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Sample records for risk analysis volume

  1. Perception and acceptance of technological risk sources. Volume 2. Empirical analysis of risk perception and acceptance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Renn, O

    1981-01-01

    Volume 2 presents a comparative investigation of risk perception and acceptance. It contains the evaluations of the two experiments in social psychology and the analysis of two intensive inquiries concerning risk perception with a view to 12 different risk sources. The data of the two inquiries were acquired from a total of 200 interview partners in two cities in North-Rhine Westphalia.

  2. Yucca Mountain transportation routes: Preliminary characterization and risk analysis; Volume 2, Figures [and] Volume 3, Technical Appendices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Souleyrette, R.R. II; Sathisan, S.K.; di Bartolo, R. [Nevada Univ., Las Vegas, NV (United States). Transportation Research Center

    1991-05-31

    This report presents appendices related to the preliminary assessment and risk analysis for high-level radioactive waste transportation routes to the proposed Yucca Mountain Project repository. Information includes data on population density, traffic volume, ecologically sensitive areas, and accident history.

  3. Underground Test Area Subproject Phase I Data Analysis Task. Volume VIII - Risk Assessment Documentation Package

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1996-12-01

    Volume VIII of the documentation for the Phase I Data Analysis Task performed in support of the current Regional Flow Model, Transport Model, and Risk Assessment for the Nevada Test Site Underground Test Area Subproject contains the risk assessment documentation. Because of the size and complexity of the model area, a considerable quantity of data was collected and analyzed in support of the modeling efforts. The data analysis task was consequently broken into eight subtasks, and descriptions of each subtask's activities are contained in one of the eight volumes that comprise the Phase I Data Analysis Documentation.

  4. Estimation of pneumonitis risk in three-dimensional treatment planning using dose-volume histogram analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oetzel, Dieter; Schraube, Peter; Hensley, Frank; Sroka-Perez, Gabriele; Menke, Markus; Flentje, Michael

    1995-01-01

    Purpose: Investigations to study correlations between the estimations of biophysical models in three dimensional (3D) treatment planning and clinical observations are scarce. The development of clinically symptomatic pneumonitis in the radiotherapy of thoracic malignomas was chosen to test the predictive power of Lyman's normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) model for the assessment of side effects for nonuniform irradiation. Methods and Materials: In a retrospective analysis individual computed-tomography-based 3D dose distributions of a random sample of (46(20)) patients with lung/esophageal cancer were reconstructed. All patients received tumor doses between 50 and 60 Gy in a conventional treatment schedule. Biological isoeffective dose-volume histograms (DVHs) were used for the calculation of complication probabilities after applying Lyman's and Kutcher's DVH-reduction algorithm. Lung dose statistics were performed for single lung (involved ipsilateral and contralateral) and for the lung as a paired organ. Results: In the lung cancer group, about 20% of the patients (9 out of 46) developed pneumonitis 3-12 (median 7.5) weeks after completion of radiotherapy. For the majority of these lung cancer patients, the involved ipsilateral lung received a much higher dose than the contralateral lung, and the pneumonitis patients had on average a higher lung exposure with a doubling of the predicted complication risk (38% vs. 20%). The lower lung exposure for the esophagus patients resulted in a mean lung dose of 13.2 Gy (lung cancer: 20.5 Gy) averaged over all patients in correlation with an almost zero complication risk and only one observed case of pneumonitis (1 out of 20). To compare the pneumonitis risk estimations with observed complication rates, the patients were ranked into bins of mean ipsilateral lung dose. Particularly, in the bins with the highest patient numbers, a good correlation was achieved. Agreement was not reached for the lung functioning as

  5. Risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baron, J.H.; Nunez McLeod, J.; Rivera, S.S.

    1997-01-01

    This book contains a selection of research works performed in the CEDIAC Institute (Cuyo National University) in the area of Risk Analysis, with specific orientations to the subjects of uncertainty and sensitivity studies, software reliability, severe accident modeling, etc. This volume presents important material for all those researches who want to have an insight in the risk analysis field, as a tool to solution several problems frequently found in the engineering and applied sciences field, as well as for the academic teachers who want to keep up to date, including the new developments and improvements continuously arising in this field [es

  6. Dose-Volume Analysis of Radiation Nephropathy in Children: Preliminary Report of the Risk Consortium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boelling, Tobias; Ernst, Iris; Pape, Hildegard; Martini, Carmen; Ruebe, Christian; Timmermann, Beate; Fischedick, Karin; Kortmann, Rolf-Dieter; Willich, Normann

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: To characterize kidney function in children and adolescents who had undergone radiation treatment that included parts of the kidney. Methods and Materials: Patients receiving radiotherapy during childhood or adolescence were prospectively registered in Germany's Registry for the Evaluation of Side Effects after Radiation in Childhood and Adolescence (RiSK). Detailed information was recorded regarding radiation doses at the organs at risk since 2001 all over Germany. Toxicity evaluation was performed according to standardized Radiation Therapy Oncology Group/European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer criteria. Results: Up to May 2009, 1086 patients from 62 centers were recruited, including 126 patients (median age, 10.2 years) who underwent radiotherapy to parts of the kidneys. Maximal late toxicity (median follow-up 28.5 months in 74 patients) was characterized as Grade 0 (n = 65), 1 (n = 7) or 2 (n = 2). All patients with late effects had received potentially nephrotoxic chemotherapy. A statistically significant difference between patients with and without Grade 1 toxicity, revealing higher exposed kidney volumes in patients with toxicity, was seen for the kidney volume exposed to 20 Gy (V20; p = 0.031) and 30 Gy (V30; p = 0.003). Conclusions: Preliminary data indicate that radiation-induced kidney function impairment is rare in current pediatric multimodal treatment approaches. In the future, RiSK will be able to provide further detailed data regarding dose-volume effect relationships of radiation-associated side effects in pediatric oncology patients.

  7. Risk Factors for Chronic Subdural Hematoma Recurrence Identified Using Quantitative Computed Tomography Analysis of Hematoma Volume and Density.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stavrinou, Pantelis; Katsigiannis, Sotirios; Lee, Jong Hun; Hamisch, Christina; Krischek, Boris; Mpotsaris, Anastasios; Timmer, Marco; Goldbrunner, Roland

    2017-03-01

    Chronic subdural hematoma (CSDH), a common condition in elderly patients, presents a therapeutic challenge with recurrence rates of 33%. We aimed to identify specific prognostic factors for recurrence using quantitative analysis of hematoma volume and density. We retrospectively reviewed radiographic and clinical data of 227 CSDHs in 195 consecutive patients who underwent evacuation of the hematoma through a single burr hole, 2 burr holes, or a mini-craniotomy. To examine the relationship between hematoma recurrence and various clinical, radiologic, and surgical factors, we used quantitative image-based analysis to measure the hematoma and trapped air volumes and the hematoma densities. Recurrence of CSDH occurred in 35 patients (17.9%). Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that the percentage of hematoma drained and postoperative CSDH density were independent risk factors for recurrence. All 3 evacuation methods were equally effective in draining the hematoma (71.7% vs. 73.7% vs. 71.9%) without observable differences in postoperative air volume captured in the subdural space. Quantitative image analysis provided evidence that percentage of hematoma drained and postoperative CSDH density are independent prognostic factors for subdural hematoma recurrence. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE), Version 5.0. Volume 5, Systems Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) tutorial manual

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sattison, M.B.; Russell, K.D.; Skinner, N.L.

    1994-07-01

    The Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE) refers to a set of several microcomputer programs that were developed to create and analyze probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) primarily for nuclear power plants. This volume is the tutorial manual for the Systems Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) System Version 5.0, a microcomputer-based system used to analyze the safety issues of a open-quotes familyclose quotes [i.e., a power plant, a manufacturing facility, any facility on which a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) might be performed]. A series of lessons is provided that guides the user through some basic steps common to most analyses performed with SARA. The example problems presented in the lessons build on one another, and in combination, lead the user through all aspects of SARA sensitivity analysis capabilities

  9. Dosimetric analysis of varying cord planning organ at risk volume in spine stereotactic body radiation therapy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dawn Owen, MD, PhD

    2016-01-01

    Conclusion: Current guidelines may overestimate the risk of myelopathy from spine SBRT. The current study's population included both radiation-naïve and retreatment cases, but no myelopathy was observed despite exceeding recommended spine limits.

  10. Probabilistic risk assessment course documentation. Volume 7. Environmental transport and consequence analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ritchie, L.T.; Alpert, D.J.; Burke, R.P.; Ostmeyer, R.M.; Kaiser, G.D.; Runkle, G.E.; Woodard, K.

    1985-08-01

    Consequence models have been designed to assess health and economic risks from potential accidents at nuclear power plants. These models have been applied to an ever increasing variety of problems with ever increasing demands to improve modeling capabilities and provide greater realism. This course discusses the environmental transport of postulated radiological releases and the elements and purpose of accident consequence evaluation

  11. Final safety analysis report for the Galileo mission: Volume 3 (Book 2), Nuclear risk analysis document: Appendices: Revision 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1989-01-25

    It is the purpose of the NRAD to provide an analysis of the range of potential consequences of accidents which have been identified that are associated with the launching and deployment of the Galileo mission spacecraft. The specific consequences analyzed are those associated with the possible release of radioactive material (fuel) of the Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generators (RTGs). They are in terms of radiation doses to people and areas of deposition of radioactive material. These consequence analyses can be used in several ways. One way is to identify the potential range of consequences which might have to be dealt with if there were to be an accident with a release of fuel, so as to assure that, given such an accident, the health and safety of the public will be reasonably protected. Another use of the information, in conjunction with accident and release probabilities, is to estimate the risks associated with the mission. That is, most space launches occur without incident. Given an accident, the most probable result relative to the RTGs is complete containment of the radioactive material. Only a small fraction of accidents might result in a release of fuel and subsequent radiological consequences. The combination of probability with consequence is risk, which can be compared to other human and societal risks to assure that no undue risks are implied by undertaking the mission. Book 2 contains eight appendices.

  12. Risk Analysis of Volume Cheat Strategy in a Competitive Capacity Market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Feng, Donghan; Xu, Zhao

    2009-01-01

    Capacity market provides additional revenue stream for the power suppliers. In a capacity-energy combined market environment, suppliers have incentives to deliberately over-offer their capacities in the capacity market while bid very high price in the energy and ancillary markets to avoid operation....... This paper analyzes the risks and profits of this capacity-over-offer behavior, and develops a method for computing non-operable penalty level which can prevent the capacity-over-offer behavior. It is found that the effective penalty level is highly correlated with the stochastic characteristics......-energy market environment....

  13. Probabilistic risk assessment course documentation. Volume 3. System reliability and analysis techniques, Session A - reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lofgren, E.V.

    1985-08-01

    This course in System Reliability and Analysis Techniques focuses on the quantitative estimation of reliability at the systems level. Various methods are reviewed, but the structure provided by the fault tree method is used as the basis for system reliability estimates. The principles of fault tree analysis are briefly reviewed. Contributors to system unreliability and unavailability are reviewed, models are given for quantitative evaluation, and the requirements for both generic and plant-specific data are discussed. Also covered are issues of quantifying component faults that relate to the systems context in which the components are embedded. All reliability terms are carefully defined. 44 figs., 22 tabs

  14. Probabilistic risk assessment course documentation. Volume 5. System reliability and analysis techniques Session D - quantification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lofgren, E.V.

    1985-08-01

    This course in System Reliability and Analysis Techniques focuses on the probabilistic quantification of accident sequences and the link between accident sequences and consequences. Other sessions in this series focus on the quantification of system reliability and the development of event trees and fault trees. This course takes the viewpoint that event tree sequences or combinations of system failures and success are available and that Boolean equations for system fault trees have been developed and are available. 93 figs., 11 tabs

  15. Volume dose of organs at risk in the irradiated volume

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hishikawa, Yoshio; Tanaka, Shinichi; Miura, Takashi

    1984-01-01

    Absorbed dose of organs at risk in the 50% irradiated volume needs to be carefully monitored because there is high risk of radiation injury. This paper reports on the histogram of threedimensional volume dose of organs at risk, which is obtained by computer calculation of CT scans. In order to obtain this histogram, CT is first performed in the irradiation field. The dose in each pixel is then examined by the computer as to each slice. After the pixels of all slices in the organ at risk of the irradiated field are classified according to the doses, the number of pixels in the same dose class is counted. The result is expressed in a histogram. The histogram can show the differences of influence to organs at risk given by various radiation treatment techniques. Total volume dose of organs at risk after radiotherapy can also be obtained by integration of each dose of different treatment techniques. (author)

  16. Increased brain iron deposition is a risk factor for brain atrophy in patients with haemodialysis: a combined study of quantitative susceptibility mapping and whole brain volume analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chai, Chao; Zhang, Mengjie; Long, Miaomiao; Chu, Zhiqiang; Wang, Tong; Wang, Lijun; Guo, Yu; Yan, Shuo; Haacke, E Mark; Shen, Wen; Xia, Shuang

    2015-08-01

    To explore the correlation between increased brain iron deposition and brain atrophy in patients with haemodialysis and their correlation with clinical biomarkers and neuropsychological test. Forty two patients with haemodialysis and forty one age- and gender-matched healthy controls were recruited in this prospective study. 3D whole brain high resolution T1WI and susceptibility weighted imaging were scanned on a 3 T MRI system. The brain volume was analyzed using voxel-based morphometry (VBM) in patients and to compare with that of healthy controls. Quantitative susceptibility mapping was used to measure and compare the susceptibility of different structures between patients and healthy controls. Correlation analysis was used to investigate the relationship between the brain volume, iron deposition and neuropsychological scores. Stepwise multiple regression analysis was used to explore the effect of clinical biomarkers on the brain volumes in patients. Compared with healthy controls, patients with haemodialysis showed decreased volume of bilateral putamen and left insular lobe (All P brain iron deposition is negatively correlated with the decreased volume of bilateral putamen (P brain iron deposition and dialysis duration was risk factors for brain atrophy in patients with haemodialysis. The decreased gray matter volume of the left insular lobe was correlated with neurocognitive impairment.

  17. Pituitary gland volume in patients with schizophrenia, subjects at ultra high-risk of developing psychosis and healthy controls: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nordholm, Dorte; Krogh, Jesper; Mondelli, Valeria; Dazzan, Paola; Pariante, Carmine; Nordentoft, Merete

    2013-11-01

    A larger pituitary size is thought to reflect a greater activation of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis, which may be related to an increase in the number and size of corticotroph cells. Some studies, but not all, indicate that pituitary volume increases before or at the onset of psychosis. There is a need for at critical appraisal of the literature on this topic accompanied by a meta-analytical evaluation of the data. We included studies comparing the volume of the pituitary gland in healthy controls and patients with schizophrenia, first episode of psychosis (FEP), schizotypal disorder or ultra high-risk (UHR) subjects. We defined three groups of subjects for the analyses: healthy controls; UHR and schizotypal patients; and patients diagnosed with first episode of psychosis, schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder. Ten studies were included in the meta-analysis. We found a trend of a larger pituitary volume in both UHR subject who had transition to psychosis (p=0.05) and in FEP subjects (p=0.09) compared to healthy controls. There was no difference in pituitary volume between patients with schizophrenia combined with FEP versus healthy controls (p=0.52) or between UHR (with and without transition) and healthy controls (p=0.24). In a regression analysis, we demonstrated that the number of subjects receiving antipsychotics and pituitary volume were positively correlated. As previously reported in other samples, gender also had an impact on pituitary volume with females presenting with a larger mean volume. Results from this meta-analysis suggest that the pituitary gland could be increasing before the onset of psychosis. Both gender and use of antipsychotics have a major impact on the pituitary volume. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Draft Waste Management Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement for managing treatment, storage, and disposal of radioactive and hazardous waste. Volume 3, Appendix A: Public response to revised NOI, Appendix B: Environmental restoration, Appendix C, Environmental impact analysis methods, Appendix D, Risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-08-01

    Volume three contains appendices for the following: Public comments do DOE's proposed revisions to the scope of the waste management programmatic environmental impact statement; Environmental restoration sensitivity analysis; Environmental impacts analysis methods; and Waste management facility human health risk estimates

  19. Assessment of accident risks in the CRBRP. Volume 2. Appendices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1977-03-01

    Appendices to Volume I include core-related accident-sequence definition, CRBRP risk-assessment sequence-probability determinations, failure-probability data, accident scenario evaluation, radioactive material release analysis, ex-core accident analysis, safety philosophy and design features, calculation of reactor accident consequences, sensitivity study, and risk from fires.

  20. Probabilistic risk assessment, Volume I

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1982-01-01

    This book contains 158 papers presented at the International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Risk Assessment held by the American Nuclear Society (ANS) and the European Nuclear Society (ENS) in Port Chester, New York in 1981. The meeting was second in a series of three. The main focus of the meeting was on the safety of light water reactors. The papers discuss safety goals and risk assessment. Quantitative safety goals, risk assessment in non-nuclear technologies, and operational experience and data base are also covered. Included is an address by Dr. Chauncey Starr

  1. Risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Correa Lizarazu, X.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation Colombia risk evaluation experiences, sanitarian regulations evolution, chemical dangers food, biological dangers food, codex alimentarius, trade, industrial effects, dangers identification, data collection and risk profile

  2. Risk-based systems analysis of emerging high-level waste tank remediation technologies. Volume 2: Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peters, B.B.; Cameron, R.J.; McCormack, W.D.

    1994-08-01

    The objective of DOE's Radioactive Waste Tank Remediation Technology Focus Area is to identify and develop new technologies that will reduce the risk and/or cost of remediating DOE underground waste storage tanks and tank contents. There are, however, many more technology investment opportunities than the current budget can support. Current technology development selection methods evaluate new technologies in isolation from other components of an overall tank waste remediation system. This report describes a System Analysis Model developed under the US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Technology Development (OTD) Underground Storage Tank-Integrated Demonstration (UST-ID) program. The report identifies the project objectives and provides a description of the model. Development of the first ''demonstration'' version of this model and a trial application have been completed and the results are presented. This model will continue to evolve as it undergoes additional user review and testing

  3. Risk-based systems analysis of emerging high-level waste tank remediation technologies. Volume 2: Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peters, B.B.; Cameron, R.J.; McCormack, W.D. [Enserch Environmental Corp., Richland, WA (United States)

    1994-08-01

    The objective of DOE`s Radioactive Waste Tank Remediation Technology Focus Area is to identify and develop new technologies that will reduce the risk and/or cost of remediating DOE underground waste storage tanks and tank contents. There are, however, many more technology investment opportunities than the current budget can support. Current technology development selection methods evaluate new technologies in isolation from other components of an overall tank waste remediation system. This report describes a System Analysis Model developed under the US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Technology Development (OTD) Underground Storage Tank-Integrated Demonstration (UST-ID) program. The report identifies the project objectives and provides a description of the model. Development of the first ``demonstration`` version of this model and a trial application have been completed and the results are presented. This model will continue to evolve as it undergoes additional user review and testing.

  4. Risk Factors for Neovascular Glaucoma After Proton Beam Therapy of Uveal Melanoma: A Detailed Analysis of Tumor and Dose–Volume Parameters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mishra, Kavita K., E-mail: kmishra@radonc.ucsf.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, California (United States); Daftari, Inder K.; Weinberg, Vivian [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, California (United States); Cole, Tia [The Tumori Foundation, San Francisco, California (United States); Quivey, Jeanne M.; Castro, Joseph R.; Phillips, Theodore L. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, California (United States); Char, Devron H. [The Tumori Foundation, San Francisco, California (United States)

    2013-10-01

    Purpose: To determine neovascular glaucoma (NVG) incidence and identify contributing tumor and dosing factors in uveal melanoma patients treated with proton beam radiation therapy (PBRT). Methods and Materials: A total of 704 PBRT patients treated by a single surgeon (DHC) for uveal melanoma (1996-2010) were reviewed for NVG in our prospectively maintained database. All patients received 56 GyE in 4 fractions. Median follow-up was 58.3 months. Analyses included the Kaplan-Meier method to estimate NVG distributions, univariate log–rank tests, and Cox's proportional hazards multivariate analysis using likelihood ratio tests to identify independent risk factors of NVG among patient, tumor, and dose–volume histogram parameters. Results: The 5-year PBRT NVG rate was 12.7% (95% confidence interval [CI] 10.2%-15.9%). The 5-year rate of enucleation due to NVG was 4.9% (95% CI 3.4%-7.2%). Univariately, the NVG rate increased significantly with larger tumor diameter (P<.0001), greater height (P<.0001), higher T stage (P<.0001), and closer proximity to the disc (P=.002). Dose–volume histogram analysis revealed that if >30% of the lens or ciliary body received ≥50% dose (≥28 GyE), there was a higher probability of NVG (P<.0001 for both). Furthermore, if 100% of the disc or macula received ≥28 GyE, the NVG rate was higher (P<.0001 and P=.03, respectively). If both anterior and posterior doses were above specified cut points, NVG risk was highest (P<.0001). Multivariate analysis confirmed significant independent risk factors to include tumor height (P<.0001), age (P<.0001), %disc treated to ≥50% Dose (<100% vs 100%) (P=.0007), larger tumor diameter (P=.01), %lens treated to ≥90% Dose (0 vs >0%-30% vs >30%) (P=.01), and optic nerve length treated to ≥90% Dose (≤1 mm vs >1 mm) (P=.02). Conclusions: Our current PBRT patients experience a low rate of NVG and resultant enucleation compared with historical data. The present analysis shows that tumor height

  5. International Conference on Risk Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Oliveira, Teresa; Rigas, Alexandros; Gulati, Sneh

    2015-01-01

    This book covers the latest results in the field of risk analysis. Presented topics include probabilistic models in cancer research, models and methods in longevity, epidemiology of cancer risk, engineering reliability and economical risk problems. The contributions of this volume originate from the 5th International Conference on Risk Analysis (ICRA 5). The conference brought together researchers and practitioners working in the field of risk analysis in order to present new theoretical and computational methods with applications in biology, environmental sciences, public health, economics and finance.

  6. Information security risk analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Peltier, Thomas R

    2001-01-01

    Effective Risk AnalysisQualitative Risk AnalysisValue AnalysisOther Qualitative MethodsFacilitated Risk Analysis Process (FRAP)Other Uses of Qualitative Risk AnalysisCase StudyAppendix A: QuestionnaireAppendix B: Facilitated Risk Analysis Process FormsAppendix C: Business Impact Analysis FormsAppendix D: Sample of ReportAppendix E: Threat DefinitionsAppendix F: Other Risk Analysis OpinionsIndex

  7. Risk Factors for Neovascular Glaucoma After Proton Beam Therapy of Uveal Melanoma: A Detailed Analysis of Tumor and Dose–Volume Parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mishra, Kavita K.; Daftari, Inder K.; Weinberg, Vivian; Cole, Tia; Quivey, Jeanne M.; Castro, Joseph R.; Phillips, Theodore L.; Char, Devron H.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: To determine neovascular glaucoma (NVG) incidence and identify contributing tumor and dosing factors in uveal melanoma patients treated with proton beam radiation therapy (PBRT). Methods and Materials: A total of 704 PBRT patients treated by a single surgeon (DHC) for uveal melanoma (1996-2010) were reviewed for NVG in our prospectively maintained database. All patients received 56 GyE in 4 fractions. Median follow-up was 58.3 months. Analyses included the Kaplan-Meier method to estimate NVG distributions, univariate log–rank tests, and Cox's proportional hazards multivariate analysis using likelihood ratio tests to identify independent risk factors of NVG among patient, tumor, and dose–volume histogram parameters. Results: The 5-year PBRT NVG rate was 12.7% (95% confidence interval [CI] 10.2%-15.9%). The 5-year rate of enucleation due to NVG was 4.9% (95% CI 3.4%-7.2%). Univariately, the NVG rate increased significantly with larger tumor diameter (P 30% of the lens or ciliary body received ≥50% dose (≥28 GyE), there was a higher probability of NVG (P 0%-30% vs >30%) (P=.01), and optic nerve length treated to ≥90% Dose (≤1 mm vs >1 mm) (P=.02). Conclusions: Our current PBRT patients experience a low rate of NVG and resultant enucleation compared with historical data. The present analysis shows that tumor height, diameter, and anterior as well as posterior critical structure dose–volume parameters may be used to predict NVG risk

  8. MPCV Exercise Operational Volume Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Godfrey, A.; Humphreys, B.; Funk, J.; Perusek, G.; Lewandowski, B. E.

    2017-01-01

    In order to minimize the loss of bone and muscle mass during spaceflight, the Multi-purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) will include an exercise device and enough free space within the cabin for astronauts to use the device effectively. The NASA Digital Astronaut Project (DAP) has been tasked with using computational modeling to aid in determining whether or not the available operational volume is sufficient for in-flight exercise.Motion capture data was acquired using a 12-camera Smart DX system (BTS Bioengineering, Brooklyn, NY), while exercisers performed 9 resistive exercises without volume restrictions in a 1g environment. Data were collected from two male subjects, one being in the 99th percentile of height and the other in the 50th percentile of height, using between 25 and 60 motion capture markers. Motion capture data was also recorded as a third subject, also near the 50th percentile in height, performed aerobic rowing during a parabolic flight. A motion capture system and algorithms developed previously and presented at last years HRP-IWS were utilized to collect and process the data from the parabolic flight [1]. These motions were applied to a scaled version of a biomechanical model within the biomechanical modeling software OpenSim [2], and the volume sweeps of the motions were visually assessed against an imported CAD model of the operational volume. Further numerical analysis was performed using Matlab (Mathworks, Natick, MA) and the OpenSim API. This analysis determined the location of every marker in space over the duration of the exercise motion, and the distance of each marker to the nearest surface of the volume. Containment of the exercise motions within the operational volume was determined on a per-exercise and per-subject basis. The orientation of the exerciser and the angle of the footplate were two important factors upon which containment was dependent. Regions where the exercise motion exceeds the bounds of the operational volume have been

  9. Space shuttle/payload interface analysis. Volume 4: Business Risk and Value of Operations in Space (BRAVO). Part 1: Summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    1974-01-01

    Background information is provided which emphasizes the philosophy behind analytical techniques used in the business risk and value of operations in space (BRAVO) study. The focus of the summary is on the general approach, operation of the procedures, and the status of the study. For Vol. 1, see N74-12493; for Vol. 2, see N74-14530.

  10. Dose-volume histogram analysis for risk factors of radiation-induced rib fracture after hypofractionated proton beam therapy for hepatocellular carcinoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanemoto, Ayae

    2013-01-01

    Background: Radiation-induced rib fracture has been reported as a late complication after external radiotherapy to the chest. The purpose of this study was to clarify the characteristics and risk factors of rib fracture after hypofractionated proton beam therapy (PBT). Material and methods: The retrospective study comprised 67 patients with hepatocellular carcinoma who were treated using PBT of 66 Cobalt-Gray-equivalents [Gy (RBE)] in 10 fractions. We analyzed the patients' characteristics and determined dose-volume histograms (DVHs) for the irradiated ribs, and then estimated relationships between risk of fracture and several dose-volume parameters. An irradiated rib was defined to be any rib included in the area irradiated by PBT as determined by treatment-planning computed tomography. Results. Among the 67 patients, a total of 310 ribs were identified as irradiated ribs. Twenty-seven (8.7%) of the irradiated ribs developed fractures in 11 patients (16.4%). No significant relationships were seen between incidence of fracture and characteristics of patients, including sex, age, tumor size, tumor site, and follow-up period (p ≥ 0.05). The results of receiver operating characteristic curve analysis using DVH parameters demonstrated that the largest area under the curve (AUC) was observed for the volume of rib receiving a biologically effective dose of more than 60 Gy 3 (RBE) (V60) [The equivalent dose in 2 Gy fractions (EQD2); 36 Gy 3 ] and the AUCs of V30 to V120 (EQD2; 18-72 Gy 3 ) and D max to D 1 0 cm 3 were similar to that of V60. No significant relationships were seen for DVH parameters and intervals from PBT to incidence of fracture. Conclusion. DVH parameters are useful in predicting late adverse events of rib irradiation. This study identified that V60 was a most statistically significant parameter, and V30 to V120 and D max to D 1 0 cm 3 were also significant and clinically useful for estimating the risk of rib fracture after hypofractionated PBT

  11. Dose-volume histogram analysis for risk factors of radiation-induced rib fracture after hypofractionated proton beam therapy for hepatocellular carcinoma

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kanemoto, Ayae [Proton Medical Research Center and Dept. of Radiation Oncology, Univ. of Tsukuba, Ibaraki (Japan)], e-mail: ayaek@pmrc.tsukuba.ac.jp [and others

    2013-04-15

    Background: Radiation-induced rib fracture has been reported as a late complication after external radiotherapy to the chest. The purpose of this study was to clarify the characteristics and risk factors of rib fracture after hypofractionated proton beam therapy (PBT). Material and methods: The retrospective study comprised 67 patients with hepatocellular carcinoma who were treated using PBT of 66 Cobalt-Gray-equivalents [Gy (RBE)] in 10 fractions. We analyzed the patients' characteristics and determined dose-volume histograms (DVHs) for the irradiated ribs, and then estimated relationships between risk of fracture and several dose-volume parameters. An irradiated rib was defined to be any rib included in the area irradiated by PBT as determined by treatment-planning computed tomography. Results. Among the 67 patients, a total of 310 ribs were identified as irradiated ribs. Twenty-seven (8.7%) of the irradiated ribs developed fractures in 11 patients (16.4%). No significant relationships were seen between incidence of fracture and characteristics of patients, including sex, age, tumor size, tumor site, and follow-up period (p {>=} 0.05). The results of receiver operating characteristic curve analysis using DVH parameters demonstrated that the largest area under the curve (AUC) was observed for the volume of rib receiving a biologically effective dose of more than 60 Gy{sub 3} (RBE) (V60) [The equivalent dose in 2 Gy fractions (EQD2); 36 Gy{sub 3}] and the AUCs of V30 to V120 (EQD2; 18-72 Gy{sub 3}) and D{sub max} to D{sub 1}0{sub cm}{sup 3} were similar to that of V60. No significant relationships were seen for DVH parameters and intervals from PBT to incidence of fracture. Conclusion. DVH parameters are useful in predicting late adverse events of rib irradiation. This study identified that V60 was a most statistically significant parameter, and V30 to V120 and D{sub max} to D{sub 1}0{sub cm}{sup 3} were also significant and clinically useful for estimating

  12. Draft Waste Management Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement for managing treatment, storage, and disposal of radioactive and hazardous waste. Volume 3, Appendix A: Public response to revised NOI, Appendix B: Environmental restoration, Appendix C, Environmental impact analysis methods, Appendix D, Risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-08-01

    Volume three contains appendices for the following: Public comments do DOE`s proposed revisions to the scope of the waste management programmatic environmental impact statement; Environmental restoration sensitivity analysis; Environmental impacts analysis methods; and Waste management facility human health risk estimates.

  13. Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE), Version 5.0: Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) reference manual. Volume 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russell, K.D.; Kvarfordt, K.J.; Skinner, N.L.; Wood, S.T.; Rasmuson, D.M.

    1994-07-01

    The Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE) refers to a set of several microcomputer programs that were developed to create and analyze probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs), primarily for nuclear power plants. The Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) is a state-of-the-art, microcomputer-based probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model development and analysis tool to address key nuclear plant safety issues. IRRAS is an integrated software tool that gives the use the ability to create and analyze fault trees and accident sequences using a microcomputer. This program provides functions that range from graphical fault tree construction to cut set generation and quantification to report generation. Version 1.0 of the IRRAS program was released in February of 1987. Since then, many user comments and enhancements have been incorporated into the program providing a much more powerful and user-friendly system. This version has been designated IRRAS 5.0 and is the subject of this Reference Manual. Version 5.0 of IRRAS provides the same capabilities as earlier versions and ads the ability to perform location transformations, seismic analysis, and provides enhancements to the user interface as well as improved algorithm performance. Additionally, version 5.0 contains new alphanumeric fault tree and event used for event tree rules, recovery rules, and end state partitioning

  14. Space shuttle/payload interface analysis. Volume 4: Business Risk and Value of Operations in Space (BRAVO). Part 3: Workbook

    Science.gov (United States)

    1974-01-01

    A collection of blank worksheets for use on each BRAVO problem to be analyzed is supplied, for the purposes of recording the inputs for the BRAVO analysis, working out the definition of mission equipment, recording inputs to the satellite synthesis computer program, estimating satellite earth station costs, costing terrestrial systems, and cost effectiveness calculations. The group of analysts working BRAVO will normally use a set of worksheets on each problem, however, the workbook pages are of sufficiently good quality that the user can duplicate them, if more worksheet blanks are required than supplied. For Vol. 1, see N74-12493; for Vol. 2, see N74-14530.

  15. Risk-based systems analysis of emerging high-level waste tank remediation technologies. Volume 1: Executive summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peters, B.B.; Cameron, R.J.; McCormack, W.D.

    1994-08-01

    This report describes a System Analysis Model developed under the US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Technology Development (OTD) Underground Storage Tank-Integrated Demonstration (UST-ID) program to aid technology development funding decisions for radioactive tank waste remediation. Current technology development selection methods evaluate new technologies in isolation from other components of an overall tank waste remediation system. These methods do not show the relative effect of new technologies on tank remediation systems as a whole. Consequently, DOE may spend its resources on technologies that promise to improve a single function but have a small or possibly negative, impact on the overall system, or DOE may overlook a technology that does not address a high priority problem in the system but that does, if implemented, offer sufficient overall improvements. Systems engineering and detailed analyses often conducted under the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA 1969) use a ''whole system'' approach but are costly, too time-consuming, and often not sufficiently focused to support the needs of the technology program decision-makers. An alternative approach is required to evaluate these systems impacts but still meet the budget and schedule needs of the technology program

  16. Foundations of Risk Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Aven, Terje

    2012-01-01

    Foundations of Risk Analysis presents the issues core to risk analysis - understanding what risk means, expressing risk, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real problems. The author provides the readers with the knowledge and basic thinking they require to successfully manage risk and uncertainty to support decision making. This updated edition reflects recent developments on risk and uncertainty concepts, representations and treatment. New material in Foundations of Risk Analysis includes:An up to date presentation of how to understand, define and

  17. In-treatment stroke volume predicts cardiovascular risk in hypertension

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lønnebakken, Mai T; Gerdts, Eva; Boman, Kurt

    2011-01-01

    , the prespecified primary study endpoint, was assessed in Cox regression analysis using data from baseline and annual follow-up visits in 855 patients during 4.8 years of randomized losartan-based or atenolol-based treatment in the Losartan Intervention For Endpoint reduction in hypertension (LIFE) echocardiography...... with higher risk of cardiovascular events {hazard ratio 1.69 per 1 SD (6 ml/m2.04) lower stroke volume [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.35–2.11], P secondary model also independent of stress-corrected midwall shortening......, hence, adds information on cardiovascular risk in treated hypertensive patients beyond assessment of left ventricular structure alone....

  18. Bare-Hand Volume Cracker for Raw Volume Data Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bireswar Laha

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Analysis of raw volume data generated from different scanning technologies faces a variety of challenges, related to search, pattern recognition, spatial understanding, quantitative estimation, and shape description. In a previous study, we found that the Volume Cracker (VC 3D interaction (3DI technique mitigated some of these problems, but this result was from a tethered glove-based system with users analyzing simulated data. Here, we redesigned the VC by using untethered bare-hand interaction with real volume datasets, with a broader aim of adoption of this technique in research labs. We developed symmetric and asymmetric interfaces for the Bare-Hand Volume Cracker (BHVC through design iterations with a biomechanics scientist. We evaluated our asymmetric BHVC technique against standard 2D and widely used 3D interaction techniques with experts analyzing scanned beetle datasets. We found that our BHVC design significantly outperformed the other two techniques. This study contributes a practical 3DI design for scientists, documents lessons learned while redesigning for bare-hand trackers, and provides evidence suggesting that 3D interaction could improve volume data analysis for a variety of visual analysis tasks. Our contribution is in the realm of 3D user interfaces tightly integrated with visualization, for improving the effectiveness of visual analysis of volume datasets. Based on our experience, we also provide some insights into hardware-agnostic principles for design of effective interaction techniques.

  19. Volume of high-risk intratumoral subregions at multi-parametric MR imaging predicts overall survival and complements molecular analysis of glioblastoma

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cui, Yi; Li, Ruijiang [Stanford University, Department of Radiation Oncology, Palo Alto, CA (United States); Hokkaido University, Global Station for Quantum Medical Science and Engineering, Global Institution for Collaborative Research and Education, Hokkaido (Japan); Ren, Shangjie [Tianjin University, School of Electrical Engineering and Automation, Tianjin Shi (China); Tha, Khin Khin; Shirato, Hiroki [Hokkaido University, Global Station for Quantum Medical Science and Engineering, Global Institution for Collaborative Research and Education, Hokkaido (Japan); Hokkaido University, Department of Radiology and Nuclear Medicine, Hokkaido (Japan); Wu, Jia [Stanford University, Department of Radiation Oncology, Palo Alto, CA (United States)

    2017-09-15

    To develop and validate a volume-based, quantitative imaging marker by integrating multi-parametric MR images for predicting glioblastoma survival, and to investigate its relationship and synergy with molecular characteristics. We retrospectively analysed 108 patients with primary glioblastoma. The discovery cohort consisted of 62 patients from the cancer genome atlas (TCGA). Another 46 patients comprising 30 from TCGA and 16 internally were used for independent validation. Based on integrated analyses of T1-weighted contrast-enhanced (T1-c) and diffusion-weighted MR images, we identified an intratumoral subregion with both high T1-c and low ADC, and accordingly defined a high-risk volume (HRV). We evaluated its prognostic value and biological significance with genomic data. On both discovery and validation cohorts, HRV predicted overall survival (OS) (concordance index: 0.642 and 0.653, P < 0.001 and P = 0.038, respectively). HRV stratified patients within the proneural molecular subtype (log-rank P = 0.040, hazard ratio = 2.787). We observed different OS among patients depending on their MGMT methylation status and HRV (log-rank P = 0.011). Patients with unmethylated MGMT and high HRV had significantly shorter survival (median survival: 9.3 vs. 18.4 months, log-rank P = 0.002). Volume of the high-risk intratumoral subregion identified on multi-parametric MRI predicts glioblastoma survival, and may provide complementary value to genomic information. (orig.)

  20. Observations on risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, W.A. Jr.

    1979-11-01

    This paper briefly describes WASH 1400 and the Lewis report. It attempts to define basic concepts such as risk and risk analysis, common mode failure, and rare event. Several probabilistic models which go beyond the WASH 1400 methodology are introduced; the common characteristic of these models is that they recognize explicitly that risk analysis is time dependent whereas WASH 1400 takes a per demand failure rate approach which obscures the important fact that accidents are time related. Further, the presentation of a realistic risk analysis should recognize that there are various risks which compete with one another for the lives of the individuals at risk. A way of doing this is suggested

  1. A background to risk analysis. Vol. 3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, J.R.

    1979-01-01

    This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles, and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justifi- cation or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appenix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 3 contains chapters on quantification of risk, failure and accident probability, risk analysis and design, and examles of risk analysis for process plant. (BP)

  2. A background risk analysis. Vol. 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, J.R.

    1979-01-01

    This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles, and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques, described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justification or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appendix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 1 contains a short history of risk analysis, and chapters on risk, failures, errors and accidents, and general procedures for risk analysis. (BP)

  3. Is risk analysis scientific?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansson, Sven Ove; Aven, Terje

    2014-07-01

    This article discusses to what extent risk analysis is scientific in view of a set of commonly used definitions and criteria. We consider scientific knowledge to be characterized by its subject matter, its success in developing the best available knowledge in its fields of study, and the epistemic norms and values that guide scientific investigations. We proceed to assess the field of risk analysis according to these criteria. For this purpose, we use a model for risk analysis in which science is used as a base for decision making on risks, which covers the five elements evidence, knowledge base, broad risk evaluation, managerial review and judgment, and the decision; and that relates these elements to the domains experts and decisionmakers, and to the domains fact-based or value-based. We conclude that risk analysis is a scientific field of study, when understood as consisting primarily of (i) knowledge about risk-related phenomena, processes, events, etc., and (ii) concepts, theories, frameworks, approaches, principles, methods and models to understand, assess, characterize, communicate, and manage risk, in general and for specific applications (the instrumental part). © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  4. Comparative risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niehaus, F.

    1988-01-01

    In this paper, the risks of various energy systems are discussed considering severe accidents analysis, particularly the probabilistic safety analysis, and probabilistic safety criteria, and the applications of these criteria and analysis. The comparative risk analysis has demonstrated that the largest source of risk in every society is from daily small accidents. Nevertheless, we have to be more concerned about severe accidents. The comparative risk analysis of five different energy systems (coal, oil, gas, LWR and STEC (Solar)) for the public has shown that the main sources of risks are coal and oil. The latest comparative risk study of various energy has been conducted in the USA and has revealed that the number of victims from coal is 42 as many than victims from nuclear. A study for severe accidents from hydro-dams in United States has estimated the probability of dam failures at 1 in 10,000 years and the number of victims between 11,000 and 260,000. The average occupational risk from coal is one fatal accident in 1,000 workers/year. The probabilistic safety analysis is a method that can be used to assess nuclear energy risks, and to analyze the severe accidents, and to model all possible accident sequences and consequences. The 'Fault tree' analysis is used to know the probability of failure of the different systems at each point of accident sequences and to calculate the probability of risks. After calculating the probability of failure, the criteria for judging the numerical results have to be developed, that is the quantitative and qualitative goals. To achieve these goals, several systems have been devised by various countries members of AIEA. The probabilistic safety ana-lysis method has been developed by establishing a computer program permit-ting to know different categories of safety related information. 19 tabs. (author)

  5. Information Security Risk Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Peltier, Thomas R

    2010-01-01

    Offers readers with the knowledge and the skill-set needed to achieve a highly effective risk analysis assessment. This title demonstrates how to identify threats and then determine if those threats pose a real risk. It is suitable for industry and academia professionals.

  6. Risk factors influencing the pleural drainage volume after transthoracic oesophagectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kosugi, Shin-ichi; Kanda, Tatsuo; Yajima, Kazuhito; Ishikawa, Takashi; Sakamoto, Kaoru

    2013-06-01

    The objective of this study was to clarify the factors influencing pleural drainage volume after transthoracic oesophagectomy and to determine criteria for the selection of patients who would benefit from the early removal of chest drains. Clinicopathological characteristics of 155 patients who underwent transthoracic oesophagectomy were prospectively collected, and the daily drainage volume of each patient was retrospectively reviewed. Potential risk factors were compared between the high-output group (n = 39) and low-output group (n = 116), which were dichotomized using the 75th percentile of total pleural drainage volume of the total study population. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify independent risk factors. The median duration of drainage was 10 days, with a median total drainage volume of 2258 ml. Of 27 potential risk factors influencing the drainage volume, creatinine clearance (P = 0.04), operative approach (P = 0.03) and thoracic duct removal (P = 0.01) were significantly associated with the total pleural drainage volume. The removal of the thoracic duct (P = 0.02; odds ratio, 4.02; 95% confidence interval 1.20-13.41) and lower creatinine clearance (P = 0.04; odds ratio, 1.02; 95% confidence interval 1.00-1.04) was independent risk factors for increased pleural drainage volume after transthoracic oesophagectomy. The early removal of chest drains may be possible in patients without these risk factors.

  7. Probabilistic risk assessment of the Space Shuttle. Phase 3: A study of the potential of losing the vehicle during nominal operation. Volume 4: System models and data analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fragola, Joseph R.; Maggio, Gaspare; Frank, Michael V.; Gerez, Luis; Mcfadden, Richard H.; Collins, Erin P.; Ballesio, Jorge; Appignani, Peter L.; Karns, James J.

    1995-01-01

    In this volume, volume 4 (of five volumes), the discussion is focussed on the system models and related data references and has the following subsections: space shuttle main engine, integrated solid rocket booster, orbiter auxiliary power units/hydraulics, and electrical power system.

  8. Twenty-fifth water reactor safety information meeting: Proceedings. Volume 2: Human reliability analysis and human performance evaluation; Technical issues related to rulemakings; Risk-informed, performance-based initiatives; High burn-up fuel research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monteleone, S.

    1998-03-01

    This three-volume report contains papers presented at the conference. The papers are printed in the order of their presentation in each session and describe progress and results of programs in nuclear safety research conducted in this country and abroad. Foreign participation in the meeting included papers presented by researchers from France, Japan, Norway, and Russia. The titles of the papers and the names of the authors have been updated and may differ from those that appeared in the final program of the meeting. This volume contains the following: (1) human reliability analysis and human performance evaluation; (2) technical issues related to rulemakings; (3) risk-informed, performance-based initiatives; and (4) high burn-up fuel research

  9. Twenty-fifth water reactor safety information meeting: Proceedings. Volume 2: Human reliability analysis and human performance evaluation; Technical issues related to rulemakings; Risk-informed, performance-based initiatives; High burn-up fuel research

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Monteleone, S. [comp.] [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States)

    1998-03-01

    This three-volume report contains papers presented at the conference. The papers are printed in the order of their presentation in each session and describe progress and results of programs in nuclear safety research conducted in this country and abroad. Foreign participation in the meeting included papers presented by researchers from France, Japan, Norway, and Russia. The titles of the papers and the names of the authors have been updated and may differ from those that appeared in the final program of the meeting. This volume contains the following: (1) human reliability analysis and human performance evaluation; (2) technical issues related to rulemakings; (3) risk-informed, performance-based initiatives; and (4) high burn-up fuel research. Selected papers have been indexed separately for inclusion in the Energy Science and Technology Database.

  10. Component of the risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martinez, I.; Campon, G.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation reviews issues like analysis of risk (Codex), management risk, preliminary activities manager, relationship between government and industries, microbiological danger and communication of risk

  11. Diversion path analysis handbook. Volume 2 (of 4 volumes). Example

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goodwin, K.E.; Schleter, J.C.; Maltese, M.D.K.

    1978-11-01

    Volume 2 of the Handbook is divided into two parts, the workpaper documentation and the summary documentation. The former sets forth, in terms of the hypothetical process, the analysis guidelines, the information gathered, the characterization of the process, the specific diversion paths related to the process, and, finally, the results and findings of the Diversion Path Analysis (DPA). The summary documentation, made up of portions of sections already prepared for the workpapers, is a concise statement of results and recommendations for management use. Most of the details available in the workpapers are not used, or are held to a minimum, in this report. Also, some rearrangement of the excerpted sections has been made in order to permit rapid comprehension by a manager having only limited time to devote to study and review of the analysis

  12. Unsharpness-risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Preyssl, C.

    1986-01-01

    Safety analysis provides the only tool for evaluation and quantification of rare or hypothetical events leading to system failure. So far probability theory has been used for the fault- and event-tree methodology. The phenomenon of uncertainties constitutes an important aspect in risk analysis. Uncertainties can be classified as originating from 'randomness' or 'fuzziness'. Probability theory addresses randomness only. The use of 'fuzzy set theory' makes it possible to include both types of uncertainty in the mathematical model of risk analysis. Thus the 'fuzzy fault tree' is expressed in 'possibilistic' terms implying a range of simplifications and improvements. 'Human failure' and 'conditionality' can be treated correctly. Only minimum-maximum relations are used to combine the possibility distributions of events. Various event-classifications facilitate the interpretation of the results. The method is demonstrated by application to a TRIGA-research reactor. Uncertainty as an implicit part of 'fuzzy risk' can be quantified explicitly using an 'uncertainty measure'. Based on this the 'degree of relative compliance' with a quantizative safety goal can be defined for a particular risk. The introduction of 'weighting functionals' guarantees the consideration of the importances attached to different parts of the risk exceeding or complying with the standard. The comparison of two reference systems is demonstrated in a case study. It is concluded that any application of the 'fuzzy risk analysis' has to be free of any hypostatization when reducing subjective to objective information. (Author)

  13. Recurrence interval analysis of trading volumes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Fei; Zhou, Wei-Xing

    2010-06-01

    We study the statistical properties of the recurrence intervals τ between successive trading volumes exceeding a certain threshold q. The recurrence interval analysis is carried out for the 20 liquid Chinese stocks covering a period from January 2000 to May 2009, and two Chinese indices from January 2003 to April 2009. Similar to the recurrence interval distribution of the price returns, the tail of the recurrence interval distribution of the trading volumes follows a power-law scaling, and the results are verified by the goodness-of-fit tests using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) statistic, the weighted KS statistic and the Cramér-von Mises criterion. The measurements of the conditional probability distribution and the detrended fluctuation function show that both short-term and long-term memory effects exist in the recurrence intervals between trading volumes. We further study the relationship between trading volumes and price returns based on the recurrence interval analysis method. It is found that large trading volumes are more likely to occur following large price returns, and the comovement between trading volumes and price returns is more pronounced for large trading volumes.

  14. Decomposition analysis of differential dose volume histograms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heuvel, Frank van den

    2006-01-01

    Dose volume histograms are a common tool to assess the value of a treatment plan for various forms of radiation therapy treatment. The purpose of this work is to introduce, validate, and apply a set of tools to analyze differential dose volume histograms by decomposing them into physically and clinically meaningful normal distributions. A weighted sum of the decomposed normal distributions (e.g., weighted dose) is proposed as a new measure of target dose, rather than the more unstable point dose. The method and its theory are presented and validated using simulated distributions. Additional validation is performed by analyzing simple four field box techniques encompassing a predefined target, using different treatment energies inside a water phantom. Furthermore, two clinical situations are analyzed using this methodology to illustrate practical usefulness. A comparison of a treatment plan for a breast patient using a tangential field setup with wedges is compared to a comparable geometry using dose compensators. Finally, a normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) calculation is refined using this decomposition. The NTCP calculation is performed on a liver as organ at risk in a treatment of a mesothelioma patient with involvement of the right lung. The comparison of the wedged breast treatment versus the compensator technique yields comparable classical dose parameters (e.g., conformity index ≅1 and equal dose at the ICRU dose point). The methodology proposed here shows a 4% difference in weighted dose outlining the difference in treatment using a single parameter instead of at least two in a classical analysis (e.g., mean dose, and maximal dose, or total dose variance). NTCP-calculations for the mesothelioma case are generated automatically and show a 3% decrease with respect to the classical calculation. The decrease is slightly dependant on the fractionation and on the α/β-value utilized. In conclusion, this method is able to distinguish clinically

  15. Adversarial risk analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Banks, David L; Rios Insua, David

    2015-01-01

    Flexible Models to Analyze Opponent Behavior A relatively new area of research, adversarial risk analysis (ARA) informs decision making when there are intelligent opponents and uncertain outcomes. Adversarial Risk Analysis develops methods for allocating defensive or offensive resources against intelligent adversaries. Many examples throughout illustrate the application of the ARA approach to a variety of games and strategic situations. The book shows decision makers how to build Bayesian models for the strategic calculation of their opponents, enabling decision makers to maximize their expected utility or minimize their expected loss. This new approach to risk analysis asserts that analysts should use Bayesian thinking to describe their beliefs about an opponent's goals, resources, optimism, and type of strategic calculation, such as minimax and level-k thinking. Within that framework, analysts then solve the problem from the perspective of the opponent while placing subjective probability distributions on a...

  16. A background to risk analysis. Vol. 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, J.R.

    1979-01-01

    This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justification or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appendix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 2 treats generic methods of qualitative failure analysis. (BP)

  17. Initial 12-h operative fluid volume is an independent risk factor for pleural effusion after hepatectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Xiang; Wu, Jia-Wei; Sun, Ping; Song, Zi-Fang; Zheng, Qi-Chang

    2016-12-01

    Pleural effusion after hepatectomy is associated with significant morbidity and prolonged hospital stays. Several studies have addressed the risk factors for postoperative pleural effusion. However, there are no researches concerning the role of the initial 12-h operative fluid volume. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether the initial 12-h operative fluid volume during liver resection is an independent risk factor for pleural effusion after hepatectomy. In this study, we retrospectively analyzed clinical data of 470 patients consecutively undergoing elective hepatectomy between January 2011 and December 2012. We prospectively collected and retrospectively analyzed baseline and clinical data, including preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative variables. Univariate and multivariate analyses were carried out to identify whether the initial 12-h operative fluid volume was an independent risk factor for pleural effusion after hepatectomy. The multivariate analysis identified 2 independent risk factors for pleural effusion: operative time [odds ratio (OR)=10.2] and initial 12-h operative fluid volume (OR=1.0003). Threshold effect analyses revealed that the initial 12 h operative fluid volume was positively correlated with the incidence of pleural effusion when the initial 12-h operative fluid volume exceeded 4636 mL. We conclude that the initial 12-h operative fluid volume during liver resection and operative time are independent risk factors for pleural effusion after hepatectomy. Perioperative intravenous fluids should be restricted properly.

  18. A background to risk analysis. Vol. 4

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, J.R.

    1979-01-01

    This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles, and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justification or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appendix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 4 treats human error in plant operation. (BP)

  19. Environmental risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lima-e-Silva, Pedro Paulo de

    1996-01-01

    The conventional Risk Analysis (RA) relates usually a certain undesired event frequency with its consequences. Such technique is used nowadays in Brazil to analyze accidents and their consequences strictly under the human approach, valuing loss of human equipment, human structures and human lives, without considering the damage caused to natural resources that keep life possible on Earth. This paradigm was developed primarily because of the Homo sapiens' lack of perception upon the natural web needed to sustain his own life. In reality, the Brazilian professionals responsible today for licensing, auditing and inspecting environmental aspects of human activities face huge difficulties in making technical specifications and procedures leading to acceptable levels of impact, furthermore considering the intrinsic difficulties to define those levels. Therefore, in Brazil the RA technique is a weak tool for licensing for many reasons, and of them are its short scope (only accident considerations) and wrong a paradigm (only human direct damages). A paper from the author about the former was already proposed to the 7th International Conference on Environmetrics, past July'96, USP-SP. This one discusses the extension of the risk analysis concept to take into account environmental consequences, transforming the conventional analysis into a broader methodology named here as Environmental Risk Analysis. (author)

  20. Assessment of Uncertainty-Based Screening Volumes for NASA Robotic LEO and GEO Conjunction Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narvet, Steven W.; Frigm, Ryan C.; Hejduk, Matthew D.

    2011-01-01

    Conjunction Assessment operations require screening assets against the space object catalog by placing a pre-determined spatial volume around each asset and predicting when another object will violate that volume. The selection of the screening volume used for each spacecraft is a trade-off between observing all conjunction events that may pose a potential risk to the primary spacecraft and the ability to analyze those predicted events. If the screening volumes are larger, then more conjunctions can be observed and therefore the probability of a missed detection of a high risk conjunction event is small; however, the amount of data which needs to be analyzed increases. This paper characterizes the sensitivity of screening volume size to capturing typical orbit uncertainties and the expected number of conjunction events observed. These sensitivities are quantified in the form of a trade space that allows for selection of appropriate screen-ing volumes to fit the desired concept of operations, system limitations, and tolerable analyst workloads. This analysis will specifically highlight the screening volume determination and selection process for use in the NASA Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis process but will also provide a general framework for other Owner / Operators faced with similar decisions.

  1. Risk analysis and reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uppuluri, V.R.R.

    1979-01-01

    Mathematical foundations of risk analysis are addressed. The importance of having the same probability space in order to compare different experiments is pointed out. Then the following topics are discussed: consequences as random variables with infinite expectations; the phenomenon of rare events; series-parallel systems and different kinds of randomness that could be imposed on such systems; and the problem of consensus of estimates of expert opinion

  2. Effect of Thyroid Remnant Volume on the Risk of Hypothyroidism After Hemithyroidectomy: A Prospective Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lang, Brian Hung-Hin; Wong, Carlos K H; Wong, Kai Pun; Chu, Kelvin Ka-Wan; Shek, Tony W H

    2017-06-01

    Hypothyroidism is a common sequel after a hemithyroidectomy. Although various risk factors leading to hypothyroidism have been reported, the effect of the contralateral lobe's volume has been understudied. This study aimed to examine the association between the preoperative contralateral lobe's volume and the risk of postoperative hypothyroidism. During a 2-year period, 150 eligible patients undergoing a hemithyroidectomy were evaluated. The volume of the contralateral nonexcised lobe was estimated preoperatively by independent assessors on ultrasonography using the following formula: width (in cm) × depth (in cm) × length (in cm) × (π/6), adjusted for the body surface area (BSA). Postoperative hypothyroidism was defined as serum thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) exceeding 4.78 mIU/L. Any significant characteristics in the univariate analysis were entered into the multivariate analysis to determine independent factors. After a mean follow-up period of 53.5 ± 9.4 months, 44 patients (29.3 %) experienced postoperative hypothyroidism, and 10 of these patients required thyroxine replacement. Hypothyroidism was associated with a higher preoperative TSH level (p hypothyroidism. Patients with a BSA-adjusted volume smaller than 3.2 ml had a threefold greater hypothyroidism risk than those with a BSA-adjusted volume of 3.2 ml or more (p hypothyroidism risk was observed after hemithyroidectomy. Together with a higher preoperative TSH level and fewer ipsilateral nodules, a smaller BSA-adjusted volume measured by preoperative ultrasonography independently predicted hypothyroidism.

  3. MEAN PLATELET VOLUME AND RISK OF THROMBOTIC STROKE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prasantha Kumar Thankappan

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND Stroke is a major cause of long term morbidity and mortality. Several factors are known to increase the liability to stroke. Platelets play a crucial role in the pathogenesis of atherosclerotic complications, contributing to thrombus formation. Platelet size (mean platelet volume, MPV is a marker and possible determinant of platelet function, large platelets being potentially more reactive. Hence an attempt has-been made to study the association if any between mean platelet volume and thrombotic stroke. The aim of this study was to determine whether an association exists between Mean Platelet Volume (MPV and thrombotic stroke. MATERIALS AND METHODS The study is a case control study and data was collected at Government Medical College Hospital, Kottayam, Kerala a tertiary care referral centre. The study was carried out among fifty patients diagnosed with thrombotic stroke and presenting to the hospital within forty eight hours of onset of symptoms. Fifty age group and sex matched controls were also recruited. Mean platelet volume was obtained using a SYSMEX automated analyser. RESULTS This study has shown a statistically significant relation between mean platelet volume and risk of thrombotic stroke but no statistically significant correlation between clinical severity of stroke and mean platelet volume. CONCLUSION This study has shown an elevation of MPV in acute phase of thrombotic stroke. Platelet mass was found to be more or less a constant. This study did not find a statistically significant correlation between clinical severity of stroke and mean platelet volume.

