WorldWideScience

Sample records for risk analysis tests

  1. Real time risk analysis of kick detection: Testing and validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Islam, Rakibul; Khan, Faisal; Venkatesan, Ramchandran

    2017-01-01

    Oil and gas development is moving into harsh and remote locations where the highest level of safety is required. A blowout is one of the most feared accidents in oil and gas developments projects. The main objective of this paper is to test and validate the kick detection of blowout risk assessment model using uniquely developed experimental results. Kick detection is a major part of the blowout risk assessment model. The accuracy and timeliness of kick detection are dependent on the monitoring of multiple downhole parameters such as downhole pressure, fluid density, fluid conductivity and mass flow rate. In the present study these four parameters are considered in different logical combinations to assess the occurrence of kick and associated blowout risk. The assessed results are compared against the experimental observations. It is observed that simultaneous monitoring of mass flow rate combined with any one the three parameters provides most reliable detection of kick and potential blowout likelihood. The current work presents the framework for a dynamic risk assessment and management model. Upon success testing of this approach at the pilot and field levels, this approach could provide a paradigm shift in drilling safety. - Highlights: • A novel dynamic risk model of kick detection and blowout prediction. • Testing and Validation of the risk model. • Application of the dynamic risk model.

  2. Underground Test Area Subproject Phase I Data Analysis Task. Volume VIII - Risk Assessment Documentation Package

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1996-12-01

    Volume VIII of the documentation for the Phase I Data Analysis Task performed in support of the current Regional Flow Model, Transport Model, and Risk Assessment for the Nevada Test Site Underground Test Area Subproject contains the risk assessment documentation. Because of the size and complexity of the model area, a considerable quantity of data was collected and analyzed in support of the modeling efforts. The data analysis task was consequently broken into eight subtasks, and descriptions of each subtask's activities are contained in one of the eight volumes that comprise the Phase I Data Analysis Documentation.

  3. Alternative Testing Strategies for Nanomaterials: State of the Science and Considerations for Risk Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shatkin, J A; Ong, K J

    2016-08-01

    The rapid growth of the nanotechnology industry has warranted equal progress in the nanotoxicology and risk assessment fields. In vivo models have traditionally been used to determine human and environmental risk for chemicals; however, the use of these tests has limitations, and there are global appeals to develop reliable alternatives to animal testing. Many have investigated the use of alternative (nonanimal) testing methods and strategies have quickly developed and resulted in the generation of large toxicological data sets for numerous nanomaterials (NMs). Due to the novel physicochemical properties of NMs that are related to surface characteristics, the approach toward toxicity test development has distinct considerations from traditional chemicals, bringing new requirements for adapting these approaches for NMs. The methodical development of strategies that combine multiple alternative tests can be useful for predictive NM risk assessment and help screening-level decision making. This article provides an overview of the main developments in alternative methods and strategies for reducing uncertainty in NM risk assessment, including advantages and disadvantages of in vitro, ex vivo, and in silico methods, and examples of existing comprehensive strategies. In addition, knowledge gaps are identified toward improvements for experimental and strategy design, specifically highlighting the need to represent realistic exposure scenarios and to consider NM-specific concerns such as characterization, assay interferences, and standardization. Overall, this article aims to improve the reliability and utility of alternative testing methods and strategies for risk assessment of manufactured NMs. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  4. Expressing best practices in (risk) analysis and testing of safety-critical systems using patterns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Herzner, Wolfgang; Sieverding, Sven; Kacimi, Omar

    2014-01-01

    The continuing pervasion of our society with safety-critical cyber-physical systems not only demands for adequate (risk) analysis, testing and verification techniques, it also generates growing experience on their use, which can be considered as important as the tools themselves for their efficient...

  5. An Analysis Of Tensile Test Results to Assess the Innovation Risk for an Additive Manufacturing Technology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adamczak Stanisław

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to assess the innovation risk for an additive manufacturing process. The analysis was based on the results of static tensile tests obtained for specimens made of photocured resin. The assessment involved analyzing the measurement uncertainty by applying the FMEA method. The structure of the causes and effects of the discrepancies was illustrated using the Ishikawa diagram. The risk priority numbers were calculated. The uncertainty of the tensile test measurement was determined for three printing orientations. The results suggest that the material used to fabricate the tensile specimens shows clear anisotropy of the properties in relation to the printing direction.

  6. Enabling More than Moore: Accelerated Reliability Testing and Risk Analysis for Advanced Electronics Packaging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghaffarian, Reza; Evans, John W.

    2014-01-01

    For five decades, the semiconductor industry has distinguished itself by the rapid pace of improvement in miniaturization of electronics products-Moore's Law. Now, scaling hits a brick wall, a paradigm shift. The industry roadmaps recognized the scaling limitation and project that packaging technologies will meet further miniaturization needs or ak.a "More than Moore". This paper presents packaging technology trends and accelerated reliability testing methods currently being practiced. Then, it presents industry status on key advanced electronic packages, factors affecting accelerated solder joint reliability of area array packages, and IPC/JEDEC/Mil specifications for characterizations of assemblies under accelerated thermal and mechanical loading. Finally, it presents an examples demonstrating how Accelerated Testing and Analysis have been effectively employed in the development of complex spacecraft thereby reducing risk. Quantitative assessments necessarily involve the mathematics of probability and statistics. In addition, accelerated tests need to be designed which consider the desired risk posture and schedule for particular project. Such assessments relieve risks without imposing additional costs. and constraints that are not value added for a particular mission. Furthermore, in the course of development of complex systems, variances and defects will inevitably present themselves and require a decision concerning their disposition, necessitating quantitative assessments. In summary, this paper presents a comprehensive view point, from technology to systems, including the benefits and impact of accelerated testing in offsetting risk.

  7. Risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baron, J.H.; Nunez McLeod, J.; Rivera, S.S.

    1997-01-01

    This book contains a selection of research works performed in the CEDIAC Institute (Cuyo National University) in the area of Risk Analysis, with specific orientations to the subjects of uncertainty and sensitivity studies, software reliability, severe accident modeling, etc. This volume presents important material for all those researches who want to have an insight in the risk analysis field, as a tool to solution several problems frequently found in the engineering and applied sciences field, as well as for the academic teachers who want to keep up to date, including the new developments and improvements continuously arising in this field [es

  8. Advancing Risk Analysis for Nanoscale Materials: Report from an International Workshop on the Role of Alternative Testing Strategies for Advancement: Advancing Risk Analysis for Nanoscale Materials

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shatkin, J. A. [Vireo Advisors, Boston MA USA; Ong, Kimberly J. [Vireo Advisors, Boston MA USA; Beaudrie, Christian [Compass RM, Vancouver CA USA; Clippinger, Amy J. [PETA International Science Consortium Ltd, London UK; Hendren, Christine Ogilvie [Center for the Environmental Implications of NanoTechnology, Duke University, Durham NC USA; Haber, Lynne T. [TERA, Cincinnati OH USA; Hill, Myriam [Health Canada, Ottawa Canada; Holden, Patricia [UC Santa Barbara, Bren School of Environmental Science & Management, ERI, and UC CEIN, University of California, Santa Barbara CA USA; Kennedy, Alan J. [U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Environmental Laboratory, Vicksburg MS USA; Kim, Baram [Independent, Somerville MA USA; MacDonell, Margaret [Argonne National Laboratory, Environmental Science Division, Argonne IL USA; Powers, Christina M. [U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air and Radiation, Office of Transportation and Air Quality, Ann Arbor MI USA; Sharma, Monita [PETA International Science Consortium Ltd, London UK; Sheremeta, Lorraine [Alberta Ingenuity Labs, Edmonton Alberta Canada; Stone, Vicki [John Muir Building Gait 1 Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh Scotland UK; Sultan, Yasir [Environment Canada, Gatineau QC Canada; Turley, Audrey [ICF International, Durham NC USA; White, Ronald H. [RH White Consultants, Silver Spring MD USA

    2016-08-01

    The Society for Risk Analysis (SRA) has a history of bringing thought leadership to topics of emerging risk. In September 2014, the SRA Emerging Nanoscale Materials Specialty Group convened an international workshop to examine the use of alternative testing strategies (ATS) for manufactured nanomaterials (NM) from a risk analysis perspective. Experts in NM environmental health and safety, human health, ecotoxicology, regulatory compliance, risk analysis, and ATS evaluated and discussed the state of the science for in vitro and other alternatives to traditional toxicology testing for NM. Based on this review, experts recommended immediate and near-term actions that would advance ATS use in NM risk assessment. Three focal areas-human health, ecological health, and exposure considerations-shaped deliberations about information needs, priorities, and the next steps required to increase confidence in and use of ATS in NM risk assessment. The deliberations revealed that ATS are now being used for screening, and that, in the near term, ATS could be developed for use in read-across or categorization decision making within certain regulatory frameworks. Participants recognized that leadership is required from within the scientific community to address basic challenges, including standardizing materials, protocols, techniques and reporting, and designing experiments relevant to real-world conditions, as well as coordination and sharing of large-scale collaborations and data. Experts agreed that it will be critical to include experimental parameters that can support the development of adverse outcome pathways. Numerous other insightful ideas for investment in ATS emerged throughout the discussions and are further highlighted in this article.

  9. Aspects of risk analysis application to estimation of nuclear accidents and tests consequences and intervention management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Demin, V.F.; Hedemann-Jensen, P.; Rolevich, I.V.; Schneider, T.S.; Sobolev, B.G.

    1996-01-01

    For assessment of accident consequences and a post-accident management a risk analysis methodology and data bank (BARD) with allowance for radiation and non-radiation risk causes should be developed and used. Aspects of these needs and developments are considered. Some illustrative results of health risk estimation made with BARD for the Bryansk region territory with relatively high radioactive contamination from the Chernobyl accident are presented

  10. Seismic risk perception test

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crescimbene, Massimo; La Longa, Federica; Camassi, Romano; Pino, Nicola Alessandro

    2013-04-01

    The perception of risks involves the process of collecting, selecting and interpreting signals about uncertain impacts of events, activities or technologies. In the natural sciences the term risk seems to be clearly defined, it means the probability distribution of adverse effects, but the everyday use of risk has different connotations (Renn, 2008). The two terms, hazards and risks, are often used interchangeably by the public. Knowledge, experience, values, attitudes and feelings all influence the thinking and judgement of people about the seriousness and acceptability of risks. Within the social sciences however the terminology of 'risk perception' has become the conventional standard (Slovic, 1987). The mental models and other psychological mechanisms which people use to judge risks (such as cognitive heuristics and risk images) are internalized through social and cultural learning and constantly moderated (reinforced, modified, amplified or attenuated) by media reports, peer influences and other communication processes (Morgan et al., 2001). Yet, a theory of risk perception that offers an integrative, as well as empirically valid, approach to understanding and explaining risk perception is still missing". To understand the perception of risk is necessary to consider several areas: social, psychological, cultural, and their interactions. Among the various research in an international context on the perception of natural hazards, it seemed promising the approach with the method of semantic differential (Osgood, C.E., Suci, G., & Tannenbaum, P. 1957, The measurement of meaning. Urbana, IL: University of Illinois Press). The test on seismic risk perception has been constructed by the method of the semantic differential. To compare opposite adjectives or terms has been used a Likert's scale to seven point. The test consists of an informative part and six sections respectively dedicated to: hazard; vulnerability (home and workplace); exposed value (with reference to

  11. Reactor coolant system hydrostatic test and risk analysis for the first AP1000 unit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cao Hongjun; Yan Xiuping

    2013-01-01

    The cold hydrostatic test scheme of the primary coolant circuit, of the first AP1000 unit was described. Based on the up-stream design documents, standard specifications and design technical requirements, the select principle of test boundary was identified. The design requirements for water quality, pressure, temperature and temporary hydro-test pump were proposed. A reasonable argument for heating and pressurization rate, and cooling and depressurization rate was proposed. The possible problems and risks during the hydrostatic test were analyzed. This test scheme can provide guidance for the revisions and implementations of the follow-up test procedures. It is a good reference for hydrostatic tests of AP1000 units in the future in China. (authors)

  12. RISK ANALYSES USED IN ACCEPTANCE TESTING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oxana STOROJ

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This article is talking about risk based testing approach in user acceptance testing UAT (User Acceptance Testing. There are presented definitions of risk and risk based testing. In addition, we are talking about risks that can appear during UAT and we are describing the process of testing based on risks. We propose some techniques and methods of identifying risks such as using Brainstorming, Delphi method,probability analysis method and others. Also, risk traceability matrix is presented as a method of prioritizing risks.

  13. Risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Correa Lizarazu, X.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation Colombia risk evaluation experiences, sanitarian regulations evolution, chemical dangers food, biological dangers food, codex alimentarius, trade, industrial effects, dangers identification, data collection and risk profile

  14. Informed choice in direct-to-consumer genetic testing (DTCGT) websites: a content analysis of benefits, risks, and limitations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singleton, Amanda; Erby, Lori Hamby; Foisie, Kathryn V; Kaphingst, Kimberly A

    2012-06-01

    An informed choice about health-related direct-to-consumer genetic testing (DTCGT) requires knowledge of potential benefits, risks, and limitations. To understand the information that potential consumers of DTCGT services are exposed to on company websites, we conducted a content analysis of 23 health-related DTCGT websites. Results revealed that benefit statements outweighed risk and limitation statements 6 to 1. The most frequently described benefits were: 1) disease prevention, 2) consumer education, 3) personalized medical recommendations, and 4) the ability to make health decisions. Thirty-five percent of websites also presented at least one risk of testing. Seventy-eight percent of websites mentioned at least one limitation of testing. Based on this information, potential consumers might get an inaccurate picture of genetic testing which could impact their ability to make an informed decision. Practices that enhance the presentation of balanced information on DTCGT company websites should be encouraged.

  15. HIV testing and risk perceptions: a qualitative analysis of secondary school students in Kampala, Uganda

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George Aluzimbi

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to explore the perceptions of self-reported HIV testing and risk behavior among sexually active adolescents and youth in secondary schools in Kampala Uganda. This was a cross-sectional survey conducted between June and October 2010 among secondary school students in Kampala, Uganda. Forty eight (48 students across the 54 schools were purposively selected for the qualitative sub-study based on their responses to particular questions. We thematically analyzed 28 interviews for our qualitative study using Nvivo software. Drug and alcohol use coupled with peers pressure impaired students’ perceptions towards HIV risk and therefore increased their susceptibility to HIV risk behaviors. Of the 28 scripts analyzed, 82% (23/28 had ever had sexual partners, 79% (22/28 were currently sexually active, and 57% (16/28 had ever been tested for HIV. In conclusion, most adolescents interviewed did not perceive HIV testing to be important to HIV prevention and reported low perception of susceptibility to HIV infection. Development of an adolescent HIV prevention model is important in improving uptake of HIV services.

  16. Risk-benefit analysis for mass screening of breast cancer utilizing mammography as a screening test

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iinuma, T.A.; Tateno, Yukio

    1989-01-01

    Incidence of breast cancers in Japanese women is increasing steadily. Mass screening of breast cancer was started in Japan under auspices of Adult Health Promotion Act of the Japanese Government from 1987. As the first screening method, the palpation of breasts is employed at present, but it is expected to be replaced by the mammography. In this report, the risk-benefit analysis is presented between risk of breast carcinogenesis due to radiation and benefit of mass screening of breast cancer. The benefit of mass screening is taken as the net elongation of average life expectancy of women due to survival from breast cancers. The risk of mammography is taken as the net loss of average life expectancy of women due to breast carcinogenesis. In the latter, the latency time and plateau period of radiation carcinogenesis were taken into consideration in the calculation. The results show that the ages at which the benefit and risk become equal are between 30 and 35 years old when dose equivalent of mammography is between 10 and 20 mSv, that are conventionally used. However, the critical age will be reduced to 20 years old if the dose equivalent becomes 1 mSv. Therefore, it is strongly recommended that a low dose mammographic system should be developed in order to achieve 1 mSv for the mass screening of breast cancer of Japanese women. In author's opinion, this is quite feasible by employing a new digital radiography with imaging plate. (author)

  17. Advancing Risk Analysis for Nanoscale Materials: Report from an International Workshop on the Role of Alternative Testing Strategies for Advancement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shatkin, J A; Ong, Kimberly J; Beaudrie, Christian; Clippinger, Amy J; Hendren, Christine Ogilvie; Haber, Lynne T; Hill, Myriam; Holden, Patricia; Kennedy, Alan J; Kim, Baram; MacDonell, Margaret; Powers, Christina M; Sharma, Monita; Sheremeta, Lorraine; Stone, Vicki; Sultan, Yasir; Turley, Audrey; White, Ronald H

    2016-08-01

    The Society for Risk Analysis (SRA) has a history of bringing thought leadership to topics of emerging risk. In September 2014, the SRA Emerging Nanoscale Materials Specialty Group convened an international workshop to examine the use of alternative testing strategies (ATS) for manufactured nanomaterials (NM) from a risk analysis perspective. Experts in NM environmental health and safety, human health, ecotoxicology, regulatory compliance, risk analysis, and ATS evaluated and discussed the state of the science for in vitro and other alternatives to traditional toxicology testing for NM. Based on this review, experts recommended immediate and near-term actions that would advance ATS use in NM risk assessment. Three focal areas-human health, ecological health, and exposure considerations-shaped deliberations about information needs, priorities, and the next steps required to increase confidence in and use of ATS in NM risk assessment. The deliberations revealed that ATS are now being used for screening, and that, in the near term, ATS could be developed for use in read-across or categorization decision making within certain regulatory frameworks. Participants recognized that leadership is required from within the scientific community to address basic challenges, including standardizing materials, protocols, techniques and reporting, and designing experiments relevant to real-world conditions, as well as coordination and sharing of large-scale collaborations and data. Experts agreed that it will be critical to include experimental parameters that can support the development of adverse outcome pathways. Numerous other insightful ideas for investment in ATS emerged throughout the discussions and are further highlighted in this article. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  18. The application of quality risk management to the bacterial endotoxins test: use of hazard analysis and critical control points.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Annalaura, Carducci; Giulia, Davini; Stefano, Ceccanti

    2013-01-01

    Risk analysis is widely used in the pharmaceutical industry to manage production processes, validation activities, training, and other activities. Several methods of risk analysis are available (for example, failure mode and effects analysis, fault tree analysis), and one or more should be chosen and adapted to the specific field where they will be applied. Among the methods available, hazard analysis and critical control points (HACCP) is a methodology that has been applied since the 1960s, and whose areas of application have expanded over time from food to the pharmaceutical industry. It can be easily and successfully applied to several processes because its main feature is the identification, assessment, and control of hazards. It can be also integrated with other tools, such as fishbone diagram and flowcharting. The aim of this article is to show how HACCP can be used to manage an analytical process, propose how to conduct the necessary steps, and provide data templates necessary to document and useful to follow current good manufacturing practices. In the quality control process, risk analysis is a useful tool for enhancing the uniformity of technical choices and their documented rationale. Accordingly, it allows for more effective and economical laboratory management, is capable of increasing the reliability of analytical results, and enables auditors and authorities to better understand choices that have been made. The aim of this article is to show how hazard analysis and critical control points can be used to manage bacterial endotoxins testing and other analytical processes in a formal, clear, and detailed manner.

  19. Information security risk analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Peltier, Thomas R

    2001-01-01

    Effective Risk AnalysisQualitative Risk AnalysisValue AnalysisOther Qualitative MethodsFacilitated Risk Analysis Process (FRAP)Other Uses of Qualitative Risk AnalysisCase StudyAppendix A: QuestionnaireAppendix B: Facilitated Risk Analysis Process FormsAppendix C: Business Impact Analysis FormsAppendix D: Sample of ReportAppendix E: Threat DefinitionsAppendix F: Other Risk Analysis OpinionsIndex

  20. Risk factor screening to identify women requiring oral glucose tolerance testing to diagnose gestational diabetes: A systematic review and meta-analysis and analysis of two pregnancy cohorts.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diane Farrar

    Full Text Available Easily identifiable risk factors including: obesity and ethnicity at high risk of diabetes are commonly used to indicate which women should be offered the oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT to diagnose gestational diabetes (GDM. Evidence regarding these risk factors is limited however. We conducted a systematic review (SR and meta-analysis and individual participant data (IPD analysis to evaluate the performance of risk factors in identifying women with GDM.We searched MEDLINE, Medline in Process, Embase, Maternity and Infant Care and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL up to August 2016 and conducted additional reference checking. We included observational, cohort, case-control and cross-sectional studies reporting the performance characteristics of risk factors used to identify women at high risk of GDM. We had access to IPD from the Born in Bradford and Atlantic Diabetes in Pregnancy cohorts, all pregnant women in the two cohorts with data on risk factors and OGTT results were included.Twenty nine published studies with 211,698 women for the SR and a further 14,103 women from two birth cohorts (Born in Bradford and the Atlantic Diabetes in Pregnancy study for the IPD analysis were included. Six studies assessed the screening performance of guidelines; six examined combinations of risk factors; eight evaluated the number of risk factors and nine examined prediction models or scores. Meta-analysis using data from published studies suggests that irrespective of the method used, risk factors do not identify women with GDM well. Using IPD and combining risk factors to produce the highest sensitivities, results in low specificities (and so higher false positives. Strategies that use the risk factors of age (>25 or >30 and BMI (>25 or 30 perform as well as other strategies with additional risk factors included.Risk factor screening methods are poor predictors of which pregnant women will be diagnosed with GDM. A simple

  1. Test reactor risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jennings, R.H.; Rawlins, J.K.; Stewart, M.E.

    1976-04-01

    A methodology has been developed for the identification of accident initiating events and the fault modeling of systems, including common mode identification, as these methods are applied in overall test reactor risk assessment. The methods are exemplified by a determination of risks to a loss of primary coolant flow in the Engineering Test Reactor

  2. Probabilistic risk analysis for Test Area North Hot Shop Storage Pool Facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meale, B.M.; Satterwhite, D.G.

    1990-01-01

    A storage pool facility used for storing spent fuel and radioactive debris from the Three Mile Island (TMI) accident was evaluated to determine the risk associated with its normal operations. Several hazards were identified and examined to determine if any any credible accident scenarios existed. Expected annual occurrence frequencies were calculated for hazards for which accident scenarios were identified through use of fault trees modeling techniques. Fault tree models were developed for two hazards: (1) increased radiation field and (2) spread of contamination. The models incorporated facets of the operations within the facility as well as the facility itself. 6 refs

  3. Analysis of KC-46 Live-Fire Risk Mitigation Program Testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-03-01

    the use of real hardware such as electrohydraulic actuators , electrical units, and converter regulators (Andrus, 2010). The only feasible method for...worked with the MQ-9 as a test engineer and analyst for the programs IOT &E, RQ-4 as lead engineer and program lead for the block 3 and the block 4

  4. Advanced Test Reactor probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atkinson, S.A.; Eide, S.A.; Khericha, S.T.; Thatcher, T.A.

    1993-01-01

    This report discusses Level 1 probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) incorporating a full-scope external events analysis which has been completed for the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) located at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory

  5. Foundations of Risk Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Aven, Terje

    2012-01-01

    Foundations of Risk Analysis presents the issues core to risk analysis - understanding what risk means, expressing risk, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real problems. The author provides the readers with the knowledge and basic thinking they require to successfully manage risk and uncertainty to support decision making. This updated edition reflects recent developments on risk and uncertainty concepts, representations and treatment. New material in Foundations of Risk Analysis includes:An up to date presentation of how to understand, define and

  6. Analysis of the risk of injury to firefighters based on a functional assessment using the Functional Movement Screen test

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krystian Kałużny

    2017-05-01

    Conclusions. 1. In examined firefighters, abnormalities in basic motor patterns are observed in the FMS test. 2. The risk of injury in FMS surveyed firefighters is very high. 3. The FMS test results correlate with BMI, work experience and age of firefighters. 4. No correlation was found between injuries and injuries and physical activity in firefighters and the FMS test result.

  7. Observations on risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, W.A. Jr.

    1979-11-01

    This paper briefly describes WASH 1400 and the Lewis report. It attempts to define basic concepts such as risk and risk analysis, common mode failure, and rare event. Several probabilistic models which go beyond the WASH 1400 methodology are introduced; the common characteristic of these models is that they recognize explicitly that risk analysis is time dependent whereas WASH 1400 takes a per demand failure rate approach which obscures the important fact that accidents are time related. Further, the presentation of a realistic risk analysis should recognize that there are various risks which compete with one another for the lives of the individuals at risk. A way of doing this is suggested

  8. Health-related direct-to-consumer genetic tests: a public health assessment and analysis of practices related to Internet-based tests for risk of thrombosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goddard, K A B; Robitaille, J; Dowling, N F; Parrado, A R; Fishman, J; Bradley, L A; Moore, C A; Khoury, M J

    2009-01-01

    Recent years have seen increased concern about direct-to-consumer (DTC) genetic testing (i.e., the sale and use of genetic tests without involving a health care provider). Numerous professional organizations have developed policies in this area. However, little systematic evidence exists to inform public policy about these tests. We conducted a systematic search to identify genetic tests that are sold DTC without involving a health care provider. We evaluated the practices of companies offering DTC genetic tests for risk of thrombosis using criteria from multiple sources and a minimal set of key practices. We identified 84 instances of currently available health-related DTC genetic tests sold on 27 Web sites; the most common were for pharmacogenomics (12), risk of thrombosis (10), and nutrigenomics (10). For the DTC genetic tests for risk of thrombosis, we found low adherence to recommendations. Online information was frequently incomplete and had low agreement with professional recommendations. Our findings document the rapid growth in the availability of health-related DTC genetic tests and highlight the need to improve the delivery of DTC genetic tests. A major implication of this study is the need for the scientific and medical community to develop consistent recommendations to increase their impact. Copyright 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  9. Risk-informed importance analysis of in-service testing components for Ulchin units 3 and 4

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, D. I.; Kim, K. Y.; Ha, J. J.

    2001-01-01

    In this paper, we perform risk-informed importance analysis of in-service tesing (IST) components for Ulchin Units 3 and 4. The importance analysis using PSA is performed through Level 1 internal and external, shutdown/low power operation, and Level 2 internal PSA. The sensitivity analysis is also performed. For the components not modeled in PSA logic, we develop and apply a new integrated importance analysis method. The importance analysis results for IST valves show that 167 (26.55%) of 629 IST valves are HSSCs and 462 (73.45%) are LSSCs. The importance analysis results for IST pumps show that 28 (70%) of 40 IST pumps are HSSCs and 12 (30%) are KSSCs

  10. Is risk analysis scientific?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansson, Sven Ove; Aven, Terje

    2014-07-01

    This article discusses to what extent risk analysis is scientific in view of a set of commonly used definitions and criteria. We consider scientific knowledge to be characterized by its subject matter, its success in developing the best available knowledge in its fields of study, and the epistemic norms and values that guide scientific investigations. We proceed to assess the field of risk analysis according to these criteria. For this purpose, we use a model for risk analysis in which science is used as a base for decision making on risks, which covers the five elements evidence, knowledge base, broad risk evaluation, managerial review and judgment, and the decision; and that relates these elements to the domains experts and decisionmakers, and to the domains fact-based or value-based. We conclude that risk analysis is a scientific field of study, when understood as consisting primarily of (i) knowledge about risk-related phenomena, processes, events, etc., and (ii) concepts, theories, frameworks, approaches, principles, methods and models to understand, assess, characterize, communicate, and manage risk, in general and for specific applications (the instrumental part). © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  11. Risk-based screening analysis of ground water contaminated by radionuclides introduced at the Nevada Test Site (NTS)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daniels, J.I.; Anspaugh, L.R.; Andricevic, R.; Jacobson, R.L.

    1993-06-01

    The Nevada Test Site (NTS) is located in the southwestern part of Nevada, about 105 km (65 mi) northwest of the city of Las Vegas. Underground tests of nuclear weapons devices have been conducted at the NTS since late 1962 and ground water beneath the NTS has been contaminated with radionuclides produced by these tests. This concern prompted this examination of the potential health risk to these individuals from drinking the contaminated ground water either at a location on the NTS (assuming loss of institutional control after 100 y) or at one offsite (considering groundwater migration). For the purpose of this assessment, a representative mix of the radionuclides of importance and their concentrations in ground water beneath the NTS were identified from measurements of radionuclide concentrations in groundwater samples-of-opportunity collected at the NTS. Transport of radionuclide-contaminated ground water offsite was evaluated using a travel-time-transport approach. At both locations of interest, potential human-health risk was calculated for an individual ingesting radionuclide-contaminated ground water over the course of a 70-y lifetime. Uncertainties about human physiological attributes, as well as about estimates of physical detriment per unit of radioactive material, were quantified and incorporated into the estimates of risk. The maximum potential excess lifetime risk of cancer mortality estimated for an individual at the offsite location ranges from 7 x 10 -7 to 1 x 10 -5 , and at the onsite location ranges from 3 x 10 -3 to 2 x 10 -2 . Both the offsite and the onsite estimates of risk are dominated by the lifetime doses from tritium. For the assessment of radionuclides in ground water, the critical uncertainty is their concentration today under the entire NTS

  12. Comparative risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niehaus, F.

    1988-01-01

    In this paper, the risks of various energy systems are discussed considering severe accidents analysis, particularly the probabilistic safety analysis, and probabilistic safety criteria, and the applications of these criteria and analysis. The comparative risk analysis has demonstrated that the largest source of risk in every society is from daily small accidents. Nevertheless, we have to be more concerned about severe accidents. The comparative risk analysis of five different energy systems (coal, oil, gas, LWR and STEC (Solar)) for the public has shown that the main sources of risks are coal and oil. The latest comparative risk study of various energy has been conducted in the USA and has revealed that the number of victims from coal is 42 as many than victims from nuclear. A study for severe accidents from hydro-dams in United States has estimated the probability of dam failures at 1 in 10,000 years and the number of victims between 11,000 and 260,000. The average occupational risk from coal is one fatal accident in 1,000 workers/year. The probabilistic safety analysis is a method that can be used to assess nuclear energy risks, and to analyze the severe accidents, and to model all possible accident sequences and consequences. The 'Fault tree' analysis is used to know the probability of failure of the different systems at each point of accident sequences and to calculate the probability of risks. After calculating the probability of failure, the criteria for judging the numerical results have to be developed, that is the quantitative and qualitative goals. To achieve these goals, several systems have been devised by various countries members of AIEA. The probabilistic safety ana-lysis method has been developed by establishing a computer program permit-ting to know different categories of safety related information. 19 tabs. (author)

  13. Information Security Risk Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Peltier, Thomas R

    2010-01-01

    Offers readers with the knowledge and the skill-set needed to achieve a highly effective risk analysis assessment. This title demonstrates how to identify threats and then determine if those threats pose a real risk. It is suitable for industry and academia professionals.

  14. A Risk Analysis Methodology to Address Human and Organizational Factors in Offshore Drilling Safety: With an Emphasis on Negative Pressure Test

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tabibzadeh, Maryam

    According to the final Presidential National Commission report on the BP Deepwater Horizon (DWH) blowout, there is need to "integrate more sophisticated risk assessment and risk management practices" in the oil industry. Reviewing the literature of the offshore drilling industry indicates that most of the developed risk analysis methodologies do not fully and more importantly, systematically address the contribution of Human and Organizational Factors (HOFs) in accident causation. This is while results of a comprehensive study, from 1988 to 2005, of more than 600 well-documented major failures in offshore structures show that approximately 80% of those failures were due to HOFs. In addition, lack of safety culture, as an issue related to HOFs, have been identified as a common contributing cause of many accidents in this industry. This dissertation introduces an integrated risk analysis methodology to systematically assess the critical role of human and organizational factors in offshore drilling safety. The proposed methodology in this research focuses on a specific procedure called Negative Pressure Test (NPT), as the primary method to ascertain well integrity during offshore drilling, and analyzes the contributing causes of misinterpreting such a critical test. In addition, the case study of the BP Deepwater Horizon accident and their conducted NPT is discussed. The risk analysis methodology in this dissertation consists of three different approaches and their integration constitutes the big picture of my whole methodology. The first approach is the comparative analysis of a "standard" NPT, which is proposed by the author, with the test conducted by the DWH crew. This analysis contributes to identifying the involved discrepancies between the two test procedures. The second approach is a conceptual risk assessment framework to analyze the causal factors of the identified mismatches in the previous step, as the main contributors of negative pressure test

  15. Debris flow risk mitigation by the means of rigid and flexible barriers – experimental tests and impact analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Canelli

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available The impact of a debris flow on a structure can have disastrous effects because of the enormous destructive potential of this type of phenomenon. Although the introduction of risk mitigation structures such as the Sabo Dam, the filter dam and more recently flexible barriers is usual, there are very few methods that are universally recognized for the safe design of such structures. This study presents the results of experimental tests, conducted with the use of a specifically created flume, in order to obtain detailed knowledge of the mechanical aspects, and to analyze the dynamics of the impact of a debris flow on different types of structures. The analyses of the tests, together with the calculation of the thrust caused by the flow, have made it possible to analyze the dynamics of the impact, which has shown differing effects, on the basis of the type of barrier that has been installed.

  16. Component of the risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martinez, I.; Campon, G.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation reviews issues like analysis of risk (Codex), management risk, preliminary activities manager, relationship between government and industries, microbiological danger and communication of risk

  17. Unsharpness-risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Preyssl, C.

    1986-01-01

    Safety analysis provides the only tool for evaluation and quantification of rare or hypothetical events leading to system failure. So far probability theory has been used for the fault- and event-tree methodology. The phenomenon of uncertainties constitutes an important aspect in risk analysis. Uncertainties can be classified as originating from 'randomness' or 'fuzziness'. Probability theory addresses randomness only. The use of 'fuzzy set theory' makes it possible to include both types of uncertainty in the mathematical model of risk analysis. Thus the 'fuzzy fault tree' is expressed in 'possibilistic' terms implying a range of simplifications and improvements. 'Human failure' and 'conditionality' can be treated correctly. Only minimum-maximum relations are used to combine the possibility distributions of events. Various event-classifications facilitate the interpretation of the results. The method is demonstrated by application to a TRIGA-research reactor. Uncertainty as an implicit part of 'fuzzy risk' can be quantified explicitly using an 'uncertainty measure'. Based on this the 'degree of relative compliance' with a quantizative safety goal can be defined for a particular risk. The introduction of 'weighting functionals' guarantees the consideration of the importances attached to different parts of the risk exceeding or complying with the standard. The comparison of two reference systems is demonstrated in a case study. It is concluded that any application of the 'fuzzy risk analysis' has to be free of any hypostatization when reducing subjective to objective information. (Author)

  18. Adversarial risk analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Banks, David L; Rios Insua, David

    2015-01-01

    Flexible Models to Analyze Opponent Behavior A relatively new area of research, adversarial risk analysis (ARA) informs decision making when there are intelligent opponents and uncertain outcomes. Adversarial Risk Analysis develops methods for allocating defensive or offensive resources against intelligent adversaries. Many examples throughout illustrate the application of the ARA approach to a variety of games and strategic situations. The book shows decision makers how to build Bayesian models for the strategic calculation of their opponents, enabling decision makers to maximize their expected utility or minimize their expected loss. This new approach to risk analysis asserts that analysts should use Bayesian thinking to describe their beliefs about an opponent's goals, resources, optimism, and type of strategic calculation, such as minimax and level-k thinking. Within that framework, analysts then solve the problem from the perspective of the opponent while placing subjective probability distributions on a...

  19. Analysis of Gauntlet Test Performance and Injury Risk in Intercollegiate Division I Female Soccer (Football) Players: A Retrospective Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ness, Brandon M; Zimney, Kory; Schweinle, William E

    2017-11-01

    Injury risk factors and relevant assessments have been identified in women's soccer athletes. Other tests assess fitness (eg, the Gauntlet Test [GT]). However, little empirical support exists for the utility of the GT to predict time loss injury. To examine the GT as a predictor of injury in intercollegiate Division I female soccer athletes. Retrospective, nonexperimental descriptive cohort study. College athletic facilities. 71 female Division I soccer athletes (age 19.6 ± 1.24 y, BMI 23.0 ± 2.19). GT, demographic, and injury data were collected over 3 consecutive seasons. GT trials were administered by coaching staff each preseason. Participation in team-based activities (practices, matches) was restricted until a successful GT trial. Soccer-related injuries that resulted in time loss from participation were recorded. 71 subjects met the inclusion criteria, with 12 lower body time loss injuries sustained. Logistic regression models indicated that with each unsuccessful GT attempt, the odds of sustaining an injury increased by a factor of 3.5 (P soccer athletes in this cohort. Further investigation into the appropriate application of the GT for injury prediction is warranted given the scope of this study.

  20. Environmental risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lima-e-Silva, Pedro Paulo de

    1996-01-01

    The conventional Risk Analysis (RA) relates usually a certain undesired event frequency with its consequences. Such technique is used nowadays in Brazil to analyze accidents and their consequences strictly under the human approach, valuing loss of human equipment, human structures and human lives, without considering the damage caused to natural resources that keep life possible on Earth. This paradigm was developed primarily because of the Homo sapiens' lack of perception upon the natural web needed to sustain his own life. In reality, the Brazilian professionals responsible today for licensing, auditing and inspecting environmental aspects of human activities face huge difficulties in making technical specifications and procedures leading to acceptable levels of impact, furthermore considering the intrinsic difficulties to define those levels. Therefore, in Brazil the RA technique is a weak tool for licensing for many reasons, and of them are its short scope (only accident considerations) and wrong a paradigm (only human direct damages). A paper from the author about the former was already proposed to the 7th International Conference on Environmetrics, past July'96, USP-SP. This one discusses the extension of the risk analysis concept to take into account environmental consequences, transforming the conventional analysis into a broader methodology named here as Environmental Risk Analysis. (author)

  1. Risk effectiveness evaluation of surveillance testing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, I.S.; Samanta, P.K.; Martorell, S.; Vesely, W.E.

    1991-01-01

    To address the concerns about nuclear power plant surveillance tests, i.e., their adverse safety impact due to negative effects and too burdensome requirements, it is necessary to evaluate the safety significance or risk effectiveness of such tests explicitly considering both negative and positive effects. This paper defines the negative effects of surveillance testing from a risk perspective, and then presents a methodology to quantify the negative risk impact, i.e., the risk penalty or risk increase caused by the test. The method focuses on two important kinds of negative effects, namely, test-caused transients and test-caused equipment degradations. The concepts and quantitative methods for the risk evaluation can be used in the decision-making process to establish the safety significance of the tests and to screen the plant-specific surveillance test requirements. 6 refs., 2 figs., 2 tabs

  2. Risk analysis and reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uppuluri, V.R.R.

    1979-01-01

    Mathematical foundations of risk analysis are addressed. The importance of having the same probability space in order to compare different experiments is pointed out. Then the following topics are discussed: consequences as random variables with infinite expectations; the phenomenon of rare events; series-parallel systems and different kinds of randomness that could be imposed on such systems; and the problem of consensus of estimates of expert opinion

  3. Mare Risk Analysis monitor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fuente Prieto, I.; Alonso, P.; Carretero Fernandino, J. A.

    2000-01-01

    The Nuclear Safety Council's requirement that Spanish power plants comply with the requirements of the Maintenance Rule associated with plant risk assessment during power operation, arising from the partial unavailability of systems due to the maintenance activities, has led to need for additional tools to facilitate compliance with said requirements. While the impact on risk produced by individual equipment unavailabilities can easily be evaluated, either qualitatively or quantitatively, the process becomes more complicated when un programmed unavailabilities simultaneously occur in various systems, making it necessary to evaluate their functional impact. It is especially complex in the case of support systems that can affect the functionality of multiple systems. In view of the above, a computer application has been developed that is capable of providing the operator with quick answers based on the specific plant model in order to allow fast risk assessment using the information compiled as part of the Probabilistic Safety Analysis. The paper describes the most important characteristics of this application and the basic design requirements of the MARE Risk Monitor. (Author)

  4. Methods for Risk Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alverbro, Karin

    2010-01-01

    Many decision-making situations today affect humans and the environment. In practice, many such decisions are made without an overall view and prioritise one or other of the two areas. Now and then these two areas of regulation come into conflict, e.g. the best alternative as regards environmental considerations is not always the best from a human safety perspective and vice versa. This report was prepared within a major project with the aim of developing a framework in which both the environmental aspects and the human safety aspects are integrated, and decisions can be made taking both fields into consideration. The safety risks have to be analysed in order to be successfully avoided and one way of doing this is to use different kinds of risk analysis methods. There is an abundance of existing methods to choose from and new methods are constantly being developed. This report describes some of the risk analysis methods currently available for analysing safety and examines the relationships between them. The focus here is mainly on human safety aspects

  5. A Vehicle Management End-to-End Testing and Analysis Platform for Validation of Mission and Fault Management Algorithms to Reduce Risk for NASA's Space Launch System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trevino, Luis; Johnson, Stephen B.; Patterson, Jonathan; Teare, David

    2015-01-01

    &MA, Structures and Environments, GNC, Orion, the Crew Office, Flight Operations, and Ground Operations by assessing performance of the M&FM algorithms in terms of their ability to reduce Loss of Mission and Loss of Crew probabilities. In addition, through state machine and diagnostic modeling, analysis efforts investigate a broader suite of failure effects and detection and responses that can be tested in VMET and confirm that responses do not create additional risks or cause undesired states through interactive dynamic effects with other algorithms and systems. VMET further contributes to risk reduction by prototyping and exercising the M&FM algorithms early in their implementation and without any inherent hindrances such as meeting FSW processor scheduling constraints due to their target platform - ARINC 653 partitioned OS, resource limitations, and other factors related to integration with other subsystems not directly involved with M&FM. The plan for VMET encompasses testing the original M&FM algorithms coded in the same C++ language and state machine architectural concepts as that used by Flight Software. This enables the development of performance standards and test cases to characterize the M&FM algorithms and sets a benchmark from which to measure the effectiveness of M&FM algorithms performance in the FSW development and test processes. This paper is outlined in a systematic fashion analogous to a lifecycle process flow for engineering development of algorithms into software and testing. Section I describes the NASA SLS M&FM context, presenting the current infrastructure, leading principles, methods, and participants. Section II defines the testing philosophy of the M&FM algorithms as related to VMET followed by section III, which presents the modeling methods of the algorithms to be tested and validated in VMET. Its details are then further presented in section IV followed by Section V presenting integration, test status, and state analysis. Finally, section VI

  6. Probabilistic risk analysis and terrorism risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ezell, Barry Charles; Bennett, Steven P; von Winterfeldt, Detlof; Sokolowski, John; Collins, Andrew J

    2010-04-01

    Since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and the subsequent establishment of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), considerable efforts have been made to estimate the risks of terrorism and the cost effectiveness of security policies to reduce these risks. DHS, industry, and the academic risk analysis communities have all invested heavily in the development of tools and approaches that can assist decisionmakers in effectively allocating limited resources across the vast array of potential investments that could mitigate risks from terrorism and other threats to the homeland. Decisionmakers demand models, analyses, and decision support that are useful for this task and based on the state of the art. Since terrorism risk analysis is new, no single method is likely to meet this challenge. In this article we explore a number of existing and potential approaches for terrorism risk analysis, focusing particularly on recent discussions regarding the applicability of probabilistic and decision analytic approaches to bioterrorism risks and the Bioterrorism Risk Assessment methodology used by the DHS and criticized by the National Academies and others.

  7. LESSONS FROM A RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS OF A 5-YR PERIOD OF PRESHIPMENT TESTING AT SAN DIEGO ZOO: A RISK-BASED APPROACH TO PRESHIPMENT TESTING MAY BENEFIT ANIMAL WELFARE.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marinkovich, Matt; Wallace, Chelsea; Morris, Pat J; Rideout, Bruce; Pye, Geoffrey W

    2016-03-01

    The preshipment examination, with associated transmissible disease testing, has become standard practice in the movement of animals between zoos. An alternative disease risk-based approach, based on a comprehensive surveillance program including necropsy and preventive medicine examination testing and data, has been in practice since 2006 between the San Diego Zoo and San Diego Zoo Safari Park. A retrospective analysis, evaluating comprehensive necropsy data and preshipment testing over a 5-yr study period, was performed to determine the viability of this model for use with sending animals to other institutions. Animals (607 birds, 704 reptiles and amphibians, and 341 mammals) were shipped to 116 Association of Zoos and Aquariums (AZA)-accredited and 29 non-AZA-accredited institutions. The evaluation showed no evidence of the specific transmissible diseases tested for during the preshipment exam being present within the San Diego Zoo collection. We suggest that a risk-based animal and institution-specific approach to transmissible disease preshipment testing is more cost effective and is in the better interest of animal welfare than the current industry standard of dogmatic preshipment testing.

  8. A Vehicle Management End-to-End Testing and Analysis Platform for Validation of Mission and Fault Management Algorithms to Reduce Risk for NASAs Space Launch System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trevino, Luis; Johnson, Stephen B.; Patterson, Jonathan; Teare, David

    2015-01-01

    ) early in the development lifecycle for the SLS program, NASA formed the M&FM team as part of the Integrated Systems Health Management and Automation Branch under the Spacecraft Vehicle Systems Department at the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). To support the development of the FM algorithms, the VMET developed by the M&FM team provides the ability to integrate the algorithms, perform test cases, and integrate vendor-supplied physics-based launch vehicle (LV) subsystem models. Additionally, the team has developed processes for implementing and validating the M&FM algorithms for concept validation and risk reduction. The flexibility of the VMET capabilities enables thorough testing of the M&FM algorithms by providing configurable suites of both nominal and off-nominal test cases to validate the developed algorithms utilizing actual subsystem models such as MPS, GNC, and others. One of the principal functions of VMET is to validate the M&FM algorithms and substantiate them with performance baselines for each of the target vehicle subsystems in an independent platform exterior to the flight software test and validation processes. In any software development process there is inherent risk in the interpretation and implementation of concepts from requirements and test cases into flight software compounded with potential human errors throughout the development and regression testing lifecycle. Risk reduction is addressed by the M&FM group but in particular by the Analysis Team working with other organizations such as S&MA, Structures and Environments, GNC, Orion, Crew Office, Flight Operations, and Ground Operations by assessing performance of the M&FM algorithms in terms of their ability to reduce Loss of Mission (LOM) and Loss of Crew (LOC) probabilities. In addition, through state machine and diagnostic modeling, analysis efforts investigate a broader suite of failure effects and associated detection and responses to be tested in VMET to ensure reliable failure

  9. Risk Based Optimal Fatigue Testing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Faber, M.H.; Kroon, I.B.

    1992-01-01

    Optimal fatigue life testing of materials is considered. Based on minimization of the total expected costs of a mechanical component a strategy is suggested to determine the optimal stress range levels for which additional experiments are to be performed together with an optimal value...

  10. Testing Hypotheses on Risk Factors for Scientific Misconduct via Matched-Control Analysis of Papers Containing Problematic Image Duplications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fanelli, Daniele; Costas, Rodrigo; Fang, Ferric C; Casadevall, Arturo; Bik, Elisabeth M

    2018-02-19

    It is commonly hypothesized that scientists are more likely to engage in data falsification and fabrication when they are subject to pressures to publish, when they are not restrained by forms of social control, when they work in countries lacking policies to tackle scientific misconduct, and when they are male. Evidence to test these hypotheses, however, is inconclusive due to the difficulties of obtaining unbiased data. Here we report a pre-registered test of these four hypotheses, conducted on papers that were identified in a previous study as containing problematic image duplications through a systematic screening of the journal PLoS ONE. Image duplications were classified into three categories based on their complexity, with category 1 being most likely to reflect unintentional error and category 3 being most likely to reflect intentional fabrication. We tested multiple parameters connected to the hypotheses above with a matched-control paradigm, by collecting two controls for each paper containing duplications. Category 1 duplications were mostly not associated with any of the parameters tested, as was predicted based on the assumption that these duplications were mostly not due to misconduct. Categories 2 and 3, however, exhibited numerous statistically significant associations. Results of univariable and multivariable analyses support the hypotheses that academic culture, peer control, cash-based publication incentives and national misconduct policies might affect scientific integrity. No clear support was found for the "pressures to publish" hypothesis. Female authors were found to be equally likely to publish duplicated images compared to males. Country-level parameters generally exhibited stronger effects than individual-level parameters, because developing countries were significantly more likely to produce problematic image duplications. This suggests that promoting good research practices in all countries should be a priority for the international

  11. Gene panel testing for inherited cancer risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Michael J; Forman, Andrea D; Pilarski, Robert; Wiesner, Georgia; Giri, Veda N

    2014-09-01

    Next-generation sequencing technologies have ushered in the capability to assess multiple genes in parallel for genetic alterations that may contribute to inherited risk for cancers in families. Thus, gene panel testing is now an option in the setting of genetic counseling and testing for cancer risk. This article describes the many gene panel testing options clinically available to assess inherited cancer susceptibility, the potential advantages and challenges associated with various types of panels, clinical scenarios in which gene panels may be particularly useful in cancer risk assessment, and testing and counseling considerations. Given the potential issues for patients and their families, gene panel testing for inherited cancer risk is recommended to be offered in conjunction or consultation with an experienced cancer genetic specialist, such as a certified genetic counselor or geneticist, as an integral part of the testing process. Copyright © 2014 by the National Comprehensive Cancer Network.

  12. Evaluation of test intervals strategies with a risk monitor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soerman, J.

    2005-01-01

    The Swedish nuclear power utility Oskarshamn Power Group (OKG), is investigating how the use of a risk monitor can facilitate and improve risk-informed decision-making at their nuclear power plants. The intent is to evaluate if risk-informed decision-making can be accepted. A pilot project was initiated and carried out in 2004. The project included investigating if a risk monitor can be used for optimising test intervals for diesel- and gas turbine generators with regard to risk level. The Oskarhamn 2 (O2), PSA Level 1 model was converted into a risk monitor using RiskSpectrum RiskWatcher (RSRW) software. The converted PSA model included the complete PSA model for the power operation mode. RSRW then performs a complete requantification for every analysis. Time dependent reliability data are taken into account, i.e. a shorter test interval will increases the components availability (possibility to e.g. start on demand). The converted O2 model was then used to investigate whether it would be possible to balance longer test intervals for diesel generators, gas turbine generators and high pressure injection system with shorter test intervals for the low pressure injection system, while maintaining a low risk level at the plant. The results show that a new mixture of test intervals can be implemented with only marginally changes in the risk calculated with the risk monitor model. The results indicate that the total number of test activities for the systems included in the pilot study could be reduced by 20% with a maintained level of risk. A risk monitor taking into account the impact from test intervals in availability calculations for components is well suited for evaluation of test interval strategies. It also enables the analyst to evaluate the risk level over a period of time including the impact the actual status of the plant may have on the risk level. (author)

  13. Life-Cycle Cost and Risk Analysis of Alternative Configurations for Shipping Low-Level Radioactive Waste to the Nevada Test Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    PM Daling; SB Ross; BM Biwer

    1999-01-01

    The Nevada Test Site (NTS) is a major receiver of low-level radioactive waste (LLW) for disposal. Currently, all LLW received at NTS is shipped by truck. The trucks use highway routes to NTS that pass through the Las Vegas Valley and over Hoover Dam, which is a concern of local stakeholder groups in the State of Nevada. Rail service offers the opportunity to reduce transportation risks and costs, according to the Waste Management Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (WM-PEIS). However, NTS and some DOE LLW generator sites are not served with direct rail service so intermodal transport is under consideration. Intermodal transport involves transport via two modes, in this case truck and rail, from the generator sites to NTS. LLW shipping containers would be transferred between trucks and railcars at intermodal transfer points near the LLW generator sites, NTS, or both. An Environmental Assessment (EA)for Intermodal Transportation of Low-Level Radioactive Waste to the Nevada Test Site (referred to as the NTSIntermodal -M) has been prepared to determine whether there are environmental impacts to alterations to the current truck routing or use of intermodal facilities within the State of Nevada. However, an analysis of the potential impacts outside the State of Nevada are not addressed in the NTS Intermodal EA. This study examines the rest of the transportation network between LLW generator sites and the NTS and evaluates the costs, risks, and feasibility of integrating intermodal shipments into the LLW transportation system. This study evaluates alternative transportation system configurations for NTS approved and potential generators based on complex-wide LLW load information. Technical judgments relative to the availability of DOE LLW generators to ship from their sites by rail were developed. Public and worker risk and life-cycle cost components are quantified. The study identifies and evaluates alternative scenarios that increase the use of rail (intermodal

  14. Life-Cycle Cost and Risk Analysis of Alternative Configurations for Shipping Low-Level Radioactive Waste to the Nevada Test Site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    PM Daling; SB Ross; BM Biwer

    1999-12-17

    The Nevada Test Site (NTS) is a major receiver of low-level radioactive waste (LLW) for disposal. Currently, all LLW received at NTS is shipped by truck. The trucks use highway routes to NTS that pass through the Las Vegas Valley and over Hoover Dam, which is a concern of local stakeholder groups in the State of Nevada. Rail service offers the opportunity to reduce transportation risks and costs, according to the Waste Management Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (WM-PEIS). However, NTS and some DOE LLW generator sites are not served with direct rail service so intermodal transport is under consideration. Intermodal transport involves transport via two modes, in this case truck and rail, from the generator sites to NTS. LLW shipping containers would be transferred between trucks and railcars at intermodal transfer points near the LLW generator sites, NTS, or both. An Environmental Assessment (EA)for Intermodal Transportation of Low-Level Radioactive Waste to the Nevada Test Site (referred to as the NTSIntermodal -M) has been prepared to determine whether there are environmental impacts to alterations to the current truck routing or use of intermodal facilities within the State of Nevada. However, an analysis of the potential impacts outside the State of Nevada are not addressed in the NTS Intermodal EA. This study examines the rest of the transportation network between LLW generator sites and the NTS and evaluates the costs, risks, and feasibility of integrating intermodal shipments into the LLW transportation system. This study evaluates alternative transportation system configurations for NTS approved and potential generators based on complex-wide LLW load information. Technical judgments relative to the availability of DOE LLW generators to ship from their sites by rail were developed. Public and worker risk and life-cycle cost components are quantified. The study identifies and evaluates alternative scenarios that increase the use of rail (intermodal

  15. International Conference on Risk Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Oliveira, Teresa; Rigas, Alexandros; Gulati, Sneh

    2015-01-01

    This book covers the latest results in the field of risk analysis. Presented topics include probabilistic models in cancer research, models and methods in longevity, epidemiology of cancer risk, engineering reliability and economical risk problems. The contributions of this volume originate from the 5th International Conference on Risk Analysis (ICRA 5). The conference brought together researchers and practitioners working in the field of risk analysis in order to present new theoretical and computational methods with applications in biology, environmental sciences, public health, economics and finance.

  16. Genetic testing and your cancer risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... patientinstructions/000842.htm Genetic testing and your cancer risk To use the sharing features on this page, ... urac.org). URAC's accreditation program is an independent audit to verify that A.D.A.M. follows ...

  17. Semen Analysis Test

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Sources Ask Us Also Known As Sperm Analysis Sperm Count Seminal Fluid Analysis Formal Name Semen Analysis This ... semen Viscosity—consistency or thickness of the semen Sperm count—total number of sperm Sperm concentration (density)—number ...

