow, and Tmax were calculated within the hypoperfused volume and in the equivalent region of unaffected hemisphere. Occluded MCAs were monitored by transcranial Duplex to assess early recanalization. Main outcome variables were brain hypodensity volume and modified Rankin scale score at day 90. One hundred patients with MCA ischemic stroke imaged by PCT received intravenous thrombolysis, and 68 met all inclusion criteria. A relative CBV (rCBV) >0.93 emerged as the only predictor of good collaterals (odds ratio, 12.6; 95% confidence interval, 2.9-55.9; P=0.001). Early MCA recanalization was associated with better long-term outcome and lower infarct volume in patients with rCBV<0.93, but not in patients with high rCBV. None of the patients with rCBV<0.93 achieved good outcome in absence of early recanalization. High rCBV was the strongest marker of good collaterals and may characterize durable tissue-at-risk viability in hyperacute MCA ischemic stroke.

How to Perform an Ethical Risk Analysis (eRA).

Science.gov (United States)

Hansson, Sven Ove

2018-02-26

Ethical analysis is often needed in the preparation of policy decisions on risk. A three-step method is proposed for performing an ethical risk analysis (eRA). In the first step, the people concerned are identified and categorized in terms of the distinct but compatible roles of being risk-exposed, a beneficiary, or a decisionmaker. In the second step, a more detailed classification of roles and role combinations is performed, and ethically problematic role combinations are identified. In the third step, further ethical deliberation takes place, with an emphasis on individual risk-benefit weighing, distributional analysis, rights analysis, and power analysis. Ethical issues pertaining to subsidiary risk roles, such as those of experts and journalists, are also treated in this phase. An eRA should supplement, not replace, a traditional risk analysis that puts emphasis on the probabilities and severities of undesirable events but does not cover ethical issues such as agency, interpersonal relationships, and justice. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

Proteomics analysis of human breast milk to assess breast cancer risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Aslebagh, Roshanak; Channaveerappa, Devika; Arcaro, Kathleen F; Darie, Costel C

2018-02-01

Detection of breast cancer (BC) in young women is challenging because mammography, the most common tool for detecting BC, is not effective on the dense breast tissue characteristic of young women. In addition to the limited means for detecting their BC, young women face a transient increased risk of pregnancy-associated BC. As a consequence, reproductively active women could benefit significantly from a tool that provides them with accurate risk assessment and early detection of BC. One potential method for detection of BC is biochemical monitoring of proteins and other molecules in bodily fluids such as serum, nipple aspirate, ductal lavage, tear, urine, saliva and breast milk. Of all these fluids, only breast milk provides access to a large volume of breast tissue, in the form of exfoliated epithelial cells, and to the local breast environment, in the form of molecules in the milk. Thus, analysis of breast milk is a non-invasive method with significant potential for assessing BC risk. Here we analyzed human breast milk by mass spectrometry (MS)-based proteomics to build a biomarker signature for early detection of BC. Ten milk samples from eight women provided five paired-groups (cancer versus control) for analysis of dysregulatedproteins: two within woman comparisons (milk from a diseased breast versus a healthy breast of the same woman) and three across women comparisons (milk from a woman with cancer versus a woman without cancer). Despite a wide range in the time between milk donation and cancer diagnosis (cancer diagnosis occurred from 1 month before to 24 months after milk donation), the levels of some proteins differed significantly between cancer and control in several of the five comparison groups. These pilot data are supportive of the idea that molecular analysis of breast milk will identify proteins informative for early detection and accurate assessment of BC risk, and warrant further research. Data are available via ProteomeXchange with identifier

RISK ANALYSIS IN INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY AND COMMUNICATION OUTSOURCING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Edmir Parada Vasques Prado

2011-12-01

Full Text Available This research aims at evaluating the risk analysis process in Information Technology and Communication (ICT outsourcing conducted by organizations of the private sector. The research is characterized by being a descriptive, quantitative and transversal type study, which was used the survey method. Data were collected through questionnaire, the sample is not random and we used a convenience sampling process. The research made contributions to understanding the risk analysis process in ICT services outsourcing, and identified statistically significant relationships between risk analysis, organization's size and its industry, and between risk analysis and diversity of outsourced services

Risk-benefit analysis and public policy: a bibliography

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Clark, E.M.; Van Horn, A.J.

1976-11-01

Risk-benefit analysis has been implicitly practiced whenever decision-makers are confronted with decisions involving risks to life, health, or to the environment. Various methodologies have been developed to evaluate relevant criteria and to aid in assessing the impacts of alternative projects. Among these have been cost-benefit analysis, which has been widely used for project evaluation. However, in many cases it has been difficult to assign dollar costs to those criteria involving risks and benefits which are not now assigned explicit monetary values in our economic system. Hence, risk-benefit analysis has evolved to become more than merely an extension of cost-benefit analysis, and many methods have been applied to examine the trade-offs between risks and benefits. In addition, new scientific and statistical techniques have been developed for assessing current and future risks. The 950 references included in this bibliography are meant to suggest the breadth of those methodologies which have been applied to decisions involving risk.

Risk-benefit analysis and public policy: a bibliography

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clark, E.M.; Van Horn, A.J.

1976-11-01

Risk-benefit analysis has been implicitly practiced whenever decision-makers are confronted with decisions involving risks to life, health, or to the environment. Various methodologies have been developed to evaluate relevant criteria and to aid in assessing the impacts of alternative projects. Among these have been cost-benefit analysis, which has been widely used for project evaluation. However, in many cases it has been difficult to assign dollar costs to those criteria involving risks and benefits which are not now assigned explicit monetary values in our economic system. Hence, risk-benefit analysis has evolved to become more than merely an extension of cost-benefit analysis, and many methods have been applied to examine the trade-offs between risks and benefits. In addition, new scientific and statistical techniques have been developed for assessing current and future risks. The 950 references included in this bibliography are meant to suggest the breadth of those methodologies which have been applied to decisions involving risk

Methods for Risk Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alverbro, Karin

2010-01-01

Many decision-making situations today affect humans and the environment. In practice, many such decisions are made without an overall view and prioritise one or other of the two areas. Now and then these two areas of regulation come into conflict, e.g. the best alternative as regards environmental considerations is not always the best from a human safety perspective and vice versa. This report was prepared within a major project with the aim of developing a framework in which both the environmental aspects and the human safety aspects are integrated, and decisions can be made taking both fields into consideration. The safety risks have to be analysed in order to be successfully avoided and one way of doing this is to use different kinds of risk analysis methods. There is an abundance of existing methods to choose from and new methods are constantly being developed. This report describes some of the risk analysis methods currently available for analysing safety and examines the relationships between them. The focus here is mainly on human safety aspects

Does prostate brachytherapy treat the seminal vesicles? A dose-volume histogram analysis of seminal vesicles in patients undergoing combined PD-103 prostate implantation and external beam irradiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stock, Richard G.; Lo, Yeh-Chi; Gaildon, Mohamoud; Stone, Nelson N.

1999-01-01

Purpose: Combined brachytherapy of the prostate and external beam irradiation (EBRT) of the prostate and seminal vesicles (SV) is becoming a popular treatment for high-risk prostate cancer. Dose-volume histogram (DVH) analysis of the SV in patients undergoing this treatment was performed to determine the dose distribution to the SV and the adequacy of this treatment in patients with potential SV involvement. Methods and Materials: Twenty-five consecutive patients were treated with a Pd-103 implant of the prostate alone and 45 Gy of EBRT to the prostate and SV. Attempts were not made to implant the SV but seeds were routinely placed at the junction of the prostate and SV. All patients underwent CT-based post implant dosimetric analysis 1 month after implantation. As part of this analysis, DVH were generated for the prostate and total SV volume (SVT). In addition, the SV was divided into 6-mm-thick volumes identified as SV1, SV2, SV3, SV4, and SV5 starting from the junction of the prostate and SV and extending distally. DVH were also generated for these structures. Delivered dose was defined as the D90 (dose delivered to 90% of the organ on DVH). Results: The median volumes in cc of the prostate, SVT, SV1, SV2, SV3, SV4, and SV5 were 34.33, 9.75, 2.7, 3.48, 2.92, 3.18, and 1.96 respectively. The SVT contained from 0-9 seeds (median 2). There was little dose delivered to the SVT and SV volumes from the implanted prostate. The median D90 values for the prostate, SVT, SV1, SV2, SV3, SV4, and SV5 were 8615 cGy, 675 cGy, 3100 cGy, 1329 cGy, 553 cGy, 246 cGy, and 67 cGy, respectively. The dose delivered to the prostate covered small percentages of SV. The percents of SV volumes covered by the prostate D90 were 11, 35, 3.3, 0, 0, and 0 for SVT, SV1, SV2, SV3, SV4, and SV5, respectively. Conclusions: DVH analysis of the SV reveals that dose generated from an implanted prostate contributes little to the SV. Those patients at high risk for SV involvement may be under treated

A meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials of low-volume polyethylene glycol plus ascorbic acid versus standard-volume polyethylene glycol solution as bowel preparations for colonoscopy.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qingsong Xie

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Standard-volume polyethylene glycol (PEG gut lavage solutions are safe and effective, but they require the consumption of large volumes of fluid. A new lower-volume solution of PEG plus ascorbic acid has been used recently as a preparation for colonoscopy. AIM: A meta-analysis was performed to compare the performance of low-volume PEG plus ascorbic acid with standard-volume PEG as bowel preparation for colonoscopy. STUDY: Electronic and manual searches were performed to identify randomized controlled trials (RCTs that compared the performance of low-volume PEG plus ascorbic acid with standard-volume PEG as bowel preparation for colonoscopy. After a methodological quality assessment and data extraction, the pooled estimates of bowel preparation efficacy during bowel cleansing, compliance with preparation, willingness to repeat the same preparation, and the side effects were calculated. We calculated pooled estimates of odds ratios (OR by fixed- and/or random-effects models. We also assessed heterogeneity among studies and the publication bias. RESULTS: Eleven RCTs were identified for analysis. The pooled OR for preparation efficacy during bowel cleansing and for compliance with preparation for low-volume PEG plus ascorbic acid were 1.08 (95% CI = 0.98-1.28, P = 0.34 and 2.23 (95% CI = 1.67-2.98, P<0.00001, respectively, compared with those for standard-volume PEG. The side effects of vomiting and nausea for low-volume PEG plus ascorbic acid were reduced relative to standard-volume PEG. There was no significant publication bias, according to a funnel plot. CONCLUSIONS: Low-volume PEG plus ascorbic acid gut lavage achieved non-inferior efficacy for bowel cleansing, is more acceptable to patients, and has fewer side effects than standard-volume PEG as a bowel preparation method for colonoscopy.

Flood Risk Assessment Based On Security Deficit Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Beck, J.; Metzger, R.; Hingray, B.; Musy, A.

Risk is a human perception: a given risk may be considered as acceptable or unac- ceptable depending on the group that has to face that risk. Flood risk analysis of- ten estimates economic losses from damages, but neglects the question of accept- able/unacceptable risk. With input from land use managers, politicians and other stakeholders, risk assessment based on security deficit analysis determines objects with unacceptable risk and their degree of security deficit. Such a risk assessment methodology, initially developed by the Swiss federal authorities, is illustrated by its application on a reach of the Alzette River (Luxembourg) in the framework of the IRMA-SPONGE FRHYMAP project. Flood risk assessment always involves a flood hazard analysis, an exposed object vulnerability analysis, and an analysis combing the results of these two previous analyses. The flood hazard analysis was done with the quasi-2D hydraulic model FldPln to produce flood intensity maps. Flood intensity was determined by the water height and velocity. Object data for the vulnerability analysis, provided by the Luxembourg government, were classified according to their potential damage. Potential damage is expressed in terms of direct, human life and secondary losses. A thematic map was produced to show the object classification. Protection goals were then attributed to the object classes. Protection goals are assigned in terms of an acceptable flood intensity for a certain flood frequency. This is where input from land use managers and politicians comes into play. The perception of risk in the re- gion or country influences the protection goal assignment. Protection goals as used in Switzerland were used in this project. Thematic maps showing the protection goals of each object in the case study area for a given flood frequency were produced. Com- parison between an object's protection goal and the intensity of the flood that touched the object determine the acceptability of the risk and the

Dose-volume analysis for quality assurance of interstitial brachytherapy for breast cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vicini, Frank A.; Kestin, Larry L.; Edmundson, Gregory K.; Jaffray, David A.; Wong, John W.; Kini, Vijay R.; Chen, Peter Y.; Martinez, Alvaro A.

1999-01-01

Purpose/Objective: The use of brachytherapy in the management of breast cancer has increased significantly over the past several years. Unfortunately, few techniques have been developed to compare dosimetric quality and target volume coverage concurrently. We present a new method of implant evaluation that incorporates computed tomography-based three-dimensional (3D) dose-volume analysis with traditional measures of brachytherapy quality. Analyses performed in this fashion will be needed to ultimately assist in determining the efficacy of breast implants. Methods and Materials: Since March of 1993, brachytherapy has been used as the sole radiation modality after lumpectomy in selected protocol patients with early-stage breast cancer treated with breast-conserving therapy. Eight patients treated with high-dose-rate (HDR) brachytherapy who had surgical clips outlining the lumpectomy cavity and underwent computed tomography (CT) scanning after implant placement were selected for this study. For each patient, the postimplant CT dataset was transferred to a 3D treatment planning system. The lumpectomy cavity, target volume (lumpectomy cavity plus a 1-cm margin), and entire breast were outlined on each axial slice. Once all volumes were entered, the programmed HDR brachytherapy source positions and dwell times were imported into the 3D planning system. Using the tools provided by the 3D planning system, the implant dataset was then registered to the visible implant template in the CT dataset. The distribution of the implant dose was analyzed with respect to defined volumes via dose-volume histograms (DVH). Isodose surfaces, the dose homogeneity index, and dosimetric coverage of the defined volumes were calculated and contrasted. All patients received 32 Gy to the entire implanted volume in 8 fractions of 4 Gy over 4 days. Results: Three-plane implants were used for 7 patients and a two-plane implant for 1 patient. The median number of needles per implant was 16.5 (range

Analysis and management of risks experienced in tunnel construction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cagatay Pamukcu

2015-12-01

Full Text Available In this study, first of all, the definitions of "risk", "risk analysis", "risk assessment" and "risk management" were made to avoid any confusions about these terms and significance of risk analysis and management in engineering projects was emphasized. Then, both qualitative and quantitative risk analysis techniques were mentioned and within the scope of the study, Event Tree Analysis method was selected in order to analyze the risks regarding TBM (Tunnel Boring Machine operations in tunnel construction. After all hazards that would be encountered during tunnel construction by TBM method had been investigated, those hazards were undergoing a Preliminary Hazard Analysis to sort out and prioritize the risks with high scores. When the risk scores were taken into consideration, it was seen that the hazards with high risk scores could be classified into 4 groups which are excavation + support induced accidents, accidents stemming from geologic conditions, auxiliary works, and project contract. According to these four classified groups of initiating events, Event Tree Analysis was conducted by taking into care 4 countermeasures apart from each other. Finally, the quantitative and qualitative consequences of Event Tree Analyses, which were undertaken for all initiating events, were investigated and interpreted together by making comparisons and referring to previous studies.

The design of the run Clever randomized trial: running volume, -intensity and running-related injuries.

