Foundations of Risk Analysis

CERN Document Server

Aven, Terje

2012-01-01

Foundations of Risk Analysis presents the issues core to risk analysis - understanding what risk means, expressing risk, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real problems. The author provides the readers with the knowledge and basic thinking they require to successfully manage risk and uncertainty to support decision making. This updated edition reflects recent developments on risk and uncertainty concepts, representations and treatment. New material in Foundations of Risk Analysis includes:An up to date presentation of how to understand, define and

Probabilistic risk analysis and terrorism risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Ezell, Barry Charles; Bennett, Steven P; von Winterfeldt, Detlof; Sokolowski, John; Collins, Andrew J

2010-04-01

Since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and the subsequent establishment of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), considerable efforts have been made to estimate the risks of terrorism and the cost effectiveness of security policies to reduce these risks. DHS, industry, and the academic risk analysis communities have all invested heavily in the development of tools and approaches that can assist decisionmakers in effectively allocating limited resources across the vast array of potential investments that could mitigate risks from terrorism and other threats to the homeland. Decisionmakers demand models, analyses, and decision support that are useful for this task and based on the state of the art. Since terrorism risk analysis is new, no single method is likely to meet this challenge. In this article we explore a number of existing and potential approaches for terrorism risk analysis, focusing particularly on recent discussions regarding the applicability of probabilistic and decision analytic approaches to bioterrorism risks and the Bioterrorism Risk Assessment methodology used by the DHS and criticized by the National Academies and others.

HIV test offers and acceptance: New York State findings from the behavioral risk factor surveillance system and the National HIV behavioral surveillance, 2011-2012.

Science.gov (United States)

John Leung, Shu-Yin; Sinclair, Amber H; Battles, Haven B; Swain, Carol-Ann E; French, Patrick Tyler; Anderson, Bridget J; Sowizral, Mycroft J; Ruberto, Rachael; Brissette, Ian; Lillquist, Patricia; Smith, Lou C

2015-01-01

The New York State HIV testing law requires that patients aged 13-64 years be offered HIV testing in health care settings. We investigated the extent to which HIV testing was offered and accepted during the 24 months after law enactment. We added local questions to the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) and the National HIV Behavioral Surveillance (NHBS) surveys asking respondents aged 18-64 years whether they were offered an HIV test in health care settings, and whether they had accepted testing. Statewide prevalence estimates of test offers and acceptance were obtained from a combined 2011-2012 BRFSS sample (N = 6,223). Local estimates for 2 high-risk populations were obtained from NHBS 2011 men who have sex with men (N = 329) and 2012 injection drug users (N = 188) samples. BRFSS data showed that 73% of New Yorkers received care in any health care setting in the past 12 months, of whom 25% were offered an HIV test. Sixty percent accepted the test when offered. The levels of test offer increased from 20% to 29% over time, whereas acceptance levels decreased from 68% to 53%. NHBS data showed that 81% of men who have sex with men received care, of whom 43% were offered an HIV test. Eighty-eight percent accepted the test when offered. Eighty-five percent of injection drug users received care, of whom 63% were offered an HIV test, and 63% accepted the test when offered. We found evidence of partial and increasing implementation of the HIV testing law. Importantly, these studies demonstrated New Yorkers' willingness to accept an offered HIV test as part of routine care in health care settings.

Adaptive Failure Identification for Healthcare Risk Analysis and Its Application on E-Healthcare

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kuo-Chung Chu

2014-01-01

Full Text Available To satisfy the requirement for diverse risk preferences, we propose a generic risk priority number (GRPN function that assigns a risk weight to each parameter such that they represent individual organization/department/process preferences for the parameters. This research applies GRPN function-based model to differentiate the types of risk, and primary data are generated through simulation. We also conduct sensitivity analysis on correlation and regression to compare it with the traditional RPN (TRPN. The proposed model outperforms the TRPN model and provides a practical, effective, and adaptive method for risk evaluation. In particular, the defined GRPN function offers a new method to prioritize failure modes in failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA. The different risk preferences considered in the healthcare example show that the modified FMEA model can take into account the various risk factors and prioritize failure modes more accurately. In addition, the model also can apply to a generic e-healthcare service environment with a hierarchical architecture.

Consumer perceptions of prescription and over-the-counter drug advertisements with promotional offers.

Science.gov (United States)

Aikin, Kathryn J; Sullivan, Helen W; O'Donoghue, Amie C; Betts, Kevin R

2016-01-01

Information on the effects of promotional offers in direct-to-consumer prescription drug ads is limited. In two studies, we examined the effect of promotional offers (e.g., money-back guarantee) and ad type (creating prescription and over-the-counter drug ads by varying the presence of benefit and risk information). We found little effect of promotional offers. Adding benefit (risk) information to the ad increased consumers' knowledge of the benefit (risk) information and their efficacy (risk) perceptions. In most cases, adding risk information to an ad with benefit information increased risk knowledge and perceptions without decreasing benefit knowledge or perceptions.

Who receives cannabis use offers: A general population study of adolescents.

Science.gov (United States)

Burdzovic Andreas, Jasmina; Pape, Hilde

2015-11-01

Drug use is predicated on a combination of "willingness" and "opportunity". That is, independent of any desire to use drugs, a drug use opportunity is required; be it indirect (i.e., being in a drug-use setting) or direct (i.e., receiving a direct drug offer). However, whether some youth are more likely to encounter such direct drug use opportunities is not fully known. We examined whether certain characteristics placed adolescents at greater risk for being offered cannabis, after accounting for a number of demographic-, contextual-, interpersonal-, and personal-level risk factors. We utilized data from a Norwegian school survey (n=19,309) where the likelihood of receiving cannabis offer in the past year was estimated using logistic regression models. Substantive focus was on the individual and combined effects of personal (i.e., delinquency) and interpersonal (i.e., cannabis-using close friend) risk factors. Separate models were fit for middle- and high-school students. Delinquency was a significant risk factor for receiving cannabis offers, as was a cannabis-using best friend. In addition, peer cannabis use increased the risk of cannabis offers mostly for adolescents on the lower delinquency spectrum, but less so for highly delinquent adolescents. These interaction effects were primarily driven by the middle-school cohort. Cannabis offers were more likely to be extended to youth of certain high-risk profiles. Targeted prevention strategies can therefore be extended to a general profile of younger adolescents with externalizing problems and cannabis-using peers. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

MATHEMATICAL RISK ANALYSIS: VIA NICHOLAS RISK MODEL AND BAYESIAN ANALYSIS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anass BAYAGA

2010-07-01

Full Text Available The objective of this second part of a two-phased study was to explorethe predictive power of quantitative risk analysis (QRA method andprocess within Higher Education Institution (HEI. The method and process investigated the use impact analysis via Nicholas risk model and Bayesian analysis, with a sample of hundred (100 risk analysts in a historically black South African University in the greater Eastern Cape Province.The first findings supported and confirmed previous literature (KingIII report, 2009: Nicholas and Steyn, 2008: Stoney, 2007: COSA, 2004 that there was a direct relationship between risk factor, its likelihood and impact, certiris paribus. The second finding in relation to either controlling the likelihood or the impact of occurrence of risk (Nicholas risk model was that to have a brighter risk reward, it was important to control the likelihood ofoccurrence of risks as compared with its impact so to have a direct effect on entire University. On the Bayesian analysis, thus third finding, the impact of risk should be predicted along three aspects. These aspects included the human impact (decisions made, the property impact (students and infrastructural based and the business impact. Lastly, the study revealed that although in most business cases, where as business cycles considerably vary dependingon the industry and or the institution, this study revealed that, most impacts in HEI (University was within the period of one academic.The recommendation was that application of quantitative risk analysisshould be related to current legislative framework that affects HEI.

31 CFR 50.13 - Offer, purchase, and renewal.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... Section 50.13 Money and Finance: Treasury Office of the Secretary of the Treasury TERRORISM RISK INSURANCE PROGRAM Disclosures as Conditions for Federal Payment § 50.13 Offer, purchase, and renewal. An insurer is deemed to be in compliance with the requirement of providing disclosure “at the time of offer, purchase...

FORUM Obstetric risk avoidance: Will anyone be offering obstetrics ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

performing deliveries in private practice by the end of the decade?' If the answer to the ... Insurance companies, although offering an insurance product, also ... deliver in provincial facilities, shifting the workload and liability to the state.

New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Skandamis, Panagiotis N.; Andritsos, Nikolaos; Psomas, Antonios; Paramythiotis, Spyridon

2015-01-01

The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total ‘failure’ that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user

New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Skandamis, Panagiotis N., E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Andritsos, Nikolaos, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Psomas, Antonios, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Paramythiotis, Spyridon, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr [Laboratory of Food Quality Control and Hygiene, Department of Food Science and Technology, Agricultural University of Athens, Iera Odos 75, 118 55, Athens (Greece)

2015-01-22

The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total ‘failure’ that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user

New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

Science.gov (United States)

Skandamis, Panagiotis N.; Andritsos, Nikolaos; Psomas, Antonios; Paramythiotis, Spyridon

2015-01-01

The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total `failure' that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user-friendly softwares

Sustainable Offering Practices Through Stakeholders Engagement

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bijay Prasad Kushwaha

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Sustainable development is achieved by satisfying the current ends without shrinking the existing means which can serve as needs for the society in the future. It has become global motive and responsibility of present community to utilize resources in an optimum way with minimum environmental damage. The objective of this paper is to study theoretical framework and practical approaches on sustainable offering practices through customer engagement. The study has also examined the opportunities and challenges of sustainable offering practices in India. The study is based on a previous study and secondary data has been used for analysis. The outcome revealed the process for successful sustainable offering practices in context of Indian consumers. The analysis has helped to understand different practices of sustainable offering through engaging stakeholders.

Is risk analysis scientific?

Science.gov (United States)

Hansson, Sven Ove; Aven, Terje

2014-07-01

This article discusses to what extent risk analysis is scientific in view of a set of commonly used definitions and criteria. We consider scientific knowledge to be characterized by its subject matter, its success in developing the best available knowledge in its fields of study, and the epistemic norms and values that guide scientific investigations. We proceed to assess the field of risk analysis according to these criteria. For this purpose, we use a model for risk analysis in which science is used as a base for decision making on risks, which covers the five elements evidence, knowledge base, broad risk evaluation, managerial review and judgment, and the decision; and that relates these elements to the domains experts and decisionmakers, and to the domains fact-based or value-based. We conclude that risk analysis is a scientific field of study, when understood as consisting primarily of (i) knowledge about risk-related phenomena, processes, events, etc., and (ii) concepts, theories, frameworks, approaches, principles, methods and models to understand, assess, characterize, communicate, and manage risk, in general and for specific applications (the instrumental part). © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

A kidney offer acceptance decision tool to inform the decision to accept an offer or wait for a better kidney.

Science.gov (United States)

Wey, Andrew; Salkowski, Nicholas; Kremers, Walter K; Schaffhausen, Cory R; Kasiske, Bertram L; Israni, Ajay K; Snyder, Jon J

2018-04-01

We developed a kidney offer acceptance decision tool to predict the probability of graft survival and patient survival for first-time kidney-alone candidates after an offer is accepted or declined, and we characterized the effect of restricting the donor pool with a maximum acceptable kidney donor profile index (KDPI). For accepted offers, Cox proportional hazards models estimated these probabilities using transplanted kidneys. For declined offers, these probabilities were estimated by considering the experience of similar candidates who declined offers and the probability that declining would lead to these outcomes. We randomly selected 5000 declined offers and estimated these probabilities 3 years post-offer had the offers been accepted or declined. Predicted outcomes for declined offers were well calibrated (offers been accepted, the probabilities of graft survival and patient survival were typically higher. However, these advantages attenuated or disappeared with higher KDPI, candidate priority, and local donor supply. Donor pool restrictions were associated with worse 3-year outcomes, especially for candidates with high allocation priority. The kidney offer acceptance decision tool could inform offer acceptance by characterizing the potential risk-benefit trade-off associated with accepting or declining an offer. © 2017 The American Society of Transplantation and the American Society of Transplant Surgeons.

Environmental modeling and health risk analysis (ACTS/RISK)

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Aral, M. M

2010-01-01

... presents a review of the topics of exposure and health risk analysis. The Analytical Contaminant Transport Analysis System (ACTS) and Health RISK Analysis (RISK) software tools are an integral part of the book and provide computational platforms for all the models discussed herein. The most recent versions of these two softwa...

The benefits of integrating cost-benefit analysis and risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fisher, K.; Clarke-Whistler, K.

1995-01-01

It has increasingly been recognized that knowledge of risks in the absence of benefits and costs cannot dictate appropriate public policy choices. Recent evidence of this recognition includes the proposed EPA Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis Act of 1995, a number of legislative changes in Canada and the US, and the increasing demand for field studies combining measures of impacts, risks, costs and benefits. Failure to consider relative environmental and human health risks, benefits, and costs in making public policy decisions has resulted in allocating scarce resources away from areas offering the highest levels of risk reduction and improvements in health and safety. The authors discuss the implications of not taking costs and benefits into account in addressing environmental risks, drawing on examples from both Canada and the US. The authors also present the results of their recent field work demonstrating the advantages of considering costs and benefits in making public policy and site remediation decisions, including a study on the benefits and costs of prevention, remediation and monitoring techniques applied to groundwater contamination; the benefits and costs of banning the use of chlorine; and the benefits and costs of Canada's concept of disposing of high-level nuclear waste. The authors conclude that a properly conducted Cost-Benefit Analysis can provide critical input to a Risk Assessment and can ensure that risk management decisions are efficient, cost-effective and maximize improvement to environmental and human health

ProRisk : risk analysis instrument : developed for William properties

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Doorn, W.H.W.; Egeberg, Ingrid; Hendrickx, Kristoff; Kahramaner, Y.; Masseur, B.; Waijers, Koen; Weglicka, K.A.

2005-01-01

This report presents a Risk Analysis Instrument developed for William Properties. Based on the analysis, it appears that the practice of Risk Analysis exists within the organization, yet rather implicit. The Risk Analysis Instrument comes with a package of four components: an activity diagram, a

Observations on risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thompson, W.A. Jr.

1979-11-01

This paper briefly describes WASH 1400 and the Lewis report. It attempts to define basic concepts such as risk and risk analysis, common mode failure, and rare event. Several probabilistic models which go beyond the WASH 1400 methodology are introduced; the common characteristic of these models is that they recognize explicitly that risk analysis is time dependent whereas WASH 1400 takes a per demand failure rate approach which obscures the important fact that accidents are time related. Further, the presentation of a realistic risk analysis should recognize that there are various risks which compete with one another for the lives of the individuals at risk. A way of doing this is suggested

48 CFR 570.303-3 - Late offers, modifications of offers, and withdrawals of offers.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Late offers, modifications of offers, and withdrawals of offers. 570.303-3 Section 570.303-3 Federal Acquisition Regulations... PROPERTY Contracting Procedures for Leasehold Interests in Real Property 570.303-3 Late offers...

Issues in risk analysis of passive LWR designs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Youngblood, R.W.; Pratt, W.T.; Amico, P.J.; Gallagher, D.

1992-01-01

This paper discusses issues which bear on the question of how safety is to be demonstrated for ''simplified passive'' light water reactor (LWR) designs. First, a very simplified comparison is made between certain systems in today's plants. comparable systems in evolutionary designs, and comparable systems in the simplified passives. in order to introduce the issues. This discussion is not intended to describe the designs comprehensively, but is offered only to show why certain issues seem to be important in these particular designs. Next, an important class of accident sequences is described; finally, based on this discussion, some priorities in risk analysis are presented and discussed

Unsharpness-risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Preyssl, C.

1986-01-01

Safety analysis provides the only tool for evaluation and quantification of rare or hypothetical events leading to system failure. So far probability theory has been used for the fault- and event-tree methodology. The phenomenon of uncertainties constitutes an important aspect in risk analysis. Uncertainties can be classified as originating from 'randomness' or 'fuzziness'. Probability theory addresses randomness only. The use of 'fuzzy set theory' makes it possible to include both types of uncertainty in the mathematical model of risk analysis. Thus the 'fuzzy fault tree' is expressed in 'possibilistic' terms implying a range of simplifications and improvements. 'Human failure' and 'conditionality' can be treated correctly. Only minimum-maximum relations are used to combine the possibility distributions of events. Various event-classifications facilitate the interpretation of the results. The method is demonstrated by application to a TRIGA-research reactor. Uncertainty as an implicit part of 'fuzzy risk' can be quantified explicitly using an 'uncertainty measure'. Based on this the 'degree of relative compliance' with a quantizative safety goal can be defined for a particular risk. The introduction of 'weighting functionals' guarantees the consideration of the importances attached to different parts of the risk exceeding or complying with the standard. The comparison of two reference systems is demonstrated in a case study. It is concluded that any application of the 'fuzzy risk analysis' has to be free of any hypostatization when reducing subjective to objective information. (Author)

RAMS (Risk Analysis - Modular System) methodology

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Stenner, R.D.; Strenge, D.L.; Buck, J.W. [and others

1996-10-01

The Risk Analysis - Modular System (RAMS) was developed to serve as a broad scope risk analysis tool for the Risk Assessment of the Hanford Mission (RAHM) studies. The RAHM element provides risk analysis support for Hanford Strategic Analysis and Mission Planning activities. The RAHM also provides risk analysis support for the Hanford 10-Year Plan development activities. The RAMS tool draws from a collection of specifically designed databases and modular risk analysis methodologies and models. RAMS is a flexible modular system that can be focused on targeted risk analysis needs. It is specifically designed to address risks associated with overall strategy, technical alternative, and `what if` questions regarding the Hanford cleanup mission. RAMS is set up to address both near-term and long-term risk issues. Consistency is very important for any comparative risk analysis, and RAMS is designed to efficiently and consistently compare risks and produce risk reduction estimates. There is a wide range of output information that can be generated by RAMS. These outputs can be detailed by individual contaminants, waste forms, transport pathways, exposure scenarios, individuals, populations, etc. However, they can also be in rolled-up form to support high-level strategy decisions.

Risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baron, J.H.; Nunez McLeod, J.; Rivera, S.S.

1997-01-01

This book contains a selection of research works performed in the CEDIAC Institute (Cuyo National University) in the area of Risk Analysis, with specific orientations to the subjects of uncertainty and sensitivity studies, software reliability, severe accident modeling, etc. This volume presents important material for all those researches who want to have an insight in the risk analysis field, as a tool to solution several problems frequently found in the engineering and applied sciences field, as well as for the academic teachers who want to keep up to date, including the new developments and improvements continuously arising in this field [es

A background risk analysis. Vol. 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Taylor, J.R.

1979-01-01

This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles, and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques, described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justification or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appendix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 1 contains a short history of risk analysis, and chapters on risk, failures, errors and accidents, and general procedures for risk analysis. (BP)

International Conference on Risk Analysis

CERN Document Server

Oliveira, Teresa; Rigas, Alexandros; Gulati, Sneh

2015-01-01

This book covers the latest results in the field of risk analysis. Presented topics include probabilistic models in cancer research, models and methods in longevity, epidemiology of cancer risk, engineering reliability and economical risk problems. The contributions of this volume originate from the 5th International Conference on Risk Analysis (ICRA 5). The conference brought together researchers and practitioners working in the field of risk analysis in order to present new theoretical and computational methods with applications in biology, environmental sciences, public health, economics and finance.

Regulating food law : risk analysis and the precautionary principle as general principles of EU food law

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Szajkowska, A.

2012-01-01

In food law scientific evidence occupies a central position. This study offers a legal insight into risk analysis and the precautionary principle, positioned in the EU as general principles applicable to all food safety measures, both national and EU. It develops a new method of looking at these

Holistic stakeholder-oriented and case study-based risk analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Heisterkamp, Tobias

2013-04-01

Case studies of storm events in the Berlin conurbation demonstrate the chance of a holistic approach and its potential data sources. Data sets of population, but also data provided by insurance and transport companies, and operating data provided by fire brigades, are used. Various indicators for risk analysis are constructed to identify hot spots. These hot spots can be shortcomings or critical aspects in structure, communication, the warning chain, or even in the structure of potentially affected stakeholders or in the civil protection system itself. Due to increasing complexity of interactions and interdependencies in or between societies and nature, it is important to choose a holistic approach. For risk analyses like the storms in Berlin, it captures many important factors with their effects. For risk analyses, it is important to take potential users into concern: The analysis gets important due to its use later on. In addition to a theoretical background, a focus on the application should be set from the beginning on. To get usable results, it is helpful to complement the theoretical meta-level by a stakeholder-oriented level. An iterative investigation and combination of different layers for the risk analysis explores important influencing factors and allows a tailoring of results to different stakeholder groups. Layers are indicators, gained from data sets like losses from insurance data. Tailoring is important, because of different requirements e.g. by technical or medical assistance. Stakeholders' feedback in the iterative investigation also shows structural limitations for later applications, like special laws the fire brigades have to deal with. Additionally, using actors' perspectives offers the chance to convince practitioners of taking part in the analysis. Their participation is an essential component in applied science. They are important data suppliers, whose goodwill is needed to ensure good results. Based on their experience, they can also help

Through ARIPAR-GIS the quantified area risk analysis supports land-use planning activities.

Science.gov (United States)

Spadoni, G; Egidi, D; Contini, S

2000-01-07

The paper first summarises the main aspects of the ARIPAR methodology whose steps can be applied to quantify the impact on a territory of major accident risks due to processing, storing and transporting dangerous substances. Then the capabilities of the new decision support tool ARIPAR-GIS, implementing the mentioned procedure, are described, together with its main features and types of results. These are clearly shown through a short description of the updated ARIPAR study (reference year 1994), in which the impact of changes due to industrial and transportation dynamics on the Ravenna territory in Italy were evaluated. The brief explanation of how results have been used by local administrations offers the opportunity to discuss about advantages of the quantitative area risk analysis tool in supporting activities of risk management, risk control and land-use planning.

Social contacts and Ecstasy offers: findings of a population-based study.

Science.gov (United States)

Smirnov, Andrew; Najman, Jake M; Legosz, Margot; Wells, Helene; Kemp, Robert

2013-01-01

Ecstasy (MDMA) use is relatively common among young adults in many developed countries. However, little is known about how young non-users are first introduced to Ecstasy, including the relative contribution of peer networks and individual risk factors. We assess the role of social contact with Ecstasy-using peers in regard to young adults' exposure to offers of Ecstasy, using data from the Natural History Study, a population-based study conducted in Australia. Population screening of young adults (19- to 23-year-olds) identified a sample of young Ecstasy users (N = 315) and a comparison group of Ecstasy-naïve participants (N = 199). Two outcomes are considered: being exposed to any Ecstasy offers and being exposed to > 3 offers. Extensive social contact with Ecstasy users was defined as knowing > 10 Ecstasy users. Of the Ecstasy-naïve young adults, > 40% had ever received Ecstasy offers. Extensive social contact with Ecstasy users independently predicted exposure to multiple (> 3) Ecstasy offers for Ecstasy-naïve young adults. These findings indicate that Ecstasy offers are widespread among users and non-users of Ecstasy. For non-users, exposure to Ecstasy offers occurs through social contact with drug-using peers independently of individual risk factors. The pervasiveness of Ecstasy offers suggests that universal education concerning Ecstasy use is required.

Risk analysis: opening the process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hubert, Ph.; Mays, C.

1998-01-01

This conference on risk analysis took place in Paris, 11-14 october 1999. Over 200 paper where presented in the seven following sessions: perception; environment and health; persuasive risks; objects and products; personal and collective involvement; assessment and valuation; management. A rational approach to risk analysis has been developed in the three last decades. Techniques for risk assessment have been thoroughly enhanced, risk management approaches have been developed, decision making processes have been clarified, the social dimensions of risk perception and management have been investigated. Nevertheless this construction is being challenged by recent events which reveal how deficits in stakeholder involvement, openness and democratic procedures can undermine risk management actions. Indeed, the global process most components of risk analysis may be radically called into question. Food safety has lately been a prominent issue, but now debates appear, or old debates are revisited in the domains of public health, consumer products safety, waste management, environmental risks, nuclear installations, automobile safety and pollution. To meet the growing pressures for efficiency, openness, accountability, and multi-partner communication in risk analysis, institutional changes are underway in many European countries. However, the need for stakeholders to develop better insight into the process may lead to an evolution of all the components of risks analysis, even in its most (technical' steps. For stakeholders of different professional background, political projects, and responsibilities, risk identification procedures must be rendered understandable, quantitative risk assessment must be intelligible and accommodated in action proposals, ranging from countermeasures to educational programs to insurance mechanisms. Management formats must be open to local and political input and other types of operational feedback. (authors)

Offering lung cancer screening to high-risk medicare beneficiaries saves lives and is cost-effective: an actuarial analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Pyenson, Bruce S; Henschke, Claudia I; Yankelevitz, David F; Yip, Rowena; Dec, Ellynne

2014-08-01

By a wide margin, lung cancer is the most significant cause of cancer death in the United States and worldwide. The incidence of lung cancer increases with age, and Medicare beneficiaries are often at increased risk. Because of its demonstrated effectiveness in reducing mortality, lung cancer screening with low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) imaging will be covered without cost-sharing starting January 1, 2015, by nongrandfathered commercial plans. Medicare is considering coverage for lung cancer screening. To estimate the cost and cost-effectiveness (ie, cost per life-year saved) of LDCT lung cancer screening of the Medicare population at high risk for lung cancer. Medicare costs, enrollment, and demographics were used for this study; they were derived from the 2012 Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) beneficiary files and were forecast to 2014 based on CMS and US Census Bureau projections. Standard life and health actuarial techniques were used to calculate the cost and cost-effectiveness of lung cancer screening. The cost, incidence rates, mortality rates, and other parameters chosen by the authors were taken from actual Medicare data, and the modeled screenings are consistent with Medicare processes and procedures. Approximately 4.9 million high-risk Medicare beneficiaries would meet criteria for lung cancer screening in 2014. Without screening, Medicare patients newly diagnosed with lung cancer have an average life expectancy of approximately 3 years. Based on our analysis, the average annual cost of LDCT lung cancer screening in Medicare is estimated to be $241 per person screened. LDCT screening for lung cancer in Medicare beneficiaries aged 55 to 80 years with a history of ≥30 pack-years of smoking and who had smoked within 15 years is low cost, at approximately $1 per member per month. This assumes that 50% of these patients were screened. Such screening is also highly cost-effective, at <$19,000 per life-year saved. If all eligible Medicare

Adversarial risk analysis

CERN Document Server

Banks, David L; Rios Insua, David

2015-01-01

Flexible Models to Analyze Opponent Behavior A relatively new area of research, adversarial risk analysis (ARA) informs decision making when there are intelligent opponents and uncertain outcomes. Adversarial Risk Analysis develops methods for allocating defensive or offensive resources against intelligent adversaries. Many examples throughout illustrate the application of the ARA approach to a variety of games and strategic situations. The book shows decision makers how to build Bayesian models for the strategic calculation of their opponents, enabling decision makers to maximize their expected utility or minimize their expected loss. This new approach to risk analysis asserts that analysts should use Bayesian thinking to describe their beliefs about an opponent's goals, resources, optimism, and type of strategic calculation, such as minimax and level-k thinking. Within that framework, analysts then solve the problem from the perspective of the opponent while placing subjective probability distributions on a...

Risk factor screening to identify women requiring oral glucose tolerance testing to diagnose gestational diabetes: A systematic review and meta-analysis and analysis of two pregnancy cohorts.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Diane Farrar

Full Text Available Easily identifiable risk factors including: obesity and ethnicity at high risk of diabetes are commonly used to indicate which women should be offered the oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT to diagnose gestational diabetes (GDM. Evidence regarding these risk factors is limited however. We conducted a systematic review (SR and meta-analysis and individual participant data (IPD analysis to evaluate the performance of risk factors in identifying women with GDM.We searched MEDLINE, Medline in Process, Embase, Maternity and Infant Care and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL up to August 2016 and conducted additional reference checking. We included observational, cohort, case-control and cross-sectional studies reporting the performance characteristics of risk factors used to identify women at high risk of GDM. We had access to IPD from the Born in Bradford and Atlantic Diabetes in Pregnancy cohorts, all pregnant women in the two cohorts with data on risk factors and OGTT results were included.Twenty nine published studies with 211,698 women for the SR and a further 14,103 women from two birth cohorts (Born in Bradford and the Atlantic Diabetes in Pregnancy study for the IPD analysis were included. Six studies assessed the screening performance of guidelines; six examined combinations of risk factors; eight evaluated the number of risk factors and nine examined prediction models or scores. Meta-analysis using data from published studies suggests that irrespective of the method used, risk factors do not identify women with GDM well. Using IPD and combining risk factors to produce the highest sensitivities, results in low specificities (and so higher false positives. Strategies that use the risk factors of age (>25 or >30 and BMI (>25 or 30 perform as well as other strategies with additional risk factors included.Risk factor screening methods are poor predictors of which pregnant women will be diagnosed with GDM. A simple

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Staff Association

2012-01-01

L'Occitane en Provence proposes the following offer: 10 % discount on all products in all L'Occitane shops in Metropolitan France upon presentation of your Staff Association membership card and a valid ID. This offer is valid only for one person, is non-transferable and cannot be combined with other promotions.

A Review and Comparative Analysis of Security Risks and Safety Measures of Mobile Health Apps

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Karen Scott

2015-11-01

Full Text Available In line with a patient-centred model of healthcare, Mobile Health applications (mhealth apps provide convenient and equitable access to health and well-being resources and programs that can enable consumers to monitor their health related problems, understand specific medical conditions and attain personal fitness goals. This increase in access and control comes with an increase in risk and responsibility to identify and manage the associated risks, such as the privacy and security of consumers’ personal and health information. Based on a review of the literature, this paper identifies a set of risk and safety features for evaluating mHealth apps and uses those features to conduct a comparative analysis of the 20 most popular mHealth apps. The comparative analysis reveals that current mHealth apps do pose a risk to consumers. To address the safety and privacy concerns, recommendations to consumers and app developers are offered together with consideration of mHealth app future trends.

Utilizing risk index for overdose or serious opioid-induced respiratory depression (RIOSORD) scores to prioritize offer of rescue naloxone in an outpatient veteran population: A telephone-based project.

Science.gov (United States)

Yates, Derek; Frey, Theresa; Montgomery, Jean Charles

2018-03-26

Since 2014, the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) has been working to address the ongoing opioid epidemic through opioid-education initiatives, the development of risk calculators, and other risk stratification tools. One primary focus of VA efforts has been the distribution of rescue naloxone kits to veterans at greatest risk of opioid-related adverse events. The purpose of this project was to identify primary care veterans at highest risk for serious opioid-related adverse events using the Risk Index for Overdose and Serious Opioid-Induced Respiratory Depression (RIOSORD) and offer rescue naloxone kits by telephone-based outreach. RIOSORD is a risk-stratification tool developed and validated within the veteran population. Veterans identified at highest risk of overdose or opioid-related adverse effects were contacted by telephone or letter to offer to provide a rescue naloxone kit between November 1 st , 2016 and February 1 st , 2017. The primary outcome of the project was the percentage of patients contacted that agreed to a naloxone prescription. Secondary outcomes included comparative efficacy of phone versus letter contact and reasons for refusal of naloxone if the offer was declined. Of 41 veterans targeted by this project, most were successfully reached by telephone within three attempts (92.7%, n = 38). Approximately two-thirds of those reached by telephone agreed to a prescription for rescue naloxone (n = 26, 63.4%). The veterans that requested rescue naloxone selected the nasal formulation (n = 17) over the intramuscular auto-injector (n = 9). This project demonstrated that telephone-based outreach can be one method of distributing rescue naloxone to a high-risk patient population without requiring an in-person visit to a provider.

Strategic analysis of companies offering technology services to farmers for mobile applications media

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rodrigo da Silva Riquena

2016-03-01

Full Text Available The use of smart-phones and tablets is increasing the farming community before these fact companies that offer products and services to this sector are mobilizing to be active in this new reality. However, companies that operate in the rural market, not only have the aim of helping farmers in providing services through mobile technology applications, it was necessary to identify the strategic performance of these companies as a market opportunity in selling their products in the agricultural sector. Therefore, this article aimed to identify the strategic planning of technology companies to provide services through applications to farmers. The methodological approach used is a qualitative approach with the exploratory and descriptive aim of the use of content analysis of the websites of those companies studied. This study concluded that companies by offering technology services to farmers, use these services strategically to your advantage without the knowledge of the real needs of farmers.

Risk analysis of investments in-farm milk cooling tanks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Danielle D. Sant´Anna

2003-06-01

Full Text Available A risk analysis for the installation of milk cooling tanks (250, 500 and 1,000 L on Brazilian rural properties was conducted in this study. The results showed that all investments had a return higher than the annual 12% minimum rate of attractiveness. There was a direct relationship between tank size and investment profitability and an inverse relation between size and risk. The probability of achieving returns lower than the opportunity cost was highest for the smallest tank (42%. In order to make the investment in small cooling tanks more attractive, the dairy industry incentives offered to farmers for supplying cooled milk could be increased. However, this approach might make investments in bulk milk collection by dairy companies infeasible. Thus, a recommendable strategy for a successful modernization of the Brazilian dairy sector’s inbound logistics would be to promote an increase in the volume of the milk produced per farm.

ANALYSIS OF ROMANIAN SMALL AND MEDIUM ENTERPRISES BANKRUPTCY RISK

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kulcsar Edina

2014-07-01

Full Text Available Considering the fundamental role of small and medium enterprises in Romanian economy, this paper aims to quantify the level of their bankruptcy risk for 2009 and 2012 period, after debuting of financial crisis. The main reason of selecting this type of companies is that they represent the backbone of national economy. They have an indispensable role, because they offer jobs for great part of population and their contribution for GDP stimulation is considerable. In this paper it was applied two default risk models, namely the well known Altman’s Z-score model, based on five financial ratios and a bankruptcy predictor model developed by Teti et. al (2012 used firstly exclusively for Italian small and medium-sized enterprise for 2006-2009 period. The model proposed by Teti et. is based on the investigation of financially distressed and financially non-distressed Italian small and medium-sized enterprises during the financial crisis by using a discriminant analysis model. They conclude that there are four financial ratios, which characterized well the small and medium-sized enterprises bankruptcy risk. These variables are financial ratios, like: Debt/Total Assets, Return on Sales (ROS, EBIT/Interest Expenses and Working capital/EBIDTA. They consider that small and medium-sized enterprises require a particular approach in terms of bankruptcy risk analysis. In present study I try to compare the efficiency of traditional bankruptcy risk model with a small and medium-sized specific model. The necessary database for present analysis is ensured by simplified financial reports of 120 small and medium-sized enterprises registered in Bihor County. The selected enterprises are operating in manufacturing industry (21,67% and trading (78,33%. Present investigation has an important value in actual economic background, where the healthiness and sustainability of small and medium-sized enterprises is a great issue. The results of study shows contradictory

A background to risk analysis. Vol. 3

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Taylor, J.R.

1979-01-01

This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles, and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justifi- cation or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appenix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 3 contains chapters on quantification of risk, failure and accident probability, risk analysis and design, and examles of risk analysis for process plant. (BP)

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Special offers for our members       Go Sport in Val Thoiry is offering 15% discount on all purchases made in the shop upon presentation of the Staff Association membership card (excluding promotions, sale items and bargain corner, and excluding purchases using Go Sport  and Kadéos gift cards. Only one discount can be applied to each purchase).  

Genome-wide association analysis identifies novel blood pressure loci and offers biological insights into cardiovascular risk

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Warren, Helen R.; Evangelou, Evangelos; Cabrera, Claudia P.; Gao, He; Ren, Meixia; Mifsud, Borbala; Ntalla, Ioanna; Surendran, Praveen; Liu, Chunyu; Cook, James P.; Kraja, Aldi T.; Drenos, Fotios; Loh, Marie; Verweij, Niek; Marten, Jonathan; Karaman, Ibrahim; Lepe, Marcelo P. Segura; O'Reilly, Paul F.; Knight, Joanne; Snieder, Harold; Kato, Norihiro; He, Jiang; Tai, E. Shyong; Said, M. Abdullah; Porteous, David; Alver, Maris; Poulter, Neil; Farrall, Martin; Gansevoort, Ron T.; Padmanabhan, Sandosh; Magi, Reedik; Stanton, Alice; Connell, John; Bakker, Stephan J. L.; Metspalu, Andres; Shields, Denis C.; Thom, Simon; Brown, Morris; Sever, Peter; Esko, Tonu; Hayward, Caroline; van der Harst, Pim; Saleheen, Danish; Chowdhury, Rajiv; Chambers, John C.; Chasman, Daniel I.; Chakravarti, Aravinda; Newton-Cheh, Christopher; Lindgren, Cecilia M.; Levy, Daniel; Kooner, Jaspal S.; Keavney, Bernard; Tomaszewski, Maciej; Samani, Nilesh J.; Howson, Joanna M. M.; Tobin, Martin D.; Munroe, Patricia B.; Ehret, Georg B.; Wain, Louise V.; Barnes, Michael R.; Tzoulaki, Joanna; Caulfield, Mark J.; Elliott, Paul; Vaez, Ahmad; Jansen, Rick; Joehanes, Roby; van der Most, Peter J.; Erzurumluoglu, A. Mesut; O'Reilly, Paul; Rose, Lynda M.; Verwoert, Germaine C.; Hottenga, Jouke-Jan; Strawbridge, Rona J.; Arking, Dan E.; Hwang, Shih-Jen; Guo, Xiuqing; Kutalik, Zoltan; Trompet, Stella; Shrine, Nick; Teumer, Alexander; Ried, Janina S.; Bis, Joshua C.; Smith, Albert V.; Amin, Najaf; Nolte, Ilja M.; Lyytikainen, Leo-Pekka; Mahajan, Anubha; Wareham, Nicholas J.; Hofer, Edith; Joshi, Peter K.; Kristiansson, Kati; Traglia, Michela; Havulinna, Aki S.; Goel, Anuj; Nalls, Mike A.; Sober, Siim; Vuckovic, Dragana; Luan, Jian'an; del Greco, Fabiola M.; Ayers, Kristin L.; Marrugat, Jaume; Ruggiero, Daniela; Lopez, Lorna M.; Niiranen, Teemu; Enroth, Stefan; Jackson, Anne U.; Nelson, Christopher P.; Huffman, Jennifer E.; Zhang, Weihua; Gandin, Ilaria; Harris, Sarah E.; Zemonik, Tatijana; Lu, Yingchang; Shah, Nabi; de Borst, Martin H.; Mangino, Massimo; Prins, Bram P.; Campbell, Archie; Li-Gao, Ruifang; Chauhan, Ganesh; Oldmeadow, Christopher; Abecasis, Goncalo; Abedi, Maryam; Barbieri, Caterina M.; Batini, Chiara; Blake, Tineka; Boehnke, Michael; Bottinger, Erwin P.; Braund, Peter S.; Brumat, Marco; Campbell, Harry; Cocca, Massimiliano; Collins, Francis; Cordell, Heather J.; Damman, Jeffrey J.; Davies, Gail; de Geus, Eco J.; de Mutsert, Renee; Deelen, Joris; Demirkale, Yusuf; Doney, Alex S. F.; Dorr, Marcus; Ferreira, Teresa; Franberg, Mattias; Giedraitis, Vilmantas; Gieger, Christian; Giulianini, Franco; Gow, Alan J.; Hamsten, Anders; Harris, Tamara B.; Hofman, Albert; Holliday, Elizabeth G.; Jarvelin, Marjo-Riitta; Johansson, Asa; Johnson, Andrew D.; Jousilahti, Pekka; Jula, Antti; Kahonen, Mika; Kathiresan, Sekar; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Kolcic, Ivana; Koskinen, Seppo; Langenberg, Claudia; Larson, Marty; Launer, Lenore J.; Lehne, Benjamin; Liewald, David C. M.; Lin, Li; Lind, Lars; Mach, Francois; Mamasoula, Chrysovalanto; Menni, Cristina; Milaneschi, Yuri; Morgan, Anna; Morris, Andrew D.; Morrison, Alanna C.; Munson, Peter J.; Nandakumar, Priyanka; Nguyen, Quang Tri; Nutile, Teresa; Oldehinkel, Albertine J.; Oostra, Ben A.; Org, Elin; Palotie, Aarno; Pare, Guillaume; Pattie, Alison; Penninx, Brenda W. J. H.; Pramstaller, Peter P.; Raitakari, Olli T.; Rice, Kenneth; Ridker, Paul M.; Riese, Harriette; Ripatti, Samuli; Robino, Antonietta; Rotter, Jerome I.; Rudan, Igor; Saba, Yasaman; Saint Pierre, Aude; Sala, Cinzia F.; Sarin, Antti-Pekka; Schmidt, Reinhold; Scott, Rodney; Seelen, Marc A.; Siscovick, David; Sorice, Rossella; Stott, David J.; Sundstrom, Johan; Swertz, Morris; Taylor, Kent D.; Tzoulaki, Ioanna; Tzourio, Christophe; Uitterlinden, Andre G.; Volker, Uwe; Vollenweider, Peter; Wild, Sarah; Willemsen, Gonneke; Wright, Alan F.; Yao, Jie; Theriault, Sebastien; Conen, David; John, Attia; Debette, Stephanie; Mook-Kanamori, Dennis O.; Zeggini, Eleftheria; Spector, Tim D.; Palmer, Colin N. A.; Vergnaud, Anne-Claire; Loos, Ruth J. F.; Polasek, Ozren; Starr, John M.; Girotto, Giorgia; Lindgren, Cecila M.; Vitart, Veronique; Tuomilehto, Jaakko; Gyllensten, Ulf; Knekt, Paul; Deary, Ian J.; Ciullo, Marina; Elosua, Roberto; Keavney, Bernard D.; Hicks, Andrew A.; Scott, Robert A.; Gasparini, Paolo; Laan, Maris; Liu, Yongmei; Watkins, Hugh; Hartman, Catharina A.; Salomaa, Veikko; Toniolo, Daniela; Perola, Markus; Wilson, James F.; Schmidt, Helena; Zhao, Jing Hua; Lehtimaki, Terho; van Duijn, Cornelia M.; Gudnason, Vilmundur; Psaty, Bruce M.; Peters, Annette; Rettig, Rainer; James, Alan; Jukema, J. Wouter; Strachan, David P.; Palmas, Walter; Ingelsson, Erik; Boomsma, Dorret I.; Franco, Oscar H.; Bochud, Murielle; Morris, Andrew P.