  4. Limitations of the planning organ at risk volume (PRV) concept.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stroom, Joep C; Heijmen, Ben J M

    2006-09-01

    Previously, we determined a planning target volume (PTV) margin recipe for geometrical errors in radiotherapy equal to M(T) = 2 Sigma + 0.7 sigma, with Sigma and sigma standard deviations describing systematic and random errors, respectively. In this paper, we investigated margins for organs at risk (OAR), yielding the so-called planning organ at risk volume (PRV). For critical organs with a maximum dose (D(max)) constraint, we calculated margins such that D(max) in the PRV is equal to the motion averaged D(max) in the (moving) clinical target volume (CTV). We studied margins for the spinal cord in 10 head-and-neck cases and 10 lung cases, each with two different clinical plans. For critical organs with a dose-volume constraint, we also investigated whether a margin recipe was feasible. For the 20 spinal cords considered, the average margin recipe found was: M(R) = 1.6 Sigma + 0.2 sigma with variations for systematic and random errors of 1.2 Sigma to 1.8 Sigma and -0.2 sigma to 0.6 sigma, respectively. The variations were due to differences in shape and position of the dose distributions with respect to the cords. The recipe also depended significantly on the volume definition of D(max). For critical organs with a dose-volume constraint, the PRV concept appears even less useful because a margin around, e.g., the rectum changes the volume in such a manner that dose-volume constraints stop making sense. The concept of PRV for planning of radiotherapy is of limited use. Therefore, alternative ways should be developed to include geometric uncertainties of OARs in radiotherapy planning.

  5. Mare Risk Analysis monitor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fuente Prieto, I.; Alonso, P.; Carretero Fernandino, J. A.

    2000-01-01

    The Nuclear Safety Council's requirement that Spanish power plants comply with the requirements of the Maintenance Rule associated with plant risk assessment during power operation, arising from the partial unavailability of systems due to the maintenance activities, has led to need for additional tools to facilitate compliance with said requirements. While the impact on risk produced by individual equipment unavailabilities can easily be evaluated, either qualitatively or quantitatively, the process becomes more complicated when un programmed unavailabilities simultaneously occur in various systems, making it necessary to evaluate their functional impact. It is especially complex in the case of support systems that can affect the functionality of multiple systems. In view of the above, a computer application has been developed that is capable of providing the operator with quick answers based on the specific plant model in order to allow fast risk assessment using the information compiled as part of the Probabilistic Safety Analysis. The paper describes the most important characteristics of this application and the basic design requirements of the MARE Risk Monitor. (Author)

  6. Methods for Risk Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alverbro, Karin

    2010-01-01

    Many decision-making situations today affect humans and the environment. In practice, many such decisions are made without an overall view and prioritise one or other of the two areas. Now and then these two areas of regulation come into conflict, e.g. the best alternative as regards environmental considerations is not always the best from a human safety perspective and vice versa. This report was prepared within a major project with the aim of developing a framework in which both the environmental aspects and the human safety aspects are integrated, and decisions can be made taking both fields into consideration. The safety risks have to be analysed in order to be successfully avoided and one way of doing this is to use different kinds of risk analysis methods. There is an abundance of existing methods to choose from and new methods are constantly being developed. This report describes some of the risk analysis methods currently available for analysing safety and examines the relationships between them. The focus here is mainly on human safety aspects

  7. Hedging local volume risk using forward markets: Nordic case

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ernstsen, Rune Ramsdal; Boomsma, Trine Krogh; Tegner, Martin

    2017-01-01

    With focus on the Nordic electricity market, this paper develops hedging strategies for an electricity distributor who manages price and volume risk from fixed price agreements on stochastic electricity load. Whereas the distributor trades in the spot market at area prices, the financial contracts......, and we suggest various strategies for hedging in the presence of local volume risk. We benchmark against a strategy that ignores correlation and hedges at expected load, as is common practice in the industry. Using data from 2013 and 2014 for two Danish bidding areas, we show that our best hedging...... strategy reduces gross loss by 5.8% and 13.6% and increases gross profit by 3.8% and 9.5%, respectively. Although this is partly due to the inclusion of correlation, we show that performance improvement is mainly driven by the choice of risk measure....

  8. Risk analysis; Analisis de riesgos

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baron, J H; Nunez McLeod, J; Rivera, S S [Universidad Nacional de Cuyo, Mendoza (Argentina). Instituto de Capacitacion Especial y Desarrollo de Ingenieria Asistida por Computadora (CEDIAC)

    1997-07-01

    This book contains a selection of research works performed in the CEDIAC Institute (Cuyo National University) in the area of Risk Analysis, with specific orientations to the subjects of uncertainty and sensitivity studies, software reliability, severe accident modeling, etc. This volume presents important material for all those researches who want to have an insight in the risk analysis field, as a tool to solution several problems frequently found in the engineering and applied sciences field, as well as for the academic teachers who want to keep up to date, including the new developments and improvements continuously arising in this field. [Spanish] Este libro contiene una seleccion de trabajos de investigacion realizados dentro del Instituto de Capacitacion Especial y Desarrollo de la Ingenieria Asistida por Computadora en el area del analisis de riesgos, con una orientacion hacia el estudio de incertidumbres y sensibilidad, confiabilidad de software, modelacion de accidentes severos, etc. Este volumen recoge un material de indudable importancia e interes para todos aquellos investigadores y profesionales que desean incursionar en este campo del analisis de riesgos como herramienta para la solucion de problemas frecuentemente encontrados en la ingenieria y las ciencias aplicadas, asi como para los academicos que desean mantenerse al dia, conociendo los nuevos desarrollos y tecnicas que constantemente aparecen en su area.

  9. A risk management approach to double-shell tank waste volume versus storage capacity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coles, G.A.; Thurkow, T.J.; Fritz, R.L.; Nuhlestein, L.O.; Allen, M.R.; Stuart, R.J.

    1996-01-01

    A risk-based assessment of the overall waste volume versus double-shell tank storage capacity was conducted to develop fallback positions for projections where the waste volume was at a high risk of exceeding capacity. This study was initiated to provide that assessment. A working simulation model was the primary deliverable of this study. The model validates the approach and demonstrates that simulation analysis can provide a method of tracking uncertainties in available data, assessing probabilities, and serves as a tool to be used by management to determine the consequences of various off-normal occurrences

  10. A risk management approach to double-shell tank waste volume versus storage capacity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coles, G.A. [Westinghouse Hanford Co., Richland, WA (United States); Thurkow, T.J.; Fritz, R.L.; Nuhlestein, L.O.; Allen, M.R.; Stuart, R.J. [ARES Corp. (United States)

    1996-01-01

    A risk-based assessment of the overall waste volume versus double-shell tank storage capacity was conducted to develop fallback positions for projections where the waste volume was at a high risk of exceeding capacity. This study was initiated to provide that assessment. A working simulation model was the primary deliverable of this study. The model validates the approach and demonstrates that simulation analysis can provide a method of tracking uncertainties in available data, assessing probabilities, and serves as a tool to be used by management to determine the consequences of various off-normal occurrences.

  11. Development and analysis of finite volume methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Omnes, P.

    2010-05-01

    This document is a synthesis of a set of works concerning the development and the analysis of finite volume methods used for the numerical approximation of partial differential equations (PDEs) stemming from physics. In the first part, the document deals with co-localized Godunov type schemes for the Maxwell and wave equations, with a study on the loss of precision of this scheme at low Mach number. In the second part, discrete differential operators are built on fairly general, in particular very distorted or nonconforming, bidimensional meshes. These operators are used to approach the solutions of PDEs modelling diffusion, electro and magneto-statics and electromagnetism by the discrete duality finite volume method (DDFV) on staggered meshes. The third part presents the numerical analysis and some a priori as well as a posteriori error estimations for the discretization of the Laplace equation by the DDFV scheme. The last part is devoted to the order of convergence in the L2 norm of the finite volume approximation of the solution of the Laplace equation in one dimension and on meshes with orthogonality properties in two dimensions. Necessary and sufficient conditions, relatively to the mesh geometry and to the regularity of the data, are provided that ensure the second-order convergence of the method. (author)

  12. Probabilistic risk analysis and terrorism risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ezell, Barry Charles; Bennett, Steven P; von Winterfeldt, Detlof; Sokolowski, John; Collins, Andrew J

    2010-04-01

    Since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and the subsequent establishment of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), considerable efforts have been made to estimate the risks of terrorism and the cost effectiveness of security policies to reduce these risks. DHS, industry, and the academic risk analysis communities have all invested heavily in the development of tools and approaches that can assist decisionmakers in effectively allocating limited resources across the vast array of potential investments that could mitigate risks from terrorism and other threats to the homeland. Decisionmakers demand models, analyses, and decision support that are useful for this task and based on the state of the art. Since terrorism risk analysis is new, no single method is likely to meet this challenge. In this article we explore a number of existing and potential approaches for terrorism risk analysis, focusing particularly on recent discussions regarding the applicability of probabilistic and decision analytic approaches to bioterrorism risks and the Bioterrorism Risk Assessment methodology used by the DHS and criticized by the National Academies and others.

  13. Probabilistic risk assessment course documentation. Volume 4. System reliability and analysis techniques sessions B/C - event trees/fault trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haasl, D.; Young, J.

    1985-08-01

    This course will employ a combination of lecture material and practical problem solving in order to develop competence and understanding of th principles and techniques of event tree and fault tree analysis. The role of these techniques in the overall context of PRA will be described. The emphasis of this course will be on the basic, traditional methods of event tree and fault tree analysis

  14. Risk adjustment for case mix and the effect of surgeon volume on morbidity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maas, Matthew B; Jaff, Michael R; Rordorf, Guy A

    2013-06-01

    Retrospective studies of large administrative databases have shown higher mortality for procedures performed by low-volume surgeons, but the adequacy of risk adjustment in those studies is in doubt. To determine whether the relationship between surgeon volume and outcomes is an artifact of case mix using a prospective sample of carotid endarterectomy cases. Observational cohort study from January 1, 2008, through December 31, 2010, with preoperative, immediate postoperative, and 30-day postoperative assessments acquired by independent monitors. Urban, tertiary academic medical center. All 841 patients who underwent carotid endarterectomy performed by a vascular surgeon or cerebrovascular neurosurgeon at the institution. Carotid endarterectomy without another concurrent surgery. Stroke, death, and other surgical complications occurring within 30 days of surgery along with other case data. A low-volume surgeon performed 40 or fewer cases per year. Variables used in a comparison administrative database study, as well as variables identified by our univariate analysis, were used for adjusted analyses to assess for an association between low-volume surgeons and the rate of stroke and death as well as other complications. RESULTS The rate of stroke and death was 6.9% for low-volume surgeons and 2.0% for high-volume surgeons (P = .001). Complications were similarly higher (13.4% vs 7.2%, P = .008). Low-volume surgeons performed more nonelective cases. Low-volume surgeons were significantly associated with stroke and death in the unadjusted analysis as well as after adjustment with variables used in the administrative database study (odds ratio, 3.61; 95% CI, 1.70-7.67, and odds ratio, 3.68; 95% CI, 1.72-7.89, respectively). However, adjusting for the significant disparity of American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status classification in case mix eliminated the effect of surgeon volume on the rate of stroke and death (odds ratio, 1.65; 95% CI, 0.59-4.64) and other

  15. High Center Volume Does Not Mitigate Risk Associated with Using High Donor Risk Organs in Liver Transplantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beal, Eliza W; Black, Sylvester M; Mumtaz, Khalid; Hayes, Don; El-Hinnawi, Ashraf; Washburn, Kenneth; Tumin, Dmitry

    2017-09-01

    High-risk donor allografts increase access to liver transplant, but potentially reduce patient and graft survival. It is unclear whether the risk associated with using marginal donor livers is mitigated by increasing center experience. The United Network for Organ Sharing registry was queried for adult first-time liver transplant recipients between 2/2002 and 12/2015. High donor risk was defined as donor risk index >1.9, and 1-year patient and graft survival were compared according to donor risk index in small and large centers. Multivariable Cox regression estimated the hazard ratio (HR) associated with using high-risk donor organs, according to a continuous measure of annual center volume. The analysis included 51,770 patients. In 67 small and 67 large centers, high donor risk index predicted increased mortality (p = 0.001). In multivariable analysis, high-donor risk index allografts predicted greater mortality hazard at centers performing 20 liver transplants per year (HR 1.35; 95% CI 1.22, 1.49; p donor risk index and center volume was not statistically significant (p = 0.747), confirming that the risk associated with using marginal donor livers was comparable between smaller and larger centers. Results were consistent when examining graft loss. At both small and large centers, high-risk donor allografts were associated with reduced patient and graft survival after liver transplant. Specific strategies to mitigate the risk of liver transplant involving high-risk donors are needed, in addition to accumulation of center expertise.

  16. Risk Analysis Approach to Rainwater Harvesting Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nadia Ursino

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Urban rainwater reuse preserves water resources and promotes sustainable development in rapidly growing urban areas. The efficiency of a large number of urban water reuse systems, operating under different climate and demand conditions, is evaluated here on the base of a new risk analysis approach. Results obtained by probability analysis (PA indicate that maximum efficiency in low demanding scenarios is above 0.5 and a threshold, distinguishing low from high demanding scenarios, indicates that in low demanding scenarios no significant improvement in performance may be attained by increasing the storage capacity of rainwater harvesting tanks. Threshold behaviour is displayed when tank storage capacity is designed to match both the average collected volume and the average reuse volume. The low demand limit cannot be achieved under climate and operating conditions characterized by a disproportion between harvesting and demand volume.

  17. Evaluation of severe accident risks: Methodology for the containment, source term, consequence, and risk integration analyses. Volume 1, Revision 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gorham, E.D.; Breeding, R.J.; Brown, T.D.; Harper, F.T.; Helton, J.C.; Murfin, W.B.; Hora, S.C.

    1993-12-01

    NUREG-1150 examines the risk to the public from five nuclear power plants. The NUREG-1150 plant studies are Level III probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) and, as such, they consist of four analysis components: accident frequency analysis, accident progression analysis, source term analysis, and consequence analysis. This volume summarizes the methods utilized in performing the last three components and the assembly of these analyses into an overall risk assessment. The NUREG-1150 analysis approach is based on the following ideas: (1) general and relatively fast-running models for the individual analysis components, (2) well-defined interfaces between the individual analysis components, (3) use of Monte Carlo techniques together with an efficient sampling procedure to propagate uncertainties, (4) use of expert panels to develop distributions for important phenomenological issues, and (5) automation of the overall analysis. Many features of the new analysis procedures were adopted to facilitate a comprehensive treatment of uncertainty in the complete risk analysis. Uncertainties in the accident frequency, accident progression and source term analyses were included in the overall uncertainty assessment. The uncertainties in the consequence analysis were not included in this assessment. A large effort was devoted to the development of procedures for obtaining expert opinion and the execution of these procedures to quantify parameters and phenomena for which there is large uncertainty and divergent opinions in the reactor safety community

  18. Shuttle user analysis (study 2.2): Volume 3. Business Risk And Value of Operations in space (BRAVO). Part 4: Computer programs and data look-up

    Science.gov (United States)

    1974-01-01

    Computer program listings as well as graphical and tabulated data needed by the analyst to perform a BRAVO analysis were examined. Graphical aid which can be used to determine the earth coverage of satellites in synchronous equatorial orbits was described. A listing for satellite synthesis computer program as well as a sample printout for the DSCS-11 satellite program and a listing of the symbols used in the program were included. The APL language listing for the payload program cost estimating computer program was given. This language is compatible with many of the time sharing remote terminals computers used in the United States. Data on the intelsat communications network was studied. Costs for telecommunications systems leasing, line of sight microwave relay communications systems, submarine telephone cables, and terrestrial power generation systems were also described.

  19. European market integration for gas? Volume flexibility and political risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Asche, Frank; Tveteras, Ragnar; Osmundsen, Petter

    2002-01-01

    Long-term take-or-pay contracts regulating gas exports to the Continent are described and analyzed. We thereafter examine whether the German gas market is integrated. Time series of Norwegian, Dutch and Russian gas export prices to Germany in 1990-1998 are examined. Cointegration tests show that that the different border prices for gas to Germany move proportionally over time, indicating an integrated gas market. We find differences in mean prices, with Russian gas being sold at prices systematically lower than Dutch and Norwegian gas. Among the explanatory factors for price discrepancies are differences in volume flexibility (swing) and perceived political risk

  20. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 1.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-06-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  1. MATHEMATICAL RISK ANALYSIS: VIA NICHOLAS RISK MODEL AND BAYESIAN ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anass BAYAGA

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this second part of a two-phased study was to explorethe predictive power of quantitative risk analysis (QRA method andprocess within Higher Education Institution (HEI. The method and process investigated the use impact analysis via Nicholas risk model and Bayesian analysis, with a sample of hundred (100 risk analysts in a historically black South African University in the greater Eastern Cape Province.The first findings supported and confirmed previous literature (KingIII report, 2009: Nicholas and Steyn, 2008: Stoney, 2007: COSA, 2004 that there was a direct relationship between risk factor, its likelihood and impact, certiris paribus. The second finding in relation to either controlling the likelihood or the impact of occurrence of risk (Nicholas risk model was that to have a brighter risk reward, it was important to control the likelihood ofoccurrence of risks as compared with its impact so to have a direct effect on entire University. On the Bayesian analysis, thus third finding, the impact of risk should be predicted along three aspects. These aspects included the human impact (decisions made, the property impact (students and infrastructural based and the business impact. Lastly, the study revealed that although in most business cases, where as business cycles considerably vary dependingon the industry and or the institution, this study revealed that, most impacts in HEI (University was within the period of one academic.The recommendation was that application of quantitative risk analysisshould be related to current legislative framework that affects HEI.

  2. Country risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    David, A.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reports that the oil industry has been an internationally based industry that has been heavily dependent on outside financing sources. Historically, financing came from investment houses that, in most cases, participated in the projects as equity investors. However, investment companies can no longer satisfy the capital requirements of the current high level of exploration and development activities. The current trend is to involve commercial banks on a purely lending basis. Commercial banks, by their nature, are risk averse. In the case of oil and gas exploration and production they are asked to take not only technical risk and price risk but geopolitical risk as well. Methods have been developed by commercial banks to reduce technical and price risks to point which enables them to be comfortable with a loan. However, geopolitical risks are more difficult to assess. The risk associated with many countries are the nationalization of the investment, new tax restrictions, restriction of currency movements, and/or revisions to the production sharing agreements

  3. Sudbury soils study : summary of volume 3 : ecological risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2009-03-15

    The Sudbury soils study was comprised of 3 volumes: (1) a background, study organization and 2001 soils survey; (2) a human health risk assessment; and (3) an ecological risk assessment (ERA). This document provided details of the ERA, which was conducted to characterize the current and future risks of chemicals of concern (COC) to terrestrial and ecosystem components from Sudbury smelter particulate emissions. The extent to which COC are preventing the recovery of regionally representative terrestrial plant communities was investigated. Risks to terrestrial wildlife populations and endangered species and communities were evaluated. Samples of soil, water, sediment, plants, terrestrial invertebrates, and fish tissue were collected. Data were then analyzed by scientists and independent consultants in order to assess the impacts of arsenic, cadmium, cobalt, copper, lead, nickel and selenium. Results of the study indicated that terrestrial plant communities in the region continue to be impacted by COC in the soil, as well as by soil erosion, low nutrient levels, and a lack of soil organic matter. Direct impacts on wildlife populations were also observed. 5 refs., 7 tabs., 21 figs.

  4. Risk analysis of Odelouca cofferdam

    OpenAIRE

    Pimenta, L.; Caldeira, L.; Maranha das Neves, E.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we present the risk analysis of Odelouca Cofferdam, using an event tree analysis. The initializing events, failure modes and analysed limit states are discussed based on an influence diagram. The constructed event trees and their interpretation are presented. The obtained risk values are represented in an FN plot superimposed to the acceptability and tolerability risk limits proposed for Portuguese dams. Initially, particular emphasis is placed on the main characteristic...

  5. Trends in comorbidity, acuity, and maternal risk associated with preeclampsia across obstetric volume settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Booker, Whitney A; Ananth, Cande V; Wright, Jason D; Siddiq, Zainab; D'Alton, Mary E; Cleary, Kirstin L; Goffman, Dena; Friedman, Alexander M

    2018-03-12

    The objective of this study was to characterize morbidity, acuity, and maternal risks associated with preeclampsia across hospitals with varying obstetric volumes. This retrospective cohort analysis used a large administrative data source, the Perspective database, to characterize the risk for preeclampsia from 2006 to 2015. Hospitals were classified as having either low (≤1000), moderate (1001-2000), or high (≥2000) delivery volume. The primary outcomes included preeclampsia, antihypertensive administration, comorbidity, and related severe maternal morbidity. Severe maternal morbidity was estimated using criteria from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Comorbidity was estimated using an obstetric comorbidity index. Univariable comparisons were made with Chi-squared test. Adjusted log linear regression models were fit to assess factors associated with severe morbidity with risk ratios with 95% confidence intervals as the measures of effect. Population weights were applied to create national estimates. Of 36,985,729 deliveries included, 1,414,484 (3.8%) had a diagnosis of preeclampsia. Of these, 779,511 (2.1%) had mild, 171,109 (0.5%) superimposed, and 463,864 (1.3%) severe preeclampsia. The prevalence of mild, superimposed, and severe preeclampsia each increased over the study period with severe and superimposed preeclampsia as opposed to mild preeclampsia increasing the most proportionately (53.2 and 102.5 versus 10.8%, respectively). The use of antihypertensives used to treat severe range hypertension increased with use of intravenous labetalol increasing 31.5%, 43.2%, and 36.1% at low-, medium-, and high-volume hospitals. Comorbid risk also increased across hospital volume settings as did risk for severe maternal morbidity. Preeclampsia is increasing across obstetric care settings with preeclamptic patients demonstrating increasing comorbid risk, increased risk for severe morbidity, and more frequent need for treatment of acute hypertension.

  6. Stereological analysis of nuclear volume in recurrent meningiomas

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, C; Schrøder, H D

    1994-01-01

    A stereological estimation of nuclear volume in recurrent and non-recurrent meningiomas was made. The aim was to investigate whether this method could discriminate between these two groups. We found that the mean nuclear volumes in recurrent meningiomas were all larger at debut than in any...... of the control tumors. The mean nuclear volume of the individual recurrent tumors appeared to change with time, showing a tendency to diminish. A relationship between large nuclear volume at presentation and number of or time interval between recurrences was not found. We conclude that measurement of mean...... nuclear volume in meningiomas might help identify a group at risk of recurrence....

  7. Secondary Breast Cancer Risk by Radiation Volume in Women With Hodgkin Lymphoma

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Conway, Jessica L. [Centre for Lymphoid Cancer, British Columbia Cancer Agency, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada); Department of Surgery, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada); Connors, Joseph M. [Centre for Lymphoid Cancer, British Columbia Cancer Agency, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada); Tyldesley, Scott [Centre for Lymphoid Cancer, British Columbia Cancer Agency, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada); Department of Surgery, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada); Savage, Kerry J. [Centre for Lymphoid Cancer, British Columbia Cancer Agency, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada); Campbell, Belinda A. [Division of Radiation Oncology and Cancer Imaging, Peter MacCallum Cancer Centre, Melbourne, Victoria (Australia); Zheng, Yvonne Y.; Hamm, Jeremy [Department of Cancer Surveillance and Outcomes, British Columbia Cancer Agency, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada); Pickles, Tom, E-mail: TPickles@bccancer.bc.ca [Centre for Lymphoid Cancer, British Columbia Cancer Agency, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada); Department of Surgery, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada)

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: To determine whether the risk of secondary breast cancer (SBC) is reduced in women with Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) treated with smaller field radiation therapy (SFRT) versus mantle field radiation therapy (MRT). Methods and Materials: We used the BC Cancer Agency (BCCA) Lymphoid Cancer Database to identify female patients treated for HL between January 1961 and December 2009. Radiation therapy volumes were categorized as MRT or SFRT, which included involved field, involved site, or involved nodal radiation therapy. SBC risk estimates were compared using competing risk analysis and Fine and Gray multivariable model: MRT ± chemotherapy, SFRT ± chemotherapy, or chemotherapy-only. Results: Of 734 eligible patients, 75% of the living patients have been followed up for more than 10 years, SBC has developed in 54, and 15 have died of breast cancer. The 20-year estimated risks (competing risk cumulative incidence) for SBC differed significantly: MRT 7.5% (95% confidence interval [CI] 4.4%-11.5%), SFRT 3.1% (95% CI 1.0%-7.7%), and chemotherapy-only 2.2% (95% CI 1.0%-4.8%) (P=.01). Using a Fine and Gray model to control for death and patients lost to follow-up, MRT was associated with a higher risk of SBC (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.9; 95% CI 1.4%-6.0%; P=.004) compared with chemotherapy-only and with SFRT (HR = 3.3; 95% CI 1.3%-8.4%; P=.01). SFRT was not associated with a greater risk of SBC compared with chemotherapy-only (HR = 0.87; 95% CI 0.28%-2.66%; P=.80). Conclusion: This study confirms that large-volume MRT is associated with a markedly increased risk of SBC; however, more modern small-volume RT is not associated with a greater risk of SBC than chemotherapy alone.

  8. Campylobacter Risk Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nauta, Maarten

    In several countries quantitative microbiological risk assessments (QMRAs) have been performed for Campylobacter in chicken meat. The models constructed for this purpose provide a good example of the development of QMRA in general and illustrate the diversity of available methods. Despite...... the differences between the models, the most prominent conclusions of the QMRAs are similar. These conclusions for example relate to the large risk of highly contaminated meat products and the insignificance of contamination from Campylobacter positive flocks to negative flocks during slaughter and processing...

  9. Risk analysis: opening the process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, Ph.; Mays, C.

    1998-01-01

    This conference on risk analysis took place in Paris, 11-14 october 1999. Over 200 paper where presented in the seven following sessions: perception; environment and health; persuasive risks; objects and products; personal and collective involvement; assessment and valuation; management. A rational approach to risk analysis has been developed in the three last decades. Techniques for risk assessment have been thoroughly enhanced, risk management approaches have been developed, decision making processes have been clarified, the social dimensions of risk perception and management have been investigated. Nevertheless this construction is being challenged by recent events which reveal how deficits in stakeholder involvement, openness and democratic procedures can undermine risk management actions. Indeed, the global process most components of risk analysis may be radically called into question. Food safety has lately been a prominent issue, but now debates appear, or old debates are revisited in the domains of public health, consumer products safety, waste management, environmental risks, nuclear installations, automobile safety and pollution. To meet the growing pressures for efficiency, openness, accountability, and multi-partner communication in risk analysis, institutional changes are underway in many European countries. However, the need for stakeholders to develop better insight into the process may lead to an evolution of all the components of risks analysis, even in its most (technical' steps. For stakeholders of different professional background, political projects, and responsibilities, risk identification procedures must be rendered understandable, quantitative risk assessment must be intelligible and accommodated in action proposals, ranging from countermeasures to educational programs to insurance mechanisms. Management formats must be open to local and political input and other types of operational feedback. (authors)

  10. Control volume based hydrocephalus research; analysis of human data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Benjamin; Wei, Timothy; Voorhees, Abram; Madsen, Joseph; Anor, Tomer

    2010-11-01

    Hydrocephalus is a neuropathophysiological disorder primarily diagnosed by increased cerebrospinal fluid volume and pressure within the brain. To date, utilization of clinical measurements have been limited to understanding of the relative amplitude and timing of flow, volume and pressure waveforms; qualitative approaches without a clear framework for meaningful quantitative comparison. Pressure volume models and electric circuit analogs enforce volume conservation principles in terms of pressure. Control volume analysis, through the integral mass and momentum conservation equations, ensures that pressure and volume are accounted for using first principles fluid physics. This approach is able to directly incorporate the diverse measurements obtained by clinicians into a simple, direct and robust mechanics based framework. Clinical data obtained for analysis are discussed along with data processing techniques used to extract terms in the conservation equation. Control volume analysis provides a non-invasive, physics-based approach to extracting pressure information from magnetic resonance velocity data that cannot be measured directly by pressure instrumentation.

  11. Rectal cancer surgery: volume-outcome analysis.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Nugent, Emmeline

    2010-12-01

    There is strong evidence supporting the importance of the volume-outcome relationship with respect to lung and pancreatic cancers. This relationship for rectal cancer surgery however remains unclear. We review the currently available literature to assess the evidence base for volume outcome in relation to rectal cancer surgery.

  12. A prospective three-dimensional analysis about the impact of differences in the clinical target volume in prostate cancer irradiation on normal-tissue exposure. A potential for increasing the benefit/risk ratio

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hille, A.; Toews, N.; Schmidberger, H.; Hess, C.F.

    2005-01-01

    Background and purpose: rectal toxicity following external-beam irradiation of prostate cancer correlates with the exposed percentage of rectal volume. Recently, it has been recommended to reduce the volume of the seminal vesicles that should be included in the clinical target volume (CTV). The purpose of this study was to quantitatively assess the impact of this CTV reduction on the expected rectal and bladder dose sparing. Patients and methods: 14 patients with localized prostate cancer undergoing external-beam radiotherapy were investigated. The prostate, the prostate + entire seminal vesicles, or the prostate + proximal seminal vesicles were delineated as CTV. Treatment plans were generated and compared concerning rectum and bladder dose-volume histograms (DVHs). Results: the exposure of rectum and bladder volume was significantly lower in case of irradiation of the prostate only compared to inclusion of the proximal or entire seminal vesicles into the CTV. The reduction of the CTV from prostate + entire seminal vesicles to prostate + proximal seminal vesicles led to a significant reduction of the rectal and bladder dose exposure. Conclusion: reduction of the CTV to the prostate only, or to the prostate + proximal seminal vesicles led to significant rectal and bladder dose sparing compared to irradiation of the prostate + entire seminal vesicles. In patients with a higher risk for seminal vesicles involvement, irradiation of the prostate + proximal seminal vesicles should be preferred. In case of a need for irradiation of the entire seminal vesicles, patients should be informed about a higher risk for chronic rectal toxicity and, possibly, for bladder complications. (orig.)

  13. Intraoperative ventilation: incidence and risk factors for receiving large tidal volumes during general anesthesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernandez-Bustamante Ana

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background There is a growing concern of the potential injurious role of ventilatory over-distention in patients without lung injury. No formal guidelines exist for intraoperative ventilation settings, but the use of tidal volumes (VT under 10 mL/kg predicted body weight (PBW has been recommended in healthy patients. We explored the incidence and risk factors for receiving large tidal volumes (VT > 10 mL/kg PBW. Methods We performed a cross-sectional analysis of our prospectively collected perioperative electronic database for current intraoperative ventilation practices and risk factors for receiving large tidal volumes (VT > 10 mL/kg PBW. We included all adults undergoing prolonged (≥ 4 h elective abdominal surgery and collected demographic, preoperative (comorbidities, intraoperative (i.e. ventilatory settings, fluid administration and postoperative (outcomes information. We compared patients receiving exhaled tidal volumes > 10 mL/kg PBW with those that received 8-10 or Results Ventilatory settings were non-uniform in the 429 adults included in the analysis. 17.5% of all patients received VT > 10 mL/kg PBW. 34.0% of all obese patients (body mass index, BMI, ≥ 30, 51% of all patients with a height T > 10 mL/kg PBW. Conclusions Ventilation with VT > 10 mL/kg PBW is still common, although poor correlation with PBW suggests it may be unintentional. BMI ≥ 30, female gender and height

  14. Advances in probabilistic risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hardung von Hardung, H.

    1982-01-01

    Probabilistic risk analysis can now look back upon almost a quarter century of intensive development. The early studies, whose methods and results are still referred to occasionally, however, only permitted rough estimates to be made of the probabilities of recognizable accident scenarios, failing to provide a method which could have served as a reference base in calculating the overall risk associated with nuclear power plants. The first truly solid attempt was the Rasmussen Study and, partly based on it, the German Risk Study. In those studies, probabilistic risk analysis has been given a much more precise basis. However, new methodologies have been developed in the meantime, which allow much more informative risk studies to be carried out. They have been found to be valuable tools for management decisions with respect to backfitting, reinforcement and risk limitation. Today they are mainly applied by specialized private consultants and have already found widespread application especially in the USA. (orig.) [de

  15. Introduction of the risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Campon, G.; Martinez, I.

    2013-01-01

    An introduction of risks analysis was given in the exposition which main issues were: food innocuousness, world, regional and national food context,change of paradigms, health definition, risk, codex, standardization, food chain role, trade agreement, codex alimentarius, food transmission diseases cost impact

  16. Hydroproject risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murdock, R.V.; Gulliver, J.S.

    1991-01-01

    Traditionally, economic feasibility studies performed for potential hydropower plant sites have included either no uncertainty or at best an ad hoc value associated with estimated benefits. However, formal methods for analyzing uncertainty do exist and have been outlined in the past. An application of these methods is demonstrated through conversion of a hydropower survey program, HYFEAS, to run on LOTUS 1-2-3, using the add-in software package RISK. In this paper the program principals are outlined and a case study of it's application to a hydropower site is presented

  17. SLSF loop handling system. Volume I. Structural analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahmed, H.; Cowie, A.; Ma, D.

    1978-10-01

    SLSF loop handling system was analyzed for deadweight and postulated dynamic loading conditions, identified in Chapters II and III in Volume I of this report, using a linear elastic static equivalent method of stress analysis. Stress analysis of the loop handling machine is presented in Volume I of this report. Chapter VII in Volume I of this report is a contribution by EG and G Co., who performed the work under ANL supervision

  18. STOCHASTIC METHODS IN RISK ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimíra OSADSKÁ

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we review basic stochastic methods which can be used to extend state-of-the-art deterministic analytical methods for risk analysis. We can conclude that the standard deterministic analytical methods highly depend on the practical experience and knowledge of the evaluator and therefore, the stochastic methods should be introduced. The new risk analysis methods should consider the uncertainties in input values. We present how large is the impact on the results of the analysis solving practical example of FMECA with uncertainties modelled using Monte Carlo sampling.

  19. Analysis of some nuclear waste management options. Volume II. Appendices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berman, L.E.; Ensminger, D.A.; Giuffre, M.S.; Koplik, C.M.; Oston, S.G.; Pollak, G.D.; Ross, B.I.

    1978-01-01

    This report describes risk analyses performed on that portion of a nuclear fuel cycle which begins following solidification of high-level waste. Risks associated with handling, interim storage and transportation of the waste are assessed, as well as the long term implications of disposal in deep mined cavities. The risk is expressed in terms of expected dose to the general population and peak dose to individuals in the population. This volume consists of appendices which provide technical details of the work performed

  20. Analysis of some nuclear waste management options. Volume II. Appendices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berman, L.E.; Ensminger, D.A.; Giuffre, M.S.; Koplik, C.M.; Oston, S.G.; Pollak, G.D.; Ross, B.I.

    1978-10-10

    This report describes risk analyses performed on that portion of a nuclear fuel cycle which begins following solidification of high-level waste. Risks associated with handling, interim storage and transportation of the waste are assessed, as well as the long term implications of disposal in deep mined cavities. The risk is expressed in terms of expected dose to the general population and peak dose to individuals in the population. This volume consists of appendices which provide technical details of the work performed.

  1. Risk-based decision analysis for groundwater operable units

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiaramonte, G.R.

    1995-01-01

    This document proposes a streamlined approach and methodology for performing risk assessment in support of interim remedial measure (IRM) decisions involving the remediation of contaminated groundwater on the Hanford Site. This methodology, referred to as ''risk-based decision analysis,'' also supports the specification of target cleanup volumes and provides a basis for design and operation of the groundwater remedies. The risk-based decision analysis can be completed within a short time frame and concisely documented. The risk-based decision analysis is more versatile than the qualitative risk assessment (QRA), because it not only supports the need for IRMs, but also provides criteria for defining the success of the IRMs and provides the risk-basis for decisions on final remedies. For these reasons, it is proposed that, for groundwater operable units, the risk-based decision analysis should replace the more elaborate, costly, and time-consuming QRA

  2. Substance use and regional gray matter volume in individuals at high risk of psychosis

    OpenAIRE

    Stone, James; Bhattacharyya, Sagnik; Barker, Gareth J; McGuire, Philip K; Bhattacharyya, Sagnik

    2012-01-01

    Individuals with an at risk mental state (ARMS) are at greatly increased risk of developing a psychotic illness. Risk of transition to psychosis is associated with regionally reduced cortical gray matter volume. There has been considerable interest in the interaction between psychosis risk and substance use. In this study we investigate the relationship between alcohol, cannabis and nicotine use with gray matter volume in ARMS subjects and healthy volunteers. Twenty seven ARMS subjects and 27...

  3. Economic Analysis. Volume V. Course Segments 65-79.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sterling Inst., Washington, DC. Educational Technology Center.

    The fifth volume of the multimedia, individualized course in economic analysis produced for the United States Naval Academy covers segments 65-79 of the course. Included in the volume are discussions of monopoly markets, monopolistic competition, oligopoly markets, and the theory of factor demand and supply. Other segments of the course, the…

  4. Risk assessment of CST-7 proposed waste treatment and storage facilities Volume I: Limited-scope probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of proposed CST-7 waste treatment ampersand storage facilities. Volume II: Preliminary hazards analysis of proposed CST-7 waste storage ampersand treatment facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sasser, K.

    1994-06-01

    In FY 1993, the Los Alamos National Laboratory Waste Management Group [CST-7 (formerly EM-7)] requested the Probabilistic Risk and Hazards Analysis Group [TSA-11 (formerly N-6)] to conduct a study of the hazards associated with several CST-7 facilities. Among these facilities are the Hazardous Waste Treatment Facility (HWTF), the HWTF Drum Storage Building (DSB), and the Mixed Waste Receiving and Storage Facility (MWRSF), which are proposed for construction beginning in 1996. These facilities are needed to upgrade the Laboratory's storage capability for hazardous and mixed wastes and to provide treatment capabilities for wastes in cases where offsite treatment is not available or desirable. These facilities will assist Los Alamos in complying with federal and state requlations

  5. Risk assessment of CST-7 proposed waste treatment and storage facilities Volume I: Limited-scope probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of proposed CST-7 waste treatment & storage facilities. Volume II: Preliminary hazards analysis of proposed CST-7 waste storage & treatment facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sasser, K.

    1994-06-01

    In FY 1993, the Los Alamos National Laboratory Waste Management Group [CST-7 (formerly EM-7)] requested the Probabilistic Risk and Hazards Analysis Group [TSA-11 (formerly N-6)] to conduct a study of the hazards associated with several CST-7 facilities. Among these facilities are the Hazardous Waste Treatment Facility (HWTF), the HWTF Drum Storage Building (DSB), and the Mixed Waste Receiving and Storage Facility (MWRSF), which are proposed for construction beginning in 1996. These facilities are needed to upgrade the Laboratory`s storage capability for hazardous and mixed wastes and to provide treatment capabilities for wastes in cases where offsite treatment is not available or desirable. These facilities will assist Los Alamos in complying with federal and state requlations.

  6. ProRisk : risk analysis instrument : developed for William properties

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Doorn, W.H.W.; Egeberg, Ingrid; Hendrickx, Kristoff; Kahramaner, Y.; Masseur, B.; Waijers, Koen; Weglicka, K.A.

    2005-01-01

    This report presents a Risk Analysis Instrument developed for William Properties. Based on the analysis, it appears that the practice of Risk Analysis exists within the organization, yet rather implicit. The Risk Analysis Instrument comes with a package of four components: an activity diagram, a

  7. Usage of Geoprocessing Services in Precision Forestry for Wood Volume Calculation and Wind Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomáš Mikita

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper outlines the idea of a precision forestry tool for optimizing clearcut size and shape within the process of forest recovery and its publishing in the form of a web processing service for forest owners on the Internet. The designed tool titled COWRAS (Clearcut Optimization and Wind Risk Assessment is developed for optimization of clearcuts (their location, shape, size, and orientation with subsequent wind risk assessment. The tool primarily works with airborne LiDAR data previously processed to the form of a digital surface model (DSM and a digital elevation model (DEM. In the first step, the growing stock on the planned clearcut determined by its location and area in feature class is calculated (by the method of individual tree detection. Subsequently tree heights from canopy height model (CHM are extracted and then diameters at breast height (DBH and wood volume using the regressions are calculated. Information about wood volume of each tree in the clearcut is exported and summarized in a table. In the next step, all trees in the clearcut are removed and a new DSM without trees in the clearcut is generated. This canopy model subsequently serves as an input for evaluation of wind risk damage by the MAXTOPEX tool (Mikita et al., 2012. In the final raster, predisposition of uncovered forest stand edges (around the clearcut to wind risk is calculated based on this analysis. The entire tool works in the background of ArcGIS server as a spatial decision support system for foresters.

  8. Conformal irradiation of the prostate: estimating long-term rectal bleeding risk using dose-volume histograms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hartford, Alan C.; Niemierko, Andrzej; Adams, Judith A.; Urie, Marcia M.; Shipley, William U.

    1996-01-01

    Purpose: Dose-volume histograms (DVHs) may be very useful tools for estimating probability of normal tissue complications (NTCP), but there is not yet an agreed upon method for their analysis. This study introduces a statistical method of aggregating and analyzing primary data from DVHs and associated outcomes. It explores the dose-volume relationship for NTCP of the rectum, using long-term data on rectal wall bleeding following prostatic irradiation. Methods and Materials: Previously published data were reviewed and updated on 41 patients with Stages T3 and T4 prostatic carcinoma treated with photons followed by perineal proton boost, including dose-volume histograms (DVHs) of each patient's anterior rectal wall and data on the occurrence of postirradiation rectal bleeding (minimum FU > 4 years). Logistic regression was used to test whether some individual combination of dose and volume irradiated might best separate the DVHs into categories of high or low risk for rectal bleeding. Further analysis explored whether a group of such dose-volume combinations might be superior in predicting complication risk. These results were compared with results of the 'critical volume model', a mathematical model based on assumptions of underlying radiobiological interactions. Results: Ten of the 128 tested dose-volume combinations proved to be 'statistically significant combinations' (SSCs) distinguishing between bleeders (14 out of 41) and nonbleeders (27 out of 41), ranging contiguously between 60 CGE (Cobalt Gray Equivalent) to 70% of the anterior rectal wall and 75 CGE to 30%. Calculated odds ratios for each SSC were not significantly different across the individual SSCs; however, analysis combining SSCs allowed segregation of DVHs into three risk groups: low, moderate, and high. Estimates of probabilities of normal tissue complications (NTCPs) based on these risk groups correlated strongly with observed data (p = 0.003) and with biomathematical model-generated NTCPs

  9. A bayesian nework based risk model for volume loss in soft soils in mechanized bored tunnels

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chivatá Cárdenas, Ibsen; Al-Jibouri, Saad H.S.; Halman, Johannes I.M.

    2012-01-01

    Volume loss is one of the most important risks when boring a tunnel. This is particularly true when a tunnel is being constructed in soft soils. The risk of excessive volume loss, if materialised can lead to large consequences such as damage in buildings on the surface. This paper describes the

  10. Weekly running volume and risk of running-related injuries among marathon runners

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Christina Haugaard; Nielsen, R.O.; Juul, Martin Serup

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate if the risk of injury declines with increasing weekly running volume before a marathon race.......The purpose of this study was to investigate if the risk of injury declines with increasing weekly running volume before a marathon race....

  11. Weekly running volume and risk of running-related injuries among marathon runners

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Christina Haugaard; Nielsen, Rasmus Østergaard; Juul, Martin Serup

    2013-01-01

    PURPOSEBACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to investigate if the risk of injury declines with increasing weekly running volume before a marathon race.......PURPOSEBACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to investigate if the risk of injury declines with increasing weekly running volume before a marathon race....

  12. Common approach of risks analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noviello, L.; Naviglio, A.

    1996-01-01

    Although, following the resolutions of the High German Court, the protection level of the human beings is an objective which can change in time, it is obvious that it is an important point when there is a risk for the population. This is true more particularly for the industrial plants whose possible accidents could affect the population. The accidents risk analysis indicates that there is no conceptual difference between the risks of a nuclear power plant and those of the other industrial plants as chemical plants, the gas distribution system and the hydraulic dams. A legislation analysis induced by the Seveso Directive for the industrial risks give some important indications which should always be followed. This work analyses more particularly the legislative situation in different European countries and identifies some of the most important characteristics. Indeed, for most of the countries, the situation is different and it is a later difficulties source for nuclear power plants. In order to strengthen this reasoning, this paper presents some preliminary results of an analysis of a nuclear power plant following the approach of other industrial plants. In conclusion, it will be necessary to analyse again the risks assessment approach for nuclear power plants because the real protection level of human beings in a country is determined by the less regulated of the dangerous industrial plants existing at the surroundings. (O.M.)

  13. Retroperitoneal Sarcoma Target Volume and Organ at Risk Contour Delineation Agreement Among NRG Sarcoma Radiation Oncologists

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baldini, Elizabeth H., E-mail: ebaldini@partners.org [Department of Radiation Oncology, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Brigham and Women' s Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Abrams, Ross A. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Rush University Medical Center, Chicago, Illinois (United States); Bosch, Walter [Department of Radiation Oncology, Washington University, St. Louis, Missouri (United States); Roberge, David [Department of Radiation Oncology, Centre Hospitalier de l' Universite de Montreal, Montreal, Quebec (Canada); Haas, Rick L.M. [Department of Radiotherapy, Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Catton, Charles N. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Princess Margaret Cancer Centre, Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Indelicato, Daniel J. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Florida Medical Center, Jacksonville, Florida (United States); Olsen, Jeffrey R. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Washington University, St. Louis, Missouri (United States); Deville, Curtiland [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Chen, Yen-Lin [Department of Radiation Oncology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Finkelstein, Steven E. [Translational Research Consortium, 21st Century Oncology, Scottsdale, Arizona (United States); DeLaney, Thomas F. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Wang, Dian [Department of Radiation Oncology, Rush University Medical Center, Chicago, Illinois (United States)

    2015-08-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the variability in target volume and organ at risk (OAR) contour delineation for retroperitoneal sarcoma (RPS) among 12 sarcoma radiation oncologists. Methods and Materials: Radiation planning computed tomography (CT) scans for 2 cases of RPS were distributed among 12 sarcoma radiation oncologists with instructions for contouring gross tumor volume (GTV), clinical target volume (CTV), high-risk CTV (HR CTV: area judged to be at high risk of resulting in positive margins after resection), and OARs: bowel bag, small bowel, colon, stomach, and duodenum. Analysis of contour agreement was performed using the simultaneous truth and performance level estimation (STAPLE) algorithm and kappa statistics. Results: Ten radiation oncologists contoured both RPS cases, 1 contoured only RPS1, and 1 contoured only RPS2 such that each case was contoured by 11 radiation oncologists. The first case (RPS 1) was a patient with a de-differentiated (DD) liposarcoma (LPS) with a predominant well-differentiated (WD) component, and the second case (RPS 2) was a patient with DD LPS made up almost entirely of a DD component. Contouring agreement for GTV and CTV contours was high. However, the agreement for HR CTVs was only moderate. For OARs, agreement for stomach, bowel bag, small bowel, and colon was high, but agreement for duodenum (distorted by tumor in one of these cases) was fair to moderate. Conclusions: For preoperative treatment of RPS, sarcoma radiation oncologists contoured GTV, CTV, and most OARs with a high level of agreement. HR CTV contours were more variable. Further clarification of this volume with the help of sarcoma surgical oncologists is necessary to reach consensus. More attention to delineation of the duodenum is also needed.

  14. Retroperitoneal Sarcoma Target Volume and Organ at Risk Contour Delineation Agreement Among NRG Sarcoma Radiation Oncologists

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baldini, Elizabeth H.; Abrams, Ross A.; Bosch, Walter; Roberge, David; Haas, Rick L.M.; Catton, Charles N.; Indelicato, Daniel J.; Olsen, Jeffrey R.; Deville, Curtiland; Chen, Yen-Lin; Finkelstein, Steven E.; DeLaney, Thomas F.; Wang, Dian

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the variability in target volume and organ at risk (OAR) contour delineation for retroperitoneal sarcoma (RPS) among 12 sarcoma radiation oncologists. Methods and Materials: Radiation planning computed tomography (CT) scans for 2 cases of RPS were distributed among 12 sarcoma radiation oncologists with instructions for contouring gross tumor volume (GTV), clinical target volume (CTV), high-risk CTV (HR CTV: area judged to be at high risk of resulting in positive margins after resection), and OARs: bowel bag, small bowel, colon, stomach, and duodenum. Analysis of contour agreement was performed using the simultaneous truth and performance level estimation (STAPLE) algorithm and kappa statistics. Results: Ten radiation oncologists contoured both RPS cases, 1 contoured only RPS1, and 1 contoured only RPS2 such that each case was contoured by 11 radiation oncologists. The first case (RPS 1) was a patient with a de-differentiated (DD) liposarcoma (LPS) with a predominant well-differentiated (WD) component, and the second case (RPS 2) was a patient with DD LPS made up almost entirely of a DD component. Contouring agreement for GTV and CTV contours was high. However, the agreement for HR CTVs was only moderate. For OARs, agreement for stomach, bowel bag, small bowel, and colon was high, but agreement for duodenum (distorted by tumor in one of these cases) was fair to moderate. Conclusions: For preoperative treatment of RPS, sarcoma radiation oncologists contoured GTV, CTV, and most OARs with a high level of agreement. HR CTV contours were more variable. Further clarification of this volume with the help of sarcoma surgical oncologists is necessary to reach consensus. More attention to delineation of the duodenum is also needed

  15. Risk analysis as a decision tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yadigaroglu, G.; Chakraborty, S.

    1985-01-01

    From 1983 - 1985 a lecture series entitled ''Risk-benefit analysis'' was held at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH), Zurich, in cooperation with the Central Department for the Safety of Nuclear Installations of the Swiss Federal Agency of Energy Economy. In that setting the value of risk-oriented evaluation models as a decision tool in safety questions was discussed on a broad basis. Experts of international reputation from the Federal Republic of Germany, France, Canada, the United States and Switzerland have contributed to report in this joint volume on the uses of such models. Following an introductory synopsis on risk analysis and risk assessment the book deals with practical examples in the fields of medicine, nuclear power, chemistry, transport and civil engineering. Particular attention is paid to the dialogue between analysts and decision makers taking into account the economic-technical aspects and social values. The recent chemical disaster in the Indian city of Bhopal again signals the necessity of such analyses. All the lectures were recorded individually. (orig./HP) [de

  16. Hippocampus and amygdala volumes in children and young adults at high-risk of schizophrenia: research synthesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganzola, Rossana; Maziade, Michel; Duchesne, Simon

    2014-06-01

    Studies have reported hippocampal and amygdala volume abnormalities in schizophrenic patients. It is necessary to explore the potential for these structures as early disease markers in subjects at high risk (HR) of schizophrenia. We performed a review of 29 magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) studies measuring hippocampal and amygdala volumes in subjects at HR for schizophrenia. We reclassified subjects in 3 new HR categories: presence of only risk symptoms (psychotic moderate symptoms), presence of only risk factors (genetic, developmental or environmental), and presence of combined risk symptoms/factors. Hippocampal volume reductions were detected in subjects with first episode (FE) of psychosis, in all young adults and in adolescents at HR of schizophrenia. The loss of tissue was mainly located in the posterior part of hippocampus and the right side seems more vulnerable in young adults with only risk symptoms. Instead, the anterior sector seems more involved in HR subjects with genetic risks. Abnormal amygdala volumes were found in FE subjects, in children with combined risk symptoms/factors and in older subjects using different inclusion criteria, but not in young adults. Hippocampal and amygdala abnormalities may be present before schizophrenia onset. Further studies should be conducted to clarify whether these abnormalities are causally or effectually related to neurodevelopment. Shape analysis could clarify the impact of environmental, genetic, and developmental factors on the medial temporal structures during the evolution of this disease. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Control-Volume Analysis Of Thrust-Augmenting Ejectors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drummond, Colin K.

    1990-01-01

    New method of analysis of transient flow in thrust-augmenting ejector based on control-volume formulation of governing equations. Considered as potential elements of propulsion subsystems of short-takeoff/vertical-landing airplanes.

  18. Risk Characterization uncertainties associated description, sensitivity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carrillo, M.; Tovar, M.; Alvarez, J.; Arraez, M.; Hordziejewicz, I.; Loreto, I.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation is about risks to the estimated levels of exposure, uncertainty and variability in the analysis, sensitivity analysis, risks from exposure to multiple substances, formulation of guidelines for carcinogenic and genotoxic compounds and risk subpopulations

  19. Underground Test Area Subproject Phase I Data Analysis Task. Volume VII - Tritium Transport Model Documentation Package

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1996-12-01

    Volume VII of the documentation for the Phase I Data Analysis Task performed in support of the current Regional Flow Model, Transport Model, and Risk Assessment for the Nevada Test Site Underground Test Area Subproject contains the tritium transport model documentation. Because of the size and complexity of the model area, a considerable quantity of data was collected and analyzed in support of the modeling efforts. The data analysis task was consequently broken into eight subtasks, and descriptions of each subtask's activities are contained in one of the eight volumes that comprise the Phase I Data Analysis Documentation.

  20. Longitudinal analysis of mouse SDOCT volumes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antony, Bhavna J.; Carass, Aaron; Lang, Andrew; Kim, Byung-Jin; Zack, Donald J.; Prince, Jerry L.

    2017-03-01

    Spectral-domain optical coherence tomography (SDOCT), in addition to its routine clinical use in the diagnosis of ocular diseases, has begun to fund increasing use in animal studies. Animal models are frequently used to study disease mechanisms as well as to test drug efficacy. In particular, SDOCT provides the ability to study animals longitudinally and non-invasively over long periods of time. However, the lack of anatomical landmarks makes the longitudinal scan acquisition prone to inconsistencies in orientation. Here, we propose a method for the automated registration of mouse SDOCT volumes. The method begins by accurately segmenting the blood vessels and the optic nerve head region in the scans using a pixel classification approach. The segmented vessel maps from follow-up scans were registered using an iterative closest point (ICP) algorithm to the baseline scan to allow for the accurate longitudinal tracking of thickness changes. Eighteen SDOCT volumes from a light damage model study were used to train a random forest utilized in the pixel classification step. The area under the curve (AUC) in a leave-one-out study for the retinal blood vessels and the optic nerve head (ONH) was found to be 0.93 and 0.98, respectively. The complete proposed framework, the retinal vasculature segmentation and the ICP registration, was applied to a secondary set of scans obtained from a light damage model. A qualitative assessment of the registration showed no registration failures.

  1. Environmental modeling and health risk analysis (ACTS/RISK)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Aral, M. M

    2010-01-01

    ... presents a review of the topics of exposure and health risk analysis. The Analytical Contaminant Transport Analysis System (ACTS) and Health RISK Analysis (RISK) software tools are an integral part of the book and provide computational platforms for all the models discussed herein. The most recent versions of these two softwa...

  2. Credit Risk Evaluation : Modeling - Analysis - Management

    OpenAIRE

    Wehrspohn, Uwe

    2002-01-01

    An analysis and further development of the building blocks of modern credit risk management: -Definitions of default -Estimation of default probabilities -Exposures -Recovery Rates -Pricing -Concepts of portfolio dependence -Time horizons for risk calculations -Quantification of portfolio risk -Estimation of risk measures -Portfolio analysis and portfolio improvement -Evaluation and comparison of credit risk models -Analytic portfolio loss distributions The thesis contributes to the evaluatio...

  3. Information architecture. Volume 2, Part 1: Baseline analysis summary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-12-01

    The Department of Energy (DOE) Information Architecture, Volume 2, Baseline Analysis, is a collaborative and logical next-step effort in the processes required to produce a Departmentwide information architecture. The baseline analysis serves a diverse audience of program management and technical personnel and provides an organized way to examine the Department`s existing or de facto information architecture. A companion document to Volume 1, The Foundations, it furnishes the rationale for establishing a Departmentwide information architecture. This volume, consisting of the Baseline Analysis Summary (part 1), Baseline Analysis (part 2), and Reference Data (part 3), is of interest to readers who wish to understand how the Department`s current information architecture technologies are employed. The analysis identifies how and where current technologies support business areas, programs, sites, and corporate systems.

  4. Intensity-Modulated Radiotherapy for Craniospinal Irradiation: Target Volume Considerations, Dose Constraints, and Competing Risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parker, William; Filion, Edith; Roberge, David; Freeman, Carolyn R.

    2007-01-01

    Purpose: To report the results of an analysis of dose received to tissues and organs outside the target volume, in the setting of spinal axis irradiation for the treatment of medulloblastoma, using three treatment techniques. Methods and Materials: Treatment plans (total dose, 23.4 Gy) for a standard two-dimensional (2D) technique, a three-dimensional (3D) technique using a 3D imaging-based target volume, and an intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) technique, were compared for 3 patients in terms of dose-volume statistics for target coverage, as well as organ at risk (OAR) and overall tissue sparing. Results: Planning target volume coverage and dose homogeneity was superior for the IMRT plans for V 95% (IMRT, 100%; 3D, 96%; 2D, 98%) and V 107% (IMRT, 3%; 3D, 38%; 2D, 37%). In terms of OAR sparing, the IMRT plan was better for all organs and whole-body contour when comparing V 10Gy , V 15Gy , and V 20Gy . The 3D plan was superior for V 5Gy and below. For the heart and liver in particular, the IMRT plans provided considerable sparing in terms of V 10Gy and above. In terms of the integral dose, the IMRT plans were superior for liver (IMRT, 21.9 J; 3D, 28.6 J; 2D, 38.6 J) and heart (IMRT, 9 J; 3D, 14.1J; 2D, 19.4 J), the 3D plan for the body contour (IMRT, 349 J; 3D, 337 J; 2D, 555 J). Conclusions: Intensity-modulated radiotherapy is a valid treatment option for spinal axis irradiation. We have shown that IMRT results in sparing of organs at risk without a significant increase in integral dose

  5. Diversion Path Analysis Handbook. Volume 1. Methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goodwin, K.E.; Schleter, J.C.; Maltese, M.D.K.

