WorldWideScience

Sample records for risk analysis offers

  1. Do Sustainable Stocks Offer Diversification Benefits for Conventional Portfolios? An Empirical Analysis of Risk Spillovers and Dynamic Correlations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehmet Balcilar

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper explores the potential diversification benefits of socially responsible investments for conventional stock portfolios by examining the risk spillovers and dynamic correlations between conventional and sustainability stock indexes from a number of regions. We observe significant unidirectional volatility transmissions from conventional to sustainable equities, suggesting that the criteria applied for socially responsible investments do not necessarily shield these securities from common market shocks. While significant dynamic correlations are observed between sustainable and conventional stocks, particularly in Europe, the analysis of both in- and out-of-sample dynamic portfolios suggests that supplementing conventional stock portfolios with sustainable counterparts improves the risk/return profile of stock portfolios in all regions. The findings overall suggest that sustainable investments can indeed provide diversification gains for conventional stock portfolios globally.

  2. Offering lung cancer screening to high-risk medicare beneficiaries saves lives and is cost-effective: an actuarial analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pyenson, Bruce S; Henschke, Claudia I; Yankelevitz, David F; Yip, Rowena; Dec, Ellynne

    2014-08-01

    By a wide margin, lung cancer is the most significant cause of cancer death in the United States and worldwide. The incidence of lung cancer increases with age, and Medicare beneficiaries are often at increased risk. Because of its demonstrated effectiveness in reducing mortality, lung cancer screening with low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) imaging will be covered without cost-sharing starting January 1, 2015, by nongrandfathered commercial plans. Medicare is considering coverage for lung cancer screening. To estimate the cost and cost-effectiveness (ie, cost per life-year saved) of LDCT lung cancer screening of the Medicare population at high risk for lung cancer. Medicare costs, enrollment, and demographics were used for this study; they were derived from the 2012 Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) beneficiary files and were forecast to 2014 based on CMS and US Census Bureau projections. Standard life and health actuarial techniques were used to calculate the cost and cost-effectiveness of lung cancer screening. The cost, incidence rates, mortality rates, and other parameters chosen by the authors were taken from actual Medicare data, and the modeled screenings are consistent with Medicare processes and procedures. Approximately 4.9 million high-risk Medicare beneficiaries would meet criteria for lung cancer screening in 2014. Without screening, Medicare patients newly diagnosed with lung cancer have an average life expectancy of approximately 3 years. Based on our analysis, the average annual cost of LDCT lung cancer screening in Medicare is estimated to be $241 per person screened. LDCT screening for lung cancer in Medicare beneficiaries aged 55 to 80 years with a history of ≥30 pack-years of smoking and who had smoked within 15 years is low cost, at approximately $1 per member per month. This assumes that 50% of these patients were screened. Such screening is also highly cost-effective, at <$19,000 per life-year saved. If all eligible Medicare

  3. Genome-wide association analysis identifies novel blood pressure loci and offers biological insights into cardiovascular risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Warren, Helen R.; Evangelou, Evangelos; Cabrera, Claudia P.; Gao, He; Ren, Meixia; Mifsud, Borbala; Ntalla, Ioanna; Surendran, Praveen; Liu, Chunyu; Cook, James P.; Kraja, Aldi T.; Drenos, Fotios; Loh, Marie; Verweij, Niek; Marten, Jonathan; Karaman, Ibrahim; Lepe, Marcelo P. Segura; O'Reilly, Paul F.; Knight, Joanne; Snieder, Harold; Kato, Norihiro; He, Jiang; Tai, E. Shyong; Said, M. Abdullah; Porteous, David; Alver, Maris; Poulter, Neil; Farrall, Martin; Gansevoort, Ron T.; Padmanabhan, Sandosh; Magi, Reedik; Stanton, Alice; Connell, John; Bakker, Stephan J. L.; Metspalu, Andres; Shields, Denis C.; Thom, Simon; Brown, Morris; Sever, Peter; Esko, Tonu; Hayward, Caroline; van der Harst, Pim; Saleheen, Danish; Chowdhury, Rajiv; Chambers, John C.; Chasman, Daniel I.; Chakravarti, Aravinda; Newton-Cheh, Christopher; Lindgren, Cecilia M.; Levy, Daniel; Kooner, Jaspal S.; Keavney, Bernard; Tomaszewski, Maciej; Samani, Nilesh J.; Howson, Joanna M. M.; Tobin, Martin D.; Munroe, Patricia B.; Ehret, Georg B.; Wain, Louise V.; Barnes, Michael R.; Tzoulaki, Joanna; Caulfield, Mark J.; Elliott, Paul; Vaez, Ahmad; Jansen, Rick; Joehanes, Roby; van der Most, Peter J.; Erzurumluoglu, A. Mesut; O'Reilly, Paul; Rose, Lynda M.; Verwoert, Germaine C.; Hottenga, Jouke-Jan; Strawbridge, Rona J.; Arking, Dan E.; Hwang, Shih-Jen; Guo, Xiuqing; Kutalik, Zoltan; Trompet, Stella; Shrine, Nick; Teumer, Alexander; Ried, Janina S.; Bis, Joshua C.; Smith, Albert V.; Amin, Najaf; Nolte, Ilja M.; Lyytikainen, Leo-Pekka; Mahajan, Anubha; Wareham, Nicholas J.; Hofer, Edith; Joshi, Peter K.; Kristiansson, Kati; Traglia, Michela; Havulinna, Aki S.; Goel, Anuj; Nalls, Mike A.; Sober, Siim; Vuckovic, Dragana; Luan, Jian'an; del Greco, Fabiola M.; Ayers, Kristin L.; Marrugat, Jaume; Ruggiero, Daniela; Lopez, Lorna M.; Niiranen, Teemu; Enroth, Stefan; Jackson, Anne U.; Nelson, Christopher P.; Huffman, Jennifer E.; Zhang, Weihua; Gandin, Ilaria; Harris, Sarah E.; Zemonik, Tatijana; Lu, Yingchang; Shah, Nabi; de Borst, Martin H.; Mangino, Massimo; Prins, Bram P.; Campbell, Archie; Li-Gao, Ruifang; Chauhan, Ganesh; Oldmeadow, Christopher; Abecasis, Goncalo; Abedi, Maryam; Barbieri, Caterina M.; Batini, Chiara; Blake, Tineka; Boehnke, Michael; Bottinger, Erwin P.; Braund, Peter S.; Brumat, Marco; Campbell, Harry; Cocca, Massimiliano; Collins, Francis; Cordell, Heather J.; Damman, Jeffrey J.; Davies, Gail; de Geus, Eco J.; de Mutsert, Renee; Deelen, Joris; Demirkale, Yusuf; Doney, Alex S. F.; Dorr, Marcus; Ferreira, Teresa; Franberg, Mattias; Giedraitis, Vilmantas; Gieger, Christian; Giulianini, Franco; Gow, Alan J.; Hamsten, Anders; Harris, Tamara B.; Hofman, Albert; Holliday, Elizabeth G.; Jarvelin, Marjo-Riitta; Johansson, Asa; Johnson, Andrew D.; Jousilahti, Pekka; Jula, Antti; Kahonen, Mika; Kathiresan, Sekar; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Kolcic, Ivana; Koskinen, Seppo; Langenberg, Claudia; Larson, Marty; Launer, Lenore J.; Lehne, Benjamin; Liewald, David C. M.; Lin, Li; Lind, Lars; Mach, Francois; Mamasoula, Chrysovalanto; Menni, Cristina; Milaneschi, Yuri; Morgan, Anna; Morris, Andrew D.; Morrison, Alanna C.; Munson, Peter J.; Nandakumar, Priyanka; Nguyen, Quang Tri; Nutile, Teresa; Oldehinkel, Albertine J.; Oostra, Ben A.; Org, Elin; Palotie, Aarno; Pare, Guillaume; Pattie, Alison; Penninx, Brenda W. J. H.; Pramstaller, Peter P.; Raitakari, Olli T.; Rice, Kenneth; Ridker, Paul M.; Riese, Harriette; Ripatti, Samuli; Robino, Antonietta; Rotter, Jerome I.; Rudan, Igor; Saba, Yasaman; Saint Pierre, Aude; Sala, Cinzia F.; Sarin, Antti-Pekka; Schmidt, Reinhold; Scott, Rodney; Seelen, Marc A.; Siscovick, David; Sorice, Rossella; Stott, David J.; Sundstrom, Johan; Swertz, Morris; Taylor, Kent D.; Tzoulaki, Ioanna; Tzourio, Christophe; Uitterlinden, Andre G.; Volker, Uwe; Vollenweider, Peter; Wild, Sarah; Willemsen, Gonneke; Wright, Alan F.; Yao, Jie; Theriault, Sebastien; Conen, David; John, Attia; Debette, Stephanie; Mook-Kanamori, Dennis O.; Zeggini, Eleftheria; Spector, Tim D.; Palmer, Colin N. A.; Vergnaud, Anne-Claire; Loos, Ruth J. F.; Polasek, Ozren; Starr, John M.; Girotto, Giorgia; Lindgren, Cecila M.; Vitart, Veronique; Tuomilehto, Jaakko; Gyllensten, Ulf; Knekt, Paul; Deary, Ian J.; Ciullo, Marina; Elosua, Roberto; Keavney, Bernard D.; Hicks, Andrew A.; Scott, Robert A.; Gasparini, Paolo; Laan, Maris; Liu, Yongmei; Watkins, Hugh; Hartman, Catharina A.; Salomaa, Veikko; Toniolo, Daniela; Perola, Markus; Wilson, James F.; Schmidt, Helena; Zhao, Jing Hua; Lehtimaki, Terho; van Duijn, Cornelia M.; Gudnason, Vilmundur; Psaty, Bruce M.; Peters, Annette; Rettig, Rainer; James, Alan; Jukema, J. Wouter; Strachan, David P.; Palmas, Walter; Ingelsson, Erik; Boomsma, Dorret I.; Franco, Oscar H.; Bochud, Murielle; Morris, Andrew P.

    2017-01-01

    Elevated blood pressure is the leading heritable risk factor for cardiovascular disease worldwide. We report genetic association of blood pressure (systolic, diastolic, pulse pressure) among UK Biobank participants of European ancestry with independent replication in other cohorts, and robust

  4. Offers

    CERN Multimedia

    Staff Association

    2011-01-01

    Special offers for our members       Go Sport in Val Thoiry is offering 15% discount on all purchases made in the shop upon presentation of the Staff Association membership card (excluding promotions, sale items and bargain corner, and excluding purchases using Go Sport  and Kadéos gift cards. Only one discount can be applied to each purchase).  

  5. Offers

    CERN Multimedia

    Staff Association

    2012-01-01

    L'Occitane en Provence proposes the following offer: 10 % discount on all products in all L'Occitane shops in Metropolitan France upon presentation of your Staff Association membership card and a valid ID. This offer is valid only for one person, is non-transferable and cannot be combined with other promotions.

  6. Offers

    CERN Multimedia

    Staff Association

    2014-01-01

    New offers : Discover the theater Galpon in Geneva. The Staff Association is happy to offer to its members a discount of 8.00 CHF on a full-price ticket (tickets of 15.00 CHF instead of 22.00 CHF) so do not hesitate anymore (mandatory reservation by phone + 4122 321  21 76 as tickets are quickly sold out!). For further information, please see our website: http://staff-association.web.cern.ch/fr/content/th%C3%A9%C3%A2tre-du-galpon  

  7. Offer

    CERN Multimedia

    Staff Association

    2016-01-01

    CERN was selected and participated in the ranking "Best Employers" organized by the magazine Bilan. To thank CERN for its collaboration, the magazine offers a reduction to the subscription fee for all employed members of personnel. 25% off the annual subscription: CHF 149.25 instead of CHF 199 .— The subscription includes the magazine delivered to your home for a year, every other Wednesday, as well as special editions and access to the e-paper. To benefit from this offer, simply fill out the form provided for this purpose. To get the form, please contact the secretariat of the Staff Association (Staff.Association@cern.ch).

  8. Offers

    CERN Multimedia

    Staff Association

    2013-01-01

    SPECIAL OFFER FOR OUR MEMBERS Prices Spring and Summer 2013 Day ticket: same price weekends, public holidays and weekdays: Children from 5 to 15 years old: 30 CHF instead of 39 CHF Adults from 16 years old: 36 CHF instead of 49 CHF Bonus! Free for children under 5 Tickets available at the Staff Association Secretariat.

  9. Offers

    CERN Multimedia

    Association du personnel

    2013-01-01

    SPECIAL OFFER FOR OUR MEMBERS Prices Spring and Summer 2013 Day ticket: same price weekends, public holidays and weekdays: – Children from 5 to 15 years old: 30 CHF instead of 39 CHF – Adults from 16 years old: 36 CHF instead of 49 CHF – Bonus! Free for children under 5 Tickets available at the Staff Association Secretariat.

  10. Offers

    CERN Document Server

    Staff Association

    2015-01-01

    New offer for our members. The Staff Association CERN staff has recently concluded a framework agreement with AXA Insurance Ltd, General-Guisan-Strasse 40, 8401 Winterthur. This contract allows you to benefit from a preferential tariff and conditions for insurances: Motor vehicles for passenger cars and motorcycles of the product line STRADA: 10% discount Household insurance (personal liability and household contents) the product line BOX: 10% discount Travel insurance: 10% discount Buildings: 10% discount Legal protection: 10% discount AXA is number one on the Swiss insurance market. The product range encompasses all non-life insurance such as insurance of persons, property, civil liability, vehicles, credit and travel as well as innovative and comprehensive solutions in the field of occupational benefits insurance for individuals and businesses. Finally, the affiliate AXA-ARAG (legal expenses insurance) completes the offer. Armed with your staff association CERN card, you can always get the off...

  11. Offers

    CERN Multimedia

    Staff Association

    2012-01-01

    proposes the following offer: 15% discount for the Staff Association members who enroll their children in summer FUTUREKIDS activities. Extracurricular Activities For Your Children The FUTUREKIDS Geneva Learning Center is open 6 days a week and offers a selection of after-school extracurricular activities for children and teenagers (ages 5 to 16). In addition to teaching in its Learning Centers, Futurekids collaborates with many private schools in Suisse Romande (Florimont, Moser, Champittet, Ecole Nouvelle, etc.) and with the Département de l'Instruction Publique (DIP) Genève. Courses and camps are usually in French but English groups can be set up on demand. FUTUREKIDS Computer Camps (during school holidays) FUTUREKIDS Computer Camps are a way of having a great time during vacations while learning something useful, possibly discovering a new hobby or even, why not, a future profession. Our computer camps are at the forefront of technology. Themes are diverse and suit all ...

  12. Offer

    CERN Multimedia

    Staff Association

    2010-01-01

      Special offer for members of the Staff Association and their families 10% reduction on all products in the SEPHORA shop (sells perfume, beauty products etc.) in Val Thoiry ALL YEAR ROUND. Plus 20% reduction during their “vente privée”* three or four times a year. Simply present your Staff Association membership card when you make your purchase. * Next “vente privée” from 22th to 29th November 2010

  13. Offer

    CERN Multimedia

    Staff Association

    2011-01-01

      Special offer for members of the Staff Association and their families 10% reduction on all products in the SEPHORA shop (sells perfume, beauty products etc.) in Val Thoiry ALL YEAR ROUND. Plus 20% reduction during their “vente privée”* three or four times a year. Simply present your Staff Association membership card when you make your purchase. * Next “vente privée” from 25th to 27th March 2011  

  14. Offers

    CERN Multimedia

    Staff Association

    2012-01-01

    SPECIAL OFFER FOR OUR MEMBERS Single tariff Adulte/Enfant Tickets “Zone terrestre” 20 euros instead of 25 euros. Access to Aqualibi: 5 euros instead of 8 euros on presentation of your ticket SA member. Free for children under 3, with limited access to the attractions. More information on our website : http://association.web.cern.ch/association/en/OtherActivities/Walibi.html

  15. Offers

    CERN Multimedia

    Staff Association

    2012-01-01

    SPECIAL OFFER FOR OUR MEMBERS Prices Spring and Summer 2012 Half-day ticket: 5 hours, same price weekends, public holidays and weekdays. Children from 5 to 15 years old: 26 CHF instead of 35 CHF Adults from 16 years old: 32 CHF instead of 43 CHF Bonus! Free for children under 5. Aquaparc Les Caraïbes sur Léman 1807 Le Bouveret (VS)

  16. Offer

    CERN Multimedia

    CARLSON WAGONLIT TRAVEL

    2011-01-01

    Special offer   From 14th to 28th February 2011: no CWT service fee! For any new reservation of a holiday package (flight + hotel/apartment) from a catalog “summer 2011” For any additional information our staff is at your disposal from Monday – Friday, from 8h30 to 16h30. Phone number 72763 or 72797 Carlson Wagonlit Tavel, Agence du CERN  

  17. Offers

    CERN Document Server

    Staff Association

    2011-01-01

    Banque cantonale de Genève (BCGE) The BCGE Business partner programme devised for members of the CERN Staff Association offers personalized banking solutions with preferential conditions. The advantages are linked to salary accounts (free account keeping, internet banking, free Maestro and credit cards, etc.), mortgage lending, retirement planning, investment, credit, etc. The details of the programme and the preferential conditions are available on our website: http://association.web.cern.ch/association/en/OtherActivities/BCGE.html.  

  18. Offers

    CERN Multimedia

    Staff Association

    2012-01-01

    Special offer for members of the Staff Association and their families 10 % reduction on all products in the Sephora shop (sells perfume, beauty products etc.) in Val Thoiry all year round. Plus 20 % reduction during their “vente privée”* three or four times a year. Simply present your Staff Association membership card when you make your purchase. * next “vente privée” from 21st November to 1st December 2012 Please contact the Staff Association Secretariat to get the discount voucher.

  19. Offers

    CERN Multimedia

    Staff Association

    2012-01-01

    Special offer for members of the Staff Association and their families 10% reduction on all products in the SEPHORA shop (sells perfume, beauty products etc.) in Val Thoiry ALL YEAR ROUND. Plus 20% reduction during their “vente privée”* three or four times a year. Simply present your Staff Association membership card when you make your purchase. * Next “vente privée” from 21st to 26th May 2012 Please contact the Staff Association Secretariat to get the discount voucher  

  20. Offers

    CERN Multimedia

    Staff Association

    2013-01-01

    The « Théâtre de Carouge » offers a 5.- CHF discount for all shows (30.- CHF instead of 35.- CHF) and for the season tickets "Premières représentations" (132.- CHF instead of 162.- CHF) and "Classique" (150.- CHF instead of 180.- CHF). Please send your reservation by email to smills@tcag.ch via your professional email address. Please indicate the date of your reservation, your name and firstname and your telephone number A confirmation will be sent by email. Your membership card will be asked when you collect the tickets. More information on www.tcag.ch and www.tcag.ch/blog/

  1. Offers

    CERN Multimedia

    Staff Association

    2013-01-01

    Special offer for members of the Staff Association and their families 10 % reduction on all products in the SEPHORA shop (sells perfume, beauty products etc.) in Val Thoiry ALL YEAR ROUND. Plus 20 % reduction during their “vente privée”* three or four times a year. Simply present your Staff Association membership card when you make your purchase. * Next “vente privée” from 11th to 23rd November 2013 Please contact the Staff Association Secretariat to get the discount voucher.  

  2. Offers

    CERN Multimedia

    Staff Association

    2014-01-01

    Special offer for members of the Staff Association and their families 10 % reduction on all products in the SEPHORA shop (sells perfume, beauty products etc.) in Val Thoiry ALL YEAR ROUND. Simply present your Staff Association membership card when you make your purchase. Plus 20 % reduction during their “vente privée”* three or four times a year. * Next “vente privée” from 24th September to 6th November 2014 Please contact the Staff Association Secretariat to get the discount voucher.  

  3. Offers

    CERN Multimedia

    Staff Association

    2014-01-01

    Passeport Gourmand   Are you dying for a nice meal? The “Passeport Gourmand” offers discounted prices to the members of the Staff Association (available until April 2015 and on sale in the Staff Association Secretariat): Passeport gourmand Ain / Savoie/ Haute Savoie: 56 CHF instead of 79 CHF. Passeport gourmand Geneva / neighbouring France:72 CHF instead of 95 CHF. To the members of the Staff Association: Benefit of reduced tickets: CHF 10 (instead of  18 CHF at the desk) on sale to the secretariat of the Staff Association, Building 510-R010 (in front of the Printshop).

  4. Offers

    CERN Multimedia

    Staff Association

    2015-01-01

    New season 2015-2016 The new season was revealed in May, and was warmly welcomed by the press, which is especially enthusiastic about the exceptional arrival of Fanny Ardand in September in the framework of Cassandre show. Discover the programme 2015-2016. The theatre La Comédie proposes different offers to our members Benefit from a reduction of 20 % on a full price ticket during all the season: from 38 CHF to 23 CHF ticket instead of 50 CHF to 30 CHF depending on the show. Buy two seasonal tickets at the price of one (offers valid upon availability, and until 30 september 2015) 2 Cards Libertà for 240 CHF instead of 480 CHF. Cruise freely through the season with 8 perfomances of your choice per season. These cards are transferrable, and can be shared with one or more accompanying persons. 2 Abo Piccolo for 120 CHF instead of 240 CHF. Let yourself be surprised a theatre performance with our discovery seasonal tickets, which includes 4 flagship perfomances for the season. ...

  5. Offers

    CERN Multimedia

    Staff Association

    2011-01-01

    At the UN Cultural kiosk (door C6) This offer is meant for international civil servants, members of diplomatic missions as well as official delegates under presentation of their accreditation card. Matthew Lee & 5 musiciens Du Blues, du Boogie, du Rock’n’Roll 28 octobre 2011 à 20h30 Théâtre du Léman Quai du Mont-Blanc 19 Hôtel Kempinski Genève Matthew Lee is an exciting pianist singer combining classic Rock’n’Roll with timeless ballads. He revisits the standards, being alternately Jerry Lee Lewis, Chuck Berry, Little Richards and many others... He is a showman with a soulful voice and displays virtuosity during his piano solos. Simply amazing! 20 % reduction Tickets from 32 to 68 CHF Kiosque Culturel ONU Palais des Nations Porte 6 Avenue de la Paix 8-14 1211 Genève 10 Tél. 022 917 11 11 info@kiosqueonu.ch

  6. Offers

    CERN Multimedia

    Association du personnel

    2010-01-01

    THEATRE FORUM DE MEYRIN 1, place des Cinq-Continents 1217 Meyrin    Special offer for members of the Staff Association: Reduced ticket prices for the play Love is my sin (in English) from 15 to 17 March at 8.30pm http://www.forum-meyrin.ch/main.php?page=119&s=12   First category: 37 CHF instead of 46 CHF Second category (seats towards the sides): 30 CHF instead of 38 CHF Please present your CERN card and your Staff Association membership card at the ticket office. Ticket reservation: tel. 022 989 34 34 (from Monday to Friday 2pm to 6pm) or e-mail : billetterie@forum-meyrin.ch  

  7. Offers

    CERN Multimedia

    Staff Association

    2013-01-01

    FUTUREKIDS proposes 15% discount for the Staff Association members who enroll their children in FUTUREKIDS activities. New workshop for 12-15 year olds, on how to develop applications for Android phones. Easter activities calendar Extracurricular Activities For Your Children The FUTUREKIDS Geneva Learning Center is open 6 days a week and offers a selection of after-school extracurricular activities for children and teenagers (ages 5 to 16). In addition to teaching in its Learning Centers, Futurekids collaborates with many private schools in Suisse Romande (Florimont, Moser, Champittet, Ecole Nouvelle, etc.) and with the Département de l'Instruction Publique (DIP) Genève. Courses and camps are usually in French but English groups can be set up on demand. FUTUREKIDS Computer Camps (during school holidays) FUTUREKIDS Computer Camps are a way of having a great time during vacations while learning something useful, possibly discovering a new hobby or even, why not, a fut...

  8. Offers

    CERN Multimedia

    Staff Association

    2013-01-01

    Do not hesitate to benefit of our offers in our partners: Théâtre de Carouge Discount of 5 CHF for all shows (30 CHF instead of 35 CHF) and on season tickets « first performance » ( 132 CHF instead 162 CHF) and also on « classical » ( 150 CHF instead of 180 CHF) upon presentation of your Staff Association membership card before payment. Théâtre La Comédie de Genève  20% off on tickets (full price – also available for partner): from 24 to 32 CHF a ticket instead of 30 to 40 CHF depending on the shows. 40% off on annual subscriptions (access to the best seats, pick up tickets at the last minute): 200 CHF for 9 shows (about 22 CHF a ticket instead of 30 to 40 CHF. Discounted card: 60 CHF and single price ticket of 16 CHF.

  9. Offer

    CERN Multimedia

    Staff Association

    2015-01-01

    RRP Communication organizes cultural events such as concerts, shows, sporting events. The members of the Staff Association profits from a reduction of 10 CHF per ticket. How to proceed: The ticket reservation is made by mail info@rrp.ch. You need to give the following information: Name of the show, and which date chosen Number of tickets, and category Name and surname Address Telephone number Mention “offer CERN”, and attach a photocopy of your Staff Association member card. After your reservation, you will be sent a copy with a payslip to the address mentioned above. Once paid, the members have the possibility to: pick up their ticket(s) from the cash register the evening of the show (opens 1 hour before the show) by showing their member card; receive the ticket(s) to the address indicated above, by registered mail, subject to an extra cost of 10CHF. Next show : More information at http://www.rrp.ch/

  10. Offer

    CERN Document Server

    Staff Association

    2011-01-01

    DETAILS OF THE AGREEMENT WITH BCGE The BCGE Business partner programme devised for members of the CERN Staff Association offers personalized banking solutions with preferential conditions. The advantages are linked to salary accounts (free account keeping, internet banking, free Maestro and credit cards, etc.), mortgage lending, retirement planning, investment, credit, etc. The details of the programme and the preferential conditions are available on the Staff Association web site and from the secretariat (http://cern.ch/association/en/OtherActivities/BCGE.html). To benefit from these advantages, you will need to fill in the form available on our site, which must then be stamped by the Staff Association as proof that you are a paid-up member.  

  11. Offer

    CERN Multimedia

    Staff Association

    2016-01-01

    The “La Comédie” theatre unveiled its programme for the season 2016–2017 in late May, and it was met with great enthusiasm by the press. Leading names of the European and Swiss theatre scenes, such as director Joël Pommerat who recently won four Molière awards, will make an appearance! We are delighted to share this brand new, rich and varied programme with you. The “La Comédie” theatre has various discounts for our members Buy 2 subscriptions for the price of 1 : 2 cards “Libertà” for CHF 240.- instead of CHF 480.- Cruise freely through the season with an 8-entry card valid for the shows of your choice. These cards are transferable and can be shared with one or more accompanying persons. 2 cards “Piccolo” for CHF 120 instead of CHF 240.- This card lets you discover 4 shows which are suitable for all audiences (offers valid while stock lasts and until October 31, 20...

  12. Offers

    CERN Multimedia

    Staff Association

    2011-01-01

    Special offer for members of the Staff Association and their families 10% reduction on all products in the SEPHORA shop (sells perfume, beauty products etc.) in Val Thoiry ALL YEAR ROUND. Plus 20% reduction during their “vente privée”* three or four times a year. Simply present your Staff Association membership card when you make your purchase. * Next “vente privée” from 21st to 26th November 2011 New BCGE Business partner benefits As you may remember thanks to our BCGE business partner agreement you benefit from various advantages such as free annual subscription on your Silver or Gold credit card both for yourself and your partner (joint account). Please be informed that as of October 1st  2011 the below mentioned features will be added to your annual credit card subscription : MasterCard/Visa Silver and Gold: travel cancellation as well as related services such as holiday interruption best guaranteed price Only for Ma...

  13. Venture capital and risk management: evidence from initial public offerings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles E. Bamford

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available In this study we analyze a sample of initial public offerings (IPOs to infer the sources of firm-specific risk associated with investment by venture capitalists. The results indicate that IPO backing by venture capitalists is associated with risk factors related to operating profit margins and ongoing sales generation, but not operational financing. The results also indicate that venture-backed IPOs are associated with greater reductions in firm-specific risk over the course of a year that includes the date of the IPO. In sum, the findings suggest venture capitalists are willing to accept higher levels of uncertainty in those instances where they have an advantage in terms of managerial skill, and are able to reduce firm-specific risk subsequent to investment in order to maximize returns when they cash out. Our study also makes use of proxies that are representative of the ex-ante nature of firm-specific risk at the time of a new issue

  14. Isokinetic strength assessment offers limited predictive validity for detecting risk of future hamstring strain in sport: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Brady; Bourne, Matthew N; Pizzari, Tania

    2018-03-01

    To examine the value of isokinetic strength assessment for predicting risk of hamstring strain injury, and to direct future research into hamstring strain injuries. Systematic review. Database searches for Medline, CINAHL, Embase, AMED, AUSPORT, SPORTDiscus, PEDro and Cochrane Library from inception to April 2017. Manual reference checks, ahead-of-press and citation tracking. Prospective studies evaluating isokinetic hamstrings, quadriceps and hip extensor strength testing as a risk factor for occurrence of hamstring muscle strain. Independent search result screening. Risk of bias assessment by independent reviewers using Quality in Prognosis Studies tool. Best evidence synthesis and meta-analyses of standardised mean difference (SMD). Twelve studies were included, capturing 508 hamstring strain injuries in 2912 athletes. Isokinetic knee flexor, knee extensor and hip extensor outputs were examined at angular velocities ranging 30-300°/s, concentric or eccentric, and relative (Nm/kg) or absolute (Nm) measures. Strength ratios ranged between 30°/s and 300°/s. Meta-analyses revealed a small, significant predictive effect for absolute (SMD=-0.16, P=0.04, 95% CI -0.31 to -0.01) and relative (SMD=-0.17, P=0.03, 95% CI -0.33 to -0.014) eccentric knee flexor strength (60°/s). No other testing speed or strength ratio showed statistical association. Best evidence synthesis found over half of all variables had moderate or strong evidence for no association with future hamstring injury. Despite an isolated finding for eccentric knee flexor strength at slow speeds, the role and application of isokinetic assessment for predicting hamstring strain risk should be reconsidered, particularly given costs and specialised training required. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  15. FORUM Obstetric risk avoidance: Will anyone be offering obstetrics ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    performing deliveries in private practice by the end of the decade?' If the answer to the ... Insurance companies, although offering an insurance product, also ... deliver in provincial facilities, shifting the workload and liability to the state.

  16. Obstetric risk avoidance: Will anyone be offering obstetrics in private ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    By the end of the decade indemnifying obstetric risk will probably be too expensive for doctors in private practice. Non-indemnified doctors will be unable or unwilling to do private deliveries; however, women will still fall pregnant and require delivery. These women will inevitably be forced to deliver in provincial facilities, ...

  17. Information Security Risk Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Peltier, Thomas R

    2010-01-01

    Offers readers with the knowledge and the skill-set needed to achieve a highly effective risk analysis assessment. This title demonstrates how to identify threats and then determine if those threats pose a real risk. It is suitable for industry and academia professionals.

  18. Risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baron, J.H.; Nunez McLeod, J.; Rivera, S.S.

    1997-01-01

    This book contains a selection of research works performed in the CEDIAC Institute (Cuyo National University) in the area of Risk Analysis, with specific orientations to the subjects of uncertainty and sensitivity studies, software reliability, severe accident modeling, etc. This volume presents important material for all those researches who want to have an insight in the risk analysis field, as a tool to solution several problems frequently found in the engineering and applied sciences field, as well as for the academic teachers who want to keep up to date, including the new developments and improvements continuously arising in this field [es

  19. United Kingdom evidence on the behaviour of the beta or systematic risk of initial public offerings

    OpenAIRE

    Qian, Yi

    2012-01-01

    This study examines the beta or systematic risk of initial public offerings using a sample of newly issued stocks in the United Kingdom market. The findings are threefold. First, the beta risk estimation is found to decline over time. It corresponds with the differential information model which predicts that the risk of low information is high with uncertainty around it and will decline as the quantity of information increases. The quantity of information, in this case, is represented by time...

  20. Analysis of Polish internet retail sites offering electronic cigarettes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zarobkiewicz, Michał Konrad; Woźniakowski, Mateusz Mariusz; Sławiński, Mirosław Aleksander; Samborski, Patryk Michał; Wawryk-Gawda, Ewelina; Jodłowska-Jędrych, Barbara

    Electronic cigarettes as possibly healthier alternative to conventional cigarettes are gaining popularity worldwide, although they are still hazardous to human health. Partly it is caused by unregulated advertising and online sales. Unfortunately it is more and more popular for youth to try electronic cigarettes. The aim of the study was to assess the marketing claims used by Polish websites offering electronic cigarettes. A search using Google search engine was performed in July 2015 for two keywords: e-papierosy [e-cigarettes] and elektroniczne papierosy [electronic cigarettes]. First 150 websites (15 pages) were listed. After initial review 86 pages met all inclusion criteria and were included in the study. Pages were searched for presence of 13 selected marketing claims as well as age-related warning and any social websites connections. Age-related warning was present on only 33.72% (n=29) websites. Two thirds has its own Facebook fan-page with average 1922.09 ± 3634.86 likes. Articles about health are available on 10.46% (n=9) websites, 53.49% (n=46) states that e-cigarettes are healthier than conventional ones, 39.53% (n=34) emphasized that during usage of e-cigarettes no tarry substances are produced. Two pages had special article in which conventional and electronic cigarettes were compared. Almost half (44.19%) remarked that e-cigarettes are cheaper in usage than conventional, one third pointed out the simplicity of usage. 32.56% advertised e-cigarettes as aid in quitting smoking. One fourth stated that e-cigarettes are harmless for surroundings. 33.72% marketed them as a way of bypassing public smoking act. 56.98% remarked the variety of liquid tastes offered. Electronic cigarettes and their rising popularity create another new possible threat for public health as the widely available information emphasize safety of e-cigarettes usage and as their availability and usage is not limited or restricted by law. electronic cigarettes, e-cigarettes, internet

  1. Risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Correa Lizarazu, X.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation Colombia risk evaluation experiences, sanitarian regulations evolution, chemical dangers food, biological dangers food, codex alimentarius, trade, industrial effects, dangers identification, data collection and risk profile

  2. Optimal hydro scheduling and offering strategies considering price uncertainty and risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Catalão, J.P.S.; Pousinho, H.M.I.; Contreras, J.

    2012-01-01

    Hydro energy represents a priority in the energy policy of Portugal, with the aim of decreasing the dependence on fossil fuels. In this context, optimal hydro scheduling acquires added significance in moving towards a sustainable environment. A mixed-integer nonlinear programming approach is considered to enable optimal hydro scheduling for the short-term time horizon, including the effect of head on power production, start-up costs related to the units, multiple regions of operation, and constraints on discharge variation. As new contributions to the field, market uncertainty is introduced in the model via price scenarios and risk management is included using Conditional Value-at-Risk to limit profit volatility. Moreover, plant scheduling and pool offering by the hydro power producer are simultaneously considered to solve a realistic cascaded hydro system. -- Highlights: ► A mixed-integer nonlinear programming approach is considered for optimal hydro scheduling. ► Market uncertainty is introduced in the model via price scenarios. ► Risk management is included using conditional value-at-risk. ► Plant scheduling and pool offering by the hydro power producer are simultaneously considered. ► A realistic cascaded hydro system is solved.

  3. Information security risk analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Peltier, Thomas R

    2001-01-01

    Effective Risk AnalysisQualitative Risk AnalysisValue AnalysisOther Qualitative MethodsFacilitated Risk Analysis Process (FRAP)Other Uses of Qualitative Risk AnalysisCase StudyAppendix A: QuestionnaireAppendix B: Facilitated Risk Analysis Process FormsAppendix C: Business Impact Analysis FormsAppendix D: Sample of ReportAppendix E: Threat DefinitionsAppendix F: Other Risk Analysis OpinionsIndex

  4. Improving STD testing behavior among high-risk young adults by offering STD testing at a vocational school

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hoebe Christian JPA

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Chlamydia trachomatis infection (CT is the most prevalent bacterial STD. Sexually active adolescents and young adults are the main risk group for CT. However, STD testing rates in this group are low since exposed individuals may not feel at risk, owing-at least in part-to the infection's largely asymptomatic nature. Designing new testing environments that are more appealing to young people who are most at risk of acquiring chlamydia can be an important strategy to improve overall testing rates. Here we evaluate the effect of a school-based sexual health program conducted among vocational school students, aiming to obtain better access for counseling and enhance students' STD testing behavior. Methods Adolescents (median age 19 years attending a large vocational school were provided with sexual health education. Students filled in a questionnaire measuring CT risk and were offered STD testing. Using univariate and multivariate analysis, we assessed differences between men and women in STD-related risk behavior, sexual problems, CT testing behavior and determinants of CT testing behavior. Results Of 345 participants, 70% were female. Of the 287 sexually active students, 75% were at high risk for CT; one third of women reported sexual problems. Of sexually active participants, 61% provided a self-administered specimen for STD testing. Independent determinants for testing included STD related symptoms and no condom use. All CT diagnoses were in the high-CT-risk group. In the high-risk group, STD testing showed an increased uptake, from 27% (previous self-reported test to 65% (current test. CT prevalence was 5.7%. Conclusions Vocational school students are a target population for versatile sexual health prevention. When provided with CT testing facilities and education, self selection mechanisms seemed to increase CT testing rate dramatically in this high-CT-risk population expressing sexual problems. Considering the relative ease

  5. Foundations of Risk Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Aven, Terje

    2012-01-01

    Foundations of Risk Analysis presents the issues core to risk analysis - understanding what risk means, expressing risk, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real problems. The author provides the readers with the knowledge and basic thinking they require to successfully manage risk and uncertainty to support decision making. This updated edition reflects recent developments on risk and uncertainty concepts, representations and treatment. New material in Foundations of Risk Analysis includes:An up to date presentation of how to understand, define and

  6. Analysis of the Structure of Job Offers on the Czech Labour Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martínek Tomáš

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Labour market development is an important macro-economic indicator of every national economy. Labour supply in particular fields should reflect on demands of employers on newly recruited employees. These demands can be analysed by studying published job offers. This analysis of Czech labour market is conducted based on the aggregated statistical data collected by an on-demand application. The studied data sample covers more than 60% of all the job offers published in the Czech Republic. The situation in respective occupational fields is compared with aggregate nation-wide average as well as with data from other fields. Results show distinct differences in absolute quantity of offers, compensations to employees offered as well as qualification requirements.