Science.gov (United States)

Ramskov, Daniel; Nielsen, Rasmus Oestergaard; Sørensen, Henrik; Parner, Erik; Lind, Martin; Rasmussen, Sten

2016-04-23

Injury incidence and prevalence in running populations have been investigated and documented in several studies. However, knowledge about injury etiology and prevention is needed. Training errors in running are modifiable risk factors and people engaged in recreational running need evidence-based running schedules to minimize the risk of injury. The existing literature on running volume and running intensity and the development of injuries show conflicting results. This may be related to previously applied study designs, methods used to quantify the performed running and the statistical analysis of the collected data. The aim of the Run Clever trial is to investigate if a focus on running intensity compared with a focus on running volume in a running schedule influences the overall injury risk differently. The Run Clever trial is a randomized trial with a 24-week follow-up. Healthy recreational runners between 18 and 65 years and with an average of 1-3 running sessions per week the past 6 months are included. Participants are randomized into two intervention groups: Running schedule-I and Schedule-V. Schedule-I emphasizes a progression in running intensity by increasing the weekly volume of running at a hard pace, while Schedule-V emphasizes a progression in running volume, by increasing the weekly overall volume. Data on the running performed is collected by GPS. Participants who sustain running-related injuries are diagnosed by a diagnostic team of physiotherapists using standardized diagnostic criteria. The members of the diagnostic team are blinded. The study design, procedures and informed consent were approved by the Ethics Committee Northern Denmark Region (N-20140069). The Run Clever trial will provide insight into possible differences in injury risk between running schedules emphasizing either running intensity or running volume. The risk of sustaining volume- and intensity-related injuries will be compared in the two intervention groups using a competing

Water volume reduction increases eutrophication risk in tropical semi-arid reservoirs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carlos Alberto Nascimento da Rocha Junior

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Aim Global patterns of temperature and precipitation have significantly changed over the last century and nearly all predictions point to even greater changes by the end of 2100. Long periods of drought in semi-arid regions generally reduce reservoirs and lakes water level, increasing the nutrients concentrations in the water. Our principal hypothesis is that water volume reduction, driven by prolonged droughts, will increase reservoirs susceptibility to eutrophication and accordingly an increase in trophic state. To test this hypothesis, we used a comparative analysis of ecosystems in a space-for-time substitution approach, in a Brazilian semi-arid region, to predict the consequences of reservoirs water volume reduction on key limnological variables. Methods We sampled 16 reservoirs located in two sub-basins with contrasting rainfall regimes, inserted on Piranhas-Açu watershed. The Seridó River basin (SB is dry and the Piancó River basin (SB is humid, with annual mean precipitation of 500 and 700 mm, respectively. Linear regressions analyzes were performed to assess whether the percentage of maximum volume stored (%MVS is a good predictor for total phosphorus (TP, total nitrogen (TN and chlorophyll-a (CHLA. In addition, a two factorial analysis of variance (two-way ANOVA was performed to test for period (dry, very dry and extremely dry, basin (SB and PB and their interactions effects on TP, TN, CHLA, conductivity, turbidity, and Secchi depth. Results The results showed a reduction in the reservoirs %MVS both for PB and SB regions. At the extremely dry period, all reservoirs were classified as eutrophic, but TP concentrations reached much higher values in SB than in PB. The linear regressions analyses showed that the TP and TN were negatively related to %MVS during all periods sampled. The two-way ANOVA showed that there were significant basin and period effects on TP, TN, Secchi depth and turbidity, whereas for CHLA and conductivity

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Food chain uncertainty assessment. Volume 1: Main report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brown, J. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands)] [and others

1997-06-01

This volume is the first of a two-volume document that summarizes a joint project conducted by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the European Commission to assess uncertainties in the MACCS and COSYMA probabilistic accident consequence codes. These codes were developed primarily for estimating the risks presented by nuclear reactors based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. This document reports on an ongoing project to assess uncertainty in the MACCS and COSYMA calculations for the offsite consequences of radionuclide releases by hypothetical nuclear power plant accidents. A panel of sixteen experts was formed to compile credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for food chain variables that affect calculations of offsite consequences. The expert judgment elicitation procedure and its outcomes are described in these volumes. Other panels were formed to consider uncertainty in other aspects of the codes. Their results are described in companion reports. Volume 1 contains background information and a complete description of the joint consequence uncertainty study. Volume 2 contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures for both panels, (3) the rationales and results for the panels on soil and plant transfer and animal transfer, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Food chain uncertainty assessment. Volume 1: Main report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brown, J.; Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.

1997-06-01

This volume is the first of a two-volume document that summarizes a joint project conducted by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the European Commission to assess uncertainties in the MACCS and COSYMA probabilistic accident consequence codes. These codes were developed primarily for estimating the risks presented by nuclear reactors based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. This document reports on an ongoing project to assess uncertainty in the MACCS and COSYMA calculations for the offsite consequences of radionuclide releases by hypothetical nuclear power plant accidents. A panel of sixteen experts was formed to compile credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for food chain variables that affect calculations of offsite consequences. The expert judgment elicitation procedure and its outcomes are described in these volumes. Other panels were formed to consider uncertainty in other aspects of the codes. Their results are described in companion reports. Volume 1 contains background information and a complete description of the joint consequence uncertainty study. Volume 2 contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures for both panels, (3) the rationales and results for the panels on soil and plant transfer and animal transfer, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses

County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 10 Appendix I - Historical Evaporation.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

2017-06-01

This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 8 Appendix G - Historical Precipitation.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

2017-06-01

This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

Environmental contaminants in food. Volume II-Part B: Working papers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1980-01-01

This volume contains working papers written for Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) to assist in preparation of the report Environmental Contaminants in Food. The contents include: (1) Toxic substances in food information systems: design and management; (2) Assessment of carcinogenic risks from PCBs in food; (3) Economic analysis of alternative action levels in the regulation of environmental contaminants in food; (4) Analysis of foods for radioactivity; (5) Approaches to monitoring environmental contaminants in food; (6) Analytical systems for the determination of metals in food and water supplies; (7) Assessment of methods for regulating 'unavoidable' contaminants in the food supply; and (8) Consumer risk from environmental contaminants in food

High lung cancer surgical procedure volume is associated with shorter length of stay and lower risks of re-admission and death

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Møller, Henrik; Riaz, Sharma P; Holmberg, Lars

2016-01-01

It is debated whether treating cancer patients in high-volume surgical centres can lead to improvement in outcomes, such as shorter length of hospital stay, decreased frequency and severity of post-operative complications, decreased re-admission, and decreased mortality. The dataset for this anal......It is debated whether treating cancer patients in high-volume surgical centres can lead to improvement in outcomes, such as shorter length of hospital stay, decreased frequency and severity of post-operative complications, decreased re-admission, and decreased mortality. The dataset...... to their geographical population. Higher volume hospitals had shorter length of stay and the odds of re-admission were 15% lower in the highest hospital volume quintile compared with the lowest quintile. Mortality risks were 1% after 30 d and 3% after 90 d. Patients from hospitals in the highest volume quintile had...

The System 80+ Standard Plant design control document. Volume 21

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1997-01-01

This Design Control Document (DCD) is a repository of information comprising the System 80+trademark Standard Plant Design. The DCD also provides that design-related information to be incorporated by reference in the design certification rule for the System 80+ Standard Plant Design. Applicants for a combined license pursuant to 10 CFR 52 must ensure that the final Design Certification Rule and the associated Statements of Consideration are used when making all licensing decisions relevant to the System 80+ Standard Plant Design. The Design Control Document contains the DCD introduction, The Certified Design Material (CDM) [i.e., ''Tier 1''] and the Approved Design Material (ADM) [i.e., ''Tier 2''] for the System 80+ Standard Plant Design. The CDM includes the following sections: (1) Introductory material; (2) Certified Design Material for System 80+ systems and structures; (3) Certified Design Material for non-system-based aspects of the System 80+ Certified design; (4) Interface requirements; and (5) Site parameters. The ADM, to the extent applicable for the System 80+ Standard Plant Design, includes: (1) the information required for the final safety analysis report under 20 CFR 50.34; (2) other relevant information required by 10 CFR 52.47; and (3) emergency operations guidelines. This volume contains parts 1--10 of section 19 (Probabilistic Risk Assessment) of the ADM Design and Analysis. Topics covered are: methodology; initiating event evaluation; accident sequence determination; data analysis; systems analysis; external events analysis; shutdown risk assessment; accident sequence quantification; and sensitivity analysis. Also included in this volume are Appendix 19.8A Shutdown Risk Assessment and Appendix A to Appendix 19.8A Request for Information

Geostatistical approach for assessing soil volumes requiring remediation: validation using lead-polluted soils underlying a former smelting works.

Science.gov (United States)

Demougeot-Renard, Helene; De Fouquet, Chantal

2004-10-01

Assessing the volume of soil requiring remediation and the accuracy of this assessment constitutes an essential step in polluted site management. If this remediation volume is not properly assessed, misclassification may lead both to environmental risks (polluted soils may not be remediated) and financial risks (unexpected discovery of polluted soils may generate additional remediation costs). To minimize such risks, this paper proposes a geostatistical methodology based on stochastic simulations that allows the remediation volume and the uncertainty to be assessed using investigation data. The methodology thoroughly reproduces the conditions in which the soils are classified and extracted at the remediation stage. The validity of the approach is tested by applying it on the data collected during the investigation phase of a former lead smelting works and by comparing the results with the volume that has actually been remediated. This real remediated volume was composed of all the remediation units that were classified as polluted after systematic sampling and analysis during clean-up stage. The volume estimated from the 75 samples collected during site investigation slightly overestimates (5.3% relative error) the remediated volume deduced from 212 remediation units. Furthermore, the real volume falls within the range of uncertainty predicted using the proposed methodology.

Risk Analysis of Volume Cheat Strategy in a Competitive Capacity Market

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Feng, Donghan; Xu, Zhao

2009-01-01

Capacity market provides additional revenue stream for the power suppliers. In a capacity-energy combined market environment, suppliers have incentives to deliberately over-offer their capacities in the capacity market while bid very high price in the energy and ancillary markets to avoid operation....... This paper analyzes the risks and profits of this capacity-over-offer behavior, and develops a method for computing non-operable penalty level which can prevent the capacity-over-offer behavior. It is found that the effective penalty level is highly correlated with the stochastic characteristics......-energy market environment....

49 CFR 260.17 - Credit risk premium analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Credit risk premium analysis. 260.17 Section 260... Financial Assistance § 260.17 Credit risk premium analysis. (a) When Federal appropriations are not available to cover the total subsidy cost, the Administrator will determine the Credit Risk Premium...

Determination of bone mineral volume fraction using impedance analysis and Bruggeman model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ciuchi, Ioana Veronica; Olariu, Cristina Stefania, E-mail: oocristina@yahoo.com; Mitoseriu, Liliana, E-mail: lmtsr@uaic.ro

2013-11-20

Highlights: • Mineral volume fraction of a bone sample was determined. • Dielectric properties for bone sample and for the collagen type I were determined by impedance spectroscopy. • Bruggeman effective medium approximation was applied in order to evaluate mineral volume fraction of the sample. • The computed values were compared with ones derived from a histogram test performed on SEM micrographs. -- Abstract: Measurements by impedance spectroscopy and Bruggeman effective medium approximation model were employed in order to determine the mineral volume fraction of dry bone. This approach assumes that two or more phases are present into the composite: the matrix (environment) and the other ones are inclusion phases. A fragment of femur diaphysis dense bone from a young pig was investigated in its dehydrated state. Measuring the dielectric properties of bone and its main components (hydroxyapatite and collagen) and using the Bruggeman approach, the mineral volume filling factor was determined. The computed volume fraction of the mineral volume fraction was confirmed by a histogram test analysis based on the SEM microstructures. In spite of its simplicity, the method provides a good approximation for the bone mineral volume fraction. The method which uses impedance spectroscopy and EMA modeling can be further developed by considering the conductive components of the bone tissue as a non-invasive in situ impedance technique for bone composition evaluation and monitoring.

Determination of bone mineral volume fraction using impedance analysis and Bruggeman model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ciuchi, Ioana Veronica; Olariu, Cristina Stefania; Mitoseriu, Liliana

2013-01-01

Highlights: • Mineral volume fraction of a bone sample was determined. • Dielectric properties for bone sample and for the collagen type I were determined by impedance spectroscopy. • Bruggeman effective medium approximation was applied in order to evaluate mineral volume fraction of the sample. • The computed values were compared with ones derived from a histogram test performed on SEM micrographs. -- Abstract: Measurements by impedance spectroscopy and Bruggeman effective medium approximation model were employed in order to determine the mineral volume fraction of dry bone. This approach assumes that two or more phases are present into the composite: the matrix (environment) and the other ones are inclusion phases. A fragment of femur diaphysis dense bone from a young pig was investigated in its dehydrated state. Measuring the dielectric properties of bone and its main components (hydroxyapatite and collagen) and using the Bruggeman approach, the mineral volume filling factor was determined. The computed volume fraction of the mineral volume fraction was confirmed by a histogram test analysis based on the SEM microstructures. In spite of its simplicity, the method provides a good approximation for the bone mineral volume fraction. The method which uses impedance spectroscopy and EMA modeling can be further developed by considering the conductive components of the bone tissue as a non-invasive in situ impedance technique for bone composition evaluation and monitoring

Review of Department of Defense Education Activity (DODEA) Schools. Volume II: Quantitative Analysis of Educational Quality

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Anderson, Lowell

2000-01-01

This volume compiles, and presents in integrated form, IDA's quantitative analysis of educational quality provided by DoD's dependent schools, It covers the quantitative aspects of volume I in greater...

Unnoticed Post-Void Residual Urine Volume in People with Moderate to Severe Intellectual Disabilities: Prevalence and Risk Factors

Science.gov (United States)

de Waal, K. H.; Tinselboer, B. M.; Evenhuis, H. M.; Penning, C.

2009-01-01

Background: Increased post-void residual urine volume (PVR) is often seen in geriatric populations. People with intellectual disabilities (ID) have risk factors in common with these populations. Aims: To investigate in adults with ID: (1) Feasibility of portable ultrasound bladder scanning; (2) Prevalence of PVR; and (3) Relations with proposed…

Lobar analysis of collapsibility indices to assess functional lung volumes in COPD patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Kitano, Mariko; Iwano, Shingo; Hashimoto, Naozumi; Matsuo, Keiji; Hasegawa, Yoshinori; Naganawa, Shinji

2014-01-01

We investigated correlations between lung volume collapsibility indices and pulmonary function test (PFT) results and assessed lobar differences in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients, using paired inspiratory and expiratory three dimensional (3D) computed tomography (CT) images. We retrospectively assessed 28 COPD patients who underwent paired inspiratory and expiratory CT and PFT exams on the same day. A computer-aided diagnostic system calculated total lobar volume and emphysematous lobar volume (ELV). Normal lobar volume (NLV) was determined by subtracting ELV from total lobar volume, both for inspiratory phase (NLVI) and for expiratory phase (NLVE). We also determined lobar collapsibility indices: NLV collapsibility ratio (NLVCR) (%)=(1-NLVE/NLVI)×100%. Associations between lobar volumes and PFT results, and collapsibility indices and PFT results were determined by Pearson correlation analysis. NLVCR values were significantly correlated with PFT results. Forced expiratory volume in 1 second, measured as percent of predicted results (FEV1%P) was significantly correlated with NLVCR values for the lower lobes (Pvolume, measured as percent of predicted (DLCO/VA%P) results were strongly correlated with ELVI for the upper lobes (Ppulmonary function in COPD patients.

Dependence of the risk of encephalopathy on the radiotherapy volume after combined surgery and radiotherapy of invasive pituitary tumors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rauhut, F.; Stolke, D.; Stuschke, M.; Sack, H.