    1978-11-01

    Diversion Path Analysis (DPA) is a safeguards evaluation tool which is used to determine the vulnerability of the Material Control and Material Accounting (MC and MA) Subsystems to the threat of theft of Special Nuclear Material (SNM) by a knowledgeable Insider. The DPA team should consist of two individuals who have technical backgrounds. The implementation of DPA is divided into five basic steps: Information and Data Gathering, Process Characterization, Analysis of Diversion Paths, Results and Findings, and Documentation

  6. Price-volume multifractal analysis and its application in Chinese stock markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Ying; Zhuang, Xin-tian; Liu, Zhi-ying

    2012-06-01

    An empirical research on Chinese stock markets is conducted using statistical tools. First, the multifractality of stock price return series, ri(ri=ln(Pt+1)-ln(Pt)) and trading volume variation series, vi(vi=ln(Vt+1)-ln(Vt)) is confirmed using multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis. Furthermore, a multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis between stock price return and trading volume variation in Chinese stock markets is also conducted. It is shown that the cross relationship between them is also found to be multifractal. Second, the cross-correlation between stock price Pi and trading volume Vi is empirically studied using cross-correlation function and detrended cross-correlation analysis. It is found that both Shanghai stock market and Shenzhen stock market show pronounced long-range cross-correlations between stock price and trading volume. Third, a composite index R based on price and trading volume is introduced. Compared with stock price return series ri and trading volume variation series vi, R variation series not only remain the characteristics of original series but also demonstrate the relative correlation between stock price and trading volume. Finally, we analyze the multifractal characteristics of R variation series before and after three financial events in China (namely, Price Limits, Reform of Non-tradable Shares and financial crisis in 2008) in the whole period of sample to study the changes of stock market fluctuation and financial risk. It is found that the empirical results verified the validity of R.

  7. Yucca Mountain transportation routes: Preliminary characterization and risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Souleyrette, R.R. II; Sathisan, S.K.; di Bartolo, R.

    1991-01-01

    This report presents appendices related to the preliminary assessment and risk analysis for high-level radioactive waste transportation routes to the proposed Yucca Mountain Project repository. Information includes data on population density, traffic volume, ecologically sensitive areas, and accident history

  8. DISC1 and striatal volume: a potential risk phenotype for mental illness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Mallar eChakravarty

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Disrupted-in-schizophrenia 1 was originally discovered in a large Scottish family with abnormally high rates of severe mental illness, including schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, and depression. An accumulating body of evidence from genetic, postmortem, and animal data supports a role for DISC1 in different forms of mental illness. DISC1 may play an important role in determining structure and function of several brain regions. One brain region of particular importance for several mental disorders is the striatum, and DISC1 mutant mice have demonstrated an increase in dopamine (D2 receptors in this structure. However, association between DISC1 functional polymorphisms and striatal structure have not been examined in humans to our knowledge. We, therefore hypothesized that there would be a relationship between human striatal volume and DISC1 genotype, specifically in the Leu607Phe (rs6675281 and Ser704Cys (rs821618 single nucleotide polymorphisms. We tested our hypothesis by automatically identifying the striatum in fifty-four healthy volunteers recruited for this study. We also performed an exploratory analysis of cortical thickness, cortical surface area, and structure volume. Our results demonstrate that Phe allele carriers have larger striatal volume bilaterally (left striatum: p=0.017; right striatum: p=0.016. From the exploratory analyses we found that Phe carriers also had larger right hemisphere volumes and right occipital lobe surface area (p=0.014 compared to LeuLeu homozygotes (p=0.0074. However, these exploratory findings do not survive a conservative correction for multiple comparisons. Our findings demonstrate that a functional DISC1 variant influences striatal volumes. Taken together with animal data that this gene influences D2 receptor levels in striatum, a key risk pathway for mental illnesses such as schizophrenia and bipolar disorder may be conferred via DISC1’s effects on the striatum .

  9. Identification of risk factors for post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography pancreatitis in a high volume center.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Veit Phillip

    Full Text Available Pancreatitis is the most common complication of endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP. Several patients´ or procedure related risk factors for post-ERCP pancreatitis (PEP have been suggested. The aim of this study was to validate the risk factors for PEP in a high-volume center.All patients undergoing first time ERCP at a tertiary referral center between December 2010 and October 2013 were retrospectively included. PEP was defined according to the Atlanta Classification.344 patients were included in the final analysis. The risk to develop PEP was increased in patients with chronic pancreatitis (odds ratio 3.7 and after inadvertent cannulation of the pancreatic duct (odds ratio 2.2, which occurred in 26.5% of the patients. Inadvertent cannulation occurred significantly more frequently in patients with difficult cannulation of the papilla duodeni major (odds ratio 12.7; p<0.001. ERCP on call was associated with an increased risk for difficult cannulation (odds ratio 3.0.Inadvertent cannulation of the pancreatic duct is a procedure related risk factor for PEP. Measurements on preventing inadvertent cannulation of the pancreatic duct should be established and studies on prophylactic measurements should focus particularly on patients with inadvertent cannulation of the pancreatic duct.

  10. Identification of risk factors for post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography pancreatitis in a high volume center.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillip, Veit; Schwab, Miriam; Haf, David; Algül, Hana

    2017-01-01

    Pancreatitis is the most common complication of endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP). Several patients´ or procedure related risk factors for post-ERCP pancreatitis (PEP) have been suggested. The aim of this study was to validate the risk factors for PEP in a high-volume center. All patients undergoing first time ERCP at a tertiary referral center between December 2010 and October 2013 were retrospectively included. PEP was defined according to the Atlanta Classification. 344 patients were included in the final analysis. The risk to develop PEP was increased in patients with chronic pancreatitis (odds ratio 3.7) and after inadvertent cannulation of the pancreatic duct (odds ratio 2.2), which occurred in 26.5% of the patients. Inadvertent cannulation occurred significantly more frequently in patients with difficult cannulation of the papilla duodeni major (odds ratio 12.7; passociated with an increased risk for difficult cannulation (odds ratio 3.0). Inadvertent cannulation of the pancreatic duct is a procedure related risk factor for PEP. Measurements on preventing inadvertent cannulation of the pancreatic duct should be established and studies on prophylactic measurements should focus particularly on patients with inadvertent cannulation of the pancreatic duct.

  11. Volume 2. Probabilistic analysis of HTGR application studies. Supporting data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1980-09-01

    Volume II, Probabilistic Analysis of HTGR Application Studies - Supporting Data, gives the detail data, both deterministic and probabilistic, employed in the calculation presented in Volume I. The HTGR plants and the fossil plants considered in the study are listed. GCRA provided the technical experts from which the data were obtained by MAC personnel. The names of the technical experts (interviewee) and the analysts (interviewer) are given for the probabilistic data

  12. Risk Analysis in Road Tunnels – Most Important Risk Indicators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berchtold, Florian; Knaust, Christian; Thöns, Sebastian

    2016-01-01

    Methodologies on fire risk analysis in road tunnels consider numerous factors affecting risks (risk indicators) and express the results by risk measures. But only few comprehensive studies on effects of risk indicators on risk measures are available. For this reason, this study quantifies...... the effects and highlights the most important risk indicators with the aim to support further developments in risk analysis. Therefore, a system model of a road tunnel was developed to determine the risk measures. The system model can be divided into three parts: the fire part connected to the fire model Fire...... Dynamics Simulator (FDS); the evacuation part connected to the evacuation model FDS+Evac; and the frequency part connected to a model to calculate the frequency of fires. This study shows that the parts of the system model (and their most important risk indicators) affect the risk measures in the following...

  13. Shuttle user analysis (study 2.2). Volume 3: Business risk and value of operations in space (BRAVO). Part 5: Analysis of GSFC Earth Observation Satellite (EOS) system mission model using BRAVO techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    1975-01-01

    Cost comparisons were made between three modes of operation (expend, ground refurbish, and space resupply) for the Earth Observation System (EOS-B) to furnish data to NASA on alternative ways to use the shuttle/EOS. Results of the analysis are presented in tabular form.

  14. Economic Risk Assessment Taking Into Account the Volume Oscillator Indicators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Loredana Mihaela LAPADUSI

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Economic risk can be assessed from many points of view, but generally speaking it means the firm's inability to match workload with cost structure. Expansion of production capacity, adaptation to new technologies, diversification of products are only a few factors influencing risk. These, along with financial risk and bankruptcy risk constitute the most important category of risk which presents a great interest for the banks, shareholders, managers, business partners, etc. The purpose of this article is to provide a brief overview of tje oscillation of your company's activity from the point of view of economic risk. The main objective of this research lies in economic risk assessment by means of the margin of safety, the safety index and critical time point.

  15. What is a risk. [Quantitative risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schoen, G [Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt, Braunschweig (Germany, F.R.)

    1979-02-01

    The following article is a revised version of a lecture given by the author during the VDE meeting 'Technical Expert Activities' in Brunswick. First of all, the concept of 'risk' is discussed which leads to a probability scale which then permits a definition of the 'justifiable risk' as the boundary between 'hazard' and 'safety'. The boundary is quantified indirectly from laws, regulations, instructions, etc. to the 'Technological rules' for special fields of application by minimum requirement data. These viewpoints described in detail are not only of substantial significance for the creation of safety regulations but also for their application and consequently for jurisdiction.

  16. Stormwater Volume Control to Prevent Increases in Lake Flooding and Dam Failure Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potter, K. W.

    2017-12-01

    Urban expansion is not often considered a major factor contributing to dam failure. But if urbanization occurs without mitigation of the hydrologic impacts, the risk of dam failure will increase. Of particular concern are increases in the volume of storm runoff resulting from increases in the extent of impervious surfaces. Storm runoff volumes are not regulated for much the U.S, and where they are, the required control is commonly less than 100%. Unmitigated increases in runoff volume due to urbanization can pose a risk to dams. A recent technical advisory committee of Dane County has recommended that the county require 100% control of stormwater volumes for new developments. The primary motivation was to prevent increases in the water levels in the Yahara Lakes, slowly draining lakes that are highly sensitive to runoff volume. The recommendations included the use of "volume trading" to achieve efficient compliance. Such recommendations should be considered for other slowly draining lakes, including those created by artificial structures.

  17. Statistical analysis of rockfall volume distributions: Implications for rockfall dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dussauge, Carine; Grasso, Jean-Robert; Helmstetter, AgnèS.

    2003-06-01

    We analyze the volume distribution of natural rockfalls on different geological settings (i.e., calcareous cliffs in the French Alps, Grenoble area, and granite Yosemite cliffs, California Sierra) and different volume ranges (i.e., regional and worldwide catalogs). Contrary to previous studies that included several types of landslides, we restrict our analysis to rockfall sources which originated on subvertical cliffs. For the three data sets, we find that the rockfall volumes follow a power law distribution with a similar exponent value, within error bars. This power law distribution was also proposed for rockfall volumes that occurred along road cuts. All these results argue for a recurrent power law distribution of rockfall volumes on subvertical cliffs, for a large range of rockfall sizes (102-1010 m3), regardless of the geological settings and of the preexisting geometry of fracture patterns that are drastically different on the three studied areas. The power law distribution for rockfall volumes could emerge from two types of processes. First, the observed power law distribution of rockfall volumes is similar to the one reported for both fragmentation experiments and fragmentation models. This argues for the geometry of rock mass fragment sizes to possibly control the rockfall volumes. This way neither cascade nor avalanche processes would influence the rockfall volume distribution. Second, without any requirement of scale-invariant quenched heterogeneity patterns, the rock mass dynamics can arise from avalanche processes driven by fluctuations of the rock mass properties, e.g., cohesion or friction angle. This model may also explain the power law distribution reported for landslides involving unconsolidated materials. We find that the exponent values of rockfall volume on subvertical cliffs, 0.5 ± 0.2, is significantly smaller than the 1.2 ± 0.3 value reported for mixed landslide types. This change of exponents can be driven by the material strength, which

  18. Mean platelet volume as a risk stratification tool in the Emergency Department for evaluating patients with ischaemic stroke and TIA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dogan, N.O.; Karakurt, K.

    2013-01-01

    Objective: To investigate the variations of mean platelet volume in patients with ischaemic cerebrovascular complaints, and to find out its diagnostic utility in an acute setting to help risk stratification in patients with ischaemic stroke and transient ischaemic attacks. Methods: The prospective cross-sectional study was conducted at the Gazi University Hospital, Ankara, Turkey, from November 2009 to June 2010. It comprised 143 consecutive patients of acute ischaemic stroke, 39 patients of transient ischaemic attacks and 60 healthy volunteers. SPSS 13 was used for statistical analysis, and so were t-test, one-way analysis of variance test and correlation analysis. Statistical significance was accepted at p <0.05. Results: Mean platelet volume results were significantly higher in patients with cortical infarction and transient ischaemic attack compared to the control group (p <0.001 and p <0.002). A statistically significant increase was also noted in hospitalised patients when compared with discharged patients from the emergency department (p <0.036). A weak positive correlation was identified between the National Institute of Health Stroke Scores and mean platelet volume levels (r=0.207; p <0.001). A significant relationship was identified between mean platelet volume levels and previous stroke (p <0.005). Conclusion: The measurement of mean platelet volume levels may provide useful diagnostic and prognostic information to emergency physicians caring for patients with transient ischaemic attack and ischaemic stroke. In patients with suspected neurological ischaemic symptoms, high levels may be considered as an atherosclerotic risk factor. (author)

  19. Risk factors for radiation pneumonitis after stereotactic radiation therapy for lung tumours: clinical usefulness of the planning target volume to total lung volume ratio.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ueyama, Tomoko; Arimura, Takeshi; Takumi, Koji; Nakamura, Fumihiko; Higashi, Ryutaro; Ito, Soichiro; Fukukura, Yoshihiko; Umanodan, Tomokazu; Nakajo, Masanori; Koriyama, Chihaya; Yoshiura, Takashi

    2018-06-01

    To identify risk factors for symptomatic radiation pneumonitis (RP) after stereotactic radiation therapy (SRT) for lung tumours. We retrospectively evaluated 68 lung tumours in 63 patients treated with SRT between 2011 and 2015. RP was graded according to the National Cancer Institute-Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events version 4.0. SRT was delivered at 7.0-12.0 Gy per each fraction, once daily, to a total of 48-64 Gy (median, 50 Gy). Univariate analysis was performed to assess patient- and treatment-related factors, including age, sex, smoking index (SI), pulmonary function, tumour location, serum Krebs von den Lungen-6 value (KL-6), dose-volume metrics (V5, V10, V20, V30, V40 and VS5), homogeneity index of the planning target volume (PTV), PTV dose, mean lung dose (MLD), contralateral MLD and V2, PTV volume, lung volume and the PTV/lung volume ratio (PTV/Lung). Performance of PTV/Lung in predicting symptomatic RP was also analysed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. The median follow-up period was 21 months. 10 of 63 patients (15.9%) developed symptomatic RP after SRT. On univariate analysis, V10, V20, PTV volume and PTV/Lung were significantly associated with occurrence of RP  ≥Grade 2. ROC curves indicated that symptomatic RP could be predicted using PTV/Lung [area under curve (AUC): 0.88, confidence interval (CI: 0.78-0.95), cut-off value: 1.09, sensitivity: 90.0% and specificity: 72.4%]. PTV/Lung is a good predictor of symptomatic RP after SRT. Advances in knowledge: The cases with high PTV/Lung should be carefully monitored with caution for the occurrence of RP after SRT.

  20. Risk analysis in radiosurgery treatments using risk matrices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delgado, J. M.; Sanchez Cayela, C.; Ramirez, M. L.; Perez, A.

    2011-01-01

    The aim of this study is the risk analysis process stereotactic single-dose radiotherapy and evaluation of those initiating events that lead to increased risk and a possible solution in the design of barriers.

  1. Thermodynamic analysis of a Stirling engine including regenerator dead volume

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Puech, Pascal; Tishkova, Victoria [Universite de Toulouse, UPS, CNRS, CEMES, 29 rue Jeanne Marvig, F-31055 Toulouse (France)

    2011-02-15

    This paper provides a theoretical investigation on the thermodynamic analysis of a Stirling engine with linear and sinusoidal variations of the volume. The regenerator in a Stirling engine is an internal heat exchanger allowing to reach high efficiency. We used an isothermal model to analyse the net work and the heat stored in the regenerator during a complete cycle. We show that the engine efficiency with perfect regeneration doesn't depend on the regenerator dead volume but this dead volume strongly amplifies the imperfect regeneration effect. An analytical expression to estimate the improvement due to the regenerator has been proposed including the combined effects of dead volume and imperfect regeneration. This could be used at the very preliminary stage of the engine design process. (author)

  2. Risk Analysis Group annual progress report 1984

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1985-06-01

    The activities of the Risk Analysis Group at Risoe during 1984 are presented. These include descriptions in some detail of work on general development topics and risk analysis performed as contractor. (author)

  3. Diversion path analysis handbook. Volume I. Methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maltese, M.D.K.; Goodwin, K.E.; Schleter, J.C.

    1976-10-01

    Diversion Path Analysis (DPA) is a procedure for analyzing internal controls of a facility in order to identify vulnerabilities to successful diversion of material by an adversary. The internal covert threat is addressed but the results are also applicable to the external overt threat. The diversion paths are identified. Complexity parameters include records alteration or falsification, multiple removals of sub-threshold quantities, collusion, and access authorization of the individual. Indicators, or data elements and information of significance to detection of unprevented theft, are identified by means of DPA. Indicator sensitivity is developed in terms of the threshold quantity, the elapsed time between removal and indication and the degree of localization of facility area and personnel given by the indicator. Evaluation of facility internal controls in light of these sensitivities defines the capability of interrupting identified adversary action sequences related to acquisition of material at fixed sites associated with the identified potential vulnerabilities. Corrective measures can, in many cases, also be prescribed for management consideration and action. DPA theory and concepts have been developing over the last several years, and initial field testing proved both the feasibility and practicality of the procedure. Follow-on implementation testing verified the ability of facility personnel to perform DPA

  4. RISK ANALYSIS IN MILK PROCESSING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. PIRVUTOIU

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper aimed to evaluate Risk bankruptcy using “Score Method” based on Canon and Holder’s Model. The data were collected from the Balance Sheet and Profit and Loss Account for the period 2005-2007, recorded by a Meat processing Plant (Rador Commercial Company .The study has put in evidence the financial situation of the company,the level of the main financial ratios fundamenting the calculation of Z score function value in the three years The low values of Z score function recorded every year reflects that the company is still facing backruptcy. However , the worst situation was recorded in the years 2005 and 2006, when baknruptcy risk was ranging between 70 – 80 % . In the year 2007, the risk bankruptcy was lower, ranging between 50-70 % , as Z function recorded a value lower than 4 .For Meat processing companies such an analysis is compulsory at present as long as business environment is very risky in our country.

  5. Prefrontal gray matter volume mediates genetic risks for obesity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Opel, N; Redlich, R; Kaehler, C; Grotegerd, D; Dohm, K; Heindel, W; Kugel, H; Thalamuthu, A; Koutsouleris, N; Arolt, V; Teuber, A; Wersching, H; Baune, B T; Berger, K; Dannlowski, U

    2017-05-01

    Genetic and neuroimaging research has identified neurobiological correlates of obesity. However, evidence for an integrated model of genetic risk and brain structural alterations in the pathophysiology of obesity is still absent. Here we investigated the relationship between polygenic risk for obesity, gray matter structure and body mass index (BMI) by the use of univariate and multivariate analyses in two large, independent cohorts (n=330 and n=347). Higher BMI and higher polygenic risk for obesity were significantly associated with medial prefrontal gray matter decrease, and prefrontal gray matter was further shown to significantly mediate the effect of polygenic risk for obesity on BMI in both samples. Building on this, the successful individualized prediction of BMI by means of multivariate pattern classification algorithms trained on whole-brain imaging data and external validations in the second cohort points to potential clinical applications of this imaging trait marker.

  6. Frequency Analysis of Gradient Estimators in Volume Rendering

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bentum, Marinus Jan; Lichtenbelt, Barthold B.A.; Malzbender, Tom

    1996-01-01

    Gradient information is used in volume rendering to classify and color samples along a ray. In this paper, we present an analysis of the theoretically ideal gradient estimator and compare it to some commonly used gradient estimators. A new method is presented to calculate the gradient at arbitrary

  7. Grey matter volume patterns in thalamic nuclei are associated with familial risk for schizophrenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pergola, Giulio; Trizio, Silvestro; Di Carlo, Pasquale; Taurisano, Paolo; Mancini, Marina; Amoroso, Nicola; Nettis, Maria Antonietta; Andriola, Ileana; Caforio, Grazia; Popolizio, Teresa; Rampino, Antonio; Di Giorgio, Annabella; Bertolino, Alessandro; Blasi, Giuseppe

    2017-02-01

    Previous evidence suggests reduced thalamic grey matter volume (GMV) in patients with schizophrenia (SCZ). However, it is not considered an intermediate phenotype for schizophrenia, possibly because previous studies did not assess the contribution of individual thalamic nuclei and employed univariate statistics. Here, we hypothesized that multivariate statistics would reveal an association of GMV in different thalamic nuclei with familial risk for schizophrenia. We also hypothesized that accounting for the heterogeneity of thalamic GMV in healthy controls would improve the detection of subjects at familial risk for the disorder. We acquired MRI scans for 96 clinically stable SCZ, 55 non-affected siblings of patients with schizophrenia (SIB), and 249 HC. The thalamus was parceled into seven regions of interest (ROIs). After a canonical univariate analysis, we used GMV estimates of thalamic ROIs, together with total thalamic GMV and premorbid intelligence, as features in Random Forests to classify HC, SIB, and SCZ. Then, we computed a Misclassification Index for each individual and tested the improvement in SIB detection after excluding a subsample of HC misclassified as patients. Random Forests discriminated SCZ from HC (accuracy=81%) and SIB from HC (accuracy=75%). Left anteromedial thalamic volumes were significantly associated with both multivariate classifications (p<0.05). Excluding HC misclassified as SCZ improved greatly HC vs. SIB classification (Cohen's d=1.39). These findings suggest that multivariate statistics identify a familial background associated with thalamic GMV reduction in SCZ. They also suggest the relevance of inter-individual variability of GMV patterns for the discrimination of individuals at familial risk for the disorder. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Two Alzheimer’s disease risk genes increase entorhinal cortex volume in young adults

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amanda Marie Dibattista

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Alzheimer’s disease (AD risk genes alter brain structure and function decades before disease onset. Apolipoprotein E (APOE is the strongest known genetic risk factor for Alzheimer’s disease, and a related gene, apolipoprotein J (APOJ, also affects disease risk. However, the extent to which these genes affect brain structure in young adults remains unclear. Here, we report that AD risk alleles of these two genes, APOE-ε4 and APOJ-C, cumulatively alter brain volume in young adults. Using voxel-based morphometry in 57 individuals, we examined the entorhinal cortex, one of the earliest brain regions affected in AD pathogenesis. APOE-ε4 carriers exhibited higher right entorhinal cortex volume compared to non-carriers. Interestingly, APOJ-C risk genotype was associated with higher bilateral entorhinal cortex volume in non-APOE-ε4 carriers. To determine the combined disease risk of APOE and APOJ status per subject, we used cumulative odds ratios as regressors for volumetric measurements. Higher disease risk corresponded to greater right entorhinal cortex volume. These results suggest that, years before disease onset, two key AD genetic risk factors may exert influence on the structure of a brain region where AD pathogenesis takes root.

  9. Two Alzheimer’s disease risk genes increase entorhinal cortex volume in young adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    DiBattista, Amanda Marie; Stevens, Benson W.; Rebeck, G. William; Green, Adam E.

    2014-01-01

    Alzheimer’s disease (AD) risk genes alter brain structure and function decades before disease onset. Apolipoprotein E (APOE) is the strongest known genetic risk factor for AD, and a related gene, apolipoprotein J (APOJ), also affects disease risk. However, the extent to which these genes affect brain structure in young adults remains unclear. Here, we report that AD risk alleles of these two genes, APOE-ε4 and APOJ-C, cumulatively alter brain volume in young adults. Using voxel-based morphometry (VBM) in 57 individuals, we examined the entorhinal cortex, one of the earliest brain regions affected in AD pathogenesis. Apolipoprotein E-ε4 carriers exhibited higher right entorhinal cortex volume compared to non-carriers. Interestingly, APOJ-C risk genotype was associated with higher bilateral entorhinal cortex volume in non-APOE-ε4 carriers. To determine the combined disease risk of APOE and APOJ status per subject, we used cumulative odds ratios as regressors for volumetric measurements. Higher disease risk corresponded to greater right entorhinal cortex volume. These results suggest that, years before disease onset, two key AD genetic risk factors may exert influence on the structure of a brain region where AD pathogenesis takes root. PMID:25339884

  10. Sectional analysis for volume determination and selection of volume equations for the Tapajos Nacional Forest

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renato Bezerra da Silva Ribeiro

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to analyze different sections lengths for volume determination, fitting of volumetric models for timber production estimation in an area of forest management in the Tapajós National Forest (FNT. Six treatments for sectioning were tested in 152 logs of 12 commercial species. The obtained volumes were statistically compared by analysis of variance (ANOVA for the choice of the best method of sectioning and calculating the actual volume of 2,094 sample trees in different diameter commercial classes. Ten mathematical models were fitted to the whole data and to the species Manilkara huberi (Ducke Chevalier (maçaranduba Lecythis lurida (Miers Samori (jarana and Hymenaea courbaril L. (Jatobá. The criteria to choose the best model were adjusted coefficient of determination in percentage (R2adj%, standard error of estimate in percentage (Syx%, significance of the parameters, normality of residuals, Variance Inflation Factor (VIF and residuals graphic distribution. There was no statistical difference between the methods of sectioning and thus the total length of the logs was more operational in the field. The models in logarithmic form of Schumacher and Hall and Spurr were the best to estimate the volume for the species and for the whole sample set.

  11. Community Documentation Centre on Industrial Risk. Volume 3 (consolidated volume containing also content of vol. 1 and 2)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1990-09-01

    The Directorate-General for Environment, Nuclear Safety and Civil Protection of the Commission of the European Communities is responsible for the effective and harmonized implementation of the Directive 82/501/EEC on the major-accident hazards of certain industrial activities. To this end, the Commission, in collaboration with the Committee of Competent Authorities responsible for the implementation of this Directive in the twelve Member States, carries out a whole range of activities. One of the most essential areas for action identified was the need for a systematic diffusion of information concerning the practical implementation of the Directive in the Member States, including the technical rules and guidelines applied, the safety practices and the lessons learnt from major accidents. Therefore, the Commission decided to set up a Community Documentation Centre on Industrial Risks (CDCIR). This Documentation Centre is run by the European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Systems Engineering and Informatics (ISEI), at Ispra, Italy, among its support activities on the implementation of the Directive. The Documentation Centre will collect, classify and review technical rules, guidelines and documents concerning the requirements of the Directive, as well as the safety of industrial installations produced by governments, administrative, scientific or technical bodies, national or international organizations and industrial or professional associations. Documents on major accidents in the form of reports, videotapes will also be collected and reviewed. The Centre is accessible to interested visitors, documents which are not covered by copyright and are not restricted can be obtained from the Documentation Centre on request. Periodical volumes which will feature the inventory, including abstracts, of the collected material will be published and made available to all interested parties. The Centre will also publish documents devoted to compare existing

  12. Volume conduction effects on wavelet cross-bicoherence analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Memon, I.A.; Channa, C.

    2013-01-01

    Cross-bicoherence analysis is one of the important nonlinear signal processing tools which is used to measure quadratic phase coupling between frequencies of two different time series. It is frequently used in the diagnosis of various cognitive and neurological disorders in EEG (Electroencephalography) analysis. Volume conduction effects of various uncorrelated sources present in the brain can produce biased estimates into the estimated values of cross-bicoherence function. Previous studies have discussed volume conduction effects on coherence function which is used to measure linear relationship between EEG signals in terms of their phase and amplitude. However, volume conduction effect on cross-bicoherence analysis which is quite a different technique has not been investigated up to now to the best of our knowledge. This study is divided into two major parts, the first part deals with the investigation of VCUS (Volume Conduction effects due to Uncorrelated Sources) characteristics on EEG-cross-bicoherence analysis. The simulated EEG data due to uncorrelated sources present in the brain was used in this part of study. The next part of study is based upon investigating the effects of VCUS on the statistical analysis of results of EEG-based cross-bicoherence analysis. The study provides an important clinical application because most of studies based on EEG cross-bicoherence analysis have avoided the issue of VCUS. The cross-bicoherence analysis was performed by detecting the change in MSCB (Magnitude Square Cross-Bicoherence Function) between EEG activities of change detection and no-change detection trials. The real EEG signals were used. (author)

  13. Hydrothermal analysis in engineering using control volume finite element method

    CERN Document Server

    Sheikholeslami, Mohsen

    2015-01-01

    Control volume finite element methods (CVFEM) bridge the gap between finite difference and finite element methods, using the advantages of both methods for simulation of multi-physics problems in complex geometries. In Hydrothermal Analysis in Engineering Using Control Volume Finite Element Method, CVFEM is covered in detail and applied to key areas of thermal engineering. Examples, exercises, and extensive references are used to show the use of the technique to model key engineering problems such as heat transfer in nanofluids (to enhance performance and compactness of energy systems),

  14. Analysis of the chemical equilibrium of combustion at constant volume

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marius BREBENEL

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Determining the composition of a mixture of combustion gases at a given temperature is based on chemical equilibrium, when the equilibrium constants are calculated on the assumption of constant pressure and temperature. In this paper, an analysis of changes occurring when combustion takes place at constant volume is presented, deriving a specific formula of the equilibrium constant. The simple reaction of carbon combustion in pure oxygen in both cases (constant pressure and constant volume is next considered as example of application, observing the changes occurring in the composition of the combustion gases depending on temperature.

  15. User's guide for PRISM (Plant Risk Status Information Management System) Arkansas Nuclear One-Unit 1: Volume 1, Program for inspectors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Campbell, D.J.; Guthrie, V.H.; Kirchner, J.R.; Kirkman, J.Q.; Paula, H.M.; Ellison, B.C.; Dycus, F.M.; Farquharson, J.A.; Flanagan, G.F.

    1988-03-01

    This user's guide is a two-volume document designed to teach NRC inspectors and NRC regulators how to access probabilistic risk assessment information from the two Plant Risk Status Information Management System (PRISIM) programs developed for Arkansas Nuclear One -- Unit One (ANO-1). This document, Volume 1, describes how the PRA information available in Version 1.0 of PRISIM is useful for planning inspections. Using PRISIM, inspectors can quickly access PRA information and use that information to update risk analysis results, reflecting a plant's status at any particular time. Both volumes are stand-alone documents, and each volume presents several sample computer sessions designed to lead the user through a variety of PRISIM applications used to obtain PRA-related information for monitoring and controlling plant risk

  16. User's guide for PRISM (Plant Risk Status Information Management System) Arkansas Nuclear One-Unit 1: Volume 1, Program for inspectors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Campbell, D.J.; Guthrie, V.H.; Kirchner, J.R.; Kirkman, J.Q.; Paula, H.M.; Ellison, B.C.; Dycus, F.M.; Farquharson, J.A.; Flanagan, G.F.

    1988-03-01

    This user's guide is a two-volume document designed to teach NRC inspectors and NRC regulators how to access probabilistic risk assessment information from the two Plant Risk Status Information Management System (PRISIM) programs developed for Arkansas Nuclear One -- Unit One (ANO-1). This document, Volume 1, describes how the PRA information available in Version 1.0 of PRISIM is useful for planning inspections. Using PRISIM, inspectors can quickly access PRA information and use that information to update risk analysis results, reflecting a plant's status at any particular time. Both volumes are stand-alone documents, and each volume presents several sample computer sessions designed to lead the user through a variety of PRISIM applications used to obtain PRA-related information for monitoring and controlling plant risk.

  17. Risk for affective disorders is associated with greater prefrontal gray matter volumes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Macoveanu, Julian; Baaré, William Frans Christian; Madsen, Kristoffer H

    2018-01-01

    Background: Major depression and bipolar disorders aggregates in families and are linked with a wide range ofneurobiological abnormalities including cortical gray matter (GM) alterations. Prospective studies of individualsat familial risk may expose the neural mechanisms underlying risk...... inferior frontal cortex compared to high- and low-risk twins who remainedwell at follow-up.Conclusion: This pattern of apparently stable grater regional GM volume may constitute a neural marker of anincreased risk for developing an affective disorder in individuals at familial risk....... transmission.Methods: We used voxel based morphometry to investigate changes in regional GM brain volume, over a seven-year period, in 37 initially healthy individuals having a mono- or di-zygotic twin diagnosed with major de-pression or bipolar disorder (high-risk group; mean age 41.6 yrs.) as compared to 36...

  18. A non-perturbative analysis in finite volume gauge theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koller, J.; State Univ. of New York, Stony Brook; Van Baal, P.; State Univ. of New York, Stony Brook

    1988-01-01

    We discuss SU(2) gauge theory on a three-torus using a finite volume expansion. Our discovery of natural coordinates allows us to obtain continuum results in a region where Monte Carlo data are also available. The obtained results agree well with the perturbative and semiclassical analysis for small volumes, and there is fair agreement with the Monte Carlo results in intermediate volumes. The simple picture which emerges for the approximate low energy dynamics is that of three interacting particles enclosed in a sphere, with zero total 'angular momentum'. The validity of an adiabatic approximation is investigated. The fundamentally new understanding gained, is that non-perturbative dynamics can be incorporated by imposing boundary conditions which arise through the nontrivial topology of configuration space. (orig.)

  19. Micro analysis of fringe field formed inside LDA measuring volume

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghosh, Abhijit; Nirala, A K

    2016-01-01

    In the present study we propose a technique for micro analysis of fringe field formed inside laser Doppler anemometry (LDA) measuring volume. Detailed knowledge of the fringe field obtained by this technique allows beam quality, alignment and fringe uniformity to be evaluated with greater precision and may be helpful for selection of an appropriate optical element for LDA system operation. A complete characterization of fringes formed at the measurement volume using conventional, as well as holographic optical elements, is presented. Results indicate the qualitative, as well as quantitative, improvement of fringes formed at the measurement volume by holographic optical elements. Hence, use of holographic optical elements in LDA systems may be advantageous for improving accuracy in the measurement. (paper)

  20. RAMS (Risk Analysis - Modular System) methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stenner, R.D.; Strenge, D.L.; Buck, J.W. [and others

    1996-10-01

    The Risk Analysis - Modular System (RAMS) was developed to serve as a broad scope risk analysis tool for the Risk Assessment of the Hanford Mission (RAHM) studies. The RAHM element provides risk analysis support for Hanford Strategic Analysis and Mission Planning activities. The RAHM also provides risk analysis support for the Hanford 10-Year Plan development activities. The RAMS tool draws from a collection of specifically designed databases and modular risk analysis methodologies and models. RAMS is a flexible modular system that can be focused on targeted risk analysis needs. It is specifically designed to address risks associated with overall strategy, technical alternative, and `what if` questions regarding the Hanford cleanup mission. RAMS is set up to address both near-term and long-term risk issues. Consistency is very important for any comparative risk analysis, and RAMS is designed to efficiently and consistently compare risks and produce risk reduction estimates. There is a wide range of output information that can be generated by RAMS. These outputs can be detailed by individual contaminants, waste forms, transport pathways, exposure scenarios, individuals, populations, etc. However, they can also be in rolled-up form to support high-level strategy decisions.

  1. Hospital volume and the risk of revision in Oxford unicompartmental knee arthroplasty in the Nordic countries -an observational study of 14,496 cases

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Badawy, Mona; Fenstad, Anne M.; Bartz-Johannessen, Christoffer A.

    2017-01-01

    Background: High procedure volume and dedication to unicompartmental knee arthroplasty (UKA) has been suggested to improve revision rates. This study aimed to quantify the annual hospital volume effect on revision risk in Oxfordu? nicompartmental knee arthroplasty in the Nordic countries. Methods......). The outcome was revision risk after 2 and 10 years calculated using Kaplan Meier method. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to assess the Hazard Ratio (HR) of any revision due to specific reasons with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results: The implant survival was 80% at 10 years in the volume...

  2. Probabilistic risk assessment course documentation. Volume 1: PRA fundamentals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Breeding, R.J.; Leahy, T.J.; Young, J.

    1985-08-01

    The full range of PRA topics is presented, with a special emphasis on systems analysis and PRA applications. Systems analysis topics include system modeling such as fault tree and event tree construction, failure rate data, and human Reliability. The discussion of PRA applications is centered on past and present PRA based programs, such as WASH-1400 and the Interim Reliability Evaluation Program, as well as on some of the potential future applications of PRA. The relationship of PRA to generic safety issues such as station blackout and Anticipated Transient Without Scram (ATWS) is also discussed. In addition to system modeling, the major PRA tasks of accident process analysis, and consequence analysis are presented. An explanation of the results of these activities, and the techniques by which these results are derived, forms the basis for a discussion of these topics. An additional topic which is presented in this course is the topic of PRA management, organization, and evaluation. 84 figs., 41 tabs

  3. Price-volume multifractal analysis of the Moroccan stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    El Alaoui, Marwane

    2017-11-01

    In this paper, we analyzed price-volume multifractal cross-correlations of Moroccan Stock Exchange. We chose the period from January 1st 2000 to January 20th 2017 to investigate the multifractal behavior of price change and volume change series. Then, we used multifractal detrended cross-correlations analysis method (MF-DCCA) and multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) to analyze the series. We computed bivariate generalized Hurst exponent, Rényi exponent and spectrum of singularity for each pair of indices to measure quantitatively cross-correlations. Furthermore, we used detrended cross-correlations coefficient (DCCA) and cross-correlation test (Q(m)) to analyze cross-correlation quantitatively and qualitatively. By analyzing results, we found existence of price-volume multifractal cross-correlations. The spectrum width has a strong multifractal cross-correlation. We remarked that volume change series is anti-persistent when we analyzed the generalized Hurst exponent for all moments q. The cross-correlation test showed the presence of a significant cross-correlation. However, DCCA coefficient had a small positive value, which means that the level of correlation is not very significant. Finally, we analyzed sources of multifractality and their degree of contribution in the series.

  4. Understanding PSA and its derivatives in prediction of tumor volume: Addressing health disparities in prostate cancer risk stratification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chinea, Felix M; Lyapichev, Kirill; Epstein, Jonathan I; Kwon, Deukwoo; Smith, Paul Taylor; Pollack, Alan; Cote, Richard J; Kryvenko, Oleksandr N

    2017-03-28

    To address health disparities in risk stratification of U.S. Hispanic/Latino men by characterizing influences of prostate weight, body mass index, and race/ethnicity on the correlation of PSA derivatives with Gleason score 6 (Grade Group 1) tumor volume in a diverse cohort. Using published PSA density and PSA mass density cutoff values, men with higher body mass indices and prostate weights were less likely to have a tumor volume PSA derivatives when predicting for tumor volume. In receiver operator characteristic analysis, area under the curve values for all PSA derivatives varied across race/ethnicity with lower optimal cutoff values for Hispanic/Latino (PSA=2.79, PSA density=0.06, PSA mass=0.37, PSA mass density=0.011) and Non-Hispanic Black (PSA=3.75, PSA density=0.07, PSA mass=0.46, PSA mass density=0.008) compared to Non-Hispanic White men (PSA=4.20, PSA density=0.11 PSA mass=0.53, PSA mass density=0.014). We retrospectively analyzed 589 patients with low-risk prostate cancer at radical prostatectomy. Pre-operative PSA, patient height, body weight, and prostate weight were used to calculate all PSA derivatives. Receiver operating characteristic curves were constructed for each PSA derivative per racial/ethnic group to establish optimal cutoff values predicting for tumor volume ≥0.5 cm3. Increasing prostate weight and body mass index negatively influence PSA derivatives for predicting tumor volume. PSA derivatives' ability to predict tumor volume varies significantly across race/ethnicity. Hispanic/Latino and Non-Hispanic Black men have lower optimal cutoff values for all PSA derivatives, which may impact risk assessment for prostate cancer.

  5. Streamlining project delivery through risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-08-01

    Project delivery is a significant area of concern and is subject to several risks throughout Plan Development : Process (PDP). These risks are attributed to major areas of project development, such as environmental : analysis, right-of-way (ROW) acqu...

  6. Pituitary gland volume and psychosocial stress among children at elevated risk for schizophrenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cullen, A E; Day, F L; Roberts, R E; Pariante, C M; Laurens, K R

    2015-11-01

    Pituitary volume enlargements have been observed among individuals with first-episode psychosis. These abnormalities are suggestive of hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis hyperactivity, which may contribute to the development of psychosis. However, the extent to which these abnormalities characterize individuals at elevated risk for schizophrenia prior to illness onset is currently unclear, as volume increases, decreases and no volume differences have all been reported relative to controls. The current study aimed to determine whether antipsychotic-naive, putatively at-risk children who present multiple antecedents of schizophrenia (ASz) or a family history of illness (FHx) show pituitary volume abnormalities relative to typically developing (TD) children. An additional aim was to explore the association between pituitary volume and experiences of psychosocial stress. ASz (n = 30), FHx (n = 22) and TD (n = 32) children were identified at age 9-12 years using a novel community-screening procedure or as relatives of individuals with schizophrenia. Measures of pituitary volume and psychosocial stress were obtained at age 11-14 years. Neither ASz nor FHx children showed differences in pituitary volume relative to TD children. Among FHx children only, pituitary volume was negatively associated with current distress relating to negative life events and exposure to physical punishment. The lack of pituitary volume abnormalities among ASz and FHx children is consistent with our previous work demonstrating that these children are not characterized by elevated diurnal cortisol levels. The findings imply that these biological markers of HPA axis hyperactivity, observed in some older samples of high-risk individuals, may emerge later, more proximally to disease onset.

  7. CADDIS Volume 4. Data Analysis: Exploratory Data Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Intro to exploratory data analysis. Overview of variable distributions, scatter plots, correlation analysis, GIS datasets. Use of conditional probability to examine stressor levels and impairment. Exploring correlations among multiple stressors.

  8. Genetic Schizophrenia Risk Variants Jointly Modulate Total Brain and White Matter Volume

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Terwisscha van Scheltinga, Afke F; Bakker, Steven C; van Haren, Neeltje E M

    2013-01-01

    with total brain volume (R(2)=.048, p=1.6×10(-4)) and white matter volume (R(2)=.051, p=8.6×10(-5)) equally in patients and control subjects. The number of (independent) SNPs that substantially influenced both disease risk and white matter (n=2020) was much smaller than the entire set of SNPs that modulated...... modulating schizophrenia and brain volume. METHODS: Odds ratios for genome-wide SNP data were calculated in the sample collected by the Psychiatric Genome-wide Association Study Consortium (8690 schizophrenia patients and 11,831 control subjects, excluding subjects from the present study). These were used...

  9. High initial tidal volumes in emergency department patients at risk for acute respiratory distress syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allison, Michael G; Scott, Michael C; Hu, Kami M; Witting, Michael D; Winters, Michael E

    2015-04-01

    Emergency department (ED) patients are at high risk for the acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Settings only 1 mL/kg above recommended tidal volumes confers harm for these patients. The purpose of this study was to determine whether ED physicians routinely initiate mechanical ventilation with low tidal volumes in patients at risk for ARDS. We retrospectively reviewed the charts of all adult patients who were intubated in an urban, academic ED. The charts were analyzed to identify patients in whom ARDS developed within 48 hours after ED admission. Patients were eligible for inclusion if they had bilateral infiltrates on imaging, had a Pao2/Fio2 ratio less than 300 mm Hg and did not have heart failure contributing to their presentation. The tidal volumes set in the ED were then compared with the recommended tidal volume of 6 mL/kg of predicted body weight. The initial tidal volumes set in the ED were higher than recommended by an average of 80 mL (95% confidence interval, 60-110, P tidal volume ventilation setting. In an academic, tertiary hospital, newly intubated ED patients in whom ARDS developed within 48 hours after intubation were ventilated with tidal volumes that exceeded recommendations by an average of 1.5 mL/kg. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. SLUDGE TREATMENT PROJECT ALTERNATIVES ANALYSIS SUMMARY REPORT (VOLUME 1)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fredrickson, J.R.; Rourk, R.J.; Honeyman, J.O.; Johnson, M.E.; Raymond, R.E.

    2009-01-01

    Highly radioactive sludge (containing up to 300,000 curies of actinides and fission products) resulting from the storage of degraded spent nuclear fuel is currently stored in temporary containers located in the 105-K West storage basin near the Columbia River. The background, history, and known characteristics of this sludge are discussed in Section 2 of this report. There are many compelling reasons to remove this sludge from the K-Basin. These reasons are discussed in detail in Section1, and they include the following: (1) Reduce the risk to the public (from a potential release of highly radioactive material as fine respirable particles by airborne or waterborn pathways); (2) Reduce the risk overall to the Hanford worker; and (3) Reduce the risk to the environment (the K-Basin is situated above a hazardous chemical contaminant plume and hinders remediation of the plume until the sludge is removed). The DOE-RL has stated that a key DOE objective is to remove the sludge from the K-West Basin and River Corridor as soon as possible, which will reduce risks to the environment, allow for remediation of contaminated areas underlying the basins, and support closure of the 100-KR-4 operable unit. The environmental and nuclear safety risks associated with this sludge have resulted in multiple legal and regulatory remedial action decisions, plans,and commitments that are summarized in Table ES-1 and discussed in more detail in Volume 2, Section 9

  11. SLUDGE TREATMENT PROJECT ALTERNATIVES ANALYSIS SUMMARY REPORT [VOLUME 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    FREDERICKSON JR; ROURK RJ; HONEYMAN JO; JOHNSON ME; RAYMOND RE

    2009-01-19

    Highly radioactive sludge (containing up to 300,000 curies of actinides and fission products) resulting from the storage of degraded spent nuclear fuel is currently stored in temporary containers located in the 105-K West storage basin near the Columbia River. The background, history, and known characteristics of this sludge are discussed in Section 2 of this report. There are many compelling reasons to remove this sludge from the K-Basin. These reasons are discussed in detail in Section1, and they include the following: (1) Reduce the risk to the public (from a potential release of highly radioactive material as fine respirable particles by airborne or waterborn pathways); (2) Reduce the risk overall to the Hanford worker; and (3) Reduce the risk to the environment (the K-Basin is situated above a hazardous chemical contaminant plume and hinders remediation of the plume until the sludge is removed). The DOE-RL has stated that a key DOE objective is to remove the sludge from the K-West Basin and River Corridor as soon as possible, which will reduce risks to the environment, allow for remediation of contaminated areas underlying the basins, and support closure of the 100-KR-4 operable unit. The environmental and nuclear safety risks associated with this sludge have resulted in multiple legal and regulatory remedial action decisions, plans,and commitments that are summarized in Table ES-1 and discussed in more detail in Volume 2, Section 9.

  12. Diversion Path Analysis handbook. Volume 4 (of 4 volumes). Computer Program 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schleter, J.C.

    1978-11-01

    The FORTRAN IV computer program, DPA Computer Program 2 (DPACP-2) is used to produce tables and statistics on modifications identified when performing a Diversion Path Analysis (DPA) in accord with the methodology given in Volume 1. The program requires 259088 bytes exclusive of the operating system. The data assembled and tabulated by DPACP-2 assist the DPA team in analyzing and evaluating modifications to the plant's safeguards system that would eliminate, or reduce the severity of, vulnerabilities identified by means of the DPA. These vulnerabilities relate to the capability of the plant's material control and material accounting subsystems to indicate diversion of special nuclear material (SNM) by a knowledgeable insider

  13. Risk for affective disorders is associated with greater prefrontal gray matter volumes: A prospective longitudinal study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Macoveanu, Julian; Baaré, William; Madsen, Kristoffer Hougaard

    2017-01-01

    transmission. Methods: We used voxel based morphometry to investigate changes in regional GM brain volume, over a seven-year period, in 37 initially healthy individuals having a mono- or di-zygotic twin diagnosed with major depression or bipolar disorder (high-risk group; mean age 41.6 yrs.) as compared to 36...... anterior cingulate, inferior frontal gyrus and temporoparietal regions as compared to low-risk twins. Further, individuals who developed an affective disorder at follow-up (n=12), had relatively the largest GM volumes, both at baseline and follow-up, in the right dorsal anterior cingulate cortex and right...

  14. Time series analysis of brain regional volume by MR image

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tanaka, Mika; Tarusawa, Ayaka; Nihei, Mitsuyo; Fukami, Tadanori; Yuasa, Tetsuya; Wu, Jin; Ishiwata, Kiichi; Ishii, Kenji

    2010-01-01

    The present study proposed a methodology of time series analysis of volumes of frontal, parietal, temporal and occipital lobes and cerebellum because such volumetric reports along the process of individual's aging have been scarcely presented. Subjects analyzed were brain images of 2 healthy males and 18 females of av. age of 69.0 y, of which T1-weighted 3D SPGR (spoiled gradient recalled in the steady state) acquisitions with a GE SIGNA EXCITE HD 1.5T machine were conducted for 4 times in the time series of 42-50 months. The image size was 256 x 256 x (86-124) voxels with digitization level 16 bits. As the template for the regions, the standard gray matter atlas (icbn452 a tlas p robability g ray) and its labeled one (icbn.Labels), provided by UCLA Laboratory of Neuro Imaging, were used for individual's standardization. Segmentation, normalization and coregistration were performed with the MR imaging software SPM8 (Statistic Parametric Mapping 8). Volumes of regions were calculated as their voxel ratio to the whole brain voxel in percent. It was found that the regional volumes decreased with aging in all above lobes examined and cerebellum in average percent per year of -0.11, -0.07, -0.04, -0.02, and -0.03, respectively. The procedure for calculation of the regional volumes, which has been manually operated hitherto, can be automatically conducted for the individual brain using the standard atlases above. (T.T.)

  15. Age and prostate volume are risk factors for transient urinary incontinence after transurethral enucleation with bipolar for benign prostatic hyperplasia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirasawa, Yosuke; Kato, Yuji; Fujita, Kiichiro

    2018-01-01

    To investigate the predictive factors for transient urinary incontinence after transurethral enucleation with bipolar. We retrospectively analyzed the data of 584 patients who underwent transurethral enucleation with bipolar between December 2011 and September 2016 operated by a single surgeon. Urinary incontinence after transurethral enucleation with bipolar was defined as involuntary leakage of urine that required the use of pads. It was evaluated at 1 week, and 1, 3, 6, 12 and 24 months after transurethral enucleation with bipolar. We defined transient urinary incontinence as urinary incontinence persisting up to 1 month after transurethral enucleation with bipolar. Based on independent risk factors identified by a multivariate stepwise logistic regression analysis, a nomogram to predict transient urinary incontinence was developed. Of the 584 patients, 17.3%, 13.5%, 3.1%, 0.41%, and 0% patients had urinary incontinence at 1 week, 1, 3, 6 and 12 months after transurethral enucleation with bipolar, respectively. The mean (±standard error) age was 69.6 ± 0.26 years, estimated prostate volume was 54.7 ± 0.91 cm 3 , operative time was 58.0 ± 1.1 min and the prostate specimen weight was 30.6 ± 0.69 g. On univariate analysis, age, prostate volume estimated by transrectal ultrasonography, prostate-specific antigen, prostate specimen weight, operative time, prostate specimen weight/prostate volume and prostate specimen weight/operative time were significant predictive factors for transient urinary incontinence after transurethral enucleation with bipolar. On multivariate analysis, age (hazard ratio 1.07, P-value = 0.0034) and prostate volume (hazard ratio 1.03, P-value bipolar. Age and prostate volume estimated by transrectal ultrasonography seem to represent significant independent risk factors for transient urinary incontinence after transurethral enucleation with bipolar. This should be well discussed with the patient before surgery. © 2017 The Japanese

  16. Hippocampal volume changes in healthy subjects at risk of unipolar depression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baaré, William F C; Vinberg, Maj; Knudsen, Gitte M

    2010-01-01

    Unipolar depression is moderately heritable. It is unclear whether structural brain changes associated with unipolar depression are present in healthy persons at risk of the disorder. Here we investigated whether a genetic predisposition to unipolar depression is associated with structural brain...... changes. A priori, hippocampal volume reductions were hypothesized. Using a high-risk study design, magnetic resonance imaging brain scans were obtained from 59 healthy high-risk subjects having a co-twin with unipolar depression, and 53 healthy low-risk subjects without a first-degree family history...

  17. ATWS: a reappraisal, part II, evaluation of societal risks due to reactor protection systems failure. Vol. 3. Pwr risk analysis. Phase report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lellouche, G.S.

    1976-08-01

    This document is the third volume of part 2 in a series of studies which will examine the basis for the problem of Anticipated Transients Without Scram (ATWS). The purpose of part 2 is an evaluation of societal risks due to RPS failure based on more current data and methodology than used in WASH-1270. This volume examines and documents the potential contribution to societal risk due to ATWS in the PWR. Volumes 1 and 2 described a similar analysis for the BWR

  18. Dose-volume complication analysis for visual pathway structures of patients with advanced paranasal sinus tumors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martel, Mary Kaye; Sandler, Howard M.; Cornblath, Wayne T.; Marsh, Lon H.; Hazuka, Mark B.; Roa, Wilson H.; Fraass, Benedict A.; Lichter, Allen S.

    1997-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of the present work was to relate dose and volume information to complication data for visual pathway structures in patients with advanced paranasal sinus tumors. Methods and Materials: Three-dimensional (3D) dose distributions for chiasm, optic nerve, and retina were calculated and analyzed for 20 patients with advanced paranasal sinus malignant tumors. 3D treatment planning with beam's eye view capability was used to design beam and block arrangements, striving to spare the contralateral orbit (to lessen the chance of unilateral blindness) and frequently the ipsilateral orbit (to help prevent bilateral blindness). Point doses, dose-volume histogram analysis, and normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) calculations were performed. Published tolerance doses that indicate significant risk of complications were used as guidelines for analysis of the 3D dose distributions. Results: Point doses, percent volume exceeding a specified published tolerance dose, and NTCP calculations are given in detail for patients with complications versus patients without complications. Two optic nerves receiving maximum doses below the published tolerance dose sustained damage (mild vision loss). Three patients (of 13) without optic nerve sparing and/or chiasm sparing had moderate or severe vision loss. Complication data, including individual patient analysis to estimate overall risk for loss of vision, are given. Conclusion: 3D treatment planning techniques were used successfully to provide bilateral sparing of the globe for most patients. It was more difficult to spare the optic nerves, especially on the ipsilateral side, when prescription dose exceeded the normal tissue tolerance doses. NTCP calculations may be useful in assessing complication risk better than point dose tolerance criteria for the chiasm, optic nerve, and retina. It is important to assess the overall risk of blindness for the patient in addition to the risk for individual visual pathway

  19. Diversion Path Analysis handbook. Volume 3 (of 4 volumes). Computer Program 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schleter, J.C.

    1978-11-01

    The FORTRAN IV computer program, DPA Computer Program 1 (DPACP-1), is used to assemble and tabulate the data for Specific Diversion Paths (SDPs) identified when performing a Diversion Path Analysis (DPA) in accord with the methodology given in Volume 1. The program requires 255498 bytes exclusive of the operating system. The data assembled and tabulated by DPACP-1 are used by the DPA team to assist in analyzing vulnerabilities, in a plant's material control and material accounting subsystems, to diversion of special nuclear material (SNM) by a knowledgable insider. Based on this analysis, the DPA team can identify, and propose to plant management, modifications to the plant's safeguards system that would eliminate, or reduce the severity of, the identified vulnerabilities. The data are also used by plant supervision when investigating a potential diversion

  20. CADDIS Volume 4. Data Analysis: Selecting an Analysis Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    An approach for selecting statistical analyses to inform causal analysis. Describes methods for determining whether test site conditions differ from reference expectations. Describes an approach for estimating stressor-response relationships.