  18. Advanced Test Reactor outage risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thatcher, T.A.; Atkinson, S.A.

    1997-01-01

    Beginning in 1997, risk assessment was performed for each Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) outage aiding the coordination of plant configuration and work activities (maintenance, construction projects, etc.) to minimize the risk of reactor fuel damage and to improve defense-in-depth. The risk assessment activities move beyond simply meeting Technical Safety Requirements to increase the awareness of risk sensitive configurations, to focus increased attention on the higher risk activities, and to seek cost-effective design or operational changes that reduce risk. A detailed probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) had been performed to assess the risk of fuel damage during shutdown operations including heavy load handling. This resulted in several design changes to improve safety; however, evaluation of individual outages had not been performed previously and many risk insights were not being utilized in outage planning. The shutdown PRA provided the necessary framework for assessing relative and absolute risk levels and assessing defense-in-depth. Guidelines were written identifying combinations of equipment outages to avoid. Screening criteria were developed for the selection of work activities to receive review. Tabulation of inherent and work-related initiating events and their relative risk level versus plant mode has aided identification of the risk level the scheduled work involves. Preoutage reviews are conducted and post-outage risk assessment is documented to summarize the positive and negative aspects of the outage with regard to risk. The risk for the outage is compared to the risk level that would result from optimal scheduling of the work to be performed and to baseline or average past performance

  19. MATHEMATICAL RISK ANALYSIS: VIA NICHOLAS RISK MODEL AND BAYESIAN ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anass BAYAGA

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this second part of a two-phased study was to explorethe predictive power of quantitative risk analysis (QRA method andprocess within Higher Education Institution (HEI. The method and process investigated the use impact analysis via Nicholas risk model and Bayesian analysis, with a sample of hundred (100 risk analysts in a historically black South African University in the greater Eastern Cape Province.The first findings supported and confirmed previous literature (KingIII report, 2009: Nicholas and Steyn, 2008: Stoney, 2007: COSA, 2004 that there was a direct relationship between risk factor, its likelihood and impact, certiris paribus. The second finding in relation to either controlling the likelihood or the impact of occurrence of risk (Nicholas risk model was that to have a brighter risk reward, it was important to control the likelihood ofoccurrence of risks as compared with its impact so to have a direct effect on entire University. On the Bayesian analysis, thus third finding, the impact of risk should be predicted along three aspects. These aspects included the human impact (decisions made, the property impact (students and infrastructural based and the business impact. Lastly, the study revealed that although in most business cases, where as business cycles considerably vary dependingon the industry and or the institution, this study revealed that, most impacts in HEI (University was within the period of one academic.The recommendation was that application of quantitative risk analysisshould be related to current legislative framework that affects HEI.

  20. Country risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    David, A.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reports that the oil industry has been an internationally based industry that has been heavily dependent on outside financing sources. Historically, financing came from investment houses that, in most cases, participated in the projects as equity investors. However, investment companies can no longer satisfy the capital requirements of the current high level of exploration and development activities. The current trend is to involve commercial banks on a purely lending basis. Commercial banks, by their nature, are risk averse. In the case of oil and gas exploration and production they are asked to take not only technical risk and price risk but geopolitical risk as well. Methods have been developed by commercial banks to reduce technical and price risks to point which enables them to be comfortable with a loan. However, geopolitical risks are more difficult to assess. The risk associated with many countries are the nationalization of the investment, new tax restrictions, restriction of currency movements, and/or revisions to the production sharing agreements

  1. A Vehicle Management End-to-End Testing and Analysis Platform for Validation of Mission and Fault Management Algorithms to Reduce Risk for NASA's Space Launch System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trevino, Luis; Patterson, Jonathan; Teare, David; Johnson, Stephen

    2015-01-01

    integrates specific M&FM algorithms, specialized nominal and off-nominal test cases, and vendor-supplied physics-based launch vehicle subsystem models. Additionally, the team has developed processes for implementing and validating these algorithms for concept validation and risk reduction for the SLS program. The flexibility of the Vehicle Management End-to-end Testbed (VMET) enables thorough testing of the M&FM algorithms by providing configurable suites of both nominal and off-nominal test cases to validate the developed algorithms utilizing actual subsystem models such as MPS. The intent of VMET is to validate the M&FM algorithms and substantiate them with performance baselines for each of the target vehicle subsystems in an independent platform exterior to the flight software development infrastructure and its related testing entities. In any software development process there is inherent risk in the interpretation and implementation of concepts into software through requirements and test cases into flight software compounded with potential human errors throughout the development lifecycle. Risk reduction is addressed by the M&FM analysis group working with other organizations such as S&MA, Structures and Environments, GNC, Orion, the Crew Office, Flight Operations, and Ground Operations by assessing performance of the M&FM algorithms in terms of their ability to reduce Loss of Mission and Loss of Crew probabilities. In addition, through state machine and diagnostic modeling, analysis efforts investigate a broader suite of failure effects and associated detection and responses that can be tested in VMET to ensure that failures can be detected, and confirm that responses do not create additional risks or cause undesired states through interactive dynamic effects with other algorithms and systems. VMET further contributes to risk reduction by prototyping and exercising the M&FM algorithms early in their implementation and without any inherent hindrances such as meeting FSW

  2. Risk analysis of Odelouca cofferdam

    OpenAIRE

    Pimenta, L.; Caldeira, L.; Maranha das Neves, E.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we present the risk analysis of Odelouca Cofferdam, using an event tree analysis. The initializing events, failure modes and analysed limit states are discussed based on an influence diagram. The constructed event trees and their interpretation are presented. The obtained risk values are represented in an FN plot superimposed to the acceptability and tolerability risk limits proposed for Portuguese dams. Initially, particular emphasis is placed on the main characteristic...

  3. Identification and control of factors influencing flow-accelerated corrosion in HRSG units using computational fluid dynamics modeling, full-scale air flow testing, and risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pietrowski, Ronald L. [The Consolidated Edison Company of New York, Inc., New York, NY (United States)

    2010-11-15

    In 2009, Consolidated Edison's East River heat recovery steam generator units 10 and 20 both experienced economizer tube failures which forced each unit offline. Extensive inspections indicated that the primary failure mechanism was flow-accelerated corrosion (FAC). The inspections revealed evidence of active FAC in all 7 of the economizer modules, with the most advanced stages of degradation being noted in center modules. Analysis determined that various factors were influencing and enabling this corrosion mechanism. Computational fluid dynamics and full-scale air flow testing showed very turbulent feedwater flow prevalent in areas of the modules corresponding with the pattern of FAC damage observed through inspection. It also identified preferential flow paths, with higher flow velocities, in certain tubes directly under the inlet nozzles. A FAC risk analysis identified more general susceptibility to FAC in the areas experiencing damage due to feedwater pH, operating temperatures, local shear fluid forces, and the chemical composition of the original materials of construction. These, in combination, were the primary root causes of the failures. Corrective actions were identified, analyzed, and implemented, resulting in equipment replacements and repairs. (orig.)

  4. Comparing diagnostic tests on benefit-risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pennello, Gene; Pantoja-Galicia, Norberto; Evans, Scott

    2016-01-01

    Comparing diagnostic tests on accuracy alone can be inconclusive. For example, a test may have better sensitivity than another test yet worse specificity. Comparing tests on benefit risk may be more conclusive because clinical consequences of diagnostic error are considered. For benefit-risk evaluation, we propose diagnostic yield, the expected distribution of subjects with true positive, false positive, true negative, and false negative test results in a hypothetical population. We construct a table of diagnostic yield that includes the number of false positive subjects experiencing adverse consequences from unnecessary work-up. We then develop a decision theory for evaluating tests. The theory provides additional interpretation to quantities in the diagnostic yield table. It also indicates that the expected utility of a test relative to a perfect test is a weighted accuracy measure, the average of sensitivity and specificity weighted for prevalence and relative importance of false positive and false negative testing errors, also interpretable as the cost-benefit ratio of treating non-diseased and diseased subjects. We propose plots of diagnostic yield, weighted accuracy, and relative net benefit of tests as functions of prevalence or cost-benefit ratio. Concepts are illustrated with hypothetical screening tests for colorectal cancer with test positive subjects being referred to colonoscopy.

  5. WIPP fire hazards and risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-05-01

    The purpose of this analysis was to conduct a fire hazards risk analysis of the Transuranic (TRU) contact-handled waste receipt, emplacement, and disposal activities at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). The technical bases and safety envelope for these operations are defined in the approved WIPP Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR). Although the safety documentation for the initial phase of the Test Program, the dry bin scale tests, has not yet been approved by the Department of Energy (DOE), reviews of the draft to date, including those by the Advisory Committee on Nuclear Facility Safety (ACNFS), have concluded that the dry bin scale tests present no significant risks in excess of those estimated in the approved WIPP FSAR. It is the opinion of the authors and reviewers of this analysis, based on sound engineering judgment and knowledge of the WIPP operations, that a Fire Hazards and Risk Analysis specific to the dry bin scale test program is not warranted prior to first waste receipt. This conclusion is further supported by the risk analysis presented in this document which demonstrates the level of risk to WIPP operations posed by fire to be extremely low. 15 refs., 41 figs., 48 tabs

  6. Risk based requirements for long term stewardship: A proof-of-principle analysis of an analytic method tested on selected Hanford locations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jarvis, T.T.; Andrews, W.B.; Buck, J.W.

    1998-03-01

    Since 1989, the Department of Energy's (DOE) Environmental Management (EM) Program has managed the environmental legacy of US nuclear weapons production, research and testing at 137 facilities in 31 states and one US territory. The EM program has conducted several studies on the public risks posed by contaminated sites at these facilities. In Risks and the Risk Debate [DOE, 1995a], the Department analyzed the risks at sites before, during, and after remediation work by the EM program. The results indicated that aside from a few urgent risks, most hazards present little inherent risk because physical and active site management controls limit both the releases of site contaminants, and public access to these hazards. Without these controls, these sites would pose greater risks to the public. Past risk reports, however, provided little information about post-cleanup risk, primarily because of uncertainty about future site uses and site characteristics at the end of planned cleanup activities. This is of concern because in many cases current cleanup technologies, and remedies, will last a shorter period of time than the waste itself and the resulting contamination will remain hazardous

  7. Risk Based Requirements for Long Term Stewardship: A Proof-of-Principle Analysis of an Analytic Method Tested on Selected Hanford Locations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    GM Gelston; JW Buck; LR Huesties; MS Peffers; TB Miley; TT Jarvis; WB Andrews

    1998-12-03

    Since 1989, the Department of Energy's (DOE) Environmental Management (EM) Program has managed the environmental legacy of US nuclear weapons production research and testing at 137 facilities in 31 states and one US territory. The EM program has conducted several studies on the public risks posed by contaminated sites at these facilities. In Risks and the Risk Debate DOE, 1995a, the Department analyzed the risks at sites before, during, and after remediation work by the EM program. The results indicated that aside from a few urgent risks, most hazards present little inherent risk because physical and active site management controls limit both the releases of site contaminants, and public access to these hazards. Without these controls, these sites would pose greater risks to the public. Past risk reports, however, provided little irdiormation about post- cleanup risk, primarily because of uncertainty about fiture site uses and site characteristics at the end of planned cleanup activities. This is of concern because in many cases current cleanup technologies, and remedies, will last a shorter period of time than the waste itself and the resulting contamination will remain hazardous.

  8. Campylobacter Risk Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nauta, Maarten

    In several countries quantitative microbiological risk assessments (QMRAs) have been performed for Campylobacter in chicken meat. The models constructed for this purpose provide a good example of the development of QMRA in general and illustrate the diversity of available methods. Despite...... the differences between the models, the most prominent conclusions of the QMRAs are similar. These conclusions for example relate to the large risk of highly contaminated meat products and the insignificance of contamination from Campylobacter positive flocks to negative flocks during slaughter and processing...

  9. Risk analysis: opening the process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, Ph.; Mays, C.

    1998-01-01

    This conference on risk analysis took place in Paris, 11-14 october 1999. Over 200 paper where presented in the seven following sessions: perception; environment and health; persuasive risks; objects and products; personal and collective involvement; assessment and valuation; management. A rational approach to risk analysis has been developed in the three last decades. Techniques for risk assessment have been thoroughly enhanced, risk management approaches have been developed, decision making processes have been clarified, the social dimensions of risk perception and management have been investigated. Nevertheless this construction is being challenged by recent events which reveal how deficits in stakeholder involvement, openness and democratic procedures can undermine risk management actions. Indeed, the global process most components of risk analysis may be radically called into question. Food safety has lately been a prominent issue, but now debates appear, or old debates are revisited in the domains of public health, consumer products safety, waste management, environmental risks, nuclear installations, automobile safety and pollution. To meet the growing pressures for efficiency, openness, accountability, and multi-partner communication in risk analysis, institutional changes are underway in many European countries. However, the need for stakeholders to develop better insight into the process may lead to an evolution of all the components of risks analysis, even in its most (technical' steps. For stakeholders of different professional background, political projects, and responsibilities, risk identification procedures must be rendered understandable, quantitative risk assessment must be intelligible and accommodated in action proposals, ranging from countermeasures to educational programs to insurance mechanisms. Management formats must be open to local and political input and other types of operational feedback. (authors)

  10. Testing for changes in spatial relative risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hazelton, Martin L

    2017-07-30

    The spatial relative risk function is a useful tool for describing geographical variation in disease incidence. We consider the problem of comparing relative risk functions between two time periods, with the idea of detecting alterations in the spatial pattern of disease risk irrespective of whether there has been a change in the overall incidence rate. Using case-control datasets for each period, we use kernel smoothing methods to derive a test statistic based on the difference between the log-relative risk functions, which we term the log-relative risk ratio. For testing a null hypothesis of an unchanging spatial pattern of risk, we show how p-values can be computed using both randomization methods and an asymptotic normal approximation. The methodology is applied to data on campylobacteriosis from 2006 to 2013 in a region of New Zealand. We find clear evidence of a change in the spatial pattern of risk between those years, which can be explained in differences by response to a public health initiative between urban and rural communities. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  11. Materials risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-02-01

    State highway authorities routinely examine the quality of the materials used to build highway construction projects. Some : materials are tested, some are accepted through a manufacturers certification of quality or compliance, some are physicall...

  12. Advances in probabilistic risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hardung von Hardung, H.

    1982-01-01

    Probabilistic risk analysis can now look back upon almost a quarter century of intensive development. The early studies, whose methods and results are still referred to occasionally, however, only permitted rough estimates to be made of the probabilities of recognizable accident scenarios, failing to provide a method which could have served as a reference base in calculating the overall risk associated with nuclear power plants. The first truly solid attempt was the Rasmussen Study and, partly based on it, the German Risk Study. In those studies, probabilistic risk analysis has been given a much more precise basis. However, new methodologies have been developed in the meantime, which allow much more informative risk studies to be carried out. They have been found to be valuable tools for management decisions with respect to backfitting, reinforcement and risk limitation. Today they are mainly applied by specialized private consultants and have already found widespread application especially in the USA. (orig.) [de

  13. Youth's perceptions of HIV infection risk: a sex-specific test of two ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Youth's perceptions of HIV infection risk: a sex-specific test of two risk models. ... The analysis is based on data from the 2003 Demographic and Health survey ... multiple partners, Nigeria, risk perception, sexual behaviour, vulnerability to HIV ...

  14. Introduction of the risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Campon, G.; Martinez, I.

    2013-01-01

    An introduction of risks analysis was given in the exposition which main issues were: food innocuousness, world, regional and national food context,change of paradigms, health definition, risk, codex, standardization, food chain role, trade agreement, codex alimentarius, food transmission diseases cost impact

  15. Hydroproject risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murdock, R.V.; Gulliver, J.S.

    1991-01-01

    Traditionally, economic feasibility studies performed for potential hydropower plant sites have included either no uncertainty or at best an ad hoc value associated with estimated benefits. However, formal methods for analyzing uncertainty do exist and have been outlined in the past. An application of these methods is demonstrated through conversion of a hydropower survey program, HYFEAS, to run on LOTUS 1-2-3, using the add-in software package RISK. In this paper the program principals are outlined and a case study of it's application to a hydropower site is presented

  16. Cost-effectiveness analysis of cervical cancer prevention based on a rapid human papillomavirus screening test in a high-risk region of China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levin, Carol E; Sellors, John; Shi, Ju-Fang; Ma, Li; Qiao, You-lin; Ortendahl, Jesse; O'Shea, Meredith K H; Goldie, Sue J

    2010-09-01

    This study assessed the cost-effectiveness of a new, rapid human papillomavirus (HPV)-DNA screening test for cervical cancer prevention in the high-risk region of Shanxi, China. Using micro-costing methods, we estimated the resources needed to implement preventive strategies using cervical cytology or HPV-DNA testing, including the Hybrid Capture 2 (hc2) test (QIAGEN Corp., Gaithersburg, MD) and the rapid HPV-DNA careHPV test (QIAGEN). Data were used in a previously published model and empirically calibrated to country-specific epidemiological data. Strategies differed by initial test, targeted age, frequency of screening, number of clinic visits required (1, 2 or 3) and service delivery setting (national, county and township levels). Outcomes included lifetime risk of cancer, years of life saved (YLS), lifetime costs and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (cost per YLS). For all screening frequencies, the most efficient strategy used 2-visit rapid HPV-DNA testing at the county level, including screening and diagnostics in the first visit, and treatment in the second visit. Screening at ages 35, 40 and 45 reduced cancer risk by 50% among women compliant with all 3 screening rounds, and was US$ 150 per YLS, compared with this same strategy applied twice per lifetime. This would be considered very cost-effective evaluated against China's per-capita gross domestic product (US$ 1,702). By enhancing the linkage between screening and treatment through a reduced number of visits, rapid HPV-DNA testing 3 times per lifetime is more effective than traditional cytology, and is likely to be cost-effective in high-risk regions of China.

  17. Risk Management Program Application for the Component Test Capability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stephanie L. Austad; Jeffrey D. Bryan

    2009-01-01

    This paper documents the application of the risk management program requirements to Component Test Capability (CTC) Project activities for each CTC alternative. In particular, DOE O 413.3A, 'Program and Project Management for the Acquisition of Capital Assets,' and DOE G 413.3-7, 'Risk Management Guide for Project Management,' will apply in the event that Alternative 4, Single, Standalone Component Test Facility (CTF), is selected and approved. As such, it is advisable to begin planning to meet the associated Department of Energy (DOE) requirements and guidance as early in the acquisition process as practicable. This white paper is intended to assist in this planning and to support associated decision-making activities. Nontechnical risks associated with each alternative will be identified to support the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) CTC alternatives analysis. Technical risks are assumed to be addressed through the Technology Development Risk Management modeling process and are inherent to the alternatives

  18. Personalized treatment of women with early breast cancer: a risk-group specific cost-effectiveness analysis of adjuvant chemotherapy accounting for companion prognostic tests OncotypeDX and Adjuvant!Online.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jahn, Beate; Rochau, Ursula; Kurzthaler, Christina; Hubalek, Michael; Miksad, Rebecca; Sroczynski, Gaby; Paulden, Mike; Bundo, Marvin; Stenehjem, David; Brixner, Diana; Krahn, Murray; Siebert, Uwe

    2017-10-16

    ODX risk. In other words, low ODX risk suggests chemotherapy should not be considered but low AO risk may benefit from chemotherapy if ODX risk is high. Our analysis suggests that risk-group specific cost-effectiveness analysis, which includes companion prognostic tests are essential in PM.

  19. STOCHASTIC METHODS IN RISK ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimíra OSADSKÁ

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we review basic stochastic methods which can be used to extend state-of-the-art deterministic analytical methods for risk analysis. We can conclude that the standard deterministic analytical methods highly depend on the practical experience and knowledge of the evaluator and therefore, the stochastic methods should be introduced. The new risk analysis methods should consider the uncertainties in input values. We present how large is the impact on the results of the analysis solving practical example of FMECA with uncertainties modelled using Monte Carlo sampling.

  20. Evaluating the effect of HIV prevention strategies on uptake of HIV counselling and testing among male most-at-risk-populations in Nigeria; a cross-sectional analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adebajo, Sylvia; Eluwa, George; Njab, Jean; Oginni, Ayo; Ukwuije, Francis; Ahonsi, Babatunde; Lorenc, Theo

    2015-12-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of three strategies in increasing uptake of HIV counselling and testing (HCT) among male most-at-risk-population (M-MARPs) using programmatic data. HIV prevention strategies were evaluated in a cross-sectional analysis. Three HCT strategies were implemented between July 2009 and July 2012 among men who have sex with men (MSM) and people who inject drugs (PWIDs) in four states in Nigeria. The first strategy (S1), involved key opinion leaders (KOLs) who referred M-MARPs to health facilities for HCT. The second strategy (S2) involved KOLs referring M-MARPs to nearby mobile HCT teams while the third (S3) involved mobile M-MARPs peers conducting the HCT. χ(2) statistics were used to test for differences in the distribution of categorical variables across groups while logistic regression was used to measure the effect of the different strategies while controlling for confounding factors. A total of 1988, 14 726 and 14 895 M-MARPs were offered HCT through S1, S2 and S3 strategies, respectively. Overall, S3 (13%) identified the highest proportion of HIV-positive M-MARPs compared with S1 (9%) and S2 (3%), p≤0.001. Also S3 (13%) identified the highest proportion of new HIV diagnosis compared with S1 (8%) and S2 (3%), respectively, p≤0.001. When controlled for age, marital status and occupation, MSM reached via S3 were 9 times (AOR: 9.21; 95% CI 5.57 to 15.23) more likely to uptake HCT when compared with S1 while PWIDs were 21 times (AOR: 20.90; 95% CI 17.33 to 25.21) more likely to uptake to HCT compared with those reached via S1. Peer-led HCT delivered by S3 had the highest impact on the total number of M-MARPs reached and in identifying HIV-positive M-MARPs and new testers. Training M-MARPs peers to provide HCT is a high impact approach in delivering HCT to M-MARPs. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  1. Introduction of peanuts in younger siblings of children with peanut allergy: a prospective, double-blinded assessment of risk, of diagnostic tests, and an analysis of patient preferences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bégin, P; Graham, F; Killer, K; Paradis, J; Paradis, L; Des Roches, A

    2016-12-01

    The prevalence of peanut allergy in younger siblings of children with peanut allergy has been reported between 7% and 8.5%, but the anaphylactic risk at the time of introduction is currently unknown, which limits our ability to best counsel parents on this issue. To determine the risk of anaphylaxis and working parameters of allergy testing in this context. One hundred and fifty-four peanut-naïve younger siblings of peanut-allergic children underwent double-blinded skin testing, followed by parent-led peanut introduction. Questionnaires were dispensed to parents to investigate preferences with regard to peanut introduction in this subgroup. Eight participants (5.2%) presented unequivocal IgE-mediated reactions to peanut upon introduction, including five anaphylaxes. These participants were significantly older compared to the rest of the cohort (median 4.0 vs 1.9 years, P = 0.04). The negative predictive value of skin prick test with peanut extract and peanut butter and of specific IgE was 99%, 100%, and 100%, respectively. Six peanut-tolerant participants had positive peanut allergy tests. The option of introducing at home without prior skin testing was associated with high levels of anxiety (median 8.4 on 10-point Likert scale) when compared to supervised introduction (median 3.8, P siblings of children with peanut allergy, and parents are reluctant to introduce at home without testing. Allergy testing prior to introduction is negative in over 90% of cases and carries a high negative predictive value. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  2. ProRisk : risk analysis instrument : developed for William properties

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Doorn, W.H.W.; Egeberg, Ingrid; Hendrickx, Kristoff; Kahramaner, Y.; Masseur, B.; Waijers, Koen; Weglicka, K.A.

    2005-01-01

    This report presents a Risk Analysis Instrument developed for William Properties. Based on the analysis, it appears that the practice of Risk Analysis exists within the organization, yet rather implicit. The Risk Analysis Instrument comes with a package of four components: an activity diagram, a

  3. Risk analysis of alternative energy sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kazmer, D.R.

    1982-01-01

    The author explores two points raised by Miller Spangler in a January 1981 issue: public perception of risks involving nuclear power plants relative to those of conventional plants and criteria for evaluating the way risk analyses are made. On the first point, he concludes that translating public attitudes into the experts' language of probability and risk could provide better information and understanding of both the attitudes and the risks. Viewing risk analysis methodologies as filters which help to test historical change, he suggests that the lack of information favors a lay jury approach for energy decisions. Spangler responds that Congress is an example of lay decision making, but that a lay jury, given public disinterest and polarization, would probably not improve social justice on the nuclear issue. 5 references, 4 figures

  4. Common approach of risks analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noviello, L.; Naviglio, A.

    1996-01-01

    Although, following the resolutions of the High German Court, the protection level of the human beings is an objective which can change in time, it is obvious that it is an important point when there is a risk for the population. This is true more particularly for the industrial plants whose possible accidents could affect the population. The accidents risk analysis indicates that there is no conceptual difference between the risks of a nuclear power plant and those of the other industrial plants as chemical plants, the gas distribution system and the hydraulic dams. A legislation analysis induced by the Seveso Directive for the industrial risks give some important indications which should always be followed. This work analyses more particularly the legislative situation in different European countries and identifies some of the most important characteristics. Indeed, for most of the countries, the situation is different and it is a later difficulties source for nuclear power plants. In order to strengthen this reasoning, this paper presents some preliminary results of an analysis of a nuclear power plant following the approach of other industrial plants. In conclusion, it will be necessary to analyse again the risks assessment approach for nuclear power plants because the real protection level of human beings in a country is determined by the less regulated of the dangerous industrial plants existing at the surroundings. (O.M.)

  5. Semen analysis and sperm function tests: How much to test?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S S Vasan

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Semen analysis as an integral part of infertility investigations is taken as a surrogate measure for male fecundity in clinical andrology, male fertility, and pregnancy risk assessments. Clearly, laboratory seminology is still very much in its infancy. In as much as the creation of a conventional semen profile will always represent the foundations of male fertility evaluation, the 5th edition of the World Health Organization (WHO manual is a definitive statement on how such assessments should be carried out and how the quality should be controlled. A major advance in this new edition of the WHO manual, resolving the most salient critique of previous editions, is the development of the first well-defined reference ranges for semen analysis based on the analysis of over 1900 recent fathers. The methodology used in the assessment of the usual variables in semen analysis is described, as are many of the less common, but very valuable, sperm function tests. Sperm function testing is used to determine if the sperm have the biologic capacity to perform the tasks necessary to reach and fertilize ova and ultimately result in live births. A variety of tests are available to evaluate different aspects of these functions. To accurately use these functional assays, the clinician must understand what the tests measure, what the indications are for the assays, and how to interpret the results to direct further testing or patient management.

  6. Risk Characterization uncertainties associated description, sensitivity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carrillo, M.; Tovar, M.; Alvarez, J.; Arraez, M.; Hordziejewicz, I.; Loreto, I.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation is about risks to the estimated levels of exposure, uncertainty and variability in the analysis, sensitivity analysis, risks from exposure to multiple substances, formulation of guidelines for carcinogenic and genotoxic compounds and risk subpopulations

  7. Empirically Testing Thematic Analysis (ETTA)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gildberg, Frederik Alkier; Bradley, Stephen K.; Tingleff, Elllen B.

    2015-01-01

    Text analysis is not a question of a right or wrong way to go about it, but a question of different traditions. These tend to not only give answers to how to conduct an analysis, but also to provide the answer as to why it is conducted in the way that it is. The problem however may be that the li...... for themselves. The advantage of utilizing the presented analytic approach is argued to be the integral empirical testing, which should assure systematic development, interpretation and analysis of the source textual material....... between tradition and tool is unclear. The main objective of this article is therefore to present Empirical Testing Thematic Analysis, a step by step approach to thematic text analysis; discussing strengths and weaknesses, so that others might assess its potential as an approach that they might utilize/develop...

  8. Environmental modeling and health risk analysis (ACTS/RISK)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Aral, M. M

    2010-01-01

    ... presents a review of the topics of exposure and health risk analysis. The Analytical Contaminant Transport Analysis System (ACTS) and Health RISK Analysis (RISK) software tools are an integral part of the book and provide computational platforms for all the models discussed herein. The most recent versions of these two softwa...

  9. The Role of Alternative Testing Strategies in Environmental Risk Assessment of Engineered Nanomaterials

    OpenAIRE

    Hjorth, Rune; Holden, Patricia; Hansen, Steffen Foss; Colman, Ben; Grieger, Khara; Hendren, Christine

    2017-01-01

    Within toxicology there is a pressure to find new test systems and organisms to replace, reduce and refine animal testing. In nanoecotoxicology the need for alternative testing strategies (ATS) is further emphasized as the validity of tests and risk assessment practices developed for dissolved chemicals are challenged. Nonetheless, standardized whole organism animal testing is still considered the gold standard for environmental risk assessment. Advancing risk analysis of engineered nanomater...

  10. Software quality testing process analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Mera Paz, Julián

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: This article is the result of reading, review, analysis of books, magazines and articles well known for their scientific and research quality, which have addressed the software quality testing process. The author, based on his work experience in software development companies, teaching and other areas, has compiled and selected information to argue and substantiate the importance of the software quality testing process. Methodology: the existing literature on the software qualit...

  11. Credit Risk Evaluation : Modeling - Analysis - Management

    OpenAIRE

    Wehrspohn, Uwe

    2002-01-01

    An analysis and further development of the building blocks of modern credit risk management: -Definitions of default -Estimation of default probabilities -Exposures -Recovery Rates -Pricing -Concepts of portfolio dependence -Time horizons for risk calculations -Quantification of portfolio risk -Estimation of risk measures -Portfolio analysis and portfolio improvement -Evaluation and comparison of credit risk models -Analytic portfolio loss distributions The thesis contributes to the evaluatio...

  12. Relationship between a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention expanded HIV testing initiative and past-year testing by race/ethnicity: a multilevel analysis of the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaines, Tommi L; Caldwell, Julia T; Ford, Chandra L; Mulatu, Mesfin S; Godette, Dionne C

    2016-01-01

    The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC) expanded testing initiative (ETI) aims to bolster HIV testing among populations disproportionately affected by the HIV epidemic by providing additional funding to health departments serving these communities. ETI prioritizes testing in clinical settings; therefore, we examined the relationship between state-level ETI participation and past-year HIV testing among a racially/ethnically diverse sample of adult respondents to the 2012 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System who accessed health services within the 12 months prior to being interviewed. Controlling for individual- and state-level characteristics in a multilevel logistic regression model, ETI participation was independently and positively associated with past-year testing, but this association varied by race/ethnicity. Hispanics had higher odds (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]: 1.49; 95% CI: 1.11-2.02) and American Indian/Alaska Natives had lower odds (AOR: 0.66; 95% CI: 0.43-0.99) of testing if they resided in states with (vs. without) ETI participation. State-level ETI participation did not significantly alter past-year testing among other racial/ethnic groups. Prioritizing public health resources in states most affected by HIV can improve testing patterns, but other mechanisms likely influence which racial/ethnic groups undergo testing.

  13. VAR, stress-testing and supplementary methodologies: uses and constraints in energy risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Senior, Brian

    1999-01-01

    This chapter lists some of the special risks associated with a range of energy markets, and questions what is risk. Market risk, the use of value-at-risk (VAR) for measuring and managing market risk, use of VAR in the banking sector, back-testing of VAR, the corporate sector, making investment decisions, and the need for additional methods of risk analysis are discussed. Scenario analysis and stress testing, liquidity, and combining VAR and stress-testing are described. Credit risk and the quantitative analysis of credit risk are addressed, and operational risk, and organisational challenges are considered. Panels present examples of a simple VAR calculation and give descriptions of VAR in corporate decisions, the measurement of liquidity, and the use of the Greeks in decisions on day to day trading and risk management

  14. Risk analysis of external radiation therapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arvidsson, Marcus

    2011-09-01

    External radiation therapy is carried out via a complex treatment process in which many different groups of staff work together. Much of the work is dependent on and in collaboration with advanced technical equipment. The purpose of the research task has been to identify a process for external radiation therapy and to identify, test and analyze a suitable method for performing risk analysis of external radiation therapy

  15. Risk Analysis in Road Tunnels – Most Important Risk Indicators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berchtold, Florian; Knaust, Christian; Thöns, Sebastian

    2016-01-01

    Methodologies on fire risk analysis in road tunnels consider numerous factors affecting risks (risk indicators) and express the results by risk measures. But only few comprehensive studies on effects of risk indicators on risk measures are available. For this reason, this study quantifies...... the effects and highlights the most important risk indicators with the aim to support further developments in risk analysis. Therefore, a system model of a road tunnel was developed to determine the risk measures. The system model can be divided into three parts: the fire part connected to the fire model Fire...... Dynamics Simulator (FDS); the evacuation part connected to the evacuation model FDS+Evac; and the frequency part connected to a model to calculate the frequency of fires. This study shows that the parts of the system model (and their most important risk indicators) affect the risk measures in the following...

  16. What is a risk. [Quantitative risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schoen, G [Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt, Braunschweig (Germany, F.R.)

    1979-02-01

    The following article is a revised version of a lecture given by the author during the VDE meeting 'Technical Expert Activities' in Brunswick. First of all, the concept of 'risk' is discussed which leads to a probability scale which then permits a definition of the 'justifiable risk' as the boundary between 'hazard' and 'safety'. The boundary is quantified indirectly from laws, regulations, instructions, etc. to the 'Technological rules' for special fields of application by minimum requirement data. These viewpoints described in detail are not only of substantial significance for the creation of safety regulations but also for their application and consequently for jurisdiction.

  17. Risk analysis in radiosurgery treatments using risk matrices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delgado, J. M.; Sanchez Cayela, C.; Ramirez, M. L.; Perez, A.

    2011-01-01

    The aim of this study is the risk analysis process stereotactic single-dose radiotherapy and evaluation of those initiating events that lead to increased risk and a possible solution in the design of barriers.

  18. Risk Analysis Group annual progress report 1984

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1985-06-01

    The activities of the Risk Analysis Group at Risoe during 1984 are presented. These include descriptions in some detail of work on general development topics and risk analysis performed as contractor. (author)

  19. A time and imaging cost analysis of low-risk ED observation patients: a conservative 64-section computed tomography coronary angiography "triple rule-out" compared to nuclear stress test strategy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takakuwa, Kevin M; Halpern, Ethan J; Shofer, Frances S

    2011-02-01

    The study aimed to examine time and imaging costs of 2 different imaging strategies for low-risk emergency department (ED) observation patients with acute chest pain or symptoms suggestive of acute coronary syndrome. We compared a "triple rule-out" (TRO) 64-section multidetector computed tomography protocol with nuclear stress testing. This was a prospective observational cohort study of consecutive ED patients who were enrolled in our chest pain observation protocol during a 16-month period. Our standard observation protocol included a minimum of 2 sets of cardiac enzymes at least 6 hours apart followed by a nuclear stress test. Once a week, observation patients were offered a TRO (to evaluate for coronary artery disease, thoracic dissection, and pulmonary embolus) multidetector computed tomography with the option of further stress testing for those patients found to have evidence of coronary artery disease. We analyzed 832 consecutive observation patients including 214 patients who underwent the TRO protocol. Mean total length of stay was 16.1 hours for TRO patients, 16.3 hours for TRO plus other imaging test, 22.6 hours for nuclear stress testing, 23.3 hours for nuclear stress testing plus other imaging tests, and 23.7 hours for nuclear stress testing plus TRO (P < .0001 for TRO and TRO + other test compared to stress test ± other test). Mean imaging times were 3.6, 4.4, 5.9, 7.5, and 6.6 hours, respectively (P < .05 for TRO and TRO + other test compared to stress test ± other test). Mean imaging costs were $1307 for TRO patients vs $945 for nuclear stress testing. Triple rule-out reduced total length of stay and imaging time but incurred higher imaging costs. A per-hospital analysis would be needed to determine if patient time savings justify the higher imaging costs. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Bankruptcy risk model and empirical tests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Podobnik, Boris; Horvatic, Davor; Petersen, Alexander M.; Urošević, Branko; Stanley, H. Eugene

    2010-01-01

    We analyze the size dependence and temporal stability of firm bankruptcy risk in the US economy by applying Zipf scaling techniques. We focus on a single risk factor—the debt-to-asset ratio R—in order to study the stability of the Zipf distribution of R over time. We find that the Zipf exponent increases during market crashes, implying that firms go bankrupt with larger values of R. Based on the Zipf analysis, we employ Bayes’s theorem and relate the conditional probability that a bankrupt firm has a ratio R with the conditional probability of bankruptcy for a firm with a given R value. For 2,737 bankrupt firms, we demonstrate size dependence in assets change during the bankruptcy proceedings. Prepetition firm assets and petition firm assets follow Zipf distributions but with different exponents, meaning that firms with smaller assets adjust their assets more than firms with larger assets during the bankruptcy process. We compare bankrupt firms with nonbankrupt firms by analyzing the assets and liabilities of two large subsets of the US economy: 2,545 Nasdaq members and 1,680 New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) members. We find that both assets and liabilities follow a Pareto distribution. The finding is not a trivial consequence of the Zipf scaling relationship of firm size quantified by employees—although the market capitalization of Nasdaq stocks follows a Pareto distribution, the same distribution does not describe NYSE stocks. We propose a coupled Simon model that simultaneously evolves both assets and debt with the possibility of bankruptcy, and we also consider the possibility of firm mergers. PMID:20937903

  1. The Role of Alternative Testing Strategies in Environmental Risk Assessment of Engineered Nanomaterials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hjorth, Rune; Holden, Patricia; Hansen, Steffen Foss

    2017-01-01

    ) workshop in Washington, D.C. and serves as the point of depature for this paper. Here we present the main outcomes by describing and defining the use of ATS for ENMs as well as discussing its future role in environmental risk science. We conclude that diversity in testing should be encouraged to avoid...... chemicals are challenged. Nonetheless, standardized whole organism animal testing is still considered the gold standard for environmental risk assessment. Advancing risk analysis of engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) through ATS was discussed in September 2014 at an international Society for Risk Analysis (SRA...... be utilized to skip uncertain environmental extrapolations and give rise to more accurate risk analysis....

  2. RISK ANALYSIS IN MILK PROCESSING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. PIRVUTOIU

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper aimed to evaluate Risk bankruptcy using “Score Method” based on Canon and Holder’s Model. The data were collected from the Balance Sheet and Profit and Loss Account for the period 2005-2007, recorded by a Meat processing Plant (Rador Commercial Company .The study has put in evidence the financial situation of the company,the level of the main financial ratios fundamenting the calculation of Z score function value in the three years The low values of Z score function recorded every year reflects that the company is still facing backruptcy. However , the worst situation was recorded in the years 2005 and 2006, when baknruptcy risk was ranging between 70 – 80 % . In the year 2007, the risk bankruptcy was lower, ranging between 50-70 % , as Z function recorded a value lower than 4 .For Meat processing companies such an analysis is compulsory at present as long as business environment is very risky in our country.

  3. Analysis of risk factors for mild cognitive impairment based on word list memory test results and questionnaire responses in healthy Japanese individuals registered in an online database.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogawa, Masayo; Sone, Daichi; Maruo, Kazushi; Shimada, Hiroyuki; Suzuki, Keisuke; Watanabe, Hiroshi; Matsuda, Hiroshi; Mizusawa, Hidehiro

    2018-01-01

    Although the development of effective therapeutic drugs and radical treatment options for dementia and Alzheimer's disease (AD) remains urgent, progress in recent clinical trials of AD drugs has been less than adequate. In order to advance the progress of clinical trials, it is necessary to establish more efficient methods of recruitment. In Japan, there are registration systems stratified by mild cognitive impairment and preclinical and clinical stages of early and advanced stage dementia, but there is no registration system for healthy individuals yet. Therefore, in the present study, we developed a large-scale, internet-based health registry to investigate factors associated with cognitive function among registered participants. A total of 1038 participants completed the initial questionnaire and word list memory test. Among these participants, 353 individuals completed a second questionnaire and memory test. Stepwise multiple regression analysis was performed using IBM SPSS version 23.0 for Windows at a statistical significance level of p<0.05. We found that mood, motivation, and a decreased ability to perform activities of daily living were significantly associated with cognitive function. The results of the present study suggest that maintaining social involvement is important to prevent decreases in physical activity, daily function, mood, and motivation.

  4. Risk analysis; Analisis de riesgos

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baron, J H; Nunez McLeod, J; Rivera, S S [Universidad Nacional de Cuyo, Mendoza (Argentina). Instituto de Capacitacion Especial y Desarrollo de Ingenieria Asistida por Computadora (CEDIAC)

    1997-07-01

    This book contains a selection of research works performed in the CEDIAC Institute (Cuyo National University) in the area of Risk Analysis, with specific orientations to the subjects of uncertainty and sensitivity studies, software reliability, severe accident modeling, etc. This volume presents important material for all those researches who want to have an insight in the risk analysis field, as a tool to solution several problems frequently found in the engineering and applied sciences field, as well as for the academic teachers who want to keep up to date, including the new developments and improvements continuously arising in this field. [Spanish] Este libro contiene una seleccion de trabajos de investigacion realizados dentro del Instituto de Capacitacion Especial y Desarrollo de la Ingenieria Asistida por Computadora en el area del analisis de riesgos, con una orientacion hacia el estudio de incertidumbres y sensibilidad, confiabilidad de software, modelacion de accidentes severos, etc. Este volumen recoge un material de indudable importancia e interes para todos aquellos investigadores y profesionales que desean incursionar en este campo del analisis de riesgos como herramienta para la solucion de problemas frecuentemente encontrados en la ingenieria y las ciencias aplicadas, asi como para los academicos que desean mantenerse al dia, conociendo los nuevos desarrollos y tecnicas que constantemente aparecen en su area.

  5. A background to risk analysis. Vol. 3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, J.R.

    1979-01-01

    This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles, and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justifi- cation or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appenix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 3 contains chapters on quantification of risk, failure and accident probability, risk analysis and design, and examles of risk analysis for process plant. (BP)

  6. A background risk analysis. Vol. 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, J.R.

    1979-01-01

    This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles, and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques, described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justification or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appendix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 1 contains a short history of risk analysis, and chapters on risk, failures, errors and accidents, and general procedures for risk analysis. (BP)

  7. Environmental risk analysis for nanomaterials: Review and evaluation of frameworks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grieger, Khara Deanne; Linkov, Igor; Hansen, Steffen Foss

    2012-01-01

    to occupational settings with minor environmental considerations, and most have not been thoroughly tested on a wide range of NM. Care should also be taken when selecting the most appropriate risk analysis strategy for a given risk context. Given this, we recommend a multi-faceted approach to assess...... the environmental risks of NM as well as increased applications and testing of the proposed frameworks for different NM....

  8. LESSONS FROM A RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS OF A 5-YR PERIOD OF QUARANTINE AT SAN DIEGO ZOO: A RISK-BASED APPROACH TO QUARANTINE ISOLATION AND TESTING MAY BENEFIT ANIMAL WELFARE.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallace, Chelsea; Marinkovich, Matt; Morris, Pat J; Rideout, Bruce; Pye, Geoffrey W

    2016-03-01

    Quarantine is designed primarily to prevent the introduction of transmissible diseases to zoological collections. Improvements in preventive medicine, disease eradication, and comprehensive pathology programs call into question current industry quarantine standards. Disease risk analysis was used at the San Diego Zoo (SDZ) and the SDZ Safari Park to eliminate quarantine isolation and transmissible disease testing for animals transferred between the two institutions. To determine if a risk-based approach might be valid between other institutions and SDZ, we reviewed quarantine data for animals arriving at SDZ from 81 Association of Zoos and Aquariums (AZA)-accredited and 124 other sources (e.g., non-AZA-accredited institutions, private breeders, private dealers, governmental bodies) over a 5-yr period (2009-2013). No mammal or herptile failed quarantine due to transmissible diseases of concern. Approximately 2.5% of incoming birds failed quarantine due to transmissible disease; however, all 14 failed individuals were obtained from three nonaccredited sources (private breeders, confiscation). The results of our study suggest that a risk-based approach could be used to minimize or eliminate quarantine for the transfer of animals from institutions with comprehensive disease surveillance programs and/or preshipment testing practices. Quarantine isolation with testing remains an essential defense against introducing transmissible diseases of concern when there is a lack of health knowledge about the animals being received.

  9. Ethnicity and HIV risk behaviour, testing and knowledge in Guatemala.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Tory M; Hembling, John; Bertrand, Jane T

    2015-01-01

    To describe levels of risky sexual behaviour, HIV testing and HIV knowledge among men and women in Guatemala by ethnic group and to identify adjusted associations between ethnicity and these outcomes. Data on 16,205 women aged 15-49 and 6822 men aged 15-59 from the 2008-2009 Encuesta Nacional de Salud Materno Infantil were used to describe ethnic group differences in sexual behaviour, HIV knowledge and testing. We then controlled for age, education, wealth and other socio-demographic factors in a multivariate logistic regression model to examine the effects of ethnicity on outcomes related to age at sexual debut, number of lifetime sex partners, comprehensive HIV knowledge, HIV testing and lifetime sex worker patronage (men only). The data show low levels of risky sexual behaviour and low levels of HIV knowledge among indigenous women and men, compared to other respondents. Controlling for demographic factors, indigenous women were more likely than other women never to have been tested for HIV and to lack comprehensive HIV knowledge. They were less likely to report early sexual debut and three or more lifetime sexual partners. Indigenous men were more likely than other men to lack comprehensive HIV knowledge and demonstrated lower odds of early sexual debut, 10 or more lifetime sexual partners and sex worker patronage. The Mayan indigenous population in Guatemala, while broadly socially vulnerable, does not appear to be at elevated risk for HIV based on this analysis of selected risk factors. Nonetheless, low rates of HIV knowledge and testing may be cause for concern. Programmes working in indigenous communities should focus on HIV education and reducing barriers to testing. Further research into the factors that underlie ethnic self-identity and perceived ethnicity could help clarify the relative significance of these measures for HIV risk and other health outcomes.

  10. Advanced Test Reactor probabilistic risk assessment methodology and results summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eide, S.A.; Atkinson, S.A.; Thatcher, T.A.

    1992-01-01

    The Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) Level 1 report documents a comprehensive and state-of-the-art study to establish and reduce the risk associated with operation of the ATR, expressed as a mean frequency of fuel damage. The ATR Level 1 PRA effort is unique and outstanding because of its consistent and state-of-the-art treatment of all facets of the risk study, its comprehensive and cost-effective risk reduction effort while the risk baseline was being established, and its thorough and comprehensive documentation. The PRA includes many improvements to the state-of-the-art, including the following: establishment of a comprehensive generic data base for component failures, treatment of initiating event frequencies given significant plant improvements in recent years, performance of efficient identification and screening of fire and flood events using code-assisted vital area analysis, identification and treatment of significant seismic-fire-flood-wind interactions, and modeling of large loss-of-coolant accidents (LOCAs) and experiment loop ruptures leading to direct damage of the ATR core. 18 refs

  11. Quantitative Risk Analysis: Method And Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anass BAYAGA

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Recent and past studies (King III report, 2009: 73-75; Stoney 2007;Committee of Sponsoring Organisation-COSO, 2004, Bartell, 2003; Liebenberg and Hoyt, 2003; Reason, 2000; Markowitz 1957 lament that although, the introduction of quantifying risk to enhance degree of objectivity in finance for instance was quite parallel to its development in the manufacturing industry, it is not the same in Higher Education Institution (HEI. In this regard, the objective of the paper was to demonstrate the methods and process of Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA through likelihood of occurrence of risk (phase I. This paper serves as first of a two-phased study, which sampled hundred (100 risk analysts in a University in the greater Eastern Cape Province of South Africa.The analysis of likelihood of occurrence of risk by logistic regression and percentages were conducted to investigate whether there were a significant difference or not between groups (analyst in respect of QRA.The Hosmer and Lemeshow test was non-significant with a chi-square(X2 =8.181; p = 0.300, which indicated that there was a good model fit, since the data did not significantly deviate from the model. The study concluded that to derive an overall likelihood rating that indicated the probability that a potential risk may be exercised within the construct of an associated threat environment, the following governing factors must be considered: (1 threat source motivation and capability (2 nature of the vulnerability (3 existence and effectiveness of current controls (methods and process.

  12. RAMS (Risk Analysis - Modular System) methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stenner, R.D.; Strenge, D.L.; Buck, J.W. [and others

    1996-10-01

    The Risk Analysis - Modular System (RAMS) was developed to serve as a broad scope risk analysis tool for the Risk Assessment of the Hanford Mission (RAHM) studies. The RAHM element provides risk analysis support for Hanford Strategic Analysis and Mission Planning activities. The RAHM also provides risk analysis support for the Hanford 10-Year Plan development activities. The RAMS tool draws from a collection of specifically designed databases and modular risk analysis methodologies and models. RAMS is a flexible modular system that can be focused on targeted risk analysis needs. It is specifically designed to address risks associated with overall strategy, technical alternative, and `what if` questions regarding the Hanford cleanup mission. RAMS is set up to address both near-term and long-term risk issues. Consistency is very important for any comparative risk analysis, and RAMS is designed to efficiently and consistently compare risks and produce risk reduction estimates. There is a wide range of output information that can be generated by RAMS. These outputs can be detailed by individual contaminants, waste forms, transport pathways, exposure scenarios, individuals, populations, etc. However, they can also be in rolled-up form to support high-level strategy decisions.

  13. Risk Management for Point-of-Care Testing

    OpenAIRE

    James, H. Nichols

    2014-01-01

    Point-of-care testing (POCT) is growing in popularity, and with this growth comes an increased chance of errors. Risk management is a way to reduce errors. Originally developed for the manufacturing industry, risk management principles have application for improving the quality of test results in the clinical laboratory. The Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute (CLSI), EP23-A Laboratory Quality Control based on Risk Management guideline, introduces risk management to the clinical labor...

  14. Streamlining project delivery through risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-08-01

    Project delivery is a significant area of concern and is subject to several risks throughout Plan Development : Process (PDP). These risks are attributed to major areas of project development, such as environmental : analysis, right-of-way (ROW) acqu...

  15. A new bootstrap test for multiple assets joint risk testing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ardia, David; Gatarek, Lukasz; Hoogerheide, Lennart F.

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, a novel simulation-based methodology is proposed to test the validity of a set of marginal time series models, where the dependence structure between the time series is taken directly from the observed data. The procedure is useful when one wants to summarize the test results for

  16. High risk HPV testing following treatment for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molloy, M; Comer, R; Rogers, P; Dowling, M; Meskell, P; Asbury, K; O'Leary, M

    2016-11-01

    To determine the results of combined cytology and high-risk human papilloma virus (HR HPV) tests at 6 and 18 months postcolposcopy treatment at one Irish colposcopy centre. All women who attended the centre's colposcopy smear clinic for a co-test 6 months (initial test) posttreatment were included in the audit (n = 251). The results revealed negative HR HPV for 79 % (n = 198) of women tested 6 months after treatment and positive results for 21 % (n = 53). HR HPV testing was more sensitive than cytology and led to early detection of residual disease. No women with negative HR HPV had high-grade cytology. HR HPV is more sensitive than cytology for detection of persistent CIN. However, 19 women with positive HR HPV had normal colposcopy with no persistent CIN detected. A national cost-benefit analysis is recommended to determine the value of the second co-test.

  17. Radon risk perception and testing: Sociodemographic correlates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Halpern, M.T.; Warner, K.E.

    1994-01-01

    While numerous health education campaigns have been carried out to alert the public to radon's potential dangers and to encourage testing and mitigation, there has been little follow-up to determine which segments of the public are now most aware of the possible hazards of radon. Using information from the 1990 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS), the authors have examined beliefs regarding radon and radon-testing activities among different sociodemographic groups. They used logistic regression to determine the relationship between these beliefs and actions and age, gender, education, income, minority status, and smoking status. The results suggest relatively superficial knowledge regarding radon, and very little testing, within the survey population. In particular, significantly less knowledge was observed among female and minority respondents, while less testing behavior was seen among older respondents. Lower educational levels and lower family income were associated with both decreased knowledge and testing. Recommendations for future education campaigns are discussed

  18. Risk analysis and safety rationale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bengtsson, G.

    1989-01-01

    Decision making with respect to safety is becoming more and more complex. The risk involved must be taken into account together with numerous other factors such as the benefits, the uncertainties and the public perception. Can the decision maker be aided by some kind of system, general rules of thumb, or broader perspective on similar decisions? This question has been addressed in a joint Nordic project relating to nuclear power. Modern techniques for risk assessment and management have been studied, and parallels drawn to such areas as offshore safety and management of toxic chemicals in the environment. The report summarises the finding of 5 major technical reports which have been published in the NORD-series. The topics includes developments, uncertainties and limitations in probabilistic safety assessments, negligible risks, risk-cost trade-offs, optimisation of nuclear safety and radiation protection, and the role of risks in the decision making process. (author) 84 refs

  19. A background to risk analysis. Vol. 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, J.R.

    1979-01-01

    This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justification or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appendix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 2 treats generic methods of qualitative failure analysis. (BP)

  20. Case studies: Risk-based analysis of technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wagner, D.P.; Minton, L.A.; Gaertner, J.P.

    1987-01-01

    The SOCRATES computer program uses the results of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) or a system level risk analysis to calculate changes in risk due to changes in the surveillance test interval and/or the allowed outage time stated in the technical specification. The computer program can accommodate various testing strategies (such as staggered or simultaneous testing) to allow modeling of component testing as it is carried out at a plant. The methods and computer program are an integral part of a larger decision process aimed at determining benefits from technical specification changes. These benefits can include cost savings to the utilities by reducing forced shutdowns with no adverse impacts on risk. Three summaries of case study applications are included to demonstrate the types of results that can be achieved through risk-based evaluation of technical specifications. (orig.)

  1. Risk Analysis of Telecom Enterprise Financing

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YU Hua; SHU Hua-ying

    2005-01-01

    The main research objects in this paper are the causes searching and risk estimating method for telecom enterprises' financial risks. The multi-mode financing for telecom enterprises makes it flexible to induce the capital and obtain the profit by corresponding projects. But there are also potential risks going with these financing modes. After making analysis of categories and causes of telecom enterprises' financing risk, a method by Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is put forward to estimating the financing risk. And the author makes her suggestion and opinion by example analysis, in order to provide some ideas and basis for telecom enterprise's financing decision-making.

  2. PRA and Risk Informed Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernsen, Sidney A.; Simonen, Fredric A.; Balkey, Kenneth R.

    2006-01-01

    The Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code (BPVC) of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) has introduced a risk based approach into Section XI that covers Rules for Inservice Inspection of Nuclear Power Plant Components. The risk based approach requires application of the probabilistic risk assessments (PRA). Because no industry consensus standard existed for PRAs, ASME has developed a standard to evaluate the quality level of an available PRA needed to support a given risk based application. The paper describes the PRA standard, Section XI application of PRAs, and plans for broader applications of PRAs to other ASME nuclear codes and standards. The paper addresses several specific topics of interest to Section XI. Important consideration are special methods (surrogate components) used to overcome the lack of PRA treatments of passive components in PRAs. The approach allows calculations of conditional core damage probabilities both for component failures that cause initiating events and failures in standby systems that decrease the availability of these systems. The paper relates the explicit risk based methods of the new Section XI code cases to the implicit consideration of risk used in the development of Section XI. Other topics include the needed interactions of ISI engineers, plant operating staff, PRA specialists, and members of expert panels that review the risk based programs

  3. Advances in Risk Analysis with Big Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Tsan-Ming; Lambert, James H

    2017-08-01

    With cloud computing, Internet-of-things, wireless sensors, social media, fast storage and retrieval, etc., organizations and enterprises have access to unprecedented amounts and varieties of data. Current risk analysis methodology and applications are experiencing related advances and breakthroughs. For example, highway operations data are readily available, and making use of them reduces risks of traffic crashes and travel delays. Massive data of financial and enterprise systems support decision making under risk by individuals, industries, regulators, etc. In this introductory article, we first discuss the meaning of big data for risk analysis. We then examine recent advances in risk analysis with big data in several topic areas. For each area, we identify and introduce the relevant articles that are featured in the special issue. We conclude with a discussion on future research opportunities. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  4. Attitudes towards genetic testing: analysis of contradictions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jallinoja, P; Hakonen, A; Aro, A R

    1998-01-01

    A survey study was conducted among 1169 people to evaluate attitudes towards genetic testing in Finland. Here we present an analysis of the contradictions detected in people's attitudes towards genetic testing. This analysis focuses on the approval of genetic testing as an individual choice and o...... studies on attitudes towards genetic testing as well as in the health care context, e.g. in genetic counselling.......A survey study was conducted among 1169 people to evaluate attitudes towards genetic testing in Finland. Here we present an analysis of the contradictions detected in people's attitudes towards genetic testing. This analysis focuses on the approval of genetic testing as an individual choice...... and on the confidence in control of the process of genetic testing and its implications. Our analysis indicated that some of the respondents have contradictory attitudes towards genetic testing. It is proposed that contradictory attitudes towards genetic testing should be given greater significance both in scientific...