2017-01-01

Elevated blood pressure is the leading heritable risk factor for cardiovascular disease worldwide. We report genetic association of blood pressure (systolic, diastolic, pulse pressure) among UK Biobank participants of European ancestry with independent replication in other cohorts, and robust

Association between MTHFR polymorphisms and acute myeloid leukemia risk: a meta-analysis.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yu-Tao Qin

Full Text Available Previous observational studies investigating the association between methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR polymorphisms and acute myeloid leukemia risk (AML have yielded inconsistent results. The aim of this study is to derive a more precise estimation of the association between MTHFR (C677T and A1298C polymorphisms and acute myeloid leukemia risk. PubMed and Embase databases were systematically searched to identify relevant studies from their inception to August 2013. Odds ratios (ORs with 95% confidence intervals (CIs were the metric of choice. Thirteen studies were selected for C677T polymorphism (1838 cases and 5318 controls and 9 studies (1335 patients and 4295 controls for A1298C polymorphism. Overall, pooled results showed that C677T polymorphism was not significant associated with AML risk(OR, 0.98-1.04; 95% CI, 0.86-0.92 to 1.09-1.25. Similar results were observed for the A1298C polymorphism and in subgroup analysis. All comparisons revealed no substantial heterogeneity nor did we detect evidence of publication bias. In summary, this meta-analysis provides evidence that MTHFR polymorphisms were not associated with AML risk. Further investigations are needed to offer better insight into the role of these polymorphisms in AML carcinogenesis.

Who are the adolescents saying "No" to cannabis offers.

Science.gov (United States)

Burdzovic Andreas, Jasmina; Pape, Hilde; Bretteville-Jensen, Anne Line

2016-06-01

Adolescents who refuse direct cannabis offers and remain non-users represent a potentially very informative, yet surprisingly understudied group. We examined a range of risk and protective factors putatively associated with this poorly understood "cannabis-resilient" profile. Paper-and-pencil questionnaires assessing substance use, peer and family relations, and behavioral and personality characteristics were completed by 19,303 middle- and high-school students from 82 schools in Norway (response rate 84%) The lifetime prevalence of cannabis use was 7.6%. Another 10.4% reported no use of the drug despite having received recent cannabis offers. Results from the multinomial logistic regression revealed a set of characteristics differentiating adolescents who resisted such offers from those who: (a) neither received the offers nor used, and, more importantly, (b) used the drug. Specifically, parent-child relationship quality, negative drug-related beliefs, absence of close relationships with cannabis-users, low delinquency, no regular tobacco use, and infrequent alcohol intoxication were all associated with increased odds of being in the cannabis-resilient vs. cannabis-user group. This pattern of results was comparable across middle- and high-school cohorts, but the parent-child relationship quality and delinquency were significantly associated with cannabis-resilient vs. cannabis-use outcome only among younger and older adolescents, respectively. Among other low-risk characteristics, better relationships with parents and beliefs that drug use is problematic were associated with adolescents' refusals to accept cannabis offers. These results may have implications for novel preventive strategies targeting cannabis-exposed adolescents. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

Environmental risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lima-e-Silva, Pedro Paulo de

1996-01-01

The conventional Risk Analysis (RA) relates usually a certain undesired event frequency with its consequences. Such technique is used nowadays in Brazil to analyze accidents and their consequences strictly under the human approach, valuing loss of human equipment, human structures and human lives, without considering the damage caused to natural resources that keep life possible on Earth. This paradigm was developed primarily because of the Homo sapiens' lack of perception upon the natural web needed to sustain his own life. In reality, the Brazilian professionals responsible today for licensing, auditing and inspecting environmental aspects of human activities face huge difficulties in making technical specifications and procedures leading to acceptable levels of impact, furthermore considering the intrinsic difficulties to define those levels. Therefore, in Brazil the RA technique is a weak tool for licensing for many reasons, and of them are its short scope (only accident considerations) and wrong a paradigm (only human direct damages). A paper from the author about the former was already proposed to the 7th International Conference on Environmetrics, past July'96, USP-SP. This one discusses the extension of the risk analysis concept to take into account environmental consequences, transforming the conventional analysis into a broader methodology named here as Environmental Risk Analysis. (author)

Analysis of the risk management decisionmaking processes and the decision support systems in the wildland fire agencies

Science.gov (United States)

Patrick Withen

2007-01-01

This paper offers an analysis of the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats in the risk management process, decision support systems (DSSs), and other types of decisionmaking, including recognition primed decisionmaking, bricolage with the goal of improving DSSs and decisionmaking. DSSs may be thought of as any technology or knowledge that is used as an aid...

Risk-based systems analysis for emerging technologies: Applications of a technology risk assessment model to public decision making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Quadrel, M.J.; Fowler, K.M.; Cameron, R.; Treat, R.J.; McCormack, W.D.; Cruse, J.

1995-01-01

The risk-based systems analysis model was designed to establish funding priorities among competing technologies for tank waste remediation. The model addresses a gap in the Department of Energy's (DOE's) ''toolkit'' for establishing funding priorities among emerging technologies by providing disciplined risk and cost assessments of candidate technologies within the context of a complete remediation system. The model is comprised of a risk and cost assessment and a decision interface. The former assesses the potential reductions in risk and cost offered by new technology relative to the baseline risk and cost of an entire system. The latter places this critical information in context of other values articulated by decision makers and stakeholders in the DOE system. The risk assessment portion of the model is demonstrated for two candidate technologies for tank waste retrieval (arm-based mechanical retrieval -- the ''long reach arm'') and subsurface barriers (close-coupled chemical barriers). Relative changes from the base case in cost and risk are presented for these two technologies to illustrate how the model works. The model and associated software build on previous work performed for DOE's Office of Technology Development and the former Underground Storage Tank Integrated Demonstration, and complement a decision making tool presented at Waste Management 1994 for integrating technical judgements and non-technical (stakeholder) values when making technology funding decisions

Oil-spill risk analysis: Gulf of Mexico (Proposed Lease Sales 131/135/137) Outer Continental Shelf. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hannon, L.J.; LaBelle, R.P.; Lear, E.M.

1991-09-01

The Federal Government has proposed to offer Outer Continental Shelf lands in the Gulf of Mexico for oil and gas leasing. Because oil spills may occur from activities associated with offshore oil production, the Minerals Management Service conducts a formal risk assessment. In evaluating the significance of accidental oil spills, it is important to remember that the occurrence of such spills is fundamentally probabilistic. The effects of oil spills that could occur during oil and gas production must be considered. The report summarizes results of an oil spill risk analysis conducted for the proposed Gulf of Mexico Outer Continental Shelf Lease Sales 131/135/137. The objective of this analysis was to estimate relative risks associated with oil and gas production for the proposed lease sales

Component of the risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martinez, I.; Campon, G.

2013-01-01

The power point presentation reviews issues like analysis of risk (Codex), management risk, preliminary activities manager, relationship between government and industries, microbiological danger and communication of risk

Credit Risk Evaluation : Modeling - Analysis - Management

OpenAIRE

Wehrspohn, Uwe

2002-01-01

An analysis and further development of the building blocks of modern credit risk management: -Definitions of default -Estimation of default probabilities -Exposures -Recovery Rates -Pricing -Concepts of portfolio dependence -Time horizons for risk calculations -Quantification of portfolio risk -Estimation of risk measures -Portfolio analysis and portfolio improvement -Evaluation and comparison of credit risk models -Analytic portfolio loss distributions The thesis contributes to the evaluatio...

Systematic analysis of natural hazards along infrastructure networks using a GIS-tool for risk assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Baruffini, Mirko

2010-05-01

Due to the topographical conditions in Switzerland, the highways and the railway lines are frequently exposed to natural hazards as rockfalls, debris flows, landslides, avalanches and others. With the rising incidence of those natural hazards, protection measures become an important political issue. However, they are costly, and maximal protection is most probably not economically feasible. Furthermore risks are distributed in space and time. Consequently, important decision problems to the public sector decision makers are derived. This asks for a high level of surveillance and preservation along the transalpine lines. Efficient protection alternatives can be obtained consequently considering the concept of integral risk management. Risk analysis, as the central part of risk management, has become gradually a generally accepted approach for the assessment of current and future scenarios (Loat & Zimmermann 2004). The procedure aims at risk reduction which can be reached by conventional mitigation on one hand and the implementation of land-use planning on the other hand: a combination of active and passive mitigation measures is applied to prevent damage to buildings, people and infrastructures. With a Geographical Information System adapted to run with a tool developed to manage Risk analysis it is possible to survey the data in time and space, obtaining an important system for managing natural risks. As a framework, we adopt the Swiss system for risk analysis of gravitational natural hazards (BUWAL 1999). It offers a complete framework for the analysis and assessment of risks due to natural hazards, ranging from hazard assessment for gravitational natural hazards, such as landslides, collapses, rockfalls, floodings, debris flows and avalanches, to vulnerability assessment and risk analysis, and the integration into land use planning at the cantonal and municipality level. The scheme is limited to the direct consequences of natural hazards. Thus, we develop a

Risk Analysis in Road Tunnels – Most Important Risk Indicators

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Berchtold, Florian; Knaust, Christian; Thöns, Sebastian

2016-01-01

Methodologies on fire risk analysis in road tunnels consider numerous factors affecting risks (risk indicators) and express the results by risk measures. But only few comprehensive studies on effects of risk indicators on risk measures are available. For this reason, this study quantifies...... the effects and highlights the most important risk indicators with the aim to support further developments in risk analysis. Therefore, a system model of a road tunnel was developed to determine the risk measures. The system model can be divided into three parts: the fire part connected to the fire model Fire...... Dynamics Simulator (FDS); the evacuation part connected to the evacuation model FDS+Evac; and the frequency part connected to a model to calculate the frequency of fires. This study shows that the parts of the system model (and their most important risk indicators) affect the risk measures in the following...

Risk analysis in radiosurgery treatments using risk matrices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Delgado, J. M.; Sanchez Cayela, C.; Ramirez, M. L.; Perez, A.

2011-01-01

The aim of this study is the risk analysis process stereotactic single-dose radiotherapy and evaluation of those initiating events that lead to increased risk and a possible solution in the design of barriers.

Decision support for organ offers in liver transplantation.

Science.gov (United States)

Volk, Michael L; Goodrich, Nathan; Lai, Jennifer C; Sonnenday, Christopher; Shedden, Kerby

2015-06-01

Organ offers in liver transplantation are high-risk medical decisions with a low certainty of whether a better liver offer will come along before death. We hypothesized that decision support could improve the decision to accept or decline. With data from the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients, survival models were constructed for 42,857 waiting-list patients and 28,653 posttransplant patients from 2002 to 2008. Daily covariate-adjusted survival probabilities from these 2 models were combined into a 5-year area under the curve to create an individualized prediction of whether an organ offer should be accepted for a given patient. Among 650,832 organ offers from 2008 to 2013, patient survival was compared by whether the clinical decision was concordant or discordant with model predictions. The acceptance benefit (AB)--the predicted gain or loss of life by accepting a given organ versus waiting for the next organ--ranged from 3 to -22 years (harm) and varied geographically; for example, the average benefit of accepting a donation after cardiac death organ ranged from 0.47 to -0.71 years by donation service area. Among organ offers, even when AB was >1 year, the offer was only accepted 10% of the time. Patient survival from the time of the organ offer was better if the model recommendations and the clinical decision were concordant: for offers with AB > 0, the 3-year survival was 80% if the offer was accepted and 66% if it was declined (P decision support may improve patient survival in liver transplantation. © 2015 American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.

Risk analysis of Odelouca cofferdam

OpenAIRE

Pimenta, L.; Caldeira, L.; Maranha das Neves, E.

2009-01-01

In this paper we present the risk analysis of Odelouca Cofferdam, using an event tree analysis. The initializing events, failure modes and analysed limit states are discussed based on an influence diagram. The constructed event trees and their interpretation are presented. The obtained risk values are represented in an FN plot superimposed to the acceptability and tolerability risk limits proposed for Portuguese dams. Initially, particular emphasis is placed on the main characteristic...

Impact of the future water value on wind-reversible hydro offering strategies in electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sánchez de la Nieta, A.A.; Contreras, J.; Catalão, J.P.S.

2015-01-01

Highlights: • A stochastic mixed integer linear model is proposed to maximize the profit and the future water value. • Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) is used for risk-hedging. • The offer strategies analyzed are single and separate, with and without a physical connection. • The effect of considering the future water value of the reservoirs is studied for several time horizons. - Abstract: A coordinated offering strategy between a wind farm and a reversible hydro plant can reduce wind power imbalances, improving the system efficiency whilst decreasing the total imbalances. A stochastic mixed integer linear model is proposed to maximize the profit and the future water value FWV of the system using Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) for risk-hedging. The offer strategies analyzed are: (i) single wind-reversible hydro offer with a physical connection between wind and hydro units to store spare wind energy, and (ii) separate wind and reversible hydro offers without a physical connection between them. The effect of considering the FWV of the reservoirs is studied for several time horizons: one week (168 h) and one month (720 h) using an illustrative case study. Conclusions are duly drawn from the case study to show the impact of FWV in the results.

Generalized indices for radiation risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bykov, A.A.; Demin, V.F.

1989-01-01

A new approach to ensuring nuclear safety has begun forming since the early eighties. The approach based on the probabilistic safety analysis, the principles of acceptable risk, the optimization of safety measures, etc. has forced a complex of adequate quantitative methods of assessment, safety analysis and risk management to be developed. The method of radiation risk assessment and analysis hold a prominent place in the complex. National and international research and regulatory organizations ICRP, IAEA, WHO, UNSCEAR, OECD/NEA have given much attention to the development of the conceptual and methodological basis of those methods. Some resolutions of the National Commission of Radiological Protection (NCRP) and the Problem Commission on Radiation Hygiene of the USSR Ministry of Health should be also noted. Both CBA (cost benefit analysis) and other methods of radiation risk analysis and safety management use a system of natural and socio-economic indices characterizing the radiation risk or damage. There exist a number of problems associated with the introduction, justification and use of these indices. For example, the price, a, of radiation damage, or collective dose unit, is a noteworthy index. The difficulties in its qualitative and quantitative determination are still an obstacle for a wide application of CBA to the radiation risk analysis and management. During recent 10-15 years these problems have been a subject of consideration for many authors. The present paper also considers the issues of the qualitative and quantitative justification of the indices of radiation risk analysis

BUSINESS NEEDS AND GRADUATE BUSINESS SCHOOL OFFERINGS IN MARKETING.

Science.gov (United States)

Thams, Meg; Glueck, Deborah

2007-04-01

The purpose of this study was to determine if a gap exists in the skill and knowledge businesses require of marketing employees and what the Association to Advance Collegiate Schools of Business (AACSB) accredited schools actually provide. In this quantitative study, two set of data were collected and compared, and a gap analysis conducted. A questionnaire was used to obtain data from members of the Business Marketing Association (BMA) regarding course preferences that would best prepare students for positions in marketing. Records analysis was then undertaken of the marketing course offerings of AACSB accredited MBA programs offering an emphasis in Marketing. Gap analysis was conducted by applying a test of difference to the results of the two data collection efforts. Results of the study suggest that some misalignment between school offerings and business needs exists.

Risk, surprises and black swans fundamental ideas and concepts in risk assessment and risk management

CERN Document Server

Aven, Terje

2014-01-01

Risk, Surprises and Black Swans provides an in depth analysis of the risk concept with a focus on the critical link to knowledge; and the lack of knowledge, that risk and probability judgements are based on.Based on technical scientific research, this book presents a new perspective to help you understand how to assess and manage surprising, extreme events, known as 'Black Swans'. This approach looks beyond the traditional probability-based principles to offer a broader insight into the important aspects of uncertain events and in doing so explores the ways to manage them.

Professional dental and oral surgery liability in Italy: a comparative analysis of the insurance products offered to health workers.

Science.gov (United States)

Di Lorenzo, Pierpaolo; Paternoster, Mariano; Nugnes, Mariarosaria; Pantaleo, Giuseppe; Graziano, Vincenzo; Niola, Massimo

2016-01-01

In Italy there has been an increase in claims for damages for alleged medical malpractice. A study was therefore conducted that aimed at assessing the content of the coverage of insurance policy contracts offered to oral health professionals by the insurance market. The sample analysed composed of 11 insurance policy contracts for professional dental liability offered from 2010 to 2015 by leading insurance companies operating in the Italian market. The insurance products analysed are structured on the "claims made" clause. No policy contract examined covers the damage due to the failure to acquire consent for dental treatment and, in most cases, damage due to unsatisfactory outcomes of treatment of an aesthetic nature and the failure to respect regulatory obligations on privacy. On entering into a professional liability insurance policy contract, the dentist should pay particular attention to the period covered by the guarantee, the risks both covered and excluded, as well as the extent of the limit of liability and any possible fixed/percentage excess. When choosing a professional liability contract, a dentist should examine the risks in relation to the professional activity carried out before signing.

Repetitive flood victims and acceptance of FEMA mitigation offers: an analysis with community-system policy implications.

Science.gov (United States)

Kick, Edward L; Fraser, James C; Fulkerson, Gregory M; McKinney, Laura A; De Vries, Daniel H

2011-07-01

Of all natural disasters, flooding causes the greatest amount of economic and social damage. The United States' Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) uses a number of hazard mitigation grant programmes for flood victims, including mitigation offers to relocate permanently repetitive flood loss victims. This study examines factors that help to explain the degree of difficulty repetitive flood loss victims experience when they make decisions about relocating permanently after multiple flood losses. Data are drawn from interviews with FEMA officials and a survey of flood victims from eight repetitive flooding sites. The qualitative and quantitative results show the importance of rational choices by flood victims in their mitigation decisions, as they relate to financial variables, perceptions of future risk, attachments to home and community, and the relationships between repetitive flood loss victims and the local flood management officials who help them. The results offer evidence to suggest the value of a more community-system approach to FEMA relocation practices. © 2011 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2011.

Reliability and validity of risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aven, Terje; Heide, Bjornar

2009-01-01

In this paper we investigate to what extent risk analysis meets the scientific quality requirements of reliability and validity. We distinguish between two types of approaches within risk analysis, relative frequency-based approaches and Bayesian approaches. The former category includes both traditional statistical inference methods and the so-called probability of frequency approach. Depending on the risk analysis approach, the aim of the analysis is different, the results are presented in different ways and consequently the meaning of the concepts reliability and validity are not the same.

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Risk and Uncertainties, Analysis and Evaluation: Lessons for Adaptation and Integration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yohe, G.; Dowlatabadi, H.

1999-01-01

This paper draws ten lessons from analyses of adaptation to climate change under conditions of risk and uncertainty: (1) Socio-economic systems will likely respond most to extreme realizations of climate change. (2) Systems have been responding to variations in climate for centuries. (3) Future change will effect future citizens and their institutions. (4) Human systems can be the sources of surprise. (5) Perceptions of risk depend upon welfare valuations that depend upon expectations. (6) Adaptive decisions will be made in response to climate change and climate change policy. (7) Analysis of adaptive decisions should recognize the second-best context of those decisions. (8) Climate change offers opportunity as well as risk. (9) All plausible futures should be explored. (10) Multiple methodological approaches should be accommodated. These lessons support two pieces of advice for the Third Assessment Report: (1) Work toward consensus, but not at the expense of thorough examination and reporting of the 'tails' of the distributions of the future. (2) Integrated assessment is only one unifying methodology; others that can better accommodate those tails should be encouraged and embraced. 12 refs

Safety analysis, risk assessment, and risk acceptance criteria

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jamali, K.

1997-01-01

This paper discusses a number of topics that relate safety analysis as documented in the Department of Energy (DOE) safety analysis reports (SARs), probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) as characterized primarily in the context of the techniques that have assumed some level of formality in commercial nuclear power plant applications, and risk acceptance criteria as an outgrowth of PRA applications. DOE SARs of interest are those that are prepared for DOE facilities under DOE Order 5480.23 and the implementing guidance in DOE STD-3009-94. It must be noted that the primary area of application for DOE STD-3009 is existing DOE facilities and that certain modifications of the STD-3009 approach are necessary in SARs for new facilities. Moreover, it is the hazard analysis (HA) and accident analysis (AA) portions of these SARs that are relevant to the present discussions. Although PRAs can be qualitative in nature, PRA as used in this paper refers more generally to all quantitative risk assessments and their underlying methods. HA as used in this paper refers more generally to all qualitative risk assessments and their underlying methods that have been in use in hazardous facilities other than nuclear power plants. This discussion includes both quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methods. PRA has been used, improved, developed, and refined since the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) was published in 1975 by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Much debate has ensued since WASH-1400 on exactly what the role of PRA should be in plant design, reactor licensing, 'ensuring' plant and process safety, and a large number of other decisions that must be made for potentially hazardous activities. Of particular interest in this area is whether the risks quantified using PRA should be compared with numerical risk acceptance criteria (RACs) to determine whether a facility is 'safe.' Use of RACs requires quantitative estimates of consequence frequency and magnitude

A background to risk analysis. Vol. 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Taylor, J.R.

1979-01-01

This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justification or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appendix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 2 treats generic methods of qualitative failure analysis. (BP)

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BUSINESS NEEDS AND GRADUATE BUSINESS SCHOOL OFFERINGS IN MARKETING

Science.gov (United States)

Thams, Meg; Glueck, Deborah

2010-01-01

The purpose of this study was to determine if a gap exists in the skill and knowledge businesses require of marketing employees and what the Association to Advance Collegiate Schools of Business (AACSB) accredited schools actually provide. In this quantitative study, two set of data were collected and compared, and a gap analysis conducted. A questionnaire was used to obtain data from members of the Business Marketing Association (BMA) regarding course preferences that would best prepare students for positions in marketing. Records analysis was then undertaken of the marketing course offerings of AACSB accredited MBA programs offering an emphasis in Marketing. Gap analysis was conducted by applying a test of difference to the results of the two data collection efforts. Results of the study suggest that some misalignment between school offerings and business needs exists. PMID:26726319

Bias in risk-benefit analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mazur, A.

1985-01-01

Risk-benefit analysis has become popular in the past decade as a means of improving decision making, especially in the area of technology policy. Here risk-benefit analysis is compared to other (equally defensible) approaches to decision making, showing how it favors some political interests more than others, and suggesting why it has recently come to the fore as a tool of political analysis. A considerable portion of the discussion concerns nuclear power. 6 references

Framing medical tourism: an analysis of persuasive appeals, risks and benefits, and new media features of medical tourism broker websites.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Hyunmin; Wright, Kevin B; O'Connor, Michaela; Wombacher, Kevin

2014-01-01

This study explores the benefits and risks featured in medical tourism broker websites, as well as the types of persuasive appeals that these websites use to attract potential customers, from a framing theory perspective. In addition, it examines relationships among types of appeals and specific types of health-related services offered by medical facilities abroad and the role of new media modalities within medical tourism broker sites. A content analysis of 91 medical tourism broker websites was conducted. The results indicate that the websites highly emphasized benefits while downplaying the risks. Specifically, despite offering consumers complicated and risky medical procedures, the websites failed to report any procedural, postoperative, or legal concerns associated with them. Moreover, the results indicated that the websites relied on heavy use of new media features to enhance the appeal of the medical services that were offered. The implications of these findings, future directions for research, and limitations of the study are discussed.

A model of pathways to artificial superintelligence catastrophe for risk and decision analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Barrett, Anthony M.; Baum, Seth D.

2017-03-01

An artificial superintelligence (ASI) is an artificial intelligence that is significantly more intelligent than humans in all respects. Whilst ASI does not currently exist, some scholars propose that it could be created sometime in the future, and furthermore that its creation could cause a severe global catastrophe, possibly even resulting in human extinction. Given the high stakes, it is important to analyze ASI risk and factor the risk into decisions related to ASI research and development. This paper presents a graphical model of major pathways to ASI catastrophe, focusing on ASI created via recursive self-improvement. The model uses the established risk and decision analysis modelling paradigms of fault trees and influence diagrams in order to depict combinations of events and conditions that could lead to AI catastrophe, as well as intervention options that could decrease risks. The events and conditions include select aspects of the ASI itself as well as the human process of ASI research, development and management. Model structure is derived from published literature on ASI risk. The model offers a foundation for rigorous quantitative evaluation and decision-making on the long-term risk of ASI catastrophe.

RISK ANALYSIS FOR SHIP CONVERTING PROJECT ACCOMPLISHMENT (Case study of KRI KP Converting Project

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dimas Endro W

2013-10-01

Full Text Available Ship converting has become as prospective activity in ship building area. Operational and economical aspect are the most dominant rationale. Baseon a new fuction of converted ship, a task list which contain several jobs that must be done is listed. This accomplishment schedule not only contain a task list, but also duration for certain job title. In practical apllication job duration is maintained based on experience of project manager.  Further more, total accomplish duration is setted as time accomplishment for the project. This setted time has become reference for the project bid. Occasionaly, if accomplishment time which offered is strict, than schedule slip become as potencial nightmare. For this situation, project manager has had a cristal clearconsideration to select a proper decision wheter he will take the tender offer or not. practically, project mananger has layed on his experience to handle previous project and face  penalty if the project delayed. This paper focussed on how to measure tender offer based on risk analysis, specially for converted ship tender which has a strike time accomplishment.A new application method to analysis proposed tender based on time and penalty parameter has become a topic of this paper.

A background to risk analysis. Vol. 4

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Taylor, J.R.

1979-01-01

This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles, and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justification or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appendix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 4 treats human error in plant operation. (BP)

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Are you a member of the Staff Association? Did you know that as a member you can benefit from the following special offers: BCGE (Banque Cantonale de Genève): personalized banking solutions with preferential conditions. TPG: reduced rates on annual transport passes for active and retired staff. Aquaparc: reduced ticket prices for children and adults at this Swiss waterpark in Le Bouveret. Walibi: reduced prices for children and adults at this French attraction park in Les Avenières. FNAC: 5% reduction on FNAC vouchers. For more information about all these offers, please consult our web site: http://association.web.cern.ch/association/en/OtherActivities/Offers.html

Advances in probabilistic risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hardung von Hardung, H.

1982-01-01

Probabilistic risk analysis can now look back upon almost a quarter century of intensive development. The early studies, whose methods and results are still referred to occasionally, however, only permitted rough estimates to be made of the probabilities of recognizable accident scenarios, failing to provide a method which could have served as a reference base in calculating the overall risk associated with nuclear power plants. The first truly solid attempt was the Rasmussen Study and, partly based on it, the German Risk Study. In those studies, probabilistic risk analysis has been given a much more precise basis. However, new methodologies have been developed in the meantime, which allow much more informative risk studies to be carried out. They have been found to be valuable tools for management decisions with respect to backfitting, reinforcement and risk limitation. Today they are mainly applied by specialized private consultants and have already found widespread application especially in the USA. (orig.) [de

Enterprise Architecture-Based Risk and Security Modelling and Analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jonkers, Henk; Quartel, Dick; Kordy, Barbara; Ekstedt, Mathias; Seong Kim, Deng

2016-01-01

The growing complexity of organizations and the increasing number of sophisticated cyber attacks asks for a systematic and integral approach to Enterprise Risk and Security Management (ERSM). As enterprise architecture offers the necessary integral perspective, including the business and IT aspects

WIPP fire hazards and risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1991-05-01

The purpose of this analysis was to conduct a fire hazards risk analysis of the Transuranic (TRU) contact-handled waste receipt, emplacement, and disposal activities at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). The technical bases and safety envelope for these operations are defined in the approved WIPP Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR). Although the safety documentation for the initial phase of the Test Program, the dry bin scale tests, has not yet been approved by the Department of Energy (DOE), reviews of the draft to date, including those by the Advisory Committee on Nuclear Facility Safety (ACNFS), have concluded that the dry bin scale tests present no significant risks in excess of those estimated in the approved WIPP FSAR. It is the opinion of the authors and reviewers of this analysis, based on sound engineering judgment and knowledge of the WIPP operations, that a Fire Hazards and Risk Analysis specific to the dry bin scale test program is not warranted prior to first waste receipt. This conclusion is further supported by the risk analysis presented in this document which demonstrates the level of risk to WIPP operations posed by fire to be extremely low. 15 refs., 41 figs., 48 tabs

Innovative gas offers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sala, O.; Mela, P.; Chatelain, F.

2007-01-01

New energy offers are progressively made available as the opening of gas market to competition becomes broader. How are organized the combined offers: gas, electricity, renewable energies and energy services? What are the marketing strategies implemented? Three participants at this round table present their offer and answer these questions. (J.S.)

What can be offered to couples at (possibly) increased genetic risk?

OpenAIRE

Read, Andrew P.; Donnai, Dian

2012-01-01

We review the reasons why a couple might seek specialist genetic counselling about a possible reproductive risk and the options available to them. Most commonly, the couple will be concerned about the risk of recurrence of a medical condition that has already occurred in the family. Sometimes, the increased risk may come from their ethnicity or because of a consanguineous marriage, rather than because any problem has occurred previously. The geneticist must identify the exact nature of any pr...

What can be offered to couples at (possibly) increased genetic risk?

Science.gov (United States)

Read, Andrew P; Donnai, Dian

2012-07-01

We review the reasons why a couple might seek specialist genetic counselling about a possible reproductive risk and the options available to them. Most commonly, the couple will be concerned about the risk of recurrence of a medical condition that has already occurred in the family. Sometimes, the increased risk may come from their ethnicity or because of a consanguineous marriage, rather than because any problem has occurred previously. The geneticist must identify the exact nature of any problem and determine the risks in the light of the mode of inheritance, any investigations undertaken and any other relevant information. The geneticist will then review the options open to the couple, and help them arrive at their own decision in a non-directive way. Some couples may opt to do nothing and let nature take its course but others may request prenatal or pre-implantation diagnosis, or they may avoid the conception of an at-risk child by using donor gametes, adoption or even decide not to have children.

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Second-Order Risk Constraints in Decision Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Love Ekenberg

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Recently, representations and methods aimed at analysing decision problems where probabilities and values (utilities are associated with distributions over them (second-order representations have been suggested. In this paper we present an approach to how imprecise information can be modelled by means of second-order distributions and how a risk evaluation process can be elaborated by integrating procedures for numerically imprecise probabilities and utilities. We discuss some shortcomings of the use of the principle of maximising the expected utility and of utility theory in general, and offer remedies by the introduction of supplementary decision rules based on a concept of risk constraints taking advantage of second-order distributions.

Risk Characterization uncertainties associated description, sensitivity analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carrillo, M.; Tovar, M.; Alvarez, J.; Arraez, M.; Hordziejewicz, I.; Loreto, I.

2013-01-01

The power point presentation is about risks to the estimated levels of exposure, uncertainty and variability in the analysis, sensitivity analysis, risks from exposure to multiple substances, formulation of guidelines for carcinogenic and genotoxic compounds and risk subpopulations

Advances in Risk Analysis with Big Data.

Science.gov (United States)

Choi, Tsan-Ming; Lambert, James H

2017-08-01

With cloud computing, Internet-of-things, wireless sensors, social media, fast storage and retrieval, etc., organizations and enterprises have access to unprecedented amounts and varieties of data. Current risk analysis methodology and applications are experiencing related advances and breakthroughs. For example, highway operations data are readily available, and making use of them reduces risks of traffic crashes and travel delays. Massive data of financial and enterprise systems support decision making under risk by individuals, industries, regulators, etc. In this introductory article, we first discuss the meaning of big data for risk analysis. We then examine recent advances in risk analysis with big data in several topic areas. For each area, we identify and introduce the relevant articles that are featured in the special issue. We conclude with a discussion on future research opportunities. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Risk Analysis of Volume Cheat Strategy in a Competitive Capacity Market

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Feng, Donghan; Xu, Zhao

2009-01-01

Capacity market provides additional revenue stream for the power suppliers. In a capacity-energy combined market environment, suppliers have incentives to deliberately over-offer their capacities in the capacity market while bid very high price in the energy and ancillary markets to avoid operation....... This paper analyzes the risks and profits of this capacity-over-offer behavior, and develops a method for computing non-operable penalty level which can prevent the capacity-over-offer behavior. It is found that the effective penalty level is highly correlated with the stochastic characteristics......-energy market environment....

Overcoming barriers to integrating economic analysis into risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Hoffmann, Sandra

2011-09-01

Regulatory risk analysis is designed to provide decisionmakers with a clearer understanding of how policies are likely to affect risk. The systems that produce risk are biological, physical, and social and economic. As a result, risk analysis is an inherently interdisciplinary task. Yet in practice, risk analysis has been interdisciplinary in only limited ways. Risk analysis could provide more accurate assessments of risk if there were better integration of economics and other social sciences into risk assessment itself. This essay examines how discussions about risk analysis policy have influenced the roles of various disciplines in risk analysis. It explores ways in which integrated bio/physical-economic modeling could contribute to more accurate assessments of risk. It reviews examples of the kind of integrated economics-bio/physical modeling that could be used to enhance risk assessment. The essay ends with a discussion of institutional barriers to greater integration of economic modeling into risk assessment and provides suggestions on how these might be overcome. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Maritime transportation risk analysis: Review and analysis in light of some foundational issues

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goerlandt, Floris; Montewka, Jakub

2015-01-01

Many methods and applications for maritime transportation risk analysis have been presented in the literature. In parallel, there is a recent focus on foundational issues in risk analysis, with calls for intensified research on fundamental concepts and principles underlying the scientific field. This paper presents a review and analysis of risk definitions, perspectives and scientific approaches to risk analysis found in the maritime transportation application area, focusing on applications addressing accidental risk of shipping in a sea area. For this purpose, a classification of risk definitions, an overview of elements in risk perspectives and a classification of approaches to risk analysis science are applied. Results reveal that in the application area, risk is strongly tied to probability, both in definitions and perspectives, while alternative views exist. A diffuse situation is also found concerning the scientific approach to risk analysis, with realist, proceduralist and constructivist foundations co-existing. Realist approaches dominate the application area. Very few applications systematically account for uncertainty, neither concerning the evidence base nor in relation to the limitations of the risk model in relation to the space of possible outcomes. Some suggestions are made to improve the current situation, aiming to strengthen the scientific basis for risk analysis. - Highlights: • Risk analyses in maritime transportation analysed in light of foundational issues. • Focus on definitions, perspectives and scientific approaches to risk analysis. • Probability-based definitions and realist approaches dominate the field. • Findings support calls for increased focus on foundational issues in risk research. • Some suggestions are made to improve the current situation

STOCHASTIC METHODS IN RISK ANALYSIS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vladimíra OSADSKÁ

2017-06-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we review basic stochastic methods which can be used to extend state-of-the-art deterministic analytical methods for risk analysis. We can conclude that the standard deterministic analytical methods highly depend on the practical experience and knowledge of the evaluator and therefore, the stochastic methods should be introduced. The new risk analysis methods should consider the uncertainties in input values. We present how large is the impact on the results of the analysis solving practical example of FMECA with uncertainties modelled using Monte Carlo sampling.

Risk Analysis of Telecom Enterprise Financing

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

YU Hua; SHU Hua-ying

2005-01-01

The main research objects in this paper are the causes searching and risk estimating method for telecom enterprises' financial risks. The multi-mode financing for telecom enterprises makes it flexible to induce the capital and obtain the profit by corresponding projects. But there are also potential risks going with these financing modes. After making analysis of categories and causes of telecom enterprises' financing risk, a method by Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is put forward to estimating the financing risk. And the author makes her suggestion and opinion by example analysis, in order to provide some ideas and basis for telecom enterprise's financing decision-making.

Oil-spill risk analysis: Central and western Gulf of Mexico Outer Continental Shelf, Lease Sales 139 and 141. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Johnson, W.R.; Lear, E.M.

1992-02-01

The Federal Government has proposed to offer Outer Continental Shelf lands in the Gulf of Mexico for oil and gas leasing. Because oil spills may occur from activities associated with offshore oil production, the Minerals Management Service conducts a formal risk assessment. The effects of oil spills that could occur during oil and gas production must be considered. The report summarizes results of an oil spill risk analysis conducted for the proposed Gulf of Mexico Outer Continental Shelf Lease Sales 139 and 141

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Probabilistic risk analysis for nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hauptmanns, U.

1988-01-01

Risk analysis is applied if the calculation of risk from observed failures is not possible, because events contributing substantially to risk are too seldom, as in the case of nuclear reactors. The process of analysis provides a number of benefits. Some of them are listed. After this by no means complete enumeration of possible benefits to be derived from a risk analysis. An outline of risk studiesd for PWR's with some comments on the models used are given. The presentation is indebted to the detailed treatment of the subject given in the PRA Procedures Guide. Thereafter some results of the German Risk Study, Phase B, which is under way are communicated. The paper concludes with some remarks on probabilistic considerations in licensing procedures. (orig./DG)

University Offer Rates for Candidates from Different Ethnic Categories

Science.gov (United States)

Noden, Philip; Shiner, Michael; Modood, Tariq

2014-01-01

Previous research suggested that candidates from some black and minority ethnic groups were less likely to receive an offer of a place from an "old" university. These findings were disputed in a re-analysis carried out for HEFCE which found that only Pakistani candidates were significantly less likely to receive offers (from both…

Single-shell tank interim stabilization risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Basche, A.D.