  1. Risk analysis and safety rationale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bengtsson, G.

    1989-01-01

    Decision making with respect to safety is becoming more and more complex. The risk involved must be taken into account together with numerous other factors such as the benefits, the uncertainties and the public perception. Can the decision maker be aided by some kind of system, general rules of thumb, or broader perspective on similar decisions? This question has been addressed in a joint Nordic project relating to nuclear power. Modern techniques for risk assessment and management have been studied, and parallels drawn to such areas as offshore safety and management of toxic chemicals in the environment. The report summarises the finding of 5 major technical reports which have been published in the NORD-series. The topics includes developments, uncertainties and limitations in probabilistic safety assessments, negligible risks, risk-cost trade-offs, optimisation of nuclear safety and radiation protection, and the role of risks in the decision making process. (author) 84 refs

  2. Environmental risk analysis of hazardous material rail transportation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saat, Mohd Rapik; Werth, Charles J.; Schaeffer, David; Yoon, Hongkyu; Barkan, Christopher P.L.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Comprehensive, nationwide risk assessment of hazardous material rail transportation. • Application of a novel environmental (i.e. soil and groundwater) consequence model. • Cleanup cost and total shipment distance are the most significant risk factors. • Annual risk varies from $20,000 to $560,000 for different products. • Provides information on the risk cost associated with specific product shipments. -- Abstract: An important aspect of railroad environmental risk management involves tank car transportation of hazardous materials. This paper describes a quantitative, environmental risk analysis of rail transportation of a group of light, non-aqueous-phase liquid (LNAPL) chemicals commonly transported by rail in North America. The Hazardous Materials Transportation Environmental Consequence Model (HMTECM) was used in conjunction with a geographic information system (GIS) analysis of environmental characteristics to develop probabilistic estimates of exposure to different spill scenarios along the North American rail network. The risk analysis incorporated the estimated clean-up cost developed using the HMTECM, route-specific probability distributions of soil type and depth to groundwater, annual traffic volume, railcar accident rate, and tank car safety features, to estimate the nationwide annual risk of transporting each product. The annual risk per car-mile (car-km) and per ton-mile (ton-km) was also calculated to enable comparison between chemicals and to provide information on the risk cost associated with shipments of these products. The analysis and the methodology provide a quantitative approach that will enable more effective management of the environmental risk of transporting hazardous materials

  3. Environmental risk analysis of hazardous material rail transportation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saat, Mohd Rapik, E-mail: mohdsaat@illinois.edu [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1243 Newmark Civil Engineering Laboratory, 205 North Mathews Avenue, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); Werth, Charles J.; Schaeffer, David [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1243 Newmark Civil Engineering Laboratory, 205 North Mathews Avenue, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); Yoon, Hongkyu [Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM 87123 (United States); Barkan, Christopher P.L. [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1243 Newmark Civil Engineering Laboratory, 205 North Mathews Avenue, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States)

    2014-01-15

    Highlights: • Comprehensive, nationwide risk assessment of hazardous material rail transportation. • Application of a novel environmental (i.e. soil and groundwater) consequence model. • Cleanup cost and total shipment distance are the most significant risk factors. • Annual risk varies from $20,000 to $560,000 for different products. • Provides information on the risk cost associated with specific product shipments. -- Abstract: An important aspect of railroad environmental risk management involves tank car transportation of hazardous materials. This paper describes a quantitative, environmental risk analysis of rail transportation of a group of light, non-aqueous-phase liquid (LNAPL) chemicals commonly transported by rail in North America. The Hazardous Materials Transportation Environmental Consequence Model (HMTECM) was used in conjunction with a geographic information system (GIS) analysis of environmental characteristics to develop probabilistic estimates of exposure to different spill scenarios along the North American rail network. The risk analysis incorporated the estimated clean-up cost developed using the HMTECM, route-specific probability distributions of soil type and depth to groundwater, annual traffic volume, railcar accident rate, and tank car safety features, to estimate the nationwide annual risk of transporting each product. The annual risk per car-mile (car-km) and per ton-mile (ton-km) was also calculated to enable comparison between chemicals and to provide information on the risk cost associated with shipments of these products. The analysis and the methodology provide a quantitative approach that will enable more effective management of the environmental risk of transporting hazardous materials.

  4. Risk Analysis of Telecom Enterprise Financing

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YU Hua; SHU Hua-ying

    2005-01-01

    The main research objects in this paper are the causes searching and risk estimating method for telecom enterprises' financial risks. The multi-mode financing for telecom enterprises makes it flexible to induce the capital and obtain the profit by corresponding projects. But there are also potential risks going with these financing modes. After making analysis of categories and causes of telecom enterprises' financing risk, a method by Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is put forward to estimating the financing risk. And the author makes her suggestion and opinion by example analysis, in order to provide some ideas and basis for telecom enterprise's financing decision-making.

  5. Leukocyte telomere length and hippocampus volume: a meta-analysis [version 1; referees: 2 approved

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gustav Nilsonne

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Leukocyte telomere length has been shown to correlate to hippocampus volume, but effect estimates differ in magnitude and are not uniformly positive. This study aimed primarily to investigate the relationship between leukocyte telomere length and hippocampus gray matter volume by meta-analysis and secondarily to investigate possible effect moderators. Five studies were included with a total of 2107 participants, of which 1960 were contributed by one single influential study. A random-effects meta-analysis estimated the effect to r = 0.12 [95% CI -0.13, 0.37] in the presence of heterogeneity and a subjectively estimated moderate to high risk of bias. There was no evidence that apolipoprotein E (APOE genotype was an effect moderator, nor that the ratio of leukocyte telomerase activity to telomere length was a better predictor than leukocyte telomere length for hippocampus volume. This meta-analysis, while not proving a positive relationship, also is not able to disprove the earlier finding of a positive correlation in the one large study included in analyses. We propose that a relationship between leukocyte telomere length and hippocamus volume may be mediated by transmigrating monocytes which differentiate into microglia in the brain parenchyma.

  6. PRA and Risk Informed Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernsen, Sidney A.; Simonen, Fredric A.; Balkey, Kenneth R.

    2006-01-01

    The Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code (BPVC) of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) has introduced a risk based approach into Section XI that covers Rules for Inservice Inspection of Nuclear Power Plant Components. The risk based approach requires application of the probabilistic risk assessments (PRA). Because no industry consensus standard existed for PRAs, ASME has developed a standard to evaluate the quality level of an available PRA needed to support a given risk based application. The paper describes the PRA standard, Section XI application of PRAs, and plans for broader applications of PRAs to other ASME nuclear codes and standards. The paper addresses several specific topics of interest to Section XI. Important consideration are special methods (surrogate components) used to overcome the lack of PRA treatments of passive components in PRAs. The approach allows calculations of conditional core damage probabilities both for component failures that cause initiating events and failures in standby systems that decrease the availability of these systems. The paper relates the explicit risk based methods of the new Section XI code cases to the implicit consideration of risk used in the development of Section XI. Other topics include the needed interactions of ISI engineers, plant operating staff, PRA specialists, and members of expert panels that review the risk based programs

  7. Advances in Risk Analysis with Big Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Tsan-Ming; Lambert, James H

    2017-08-01

    With cloud computing, Internet-of-things, wireless sensors, social media, fast storage and retrieval, etc., organizations and enterprises have access to unprecedented amounts and varieties of data. Current risk analysis methodology and applications are experiencing related advances and breakthroughs. For example, highway operations data are readily available, and making use of them reduces risks of traffic crashes and travel delays. Massive data of financial and enterprise systems support decision making under risk by individuals, industries, regulators, etc. In this introductory article, we first discuss the meaning of big data for risk analysis. We then examine recent advances in risk analysis with big data in several topic areas. For each area, we identify and introduce the relevant articles that are featured in the special issue. We conclude with a discussion on future research opportunities. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  8. Risk Factors Associated with Crash Severity on Low-Volume Rural Roads in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prato, Carlo Giacomo; Rasmussen, Thomas Kjær; Kaplan, Sigal

    2014-01-01

    Safety on low-volume rural roads is drawing attention due to the high fatality and severe injury rates in comparison with high-volume roads and the increasing awareness of sustainable rural development among policy makers. This study analyzes the risk factors associated with crash severity on low......-volume rural roads, including crash characteristics, driver attributes and behavior, vehicle type, road features, environmental conditions, distance from the nearest hospital, and zone rurality degree. The data consist of a set of crashes occurred on low-volume rural roads in Denmark between 2007 and 2011...... advantage in accommodating the ordered-response nature of severity while relaxing the proportional odds assumption. Model estimates and pseudoelasticities show that aggravated crash injury severity is significantly associated with (1) alcohol and failure to wear seatbelts, (2) involvement of vulnerable road...

  9. 38 CFR 75.115 - Risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Risk analysis. 75.115 Section 75.115 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS (CONTINUED) INFORMATION SECURITY MATTERS Data Breaches § 75.115 Risk analysis. If a data breach involving sensitive personal information that is processed or...

  10. Substance use and regional gray matter volume in individuals at high risk of psychosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stone, James M; Bhattacharyya, Sagnik; Barker, Gareth J; McGuire, Philip K

    2012-02-01

    Individuals with an at risk mental state (ARMS) are at greatly increased risk of developing a psychotic illness. Risk of transition to psychosis is associated with regionally reduced cortical gray matter volume. There has been considerable interest in the interaction between psychosis risk and substance use. In this study we investigate the relationship between alcohol, cannabis and nicotine use with gray matter volume in ARMS subjects and healthy volunteers. Twenty seven ARMS subjects and 27 healthy volunteers took part in the study. All subjects underwent volumetric MRI imaging. The relationship between regional gray matter volume and cannabis use, smoking, and alcohol use in controls and ARMS subjects was analysed using voxel-based morphometry. In any region where a significant relationship with drug was present, data were analysed to determine if there was any group difference in this relationship. Alcohol intake was inversely correlated with gray matter volume in cerebellum, cannabis intake was use was inversely correlated with gray matter volume in prefrontal cortex and tobacco intake was inversely correlated with gray matter volume in left temporal cortex. There were no significant interactions by group in any region. There is no evidence to support the hypothesis of increased susceptibility to harmful effects of drugs and alcohol on regional gray matter in ARMS subjects. However, alcohol, tobacco and cannabis at low to moderate intake may be associated with lower gray matter in both ARMS subjects and healthy volunteers-possibly representing low-level cortical damage or change in neural plasticity. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Polygenic Risk Score for Alzheimer's Disease: Implications for Memory Performance and Hippocampal Volumes in Early Life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Axelrud, Luiza K; Santoro, Marcos L; Pine, Daniel S; Talarico, Fernanda; Gadelha, Ary; Manfro, Gisele G; Pan, Pedro M; Jackowski, Andrea; Picon, Felipe; Brietzke, Elisa; Grassi-Oliveira, Rodrigo; Bressan, Rodrigo A; Miguel, Eurípedes C; Rohde, Luis A; Hakonarson, Hakon; Pausova, Zdenka; Belangero, Sintia; Paus, Tomas; Salum, Giovanni A

    2018-06-01

    Alzheimer's disease is a heritable neurodegenerative disorder in which early-life precursors may manifest in cognition and brain structure. The authors evaluate this possibility by examining, in youths, associations among polygenic risk score for Alzheimer's disease, cognitive abilities, and hippocampal volume. Participants were children 6-14 years of age in two Brazilian cities, constituting the discovery (N=364) and replication samples (N=352). As an additional replication, data from a Canadian sample (N=1,029), with distinct tasks, MRI protocol, and genetic risk, were included. Cognitive tests quantified memory and executive function. Reading and writing abilities were assessed by standardized tests. Hippocampal volumes were derived from the Multiple Automatically Generated Templates (MAGeT) multi-atlas segmentation brain algorithm. Genetic risk for Alzheimer's disease was quantified using summary statistics from the International Genomics of Alzheimer's Project. Analyses showed that for the Brazilian discovery sample, each one-unit increase in z-score for Alzheimer's polygenic risk score significantly predicted a 0.185 decrement in z-score for immediate recall and a 0.282 decrement for delayed recall. Findings were similar for the Brazilian replication sample (immediate and delayed recall, β=-0.259 and β=-0.232, both significant). Quantile regressions showed lower hippocampal volumes bilaterally for individuals with high polygenic risk scores. Associations fell short of significance for the Canadian sample. Genetic risk for Alzheimer's disease may affect early-life cognition and hippocampal volumes, as shown in two independent samples. These data support previous evidence that some forms of late-life dementia may represent developmental conditions with roots in childhood. This result may vary depending on a sample's genetic risk and may be specific to some types of memory tasks.

  12. Reliability and validity of risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aven, Terje; Heide, Bjornar

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we investigate to what extent risk analysis meets the scientific quality requirements of reliability and validity. We distinguish between two types of approaches within risk analysis, relative frequency-based approaches and Bayesian approaches. The former category includes both traditional statistical inference methods and the so-called probability of frequency approach. Depending on the risk analysis approach, the aim of the analysis is different, the results are presented in different ways and consequently the meaning of the concepts reliability and validity are not the same.

  13. Probabilistic risk analysis for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hauptmanns, U.

    1988-01-01

    Risk analysis is applied if the calculation of risk from observed failures is not possible, because events contributing substantially to risk are too seldom, as in the case of nuclear reactors. The process of analysis provides a number of benefits. Some of them are listed. After this by no means complete enumeration of possible benefits to be derived from a risk analysis. An outline of risk studiesd for PWR's with some comments on the models used are given. The presentation is indebted to the detailed treatment of the subject given in the PRA Procedures Guide. Thereafter some results of the German Risk Study, Phase B, which is under way are communicated. The paper concludes with some remarks on probabilistic considerations in licensing procedures. (orig./DG)

  14. User's operating procedures. Volume 2: Scout project financial analysis program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, C. G.; Haris, D. K.

    1985-01-01

    A review is presented of the user's operating procedures for the Scout Project Automatic Data system, called SPADS. SPADS is the result of the past seven years of software development on a Prime mini-computer located at the Scout Project Office, NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, Virginia. SPADS was developed as a single entry, multiple cross-reference data management and information retrieval system for the automation of Project office tasks, including engineering, financial, managerial, and clerical support. This volume, two (2) of three (3), provides the instructions to operate the Scout Project Financial Analysis program in data retrieval and file maintenance via the user friendly menu drivers.

  15. Tools for the analysis of dose optimization: I. Effect-volume histogram

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alber, M.; Nuesslin, F.

    2002-01-01

    With the advent of dose optimization algorithms, predominantly for intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT), computer software has progressed beyond the point of being merely a tool at the hands of an expert and has become an active, independent mediator of the dosimetric conflicts between treatment goals and risks. To understand and control the internal decision finding as well as to provide means to influence it, a tool for the analysis of the dose distribution is presented which reveals the decision-making process performed by the algorithm. The internal trade-offs between partial volumes receiving high or low doses are driven by functions which attribute a weight to each volume element. The statistics of the distribution of these weights is cast into an effect-volume histogram (EVH) in analogy to dose-volume histograms. The analysis of the EVH reveals which traits of the optimum dose distribution result from the defined objectives, and which are a random consequence of under- or misspecification of treatment goals. The EVH can further assist in the process of finding suitable objectives and balancing conflicting objectives. If biologically inspired objectives are used, the EVH shows the distribution of local dose effect relative to the prescribed level. (author)

  16. Bias in risk-benefit analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mazur, A.

    1985-01-01

    Risk-benefit analysis has become popular in the past decade as a means of improving decision making, especially in the area of technology policy. Here risk-benefit analysis is compared to other (equally defensible) approaches to decision making, showing how it favors some political interests more than others, and suggesting why it has recently come to the fore as a tool of political analysis. A considerable portion of the discussion concerns nuclear power. 6 references

  17. Amygdalar, hippocampal, and thalamic volumes in youth at high risk for development of bipolar disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karchemskiy, Asya; Garrett, Amy; Howe, Meghan; Adleman, Nancy; Simeonova, Diana I; Alegria, Dylan; Reiss, Allan; Chang, Kiki

    2011-12-30

    Children of parents with bipolar disorder (BD), especially those with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and symptoms of depression or mania, are at significantly high risk for developing BD. As we have previously shown amygdalar reductions in pediatric BD, the current study examined amygdalar volumes in offspring of parents (BD offspring) who have not yet developed a full manic episode. Youth participating in the study included 22 BD offspring and 22 healthy controls of comparable age, gender, handedness, and IQ. Subjects had no history of a manic episode, but met criteria for ADHD and moderate mood symptoms. MRI was performed on a 3T GE scanner, using a 3D volumetric spoiled gradient echo series. Amygdalae were manually traced using BrainImage Java software on positionally normalized brain stacks. Bipolar offspring had similar amygdalar volumes compared to the control group. Exploratory analyses yielded no differences in hippocampal or thalamic volumes. Bipolar offspring do not show decreased amygdalar volume, possibly because these abnormalities occur after more prolonged illness rather than as a preexisting risk factor. Longitudinal studies are needed to determine whether amygdalar volumes change during and after the development of BD. 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Collision Risk Analysis for HSC

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Urban, Jesper; Pedersen, Preben Terndrup; Simonsen, Bo Cerup

    1999-01-01

    High Speed Craft (HSC) have a risk profile, which is distinctly different from conventional ferries. Due to different hull building material, structural layout, compartmentation and operation, both frequency and consequences of collision and grounding accidents must be expected to be different fr...

  19. Generalized indices for radiation risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bykov, A.A.; Demin, V.F.

    1989-01-01

    A new approach to ensuring nuclear safety has begun forming since the early eighties. The approach based on the probabilistic safety analysis, the principles of acceptable risk, the optimization of safety measures, etc. has forced a complex of adequate quantitative methods of assessment, safety analysis and risk management to be developed. The method of radiation risk assessment and analysis hold a prominent place in the complex. National and international research and regulatory organizations ICRP, IAEA, WHO, UNSCEAR, OECD/NEA have given much attention to the development of the conceptual and methodological basis of those methods. Some resolutions of the National Commission of Radiological Protection (NCRP) and the Problem Commission on Radiation Hygiene of the USSR Ministry of Health should be also noted. Both CBA (cost benefit analysis) and other methods of radiation risk analysis and safety management use a system of natural and socio-economic indices characterizing the radiation risk or damage. There exist a number of problems associated with the introduction, justification and use of these indices. For example, the price, a, of radiation damage, or collective dose unit, is a noteworthy index. The difficulties in its qualitative and quantitative determination are still an obstacle for a wide application of CBA to the radiation risk analysis and management. During recent 10-15 years these problems have been a subject of consideration for many authors. The present paper also considers the issues of the qualitative and quantitative justification of the indices of radiation risk analysis

  20. Analysis of increasing trend of mortgage volume in the Czech Republic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petra Střelcová

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is an empirical analysis of mortgage volume in the Czech Republic and factors identification of the increasing trend of the mortgage volume in the period from 2001 to 2007. Firstly, analysis of quarterly time series of mortgage volume and average mortgage rate are performed. Consequently, causality between mortgage volume and average mortgage rate is analysed. The morgage rate is the most important factor for economic subjects decision of residential investment. Afterwards, it is analysed causality between mortgage volume and selected factors via multiple regression analysis. Based on this analysis, influencing factors for multiple regression analysis describing mortgage volume are selected. Our empirical analysis validate the causality between mortgage volume and mortgage rate, unemployment rate and price level of real estates. Part of this paper is also economic eduction of causality and estimation of expect progress of mortgage volume especially in connection with present economic and business recession.

  1. Perception and acceptance of technological risk sources. Volume 1. Theory of risk acceptance: research approaches and models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Renn, O

    1981-01-01

    Volume 1 gives an introduction to the scope of this social analysis of the nuclear energy problem; it reviews the state-of-the-art of social research in this field and presents the theoretical and terminological concept and its form of operationalization.

  2. Committee to evaluate Sandia`s risk expertise: Final report. Volume 1: Presentations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dudley, E.C.

    1998-05-01

    On July 1--2, 1997, Sandia National Laboratories hosted the External Committee to Evaluate Sandia`s Risk Expertise. Under the auspices of SIISRS (Sandia`s International Institute for Systematic Risk Studies), Sandia assembled a blue-ribbon panel of experts in the field of risk management to assess their risk programs labs-wide. Panelists were chosen not only for their own expertise, but also for their ability to add balance to the panel as a whole. Presentations were made to the committee on the risk activities at Sandia. In addition, a tour of Sandia`s research and development programs in support of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission was arranged. The panel attended a poster session featuring eight presentations and demonstrations for selected projects. Overviews and viewgraphs from the presentations are included in Volume 1 of this report. Presentations are related to weapons, nuclear power plants, transportation systems, architectural surety, environmental programs, and information systems.

  3. ZNF804A variants confer risk for heroin addiction and affect decision making and gray matter volume in heroin abusers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Yan; Zhao, Li-Yan; Wang, Gui-Bin; Yue, Wei-Hua; He, Yong; Shu, Ni; Lin, Qi-Xiang; Wang, Fan; Li, Jia-Li; Chen, Na; Wang, Hui-Min; Kosten, Thomas R; Feng, Jia-Jia; Wang, Jun; Tang, Yu-De; Liu, Shu-Xue; Deng, Gui-Fa; Diao, Gan-Huan; Tan, Yun-Long; Han, Hong-Bin; Lin, Lu; Shi, Jie

    2016-05-01

    Drug addiction shares common neurobiological pathways and risk genes with other psychiatric diseases, including psychosis. One of the commonly identified risk genes associated with broad psychosis has been ZNF804A. We sought to test whether psychosis risk variants in ZNF804A increase the risk of heroin addiction by modulating neurocognitive performance and gray matter volume (GMV) in heroin addiction. Using case-control genetic analysis, we compared the distribution of ZNF804A variants (genotype and haplotype) in 1035 heroin abusers and 2887 healthy subjects. We also compared neurocognitive performance (impulsivity, global cognitive ability and decision-making ability) in 224 subjects and GMV in 154 subjects based on the ZNF804A variants. We found significant differences in the distribution of ZNF804A intronic variants (rs1344706 and rs7597593) allele and haplotype frequencies between the heroin and control groups. Decision-making impairment was worse in heroin abusers who carried the ZNF804A risk allele and haplotype. Subjects who carried more risk alleles and haplotypes of ZNF804A had greater GMV in the bilateral insular cortex, right temporal cortex and superior parietal cortex. The interaction between heroin addiction and ZNF804A variants affected GMV in the left sensorimotor cortex. Our findings revealed several ZNF804A variants that were significantly associated with the risk of heroin addiction, and these variants affected decision making and GMV in heroin abusers compared with controls. The precise neural mechanisms that underlie these associations are unknown, which requires future investigations of the effects of ZNF804A on both dopamine neurotransmission and the relative increases in the volume of various brain areas. © 2015 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  4. How medical treatment affects mean platelet volume as a cardiovascular risk marker in polycystic ovary syndrome?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kabil Kucur, Suna; Gozukara, Ilay; Aksoy, Aysenur; Uludag, Eda U; Keskin, Havva; Kamalak, Zeynep; Carlioglu, Ayse

    2015-12-01

    Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is a prevalent disease with many potential long-term metabolic and cardiovascular risks if not managed appropriately. Mean platelet volume (MPV) is a marker associated with adverse cardiovascular events. In this study, we aimed to investigate MPV levels under ethinyl estradiol/cyproterone acetate or metformin therapy for the previous 6 months in PCOS. A total of 114 individuals [metformin treatment (n = 18), ethinyl estradiol/cyproterone acetate treatment (n = 29), newly diagnosed PCOS patient with no treatment (n = 35), and control group of eumenorrheic healthy individuals (n = 32)] were included in the current study. Hematologic parameters other than MPV were similar in all groups. The MPV value was significantly higher in the newly diagnosed PCOS patients compared with the other three groups independent of age, BMI, and C-reactive protein level in multiple regression analysis (P < 0.01). The MPV value of control group was comparable to the groups under ethinyl estradiol/cyproterone acetate or metformin therapy (P = 1.0). There was no statistically significant difference in the white blood cell count among the groups. The MPV values were positively correlated with the homeostatic model assessment-insulin resistance and Ferriman-Gallwey Score (P = 0.044, r = 0.261; P = 0.037, r = 0.229, respectively). Ethinyl estradiol/cyproterone acetate and metformin similarly appear to decrease MPV, a marker of cardiovascular risk. Therefore, a possible beneficial effect of ethinyl estradiol/cyproterone acetate and metformin on long-term cardiovascular morbidities in PCOS may be suggested.

  5. Safety analysis, risk assessment, and risk acceptance criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jamali, K.

    1997-01-01

    This paper discusses a number of topics that relate safety analysis as documented in the Department of Energy (DOE) safety analysis reports (SARs), probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) as characterized primarily in the context of the techniques that have assumed some level of formality in commercial nuclear power plant applications, and risk acceptance criteria as an outgrowth of PRA applications. DOE SARs of interest are those that are prepared for DOE facilities under DOE Order 5480.23 and the implementing guidance in DOE STD-3009-94. It must be noted that the primary area of application for DOE STD-3009 is existing DOE facilities and that certain modifications of the STD-3009 approach are necessary in SARs for new facilities. Moreover, it is the hazard analysis (HA) and accident analysis (AA) portions of these SARs that are relevant to the present discussions. Although PRAs can be qualitative in nature, PRA as used in this paper refers more generally to all quantitative risk assessments and their underlying methods. HA as used in this paper refers more generally to all qualitative risk assessments and their underlying methods that have been in use in hazardous facilities other than nuclear power plants. This discussion includes both quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methods. PRA has been used, improved, developed, and refined since the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) was published in 1975 by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Much debate has ensued since WASH-1400 on exactly what the role of PRA should be in plant design, reactor licensing, 'ensuring' plant and process safety, and a large number of other decisions that must be made for potentially hazardous activities. Of particular interest in this area is whether the risks quantified using PRA should be compared with numerical risk acceptance criteria (RACs) to determine whether a facility is 'safe.' Use of RACs requires quantitative estimates of consequence frequency and magnitude

  6. GIS risk analysis of hazardous materials transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anders, C.; Olsten, J.

    1991-01-01

    The Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to assess the risks and vulnerability of transporting hazardous materials and wastes (such as gasoline, explosives, poisons, etc) on the Arizona highway system. This paper discusses the methodology that was utilized, and the application of GIS systems to risk analysis problems

  7. Dealing with phenomenological uncertainty in risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Theofanous, T.G.

    1994-01-01

    The Risk-Oriented Accident Analysis Methodology (ROAAM) is summarized and developed further towards a formal definition. The key ideas behind the methodology and these more formal aspects are also presented and discussed

  8. Risk and safety analysis of nuclear systems

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lee, John C; McCormick, Norman J

    2011-01-01

    .... The first half of the book covers the principles of risk analysis, the techniques used to develop and update a reliability data base, the reliability of multi-component systems, Markov methods used...

  9. Risk analysis for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koelzer, W.

    1983-01-01

    The German risk analysis program for nuclear power plants aiming at the man and the environment is presented. An accident consequence model to calculate the radiological impact and the potential health effects is described. (E.G.) [pt

  10. State of the art in benefit-risk analysis: introduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verhagen, H; Tijhuis, M J; Gunnlaugsdóttir, H; Kalogeras, N; Leino, O; Luteijn, J M; Magnússon, S H; Odekerken, G; Pohjola, M V; Tuomisto, J T; Ueland, Ø; White, B C; Holm, F

    2012-01-01

    Risk-taking is normal in everyday life if there are associated (perceived) benefits. Benefit-Risk Analysis (BRA) compares the risk of a situation to its related benefits and addresses the acceptability of the risk. Over the past years BRA in relation to food and food ingredients has gained attention. Food, and even the same food ingredient, may confer both beneficial and adverse effects. Measures directed at food safety may lead to suboptimal or insufficient levels of ingredients from a benefit perspective. In BRA, benefits and risks of food (ingredients) are assessed in one go and may conditionally be expressed into one currency. This allows the comparison of adverse and beneficial effects to be qualitative and quantitative. A BRA should help policy-makers to make more informed and balanced benefit-risk management decisions. Not allowing food benefits to occur in order to guarantee food safety is a risk management decision much the same as accepting some risk in order to achieve more benefits. BRA in food and nutrition is making progress, but difficulties remain. The field may benefit from looking across its borders to learn from other research areas. The BEPRARIBEAN project (Best Practices for Risk-Benefit Analysis: experience from out of food into food; http://en.opasnet.org/w/Bepraribean) aims to do so, by working together with Medicines, Food Microbiology, Environmental Health, Economics & Marketing-Finance and Consumer Perception. All perspectives are reviewed and subsequently integrated to identify opportunities for further development of BRA for food and food ingredients. Interesting issues that emerge are the varying degrees of risk that are deemed acceptable within the areas and the trend towards more open and participatory BRA processes. A set of 6 'state of the art' papers covering the above areas and a paper integrating the separate (re)views are published in this volume. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Dose-volume analysis of hypothyroidism in patients irradiated to the neck

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Te, Vuong; Liu, Mitchell C.C.; Parker, William; Curtin-Savard, Arthur J.; Clark, Brenda

    1997-01-01

    Purpose: To determine if the incidence of hypothyroidism in patients who have received radiation therapy to the neck region has any relationship with the total dose to the thyroid and volume of thyroid irradiation. Methods and Materials: From 1988 to 1996, TSH levels were measured at regular intervals of every 3 to 6 months in 528 patients with head and neck cancers or lymphomas (Hodgkin and non-Hodgkin) who had received radiation therapy to the neck region. Hypothyroidism was defined by TSH of ≥ 5 (normal range: 0.5 - 4mU/L). Medical charts, radiotherapy charts, treatment planning films, dosimetry and CT scans/MRI were reviewed. Thyroid volume was determined utilizing treatment planning films and CT scans/MRI. Four hundred and six patients had normal TSH prior to radiation and sufficient information to be eligible for analysis. There were 264 (65%) male and 142 (35%) female, median age was 59 yr (range: 12 - 85). Median follow-up was 39.5 months (range: 1 - 289 months). Results: Out of the 406 eligible patients, 152 (37%) had developed hypothyroidism. The actuarial incidence of hypothyroidism at 1 yr, 3 yr and 5 yr are 9.1%, 29% and 38.5%, respectively. Analysis of volume effect and dose effect are as follows: When the radiation dose to the thyroid and the volume of thyroid irradiated are analyzed together, the group of patients who received ≥ 60Gy to half of thyroid or received ≥ 30Gy to the whole thyroid has increased risk of developing hypothyroidism as compared to those receiving <60Gy to half the thyroid or <30Gy to the whole thyroid (p=.0001). Conclusions: The actuarial incidence of hypothyroidism at 5 year in patients who had received radiation to the neck is 38.5%. Patients who received ≥ 60Gy to half the thyroid or received ≥ 30Gy to the whole thyroid are at higher risk of developing hyperthyroidism

  12. Prospects for accelerator neutron sources for large volume minerals analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clayton, C.G.; Spackman, R.

    1988-01-01

    The electron Linac can be regarded as a practical source of thermal neutrons for activation analysis of large volume mineral samples. With a suitable target and moderator, a neutron flux of about 10 10 n/cm/s over 2-3 kg of rock can be generated. The proton Linac gives the possibility of a high neutron yield (> 10 12 n/s) of fast neutrons at selected energies. For the electron Linac, targets of W-U and W-Be are discussed. The advantages and limitations of the system are demonstrated for the analysis of gold in rocks and ores and for platinum in chromitite. These elements were selected as they are most likely to justify an accelerator installation at the present time. Errors due to self shielding in gold particles for thermal neutrons are discussed. The proton Linac is considered for neutrons generated from a lithium target through the 7 Li(p, n) 7 Be reaction. The analysis of gold by fast neutron activation is considered. This approach avoids particle self-absorption and, by appropriate proton energy selection, avoids potentially dominating interfering reactions. The analysis of 235 U in the presence of 238 U and 232 Th is also considered. (author)

  13. Probabilistic risk analysis in chemical engineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmalz, F.

    1991-01-01

    In risk analysis in the chemical industry, recognising potential risks is considered more important than assessing their quantitative extent. Even in assessing risks, emphasis is not on the probability involved but on the possible extent. Qualitative assessment has proved valuable here. Probabilistic methods are used in individual cases where the wide implications make it essential to be able to assess the reliability of safety precautions. In this case, assessment therefore centres on the reliability of technical systems and not on the extent of a chemical risk. 7 figs

  14. Review of Department of Defense Education Activity (DODEA) Schools. Volume II: Quantitative Analysis of Educational Quality

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Anderson, Lowell

    2000-01-01

    This volume compiles, and presents in integrated form, IDA's quantitative analysis of educational quality provided by DoD's dependent schools, It covers the quantitative aspects of volume I in greater...

  15. Frequency Domain Computer Programs for Prediction and Analysis of Rail Vehicle Dynamics : Volume 1. Technical Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    1975-12-01

    Frequency domain computer programs developed or acquired by TSC for the analysis of rail vehicle dynamics are described in two volumes. Volume I defines the general analytical capabilities required for computer programs applicable to single rail vehi...

  16. Emergency department spirometric volume and base deficit delineate risk for torso injury in stable patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sipe Eilynn K

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background We sought to determine torso injury rates and sensitivities associated with fluid-positive abdominal ultrasound, metabolic acidosis (increased base deficit and lactate, and impaired pulmonary physiology (decreased spirometric volume and PaO2/FiO2. Methods Level I trauma center prospective pilot and post-pilot study (2000–2001 of stable patients. Increased base deficit was 2.5 mmol/L in ethanol-negative and ≥ 3.0 mmol/L in ethanol-positive patients. Decreased PaO2/FiO2 was Results Of 215 patients, 66 (30.7% had a torso injury (abdominal/pelvic injury n = 35 and/or thoracic injury n = 43. Glasgow Coma Scale score was 14.8 ± 0.5 (13–15. Torso injury rates and sensitivities were: abdominal ultrasound negative and normal base deficit, lactate, PaO2/FiO2, and spirometric volume – 0.0% & 0.0%; normal base deficit and normal spirometric volume – 4.2% & 4.5%; chest/abdominal soft tissue injury – 37.8% & 47.0%; increased lactate – 39.7% & 47.0%; increased base deficit – 41.3% & 75.8%; increased base deficit and/or decreased spirometric volume – 43.8% & 95.5%; decreased PaO2/FiO2 – 48.9% & 33.3%; positive abdominal ultrasound – 62.5% & 7.6%; decreased spirometric volume – 73.4% & 71.2%; increased base deficit and decreased spirometric volume – 82.9% & 51.5%. Conclusions Trauma patients with normal base deficit and spirometric volume are unlikely to have a torso injury. Patients with increased base deficit or lactate, decreased spirometric volume, decreased PaO2/FiO2, or positive FAST have substantial risk for torso injury. Increased base deficit and/or decreased spirometric volume are highly sensitive for torso injury. Base deficit and spirometric volume values are readily available and increase or decrease the suspicion for torso injury.

  17. Characterisation of radiotherapy planning volumes using textural analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nailon, William H.; Redpath, Anthony T.; McLaren, Duncan B. (Dept. of Oncology Physics, Edinburgh Cancer Centre, Western General Hospital, Edinburgh (United Kingdom))

    2008-08-15

    Computer-based artificial intelligence methods for classification and delineation of the gross tumour volume (GTV) on computerised tomography (CT) and magnetic resonance (MR) images do not, at present, provide the accuracy required for radiotherapy applications. This paper describes an image analysis method for classification of distinct regions within the GTV, and other clinically relevant regions, on CT images acquired on eight bladder cancer patients at the radiotherapy planning stage and thereafter at regular intervals during treatment. Statistical and fractal textural features (N=27) were calculated on the bladder, rectum and a control region identified on axial, coronal and sagittal CT images. Unsupervised classification results demonstrate that with a reduced feature set (N=3) the approach offers significant classification accuracy on axial, coronal and sagittal CT image planes and has the potential to be developed further for radiotherapy applications, particularly towards an automatic outlining approach

  18. Characterisation of radiotherapy planning volumes using textural analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nailon, William H.; Redpath, Anthony T.; McLaren, Duncan B.

    2008-01-01

    Computer-based artificial intelligence methods for classification and delineation of the gross tumour volume (GTV) on computerised tomography (CT) and magnetic resonance (MR) images do not, at present, provide the accuracy required for radiotherapy applications. This paper describes an image analysis method for classification of distinct regions within the GTV, and other clinically relevant regions, on CT images acquired on eight bladder cancer patients at the radiotherapy planning stage and thereafter at regular intervals during treatment. Statistical and fractal textural features (N=27) were calculated on the bladder, rectum and a control region identified on axial, coronal and sagittal CT images. Unsupervised classification results demonstrate that with a reduced feature set (N=3) the approach offers significant classification accuracy on axial, coronal and sagittal CT image planes and has the potential to be developed further for radiotherapy applications, particularly towards an automatic outlining approach

  19. Preseason Workload Volume and High-Risk Periods for Noncontact Injury Across Multiple Australian Football League Seasons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colby, Marcus J; Dawson, Brian; Heasman, Jarryd; Rogalski, Brent; Rosenberg, Michael; Lester, Leanne; Peeling, Peter

    2017-07-01

    Colby, MJ, Dawson, B, Heasman, J, Rogalski, B, Rosenberg, M, Lester, L, and Peeling, P. Preseason workload volume and high-risk periods for noncontact injury across multiple Australian Football League seasons. J Strength Cond Res 31(7): 1821-1829, 2017-The purpose of this study was to assess the association between preseason workloads and noncontact injury risk in Australian football players. Individual player injury data were recorded over 4 full seasons (2012-15) from one professional club. Noncontact injury incidence (per 1,000 "on legs" field training and game hours) was compared across the preseason, precompetition, and in-season phases to determine relative noncontact injury risk. Preseason workloads (global positioning system-derived total distance run and sprint distance) and individual (fixed) injury risk factors (age, previous injury history) were incorporated into the analysis. A generalized estimating equation with a binary logistic function modeled potential risk factors with noncontact injury for selected periods across the annual cycle. Odds ratios were calculated to determine the relative injury risk. The (preseason) precompetition phase (19.1 injuries per 1,000 hours) and (in-season) rounds 12-17 (16.0 injuries per 1,000 hours) resulted in the highest injury incidence. Low cumulative total distances in late preseason (<108 km) and precompetition (76-88 km) periods were associated with significantly (p ≤ 0.05) greater injury risk during the in-season phase. In conclusion, these results suggest players are at the greatest injury risk during the precompetition period, with low preseason cumulative workloads associated with increased in-season injury risk. Therefore, strength and conditioning staff should place particular emphasis on achieving at least moderate training loads during and leading into this phase, where competitive game play is first introduced.

  20. Reliability and risk analysis methods research plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1984-10-01

    This document presents a plan for reliability and risk analysis methods research to be performed mainly by the Reactor Risk Branch (RRB), Division of Risk Analysis and Operations (DRAO), Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research. It includes those activities of other DRAO branches which are very closely related to those of the RRB. Related or interfacing programs of other divisions, offices and organizations are merely indicated. The primary use of this document is envisioned as an NRC working document, covering about a 3-year period, to foster better coordination in reliability and risk analysis methods development between the offices of Nuclear Regulatory Research and Nuclear Reactor Regulation. It will also serve as an information source for contractors and others to more clearly understand the objectives, needs, programmatic activities and interfaces together with the overall logical structure of the program

  1. Gender Analysis of Risk in Innovation System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ayinde, Ope; Muchie, Mammo; Abaniyan, E. O.

    2011-01-01

    the new maize variety. The analytical tools used include descriptive statistics, regression model; risk utility functions and risk parameter analysis. The result showed that invasion by animals, disease and pest, lack of access to credit wind and price fluctuation were the major risk facing the maize......This study analyzed risk by gender in innovation in Kwara state, Nigeria, using downy mildew resistant maize production as case study. The study employed primary and secondary data. The primary data were collected from well-structured questionnaires administered to both male and female producing...... producers in the area in the usage of the new innovation. The study also revealed that male producers were willing to take risk in the new maize variety production than the female, while the females were more indifferent to the risk involved in the new maize production variety than males. None...

  2. Intentional risk management through complex networks analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Chapela, Victor; Moral, Santiago; Romance, Miguel

    2015-01-01

    This book combines game theory and complex networks to examine intentional technological risk through modeling. As information security risks are in constant evolution,  the methodologies and tools to manage them must evolve to an ever-changing environment. A formal global methodology is explained  in this book, which is able to analyze risks in cyber security based on complex network models and ideas extracted from the Nash equilibrium. A risk management methodology for IT critical infrastructures is introduced which provides guidance and analysis on decision making models and real situations. This model manages the risk of succumbing to a digital attack and assesses an attack from the following three variables: income obtained, expense needed to carry out an attack, and the potential consequences for an attack. Graduate students and researchers interested in cyber security, complex network applications and intentional risk will find this book useful as it is filled with a number of models, methodologies a...

  3. Bladder volume at onset of vesicoureteral reflux is an independent risk factor for breakthrough febrile urinary tract infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, Siobhan E; Arlen, Angela M; Storm, Douglas W; Kieran, Kathleen; Cooper, Christopher S

    2015-04-01

    Improved identification of children with vesicoureteral reflux at risk for recurrent febrile urinary tract infection may impact management decisions. We hypothesized that reflux occurring earlier during bladder filling increases the duration of exposure of the kidneys to bacteria, and, therefore, increases the risk of pyelonephritis. Children with vesicoureteral reflux and detailed voiding cystourethrogram data were identified. Bladder volume at onset of reflux was normalized for age. Demographics, reflux grade, laterality, presence/absence of bladder-bowel dysfunction and breakthrough febrile urinary tract infections were assessed. Median followup was 24 months (IQR 12 to 52). A total of 208 girls and 47 boys were analyzed with a mean ± SD age at diagnosis of 3.1 ± 2.6 years. On univariate analysis history of febrile urinary tract infection (HR 2.17, 95% CI 1.33-2.85, p = 0.01), dilating vesicoureteral reflux (HR 1.6, 95% CI 1.05-2.42, p = 0.03) and bladder-bowel dysfunction (HR 1.66, 95% CI 0.99-2.75, p = 0.05) were associated with an increased risk of breakthrough febrile urinary tract infection. Median bladder volume at onset of reflux in children with breakthrough febrile urinary tract infection was significantly less (33.1%) than in those without infection (49.5%, p = 0.003). Reflux onset at 35% predicted bladder capacity or less was associated with a significantly increased risk of breakthrough febrile urinary tract infection on multivariate analysis (HR 1.58, 95% CI 1.05-2.38, p = 0.03). Children with early filling vesicoureteral reflux are at increased risk for breakthrough febrile urinary tract infection independent of reflux grade. Bladder volume at onset of reflux should be recorded during cystograms since it provides additional prognostic information about the risk of pyelonephritis and resolution, and may assist with counseling and clinical decision making. Copyright © 2015 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by

  4. Radiation-Induced Rib Fractures After Hypofractionated Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy: Risk Factors and Dose-Volume Relationship

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Asai, Kaori [Department of Clinical Radiology, Graduate School of Medical Sciences, Kyushu University, Fukuoka (Japan); Shioyama, Yoshiyuki, E-mail: shioyama@radiol.med.kyushu-u.ac.jp [Department of Heavy Particle Therapy and Radiation Oncology, Graduate School of Medical Sciences, Kyushu University, Fukuoka (Japan); Nakamura, Katsumasa; Sasaki, Tomonari; Ohga, Saiji; Nonoshita, Takeshi [Department of Clinical Radiology, Graduate School of Medical Sciences, Kyushu University, Fukuoka (Japan); Yoshitake, Tadamasa [Department of Heavy Particle Therapy and Radiation Oncology, Graduate School of Medical Sciences, Kyushu University, Fukuoka (Japan); Ohnishi, Kayoko [Department of Radiology, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, Tokyo (Japan); Terashima, Kotaro; Matsumoto, Keiji [Department of Clinical Radiology, Graduate School of Medical Sciences, Kyushu University, Fukuoka (Japan); Hirata, Hideki [Department of Health Sciences, Graduate School of Medical Sciences, Kyushu University, Fukuoka (Japan); Honda, Hiroshi [Department of Clinical Radiology, Graduate School of Medical Sciences, Kyushu University, Fukuoka (Japan)

    2012-11-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this study was to clarify the incidence, the clinical risk factors, and the dose-volume relationship of radiation-induced rib fracture (RIRF) after hypofractionated stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT). Methods and Materials: One hundred sixteen patients treated with SBRT for primary or metastatic lung cancer at our institution, with at least 6 months of follow-up and no previous overlapping radiation exposure, were included in this study. To determine the clinical risk factors associated with RIRF, correlations between the incidence of RIRF and the variables, including age, sex, diagnosis, gross tumor volume diameter, rib-tumor distance, and use of steroid administration, were analyzed. Dose-volume histogram analysis was also conducted. Regarding the maximum dose, V10, V20, V30, and V40 of the rib, and the incidences of RIRF were compared between the two groups divided by the cutoff value determined by the receiver operating characteristic curves. Results: One hundred sixteen patients and 374 ribs met the inclusion criteria. Among the 116 patients, 28 patients (46 ribs) experienced RIRF. The estimated incidence of rib fracture was 37.7% at 3 years. Limited distance from the rib to the tumor (<2.0 cm) was the only significant risk factor for RIRF (p = 0.0001). Among the dosimetric parameters used for receiver operating characteristic analysis, the maximum dose showed the highest area under the curve. The 3-year estimated risk of RIRF and the determined cutoff value were 45.8% vs. 1.4% (maximum dose, {>=}42.4 Gy or less), 51.6% vs. 2.0% (V40, {>=}0.29 cm{sup 3} or less), 45.8% vs. 2.2% (V30, {>=}1.35 cm{sup 3} or less), 42.0% vs. 8.5% (V20, {>=}3.62 cm{sup 3} or less), or 25.9% vs. 10.5% (V10, {>=}5.03 cm{sup 3} or less). Conclusions: The incidence of RIRF after hypofractionated SBRT is relatively high. The maximum dose and high-dose volume are strongly correlated with RIRF.

  5. WIPP fire hazards and risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-05-01

    The purpose of this analysis was to conduct a fire hazards risk analysis of the Transuranic (TRU) contact-handled waste receipt, emplacement, and disposal activities at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). The technical bases and safety envelope for these operations are defined in the approved WIPP Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR). Although the safety documentation for the initial phase of the Test Program, the dry bin scale tests, has not yet been approved by the Department of Energy (DOE), reviews of the draft to date, including those by the Advisory Committee on Nuclear Facility Safety (ACNFS), have concluded that the dry bin scale tests present no significant risks in excess of those estimated in the approved WIPP FSAR. It is the opinion of the authors and reviewers of this analysis, based on sound engineering judgment and knowledge of the WIPP operations, that a Fire Hazards and Risk Analysis specific to the dry bin scale test program is not warranted prior to first waste receipt. This conclusion is further supported by the risk analysis presented in this document which demonstrates the level of risk to WIPP operations posed by fire to be extremely low. 15 refs., 41 figs., 48 tabs

  6. Standardised risk analysis as a communication tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pluess, Ch.; Montanarini, M.; Bernauer, M.

    1998-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: several European countries require a risk analysis for the production, storage or transport a dangerous goods. This requirement imposes considerable administrative effort for some sectors of the industry. In order to minimize the effort of such studies, a generic risk analysis for an industrial sector proved to help. Standardised procedures can consequently be derived for efficient performance of the risk investigations. This procedure was successfully established in Switzerland for natural gas transmission lines and fossil fuel storage plants. The development process of the generic risk analysis involved an intense discussion between industry and authorities about methodology of assessment and the criteria of acceptance. This process finally led to scientific consistent modelling tools for risk analysis and to an improved communication from the industry to the authorities and the public. As a recent example, the Holland-Italy natural gas transmission pipeline is demonstrated, where this method was successfully employed. Although this pipeline traverses densely populated areas in Switzerland, using this established communication method, the risk problems could be solved without delaying the planning process. (authors)

  7. Preliminary risk assessment for nuclear waste disposal in space. Volume I. Executive summary of technical report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rice, E.E.; Denning, R.S.; Friedlander, A.L.

    1982-01-01

    Three major conclusions come from this preliminary risk assessment of nuclear waste disposal in space. Preliminary estimates of space disposal risk are low, even with the estimated uncertainty bounds. If calculated mined geologic repository (MGR) release risks remain low, and the EPA requirements continue to be met, then no additional space disposal study effort is warranted. If risks perceived by the public are significant in the acceptance of mined geologic repositories, then consideration of space disposal as an MGR complement is warranted. As a result of this study, the following recommendations are made to NASA and the US DOE: During the continued evaluation of the mined geologic repository risk over the years ahead by DOE, if any significant increase in the calculated health risk is predicted for the MGR, then space disposal should be reevaluated at that time. The risks perceived by the public for the MGR should be evaluated on a broad basis by an independent organization to evaluate acceptance. If, in the future, MGR risks are found to be significant due to some presently unknown technical or social factor, and space disposal is selected as an alternative that may be useful in mitigating the risks, then the following space disposal study activities are recommended: improvement in chemical processing technology for wastes; payload accident response analysis; risk uncertainty analysis for both MGR and space disposal; health risk modeling that includes pathway and dose estimates; space disposal cost modeling; assessment of space disposal perceived (by public) risk benefit; and space systems analysis supporting risk and cost modeling

  8. Pertinent anatomy and analysis for midface volumizing procedures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Surek, Christopher C; Beut, Javier; Stephens, Robert; Jelks, Glenn; Lamb, Jerome

    2015-05-01

    The study was conducted to construct an anatomically inspired midfacial analysis facilitating safe, accurate, and dynamic nonsurgical rejuvenation. Emphasis is placed on determining injection target areas and adverse event zones. Twelve hemifacial fresh cadavers were dissected in a layered fashion. Dimensional measurements between the midfacial fat compartments, prezygomatic space, mimetic muscles, and neurovascular bundles were used to develop a topographic analysis for clinical injections. A longitudinal line from the base of the alar crease to the medial edge of the levator anguli oris muscle (1.9 cm), lateral edge of the levator anguli oris muscle (2.6 cm), and zygomaticus major muscle (4.6 cm) partitions the cheek into two aesthetic regions. A six-step facial analysis outlines three target zones and two adverse event zones and triangulates the point of maximum cheek projection. The lower adverse event zone yields an anatomical explanation to inadvertent jowling during anterior cheek injection. The upper adverse event zone localizes the palpebral branch of the infraorbital artery. The medial malar target area isolates quadrants for anterior cheek projection and tear trough effacement. The middle malar target area addresses lid-cheek blending and superficial compartment turgor. The lateral malar target area highlights lateral cheek projection and locates the prezygomatic space. This stepwise analysis illustrates target areas and adverse event zones to achieve midfacial support, contour, and profile in the repose position and simultaneous molding of a natural shape during animation. This reproducible method can be used both procedurally and in record-keeping for midface volumizing procedures.

  9. Risk analysis of industrial plants operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, Philippe

    1989-12-01

    This study examines the possibilities of systematic technology risk analysis in view of territorial management (city, urban community, region), including chronic and accidental risks. The objective was to relate this evaluation with those done for permanent water and air pollution. Risk management for pollution are done for a long time. A number of studies were done in urban communities and regions both for air and water pollution. The second objective is related to management of industrial risks: nuclear, petrochemical, transport of hazardous material, pipelines, etc. At the beginning, three possibilities of effects are taken into account: human health, economic aspect and water, and possibilities of evaluation are identified. Elements of risk identification are presented for quantification of results [fr

  10. Risk analysis of alternative energy sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kazmer, D.R.

    1982-01-01

    The author explores two points raised by Miller Spangler in a January 1981 issue: public perception of risks involving nuclear power plants relative to those of conventional plants and criteria for evaluating the way risk analyses are made. On the first point, he concludes that translating public attitudes into the experts' language of probability and risk could provide better information and understanding of both the attitudes and the risks. Viewing risk analysis methodologies as filters which help to test historical change, he suggests that the lack of information favors a lay jury approach for energy decisions. Spangler responds that Congress is an example of lay decision making, but that a lay jury, given public disinterest and polarization, would probably not improve social justice on the nuclear issue. 5 references, 4 figures

  11. LANDSAFE: LANDING SITE RISK ANALYSIS SOFTWARE FRAMEWORK

    OpenAIRE

    Schmidt, Ralph; Bostelmann, Jonas; Cornet, Yves; Heipke, Christian; Philippe, Christian; Poncelet, Nadia; de Rosa, Diego; Vandeloise, Yannick

    2012-01-01

    The European Space Agency (ESA) is planning a Lunar Lander mission in the 2018 timeframe that will demonstrate precise soft landing at the polar regions of the Moon. To ensure a safe and successful landing a careful risk analysis has to be carried out. This is comprised of identifying favorable target areas and evaluating the surface conditions in these areas. Features like craters, boulders, steep slopes, rough surfaces and shadow areas have to be identified in order to assess the risk assoc...

  12. Impact Analysis for Risks in Informatics Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Baicu, Floarea; Baches, Maria Alexandra

    2013-01-01

    In this paper are presented methods of impact analysis on informatics system security accidents, qualitative and quantitative methods, starting with risk and informational system security definitions. It is presented the relationship between the risks of exploiting vulnerabilities of security system, security level of these informatics systems, probability of exploiting the weak points subject to financial losses of a company, respectively impact of a security accident on the company. Herewit...

  13. Sound pressure levels generated at risk volume steps of portable listening devices: types of smartphone and genres of music.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Gibbeum; Han, Woojae

    2018-05-01

    The present study estimated the sound pressure levels of various music genres at the volume steps that contemporary smartphones deliver, because these levels put the listener at potential risk for hearing loss. Using six different smartphones (Galaxy S6, Galaxy Note 3, iPhone 5S, iPhone 6, LG G2, and LG G3), the sound pressure levels for three genres of K-pop music (dance-pop, hip-hop, and pop-ballad) and a Billboard pop chart of assorted genres were measured through an earbud for the first risk volume that was at the risk sign proposed by the smartphones, as well as consecutive higher volumes using a sound level meter and artificial mastoid. The first risk volume step of the Galaxy S6 and the LG G2, among the six smartphones, had the significantly lowest (84.1 dBA) and highest output levels (92.4 dBA), respectively. As the volume step increased, so did the sound pressure levels. The iPhone 6 was loudest (113.1 dBA) at the maximum volume step. Of the music genres, dance-pop showed the highest output level (91.1 dBA) for all smartphones. Within the frequency range of 20~ 20,000 Hz, the sound pressure level peaked at 2000 Hz for all the smartphones. The results showed that the sound pressure levels of either the first volume step or the maximum volume step were not the same for the different smartphone models and genres of music, which means that the risk volume sign and its output levels should be unified across the devices for their users. In addition, the risk volume steps proposed by the latest smartphone models are high enough to cause noise-induced hearing loss if their users habitually listen to music at those levels.

  14. Benefit-Cost Analysis of Integrated Paratransit Systems : Volume 6. Technical Appendices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1979-09-01

    This last volume, includes five technical appendices which document the methodologies used in the benefit-cost analysis. They are the following: Scenario analysis methodology; Impact estimation; Example of impact estimation; Sensitivity analysis; Agg...

  15. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  16. Risk analysis of investments in-farm milk cooling tanks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danielle D. Sant´Anna

    2003-06-01

    Full Text Available A risk analysis for the installation of milk cooling tanks (250, 500 and 1,000 L on Brazilian rural properties was conducted in this study. The results showed that all investments had a return higher than the annual 12% minimum rate of attractiveness. There was a direct relationship between tank size and investment profitability and an inverse relation between size and risk. The probability of achieving returns lower than the opportunity cost was highest for the smallest tank (42%. In order to make the investment in small cooling tanks more attractive, the dairy industry incentives offered to farmers for supplying cooled milk could be increased. However, this approach might make investments in bulk milk collection by dairy companies infeasible. Thus, a recommendable strategy for a successful modernization of the Brazilian dairy sector’s inbound logistics would be to promote an increase in the volume of the milk produced per farm.

  17. A genetic analysis of brain volumes and IQ in children

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Leeuwen, M.; Peper, J.S.; van den Berg, S.M.; Brouwer, R.M.; Hulshoff Pol, H.E.; Kahn, R.S.; Boomsma, D.I.

    2009-01-01

    In a population-based sample of 112 nine-year old twin pairs, we investigated the association among total brain volume, gray matter and white matter volume, intelligence as assessed by the Raven IQ test, verbal comprehension, perceptual organization and perceptual speed as assessed by the Wechsler

  18. A Genetic Analysis of Brain Volumes and IQ in Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Leeuwen, Marieke; Peper, Jiska S.; van den Berg, Stephanie M.; Brouwer, Rachel M.; Hulshoff Pol, Hilleke E.; Kahn, Rene S.; Boomsma, Dorret I.

    2009-01-01

    In a population-based sample of 112 nine-year old twin pairs, we investigated the association among total brain volume, gray matter and white matter volume, intelligence as assessed by the Raven IQ test, verbal comprehension, perceptual organization and perceptual speed as assessed by the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children-III. Phenotypic…

  19. New algorithm for risk analysis in radiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Torres, Antonio; Montes de Oca, Joe

    2015-01-01

    Risk analyses applied to radiotherapy treatments have become an undeniable necessity, considering the dangers generated by the combination of using powerful radiation fields on patients and the occurrence of human errors and equipment failures during these treatments. The technique par excellence to execute these analyses has been the risk matrix. This paper presents the development of a new algorithm to execute the task with wide graphic and analytic potentialities, thus transforming it into a very useful option for risk monitoring and the optimization of quality assurance. The system SECURE- MR, which is the basic software of this algorithm, has been successfully used in risk analysis regarding different kinds of radiotherapies. Compared to previous methods, It offers new possibilities of analysis considering risk controlling factors as the robustness of reducers of initiators frequency and its consequences. Their analytic capacities and graphs allow novel developments to classify risk contributing factors, to represent information processes as well as accidental sequences. The paper shows the application of the proposed system to a generic process of radiotherapy treatment using a lineal accelerator. (author)

  20. The watchdog role of risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reijen, G. van; Vinck, W.

    1983-01-01

    The reason why the risks of large-scale technology attract more attention lies in the fact that accidents would have more disastrous results and in the fact that it is probably more attractive to study the risks of some large projects than to do the same for a greater number of smaller projects. Within this presentation there will be some opening remarks on the Role of the Commission of the European Community with regard to accident prevention. The development of the concept of quantitative risks is dealt with. This development leads to a combinded of deterministic and probabilistic methods. The presentation concludes with some critical remarks on quantitative risk analysis and its use. (orig./HP) [de

  1. Implementing the Bayesian paradigm in risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aven, T.; Kvaloey, J.T.

    2002-01-01

    The Bayesian paradigm comprises a unified and consistent framework for analyzing and expressing risk. Yet, we see rather few examples of applications where the full Bayesian setting has been adopted with specifications of priors of unknown parameters. In this paper, we discuss some of the practical challenges of implementing Bayesian thinking and methods in risk analysis, emphasizing the introduction of probability models and parameters and associated uncertainty assessments. We conclude that there is a need for a pragmatic view in order to 'successfully' apply the Bayesian approach, such that we can do the assignments of some of the probabilities without adopting the somewhat sophisticated procedure of specifying prior distributions of parameters. A simple risk analysis example is presented to illustrate ideas

  2. Game Theoretic Risk Analysis of Security Threats

    CERN Document Server

    Bier, Vicki M

    2008-01-01

    Introduces reliability and risk analysis in the face of threats by intelligent agents. This book covers applications to networks, including problems in both telecommunications and transportation. It provides a set of tools for applying game theory TO reliability problems in the presence of intentional, intelligent threats

  3. Economic impact assessment in pest risk analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Soliman, T.A.A.; Mourits, M.C.M.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.; Werf, van der W.