2002-01-01

The effectiveness of radiotherapy in reducing tumor recurrence of pituitary adenomas is well documented. On the other hand, the risk of side effects to the surrounding central nervous system normal tissue should not be underestimated. This retrospective study includes 58 patients with subtotally resected pituitary tumors. Photon from a 5,7 MV linear accelerator of a 60 cobalt unit with a source-isocenter distance of 80 cm were used throughout for treatment. The doses per fraction ranged from 45 Gy to 60 Gy. For a direct comparison of the different fractionation schedules, the biological effective total dose with 2 Gy per fraction was calculated for all the different application schemes with doses per fraction longer or smaller than 2 Gy. To do this, a fractionation sensitivity of the normal cerebral tissue by an □/□ value of 2 Gy was assumed. Encephalopathy developed in 17 cases (28 percentage) after follow-up times of more than 5 years. Pathological CT- or MRI-findings were seen in 13 cases. Two factors were important for the genesis of radiogenic encephalopathy: 1. Multivariate analysis revealed that the risk of encephalopathy was associated with the radiation volume. 2. The location of the upper field border line was the strongest prognostic factor associated with the risk of encephalopathy (p < 0.05). (author)

Computational Aspects of Dam Risk Analysis: Findings and Challenges

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ignacio Escuder-Bueno

2016-09-01

Full Text Available In recent years, risk analysis techniques have proved to be a useful tool to inform dam safety management. This paper summarizes the outcomes of three themes related to dam risk analysis discussed in the Benchmark Workshops organized by the International Commission on Large Dams Technical Committee on “Computational Aspects of Analysis and Design of Dams.” In the 2011 Benchmark Workshop, estimation of the probability of failure of a gravity dam for the sliding failure mode was discussed. Next, in 2013, the discussion focused on the computational challenges of the estimation of consequences in dam risk analysis. Finally, in 2015, the probability of sliding and overtopping in an embankment was analyzed. These Benchmark Workshops have allowed a complete review of numerical aspects for dam risk analysis, showing that risk analysis methods are a very useful tool to analyze the risk of dam systems, including downstream consequence assessments and the uncertainty of structural models.

Integrating Household Risk Mitigation Behavior in Flood Risk Analysis: An Agent-Based Model Approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Haer, Toon; Botzen, W J Wouter; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen C J H

2017-10-01

Recent studies showed that climate change and socioeconomic trends are expected to increase flood risks in many regions. However, in these studies, human behavior is commonly assumed to be constant, which neglects interaction and feedback loops between human and environmental systems. This neglect of human adaptation leads to a misrepresentation of flood risk. This article presents an agent-based model that incorporates human decision making in flood risk analysis. In particular, household investments in loss-reducing measures are examined under three economic decision models: (1) expected utility theory, which is the traditional economic model of rational agents; (2) prospect theory, which takes account of bounded rationality; and (3) a prospect theory model, which accounts for changing risk perceptions and social interactions through a process of Bayesian updating. We show that neglecting human behavior in flood risk assessment studies can result in a considerable misestimation of future flood risk, which is in our case study an overestimation of a factor two. Furthermore, we show how behavior models can support flood risk analysis under different behavioral assumptions, illustrating the need to include the dynamic adaptive human behavior of, for instance, households, insurers, and governments. The method presented here provides a solid basis for exploring human behavior and the resulting flood risk with respect to low-probability/high-impact risks. © 2016 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

SAPHIRE 8 Volume 2 - Technical Reference

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

C. L. Smith; S. T. Wood; W. J. Galyean; J. A. Schroeder; M. B. Sattison

2011-03-01

The Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE) refers to a set of computer programs that were developed to create and analyze probabilistic risk assessment (PRAs). Herein information is provided on the principles used in the construction and operation of Version 8.0 of the SAPHIRE system. This report summarizes the fundamental mathematical concepts of sets and logic, fault trees, and probability. This volume then describes the algorithms used to construct a fault tree and to obtain the minimal cut sets. It gives the formulas used to obtain the probability of the top event from the minimal cut sets, and the formulas for probabilities that apply for various assumptions concerning reparability and mission time. It defines the measures of basic event importance that SAPHIRE can calculate. This volume gives an overview of uncertainty analysis using simple Monte Carlo sampling or Latin Hypercube sampling, and states the algorithms used by this program to generate random basic event probabilities from various distributions. Also covered are enhance capabilities such as seismic analysis, Workspace algorithms, cut set "recovery," end state manipulation, and use of "compound events."

Solution Monitoring Evaluated by Proliferation Risk Assessment and Fuzzy Optimization Analysis for Safeguards in a Reprocessing Process

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mitsutoshi Suzuki

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Solution monitoring (SM has been used in a nuclear reprocessing plant as an additional measure to provide assurance that the plant is operated as declared. The inline volume and density monitoring equipment with dip tubes is important for safety and safeguards purposes and is a typical example of safeguards by design (SBD. Recently safety, safeguards, and security by design (3SBD are proposed to promote an efficient and effective generation of nuclear energy. In 3SBD, proliferation risk assessment has the potential to consider likelihood of the incidence and proliferation risk in safeguards. In this study, risk assessment methodologies for safeguards and security are discussed and several mathematical methods are presented to investigate risk notion applied to intentional acts of facility misuse in an uncertainty environment. Proliferation risk analysis with the Markov model, deterrence effect with the game model, and SBD with fuzzy optimization are shown in feasibility studies to investigate the potential application of the risk and uncertainty analyses in safeguards. It is demonstrated that the SM is an effective measurement system using risk-informed and cost-effective SBD, even though there are inherent difficulties related to the possibility of operator’s falsification.

Cost-volume-profit and net present value analysis of health information systems.

Science.gov (United States)

McLean, R A

1998-08-01

The adoption of any information system should be justified by an economic analysis demonstrating that its projected benefits outweigh its projected costs. Analysis differ, however, on which methods to employ for such a justification. Accountants prefer cost-volume-profit analysis, and economists prefer net present value analysis. The article explains the strengths and weaknesses of each method and shows how they can be used together so that well-informed investments in information systems can be made.

Putting problem formulation at the forefront of GMO risk analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Tepfer, Mark; Racovita, Monica; Craig, Wendy

2013-01-01

When applying risk assessment and the broader process of risk analysis to decisions regarding the dissemination of genetically modified organisms (GMOs), the process has a tendency to become remarkably complex. Further, as greater numbers of countries consider authorising the large-scale dissemination of GMOs, and as GMOs with more complex traits reach late stages of development, there has been increasing concern about the burden posed by the complexity of risk analysis. We present here an improved approach for GMO risk analysis that gives a central role to problem formulation. Further, the risk analysis strategy has been clarified and simplified in order to make rigorously scientific risk assessment and risk analysis more broadly accessible to diverse stakeholder groups.

The Effect of Yoga on Arm Volume, Strength, and Range of Motion in Women at Risk for Breast Cancer-Related Lymphedema.

Science.gov (United States)

Mazor, Melissa; Lee, Jeannette Q; Peled, Anne; Zerzan, Sarah; Irwin, Chetan; Chesney, Margaret A; Serrurier, Katherine; Sbitany, Hani; Dhruva, Anand; Sacks, Devorah; Smoot, Betty

2018-02-01

To assess the feasibility, safety, and initial estimates of efficacy of a yoga program in postoperative care for women at high risk for breast cancer-related lymphedema (BCRL). Single-group pretest-post-test design. Patients were recruited from the University of California, San Francisco Carol Franc Buck Breast Care Center. Twenty-one women were enrolled in the study. Women were >18 years of age, had undergone surgical treatment for breast cancer, and were at high risk for BCRL. The women participated in an Ashtanga yoga intervention for 8 weeks. Sessions consisted of once/week instructor-led practice and once/week home practice. Particular attention was given to poses that emphasized upper body strength and flexibility, while avoiding significant time with the upper extremity (UE) in a dependent position. UE volume was assessed through circumferential forearm measurement, which was converted to volume using the formula for a truncated cone. Range of motion (ROM) was assessed for the shoulders, elbows, and wrists, using a standard goniometer. UE strength was assessed for shoulder abduction, elbow flexion, wrist flexion, and grip using a dynamometer. Twenty women completed the yoga intervention, with 17 returning for final assessment. Mean age was 52 (±9.1) years and body mass index was 24.8 (±5.1) kg/m 2 . Postintervention, mean volume in the at-risk UE was slightly reduced (p = 0.397). ROM for shoulder flexion (p yoga is feasible and safe for women who are at risk for BCRL and may result in small improvements in shoulder ROM and UE strength.

Streamlining project delivery through risk analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

2015-08-01

Project delivery is a significant area of concern and is subject to several risks throughout Plan Development : Process (PDP). These risks are attributed to major areas of project development, such as environmental : analysis, right-of-way (ROW) acqu...

Rectal cancer surgery: volume-outcome analysis.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Nugent, Emmeline

2010-12-01

There is strong evidence supporting the importance of the volume-outcome relationship with respect to lung and pancreatic cancers. This relationship for rectal cancer surgery however remains unclear. We review the currently available literature to assess the evidence base for volume outcome in relation to rectal cancer surgery.

Scenario logic and probabilistic management of risk in business and engineering

CERN Document Server

Solojentsev, E D

2005-01-01

In this volume the methodological aspects of the scenario logic and probabilistic (LP) non-success risk management are considered. The theoretical bases of scenario non-success risk LP-management in business and engineering are also stated. Methods and algorithms for the scenario risk LP-management in problems of classification, investment and effectiveness are described. Risk LP- models and results of numerical investigations for credit risks, risk of frauds, security portfolio risk, risk of quality, accuracy, and risk in multi-stage systems reliability are given. In addition, a rather large number of new problems of estimation, analysis and management of risk are considered. Software for risk problems based on LP-methods, LP-theory, and GIE are described too. Audience This volume is intended for experts and scientists in the area of the risk in business and engineering, in problems of classification, investment and effectiveness, and post-graduates in those subject areas.

Reliability and risk analysis methods research plan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1984-10-01

This document presents a plan for reliability and risk analysis methods research to be performed mainly by the Reactor Risk Branch (RRB), Division of Risk Analysis and Operations (DRAO), Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research. It includes those activities of other DRAO branches which are very closely related to those of the RRB. Related or interfacing programs of other divisions, offices and organizations are merely indicated. The primary use of this document is envisioned as an NRC working document, covering about a 3-year period, to foster better coordination in reliability and risk analysis methods development between the offices of Nuclear Regulatory Research and Nuclear Reactor Regulation. It will also serve as an information source for contractors and others to more clearly understand the objectives, needs, programmatic activities and interfaces together with the overall logical structure of the program

Risk management study for the retired Hanford Site facilities: Risk management executive summary

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coles, G.A.; Shultz, M.V.; Taylor, W.E.

1994-02-01

This document provides a cost-comparison evaluation for implementing certain risk-reduction measures and their effect on the overall risk of the 100 and 200 Area retired, surplus facilities. The evaluation is based on conditions that existed at the time the risk evaluation team performed facility investigations, and does not acknowledge risk-reduction measures that occurred soon after risk identification. This evaluation is one part of an overall risk management study for these facilities. The retired facilities investigated for this evaluation are located in the 100 and 200 Areas of the 1450-km 2 Hanford Site. The Hanford Site is a semiarid tract of land in southeastern Washington State. The nearest population center is Richland, Washington, (population 32,000) 30 km southeast of the 200 Area. This document is the first in a four volume series that comprise the risk management study for the retired, surplus facilities. Volume 2 is the risk evaluation work procedure; volume 3 provides the results for the risk evaluation; and volume 4 is the risk-reduction cost comparison

Multi-hazard risk analysis for management strategies

Science.gov (United States)

Kappes, M.; Keiler, M.; Bell, R.; Glade, T.

2009-04-01

Risk management is very often operating in a reactive way, responding to an event, instead of proactive starting with risk analysis and building up the whole process of risk evaluation, prevention, event management and regeneration. Since damage and losses from natural hazards raise continuously more and more studies, concepts (e.g. Switzerland or South Tyrol-Bolozano) and software packages (e.g. ARMAGEDOM, HAZUS or RiskScape) are developed to guide, standardize and facilitate the risk analysis. But these approaches focus on different aspects and are mostly closely adapted to the situation (legislation, organization of the administration, specific processes etc.) of the specific country or region. We propose in this study the development of a flexible methodology for multi-hazard risk analysis, identifying the stakeholders and their needs, processes and their characteristics, modeling approaches as well as incoherencies occurring by combining all these different aspects. Based on this concept a flexible software package will be established consisting of ArcGIS as central base and being complemented by various modules for hazard modeling, vulnerability assessment and risk calculation. Not all modules will be developed newly but taken from the current state-of-the-art and connected or integrated into ArcGIS. For this purpose two study sites, Valtellina in Italy and Bacelonnette in France, were chosen and the hazards types debris flows, rockfalls, landslides, avalanches and floods are planned to be included in the tool for a regional multi-hazard risk analysis. Since the central idea of this tool is its flexibility this will only be a first step, in the future further processes and scales can be included and the instrument thus adapted to any study site.

Low Plasma Volume in Normotensive Formerly Preeclamptic Women Predisposes to Hypertension.

Science.gov (United States)

Scholten, Ralph R; Lotgering, Fred K; Hopman, Maria T; Van Dijk, Arie; Van de Vlugt, Maureen; Janssen, Mirian C H; Spaanderman, Marc E A

2015-11-01

Formerly preeclamptic women are at risk for cardiovascular disease. Low plasma volume may reflect latent hypertension and potentially links preeclampsia with chronic cardiovascular disease. We hypothesized that low plasma volume in normotensive formerly preeclamptic women predisposes to hypertension. We longitudinally studied n=104 formerly preeclamptic women in whom plasma volume was measured 3 to 30 months after the preeclamptic pregnancy. Cardiovascular variables were assessed at 2 points in time (3-30 months postpartum and 2-5 years thereafter). Study population was divided into low plasma volume (≤1373 mL/m(2)) and normal plasma volume (>1373 mL/m(2)). Primary end point was hypertension at the second visit: defined as ≥140 mm Hg systolic or ≥90 mm Hg diastolic. Secondary outcome of this study was change in traditional cardiovascular risk profile between visits. Variables correlating univariately with change in blood pressure between visits were introduced in regression analysis. Eighteen of 104 (17%) formerly preeclamptic women who were normotensive at first visit had hypertension at second evaluation 2 to 5 years later. Hypertension developed more often in women with low plasma volume (10/35 [29%]) than in women with normal plasma volume (8/69 [12%]; odds ratio, 3.2; 95% confidence interval, 1.4-8.6). After adjustments, relationship between plasma volume status and subsequent hypertension persisted (adjusted odds ratio, 3.0; 95% confidence interval, 1.1-8.5). Mean arterial pressure at second visit correlated inverse linearly with plasma volume (r=-0.49; Phypertension within 5 years. Women with low plasma volume have higher chance to develop hypertension than women with normal plasma volume. Clinically, follow-up of blood pressure seems warranted in women with history of preeclampsia, even when initially normotensive. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

Atherosclerotic plaque volume and composition in symptomatic carotid arteries assessed with multidetector CT angiography; relationship with severity of stenosis and cardiovascular risk factors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rozie, S.; Weert, T.T. de; Monye, C. de; Homburg, P.J.; Tanghe, H.L.J.; Lugt, A. van der; Dippel, D.W.J.

2009-01-01

The purpose of this study was to examine the volume and the composition of atherosclerotic plaque in symptomatic carotid arteries and to investigate the relationship between these plaque features and the severity of stenosis and the presence of cardiovascular risk factors. One hundred patients with cerebrovascular symptoms underwent CT angiography. We measured plaque volume (PV) and the relative contribution of plaque components (calcifications, fibrous tissue, and lipid) in the symptomatic artery. The contribution of different components was measured as the number of voxels within defined ranges of HU values (calcification >130 HU, fibrous tissue 60-130 HU, lipid core <60 HU). Fifty-seven patients had atherosclerotic plaque in the symptomatic carotid artery. The severity of stenosis and PV were moderately correlated. Age and smoking were independently related to PV. Patients with hypercholesterolemia had significantly less lipid and more calcium in their plaques than patients without hypercholesterolemia. Other cardiovascular risk factors were not significantly related to PV or plaque composition. Luminal stenosis of the carotid artery partly reflects the amount of atherosclerotic carotid disease. Plaque volume and plaque composition are associated with cardiovascular risk factors. (orig.)