1998-01-01

The purpose of the Single-Shell Tank (SST) Interim Stabilization Risk Analysis is to provide a cost and schedule risk analysis of HNF-2358, Rev. 1, Single-Shell Tank Interim Stabilization Project Plan (Project Plan) (Ross et al. 1998). The analysis compares the required cost profile by fiscal year (Section 4.2) and revised schedule completion date (Section 4.5) to the Project Plan. The analysis also evaluates the executability of the Project Plan and recommends a path forward for risk mitigation

Multiple Sclerosis Increases Fracture Risk: A Meta-Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Guixian Dong

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Purpose. The association between multiple sclerosis (MS and fracture risk has been reported, but results of previous studies remain controversial and ambiguous. To assess the association between MS and fracture risk, a meta-analysis was performed. Method. Based on comprehensive searches of the PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science, we identified outcome data from all articles estimating the association between MS and fracture risk. The pooled risk ratios (RRs with 95% confidence intervals (CIs were calculated. Results. A significant association between MS and fracture risk was found. This result remained statistically significant when the adjusted RRs were combined. Subgroup analysis stratified by the site of fracture suggested significant associations between MS and tibia fracture risk, femur fracture risk, hip fracture risk, pelvis fracture risk, vertebrae fracture risk, and humerus fracture risk. In the subgroup analysis by gender, female MS patients had increased fracture risk. When stratified by history of drug use, use of antidepressants, hypnotics/anxiolytics, anticonvulsants, and glucocorticoids increased the risk of fracture risk in MS patients. Conclusions. This meta-analysis demonstrated that MS was significantly associated with fracture risk.

A students' Needs-analysis Study of Translation Studies Curriculum offered at Master’s level in Iranian Universities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Navid Nasrollahi Shahri

2016-07-01

Full Text Available This study aimed to investigate the program of Translation Studies, offered in Iranian universities at the level of Master, in terms of its curriculum through a needs analysis model offered by Altschuld and Witkin (1995. To do so, after a review of the related literature and conducting a documentary analysis, the researchers chose to look at the issue from different perspectives. Current instructors, professionals who are involved in the business of translation and a number of graduated students were interviewed so as to gather enough data to design a questionnaire, which constitutes the backbone of the study. Since the study aimed at students’ perception, the survey was conducted on students of Translation Studies program, which was based on the interviews with instructors, graduates of the program and the professionals working in the market. Afterward, the questionnaire data were gathered and, subsequently, went under statistical procedures. Based on the results, the researchers came up with practical recommendations for curriculum renewal, based on the needs-analysis model adopted. As this study  has adopted a triangulation approach to investigate the curriculum, the results and recommendations, although limited, can be of great use to educators, curriculum developers and translator trainers in particular.

[Menus offered in long-term care homes: quality of meal service and nutritional analysis].

Science.gov (United States)

Rodríguez Rejón, Ana Isabel; Ruiz López, María Dolores; Malafarina, Vincenzo; Puerta, Antonio; Zuñiga, Antonia; Artacho, Reyes

2017-06-05

Institutionalization is a risk factor for malnutrition. Low energy intake and/or nutrient deficiencies are considered to be the main causes. To evaluate the quality of meals and meal service as well as the nutritional value of the main menus (regular menu, menu for diabetics, and pureed menu) offered in three long-term care (LTC) homes located in the metropolitan area of Granada (Spain). Cross-sectional study. A validated "quality of meals and meal service" set of indicators was applied. The menus were assessed by weighed food records on 14 consecutive days. The results were compared with the dietary reference intakes (DRIs) and the recommended number of servings. Important deficiencies in the quality of meals and meal service have been reported. Average energy varies from 1,788 to 2,124 kcal/day in the regular menus, from 1,687 to 1,924 kcal/day in the menus for diabetics, and from 1,518 to 1,639 kcal/day in the pureed menus. Average protein varied from 71.4 to 75.4 g/day, from 72.6 to 76.1 g/day, and from 50.5 to 54.7 g/day, respectively. None of the menus complied with the recommendations for fiber, potassium, magnesium, iodine, vitamin D, vitamin E, folate, nor for vegetables, fruit, milk products, olive oil, legumes, or nuts. It is necessary to ensure the implementation of regular routines for controlling the quality of meals and meal service as well as the nutritional value of the menus offered in LTC homes.

38 CFR 75.115 - Risk analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Risk analysis. 75.115 Section 75.115 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS (CONTINUED) INFORMATION SECURITY MATTERS Data Breaches § 75.115 Risk analysis. If a data breach involving sensitive personal information that is processed or...

Managing Entrepreneurial Risks under Conditions of Instability of Economic Environment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Miroshnichenko Yurii V.

2013-12-01

Full Text Available The article analyses the state of an organisation under modern conditions of establishment of new competitive relations between subjects of economic activity and transition to the model of market economy, justifies urgency of studies devoted to methods of entrepreneurial risk management. The article analyses factors that influence the risk level and offers own definition of this category. The article sets the task of improvement of the systemised classification of entrepreneurial risk management methods. In the result of the conducted analysis, the authors offered an improved systemised classification of risk management methods and justifies efficiency of its use.

FINANCIAL RISK MANAGEMENT IN TRADE BANKS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ms. Tamara Ye. Kononenko

2016-09-01

Full Text Available The paper clarifies the concepts of «risk», «financial risk» in banking business, and considers the main problems of financial risk management in trade banks while financing borrowers. The authors single out the most relevant problems, and conduct the analysis of overdue payment in case of OJSC “Sberbank of Russia”. The authors also offer a number of measures to minimize financial risks in trade bank activities in modern conditions.

Common approach of risks analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Noviello, L.; Naviglio, A.

1996-01-01

Although, following the resolutions of the High German Court, the protection level of the human beings is an objective which can change in time, it is obvious that it is an important point when there is a risk for the population. This is true more particularly for the industrial plants whose possible accidents could affect the population. The accidents risk analysis indicates that there is no conceptual difference between the risks of a nuclear power plant and those of the other industrial plants as chemical plants, the gas distribution system and the hydraulic dams. A legislation analysis induced by the Seveso Directive for the industrial risks give some important indications which should always be followed. This work analyses more particularly the legislative situation in different European countries and identifies some of the most important characteristics. Indeed, for most of the countries, the situation is different and it is a later difficulties source for nuclear power plants. In order to strengthen this reasoning, this paper presents some preliminary results of an analysis of a nuclear power plant following the approach of other industrial plants. In conclusion, it will be necessary to analyse again the risks assessment approach for nuclear power plants because the real protection level of human beings in a country is determined by the less regulated of the dangerous industrial plants existing at the surroundings. (O.M.)

Standardised risk analysis as a communication tool

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pluess, Ch.; Montanarini, M.; Bernauer, M.

1998-01-01

Full text of publication follows: several European countries require a risk analysis for the production, storage or transport a dangerous goods. This requirement imposes considerable administrative effort for some sectors of the industry. In order to minimize the effort of such studies, a generic risk analysis for an industrial sector proved to help. Standardised procedures can consequently be derived for efficient performance of the risk investigations. This procedure was successfully established in Switzerland for natural gas transmission lines and fossil fuel storage plants. The development process of the generic risk analysis involved an intense discussion between industry and authorities about methodology of assessment and the criteria of acceptance. This process finally led to scientific consistent modelling tools for risk analysis and to an improved communication from the industry to the authorities and the public. As a recent example, the Holland-Italy natural gas transmission pipeline is demonstrated, where this method was successfully employed. Although this pipeline traverses densely populated areas in Switzerland, using this established communication method, the risk problems could be solved without delaying the planning process. (authors)

Introduction of the risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Campon, G.; Martinez, I.

2013-01-01

An introduction of risks analysis was given in the exposition which main issues were: food innocuousness, world, regional and national food context,change of paradigms, health definition, risk, codex, standardization, food chain role, trade agreement, codex alimentarius, food transmission diseases cost impact

Risk Analysis Group annual progress report 1984

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1985-06-01

The activities of the Risk Analysis Group at Risoe during 1984 are presented. These include descriptions in some detail of work on general development topics and risk analysis performed as contractor. (author)

Risk-based decision analysis for groundwater operable units

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chiaramonte, G.R.

1995-01-01

This document proposes a streamlined approach and methodology for performing risk assessment in support of interim remedial measure (IRM) decisions involving the remediation of contaminated groundwater on the Hanford Site. This methodology, referred to as ''risk-based decision analysis,'' also supports the specification of target cleanup volumes and provides a basis for design and operation of the groundwater remedies. The risk-based decision analysis can be completed within a short time frame and concisely documented. The risk-based decision analysis is more versatile than the qualitative risk assessment (QRA), because it not only supports the need for IRMs, but also provides criteria for defining the success of the IRMs and provides the risk-basis for decisions on final remedies. For these reasons, it is proposed that, for groundwater operable units, the risk-based decision analysis should replace the more elaborate, costly, and time-consuming QRA

How to Perform an Ethical Risk Analysis (eRA).

Science.gov (United States)

Hansson, Sven Ove

2018-02-26

Ethical analysis is often needed in the preparation of policy decisions on risk. A three-step method is proposed for performing an ethical risk analysis (eRA). In the first step, the people concerned are identified and categorized in terms of the distinct but compatible roles of being risk-exposed, a beneficiary, or a decisionmaker. In the second step, a more detailed classification of roles and role combinations is performed, and ethically problematic role combinations are identified. In the third step, further ethical deliberation takes place, with an emphasis on individual risk-benefit weighing, distributional analysis, rights analysis, and power analysis. Ethical issues pertaining to subsidiary risk roles, such as those of experts and journalists, are also treated in this phase. An eRA should supplement, not replace, a traditional risk analysis that puts emphasis on the probabilities and severities of undesirable events but does not cover ethical issues such as agency, interpersonal relationships, and justice. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

RISK ANALYSIS IN INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY AND COMMUNICATION OUTSOURCING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Edmir Parada Vasques Prado

2011-12-01

Full Text Available This research aims at evaluating the risk analysis process in Information Technology and Communication (ICT outsourcing conducted by organizations of the private sector. The research is characterized by being a descriptive, quantitative and transversal type study, which was used the survey method. Data were collected through questionnaire, the sample is not random and we used a convenience sampling process. The research made contributions to understanding the risk analysis process in ICT services outsourcing, and identified statistically significant relationships between risk analysis, organization's size and its industry, and between risk analysis and diversity of outsourced services

Risk-benefit analysis and public policy: a bibliography

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Clark, E.M.; Van Horn, A.J.

1976-11-01

Risk-benefit analysis has been implicitly practiced whenever decision-makers are confronted with decisions involving risks to life, health, or to the environment. Various methodologies have been developed to evaluate relevant criteria and to aid in assessing the impacts of alternative projects. Among these have been cost-benefit analysis, which has been widely used for project evaluation. However, in many cases it has been difficult to assign dollar costs to those criteria involving risks and benefits which are not now assigned explicit monetary values in our economic system. Hence, risk-benefit analysis has evolved to become more than merely an extension of cost-benefit analysis, and many methods have been applied to examine the trade-offs between risks and benefits. In addition, new scientific and statistical techniques have been developed for assessing current and future risks. The 950 references included in this bibliography are meant to suggest the breadth of those methodologies which have been applied to decisions involving risk.

Risk-benefit analysis and public policy: a bibliography

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clark, E.M.; Van Horn, A.J.

1976-11-01

Risk-benefit analysis has been implicitly practiced whenever decision-makers are confronted with decisions involving risks to life, health, or to the environment. Various methodologies have been developed to evaluate relevant criteria and to aid in assessing the impacts of alternative projects. Among these have been cost-benefit analysis, which has been widely used for project evaluation. However, in many cases it has been difficult to assign dollar costs to those criteria involving risks and benefits which are not now assigned explicit monetary values in our economic system. Hence, risk-benefit analysis has evolved to become more than merely an extension of cost-benefit analysis, and many methods have been applied to examine the trade-offs between risks and benefits. In addition, new scientific and statistical techniques have been developed for assessing current and future risks. The 950 references included in this bibliography are meant to suggest the breadth of those methodologies which have been applied to decisions involving risk

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Methods for Risk Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alverbro, Karin

2010-01-01

Many decision-making situations today affect humans and the environment. In practice, many such decisions are made without an overall view and prioritise one or other of the two areas. Now and then these two areas of regulation come into conflict, e.g. the best alternative as regards environmental considerations is not always the best from a human safety perspective and vice versa. This report was prepared within a major project with the aim of developing a framework in which both the environmental aspects and the human safety aspects are integrated, and decisions can be made taking both fields into consideration. The safety risks have to be analysed in order to be successfully avoided and one way of doing this is to use different kinds of risk analysis methods. There is an abundance of existing methods to choose from and new methods are constantly being developed. This report describes some of the risk analysis methods currently available for analysing safety and examines the relationships between them. The focus here is mainly on human safety aspects

Social dataset analysis and mapping tools for Risk Perception: resilience, people preparation and communication tools

Science.gov (United States)

Peters-Guarin, Graciela; Garcia, Carolina; Frigerio, Simone

2010-05-01

management, to know in advance the different levels of risk perception and preparedness existing among several sectors of the population. Knowing where the most vulnerable population is located may optimize the use of resources, better direct the initial efforts and organize the evacuation and attention procedures. As part of the CBEWS, a comprehensive survey was applied in the study area to measure, among others features, the levels of risk perception, preparation and information received about natural hazards. After a statistical and direct analysis on a complete social dataset recorded, a spatial information distribution is actually in progress. Based on boundaries features (municipalities and sub-districts) of Italian Institute of Statistics (ISTAT), a local scale background has been granted (a private address level is not accessible for privacy rules so the local districts-ID inside municipality has been the detail level performed) and a spatial location of the surveyed population has been completed. The geometric component has been defined and actually it is possible to create a local distribution of social parameters derived from perception questionnaries results. A lot of raw information and social-statistical analysis offer different mirror and "visual concept" of risk perception. For this reason a concrete complete GeoDB is under working for the complete organization of the dataset. By a technical point of view the environment for data sharing is based on a complete open source web-service environment, to offer manually-made and user-friendly interface to this kind of information. Final aim is to offer different switches of dataset, using the same scale prototype and data hierarchical structure, to provide and compare social location of risk perception in the most detailed level.

Considering Risk and Resilience in Decision-Making

Science.gov (United States)

Torres-Pomales, Wilfredo

2015-01-01

This paper examines the concepts of decision-making, risk analysis, uncertainty and resilience analysis. The relation between risk, vulnerability, and resilience is analyzed. The paper describes how complexity, uncertainty, and ambiguity are the most critical factors in the definition of the approach and criteria for decision-making. Uncertainty in its various forms is what limits our ability to offer definitive answers to questions about the outcomes of alternatives in a decision-making process. It is shown that, although resilience-informed decision-making would seem fundamentally different from risk-informed decision-making, this is not the case as resilience-analysis can be easily incorporated within existing analytic-deliberative decision-making frameworks.

Flood Risk Assessment Based On Security Deficit Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Beck, J.; Metzger, R.; Hingray, B.; Musy, A.

Risk is a human perception: a given risk may be considered as acceptable or unac- ceptable depending on the group that has to face that risk. Flood risk analysis of- ten estimates economic losses from damages, but neglects the question of accept- able/unacceptable risk. With input from land use managers, politicians and other stakeholders, risk assessment based on security deficit analysis determines objects with unacceptable risk and their degree of security deficit. Such a risk assessment methodology, initially developed by the Swiss federal authorities, is illustrated by its application on a reach of the Alzette River (Luxembourg) in the framework of the IRMA-SPONGE FRHYMAP project. Flood risk assessment always involves a flood hazard analysis, an exposed object vulnerability analysis, and an analysis combing the results of these two previous analyses. The flood hazard analysis was done with the quasi-2D hydraulic model FldPln to produce flood intensity maps. Flood intensity was determined by the water height and velocity. Object data for the vulnerability analysis, provided by the Luxembourg government, were classified according to their potential damage. Potential damage is expressed in terms of direct, human life and secondary losses. A thematic map was produced to show the object classification. Protection goals were then attributed to the object classes. Protection goals are assigned in terms of an acceptable flood intensity for a certain flood frequency. This is where input from land use managers and politicians comes into play. The perception of risk in the re- gion or country influences the protection goal assignment. Protection goals as used in Switzerland were used in this project. Thematic maps showing the protection goals of each object in the case study area for a given flood frequency were produced. Com- parison between an object's protection goal and the intensity of the flood that touched the object determine the acceptability of the risk and the

Analysis and management of risks experienced in tunnel construction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cagatay Pamukcu

2015-12-01

Full Text Available In this study, first of all, the definitions of "risk", "risk analysis", "risk assessment" and "risk management" were made to avoid any confusions about these terms and significance of risk analysis and management in engineering projects was emphasized. Then, both qualitative and quantitative risk analysis techniques were mentioned and within the scope of the study, Event Tree Analysis method was selected in order to analyze the risks regarding TBM (Tunnel Boring Machine operations in tunnel construction. After all hazards that would be encountered during tunnel construction by TBM method had been investigated, those hazards were undergoing a Preliminary Hazard Analysis to sort out and prioritize the risks with high scores. When the risk scores were taken into consideration, it was seen that the hazards with high risk scores could be classified into 4 groups which are excavation + support induced accidents, accidents stemming from geologic conditions, auxiliary works, and project contract. According to these four classified groups of initiating events, Event Tree Analysis was conducted by taking into care 4 countermeasures apart from each other. Finally, the quantitative and qualitative consequences of Event Tree Analyses, which were undertaken for all initiating events, were investigated and interpreted together by making comparisons and referring to previous studies.

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proposes the following offer: 15% discount for the Staff Association members who enroll their children in summer FUTUREKIDS activities. Extracurricular Activities For Your Children The FUTUREKIDS Geneva Learning Center is open 6 days a week and offers a selection of after-school extracurricular activities for children and teenagers (ages 5 to 16). In addition to teaching in its Learning Centers, Futurekids collaborates with many private schools in Suisse Romande (Florimont, Moser, Champittet, Ecole Nouvelle, etc.) and with the Département de l'Instruction Publique (DIP) Genève. Courses and camps are usually in French but English groups can be set up on demand. FUTUREKIDS Computer Camps (during school holidays) FUTUREKIDS Computer Camps are a way of having a great time during vacations while learning something useful, possibly discovering a new hobby or even, why not, a future profession. Our computer camps are at the forefront of technology. Themes are diverse and suit all ...

Operational Risk Defined Through a Complex Operating Environment

Science.gov (United States)

2015-02-26

analysis . But the report noted that “CJTF-HOA’s presence in Africa offers benefits such as its ability to respond to contingencies, provide forces for...18 Analysis ...Development JOPP Joint Operations Planning Process NGO Non-Governmental Organization PRC Profitable Risk Control SWOT Strengths, Weaknesses

ANALYSIS OF RISK FACTORS AT THE STAGE OF THE PRODUCT LIFE CYCLE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. Skopenko

2016-10-01

Full Text Available The article outlines and summarizes the risks of enterprises at different stages of product life cycle. A diagnose and assess of risks according to the main stages of the product development are offered. Groups of factors that shape the economic risks at different stages of the product life cycle, by the possible negative consequences of their impact are formulated. To reduce the probable losses of the company and a reasonable assortment portfolio formation generalized classification of risks that are typical for any company is proposed.

Risk, risk conflicts, sub-politics and social and environmental accounting and accountability in Scottish salmon farming

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Georgakopoulos, G.; Thomson, I.

2008-01-01

Purpose To offer a theoretical analysis, inspired by contemporary research into risk, of the social and environmental accounting processes observed in an empirical study on Scottish salmon farming. Methodology / Approach This paper used a Grounded Theory approach. Empirical evidence was collected on

49 CFR 260.17 - Credit risk premium analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Credit risk premium analysis. 260.17 Section 260... Financial Assistance § 260.17 Credit risk premium analysis. (a) When Federal appropriations are not available to cover the total subsidy cost, the Administrator will determine the Credit Risk Premium...

Benefits and Limitations of Real Options Analysis for the Practice of River Flood Risk Management

Science.gov (United States)

Kind, Jarl M.; Baayen, Jorn H.; Botzen, W. J. Wouter

2018-04-01

Decisions on long-lived flood risk management (FRM) investments are complex because the future is uncertain. Flexibility and robustness can be used to deal with future uncertainty. Real options analysis (ROA) provides a welfare-economics framework to design and evaluate robust and flexible FRM strategies under risk or uncertainty. Although its potential benefits are large, ROA is hardly used in todays' FRM practice. In this paper, we investigate benefits and limitations of a ROA, by applying it to a realistic FRM case study for an entire river branch. We illustrate how ROA identifies optimal short-term investments and values future options. We develop robust dike investment strategies and value the flexibility offered by additional room for the river measures. We benchmark the results of ROA against those of a standard cost-benefit analysis and show ROA's potential policy implications. The ROA for a realistic case requires a high level of geographical detail, a large ensemble of scenarios, and the inclusion of stakeholders' preferences. We found several limitations of applying the ROA. It is complex. In particular, relevant sources of uncertainty need to be recognized, quantified, integrated, and discretized in scenarios, requiring subjective choices and expert judgment. Decision trees have to be generated and stakeholders' preferences have to be translated into decision rules. On basis of this study, we give general recommendations to use high discharge scenarios for the design of measures with high fixed costs and few alternatives. Lower scenarios may be used when alternatives offer future flexibility.

Computational Aspects of Dam Risk Analysis: Findings and Challenges

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ignacio Escuder-Bueno

2016-09-01

Full Text Available In recent years, risk analysis techniques have proved to be a useful tool to inform dam safety management. This paper summarizes the outcomes of three themes related to dam risk analysis discussed in the Benchmark Workshops organized by the International Commission on Large Dams Technical Committee on “Computational Aspects of Analysis and Design of Dams.” In the 2011 Benchmark Workshop, estimation of the probability of failure of a gravity dam for the sliding failure mode was discussed. Next, in 2013, the discussion focused on the computational challenges of the estimation of consequences in dam risk analysis. Finally, in 2015, the probability of sliding and overtopping in an embankment was analyzed. These Benchmark Workshops have allowed a complete review of numerical aspects for dam risk analysis, showing that risk analysis methods are a very useful tool to analyze the risk of dam systems, including downstream consequence assessments and the uncertainty of structural models.

Integrating Household Risk Mitigation Behavior in Flood Risk Analysis: An Agent-Based Model Approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Haer, Toon; Botzen, W J Wouter; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen C J H

2017-10-01

Recent studies showed that climate change and socioeconomic trends are expected to increase flood risks in many regions. However, in these studies, human behavior is commonly assumed to be constant, which neglects interaction and feedback loops between human and environmental systems. This neglect of human adaptation leads to a misrepresentation of flood risk. This article presents an agent-based model that incorporates human decision making in flood risk analysis. In particular, household investments in loss-reducing measures are examined under three economic decision models: (1) expected utility theory, which is the traditional economic model of rational agents; (2) prospect theory, which takes account of bounded rationality; and (3) a prospect theory model, which accounts for changing risk perceptions and social interactions through a process of Bayesian updating. We show that neglecting human behavior in flood risk assessment studies can result in a considerable misestimation of future flood risk, which is in our case study an overestimation of a factor two. Furthermore, we show how behavior models can support flood risk analysis under different behavioral assumptions, illustrating the need to include the dynamic adaptive human behavior of, for instance, households, insurers, and governments. The method presented here provides a solid basis for exploring human behavior and the resulting flood risk with respect to low-probability/high-impact risks. © 2016 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

Putting problem formulation at the forefront of GMO risk analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Tepfer, Mark; Racovita, Monica; Craig, Wendy

2013-01-01

When applying risk assessment and the broader process of risk analysis to decisions regarding the dissemination of genetically modified organisms (GMOs), the process has a tendency to become remarkably complex. Further, as greater numbers of countries consider authorising the large-scale dissemination of GMOs, and as GMOs with more complex traits reach late stages of development, there has been increasing concern about the burden posed by the complexity of risk analysis. We present here an improved approach for GMO risk analysis that gives a central role to problem formulation. Further, the risk analysis strategy has been clarified and simplified in order to make rigorously scientific risk assessment and risk analysis more broadly accessible to diverse stakeholder groups.

Streamlining project delivery through risk analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

2015-08-01

Project delivery is a significant area of concern and is subject to several risks throughout Plan Development : Process (PDP). These risks are attributed to major areas of project development, such as environmental : analysis, right-of-way (ROW) acqu...

Reliability and risk analysis methods research plan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1984-10-01

This document presents a plan for reliability and risk analysis methods research to be performed mainly by the Reactor Risk Branch (RRB), Division of Risk Analysis and Operations (DRAO), Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research. It includes those activities of other DRAO branches which are very closely related to those of the RRB. Related or interfacing programs of other divisions, offices and organizations are merely indicated. The primary use of this document is envisioned as an NRC working document, covering about a 3-year period, to foster better coordination in reliability and risk analysis methods development between the offices of Nuclear Regulatory Research and Nuclear Reactor Regulation. It will also serve as an information source for contractors and others to more clearly understand the objectives, needs, programmatic activities and interfaces together with the overall logical structure of the program

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Multi-hazard risk analysis for management strategies

Science.gov (United States)

Kappes, M.; Keiler, M.; Bell, R.; Glade, T.

2009-04-01

Risk management is very often operating in a reactive way, responding to an event, instead of proactive starting with risk analysis and building up the whole process of risk evaluation, prevention, event management and regeneration. Since damage and losses from natural hazards raise continuously more and more studies, concepts (e.g. Switzerland or South Tyrol-Bolozano) and software packages (e.g. ARMAGEDOM, HAZUS or RiskScape) are developed to guide, standardize and facilitate the risk analysis. But these approaches focus on different aspects and are mostly closely adapted to the situation (legislation, organization of the administration, specific processes etc.) of the specific country or region. We propose in this study the development of a flexible methodology for multi-hazard risk analysis, identifying the stakeholders and their needs, processes and their characteristics, modeling approaches as well as incoherencies occurring by combining all these different aspects. Based on this concept a flexible software package will be established consisting of ArcGIS as central base and being complemented by various modules for hazard modeling, vulnerability assessment and risk calculation. Not all modules will be developed newly but taken from the current state-of-the-art and connected or integrated into ArcGIS. For this purpose two study sites, Valtellina in Italy and Bacelonnette in France, were chosen and the hazards types debris flows, rockfalls, landslides, avalanches and floods are planned to be included in the tool for a regional multi-hazard risk analysis. Since the central idea of this tool is its flexibility this will only be a first step, in the future further processes and scales can be included and the instrument thus adapted to any study site.

Environmental risk analysis of hazardous material rail transportation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Saat, Mohd Rapik, E-mail: mohdsaat@illinois.edu [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1243 Newmark Civil Engineering Laboratory, 205 North Mathews Avenue, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); Werth, Charles J.; Schaeffer, David [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1243 Newmark Civil Engineering Laboratory, 205 North Mathews Avenue, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); Yoon, Hongkyu [Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM 87123 (United States); Barkan, Christopher P.L. [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1243 Newmark Civil Engineering Laboratory, 205 North Mathews Avenue, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States)

2014-01-15

Highlights: • Comprehensive, nationwide risk assessment of hazardous material rail transportation. • Application of a novel environmental (i.e. soil and groundwater) consequence model. • Cleanup cost and total shipment distance are the most significant risk factors. • Annual risk varies from $20,000 to $560,000 for different products. • Provides information on the risk cost associated with specific product shipments. -- Abstract: An important aspect of railroad environmental risk management involves tank car transportation of hazardous materials. This paper describes a quantitative, environmental risk analysis of rail transportation of a group of light, non-aqueous-phase liquid (LNAPL) chemicals commonly transported by rail in North America. The Hazardous Materials Transportation Environmental Consequence Model (HMTECM) was used in conjunction with a geographic information system (GIS) analysis of environmental characteristics to develop probabilistic estimates of exposure to different spill scenarios along the North American rail network. The risk analysis incorporated the estimated clean-up cost developed using the HMTECM, route-specific probability distributions of soil type and depth to groundwater, annual traffic volume, railcar accident rate, and tank car safety features, to estimate the nationwide annual risk of transporting each product. The annual risk per car-mile (car-km) and per ton-mile (ton-km) was also calculated to enable comparison between chemicals and to provide information on the risk cost associated with shipments of these products. The analysis and the methodology provide a quantitative approach that will enable more effective management of the environmental risk of transporting hazardous materials.

Environmental risk analysis of hazardous material rail transportation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saat, Mohd Rapik; Werth, Charles J.; Schaeffer, David; Yoon, Hongkyu; Barkan, Christopher P.L.

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Comprehensive, nationwide risk assessment of hazardous material rail transportation. • Application of a novel environmental (i.e. soil and groundwater) consequence model. • Cleanup cost and total shipment distance are the most significant risk factors. • Annual risk varies from $20,000 to $560,000 for different products. • Provides information on the risk cost associated with specific product shipments. -- Abstract: An important aspect of railroad environmental risk management involves tank car transportation of hazardous materials. This paper describes a quantitative, environmental risk analysis of rail transportation of a group of light, non-aqueous-phase liquid (LNAPL) chemicals commonly transported by rail in North America. The Hazardous Materials Transportation Environmental Consequence Model (HMTECM) was used in conjunction with a geographic information system (GIS) analysis of environmental characteristics to develop probabilistic estimates of exposure to different spill scenarios along the North American rail network. The risk analysis incorporated the estimated clean-up cost developed using the HMTECM, route-specific probability distributions of soil type and depth to groundwater, annual traffic volume, railcar accident rate, and tank car safety features, to estimate the nationwide annual risk of transporting each product. The annual risk per car-mile (car-km) and per ton-mile (ton-km) was also calculated to enable comparison between chemicals and to provide information on the risk cost associated with shipments of these products. The analysis and the methodology provide a quantitative approach that will enable more effective management of the environmental risk of transporting hazardous materials

Perceived value creation process: focus on the company offer

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Irena Pandža Bajs

2012-12-01

Full Text Available In the competitive business environment, as the number of rational consumers faced with many choices increases, companies can achieve their dominance best by applying the business concepts oriented to consumers in order to deliver a value which is different and better than that of their competitors. Among the various products on the market, an educated consumer chooses the offer that provides the greatest value for him/her. Therefore, it is essential for each company to determine how consumers perceive the value of its offer, and which factors determine the high level of perceived value for current and potential consumers. An analysis of these factors provides guidance on how to improve the existing offer and what the offer to be delivered in the future should be like. That could increase the perceived value of the company offer and result in a positive impact on consumer satisfaction and on establishing a stronger, longterm relationship with consumers. The process of defining the perceived value of a particular market offer is affected by the factors of the respective company’s offer as well as by competition factors, consumer factors and buying process factors. The aim of this paper is to analyze the relevant knowledge about the process of creating the perceived value of the company’s market offer and the factors that influence this process. The paper presents a conceptual model of the perceived value creation process in consumers’ mind.

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Obstetric risk avoidance: Will anyone be offering obstetrics in private ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

By the end of the decade indemnifying obstetric risk will probably be too expensive for doctors in private practice. Non-indemnified doctors will be unable or unwilling to do private deliveries; however, women will still fall pregnant and require delivery. These women will inevitably be forced to deliver in provincial facilities, ...

The Program Module of Information Risk Numerical Estimation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. S. Stepanova

2011-03-01

Full Text Available The algorithm of information risks analysis realized in the program module on the basis of threats matrixes and fuzzy cognitive maps describing potential threats on resources is offered in this paper.

Diastolic pressure indices offer a novel approach to predicting risk of graft loss after pediatric heart transplant.

Science.gov (United States)

Albers, Erin L; Bradford, Miranda C; Friedland-Little, Joshua M; Hong, Borah J; Kemna, Mariska S; Chen, Jonathan M; Law, Yuk M

2018-03-01

PH is a risk factor for GL after HTx. However, traditional parameters are not reliable predictors of risk in children. We hypothesized that DPI (dPAP and DPG) are predictive of GL in pediatric HTx recipients. The UNOS/SRTR database was reviewed to identify pediatric HTx recipients (age <18 years) between 1994 and 2013. Recipients with pretransplant hemodynamic data were grouped by diagnosis (CMP or CHD), and the groups were analyzed separately. Bivariate Cox regression analysis examined the association between hemodynamic variables and GL. DPI showed the strongest association with early GL in recipients with CMP (dPAP: HR = 1.25 [1.09-1.42]; DPG: 1.24 [1.11-1.38]). Among CHD recipients, DPI were associated with early GL in those with preexisting PH (dPAP: HR = 1.16 [1.01-1.33]; DPG: HR = 1.10 [1.00-1.21]). No cutoff values for "high-risk" DPI were identified, but a continuous relationship between higher DPI and risk of early GL was observed. DPI are associated with early GL in select pediatric HTx recipients. Our findings suggest that DPI should be considered as part of routine hemodynamic assessment for pediatric HTx candidates. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Strategic Motives Drive Proposers to Offer Fairly in Ultimatum Games: An fMRI Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Yin-Hua; Chen, Ying-Chun; Kuo, Wen-Jui; Kan, Kamhon; Yang, C C; Yen, Nai-Shing

2017-04-03

The hypothesis of strategic motives postulates that offering fairly in the Ultimatum Game (UG) is to avoid rejection and receive money. In this fMRI study, we used a modified UG to elucidate how proposers reached decisions of offering fairly and to what extent they considered offering selfishly with different stakes. We had proposers choose between a fair and a selfish offer with different degrees of selfishness and stake sizes. Proposers were less likely and spent more time choosing the fair offer over a slightly-selfish offer than a very selfish offer independent of stakes. Such choices evoked greater activation in the dorsal anterior cingulate cortices that typically involve in allocation of cognitive control for cost/benefit decision making. Choosing a fair offer in higher stakes evoked greater activation in the anterior cingulate gyrus (ACCg) and the areas that previously have been implicated in reward and theory of mind. Furthermore, choosing a slightly selfish offer over a fair offer evoked greater activation in the anterior cingulate sulcus, ACCg, ventral tegmental area (or substantia nigra) and anterior insular cortex signalling the higher gain and implying higher rejection risk. In conclusion, our findings favoured the hypothesis that proposers offer fairly based on the strategic motives.

RISK ANALYSIS APPLIED IN OIL EXPLORATION AND PRODUCTION

African Journals Online (AJOL)

ES Obe

aDepartment of Civil Engineering, University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Enugu State, Nigeria. ... The analysis in this work is ... risk analysis, oil field, risk management, projects, investment opportunity. 1. .... own merit but since the company has limited.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of offering free leisure centre memberships to physically inactive members of the public receiving state benefits: a case study.

Science.gov (United States)

Verhoef, Talitha I; Trend, Verena; Kelly, Barry; Robinson, Nigel; Fox, Paul; Morris, Stephen

2016-07-22

We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of the Give-it-a-Go programme, which offers free leisure centre memberships to physically inactive members of the public in a single London Borough receiving state benefits. A decision analytic Markov model was developed to analyse lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) of 1025 people recruited to the intervention versus no intervention. In the intervention group, people were offered 4 months of free membership at a leisure centre. Physical activity levels were assessed at 0 and 4 months using the International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ). Higher levels of physical activity were assumed to decrease the risk of coronary heart disease, stroke and diabetes mellitus type II, as well as improve mental health. Costs were assessed from a National Health Service (NHS) perspective. Uncertainty was assessed using one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. One-hundred fifty nine participants (15.5 %) completed the programme by attending the leisure centre for 4 months. Compared with no intervention, Give it a Go increased costs by £67.25 and QALYs by 0.0033 (equivalent to 1.21 days in full health) per recruited person. The incremental costs per QALY gained were £20,347. The results were highly sensitive to the magnitude of mental health gain due to physical activity and the duration of the effect of the programme (1 year in the base case analysis). When the mental health gain was omitted from the analysis, the incremental cost per QALY gained increased to almost £1.5 million. In the probabilistic sensitivity analysis, the incremental costs per QALY gained were below £20,000 in 39 % of the 5000 simulations. Give it a Go did not significantly increase life-expectancy, but had a positive influence on quality of life due to the mental health gain of physical activity. If the increase in physical activity caused by Give it a Go lasts for more than 1 year, the programme would be cost-effective given a

Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis: A Hypothetical Application to the Waas Region

Science.gov (United States)

Gilroy, Kristin; Mens, Marjolein; Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Jeuken, Ad

2016-04-01

More frequent and intense hydrologic events under climate change are expected to enhance water security and flood risk management challenges worldwide. Traditional planning approaches must be adapted to address climate change and develop solutions with an appropriate level of robustness and flexibility. The Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis (CRIDA) method is a novel planning approach embodying a suite of complementary methods, including decision scaling and adaptation pathways. Decision scaling offers a bottom-up approach to assess risk and tailors the complexity of the analysis to the problem at hand and the available capacity. Through adaptation pathway,s an array of future strategies towards climate robustness are developed, ranging in flexibility and immediacy of investments. Flexible pathways include transfer points to other strategies to ensure that the system can be adapted if future conditions vary from those expected. CRIDA combines these two approaches in a stakeholder driven process which guides decision makers through the planning and decision process, taking into account how the confidence in the available science, the consequences in the system, and the capacity of institutions should influence strategy selection. In this presentation, we will explain the CRIDA method and compare it to existing planning processes, such as the US Army Corps of Engineers Principles and Guidelines as well as Integrated Water Resources Management Planning. Then, we will apply the approach to a hypothetical case study for the Waas Region, a large downstream river basin facing rapid development threatened by increased flood risks. Through the case study, we will demonstrate how a stakeholder driven process can be used to evaluate system robustness to climate change; develop adaptation pathways for multiple objectives and criteria; and illustrate how varying levels of confidence, consequences, and capacity would play a role in the decision making process, specifically

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Cyber Risk Management for Critical Infrastructure: A Risk Analysis Model and Three Case Studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Paté-Cornell, M-Elisabeth; Kuypers, Marshall; Smith, Matthew; Keller, Philip

2018-02-01

Managing cyber security in an organization involves allocating the protection budget across a spectrum of possible options. This requires assessing the benefits and the costs of these options. The risk analyses presented here are statistical when relevant data are available, and system-based for high-consequence events that have not happened yet. This article presents, first, a general probabilistic risk analysis framework for cyber security in an organization to be specified. It then describes three examples of forward-looking analyses motivated by recent cyber attacks. The first one is the statistical analysis of an actual database, extended at the upper end of the loss distribution by a Bayesian analysis of possible, high-consequence attack scenarios that may happen in the future. The second is a systems analysis of cyber risks for a smart, connected electric grid, showing that there is an optimal level of connectivity. The third is an analysis of sequential decisions to upgrade the software of an existing cyber security system or to adopt a new one to stay ahead of adversaries trying to find their way in. The results are distributions of losses to cyber attacks, with and without some considered countermeasures in support of risk management decisions based both on past data and anticipated incidents. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

12 CFR 563g.21 - Filing of copies of offering circulars in certain exempt offerings.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 5 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Filing of copies of offering circulars in certain exempt offerings. 563g.21 Section 563g.21 Banks and Banking OFFICE OF THRIFT SUPERVISION, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY SECURITIES OFFERINGS § 563g.21 Filing of copies of offering circulars in certain...

Cost-effectiveness Analysis of Nutritional Support for the Prevention of Pressure Ulcers in High-Risk Hospitalized Patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Tuffaha, Haitham W; Roberts, Shelley; Chaboyer, Wendy; Gordon, Louisa G; Scuffham, Paul A

2016-06-01

To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of nutritional support compared with standard care in preventing pressure ulcers (PrUs) in high-risk hospitalized patients. An economic model using data from a systematic literature review. A meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials on the efficacy of nutritional support in reducing the incidence of PrUs was conducted. Modeled cohort of hospitalized patients at high risk of developing PrUs and malnutrition simulated during their hospital stay and up to 1 year. Standard care included PrU prevention strategies, such as redistribution surfaces, repositioning, and skin protection strategies, along with standard hospital diet. In addition to the standard care, the intervention group received nutritional support comprising patient education, nutrition goal setting, and the consumption of high-protein supplements. The analysis was from a healthcare payer perspective. Key outcomes of the model included the average costs and quality-adjusted life years. Model results were tested in univariate sensitivity analyses, and decision uncertainty was characterized using a probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Compared with standard care, nutritional support was cost saving at AU $425 per patient and marginally more effective with an average 0.005 quality-adjusted life years gained. The probability of nutritional support being cost-effective was 87%. Nutritional support to prevent PrUs in high-risk hospitalized patients is cost-effective with substantial cost savings predicted. Hospitals should implement the recommendations from the current PrU practice guidelines and offer nutritional support to high-risk patients.