  7. Observations on risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, W.A. Jr.

    1979-11-01

    This paper briefly describes WASH 1400 and the Lewis report. It attempts to define basic concepts such as risk and risk analysis, common mode failure, and rare event. Several probabilistic models which go beyond the WASH 1400 methodology are introduced; the common characteristic of these models is that they recognize explicitly that risk analysis is time dependent whereas WASH 1400 takes a per demand failure rate approach which obscures the important fact that accidents are time related. Further, the presentation of a realistic risk analysis should recognize that there are various risks which compete with one another for the lives of the individuals at risk. A way of doing this is suggested

  8. What can be offered to couples at (possibly) increased genetic risk?

    OpenAIRE

    Read, Andrew P.; Donnai, Dian

    2012-01-01

    We review the reasons why a couple might seek specialist genetic counselling about a possible reproductive risk and the options available to them. Most commonly, the couple will be concerned about the risk of recurrence of a medical condition that has already occurred in the family. Sometimes, the increased risk may come from their ethnicity or because of a consanguineous marriage, rather than because any problem has occurred previously. The geneticist must identify the exact nature of any pr...

  9. What can be offered to couples at (possibly) increased genetic risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Read, Andrew P; Donnai, Dian

    2012-07-01

    We review the reasons why a couple might seek specialist genetic counselling about a possible reproductive risk and the options available to them. Most commonly, the couple will be concerned about the risk of recurrence of a medical condition that has already occurred in the family. Sometimes, the increased risk may come from their ethnicity or because of a consanguineous marriage, rather than because any problem has occurred previously. The geneticist must identify the exact nature of any problem and determine the risks in the light of the mode of inheritance, any investigations undertaken and any other relevant information. The geneticist will then review the options open to the couple, and help them arrive at their own decision in a non-directive way. Some couples may opt to do nothing and let nature take its course but others may request prenatal or pre-implantation diagnosis, or they may avoid the conception of an at-risk child by using donor gametes, adoption or even decide not to have children.

  10. Digital Risk Inventory and Evaluation (RIE) : a Dutch approach offering valuable support for small business owners

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meeuwsen, J.M.

    2008-01-01

    The Dutch Working Conditions Act requires employers to perform a Risk Inventory and Evaluation (RIE). Until recently, small business owners (SMEs) in particular were unhappy about this rather time-consuming obligation. However, the introduction of digital RIE instruments disseminated through the web

  11. Is risk analysis scientific?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansson, Sven Ove; Aven, Terje

    2014-07-01

    This article discusses to what extent risk analysis is scientific in view of a set of commonly used definitions and criteria. We consider scientific knowledge to be characterized by its subject matter, its success in developing the best available knowledge in its fields of study, and the epistemic norms and values that guide scientific investigations. We proceed to assess the field of risk analysis according to these criteria. For this purpose, we use a model for risk analysis in which science is used as a base for decision making on risks, which covers the five elements evidence, knowledge base, broad risk evaluation, managerial review and judgment, and the decision; and that relates these elements to the domains experts and decisionmakers, and to the domains fact-based or value-based. We conclude that risk analysis is a scientific field of study, when understood as consisting primarily of (i) knowledge about risk-related phenomena, processes, events, etc., and (ii) concepts, theories, frameworks, approaches, principles, methods and models to understand, assess, characterize, communicate, and manage risk, in general and for specific applications (the instrumental part). © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  12. Strategic analysis of companies offering technology services to farmers for mobile applications media

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rodrigo da Silva Riquena

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The use of smart-phones and tablets is increasing the farming community before these fact companies that offer products and services to this sector are mobilizing to be active in this new reality. However, companies that operate in the rural market, not only have the aim of helping farmers in providing services through mobile technology applications, it was necessary to identify the strategic performance of these companies as a market opportunity in selling their products in the agricultural sector. Therefore, this article aimed to identify the strategic planning of technology companies to provide services through applications to farmers. The methodological approach used is a qualitative approach with the exploratory and descriptive aim of the use of content analysis of the websites of those companies studied. This study concluded that companies by offering technology services to farmers, use these services strategically to your advantage without the knowledge of the real needs of farmers.

  13. The Risks of Cloud Computing in Accounting Field and the Solution Offers: The Case of Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Serap Özdemir

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Cloud is the system that maintains common information sharing among the information devices. It is known that there are always risks and that hundred per cent safety is not available in the environments of information technology. Service providers that operate in accounting sector and utilize the cloud technology are responsible for keeping and preserving the digital financial data that are vitally important for the companies. Service providers need to take all the necessary technical measures, so that the digital data are not damaged, lost and possessed by the malicious third parties. The establishments that provide service for accounting systems by utilizing the cloud computing opportunities in accounting field need to consider the general and co untry-specific risks of cloud computing technology. Therefore, they need to build the necessary technical infrastructure and models in order to run the system flawlessly and to preserve the digital data of the establishments in a secure environment.

  14. Comparative risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niehaus, F.

    1988-01-01

    In this paper, the risks of various energy systems are discussed considering severe accidents analysis, particularly the probabilistic safety analysis, and probabilistic safety criteria, and the applications of these criteria and analysis. The comparative risk analysis has demonstrated that the largest source of risk in every society is from daily small accidents. Nevertheless, we have to be more concerned about severe accidents. The comparative risk analysis of five different energy systems (coal, oil, gas, LWR and STEC (Solar)) for the public has shown that the main sources of risks are coal and oil. The latest comparative risk study of various energy has been conducted in the USA and has revealed that the number of victims from coal is 42 as many than victims from nuclear. A study for severe accidents from hydro-dams in United States has estimated the probability of dam failures at 1 in 10,000 years and the number of victims between 11,000 and 260,000. The average occupational risk from coal is one fatal accident in 1,000 workers/year. The probabilistic safety analysis is a method that can be used to assess nuclear energy risks, and to analyze the severe accidents, and to model all possible accident sequences and consequences. The 'Fault tree' analysis is used to know the probability of failure of the different systems at each point of accident sequences and to calculate the probability of risks. After calculating the probability of failure, the criteria for judging the numerical results have to be developed, that is the quantitative and qualitative goals. To achieve these goals, several systems have been devised by various countries members of AIEA. The probabilistic safety ana-lysis method has been developed by establishing a computer program permit-ting to know different categories of safety related information. 19 tabs. (author)

  15. Using employee experts to offer an interprofessional diabetes risk reduction program to fellow employees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenz, Thomas L; Gillespie, Nicole D; Skrabal, Maryann Z; Faulkner, Michele A; Skradski, Jessica J; Ferguson, Liz A; Pagenkemper, Joni J; Moore, Geri A; Jorgensen, Diane

    2013-03-01

    A recent increase in the incidence of diabetes and pre-diabetes is causing many employers to spend more of their healthcare benefit budgets to manage the conditions. A self-insured university in the USA has implemented an interprofessional diabetes mellitus risk reduction program using its own employee faculty and staff experts to help fellow employees manage their diabetes and pre-diabetes. The interprofessional team consists of five pharmacists, a dietitian, an exercise physiologist, a health educator and a licensed mental health practitioner. In addition, the participant's physician serves as a consultant to the program, as does a human resources healthcare benefits specialist and a wellness coordinator. The volunteer program takes place at the worksite during regular business hours and is free of charge to the employees. The faculty and staff delivering the program justify the cost of their time through an interprofessional educational model that the program will soon provide to university students.

  16. Component of the risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martinez, I.; Campon, G.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation reviews issues like analysis of risk (Codex), management risk, preliminary activities manager, relationship between government and industries, microbiological danger and communication of risk

  17. Unsharpness-risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Preyssl, C.

    1986-01-01

    Safety analysis provides the only tool for evaluation and quantification of rare or hypothetical events leading to system failure. So far probability theory has been used for the fault- and event-tree methodology. The phenomenon of uncertainties constitutes an important aspect in risk analysis. Uncertainties can be classified as originating from 'randomness' or 'fuzziness'. Probability theory addresses randomness only. The use of 'fuzzy set theory' makes it possible to include both types of uncertainty in the mathematical model of risk analysis. Thus the 'fuzzy fault tree' is expressed in 'possibilistic' terms implying a range of simplifications and improvements. 'Human failure' and 'conditionality' can be treated correctly. Only minimum-maximum relations are used to combine the possibility distributions of events. Various event-classifications facilitate the interpretation of the results. The method is demonstrated by application to a TRIGA-research reactor. Uncertainty as an implicit part of 'fuzzy risk' can be quantified explicitly using an 'uncertainty measure'. Based on this the 'degree of relative compliance' with a quantizative safety goal can be defined for a particular risk. The introduction of 'weighting functionals' guarantees the consideration of the importances attached to different parts of the risk exceeding or complying with the standard. The comparison of two reference systems is demonstrated in a case study. It is concluded that any application of the 'fuzzy risk analysis' has to be free of any hypostatization when reducing subjective to objective information. (Author)

  18. [Menus offered in long-term care homes: quality of meal service and nutritional analysis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez Rejón, Ana Isabel; Ruiz López, María Dolores; Malafarina, Vincenzo; Puerta, Antonio; Zuñiga, Antonia; Artacho, Reyes

    2017-06-05

    Institutionalization is a risk factor for malnutrition. Low energy intake and/or nutrient deficiencies are considered to be the main causes. To evaluate the quality of meals and meal service as well as the nutritional value of the main menus (regular menu, menu for diabetics, and pureed menu) offered in three long-term care (LTC) homes located in the metropolitan area of Granada (Spain). Cross-sectional study. A validated "quality of meals and meal service" set of indicators was applied. The menus were assessed by weighed food records on 14 consecutive days. The results were compared with the dietary reference intakes (DRIs) and the recommended number of servings. Important deficiencies in the quality of meals and meal service have been reported. Average energy varies from 1,788 to 2,124 kcal/day in the regular menus, from 1,687 to 1,924 kcal/day in the menus for diabetics, and from 1,518 to 1,639 kcal/day in the pureed menus. Average protein varied from 71.4 to 75.4 g/day, from 72.6 to 76.1 g/day, and from 50.5 to 54.7 g/day, respectively. None of the menus complied with the recommendations for fiber, potassium, magnesium, iodine, vitamin D, vitamin E, folate, nor for vegetables, fruit, milk products, olive oil, legumes, or nuts. It is necessary to ensure the implementation of regular routines for controlling the quality of meals and meal service as well as the nutritional value of the menus offered in LTC homes.

  19. Adversarial risk analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Banks, David L; Rios Insua, David

    2015-01-01

    Flexible Models to Analyze Opponent Behavior A relatively new area of research, adversarial risk analysis (ARA) informs decision making when there are intelligent opponents and uncertain outcomes. Adversarial Risk Analysis develops methods for allocating defensive or offensive resources against intelligent adversaries. Many examples throughout illustrate the application of the ARA approach to a variety of games and strategic situations. The book shows decision makers how to build Bayesian models for the strategic calculation of their opponents, enabling decision makers to maximize their expected utility or minimize their expected loss. This new approach to risk analysis asserts that analysts should use Bayesian thinking to describe their beliefs about an opponent's goals, resources, optimism, and type of strategic calculation, such as minimax and level-k thinking. Within that framework, analysts then solve the problem from the perspective of the opponent while placing subjective probability distributions on a...

  20. A decision analytical cost analysis of offering ECV in a UK district general hospital

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Burr Robin

    2001-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Objective To determine the care pathways and implications of offering mothers the choice of external cephalic version (ECV at term for singleton babies who present with an uncomplicated breech pregnancy versus assisted breech delivery or elective caesarean. Design A prospective observational audit to construct a decision analysis of uncomplicated full term breech presentations. Setting The North Staffordshire NHS Trust. Subjects All women (n = 176 who presented at full term with a breech baby without complications during July 1995 and June 1997. Main outcome measures The study determined to compare the outcome in terms of the costs and cost consequences for the care pathways that resulted from whether a women chose to accept the offer of ECV or not. All the associated events were then mapped for the two possible pathways. The costs were considered only within the hospital setting, from the perspective of the health care provider up to the point of delivery. Results The additional costs for ECV, assisted breech delivery and elective caesarean over and above a normal birth were £186.70, £425.36 and £1,955.22 respectively. The total expected cost of the respective care pathways for "ECV accepted" and "ECV not accepted" (including the probability of adverse events were £1,452 and £1,828 respectively, that is the cost of delivery through the ECV care pathways is less costly than the non ECV delivery care pathway. Conclusions Implementing an ECV service may yield cost savings in secondary care over and above the traditional delivery methods for breech birth of assisted delivery or caesarean section. The scale of these expected cost savings are in the range of £248 to £376 per patient. This converts to a total expected cost saving of between £43,616 and £44,544 for the patient cohort considered in this study.

  1. Special Offers

    CERN Multimedia

    Association du personnel

    2011-01-01

    Walibi Rhône-Alpes is open until 31 October. Reduced prices for children and adults at this French attraction park in Les Avenières. For more information about all these offers, please consult our web site: http://association.web.cern.ch/association/en/OtherActivities/Offers.html

  2. Special offers

    CERN Multimedia

    Staff Association

    2011-01-01

    Are you a member of the Staff Association? Did you know that as a member you can benefit from the following special offers: BCGE (Banque Cantonale de Genève): personalized banking solutions with preferential conditions. TPG: reduced rates on annual transport passes for active and retired staff. Aquaparc: reduced ticket prices for children and adults at this Swiss waterpark in Le Bouveret. FNAC: 5% reduction on FNAC vouchers. For more information about all these offers, please consult our web site: http://association.web.cern.ch/association/en/OtherActivities/Offers.html

  3. Special Offers

    CERN Multimedia

    Association du personnel

    2011-01-01

    Are you a member of the Staff Association? Did you know that as a member you can benefit from the following special offers: BCGE (Banque Cantonale de Genève): personalized banking solutions with preferential conditions. TPG: reduced rates on annual transport passes for active and retired staff. Aquaparc: reduced ticket prices for children and adults at this Swiss waterpark in Le Bouveret. Walibi: reduced prices for children and adults at this French attraction park in Les Avenières. FNAC: 5% reduction on FNAC vouchers. For more information about all these offers, please consult our web site: http://association.web.cern.ch/association/en/OtherActivities/Offers.html

  4. What can organisational theory offer knowledge translation in healthcare? A thematic and lexical analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dadich, Ann; Doloswala, Navin

    2018-05-10

    Despite the relative abundance of frameworks and models to guide implementation science, the explicit use of theory is limited. Bringing together two seemingly disparate fields of research, this article asks, what can organisational theory offer implementation science? This is examined by applying a theoretical lens that incorporates agency, institutional, and situated change theories to understand the implementation of healthcare knowledge into practice. Interviews were conducted with 20 general practitioners (GPs) before and after using a resource to facilitate evidence-based sexual healthcare. Research material was analysed using two approaches - researcher-driven thematic coding and lexical analysis, which was relatively less researcher-driven. The theoretical lens elucidated the complex pathways of knowledge translation. More specifically, agency theory revealed tensions between the GP as agent and their organisations and patients as principals. Institutional theory highlighted the importance of GP-embeddedness within their chosen specialty of general practice; their medical profession; and the practice in which they worked. Situated change theory exposed the role of localised adaptations over time - a metamorphosis. This study has theoretical, methodological, and practical implications. Theoretically, it is the first to examine knowledge translation using a lens premised on agency, institutional, and situated change theories. Methodologically, the study highlights the complementary value of researcher-driven and researcher-guided analysis of qualitative research material. Practically, this study signposts opportunities to facilitate knowledge translation - more specifically, it suggests that efforts to shape clinician practices should accommodate the interrelated influence of the agent and the institution, and recognise that change can be ever so subtle.

  5. Offers INTERSOCCER

    CERN Multimedia

    Staff Association

    2014-01-01

      Summer Football camps   New offer to the members of the Staff Association – INTERSOCCER: 12% discount on summer football camps and courses for children (bilingual) so do not hesitate anymore!    

  6. Environmental risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lima-e-Silva, Pedro Paulo de

    1996-01-01

    The conventional Risk Analysis (RA) relates usually a certain undesired event frequency with its consequences. Such technique is used nowadays in Brazil to analyze accidents and their consequences strictly under the human approach, valuing loss of human equipment, human structures and human lives, without considering the damage caused to natural resources that keep life possible on Earth. This paradigm was developed primarily because of the Homo sapiens' lack of perception upon the natural web needed to sustain his own life. In reality, the Brazilian professionals responsible today for licensing, auditing and inspecting environmental aspects of human activities face huge difficulties in making technical specifications and procedures leading to acceptable levels of impact, furthermore considering the intrinsic difficulties to define those levels. Therefore, in Brazil the RA technique is a weak tool for licensing for many reasons, and of them are its short scope (only accident considerations) and wrong a paradigm (only human direct damages). A paper from the author about the former was already proposed to the 7th International Conference on Environmetrics, past July'96, USP-SP. This one discusses the extension of the risk analysis concept to take into account environmental consequences, transforming the conventional analysis into a broader methodology named here as Environmental Risk Analysis. (author)

  7. Risk analysis and reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uppuluri, V.R.R.

    1979-01-01

    Mathematical foundations of risk analysis are addressed. The importance of having the same probability space in order to compare different experiments is pointed out. Then the following topics are discussed: consequences as random variables with infinite expectations; the phenomenon of rare events; series-parallel systems and different kinds of randomness that could be imposed on such systems; and the problem of consensus of estimates of expert opinion

  8. THE COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS REGARDING THE SERVICES OFFERED BY THE INTERNATIONAL HOTEL CHAINS FROM ROMANIA

    OpenAIRE

    CRISTINA FLESERIU

    2010-01-01

    The hotel services are a part from the tourism services, or can be defined as an independent offer. In the second place, the most important thing is the need of accommodation (probably also food and other additional services – conference room, recreational facilities, etc.) from those that are traveling for business or with some other personal problems. As follow, in Romania, all the hospitality business units must offer a range of additional services, with or without pay. Due to the fact tha...

  9. Special Offers

    CERN Multimedia

    Association du personnel

    2011-01-01

    Are you a member of the Staff Association? Did you know that as a member you can benefit from the following special offers: BCGE (Banque Cantonale de Genève): personalized banking solutions with preferential conditions.     TPG: reduced rates on annual transport passes for active and retired staff.     Aquaparc: reduced ticket prices for children and adults at this Swiss waterpark in Le Bouveret.     Walibi: reduced prices for children and adults at this French attraction park in Les Avenières.       FNAC: 5% reduction on FNAC vouchers.       For more information about all these offers, please consult our web site: http://association.web.cern.ch/association/en/OtherActivities/Offers.html

  10. Special Offers

    CERN Multimedia

    Staff Association

    2011-01-01

    Are you a member of the Staff Association? Did you know that as a member you can benefit from the following special offers: BCGE (Banque Cantonale de Genève): personalized banking solutions with preferential conditions.     TPG: reduced rates on annual transport passes for all active and retired staff.     Aquaparc: reduced ticket prices for children and adults at this Swiss waterpark in Le Bouveret.     Walibi: reduced prices for children and adults at this French attraction park in Les Avenières.       FNAC: 5% reduction on FNAC vouchers.       For more information about all these offers, please consult our web site: http://association.web.cern.ch/association/en/OtherActivities/Offers.html

  11. Mare Risk Analysis monitor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fuente Prieto, I.; Alonso, P.; Carretero Fernandino, J. A.

    2000-01-01

    The Nuclear Safety Council's requirement that Spanish power plants comply with the requirements of the Maintenance Rule associated with plant risk assessment during power operation, arising from the partial unavailability of systems due to the maintenance activities, has led to need for additional tools to facilitate compliance with said requirements. While the impact on risk produced by individual equipment unavailabilities can easily be evaluated, either qualitatively or quantitatively, the process becomes more complicated when un programmed unavailabilities simultaneously occur in various systems, making it necessary to evaluate their functional impact. It is especially complex in the case of support systems that can affect the functionality of multiple systems. In view of the above, a computer application has been developed that is capable of providing the operator with quick answers based on the specific plant model in order to allow fast risk assessment using the information compiled as part of the Probabilistic Safety Analysis. The paper describes the most important characteristics of this application and the basic design requirements of the MARE Risk Monitor. (Author)

  12. Analysis and optimisation of calcium content in menus and dairy offer in Croatian kindergartens

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivana Rumora

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available The importance of healthy diet from the earliest age as well as its influence on human health is indisputable. Unbalanced diet in childhood can, along with unhealthy lifestyle (stress, smoking, physical inactivity, cause a number of diseases at a later age. Two week menus in 26 kindergartens from continental and coastal Croatia have been analysed, taking into consideration the type of kindergarten (public, private, or religious. The aim of this research is to determine the quality of the offer regarding the intake of milk and dairy products, which, regarding their bioavailability, represent a major source of calcium, an essential nutrient in the intensive growth phase of children and young people. Using basic statistics, significant differences were not determined neither in the regional offer of milk and dairy products in the different types of kindergartens nor in the content of calcium and phosphorus. Milk and dairy products were adequately represented in the weekly offer in both regions under observation, and the average offer contained 9.7±1.5 servings. Average content of calcium in daily menues is 714.5±235.9 mg, which is in agreement with dietary reference intake recommendations (300-800 mg and Croatian recommendations (400-700 mg. Use of fuzzy logic in creating new daily menus, by combining the existing offers enabled significant enlargement of the set of nutritionally acceptable menus as well as a greater diversity of meals.

  13. Methods for Risk Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alverbro, Karin

    2010-01-01

    Many decision-making situations today affect humans and the environment. In practice, many such decisions are made without an overall view and prioritise one or other of the two areas. Now and then these two areas of regulation come into conflict, e.g. the best alternative as regards environmental considerations is not always the best from a human safety perspective and vice versa. This report was prepared within a major project with the aim of developing a framework in which both the environmental aspects and the human safety aspects are integrated, and decisions can be made taking both fields into consideration. The safety risks have to be analysed in order to be successfully avoided and one way of doing this is to use different kinds of risk analysis methods. There is an abundance of existing methods to choose from and new methods are constantly being developed. This report describes some of the risk analysis methods currently available for analysing safety and examines the relationships between them. The focus here is mainly on human safety aspects

  14. Patient Segmentation Analysis Offers Significant Benefits For Integrated Care And Support.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vuik, Sabine I; Mayer, Erik K; Darzi, Ara

    2016-05-01

    Integrated care aims to organize care around the patient instead of the provider. It is therefore crucial to understand differences across patients and their needs. Segmentation analysis that uses big data can help divide a patient population into distinct groups, which can then be targeted with care models and intervention programs tailored to their needs. In this article we explore the potential applications of patient segmentation in integrated care. We propose a framework for population strategies in integrated care-whole populations, subpopulations, and high-risk populations-and show how patient segmentation can support these strategies. Through international case examples, we illustrate practical considerations such as choosing a segmentation logic, accessing data, and tailoring care models. Important issues for policy makers to consider are trade-offs between simplicity and precision, trade-offs between customized and off-the-shelf solutions, and the availability of linked data sets. We conclude that segmentation can provide many benefits to integrated care, and we encourage policy makers to support its use. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

  15. An Analysis of Students Enrolled to an Undergraduate University Course Offered Also Online

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scarabottolo, Nello

    2016-01-01

    This paper analyzes the main characteristics of the students enrolled to a three-years undergraduate course on Security of Computer Systems and Networks, offered in traditional, classroom based fashion as well as online at the University of Milan (Italy). This allows to compare classroom and online students from several points of view, and gives…

  16. How do underwriters value initial public offerings? An empirical analysis of the french IPO market

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P.G.J. Roosenboom (Peter)

    2007-01-01

    textabstractThis paper investigates how French underwriters value the stocks of companies they bring public. Underwriters often use several valuation methods to determine their fair value estimate of the initial public offering (IPO) firm's equity. We investigate five of these valuation methods:

  17. Special offer

    CERN Multimedia

    Staff Association

    2010-01-01

    Special offer for members of the Staff Association and their families 10% reduction on all products in the SEPHORA shop (sells perfume, beauty products etc.) in Val Thoiry ALL YEAR ROUND. Plus 20% reduction during their “vente privée”* three or four times a year. Simply present your Staff Association membership card when you make your purchase. * next “vente privée” from 24th to 29th May 2010  

  18. Special offer

    CERN Multimedia

    Staff Association

    2011-01-01

    SPECIAL OFFER FOR OUR MEMBERS Tarif unique Adulte/Enfant Entrée Zone terrestre 19 euros instead of 23 euros Entrée “Zone terrestre + aquatique” 24 euros instead of 31 euros Free for children under 3, with limited access to the attractions. Walibi Rhône-Alpes is open daily from 22 June to 31 August, and every week end from 3 September until 31 October. Closing of the “zone aquatique” 11 September.

  19. Diastolic pressure indices offer a novel approach to predicting risk of graft loss after pediatric heart transplant.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albers, Erin L; Bradford, Miranda C; Friedland-Little, Joshua M; Hong, Borah J; Kemna, Mariska S; Chen, Jonathan M; Law, Yuk M

    2018-03-01

    PH is a risk factor for GL after HTx. However, traditional parameters are not reliable predictors of risk in children. We hypothesized that DPI (dPAP and DPG) are predictive of GL in pediatric HTx recipients. The UNOS/SRTR database was reviewed to identify pediatric HTx recipients (age <18 years) between 1994 and 2013. Recipients with pretransplant hemodynamic data were grouped by diagnosis (CMP or CHD), and the groups were analyzed separately. Bivariate Cox regression analysis examined the association between hemodynamic variables and GL. DPI showed the strongest association with early GL in recipients with CMP (dPAP: HR = 1.25 [1.09-1.42]; DPG: 1.24 [1.11-1.38]). Among CHD recipients, DPI were associated with early GL in those with preexisting PH (dPAP: HR = 1.16 [1.01-1.33]; DPG: HR = 1.10 [1.00-1.21]). No cutoff values for "high-risk" DPI were identified, but a continuous relationship between higher DPI and risk of early GL was observed. DPI are associated with early GL in select pediatric HTx recipients. Our findings suggest that DPI should be considered as part of routine hemodynamic assessment for pediatric HTx candidates. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. Probabilistic risk analysis and terrorism risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ezell, Barry Charles; Bennett, Steven P; von Winterfeldt, Detlof; Sokolowski, John; Collins, Andrew J

    2010-04-01

    Since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and the subsequent establishment of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), considerable efforts have been made to estimate the risks of terrorism and the cost effectiveness of security policies to reduce these risks. DHS, industry, and the academic risk analysis communities have all invested heavily in the development of tools and approaches that can assist decisionmakers in effectively allocating limited resources across the vast array of potential investments that could mitigate risks from terrorism and other threats to the homeland. Decisionmakers demand models, analyses, and decision support that are useful for this task and based on the state of the art. Since terrorism risk analysis is new, no single method is likely to meet this challenge. In this article we explore a number of existing and potential approaches for terrorism risk analysis, focusing particularly on recent discussions regarding the applicability of probabilistic and decision analytic approaches to bioterrorism risks and the Bioterrorism Risk Assessment methodology used by the DHS and criticized by the National Academies and others.

  1. Analysis of Long-Term Performance of Initial Public Offerings in the brazilian stock market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elisa Elaine Moreira Teixeira

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5007/2175-8077.2012v14n33p79 This paper describes the results of a twofold study that compared the performance of Initial Public Offering (IPOs in the Brazilian stock market with that of incorporated company in 2004 and 2005 and also checked if these IPOs were included in the Bovespa Index (IBOV in this period. We first collected data on stock price variations every year subsequent to the public offering. Thereafter, we compared the IPOs’ rates with those of the public corporations. The results show that 81.25% of the IPOs had positive returns in the first and the second years of anniversary, and only 50% of them had positive return in the third year. The youngest companies had the highest returns, and 45% of them were included in the IBOV in the period under scrutiny. The comparison of the ratios showed that IPOs of any age are more valued than the comparison companies. As a conclusion, we can say that the IPOs’ performance was significantly better than that of the comparison companies in the period studied.

  2. HIV test offers and acceptance: New York State findings from the behavioral risk factor surveillance system and the National HIV behavioral surveillance, 2011-2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    John Leung, Shu-Yin; Sinclair, Amber H; Battles, Haven B; Swain, Carol-Ann E; French, Patrick Tyler; Anderson, Bridget J; Sowizral, Mycroft J; Ruberto, Rachael; Brissette, Ian; Lillquist, Patricia; Smith, Lou C

    2015-01-01

    The New York State HIV testing law requires that patients aged 13-64 years be offered HIV testing in health care settings. We investigated the extent to which HIV testing was offered and accepted during the 24 months after law enactment. We added local questions to the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) and the National HIV Behavioral Surveillance (NHBS) surveys asking respondents aged 18-64 years whether they were offered an HIV test in health care settings, and whether they had accepted testing. Statewide prevalence estimates of test offers and acceptance were obtained from a combined 2011-2012 BRFSS sample (N = 6,223). Local estimates for 2 high-risk populations were obtained from NHBS 2011 men who have sex with men (N = 329) and 2012 injection drug users (N = 188) samples. BRFSS data showed that 73% of New Yorkers received care in any health care setting in the past 12 months, of whom 25% were offered an HIV test. Sixty percent accepted the test when offered. The levels of test offer increased from 20% to 29% over time, whereas acceptance levels decreased from 68% to 53%. NHBS data showed that 81% of men who have sex with men received care, of whom 43% were offered an HIV test. Eighty-eight percent accepted the test when offered. Eighty-five percent of injection drug users received care, of whom 63% were offered an HIV test, and 63% accepted the test when offered. We found evidence of partial and increasing implementation of the HIV testing law. Importantly, these studies demonstrated New Yorkers' willingness to accept an offered HIV test as part of routine care in health care settings.

  3. International Conference on Risk Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Oliveira, Teresa; Rigas, Alexandros; Gulati, Sneh

    2015-01-01

    This book covers the latest results in the field of risk analysis. Presented topics include probabilistic models in cancer research, models and methods in longevity, epidemiology of cancer risk, engineering reliability and economical risk problems. The contributions of this volume originate from the 5th International Conference on Risk Analysis (ICRA 5). The conference brought together researchers and practitioners working in the field of risk analysis in order to present new theoretical and computational methods with applications in biology, environmental sciences, public health, economics and finance.

  4. Techno-Economic Analysis of BEV Service Providers Offering Battery Swapping Services

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Neubauer, J. S.; Pesaran, A.

    2013-01-01

    Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) offer the potential to reduce both oil imports and greenhouse gas emissions, but high upfront costs, battery-limited vehicle range, and concern over high battery replacement costs may discourage potential buyers. A subscription model in which a service provider owns the battery and supplies access to battery swapping infrastructure could reduce upfront and replacement costs for batteries with a predictable monthly fee, while expanding BEV range. Assessing the costs and benefits of such a proposal are complicated by many factors, including customer drive patterns, the amount of required infrastructure, battery life, etc. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory has applied its Battery Ownership Model to compare the economics and utility of BEV battery swapping service plan options to more traditional direct ownership options. Our evaluation process followed four steps: (1) identifying drive patterns best suited to battery swapping service plans, (2) modeling service usage statistics for the selected drive patterns, (3) calculating the cost-of-service plan options, and (4) evaluating the economics of individual drivers under realistically priced service plans. A service plan option can be more cost-effective than direct ownership for drivers who wish to operate a BEV as their primary vehicle where alternative options for travel beyond the single-charge range are expensive, and a full-coverage-yet-cost-effective regional infrastructure network can be deployed. However, when assumed cost of gasoline, tax structure, and absence of purchase incentives are factored in, our calculations show the service plan BEV is rarely more cost-effective than direct ownership of a conventional vehicle.

  5. Techno-Economic Analysis of BEV Service Providers Offering Battery Swapping Services: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Neubauer, J.; Pesaran, A.

    2013-03-01

    Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) offer the potential to reduce both oil imports and greenhouse gas emissions, but high upfront costs, battery-limited vehicle range, and concern over high battery replacement costs may discourage potential buyers. A subscription model in which a service provider owns the battery and supplies access to battery swapping infrastructure could reduce upfront and replacement costs for batteries with a predictable monthly fee, while expanding BEV range. Assessing the costs and benefits of such a proposal are complicated by many factors, including customer drive patterns, the amount of required infrastructure, battery life, etc. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory has applied its Battery Ownership Model to compare the economics and utility of BEV battery swapping service plan options to more traditional direct ownership options. Our evaluation process followed four steps: (1) identifying drive patterns best suited to battery swapping service plans, (2) modeling service usage statistics for the selected drive patterns, (3) calculating the cost-of-service plan options, and (4) evaluating the economics of individual drivers under realistically priced service plans. A service plan option can be more cost-effective than direct ownership for drivers who wish to operate a BEV as their primary vehicle where alternative options for travel beyond the single-charge range are expensive, and a full-coverage-yet-cost-effective regional infrastructure network can be deployed. However, when assumed cost of gasoline, tax structure, and absence of purchase incentives are factored in, our calculations show the service plan BEV is rarely more cost-effective than direct ownership of a conventional vehicle.

  6. The 2009 Analysis of Information Remaining on Disks Offered for Sale on the Second Hand Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andy Jones

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The ever increasing use and reliance upon computers in both the public and private sector has led to enormous numbers of computers being disposed of at the end of their useful life within an organisation. As the cost of computers has dropped, their use in the home has also continued to increase. In most organisations, computers have a relatively short life and are replaced on a regular basis with the result that, if not properly cleansed of data, they are released into the public domain containing data that can be relatively up to date. This problem is exacerbated by the increasing popularity and use of smart phones, which also contain significant storage capacity. From the results of the research it remains clear that the majority of organisations and private individuals that are using these computers still remain ignorant or misinformed of the potential volume and type of information that is stored on the hard disks contained within these systems. The evidence of the research is that neither organisations nor individuals have considered, or are aware of, the potential impact of the information that is contained in the disks from these systems becoming available to an unintended third party.This is the fifth study in an ongoing research programme being conducted into the levels and types of information that remain on computer hard disks that have been offered for sale on the second hand market. This ongoing research series has been undertaken to gain an understanding of the level and types of information that remains on these disks, to determine the damage that could potentially be caused if the information was misused, and to determine whether there are any developing trends. The disks used have been purchased in a number of countries.The rationale for this was to determine whether there are any national or regional differences in the way that computer disks are disposed of and to compare the results for any regional or temporal trends. The

  7. The 2007 Analysis of Information Remaining on Disks Offered for Sale on the Second Hand Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andy Jones

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available All organisations, whether in the public or private sector, increasingly use computers and other devices that contain computer hard disks for the storage and processing of information relating to their business, their employees or their customers. Individual home users also increasingly use computers and other devices containing computer hard disks for the storage and processing of information relating to their private, personal affairs. It continues to be clear that the majority of organisations and individual home users still remain ignorant or misinformed of the volume and type of information that is stored on the hard disks that these devices contain and have not considered, or are unaware of, the potential impact of this information becoming available to their competitors or to people with criminal intent.This is the third study in an ongoing research effort that is being conducted into the volume and type of information that remains on computer hard disks offered for sale on the second hand market.  The purpose of the research has been to gain an understanding of the information that remains on the disk and to determine the level of damage that could, potentially be caused, if the information fell into the wrong hands.  The study examines disks that have been obtained in a number of countries to determine whether there is any detectable national or regional variance in the way that the disposal of computer disks is addressed and to compare the results for any other detectable regional or temporal trends.The first study was carried out in 2005 and was repeated in 2006 with the scope extended to include additional countries. The studies were carried out by British Telecommunications, the University of Glamorgan in the UK and Edith Cowan University in Australia. The basis of the research was to acquire a number of second hand computer disks from various sources and then determine whether they still contained information relating to a

  8. Do modern total knee replacements offer better value for money? A health economic analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamilton, David F; Clement, Nicholas D; Burnett, Richard; Patton, James T; Moran, Mathew; Howie, Colin R; Simpson, A H R W; Gaston, Paul

    2013-11-01

    Cost effectiveness is an increasingly important factor in today's healthcare environment, and selection of arthroplasty implant is not exempt from such concerns. Quality adjusted life years (QALYs) are the typical tool for this type of evaluation. Using this methodology, joint arthroplasty has been shown to be cost effective; however, studies directly comparing differing prostheses are lacking. Data was gathered in a single-centre prospective double-blind randomised controlled trial comparing the outcome of modern and traditional knee implants, using the Short Form 6 dimensional (SF-6D) score and quality adjusted life year (QALY) methodology. There was significant improvement in the SF-6D score for both groups at one year (p traditional design at one year (0.141 versus 0.143, p = 0.94). This difference resulted in the modern implant costing £298 less per QALY at one year. This study demonstrates that modern implant technology does not influence the cost-effectiveness of TKA using the SF-6D and QALY methodology. This type of analysis however assesses health status, and is not sensitive to joint specific function. Evolutionary design changes in implant technology are thus unlikely to influence QALY analysis following joint replacement, which has important implications for implant procurement.