    2010-01-01

    According to international treaties, phytosanitary measures against introduction and spread of invasive plant pests must be justified by a science-based pest risk analysis (PRA). Part of the PRA consists of an assessment of potential economic consequences. This paper evaluates the main available

  4. Low Tidal Volume versus Non-Volume-Limited Strategies for Patients with Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome. A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walkey, Allan J; Goligher, Ewan C; Del Sorbo, Lorenzo; Hodgson, Carol L; Adhikari, Neill K J; Wunsch, Hannah; Meade, Maureen O; Uleryk, Elizabeth; Hess, Dean; Talmor, Daniel S; Thompson, B Taylor; Brower, Roy G; Fan, Eddy

    2017-10-01

    Trials investigating use of lower tidal volumes and inspiratory pressures for patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) have shown mixed results. To compare clinical outcomes of mechanical ventilation strategies that limit tidal volumes and inspiratory pressures (LTV) to strategies with tidal volumes of 10 to 15 ml/kg among patients with ARDS. This is a systematic review and meta-analysis of clinical trials investigating LTV mechanical ventilation strategies. We used random effects models to evaluate the effect of LTV on 28-day mortality, organ failure, ventilator-free days, barotrauma, oxygenation, and ventilation. Our primary analysis excluded trials for which the LTV strategy was combined with the additional strategy of higher positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP), but these trials were included in a stratified sensitivity analysis. We performed metaregression of tidal volume gradient achieved between intervention and control groups on mortality effect estimates. We used Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation methodology to determine the quality of evidence. Seven randomized trials involving 1,481 patients met eligibility criteria for this review. Mortality was not significantly lower for patients receiving an LTV strategy (33.6%) as compared with control strategies (40.4%) (relative risk [RR], 0.87; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.70-1.08; heterogeneity statistic I 2  = 46%), nor did an LTV strategy significantly decrease barotrauma or ventilator-free days when compared with a lower PEEP strategy. Quality of evidence for clinical outcomes was downgraded for imprecision. Metaregression showed a significant inverse association between larger tidal volume gradient between LTV and control groups and log odds ratios for mortality (β, -0.1587; P = 0.0022). Sensitivity analysis including trials that protocolized an LTV/high PEEP cointervention showed lower mortality associated with LTV (nine trials and 1

  5. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 25 Appendix X - Forecast Sea Ice Age.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lowry, Thomas Stephen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jones, Shannon M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Walker, La Tonya Nicole [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Roberts, Barry L. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Malczynski, Leonard A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-05-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  6. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 26 Appendix Y - Historical Ridging Rate.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lowry, Thomas Stephen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jones, Shannon M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Walker, La Tonya Nicole [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Roberts, Barry L. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Malczynski, Leonard A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-05-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  7. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 23 Appendix V - Forecast Sea Ice Thickness

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-04-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  8. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 27 Appendix Z - Forecast Ridging Rate.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-06-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  9. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 24 Appendix W - Historical Sea Ice Age.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lowry, Thomas Stephen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jones, Shannon M [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Walker, La Tonya Nicole [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Roberts, Barry L [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Malczynski, Leonard A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-05-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  10. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 17 Appendix P - Forecast Soil Moisture

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-04-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  11. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 15 Appendix N - Forecast Surface Runoff.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lowry, Thomas Stephen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jones, Shannon M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Walker, La Tonya Nicole [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Roberts, Barry L. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Malczynski, Leonard A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-05-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  12. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 10 Appendix I - Historical Evaporation.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-06-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  13. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 14 Appendix M - Historical Surface Runoff.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-06-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  14. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 8 Appendix G - Historical Precipitation.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-06-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  15. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 12 Appendix K - Historical Rel. Humidity.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-06-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  16. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 16 Appendix O - Historical Soil Moisture.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-06-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  17. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 22 Appendix U - Historical Sea Ice Thickness

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-06-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  18. Supplemental Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment - Hydrotreater

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lowry, Peter P. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wagner, Katie A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-04-01

    A supplemental hazard analysis was conducted and quantitative risk assessment performed in response to an independent review comment received by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) from the U.S. Department of Energy Pacific Northwest Field Office (PNSO) against the Hydrotreater/Distillation Column Hazard Analysis Report issued in April 2013. The supplemental analysis used the hazardous conditions documented by the previous April 2013 report as a basis. The conditions were screened and grouped for the purpose of identifying whether additional prudent, practical hazard controls could be identified, using a quantitative risk evaluation to assess the adequacy of the controls and establish a lower level of concern for the likelihood of potential serious accidents. Calculations were performed to support conclusions where necessary.

  19. Multivariate survival analysis and competing risks

    CERN Document Server

    Crowder, Martin J

    2012-01-01

    Multivariate Survival Analysis and Competing Risks introduces univariate survival analysis and extends it to the multivariate case. It covers competing risks and counting processes and provides many real-world examples, exercises, and R code. The text discusses survival data, survival distributions, frailty models, parametric methods, multivariate data and distributions, copulas, continuous failure, parametric likelihood inference, and non- and semi-parametric methods. There are many books covering survival analysis, but very few that cover the multivariate case in any depth. Written for a graduate-level audience in statistics/biostatistics, this book includes practical exercises and R code for the examples. The author is renowned for his clear writing style, and this book continues that trend. It is an excellent reference for graduate students and researchers looking for grounding in this burgeoning field of research.

  20. Risk and safety analysis of nuclear systems

    CERN Document Server

    Lee, John C

    2011-01-01

    The book has been developed in conjunction with NERS 462, a course offered every year to seniors and graduate students in the University of Michigan NERS program. The first half of the book covers the principles of risk analysis, the techniques used to develop and update a reliability data base, the reliability of multi-component systems, Markov methods used to analyze the unavailability of systems with repairs, fault trees and event trees used in probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs), and failure modes of systems. All of this material is general enough that it could be used in non-nuclear a

  1. Terminological Ontologies for Risk and Vulnerability Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Bodil Nistrup; Erdman Thomsen, Hanne

    2014-01-01

    Risk and vulnerability analyses are an important preliminary stage in civil contingency planning. The Danish Emergency Management Agency has developed a generic model and a set of tools that may be used in the preparedness planning, i.e. for identifying and describing society’s critical functions......, for formulating threat scenarios and for assessing consequences. Terminological ontologies, which are systems of domain specific concepts comprising concept relations and characteristics, are useful, both when describing the central concepts of risk and vulnerability analysis (meta concepts), and for further...

  2. High baseline left ventricular and systolic volume may identify patients at risk of chemotherapy-induced cardiotoxicity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atiar Rahman; Alex Gedevanishvili; Seham Ali; Elma G Briscoe; Vani Vijaykumar

    2004-01-01

    Introduction and Methods: Use of chemotherapeutic drugs in the treatment of cancer may lead to serious cardiotoxicity and to post-treatment heart failure. Various strategies have been developed to minimize the risk of cardiotoxicity including avoiding the total dosage given to each patient above a certain 'threshold' value; and monitoring the patient's cardiac function by means of the 'Multiple Gated Acquisition' (MUGA) scan using Technetium 99m . However, even with all these precautions some patients still develop cardiotoxicity and it is not well known which factors predict deterioration of cardiac functions in patients with optimized chemotherapeutic dosages. In this retrospective study we sought to evaluate the predictive value of seven variables (age, sex, baseline LV ejection fraction, LV end diastolic [LDEDV] and end systolic volumes [LVESV], peak diastolic filling rate, preexisting malignancies requiring chemotherapy) in 172 patients (n=Breast Carcinoma 86, lymphoma 62, Leukemias and others 24) undergoing chemotherapy from 1995 until 2000. There was no cut off for left ventricular ejection fraction prior to chemotherapy. However, patients were excluded from analysis if they had significant cardiac arrhythmias or received doses higher than considered safe for cardiotoxicity at the beginning of the study. Significant cardiotoxicity was defined as a drop in post chemotherapy LVEF by >15%. Results: Logistic regression models were used to predict the probability of developing cardiotoxicity as a function of the seven prognostic covariates. The mean age of all patients was 51+13 years. Significant Cardiac toxicity was noted in 10 percent of patients. The overall risk estimate for subsequent heart failure after chemotherapy, however, climbed to 18 percent in patients with a presenting LVESD >50 mL. Using multivariate logistic regression model, older age was noted to be a weak risk factors for cardiac toxicity (confidence interval 0.8-1.2; p 50 mL) appeared to

  3. Risk analysis for earth dam overtopping

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mo Chongxun

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a model of overtopping risk under the joint effects of floods and wind waves, which is based on risk analysis theory and takes into account the uncertainties of floods, wind waves, reservoir capacity and discharge capacity of the spillway, is proposed and applied to the Chengbihe Reservoir in Baise City in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. The simulated results indicate that the flood control limiting level can be raised by 0.40 m under the condition that the reservoir overtopping risk is controlled within a mean variance of 5×10−6. As a result, the reservoir storage will increase to 16 million m3 and electrical energy generation and other functions of the reservoir will also increase greatly.

  4. Investment appraisal using quantitative risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johansson, Henrik

    2002-07-01

    Investment appraisal concerned with investments in fire safety systems is discussed. Particular attention is directed at evaluating, in terms of the Bayesian decision theory, the risk reduction that investment in a fire safety system involves. It is shown how the monetary value of the change from a building design without any specific fire protection system to one including such a system can be estimated by use of quantitative risk analysis, the results of which are expressed in terms of a Risk-adjusted net present value. This represents the intrinsic monetary value of investing in the fire safety system. The method suggested is exemplified by a case study performed in an Avesta Sheffield factory.

  5. Just-in-Time Training for High-Risk Low-Volume Therapies: An Approach to Ensure Patient Safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helman, Stephanie; Lisanti, Amy Jo; Adams, Ann; Field, Cynthia; Davis, Katherine Finn

    2016-01-01

    High-risk low-volume therapies are those therapies that are practiced infrequently and yet carry an increased risk to patients because of their complexity. Staff nurses are required to competently manage these therapies to treat patients' unique needs and optimize outcomes; however, maintaining competence is challenging. This article describes implementation of Just-in-Time Training, which requires validation of minimum competency of bedside nurses managing high-risk low-volume therapies through direct observation of a return-demonstration competency checklist.

  6. Quantitative Risk Analysis: Method And Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anass BAYAGA

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Recent and past studies (King III report, 2009: 73-75; Stoney 2007;Committee of Sponsoring Organisation-COSO, 2004, Bartell, 2003; Liebenberg and Hoyt, 2003; Reason, 2000; Markowitz 1957 lament that although, the introduction of quantifying risk to enhance degree of objectivity in finance for instance was quite parallel to its development in the manufacturing industry, it is not the same in Higher Education Institution (HEI. In this regard, the objective of the paper was to demonstrate the methods and process of Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA through likelihood of occurrence of risk (phase I. This paper serves as first of a two-phased study, which sampled hundred (100 risk analysts in a University in the greater Eastern Cape Province of South Africa.The analysis of likelihood of occurrence of risk by logistic regression and percentages were conducted to investigate whether there were a significant difference or not between groups (analyst in respect of QRA.The Hosmer and Lemeshow test was non-significant with a chi-square(X2 =8.181; p = 0.300, which indicated that there was a good model fit, since the data did not significantly deviate from the model. The study concluded that to derive an overall likelihood rating that indicated the probability that a potential risk may be exercised within the construct of an associated threat environment, the following governing factors must be considered: (1 threat source motivation and capability (2 nature of the vulnerability (3 existence and effectiveness of current controls (methods and process.

  7. Dependence of the risk of encephalopathy on the radiotherapy volume after combined surgery and radiotherapy of invasive pituitary tumors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rauhut, F.; Stolke, D.; Stuschke, M.; Sack, H.

    2002-01-01

    The effectiveness of radiotherapy in reducing tumor recurrence of pituitary adenomas is well documented. On the other hand, the risk of side effects to the surrounding central nervous system normal tissue should not be underestimated. This retrospective study includes 58 patients with subtotally resected pituitary tumors. Photon from a 5,7 MV linear accelerator of a 60 cobalt unit with a source-isocenter distance of 80 cm were used throughout for treatment. The doses per fraction ranged from 45 Gy to 60 Gy. For a direct comparison of the different fractionation schedules, the biological effective total dose with 2 Gy per fraction was calculated for all the different application schemes with doses per fraction longer or smaller than 2 Gy. To do this, a fractionation sensitivity of the normal cerebral tissue by an □/□ value of 2 Gy was assumed. Encephalopathy developed in 17 cases (28 percentage) after follow-up times of more than 5 years. Pathological CT- or MRI-findings were seen in 13 cases. Two factors were important for the genesis of radiogenic encephalopathy: 1. Multivariate analysis revealed that the risk of encephalopathy was associated with the radiation volume. 2. The location of the upper field border line was the strongest prognostic factor associated with the risk of encephalopathy (p < 0.05). (author)

  8. A workshop on developing risk assessment methods for medical use of radioactive material. Volume 1: Summary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tortorelli, J.P. [ed.] [Lockheed Idaho Technologies Co., Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    1995-08-01

    A workshop was held at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, August 16--18, 1994 on the topic of risk assessment on medical devices that use radioactive isotopes. Its purpose was to review past efforts to develop a risk assessment methodology to evaluate these devices, and to develop a program plan and a scoping document for future methodology development. This report contains a summary of that workshop. Participants included experts in the fields of radiation oncology, medical physics, risk assessment, human-error analysis, and human factors. Staff from the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) associated with the regulation of medical uses of radioactive materials and with research into risk-assessment methods participated in the workshop. The workshop participants concurred in NRC`s intended use of risk assessment as an important technology in the development of regulations for the medical use of radioactive material and encouraged the NRC to proceed rapidly with a pilot study. Specific recommendations are included in the executive summary and the body of this report. An appendix contains the 8 papers presented at the conference: NRC proposed policy statement on the use of probabilistic risk assessment methods in nuclear regulatory activities; NRC proposed agency-wide implementation plan for probabilistic risk assessment; Risk evaluation of high dose rate remote afterloading brachytherapy at a large research/teaching institution; The pros and cons of using human reliability analysis techniques to analyze misadministration events; Review of medical misadministration event summaries and comparison of human error modeling; Preliminary examples of the development of error influences and effects diagrams to analyze medical misadministration events; Brachytherapy risk assessment program plan; and Principles of brachytherapy quality assurance.

  9. A workshop on developing risk assessment methods for medical use of radioactive material. Volume 1: Summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tortorelli, J.P.

    1995-08-01

    A workshop was held at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, August 16--18, 1994 on the topic of risk assessment on medical devices that use radioactive isotopes. Its purpose was to review past efforts to develop a risk assessment methodology to evaluate these devices, and to develop a program plan and a scoping document for future methodology development. This report contains a summary of that workshop. Participants included experts in the fields of radiation oncology, medical physics, risk assessment, human-error analysis, and human factors. Staff from the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) associated with the regulation of medical uses of radioactive materials and with research into risk-assessment methods participated in the workshop. The workshop participants concurred in NRC's intended use of risk assessment as an important technology in the development of regulations for the medical use of radioactive material and encouraged the NRC to proceed rapidly with a pilot study. Specific recommendations are included in the executive summary and the body of this report. An appendix contains the 8 papers presented at the conference: NRC proposed policy statement on the use of probabilistic risk assessment methods in nuclear regulatory activities; NRC proposed agency-wide implementation plan for probabilistic risk assessment; Risk evaluation of high dose rate remote afterloading brachytherapy at a large research/teaching institution; The pros and cons of using human reliability analysis techniques to analyze misadministration events; Review of medical misadministration event summaries and comparison of human error modeling; Preliminary examples of the development of error influences and effects diagrams to analyze medical misadministration events; Brachytherapy risk assessment program plan; and Principles of brachytherapy quality assurance

  10. Dose-volume histogram analysis as predictor of radiation pneumonitis in primary lung cancer patients treated with radiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fay, Michael; Tan, Alex; Fisher, Richard; Mac Manus, Michael; Wirth, Andrew; Ball, David

    2005-01-01

    Purpose: To determine the relationship between various parameters derived from lung dose-volume histogram analysis and the risk of symptomatic radiation pneumonitis (RP) in patients undergoing radical radiotherapy for primary lung cancer. Methods and Materials: The records of 156 patients with lung cancer who had been treated with radical radiotherapy (≥45 Gy) and for whom dose-volume histogram data were available were reviewed. The incidence of symptomatic RP was correlated with a variety of parameters derived from the dose-volume histogram data, including the volume of lung receiving 10 Gy (V 10 ) through 50 Gy (V 50 ) and the mean lung dose (MLD). Results: The rate of RP at 6 months was 15% (95% confidence interval 9-22%). On univariate analysis, only V 30 (p = 0.036) and MLD (p = 0.043) were statistically significantly related to RP. V 30 correlated highly positively with MLD (r = 0.96, p 30 and MLD can be used to predict the risk of RP in lung cancer patients undergoing radical radiotherapy

  11. Quantitative risk analysis preoperational of gas pipeline

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Manfredi, Carlos; Bispo, Gustavo G.; Esteves, Alvaro [Gie S.A., Buenos Aires (Argentina)

    2009-07-01

    The purpose of this analysis is to predict how it can be affected the individual risk and the public's general security due to the operation of a gas pipeline. In case that the single or social risks are considered intolerable, compared with the international standards, to be recommended measures of mitigation of the risk associated to the operation until levels that can be considered compatible with the best practices in the industry. The quantitative risk analysis calculates the probability of occurrence of an event based on the frequency of occurrence of the same one and it requires a complex mathematical treatment. The present work has as objective to develop a calculation methodology based on the previously mentioned publication. This calculation methodology is centered in defining the frequencies of occurrence of events, according to representative database of each case in study. Besides, it settles down the consequences particularly according to the considerations of each area and the different possibilities of interferences with the gas pipeline in study. For each one of the interferences a typical curve of ignition probabilities is developed in function from the distance to the pipe. (author)

  12. Involved Node, Site, Field and Residual Volume Radiotherapy for Lymphoma: A Comparison of Organ at Risk Dosimetry and Second Malignancy Risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, L; Sethugavalar, B; Robertshaw, H; Bayman, E; Thomas, E; Gilson, D; Prestwich, R J D

    2015-07-01

    Recent radiotherapy guidelines for lymphoma have included involved site radiotherapy (ISRT), involved node radiotherapy (INRT) and irradiation of residual volume after full-course chemotherapy. In the absence of late toxicity data, we aim to compare organ at risk (OAR) dose-metrics and calculated second malignancy risks. Fifteen consecutive patients who had received mediastinal radiotherapy were included. Four radiotherapy plans were generated for each patient using a parallel pair photon technique: (i) involved field radiotherapy (IFRT), (ii) ISRT, (iii) INRT, (iv) residual post-chemotherapy volume. The radiotherapy dose was 30 Gy in 15 fractions. The OARs evaluated were: breasts, lungs, thyroid, heart, oesophagus. Relative and absolute second malignancy rates were estimated using the concept of organ equivalent dose. Significance was defined as P risks of second cancers were significantly higher with IFRT compared with ISRT for lung, breast and thyroid; INRT and residual volume resulted in significantly lower relative risks compared with ISRT for lung, breast and thyroid. The median excess absolute risks of second cancers were consistently lowest for the residual technique and highest for IFRT in terms of thyroid, lung and breast cancers. The risk of oesophageal cancer was similar for all four techniques. Overall, the absolute risk of second cancers was very similar for ISRT and INRT. Decreasing treatment volumes from IFRT to ISRT, INRT or residual volume reduces radiation exposure to OARs. Second malignancy modelling suggests that this reduction in treatment volumes will lead to a reduction in absolute excess second malignancy. Little difference was observed in second malignancy risks between ISRT and INRT, supporting the use of ISRT in the absence of a pre-chemotherapy positron emission tomography scan in the radiotherapy treatment position. Copyright © 2015 The Royal College of Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Projection models for health-effects assessment in populations exposed to radioactive and nonradioactive pollutants. Volume I. Introduction to the SPAHR demographic model for health risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Collins, J.J.; Lundy, R.T.; Grahn, D.; Ginevan, M.E.

    1982-09-01

    The Simulation Package for the Analysis of Health Risk (SPAHR) is a computer software package based upon a demographic model for health risk projections. The model extends several health risk projection models by making realistic assumptions about the population at risk, and thus represents a distinct improvement over previous models. Complete documentation for use of SPAHR is contained in this five-volume publication. The demographic model in SPAHR estimates population response to environmental toxic exposures. Latency of response, changing dose level over time, competing risks from other causes of death, and population structure can be incorporated into SPAHR to project health risks. Risks are measured by morbid years, number of deaths, and loss of life expectancy. Comparisons of estimates of excess deaths demonstrate that previous health risk projection models may have underestimated excess deaths by a factor of from 2 to 10, depending on the pollutant and the exposure scenario. The software supporting the use of the demographic model is designed to be user oriented. Complex risk projections are made by responding to a series of prompts generated by the package. The flexibility and ease of use of SPAHR make it an important contribution to existing models and software packages. The first volume presents the theory behind the SPAHR health risk projection model and several applications of the model to actual pollution episodes. The elements required for an effective health risk projection model are specified, and the models that have been used to date in health risk projections are outlined. These are compared with the demographic model, whose formulation is described in detail. Examples of the application of air pollution and radiation dose-response functions are included in order to demonstrate the estimation of future mortality and morbidity levels and the range of variation in excess deaths that occurs when populations structure is changed

  14. Projection models for health-effects assessment in populations exposed to radioactive and nonradioactive pollutants. Volume I. Introduction to the SPAHR demographic model for health risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Collins, J.J.; Lundy, R.T.; Grahn, D.; Ginevan, M.E.

    1982-09-01

    The Simulation Package for the Analysis of Health Risk (SPAHR) is a computer software package based upon a demographic model for health risk projections. The model extends several health risk projection models by making realistic assumptions about the population at risk, and thus represents a distinct improvement over previous models. Complete documentation for use of SPAHR is contained in this five-volume publication. The demographic model in SPAHR estimates population response to environmental toxic exposures. Latency of response, changing dose level over time, competing risks from other causes of death, and population structure can be incorporated into SPAHR to project health risks. Risks are measured by morbid years, number of deaths, and loss of life expectancy. Comparisons of estimates of excess deaths demonstrate that previous health risk projection models may have underestimated excess deaths by a factor of from 2 to 10, depending on the pollutant and the exposure scenario. The software supporting the use of the demographic model is designed to be user oriented. Complex risk projections are made by responding to a series of prompts generated by the package. The flexibility and ease of use of SPAHR make it an important contribution to existing models and software packages. The first volume presents the theory behind the SPAHR health risk projection model and several applications of the model to actual pollution episodes. The elements required for an effective health risk projection model are specified, and the models that have been used to date in health risk projections are outlined. These are compared with the demographic model, whose formulation is described in detail. Examples of the application of air pollution and radiation dose-response functions are included in order to demonstrate the estimation of future mortality and morbidity levels and the range of variation in excess deaths that occurs when populations structure is changed.

  15. Risk analysis in oil spill response planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chernoplekov, A.N.; Alexandrov, A.A.

    2005-01-01

    Tiered response is a basic approach to emergency plans, including oil spill response (OSR). This paper delineates a huge set of accidental scenarios within a certain tier of response generated by a computer during risk assessment. Parameters such as the amount of oil spilled, duration of discharge and types of losses should be provided in OSR scenarios. Examples of applications include offshore installations, sub sea or onshore pipelines, and localized onshore facilities. The paper demonstrates how to use risk analysis results for delineating all likely spills into groups that need a specific tier response. The best world practices and Russian regulatory approaches were outlined and compared. Corresponding algorithms were developed and their application in pipelines was presented. The algorithm combines expert's skills and spill trajectory modeling with the net environmental benefit analysis principle into the incident specific emergency response planning. 9 refs., 13 tabs., 2 figs

  16. Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russell, K.D.; McKay, M.K.; Sattison, M.B.; Skinner, N.L.; Wood, S.T.; Rasmuson, D.M.

    1992-01-01

    The Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) is a state-of-the-art, microcomputer-based probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model development and analysis tool to address key nuclear plant safety issues. IRRAS is an integrated software tool that gives the user the ability to create and analyze fault trees and accident sequences using a microcomputer. This program provides functions that range from graphical fault tree construction to cut set generation and quantification. Version 1.0 of the IRRAS program was released in February of 1987. Since that time, many user comments and enhancements have been incorporated into the program providing a much more powerful and user-friendly system. This version has been designated IRRAS 4.0 and is the subject of this Reference Manual. Version 4.0 of IRRAS provides the same capabilities as Version 1.0 and adds a relational data base facility for managing the data, improved functionality, and improved algorithm performance

  17. Zero risk fuel fabrication: a systems analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1979-01-01

    Zero risk is a concept used to ensure that system requirements are developed through a systems approach such that the choice(s) among alternatives represents the balanced viewpoints of performance, achievability and risk. Requirements to ensure characteristics such as stringent accountability, low personnel exposure and etc. are needed to guide the development of component and subsystems for future LMFBR fuel supply systems. To establish a consistent and objective set of requirements, RF and M-TMC has initiated a systems requirements analysis activity. This activity pivots on judgement and experience provided by a Task Force representing industrial companies engaged in fuel fabrication in licensed facilities. The Task Force members are listed in Appendix A. Input developed by this group is presented as a starting point for the systems requirements analysis

  18. Risk Analysis of Accounting Information System Infrastructure

    OpenAIRE

    MIHALACHE, Arsenie-Samoil

    2011-01-01

    National economy and security are fully dependent on information technology and infrastructure. At the core of the information infrastructure society relies on, we have the Internet, a system designed initially as a scientists’ forum for unclassified research. The use of communication networks and systems may lead to hazardous situations that generate undesirable effects such as communication systems breakdown, loss of data or taking the wrong decisions. The paper studies the risk analysis of...

  19. Risk analysis of external radiation therapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arvidsson, Marcus

    2011-09-01

    External radiation therapy is carried out via a complex treatment process in which many different groups of staff work together. Much of the work is dependent on and in collaboration with advanced technical equipment. The purpose of the research task has been to identify a process for external radiation therapy and to identify, test and analyze a suitable method for performing risk analysis of external radiation therapy

  20. Risk and value analysis of SETI

    Science.gov (United States)

    Billingham, J.

    1990-01-01

    This paper attempts to apply a traditional risk and value analysis to the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence--SETI. In view of the difficulties of assessing the probability of success, a comparison is made between SETI and a previous search for extraterrestrial life, the biological component of Project Viking. Our application of simple Utility Theory, given some reasonable assumptions, suggests that SETI is at least as worthwhile as the biological experiment on Viking.

  1. Applied decision analysis and risk evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferse, W.; Kruber, S.

    1995-01-01

    During 1994 the workgroup 'Applied Decision Analysis and Risk Evaluation; continued the work on the knowledge based decision support system XUMA-GEFA for the evaluation of the hazard potential of contaminated sites. Additionally a new research direction was started which aims at the support of a later stage of the treatment of contaminated sites: The clean-up decision. For the support of decisions arising at this stage, the methods of decision analysis will be used. Computational aids for evaluation and decision support were implemented and a case study at a waste disposal site in Saxony which turns out to be a danger for the surrounding groundwater ressource was initiated. (orig.)

  2. Nuclear Dynamics Consequence Analysis (NDCA) for the Disposal of Spent Nuclear Fuel in an Underground Geologic Repository - Volume 3: Appendices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, L.L.; Wilson, J.R.; Sanchez, L.C.; Aguilar, R.; Trellue, H.R.; Cochrane, K.; Rath, J.S.

    1998-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy Office of Environmental Management's (DOE/EM's) National Spent Nuclear Fuel Program (NSNFP), through a collaboration between Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) and Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL), is conducting a systematic Nuclear Dynamics Consequence Analysis (NDCA) of the disposal of SNFs in an underground geologic repository sited in unsaturated tuff. This analysis is intended to provide interim guidance to the DOE for the management of the SNF while they prepare for final compliance evaluation. This report presents results from a Nuclear Dynamics Consequence Analysis (NDCA) that examined the potential consequences and risks of criticality during the long-term disposal of spent nuclear fuel owned by DOE-EM. This analysis investigated the potential of post-closure criticality, the consequences of a criticality excursion, and the probability frequency for post-closure criticality. The results of the NDCA are intended to provide the DOE-EM with a technical basis for measuring risk which can be used for screening arguments to eliminate post-closure criticality FEPs (features, events and processes) from consideration in the compliance assessment because of either low probability or low consequences. This report is composed of an executive summary (Volume 1), the methodology and results of the NDCA (Volume 2), and the applicable appendices (Volume 3)

  3. LANDSAFE: LANDING SITE RISK ANALYSIS SOFTWARE FRAMEWORK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Schmidt

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The European Space Agency (ESA is planning a Lunar Lander mission in the 2018 timeframe that will demonstrate precise soft landing at the polar regions of the Moon. To ensure a safe and successful landing a careful risk analysis has to be carried out. This is comprised of identifying favorable target areas and evaluating the surface conditions in these areas. Features like craters, boulders, steep slopes, rough surfaces and shadow areas have to be identified in order to assess the risk associated to a landing site in terms of a successful touchdown and subsequent surface operation of the lander. In addition, global illumination conditions at the landing site have to be simulated and analyzed. The Landing Site Risk Analysis software framework (LandSAfe is a system for the analysis, selection and certification of safe landing sites on the lunar surface. LandSAfe generates several data products including high resolution digital terrain models (DTMs, hazard maps, illumination maps, temperature maps and surface reflectance maps which assist the user in evaluating potential landing site candidates. This paper presents the LandSAfe system and describes the methods and products of the different modules. For one candidate landing site on the rim of Shackleton crater at the south pole of the Moon a high resolution DTM is showcased.

  4. ZNF804A risk allele is associated with relatively intact gray matter volume in patients with schizophrenia.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Donohoe, Gary

    2011-02-01

    ZNF804A rs1344706 is the first genetic risk variant to achieve genome wide significance for psychosis. Following earlier evidence that patients carrying the ZNF804A risk allele had relatively spared memory function compared to patient non-carriers, we investigated whether ZNF804A was also associated with variation in brain volume. In a sample of 70 patients and 38 healthy participants we used voxel based morphometry to compare homozygous (AA) carriers of the ZNF804A risk allele to heterozygous and homozygous (AC\\/CC) non-carriers for both whole brain volume and specific regions implicated in earlier ZNF804A studies-the dorsolateral pre-frontal cortex, the hippocampus, and the amygdala. For patients, but not for controls, we found that homozygous \\'AA\\' risk carriers had relatively larger gray matter volumes than heterozygous\\/homozygous non-carriers (AC\\/CC), particularly for hippocampal volumes. These data are consistent with our earlier behavioral data and suggest that ZNF804A is delineating a schizophrenia subtype characterized by relatively intact brain volume. Establishing if this represents a discrete molecular pathogenesis with consequences for nosology and treatment will be an important next step in understanding ZNF084A\\'s role in illness risk.

  5. Relationship between Plasma D-Dimer Concentration and Three-Dimensional Ultrasound Placental Volume in Women at Risk for Placental Vascular Diseases: A Monocentric Prospective Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cécile Fanget

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to correlate placental volumes deduced from three-dimensional ultrasound and virtual organ computer-aided analysis (VOCAL software with systemic concentrations of D-dimer and soluble endothelial protein C receptor (sEPCR.This was a monocentric experimental prospective study conducted from October 2008 to July 2009. Forty consecutive patients at risk of placental vascular pathology (PVP recurrence or occurrence were included. Placental volumes were systematically measured three times (11-14, 16-18 and 20-22 weeks of gestation (WG by two independent sonographers. D-dimers and sEPCR plasma concentrations were measured using ELISA kits (Enzyme Linked ImmunoSorbent Assay.Eleven patients had a PVP. The plasma D-dimer level was positively correlated with placental volume (r = 0.45, p < 0.001. A smaller placental volume and placental quotient was evidenced in women who developed a PVP at the three gestational ages, and the difference was more pronounced during the third exam (20 WG. No obvious correlation could be demonstrated between the development of a PVP and the levels of D-dimer and sEPCR. There was no significant difference in the values of placental volumes measured by the two sonographers.The placenta growth could be a major determinant of the elevation of D-dimer during pregnancy. Consideration of placental volume could allow for modulation of the D-dimer concentrations for restoring their clinical interest.

  6. University of all knowledge. Nature and risks. Volume 6; Universite de tous les savoirs. La nature et les risques. Volume 6

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Michaud, Y.

    2002-02-01

    This small book belongs to a collection of six volumes which synthesizes the content of a cycle of 366 conferences about sciences, techniques, intellectual productions, cultures etc, given each day of the year 2000 by specialists of the relevant domains. This 6. volume is devoted to todays and tomorrows stakes of nature: bio-diversity; co-evolution; molecular dialogue of symbioses; the vegetal chemical factory; the appropriation of the living matter: from biology to the social debate; the ethical stakes of genetics; todays feeding and risk perception; tomorrows feeding; safety of food products: prevention - surveillance - crisis; nature and agriculture; function and response of plant leaves to aggressions and herbicides; fishes and men (resources management); plants, molecules and drugs; the future of fossil fuels; the future of the environment; water pollution and cleansing; wastes: how the eliminate, re-valorize or avoid them; soils pollution; the ambiguousness of sustainable development policies; liability, risk and precaution. (J.S.)

  7. Space Propulsion Hazards Analysis Manual (SPHAM). Volume 2. Appendices

    Science.gov (United States)

    1988-10-01

    Vanderwall, E.M. and Schaplowsky, R.F., USAF PROPELLANT HA& nBOOKS , Volume III, Part B, "Nitrogen Trifluoride, Bibliography," p. 4-508, Aerojeft Liquid...not economically desirable to maintain two different avionic configurations in the space-based program. Guidance and navigation information is

  8. Geometrical considerations in dose volume analysis in intracavitary treatment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deshpande, D.D.; Shrivastava, S.K.; Pradhan, A.S.; Viswanathan, P.S.; Dinshaw, K.A.

    1996-01-01

    The present work was aimed at to study the relationship between the volume enclosed by reference iodose surface and various geometrical parameters of the intracavitary applicator in treatment of carcinoma of cervix. Pearshape volume of the reference isodose derived from the Total Reference Air Kerma (TRAK) and the product of its dimensions, height H, width W and thickness T which is dependent on the applicator geometry, were estimated for 100 intracavitary applications treated by Selectron LDR machine. Orthogonal radiographs taken for each patient were used for measurement of actual geometric dimensions of the applicator and carrying out the dosimetry on TP-11 treatment planning system. The dimensions H, W and T of reference isodose surface (60 Gy) were also noted. Ratio of the product HWT and the pearshape volume was found mainly to be a function of colpostat separation and not of other geometrical parameters like maximum vertical and anterio-posterior dimension of the applicator. The ratio remained almost constant for a particular combination of uterine tandem and colpostat. Variation in the ratios were attributed to the non-standard geometry. The ratio of the volume of reference isodose surface to the product of its dimensions in the applicator depends upon the colpostat separation. (orig./MG) [de

  9. Safety analysis and risk assessment handbook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, V.L.; Colwell, R.G.; Dickey, R.L.

    1997-01-01

    This Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) provides guidance to the safety analyst at the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site (RFETS) in the preparation of safety analyses and risk assessments. Although the older guidance (the Rocky Flats Risk Assessment Guide) continues to be used for updating the Final Safety Analysis Reports developed in the mid-1980s, this new guidance is used with all new authorization basis documents. With the mission change at RFETS came the need to establish new authorization basis documents for its facilities, whose functions had changed. The methodology and databases for performing the evaluations that support the new authorization basis documents had to be standardized, to avoid the use of different approaches and/or databases for similar accidents in different facilities. This handbook presents this new standardized approach. The handbook begins with a discussion of the requirements of the different types of authorization basis documents and how to choose the one appropriate for the facility to be evaluated. It then walks the analyst through the process of identifying all the potential hazards in the facility, classifying them, and choosing the ones that need to be analyzed further. It then discusses the methods for evaluating accident initiation and progression and covers the basic steps in a safety analysis, including consequence and frequency binning and risk ranking. The handbook lays out standardized approaches for determining the source terms of the various accidents (including airborne release fractions, leakpath factors, etc.), the atmospheric dispersion factors appropriate for Rocky Flats, and the methods for radiological and chemical consequence assessments. The radiological assessments use a radiological open-quotes templateclose quotes, a spreadsheet that incorporates the standard values of parameters, whereas the chemical assessments use the standard codes ARCHIE and ALOHA

  10. High production volume chemical Amine Oxide [C8-C20] category environmental risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sanderson, Hans; Tibazarwa, Caritas; Greggs, William

    2009-01-01

    and personal care products. Given the lack of persistence or bioaccumulation, and the low likelihood of these chemicals partitioning to soil, the focus of the environmental assessment is on the aquatic environment. In the United States, the E-FAST model is used to estimate effluent concentrations in the United......An environmental assessment of amine oxides has been conducted under the OECD SIDS High Production Volume (HPV) Program via the Global International Council of Chemical Associations (ICCA) Amine Oxides Consortium. Amine oxides are primarily used in conjunction with surfactants in cleaning...... States from manufacturing facilities and from municipal facilities resulting from consumer product uses. Reasonable worst-case ratios of predicted environmental concentration (PEC) to predicted no effect concentration (PNEC) range from 0.04 to 0.003, demonstrating that these chemicals are a low risk...

  11. A retrospective analysis of complications of large volume liposuction; local perspective from a third world country

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arshad, S.M.; Latif, S.; Altaf, H.N.

    2017-01-01

    This study was aimed at evaluating the complications that occurred in patients undergoing large volume liposuction and to see if there was a correlation between amount of aspirate and the rate of complications. Methodology: A detailed history, complete physical examination, BMI, and anthropometric measurements were documented for all patients. All patients under went liposuction using tumescent technique under general anesthesia in Yusra General Hospital. Patients were discharged home after 24 to 48 hours. Pressure garments were advised for 6 weeks and were called for weekly follow up for 6 weeks. Pressure garments were advised for 6 weeks. Complications were documented. SPSS version 20 was used for analysis of data. Results: Out of 217 patients, 163 (75%) were female and 54 male. Mean age was 37.1 SD+-6.7 years. Bruising and seroma were most common complications; 4.1% and 2.3%, respectively. The incidence of infection was 0.9%. One patient had over-correction and four patients (1.8%) had under-correction. Significant blood loss was encountered in one patient. Two patients (0.9%) had pulmonary embolism and 2(0.9%) suffered from necrotizing fasciitis. None of our patients undergoing large volume liposuction had fat embolism and there was no mortality. Conclusion: Careful patient selection and strict adherence to guidelines can ensure a good outcome and can minimize risk of complications. Both physicians and patients should be educated to have realistic expectations to avoid complications and improve patient safety. (author)

  12. Risk analysis of nuclear safeguards regulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al-Ayat, R.A.; Altman, W.D.; Judd, B.R.

    1982-06-01

    The Aggregated Systems Model (ASM), a probabilisitic risk analysis tool for nuclear safeguards, was applied to determine benefits and costs of proposed amendments to NRC regulations governing nuclear material control and accounting systems. The objective of the amendments was to improve the ability to detect insiders attempting to steal large quantities of special nuclear material (SNM). Insider threats range from likely events with minor consequences to unlikely events with catastrophic consequences. Moreover, establishing safeguards regulations is complicated by uncertainties in threats, safeguards performance, and consequences, and by the subjective judgments and difficult trade-offs between risks and safeguards costs. The ASM systematically incorporates these factors in a comprehensive, analytical framework. The ASM was used to evaluate the effectiveness of current safeguards and to quantify the risk of SNM theft. Various modifications designed to meet the objectives of the proposed amendments to reduce that risk were analyzed. Safeguards effectiveness was judged in terms of the probability of detecting and preventing theft, the expected time to detection, and the expected quantity of SNM diverted in a year. Data were gathered in tours and interviews at NRC-licensed facilities. The assessment at each facility was begun by carefully selecting scenarios representing the range of potential insider threats. A team of analysts and facility managers assigned probabilities for detection and prevention events in each scenario. Using the ASM we computed the measures of system effectiveness and identified cost-effective safeguards modifications that met the objectives of the proposed amendments

  13. AGROFOREST SYSTEM INVESTMENT ANALYSIS UNDER RISK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luiz Moreira Coelho Junior

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Agroforestry System is the ecological and economical interaction of the use of the land, with the combination ofagriculture, livestock and forest production, in temporary sequence and in a simultaneous way. The studies of investments in projectsassume the existence of risks and uncertainties. An alternative to reduce the risk in the forest investment is the association with theagricultural. This work analyzed the situations of risk of a system agroflorestal. Monte Carlo s method comes from the theory ofsimulations and stands out as a powerful and useful tool to provide a distribution of probabilities for the analysis of decision. A totalof 10,000 interactions of the Net Present Value (VPL, of Internal Rate of Return (TIR and of the Equivalent Periodic Benefit (BPEwere made in order to establish the probability distribution. The results presented 78.65% of chance of VPL being US$ 1,410.00;77.56% of chance of TIR being 36.36%, and; 75.39% of chance of BPE being US$ 309.70; the agroforestry system presented lowinvestment risk; and the livestock is the main product of the agrossilvopastoril system, followed by charcoal.

  14. Approach to uncertainty in risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rish, W.R.

    1988-08-01

    In the Fall of 1985 EPA's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) initiated a project to develop a formal approach to dealing with uncertainties encountered when estimating and evaluating risks to human health and the environment. Based on a literature review of modeling uncertainty, interviews with ORP technical and management staff, and input from experts on uncertainty analysis, a comprehensive approach was developed. This approach recognizes by design the constraints on budget, time, manpower, expertise, and availability of information often encountered in ''real world'' modeling. It is based on the observation that in practice risk modeling is usually done to support a decision process. As such, the approach focuses on how to frame a given risk modeling problem, how to use that framing to select an appropriate mixture of uncertainty analyses techniques, and how to integrate the techniques into an uncertainty assessment that effectively communicates important information and insight to decision-makers. The approach is presented in this report. Practical guidance on characterizing and analyzing uncertainties about model form and quantities and on effectively communicating uncertainty analysis results is included. Examples from actual applications are presented.

  15. Approach to uncertainty in risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rish, W.R.

    1988-08-01

    In the Fall of 1985 EPA's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) initiated a project to develop a formal approach to dealing with uncertainties encountered when estimating and evaluating risks to human health and the environment. Based on a literature review of modeling uncertainty, interviews with ORP technical and management staff, and input from experts on uncertainty analysis, a comprehensive approach was developed. This approach recognizes by design the constraints on budget, time, manpower, expertise, and availability of information often encountered in ''real world'' modeling. It is based on the observation that in practice risk modeling is usually done to support a decision process. As such, the approach focuses on how to frame a given risk modeling problem, how to use that framing to select an appropriate mixture of uncertainty analyses techniques, and how to integrate the techniques into an uncertainty assessment that effectively communicates important information and insight to decision-makers. The approach is presented in this report. Practical guidance on characterizing and analyzing uncertainties about model form and quantities and on effectively communicating uncertainty analysis results is included. Examples from actual applications are presented

  16. System Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krantz, E.A.; Russell, K.D.; Stewart, H.D.; Van Siclen, V.S.

    1986-01-01

    Utilization of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) related information in the day-to-day operation of plant systems has, in the past, been impracticable due to the size of the computers needed to run PRA codes. This paper discusses a microcomputer-based database system which can greatly enhance the capability of operators or regulators to incorporate PRA methodologies into their routine decision making. This system is called the System Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) system. SARA was developed by EG and G Idaho, Inc. at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory to facilitate the study of frequency and consequence analyses of accident sequences from a large number of light water reactors (LWRs) in this country. This information is being amassed by several studies sponsored by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC). To meet the need of portability and accessibility, and to perform the variety of calculations necessary, it was felt that a microcomputer-based system would be most suitable

  17. Methodologies for risk analysis in slope instability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernabeu Garcia, M.; Diaz Torres, J. A.

    2014-01-01

    This paper is an approach to the different methodologies used in conducting landslide risk maps so that the reader can get a basic knowledge about how to proceed in its development. The landslide hazard maps are increasingly demanded by governments. This is because due to climate change, deforestation and the pressure exerted by the growth of urban centers, damage caused by natural phenomena is increasing each year, making this area of work a field of study with increasing importance. To explain the process of mapping a journey through each of the phases of which it is composed is made: from the study of the types of slope movements and the necessary management of geographic information systems (GIS) inventories and landslide susceptibility analysis, threat, vulnerability and risk. (Author)

  18. Southern forest inventory and analysis volume equation user’s guide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christopher M. Oswalt; Roger C. Conner

    2011-01-01

    Reliable volume estimation procedures are fundamental to the mission of the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program. Moreover, public access to FIA program procedures is imperative. Here we present the volume estimation procedures used by the southern FIA program of the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service Southern Research Station. The guide presented...

  19. Lower vs. higher fluid volumes in sepsis-protocol for a systematic review with meta-analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meyhoff, T S; Møller, M H; Hjortrup, P B

    2017-01-01

    sequential analysis of randomised clinical trials comparing different strategies to obtain separation in fluid volumes or balances during resuscitation of adult patients with sepsis. We will systematically search the Cochrane Library, MEDLINE, EMBASE, Science Citation Index, BIOSIS and Epistemonikos...... for relevant literature. We will follow the recommendations by the Cochrane Collaboration and the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) statement. The risk of systematic errors (bias) and random errors will be assessed, and the overall quality of evidence will be evaluated...

  20. Analysis of airborne radiometric data. Volume 3. Topical reports

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reed, J.H.; Shreve, D.C.; Sperling, M.; Woolson, W.A.

    1978-05-01

    This volume consists of four topical reports: a general discussion of the philosophy of unfolding spectra with continuum and discrete components, a mathematical treatment of the effects of various physical parameters on the uncollided gamma-ray spectrum at aircraft elevations, a discussion of the application of the unfolding code MAZNAI to airborne data, and a discussion of the effects of the nonlinear relationship between energy deposited and pulse height in NaI(T1) detectors

  1. Model risk analysis for risk management and option pricing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kerkhof, F.L.J.

    2003-01-01

    Due to the growing complexity of products in financial markets, market participants rely more and more on quantitative models for trading and risk management decisions. This introduces a fairly new type of risk, namely, model risk. In the first part of this thesis we investigate the quantitative

  2. Predicted stand volume for Eucalyptus plantations by spatial analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Latifah, Siti; Teodoro, RV; Myrna, GC; Nathaniel, CB; Leonardo, M. F.

    2018-03-01

    The main objective of the present study was to assess nonlinear models generated by integrating the stand volume growth rate to estimate the growth and yield of Eucalyptus. The primary data was done for point of interest (POI) of permanent sample plots (PSPs) and inventory sample plots, in Aek Nauli sector, Simalungun regency,North Sumatera Province,Indonesia. from December 2008- March 2009. Today,the demand for forestry information has continued to grow over recent years. Because many forest managers and decision makers face complex decisions, reliable information has become the necessity. In the assessment of natural resources including plantation forests have been widely used geospatial technology.The yield of Eucalyptus plantations represented by merchantable volume as dependent variable while factors affecting yield namely stands variables and the geographic variables as independent variables. The majority of the areas in the study site has stand volume class 0 - 50 m3/ha with 16.59 ha or 65.85 % of the total study site.

  3. Nuclear risk analysis of the Ulysses mission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bartram, B.W.; Vaughan, F.R.; Englehart, D.R.W.

    1991-01-01

    The use of a radioisotope thermoelectric generator fueled with plutonium-238 dioxide on the Space Shuttle-launched Ulysses mission implies some level of risk due to potential accidents. This paper describes the method used to quantify risks in the Ulysses mission Final Safety Analysis Report prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy. The starting point for the analysis described herein is following input of source term probability distributions from the General Electric Company. A Monte Carlo technique is used to develop probability distributions of radiological consequences for a range of accident scenarios thoughout the mission. Factors affecting radiological consequences are identified, the probability distribution of the effect of each factor determined, and the functional relationship among all the factors established. The probability distributions of all the factor effects are then combined using a Monte Carlo technique. The results of the analysis are presented in terms of complementary cumulative distribution functions (CCDF) by mission sub-phase, phase, and the overall mission. The CCDFs show the total probability that consequences (calculated health effects) would be equal to or greater than a given value

  4. Water volume reduction increases eutrophication risk in tropical semi-arid reservoirs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Alberto Nascimento da Rocha Junior

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Aim Global patterns of temperature and precipitation have significantly changed over the last century and nearly all predictions point to even greater changes by the end of 2100. Long periods of drought in semi-arid regions generally reduce reservoirs and lakes water level, increasing the nutrients concentrations in the water. Our principal hypothesis is that water volume reduction, driven by prolonged droughts, will increase reservoirs susceptibility to eutrophication and accordingly an increase in trophic state. To test this hypothesis, we used a comparative analysis of ecosystems in a space-for-time substitution approach, in a Brazilian semi-arid region, to predict the consequences of reservoirs water volume reduction on key limnological variables. Methods We sampled 16 reservoirs located in two sub-basins with contrasting rainfall regimes, inserted on Piranhas-Açu watershed. The Seridó River basin (SB is dry and the Piancó River basin (SB is humid, with annual mean precipitation of 500 and 700 mm, respectively. Linear regressions analyzes were performed to assess whether the percentage of maximum volume stored (%MVS is a good predictor for total phosphorus (TP, total nitrogen (TN and chlorophyll-a (CHLA. In addition, a two factorial analysis of variance (two-way ANOVA was performed to test for period (dry, very dry and extremely dry, basin (SB and PB and their interactions effects on TP, TN, CHLA, conductivity, turbidity, and Secchi depth. Results The results showed a reduction in the reservoirs %MVS both for PB and SB regions. At the extremely dry period, all reservoirs were classified as eutrophic, but TP concentrations reached much higher values in SB than in PB. The linear regressions analyses showed that the TP and TN were negatively related to %MVS during all periods sampled. The two-way ANOVA showed that there were significant basin and period effects on TP, TN, Secchi depth and turbidity, whereas for CHLA and conductivity

  5. Risk management and analysis: risk assessment (qualitative and quantitative)

    OpenAIRE

    Valentin Mazareanu

    2007-01-01

    We use to define risk as the possibility of suffering a loss. Starting this, risk management is defined as a business process whose purpose is to ensure that the organization is protected against risks and their effects. In order to prioritize, to develop a response plan and after that to monitor the identified risks we need to asses them. But at this point a question is born: should I choose a qualitative approach or a quantitative one? This paper will make a short overview over the risk eva...

  6. Major risk from rapid, large-volume landslides in Europe (EU Project RUNOUT)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kilburn, Christopher R. J.; Pasuto, Alessandro

    2003-08-01

    Project RUNOUT has investigated methods for reducing the risk from large-volume landslides in Europe, especially those involving rapid rates of emplacement. Using field data from five test sites (Bad Goisern and Köfels in Austria, Tessina and Vajont in Italy, and the Barranco de Tirajana in Gran Canaria, Spain), the studies have developed (1) techniques for applying geomorphological investigations and optical remote sensing to map landslides and their evolution; (2) analytical, numerical, and cellular automata models for the emplacement of sturzstroms and debris flows; (3) a brittle-failure model for forecasting catastrophic slope failure; (4) new strategies for integrating large-area Global Positioning System (GPS) arrays with local geodetic monitoring networks; (5) methods for raising public awareness of landslide hazards; and (6) Geographic Information System (GIS)-based databases for the test areas. The results highlight the importance of multidisciplinary studies of landslide hazards, combining subjects as diverse as geology and geomorphology, remote sensing, geodesy, fluid dynamics, and social profiling. They have also identified key goals for an improved understanding of the physical processes that govern landslide collapse and runout, as well as for designing strategies for raising public awareness of landslide hazards and for implementing appropriate land management policies for reducing landslide risk.

  7. RISK ANALYSIS APPLIED IN OIL EXPLORATION AND PRODUCTION

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ES Obe

    aDepartment of Civil Engineering, University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Enugu State, Nigeria. ... The analysis in this work is ... risk analysis, oil field, risk management, projects, investment opportunity. 1. .... own merit but since the company has limited.

  8. Segmentation of organs at risk in CT volumes of head, thorax, abdomen, and pelvis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Miaofei; Ma, Jinfeng; Li, Yan; Li, Meiling; Song, Yanli; Li, Qiang

    2015-03-01

    Accurate segmentation of organs at risk (OARs) is a key step in treatment planning system (TPS) of image guided radiation therapy. We are developing three classes of methods to segment 17 organs at risk throughout the whole body, including brain, brain stem, eyes, mandible, temporomandibular joints, parotid glands, spinal cord, lungs, trachea, heart, livers, kidneys, spleen, prostate, rectum, femoral heads, and skin. The three classes of segmentation methods include (1) threshold-based methods for organs of large contrast with adjacent structures such as lungs, trachea, and skin; (2) context-driven Generalized Hough Transform-based methods combined with graph cut algorithm for robust localization and segmentation of liver, kidneys and spleen; and (3) atlas and registration-based methods for segmentation of heart and all organs in CT volumes of head and pelvis. The segmentation accuracy for the seventeen organs was subjectively evaluated by two medical experts in three levels of score: 0, poor (unusable in clinical practice); 1, acceptable (minor revision needed); and 2, good (nearly no revision needed). A database was collected from Ruijin Hospital, Huashan Hospital, and Xuhui Central Hospital in Shanghai, China, including 127 head scans, 203 thoracic scans, 154 abdominal scans, and 73 pelvic scans. The percentages of "good" segmentation results were 97.6%, 92.9%, 81.1%, 87.4%, 85.0%, 78.7%, 94.1%, 91.1%, 81.3%, 86.7%, 82.5%, 86.4%, 79.9%, 72.6%, 68.5%, 93.2%, 96.9% for brain, brain stem, eyes, mandible, temporomandibular joints, parotid glands, spinal cord, lungs, trachea, heart, livers, kidneys, spleen, prostate, rectum, femoral heads, and skin, respectively. Various organs at risk can be reliably segmented from CT scans by use of the three classes of segmentation methods.

  9. Analysis and risk management after Fukushima

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nelson, P. F.

    2011-11-01

    This article describes the impact in the nuclear industry after the only accidents with affectation to the public: the Three Mile Island and Chernobyl. and discusses what comes after Fukushima with regard to the Safety Probabilistic Analysis (Spa) and their use in the decisions taking. A reference to the standard ASME/ANS of Spa is made and the possible changes due to the learned lessons after the Fukushima accident. The main changes are described in the art state and the priorities of the Spa studies. These include the change in the mission time of the emergency systems, the necessity to model the alternating systems, the risk consideration of a site with multi-units, the importance of making a Spa level 3 and the Spa of external events. The Spa is the key tool of the discipline of risk management, but given the learned lessons, is more necessary in all the aspects of the operation and surveillance of a nuclear power plant. A strategy is presented to improve the response to a severe accident, that includes consider the risks of the specific nuclear power plant. (Author)

  10. A finite volume procedure for fluid flow, heat transfer and solid-body stress analysis

    KAUST Repository

    Jagad, P. I.; Puranik, B. P.; Date, A. W.

    2018-01-01

    A unified cell-centered unstructured mesh finite volume procedure is presented for fluid flow, heat transfer and solid-body stress analysis. An in-house procedure (A. W. Date, Solution of Transport Equations on Unstructured Meshes with Cell

  11. Synfuel program analysis. Volume 2: VENVAL users manual

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muddiman, J. B.; Whelan, J. W.

    1980-07-01

    This volume is intended for program analysts and is a users manual for the VENVAL model. It contains specific explanations as to input data requirements and programming procedures for the use of this model. VENVAL is a generalized computer program to aid in evaluation of prospective private sector production ventures. The program can project interrelated values of installed capacity, production, sales revenue, operating costs, depreciation, investment, dent, earnings, taxes, return on investment, depletion, and cash flow measures. It can also compute related public sector and other external costs and revenues if unit costs are furnished.

  12. Regional frontal gray matter volume associated with executive function capacity as a risk factor for vehicle crashes in normal aging adults.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hiroyuki Sakai

    Full Text Available Although low executive functioning is a risk factor for vehicle crashes among elderly drivers, the neural basis of individual differences in this cognitive ability remains largely unknown. Here we aimed to examine regional frontal gray matter volume associated with executive functioning in normal aging individuals, using voxel-based morphometry (VBM. To this end, 39 community-dwelling elderly volunteers who drove a car on a daily basis participated in structural magnetic resonance imaging, and completed two questionnaires concerning executive functioning and risky driving tendencies in daily living. Consequently, we found that participants with low executive function capacity were prone to risky driving. Furthermore, VBM analysis revealed that lower executive function capacity was associated with smaller gray matter volume in the supplementary motor area (SMA. Thus, the current data suggest that SMA volume is a reliable predictor of individual differences in executive function capacity as a risk factor for vehicle crashes among elderly persons. The implication of our results is that regional frontal gray matter volume might underlie the variation in driving tendencies among elderly drivers. Therefore, detailed driving behavior assessments might be able to detect early neurodegenerative changes in the frontal lobe in normal aging adults.