Urban flooding and health risk analysis by use of quantitative microbial risk assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Signe Tanja

D thesis is to identify the limitations and possibilities for optimising microbial risk assessments of urban flooding through more evidence-based solutions, including quantitative microbial data and hydrodynamic water quality models. The focus falls especially on the problem of data needs and the causes......, but also when wading through a flooded area. The results in this thesis have brought microbial risk assessments one step closer to more uniform and repeatable risk analysis by using actual and relevant measured data and hydrodynamic water quality models to estimate the risk from flooding caused...... are expected to increase in the future. To ensure public health during extreme rainfall, solutions are needed, but limited knowledge on microbial water quality, and related health risks, makes it difficult to implement microbial risk analysis as a part of the basis for decision making. The main aim of this Ph...

Failure mode and effect analysis: improving intensive care unit risk management processes.

Science.gov (United States)

Askari, Roohollah; Shafii, Milad; Rafiei, Sima; Abolhassani, Mohammad Sadegh; Salarikhah, Elaheh

2017-04-18

Purpose Failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) is a practical tool to evaluate risks, discover failures in a proactive manner and propose corrective actions to reduce or eliminate potential risks. The purpose of this paper is to apply FMEA technique to examine the hazards associated with the process of service delivery in intensive care unit (ICU) of a tertiary hospital in Yazd, Iran. Design/methodology/approach This was a before-after study conducted between March 2013 and December 2014. By forming a FMEA team, all potential hazards associated with ICU services - their frequency and severity - were identified. Then risk priority number was calculated for each activity as an indicator representing high priority areas that need special attention and resource allocation. Findings Eight failure modes with highest priority scores including endotracheal tube defect, wrong placement of endotracheal tube, EVD interface, aspiration failure during suctioning, chest tube failure, tissue injury and deep vein thrombosis were selected for improvement. Findings affirmed that improvement strategies were generally satisfying and significantly decreased total failures. Practical implications Application of FMEA in ICUs proved to be effective in proactively decreasing the risk of failures and corrected the control measures up to acceptable levels in all eight areas of function. Originality/value Using a prospective risk assessment approach, such as FMEA, could be beneficial in dealing with potential failures through proposing preventive actions in a proactive manner. The method could be used as a tool for healthcare continuous quality improvement so that the method identifies both systemic and human errors, and offers practical advice to deal effectively with them.

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Probabilistic risk analysis in chemical engineering

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schmalz, F.

1991-01-01

In risk analysis in the chemical industry, recognising potential risks is considered more important than assessing their quantitative extent. Even in assessing risks, emphasis is not on the probability involved but on the possible extent. Qualitative assessment has proved valuable here. Probabilistic methods are used in individual cases where the wide implications make it essential to be able to assess the reliability of safety precautions. In this case, assessment therefore centres on the reliability of technical systems and not on the extent of a chemical risk. 7 figs

Method for environmental risk analysis (MIRA) revision 2007

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2007-04-01

OLF's instruction manual for carrying out environmental risk analyses provides a united approach and a common framework for environmental risk assessments. This is based on the best information available. The manual implies standardizations of a series of parameters, input data and partial analyses that are included in the environmental risk analysis. Environmental risk analyses carried out according to the MIRA method will thus be comparable between fields and between companies. In this revision an update of the text in accordance with today's practice for environmental risk analyses and prevailing regulations is emphasized. Moreover, method adjustments for especially protected beach habitats have been introduced, as well as a general method for estimating environmental risk concerning fish. Emphasis has also been put on improving environmental risk analysis' possibilities to contribute to a better management of environmental risk in the companies (ml)

Risk Analysis for Unintentional Slide Deployment During Airline Operations.

Science.gov (United States)

Ayra, Eduardo S; Insua, David Ríos; Castellanos, María Eugenia; Larbi, Lydia

2015-09-01

We present a risk analysis undertaken to mitigate problems in relation to the unintended deployment of slides under normal operations within a commercial airline. This type of incident entails relevant costs for the airline industry. After assessing the likelihood and severity of its consequences, we conclude that such risks need to be managed. We then evaluate the effectiveness of various countermeasures, describing and justifying the chosen ones. We also discuss several issues faced when implementing and communicating the proposed measures, thus fully illustrating the risk analysis process. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

The social values at risk from sea-level rise

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Graham, Sonia; Barnett, Jon; Fincher, Ruth; Hurlimann, Anna; Mortreux, Colette; Waters, Elissa

2013-01-01

Analysis of the risks of sea-level rise favours conventionally measured metrics such as the area of land that may be subsumed, the numbers of properties at risk, and the capital values of assets at risk. Despite this, it is clear that there exist many less material but no less important values at risk from sea-level rise. This paper re-theorises these multifarious social values at risk from sea-level rise, by explaining their diverse nature, and grounding them in the everyday practices of people living in coastal places. It is informed by a review and analysis of research on social values from within the fields of social impact assessment, human geography, psychology, decision analysis, and climate change adaptation. From this we propose that it is the ‘lived values’ of coastal places that are most at risk from sea-level rise. We then offer a framework that groups these lived values into five types: those that are physiological in nature, and those that relate to issues of security, belonging, esteem, and self-actualisation. This framework of lived values at risk from sea-level rise can guide empirical research investigating the social impacts of sea-level rise, as well as the impacts of actions to adapt to sea-level rise. It also offers a basis for identifying the distribution of related social outcomes across populations exposed to sea-level rise or sea-level rise policies

The social values at risk from sea-level rise

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Graham, Sonia, E-mail: sonia.graham@unimelb.edu.au [Department of Resource Management and Geography, The University of Melbourne, 221 Bouverie St., Carlton, Victoria 3053 (Australia); Barnett, Jon, E-mail: jbarn@unimelb.edu.au [Department of Resource Management and Geography, The University of Melbourne, 221 Bouverie St., Carlton, Victoria 3053 (Australia); Fincher, Ruth, E-mail: r.fincher@unimelb.edu.au [Department of Resource Management and Geography, The University of Melbourne, 221 Bouverie St., Carlton, Victoria 3053 (Australia); Hurlimann, Anna, E-mail: anna.hurlimann@unimelb.edu.au [Faculty of Architecture, Building and Planning, The University of Melbourne, Architecture and Planning Building, Parkville, Victoria 3010 (Australia); Mortreux, Colette, E-mail: colettem@unimelb.edu.au [Department of Resource Management and Geography, The University of Melbourne, 221 Bouverie St., Carlton, Victoria 3053 (Australia); Waters, Elissa, E-mail: elissa.waters@unimelb.edu.au [Department of Resource Management and Geography, The University of Melbourne, 221 Bouverie St., Carlton, Victoria 3053 (Australia)

2013-07-15

Analysis of the risks of sea-level rise favours conventionally measured metrics such as the area of land that may be subsumed, the numbers of properties at risk, and the capital values of assets at risk. Despite this, it is clear that there exist many less material but no less important values at risk from sea-level rise. This paper re-theorises these multifarious social values at risk from sea-level rise, by explaining their diverse nature, and grounding them in the everyday practices of people living in coastal places. It is informed by a review and analysis of research on social values from within the fields of social impact assessment, human geography, psychology, decision analysis, and climate change adaptation. From this we propose that it is the ‘lived values’ of coastal places that are most at risk from sea-level rise. We then offer a framework that groups these lived values into five types: those that are physiological in nature, and those that relate to issues of security, belonging, esteem, and self-actualisation. This framework of lived values at risk from sea-level rise can guide empirical research investigating the social impacts of sea-level rise, as well as the impacts of actions to adapt to sea-level rise. It also offers a basis for identifying the distribution of related social outcomes across populations exposed to sea-level rise or sea-level rise policies.

Mare Risk Analysis monitor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fuente Prieto, I.; Alonso, P.; Carretero Fernandino, J. A.

2000-01-01

The Nuclear Safety Council's requirement that Spanish power plants comply with the requirements of the Maintenance Rule associated with plant risk assessment during power operation, arising from the partial unavailability of systems due to the maintenance activities, has led to need for additional tools to facilitate compliance with said requirements. While the impact on risk produced by individual equipment unavailabilities can easily be evaluated, either qualitatively or quantitatively, the process becomes more complicated when un programmed unavailabilities simultaneously occur in various systems, making it necessary to evaluate their functional impact. It is especially complex in the case of support systems that can affect the functionality of multiple systems. In view of the above, a computer application has been developed that is capable of providing the operator with quick answers based on the specific plant model in order to allow fast risk assessment using the information compiled as part of the Probabilistic Safety Analysis. The paper describes the most important characteristics of this application and the basic design requirements of the MARE Risk Monitor. (Author)

GEOSPATIAL ANALYSIS OF URBAN LAND USE PATTERN ANALYSIS FOR HEMORRHAGIC FEVER RISK – A REVIEW

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. N. Izzah

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Human modification of the natural environment continues to create habitats in which vectors of a wide variety of human and animal pathogens (such as Plasmodium, Aedes aegypti, Arenavirus etc. thrive if unabated with an enormous potential to negatively affect public health. Typical examples of these modifications include impoundments, dams, irrigation systems, landfills and so on that provide enabled environment for the transmission of Hemorrhagic fever such as malaria, dengue, avian flu, Lassa fever etc. Furthermore, contemporary urban dwelling pattern appears to be associated with the prevalence of Hemorrhagic diseases in recent years. These observations are not peculiar to the developing world, as urban expansion also contributes significantly to mosquito and other vectors habitats. This habitats offer breeding ground to some vector virus populations. The key to disease control is developing an understanding of the contribution of human landscape modification to vector-borne pathogen transmission and how a balance may be achieved between human development, public health, and responsible urban land use. A comprehensive review of urban land use Pattern Analysis for Hemorrhagic fever risk has been conducted in this paper. The study found that most of the available literatures dwell more on the impact of urban land use on malaria and dengue fevers; however, studies are yet to be found discussing the implications of urban land use on the risk of Ebola, Lassa and other non-mosquito borne VHFs. A relational model for investigating the influence of urban land use change pattern on the risk of Hemorrhagic fever has been proposed in this study.

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Bayesian-network-based safety risk analysis in construction projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Limao; Wu, Xianguo; Skibniewski, Miroslaw J.; Zhong, Jingbing; Lu, Yujie

2014-01-01

This paper presents a systemic decision support approach for safety risk analysis under uncertainty in tunnel construction. Fuzzy Bayesian Networks (FBN) is used to investigate causal relationships between tunnel-induced damage and its influential variables based upon the risk/hazard mechanism analysis. Aiming to overcome limitations on the current probability estimation, an expert confidence indicator is proposed to ensure the reliability of the surveyed data for fuzzy probability assessment of basic risk factors. A detailed fuzzy-based inference procedure is developed, which has a capacity of implementing deductive reasoning, sensitivity analysis and abductive reasoning. The “3σ criterion” is adopted to calculate the characteristic values of a triangular fuzzy number in the probability fuzzification process, and the α-weighted valuation method is adopted for defuzzification. The construction safety analysis progress is extended to the entire life cycle of risk-prone events, including the pre-accident, during-construction continuous and post-accident control. A typical hazard concerning the tunnel leakage in the construction of Wuhan Yangtze Metro Tunnel in China is presented as a case study, in order to verify the applicability of the proposed approach. The results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed approach and its application potential. A comparison of advantages and disadvantages between FBN and fuzzy fault tree analysis (FFTA) as risk analysis tools is also conducted. The proposed approach can be used to provide guidelines for safety analysis and management in construction projects, and thus increase the likelihood of a successful project in a complex environment. - Highlights: • A systemic Bayesian network based approach for safety risk analysis is developed. • An expert confidence indicator for probability fuzzification is proposed. • Safety risk analysis progress is extended to entire life cycle of risk-prone events. • A typical

On the validation of risk analysis-A commentary

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rosqvist, Tony

2010-01-01

Aven and Heide (2009) [1] provided interesting views on the reliability and validation of risk analysis. The four validation criteria presented are contrasted with modelling features related to the relative frequency-based and Bayesian approaches to risk analysis. In this commentary I would like to bring forth some issues on validation that partly confirm and partly suggest changes in the interpretation of the introduced validation criteria-especially, in the context of low probability-high consequence systems. The mental model of an expert in assessing probabilities is argued to be a key notion in understanding the validation of a risk analysis.

Quantitative risk assessment using the capacity-demand analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morgenroth, M.; Donnelly, C.R.; Westermann, G.D.; Huang, J.H.S.; Lam, T.M.

1999-01-01

The hydroelectric industry's recognition of the importance of avoiding unexpected failure, or forced outages, led to the development of probabilistic, or risk-based, methods in order to attempt to quantify exposures. Traditionally, such analysis has been carried out by qualitative assessments, relying on experience and sound engineering judgment to determine the optimum time to maintain, repair or replace a part or system. Depending on the nature of the problem, however, and the level of experience of those included in the decision making process, it is difficult to find a balance between acting proactively and accepting some amount of risk. The development of a practical means for establishing the probability of failure of any part or system, based on the determination of the statistical distribution of engineering properties such as acting stresses, is discussed. The capacity-demand analysis methodology, coupled with probablistic, risk-based analysis, permits all the factors associated with a decision to rehabilitate or replace a part, including the risks associated with the timing of the decision, to be assessed in a transparent and defendable manner. The methodology does not eliminate judgment altogether, but does move it from the level of estimating the risk of failure to the lower level of estimating variability in material properties, uncertainty in loading, and the uncertainties inherent in any engineering analysis. The method was successfully used in 1998 to carry out a comprehensive, economic risk analysis for the entire water conveyance system of a 90 year old hydropower station. The analysis included a number of diverse parts ranging from rock slopes and aging steel and concrete conduits, and the method allowed a rational assessment of the risks associated with reach of these varied parts to be determined, permitting the essential remedial works to be prioritized. 14 refs., 4 figs

System risk evolution analysis and risk critical event identification based on event sequence diagram

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Luo, Pengcheng; Hu, Yang

2013-01-01

During system operation, the environmental, operational and usage conditions are time-varying, which causes the fluctuations of the system state variables (SSVs). These fluctuations change the accidents’ probabilities and then result in the system risk evolution (SRE). This inherent relation makes it feasible to realize risk control by monitoring the SSVs in real time, herein, the quantitative analysis of SRE is essential. Besides, some events in the process of SRE are critical to system risk, because they act like the “demarcative points” of safety and accident, and this characteristic makes each of them a key point of risk control. Therefore, analysis of SRE and identification of risk critical events (RCEs) are remarkably meaningful to ensure the system to operate safely. In this context, an event sequence diagram (ESD) based method of SRE analysis and the related Monte Carlo solution are presented; RCE and risk sensitive variable (RSV) are defined, and the corresponding identification methods are also proposed. Finally, the proposed approaches are exemplified with an accident scenario of an aircraft getting into the icing region

Flood risk analysis for flood control and sediment transportation in sandy regions: A case study in the Loess Plateau, China

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Aijun; Chang, Jianxia; Wang, Yimin; Huang, Qiang; Zhou, Shuai

2018-05-01

Traditional flood risk analysis focuses on the probability of flood events exceeding the design flood of downstream hydraulic structures while neglecting the influence of sedimentation in river channels on regional flood control systems. This work advances traditional flood risk analysis by proposing a univariate and copula-based bivariate hydrological risk framework which incorporates both flood control and sediment transport. In developing the framework, the conditional probabilities of different flood events under various extreme precipitation scenarios are estimated by exploiting the copula-based model. Moreover, a Monte Carlo-based algorithm is designed to quantify the sampling uncertainty associated with univariate and bivariate hydrological risk analyses. Two catchments located on the Loess plateau are selected as study regions: the upper catchments of the Xianyang and Huaxian stations (denoted as UCX and UCH, respectively). The univariate and bivariate return periods, risk and reliability in the context of uncertainty for the purposes of flood control and sediment transport are assessed for the study regions. The results indicate that sedimentation triggers higher risks of damaging the safety of local flood control systems compared with the event that AMF exceeds the design flood of downstream hydraulic structures in the UCX and UCH. Moreover, there is considerable sampling uncertainty affecting the univariate and bivariate hydrologic risk evaluation, which greatly challenges measures of future flood mitigation. In addition, results also confirm that the developed framework can estimate conditional probabilities associated with different flood events under various extreme precipitation scenarios aiming for flood control and sediment transport. The proposed hydrological risk framework offers a promising technical reference for flood risk analysis in sandy regions worldwide.

Instability risk analysis and risk assessment system establishment of underground storage caverns in bedded salt rock

Science.gov (United States)

Jing, Wenjun; Zhao, Yan

2018-02-01

Stability is an important part of geotechnical engineering research. The operating experiences of underground storage caverns in salt rock all around the world show that the stability of the caverns is the key problem of safe operation. Currently, the combination of theoretical analysis and numerical simulation are the mainly adopts method of reserve stability analysis. This paper introduces the concept of risk into the stability analysis of underground geotechnical structure, and studies the instability of underground storage cavern in salt rock from the perspective of risk analysis. Firstly, the definition and classification of cavern instability risk is proposed, and the damage mechanism is analyzed from the mechanical angle. Then the main stability evaluating indicators of cavern instability risk are proposed, and an evaluation method of cavern instability risk is put forward. Finally, the established cavern instability risk assessment system is applied to the analysis and prediction of cavern instability risk after 30 years of operation in a proposed storage cavern group in the Huai’an salt mine. This research can provide a useful theoretical base for the safe operation and management of underground storage caverns in salt rock.

Analysis of risk factors and risk assessment for ischemic stroke recurrence

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiu-ying LONG

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Objective To screen the risk factors for recurrence of ischemic stroke and to assess the risk of recurrence. Methods Essen Stroke Risk Score (ESRS was used to evaluate the risk of recurrence in 176 patients with ischemic stroke (96 cases of first onset and 80 cases of recurrence. Univariate and multivariate stepwise Logistic regression analysis was used to screen risk factors for recurrence of ischemic stroke.  Results There were significant differences between first onset group and recurrence group on age, the proportion of > 75 years old, hypertension, diabetes, coronary heart disease, peripheral angiopathy, transient ischemic attack (TIA or ischemic stroke, drinking and ESRS score (P < 0.05, for all. First onset group included one case of ESRS 0 (1.04%, 8 cases of 1 (8.33%, 39 cases of 2 (40.63%, 44 cases of 3 (45.83%, 4 cases of 4 (4.17%. Recurrence group included 2 cases of ESRS 3 (2.50%, 20 cases of 4 (25% , 37 cases of 5 (46.25% , 18 cases of 6 (22.50% , 3 cases of 7 (3.75% . There was significant difference between 2 groups (Z = -11.376, P = 0.000. Logistic regression analysis showed ESRS > 3 score was independent risk factor for recurrence of ischemic stroke (OR = 31.324, 95%CI: 3.934-249.430; P = 0.001.  Conclusions ESRS > 3 score is the independent risk factor for recurrence of ischemic stroke. It is important to strengthen risk assessment of recurrence of ischemic stroke. To screen and control risk factors is the key to secondary prevention of ischemic stroke. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1672-6731.2016.07.011

Risk analysis of industrial plants operation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hubert, Philippe

1989-12-01

This study examines the possibilities of systematic technology risk analysis in view of territorial management (city, urban community, region), including chronic and accidental risks. The objective was to relate this evaluation with those done for permanent water and air pollution. Risk management for pollution are done for a long time. A number of studies were done in urban communities and regions both for air and water pollution. The second objective is related to management of industrial risks: nuclear, petrochemical, transport of hazardous material, pipelines, etc. At the beginning, three possibilities of effects are taken into account: human health, economic aspect and water, and possibilities of evaluation are identified. Elements of risk identification are presented for quantification of results [fr

A ubiquitous method for street scale spatial data collection and analysis in challenging urban environments: mapping health risks using spatial video in Haiti.

Science.gov (United States)

Curtis, Andrew; Blackburn, Jason K; Widmer, Jocelyn M; Morris, J Glenn

2013-04-15

Fine-scale and longitudinal geospatial analysis of health risks in challenging urban areas is often limited by the lack of other spatial layers even if case data are available. Underlying population counts, residential context, and associated causative factors such as standing water or trash locations are often missing unless collected through logistically difficult, and often expensive, surveys. The lack of spatial context also hinders the interpretation of results and designing intervention strategies structured around analytical insights. This paper offers a ubiquitous spatial data collection approach using a spatial video that can be used to improve analysis and involve participatory collaborations. A case study will be used to illustrate this approach with three health risks mapped at the street scale for a coastal community in Haiti. Spatial video was used to collect street and building scale information, including standing water, trash accumulation, presence of dogs, cohort specific population characteristics, and other cultural phenomena. These data were digitized into Google Earth and then coded and analyzed in a GIS using kernel density and spatial filtering approaches. The concentrations of these risks around area schools which are sometimes sources of diarrheal disease infection because of the high concentration of children and variable sanitary practices will show the utility of the method. In addition schools offer potential locations for cholera education interventions. Previously unavailable fine scale health risk data vary in concentration across the town, with some schools being proximate to greater concentrations of the mapped risks. The spatial video is also used to validate coded data and location specific risks within these "hotspots". Spatial video is a tool that can be used in any environment to improve local area health analysis and intervention. The process is rapid and can be repeated in study sites through time to track spatio

[Survival analysis with competing risks: estimating failure probability].

Science.gov (United States)

Llorca, Javier; Delgado-Rodríguez, Miguel

2004-01-01

To show the impact of competing risks of death on survival analysis. We provide an example of survival time without chronic rejection after heart transplantation, where death before rejection acts as a competing risk. Using a computer simulation, we compare the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the multiple decrement model. The Kaplan-Meier method overestimated the probability of rejection. Next, we illustrate the use of the multiple decrement model to analyze secondary end points (in our example: death after rejection). Finally, we discuss Kaplan-Meier assumptions and why they fail in the presence of competing risks. Survival analysis should be adjusted for competing risks of death to avoid overestimation of the risk of rejection produced with the Kaplan-Meier method.

Quantitative risk analysis of a space shuttle subsystem

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frank, M.V.

1989-01-01

This paper reports that in an attempt to investigate methods for risk management other than qualitative analysis techniques, NASA has funded pilot study quantitative risk analyses for space shuttle subsystems. The authors performed one such study of two shuttle subsystems with McDonnell Douglas Astronautics Company. The subsystems were the auxiliary power units (APU) on the orbiter, and the hydraulic power units on the solid rocket booster. The technology and results of the APU study are presented in this paper. Drawing from a rich in-flight database as well as from a wealth of tests and analyses, the study quantitatively assessed the risk of APU-initiated scenarios on the shuttle during all phases of a flight mission. Damage states of interest were loss of crew/vehicle, aborted mission, and launch scrub. A quantitative risk analysis approach to deciding on important items for risk management was contrasted with the current NASA failure mode and effects analysis/critical item list approach

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Modeling issues in nuclear plant fire risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Siu, N.

1989-01-01

This paper discusses various issues associated with current models for analyzing the risk due to fires in nuclear power plants. Particular emphasis is placed on the fire growth and suppression models, these being unique to the fire portion of the overall risk analysis. Potentially significant modeling improvements are identified; also discussed are a variety of modeling issues where improvements will help the credibility of the analysis, without necessarily changing the computed risk significantly. The mechanistic modeling of fire initiation is identified as a particularly promising improvement for reducing the uncertainties in the predicted risk. 17 refs., 5 figs. 2 tabs

Flood risk analysis model in the village of St. George/Danube Delta

Science.gov (United States)

Armas, I.; Dumitrascu, S.; Nistoran, D.

2009-04-01

the Danube Delta. The study area is situated at the mouth of the St. George river branch, which suffered a series of interventions resulting with the shortening with 31 km (period 1984-1988). As a direct result, the medium speed of the water grew along with the both liquid and solid flows. In fact, this is only an example of the human activity that took place in the Danube Delta starting with the second half of the last century that influenced the hydrological system for a better use of the natural resources offered by the delta. The study is structured in two stages: the analysis of the hydrological hazard together with the simulation of a series of scenarios concerning floods at various flows and the risk analysis, expressed in the shape of the calculus of the material damage. In the study of the hazard, the methodology was based on the analysis of water depth and velocity maps, done in various flow scenarios, to which were added correlations between flood risk maps with satellite pictures, cadastral plans and field data by using GIS functions. In addition, the field investigations conducted in September 2008 focused on collecting the data necessary in the assessment of the buildings. The observations that synthesize the features of each construction included in the analysis were also stored in ArcGis in the shape of a table of attributes. This information reveals the indicators used in the analysis of the vulnerability of the residences: number of floors, height, construction type, infrastructure and price per property. The analysis revealed an increased degree of the area visibility, pointing out not only certain sectors affected by floods, but also the problems that occurred at the more detailed level of the residences. In addition, the cartographic material plays also an important part in the development of a proper public awareness strategy.

Comparative risk analysis for the Rocky Flats Plant integrated project planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jones, M.E.; Shain, D.I.

1994-01-01

The Rocky Flats Plant is developing, with active stakeholder participation, a comprehensive planning strategy that will support transition of the Rocky Flats Plant from a nuclear weapons production facility to site cleanup and final disposition. Consideration of the interrelated nature of sitewide problems, such as material movement and disposition, facility and land use endstates, costs, relative risks to workers and the public, and waste disposition are all needed. Comparative Risk Analysis employs both incremental risk and cumulative risk evaluations to compare risks from postulated options or endstates and is an analytical tool for the Rocky Flats Plant Integrated Project Planning which can assist a decision-maker in evaluating relative risks among proposed remediation activity. However, risks from all of the remediation activities, decontamination and decommissioning activities, and normal ongoing operations are imposed upon the Rocky Flats workers, the surrounding public, and the environment. Comparative Risk Analysis will provide risk information, both human health and ecological, to aid in reducing unnecessary resource and monetary expenditures by focusing these resources on the largest risks first. Comparative Risk Analysis has been developed to aggregate various incremental risk estimates to develop a site cumulative risk estimate. The Comparative Risk Analysis methodology Group, consisting of community stakeholders, was established. Early stakeholder involvement in the risk analysis methodology development provides an opportunity for stakeholders to influence the risk information delivered to a decision-maker. This paper discusses development of the Comparative Risk Analysis methodology, stakeholder participation and lessons learned from these challenges

Individual Tariffs for Mobile Services: Analysis of Operator Business and Risk Consequences

NARCIS (Netherlands)

H. Chen (Hong); L-F. Pau (Louis-François)

2007-01-01

textabstractA design approach is offered for individual tariffs for mass customized mobile service products, whereby operators can determine their contract acceptance rules to guarantee with a set probability their minimum profit and risk levels. It uses realistic improvements to earlier reported

Factors Associated With Forensic Nurses Offering HIV nPEP Status Post Sexual Assault.

Science.gov (United States)

Draughon, Jessica E; Hauda, William E; Price, Bonnie; Rotolo, Sue; Austin, Kim Wieczorek; Sheridan, Daniel J

2015-09-01

Nonoccupational, postexposure prophylaxis (nPEP) for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is offered inconsistently to patients who have been sexually assaulted. This may be due to Forensic Nurse Examiner (FNE) programs utilizing diverse nPEP protocols and HIV risk assessment algorithms. This study examines factors associated with FNEs offering nPEP to patients following sexual assault at two FNE programs in urban settings. Offering nPEP is mostly driven by site-specific protocol. At Site 1, in addition to open anal or open genital wounds, the presence of injury to the head or face was associated with FNEs offering nPEP (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 64.15, 95% confidence interval [CI] = [2.12, 1942.37]). At Site 2, patients assaulted by someone of Other race/ethnicity (non-White, non-African American) were 86% less likely to be offered nPEP (AOR 0.14, 95% CI = [.03, .72]) than patients assaulted by Whites. In addition to following site-specific protocols, future research should further explore the mechanisms influencing clinician decision making. © The Author(s) 2014.

Risk analysis as a decision tool

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yadigaroglu, G.; Chakraborty, S.

1985-01-01

From 1983 - 1985 a lecture series entitled ''Risk-benefit analysis'' was held at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH), Zurich, in cooperation with the Central Department for the Safety of Nuclear Installations of the Swiss Federal Agency of Energy Economy. In that setting the value of risk-oriented evaluation models as a decision tool in safety questions was discussed on a broad basis. Experts of international reputation from the Federal Republic of Germany, France, Canada, the United States and Switzerland have contributed to report in this joint volume on the uses of such models. Following an introductory synopsis on risk analysis and risk assessment the book deals with practical examples in the fields of medicine, nuclear power, chemistry, transport and civil engineering. Particular attention is paid to the dialogue between analysts and decision makers taking into account the economic-technical aspects and social values. The recent chemical disaster in the Indian city of Bhopal again signals the necessity of such analyses. All the lectures were recorded individually. (orig./HP) [de

48 CFR 12.205 - Offers.

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2010-10-01

... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Offers. 12.205 Section 12... ACQUISITION OF COMMERCIAL ITEMS Special Requirements for the Acquisition of Commercial Items 12.205 Offers. (a) Where technical information is necessary for evaluation of offers, agencies should, as part of market...

A risk-based approach to setting priorities in protecting bridges against terrorist attacks.

Science.gov (United States)

Leung, Maria; Lambert, James H; Mosenthal, Alexander

2004-08-01

This article presents an approach to the problem of terrorism risk assessment and management by adapting the framework of the risk filtering, ranking, and management method. The assessment is conducted at two levels: (1) the system level, and (2) the asset-specific level. The system-level risk assessment attempts to identify and prioritize critical infrastructures from an inventory of system assets. The definition of critical infrastructures offered by Presidential Decision Directive 63 was used to determine the set of attributes to identify critical assets--categorized according to national, regional, and local impact. An example application is demonstrated using information from the Federal Highway Administration National Bridge Inventory for the State of Virginia. Conversely, the asset-specific risk assessment performs an in-depth analysis of the threats and vulnerabilities of a specific critical infrastructure. An illustration is presented to offer some insights in risk scenario identification and prioritization, multiobjective evaluation of management options, and extreme-event analysis for critical infrastructure protection.

Analysis and optimisation of calcium content in menus and dairy offer in Croatian kindergartens

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ivana Rumora

2009-09-01

Full Text Available The importance of healthy diet from the earliest age as well as its influence on human health is indisputable. Unbalanced diet in childhood can, along with unhealthy lifestyle (stress, smoking, physical inactivity, cause a number of diseases at a later age. Two week menus in 26 kindergartens from continental and coastal Croatia have been analysed, taking into consideration the type of kindergarten (public, private, or religious. The aim of this research is to determine the quality of the offer regarding the intake of milk and dairy products, which, regarding their bioavailability, represent a major source of calcium, an essential nutrient in the intensive growth phase of children and young people. Using basic statistics, significant differences were not determined neither in the regional offer of milk and dairy products in the different types of kindergartens nor in the content of calcium and phosphorus. Milk and dairy products were adequately represented in the weekly offer in both regions under observation, and the average offer contained 9.7±1.5 servings. Average content of calcium in daily menues is 714.5±235.9 mg, which is in agreement with dietary reference intake recommendations (300-800 mg and Croatian recommendations (400-700 mg. Use of fuzzy logic in creating new daily menus, by combining the existing offers enabled significant enlargement of the set of nutritionally acceptable menus as well as a greater diversity of meals.

Network theory-based analysis of risk interactions in large engineering projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fang, Chao; Marle, Franck; Zio, Enrico; Bocquet, Jean-Claude

2012-01-01

This paper presents an approach based on network theory to deal with risk interactions in large engineering projects. Indeed, such projects are exposed to numerous and interdependent risks of various nature, which makes their management more difficult. In this paper, a topological analysis based on network theory is presented, which aims at identifying key elements in the structure of interrelated risks potentially affecting a large engineering project. This analysis serves as a powerful complement to classical project risk analysis. Its originality lies in the application of some network theory indicators to the project risk management field. The construction of the risk network requires the involvement of the project manager and other team members assigned to the risk management process. Its interpretation improves their understanding of risks and their potential interactions. The outcomes of the analysis provide a support for decision-making regarding project risk management. An example of application to a real large engineering project is presented. The conclusion is that some new insights can be found about risks, about their interactions and about the global potential behavior of the project. - Highlights: ► The method addresses the modeling of complexity in project risk analysis. ► Network theory indicators enable other risks than classical criticality analysis to be highlighted. ► This topological analysis improves project manager's understanding of risks and risk interactions. ► This helps project manager to make decisions considering the position in the risk network. ► An application to a real tramway implementation project in a city is provided.

Accounting for risk conflicts in Scottish salmon farming

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Georgakopoulos, G.; Thomson, I.; Kaldis, P.

2008-01-01

Purpose: To offer a theoretical analysis, inspired by contemporary research into risk, of the social and environmental accounting processes observed in an empirical study on Scottish salmon farming. Methodology / Approach: This paper used a Grounded Theory approach. Empirical evidence was collected

Active offer of health services in French in Ontario: Analysis of reorganization and management strategies of health care organizations.

Science.gov (United States)

Farmanova, Elina; Bonneville, Luc; Bouchard, Louise

2018-01-01

The availability of health services in French is not only weak but also inexistent in some regions in Canada. As a result, estimated 78% of more than a million of Francophones living in a minority situation in Canada experience difficulties accessing health care in French. To promote the delivery of health services in French, publicly funded organizations are encouraged to take measures to ensure that French-language services are clearly visible, available, easily accessible, and equivalent to the quality of services offered in English. This study examines the reorganization and management strategies taken by health care organizations in Ontario that provide health services in French. Review and analysis of designation plans of a sample of health care organizations. Few health care organizations providing services in French have concrete strategies to guarantee availability, visibility, and accessibility of French-language services. Implementation of the active offer of French-language services is likely to be difficult and slow. The Ontario government must strengthen collaboration with health care organizations, Francophone communities, and other key actors participating in the designation process to help health care organizations build capacities for the effective offer of French-language services. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Banque cantonale de Genève (BCGE) The BCGE Business partner programme devised for members of the CERN Staff Association offers personalized banking solutions with preferential conditions. The advantages are linked to salary accounts (free account keeping, internet banking, free Maestro and credit cards, etc.), mortgage lending, retirement planning, investment, credit, etc. The details of the programme and the preferential conditions are available on our website: http://association.web.cern.ch/association/en/OtherActivities/BCGE.html.  

Risk analysis methodologies for the transportation of radioactive materials

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Geffen, C.A.

1983-05-01

Different methodologies have evolved for consideration of each of the many steps required in performing a transportation risk analysis. Although there are techniques that attempt to consider the entire scope of the analysis in depth, most applications of risk assessment to the transportation of nuclear fuel cycle materials develop specific methodologies for only one or two parts of the analysis. The remaining steps are simplified for the analyst by narrowing the scope of the effort (such as evaluating risks for only one material, or a particular set of accident scenarios, or movement over a specific route); performing a qualitative rather than a quantitative analysis (probabilities may be simply ranked as high, medium or low, for instance); or assuming some generic, conservative conditions for potential release fractions and consequences. This paper presents a discussion of the history and present state-of-the-art of transportation risk analysis methodologies. Many reports in this area were reviewed as background for this presentation. The literature review, while not exhaustive, did result in a complete representation of the major methods used today in transportation risk analysis. These methodologies primarily include the use of severity categories based on historical accident data, the analysis of specifically assumed accident sequences for the transportation activity of interest, and the use of fault or event tree analysis. Although the focus of this work has generally been on potential impacts to public groups, some effort has been expended in the estimation of risks to occupational groups in transportation activities

Risk analysis of sterile production plants: a new and simple, workable approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Gapp, Guenther; Holzknecht, Peter

2011-01-01

A sterile active ingredient plant and a sterile finished dosage filling plant both comprise very complex production processes and systems. The sterility of the final product cannot be assured solely by sterility testing, in-process controls, environmental monitoring of cleanrooms, and media fill validations. Based on more than 15 years experience, 4 years ago the authors created a new but very simple approach to the risk analysis of sterile plants. This approach is not a failure mode and effects analysis and therefore differs from the PDA Technical Report 44 Quality Risk Management for Aseptic Processes of 2008. The principle involves specific questions, which have been defined in the risk analysis questionnaire in advance, to be answered by an expert team. If the questionnaire item is dealt with appropriately, the answer is assigned a low-risk number (1) and if very weak or deficient it gets a high-risk number (5). In addition to the numbers, colors from green (not problematic) through orange to red (very problematic) are attributed to make the results more striking. Because the individual units of each production plant have a defined and different impact on the overall sterility of the final product, different risk emphasis factors have to be taken into account (impact factor 1, 3, or 5). In a well run cleanroom, the cleanroom operators have a lower impact than other units with regard to the contamination risk. The resulting number of the analyzed production plant and the diagram of the assessment subsequently offers very important and valuable information about a) the risk for microbiological contamination (sterility/endotoxins) of the product, and b) the compliance status of the production plant and the risk of failing lots, as well as probable observations of upcoming regulatory agency audits. Both items above are highly important for the safety of the patient. It is also an ideal tool to identify deficient or weak systems requiring improvement and upgrade

Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Dezfuli, Homayoon; Kelly, Dana; Smith, Curtis; Vedros, Kurt; Galyean, William

2009-01-01

This document, Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis, is intended to provide guidelines for the collection and evaluation of risk and reliability-related data. It is aimed at scientists and engineers familiar with risk and reliability methods and provides a hands-on approach to the investigation and application of a variety of risk and reliability data assessment methods, tools, and techniques. This document provides both: A broad perspective on data analysis collection and evaluation issues. A narrow focus on the methods to implement a comprehensive information repository. The topics addressed herein cover the fundamentals of how data and information are to be used in risk and reliability analysis models and their potential role in decision making. Understanding these topics is essential to attaining a risk informed decision making environment that is being sought by NASA requirements and procedures such as 8000.4 (Agency Risk Management Procedural Requirements), NPR 8705.05 (Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures for NASA Programs and Projects), and the System Safety requirements of NPR 8715.3 (NASA General Safety Program Requirements).

Advanced uncertainty modelling for container port risk analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Alyami, Hani; Yang, Zaili; Riahi, Ramin; Bonsall, Stephen; Wang, Jin

2016-08-13

Globalization has led to a rapid increase of container movements in seaports. Risks in seaports need to be appropriately addressed to ensure economic wealth, operational efficiency, and personnel safety. As a result, the safety performance of a Container Terminal Operational System (CTOS) plays a growing role in improving the efficiency of international trade. This paper proposes a novel method to facilitate the application of Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) in assessing the safety performance of CTOS. The new approach is developed through incorporating a Fuzzy Rule-Based Bayesian Network (FRBN) with Evidential Reasoning (ER) in a complementary manner. The former provides a realistic and flexible method to describe input failure information for risk estimates of individual hazardous events (HEs) at the bottom level of a risk analysis hierarchy. The latter is used to aggregate HEs safety estimates collectively, allowing dynamic risk-based decision support in CTOS from a systematic perspective. The novel feature of the proposed method, compared to those in traditional port risk analysis lies in a dynamic model capable of dealing with continually changing operational conditions in ports. More importantly, a new sensitivity analysis method is developed and carried out to rank the HEs by taking into account their specific risk estimations (locally) and their Risk Influence (RI) to a port's safety system (globally). Due to its generality, the new approach can be tailored for a wide range of applications in different safety and reliability engineering and management systems, particularly when real time risk ranking is required to measure, predict, and improve the associated system safety performance. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Offering induction of labor for 22-week premature rupture of membranes: a survey of obstetricians.

Science.gov (United States)

McKenzie, F; Tucker Edmonds, B

2015-08-01

To describe obstetricians' induction counseling practices for 22-week preterm premature rupture of membranes (PPROM) and identify provider characteristics associated with offering induction. Surveyed 295 obstetricians on their likelihood (0-10) of offering induction for periviable PPROM across 10 vignettes. Twenty-two-week vignettes were analyzed, stratified by parental resuscitation preference. Bivariate analyses identified physician characteristics associated with reported likelihood ratings. Obstetricians (N=205) were not likely to offer induction. Median ratings by preference were as follows: resuscitation 1.0, uncertain 1.0 and comfort care 3.0. Only 41% of obstetricians were likely to offer induction to patients desiring comfort care. In addition, several provider-level factors, including practice region, parenting status and years in practice, were significantly associated with offering induction. Obstetricians do not readily offer induction when counseling patients with 22-week ruptured membranes, even when patients prefer palliation. This may place women at risk for infectious complications without accruing a neonatal benefit from prolonged latency.