  9. Risk and safety analysis of nuclear systems

    CERN Document Server

    Lee, John C

    2011-01-01

    The book has been developed in conjunction with NERS 462, a course offered every year to seniors and graduate students in the University of Michigan NERS program. The first half of the book covers the principles of risk analysis, the techniques used to develop and update a reliability data base, the reliability of multi-component systems, Markov methods used to analyze the unavailability of systems with repairs, fault trees and event trees used in probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs), and failure modes of systems. All of this material is general enough that it could be used in non-nuclear a

  10. MATHEMATICAL RISK ANALYSIS: VIA NICHOLAS RISK MODEL AND BAYESIAN ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anass BAYAGA

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this second part of a two-phased study was to explorethe predictive power of quantitative risk analysis (QRA method andprocess within Higher Education Institution (HEI. The method and process investigated the use impact analysis via Nicholas risk model and Bayesian analysis, with a sample of hundred (100 risk analysts in a historically black South African University in the greater Eastern Cape Province.The first findings supported and confirmed previous literature (KingIII report, 2009: Nicholas and Steyn, 2008: Stoney, 2007: COSA, 2004 that there was a direct relationship between risk factor, its likelihood and impact, certiris paribus. The second finding in relation to either controlling the likelihood or the impact of occurrence of risk (Nicholas risk model was that to have a brighter risk reward, it was important to control the likelihood ofoccurrence of risks as compared with its impact so to have a direct effect on entire University. On the Bayesian analysis, thus third finding, the impact of risk should be predicted along three aspects. These aspects included the human impact (decisions made, the property impact (students and infrastructural based and the business impact. Lastly, the study revealed that although in most business cases, where as business cycles considerably vary dependingon the industry and or the institution, this study revealed that, most impacts in HEI (University was within the period of one academic.The recommendation was that application of quantitative risk analysisshould be related to current legislative framework that affects HEI.

  11. Country risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    David, A.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reports that the oil industry has been an internationally based industry that has been heavily dependent on outside financing sources. Historically, financing came from investment houses that, in most cases, participated in the projects as equity investors. However, investment companies can no longer satisfy the capital requirements of the current high level of exploration and development activities. The current trend is to involve commercial banks on a purely lending basis. Commercial banks, by their nature, are risk averse. In the case of oil and gas exploration and production they are asked to take not only technical risk and price risk but geopolitical risk as well. Methods have been developed by commercial banks to reduce technical and price risks to point which enables them to be comfortable with a loan. However, geopolitical risks are more difficult to assess. The risk associated with many countries are the nationalization of the investment, new tax restrictions, restriction of currency movements, and/or revisions to the production sharing agreements

  12. Analysis of Information Remaining on Hand Held Devices Offered for Sale on the Second Hand Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andy Jones

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available The ownership and use of mobile phones, Personal Digital Assistants and other hand held devices is now ubiquitous both for home and business use. The majority of these devices have a high initial cost, a relatively short period before they become obsolescent and a relatively low second hand value.  As a result of this, when the devices are replaced, there are indications that they tend to be discarded.  As technology has continued to develop, it has led to an increasing diversity in the number and type of devices that are available, and the processing power and the storage capacity of the digital storage in the device. All organisations, whether in the public or private sector increasingly use hand held devices that contain digital media for the storage of information relating to their business, their employees or their customers. Similarly, individual private users increasingly use hand held devices containing digital media for the storage of information relating to their private lives.The research revealed that a significant number of organisations and private users are ignorant or misinformed about the volume and type of information that is stored on the hand held devices and the media on which it is stored.  It is apparent that they have either not considered, or are unaware of, the potential impact of this information becoming available to their competitors or those with criminal intent.This main purpose of this study was to gain an understanding of the volume and type of information that may remain on hand held devices that are offered for sale on the second hand market.  A second aim of the research was to determine the level of damage that could, potentially be caused, if the information that remains on the devices fell into the wrong hands.  The study examined a number of hand held devices that had been obtained from sources in the UK and Australia that ranged from internet auction sites, to private sales and commercial

  13. Risk analysis of Odelouca cofferdam

    OpenAIRE

    Pimenta, L.; Caldeira, L.; Maranha das Neves, E.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we present the risk analysis of Odelouca Cofferdam, using an event tree analysis. The initializing events, failure modes and analysed limit states are discussed based on an influence diagram. The constructed event trees and their interpretation are presented. The obtained risk values are represented in an FN plot superimposed to the acceptability and tolerability risk limits proposed for Portuguese dams. Initially, particular emphasis is placed on the main characteristic...

  14. The 2006 Analysis of Information Remaining on Disks Offered for Sale on the Second Hand Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andy Jones

    2006-09-01

    Full Text Available All organisations, whether in the public or private sector, use computers for the storage and processing of information relating to their business or services, their employees and their customers. A large proportion of families and individuals in their homes now also use personal computers and, both intentionally and inadvertently, often store on those computers personal information. It is clear that most organisations and individuals continue to be unaware of the information that may be stored on the hard disks that the computers contain, and have not considered what may happen to the information after the disposal of the equipment.In 2005, joint research was carried out by the University of Glamorgan in Wales and Edith Cowan University in Australia to determine whether second hand computer disks that were purchased from a number of sources still contained any information or whether the information had been effectively erased. The research revealed that, for the majority of the disks that were examined, the information had not been effectively removed and as a result, both organisations and individuals were potentially exposed to a range of potential crimes.  It is worthy of note that in the disposal of this equipment, the organisations involved had failed to meet their statutory, regulatory and legal obligations.This paper describes a second research project that was carried out in 2006 which repeated the research carried out the previous year and also extended the scope of the research to include additional countries.  The methodology used was the same as that in the previous year and the disks that were used for the research were again supplied blind by a third party. The research involved the forensic imaging of the disks which was followed by an analysis of the disks to determine what information remained and whether it could be easily recovered using publicly available tools and techniques.

  15. Campylobacter Risk Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nauta, Maarten

    In several countries quantitative microbiological risk assessments (QMRAs) have been performed for Campylobacter in chicken meat. The models constructed for this purpose provide a good example of the development of QMRA in general and illustrate the diversity of available methods. Despite...... the differences between the models, the most prominent conclusions of the QMRAs are similar. These conclusions for example relate to the large risk of highly contaminated meat products and the insignificance of contamination from Campylobacter positive flocks to negative flocks during slaughter and processing...

  16. Risk analysis: opening the process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, Ph.; Mays, C.

    1998-01-01

    This conference on risk analysis took place in Paris, 11-14 october 1999. Over 200 paper where presented in the seven following sessions: perception; environment and health; persuasive risks; objects and products; personal and collective involvement; assessment and valuation; management. A rational approach to risk analysis has been developed in the three last decades. Techniques for risk assessment have been thoroughly enhanced, risk management approaches have been developed, decision making processes have been clarified, the social dimensions of risk perception and management have been investigated. Nevertheless this construction is being challenged by recent events which reveal how deficits in stakeholder involvement, openness and democratic procedures can undermine risk management actions. Indeed, the global process most components of risk analysis may be radically called into question. Food safety has lately been a prominent issue, but now debates appear, or old debates are revisited in the domains of public health, consumer products safety, waste management, environmental risks, nuclear installations, automobile safety and pollution. To meet the growing pressures for efficiency, openness, accountability, and multi-partner communication in risk analysis, institutional changes are underway in many European countries. However, the need for stakeholders to develop better insight into the process may lead to an evolution of all the components of risks analysis, even in its most (technical' steps. For stakeholders of different professional background, political projects, and responsibilities, risk identification procedures must be rendered understandable, quantitative risk assessment must be intelligible and accommodated in action proposals, ranging from countermeasures to educational programs to insurance mechanisms. Management formats must be open to local and political input and other types of operational feedback. (authors)

  17. Professional dental and oral surgery liability in Italy: a comparative analysis of the insurance products offered to health workers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Lorenzo, Pierpaolo; Paternoster, Mariano; Nugnes, Mariarosaria; Pantaleo, Giuseppe; Graziano, Vincenzo; Niola, Massimo

    2016-01-01

    In Italy there has been an increase in claims for damages for alleged medical malpractice. A study was therefore conducted that aimed at assessing the content of the coverage of insurance policy contracts offered to oral health professionals by the insurance market. The sample analysed composed of 11 insurance policy contracts for professional dental liability offered from 2010 to 2015 by leading insurance companies operating in the Italian market. The insurance products analysed are structured on the "claims made" clause. No policy contract examined covers the damage due to the failure to acquire consent for dental treatment and, in most cases, damage due to unsatisfactory outcomes of treatment of an aesthetic nature and the failure to respect regulatory obligations on privacy. On entering into a professional liability insurance policy contract, the dentist should pay particular attention to the period covered by the guarantee, the risks both covered and excluded, as well as the extent of the limit of liability and any possible fixed/percentage excess. When choosing a professional liability contract, a dentist should examine the risks in relation to the professional activity carried out before signing.

  18. Advances in probabilistic risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hardung von Hardung, H.

    1982-01-01

    Probabilistic risk analysis can now look back upon almost a quarter century of intensive development. The early studies, whose methods and results are still referred to occasionally, however, only permitted rough estimates to be made of the probabilities of recognizable accident scenarios, failing to provide a method which could have served as a reference base in calculating the overall risk associated with nuclear power plants. The first truly solid attempt was the Rasmussen Study and, partly based on it, the German Risk Study. In those studies, probabilistic risk analysis has been given a much more precise basis. However, new methodologies have been developed in the meantime, which allow much more informative risk studies to be carried out. They have been found to be valuable tools for management decisions with respect to backfitting, reinforcement and risk limitation. Today they are mainly applied by specialized private consultants and have already found widespread application especially in the USA. (orig.) [de

  19. Introduction of the risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Campon, G.; Martinez, I.

    2013-01-01

    An introduction of risks analysis was given in the exposition which main issues were: food innocuousness, world, regional and national food context,change of paradigms, health definition, risk, codex, standardization, food chain role, trade agreement, codex alimentarius, food transmission diseases cost impact

  20. Hydroproject risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murdock, R.V.; Gulliver, J.S.

    1991-01-01

    Traditionally, economic feasibility studies performed for potential hydropower plant sites have included either no uncertainty or at best an ad hoc value associated with estimated benefits. However, formal methods for analyzing uncertainty do exist and have been outlined in the past. An application of these methods is demonstrated through conversion of a hydropower survey program, HYFEAS, to run on LOTUS 1-2-3, using the add-in software package RISK. In this paper the program principals are outlined and a case study of it's application to a hydropower site is presented

  1. Active offer of health services in French in Ontario: Analysis of reorganization and management strategies of health care organizations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farmanova, Elina; Bonneville, Luc; Bouchard, Louise

    2018-01-01

    The availability of health services in French is not only weak but also inexistent in some regions in Canada. As a result, estimated 78% of more than a million of Francophones living in a minority situation in Canada experience difficulties accessing health care in French. To promote the delivery of health services in French, publicly funded organizations are encouraged to take measures to ensure that French-language services are clearly visible, available, easily accessible, and equivalent to the quality of services offered in English. This study examines the reorganization and management strategies taken by health care organizations in Ontario that provide health services in French. Review and analysis of designation plans of a sample of health care organizations. Few health care organizations providing services in French have concrete strategies to guarantee availability, visibility, and accessibility of French-language services. Implementation of the active offer of French-language services is likely to be difficult and slow. The Ontario government must strengthen collaboration with health care organizations, Francophone communities, and other key actors participating in the designation process to help health care organizations build capacities for the effective offer of French-language services. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  2. A students' Needs-analysis Study of Translation Studies Curriculum offered at Master’s level in Iranian Universities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Navid Nasrollahi Shahri

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to investigate the program of Translation Studies, offered in Iranian universities at the level of Master, in terms of its curriculum through a needs analysis model offered by Altschuld and Witkin (1995. To do so, after a review of the related literature and conducting a documentary analysis, the researchers chose to look at the issue from different perspectives. Current instructors, professionals who are involved in the business of translation and a number of graduated students were interviewed so as to gather enough data to design a questionnaire, which constitutes the backbone of the study. Since the study aimed at students’ perception, the survey was conducted on students of Translation Studies program, which was based on the interviews with instructors, graduates of the program and the professionals working in the market. Afterward, the questionnaire data were gathered and, subsequently, went under statistical procedures. Based on the results, the researchers came up with practical recommendations for curriculum renewal, based on the needs-analysis model adopted. As this study  has adopted a triangulation approach to investigate the curriculum, the results and recommendations, although limited, can be of great use to educators, curriculum developers and translator trainers in particular.

  3. New algorithm for risk analysis in radiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Torres, Antonio; Montes de Oca, Joe

    2015-01-01

    Risk analyses applied to radiotherapy treatments have become an undeniable necessity, considering the dangers generated by the combination of using powerful radiation fields on patients and the occurrence of human errors and equipment failures during these treatments. The technique par excellence to execute these analyses has been the risk matrix. This paper presents the development of a new algorithm to execute the task with wide graphic and analytic potentialities, thus transforming it into a very useful option for risk monitoring and the optimization of quality assurance. The system SECURE- MR, which is the basic software of this algorithm, has been successfully used in risk analysis regarding different kinds of radiotherapies. Compared to previous methods, It offers new possibilities of analysis considering risk controlling factors as the robustness of reducers of initiators frequency and its consequences. Their analytic capacities and graphs allow novel developments to classify risk contributing factors, to represent information processes as well as accidental sequences. The paper shows the application of the proposed system to a generic process of radiotherapy treatment using a lineal accelerator. (author)

  4. Repetitive flood victims and acceptance of FEMA mitigation offers: an analysis with community-system policy implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kick, Edward L; Fraser, James C; Fulkerson, Gregory M; McKinney, Laura A; De Vries, Daniel H

    2011-07-01

    Of all natural disasters, flooding causes the greatest amount of economic and social damage. The United States' Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) uses a number of hazard mitigation grant programmes for flood victims, including mitigation offers to relocate permanently repetitive flood loss victims. This study examines factors that help to explain the degree of difficulty repetitive flood loss victims experience when they make decisions about relocating permanently after multiple flood losses. Data are drawn from interviews with FEMA officials and a survey of flood victims from eight repetitive flooding sites. The qualitative and quantitative results show the importance of rational choices by flood victims in their mitigation decisions, as they relate to financial variables, perceptions of future risk, attachments to home and community, and the relationships between repetitive flood loss victims and the local flood management officials who help them. The results offer evidence to suggest the value of a more community-system approach to FEMA relocation practices. © 2011 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2011.

  5. An actuarial analysis shows that offering lung cancer screening as an insurance benefit would save lives at relatively low cost.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pyenson, Bruce S; Sander, Marcia S; Jiang, Yiding; Kahn, Howard; Mulshine, James L

    2012-04-01

    Lung cancer screening is not established as a public health practice, yet the results of a recent large randomized controlled trial showed that screening with low-dose spiral computed tomography reduces lung cancer mortality. Using actuarial models, this study estimated the costs and benefits of annual lung cancer screening offered as a commercial insurance benefit in the high-risk US population ages 50-64. Assuming current commercial reimbursement rates for treatment, we found that screening would cost about $1 per insured member per month in 2012 dollars. The cost per life-year saved would be below $19,000, an amount that compares favorably with screening for cervical, breast, and colorectal cancers. Our results suggest that commercial insurers should consider lung cancer screening of high-risk individuals to be high-value coverage and provide it as a benefit to people who are at least fifty years old and have a smoking history of thirty pack-years or more. We also believe that payers and patients should demand screening from high-quality, low-cost providers, thus helping set an example of efficient system innovation.

  6. STOCHASTIC METHODS IN RISK ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimíra OSADSKÁ

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we review basic stochastic methods which can be used to extend state-of-the-art deterministic analytical methods for risk analysis. We can conclude that the standard deterministic analytical methods highly depend on the practical experience and knowledge of the evaluator and therefore, the stochastic methods should be introduced. The new risk analysis methods should consider the uncertainties in input values. We present how large is the impact on the results of the analysis solving practical example of FMECA with uncertainties modelled using Monte Carlo sampling.

  7. Evaluating the risks of clinical research: direct comparative analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rid, Annette; Abdoler, Emily; Roberson-Nay, Roxann; Pine, Daniel S; Wendler, David

    2014-09-01

    Many guidelines and regulations allow children and adolescents to be enrolled in research without the prospect of clinical benefit when it poses minimal risk. However, few systematic methods exist to determine when research risks are minimal. This situation has led to significant variation in minimal risk judgments, raising concern that some children are not being adequately protected. To address this concern, we describe a new method for implementing the widely endorsed "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk. This standard defines research risks as minimal when they do not exceed the risks posed by daily life activities or routine examinations. This study employed a conceptual and normative analysis, and use of an illustrative example. Different risks are composed of the same basic elements: Type, likelihood, and magnitude of harm. Hence, one can compare the risks of research and the risks of daily life by comparing the respective basic elements with each other. We use this insight to develop a systematic method, direct comparative analysis, for implementing the "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk. The method offers a way of evaluating research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities, such as the risk of experiencing anxiety, stress, or other psychological harm. We thus illustrate how direct comparative analysis can be applied in practice by using it to evaluate whether the anxiety induced by a respiratory CO2 challenge poses minimal or greater than minimal risks in children and adolescents. Direct comparative analysis is a systematic method for applying the "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk to research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities. It thereby offers a method to protect children and adolescents in research, while ensuring that important studies are not blocked because of unwarranted concerns about research risks.

  8. ProRisk : risk analysis instrument : developed for William properties

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Doorn, W.H.W.; Egeberg, Ingrid; Hendrickx, Kristoff; Kahramaner, Y.; Masseur, B.; Waijers, Koen; Weglicka, K.A.

    2005-01-01

    This report presents a Risk Analysis Instrument developed for William Properties. Based on the analysis, it appears that the practice of Risk Analysis exists within the organization, yet rather implicit. The Risk Analysis Instrument comes with a package of four components: an activity diagram, a

  9. Common approach of risks analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noviello, L.; Naviglio, A.

    1996-01-01

    Although, following the resolutions of the High German Court, the protection level of the human beings is an objective which can change in time, it is obvious that it is an important point when there is a risk for the population. This is true more particularly for the industrial plants whose possible accidents could affect the population. The accidents risk analysis indicates that there is no conceptual difference between the risks of a nuclear power plant and those of the other industrial plants as chemical plants, the gas distribution system and the hydraulic dams. A legislation analysis induced by the Seveso Directive for the industrial risks give some important indications which should always be followed. This work analyses more particularly the legislative situation in different European countries and identifies some of the most important characteristics. Indeed, for most of the countries, the situation is different and it is a later difficulties source for nuclear power plants. In order to strengthen this reasoning, this paper presents some preliminary results of an analysis of a nuclear power plant following the approach of other industrial plants. In conclusion, it will be necessary to analyse again the risks assessment approach for nuclear power plants because the real protection level of human beings in a country is determined by the less regulated of the dangerous industrial plants existing at the surroundings. (O.M.)

  10. Risk Characterization uncertainties associated description, sensitivity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carrillo, M.; Tovar, M.; Alvarez, J.; Arraez, M.; Hordziejewicz, I.; Loreto, I.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation is about risks to the estimated levels of exposure, uncertainty and variability in the analysis, sensitivity analysis, risks from exposure to multiple substances, formulation of guidelines for carcinogenic and genotoxic compounds and risk subpopulations

  11. Thematic Analysis of Medical Notes Offers Preliminary Insight into Precipitants for Asian Suicide Attempters: An Exploratory Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choo, Carol C; Ho, Roger C; Burton, André A D

    2018-04-20

    One important dynamic risk factor for suicide assessment includes suicide precipitant. This exploratory study used a qualitative paradigm to look into the themes surrounding precipitants for suicide attempts in Singapore. Medical records related to suicide attempters who were admitted to the emergency department of a large teaching hospital in Singapore over a three year period were subjected to analysis. A total of 666 cases were examined (69.2% females; 63.8% Chinese, 15% Malays, 15.8% Indians), ages ranged from 10 years old to 85 years old (Mean = 29.7, Standard Deviation = 16.1). The thematic analysis process that was applied to the textual data elicited key concepts labelled as Relationship issues, Financial strain, Socio-legal-academic—environmental stress, and Physical and mental illness and pain. Interpreted with other recent local research on suicide attempters in Singapore, the findings have implications for informing suicide interventions.

  12. Thematic Analysis of Medical Notes Offers Preliminary Insight into Precipitants for Asian Suicide Attempters: An Exploratory Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carol C. Choo

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available One important dynamic risk factor for suicide assessment includes suicide precipitant. This exploratory study used a qualitative paradigm to look into the themes surrounding precipitants for suicide attempts in Singapore. Medical records related to suicide attempters who were admitted to the emergency department of a large teaching hospital in Singapore over a three year period were subjected to analysis. A total of 666 cases were examined (69.2% females; 63.8% Chinese, 15% Malays, 15.8% Indians, ages ranged from 10 years old to 85 years old (Mean = 29.7, Standard Deviation = 16.1. The thematic analysis process that was applied to the textual data elicited key concepts labelled as Relationship issues, Financial strain, Socio-legal-academic—environmental stress, and Physical and mental illness and pain. Interpreted with other recent local research on suicide attempters in Singapore, the findings have implications for informing suicide interventions.

  13. Environmental modeling and health risk analysis (ACTS/RISK)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Aral, M. M

    2010-01-01

    ... presents a review of the topics of exposure and health risk analysis. The Analytical Contaminant Transport Analysis System (ACTS) and Health RISK Analysis (RISK) software tools are an integral part of the book and provide computational platforms for all the models discussed herein. The most recent versions of these two softwa...

  14. Credit Risk Evaluation : Modeling - Analysis - Management

    OpenAIRE

    Wehrspohn, Uwe

    2002-01-01

    An analysis and further development of the building blocks of modern credit risk management: -Definitions of default -Estimation of default probabilities -Exposures -Recovery Rates -Pricing -Concepts of portfolio dependence -Time horizons for risk calculations -Quantification of portfolio risk -Estimation of risk measures -Portfolio analysis and portfolio improvement -Evaluation and comparison of credit risk models -Analytic portfolio loss distributions The thesis contributes to the evaluatio...

  15. Risk Analysis in Road Tunnels – Most Important Risk Indicators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berchtold, Florian; Knaust, Christian; Thöns, Sebastian

    2016-01-01

    Methodologies on fire risk analysis in road tunnels consider numerous factors affecting risks (risk indicators) and express the results by risk measures. But only few comprehensive studies on effects of risk indicators on risk measures are available. For this reason, this study quantifies...... the effects and highlights the most important risk indicators with the aim to support further developments in risk analysis. Therefore, a system model of a road tunnel was developed to determine the risk measures. The system model can be divided into three parts: the fire part connected to the fire model Fire...... Dynamics Simulator (FDS); the evacuation part connected to the evacuation model FDS+Evac; and the frequency part connected to a model to calculate the frequency of fires. This study shows that the parts of the system model (and their most important risk indicators) affect the risk measures in the following...

  16. When servitization is not transforming the way we do business - analysis of two unsuccessful service offerings from the shipping industry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pagoropoulos, Aris; Kjær, Louise Laumann; McAloone, Tim C.

    2016-01-01

    company in the role of the customer that in the course of two years turned down two different servitized offerings from two manufacturers: one pooling and servicing agreement and one performance agreement. Findings: The customer disregarded the servitized offerings because they were not perceived...... as important sources of value. Based on the two cases, two motifs emerged. The first was the lack of synergy between customer and supplier capabilities and focus, since the manufacturers’ service offerings were either indirectly competing or not complementing the customer’s internal resources. Together...... with the higher initial cost of the offerings, the customer company essentially challenged the necessity and efficiency of the transformation. The second was the manufacturer’s inability to deliver to the customer’s expectations. Even in cases where the customer was able to communicate its own needs...

  17. What is a risk. [Quantitative risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schoen, G [Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt, Braunschweig (Germany, F.R.)

    1979-02-01

    The following article is a revised version of a lecture given by the author during the VDE meeting 'Technical Expert Activities' in Brunswick. First of all, the concept of 'risk' is discussed which leads to a probability scale which then permits a definition of the 'justifiable risk' as the boundary between 'hazard' and 'safety'. The boundary is quantified indirectly from laws, regulations, instructions, etc. to the 'Technological rules' for special fields of application by minimum requirement data. These viewpoints described in detail are not only of substantial significance for the creation of safety regulations but also for their application and consequently for jurisdiction.

  18. Risk analysis in radiosurgery treatments using risk matrices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delgado, J. M.; Sanchez Cayela, C.; Ramirez, M. L.; Perez, A.

    2011-01-01

    The aim of this study is the risk analysis process stereotactic single-dose radiotherapy and evaluation of those initiating events that lead to increased risk and a possible solution in the design of barriers.

  19. Risk Analysis Group annual progress report 1984

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1985-06-01

    The activities of the Risk Analysis Group at Risoe during 1984 are presented. These include descriptions in some detail of work on general development topics and risk analysis performed as contractor. (author)

  20. Integromics network meta-analysis on cardiac aging offers robust multi-layer modular signatures and reveals micronome synergism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dimitrakopoulou, Konstantina; Vrahatis, Aristidis G; Bezerianos, Anastasios

    2015-03-04

    The avalanche of integromics and panomics approaches shifted the deciphering of aging mechanisms from single molecular entities to communities of them. In this orientation, we explore the cardiac aging mechanisms - risk factor for multiple cardiovascular diseases - by capturing the micronome synergism and detecting longevity signatures in the form of communities (modules). For this, we developed a meta-analysis scheme that integrates transcriptome expression data from multiple cardiac-specific independent studies in mouse and human along with proteome and micronome interaction data in the form of multiple independent weighted networks. Modularization of each weighted network produced modules, which in turn were further analyzed so as to define consensus modules across datasets that change substantially during lifespan. Also, we established a metric that determines - from the modular perspective - the synergism of microRNA-microRNA interactions as defined by significantly functionally associated targets. The meta-analysis provided 40 consensus integromics modules across mouse datasets and revealed microRNA relations with substantial collective action during aging. Three modules were reproducible, based on homology, when mapped against human-derived modules. The respective homologs mainly represent NADH dehydrogenases, ATP synthases, cytochrome oxidases, Ras GTPases and ribosomal proteins. Among various observations, we corroborate to the involvement of miR-34a (included in consensus modules) as proposed recently; yet we report that has no synergistic effect. Moving forward, we determined its age-related neighborhood in which HCN3, a known heart pacemaker channel, was included. Also, miR-125a-5p/-351, miR-200c/-429, miR-106b/-17, miR-363/-92b, miR-181b/-181d, miR-19a/-19b, let-7d/-7f, miR-18a/-18b, miR-128/-27b and miR-106a/-291a-3p pairs exhibited significant synergy and their association to aging and/or cardiovascular diseases is supported in many cases by a

  1. RISK ANALYSIS IN MILK PROCESSING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. PIRVUTOIU

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper aimed to evaluate Risk bankruptcy using “Score Method” based on Canon and Holder’s Model. The data were collected from the Balance Sheet and Profit and Loss Account for the period 2005-2007, recorded by a Meat processing Plant (Rador Commercial Company .The study has put in evidence the financial situation of the company,the level of the main financial ratios fundamenting the calculation of Z score function value in the three years The low values of Z score function recorded every year reflects that the company is still facing backruptcy. However , the worst situation was recorded in the years 2005 and 2006, when baknruptcy risk was ranging between 70 – 80 % . In the year 2007, the risk bankruptcy was lower, ranging between 50-70 % , as Z function recorded a value lower than 4 .For Meat processing companies such an analysis is compulsory at present as long as business environment is very risky in our country.

  2. Risk analysis; Analisis de riesgos

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baron, J H; Nunez McLeod, J; Rivera, S S [Universidad Nacional de Cuyo, Mendoza (Argentina). Instituto de Capacitacion Especial y Desarrollo de Ingenieria Asistida por Computadora (CEDIAC)

    1997-07-01

    This book contains a selection of research works performed in the CEDIAC Institute (Cuyo National University) in the area of Risk Analysis, with specific orientations to the subjects of uncertainty and sensitivity studies, software reliability, severe accident modeling, etc. This volume presents important material for all those researches who want to have an insight in the risk analysis field, as a tool to solution several problems frequently found in the engineering and applied sciences field, as well as for the academic teachers who want to keep up to date, including the new developments and improvements continuously arising in this field. [Spanish] Este libro contiene una seleccion de trabajos de investigacion realizados dentro del Instituto de Capacitacion Especial y Desarrollo de la Ingenieria Asistida por Computadora en el area del analisis de riesgos, con una orientacion hacia el estudio de incertidumbres y sensibilidad, confiabilidad de software, modelacion de accidentes severos, etc. Este volumen recoge un material de indudable importancia e interes para todos aquellos investigadores y profesionales que desean incursionar en este campo del analisis de riesgos como herramienta para la solucion de problemas frecuentemente encontrados en la ingenieria y las ciencias aplicadas, asi como para los academicos que desean mantenerse al dia, conociendo los nuevos desarrollos y tecnicas que constantemente aparecen en su area.

  3. A background to risk analysis. Vol. 3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, J.R.

    1979-01-01

    This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles, and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justifi- cation or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appenix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 3 contains chapters on quantification of risk, failure and accident probability, risk analysis and design, and examles of risk analysis for process plant. (BP)

  4. A background risk analysis. Vol. 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, J.R.

    1979-01-01

    This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles, and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques, described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justification or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appendix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 1 contains a short history of risk analysis, and chapters on risk, failures, errors and accidents, and general procedures for risk analysis. (BP)

  5. Neither as harmful as feared by critics nor as empowering as promised by providers: risk information offered direct to consumer by personal genomics companies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nordgren, Anders

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, I investigate ethical and policy aspects of the genetic services and web-rhetoric of companies offering genetic information direct to consumer, and I do so with a special focus on genetic risk information. On their websites, the companies stress that genetic risk testing for multifactorial complex medical conditions such as cardiovascular disease and cancer may empower the consumer and provide valuable input to personal identity. Critics maintain, on the other hand, that testing can be psychologically harmful, is of limited clinical and preventive value, and vulnerable to misinterpretation. I stress the importance of empirical studies in assessing the pros and cons of direct-to-consumer testing and point out that recent empirical studies indicate that this testing is neither as harmful as feared by critics nor as empowering as promised by the companies. However, the testing is not entirely harmless. Remaining problems include testing of third parties without consent and ownership of genotypic and phenotypic information. Moreover, the testing, although not particularly empowering, may still provide input to self-understanding that some people find valuable. Regarding policy-making, I suggest that self-regulation in terms of best practice guidelines may play an important role, but I also stress that national and international regulation may be necessary.

  6. Analysis of the main characteristics of Initial Public Offerings in the Czech Republic and perspectives of their further development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomáš Meluzín

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Funding development of the company through the “Initial Public Offering” has a high representation globally, the Czech Republic unlike, and belongs to traditional methods of raising funds necessary for development of business in the developed capital markets. In the United States of America, Japan and in the Western Europe countries the method of company funding through IPO has been applying for several decades already. The first public stock offerings began to be applied in these markets in higher volumes from the beginning of the 60th of the last century. From that period importance of IPO goes up globally and the initial public stock offerings begin to be applied more and more even in the Central and Eastern European countries. Since 2004, several companies that have opted for this form of financing can be found in the Czech Republic as well. The objective of the paper is to analyze the main characteristics of initial public offerings of shares effected on the Czech capital market between 2004 and 2008 and to outline the perspectives of further development in this area.

  7. Cost-effectiveness analysis of offering free leisure centre memberships to physically inactive members of the public receiving state benefits: a case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verhoef, Talitha I; Trend, Verena; Kelly, Barry; Robinson, Nigel; Fox, Paul; Morris, Stephen

    2016-07-22

    We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of the Give-it-a-Go programme, which offers free leisure centre memberships to physically inactive members of the public in a single London Borough receiving state benefits. A decision analytic Markov model was developed to analyse lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) of 1025 people recruited to the intervention versus no intervention. In the intervention group, people were offered 4 months of free membership at a leisure centre. Physical activity levels were assessed at 0 and 4 months using the International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ). Higher levels of physical activity were assumed to decrease the risk of coronary heart disease, stroke and diabetes mellitus type II, as well as improve mental health. Costs were assessed from a National Health Service (NHS) perspective. Uncertainty was assessed using one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. One-hundred fifty nine participants (15.5 %) completed the programme by attending the leisure centre for 4 months. Compared with no intervention, Give it a Go increased costs by £67.25 and QALYs by 0.0033 (equivalent to 1.21 days in full health) per recruited person. The incremental costs per QALY gained were £20,347. The results were highly sensitive to the magnitude of mental health gain due to physical activity and the duration of the effect of the programme (1 year in the base case analysis). When the mental health gain was omitted from the analysis, the incremental cost per QALY gained increased to almost £1.5 million. In the probabilistic sensitivity analysis, the incremental costs per QALY gained were below £20,000 in 39 % of the 5000 simulations. Give it a Go did not significantly increase life-expectancy, but had a positive influence on quality of life due to the mental health gain of physical activity. If the increase in physical activity caused by Give it a Go lasts for more than 1 year, the programme would be cost-effective given a

  8. An Evaluation with Respect to e-Learning and Economic Analysis of the Graduate Program Offered in Anadolu University’s Institute of Educational Sciences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eren KESIM

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available An Evaluation with Respect to e-Learning and Economic Analysis of the Graduate Program Offered in Anadolu University’s Institute of Educational Sciences Prof. Dr. Coskun BAYRAK Anadolu University Eskisehir, TURKEY Res. Ass. Eren KESIM Anadolu University Eskisehir, TURKEY ABSTRACT In this study, an e-learning platform was formed to enable school teachers and administrators to attend graduate programs in the field of educational administration, supervision, planning and economics. In this framework, for the non-thesis educational administration, supervision, planning and economics graduate programs to be conducted in the Institute of Educational Sciences in Anadolu University with using the e-learning method, cost of technical infrastructure for e-learning method, unit costs of students attending a program, cost advantage per credit and time advantage between e-learning and formal education were calculated. In addition, profitability of educational investment in e-learning and application of e-learning were discussed. A descriptive research method is used in the study. Research universe is the students, attending educational administration supervision planning and economics graduate program in Anadolu University’s Institute of Educational Sciences in the 2003-2004 academic year. Universe but not sampling, was used as the research universe in this study. In evaluation and economic analysis of the e-learning model, inflation rate and risk free rate of interest variables are used as the main variables. The value of annually compound rate of nine months Treasury bill (29.90 %, opened bids on November 4, 2003 was used as the risk free rate of interest in the economic analysis. In the economic analysis of the non thesis web based application model of educational administration, supervision, planning and economics program as an educational investment, five year present values of discount rates were calculated according to the %29.90 discount rate value

  9. Spatial Heterogeneity of Sustainable Transportation Offer Values: A Comparative Analysis of Nantes Urban and Periurban/Rural Areas (France

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julie Bulteau

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Innovative solutions have been implemented to promote sustainable mobility in urban areas. In the Nantes area (northwestern part of France, alternatives to single-occupant car use have increased in the past few years. In the urban area, there is an efficient public transport supply, including tramways and a “busway” (Bus Rapid Transit, as well as bike-sharing services. In periurban and rural areas, there are carpool areas, regional buses and the new “tram-train” lines. In this article, we focus on the impact on house prices of these “sustainable” transportation infrastructures and policies, in order to evaluate their values. The implicit price of these sustainable transport offers was estimated through hedonic price functions describing the Nantes urban and periurban/rural housing markets. Spatial regression models (SAR, SEM, SDM and GWR were carried out to capture the effect of both spatial autocorrelation and spatial heterogeneity. The results show patterns of spatial heterogeneity of transportation offer implicit prices at two scales: (i between urban and periurban/rural areas, as well as (ii within each territory. In the urban area, the distance to such offers was significantly associated with house prices. These associations varied by type of transportation system (positive for tramway and railway stations and negative for bike-sharing stations. In periurban and rural areas, having a carpool area in a 1500-m buffer around the home was negatively associated with house prices, while having a regional bus station in a 500-m buffer was non-significant. Distance to the nearest railway station was negatively associated with house prices. These findings provide research avenues to help public policy-makers promote sustainable mobility and pave the way for more locally targeted interventions.

  10. What can triple helix frameworks offer to the analysis of eco-innovation dynamics? Theoretical and methodological considerations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yang, Yan; Holgaard, Jette Egelund; Remmen, Arne

    2012-01-01

    stakeholder groups are interacting in this connection. Taking the triple helix as the theoretical departure point, this paper discusses the opportunities offered by these triple helix frameworks for analyzing eco-innovation dynamics from both theoretical and practical perspectives. It adds to the debate about......Bringing environmental concerns into focus of innovation processes will in several cases also expand the numbers of actors involved. Eco-innovation and triple helix are often frameworks applied to analyse how environmental concerns are integrated in the innovation processes and how different...

  11. PROCEDURE FOR ANALYSIS COMPLIANCE WITH QUALITY STANDARDS OFFER OF THE BUFFET RESTAURANT CASONA MELIA SANTIAGO DE CUBA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oscar Parada-Pérez

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The company hotel Cuban faces the challenge of the competitiveness and the client’s satisfaction in an environment that demands of actions that they assure the quality. This article has as objective to show the application of a procedure for the evaluation of the standards of quality of the offer in the restaurant buffet La Casona of the Hotel Meliá Santiago de Cuba. The results achieved by the application of the procedure allow to perfect the process of taking of decisions and it contributes to the efficiency of the hotel and the elevation of the quality of the service. 