  13. Patient-stated preferences regarding volume-related risk mitigation strategies for hemodialysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flythe, Jennifer E; Mangione, Thomas W; Brunelli, Steven M; Curhan, Gary C

    2014-08-07

    Larger weight gain and higher ultrafiltration rates have been associated with poorer outcomes among patients on dialysis. Dietary restrictions reduce fluid-related risk; however, adherence is challenging. Alternative fluid mitigation strategies include treatment time extension, more frequent dialysis, adjunct peritoneal dialysis, and wearable ultrafiltration devices. No data regarding patient preferences for fluid management exist. A survey was designed, tested, and administered to assess patient-stated preferences regarding fluid mitigation. A written survey concerning fluid-related symptoms, patient and treatment characteristics, and fluid management preferences was developed. The cross-sectional survey was completed by 600 patients on hemodialysis at 18 geographically diverse ambulatory facilities. Comparisons of patient willingness to engage in volume mitigation strategies across fluid symptom burden, dietary restriction experience, and patient characteristics were performed. Final analyses included 588 surveys. Overall, if allowed to liberalize fluid intake, 44.6% of patients were willing to extend treatment time by 15 minutes. Willingness to extend treatment time was incrementally less for longer treatment extensions; 12.2% of patients were willing to add a fourth weekly treatment session, and 13.5% of patients were willing to participate in nocturnal dialysis three nights per week. Patients more bothered by their fluid restrictions (versus less bothered) were more willing to engage in fluid mitigation strategies. Demographic characteristics and symptoms, such as cramping and dyspnea, were not consistently associated with willingness to engage in the proposed strategies. More than 25% of patients were unsure of their dry weights and typical interdialytic weight gains. Patients were generally averse to treatment time extension>15 minutes. Patients more bothered (versus less bothered) by their prescribed fluid restrictions were more willing to engage in volume

  14. Auto-segmentation of low-risk clinical target volume for head and neck radiation therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Jinzhong; Beadle, Beth M; Garden, Adam S; Gunn, Brandon; Rosenthal, David; Ang, Kian; Frank, Steven; Williamson, Ryan; Balter, Peter; Court, Laurence; Dong, Lei

    2014-01-01

    To investigate atlas-based auto-segmentation methods to improve the quality of the delineation of low-risk clinical target volumes (CTVs) of unilateral tonsil cancers. Sixteen patients received intensity modulated radiation therapy for left tonsil tumors. These patients were treated by a total of 8 oncologists, who delineated all contours manually on the planning CT image. We chose 6 of the patients as atlas cases and used atlas-based auto-segmentation to map each the atlas CTV to the other 10 patients (test patients). For each test patient, the final contour was produced by combining the 6 individual segmentations from the atlases using the simultaneous truth and performance level estimation algorithm. In addition, for each test patient, we identified a single atlas that produced deformed contours best matching the physician's manual contours. The auto-segmented contours were compared with the physician's manual contours using the slice-wise Hausdorff distance (HD), the slice-wise Dice similarity coefficient (DSC), and a total volume overlap index. No single atlas consistently produced good results for all 10 test cases. The multiatlas segmentation achieved a good agreement between auto-segmented contours and manual contours, with a median slice-wise HD of 7.4 ± 1.0 mm, median slice-wise DSC of 80.2% ± 5.9%, and total volume overlap of 77.8% ± 3.3% over the 10 test cases. For radiation oncologists who contoured both the test case and one of the atlas cases, the best atlas for a test case had almost always been contoured by the oncologist who had contoured that test case, indicating that individual physician's practice dominated in target delineation and was an important factor in optimal atlas selection. Multiatlas segmentation may improve the quality of CTV delineation in clinical practice for unilateral tonsil cancers. We also showed that individual physician's practice was an important factor in selecting the optimal atlas for atlas-based auto

  15. Testing the new ICRU 62 'Planning Organ at Risk Volume' concept for the rectum

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Muren, Ludvig Paul; Karlsdottir, Asa; Kvinnsland, Yngve; Wentzel-Larsen, Tore; Dahl, Olav

    2005-01-01

    Background and purpose: To study the impact of the new ICRU 62 'Planning organ at Risk Volume' (PRV) concept on the relationship between rectum dose-volume histogram (DVH) data and toxicity. Patients and methods: The acute gastro-intestinal (GI) RTOG toxicity in 127 prostate cancer patients prescribed a total dose of 70 Gy with conformal irradiation to either the prostate, the prostate and seminal vesicles or the whole pelvis (initial 50 Gy only) were analysed. DVHs were derived for the rectum only and for rectum extended with six PRV margin sets (narrow/intermediate/wide; anterior/anterior and posterior). The data was analysed using permutation tests, logistic regression and effective uniform dose (EUD) calculations. Results: Acute Grade 2 GI toxicity was seen in 22 of 127 cases (17%). Permutation tests showed that the difference between DVHs for patients with and without Grade 2 effects was significant, both for rectum only and rectum PRVs (P-value range: 0.02-0.04), with generally lower P-values for the PRVs. In the logistic regression, the fractional DVH variables (i.e. volumes) were significantly related to toxicity, with approximately 2-3 times as many significant dose levels for the PRVs as for rectum only. E.g. with wide anterior and posterior margins (16 and 11 mm, respectively) the relation was significant at 26 different dose levels (6-7, 13-14, 35-43, 60-71 and 73 Gy), compared to nine levels (38-40, 43-44 and 71-74 Gy) for rectum only. EUDs were significantly different for patients with and without Grade 2 effects both for rectum only and the PRVs (95% confidence interval for EUD increase with Grade 2 effects: 0.1-3.1 Gy). Conclusions: All statistical methods applied indicated a small, but definite difference in DVH parameters between patients with versus those without Grade 2 effects. The difference was most pronounced when margins of 16 mm anterior and 11 mm posterior were applied

  16. Probabilistic methods in fire-risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brandyberry, M.D.

    1989-01-01

    The first part of this work outlines a method for assessing the frequency of ignition of a consumer product in a building and shows how the method would be used in an example scenario utilizing upholstered furniture as the product and radiant auxiliary heating devices (electric heaters, wood stoves) as the ignition source. Deterministic thermal models of the heat-transport processes are coupled with parameter uncertainty analysis of the models and with a probabilistic analysis of the events involved in a typical scenario. This leads to a distribution for the frequency of ignition for the product. In second part, fire-risk analysis as currently used in nuclear plants is outlines along with a discussion of the relevant uncertainties. The use of the computer code COMPBRN is discussed for use in the fire-growth analysis along with the use of response-surface methodology to quantify uncertainties in the code's use. Generalized response surfaces are developed for temperature versus time for a cable tray, as well as a surface for the hot gas layer temperature and depth for a room of arbitrary geometry within a typical nuclear power plant compartment. These surfaces are then used to simulate the cable tray damage time in a compartment fire experiment

  17. Global grey matter volume in adult bipolar patients with and without lithium treatment: A meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Yue Ran; Herrmann, Nathan; Scott, Christopher J M; Black, Sandra E; Khan, Maisha M; Lanctôt, Krista L

    2018-01-01

    The goal of this meta-analysis was to quantitatively summarize the evidence available on the differences in grey matter volume between lithium-treated and lithium-free bipolar patients. A systematic search was conducted in Cochrane Central, Embase, MEDLINE, and PsycINFO databases for original peer-reviewed journal articles that reported on global grey matter volume in lithium-medicated and lithium-free bipolar patients. Standard mean difference and Hedges' g were used to calculate effect size in a random-effects model. Risk of publication bias was assessed using Egger's test and quality of evidence was assessed using standard criteria. There were 15 studies with a total of 854 patients (368 lithium-medicated, 486 lithium-free) included in the meta-analysis. Global grey matter volume was significantly larger in lithium-treated bipolar patients compared to lithium-free patients (SMD: 0.17, 95% CI: 0.01-0.33; z = 2.11, p = 0.035). Additionally, there was a difference in global grey matter volume between groups in studies that employed semi-automated segmentation methods (SMD: 0.66, 95% CI: 0.01-1.31; z = 1.99, p = 0.047), but no significant difference in studies that used fully-automated segmentation. No publication bias was detected (bias coefficient = - 0.65, p = 0.46). Variability in imaging methods and lack of high-quality evidence limits the interpretation of the findings. Results suggest that lithium-treated patients have a greater global grey matter volume than those who were lithium-free. Further study of the relationship between lithium and grey matter volume may elucidate the therapeutic potential of lithium in conditions characterized by abnormal changes in brain structure. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Risk as analysis and risk as feelings: some thoughts about affect, reason, risk, and rationality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slovic, Paul; Finucane, Melissa L; Peters, Ellen; MacGregor, Donald G

    2004-04-01

    Modern theories in cognitive psychology and neuroscience indicate that there are two fundamental ways in which human beings comprehend risk. The "analytic system" uses algorithms and normative rules, such as probability calculus, formal logic, and risk assessment. It is relatively slow, effortful, and requires conscious control. The "experiential system" is intuitive, fast, mostly automatic, and not very accessible to conscious awareness. The experiential system enabled human beings to survive during their long period of evolution and remains today the most natural and most common way to respond to risk. It relies on images and associations, linked by experience to emotion and affect (a feeling that something is good or bad). This system represents risk as a feeling that tells us whether it is safe to walk down this dark street or drink this strange-smelling water. Proponents of formal risk analysis tend to view affective responses to risk as irrational. Current wisdom disputes this view. The rational and the experiential systems operate in parallel and each seems to depend on the other for guidance. Studies have demonstrated that analytic reasoning cannot be effective unless it is guided by emotion and affect. Rational decision making requires proper integration of both modes of thought. Both systems have their advantages, biases, and limitations. Now that we are beginning to understand the complex interplay between emotion and reason that is essential to rational behavior, the challenge before us is to think creatively about what this means for managing risk. On the one hand, how do we apply reason to temper the strong emotions engendered by some risk events? On the other hand, how do we infuse needed "doses of feeling" into circumstances where lack of experience may otherwise leave us too "coldly rational"? This article addresses these important questions.

  19. The effects of contrast media volume on acute kidney injury after transcatheter aortic valve replacement: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thongprayoon, Charat; Cheungpasitporn, Wisit; Podboy, Alexander J; Gillaspie, Erin A; Greason, Kevin L; Kashani, Kianoush B

    2016-11-01

    The goal of this systematic review was to assess the effects of contrast media volume on transcatheter aortic valve replacement-related acute kidney injury. A literature search was performed using Medline, EMbase, the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and clinicaltrials.gov from the inception of these databases through December 2015. Studies that reported relative risk, odds ratio, or hazard ratio comparing the risks of acute kidney injury following transcatheter aortic valve replacement in patients who received high contrast media volume were included. Pooled risk ratio (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated using a random-effect, generic inverse variance method. Four cohort studies composed of 891 patients were included in the analyses to assess the risk of acute kidney injury after transcatheter aortic valve replacement in patients who received high contrast media volume. The pooled RR of acute kidney injury after transcatheter aortic valve replacement in patients who received a large volume of contrast media was 1.41 (95% CI, 0.87 to 2.28) compared with low contrast media volume. The meta-analysis was limited to studies using standard acute kidney injury definitions, and the pooled RR of acute kidney injury in patients who received high contrast media volume is 1.12 (95% CI, 0.78 to 1.62). Our meta-analysis shows no significant association between contrast media volume and risk of acute kidney injury after transcatheter aortic valve replacement. © 2016 Chinese Cochrane Center, West China Hospital of Sichuan University and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

  20. Unnoticed Post-Void Residual Urine Volume in People with Moderate to Severe Intellectual Disabilities: Prevalence and Risk Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Waal, K. H.; Tinselboer, B. M.; Evenhuis, H. M.; Penning, C.

    2009-01-01

    Background: Increased post-void residual urine volume (PVR) is often seen in geriatric populations. People with intellectual disabilities (ID) have risk factors in common with these populations. Aims: To investigate in adults with ID: (1) Feasibility of portable ultrasound bladder scanning; (2) Prevalence of PVR; and (3) Relations with proposed…

  1. Volume of hospital is important for the prognosis of high-risk patients with nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (NVUGIB).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Jin Woo; Jeon, Seong Woo; Kwon, Jung Gu; Lee, Dong Wook; Ha, Chang Yoon; Cho, Kwang Bum; Jang, Byung Ik; Park, Jung Bae; Park, Youn Sun

    2017-08-01

    Nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (NVUGIB) is a potentially life-threatening hospital emergency requiring hemodynamic stabilization and resuscitation. This study is carried out to determine whether hospital volume can influence outcome in patients with NVUGIB. This is a retrospective study with a prospective cohort database (KCT 0000514. cris.nih.go.kr). Eight teaching hospitals were divided into two different groups: high-volume centers (HVC, ≥60 NVUGIB patients/year, four clinics) and low-volume centers (LVC, bleeding after treatment, re-bleeding, necessity for surgical/other retreatments, and death within 30 days. Similar baseline characters for patients were observed in both groups. There was a significant difference in the incidence of poor outcome between the HVC and LVC groups (9.06 vs. 13.69%, P = 0.014). The incidence rate of poor outcome in high-risk patients (Rockall score ≥8) in HVC was lower than that in high-risk patients in LVC (16.07 vs. 26.92%, P = 0.048); however, there was no significant difference in poor outcome in the lower-risk patients in either group (8.72 vs. 10.42%, P = 0.370). Significant correlation between hospital volume and outcome in NVUGIB patients was observed. Referral to HVC for the management of high-risk NVUGIB patients should be considered in clinical practice.

  2. Do insurers respond to risk adjustment? A long-term, nationwide analysis from Switzerland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Wyl, Viktor; Beck, Konstantin

    2016-03-01

    Community rating in social health insurance calls for risk adjustment in order to eliminate incentives for risk selection. Swiss risk adjustment is known to be insufficient, and substantial risk selection incentives remain. This study develops five indicators to monitor residual risk selection. Three indicators target activities of conglomerates of insurers (with the same ownership), which steer enrollees into specific carriers based on applicants' risk profiles. As a proxy for their market power, those indicators estimate the amount of premium-, health care cost-, and risk-adjustment transfer variability that is attributable to conglomerates. Two additional indicators, derived from linear regression, describe the amount of residual cost differences between insurers that are not covered by risk adjustment. All indicators measuring conglomerate-based risk selection activities showed increases between 1996 and 2009, paralleling the establishment of new conglomerates. At their maxima in 2009, the indicator values imply that 56% of the net risk adjustment volume, 34% of premium variability, and 51% cost variability in the market were attributable to conglomerates. From 2010 onwards, all indicators decreased, coinciding with a pre-announced risk adjustment reform implemented in 2012. Likewise, the regression-based indicators suggest that the volume and variance of residual cost differences between insurers that are not equaled out by risk adjustment have decreased markedly since 2009 as a result of the latest reform. Our analysis demonstrates that risk-selection, especially by conglomerates, is a real phenomenon in Switzerland. However, insurers seem to have reduced risk selection activities to optimize their losses and gains from the latest risk adjustment reform.

  3. Overcoming barriers to integrating economic analysis into risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffmann, Sandra

    2011-09-01

    Regulatory risk analysis is designed to provide decisionmakers with a clearer understanding of how policies are likely to affect risk. The systems that produce risk are biological, physical, and social and economic. As a result, risk analysis is an inherently interdisciplinary task. Yet in practice, risk analysis has been interdisciplinary in only limited ways. Risk analysis could provide more accurate assessments of risk if there were better integration of economics and other social sciences into risk assessment itself. This essay examines how discussions about risk analysis policy have influenced the roles of various disciplines in risk analysis. It explores ways in which integrated bio/physical-economic modeling could contribute to more accurate assessments of risk. It reviews examples of the kind of integrated economics-bio/physical modeling that could be used to enhance risk assessment. The essay ends with a discussion of institutional barriers to greater integration of economic modeling into risk assessment and provides suggestions on how these might be overcome. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  4. Economic analysis and management of climatic risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hourcade, J.C. (Centre International de Recherche sur l' Environnement et le Developpement, 92 - Montrouge (France))

    1994-01-01

    This paper aims at framing the collective decision problem in the face of climate change. It shows why it would be irrelevant to handle it in the form of a classical decision under uncertainty framework where a cost-benefit analysis is carried out including probability distribution on damages and risk aversion coefficients. A sequential approach to policy making is then proposed as an alternative in order to account for the inertia of socio-economic dynamics and the value of information. A simple model illustrates the gap between these two approaches; it shows the importance of combining the investments on climatic research, innovation policies and so-called 'no regret' short term decisions. It shows the fact that, even if they can be considered as quantitatively moderate, these potentials have a critical impact on long term viability of development; they embed a very high information value, lengthening the learning time vis-a-vis potentially major but controversial risks. (author). 21 refs., 3 figs.

  5. Risk oriented analysis of the SNR-300

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koeberlein, K.

    1982-01-01

    The Fact Finding Committee on 'Future Nuclear Power Policy' established by the 8th German Federal Parliament in its report of June 1980 among other items published the recommendation to commission a 'risk oriented analysis' of the SNR-300 in order to enable a pragmatic comparison to be made of the safety of the German prototype fast breeder reactor and a modern light water reactor (a Biblis B PWR). The Federal Minister for Research and Technology in August 1981 officially commissioned the Gesellschaft fuer Reaktorsicherheit (GRS) to conduct the study. Following a recommendation by the Fact Finding Committee, additional studies were performed also by a group of opponents of the breeder reactor. On the instigation of the group of opponents the delivery date of the study was altered several times and finally set at April 30, 1982. GRS submitted its report by this deadline. However, a joint report by the two groups could not be compiled, as had been requested by the client, because the contributions of the opponents were not made available until mid-May 1982 and then only as an 'interim report'. In summary, the GRS study indicates that the frequency and severity of major accidents is lower for the SNR-300 at the Kalkar site than for a PWR as covered in the German Nuclear Power Plant Risk Study. (orig.) [de

  6. Development of probabilistic risk analysis library

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soga, Shota; Kirimoto, Yukihiro; Kanda, Kenichi

    2015-01-01

    We developed a library that is designed to perform level 1 Probabilistic Risk Analysis using Binary Decision Diagram (BDD). In particular, our goal is to develop a library that will allow Japanese electric utilities to take the advantages of BDD that can solve Event Tree (ET) and Fault Tree (FT) models analytically. Using BDD, the library supports negation in FT which allows more flexible modeling of ET/FT. The library is written by C++ within an object-oriented framework using open source software. The library itself is a header-only library so that Japanese electric utilities can take advantages of its transparency to speed up development and to build their own software for their specific needs. In this report, the basic capabilities of the library is briefly described. In addition, several applications of the library are demonstrated including validation of MCS evaluation of PRA model and evaluation of corrective and preventive maintenance considering common cause failure. (author)

  7. Analysis of uncertainty in modeling perceived risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Melnyk, R.; Sandquist, G.M.

    2005-01-01

    Expanding on a mathematical model developed for quantifying and assessing perceived risks, the distribution functions, variances, and uncertainties associated with estimating the model parameters are quantified. The analytical model permits the identification and assignment of any number of quantifiable risk perception factors that can be incorporated within standard risk methodology. Those risk perception factors associated with major technical issues are modeled using lognormal probability density functions to span the potentially large uncertainty variations associated with these risk perceptions. The model quantifies the logic of public risk perception and provides an effective means for measuring and responding to perceived risks. (authors)

  8. Risk Analysis for Performance Improvement in a Romanian Pharmaceutical Company

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dana Corina Deselnicu

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents risk management analysis carried out to investigate the operations of a Romanian company dealing with the distribution of pharmaceutical products. The main risks challenging the company were identified, described and classified, providing a scientific base for further analysis. Then, the identified inherent risks were evaluated using tools as the risk index method and the risk matrix in order to emphasize their tolerance level. According to the results of the evaluation, risk mitigation strategies and measures were advanced for the management of the analysed risks. Relevant conclusions were drawn from the experience.

  9. ANALYSIS AND MANAGEMENT RISK IN INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS

    OpenAIRE

    Lăpăduşi Mihaela Loredana,; Căruntu Constantin

    2009-01-01

    The risk is one of the most controversial issues for all persons involved both in domestic and international world economic affairs. The need to analyze, understand and effectively manage risk is growing, the ultimate aim being to obtain a higher degree of successThe risk means exposure to an uncertain future, the opportunity to face danger or suffering a loss ( "Risk - possibility of loss or injury", Webster's, 1995) or the chance that things go wrong ( "Risk is the change that something wil...

  10. Insurability of Cyber Risk: An Empirical Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Biener, Christian; Eling, Martin; Wirfs, Jan Hendrik

    2015-01-01

    This paper discusses the adequacy of insurance for managing cyber risk. To this end, we extract 994 cases of cyber losses from an operational risk database and analyse their statistical properties. Based on the empirical results and recent literature, we investigate the insurability of cyber risk by systematically reviewing the set of criteria introduced by Berliner (1982). Our findings emphasise the distinct characteristics of cyber risks compared with other operational risks and bring to li...

  11. HANFORD SAFETY ANALYSIS & RISK ASSESSMENT HANDBOOK (SARAH)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    EVANS, C B

    2004-12-21

    The purpose of the Hanford Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) is to support the development of safety basis documentation for Hazard Category 2 and 3 (HC-2 and 3) U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear facilities to meet the requirements of 10 CFR 830, ''Nuclear Safety Management''. Subpart B, ''Safety Basis Requirements.'' Consistent with DOE-STD-3009-94, Change Notice 2, ''Preparation Guide for U.S. Department of Energy Nonreactor Nuclear Facility Documented Safety Analyses'' (STD-3009), and DOE-STD-3011-2002, ''Guidance for Preparation of Basis for Interim Operation (BIO) Documents'' (STD-3011), the Hanford SARAH describes methodology for performing a safety analysis leading to development of a Documented Safety Analysis (DSA) and derivation of Technical Safety Requirements (TSR), and provides the information necessary to ensure a consistently rigorous approach that meets DOE expectations. The DSA and TSR documents, together with the DOE-issued Safety Evaluation Report (SER), are the basic components of facility safety basis documentation. For HC-2 or 3 nuclear facilities in long-term surveillance and maintenance (S&M), for decommissioning activities, where source term has been eliminated to the point that only low-level, residual fixed contamination is present, or for environmental remediation activities outside of a facility structure, DOE-STD-1120-98, ''Integration of Environment, Safety, and Health into Facility Disposition Activities'' (STD-1120), may serve as the basis for the DSA. HC-2 and 3 environmental remediation sites also are subject to the hazard analysis methodologies of this standard.

  12. Photovoltaic venture analysis. Final report. Volume III. Appendices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Costello, D.; Posner, D.; Schiffel, D.; Doane, J.; Bishop, C.

    1978-07-01

    This appendix contains a brief summary of a detailed description of alternative future energy scenarios which provide an overall backdrop for the photovoltaic venture analysis. Also included is a summary of a photovoltaic market/demand workshop, a summary of a photovoltaic supply workshop which used cross-impact analysis, and a report on photovoltaic array and system prices in 1982 and 1986. The results of a sectorial demand analysis for photovoltaic power systems used in the residential sector (single family homes), the service, commercial, and institutional sector (schools), and in the central power sector are presented. An analysis of photovoltaics in the electric utility market is given, and a report on the industrialization of photovoltaic systems is included. A DOE information memorandum regarding ''A Strategy for a Multi-Year Procurement Initiative on Photovoltaics (ACTS No. ET-002)'' is also included. (WHK)

  13. Viscous wing theory development. Volume 1: Analysis, method and results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chow, R. R.; Melnik, R. E.; Marconi, F.; Steinhoff, J.

    1986-01-01

    Viscous transonic flows at large Reynolds numbers over 3-D wings were analyzed using a zonal viscid-inviscid interaction approach. A new numerical AFZ scheme was developed in conjunction with the finite volume formulation for the solution of the inviscid full-potential equation. A special far-field asymptotic boundary condition was developed and a second-order artificial viscosity included for an improved inviscid solution methodology. The integral method was used for the laminar/turbulent boundary layer and 3-D viscous wake calculation. The interaction calculation included the coupling conditions of the source flux due to the wing surface boundary layer, the flux jump due to the viscous wake, and the wake curvature effect. A method was also devised incorporating the 2-D trailing edge strong interaction solution for the normal pressure correction near the trailing edge region. A fully automated computer program was developed to perform the proposed method with one scalar version to be used on an IBM-3081 and two vectorized versions on Cray-1 and Cyber-205 computers.

  14. GASSAR-6 (General Atomic Standard Safety Analysis Report). Volume 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1975-01-01

    A standard nuclear steam system for a 3000 MW(t), 1160 MW(e) high temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) nuclear power station is described. The HTGR operates on a uranium-235/thorium-232 cycle. Spherical fuel pellets are coated with multiple layers of pyrolytic carbon, bonded into rods, and encased in hexagonal graphite fuel elements. The core is nuclear-purity-grade, near isotropic graphite machined in hexagonal blocks, which serves as moderator and the heat transfer medium between the fuel and the coolant. Forced helium is the primary coolant and water is the secondary coolant. A prestressed concrete reactor vessel (PCRV) houses the reactor core, primary coolant system and portions of the secondary coolant system, steam generators and circulators. A continuous internal steel liner in the PCRV acts as the primary coolant boundary and sealing membrane. The control rods contain boron carbide in a graphite matrix sheathed in Incoloy 800 cans. Boron constitutes about 40 percent of the absorber material by volume. The control rod drives provide insertion and withdrawal rates consistent with the required reactivity changes for operational load fluctuations and reactor shutdown. Control rods have shim and trip capability. (U.S.)

  15. Development and Validation of Methods for Applying Pharmacokinetic Data in Risk Assessment. Volume 2. Trichloroethylene

    Science.gov (United States)

    1990-12-01

    related to presumed mechanisms of TCE-induced liver tumors, especially as they relate to peroxisome proliferation. lFishe-, J., Cargas , M., Allen, B., et...Risk Analysis, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee. Prepared under Contract No. DE -ACO5-94)R21O0 for the U.S. Department of Energy...Dekant et al., 1989). In the liver DCVC may be acetylated to form N-Ac-DCVC which can then be transported back to the kidney where it may be excreted in

  16. Geothermal power development in Hawaii. Volume I. Review and analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1982-06-01

    The history of geothermal exploration in Hawaii is reviewed briefly. The nature and occurrences of geothermal resources are presented island by island. An overview of geothermal markets is presented. Other topies covered are: potential markets of the identified geothermal areas, well drilling technology, hydrothermal fluid transport, overland and submarine electrical transmission, community aspects of geothermal development, legal and policy issues associated with mineral and land ownership, logistics and infrastructure, legislation and permitting, land use controls, Regulation 8, Public Utilities Commission, political climate and environment, state plans, county plans, geothermal development risks, and business planning guidelines.

  17. An analysis of malar fat volume in two age groups: implications for craniofacial surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corey, Christina L; Popelka, Gerald R; Barrera, Jose E; Most, Sam P

    2012-12-01

    Objective To evaluate how malar fat pad (MFP) volumes vary with age, after controlling for gender and body mass index (BMI). Study Design A prospective case-control study evaluating volume of the MFP in women of two age groups. Methods Soft tissue dimensions were measured in eight subjects using magnetic resonance imaging. A multiplanar localizing sequence, followed in sagittal and coronal orientations using a turbo spin echo sequence, was performed to define the MFP. Volumetric calculations were then performed using a 3D image analysis application (Dextroscope, Volume Interactions, Republic of Singapore) to circumscribe areas, orient dimensions, and calculate volumes of the MFP. Results These data reveal no significant difference in the mean (standard deviation) right MFP (p = 0.50), left MFP (p = 0.41), or total MFP (p = 0.45) volumes when comparing the two age groups. In addition, these data indicate that there was no correlation between age and total MFP volume (Pearson correlation coefficient 0.27). Moreover, there was no correlation between age and the ratio of total volume/BMI (Pearson correlation coefficient -0.18). Conclusions Although the sample size of this study was small, these data indicate that ptosis of midfacial fat is more important than volume loss in midfacial aging. These data would suggest repositioning as the primary modality for craniofacial reconstruction.

  18. 49 CFR 260.17 - Credit risk premium analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Credit risk premium analysis. 260.17 Section 260... Financial Assistance § 260.17 Credit risk premium analysis. (a) When Federal appropriations are not available to cover the total subsidy cost, the Administrator will determine the Credit Risk Premium...

  19. Integration of risk analysis, land use planning, and cost analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rajen, G.; Sanchez, G.

    1994-01-01

    The Department of Energy (DOE) and the Pueblo of San Ildefonso (Pueblo), which is a sovereign Indian tribe, have often been involved in adversarial situations regarding the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The Pueblo shares a common boundary with the LANL. This paper describes an on-going project that could alter the DOE and the Pueblo's relationship to one of cooperation; and unite the DOE and the Pueblo in a Pollution Prevention/Waste Minimization, and Integrated Risk Analysis and Land Use Planning effort

  20. Dedicated Perioperative Hip Fracture Comanagement Programs are Cost-effective in High-volume Centers: An Economic Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swart, Eric; Vasudeva, Eshan; Makhni, Eric C; Macaulay, William; Bozic, Kevin J

    2016-01-01

    Osteoporotic hip fractures are common injuries typically occurring in patients who are older and medically frail. Studies have suggested that creation of a multidisciplinary team including orthopaedic surgeons, internal medicine physicians, social workers, and specialized physical therapists, to comanage these patients can decrease complication rates, improve time to surgery, and reduce hospital length of stay; however, they have yet to achieve widespread implementation, partly owing to concerns regarding resource requirements necessary for a comanagement program. We performed an economic analysis to determine whether implementation of a comanagement model of care for geriatric patients with osteoporotic hip fractures would be a cost-effective intervention at hospitals with moderate volume. We also calculated what annual volume of cases would be needed for a comanagement program to "break even", and finally we evaluated whether universal or risk-stratified comanagement was more cost effective. Decision analysis techniques were used to model the effect of implementing a systems-based strategy to improve inpatient perioperative care. Costs were obtained from best-available literature and included salary to support personnel and resources to expedite time to the operating room. The major economic benefit was decreased initial hospital length of stay, which was determined via literature review and meta-analysis, and a health benefit was improvement in perioperative mortality owing to expedited preoperative evaluation based on previously conducted meta-analyses. A break-even analysis was conducted to determine the annual case volume necessary for comanagement to be either (1) cost effective (improve health-related quality of life enough to be worth additional expenses) or (2) result in cost savings (actually result in decreased total expenses). This calculation assumed the scenario in which a hospital could hire only one hospitalist (and therapist and social worker) on

  1. Left ventricular volume analysis as a basic tool to describe cardiac function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerkhof, Peter L M; Kuznetsova, Tatiana; Ali, Rania; Handly, Neal

    2018-03-01

    The heart is often regarded as a compression pump. Therefore, determination of pressure and volume is essential for cardiac function analysis. Traditionally, ventricular performance was described in terms of the Starling curve, i.e., output related to input. This view is based on two variables (namely, stroke volume and end-diastolic volume), often studied in the isolated (i.e., denervated) heart, and has dominated the interpretation of cardiac mechanics over the last century. The ratio of the prevailing coordinates within that paradigm is termed ejection fraction (EF), which is the popular metric routinely used in the clinic. Here we present an insightful alternative approach while describing volume regulation by relating end-systolic volume (ESV) to end-diastolic volume. This route obviates the undesired use of metrics derived from differences or ratios, as employed in previous models. We illustrate basic principles concerning ventricular volume regulation by data obtained from intact animal experiments and collected in healthy humans. Special attention is given to sex-specific differences. The method can be applied to the dynamics of a single heart and to an ensemble of individuals. Group analysis allows for stratification regarding sex, age, medication, and additional clinically relevant covariates. A straightforward procedure derives the relationship between EF and ESV and describes myocardial oxygen consumption in terms of ESV. This representation enhances insight and reduces the impact of the metric EF, in favor of the end-systolic elastance concept advanced 4 decades ago.

  2. Left ventricular pressure and volume data acquisition and analysis using LabVIEW.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassidy, S C; Teitel, D F

    1997-03-01

    To automate analysis of left ventricular pressure-volume data, we used LabVIEW to create applications that digitize and display data recorded from conductance and manometric catheters. Applications separate data into cardiac cycles, calculate parallel conductance, and calculate indices of left ventricular function, including end-systolic elastance, preload-recruitable stroke work, stroke volume, ejection fraction, stroke work, maximum and minimum derivative of ventricular pressure, heart rate, indices of relaxation, peak filling rate, and ventricular chamber stiffness. Pressure-volume loops can be graphically displayed. These analyses are exported to a text-file. These applications have simplified and automated the process of evaluating ventricular function.

  3. Progressive Decline in Hippocampal CA1 Volume in Individuals at Ultra-High-Risk for Psychosis Who Do Not Remit: Findings from the Longitudinal Youth at Risk Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, New Fei; Holt, Daphne J; Cheung, Mike; Iglesias, Juan Eugenio; Goh, Alex; Wang, Mingyuan; Lim, Joseph Kw; de Souza, Joshua; Poh, Joann S; See, Yuen Mei; Adcock, Alison R; Wood, Stephen J; Chee, Michael Wl; Lee, Jimmy; Zhou, Juan

    2017-05-01

    Most individuals identified as ultra-high-risk (UHR) for psychosis do not develop frank psychosis. They continue to exhibit subthreshold symptoms, or go on to fully remit. Prior work has shown that the volume of CA1, a subfield of the hippocampus, is selectively reduced in the early stages of schizophrenia. Here we aimed to determine whether patterns of volume change of CA1 are different in UHR individuals who do or do not achieve symptomatic remission. Structural MRI scans were acquired at baseline and at 1-2 follow-up time points (at 12-month intervals) from 147 UHR and healthy control subjects. An automated method (based on an ex vivo atlas of ultra-high-resolution hippocampal tissue) was used to delineate the hippocampal subfields. Over time, a greater decline in bilateral CA1 subfield volumes was found in the subgroup of UHR subjects whose subthreshold symptoms persisted (n=40) and also those who developed clinical psychosis (n=12), compared with UHR subjects who remitted (n=41) and healthy controls (n=54). No baseline differences in volumes of the overall hippocampus or its subfields were found among the groups. Moreover, the rate of volume decline of CA1, but not of other hippocampal subfields, in the non-remitters was associated with increasing symptom severity over time. Thus, these findings indicate that there is deterioration of CA1 volume in persistently symptomatic UHR individuals in proportion to symptomatic progression.

  4. Photovoltaic venture analysis. Final report. Volume II. Appendices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Costello, D.; Posner, D.; Schiffel, D.; Doane, J.; Bishop, C.

    1978-07-01

    A description of the integrating model for photovoltaic venture analysis is given; input assumptions for the model are described; and the integrating model program listing is given. The integrating model is an explicit representation of the interactions between photovoltaic markets and supply under alternative sets of assumptions. It provides a consistent way of assembling and integrating the various assumptions, data, and information that have been obtained on photovoltaic systems supply and demand factors. Secondly, it provides a mechanism for understanding the implications of all the interacting assumptions. By representing the assumptions in a common, explicit framework, much more complex interactions can be considered than are possible intuitively. The integrating model therefore provides a way of examining the relative importance of different assumptions, parameters, and inputs through sensitivity analysis. Also, detailed results of model sensitivity analysis and detailed market and systems information are presented. (WHK)

  5. Risk uncertainty analysis methods for NUREG-1150

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benjamin, A.S.; Boyd, G.J.

    1987-01-01

    Evaluation and display of risk uncertainties for NUREG-1150 constitute a principal focus of the Severe Accident Risk Rebaselining/Risk Reduction Program (SARRP). Some of the principal objectives of the uncertainty evaluation are: (1) to provide a quantitative estimate that reflects, for those areas considered, a credible and realistic range of uncertainty in risk; (2) to rank the various sources of uncertainty with respect to their importance for various measures of risk; and (3) to characterize the state of understanding of each aspect of the risk assessment for which major uncertainties exist. This paper describes the methods developed to fulfill these objectives

  6. Conceptual risk assessment framework for global change risk analysis SRP

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Elphinstone, CD

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available on two of the most important underlying factors supporting the ecosystem: productivity and hypoxia afiecting harmful algae blooms (HABs) and the rock lobsters. The risk regimes are a function of two time scales | a ‘high’ wind stress in early summer... is a condition which can lead to various negative impacts depending on the particular marine life, for instance rock lobsters stranding. The exact deflnitions of the two seasonal occurrences resulting in the risk event, ‘high’ wind stress in ‘early...

  7. VIPRE-01. a thermal-hydraulic analysis code for reactor cores. Volume 1. Mathematical modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stewart, C.W.; Cuta, J.M.; Koontz, A.S.; Kelly, J.M.; Basehore, K.L.; George, T.L.; Rowe, D.S.

    1983-04-01

    VIPRE (Versatile Internals and Component Program for Reactors; EPRI) has been developed for nuclear power utility thermal-hydraulic analysis applications. It is designed to help evaluate nuclear reactor core safety limits including minimum departure from nucleate boiling ratio (MDNBR), critical power ratio (CPR), fuel and clad temperatures, and coolant state in normal operation and assumed accident conditions. This volume (Volume 1: Mathematical Modeling) explains the major thermal hydraulic models and supporting correlations in detail

  8. SCALE-4 analysis of pressurized water reactor critical configurations. Volume 1: Summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DeHart, M.D.

    1995-03-01

    The requirements of ANSI/ANS 8.1 specify that calculational methods for away-from-reactor criticality safety analyses be validated against experimental measurements. If credit is to be taken for the reduced reactivity of burned or spent fuel relative to its original fresh composition, it is necessary to benchmark computational methods used in determining such reactivity worth against spent fuel reactivity measurements. This report summarizes a portion of the ongoing effort to benchmark away-from-reactor criticality analysis methods using critical configurations from commercial pressurized water reactors (PWR). The analysis methodology utilized for all calculations in this report is based on the modules and data associated with the SCALE-4 code system. Each of the five volumes comprising this report provides an overview of the methodology applied. Subsequent volumes also describe in detail the approach taken in performing criticality calculations for these PWR configurations: Volume 2 describes criticality calculations for the Tennessee Valley Authority's Sequoyah Unit 2 reactor for Cycle 3; Volume 3 documents the analysis of Virginia Power's Surry Unit 1 reactor for the Cycle 2 core; Volume 4 documents the calculations performed based on GPU Nuclear Corporation's Three Mile Island Unit 1 Cycle 5 core; and, lastly, Volume 5 describes the analysis of Virginia Power's North Anna Unit 1 Cycle 5 core. Each of the reactor-specific volumes provides the details of calculations performed to determine the effective multiplication factor for each reactor core for one or more critical configurations using the SCALE-4 system; these results are summarized in this volume. Differences between the core designs and their possible impact on the criticality calculations are also discussed. Finally, results are presented for additional analyses performed to verify that solutions were sufficiently converged

  9. Statistical representative elementary volumes of porous media determined using greyscale analysis of 3D tomograms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruns, S.; Stipp, S. L. S.; Sørensen, H. O.

    2017-09-01

    Digital rock physics carries the dogmatic concept of having to segment volume images for quantitative analysis but segmentation rejects huge amounts of signal information. Information that is essential for the analysis of difficult and marginally resolved samples, such as materials with very small features, is lost during segmentation. In X-ray nanotomography reconstructions of Hod chalk we observed partial volume voxels with an abundance that limits segmentation based analysis. Therefore, we investigated the suitability of greyscale analysis for establishing statistical representative elementary volumes (sREV) for the important petrophysical parameters of this type of chalk, namely porosity, specific surface area and diffusive tortuosity, by using volume images without segmenting the datasets. Instead, grey level intensities were transformed to a voxel level porosity estimate using a Gaussian mixture model. A simple model assumption was made that allowed formulating a two point correlation function for surface area estimates using Bayes' theory. The same assumption enables random walk simulations in the presence of severe partial volume effects. The established sREVs illustrate that in compacted chalk, these simulations cannot be performed in binary representations without increasing the resolution of the imaging system to a point where the spatial restrictions of the represented sample volume render the precision of the measurement unacceptable. We illustrate this by analyzing the origins of variance in the quantitative analysis of volume images, i.e. resolution dependence and intersample and intrasample variance. Although we cannot make any claims on the accuracy of the approach, eliminating the segmentation step from the analysis enables comparative studies with higher precision and repeatability.

  10. Liver volume, intrahepatic fat and body weight in the course of a lifestyle interventional study. Analysis with quantitative MR-based methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bongers, M.N.; Stefan, N.; Fritsche, A.; Haering, H.U.; Nikolaou, K.; Schick, F.; Machann, J.

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate potential associations between changes in liver volume, the amount of intrahepatic lipids (IHL) and body weight during lifestyle interventions. In a prospective study 150 patients with an increased risk for developing type 2 diabetes mellitus were included who followed a caloric restriction diet for 6 months. In the retrospective analysis 18 women and 9 men (age range 22-71 years) with an average body mass index (BMI) of 32 kg/m 2 were enrolled. The liver volume was determined at the beginning and after 6 months by three-dimensional magnetic resonance imaging (3D-MRI, echo gradient, opposed-phase) and IHLs were quantified by volume-selective MR spectroscopy in single voxel stimulated echo acquisition mode (STEAM). Univariable and multivariable correlation analyses between changes of liver volume (Δliver volume), intrahepatic lipids (ΔIHL) and body weight (ΔBW) were performed. Univariable correlation analysis in the whole study cohort showed associations between ΔIHL and ΔBW (r = 0.69; p < 0.0001), ΔIHL and Δliver volume (r = 0.66; p = 0.0002) as well as ΔBW and Δliver volume (r = 0.5; p = 0.0073). Multivariable correlation analysis revealed that changes of liver volume are primarily determined by changes in IHL independent of changes in body weight (β = 0.0272; 95 % CI: 0.0155-0.034; p < 0.0001). Changes of liver volume during lifestyle interventions are independent of changes of body weight primarily determined by changes of IHL. These results show the reversibility of augmented liver volume in steatosis if it is possible to reduce IHLs during lifestyle interventions. (orig.) [de

  11. Multiple Sclerosis Increases Fracture Risk: A Meta-Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guixian Dong

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. The association between multiple sclerosis (MS and fracture risk has been reported, but results of previous studies remain controversial and ambiguous. To assess the association between MS and fracture risk, a meta-analysis was performed. Method. Based on comprehensive searches of the PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science, we identified outcome data from all articles estimating the association between MS and fracture risk. The pooled risk ratios (RRs with 95% confidence intervals (CIs were calculated. Results. A significant association between MS and fracture risk was found. This result remained statistically significant when the adjusted RRs were combined. Subgroup analysis stratified by the site of fracture suggested significant associations between MS and tibia fracture risk, femur fracture risk, hip fracture risk, pelvis fracture risk, vertebrae fracture risk, and humerus fracture risk. In the subgroup analysis by gender, female MS patients had increased fracture risk. When stratified by history of drug use, use of antidepressants, hypnotics/anxiolytics, anticonvulsants, and glucocorticoids increased the risk of fracture risk in MS patients. Conclusions. This meta-analysis demonstrated that MS was significantly associated with fracture risk.

  12. Cost-volume-profit and net present value analysis of health information systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLean, R A

    1998-08-01

    The adoption of any information system should be justified by an economic analysis demonstrating that its projected benefits outweigh its projected costs. Analysis differ, however, on which methods to employ for such a justification. Accountants prefer cost-volume-profit analysis, and economists prefer net present value analysis. The article explains the strengths and weaknesses of each method and shows how they can be used together so that well-informed investments in information systems can be made.

  13. Function spaces and partial differential equations volume 2 : contemporary analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Taheri, Ali

    2015-01-01

    This is a book written primarily for graduate students and early researchers in the fields of Analysis and Partial Differential Equations (PDEs). Coverage of the material is essentially self-contained, extensive and novel with great attention to details and rigour.

  14. Licensing support system preliminary needs analysis: Volume 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1989-01-01

    This Preliminary Needs Analysis, together with the Preliminary Data Scope Analysis (next in this series of reports), is a first effort under the LSS Design and Implementation Contract toward developing a sound requirements foundation for subsequent design work. Further refinements must be made before requirements can be specified in sufficient detail to provide a basis for suitably specific system specifications. This preliminary analysis of the LSS requirements has been divided into a ''needs'' and a ''data scope'' portion only for project management and scheduling reasons. The Preliminary Data Scope Analysis will address all issues concerning the content and size of the LSS data base; providing the requirements basis for data acquisition, cataloging and storage sizing specifications. This report addresses all other requirements for the LSS. The LSS consists of both computer subsystems and non-computer archives. This study addresses only the computer subsystems, focusing on the Access Subsystems. After providing background on previous LSS-related work, this report summarizes the findings from previous examinations of needs and describes a number of other requirements that have an impact on the LSS. The results of interviews conducted for this report are then described and analyzed. The final section of the report brings all of the key findings together and describes how these needs analyses will continue to be refined and utilized in on-going design activities. 14 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab

  15. Technical Overview of Ecological Risk Assessment - Analysis Phase: Exposure Characterization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Exposure Characterization is the second major component of the analysis phase of a risk assessment. For a pesticide risk assessment, the exposure characterization describes the potential or actual contact of a pesticide with a plant, animal, or media.

  16. Structural reliability analysis applied to pipeline risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gardiner, M. [GL Industrial Services, Loughborough (United Kingdom); Mendes, Renato F.; Donato, Guilherme V.P. [PETROBRAS S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) of pipelines requires two main components to be provided. These are models of the consequences that follow from some loss of containment incident, and models for the likelihood of such incidents occurring. This paper describes how PETROBRAS have used Structural Reliability Analysis for the second of these, to provide pipeline- and location-specific predictions of failure frequency for a number of pipeline assets. This paper presents an approach to estimating failure rates for liquid and gas pipelines, using Structural Reliability Analysis (SRA) to analyze the credible basic mechanisms of failure such as corrosion and mechanical damage. SRA is a probabilistic limit state method: for a given failure mechanism it quantifies the uncertainty in parameters to mathematical models of the load-resistance state of a structure and then evaluates the probability of load exceeding resistance. SRA can be used to benefit the pipeline risk management process by optimizing in-line inspection schedules, and as part of the design process for new construction in pipeline rights of way that already contain multiple lines. A case study is presented to show how the SRA approach has recently been used on PETROBRAS pipelines and the benefits obtained from it. (author)

  17. A Roadmap of Risk Diagnostic Methods: Developing an Integrated View of Risk Identification and Analysis Techniques

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Williams, Ray; Ambrose, Kate; Bentrem, Laura

    2004-01-01

    ...), which is envisioned to be a comprehensive reference tool for risk identification and analysis (RI AND A) techniques. Program Managers (PMs) responsible for developing or acquiring software-intensive systems typically identify risks in different ways...

  18. Chemical risk evaluation, importance of the risk analysis framework uses: Latin America development restrictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carrillo, M.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation is about reach and results of the risk analysis in Venezuela, chemical dangers in food, human damage, injuries , technologies news in fodd development, toxicity, microbiological risk, technical recommendations

  19. Putting problem formulation at the forefront of GMO risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tepfer, Mark; Racovita, Monica; Craig, Wendy

    2013-01-01

    When applying risk assessment and the broader process of risk analysis to decisions regarding the dissemination of genetically modified organisms (GMOs), the process has a tendency to become remarkably complex. Further, as greater numbers of countries consider authorising the large-scale dissemination of GMOs, and as GMOs with more complex traits reach late stages of development, there has been increasing concern about the burden posed by the complexity of risk analysis. We present here an improved approach for GMO risk analysis that gives a central role to problem formulation. Further, the risk analysis strategy has been clarified and simplified in order to make rigorously scientific risk assessment and risk analysis more broadly accessible to diverse stakeholder groups.

  20. Final report : Occupational gap analysis, volume 2 Wood Buffalo region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-06-01

    The general economy of the Wood Buffalo region of Alberta has improved in recent years due to the expansion of the oil sand industry. Many of the oil sands projects are situated in the southern part of the region and are serviced out of Lac LaBiche. This paper examines the implications of this economic growth for the regional supply and demand of workers in key occupational categories. In particular, it projects employment opportunities that are directly attributed to the regional economic expansion, and assesses whether there will be an adequate supply of workers to meet the demand for new and replacement employees. The report includes: an overview of the regional economy; a population forecast for the region and the demand for workers in selected occupations; an analysis of whether or not the new labour force entrants will choose the selected occupations; and, a supply and demand analysis. 7 tabs., 2 figs., 5 appendices

  1. Peripheral i.v. analysis (PIVA) of venous waveforms for volume assessment in patients undergoing haemodialysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hocking, K M; Alvis, B D; Baudenbacher, F; Boyer, R; Brophy, C M; Beer, I; Eagle, S

    2017-12-01

    The assessment of intravascular volume status remains a challenge for clinicians. Peripheral i.v. analysis (PIVA) is a method for analysing the peripheral venous waveform that has been used to monitor volume status. We present a proof-of-concept study for evaluating the efficacy of PIVA in detecting changes in fluid volume. We enrolled 37 hospitalized patients undergoing haemodialysis (HD) as a controlled model for intravascular volume loss. Respiratory rate (F0) and pulse rate (F1) frequencies were measured. PIVA signal was obtained by fast Fourier analysis of the venous waveform followed by weighing the magnitude of the amplitude of the pulse rate frequency. PIVA was compared with peripheral venous pressure and standard monitoring of vital signs. Regression analysis showed a linear correlation between volume loss and change in the PIVA signal (R2=0.77). Receiver operator curves demonstrated that the PIVA signal showed an area under the curve of 0.89 for detection of 20 ml kg-1 change in volume. There was no correlation between volume loss and peripheral venous pressure, blood pressure or pulse rate. PIVA-derived pulse rate and respiratory rate were consistent with similar numbers derived from the bio-impedance and electrical signals from the electrocardiogram. PIVA is a minimally invasive, novel modality for detecting changes in fluid volume status, respiratory rate and pulse rate in spontaneously breathing patients with peripheral i.v. cannulas. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Journal of Anaesthesia. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

  2. Risk management study for the Hanford Site facilities: Risk reduction cost comparison for the retired Hanford Site facilities. Volume 4

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coles, G.A.; Egge, R.G.; Senger, E.; Shultz, M.W.; Taylor, W.E.

    1994-02-01

    This document provides a cost-comparison evaluation for implementing certain risk-reduction measures and their effect on the overall risk of the 100 and 200 Area retired, surplus facilities. The evaluation is based on conditions that existed at the time the risk evaluation team performed facility investigations, and does not acknowledge risk-reduction measures that occurred soon after risk identification. This evaluation is one part of an overall risk management study for these facilities. The retired facilities investigated for this evaluation are located in the 100 and 200 Areas of the 1450-km{sup 2} Hanford Site. The Hanford Site is a semiarid tract of land in southeastern Washington State. The nearest population center is Richland, Washington, (population 32,000) 30 km southeast of the 200 Area. This cost-comparison evaluation (1) determines relative costs for reducing risk to acceptable levels; (2) compares the cost of reducing risk using different risk-reduction options; and (3) compares the cost of reducing risks at different facilities. The result is an identification of the cost effective risk-reduction measures. Supporting information required to develop costs of the various risk-reduction options also is included.

  3. Treatment Time or Convection Volume in HDF : What Drives the Reduced Mortality Risk?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Roij van Zuijdewijn, Camiel L M; Nubé, Menso J.; ter Wee, Piet M.; Blankestijn, Peter J.; Lévesque, Renée; van den Dorpel, Marinus A.; Bots, Michiel L.; Grooteman, Muriel P C

    Background/Aims: Treatment time is associated with survival in hemodialysis (HD) patients and with convection volume in hemodiafiltration (HDF) patients. High-volume HDF is associated with improved survival. Therefore, we investigated whether this survival benefit is explained by treatment time.

  4. Statistical models for competing risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sather, H.N.

    1976-08-01

    Research results on three new models for potential applications in competing risks problems. One section covers the basic statistical relationships underlying the subsequent competing risks model development. Another discusses the problem of comparing cause-specific risk structure by competing risks theory in two homogeneous populations, P1 and P2. Weibull models which allow more generality than the Berkson and Elveback models are studied for the effect of time on the hazard function. The use of concomitant information for modeling single-risk survival is extended to the multiple failure mode domain of competing risks. The model used to illustrate the use of this methodology is a life table model which has constant hazards within pre-designated intervals of the time scale. Two parametric models for bivariate dependent competing risks, which provide interesting alternatives, are proposed and examined

  5. Computational Aspects of Dam Risk Analysis: Findings and Challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ignacio Escuder-Bueno

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, risk analysis techniques have proved to be a useful tool to inform dam safety management. This paper summarizes the outcomes of three themes related to dam risk analysis discussed in the Benchmark Workshops organized by the International Commission on Large Dams Technical Committee on “Computational Aspects of Analysis and Design of Dams.” In the 2011 Benchmark Workshop, estimation of the probability of failure of a gravity dam for the sliding failure mode was discussed. Next, in 2013, the discussion focused on the computational challenges of the estimation of consequences in dam risk analysis. Finally, in 2015, the probability of sliding and overtopping in an embankment was analyzed. These Benchmark Workshops have allowed a complete review of numerical aspects for dam risk analysis, showing that risk analysis methods are a very useful tool to analyze the risk of dam systems, including downstream consequence assessments and the uncertainty of structural models.

  6. Seismic risk analysis in the German risk study phase B

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hasser, D.; Liemersdorf, J.

    1989-01-01

    The paper discusses some aspects of the seismic risk part of the German risk study for nuclear power plants, phase B. First simplified analyses in phase A of the study allowed a rough classification of structures and systems of the PWR reference plant according to their seismic risk contribution. These studies were extended in phase B using improved models for the dynamic analyses of buildings, structures and components as well as for the probabilistic analyses of seismic loading, failure probabilities and event trees. The methodology of deriving probabilistic seismic load descriptions is explained and compared with the methods in phase A of the study and in other studies. Some details of the linear and nonlinear dynamic analyses of structures are reported, in order to demonstrate the influence of different assumptions for material behavior and failure criteria. The probabilistic structural and event tree analyses are discussed with respect to the distribution assumptions, acceptable simplifications, special results for the PWR reference plant and, finally, the influence of model uncertainties

  7. Lobar analysis of collapsibility indices to assess functional lung volumes in COPD patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kitano, Mariko; Iwano, Shingo; Hashimoto, Naozumi; Matsuo, Keiji; Hasegawa, Yoshinori; Naganawa, Shinji

    2014-01-01

    We investigated correlations between lung volume collapsibility indices and pulmonary function test (PFT) results and assessed lobar differences in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients, using paired inspiratory and expiratory three dimensional (3D) computed tomography (CT) images. We retrospectively assessed 28 COPD patients who underwent paired inspiratory and expiratory CT and PFT exams on the same day. A computer-aided diagnostic system calculated total lobar volume and emphysematous lobar volume (ELV). Normal lobar volume (NLV) was determined by subtracting ELV from total lobar volume, both for inspiratory phase (NLVI) and for expiratory phase (NLVE). We also determined lobar collapsibility indices: NLV collapsibility ratio (NLVCR) (%)=(1-NLVE/NLVI)×100%. Associations between lobar volumes and PFT results, and collapsibility indices and PFT results were determined by Pearson correlation analysis. NLVCR values were significantly correlated with PFT results. Forced expiratory volume in 1 second, measured as percent of predicted results (FEV1%P) was significantly correlated with NLVCR values for the lower lobes (Pvolume, measured as percent of predicted (DLCO/VA%P) results were strongly correlated with ELVI for the upper lobes (Ppulmonary function in COPD patients.

  8. Determination of bone mineral volume fraction using impedance analysis and Bruggeman model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ciuchi, Ioana Veronica; Olariu, Cristina Stefania, E-mail: oocristina@yahoo.com; Mitoseriu, Liliana, E-mail: lmtsr@uaic.ro

    2013-11-20

    Highlights: • Mineral volume fraction of a bone sample was determined. • Dielectric properties for bone sample and for the collagen type I were determined by impedance spectroscopy. • Bruggeman effective medium approximation was applied in order to evaluate mineral volume fraction of the sample. • The computed values were compared with ones derived from a histogram test performed on SEM micrographs. -- Abstract: Measurements by impedance spectroscopy and Bruggeman effective medium approximation model were employed in order to determine the mineral volume fraction of dry bone. This approach assumes that two or more phases are present into the composite: the matrix (environment) and the other ones are inclusion phases. A fragment of femur diaphysis dense bone from a young pig was investigated in its dehydrated state. Measuring the dielectric properties of bone and its main components (hydroxyapatite and collagen) and using the Bruggeman approach, the mineral volume filling factor was determined. The computed volume fraction of the mineral volume fraction was confirmed by a histogram test analysis based on the SEM microstructures. In spite of its simplicity, the method provides a good approximation for the bone mineral volume fraction. The method which uses impedance spectroscopy and EMA modeling can be further developed by considering the conductive components of the bone tissue as a non-invasive in situ impedance technique for bone composition evaluation and monitoring.

  9. Determination of bone mineral volume fraction using impedance analysis and Bruggeman model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ciuchi, Ioana Veronica; Olariu, Cristina Stefania; Mitoseriu, Liliana

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • Mineral volume fraction of a bone sample was determined. • Dielectric properties for bone sample and for the collagen type I were determined by impedance spectroscopy. • Bruggeman effective medium approximation was applied in order to evaluate mineral volume fraction of the sample. • The computed values were compared with ones derived from a histogram test performed on SEM micrographs. -- Abstract: Measurements by impedance spectroscopy and Bruggeman effective medium approximation model were employed in order to determine the mineral volume fraction of dry bone. This approach assumes that two or more phases are present into the composite: the matrix (environment) and the other ones are inclusion phases. A fragment of femur diaphysis dense bone from a young pig was investigated in its dehydrated state. Measuring the dielectric properties of bone and its main components (hydroxyapatite and collagen) and using the Bruggeman approach, the mineral volume filling factor was determined. The computed volume fraction of the mineral volume fraction was confirmed by a histogram test analysis based on the SEM microstructures. In spite of its simplicity, the method provides a good approximation for the bone mineral volume fraction. The method which uses impedance spectroscopy and EMA modeling can be further developed by considering the conductive components of the bone tissue as a non-invasive in situ impedance technique for bone composition evaluation and monitoring

  10. Automating risk analysis of software design models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frydman, Maxime; Ruiz, Guifré; Heymann, Elisa; César, Eduardo; Miller, Barton P

    2014-01-01

    The growth of the internet and networked systems has exposed software to an increased amount of security threats. One of the responses from software developers to these threats is the introduction of security activities in the software development lifecycle. This paper describes an approach to reduce the need for costly human expertise to perform risk analysis in software, which is common in secure development methodologies, by automating threat modeling. Reducing the dependency on security experts aims at reducing the cost of secure development by allowing non-security-aware developers to apply secure development with little to no additional cost, making secure development more accessible. To automate threat modeling two data structures are introduced, identification trees and mitigation trees, to identify threats in software designs and advise mitigation techniques, while taking into account specification requirements and cost concerns. These are the components of our model for automated threat modeling, AutSEC. We validated AutSEC by implementing it in a tool based on data flow diagrams, from the Microsoft security development methodology, and applying it to VOMS, a grid middleware component, to evaluate our model's performance.