Multivariate survival analysis and competing risks

CERN Document Server

Crowder, Martin J

2012-01-01

Multivariate Survival Analysis and Competing Risks introduces univariate survival analysis and extends it to the multivariate case. It covers competing risks and counting processes and provides many real-world examples, exercises, and R code. The text discusses survival data, survival distributions, frailty models, parametric methods, multivariate data and distributions, copulas, continuous failure, parametric likelihood inference, and non- and semi-parametric methods. There are many books covering survival analysis, but very few that cover the multivariate case in any depth. Written for a graduate-level audience in statistics/biostatistics, this book includes practical exercises and R code for the examples. The author is renowned for his clear writing style, and this book continues that trend. It is an excellent reference for graduate students and researchers looking for grounding in this burgeoning field of research.

Communicating Zika Risk: Using Metaphor to Increase Perceived Risk Susceptibility.

Science.gov (United States)

Lu, Hang; Schuldt, Jonathon P

2018-02-27

Effectively communicating the risks associated with emerging zoonotic diseases remains an important challenge. Drawing on research into the psychological effects of metaphoric framing, we explore the conditions under which exposure to the "nation as a body" metaphor influences perceived risk susceptibility, behavioral intentions, and policy support in the context of Zika virus. In a between-subjects experiment, 354 U.S. adults were randomly assigned to one of four experimental conditions as part of a 2 (severity message: high vs. low) × 2 (U.S. framing: metaphoric vs. literal) design. Results revealed an interaction effect such that metaphoric (vs. literal) framing increased perceived risk susceptibility in the high-severity condition only. Further analyses revealed that perceived risk susceptibility and negative affect mediated the path between the two-way interaction and policy support and behavioral intentions regarding Zika prevention. Overall, these findings complement prior work on the influence of metaphoric framing on risk perceptions, while offering practical insights for risk communicators seeking to communicate about Zika and other zoonotic diseases. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

Flood risk analysis procedure for nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wagner, D.P.

1982-01-01

This paper describes a methodology and procedure for determining the impact of floods on nuclear power plant risk. The procedures are based on techniques of fault tree and event tree analysis and use the logic of these techniques to determine the effects of a flood on system failure probability and accident sequence occurrence frequency. The methodology can be applied independently or as an add-on analysis for an existing risk assessment. Each stage of the analysis yields useful results such as the critical flood level, failure flood level, and the flood's contribution to accident sequence occurrence frequency. The results of applications show the effects of floods on the risk from nuclear power plants analyzed in the Reactor Safety Study

48 CFR 225.503 - Group offers.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 3 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Group offers. 225.503... OF DEFENSE SOCIOECONOMIC PROGRAMS FOREIGN ACQUISITION Evaluating Foreign Offers-Supply Contracts 225.503 Group offers. Evaluate group offers in accordance with FAR 25.503, but apply the evaluation...

Factors associated with a clinician's offer of screening HIV-positive patients for sexually transmitted infections, including syphilis.

Science.gov (United States)

Heller, R; Fernando, I; MacDougall, M

2011-06-01

This retrospective study assessed whether Quality Improvement Scotland national standards for the sexual health care offered to HIV-positive individuals are being met by the Edinburgh genitourinary (GU) medicine clinic; specifically whether HIV-positive patients are offered: (a) sexually transmitted infection (STI) screening annually and (b) syphilis testing six-monthly. The study also reviewed what factors were associated with a clinician's offer of STI screening and syphilis testing. Of the 509 patients seen within the study period, case notes documented that 64% were offered STI screens, and 69% were offered syphilis testing, results consistent with audits of services elsewhere. Sexual orientation (P offer of STI screening, while gender (P offer of syphilis testing. Our results suggest that one explanation for clinicians failing to offer STI screens and syphilis serology testing is their (implicit) risk assessment that STI testing is not required in individual patients.

Ontological Analysis of the Project Risk Management Concept ‘Risk’

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Uzulāns Juris

2018-02-01

Full Text Available The aim of the current research series is to examine the definitions of the concept ‘risk’ and analyze the concepts used in the definitions of ‘risk’ in the sources of these definitions in order to perform the ontological analysis of the concept of ‘risk’. Ontological and epistemological analysis of the concepts in the definition of the concept ‘risk’ was used to answer the question what ‘risk’ means in project management. This investigation represents a part of the research series where the ontological, epistemological and methodological analysis of project risk is performed with the aim to improve risk registers and risk management as a whole. In the previous studies the author analyzed the concept of ‘event’ that defines the content of the concept ‘risk’. The use of ‘event’ was analyzed in different sources to find out how the concept should be used. The ontological, epistemological and methodological analysis of the definitions of the concept ‘risk’ is the theoretical foundation for risk register creation because it is possible to create complete and understandable register for the participants of the project risk management process. The author believes that the conducted research helps establish confidence that ontological analysis is the method that together with the epistemological and methodological analysis provides opportunity to perform analysis of risk management sources aimed at improving risk management. The results of the study cannot be considered sufficient for deriving valid conclusions about project risk management and developing recommendations for improving risk management with regard to the content of the risk register. For valid conclusions and recommendations, a deeper research is needed which, first of all, would analyze a larger number of sources.

Should symptomatic menopausal women be offered hormone therapy?

Science.gov (United States)

Lobo, Rogerio A; Bélisle, Serge; Creasman, William T; Frankel, Nancy R; Goodman, Neil E; Hall, Janet E; Ivey, Susan Lee; Kingsberg, Sheryl; Langer, Robert; Lehman, Rebecca; McArthur, Donna Behler; Montgomery-Rice, Valerie; Notelovitz, Morris; Packin, Gary S; Rebar, Robert W; Rousseau, MaryEllen; Schenken, Robert S; Schneider, Diane L; Sherif, Katherine; Wysocki, Susan

2006-01-01

Many physicians remain uncertain about prescribing hormone therapy for symptomatic women at the onset of menopause. The American Society for Reproductive Medicine (ASRM) convened a multidisciplinary group of healthcare providers to discuss the efficacy and risks of hormone therapy for symptomatic women, and to determine whether it would be appropriate to treat women at the onset of menopause who were complaining of menopausal symptoms. Numerous controlled clinical trials consistently demonstrate that hormone therapy, administered via oral, transdermal, or vaginal routes, is the most effective treatment for vasomotor symptoms. Topical vaginal formulations of hormone therapy should be preferred when prescribing solely for the treatment of symptoms of vulvar and vaginal atrophy. Data from the Women's Health Initiative indicate that the overall attributable risk of invasive breast cancer in women receiving estrogen plus progestin was 8 more cases per 10,000 women-years. No increased risk for invasive breast cancer was detected for women who never used hormone therapy in the past or for those receiving estrogen only. Hormone therapy is not effective for the treatment of cardiovascular disease and that the risk of cardiovascular disease with hormone therapy is principally in older women who are considerably postmenopause. Healthy symptomatic women should be offered the option of hormone therapy for menopausal symptoms. Symptom relief with hormone therapy for many younger women (at the onset of menopause) with menopausal symptoms outweighs the risks and may provide an overall improvement in quality of life. Hormone therapy should be individualized for symptomatic women. This involves tailoring the regimen and dose to individual needs.

Risk analysis of alternative energy sources

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kazmer, D.R.

1982-01-01

The author explores two points raised by Miller Spangler in a January 1981 issue: public perception of risks involving nuclear power plants relative to those of conventional plants and criteria for evaluating the way risk analyses are made. On the first point, he concludes that translating public attitudes into the experts' language of probability and risk could provide better information and understanding of both the attitudes and the risks. Viewing risk analysis methodologies as filters which help to test historical change, he suggests that the lack of information favors a lay jury approach for energy decisions. Spangler responds that Congress is an example of lay decision making, but that a lay jury, given public disinterest and polarization, would probably not improve social justice on the nuclear issue. 5 references, 4 figures

Approaches to acceptable risk: a critical guide

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fischhoff, B.; Lichtenstein, S.; Slovic, P.; Keeney, R.; Derby, S.

1980-12-01

Acceptable-risk decisions are an essential step in the management of technological hazards. In many situations, they constitute the weak (or missing) link in the management process. The absence of an adequate decision-making methodology often produces indecision, inconsistency, and dissatisfaction. The result is neither good for hazard management nor good for society. This report offers a critical analysis of the viability of various approaches as guides to acceptable-risk decisions. This report seeks to define acceptable-risk decisions and to examine some frequently proposed, but inappropriate, solutions. 255 refs., 22 figs., 25 tabs.

Offer of authentic food as a condition for gastronomic tourism development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bojana Kalenjuk

2015-10-01

Full Text Available By perceiving the food as an important part of the tourism offer in terms of biological needs of tourists, the question arises as to how it can be further exploited to contribute to tourism development. In this regard, food prepared using the local ingredients, according to the old methods of processing and serving, and in an authentic way, can be of interest to the tourists of selective forms of tourism, also known as food tourism, gastronomic tourism and gourmet tourism. The research aims to demonstrate the quality of food offer in the hospitality industry of Vojvodina and examine whether it can meet the requirements of foreign tourists who travel for it. The survey was conducted in 147 catering facilities in Vojvodina offering food and beverages, by means of direct and indirect collecting of written offers, and includes the statistical analysis of 10,923 meals. The aim is to indicate the current state of gastronomic offer and all advantages of authentic food and gastronomic tourism.

Offers

CERN Multimedia

Staff Association

2013-01-01

Special offer for members of the Staff Association and their families 10 % reduction on all products in the SEPHORA shop (sells perfume, beauty products etc.) in Val Thoiry ALL YEAR ROUND. Plus 20 % reduction during their “vente privée”* three or four times a year. Simply present your Staff Association membership card when you make your purchase. * Next “vente privée” from 11th to 23rd November 2013 Please contact the Staff Association Secretariat to get the discount voucher.  

Offers

CERN Multimedia

Staff Association

2014-01-01

Special offer for members of the Staff Association and their families 10 % reduction on all products in the SEPHORA shop (sells perfume, beauty products etc.) in Val Thoiry ALL YEAR ROUND. Simply present your Staff Association membership card when you make your purchase. Plus 20 % reduction during their “vente privée”* three or four times a year. * Next “vente privée” from 24th September to 6th November 2014 Please contact the Staff Association Secretariat to get the discount voucher.  

Offers

CERN Multimedia

Staff Association

2012-01-01

Special offer for members of the Staff Association and their families 10 % reduction on all products in the Sephora shop (sells perfume, beauty products etc.) in Val Thoiry all year round. Plus 20 % reduction during their “vente privée”* three or four times a year. Simply present your Staff Association membership card when you make your purchase. * next “vente privée” from 21st November to 1st December 2012 Please contact the Staff Association Secretariat to get the discount voucher.

Offers

CERN Multimedia

Staff Association

2012-01-01

Special offer for members of the Staff Association and their families 10% reduction on all products in the SEPHORA shop (sells perfume, beauty products etc.) in Val Thoiry ALL YEAR ROUND. Plus 20% reduction during their “vente privée”* three or four times a year. Simply present your Staff Association membership card when you make your purchase. * Next “vente privée” from 21st to 26th May 2012 Please contact the Staff Association Secretariat to get the discount voucher  

The watchdog role of risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reijen, G. van; Vinck, W.

1983-01-01

The reason why the risks of large-scale technology attract more attention lies in the fact that accidents would have more disastrous results and in the fact that it is probably more attractive to study the risks of some large projects than to do the same for a greater number of smaller projects. Within this presentation there will be some opening remarks on the Role of the Commission of the European Community with regard to accident prevention. The development of the concept of quantitative risks is dealt with. This development leads to a combinded of deterministic and probabilistic methods. The presentation concludes with some critical remarks on quantitative risk analysis and its use. (orig./HP) [de

Analysis of Polish internet retail sites offering electronic cigarettes.

Science.gov (United States)

Zarobkiewicz, Michał Konrad; Woźniakowski, Mateusz Mariusz; Sławiński, Mirosław Aleksander; Samborski, Patryk Michał; Wawryk-Gawda, Ewelina; Jodłowska-Jędrych, Barbara

Electronic cigarettes as possibly healthier alternative to conventional cigarettes are gaining popularity worldwide, although they are still hazardous to human health. Partly it is caused by unregulated advertising and online sales. Unfortunately it is more and more popular for youth to try electronic cigarettes. The aim of the study was to assess the marketing claims used by Polish websites offering electronic cigarettes. A search using Google search engine was performed in July 2015 for two keywords: e-papierosy [e-cigarettes] and elektroniczne papierosy [electronic cigarettes]. First 150 websites (15 pages) were listed. After initial review 86 pages met all inclusion criteria and were included in the study. Pages were searched for presence of 13 selected marketing claims as well as age-related warning and any social websites connections. Age-related warning was present on only 33.72% (n=29) websites. Two thirds has its own Facebook fan-page with average 1922.09 ± 3634.86 likes. Articles about health are available on 10.46% (n=9) websites, 53.49% (n=46) states that e-cigarettes are healthier than conventional ones, 39.53% (n=34) emphasized that during usage of e-cigarettes no tarry substances are produced. Two pages had special article in which conventional and electronic cigarettes were compared. Almost half (44.19%) remarked that e-cigarettes are cheaper in usage than conventional, one third pointed out the simplicity of usage. 32.56% advertised e-cigarettes as aid in quitting smoking. One fourth stated that e-cigarettes are harmless for surroundings. 33.72% marketed them as a way of bypassing public smoking act. 56.98% remarked the variety of liquid tastes offered. Electronic cigarettes and their rising popularity create another new possible threat for public health as the widely available information emphasize safety of e-cigarettes usage and as their availability and usage is not limited or restricted by law. electronic cigarettes, e-cigarettes, internet

The use of current risk analysis tools evaluated towards preventing external domino accidents

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Reniers, Genserik L L; Dullaert, W.; Ale, B. J.M.; Soudan, K.

Risk analysis is an essential tool for company safety policy. Risk analysis consists of identifying and evaluating all possible risks. The efficiency of risk analysis tools depends on the rigueur of identifying and evaluating all possible risks. The diversity in risk analysis procedures is such that

Dietary patterns and depression risk: A meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Ye; Lv, Mei-Rong; Wei, Yan-Jin; Sun, Ling; Zhang, Ji-Xiang; Zhang, Huai-Guo; Li, Bin

2017-07-01

Although some studies have reported potential associations of dietary patterns with depression risk, a consistent perspective hasn't been estimated to date. Therefore, we conducted this meta-analysis to evaluate the relation between dietary patterns and the risk of depression. A literature research was conducted searching MEDLINE and EMBASE databases up to September 2016. In total, 21 studies from ten countries met the inclusion criteria and were included in the present meta-analysis. A dietary pattern characterized by a high intakes of fruit, vegetables, whole grain, fish, olive oil, low-fat dairy and antioxidants and low intakes of animal foods was apparently associated with a decreased risk of depression. A dietary pattern characterized by a high consumption of red and/or processed meat, refined grains, sweets, high-fat dairy products, butter, potatoes and high-fat gravy, and low intakes of fruits and vegetables is associated with an increased risk of depression. The results of this meta-analysis suggest that healthy pattern may decrease the risk of depression, whereas western-style may increase the risk of depression. However, more randomized controlled trails and cohort studies are urgently required to confirm this findings. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Survival analysis of cancer risk reduction strategies for BRCA1/2 mutation carriers.

Science.gov (United States)

Kurian, Allison W; Sigal, Bronislava M; Plevritis, Sylvia K

2010-01-10

Women with BRCA1/2 mutations inherit high risks of breast and ovarian cancer; options to reduce cancer mortality include prophylactic surgery or breast screening, but their efficacy has never been empirically compared. We used decision analysis to simulate risk-reducing strategies in BRCA1/2 mutation carriers and to compare resulting survival probability and causes of death. We developed a Monte Carlo model of breast screening with annual mammography plus magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) from ages 25 to 69 years, prophylactic mastectomy (PM) at various ages, and/or prophylactic oophorectomy (PO) at ages 40 or 50 years in 25-year-old BRCA1/2 mutation carriers. With no intervention, survival probability by age 70 is 53% for BRCA1 and 71% for BRCA2 mutation carriers. The most effective single intervention for BRCA1 mutation carriers is PO at age 40, yielding a 15% absolute survival gain; for BRCA2 mutation carriers, the most effective single intervention is PM, yielding a 7% survival gain if performed at age 40 years. The combination of PM and PO at age 40 improves survival more than any single intervention, yielding 24% survival gain for BRCA1 and 11% for BRCA2 mutation carriers. PM at age 25 instead of age 40 offers minimal incremental benefit (1% to 2%); substituting screening for PM yields a similarly minimal decrement in survival (2% to 3%). Although PM at age 25 plus PO at age 40 years maximizes survival probability, substituting mammography plus MRI screening for PM seems to offer comparable survival. These results may guide women with BRCA1/2 mutations in their choices between prophylactic surgery and breast screening.

Breast Cancer Risk Estimation Using Parenchymal Texture Analysis in Digital Breast Tomosynthesis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ikejimba, Lynda C.; Kontos, Despina; Maidment, Andrew D. A.

2010-01-01

Mammographic parenchymal texture has been shown to correlate with genetic markers of developing breast cancer. Digital breast tomosynthesis (DBT) is a novel x-ray imaging technique in which tomographic images of the breast are reconstructed from multiple source projections acquired at different angles of the x-ray tube. Compared to digital mammography (DM), DBT eliminates breast tissue overlap, offering superior parenchymal tissue visualization. We hypothesize that texture analysis in DBT could potentially provide a better assessment of parenchymal texture and ultimately result in more accurate assessment of breast cancer risk. As a first step towards validating this hypothesis, we investigated the association between DBT parenchymal texture and breast percent density (PD), a known breast cancer risk factor, and compared it to DM. Bilateral DBT and DM images from 71 women participating in a breast cancer screening trial were analyzed. Filtered-backprojection was used to reconstruct DBT tomographic planes in 1 mm increments with 0.22 mm in-plane resolution. Corresponding DM images were acquired at 0.1 mm pixel resolution. Retroareolar regions of interest (ROIs) equivalent to 2.5 cm 3 were segmented from the DBT images and corresponding 2.5 cm 2 ROIs were segmented from the DM images. Breast PD was mammographically estimated using the Cumulus scale. Overall, DBT texture features demonstrated a stronger correlation than DM to PD. The Pearson correlation coefficients for DBT were r = 0.40 (p 2 = 0.39) compared to DM (R 2 = 0.33). We attribute these observations to the superior parenchymal tissue visualization in DBT. Our study is the first to perform DBT texture analysis in a screening population of women, showing that DBT could potentially provide better breast cancer risk assessment in the future.

48 CFR 25.503 - Group offers.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Group offers. 25.503... PROGRAMS FOREIGN ACQUISITION Evaluating Foreign Offers-Supply Contracts 25.503 Group offers. (a) If the solicitation or an offer specifies that award can be made only on a group of line items or on all line items...

Benefit-Risk Analysis for Decision-Making: An Approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Raju, G K; Gurumurthi, K; Domike, R

2016-12-01

The analysis of benefit and risk is an important aspect of decision-making throughout the drug lifecycle. In this work, the use of a benefit-risk analysis approach to support decision-making was explored. The proposed approach builds on the qualitative US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approach to include a more explicit analysis based on international standards and guidance that enables aggregation and comparison of benefit and risk on a common basis and a lifecycle focus. The approach is demonstrated on six decisions over the lifecycle (e.g., accelerated approval, withdrawal, and traditional approval) using two case studies: natalizumab for multiple sclerosis (MS) and bedaquiline for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB). © 2016 American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

Airports offer unrealized potential for alternative energy production.

Science.gov (United States)

DeVault, Travis L; Belant, Jerrold L; Blackwell, Bradley F; Martin, James A; Schmidt, Jason A; Wes Burger, L; Patterson, James W

2012-03-01

Scaling up for alternative energy such as solar, wind, and biofuel raises a number of environmental issues, notably changes in land use and adverse effects on wildlife. Airports offer one of the few land uses where reductions in wildlife abundance and habitat quality are necessary and socially acceptable, due to risk of wildlife collisions with aircraft. There are several uncertainties and limitations to establishing alternative energy production at airports, such as ensuring these facilities do not create wildlife attractants or other hazards. However, with careful planning, locating alternative energy projects at airports could help mitigate many of the challenges currently facing policy makers, developers, and conservationists.

Methodology for risk-based analysis of technical specifications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vesely, W.E.; Gaertner, J.P.; Wagner, D.P.

1985-01-01

Part of the effort by EPRI to apply probabilistic risk assessment methods and results to the solution of utility problems involves the investigation of methods for risk-based analysis of technical specifications. The culmination of this investigation is the SOCRATES computer code developed by Battelle's Columbus Laboratories to assist in the evaluation of technical specifications of nuclear power plants. The program is designed to use information found in PRAs to re-evaluate risk for changes in component allowed outage times (AOTs) and surveillance test intervals (STIs). The SOCRATES program is a unique and important tool for technical specification evaluations. The detailed component unavailability model allows a detailed analysis of AOT and STI contributions to risk. Explicit equations allow fast and inexpensive calculations. Because the code is designed to accept ranges of parameters and to save results of calculations that do not change during the analysis, sensitivity studies are efficiently performed and results are clearly displayed

17 CFR 230.802 - Exemption for offerings in connection with an exchange offer or business combination for the...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... connection with an exchange offer or business combination for the securities of foreign private issuers. 230... Offers and Business Combinations § 230.802 Exemption for offerings in connection with an exchange offer or business combination for the securities of foreign private issuers. Offers and sales in any...

Implementing the Bayesian paradigm in risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aven, T.; Kvaloey, J.T.

2002-01-01

The Bayesian paradigm comprises a unified and consistent framework for analyzing and expressing risk. Yet, we see rather few examples of applications where the full Bayesian setting has been adopted with specifications of priors of unknown parameters. In this paper, we discuss some of the practical challenges of implementing Bayesian thinking and methods in risk analysis, emphasizing the introduction of probability models and parameters and associated uncertainty assessments. We conclude that there is a need for a pragmatic view in order to 'successfully' apply the Bayesian approach, such that we can do the assignments of some of the probabilities without adopting the somewhat sophisticated procedure of specifying prior distributions of parameters. A simple risk analysis example is presented to illustrate ideas

Offering pre-exposure prophylaxis for HIV prevention to pregnant and postpartum women: a clinical approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Seidman, Dominika L; Weber, Shannon; Cohan, Deborah

2017-03-08

HIV prevention during pregnancy and lactation is critical for both maternal and child health. Pregnancy provides a critical opportunity for clinicians to elicit women's vulnerabilities to HIV and offer HIV testing, treatment and referral and/or comprehensive HIV prevention options for the current pregnancy, the postpartum period and safer conception options for future pregnancies. In this commentary, we review the safety of oral pre-exposure prophylaxis with tenofovir/emtricitabine in pregnant and lactating women and suggest opportunities to identify pregnant and postpartum women at substantial risk of HIV. We then describe a clinical approach to caring for women who both choose and decline pre-exposure prophylaxis during pregnancy and postpartum, highlighting areas for future research. Evidence suggests that pre-exposure prophylaxis with tenofovir/emtricitabine is safe in pregnancy and lactation. Identifying women vulnerable to HIV and eligible for pre-exposure prophylaxis is challenging in light of the myriad of individual, community, and structural forces impacting HIV acquisition. Validated risk calculators exist for specific populations but have not been used to screen and offer HIV prevention methods. Partner testing and engagement of men living with HIV are additional means of reaching at-risk women. However, women's vulnerabilities to HIV change over time. Combining screening for HIV vulnerability with HIV and/or STI testing at standard intervals during pregnancy is a practical way to prompt providers to incorporate HIV screening and prevention counselling. We suggest using shared decision-making to offer women pre-exposure prophylaxis as one of multiple HIV prevention strategies during pregnancy and postpartum, facilitating open conversations about HIV vulnerabilities, preferences about HIV prevention strategies, and choosing a method that best meets the needs of each woman. Growing evidence suggests that pre-exposure prophylaxis with tenofovir

Quantitative Risk Analysis: Method And Process

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anass BAYAGA

2010-03-01

Full Text Available Recent and past studies (King III report, 2009: 73-75; Stoney 2007;Committee of Sponsoring Organisation-COSO, 2004, Bartell, 2003; Liebenberg and Hoyt, 2003; Reason, 2000; Markowitz 1957 lament that although, the introduction of quantifying risk to enhance degree of objectivity in finance for instance was quite parallel to its development in the manufacturing industry, it is not the same in Higher Education Institution (HEI. In this regard, the objective of the paper was to demonstrate the methods and process of Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA through likelihood of occurrence of risk (phase I. This paper serves as first of a two-phased study, which sampled hundred (100 risk analysts in a University in the greater Eastern Cape Province of South Africa.The analysis of likelihood of occurrence of risk by logistic regression and percentages were conducted to investigate whether there were a significant difference or not between groups (analyst in respect of QRA.The Hosmer and Lemeshow test was non-significant with a chi-square(X2 =8.181; p = 0.300, which indicated that there was a good model fit, since the data did not significantly deviate from the model. The study concluded that to derive an overall likelihood rating that indicated the probability that a potential risk may be exercised within the construct of an associated threat environment, the following governing factors must be considered: (1 threat source motivation and capability (2 nature of the vulnerability (3 existence and effectiveness of current controls (methods and process.

Risk Analysis for Performance Improvement in a Romanian Pharmaceutical Company

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dana Corina Deselnicu

2018-05-01

Full Text Available The paper presents risk management analysis carried out to investigate the operations of a Romanian company dealing with the distribution of pharmaceutical products. The main risks challenging the company were identified, described and classified, providing a scientific base for further analysis. Then, the identified inherent risks were evaluated using tools as the risk index method and the risk matrix in order to emphasize their tolerance level. According to the results of the evaluation, risk mitigation strategies and measures were advanced for the management of the analysed risks. Relevant conclusions were drawn from the experience.

Reducing Production Basis Risk through Rainfall Intensity Frequency (RIF) Indexes: Global Sensitivity Analysis' Implication on Policy Design

Science.gov (United States)

Muneepeerakul, Chitsomanus; Huffaker, Ray; Munoz-Carpena, Rafael

2016-04-01

The weather index insurance promises financial resilience to farmers struck by harsh weather conditions with swift compensation at affordable premium thanks to its minimal adverse selection and moral hazard. Despite these advantages, the very nature of indexing causes the presence of "production basis risk" that the selected weather indexes and their thresholds do not correspond to actual damages. To reduce basis risk without additional data collection cost, we propose the use of rain intensity and frequency as indexes as it could offer better protection at the lower premium by avoiding basis risk-strike trade-off inherent in the total rainfall index. We present empirical evidences and modeling results that even under the similar cumulative rainfall and temperature environment, yield can significantly differ especially for drought sensitive crops. We further show that deriving the trigger level and payoff function from regression between historical yield and total rainfall data may pose significant basis risk owing to their non-unique relationship in the insured range of rainfall. Lastly, we discuss the design of index insurance in terms of contract specifications based on the results from global sensitivity analysis.

Risk analysis and reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Uppuluri, V.R.R.

1979-01-01

Mathematical foundations of risk analysis are addressed. The importance of having the same probability space in order to compare different experiments is pointed out. Then the following topics are discussed: consequences as random variables with infinite expectations; the phenomenon of rare events; series-parallel systems and different kinds of randomness that could be imposed on such systems; and the problem of consensus of estimates of expert opinion

Assessment report on NRP sub-theme 'Risk Analysis'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Biesiot, W.; Hendrickx, L.; Olsthoorn, A.A.

1995-01-01

An overview and assessment are presented of the three research projects carried out under NRP funding that concern risk-related topics: (1) The risks of nonlinear climate changes, (2) Socio-economic and policy aspects of changes in incidence and intensity of extreme (weather) events, and (3) Characterizing the risks: a comparative analysis of the risks of global warming and of relevant policy strategies. 1 tab., 6 refs

Applications of probabilistic risk analysis in nuclear criticality safety design

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chang, J.K.

1992-01-01

Many documents have been prepared that try to define the scope of the criticality analysis and that suggest adding probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) to the deterministic safety analysis. The report of the US Department of Energy (DOE) AL 5481.1B suggested that an accident is credible if the occurrence probability is >1 x 10 -6 /yr. The draft DOE 5480 safety analysis report suggested that safety analyses should include the application of methods such as deterministic safety analysis, risk assessment, reliability engineering, common-cause failure analysis, human reliability analysis, and human factor safety analysis techniques. The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) report NRC SG830.110 suggested that major safety analysis methods should include but not be limited to risk assessment, reliability engineering, and human factor safety analysis. All of these suggestions have recommended including PRA in the traditional criticality analysis

GIS risk analysis of hazardous materials transport

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anders, C.; Olsten, J.

1991-01-01

The Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to assess the risks and vulnerability of transporting hazardous materials and wastes (such as gasoline, explosives, poisons, etc) on the Arizona highway system. This paper discusses the methodology that was utilized, and the application of GIS systems to risk analysis problems

APPROPRIATE ALLOCATION OF CONTINGENCY USING RISK ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andi Andi

2004-01-01

Full Text Available Many cost overruns in the world of construction are attributable to either unforeseen events or foreseen events for which uncertainty was not appropriately accommodated. It is argued that a significant improvement to project management performance may result from greater attention to the process of analyzing project risks. The objective of this paper is to propose a risk analysis methodology for appropriate allocation of contingency in project cost estimation. In the first step, project risks will be identified. Influence diagramming technique is employed to identify and to show how the risks affect the project cost elements and also the relationships among the risks themselves. The second step is to assess the project costs with regards to the risks under consideration. Using a linguistic approach, the degree of uncertainty of identified project risks is assessed and quantified. The problem of dependency between risks is taken into consideration during this analysis. For the final step, as the main purpose of this paper, a method for allocating appropriate contingency is presented. Two types of contingencies, i.e. project contingency and management reserve are proposed to accommodate the risks. An illustrative example is presented at the end to show the application of the methodology.

The integration methods of fuzzy fault mode and effect analysis and fault tree analysis for risk analysis of yogurt production

Science.gov (United States)

Aprilia, Ayu Rizky; Santoso, Imam; Ekasari, Dhita Murita

2017-05-01

Yogurt is a product based on milk, which has beneficial effects for health. The process for the production of yogurt is very susceptible to failure because it involves bacteria and fermentation. For an industry, the risks may cause harm and have a negative impact. In order for a product to be successful and profitable, it requires the analysis of risks that may occur during the production process. Risk analysis can identify the risks in detail and prevent as well as determine its handling, so that the risks can be minimized. Therefore, this study will analyze the risks of the production process with a case study in CV.XYZ. The method used in this research is the Fuzzy Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (fuzzy FMEA) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA). The results showed that there are 6 risks from equipment variables, raw material variables, and process variables. Those risks include the critical risk, which is the risk of a lack of an aseptic process, more specifically if starter yogurt is damaged due to contamination by fungus or other bacteria and a lack of sanitation equipment. The results of quantitative analysis of FTA showed that the highest probability is the probability of the lack of an aseptic process, with a risk of 3.902%. The recommendations for improvement include establishing SOPs (Standard Operating Procedures), which include the process, workers, and environment, controlling the starter of yogurt and improving the production planning and sanitation equipment using hot water immersion.

Analysis of risk factors for persistent infection of asymptomatic women with high-risk human papilloma virus.

Science.gov (United States)

Shi, Nianmin; Lu, Qiang; Zhang, Jiao; Li, Li; Zhang, Junnan; Zhang, Fanglei; Dong, Yanhong; Zhang, Xinyue; Zhang, Zheng; Gao, Wenhui

2017-06-03

This study aims to prevent persistentinfection, reduce the incidence of cervical cancer, and improve women's health by understanding the theoretical basis of the risk factors for continuous infection of asymptomatic women with high-risk human papilloma virus (HPV) strains via information collected, which includes the persistent infection rate and the most prevalent HPV strain types of high risk to asymptomatic women in the high-risk area of cervical cancer in Linfen, Shanxi Province. Based on the method of cluster sampling, locations were chosen from the industrial county and agricultural county of Linfen, Shanxi Province, namely the Xiangfen and Quwo counties. Use of the convenience sampling (CS) method enables the identification of women who have sex but without symptoms of abnormal cervix for analyzing risk factors of HPV-DNA detection and performing a retrospective questionnaire survey in these 2 counties. Firstly, cervical exfoliated cell samples were collected for thin-layer liquid-based cytology test (TCT), and simultaneously testing high-risk type HPV DNA, then samples with positive testing results were retested to identify the infected HPV types. The 6-month period of testing was done to derive the 6-month persistent infection rate. The retrospective survey included concepts addressed in the questionnaire: basic situation of the research objects, menstrual history, marital status, pregnancy history, sexual habits and other aspects. The questionnaire was divided into a case group and a comparison group, which are based on the high-risk HPV-DNA testing result to ascertain whether or not there is persistent infection. Statistical analysis employed Epidate3.1 software for date entry, SPSS17.0 for date statistical analysis. Select statistic charts, Chi-Square Analysis, single-factor analysis and multivariate Logistic regression analysis to analyze the protective factors and risk factors of high-risk HPV infection. Risk factors are predicted by using the

CURRICULAR OFFER INFLUENCING STUDENTS’ SATISFACTION: COMPARATIVE STUDY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oana DUMITRASCU

2014-11-01

Full Text Available The main objective of the study is the determination of students’ satisfaction regarding curricular activities. The study has been accomplished using the qualitative and quantitative research, using the bibliographic study, various secondary sources and different primary sources. The study is developed with a marketing research and accomplished using the survey method. 699 students from four universities have been questioned. Due to a comparative study the University of Applied Sciences Worms, University of Applied Sciences Wiesbaden Rüsselsheim, University of Applied Sciences Frankfurt am Main and Nürtingen-Geislingen University have been analysed and their similarities and differences have been identified. The collected data, based on the established sample, is evaluated through univariate and bivariate analysis. In accordance with the evaluated sample, specific gaps from each region are identified regarding the curricular offer of the analysed universities. As a result to the conducted study, recommendations for the University of Applied Sciences Worms regarding the student’s satisfaction concerning the curricular offer are presented.

The application of CFD to hydrogen risk analysis in nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Hui; Han Xu; Chang Meng; Wang Xiaofeng; Wang Shuguo; Lu Xinhua; Wu Lin

2013-01-01

Status of the hydrogen risk analysis method is systemically summarized in this paper and the advantages and limits of CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamic) in hydrogen risk analysis is discussed. The international experimental programs on the CFD hydrogen risk analysis are introduced in this paper. The application of CFD to nuclear power plant (NPP) hydrogen risk analysis is introduced in detail by taking EPR and Ling'ao NPP for example. In these bases, the CFD development prospect of hydrogen risk analysis is also summarized in this paper. (authors)

A free and open source QGIS plugin for flood risk analysis: FloodRisk

Science.gov (United States)

Albano, Raffaele; Sole, Aurelia; Mancusi, Leonardo

2016-04-01

An analysis of global statistics shows a substantial increase in flood damage over the past few decades. Moreover, it is expected that flood risk will continue to rise due to the combined effect of increasing numbers of people and economic assets in risk-prone areas and the effects of climate change. In order to increase the resilience of European economies and societies, the improvement of risk assessment and management has been pursued in the last years. This results in a wide range of flood analysis models of different complexities with substantial differences in underlying components needed for its implementation, as geographical, hydrological and social differences demand specific approaches in the different countries. At present, it is emerging the need of promote the creation of open, transparent, reliable and extensible tools for a comprehensive, context-specific and applicable flood risk analysis. In this context, the free and open-source Quantum GIS (QGIS) plugin "FloodRisk" is a good starting point to address this objective. The vision of the developers of this free and open source software (FOSS) is to combine the main features of state-of-the-art science, collaboration, transparency and interoperability in an initiative to assess and communicate flood risk worldwide and to assist authorities to facilitate the quality and fairness of flood risk management at multiple scales. Among the scientific community, this type of activity can be labelled as "participatory research", intended as adopting a set of techniques that "are interactive and collaborative" and reproducible, "providing a meaningful research experience that both promotes learning and generates knowledge and research data through a process of guided discovery"' (Albano et al., 2015). Moreover, this FOSS geospatial approach can lowering the financial barriers to understanding risks at national and sub-national levels through a spatio-temporal domain and can provide better and more complete

THE COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS REGARDING THE SERVICES OFFERED BY THE INTERNATIONAL HOTEL CHAINS FROM ROMANIA

OpenAIRE

CRISTINA FLESERIU

2010-01-01

The hotel services are a part from the tourism services, or can be defined as an independent offer. In the second place, the most important thing is the need of accommodation (probably also food and other additional services – conference room, recreational facilities, etc.) from those that are traveling for business or with some other personal problems. As follow, in Romania, all the hospitality business units must offer a range of additional services, with or without pay. Due to the fact tha...

An actuarial analysis shows that offering lung cancer screening as an insurance benefit would save lives at relatively low cost.

Science.gov (United States)

Pyenson, Bruce S; Sander, Marcia S; Jiang, Yiding; Kahn, Howard; Mulshine, James L

2012-04-01

Lung cancer screening is not established as a public health practice, yet the results of a recent large randomized controlled trial showed that screening with low-dose spiral computed tomography reduces lung cancer mortality. Using actuarial models, this study estimated the costs and benefits of annual lung cancer screening offered as a commercial insurance benefit in the high-risk US population ages 50-64. Assuming current commercial reimbursement rates for treatment, we found that screening would cost about $1 per insured member per month in 2012 dollars. The cost per life-year saved would be below $19,000, an amount that compares favorably with screening for cervical, breast, and colorectal cancers. Our results suggest that commercial insurers should consider lung cancer screening of high-risk individuals to be high-value coverage and provide it as a benefit to people who are at least fifty years old and have a smoking history of thirty pack-years or more. We also believe that payers and patients should demand screening from high-quality, low-cost providers, thus helping set an example of efficient system innovation.

Power system operation risk analysis considering charging load self-management of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, Zhe; Wang, Dan; Jia, Hongjie; Djilali, Ned

2014-01-01

Highlights: • The interactive mechanism between system and PHEVs is presented. • The charging load self-management without sacrificing user requirements is proposed. • The charging load self-management is coupled to system operation risk analysis. • The charging load self-management can reduce the extra risk brought by PHEVs. • The charging load self-management can shift charging power to the time with low risk. - Abstract: Many jurisdictions around the world are supporting the adoption of electric vehicles through incentives and the deployment of a charging infrastructure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), with offer mature technology and stable performance, are expected to gain an increasingly larger share of the consumer market. The aggregated effect on power grid due to large-scale penetration of PHEVs needs to be analyzed. Nighttime-charging which typically characterizes PHEVs is helpful in filling the nocturnal load valley, but random charging of large PHEV fleets at night may result in new load peaks and valleys. Active response strategy is a potentially effective solution to mitigate the additional risks brought by the integration of PHEVs. This paper proposes a power system operation risk analysis framework in which charging load self-management is used to control system operation risk. We describe an interactive mechanism between the system and PHEVs in conjunction with a smart charging model is to simulate the time series power consumption of PHEVs. The charging load is managed with adjusting the state transition boundaries and without violating the users’ desired charging constraints. The load curtailment caused by voltage or power flow violation after outages is determined by controlling charging power. At the same time, the system risk is maintained under an acceptable level through charging load self-management. The proposed method is implemented using the Roy Billinton Test System (RBTS) and

Patient Segmentation Analysis Offers Significant Benefits For Integrated Care And Support.

Science.gov (United States)

Vuik, Sabine I; Mayer, Erik K; Darzi, Ara

2016-05-01

Integrated care aims to organize care around the patient instead of the provider. It is therefore crucial to understand differences across patients and their needs. Segmentation analysis that uses big data can help divide a patient population into distinct groups, which can then be targeted with care models and intervention programs tailored to their needs. In this article we explore the potential applications of patient segmentation in integrated care. We propose a framework for population strategies in integrated care-whole populations, subpopulations, and high-risk populations-and show how patient segmentation can support these strategies. Through international case examples, we illustrate practical considerations such as choosing a segmentation logic, accessing data, and tailoring care models. Important issues for policy makers to consider are trade-offs between simplicity and precision, trade-offs between customized and off-the-shelf solutions, and the availability of linked data sets. We conclude that segmentation can provide many benefits to integrated care, and we encourage policy makers to support its use. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

Chemical risk evaluation, importance of the risk analysis framework uses: Latin America development restrictions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carrillo, M.