  12. RAMS (Risk Analysis - Modular System) methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stenner, R.D.; Strenge, D.L.; Buck, J.W. [and others

    1996-10-01

    The Risk Analysis - Modular System (RAMS) was developed to serve as a broad scope risk analysis tool for the Risk Assessment of the Hanford Mission (RAHM) studies. The RAHM element provides risk analysis support for Hanford Strategic Analysis and Mission Planning activities. The RAHM also provides risk analysis support for the Hanford 10-Year Plan development activities. The RAMS tool draws from a collection of specifically designed databases and modular risk analysis methodologies and models. RAMS is a flexible modular system that can be focused on targeted risk analysis needs. It is specifically designed to address risks associated with overall strategy, technical alternative, and `what if` questions regarding the Hanford cleanup mission. RAMS is set up to address both near-term and long-term risk issues. Consistency is very important for any comparative risk analysis, and RAMS is designed to efficiently and consistently compare risks and produce risk reduction estimates. There is a wide range of output information that can be generated by RAMS. These outputs can be detailed by individual contaminants, waste forms, transport pathways, exposure scenarios, individuals, populations, etc. However, they can also be in rolled-up form to support high-level strategy decisions.

  13. Streamlining project delivery through risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-08-01

    Project delivery is a significant area of concern and is subject to several risks throughout Plan Development : Process (PDP). These risks are attributed to major areas of project development, such as environmental : analysis, right-of-way (ROW) acqu...

  14. Innovative gas offers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sala, O.; Mela, P.; Chatelain, F.

    2007-01-01

    New energy offers are progressively made available as the opening of gas market to competition becomes broader. How are organized the combined offers: gas, electricity, renewable energies and energy services? What are the marketing strategies implemented? Three participants at this round table present their offer and answer these questions. (J.S.)

  15. Analysis of the influence of pasteurization, freezing/thawing, and offer processes on human milk's macronutrient concentrations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vieira, Alan Araujo; Soares, Fernanda Valente Mendes; Pimenta, Hellen Porto; Abranches, Andrea Dunshee; Moreira, Maria Elisabeth Lopes

    2011-08-01

    The macronutrient concentrations of human milk could be influenced by the various processes used in human milk bank. To determine the effect of various process (Holder pasteurization, freezing and thawing and feeding method) on the macronutrient concentration of human milk. The samples of donated fresh human milk were studied before and after each process (Holder pasteurization, freezing and thawing and feeding method) until their delivery to newborn infants. Fifty-seven raw human milk samples were analyzed in the first step (pasteurization) and 228 in the offer step. Repeated measurements of protein, fat and lactose amounts were made in samples of human milk using an Infrared analyzer. The influence of repeated processes on the mean concentration of macronutrients in donor human milk was analyzed by repeated measurements ANOVA, using R statistical package. The most variable macronutrient concentration in the analyzed samples was fat (reduction of 59%). There was a significant reduction of fat and protein mean concentrations following pasteurization (5.5 and 3.9%, respectively). The speed at which the milk was thawed didn't cause a significant variation in the macronutrients concentrations. However, the continuous infusion delivery significantly reduced the fat concentration. When the influence of repeated processes was analyzed, the fat and protein concentrations varied significantly (reduction of 56.6% and 10.1% respectively) (Pmilk is submitted before delivery to newborn infants cause a reduction in the fat and protein concentration. The magnitude of this decrease is higher on the fat concentration and it needs to be considered when this processed milk is used to feed preterm infants. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Fibre Diffraction Analysis of Skin Offers a Very Early and Extremely Accurate Diagnostic Test for Prostate Cancer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    James, Veronica J. [Research School of Chemistry, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia; O’Malley Ford, Judith M. [Kedron 7 Day Medical Centre, Kedron, Brisbane, QLD 4005, Australia

    2014-01-01

    Double blind analysis of a batch of thirty skin tissue samples from potential prostate cancer sufferers correctly identified all “control” patients, patients with high and low grade prostate cancers, the presence of benign prostate hyperplasia (BPH), perineural invasions, and the one lymphatic invasion. Identification was by analysis of fibre diffraction patterns interpreted using a schema developed from observations in nine previous studies. The method, schema, and specific experiment results are reported in this paper, with some implications then drawn.

  17. Risk analysis and safety rationale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bengtsson, G.

    1989-01-01

    Decision making with respect to safety is becoming more and more complex. The risk involved must be taken into account together with numerous other factors such as the benefits, the uncertainties and the public perception. Can the decision maker be aided by some kind of system, general rules of thumb, or broader perspective on similar decisions? This question has been addressed in a joint Nordic project relating to nuclear power. Modern techniques for risk assessment and management have been studied, and parallels drawn to such areas as offshore safety and management of toxic chemicals in the environment. The report summarises the finding of 5 major technical reports which have been published in the NORD-series. The topics includes developments, uncertainties and limitations in probabilistic safety assessments, negligible risks, risk-cost trade-offs, optimisation of nuclear safety and radiation protection, and the role of risks in the decision making process. (author) 84 refs

  18. A background to risk analysis. Vol. 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, J.R.

    1979-01-01

    This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justification or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appendix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 2 treats generic methods of qualitative failure analysis. (BP)

  19. Risk Analysis of Telecom Enterprise Financing

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YU Hua; SHU Hua-ying

    2005-01-01

    The main research objects in this paper are the causes searching and risk estimating method for telecom enterprises' financial risks. The multi-mode financing for telecom enterprises makes it flexible to induce the capital and obtain the profit by corresponding projects. But there are also potential risks going with these financing modes. After making analysis of categories and causes of telecom enterprises' financing risk, a method by Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is put forward to estimating the financing risk. And the author makes her suggestion and opinion by example analysis, in order to provide some ideas and basis for telecom enterprise's financing decision-making.

  20. PRA and Risk Informed Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernsen, Sidney A.; Simonen, Fredric A.; Balkey, Kenneth R.

    2006-01-01

    The Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code (BPVC) of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) has introduced a risk based approach into Section XI that covers Rules for Inservice Inspection of Nuclear Power Plant Components. The risk based approach requires application of the probabilistic risk assessments (PRA). Because no industry consensus standard existed for PRAs, ASME has developed a standard to evaluate the quality level of an available PRA needed to support a given risk based application. The paper describes the PRA standard, Section XI application of PRAs, and plans for broader applications of PRAs to other ASME nuclear codes and standards. The paper addresses several specific topics of interest to Section XI. Important consideration are special methods (surrogate components) used to overcome the lack of PRA treatments of passive components in PRAs. The approach allows calculations of conditional core damage probabilities both for component failures that cause initiating events and failures in standby systems that decrease the availability of these systems. The paper relates the explicit risk based methods of the new Section XI code cases to the implicit consideration of risk used in the development of Section XI. Other topics include the needed interactions of ISI engineers, plant operating staff, PRA specialists, and members of expert panels that review the risk based programs

  1. Advances in Risk Analysis with Big Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Tsan-Ming; Lambert, James H

    2017-08-01

    With cloud computing, Internet-of-things, wireless sensors, social media, fast storage and retrieval, etc., organizations and enterprises have access to unprecedented amounts and varieties of data. Current risk analysis methodology and applications are experiencing related advances and breakthroughs. For example, highway operations data are readily available, and making use of them reduces risks of traffic crashes and travel delays. Massive data of financial and enterprise systems support decision making under risk by individuals, industries, regulators, etc. In this introductory article, we first discuss the meaning of big data for risk analysis. We then examine recent advances in risk analysis with big data in several topic areas. For each area, we identify and introduce the relevant articles that are featured in the special issue. We conclude with a discussion on future research opportunities. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  2. 38 CFR 75.115 - Risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Risk analysis. 75.115 Section 75.115 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS (CONTINUED) INFORMATION SECURITY MATTERS Data Breaches § 75.115 Risk analysis. If a data breach involving sensitive personal information that is processed or...

  3. Modern, PC based, high resolution portable EDXRF analyzer offers laboratory performance for field, in-situ analysis of environmental contaminants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Piorek, Stanislaw

    1994-01-01

    The introduction of a new, high resolution, portable probe that has improved the sensitivity of the conventional field portable X-ray fluorescence (FPXRF) by up to an order of magnitude had been reported earlier [S. Piorek and J.R. Pasmore, Proc. 2nd Int. Symp. on Field Screening Methods for Hazardous Wastes and Toxic Chemicals, Las Vegas, 1991, p. 737]. A high resolution Si(Li) detector probe operates connected to a multichannel X-ray analyzer (2048 channels) which is housed in a portable, battery powered industrial computer. An improved energy resolution of the detector allows the implementation of more sophisticated data treatment methods to convert the measured intensities into mass concentrations of the analytes. A backscatter with a fundamental parameters approach (BFP) is one of the best methods, specifically for metallic contaminants in soil. A program has been written based on the BFP method for use with the new probe. The new software/probe combination enables one to quickly assess levels of contaminants on the site without the need of analyzed samples for instrument calibration. The performance of the EDXRF system in application to analysis of metals in contaminated soil is discussed in this paper. Also discussed is the extension of this method in the analysis of other types of environmental samples such as air particulates collected on filter paper. ((orig.))

  4. Genome-wide expression analysis offers new insights into the origin and evolution of Physcomitrella patens stress response

    KAUST Repository

    Khraiwesh, Basel

    2015-11-30

    Changes in the environment, such as those caused by climate change, can exert stress on plant growth, diversity and ultimately global food security. Thus, focused efforts to fully understand plant response to stress are urgently needed in order to develop strategies to cope with the effects of climate change. Because Physcomitrella patens holds a key evolutionary position bridging the gap between green algae and higher plants, and because it exhibits a well-developed stress tolerance, it is an excellent model for such exploration. Here, we have used Physcomitrella patens to study genome-wide responses to abiotic stress through transcriptomic analysis by a high-throughput sequencing platform. We report a comprehensive analysis of transcriptome dynamics, defining profiles of elicited gene regulation responses to abiotic stress-associated hormone Abscisic Acid (ABA), cold, drought, and salt treatments. We identified more than 20,000 genes expressed under each aforementioned stress treatments, of which 9,668 display differential expression in response to stress. The comparison of Physcomitrella patens stress regulated genes with unicellular algae, vascular and flowering plants revealed genomic delineation concomitant with the evolutionary movement to land, including a general gene family complexity and loss of genes associated with different functional groups.

  5. A background to risk analysis. Vol. 4

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, J.R.

    1979-01-01

    This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles, and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justification or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appendix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 4 treats human error in plant operation. (BP)

  6. Reliability and validity of risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aven, Terje; Heide, Bjornar

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we investigate to what extent risk analysis meets the scientific quality requirements of reliability and validity. We distinguish between two types of approaches within risk analysis, relative frequency-based approaches and Bayesian approaches. The former category includes both traditional statistical inference methods and the so-called probability of frequency approach. Depending on the risk analysis approach, the aim of the analysis is different, the results are presented in different ways and consequently the meaning of the concepts reliability and validity are not the same.

  7. Analysis of the Experience of a Virtual Learning Environment Integration Into a Biochemistry Course Offered to Undergraduate Students

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.B. Espíndola

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available As Information and Communication Technology (ICT becomes available in educational contexts, it is important that educators experiment different ways to deal with ICT tools in the teaching -learning process at the University basic sciences level. The challenge is to integrate ICT throughout the learning subjects in order to improve the quality of the learning process to students. This paper presents the results of an experience using a Virtual Learning Management System (VLMS, named Constructore, applied in the Biochemistry discipline at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ for undergraduate medical students. Using Constructore, we developed a learning environment intended for integrating online activities and traditional course content. The course was focused on the integration of energy-yielding metabolism, exploring  metabolic adaptations in different physiological or pathological states such as starvation, diabetes and exercise. The course environment was structured with three modules, each of them presenting problem-based exercises to be answered after retrieving rele vant information in original scientific articles. Based on the analysis of  a semi-open questionnaire, the results provided evidence that the virtual environment stimulated students to critically read relevant scientific articles and to acquire skills to build and to integrate their knowledge through content association.

  8. Risk analysis and priority setting for environmental policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Travis, C.C.

    1991-01-01

    There is a growing realization that the demand for funding to correct our nation's environmental problems will soon outstrip available resources. In the hazardous waste area alone, the estimated cost of remediating Superfund sites ranges from $32 billion to $80 billion. Numerous other areas of competing for these same financial resources. These include ozone depletion, global warming, the protection of endangered species and wetlands, toxic air pollution, carcinogenic pesticides, and urban smog. In response to this imbalance in the supply and demand for national funds, several political constituencies are calling for the use of risk assessment as a tool in the prioritization of research and budget needs. Comparative risk analysis offers a logical framework in which to organize information about complex environmental problems. Risk analysis allows policy analysts to make resource allocation decisions on the basis of scientific judgement rather than political expediency

  9. Probabilistic risk analysis for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hauptmanns, U.

    1988-01-01

    Risk analysis is applied if the calculation of risk from observed failures is not possible, because events contributing substantially to risk are too seldom, as in the case of nuclear reactors. The process of analysis provides a number of benefits. Some of them are listed. After this by no means complete enumeration of possible benefits to be derived from a risk analysis. An outline of risk studiesd for PWR's with some comments on the models used are given. The presentation is indebted to the detailed treatment of the subject given in the PRA Procedures Guide. Thereafter some results of the German Risk Study, Phase B, which is under way are communicated. The paper concludes with some remarks on probabilistic considerations in licensing procedures. (orig./DG)

  10. National Distance Education University (UNED and the Virtualization of its Academic Offer. A Rational Analysis of its Implementation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arnaldo Rodríguez-Espinoza

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available This article analyses the virtualization process of university courses implemented in the four schools of the National Distance Education University (UNED, for its acronym in Spanish. Primarily, the objective is to determine whether the virtualization of the courses should be the only alternative for students, or if it should be another tool to integrate into the pedagogic model of distance education in the context and reality of Costa Rica, in regards to the viability of access to digital technologies. Thus, an analysis of the Information and Communication Technologies (ICT was done through virtualization and e-learning, explaining its implementation in UNED, a setting where there is still a long way to go in terms of accessibility, mainly between urban and rural areas. Additionally, the ICTs are approached as an alternative, an option, or a tool within the distance education model, since their implementation depends on a pedagogic foundation (techniques, strategies, and methodologies in ICT, and above all, on the context. The conclusions state that the virtualization of the courses must be an alternative but not an imposition for the students, because consideration of the context is vital, in terms of accessibility to digital technologies in Costa Rica, meaning that the quality of education must prevail over the means (semi-virtual, hybrid, virtual, or distance. Virtualization is not a matter of being at the forefront by means of technical innovation, but its implementation must be based on a real need with suitable conditions (adequate logistic infrastructure. Finally, ICTs must depend on a clearly established pedagogical curriculum, without reducing the access and quality in education.

  11. Bias in risk-benefit analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mazur, A.

    1985-01-01

    Risk-benefit analysis has become popular in the past decade as a means of improving decision making, especially in the area of technology policy. Here risk-benefit analysis is compared to other (equally defensible) approaches to decision making, showing how it favors some political interests more than others, and suggesting why it has recently come to the fore as a tool of political analysis. A considerable portion of the discussion concerns nuclear power. 6 references

  12. What can management theories offer evidence-based practice? A comparative analysis of measurement tools for organisational context

    Science.gov (United States)

    French, Beverley; Thomas, Lois H; Baker, Paula; Burton, Christopher R; Pennington, Lindsay; Roddam, Hazel

    2009-01-01

    Background Given the current emphasis on networks as vehicles for innovation and change in health service delivery, the ability to conceptualise and measure organisational enablers for the social construction of knowledge merits attention. This study aimed to develop a composite tool to measure the organisational context for evidence-based practice (EBP) in healthcare. Methods A structured search of the major healthcare and management databases for measurement tools from four domains: research utilisation (RU), research activity (RA), knowledge management (KM), and organisational learning (OL). Included studies were reports of the development or use of measurement tools that included organisational factors. Tools were appraised for face and content validity, plus development and testing methods. Measurement tool items were extracted, merged across the four domains, and categorised within a constructed framework describing the absorptive and receptive capacities of organisations. Results Thirty measurement tools were identified and appraised. Eighteen tools from the four domains were selected for item extraction and analysis. The constructed framework consists of seven categories relating to three core organisational attributes of vision, leadership, and a learning culture, and four stages of knowledge need, acquisition of new knowledge, knowledge sharing, and knowledge use. Measurement tools from RA or RU domains had more items relating to the categories of leadership, and acquisition of new knowledge; while tools from KM or learning organisation domains had more items relating to vision, learning culture, knowledge need, and knowledge sharing. There was equal emphasis on knowledge use in the different domains. Conclusion If the translation of evidence into knowledge is viewed as socially mediated, tools to measure the organisational context of EBP in healthcare could be enhanced by consideration of related concepts from the organisational and management sciences

  13. What can management theories offer evidence-based practice? A comparative analysis of measurement tools for organisational context

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pennington Lindsay

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Given the current emphasis on networks as vehicles for innovation and change in health service delivery, the ability to conceptualise and measure organisational enablers for the social construction of knowledge merits attention. This study aimed to develop a composite tool to measure the organisational context for evidence-based practice (EBP in healthcare. Methods A structured search of the major healthcare and management databases for measurement tools from four domains: research utilisation (RU, research activity (RA, knowledge management (KM, and organisational learning (OL. Included studies were reports of the development or use of measurement tools that included organisational factors. Tools were appraised for face and content validity, plus development and testing methods. Measurement tool items were extracted, merged across the four domains, and categorised within a constructed framework describing the absorptive and receptive capacities of organisations. Results Thirty measurement tools were identified and appraised. Eighteen tools from the four domains were selected for item extraction and analysis. The constructed framework consists of seven categories relating to three core organisational attributes of vision, leadership, and a learning culture, and four stages of knowledge need, acquisition of new knowledge, knowledge sharing, and knowledge use. Measurement tools from RA or RU domains had more items relating to the categories of leadership, and acquisition of new knowledge; while tools from KM or learning organisation domains had more items relating to vision, learning culture, knowledge need, and knowledge sharing. There was equal emphasis on knowledge use in the different domains. Conclusion If the translation of evidence into knowledge is viewed as socially mediated, tools to measure the organisational context of EBP in healthcare could be enhanced by consideration of related concepts from the organisational

  14. What can management theories offer evidence-based practice? A comparative analysis of measurement tools for organisational context.

    Science.gov (United States)

    French, Beverley; Thomas, Lois H; Baker, Paula; Burton, Christopher R; Pennington, Lindsay; Roddam, Hazel

    2009-05-19

    Given the current emphasis on networks as vehicles for innovation and change in health service delivery, the ability to conceptualize and measure organisational enablers for the social construction of knowledge merits attention. This study aimed to develop a composite tool to measure the organisational context for evidence-based practice (EBP) in healthcare. A structured search of the major healthcare and management databases for measurement tools from four domains: research utilisation (RU), research activity (RA), knowledge management (KM), and organisational learning (OL). Included studies were reports of the development or use of measurement tools that included organisational factors. Tools were appraised for face and content validity, plus development and testing methods. Measurement tool items were extracted, merged across the four domains, and categorised within a constructed framework describing the absorptive and receptive capacities of organisations. Thirty measurement tools were identified and appraised. Eighteen tools from the four domains were selected for item extraction and analysis. The constructed framework consists of seven categories relating to three core organisational attributes of vision, leadership, and a learning culture, and four stages of knowledge need, acquisition of new knowledge, knowledge sharing, and knowledge use. Measurement tools from RA or RU domains had more items relating to the categories of leadership, and acquisition of new knowledge; while tools from KM or learning organisation domains had more items relating to vision, learning culture, knowledge need, and knowledge sharing. There was equal emphasis on knowledge use in the different domains. If the translation of evidence into knowledge is viewed as socially mediated, tools to measure the organisational context of EBP in healthcare could be enhanced by consideration of related concepts from the organisational and management sciences. Comparison of measurement tools across

  15. Collision Risk Analysis for HSC

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Urban, Jesper; Pedersen, Preben Terndrup; Simonsen, Bo Cerup

    1999-01-01

    High Speed Craft (HSC) have a risk profile, which is distinctly different from conventional ferries. Due to different hull building material, structural layout, compartmentation and operation, both frequency and consequences of collision and grounding accidents must be expected to be different fr...

  16. Generalized indices for radiation risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bykov, A.A.; Demin, V.F.

    1989-01-01

    A new approach to ensuring nuclear safety has begun forming since the early eighties. The approach based on the probabilistic safety analysis, the principles of acceptable risk, the optimization of safety measures, etc. has forced a complex of adequate quantitative methods of assessment, safety analysis and risk management to be developed. The method of radiation risk assessment and analysis hold a prominent place in the complex. National and international research and regulatory organizations ICRP, IAEA, WHO, UNSCEAR, OECD/NEA have given much attention to the development of the conceptual and methodological basis of those methods. Some resolutions of the National Commission of Radiological Protection (NCRP) and the Problem Commission on Radiation Hygiene of the USSR Ministry of Health should be also noted. Both CBA (cost benefit analysis) and other methods of radiation risk analysis and safety management use a system of natural and socio-economic indices characterizing the radiation risk or damage. There exist a number of problems associated with the introduction, justification and use of these indices. For example, the price, a, of radiation damage, or collective dose unit, is a noteworthy index. The difficulties in its qualitative and quantitative determination are still an obstacle for a wide application of CBA to the radiation risk analysis and management. During recent 10-15 years these problems have been a subject of consideration for many authors. The present paper also considers the issues of the qualitative and quantitative justification of the indices of radiation risk analysis

  17. Safety analysis, risk assessment, and risk acceptance criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jamali, K.

    1997-01-01

    This paper discusses a number of topics that relate safety analysis as documented in the Department of Energy (DOE) safety analysis reports (SARs), probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) as characterized primarily in the context of the techniques that have assumed some level of formality in commercial nuclear power plant applications, and risk acceptance criteria as an outgrowth of PRA applications. DOE SARs of interest are those that are prepared for DOE facilities under DOE Order 5480.23 and the implementing guidance in DOE STD-3009-94. It must be noted that the primary area of application for DOE STD-3009 is existing DOE facilities and that certain modifications of the STD-3009 approach are necessary in SARs for new facilities. Moreover, it is the hazard analysis (HA) and accident analysis (AA) portions of these SARs that are relevant to the present discussions. Although PRAs can be qualitative in nature, PRA as used in this paper refers more generally to all quantitative risk assessments and their underlying methods. HA as used in this paper refers more generally to all qualitative risk assessments and their underlying methods that have been in use in hazardous facilities other than nuclear power plants. This discussion includes both quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methods. PRA has been used, improved, developed, and refined since the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) was published in 1975 by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Much debate has ensued since WASH-1400 on exactly what the role of PRA should be in plant design, reactor licensing, 'ensuring' plant and process safety, and a large number of other decisions that must be made for potentially hazardous activities. Of particular interest in this area is whether the risks quantified using PRA should be compared with numerical risk acceptance criteria (RACs) to determine whether a facility is 'safe.' Use of RACs requires quantitative estimates of consequence frequency and magnitude

  18. Missed opportunities to offer HIV tests to high-risk groups during general practitioners’ STI-related consultations: an observational study.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Joore, I.K.; Reukers, D.F.M.; Donker, G.A.; Sighem, A.I. van; Coul, E.L.M. Op de; Prins, J.M.; Geerlings, S.E.; Barth, S.R.E.; Bergen, J.E.A.M. van; Broek, I.V.F. van den

    2016-01-01

    Objectives: Prior research has shown that Dutch general practitioners (GPs) do not always offer HIV testing and the number of undiagnosed HIV patients remains high. We aimed to further investigate the frequency and reasons for (not) testing for HIV and the contribution of GPs to the diagnosis of HIV

  19. GIS risk analysis of hazardous materials transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anders, C.; Olsten, J.

    1991-01-01

    The Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to assess the risks and vulnerability of transporting hazardous materials and wastes (such as gasoline, explosives, poisons, etc) on the Arizona highway system. This paper discusses the methodology that was utilized, and the application of GIS systems to risk analysis problems

  20. Dealing with phenomenological uncertainty in risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Theofanous, T.G.

    1994-01-01

    The Risk-Oriented Accident Analysis Methodology (ROAAM) is summarized and developed further towards a formal definition. The key ideas behind the methodology and these more formal aspects are also presented and discussed

  1. Risk and safety analysis of nuclear systems

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lee, John C; McCormick, Norman J

    2011-01-01

    .... The first half of the book covers the principles of risk analysis, the techniques used to develop and update a reliability data base, the reliability of multi-component systems, Markov methods used...

  2. Risk analysis for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koelzer, W.

    1983-01-01

    The German risk analysis program for nuclear power plants aiming at the man and the environment is presented. An accident consequence model to calculate the radiological impact and the potential health effects is described. (E.G.) [pt

  3. Prenatal folic acid use associated with decreased risk of myelomeningocele: A case-control study offers further support for folic acid fortification in Bangladesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kancherla, Vijaya; Ibne Hasan, Md Omar Sharif; Hamid, Rezina; Paul, Ligi; Selhub, Jacob; Oakley, Godfrey; Quamruzzaman, Quazi; Mazumdar, Maitreyi

    2017-01-01

    Neural tube defects contribute to severe morbidity and mortality in children and adults; however, they are largely preventable through maternal intake of folic acid before and during early pregnancy. We examined the association between maternal prenatal folic acid supplement intake and risk of myelomeningocele (a severe and common type of neural tube defect) in the offspring. We performed secondary analysis using data from a case-control study conducted at Dhaka Community Hospital, Bangladesh between April and November of 2013. Cases and controls included children with and without myelomeningocele, respectively, and their mothers. Cases were identified from local hospitals and rural health clinics served by Dhaka Community Hospital. Controls were selected from pregnancy registries located in the same region as the cases, and matched (1:1) to cases by age and sex. Myelomeningocele in the offspring was confirmed by a pediatrician with expertise in classifying neural tube defects. Maternal prenatal folic acid supplement intake was the main exposure of interest. We estimated crude and adjusted odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) using conditional logistic regression analysis. There were 53 pairs of matched cases and controls in our study. Overall, 51% of case mothers reported using folic acid supplements during pregnancy compared to 72% of control mothers (p = 0.03). Median plasma folate concentrations at the time of study visit were 2.79 ng/mL and 2.86 ng/mL among case and control mothers, respectively (p = 0.85). Maternal prenatal folic acid use significantly decreased the odds of myelomeningocele in the offspring (unadjusted OR = 0.42, 95% CI = 0.18-0.96). The association was slightly attenuated after adjusting for maternal age at the time of pregnancy (adjusted OR = 0.43, 95% CI = 0.18-1.02). Our study confirms the protective association between maternal prenatal folic acid supplement use and myelomeningocele among children born in Bangladesh. Our

  4. Prenatal folic acid use associated with decreased risk of myelomeningocele: A case-control study offers further support for folic acid fortification in Bangladesh.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vijaya Kancherla

    Full Text Available Neural tube defects contribute to severe morbidity and mortality in children and adults; however, they are largely preventable through maternal intake of folic acid before and during early pregnancy. We examined the association between maternal prenatal folic acid supplement intake and risk of myelomeningocele (a severe and common type of neural tube defect in the offspring. We performed secondary analysis using data from a case-control study conducted at Dhaka Community Hospital, Bangladesh between April and November of 2013. Cases and controls included children with and without myelomeningocele, respectively, and their mothers. Cases were identified from local hospitals and rural health clinics served by Dhaka Community Hospital. Controls were selected from pregnancy registries located in the same region as the cases, and matched (1:1 to cases by age and sex. Myelomeningocele in the offspring was confirmed by a pediatrician with expertise in classifying neural tube defects. Maternal prenatal folic acid supplement intake was the main exposure of interest. We estimated crude and adjusted odds ratios (OR and 95% confidence intervals (CI using conditional logistic regression analysis. There were 53 pairs of matched cases and controls in our study. Overall, 51% of case mothers reported using folic acid supplements during pregnancy compared to 72% of control mothers (p = 0.03. Median plasma folate concentrations at the time of study visit were 2.79 ng/mL and 2.86 ng/mL among case and control mothers, respectively (p = 0.85. Maternal prenatal folic acid use significantly decreased the odds of myelomeningocele in the offspring (unadjusted OR = 0.42, 95% CI = 0.18-0.96. The association was slightly attenuated after adjusting for maternal age at the time of pregnancy (adjusted OR = 0.43, 95% CI = 0.18-1.02. Our study confirms the protective association between maternal prenatal folic acid supplement use and myelomeningocele among children born in

  5. 48 CFR 570.306 - Evaluating offers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Evaluating offers. 570.306... Real Property 570.306 Evaluating offers. (a) You must evaluate offers solely in accordance with the... solicitation. The file must include the basis for evaluation, an analysis of each offer, and a summary of...

  6. Probabilistic risk analysis in chemical engineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmalz, F.

    1991-01-01

    In risk analysis in the chemical industry, recognising potential risks is considered more important than assessing their quantitative extent. Even in assessing risks, emphasis is not on the probability involved but on the possible extent. Qualitative assessment has proved valuable here. Probabilistic methods are used in individual cases where the wide implications make it essential to be able to assess the reliability of safety precautions. In this case, assessment therefore centres on the reliability of technical systems and not on the extent of a chemical risk. 7 figs

  7. Reliability and risk analysis methods research plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1984-10-01

    This document presents a plan for reliability and risk analysis methods research to be performed mainly by the Reactor Risk Branch (RRB), Division of Risk Analysis and Operations (DRAO), Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research. It includes those activities of other DRAO branches which are very closely related to those of the RRB. Related or interfacing programs of other divisions, offices and organizations are merely indicated. The primary use of this document is envisioned as an NRC working document, covering about a 3-year period, to foster better coordination in reliability and risk analysis methods development between the offices of Nuclear Regulatory Research and Nuclear Reactor Regulation. It will also serve as an information source for contractors and others to more clearly understand the objectives, needs, programmatic activities and interfaces together with the overall logical structure of the program

  8. Gender Analysis of Risk in Innovation System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ayinde, Ope; Muchie, Mammo; Abaniyan, E. O.

    2011-01-01

    the new maize variety. The analytical tools used include descriptive statistics, regression model; risk utility functions and risk parameter analysis. The result showed that invasion by animals, disease and pest, lack of access to credit wind and price fluctuation were the major risk facing the maize......This study analyzed risk by gender in innovation in Kwara state, Nigeria, using downy mildew resistant maize production as case study. The study employed primary and secondary data. The primary data were collected from well-structured questionnaires administered to both male and female producing...... producers in the area in the usage of the new innovation. The study also revealed that male producers were willing to take risk in the new maize variety production than the female, while the females were more indifferent to the risk involved in the new maize production variety than males. None...

  9. Intentional risk management through complex networks analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Chapela, Victor; Moral, Santiago; Romance, Miguel

    2015-01-01

    This book combines game theory and complex networks to examine intentional technological risk through modeling. As information security risks are in constant evolution,  the methodologies and tools to manage them must evolve to an ever-changing environment. A formal global methodology is explained  in this book, which is able to analyze risks in cyber security based on complex network models and ideas extracted from the Nash equilibrium. A risk management methodology for IT critical infrastructures is introduced which provides guidance and analysis on decision making models and real situations. This model manages the risk of succumbing to a digital attack and assesses an attack from the following three variables: income obtained, expense needed to carry out an attack, and the potential consequences for an attack. Graduate students and researchers interested in cyber security, complex network applications and intentional risk will find this book useful as it is filled with a number of models, methodologies a...

  10. WIPP fire hazards and risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-05-01

    The purpose of this analysis was to conduct a fire hazards risk analysis of the Transuranic (TRU) contact-handled waste receipt, emplacement, and disposal activities at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). The technical bases and safety envelope for these operations are defined in the approved WIPP Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR). Although the safety documentation for the initial phase of the Test Program, the dry bin scale tests, has not yet been approved by the Department of Energy (DOE), reviews of the draft to date, including those by the Advisory Committee on Nuclear Facility Safety (ACNFS), have concluded that the dry bin scale tests present no significant risks in excess of those estimated in the approved WIPP FSAR. It is the opinion of the authors and reviewers of this analysis, based on sound engineering judgment and knowledge of the WIPP operations, that a Fire Hazards and Risk Analysis specific to the dry bin scale test program is not warranted prior to first waste receipt. This conclusion is further supported by the risk analysis presented in this document which demonstrates the level of risk to WIPP operations posed by fire to be extremely low. 15 refs., 41 figs., 48 tabs

  11. Issues in risk analysis of passive LWR designs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Youngblood, R.W.; Pratt, W.T.; Amico, P.J.; Gallagher, D.

    1992-01-01

    This paper discusses issues which bear on the question of how safety is to be demonstrated for ''simplified passive'' light water reactor (LWR) designs. First, a very simplified comparison is made between certain systems in today's plants. comparable systems in evolutionary designs, and comparable systems in the simplified passives. in order to introduce the issues. This discussion is not intended to describe the designs comprehensively, but is offered only to show why certain issues seem to be important in these particular designs. Next, an important class of accident sequences is described; finally, based on this discussion, some priorities in risk analysis are presented and discussed

  12. Qualitative evaluation of primary care providers experiences of a training programme to offer brief behaviour change counselling on risk factors for non-communicable diseases in South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malan, Zelra; Mash, Robert; Everett-Murphy, Katherine

    2015-08-19

    The global epidemic of non-communicable disease (NCDs) has been linked with four modifiable risky lifestyle behaviours, namely smoking, unhealthy diet, physical inactivity and alcohol abuse. Primary care providers (PCPs) can play an important role in changing patient's risky behaviours. It is recommended that PCPs provide individual brief behaviour change counselling (BBCC) as part of everyday primary care. This study is part of a larger project that re-designed the current training for PCPs in South Africa, to offer a standardized approach to BBCC based on the 5 As and a guiding style. This article reports on a qualitative sub-study, which explored whether the training intervention changed PCPs perception of their confidence in their ability to offer BBCC, whether they believed that the new approach could overcome the barriers to implementation in clinical practice and be sustained, and their recommendations on future training and integration of BBCC into curricula and clinical practice. This was a qualitative study that used verbal feedback from participants at the beginning and end of the training course, and twelve individual in-depth interviews with participants once they had returned to their clinical practice. Although PCP's confidence in their ability to counselling improved, and some thought that time constraints could be overcome, they still reported that understaffing, lack of support from within the facility and poor continuity of care were barriers to counselling. However, the current organisational culture was not congruent with the patient-centred guiding style of BBCC. Training should be incorporated into undergraduate curricula of PCPs for both nurses and doctors, to ensure that counselling skills are embedded from the start. Existing PCPs should be offered training as part of continued professional development programmes. This study showed that although training changed PCPs perception of their ability to offer BBCC, and increased their confidence

  13. Standardised risk analysis as a communication tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pluess, Ch.; Montanarini, M.; Bernauer, M.

    1998-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: several European countries require a risk analysis for the production, storage or transport a dangerous goods. This requirement imposes considerable administrative effort for some sectors of the industry. In order to minimize the effort of such studies, a generic risk analysis for an industrial sector proved to help. Standardised procedures can consequently be derived for efficient performance of the risk investigations. This procedure was successfully established in Switzerland for natural gas transmission lines and fossil fuel storage plants. The development process of the generic risk analysis involved an intense discussion between industry and authorities about methodology of assessment and the criteria of acceptance. This process finally led to scientific consistent modelling tools for risk analysis and to an improved communication from the industry to the authorities and the public. As a recent example, the Holland-Italy natural gas transmission pipeline is demonstrated, where this method was successfully employed. Although this pipeline traverses densely populated areas in Switzerland, using this established communication method, the risk problems could be solved without delaying the planning process. (authors)

  14. Utilizing risk index for overdose or serious opioid-induced respiratory depression (RIOSORD) scores to prioritize offer of rescue naloxone in an outpatient veteran population: A telephone-based project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yates, Derek; Frey, Theresa; Montgomery, Jean Charles

    2018-03-26

    Since 2014, the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) has been working to address the ongoing opioid epidemic through opioid-education initiatives, the development of risk calculators, and other risk stratification tools. One primary focus of VA efforts has been the distribution of rescue naloxone kits to veterans at greatest risk of opioid-related adverse events. The purpose of this project was to identify primary care veterans at highest risk for serious opioid-related adverse events using the Risk Index for Overdose and Serious Opioid-Induced Respiratory Depression (RIOSORD) and offer rescue naloxone kits by telephone-based outreach. RIOSORD is a risk-stratification tool developed and validated within the veteran population. Veterans identified at highest risk of overdose or opioid-related adverse effects were contacted by telephone or letter to offer to provide a rescue naloxone kit between November 1 st , 2016 and February 1 st , 2017. The primary outcome of the project was the percentage of patients contacted that agreed to a naloxone prescription. Secondary outcomes included comparative efficacy of phone versus letter contact and reasons for refusal of naloxone if the offer was declined. Of 41 veterans targeted by this project, most were successfully reached by telephone within three attempts (92.7%, n = 38). Approximately two-thirds of those reached by telephone agreed to a prescription for rescue naloxone (n = 26, 63.4%). The veterans that requested rescue naloxone selected the nasal formulation (n = 17) over the intramuscular auto-injector (n = 9). This project demonstrated that telephone-based outreach can be one method of distributing rescue naloxone to a high-risk patient population without requiring an in-person visit to a provider.