Atherosclerotic plaque volume and composition in symptomatic carotid arteries assessed with multidetector CT angiography; relationship with severity of stenosis and cardiovascular risk factors

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rozie, S.; Weert, T.T. de; Monye, C. de; Homburg, P.J.; Tanghe, H.L.J.; Lugt, A. van der [Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Departments of Radiology, Rotterdam (Netherlands); Dippel, D.W.J. [Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Department of Neurology, PO Box 2040, Rotterdam (Netherlands)

2009-09-15

The purpose of this study was to examine the volume and the composition of atherosclerotic plaque in symptomatic carotid arteries and to investigate the relationship between these plaque features and the severity of stenosis and the presence of cardiovascular risk factors. One hundred patients with cerebrovascular symptoms underwent CT angiography. We measured plaque volume (PV) and the relative contribution of plaque components (calcifications, fibrous tissue, and lipid) in the symptomatic artery. The contribution of different components was measured as the number of voxels within defined ranges of HU values (calcification >130 HU, fibrous tissue 60-130 HU, lipid core <60 HU). Fifty-seven patients had atherosclerotic plaque in the symptomatic carotid artery. The severity of stenosis and PV were moderately correlated. Age and smoking were independently related to PV. Patients with hypercholesterolemia had significantly less lipid and more calcium in their plaques than patients without hypercholesterolemia. Other cardiovascular risk factors were not significantly related to PV or plaque composition. Luminal stenosis of the carotid artery partly reflects the amount of atherosclerotic carotid disease. Plaque volume and plaque composition are associated with cardiovascular risk factors. (orig.)

Analysis of Phenomenels with Hydrologic Large Risk in the Hydrographic Basin of the Trotuş River

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Avram Mihaela

2017-10-01

Full Text Available The paper presents an analysis of the high hydrological risk phenomena formed in the hydrographic basin of the Trotuş River in the last period of time. The Trotuş River and the tributaries are monitored by 21 hydrometric stations. Precipitation volume processing indicated a number of risk factors that have prevailed over the last 20 years. The hydrological data processing revealed the presence of several flood flows in the same year. The effects of the floods have materialized through the excessive degradation of river bedside regulation and shore defence works. The floods of the past 25 years have resulted in the destruction of a large number of economic and social objectives in the Trotuş River area, as well as human losses. Parameters of hydroclimatic risk highlighted by research are represented by torrential precipitations, floods with high probability, high frequency of high-flow flows, formation of high erosion velocities of the bed, etc. Parameters of hydroclimatic risk impose special conditions for the design of river regularization and shore defence.

Revenue Risk Modelling and Assessment on BOT Highway Project

Science.gov (United States)

Novianti, T.; Setyawan, H. Y.

2018-01-01

The infrastructure project which is considered as a public-private partnership approach under BOT (Build-Operate-Transfer) arrangement, such as a highway, is risky. Therefore, assessment on risk factors is essential as the project have a concession period and is influenced by macroeconomic factors and consensus period. In this study, pre-construction risks of a highway were examined by using a Delphi method to create a space for offline expert discussions; a fault tree analysis to map intuition of experts and to create a model from the underlying risk events; a fuzzy logic to interpret the linguistic data of risk models. The loss of revenue for risk tariff, traffic volume, force majeure, and income were then measured. The results showed that the loss of revenue caused by the risk tariff was 10.5% of the normal total revenue. The loss of revenue caused by the risk of traffic volume was 21.0% of total revenue. The loss of revenue caused by the force majeure was 12.2% of the normal income. The loss of income caused by the non-revenue events was 6.9% of the normal revenue. It was also found that the volume of traffic was the major risk of a highway project because it related to customer preferences.

Finite volume analysis of temperature effects induced by active MRI implants: 2. Defects on active MRI implants causing hot spots

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Grönemeyer Dietrich HW

2006-05-01

worst case, points out that resonators with a small product of inductance volume and quality factor (Q Vind 3 are definitely save. Stents for coronary vessels or resonators used as tracking devices for interventional procedures therefore have no risk of high temperature increases. The finite volume analysis shows for sure that also conditions not close to the worst case reach physiologically critical temperature increases for implants with a large product of inductance volume and quality factor (Q Vind > 10 cm3. Such resonators exclude patients from exactly the MRI investigation these devices are made for.

Probabilistic risk assessment course documentation. Volume 7. Environmental transport and consequence analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ritchie, L.T.; Alpert, D.J.; Burke, R.P.; Ostmeyer, R.M.; Kaiser, G.D.; Runkle, G.E.; Woodard, K.

1985-08-01

Consequence models have been designed to assess health and economic risks from potential accidents at nuclear power plants. These models have been applied to an ever increasing variety of problems with ever increasing demands to improve modeling capabilities and provide greater realism. This course discusses the environmental transport of postulated radiological releases and the elements and purpose of accident consequence evaluation

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Food chain uncertainty assessment. Volume 2: Appendices

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brown, J. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands)] [and others

1997-06-01

This volume is the second of a two-volume document that summarizes a joint project by the US Nuclear Regulatory and the Commission of European Communities to assess uncertainties in the MACCS and COSYMA probabilistic accident consequence codes. These codes were developed primarily for estimating the risks presented by nuclear reactors based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. This two-volume report, which examines mechanisms and uncertainties of transfer through the food chain, is the first in a series of five such reports. A panel of sixteen experts was formed to compile credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for food chain transfer that affect calculations of offsite radiological consequences. Seven of the experts reported on transfer into the food chain through soil and plants, nine reported on transfer via food products from animals, and two reported on both. The expert judgment elicitation procedure and its outcomes are described in these volumes. This volume contains seven appendices. Appendix A presents a brief discussion of the MAACS and COSYMA model codes. Appendix B is the structure document and elicitation questionnaire for the expert panel on soils and plants. Appendix C presents the rationales and responses of each of the members of the soils and plants expert panel. Appendix D is the structure document and elicitation questionnaire for the expert panel on animal transfer. The rationales and responses of each of the experts on animal transfer are given in Appendix E. Brief biographies of the food chain expert panel members are provided in Appendix F. Aggregated results of expert responses are presented in graph format in Appendix G.

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Food chain uncertainty assessment. Volume 2: Appendices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brown, J.; Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.

1997-06-01

This volume is the second of a two-volume document that summarizes a joint project by the US Nuclear Regulatory and the Commission of European Communities to assess uncertainties in the MACCS and COSYMA probabilistic accident consequence codes. These codes were developed primarily for estimating the risks presented by nuclear reactors based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. This two-volume report, which examines mechanisms and uncertainties of transfer through the food chain, is the first in a series of five such reports. A panel of sixteen experts was formed to compile credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for food chain transfer that affect calculations of offsite radiological consequences. Seven of the experts reported on transfer into the food chain through soil and plants, nine reported on transfer via food products from animals, and two reported on both. The expert judgment elicitation procedure and its outcomes are described in these volumes. This volume contains seven appendices. Appendix A presents a brief discussion of the MAACS and COSYMA model codes. Appendix B is the structure document and elicitation questionnaire for the expert panel on soils and plants. Appendix C presents the rationales and responses of each of the members of the soils and plants expert panel. Appendix D is the structure document and elicitation questionnaire for the expert panel on animal transfer. The rationales and responses of each of the experts on animal transfer are given in Appendix E. Brief biographies of the food chain expert panel members are provided in Appendix F. Aggregated results of expert responses are presented in graph format in Appendix G

Three-Dimensional Echocardiography-Derived Non-Invasive Right Ventricular Pressure-Volume Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Kuan-Chih; Lin, Lian-Yu; Hwang, Juey-Jen; Lin, Lung-Chun

2017-09-01

In patients with pulmonary hypertension, repeated evaluations of right ventricular (RV) function are still required for clinical decision making, but the invasive nature of current pressure-volume analysis makes conducting regular follow-ups in a clinical setting infeasible. We enrolled 12 patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) and 10 with pulmonary venous hypertension (PVH) May 2016-October 2016. All patients underwent a clinically indicated right heart catheterization (RHC), from which the yielded right ventricular pressure recordings were conjugated with RV volume by 3-D echocardiography to generate a pressure-volume loop. A continuous-wave Doppler envelope of tricuspid regurgitation was transformed into a pressure gradient recording by the simplified Bernoulli equation, and then a systolic pressure gradient-volume (PG-V) diagram was generated from similar methods. The area enclosed by the pressure-volume loop was calculated to represent semi-invasive right ventricular stroke work (RVSW RHC ). The area between the PG-V diagram and x-axis was calculated to estimate non-invasive RVSW (RVSW echo ). Patients with PAH have higher RV pressure, lower pulmonary arterial wedge pressure and larger RV volume that was contributed by the dilation of RV mid-cavity minor dimension. We found no significant difference of traditional parameters between these two groups, but RVSW values were significantly higher in PAH patients. The RVSW values of these two methods were significantly correlated by the equation RVSW echo  = 0.8447 RVSW RHC  + 129.38 (R 2  = 0.9151, p rights reserved.

Cement Leakage in Percutaneous Vertebral Augmentation for Osteoporotic Vertebral Compression Fractures: Analysis of Risk Factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Xie, Weixing; Jin, Daxiang; Ma, Hui; Ding, Jinyong; Xu, Jixi; Zhang, Shuncong; Liang, De

2016-05-01

The risk factors for cement leakage were retrospectively reviewed in 192 patients who underwent percutaneous vertebral augmentation (PVA). To discuss the factors related to the cement leakage in PVA procedure for the treatment of osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures. PVA is widely applied for the treatment of osteoporotic vertebral fractures. Cement leakage is a major complication of this procedure. The risk factors for cement leakage were controversial. A retrospective review of 192 patients who underwent PVA was conducted. The following data were recorded: age, sex, bone density, number of fractured vertebrae before surgery, number of treated vertebrae, severity of the treated vertebrae, operative approach, volume of injected bone cement, preoperative vertebral compression ratio, preoperative local kyphosis angle, intraosseous clefts, preoperative vertebral cortical bone defect, and ratio and type of cement leakage. To study the correlation between each factor and cement leakage ratio, bivariate regression analysis was employed to perform univariate analysis, whereas multivariate linear regression analysis was employed to perform multivariate analysis. The study included 192 patients (282 treated vertebrae), and cement leakage occurred in 100 vertebrae (35.46%). The vertebrae with preoperative cortical bone defects generally exhibited higher cement leakage ratio, and the leakage is typically type C. Vertebrae with intact cortical bones before the procedure tend to experience type S leakage. Univariate analysis showed that patient age, bone density, number of fractured vertebrae before surgery, and vertebral cortical bone were associated with cement leakage ratio (Pcement leakage are bone density and vertebral cortical bone defect, with standardized partial regression coefficients of -0.085 and 0.144, respectively. High bone density and vertebral cortical bone defect are independent risk factors associated with bone cement leakage.

Characterizing Tumor Heterogeneity With Functional Imaging and Quantifying High-Risk Tumor Volume for Early Prediction of Treatment Outcome: Cervical Cancer as a Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mayr, Nina A., E-mail: Nina.Mayr@osumc.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH (United States); Huang Zhibin [Department of Radiation Oncology and Department of Physics, East Carolina University, Greenville, NC (United States); Wang, Jian Z. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH (United States); Lo, Simon S. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, OH (United States); Fan, Joline M. [Department of Molecular Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA (United States); Grecula, John C. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH (United States); Sammet, Steffen [Department of Radiology, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL (United States); Department of Radiology, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH (United States); Sammet, Christina L. [Department of Radiology, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL (United States); Jia Guang; Zhang Jun; Knopp, Michael V.; Yuh, William T.C. [Department of Radiology, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH (United States)

2012-07-01

Purpose: Treatment response in cancer has been monitored by measuring anatomic tumor volume (ATV) at various times without considering the inherent functional tumor heterogeneity known to critically influence ultimate treatment outcome: primary tumor control and survival. This study applied dynamic contrast-enhanced (DCE) functional MRI to characterize tumors' heterogeneous subregions with low DCE values, at risk for treatment failure, and to quantify the functional risk volume (FRV) for personalized early prediction of treatment outcome. Methods and Materials: DCE-MRI was performed in 102 stage IB{sub 2}-IVA cervical cancer patients to assess tumor perfusion heterogeneity before and during radiation/chemotherapy. FRV represents the total volume of tumor voxels with critically low DCE signal intensity (<2.1 compared with precontrast image, determined by previous receiver operator characteristic analysis). FRVs were correlated with treatment outcome (follow-up: 0.2-9.4, mean 6.8 years) and compared with ATVs (Mann-Whitney, Kaplan-Meier, and multivariate analyses). Results: Before and during therapy at 2-2.5 and 4-5 weeks of RT, FRVs >20, >13, and >5 cm{sup 3}, respectively, significantly predicted unfavorable 6-year primary tumor control (p = 0.003, 7.3 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup -8}, 2.0 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup -8}) and disease-specific survival (p = 1.9 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup -4}, 2.1 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup -6}, 2.5 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup -7}, respectively). The FRVs were superior to the ATVs as early predictors of outcome, and the differentiating power of FRVs increased during treatment. Discussion: Our preliminary results suggest that functional tumor heterogeneity can be characterized by DCE-MRI to quantify FRV for predicting ultimate long-term treatment outcome. FRV is a novel functional imaging heterogeneity parameter, superior to ATV, and can be clinically translated for personalized early outcome prediction before or as early as 2

Perception and acceptance of technological risk sources. Vol. 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Renn, O.

1981-01-01

Volume II presents a comparative investigation of risk perception and acceptance. It contains the evaluations of the two experiments in social psychology and the analysis of two intensive enquiries concerning risk perception with a view to 12 different risk sources. The data of the two enquiries were acquired from a total of 200 interview partners in two cities in North-Rhine Westphalia. (orig./HP) [de

RISK ANALYSIS APPLIED IN OIL EXPLORATION AND PRODUCTION

African Journals Online (AJOL)

ES Obe

aDepartment of Civil Engineering, University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Enugu State, Nigeria. ... The analysis in this work is ... risk analysis, oil field, risk management, projects, investment opportunity. 1. .... own merit but since the company has limited.

Frequency Domain Computer Programs for Prediction and Analysis of Rail Vehicle Dynamics : Volume 1. Technical Report

Science.gov (United States)

1975-12-01

Frequency domain computer programs developed or acquired by TSC for the analysis of rail vehicle dynamics are described in two volumes. Volume I defines the general analytical capabilities required for computer programs applicable to single rail vehi...