  5. CPAS Preflight Drop Test Analysis Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Englert, Megan E.; Bledsoe, Kristin J.; Romero, Leah M.

    2015-01-01

    Throughout the Capsule Parachute Assembly System (CPAS) drop test program, the CPAS Analysis Team has developed a simulation and analysis process to support drop test planning and execution. This process includes multiple phases focused on developing test simulations and communicating results to all groups involved in the drop test. CPAS Engineering Development Unit (EDU) series drop test planning begins with the development of a basic operational concept for each test. Trajectory simulation tools include the Flight Analysis and Simulation Tool (FAST) for single bodies, and the Automatic Dynamic Analysis of Mechanical Systems (ADAMS) simulation for the mated vehicle. Results are communicated to the team at the Test Configuration Review (TCR) and Test Readiness Review (TRR), as well as at Analysis Integrated Product Team (IPT) meetings in earlier and intermediate phases of the pre-test planning. The ability to plan and communicate efficiently with rapidly changing objectives and tight schedule constraints is a necessity for safe and successful drop tests.

  6. 38 CFR 75.115 - Risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Risk analysis. 75.115 Section 75.115 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS (CONTINUED) INFORMATION SECURITY MATTERS Data Breaches § 75.115 Risk analysis. If a data breach involving sensitive personal information that is processed or...

  7. Alternative Testing Methods for Predicting Health Risk from Environmental Exposures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annamaria Colacci

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Alternative methods to animal testing are considered as promising tools to support the prediction of toxicological risks from environmental exposure. Among the alternative testing methods, the cell transformation assay (CTA appears to be one of the most appropriate approaches to predict the carcinogenic properties of single chemicals, complex mixtures and environmental pollutants. The BALB/c 3T3 CTA shows a good degree of concordance with the in vivo rodent carcinogenesis tests. Whole-genome transcriptomic profiling is performed to identify genes that are transcriptionally regulated by different kinds of exposures. Its use in cell models representative of target organs may help in understanding the mode of action and predicting the risk for human health. Aiming at associating the environmental exposure to health-adverse outcomes, we used an integrated approach including the 3T3 CTA and transcriptomics on target cells, in order to evaluate the effects of airborne particulate matter (PM on toxicological complex endpoints. Organic extracts obtained from PM2.5 and PM1 samples were evaluated in the 3T3 CTA in order to identify effects possibly associated with different aerodynamic diameters or airborne chemical components. The effects of the PM2.5 extracts on human health were assessed by using whole-genome 44 K oligo-microarray slides. Statistical analysis by GeneSpring GX identified genes whose expression was modulated in response to the cell treatment. Then, modulated genes were associated with pathways, biological processes and diseases through an extensive biological analysis. Data derived from in vitro methods and omics techniques could be valuable for monitoring the exposure to toxicants, understanding the modes of action via exposure-associated gene expression patterns and to highlight the role of genes in key events related to adversity.

  8. Methods and Models of Market Risk Stress-Testing of the Portfolio of Financial Instruments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander M. Karminsky

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Amid instability of financial markets and macroeconomic situation the necessity of improving bank risk-management instrument arises. New economic reality defines the need for searching for more advanced approaches of estimating banks vulnerability to exceptional, but plausible events. Stress-testing belongs to such instruments. The paper reviews and compares the models of market risk stress-testing of the portfolio of different financial instruments. These days the topic of the paper is highly acute due to the fact that now stress-testing is becoming an integral part of anticrisis risk-management amid macroeconomic instability and appearance of new risks together with close interest to the problem of risk-aggregation. The paper outlines the notion of stress-testing and gives coverage of goals, functions of stress-tests and main criteria for market risk stress-testing classification. The paper also stresses special aspects of scenario analysis. Novelty of the research is explained by elaborating the programme of aggregated complex multifactor stress-testing of the portfolio risk based on scenario analysis. The paper highlights modern Russian and foreign models of stress-testing both on solo-basis and complex. The paper lays emphasis on the results of stress-testing and revaluations of positions for all three complex models: methodology of the Central Bank of stress-testing portfolio risk, model relying on correlations analysis and copula model. The models of stress-testing on solo-basis are different for each financial instrument. Parametric StressVaR model is applicable to shares and options stress-testing;model based on "Grek" indicators is used for options; for euroobligation regional factor model is used. Finally some theoretical recommendations about managing market risk of the portfolio are given.

  9. A background to risk analysis. Vol. 4

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, J.R.

    1979-01-01

    This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles, and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justification or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appendix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 4 treats human error in plant operation. (BP)

  10. Reliability and validity of risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aven, Terje; Heide, Bjornar

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we investigate to what extent risk analysis meets the scientific quality requirements of reliability and validity. We distinguish between two types of approaches within risk analysis, relative frequency-based approaches and Bayesian approaches. The former category includes both traditional statistical inference methods and the so-called probability of frequency approach. Depending on the risk analysis approach, the aim of the analysis is different, the results are presented in different ways and consequently the meaning of the concepts reliability and validity are not the same.

  11. The Influence of Cardiac Risk Factor Burden on Cardiac Stress Test Outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schrock, Jon W; Li, Morgan; Orazulike, Chidubem; Emerman, Charles L

    2011-06-01

    Chest pain is the most common admission diagnosis for observation unit patients. These patients often undergo cardiac stress testing to further risk stratify for coronary artery disease (CAD). The decision of whom to stress is currently based on clinical judgment. We sought to determine the influence of cardiac risk factor burden on cardiac stress test outcome for patients tested from an observation unit, inpatient or outpatient setting. We performed a retrospective observational cohort study for all patients undergoing stress testing in our institution from June 2006 through July 2007. Cardiac risk factors were collected at the time of stress testing. Risk factors were evaluated in a summative fashion using multivariate regression adjusting for age and known coronary artery disease. The model was tested for goodness of fit and collinearity and the c statistic was calculated using the receiver operating curve. A total of 4026 subjects were included for analysis of which 22% had known CAD. The rates of positive outcome were 89 (12.0%), 95 (12.6%), and 343 (16.9%) for the OU, outpatients, and hospitalized patients respectively. While the odds of a positive test outcome increased for additional cardiac risk factors, ROC curve analysis indicates that simply adding the number of risk factors does not add significant diagnostic value. Hospitalized patients were more likely to have a positive stress test, OR 1.41 (1.10 - 1.81). Our study does not support basing the decision to perform a stress test on the number of cardiac risk factors.

  12. Probabilistic risk analysis for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hauptmanns, U.

    1988-01-01

    Risk analysis is applied if the calculation of risk from observed failures is not possible, because events contributing substantially to risk are too seldom, as in the case of nuclear reactors. The process of analysis provides a number of benefits. Some of them are listed. After this by no means complete enumeration of possible benefits to be derived from a risk analysis. An outline of risk studiesd for PWR's with some comments on the models used are given. The presentation is indebted to the detailed treatment of the subject given in the PRA Procedures Guide. Thereafter some results of the German Risk Study, Phase B, which is under way are communicated. The paper concludes with some remarks on probabilistic considerations in licensing procedures. (orig./DG)

  13. Bias in risk-benefit analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mazur, A.

    1985-01-01

    Risk-benefit analysis has become popular in the past decade as a means of improving decision making, especially in the area of technology policy. Here risk-benefit analysis is compared to other (equally defensible) approaches to decision making, showing how it favors some political interests more than others, and suggesting why it has recently come to the fore as a tool of political analysis. A considerable portion of the discussion concerns nuclear power. 6 references

  14. Collision Risk Analysis for HSC

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Urban, Jesper; Pedersen, Preben Terndrup; Simonsen, Bo Cerup

    1999-01-01

    High Speed Craft (HSC) have a risk profile, which is distinctly different from conventional ferries. Due to different hull building material, structural layout, compartmentation and operation, both frequency and consequences of collision and grounding accidents must be expected to be different fr...

  15. Generalized indices for radiation risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bykov, A.A.; Demin, V.F.

    1989-01-01

    A new approach to ensuring nuclear safety has begun forming since the early eighties. The approach based on the probabilistic safety analysis, the principles of acceptable risk, the optimization of safety measures, etc. has forced a complex of adequate quantitative methods of assessment, safety analysis and risk management to be developed. The method of radiation risk assessment and analysis hold a prominent place in the complex. National and international research and regulatory organizations ICRP, IAEA, WHO, UNSCEAR, OECD/NEA have given much attention to the development of the conceptual and methodological basis of those methods. Some resolutions of the National Commission of Radiological Protection (NCRP) and the Problem Commission on Radiation Hygiene of the USSR Ministry of Health should be also noted. Both CBA (cost benefit analysis) and other methods of radiation risk analysis and safety management use a system of natural and socio-economic indices characterizing the radiation risk or damage. There exist a number of problems associated with the introduction, justification and use of these indices. For example, the price, a, of radiation damage, or collective dose unit, is a noteworthy index. The difficulties in its qualitative and quantitative determination are still an obstacle for a wide application of CBA to the radiation risk analysis and management. During recent 10-15 years these problems have been a subject of consideration for many authors. The present paper also considers the issues of the qualitative and quantitative justification of the indices of radiation risk analysis

  16. Negative HPV screening test predicts low cervical cancer risk better than negative Pap test

    Science.gov (United States)

    Based on a study that included more than 1 million women, investigators at NCI have determined that a negative test for HPV infection compared to a negative Pap test provides greater safety, or assurance, against future risk of cervical cancer.

  17. Improving STD testing behavior among high-risk young adults by offering STD testing at a vocational school

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hoebe Christian JPA

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Chlamydia trachomatis infection (CT is the most prevalent bacterial STD. Sexually active adolescents and young adults are the main risk group for CT. However, STD testing rates in this group are low since exposed individuals may not feel at risk, owing-at least in part-to the infection's largely asymptomatic nature. Designing new testing environments that are more appealing to young people who are most at risk of acquiring chlamydia can be an important strategy to improve overall testing rates. Here we evaluate the effect of a school-based sexual health program conducted among vocational school students, aiming to obtain better access for counseling and enhance students' STD testing behavior. Methods Adolescents (median age 19 years attending a large vocational school were provided with sexual health education. Students filled in a questionnaire measuring CT risk and were offered STD testing. Using univariate and multivariate analysis, we assessed differences between men and women in STD-related risk behavior, sexual problems, CT testing behavior and determinants of CT testing behavior. Results Of 345 participants, 70% were female. Of the 287 sexually active students, 75% were at high risk for CT; one third of women reported sexual problems. Of sexually active participants, 61% provided a self-administered specimen for STD testing. Independent determinants for testing included STD related symptoms and no condom use. All CT diagnoses were in the high-CT-risk group. In the high-risk group, STD testing showed an increased uptake, from 27% (previous self-reported test to 65% (current test. CT prevalence was 5.7%. Conclusions Vocational school students are a target population for versatile sexual health prevention. When provided with CT testing facilities and education, self selection mechanisms seemed to increase CT testing rate dramatically in this high-CT-risk population expressing sexual problems. Considering the relative ease

  18. Comparative effectiveness of 50g glucose challenge test and risk ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... of 50g glucose challenge test and risk factor based screening in detection of ... Mean maternal and gestational ages at recruitment were 30.8+1.2 years and ... Predictive Value, PPV - 20%) compared to risk factors only (PPV- 11.1%).

  19. Judgments of Risk Frequencies: Tests of Possible Cognitive Mechanisms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hertwig, Ralph; Pachur, Thorsten; Kurzenhauser, Stephanie

    2005-01-01

    How do people judge which of 2 risks claims more lives per year? The authors specified 4 candidate mechanisms and tested them against people's judgments in 3 risk environments. Two mechanisms, availability by recall and regressed frequency, conformed best to people's choices. The same mechanisms also accounted well for the mapping accuracy of…

  20. TESTING FOR RISK PREMIUMS IN THE WHEAT-FLOUR SUBSECTOR

    OpenAIRE

    Cotterill, Ronald W.; Salih, Hachim M.

    1992-01-01

    This paper specifies a model of wholesale flour price determination that incorporates risk measures for input prices (wheat) and a joint output price (millfeed). Tests using daily price data for a Buffalo flour miller indicate that risk premiums do exist. Moreover, these premiums persist in a model that incorporates hedging.

  1. Safety analysis, risk assessment, and risk acceptance criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jamali, K.

    1997-01-01

    This paper discusses a number of topics that relate safety analysis as documented in the Department of Energy (DOE) safety analysis reports (SARs), probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) as characterized primarily in the context of the techniques that have assumed some level of formality in commercial nuclear power plant applications, and risk acceptance criteria as an outgrowth of PRA applications. DOE SARs of interest are those that are prepared for DOE facilities under DOE Order 5480.23 and the implementing guidance in DOE STD-3009-94. It must be noted that the primary area of application for DOE STD-3009 is existing DOE facilities and that certain modifications of the STD-3009 approach are necessary in SARs for new facilities. Moreover, it is the hazard analysis (HA) and accident analysis (AA) portions of these SARs that are relevant to the present discussions. Although PRAs can be qualitative in nature, PRA as used in this paper refers more generally to all quantitative risk assessments and their underlying methods. HA as used in this paper refers more generally to all qualitative risk assessments and their underlying methods that have been in use in hazardous facilities other than nuclear power plants. This discussion includes both quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methods. PRA has been used, improved, developed, and refined since the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) was published in 1975 by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Much debate has ensued since WASH-1400 on exactly what the role of PRA should be in plant design, reactor licensing, 'ensuring' plant and process safety, and a large number of other decisions that must be made for potentially hazardous activities. Of particular interest in this area is whether the risks quantified using PRA should be compared with numerical risk acceptance criteria (RACs) to determine whether a facility is 'safe.' Use of RACs requires quantitative estimates of consequence frequency and magnitude

  2. GIS risk analysis of hazardous materials transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anders, C.; Olsten, J.

    1991-01-01

    The Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to assess the risks and vulnerability of transporting hazardous materials and wastes (such as gasoline, explosives, poisons, etc) on the Arizona highway system. This paper discusses the methodology that was utilized, and the application of GIS systems to risk analysis problems

  3. Dealing with phenomenological uncertainty in risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Theofanous, T.G.

    1994-01-01

    The Risk-Oriented Accident Analysis Methodology (ROAAM) is summarized and developed further towards a formal definition. The key ideas behind the methodology and these more formal aspects are also presented and discussed

  4. Risk and safety analysis of nuclear systems

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lee, John C; McCormick, Norman J

    2011-01-01

    .... The first half of the book covers the principles of risk analysis, the techniques used to develop and update a reliability data base, the reliability of multi-component systems, Markov methods used...

  5. Risk analysis for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koelzer, W.

    1983-01-01

    The German risk analysis program for nuclear power plants aiming at the man and the environment is presented. An accident consequence model to calculate the radiological impact and the potential health effects is described. (E.G.) [pt

  6. Cost benefit and risk assessment for selected tank waste process testing alternatives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gasper, K.A.

    1995-01-01

    The US Department of Energy has established the Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) program to safely manage wastes currently stored in underground tank at the Hanford Site. A TWRS testing and development strategy was recently developed to define long-range TWRS testing plans. The testing and development strategy considered four alternatives. The primary variable in the alternatives is the level of pilot-scale testing involving actual waste. This study evaluates the cost benefit and risks associated with the four alternatives. Four types of risk were evaluated: programmatic schedule risk, process mishap risk, worker risk, and public health risk. The structure of this report is as follows: Section 1 introduces the report subject; Section 2 describes the test strategy alternative evaluation; Section 3 describes the approach used in this study to assess risk and cost benefit; Section 4 describes the assessment methodologies for costs and risks; Section 5 describes the bases and assumptions used to estimate the costs and risks; Section 6 presents the detailed costs and risks; and Section 7 describes the results of the cost benefit analysis and presents conclusions

  7. Apparently conclusive meta-analyses may be inconclusive--Trial sequential analysis adjustment of random error risk due to repetitive testing of accumulating data in apparently conclusive neonatal meta-analyses

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brok, Jesper; Thorlund, Kristian; Wetterslev, Jørn

    2008-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Random error may cause misleading evidence in meta-analyses. The required number of participants in a meta-analysis (i.e. information size) should be at least as large as an adequately powered single trial. Trial sequential analysis (TSA) may reduce risk of random errors due to repeti......BACKGROUND: Random error may cause misleading evidence in meta-analyses. The required number of participants in a meta-analysis (i.e. information size) should be at least as large as an adequately powered single trial. Trial sequential analysis (TSA) may reduce risk of random errors due...

  8. Seismically induced accident sequence analysis of the advanced test reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khericha, S.T.; Henry, D.M.; Ravindra, M.K.; Hashimoto, P.S.; Griffin, M.J.; Tong, W.H.; Nafday, A.M.

    1991-01-01

    A seismic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) was performed for the Department of Energy (DOE) Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) as part of the external events analysis. The risk from seismic events to the fuel in the core and in the fuel storage canal was evaluated. The key elements of this paper are the integration of seismically induced internal flood and internal fire, and the modeling of human error rates as a function of the magnitude of earthquake. The systems analysis was performed by EG ampersand G Idaho, Inc. and the fragility analysis and quantification were performed by EQE International, Inc. (EQE)

  9. Stress Testing as a Tool of Bank Risk Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonyuk Oksana I.

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The goal of the article is development of theoretical, methodological and practical recommendations on the use of stress testing by Ukrainian commercial banks. Stress testing is defined as a part of bank risk management on the basis of scientific studies of domestic and foreign scientists. The article marks the essence of the bank stress testing and identifies its role in the structure of banks’ risk management in Ukraine. It considers goals of conducting stress testing in banking institutions. It identifies main aspects and specific features of conducting stress testing of bank risks. It characterises main advantages and shortcomings of use of stress testing in the modern bank risk management. It generalises the world and European approaches to the methods of conducting stress testing in commercial banks in comparison with the Ukrainian methodical recommendations. It shows that results of stress testing have practical value, since they help to preliminary assess influence of potentially negative events upon the state of the loan portfolio of the bank and make relevant managerial decisions.

  10. Probabilistic risk analysis in chemical engineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmalz, F.

    1991-01-01

    In risk analysis in the chemical industry, recognising potential risks is considered more important than assessing their quantitative extent. Even in assessing risks, emphasis is not on the probability involved but on the possible extent. Qualitative assessment has proved valuable here. Probabilistic methods are used in individual cases where the wide implications make it essential to be able to assess the reliability of safety precautions. In this case, assessment therefore centres on the reliability of technical systems and not on the extent of a chemical risk. 7 figs

  11. Minigenerator - Analysis, Design and Tests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pavel Fiala

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents results of the analysis of the vibrational generator. The paper deals with the design of a vibrational generator that is used as a power supply for independent electric circuits. The vibrational generator can be used in the various areas, e.g. traffic, electronics, special-purpose machines, and robotics. The proposed design employs magnetic damping of the core movement. It was numerically evaluated and it was shown that it was possible to obtain significantly larger output voltage and output power than in experimental settings used previously [1].

  12. Flight test trajectory control analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, R.; Gupta, N.

    1983-01-01

    Recent extensions to optimal control theory applied to meaningful linear models with sufficiently flexible software tools provide powerful techniques for designing flight test trajectory controllers (FTTCs). This report describes the principal steps for systematic development of flight trajectory controllers, which can be summarized as planning, modeling, designing, and validating a trajectory controller. The techniques have been kept as general as possible and should apply to a wide range of problems where quantities must be computed and displayed to a pilot to improve pilot effectiveness and to reduce workload and fatigue. To illustrate the approach, a detailed trajectory guidance law is developed and demonstrated for the F-15 aircraft flying the zoom-and-pushover maneuver.

  13. Reliability and risk analysis methods research plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1984-10-01

    This document presents a plan for reliability and risk analysis methods research to be performed mainly by the Reactor Risk Branch (RRB), Division of Risk Analysis and Operations (DRAO), Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research. It includes those activities of other DRAO branches which are very closely related to those of the RRB. Related or interfacing programs of other divisions, offices and organizations are merely indicated. The primary use of this document is envisioned as an NRC working document, covering about a 3-year period, to foster better coordination in reliability and risk analysis methods development between the offices of Nuclear Regulatory Research and Nuclear Reactor Regulation. It will also serve as an information source for contractors and others to more clearly understand the objectives, needs, programmatic activities and interfaces together with the overall logical structure of the program

  14. Gender Analysis of Risk in Innovation System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ayinde, Ope; Muchie, Mammo; Abaniyan, E. O.

    2011-01-01

    the new maize variety. The analytical tools used include descriptive statistics, regression model; risk utility functions and risk parameter analysis. The result showed that invasion by animals, disease and pest, lack of access to credit wind and price fluctuation were the major risk facing the maize......This study analyzed risk by gender in innovation in Kwara state, Nigeria, using downy mildew resistant maize production as case study. The study employed primary and secondary data. The primary data were collected from well-structured questionnaires administered to both male and female producing...... producers in the area in the usage of the new innovation. The study also revealed that male producers were willing to take risk in the new maize variety production than the female, while the females were more indifferent to the risk involved in the new maize production variety than males. None...

  15. Intentional risk management through complex networks analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Chapela, Victor; Moral, Santiago; Romance, Miguel

    2015-01-01

    This book combines game theory and complex networks to examine intentional technological risk through modeling. As information security risks are in constant evolution,  the methodologies and tools to manage them must evolve to an ever-changing environment. A formal global methodology is explained  in this book, which is able to analyze risks in cyber security based on complex network models and ideas extracted from the Nash equilibrium. A risk management methodology for IT critical infrastructures is introduced which provides guidance and analysis on decision making models and real situations. This model manages the risk of succumbing to a digital attack and assesses an attack from the following three variables: income obtained, expense needed to carry out an attack, and the potential consequences for an attack. Graduate students and researchers interested in cyber security, complex network applications and intentional risk will find this book useful as it is filled with a number of models, methodologies a...

  16. Item Analysis in Introductory Economics Testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tinari, Frank D.

    1979-01-01

    Computerized analysis of multiple choice test items is explained. Examples of item analysis applications in the introductory economics course are discussed with respect to three objectives: to evaluate learning; to improve test items; and to help improve classroom instruction. Problems, costs and benefits of the procedures are identified. (JMD)

  17. Malware Analysis Sandbox Testing Methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zoltan Balazs

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Manual processing of malware samples became impossible years ago. Sandboxes are used to automate the analysis of malware samples to gather information about the dynamic behaviour of the malware, both at AV companies and at enterprises. Some malware samples use known techniques to detect when it runs in a sandbox, but most of these sandbox detection techniques can be easily detected and thus flagged as malicious. I invented new approaches to detect these sandboxes. I developed a tool, which can collect a lot of interesting information from these sandboxes to create statistics how the current technologies work. After analysing these results I will demonstrate tricks to detect sandboxes. These tricks can’t be easily flagged as malicious. Some sandboxes don’t not interact with the Internet in order to block data extraction, but with some DNS-fu the information can be extracted from these appliances as well.

  18. Risk-based inservice testing program modifications at Palo Verde nuclear generating station

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Knauf, S.; Lindenlaub, B.; Linthicum, R.

    1996-12-01

    Arizona Public Service Company (APS) is investigating changes to the Palo Verde Inservice Testing (IST) Program that are intended to result in the reduction of the required test frequency for various valves in the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Section XI IST program. The analytical techniques employed to select candidate valves and to demonstrate that these frequency reductions are acceptable are risk based. The results of the Palo Verde probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), updated in June 1994, and the risk significant determination performed as part of the implementation efforts for 10 CFR 50.65 (the maintenance rule) were used to select candidate valves for extended test intervals. Additional component level evaluations were conducted by an `expert panel.` The decision to pursue these changes was facilitated by the ASME Risk-Based Inservice Testing Research Task Force for which Palo Verde is participating as a pilot plant. The NRC`s increasing acceptance of cost beneficial licensing actions and risk-based submittals also provided incentive to seek these changes. Arizona Public Service is pursuing the risk-based IST program modification in order to reduce the unnecessary regulatory burden of the IST program through qualitative and quantitative analysis consistent with maintaining a high level of plant safety. The objectives of this project at Palo Verde are as follows: (1) Apply risk-based technologies to IST components to determine their risk significance (i.e., high or low). (2) Apply a combination of deterministic and risk-based methods to determine appropriate testing requirements for IST components including improvement of testing methods and frequency intervals for high-risk significant components. (3) Apply risk-based technologies to high-risk significant components identified by the {open_quotes}expert panel{close_quotes} and outside of the IST program to determine whether additional testing requirements are appropriate.

  19. Risk-based inservice testing program modifications at Palo Verde nuclear generating station

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knauf, S.; Lindenlaub, B.; Linthicum, R.

    1996-01-01

    Arizona Public Service Company (APS) is investigating changes to the Palo Verde Inservice Testing (IST) Program that are intended to result in the reduction of the required test frequency for various valves in the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Section XI IST program. The analytical techniques employed to select candidate valves and to demonstrate that these frequency reductions are acceptable are risk based. The results of the Palo Verde probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), updated in June 1994, and the risk significant determination performed as part of the implementation efforts for 10 CFR 50.65 (the maintenance rule) were used to select candidate valves for extended test intervals. Additional component level evaluations were conducted by an 'expert panel.' The decision to pursue these changes was facilitated by the ASME Risk-Based Inservice Testing Research Task Force for which Palo Verde is participating as a pilot plant. The NRC's increasing acceptance of cost beneficial licensing actions and risk-based submittals also provided incentive to seek these changes. Arizona Public Service is pursuing the risk-based IST program modification in order to reduce the unnecessary regulatory burden of the IST program through qualitative and quantitative analysis consistent with maintaining a high level of plant safety. The objectives of this project at Palo Verde are as follows: (1) Apply risk-based technologies to IST components to determine their risk significance (i.e., high or low). (2) Apply a combination of deterministic and risk-based methods to determine appropriate testing requirements for IST components including improvement of testing methods and frequency intervals for high-risk significant components. (3) Apply risk-based technologies to high-risk significant components identified by the open-quotes expert panelclose quotes and outside of the IST program to determine whether additional testing requirements are appropriate

  20. Accident analysis of HANARO fuel test loop

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, J. Y.; Chi, D. Y

    1998-03-01

    Steady state fuel test loop will be equipped in HANARO to obtain the development and betterment of advanced fuel and materials through the irradiation tests. The HANARO fuel test loop was designed to match the CANDU and PWR fuel operating conditions. The accident analysis was performed by RELAP5/MOD3 code based on FTL system designs and determined the detail engineering specification of in-pile test section and out-pile systems. The accident analysis results of FTL system could be used for the fuel and materials designer to plan the irradiation testing programs. (author). 23 refs., 20 tabs., 178 figs.

  1. Methodology for risk-based analysis of technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vesely, W.E.; Gaertner, J.P.; Wagner, D.P.

    1985-01-01

    Part of the effort by EPRI to apply probabilistic risk assessment methods and results to the solution of utility problems involves the investigation of methods for risk-based analysis of technical specifications. The culmination of this investigation is the SOCRATES computer code developed by Battelle's Columbus Laboratories to assist in the evaluation of technical specifications of nuclear power plants. The program is designed to use information found in PRAs to re-evaluate risk for changes in component allowed outage times (AOTs) and surveillance test intervals (STIs). The SOCRATES program is a unique and important tool for technical specification evaluations. The detailed component unavailability model allows a detailed analysis of AOT and STI contributions to risk. Explicit equations allow fast and inexpensive calculations. Because the code is designed to accept ranges of parameters and to save results of calculations that do not change during the analysis, sensitivity studies are efficiently performed and results are clearly displayed

  2. Component evaluation testing and analysis algorithms.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hart, Darren M.; Merchant, Bion John

    2011-10-01

    The Ground-Based Monitoring R&E Component Evaluation project performs testing on the hardware components that make up Seismic and Infrasound monitoring systems. The majority of the testing is focused on the Digital Waveform Recorder (DWR), Seismic Sensor, and Infrasound Sensor. In order to guarantee consistency, traceability, and visibility into the results of the testing process, it is necessary to document the test and analysis procedures that are in place. Other reports document the testing procedures that are in place (Kromer, 2007). This document serves to provide a comprehensive overview of the analysis and the algorithms that are applied to the Component Evaluation testing. A brief summary of each test is included to provide the context for the analysis that is to be performed.

  3. Standardised risk analysis as a communication tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pluess, Ch.; Montanarini, M.; Bernauer, M.

    1998-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: several European countries require a risk analysis for the production, storage or transport a dangerous goods. This requirement imposes considerable administrative effort for some sectors of the industry. In order to minimize the effort of such studies, a generic risk analysis for an industrial sector proved to help. Standardised procedures can consequently be derived for efficient performance of the risk investigations. This procedure was successfully established in Switzerland for natural gas transmission lines and fossil fuel storage plants. The development process of the generic risk analysis involved an intense discussion between industry and authorities about methodology of assessment and the criteria of acceptance. This process finally led to scientific consistent modelling tools for risk analysis and to an improved communication from the industry to the authorities and the public. As a recent example, the Holland-Italy natural gas transmission pipeline is demonstrated, where this method was successfully employed. Although this pipeline traverses densely populated areas in Switzerland, using this established communication method, the risk problems could be solved without delaying the planning process. (authors)

  4. Testing the cultural theory of risk in France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brenot, J.; Bonnefous, S.; Marris, C.

    1998-01-01

    Cultural Theory, as developed by Mary Douglas, argues that differing risk perceptions can be explained by reference to four distinct cultural biases: hierarchy, egalitarianism, individualism, and fatalism. This paper presents empirical results from a quantitative survey based on a questionnaire devised by Karl Dake to measure these cultural biases. A large representative sample was used to test this instrument in the French social context. Correlations between cultural biases and perceptions of 20 social and environmental risks were examined. These correlations were very weak, but were statistically significant: cultural biases explained 6%, at most, of the variance in risk perceptions. Standard socio-demographic variables were also weakly related to risk perceptions (especially gender, social class, and education), and cultural biases and socio-demographic variables were themselves intercorrelated (especially with age, social class, and political outlook). The authors compare these results with surveys conducted in other countries using the same instrument and conclude that new methods, more qualitative and contextual, still need to be developed to investigate the cultural dimensions of risk perceptions. The paper also discusses relationships between perceptions of personal and residual risk, and between perceived risk and demand for additional safety measures. These three dimensions were generally closely related, but interesting differences were observed for some risk issues. Included in the list of risk perceptions were pollution, hazardous materials, and radioactive wastes

  5. Pain on Functional Movement Screen Tests and Injury Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bushman, Timothy T; Grier, Tyson L; Canham-Chervak, Michelle C; Anderson, Morgan K; North, William J; Jones, Bruce H

    2015-11-01

    The Functional Movement Screen (FMS) is a tool intended to evaluate limitations or asymmetries of movement to detect individuals at risk for exercise- and sports-related injury. The purpose was to determine the association and predictive value of specific FMS tests with injury risk in physically active men. Soldiers aged 18-57 years completed the FMS (n = 2,476). Demographic and fitness data were collected by survey. Medical record data for any, overuse, and traumatic injury 6 months after the assessment were obtained. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value were calculated along with receiver operator characteristics to determine area under the curve (AUC). Risks, risk ratios, odds ratios (ORs), and 95% confidence intervals were calculated to assess injury risks. Multivariate logistic regression identified that pain on 5 of the 7 tests was associated with greater risk for any injury (OR = 1.50-3.51): deep squat, hurdle step, in-line lunge, trunk stability push-up, and rotary stability. However, FMS registered low sensitivity, PPV, and AUC for all 7 tests for the 3 injury types (2-24% sensitivity, 16-74% PPV, and 50-58% AUC). Although the presence of pain was associated with a higher risk of injury on 5 tests, a low sensitivity, PPV, and AUC were displayed. Therefore, caution is advised when implementing the FMS as a screening tool in an Army or similarly active population as it could lead to prevention and treatment resources being directed toward individuals who are not at greater risk for injury.

  6. Common Risk Criteria Standards for National Test Ranges

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-08-01

    supplemental) document to RCC Document 321. a. Modified aircraft vulnerability criteria for business class jets. b. Modified the aircraft vulnerability... successful , the logical relationships among criteria used at the test ranges and across different hazards are often difficult to comprehend. The...provides a common set of range safety policies, risk criteria, and guidelines for managing risk to people and assets during manned and unmanned

  7. Risk analysis with regard to nuclear engineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birkhofer, A.

    1980-01-01

    The author discusses the following questions: why are risk analyses elaborated. How are they carried out and which problems may arise. Completeness problem, data, human factors, common-mode-failures, accident simulation. To give an idea of the applicability of the results of risk analyses the author deals with systems comparison and system optimization, maintenance and testing strategies, incidents and the course of accidents that have to be considered in designing technical safety measures for nuclear power plants. Finally, the author tries to enter into questions that might arise due to the effects risk analyses may create in the general public. (HSCH) [de

  8. EC Transmission Line Risk Identification and Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bigelow, Tim S [ORNL

    2012-04-01

    The purpose of this document is to assist in evaluating and planning for the cost, schedule, and technical project risks associated with the delivery and operation of the EC (Electron cyclotron) transmission line system. In general, the major risks that are anticipated to be encountered during the project delivery phase associated with the implementation of the Procurement Arrangement for the EC transmission line system are associated with: (1) Undefined or changing requirements (e.g., functional or regulatory requirements) (2) Underperformance of prototype, first unit, or production components during testing (3) Unavailability of qualified vendors for critical components Technical risks associated with the design and operation of the system are also identified.

  9. Testing the Predictive Validity of the Hendrich II Fall Risk Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Hyesil; Park, Hyeoun-Ae

    2018-03-01

    Cumulative data on patient fall risk have been compiled in electronic medical records systems, and it is possible to test the validity of fall-risk assessment tools using these data between the times of admission and occurrence of a fall. The Hendrich II Fall Risk Model scores assessed during three time points of hospital stays were extracted and used for testing the predictive validity: (a) upon admission, (b) when the maximum fall-risk score from admission to falling or discharge, and (c) immediately before falling or discharge. Predictive validity was examined using seven predictive indicators. In addition, logistic regression analysis was used to identify factors that significantly affect the occurrence of a fall. Among the different time points, the maximum fall-risk score assessed between admission and falling or discharge showed the best predictive performance. Confusion or disorientation and having a poor ability to rise from a sitting position were significant risk factors for a fall.

  10. Liquidity Risk Management: An Empirical Analysis on Panel Data Analysis and ISE Banking Sector

    OpenAIRE

    Sibel ÇELİK; Yasemin Deniz AKARIM

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we test the factors affecting liquidity risk management in banking sector in Turkey by using panel regression analysis. We use the data for 9 commercial banks traded in Istanbul Stock Exchange for the period 1998-2008. In conclusion, we find that risky liquid assets and return on equity variables are negatively related with liquidity risk. However, external financing and return on asset variables are positively related with liquidity risk. This finding is importance for banks s...

  11. Risk analysis of industrial plants operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, Philippe

    1989-12-01

    This study examines the possibilities of systematic technology risk analysis in view of territorial management (city, urban community, region), including chronic and accidental risks. The objective was to relate this evaluation with those done for permanent water and air pollution. Risk management for pollution are done for a long time. A number of studies were done in urban communities and regions both for air and water pollution. The second objective is related to management of industrial risks: nuclear, petrochemical, transport of hazardous material, pipelines, etc. At the beginning, three possibilities of effects are taken into account: human health, economic aspect and water, and possibilities of evaluation are identified. Elements of risk identification are presented for quantification of results [fr

  12. LANDSAFE: LANDING SITE RISK ANALYSIS SOFTWARE FRAMEWORK

    OpenAIRE

    Schmidt, Ralph; Bostelmann, Jonas; Cornet, Yves; Heipke, Christian; Philippe, Christian; Poncelet, Nadia; de Rosa, Diego; Vandeloise, Yannick

    2012-01-01

    The European Space Agency (ESA) is planning a Lunar Lander mission in the 2018 timeframe that will demonstrate precise soft landing at the polar regions of the Moon. To ensure a safe and successful landing a careful risk analysis has to be carried out. This is comprised of identifying favorable target areas and evaluating the surface conditions in these areas. Features like craters, boulders, steep slopes, rough surfaces and shadow areas have to be identified in order to assess the risk assoc...

  13. Impact Analysis for Risks in Informatics Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Baicu, Floarea; Baches, Maria Alexandra

    2013-01-01

    In this paper are presented methods of impact analysis on informatics system security accidents, qualitative and quantitative methods, starting with risk and informational system security definitions. It is presented the relationship between the risks of exploiting vulnerabilities of security system, security level of these informatics systems, probability of exploiting the weak points subject to financial losses of a company, respectively impact of a security accident on the company. Herewit...

  14. Risk Mitigation Testing with the BepiColombo MPO SADA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zemann, J.; Heinrich, B.; Skulicz, A.; Madsen, M.; Weisenstein, W.; Modugno, F.; Althaus, F.; Panhofer, T.; Osterseher, G.

    2013-09-01

    A Solar Array (SA) Drive Assembly (SADA) for the BepiColombo mission is being developed and qualified at RUAG Space Zürich (RSSZ). The system is consisting of the Solar Array Drive Mechanism (SADM) and the Solar Array Drive Electronics (SADE) which is subcontracted to RUAG Space Austria (RSA).This paper deals with the risk mitigation activities and the lesson learnt from this development. In specific following topics substantiated by bread board (BB) test results will be addressed in detail:Slipring Bread Board Test: Verification of lifetime and electrical performance of carbon brush technology Potentiometer BB Tests: Focus on lifetime verification (> 650000 revolution) and accuracy requirement SADM EM BB Test: Subcomponent (front-bearing and gearbox) characterization; complete test campaign equivalent to QM test.EM SADM/ SADE Combined Test: Verification of combined performance (accuracy, torque margin) and micro-vibration testing of SADA systemSADE Bread Board Test: Parameter optimization; Test campaign equivalent to QM testThe main improvements identified in frame of BB testing and already implemented in the SADM EM/QM and SADE EQM are:• Improved preload device for gearbox• Improved motor ball-bearing assembly• Position sensor improvements• Calibration process for potentiometer• SADE motor controller optimization toachieve required running smoothness• Overall improvement of test equipment.

  15. Post-test analysis of PANDA test P4

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hart, J.; Woudstra, A.; Koning, H.

    1999-01-01

    The results of a post-test analysis of the integral system test P4, which has been executed in the PANDA facility at PSI in Switzerland within the framework of Work Package 2 of the TEPSS project are presented. The post-test analysis comprises an evaluation of the PANDA test P4 and a comparison of the test results with the results of simulations using the RELAPS/MOD3.2, TRAC-BF1, and MELCOR 1.8.4 codes. The PANDA test P4 has provided data about how trapped air released from the drywell later in the transient affects PCCS performance in an adequate manner. The well-defined measurements can serve as an important database for the assessment of thermal hydraulic system analysis codes, especially for conditions that could be met in passively operated advanced reactors, i.e. low pressure and small driving forces. Based on the analysis of the test data, the test acceptance criteria have been met. The test P4 has been successfully completed and the instrument readings were with the permitted ranges. The PCCs showed a favorable and robust performance and a wide margin for decay heat removal from the containment. The PANDA P4 test demonstrated that trapped air, released from the drywell later in the transient, only temporarily and only slightly affected the performance of the passive containment cooling system. The analysis of the results of the RELAPS code showed that the overall behaviour of the test has been calculated quite well with regards to pressure, mass flow rates, and pool boil-down. This accounts both for the pre-test and the post-test simulations. However, due to the one-dimensional, stacked-volume modeling of the PANDA DW, WW, and GDCS vessels, 3D-effects such as in-vessel mixing and recirculation could not be calculated. The post-test MELCOR simulation showed an overall behaviour that is comparable to RELAPS. However, MELCOR calculated almost no air trapping in the PCC tubes that could hinder the steam condensation rate. This resulted in lower calculated

  16. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  17. Analysis of Peach Bottom turbine trip tests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheng, H.S.; Lu, M.S.; Hsu, C.J.; Shier, W.G.; Diamond, D.J.; Levine, M.M.; Odar, F.

    1979-01-01

    Current interest in the analysis of turbine trip transients has been generated by the recent tests performed at the Peach Bottom (Unit 2) reactor. Three tests, simulating turbine trip transients, were performed at different initial power and coolant flow conditions. The data from these tests provide considerable information to aid qualification of computer codes that are currently used in BWR design analysis. The results are presented of an analysis of a turbine trip transient using the RELAP-3B and the BNL-TWIGL computer codes. Specific results are provided comparing the calculated reactor power and system pressures with the test data. Excellent agreement for all three test transients is evident from the comparisons

  18. An exploratory study of HIV risk behaviours and testing among male sex workers in Beirut, Lebanon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aunon, Frances M.; Wagner, Glenn J.; Maher, Rabih; Khouri, Danielle; Kaplan, Rachel L.; Mokhbat, Jacques

    2015-01-01

    Male sex workers (MSW) are a particularly high-risk subset of men who have sex with men in Lebanon and report higher numbers of sex partners and lower rates of condom use. The purpose was to explore the factors influencing sexual risk behaviors and HIV testing among MSW. Qualitative interviews were conducted with 16 MSW living in Beirut and working in bathhouses (hammam) or as escorts; content analysis identified emergent themes. Escorts reported more consistent condom use with clients and HIV testing than hammam MSW, with influential factors including HIV risk knowledge and perceived risk susceptibility, job security, and internalized stigma and related feelings of self-worth and fatalism regarding health and HIV risk. In contrast, both groups of MSW typically opted not to condoms with nonclient sex partners, in an effort to differentiate sex for work versus pleasure. The uptake of HIV testing was limited by concerns about the confidentiality of the test results and fear of repercussions of a positive test result for their health and employment. The respondents described an insular existence within the sex work culture, in part to limit exposure to stigma, which has implications for access to support as well as the influence of peer norms regarding sexual risk behavior and health seeking behaviors such as HIV testing. Further research is needed to tailor prevention and HIV testing efforts to reflect the distinct sexual health “cultures” that distinguish these two populations of MSW in Lebanon. PMID:25950906

  19. An Analysis of Rocket Propulsion Testing Costs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramirez, Carmen; Rahman, Shamim

    2010-01-01

    The primary mission at NASA Stennis Space Center (SSC) is rocket propulsion testing. Such testing is commonly characterized as one of two types: production testing for certification and acceptance of engine hardware, and developmental testing for prototype evaluation or research and development (R&D) purposes. For programmatic reasons there is a continuing need to assess and evaluate the test costs for the various types of test campaigns that involve liquid rocket propellant test articles. Presently, in fact, there is a critical need to provide guidance on what represents a best value for testing and provide some key economic insights for decision-makers within NASA and the test customers outside the Agency. Hence, selected rocket propulsion test databases and references have been evaluated and analyzed with the intent to discover correlations of technical information and test costs that could help produce more reliable and accurate cost projections in the future. The process of searching, collecting, and validating propulsion test cost information presented some unique obstacles which then led to a set of recommendations for improvement in order to facilitate future cost information gathering and analysis. In summary, this historical account and evaluation of rocket propulsion test cost information will enhance understanding of the various kinds of project cost information; identify certain trends of interest to the aerospace testing community.

  20. New algorithm for risk analysis in radiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Torres, Antonio; Montes de Oca, Joe

    2015-01-01

    Risk analyses applied to radiotherapy treatments have become an undeniable necessity, considering the dangers generated by the combination of using powerful radiation fields on patients and the occurrence of human errors and equipment failures during these treatments. The technique par excellence to execute these analyses has been the risk matrix. This paper presents the development of a new algorithm to execute the task with wide graphic and analytic potentialities, thus transforming it into a very useful option for risk monitoring and the optimization of quality assurance. The system SECURE- MR, which is the basic software of this algorithm, has been successfully used in risk analysis regarding different kinds of radiotherapies. Compared to previous methods, It offers new possibilities of analysis considering risk controlling factors as the robustness of reducers of initiators frequency and its consequences. Their analytic capacities and graphs allow novel developments to classify risk contributing factors, to represent information processes as well as accidental sequences. The paper shows the application of the proposed system to a generic process of radiotherapy treatment using a lineal accelerator. (author)

  1. Advanced CMOS Radiation Effects Testing and Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pellish, J. A.; Marshall, P. W.; Rodbell, K. P.; Gordon, M. S.; LaBel, K. A.; Schwank, J. R.; Dodds, N. A.; Castaneda, C. M.; Berg, M. D.; Kim, H. S.; hide

    2014-01-01

    Presentation at the annual NASA Electronic Parts and Packaging (NEPP) Program Electronic Technology Workshop (ETW). The material includes an update of progress in this NEPP task area over the past year, which includes testing, evaluation, and analysis of radiation effects data on the IBM 32 nm silicon-on-insulator (SOI) complementary metal oxide semiconductor (CMOS) process. The testing was conducted using test vehicles supplied by directly by IBM.

  2. The PUMA test program and data analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Han, J.T.; Morrison, D.L.

    1997-01-01

    The PUMA test program is sponsored by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission to provide data that are relevant to various Boiling Water Reactor phenomena. The author briefly describes the PUMA test program and facility, presents the objective of the program, provides data analysis for a large-break loss-of-coolant accident test, and compares the data with a RELAP5/MOD 3.1.2 calculation

  3. The watchdog role of risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reijen, G. van; Vinck, W.

    1983-01-01

    The reason why the risks of large-scale technology attract more attention lies in the fact that accidents would have more disastrous results and in the fact that it is probably more attractive to study the risks of some large projects than to do the same for a greater number of smaller projects. Within this presentation there will be some opening remarks on the Role of the Commission of the European Community with regard to accident prevention. The development of the concept of quantitative risks is dealt with. This development leads to a combinded of deterministic and probabilistic methods. The presentation concludes with some critical remarks on quantitative risk analysis and its use. (orig./HP) [de

  4. Implementing the Bayesian paradigm in risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aven, T.; Kvaloey, J.T.

    2002-01-01

    The Bayesian paradigm comprises a unified and consistent framework for analyzing and expressing risk. Yet, we see rather few examples of applications where the full Bayesian setting has been adopted with specifications of priors of unknown parameters. In this paper, we discuss some of the practical challenges of implementing Bayesian thinking and methods in risk analysis, emphasizing the introduction of probability models and parameters and associated uncertainty assessments. We conclude that there is a need for a pragmatic view in order to 'successfully' apply the Bayesian approach, such that we can do the assignments of some of the probabilities without adopting the somewhat sophisticated procedure of specifying prior distributions of parameters. A simple risk analysis example is presented to illustrate ideas

  5. Risk-informed inservice test activities at the NRC

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fischer, D.; Cheok, M.; Hsia, A.

    1996-12-01

    The operational readiness of certain safety-related components is vital to the safe operation of nuclear power plants. Inservice testing (IST) is one of the mechanisms used by licensees to ensure this readiness. In the past, the type and frequency of IST have been based on the collective best judgment of the NRC and industry in an ASME Code consensus process and NRC rulemaking process. Furthermore, IST requirements have not explicitly considered unique component and system designs and contribution to overall plant risk. Because of the general nature of ASME Code test requirements and non-reliance on risk estimates, current IST requirements may not adequately emphasize testing those components that are most important to safety and may overly emphasize testing of less safety significant components. Nuclear power plant licensees are currently interested in optimizing testing by applying resources in more safety significant areas and, where appropriate, reducing measures in less safety-significant areas. They are interested in maintaining system availability and reducing overall maintenance costs in ways that do not adversely affect safety. The NRC has been interested in using probabilistic, as an adjunct to deterministic, techniques to help define the scope, type and frequency of IST. The development of risk-informed IST programs has the potential to optimize the use of NRC and industry resources without adverse affect on safety.

  6. Risk-informed inservice test activities at the NRC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fischer, D.; Cheok, M.; Hsia, A.

    1996-01-01

    The operational readiness of certain safety-related components is vital to the safe operation of nuclear power plants. Inservice testing (IST) is one of the mechanisms used by licensees to ensure this readiness. In the past, the type and frequency of IST have been based on the collective best judgment of the NRC and industry in an ASME Code consensus process and NRC rulemaking process. Furthermore, IST requirements have not explicitly considered unique component and system designs and contribution to overall plant risk. Because of the general nature of ASME Code test requirements and non-reliance on risk estimates, current IST requirements may not adequately emphasize testing those components that are most important to safety and may overly emphasize testing of less safety significant components. Nuclear power plant licensees are currently interested in optimizing testing by applying resources in more safety significant areas and, where appropriate, reducing measures in less safety-significant areas. They are interested in maintaining system availability and reducing overall maintenance costs in ways that do not adversely affect safety. The NRC has been interested in using probabilistic, as an adjunct to deterministic, techniques to help define the scope, type and frequency of IST. The development of risk-informed IST programs has the potential to optimize the use of NRC and industry resources without adverse affect on safety

  7. Game Theoretic Risk Analysis of Security Threats

    CERN Document Server

    Bier, Vicki M

    2008-01-01

    Introduces reliability and risk analysis in the face of threats by intelligent agents. This book covers applications to networks, including problems in both telecommunications and transportation. It provides a set of tools for applying game theory TO reliability problems in the presence of intentional, intelligent threats

  8. Economic impact assessment in pest risk analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Soliman, T.A.A.; Mourits, M.C.M.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.; Werf, van der W.

    2010-01-01

    According to international treaties, phytosanitary measures against introduction and spread of invasive plant pests must be justified by a science-based pest risk analysis (PRA). Part of the PRA consists of an assessment of potential economic consequences. This paper evaluates the main available

  9. Perceptions regarding genetic testing in populations at risk for nephropathy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freedman, Barry I; Fletcher, Alison J; Sanghani, Vivek R; Spainhour, Mitzie; Graham, Angelina W; Russell, Gregory B; Cooke Bailey, Jessica N; Iltis, Ana S; King, Nancy M P

    2013-01-01

    Population ancestry-based differences exist in genetic risk for many kidney diseases. Substantial debate remains regarding returning genetic test results to participants. African-Americans (AAs) and European-Americans (EAs) at risk for end-stage kidney disease were queried for views on the value and use of genetic testing in research. A standardized survey regarding attitudes toward genetic testing was administered to 130 individuals (64 AA, 66 EA) with first-degree relatives on dialysis. Fisher's exact test was used to assess differences in participant attitudes between population groups. Mean (SD) age of surveyed AAs and EAs was 45.5 (12.8) and 50.5 (14.4) years, respectively (p = 0.04), with similar familial relationships (p = 0.22). AAs and EAs wished to know their test results if risk could be: (1) reduced by diet or exercise (100 and 98%, p = 0.99); (2) reduced by medical treatment (100 and 98%, p = 0.99), or (3) if no treatments were available (90 and 82%, p = 0.21). If informed they lacked a disease susceptibility variant, 87% of AAs and 88% of EAs would be extremely or pretty likely to inform family members (p = 0.84). If informed they had a disease susceptibility variant, 92% of AAs and 89% of EAs would be extremely or pretty likely to inform their family (p = 0.43). Attitudes toward obtaining and using genetic test results for disease in research contexts were similar in AAs and EAs at risk for end-stage kidney disease. A substantial majority would want information regardless of available treatments and would share the information with the family. These results have important implications for patient care, study design and the informed consent process. © 2013 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  10. Summary of CPAS EDU Testing Analysis Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romero, Leah M.; Bledsoe, Kristin J.; Davidson, John.; Engert, Meagan E.; Fraire, Usbaldo, Jr.; Galaviz, Fernando S.; Galvin, Patrick J.; Ray, Eric S.; Varela, Jose

    2015-01-01

    The Orion program's Capsule Parachute Assembly System (CPAS) project is currently conducting its third generation of testing, the Engineering Development Unit (EDU) series. This series utilizes two test articles, a dart-shaped Parachute Compartment Drop Test Vehicle (PCDTV) and capsule-shaped Parachute Test Vehicle (PTV), both of which include a full size, flight-like parachute system and require a pallet delivery system for aircraft extraction. To date, 15 tests have been completed, including six with PCDTVs and nine with PTVs. Two of the PTV tests included the Forward Bay Cover (FBC) provided by Lockheed Martin. Advancements in modeling techniques applicable to parachute fly-out, vehicle rate of descent, torque, and load train, also occurred during the EDU testing series. An upgrade from a composite to an independent parachute simulation allowed parachute modeling at a higher level of fidelity than during previous generations. The complexity of separating the test vehicles from their pallet delivery systems necessitated the use the Automatic Dynamic Analysis of Mechanical Systems (ADAMS) simulator for modeling mated vehicle aircraft extraction and separation. This paper gives an overview of each EDU test and summarizes the development of CPAS analysis tools and techniques during EDU testing.

  11. Direct-to-consumer testing: more risks than opportunities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lippi, G; Favaloro, E J; Plebani, M

    2011-12-01

    As a result of incessant genetic discoveries and remarkable technological advancements, the availability and the consequent consumer's request for genetic testing are growing exponentially, leading to the development of a 'parallel' market, i.e. the direct-to-consumer (DTC) testing, also known as 'direct access testing' (DAT). Analogous to the traditional laboratory diagnostics, drawbacks of DTC testing might arise from any step characterising the total testing process, and include poor control of both appropriateness and preanalytical requirements, potential operation outside national or international regulation for in vitro diagnostic testing, little evidence of quality as well as the risk of transfer of genetic materials from the companies to other entities. Another important issue is the test panels offered to consumers, which are often based on preliminary, speculative or unsupported scientific information. Finally, the potential of this type of testing to generate anxiety or false reassurance should also be carefully considered. Although DTC testing carries some theoretical advantages (e.g. greater consumer autonomy and empowerment), solid clinical studies and costs vs. benefit analyses are needed to definitely establish whether DTC testing might be effective for decreasing the burden of diseases, delay their onset or modify their progression and therefore the clinical outcome. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  12. Risk-based configuration control system: Analysis and approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Lofgren, E.V.; Vesely, W.E.

    1990-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of risks associated with component outage configurations during power operation of a nuclear power plant and discusses approaches and strategies for developing a risk-based configuration control system. A configuration, as used here, is a set of component states. The objective of risk-based configuration control is to detect and control plant configurations using a risk-perspective. The configuration contributions to core-melt frequency and core-melt probability are studied for two plants. Large core-melt frequency can be caused by configurations and there are a number of such configurations that are not currently controlled by technical specifications. However, the expected frequency of occurrence of the impacting configurations is small and the actual core-melt probability contributions are also generally small. Effective strategies and criteria for controlling configuration risks are presented. Such control strategies take into consideration the risks associated with configurations, the nature and characteristics of the configuration risks, and also the practical considerations such as adequate repair times and/or options to transfer to low risk configurations. Alternative types of criteria are discussed that are not overly restrictive to result in unnecessary plant shutdown, but rather motivates effective test and maintenance practices that control risk-significant configurations to allow continued operation with an adequate margin to meet challenges to safety

  13. Risk-based configuration control system: Analysis and approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Vesely, W.E.; Kim, I.S.; Lofgren, E.V.