  15. A comprehensive strength testing protocol offers no clinical value in predicting risk of hamstring injury: a prospective cohort study of 413 professional football players.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Dyk, Nicol; Bahr, Roald; Burnett, Angus F; Whiteley, Rod; Bakken, Arnhild; Mosler, Andrea; Farooq, Abdulaziz; Witvrouw, Erik

    2017-12-01

    Hamstring injuries remain prevalent across a number of professional sports. In football, the incidence has even increased by 4% per year at the Champions League level over the last decade. The role of muscle strength or strength ratios and their association with risk of hamstring injury remain restricted by small sample sizes and inconclusive results. The purpose of this study is to identify risk factors for hamstring injury in professional football players in an adequately powered, prospective cohort study. Using both established (isokinetic) and novel (eccentric hamstring test device) measures of muscle strength, we aimed to investigate the relationship between these strength characteristics over the entire range of motion with risk of hamstring injury. All teams (n=18) eligible to compete in the premier football league in Qatar underwent a comprehensive strength assessment during their annual periodic health evaluation at Aspetar Orthopaedic and Sports Medicine Hospital in Doha, Qatar. Variables included isokinetic strength, Nordic hamstring exercise strength and dynamic hamstring: quadriceps ratios. Of the 413 players included (68.2% of all league players), 66 suffered a hamstring injury over the two seasons. Only isokinetic quadriceps concentric at 300°/s (adjusted for bodyweight) was associated with risk of hamstring injury when considered categorically. Age, body mass and playing position were also associated with risk of hamstring injury. None of the other 23 strength variables examined were found to be associated with hamstring injury. The clinical value of isolated strength testing is limited, and its use in musculoskeletal screening to predict future hamstring injury is unfounded. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  16. Risk analysis of industrial plants operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, Philippe

    1989-12-01

    This study examines the possibilities of systematic technology risk analysis in view of territorial management (city, urban community, region), including chronic and accidental risks. The objective was to relate this evaluation with those done for permanent water and air pollution. Risk management for pollution are done for a long time. A number of studies were done in urban communities and regions both for air and water pollution. The second objective is related to management of industrial risks: nuclear, petrochemical, transport of hazardous material, pipelines, etc. At the beginning, three possibilities of effects are taken into account: human health, economic aspect and water, and possibilities of evaluation are identified. Elements of risk identification are presented for quantification of results [fr

  17. Risk analysis of alternative energy sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kazmer, D.R.

    1982-01-01

    The author explores two points raised by Miller Spangler in a January 1981 issue: public perception of risks involving nuclear power plants relative to those of conventional plants and criteria for evaluating the way risk analyses are made. On the first point, he concludes that translating public attitudes into the experts' language of probability and risk could provide better information and understanding of both the attitudes and the risks. Viewing risk analysis methodologies as filters which help to test historical change, he suggests that the lack of information favors a lay jury approach for energy decisions. Spangler responds that Congress is an example of lay decision making, but that a lay jury, given public disinterest and polarization, would probably not improve social justice on the nuclear issue. 5 references, 4 figures

  18. LANDSAFE: LANDING SITE RISK ANALYSIS SOFTWARE FRAMEWORK

    OpenAIRE

    Schmidt, Ralph; Bostelmann, Jonas; Cornet, Yves; Heipke, Christian; Philippe, Christian; Poncelet, Nadia; de Rosa, Diego; Vandeloise, Yannick

    2012-01-01

    The European Space Agency (ESA) is planning a Lunar Lander mission in the 2018 timeframe that will demonstrate precise soft landing at the polar regions of the Moon. To ensure a safe and successful landing a careful risk analysis has to be carried out. This is comprised of identifying favorable target areas and evaluating the surface conditions in these areas. Features like craters, boulders, steep slopes, rough surfaces and shadow areas have to be identified in order to assess the risk assoc...

  19. Impact Analysis for Risks in Informatics Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Baicu, Floarea; Baches, Maria Alexandra

    2013-01-01

    In this paper are presented methods of impact analysis on informatics system security accidents, qualitative and quantitative methods, starting with risk and informational system security definitions. It is presented the relationship between the risks of exploiting vulnerabilities of security system, security level of these informatics systems, probability of exploiting the weak points subject to financial losses of a company, respectively impact of a security accident on the company. Herewit...

  20. Evaluating management risks using landscape trajectory analysis: a case study of California fisher

    Science.gov (United States)

    Craig M. Thompson; William J. Zielinski; Kathryn L. Purcell

    2011-01-01

    Ecosystem management requires an understanding of how landscapes vary in space and time, how this variation can be affected by management decisions or stochastic events, and the potential consequences for species. Landscape trajectory analysis, coupled with a basic knowledge of species habitat selection, offers a straightforward approach to ecological risk analysis and...

  1. Offers for our members

    CERN Multimedia

    Staff Association

    2013-01-01

    The Courir shops propose the following offer: 15% discount on all articles (not on sales) in the Courir shops (Val Thoiry, Annemasse and Neydens) and 5% discount on sales upon presentation of your Staff Association membership card and an identity card before payment. Summer is here, enjoy our offers for the aquatic parcs! Walibi : Tickets "Zone terrestre": 21 € instead of 26 €. Access to Aqualibi: 5 € instead of 8 € on presentation of your SA member ticket. Free for children (3-11 years old) before 12 h 00. Free for children under 3, with limited access to the attractions. Car park free. * * * * * Aquaparc : Day ticket: – Children: 30 CHF instead of 39 CHF – Adults : 36 CHF instead of 49 CHF Bonus! Free for children under 5.

  2. Offers for our members

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    Summer is coming, enjoy our offers for the aquatic parcs! Walibi : Tickets "Zone terrestre": 25 € instead of 31 €. Access to Aqualibi: 5 € instead of 8 € on presentation of your Staff Association member ticket. Free for children under 100 cm. Car park free. * * * * * Aquaparc : Day ticket: – Children: 33 CHF instead of 39 CHF – Adults : 33 CHF instead of 49 CHF Bonus! Free for children under 5.  

  3. Offers for our members

    CERN Multimedia

    Staff Association

    2017-01-01

    Summer is here, enjoy our offers for the aquatic parcs! Walibi : Tickets "Zone terrestre": 24 € instead of 30 €. Access to Aqualibi: 5 € instead of 6 € on presentation of your SA member ticket. Free for children under 100 cm. Car park free. * * * * * Aquaparc : Day ticket: – Children: 33 CHF instead of 39 CHF – Adults : 33 CHF instead of 49 CHF Bonus! Free for children under 5.

  4. Offers for our members

    CERN Multimedia

    Staff Association

    2017-01-01

    Summer is coming, enjoy our offers for the aquatic parcs! Walibi : Tickets "Zone terrestre": 24 € instead of 30 €. Access to Aqualibi: 5 € instead of 6 € on presentation of your SA member ticket. Free for children under 100 cm. Car park free. * * * * * Aquaparc : Day ticket: – Children: 33 CHF instead of 39 CHF – Adults : 33 CHF instead of 49 CHF Bonus! Free for children under 5.

  5. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  6. Evaluating alternative offering strategies for wind producers in a pool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rahimiyan, Morteza; Morales, Juan M.; Conejo, Antonio J.

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → Out-of-sample analysis allows comparing diverse offers using real-world data. → Offering the best production forecast is not optimal for a wind producer. → Stochastic programming offers lead to maximum expected profit. → Offering the best production forecast is not generally optimal for risk control. → Stochastic programming offers lead to the best tradeoff profit versus risk. -- Abstract: As wind power technology matures and reaches break-even cost, wind producers find it increasingly attractive to participate in pool markets instead of being paid feed-in tariffs. The key issue is then how a wind producer should offer in the pool markets to achieve maximum profit while controlling the variability of such profit. This paper compares two families of offering strategies based, respectively, on a naive use of wind production forecasts and on stochastic programming models. These strategies are compared through a comprehensive out-of-sample chronological analysis based on real-world data. A number of relevant conclusions are then duly drawn.

  7. Model for the techno-economic analysis of common work of wind power and CCGT power plant to offer constant level of power in the electricity market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomsic Z.

    2017-01-01

    For calculation purposes, the following parameters are necessary to know in order to be able to economically evaluate changes in the start-up process: ramp up and down rate, time of start time reduction, fuel mass flow during start, electricity production during start, variable cost of start-up process, cost and charges for life time consumption for each start and start type, remuneration during start up time regarding expected or unexpected starts, the cost and revenues for balancing energy (important when participating in electricity market, and the cost or revenues for CO2-certificates. Main motivation for this analysis is to investigate possibilities to participate on power exchanges by offering continues guarantied power from wind plants by backing-up them with CCGT power plant.

  8. Risk analysis of investments in-farm milk cooling tanks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danielle D. Sant´Anna

    2003-06-01

    Full Text Available A risk analysis for the installation of milk cooling tanks (250, 500 and 1,000 L on Brazilian rural properties was conducted in this study. The results showed that all investments had a return higher than the annual 12% minimum rate of attractiveness. There was a direct relationship between tank size and investment profitability and an inverse relation between size and risk. The probability of achieving returns lower than the opportunity cost was highest for the smallest tank (42%. In order to make the investment in small cooling tanks more attractive, the dairy industry incentives offered to farmers for supplying cooled milk could be increased. However, this approach might make investments in bulk milk collection by dairy companies infeasible. Thus, a recommendable strategy for a successful modernization of the Brazilian dairy sector’s inbound logistics would be to promote an increase in the volume of the milk produced per farm.

  9. Offers for our members

    CERN Multimedia

    Staff Association

    2013-01-01

    Summer is here, enjoy our offers for the aquatic parcs! Walibi : Tickets "Zone terrestre": 21 € instead of 26 €. Access to Aqualibi: 5 € instead of 8 € on presentation of your SA member ticket. Free for children (3-11 years old) before 12 h 00. Free for children under 3, with limited access to the attractions. Car park free. * * * * * Aquaparc : Day ticket: – Children: 30 CHF instead of 39 CHF – Adults : 36 CHF instead of 49 CHF Bonus! Free for children under 5.

  10. Offers for our members

    CERN Multimedia

    Staff Association

    2015-01-01

    Summer is here, enjoy our offers for the aquatic parcs! Walibi : Tickets "Zone terrestre": 21,50 € instead of 27 €. Access to Aqualibi: 5 € instead of 6 € on presentation of your SA member ticket. Free for children (3-11 years old) before 12:00 p.m. Free for children under 3, with limited access to the attractions. Car park free. * * * * * Aquaparc : Day ticket: – Children: 33 CHF instead of 39 CHF – Adults : 33 CHF instead of 49 CHF Bonus! Free for children under 5.

  11. Offers for our members

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    Staff Association

    2016-01-01

    Summer is here, enjoy our offers for the aquatic parcs! Walibi : Tickets "Zone terrestre": 23 € instead of 29 €. Access to Aqualibi: 5 € instead of 6 € on presentation of your SA member ticket. Free for children (3-11 years old) before 12:00 p.m. Free for children under 3, with limited access to the attractions. Car park free. * * * * * Aquaparc : Day ticket: – Children: 33 CHF instead of 39 CHF – Adults : 33 CHF instead of 49 CHF Bonus! Free for children under 5.

  12. Offers for our members

    CERN Multimedia

    Staff Association

    2017-01-01

    Summer is here, enjoy our offers for the water parks! Walibi: Tickets "Zone terrestre": 24 € instead of 30 €. Access to Aqualibi: 5 € instead of 6 € on presentation of your ticket purchased at the Staff Association. Bonus! Free for children under 100 cm, with limited access to the attractions. Free car park. *  *  *  *  *  *  *  * Aquaparc: Day ticket: -  Children: 33 CHF instead of 39 CHF -  Adults : 33 CHF instead of 49 CHF Bonus! Free for children under 5 years old.

  13. The watchdog role of risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reijen, G. van; Vinck, W.

    1983-01-01

    The reason why the risks of large-scale technology attract more attention lies in the fact that accidents would have more disastrous results and in the fact that it is probably more attractive to study the risks of some large projects than to do the same for a greater number of smaller projects. Within this presentation there will be some opening remarks on the Role of the Commission of the European Community with regard to accident prevention. The development of the concept of quantitative risks is dealt with. This development leads to a combinded of deterministic and probabilistic methods. The presentation concludes with some critical remarks on quantitative risk analysis and its use. (orig./HP) [de

  14. Implementing the Bayesian paradigm in risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aven, T.; Kvaloey, J.T.

    2002-01-01

    The Bayesian paradigm comprises a unified and consistent framework for analyzing and expressing risk. Yet, we see rather few examples of applications where the full Bayesian setting has been adopted with specifications of priors of unknown parameters. In this paper, we discuss some of the practical challenges of implementing Bayesian thinking and methods in risk analysis, emphasizing the introduction of probability models and parameters and associated uncertainty assessments. We conclude that there is a need for a pragmatic view in order to 'successfully' apply the Bayesian approach, such that we can do the assignments of some of the probabilities without adopting the somewhat sophisticated procedure of specifying prior distributions of parameters. A simple risk analysis example is presented to illustrate ideas

  15. Game Theoretic Risk Analysis of Security Threats

    CERN Document Server

    Bier, Vicki M

    2008-01-01

    Introduces reliability and risk analysis in the face of threats by intelligent agents. This book covers applications to networks, including problems in both telecommunications and transportation. It provides a set of tools for applying game theory TO reliability problems in the presence of intentional, intelligent threats

  16. Economic impact assessment in pest risk analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Soliman, T.A.A.; Mourits, M.C.M.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.; Werf, van der W.

    2010-01-01

    According to international treaties, phytosanitary measures against introduction and spread of invasive plant pests must be justified by a science-based pest risk analysis (PRA). Part of the PRA consists of an assessment of potential economic consequences. This paper evaluates the main available

  17. Offer for our members

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    Staff Association

    2017-01-01

    The Staff Association CERN staff has recently concluded a framework agreement with AXA Insurance Ltd, General-Guisan-Strasse 40, 8401 Winterthur. This contract allows you to benefit from a preferential tariff and conditions for insurances: Motor vehicles for passenger cars and motorcycles of the product line STRADA: 10% discount Household insurance (personal liability and household contents) the product line BOX: 10% discount Travel insurance: 10% discount Buildings: 10% discount Legal protection: 10% discount AXA is number one on the Swiss insurance market. The product range encompasses all non-life insurance such as insurance of persons, property, civil liability, vehicles, credit and travel as well as innovative and comprehensive solutions in the field of occupational benefits insurance for individuals and businesses. Finally, the affiliate AXA-ARAG (legal expenses insurance) completes the offer. For those of you already insured with the company, contact your current advisor. Others may contact a counsel...

  18. Offers for our members

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    Association du personnel

    2013-01-01

    La banque LCL propose aux membres de l’Association du personnel les avantages suivants : – Un barème Privilège sur le Prêt immobilier – Des avantages tarifaires sur l’épargne, notamment l’assurance-vie. – Un taux préférentiel de prêt à la consommation. En outre, jusqu’au 30 septembre 2013, elle offre 50€ à tous les nouveaux clients, membres de l'Association du personnel. Summer is here, enjoy our offers for the aquatic parcs! Tickets "Zone terrestre" : 21 € instead of de 26 €. Access to Aqualibi : 5 euros instead of 8 euros on presentation of your SA member ticket. Free for children (3-11 years old) before 12 h 00. Free for children under 3, with limited access to the attractions. Free car park. * * * * * * * Full day ticket: – Children : 30 CHF instead of 39 CHF &...

  19. Offers for our members

    CERN Multimedia

    Staff Association

    2013-01-01

    The warm weather arrives, it's time to take advantage of our offers Walibi and Aquapark! Walibi : Tickets "Zone terrestre": 21 € instead of 26 € Access to Aqualibi: 5 € instead of 8 € on presentation of your SA member ticket. Free for children (3-11 years old) before 12 h 00. Free for children under 3, with limited access to the attractions. Car park free. * * * * * Aquaparc : Half-day ticket (5 hours): – Children: 26 CHF instead of 35 CHF – Adults : 32 CHF instead of 43 CHF Day ticket: – Children: 30 CHF instead of 39 CHF – Adults : 36 CHF instead of 49 CHF Free for children under 5.

  20. A content analysis of dissemination and implementation science resource initiatives: what types of resources do they offer to advance the field?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darnell, Doyanne; Dorsey, Caitlin N; Melvin, Abigail; Chi, Jonathan; Lyon, Aaron R; Lewis, Cara C

    2017-11-21

    The recent growth in organized efforts to advance dissemination and implementation (D & I) science suggests a rapidly expanding community focused on the adoption and sustainment of evidence-based practices (EBPs). Although promising for the D & I of EBPs, the proliferation of initiatives is difficult for any one individual to navigate and summarize. Such proliferation may also result in redundant efforts or missed opportunities for participation and advancement. A review of existing D & I science resource initiatives and their unique merits would be a significant step for the field. The present study aimed to describe the global landscape of these organized efforts to advance D & I science. We conducted a content analysis between October 2015 and March 2016 to examine resources and characteristics of D & I science resource initiatives using public, web-based information. Included resource initiatives must have engaged in multiple efforts to advance D & I science beyond conferences, offered D & I science resources, and provided content in English. The sampling method included an Internet search using D & I terms and inquiry among internationally representative D & I science experts. Using a coding scheme based on a priori and grounded approaches, two authors consensus coded website information including interactive and non-interactive resources and information regarding accessibility (membership, cost, competitive application, and location). The vast majority (83%) of resource initiatives offered at least one of seven interactive resources (consultation/technical assistance, mentorship, workshops, workgroups, networking, conferences, and social media) and one of six non-interactive resources (resource library, news and updates from the field, archived talks or slides, links pages, grant writing resources, and funding opportunities). Non-interactive resources were most common, with some appearing frequently across resource initiatives (e.g., news and updates from the

  1. A content analysis of dissemination and implementation science resource initiatives: what types of resources do they offer to advance the field?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Doyanne Darnell

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The recent growth in organized efforts to advance dissemination and implementation (D & I science suggests a rapidly expanding community focused on the adoption and sustainment of evidence-based practices (EBPs. Although promising for the D & I of EBPs, the proliferation of initiatives is difficult for any one individual to navigate and summarize. Such proliferation may also result in redundant efforts or missed opportunities for participation and advancement. A review of existing D & I science resource initiatives and their unique merits would be a significant step for the field. The present study aimed to describe the global landscape of these organized efforts to advance D & I science. Methods We conducted a content analysis between October 2015 and March 2016 to examine resources and characteristics of D & I science resource initiatives using public, web-based information. Included resource initiatives must have engaged in multiple efforts to advance D & I science beyond conferences, offered D & I science resources, and provided content in English. The sampling method included an Internet search using D & I terms and inquiry among internationally representative D & I science experts. Using a coding scheme based on a priori and grounded approaches, two authors consensus coded website information including interactive and non-interactive resources and information regarding accessibility (membership, cost, competitive application, and location. Results The vast majority (83% of resource initiatives offered at least one of seven interactive resources (consultation/technical assistance, mentorship, workshops, workgroups, networking, conferences, and social media and one of six non-interactive resources (resource library, news and updates from the field, archived talks or slides, links pages, grant writing resources, and funding opportunities. Non-interactive resources were most common, with some appearing frequently across

  2. New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skandamis, Panagiotis N.; Andritsos, Nikolaos; Psomas, Antonios; Paramythiotis, Spyridon

    2015-01-01

    The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total ‘failure’ that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user

  3. New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Skandamis, Panagiotis N., E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Andritsos, Nikolaos, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Psomas, Antonios, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Paramythiotis, Spyridon, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr [Laboratory of Food Quality Control and Hygiene, Department of Food Science and Technology, Agricultural University of Athens, Iera Odos 75, 118 55, Athens (Greece)

    2015-01-22

    The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total ‘failure’ that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user

  4. New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skandamis, Panagiotis N.; Andritsos, Nikolaos; Psomas, Antonios; Paramythiotis, Spyridon

    2015-01-01

    The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total `failure' that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user-friendly softwares

  5. Supplemental Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment - Hydrotreater

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lowry, Peter P. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wagner, Katie A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-04-01

    A supplemental hazard analysis was conducted and quantitative risk assessment performed in response to an independent review comment received by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) from the U.S. Department of Energy Pacific Northwest Field Office (PNSO) against the Hydrotreater/Distillation Column Hazard Analysis Report issued in April 2013. The supplemental analysis used the hazardous conditions documented by the previous April 2013 report as a basis. The conditions were screened and grouped for the purpose of identifying whether additional prudent, practical hazard controls could be identified, using a quantitative risk evaluation to assess the adequacy of the controls and establish a lower level of concern for the likelihood of potential serious accidents. Calculations were performed to support conclusions where necessary.

  6. Multivariate survival analysis and competing risks

    CERN Document Server

    Crowder, Martin J

    2012-01-01

    Multivariate Survival Analysis and Competing Risks introduces univariate survival analysis and extends it to the multivariate case. It covers competing risks and counting processes and provides many real-world examples, exercises, and R code. The text discusses survival data, survival distributions, frailty models, parametric methods, multivariate data and distributions, copulas, continuous failure, parametric likelihood inference, and non- and semi-parametric methods. There are many books covering survival analysis, but very few that cover the multivariate case in any depth. Written for a graduate-level audience in statistics/biostatistics, this book includes practical exercises and R code for the examples. The author is renowned for his clear writing style, and this book continues that trend. It is an excellent reference for graduate students and researchers looking for grounding in this burgeoning field of research.

  7. Model for the techno-economic analysis of common work of wind power and CCGT power plant to offer constant level of power in the electricity market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomsic, Z.; Rajsl, I.; Filipovic, M.

    2017-11-01

    Wind power varies over time, mainly under the influence of meteorological fluctuations. The variations occur on all time scales. Understanding these variations and their predictability is of key importance for the integration and optimal utilization of wind in the power system. There are two major attributes of variable generation that notably impact the participation on power exchanges: Variability (the output of variable generation changes and resulting in fluctuations in the plant output on all time scales) and Uncertainty (the magnitude and timing of variable generation output is less predictable, wind power output has low levels of predictability). Because of these variability and uncertainty wind plants cannot participate to electricity market, especially to power exchanges. For this purpose, the paper presents techno-economic analysis of work of wind plants together with combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) plant as support for offering continues power to electricity market. A model of wind farms and CCGT plant was developed in program PLEXOS based on real hourly input data and all characteristics of CCGT with especial analysis of techno-economic characteristics of different types of starts and stops of the plant. The Model analyzes the followings: costs of different start-stop characteristics (hot, warm, cold start-ups and shutdowns) and part load performance of CCGT. Besides the costs, the technical restrictions were considered such as start-up time depending on outage duration, minimum operation time, and minimum load or peaking capability. For calculation purposes, the following parameters are necessary to know in order to be able to economically evaluate changes in the start-up process: ramp up and down rate, time of start time reduction, fuel mass flow during start, electricity production during start, variable cost of start-up process, cost and charges for life time consumption for each start and start type, remuneration during start up time regarding

  8. Terminological Ontologies for Risk and Vulnerability Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Bodil Nistrup; Erdman Thomsen, Hanne

    2014-01-01

    Risk and vulnerability analyses are an important preliminary stage in civil contingency planning. The Danish Emergency Management Agency has developed a generic model and a set of tools that may be used in the preparedness planning, i.e. for identifying and describing society’s critical functions......, for formulating threat scenarios and for assessing consequences. Terminological ontologies, which are systems of domain specific concepts comprising concept relations and characteristics, are useful, both when describing the central concepts of risk and vulnerability analysis (meta concepts), and for further...

  9. Risk analysis for earth dam overtopping

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mo Chongxun

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a model of overtopping risk under the joint effects of floods and wind waves, which is based on risk analysis theory and takes into account the uncertainties of floods, wind waves, reservoir capacity and discharge capacity of the spillway, is proposed and applied to the Chengbihe Reservoir in Baise City in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. The simulated results indicate that the flood control limiting level can be raised by 0.40 m under the condition that the reservoir overtopping risk is controlled within a mean variance of 5×10−6. As a result, the reservoir storage will increase to 16 million m3 and electrical energy generation and other functions of the reservoir will also increase greatly.

  10. Investment appraisal using quantitative risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johansson, Henrik

    2002-07-01

    Investment appraisal concerned with investments in fire safety systems is discussed. Particular attention is directed at evaluating, in terms of the Bayesian decision theory, the risk reduction that investment in a fire safety system involves. It is shown how the monetary value of the change from a building design without any specific fire protection system to one including such a system can be estimated by use of quantitative risk analysis, the results of which are expressed in terms of a Risk-adjusted net present value. This represents the intrinsic monetary value of investing in the fire safety system. The method suggested is exemplified by a case study performed in an Avesta Sheffield factory.

  11. Quantitative Risk Analysis: Method And Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anass BAYAGA

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Recent and past studies (King III report, 2009: 73-75; Stoney 2007;Committee of Sponsoring Organisation-COSO, 2004, Bartell, 2003; Liebenberg and Hoyt, 2003; Reason, 2000; Markowitz 1957 lament that although, the introduction of quantifying risk to enhance degree of objectivity in finance for instance was quite parallel to its development in the manufacturing industry, it is not the same in Higher Education Institution (HEI. In this regard, the objective of the paper was to demonstrate the methods and process of Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA through likelihood of occurrence of risk (phase I. This paper serves as first of a two-phased study, which sampled hundred (100 risk analysts in a University in the greater Eastern Cape Province of South Africa.The analysis of likelihood of occurrence of risk by logistic regression and percentages were conducted to investigate whether there were a significant difference or not between groups (analyst in respect of QRA.The Hosmer and Lemeshow test was non-significant with a chi-square(X2 =8.181; p = 0.300, which indicated that there was a good model fit, since the data did not significantly deviate from the model. The study concluded that to derive an overall likelihood rating that indicated the probability that a potential risk may be exercised within the construct of an associated threat environment, the following governing factors must be considered: (1 threat source motivation and capability (2 nature of the vulnerability (3 existence and effectiveness of current controls (methods and process.

  12. Risk analysis as a decision tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yadigaroglu, G.; Chakraborty, S.

    1985-01-01

    From 1983 - 1985 a lecture series entitled ''Risk-benefit analysis'' was held at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH), Zurich, in cooperation with the Central Department for the Safety of Nuclear Installations of the Swiss Federal Agency of Energy Economy. In that setting the value of risk-oriented evaluation models as a decision tool in safety questions was discussed on a broad basis. Experts of international reputation from the Federal Republic of Germany, France, Canada, the United States and Switzerland have contributed to report in this joint volume on the uses of such models. Following an introductory synopsis on risk analysis and risk assessment the book deals with practical examples in the fields of medicine, nuclear power, chemistry, transport and civil engineering. Particular attention is paid to the dialogue between analysts and decision makers taking into account the economic-technical aspects and social values. The recent chemical disaster in the Indian city of Bhopal again signals the necessity of such analyses. All the lectures were recorded individually. (orig./HP) [de

  13. Quantitative risk analysis preoperational of gas pipeline

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Manfredi, Carlos; Bispo, Gustavo G.; Esteves, Alvaro [Gie S.A., Buenos Aires (Argentina)

    2009-07-01

    The purpose of this analysis is to predict how it can be affected the individual risk and the public's general security due to the operation of a gas pipeline. In case that the single or social risks are considered intolerable, compared with the international standards, to be recommended measures of mitigation of the risk associated to the operation until levels that can be considered compatible with the best practices in the industry. The quantitative risk analysis calculates the probability of occurrence of an event based on the frequency of occurrence of the same one and it requires a complex mathematical treatment. The present work has as objective to develop a calculation methodology based on the previously mentioned publication. This calculation methodology is centered in defining the frequencies of occurrence of events, according to representative database of each case in study. Besides, it settles down the consequences particularly according to the considerations of each area and the different possibilities of interferences with the gas pipeline in study. For each one of the interferences a typical curve of ignition probabilities is developed in function from the distance to the pipe. (author)

  14. Risk analysis in oil spill response planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chernoplekov, A.N.; Alexandrov, A.A.

    2005-01-01

    Tiered response is a basic approach to emergency plans, including oil spill response (OSR). This paper delineates a huge set of accidental scenarios within a certain tier of response generated by a computer during risk assessment. Parameters such as the amount of oil spilled, duration of discharge and types of losses should be provided in OSR scenarios. Examples of applications include offshore installations, sub sea or onshore pipelines, and localized onshore facilities. The paper demonstrates how to use risk analysis results for delineating all likely spills into groups that need a specific tier response. The best world practices and Russian regulatory approaches were outlined and compared. Corresponding algorithms were developed and their application in pipelines was presented. The algorithm combines expert's skills and spill trajectory modeling with the net environmental benefit analysis principle into the incident specific emergency response planning. 9 refs., 13 tabs., 2 figs

  15. Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russell, K.D.; McKay, M.K.; Sattison, M.B.; Skinner, N.L.; Wood, S.T.; Rasmuson, D.M.

    1992-01-01

    The Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) is a state-of-the-art, microcomputer-based probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model development and analysis tool to address key nuclear plant safety issues. IRRAS is an integrated software tool that gives the user the ability to create and analyze fault trees and accident sequences using a microcomputer. This program provides functions that range from graphical fault tree construction to cut set generation and quantification. Version 1.0 of the IRRAS program was released in February of 1987. Since that time, many user comments and enhancements have been incorporated into the program providing a much more powerful and user-friendly system. This version has been designated IRRAS 4.0 and is the subject of this Reference Manual. Version 4.0 of IRRAS provides the same capabilities as Version 1.0 and adds a relational data base facility for managing the data, improved functionality, and improved algorithm performance

  16. Zero risk fuel fabrication: a systems analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1979-01-01

    Zero risk is a concept used to ensure that system requirements are developed through a systems approach such that the choice(s) among alternatives represents the balanced viewpoints of performance, achievability and risk. Requirements to ensure characteristics such as stringent accountability, low personnel exposure and etc. are needed to guide the development of component and subsystems for future LMFBR fuel supply systems. To establish a consistent and objective set of requirements, RF and M-TMC has initiated a systems requirements analysis activity. This activity pivots on judgement and experience provided by a Task Force representing industrial companies engaged in fuel fabrication in licensed facilities. The Task Force members are listed in Appendix A. Input developed by this group is presented as a starting point for the systems requirements analysis

  17. Risk Analysis of Accounting Information System Infrastructure

    OpenAIRE

    MIHALACHE, Arsenie-Samoil

    2011-01-01

    National economy and security are fully dependent on information technology and infrastructure. At the core of the information infrastructure society relies on, we have the Internet, a system designed initially as a scientists’ forum for unclassified research. The use of communication networks and systems may lead to hazardous situations that generate undesirable effects such as communication systems breakdown, loss of data or taking the wrong decisions. The paper studies the risk analysis of...

  18. Risk analysis of external radiation therapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arvidsson, Marcus

    2011-09-01

    External radiation therapy is carried out via a complex treatment process in which many different groups of staff work together. Much of the work is dependent on and in collaboration with advanced technical equipment. The purpose of the research task has been to identify a process for external radiation therapy and to identify, test and analyze a suitable method for performing risk analysis of external radiation therapy

  19. Risk and value analysis of SETI

    Science.gov (United States)

    Billingham, J.

    1990-01-01

    This paper attempts to apply a traditional risk and value analysis to the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence--SETI. In view of the difficulties of assessing the probability of success, a comparison is made between SETI and a previous search for extraterrestrial life, the biological component of Project Viking. Our application of simple Utility Theory, given some reasonable assumptions, suggests that SETI is at least as worthwhile as the biological experiment on Viking.

  20. Cloning expression and analysis of phytochelatin synthase (pcs) gene from Anabaena sp. PCC 7120 offering multiple stress tolerance in Escherichia coli

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chaurasia, Neha; Mishra, Yogesh; Rai, Lal Chand

    2008-01-01

    Phytochelatin synthase (PCS) is involved in the synthesis of phytochelatins (PCs), plays role in heavy metal detoxification. The present study describes for first time the functional expression and characterization of pcs gene of Anabaena sp. PCC 7120 in Escherichia coli in terms of offering protection against heat, salt, carbofuron (pesticide), cadmium, copper, and UV-B stress. The involvement of pcs gene in tolerance to above abiotic stresses was investigated by cloning of pcs gene in expression vector pGEX-5X-2 and its transformation in E. coli BL21 (DE3). The E. coli cells transformed with pGEX-5X-pcs showed better growth than control cells (pGEX-5X-2) under temperature (47 deg. C), NaCl (6% w/v), carbofuron (0.025 mg ml -1 ), CdCl 2 (4 mM), CuCl 2 (1 mM), and UV-B (10 min) exposure. The enhanced expression of pcs gene revealed by RT-PCR analysis under above stresses at different time intervals further advocates its role in tolerance against above abiotic stresses

  1. Applied decision analysis and risk evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferse, W.; Kruber, S.

    1995-01-01

    During 1994 the workgroup 'Applied Decision Analysis and Risk Evaluation; continued the work on the knowledge based decision support system XUMA-GEFA for the evaluation of the hazard potential of contaminated sites. Additionally a new research direction was started which aims at the support of a later stage of the treatment of contaminated sites: The clean-up decision. For the support of decisions arising at this stage, the methods of decision analysis will be used. Computational aids for evaluation and decision support were implemented and a case study at a waste disposal site in Saxony which turns out to be a danger for the surrounding groundwater ressource was initiated. (orig.)

  2. LANDSAFE: LANDING SITE RISK ANALYSIS SOFTWARE FRAMEWORK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Schmidt

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The European Space Agency (ESA is planning a Lunar Lander mission in the 2018 timeframe that will demonstrate precise soft landing at the polar regions of the Moon. To ensure a safe and successful landing a careful risk analysis has to be carried out. This is comprised of identifying favorable target areas and evaluating the surface conditions in these areas. Features like craters, boulders, steep slopes, rough surfaces and shadow areas have to be identified in order to assess the risk associated to a landing site in terms of a successful touchdown and subsequent surface operation of the lander. In addition, global illumination conditions at the landing site have to be simulated and analyzed. The Landing Site Risk Analysis software framework (LandSAfe is a system for the analysis, selection and certification of safe landing sites on the lunar surface. LandSAfe generates several data products including high resolution digital terrain models (DTMs, hazard maps, illumination maps, temperature maps and surface reflectance maps which assist the user in evaluating potential landing site candidates. This paper presents the LandSAfe system and describes the methods and products of the different modules. For one candidate landing site on the rim of Shackleton crater at the south pole of the Moon a high resolution DTM is showcased.

  3. Regulating food law : risk analysis and the precautionary principle as general principles of EU food law

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Szajkowska, A.

    2012-01-01

    In food law scientific evidence occupies a central position. This study offers a legal insight into risk analysis and the precautionary principle, positioned in the EU as general principles applicable to all food safety measures, both national and EU. It develops a new method of looking at these

  4. Riscos Empresariais Divulgados nas Ofertas Públicas de Ações no BrasilEnterprise Risk Disclosed in Initial Public Offering in BrazilRiesgos Empresariales Divulgados en las Ofertas Públicas de Acciones en Brasil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CUNHA, Paulo Roberto da

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available RESUMOA regulamentação vigente no Brasil determina que empresas que desejam captar recursos no mercado de capitais por meio de emissão de ações devem elaborar um Prospecto de Oferta Pública de Ações no qual devem informar, entre outros fatores, todos os riscos que podem afetar o negócio. O objetivo deste artigo é investigar o nível de evidenciação dos riscos empresariais informados nesses prospectos. O delineamento metodológico foi descritivo com uma abordagem qualitativa. O objeto de análise consistiu nos Prospectos Definitivos de Oferta Pública de Ações listados na Comissão de Valores Mobiliários (CVM no ano de 2008. A amostra consistiu em 10 empresas de diversos segmentos. Adotou-se um critério de pontuação por meio do qual foi verificado que o percentual médio de pontuação atingido foi de 59% de evidenciação. Foram definidos também indicadores do nível de evidenciação por categoria de risco e por empresa. Esse percentual variou entre 42% da categoria “riscos da emissora” até 85% na categoria “riscos relacionados ao acionista”. Quanto à pontuação das empresas, a menor pontuação foi obtida pela Le Lis Blanc, com 51%, enquanto a Vale do Rio Doce obteve a maior pontuação, 66% do total possível. Como conclusão geral, constatou-se que o nível de evidenciação de riscos nos prospectos de oferta de ações ainda não é satisfatório. Possíveis causas para esse fenômeno são analisadas.ABSTRACTThe current legislation in Brazil requires that companies wishing to raise funds in capital markets through issuance of shares shall prepare a prospectus for Initial Public Offering (IPO in which they inform, among other things, all risks that may affect the business. The aim of this paper is to investigate the level of disclosure of business risks reported in these prospectuses. The methodological design was a descriptive qualitative approach. The object of analysis consisted of the final prospectus for

  5. Safety analysis and risk assessment handbook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, V.L.; Colwell, R.G.; Dickey, R.L.

    1997-01-01

    This Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) provides guidance to the safety analyst at the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site (RFETS) in the preparation of safety analyses and risk assessments. Although the older guidance (the Rocky Flats Risk Assessment Guide) continues to be used for updating the Final Safety Analysis Reports developed in the mid-1980s, this new guidance is used with all new authorization basis documents. With the mission change at RFETS came the need to establish new authorization basis documents for its facilities, whose functions had changed. The methodology and databases for performing the evaluations that support the new authorization basis documents had to be standardized, to avoid the use of different approaches and/or databases for similar accidents in different facilities. This handbook presents this new standardized approach. The handbook begins with a discussion of the requirements of the different types of authorization basis documents and how to choose the one appropriate for the facility to be evaluated. It then walks the analyst through the process of identifying all the potential hazards in the facility, classifying them, and choosing the ones that need to be analyzed further. It then discusses the methods for evaluating accident initiation and progression and covers the basic steps in a safety analysis, including consequence and frequency binning and risk ranking. The handbook lays out standardized approaches for determining the source terms of the various accidents (including airborne release fractions, leakpath factors, etc.), the atmospheric dispersion factors appropriate for Rocky Flats, and the methods for radiological and chemical consequence assessments. The radiological assessments use a radiological open-quotes templateclose quotes, a spreadsheet that incorporates the standard values of parameters, whereas the chemical assessments use the standard codes ARCHIE and ALOHA

  6. Risk analysis of nuclear safeguards regulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al-Ayat, R.A.; Altman, W.D.; Judd, B.R.