  11. Does Flywheel Paradigm Training Improve Muscle Volume and Force? A Meta-Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nuñez Sanchez, Francisco J; Sáez de Villarreal, Eduardo

    2017-11-01

    Núñez Sanchez, FJ and Sáez de Villarreal, E. Does flywheel paradigm training improve muscle volume and force? A meta-analysis. J Strength Cond Res 31(11): 3177-3186, 2017-Several studies have confirmed the efficacy of flywheel paradigm training for improving or benefiting muscle volume and force. A meta-analysis of 13 studies with a total of 18 effect sizes was performed to analyse the role of various factors on the effectiveness of flywheel paradigm training. The following inclusion criteria were employed for the analysis: (a) randomized studies; (b) high validity and reliability instruments; (c) published in a high quality peer-reviewed journal; (d) healthy participants; (e) studies where the eccentric programme were described; and (f) studies where increases in muscle volume and force were measured before and after training. Increases in muscle volume and force were noted through the use of flywheel systems during short periods of training. The increase in muscle mass appears was not influenced by the existence of eccentric overload during the exercise. The increase in force was significantly higher with the existence of eccentric overload during the exercise. The responses identified in this analysis are essential and should be considered by strength and conditioning professionals regarding the most appropriate dose response trends for flywheel paradigm systems to optimize the increase in muscle volume and force.

  12. Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Safety Analysis Report. Volume 5

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1986-01-01

    This Safety Analysis Report (SAR) has been prepared by the US Department of Energy (DOE) to support the construction and operation of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) in southeastern New Mexico. The WIPP facility is designed to receive, inspect, emplace, and store unclassified defense-generated transuranic wastes in a retrievable fashion in an underground salt medium and to conduct studies and perform experiments in salt with high-level wastes. Upon the successful completion of these studies and experiments, WIPP is designed to serve as a permanent facility. The first chapter of this report provides a summary of the location and major design features of WIPP. Chapters 2 through 5 describe the site characteristics, design criteria, and design bases used in the design of the plant and the plant operations. Chapter 6 discusses radiation protection; Chapters 7 and 8 present an accident analysis of the plant and an assessment of the long-term waste isolation at WIPP. The conduct of operations and operating controls and limits are discussed in Chapters 9 and 10. The quality assurance programs are described in Chapter 11

  13. Wind tunnel test IA300 analysis and results, volume 1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelley, P. B.; Beaufait, W. B.; Kitchens, L. L.; Pace, J. P.

    1987-01-01

    The analysis and interpretation of wind tunnel pressure data from the Space Shuttle wind tunnel test IA300 are presented. The primary objective of the test was to determine the effects of the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) and the Solid Rocket Booster (SRB) plumes on the integrated vehicle forebody pressure distributions, the elevon hinge moments, and wing loads. The results of this test will be combined with flight test results to form a new data base to be employed in the IVBC-3 airloads analysis. A secondary objective was to obtain solid plume data for correlation with the results of gaseous plume tests. Data from the power level portion was used in conjunction with flight base pressures to evaluate nominal power levels to be used during the investigation of changes in model attitude, eleveon deflection, and nozzle gimbal angle. The plume induced aerodynamic loads were developed for the Space Shuttle bases and forebody areas. A computer code was developed to integrate the pressure data. Using simplified geometrical models of the Space Shuttle elements and components, the pressure data were integrated to develop plume induced force and moments coefficients that can be combined with a power-off data base to develop a power-on data base.

  14. Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Safety Analysis Report. Volume 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1986-01-01

    This Safety Analysis Report (SAR) has been prepared by the US Department of Energy (DOE) to support the construction and operation of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) in southeastern New Mexico. The WIPP facility is designed to receive, inspect, emplace, and store unclassified defense-generated transuranic wastes in a retrievable fashion in an underground salt medium and to conduct studies and perform experiments in salt with high-level wastes. Upon the successful completion of these studies and experiments, WIPP is designed to serve as a permanent facility. The first chapter of this report provides a summary of the location and major design features of WIPP. Chapters 2 through 5 describe the site characteristics, design criteria, and design bases used in the design of the plant and the plant operations. Chapter 6 discusses radiation protection: Chapters 7 and 8 present an accident analysis of the plant and an assessment of the long-term waste isolation at WIPP. The conduct of operations and operating control and limits are discussed in Chapters 9 and 10. The quality assurance programs are described in Chapter 11

  15. Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Safety Analysis Report. Volume 4

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1986-01-01

    This Safety Analysis Report (SAR) has been prepared by the US Department of Energy (DOE) to support the construction and operation of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) in southeastern New Mexico. The WIPP facility is designed to receive, inspect, emplace, and store unclassified defense-generated transuranic wastes in a retrievable fashion in an underground salt medium and to conduct studies and perform experiments in salt with high-level wastes. Upon the successful completion of these studies and experiments, WIPP is designed to serve as a permanent facility. The first chapter of this report provides a summary of the location and major design features of WIPP. Chapters 2 through 5 describe the site characteristics, design criteria, and design bases used in the design of the plant and the plant operations. Chapter 6 discusses radiation protection; Chapters 7 and 8 present an accident analysis of the plant and an assessment of the long-term waste isolation at WIPP. The conduct of operations and operating controls and limits are discussed in Chapters 9 and 10. The quality assurance programs are described in Chapter 11

  16. Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Safety Analysis Report. Volume 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1986-01-01

    This Safety Analysis Report (SAR) has been prepared by the US Department of Energy (DOE) to support the construction and operation of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) in southeastern New Mexico. The WIPP facility is designed to receive, inspect, emplace, and store unclassified defense-generated transuranic wastes in a retrievable fashion in an underground salt medium and to conduct studies and perform experiments in salt with high-level wastes. Upon the successful completion of these studies and experiments, WIPP is designed to serve as a permanent facility. The first chapter of this report provides a summary of the location and major design features of WIPP. Chapters 2 through 5 describe the site characteristics, design criteria, and design bases used in the design of the plant and the plant operations. Chapter 6 discusses radiation protection; Chapters 7 and 8 present an accident analysis of the plant and an assessment of the long-term waste isolation at WIPP. The conduct of operations and operating controls and limits are discussed in Chapters 9 and 10. The quality assurance programs are described in Chapter 11

  17. Evaluating the risks of clinical research: direct comparative analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rid, Annette; Abdoler, Emily; Roberson-Nay, Roxann; Pine, Daniel S; Wendler, David

    2014-09-01

    Many guidelines and regulations allow children and adolescents to be enrolled in research without the prospect of clinical benefit when it poses minimal risk. However, few systematic methods exist to determine when research risks are minimal. This situation has led to significant variation in minimal risk judgments, raising concern that some children are not being adequately protected. To address this concern, we describe a new method for implementing the widely endorsed "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk. This standard defines research risks as minimal when they do not exceed the risks posed by daily life activities or routine examinations. This study employed a conceptual and normative analysis, and use of an illustrative example. Different risks are composed of the same basic elements: Type, likelihood, and magnitude of harm. Hence, one can compare the risks of research and the risks of daily life by comparing the respective basic elements with each other. We use this insight to develop a systematic method, direct comparative analysis, for implementing the "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk. The method offers a way of evaluating research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities, such as the risk of experiencing anxiety, stress, or other psychological harm. We thus illustrate how direct comparative analysis can be applied in practice by using it to evaluate whether the anxiety induced by a respiratory CO2 challenge poses minimal or greater than minimal risks in children and adolescents. Direct comparative analysis is a systematic method for applying the "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk to research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities. It thereby offers a method to protect children and adolescents in research, while ensuring that important studies are not blocked because of unwarranted concerns about research risks.

  18. Analysis meets geometry the Mikael Passare memorial volume

    CERN Document Server

    Boman, Jan; Kiselman, Christer; Kurasov, Pavel; Sigurdsson, Ragnar

    2017-01-01

    This book is dedicated to the memory of Mikael Passare, an outstanding Swedish mathematician who devoted his life to developing the theory of analytic functions in several complex variables and exploring geometric ideas first-hand. It includes several papers describing Mikael’s life as well as his contributions to mathematics, written by friends of Mikael’s who share his attitude and passion for science. A major section of the book presents original research articles that further develop Mikael’s ideas and which were written by his former students and co-authors. All these mathematicians work at the interface of analysis and geometry, and Mikael’s impact on their research cannot be underestimated. Most of the contributors were invited speakers at the conference organized at Stockholm University in his honor. This book is an attempt to express our gratitude towards this great mathematician, who left us full of energy and new creative mathematical ideas.

  19. RISK ANALYSIS IN INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY AND COMMUNICATION OUTSOURCING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edmir Parada Vasques Prado

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available This research aims at evaluating the risk analysis process in Information Technology and Communication (ICT outsourcing conducted by organizations of the private sector. The research is characterized by being a descriptive, quantitative and transversal type study, which was used the survey method. Data were collected through questionnaire, the sample is not random and we used a convenience sampling process. The research made contributions to understanding the risk analysis process in ICT services outsourcing, and identified statistically significant relationships between risk analysis, organization's size and its industry, and between risk analysis and diversity of outsourced services

  20. A comparative analysis of risk and quality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lynette, Jennifer Elyse

    2017-01-01

    Within the field of emergency management and fire response, risk and quality are conceptualized to some degree in every response effort. Quality is viewed as a relatively new concept within the field of emergency management and fire response. Whereas, within this same field the concept of risk is....... This understanding can serve to facilitate more informed and effective decision making that incorporates both risk and quality before, during, and after emergency events....... independently, decision making and judgement processes have the potential to be positively impacted by furthering research and developing a deeper understanding of these constructs. By understanding risk management principles and combining that with a quality systems approach, decision making can be improved......Within the field of emergency management and fire response, risk and quality are conceptualized to some degree in every response effort. Quality is viewed as a relatively new concept within the field of emergency management and fire response. Whereas, within this same field the concept of risk...

  1. The percentage of core involved by cancer is the best predictor of insignificant prostate cancer, according to an updated definition (tumor volume up to 2.5 cm3): analysis of a cohort of 210 consecutive patients with low-risk disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antonelli, Alessandro; Vismara Fugini, Andrea; Tardanico, Regina; Giovanessi, Luca; Zambolin, Tiziano; Simeone, Claudio

    2014-01-01

    To find out which factors could predict the diagnosis of insignificant prostate cancer (ins-PCa) according to a recently updated definition (overall tumor volume up to 2.5 cm(3); final Gleason score ≤6; organ-confined disease) on a prostatic biopsy specimen. This was a retrospective analysis of 210 patients undergoing radical prostatectomy for a cT1c prostate neoplasm with a biopsy specimen Gleason score of ≤6. A logistic regression model was used to assess the differences in the distribution of some possibly predictive factors between the ins-PCa patients, according to the updated definition, and the remaining patients. By applying an updated definition of ins-PCa, the prevalence of this condition increased from 13.3% to 49.5% (104 of 210 patients). The univariate analysis showed a statistically different distribution of the following factors: prostate-specific antigen density, prostate volume, number of cancer-involved cores, and maximum percentage of core involvement by cancer. At the multivariable analysis, the maximum percentage of involvement of the core retained its relevance (27.0% in ins-PCa patients and 43.8% in the remaining patients; hazard ratio, 0.972; P = .046), and a 20% cutoff was detected. In a cohort of patients with PCa cT1c and a biopsy specimen Gleason score of ≤6, the ins-PCa rate, according to the updated definition, is close to 50%, and the percentage of cancer involvement of the core is the single factor that best predicts this diagnosis. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Volume 1. Probabilistic analysis of HTGR application studies. Technical discussion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    May, J.; Perry, L.

    1980-01-01

    The HTGR Program encompasses a number of decisions facing both industry and government which are being evaluated under the HTGR application studies being conducted by the GCRA. This report is in support of these application studies, specifically by developing comparative probabilistic energy costs of the alternative HTGR plant types under study at this time and of competitive PWR and coal-fired plants. Management decision analytic methodology was used as the basis for the development of the comparative probabilistic data. This study covers the probabilistic comparison of various HTGR plant types at a commercial development stage with comparative PWR and coal-fired plants. Subsequent studies are needed to address the sequencing of HTGR plants from the lead plant to the commercial plants and to integrate the R and D program into the plant construction sequence. The probabilistic results cover the comparison of the 15-year levelized energy costs for commercial plants, all with 1995 startup dates. For comparison with the HTGR plants, PWR and fossil-fired plants have been included in the probabilistic analysis, both as steam electric plants and as combined steam electric and process heat plants

  3. Risk analysis in transport and logistics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ene Andreea Bianca

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Globalization and production concentration have led to more efficient supply chain networks, which has led to the emergence of different types of risks. Although most companies have implemented special risk management programs, there may be events that can not be controlled by businesses, and unwanted consequences are not delayed.

  4. Applications of probabilistic risk analysis in nuclear criticality safety design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, J.K.

    1992-01-01

    Many documents have been prepared that try to define the scope of the criticality analysis and that suggest adding probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) to the deterministic safety analysis. The report of the US Department of Energy (DOE) AL 5481.1B suggested that an accident is credible if the occurrence probability is >1 x 10 -6 /yr. The draft DOE 5480 safety analysis report suggested that safety analyses should include the application of methods such as deterministic safety analysis, risk assessment, reliability engineering, common-cause failure analysis, human reliability analysis, and human factor safety analysis techniques. The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) report NRC SG830.110 suggested that major safety analysis methods should include but not be limited to risk assessment, reliability engineering, and human factor safety analysis. All of these suggestions have recommended including PRA in the traditional criticality analysis

  5. Finite volume analysis of temperature effects induced by active MRI implants: 2. Defects on active MRI implants causing hot spots

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grönemeyer Dietrich HW

    2006-05-01

    worst case, points out that resonators with a small product of inductance volume and quality factor (Q Vind 3 are definitely save. Stents for coronary vessels or resonators used as tracking devices for interventional procedures therefore have no risk of high temperature increases. The finite volume analysis shows for sure that also conditions not close to the worst case reach physiologically critical temperature increases for implants with a large product of inductance volume and quality factor (Q Vind > 10 cm3. Such resonators exclude patients from exactly the MRI investigation these devices are made for.

  6. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

    2016-04-01

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  7. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

    2016-01-01

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  8. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy, E-mail: gasandylang@live.com; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Diponegoro University, Semarang (Indonesia); Kim, Seon Jin [Department of Mechanical & Automotive Engineering of Pukyong National University (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-04-19

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  9. Risk-stratifying capacity of PET/CT metabolic tumor volume in stage IIIA non-small cell lung cancer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Finkle, Joshua H.; Jo, Stephanie Y.; Yuan, Cindy; Pu, Yonglin [University of Chicago, Department of Radiology, Chicago, IL (United States); Ferguson, Mark K. [University of Chicago, Department of Surgery, Chicago, IL (United States); Liu, Hai-Yan [First Hospital of Shanxi Medical University, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Taiyuan, Shanxi (China); Zhang, Chenpeng [Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Department of Nuclear Medicine, RenJi Hospital, School of Medicine, Shanghai (China); Zhu, Xuee [Nanjing Medical University, Department of Radiology, BenQ Medical Center, Nanjing, Jiangsu Province (China)

    2017-08-15

    Stage IIIA non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is heterogeneous in tumor burden, and its treatment is variable. Whole-body metabolic tumor volume (MTV{sub WB}) has been shown to be an independent prognostic index for overall survival (OS). However, the potential of MTV{sub WB} to risk-stratify stage IIIA NSCLC has previously been unknown. If we can identify subgroups within the stage exhibiting significant OS differences using MTV{sub WB}, MTV{sub WB} may lead to adjustments in patients' risk profile evaluations and may, therefore, influence clinical decision making regarding treatment. We estimated the risk-stratifying capacity of MTV{sub WB} in stage IIIA by comparing OS of stratified stage IIIA with stage IIB and IIIB NSCLC. We performed a retrospective review of 330 patients with clinical stage IIB, IIIA, and IIIB NSCLC diagnosed between 2004 and 2014. The patients' clinical TNM stage, initial MTV{sub WB}, and long-term survival data were collected. Patients with TNM stage IIIA disease were stratified by MTV{sub WB}. The optimal MTV{sub WB} cutoff value for stage IIIA patients was calculated using sequential log-rank tests. Univariate and multivariate cox regression analyses and Kaplan-Meier OS analysis with log-rank tests were performed. The optimal MTV{sub WB} cut-point was 29.2 mL for the risk-stratification of stage IIIA. We identified statistically significant differences in OS between stage IIB and IIIA patients (p < 0.01), between IIIA and IIIB patients (p < 0.01), and between the stage IIIA patients with low MTV{sub WB} (below 29.2 mL) and the stage IIIA patients with high MTV{sub WB} (above 29.2 mL) (p < 0.01). There was no OS difference between the low MTV{sub WB} stage IIIA and the cohort of stage IIB patients (p = 0.485), or between the high MTV{sub WB} stage IIIA patients and the cohort of stage IIIB patients (p = 0.459). Similar risk-stratification capacity of MTV{sub WB} was observed in a large range of cutoff values from 15 to 55 mL in

  10. Essays on Systemic Risk : An analysis from multiple perspectives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. Muns (Sander)

    2016-01-01

    markdownabstractThis thesis is about systemic risk in the financial sector. It considers several aspects of systemic risk. It is a building block for an analysis of the impact of systemic risk on the real economy. It appears that stocks in the financial industry show a strong interdependence

  11. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Food chain uncertainty assessment. Volume 1: Main report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, J. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands)] [and others

    1997-06-01

    This volume is the first of a two-volume document that summarizes a joint project conducted by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the European Commission to assess uncertainties in the MACCS and COSYMA probabilistic accident consequence codes. These codes were developed primarily for estimating the risks presented by nuclear reactors based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. This document reports on an ongoing project to assess uncertainty in the MACCS and COSYMA calculations for the offsite consequences of radionuclide releases by hypothetical nuclear power plant accidents. A panel of sixteen experts was formed to compile credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for food chain variables that affect calculations of offsite consequences. The expert judgment elicitation procedure and its outcomes are described in these volumes. Other panels were formed to consider uncertainty in other aspects of the codes. Their results are described in companion reports. Volume 1 contains background information and a complete description of the joint consequence uncertainty study. Volume 2 contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures for both panels, (3) the rationales and results for the panels on soil and plant transfer and animal transfer, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.

  12. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Food chain uncertainty assessment. Volume 1: Main report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, J.; Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.

    1997-06-01

    This volume is the first of a two-volume document that summarizes a joint project conducted by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the European Commission to assess uncertainties in the MACCS and COSYMA probabilistic accident consequence codes. These codes were developed primarily for estimating the risks presented by nuclear reactors based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. This document reports on an ongoing project to assess uncertainty in the MACCS and COSYMA calculations for the offsite consequences of radionuclide releases by hypothetical nuclear power plant accidents. A panel of sixteen experts was formed to compile credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for food chain variables that affect calculations of offsite consequences. The expert judgment elicitation procedure and its outcomes are described in these volumes. Other panels were formed to consider uncertainty in other aspects of the codes. Their results are described in companion reports. Volume 1 contains background information and a complete description of the joint consequence uncertainty study. Volume 2 contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures for both panels, (3) the rationales and results for the panels on soil and plant transfer and animal transfer, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses

  13. Analysis and management of risks experienced in tunnel construction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cagatay Pamukcu

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In this study, first of all, the definitions of "risk", "risk analysis", "risk assessment" and "risk management" were made to avoid any confusions about these terms and significance of risk analysis and management in engineering projects was emphasized. Then, both qualitative and quantitative risk analysis techniques were mentioned and within the scope of the study, Event Tree Analysis method was selected in order to analyze the risks regarding TBM (Tunnel Boring Machine operations in tunnel construction. After all hazards that would be encountered during tunnel construction by TBM method had been investigated, those hazards were undergoing a Preliminary Hazard Analysis to sort out and prioritize the risks with high scores. When the risk scores were taken into consideration, it was seen that the hazards with high risk scores could be classified into 4 groups which are excavation + support induced accidents, accidents stemming from geologic conditions, auxiliary works, and project contract. According to these four classified groups of initiating events, Event Tree Analysis was conducted by taking into care 4 countermeasures apart from each other. Finally, the quantitative and qualitative consequences of Event Tree Analyses, which were undertaken for all initiating events, were investigated and interpreted together by making comparisons and referring to previous studies.

  14. Sample volume and alignment analysis for an optical particle counter sizer, and other applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holve, D.J.; Davis, G.W.

    1985-01-01

    Optical methods for particle size distribution measurements in practical high temperature environments are approaching feasibility and offer significant advantages over conventional sampling methods. A key requirement of single particle counting techniques is the need to know features of the sample volume intensity distribution which in general are a function of the particle scattering properties and optical system geometry. In addition, the sample volume intensity distribution is sensitive to system alignment and thus calculations of alignment sensitivity are required for assessment of practical alignment tolerances. To this end, an analysis of sample volume characteristics for single particle counters in general has been developed. Results from the theory are compared with experimental measurements and shown to be in good agreement. A parametric sensitivity analysis is performed and a criterion for allowable optical misalignment is derived for conditions where beam steering caused by fluctuating refractive-index gradients is significant

  15. Meta-Analysis of Ultrafiltration versus Diuretics Treatment Option for Overload Volume Reduction in Patients with Acute Decompensated Heart Failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barkoudah, Ebrahim; Kodali, Sindhura; Okoroh, Juliet; Sethi, Rosh; Hulten, Edward; Suemoto, Claudia; Bittencourt, Marcio Sommer

    2015-05-01

    Although diuretics are mainly used for the treatment of acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF), inadequate responses and complications have led to the use of extracorporeal ultrafiltration (UF) as an alternative strategy for reducing volume overloads in patients with ADHF. The aim of our study is to perform meta-analysis of the results obtained from studies on extracorporeal venous ultrafiltration and compare them with those of standard diuretic treatment for overload volume reduction in acute decompensated heart failure. MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials databases were systematically searched using a pre‑specified criterion. Pooled estimates of outcomes after 48 h (weight change, serum creatinine level, and all-cause mortality) were computed using random effect models. Pooled weighted mean differences were calculated for weight loss and change in creatinine level, whereas a pooled risk ratio was used for the analysis of binary all-cause mortality outcome. A total of nine studies, involving 613 patients, met the eligibility criteria. The mean weight loss in patients who underwent UF therapy was 1.78 kg [95% Confidence Interval (CI): -2.65 to -0.91 kg; p diuretic therapy. The post-intervention creatinine level, however, was not significantly different (mean change = -0.25 mg/dL; 95% CI: -0.56 to 0.06 mg/dL; p = 0.112). The risk of all-cause mortality persisted in patients treated with UF compared with patients treated with standard diuretics (Pooled RR = 1.00; 95% CI: 0.64-1.56; p = 0.993). Compared with standard diuretic therapy, UF treatment for overload volume reduction in individuals suffering from ADHF, resulted in significant reduction of body weight within 48 h. However, no significant decrease of serum creatinine level or reduction of all-cause mortality was observed.

  16. Assessment and uncertainty analysis of groundwater risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Fawen; Zhu, Jingzhao; Deng, Xiyuan; Zhao, Yong; Li, Shaofei

    2018-01-01

    Groundwater with relatively stable quantity and quality is commonly used by human being. However, as the over-mining of groundwater, problems such as groundwater funnel, land subsidence and salt water intrusion have emerged. In order to avoid further deterioration of hydrogeological problems in over-mining regions, it is necessary to conduct the assessment of groundwater risk. In this paper, risks of shallow and deep groundwater in the water intake area of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project in Tianjin, China, were evaluated. Firstly, two sets of four-level evaluation index system were constructed based on the different characteristics of shallow and deep groundwater. Secondly, based on the normalized factor values and the synthetic weights, the risk values of shallow and deep groundwater were calculated. Lastly, the uncertainty of groundwater risk assessment was analyzed by indicator kriging method. The results meet the decision maker's demand for risk information, and overcome previous risk assessment results expressed in the form of deterministic point estimations, which ignore the uncertainty of risk assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Method for environmental risk analysis (MIRA) revision 2007

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-04-01

    OLF's instruction manual for carrying out environmental risk analyses provides a united approach and a common framework for environmental risk assessments. This is based on the best information available. The manual implies standardizations of a series of parameters, input data and partial analyses that are included in the environmental risk analysis. Environmental risk analyses carried out according to the MIRA method will thus be comparable between fields and between companies. In this revision an update of the text in accordance with today's practice for environmental risk analyses and prevailing regulations is emphasized. Moreover, method adjustments for especially protected beach habitats have been introduced, as well as a general method for estimating environmental risk concerning fish. Emphasis has also been put on improving environmental risk analysis' possibilities to contribute to a better management of environmental risk in the companies (ml)

  18. Integrated risk analysis of global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shlyakhter, Alexander; Wilson, Richard; Valverde A, L.J. Jr.

    1995-01-01

    This paper discusses several factors that should be considered in integrated risk analyses of global climate change. We begin by describing how the problem of global climate change can be subdivided into largely independent parts that can be linked together in an analytically tractable fashion. Uncertainty plays a central role in integrated risk analyses of global climate change. Accordingly, we consider various aspects of uncertainty as they relate to the climate change problem. We also consider the impacts of these uncertainties on various risk management issues, such as sequential decision strategies, value of information, and problems of interregional and intergenerational equity. (author)

  19. Risk analysis with regard to nuclear engineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birkhofer, A.

    1980-01-01

    The author discusses the following questions: why are risk analyses elaborated. How are they carried out and which problems may arise. Completeness problem, data, human factors, common-mode-failures, accident simulation. To give an idea of the applicability of the results of risk analyses the author deals with systems comparison and system optimization, maintenance and testing strategies, incidents and the course of accidents that have to be considered in designing technical safety measures for nuclear power plants. Finally, the author tries to enter into questions that might arise due to the effects risk analyses may create in the general public. (HSCH) [de

  20. Methodology for risk analysis of nuclear installations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Senne Junior, Murillo; Jordao, Elizabete

    2002-01-01

    Both the licensing standards for general uses in nuclear facilities and the specific ones require a risk assessment during their licensing processes. The risk assessment is carried out through the estimation of both probability of the occurrence of the accident, and their magnitudes. This is a complex task because the great deal of potential hazardous events that can occur in nuclear facilities difficult the statement of the accident scenarios. There are also many available techniques to identify the potential accidents, estimate their probabilities, and evaluate their magnitudes. In this paper is presented a new methodology that systematizes the risk assessment process, and orders the accomplishment of their several steps. (author)

  1. EC Transmission Line Risk Identification and Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bigelow, Tim S [ORNL

    2012-04-01

    The purpose of this document is to assist in evaluating and planning for the cost, schedule, and technical project risks associated with the delivery and operation of the EC (Electron cyclotron) transmission line system. In general, the major risks that are anticipated to be encountered during the project delivery phase associated with the implementation of the Procurement Arrangement for the EC transmission line system are associated with: (1) Undefined or changing requirements (e.g., functional or regulatory requirements) (2) Underperformance of prototype, first unit, or production components during testing (3) Unavailability of qualified vendors for critical components Technical risks associated with the design and operation of the system are also identified.

  2. Risk Analysis for Unintentional Slide Deployment During Airline Operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayra, Eduardo S; Insua, David Ríos; Castellanos, María Eugenia; Larbi, Lydia

    2015-09-01

    We present a risk analysis undertaken to mitigate problems in relation to the unintended deployment of slides under normal operations within a commercial airline. This type of incident entails relevant costs for the airline industry. After assessing the likelihood and severity of its consequences, we conclude that such risks need to be managed. We then evaluate the effectiveness of various countermeasures, describing and justifying the chosen ones. We also discuss several issues faced when implementing and communicating the proposed measures, thus fully illustrating the risk analysis process. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  3. Comparision between Brain Atrophy and Subdural Volume to Predict Chronic Subdural Hematoma: Volumetric CT Imaging Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ju, Min-Wook; Kim, Seon-Hwan; Kwon, Hyon-Jo; Choi, Seung-Won; Koh, Hyeon-Song; Youm, Jin-Young; Song, Shi-Hun

    2015-10-01

    Brain atrophy and subdural hygroma were well known factors that enlarge the subdural space, which induced formation of chronic subdural hematoma (CSDH). Thus, we identified the subdural volume that could be used to predict the rate of future CSDH after head trauma using a computed tomography (CT) volumetric analysis. A single institution case-control study was conducted involving 1,186 patients who visited our hospital after head trauma from January 1, 2010 to December 31, 2014. Fifty-one patients with delayed CSDH were identified, and 50 patients with age and sex matched for control. Intracranial volume (ICV), the brain parenchyme, and the subdural space were segmented using CT image-based software. To adjust for variations in head size, volume ratios were assessed as a percentage of ICV [brain volume index (BVI), subdural volume index (SVI)]. The maximum depth of the subdural space on both sides was used to estimate the SVI. Before adjusting for cranium size, brain volume tended to be smaller, and subdural space volume was significantly larger in the CSDH group (p=0.138, p=0.021, respectively). The BVI and SVI were significantly different (p=0.003, p=0.001, respectively). SVI [area under the curve (AUC), 77.3%; p=0.008] was a more reliable technique for predicting CSDH than BVI (AUC, 68.1%; p=0.001). Bilateral subdural depth (sum of subdural depth on both sides) increased linearly with SVI (pSubdural space volume was significantly larger in CSDH groups. SVI was a more reliable technique for predicting CSDH. Bilateral subdural depth was useful to measure SVI.

  4. Assessment report on NRP sub-theme 'Risk Analysis'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Biesiot, W.; Hendrickx, L.; Olsthoorn, A.A.

    1995-01-01

    An overview and assessment are presented of the three research projects carried out under NRP funding that concern risk-related topics: (1) The risks of nonlinear climate changes, (2) Socio-economic and policy aspects of changes in incidence and intensity of extreme (weather) events, and (3) Characterizing the risks: a comparative analysis of the risks of global warming and of relevant policy strategies. 1 tab., 6 refs

  5. Approach for seismic risk analysis for CANDU plants in Korea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, B-S; Kim, T; Kang, S-K [Korea Power Engineering Co., Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Hong, S-Y; Roh, S-R [Korea Electric Power Corp., Taejon (Korea, Republic of). Research Centre

    1996-12-31

    A seismic risk analysis for CANDU type plants has never been performed. The study presented here suggested that the approach generally applied to LWR type plants could lead to unacceptable result, if directly applied to CANDU plants. This paper presents a modified approach for the seismic risk analysis of CANDU plants. (author). 5 refs., 2 tabs., 2 figs.

  6. Geotechnical Analysis Report for July 2004 - June 2005, Volume 2, Supporting Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Washington TRU Solutions LLC

    2006-03-20

    This report is a compilation of geotechnical data presented as plots for each active instrument installed in the underground at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) through June 30, 2005. A summary of the geotechnical analyses that were performed using the enclosed data is provided in Volume 1 of the Geotechnical Analysis Report (GAR).

  7. Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Geotechnical Analysis Report for July 2005 - June 2006, Volume 2, Supporting Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Washington TRU Solutions LLC

    2007-03-25

    This report is a compilation of geotechnical data presented as plots for each active instrument installed in the underground at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) through June 30, 2006. A summary of the geotechnical analyses that were performed using the enclosed data is provided in Volume 1 of the Geotechnical Analysis Report (GAR).

  8. PRT Impact Study Pre-PRT Phase : Volume 1. Travel Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1976-03-01

    Part of a three-volume work, this report describes the analysis performed on travel data collected for the Pre-PRT Impact Study. The data analyzed consist of travel behavior, travel patterns, model utilization and travel costs of various modes of tra...

  9. SOLVENT-BASED TO WATERBASED ADHESIVE-COATED SUBSTRATE RETROFIT - VOLUME I: COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    This volume represents the analysis of case study facilities' experience with waterbased adhesive use and retrofit requirements. (NOTE: The coated and laminated substrate manufacturing industry was selected as part of NRMRL'S support of the 33/50 Program because of its significan...

  10. The evaluation of voiding patterns. An analysis of frequency-volume charts and symptom scores

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haarst, E.P. van

    2015-01-01

    This thesis is an analysis of frequency-volume charts (FVCs) and International Prostate Symptom Scores (IPSS) and their relations, based on 2 large databases: one with 24-hour FVCs of 1152 volunteers of all adult age groups without urological complaints, and one with 7-day FVCs of 378 urological

  11. Physiological adaptation of maternal plasma volume during pregnancy: a systematic review and meta-analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haas, S.; Ghossein-Doha, C.; Kuijk, S.M. van; Drongelen, J. van; Spaanderman, M.E.A.

    2017-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To describe the physiological pattern of gestational plasma volume adjustments in normal singleton pregnancy and compare this with the pattern in pregnancies complicated by pregnancy-induced hypertension, pre-eclampsia or fetal growth restriction. METHODS: We performed a meta-analysis of

  12. Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Geotechnical Analysis Report for July 2005 - June 2006, Volume 2, Supporting Data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-01-01

    This report is a compilation of geotechnical data presented as plots for each active instrument installed in the underground at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) through June 30, 2006. A summary of the geotechnical analyses that were performed using the enclosed data is provided in Volume 1 of the Geotechnical Analysis Report (GAR).

  13. Geotechnical Analysis Report for July 2004 - June 2005, Volume 2, Supporting Data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-01-01

    This report is a compilation of geotechnical data presented as plots for each active instrument installed in the underground at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) through June 30, 2005. A summary of the geotechnical analyses that were performed using the enclosed data is provided in Volume 1 of the Geotechnical Analysis Report (GAR).

  14. Doppler sonography of diabetic feet: Quantitative analysis of blood flow volume

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seo, Young Lan; Kim, Ho Chul; Choi, Chul Soon; Yoon, Dae Young; Han, Dae Hee; Moon, Jeung Hee; Bae, Sang Hoon

    2002-01-01

    To analyze Doppler sonographic findings of diabetic feet by estimating the quantitative blood flow volume and by analyzing waveform on Doppler. Doppler sonography was performed in thirty four patients (10 diabetic patients with foot ulceration, 14 diabetic patients without ulceration and 10 normal patients as the normal control group) to measure the flow volume of the arteries of the lower extremities (posterior and anterior tibial arteries, and distal femoral artery. Analysis of doppler waveforms was also done to evaluate the nature of the changed blood flow volume of diabetic patients, and the waveforms were classified into triphasic, biphasic-1, biphasic-2 and monophasic patterns. Flow volume of arteries in diabetic patients with foot ulceration was increased witha statistical significance when compared to that of diabetes patients without foot ulceration of that of normal control group (P<0.05). Analysis of Doppler waveform revealed that the frequency of biphasic-2 pattern was significantly higher in diabetic patients than in normal control group(p<0.05). Doppler sonography in diabetic feet showed increased flow volume and biphasic Doppler waveform, and these findings suggest neuropathy rather than ischemic changes in diabetic feet.

  15. Doppler sonography of diabetic feet: Quantitative analysis of blood flow volume

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seo, Young Lan; Kim, Ho Chul; Choi, Chul Soon; Yoon, Dae Young; Han, Dae Hee; Moon, Jeung Hee; Bae, Sang Hoon [Hallym University College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2002-09-15

    To analyze Doppler sonographic findings of diabetic feet by estimating the quantitative blood flow volume and by analyzing waveform on Doppler. Doppler sonography was performed in thirty four patients (10 diabetic patients with foot ulceration, 14 diabetic patients without ulceration and 10 normal patients as the normal control group) to measure the flow volume of the arteries of the lower extremities (posterior and anterior tibial arteries, and distal femoral artery. Analysis of doppler waveforms was also done to evaluate the nature of the changed blood flow volume of diabetic patients, and the waveforms were classified into triphasic, biphasic-1, biphasic-2 and monophasic patterns. Flow volume of arteries in diabetic patients with foot ulceration was increased witha statistical significance when compared to that of diabetes patients without foot ulceration of that of normal control group (P<0.05). Analysis of Doppler waveform revealed that the frequency of biphasic-2 pattern was significantly higher in diabetic patients than in normal control group(p<0.05). Doppler sonography in diabetic feet showed increased flow volume and biphasic Doppler waveform, and these findings suggest neuropathy rather than ischemic changes in diabetic feet.

  16. Operational Risk Management A Practical Approach to Intelligent Data Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Kenett, Ron

    2010-01-01

    The book will introduce modern Operational Risk (OpR) Management and illustrates the various sources of OpR assessment and OpR mitigation. This book discusses how various data sources can be integrated and analyzed and how OpR is synergetic to other risk management activities such as Financial Risk Management and Internationalization. The topics will include state of the art technology such as semantic analysis, ontology engineering, data mining and statistical analysis.

  17. Training volume and body composition as risk factors for developing jumper's knee among young elite volleyball players.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Visnes, H; Bahr, R

    2013-10-01

    Training volume and body composition have been suggested as risk factors for jumper's knee among athletic youth, but research is lacking. The aim of this 4-year prospective cohort study was to examine the relationship between training and competition load, body composition, and risk for developing jumper's knee. Participants are elite volleyball players, aged 16-18 years. Training and competition load was recorded continuously and body composition semiannually. Jumper's knee was diagnosed on a standardized clinical examination. We recruited 141 healthy students (69 males and 72 females), and 28 developed jumper's knee (22 boys and six girls). In a multivariate analyses, boys had three to four times higher risk compared with girls. Volleyball training had an odds ratio (OR) 1.72 (1.18-2.53) for every extra hour trained, and match exposure was the strongest sports-related predictor for developing jumper's knee with an OR of 3.88 (1.80-8.40) for every extra set played per week. We did not detect any significant differences between the groups in body composition at the time of inclusion or in the change of body composition during the study period. Conclusion, male gender, a high volume of volleyball training and match exposure were risk factors for developing jumper's knee. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  18. Living PRAs [probabilistic risk analysis] made easier with IRRAS [Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russell, K.D.; Sattison, M.B.; Rasmuson, D.M.

    1989-01-01

    The Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) is an integrated PRA software tool that gives the user the ability to create and analyze fault trees and accident sequences using an IBM-compatible microcomputer. This program provides functions that range from graphical fault tree and event tree construction to cut set generation and quantification. IRRAS contains all the capabilities and functions required to create, modify, reduce, and analyze event tree and fault tree models used in the analysis of complex systems and processes. IRRAS uses advanced graphic and analytical techniques to achieve the greatest possible realization of the potential of the microcomputer. When the needs of the user exceed this potential, IRRAS can call upon the power of the mainframe computer. The role of the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory if the IRRAS program is that of software developer and interface to the user community. Version 1.0 of the IRRAS program was released in February 1987 to prove the concept of performing this kind of analysis on microcomputers. This version contained many of the basic features needed for fault tree analysis and was received very well by the PRA community. Since the release of Version 1.0, many user comments and enhancements have been incorporated into the program providing a much more powerful and user-friendly system. This version is designated ''IRRAS 2.0''. Version 3.0 will contain all of the features required for efficient event tree and fault tree construction and analysis. 5 refs., 26 figs

  19. Analysis of the high water wave volume for the Sava River near Zagreb

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trninic, Dusan

    2010-05-01

    The paper analyses volumes of the Sava River high water waves near Zagreb during the period: 1926-2008 (N = 83 years), which is needed for more efficient control of high and flood waters. The primary Sava flood control structures in the City of Zagreb are dikes built on both riverbanks, and the Odra Relief Canal with lateral spillway upstream from the City of Zagreb. Intensive morphological changes in the greater Sava area near Zagreb, and anthropological and climate variations and changes at the Sava catchment up to the Zagreb area require detailed analysis of the water wave characteristics. In one analysis, maximum annual volumes are calculated for high water waves with constant duration of: 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 and 60 days. Such calculations encompass total quantity of water (basic and surface runoff). The log Pearson III distribution is adapted for this series of maximum annual volumes. Based on the results obtained, the interrelations are established between the wave volume as function of duration and occurrence probability. In addition to the analysis of maximum volumes of constant duration, it is interesting to carry out the analyses of maximum volume in excess of the reference discharge since it is very important for the flood control. To determine the reference discharges, a discharge of specific duration is used from an average discharge duration curve. The adopted reference discharges have durations of 50, 40, 30, 20 and 10%. Like in the previous case, log Pearson III distribution is adapted to the maximum wave data series. For reference discharge Q = 604 m3/s (duration 10%), a linear trend is calculated of maximum annual volumes exceeding the reference discharge for the Sava near Zagreb during the analyzed period. The analysis results show a significant decrease trend. A similar analysis is carried out for the following three reference discharges: regular flood control measures at the Sava near Zagreb, which are proclaimed when the water level is 350 cm

  20. Big Data Risk Analysis for Rail Safety?

    OpenAIRE

    Van Gulijk, Coen; Hughes, Peter; Figueres-Esteban, Miguel; Dacre, Marcus; Harrison, Chris; HUD; RSSB

    2015-01-01

    Computer scientists believe that the enormous amounts of data in the internet will unchain a management revolution of uncanny proportions. Yet, to date, the potential benefit of this revolution is scantily investigated for safety and risk management. This paper gives a brief overview of a research programme that investigates how the new internet-driven data-revolution could benefit safety and risk management for railway safety in the UK. The paper gives a brief overview the current activities...

  1. Hippocampal subfield volumes: Age, vascular risk, and correlation with associative memory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yee Lee eShing

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Aging and age-related diseases have negative impact on the hippocampus (HC, which is crucial for such age-sensitive functions as memory formation, maintenance, and retrieval. We examined age differences in hippocampal subfield volumes in 10 younger and 19 older adults, and association of those volumes with memory performance in the older participants. We manually measured volumes of HC regions CA1 and CA2 (CA1-2, sectors CA3 and CA4 plus dentate gyrus (CA3-4/DG, subiculum and the entorhinal cortex using a contrast-optimized high-resolution PD-weighted MRI sequence. Although, as in previous reports, the volume of one region (CA1-2 was larger in the young, the difference was due to the presence of hypertensive subjects among the older adults. Among older participants, increased false alarm (FA rate in an associative recognition memory task was linked to reduced CA3-4/DG volume. We discuss the role of the dentate gyrus in pattern separation and the formation of discrete memory representations.

  2. Integrating Household Risk Mitigation Behavior in Flood Risk Analysis: An Agent-Based Model Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haer, Toon; Botzen, W J Wouter; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen C J H

    2017-10-01

    Recent studies showed that climate change and socioeconomic trends are expected to increase flood risks in many regions. However, in these studies, human behavior is commonly assumed to be constant, which neglects interaction and feedback loops between human and environmental systems. This neglect of human adaptation leads to a misrepresentation of flood risk. This article presents an agent-based model that incorporates human decision making in flood risk analysis. In particular, household investments in loss-reducing measures are examined under three economic decision models: (1) expected utility theory, which is the traditional economic model of rational agents; (2) prospect theory, which takes account of bounded rationality; and (3) a prospect theory model, which accounts for changing risk perceptions and social interactions through a process of Bayesian updating. We show that neglecting human behavior in flood risk assessment studies can result in a considerable misestimation of future flood risk, which is in our case study an overestimation of a factor two. Furthermore, we show how behavior models can support flood risk analysis under different behavioral assumptions, illustrating the need to include the dynamic adaptive human behavior of, for instance, households, insurers, and governments. The method presented here provides a solid basis for exploring human behavior and the resulting flood risk with respect to low-probability/high-impact risks. © 2016 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

  3. Risk management study for the retired Hanford Site facilities: Qualitative risk evaluation for the retired Hanford Site facilities. Volume 3

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coles, G.A.; Shultz, M.V.; Taylor, W.E.

    1993-09-01

    This document provides a risk evaluation of the 100 and 200 Area retired, surplus facilities on the Hanford Site. Also included are the related data that were compiled by the risk evaluation team during investigations performed on the facilities. Results are the product of a major effort performed in fiscal year 1993 to produce qualitative information that characterizes certain risks associated with these facilities. The retired facilities investigated for this evaluation are located in the 100 and 200 Areas of the 1,450-km{sup 2} (570-mi{sup 2}) Hanford Site. The Hanford Site is a semiarid tract of land in southeastern Washington State. The nearest population center is Richland, Washington, (population 32,000) 30-km (20 mi) southeast of the 200 Area. During walkdown investigations of these facilities, data on real and potential hazards that threatened human health or safety or created potential environmental release issues were identified by the risk evaluation team. Using these findings, the team categorized the identified hazards by facility and evaluated the risk associated with each hazard. The factors contributing to each risk, and the consequence and likelihood of harm associated with each hazard also are included in this evaluation.

  4. Project Portfolio Risk Identification and Analysis, Considering Project Risk Interactions and Using Bayesian Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Foroogh Ghasemi

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available An organization’s strategic objectives are accomplished through portfolios. However, the materialization of portfolio risks may affect a portfolio’s sustainable success and the achievement of those objectives. Moreover, project interdependencies and cause–effect relationships between risks create complexity for portfolio risk analysis. This paper presents a model using Bayesian network (BN methodology for modeling and analyzing portfolio risks. To develop this model, first, portfolio-level risks and risks caused by project interdependencies are identified. Then, based on their cause–effect relationships all portfolio risks are organized in a BN. Conditional probability distributions for this network are specified and the Bayesian networks method is used to estimate the probability of portfolio risk. This model was applied to a portfolio of a construction company located in Iran and proved effective in analyzing portfolio risk probability. Furthermore, the model provided valuable information for selecting a portfolio’s projects and making strategic decisions.

  5. Single-shell tank interim stabilization risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Basche, A.D.

    1998-01-01

    The purpose of the Single-Shell Tank (SST) Interim Stabilization Risk Analysis is to provide a cost and schedule risk analysis of HNF-2358, Rev. 1, Single-Shell Tank Interim Stabilization Project Plan (Project Plan) (Ross et al. 1998). The analysis compares the required cost profile by fiscal year (Section 4.2) and revised schedule completion date (Section 4.5) to the Project Plan. The analysis also evaluates the executability of the Project Plan and recommends a path forward for risk mitigation

  6. VIPRE-01: a thermal-hydraulic analysis code for reactor cores. Volume 2. User's manual

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cuta, J.M.; Koontz, A.S.; Stewart, C.W.; Montgomery, S.D.

    1983-04-01

    VIPRE (Versatile Internals and Component Program for Reactors; EPRI) has been developed for nuclear power utility thermal-hydraulic analysis applications. It is designed to help evaluate nuclear energy reactor core safety limits including minimum departure from nucleate boiling ratio (MDNBR), critical power ratio (CPR), fuel and clad temperatures, and coolant state in normal operation and assumed accident conditions. This volume (Volume 2: User's Manual) describes the input requirements of VIPRE and its auxiliary programs, SPECSET, ASP and DECCON, and lists the input instructions for each code

  7. Organizational analysis and safety for utilities with nuclear power plants: an organizational overview. Volume 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Osborn, R.N.; Olson, J.; Sommers, P.E.; McLaughlin, S.D.; Jackson, M.S.; Scott, W.G.; Connor, P.E.

    1983-08-01

    This two-volume report presents the results of initial research on the feasibility of applying organizational factors in nuclear power plant (NPP) safety assessment. A model is introduced for the purposes of organizing the literature review and showing key relationships among identified organizational factors and nuclear power plant safety. Volume I of this report contains an overview of the literature, a discussion of available safety indicators, and a series of recommendations for more systematically incorporating organizational analysis into investigations of nuclear power plant safety

  8. Quantitative analysis of CT brain images: a statistical model incorporating partial volume and beam hardening effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McLoughlin, R.F.; Ryan, M.V.; Heuston, P.M.; McCoy, C.T.; Masterson, J.B.

    1992-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to construct and evaluate a statistical model for the quantitative analysis of computed tomographic brain images. Data were derived from standard sections in 34 normal studies. A model representing the intercranial pure tissue and partial volume areas, with allowance for beam hardening, was developed. The average percentage error in estimation of areas, derived from phantom tests using the model, was 28.47%. We conclude that our model is not sufficiently accurate to be of clinical use, even though allowance was made for partial volume and beam hardening effects. (author)

  9. Risk analysis of Finnish peacekeeping in Kosovo.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehtomäki, Kyösti; Pääkkönen, Rauno J; Rantanen, Jorma

    2005-04-01

    The research team interviewed over 90 Finnish battalion members in Kosovo, visited 22 units or posts, registered its observations, and made any necessary measurements. Key persons were asked to list the most important risks for occupational safety and health in their area of responsibility. Altogether, 106 accidents and 40 cases of disease resulted in compensation claims in 2000. The risks to the peacekeeping force were about twice those of the permanent staff of military trainees in Finland. Altogether, 21 accidents or cases of disease resulted in sick leave for at least 3 months after service. One permanent injury resulted from an explosion. Biological, chemical, and physical factors caused 8 to 9 occupational illnesses each. Traffic accidents, operational factors, and munitions and mines were evaluated to be the three most important risk factors, followed by occupational hygiene, living conditions (mold, fungi, dust), and general hygiene. Possible fatal risks, such as traffic accidents and munitions and explosives, received a high ranking in both the subjective and the objective evaluations. One permanent injury resulted from an explosion, and two traffic accidents involved a fatality, although not of a peacekeeper. The reduction of sports and military training accidents, risk-control programs, and, for some tasks, better personal protection is considered a development challenge for the near future.

  10. Pulsed Direct Current Electrospray: Enabling Systematic Analysis of Small Volume Sample by Boosting Sample Economy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Zhenwei; Xiong, Xingchuang; Guo, Chengan; Si, Xingyu; Zhao, Yaoyao; He, Muyi; Yang, Chengdui; Xu, Wei; Tang, Fei; Fang, Xiang; Zhang, Sichun; Zhang, Xinrong

    2015-11-17

    We had developed pulsed direct current electrospray ionization mass spectrometry (pulsed-dc-ESI-MS) for systematically profiling and determining components in small volume sample. Pulsed-dc-ESI utilized constant high voltage to induce the generation of single polarity pulsed electrospray remotely. This method had significantly boosted the sample economy, so as to obtain several minutes MS signal duration from merely picoliter volume sample. The elongated MS signal duration enable us to collect abundant MS(2) information on interested components in a small volume sample for systematical analysis. This method had been successfully applied for single cell metabolomics analysis. We had obtained 2-D profile of metabolites (including exact mass and MS(2) data) from single plant and mammalian cell, concerning 1034 components and 656 components for Allium cepa and HeLa cells, respectively. Further identification had found 162 compounds and 28 different modification groups of 141 saccharides in a single Allium cepa cell, indicating pulsed-dc-ESI a powerful tool for small volume sample systematical analysis.

  11. Improving the clinical correlation of multiple sclerosis black hole volume change by paired-scan analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tam, Roger C; Traboulsee, Anthony; Riddehough, Andrew; Li, David K B

    2012-01-01

    The change in T 1-hypointense lesion ("black hole") volume is an important marker of pathological progression in multiple sclerosis (MS). Black hole boundaries often have low contrast and are difficult to determine accurately and most (semi-)automated segmentation methods first compute the T 2-hyperintense lesions, which are a superset of the black holes and are typically more distinct, to form a search space for the T 1w lesions. Two main potential sources of measurement noise in longitudinal black hole volume computation are partial volume and variability in the T 2w lesion segmentation. A paired analysis approach is proposed herein that uses registration to equalize partial volume and lesion mask processing to combine T 2w lesion segmentations across time. The scans of 247 MS patients are used to compare a selected black hole computation method with an enhanced version incorporating paired analysis, using rank correlation to a clinical variable (MS functional composite) as the primary outcome measure. The comparison is done at nine different levels of intensity as a previous study suggests that darker black holes may yield stronger correlations. The results demonstrate that paired analysis can strongly improve longitudinal correlation (from -0.148 to -0.303 in this sample) and may produce segmentations that are more sensitive to clinically relevant changes.

  12. Dose-volume analysis for quality assurance of interstitial brachytherapy for breast cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vicini, Frank A.; Kestin, Larry L.; Edmundson, Gregory K.; Jaffray, David A.; Wong, John W.; Kini, Vijay R.; Chen, Peter Y.; Martinez, Alvaro A.

    1999-01-01

    Purpose/Objective: The use of brachytherapy in the management of breast cancer has increased significantly over the past several years. Unfortunately, few techniques have been developed to compare dosimetric quality and target volume coverage concurrently. We present a new method of implant evaluation that incorporates computed tomography-based three-dimensional (3D) dose-volume analysis with traditional measures of brachytherapy quality. Analyses performed in this fashion will be needed to ultimately assist in determining the efficacy of breast implants. Methods and Materials: Since March of 1993, brachytherapy has been used as the sole radiation modality after lumpectomy in selected protocol patients with early-stage breast cancer treated with breast-conserving therapy. Eight patients treated with high-dose-rate (HDR) brachytherapy who had surgical clips outlining the lumpectomy cavity and underwent computed tomography (CT) scanning after implant placement were selected for this study. For each patient, the postimplant CT dataset was transferred to a 3D treatment planning system. The lumpectomy cavity, target volume (lumpectomy cavity plus a 1-cm margin), and entire breast were outlined on each axial slice. Once all volumes were entered, the programmed HDR brachytherapy source positions and dwell times were imported into the 3D planning system. Using the tools provided by the 3D planning system, the implant dataset was then registered to the visible implant template in the CT dataset. The distribution of the implant dose was analyzed with respect to defined volumes via dose-volume histograms (DVH). Isodose surfaces, the dose homogeneity index, and dosimetric coverage of the defined volumes were calculated and contrasted. All patients received 32 Gy to the entire implanted volume in 8 fractions of 4 Gy over 4 days. Results: Three-plane implants were used for 7 patients and a two-plane implant for 1 patient. The median number of needles per implant was 16.5 (range

  13. Risk Analysis for the Different Consolidation Proposals

    CERN Document Server

    Strait, J

    2009-01-01

    In parallel with the repairs in sector 34, improvements are planned to a number of systems, to allow safe detection of faults similar to the one which caused the incident of 19 September, and to limit the damage should a similar incident nonetheless occur. These include improved bus and quench detection systems, improved pressure relief for the insulating and beam vacuum systems, and improved anchoring of the SSS to the tunnel floor. Not all of the planned mitigations, however, may be fully implemented before the restart of the LHC in 2009. I will review the potential benefits of partial or complete implementation of each of the planned improvements, individually or together with others, and conversely the potential risks (consequences) of delayed implementation. I will also review the risks that remain even after the planned consolidation is complete. Considering all proposals and the different risks, I will comment on what would be the best strategy for consolidation, and on the strategy for operations unde...

  14. The Total Risk Analysis of Large Dams under Flood Hazards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Chen

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Dams and reservoirs are useful systems in water conservancy projects; however, they also pose a high-risk potential for large downstream areas. Flood, as the driving force of dam overtopping, is the main cause of dam failure. Dam floods and their risks are of interest to researchers and managers. In hydraulic engineering, there is a growing tendency to evaluate dam flood risk based on statistical and probabilistic methods that are unsuitable for the situations with rare historical data or low flood probability, so a more reasonable dam flood risk analysis method with fewer application restrictions is needed. Therefore, different from previous studies, this study develops a flood risk analysis method for large dams based on the concept of total risk factor (TRF used initially in dam seismic risk analysis. The proposed method is not affected by the adequacy of historical data or the low probability of flood and is capable of analyzing the dam structure influence, the flood vulnerability of the dam site, and downstream risk as well as estimating the TRF of each dam and assigning corresponding risk classes to each dam. Application to large dams in the Dadu River Basin, Southwestern China, demonstrates that the proposed method provides quick risk estimation and comparison, which can help local management officials perform more detailed dam safety evaluations for useful risk management information.

  15. Risk Analysis for Environmental Health Triage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bogen, K T

    2005-01-01

    The Homeland Security Act mandates development of a national, risk-based system to support planning for, response to and recovery from emergency situations involving large-scale toxic exposures. To prepare for and manage consequences effectively, planners and responders need not only to identify zones of potentially elevated individual risk, but also to predict expected casualties. Emergency response support systems now define ''consequences'' by mapping areas in which toxic chemical concentrations do or may exceed Acute Exposure Guideline Levels (AEGLs) or similar guidelines. However, because AEGLs do not estimate expected risks, current unqualified claims that such maps support consequence management are misleading. Intentionally protective, AEGLs incorporate various safety/uncertainty factors depending on scope and quality of chemical-specific toxicity data. Some of these factors are irrelevant, and others need to be modified, whenever resource constraints or exposure-scenario complexities require responders to make critical trade-off (triage) decisions in order to minimize expected casualties. AEGL-exceedance zones cannot consistently be aggregated, compared, or used to calculate expected casualties, and so may seriously misguide emergency response triage decisions. Methods and tools well established and readily available to support environmental health protection are not yet developed for chemically related environmental health triage. Effective triage decisions involving chemical risks require a new assessment approach that focuses on best estimates of likely casualties, rather than on upper plausible bounds of individual risk. If risk-based consequence management is to become a reality, federal agencies tasked with supporting emergency response must actively coordinate to foster new methods that can support effective environmental health triage

  16. Risk analysis: divergent models and convergent interpretations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carnes, B. A.; Gavrilova, N.

    2001-01-01

    Material presented at a NASA-sponsored workshop on risk models for exposure conditions relevant to prolonged space flight are described in this paper. Analyses used mortality data from experiments conducted at Argonne National Laboratory on the long-term effects of external whole-body irradiation on B6CF1 mice by 60Co gamma rays and fission neutrons delivered as a single exposure or protracted over either 24 or 60 once-weekly exposures. The maximum dose considered was restricted to 1 Gy for neutrons and 10 Gy for gamma rays. Proportional hazard models were used to investigate the shape of the dose response at these lower doses for deaths caused by solid-tissue tumors and tumors of either connective or epithelial tissue origin. For protracted exposures, a significant mortality effect was detected at a neutron dose of 14 cGy and a gamma-ray dose of 3 Gy. For single exposures, radiation-induced mortality for neutrons also occurred within the range of 10-20 cGy, but dropped to 86 cGy for gamma rays. Plots of risk relative to control estimated for each observed dose gave a visual impression of nonlinearity for both neutrons and gamma rays. At least for solid-tissue tumors, male and female mortality was nearly identical for gamma-ray exposures, but mortality risks for females were higher than for males for neutron exposures. As expected, protracting the gamma-ray dose reduced mortality risks. Although curvature consistent with that observed visually could be detected by a model parameterized to detect curvature, a relative risk term containing only a simple term for total dose was usually sufficient to describe the dose response. Although detectable mortality for the three pathology end points considered typically occurred at the same level of dose, the highest risks were almost always associated with deaths caused by tumors of epithelial tissue origin.