    1989-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of risks associated with component outage configurations during power operation of a nuclear power plant and discusses approaches and strategies for developing a risk-based configuration control system. A configuration, as used here, is a set of component states. The objective of risk-based configuration control is to detect and control plant configurations using a risk-perspective. The configuration contributions to core-melt frequency and core-melt probability are studied for two plants. Large core-melt frequency can be caused by configurations and there are a number of such configurations that are not currently controlled by technical specifications. However, the expected frequency of occurrence of the impacting configurations is small and the actual core-melt probability contributions are also generally small. Effective strategies and criteria for controlling configuration risks are presented. Such control strategies take into consideration the risks associated with configurations, the nature and characteristics of the configuration risks, and also the practical considerations such as adequate repair times and/or options to transfer to low risk configurations. Alternative types of criteria are discussed that are not overly restrictive to result in unnecessary plant shutdown, but rather motivates effective tests and maintenance practices that control; risk-significant configurations to allow continued operation with an adequate margin to meet challenges to safety. 3 refs., 7 figs., 2 tabs

  14. Ontology-based specification, identification and analysis of perioperative risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uciteli, Alexandr; Neumann, Juliane; Tahar, Kais; Saleh, Kutaiba; Stucke, Stephan; Faulbrück-Röhr, Sebastian; Kaeding, André; Specht, Martin; Schmidt, Tobias; Neumuth, Thomas; Besting, Andreas; Stegemann, Dominik; Portheine, Frank; Herre, Heinrich

    2017-09-06

    Medical personnel in hospitals often works under great physical and mental strain. In medical decision-making, errors can never be completely ruled out. Several studies have shown that between 50 and 60% of adverse events could have been avoided through better organization, more attention or more effective security procedures. Critical situations especially arise during interdisciplinary collaboration and the use of complex medical technology, for example during surgical interventions and in perioperative settings (the period of time before, during and after surgical intervention). In this paper, we present an ontology and an ontology-based software system, which can identify risks across medical processes and supports the avoidance of errors in particular in the perioperative setting. We developed a practicable definition of the risk notion, which is easily understandable by the medical staff and is usable for the software tools. Based on this definition, we developed a Risk Identification Ontology (RIO) and used it for the specification and the identification of perioperative risks. An agent system was developed, which gathers risk-relevant data during the whole perioperative treatment process from various sources and provides it for risk identification and analysis in a centralized fashion. The results of such an analysis are provided to the medical personnel in form of context-sensitive hints and alerts. For the identification of the ontologically specified risks, we developed an ontology-based software module, called Ontology-based Risk Detector (OntoRiDe). About 20 risks relating to cochlear implantation (CI) have already been implemented. Comprehensive testing has indicated the correctness of the data acquisition, risk identification and analysis components, as well as the web-based visualization of results.

  15. Supplemental Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment - Hydrotreater

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lowry, Peter P. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wagner, Katie A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-04-01

    A supplemental hazard analysis was conducted and quantitative risk assessment performed in response to an independent review comment received by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) from the U.S. Department of Energy Pacific Northwest Field Office (PNSO) against the Hydrotreater/Distillation Column Hazard Analysis Report issued in April 2013. The supplemental analysis used the hazardous conditions documented by the previous April 2013 report as a basis. The conditions were screened and grouped for the purpose of identifying whether additional prudent, practical hazard controls could be identified, using a quantitative risk evaluation to assess the adequacy of the controls and establish a lower level of concern for the likelihood of potential serious accidents. Calculations were performed to support conclusions where necessary.

  16. Multivariate survival analysis and competing risks

    CERN Document Server

    Crowder, Martin J

    2012-01-01

    Multivariate Survival Analysis and Competing Risks introduces univariate survival analysis and extends it to the multivariate case. It covers competing risks and counting processes and provides many real-world examples, exercises, and R code. The text discusses survival data, survival distributions, frailty models, parametric methods, multivariate data and distributions, copulas, continuous failure, parametric likelihood inference, and non- and semi-parametric methods. There are many books covering survival analysis, but very few that cover the multivariate case in any depth. Written for a graduate-level audience in statistics/biostatistics, this book includes practical exercises and R code for the examples. The author is renowned for his clear writing style, and this book continues that trend. It is an excellent reference for graduate students and researchers looking for grounding in this burgeoning field of research.

  17. Cernavoda NPP risk - Based test and maintenance planning - Methodology development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Georgescu, G.; Popa, P.; Petrescu, A.; Naum, M.; Gutu, M.

    1997-01-01

    The Cernavoda Power Plant starts the commercial operation in November 1996. During operation of the nuclear power plant, several mandatory tests and maintenance are performed on stand-by safety system components to ensure their availability in case of accident. The basic purpose of such activities is the early detection of any failure and degradation, and timely correction of deteriorations. Because of the large number of such activities, emphasis on plant safety and allocation of resources becomes difficult. The probabilistic model and methodology can be effectively used to obtain the risk significance of these activities so that the resources are directed to the most important areas. The proposed Research Contract activity is strongly connected with other safety related areas under development. Since, the Cernavoda Probabilistic Safety Evaluation Level 1 PSA Study (CPSE) was performed and now the study is revised taking into account the as-built information, it is recommended to implement into the model the necessary modeling features to support further PSA application, especially related to Test and Maintenance optimization. Methods need to be developed in order to apply the PSA model including risk information together with other needed information for Test and Maintenance optimization. Also, in parallel with the CPSE study updating, the software interface for the PSA model is under development (Risk Monitor Software class), methods and models needing to be developed for the purpose of using it for qualified monitoring of Test and Maintenance Strategy efficiency. Similar, the Data Collection System need to be appropriate for the purpose of an ongoing implementation of a risk - based Test and Maintenance Strategy. (author). 4 refs, 1 fig

  18. Risk-based management system development for the Advanced Test Reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davis, M.L.; Eide, S.A.

    1990-01-01

    A Risk-Based Management System (RBMS) is being developed to facilitate the use of the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) probabilistic risk assessment to support ATR operation. Most ATR RBMS questions can best be answered using the System Analysis and Risk Assessment System (SARA) developed at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory. However, some applications may require employment of the other four codes used to develop and report the PRA. These four codes include the Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS), SETS, ETA-II, and the Nuclear Computerized Library for Assessing Reactor Reliability (NUCLARR). The ATR RBMS will evolve over three years, and will include the results of the Level 3 and external events analysis

  19. Risk and safety analysis of nuclear systems

    CERN Document Server

    Lee, John C

    2011-01-01

    The book has been developed in conjunction with NERS 462, a course offered every year to seniors and graduate students in the University of Michigan NERS program. The first half of the book covers the principles of risk analysis, the techniques used to develop and update a reliability data base, the reliability of multi-component systems, Markov methods used to analyze the unavailability of systems with repairs, fault trees and event trees used in probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs), and failure modes of systems. All of this material is general enough that it could be used in non-nuclear a

  20. Terminological Ontologies for Risk and Vulnerability Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Bodil Nistrup; Erdman Thomsen, Hanne

    2014-01-01

    Risk and vulnerability analyses are an important preliminary stage in civil contingency planning. The Danish Emergency Management Agency has developed a generic model and a set of tools that may be used in the preparedness planning, i.e. for identifying and describing society’s critical functions......, for formulating threat scenarios and for assessing consequences. Terminological ontologies, which are systems of domain specific concepts comprising concept relations and characteristics, are useful, both when describing the central concepts of risk and vulnerability analysis (meta concepts), and for further...

  1. Gambler Risk Perception: A Mental Model and Grounded Theory Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spurrier, Michael; Blaszczynski, Alexander; Rhodes, Paul

    2015-09-01

    Few studies have investigated how gamblers perceive risk or the role of risk perception in disordered gambling. The purpose of the current study therefore was to obtain data on lay gamblers' beliefs on these variables and their effects on decision-making, behaviour, and disordered gambling aetiology. Fifteen regular lay gamblers (non-problem/low risk, moderate risk and problem gamblers) completed a semi-structured interview following mental models and grounded theory methodologies. Gambler interview data was compared to an expert 'map' of risk-perception, to identify comparative gaps or differences associated with harmful or safe gambling. Systematic overlapping processes of data gathering and analysis were used to iteratively extend, saturate, test for exception, and verify concepts and themes emerging from the data. The preliminary findings suggested that gambler accounts supported the presence of expert conceptual constructs, and to some degree the role of risk perception in protecting against or increasing vulnerability to harm and disordered gambling. Gambler accounts of causality, meaning, motivation, and strategy were highly idiosyncratic, and often contained content inconsistent with measures of disordered gambling. Disordered gambling appears heavily influenced by relative underestimation of risk and overvaluation of gambling, based on explicit and implicit analysis, and deliberate, innate, contextual, and learned processing evaluations and biases.

  2. An Analysis of Rocket Propulsion Testing Costs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramirez-Pagan, Carmen P.; Rahman, Shamim A.

    2009-01-01

    The primary mission at NASA Stennis Space Center (SSC) is rocket propulsion testing. Such testing is generally performed within two arenas: (1) Production testing for certification and acceptance, and (2) Developmental testing for prototype or experimental purposes. The customer base consists of NASA programs, DOD programs, and commercial programs. Resources in place to perform on-site testing include both civil servants and contractor personnel, hardware and software including data acquisition and control, and 6 test stands with a total of 14 test positions/cells. For several business reasons there is the need to augment understanding of the test costs for all the various types of test campaigns. Historical propulsion test data was evaluated and analyzed in many different ways with the intent to find any correlation or statistics that could help produce more reliable and accurate cost estimates and projections. The analytical efforts included timeline trends, statistical curve fitting, average cost per test, cost per test second, test cost timeline, and test cost envelopes. Further, the analytical effort includes examining the test cost from the perspective of thrust level and test article characteristics. Some of the analytical approaches did not produce evidence strong enough for further analysis. Some other analytical approaches yield promising results and are candidates for further development and focused study. Information was organized for into its elements: a Project Profile, Test Cost Timeline, and Cost Envelope. The Project Profile is a snap shot of the project life cycle on a timeline fashion, which includes various statistical analyses. The Test Cost Timeline shows the cumulative average test cost, for each project, at each month where there was test activity. The Test Cost Envelope shows a range of cost for a given number of test(s). The supporting information upon which this study was performed came from diverse sources and thus it was necessary to

  3. Market risk stress testing for internationally active financial institutions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marković Petar

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper develops a comprehensive framework for market risk stress testing in internationally active financial institutions. We begin by defining the scope and type of the stress test and explaining how to select risk factors and the stress time horizon. We then address challenges related to data gathering, followed by in-depth discussion of techniques for developing realistic shock scenarios. Next the process of shock application to a particular portfolio is described, followed by determination of portfolio profit and loss. We conclude by briefly discussing the issue of assigning probability to stress scenarios. We illustrate the framework by considering the development of a ‘worst case’ scenario using global financial market data from Thomson Reuters Datastream.

  4. Risk factor analysis of equine strongyle resistance to anthelmintics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Sallé

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Intestinal strongyles are the most problematic endoparasites of equids as a result of their wide distribution and the spread of resistant isolates throughout the world. While abundant literature can be found on the extent of anthelmintic resistance across continents, empirical knowledge about associated risk factors is missing. This study brought together results from anthelmintic efficacy testing and risk factor analysis to provide evidence-based guidelines in the field. It involved 688 horses from 39 French horse farms and riding schools to both estimate Faecal Egg Count Reduction (FECR after anthelmintic treatment and to interview farm and riding school managers about their practices. Risk factors associated with reduced anthelmintic efficacy in equine strongyles were estimated across drugs using a marginal modelling approach. Results demonstrated ivermectin efficacy (96.3% ± 14.5% FECR, the inefficacy of fenbendazole (42.8% ± 33.4% FECR and an intermediate profile for pyrantel (90.3% ± 19.6% FECR. Risk factor analysis provided support to advocate for FEC-based treatment regimens combined with individual anthelmintic dosage and the enforcement of tighter biosecurity around horse introduction. The combination of these measures resulted in a decreased risk of drug resistance (relative risk of 0.57, p = 0.02. Premises falling under this typology also relied more on their veterinarians suggesting practitionners play an important role in the sustainability of anthelmintic usage. Similarly, drug resistance risk was halved in premises with frequent pasture rotation and with stocking rate below five horses/ha (relative risk of 0.53, p < 0.01. This is the first empirical risk factor analysis for anthelmintic resistance in equids. Our findings should guide the implementation of more sustained strongyle management in the field. Keywords: Horse, Nematode, Anthelmintic resistance, Strongyle, Cyathostomin

  5. Risk analysis for earth dam overtopping

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mo Chongxun

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a model of overtopping risk under the joint effects of floods and wind waves, which is based on risk analysis theory and takes into account the uncertainties of floods, wind waves, reservoir capacity and discharge capacity of the spillway, is proposed and applied to the Chengbihe Reservoir in Baise City in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. The simulated results indicate that the flood control limiting level can be raised by 0.40 m under the condition that the reservoir overtopping risk is controlled within a mean variance of 5×10−6. As a result, the reservoir storage will increase to 16 million m3 and electrical energy generation and other functions of the reservoir will also increase greatly.

  6. Investment appraisal using quantitative risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johansson, Henrik

    2002-07-01

    Investment appraisal concerned with investments in fire safety systems is discussed. Particular attention is directed at evaluating, in terms of the Bayesian decision theory, the risk reduction that investment in a fire safety system involves. It is shown how the monetary value of the change from a building design without any specific fire protection system to one including such a system can be estimated by use of quantitative risk analysis, the results of which are expressed in terms of a Risk-adjusted net present value. This represents the intrinsic monetary value of investing in the fire safety system. The method suggested is exemplified by a case study performed in an Avesta Sheffield factory.

  7. Risk informed in-service inspection and testing in Spain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bros, Juan; Marcelles, Ignacio

    2002-01-01

    The Spanish nuclear regulatory authority, the Consejo de Seguridad Nuclear (CSN), requires the use of codes and standards in force in the country of origin of the plant technology. For this reason, the in-service inspection and testing programs applied at Spanish nuclear power plants basically adhere to the requirements of the ASME XI and ASME OM Codes. It is not surprising that when the earliest developments aimed at drawing up risk informed inservice inspection and testing programs were initiated within the framework of ASME, the Spanish industry should follows such developments very closely. In fact, persons within the Spanish nuclear industry joined different ASME committees involved in the development and approval of the various code cases encompassing these developments. Developments specific to the Spanish nuclear power plants were initiated at a time when the aforementioned reference documentation was in a very advanced stage of development/approval. Two clearly differentiated lines of work got under way: On the one hand, and as regards risk informed in-service testing programs, the American standards were used as the sole reference. In the case of risk informed in-service inspection programs, the Spanish nuclear power plant-owning utilities and the Consejo de Seguridad Nuclear decided to draw up a Spanish guideline that, although using the ASME developments as a reference, would have its own specific characteristics. In relation to the above, and referring to the chronology of the events, the activities performed to date in Spain are described

  8. Choreographer Pre-Testing Code Analysis and Operational Testing.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fritz, David J. [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Harrison, Christopher B. [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Perr, C. W. [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Hurd, Steven A [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2014-07-01

    Choreographer is a "moving target defense system", designed to protect against attacks aimed at IP addresses without corresponding domain name system (DNS) lookups. It coordinates actions between a DNS server and a Network Address Translation (NAT) device to regularly change which publicly available IP addresses' traffic will be routed to the protected device versus routed to a honeypot. More details about how Choreographer operates can be found in Section 2: Introducing Choreographer. Operational considerations for the successful deployment of Choreographer can be found in Section 3. The Testing & Evaluation (T&E) for Choreographer involved 3 phases: Pre-testing, Code Analysis, and Operational Testing. Pre-testing, described in Section 4, involved installing and configuring an instance of Choreographer and verifying it would operate as expected for a simple use case. Our findings were that it was simple and straightforward to prepare a system for a Choreographer installation as well as configure Choreographer to work in a representative environment. Code Analysis, described in Section 5, consisted of running a static code analyzer (HP Fortify) and conducting dynamic analysis tests using the Valgrind instrumentation framework. Choreographer performed well, such that only a few errors that might possibly be problematic in a given operating situation were identified. Operational Testing, described in Section 6, involved operating Choreographer in a representative environment created through EmulyticsTM . Depending upon the amount of server resources dedicated to Choreographer vis-á-vis the amount of client traffic handled, Choreographer had varying degrees of operational success. In an environment with a poorly resourced Choreographer server and as few as 50-100 clients, Choreographer failed to properly route traffic over half the time. Yet, with a well-resourced server, Choreographer handled over 1000 clients without missrouting. Choreographer

  9. Risk analysis as a decision tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yadigaroglu, G.; Chakraborty, S.

    1985-01-01

    From 1983 - 1985 a lecture series entitled ''Risk-benefit analysis'' was held at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH), Zurich, in cooperation with the Central Department for the Safety of Nuclear Installations of the Swiss Federal Agency of Energy Economy. In that setting the value of risk-oriented evaluation models as a decision tool in safety questions was discussed on a broad basis. Experts of international reputation from the Federal Republic of Germany, France, Canada, the United States and Switzerland have contributed to report in this joint volume on the uses of such models. Following an introductory synopsis on risk analysis and risk assessment the book deals with practical examples in the fields of medicine, nuclear power, chemistry, transport and civil engineering. Particular attention is paid to the dialogue between analysts and decision makers taking into account the economic-technical aspects and social values. The recent chemical disaster in the Indian city of Bhopal again signals the necessity of such analyses. All the lectures were recorded individually. (orig./HP) [de

  10. Quantitative risk analysis preoperational of gas pipeline

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Manfredi, Carlos; Bispo, Gustavo G.; Esteves, Alvaro [Gie S.A., Buenos Aires (Argentina)

    2009-07-01

    The purpose of this analysis is to predict how it can be affected the individual risk and the public's general security due to the operation of a gas pipeline. In case that the single or social risks are considered intolerable, compared with the international standards, to be recommended measures of mitigation of the risk associated to the operation until levels that can be considered compatible with the best practices in the industry. The quantitative risk analysis calculates the probability of occurrence of an event based on the frequency of occurrence of the same one and it requires a complex mathematical treatment. The present work has as objective to develop a calculation methodology based on the previously mentioned publication. This calculation methodology is centered in defining the frequencies of occurrence of events, according to representative database of each case in study. Besides, it settles down the consequences particularly according to the considerations of each area and the different possibilities of interferences with the gas pipeline in study. For each one of the interferences a typical curve of ignition probabilities is developed in function from the distance to the pipe. (author)

  11. Risk analysis in oil spill response planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chernoplekov, A.N.; Alexandrov, A.A.

    2005-01-01

    Tiered response is a basic approach to emergency plans, including oil spill response (OSR). This paper delineates a huge set of accidental scenarios within a certain tier of response generated by a computer during risk assessment. Parameters such as the amount of oil spilled, duration of discharge and types of losses should be provided in OSR scenarios. Examples of applications include offshore installations, sub sea or onshore pipelines, and localized onshore facilities. The paper demonstrates how to use risk analysis results for delineating all likely spills into groups that need a specific tier response. The best world practices and Russian regulatory approaches were outlined and compared. Corresponding algorithms were developed and their application in pipelines was presented. The algorithm combines expert's skills and spill trajectory modeling with the net environmental benefit analysis principle into the incident specific emergency response planning. 9 refs., 13 tabs., 2 figs

  12. Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russell, K.D.; McKay, M.K.; Sattison, M.B.; Skinner, N.L.; Wood, S.T.; Rasmuson, D.M.

    1992-01-01

    The Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) is a state-of-the-art, microcomputer-based probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model development and analysis tool to address key nuclear plant safety issues. IRRAS is an integrated software tool that gives the user the ability to create and analyze fault trees and accident sequences using a microcomputer. This program provides functions that range from graphical fault tree construction to cut set generation and quantification. Version 1.0 of the IRRAS program was released in February of 1987. Since that time, many user comments and enhancements have been incorporated into the program providing a much more powerful and user-friendly system. This version has been designated IRRAS 4.0 and is the subject of this Reference Manual. Version 4.0 of IRRAS provides the same capabilities as Version 1.0 and adds a relational data base facility for managing the data, improved functionality, and improved algorithm performance

  13. Zero risk fuel fabrication: a systems analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1979-01-01

    Zero risk is a concept used to ensure that system requirements are developed through a systems approach such that the choice(s) among alternatives represents the balanced viewpoints of performance, achievability and risk. Requirements to ensure characteristics such as stringent accountability, low personnel exposure and etc. are needed to guide the development of component and subsystems for future LMFBR fuel supply systems. To establish a consistent and objective set of requirements, RF and M-TMC has initiated a systems requirements analysis activity. This activity pivots on judgement and experience provided by a Task Force representing industrial companies engaged in fuel fabrication in licensed facilities. The Task Force members are listed in Appendix A. Input developed by this group is presented as a starting point for the systems requirements analysis

  14. Risk Analysis of Accounting Information System Infrastructure

    OpenAIRE

    MIHALACHE, Arsenie-Samoil

    2011-01-01

    National economy and security are fully dependent on information technology and infrastructure. At the core of the information infrastructure society relies on, we have the Internet, a system designed initially as a scientists’ forum for unclassified research. The use of communication networks and systems may lead to hazardous situations that generate undesirable effects such as communication systems breakdown, loss of data or taking the wrong decisions. The paper studies the risk analysis of...

  15. Risk and value analysis of SETI

    Science.gov (United States)

    Billingham, J.

    1990-01-01

    This paper attempts to apply a traditional risk and value analysis to the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence--SETI. In view of the difficulties of assessing the probability of success, a comparison is made between SETI and a previous search for extraterrestrial life, the biological component of Project Viking. Our application of simple Utility Theory, given some reasonable assumptions, suggests that SETI is at least as worthwhile as the biological experiment on Viking.

  16. Would you test for 5000 Shillings? HIV risk and willingness to accept HIV testing in Tanzania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ostermann, Jan; Brown, Derek S; Mühlbacher, Axel; Njau, Bernard; Thielman, Nathan

    2015-12-01

    Despite substantial public health efforts to increase HIV testing, testing rates have plateaued in many countries and rates of repeat testing for those with ongoing risk are low. To inform policies aimed at increasing uptake of HIV testing, we identified characteristics associated with individuals' willingness-to-accept (WTA) an HIV test in a general population sample and among two high-risk populations in Moshi, Tanzania. In total, 721 individuals, including randomly selected community members (N = 402), female barworkers (N = 135), and male Kilimanjaro mountain porters (N = 184), were asked in a double-bounded contingent valuation format if they would test for HIV in exchange for 2000, 5000 or 10,000 Shillings (approximately $1.30, $3.20, and $6.40, respectively). The study was conducted between September 2012 and February 2013. More than one quarter of participants (196; 27 %) stated they would be willing to test for Tanzania Shilling (TSH) 2000, whereas one in seven (98; 13.6 %) required more than TSH 10,000. The average WTA estimate was TSH 4564 (95 % Confidence Interval: TSH 4201 to 4927). Significant variation in WTA estimates by gender, HIV risk factors and other characteristics plausibly reflects variation in individuals' valuations of benefits of and barriers to testing. WTA estimates were higher among males than females. Among males, WTA was nearly one-third lower for those who reported symptoms of HIV than those who did not. Among females, WTA estimates varied with respondents' education, own and partners' HIV testing history, and lifetime reports of transactional sex. For both genders, the most significant association was observed with respondents' perception of the accuracy of the HIV test; those believing HIV tests to be completely accurate were willing to test for approximately one third less than their counterparts. The mean WTA estimates identified in this study suggest that within the study population, incentivized universal HIV

  17. Applied decision analysis and risk evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferse, W.; Kruber, S.

    1995-01-01

    During 1994 the workgroup 'Applied Decision Analysis and Risk Evaluation; continued the work on the knowledge based decision support system XUMA-GEFA for the evaluation of the hazard potential of contaminated sites. Additionally a new research direction was started which aims at the support of a later stage of the treatment of contaminated sites: The clean-up decision. For the support of decisions arising at this stage, the methods of decision analysis will be used. Computational aids for evaluation and decision support were implemented and a case study at a waste disposal site in Saxony which turns out to be a danger for the surrounding groundwater ressource was initiated. (orig.)

  18. LANDSAFE: LANDING SITE RISK ANALYSIS SOFTWARE FRAMEWORK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Schmidt

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The European Space Agency (ESA is planning a Lunar Lander mission in the 2018 timeframe that will demonstrate precise soft landing at the polar regions of the Moon. To ensure a safe and successful landing a careful risk analysis has to be carried out. This is comprised of identifying favorable target areas and evaluating the surface conditions in these areas. Features like craters, boulders, steep slopes, rough surfaces and shadow areas have to be identified in order to assess the risk associated to a landing site in terms of a successful touchdown and subsequent surface operation of the lander. In addition, global illumination conditions at the landing site have to be simulated and analyzed. The Landing Site Risk Analysis software framework (LandSAfe is a system for the analysis, selection and certification of safe landing sites on the lunar surface. LandSAfe generates several data products including high resolution digital terrain models (DTMs, hazard maps, illumination maps, temperature maps and surface reflectance maps which assist the user in evaluating potential landing site candidates. This paper presents the LandSAfe system and describes the methods and products of the different modules. For one candidate landing site on the rim of Shackleton crater at the south pole of the Moon a high resolution DTM is showcased.

  19. Probabilistic risk analysis of Angra-1 reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spivak, R.C.; Collussi, I.; Silva, M.C. da; Onusic Junior, J.

    1986-01-01

    The first phase of probabilistic study for safety analysis and operational analysis of Angra-1 reactor is presented. The study objectives and uses are: to support decisions about safety problems; to identify operational and/or project failures; to amplify operator qualification tests to include accidents in addition to project base; to provide informations to be used in development and/or review of operation procedures in emergency, test and maintenance procedures; to obtain experience for data collection about abnormal accurences; utilization of study results for training operators; and training of evaluation and reliability techniques for the personnel of CNEN and FURNAS. (M.C.K.) [pt

  20. Documented tuberculin skin testing among infliximab users following a multi-modal risk communication interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shatin, Deborah; Rawson, Nigel S B; Curtis, Jeffrey R; Braun, M Miles; Martin, Carolyn K; Moreland, Larry W; Becker, Angela F; Patkar, Nivedita M; Allison, Jeroan J; Saag, Kenneth G

    2006-01-01

    Following its licensure, tuberculosis (TB) was reported as a potential adverse effect of infliximab. Subsequently, the product circular was changed to recommend tuberculin skin testing before patients received infliximab, which was reinforced by several risk communication efforts. The aim of this study was to evaluate patterns and predictors of documented tuberculin skin testing in patients before and after manufacturer, federal, and academic risk communications. Patients administered infliximab were identified from 11 health plans located throughout the United States, and claims data were examined to determine whether the patients had received a tuberculin skin test. Patients were divided into three cohorts depending on the timing of their first infliximab treatment in relation to the risk communication efforts. The overall tuberculin skin testing rate doubled from 15.4% in the first cohort to 30.9% in the last cohort, while the rate of pre-infliximab treatment testing increased from 0 to 27.7% (Chi-squared test for trend, p skin testing rates were significantly higher in women, those with a diagnosis of rheumatoid or psoriatic arthritis, and those with a rheumatologist as prescriber. After multivariable analysis, only rheumatologist remained significantly associated with tuberculin skin testing. Although the tuberculin skin testing rate was relatively low overall, tuberculin skin testing doubled over 30 months of ongoing risk communication efforts and under ascertainment likely occurred. We also found variation in the tuberculin skin testing rate associated with physician specialty. This study demonstrates a significant change in patient care following risk communication efforts. (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  1. Quantitative risk analysis of a space shuttle subsystem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frank, M.V.

    1989-01-01

    This paper reports that in an attempt to investigate methods for risk management other than qualitative analysis techniques, NASA has funded pilot study quantitative risk analyses for space shuttle subsystems. The authors performed one such study of two shuttle subsystems with McDonnell Douglas Astronautics Company. The subsystems were the auxiliary power units (APU) on the orbiter, and the hydraulic power units on the solid rocket booster. The technology and results of the APU study are presented in this paper. Drawing from a rich in-flight database as well as from a wealth of tests and analyses, the study quantitatively assessed the risk of APU-initiated scenarios on the shuttle during all phases of a flight mission. Damage states of interest were loss of crew/vehicle, aborted mission, and launch scrub. A quantitative risk analysis approach to deciding on important items for risk management was contrasted with the current NASA failure mode and effects analysis/critical item list approach

  2. Safety analysis and risk assessment handbook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, V.L.; Colwell, R.G.; Dickey, R.L.

    1997-01-01

    This Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) provides guidance to the safety analyst at the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site (RFETS) in the preparation of safety analyses and risk assessments. Although the older guidance (the Rocky Flats Risk Assessment Guide) continues to be used for updating the Final Safety Analysis Reports developed in the mid-1980s, this new guidance is used with all new authorization basis documents. With the mission change at RFETS came the need to establish new authorization basis documents for its facilities, whose functions had changed. The methodology and databases for performing the evaluations that support the new authorization basis documents had to be standardized, to avoid the use of different approaches and/or databases for similar accidents in different facilities. This handbook presents this new standardized approach. The handbook begins with a discussion of the requirements of the different types of authorization basis documents and how to choose the one appropriate for the facility to be evaluated. It then walks the analyst through the process of identifying all the potential hazards in the facility, classifying them, and choosing the ones that need to be analyzed further. It then discusses the methods for evaluating accident initiation and progression and covers the basic steps in a safety analysis, including consequence and frequency binning and risk ranking. The handbook lays out standardized approaches for determining the source terms of the various accidents (including airborne release fractions, leakpath factors, etc.), the atmospheric dispersion factors appropriate for Rocky Flats, and the methods for radiological and chemical consequence assessments. The radiological assessments use a radiological open-quotes templateclose quotes, a spreadsheet that incorporates the standard values of parameters, whereas the chemical assessments use the standard codes ARCHIE and ALOHA

  3. Testing the Cuckoldry Risk Hypothesis of Partner Sexual Coercion in Community and Forensic Samples

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph A. Camilleri

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Evolutionary theory has informed the investigation of male sexual coercion but has seldom been applied to the analysis of sexual coercion within established couples. The cuckoldry risk hypothesis, that sexual coercion is a male tactic used to reduce the risk of extrapair paternity, was tested in two studies. In a community sample, indirect cues of infidelity predicted male propensity for sexual coaxing in the relationship, and direct cues predicted propensity for sexual coercion. In the forensic sample, we found that most partner rapists experienced cuckoldry risk prior to committing their offence and experienced more types of cuckoldry risk events than non-sexual partner assaulters. These findings suggest that cuckoldry risk influences male sexual coercion in established sexual relationships.

  4. Explaining behavior change after genetic testing: the problem of collinearity between test results and risk estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fanshawe, Thomas R; Prevost, A Toby; Roberts, J Scott; Green, Robert C; Armstrong, David; Marteau, Theresa M

    2008-09-01

    This paper explores whether and how the behavioral impact of genotype disclosure can be disentangled from the impact of numerical risk estimates generated by genetic tests. Secondary data analyses are presented from a randomized controlled trial of 162 first-degree relatives of Alzheimer's disease (AD) patients. Each participant received a lifetime risk estimate of AD. Control group estimates were based on age, gender, family history, and assumed epsilon4-negative apolipoprotein E (APOE) genotype; intervention group estimates were based upon the first three variables plus true APOE genotype, which was also disclosed. AD-specific self-reported behavior change (diet, exercise, and medication use) was assessed at 12 months. Behavior change was significantly more likely with increasing risk estimates, and also more likely, but not significantly so, in epsilon4-positive intervention group participants (53% changed behavior) than in control group participants (31%). Intervention group participants receiving epsilon4-negative genotype feedback (24% changed behavior) and control group participants had similar rates of behavior change and risk estimates, the latter allowing assessment of the independent effects of genotype disclosure. However, collinearity between risk estimates and epsilon4-positive genotypes, which engender high-risk estimates, prevented assessment of the independent effect of the disclosure of an epsilon4 genotype. Novel study designs are proposed to determine whether genotype disclosure has an impact upon behavior beyond that of numerical risk estimates.

  5. Managing industrial risk--having a tested and proven system to prevent and assess risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heller, Stephen

    2006-03-17

    Some relatively easy techniques exist to improve the risk picture/profile to aid in preventing losses. Today with the advent of computer system resources, focusing on specific aspects of risk through systematic scoring and comparison, the risk analysis can be relatively easy to achieve. Techniques like these demonstrate how working experience and common sense can be combined mathematically into a flexible risk management tool or risk model for analyzing risk. The risk assessment methodology provided by companies today is no longer the ideas and practices of one group or even one company. It is reflective of the practice of many companies, as well as the ideas and expertise of academia and government regulators. The use of multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) techniques for making critical decisions has been recognized for many years for a variety of purposes. In today's computer age, the easy accessing and user-friendly nature for using these techniques, makes them a favorable choice for use in the risk assessment environment. The new user of these methodologies should find many ideas directly applicable to his or her needs when approaching risk decision making. The user should find their ideas readily adapted, with slight modification, to accurately reflect a specific situation using MCDM techniques. This makes them an attractive feature for use in assessment and risk modeling. The main advantage of decision making techniques, such as MCDM, is that in the early stages of a risk assessment, accurate data on industrial risk, and failures are lacking. In most cases, it is still insufficient to perform a thorough risk assessment using purely statistical concepts. The practical advantages towards deviating from strict data-driven protocol seem to outweigh the drawbacks. Industry failure data often comes at a high cost when a loss occurs. We can benefit from this unfortunate acquisition of data through the continuous refining of our decisions by incorporating this new

  6. Thermal Analysis of Bending Under Tension Test

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ceron, Ermanno; Martins, Paulo A.F.; Bay, Niels

    2014-01-01

    during testing is similar to the one in the production tool. A universal sheet tribo-tester has been developed, which can run multiple tests automatically from coil. This allows emulating the temperature increase as in production. The present work performs finite element analysis of the evolution......The tribological conditions in deep drawing can be simulated in the Bending Under Tension test to evaluate the performance of new lubricants, tool materials, etc. Deep drawing production with automatic handling runs normally at high rate. This implies considerable heating of the tools, which...... sometimes can cause lubricant film breakdown and galling. In order to replicate the production conditions in bending under tension testing it is thus important to control the tool/workpiece interface temperature. This can be done by pre-heating the tool, but it is essential that the interface temperature...

  7. Risk analysis of nuclear safeguards regulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al-Ayat, R.A.; Altman, W.D.; Judd, B.R.

    1982-06-01

    The Aggregated Systems Model (ASM), a probabilisitic risk analysis tool for nuclear safeguards, was applied to determine benefits and costs of proposed amendments to NRC regulations governing nuclear material control and accounting systems. The objective of the amendments was to improve the ability to detect insiders attempting to steal large quantities of special nuclear material (SNM). Insider threats range from likely events with minor consequences to unlikely events with catastrophic consequences. Moreover, establishing safeguards regulations is complicated by uncertainties in threats, safeguards performance, and consequences, and by the subjective judgments and difficult trade-offs between risks and safeguards costs. The ASM systematically incorporates these factors in a comprehensive, analytical framework. The ASM was used to evaluate the effectiveness of current safeguards and to quantify the risk of SNM theft. Various modifications designed to meet the objectives of the proposed amendments to reduce that risk were analyzed. Safeguards effectiveness was judged in terms of the probability of detecting and preventing theft, the expected time to detection, and the expected quantity of SNM diverted in a year. Data were gathered in tours and interviews at NRC-licensed facilities. The assessment at each facility was begun by carefully selecting scenarios representing the range of potential insider threats. A team of analysts and facility managers assigned probabilities for detection and prevention events in each scenario. Using the ASM we computed the measures of system effectiveness and identified cost-effective safeguards modifications that met the objectives of the proposed amendments

  8. AGROFOREST SYSTEM INVESTMENT ANALYSIS UNDER RISK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luiz Moreira Coelho Junior

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Agroforestry System is the ecological and economical interaction of the use of the land, with the combination ofagriculture, livestock and forest production, in temporary sequence and in a simultaneous way. The studies of investments in projectsassume the existence of risks and uncertainties. An alternative to reduce the risk in the forest investment is the association with theagricultural. This work analyzed the situations of risk of a system agroflorestal. Monte Carlo s method comes from the theory ofsimulations and stands out as a powerful and useful tool to provide a distribution of probabilities for the analysis of decision. A totalof 10,000 interactions of the Net Present Value (VPL, of Internal Rate of Return (TIR and of the Equivalent Periodic Benefit (BPEwere made in order to establish the probability distribution. The results presented 78.65% of chance of VPL being US$ 1,410.00;77.56% of chance of TIR being 36.36%, and; 75.39% of chance of BPE being US$ 309.70; the agroforestry system presented lowinvestment risk; and the livestock is the main product of the agrossilvopastoril system, followed by charcoal.

  9. Approach to uncertainty in risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rish, W.R.

    1988-08-01

    In the Fall of 1985 EPA's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) initiated a project to develop a formal approach to dealing with uncertainties encountered when estimating and evaluating risks to human health and the environment. Based on a literature review of modeling uncertainty, interviews with ORP technical and management staff, and input from experts on uncertainty analysis, a comprehensive approach was developed. This approach recognizes by design the constraints on budget, time, manpower, expertise, and availability of information often encountered in ''real world'' modeling. It is based on the observation that in practice risk modeling is usually done to support a decision process. As such, the approach focuses on how to frame a given risk modeling problem, how to use that framing to select an appropriate mixture of uncertainty analyses techniques, and how to integrate the techniques into an uncertainty assessment that effectively communicates important information and insight to decision-makers. The approach is presented in this report. Practical guidance on characterizing and analyzing uncertainties about model form and quantities and on effectively communicating uncertainty analysis results is included. Examples from actual applications are presented.

  10. Approach to uncertainty in risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rish, W.R.

    1988-08-01

    In the Fall of 1985 EPA's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) initiated a project to develop a formal approach to dealing with uncertainties encountered when estimating and evaluating risks to human health and the environment. Based on a literature review of modeling uncertainty, interviews with ORP technical and management staff, and input from experts on uncertainty analysis, a comprehensive approach was developed. This approach recognizes by design the constraints on budget, time, manpower, expertise, and availability of information often encountered in ''real world'' modeling. It is based on the observation that in practice risk modeling is usually done to support a decision process. As such, the approach focuses on how to frame a given risk modeling problem, how to use that framing to select an appropriate mixture of uncertainty analyses techniques, and how to integrate the techniques into an uncertainty assessment that effectively communicates important information and insight to decision-makers. The approach is presented in this report. Practical guidance on characterizing and analyzing uncertainties about model form and quantities and on effectively communicating uncertainty analysis results is included. Examples from actual applications are presented

  11. Do we see how they perceive risk? An integrated analysis of risk perception and its effect on workplace safety behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xia, Nini; Wang, Xueqing; Griffin, Mark A; Wu, Chunlin; Liu, Bingsheng

    2017-09-01

    While risk perception is a key factor influencing safety behavior, the academia lacks specific attention to the ways that workers perceive risk, and thus little is known about the mechanisms through which different risk perceptions influence safety behavior. Most previous research in the workplace safety domain argues that people tend to perceive risk based on rational formulations of risk criticality. However, individuals' emotions can be also useful in understanding their perceptions. Therefore, this research employs an integrated analysis concerning the rational and emotional perspectives. Specifically, it was expected that the identified three rational ways of perceiving risk, i.e., perceived probability, severity, and negative utility, would influence the direct emotional risk perception. Furthermore, these four risk perceptions were all expected to positively but differently influence safety behavior. The hypotheses were tested using a sample of 120 construction workers. It was found that all the three rational risk perceptions significantly influenced workers' direct perception of risk that is mainly based on emotions. Furthermore, safety behavior among workers relied mainly on emotional perception but not rational calculations of risk. This research contributes to workplace safety research by highlighting the importance of integrating the emotional assessment of risk, especially when workers' risk perception and behavior are concerned. Suggested avenues for improving safety behavior through improvement in risk perception include being aware of the possibility of different ways of perceiving risk, promoting experience sharing and accident simulation, and uncovering risk information. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. System Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krantz, E.A.; Russell, K.D.; Stewart, H.D.; Van Siclen, V.S.

    1986-01-01

    Utilization of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) related information in the day-to-day operation of plant systems has, in the past, been impracticable due to the size of the computers needed to run PRA codes. This paper discusses a microcomputer-based database system which can greatly enhance the capability of operators or regulators to incorporate PRA methodologies into their routine decision making. This system is called the System Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) system. SARA was developed by EG and G Idaho, Inc. at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory to facilitate the study of frequency and consequence analyses of accident sequences from a large number of light water reactors (LWRs) in this country. This information is being amassed by several studies sponsored by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC). To meet the need of portability and accessibility, and to perform the variety of calculations necessary, it was felt that a microcomputer-based system would be most suitable

  13. Methodologies for risk analysis in slope instability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernabeu Garcia, M.; Diaz Torres, J. A.

    2014-01-01

    This paper is an approach to the different methodologies used in conducting landslide risk maps so that the reader can get a basic knowledge about how to proceed in its development. The landslide hazard maps are increasingly demanded by governments. This is because due to climate change, deforestation and the pressure exerted by the growth of urban centers, damage caused by natural phenomena is increasing each year, making this area of work a field of study with increasing importance. To explain the process of mapping a journey through each of the phases of which it is composed is made: from the study of the types of slope movements and the necessary management of geographic information systems (GIS) inventories and landslide susceptibility analysis, threat, vulnerability and risk. (Author)

  14. Model risk analysis for risk management and option pricing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kerkhof, F.L.J.

    2003-01-01

    Due to the growing complexity of products in financial markets, market participants rely more and more on quantitative models for trading and risk management decisions. This introduces a fairly new type of risk, namely, model risk. In the first part of this thesis we investigate the quantitative

  15. Risk management in organic coffee supply chains : testing the usefulness of critical risk models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brusselaers, J.F.; Benninga, J.; Hennen, W.H.G.J.

    2011-01-01

    This report documents the findings of the analysis of the supply chain of organic coffee from Uganda to the Netherlands using a Chain Risk Model (CRM). The CRM considers contamination of organic coffee with chemicals as a threat for the supply chain, and analyses the consequences of contamination in

  16. Nuclear risk analysis of the Ulysses mission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bartram, B.W.; Vaughan, F.R.; Englehart, D.R.W.

    1991-01-01

    The use of a radioisotope thermoelectric generator fueled with plutonium-238 dioxide on the Space Shuttle-launched Ulysses mission implies some level of risk due to potential accidents. This paper describes the method used to quantify risks in the Ulysses mission Final Safety Analysis Report prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy. The starting point for the analysis described herein is following input of source term probability distributions from the General Electric Company. A Monte Carlo technique is used to develop probability distributions of radiological consequences for a range of accident scenarios thoughout the mission. Factors affecting radiological consequences are identified, the probability distribution of the effect of each factor determined, and the functional relationship among all the factors established. The probability distributions of all the factor effects are then combined using a Monte Carlo technique. The results of the analysis are presented in terms of complementary cumulative distribution functions (CCDF) by mission sub-phase, phase, and the overall mission. The CCDFs show the total probability that consequences (calculated health effects) would be equal to or greater than a given value

  17. Risk management and analysis: risk assessment (qualitative and quantitative)

    OpenAIRE

    Valentin Mazareanu

    2007-01-01

    We use to define risk as the possibility of suffering a loss. Starting this, risk management is defined as a business process whose purpose is to ensure that the organization is protected against risks and their effects. In order to prioritize, to develop a response plan and after that to monitor the identified risks we need to asses them. But at this point a question is born: should I choose a qualitative approach or a quantitative one? This paper will make a short overview over the risk eva...

  18. HERBE- Analysis of test operation results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pesic, M. et.al.

    1991-01-01

    This document is part of the safety analyses performed for the RB reactor operation with the coupled fast-thermal system HERBE and is part of the final safety report together with the 'Report on test operation of HERBE for the period Dec. 15 1989 - May 15 1990. This report covers the following main topics: determination of reactivity variations dependent on the variations moderator critical level; determination of reactivity for the flooded neutron converter; and the accident analysis of neutron converter flooding

  19. Path analysis of risk factors leading to premature birth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fields, S J; Livshits, G; Sirotta, L; Merlob, P

    1996-01-01

    The present study tested whether various sociodemographic, anthropometric, behavioral, and medical/physiological factors act in a direct or indirect manner on the risk of prematurity using path analysis on a sample of Israeli births. The path model shows that medical complications, primarily toxemia, chorioammionitis, and a previous low birth weight delivery directly and significantly act on the risk of prematurity as do low maternal pregnancy weight gain and ethnicity. Other medical complications, including chronic hypertension, preclampsia, and placental abruption, although significantly correlated with prematurity, act indirectly on prematurity through toxemia. The model further shows that the commonly accepted sociodemographic, anthropometric, and behavioral risk factors act by modifying the development of medical complications that lead to prematurity as opposed to having a direct effect on premature delivery. © 1996 Wiley-Liss, Inc. Copyright © 1996 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  20. RISK ANALYSIS APPLIED IN OIL EXPLORATION AND PRODUCTION

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ES Obe

    aDepartment of Civil Engineering, University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Enugu State, Nigeria. ... The analysis in this work is ... risk analysis, oil field, risk management, projects, investment opportunity. 1. .... own merit but since the company has limited.

  1. Metric properties of the "timed get up and go- modified version" test, in risk assessment of falls in active women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alfonso Mora, Margareth Lorena

    2017-03-30

    To analyse the metric properties of the Timed Get up and Go-Modified Version Test (TGUGM), in risk assessment of falls in a group of physically active women. A sample was constituted by 202 women over 55 years of age, were assessed through a crosssectional study. The TGUGM was applied to assess their fall risk. The test was analysed by comparison of the qualitative and quantitative information and by factor analysis. The development of a logistic regression model explained the risk of falls according to the test components. The TGUGM was useful for assessing the risk of falls in the studied group. The test revealed two factors: the Get Up and the Gait with dual task . Less than twelve points in the evaluation or runtimes higher than 35 seconds was associated with high risk of falling. More than 35 seconds in the test indicated a risk fall probability greater than 0.50. Also, scores less than 12 points were associated with a delay of 7 seconds more in the execution of the test ( p = 0.0016). Factor analysis of TGUGM revealed two dimensions that can be independent predictors of risk of falling: The Get up that explains between 64% and 87% of the risk of falling, and the Gait with dual task, that explains between 77% and 95% of risk of falling.

  2. VETA-I x ray test analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brissenden, R. J. V.; Chartas, G.; Freeman, M. D.; Hughes, J. P.; Kellogg, E. M.; Podgorski, W. A.; Schwartz, D. A.; Zhao, P.

    1992-01-01

    This interim report presents some definitive results from our analysis of the VETA-I x-ray testing data. It also provides a description of the hardware and software used in the conduct of the VETA-I x-ray test program performed at the MSFC x-ray Calibration Facility (XRCF). These test results also serve to supply data and information to include in the TRW final report required by DPD 692, DR XC04. To provide an authoritative compendium of results, we have taken nine papers as published in the SPIE Symposium, 'Grazing Incidence X-ray/EUV Optics for Astronomy and Projection Lithography' and have reproduced them as the content of this report.

  3. Cross wavelet analysis: significance testing and pitfalls

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Maraun

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we present a detailed evaluation of cross wavelet analysis of bivariate time series. We develop a statistical test for zero wavelet coherency based on Monte Carlo simulations. If at least one of the two processes considered is Gaussian white noise, an approximative formula for the critical value can be utilized. In a second part, typical pitfalls of wavelet cross spectra and wavelet coherency are discussed. The wavelet cross spectrum appears to be not suitable for significance testing the interrelation between two processes. Instead, one should rather apply wavelet coherency. Furthermore we investigate problems due to multiple testing. Based on these results, we show that coherency between ENSO and NAO is an artefact for most of the time from 1900 to 1995. However, during a distinct period from around 1920 to 1940, significant coherency between the two phenomena occurs.

  4. Gene set analysis using variance component tests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Yen-Tsung; Lin, Xihong

    2013-06-28

    Gene set analyses have become increasingly important in genomic research, as many complex diseases are contributed jointly by alterations of numerous genes. Genes often coordinate together as a functional repertoire, e.g., a biological pathway/network and are highly correlated. However, most of the existing gene set analysis methods do not fully account for the correlation among the genes. Here we propose to tackle this important feature of a gene set to improve statistical power in gene set analyses. We propose to model the effects of an independent variable, e.g., exposure/biological status (yes/no), on multiple gene expression values in a gene set using a multivariate linear regression model, where the correlation among the genes is explicitly modeled using a working covariance matrix. We develop TEGS (Test for the Effect of a Gene Set), a variance component test for the gene set effects by assuming a common distribution for regression coefficients in multivariate linear regression models, and calculate the p-values using permutation and a scaled chi-square approximation. We show using simulations that type I error is protected under different choices of working covariance matrices and power is improved as the working covariance approaches the true covariance. The global test is a special case of TEGS when correlation among genes in a gene set is ignored. Using both simulation data and a published diabetes dataset, we show that our test outperforms the commonly used approaches, the global test and gene set enrichment analysis (GSEA). We develop a gene set analyses method (TEGS) under the multivariate regression framework, which directly models the interdependence of the expression values in a gene set using a working covariance. TEGS outperforms two widely used methods, GSEA and global test in both simulation and a diabetes microarray data.

  5. Identifying elderly people at risk for cognitive decline by using the 2-step test.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maruya, Kohei; Fujita, Hiroaki; Arai, Tomoyuki; Hosoi, Toshiki; Ogiwara, Kennichi; Moriyama, Shunnichiro; Ishibashi, Hideaki

    2018-01-01

    [Purpose] The purpose is to verify the effectiveness of the 2-step test in predicting cognitive decline in elderly individuals. [Subjects and Methods] One hundred eighty-two participants aged over 65 years underwent the 2-step test, cognitive function tests and higher level competence testing. Participants were classified as Robust, step test, variables were compared between groups. In addition, ordered logistic analysis was used to analyze cognitive functions as independent variables in the three groups, using the 2-step test results as the dependent variable, with age, gender, etc. as adjustment factors. [Results] In the crude data, the step test was related to the Stroop test (β: 0.06, 95% confidence interval: 0.01-0.12). [Conclusion] The finding is that the risk stage of the 2-step test is related to cognitive functions, even at an initial risk stage. The 2-step test may help with earlier detection and implementation of prevention measures for locomotive syndrome and mild cognitive impairment.

  6. Analysis and risk management after Fukushima

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nelson, P. F.

    2011-11-01

    This article describes the impact in the nuclear industry after the only accidents with affectation to the public: the Three Mile Island and Chernobyl. and discusses what comes after Fukushima with regard to the Safety Probabilistic Analysis (Spa) and their use in the decisions taking. A reference to the standard ASME/ANS of Spa is made and the possible changes due to the learned lessons after the Fukushima accident. The main changes are described in the art state and the priorities of the Spa studies. These include the change in the mission time of the emergency systems, the necessity to model the alternating systems, the risk consideration of a site with multi-units, the importance of making a Spa level 3 and the Spa of external events. The Spa is the key tool of the discipline of risk management, but given the learned lessons, is more necessary in all the aspects of the operation and surveillance of a nuclear power plant. A strategy is presented to improve the response to a severe accident, that includes consider the risks of the specific nuclear power plant. (Author)

  7. Predicting complication risk in spine surgery: a prospective analysis of a novel risk assessment tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veeravagu, Anand; Li, Amy; Swinney, Christian; Tian, Lu; Moraff, Adrienne; Azad, Tej D; Cheng, Ivan; Alamin, Todd; Hu, Serena S; Anderson, Robert L; Shuer, Lawrence; Desai, Atman; Park, Jon; Olshen, Richard A; Ratliff, John K

    2017-07-01

    OBJECTIVE The ability to assess the risk of adverse events based on known patient factors and comorbidities would provide more effective preoperative risk stratification. Present risk assessment in spine surgery is limited. An adverse event prediction tool was developed to predict the risk of complications after spine surgery and tested on a prospective patient cohort. METHODS The spinal Risk Assessment Tool (RAT), a novel instrument for the assessment of risk for patients undergoing spine surgery that was developed based on an administrative claims database, was prospectively applied to 246 patients undergoing 257 spinal procedures over a 3-month period. Prospectively collected data were used to compare the RAT to the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and the American College of Surgeons National Surgery Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) Surgical Risk Calculator. Study end point was occurrence and type of complication after spine surgery. RESULTS The authors identified 69 patients (73 procedures) who experienced a complication over the prospective study period. Cardiac complications were most common (10.2%). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were calculated to compare complication outcomes using the different assessment tools. Area under the curve (AUC) analysis showed comparable predictive accuracy between the RAT and the ACS NSQIP calculator (0.670 [95% CI 0.60-0.74] in RAT, 0.669 [95% CI 0.60-0.74] in NSQIP). The CCI was not accurate in predicting complication occurrence (0.55 [95% CI 0.48-0.62]). The RAT produced mean probabilities of 34.6% for patients who had a complication and 24% for patients who did not (p = 0.0003). The generated predicted values were stratified into low, medium, and high rates. For the RAT, the predicted complication rate was 10.1% in the low-risk group (observed rate 12.8%), 21.9% in the medium-risk group (observed 31.8%), and 49.7% in the high-risk group (observed 41.2%). The ACS NSQIP calculator consistently

  8. Risk Analysis Approach to Rainwater Harvesting Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nadia Ursino

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Urban rainwater reuse preserves water resources and promotes sustainable development in rapidly growing urban areas. The efficiency of a large number of urban water reuse systems, operating under different climate and demand conditions, is evaluated here on the base of a new risk analysis approach. Results obtained by probability analysis (PA indicate that maximum efficiency in low demanding scenarios is above 0.5 and a threshold, distinguishing low from high demanding scenarios, indicates that in low demanding scenarios no significant improvement in performance may be attained by increasing the storage capacity of rainwater harvesting tanks. Threshold behaviour is displayed when tank storage capacity is designed to match both the average collected volume and the average reuse volume. The low demand limit cannot be achieved under climate and operating conditions characterized by a disproportion between harvesting and demand volume.

  9. PSA testing for men at average risk of prostate cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruce K Armstrong

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Prostate-specific antigen (PSA testing of men at normal risk of prostate cancer is one of the most contested issues in cancer screening. There is no formal screening program, but testing is common – arguably a practice that ran ahead of the evidence. Public and professional communication about PSA screening has been highly varied and potentially confusing for practitioners and patients alike. There has been much research and policy activity relating to PSA testing in recent years. Landmark randomised controlled trials have been reported; authorities – including the 2013 Prostate Cancer World Congress, the Prostate Cancer Foundation of Australia, Cancer Council Australia, and the National Health and Medical Research Council – have made or endorsed public statements and/or issued clinical practice guidelines; and the US Preventive Services Task Force is revising its recommendations. But disagreement continues. The contention is partly over what the new evidence means. It is also a result of different valuing and prioritisation of outcomes that are hard to compare: prostate cancer deaths prevented (a small and disputed number; prevention of metastatic disease (somewhat more common; and side-effects of treatment such as incontinence, impotence and bowel trouble (more common again. A sizeable proportion of men diagnosed through PSA testing (somewhere between 20% and 50% would never have had prostate cancer symptoms sufficient to prompt investigation; many of these men are older, with competing comorbidities. It is a complex picture. Below are four viewpoints from expert participants in the evolving debate, commissioned for this cancer screening themed issue of Public Health Research & Practice. We asked the authors to respond to the challenge of PSA testing of asymptomatic, normal-risk men. They raise important considerations: uncertainty, harms, the trustworthiness and interpretation of the evidence, cost (e.g. of using multiparametric

  10. Military Ecological Risk Assessment Framework (MERAF) for Assessment of Risks of Military Training and Testing to Natural Resources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Suter II, G.W.