    1982-06-01

    The Aggregated Systems Model (ASM), a probabilisitic risk analysis tool for nuclear safeguards, was applied to determine benefits and costs of proposed amendments to NRC regulations governing nuclear material control and accounting systems. The objective of the amendments was to improve the ability to detect insiders attempting to steal large quantities of special nuclear material (SNM). Insider threats range from likely events with minor consequences to unlikely events with catastrophic consequences. Moreover, establishing safeguards regulations is complicated by uncertainties in threats, safeguards performance, and consequences, and by the subjective judgments and difficult trade-offs between risks and safeguards costs. The ASM systematically incorporates these factors in a comprehensive, analytical framework. The ASM was used to evaluate the effectiveness of current safeguards and to quantify the risk of SNM theft. Various modifications designed to meet the objectives of the proposed amendments to reduce that risk were analyzed. Safeguards effectiveness was judged in terms of the probability of detecting and preventing theft, the expected time to detection, and the expected quantity of SNM diverted in a year. Data were gathered in tours and interviews at NRC-licensed facilities. The assessment at each facility was begun by carefully selecting scenarios representing the range of potential insider threats. A team of analysts and facility managers assigned probabilities for detection and prevention events in each scenario. Using the ASM we computed the measures of system effectiveness and identified cost-effective safeguards modifications that met the objectives of the proposed amendments

  7. AGROFOREST SYSTEM INVESTMENT ANALYSIS UNDER RISK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luiz Moreira Coelho Junior

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Agroforestry System is the ecological and economical interaction of the use of the land, with the combination ofagriculture, livestock and forest production, in temporary sequence and in a simultaneous way. The studies of investments in projectsassume the existence of risks and uncertainties. An alternative to reduce the risk in the forest investment is the association with theagricultural. This work analyzed the situations of risk of a system agroflorestal. Monte Carlo s method comes from the theory ofsimulations and stands out as a powerful and useful tool to provide a distribution of probabilities for the analysis of decision. A totalof 10,000 interactions of the Net Present Value (VPL, of Internal Rate of Return (TIR and of the Equivalent Periodic Benefit (BPEwere made in order to establish the probability distribution. The results presented 78.65% of chance of VPL being US$ 1,410.00;77.56% of chance of TIR being 36.36%, and; 75.39% of chance of BPE being US$ 309.70; the agroforestry system presented lowinvestment risk; and the livestock is the main product of the agrossilvopastoril system, followed by charcoal.

  8. Approach to uncertainty in risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rish, W.R.

    1988-08-01

    In the Fall of 1985 EPA's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) initiated a project to develop a formal approach to dealing with uncertainties encountered when estimating and evaluating risks to human health and the environment. Based on a literature review of modeling uncertainty, interviews with ORP technical and management staff, and input from experts on uncertainty analysis, a comprehensive approach was developed. This approach recognizes by design the constraints on budget, time, manpower, expertise, and availability of information often encountered in ''real world'' modeling. It is based on the observation that in practice risk modeling is usually done to support a decision process. As such, the approach focuses on how to frame a given risk modeling problem, how to use that framing to select an appropriate mixture of uncertainty analyses techniques, and how to integrate the techniques into an uncertainty assessment that effectively communicates important information and insight to decision-makers. The approach is presented in this report. Practical guidance on characterizing and analyzing uncertainties about model form and quantities and on effectively communicating uncertainty analysis results is included. Examples from actual applications are presented.

  9. Approach to uncertainty in risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rish, W.R.

    1988-08-01

    In the Fall of 1985 EPA's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) initiated a project to develop a formal approach to dealing with uncertainties encountered when estimating and evaluating risks to human health and the environment. Based on a literature review of modeling uncertainty, interviews with ORP technical and management staff, and input from experts on uncertainty analysis, a comprehensive approach was developed. This approach recognizes by design the constraints on budget, time, manpower, expertise, and availability of information often encountered in ''real world'' modeling. It is based on the observation that in practice risk modeling is usually done to support a decision process. As such, the approach focuses on how to frame a given risk modeling problem, how to use that framing to select an appropriate mixture of uncertainty analyses techniques, and how to integrate the techniques into an uncertainty assessment that effectively communicates important information and insight to decision-makers. The approach is presented in this report. Practical guidance on characterizing and analyzing uncertainties about model form and quantities and on effectively communicating uncertainty analysis results is included. Examples from actual applications are presented

  10. What is sought from graphic designers? A first thematic analysis of job offers for graphic design positions in the United Kingdom

    OpenAIRE

    Nicoletti Dziobczenski, Paulo; Person, Oscar

    2016-01-01

    An empirically grounded understanding about which knowledge and skills that are sought from designers is missing for a number of professional subfields of design. This gap in research challenges i) design educators in planning their educational offerings and ii) design practitioners and students in articulating their contribution to clients and future employers. In this paper, we study the references that are made to knowledge and skills in job offers for graphic designers in UK. Based on a f...

  11. Analysis of the Organ Offers Received From European Union Countries Before and After the Introduction of a Dedicated Information Technology Portal: The COORENOR/FOEDUS Portal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peritore, D; Rizzato, L; Di Ciaccio, P; Trapani, S; Carella, C; Oliveti, A; Rizzo, A; Nanni Costa, A

    2017-05-01

    To optimize the use of nontransplantable organs in their own territory, the European Commission, as part of a project led by Italy, has promoted the use of an information technology (IT) portal, the COORENOR portal, developed by the Czech Republic in 2012, which evolved to become FOEDUS in 2015. To evaluate the impact of the portal on our reality, we analyzed the number and type of offers received and organs imported in the previous 48 months (period A) as well as the 48 months after the introduction of the portal (period B). We also examined the origin and the offer mode. The offers received were 404 and 753, respectively, in the two periods, with 315 (41.8%) organs received through the portal. The organs transplanted were 53 and 64, respectively, in the two periods; 20 (31.2%) were sent through the portal. The most commonly offered organs are lungs (36.7% and 29.3% of offers in periods A and B, respectively). The most transplanted organ is the liver (59.4% and 45% of transplants in periods A and B, respectively). The use of the portal has gradually increased, growing from 16.4% of the offer mode in 2012 to 84.7% in 2016. The increase of offers related to the increase of donations and the attitude to the sharing of resources has determined an increase of 19.2% of total transplants, especially for certain types such as pediatric transplants. The portal, ensuring speed and simultaneity of offer, real time sharing of information and transparency of allocation, is also used for trade in the International Partnership Agreements. Therefore, transplants have been conditioned by the existing agreements with Greece, Malta, and the countries of the South Transplant Alliance. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. System Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krantz, E.A.; Russell, K.D.; Stewart, H.D.; Van Siclen, V.S.

    1986-01-01

    Utilization of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) related information in the day-to-day operation of plant systems has, in the past, been impracticable due to the size of the computers needed to run PRA codes. This paper discusses a microcomputer-based database system which can greatly enhance the capability of operators or regulators to incorporate PRA methodologies into their routine decision making. This system is called the System Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) system. SARA was developed by EG and G Idaho, Inc. at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory to facilitate the study of frequency and consequence analyses of accident sequences from a large number of light water reactors (LWRs) in this country. This information is being amassed by several studies sponsored by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC). To meet the need of portability and accessibility, and to perform the variety of calculations necessary, it was felt that a microcomputer-based system would be most suitable

  13. Methodologies for risk analysis in slope instability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernabeu Garcia, M.; Diaz Torres, J. A.

    2014-01-01

    This paper is an approach to the different methodologies used in conducting landslide risk maps so that the reader can get a basic knowledge about how to proceed in its development. The landslide hazard maps are increasingly demanded by governments. This is because due to climate change, deforestation and the pressure exerted by the growth of urban centers, damage caused by natural phenomena is increasing each year, making this area of work a field of study with increasing importance. To explain the process of mapping a journey through each of the phases of which it is composed is made: from the study of the types of slope movements and the necessary management of geographic information systems (GIS) inventories and landslide susceptibility analysis, threat, vulnerability and risk. (Author)

  14. Model risk analysis for risk management and option pricing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kerkhof, F.L.J.

    2003-01-01

    Due to the growing complexity of products in financial markets, market participants rely more and more on quantitative models for trading and risk management decisions. This introduces a fairly new type of risk, namely, model risk. In the first part of this thesis we investigate the quantitative

  15. Nuclear risk analysis of the Ulysses mission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bartram, B.W.; Vaughan, F.R.; Englehart, D.R.W.

    1991-01-01

    The use of a radioisotope thermoelectric generator fueled with plutonium-238 dioxide on the Space Shuttle-launched Ulysses mission implies some level of risk due to potential accidents. This paper describes the method used to quantify risks in the Ulysses mission Final Safety Analysis Report prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy. The starting point for the analysis described herein is following input of source term probability distributions from the General Electric Company. A Monte Carlo technique is used to develop probability distributions of radiological consequences for a range of accident scenarios thoughout the mission. Factors affecting radiological consequences are identified, the probability distribution of the effect of each factor determined, and the functional relationship among all the factors established. The probability distributions of all the factor effects are then combined using a Monte Carlo technique. The results of the analysis are presented in terms of complementary cumulative distribution functions (CCDF) by mission sub-phase, phase, and the overall mission. The CCDFs show the total probability that consequences (calculated health effects) would be equal to or greater than a given value

  16. Risk management and analysis: risk assessment (qualitative and quantitative)

    OpenAIRE

    Valentin Mazareanu

    2007-01-01

    We use to define risk as the possibility of suffering a loss. Starting this, risk management is defined as a business process whose purpose is to ensure that the organization is protected against risks and their effects. In order to prioritize, to develop a response plan and after that to monitor the identified risks we need to asses them. But at this point a question is born: should I choose a qualitative approach or a quantitative one? This paper will make a short overview over the risk eva...

  17. RISK ANALYSIS APPLIED IN OIL EXPLORATION AND PRODUCTION

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ES Obe

    aDepartment of Civil Engineering, University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Enugu State, Nigeria. ... The analysis in this work is ... risk analysis, oil field, risk management, projects, investment opportunity. 1. .... own merit but since the company has limited.

  18. Analysis and risk management after Fukushima

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nelson, P. F.

    2011-11-01

    This article describes the impact in the nuclear industry after the only accidents with affectation to the public: the Three Mile Island and Chernobyl. and discusses what comes after Fukushima with regard to the Safety Probabilistic Analysis (Spa) and their use in the decisions taking. A reference to the standard ASME/ANS of Spa is made and the possible changes due to the learned lessons after the Fukushima accident. The main changes are described in the art state and the priorities of the Spa studies. These include the change in the mission time of the emergency systems, the necessity to model the alternating systems, the risk consideration of a site with multi-units, the importance of making a Spa level 3 and the Spa of external events. The Spa is the key tool of the discipline of risk management, but given the learned lessons, is more necessary in all the aspects of the operation and surveillance of a nuclear power plant. A strategy is presented to improve the response to a severe accident, that includes consider the risks of the specific nuclear power plant. (Author)

  19. Risk Analysis Approach to Rainwater Harvesting Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nadia Ursino

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Urban rainwater reuse preserves water resources and promotes sustainable development in rapidly growing urban areas. The efficiency of a large number of urban water reuse systems, operating under different climate and demand conditions, is evaluated here on the base of a new risk analysis approach. Results obtained by probability analysis (PA indicate that maximum efficiency in low demanding scenarios is above 0.5 and a threshold, distinguishing low from high demanding scenarios, indicates that in low demanding scenarios no significant improvement in performance may be attained by increasing the storage capacity of rainwater harvesting tanks. Threshold behaviour is displayed when tank storage capacity is designed to match both the average collected volume and the average reuse volume. The low demand limit cannot be achieved under climate and operating conditions characterized by a disproportion between harvesting and demand volume.

  20. Radiotherapy May Offer a Recurrence and Survival Benefit in Rectal Cancers Treated Surgically with Transanal Endoscopic Microsurgery: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sideris, Michail; Donaldson, Ana Nora; Hanrahan, John; Grunwald, Matthew; Papagrigoriadis, Savvas

    2018-04-01

    Several studies report outcomes of Transanal Endoscopic Microsurgery (TEMS) surgery in combination with radiotherapy, however the combination of those treatments is provided mostly on an adhoc individual basis and the role of radiotherapy remains unclear. The aim of this study was to identify the effect of neo-adjuvant or adjuvant radiotherapy in the oncological outcomes of rectal cancer treated surgically with TEMS. We performed a systematic review of the literature on MEDLINE and Pubmed databases. Data were extracted by two independent reviewers and meta-analyzed using an inverse variance heterogeneity model to calculate overall (pooled) effect sizes for survival or recurrence of disease against neo+/-adjuvant treatment. A total of 48 studies were included in the qualitative meta-analysis which included 3,285 patients with rectal cancer. The overall survival odds ratio (OR), was 9.39 (95% CI=6.1-14.4) with a Cochran's Q variable of 151.7 on 47 degrees of freedom (d.f.) (p=0.000). Recurrence-free OR was 8.7 (95%CI=6.58-11.44) with a Cochran's Q variable of Q=145.2 on 44 d.f. (p=0.000). Studies which contained more than 10% of pT3 tumours, and provided neo+/-adjuvant treatment in more than 35% of cases, were associated with survival benefit, as demonstrated by an overall odds of survival of 32.2 (95%CI=16.3-63.5, p=0.001, Q=8.4, p=0.21). Studies that contained more than 10% of pT3 tumours and provided neo+/-adjuvant treatment in more than 20% of the cases had an overall effect size of recurrence-free odds of 20.23 (95%CI=13.84-29.57, p=0.000, Q=2.18, p=0.54). There seems to be a benefit from radiotherapy on overall survival and recurrence-free odds, which is more apparent in cohorts with more than 10% of pT3 tumours. Our results suggest that neo-adjuvant or adjuvant radiotherapy should be considered for inclusion in formal treatment protocols for rectal cancers treated with TEMS as they offer a recurrence and survival benefit. Copyright© 2018, International

  1. 48 CFR 570.303-3 - Late offers, modifications of offers, and withdrawals of offers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Late offers, modifications of offers, and withdrawals of offers. 570.303-3 Section 570.303-3 Federal Acquisition Regulations... PROPERTY Contracting Procedures for Leasehold Interests in Real Property 570.303-3 Late offers...

  2. Probabilistic methods in fire-risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brandyberry, M.D.

    1989-01-01

    The first part of this work outlines a method for assessing the frequency of ignition of a consumer product in a building and shows how the method would be used in an example scenario utilizing upholstered furniture as the product and radiant auxiliary heating devices (electric heaters, wood stoves) as the ignition source. Deterministic thermal models of the heat-transport processes are coupled with parameter uncertainty analysis of the models and with a probabilistic analysis of the events involved in a typical scenario. This leads to a distribution for the frequency of ignition for the product. In second part, fire-risk analysis as currently used in nuclear plants is outlines along with a discussion of the relevant uncertainties. The use of the computer code COMPBRN is discussed for use in the fire-growth analysis along with the use of response-surface methodology to quantify uncertainties in the code's use. Generalized response surfaces are developed for temperature versus time for a cable tray, as well as a surface for the hot gas layer temperature and depth for a room of arbitrary geometry within a typical nuclear power plant compartment. These surfaces are then used to simulate the cable tray damage time in a compartment fire experiment

  3. Offer

    CERN Multimedia

    Staff Association

    2015-01-01

    Le parc ouvre ses portes le samedi 4 avril 2015!   La Chasse aux Oeufs du 4 au 26 avril En plus de ses 25 attractions et spectacles, le parc proposera aux enfants de 3 à 12 ans de relever le challenge d’une course aux oeufs dans un jardin de Pâques reconstitué ! Autant de petits oeufs à trouver dans un temps limite ; tout cela au milieu de lapins, poules, fleurs et autres oeufs géants pour repartir avec des gourmandises en chocolat de la marque Revillon Chocolatier.   Profitez de notre offre spéciale pour nos membres : Tarif unique Adulte/Enfant Entrée Zone terrestre 21,50 euros au lieu de 27 euros Accès à l’Aqualibi : 5 euros au lieu de 8 euros sur présentation du billet d’entrée au tarif membre AP. Entrée gratuite pour les enfants de moins de 3 ans, avec accès limité aux attractions. Les billet...

  4. Offers

    CERN Multimedia

    Staff Association

    2014-01-01

      Bénéficiez du tarif spécial de 35 CHF/personne + 1 accompagnant au Théâtre de Carouge  en étant membre de l’Association du personnel.  Envoyez votre réservation par mail à smills@tcag.ch via votre adresse mail professionnelle. Indiquez la date de votre réservation, votre nom, prénom et numéro de téléphone. Une confirmation de réservation vous sera retournée par mail. La présentation de votre carte de membre sera demandée lors du retrait des billets.   De Molière – Mise en scène de Jean Liermier Argan, veuf, remarié avec Béline qui n’attend que la mort de son mari pour hériter, multiplie saignées, purges et autres ingestions de remèdes. Angélique, sa fille, vuet &a...

  5. OFFERS

    CERN Multimedia

    Staff Association

    2014-01-01

    Nouveau partenaire - Joy’s Club   Venez profiter des remises au Joy’s Club / Minigolf à Divonne-les-bains en tant que membre de l’Association ! Sur présentation de votre carte membre, vous bénéficierez d’une remise immédiate telle que : - Pour une partie adulte : 6 euros au lieu de 7 euros - Pour une partie enfant : 4 euros au lieu de 5 euros - Pour le mini Park : 6 euros au lieu de 7 euros Pour plus de renseignements, n’hésitez pas à demander au Secrétariat de l’Association ou à consulter notre site web: http://staff-association.web.cern.ch/fr/socioculturel/offres  

  6. Offers

    CERN Multimedia

    Staff Association

    2014-01-01

    12 % discount on football camps and courses for children from 3 to 13 years old, with bilingual coaches.   Now also courses during the autumn holidays! In order to get the discount you need to register online, then send a mail to info@intersoccer.ch with a scan of your membership card to recieve a refund of the discount.

  7. Offers

    CERN Multimedia

    Staff association

    2014-01-01

        Envie de soirée au théâtre, n’hésitez pas à bénéficier de nos offres pour nos membres ! Théâtre de Carouge : Réduction de 5 CHF pour tous les spectacles (30 CHF au lieu de 35 CHF) Le théâtre de Carouge vous présente sa nouvelle pièce : La double insconstance Du vedredi 21 mars au dimanche 6 avril 2014 De Marivaux Mise en scène de Philippe Mentha Audio-description le mardi 1er avril et le samedi 5 avril 2014 Il règne un doux mélange de révoltes et de séductions, de ruses et de fatalité dans cette Double Inconstance de Marivaux que met en scène Philippe Mentha, membre fondateur du Théâtre de Carouge et directeur depuis plus de trente ans du Théâtre Kléber-Méleau. L’allure d...

  8. Offers

    CERN Multimedia

    Staff Association

    2015-01-01

    Tickets "Zone terrestre": 21 € instead of 27 €. Access to Aqualibi: 5 € instead of 8 € on presentation of your SA member ticket. Free for children (3-11 years old) before 12 h 00. Free for children under 3, with limited access to the attractions. Car park free.

  9. Offers

    CERN Multimedia

    Staff Association

    2013-01-01

    Découvrez les plus belles tables de Suisse romande et de France voisine en bénéficiant des réductions suivantes sur chaque repas, pendant une année : 50 % pour 2 personnes, 40 % pour 3 personnes, 30 % pour 4 personnes, 20 % pour 5 à 6 personnes. Comment ça marche ? Faites votre choix parmi les 110 restaurants de votre région et réservez votre table pour 2, 3, 4, 5 ou 6 personnes. Présentez votre Passeport Gourmand dès votre arrivée. Savourez votre repas et profitez d’une réduction exceptionnelle sur votre addition (hors boissons, menu du jour et business lunch). Quels sont vos avantages ? Profitez du prix préférentiel pour les membres de l’association du CERN : – Passeport Gourmand Genève : CHF 75.- (au lieu de CHF 95.-) – Passeport Gourmand Ain/Savoie/Haute-Savoie : CHF 59.- (au lieu de CH...

  10. Offers

    CERN Multimedia

    Staff Association

    2012-01-01

    Si cette offre vous intéresse, merci d’envoyer un mail à mh.boulanger@comedie.ch avec le détail de votre réservation via votre adresse mail professionnelle. Le retrait des places se fait à la billetterie sur présentation de votre carte de membre de l’Association du personnel. Pour toute commande d’abonnement ou de carte de réduction par courrier ou internet, cocher le tarif collectif en indiquant le nom de l’entreprise et en joignant un justificatif nominatif. Pour tout renseignement, n’hésitez pas à contacter Marie-Hélène Boulanger : –  Tel. : 022 809 60 86 –  email : mh.boulanger@comedie.ch

  11. Offers

    CERN Multimedia

    Staff Association

    2013-01-01

    Découvrez les plus belles tables de Suisse romande et de France voisine en bénéficiant des réductions suivantes sur chaque repas, pendant une année : 50 % pour 2 personnes / 40 % pour 3 personnes / 30 % pour 4 personnes / 20 % pour 5 à 6 personnes. Comment ça marche ? Faites votre choix parmi les 110 restaurants de votre région et réservez votre table pour 2, 3, 4, 5 ou 6 personnes. Présentez votre Passeport Gourmand dès votre arrivée. Savourez votre repas et profitez d’une réduction exceptionnelle sur votre addition (hors boissons, menu du jour et business lunch). Quels sont vos avantages ? Profitez du prix préférentiel pour les membres de l’association du CERN : – Passeport Gourmand Genève : CHF 75.- (au lieu de CHF 95.-) – Passeport Gourmand Ain/Savoie/Haute-Savoie : CHF 59.- (au lieu de...

  12. Offers

    CERN Multimedia

    Staff Association

    2013-01-01

    Concert Scoop music tour sur le parc Walibi ! Vendredi 12 Juillet Vous trouverez la présentation de l’événement et les vidéos des artistes attendus avec leurs titres faisant vibrer les radios en ce moment sur le site internet http://www.walibi.com/rhone-alpes/fr-fr/evenements/scoop-music-tour. Le concert est gratuit et débute à la fermeture du parc avec une première partie surprise. Profitez donc d’une belle journée sur le parc et finissez en beauté avec le concert de l’été !

  13. Offers

    CERN Multimedia

    Staff Association

    2014-01-01

    To our members 5% discount on Fnac vouchers Vouchers of 50.-, 100.- et 200. - CHF Valid in the 4 shops in Switzerland without restriction on purchases. On sale in the office of Secretariat of the staff Association.

  14. Risk as analysis and risk as feelings: some thoughts about affect, reason, risk, and rationality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slovic, Paul; Finucane, Melissa L; Peters, Ellen; MacGregor, Donald G

    2004-04-01

    Modern theories in cognitive psychology and neuroscience indicate that there are two fundamental ways in which human beings comprehend risk. The "analytic system" uses algorithms and normative rules, such as probability calculus, formal logic, and risk assessment. It is relatively slow, effortful, and requires conscious control. The "experiential system" is intuitive, fast, mostly automatic, and not very accessible to conscious awareness. The experiential system enabled human beings to survive during their long period of evolution and remains today the most natural and most common way to respond to risk. It relies on images and associations, linked by experience to emotion and affect (a feeling that something is good or bad). This system represents risk as a feeling that tells us whether it is safe to walk down this dark street or drink this strange-smelling water. Proponents of formal risk analysis tend to view affective responses to risk as irrational. Current wisdom disputes this view. The rational and the experiential systems operate in parallel and each seems to depend on the other for guidance. Studies have demonstrated that analytic reasoning cannot be effective unless it is guided by emotion and affect. Rational decision making requires proper integration of both modes of thought. Both systems have their advantages, biases, and limitations. Now that we are beginning to understand the complex interplay between emotion and reason that is essential to rational behavior, the challenge before us is to think creatively about what this means for managing risk. On the one hand, how do we apply reason to temper the strong emotions engendered by some risk events? On the other hand, how do we infuse needed "doses of feeling" into circumstances where lack of experience may otherwise leave us too "coldly rational"? This article addresses these important questions.

  15. Multi-hazard risk analysis using the FP7 RASOR Platform

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koudogbo, Fifamè N.; Duro, Javier; Rossi, Lauro; Rudari, Roberto; Eddy, Andrew

    2014-10-01

    Climate change challenges our understanding of risk by modifying hazards and their interactions. Sudden increases in population and rapid urbanization are changing exposure to risk around the globe, making impacts harder to predict. Despite the availability of operational mapping products, there is no single tool to integrate diverse data and products across hazards, update exposure data quickly and make scenario-based predictions to support both short and long-term risk-related decisions. RASOR (Rapid Analysis and Spatialization Of Risk) will develop a platform to perform multi-hazard risk analysis for the full cycle of disaster management, including targeted support to critical infrastructure monitoring and climate change impact assessment. A scenario-driven query system simulates future scenarios based on existing or assumed conditions and compares them with historical scenarios. RASOR will thus offer a single work environment that generates new risk information across hazards, across data types (satellite EO, in-situ), across user communities (global, local, climate, civil protection, insurance, etc.) and across the world. Five case study areas are considered within the project, located in Haiti, Indonesia, Netherlands, Italy and Greece. Initially available over those demonstration areas, RASOR will ultimately offer global services to support in-depth risk assessment and full-cycle risk management.

  16. ANALYSIS OF ROMANIAN SMALL AND MEDIUM ENTERPRISES BANKRUPTCY RISK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kulcsar Edina

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Considering the fundamental role of small and medium enterprises in Romanian economy, this paper aims to quantify the level of their bankruptcy risk for 2009 and 2012 period, after debuting of financial crisis. The main reason of selecting this type of companies is that they represent the backbone of national economy. They have an indispensable role, because they offer jobs for great part of population and their contribution for GDP stimulation is considerable. In this paper it was applied two default risk models, namely the well known Altman’s Z-score model, based on five financial ratios and a bankruptcy predictor model developed by Teti et. al (2012 used firstly exclusively for Italian small and medium-sized enterprise for 2006-2009 period. The model proposed by Teti et. is based on the investigation of financially distressed and financially non-distressed Italian small and medium-sized enterprises during the financial crisis by using a discriminant analysis model. They conclude that there are four financial ratios, which characterized well the small and medium-sized enterprises bankruptcy risk. These variables are financial ratios, like: Debt/Total Assets, Return on Sales (ROS, EBIT/Interest Expenses and Working capital/EBIDTA. They consider that small and medium-sized enterprises require a particular approach in terms of bankruptcy risk analysis. In present study I try to compare the efficiency of traditional bankruptcy risk model with a small and medium-sized specific model. The necessary database for present analysis is ensured by simplified financial reports of 120 small and medium-sized enterprises registered in Bihor County. The selected enterprises are operating in manufacturing industry (21,67% and trading (78,33%. Present investigation has an important value in actual economic background, where the healthiness and sustainability of small and medium-sized enterprises is a great issue. The results of study shows contradictory

  17. Overcoming barriers to integrating economic analysis into risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffmann, Sandra

    2011-09-01

    Regulatory risk analysis is designed to provide decisionmakers with a clearer understanding of how policies are likely to affect risk. The systems that produce risk are biological, physical, and social and economic. As a result, risk analysis is an inherently interdisciplinary task. Yet in practice, risk analysis has been interdisciplinary in only limited ways. Risk analysis could provide more accurate assessments of risk if there were better integration of economics and other social sciences into risk assessment itself. This essay examines how discussions about risk analysis policy have influenced the roles of various disciplines in risk analysis. It explores ways in which integrated bio/physical-economic modeling could contribute to more accurate assessments of risk. It reviews examples of the kind of integrated economics-bio/physical modeling that could be used to enhance risk assessment. The essay ends with a discussion of institutional barriers to greater integration of economic modeling into risk assessment and provides suggestions on how these might be overcome. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  18. Economic analysis and management of climatic risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hourcade, J.C. (Centre International de Recherche sur l' Environnement et le Developpement, 92 - Montrouge (France))

    1994-01-01

    This paper aims at framing the collective decision problem in the face of climate change. It shows why it would be irrelevant to handle it in the form of a classical decision under uncertainty framework where a cost-benefit analysis is carried out including probability distribution on damages and risk aversion coefficients. A sequential approach to policy making is then proposed as an alternative in order to account for the inertia of socio-economic dynamics and the value of information. A simple model illustrates the gap between these two approaches; it shows the importance of combining the investments on climatic research, innovation policies and so-called 'no regret' short term decisions. It shows the fact that, even if they can be considered as quantitatively moderate, these potentials have a critical impact on long term viability of development; they embed a very high information value, lengthening the learning time vis-a-vis potentially major but controversial risks. (author). 21 refs., 3 figs.

  19. Risk oriented analysis of the SNR-300

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koeberlein, K.

    1982-01-01

    The Fact Finding Committee on 'Future Nuclear Power Policy' established by the 8th German Federal Parliament in its report of June 1980 among other items published the recommendation to commission a 'risk oriented analysis' of the SNR-300 in order to enable a pragmatic comparison to be made of the safety of the German prototype fast breeder reactor and a modern light water reactor (a Biblis B PWR). The Federal Minister for Research and Technology in August 1981 officially commissioned the Gesellschaft fuer Reaktorsicherheit (GRS) to conduct the study. Following a recommendation by the Fact Finding Committee, additional studies were performed also by a group of opponents of the breeder reactor. On the instigation of the group of opponents the delivery date of the study was altered several times and finally set at April 30, 1982. GRS submitted its report by this deadline. However, a joint report by the two groups could not be compiled, as had been requested by the client, because the contributions of the opponents were not made available until mid-May 1982 and then only as an 'interim report'. In summary, the GRS study indicates that the frequency and severity of major accidents is lower for the SNR-300 at the Kalkar site than for a PWR as covered in the German Nuclear Power Plant Risk Study. (orig.) [de

  20. Development of probabilistic risk analysis library

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soga, Shota; Kirimoto, Yukihiro; Kanda, Kenichi

    2015-01-01

    We developed a library that is designed to perform level 1 Probabilistic Risk Analysis using Binary Decision Diagram (BDD). In particular, our goal is to develop a library that will allow Japanese electric utilities to take the advantages of BDD that can solve Event Tree (ET) and Fault Tree (FT) models analytically. Using BDD, the library supports negation in FT which allows more flexible modeling of ET/FT. The library is written by C++ within an object-oriented framework using open source software. The library itself is a header-only library so that Japanese electric utilities can take advantages of its transparency to speed up development and to build their own software for their specific needs. In this report, the basic capabilities of the library is briefly described. In addition, several applications of the library are demonstrated including validation of MCS evaluation of PRA model and evaluation of corrective and preventive maintenance considering common cause failure. (author)

  1. Analysis of uncertainty in modeling perceived risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Melnyk, R.; Sandquist, G.M.

    2005-01-01

    Expanding on a mathematical model developed for quantifying and assessing perceived risks, the distribution functions, variances, and uncertainties associated with estimating the model parameters are quantified. The analytical model permits the identification and assignment of any number of quantifiable risk perception factors that can be incorporated within standard risk methodology. Those risk perception factors associated with major technical issues are modeled using lognormal probability density functions to span the potentially large uncertainty variations associated with these risk perceptions. The model quantifies the logic of public risk perception and provides an effective means for measuring and responding to perceived risks. (authors)

  2. Risk Analysis for Performance Improvement in a Romanian Pharmaceutical Company

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dana Corina Deselnicu

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents risk management analysis carried out to investigate the operations of a Romanian company dealing with the distribution of pharmaceutical products. The main risks challenging the company were identified, described and classified, providing a scientific base for further analysis. Then, the identified inherent risks were evaluated using tools as the risk index method and the risk matrix in order to emphasize their tolerance level. According to the results of the evaluation, risk mitigation strategies and measures were advanced for the management of the analysed risks. Relevant conclusions were drawn from the experience.

  3. ANALYSIS AND MANAGEMENT RISK IN INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS

    OpenAIRE

    Lăpăduşi Mihaela Loredana,; Căruntu Constantin

    2009-01-01

    The risk is one of the most controversial issues for all persons involved both in domestic and international world economic affairs. The need to analyze, understand and effectively manage risk is growing, the ultimate aim being to obtain a higher degree of successThe risk means exposure to an uncertain future, the opportunity to face danger or suffering a loss ( "Risk - possibility of loss or injury", Webster's, 1995) or the chance that things go wrong ( "Risk is the change that something wil...

  4. Insurability of Cyber Risk: An Empirical Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Biener, Christian; Eling, Martin; Wirfs, Jan Hendrik

    2015-01-01

    This paper discusses the adequacy of insurance for managing cyber risk. To this end, we extract 994 cases of cyber losses from an operational risk database and analyse their statistical properties. Based on the empirical results and recent literature, we investigate the insurability of cyber risk by systematically reviewing the set of criteria introduced by Berliner (1982). Our findings emphasise the distinct characteristics of cyber risks compared with other operational risks and bring to li...

  5. HANFORD SAFETY ANALYSIS & RISK ASSESSMENT HANDBOOK (SARAH)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    EVANS, C B

    2004-12-21

    The purpose of the Hanford Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) is to support the development of safety basis documentation for Hazard Category 2 and 3 (HC-2 and 3) U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear facilities to meet the requirements of 10 CFR 830, ''Nuclear Safety Management''. Subpart B, ''Safety Basis Requirements.'' Consistent with DOE-STD-3009-94, Change Notice 2, ''Preparation Guide for U.S. Department of Energy Nonreactor Nuclear Facility Documented Safety Analyses'' (STD-3009), and DOE-STD-3011-2002, ''Guidance for Preparation of Basis for Interim Operation (BIO) Documents'' (STD-3011), the Hanford SARAH describes methodology for performing a safety analysis leading to development of a Documented Safety Analysis (DSA) and derivation of Technical Safety Requirements (TSR), and provides the information necessary to ensure a consistently rigorous approach that meets DOE expectations. The DSA and TSR documents, together with the DOE-issued Safety Evaluation Report (SER), are the basic components of facility safety basis documentation. For HC-2 or 3 nuclear facilities in long-term surveillance and maintenance (S&M), for decommissioning activities, where source term has been eliminated to the point that only low-level, residual fixed contamination is present, or for environmental remediation activities outside of a facility structure, DOE-STD-1120-98, ''Integration of Environment, Safety, and Health into Facility Disposition Activities'' (STD-1120), may serve as the basis for the DSA. HC-2 and 3 environmental remediation sites also are subject to the hazard analysis methodologies of this standard.

  6. RACLOUDS - Model for Clouds Risk Analysis in the Information Assets Context

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SILVA, P. F.

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Cloud computing offers benefits in terms of availability and cost, but transfers the responsibility of information security management for the cloud service provider. Thus the consumer loses control over the security of their information and services. This factor has prevented the migration to cloud computing in many businesses. This paper proposes a model where the cloud consumer can perform risk analysis on providers before and after contracting the service. The proposed model establishes the responsibilities of three actors: Consumer, Provider and Security Labs. The inclusion of actor Security Labs provides more credibility to risk analysis making the results more consistent for the consumer.

  7. Receipt of a pediatric liver offer as the first offer reduces waitlist mortality for adult women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge, Jin; Gilroy, Richard; Lai, Jennifer C

    2018-03-31

    In liver transplantation, adults with small stature have a greater susceptibility to waitlist mortality. This may explain the persistent waitlist mortality disparity that exists for women. We hypothesized that women who receive early offers of pediatric donor livers have improved waitlist survival, and that preferentially offering these organs to women mitigates this sex-based disparity. We analyzed donor liver offers from 2010 to 2014. Adult candidates who received a first offer that ranked within the first three match run positions from the donors' perspective were classified based on gender and whether they received a pediatric versus adult offer. We used competing risks regression to associate first offer type and waitlist mortality. 8,101 waitlist candidates received a first offer that was ranked within the first three match run positions: 5.6% (293/5,202) men and 6.2% (179/2,899) women received a pediatric donor liver as their first offer. In multivariable analyses, compared to adult-first men, adult-first women (sHR1.33, 95%CI 1.17-1.51, p offer had a lower risk of waitlist mortality compared to those who receive adult offers. Our data provides a simple approach to mitigating the increased waitlist mortality experienced by women by incorporating donor and recipient size, as variables, into organ allocation. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. © 2018 by the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.

  8. 49 CFR 260.17 - Credit risk premium analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Credit risk premium analysis. 260.17 Section 260... Financial Assistance § 260.17 Credit risk premium analysis. (a) When Federal appropriations are not available to cover the total subsidy cost, the Administrator will determine the Credit Risk Premium...

  9. Integration of risk analysis, land use planning, and cost analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rajen, G.; Sanchez, G.

    1994-01-01

    The Department of Energy (DOE) and the Pueblo of San Ildefonso (Pueblo), which is a sovereign Indian tribe, have often been involved in adversarial situations regarding the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The Pueblo shares a common boundary with the LANL. This paper describes an on-going project that could alter the DOE and the Pueblo's relationship to one of cooperation; and unite the DOE and the Pueblo in a Pollution Prevention/Waste Minimization, and Integrated Risk Analysis and Land Use Planning effort

  10. Risk uncertainty analysis methods for NUREG-1150

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benjamin, A.S.; Boyd, G.J.