Dose–Volume Relationships Associated With Temporal Lobe Radiation Necrosis After Skull Base Proton Beam Therapy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

McDonald, Mark W., E-mail: markmcdonaldmd@gmail.com [Department of Radiation Oncology, Indiana University School of Medicine, Indianapolis, Indiana (United States); Indiana University Health Proton Therapy Center, Bloomington, Indiana (United States); Linton, Okechukwu R. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Indiana University School of Medicine, Indianapolis, Indiana (United States); Calley, Cynthia S.J. [Department of Biostatistics, Indiana University School of Medicine, Indianapolis, Indiana (United States)

2015-02-01

Purpose: We evaluated patient and treatment parameters correlated with development of temporal lobe radiation necrosis. Methods and Materials: This was a retrospective analysis of a cohort of 66 patients treated for skull base chordoma, chondrosarcoma, adenoid cystic carcinoma, or sinonasal malignancies between 2005 and 2012, who had at least 6 months of clinical and radiographic follow-up. The median radiation dose was 75.6 Gy (relative biological effectiveness [RBE]). Analyzed factors included gender, age, hypertension, diabetes, smoking status, use of chemotherapy, and the absolute dose:volume data for both the right and left temporal lobes, considered separately. A generalized estimating equation (GEE) regression analysis evaluated potential predictors of radiation necrosis, and the median effective concentration (EC50) model estimated dose–volume parameters associated with radiation necrosis. Results: Median follow-up time was 31 months (range 6-96 months) and was 34 months in patients who were alive. The Kaplan-Meier estimate of overall survival at 3 years was 84.9%. The 3-year estimate of any grade temporal lobe radiation necrosis was 12.4%, and for grade 2 or higher radiation necrosis was 5.7%. On multivariate GEE, only dose–volume relationships were associated with the risk of radiation necrosis. In the EC50 model, all dose levels from 10 to 70 Gy (RBE) were highly correlated with radiation necrosis, with a 15% 3-year risk of any-grade temporal lobe radiation necrosis when the absolute volume of a temporal lobe receiving 60 Gy (RBE) (aV60) exceeded 5.5 cm{sup 3}, or aV70 > 1.7 cm{sup 3}. Conclusions: Dose–volume parameters are highly correlated with the risk of developing temporal lobe radiation necrosis. In this study the risk of radiation necrosis increased sharply when the temporal lobe aV60 exceeded 5.5 cm{sup 3} or aV70 > 1.7 cm{sup 3}. Treatment planning goals should include constraints on the volume of temporal lobes receiving

Intensity-Modulated Radiation Therapy in Oropharyngeal Carcinoma: Effect of Tumor Volume on Clinical Outcomes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lok, Benjamin H.; Setton, Jeremy; Caria, Nicola; Romanyshyn, Jonathan; Wolden, Suzanne L.; Zelefsky, Michael J.; Park, Jeffery; Rowan, Nicholas; Sherman, Eric J.; Fury, Matthew G.; Ho, Alan; Pfister, David G.; Wong, Richard J.; Shah, Jatin P.; Kraus, Dennis H.; Zhang, Zhigang; Schupak, Karen D.; Gelblum, Daphna Y.; Rao, Shyam D.; Lee, Nancy Y.

2012-01-01

Purpose: To analyze the effect of primary gross tumor volume (pGTV) and nodal gross tumor volume (nGTV) on treatment outcomes in patients treated with definitive intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) for oropharyngeal cancer (OPC). Methods and Materials: Between September 1998 and April 2009, a total of 442 patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the oropharynx were treated with IMRT with curative intent at our center. Thirty patients treated postoperatively and 2 additional patients who started treatment more than 6 months after diagnosis were excluded. A total of 340 patients with restorable treatment plans were included in this present study. The majority of the patients underwent concurrent platinum-based chemotherapy. The pGTV and nGTV were calculated using the original clinical treatment plans. Cox proportional hazards models and log-rank tests were used to evaluate the correlation between tumor volumes and overall survival (OS), and competing risks analysis tools were used to evaluate the correlation between local failure (LF), regional failure (RF), distant metastatic failure (DMF) vs. tumor volumes with death as a competing risk. Results: Median follow-up among surviving patients was 34 months (range, 5-67). The 2-year cumulative incidence of LF, RF and DF in this cohort of patients was 6.1%, 5.2%, and 12.2%, respectively. The 2-year OS rate was 88.6%. Univariate analysis determined pGTV and T-stage correlated with LF (p < 0.0001 and p = 0.004, respectively), whereas nGTV was not associated with RF. On multivariate analysis, pGTV and N-stage were independent risk factors for overall survival (p = 0.0003 and p = 0.0073, respectively) and distant control (p = 0.0008 and p = 0.002, respectively). Conclusions: In this cohort of patients with OPC treated with IMRT, pGTV was found to be associated with overall survival, local failure, and distant metastatic failure.

Cyber Risk Management for Critical Infrastructure: A Risk Analysis Model and Three Case Studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Paté-Cornell, M-Elisabeth; Kuypers, Marshall; Smith, Matthew; Keller, Philip

2018-02-01

Managing cyber security in an organization involves allocating the protection budget across a spectrum of possible options. This requires assessing the benefits and the costs of these options. The risk analyses presented here are statistical when relevant data are available, and system-based for high-consequence events that have not happened yet. This article presents, first, a general probabilistic risk analysis framework for cyber security in an organization to be specified. It then describes three examples of forward-looking analyses motivated by recent cyber attacks. The first one is the statistical analysis of an actual database, extended at the upper end of the loss distribution by a Bayesian analysis of possible, high-consequence attack scenarios that may happen in the future. The second is a systems analysis of cyber risks for a smart, connected electric grid, showing that there is an optimal level of connectivity. The third is an analysis of sequential decisions to upgrade the software of an existing cyber security system or to adopt a new one to stay ahead of adversaries trying to find their way in. The results are distributions of losses to cyber attacks, with and without some considered countermeasures in support of risk management decisions based both on past data and anticipated incidents. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Urban flooding and health risk analysis by use of quantitative microbial risk assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Signe Tanja

D thesis is to identify the limitations and possibilities for optimising microbial risk assessments of urban flooding through more evidence-based solutions, including quantitative microbial data and hydrodynamic water quality models. The focus falls especially on the problem of data needs and the causes......, but also when wading through a flooded area. The results in this thesis have brought microbial risk assessments one step closer to more uniform and repeatable risk analysis by using actual and relevant measured data and hydrodynamic water quality models to estimate the risk from flooding caused...... are expected to increase in the future. To ensure public health during extreme rainfall, solutions are needed, but limited knowledge on microbial water quality, and related health risks, makes it difficult to implement microbial risk analysis as a part of the basis for decision making. The main aim of this Ph...

Sample volume and alignment analysis for an optical particle counter sizer, and other applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Holve, D.J.; Davis, G.W.

1985-01-01

Optical methods for particle size distribution measurements in practical high temperature environments are approaching feasibility and offer significant advantages over conventional sampling methods. A key requirement of single particle counting techniques is the need to know features of the sample volume intensity distribution which in general are a function of the particle scattering properties and optical system geometry. In addition, the sample volume intensity distribution is sensitive to system alignment and thus calculations of alignment sensitivity are required for assessment of practical alignment tolerances. To this end, an analysis of sample volume characteristics for single particle counters in general has been developed. Results from the theory are compared with experimental measurements and shown to be in good agreement. A parametric sensitivity analysis is performed and a criterion for allowable optical misalignment is derived for conditions where beam steering caused by fluctuating refractive-index gradients is significant

Modeling the risk: innovative approaches to understand and quantify the risk of severe FB injury.

Science.gov (United States)

Berchialla, Paola; Bellussi, Luisa; Castella, Annalisa; Snidero, Silvia; Passali, Desiderio; Gregori, Dario

2012-05-14

The entry of a small item into the respiratory or digestive tract is still one of the leading causes of injuries in children up to 14 years old. The aim of the paper is to provide a quantitative risk assessment analysis for identifying consumer product features which contribute to increase the risk of sustaining a severe injury. Data on foreign body injuries were collected in 28 European countries and one Pakistani hospital. A total of 7296 cases were classified according to ICD-9CM 931-935. Information about injuries included age and gender of the injured child, circumstances of the accident and foreign body features. A classification tree was set up in order to analyze the impact of the item features like volume shape and rigidity on the severity of the injury. Males are involved in severe injuries more often than females. Most severe injuries when the foreign body is localized in the ears were due to objects with volume lesser than 49 mm(3). Volume cut-off is slightly higher for foreign bodies that have been found in the nose (55 mm(3)). Objects with conforming rigidity pose children to higher risk of severe injury. The presence and supervision of an adult is crucial in reducing the risk for severe injuries both in pharynx and laryhnx and in mouth. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic risk analysis in chemical engineering

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schmalz, F.

1991-01-01

In risk analysis in the chemical industry, recognising potential risks is considered more important than assessing their quantitative extent. Even in assessing risks, emphasis is not on the probability involved but on the possible extent. Qualitative assessment has proved valuable here. Probabilistic methods are used in individual cases where the wide implications make it essential to be able to assess the reliability of safety precautions. In this case, assessment therefore centres on the reliability of technical systems and not on the extent of a chemical risk. 7 figs

Method for environmental risk analysis (MIRA) revision 2007

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2007-04-01

OLF's instruction manual for carrying out environmental risk analyses provides a united approach and a common framework for environmental risk assessments. This is based on the best information available. The manual implies standardizations of a series of parameters, input data and partial analyses that are included in the environmental risk analysis. Environmental risk analyses carried out according to the MIRA method will thus be comparable between fields and between companies. In this revision an update of the text in accordance with today's practice for environmental risk analyses and prevailing regulations is emphasized. Moreover, method adjustments for especially protected beach habitats have been introduced, as well as a general method for estimating environmental risk concerning fish. Emphasis has also been put on improving environmental risk analysis' possibilities to contribute to a better management of environmental risk in the companies (ml)

County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 17 Appendix P - Forecast Soil Moisture

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

2017-04-01

This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 26 Appendix Y - Historical Ridging Rate.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lowry, Thomas Stephen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jones, Shannon M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Walker, La Tonya Nicole [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Roberts, Barry L. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Malczynski, Leonard A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2017-05-01

This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 27 Appendix Z - Forecast Ridging Rate.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

2017-06-01

This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 14 Appendix M - Historical Surface Runoff.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

2017-06-01

This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 12 Appendix K - Historical Rel. Humidity.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

2017-06-01

This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 16 Appendix O - Historical Soil Moisture.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

2017-06-01

This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 15 Appendix N - Forecast Surface Runoff.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lowry, Thomas Stephen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jones, Shannon M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Walker, La Tonya Nicole [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Roberts, Barry L. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Malczynski, Leonard A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2017-05-01

This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

Econometrics of risk

CERN Document Server

Kreinovich, Vladik; Sriboonchitta, Songsak; Suriya, Komsan

2015-01-01

This edited book contains several state-of-the-art papers devoted to econometrics of risk. Some papers provide theoretical analysis of the corresponding mathematical, statistical, computational, and economical models. Other papers describe applications of the novel risk-related econometric techniques to real-life economic situations. The book presents new methods developed just recently, in particular, methods using non-Gaussian heavy-tailed distributions, methods using non-Gaussian copulas to properly take into account dependence between different quantities, methods taking into account imprecise ("fuzzy") expert knowledge, and many other innovative techniques. This versatile volume helps practitioners to learn how to apply new techniques of econometrics of risk, and researchers to further improve the existing models and to come up with new ideas on how to best take into account economic risks.

Energy perspectives 2035 - Volume 4, side-notes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2007-01-01

This comprehensive report published by the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) presents a number of side-notes pertaining to the first three volumes of the Energy Perspectives series of reports. Various topics are discussed by the authors of the first three volumes of the perspectives in the meetings held by the Energy Perspectives Working Group. The sixteen side-notes presented here cover the following topics: General conditions, fossil resources, the influence of climate warming, CO 2 emissions trading (Joint Implementation JI and Clean Development Mechanism CDM), definition of potentials, air traffic, imported renewable electricity, hydro power, electricity cost calculation, sensitivity analysis of centralised power production facilities, heat-pumps and their power consumption, cold spells and heat-waves, risk and its perception, the 2000-Watt society and international and national energy perspectives

Evaluating the risks of clinical research: direct comparative analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Rid, Annette; Abdoler, Emily; Roberson-Nay, Roxann; Pine, Daniel S; Wendler, David

2014-09-01

Many guidelines and regulations allow children and adolescents to be enrolled in research without the prospect of clinical benefit when it poses minimal risk. However, few systematic methods exist to determine when research risks are minimal. This situation has led to significant variation in minimal risk judgments, raising concern that some children are not being adequately protected. To address this concern, we describe a new method for implementing the widely endorsed "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk. This standard defines research risks as minimal when they do not exceed the risks posed by daily life activities or routine examinations. This study employed a conceptual and normative analysis, and use of an illustrative example. Different risks are composed of the same basic elements: Type, likelihood, and magnitude of harm. Hence, one can compare the risks of research and the risks of daily life by comparing the respective basic elements with each other. We use this insight to develop a systematic method, direct comparative analysis, for implementing the "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk. The method offers a way of evaluating research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities, such as the risk of experiencing anxiety, stress, or other psychological harm. We thus illustrate how direct comparative analysis can be applied in practice by using it to evaluate whether the anxiety induced by a respiratory CO2 challenge poses minimal or greater than minimal risks in children and adolescents. Direct comparative analysis is a systematic method for applying the "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk to research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities. It thereby offers a method to protect children and adolescents in research, while ensuring that important studies are not blocked because of unwarranted concerns about research risks.

Thermoeconomic analysis of storage systems for solar heating and cooling systems: A comparison between variable-volume and fixed-volume tanks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Buonomano, Annamaria; Calise, Francesco; Ferruzzi, Gabriele

2013-01-01

The paper investigates different control strategies for the thermal storage management in SHC (Solar Heating and Cooling) systems. The SHC system under investigation is based on a field of evacuated solar collectors coupled with a single-stage LiBr–H 2 O absorption chiller; auxiliary thermal energy is supplied by a gas-fired boiler. The SHC is also equipped with a novel thermal storage system, consisting in a variable volume storage tank. It includes three separate tanks and a number of mixers and diverters managed by novel control strategies, based on combinations of series/parallel charging and discharging approaches. The aim of this component is to vary the thermal storage capacity as a function of the combinations of solar radiation availability and user thermal/cooling energy demands. The system allows one to increase the number of active tanks when the time shift between solar energy and user demand is high. Conversely, when this time shift is low, the number of active tanks is automatically reduced. In addition, when the solar energy in excess cannot be stored in such tanks, a heat exchanger is also used in the solar loop for producing DHW (Domestic Hot Water). The analysis is carried out by means of a zero-dimensional transient simulation model, developed by using the TRNSYS software. In order to assess the operating and capital costs of the systems under analysis, an economic model is also proposed. In addition, in order to determine the set of the synthesis/design variables which maximize the system profitability, a parametric analysis was implemented. The novel variable-volume storage system, in both the proposed configurations, was also compared with a constant-volume storage system from the energy and economic points of view. The results showed that the presented storage system allows one to save up to 20% of the natural gas used by the auxiliary boiler only for very high solar fractions. In all the other cases, marginal savings are achieved by the

Risk Analysis for Unintentional Slide Deployment During Airline Operations.