  17. Stress Analysis in Managing the Region’s Budget Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalya Pavlovna Pazdnikova

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The article addresses the implementation of budget risk management methods into the practices of governmental authorities. Drawing on the example of a particular region the article aims to demonstrate the possible methods of budget risk management. The authors refine the existing approaches to the notion of risk in its relation to budget system by introducing the notion of “budget risk.” Here the focus is the risk of default of budget spending in full which causes underfunding of territories and decrease in quality of life in the region. The authors have particularized the classification of budget risks and grouped together the criteria and factors which significantly influence the assessment and choice of method to manage budget risks. They hypothesize that budget risk is a financial risk. Therefore, the methods of financial risks management can be applied to budget risks management. The authors suggest a methodological approach to risk assessment based on correlation and regression analysis of program financing. The application of Kendall rank correlation coefficient allowed to assess the efficiency of budget spending on the implementation of state programs in Perm Krai. Two clusters — “Nature management and infrastructure” and “Public security” — turned out to be in the zone of high budget risk. The method of stress analysis, which consists in calculating Value at Risk (VaR, was applied to budget risks that in terms of probability are classified as critical. In order to assess risk as probability rate, the amount of Perm Krai deficit budget was calculated as induced variable from budget revenues and spending. The results demonstrate that contemporary management of public resources in the regions calls for the implementation of new management tools of higher quality and budget risk management is one of them.

  18. Association Between Treatment at a High-Volume Facility and Improved Survival for Radiation-Treated Men With High-Risk Prostate Cancer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Yu-Wei [Department of Radiation Oncology, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute and Brigham and Women' s Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Mahal, Brandon A. [Department of Medicine, Brigham and Women' s Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Muralidhar, Vinayak [Department of Radiation Oncology, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute and Brigham and Women' s Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Nezolosky, Michelle [Department of Radiation Oncology, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute and Brigham and Women' s Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Beard, Clair J. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute and Brigham and Women' s Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Den, Robert B. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Sidney Kimmel Medical College at Thomas Jefferson University, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Feng, Felix Y. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Michigan Medical Center, Ann Arbor, Michigan (United States); Hoffman, Karen E. [Department of Radiation Oncology, the University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Martin, Neil E.; Orio, Peter F. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute and Brigham and Women' s Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Nguyen, Paul L., E-mail: pnguyen@LROC.harvard.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute and Brigham and Women' s Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts (United States)

    2016-03-15

    Purpose: Although the association between higher hospital volume and improved outcomes has been well-documented in surgery, there is little data about whether this effect exists for radiation-treated patients. We investigated whether treatment at a radiation facility that treats a high volume of prostate cancer patients is associated with improved survival for men with high-risk prostate cancer. Methods and Materials: We used the National Cancer Database (NCDB) to identity patients diagnosed with prostate cancer from 2004 to 2006. The radiation case volume (RCV) of each hospital was based on its number of radiation-treated prostate cancer patients. We used propensity-score based analysis to compare the overall survival (OS) of high-risk prostate cancer patients in high versus low RCV hospitals. Primary endpoint is overall survival. Covariates adjusted for were tumor characteristics, sociodemographic factors, radiation type, and use of androgen deprivation therapy (ADT). Results: A total of 19,565 radiation-treated high-risk patients were identified. Median follow-up was 81.0 months (range: 1-108 months). When RCV was coded as a continuous variable, each increment of 100 radiation-managed patients was associated with improved OS (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR]: 0.97; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.95-0.98; P<.0001) after adjusting for known confounders. For illustrative purposes, when RCV was dichotomized at the 80th percentile (43 patients/year), high RCV was associated with improved OS (7-year overall survival 76% vs 74%, log-rank test P=.0005; AHR: 0.91, 95% CI: 0.86-0.96, P=.0005). This association remained significant when RCV was dichotomized at 75th (37 patients/year), 90th (60 patients/year), and 95th (84 patients/year) percentiles but not the 50th (19 patients/year). Conclusions: Our results suggest that treatment at centers with higher prostate cancer radiation case volume is associated with improved OS for radiation-treated men with high-risk prostate

  19. Organizational analysis and safety for utilities with nuclear power plants: perspectives for organizational assessment. Volume 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Osborn, R.N.; Olson, J.; Sommers, P.E.

    1983-08-01

    This two-volume report presents the results of initial research on the feasibility of applying organizational factors in nuclear power plant (NPP) safety assessment. Volume 1 of this report contains an overview of the literature, a discussion of available safety indicators, and a series of recommendations for more systematically incorporating organizational analysis into investigations of nuclear power plant safety. The six chapters of this volume discuss the major elements in our general approach to safety in the nuclear industry. The chapters include information on organizational design and safety; organizational governance; utility environment and safety related outcomes; assessments by selected federal agencies; review of data sources in the nuclear power industry; and existing safety indicators

  20. Tooele Army Depot Revised Final Site-Wide Ecological Risk Assessment. Volume IV

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    1998-01-01

    Partial Contents: Soil samples, Biota Samples, Risk Assessment, Historic, Hazard, Herbicides, Metals, Pesticides, Dioxins, Furans, Invertebrate Data, Toxicity, Detection, Exposure, Bioaccumulation Models...

  1. Modeling issues in nuclear plant fire risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siu, N.

    1989-01-01

    This paper discusses various issues associated with current models for analyzing the risk due to fires in nuclear power plants. Particular emphasis is placed on the fire growth and suppression models, these being unique to the fire portion of the overall risk analysis. Potentially significant modeling improvements are identified; also discussed are a variety of modeling issues where improvements will help the credibility of the analysis, without necessarily changing the computed risk significantly. The mechanistic modeling of fire initiation is identified as a particularly promising improvement for reducing the uncertainties in the predicted risk. 17 refs., 5 figs. 2 tabs

  2. LDC commodity risk analysis and recommendations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-01-01

    Under the current operation of the new competitive electricity market in Ontario, local distribution companies (LDCs) are required to pay the monthly invoice of the Independent Market Operator (IMO) before they collect from end-users for the consumption period covered by the invoice, with no clear guarantee that the recovery will occur. This situation creates a major cash flow problem and financial risk for LDCs and threatens the integrity and stability of the electricity market. This paper described 3 features of Ontario's competitive electricity market that create financial and commodity risk. The first problem is that there is no limit on how high prices can rise. Increases in wholesale commodity prices can result in a situation where the amount of the IMO's invoice is greater than the LDC's ability to pay at the time of receipt. Secondly, the LDC bears a 100 per cent payment obligation to the IMO administrator of the wholesale market. The third problem is that LDCs bear payment default risk from all consumers in the Ontario market, including electricity retailers. This paper presents some specific policy solutions that can protect the market from this threat. It was suggested that in order to protect the integrity of Ontario's electricity market during high prices, a policy must be drafted to address the commodity price financing risk (CPFR) issue. The policy must also define what happens if prices increase past the LDCs financing obligation limit. tabs., figs

  3. Risk Analysis and Security Countermeasure Selection

    CERN Document Server

    Norman, Thomas L

    2009-01-01

    Explains how to evaluate the appropriateness of security countermeasures, from a cost-effectiveness perspective. This title guides readers from basic principles to complex processes in a step-by-step fashion, evaluating DHS-approved risk assessment methods, including CARVER, API/NPRA, RAMCAP, and various Sandia methodologies

  4. Study of the Utah uranium-milling industry. Volume I. A policy analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Turley, R.E.

    1980-05-01

    This is the first volume of a two volume study of the Utah Uranium Milling Industry. The study was precipitated by a 1977 report issued by the Western Interstate Nuclear Board entitled Policy Recommendations on Financing Stabilization. Perpetual Surveillance and Maintenance of Uranium Mill Tailings. Volume I of this study is a policy analysis or technology assessment of the uranium milling industry in the state of Utah; specifically, the study addresses issues that deal with the perpetual surveillance, monitoring, and maintenance of uranium tailings piles at the end of uranium milling operations, i.e., following shutdown and decommissioning. Volume II of this report serves somewhat as an appendix. It represents a full description of the uranium industry in the state of Utah, including its history and statements regarding its future. The topics covered in volume I are as follows: today's uranium industry in Utah; management of the industry's characteristic nuclear radiation; uranium mill licensing and regulation; state licensing and regulation of uranium mills; forecast of future milling operations; policy needs relative to perpetual surveillance, monitoring, and maintenance of tailings; policy needs relative to perpetual oversight; economic aspects; state revenue from uranium; and summary with conclusions and recommendations. Appendices, figures and tables are also presented

  5. Relative cerebral blood volume as a marker of durable tissue-at-risk viability in hyperacute ischemic stroke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cortijo, Elisa; Calleja, Ana Isabel; García-Bermejo, Pablo; Mulero, Patricia; Pérez-Fernández, Santiago; Reyes, Javier; Muñoz, Ma Fe; Martínez-Galdámez, Mario; Arenillas, Juan Francisco

    2014-01-01

    Selection of best responders to reperfusion therapies could be aided by predicting the duration of tissue-at-risk viability, which may be dependant on collateral circulation status. We aimed to identify the best predictor of good collateral circulation among perfusion computed tomography (PCT) parameters in middle cerebral artery (MCA) ischemic stroke and to analyze how early MCA response to intravenous thrombolysis and PCT-derived markers of good collaterals interact to determine stroke outcome. We prospectively studied patients with acute MCA ischemic stroke treated with intravenous thrombolysis who underwent PCT before treatment showing a target mismatch profile. Collateral status was assessed using a PCT source image-based score. PCT maps were quantitatively analyzed. Cerebral blood volume (CBV), cerebral blood flow, and Tmax were calculated within the hypoperfused volume and in the equivalent region of unaffected hemisphere. Occluded MCAs were monitored by transcranial Duplex to assess early recanalization. Main outcome variables were brain hypodensity volume and modified Rankin scale score at day 90. One hundred patients with MCA ischemic stroke imaged by PCT received intravenous thrombolysis, and 68 met all inclusion criteria. A relative CBV (rCBV) >0.93 emerged as the only predictor of good collaterals (odds ratio, 12.6; 95% confidence interval, 2.9-55.9; P=0.001). Early MCA recanalization was associated with better long-term outcome and lower infarct volume in patients with rCBV<0.93, but not in patients with high rCBV. None of the patients with rCBV<0.93 achieved good outcome in absence of early recanalization. High rCBV was the strongest marker of good collaterals and may characterize durable tissue-at-risk viability in hyperacute MCA ischemic stroke.

  6. How to Perform an Ethical Risk Analysis (eRA).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansson, Sven Ove

    2018-02-26

    Ethical analysis is often needed in the preparation of policy decisions on risk. A three-step method is proposed for performing an ethical risk analysis (eRA). In the first step, the people concerned are identified and categorized in terms of the distinct but compatible roles of being risk-exposed, a beneficiary, or a decisionmaker. In the second step, a more detailed classification of roles and role combinations is performed, and ethically problematic role combinations are identified. In the third step, further ethical deliberation takes place, with an emphasis on individual risk-benefit weighing, distributional analysis, rights analysis, and power analysis. Ethical issues pertaining to subsidiary risk roles, such as those of experts and journalists, are also treated in this phase. An eRA should supplement, not replace, a traditional risk analysis that puts emphasis on the probabilities and severities of undesirable events but does not cover ethical issues such as agency, interpersonal relationships, and justice. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

  7. Tumor dose-volume response in image-guided adaptive brachytherapy for cervical cancer: A meta-regression analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazeron, Renaud; Castelnau-Marchand, Pauline; Escande, Alexandre; Rivin Del Campo, Eleonor; Maroun, Pierre; Lefkopoulos, Dimitri; Chargari, Cyrus; Haie-Meder, Christine

    2016-01-01

    Image-guided adaptive brachytherapy is a high precision technique that allows dose escalation and adaptation to tumor response. Two monocentric studies reported continuous dose-volume response relationships, however, burdened by large confidence intervals. The aim was to refine these estimations by performing a meta-regression analysis based on published series. Eligibility was limited to series reporting dosimetric parameters according to the Groupe Européen de Curiethérapie-European SocieTy for Radiation Oncology recommendations. The local control rates reported at 2-3 years were confronted to the mean D90 clinical target volume (CTV) in 2-Gy equivalent using the probit model. The impact of each series on the relationships was pondered according to the number of patients reported. An exhaustive literature search retrieved 13 series reporting on 1299 patients. D90 high-risk CTV ranged from 70.9 to 93.1 Gy. The probit model showed a significant correlation between the D90 and the probability of achieving local control (p < 0.0001). The D90 associated to a 90% probability of achieving local control was 81.4 Gy (78.3-83.8 Gy). The planning aim of 90 Gy corresponded to a 95.0% probability (92.8-96.3%). For the intermediate-risk CTV, less data were available, with 873 patients from eight institutions. Reported mean D90 intermediate-risk CTV ranged from 61.7 to 69.1 Gy. A significant dose-volume effect was observed (p = 0.009). The D90 of 60 Gy was associated to a 79.4% (60.2-86.0%) local control probability. Based on published data from a high number of patients, significant dose-volume effect relationships were confirmed and refined between the D90 of both CTV and the probability of achieving local control. Further studies based on individual data are required to develop nomograms including nondosimetric prognostic criteria. Copyright © 2016 American Brachytherapy Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Converging stereotactic radiotherapy using kilovoltage X-rays: experimental irradiation of normal rabbit lung and dose-volume analysis with Monte Carlo simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawase, Takatsugu; Kunieda, Etsuo; Deloar, Hossain M; Tsunoo, Takanori; Seki, Satoshi; Oku, Yohei; Saitoh, Hidetoshi; Saito, Kimiaki; Ogawa, Eileen N; Ishizaka, Akitoshi; Kameyama, Kaori; Kubo, Atsushi

    2009-10-01

    To validate the feasibility of developing a radiotherapy unit with kilovoltage X-rays through actual irradiation of live rabbit lungs, and to explore the practical issues anticipated in future clinical application to humans through Monte Carlo dose simulation. A converging stereotactic irradiation unit was developed, consisting of a modified diagnostic computed tomography (CT) scanner. A tiny cylindrical volume in 13 normal rabbit lungs was individually irradiated with single fractional absorbed doses of 15, 30, 45, and 60 Gy. Observational CT scanning of the whole lung was performed every 2 weeks for 30 weeks after irradiation. After 30 weeks, histopathologic specimens of the lungs were examined. Dose distribution was simulated using the Monte Carlo method, and dose-volume histograms were calculated according to the data. A trial estimation of the effect of respiratory movement on dose distribution was made. A localized hypodense change and subsequent reticular opacity around the planning target volume (PTV) were observed in CT images of rabbit lungs. Dose-volume histograms of the PTVs and organs at risk showed a focused dose distribution to the target and sufficient dose lowering in the organs at risk. Our estimate of the dose distribution, taking respiratory movement into account, revealed dose reduction in the PTV. A converging stereotactic irradiation unit using kilovoltage X-rays was able to generate a focused radiobiologic reaction in rabbit lungs. Dose-volume histogram analysis and estimated sagittal dose distribution, considering respiratory movement, clarified the characteristics of the irradiation received from this type of unit.

  9. Flood Risk Assessment Based On Security Deficit Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beck, J.; Metzger, R.; Hingray, B.; Musy, A.

    Risk is a human perception: a given risk may be considered as acceptable or unac- ceptable depending on the group that has to face that risk. Flood risk analysis of- ten estimates economic losses from damages, but neglects the question of accept- able/unacceptable risk. With input from land use managers, politicians and other stakeholders, risk assessment based on security deficit analysis determines objects with unacceptable risk and their degree of security deficit. Such a risk assessment methodology, initially developed by the Swiss federal authorities, is illustrated by its application on a reach of the Alzette River (Luxembourg) in the framework of the IRMA-SPONGE FRHYMAP project. Flood risk assessment always involves a flood hazard analysis, an exposed object vulnerability analysis, and an analysis combing the results of these two previous analyses. The flood hazard analysis was done with the quasi-2D hydraulic model FldPln to produce flood intensity maps. Flood intensity was determined by the water height and velocity. Object data for the vulnerability analysis, provided by the Luxembourg government, were classified according to their potential damage. Potential damage is expressed in terms of direct, human life and secondary losses. A thematic map was produced to show the object classification. Protection goals were then attributed to the object classes. Protection goals are assigned in terms of an acceptable flood intensity for a certain flood frequency. This is where input from land use managers and politicians comes into play. The perception of risk in the re- gion or country influences the protection goal assignment. Protection goals as used in Switzerland were used in this project. Thematic maps showing the protection goals of each object in the case study area for a given flood frequency were produced. Com- parison between an object's protection goal and the intensity of the flood that touched the object determine the acceptability of the risk and the

  10. On the validation of risk analysis-A commentary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosqvist, Tony

    2010-01-01

    Aven and Heide (2009) [1] provided interesting views on the reliability and validation of risk analysis. The four validation criteria presented are contrasted with modelling features related to the relative frequency-based and Bayesian approaches to risk analysis. In this commentary I would like to bring forth some issues on validation that partly confirm and partly suggest changes in the interpretation of the introduced validation criteria-especially, in the context of low probability-high consequence systems. The mental model of an expert in assessing probabilities is argued to be a key notion in understanding the validation of a risk analysis.

  11. Risk analysis methodologies for the transportation of radioactive materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Geffen, C.A.

    1983-05-01

    Different methodologies have evolved for consideration of each of the many steps required in performing a transportation risk analysis. Although there are techniques that attempt to consider the entire scope of the analysis in depth, most applications of risk assessment to the transportation of nuclear fuel cycle materials develop specific methodologies for only one or two parts of the analysis. The remaining steps are simplified for the analyst by narrowing the scope of the effort (such as evaluating risks for only one material, or a particular set of accident scenarios, or movement over a specific route); performing a qualitative rather than a quantitative analysis (probabilities may be simply ranked as high, medium or low, for instance); or assuming some generic, conservative conditions for potential release fractions and consequences. This paper presents a discussion of the history and present state-of-the-art of transportation risk analysis methodologies. Many reports in this area were reviewed as background for this presentation. The literature review, while not exhaustive, did result in a complete representation of the major methods used today in transportation risk analysis. These methodologies primarily include the use of severity categories based on historical accident data, the analysis of specifically assumed accident sequences for the transportation activity of interest, and the use of fault or event tree analysis. Although the focus of this work has generally been on potential impacts to public groups, some effort has been expended in the estimation of risks to occupational groups in transportation activities

  12. Risk analysis of complex hydrogen infrastructures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Markert, Frank; Marangon, Alessia; Carcassi, Marco

    2015-01-01

    Developing a future sustainable refuelling station network is the next important step to establish hydrogen as a fuel for vehicles and related services. Such stations will most likely be integrated in existing refuelling stations and result in multi-fuel storages with a variety of fuels being...... to improve the quality of biomass based fuels. Therefore, hydrogen supply and distribution chains will likely not only serve to fulfil the demands of refuelling, but may also be important for the wider electrical power and fuel industries. Based on an integrated hydrogen supply and distribution network...... assessment methodologies, and how functional models could support coherent risk and sustainability (Risk Assessment, Life Cycle Assessment /Life Cycle Costing) assessments, in order to find optimal solutions for the development of the infrastructure on a regional or national level....

  13. Analysis of power system collapse risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eleschova, Z.; Belan, A.; Cintula, B.; Smitkova, M.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper are analysed the initialization events with considering different scenarios and their impact on the power system transient stability. As an initialization event is considered a short circuit at various places of power line. In each scenario are considered protection failures (backup protection), circuit-breaker failures (breaker failure relay activation). The individual states are analysed and the power system collapse risk assessed based on the simulation experiments results (Authors)

  14. Bayesian-network-based safety risk analysis in construction projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Limao; Wu, Xianguo; Skibniewski, Miroslaw J.; Zhong, Jingbing; Lu, Yujie

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a systemic decision support approach for safety risk analysis under uncertainty in tunnel construction. Fuzzy Bayesian Networks (FBN) is used to investigate causal relationships between tunnel-induced damage and its influential variables based upon the risk/hazard mechanism analysis. Aiming to overcome limitations on the current probability estimation, an expert confidence indicator is proposed to ensure the reliability of the surveyed data for fuzzy probability assessment of basic risk factors. A detailed fuzzy-based inference procedure is developed, which has a capacity of implementing deductive reasoning, sensitivity analysis and abductive reasoning. The “3σ criterion” is adopted to calculate the characteristic values of a triangular fuzzy number in the probability fuzzification process, and the α-weighted valuation method is adopted for defuzzification. The construction safety analysis progress is extended to the entire life cycle of risk-prone events, including the pre-accident, during-construction continuous and post-accident control. A typical hazard concerning the tunnel leakage in the construction of Wuhan Yangtze Metro Tunnel in China is presented as a case study, in order to verify the applicability of the proposed approach. The results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed approach and its application potential. A comparison of advantages and disadvantages between FBN and fuzzy fault tree analysis (FFTA) as risk analysis tools is also conducted. The proposed approach can be used to provide guidelines for safety analysis and management in construction projects, and thus increase the likelihood of a successful project in a complex environment. - Highlights: • A systemic Bayesian network based approach for safety risk analysis is developed. • An expert confidence indicator for probability fuzzification is proposed. • Safety risk analysis progress is extended to entire life cycle of risk-prone events. • A typical

  15. Environmental risk assessment in GMO analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pirondini, Andrea; Marmiroli, Nelson

    2010-01-01

    Genetically modified or engineered organisms (GMOs, GEOs) are utilised in agriculture, expressing traits of interest, such as insect or herbicide resistance. Soybean, maize, cotton and oilseed rape are the GM crops with the largest acreage in the world. The distribution of GM acreage in the different countries is related with the different positions concerning labelling of GMO products: based on the principle of substantial equivalence, or rather based on the precautionary principle. The paper provides an overview on how the risks associated with release of GMO in the environments can be analysed and predicted, in view of a possible coexistence of GM and non-GM organisms in agriculture.Risk assessment procedures, both qualitative and quantitative, are compared in the context of application to GMOs considering also legislation requirements (Directive 2001/18/EC). Criteria and measurable properties to assess harm for human health and environmental safety are listed, and the possible consequences are evaluated in terms of significance.Finally, a mapping of the possible risks deriving from GMO release is reported, focusing on gene transfer to related species, horizontal gene transfer, direct and indirect effects on non target organisms, development of resistance in target organisms, and effects on biodiversity.

  16. Analysis of Alternatives for Risk Assessment Methodologies and Tools

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nachtigal, Noel M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). System Analytics; Fruetel, Julia A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Gleason, Nathaniel J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Helms, Jovana [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Imbro, Dennis Raymond [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Sumner, Matthew C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis

    2013-10-01

    The purpose of this document is to provide a basic overview and understanding of risk assessment methodologies and tools from the literature and to assess the suitability of these methodologies and tools for cyber risk assessment. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) performed this review in support of risk modeling activities performed for the Stakeholder Engagement and Cyber Infrastructure Resilience (SECIR) division of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Office of Cybersecurity and Communications (CS&C). The set of methodologies and tools covered in this document is not intended to be exhaustive; instead, it focuses on those that are commonly used in the risk assessment community. The classification of methodologies and tools was performed by a group of analysts with experience in risk analysis and cybersecurity, and the resulting analysis of alternatives has been tailored to address the needs of a cyber risk assessment.

  17. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Food chain uncertainty assessment. Volume 2: Appendices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, J. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands)] [and others

    1997-06-01

    This volume is the second of a two-volume document that summarizes a joint project by the US Nuclear Regulatory and the Commission of European Communities to assess uncertainties in the MACCS and COSYMA probabilistic accident consequence codes. These codes were developed primarily for estimating the risks presented by nuclear reactors based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. This two-volume report, which examines mechanisms and uncertainties of transfer through the food chain, is the first in a series of five such reports. A panel of sixteen experts was formed to compile credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for food chain transfer that affect calculations of offsite radiological consequences. Seven of the experts reported on transfer into the food chain through soil and plants, nine reported on transfer via food products from animals, and two reported on both. The expert judgment elicitation procedure and its outcomes are described in these volumes. This volume contains seven appendices. Appendix A presents a brief discussion of the MAACS and COSYMA model codes. Appendix B is the structure document and elicitation questionnaire for the expert panel on soils and plants. Appendix C presents the rationales and responses of each of the members of the soils and plants expert panel. Appendix D is the structure document and elicitation questionnaire for the expert panel on animal transfer. The rationales and responses of each of the experts on animal transfer are given in Appendix E. Brief biographies of the food chain expert panel members are provided in Appendix F. Aggregated results of expert responses are presented in graph format in Appendix G.

  18. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Food chain uncertainty assessment. Volume 2: Appendices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, J.; Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.

    1997-06-01

    This volume is the second of a two-volume document that summarizes a joint project by the US Nuclear Regulatory and the Commission of European Communities to assess uncertainties in the MACCS and COSYMA probabilistic accident consequence codes. These codes were developed primarily for estimating the risks presented by nuclear reactors based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. This two-volume report, which examines mechanisms and uncertainties of transfer through the food chain, is the first in a series of five such reports. A panel of sixteen experts was formed to compile credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for food chain transfer that affect calculations of offsite radiological consequences. Seven of the experts reported on transfer into the food chain through soil and plants, nine reported on transfer via food products from animals, and two reported on both. The expert judgment elicitation procedure and its outcomes are described in these volumes. This volume contains seven appendices. Appendix A presents a brief discussion of the MAACS and COSYMA model codes. Appendix B is the structure document and elicitation questionnaire for the expert panel on soils and plants. Appendix C presents the rationales and responses of each of the members of the soils and plants expert panel. Appendix D is the structure document and elicitation questionnaire for the expert panel on animal transfer. The rationales and responses of each of the experts on animal transfer are given in Appendix E. Brief biographies of the food chain expert panel members are provided in Appendix F. Aggregated results of expert responses are presented in graph format in Appendix G

  19. Overweight Is an Independent Risk Factor for Reduced Lung Volumes in Myotonic Dystrophy Type 1.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charlotte G W Seijger

    Full Text Available In this large observational study population of 105 myotonic dystrophy type 1 (DM1 patients, we investigate whether bodyweight is a contributor of total lung capacity (TLC independent of the impaired inspiratory muscle strength.Body composition was assessed using the combination of body mass index (BMI and fat-free mass index. Pulmonary function tests and respiratory muscle strength measurements were performed on the same day. Patients were stratified into normal (BMI < 25 kg/m(2 and overweight (BMI ≥ 25 kg/m(2 groups. Multiple linear regression was used to find significant contributors for TLC.Overweight was present in 59% of patients, and body composition was abnormal in almost all patients. In overweight patients, TLC was significantly (p = 2.40×10(-3 decreased, compared with normal-weight patients, while inspiratory muscle strength was similar in both groups. The decrease in TLC in overweight patients was mainly due to a decrease in expiratory reserve volume (ERV further illustrated by a highly significant (p = 1.33×10(-10 correlation between BMI and ERV. Multiple linear regression showed that TLC can be predicted using only BMI and the forced inspiratory volume in 1 second, as these were the only significant contributors.This study shows that, in DM1 patients, overweight further reduces lung volumes, as does impaired inspiratory muscle strength. Additionally, body composition is abnormal in almost all DM1 patients.

  20. Work program analysis - defining the capability/risk plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hrinivich, W.A.

    2004-01-01

    Bruce Power has developed and implemented an analysis methodology (Work Program Analysis) to assess and address corporate business risk associated with work group capability. Work Program Analysis is proving to be an excellent tool for identifying and supporting key business decisions facing the line and senior management at Bruce Power. The following describes the methodology, its application and the results achieved. (author)

  1. Urban flooding and health risk analysis by use of quantitative microbial risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Signe Tanja

    D thesis is to identify the limitations and possibilities for optimising microbial risk assessments of urban flooding through more evidence-based solutions, including quantitative microbial data and hydrodynamic water quality models. The focus falls especially on the problem of data needs and the causes......, but also when wading through a flooded area. The results in this thesis have brought microbial risk assessments one step closer to more uniform and repeatable risk analysis by using actual and relevant measured data and hydrodynamic water quality models to estimate the risk from flooding caused...... are expected to increase in the future. To ensure public health during extreme rainfall, solutions are needed, but limited knowledge on microbial water quality, and related health risks, makes it difficult to implement microbial risk analysis as a part of the basis for decision making. The main aim of this Ph...

  2. Environmental risk analysis for nanomaterials: Review and evaluation of frameworks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grieger, Khara Deanne; Linkov, Igor; Hansen, Steffen Foss

    2012-01-01

    to occupational settings with minor environmental considerations, and most have not been thoroughly tested on a wide range of NM. Care should also be taken when selecting the most appropriate risk analysis strategy for a given risk context. Given this, we recommend a multi-faceted approach to assess...... the environmental risks of NM as well as increased applications and testing of the proposed frameworks for different NM....

  3. HVAC fault tree analysis for WIPP integrated risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirby, P.; Iacovino, J.

    1990-01-01

    In order to evaluate the public health risk from operation of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) due to potential radioactive releases, a probabilistic risk assessment of waste handling operations was conducted. One major aspect of this risk assessment involved fault tree analysis of the plant heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, which comprise the final barrier between waste handling operations and the environment. 1 refs., 1 tab

  4. WE-B-BRC-02: Risk Analysis and Incident Learning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fraass, B. [Cedars Sinai Medical Center (United States)

    2016-06-15

    Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. We therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation oncology

  5. WE-B-BRC-02: Risk Analysis and Incident Learning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fraass, B.

    2016-01-01

    Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. We therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation oncology

  6. HYDRA-II: A hydrothermal analysis computer code: Volume 1, Equations and numerics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McCann, R.A.

    1987-04-01

    HYDRA-II is a hydrothermal computer code capable of three-dimensional analysis of coupled conduction, convection, and thermal radiation problems. This code is especially appropriate for simulating the steady-state performance of spent fuel storage systems. The code has been evaluated for this application for the US Department of Energy's Commercial Spent Fuel Management Program. HYDRA-II provides a finite difference solution in Cartesian coordinates to the equations governing the conservation of mass, momentum, and energy. A cylindrical coordinate system may also be used to enclose the Cartesian coordinate system. This exterior coordinate system is useful for modeling cylindrical cask bodies. The difference equations for conservation of momentum are enhanced by the incorporation of directional porosities and permeabilities that aid in modeling solid structures whose dimensions may be smaller than the computational mesh. The equation for conservation of energy permits of modeling of orthotropic physical properties and film resistances. Several automated procedures are available to model radiation transfer within enclosures and from fuel rod to fuel rod. The documentation of HYDRA-II is presented in three separate volumes. This volume, Volume I - Equations and Numerics, describes the basic differential equations, illustrates how the difference equations are formulated, and gives the solution procedures employed. Volume II - User's Manual contains code flow charts, discusses the code structure, provides detailed instructions for preparing an input file, and illustrates the operation of the code by means of a model problem. The final volume, Volume III - Verification/Validation Assessments, presents results of numerical simulations of single- and multiassembly storage systems and comparisons with experimental data. 4 refs

  7. Predicting Nonauditory Adverse Radiation Effects Following Radiosurgery for Vestibular Schwannoma: A Volume and Dosimetric Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hayhurst, Caroline; Monsalves, Eric; Bernstein, Mark; Gentili, Fred; Heydarian, Mostafa; Tsao, May; Schwartz, Michael; Prooijen, Monique van; Millar, Barbara-Ann; Ménard, Cynthia; Kulkarni, Abhaya V.; Laperriere, Norm; Zadeh, Gelareh

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: To define clinical and dosimetric predictors of nonauditory adverse radiation effects after radiosurgery for vestibular schwannoma treated with a 12 Gy prescription dose. Methods: We retrospectively reviewed our experience of vestibular schwannoma patients treated between September 2005 and December 2009. Two hundred patients were treated at a 12 Gy prescription dose; 80 had complete clinical and radiological follow-up for at least 24 months (median, 28.5 months). All treatment plans were reviewed for target volume and dosimetry characteristics; gradient index; homogeneity index, defined as the maximum dose in the treatment volume divided by the prescription dose; conformity index; brainstem; and trigeminal nerve dose. All adverse radiation effects (ARE) were recorded. Because the intent of our study was to focus on the nonauditory adverse effects, hearing outcome was not evaluated in this study. Results: Twenty-seven (33.8%) patients developed ARE, 5 (6%) developed hydrocephalus, 10 (12.5%) reported new ataxia, 17 (21%) developed trigeminal dysfunction, 3 (3.75%) had facial weakness, and 1 patient developed hemifacial spasm. The development of edema within the pons was significantly associated with ARE (p = 0.001). On multivariate analysis, only target volume is a significant predictor of ARE (p = 0.001). There is a target volume threshold of 5 cm3, above which ARE are more likely. The treatment plan dosimetric characteristics are not associated with ARE, although the maximum dose to the 5th nerve is a significant predictor of trigeminal dysfunction, with a threshold of 9 Gy. The overall 2-year tumor control rate was 96%. Conclusions: Target volume is the most important predictor of adverse radiation effects, and we identified the significant treatment volume threshold to be 5 cm3. We also established through our series that the maximum tolerable dose to the 5th nerve is 9 Gy.

  8. Predicting Nonauditory Adverse Radiation Effects Following Radiosurgery for Vestibular Schwannoma: A Volume and Dosimetric Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hayhurst, Caroline; Monsalves, Eric; Bernstein, Mark; Gentili, Fred [Gamma Knife Unit, Division of Neurosurgery, University Health Network, Toronto (Canada); Heydarian, Mostafa; Tsao, May [Radiation Medicine Program, Princess Margaret Hospital, Toronto (Canada); Schwartz, Michael [Radiation Oncology Program and Division of Neurosurgery, Sunnybrook Hospital, Toronto (Canada); Prooijen, Monique van [Radiation Medicine Program, Princess Margaret Hospital, Toronto (Canada); Millar, Barbara-Ann; Menard, Cynthia [Radiation Oncology Program, Princess Margaret Hospital, Toronto (Canada); Kulkarni, Abhaya V. [Division of Neurosurgery, Hospital for Sick Children, University of Toronto (Canada); Laperriere, Norm [Radiation Oncology Program, Princess Margaret Hospital, Toronto (Canada); Zadeh, Gelareh, E-mail: Gelareh.Zadeh@uhn.on.ca [Gamma Knife Unit, Division of Neurosurgery, University Health Network, Toronto (Canada)

    2012-04-01

    Purpose: To define clinical and dosimetric predictors of nonauditory adverse radiation effects after radiosurgery for vestibular schwannoma treated with a 12 Gy prescription dose. Methods: We retrospectively reviewed our experience of vestibular schwannoma patients treated between September 2005 and December 2009. Two hundred patients were treated at a 12 Gy prescription dose; 80 had complete clinical and radiological follow-up for at least 24 months (median, 28.5 months). All treatment plans were reviewed for target volume and dosimetry characteristics; gradient index; homogeneity index, defined as the maximum dose in the treatment volume divided by the prescription dose; conformity index; brainstem; and trigeminal nerve dose. All adverse radiation effects (ARE) were recorded. Because the intent of our study was to focus on the nonauditory adverse effects, hearing outcome was not evaluated in this study. Results: Twenty-seven (33.8%) patients developed ARE, 5 (6%) developed hydrocephalus, 10 (12.5%) reported new ataxia, 17 (21%) developed trigeminal dysfunction, 3 (3.75%) had facial weakness, and 1 patient developed hemifacial spasm. The development of edema within the pons was significantly associated with ARE (p = 0.001). On multivariate analysis, only target volume is a significant predictor of ARE (p = 0.001). There is a target volume threshold of 5 cm3, above which ARE are more likely. The treatment plan dosimetric characteristics are not associated with ARE, although the maximum dose to the 5th nerve is a significant predictor of trigeminal dysfunction, with a threshold of 9 Gy. The overall 2-year tumor control rate was 96%. Conclusions: Target volume is the most important predictor of adverse radiation effects, and we identified the significant treatment volume threshold to be 5 cm3. We also established through our series that the maximum tolerable dose to the 5th nerve is 9 Gy.

  9. Three-Dimensional Echocardiography-Derived Non-Invasive Right Ventricular Pressure-Volume Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Kuan-Chih; Lin, Lian-Yu; Hwang, Juey-Jen; Lin, Lung-Chun

    2017-09-01

    In patients with pulmonary hypertension, repeated evaluations of right ventricular (RV) function are still required for clinical decision making, but the invasive nature of current pressure-volume analysis makes conducting regular follow-ups in a clinical setting infeasible. We enrolled 12 patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) and 10 with pulmonary venous hypertension (PVH) May 2016-October 2016. All patients underwent a clinically indicated right heart catheterization (RHC), from which the yielded right ventricular pressure recordings were conjugated with RV volume by 3-D echocardiography to generate a pressure-volume loop. A continuous-wave Doppler envelope of tricuspid regurgitation was transformed into a pressure gradient recording by the simplified Bernoulli equation, and then a systolic pressure gradient-volume (PG-V) diagram was generated from similar methods. The area enclosed by the pressure-volume loop was calculated to represent semi-invasive right ventricular stroke work (RVSW RHC ). The area between the PG-V diagram and x-axis was calculated to estimate non-invasive RVSW (RVSW echo ). Patients with PAH have higher RV pressure, lower pulmonary arterial wedge pressure and larger RV volume that was contributed by the dilation of RV mid-cavity minor dimension. We found no significant difference of traditional parameters between these two groups, but RVSW values were significantly higher in PAH patients. The RVSW values of these two methods were significantly correlated by the equation RVSW echo  = 0.8447 RVSW RHC  + 129.38 (R 2  = 0.9151, p rights reserved.

  10. Applying Multi-Criteria Analysis Methods for Fire Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pushkina Julia

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to prove the application of multi-criteria analysis methods for optimisation of fire risk identification and assessment process. The object of this research is fire risk and risk assessment. The subject of the research is studying the application of analytic hierarchy process for modelling and influence assessment of various fire risk factors. Results of research conducted by the authors can be used by insurance companies to perform the detailed assessment of fire risks on the object and to calculate a risk extra charge to an insurance premium; by the state supervisory institutions to determine the compliance of a condition of object with requirements of regulations; by real state owners and investors to carry out actions for decrease in degree of fire risks and minimisation of possible losses.

  11. DYNAMIC HYBRIDS UNDER SOLVENCY II: RISK ANALYSIS AND MODIFICATION POSSIBILITIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Maier

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we investigate the new and standardized European system of supervisory called Solvency II. In essence, asymmetric distribution of information between policyholder and insurer triggered this new regulation which aims at better protecting policyholders. Its three-pillar model is about to challenge both, insurers as well as policyholders. The first pillar includes quantitative aspects, the second pillar contains qualitative aspects and the third pillar comprises market transparency and reporting obligations. Underwriting risks, the default risk of a bank and market risks can be identified for the dynamic hybrid. Solvency II covers all these risks in the first pillar and insurers shall deposit sufficient risk-bearing capital. In our analysis, we first identify the dynamic hybrid specific risks under the Solvency II regime und then develop product modifications to reduce this risk.

  12. Risk and safety analysis of nuclear systems

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lee, John C; McCormick, Norman J

    2011-01-01

    ...), and failure modes of systems. All of this material is general enough that it could be used in non-nuclear applications, although there is an emphasis placed on the analysis of nuclear systems...

  13. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 4 Appendix C - Historical Maximum Near-Surface Air Temperature.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-06-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  14. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 6 Appendix E - Historical Minimum Near-Surface Air Temperature.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-06-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  15. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 18 Appendix Q - Historical Maximum Near-Surface Wind Speed.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-06-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconom ic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  16. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 2 Appendix A - Historical Near-Surface Air Temperature.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-06-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  17. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 21 Appendix T - Forecast Sea Ice Area Fraction.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-06-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  18. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 20 Appendix S - Historical Sea Ice Area Fraction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-06-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  19. The development of a 3D risk analysis method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    I, Yet-Pole; Cheng, Te-Lung

    2008-05-01

    Much attention has been paid to the quantitative risk analysis (QRA) research in recent years due to more and more severe disasters that have happened in the process industries. Owing to its calculation complexity, very few software, such as SAFETI, can really make the risk presentation meet the practice requirements. However, the traditional risk presentation method, like the individual risk contour in SAFETI, is mainly based on the consequence analysis results of dispersion modeling, which usually assumes that the vapor cloud disperses over a constant ground roughness on a flat terrain with no obstructions and concentration fluctuations, which is quite different from the real situations of a chemical process plant. All these models usually over-predict the hazardous regions in order to maintain their conservativeness, which also increases the uncertainty of the simulation results. On the other hand, a more rigorous model such as the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model can resolve the previous limitations; however, it cannot resolve the complexity of risk calculations. In this research, a conceptual three-dimensional (3D) risk calculation method was proposed via the combination of results of a series of CFD simulations with some post-processing procedures to obtain the 3D individual risk iso-surfaces. It is believed that such technique will not only be limited to risk analysis at ground level, but also be extended into aerial, submarine, or space risk analyses in the near future.

  20. Fluid Vessel Quantity using Non-Invasive PZT Technology Flight Volume Measurements Under Zero G Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garofalo, Anthony A.

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of the project is to perform analysis of data using the Systems Engineering Educational Discovery (SEED) program data from 2011 and 2012 Fluid Vessel Quantity using Non-Invasive PZT Technology flight volume measurements under Zero G conditions (parabolic Plane flight data). Also experimental planning and lab work for future sub-orbital experiments to use the NASA PZT technology for fluid volume measurement. Along with conducting data analysis of flight data, I also did a variety of other tasks. I provided the lab with detailed technical drawings, experimented with 3d printers, made changes to the liquid nitrogen skid schematics, and learned how to weld. I also programmed microcontrollers to interact with various sensors and helped with other things going on around the lab.

  1. Effect of lung-protective ventilation with lower tidal volumes on clinical outcomes among patients undergoing surgery: a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Wan-Jie; Wang, Fei; Liu, Jing-Chen

    2015-02-17

    In anesthetized patients undergoing surgery, the role of lung-protective ventilation with lower tidal volumes is unclear. We performed a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) to evaluate the effect of this ventilation strategy on postoperative outcomes. We searched electronic databases from inception through September 2014. We included RCTs that compared protective ventilation with lower tidal volumes and conventional ventilation with higher tidal volumes in anesthetized adults undergoing surgery. We pooled outcomes using a random-effects model. The primary outcome measures were lung injury and pulmonary infection. We included 19 trials (n=1348). Compared with patients in the control group, those who received lung-protective ventilation had a decreased risk of lung injury (risk ratio [RR] 0.36, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.17 to 0.78; I2=0%) and pulmonary infection (RR 0.46, 95% CI 0.26 to 0.83; I2=8%), and higher levels of arterial partial pressure of carbon dioxide (standardized mean difference 0.47, 95% CI 0.18 to 0.75; I2=65%). No significant differences were observed between the patient groups in atelectasis, mortality, length of hospital stay, length of stay in the intensive care unit or the ratio of arterial partial pressure of oxygen to fraction of inspired oxygen. Anesthetized patients who received ventilation with lower tidal volumes during surgery had a lower risk of lung injury and pulmonary infection than those given conventional ventilation with higher tidal volumes. Implementation of a lung-protective ventilation strategy with lower tidal volumes may lower the incidence of these outcomes. © 2015 Canadian Medical Association or its licensors.

  2. Assessment of major nuclear technologies with decision and risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Winterfeldt, D. von

    1995-01-01

    Selecting technologies for major nuclear programs involves several complexities, including multiple stakeholders, multiple conflicting objectives, uncertainties, and risk. In addition, the programmatic risks related to the schedule, cost, and performance of these technologies often become major issues in the selection process. This paper describes a decision analysis approach for addressing these complexities in a logical manner

  3. The JPL Cost Risk Analysis Approach that Incorporates Engineering Realism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harmon, Corey C.; Warfield, Keith R.; Rosenberg, Leigh S.

    2006-01-01

    This paper discusses the JPL Cost Engineering Group (CEG) cost risk analysis approach that accounts for all three types of cost risk. It will also describe the evaluation of historical cost data upon which this method is based. This investigation is essential in developing a method that is rooted in engineering realism and produces credible, dependable results to aid decision makers.

  4. The use of current risk analysis tools evaluated towards preventing external domino accidents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reniers, Genserik L L; Dullaert, W.; Ale, B. J.M.; Soudan, K.

    Risk analysis is an essential tool for company safety policy. Risk analysis consists of identifying and evaluating all possible risks. The efficiency of risk analysis tools depends on the rigueur of identifying and evaluating all possible risks. The diversity in risk analysis procedures is such that

  5. Simulation Approach to Mission Risk and Reliability Analysis, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — It is proposed to develop and demonstrate an integrated total-system risk and reliability analysis approach that is based on dynamic, probabilistic simulation. This...

  6. Risk and train control : a framework for analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2001-01-01

    This report develops and demonstrates a framework for examining the effects of various train control strategies on some of the major risks of railroad operations. Analysis of hypothetical 1200-mile corridor identified the main factors that increase r...

  7. Vulnerability and Risk Analysis Program: Overview of Assessment Methodology

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2001-01-01

    .... Over the last three years, a team of national laboratory experts, working in partnership with the energy industry, has successfully applied the methodology as part of OCIP's Vulnerability and Risk Analysis Program (VRAP...

  8. Risk and Interdependencies in Critical Infrastructures A Guideline for Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Utne, Ingrid; Vatn, Jørn

    2012-01-01

    Today’s society is completely dependent on critical networks such as  water supply, sewage, electricity, ICT and transportation. Risk and vulnerability analyses are needed to grasp the impact of threats and hazards. However, these become quite complex as there are strong interdependencies both within and between infrastructure systems. Risk and Interdependencies in Critical Infrastructures: A  guideline for analysis provides methods for analyzing risks and interdependencies of critical infrastructures.  A number of analysis approaches are described and are adapted to each of these infrastructures. Various approaches are also revised, and all are supported by several examples and illustrations. Particular emphasis is given to the analysis of various interdependencies that often exist between the infrastructures.  Risk and Interdependencies in Critical Infrastructures: A  guideline for analysis provides a good tool to identify the hazards that are threatening your infrastructures, and will enhance the un...

  9. Spent fuel pool risk analysis for the Dukovany NPP

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hust' ak, S.; Jaros, M.; Kubicek, J. [UJV Rez, a.s., Husinec-Rez (Czech Republic)

    2013-07-01

    UJV Rez, a.s. maintains a Living Probabilistic Safety Assessment (Living PSA) program for Dukovany Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) in the Czech Republic. This project has been established as a framework for activities related to risk assessment and to support for risk-informed decision making at this plant. The most extensively used PSA application at Dukovany NPP is risk monitoring of instantaneous (point-in-time) risk during plant operation, especially for the purpose of configuration risk management during plant scheduled outages to avoid risk significant configurations. The scope of PSA for Dukovany NPP includes also determination of a risk contribution from spent fuel pool (SFP) operation to provide recommendations for the prevention and mitigation of SFP accidents and to be applicable for configuration risk management. This paper describes the analysis of internal initiating events (IEs) in PSA for Dukovany NPP, which can contribute to the risk from SFP operation. The analysis of those IEs was done more thoroughly in the PSA for Dukovany NPP in order to be used in instantaneous risk monitoring. (orig.)

  10. Principal Component Analysis-Based Pattern Analysis of Dose-Volume Histograms and Influence on Rectal Toxicity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soehn, Matthias; Alber, Markus; Yan Di

    2007-01-01

    Purpose: The variability of dose-volume histogram (DVH) shapes in a patient population can be quantified using principal component analysis (PCA). We applied this to rectal DVHs of prostate cancer patients and investigated the correlation of the PCA parameters with late bleeding. Methods and Materials: PCA was applied to the rectal wall DVHs of 262 patients, who had been treated with a four-field box, conformal adaptive radiotherapy technique. The correlated changes in the DVH pattern were revealed as 'eigenmodes,' which were ordered by their importance to represent data set variability. Each DVH is uniquely characterized by its principal components (PCs). The correlation of the first three PCs and chronic rectal bleeding of Grade 2 or greater was investigated with uni- and multivariate logistic regression analyses. Results: Rectal wall DVHs in four-field conformal RT can primarily be represented by the first two or three PCs, which describe ∼94% or 96% of the DVH shape variability, respectively. The first eigenmode models the total irradiated rectal volume; thus, PC1 correlates to the mean dose. Mode 2 describes the interpatient differences of the relative rectal volume in the two- or four-field overlap region. Mode 3 reveals correlations of volumes with intermediate doses (∼40-45 Gy) and volumes with doses >70 Gy; thus, PC3 is associated with the maximal dose. According to univariate logistic regression analysis, only PC2 correlated significantly with toxicity. However, multivariate logistic regression analysis with the first two or three PCs revealed an increased probability of bleeding for DVHs with more than one large PC. Conclusions: PCA can reveal the correlation structure of DVHs for a patient population as imposed by the treatment technique and provide information about its relationship to toxicity. It proves useful for augmenting normal tissue complication probability modeling approaches

  11. The SocioEconomic Analysis of Repository Siting (SEARS): Technical documentation: Volume 3, Schematic flowcharts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kiel, B.; Parpia, B.; Murdock, S.; Hamm, R.; Fannin, D.; Ransom-Nelson, W.; Leistritz, F.L.

    1985-05-01

    This report presents a summary of results of an assessment of the adaptability, sensitivity, and accuracy of the SEARS model. Specifically, after describing the methods used in the analysis, the report presents a discussion of each aspect of the model evaluation process. The adaptation of the system to three states (Louisiana, Wyoming, and Texas) is described in light of the three key aspects of the model. Volume 3 presents 276 flowcharts for the major functions of the SEARS model

  12. Space shuttle/food system study. Volume 2, appendix E: Alternate flight systems analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    1974-01-01

    The functional requirements of stowage, preparation, serving, consumption, and cleanup were applied to each of the five food mixes selected for study in terms of the overall design of the space shuttle food system. The analysis led to a definition of performance requirements for each food mix, along with a definition of equipment to meet those requirements. Weight and volume data for all five systems, in terms of food and packaging, support equipment, and galley installation penalties, are presented.

  13. Effect of varicocelectomy on testis volume and semen parameters in adolescents: a meta-analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tie Zhou

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Varicocele repair in adolescent remains controversial. Our aim is to identify and combine clinical trials results published thus far to ascertain the efficacy of varicocelectomy in improving testis volume and semen parameters compared with nontreatment control. A literature search was performed using Medline, Embase and Web of Science, which included results obtained from meta-analysis, randomized and nonrandomized controlled studies. The study population was adolescents with clinically palpable varicocele with or without the testicular asymmetry or abnormal semen parameters. Cases were allocated to treatment and observation groups, and testis volume or semen parameters were adopted as outcome measures. As a result, seven randomized controlled trials (RCTs and nonrandomized controlled trials studying bilateral testis volume or semen parameters in both treatment and observation groups were identified. Using a random effect model, mean difference of testis volume between the treatment group and the observation group was 2.9 ml (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.6, 5.2; P< 0.05 for the varicocele side and 1.5 ml (95% CI: 0.3, 2.7; P< 0.05 for the healthy side. The random effect model analysis demonstrated that the mean difference of semen concentration, total semen motility, and normal morphology between the two groups was 13.7 × 10 6 ml−1 (95% CI: −1.4, 28.8; P = 0.075, 2.5% (95% CI: −3.6, 8.6; P= 0.424, and 2.9% (95% CI: −3.0, 8.7; P= 0.336 respectively. In conclusion, although varicocelectomy significantly improved bilateral testis volume in adolescents with varicocele compared with observation cases, semen parameters did not have any statistically significant difference between two groups. Well-planned, properly conducted RCTs are needed in order to confirm the above-mentioned conclusion further and to explore whether varicocele repair in adolescents could improve subsequently spontaneous pregnancy rates.

  14. Common pitfalls in statistical analysis: Absolute risk reduction, relative risk reduction, and number needed to treat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranganathan, Priya; Pramesh, C. S.; Aggarwal, Rakesh

    2016-01-01

    In the previous article in this series on common pitfalls in statistical analysis, we looked at the difference between risk and odds. Risk, which refers to the probability of occurrence of an event or outcome, can be defined in absolute or relative terms. Understanding what these measures represent is essential for the accurate interpretation of study results. PMID:26952180

  15. Beach Profile Analysis System (BPAS). Volume III. BPAS User’s Guide: Analysis Module SURVY1.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-06-01

    extrapolated using the two seawardmost points. Before computing volume changes, common bonds are established relative to the landward and seawsrd extent...Cyber 176 or equivalent computer. Such features include the 10- character, 60-bit word size, the FORTRAN- callable sort routine (interfacing with the NOS

  16. Beach Profile Analysis System (BPAS). Volume IV. BPAS User’s Guide: Analysis Module SURVY2.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-06-01

    feet NSL), the shoreline position can be extrapolated using the two sawardmost points. Before computing volume changes, comon bonds are established...computer. Such features include the 10- character, 60-bit word size, the FORTRAN- callable sort routine (interfacing with the NOS or NOS/BE operating

  17. Beach Profile Analysis Systems (BPAS). Volume VI. BPAS User’s Guide: Analysis Module VOLCTR.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-06-01

    the two seawardmost points. Before computing volume changes, common bonds are established relative to the landward and seaward extent of the surveys on...bit word size, the FORTRAN- callable sort routine (interfacing with the NOS or NOSME operating system SORTMRG utility), and the utility subroutines and

  18. Nuclear Dynamics Consequence Analysis (NDCA) for the Disposal of Spent Nuclear Fuel in an Underground Geologic Repository--Volume 2: Methodology and Results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, L.L.; Wilson, J.R.; Sanchez, L.C.; Aguilar, R.; Trellue, H.R.; Cochrane, K.; Rath, J.S.

    1998-01-01

    The US Department of Energy Office of Environmental Management's (DOE/EM's) National Spent Nuclear Fuel Program (NSNFP), through a collaboration between Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) and Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL), is conducting a systematic Nuclear Dynamics Consequence Analysis (NDCA) of the disposal of SNFs in an underground geologic repository sited in unsaturated tuff. This analysis is intended to provide interim guidance to the DOE for the management of the SNF while they prepare for final compliance evaluation. This report presents results from a Nuclear Dynamics Consequence Analysis (NDCA) that examined the potential consequences and risks of criticality during the long-term disposal of spent nuclear fuel owned by DOE-EM. This analysis investigated the potential of post-closure criticality, the consequences of a criticality excursion, and the probability frequency for post-closure criticality. The results of the NDCA are intended to provide the DOE-EM with a technical basis for measuring risk which can be used for screening arguments to eliminate post-closure criticality FEPs (features, events and processes) from consideration in the compliance assessment because of either low probability or low consequences. This report is composed of an executive summary (Volume 1), the methodology and results of the NDCA (Volume 2), and the applicable appendices (Volume 3)

  19. Nuclear Dynamics Consequence Analysis (NDCA) for the Disposal of Spent Nuclear Fuel in an Underground Geologic Repository--Volume 2: Methodology and Results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Taylor, L.L.; Wilson, J.R.; Sanchez, L.C.; Aguilar, R.; Trellue, H.R.; Cochrane, K.; Rath, J.S.

    1998-10-01

    The US Department of Energy Office of Environmental Management's (DOE/EM's) National Spent Nuclear Fuel Program (NSNFP), through a collaboration between Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) and Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL), is conducting a systematic Nuclear Dynamics Consequence Analysis (NDCA) of the disposal of SNFs in an underground geologic repository sited in unsaturated tuff. This analysis is intended to provide interim guidance to the DOE for the management of the SNF while they prepare for final compliance evaluation. This report presents results from a Nuclear Dynamics Consequence Analysis (NDCA) that examined the potential consequences and risks of criticality during the long-term disposal of spent nuclear fuel owned by DOE-EM. This analysis investigated the potential of post-closure criticality, the consequences of a criticality excursion, and the probability frequency for post-closure criticality. The results of the NDCA are intended to provide the DOE-EM with a technical basis for measuring risk which can be used for screening arguments to eliminate post-closure criticality FEPs (features, events and processes) from consideration in the compliance assessment because of either low probability or low consequences. This report is composed of an executive summary (Volume 1), the methodology and results of the NDCA (Volume 2), and the applicable appendices (Volume 3).

  20. Nuclear Dynamics Consequence Analysis (NDCA) for the Disposal of Spent Nuclear Fuel in an Underground Geologic Repository--Volume 1: Executive Summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, L.L.; Wilson, J.R.; Sanchez, L.Z.; Aguilar, R.; Trellue, H.R.; Cochrane, K.; Rath, J.S.

    1998-01-01

    The US Department of Energy Office of Environmental Management's (DOE/EM's) National Spent Nuclear Fuel Program (NSNFP), through a collaboration between Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) and Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL), is conducting a systematic Nuclear Dynamics Consequence Analysis (NDCA) of the disposal of SNFs in an underground geologic repository sited in unsaturated tuff. This analysis is intended to provide interim guidance to the DOE for the management of the SNF while they prepare for final compliance evaluation. This report presents results from a Nuclear Dynamics Consequence Analysis (NDCA) that examined the potential consequences and risks of criticality during the long-term disposal of spent nuclear fuel owned by DOE-EM. This analysis investigated the potential of post-closure criticality, the consequences of a criticality excursion, and the probability frequency for post-closure criticality. The results of the NDCA are intended to provide the DOE-EM with a technical basis for measuring risk which can be used for screening arguments to eliminate post-closure criticality FEPs (features, events and processes) from consideration in the compliance assessment because of either low probability or low consequences. This report is composed of an executive summary (Volume 1), the methodology and results of the NDCA (Volume 2), and the applicable appendices (Volume 3)