2013-01-01

The power point presentation is about reach and results of the risk analysis in Venezuela, chemical dangers in food, human damage, injuries , technologies news in fodd development, toxicity, microbiological risk, technical recommendations

Spent fuel pool risk analysis for the Dukovany NPP

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hust' ak, S.; Jaros, M.; Kubicek, J. [UJV Rez, a.s., Husinec-Rez (Czech Republic)

2013-07-01

UJV Rez, a.s. maintains a Living Probabilistic Safety Assessment (Living PSA) program for Dukovany Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) in the Czech Republic. This project has been established as a framework for activities related to risk assessment and to support for risk-informed decision making at this plant. The most extensively used PSA application at Dukovany NPP is risk monitoring of instantaneous (point-in-time) risk during plant operation, especially for the purpose of configuration risk management during plant scheduled outages to avoid risk significant configurations. The scope of PSA for Dukovany NPP includes also determination of a risk contribution from spent fuel pool (SFP) operation to provide recommendations for the prevention and mitigation of SFP accidents and to be applicable for configuration risk management. This paper describes the analysis of internal initiating events (IEs) in PSA for Dukovany NPP, which can contribute to the risk from SFP operation. The analysis of those IEs was done more thoroughly in the PSA for Dukovany NPP in order to be used in instantaneous risk monitoring. (orig.)

Risk analysis for decision support in electricity distribution system asset management: methods and frameworks for analysing intangible risks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nordgaard, Dag Eirik

2010-04-15

During the last 10 to 15 years electricity distribution companies throughout the world have been ever more focused on asset management as the guiding principle for their activities. Within asset management, risk is a key issue for distribution companies, together with handling of cost and performance. There is now an increased awareness of the need to include risk analyses into the companies' decision making processes. Much of the work on risk in electricity distribution systems has focused on aspects of reliability. This is understandable, since it is surely an important feature of the product delivered by the electricity distribution infrastructure, and it is high on the agenda for regulatory authorities in many countries. However, electricity distribution companies are also concerned with other risks relevant for their decision making. This typically involves intangible risks, such as safety, environmental impacts and company reputation. In contrast to the numerous methodologies developed for reliability risk analysis, there are relatively few applications of structured analyses to support decisions concerning intangible risks, even though they represent an important motivation for decisions taken in electricity distribution companies. The overall objective of this PhD work has been to explore risk analysis methods that can be used to improve and support decision making in electricity distribution system asset management, with an emphasis on the analysis of intangible risks. The main contributions of this thesis can be summarised as: An exploration and testing of quantitative risk analysis (QRA) methods to support decisions concerning intangible risks; The development of a procedure for using life curve models to provide input to QRA models; The development of a framework for risk-informed decision making where QRA are used to analyse selected problems; In addition, the results contribute to clarify the basic concepts of risk, and highlight challenges

[Reliability theory based on quality risk network analysis for Chinese medicine injection].

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Zheng; Kang, Li-Yuan; Fan, Xiao-Hui

2014-08-01

A new risk analysis method based upon reliability theory was introduced in this paper for the quality risk management of Chinese medicine injection manufacturing plants. The risk events including both cause and effect ones were derived in the framework as nodes with a Bayesian network analysis approach. It thus transforms the risk analysis results from failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) into a Bayesian network platform. With its structure and parameters determined, the network can be used to evaluate the system reliability quantitatively with probabilistic analytical appraoches. Using network analysis tools such as GeNie and AgenaRisk, we are able to find the nodes that are most critical to influence the system reliability. The importance of each node to the system can be quantitatively evaluated by calculating the effect of the node on the overall risk, and minimization plan can be determined accordingly to reduce their influences and improve the system reliability. Using the Shengmai injection manufacturing plant of SZYY Ltd as a user case, we analyzed the quality risk with both static FMEA analysis and dynamic Bayesian Network analysis. The potential risk factors for the quality of Shengmai injection manufacturing were identified with the network analysis platform. Quality assurance actions were further defined to reduce the risk and improve the product quality.

Dietary patterns and colorectal cancer risk: a meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Feng, Yu-Liang; Shu, Long; Zheng, Pei-Fen; Zhang, Xiao-Yan; Si, Cai-Juan; Yu, Xiao-Long; Gao, Wei; Zhang, Lun

2017-05-01

The analysis of dietary patterns has recently drawn considerable attention as a method of investigating the association between the overall whole diet and the risk of colorectal cancer. However, the results have yielded conflicting findings. Here, we carried out a meta-analysis to identify the association between dietary patterns and the risk of colorectal cancer. A total of 40 studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria and were included in this meta-analysis. The highest category of 'healthy' dietary pattern compared with the lowest category was apparently associated with a decreased risk for colorectal cancer [odds ratio (OR)=0.75; confidence interval (CI): 0.68-0.83; Pcolorectal cancer was shown for the highest compared with the lowest category of a 'western-style' dietary pattern (OR=1.40; CI: 1.26-1.56; Pcolorectal cancer in the highest compared with the lowest category of 'alcohol-consumption' pattern (OR=1.44; CI: 1.13-1.82; P=0.003). The results of this meta-analysis indicate that a 'healthy' dietary pattern may decrease the risk of colorectal cancer, whereas 'western-style' and 'alcohol-consumption' patterns may increase the risk of colorectal cancer.

Offers

CERN Multimedia

Staff Association

2014-01-01

Passeport Gourmand   Are you dying for a nice meal? The “Passeport Gourmand” offers discounted prices to the members of the Staff Association (available until April 2015 and on sale in the Staff Association Secretariat): Passeport gourmand Ain / Savoie/ Haute Savoie: 56 CHF instead of 79 CHF. Passeport gourmand Geneva / neighbouring France:72 CHF instead of 95 CHF. To the members of the Staff Association: Benefit of reduced tickets: CHF 10 (instead of  18 CHF at the desk) on sale to the secretariat of the Staff Association, Building 510-R010 (in front of the Printshop).

Evaluating the Quality of Website Information of Private-Practice Clinics Offering Cell Therapies in Japan.

Science.gov (United States)

Kashihara, Hidenori; Nakayama, Takeo; Hatta, Taichi; Takahashi, Naomi; Fujita, Misao

2016-05-24

Although the safety and effectiveness of stem cell therapies are yet to be proven, recent studies show that such therapies are being advertised with some questionable marketing techniques to effect positive portrayal of the therapies on the webpages of private-practice clinics to sell their therapies worldwide. In such context, those clinics communicate directly with consumers (patients and their family members) via the clinics' websites. Meanwhile, the Health Science Council at the Ministry of Health, Labour, and Welfare (MHLW) in Japan has pointed out noncompliance of some local clinics with the provisions concerning medical advertising in the Medical Care Act in the past. However, locally little is known about the current status of those clinics including the quality of their webpage information disseminated. To evaluate the quality of website information of private-practice clinics offering cell therapies in Japan. Twenty-four websites with 77 treatments from the Google search were identified for evaluation. The following three exploratory analyses were performed: first in order to ascertain web-based portrayal of private-practice clinics offering cell therapies, a descriptive analysis was conducted using a coding frame; second we evaluated the quality of the target website information from the viewpoint of the level of consideration taken for patients and their family members, using 10 quality criteria ("the Minimum Standard") from the e-Health Code of Ethics 2.0; third we counted and coded expressions that matched set categories for "name-dropping" and "personalized medicine" in the information posted on these websites. Analysis on the treatments (N=77) revealed 126 indications (multiple response): the top three indications were "cancer," "skin-rejuvenation/antiaging/anti-skin aging," and "breast augmentation/buttock augmentation." As for the portrayal of treatment risks and benefits, 78% (60/77) of treatments were mentioned with "benefits," whereas 77% (59

Trade-offs between worker risk and public risk during remediation at DOE sites

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beam, B.N.; Morris, J.; Blaylock, B.; Travis, C.

1995-01-01

Within the next 30 years, the US Department of Energy (DOE) Environmental Restoration Program will be responsible for remediating thousands of waste sites across the DOE complex. A major concern during remediation will be the protection of thousands of workers engaged in the remediation. In addition to well know safety hazards associated with conventional construction operations, remedial workers at DOE will encounter radiation and chemical exposures from radioactive, hazardous, and mixed waste. Although historically represented as minimal due to a paucity of data related to worker exposures during remediation, potential worker health risk is an important factor that must be taken into account in the selection of remedial strategies, and the potential risk reduction offered by a remedial strategy must be weighed against the potential worker risk incurred during its implementation. Analysis has shown a trend that the worker risk incurred outweighs,the benefits of risk reduction to the public

Sensitivity Analysis of Launch Vehicle Debris Risk Model

Science.gov (United States)

Gee, Ken; Lawrence, Scott L.

2010-01-01

As part of an analysis of the loss of crew risk associated with an ascent abort system for a manned launch vehicle, a model was developed to predict the impact risk of the debris resulting from an explosion of the launch vehicle on the crew module. The model consisted of a debris catalog describing the number, size and imparted velocity of each piece of debris, a method to compute the trajectories of the debris and a method to calculate the impact risk given the abort trajectory of the crew module. The model provided a point estimate of the strike probability as a function of the debris catalog, the time of abort and the delay time between the abort and destruction of the launch vehicle. A study was conducted to determine the sensitivity of the strike probability to the various model input parameters and to develop a response surface model for use in the sensitivity analysis of the overall ascent abort risk model. The results of the sensitivity analysis and the response surface model are presented in this paper.

Supplemental Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment - Hydrotreater

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lowry, Peter P. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wagner, Katie A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

2015-04-01

A supplemental hazard analysis was conducted and quantitative risk assessment performed in response to an independent review comment received by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) from the U.S. Department of Energy Pacific Northwest Field Office (PNSO) against the Hydrotreater/Distillation Column Hazard Analysis Report issued in April 2013. The supplemental analysis used the hazardous conditions documented by the previous April 2013 report as a basis. The conditions were screened and grouped for the purpose of identifying whether additional prudent, practical hazard controls could be identified, using a quantitative risk evaluation to assess the adequacy of the controls and establish a lower level of concern for the likelihood of potential serious accidents. Calculations were performed to support conclusions where necessary.

Expensive blood safety initiatives may offer less benefit than we think

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kamper-Jørgensen, Mads; Hjalgrim, Henrik; Edgren, Gustaf

2010-01-01

Various blood safety initiatives have ensured a historically low risk of infection transmission through blood transfusion. Although further prevention of infection transmission is possible through, for example, nucleic acid testing and future introduction of pathogen inactivation, such initiative...... are very costly in relation to the benefit they offer. Although estimation of the cost-effectiveness requires detailed information about the survival of transfusion recipients, previous cost-effectiveness analyses have relied on incorrect survival assumptions....

48 CFR 225.7703-3 - Evaluating offers.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 3 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Evaluating offers. 225... Iraq or Afghanistan 225.7703-3 Evaluating offers. (a) Evaluate offers submitted in response to... Afghanistan, as follows: (1) If the low offer is an offer of a product or service from Iraq or Afghanistan...

Why do patients decline participation in offered pulmonary rehabilitation?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mathar, Helle; Fastholm, Pernille; Lange, Peter

2017-01-01

of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and among stable patients attending an outpatient clinic. Participants: Patients who decline participation in offered pulmonary rehabilitation, who speak Danish, who are able to give informed consent and to participate in a 1-hour interview. Method: The research...... question was answered through interviews with 19 patients. Data Analysis: The interviews were recorded and transcribed verbatim. The transcripts were analyzed using inductive content analysis. The transcripts were condensed; categories were developed providing different types of explanations for declining...

Revealing the underlying drivers of disaster risk: a global analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Peduzzi, Pascal

2017-04-01

Disasters events are perfect examples of compound events. Disaster risk lies at the intersection of several independent components such as hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Understanding the weight of each component requires extensive standardisation. Here, I show how footprints of past disastrous events were generated using GIS modelling techniques and used for extracting population and economic exposures based on distribution models. Using past event losses, it was possible to identify and quantify a wide range of socio-politico-economic drivers associated with human vulnerability. The analysis was applied to about nine thousand individual past disastrous events covering earthquakes, floods and tropical cyclones. Using a multiple regression analysis on these individual events it was possible to quantify each risk component and assess how vulnerability is influenced by various hazard intensities. The results show that hazard intensity, exposure, poverty, governance as well as other underlying factors (e.g. remoteness) can explain the magnitude of past disasters. Analysis was also performed to highlight the role of future trends in population and climate change and how this may impacts exposure to tropical cyclones in the future. GIS models combined with statistical multiple regression analysis provided a powerful methodology to identify, quantify and model disaster risk taking into account its various components. The same methodology can be applied to various types of risk at local to global scale. This method was applied and developed for the Global Risk Analysis of the Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR). It was first applied on mortality risk in GAR 2009 and GAR 2011. New models ranging from global assets exposure and global flood hazard models were also recently developed to improve the resolution of the risk analysis and applied through CAPRA software to provide probabilistic economic risk assessments such as Average Annual Losses (AAL

Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

Science.gov (United States)

Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

2016-04-01

Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

2016-01-01

Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Prayogo, Galang Sandy, E-mail: gasandylang@live.com; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Diponegoro University, Semarang (Indonesia); Kim, Seon Jin [Department of Mechanical & Automotive Engineering of Pukyong National University (Korea, Republic of)

2016-04-19

Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

The development of a 3D risk analysis method.

Science.gov (United States)

I, Yet-Pole; Cheng, Te-Lung

2008-05-01

Much attention has been paid to the quantitative risk analysis (QRA) research in recent years due to more and more severe disasters that have happened in the process industries. Owing to its calculation complexity, very few software, such as SAFETI, can really make the risk presentation meet the practice requirements. However, the traditional risk presentation method, like the individual risk contour in SAFETI, is mainly based on the consequence analysis results of dispersion modeling, which usually assumes that the vapor cloud disperses over a constant ground roughness on a flat terrain with no obstructions and concentration fluctuations, which is quite different from the real situations of a chemical process plant. All these models usually over-predict the hazardous regions in order to maintain their conservativeness, which also increases the uncertainty of the simulation results. On the other hand, a more rigorous model such as the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model can resolve the previous limitations; however, it cannot resolve the complexity of risk calculations. In this research, a conceptual three-dimensional (3D) risk calculation method was proposed via the combination of results of a series of CFD simulations with some post-processing procedures to obtain the 3D individual risk iso-surfaces. It is believed that such technique will not only be limited to risk analysis at ground level, but also be extended into aerial, submarine, or space risk analyses in the near future.

Analysis of Alternatives for Risk Assessment Methodologies and Tools

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nachtigal, Noel M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). System Analytics; Fruetel, Julia A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Gleason, Nathaniel J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Helms, Jovana [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Imbro, Dennis Raymond [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Sumner, Matthew C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis

2013-10-01

The purpose of this document is to provide a basic overview and understanding of risk assessment methodologies and tools from the literature and to assess the suitability of these methodologies and tools for cyber risk assessment. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) performed this review in support of risk modeling activities performed for the Stakeholder Engagement and Cyber Infrastructure Resilience (SECIR) division of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Office of Cybersecurity and Communications (CS&C). The set of methodologies and tools covered in this document is not intended to be exhaustive; instead, it focuses on those that are commonly used in the risk assessment community. The classification of methodologies and tools was performed by a group of analysts with experience in risk analysis and cybersecurity, and the resulting analysis of alternatives has been tailored to address the needs of a cyber risk assessment.

The effects of universally offered parenting interventions for parents with infants: A systematic review

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pontoppidan, Maiken; Klest, Sihu K; Patras, Joshua

2016-01-01

and supplemented by grey and hand search. Risk of bias was assessed, and effect sizes were calculated. Participants: Inclusion criteria were: 1) Randomized controlled trials of structured, psychosocial interventions offered to a universal population of parents with infants 0-12 months old in western OECD countries...

Comparative risk analysis for the Rocky Flats Plant integrated project planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jones, M.E.; Shain, D.I.

1994-01-01

The Rocky Flats Plant is developing, with active stakeholder a comprehensive planning strategy that will support transition of the Rocky Flats Plant from a nuclear weapons production facility to site cleanup and final disposition. Final disposition of the Rocky Flats Plant materials and contaminants requires consideration of the interrelated nature of sitewide problems, such as material movement and disposition, facility and land use endstates, costs relative risks to workers and the public, and waste disposition. Comparative Risk Analysis employs both incremental risk and cumulative risk evaluations to compare risks from postulated options or endstates. These postulated options or endstates can be various remedial alternatives, or future endstate uses of federal agency land. Currently, there does not exist any approved methodology that aggregates various incremental risk estimates. Comparative Risk Analysis has been developed to aggregate various incremental risk estimates to develop a site cumulative risk estimate. This paper discusses development of the Comparative Risk Analysis methodology, stakeholder participation and lessons learned from these challenges

Guidance for treatment of variability and uncertainty in ecological risk assessments of contaminated sites

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1998-06-01

Uncertainty is a seemingly simple concept that has caused great confusion and conflict in the field of risk assessment. This report offers guidance for the analysis and presentation of variability and uncertainty in ecological risk assessments, an important issue in the remedial investigation and feasibility study processes. This report discusses concepts of probability in terms of variance and uncertainty, describes how these concepts differ in ecological risk assessment from human health risk assessment, and describes probabilistic aspects of specific ecological risk assessment techniques. The report ends with 17 points to consider in performing an uncertainty analysis for an ecological risk assessment of a contaminated site

Offers

CERN Multimedia

Staff Association

2013-01-01

The « Théâtre de Carouge » offers a 5.- CHF discount for all shows (30.- CHF instead of 35.- CHF) and for the season tickets "Premières représentations" (132.- CHF instead of 162.- CHF) and "Classique" (150.- CHF instead of 180.- CHF). Please send your reservation by email to smills@tcag.ch via your professional email address. Please indicate the date of your reservation, your name and firstname and your telephone number A confirmation will be sent by email. Your membership card will be asked when you collect the tickets. More information on www.tcag.ch and www.tcag.ch/blog/

Risk Assessment for Mobile Systems Through a Multilayered Hierarchical Bayesian Network.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Shancang; Tryfonas, Theo; Russell, Gordon; Andriotis, Panagiotis

2016-08-01

Mobile systems are facing a number of application vulnerabilities that can be combined together and utilized to penetrate systems with devastating impact. When assessing the overall security of a mobile system, it is important to assess the security risks posed by each mobile applications (apps), thus gaining a stronger understanding of any vulnerabilities present. This paper aims at developing a three-layer framework that assesses the potential risks which apps introduce within the Android mobile systems. A Bayesian risk graphical model is proposed to evaluate risk propagation in a layered risk architecture. By integrating static analysis, dynamic analysis, and behavior analysis in a hierarchical framework, the risks and their propagation through each layer are well modeled by the Bayesian risk graph, which can quantitatively analyze risks faced to both apps and mobile systems. The proposed hierarchical Bayesian risk graph model offers a novel way to investigate the security risks in mobile environment and enables users and administrators to evaluate the potential risks. This strategy allows to strengthen both app security as well as the security of the entire system.

Source modelling in seismic risk analysis for nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yucemen, M.S.

1978-12-01

The proposed probabilistic procedure provides a consistent method for the modelling, analysis and updating of uncertainties that are involved in the seismic risk analysis for nuclear power plants. The potential earthquake activity zones are idealized as point, line or area sources. For these seismic source types, expressions to evaluate their contribution to seismic risk are derived, considering all the possible site-source configurations. The seismic risk at a site is found to depend not only on the inherent randomness of the earthquake occurrences with respect to magnitude, time and space, but also on the uncertainties associated with the predicted values of the seismic and geometric parameters, as well as the uncertainty in the attenuation model. The uncertainty due to the attenuation equation is incorporated into the analysis through the use of random correction factors. The influence of the uncertainty resulting from the insufficient information on the seismic parameters and source geometry is introduced into the analysis by computing a mean risk curve averaged over the various alternative assumptions on the parameters and source geometry. Seismic risk analysis is carried for the city of Denizli, which is located in the seismically most active zone of Turkey. The second analysis is for Akkuyu

7 CFR 3560.656 - Incentives offers.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 15 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Incentives offers. 3560.656 Section 3560.656... AGRICULTURE DIRECT MULTI-FAMILY HOUSING LOANS AND GRANTS Housing Preservation § 3560.656 Incentives offers. (a) The Agency will offer a borrower, who submits a prepayment request meeting the conditions of § 3560...

The Total Risk Analysis of Large Dams under Flood Hazards

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yu Chen

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Dams and reservoirs are useful systems in water conservancy projects; however, they also pose a high-risk potential for large downstream areas. Flood, as the driving force of dam overtopping, is the main cause of dam failure. Dam floods and their risks are of interest to researchers and managers. In hydraulic engineering, there is a growing tendency to evaluate dam flood risk based on statistical and probabilistic methods that are unsuitable for the situations with rare historical data or low flood probability, so a more reasonable dam flood risk analysis method with fewer application restrictions is needed. Therefore, different from previous studies, this study develops a flood risk analysis method for large dams based on the concept of total risk factor (TRF used initially in dam seismic risk analysis. The proposed method is not affected by the adequacy of historical data or the low probability of flood and is capable of analyzing the dam structure influence, the flood vulnerability of the dam site, and downstream risk as well as estimating the TRF of each dam and assigning corresponding risk classes to each dam. Application to large dams in the Dadu River Basin, Southwestern China, demonstrates that the proposed method provides quick risk estimation and comparison, which can help local management officials perform more detailed dam safety evaluations for useful risk management information.

Methodology for flood risk analysis for nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wagner, D.P.; Casada, M.L.; Fussell, J.B.

1984-01-01

The methodology for flood risk analysis described here addresses the effects of a flood on nuclear power plant safety systems. Combining the results of this method with the probability of a flood allows the effects of flooding to be included in a probabilistic risk assessment. The five-step methodology includes accident sequence screening to focus the detailed analysis efforts on the accident sequences that are significantly affected by a flood event. The quantitative results include the flood's contribution to system failure probability, accident sequence occurrence frequency and consequence category occurrence frequency. The analysis can be added to existing risk assessments without a significant loss in efficiency. The results of two example applications show the usefulness of the methodology. Both examples rely on the Reactor Safety Study for the required risk assessment inputs and present changes in the Reactor Safety Study results as a function of flood probability

Investment appraisal using quantitative risk analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Johansson, Henrik

2002-07-01

Investment appraisal concerned with investments in fire safety systems is discussed. Particular attention is directed at evaluating, in terms of the Bayesian decision theory, the risk reduction that investment in a fire safety system involves. It is shown how the monetary value of the change from a building design without any specific fire protection system to one including such a system can be estimated by use of quantitative risk analysis, the results of which are expressed in terms of a Risk-adjusted net present value. This represents the intrinsic monetary value of investing in the fire safety system. The method suggested is exemplified by a case study performed in an Avesta Sheffield factory.

Gender Analysis of Risk in Innovation System

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ayinde, Ope; Muchie, Mammo; Abaniyan, E. O.

2011-01-01

the new maize variety. The analytical tools used include descriptive statistics, regression model; risk utility functions and risk parameter analysis. The result showed that invasion by animals, disease and pest, lack of access to credit wind and price fluctuation were the major risk facing the maize......This study analyzed risk by gender in innovation in Kwara state, Nigeria, using downy mildew resistant maize production as case study. The study employed primary and secondary data. The primary data were collected from well-structured questionnaires administered to both male and female producing...... producers in the area in the usage of the new innovation. The study also revealed that male producers were willing to take risk in the new maize variety production than the female, while the females were more indifferent to the risk involved in the new maize production variety than males. None...

Offering Incentives from the Outside

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Emmanuel, Nikolas G.

2017-01-01

Incentives offer a good deal of underexplored opportunities to help manage conflict by encouraging political bargaining. This study has two primary objectives. First, it furthers the discussion of how external third parties can help manage conflicts. Second, it offers a typology of the available ...

Multi-Disaster Risk Analysis of Klaten Regency, Central Java, Indonesia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Candra Dian Lukita Tauhid

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Klaten Regency is located in Central Java Province, Indonesia, ranked as 19th most susceptible area in Indonesia. Among of many disasters those take place in Klaten are floods, landslides, and earthquake, which cause damages and loss of lives. Unfortunately, some areas in Klaten Regency are also very vulnerable to the disasters that often contribute severe damage and loss. This paper presents result of risk analysis due to floods, landslides and earthquake disaster at Klaten Regency. Several parameters or criteria are utilized to describe the level of the disaster intensities. The flood susceptibility parameters are the Topographic Wet Index (TWI, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI, permeability and roughness, as proposed by Kafira, et al. (2015. The landslide susceptibility are the geology, slope, elevation, distance from fault, distance from rivers, rainfall and land use, as suggested by Thearith (2009 whereas the earthquake susceptibility was referred to FEMA P-154 by using the Ss and S1. The vulnerability and risk analysis are carried out by referring to the parameters as stipulated by the Chief Regulation of the National Board of Disaster Management No.2 Year 2012 (Perka Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana- BNPB, concerning the parameters being used for the vulnerability analysis, i.e. population density, poverty ratio, land use, and level of Gross Regional Domestic Product. Further spatial analysis of the risk performs the multi-disaster risk map as a combination between the floods, landslides and earthquake disaster risk in Klaten Regency. The established multi-disaster risk map shows the risk level in the Klaten Regency, i.e., 16.31% at very low risk, 33.01% at low risk, 34.49% at medium risk, at 14.22% high risk and 1.97% at very high risk.

48 CFR 570.203-3 - Soliciting offers.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Soliciting offers. 570.203... 570.203-3 Soliciting offers. (a) Solicit offers by providing each prospective offeror a proposed short..., evaluation procedures and submissions of offers. ...

Key attributes of the SAPHIRE risk and reliability analysis software for risk-informed probabilistic applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, Curtis; Knudsen, James; Kvarfordt, Kellie; Wood, Ted

2008-01-01

The Idaho National Laboratory is a primary developer of probabilistic risk and reliability analysis (PRRA) tools, dating back over 35 years. Evolving from mainframe-based software, the current state-of-the-practice has led to the creation of the SAPHIRE software. Currently, agencies such as the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the National Aeronautics and Aerospace Agency, the Department of Energy, and the Department of Defense use version 7 of the SAPHIRE software for many of their risk-informed activities. In order to better understand and appreciate the power of software as part of risk-informed applications, we need to recall that our current analysis methods and solution methods have built upon pioneering work done 30-40 years ago. We contrast this work with the current capabilities in the SAPHIRE analysis package. As part of this discussion, we provide information for both the typical features and special analysis capabilities, which are available. We also present the application and results typically found with state-of-the-practice PRRA models. By providing both a high-level and detailed look at the SAPHIRE software, we give a snapshot in time for the current use of software tools in a risk-informed decision arena

43 CFR 12.715 - Evaluating offers.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 43 Public Lands: Interior 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Evaluating offers. 12.715 Section 12.715... Act-Supplies § 12.715 Evaluating offers. (a) Unless the head of the grantee organization or a designee at a level no lower than the grantee's designated awarding official determines otherwise, the offered...

32 CFR 536.64 - Final offers.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 32 National Defense 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Final offers. 536.64 Section 536.64 National... UNITED STATES Investigation and Processing of Claims § 536.64 Final offers. (a) When claims personnel... less than the amount claimed, a settlement authority will make a written final offer within his or her...

A scenario-based procedure for seismic risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kluegel, J.-U.; Mualchin, L.; Panza, G.F.

2006-12-01

A new methodology for seismic risk analysis based on probabilistic interpretation of deterministic or scenario-based hazard analysis, in full compliance with the likelihood principle and therefore meeting the requirements of modern risk analysis, has been developed. The proposed methodology can easily be adjusted to deliver its output in a format required for safety analysts and civil engineers. The scenario-based approach allows the incorporation of all available information collected in a geological, seismotectonic and geotechnical database of the site of interest as well as advanced physical modelling techniques to provide a reliable and robust deterministic design basis for civil infrastructures. The robustness of this approach is of special importance for critical infrastructures. At the same time a scenario-based seismic hazard analysis allows the development of the required input for probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) as required by safety analysts and insurance companies. The scenario-based approach removes the ambiguity in the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) which relies on the projections of Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) equation. The problems in the validity of G-R projections, because of incomplete to total absence of data for making the projections, are still unresolved. Consequently, the information from G-R must not be used in decisions for design of critical structures or critical elements in a structure. The scenario-based methodology is strictly based on observable facts and data and complemented by physical modelling techniques, which can be submitted to a formalised validation process. By means of sensitivity analysis, knowledge gaps related to lack of data can be dealt with easily, due to the limited amount of scenarios to be investigated. The proposed seismic risk analysis can be used with confidence for planning, insurance and engineering applications. (author)

Electricity distribution. Price control, reliability and customer services: response to OFFER

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-02-01

This document presents the views of the National Consumer Council to a recent consultation paper from OFFER, the body responsible for regulation of the United Kingdom electric power industry. The financial performance of the Regional Electricity Companies (RECs) is reviewed by examining how it relates to the prices paid by domestic consumers. A critical analysis is presented of OFFER's notion of the revision of the existing price control mechanism for the distribution businesses within the RECs. Standards of performance, debt and consumer disconnection are also examined. (UK)

Ontology-based specification, identification and analysis of perioperative risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Uciteli, Alexandr; Neumann, Juliane; Tahar, Kais; Saleh, Kutaiba; Stucke, Stephan; Faulbrück-Röhr, Sebastian; Kaeding, André; Specht, Martin; Schmidt, Tobias; Neumuth, Thomas; Besting, Andreas; Stegemann, Dominik; Portheine, Frank; Herre, Heinrich

2017-09-06

Medical personnel in hospitals often works under great physical and mental strain. In medical decision-making, errors can never be completely ruled out. Several studies have shown that between 50 and 60% of adverse events could have been avoided through better organization, more attention or more effective security procedures. Critical situations especially arise during interdisciplinary collaboration and the use of complex medical technology, for example during surgical interventions and in perioperative settings (the period of time before, during and after surgical intervention). In this paper, we present an ontology and an ontology-based software system, which can identify risks across medical processes and supports the avoidance of errors in particular in the perioperative setting. We developed a practicable definition of the risk notion, which is easily understandable by the medical staff and is usable for the software tools. Based on this definition, we developed a Risk Identification Ontology (RIO) and used it for the specification and the identification of perioperative risks. An agent system was developed, which gathers risk-relevant data during the whole perioperative treatment process from various sources and provides it for risk identification and analysis in a centralized fashion. The results of such an analysis are provided to the medical personnel in form of context-sensitive hints and alerts. For the identification of the ontologically specified risks, we developed an ontology-based software module, called Ontology-based Risk Detector (OntoRiDe). About 20 risks relating to cochlear implantation (CI) have already been implemented. Comprehensive testing has indicated the correctness of the data acquisition, risk identification and analysis components, as well as the web-based visualization of results.

5 CFR 536.104 - Reasonable offer.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Reasonable offer. 536.104 Section 536.104... Provisions § 536.104 Reasonable offer. (a) For the purpose of determining whether grade retention eligibility or entitlement must be terminated under § 536.207 or 536.208, the offer of a position is a reasonable...

Safety analysis and risk assessment handbook

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peterson, V.L.; Colwell, R.G.; Dickey, R.L.

1997-01-01

This Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) provides guidance to the safety analyst at the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site (RFETS) in the preparation of safety analyses and risk assessments. Although the older guidance (the Rocky Flats Risk Assessment Guide) continues to be used for updating the Final Safety Analysis Reports developed in the mid-1980s, this new guidance is used with all new authorization basis documents. With the mission change at RFETS came the need to establish new authorization basis documents for its facilities, whose functions had changed. The methodology and databases for performing the evaluations that support the new authorization basis documents had to be standardized, to avoid the use of different approaches and/or databases for similar accidents in different facilities. This handbook presents this new standardized approach. The handbook begins with a discussion of the requirements of the different types of authorization basis documents and how to choose the one appropriate for the facility to be evaluated. It then walks the analyst through the process of identifying all the potential hazards in the facility, classifying them, and choosing the ones that need to be analyzed further. It then discusses the methods for evaluating accident initiation and progression and covers the basic steps in a safety analysis, including consequence and frequency binning and risk ranking. The handbook lays out standardized approaches for determining the source terms of the various accidents (including airborne release fractions, leakpath factors, etc.), the atmospheric dispersion factors appropriate for Rocky Flats, and the methods for radiological and chemical consequence assessments. The radiological assessments use a radiological open-quotes templateclose quotes, a spreadsheet that incorporates the standard values of parameters, whereas the chemical assessments use the standard codes ARCHIE and ALOHA

Integrated Risk-Capability Analysis under Deep Uncertainty : An ESDMA Approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pruyt, E.; Kwakkel, J.H.

2012-01-01

Integrated risk-capability analysis methodologies for dealing with increasing degrees of complexity and deep uncertainty are urgently needed in an ever more complex and uncertain world. Although scenario approaches, risk assessment methods, and capability analysis methods are used, few organizations

Incentivising flood risk adaptation through risk based insurance premiums : Trade-offs between affordability and risk reduction

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hudson, Paul F.; Botzen, W.J.W.; Feyen, L.; Aerts, Jeroen C.J.H.

2016-01-01

The financial incentives offered by the risk-based pricing of insurance can stimulate policyholder adaptation to flood risk while potentially conflicting with affordability. We examine the trade-off between risk reduction and affordability in a model of public-private flood insurance in France and

Risk analysis for nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koelzer, W.

1983-01-01

The German risk analysis program for nuclear power plants aiming at the man and the environment is presented. An accident consequence model to calculate the radiological impact and the potential health effects is described. (E.G.) [pt

Risk factors for radiation-induced hypothyroidism: A Literature-Based Meta-Analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vogelius, Ivan R; Bentzen, Søren; Maraldo, Maja V

2011-01-01

BACKGROUND: A systematic overview and meta-analysis of studies reporting data on hypothyroidism (HT) after radiation therapy was conducted to identify risk factors for development of HT. METHODS: Published studies were identified from the PubMed and Embase databases and by hand-searching published...... reviews. Studies allowing the extraction of odds ratios (OR) for HT in 1 or more of several candidate clinical risk groups were included. A meta-analysis of the OR for development of HT with or without each of the candidate risk factors was performed. Furthermore, studies allowing the extraction......% risk of HT at a dose of 45 Gy but with considerable variation in the dose response between studies. Chemotherapy and age were not associated with risk of HT in this analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Several clinical risk factors for HT were identified. The risk of HT increases with increasing radiation dose...

Approach to uncertainty in risk analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rish, W.R.

1988-08-01

In the Fall of 1985 EPA's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) initiated a project to develop a formal approach to dealing with uncertainties encountered when estimating and evaluating risks to human health and the environment. Based on a literature review of modeling uncertainty, interviews with ORP technical and management staff, and input from experts on uncertainty analysis, a comprehensive approach was developed. This approach recognizes by design the constraints on budget, time, manpower, expertise, and availability of information often encountered in ''real world'' modeling. It is based on the observation that in practice risk modeling is usually done to support a decision process. As such, the approach focuses on how to frame a given risk modeling problem, how to use that framing to select an appropriate mixture of uncertainty analyses techniques, and how to integrate the techniques into an uncertainty assessment that effectively communicates important information and insight to decision-makers. The approach is presented in this report. Practical guidance on characterizing and analyzing uncertainties about model form and quantities and on effectively communicating uncertainty analysis results is included. Examples from actual applications are presented.

Approach to uncertainty in risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rish, W.R.

1988-08-01

In the Fall of 1985 EPA's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) initiated a project to develop a formal approach to dealing with uncertainties encountered when estimating and evaluating risks to human health and the environment. Based on a literature review of modeling uncertainty, interviews with ORP technical and management staff, and input from experts on uncertainty analysis, a comprehensive approach was developed. This approach recognizes by design the constraints on budget, time, manpower, expertise, and availability of information often encountered in ''real world'' modeling. It is based on the observation that in practice risk modeling is usually done to support a decision process. As such, the approach focuses on how to frame a given risk modeling problem, how to use that framing to select an appropriate mixture of uncertainty analyses techniques, and how to integrate the techniques into an uncertainty assessment that effectively communicates important information and insight to decision-makers. The approach is presented in this report. Practical guidance on characterizing and analyzing uncertainties about model form and quantities and on effectively communicating uncertainty analysis results is included. Examples from actual applications are presented

Failure mode effect analysis and fault tree analysis as a combined methodology in risk management

Science.gov (United States)

Wessiani, N. A.; Yoshio, F.

2018-04-01

There have been many studies reported the implementation of Failure Mode Effect Analysis (FMEA) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) as a method in risk management. However, most of the studies usually only choose one of these two methods in their risk management methodology. On the other side, combining these two methods will reduce the drawbacks of each methods when implemented separately. This paper aims to combine the methodology of FMEA and FTA in assessing risk. A case study in the metal company will illustrate how this methodology can be implemented. In the case study, this combined methodology will assess the internal risks that occur in the production process. Further, those internal risks should be mitigated based on their level of risks.

Meta-analysis: Risk of dry mouth with second generation antidepressants.

Science.gov (United States)

Cappetta, Kiley; Beyer, Chad; Johnson, Jessica A; Bloch, Michael H

2018-06-08

The goal of this meta-analysis was to quantify the risk of dry mouth associated with commonly prescribed antidepressant agents and examine the potential implications of medication class, dose, and pharmacodynamics and dose on risk of treatment-induced dry mouth. A PubMed search was conducted to identify double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trials examining the efficacy and tolerability of second generation antidepressant medications for adults with depressive disorders, anxiety disorders, and OCD. A random-effects meta-analysis was used to quantify the pooled risk ratio of treatment-emergent dry mouth with second generation antidepressants compared to placebo. Stratified subgroup analysis and meta-regression was utilized to further examine the effects antidepressant agent, class, dosage, indication, and receptor affinity profile on the measured risk of dry mouth. 99 trials involving 20,868 adults. SNRIs (Relative Risk (RR)=2.24, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.95-2.58, z=11.2, pz=5.8, pz=10.32, pz=5.85, pz=3.26, p=0.001) and Alpha-2 (PE=0.49, 95% CI: 0.22-0.75, z=3.64, pz=2.10, p<0.05) was significantly associated with increased risk of dry mouth. The current meta-analysis suggests that SSRIs, SNRIs, and atypical antidepressants are all associated with varying degrees of increased risk of dry mouth. SNRIs were associated with a significantly greater risk of dry mouth compared to SSRIs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Factors associated with willingness to accept a routine offer of HIV test in a large referral hospital in Western Kenya.

Science.gov (United States)

Mangeni, J N; Ballidawa, J B; Ndege, S

2012-03-01

Although Voluntary Counseling and Testing (VCT) has existed for more than 10 years, majority of Kenyans still do not know their HIV status, thus necessitating the introduction of other testing strategies to increase the number of people taking the test. The routine offer of an HIV test to all patients in health-care settings has been proposed to increase access to care. The main objective of this study was to identify factors associated with willingness to accept a routine offer of an HIV test. This was a cross sectional study. The Setting was in the Outpatient department at a large Referral Hospital in Western Kenya. A total of 384 adult patients (both males and females) were recruited using systematic random sampling. Information was collected on basic socio demographic characteristics, knowledge about the routine offer of an HIV test, attitudes towards the testing and HIV testing practise. Of the 384 respondents, 64.3% were unaware about the routine offer of HIV testing in Health facilities. Multivariate analysis identified the main predictors of willingness to accept an HIV test offered in hospital as the age (OR 3.7, C.I 0.068-1.075), level of education (OR 3.4, C.I 0.186-62.602), Knowledge about the routine HIV testing (OR 4.6,C.I 2.118-9.847), self-perception of HIV risk (OR 8.4,C.I 3.424-20.496) and attitude towards routine offer of HIV testing (OR 9.2, C.I 0.042-0.284). There is a need to come up with tailored training on the routine offer of an HIV test and devising strategies to address the main factors that influence the decision for patients to test as identified above.