Science.gov (United States)

Ayra, Eduardo S; Insua, David Ríos; Castellanos, María Eugenia; Larbi, Lydia

2015-09-01

We present a risk analysis undertaken to mitigate problems in relation to the unintended deployment of slides under normal operations within a commercial airline. This type of incident entails relevant costs for the airline industry. After assessing the likelihood and severity of its consequences, we conclude that such risks need to be managed. We then evaluate the effectiveness of various countermeasures, describing and justifying the chosen ones. We also discuss several issues faced when implementing and communicating the proposed measures, thus fully illustrating the risk analysis process. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Progressive Decline in Hippocampal CA1 Volume in Individuals at Ultra-High-Risk for Psychosis Who Do Not Remit: Findings from the Longitudinal Youth at Risk Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Ho, New Fei; Holt, Daphne J; Cheung, Mike; Iglesias, Juan Eugenio; Goh, Alex; Wang, Mingyuan; Lim, Joseph Kw; de Souza, Joshua; Poh, Joann S; See, Yuen Mei; Adcock, Alison R; Wood, Stephen J; Chee, Michael Wl; Lee, Jimmy; Zhou, Juan

2017-05-01

Most individuals identified as ultra-high-risk (UHR) for psychosis do not develop frank psychosis. They continue to exhibit subthreshold symptoms, or go on to fully remit. Prior work has shown that the volume of CA1, a subfield of the hippocampus, is selectively reduced in the early stages of schizophrenia. Here we aimed to determine whether patterns of volume change of CA1 are different in UHR individuals who do or do not achieve symptomatic remission. Structural MRI scans were acquired at baseline and at 1-2 follow-up time points (at 12-month intervals) from 147 UHR and healthy control subjects. An automated method (based on an ex vivo atlas of ultra-high-resolution hippocampal tissue) was used to delineate the hippocampal subfields. Over time, a greater decline in bilateral CA1 subfield volumes was found in the subgroup of UHR subjects whose subthreshold symptoms persisted (n=40) and also those who developed clinical psychosis (n=12), compared with UHR subjects who remitted (n=41) and healthy controls (n=54). No baseline differences in volumes of the overall hippocampus or its subfields were found among the groups. Moreover, the rate of volume decline of CA1, but not of other hippocampal subfields, in the non-remitters was associated with increasing symptom severity over time. Thus, these findings indicate that there is deterioration of CA1 volume in persistently symptomatic UHR individuals in proportion to symptomatic progression.

Study of the Utah uranium-milling industry. Volume I. A policy analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Turley, R.E.

1980-05-01

This is the first volume of a two volume study of the Utah Uranium Milling Industry. The study was precipitated by a 1977 report issued by the Western Interstate Nuclear Board entitled Policy Recommendations on Financing Stabilization. Perpetual Surveillance and Maintenance of Uranium Mill Tailings. Volume I of this study is a policy analysis or technology assessment of the uranium milling industry in the state of Utah; specifically, the study addresses issues that deal with the perpetual surveillance, monitoring, and maintenance of uranium tailings piles at the end of uranium milling operations, i.e., following shutdown and decommissioning. Volume II of this report serves somewhat as an appendix. It represents a full description of the uranium industry in the state of Utah, including its history and statements regarding its future. The topics covered in volume I are as follows: today's uranium industry in Utah; management of the industry's characteristic nuclear radiation; uranium mill licensing and regulation; state licensing and regulation of uranium mills; forecast of future milling operations; policy needs relative to perpetual surveillance, monitoring, and maintenance of tailings; policy needs relative to perpetual oversight; economic aspects; state revenue from uranium; and summary with conclusions and recommendations. Appendices, figures and tables are also presented

Report of a CSNI workshop on uncertainty analysis methods. Volume 1 + 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wickett, A.J.; Yadigaroglu, G.

1994-08-01

The OECD NEA CSNI Principal Working Group 2 (PWG2) Task Group on Thermal Hydraulic System Behaviour (TGTHSB) has, in recent years, received presentations of a variety of different methods to analyze the uncertainty in the calculations of advanced unbiased (best estimate) codes. Proposals were also made for an International Standard Problem (ISP) to compare the uncertainty analysis methods. The objectives for the Workshop were to discuss and fully understand the principles of uncertainty analysis relevant to LOCA modelling and like problems, to examine the underlying issues from first principles, in preference to comparing and contrasting the currently proposed methods, to reach consensus on the issues identified as far as possible while not avoiding the controversial aspects, to identify as clearly as possible unreconciled differences, and to issue a Status Report. Eight uncertainty analysis methods were presented. A structured discussion of various aspects of uncertainty analysis followed - the need for uncertainty analysis, identification and ranking of uncertainties, characterisation, quantification and combination of uncertainties and applications, resources and future developments. As a result, the objectives set out above were, to a very large extent, achieved. Plans for the ISP were also discussed. Volume 1 contains a record of the discussions on uncertainty methods. Volume 2 is a compilation of descriptions of the eight uncertainty analysis methods presented at the workshop

Time series analysis of brain regional volume by MR image

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tanaka, Mika; Tarusawa, Ayaka; Nihei, Mitsuyo; Fukami, Tadanori; Yuasa, Tetsuya; Wu, Jin; Ishiwata, Kiichi; Ishii, Kenji

2010-01-01

The present study proposed a methodology of time series analysis of volumes of frontal, parietal, temporal and occipital lobes and cerebellum because such volumetric reports along the process of individual's aging have been scarcely presented. Subjects analyzed were brain images of 2 healthy males and 18 females of av. age of 69.0 y, of which T1-weighted 3D SPGR (spoiled gradient recalled in the steady state) acquisitions with a GE SIGNA EXCITE HD 1.5T machine were conducted for 4 times in the time series of 42-50 months. The image size was 256 x 256 x (86-124) voxels with digitization level 16 bits. As the template for the regions, the standard gray matter atlas (icbn452 a tlas p robability g ray) and its labeled one (icbn.Labels), provided by UCLA Laboratory of Neuro Imaging, were used for individual's standardization. Segmentation, normalization and coregistration were performed with the MR imaging software SPM8 (Statistic Parametric Mapping 8). Volumes of regions were calculated as their voxel ratio to the whole brain voxel in percent. It was found that the regional volumes decreased with aging in all above lobes examined and cerebellum in average percent per year of -0.11, -0.07, -0.04, -0.02, and -0.03, respectively. The procedure for calculation of the regional volumes, which has been manually operated hitherto, can be automatically conducted for the individual brain using the standard atlases above. (T.T.)

Blood volume studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lewis, S.M.; Yin, J.A.L.

1986-01-01

The use of dilution analysis with such radioisotopes as 51 Cr, 32 P, sup(99m)Tc and sup(113m)In for measuring red cell volume is reviewed briefly. The use of 125 I and 131 I for plasma volume studies is also considered and the subsequent determination of total blood volume discussed, together with the role of the splenic red cell volume. Substantial bibliography. (UK)

Mare Risk Analysis monitor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fuente Prieto, I.; Alonso, P.; Carretero Fernandino, J. A.

2000-01-01

The Nuclear Safety Council's requirement that Spanish power plants comply with the requirements of the Maintenance Rule associated with plant risk assessment during power operation, arising from the partial unavailability of systems due to the maintenance activities, has led to need for additional tools to facilitate compliance with said requirements. While the impact on risk produced by individual equipment unavailabilities can easily be evaluated, either qualitatively or quantitatively, the process becomes more complicated when un programmed unavailabilities simultaneously occur in various systems, making it necessary to evaluate their functional impact. It is especially complex in the case of support systems that can affect the functionality of multiple systems. In view of the above, a computer application has been developed that is capable of providing the operator with quick answers based on the specific plant model in order to allow fast risk assessment using the information compiled as part of the Probabilistic Safety Analysis. The paper describes the most important characteristics of this application and the basic design requirements of the MARE Risk Monitor. (Author)

SOLVENT-BASED TO WATERBASED ADHESIVE-COATED SUBSTRATE RETROFIT - VOLUME I: COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS

Science.gov (United States)

This volume represents the analysis of case study facilities' experience with waterbased adhesive use and retrofit requirements. (NOTE: The coated and laminated substrate manufacturing industry was selected as part of NRMRL'S support of the 33/50 Program because of its significan...

Design and Development of Virtual Reality Simulation for Teaching High-Risk Low-Volume Problem-Prone Office-Based Medical Emergencies

Science.gov (United States)

Lemheney, Alexander J.

2014-01-01

Physicians' offices are not the usual place where emergencies occur; thus how staff remains prepared and current regarding medical emergencies presents an ongoing challenge for private practitioners. The very nature of low-volume, high-risk, and problem-prone medical emergencies is that they occur with such infrequency it is difficult for staff to…

Stratal Control Volumes and Stratal Control Trajectories: A New Method to Constrain, Understand and Reconcile Results from Stratigraphic Outcrop Analysis, Subsurface Analysis and Analogue and Numerical Modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Burgess, P. M.; Steel, R. J.

2016-12-01

Decoding a history of Earth's surface dynamics from strata requires robust quantitative understanding of supply and accommodation controls. The concept of stratigraphic solution sets has proven useful in this decoding, but application and development of this approach has so far been surprisingly limited. Stratal control volumes, areas and trajectories are new approaches defined here, building on previous ideas about stratigraphic solution sets, to help analyse and understand the sedimentary record of Earth surface dynamics. They may have particular application reconciling results from outcrop and subsurface analysis with results from analogue and numerical experiments. Stratal control volumes are sets of points in a three-dimensional volume, with axes of subsidence, sediment supply and eustatic rates of change, populated with probabilities derived from analysis of subsidence, supply and eustasy timeseries (Figure 1). These empirical probabilities indicate the likelihood of occurrence of any particular combination of control rates defined by any point in the volume. The stratal control volume can then by analysed to determine which parts of the volume represent relative sea-level fall and rise, where in the volume particular stacking patterns will occur, and how probable those stacking patterns are. For outcrop and subsurface analysis, using a stratal control area with eustasy and subsidence combined on a relative sea-level axis allows similar analysis, and may be preferable. A stratal control trajectory is a history of supply and accommodation creation rates, interpreted from outcrop or subsurface data, or observed in analogue and numerical experiments, and plotted as a series of linked points forming a trajectory through the stratal control volume (Figure 1) or area. Three examples are presented, one from outcrop and two theoretical. Much work remains to be done to build a properly representative database of stratal controls, but careful comparison of stratal

Community Documentation Centre on Industrial Risk. Volume 3 (consolidated volume containing also content of vol. 1 and 2)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1990-09-01

The Directorate-General for Environment, Nuclear Safety and Civil Protection of the Commission of the European Communities is responsible for the effective and harmonized implementation of the Directive 82/501/EEC on the major-accident hazards of certain industrial activities. To this end, the Commission, in collaboration with the Committee of Competent Authorities responsible for the implementation of this Directive in the twelve Member States, carries out a whole range of activities. One of the most essential areas for action identified was the need for a systematic diffusion of information concerning the practical implementation of the Directive in the Member States, including the technical rules and guidelines applied, the safety practices and the lessons learnt from major accidents. Therefore, the Commission decided to set up a Community Documentation Centre on Industrial Risks (CDCIR). This Documentation Centre is run by the European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Systems Engineering and Informatics (ISEI), at Ispra, Italy, among its support activities on the implementation of the Directive. The Documentation Centre will collect, classify and review technical rules, guidelines and documents concerning the requirements of the Directive, as well as the safety of industrial installations produced by governments, administrative, scientific or technical bodies, national or international organizations and industrial or professional associations. Documents on major accidents in the form of reports, videotapes will also be collected and reviewed. The Centre is accessible to interested visitors, documents which are not covered by copyright and are not restricted can be obtained from the Documentation Centre on request. Periodical volumes which will feature the inventory, including abstracts, of the collected material will be published and made available to all interested parties. The Centre will also publish documents devoted to compare existing

Bayesian-network-based safety risk analysis in construction projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Limao; Wu, Xianguo; Skibniewski, Miroslaw J.; Zhong, Jingbing; Lu, Yujie

2014-01-01

This paper presents a systemic decision support approach for safety risk analysis under uncertainty in tunnel construction. Fuzzy Bayesian Networks (FBN) is used to investigate causal relationships between tunnel-induced damage and its influential variables based upon the risk/hazard mechanism analysis. Aiming to overcome limitations on the current probability estimation, an expert confidence indicator is proposed to ensure the reliability of the surveyed data for fuzzy probability assessment of basic risk factors. A detailed fuzzy-based inference procedure is developed, which has a capacity of implementing deductive reasoning, sensitivity analysis and abductive reasoning. The “3σ criterion” is adopted to calculate the characteristic values of a triangular fuzzy number in the probability fuzzification process, and the α-weighted valuation method is adopted for defuzzification. The construction safety analysis progress is extended to the entire life cycle of risk-prone events, including the pre-accident, during-construction continuous and post-accident control. A typical hazard concerning the tunnel leakage in the construction of Wuhan Yangtze Metro Tunnel in China is presented as a case study, in order to verify the applicability of the proposed approach. The results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed approach and its application potential. A comparison of advantages and disadvantages between FBN and fuzzy fault tree analysis (FFTA) as risk analysis tools is also conducted. The proposed approach can be used to provide guidelines for safety analysis and management in construction projects, and thus increase the likelihood of a successful project in a complex environment. - Highlights: • A systemic Bayesian network based approach for safety risk analysis is developed. • An expert confidence indicator for probability fuzzification is proposed. • Safety risk analysis progress is extended to entire life cycle of risk-prone events. • A typical

On the validation of risk analysis-A commentary

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rosqvist, Tony

2010-01-01

Aven and Heide (2009) [1] provided interesting views on the reliability and validation of risk analysis. The four validation criteria presented are contrasted with modelling features related to the relative frequency-based and Bayesian approaches to risk analysis. In this commentary I would like to bring forth some issues on validation that partly confirm and partly suggest changes in the interpretation of the introduced validation criteria-especially, in the context of low probability-high consequence systems. The mental model of an expert in assessing probabilities is argued to be a key notion in understanding the validation of a risk analysis.

Quantitative risk assessment using the capacity-demand analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morgenroth, M.; Donnelly, C.R.; Westermann, G.D.; Huang, J.H.S.; Lam, T.M.

1999-01-01

The hydroelectric industry's recognition of the importance of avoiding unexpected failure, or forced outages, led to the development of probabilistic, or risk-based, methods in order to attempt to quantify exposures. Traditionally, such analysis has been carried out by qualitative assessments, relying on experience and sound engineering judgment to determine the optimum time to maintain, repair or replace a part or system. Depending on the nature of the problem, however, and the level of experience of those included in the decision making process, it is difficult to find a balance between acting proactively and accepting some amount of risk. The development of a practical means for establishing the probability of failure of any part or system, based on the determination of the statistical distribution of engineering properties such as acting stresses, is discussed. The capacity-demand analysis methodology, coupled with probablistic, risk-based analysis, permits all the factors associated with a decision to rehabilitate or replace a part, including the risks associated with the timing of the decision, to be assessed in a transparent and defendable manner. The methodology does not eliminate judgment altogether, but does move it from the level of estimating the risk of failure to the lower level of estimating variability in material properties, uncertainty in loading, and the uncertainties inherent in any engineering analysis. The method was successfully used in 1998 to carry out a comprehensive, economic risk analysis for the entire water conveyance system of a 90 year old hydropower station. The analysis included a number of diverse parts ranging from rock slopes and aging steel and concrete conduits, and the method allowed a rational assessment of the risks associated with reach of these varied parts to be determined, permitting the essential remedial works to be prioritized. 14 refs., 4 figs

Risk-based systems analysis of emerging high-level waste tank remediation technologies. Volume 2: Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peters, B.B.; Cameron, R.J.; McCormack, W.D.

1994-08-01

The objective of DOE's Radioactive Waste Tank Remediation Technology Focus Area is to identify and develop new technologies that will reduce the risk and/or cost of remediating DOE underground waste storage tanks and tank contents. There are, however, many more technology investment opportunities than the current budget can support. Current technology development selection methods evaluate new technologies in isolation from other components of an overall tank waste remediation system. This report describes a System Analysis Model developed under the US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Technology Development (OTD) Underground Storage Tank-Integrated Demonstration (UST-ID) program. The report identifies the project objectives and provides a description of the model. Development of the first ''demonstration'' version of this model and a trial application have been completed and the results are presented. This model will continue to evolve as it undergoes additional user review and testing

Risk-based systems analysis of emerging high-level waste tank remediation technologies. Volume 2: Final report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Peters, B.B.; Cameron, R.J.; McCormack, W.D. [Enserch Environmental Corp., Richland, WA (United States)

1994-08-01

The objective of DOE`s Radioactive Waste Tank Remediation Technology Focus Area is to identify and develop new technologies that will reduce the risk and/or cost of remediating DOE underground waste storage tanks and tank contents. There are, however, many more technology investment opportunities than the current budget can support. Current technology development selection methods evaluate new technologies in isolation from other components of an overall tank waste remediation system. This report describes a System Analysis Model developed under the US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Technology Development (OTD) Underground Storage Tank-Integrated Demonstration (UST-ID) program. The report identifies the project objectives and provides a description of the model. Development of the first ``demonstration`` version of this model and a trial application have been completed and the results are presented. This model will continue to evolve as it undergoes additional user review and testing.