    1987-01-01

    Evaluation and display of risk uncertainties for NUREG-1150 constitute a principal focus of the Severe Accident Risk Rebaselining/Risk Reduction Program (SARRP). Some of the principal objectives of the uncertainty evaluation are: (1) to provide a quantitative estimate that reflects, for those areas considered, a credible and realistic range of uncertainty in risk; (2) to rank the various sources of uncertainty with respect to their importance for various measures of risk; and (3) to characterize the state of understanding of each aspect of the risk assessment for which major uncertainties exist. This paper describes the methods developed to fulfill these objectives

  11. Conceptual risk assessment framework for global change risk analysis SRP

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Elphinstone, CD

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available on two of the most important underlying factors supporting the ecosystem: productivity and hypoxia afiecting harmful algae blooms (HABs) and the rock lobsters. The risk regimes are a function of two time scales | a ‘high’ wind stress in early summer... is a condition which can lead to various negative impacts depending on the particular marine life, for instance rock lobsters stranding. The exact deflnitions of the two seasonal occurrences resulting in the risk event, ‘high’ wind stress in ‘early...

  12. Multiple Sclerosis Increases Fracture Risk: A Meta-Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guixian Dong

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. The association between multiple sclerosis (MS and fracture risk has been reported, but results of previous studies remain controversial and ambiguous. To assess the association between MS and fracture risk, a meta-analysis was performed. Method. Based on comprehensive searches of the PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science, we identified outcome data from all articles estimating the association between MS and fracture risk. The pooled risk ratios (RRs with 95% confidence intervals (CIs were calculated. Results. A significant association between MS and fracture risk was found. This result remained statistically significant when the adjusted RRs were combined. Subgroup analysis stratified by the site of fracture suggested significant associations between MS and tibia fracture risk, femur fracture risk, hip fracture risk, pelvis fracture risk, vertebrae fracture risk, and humerus fracture risk. In the subgroup analysis by gender, female MS patients had increased fracture risk. When stratified by history of drug use, use of antidepressants, hypnotics/anxiolytics, anticonvulsants, and glucocorticoids increased the risk of fracture risk in MS patients. Conclusions. This meta-analysis demonstrated that MS was significantly associated with fracture risk.

  13. Technical Overview of Ecological Risk Assessment - Analysis Phase: Exposure Characterization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Exposure Characterization is the second major component of the analysis phase of a risk assessment. For a pesticide risk assessment, the exposure characterization describes the potential or actual contact of a pesticide with a plant, animal, or media.

  14. Risk-based systems analysis for emerging technologies: Applications of a technology risk assessment model to public decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quadrel, M.J.; Fowler, K.M.; Cameron, R.; Treat, R.J.; McCormack, W.D.; Cruse, J.

    1995-01-01

    The risk-based systems analysis model was designed to establish funding priorities among competing technologies for tank waste remediation. The model addresses a gap in the Department of Energy's (DOE's) ''toolkit'' for establishing funding priorities among emerging technologies by providing disciplined risk and cost assessments of candidate technologies within the context of a complete remediation system. The model is comprised of a risk and cost assessment and a decision interface. The former assesses the potential reductions in risk and cost offered by new technology relative to the baseline risk and cost of an entire system. The latter places this critical information in context of other values articulated by decision makers and stakeholders in the DOE system. The risk assessment portion of the model is demonstrated for two candidate technologies for tank waste retrieval (arm-based mechanical retrieval -- the ''long reach arm'') and subsurface barriers (close-coupled chemical barriers). Relative changes from the base case in cost and risk are presented for these two technologies to illustrate how the model works. The model and associated software build on previous work performed for DOE's Office of Technology Development and the former Underground Storage Tank Integrated Demonstration, and complement a decision making tool presented at Waste Management 1994 for integrating technical judgements and non-technical (stakeholder) values when making technology funding decisions

  15. Structural reliability analysis applied to pipeline risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gardiner, M. [GL Industrial Services, Loughborough (United Kingdom); Mendes, Renato F.; Donato, Guilherme V.P. [PETROBRAS S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) of pipelines requires two main components to be provided. These are models of the consequences that follow from some loss of containment incident, and models for the likelihood of such incidents occurring. This paper describes how PETROBRAS have used Structural Reliability Analysis for the second of these, to provide pipeline- and location-specific predictions of failure frequency for a number of pipeline assets. This paper presents an approach to estimating failure rates for liquid and gas pipelines, using Structural Reliability Analysis (SRA) to analyze the credible basic mechanisms of failure such as corrosion and mechanical damage. SRA is a probabilistic limit state method: for a given failure mechanism it quantifies the uncertainty in parameters to mathematical models of the load-resistance state of a structure and then evaluates the probability of load exceeding resistance. SRA can be used to benefit the pipeline risk management process by optimizing in-line inspection schedules, and as part of the design process for new construction in pipeline rights of way that already contain multiple lines. A case study is presented to show how the SRA approach has recently been used on PETROBRAS pipelines and the benefits obtained from it. (author)

  16. A Roadmap of Risk Diagnostic Methods: Developing an Integrated View of Risk Identification and Analysis Techniques

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Williams, Ray; Ambrose, Kate; Bentrem, Laura

    2004-01-01

    ...), which is envisioned to be a comprehensive reference tool for risk identification and analysis (RI AND A) techniques. Program Managers (PMs) responsible for developing or acquiring software-intensive systems typically identify risks in different ways...

  17. Chemical risk evaluation, importance of the risk analysis framework uses: Latin America development restrictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carrillo, M.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation is about reach and results of the risk analysis in Venezuela, chemical dangers in food, human damage, injuries , technologies news in fodd development, toxicity, microbiological risk, technical recommendations

  18. Putting problem formulation at the forefront of GMO risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tepfer, Mark; Racovita, Monica; Craig, Wendy

    2013-01-01

    When applying risk assessment and the broader process of risk analysis to decisions regarding the dissemination of genetically modified organisms (GMOs), the process has a tendency to become remarkably complex. Further, as greater numbers of countries consider authorising the large-scale dissemination of GMOs, and as GMOs with more complex traits reach late stages of development, there has been increasing concern about the burden posed by the complexity of risk analysis. We present here an improved approach for GMO risk analysis that gives a central role to problem formulation. Further, the risk analysis strategy has been clarified and simplified in order to make rigorously scientific risk assessment and risk analysis more broadly accessible to diverse stakeholder groups.

  19. Enterprise Architecture-Based Risk and Security Modelling and Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonkers, Henk; Quartel, Dick; Kordy, Barbara; Ekstedt, Mathias; Seong Kim, Deng

    2016-01-01

    The growing complexity of organizations and the increasing number of sophisticated cyber attacks asks for a systematic and integral approach to Enterprise Risk and Security Management (ERSM). As enterprise architecture offers the necessary integral perspective, including the business and IT aspects

  20. Statistical models for competing risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sather, H.N.

    1976-08-01

    Research results on three new models for potential applications in competing risks problems. One section covers the basic statistical relationships underlying the subsequent competing risks model development. Another discusses the problem of comparing cause-specific risk structure by competing risks theory in two homogeneous populations, P1 and P2. Weibull models which allow more generality than the Berkson and Elveback models are studied for the effect of time on the hazard function. The use of concomitant information for modeling single-risk survival is extended to the multiple failure mode domain of competing risks. The model used to illustrate the use of this methodology is a life table model which has constant hazards within pre-designated intervals of the time scale. Two parametric models for bivariate dependent competing risks, which provide interesting alternatives, are proposed and examined

  1. Computational Aspects of Dam Risk Analysis: Findings and Challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ignacio Escuder-Bueno

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, risk analysis techniques have proved to be a useful tool to inform dam safety management. This paper summarizes the outcomes of three themes related to dam risk analysis discussed in the Benchmark Workshops organized by the International Commission on Large Dams Technical Committee on “Computational Aspects of Analysis and Design of Dams.” In the 2011 Benchmark Workshop, estimation of the probability of failure of a gravity dam for the sliding failure mode was discussed. Next, in 2013, the discussion focused on the computational challenges of the estimation of consequences in dam risk analysis. Finally, in 2015, the probability of sliding and overtopping in an embankment was analyzed. These Benchmark Workshops have allowed a complete review of numerical aspects for dam risk analysis, showing that risk analysis methods are a very useful tool to analyze the risk of dam systems, including downstream consequence assessments and the uncertainty of structural models.

  2. Seismic risk analysis in the German risk study phase B

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hasser, D.; Liemersdorf, J.

    1989-01-01

    The paper discusses some aspects of the seismic risk part of the German risk study for nuclear power plants, phase B. First simplified analyses in phase A of the study allowed a rough classification of structures and systems of the PWR reference plant according to their seismic risk contribution. These studies were extended in phase B using improved models for the dynamic analyses of buildings, structures and components as well as for the probabilistic analyses of seismic loading, failure probabilities and event trees. The methodology of deriving probabilistic seismic load descriptions is explained and compared with the methods in phase A of the study and in other studies. Some details of the linear and nonlinear dynamic analyses of structures are reported, in order to demonstrate the influence of different assumptions for material behavior and failure criteria. The probabilistic structural and event tree analyses are discussed with respect to the distribution assumptions, acceptable simplifications, special results for the PWR reference plant and, finally, the influence of model uncertainties

  3. Automating risk analysis of software design models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frydman, Maxime; Ruiz, Guifré; Heymann, Elisa; César, Eduardo; Miller, Barton P

    2014-01-01

    The growth of the internet and networked systems has exposed software to an increased amount of security threats. One of the responses from software developers to these threats is the introduction of security activities in the software development lifecycle. This paper describes an approach to reduce the need for costly human expertise to perform risk analysis in software, which is common in secure development methodologies, by automating threat modeling. Reducing the dependency on security experts aims at reducing the cost of secure development by allowing non-security-aware developers to apply secure development with little to no additional cost, making secure development more accessible. To automate threat modeling two data structures are introduced, identification trees and mitigation trees, to identify threats in software designs and advise mitigation techniques, while taking into account specification requirements and cost concerns. These are the components of our model for automated threat modeling, AutSEC. We validated AutSEC by implementing it in a tool based on data flow diagrams, from the Microsoft security development methodology, and applying it to VOMS, a grid middleware component, to evaluate our model's performance.

  4. Offering Incentives from the Outside

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Emmanuel, Nikolas G.

    2017-01-01

    Incentives offer a good deal of underexplored opportunities to help manage conflict by encouraging political bargaining. This study has two primary objectives. First, it furthers the discussion of how external third parties can help manage conflicts. Second, it offers a typology of the available ...

  5. Sustainable Offering Practices Through Stakeholders Engagement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bijay Prasad Kushwaha

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Sustainable development is achieved by satisfying the current ends without shrinking the existing means which can serve as needs for the society in the future. It has become global motive and responsibility of present community to utilize resources in an optimum way with minimum environmental damage. The objective of this paper is to study theoretical framework and practical approaches on sustainable offering practices through customer engagement. The study has also examined the opportunities and challenges of sustainable offering practices in India. The study is based on a previous study and secondary data has been used for analysis. The outcome revealed the process for successful sustainable offering practices in context of Indian consumers. The analysis has helped to understand different practices of sustainable offering through engaging stakeholders.

  6. RISK ANALYSIS IN INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY AND COMMUNICATION OUTSOURCING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edmir Parada Vasques Prado

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available This research aims at evaluating the risk analysis process in Information Technology and Communication (ICT outsourcing conducted by organizations of the private sector. The research is characterized by being a descriptive, quantitative and transversal type study, which was used the survey method. Data were collected through questionnaire, the sample is not random and we used a convenience sampling process. The research made contributions to understanding the risk analysis process in ICT services outsourcing, and identified statistically significant relationships between risk analysis, organization's size and its industry, and between risk analysis and diversity of outsourced services

  7. Risk-based decision analysis for groundwater operable units

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiaramonte, G.R.

    1995-01-01

    This document proposes a streamlined approach and methodology for performing risk assessment in support of interim remedial measure (IRM) decisions involving the remediation of contaminated groundwater on the Hanford Site. This methodology, referred to as ''risk-based decision analysis,'' also supports the specification of target cleanup volumes and provides a basis for design and operation of the groundwater remedies. The risk-based decision analysis can be completed within a short time frame and concisely documented. The risk-based decision analysis is more versatile than the qualitative risk assessment (QRA), because it not only supports the need for IRMs, but also provides criteria for defining the success of the IRMs and provides the risk-basis for decisions on final remedies. For these reasons, it is proposed that, for groundwater operable units, the risk-based decision analysis should replace the more elaborate, costly, and time-consuming QRA

  8. A comparative analysis of risk and quality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lynette, Jennifer Elyse

    2017-01-01

    Within the field of emergency management and fire response, risk and quality are conceptualized to some degree in every response effort. Quality is viewed as a relatively new concept within the field of emergency management and fire response. Whereas, within this same field the concept of risk is....... This understanding can serve to facilitate more informed and effective decision making that incorporates both risk and quality before, during, and after emergency events....... independently, decision making and judgement processes have the potential to be positively impacted by furthering research and developing a deeper understanding of these constructs. By understanding risk management principles and combining that with a quality systems approach, decision making can be improved......Within the field of emergency management and fire response, risk and quality are conceptualized to some degree in every response effort. Quality is viewed as a relatively new concept within the field of emergency management and fire response. Whereas, within this same field the concept of risk...

  9. First-Year Analysis of a New, Home-Based Palliative Care Program Offered Jointly by a Community Hospital and Local Visiting Nurse Service.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pouliot, Katherine; Weisse, Carol S; Pratt, David S; DiSorbo, Philip

    2017-03-01

    There is a growing need for home-based palliative care services, especially for seriously ill individuals who want to avoid hospitalizations and remain with their regular outside care providers. To evaluate the effectiveness of Care Choices, a new in-home palliative care program provided by the Visiting Nurse Services of Northeastern New York and Ellis Medicine's community hospital serving New York's Capital District. This prospective cohort study assessed patient outcomes over the course of 1 year for 123 patients (49 men and 74 women) with serious illnesses who were new enrollees in the program. Quality of life was assessed at baseline and after 1 month on service. Satisfaction with care was measured after 1 and 3 months on service. The number of emergency department visits and inpatient hospitalizations pre- and postenrollment was measured for all enrollees. Patients were highly satisfied (72.7%-100%) with their initial care and reported greater satisfaction ( P care service. An in-home palliative care program offered jointly through a visiting nurse service and community hospital may be a successful model for providing quality care that satisfies chronically ill patients' desire to remain at home and avoid hospital admissions.

  10. Risk analysis in transport and logistics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ene Andreea Bianca

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Globalization and production concentration have led to more efficient supply chain networks, which has led to the emergence of different types of risks. Although most companies have implemented special risk management programs, there may be events that can not be controlled by businesses, and unwanted consequences are not delayed.

  11. Applications of probabilistic risk analysis in nuclear criticality safety design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, J.K.

    1992-01-01

    Many documents have been prepared that try to define the scope of the criticality analysis and that suggest adding probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) to the deterministic safety analysis. The report of the US Department of Energy (DOE) AL 5481.1B suggested that an accident is credible if the occurrence probability is >1 x 10 -6 /yr. The draft DOE 5480 safety analysis report suggested that safety analyses should include the application of methods such as deterministic safety analysis, risk assessment, reliability engineering, common-cause failure analysis, human reliability analysis, and human factor safety analysis techniques. The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) report NRC SG830.110 suggested that major safety analysis methods should include but not be limited to risk assessment, reliability engineering, and human factor safety analysis. All of these suggestions have recommended including PRA in the traditional criticality analysis

  12. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

    2016-04-01

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  13. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

    2016-01-01

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  14. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy, E-mail: gasandylang@live.com; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Diponegoro University, Semarang (Indonesia); Kim, Seon Jin [Department of Mechanical & Automotive Engineering of Pukyong National University (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-04-19

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  15. Essays on Systemic Risk : An analysis from multiple perspectives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. Muns (Sander)

    2016-01-01

    markdownabstractThis thesis is about systemic risk in the financial sector. It considers several aspects of systemic risk. It is a building block for an analysis of the impact of systemic risk on the real economy. It appears that stocks in the financial industry show a strong interdependence

  16. Analysis and management of risks experienced in tunnel construction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cagatay Pamukcu

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In this study, first of all, the definitions of "risk", "risk analysis", "risk assessment" and "risk management" were made to avoid any confusions about these terms and significance of risk analysis and management in engineering projects was emphasized. Then, both qualitative and quantitative risk analysis techniques were mentioned and within the scope of the study, Event Tree Analysis method was selected in order to analyze the risks regarding TBM (Tunnel Boring Machine operations in tunnel construction. After all hazards that would be encountered during tunnel construction by TBM method had been investigated, those hazards were undergoing a Preliminary Hazard Analysis to sort out and prioritize the risks with high scores. When the risk scores were taken into consideration, it was seen that the hazards with high risk scores could be classified into 4 groups which are excavation + support induced accidents, accidents stemming from geologic conditions, auxiliary works, and project contract. According to these four classified groups of initiating events, Event Tree Analysis was conducted by taking into care 4 countermeasures apart from each other. Finally, the quantitative and qualitative consequences of Event Tree Analyses, which were undertaken for all initiating events, were investigated and interpreted together by making comparisons and referring to previous studies.

  17. Telomerase level increase is related to n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acid efficacy in first episode schizophrenia: Secondary outcome analysis of the OFFER randomized clinical trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pawełczyk, Tomasz; Grancow-Grabka, Marta; Trafalska, Elżbieta; Szemraj, Janusz; Żurner, Natalia; Pawełczyk, Agnieszka

    2018-04-20

    Schizophrenia is associated with shortening of the lifespan mainly due to cardiovascular events, cancer and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Both telomere attrition and decrease of telomerase levels were observed in schizophrenia. Polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) influence multiple biochemical mechanisms which are postulated to accelerate telomere shortening and limit the longevity of patients with schizophrenia. Intervention studies based on add-on therapy with n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (n-3 PUFA) in patients with schizophrenia did not assess the changes in telomerase levels. A randomized placebo-controlled trial named OFFER was designed to compare the efficacy of a 26-week intervention composed of either 2.2g/day of n-3 PUFA or olive oil placebo with regard to symptom severity in first-episode schizophrenia patients. The secondary outcome measure of the study was to describe the association between the clinical effect of n-3 PUFA and changes in telomerase levels. Seventy-one patients aged 16-35 were enrolled in the study and randomly assigned to the study arms. The Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) was used to assess the change in symptom severity. Telomerase levels of peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) were assessed at three points: at baseline and at weeks 8 and 26 of the intervention. A significantly greater increase in PBMC telomerase levels in the intervention group compared to placebo was observed (p<0.001). Changes in telomerase levels significantly and inversely correlated with improvement in depressive symptoms and severity of the illness. The efficacy of a six-month intervention with n-3 PUFA observed in first-episode schizophrenia may be related to an increase in telomerase levels. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Perception and acceptance of technological risk sources. Volume 2. Empirical analysis of risk perception and acceptance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Renn, O

    1981-01-01

    Volume 2 presents a comparative investigation of risk perception and acceptance. It contains the evaluations of the two experiments in social psychology and the analysis of two intensive inquiries concerning risk perception with a view to 12 different risk sources. The data of the two inquiries were acquired from a total of 200 interview partners in two cities in North-Rhine Westphalia.

  19. Assessment and uncertainty analysis of groundwater risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Fawen; Zhu, Jingzhao; Deng, Xiyuan; Zhao, Yong; Li, Shaofei

    2018-01-01

    Groundwater with relatively stable quantity and quality is commonly used by human being. However, as the over-mining of groundwater, problems such as groundwater funnel, land subsidence and salt water intrusion have emerged. In order to avoid further deterioration of hydrogeological problems in over-mining regions, it is necessary to conduct the assessment of groundwater risk. In this paper, risks of shallow and deep groundwater in the water intake area of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project in Tianjin, China, were evaluated. Firstly, two sets of four-level evaluation index system were constructed based on the different characteristics of shallow and deep groundwater. Secondly, based on the normalized factor values and the synthetic weights, the risk values of shallow and deep groundwater were calculated. Lastly, the uncertainty of groundwater risk assessment was analyzed by indicator kriging method. The results meet the decision maker's demand for risk information, and overcome previous risk assessment results expressed in the form of deterministic point estimations, which ignore the uncertainty of risk assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Method for environmental risk analysis (MIRA) revision 2007

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-04-01

    OLF's instruction manual for carrying out environmental risk analyses provides a united approach and a common framework for environmental risk assessments. This is based on the best information available. The manual implies standardizations of a series of parameters, input data and partial analyses that are included in the environmental risk analysis. Environmental risk analyses carried out according to the MIRA method will thus be comparable between fields and between companies. In this revision an update of the text in accordance with today's practice for environmental risk analyses and prevailing regulations is emphasized. Moreover, method adjustments for especially protected beach habitats have been introduced, as well as a general method for estimating environmental risk concerning fish. Emphasis has also been put on improving environmental risk analysis' possibilities to contribute to a better management of environmental risk in the companies (ml)

  1. Integrated risk analysis of global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shlyakhter, Alexander; Wilson, Richard; Valverde A, L.J. Jr.

    1995-01-01

    This paper discusses several factors that should be considered in integrated risk analyses of global climate change. We begin by describing how the problem of global climate change can be subdivided into largely independent parts that can be linked together in an analytically tractable fashion. Uncertainty plays a central role in integrated risk analyses of global climate change. Accordingly, we consider various aspects of uncertainty as they relate to the climate change problem. We also consider the impacts of these uncertainties on various risk management issues, such as sequential decision strategies, value of information, and problems of interregional and intergenerational equity. (author)

  2. Risk analysis with regard to nuclear engineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birkhofer, A.

    1980-01-01

    The author discusses the following questions: why are risk analyses elaborated. How are they carried out and which problems may arise. Completeness problem, data, human factors, common-mode-failures, accident simulation. To give an idea of the applicability of the results of risk analyses the author deals with systems comparison and system optimization, maintenance and testing strategies, incidents and the course of accidents that have to be considered in designing technical safety measures for nuclear power plants. Finally, the author tries to enter into questions that might arise due to the effects risk analyses may create in the general public. (HSCH) [de

  3. Methodology for risk analysis of nuclear installations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Senne Junior, Murillo; Jordao, Elizabete

    2002-01-01

    Both the licensing standards for general uses in nuclear facilities and the specific ones require a risk assessment during their licensing processes. The risk assessment is carried out through the estimation of both probability of the occurrence of the accident, and their magnitudes. This is a complex task because the great deal of potential hazardous events that can occur in nuclear facilities difficult the statement of the accident scenarios. There are also many available techniques to identify the potential accidents, estimate their probabilities, and evaluate their magnitudes. In this paper is presented a new methodology that systematizes the risk assessment process, and orders the accomplishment of their several steps. (author)

  4. EC Transmission Line Risk Identification and Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bigelow, Tim S [ORNL

    2012-04-01

    The purpose of this document is to assist in evaluating and planning for the cost, schedule, and technical project risks associated with the delivery and operation of the EC (Electron cyclotron) transmission line system. In general, the major risks that are anticipated to be encountered during the project delivery phase associated with the implementation of the Procurement Arrangement for the EC transmission line system are associated with: (1) Undefined or changing requirements (e.g., functional or regulatory requirements) (2) Underperformance of prototype, first unit, or production components during testing (3) Unavailability of qualified vendors for critical components Technical risks associated with the design and operation of the system are also identified.

  5. Risk Analysis for Unintentional Slide Deployment During Airline Operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayra, Eduardo S; Insua, David Ríos; Castellanos, María Eugenia; Larbi, Lydia

    2015-09-01

    We present a risk analysis undertaken to mitigate problems in relation to the unintended deployment of slides under normal operations within a commercial airline. This type of incident entails relevant costs for the airline industry. After assessing the likelihood and severity of its consequences, we conclude that such risks need to be managed. We then evaluate the effectiveness of various countermeasures, describing and justifying the chosen ones. We also discuss several issues faced when implementing and communicating the proposed measures, thus fully illustrating the risk analysis process. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  6. Assessment report on NRP sub-theme 'Risk Analysis'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Biesiot, W.; Hendrickx, L.; Olsthoorn, A.A.

    1995-01-01

    An overview and assessment are presented of the three research projects carried out under NRP funding that concern risk-related topics: (1) The risks of nonlinear climate changes, (2) Socio-economic and policy aspects of changes in incidence and intensity of extreme (weather) events, and (3) Characterizing the risks: a comparative analysis of the risks of global warming and of relevant policy strategies. 1 tab., 6 refs

  7. Approach for seismic risk analysis for CANDU plants in Korea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, B-S; Kim, T; Kang, S-K [Korea Power Engineering Co., Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Hong, S-Y; Roh, S-R [Korea Electric Power Corp., Taejon (Korea, Republic of). Research Centre

    1996-12-31

    A seismic risk analysis for CANDU type plants has never been performed. The study presented here suggested that the approach generally applied to LWR type plants could lead to unacceptable result, if directly applied to CANDU plants. This paper presents a modified approach for the seismic risk analysis of CANDU plants. (author). 5 refs., 2 tabs., 2 figs.

  8. Operational Risk Management A Practical Approach to Intelligent Data Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Kenett, Ron

    2010-01-01

    The book will introduce modern Operational Risk (OpR) Management and illustrates the various sources of OpR assessment and OpR mitigation. This book discusses how various data sources can be integrated and analyzed and how OpR is synergetic to other risk management activities such as Financial Risk Management and Internationalization. The topics will include state of the art technology such as semantic analysis, ontology engineering, data mining and statistical analysis.

  9. Living PRAs [probabilistic risk analysis] made easier with IRRAS [Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russell, K.D.; Sattison, M.B.; Rasmuson, D.M.

    1989-01-01

    The Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) is an integrated PRA software tool that gives the user the ability to create and analyze fault trees and accident sequences using an IBM-compatible microcomputer. This program provides functions that range from graphical fault tree and event tree construction to cut set generation and quantification. IRRAS contains all the capabilities and functions required to create, modify, reduce, and analyze event tree and fault tree models used in the analysis of complex systems and processes. IRRAS uses advanced graphic and analytical techniques to achieve the greatest possible realization of the potential of the microcomputer. When the needs of the user exceed this potential, IRRAS can call upon the power of the mainframe computer. The role of the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory if the IRRAS program is that of software developer and interface to the user community. Version 1.0 of the IRRAS program was released in February 1987 to prove the concept of performing this kind of analysis on microcomputers. This version contained many of the basic features needed for fault tree analysis and was received very well by the PRA community. Since the release of Version 1.0, many user comments and enhancements have been incorporated into the program providing a much more powerful and user-friendly system. This version is designated ''IRRAS 2.0''. Version 3.0 will contain all of the features required for efficient event tree and fault tree construction and analysis. 5 refs., 26 figs

  10. Big Data Risk Analysis for Rail Safety?

    OpenAIRE

    Van Gulijk, Coen; Hughes, Peter; Figueres-Esteban, Miguel; Dacre, Marcus; Harrison, Chris; HUD; RSSB

    2015-01-01

    Computer scientists believe that the enormous amounts of data in the internet will unchain a management revolution of uncanny proportions. Yet, to date, the potential benefit of this revolution is scantily investigated for safety and risk management. This paper gives a brief overview of a research programme that investigates how the new internet-driven data-revolution could benefit safety and risk management for railway safety in the UK. The paper gives a brief overview the current activities...

  11. The benefits of integrating cost-benefit analysis and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fisher, K.; Clarke-Whistler, K.

    1995-01-01

    It has increasingly been recognized that knowledge of risks in the absence of benefits and costs cannot dictate appropriate public policy choices. Recent evidence of this recognition includes the proposed EPA Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis Act of 1995, a number of legislative changes in Canada and the US, and the increasing demand for field studies combining measures of impacts, risks, costs and benefits. Failure to consider relative environmental and human health risks, benefits, and costs in making public policy decisions has resulted in allocating scarce resources away from areas offering the highest levels of risk reduction and improvements in health and safety. The authors discuss the implications of not taking costs and benefits into account in addressing environmental risks, drawing on examples from both Canada and the US. The authors also present the results of their recent field work demonstrating the advantages of considering costs and benefits in making public policy and site remediation decisions, including a study on the benefits and costs of prevention, remediation and monitoring techniques applied to groundwater contamination; the benefits and costs of banning the use of chlorine; and the benefits and costs of Canada's concept of disposing of high-level nuclear waste. The authors conclude that a properly conducted Cost-Benefit Analysis can provide critical input to a Risk Assessment and can ensure that risk management decisions are efficient, cost-effective and maximize improvement to environmental and human health

  12. Integrating Household Risk Mitigation Behavior in Flood Risk Analysis: An Agent-Based Model Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haer, Toon; Botzen, W J Wouter; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen C J H

    2017-10-01

    Recent studies showed that climate change and socioeconomic trends are expected to increase flood risks in many regions. However, in these studies, human behavior is commonly assumed to be constant, which neglects interaction and feedback loops between human and environmental systems. This neglect of human adaptation leads to a misrepresentation of flood risk. This article presents an agent-based model that incorporates human decision making in flood risk analysis. In particular, household investments in loss-reducing measures are examined under three economic decision models: (1) expected utility theory, which is the traditional economic model of rational agents; (2) prospect theory, which takes account of bounded rationality; and (3) a prospect theory model, which accounts for changing risk perceptions and social interactions through a process of Bayesian updating. We show that neglecting human behavior in flood risk assessment studies can result in a considerable misestimation of future flood risk, which is in our case study an overestimation of a factor two. Furthermore, we show how behavior models can support flood risk analysis under different behavioral assumptions, illustrating the need to include the dynamic adaptive human behavior of, for instance, households, insurers, and governments. The method presented here provides a solid basis for exploring human behavior and the resulting flood risk with respect to low-probability/high-impact risks. © 2016 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

  13. Project Portfolio Risk Identification and Analysis, Considering Project Risk Interactions and Using Bayesian Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Foroogh Ghasemi

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available An organization’s strategic objectives are accomplished through portfolios. However, the materialization of portfolio risks may affect a portfolio’s sustainable success and the achievement of those objectives. Moreover, project interdependencies and cause–effect relationships between risks create complexity for portfolio risk analysis. This paper presents a model using Bayesian network (BN methodology for modeling and analyzing portfolio risks. To develop this model, first, portfolio-level risks and risks caused by project interdependencies are identified. Then, based on their cause–effect relationships all portfolio risks are organized in a BN. Conditional probability distributions for this network are specified and the Bayesian networks method is used to estimate the probability of portfolio risk. This model was applied to a portfolio of a construction company located in Iran and proved effective in analyzing portfolio risk probability. Furthermore, the model provided valuable information for selecting a portfolio’s projects and making strategic decisions.

  14. Single-shell tank interim stabilization risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Basche, A.D.

    1998-01-01

    The purpose of the Single-Shell Tank (SST) Interim Stabilization Risk Analysis is to provide a cost and schedule risk analysis of HNF-2358, Rev. 1, Single-Shell Tank Interim Stabilization Project Plan (Project Plan) (Ross et al. 1998). The analysis compares the required cost profile by fiscal year (Section 4.2) and revised schedule completion date (Section 4.5) to the Project Plan. The analysis also evaluates the executability of the Project Plan and recommends a path forward for risk mitigation

  15. Through ARIPAR-GIS the quantified area risk analysis supports land-use planning activities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spadoni, G; Egidi, D; Contini, S

    2000-01-07

    The paper first summarises the main aspects of the ARIPAR methodology whose steps can be applied to quantify the impact on a territory of major accident risks due to processing, storing and transporting dangerous substances. Then the capabilities of the new decision support tool ARIPAR-GIS, implementing the mentioned procedure, are described, together with its main features and types of results. These are clearly shown through a short description of the updated ARIPAR study (reference year 1994), in which the impact of changes due to industrial and transportation dynamics on the Ravenna territory in Italy were evaluated. The brief explanation of how results have been used by local administrations offers the opportunity to discuss about advantages of the quantitative area risk analysis tool in supporting activities of risk management, risk control and land-use planning.

  16. Risk analysis of Finnish peacekeeping in Kosovo.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehtomäki, Kyösti; Pääkkönen, Rauno J; Rantanen, Jorma

    2005-04-01

    The research team interviewed over 90 Finnish battalion members in Kosovo, visited 22 units or posts, registered its observations, and made any necessary measurements. Key persons were asked to list the most important risks for occupational safety and health in their area of responsibility. Altogether, 106 accidents and 40 cases of disease resulted in compensation claims in 2000. The risks to the peacekeeping force were about twice those of the permanent staff of military trainees in Finland. Altogether, 21 accidents or cases of disease resulted in sick leave for at least 3 months after service. One permanent injury resulted from an explosion. Biological, chemical, and physical factors caused 8 to 9 occupational illnesses each. Traffic accidents, operational factors, and munitions and mines were evaluated to be the three most important risk factors, followed by occupational hygiene, living conditions (mold, fungi, dust), and general hygiene. Possible fatal risks, such as traffic accidents and munitions and explosives, received a high ranking in both the subjective and the objective evaluations. One permanent injury resulted from an explosion, and two traffic accidents involved a fatality, although not of a peacekeeper. The reduction of sports and military training accidents, risk-control programs, and, for some tasks, better personal protection is considered a development challenge for the near future.

  17. Analysis of the risk management decisionmaking processes and the decision support systems in the wildland fire agencies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patrick Withen

    2007-01-01

    This paper offers an analysis of the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats in the risk management process, decision support systems (DSSs), and other types of decisionmaking, including recognition primed decisionmaking, bricolage with the goal of improving DSSs and decisionmaking. DSSs may be thought of as any technology or knowledge that is used as an aid...

  18. Risk Analysis for the Different Consolidation Proposals

    CERN Document Server

    Strait, J

    2009-01-01

    In parallel with the repairs in sector 34, improvements are planned to a number of systems, to allow safe detection of faults similar to the one which caused the incident of 19 September, and to limit the damage should a similar incident nonetheless occur. These include improved bus and quench detection systems, improved pressure relief for the insulating and beam vacuum systems, and improved anchoring of the SSS to the tunnel floor. Not all of the planned mitigations, however, may be fully implemented before the restart of the LHC in 2009. I will review the potential benefits of partial or complete implementation of each of the planned improvements, individually or together with others, and conversely the potential risks (consequences) of delayed implementation. I will also review the risks that remain even after the planned consolidation is complete. Considering all proposals and the different risks, I will comment on what would be the best strategy for consolidation, and on the strategy for operations unde...

  19. The Total Risk Analysis of Large Dams under Flood Hazards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Chen

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Dams and reservoirs are useful systems in water conservancy projects; however, they also pose a high-risk potential for large downstream areas. Flood, as the driving force of dam overtopping, is the main cause of dam failure. Dam floods and their risks are of interest to researchers and managers. In hydraulic engineering, there is a growing tendency to evaluate dam flood risk based on statistical and probabilistic methods that are unsuitable for the situations with rare historical data or low flood probability, so a more reasonable dam flood risk analysis method with fewer application restrictions is needed. Therefore, different from previous studies, this study develops a flood risk analysis method for large dams based on the concept of total risk factor (TRF used initially in dam seismic risk analysis. The proposed method is not affected by the adequacy of historical data or the low probability of flood and is capable of analyzing the dam structure influence, the flood vulnerability of the dam site, and downstream risk as well as estimating the TRF of each dam and assigning corresponding risk classes to each dam. Application to large dams in the Dadu River Basin, Southwestern China, demonstrates that the proposed method provides quick risk estimation and comparison, which can help local management officials perform more detailed dam safety evaluations for useful risk management information.

  20. CULTURAL PROGRAMMES POSITIONING AS AN ELEMENT OF PUBLIC SERVICE TELEVISION MISSION IN NRK BASED ON ANALYSIS OF THE PROGRAMME OFFER IN 2009

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maja Chacinska

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available At the beginning of 2010 the culture editor of the Norwegian newspaper Aftenposten called the Norwegian television NRK “the best public service broadcaster in the world” and „the biggest and most important Norwegian cultural institution”. The article is an attempt to verify this statement through identifying the place of cultural programmes in NRK schedule in 2009. The author analyses how the cultural mission is described in current legal documents concerning Norwegian public service media mission. Furthermore the article is an attempt to identify how NRK defines cultural programmes and how it classifies them. In the second part of the article the author analyses the television programme of NRK1 and NRK2 in 2009, and presents the results of a more detailed analysis of selected three weeks of that year concerning the execution of its cultural mission.

  1. Risk Analysis for Environmental Health Triage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bogen, K T

    2005-01-01

    The Homeland Security Act mandates development of a national, risk-based system to support planning for, response to and recovery from emergency situations involving large-scale toxic exposures. To prepare for and manage consequences effectively, planners and responders need not only to identify zones of potentially elevated individual risk, but also to predict expected casualties. Emergency response support systems now define ''consequences'' by mapping areas in which toxic chemical concentrations do or may exceed Acute Exposure Guideline Levels (AEGLs) or similar guidelines. However, because AEGLs do not estimate expected risks, current unqualified claims that such maps support consequence management are misleading. Intentionally protective, AEGLs incorporate various safety/uncertainty factors depending on scope and quality of chemical-specific toxicity data. Some of these factors are irrelevant, and others need to be modified, whenever resource constraints or exposure-scenario complexities require responders to make critical trade-off (triage) decisions in order to minimize expected casualties. AEGL-exceedance zones cannot consistently be aggregated, compared, or used to calculate expected casualties, and so may seriously misguide emergency response triage decisions. Methods and tools well established and readily available to support environmental health protection are not yet developed for chemically related environmental health triage. Effective triage decisions involving chemical risks require a new assessment approach that focuses on best estimates of likely casualties, rather than on upper plausible bounds of individual risk. If risk-based consequence management is to become a reality, federal agencies tasked with supporting emergency response must actively coordinate to foster new methods that can support effective environmental health triage

  2. Risk analysis: divergent models and convergent interpretations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carnes, B. A.; Gavrilova, N.