46 CFR 201.144 - Offer of proof.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 46 Shipping 8 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Offer of proof. 201.144 Section 201.144 Shipping... PROCEDURE Evidence (Rule 14) § 201.144 Offer of proof. An offer of proof made in connection with an... accompany the record as the offer of proof. ...

RISK ANALYSIS IN MILK PROCESSING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

I. PIRVUTOIU

2008-05-01

Full Text Available This paper aimed to evaluate Risk bankruptcy using “Score Method” based on Canon and Holder’s Model. The data were collected from the Balance Sheet and Profit and Loss Account for the period 2005-2007, recorded by a Meat processing Plant (Rador Commercial Company .The study has put in evidence the financial situation of the company,the level of the main financial ratios fundamenting the calculation of Z score function value in the three years The low values of Z score function recorded every year reflects that the company is still facing backruptcy. However , the worst situation was recorded in the years 2005 and 2006, when baknruptcy risk was ranging between 70 – 80 % . In the year 2007, the risk bankruptcy was lower, ranging between 50-70 % , as Z function recorded a value lower than 4 .For Meat processing companies such an analysis is compulsory at present as long as business environment is very risky in our country.

Offers

CERN Multimedia

Association du personnel

2010-01-01

THEATRE FORUM DE MEYRIN 1, place des Cinq-Continents 1217 Meyrin    Special offer for members of the Staff Association: Reduced ticket prices for the play Love is my sin (in English) from 15 to 17 March at 8.30pm http://www.forum-meyrin.ch/main.php?page=119&s=12   First category: 37 CHF instead of 46 CHF Second category (seats towards the sides): 30 CHF instead of 38 CHF Please present your CERN card and your Staff Association membership card at the ticket office. Ticket reservation: tel. 022 989 34 34 (from Monday to Friday 2pm to 6pm) or e-mail : billetterie@forum-meyrin.ch  

Offer

CERN Document Server

Staff Association

2011-01-01

DETAILS OF THE AGREEMENT WITH BCGE The BCGE Business partner programme devised for members of the CERN Staff Association offers personalized banking solutions with preferential conditions. The advantages are linked to salary accounts (free account keeping, internet banking, free Maestro and credit cards, etc.), mortgage lending, retirement planning, investment, credit, etc. The details of the programme and the preferential conditions are available on the Staff Association web site and from the secretariat (http://cern.ch/association/en/OtherActivities/BCGE.html). To benefit from these advantages, you will need to fill in the form available on our site, which must then be stamped by the Staff Association as proof that you are a paid-up member.  

CAN ACCOUNTING INFORMATION ACT AS A PROXY FOR EX ANTE UNCERTAINTY IN INITIAL PUBLIC OFFERINGS?

OpenAIRE

Gumanti, Tatang Ary

2003-01-01

This paper reviews and summarizes previous works and the rationale for the proposition that accounting information is in fact value relevant in the determination of an initial public offering IPO).Theoretical and empirical evidence has indicated that certain accounting measures can he used as proxies for total firm risk, that is, they could determine the riskiness of a corporation. The literature also advocates that accounting information is relevant in determining the value and thus the risk...

New offer for our members

CERN Document Server

Staff Association

2018-01-01

Evolution 2, your specialist for Outdoor Adventures Be it for a ski lesson, a parachute jump or for a mountain bike descent, come live an unforgettable experience with our outdoor specialists. Benefit from a 10 % discount on all activities: Offer is open to SA members and their family members living in the same household, upon presentation of the membership card. Offer available for all bookings made between 1 June 2018 and 30 May 2019. Offer available on all the Evoltion2 sites. A wide range of summer and winter activities. More information on http://evolution2.com/ Contact and reservation : +33 (0)4.50.02.63.35 management@evolution2.com

Quantitative risk analysis preoperational of gas pipeline

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Manfredi, Carlos; Bispo, Gustavo G.; Esteves, Alvaro [Gie S.A., Buenos Aires (Argentina)

2009-07-01

The purpose of this analysis is to predict how it can be affected the individual risk and the public's general security due to the operation of a gas pipeline. In case that the single or social risks are considered intolerable, compared with the international standards, to be recommended measures of mitigation of the risk associated to the operation until levels that can be considered compatible with the best practices in the industry. The quantitative risk analysis calculates the probability of occurrence of an event based on the frequency of occurrence of the same one and it requires a complex mathematical treatment. The present work has as objective to develop a calculation methodology based on the previously mentioned publication. This calculation methodology is centered in defining the frequencies of occurrence of events, according to representative database of each case in study. Besides, it settles down the consequences particularly according to the considerations of each area and the different possibilities of interferences with the gas pipeline in study. For each one of the interferences a typical curve of ignition probabilities is developed in function from the distance to the pipe. (author)

Risk and Interdependencies in Critical Infrastructures A Guideline for Analysis

CERN Document Server

Utne, Ingrid; Vatn, Jørn

2012-01-01

Today’s society is completely dependent on critical networks such as  water supply, sewage, electricity, ICT and transportation. Risk and vulnerability analyses are needed to grasp the impact of threats and hazards. However, these become quite complex as there are strong interdependencies both within and between infrastructure systems. Risk and Interdependencies in Critical Infrastructures: A  guideline for analysis provides methods for analyzing risks and interdependencies of critical infrastructures.  A number of analysis approaches are described and are adapted to each of these infrastructures. Various approaches are also revised, and all are supported by several examples and illustrations. Particular emphasis is given to the analysis of various interdependencies that often exist between the infrastructures.  Risk and Interdependencies in Critical Infrastructures: A  guideline for analysis provides a good tool to identify the hazards that are threatening your infrastructures, and will enhance the un...

WE-B-BRC-02: Risk Analysis and Incident Learning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fraass, B.

2016-01-01

Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. We therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation oncology

WE-B-BRC-02: Risk Analysis and Incident Learning

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fraass, B. [Cedars Sinai Medical Center (United States)

2016-06-15

Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. We therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation oncology

Analysis of interactions among barriers in project risk management

Science.gov (United States)

Dandage, Rahul V.; Mantha, Shankar S.; Rane, Santosh B.; Bhoola, Vanita

2018-03-01

In the context of the scope, time, cost, and quality constraints, failure is not uncommon in project management. While small projects have 70% chances of success, large projects virtually have no chance of meeting the quadruple constraints. While there is no dearth of research on project risk management, the manifestation of barriers to project risk management is a less dwelt topic. The success of project management is oftentimes based on the understanding of barriers to effective risk management, application of appropriate risk management methodology, proactive leadership to avoid barriers, workers' attitude, adequate resources, organizational culture, and involvement of top management. This paper represents various risk categories and barriers to risk management in domestic and international projects through literature survey and feedback from project professionals. After analysing the various modelling methods used in project risk management literature, interpretive structural modelling (ISM) and MICMAC analysis have been used to analyse interactions among the barriers and prioritize them. The analysis indicates that lack of top management support, lack of formal training, and lack of addressing cultural differences are the high priority barriers, among many others.

Risk analysis for earth dam overtopping

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mo Chongxun

2008-06-01

Full Text Available In this paper, a model of overtopping risk under the joint effects of floods and wind waves, which is based on risk analysis theory and takes into account the uncertainties of floods, wind waves, reservoir capacity and discharge capacity of the spillway, is proposed and applied to the Chengbihe Reservoir in Baise City in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. The simulated results indicate that the flood control limiting level can be raised by 0.40 m under the condition that the reservoir overtopping risk is controlled within a mean variance of 5×10−6. As a result, the reservoir storage will increase to 16 million m3 and electrical energy generation and other functions of the reservoir will also increase greatly.

Essays on Systemic Risk : An analysis from multiple perspectives

NARCIS (Netherlands)

S. Muns (Sander)

2016-01-01

markdownabstractThis thesis is about systemic risk in the financial sector. It considers several aspects of systemic risk. It is a building block for an analysis of the impact of systemic risk on the real economy. It appears that stocks in the financial industry show a strong interdependence

Quantitative risk analysis as a basis for emergency planning

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yogui, Regiane Tiemi Teruya [Bureau Veritas do Brasil, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Macedo, Eduardo Soares de [Instituto de Pesquisas Tecnologicas (IPT), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

2009-07-01

Several environmental accidents happened in Brazil and in the world during the 70's and 80's. This strongly motivated the preparation for emergencies in the chemical and petrochemical industries. Environmental accidents affect the environment and the communities that are neighbor to the industrial facilities. The present study aims at subsidizing and providing orientation to develop Emergency Planning from the data obtained on Quantitative Risk Analysis, elaborated according to the Technical Standard P4.261/03 from CETESB (Sao Paulo Environmental Agency). It was observed, during the development of the research, that the data generated on these studies need a complementation and a deeper analysis, so that it is possible to use them on the Emergency Plans. The main issues that were analyzed and discussed on this study were the reevaluation of hazard identification for the emergency plans, the consequences and vulnerability analysis for the response planning, the risk communication, and the preparation to respond to the emergencies of the communities exposed to manageable risks. As a result, the study intends to improve the interpretation and use of the data deriving from the Quantitative Risk Analysis to develop the emergency plans. (author)

Isokinetic strength assessment offers limited predictive validity for detecting risk of future hamstring strain in sport: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Green, Brady; Bourne, Matthew N; Pizzari, Tania

2018-03-01

To examine the value of isokinetic strength assessment for predicting risk of hamstring strain injury, and to direct future research into hamstring strain injuries. Systematic review. Database searches for Medline, CINAHL, Embase, AMED, AUSPORT, SPORTDiscus, PEDro and Cochrane Library from inception to April 2017. Manual reference checks, ahead-of-press and citation tracking. Prospective studies evaluating isokinetic hamstrings, quadriceps and hip extensor strength testing as a risk factor for occurrence of hamstring muscle strain. Independent search result screening. Risk of bias assessment by independent reviewers using Quality in Prognosis Studies tool. Best evidence synthesis and meta-analyses of standardised mean difference (SMD). Twelve studies were included, capturing 508 hamstring strain injuries in 2912 athletes. Isokinetic knee flexor, knee extensor and hip extensor outputs were examined at angular velocities ranging 30-300°/s, concentric or eccentric, and relative (Nm/kg) or absolute (Nm) measures. Strength ratios ranged between 30°/s and 300°/s. Meta-analyses revealed a small, significant predictive effect for absolute (SMD=-0.16, P=0.04, 95% CI -0.31 to -0.01) and relative (SMD=-0.17, P=0.03, 95% CI -0.33 to -0.014) eccentric knee flexor strength (60°/s). No other testing speed or strength ratio showed statistical association. Best evidence synthesis found over half of all variables had moderate or strong evidence for no association with future hamstring injury. Despite an isolated finding for eccentric knee flexor strength at slow speeds, the role and application of isokinetic assessment for predicting hamstring strain risk should be reconsidered, particularly given costs and specialised training required. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Risk analysis of radioactive waste management systems in Germany

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wingender, H.J.

1978-01-01

Within the scope of a system study, ''Radioactive wastes in the Federal Republic of Germany,'' performed from 1974 through 1976, the questions of risk assessment were investigated. A risk analysis of a high-level waste (HLW) management system was performed. The results of the HLW tank storage are that the risk expectation value is 700 nJ/kg x RBE (7 x 10 -5 rem) per year for atmospheric release. The discussion of the main contributing accidents shows the possibility of reducing the risk by a technical means. A qualitative comparison on the release basis with the results of the WASH-1400 report shows significant differences that can be explained by the different methodologies applied. The risk analysis activities have led to a comprehensive risk assessment project, which was recently started. The projected includes research and development tasks concerning nuclide migration and transport to the ecosphere, nuclide mobilization by various mechanisms, methodology problems, data collection, computer code development, as well as risk analyses of waste management facilities. It is intended to round off the project with risk analyses of spent fuel element transport, storage, and reprocessing

33 CFR 5.37 - Offer of facilities.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Offer of facilities. 5.37 Section... GUARD AUXILIARY § 5.37 Offer of facilities. Any member of the Auxiliary desiring to place a vessel... in such communication which facility is offered. Except in emergencies, an offer to the Coast Guard...

45 CFR 81.85 - Offer of proof.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Offer of proof. 81.85 Section 81.85 Public Welfare... 80 OF THIS TITLE Hearing Procedures § 81.85 Offer of proof. An offer of proof made in connection with... identification and shall accompany the record as the offer of proof. ...

49 CFR 604.43 - Offer of proof.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 49 Transportation 7 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Offer of proof. 604.43 Section 604.43..., DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION CHARTER SERVICE Hearings. § 604.43 Offer of proof. A party whose evidence has... respond to the offer of proof, may offer the evidence on the record when filing an appeal. ...

Special offer

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Staff Association

2010-01-01

Special offer for members of the Staff Association and their families 10% reduction on all products in the SEPHORA shop (sells perfume, beauty products etc.) in Val Thoiry ALL YEAR ROUND. Plus 20% reduction during their “vente privée”* three or four times a year. Simply present your Staff Association membership card when you make your purchase. * next “vente privée” from 24th to 29th May 2010  

Risk analysis tools for force protection and infrastructure/asset protection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jaeger, C.D.; Duggan, R.A.; Paulus, W.K.

1998-01-01

The Security Systems and Technology Center at Sandia National Laboratories has for many years been involved in the development and use of vulnerability assessment and risk analysis tools. In particular, two of these tools, ASSESS and JTS, have been used extensively for Department of Energy facilities. Increasingly, Sandia has been called upon to evaluate critical assets and infrastructures, support DoD force protection activities and assist in the protection of facilities from terrorist attacks using weapons of mass destruction. Sandia is involved in many different activities related to security and force protection and is expanding its capabilities by developing new risk analysis tools to support a variety of users. One tool, in the very early stages of development, is EnSURE, Engineered Surety Using the Risk Equation. EnSURE addresses all of the risk equation and integrates the many components into a single, tool-supported process to help determine the most cost-effective ways to reduce risk. This paper will briefly discuss some of these risk analysis tools within the EnSURE framework

An Evaluation with Respect to e-Learning and Economic Analysis of the Graduate Program Offered in Anadolu University’s Institute of Educational Sciences

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eren KESIM

2005-01-01

Full Text Available An Evaluation with Respect to e-Learning and Economic Analysis of the Graduate Program Offered in Anadolu University’s Institute of Educational Sciences Prof. Dr. Coskun BAYRAK Anadolu University Eskisehir, TURKEY Res. Ass. Eren KESIM Anadolu University Eskisehir, TURKEY ABSTRACT In this study, an e-learning platform was formed to enable school teachers and administrators to attend graduate programs in the field of educational administration, supervision, planning and economics. In this framework, for the non-thesis educational administration, supervision, planning and economics graduate programs to be conducted in the Institute of Educational Sciences in Anadolu University with using the e-learning method, cost of technical infrastructure for e-learning method, unit costs of students attending a program, cost advantage per credit and time advantage between e-learning and formal education were calculated. In addition, profitability of educational investment in e-learning and application of e-learning were discussed. A descriptive research method is used in the study. Research universe is the students, attending educational administration supervision planning and economics graduate program in Anadolu University’s Institute of Educational Sciences in the 2003-2004 academic year. Universe but not sampling, was used as the research universe in this study. In evaluation and economic analysis of the e-learning model, inflation rate and risk free rate of interest variables are used as the main variables. The value of annually compound rate of nine months Treasury bill (29.90 %, opened bids on November 4, 2003 was used as the risk free rate of interest in the economic analysis. In the economic analysis of the non thesis web based application model of educational administration, supervision, planning and economics program as an educational investment, five year present values of discount rates were calculated according to the %29.90 discount rate value

Operational Risk Management A Practical Approach to Intelligent Data Analysis

CERN Document Server

Kenett, Ron

2010-01-01

The book will introduce modern Operational Risk (OpR) Management and illustrates the various sources of OpR assessment and OpR mitigation. This book discusses how various data sources can be integrated and analyzed and how OpR is synergetic to other risk management activities such as Financial Risk Management and Internationalization. The topics will include state of the art technology such as semantic analysis, ontology engineering, data mining and statistical analysis.

A decision analytical cost analysis of offering ECV in a UK district general hospital

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Burr Robin

2001-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Objective To determine the care pathways and implications of offering mothers the choice of external cephalic version (ECV at term for singleton babies who present with an uncomplicated breech pregnancy versus assisted breech delivery or elective caesarean. Design A prospective observational audit to construct a decision analysis of uncomplicated full term breech presentations. Setting The North Staffordshire NHS Trust. Subjects All women (n = 176 who presented at full term with a breech baby without complications during July 1995 and June 1997. Main outcome measures The study determined to compare the outcome in terms of the costs and cost consequences for the care pathways that resulted from whether a women chose to accept the offer of ECV or not. All the associated events were then mapped for the two possible pathways. The costs were considered only within the hospital setting, from the perspective of the health care provider up to the point of delivery. Results The additional costs for ECV, assisted breech delivery and elective caesarean over and above a normal birth were £186.70, £425.36 and £1,955.22 respectively. The total expected cost of the respective care pathways for "ECV accepted" and "ECV not accepted" (including the probability of adverse events were £1,452 and £1,828 respectively, that is the cost of delivery through the ECV care pathways is less costly than the non ECV delivery care pathway. Conclusions Implementing an ECV service may yield cost savings in secondary care over and above the traditional delivery methods for breech birth of assisted delivery or caesarean section. The scale of these expected cost savings are in the range of £248 to £376 per patient. This converts to a total expected cost saving of between £43,616 and £44,544 for the patient cohort considered in this study.

Intentional risk management through complex networks analysis

CERN Document Server

Chapela, Victor; Moral, Santiago; Romance, Miguel

2015-01-01

This book combines game theory and complex networks to examine intentional technological risk through modeling. As information security risks are in constant evolution,  the methodologies and tools to manage them must evolve to an ever-changing environment. A formal global methodology is explained  in this book, which is able to analyze risks in cyber security based on complex network models and ideas extracted from the Nash equilibrium. A risk management methodology for IT critical infrastructures is introduced which provides guidance and analysis on decision making models and real situations. This model manages the risk of succumbing to a digital attack and assesses an attack from the following three variables: income obtained, expense needed to carry out an attack, and the potential consequences for an attack. Graduate students and researchers interested in cyber security, complex network applications and intentional risk will find this book useful as it is filled with a number of models, methodologies a...

How much is our fairness worth? The effect of raising stakes on offers by Proposers and minimum acceptable offers in Dictator and Ultimatum Games.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Julie Novakova

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to determine whether people respond differently to low and high stakes in Dictator and Ultimatum Games. We assumed that if we raised the stakes high enough, we would observe more self-orientated behavior because fairness would become too costly, in spite of a possible risk of a higher punishment. METHODS: A questionnaire was completed by a sample of 524 university students of biology. A mixed linear model was used to test the relation between the amount at stake (CZK 20, 200, 2,000, 20,000 and 200,000, i.e., approximately $1-$10,000 and the shares, as well as the subjects' gender and the design of the study (single vs. multiple games for different amounts. RESULTS: We have discovered a significant relationship between the amount at stake and the minimum acceptable offer in the Ultimatum Game and the proposed shares in both Ultimatum and Dictator Games (p = 0.001, p<0.001, p = 0.0034. The difference between playing a single game or more games with several amounts at stake did not influence the relation between the stakes and the offered and minimum acceptable shares. Women proved significantly more generous than men in their offers in the Dictator Game (p = 0.007. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that people's behavior in the Dictator and Ultimatum Games depends on the amount at stake. The players tended to lower their relative proposed shares, as well as their relative minimum acceptable offers. We propose that the Responders' sense of equity and fair play depends on the stakes because of the costs of maintaining fairness. However, our results also suggest that the price of fairness is very high and that it is very difficult, probably even impossible, to buy the transition of Homo sociologicus into Homo economicus.

Arenal-type pyroclastic flows: A probabilistic event tree risk analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Meloy, Anthony F.

2006-09-01

A quantitative hazard-specific scenario-modelling risk analysis is performed at Arenal volcano, Costa Rica for the newly recognised Arenal-type pyroclastic flow (ATPF) phenomenon using an event tree framework. These flows are generated by the sudden depressurisation and fragmentation of an active basaltic andesite lava pool as a result of a partial collapse of the crater wall. The deposits of this type of flow include angular blocks and juvenile clasts, which are rarely found in other types of pyroclastic flow. An event tree analysis (ETA) is a useful tool and framework in which to analyse and graphically present the probabilities of the occurrence of many possible events in a complex system. Four event trees are created in the analysis, three of which are extended to investigate the varying individual risk faced by three generic representatives of the surrounding community: a resident, a worker, and a tourist. The raw numerical risk estimates determined by the ETA are converted into a set of linguistic expressions (i.e. VERY HIGH, HIGH, MODERATE etc.) using an established risk classification scale. Three individually tailored semi-quantitative risk maps are then created from a set of risk conversion tables to show how the risk varies for each individual in different areas around the volcano. In some cases, by relocating from the north to the south, the level of risk can be reduced by up to three classes. While the individual risk maps may be broadly applicable, and therefore of interest to the general community, the risk maps and associated probability values generated in the ETA are intended to be used by trained professionals and government agencies to evaluate the risk and effectively manage the long-term development of infrastructure and habitation. With the addition of fresh monitoring data, the combination of both long- and short-term event trees would provide a comprehensive and consistent method of risk analysis (both during and pre-crisis), and as such

Analysis of human error and organizational deficiency in events considering risk significance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Yong Suk; Kim, Yoonik; Kim, Say Hyung; Kim, Chansoo; Chung, Chang Hyun; Jung, Won Dea

2004-01-01

In this study, we analyzed human and organizational deficiencies in the trip events of Korean nuclear power plants. K-HPES items were used in human error analysis, and the organizational factors by Jacobs and Haber were used for organizational deficiency analysis. We proposed the use of CCDP as a risk measure to consider risk information in prioritizing K-HPES items and organizational factors. Until now, the risk significance of events has not been considered in human error and organizational deficiency analysis. Considering the risk significance of events in the process of analysis is necessary for effective enhancement of nuclear power plant safety by focusing on causes of human error and organizational deficiencies that are associated with significant risk

Analysis of risk assessment methods for goods trucking

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yunyazova A.O.

2018-04-01

Full Text Available the article considers models of risk assessment that can be applied to cargo transportation, for forecasting possible damage in the form of financial and material costs in order to reduce the percentage of probability of their occurrence. The analysis of risk by the method «Criterion. Event. Rule" is represented. This method is based on the collection of information by various methods, assigning an assessment to the identified risks, ranking and formulating a report on the analysis. It can be carried out as a fully manual mechanical method of information collecting and performing calculations or can be brought to an automated level from data collection to the delivery of finished results (but in this case some nuances that could significantly influence the outcome of the analysis can be ignored. The expert method is of particular importance, since it relies directly on human experience. In this case, a special role is played by the human factor. The collection of information and the assigned assessments to risk groups depend on the extent to which experts agree on this issue. The smaller the fluctuations in the values ​​of the estimates of the experts, the more accurate and optimal the results will be.

Cable Hot Shorts and Circuit Analysis in Fire Risk Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

LaChance, Jeffrey; Nowlen, Steven P.; Wyant, Frank

1999-01-01

Under existing methods of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), the analysis of fire-induced circuit faults has typically been conducted on a simplistic basis. In particular, those hot-short methodologies that have been applied remain controversial in regards to the scope of the assessments, the underlying methods, and the assumptions employed. To address weaknesses in fire PRA methodologies, the USNRC has initiated a fire risk analysis research program that includes a task for improving the tools for performing circuit analysis. The objective of this task is to obtain a better understanding of the mechanisms linking fire-induced cable damage to potentially risk-significant failure modes of power, control, and instrumentation cables. This paper discusses the current status of the circuit analysis task

Risk assessment of complex accident scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kluegel, Jens-Uwe

2012-01-01

The use of methods of risk assessment in accidents in nuclear plants is based on an old tradition. The first consistent systematic study is considered to be the Rasmussen Study of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NRC, WASH-1400. Above and beyond the realm of nuclear technology, there is an extensive range of accident, risk and reliability research into technical-administrative systems. In the past, it has been this area of research which has led to the development of concepts of safety precautions of the type also introduced into nuclear technology (barrier concept, defense in depth, single-failure criterion), where they are now taken for granted as trivial concepts. Also for risk analysis, nuclear technology made use of methods (such as event and fault tree analyses) whose origins were outside the nuclear field. One area in which the use of traditional methods of probabilistic safety analysis is encountering practical problems is risk assessment of complex accident scenarios in nuclear technology. A definition is offered of the term 'complex accident scenarios' in nuclear technology. A number of problems are addressed which arise in the use of traditional PSA procedures in risk assessment of complex accident scenarios. Cases of complex accident scenarios are presented to demonstrate methods of risk assessment which allow robust results to be obtained even when traditional techniques of risk analysis are maintained as a matter of principle. These methods are based on the use of conditional risk metrics. (orig.)

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Staff Association

2011-01-01

SPECIAL OFFER FOR OUR MEMBERS Tarif unique Adulte/Enfant Entrée Zone terrestre 19 euros instead of 23 euros Entrée “Zone terrestre + aquatique” 24 euros instead of 31 euros Free for children under 3, with limited access to the attractions. Walibi Rhône-Alpes is open daily from 22 June to 31 August, and every week end from 3 September until 31 October. Closing of the “zone aquatique” 11 September.

Impact Analysis for Risks in Informatics Systems

OpenAIRE

Baicu, Floarea; Baches, Maria Alexandra

2013-01-01

In this paper are presented methods of impact analysis on informatics system security accidents, qualitative and quantitative methods, starting with risk and informational system security definitions. It is presented the relationship between the risks of exploiting vulnerabilities of security system, security level of these informatics systems, probability of exploiting the weak points subject to financial losses of a company, respectively impact of a security accident on the company. Herewit...

Risk D and D Rapid Prototype: Scenario Documentation and Analysis Tool

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Unwin, Stephen D.; Seiple, Timothy E.

2009-01-01

Report describes process and methodology associated with a rapid prototype tool for integrating project risk analysis and health and safety risk analysis for decontamination and decommissioning projects. The objective of the Decontamination and Decommissioning (D and D) Risk Management Evaluation and Work Sequencing Standardization Project under DOE EM-23 is to recommend or develop practical risk-management tools for decommissioning of nuclear facilities. PNNL has responsibility under this project for recommending or developing computer-based tools that facilitate the evaluation of risks in order to optimize the sequencing of D and D work. PNNL's approach is to adapt, augment, and integrate existing resources rather than to develop a new suite of tools. Methods for the evaluation of H and S risks associated with work in potentially hazardous environments are well-established. Several approaches exist which, collectively, are referred to as process hazard analysis (PHA). A PHA generally involves the systematic identification of accidents, exposures, and other adverse events associated with a given process or work flow. This identification process is usually achieved in a brainstorming environment or by other means of eliciting informed opinion. The likelihoods of adverse events (scenarios) and their associated consequence severities are estimated against pre-defined scales, based on which risk indices are then calculated. A similar process is encoded in various project risk software products that facilitate the quantification of schedule and cost risks associated with adverse scenarios. However, risk models do not generally capture both project risk and H and S risk. The intent of the project reported here is to produce a tool that facilitates the elicitation, characterization, and documentation of both project risk and H and S risk based on defined sequences of D and D activities. By considering alternative D and D sequences, comparison of the predicted risks can

A risk-informed perspective on deterministic safety analysis of nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wan, P.T.

2009-01-01

In this work, the deterministic safety analysis (DSA) approach to nuclear safety is examined from a risk-informed perspective. One objective of safety analysis of a nuclear power plant is to demonstrate via analysis that the risks to the public from events or accidents that are within the design basis of the power plant are within acceptable levels with a high degree of assurance. This nuclear safety analysis objective can be translated into two requirements on the risk estimates of design basis events or accidents: the nominal risk estimate to the public must be shown to be within acceptable levels, and the uncertainty in the risk estimates must be shown to be small on an absolute or relative basis. The DSA approach combined with the defense-in-depth (DID) principle is a simplified safety analysis approach that attempts to achieve the above safety analysis objective in the face of potentially large uncertainties in the risk estimates of a nuclear power plant by treating the various uncertainty contributors using a stylized conservative binary (yes-no) approach, and applying multiple overlapping physical barriers and defense levels to protect against the release of radioactivity from the reactor. It is shown that by focusing on the consequence aspect of risk, the previous two nuclear safety analysis requirements on risk can be satisfied with the DSA-DID approach to nuclear safety. It is also shown the use of multiple overlapping physical barriers and defense levels in the traditional DSA-DID approach to nuclear safety is risk-informed in the sense that it provides a consistently high level of confidence in the validity of the safety analysis results for various design basis events or accidents with a wide range of frequency of occurrence. It is hoped that by providing a linkage between the consequence analysis approach in DSA with a risk-informed perspective, greater understanding of the limitation and capability of the DSA approach is obtained. (author)

Risk factor analysis of equine strongyle resistance to anthelmintics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. Sallé

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Intestinal strongyles are the most problematic endoparasites of equids as a result of their wide distribution and the spread of resistant isolates throughout the world. While abundant literature can be found on the extent of anthelmintic resistance across continents, empirical knowledge about associated risk factors is missing. This study brought together results from anthelmintic efficacy testing and risk factor analysis to provide evidence-based guidelines in the field. It involved 688 horses from 39 French horse farms and riding schools to both estimate Faecal Egg Count Reduction (FECR after anthelmintic treatment and to interview farm and riding school managers about their practices. Risk factors associated with reduced anthelmintic efficacy in equine strongyles were estimated across drugs using a marginal modelling approach. Results demonstrated ivermectin efficacy (96.3% ± 14.5% FECR, the inefficacy of fenbendazole (42.8% ± 33.4% FECR and an intermediate profile for pyrantel (90.3% ± 19.6% FECR. Risk factor analysis provided support to advocate for FEC-based treatment regimens combined with individual anthelmintic dosage and the enforcement of tighter biosecurity around horse introduction. The combination of these measures resulted in a decreased risk of drug resistance (relative risk of 0.57, p = 0.02. Premises falling under this typology also relied more on their veterinarians suggesting practitionners play an important role in the sustainability of anthelmintic usage. Similarly, drug resistance risk was halved in premises with frequent pasture rotation and with stocking rate below five horses/ha (relative risk of 0.53, p < 0.01. This is the first empirical risk factor analysis for anthelmintic resistance in equids. Our findings should guide the implementation of more sustained strongyle management in the field. Keywords: Horse, Nematode, Anthelmintic resistance, Strongyle, Cyathostomin

Marketing strategy to differentiate the offer

OpenAIRE

Miceski, Trajko; Pasovska, Silvana

2013-01-01

The marketing strategy for differentiation of the offers is important and accepted strategy especially by the bigger legal entities. The differentiation of the offers leads to bigger profit and bigger profitability in operation, through targeting of the demand towards the product of the enterprise. The vertical differentiation of the offers is directed towards the quality of the product itself which is observed as a something superior despite the competitive product which is observed as somet...

Stress Analysis in Managing the Region’s Budget Risks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Natalya Pavlovna Pazdnikova

2014-09-01

Full Text Available The article addresses the implementation of budget risk management methods into the practices of governmental authorities. Drawing on the example of a particular region the article aims to demonstrate the possible methods of budget risk management. The authors refine the existing approaches to the notion of risk in its relation to budget system by introducing the notion of “budget risk.” Here the focus is the risk of default of budget spending in full which causes underfunding of territories and decrease in quality of life in the region. The authors have particularized the classification of budget risks and grouped together the criteria and factors which significantly influence the assessment and choice of method to manage budget risks. They hypothesize that budget risk is a financial risk. Therefore, the methods of financial risks management can be applied to budget risks management. The authors suggest a methodological approach to risk assessment based on correlation and regression analysis of program financing. The application of Kendall rank correlation coefficient allowed to assess the efficiency of budget spending on the implementation of state programs in Perm Krai. Two clusters — “Nature management and infrastructure” and “Public security” — turned out to be in the zone of high budget risk. The method of stress analysis, which consists in calculating Value at Risk (VaR, was applied to budget risks that in terms of probability are classified as critical. In order to assess risk as probability rate, the amount of Perm Krai deficit budget was calculated as induced variable from budget revenues and spending. The results demonstrate that contemporary management of public resources in the regions calls for the implementation of new management tools of higher quality and budget risk management is one of them.

A model-based risk management framework

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gran, Bjoern Axel; Fredriksen, Rune

2002-08-15

The ongoing research activity addresses these issues through two co-operative activities. The first is the IST funded research project CORAS, where Institutt for energiteknikk takes part as responsible for the work package for Risk Analysis. The main objective of the CORAS project is to develop a framework to support risk assessment of security critical systems. The second, called the Halden Open Dependability Demonstrator (HODD), is established in cooperation between Oestfold University College, local companies and HRP. The objective of HODD is to provide an open-source test bed for testing, teaching and learning about risk analysis methods, risk analysis tools, and fault tolerance techniques. The Inverted Pendulum Control System (IPCON), which main task is to keep a pendulum balanced and controlled, is the first system that has been established. In order to make risk assessment one need to know what a system does, or is intended to do. Furthermore, the risk assessment requires correct descriptions of the system, its context and all relevant features. A basic assumption is that a precise model of this knowledge, based on formal or semi-formal descriptions, such as UML, will facilitate a systematic risk assessment. It is also necessary to have a framework to integrate the different risk assessment methods. The experiences so far support this hypothesis. This report presents CORAS and the CORAS model-based risk management framework, including a preliminary guideline for model-based risk assessment. The CORAS framework for model-based risk analysis offers a structured and systematic approach to identify and assess security issues of ICT systems. From the initial assessment of IPCON, we also believe that the framework is applicable in a safety context. Further work on IPCON, as well as the experiences from the CORAS trials, will provide insight and feedback for further improvements. (Author)

What can organisational theory offer knowledge translation in healthcare? A thematic and lexical analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Dadich, Ann; Doloswala, Navin

2018-05-10

Despite the relative abundance of frameworks and models to guide implementation science, the explicit use of theory is limited. Bringing together two seemingly disparate fields of research, this article asks, what can organisational theory offer implementation science? This is examined by applying a theoretical lens that incorporates agency, institutional, and situated change theories to understand the implementation of healthcare knowledge into practice. Interviews were conducted with 20 general practitioners (GPs) before and after using a resource to facilitate evidence-based sexual healthcare. Research material was analysed using two approaches - researcher-driven thematic coding and lexical analysis, which was relatively less researcher-driven. The theoretical lens elucidated the complex pathways of knowledge translation. More specifically, agency theory revealed tensions between the GP as agent and their organisations and patients as principals. Institutional theory highlighted the importance of GP-embeddedness within their chosen specialty of general practice; their medical profession; and the practice in which they worked. Situated change theory exposed the role of localised adaptations over time - a metamorphosis. This study has theoretical, methodological, and practical implications. Theoretically, it is the first to examine knowledge translation using a lens premised on agency, institutional, and situated change theories. Methodologically, the study highlights the complementary value of researcher-driven and researcher-guided analysis of qualitative research material. Practically, this study signposts opportunities to facilitate knowledge translation - more specifically, it suggests that efforts to shape clinician practices should accommodate the interrelated influence of the agent and the institution, and recognise that change can be ever so subtle.

Explaining HIV Risk Multiplexity: A Social Network Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Felsher, Marisa; Koku, Emmanuel

2018-04-21

Risk multiplexity (i.e., overlap in drug-use, needle exchange and sexual relations) is a known risk factor for HIV. However, little is known about predictors of multiplexity. This study uses egocentric data from the Colorado Springs study to examine how individual, behavioral and social network factors influence engagement in multiplex risk behavior. Analyses revealed that compared to Whites, Hispanics were significantly more likely to engage in risk multiplexity and Blacks less so. Respondents who were similar to each other (e.g., in terms of race) had significantly higher odds of being in risk multiplex relationships, and respondents' risk perceptions and network size were significantly associated with engaging in multiplex risk behaviors. Findings from interaction analysis showed the effect of knowing someone with HIV on the odds of multiplexity depends partly on whether respondents' know their HIV status. Findings suggest that demographics, HIV behaviors and network factors impact engagement in multiplex risk behaviors, highlighting the need for multi-level interventions aimed at reducing HIV risk behavior.

Dynamic risk analysis using bow-tie approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khakzad, Nima; Khan, Faisal; Amyotte, Paul

2012-01-01

Accident probability estimation is a common and central step to all quantitative risk assessment methods. Among many techniques available, bow-tie model (BT) is very popular because it represent the accident scenario altogether including causes and consequences. However, it suffers a static structure limiting its application in real-time monitoring and probability updating which are key factors in dynamic risk analysis. The present work is focused on using BT approach in a dynamic environment in which the occurrence probability of accident consequences changes. In this method, on one hand, failure probability of primary events of BT, leading to the top event, are developed using physical reliability models, and constantly revised as physical parameters (e.g., pressure, velocity, dimension, etc) change. And, on the other hand, the failure probability of safety barriers of the BT are periodically updated using Bayes’ theorem as new information becomes available over time. Finally, the resulting, updated BT is used to estimate the posterior probability of the consequences which in turn results in an updated risk profile. - Highlights: ► A methodology is proposed to make bow-tie method adapted for dynamic risk analysis. ► Physical reliability models are used to revise the top event. ► Bayes’ theorem is used to update the probability of safety barriers. ► The number of accidents in sequential time intervals is used to form likelihood function. ► The risk profile is updated for varying physical parameters and for different times.

Project Portfolio Risk Identification and Analysis, Considering Project Risk Interactions and Using Bayesian Networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Foroogh Ghasemi

2018-05-01

Full Text Available An organization’s strategic objectives are accomplished through portfolios. However, the materialization of portfolio risks may affect a portfolio’s sustainable success and the achievement of those objectives. Moreover, project interdependencies and cause–effect relationships between risks create complexity for portfolio risk analysis. This paper presents a model using Bayesian network (BN methodology for modeling and analyzing portfolio risks. To develop this model, first, portfolio-level risks and risks caused by project interdependencies are identified. Then, based on their cause–effect relationships all portfolio risks are organized in a BN. Conditional probability distributions for this network are specified and the Bayesian networks method is used to estimate the probability of portfolio risk. This model was applied to a portfolio of a construction company located in Iran and proved effective in analyzing portfolio risk probability. Furthermore, the model provided valuable information for selecting a portfolio’s projects and making strategic decisions.

17 CFR 230.253 - Offering circular.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

.... Repetition of information should be avoided; cross-referencing of information within the document is... COMPLETENESS OF ANY OFFERING CIRCULAR OR OTHER SELLING LITERATURE. THESE SECURITIES ARE OFFERED PURSUANT TO AN...

The prostate cancer risk stratification (ProCaRS) project: Recursive partitioning risk stratification analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rodrigues, George; Lukka, Himu; Warde, Padraig; Brundage, Michael; Souhami, Luis; Crook, Juanita; Cury, Fabio; Catton, Charles; Mok, Gary; Martin, Andre-Guy; Vigneault, Eric; Morris, Jim; Warner, Andrew; Gonzalez Maldonado, Sandra; Pickles, Tom

2013-01-01

Background: The Genitourinary Radiation Oncologists of Canada (GUROC) published a three-group risk stratification (RS) system to assist prostate cancer decision-making in 2001. The objective of this project is to use the ProCaRS database to statistically model the predictive accuracy and clinical utility of a proposed new multi-group RS schema. Methods: The RS analyses utilized the ProCaRS database that consists of 7974 patients from four Canadian institutions. Recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) was utilized to explore the sub-stratification of groups defined by the existing three-group GUROC scheme. 10-fold cross-validated C-indices and the Net Reclassification Index were both used to assess multivariable models and compare the predictive accuracy of existing and proposed RS systems, respectively. Results: The recursive partitioning analysis has suggested that the existing GUROC classification system could be altered to accommodate as many as six separate and statistical unique groups based on differences in BFFS (C-index 0.67 and AUC 0.70). GUROC low-risk patients would be divided into new favorable-low and low-risk groups based on PSA ⩽6 and PSA >6. GUROC intermediate-risk patients can be subclassified into low-intermediate and high-intermediate groups. GUROC high-intermediate-risk is defined as existing GUROC intermediate-risk with PSA >=10 AND either T2b/c disease or T1T2a disease with Gleason 7. GUROC high-risk patients would be subclassified into an additional extreme-risk group (GUROC high-risk AND (positive cores ⩾87.5% OR PSA >30). Conclusions: Proposed RS subcategories have been identified by a RPA of the ProCaRS database

PREDICTION OF DEMAND FOR PRIMARY BOND OFFERINGS USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michal Tkac

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Purpose: Primary bond markets represent an interesting investment opportunity not only for banks, insurance companies, and other institutional investors, but also for individuals looking for capital gains. Since offered securities vary in terms of their rating, industrial classification, coupon, or maturity, demand of buyers for particular offerings often overcomes issued volume and price of given bond on secondary market consequently rises. Investors might be regarded as consumers purchasing required service according to their specific preferences at desired price. This paper aims at analysis of demand for bonds on primary market using artificial neural networks.Design/methodology: We design a multilayered feedforward neural network trained by Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm in order to estimate demand for individual bonds based on parameters of particular offerings. Outcomes obtained by artificial neural network are compared with conventional econometric methods.Findings: Our results indicate that artificial neural network significantly outperformed standard econometric techniques and on examined sample of primary bond offerings achieved considerably better performance in terms of prediction accuracy and mean squared error.Originality: We show that proposed neural network is able to successfully predict demand for primary obligation offerings based on their specifications. Moreover, we identify relevant parameters of issues which are able to considerably affect total demand for given security.  Our findings might not only help investors to detect marketable securities, but also enable issuing entities to increase demand for their bonds in order to decrease their offering price. 