    2003-06-18

    The objective of this research is to provide the DoD with a framework based on a systematic, risk-based approach to assess impacts for management of natural resources in an ecosystem context. This risk assessment framework is consistent with, but extends beyond, the EPA's ecological risk assessment framework, and specifically addresses DoD activities and management needs. MERAF is intended to be consistent with existing procedures for environmental assessment and planning with DoD testing and training. The intention is to supplement these procedures rather than creating new procedural requirements. MERAF is suitable for use for training and testing area assessment and management. It does not include human health risks nor does it address specific permitting or compliance requirements, although it may be useful in some of these cases. Use of MERAF fits into the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) process by providing a consistent and rigorous way of organizing and conducting the technical analysis for Environmental Impact Statements (EISs) (Sigal 1993; Carpenter 1995; Canter and Sadler 1997). It neither conflicts with, nor replaces, procedural requirements within the NEPA process or document management processes already in place within DoD.

  11. Probabilistic methods in fire-risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brandyberry, M.D.

    1989-01-01

    The first part of this work outlines a method for assessing the frequency of ignition of a consumer product in a building and shows how the method would be used in an example scenario utilizing upholstered furniture as the product and radiant auxiliary heating devices (electric heaters, wood stoves) as the ignition source. Deterministic thermal models of the heat-transport processes are coupled with parameter uncertainty analysis of the models and with a probabilistic analysis of the events involved in a typical scenario. This leads to a distribution for the frequency of ignition for the product. In second part, fire-risk analysis as currently used in nuclear plants is outlines along with a discussion of the relevant uncertainties. The use of the computer code COMPBRN is discussed for use in the fire-growth analysis along with the use of response-surface methodology to quantify uncertainties in the code's use. Generalized response surfaces are developed for temperature versus time for a cable tray, as well as a surface for the hot gas layer temperature and depth for a room of arbitrary geometry within a typical nuclear power plant compartment. These surfaces are then used to simulate the cable tray damage time in a compartment fire experiment

  12. The Successful Test Taker: Exploring Test-Taking Behavior Profiles through Cluster Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stenlund, Tova; Lyrén, Per-Erik; Eklöf, Hanna

    2018-01-01

    To be successful in a high-stakes testing situation is desirable for any test taker. It has been found that, beside content knowledge, test-taking behavior, such as risk-taking strategies, motivation, and test anxiety, is important for test performance. The purposes of the present study were to identify and group test takers with similar patterns…

  13. Risk as analysis and risk as feelings: some thoughts about affect, reason, risk, and rationality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slovic, Paul; Finucane, Melissa L; Peters, Ellen; MacGregor, Donald G

    2004-04-01

    Modern theories in cognitive psychology and neuroscience indicate that there are two fundamental ways in which human beings comprehend risk. The "analytic system" uses algorithms and normative rules, such as probability calculus, formal logic, and risk assessment. It is relatively slow, effortful, and requires conscious control. The "experiential system" is intuitive, fast, mostly automatic, and not very accessible to conscious awareness. The experiential system enabled human beings to survive during their long period of evolution and remains today the most natural and most common way to respond to risk. It relies on images and associations, linked by experience to emotion and affect (a feeling that something is good or bad). This system represents risk as a feeling that tells us whether it is safe to walk down this dark street or drink this strange-smelling water. Proponents of formal risk analysis tend to view affective responses to risk as irrational. Current wisdom disputes this view. The rational and the experiential systems operate in parallel and each seems to depend on the other for guidance. Studies have demonstrated that analytic reasoning cannot be effective unless it is guided by emotion and affect. Rational decision making requires proper integration of both modes of thought. Both systems have their advantages, biases, and limitations. Now that we are beginning to understand the complex interplay between emotion and reason that is essential to rational behavior, the challenge before us is to think creatively about what this means for managing risk. On the one hand, how do we apply reason to temper the strong emotions engendered by some risk events? On the other hand, how do we infuse needed "doses of feeling" into circumstances where lack of experience may otherwise leave us too "coldly rational"? This article addresses these important questions.

  14. Risk based test interval and maintenance optimisation - Application and uses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sparre, E.

    1999-10-01

    The project is part of an IAEA co-ordinated Research Project (CRP) on 'Development of Methodologies for Optimisation of Surveillance Testing and Maintenance of Safety Related Equipment at NPPs'. The purpose of the project is to investigate the sensitivity of the results obtained when performing risk based optimisation of the technical specifications. Previous projects have shown that complete LPSA models can be created and that these models allow optimisation of technical specifications. However, these optimisations did not include any in depth check of the result sensitivity with regards to methods, model completeness etc. Four different test intervals have been investigated in this study. Aside from an original, nominal, optimisation a set of sensitivity analyses has been performed and the results from these analyses have been compared to the original optimisation. The analyses indicate that the result of an optimisation is rather stable. However, it is not possible to draw any certain conclusions without performing a number of sensitivity analyses. Significant differences in the optimisation result were discovered when analysing an alternative configuration. Also deterministic uncertainties seem to affect the result of an optimisation largely. The sensitivity of failure data uncertainties is important to investigate in detail since the methodology is based on the assumption that the unavailability of a component is dependent on the length of the test interval

  15. RELAP5 analysis of PACTEL injection tests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kimber, G.R.; Lillington, J.N.

    2000-01-01

    A characteristic feature of advanced reactor designs is their reliance on passive safety systems. It is important to assess both the operation of such systems and the ability of systems codes, such as RELAP5, to model them. In Finland VTT Energy, together with Lappeenranta University of Technology, is using the PACTEL facility for the investigation of passive core cooling systems. In particular, a core make-up tank (CMT) has been installed in the rig to operate in a similar manner to those in many Advanced PWR designs. Three small break tests, GDE-24, GDE-34 and GDE-43 in the PACTEL facility were chosen for modelling with RELAP5. The objective of GDE-24 was to investigate CMT behaviour and in particular the effects of condensation in the CMT. The second test, GDE-34, was similar except that it had a smaller CMT and at the start of the test the water in the CMT and connecting pipework was at an elevated temperature. Test GDE-43 focused on conditions when the driving force for flow through the passive system injection system (PSIS) slowly disappears. Analysis of all tests reported here was carried out with RELAP5/MOD 3.2.1.2. The paper summarises the conclusions of all the tests. A critical part of the study revolved around modelling of the CMT. A model was developed to allow its detailed behaviour to be investigated more easily. This enabled recommendations for improving the condensation modelling in RELAP5 to be made. Apart from the wall condensation modelling issue, the implication of the work is that RELAP5/MOD 3.2.1.2 (a comparatively recent version of the code) is broadly adequate for these applications. (author)

  16. EM algorithm for one-shot device testing with competing risks under exponential distribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Balakrishnan, N.; So, H.Y.; Ling, M.H.

    2015-01-01

    This paper provides an extension of the work of Balakrishnan and Ling [1] by introducing a competing risks model into a one-shot device testing analysis under an accelerated life test setting. An Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm is then developed for the estimation of the model parameters. An extensive Monte Carlo simulation study is carried out to assess the performance of the EM algorithm and then compare the obtained results with the initial estimates obtained by the Inequality Constrained Least Squares (ICLS) method of estimation. Finally, we apply the EM algorithm to a clinical data, ED01, to illustrate the method of inference developed here. - Highlights: • ALT data analysis for one-shot devices with competing risks is considered. • EM algorithm is developed for the determination of the MLEs. • The estimations of lifetime under normal operating conditions are presented. • The EM algorithm improves the convergence rate

  17. Winston-Lutz Test: A quantitative analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pereira, Aline Garcia; Nandi, Dorival Menegaz; Saraiva, Crystian Wilian Chagas

    2017-01-01

    Objective: Describe a method of quantitative analysis for the Winston-Lutz test. Materials and methods The research is a qualitative exploratory study. The materials used were: portal film; Winston- Lutz test tools and Omni Pro software. Sixteen portal films were used as samples and were analyzed by five different technicians to measure the deviation between the radiation isocenters and mechanic. Results: Among the results were identified two combinations with offset values greater than 1 mm. In addition, when compared the method developed with the previously studied, it was observed that the data obtained are very close, with the maximum percentage deviation of 32.5%, which demonstrates its efficacy in reducing dependence on the performer. Conclusion: The results show that the method is reproducible and practical, which constitutes one of the fundamental factors for its implementation. (author)

  18. Reliability analysis applied to structural tests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diamond, P.; Payne, A. O.

    1972-01-01

    The application of reliability theory to predict, from structural fatigue test data, the risk of failure of a structure under service conditions because its load-carrying capability is progressively reduced by the extension of a fatigue crack, is considered. The procedure is applicable to both safe-life and fail-safe structures and, for a prescribed safety level, it will enable an inspection procedure to be planned or, if inspection is not feasible, it will evaluate the life to replacement. The theory has been further developed to cope with the case of structures with initial cracks, such as can occur in modern high-strength materials which are susceptible to the formation of small flaws during the production process. The method has been applied to a structure of high-strength steel and the results are compared with those obtained by the current life estimation procedures. This has shown that the conventional methods can be unconservative in certain cases, depending on the characteristics of the structure and the design operating conditions. The suitability of the probabilistic approach to the interpretation of the results from full-scale fatigue testing of aircraft structures is discussed and the assumptions involved are examined.

  19. A Thermorisk framework for the analysis of energy systems by combining risk and exergy analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cassetti, G.; Colombo, E.; Zio, E.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • An exergy based analysis for improving efficiency and safety of energy systems is presented. • The relation between thermodynamic parameters and the safety characteristics is identified. • Possible modifications in the process are indicated to improve the safety of the system. - Abstract: The impact of energy production, transformation and use on the environmental resources encourage to understand the mechanisms of resource degradation and to develop proper analyses to reduce the impact of the energy systems on the environment. At the technical level, most attempts for reducing the environmental impact of energy systems focus on the improvement of process efficiency. One way toward an integrated approach is that of adopting exergy analysis for assessing efficiency and test improving design and operation solutions. The paper presents an exergy based analysis for improving efficiency and safety of energy systems, named Thermorisk analysis. The purpose of the Thermorisk analysis is to supply information to control, and eventually reduce, the risk of the systems (i.e. risk of accidents) by acting on the thermodynamic parameters and safety characteristics in the same frame. The proper combination of exergy and risk analysis allows monitoring the effects of efficiency improvement on the safety of the systems analyzed. A case study is presented, showing the potential of the analysis to identify the relation between the exergy efficiency and the risk of the system analyzed, and the contribution of inefficiencies on the safety of the process. Possible modifications in the process are indicated to improve the safety of the system.

  20. Testing and Analysis of Sensor Ports

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, M.; Frendi, A.; Thompson, W.; Casiano, M. J.

    2016-01-01

    This Technical Publication summarizes the work focused on the testing and analysis of sensor ports. The tasks under this contract were divided into three areas: (1) Development of an Analytical Model, (2) Conducting a Set of Experiments, and (3) Obtaining Computational Solutions. Results from the experiment using both short and long sensor ports were obtained using harmonic, random, and frequency sweep plane acoustic waves. An amplification factor of the pressure signal between the port inlet and the back of the port is obtained and compared to models. Comparisons of model and experimental results showed very good agreement.

  1. WES: A well test analysis expert system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mensch, A.

    1988-06-01

    This report describes part of the development of an expert system in the domain of well-test analysis. This work has been done during my final internship, completed at the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory. The report is divided in three parts: the first one gives a description of the state of the project at the time I first began to work on it, and raises some problems that have to be solved. The second section shows the results that have been reached, and the last one draws conclusions from these results and proposes extensions that would be useful in the future

  2. Communicating radon risk effectively: Radon testing in Maryland. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Desvousges, W.H.; Smith, V.K.; Rink, H.H.

    1988-10-01

    Two sets of materials and corresponding delivery strategies for communicating radon risk were evaluated, compared with a 'no-special-treatment' strategy in a comparison community. One community received radio public-service announcements and utility bill inserts. The second received these plus posters, local government sponsorship of a radon awareness week, and local slide presentations. The most-intensive efforts (multiple channels, multiple hits) were more effective than the less intensive effort, which had little impact compared with no special treatment. From a marketing perspective, the effort was very successful, increasing the share of homeowners who tested for radon from 5% to 15%. This may not be viewed as sufficiently effective from a public-health perspective, however

  3. Heterogeneity in glucose response curves during an oral glucose tolerance test and associated cardiometabolic risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hulman, Adam; Simmons, Rebecca Kate; Vistisen, Dorte

    2017-01-01

    patterns of plasma glucose change during the oral glucose tolerance test. Cardiometabolic risk factor profiles were compared between the identified groups. Using latent class trajectory analysis, five glucose response curves were identified. Despite similar fasting and 2-h values, glucose peaks and peak......We aimed to examine heterogeneity in glucose response curves during an oral glucose tolerance test with multiple measurements and to compare cardiometabolic risk profiles between identified glucose response curve groups. We analyzed data from 1,267 individuals without diabetes from five studies...... in Denmark, the Netherlands and the USA. Each study included between 5 and 11 measurements at different time points during a 2-h oral glucose tolerance test, resulting in 9,602 plasma glucose measurements. Latent class trajectories with a cubic specification for time were fitted to identify different...

  4. Test and Analysis of Metallurgical Converter Equipment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shan Pang

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Oxygen top-blow converter is the main equipment in steel making, and its work reliability decides the security and economy of steel production. Therefore, how to design and test analysis of convertor has been an important subject of industry research. Geometric modelling and structure analysis of converter tilting device by using Pro/E program .The design Principle, basic design structure were analyzed in detail. The computer simulation software of metallurgical converter equipment and how to use it were introduced .It developed by VC++ software. The position of barycentre and moment curve in No.3 and No.4 are calculated. The converter acceleration down dip can be resolved by comparing the moment curve and center curve.

  5. Undetected Toxicity Risk in Pharmacogenetic Testing for Dihydropyrimidine Dehydrogenase

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felicia Stefania Falvella

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Fluoropyrimidines, the mainstay agents for the treatment of colorectal cancer, alone or as a part of combination therapies, cause severe adverse reactions in about 10%–30% of patients. Dihydropyrimidine dehydrogenase (DPD, a key enzyme in the catabolism of 5-fluorouracil, has been intensively investigated in relation to fluoropyrimidine toxicity, and several DPD gene (DPYD polymorphisms are associated with decreased enzyme activity and increased risk of fluoropyrimidine-related toxicity. In patients carrying non-functional DPYD variants (c.1905+1G>A, c.1679T>G, c.2846A>T, fluoropyrimidines should be avoided or reduced according to the patients’ homozygous or heterozygous status, respectively. For other common DPYD variants (c.496A>G, c.1129-5923C>G, c.1896T>C, conflicting data are reported and their use in clinical practice still needs to be validated. The high frequency of DPYD polymorphism and the lack of large prospective trials may explain differences in studies’ results. The epigenetic regulation of DPD expression has been recently investigated to explain the variable activity of the enzyme. DPYD promoter methylation and its regulation by microRNAs may affect the toxicity risk of fluoropyrimidines. The studies we reviewed indicate that pharmacogenetic testing is promising to direct personalised dosing of fluoropyrimidines, although further investigations are needed to establish the role of DPD in severe toxicity in patients treated for colorectal cancer.

  6. Overcoming barriers to integrating economic analysis into risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffmann, Sandra

    2011-09-01

    Regulatory risk analysis is designed to provide decisionmakers with a clearer understanding of how policies are likely to affect risk. The systems that produce risk are biological, physical, and social and economic. As a result, risk analysis is an inherently interdisciplinary task. Yet in practice, risk analysis has been interdisciplinary in only limited ways. Risk analysis could provide more accurate assessments of risk if there were better integration of economics and other social sciences into risk assessment itself. This essay examines how discussions about risk analysis policy have influenced the roles of various disciplines in risk analysis. It explores ways in which integrated bio/physical-economic modeling could contribute to more accurate assessments of risk. It reviews examples of the kind of integrated economics-bio/physical modeling that could be used to enhance risk assessment. The essay ends with a discussion of institutional barriers to greater integration of economic modeling into risk assessment and provides suggestions on how these might be overcome. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  7. Economic analysis and management of climatic risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hourcade, J.C. (Centre International de Recherche sur l' Environnement et le Developpement, 92 - Montrouge (France))

    1994-01-01

    This paper aims at framing the collective decision problem in the face of climate change. It shows why it would be irrelevant to handle it in the form of a classical decision under uncertainty framework where a cost-benefit analysis is carried out including probability distribution on damages and risk aversion coefficients. A sequential approach to policy making is then proposed as an alternative in order to account for the inertia of socio-economic dynamics and the value of information. A simple model illustrates the gap between these two approaches; it shows the importance of combining the investments on climatic research, innovation policies and so-called 'no regret' short term decisions. It shows the fact that, even if they can be considered as quantitatively moderate, these potentials have a critical impact on long term viability of development; they embed a very high information value, lengthening the learning time vis-a-vis potentially major but controversial risks. (author). 21 refs., 3 figs.

  8. Risk oriented analysis of the SNR-300

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koeberlein, K.

    1982-01-01

    The Fact Finding Committee on 'Future Nuclear Power Policy' established by the 8th German Federal Parliament in its report of June 1980 among other items published the recommendation to commission a 'risk oriented analysis' of the SNR-300 in order to enable a pragmatic comparison to be made of the safety of the German prototype fast breeder reactor and a modern light water reactor (a Biblis B PWR). The Federal Minister for Research and Technology in August 1981 officially commissioned the Gesellschaft fuer Reaktorsicherheit (GRS) to conduct the study. Following a recommendation by the Fact Finding Committee, additional studies were performed also by a group of opponents of the breeder reactor. On the instigation of the group of opponents the delivery date of the study was altered several times and finally set at April 30, 1982. GRS submitted its report by this deadline. However, a joint report by the two groups could not be compiled, as had been requested by the client, because the contributions of the opponents were not made available until mid-May 1982 and then only as an 'interim report'. In summary, the GRS study indicates that the frequency and severity of major accidents is lower for the SNR-300 at the Kalkar site than for a PWR as covered in the German Nuclear Power Plant Risk Study. (orig.) [de

  9. Development of probabilistic risk analysis library

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soga, Shota; Kirimoto, Yukihiro; Kanda, Kenichi

    2015-01-01

    We developed a library that is designed to perform level 1 Probabilistic Risk Analysis using Binary Decision Diagram (BDD). In particular, our goal is to develop a library that will allow Japanese electric utilities to take the advantages of BDD that can solve Event Tree (ET) and Fault Tree (FT) models analytically. Using BDD, the library supports negation in FT which allows more flexible modeling of ET/FT. The library is written by C++ within an object-oriented framework using open source software. The library itself is a header-only library so that Japanese electric utilities can take advantages of its transparency to speed up development and to build their own software for their specific needs. In this report, the basic capabilities of the library is briefly described. In addition, several applications of the library are demonstrated including validation of MCS evaluation of PRA model and evaluation of corrective and preventive maintenance considering common cause failure. (author)

  10. Analysis of uncertainty in modeling perceived risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Melnyk, R.; Sandquist, G.M.

    2005-01-01

    Expanding on a mathematical model developed for quantifying and assessing perceived risks, the distribution functions, variances, and uncertainties associated with estimating the model parameters are quantified. The analytical model permits the identification and assignment of any number of quantifiable risk perception factors that can be incorporated within standard risk methodology. Those risk perception factors associated with major technical issues are modeled using lognormal probability density functions to span the potentially large uncertainty variations associated with these risk perceptions. The model quantifies the logic of public risk perception and provides an effective means for measuring and responding to perceived risks. (authors)

  11. Risk Analysis for Performance Improvement in a Romanian Pharmaceutical Company

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dana Corina Deselnicu

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents risk management analysis carried out to investigate the operations of a Romanian company dealing with the distribution of pharmaceutical products. The main risks challenging the company were identified, described and classified, providing a scientific base for further analysis. Then, the identified inherent risks were evaluated using tools as the risk index method and the risk matrix in order to emphasize their tolerance level. According to the results of the evaluation, risk mitigation strategies and measures were advanced for the management of the analysed risks. Relevant conclusions were drawn from the experience.

  12. Analysis and Testing of Mobile Wireless Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alena, Richard; Evenson, Darin; Rundquist, Victor; Clancy, Daniel (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    Wireless networks are being used to connect mobile computing elements in more applications as the technology matures. There are now many products (such as 802.11 and 802.11b) which ran in the ISM frequency band and comply with wireless network standards. They are being used increasingly to link mobile Intranet into Wired networks. Standard methods of analyzing and testing their performance and compatibility are needed to determine the limits of the technology. This paper presents analytical and experimental methods of determining network throughput, range and coverage, and interference sources. Both radio frequency (BE) domain and network domain analysis have been applied to determine wireless network throughput and range in the outdoor environment- Comparison of field test data taken under optimal conditions, with performance predicted from RF analysis, yielded quantitative results applicable to future designs. Layering multiple wireless network- sooners can increase performance. Wireless network components can be set to different radio frequency-hopping sequences or spreading functions, allowing more than one sooner to coexist. Therefore, we ran multiple 802.11-compliant systems concurrently in the same geographical area to determine interference effects and scalability, The results can be used to design of more robust networks which have multiple layers of wireless data communication paths and provide increased throughput overall.

  13. ANALYSIS AND MANAGEMENT RISK IN INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS

    OpenAIRE

    Lăpăduşi Mihaela Loredana,; Căruntu Constantin

    2009-01-01

    The risk is one of the most controversial issues for all persons involved both in domestic and international world economic affairs. The need to analyze, understand and effectively manage risk is growing, the ultimate aim being to obtain a higher degree of successThe risk means exposure to an uncertain future, the opportunity to face danger or suffering a loss ( "Risk - possibility of loss or injury", Webster's, 1995) or the chance that things go wrong ( "Risk is the change that something wil...

  14. Insurability of Cyber Risk: An Empirical Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Biener, Christian; Eling, Martin; Wirfs, Jan Hendrik

    2015-01-01

    This paper discusses the adequacy of insurance for managing cyber risk. To this end, we extract 994 cases of cyber losses from an operational risk database and analyse their statistical properties. Based on the empirical results and recent literature, we investigate the insurability of cyber risk by systematically reviewing the set of criteria introduced by Berliner (1982). Our findings emphasise the distinct characteristics of cyber risks compared with other operational risks and bring to li...

  15. Synthesis of Enterprise and Value-Based Methods for Multiattribute Risk Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kenley, C. Robert; Collins, John W.; Beck, John M.; Heydt, Harold J.; Garcia, Chad B.

    2001-01-01

    This paper describes a method for performing multiattribute decision analysis to prioritize ap-proaches to handling risks during the development and operation of complex socio-technical systems. The method combines risk categorization based on enterprise views, risk prioritization of the categories based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), and more standard probability-consequence ratings schemes. We also apply value-based testing me-thods used in software development to prioritize risk-handling approaches. We describe a tool that synthesizes the methods and performs a multiattribute analysis of the technical and pro-grammatic risks on the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) enterprise.

  16. HANFORD SAFETY ANALYSIS & RISK ASSESSMENT HANDBOOK (SARAH)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    EVANS, C B

    2004-12-21

    The purpose of the Hanford Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) is to support the development of safety basis documentation for Hazard Category 2 and 3 (HC-2 and 3) U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear facilities to meet the requirements of 10 CFR 830, ''Nuclear Safety Management''. Subpart B, ''Safety Basis Requirements.'' Consistent with DOE-STD-3009-94, Change Notice 2, ''Preparation Guide for U.S. Department of Energy Nonreactor Nuclear Facility Documented Safety Analyses'' (STD-3009), and DOE-STD-3011-2002, ''Guidance for Preparation of Basis for Interim Operation (BIO) Documents'' (STD-3011), the Hanford SARAH describes methodology for performing a safety analysis leading to development of a Documented Safety Analysis (DSA) and derivation of Technical Safety Requirements (TSR), and provides the information necessary to ensure a consistently rigorous approach that meets DOE expectations. The DSA and TSR documents, together with the DOE-issued Safety Evaluation Report (SER), are the basic components of facility safety basis documentation. For HC-2 or 3 nuclear facilities in long-term surveillance and maintenance (S&M), for decommissioning activities, where source term has been eliminated to the point that only low-level, residual fixed contamination is present, or for environmental remediation activities outside of a facility structure, DOE-STD-1120-98, ''Integration of Environment, Safety, and Health into Facility Disposition Activities'' (STD-1120), may serve as the basis for the DSA. HC-2 and 3 environmental remediation sites also are subject to the hazard analysis methodologies of this standard.

  17. A Comparative Risk Assessment of Extended Integrated Leak Rate Testing Intervals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oh, Ji Yong; Hwang, Seok Won; Lee, Byung Sik [Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Co., Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2009-10-15

    This paper presents the risk impacts of extending the Integrated Leak Rate Testing (ILRT) intervals (from five years to ten years) of Yonggwang (YGN) Unit 1 and 2. These risk impacts depended on the annual variances of meteorological data and resident population. Main comparisons were performed between the initial risk assessment (2005) for the purpose of extending ILRT interval and risk reassessment (2009) where the changed plant internal configurations (core inventory and radioisotope release fraction) and plant external alterations (wind directions, rainfall and population distributions) were monitored. The reassessment showed that there was imperceptible risk increase when the ILRT interval was extended compared to the initial risk assessment. In addition, the increased value of the Large Early Release Frequency (LERF) also satisfied the acceptance guideline proposed on Reg. Guide 1.174. The MACCS II code was used for evaluating the offsite consequence analysis. The primary risk index were used as the Probabilistic Population Dose (PPD) by considering the early effects within 80 km. The Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) of YGN 1 and 2 was applied to evaluate the accident frequency of each source term category and the used PSA scope was limited to internal event.

  18. Nanoscale Test Strips for Multiplexed Blood Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Eugene

    2015-01-01

    A critical component of the DNA Medicine Institute's Reusable Handheld Electrolyte and Lab Technology for Humans (rHEALTH) sensor are nanoscale test strips, or nanostrips, that enable multiplexed blood analysis. Nanostrips are conceptually similar to the standard urinalysis test strip, but the strips are shrunk down a billionfold to the microscale. Each nanostrip can have several sensor pads that fluoresce in response to different targets in a sample. The strips carry identification tags that permit differentiation of a specific panel from hundreds of other nanostrip panels during a single measurement session. In Phase I of the project, the company fabricated, tested, and demonstrated functional parathyroid hormone and vitamin D nanostrips for bone metabolism, and thrombin aptamer and immunoglobulin G antibody nanostrips. In Phase II, numerous nanostrips were developed to address key space flight-based medical needs: assessment of bone metabolism, immune response, cardiac status, liver metabolism, and lipid profiles. This unique approach holds genuine promise for space-based portable biodiagnostics and for point-of-care (POC) health monitoring and diagnostics here on Earth.

  19. Comprehensive safeguards evaluation methods and societal risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Richardson, J.M.

    1982-03-01

    Essential capabilities of an integrated evaluation methodology for analyzing safeguards systems are discussed. Such a methodology must be conceptually meaningful, technically defensible, discriminating and consistent. A decompostion of safeguards systems by function is mentioned as a possible starting point for methodology development. The application of a societal risk equation to safeguards systems analysis is addressed. Conceptual problems with this approach are discussed. Technical difficulties in applying this equation to safeguards systems are illustrated through the use of confidence intervals, information content, hypothesis testing and ranking and selection procedures

  20. 49 CFR 260.17 - Credit risk premium analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Credit risk premium analysis. 260.17 Section 260... Financial Assistance § 260.17 Credit risk premium analysis. (a) When Federal appropriations are not available to cover the total subsidy cost, the Administrator will determine the Credit Risk Premium...

  1. Advanced age, cardiovascular risk burden, and timed up and go test performance in Parkinson disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kotagal, Vikas; Albin, Roger L; Müller, Martijn L T M; Koeppe, Robert A; Studenski, Stephanie; Frey, Kirk A; Bohnen, Nicolaas I

    2014-12-01

    Cardiovascular comorbidities are a known risk factor for impaired mobility in elderly individuals. Motor impairments in Parkinson disease are conventionally ascribed to nigrostriatal dopaminergic denervation although progressive gait and balance impairments become more common with aging and often show limited response to dopaminergic replacement therapies. We explored the association between elevated cardiovascular risk factors and performance on the Timed Up and Go test in cross-sectional of Parkinson disease subjects (n = 83). Cardiovascular risk factor status was estimated using the Framingham General Cardiovascular Disease risk-scoring algorithm in order to dichotomize the cohort into those with and without elevated modifiable cardiovascular risk compared with normative scores for age and gender. All subjects underwent clinical and neuroimaging evaluations including a 3-m Timed Up and Go test, [(11)C]dihydrotetrabenazine positron emission tomography imaging to estimate nigrostriatal dopamine terminal loss, and an magnetic resonance imaging assessment of leukoaraiosis. A similar analysis was performed in 49 healthy controls. After adjusting for disease duration, leukoaraiosis, and nigrostriatal dopaminergic denervation, Parkinson disease subjects with elevated Framingham risk scores (n = 61) displayed slower Timed Up and Go test performance (β = 1.86, t = 2.41, p = .018) compared with subjects with normal range Framingham risk scores (n = 22). When age ≥65 was added to the model in a post hoc analysis, the strength of effect seen with older age (β = 1.51, t = 2.44, p = .017) was similar to that of elevated Framingham risk scoring (β = 1.87, t = 2.51, p = .014). In a multivariable regression model studying the healthy control population, advanced age (t = 2.15, p = .037) was a significant predictor of Timed Up and Go speed though striatal [(11)C]dihydrotetrabenazine (t = -1.30, p = .19) and elevated Framingham risk scores (t = 1.32, p = .19) were not

  2. Integration of risk analysis, land use planning, and cost analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rajen, G.; Sanchez, G.

    1994-01-01

    The Department of Energy (DOE) and the Pueblo of San Ildefonso (Pueblo), which is a sovereign Indian tribe, have often been involved in adversarial situations regarding the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The Pueblo shares a common boundary with the LANL. This paper describes an on-going project that could alter the DOE and the Pueblo's relationship to one of cooperation; and unite the DOE and the Pueblo in a Pollution Prevention/Waste Minimization, and Integrated Risk Analysis and Land Use Planning effort

  3. 12 CFR Appendix A to Subpart B of... - Risk-Based Capital Stress Test

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... required by statute under stipulated conditions of credit risk and interest rate risk. The stress test uses... credit risk, interest rate risk, the cashflow generator, and the capital calculation. Linkages among the components ensure that the measures of credit and interest rate risk pass into the cashflow generator. The...

  4. Risk uncertainty analysis methods for NUREG-1150

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benjamin, A.S.; Boyd, G.J.

    1987-01-01

    Evaluation and display of risk uncertainties for NUREG-1150 constitute a principal focus of the Severe Accident Risk Rebaselining/Risk Reduction Program (SARRP). Some of the principal objectives of the uncertainty evaluation are: (1) to provide a quantitative estimate that reflects, for those areas considered, a credible and realistic range of uncertainty in risk; (2) to rank the various sources of uncertainty with respect to their importance for various measures of risk; and (3) to characterize the state of understanding of each aspect of the risk assessment for which major uncertainties exist. This paper describes the methods developed to fulfill these objectives

  5. Conceptual risk assessment framework for global change risk analysis SRP

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Elphinstone, CD

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available on two of the most important underlying factors supporting the ecosystem: productivity and hypoxia afiecting harmful algae blooms (HABs) and the rock lobsters. The risk regimes are a function of two time scales | a ‘high’ wind stress in early summer... is a condition which can lead to various negative impacts depending on the particular marine life, for instance rock lobsters stranding. The exact deflnitions of the two seasonal occurrences resulting in the risk event, ‘high’ wind stress in ‘early...

  6. The Holistic Integrity Test (HIT - quantified resilience analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dobson Mike

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The Holistic Integrity Test (HIT - Quantified Resilience Analysis. Rising sea levels and wider climate change mean we face an increasing risk from flooding and other natural hazards. Tough economic times make it difficult to economically justify or afford the desired level of engineered risk reduction. Add to this significant uncertainty from a range of future predictions, constantly updated with new science. We therefore need to understand not just how to reduce the risk, but what could happen should above design standard events occur. In flood terms this includes not only the direct impacts (damage and loss of life, but the wider cascade impacts to infrastructure systems and the longer term impacts on the economy and society. However, understanding the “what if” is only the first part of the equation; a range of improvement measures to mitigate such effects need to be identified and implemented. These measures should consider reducing the risk, lessening the consequences, aiding the response, and speeding up the recovery. However, they need to be objectively assessed through quantitative analysis, which underpins them technically and economically. Without such analysis, it cannot be predicted how measures will perform if the extreme events occur. It is also vital to consider all possible hazards as measures for one hazard may hinder the response to another. The Holistic Integrity Test (HIT, uses quantitative system analysis and “HITs” the site, its infrastructure, contained dangers and wider regional system to determine how it copes with a range of severe shock events, Before, During and After the event, whilst also accounting for uncertainty (as illustrated in figure 1. First explained at the TINCE 2014 Nuclear Conference in Paris, it was explained in terms of a Nuclear Facility needing to analyse the site in response to post Fukushima needs; the hit is however universally applicable. The HIT has three key risk reduction goals: The

  7. Multiple Sclerosis Increases Fracture Risk: A Meta-Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guixian Dong

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. The association between multiple sclerosis (MS and fracture risk has been reported, but results of previous studies remain controversial and ambiguous. To assess the association between MS and fracture risk, a meta-analysis was performed. Method. Based on comprehensive searches of the PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science, we identified outcome data from all articles estimating the association between MS and fracture risk. The pooled risk ratios (RRs with 95% confidence intervals (CIs were calculated. Results. A significant association between MS and fracture risk was found. This result remained statistically significant when the adjusted RRs were combined. Subgroup analysis stratified by the site of fracture suggested significant associations between MS and tibia fracture risk, femur fracture risk, hip fracture risk, pelvis fracture risk, vertebrae fracture risk, and humerus fracture risk. In the subgroup analysis by gender, female MS patients had increased fracture risk. When stratified by history of drug use, use of antidepressants, hypnotics/anxiolytics, anticonvulsants, and glucocorticoids increased the risk of fracture risk in MS patients. Conclusions. This meta-analysis demonstrated that MS was significantly associated with fracture risk.

  8. Conventional fuel tank blunt impact tests : test and analysis results

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-04-02

    The Federal Railroad Administrations Office of Research : and Development is conducting research into fuel tank : crashworthiness. A series of impact tests are planned to : measure fuel tank deformation under two types of dynamic : loading conditi...

  9. Technical Overview of Ecological Risk Assessment - Analysis Phase: Exposure Characterization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Exposure Characterization is the second major component of the analysis phase of a risk assessment. For a pesticide risk assessment, the exposure characterization describes the potential or actual contact of a pesticide with a plant, animal, or media.

  10. Risk factors for false positive and for false negative test results in screening with fecal occult blood testing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stegeman, Inge; de Wijkerslooth, Thomas R.; Stoop, Esther M.; van Leerdam, Monique; van Ballegooijen, M.; Kraaijenhagen, Roderik A.; Fockens, Paul; Kuipers, Ernst J.; Dekker, Evelien; Bossuyt, Patrick M.

    2013-01-01

    Differences in the risk of a false negative or a false positive fecal immunochemical test (FIT) across subgroups may affect optimal screening strategies. We evaluate whether subgroups are at increased risk of a false positive or a false negative FIT result, whether such variability in risk is

  11. Development of Test-Analysis Models (TAM) for correlation of dynamic test and analysis results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angelucci, Filippo; Javeed, Mehzad; Mcgowan, Paul

    1992-01-01

    The primary objective of structural analysis of aerospace applications is to obtain a verified finite element model (FEM). The verified FEM can be used for loads analysis, evaluate structural modifications, or design control systems. Verification of the FEM is generally obtained as the result of correlating test and FEM models. A test analysis model (TAM) is very useful in the correlation process. A TAM is essentially a FEM reduced to the size of the test model, which attempts to preserve the dynamic characteristics of the original FEM in the analysis range of interest. Numerous methods for generating TAMs have been developed in the literature. The major emphasis of this paper is a description of the procedures necessary for creation of the TAM and the correlation of the reduced models with the FEM or the test results. Herein, three methods are discussed, namely Guyan, Improved Reduced System (IRS), and Hybrid. Also included are the procedures for performing these analyses using MSC/NASTRAN. Finally, application of the TAM process is demonstrated with an experimental test configuration of a ten bay cantilevered truss structure.

  12. Structural reliability analysis applied to pipeline risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gardiner, M. [GL Industrial Services, Loughborough (United Kingdom); Mendes, Renato F.; Donato, Guilherme V.P. [PETROBRAS S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) of pipelines requires two main components to be provided. These are models of the consequences that follow from some loss of containment incident, and models for the likelihood of such incidents occurring. This paper describes how PETROBRAS have used Structural Reliability Analysis for the second of these, to provide pipeline- and location-specific predictions of failure frequency for a number of pipeline assets. This paper presents an approach to estimating failure rates for liquid and gas pipelines, using Structural Reliability Analysis (SRA) to analyze the credible basic mechanisms of failure such as corrosion and mechanical damage. SRA is a probabilistic limit state method: for a given failure mechanism it quantifies the uncertainty in parameters to mathematical models of the load-resistance state of a structure and then evaluates the probability of load exceeding resistance. SRA can be used to benefit the pipeline risk management process by optimizing in-line inspection schedules, and as part of the design process for new construction in pipeline rights of way that already contain multiple lines. A case study is presented to show how the SRA approach has recently been used on PETROBRAS pipelines and the benefits obtained from it. (author)

  13. Guidelineness of the parameters using integrated test in down syndrome risk prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Jin Won [Graduate School of Catholic University of Pusan, Busan (Korea, Republic of); Go, Sung Jin; Kang, Se Sik; Kim, Chang Soo [Dept. Radiological Science, College of Health Sciences, Catholic University of Pusan, Busan (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-12-15

    This study was an evaluation of the significance of each parameter through aimed at pregnant women subjected to screening test(integrated test) in predicting risk of Down syndrome. We retrospectively analysed the correlation of risk of Down's syndrome with Nuchal Translucency(NT) images measured by ultrasound, Pregnancy Associated Plasma Protein A(PAPP-A), alpha-fetoprotein(AFP), unconjugated estriol(uE3), human chorionic gonadotrophin(hCG) and Inhibin A by maternal serum. As a result, a significant correlation with NT, uE3, hCG, Inhibin A is revealed with Down's syndrome risk(P<.001). In ROC analysis, AUC of Inhibin A is analysed as the biggest predictor of Down's syndrome(0.859). And the criterion for cut-off was inhibin A 1.4 MoM(sensitivity 81.8%, specificity 75.9%). In conclusion, Inhibin A was the most useful in parameters to predict Down's syndrome in the integrated test. If we make up for the weakness based on the cut-off value of parameters they will be able to be used as an independent indicator in the risk of Down's syndrome screening.

  14. Guidelineness of the parameters using integrated test in down syndrome risk prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Jin Won; Go, Sung Jin; Kang, Se Sik; Kim, Chang Soo

    2016-01-01

    This study was an evaluation of the significance of each parameter through aimed at pregnant women subjected to screening test(integrated test) in predicting risk of Down syndrome. We retrospectively analysed the correlation of risk of Down's syndrome with Nuchal Translucency(NT) images measured by ultrasound, Pregnancy Associated Plasma Protein A(PAPP-A), alpha-fetoprotein(AFP), unconjugated estriol(uE3), human chorionic gonadotrophin(hCG) and Inhibin A by maternal serum. As a result, a significant correlation with NT, uE3, hCG, Inhibin A is revealed with Down's syndrome risk(P<.001). In ROC analysis, AUC of Inhibin A is analysed as the biggest predictor of Down's syndrome(0.859). And the criterion for cut-off was inhibin A 1.4 MoM(sensitivity 81.8%, specificity 75.9%). In conclusion, Inhibin A was the most useful in parameters to predict Down's syndrome in the integrated test. If we make up for the weakness based on the cut-off value of parameters they will be able to be used as an independent indicator in the risk of Down's syndrome screening

  15. A Roadmap of Risk Diagnostic Methods: Developing an Integrated View of Risk Identification and Analysis Techniques

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Williams, Ray; Ambrose, Kate; Bentrem, Laura

    2004-01-01

    ...), which is envisioned to be a comprehensive reference tool for risk identification and analysis (RI AND A) techniques. Program Managers (PMs) responsible for developing or acquiring software-intensive systems typically identify risks in different ways...

  16. Chemical risk evaluation, importance of the risk analysis framework uses: Latin America development restrictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carrillo, M.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation is about reach and results of the risk analysis in Venezuela, chemical dangers in food, human damage, injuries , technologies news in fodd development, toxicity, microbiological risk, technical recommendations

  17. Diagnosis and Tests: Evaluating a Fall or Risk of Falling

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... as a physical therapist, who can evaluate your fall risk. If your healthcare provider concludes that you are ... to check for things that can impact your fall risk, such as electrolyte balance and the possibility of ...

  18. Putting problem formulation at the forefront of GMO risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tepfer, Mark; Racovita, Monica; Craig, Wendy

    2013-01-01

    When applying risk assessment and the broader process of risk analysis to decisions regarding the dissemination of genetically modified organisms (GMOs), the process has a tendency to become remarkably complex. Further, as greater numbers of countries consider authorising the large-scale dissemination of GMOs, and as GMOs with more complex traits reach late stages of development, there has been increasing concern about the burden posed by the complexity of risk analysis. We present here an improved approach for GMO risk analysis that gives a central role to problem formulation. Further, the risk analysis strategy has been clarified and simplified in order to make rigorously scientific risk assessment and risk analysis more broadly accessible to diverse stakeholder groups.

  19. Spectrometric Analysis for Pulse Jet Mixer Testing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    ZEIGLER, KRISTINE

    2004-01-01

    The Analytical Development Section (ADS) was tasked with providing support for a Hanford River Protection Program-Waste Treatment Program (RPP-WTP) project test involving absorption analysis for non-Newtonian pulse jet mixer testing for small scale (PJM) and prototype (CRV) tanks with sparging. Tanks filled with clay were mixed with various amounts of powdered dye as a tracer. The objective of the entire project was to determine the best mixing protocol (nozzle velocity, number of spargers used, total air flow, etc.) by determining the percent mixed volume through the use of an ultraviolet-visible (UV-Vis) spectrometer. The dye concentration within the sample could be correlated to the volume fraction mixed in the tank. Samples were received in vials, a series of dilutions were generated from the clay, allowed to equilibrate, then centrifuged and siphoned for the supernate liquid to analyze by absorption spectroscopy. Equilibration of the samples and thorough mixing of the samples were a continuous issue with dilution curves being difficult to obtain. Despite these technical issues, useful data was obtained for evaluation of various mix conditions

  20. Profile and Risk Factor Analysis of Unintentional Injuries in Children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhamkar, Rahul; Seth, Bageshree; Setia, Maninder Singh

    2016-10-01

    To study the profile and various risk factors associated with unintentional injuries in children. The study is a cross sectional analysis of data collected from 351 children presenting with unintentional injury to a tertiary care hospital in Navi Mumbai, India. Data were collected about variables based on Haddon Phase Factor Matrix - host, environment and agent factors. Proportions for categorical variables across various groups were compared using Chi square test or Fisher's exact test. Logistic regression model was used to evaluate the factors. Falls (36 %) were the most common injuries followed by bites (23 %). Majority of children were school going children (38 %) followed by preschool children (29 %). Forty-seven percent were from lower socioeconomic class. Commonest place of injury was home (48 %) and the commonest time was evening (49 %). Though there was male predominance in injuries, the difference across gender did not vary significantly (p = 0.15). Poisonings were significantly more common in infants and toddlers and in rural population (p risk of bites compared to urban (p Profile of injuries varies widely as per the variations in agent, host and environmental factors. Socio-environmental, economic conditions and infancy-toddler age groups are predisposing risk factors for bites and poisoning. Although rural areas and lower socioeconomic class population are more vulnerable to serious types of injuries, they still lack essential basic medical care.

  1. Brucellosis in a high risk occupational group: sero prevalence and analysis of risk factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mukhtar, F.

    2010-01-01

    Objectives: To estimate Brucella sero positivity among slaughterhouse workers of Lahore district and to elucidate risk factors associated with sero positivity to Brucella. Method: During the year 2008, a cross-sectional study was conducted in four slaughterhouses of Lahore district. A sample of 360 workers was selected from these slaughterhouses through stratified random sampling on proportional basis. Workers were interviewed using a structured questionnaire to obtain risk factor information and their blood samples were collected to be screened for the presence of anti-Brucella IgG using Enzyme Linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA) technique. Data management and analysis were performed using SPSS (statistical package for social sciences) version 16. Risk factors associated with sero positivity to anti-Brucella IgG were identified by constructing a logistic regression model. Results: Of the 360 serum samples tested, 21.7% (95% CI 17.44% - 25.96%) were positive by ELISA test. The logistic regression model identified age (OR 0.96, 95% CI 0.94-0.99), assistance in parturition of animal (OR 0.47, 95% CI 0.23-0.96), consuming raw milk (OR 2.25, 95% CI 1.04-4.87) and handling sheep (OR 0.30, 95% CI 0.09- 0.92) as risk factors for Brucella sero positivity among slaughterhouse workers of Lahore district. Conclusion: To reduce the burden of brucellosis, a national brucellosis control programme should be initiated with special emphasis on the high risk population of slaughterhouse workers. (author)

  2. Statistical models for competing risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sather, H.N.

    1976-08-01

    Research results on three new models for potential applications in competing risks problems. One section covers the basic statistical relationships underlying the subsequent competing risks model development. Another discusses the problem of comparing cause-specific risk structure by competing risks theory in two homogeneous populations, P1 and P2. Weibull models which allow more generality than the Berkson and Elveback models are studied for the effect of time on the hazard function. The use of concomitant information for modeling single-risk survival is extended to the multiple failure mode domain of competing risks. The model used to illustrate the use of this methodology is a life table model which has constant hazards within pre-designated intervals of the time scale. Two parametric models for bivariate dependent competing risks, which provide interesting alternatives, are proposed and examined

  3. Computational Aspects of Dam Risk Analysis: Findings and Challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ignacio Escuder-Bueno

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, risk analysis techniques have proved to be a useful tool to inform dam safety management. This paper summarizes the outcomes of three themes related to dam risk analysis discussed in the Benchmark Workshops organized by the International Commission on Large Dams Technical Committee on “Computational Aspects of Analysis and Design of Dams.” In the 2011 Benchmark Workshop, estimation of the probability of failure of a gravity dam for the sliding failure mode was discussed. Next, in 2013, the discussion focused on the computational challenges of the estimation of consequences in dam risk analysis. Finally, in 2015, the probability of sliding and overtopping in an embankment was analyzed. These Benchmark Workshops have allowed a complete review of numerical aspects for dam risk analysis, showing that risk analysis methods are a very useful tool to analyze the risk of dam systems, including downstream consequence assessments and the uncertainty of structural models.

  4. Seismic risk analysis in the German risk study phase B

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hasser, D.; Liemersdorf, J.

    1989-01-01

    The paper discusses some aspects of the seismic risk part of the German risk study for nuclear power plants, phase B. First simplified analyses in phase A of the study allowed a rough classification of structures and systems of the PWR reference plant according to their seismic risk contribution. These studies were extended in phase B using improved models for the dynamic analyses of buildings, structures and components as well as for the probabilistic analyses of seismic loading, failure probabilities and event trees. The methodology of deriving probabilistic seismic load descriptions is explained and compared with the methods in phase A of the study and in other studies. Some details of the linear and nonlinear dynamic analyses of structures are reported, in order to demonstrate the influence of different assumptions for material behavior and failure criteria. The probabilistic structural and event tree analyses are discussed with respect to the distribution assumptions, acceptable simplifications, special results for the PWR reference plant and, finally, the influence of model uncertainties

  5. Automating risk analysis of software design models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frydman, Maxime; Ruiz, Guifré; Heymann, Elisa; César, Eduardo; Miller, Barton P

    2014-01-01

    The growth of the internet and networked systems has exposed software to an increased amount of security threats. One of the responses from software developers to these threats is the introduction of security activities in the software development lifecycle. This paper describes an approach to reduce the need for costly human expertise to perform risk analysis in software, which is common in secure development methodologies, by automating threat modeling. Reducing the dependency on security experts aims at reducing the cost of secure development by allowing non-security-aware developers to apply secure development with little to no additional cost, making secure development more accessible. To automate threat modeling two data structures are introduced, identification trees and mitigation trees, to identify threats in software designs and advise mitigation techniques, while taking into account specification requirements and cost concerns. These are the components of our model for automated threat modeling, AutSEC. We validated AutSEC by implementing it in a tool based on data flow diagrams, from the Microsoft security development methodology, and applying it to VOMS, a grid middleware component, to evaluate our model's performance.

  6. Evaluating the risks of clinical research: direct comparative analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rid, Annette; Abdoler, Emily; Roberson-Nay, Roxann; Pine, Daniel S; Wendler, David

    2014-09-01

    Many guidelines and regulations allow children and adolescents to be enrolled in research without the prospect of clinical benefit when it poses minimal risk. However, few systematic methods exist to determine when research risks are minimal. This situation has led to significant variation in minimal risk judgments, raising concern that some children are not being adequately protected. To address this concern, we describe a new method for implementing the widely endorsed "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk. This standard defines research risks as minimal when they do not exceed the risks posed by daily life activities or routine examinations. This study employed a conceptual and normative analysis, and use of an illustrative example. Different risks are composed of the same basic elements: Type, likelihood, and magnitude of harm. Hence, one can compare the risks of research and the risks of daily life by comparing the respective basic elements with each other. We use this insight to develop a systematic method, direct comparative analysis, for implementing the "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk. The method offers a way of evaluating research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities, such as the risk of experiencing anxiety, stress, or other psychological harm. We thus illustrate how direct comparative analysis can be applied in practice by using it to evaluate whether the anxiety induced by a respiratory CO2 challenge poses minimal or greater than minimal risks in children and adolescents. Direct comparative analysis is a systematic method for applying the "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk to research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities. It thereby offers a method to protect children and adolescents in research, while ensuring that important studies are not blocked because of unwarranted concerns about research risks.

  7. Identifying Students at Risk: An Examination of Computer-Adaptive Measures and Latent Class Growth Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller-Margulis, Milena; McQuillin, Samuel D.; Castañeda, Juan Javier; Ochs, Sarah; Jones, John H.

    2018-01-01

    Multitiered systems of support depend on screening technology to identify students at risk. The purpose of this study was to examine the use of a computer-adaptive test and latent class growth analysis (LCGA) to identify students at risk in reading with focus on the use of this methodology to characterize student performance in screening.…

  8. RISK ANALYSIS IN INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY AND COMMUNICATION OUTSOURCING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edmir Parada Vasques Prado

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available This research aims at evaluating the risk analysis process in Information Technology and Communication (ICT outsourcing conducted by organizations of the private sector. The research is characterized by being a descriptive, quantitative and transversal type study, which was used the survey method. Data were collected through questionnaire, the sample is not random and we used a convenience sampling process. The research made contributions to understanding the risk analysis process in ICT services outsourcing, and identified statistically significant relationships between risk analysis, organization's size and its industry, and between risk analysis and diversity of outsourced services

  9. Risk-based decision analysis for groundwater operable units

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiaramonte, G.R.

    1995-01-01

    This document proposes a streamlined approach and methodology for performing risk assessment in support of interim remedial measure (IRM) decisions involving the remediation of contaminated groundwater on the Hanford Site. This methodology, referred to as ''risk-based decision analysis,'' also supports the specification of target cleanup volumes and provides a basis for design and operation of the groundwater remedies. The risk-based decision analysis can be completed within a short time frame and concisely documented. The risk-based decision analysis is more versatile than the qualitative risk assessment (QRA), because it not only supports the need for IRMs, but also provides criteria for defining the success of the IRMs and provides the risk-basis for decisions on final remedies. For these reasons, it is proposed that, for groundwater operable units, the risk-based decision analysis should replace the more elaborate, costly, and time-consuming QRA

  10. A comparative analysis of risk and quality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lynette, Jennifer Elyse

    2017-01-01

    Within the field of emergency management and fire response, risk and quality are conceptualized to some degree in every response effort. Quality is viewed as a relatively new concept within the field of emergency management and fire response. Whereas, within this same field the concept of risk is....... This understanding can serve to facilitate more informed and effective decision making that incorporates both risk and quality before, during, and after emergency events....... independently, decision making and judgement processes have the potential to be positively impacted by furthering research and developing a deeper understanding of these constructs. By understanding risk management principles and combining that with a quality systems approach, decision making can be improved......Within the field of emergency management and fire response, risk and quality are conceptualized to some degree in every response effort. Quality is viewed as a relatively new concept within the field of emergency management and fire response. Whereas, within this same field the concept of risk...

  11. Safety analysis and risk assessment of the National Ignition Facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brereton, S.; McLouth, L.; Odell, B.

    1996-01-01

    The National Ignition Facility (NIF) is a proposed U.S. Department of Energy inertial confinement laser fusion facility. The candidate sites for locating the NIF are: Los Alamos National Laboratory, Sandia National Laboratory, the Nevada Test Site, and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), the preferred site. The NIF will operate by focusing 192 laser beams onto a tiny deuterium-tritium target located at the center of a spherical target chamber. The NIF mission is to achieve inertial confinement fusion (ICF) ignition, access physical conditions in matter of interest to nuclear weapons physics, provide an above ground simulation capability for nuclear weapons effects testing, and contribute to the development of inertial fusion for electrical power production. The NIF has been classified as a radiological, low hazard facility on the basis of a preliminary hazards analysis and according to the DOE methodology for facility classification. This requires that a safety analysis be prepared under DOE Order 5481.1B, Safety Analysis and Review System. A draft Preliminary Safety Analysis Report (PSAR) has been written, and this will be finalized later in 1996. This paper summarizes the safety issues associated with the operation of the NIF and the methodology used to study them. It provides a summary of the methodology, an overview of the hazards, estimates maximum routine and accidental exposures for the preferred site of LLNL, and concludes that the risks from NIF operations are low

  12. 12 CFR 652.100 - Audit of the risk-based capital stress test.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Audit of the risk-based capital stress test... AGRICULTURAL MORTGAGE CORPORATION FUNDING AND FISCAL AFFAIRS Risk-Based Capital Requirements § 652.100 Audit of the risk-based capital stress test. You must have a qualified, independent external auditor review...

  13. Accelerated testing statistical models, test plans, and data analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Nelson, Wayne B

    2009-01-01

    The Wiley-Interscience Paperback Series consists of selected books that have been made more accessible to consumers in an effort to increase global appeal and general circulation. With these new unabridged softcover volumes, Wiley hopes to extend the lives of these works by making them available to future generations of statisticians, mathematicians, and scientists. "". . . a goldmine of knowledge on accelerated life testing principles and practices . . . one of the very few capable of advancing the science of reliability. It definitely belongs in every bookshelf on engineering.""-Dev G.