System risk evolution analysis and risk critical event identification based on event sequence diagram

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Luo, Pengcheng; Hu, Yang

2013-01-01

During system operation, the environmental, operational and usage conditions are time-varying, which causes the fluctuations of the system state variables (SSVs). These fluctuations change the accidents’ probabilities and then result in the system risk evolution (SRE). This inherent relation makes it feasible to realize risk control by monitoring the SSVs in real time, herein, the quantitative analysis of SRE is essential. Besides, some events in the process of SRE are critical to system risk, because they act like the “demarcative points” of safety and accident, and this characteristic makes each of them a key point of risk control. Therefore, analysis of SRE and identification of risk critical events (RCEs) are remarkably meaningful to ensure the system to operate safely. In this context, an event sequence diagram (ESD) based method of SRE analysis and the related Monte Carlo solution are presented; RCE and risk sensitive variable (RSV) are defined, and the corresponding identification methods are also proposed. Finally, the proposed approaches are exemplified with an accident scenario of an aircraft getting into the icing region

Instability risk analysis and risk assessment system establishment of underground storage caverns in bedded salt rock

Science.gov (United States)

Jing, Wenjun; Zhao, Yan

2018-02-01

Stability is an important part of geotechnical engineering research. The operating experiences of underground storage caverns in salt rock all around the world show that the stability of the caverns is the key problem of safe operation. Currently, the combination of theoretical analysis and numerical simulation are the mainly adopts method of reserve stability analysis. This paper introduces the concept of risk into the stability analysis of underground geotechnical structure, and studies the instability of underground storage cavern in salt rock from the perspective of risk analysis. Firstly, the definition and classification of cavern instability risk is proposed, and the damage mechanism is analyzed from the mechanical angle. Then the main stability evaluating indicators of cavern instability risk are proposed, and an evaluation method of cavern instability risk is put forward. Finally, the established cavern instability risk assessment system is applied to the analysis and prediction of cavern instability risk after 30 years of operation in a proposed storage cavern group in the Huai’an salt mine. This research can provide a useful theoretical base for the safe operation and management of underground storage caverns in salt rock.

Analysis of risk factors and risk assessment for ischemic stroke recurrence

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiu-ying LONG

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Objective To screen the risk factors for recurrence of ischemic stroke and to assess the risk of recurrence. Methods Essen Stroke Risk Score (ESRS was used to evaluate the risk of recurrence in 176 patients with ischemic stroke (96 cases of first onset and 80 cases of recurrence. Univariate and multivariate stepwise Logistic regression analysis was used to screen risk factors for recurrence of ischemic stroke.  Results There were significant differences between first onset group and recurrence group on age, the proportion of > 75 years old, hypertension, diabetes, coronary heart disease, peripheral angiopathy, transient ischemic attack (TIA or ischemic stroke, drinking and ESRS score (P < 0.05, for all. First onset group included one case of ESRS 0 (1.04%, 8 cases of 1 (8.33%, 39 cases of 2 (40.63%, 44 cases of 3 (45.83%, 4 cases of 4 (4.17%. Recurrence group included 2 cases of ESRS 3 (2.50%, 20 cases of 4 (25% , 37 cases of 5 (46.25% , 18 cases of 6 (22.50% , 3 cases of 7 (3.75% . There was significant difference between 2 groups (Z = -11.376, P = 0.000. Logistic regression analysis showed ESRS > 3 score was independent risk factor for recurrence of ischemic stroke (OR = 31.324, 95%CI: 3.934-249.430; P = 0.001.  Conclusions ESRS > 3 score is the independent risk factor for recurrence of ischemic stroke. It is important to strengthen risk assessment of recurrence of ischemic stroke. To screen and control risk factors is the key to secondary prevention of ischemic stroke. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1672-6731.2016.07.011

Risk analysis of industrial plants operation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hubert, Philippe

1989-12-01

This study examines the possibilities of systematic technology risk analysis in view of territorial management (city, urban community, region), including chronic and accidental risks. The objective was to relate this evaluation with those done for permanent water and air pollution. Risk management for pollution are done for a long time. A number of studies were done in urban communities and regions both for air and water pollution. The second objective is related to management of industrial risks: nuclear, petrochemical, transport of hazardous material, pipelines, etc. At the beginning, three possibilities of effects are taken into account: human health, economic aspect and water, and possibilities of evaluation are identified. Elements of risk identification are presented for quantification of results [fr

Information report published by the Commission for sustainable development and land planning on the finance bill project for 2017 (nr 4061). Nr 4131, Volume II: ecology, sustainable development and mobility, protection of the environment and risk prevention; Volume V: ecology, sustainable development and mobility, ecological transition; Volume X: research and higher education, research in fields related to sustainable development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lambert, Francois-Michel; Krabal, Jacques; Plisson, Philippe

2016-01-01

A first volume addresses the issue of risk prevention in terms of budgets, actions and strategic orientations for 2017 (a mix of budget increases and decreases, ambitious objectives and actions), and in terms of policy for a cleaner and safer environment (reduction of vulnerability to hydraulic and major natural risks, limitation of the exposure to technological and industrial risks, control of nuclear safety, protection of health against risks related to endocrine disrupters, bio-technologies or noise). A second volume addresses issues related to energy transition, firstly by discussing budgets awarded to energy and ecological transition (evolution of budgets awarded to program number 174, energy policy, economic and social management of the post-mining era, struggle against climate change, evolution of tax-related expenses, the issue of a sustainable financing of international and national commitments), and by discussing the consistency of the policy for a low carbon print system. A third volume addresses issues related to research in the fields related to sustainable development. It notably comments the global stability of budgets, and proposes an overview of involved public actors (CEA, CSTB, IFPEN, IFSTARR, INERIS and IRSN)

[Survival analysis with competing risks: estimating failure probability].

Science.gov (United States)

Llorca, Javier; Delgado-Rodríguez, Miguel

2004-01-01

To show the impact of competing risks of death on survival analysis. We provide an example of survival time without chronic rejection after heart transplantation, where death before rejection acts as a competing risk. Using a computer simulation, we compare the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the multiple decrement model. The Kaplan-Meier method overestimated the probability of rejection. Next, we illustrate the use of the multiple decrement model to analyze secondary end points (in our example: death after rejection). Finally, we discuss Kaplan-Meier assumptions and why they fail in the presence of competing risks. Survival analysis should be adjusted for competing risks of death to avoid overestimation of the risk of rejection produced with the Kaplan-Meier method.

Quantitative risk analysis of a space shuttle subsystem

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frank, M.V.

1989-01-01

This paper reports that in an attempt to investigate methods for risk management other than qualitative analysis techniques, NASA has funded pilot study quantitative risk analyses for space shuttle subsystems. The authors performed one such study of two shuttle subsystems with McDonnell Douglas Astronautics Company. The subsystems were the auxiliary power units (APU) on the orbiter, and the hydraulic power units on the solid rocket booster. The technology and results of the APU study are presented in this paper. Drawing from a rich in-flight database as well as from a wealth of tests and analyses, the study quantitatively assessed the risk of APU-initiated scenarios on the shuttle during all phases of a flight mission. Damage states of interest were loss of crew/vehicle, aborted mission, and launch scrub. A quantitative risk analysis approach to deciding on important items for risk management was contrasted with the current NASA failure mode and effects analysis/critical item list approach

Major risk from rapid, large-volume landslides in Europe (EU Project RUNOUT)

Science.gov (United States)

Kilburn, Christopher R. J.; Pasuto, Alessandro

2003-08-01

Project RUNOUT has investigated methods for reducing the risk from large-volume landslides in Europe, especially those involving rapid rates of emplacement. Using field data from five test sites (Bad Goisern and Köfels in Austria, Tessina and Vajont in Italy, and the Barranco de Tirajana in Gran Canaria, Spain), the studies have developed (1) techniques for applying geomorphological investigations and optical remote sensing to map landslides and their evolution; (2) analytical, numerical, and cellular automata models for the emplacement of sturzstroms and debris flows; (3) a brittle-failure model for forecasting catastrophic slope failure; (4) new strategies for integrating large-area Global Positioning System (GPS) arrays with local geodetic monitoring networks; (5) methods for raising public awareness of landslide hazards; and (6) Geographic Information System (GIS)-based databases for the test areas. The results highlight the importance of multidisciplinary studies of landslide hazards, combining subjects as diverse as geology and geomorphology, remote sensing, geodesy, fluid dynamics, and social profiling. They have also identified key goals for an improved understanding of the physical processes that govern landslide collapse and runout, as well as for designing strategies for raising public awareness of landslide hazards and for implementing appropriate land management policies for reducing landslide risk.

New algorithm for risk analysis in radiotherapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Torres, Antonio; Montes de Oca, Joe

2015-01-01

Risk analyses applied to radiotherapy treatments have become an undeniable necessity, considering the dangers generated by the combination of using powerful radiation fields on patients and the occurrence of human errors and equipment failures during these treatments. The technique par excellence to execute these analyses has been the risk matrix. This paper presents the development of a new algorithm to execute the task with wide graphic and analytic potentialities, thus transforming it into a very useful option for risk monitoring and the optimization of quality assurance. The system SECURE- MR, which is the basic software of this algorithm, has been successfully used in risk analysis regarding different kinds of radiotherapies. Compared to previous methods, It offers new possibilities of analysis considering risk controlling factors as the robustness of reducers of initiators frequency and its consequences. Their analytic capacities and graphs allow novel developments to classify risk contributing factors, to represent information processes as well as accidental sequences. The paper shows the application of the proposed system to a generic process of radiotherapy treatment using a lineal accelerator. (author)

Modeling issues in nuclear plant fire risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Siu, N.

1989-01-01

This paper discusses various issues associated with current models for analyzing the risk due to fires in nuclear power plants. Particular emphasis is placed on the fire growth and suppression models, these being unique to the fire portion of the overall risk analysis. Potentially significant modeling improvements are identified; also discussed are a variety of modeling issues where improvements will help the credibility of the analysis, without necessarily changing the computed risk significantly. The mechanistic modeling of fire initiation is identified as a particularly promising improvement for reducing the uncertainties in the predicted risk. 17 refs., 5 figs. 2 tabs

Comparative risk analysis for the Rocky Flats Plant integrated project planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jones, M.E.; Shain, D.I.

1994-01-01

The Rocky Flats Plant is developing, with active stakeholder participation, a comprehensive planning strategy that will support transition of the Rocky Flats Plant from a nuclear weapons production facility to site cleanup and final disposition. Consideration of the interrelated nature of sitewide problems, such as material movement and disposition, facility and land use endstates, costs, relative risks to workers and the public, and waste disposition are all needed. Comparative Risk Analysis employs both incremental risk and cumulative risk evaluations to compare risks from postulated options or endstates and is an analytical tool for the Rocky Flats Plant Integrated Project Planning which can assist a decision-maker in evaluating relative risks among proposed remediation activity. However, risks from all of the remediation activities, decontamination and decommissioning activities, and normal ongoing operations are imposed upon the Rocky Flats workers, the surrounding public, and the environment. Comparative Risk Analysis will provide risk information, both human health and ecological, to aid in reducing unnecessary resource and monetary expenditures by focusing these resources on the largest risks first. Comparative Risk Analysis has been developed to aggregate various incremental risk estimates to develop a site cumulative risk estimate. The Comparative Risk Analysis methodology Group, consisting of community stakeholders, was established. Early stakeholder involvement in the risk analysis methodology development provides an opportunity for stakeholders to influence the risk information delivered to a decision-maker. This paper discusses development of the Comparative Risk Analysis methodology, stakeholder participation and lessons learned from these challenges

Preliminary risk assessment for nuclear waste disposal in space. Volume I. Executive summary of technical report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rice, E.E.; Denning, R.S.; Friedlander, A.L.

1982-01-01

Three major conclusions come from this preliminary risk assessment of nuclear waste disposal in space. Preliminary estimates of space disposal risk are low, even with the estimated uncertainty bounds. If calculated mined geologic repository (MGR) release risks remain low, and the EPA requirements continue to be met, then no additional space disposal study effort is warranted. If risks perceived by the public are significant in the acceptance of mined geologic repositories, then consideration of space disposal as an MGR complement is warranted. As a result of this study, the following recommendations are made to NASA and the US DOE: During the continued evaluation of the mined geologic repository risk over the years ahead by DOE, if any significant increase in the calculated health risk is predicted for the MGR, then space disposal should be reevaluated at that time. The risks perceived by the public for the MGR should be evaluated on a broad basis by an independent organization to evaluate acceptance. If, in the future, MGR risks are found to be significant due to some presently unknown technical or social factor, and space disposal is selected as an alternative that may be useful in mitigating the risks, then the following space disposal study activities are recommended: improvement in chemical processing technology for wastes; payload accident response analysis; risk uncertainty analysis for both MGR and space disposal; health risk modeling that includes pathway and dose estimates; space disposal cost modeling; assessment of space disposal perceived (by public) risk benefit; and space systems analysis supporting risk and cost modeling

Evaluation of the radiological risk resulting from road transportation of tritiated water

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Menossi, C.A.; Segado, R.; Reyes, R.

1983-01-01

A probability model for the evaluation of the individual radiological risk resulting from road transportation of tritiated water in 200-liter drums is presented. In order to evaluate such risk, an evaluation must be made of the probability for an individual to be involved in the consequences of a radiological transport accident, to incur a given dose and to suffer deleterious effects resulting from the dose incurred. With the purpose of quantifying the importance of accidents, a severity level classification was adopted as a function of the fraction of liquid volume spilled as a result of the accident. Considering the above-mentioned severity classification and the transported volume, the volume and the spill area are implied, while the soil characteristics are taken into account. By evaluating the spill characteristics, the average meteorological conditions in the area under analysis and the activity concentration of the transported liquid, the activity concentration values for tritium in air may be estimated, thus allowing calculation of the effective dose equivalent to be incurred by the individual who is most exposed to the consequences of an associated event. As a result of the summarized analysis above, a value of the individual risk per unit of activity concentration is obtained for tritium and for a given volume of transported liquid. 8 references

Volume arc therapy of gynaecological tumours: target volume coverage improvement without dose increase for critical organs; Arctherapie volumique des tumeurs gynecologiques: amelioration de la couverture du volume cible sans augmentation de la dose aux organes critiques

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ducteil, A.; Kerr, C.; Idri, K.; Fenoglietto, P.; Vieillot, S.; Ailleres, N.; Dubois, J.B.; Azria, D. [CRLC Val-d' Aurelle, Montpellier (France)

2011-10-15

The authors report the assessment of the application of conventional intensity-modulated conformational radiotherapy (IMRT) and volume arc-therapy (RapidArc) for the treatment of cervical cancers, with respect to conventional radiotherapy. Dosimetric plans associated with each of these techniques have been compared. Dose-volume histograms of these three plans have also been compared for the previsional target volume (PTV), organs at risk, and sane tissue. IMCT techniques are equivalent in terms of sparing of organs at risk, and improve target volume coverage with respect to conventional radiotherapy. Arc-therapy reduces significantly treatment duration. Short communication

How medical treatment affects mean platelet volume as a cardiovascular risk marker in polycystic ovary syndrome?