THE ANALYSIS OF RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS WITHIN MANAGEMENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

ROMANESCU MARCEL LAURENTIU

2016-10-01

Full Text Available This article highlights the risk analysis within management, focusing on how a company could practicaly integrate the risks management in the existing leading process. Subsequently, it is exemplified the way of manage risk effectively, which gives numerous advantages to all firms, including improving their decision-making process. All these lead to the conclusion that the degree of risk specific to companies is very high, but if managers make the best decisions then it can diminish it and all business activitiy and its income are not influenced by factors that could disturb in a negative way .

The Mutable Nature of Risk and Acceptability: A Hybrid Risk Governance Framework.

Science.gov (United States)

Wong, Catherine Mei Ling

2015-11-01

This article focuses on the fluid nature of risk problems and the challenges it presents to establishing acceptability in risk governance. It introduces an actor-network theory (ANT) perspective as a way to deal with the mutable nature of risk controversies and the configuration of stakeholders. To translate this into a practicable framework, the article proposes a hybrid risk governance framework that combines ANT with integrative risk governance, deliberative democracy, and responsive regulation. This addresses a number of the limitations in existing risk governance models, including: (1) the lack of more substantive public participation throughout the lifecycle of a project; (2) hijacking of deliberative forums by particular groups; and (3) the treatment of risk problems and their associated stakeholders as immutable entities. The framework constitutes a five-stage process of co-selection, co-design, co-planning, and co-regulation to facilitate the co-production of collective interests and knowledge, build capacities, and strengthen accountability in the process. The aims of this article are twofold: conceptually, it introduces a framework of risk governance that accounts for the mutable nature of risk problems and configuration of stakeholders. In practice, this article offers risk managers and practitioners of risk governance a set of procedures with which to operationalize this conceptual approach to risk and stakeholder engagement. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Prepayment risk, impact on credit products

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dan Costin NIŢESCU

2012-08-01

Full Text Available Credit pricing is always an important aspect of operations of banks, as loans are generally two thirds of bank assets. Therefore, the study of factors influencing a bank customer behavior and their impact on early repayment of loans may have a significant influence in reducing the risk assumed by such unexpected operations.Objective analysis of prepayment risk is to estimate the probability of repayment to better manage its manifestation. The existence of potential customers that use this option exposes the bank to a number of risks, such as interest rate risk, the maturity mismatch risk and liquidity risk.Proper evaluation and forecasting the evolution of this risk can bring great benefits for a credit institution in the management of loan products and customer relationship: lower risk of over-ensure against fixed rate mortgage, a better management of short-term and long term liquidity needs (thus reducing the risk of over-financing can offer customers more competitive pricing (achieved by reducing funding costs due to better assessment and management of risks involved early repayment.

Use-related risk analysis for medical devices based on improved FMEA.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Long; Shuai, Ma; Wang, Zhu; Li, Ping

2012-01-01

In order to effectively analyze and control use-related risk of medical devices, quantitative methodologies must be applied. Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) is a proactive technique for error detection and risk reduction. In this article, an improved FMEA based on Fuzzy Mathematics and Grey Relational Theory is developed to better carry out user-related risk analysis for medical devices. As an example, the analysis process using this improved FMEA method for a certain medical device (C-arm X-ray machine) is described.

Exposure to low-dose radiation and the risk of breast cancer among women with a familial or genetic predisposition: a meta-analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jansen-van der Weide, Marijke C.; Greuter, Marcel J.W.; Pijnappel, Ruud M.; Jansen, Liesbeth; Oosterwijk, Jan C.; Bock, Geertruida H. de

2010-01-01

Women with familial or genetic aggregation of breast cancer are offered screening outside the population screening programme. However, the possible benefit of mammography screening could be reduced due to the risk of radiation-induced tumours. A systematic search was conducted addressing the question of how low-dose radiation exposure affects breast cancer risk among high-risk women. A systematic search was conducted for articles addressing breast cancer, mammography screening, radiation and high-risk women. Effects of low-dose radiation on breast cancer risk were presented in terms of pooled odds ratios (OR). Of 127 articles found, 7 were selected for the meta-analysis. Pooled OR revealed an increased risk of breast cancer among high-risk women due to low-dose radiation exposure (OR = 1.3, 95% CI: 0.9- 1.8). Exposure before age 20 (OR = 2.0, 95% CI: 1.3-3.1) or a mean of ≥5 exposures (OR = 1.8, 95% CI: 1.1-3.0) was significantly associated with a higher radiation-induced breast cancer risk. Low-dose radiation increases breast cancer risk among high-risk women. When using low-dose radiation among high-risk women, a careful approach is needed, by means of reducing repeated exposure, avoidance of exposure at a younger age and using non-ionising screening techniques. (orig.)

An Offer You Cannot Refuse: Obtaining Efficiency and Fairness in Preplay Negotiation Games with Conditional Offers

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Goranko, Valentin; Turrini, Paolo

2013-01-01

. Such offers transform the payoff matrix of the original game and allow for some degree of cooperation between rational players while preserving the non-cooperative nature of the game. We focus on 2-player negotiations games arising in the preplay phase when offers for payments are made conditional...... on a suggested matching offer of the same kind being made in return by the receiver. We study and analyze such bargaining games, obtain results describing their possible solutions and discuss the degrees of efficiency and fairness that can be achieved in such negotiation process depending on whether time...

High-dose chemotherapy for patients with high-risk breast cancer: a clinical and economic assessment using a quality-adjusted survival analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Marino, Patricia; Roché, Henri; Moatti, Jean-Paul

2008-04-01

The benefit of high-dose chemotherapy (HDC) has not been clearly demonstrated. It may offer disease-free survival improvement at the expense of major toxicity and increasing cost. We evaluated the trade-offs between toxicity, relapse, and costs using a quality-adjusted time without symptoms or toxicity (Q-TWiST) analysis. The analysis was conducted in the context of a randomized trial (PEGASE 01) evaluating the benefit of HDC for 314 patients with high-risk breast cancer. A Q-TWiST analysis was first performed to compare HDC with standard chemotherapy. We then used the results of this Q-TWiST analysis to inform a cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) comparison between treatments. Q-TWiST durations were in favor of HDC, whatever the weighting coefficients used for the analysis. This benefit was significant when the weighting coefficient related to the time spent after relapse was low (0.78), HDC offered no benefit. For intermediate values, the results depended on the weighting coefficient attributed to the toxicity period. The incremental cost per QALY ranged from 12,691euro/QALY to 26,439euro/QALY, according to the coefficients used to weight toxicity and relapse. The benefits of HDC outweigh the burdens of treatment for a wide range of utility coefficients. Economic impact is not a barrier to HDC diffusion in this situation. Nevertheless, no significant benefit was demonstrated for a certain range of utility values.

Synthesis of Enterprise and Value-Based Methods for Multiattribute Risk Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kenley, C. Robert; Collins, John W.; Beck, John M.; Heydt, Harold J.; Garcia, Chad B.

2001-01-01

This paper describes a method for performing multiattribute decision analysis to prioritize ap-proaches to handling risks during the development and operation of complex socio-technical systems. The method combines risk categorization based on enterprise views, risk prioritization of the categories based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), and more standard probability-consequence ratings schemes. We also apply value-based testing me-thods used in software development to prioritize risk-handling approaches. We describe a tool that synthesizes the methods and performs a multiattribute analysis of the technical and pro-grammatic risks on the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) enterprise.

Risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Correa Lizarazu, X.

2013-01-01

The power point presentation Colombia risk evaluation experiences, sanitarian regulations evolution, chemical dangers food, biological dangers food, codex alimentarius, trade, industrial effects, dangers identification, data collection and risk profile

The approach to risk analysis in three industries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garrick, B.J.

1991-01-01

It is the purpose of this paper to review how risk and safety analysis is performed in the three major industries of nuclear power, space flight, and chemical and petroleum processes. The underlying reason for such a review is the belief that efficiencies and safety enhancements may result from a greater exchange of risk assessment technology between these industries. The thrust of this discussion related to the engineered systems involved in the three industries. The industries are very different. The chemical industry epitomizes the highly competitive private sector and its bottom-line emphasis; the nuclear power industry is unique by the degree to which it is regulated; and the space industry is essentially a government business just beginning to have commercial implications. Institutional differences are extreme; however, from a societal needs, and their safety implications have a far reaching impact on public opinion and support. In reviewing the risk and safety analysis activities, particular attention is given to the use of such quantitative approaches as probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) as it has evolved in the nuclear power industry

Body mass index and risk of BPH: a meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, S; Mao, Q; Lin, Y; Wu, J; Wang, X; Zheng, X; Xie, L

2012-09-01

Epidemiological studies have reported conflicting results relating obesity to BPH. A meta-analysis of cohort and case-control studies was conducted to pool the risk estimates of the association between obesity and BPH. Eligible studies were retrieved by both computer searches and review of references. We analyzed abstracted data with random effects models to obtain the summary risk estimates. Dose-response meta-analysis was performed for studies reporting categorical risk estimates for a series of exposure levels. A total of 19 studies met the inclusion criteria of the meta-analysis. Positive association with body mass index (BMI) was observed in BPH and lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS) combined group (odds ratio=1.27, 95% confidence intervals 1.05-1.53). In subgroup analysis, BMI exhibited a positive dose-response relationship with BPH/LUTS in population-based case-control studies and a marginal positive association was observed between risk of BPH and increased BMI. However, no association between BPH/LUTS and BMI was observed in other subgroups stratified by study design, geographical region or primary outcome. The overall current literatures suggested that BMI was associated with increased risk of BPH. Further efforts should be made to confirm these findings and clarify the underlying biological mechanisms.

Adversarial risk analysis with incomplete information: a level-k approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Rothschild, Casey; McLay, Laura; Guikema, Seth

2012-07-01

This article proposes, develops, and illustrates the application of level-k game theory to adversarial risk analysis. Level-k reasoning, which assumes that players play strategically but have bounded rationality, is useful for operationalizing a Bayesian approach to adversarial risk analysis. It can be applied in a broad class of settings, including settings with asynchronous play and partial but incomplete revelation of early moves. Its computational and elicitation requirements are modest. We illustrate the approach with an application to a simple defend-attack model in which the defender's countermeasures are revealed with a probability less than one to the attacker before he decides on how or whether to attack. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Risk management method for small photovoltaic plants

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kirova Milena

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Risk management is necessary for achieving the goals of the organization. There are many methods, approaches, and instruments in the literature concerning risk management. However, these are often highly specialized and transferring them to a different field can prove difficult. Therefore, managers often face situations where they have no tools to use for risk management. This is the case with small photovoltaic plants (according to a definition by the Bulgarian State Energy and Water Regulatory Commission small applies to systems with a total installed power of 200 kWp. There are some good practices in the energy field for minimizing risks, but they offer only partial risk prevention and are not sufficient. Therefore a new risk management method needs to be introduced. Small photovoltaic plants offer plenty of advantages in comparison to the other renewable energy sources which makes risk management in their case more important. There is no classification of risks for the exploitation of small photovoltaic systems in the available literature as well as to what degree the damages from those risks could spread. This makes risk analysis and evaluation necessary for obtaining information which could aid taking decisions for improving risk management. The owner of the invested capital takes a decision regarding the degree of acceptable risk for his organization and it must be protected depending on the goals set. Investors in small photovoltaic systems need to decide to what degree the existing risks can influence the goals previously set, the payback of the investment, and what is the acceptable level of damages for the investor. The purpose of this work is to present a risk management method, which currently does not exist in the Bulgaria, so that the risks and the damages that could occur during the exploitation of small photovoltaic plants could be identified and the investment in such technology – justified.

Structural reliability analysis applied to pipeline risk analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gardiner, M. [GL Industrial Services, Loughborough (United Kingdom); Mendes, Renato F.; Donato, Guilherme V.P. [PETROBRAS S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

2009-07-01

Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) of pipelines requires two main components to be provided. These are models of the consequences that follow from some loss of containment incident, and models for the likelihood of such incidents occurring. This paper describes how PETROBRAS have used Structural Reliability Analysis for the second of these, to provide pipeline- and location-specific predictions of failure frequency for a number of pipeline assets. This paper presents an approach to estimating failure rates for liquid and gas pipelines, using Structural Reliability Analysis (SRA) to analyze the credible basic mechanisms of failure such as corrosion and mechanical damage. SRA is a probabilistic limit state method: for a given failure mechanism it quantifies the uncertainty in parameters to mathematical models of the load-resistance state of a structure and then evaluates the probability of load exceeding resistance. SRA can be used to benefit the pipeline risk management process by optimizing in-line inspection schedules, and as part of the design process for new construction in pipeline rights of way that already contain multiple lines. A case study is presented to show how the SRA approach has recently been used on PETROBRAS pipelines and the benefits obtained from it. (author)

Dealing with phenomenological uncertainty in risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Theofanous, T.G.

1994-01-01

The Risk-Oriented Accident Analysis Methodology (ROAAM) is summarized and developed further towards a formal definition. The key ideas behind the methodology and these more formal aspects are also presented and discussed

Risk and safety analysis of nuclear systems

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Lee, John C; McCormick, Norman J

2011-01-01

.... The first half of the book covers the principles of risk analysis, the techniques used to develop and update a reliability data base, the reliability of multi-component systems, Markov methods used...

Approach for seismic risk analysis for CANDU plants in Korea

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, B-S; Kim, T; Kang, S-K [Korea Power Engineering Co., Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Hong, S-Y; Roh, S-R [Korea Electric Power Corp., Taejon (Korea, Republic of). Research Centre

1996-12-31

A seismic risk analysis for CANDU type plants has never been performed. The study presented here suggested that the approach generally applied to LWR type plants could lead to unacceptable result, if directly applied to CANDU plants. This paper presents a modified approach for the seismic risk analysis of CANDU plants. (author). 5 refs., 2 tabs., 2 figs.

LANDSAFE: LANDING SITE RISK ANALYSIS SOFTWARE FRAMEWORK

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Schmidt

2012-08-01

Full Text Available The European Space Agency (ESA is planning a Lunar Lander mission in the 2018 timeframe that will demonstrate precise soft landing at the polar regions of the Moon. To ensure a safe and successful landing a careful risk analysis has to be carried out. This is comprised of identifying favorable target areas and evaluating the surface conditions in these areas. Features like craters, boulders, steep slopes, rough surfaces and shadow areas have to be identified in order to assess the risk associated to a landing site in terms of a successful touchdown and subsequent surface operation of the lander. In addition, global illumination conditions at the landing site have to be simulated and analyzed. The Landing Site Risk Analysis software framework (LandSAfe is a system for the analysis, selection and certification of safe landing sites on the lunar surface. LandSAfe generates several data products including high resolution digital terrain models (DTMs, hazard maps, illumination maps, temperature maps and surface reflectance maps which assist the user in evaluating potential landing site candidates. This paper presents the LandSAfe system and describes the methods and products of the different modules. For one candidate landing site on the rim of Shackleton crater at the south pole of the Moon a high resolution DTM is showcased.

Risk analysis of analytical validations by probabilistic modification of FMEA

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Barends, D.M.; Oldenhof, M.T.; Vredenbregt, M.J.

2012-01-01

Risk analysis is a valuable addition to validation of an analytical chemistry process, enabling not only detecting technical risks, but also risks related to human failures. Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) can be applied, using a categorical risk scoring of the occurrence, detection...... and severity of failure modes, and calculating the Risk Priority Number (RPN) to select failure modes for correction. We propose a probabilistic modification of FMEA, replacing the categorical scoring of occurrence and detection by their estimated relative frequency and maintaining the categorical scoring...... of severity. In an example, the results of traditional FMEA of a Near Infrared (NIR) analytical procedure used for the screening of suspected counterfeited tablets are re-interpretated by this probabilistic modification of FMEA. Using this probabilistic modification of FMEA, the frequency of occurrence...

A Benefit-Risk Analysis Approach to Capture Regulatory Decision-Making: Multiple Myeloma.

Science.gov (United States)

Raju, G K; Gurumurthi, Karthik; Domike, Reuben; Kazandjian, Dickran; Landgren, Ola; Blumenthal, Gideon M; Farrell, Ann; Pazdur, Richard; Woodcock, Janet

2018-01-01

Drug regulators around the world make decisions about drug approvability based on qualitative benefit-risk analysis. In this work, a quantitative benefit-risk analysis approach captures regulatory decision-making about new drugs to treat multiple myeloma (MM). MM assessments have been based on endpoints such as time to progression (TTP), progression-free survival (PFS), and objective response rate (ORR) which are different than benefit-risk analysis based on overall survival (OS). Twenty-three FDA decisions on MM drugs submitted to FDA between 2003 and 2016 were identified and analyzed. The benefits and risks were quantified relative to comparators (typically the control arm of the clinical trial) to estimate whether the median benefit-risk was positive or negative. A sensitivity analysis was demonstrated using ixazomib to explore the magnitude of uncertainty. FDA approval decision outcomes were consistent and logical using this benefit-risk framework. © 2017 American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

[Risk Management: concepts and chances for public health].

Science.gov (United States)

Palm, Stefan; Cardeneo, Margareta; Halber, Marco; Schrappe, Matthias

2002-01-15

Errors are a common problem in medicine and occur as a result of a complex process involving many contributing factors. Medical errors significantly reduce the safety margin for the patient and contribute additional costs in health care delivery. In most cases adverse events cannot be attributed to a single underlying cause. Therefore an effective risk management strategy must follow a system approach, which is based on counting and analysis of near misses. The development of defenses against the undesired effects of errors should be the main focus rather than asking the question "Who blundered?". Analysis of near misses (which in this context can be compared to indicators) offers several methodological advantages as compared to the analysis of errors and adverse events. Risk management is an integral element of quality management.

Postgraduates courses offered to nursing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pedro Jorge Araujo

2011-07-01

Full Text Available Aim: To know the official masters that the Spanish Universities have offered during the academic course 2010/2011.Material and methods: Descriptive observational and transversal court study, in which it has analysed 170 university official masters and in which it has used a questionnaire with a total of 15 questions elaborated for this work.Results: 52 Spanish Universities of the 75 that there is have offered during the academic course 2010/2011 official masters that can realise for graduated in infirmary. By areas, the official masters more offered have been the ones of nutrition and alimentary security. 76,33% of the official masters have a length of 1 academic year. Almost the half of the official masters have an orientation researcher-professional and almost 40% researcher. 62,65% of the masters give of face-to-face way. In 52,1% of the official masters do not realise external practices and 86,2% has continuity with the doctorate.Conclusions: It has seen that it is necessary that expand the number of masters including other fields of study that contribute to a main specialisation of the professionals of the infirmary. An important percentage of official masters give in face-to-face modality, and there is very few offered on-line or to distance.

Hierarchic Analysis Method to Evaluate Rock Burst Risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ming Ji

2015-01-01

Full Text Available In order to reasonably evaluate the risk of rock bursts in mines, the factors impacting rock bursts and the existing grading criterion on the risk of rock bursts were studied. By building a model of hierarchic analysis method, the natural factors, technology factors, and management factors that influence rock bursts were analyzed and researched, which determined the degree of each factor’s influence (i.e., weight and comprehensive index. Then the grade of rock burst risk was assessed. The results showed that the assessment level generated by the model accurately reflected the actual risk degree of rock bursts in mines. The model improved the maneuverability and practicability of existing evaluation criteria and also enhanced the accuracy and science of rock burst risk assessment.

Analysis of labour risks in the Spanish industrial aerospace sector

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

JUAN LAGUARDIA

Full Text Available ABSTRACT Labour risk prevention is an activity integrated within Safety and Hygiene at Work in Spain. In 2003, the Electronic Declaration for Accidents at Work, Delt@ (DELTA was introduced. The industrial aerospace sector is subject to various risks. Our objective is to analyse the Spanish Industrial Aerospace Sector (SIAS using the ACSOM methodology to assess its labour risks and to prioritise preventive actions. The SIAS and the Services Subsector (SS were created and the relevant accident rate data were obtained. The ACSOM method was applied through double contrast (deviation and translocation of the SIAS or SS risk polygon with the considered pattern, accidents from all sectors (ACSOM G or the SIAS. A list of risks was obtained, ordered by action phases. In the SIAS vs. ACSOM G analysis, radiation risks were the worst, followed by overstrains. Accidents caused by living beings were also significant in the SS vs. SIAE, which will be able to be used to improve Risk Prevention. Radiation is the most significant risk in the SIAS and the SS. Preventive actions will be primary and secondary. ACSOM has shown itself to be a valid tool for the analysis of labour risks.

Analysis of labour risks in the Spanish industrial aerospace sector.

Science.gov (United States)

Laguardia, Juan; Rubio, Emilio; Garcia, Ana; Garcia-Foncillas, Rafael

2016-01-01

Labour risk prevention is an activity integrated within Safety and Hygiene at Work in Spain. In 2003, the Electronic Declaration for Accidents at Work, Delt@ (DELTA) was introduced. The industrial aerospace sector is subject to various risks. Our objective is to analyse the Spanish Industrial Aerospace Sector (SIAS) using the ACSOM methodology to assess its labour risks and to prioritise preventive actions. The SIAS and the Services Subsector (SS) were created and the relevant accident rate data were obtained. The ACSOM method was applied through double contrast (deviation and translocation) of the SIAS or SS risk polygon with the considered pattern, accidents from all sectors (ACSOM G) or the SIAS. A list of risks was obtained, ordered by action phases. In the SIAS vs. ACSOM G analysis, radiation risks were the worst, followed by overstrains. Accidents caused by living beings were also significant in the SS vs. SIAE, which will be able to be used to improve Risk Prevention. Radiation is the most significant risk in the SIAS and the SS. Preventive actions will be primary and secondary. ACSOM has shown itself to be a valid tool for the analysis of labour risks.

A Roadmap of Risk Diagnostic Methods: Developing an Integrated View of Risk Identification and Analysis Techniques

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Williams, Ray; Ambrose, Kate; Bentrem, Laura

2004-01-01

...), which is envisioned to be a comprehensive reference tool for risk identification and analysis (RI AND A) techniques. Program Managers (PMs) responsible for developing or acquiring software-intensive systems typically identify risks in different ways...

Is adaptation or transformation needed? Active nanomaterials and risk analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Kuzma, Jennifer; Roberts, John Patrick

2016-07-01

Nanotechnology has been a key area of funding and policy for the United States and globally for the past two decades. Since nanotechnology research and development became a focus and nanoproducts began to permeate the market, scholars and scientists have been concerned about how to assess the risks that they may pose to human health and the environment. The newest generation of nanomaterials includes biomolecules that can respond to and influence their environments, and there is a need to explore whether and how existing risk-analysis frameworks are challenged by such novelty. To fill this niche, we used a modified approach of upstream oversight assessment (UOA), a subset of anticipatory governance. We first selected case studies of "active nanomaterials," that are early in research and development and designed for use in multiple sectors, and then considered them under several, key risk-analysis frameworks. We found two ways in which the cases challenge the frameworks. The first category relates to how to assess risk under a narrow framing of the term (direct health and environmental harm), and the second involves the definition of what constitutes a "risk" worthy of assessment and consideration in decision making. In light of these challenges, we propose some changes for risk analysis in the face of active nanostructures in order to improve risk governance.

SU-F-T-243: Major Risks in Radiotherapy. A Review Based On Risk Analysis Literature

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

López-Tarjuelo, J; Guasp-Tortajada, M; Iglesias-Montenegro, N; Monasor-Denia, P [Servicio de Radiofísica y Protección Radiológica, Consorcio Hospitalario Provincial de Castellón, Castellón de la Plana, España/Spain (Spain); Bouché-Babiloni, A; Morillo-Macías, V; Ferrer-Albiach, C [Servicio de Oncología Radioterápica, Consorcio Hospitalario Provincial de Castellón, Castellón de la Plana, España/Spain (Spain)

2016-06-15

Purpose: We present a literature review of risk analyses in radiotherapy to highlight the most reported risks and facilitate the spread of this valuable information so that professionals can be aware of these major threats before performing their own studies. Methods: We considered studies with at least an estimation of the probability of occurrence of an adverse event (O) and its associated severity (S). They cover external beam radiotherapy, brachytherapy, intraoperative radiotherapy, and stereotactic techniques. We selected only the works containing a detailed ranked series of elements or failure modes and focused on the first fully reported quartile as much. Afterward, we sorted the risk elements according to a regular radiotherapy procedure so that the resulting groups were cited in several works and be ranked in this way. Results: 29 references published between 2007 and February 2016 were studied. Publication trend has been generally rising. The most employed analysis has been the Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA). Among references, we selected 20 works listing 258 ranked risk elements. They were sorted into 31 groups appearing at least in two different works. 11 groups appeared in at least 5 references and 5 groups did it in 7 or more papers. These last sets of risks where choosing another set of images or plan for planning or treating, errors related with contours, errors in patient positioning for treatment, human mistakes when programming treatments, and planning errors. Conclusion: There is a sufficient amount and variety of references for identifying which failure modes or elements should be addressed in a radiotherapy department before attempting a specific analysis. FMEA prevailed, but other studies such as “risk matrix” or “occurrence × severity” analyses can also lead professionals’ efforts. Risk associated with human actions ranks very high; therefore, they should be automated or at least peer-reviewed.

SU-F-T-243: Major Risks in Radiotherapy. A Review Based On Risk Analysis Literature

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

López-Tarjuelo, J; Guasp-Tortajada, M; Iglesias-Montenegro, N; Monasor-Denia, P; Bouché-Babiloni, A; Morillo-Macías, V; Ferrer-Albiach, C

2016-01-01

Purpose: We present a literature review of risk analyses in radiotherapy to highlight the most reported risks and facilitate the spread of this valuable information so that professionals can be aware of these major threats before performing their own studies. Methods: We considered studies with at least an estimation of the probability of occurrence of an adverse event (O) and its associated severity (S). They cover external beam radiotherapy, brachytherapy, intraoperative radiotherapy, and stereotactic techniques. We selected only the works containing a detailed ranked series of elements or failure modes and focused on the first fully reported quartile as much. Afterward, we sorted the risk elements according to a regular radiotherapy procedure so that the resulting groups were cited in several works and be ranked in this way. Results: 29 references published between 2007 and February 2016 were studied. Publication trend has been generally rising. The most employed analysis has been the Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA). Among references, we selected 20 works listing 258 ranked risk elements. They were sorted into 31 groups appearing at least in two different works. 11 groups appeared in at least 5 references and 5 groups did it in 7 or more papers. These last sets of risks where choosing another set of images or plan for planning or treating, errors related with contours, errors in patient positioning for treatment, human mistakes when programming treatments, and planning errors. Conclusion: There is a sufficient amount and variety of references for identifying which failure modes or elements should be addressed in a radiotherapy department before attempting a specific analysis. FMEA prevailed, but other studies such as “risk matrix” or “occurrence × severity” analyses can also lead professionals’ efforts. Risk associated with human actions ranks very high; therefore, they should be automated or at least peer-reviewed.

47 CFR 76.1621 - Equipment compatibility offer.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 47 Telecommunication 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Equipment compatibility offer. 76.1621 Section... MULTICHANNEL VIDEO AND CABLE TELEVISION SERVICE Notices § 76.1621 Equipment compatibility offer. Cable system... offer to supply each subscriber with special equipment that will enable the simultaneous reception of...

The primary relevance of subconsciously offered attitudes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kristiansen, Tore

2015-01-01

) and subconsciously (covertly) offered attitudes – because subconsciously offered attitudes appear to be a driving force in linguistic variation and change in a way that consciously offered attitudes are not. The argument is based on evidence from empirical investigations of attitudes and use in the ‘...

An Analysis of Students Enrolled to an Undergraduate University Course Offered Also Online

Science.gov (United States)

Scarabottolo, Nello

2016-01-01

This paper analyzes the main characteristics of the students enrolled to a three-years undergraduate course on Security of Computer Systems and Networks, offered in traditional, classroom based fashion as well as online at the University of Milan (Italy). This allows to compare classroom and online students from several points of view, and gives…

Zero risk fuel fabrication: a systems analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1979-01-01

Zero risk is a concept used to ensure that system requirements are developed through a systems approach such that the choice(s) among alternatives represents the balanced viewpoints of performance, achievability and risk. Requirements to ensure characteristics such as stringent accountability, low personnel exposure and etc. are needed to guide the development of component and subsystems for future LMFBR fuel supply systems. To establish a consistent and objective set of requirements, RF and M-TMC has initiated a systems requirements analysis activity. This activity pivots on judgement and experience provided by a Task Force representing industrial companies engaged in fuel fabrication in licensed facilities. The Task Force members are listed in Appendix A. Input developed by this group is presented as a starting point for the systems requirements analysis

NASA's Agency-Wide Strategy for Environmental Regulatory Risk Analysis and Communication

Science.gov (United States)

Scroggins, Sharon; Duda, Kristen

2008-01-01

This viewgraph presentation gives an overview of NASA's risk analysis communication programs associated with changing environmental policies. The topics include: 1) NASA Program Transition; 2) Principal Center for Regulatory Risk Analysis and Communication (RRAC PC); and 3) Regulatory Tracking and Communication Process.

48 CFR 619.804-2 - Agency offering.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Agency offering. 619.804-2 Section 619.804-2 Federal Acquisition Regulations System DEPARTMENT OF STATE SOCIOECONOMIC PROGRAMS SMALL... offering. (a) When applicable, this notification shall identify that the offering is in accordance with the...

Dynamic Positioning System (DPS) Risk Analysis Using Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA)

Science.gov (United States)

Thigpen, Eric B.; Boyer, Roger L.; Stewart, Michael A.; Fougere, Pete

2017-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Safety & Mission Assurance (S&MA) directorate at the Johnson Space Center (JSC) has applied its knowledge and experience with Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to projects in industries ranging from spacecraft to nuclear power plants. PRA is a comprehensive and structured process for analyzing risk in complex engineered systems and/or processes. The PRA process enables the user to identify potential risk contributors such as, hardware and software failure, human error, and external events. Recent developments in the oil and gas industry have presented opportunities for NASA to lend their PRA expertise to both ongoing and developmental projects within the industry. This paper provides an overview of the PRA process and demonstrates how this process was applied in estimating the probability that a Mobile Offshore Drilling Unit (MODU) operating in the Gulf of Mexico and equipped with a generically configured Dynamic Positioning System (DPS) loses location and needs to initiate an emergency disconnect. The PRA described in this paper is intended to be generic such that the vessel meets the general requirements of an International Maritime Organization (IMO) Maritime Safety Committee (MSC)/Circ. 645 Class 3 dynamically positioned vessel. The results of this analysis are not intended to be applied to any specific drilling vessel, although provisions were made to allow the analysis to be configured to a specific vessel if required.

Work program analysis - defining the capability/risk plan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hrinivich, W.A.

2004-01-01

Bruce Power has developed and implemented an analysis methodology (Work Program Analysis) to assess and address corporate business risk associated with work group capability. Work Program Analysis is proving to be an excellent tool for identifying and supporting key business decisions facing the line and senior management at Bruce Power. The following describes the methodology, its application and the results achieved. (author)

Risk analysis in the management of urban construction projects from the perspective of the employer and the contractor

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohammad Taghipour

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Imbalance between anticipated and actual progress in the development of urban construction projects suggests that there are many obstacles and risks which not only causes the urban management be unsustainable, but the reconstruction and development of urban space is also seriously threatened. In this study, the library research on issues related to the risk of construction projects was done, then some interviews were conducted with experts and managers informed and involved in the projects, and finally questionnaires were distributed to identify and classify the impact of the risks of the implementation of the construction projects. After analyzing the data, the results indicated that the experts listed the most significant risks as the delays in the payment of contractors' claims and statements due to the lack of handling financial instruments, the governance of relationships rather than rules in the tenders resulting from employer actions, low commitment to the quality of work provided by their subcontractors, failure to complete the detail engineering by foreign contractors on time, weaknesses in contractors' financial resources, and offering lower prices than reasonable by contractors to win the tender. All of these require special attention and other kinds of risks are important at the next level. Finally, the solutions for eliminating or reducing risks in high-risk areas have been offered to provide tranquility for contractors and employers.

Challenges in the vulnerability and risk analysis of critical infrastructures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zio, Enrico

2016-01-01

The objective of this paper is to provide a systematic view on the problem of vulnerability and risk analysis of critical infrastructures. Reflections are made on the inherent complexities of these systems, related challenges are identified and possible ways forward for their analysis and management are indicated. Specifically: the framework of vulnerability and risk analysis is examined in relation to its application for the protection and resilience of critical infrastructures; it is argued that the complexity of these systems is a challenging characteristic, which calls for the integration of different modeling perspectives and new approaches of analysis; examples of are given in relation to the Internet and, particularly, the electric power grid, as representative of critical infrastructures and the associated complexity; the integration of different types of analyses and methods of system modeling is put forward for capturing the inherent structural and dynamic complexities of critical infrastructures and eventually evaluating their vulnerability and risk characteristics, so that decisions on protections and resilience actions can be taken with the required confidence. - Highlights: • The problem of the protection and resilience of CIs is the focus of the work. • The vulnerability and risk analysis framework for this is critically examined. • The complexity of CIs is presented as a challenge for system modeling and analysis. • The integration of different modeling perspectives of analysis is put forward as a solution. • The extension of the analysis framework to new methods for dealing with surprises and black swans is advocated.

Analysis of coastal protection under rising flood risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Megan J. Lickley

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Infrastructure located along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts is exposed to rising risk of flooding from sea level rise, increasing storm surge, and subsidence. In these circumstances coastal management commonly based on 100-year flood maps assuming current climatology is no longer adequate. A dynamic programming cost–benefit analysis is applied to the adaptation decision, illustrated by application to an energy facility in Galveston Bay. Projections of several global climate models provide inputs to estimates of the change in hurricane and storm surge activity as well as the increase in sea level. The projected rise in physical flood risk is combined with estimates of flood damage and protection costs in an analysis of the multi-period nature of adaptation choice. The result is a planning method, using dynamic programming, which is appropriate for investment and abandonment decisions under rising coastal risk.

Risk analysis; Analisis de riesgos

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Baron, J H; Nunez McLeod, J; Rivera, S S [Universidad Nacional de Cuyo, Mendoza (Argentina). Instituto de Capacitacion Especial y Desarrollo de Ingenieria Asistida por Computadora (CEDIAC)

1997-07-01

This book contains a selection of research works performed in the CEDIAC Institute (Cuyo National University) in the area of Risk Analysis, with specific orientations to the subjects of uncertainty and sensitivity studies, software reliability, severe accident modeling, etc. This volume presents important material for all those researches who want to have an insight in the risk analysis field, as a tool to solution several problems frequently found in the engineering and applied sciences field, as well as for the academic teachers who want to keep up to date, including the new developments and improvements continuously arising in this field. [Spanish] Este libro contiene una seleccion de trabajos de investigacion realizados dentro del Instituto de Capacitacion Especial y Desarrollo de la Ingenieria Asistida por Computadora en el area del analisis de riesgos, con una orientacion hacia el estudio de incertidumbres y sensibilidad, confiabilidad de software, modelacion de accidentes severos, etc. Este volumen recoge un material de indudable importancia e interes para todos aquellos investigadores y profesionales que desean incursionar en este campo del analisis de riesgos como herramienta para la solucion de problemas frecuentemente encontrados en la ingenieria y las ciencias aplicadas, asi como para los academicos que desean mantenerse al dia, conociendo los nuevos desarrollos y tecnicas que constantemente aparecen en su area.

48 CFR 852.273-70 - Late offers.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 5 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Late offers. 852.273-70... SOLICITATION PROVISIONS AND CONTRACT CLAUSES Texts of Provisions and Clauses 852.273-70 Late offers. As prescribed in 873.110(a), insert the following provision: Late Offers (JAN 2003) This provision replaces...

Innovative gas offers; Les offres gazieres innovantes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sala, O.; Mela, P. [Gaz de France (GDF), 75 - Paris (France); Chatelain, F. [Primagaz, 75 - Paris (France)

2007-07-01

New energy offers are progressively made available as the opening of gas market to competition becomes broader. How are organized the combined offers: gas, electricity, renewable energies and energy services? What are the marketing strategies implemented? Three participants at this round table present their offer and answer these questions. (J.S.)

LANDSAFE: LANDING SITE RISK ANALYSIS SOFTWARE FRAMEWORK

OpenAIRE

Schmidt, Ralph; Bostelmann, Jonas; Cornet, Yves; Heipke, Christian; Philippe, Christian; Poncelet, Nadia; de Rosa, Diego; Vandeloise, Yannick

2012-01-01

The European Space Agency (ESA) is planning a Lunar Lander mission in the 2018 timeframe that will demonstrate precise soft landing at the polar regions of the Moon. To ensure a safe and successful landing a careful risk analysis has to be carried out. This is comprised of identifying favorable target areas and evaluating the surface conditions in these areas. Features like craters, boulders, steep slopes, rough surfaces and shadow areas have to be identified in order to assess the risk assoc...

Risk analysis by FMEA as an element of analytical validation.

Science.gov (United States)

van Leeuwen, J F; Nauta, M J; de Kaste, D; Odekerken-Rombouts, Y M C F; Oldenhof, M T; Vredenbregt, M J; Barends, D M

2009-12-05

We subjected a Near-Infrared (NIR) analytical procedure used for screening drugs on authenticity to a Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA), including technical risks as well as risks related to human failure. An FMEA team broke down the NIR analytical method into process steps and identified possible failure modes for each step. Each failure mode was ranked on estimated frequency of occurrence (O), probability that the failure would remain undetected later in the process (D) and severity (S), each on a scale of 1-10. Human errors turned out to be the most common cause of failure modes. Failure risks were calculated by Risk Priority Numbers (RPNs)=O x D x S. Failure modes with the highest RPN scores were subjected to corrective actions and the FMEA was repeated, showing reductions in RPN scores and resulting in improvement indices up to 5.0. We recommend risk analysis as an addition to the usual analytical validation, as the FMEA enabled us to detect previously unidentified risks.

A new tool for risk analysis and assessment in petrochemical plants

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

El-Arkam Mechhoud

2016-09-01

Full Text Available The aim of our work was the implementation of a new automated tool dedicated to risk analysis and assessment in petrochemical plants, based on a combination of two analysis methods: HAZOP (HAZard and OPerability and FMEA (Failure Mode and Effect Analysis. Assessment of accident scenarios is also considered. The principal advantage of the two analysis methods is to speed-up hazard identification and risk assessment and forecast the nature and impact of such accidents. Plant parameters are analyzed under a graphical interface to facilitate the exploitation of our developed approach. This automated analysis brings out the different deviations of the operating parameters of any system in the plant. Possible causes of these deviations, their consequences and preventive actions are identified. The result is risk minimization and dependability enhancement of the considered system.

Management of Microbiologically Influenced Corrosion in Risk-Based Inspection Analysis