  14. Risk analysis in transport and logistics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ene Andreea Bianca

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Globalization and production concentration have led to more efficient supply chain networks, which has led to the emergence of different types of risks. Although most companies have implemented special risk management programs, there may be events that can not be controlled by businesses, and unwanted consequences are not delayed.

  15. Applications of probabilistic risk analysis in nuclear criticality safety design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, J.K.

    1992-01-01

    Many documents have been prepared that try to define the scope of the criticality analysis and that suggest adding probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) to the deterministic safety analysis. The report of the US Department of Energy (DOE) AL 5481.1B suggested that an accident is credible if the occurrence probability is >1 x 10 -6 /yr. The draft DOE 5480 safety analysis report suggested that safety analyses should include the application of methods such as deterministic safety analysis, risk assessment, reliability engineering, common-cause failure analysis, human reliability analysis, and human factor safety analysis techniques. The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) report NRC SG830.110 suggested that major safety analysis methods should include but not be limited to risk assessment, reliability engineering, and human factor safety analysis. All of these suggestions have recommended including PRA in the traditional criticality analysis

  16. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

    2016-04-01

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  17. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

    2016-01-01

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  18. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy, E-mail: gasandylang@live.com; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Diponegoro University, Semarang (Indonesia); Kim, Seon Jin [Department of Mechanical & Automotive Engineering of Pukyong National University (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-04-19

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  19. Essays on Systemic Risk : An analysis from multiple perspectives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. Muns (Sander)

    2016-01-01

    markdownabstractThis thesis is about systemic risk in the financial sector. It considers several aspects of systemic risk. It is a building block for an analysis of the impact of systemic risk on the real economy. It appears that stocks in the financial industry show a strong interdependence

  20. Risk analysis for decision support in electricity distribution system asset management: methods and frameworks for analysing intangible risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nordgaard, Dag Eirik

    2010-04-15

    During the last 10 to 15 years electricity distribution companies throughout the world have been ever more focused on asset management as the guiding principle for their activities. Within asset management, risk is a key issue for distribution companies, together with handling of cost and performance. There is now an increased awareness of the need to include risk analyses into the companies' decision making processes. Much of the work on risk in electricity distribution systems has focused on aspects of reliability. This is understandable, since it is surely an important feature of the product delivered by the electricity distribution infrastructure, and it is high on the agenda for regulatory authorities in many countries. However, electricity distribution companies are also concerned with other risks relevant for their decision making. This typically involves intangible risks, such as safety, environmental impacts and company reputation. In contrast to the numerous methodologies developed for reliability risk analysis, there are relatively few applications of structured analyses to support decisions concerning intangible risks, even though they represent an important motivation for decisions taken in electricity distribution companies. The overall objective of this PhD work has been to explore risk analysis methods that can be used to improve and support decision making in electricity distribution system asset management, with an emphasis on the analysis of intangible risks. The main contributions of this thesis can be summarised as: An exploration and testing of quantitative risk analysis (QRA) methods to support decisions concerning intangible risks; The development of a procedure for using life curve models to provide input to QRA models; The development of a framework for risk-informed decision making where QRA are used to analyse selected problems; In addition, the results contribute to clarify the basic concepts of risk, and highlight challenges

  1. Tests of control in the Audit Risk Model : Effective? Efficient?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Blokdijk, J.H. (Hans)

    2004-01-01

    Lately, the Audit Risk Model has been subject to criticism. To gauge its validity, this paper confronts the Audit Risk Model as incorporated in International Standard on Auditing No. 400, with the real life situations faced by auditors in auditing financial statements. This confrontation exposes

  2. Analysis and management of risks experienced in tunnel construction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cagatay Pamukcu

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In this study, first of all, the definitions of "risk", "risk analysis", "risk assessment" and "risk management" were made to avoid any confusions about these terms and significance of risk analysis and management in engineering projects was emphasized. Then, both qualitative and quantitative risk analysis techniques were mentioned and within the scope of the study, Event Tree Analysis method was selected in order to analyze the risks regarding TBM (Tunnel Boring Machine operations in tunnel construction. After all hazards that would be encountered during tunnel construction by TBM method had been investigated, those hazards were undergoing a Preliminary Hazard Analysis to sort out and prioritize the risks with high scores. When the risk scores were taken into consideration, it was seen that the hazards with high risk scores could be classified into 4 groups which are excavation + support induced accidents, accidents stemming from geologic conditions, auxiliary works, and project contract. According to these four classified groups of initiating events, Event Tree Analysis was conducted by taking into care 4 countermeasures apart from each other. Finally, the quantitative and qualitative consequences of Event Tree Analyses, which were undertaken for all initiating events, were investigated and interpreted together by making comparisons and referring to previous studies.

  3. Perception and acceptance of technological risk sources. Volume 2. Empirical analysis of risk perception and acceptance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Renn, O

    1981-01-01

    Volume 2 presents a comparative investigation of risk perception and acceptance. It contains the evaluations of the two experiments in social psychology and the analysis of two intensive inquiries concerning risk perception with a view to 12 different risk sources. The data of the two inquiries were acquired from a total of 200 interview partners in two cities in North-Rhine Westphalia.

  4. Application of risk-based methods to inservice testing of check valves

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Closky, N.B.; Balkey, K.R.; McAllister, W.J. [and others

    1996-12-01

    Research efforts have been underway in the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) and industry to define appropriate methods for the application of risk-based technology in the development of inservice testing (IST) programs for pumps and valves in nuclear steam supply systems. This paper discusses a pilot application of these methods to the inservice testing of check valves in the emergency core cooling system of Georgia Power`s Vogtle nuclear power station. The results of the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) are used to divide the check valves into risk-significant and less-risk-significant groups. This information is reviewed by a plant expert panel along with the consideration of appropriate deterministic insights to finally categorize the check valves into more safety-significant and less safety-significant component groups. All of the more safety-significant check valves are further evaluated in detail using a failure modes and causes analysis (FMCA) to assist in defining effective IST strategies. A template has been designed to evaluate how effective current and emerging tests for check valves are in detecting failures or in finding significant conditions that are precursors to failure for the likely failure causes. This information is then used to design and evaluate appropriate IST strategies that consider both the test method and frequency. A few of the less safety-significant check valves are also evaluated using this process since differences exist in check valve design, function, and operating conditions. Appropriate test strategies are selected for each check valve that has been evaluated based on safety and cost considerations. Test strategies are inferred from this information for the other check valves based on similar check valve conditions. Sensitivity studies are performed using the PSA model to arrive at an overall IST program that maintains or enhances safety at the lowest achievable cost.

  5. Assessment and uncertainty analysis of groundwater risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Fawen; Zhu, Jingzhao; Deng, Xiyuan; Zhao, Yong; Li, Shaofei

    2018-01-01

    Groundwater with relatively stable quantity and quality is commonly used by human being. However, as the over-mining of groundwater, problems such as groundwater funnel, land subsidence and salt water intrusion have emerged. In order to avoid further deterioration of hydrogeological problems in over-mining regions, it is necessary to conduct the assessment of groundwater risk. In this paper, risks of shallow and deep groundwater in the water intake area of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project in Tianjin, China, were evaluated. Firstly, two sets of four-level evaluation index system were constructed based on the different characteristics of shallow and deep groundwater. Secondly, based on the normalized factor values and the synthetic weights, the risk values of shallow and deep groundwater were calculated. Lastly, the uncertainty of groundwater risk assessment was analyzed by indicator kriging method. The results meet the decision maker's demand for risk information, and overcome previous risk assessment results expressed in the form of deterministic point estimations, which ignore the uncertainty of risk assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Method for environmental risk analysis (MIRA) revision 2007

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-04-01

    OLF's instruction manual for carrying out environmental risk analyses provides a united approach and a common framework for environmental risk assessments. This is based on the best information available. The manual implies standardizations of a series of parameters, input data and partial analyses that are included in the environmental risk analysis. Environmental risk analyses carried out according to the MIRA method will thus be comparable between fields and between companies. In this revision an update of the text in accordance with today's practice for environmental risk analyses and prevailing regulations is emphasized. Moreover, method adjustments for especially protected beach habitats have been introduced, as well as a general method for estimating environmental risk concerning fish. Emphasis has also been put on improving environmental risk analysis' possibilities to contribute to a better management of environmental risk in the companies (ml)

  7. Integrated risk analysis of global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shlyakhter, Alexander; Wilson, Richard; Valverde A, L.J. Jr.

    1995-01-01

    This paper discusses several factors that should be considered in integrated risk analyses of global climate change. We begin by describing how the problem of global climate change can be subdivided into largely independent parts that can be linked together in an analytically tractable fashion. Uncertainty plays a central role in integrated risk analyses of global climate change. Accordingly, we consider various aspects of uncertainty as they relate to the climate change problem. We also consider the impacts of these uncertainties on various risk management issues, such as sequential decision strategies, value of information, and problems of interregional and intergenerational equity. (author)

  8. Methodology for risk analysis of nuclear installations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Senne Junior, Murillo; Jordao, Elizabete

    2002-01-01

    Both the licensing standards for general uses in nuclear facilities and the specific ones require a risk assessment during their licensing processes. The risk assessment is carried out through the estimation of both probability of the occurrence of the accident, and their magnitudes. This is a complex task because the great deal of potential hazardous events that can occur in nuclear facilities difficult the statement of the accident scenarios. There are also many available techniques to identify the potential accidents, estimate their probabilities, and evaluate their magnitudes. In this paper is presented a new methodology that systematizes the risk assessment process, and orders the accomplishment of their several steps. (author)

  9. Risk Analysis for Unintentional Slide Deployment During Airline Operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayra, Eduardo S; Insua, David Ríos; Castellanos, María Eugenia; Larbi, Lydia

    2015-09-01

    We present a risk analysis undertaken to mitigate problems in relation to the unintended deployment of slides under normal operations within a commercial airline. This type of incident entails relevant costs for the airline industry. After assessing the likelihood and severity of its consequences, we conclude that such risks need to be managed. We then evaluate the effectiveness of various countermeasures, describing and justifying the chosen ones. We also discuss several issues faced when implementing and communicating the proposed measures, thus fully illustrating the risk analysis process. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  10. Assessment report on NRP sub-theme 'Risk Analysis'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Biesiot, W.; Hendrickx, L.; Olsthoorn, A.A.

    1995-01-01

    An overview and assessment are presented of the three research projects carried out under NRP funding that concern risk-related topics: (1) The risks of nonlinear climate changes, (2) Socio-economic and policy aspects of changes in incidence and intensity of extreme (weather) events, and (3) Characterizing the risks: a comparative analysis of the risks of global warming and of relevant policy strategies. 1 tab., 6 refs

  11. Failure propagation tests and analysis at PNC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tanabe, H.; Miyake, O.; Daigo, Y.; Sato, M.

    1984-01-01

    Failure propagation tests have been conducted using the Large Leak Sodium Water Reaction Test Rig (SWAT-1) and the Steam Generator Safety Test Facility (SWAT-3) at PNC in order to establish the safety design of the LMFBR prototype Monju steam generators. Test objectives are to provide data for selecting a design basis leak (DBL), data on the time history of failure propagations, data on the mechanism of the failures, and data on re-use of tubes in the steam generators that have suffered leaks. Eighteen fundamental tests have been performed in an intermediate leak region using the SWAT-1 test rig, and ten failure propagation tests have been conducted in the region from a small leak to a large leak using the SWAT-3 test facility. From the test results it was concluded that a dominant mechanism was tube wastage, and it took more than one minute until each failure propagation occurred. Also, the total leak rate in full sequence simulation tests including a water dump was far less than that of one double-ended-guillotine (DEG) failure. Using such experimental data, a computer code, LEAP (Leak Enlargement and Propagation), has been developed for the purpose of estimating the possible maximum leak rate due to failure propagation. This paper describes the results of the failure propagation tests and the model structure and validation studies of the LEAP code. (author)

  12. Approach for seismic risk analysis for CANDU plants in Korea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, B-S; Kim, T; Kang, S-K [Korea Power Engineering Co., Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Hong, S-Y; Roh, S-R [Korea Electric Power Corp., Taejon (Korea, Republic of). Research Centre

    1996-12-31

    A seismic risk analysis for CANDU type plants has never been performed. The study presented here suggested that the approach generally applied to LWR type plants could lead to unacceptable result, if directly applied to CANDU plants. This paper presents a modified approach for the seismic risk analysis of CANDU plants. (author). 5 refs., 2 tabs., 2 figs.

  13. Biotechnology; Managing the Risks of Field Testing Genetically Engineered Organisms

    Science.gov (United States)

    1988-06-01

    iSte (t’ I risk Sou Irce rat her thaliaii sIlliply jirol Iibit ing it. Risk-I alanc ing Appuoach lHisk-ha lancing is II ie lii(1 cmi iilly used risk...inely reqIlilt ’S OF it S t(V’tlI&’t 0r 1- tiC 10~-ri NA or-gi- nlisils. As a r-esiult, inl Felwllairy 1 987. viH ix ec nmwnded t hat ap pend ix K< lie

  14. Operational Risk Management A Practical Approach to Intelligent Data Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Kenett, Ron

    2010-01-01

    The book will introduce modern Operational Risk (OpR) Management and illustrates the various sources of OpR assessment and OpR mitigation. This book discusses how various data sources can be integrated and analyzed and how OpR is synergetic to other risk management activities such as Financial Risk Management and Internationalization. The topics will include state of the art technology such as semantic analysis, ontology engineering, data mining and statistical analysis.

  15. Living PRAs [probabilistic risk analysis] made easier with IRRAS [Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russell, K.D.; Sattison, M.B.; Rasmuson, D.M.

    1989-01-01

    The Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) is an integrated PRA software tool that gives the user the ability to create and analyze fault trees and accident sequences using an IBM-compatible microcomputer. This program provides functions that range from graphical fault tree and event tree construction to cut set generation and quantification. IRRAS contains all the capabilities and functions required to create, modify, reduce, and analyze event tree and fault tree models used in the analysis of complex systems and processes. IRRAS uses advanced graphic and analytical techniques to achieve the greatest possible realization of the potential of the microcomputer. When the needs of the user exceed this potential, IRRAS can call upon the power of the mainframe computer. The role of the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory if the IRRAS program is that of software developer and interface to the user community. Version 1.0 of the IRRAS program was released in February 1987 to prove the concept of performing this kind of analysis on microcomputers. This version contained many of the basic features needed for fault tree analysis and was received very well by the PRA community. Since the release of Version 1.0, many user comments and enhancements have been incorporated into the program providing a much more powerful and user-friendly system. This version is designated ''IRRAS 2.0''. Version 3.0 will contain all of the features required for efficient event tree and fault tree construction and analysis. 5 refs., 26 figs

  16. Big Data Risk Analysis for Rail Safety?

    OpenAIRE

    Van Gulijk, Coen; Hughes, Peter; Figueres-Esteban, Miguel; Dacre, Marcus; Harrison, Chris; HUD; RSSB

    2015-01-01

    Computer scientists believe that the enormous amounts of data in the internet will unchain a management revolution of uncanny proportions. Yet, to date, the potential benefit of this revolution is scantily investigated for safety and risk management. This paper gives a brief overview of a research programme that investigates how the new internet-driven data-revolution could benefit safety and risk management for railway safety in the UK. The paper gives a brief overview the current activities...

  17. Value of routine blood tests for prediction of mortality risk in hip fracture patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mosfeldt, Mathias; Pedersen, Ole Birger Vesterager; Riis, Troels

    2012-01-01

    There is a 5- to 8-fold increased risk of mortality during the first 3 months after a hip fracture. Several risk factors are known. We studied the predictive value (for mortality) of routine blood tests taken on admission.......There is a 5- to 8-fold increased risk of mortality during the first 3 months after a hip fracture. Several risk factors are known. We studied the predictive value (for mortality) of routine blood tests taken on admission....

  18. Integrating Household Risk Mitigation Behavior in Flood Risk Analysis: An Agent-Based Model Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haer, Toon; Botzen, W J Wouter; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen C J H

    2017-10-01

    Recent studies showed that climate change and socioeconomic trends are expected to increase flood risks in many regions. However, in these studies, human behavior is commonly assumed to be constant, which neglects interaction and feedback loops between human and environmental systems. This neglect of human adaptation leads to a misrepresentation of flood risk. This article presents an agent-based model that incorporates human decision making in flood risk analysis. In particular, household investments in loss-reducing measures are examined under three economic decision models: (1) expected utility theory, which is the traditional economic model of rational agents; (2) prospect theory, which takes account of bounded rationality; and (3) a prospect theory model, which accounts for changing risk perceptions and social interactions through a process of Bayesian updating. We show that neglecting human behavior in flood risk assessment studies can result in a considerable misestimation of future flood risk, which is in our case study an overestimation of a factor two. Furthermore, we show how behavior models can support flood risk analysis under different behavioral assumptions, illustrating the need to include the dynamic adaptive human behavior of, for instance, households, insurers, and governments. The method presented here provides a solid basis for exploring human behavior and the resulting flood risk with respect to low-probability/high-impact risks. © 2016 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

  19. What Are the Risks and Limitations of Genetic Testing?

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... the person who is tested. The possibility of genetic discrimination in employment or insurance is also a concern. (Refer to What is genetic discrimination? for additional information.) Genetic testing can provide only ...

  20. Project Portfolio Risk Identification and Analysis, Considering Project Risk Interactions and Using Bayesian Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Foroogh Ghasemi

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available An organization’s strategic objectives are accomplished through portfolios. However, the materialization of portfolio risks may affect a portfolio’s sustainable success and the achievement of those objectives. Moreover, project interdependencies and cause–effect relationships between risks create complexity for portfolio risk analysis. This paper presents a model using Bayesian network (BN methodology for modeling and analyzing portfolio risks. To develop this model, first, portfolio-level risks and risks caused by project interdependencies are identified. Then, based on their cause–effect relationships all portfolio risks are organized in a BN. Conditional probability distributions for this network are specified and the Bayesian networks method is used to estimate the probability of portfolio risk. This model was applied to a portfolio of a construction company located in Iran and proved effective in analyzing portfolio risk probability. Furthermore, the model provided valuable information for selecting a portfolio’s projects and making strategic decisions.

  1. Post mitigation impact risk analysis for asteroid deflection demonstration missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eggl, Siegfried; Hestroffer, Daniel; Thuillot, William; Bancelin, David; Cano, Juan L.; Cichocki, Filippo

    2015-08-01

    Even though mankind believes to have the capabilities to avert potentially disastrous asteroid impacts, only the realization of mitigation demonstration missions can validate this claim. Such a deflection demonstration attempt has to be cost effective, easy to validate, and safe in the sense that harmless asteroids must not be turned into potentially hazardous objects. Uncertainties in an asteroid's orbital and physical parameters as well as those additionally introduced during a mitigation attempt necessitate an in depth analysis of deflection mission designs in order to dispel planetary safety concerns. We present a post mitigation impact risk analysis of a list of potential kinetic impactor based deflection demonstration missions proposed in the framework of the NEOShield project. Our results confirm that mitigation induced uncertainties have a significant influence on the deflection outcome. Those cannot be neglected in post deflection impact risk studies. We show, furthermore, that deflection missions have to be assessed on an individual basis in order to ensure that asteroids are not inadvertently transported closer to the Earth at a later date. Finally, we present viable targets and mission designs for a kinetic impactor test to be launched between the years 2025 and 2032.

  2. Analysis of risk factors of pulmonary embolism in diabetic patients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xie Changhui; Ma Zhihai; Zhu Lin; Chi Lianxiang

    2012-01-01

    Objective: To study the related risk factors in diabetic patients with pulmonary embolism (PE). Methods: 58 diabetic cases underwent lower limbs 99m Tc-MAA veins imaging (and/or ultrasonography) and pulmonary perfusion imaging. The related laboratory data [fasting blood glucose (FBG), blood cholesterol, blood long chain triglycerides (LCT)] and clinic information [age, disease courses, chest symptoms (chest pain and short of breathe), lower limbs symptoms (swelling, varicose veins and diabetic foot) and acute complication (diabetic ketoacidosis and hyperosmolar non ketotic diabetic coma)] were collected simultaneously. SPSS was used for χ 2 -test and Logistic regression analysis. Results: (1) 28 patients (48.3%) were showed to be with lower limbs deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and by 99m Tc-MAA imaging, 10 cases (17.2%) with PE. The PE ratios (32.1%) of the patients with DVT was more higher than no DVT (3.3%) (χ 2 =6.53, P 2 ≥4.23, P 2 ≤2.76, P>0.05), respectively. (3) Multiplicity analysis indicated: the related risk factors for PE included chest symptoms (Score=13.316, P=0.000) and lower limbs symptoms (Score=7.780, P=0.005). No significant difference to other factors (Score≤2.494, P>0.114), respectively. Conclusion: The serious DM with chest symptoms, lower limbs symptoms and/or DVT must be controlled as early as possible by all kinds of treatment. It will decrease the PE complication. (authors)

  3. Single-shell tank interim stabilization risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Basche, A.D.

    1998-01-01

    The purpose of the Single-Shell Tank (SST) Interim Stabilization Risk Analysis is to provide a cost and schedule risk analysis of HNF-2358, Rev. 1, Single-Shell Tank Interim Stabilization Project Plan (Project Plan) (Ross et al. 1998). The analysis compares the required cost profile by fiscal year (Section 4.2) and revised schedule completion date (Section 4.5) to the Project Plan. The analysis also evaluates the executability of the Project Plan and recommends a path forward for risk mitigation

  4. What do men understand about lifetime risk following genetic testing? The effect of context and numeracy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rolison, Jonathan J; Hanoch, Yaniv; Miron-Shatz, Talya

    2012-07-01

    Genetic testing for gene mutations associated with specific cancers provides an opportunity for early detection, surveillance, and intervention (Smith, Cokkinides, & Brawley, 2008). Lifetime risk estimates provided by genetic testing refer to the risk of developing a specific disease within one's lifetime, and evidence suggests that this is important for the medical choices people make, as well as their future family and financial plans. The present studies tested whether adult men understand the lifetime risks of prostate cancer informed by genetic testing. In 2 experiments, adult men were asked to interpret the lifetime risk information provided in statements about risks of prostate cancer. Statement format was manipulated such that the most appropriate interpretation of risk statements referred to an absolute risk of cancer in experiment 1 and a relative risk in experiment 2. Experiment 1 revealed that few men correctly interpreted the lifetime risks of cancer when these refer to an absolute risk of cancer, and numeracy levels positively predicted correct responding. The proportion of correct responses was greatly improved in experiment 2 when the most appropriate interpretation of risk statements referred instead to a relative rather than an absolute risk, and numeracy levels were less involved. Understanding of lifetime risk information is often poor because individuals incorrectly believe that these refer to relative rather than absolute risks of cancer.

  5. Improving Test-Taking Performance of Secondary At-Risk Youth and Students with Disabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banks, Tachelle; Eaton, India

    2014-01-01

    Preparing at-risk youth and students with mild disabilities for state and district tests is important for improving their test performance, and basic instruction in test preparation can significantly improve student test performance. The article defines noncognitive variables that adversely affect test-taker performance. The article also describes…

  6. Unipedal stance testing as an indicator of fall risk among older outpatients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurvitz, E A; Richardson, J K; Werner, R A; Ruhl, A M; Dixon, M R

    2000-05-01

    To test the hypothesis that a decreased unipedal stance time (UST) is associated with a history of falling among older persons. Fifty-three subjects underwent a standardized history and physical examination and three trials of timed unipedal stance. The electroneuromyography laboratories of tertiary care Veterans Administration and university hospitals. Ambulatory outpatients 50 years and older referred for electrodiagnostic studies. UST and fall histories during the previous year. Twenty subjects (38%) reported falling. Compared with the subjects who had not fallen, those who fell had a significantly shorter UST (9.6 [SD 11.6] vs 31.3 [SD 16.3] seconds, using the longest of the three trials, p risk of having fallen on univariate analysis and in a regression model (odds ratio 108; 95% confidence interval 3.8, >100; p falls. UST of falling, while a UST of > or = 30sec is associated with a low risk of falling.

  7. Risk analysis of Finnish peacekeeping in Kosovo.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehtomäki, Kyösti; Pääkkönen, Rauno J; Rantanen, Jorma

    2005-04-01

    The research team interviewed over 90 Finnish battalion members in Kosovo, visited 22 units or posts, registered its observations, and made any necessary measurements. Key persons were asked to list the most important risks for occupational safety and health in their area of responsibility. Altogether, 106 accidents and 40 cases of disease resulted in compensation claims in 2000. The risks to the peacekeeping force were about twice those of the permanent staff of military trainees in Finland. Altogether, 21 accidents or cases of disease resulted in sick leave for at least 3 months after service. One permanent injury resulted from an explosion. Biological, chemical, and physical factors caused 8 to 9 occupational illnesses each. Traffic accidents, operational factors, and munitions and mines were evaluated to be the three most important risk factors, followed by occupational hygiene, living conditions (mold, fungi, dust), and general hygiene. Possible fatal risks, such as traffic accidents and munitions and explosives, received a high ranking in both the subjective and the objective evaluations. One permanent injury resulted from an explosion, and two traffic accidents involved a fatality, although not of a peacekeeper. The reduction of sports and military training accidents, risk-control programs, and, for some tasks, better personal protection is considered a development challenge for the near future.

  8. The Effects of Variability and Risk in Selection Utility Analysis: An Empirical Comparison.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rich, Joseph R.; Boudreau, John W.

    1987-01-01

    Investigated utility estimate variability for the selection utility of using the Programmer Aptitude Test to select computer programmers. Comparison of Monte Carlo results to other risk assessment approaches (sensitivity analysis, break-even analysis, algebraic derivation of the distribtion) suggests that distribution information provided by Monte…

  9. DRAM fault analysis and test generation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Al-Ars, Z.

    2005-01-01

    Dynamic random access memories (DRAMs) are the most widely used type of memory in the market today, due to their important application as the main memory of the personal computer (PC). These memories are tested by their manufacturers in an ad hoc way, that results in an expensive test process the

  10. Analysis of the Rapid Chloride Migration test

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Spiesz, P.R.; Ballari, M.; Brouwers, H.J.H.; Ferreira, R. M.; Gulikers, J.; Andrade, C.

    2009-01-01

    In this study the Rapid Chloride Migration test (RCM) standardized as NT Build 492 and BAW-Merkblatt is reviewed. Since the traditional natural diffusion tests are laborious, time consuming and costly, they are not always preferred from a practical point of view. To overcome these disadvantages,

  11. Design and analysis of multiaxial creep tests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mallett, R.H.; Dhalla, A.K.; Yocolano, J.T.

    1974-01-01

    A procedure is described for presenting the complete data as obtained from tests of thin-walled tubular creep test specimens. Thereafter, a procedure for processing the data is presented. The processed data is based in part upon results of detailed inelastic finite element analyses performed to determine uniform and constant stress quantities and effective gage lengths. (U.S.)

  12. Risk Analysis for the Different Consolidation Proposals

    CERN Document Server

    Strait, J

    2009-01-01

    In parallel with the repairs in sector 34, improvements are planned to a number of systems, to allow safe detection of faults similar to the one which caused the incident of 19 September, and to limit the damage should a similar incident nonetheless occur. These include improved bus and quench detection systems, improved pressure relief for the insulating and beam vacuum systems, and improved anchoring of the SSS to the tunnel floor. Not all of the planned mitigations, however, may be fully implemented before the restart of the LHC in 2009. I will review the potential benefits of partial or complete implementation of each of the planned improvements, individually or together with others, and conversely the potential risks (consequences) of delayed implementation. I will also review the risks that remain even after the planned consolidation is complete. Considering all proposals and the different risks, I will comment on what would be the best strategy for consolidation, and on the strategy for operations unde...

  13. The Total Risk Analysis of Large Dams under Flood Hazards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Chen

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Dams and reservoirs are useful systems in water conservancy projects; however, they also pose a high-risk potential for large downstream areas. Flood, as the driving force of dam overtopping, is the main cause of dam failure. Dam floods and their risks are of interest to researchers and managers. In hydraulic engineering, there is a growing tendency to evaluate dam flood risk based on statistical and probabilistic methods that are unsuitable for the situations with rare historical data or low flood probability, so a more reasonable dam flood risk analysis method with fewer application restrictions is needed. Therefore, different from previous studies, this study develops a flood risk analysis method for large dams based on the concept of total risk factor (TRF used initially in dam seismic risk analysis. The proposed method is not affected by the adequacy of historical data or the low probability of flood and is capable of analyzing the dam structure influence, the flood vulnerability of the dam site, and downstream risk as well as estimating the TRF of each dam and assigning corresponding risk classes to each dam. Application to large dams in the Dadu River Basin, Southwestern China, demonstrates that the proposed method provides quick risk estimation and comparison, which can help local management officials perform more detailed dam safety evaluations for useful risk management information.

  14. Risk Analysis for Environmental Health Triage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bogen, K T

    2005-01-01

    The Homeland Security Act mandates development of a national, risk-based system to support planning for, response to and recovery from emergency situations involving large-scale toxic exposures. To prepare for and manage consequences effectively, planners and responders need not only to identify zones of potentially elevated individual risk, but also to predict expected casualties. Emergency response support systems now define ''consequences'' by mapping areas in which toxic chemical concentrations do or may exceed Acute Exposure Guideline Levels (AEGLs) or similar guidelines. However, because AEGLs do not estimate expected risks, current unqualified claims that such maps support consequence management are misleading. Intentionally protective, AEGLs incorporate various safety/uncertainty factors depending on scope and quality of chemical-specific toxicity data. Some of these factors are irrelevant, and others need to be modified, whenever resource constraints or exposure-scenario complexities require responders to make critical trade-off (triage) decisions in order to minimize expected casualties. AEGL-exceedance zones cannot consistently be aggregated, compared, or used to calculate expected casualties, and so may seriously misguide emergency response triage decisions. Methods and tools well established and readily available to support environmental health protection are not yet developed for chemically related environmental health triage. Effective triage decisions involving chemical risks require a new assessment approach that focuses on best estimates of likely casualties, rather than on upper plausible bounds of individual risk. If risk-based consequence management is to become a reality, federal agencies tasked with supporting emergency response must actively coordinate to foster new methods that can support effective environmental health triage

  15. Risk analysis: divergent models and convergent interpretations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carnes, B. A.; Gavrilova, N.

    2001-01-01

    Material presented at a NASA-sponsored workshop on risk models for exposure conditions relevant to prolonged space flight are described in this paper. Analyses used mortality data from experiments conducted at Argonne National Laboratory on the long-term effects of external whole-body irradiation on B6CF1 mice by 60Co gamma rays and fission neutrons delivered as a single exposure or protracted over either 24 or 60 once-weekly exposures. The maximum dose considered was restricted to 1 Gy for neutrons and 10 Gy for gamma rays. Proportional hazard models were used to investigate the shape of the dose response at these lower doses for deaths caused by solid-tissue tumors and tumors of either connective or epithelial tissue origin. For protracted exposures, a significant mortality effect was detected at a neutron dose of 14 cGy and a gamma-ray dose of 3 Gy. For single exposures, radiation-induced mortality for neutrons also occurred within the range of 10-20 cGy, but dropped to 86 cGy for gamma rays. Plots of risk relative to control estimated for each observed dose gave a visual impression of nonlinearity for both neutrons and gamma rays. At least for solid-tissue tumors, male and female mortality was nearly identical for gamma-ray exposures, but mortality risks for females were higher than for males for neutron exposures. As expected, protracting the gamma-ray dose reduced mortality risks. Although curvature consistent with that observed visually could be detected by a model parameterized to detect curvature, a relative risk term containing only a simple term for total dose was usually sufficient to describe the dose response. Although detectable mortality for the three pathology end points considered typically occurred at the same level of dose, the highest risks were almost always associated with deaths caused by tumors of epithelial tissue origin.

  16. Stress Analysis in Managing the Region’s Budget Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalya Pavlovna Pazdnikova

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The article addresses the implementation of budget risk management methods into the practices of governmental authorities. Drawing on the example of a particular region the article aims to demonstrate the possible methods of budget risk management. The authors refine the existing approaches to the notion of risk in its relation to budget system by introducing the notion of “budget risk.” Here the focus is the risk of default of budget spending in full which causes underfunding of territories and decrease in quality of life in the region. The authors have particularized the classification of budget risks and grouped together the criteria and factors which significantly influence the assessment and choice of method to manage budget risks. They hypothesize that budget risk is a financial risk. Therefore, the methods of financial risks management can be applied to budget risks management. The authors suggest a methodological approach to risk assessment based on correlation and regression analysis of program financing. The application of Kendall rank correlation coefficient allowed to assess the efficiency of budget spending on the implementation of state programs in Perm Krai. Two clusters — “Nature management and infrastructure” and “Public security” — turned out to be in the zone of high budget risk. The method of stress analysis, which consists in calculating Value at Risk (VaR, was applied to budget risks that in terms of probability are classified as critical. In order to assess risk as probability rate, the amount of Perm Krai deficit budget was calculated as induced variable from budget revenues and spending. The results demonstrate that contemporary management of public resources in the regions calls for the implementation of new management tools of higher quality and budget risk management is one of them.

  17. Well test analysis in fractured media

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karasaki, K.

    1987-04-01

    The behavior of fracture systems under well test conditions and methods for analyzing well test data from fractured media are investigated. Several analytical models are developed to be used for analyzing well test data from fractured media. Numerical tools that may be used to simulate fluid flow in fractured media are also presented. Three types of composite models for constant flux tests are investigated. These models are based on the assumption that a fracture system under well test conditions may be represented by two concentric regions, one representing a small number of fractures that dominates flow near the well, and the other representing average conditions farther away from the well. Type curves are presented that can be used to find the flow parameters of these two regions and the extent of the inner concentric region. Several slug test models with different geometric conditions that may be present in fractured media are also investigated. A finite element model that can simulate transient fluid flow in fracture networks is used to study the behavior of various two-dimensional fracture systems under well test conditions. A mesh generator that can be used to model mass and heat flow in a fractured-porous media is presented.

  18. Using GIFTS on the Cray-1 for the large coil test facility test: stand design analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baudry, T.V.; Gray, W.H.

    1981-06-01

    The GIFTS finite element program has been used extensively throughout the Large Coil Test Facility (LCTF) test stand design analysis. Effective use has been made of GIFTS both as a preprocessor to other finite element programs and as a complete structural analysis package. The LCTF test stand design involved stress analysis ranging from simple textbook-type problems to very complicated three-dimensional structural problems. Two areas of the design analysis are discussed

  19. Finite Element Analysis and Test Results Comparison for the Hybrid Wing Body Center Section Test Article

    Science.gov (United States)

    Przekop, Adam; Jegley, Dawn C.; Rouse, Marshall; Lovejoy, Andrew E.

    2016-01-01

    This report documents the comparison of test measurements and predictive finite element analysis results for a hybrid wing body center section test article. The testing and analysis efforts were part of the Airframe Technology subproject within the NASA Environmentally Responsible Aviation project. Test results include full field displacement measurements obtained from digital image correlation systems and discrete strain measurements obtained using both unidirectional and rosette resistive gauges. Most significant results are presented for the critical five load cases exercised during the test. Final test to failure after inflicting severe damage to the test article is also documented. Overall, good comparison between predicted and actual behavior of the test article is found.

  20. Testing the impact on natural risks' awareness of visual communication through an exhibition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charrière, Marie; Bogaard, Thom; Junier, Sandra; Malet, Jean-Philippe; Mostert, Erik

    2014-05-01

    risk and demographics. In addition, the post-test included several satisfaction questions concerning the visual tools displayed in the exhibition. A statistical analysis of the changes between the pre- and post- tests allows to verify whether the exhibition has an impact on risk awareness or not. In order to deduce the attractiveness of each visual tool independently, the visitors' paths are tracked using RFID (Radio Frequency Identification) technique, from which their time spent around certain visuals can be assessed. These results also help to analyze the changes in risk awareness measured by the pre-test/post-test design. Direct observation of visitors' reactions and behaviors completed the methodology. This research hence helps to assess which visual tools are more suitable to communicate such topics not only to a community as a whole, but also to its sub-categories (e.g. adults vs. children, people with experience of natural disasters vs. people without). Moreover, it provides methodological improvements concerning effectiveness research in the field of risk communication. The first results of this research will be presented and discussed.

  1. Test and cull of high risk Coxiella burnetii infected pregnant dairy goats is not feasible due to poor test performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hogerwerf, Lenny; Koop, Gerrit; Klinkenberg, Don; Roest, Hendrik I J; Vellema, Piet; Nielen, Mirjam

    2014-05-01

    A major human Q fever epidemic occurred in The Netherlands during 2007-2009. In response, all pregnant goats from infected herds were culled before the 2010 kidding season without individual testing. The aim of this study was to assess whether high risk animals from recently infected naive herds can be identified by diagnostic testing. Samples of uterine fluid, milk and vaginal mucus from 203 euthanized pregnant goats were tested by PCR or ELISA. The results suggest that testing followed by culling of only the high risk animals is not a feasible method for protecting public health, mainly due to the low specificity of the tests and variability between herds. The risk of massive bacterial shedding during abortion or parturition can only be prevented by removal of all pregnant animals from naive recently infected herds. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Modeling issues in nuclear plant fire risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siu, N.

    1989-01-01

    This paper discusses various issues associated with current models for analyzing the risk due to fires in nuclear power plants. Particular emphasis is placed on the fire growth and suppression models, these being unique to the fire portion of the overall risk analysis. Potentially significant modeling improvements are identified; also discussed are a variety of modeling issues where improvements will help the credibility of the analysis, without necessarily changing the computed risk significantly. The mechanistic modeling of fire initiation is identified as a particularly promising improvement for reducing the uncertainties in the predicted risk. 17 refs., 5 figs. 2 tabs

  3. LDC commodity risk analysis and recommendations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-01-01

    Under the current operation of the new competitive electricity market in Ontario, local distribution companies (LDCs) are required to pay the monthly invoice of the Independent Market Operator (IMO) before they collect from end-users for the consumption period covered by the invoice, with no clear guarantee that the recovery will occur. This situation creates a major cash flow problem and financial risk for LDCs and threatens the integrity and stability of the electricity market. This paper described 3 features of Ontario's competitive electricity market that create financial and commodity risk. The first problem is that there is no limit on how high prices can rise. Increases in wholesale commodity prices can result in a situation where the amount of the IMO's invoice is greater than the LDC's ability to pay at the time of receipt. Secondly, the LDC bears a 100 per cent payment obligation to the IMO administrator of the wholesale market. The third problem is that LDCs bear payment default risk from all consumers in the Ontario market, including electricity retailers. This paper presents some specific policy solutions that can protect the market from this threat. It was suggested that in order to protect the integrity of Ontario's electricity market during high prices, a policy must be drafted to address the commodity price financing risk (CPFR) issue. The policy must also define what happens if prices increase past the LDCs financing obligation limit. tabs., figs

  4. Risk Analysis and Security Countermeasure Selection

    CERN Document Server

    Norman, Thomas L

    2009-01-01

    Explains how to evaluate the appropriateness of security countermeasures, from a cost-effectiveness perspective. This title guides readers from basic principles to complex processes in a step-by-step fashion, evaluating DHS-approved risk assessment methods, including CARVER, API/NPRA, RAMCAP, and various Sandia methodologies

  5. The relationship between risk attitude and strength of preference: A test of intrinsic risk attitude

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A. Smidts (Ale)

    1997-01-01

    textabstractIn a field study, the concept of intrinsic, risk attitude is investigated. Intrinsic risk attitude concerns the relationship between risk attitude, measured by the utility function u(x), and strength of preference, measured by the value function v(x). We study farmers' decision-making

  6. How to Perform an Ethical Risk Analysis (eRA).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansson, Sven Ove

    2018-02-26

    Ethical analysis is often needed in the preparation of policy decisions on risk. A three-step method is proposed for performing an ethical risk analysis (eRA). In the first step, the people concerned are identified and categorized in terms of the distinct but compatible roles of being risk-exposed, a beneficiary, or a decisionmaker. In the second step, a more detailed classification of roles and role combinations is performed, and ethically problematic role combinations are identified. In the third step, further ethical deliberation takes place, with an emphasis on individual risk-benefit weighing, distributional analysis, rights analysis, and power analysis. Ethical issues pertaining to subsidiary risk roles, such as those of experts and journalists, are also treated in this phase. An eRA should supplement, not replace, a traditional risk analysis that puts emphasis on the probabilities and severities of undesirable events but does not cover ethical issues such as agency, interpersonal relationships, and justice. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

  7. Well test analysis in fractured media

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karasaki, K.

    1986-04-01

    In this study the behavior of fracture systems under well test conditions and methods for analyzing well test data from fractured media are investigated. Several analytical models are developed to be used for analyzing well test data from fractured media. Numerical tools that may be used to simulate fluid flow in fractured media are also presented. Three types of composite models for constant flux tests are investigated. Several slug test models with different geometric conditions that may be present in fractured media are also investigated. A finite element model that can simulate transient fluid flow in fracture networks is used to study the behavior of various two-dimensional fracture systems under well test conditions. A mesh generator that can be used to model mass and heat flow in a fractured-porous media is presented. This model develops an explicit solution in the porous matrix as well as in the discrete fractures. Because the model does not require the assumptions of the conventional double porosity approach, it may be used to simulate cases where double porosity models fail.

  8. Chronic disease risk management: Combining genetic testing with ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Nutrigenetics has been used for decades to prevent rare monogenic disorders such as phenylketonuria. Gene-diet interaction can now also be targeted to prevent or reduce the risk of many chronic conditions long before clinical manifestation. This multidisciplinary approach unites conventional medicine with genetics and ...

  9. Integrated testing strategies can be optimal for chemical risk classification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raseta, Marko; Pitchford, Jon; Cussens, James; Doe, John

    2017-08-01

    There is an urgent need to refine strategies for testing the safety of chemical compounds. This need arises both from the financial and ethical costs of animal tests, but also from the opportunities presented by new in-vitro and in-silico alternatives. Here we explore the mathematical theory underpinning the formulation of optimal testing strategies in toxicology. We show how the costs and imprecisions of the various tests, and the variability in exposures and responses of individuals, can be assembled rationally to form a Markov Decision Problem. We compute the corresponding optimal policies using well developed theory based on Dynamic Programming, thereby identifying and overcoming some methodological and logical inconsistencies which may exist in the current toxicological testing. By illustrating our methods for two simple but readily generalisable examples we show how so-called integrated testing strategies, where information of different precisions from different sources is combined and where different initial test outcomes lead to different sets of future tests, can arise naturally as optimal policies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. The approach to risk analysis in three industries: nuclear power, space systems, and chemical process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garrick, B.J.

    1988-01-01

    The aerospace, nuclear power, and chemical processing industries are providing much of the incentive for the development and application of advanced risk analysis techniques to engineered systems. Risk analysis must answer three basic questions: What can go wrong? How likely is it? and What are the consequences? The result of such analyses is not only a quantitative answer to the question of 'What is the risk', but, more importantly, a framework for intelligent and visible risk management. Because of the societal importance of the subject industries and the amount of risk analysis activity involved in each, it is interesting to look for commonalities, differences, and, hopefully, a basis for some standardization. Each industry has its strengths: the solid experience base of the chemical industry, the extensive qualification and testing procedures of the space industry, and the integrative and quantitative risk and reliability methodologies developed for the nuclear power industry. In particular, most advances in data handling, systems interaction modeling, and uncertainty analysis have come from the probabilistic risk assessment work in the nuclear safety field. In the final analysis, all three industries would greatly benefit from a more deliberate technology exchange program in the rapidly evolving discipline of quantitative risk analysis. (author)

  11. Flood Risk Assessment Based On Security Deficit Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beck, J.; Metzger, R.; Hingray, B.; Musy, A.

    Risk is a human perception: a given risk may be considered as acceptable or unac- ceptable depending on the group that has to face that risk. Flood risk analysis of- ten estimates economic losses from damages, but neglects the question of accept- able/unacceptable risk. With input from land use managers, politicians and other stakeholders, risk assessment based on security deficit analysis determines objects with unacceptable risk and their degree of security deficit. Such a risk assessment methodology, initially developed by the Swiss federal authorities, is illustrated by its application on a reach of the Alzette River (Luxembourg) in the framework of the IRMA-SPONGE FRHYMAP project. Flood risk assessment always involves a flood hazard analysis, an exposed object vulnerability analysis, and an analysis combing the results of these two previous analyses. The flood hazard analysis was done with the quasi-2D hydraulic model FldPln to produce flood intensity maps. Flood intensity was determined by the water height and velocity. Object data for the vulnerability analysis, provided by the Luxembourg government, were classified according to their potential damage. Potential damage is expressed in terms of direct, human life and secondary losses. A thematic map was produced to show the object classification. Protection goals were then attributed to the object classes. Protection goals are assigned in terms of an acceptable flood intensity for a certain flood frequency. This is where input from land use managers and politicians comes into play. The perception of risk in the re- gion or country influences the protection goal assignment. Protection goals as used in Switzerland were used in this project. Thematic maps showing the protection goals of each object in the case study area for a given flood frequency were produced. Com- parison between an object's protection goal and the intensity of the flood that touched the object determine the acceptability of the risk and the

  12. On the validation of risk analysis-A commentary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosqvist, Tony

    2010-01-01

    Aven and Heide (2009) [1] provided interesting views on the reliability and validation of risk analysis. The four validation criteria presented are contrasted with modelling features related to the relative frequency-based and Bayesian approaches to risk analysis. In this commentary I would like to bring forth some issues on validation that partly confirm and partly suggest changes in the interpretation of the introduced validation criteria-especially, in the context of low probability-high consequence systems. The mental model of an expert in assessing probabilities is argued to be a key notion in understanding the validation of a risk analysis.

  13. Interim guidance risk assessment of the device assembly facility at the Nevada test site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Altenbach, T.J.

    1996-05-01

    The risks of plutonium dispersal and/or high explosive detonation from nuclear explosive operations at the Device Assembly Facility were examined in accordance with DOE Order 5610.11 and the Interim Guidance. The assessment consisted of a qualitative task and hazards analysis, and a quantitative risk screening. Results are displayed on risk matrices for the major types of operations. Most accident scenarios were considered to have Low risk; a few scenarios have Moderate risk; and none have High risk. The highest risk scenarios (Moderate category) consist of a high explosive detonation during assembly operations in a cell, with bare conventional high explosive surrounding the pit

  14. Bremsstrahlung converter debris shields: test and analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reedy, E.D. Jr.; Perry, F.C.

    1983-10-01

    Electron beam accelerators are commonly used to create bremsstrahlung x-rays for effects testing. Typically, the incident electron beam strikes a sandwich of three materials: (1) a conversion foil, (2) an electron scavenger, and (3) a debris shield. Several laboratories, including Sandia National Laboratories, are developing bremsstrahlung x-ray sources with much larger test areas (approx. 200 to 500 cm 2 ) than ever used before. Accordingly, the debris shield will be much larger than before and subject to loads which could cause shield failure. To prepare for this eventuality, a series of tests were run on the Naval Surface Weapons Center's Casino electron beam accelerator (approx. 1 MeV electrons, 100 ns FWHM pulse, 45 kJ beam energy). The primary goal of these tests was to measure the stress pulse which loads a debris shield. These measurements were made with carbon gages mounted on the back of the converter sandwich. At an electron beam fluence of about 1 kJ/cm 2 , the measured peak compressive stress was typically in the 1 to 2 kbar range. Measured peak compressive stress scaled in a roughly linear manner with fluence level as the fluence level was increased to 10 kJ/cm 2 . The duration of the compressive pulse was on the order of microseconds. In addition to the stress wave measurements, a limited number of tests were made to investigate the type of damage generated in several potential shield materials

  15. Quantitative risk analysis for landslides ‒ Examples from Bíldudalur, NW-Iceland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Bell

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Although various methods to carry out quantitative landslide risk analyses are available, applications are still rare and mostly dependent on the occurrence of disasters. In Iceland, two catastrophic snow avalanches killed 34 people in 1995. As a consequence the Ministry of the Environment issued a new regulation on hazard zoning due to snow avalanches and landslides in 2000, which aims to prevent people living or working within the areas most at risk until 2010. The regulation requires to carry out landslide and snow avalanche risk analyses, however, a method to calculate landslide risk adopted to Icelandic conditions is still missing. Therefore, the ultimate goal of this study is to develop such a method for landslides, focussing on debris flows and rock falls and to test it in Bíldudalur, NW-Iceland. Risk analysis, beside risk evaluation and risk management, is part of the holistic concept of risk assessment. Within this study, risk analysis is considered only, focussing on the risks to life. To calculate landslide risk, the spatial and temporal probability of occurrence of potential damaging events, as well as the distribution of the elements at risk in space and time, considering also changing vulnerabilities, must be determined. Within this study, a new raster-based approach is developed. Thus, all existent vector data are transferred into raster data using a resolution of 1m x 1m. The specific attribute data are attributed to the grid cells, resulting in specific raster data layers for each input parameter. The calculation of the landslide risk follows a function of the input parameters hazard, damage potential of the elements at risk, vulnerability, probability of the spatial impact, probability of the temporal impact and probability of the seasonal occurrence. Finally, results are upscaled to a resolution of 20m x 20m and are presented as individual risk to life and object risk to life for each process. Within the quantitative

  16. Risk analysis methodologies for the transportation of radioactive materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Geffen, C.A.

    1983-05-01

    Different methodologies have evolved for consideration of each of the many steps required in performing a transportation risk analysis. Although there are techniques that attempt to consider the entire scope of the analysis in depth, most applications of risk assessment to the transportation of nuclear fuel cycle materials develop specific methodologies for only one or two parts of the analysis. The remaining steps are simplified for the analyst by narrowing the scope of the effort (such as evaluating risks for only one material, or a particular set of accident scenarios, or movement over a specific route); performing a qualitative rather than a quantitative analysis (probabilities may be simply ranked as high, medium or low, for instance); or assuming some generic, conservative conditions for potential release fractions and consequences. This paper presents a discussion of the history and present state-of-the-art of transportation risk analysis methodologies. Many reports in this area were reviewed as background for this presentation. The literature review, while not exhaustive, did result in a complete representation of the major methods used today in transportation risk analysis. These methodologies primarily include the use of severity categories based on historical accident data, the analysis of specifically assumed accident sequences for the transportation activity of interest, and the use of fault or event tree analysis. Although the focus of this work has generally been on potential impacts to public groups, some effort has been expended in the estimation of risks to occupational groups in transportation activities

  17. Final safety and hazards analysis for the Battelle LOCA simulation tests in the NRU reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Axford, D.J.; Martin, I.C.; McAuley, S.J.

    1981-04-01

    This is the final safety and hazards report for the proposed Battelle LOCA simulation tests in NRU. A brief description of equipment test design and operating procedure precedes a safety analysis and hazards review of the project. The hazards review addresses potential equipment failures as well as potential for a metal/water reaction and evaluates the consequences. The operation of the tests as proposed does not present an unacceptable risk to the NRU Reactor, CRNL personnel or members of the public. (author)

  18. Risk analysis of complex hydrogen infrastructures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Markert, Frank; Marangon, Alessia; Carcassi, Marco

    2015-01-01

    Developing a future sustainable refuelling station network is the next important step to establish hydrogen as a fuel for vehicles and related services. Such stations will most likely be integrated in existing refuelling stations and result in multi-fuel storages with a variety of fuels being...... to improve the quality of biomass based fuels. Therefore, hydrogen supply and distribution chains will likely not only serve to fulfil the demands of refuelling, but may also be important for the wider electrical power and fuel industries. Based on an integrated hydrogen supply and distribution network...... assessment methodologies, and how functional models could support coherent risk and sustainability (Risk Assessment, Life Cycle Assessment /Life Cycle Costing) assessments, in order to find optimal solutions for the development of the infrastructure on a regional or national level....

  19. Acceptance of HIV testing among women attending antenatal care in south-western Uganda: risk factors and reasons for test refusal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dahl, V; Mellhammar, L; Bajunirwe, F; Björkman, P

    2008-07-01

    A problem commonly encountered in programs for prevention of mother-to-child-transmission (PMTCT) of HIV in sub-Saharan Africa is low rates of HIV test acceptance among pregnant women. In this study, we examined risk factors and reasons for HIV test refusal among 432 women attending three antenatal care clinics offering PMTCT in urban and semi-urban parts of the Mbarara district, Uganda. Structured interviews were performed following pre-test counselling. Three-hundred-eighty women were included in the study, 323 (85%) of whom accepted HIV testing. In multivariate analysis, testing site (Site A: OR = 1.0; Site B: OR = 3.08; 95%CI: 1.12-8.46; Site C: OR = 5.93; 95%CI: 2.94-11.98), age between 30 and 34 years (refusal. Testing sites operating for longer durations had higher rates of acceptance. The most common reasons claimed for test refusal were: lack of access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV-infected women (88%; n=57), a need to discuss with partner before decision (82%; n=57) and fear of partner's reaction (54%; n=57). Comparison with previous periods showed that the acceptance rate increased with the duration of the program. Our study identified risk factors for HIV test refusal among pregnant women in Uganda and common reasons for not accepting testing. These findings may suggest modifications and improvements in the performance of HIV testing in this and similar populations.

  20. Analysis of power system collapse risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eleschova, Z.; Belan, A.; Cintula, B.; Smitkova, M.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper are analysed the initialization events with considering different scenarios and their impact on the power system transient stability. As an initialization event is considered a short circuit at various places of power line. In each scenario are considered protection failures (backup protection), circuit-breaker failures (breaker failure relay activation). The individual states are analysed and the power system collapse risk assessed based on the simulation experiments results (Authors)

  1. Bayesian-network-based safety risk analysis in construction projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Limao; Wu, Xianguo; Skibniewski, Miroslaw J.; Zhong, Jingbing; Lu, Yujie

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a systemic decision support approach for safety risk analysis under uncertainty in tunnel construction. Fuzzy Bayesian Networks (FBN) is used to investigate causal relationships between tunnel-induced damage and its influential variables based upon the risk/hazard mechanism analysis. Aiming to overcome limitations on the current probability estimation, an expert confidence indicator is proposed to ensure the reliability of the surveyed data for fuzzy probability assessment of basic risk factors. A detailed fuzzy-based inference procedure is developed, which has a capacity of implementing deductive reasoning, sensitivity analysis and abductive reasoning. The “3σ criterion” is adopted to calculate the characteristic values of a triangular fuzzy number in the probability fuzzification process, and the α-weighted valuation method is adopted for defuzzification. The construction safety analysis progress is extended to the entire life cycle of risk-prone events, including the pre-accident, during-construction continuous and post-accident control. A typical hazard concerning the tunnel leakage in the construction of Wuhan Yangtze Metro Tunnel in China is presented as a case study, in order to verify the applicability of the proposed approach. The results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed approach and its application potential. A comparison of advantages and disadvantages between FBN and fuzzy fault tree analysis (FFTA) as risk analysis tools is also conducted. The proposed approach can be used to provide guidelines for safety analysis and management in construction projects, and thus increase the likelihood of a successful project in a complex environment. - Highlights: • A systemic Bayesian network based approach for safety risk analysis is developed. • An expert confidence indicator for probability fuzzification is proposed. • Safety risk analysis progress is extended to entire life cycle of risk-prone events. • A typical

  2. Environmental risk assessment in GMO analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pirondini, Andrea; Marmiroli, Nelson

    2010-01-01

    Genetically modified or engineered organisms (GMOs, GEOs) are utilised in agriculture, expressing traits of interest, such as insect or herbicide resistance. Soybean, maize, cotton and oilseed rape are the GM crops with the largest acreage in the world. The distribution of GM acreage in the different countries is related with the different positions concerning labelling of GMO products: based on the principle of substantial equivalence, or rather based on the precautionary principle. The paper provides an overview on how the risks associated with release of GMO in the environments can be analysed and predicted, in view of a possible coexistence of GM and non-GM organisms in agriculture.Risk assessment procedures, both qualitative and quantitative, are compared in the context of application to GMOs considering also legislation requirements (Directive 2001/18/EC). Criteria and measurable properties to assess harm for human health and environmental safety are listed, and the possible consequences are evaluated in terms of significance.Finally, a mapping of the possible risks deriving from GMO release is reported, focusing on gene transfer to related species, horizontal gene transfer, direct and indirect effects on non target organisms, development of resistance in target organisms, and effects on biodiversity.