Science.gov (United States)

Kabil Kucur, Suna; Gozukara, Ilay; Aksoy, Aysenur; Uludag, Eda U; Keskin, Havva; Kamalak, Zeynep; Carlioglu, Ayse

2015-12-01

Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is a prevalent disease with many potential long-term metabolic and cardiovascular risks if not managed appropriately. Mean platelet volume (MPV) is a marker associated with adverse cardiovascular events. In this study, we aimed to investigate MPV levels under ethinyl estradiol/cyproterone acetate or metformin therapy for the previous 6 months in PCOS. A total of 114 individuals [metformin treatment (n = 18), ethinyl estradiol/cyproterone acetate treatment (n = 29), newly diagnosed PCOS patient with no treatment (n = 35), and control group of eumenorrheic healthy individuals (n = 32)] were included in the current study. Hematologic parameters other than MPV were similar in all groups. The MPV value was significantly higher in the newly diagnosed PCOS patients compared with the other three groups independent of age, BMI, and C-reactive protein level in multiple regression analysis (P < 0.01). The MPV value of control group was comparable to the groups under ethinyl estradiol/cyproterone acetate or metformin therapy (P = 1.0). There was no statistically significant difference in the white blood cell count among the groups. The MPV values were positively correlated with the homeostatic model assessment-insulin resistance and Ferriman-Gallwey Score (P = 0.044, r = 0.261; P = 0.037, r = 0.229, respectively). Ethinyl estradiol/cyproterone acetate and metformin similarly appear to decrease MPV, a marker of cardiovascular risk. Therefore, a possible beneficial effect of ethinyl estradiol/cyproterone acetate and metformin on long-term cardiovascular morbidities in PCOS may be suggested.

Network theory-based analysis of risk interactions in large engineering projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fang, Chao; Marle, Franck; Zio, Enrico; Bocquet, Jean-Claude

2012-01-01

This paper presents an approach based on network theory to deal with risk interactions in large engineering projects. Indeed, such projects are exposed to numerous and interdependent risks of various nature, which makes their management more difficult. In this paper, a topological analysis based on network theory is presented, which aims at identifying key elements in the structure of interrelated risks potentially affecting a large engineering project. This analysis serves as a powerful complement to classical project risk analysis. Its originality lies in the application of some network theory indicators to the project risk management field. The construction of the risk network requires the involvement of the project manager and other team members assigned to the risk management process. Its interpretation improves their understanding of risks and their potential interactions. The outcomes of the analysis provide a support for decision-making regarding project risk management. An example of application to a real large engineering project is presented. The conclusion is that some new insights can be found about risks, about their interactions and about the global potential behavior of the project. - Highlights: ► The method addresses the modeling of complexity in project risk analysis. ► Network theory indicators enable other risks than classical criticality analysis to be highlighted. ► This topological analysis improves project manager's understanding of risks and risk interactions. ► This helps project manager to make decisions considering the position in the risk network. ► An application to a real tramway implementation project in a city is provided.

Improving the clinical correlation of multiple sclerosis black hole volume change by paired-scan analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Tam, Roger C; Traboulsee, Anthony; Riddehough, Andrew; Li, David K B

2012-01-01

The change in T 1-hypointense lesion ("black hole") volume is an important marker of pathological progression in multiple sclerosis (MS). Black hole boundaries often have low contrast and are difficult to determine accurately and most (semi-)automated segmentation methods first compute the T 2-hyperintense lesions, which are a superset of the black holes and are typically more distinct, to form a search space for the T 1w lesions. Two main potential sources of measurement noise in longitudinal black hole volume computation are partial volume and variability in the T 2w lesion segmentation. A paired analysis approach is proposed herein that uses registration to equalize partial volume and lesion mask processing to combine T 2w lesion segmentations across time. The scans of 247 MS patients are used to compare a selected black hole computation method with an enhanced version incorporating paired analysis, using rank correlation to a clinical variable (MS functional composite) as the primary outcome measure. The comparison is done at nine different levels of intensity as a previous study suggests that darker black holes may yield stronger correlations. The results demonstrate that paired analysis can strongly improve longitudinal correlation (from -0.148 to -0.303 in this sample) and may produce segmentations that are more sensitive to clinically relevant changes.

An analysis of malar fat volume in two age groups: implications for craniofacial surgery.

Science.gov (United States)

Corey, Christina L; Popelka, Gerald R; Barrera, Jose E; Most, Sam P

2012-12-01

Objective To evaluate how malar fat pad (MFP) volumes vary with age, after controlling for gender and body mass index (BMI). Study Design A prospective case-control study evaluating volume of the MFP in women of two age groups. Methods Soft tissue dimensions were measured in eight subjects using magnetic resonance imaging. A multiplanar localizing sequence, followed in sagittal and coronal orientations using a turbo spin echo sequence, was performed to define the MFP. Volumetric calculations were then performed using a 3D image analysis application (Dextroscope, Volume Interactions, Republic of Singapore) to circumscribe areas, orient dimensions, and calculate volumes of the MFP. Results These data reveal no significant difference in the mean (standard deviation) right MFP (p = 0.50), left MFP (p = 0.41), or total MFP (p = 0.45) volumes when comparing the two age groups. In addition, these data indicate that there was no correlation between age and total MFP volume (Pearson correlation coefficient 0.27). Moreover, there was no correlation between age and the ratio of total volume/BMI (Pearson correlation coefficient -0.18). Conclusions Although the sample size of this study was small, these data indicate that ptosis of midfacial fat is more important than volume loss in midfacial aging. These data would suggest repositioning as the primary modality for craniofacial reconstruction.

Risk analysis methodologies for the transportation of radioactive materials

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Geffen, C.A.

1983-05-01

Different methodologies have evolved for consideration of each of the many steps required in performing a transportation risk analysis. Although there are techniques that attempt to consider the entire scope of the analysis in depth, most applications of risk assessment to the transportation of nuclear fuel cycle materials develop specific methodologies for only one or two parts of the analysis. The remaining steps are simplified for the analyst by narrowing the scope of the effort (such as evaluating risks for only one material, or a particular set of accident scenarios, or movement over a specific route); performing a qualitative rather than a quantitative analysis (probabilities may be simply ranked as high, medium or low, for instance); or assuming some generic, conservative conditions for potential release fractions and consequences. This paper presents a discussion of the history and present state-of-the-art of transportation risk analysis methodologies. Many reports in this area were reviewed as background for this presentation. The literature review, while not exhaustive, did result in a complete representation of the major methods used today in transportation risk analysis. These methodologies primarily include the use of severity categories based on historical accident data, the analysis of specifically assumed accident sequences for the transportation activity of interest, and the use of fault or event tree analysis. Although the focus of this work has generally been on potential impacts to public groups, some effort has been expended in the estimation of risks to occupational groups in transportation activities

Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Dezfuli, Homayoon; Kelly, Dana; Smith, Curtis; Vedros, Kurt; Galyean, William

2009-01-01

This document, Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis, is intended to provide guidelines for the collection and evaluation of risk and reliability-related data. It is aimed at scientists and engineers familiar with risk and reliability methods and provides a hands-on approach to the investigation and application of a variety of risk and reliability data assessment methods, tools, and techniques. This document provides both: A broad perspective on data analysis collection and evaluation issues. A narrow focus on the methods to implement a comprehensive information repository. The topics addressed herein cover the fundamentals of how data and information are to be used in risk and reliability analysis models and their potential role in decision making. Understanding these topics is essential to attaining a risk informed decision making environment that is being sought by NASA requirements and procedures such as 8000.4 (Agency Risk Management Procedural Requirements), NPR 8705.05 (Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures for NASA Programs and Projects), and the System Safety requirements of NPR 8715.3 (NASA General Safety Program Requirements).

VIPRE-01. a thermal-hydraulic analysis code for reactor cores. Volume 1. Mathematical modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stewart, C.W.; Cuta, J.M.; Koontz, A.S.; Kelly, J.M.; Basehore, K.L.; George, T.L.; Rowe, D.S.

1983-04-01

VIPRE (Versatile Internals and Component Program for Reactors; EPRI) has been developed for nuclear power utility thermal-hydraulic analysis applications. It is designed to help evaluate nuclear reactor core safety limits including minimum departure from nucleate boiling ratio (MDNBR), critical power ratio (CPR), fuel and clad temperatures, and coolant state in normal operation and assumed accident conditions. This volume (Volume 1: Mathematical Modeling) explains the major thermal hydraulic models and supporting correlations in detail

Advanced uncertainty modelling for container port risk analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Alyami, Hani; Yang, Zaili; Riahi, Ramin; Bonsall, Stephen; Wang, Jin

2016-08-13

Globalization has led to a rapid increase of container movements in seaports. Risks in seaports need to be appropriately addressed to ensure economic wealth, operational efficiency, and personnel safety. As a result, the safety performance of a Container Terminal Operational System (CTOS) plays a growing role in improving the efficiency of international trade. This paper proposes a novel method to facilitate the application of Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) in assessing the safety performance of CTOS. The new approach is developed through incorporating a Fuzzy Rule-Based Bayesian Network (FRBN) with Evidential Reasoning (ER) in a complementary manner. The former provides a realistic and flexible method to describe input failure information for risk estimates of individual hazardous events (HEs) at the bottom level of a risk analysis hierarchy. The latter is used to aggregate HEs safety estimates collectively, allowing dynamic risk-based decision support in CTOS from a systematic perspective. The novel feature of the proposed method, compared to those in traditional port risk analysis lies in a dynamic model capable of dealing with continually changing operational conditions in ports. More importantly, a new sensitivity analysis method is developed and carried out to rank the HEs by taking into account their specific risk estimations (locally) and their Risk Influence (RI) to a port's safety system (globally). Due to its generality, the new approach can be tailored for a wide range of applications in different safety and reliability engineering and management systems, particularly when real time risk ranking is required to measure, predict, and improve the associated system safety performance. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multivariate survival analysis and competing risks

CERN Document Server

Crowder, Martin J

2012-01-01

Multivariate Survival Analysis and Competing Risks introduces univariate survival analysis and extends it to the multivariate case. It covers competing risks and counting processes and provides many real-world examples, exercises, and R code. The text discusses survival data, survival distributions, frailty models, parametric methods, multivariate data and distributions, copulas, continuous failure, parametric likelihood inference, and non- and semi-parametric methods. There are many books covering survival analysis, but very few that cover the multivariate case in any depth. Written for a graduate-level audience in statistics/biostatistics, this book includes practical exercises and R code for the examples. The author is renowned for his clear writing style, and this book continues that trend. It is an excellent reference for graduate students and researchers looking for grounding in this burgeoning field of research.

HYDRA-II: A hydrothermal analysis computer code: Volume 1, Equations and numerics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McCann, R.A.

1987-04-01

HYDRA-II is a hydrothermal computer code capable of three-dimensional analysis of coupled conduction, convection, and thermal radiation problems. This code is especially appropriate for simulating the steady-state performance of spent fuel storage systems. The code has been evaluated for this application for the US Department of Energy's Commercial Spent Fuel Management Program. HYDRA-II provides a finite difference solution in Cartesian coordinates to the equations governing the conservation of mass, momentum, and energy. A cylindrical coordinate system may also be used to enclose the Cartesian coordinate system. This exterior coordinate system is useful for modeling cylindrical cask bodies. The difference equations for conservation of momentum are enhanced by the incorporation of directional porosities and permeabilities that aid in modeling solid structures whose dimensions may be smaller than the computational mesh. The equation for conservation of energy permits of modeling of orthotropic physical properties and film resistances. Several automated procedures are available to model radiation transfer within enclosures and from fuel rod to fuel rod. The documentation of HYDRA-II is presented in three separate volumes. This volume, Volume I - Equations and Numerics, describes the basic differential equations, illustrates how the difference equations are formulated, and gives the solution procedures employed. Volume II - User's Manual contains code flow charts, discusses the code structure, provides detailed instructions for preparing an input file, and illustrates the operation of the code by means of a model problem. The final volume, Volume III - Verification/Validation Assessments, presents results of numerical simulations of single- and multiassembly storage systems and comparisons with experimental data. 4 refs

Analysis of dose volume histogram parameters to estimate late bladder and rectum complications after high-dose (70-78 Gy) conformal radiotherapy for prostate cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boersma, L.J.; Brink, M. van den; Bruce, A.; Gras, L.; Velde, A. te; Lebesque, J.V.

1997-01-01

Purpose: To investigate whether Dose Volume Histogram (DVH) parameters can be used to identify risk groups for developing late gastrointestinal (GI) and genitourinary (GU) complications after conformal radiotherapy for prostate cancer, and to examine the effect of using different morbidity scoring systems on the results of these analyses. Materials and Methods: DVH parameters were analyzed for 130 patients with localized prostate cancer, treated with conformal radiotherapy in a dose-escalating protocol (70-78 Gy, 2 Gy per fraction). The incidence of late (> 6 months) GI and GU complications was scored based on questionnaires and classified using the RTOG/EORTC and the SOMA/LENT scoring system. Moreover, patients were classified as being a rectal bleeder or no rectal bleeder and a distinction was made between non-severe and severe (requiring one or more laser treatments) rectal bleeding. The median follow-up time was 22 months. It was investigated whether the relative and absolute rectal wall volumes, irradiated to various dose levels (≥ 60 Gy, ≥ 65 Gy, ≥ 70 Gy and ≥ 75 Gy) were correlated with the observed actuarial incidences of GI complications. First, the analysis was performed using volume as a continuous variable. Subsequently, for each dose level in the DVH the rectal wall volumes were dichotomized using different volumes as cut-off levels. Twenty cut-off levels were tested on their ability to discriminate between high and low risk for developing GI complications (Fig.). The relationship between bladder wall volumes irradiated to various dose levels and observed actuarial GU complications was investigated using the absolute bladder wall volumes, measured as a continuous variable. For both GI and GU complications, the role of the prescribed radiation dose and the maximum radiation dose in the rectal and bladder wall was analyzed as well. Results: None of the DVH parameters of the rectal wall was significantly correlated with the actuarial incidences of

Analysis of risk factors causing short-term cement leakages and long-term complications after percutaneous kyphoplasty for osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures.

Science.gov (United States)

Gao, Chang; Zong, Min; Wang, Wen-Tao; Xu, Lei; Cao, Da; Zou, Yue-Fen

2018-05-01

Background Percutaneous kyphoplasty (PKP) is a common treatment modality for painful osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures (OVCFs). Pre- and postoperative identification of risk factors for cement leakage and follow-up complications would therefore be helpful but has not been systematically investigated. Purpose To evaluate pre- and postoperative risk factors for the occurrence of short-term cement leakages and long-term complications after PKP for OVCFs. Material and Methods A total of 283 vertebrae with PKP in 239 patients were investigated. Possible risk factors causing cement leakage and complications during follow-up periods were retrospectively assessed using multivariate analysis. Cement leakage in general, three fundamental leakage types, and complications during follow-up period were directly identified through postoperative computed tomography (CT). Results Generally, the presence of cortical disruption ( P = 0.001), large volume of cement ( P = 0.012), and low bone mineral density (BMD) ( P = 0.002) were three strong predictors for cement leakage. While the presence of intravertebral cleft and Schmorl nodes ( P = 0.045 and 0.025, respectively) were respectively identified as additional risk factors for paravertebral and intradiscal subtype of cortical (C-type) leakages. In terms of follow-up complications, occurrence of cortical leakage was a strong risk factor both for new VCFs ( P = 0.043) and for recompression ( P = 0.004). Conclusion The presence of cortical disruption, large volume of cement, and low BMD of treated level are general but strong predictors for cement leakage. The presence of intravertebral cleft and Schmorl nodes are additional risk factors for cortical leakage. During follow-up, the occurrence of C-type leakage is a strong risk factor, for both new VCFs and recompression.