  3. The Comparison of Falling Risk of Elderly by Speed Gait Test Under Dual Tasks Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zahra Fathi Rezaie

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: This study aimed to compare elderly fallers and non fallers by balance test under dual tasks conditions. Methods & Materials: This study was a analyse-comparative study. Subjects were chosen from three parks of Tehran. Subjects were 20 older adults with no history of falls (aged 72.60±5 years and 21 older adults with a history of 2 or more falls in the last one year (aged 74.50±6 Years. All subjects performed speed gait test under 3 conditions (speed gait, speed gait with numbers counter randomly [speed gait cognitive], and speed gait while carrying a full cup of water [speed gait manual]. Data was analysed from multivariate analysis with SPSS 17. Results: The results showed significant difference between elderly fallers and non fallers in fall risk composed dependent variable (P=0.0005, as the non fallers had greater score than elderly fallers. Conclusion: Consequently, we can apply the Gait Speed test under both dual task conditions (Cognitive and Motor for identification of risk of falling in elderly adults with and without of falling history.

  4. Interest in genomic SNP testing for prostate cancer risk: a pilot survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Michael J; Ruth, Karen J; Chen, David Yt; Gross, Laura M; Giri, Veda N

    2015-01-01

    Advancements in genomic testing have led to the identification of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with prostate cancer. The clinical utility of SNP tests to evaluate prostate cancer risk is unclear. Studies have not examined predictors of interest in novel genomic SNP tests for prostate cancer risk in a diverse population. Consecutive participants in the Fox Chase Prostate Cancer Risk Assessment Program (PRAP) (n = 40) and unselected men from surgical urology clinics (n = 40) completed a one-time survey. Items examined interest in genomic SNP testing for prostate cancer risk, knowledge, impact of unsolicited findings, and psychosocial factors including health literacy. Knowledge of genomic SNP tests was low in both groups, but interest was higher among PRAP men (p testing in both groups. Multivariable modeling identified several predictors of higher interest in a genomic SNP test including higher perceived risk (p = 0.025), indicating zero reasons for not wanting testing (vs ≥1 reason) (p = 0.013), and higher health literacy (p = 0.016). Knowledge of genomic SNP testing was low in this sample, but higher among high-risk men. High-risk status may increase interest in novel genomic tests, while low literacy may lessen interest.

  5. Analysis of Alternatives for Risk Assessment Methodologies and Tools

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nachtigal, Noel M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). System Analytics; Fruetel, Julia A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Gleason, Nathaniel J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Helms, Jovana [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Imbro, Dennis Raymond [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Sumner, Matthew C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis

    2013-10-01

    The purpose of this document is to provide a basic overview and understanding of risk assessment methodologies and tools from the literature and to assess the suitability of these methodologies and tools for cyber risk assessment. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) performed this review in support of risk modeling activities performed for the Stakeholder Engagement and Cyber Infrastructure Resilience (SECIR) division of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Office of Cybersecurity and Communications (CS&C). The set of methodologies and tools covered in this document is not intended to be exhaustive; instead, it focuses on those that are commonly used in the risk assessment community. The classification of methodologies and tools was performed by a group of analysts with experience in risk analysis and cybersecurity, and the resulting analysis of alternatives has been tailored to address the needs of a cyber risk assessment.

  6. Work program analysis - defining the capability/risk plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hrinivich, W.A.

    2004-01-01

    Bruce Power has developed and implemented an analysis methodology (Work Program Analysis) to assess and address corporate business risk associated with work group capability. Work Program Analysis is proving to be an excellent tool for identifying and supporting key business decisions facing the line and senior management at Bruce Power. The following describes the methodology, its application and the results achieved. (author)

  7. Simplifying consent for HIV testing is associated with an increase in HIV testing and case detection in highest risk groups, San Francisco January 2003-June 2007.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicola M Zetola

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available Populations at highest risk for HIV infection face multiple barriers to HIV testing. To facilitate HIV testing procedures, the San Francisco General Hospital Medical Center eliminated required written patient consent for HIV testing in its medical settings in May 2006. To describe the change in HIV testing rates in different hospital settings and populations after the change in HIV testing policy in the SFDH medical center, we performed an observational study using interrupted time series analysis.Data from all patients aged 18 years and older seen from January 2003 through June 2007 at the San Francisco Department of Public Health (SFDPH medical care system were included in the analysis. The monthly HIV testing rate per 1000 had patient-visits was calculated for the overall population and stratified by hospital setting, age, sex, race/ethnicity, homelessness status, insurance status and primary language.By June 2007, the average monthly rate of HIV tests per 1000 patient-visits increased 4.38 (CI, 2.17-6.60, p<0.001 over the number predicted if the policy change had not occurred (representing a 44% increase. The monthly average number of new positive HIV tests increased from 8.9 (CI, 6.3-11.5 to 14.9 (CI, 10.6-19.2, p<0.001, representing a 67% increase. Although increases in HIV testing were seen in all populations, populations at highest risk for HIV infection, particularly men, the homeless, and the uninsured experienced the highest increases in monthly HIV testing rates after the policy change.The elimination of the requirement for written consent in May 2006 was associated with a significant and sustained increase in HIV testing rates and HIV case detection in the SFDPH medical center. Populations facing the higher barriers to HIV testing had the highest increases in HIV testing rates and case detection in response to the policy change.

  8. Design of sample analysis device for iodine adsorption efficiency test in NPPs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ji Jinnan

    2015-01-01

    In nuclear power plants, iodine adsorption efficiency test is used to check the iodine adsorption efficiency of the iodine adsorber. The iodine adsorption efficiency can be calculated through the analysis of the test sample, and thus to determine if the performance of the adsorber meets the requirement on the equipment operation and emission. Considering the process of test and actual demand, in this paper, a special device for the analysis of this kind of test sample is designed. The application shows that the device is with convenient operation and high reliability and accurate calculation, and improves the experiment efficiency and reduces the experiment risk. (author)

  9. Children's Perceptions of Tests: A Content Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bulgan, Gokce

    2018-01-01

    Anxiety that students experience during test taking negatively influences their academic achievement. Understanding how students perceive tests and how they feel during test taking could help in taking effective preventive measures. Hence, the current study focused on assessing children's perceptions of tests using content analysis. The sample…

  10. Environmental risk assessment and management of engineered nanomaterials - The role of ecotoxicity testing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hjorth, Rune

    replaced with a focus on in silico and in vitro studies with an even greater need for and reliance on extrapolation. However, in this thesis it is argued that within ecotoxicity, whole organism models remain at the foundation of environmental risk assessment, and as such, they are likely to remain in use...... will be available, it is important that tools encompassing uncertainty are utilized to facilitate decision-support. As the risk constituted by ENMs cannot be quantified, the use, need and ability of risk management options to encompass the potential risk are similarly challenged. This should invoke a precautionary...... to these is the continued examination of the applicability of ecotoxicity testing to encompass the testing of particles, as the tests originally are developed for dissolved chemicals. Furthermore, the ability of such testing to inform environmental risk assessment and environmental risk management, including...

  11. Analysis of the Astronomy Diagnostic Test

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brogt, Erik; Sabers, Darrell; Prather, Edward E.; Deming, Grace L.; Hufnagel, Beth; Slater, Timothy F.

    2007-01-01

    Seventy undergraduate class sections were examined from the database of Astronomy Diagnostic Test (ADT) results of Deming and Hufnagel to determine if course format correlated with ADT normalized gain scores. Normalized gains were calculated for four different classroom scenarios: lecture, lecture with discussion, lecture with lab, and lecture…

  12. High-Risk Behaviors among Youth and Their Reasons for Not Getting Tested for HIV

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moyer, Matthew B.; Silvestre, Anthony J.; Lombardi, Emilia L.; Taylor, Christopher A.

    2007-01-01

    Concerned about reports of a 15% decline in HIV testing among high-risk youth in an earlier study in Pittsburgh, this study was initiated to explore reasons why young people are not getting tested for HIV, while gathering data on their respective level of risk taking behaviors. A total of 580 surveys were collected from youth aged between 14 and…

  13. Urban flooding and health risk analysis by use of quantitative microbial risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Signe Tanja

    D thesis is to identify the limitations and possibilities for optimising microbial risk assessments of urban flooding through more evidence-based solutions, including quantitative microbial data and hydrodynamic water quality models. The focus falls especially on the problem of data needs and the causes......, but also when wading through a flooded area. The results in this thesis have brought microbial risk assessments one step closer to more uniform and repeatable risk analysis by using actual and relevant measured data and hydrodynamic water quality models to estimate the risk from flooding caused...... are expected to increase in the future. To ensure public health during extreme rainfall, solutions are needed, but limited knowledge on microbial water quality, and related health risks, makes it difficult to implement microbial risk analysis as a part of the basis for decision making. The main aim of this Ph...

  14. HVAC fault tree analysis for WIPP integrated risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirby, P.; Iacovino, J.

    1990-01-01

    In order to evaluate the public health risk from operation of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) due to potential radioactive releases, a probabilistic risk assessment of waste handling operations was conducted. One major aspect of this risk assessment involved fault tree analysis of the plant heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, which comprise the final barrier between waste handling operations and the environment. 1 refs., 1 tab

  15. Immunochromatographic diagnostic test analysis using Google Glass.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Steve; Caire, Romain; Cortazar, Bingen; Turan, Mehmet; Wong, Andrew; Ozcan, Aydogan

    2014-03-25

    We demonstrate a Google Glass-based rapid diagnostic test (RDT) reader platform capable of qualitative and quantitative measurements of various lateral flow immunochromatographic assays and similar biomedical diagnostics tests. Using a custom-written Glass application and without any external hardware attachments, one or more RDTs labeled with Quick Response (QR) code identifiers are simultaneously imaged using the built-in camera of the Google Glass that is based on a hands-free and voice-controlled interface and digitally transmitted to a server for digital processing. The acquired JPEG images are automatically processed to locate all the RDTs and, for each RDT, to produce a quantitative diagnostic result, which is returned to the Google Glass (i.e., the user) and also stored on a central server along with the RDT image, QR code, and other related information (e.g., demographic data). The same server also provides a dynamic spatiotemporal map and real-time statistics for uploaded RDT results accessible through Internet browsers. We tested this Google Glass-based diagnostic platform using qualitative (i.e., yes/no) human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and quantitative prostate-specific antigen (PSA) tests. For the quantitative RDTs, we measured activated tests at various concentrations ranging from 0 to 200 ng/mL for free and total PSA. This wearable RDT reader platform running on Google Glass combines a hands-free sensing and image capture interface with powerful servers running our custom image processing codes, and it can be quite useful for real-time spatiotemporal tracking of various diseases and personal medical conditions, providing a valuable tool for epidemiology and mobile health.

  16. Reliability demonstration test planning using bayesian analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chandran, Senthil Kumar; Arul, John A.

    2003-01-01

    In Nuclear Power Plants, the reliability of all the safety systems is very critical from the safety viewpoint and it is very essential that the required reliability requirements be met while satisfying the design constraints. From practical experience, it is found that the reliability of complex systems such as Safety Rod Drive Mechanism is of the order of 10 -4 with an uncertainty factor of 10. To demonstrate the reliability of such systems is prohibitive in terms of cost and time as the number of tests needed is very large. The purpose of this paper is to develop a Bayesian reliability demonstrating testing procedure for exponentially distributed failure times with gamma prior distribution on the failure rate which can be easily and effectively used to demonstrate component/subsystem/system reliability conformance to stated requirements. The important questions addressed in this paper are: With zero failures, how long one should perform the tests and how many components are required to conclude with a given degree of confidence, that the component under test, meets the reliability requirement. The procedure is explained with an example. This procedure can also be extended to demonstrate with more number of failures. The approach presented is applicable for deriving test plans for demonstrating component failure rates of nuclear power plants, as the failure data for similar components are becoming available in existing plants elsewhere. The advantages of this procedure are the criterion upon which the procedure is based is simple and pertinent, the fitting of the prior distribution is an integral part of the procedure and is based on the use of information regarding two percentiles of this distribution and finally, the procedure is straightforward and easy to apply in practice. (author)

  17. WE-B-BRC-02: Risk Analysis and Incident Learning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fraass, B. [Cedars Sinai Medical Center (United States)

    2016-06-15

    Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. We therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation oncology

  18. WE-B-BRC-02: Risk Analysis and Incident Learning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fraass, B.

    2016-01-01

    Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. We therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation oncology

  19. Applying Multi-Criteria Analysis Methods for Fire Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pushkina Julia

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to prove the application of multi-criteria analysis methods for optimisation of fire risk identification and assessment process. The object of this research is fire risk and risk assessment. The subject of the research is studying the application of analytic hierarchy process for modelling and influence assessment of various fire risk factors. Results of research conducted by the authors can be used by insurance companies to perform the detailed assessment of fire risks on the object and to calculate a risk extra charge to an insurance premium; by the state supervisory institutions to determine the compliance of a condition of object with requirements of regulations; by real state owners and investors to carry out actions for decrease in degree of fire risks and minimisation of possible losses.

  20. DYNAMIC HYBRIDS UNDER SOLVENCY II: RISK ANALYSIS AND MODIFICATION POSSIBILITIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Maier

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we investigate the new and standardized European system of supervisory called Solvency II. In essence, asymmetric distribution of information between policyholder and insurer triggered this new regulation which aims at better protecting policyholders. Its three-pillar model is about to challenge both, insurers as well as policyholders. The first pillar includes quantitative aspects, the second pillar contains qualitative aspects and the third pillar comprises market transparency and reporting obligations. Underwriting risks, the default risk of a bank and market risks can be identified for the dynamic hybrid. Solvency II covers all these risks in the first pillar and insurers shall deposit sufficient risk-bearing capital. In our analysis, we first identify the dynamic hybrid specific risks under the Solvency II regime und then develop product modifications to reduce this risk.

  1. Risk and safety analysis of nuclear systems

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lee, John C; McCormick, Norman J

    2011-01-01

    ...), and failure modes of systems. All of this material is general enough that it could be used in non-nuclear applications, although there is an emphasis placed on the analysis of nuclear systems...

  2. Data Link Test and Analysis System/ATCRBS Transponder Test System Technical Reference

    Science.gov (United States)

    1990-05-01

    This document references material for personnel using or making software changes : to the Data Link Test and Analysis System (DATAS) for Air Traffic Control Radar : Beacon System (ATCRBS) transponder testing and data collection. This is one of : a se...

  3. Methodology to identify risk-significant components for inservice inspection and testing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anderson, M.T.; Hartley, R.S.; Jones, J.L. Jr.; Kido, C.; Phillips, J.H.

    1992-08-01

    Periodic inspection and testing of vital system components should be performed to ensure the safe and reliable operation of Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear processing facilities. Probabilistic techniques may be used to help identify and rank components by their relative risk. A risk-based ranking would allow varied DOE sites to implement inspection and testing programs in an effective and cost-efficient manner. This report describes a methodology that can be used to rank components, while addressing multiple risk issues

  4. The development of a 3D risk analysis method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    I, Yet-Pole; Cheng, Te-Lung

    2008-05-01

    Much attention has been paid to the quantitative risk analysis (QRA) research in recent years due to more and more severe disasters that have happened in the process industries. Owing to its calculation complexity, very few software, such as SAFETI, can really make the risk presentation meet the practice requirements. However, the traditional risk presentation method, like the individual risk contour in SAFETI, is mainly based on the consequence analysis results of dispersion modeling, which usually assumes that the vapor cloud disperses over a constant ground roughness on a flat terrain with no obstructions and concentration fluctuations, which is quite different from the real situations of a chemical process plant. All these models usually over-predict the hazardous regions in order to maintain their conservativeness, which also increases the uncertainty of the simulation results. On the other hand, a more rigorous model such as the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model can resolve the previous limitations; however, it cannot resolve the complexity of risk calculations. In this research, a conceptual three-dimensional (3D) risk calculation method was proposed via the combination of results of a series of CFD simulations with some post-processing procedures to obtain the 3D individual risk iso-surfaces. It is believed that such technique will not only be limited to risk analysis at ground level, but also be extended into aerial, submarine, or space risk analyses in the near future.

  5. Assessment of major nuclear technologies with decision and risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Winterfeldt, D. von

    1995-01-01

    Selecting technologies for major nuclear programs involves several complexities, including multiple stakeholders, multiple conflicting objectives, uncertainties, and risk. In addition, the programmatic risks related to the schedule, cost, and performance of these technologies often become major issues in the selection process. This paper describes a decision analysis approach for addressing these complexities in a logical manner

  6. The JPL Cost Risk Analysis Approach that Incorporates Engineering Realism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harmon, Corey C.; Warfield, Keith R.; Rosenberg, Leigh S.

    2006-01-01

    This paper discusses the JPL Cost Engineering Group (CEG) cost risk analysis approach that accounts for all three types of cost risk. It will also describe the evaluation of historical cost data upon which this method is based. This investigation is essential in developing a method that is rooted in engineering realism and produces credible, dependable results to aid decision makers.

  7. The use of current risk analysis tools evaluated towards preventing external domino accidents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reniers, Genserik L L; Dullaert, W.; Ale, B. J.M.; Soudan, K.

    Risk analysis is an essential tool for company safety policy. Risk analysis consists of identifying and evaluating all possible risks. The efficiency of risk analysis tools depends on the rigueur of identifying and evaluating all possible risks. The diversity in risk analysis procedures is such that

  8. Arsenic metabolism and cancer risk: A meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gamboa-Loira, Brenda; Cebrián, Mariano E; Franco-Marina, Francisco; López-Carrillo, Lizbeth

    2017-07-01

    To describe the studies that have reported association measures between risk of cancer and the percentage distribution of urinary inorganic arsenic (iAs) metabolites by anatomical site, in non-ecological epidemiological studies. Studies were identified in the PubMed database in the period from 1990 to 2015. Inclusion criteria were: non-ecological epidemiological study, with histologically confirmed cancer cases, reporting the percentage distribution of inorganic arsenic (iAs), monomethylated (MMA) and dimethylated (DMA) metabolites, as well as association measures with confidence intervals (CI) between cancer and %iAs and/or %MMA and/or %DMA. A descriptive meta-analysis was performed by the method of the inverse of the variance for the fixed effects model and the DerSimonian and Laird's method for the random effects model. Heterogeneity was tested using the Q statistic and stratifying for epidemiological design and total As in urine. The possibility of publication bias was assessed through Begg's test. A total of 13 eligible studies were found, most of them were performed in Taiwan and focused on skin and bladder cancer. The positive association between %MMA and various types of cancer was consistent, in contrast to the negative relationship between %DMA and cancer that was inconsistent. The summary risk of bladder (OR=1.79; 95% CI: 1.42, 2.26, n=4 studies) and lung (OR=2.44; 95% CI: 1.57, 3.80, n=2 studies) cancer increased significantly with increasing %MMA, without statistical heterogeneity. In contrast, lung cancer risk was inversely related to %DMA (OR=0.58; 95% CI: 0.36, 0.93, n=2 studies), also without significant heterogeneity. These results were similar after stratifying by epidemiological design and total As in urine. No evidence of publication bias was found. These findings provide additional support that methylation needs to be taken into account when assessing the potential iAs carcinogenicity risk. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  9. Simulation Approach to Mission Risk and Reliability Analysis, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — It is proposed to develop and demonstrate an integrated total-system risk and reliability analysis approach that is based on dynamic, probabilistic simulation. This...

  10. Risk and train control : a framework for analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2001-01-01

    This report develops and demonstrates a framework for examining the effects of various train control strategies on some of the major risks of railroad operations. Analysis of hypothetical 1200-mile corridor identified the main factors that increase r...

  11. Vulnerability and Risk Analysis Program: Overview of Assessment Methodology

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2001-01-01

    .... Over the last three years, a team of national laboratory experts, working in partnership with the energy industry, has successfully applied the methodology as part of OCIP's Vulnerability and Risk Analysis Program (VRAP...

  12. Risk and Interdependencies in Critical Infrastructures A Guideline for Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Utne, Ingrid; Vatn, Jørn

    2012-01-01

    Today’s society is completely dependent on critical networks such as  water supply, sewage, electricity, ICT and transportation. Risk and vulnerability analyses are needed to grasp the impact of threats and hazards. However, these become quite complex as there are strong interdependencies both within and between infrastructure systems. Risk and Interdependencies in Critical Infrastructures: A  guideline for analysis provides methods for analyzing risks and interdependencies of critical infrastructures.  A number of analysis approaches are described and are adapted to each of these infrastructures. Various approaches are also revised, and all are supported by several examples and illustrations. Particular emphasis is given to the analysis of various interdependencies that often exist between the infrastructures.  Risk and Interdependencies in Critical Infrastructures: A  guideline for analysis provides a good tool to identify the hazards that are threatening your infrastructures, and will enhance the un...

  13. Cerebrospinal Fluid (CSF) Analysis: MedlinePlus Lab Test Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... K. Brunner & Suddarth's Handbook of Laboratory and Diagnostic Tests. 2nd Ed, Kindle. Philadelphia: Wolters Kluwer Health, Lippincott Williams & Wilkins; c2014. Cerebrospinal Fluid Analysis; 144 p. Johns ...

  14. Spent fuel pool risk analysis for the Dukovany NPP

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hust' ak, S.; Jaros, M.; Kubicek, J. [UJV Rez, a.s., Husinec-Rez (Czech Republic)

    2013-07-01

    UJV Rez, a.s. maintains a Living Probabilistic Safety Assessment (Living PSA) program for Dukovany Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) in the Czech Republic. This project has been established as a framework for activities related to risk assessment and to support for risk-informed decision making at this plant. The most extensively used PSA application at Dukovany NPP is risk monitoring of instantaneous (point-in-time) risk during plant operation, especially for the purpose of configuration risk management during plant scheduled outages to avoid risk significant configurations. The scope of PSA for Dukovany NPP includes also determination of a risk contribution from spent fuel pool (SFP) operation to provide recommendations for the prevention and mitigation of SFP accidents and to be applicable for configuration risk management. This paper describes the analysis of internal initiating events (IEs) in PSA for Dukovany NPP, which can contribute to the risk from SFP operation. The analysis of those IEs was done more thoroughly in the PSA for Dukovany NPP in order to be used in instantaneous risk monitoring. (orig.)

  15. Hair Testing for Drugs of Abuse and New Psychoactive Substances in a High-Risk Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salomone, Alberto; Palamar, Joseph J; Gerace, Enrico; Di Corcia, Daniele; Vincenti, Marco

    2017-06-01

    Hundreds of new psychoactive substances (NPS) have emerged in the drug market over the last decade. Few drug surveys in the USA, however, ask about use of NPS, so prevalence and correlates of use are largely unknown. A large portion of NPS use is unintentional or unknown as NPS are common adulterants in drugs like ecstasy/Molly, and most NPS are rapidly eliminated from the body, limiting efficacy of urine, blood and saliva testing. We utilized a novel method of examining prevalence of NPS use in a high-risk population utilizing hair-testing. Hair samples from high-risk nightclub and dance music attendees were tested for 82 drugs and metabolites (including NPS) using ultra-high performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. Eighty samples collected from different parts of the body were analyzed, 57 of which detected positive for at least one substance-either a traditional or new drug. Among these, 26 samples tested positive for at least one NPS-the most common being butylone (25 samples). Other new drugs detected include methylone, methoxetamine, 5/6-APB, α-PVP and 4-FA. Hair analysis proved a powerful tool to gain objective biological drug-prevalence information, free from possible biases of unintentional or unknown intake and untruthful reporting of use. Such testing can be used actively or retrospectively to validate survey responses and inform research on consumption patterns, including intentional and unknown use, polydrug-use, occasional NPS intake and frequent or heavy use. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  16. Common pitfalls in statistical analysis: Absolute risk reduction, relative risk reduction, and number needed to treat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranganathan, Priya; Pramesh, C. S.; Aggarwal, Rakesh

    2016-01-01

    In the previous article in this series on common pitfalls in statistical analysis, we looked at the difference between risk and odds. Risk, which refers to the probability of occurrence of an event or outcome, can be defined in absolute or relative terms. Understanding what these measures represent is essential for the accurate interpretation of study results. PMID:26952180

  17. Imminent Cardiac Risk Assessment via Optical Intravascular Biochemical Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wetzel, D.; Wetzel, L; Wetzel, M; Lodder, R

    2009-01-01

    Heart disease is by far the biggest killer in the United States, and type II diabetes, which affects 8% of the U.S. population, is on the rise. In many cases, the acute coronary syndrome and/or sudden cardiac death occurs without warning. Atherosclerosis has known behavioral, genetic and dietary risk factors. However, our laboratory studies with animal models and human post-mortem tissue using FT-IR microspectroscopy reveal the chemical microstructure within arteries and in the arterial walls themselves. These include spectra obtained from the aortas of ApoE-/- knockout mice on sucrose and normal diets showing lipid deposition in the former case. Also pre-aneurysm chemical images of knockout mouse aorta walls, and spectra of plaque excised from a living human patient are shown for comparison. In keeping with the theme of the SPEC 2008 conference Spectroscopic Diagnosis of Disease this paper describes the background and potential value of a new catheter-based system to provide in vivo biochemical analysis of plaque in human coronary arteries. We report the following: (1) results of FT-IR microspectroscopy on animal models of vascular disease to illustrate the localized chemical distinctions between pathological and normal tissue, (2) current diagnostic techniques used for risk assessment of patients with potential unstable coronary syndromes, and (3) the advantages and limitations of each of these techniques illustrated with patent care histories, related in the first person, by the physician coauthors. Note that the physician comments clarify the contribution of each diagnostic technique to imminent cardiac risk assessment in a clinical setting, leading to the appreciation of what localized intravascular chemical analysis can contribute as an add-on diagnostic tool. The quality of medical imaging has improved dramatically since the turn of the century. Among clinical non-invasive diagnostic tools, laboratory tests of body fluids, EKG, and physical examination are

  18. A study on the optimization of test interval for check valves of Ulchin Unit 3 using the risk-informed in-service testing approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, D. I.; Kim, K. Y.; Yang, Z. A.; Ha, J. J.

    2002-01-01

    We optimized the test interval for check valves of Ulchin Unit 3 using the risk-informed in-service testing (IST) approach. First, we categorized the IST check valves for Ulchin Unit 3 according to their contributions to the safety of Ulchin Unit 3. Next, we performed the risk analysis on the relaxation of test interval for check valves identified as relatively low important to the safety of Ulchin Unit 3 to identify the maximum increasable test interval of them. Finally, we estimated the number of tests of IST check valves to be performed due to the changes of test interval. These study results are as follows: The categorization of IST check valve importance; the number of the HSSCs is 24(11.48%), the ISSCs is 40 (19.14%), and the LSSCs is 462(69.38%). The maximum increasable test interval; 6 times of current test interval of ISSCs2 and 40 times of that of LSSCs. The number of tests of IST check valves to be performed during 6 refueling time can be reduced from 7692 to 1333 ( 82.7%)

  19. The relationship of reported HIV risk and history of HIV testing among emergency department patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merchant, Roland C; Freelove, Sarah M; Langan, Thomas J; Clark, Melissa A; Mayer, Kenneth H; Seage, George R; DeGruttola, Victor G

    2010-01-01

    Among a random sample of emergency department (ED) patients, we sought to determine the extent to which reported risk for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is related to ever having been tested for HIV. A random sample of patients (aged 18-64 years) from an adult, urban, northeastern United States, academic ED were surveyed about their history of ever having been tested for HIV and their reported HIV risk behaviors. A reported HIV risk score was calculated from the survey responses and divided into 4 levels, based on quartiles of the risk scores. Pearson's X(2) testing was used to compare HIV testing history and level of reported HIV risk. Logistic regression models were created to investigate the association between level of reported HIV risk and the outcome of ever having been tested for HIV. Of the 557 participants, 62.1% were female. A larger proportion of females than males (71.4% vs 60.6%; P history of injection-drug use, were associated with prior HIV testing for both genders. In the logistic regression analyses, there was no relationship between increasing level of reported HIV risk and a history of ever having been tested for HIV for males. For females, a history of ever having been tested was related to increasing level of reported risk, but not in a linear fashion. The relationship between reported HIV risk and history of testing among these ED patients was complex and differed by gender. Among these patients, having greater risk did not necessarily mean a higher likelihood of ever having been tested for HIV.

  20. H15-42: CFD analysis for risk analysis in urban environments - Tilburg city case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hulsbosch-Dam, C.; Mack, A.; Ratingen, S. van; Rosmuller, N.; Trijssenaar, I.

    2013-01-01

    For risk analysis studies, relatively simple dispersion models are generally applied, such as Gaussian dispersion and dense gas dispersion models. For rail transport risk analyses in the Netherlands, fixed consequence distances are applied for various standard scenarios of hazardous materials

  1. Instability risk analysis and risk assessment system establishment of underground storage caverns in bedded salt rock

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jing, Wenjun; Zhao, Yan

    2018-02-01

    Stability is an important part of geotechnical engineering research. The operating experiences of underground storage caverns in salt rock all around the world show that the stability of the caverns is the key problem of safe operation. Currently, the combination of theoretical analysis and numerical simulation are the mainly adopts method of reserve stability analysis. This paper introduces the concept of risk into the stability analysis of underground geotechnical structure, and studies the instability of underground storage cavern in salt rock from the perspective of risk analysis. Firstly, the definition and classification of cavern instability risk is proposed, and the damage mechanism is analyzed from the mechanical angle. Then the main stability evaluating indicators of cavern instability risk are proposed, and an evaluation method of cavern instability risk is put forward. Finally, the established cavern instability risk assessment system is applied to the analysis and prediction of cavern instability risk after 30 years of operation in a proposed storage cavern group in the Huai’an salt mine. This research can provide a useful theoretical base for the safe operation and management of underground storage caverns in salt rock.

  2. Environmental risk analysis of hazardous material rail transportation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saat, Mohd Rapik; Werth, Charles J.; Schaeffer, David; Yoon, Hongkyu; Barkan, Christopher P.L.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Comprehensive, nationwide risk assessment of hazardous material rail transportation. • Application of a novel environmental (i.e. soil and groundwater) consequence model. • Cleanup cost and total shipment distance are the most significant risk factors. • Annual risk varies from $20,000 to $560,000 for different products. • Provides information on the risk cost associated with specific product shipments. -- Abstract: An important aspect of railroad environmental risk management involves tank car transportation of hazardous materials. This paper describes a quantitative, environmental risk analysis of rail transportation of a group of light, non-aqueous-phase liquid (LNAPL) chemicals commonly transported by rail in North America. The Hazardous Materials Transportation Environmental Consequence Model (HMTECM) was used in conjunction with a geographic information system (GIS) analysis of environmental characteristics to develop probabilistic estimates of exposure to different spill scenarios along the North American rail network. The risk analysis incorporated the estimated clean-up cost developed using the HMTECM, route-specific probability distributions of soil type and depth to groundwater, annual traffic volume, railcar accident rate, and tank car safety features, to estimate the nationwide annual risk of transporting each product. The annual risk per car-mile (car-km) and per ton-mile (ton-km) was also calculated to enable comparison between chemicals and to provide information on the risk cost associated with shipments of these products. The analysis and the methodology provide a quantitative approach that will enable more effective management of the environmental risk of transporting hazardous materials

  3. Environmental risk analysis of hazardous material rail transportation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saat, Mohd Rapik, E-mail: mohdsaat@illinois.edu [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1243 Newmark Civil Engineering Laboratory, 205 North Mathews Avenue, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); Werth, Charles J.; Schaeffer, David [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1243 Newmark Civil Engineering Laboratory, 205 North Mathews Avenue, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); Yoon, Hongkyu [Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM 87123 (United States); Barkan, Christopher P.L. [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1243 Newmark Civil Engineering Laboratory, 205 North Mathews Avenue, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States)

    2014-01-15

    Highlights: • Comprehensive, nationwide risk assessment of hazardous material rail transportation. • Application of a novel environmental (i.e. soil and groundwater) consequence model. • Cleanup cost and total shipment distance are the most significant risk factors. • Annual risk varies from $20,000 to $560,000 for different products. • Provides information on the risk cost associated with specific product shipments. -- Abstract: An important aspect of railroad environmental risk management involves tank car transportation of hazardous materials. This paper describes a quantitative, environmental risk analysis of rail transportation of a group of light, non-aqueous-phase liquid (LNAPL) chemicals commonly transported by rail in North America. The Hazardous Materials Transportation Environmental Consequence Model (HMTECM) was used in conjunction with a geographic information system (GIS) analysis of environmental characteristics to develop probabilistic estimates of exposure to different spill scenarios along the North American rail network. The risk analysis incorporated the estimated clean-up cost developed using the HMTECM, route-specific probability distributions of soil type and depth to groundwater, annual traffic volume, railcar accident rate, and tank car safety features, to estimate the nationwide annual risk of transporting each product. The annual risk per car-mile (car-km) and per ton-mile (ton-km) was also calculated to enable comparison between chemicals and to provide information on the risk cost associated with shipments of these products. The analysis and the methodology provide a quantitative approach that will enable more effective management of the environmental risk of transporting hazardous materials.

  4. Assessing the impact of a combined analysis of four common low-risk genetic variants on autism risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carayol Jerome

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Autism is a complex disorder characterized by deficits involving communication, social interaction, and repetitive and restrictive patterns of behavior. Twin studies have shown that autism is strongly heritable, suggesting a strong genetic component. In other disease states with a complex etiology, such as type 2 diabetes, cancer and cardiovascular disease, combined analysis of multiple genetic variants in a genetic score has helped to identify individuals at high risk of disease. Genetic scores are designed to test for association of genetic markers with disease. Method The accumulation of multiple risk alleles markedly increases the risk of being affected, and compared with studying polymorphisms individually, it improves the identification of subgroups of individuals at greater risk. In the present study, we show that this approach can be applied to autism by specifically looking at a high-risk population of children who have siblings with autism. A two-sample study design and the generation of a genetic score using multiple independent genes were used to assess the risk of autism in a high-risk population. Results In both samples, odds ratios (ORs increased significantly as a function of the number of risk alleles, with a genetic score of 8 being associated with an OR of 5.54 (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.45 to 12.49. The sensitivities and specificities for each genetic score were similar in both analyses, and the resultant area under the receiver operating characteristic curves were identical (0.59. Conclusions These results suggest that the accumulation of multiple risk alleles in a genetic score is a useful strategy for assessing the risk of autism in siblings of affected individuals, and may be better than studying single polymorphisms for identifying subgroups of individuals with significantly greater risk.

  5. Factors Associated with Recent HIV Testing among Heterosexuals at High-Risk for HIV Infection in New York City

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marya eGwadz

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Background. The CDC recommends persons at high-risk for HIV infection in the United States receive annual HIV testing to foster early HIV diagnosis and timely linkage to health care. Heterosexuals make up a significant proportion of incident HIV infections (>25%, but test for HIV less frequently than those in other risk categories. Yet factors that promote or impede annual HIV testing among heterosexuals are poorly understood. The present study examines individual/attitudinal-, social-, and structural-level factors associated with past-year HIV testing among heterosexuals at high-risk for HIV. Methods. Participants were African American/Black and Hispanic heterosexual adults (N=2307 residing in an urban area with both high poverty and HIV prevalence rates. Participants were recruited by respondent-driven sampling (RDS in 2012-2015 and completed a computerized structured assessment battery covering background factors, multi-level putative facilitators of HIV testing, and HIV testing history. Separate logistic regression analysis for males and females identified factors associated with past-year HIV testing.Results. Participants were mostly male (58%, African American/Black (75%, and 39 years old on average (SD = 12.06 years. Lifetime homelessness (54% and incarceration (62% were common. Half reported past-year HIV testing (50% and 37% engaged in regular, annual HIV testing. Facilitators of HIV testing common to both genders included sexually transmitted infection (STI testing or STI diagnosis, peer norms supporting HIV testing, and HIV testing access. Among women, access to general medical care and extreme poverty further predicted HIV testing, while recent drug use reduced the odds of past-year HIV testing. Among men, past-year HIV testing was also associated with lifetime incarceration and substance use treatment.Conclusions. The present study identified gaps in rates of HIV testing among heterosexuals at high-risk for HIV, and both common and

  6. ANALYSIS OF RISK FACTORS ECTOPIC PREGNANCY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Budi Santoso

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Ectopic pregnancy is a pregnancy with extrauterine implantation. This situation is gynecologic emergency that contributes to maternal mortality. Therefore, early recognition, based on identification of the causes of ectopic pregnancy risk factors, is needed. Methods: The design descriptive observational. The samples were pregnant women who had ectopic pregnancy at Maternity Room, Emergency Unit, Dr. Soetomo Hospital, Surabaya, from 1 July 2008 to 1 July 2010. Sampling technique was total sampling using medical records. Result: Patients with ectopic pregnancy were 99 individuals out of 2090 pregnant women who searched for treatment in Dr. Soetomo Hospital. However, only 29 patients were accompanied with traceable risk factors. Discussion:. Most ectopic pregnancies were in the age group of 26-30 years, comprising 32 patients (32.32%, then in age groups of 31–35 years as many as 25 patients (25.25%, 18 patients in age group 21–25 years (18.18%, 17 patients in age group 36–40 years (17.17%, 4 patients in age group 41 years and more (4.04%, and the least was in age group of 16–20 years with 3 patients (3.03%. A total of 12 patients with ectopic pregnancy (41.38% had experience of abortion and 6 patients (20.69% each in groups of patients with ectopic pregnancy who used family planning, in those who used family planning as well as ectopic pregnancy patients with history of surgery. There were 2 patients (6.90% of the group of patients ectopic pregnancy who had history of surgery and history of abortion. The incidence rate of ectopic pregnancy was 4.73%, mostly in the second gravidity (34.34%, whereas the nulliparous have the highest prevalence of 39.39%. Acquired risk factors, i.e. history of operations was 10.34%, patients with family planning 20.69%, patients with history of abortion 41.38%, patients with history of abortion and operation 6.90% patients with family and history of abortion was 20.69%.

  7. Qualification test and analysis report: solar collectors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1978-12-01

    Test results show that the Owens-Illinois Sunpak/sup TM/ Model SEC 601 air-cooled collector meets the national standards and codes as defined in the Subsystem Performance Specification and Verification Plan of NASA/MSFC Contract NAS8-32259, dated October 28, 1976. The architectural and engineering firm of Smith, Hinchman and Grylls, Detroit, Michigan, acted in the capacity of the independent certification agency. The program calls for the development, fabrication, qualification and delivery of an air-liquid solar collector for solar heating, combined heating and cooling, and/or hot water systems.

  8. Quantitative risk analysis in two pipelines operated by TRANSPETRO

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia, Claudio B. [PETROBRAS Transporte S/A (TRANSPETRO), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Pinho, Edson [Universidade Federal Rural do Rio de Janeiro (UFRRJ), Seropedica, RJ (Brazil); Bittencourt, Euclides [Centro Universitario FIB, Salvador , BA (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    Transportation risk analysis techniques were used to study two pipelines operated by TRANSPETRO. The Pipeline A is for the simultaneous transportation of diesel, gasoline and LPG and comprises three parts, all of them crossing rural areas. The Pipeline B is for oil transportation and one of its ends is located in an area of a high density population. Both pipelines had their risk studied using the PHAST RISK{sup R} software and the individual risk measures, the only considered measures for license purposes for this type of studies, presented level far below the maximum tolerable levels considered. (author)

  9. THE ANALYSIS OF RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS WITHIN MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ROMANESCU MARCEL LAURENTIU

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available This article highlights the risk analysis within management, focusing on how a company could practicaly integrate the risks management in the existing leading process. Subsequently, it is exemplified the way of manage risk effectively, which gives numerous advantages to all firms, including improving their decision-making process. All these lead to the conclusion that the degree of risk specific to companies is very high, but if managers make the best decisions then it can diminish it and all business activitiy and its income are not influenced by factors that could disturb in a negative way .

  10. Development of component failure data for seismic risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fray, R.R.; Moulia, T.A.

    1981-01-01

    This paper describes the quantification and utilization of seismic failure data used in the Diablo Canyon Seismic Risk Study. A single variable representation of earthquake severity that uses peak horizontal ground acceleration to characterize earthquake severity was employed. The use of a multiple variable representation would allow direct consideration of vertical accelerations and the spectral nature of earthquakes but would have added such complexity that the study would not have been feasible. Vertical accelerations and spectral nature were indirectly considered because component failure data were derived from design analyses, qualification tests and engineering judgment that did include such considerations. Two types of functions were used to describe component failure probabilities. Ramp functions were used for components, such as piping and structures, qualified by stress analysis. 'Anchor points' for ramp functions were selected by assuming a zero probability of failure at code allowable stress levels and unity probability of failure at ultimate stress levels. The accelerations corresponding to allowable and ultimate stress levels were determined by conservatively assuming a linear relationship between seismic stress and ground acceleration. Step functions were used for components, such as mechanical and electrical equipment, qualified by testing. Anchor points for step functions were selected by assuming a unity probability of failure above the qualification acceleration. (orig./HP)

  11. Analysis of risk factors for persistent infection of asymptomatic women with high-risk human papilloma virus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Nianmin; Lu, Qiang; Zhang, Jiao; Li, Li; Zhang, Junnan; Zhang, Fanglei; Dong, Yanhong; Zhang, Xinyue; Zhang, Zheng; Gao, Wenhui

    2017-06-03

    This study aims to prevent persistentinfection, reduce the incidence of cervical cancer, and improve women's health by understanding the theoretical basis of the risk factors for continuous infection of asymptomatic women with high-risk human papilloma virus (HPV) strains via information collected, which includes the persistent infection rate and the most prevalent HPV strain types of high risk to asymptomatic women in the high-risk area of cervical cancer in Linfen, Shanxi Province. Based on the method of cluster sampling, locations were chosen from the industrial county and agricultural county of Linfen, Shanxi Province, namely the Xiangfen and Quwo counties. Use of the convenience sampling (CS) method enables the identification of women who have sex but without symptoms of abnormal cervix for analyzing risk factors of HPV-DNA detection and performing a retrospective questionnaire survey in these 2 counties. Firstly, cervical exfoliated cell samples were collected for thin-layer liquid-based cytology test (TCT), and simultaneously testing high-risk type HPV DNA, then samples with positive testing results were retested to identify the infected HPV types. The 6-month period of testing was done to derive the 6-month persistent infection rate. The retrospective survey included concepts addressed in the questionnaire: basic situation of the research objects, menstrual history, marital status, pregnancy history, sexual habits and other aspects. The questionnaire was divided into a case group and a comparison group, which are based on the high-risk HPV-DNA testing result to ascertain whether or not there is persistent infection. Statistical analysis employed Epidate3.1 software for date entry, SPSS17.0 for date statistical analysis. Select statistic charts, Chi-Square Analysis, single-factor analysis and multivariate Logistic regression analysis to analyze the protective factors and risk factors of high-risk HPV infection. Risk factors are predicted by using the

  12. Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon; Kelly, Dana; Smith, Curtis; Vedros, Kurt; Galyean, William

    2009-01-01

    This document, Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis, is intended to provide guidelines for the collection and evaluation of risk and reliability-related data. It is aimed at scientists and engineers familiar with risk and reliability methods and provides a hands-on approach to the investigation and application of a variety of risk and reliability data assessment methods, tools, and techniques. This document provides both: A broad perspective on data analysis collection and evaluation issues. A narrow focus on the methods to implement a comprehensive information repository. The topics addressed herein cover the fundamentals of how data and information are to be used in risk and reliability analysis models and their potential role in decision making. Understanding these topics is essential to attaining a risk informed decision making environment that is being sought by NASA requirements and procedures such as 8000.4 (Agency Risk Management Procedural Requirements), NPR 8705.05 (Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures for NASA Programs and Projects), and the System Safety requirements of NPR 8715.3 (NASA General Safety Program Requirements).

  13. Risk analysis of analytical validations by probabilistic modification of FMEA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barends, D.M.; Oldenhof, M.T.; Vredenbregt, M.J.

    2012-01-01

    Risk analysis is a valuable addition to validation of an analytical chemistry process, enabling not only detecting technical risks, but also risks related to human failures. Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) can be applied, using a categorical risk scoring of the occurrence, detection...... and severity of failure modes, and calculating the Risk Priority Number (RPN) to select failure modes for correction. We propose a probabilistic modification of FMEA, replacing the categorical scoring of occurrence and detection by their estimated relative frequency and maintaining the categorical scoring...... of severity. In an example, the results of traditional FMEA of a Near Infrared (NIR) analytical procedure used for the screening of suspected counterfeited tablets are re-interpretated by this probabilistic modification of FMEA. Using this probabilistic modification of FMEA, the frequency of occurrence...

  14. [Survival analysis with competing risks: estimating failure probability].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llorca, Javier; Delgado-Rodríguez, Miguel

    2004-01-01

    To show the impact of competing risks of death on survival analysis. We provide an example of survival time without chronic rejection after heart transplantation, where death before rejection acts as a competing risk. Using a computer simulation, we compare the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the multiple decrement model. The Kaplan-Meier method overestimated the probability of rejection. Next, we illustrate the use of the multiple decrement model to analyze secondary end points (in our example: death after rejection). Finally, we discuss Kaplan-Meier assumptions and why they fail in the presence of competing risks. Survival analysis should be adjusted for competing risks of death to avoid overestimation of the risk of rejection produced with the Kaplan-Meier method.

  15. Concerns about Genetic Testing for Schizophrenia among Young Adults at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrence, Ryan E; Friesen, Phoebe; Brucato, Gary; Girgis, Ragy R; Dixon, Lisa

    Genetic tests for schizophrenia may introduce risks and benefits. Among young adults at clinical high-risk for psychosis, little is known about their concerns and how they assess potential risks. We conducted semi-structured interviews with 15 young adults at clinical high-risk for psychosis to ask about their concerns. Participants expressed concerns about test reliability, data interpretation, stigma, psychological harm, family planning, and privacy. Participants' responses showed some departure from the ethics literature insofar as participants were primarily interested in reporting their results to people to whom they felt emotionally close, and expressed little consideration of biological closeness. Additionally, if tests showed an increased genetic risk for schizophrenia, four clinical high-risk persons felt obligated to tell an employer and another three would "maybe" tell an employer, even in the absence of clinical symptoms. These findings suggest opportunities for clinicians and genetic counselors to intervene with education and support.

  16. Risk-benefit analysis and public policy: a bibliography

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clark, E.M.; Van Horn, A.J.

    1976-11-01

    Risk-benefit analysis has been implicitly practiced whenever decision-makers are confronted with decisions involving risks to life, health, or to the environment. Various methodologies have been developed to evaluate relevant criteria and to aid in assessing the impacts of alternative projects. Among these have been cost-benefit analysis, which has been widely used for project evaluation. However, in many cases it has been difficult to assign dollar costs to those criteria involving risks and benefits which are not now assigned explicit monetary values in our economic system. Hence, risk-benefit analysis has evolved to become more than merely an extension of cost-benefit analysis, and many methods have been applied to examine the trade-offs between risks and benefits. In addition, new scientific and statistical techniques have been developed for assessing current and future risks. The 950 references included in this bibliography are meant to suggest the breadth of those methodologies which have been applied to decisions involving risk.

  17. Risk-benefit analysis and public policy: a bibliography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clark, E.M.; Van Horn, A.J.

    1976-11-01

    Risk-benefit analysis has been implicitly practiced whenever decision-makers are confronted with decisions involving risks to life, health, or to the environment. Various methodologies have been developed to evaluate relevant criteria and to aid in assessing the impacts of alternative projects. Among these have been cost-benefit analysis, which has been widely used for project evaluation. However, in many cases it has been difficult to assign dollar costs to those criteria involving risks and benefits which are not now assigned explicit monetary values in our economic system. Hence, risk-benefit analysis has evolved to become more than merely an extension of cost-benefit analysis, and many methods have been applied to examine the trade-offs between risks and benefits. In addition, new scientific and statistical techniques have been developed for assessing current and future risks. The 950 references included in this bibliography are meant to suggest the breadth of those methodologies which have been applied to decisions involving risk

  18. Social trust, risk perceptions and public acceptance of recycled water: testing a social-psychological model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, Victoria L; Fielding, Kelly S; Louis, Winnifred R

    2014-05-01

    Faced with a severe drought, the residents of the regional city of Toowoomba, in South East Queensland, Australia were asked to consider a potable wastewater reuse scheme to supplement drinking water supplies. As public risk perceptions and trust have been shown to be key factors in acceptance of potable reuse projects, this research developed and tested a social-psychological model of trust, risk perceptions and acceptance. Participants (N = 380) were surveyed a few weeks before a referendum was held in which residents voted against the controversial scheme. Analysis using structural equation modelling showed that the more community members perceived that the water authority used fair procedures (e.g., consulting with the community and providing accurate information), the greater their sense of shared identity with the water authority. Shared social identity in turn influenced trust via increased source credibility, that is, perceptions that the water authority is competent and has the community's interest at heart. The findings also support past research showing that higher levels of trust in the water authority were associated with lower perceptions of risk, which in turn were associated with higher levels of acceptance, and vice versa. The findings have a practical application for improving public acceptance of potable recycled water schemes. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Longitudinal change of COPD assessment test (CAT) in a telehealthcare cohort is associated with exacerbation risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rassouli, Frank; Baty, Florent; Stolz, Daiana; Albrich, Werner Christian; Tamm, Michael; Widmer, Sandra; Brutsche, Martin Hugo

    2017-01-01

    There are only scarce data regarding the evolution of the chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) assessment test (CAT) over time. Our aim was to investigate the evolution of the CAT in a telehealthcare (THC) cohort and to evaluate its potential to predict exacerbations. The CAT was measured weekly over up to 1 year in 40 COPD patients undergoing a THC intervention. The evolution of the CAT was analyzed using linear regression. The association between this evolution and the occurrence of exacerbations was evaluated using the Andersen-Gill formulation of the Cox proportional hazards model for the analysis of recurrent time-to-event data with time-varying predictors. The median CAT at inclusion was 17 (interquartile range 13-22) points. During the study, 25% of patients had a significant negative slope (median -7 points per year [ppy]), 38% were stable (median +0 ppy) and 38% had a significant positive slope (median +6 ppy). The median slope of the CAT in the overall cohort was +1 (interquartile range -3 to +6) ppy. A significant positive association was found between the change in CAT scores and the risk of exacerbations (hazard ratio =1.08, 95% CI: 1.03-1.13; p evolution of the CAT over time and the risk of exacerbations. In about one-fifth of patients, there was a significant learning effect in filling out the CAT, before reliable results could be obtained. The evolution of the CAT could help to assess the risk for future exacerbations.

  20. System related testing and analysis of FRECOPA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Durin, C.

    1992-01-01

    Results from the French Cooperative Payload (FRECOPA) system analysis are presented. It was one of the numerous experiments which were flown on the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) satellite. In our flight configuration (LEO orbit, trailing edge), the environment was a better vacuum than the leading edge, with many thermal cycles (32000) and a large amount of UV radiation (11100 equivalent sun hours). Also, the satellite was mainly bombarded by micro-particles. It saw a low atomic flux and minor doses of protons and electrons

  1. Speed testing of Sliding spectrum analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frenski, Emil; Manolev, Dimitar

    2013-01-01

    The standard method for spectrum analysis in DSP is the Discrete Fourier transform (DFT), typically implemented using a Fast Fourier transform (FFT) algorithm. The reconstruction of the time-domain signal is then performed by the IFFT (Inverse Fast Fourier transform) algorithm. The FFT calculates the spectral components in a window, on a block-by-block basis. If that window is move by one sample, it is obvious that most of the information will remain the same. This article shows how to measure execution time of scripts realizing SDFT algorithm written for MatLab

  2. Privacy Threats and Practical Solutions for Genetic Risk Tests

    OpenAIRE

    Barman, Ludovic; El Graini, Mohammed-Taha; Raisaro, Jean Louis; Ayday, Erman; Hubaux, Jean-Pierre

    2015-01-01

    Recently, several solutions have been proposed to address the complex challenge of protecting individuals’ genetic data during personalized medicine tests. In this short paper, we analyze different privacy threats and propose simple countermeasures for the generic architecture mainly used in the literature. In particular, we present and evaluate a new practical solution against a critical attack of a malicious medical center trying to actively infer raw genetic information of patients.

  3. Analysis of labour risks in the Spanish industrial aerospace sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JUAN LAGUARDIA

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Labour risk prevention is an activity integrated within Safety and Hygiene at Work in Spain. In 2003, the Electronic Declaration for Accidents at Work, Delt@ (DELTA was introduced. The industrial aerospace sector is subject to various risks. Our objective is to analyse the Spanish Industrial Aerospace Sector (SIAS using the ACSOM methodology to assess its labour risks and to prioritise preventive actions. The SIAS and the Services Subsector (SS were created and the relevant accident rate data were obtained. The ACSOM method was applied through double contrast (deviation and translocation of the SIAS or SS risk polygon with the considered pattern, accidents from all sectors (ACSOM G or the SIAS. A list of risks was obtained, ordered by action phases. In the SIAS vs. ACSOM G analysis, radiation risks were the worst, followed by overstrains. Accidents caused by living beings were also significant in the SS vs. SIAE, which will be able to be used to improve Risk Prevention. Radiation is the most significant risk in the SIAS and the SS. Preventive actions will be primary and secondary. ACSOM has shown itself to be a valid tool for the analysis of labour risks.

  4. Analysis of labour risks in the Spanish industrial aerospace sector.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laguardia, Juan; Rubio, Emilio; Garcia, Ana; Garcia-Foncillas, Rafael

    2016-01-01

    Labour risk prevention is an activity integrated within Safety and Hygiene at Work in Spain. In 2003, the Electronic Declaration for Accidents at Work, Delt@ (DELTA) was introduced. The industrial aerospace sector is subject to various risks. Our objective is to analyse the Spanish Industrial Aerospace Sector (SIAS) using the ACSOM methodology to assess its labour risks and to prioritise preventive actions. The SIAS and the Services Subsector (SS) were created and the relevant accident rate data were obtained. The ACSOM method was applied through double contrast (deviation and translocation) of the SIAS or SS risk polygon with the considered pattern, accidents from all sectors (ACSOM G) or the SIAS. A list of risks was obtained, ordered by action phases. In the SIAS vs. ACSOM G analysis, radiation risks were the worst, followed by overstrains. Accidents caused by living beings were also significant in the SS vs. SIAE, which will be able to be used to improve Risk Prevention. Radiation is the most significant risk in the SIAS and the SS. Preventive actions will be primary and secondary. ACSOM has shown itself to be a valid tool for the analysis of labour risks.

  5. APPROPRIATE ALLOCATION OF CONTINGENCY USING RISK ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andi Andi

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Many cost overruns in the world of construction are attributable to either unforeseen events or foreseen events for which uncertainty was not appropriately accommodated. It is argued that a significant improvement to project management performance may result from greater attention to the process of analyzing project risks. The objective of this paper is to propose a risk analysis methodology for appropriate allocation of contingency in project cost estimation. In the first step, project risks will be identified. Influence diagramming technique is employed to identify and to show how the risks affect the project cost elements and also the relationships among the risks themselves. The second step is to assess the project costs with regards to the risks under consideration. Using a linguistic approach, the degree of uncertainty of identified project risks is assessed and quantified. The problem of dependency between risks is taken into consideration during this analysis. For the final step, as the main purpose of this paper, a method for allocating appropriate contingency is presented. Two types of contingencies, i.e. project contingency and management reserve are proposed to accommodate the risks. An illustrative example is presented at the end to show the application of the methodology.

  6. Core test reactor shield cooling system analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Larson, E.M.; Elliott, R.D.

    1971-01-01

    System requirements for cooling the shield within the vacuum vessel for the core test reactor are analyzed. The total heat to be removed by the coolant system is less than 22,700 Btu/hr, with an additional 4600 Btu/hr to be removed by the 2-inch thick steel plate below the shield. The maximum temperature of the concrete in the shield can be kept below 200 0 F if the shield plug walls are kept below 160 0 F. The walls of the two ''donut'' shaped shield segments, which are cooled by the water from the shield and vessel cooling system, should operate below 95 0 F. The walls of the center plug, which are cooled with nitrogen, should operate below 100 0 F. (U.S.)

  7. Structural reliability analysis and seismic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hwang, H.; Reich, M.; Shinozuka, M.

    1984-01-01

    This paper presents a reliability analysis method for safety evaluation of nuclear structures. By utilizing this method, it is possible to estimate the limit state probability in the lifetime of structures and to generate analytically the fragility curves for PRA studies. The earthquake ground acceleration, in this approach, is represented by a segment of stationary Gaussian process with a zero mean and a Kanai-Tajimi Spectrum. All possible seismic hazard at a site represented by a hazard curve is also taken into consideration. Furthermore, the limit state of a structure is analytically defined and the corresponding limit state surface is then established. Finally, the fragility curve is generated and the limit state probability is evaluated. In this paper, using a realistic reinforced concrete containment as an example, results of the reliability analysis of the containment subjected to dead load, live load and ground earthquake acceleration are presented and a fragility curve for PRA studies is also constructed

  8. Parametric Analysis of a Hover Test Vehicle using Advanced Test Generation and Data Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gundy-Burlet, Karen; Schumann, Johann; Menzies, Tim; Barrett, Tony

    2009-01-01

    Large complex aerospace systems are generally validated in regions local to anticipated operating points rather than through characterization of the entire feasible operational envelope of the system. This is due to the large parameter space, and complex, highly coupled nonlinear nature of the different systems that contribute to the performance of the aerospace system. We have addressed the factors deterring such an analysis by applying a combination of technologies to the area of flight envelop assessment. We utilize n-factor (2,3) combinatorial parameter variations to limit the number of cases, but still explore important interactions in the parameter space in a systematic fashion. The data generated is automatically analyzed through a combination of unsupervised learning using a Bayesian multivariate clustering technique (AutoBayes) and supervised learning of critical parameter ranges using the machine-learning tool TAR3, a treatment learner. Covariance analysis with scatter plots and likelihood contours are used to visualize correlations between simulation parameters and simulation results, a task that requires tool support, especially for large and complex models. We present results of simulation experiments for a cold-gas-powered hover test vehicle.

  9. Identification of Elderly Falling Risk by Balance Tests Under Dual Tasks Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Ali Aslankhani

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: This study aimed to identify elderly fallers and non-fallers by balance test under dual tasks conditions. Methods & Materials: This study was an analyze-comparative study. Subjects were from three park of Tehran. Subjects were 20 older adults with outhistory of falls (aged 75.95±6.28 years and 21 older adults with a history of 2 or more falls in the previous one year (aged 72.50±7.31 Years . All subjects performed Timed Up & Go test under 3 conditions (TimedUp & Go, Timed Up & Go with numbers counter randomly [TUG cognitive], and Timed Up & Go while carrying a full cup of water [TUG manual]. A multivariate analysis of variance and logistic regression analyses were performed. Results: The results showed significant difference between elderly fallers and non fallers in fall risk composed dependent variable (P=0.0005, as the non fallers had greater score than the elderly fallers. Also, results showed that TUG cognitive has prediction capacity of elderly fall (P=0.013. Conclusion: Consequently, balance under cognitive dual task conditions could be useful method in identification of risk of falling and planning dual task exercise program and physiotherapy to preventfalls.

  10. Methodology for flood risk analysis for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wagner, D.P.; Casada, M.L.; Fussell, J.B.

    1984-01-01

    The methodology for flood risk analysis described here addresses the effects of a flood on nuclear power plant safety systems. Combining the results of this method with the probability of a flood allows the effects of flooding to be included in a probabilistic risk assessment. The five-step methodology includes accident sequence screening to focus the detailed analysis efforts on the accident sequences that are significantly affected by a flood event. The quantitative results include the flood's contribution to system failure probability, accident sequence occurrence frequency and consequence category occurrence frequency. The analysis can be added to existing risk assessments without a significant loss in efficiency. The results of two example applications show the usefulness of the methodology. Both examples rely on the Reactor Safety Study for the required risk assessment inputs and present changes in the Reactor Safety Study results as a function of flood probability

  11. Repeatability study of replicate crash tests: A signal analysis approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seppi, Jeremy; Toczyski, Jacek; Crandall, Jeff R; Kerrigan, Jason

    2017-10-03

    To provide an objective basis on which to evaluate the repeatability of vehicle crash test methods, a recently developed signal analysis method was used to evaluate correlation of sensor time history data between replicate vehicle crash tests. The goal of this study was to evaluate the repeatability of rollover crash tests performed with the Dynamic Rollover Test System (DRoTS) relative to other vehicle crash test methods. Test data from DRoTS tests, deceleration rollover sled (DRS) tests, frontal crash tests, frontal offset crash tests, small overlap crash tests, small overlap impact (SOI) crash tests, and oblique crash tests were obtained from the literature and publicly available databases (the NHTSA vehicle database and the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety TechData) to examine crash test repeatability. Signal analysis of the DRoTS tests showed that force and deformation time histories had good to excellent repeatability, whereas vehicle kinematics showed only fair repeatability due to the vehicle mounting method for one pair of tests and slightly dissimilar mass properties (2.2%) in a second pair of tests. Relative to the DRS, the DRoTS tests showed very similar or higher levels of repeatability in nearly all vehicle kinematic data signals with the exception of global X' (road direction of travel) velocity and displacement due to the functionality of the DRoTS fixture. Based on the average overall scoring metric of the dominant acceleration, DRoTS was found to be as repeatable as all other crash tests analyzed. Vertical force measures showed good repeatability and were on par with frontal crash barrier forces. Dynamic deformation measures showed good to excellent repeatability as opposed to poor repeatability seen in SOI and oblique deformation measures. Using the signal analysis method as outlined in this article, the DRoTS was shown to have the same or better repeatability of crash test methods used in government regulatory and consumer evaluation test

  12. Maritime transportation risk analysis: Review and analysis in light of some foundational issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goerlandt, Floris; Montewka, Jakub

    2015-01-01

    Many methods and applications for maritime transportation risk analysis have been presented in the literature. In parallel, there is a recent focus on foundational issues in risk analysis, with calls for intensified research on fundamental concepts and principles underlying the scientific field. This paper presents a review and analysis of risk definitions, perspectives and scientific approaches to risk analysis found in the maritime transportation application area, focusing on applications addressing accidental risk of shipping in a sea area. For this purpose, a classification of risk definitions, an overview of elements in risk perspectives and a classification of approaches to risk analysis science are applied. Results reveal that in the application area, risk is strongly tied to probability, both in definitions and perspectives, while alternative views exist. A diffuse situation is also found concerning the scientific approach to risk analysis, with realist, proceduralist and constructivist foundations co-existing. Realist approaches dominate the application area. Very few applications systematically account for uncertainty, neither concerning the evidence base nor in relation to the limitations of the risk model in relation to the space of possible outcomes. Some suggestions are made to improve the current situation, aiming to strengthen the scientific basis for risk analysis. - Highlights: • Risk analyses in maritime transportation analysed in light of foundational issues. • Focus on definitions, perspectives and scientific approaches to risk analysis. • Probability-based definitions and realist approaches dominate the field. • Findings support calls for increased focus on foundational issues in risk research. • Some suggestions are made to improve the current situation

  13. 'Mechanical restraint-confounders, risk, alliance score': testing the clinical validity of a new risk assessment instrument.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deichmann Nielsen, Lea; Bech, Per; Hounsgaard, Lise; Alkier Gildberg, Frederik

    2017-08-01

    Unstructured risk assessment, as well as confounders (underlying reasons for the patient's risk behaviour and alliance), risk behaviour, and parameters of alliance, have been identified as factors that prolong the duration of mechanical restraint among forensic mental health inpatients. To clinically validate a new, structured short-term risk assessment instrument called the Mechanical Restraint-Confounders, Risk, Alliance Score (MR-CRAS), with the intended purpose of supporting the clinicians' observation and assessment of the patient's readiness to be released from mechanical restraint. The content and layout of MR-CRAS and its user manual were evaluated using face validation by forensic mental health clinicians, content validation by an expert panel, and pilot testing within two, closed forensic mental health inpatient units. The three sub-scales (Confounders, Risk, and a parameter of Alliance) showed excellent content validity. The clinical validations also showed that MR-CRAS was perceived and experienced as a comprehensible, relevant, comprehensive, and useable risk assessment instrument. MR-CRAS contains 18 clinically valid items, and the instrument can be used to support the clinical decision-making regarding the possibility of releasing the patient from mechanical restraint. The present three studies have clinically validated a short MR-CRAS scale that is currently being psychometrically tested in a larger study.

  14. Association test based on SNP set: logistic kernel machine based test vs. principal component analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Zhao

    Full Text Available GWAS has facilitated greatly the discovery of risk SNPs associated with complex diseases. Traditional methods analyze SNP individually and are limited by low power and reproducibility since correction for multiple comparisons is necessary. Several methods have been proposed based on grouping SNPs into SNP sets using biological knowledge and/or genomic features. In this article, we compare the linear kernel machine based test (LKM and principal components analysis based approach (PCA using simulated datasets under the scenarios of 0 to 3 causal SNPs, as well as simple and complex linkage disequilibrium (LD structures of the simulated regions. Our simulation study demonstrates that both LKM and PCA can control the type I error at the significance level of 0.05. If the causal SNP is in strong LD with the genotyped SNPs, both the PCA with a small number of principal components (PCs and the LKM with kernel of linear or identical-by-state function are valid tests. However, if the LD structure is complex, such as several LD blocks in the SNP set, or when the causal SNP is not in the LD block in which most of the genotyped SNPs reside, more PCs should be included to capture the information of the causal SNP. Simulation studies also demonstrate the ability of LKM and PCA to combine information from multiple causal SNPs and to provide increased power over individual SNP analysis. We also apply LKM and PCA to analyze two SNP sets extracted from an actual GWAS dataset on non-small cell lung cancer.

  15. Stress analysis of shear/compression test

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nishijima, S.; Okada, T.; Ueno, S.

    1997-01-01

    Stress analysis has been made on the glass fiber reinforced plastics (GFRP) subjected to the combined shear and compression stresses by means of finite element method. The two types of experimental set up were analyzed, that is parallel and series method where the specimen were compressed by tilted jigs which enable to apply the combined stresses, to the specimen. Modified Tsai-Hill criterion was employed to judge the failure under the combined stresses that is the shear strength under the compressive stress. The different failure envelopes were obtained between the two set ups. In the parallel system the shear strength once increased with compressive stress then decreased. On the contrary in the series system the shear strength decreased monotonicly with compressive stress. The difference is caused by the different stress distribution due to the different constraint conditions. The basic parameters which control the failure under the combined stresses will be discussed

  16. Space-Time Analysis to Identify Areas at Risk of Mortality from Cardiovascular Disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Poliany C. O. Rodrigues

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed at identifying areas that were at risk of mortality due to cardiovascular disease in residents aged 45 years or older of the cities of Cuiabá and Várzea Grande between 2009 and 2011. We conducted an ecological study of mortality rates related to cardiovascular disease. Mortality rates were calculated for each census tract by the Local Empirical Bayes estimator. High- and low-risk clusters were identified by retrospective space-time scans for each year using the Poisson probability model. We defined the year and month as the temporal analysis unit and the census tracts as the spatial analysis units adjusted by age and sex. The Mann-Whitney U test was used to compare the socioeconomic and environmental variables by risk classification. High-risk clusters showed higher income ratios than low-risk clusters, as did temperature range and atmospheric particulate matter. Low-risk clusters showed higher humidity than high-risk clusters. The Eastern region of Várzea Grande and the central region of Cuiabá were identified as areas at risk of mortality due to cardiovascular disease in individuals aged 45 years or older. High mortality risk was associated with socioeconomic and environmental factors. More high-risk clusters were observed at the end of the dry season.

  17. Frequency of Testing for Dyslipidemia: An Evidence-Based Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Background Dyslipidemias include high levels of total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol, and triglycerides and low levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol. Dyslipidemia is a risk factor for cardiovascular disease, which is a major contributor to mortality in Canada. Approximately 23% of the 2009/11 Canadian Health Measures Survey (CHMS) participants had a high level of LDL cholesterol, with prevalence increasing with age, and approximately 15% had a total cholesterol to HDL ratio above the threshold. Objectives To evaluate the frequency of lipid testing in adults not diagnosed with dyslipidemia and in adults on treatment for dyslipidemia. Research Methods A systematic review of the literature set out to identify randomized controlled trials (RCTs), systematic reviews, health technology assessments (HTAs), and observational studies published between January 1, 2000, and November 29, 2012, that evaluated the frequency of testing for dyslipidemia in the 2 populations. Results Two observational studies assessed the frequency of lipid testing, 1 in individuals not on lipid-lowering medications and 1 in treated individuals. Both studies were based on previously collected data intended for a different objective and, therefore, no conclusions could be reached about the frequency of testing at intervals other than the ones used in the original studies. Given this limitation and generalizability issues, the quality of evidence was considered very low. No evidence for the frequency of lipid testing was identified in the 2 HTAs included. Canadian and international guidelines recommend testing for dyslipidemia in individuals at an increased risk for cardiovascular disease. The frequency of testing recommended is based on expert consensus. Conclusions Conclusions on the frequency of lipid testing could not be made based on the 2 observational studies. Current guidelines recommend lipid testing in adults with increased cardiovascular risk, with

  18. Risk factors for changing test classification in the Danish surveillance program for Salmonella in dairy herds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Lennarth Ravn; Warnick, L. D.; Greiner, M.

    2007-01-01

    test positive to negative, whereas the breed and neighbor factors were not found to be important for small herds. Organic production was associated with remaining test positive, but not with becoming test positive. The results emphasize the importance of external and internal biosecurity measures....... The objective of this study was to evaluate risk factors for changing from test negative to positive, which was indicative of herds becoming infected from one quarter of the year to the next, and risk factors for changing from test positive to negative, which was indicative of herds recovering from infection...

  19. Probabilistic methodology for turbine missile risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Twisdale, L.A.; Dunn, W.L.; Frank, R.A.

    1984-01-01

    A methodology has been developed for estimation of the probabilities of turbine-generated missile damage to nuclear power plant structures and systems. Mathematical models of the missile generation, transport, and impact events have been developed and sequenced to form an integrated turbine missile simulation methodology. Probabilistic Monte Carlo techniques are used to estimate the plant impact and damage probabilities. The methodology has been coded in the TURMIS computer code to facilitate numerical analysis and plant-specific turbine missile probability assessments. Sensitivity analyses have been performed on both the individual models and the integrated methodology, and probabilities have been estimated for a hypothetical nuclear power plant case study. (orig.)

  20. Risk-based configuration control system: Analysis and approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Vesely, W.E.; Lofgren, E.V.

    1989-01-01

    This paper presents an evaluation of the configuration risks associated with the operation of a nuclear power plant and the approaches to control these risks using risk-based configuration control considerations. In that context, the actual and maximum potential configuration risks at a plant are analyzed and the alternative types criteria for a risk-based configuration control systems are described. The risk-based configuration calculations which are studied here focus on the core-melt frequency impacts from given plant configurations. By calculating the core-melt frequency for given configurations, the configurations which cause large core-melt frequency increases can be identified and controlled. The duration time in which the configuration can exist can then be limited or the core-melt frequency level associated with the configuration can be reduced by various actions. Furthermore, maintenances and tests can be scheduled to avoid the configurations which cause large core-melt frequency increases. Present technical specifications do not control many of these configurations which can cause large core-melt frequency increases but instead focus on many risk-unimportant allowed outage times. Hence, risk-based configuration management can be effectively used to reduce core-melt frequency associated risks at a plant and at the same time can provide flexibility in plant operation. The alternative strategies for controlling the core-melt frequency and other risk contributions include: (1) controlling the increased risk level which is associated with the configuration; (2) controlling the individual configuration risk which is associated with a given duration of a configuration; (3) controlling the time period configuration risk from configurations which occur in a time period

  1. Collider detector beam line test table: a structural analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leininger, M.B.

    1983-01-01

    The apparatus which sweeps calorimeter and endwall modules through the beam during testing is called a beam line test table. Because of rather stringent requirements for the physical positioning of the modules an analysis is done here to determine the modifications to the current test table design which will minimize deflections of the table under load

  2. Analysis and optimization of blood-testing procedures.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bar-Lev, S.K.; Boxma, O.J.; Perry, D.; Vastazos, L.P.

    2017-01-01

    This paper is devoted to the performance analysis and optimization of blood testing procedures. We present a queueing model of two queues in series, representing the two stages of a blood-testing procedure. Service (testing) in stage 1 is performed in batches, whereas it is done individually in

  3. Source modelling in seismic risk analysis for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yucemen, M.S.

    1978-12-01

    The proposed probabilistic procedure provides a consistent method for the modelling, analysis and updating of uncertainties that are involved in the seismic risk analysis for nuclear power plants. The potential earthquake activity zones are idealized as point, line or area sources. For these seismic source types, expressions to evaluate their contribution to seismic risk are derived, considering all the possible site-source configurations. The seismic risk at a site is found to depend not only on the inherent randomness of the earthquake occurrences with respect to magnitude, time and space, but also on the uncertainties associated with the predicted values of the seismic and geometric parameters, as well as the uncertainty in the attenuation model. The uncertainty due to the attenuation equation is incorporated into the analysis through the use of random correction factors. The influence of the uncertainty resulting from the insufficient information on the seismic parameters and source geometry is introduced into the analysis by computing a mean risk curve averaged over the various alternative assumptions on the parameters and source geometry. Seismic risk analysis is carried for the city of Denizli, which is located in the seismically most active zone of Turkey. The second analysis is for Akkuyu

  4. Challenges in the vulnerability and risk analysis of critical infrastructures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zio, Enrico

    2016-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to provide a systematic view on the problem of vulnerability and risk analysis of critical infrastructures. Reflections are made on the inherent complexities of these systems, related challenges are identified and possible ways forward for their analysis and management are indicated. Specifically: the framework of vulnerability and risk analysis is examined in relation to its application for the protection and resilience of critical infrastructures; it is argued that the complexity of these systems is a challenging characteristic, which calls for the integration of different modeling perspectives and new approaches of analysis; examples of are given in relation to the Internet and, particularly, the electric power grid, as representative of critical infrastructures and the associated complexity; the integration of different types of analyses and methods of system modeling is put forward for capturing the inherent structural and dynamic complexities of critical infrastructures and eventually evaluating their vulnerability and risk characteristics, so that decisions on protections and resilience actions can be taken with the required confidence. - Highlights: • The problem of the protection and resilience of CIs is the focus of the work. • The vulnerability and risk analysis framework for this is critically examined. • The complexity of CIs is presented as a challenge for system modeling and analysis. • The integration of different modeling perspectives of analysis is put forward as a solution. • The extension of the analysis framework to new methods for dealing with surprises and black swans is advocated.

  5. TRACG post-test analysis of panthers prototype tests of SBWR passive containment condenser

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fitch, J.R.; Billig, P.F.; Abdollahian, D.; Masoni, P.

    1997-01-01

    As part of the validation effort for application of the TRACG code to the Simplified Boiling Water Reactor (SBWR), calculations have been performed for the various test facilities which are part of the SBWR design and technology certification program. These calculations include post-test calculations for tests in the PANTHERS Passive Containment Condenser (PCC) test program. Sixteen tests from the PANTHERS/PCC test matrix were selected for post-test analysis. This set includes three steady-state pure-steam tests, nine steady-state steam-air tests, and four transient tests. The purpose of this paper is to present and discuss the results of the post-test analysis. The author includes a brief description of the PANTHERS/PCC test facility and test matrix, a description of the PANTHERS/PCC post-test TRACG model and the manner in which the various types of tests in the post-test evaluation were simulated, and a presentation of the results of the TRACG simulation

  6. Revealing the underlying drivers of disaster risk: a global analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peduzzi, Pascal

    2017-04-01

    Disasters events are perfect examples of compound events. Disaster risk lies at the intersection of several independent components such as hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Understanding the weight of each component requires extensive standardisation. Here, I show how footprints of past disastrous events were generated using GIS modelling techniques and used for extracting population and economic exposures based on distribution models. Using past event losses, it was possible to identify and quantify a wide range of socio-politico-economic drivers associated with human vulnerability. The analysis was applied to about nine thousand individual past disastrous events covering earthquakes, floods and tropical cyclones. Using a multiple regression analysis on these individual events it was possible to quantify each risk component and assess how vulnerability is influenced by various hazard intensities. The results show that hazard intensity, exposure, poverty, governance as well as other underlying factors (e.g. remoteness) can explain the magnitude of past disasters. Analysis was also performed to highlight the role of future trends in population and climate change and how this may impacts exposure to tropical cyclones in the future. GIS models combined with statistical multiple regression analysis provided a powerful methodology to identify, quantify and model disaster risk taking into account its various components. The same methodology can be applied to various types of risk at local to global scale. This method was applied and developed for the Global Risk Analysis of the Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR). It was first applied on mortality risk in GAR 2009 and GAR 2011. New models ranging from global assets exposure and global flood hazard models were also recently developed to improve the resolution of the risk analysis and applied through CAPRA software to provide probabilistic economic risk assessments such as Average Annual Losses (AAL

  7. Rapid Point-of-Care Diagnostic Test for Syphilis in High-Risk Populations, Manaus, Brazil

    OpenAIRE

    Sabid?, Meritxell; Benzaken, Adele S.; de Andrade Rodrigues, ?nio Jos?; Mayaud, Philippe

    2009-01-01

    : We assessed the acceptability and operational suitability of a rapid point-of-care syphilis test and identified barriers to testing among high-risk groups and healthcare professionals in a sexually transmitted infections clinic in Manaus, Brazil. Use of this test could considerably alleviate the impact of syphilis in hard-to-reach populations in the Amazon region of Brazil.

  8. Aspects of the risk analysis in the process engineering industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hennings, W.; Madjar, M.; Mock, R.; Reer, B.

    1996-01-01

    This document is the result of a multi-discipline working group of a portion of a project called Risk analysis for chemical plants. Within the framework of the project, only selected methods and tools of risk analysis, thus, aspects of method, were able to be discussed and developed further. Case examples from the chemical industry are dealt with in order to discuss the application of a computer assisted quantitative error analysis in this industrial sector. Included is also a comprehensive documentation of the data and results utilised in the examples. figs., tabs., refs

  9. ITC Guidelines on Quality Control in Scoring, Test Analysis, and Reporting of Test Scores

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allalouf, Avi

    2014-01-01

    The Quality Control (QC) Guidelines are intended to increase the efficiency, precision, and accuracy of the scoring, analysis, and reporting process of testing. The QC Guidelines focus on large-scale testing operations where multiple forms of tests are created for use on set dates. However, they may also be used for a wide variety of other testing…

  10. Is adaptation or transformation needed? Active nanomaterials and risk analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuzma, Jennifer; Roberts, John Patrick

    2016-07-01

    Nanotechnology has been a key area of funding and policy for the United States and globally for the past two decades. Since nanotechnology research and development became a focus and nanoproducts began to permeate the market, scholars and scientists have been concerned about how to assess the risks that they may pose to human health and the environment. The newest generation of nanomaterials includes biomolecules that can respond to and influence their environments, and there is a need to explore whether and how existing risk-analysis frameworks are challenged by such novelty. To fill this niche, we used a modified approach of upstream oversight assessment (UOA), a subset of anticipatory governance. We first selected case studies of "active nanomaterials," that are early in research and development and designed for use in multiple sectors, and then considered them under several, key risk-analysis frameworks. We found two ways in which the cases challenge the frameworks. The first category relates to how to assess risk under a narrow framing of the term (direct health and environmental harm), and the second involves the definition of what constitutes a "risk" worthy of assessment and consideration in decision making. In light of these challenges, we propose some changes for risk analysis in the face of active nanostructures in order to improve risk governance.

  11. Cable Hot Shorts and Circuit Analysis in Fire Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    LaChance, Jeffrey; Nowlen, Steven P.; Wyant, Frank

    1999-01-01

    Under existing methods of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), the analysis of fire-induced circuit faults has typically been conducted on a simplistic basis. In particular, those hot-short methodologies that have been applied remain controversial in regards to the scope of the assessments, the underlying methods, and the assumptions employed. To address weaknesses in fire PRA methodologies, the USNRC has initiated a fire risk analysis research program that includes a task for improving the tools for performing circuit analysis. The objective of this task is to obtain a better understanding of the mechanisms linking fire-induced cable damage to potentially risk-significant failure modes of power, control, and instrumentation cables. This paper discusses the current status of the circuit analysis task

  12. Internal Impingement of the Shoulder: A Risk of False Positive Test Outcomes in External Impingement Tests?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tim Leschinger

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. External impingement tests are considered as being particularly reliable for identifying subacromial and coracoid shoulder impingement mechanisms. The purpose of the present study was to evaluate if these tests are likely to provoke an internal shoulder impingement mechanism which, in cases of a pathologic condition, can lead to a positive test result. Method. In 37 subjects, the mechanical contact between the glenoid rim and the rotator cuff (RC was measured quantitatively and qualitatively in external impingement test positions using an open MRI system. Results. Mechanical contact of the supraspinatus with the posterosuperior glenoid was present in 30 subjects in the Neer test. In the Hawkins test, the subscapularis was in contact with the anterosuperior glenoid in 33 subjects and the supraspinatus in 18. In the horizontal impingement test, anterosuperior contact of the supraspinatus with the glenoid was identified in 35 subjects. Conclusion. The Neer, Hawkins, and horizontal impingement tests are likely to provoke the mechanism of an internal shoulder impingement. A posterosuperior internal impingement mechanism is being provoked predominately in the Neer test. The Hawkins test narrows the distance between the insertions of the subscapularis and supraspinatus and the anterosuperior labrum, which leads to an anterosuperior impingement mechanism.

  13. Cyber Risk Management for Critical Infrastructure: A Risk Analysis Model and Three Case Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paté-Cornell, M-Elisabeth; Kuypers, Marshall; Smith, Matthew; Keller, Philip

    2018-02-01

    Managing cyber security in an organization involves allocating the protection budget across a spectrum of possible options. This requires assessing the benefits and the costs of these options. The risk analyses presented here are statistical when relevant data are available, and system-based for high-consequence events that have not happened yet. This article presents, first, a general probabilistic risk analysis framework for cyber security in an organization to be specified. It then describes three examples of forward-looking analyses motivated by recent cyber attacks. The first one is the statistical analysis of an actual database, extended at the upper end of the loss distribution by a Bayesian analysis of possible, high-consequence attack scenarios that may happen in the future. The second is a systems analysis of cyber risks for a smart, connected electric grid, showing that there is an optimal level of connectivity. The third is an analysis of sequential decisions to upgrade the software of an existing cyber security system or to adopt a new one to stay ahead of adversaries trying to find their way in. The results are distributions of losses to cyber attacks, with and without some considered countermeasures in support of risk management decisions based both on past data and anticipated incidents. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  14. Risk analysis of radioactive waste management systems in Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wingender, H.J.

    1978-01-01

    Within the scope of a system study, ''Radioactive wastes in the Federal Republic of Germany,'' performed from 1974 through 1976, the questions of risk assessment were investigated. A risk analysis of a high-level waste (HLW) management system was performed. The results of the HLW tank storage are that the risk expectation value is 700 nJ/kg x RBE (7 x 10 -5 rem) per year for atmospheric release. The discussion of the main contributing accidents shows the possibility of reducing the risk by a technical means. A qualitative comparison on the release basis with the results of the WASH-1400 report shows significant differences that can be explained by the different methodologies applied. The risk analysis activities have led to a comprehensive risk assessment project, which was recently started. The projected includes research and development tasks concerning nuclide migration and transport to the ecosphere, nuclide mobilization by various mechanisms, methodology problems, data collection, computer code development, as well as risk analyses of waste management facilities. It is intended to round off the project with risk analyses of spent fuel element transport, storage, and reprocessing

  15. Correlation analysis for forced vibration test of the Hualien large scale seismic test (LSST) program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sugawara, Y.; Sugiyama, T.; Kobayashi, T.; Yamaya, H.; Kitamura, E.

    1995-01-01

    The correlation analysis for a forced vibration test of a 1/4-scale containment SSI test model constructed in Hualien, Taiwan was carried out for the case of after backfilling. Prior to this correlation analysis, the structural properties were revised to adjust the calculated fundamental frequency in the fixed base condition to that derived from the test results. A correlation analysis was carried out using the Lattice Model which was able to estimate the soil-structure effects with embedment. The analysis results coincide well with test results and it is concluded that the mathematical soil-structure interaction model established by the correlation analysis is efficient in estimating the dynamic soil-structure interaction effect with embedment. This mathematical model will be applied as a basic model for simulation analysis of earthquake observation records. (author). 3 refs., 12 figs., 2 tabs

  16. Fire risk analysis in ITER tritium building

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lignini, Franck; Uzan-Elbez, Joelle; Girard, Jean-Philippe; Porfiri, Maria Teresa; Rodriguez-Rodrigo, Lina

    2005-01-01

    Events, such as fire, have been considered in ITER documentation of low probability and a general approach has been defined in [Technical basis for the ITER final design, EDA Documentation Series I, No. 22, IAEA, Vienna, 2001] to be developed later for the ITER specific site. It was said that 'these hazards will be treated according to the industrial safety regulations and practices of the host country'. In the framework of studies for the European ITER site in Cadarache, an assessment of fire hazard has been done in order to ensure compliance with French safety requirements. In this report, a summary of existing laws is presented and an example of the deterministic approach to be followed for the preliminary safety report (PSR) is given on the analysis of tritium building design

  17. DORIAN, Bayes Method Plant Age Risk Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atwood, C.L.

    2002-01-01

    1 - Description of program or function: DORIAN is an integrated package for performing Bayesian aging analysis of reliability data; e.g. for identifying trends in component failure rates and/or outage durations as a function of time. The user must specify several alternative hypothesized 'aging models' (i.e., possible trends) along prior probabilities indicating the subject probability that each trend is actually the correct one. DORIAN then uses component failure and/or repair data over time to update these prior probabilities and develop a posterior probability for each aging model, representing the probability that each model is the correct one in light of the observed data rather than a priori. Mean, median, and 5. and 95. percentile trends are also compiled from the posterior probabilities. 2 - Method of solution: DORIAN carries out a Bayesian analysis of failure data and a prior distribution on a time-dependent failure rate to obtain a posterior distribution on the failure rate. The form of the time-dependent failure rate is arbitrary, because DORIAN approximates the form by a step-function, constant within specified time intervals. Similarly, the parameters may have any prior distribution, because DORIAN uses a discrete distribution to approximate this. Likewise, the database file produced by DORIAN approximates the entire range of possible failure rates or outage durations developed by means of a discrete probability distribution containing no more than 20 distinct values with their probabilities. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: Prior distribution is discrete with up to 25 values. Up to 60 times are accommodated in the discrete time history

  18. Depression and risk of fracture and bone loss: an updated meta-analysis of prospective studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Q; Liu, B; Tonmoy, S

    2018-03-12

    This meta-analysis pooled results from 23 qualifying individual cohort studies and found that depression was significantly associated with an increased risk of fractures and bone loss. The association between depression and risk of fracture remains controversial. We conducted a comprehensive meta-analysis to examine the effect of depression on the risk of osteoporotic fractures and bone loss. We searched databases and reviewed citations in relevant articles for eligible cohort studies. Two investigators independently conducted study selection, appraisal, and data abstraction through the use of a standardized protocol. Random effect models were used for meta-analysis. Cochrane Q and I 2 statistics were used to assess heterogeneity. Funnel plots and rank correlation tests were used to evaluate publication bias. Twenty-three studies were included for meta-analysis. In studies that reported hazard ratio (HR) as the outcome (nine studies [n = 309,862]), depression was associated with 26% increase in fracture risk (HR = 1.26, 95% CI, 1.10-1.43, p meta-analysis having modified inclusion criteria and in different subgroup analyses as well. Significant heterogeneity was observed in the meta-analysis; however, no significant publication bias was detected. Depression is associated with a significant increased risk in fracture and bone loss. Effective prevention may decrease such risk.

  19. A performance-oriented and risk-based regulation for containment testing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dey, M.

    1994-01-01

    In August 1992, the NRC initiated a major initiative to develop requirements for containment testing that are less prescriptive, and more performance-oriented and risk-based. This action was a result of public comments and several studies that concluded that the economic burden of certain, present containment testing requirements are not commensurate with their safety benefits. The rulemaking will include consideration of relaxing the allowable containment leakage rate, increasing the interval for the integrated containment test, and establishing intervals for the local containment leak rate tests based on their performance. A study has been conducted to provide technical information for establishing the performance criteria for containment tests, the allowable leakage rate, commensurate with its significance to total public risk. The study used results of a recent comprehensive study conducted by the NRC, NUREG-1150, 'Severe Accident Risks: An Assessment for Five U.S. Nuclear Power Plants,' to examine the sensitivity of containment leakage to public risk. Risk was found to be insensitive to containment leakage rate up to levels of about 100 percent-volume per day for certain types of containments. PRA methods have also been developed to establish risk-based intervals for containment tests based on their past experience. Preliminary evaluations show that increasing the interval for the integrated containment leakage test from three times to once every ten years would have an insignificant impact on public risk. Preliminary analyses of operational experience data for local leak rate tests show that performance-based testing, valves and penetrations that perform well are tested less frequently, is feasible with marginal impact on safety. The above technical studies are being used to develop efficient (cost-effective) requirements for containment tests. (author). 4 refs., 2 figs

  20. Underground Test Area Subproject Phase I Data Analysis Task. Volume VII - Tritium Transport Model Documentation Package

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1996-12-01

    Volume VII of the documentation for the Phase I Data Analysis Task performed in support of the current Regional Flow Model, Transport Model, and Risk Assessment for the Nevada Test Site Underground Test Area Subproject contains the tritium transport model documentation. Because of the size and complexity of the model area, a considerable quantity of data was collected and analyzed in support of the modeling efforts. The data analysis task was consequently broken into eight subtasks, and descriptions of each subtask's activities are contained in one of the eight volumes that comprise the Phase I Data Analysis Documentation.

  1. Risk-based analysis methods applied to nuclear power plant technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wagner, D.P.; Minton, L.A.; Gaertner, J.P.

    1989-01-01

    A computer-aided methodology and practical applications of risk-based evaluation of technical specifications are described. The methodology, developed for use by the utility industry, is a part of the overall process of improving nuclear power plant technical specifications. The SOCRATES computer program uses the results of a probabilistic risk assessment or a system-level risk analysis to calculate changes in risk due to changes in the surveillance test interval and/or the allowed outage time stated in the technical specification. The computer program can accommodate various testing strategies (such as staggered or simultaneous testing) to allow modeling of component testing as it is carried out at the plant. The methods and computer program are an integral part of a larger decision process aimed at determining benefits from technical specification changes. These benefits can include cost savings to the utilities by reducing forced shutdowns and decreasing labor requirements for test and maintenance activities, with no adverse impacts on risk. The methodology and the SOCRATES computer program have been used extensively toe valuate several actual technical specifications in case studies demonstrating the methods. Summaries of these applications demonstrate the types of results achieved and the usefulness of the risk-based evaluation in improving the technical specifications

  2. Quantitative risk assessment using the capacity-demand analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morgenroth, M.; Donnelly, C.R.; Westermann, G.D.; Huang, J.H.S.; Lam, T.M.

    1999-01-01

    The hydroelectric industry's recognition of the importance of avoiding unexpected failure, or forced outages, led to the development of probabilistic, or risk-based, methods in order to attempt to quantify exposures. Traditionally, such analysis has been carried out by qualitative assessments, relying on experience and sound engineering judgment to determine the optimum time to maintain, repair or replace a part or system. Depending on the nature of the problem, however, and the level of experience of those included in the decision making process, it is difficult to find a balance between acting proactively and accepting some amount of risk. The development of a practical means for establishing the probability of failure of any part or system, based on the determination of the statistical distribution of engineering properties such as acting stresses, is discussed. The capacity-demand analysis methodology, coupled with probablistic, risk-based analysis, permits all the factors associated with a decision to rehabilitate or replace a part, including the risks associated with the timing of the decision, to be assessed in a transparent and defendable manner. The methodology does not eliminate judgment altogether, but does move it from the level of estimating the risk of failure to the lower level of estimating variability in material properties, uncertainty in loading, and the uncertainties inherent in any engineering analysis. The method was successfully used in 1998 to carry out a comprehensive, economic risk analysis for the entire water conveyance system of a 90 year old hydropower station. The analysis included a number of diverse parts ranging from rock slopes and aging steel and concrete conduits, and the method allowed a rational assessment of the risks associated with reach of these varied parts to be determined, permitting the essential remedial works to be prioritized. 14 refs., 4 figs

  3. Predicting adolescent's cyberbullying behavior: A longitudinal risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barlett, Christopher P

    2015-06-01

    The current study used the risk factor approach to test the unique and combined influence of several possible risk factors for cyberbullying attitudes and behavior using a four-wave longitudinal design with an adolescent US sample. Participants (N = 96; average age = 15.50 years) completed measures of cyberbullying attitudes, perceptions of anonymity, cyberbullying behavior, and demographics four times throughout the academic school year. Several logistic regression equations were used to test the contribution of these possible risk factors. Results showed that (a) cyberbullying attitudes and previous cyberbullying behavior were important unique risk factors for later cyberbullying behavior, (b) anonymity and previous cyberbullying behavior were valid risk factors for later cyberbullying attitudes, and (c) the likelihood of engaging in later cyberbullying behavior increased with the addition of risk factors. Overall, results show the unique and combined influence of such risk factors for predicting later cyberbullying behavior. Results are discussed in terms of theory. Copyright © 2015 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Results and Analysis from Space Suit Joint Torque Testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matty, Jennifer

    2010-01-01

    This joint mobility KC lecture included information from two papers, "A Method for and Issues Associated with the Determination of Space Suit Joint Requirements" and "Results and Analysis from Space Suit Joint Torque Testing," as presented for the International Conference on Environmental Systems in 2009 and 2010, respectively. The first paper discusses historical joint torque testing methodologies and approaches that were tested in 2008 and 2009. The second paper discusses the testing that was completed in 2009 and 2010.

  5. Explaining HIV Risk Multiplexity: A Social Network Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Felsher, Marisa; Koku, Emmanuel

    2018-04-21

    Risk multiplexity (i.e., overlap in drug-use, needle exchange and sexual relations) is a known risk factor for HIV. However, little is known about predictors of multiplexity. This study uses egocentric data from the Colorado Springs study to examine how individual, behavioral and social network factors influence engagement in multiplex risk behavior. Analyses revealed that compared to Whites, Hispanics were significantly more likely to engage in risk multiplexity and Blacks less so. Respondents who were similar to each other (e.g., in terms of race) had significantly higher odds of being in risk multiplex relationships, and respondents' risk perceptions and network size were significantly associated with engaging in multiplex risk behaviors. Findings from interaction analysis showed the effect of knowing someone with HIV on the odds of multiplexity depends partly on whether respondents' know their HIV status. Findings suggest that demographics, HIV behaviors and network factors impact engagement in multiplex risk behaviors, highlighting the need for multi-level interventions aimed at reducing HIV risk behavior.

  6. Sexual-risk behaviour and HIV testing among Canadian snowbirds who winter in Florida.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mairs, Katie; Bullock, Sandra L

    2013-06-01

    Rates of HIV (human immunodeficiency virus) and sexual-risk behaviour for those aged 50 and over in the United States are highest and increasing in Florida, where many Canadian "snowbirds" winter. This pilot study examined the sexual-risk behaviour and predictors of HIV testing in a convenience sample of Canadian snowbirds who winter in Florida (n = 265). Multivariate logistic regression analyses revealed that the odds of testing were increased for the unmarried, those aged 50-64, those who had talked to a doctor about sexual-risk behaviour since age 50, and those who agreed that sex was important in their lives. Dating males were more likely to test than non-dating males. Dating females were not more likely to test than non-dating females; and males who dated were 13.6 times more likely to test than females who dated. Further research will improve understanding of Canadian snowbirds' sexual interactions and HIV-testing behaviour.

  7. Risk analysis. HIV / AIDS country profile: Senegal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1996-12-01

    Since the first acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) case was confirmed in 1986, Senegal has conducted an aggressive prevention campaign. Senegal's National AIDS Committee has noted the contributions of poverty and migration to the spread of AIDS. By June 1994, 1297 AIDS cases had been reported and an estimated 500,000 people (1.4% of the population) were infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-1 and 2. The highest rate of HIV infection (14%) exists among commercial sex workers. At present, HIV/AIDS cases are concentrated in Dakar, Kaolack, the Matam region, and Ziguinchor; however, the growing importance of inter-regional trading is expected to spread HIV to the smaller towns and rural areas. Also salient is the recent devaluation by 50% of the CFA franc, which has reduced the public sector workforce and led many poor urban residents into commercial sex work. CFA devaluation has made Senegal attractive to tourists and business visitors--another factor responsible for growth of the legalized commercial sex industry. Although sex workers are instructed in condom use and tested annually for HIV, only 850 of the 2000 registered sex workers have reported for check-ups, and the majority of prostitutes are unregistered. Senegal's AIDS Plan for 1994-98 focuses on care of AIDS patients, pressures placed on family structures by HIV, and AIDS-related erosions in the status of women. Each health service region has its own local plan for AIDS/HIV and sexually transmitted diseases, supervised by a regional committee. Public education has involved outreach to religious leaders, promotion of affordable condoms, and distribution of over 75,000 leaflets to key target populations. About US $16 million of the $25,688,875-budget HIV/AIDS program for 1994-98 was pledged by external donors.

  8. Test and cull of high risk Coxiella burnetii infected pregnant dairy goats is not feasible due to poor test performance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hogerwerf, L.; Koop, G.; Klinkenberg, D.; Roest, H.J.; Vellema, P.; Nielen, M.

    2014-01-01

    A major human Q fever epidemic occurred in The Netherlands during 2007–2009. In response, all pregnant goats from infected herds were culled before the 2010 kidding season without individual testing. The aim of this study was to assess whether high risk animals from recently infected naive herds can

  9. Test and cull of high risk Coxiella burnetii infected pregnant dairy goats is not feasible due to poor test performance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hogerwerf, Lenny; Koop, Gerrit; Klinkenberg, Don; Roest, Hendrik I J; Vellema, Piet; Nielen, Mirjam

    2014-01-01

    A major human Q fever epidemic occurred in The Netherlands during 2007-2009. In response, all pregnant goats from infected herds were culled before the 2010 kidding season without individual testing. The aim of this study was to assess whether high risk animals from recently infected naive herds can

  10. Tutorial: Parallel Computing of Simulation Models for Risk Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reilly, Allison C; Staid, Andrea; Gao, Michael; Guikema, Seth D

    2016-10-01

    Simulation models are widely used in risk analysis to study the effects of uncertainties on outcomes of interest in complex problems. Often, these models are computationally complex and time consuming to run. This latter point may be at odds with time-sensitive evaluations or may limit the number of parameters that are considered. In this article, we give an introductory tutorial focused on parallelizing simulation code to better leverage modern computing hardware, enabling risk analysts to better utilize simulation-based methods for quantifying uncertainty in practice. This article is aimed primarily at risk analysts who use simulation methods but do not yet utilize parallelization to decrease the computational burden of these models. The discussion is focused on conceptual aspects of embarrassingly parallel computer code and software considerations. Two complementary examples are shown using the languages MATLAB and R. A brief discussion of hardware considerations is located in the Appendix. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  11. Analysis of Blade Fragment Risk at a Wind Energy Facility

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Simms, David A [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Larwood, Scott [University of the Pacific

    2018-04-06

    An analysis was performed to determine the risk posed by wind turbine fragments on roads and buildings at the National Wind Technology Center at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The authors used a previously developed model of fragment trajectory and took into account the wind speed/direction distribution at the site and the probability of rotor failure. The risk was assessed by determining the likelihood of impact and related consequences. For both the roads and buildings, the risk varied from low to routine, which was considered acceptable. The analysis was compared with previous recommendations on wind turbine setback distances. The results showed that a setback to property lines of 2 times the overall turbine height would be acceptable. However, the setback to dwellings should probably be increased from 3 to 3.5 times the overall turbine height for an acceptable risk.

  12. ANALYSIS METHODS OF BANKRUPTCY RISK IN ROMANIAN ENERGY MINING INDUSTRY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CORICI MARIAN CATALIN

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The study is an analysis of bankruptcy risk and assessing the economic performance of the entity in charge of energy mining industry from southwest region. The scientific activity assesses the risk of bankruptcy using score’s method and some indicators witch reflecting the results obtained and elements from organization balance sheet involved in mining and energy which contributes to the stability of the national energy system. Analysis undertaken is focused on the application of the business organization models that allow a comprehensive assessment of the risk of bankruptcy and be an instrument of its forecast. In this study will be highlighted developments bankruptcy risk within the organization through the Altman model and Conan-Holder model in order to show a versatile image on the organization's ability to ensure business continuity

  13. 'Test n Treat (TnT)': a cluster-randomised feasibility trial of frequent, rapid-testing and same-day, on-site treatment to reduce rates of chlamydia in high-risk further education college students: statistical analysis plan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Rachel; Oakeshott, Pippa; Kerry-Barnard, Sarah; Reid, Fiona

    2018-06-05

    There are high rates of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) in ethnically diverse, sexually active students aged 16-24 years attending London further education (FE) colleges. However, uptake of chlamydia screening remains low. The TnT study aims to assess the feasibility of conducting a future trial in FE colleges to investigate if frequent, rapid, on-site testing and treatment (TnT) reduces chlamydia rates. This article presents the statistical analysis plan for the main study publication as approved and signed off by the Trial Management Group prior to the first data extraction for the final report. TnT is a cluster-randomised feasibility trial conducted over 7 months with parallel qualitative and economic assessments. Colleges will be randomly allocated into the intervention (TnT) or the control group (no TnT). Six FE colleges in London will be included. At each college for 2 days, 80 consecutive sexually active students aged 16-24 years (total 480 students across all six colleges) will be recruited from public areas and asked to provide baseline samples. One and 4 months after recruitment intervention colleges will be visited on two consecutive days by the TnT team where participating students will be texted and invited to come for same-day, on-site, rapid chlamydia testing and, if positive, treatment. Participants in the control colleges will receive 'thank you' texts 1 and 4 months after recruitment. Seven months after recruitment, participants from both groups will be invited to complete questionnaires and provide samples for TnT. All samples will be tested, and same-day treatment offered to participants with positive results. Key feasibility outcomes include: recruitment rates, testing and treatment uptake rates (at 1 and 4 months) and follow-up rates (at 7 months). ISRCTN 58038795 . Registered on 31 August 2016.

  14. Burst Test Qualification Analysis of DWPF Canister-Plug Weld

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gupta, N.K.; Gong, Chung.

    1995-02-01

    The DWPF canister closure system uses resistance welding for sealing the canister nozzle and plug to ensure leak tightness. The welding group at SRTC is using the burst test to qualify this seal weld in lieu of the shear test in ASME B ampersand PV Code, Section IX, paragraph QW-196. The burst test is considered simpler and more appropriate than the shear test for this application. Although the geometry, loading and boundary conditions are quite different in the two tests, structural analyses show similarity in the failure mode of the shear test in paragraph QW-196 and the burst test on the DWPF canister nozzle Non-linear structural analyses are performed using finite element techniques to study the failure mode of the two tests. Actual test geometry and realistic stress strain data for the 304L stainless steel and the weld material are used in the analyses. The finite element models are loaded until failure strains are reached. The failure modes in both tests are shear at the failure points. Based on these observations, it is concluded that the use of a burst test in lieu of the shear test for qualifying the canister-plug weld is acceptable. The burst test analysis for the canister-plug also yields the burst pressures which compare favorably with the actual pressure found during burst tests. Thus, the analysis also provides an estimate of the safety margins in the design of these vessels

  15. Integrated Data Collection Analysis (IDCA) Program - SSST Testing Methods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sandstrom, Mary M. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Brown, Geoffrey W. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Preston, Daniel N. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Pollard, Colin J. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Warner, Kirstin F. [Naval Surface Warfare Center (NSWC), Indian Head, MD (United States). Indian Head Division; Remmers, Daniel L. [Naval Surface Warfare Center (NSWC), Indian Head, MD (United States). Indian Head Division; Sorensen, Daniel N. [Naval Surface Warfare Center (NSWC), Indian Head, MD (United States). Indian Head Division; Whinnery, LeRoy L. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Phillips, Jason J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Shelley, Timothy J. [Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms (ATF), Huntsville, AL (United States); Reyes, Jose A. [Applied Research Associates, Tyndall AFB, FL (United States); Hsu, Peter C. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Reynolds, John G. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2013-03-25

    The Integrated Data Collection Analysis (IDCA) program is conducting a proficiency study for Small- Scale Safety and Thermal (SSST) testing of homemade explosives (HMEs). Described here are the methods used for impact, friction, electrostatic discharge, and differential scanning calorimetry analysis during the IDCA program. These methods changed throughout the Proficiency Test and the reasons for these changes are documented in this report. The most significant modifications in standard testing methods are: 1) including one specified sandpaper in impact testing among all the participants, 2) diversifying liquid test methods for selected participants, and 3) including sealed sample holders for thermal testing by at least one participant. This effort, funded by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), is putting the issues of safe handling of these materials in perspective with standard military explosives. The study is adding SSST testing results for a broad suite of different HMEs to the literature. Ultimately the study will suggest new guidelines and methods and possibly establish the SSST testing accuracies needed to develop safe handling practices for HMEs. Each participating testing laboratory uses identical test materials and preparation methods wherever possible. The testing performers involved are Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Indian Head Division, Naval Surface Warfare Center, (NSWC IHD), Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), and Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL/RXQL). These tests are conducted as a proficiency study in order to establish some consistency in test protocols, procedures, and experiments and to compare results when these testing variables cannot be made consistent.

  16. Environmental Risk Assessment: Spatial Analysis of Chemical Hazards and Risks in South Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, H.; Heo, S.; Kim, M.; Lee, W. K.; Jong-Ryeul, S.

    2017-12-01

    This study identified chemical hazard and risk levels in Korea by analyzing the spatial distribution of chemical factories and accidents. The number of chemical factories and accidents in 5-km2 grids were used as the attribute value for spatial analysis. First, semi-variograms were conducted to examine spatial distribution patterns and to identify spatial autocorrelation of chemical factories and accidents. Semi-variograms explained that the spatial distribution of chemical factories and accidents were spatially autocorrelated. Second, the results of the semi-variograms were used in Ordinary Kriging to estimate chemical hazard and risk level. The level values were extracted from the Ordinary Kriging result and their spatial similarity was examined by juxtaposing the two values with respect to their location. Six peaks were identified in both the hazard and risk estimation result, and the peaks correlated with major cities in Korea. Third, the estimated hazard and risk levels were classified with geometrical interval and could be classified into four quadrants: Low Hazard and Low Risk (LHLR), Low Hazard and High Risk (LHHR), High Hazard and Low Risk (HHLR), and High Hazard and High Risk (HHHR). The 4 groups identified different chemical safety management issues in Korea; relatively safe LHLR group, many chemical reseller factories were found in HHLR group, chemical transportation accidents were in the LHHR group, and an abundance of factories and accidents were in the HHHR group. Each quadrant represented different safety management obstacles in Korea, and studying spatial differences can support the establishment of an efficient risk management plan.

  17. Dealing with uncertainty and pursuing superior technology options in risk management-The inherency risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helland, Aasgeir

    2009-01-01

    Current regulatory systems focus on the state of scientific evidence as the predominant factor for how to handle risks to human health and the environment. However, production and assessment of risk information are costly and time-consuming, and firms have an intrinsic disincentive to produce and distribute information about risks of their products as this could endanger their production opportunities and sales. An emphasis on more or better science may result in insufficient thought and attention going into the exploration of technology alternatives, and that risk management policies miss out on the possible achievement of a more favorable set of consequences. In this article, a method is proposed that combines risk assessment with the search for alternative technological options as a part of the risk management procedure. The method proposed is the inherency risk analysis where the first stage focuses on the original agent subject to investigation, the second stage focuses on identifying technological options whereas the third stage reviews the different alternatives, searching for the most attractive tradeoffs between costs and inherent safety. This is then used as a fundament for deciding which technology option to pursue. This method aims at providing a solution-focused, systematic technology-based approach for addressing and setting priorities for environmental problems. By combining risk assessment with a structured approach to identify superior technology options within a risk management system, the result could very well be a win-win situation for both company and the environment.

  18. Hierarchical Modelling of Flood Risk for Engineering Decision Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Custer, Rocco

    protection structures in the hierarchical flood protection system - is identified. To optimise the design of protection structures, fragility and vulnerability models must allow for consideration of decision alternatives. While such vulnerability models are available for large protection structures (e...... systems, as well as the implementation of the flood risk analysis methodology and the vulnerability modelling approach are illustrated with an example application. In summary, the present thesis provides a characterisation of hierarchical flood protection systems as well as several methodologies to model...... and robust. Traditional risk management solutions, e.g. dike construction, are not particularly flexible, as they are difficult to adapt to changing risk. Conversely, the recent concept of integrated flood risk management, entailing a combination of several structural and non-structural risk management...

  19. Surplus analysis of Sparre Andersen insurance risk processes

    CERN Document Server

    Willmot, Gordon E

    2017-01-01

    This carefully written monograph covers the Sparre Andersen process in an actuarial context using the renewal process as the model for claim counts. A unified reference on Sparre Andersen (renewal risk) processes is included, often missing from existing literature. The authors explore recent results and analyse various risk theoretic quantities associated with the event of ruin, including the time of ruin and the deficit of ruin. Particular attention is given to the explicit identification of defective renewal equation components, which are needed to analyse various risk theoretic quantities and are also relevant in other subject areas of applied probability such as dams and storage processes, as well as queuing theory. Aimed at researchers interested in risk/ruin theory and related areas, this work will also appeal to graduate students in classical and modern risk theory and Gerber-Shiu analysis.

  20. Hierarchic Analysis Method to Evaluate Rock Burst Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming Ji

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to reasonably evaluate the risk of rock bursts in mines, the factors impacting rock bursts and the existing grading criterion on the risk of rock bursts were studied. By building a model of hierarchic analysis method, the natural factors, technology factors, and management factors that influence rock bursts were analyzed and researched, which determined the degree of each factor’s influence (i.e., weight and comprehensive index. Then the grade of rock burst risk was assessed. The results showed that the assessment level generated by the model accurately reflected the actual risk degree of rock bursts in mines. The model improved the maneuverability and practicability of existing evaluation criteria and also enhanced the accuracy and science of rock burst risk assessment.