    2001-01-01

    Material presented at a NASA-sponsored workshop on risk models for exposure conditions relevant to prolonged space flight are described in this paper. Analyses used mortality data from experiments conducted at Argonne National Laboratory on the long-term effects of external whole-body irradiation on B6CF1 mice by 60Co gamma rays and fission neutrons delivered as a single exposure or protracted over either 24 or 60 once-weekly exposures. The maximum dose considered was restricted to 1 Gy for neutrons and 10 Gy for gamma rays. Proportional hazard models were used to investigate the shape of the dose response at these lower doses for deaths caused by solid-tissue tumors and tumors of either connective or epithelial tissue origin. For protracted exposures, a significant mortality effect was detected at a neutron dose of 14 cGy and a gamma-ray dose of 3 Gy. For single exposures, radiation-induced mortality for neutrons also occurred within the range of 10-20 cGy, but dropped to 86 cGy for gamma rays. Plots of risk relative to control estimated for each observed dose gave a visual impression of nonlinearity for both neutrons and gamma rays. At least for solid-tissue tumors, male and female mortality was nearly identical for gamma-ray exposures, but mortality risks for females were higher than for males for neutron exposures. As expected, protracting the gamma-ray dose reduced mortality risks. Although curvature consistent with that observed visually could be detected by a model parameterized to detect curvature, a relative risk term containing only a simple term for total dose was usually sufficient to describe the dose response. Although detectable mortality for the three pathology end points considered typically occurred at the same level of dose, the highest risks were almost always associated with deaths caused by tumors of epithelial tissue origin.

  3. "Christ offered salvation, and not an easy life": How do port chaplains make sense of providing welfare for seafarers? An idiographic, phenomenological approach analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palmer, Tiffany; Murray, Esther

    2016-01-01

    The shipping industry has historically leaned towards a biomedical model of health when assessing, treating and caring for seafarers. In recent years there has been more concern for the mental health of seafarers in both the academic literature and the commercial world, however, the psychological and emotional well-being of seafarers still largely falls on the shoulders of the port chaplains. The aim of the study was to explore how port chaplains make sense of providing welfare for seafarers by taking an idiographic, phenomenological approach (IPA). Six male participants working as chaplains in United Kingdom ports took part in recorded face-to-face, semi-structured interviews covering three areas of questioning: role, identity and coping. Interviews were transcribed verbatim, and data analysed using interpretative phenomenological analysis. Three super-ordinate themes were identified from participants accounts; "We walk a very strange and middle path", "Exploited" and "Patching up". Rich data emerged in relation to the personal impact chaplains felt they made, which was facilitated by the historical role of the Church; this led to the second super-ordinate theme of how chaplains felt towards seafarers. Lastly, the analysis demonstrates how chaplains adapt to the limitations forced upon them to provide welfare, and a degree of acceptance at the injustice. Results were discussed in reference to theoretical models, including self-efficacy, empathic responding and the transactional model of stress and coping. Chaplains in ports perform their role autonomously with no input from healthcare professionals. Recommendations are made for a biopsychosocial model of health involving primary care, benefiting the health and well-being of seafarers and providing support and guidance for port chaplains at the frontline of welfare for seafarers.

  4. New offer for our members

    CERN Document Server

    Staff Association

    2018-01-01

    Evolution 2, your specialist for Outdoor Adventures Be it for a ski lesson, a parachute jump or for a mountain bike descent, come live an unforgettable experience with our outdoor specialists. Benefit from a 10 % discount on all activities: Offer is open to SA members and their family members living in the same household, upon presentation of the membership card. Offer available for all bookings made between 1 June 2018 and 30 May 2019. Offer available on all the Evoltion2 sites. A wide range of summer and winter activities. More information on http://evolution2.com/ Contact and reservation : +33 (0)4.50.02.63.35 management@evolution2.com

  5. Stress Analysis in Managing the Region’s Budget Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalya Pavlovna Pazdnikova

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The article addresses the implementation of budget risk management methods into the practices of governmental authorities. Drawing on the example of a particular region the article aims to demonstrate the possible methods of budget risk management. The authors refine the existing approaches to the notion of risk in its relation to budget system by introducing the notion of “budget risk.” Here the focus is the risk of default of budget spending in full which causes underfunding of territories and decrease in quality of life in the region. The authors have particularized the classification of budget risks and grouped together the criteria and factors which significantly influence the assessment and choice of method to manage budget risks. They hypothesize that budget risk is a financial risk. Therefore, the methods of financial risks management can be applied to budget risks management. The authors suggest a methodological approach to risk assessment based on correlation and regression analysis of program financing. The application of Kendall rank correlation coefficient allowed to assess the efficiency of budget spending on the implementation of state programs in Perm Krai. Two clusters — “Nature management and infrastructure” and “Public security” — turned out to be in the zone of high budget risk. The method of stress analysis, which consists in calculating Value at Risk (VaR, was applied to budget risks that in terms of probability are classified as critical. In order to assess risk as probability rate, the amount of Perm Krai deficit budget was calculated as induced variable from budget revenues and spending. The results demonstrate that contemporary management of public resources in the regions calls for the implementation of new management tools of higher quality and budget risk management is one of them.

  6. Modeling issues in nuclear plant fire risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siu, N.

    1989-01-01

    This paper discusses various issues associated with current models for analyzing the risk due to fires in nuclear power plants. Particular emphasis is placed on the fire growth and suppression models, these being unique to the fire portion of the overall risk analysis. Potentially significant modeling improvements are identified; also discussed are a variety of modeling issues where improvements will help the credibility of the analysis, without necessarily changing the computed risk significantly. The mechanistic modeling of fire initiation is identified as a particularly promising improvement for reducing the uncertainties in the predicted risk. 17 refs., 5 figs. 2 tabs

  7. LDC commodity risk analysis and recommendations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-01-01

    Under the current operation of the new competitive electricity market in Ontario, local distribution companies (LDCs) are required to pay the monthly invoice of the Independent Market Operator (IMO) before they collect from end-users for the consumption period covered by the invoice, with no clear guarantee that the recovery will occur. This situation creates a major cash flow problem and financial risk for LDCs and threatens the integrity and stability of the electricity market. This paper described 3 features of Ontario's competitive electricity market that create financial and commodity risk. The first problem is that there is no limit on how high prices can rise. Increases in wholesale commodity prices can result in a situation where the amount of the IMO's invoice is greater than the LDC's ability to pay at the time of receipt. Secondly, the LDC bears a 100 per cent payment obligation to the IMO administrator of the wholesale market. The third problem is that LDCs bear payment default risk from all consumers in the Ontario market, including electricity retailers. This paper presents some specific policy solutions that can protect the market from this threat. It was suggested that in order to protect the integrity of Ontario's electricity market during high prices, a policy must be drafted to address the commodity price financing risk (CPFR) issue. The policy must also define what happens if prices increase past the LDCs financing obligation limit. tabs., figs

  8. Risk Analysis and Security Countermeasure Selection

    CERN Document Server

    Norman, Thomas L

    2009-01-01

    Explains how to evaluate the appropriateness of security countermeasures, from a cost-effectiveness perspective. This title guides readers from basic principles to complex processes in a step-by-step fashion, evaluating DHS-approved risk assessment methods, including CARVER, API/NPRA, RAMCAP, and various Sandia methodologies

  9. Should continuous rather than single-injection interscalene block be routinely offered for major shoulder surgery? A meta-analysis of the analgesic and side-effects profiles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vorobeichik, L; Brull, R; Bowry, R; Laffey, J G; Abdallah, F W

    2018-04-01

    Major shoulder surgery is associated with moderate-to-severe pain, but consensus on the optimal analgesic approach is lacking. Continuous catheter-based interscalene block (CISB) prolongs the analgesic benefits of its single-injection counterpart (SISB), but concerns over CISB complications and difficulties in interpreting comparative evidence examining major and minor shoulder procedures simultaneously, despite their differences in postoperative pain, have limited CISB popularity. This meta-analysis evaluates the CISB analgesic role and complications compared with SISB for major shoulder surgery. We retrieved randomised controlled trials (RCTs) comparing the effects of CISB to SISB on analgesic outcomes and side-effects after major shoulder surgery. Postoperative opioid consumption at 24 h was designated as the primary outcome. Secondary outcomes included 24-48 h opioid consumption, postoperative rest and dynamic pain scores up to 72 h, time-to-first analgesic, recovery room and hospital stay durations, patient satisfaction, postoperative nausea and vomiting, respiratory function, and block-related complications. Data from 15 RCTs were pooled using random-effects modelling. Compared with SISB, CISB reduced 24- and 48-h oral morphine consumption by a weighted mean difference [95% confidence interval] of 50.9 mg [-81.6, -20.2], (P=0.001) and 44.7 mg [-80.9, -8.7], (Pshoulder surgery, without increasing side-effects, compared with SISB. The importance of CISB-related changes in respiratory indices is questionable. Copyright © 2017 British Journal of Anaesthesia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. How to Perform an Ethical Risk Analysis (eRA).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansson, Sven Ove

    2018-02-26

    Ethical analysis is often needed in the preparation of policy decisions on risk. A three-step method is proposed for performing an ethical risk analysis (eRA). In the first step, the people concerned are identified and categorized in terms of the distinct but compatible roles of being risk-exposed, a beneficiary, or a decisionmaker. In the second step, a more detailed classification of roles and role combinations is performed, and ethically problematic role combinations are identified. In the third step, further ethical deliberation takes place, with an emphasis on individual risk-benefit weighing, distributional analysis, rights analysis, and power analysis. Ethical issues pertaining to subsidiary risk roles, such as those of experts and journalists, are also treated in this phase. An eRA should supplement, not replace, a traditional risk analysis that puts emphasis on the probabilities and severities of undesirable events but does not cover ethical issues such as agency, interpersonal relationships, and justice. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

  11. Postgraduates courses offered to nursing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pedro Jorge Araujo

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Aim: To know the official masters that the Spanish Universities have offered during the academic course 2010/2011.Material and methods: Descriptive observational and transversal court study, in which it has analysed 170 university official masters and in which it has used a questionnaire with a total of 15 questions elaborated for this work.Results: 52 Spanish Universities of the 75 that there is have offered during the academic course 2010/2011 official masters that can realise for graduated in infirmary. By areas, the official masters more offered have been the ones of nutrition and alimentary security. 76,33% of the official masters have a length of 1 academic year. Almost the half of the official masters have an orientation researcher-professional and almost 40% researcher. 62,65% of the masters give of face-to-face way. In 52,1% of the official masters do not realise external practices and 86,2% has continuity with the doctorate.Conclusions: It has seen that it is necessary that expand the number of masters including other fields of study that contribute to a main specialisation of the professionals of the infirmary. An important percentage of official masters give in face-to-face modality, and there is very few offered on-line or to distance.

  12. Adaptive Failure Identification for Healthcare Risk Analysis and Its Application on E-Healthcare

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kuo-Chung Chu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available To satisfy the requirement for diverse risk preferences, we propose a generic risk priority number (GRPN function that assigns a risk weight to each parameter such that they represent individual organization/department/process preferences for the parameters. This research applies GRPN function-based model to differentiate the types of risk, and primary data are generated through simulation. We also conduct sensitivity analysis on correlation and regression to compare it with the traditional RPN (TRPN. The proposed model outperforms the TRPN model and provides a practical, effective, and adaptive method for risk evaluation. In particular, the defined GRPN function offers a new method to prioritize failure modes in failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA. The different risk preferences considered in the healthcare example show that the modified FMEA model can take into account the various risk factors and prioritize failure modes more accurately. In addition, the model also can apply to a generic e-healthcare service environment with a hierarchical architecture.

  13. Flood Risk Assessment Based On Security Deficit Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beck, J.; Metzger, R.; Hingray, B.; Musy, A.

    Risk is a human perception: a given risk may be considered as acceptable or unac- ceptable depending on the group that has to face that risk. Flood risk analysis of- ten estimates economic losses from damages, but neglects the question of accept- able/unacceptable risk. With input from land use managers, politicians and other stakeholders, risk assessment based on security deficit analysis determines objects with unacceptable risk and their degree of security deficit. Such a risk assessment methodology, initially developed by the Swiss federal authorities, is illustrated by its application on a reach of the Alzette River (Luxembourg) in the framework of the IRMA-SPONGE FRHYMAP project. Flood risk assessment always involves a flood hazard analysis, an exposed object vulnerability analysis, and an analysis combing the results of these two previous analyses. The flood hazard analysis was done with the quasi-2D hydraulic model FldPln to produce flood intensity maps. Flood intensity was determined by the water height and velocity. Object data for the vulnerability analysis, provided by the Luxembourg government, were classified according to their potential damage. Potential damage is expressed in terms of direct, human life and secondary losses. A thematic map was produced to show the object classification. Protection goals were then attributed to the object classes. Protection goals are assigned in terms of an acceptable flood intensity for a certain flood frequency. This is where input from land use managers and politicians comes into play. The perception of risk in the re- gion or country influences the protection goal assignment. Protection goals as used in Switzerland were used in this project. Thematic maps showing the protection goals of each object in the case study area for a given flood frequency were produced. Com- parison between an object's protection goal and the intensity of the flood that touched the object determine the acceptability of the risk and the

  14. On the validation of risk analysis-A commentary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosqvist, Tony

    2010-01-01

    Aven and Heide (2009) [1] provided interesting views on the reliability and validation of risk analysis. The four validation criteria presented are contrasted with modelling features related to the relative frequency-based and Bayesian approaches to risk analysis. In this commentary I would like to bring forth some issues on validation that partly confirm and partly suggest changes in the interpretation of the introduced validation criteria-especially, in the context of low probability-high consequence systems. The mental model of an expert in assessing probabilities is argued to be a key notion in understanding the validation of a risk analysis.

  15. Risk analysis methodologies for the transportation of radioactive materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Geffen, C.A.

    1983-05-01

    Different methodologies have evolved for consideration of each of the many steps required in performing a transportation risk analysis. Although there are techniques that attempt to consider the entire scope of the analysis in depth, most applications of risk assessment to the transportation of nuclear fuel cycle materials develop specific methodologies for only one or two parts of the analysis. The remaining steps are simplified for the analyst by narrowing the scope of the effort (such as evaluating risks for only one material, or a particular set of accident scenarios, or movement over a specific route); performing a qualitative rather than a quantitative analysis (probabilities may be simply ranked as high, medium or low, for instance); or assuming some generic, conservative conditions for potential release fractions and consequences. This paper presents a discussion of the history and present state-of-the-art of transportation risk analysis methodologies. Many reports in this area were reviewed as background for this presentation. The literature review, while not exhaustive, did result in a complete representation of the major methods used today in transportation risk analysis. These methodologies primarily include the use of severity categories based on historical accident data, the analysis of specifically assumed accident sequences for the transportation activity of interest, and the use of fault or event tree analysis. Although the focus of this work has generally been on potential impacts to public groups, some effort has been expended in the estimation of risks to occupational groups in transportation activities

  16. Risk analysis of complex hydrogen infrastructures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Markert, Frank; Marangon, Alessia; Carcassi, Marco

    2015-01-01

    Developing a future sustainable refuelling station network is the next important step to establish hydrogen as a fuel for vehicles and related services. Such stations will most likely be integrated in existing refuelling stations and result in multi-fuel storages with a variety of fuels being...... to improve the quality of biomass based fuels. Therefore, hydrogen supply and distribution chains will likely not only serve to fulfil the demands of refuelling, but may also be important for the wider electrical power and fuel industries. Based on an integrated hydrogen supply and distribution network...... assessment methodologies, and how functional models could support coherent risk and sustainability (Risk Assessment, Life Cycle Assessment /Life Cycle Costing) assessments, in order to find optimal solutions for the development of the infrastructure on a regional or national level....

  17. Analysis of power system collapse risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eleschova, Z.; Belan, A.; Cintula, B.; Smitkova, M.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper are analysed the initialization events with considering different scenarios and their impact on the power system transient stability. As an initialization event is considered a short circuit at various places of power line. In each scenario are considered protection failures (backup protection), circuit-breaker failures (breaker failure relay activation). The individual states are analysed and the power system collapse risk assessed based on the simulation experiments results (Authors)

  18. Bayesian-network-based safety risk analysis in construction projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Limao; Wu, Xianguo; Skibniewski, Miroslaw J.; Zhong, Jingbing; Lu, Yujie

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a systemic decision support approach for safety risk analysis under uncertainty in tunnel construction. Fuzzy Bayesian Networks (FBN) is used to investigate causal relationships between tunnel-induced damage and its influential variables based upon the risk/hazard mechanism analysis. Aiming to overcome limitations on the current probability estimation, an expert confidence indicator is proposed to ensure the reliability of the surveyed data for fuzzy probability assessment of basic risk factors. A detailed fuzzy-based inference procedure is developed, which has a capacity of implementing deductive reasoning, sensitivity analysis and abductive reasoning. The “3σ criterion” is adopted to calculate the characteristic values of a triangular fuzzy number in the probability fuzzification process, and the α-weighted valuation method is adopted for defuzzification. The construction safety analysis progress is extended to the entire life cycle of risk-prone events, including the pre-accident, during-construction continuous and post-accident control. A typical hazard concerning the tunnel leakage in the construction of Wuhan Yangtze Metro Tunnel in China is presented as a case study, in order to verify the applicability of the proposed approach. The results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed approach and its application potential. A comparison of advantages and disadvantages between FBN and fuzzy fault tree analysis (FFTA) as risk analysis tools is also conducted. The proposed approach can be used to provide guidelines for safety analysis and management in construction projects, and thus increase the likelihood of a successful project in a complex environment. - Highlights: • A systemic Bayesian network based approach for safety risk analysis is developed. • An expert confidence indicator for probability fuzzification is proposed. • Safety risk analysis progress is extended to entire life cycle of risk-prone events. • A typical

  19. Environmental risk assessment in GMO analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pirondini, Andrea; Marmiroli, Nelson

    2010-01-01

    Genetically modified or engineered organisms (GMOs, GEOs) are utilised in agriculture, expressing traits of interest, such as insect or herbicide resistance. Soybean, maize, cotton and oilseed rape are the GM crops with the largest acreage in the world. The distribution of GM acreage in the different countries is related with the different positions concerning labelling of GMO products: based on the principle of substantial equivalence, or rather based on the precautionary principle. The paper provides an overview on how the risks associated with release of GMO in the environments can be analysed and predicted, in view of a possible coexistence of GM and non-GM organisms in agriculture.Risk assessment procedures, both qualitative and quantitative, are compared in the context of application to GMOs considering also legislation requirements (Directive 2001/18/EC). Criteria and measurable properties to assess harm for human health and environmental safety are listed, and the possible consequences are evaluated in terms of significance.Finally, a mapping of the possible risks deriving from GMO release is reported, focusing on gene transfer to related species, horizontal gene transfer, direct and indirect effects on non target organisms, development of resistance in target organisms, and effects on biodiversity.

  20. Analysis of Alternatives for Risk Assessment Methodologies and Tools

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nachtigal, Noel M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). System Analytics; Fruetel, Julia A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Gleason, Nathaniel J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Helms, Jovana [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Imbro, Dennis Raymond [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Sumner, Matthew C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis

    2013-10-01

    The purpose of this document is to provide a basic overview and understanding of risk assessment methodologies and tools from the literature and to assess the suitability of these methodologies and tools for cyber risk assessment. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) performed this review in support of risk modeling activities performed for the Stakeholder Engagement and Cyber Infrastructure Resilience (SECIR) division of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Office of Cybersecurity and Communications (CS&C). The set of methodologies and tools covered in this document is not intended to be exhaustive; instead, it focuses on those that are commonly used in the risk assessment community. The classification of methodologies and tools was performed by a group of analysts with experience in risk analysis and cybersecurity, and the resulting analysis of alternatives has been tailored to address the needs of a cyber risk assessment.

  1. Work program analysis - defining the capability/risk plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hrinivich, W.A.

    2004-01-01

    Bruce Power has developed and implemented an analysis methodology (Work Program Analysis) to assess and address corporate business risk associated with work group capability. Work Program Analysis is proving to be an excellent tool for identifying and supporting key business decisions facing the line and senior management at Bruce Power. The following describes the methodology, its application and the results achieved. (author)

  2. Urban flooding and health risk analysis by use of quantitative microbial risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Signe Tanja

    D thesis is to identify the limitations and possibilities for optimising microbial risk assessments of urban flooding through more evidence-based solutions, including quantitative microbial data and hydrodynamic water quality models. The focus falls especially on the problem of data needs and the causes......, but also when wading through a flooded area. The results in this thesis have brought microbial risk assessments one step closer to more uniform and repeatable risk analysis by using actual and relevant measured data and hydrodynamic water quality models to estimate the risk from flooding caused...... are expected to increase in the future. To ensure public health during extreme rainfall, solutions are needed, but limited knowledge on microbial water quality, and related health risks, makes it difficult to implement microbial risk analysis as a part of the basis for decision making. The main aim of this Ph...

  3. Environmental risk analysis for nanomaterials: Review and evaluation of frameworks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grieger, Khara Deanne; Linkov, Igor; Hansen, Steffen Foss

    2012-01-01

    to occupational settings with minor environmental considerations, and most have not been thoroughly tested on a wide range of NM. Care should also be taken when selecting the most appropriate risk analysis strategy for a given risk context. Given this, we recommend a multi-faceted approach to assess...... the environmental risks of NM as well as increased applications and testing of the proposed frameworks for different NM....

  4. HVAC fault tree analysis for WIPP integrated risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirby, P.; Iacovino, J.

    1990-01-01

    In order to evaluate the public health risk from operation of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) due to potential radioactive releases, a probabilistic risk assessment of waste handling operations was conducted. One major aspect of this risk assessment involved fault tree analysis of the plant heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, which comprise the final barrier between waste handling operations and the environment. 1 refs., 1 tab

  5. WE-B-BRC-02: Risk Analysis and Incident Learning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fraass, B. [Cedars Sinai Medical Center (United States)

    2016-06-15

    Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. We therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation oncology

  6. WE-B-BRC-02: Risk Analysis and Incident Learning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fraass, B.

    2016-01-01

    Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. We therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation oncology

  7. Applying Multi-Criteria Analysis Methods for Fire Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pushkina Julia

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to prove the application of multi-criteria analysis methods for optimisation of fire risk identification and assessment process. The object of this research is fire risk and risk assessment. The subject of the research is studying the application of analytic hierarchy process for modelling and influence assessment of various fire risk factors. Results of research conducted by the authors can be used by insurance companies to perform the detailed assessment of fire risks on the object and to calculate a risk extra charge to an insurance premium; by the state supervisory institutions to determine the compliance of a condition of object with requirements of regulations; by real state owners and investors to carry out actions for decrease in degree of fire risks and minimisation of possible losses.

  8. DYNAMIC HYBRIDS UNDER SOLVENCY II: RISK ANALYSIS AND MODIFICATION POSSIBILITIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Maier

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we investigate the new and standardized European system of supervisory called Solvency II. In essence, asymmetric distribution of information between policyholder and insurer triggered this new regulation which aims at better protecting policyholders. Its three-pillar model is about to challenge both, insurers as well as policyholders. The first pillar includes quantitative aspects, the second pillar contains qualitative aspects and the third pillar comprises market transparency and reporting obligations. Underwriting risks, the default risk of a bank and market risks can be identified for the dynamic hybrid. Solvency II covers all these risks in the first pillar and insurers shall deposit sufficient risk-bearing capital. In our analysis, we first identify the dynamic hybrid specific risks under the Solvency II regime und then develop product modifications to reduce this risk.

  9. Risk and safety analysis of nuclear systems

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lee, John C; McCormick, Norman J

    2011-01-01

    ...), and failure modes of systems. All of this material is general enough that it could be used in non-nuclear applications, although there is an emphasis placed on the analysis of nuclear systems...

  10. The development of a 3D risk analysis method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    I, Yet-Pole; Cheng, Te-Lung

    2008-05-01

    Much attention has been paid to the quantitative risk analysis (QRA) research in recent years due to more and more severe disasters that have happened in the process industries. Owing to its calculation complexity, very few software, such as SAFETI, can really make the risk presentation meet the practice requirements. However, the traditional risk presentation method, like the individual risk contour in SAFETI, is mainly based on the consequence analysis results of dispersion modeling, which usually assumes that the vapor cloud disperses over a constant ground roughness on a flat terrain with no obstructions and concentration fluctuations, which is quite different from the real situations of a chemical process plant. All these models usually over-predict the hazardous regions in order to maintain their conservativeness, which also increases the uncertainty of the simulation results. On the other hand, a more rigorous model such as the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model can resolve the previous limitations; however, it cannot resolve the complexity of risk calculations. In this research, a conceptual three-dimensional (3D) risk calculation method was proposed via the combination of results of a series of CFD simulations with some post-processing procedures to obtain the 3D individual risk iso-surfaces. It is believed that such technique will not only be limited to risk analysis at ground level, but also be extended into aerial, submarine, or space risk analyses in the near future.

  11. Assessment of major nuclear technologies with decision and risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Winterfeldt, D. von

    1995-01-01

    Selecting technologies for major nuclear programs involves several complexities, including multiple stakeholders, multiple conflicting objectives, uncertainties, and risk. In addition, the programmatic risks related to the schedule, cost, and performance of these technologies often become major issues in the selection process. This paper describes a decision analysis approach for addressing these complexities in a logical manner

  12. The JPL Cost Risk Analysis Approach that Incorporates Engineering Realism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harmon, Corey C.; Warfield, Keith R.; Rosenberg, Leigh S.

    2006-01-01

    This paper discusses the JPL Cost Engineering Group (CEG) cost risk analysis approach that accounts for all three types of cost risk. It will also describe the evaluation of historical cost data upon which this method is based. This investigation is essential in developing a method that is rooted in engineering realism and produces credible, dependable results to aid decision makers.

  13. The use of current risk analysis tools evaluated towards preventing external domino accidents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reniers, Genserik L L; Dullaert, W.; Ale, B. J.M.; Soudan, K.

    Risk analysis is an essential tool for company safety policy. Risk analysis consists of identifying and evaluating all possible risks. The efficiency of risk analysis tools depends on the rigueur of identifying and evaluating all possible risks. The diversity in risk analysis procedures is such that

  14. Simulation Approach to Mission Risk and Reliability Analysis, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — It is proposed to develop and demonstrate an integrated total-system risk and reliability analysis approach that is based on dynamic, probabilistic simulation. This...

  15. Risk and train control : a framework for analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2001-01-01

    This report develops and demonstrates a framework for examining the effects of various train control strategies on some of the major risks of railroad operations. Analysis of hypothetical 1200-mile corridor identified the main factors that increase r...

  16. Vulnerability and Risk Analysis Program: Overview of Assessment Methodology

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2001-01-01

    .... Over the last three years, a team of national laboratory experts, working in partnership with the energy industry, has successfully applied the methodology as part of OCIP's Vulnerability and Risk Analysis Program (VRAP...

  17. Risk and Interdependencies in Critical Infrastructures A Guideline for Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Utne, Ingrid; Vatn, Jørn

    2012-01-01

    Today’s society is completely dependent on critical networks such as  water supply, sewage, electricity, ICT and transportation. Risk and vulnerability analyses are needed to grasp the impact of threats and hazards. However, these become quite complex as there are strong interdependencies both within and between infrastructure systems. Risk and Interdependencies in Critical Infrastructures: A  guideline for analysis provides methods for analyzing risks and interdependencies of critical infrastructures.  A number of analysis approaches are described and are adapted to each of these infrastructures. Various approaches are also revised, and all are supported by several examples and illustrations. Particular emphasis is given to the analysis of various interdependencies that often exist between the infrastructures.  Risk and Interdependencies in Critical Infrastructures: A  guideline for analysis provides a good tool to identify the hazards that are threatening your infrastructures, and will enhance the un...

  18. Spent fuel pool risk analysis for the Dukovany NPP

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hust' ak, S.; Jaros, M.; Kubicek, J. [UJV Rez, a.s., Husinec-Rez (Czech Republic)

    2013-07-01

    UJV Rez, a.s. maintains a Living Probabilistic Safety Assessment (Living PSA) program for Dukovany Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) in the Czech Republic. This project has been established as a framework for activities related to risk assessment and to support for risk-informed decision making at this plant. The most extensively used PSA application at Dukovany NPP is risk monitoring of instantaneous (point-in-time) risk during plant operation, especially for the purpose of configuration risk management during plant scheduled outages to avoid risk significant configurations. The scope of PSA for Dukovany NPP includes also determination of a risk contribution from spent fuel pool (SFP) operation to provide recommendations for the prevention and mitigation of SFP accidents and to be applicable for configuration risk management. This paper describes the analysis of internal initiating events (IEs) in PSA for Dukovany NPP, which can contribute to the risk from SFP operation. The analysis of those IEs was done more thoroughly in the PSA for Dukovany NPP in order to be used in instantaneous risk monitoring. (orig.)

  19. Common pitfalls in statistical analysis: Absolute risk reduction, relative risk reduction, and number needed to treat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranganathan, Priya; Pramesh, C. S.; Aggarwal, Rakesh

    2016-01-01

    In the previous article in this series on common pitfalls in statistical analysis, we looked at the difference between risk and odds. Risk, which refers to the probability of occurrence of an event or outcome, can be defined in absolute or relative terms. Understanding what these measures represent is essential for the accurate interpretation of study results. PMID:26952180

  20. The offerings from the Hyperboreans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruck, C A

    1983-08-01

    The ancient Greeks believed that the fruits of agriculture could be harvested only if one first appeased the spirit of the primitive avatars from which the edible crop had been evolved over the centuries through hybridization and cultivation. On occasion, this appeasement was secured through the sacrifice of a human victim, a person who for various reasons could be considered to represent a similar primitivism. By the classical age, this extreme form of sacrificial appeasement appears to have been reserved for times of unusual crisis, such as pestilence or natural disaster, for at such times, the resurgent forces of primitivism seemed to threaten the entire civilization with regression back to its wilder origins. Other forms of appeasement were ordinarily substituted for the actual offering of a human victim. Amongst these was the enactment of puberty rites, for the natural growth and maturation of an individual could be thought to symbolize this same evolutionary process. Each infant is born as a wild creature who must develop into a socialized adult through the metaphoric death of its former self as it assumes the responsibilities of civilized life in crossing the threshold to sexual maturity. A similar symbolic victim was customarily represented by the offering of first fruits. A portion of the cultivated crop was prematurely cut and consecrated to redeem and release the ripening harvest from the dangerous contamination with the spirits of its pre-agricultural precedents. On the island of Delos, a special version of this consecration was performed. Each year, the various Greek cities would send a sheaf of unripened grain to the sanctuary of the god Apollo and his twin sister Artemis. Amongst these annual offerings, there was one that was supposed to have originated from the Hyperboreans, a mythical people who were thought to live in the original homeland of the two gods. This special Hyperborean offering differed from the others, for it was said to contain a

  1. H15-42: CFD analysis for risk analysis in urban environments - Tilburg city case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hulsbosch-Dam, C.; Mack, A.; Ratingen, S. van; Rosmuller, N.; Trijssenaar, I.

    2013-01-01

    For risk analysis studies, relatively simple dispersion models are generally applied, such as Gaussian dispersion and dense gas dispersion models. For rail transport risk analyses in the Netherlands, fixed consequence distances are applied for various standard scenarios of hazardous materials

  2. Instability risk analysis and risk assessment system establishment of underground storage caverns in bedded salt rock

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jing, Wenjun; Zhao, Yan

    2018-02-01

    Stability is an important part of geotechnical engineering research. The operating experiences of underground storage caverns in salt rock all around the world show that the stability of the caverns is the key problem of safe operation. Currently, the combination of theoretical analysis and numerical simulation are the mainly adopts method of reserve stability analysis. This paper introduces the concept of risk into the stability analysis of underground geotechnical structure, and studies the instability of underground storage cavern in salt rock from the perspective of risk analysis. Firstly, the definition and classification of cavern instability risk is proposed, and the damage mechanism is analyzed from the mechanical angle. Then the main stability evaluating indicators of cavern instability risk are proposed, and an evaluation method of cavern instability risk is put forward. Finally, the established cavern instability risk assessment system is applied to the analysis and prediction of cavern instability risk after 30 years of operation in a proposed storage cavern group in the Huai’an salt mine. This research can provide a useful theoretical base for the safe operation and management of underground storage caverns in salt rock.

  3. Environmental risk analysis of hazardous material rail transportation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saat, Mohd Rapik; Werth, Charles J.; Schaeffer, David; Yoon, Hongkyu; Barkan, Christopher P.L.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Comprehensive, nationwide risk assessment of hazardous material rail transportation. • Application of a novel environmental (i.e. soil and groundwater) consequence model. • Cleanup cost and total shipment distance are the most significant risk factors. • Annual risk varies from $20,000 to $560,000 for different products. • Provides information on the risk cost associated with specific product shipments. -- Abstract: An important aspect of railroad environmental risk management involves tank car transportation of hazardous materials. This paper describes a quantitative, environmental risk analysis of rail transportation of a group of light, non-aqueous-phase liquid (LNAPL) chemicals commonly transported by rail in North America. The Hazardous Materials Transportation Environmental Consequence Model (HMTECM) was used in conjunction with a geographic information system (GIS) analysis of environmental characteristics to develop probabilistic estimates of exposure to different spill scenarios along the North American rail network. The risk analysis incorporated the estimated clean-up cost developed using the HMTECM, route-specific probability distributions of soil type and depth to groundwater, annual traffic volume, railcar accident rate, and tank car safety features, to estimate the nationwide annual risk of transporting each product. The annual risk per car-mile (car-km) and per ton-mile (ton-km) was also calculated to enable comparison between chemicals and to provide information on the risk cost associated with shipments of these products. The analysis and the methodology provide a quantitative approach that will enable more effective management of the environmental risk of transporting hazardous materials

  4. Environmental risk analysis of hazardous material rail transportation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saat, Mohd Rapik, E-mail: mohdsaat@illinois.edu [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1243 Newmark Civil Engineering Laboratory, 205 North Mathews Avenue, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); Werth, Charles J.; Schaeffer, David [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1243 Newmark Civil Engineering Laboratory, 205 North Mathews Avenue, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); Yoon, Hongkyu [Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM 87123 (United States); Barkan, Christopher P.L. [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1243 Newmark Civil Engineering Laboratory, 205 North Mathews Avenue, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States)

    2014-01-15

    Highlights: • Comprehensive, nationwide risk assessment of hazardous material rail transportation. • Application of a novel environmental (i.e. soil and groundwater) consequence model. • Cleanup cost and total shipment distance are the most significant risk factors. • Annual risk varies from $20,000 to $560,000 for different products. • Provides information on the risk cost associated with specific product shipments. -- Abstract: An important aspect of railroad environmental risk management involves tank car transportation of hazardous materials. This paper describes a quantitative, environmental risk analysis of rail transportation of a group of light, non-aqueous-phase liquid (LNAPL) chemicals commonly transported by rail in North America. The Hazardous Materials Transportation Environmental Consequence Model (HMTECM) was used in conjunction with a geographic information system (GIS) analysis of environmental characteristics to develop probabilistic estimates of exposure to different spill scenarios along the North American rail network. The risk analysis incorporated the estimated clean-up cost developed using the HMTECM, route-specific probability distributions of soil type and depth to groundwater, annual traffic volume, railcar accident rate, and tank car safety features, to estimate the nationwide annual risk of transporting each product. The annual risk per car-mile (car-km) and per ton-mile (ton-km) was also calculated to enable comparison between chemicals and to provide information on the risk cost associated with shipments of these products. The analysis and the methodology provide a quantitative approach that will enable more effective management of the environmental risk of transporting hazardous materials.

  5. GEOSPATIAL ANALYSIS OF URBAN LAND USE PATTERN ANALYSIS FOR HEMORRHAGIC FEVER RISK – A REVIEW

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. N. Izzah

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Human modification of the natural environment continues to create habitats in which vectors of a wide variety of human and animal pathogens (such as Plasmodium, Aedes aegypti, Arenavirus etc. thrive if unabated with an enormous potential to negatively affect public health. Typical examples of these modifications include impoundments, dams, irrigation systems, landfills and so on that provide enabled environment for the transmission of Hemorrhagic fever such as malaria, dengue, avian flu, Lassa fever etc. Furthermore, contemporary urban dwelling pattern appears to be associated with the prevalence of Hemorrhagic diseases in recent years. These observations are not peculiar to the developing world, as urban expansion also contributes significantly to mosquito and other vectors habitats. This habitats offer breeding ground to some vector virus populations. The key to disease control is developing an understanding of the contribution of human landscape modification to vector-borne pathogen transmission and how a balance may be achieved between human development, public health, and responsible urban land use. A comprehensive review of urban land use Pattern Analysis for Hemorrhagic fever risk has been conducted in this paper. The study found that most of the available literatures dwell more on the impact of urban land use on malaria and dengue fevers; however, studies are yet to be found discussing the implications of urban land use on the risk of Ebola, Lassa and other non-mosquito borne VHFs. A relational model for investigating the influence of urban land use change pattern on the risk of Hemorrhagic fever has been proposed in this study.

  6. Probabilistic risk analysis of Angra-1 reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spivak, R.C.; Collussi, I.; Silva, M.C. da; Onusic Junior, J.

    1986-01-01

    The first phase of probabilistic study for safety analysis and operational analysis of Angra-1 reactor is presented. The study objectives and uses are: to support decisions about safety problems; to identify operational and/or project failures; to amplify operator qualification tests to include accidents in addition to project base; to provide informations to be used in development and/or review of operation procedures in emergency, test and maintenance procedures; to obtain experience for data collection about abnormal accurences; utilization of study results for training operators; and training of evaluation and reliability techniques for the personnel of CNEN and FURNAS. (M.C.K.) [pt

  7. ANALYSIS OF RISK FACTORS ECTOPIC PREGNANCY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Budi Santoso

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Ectopic pregnancy is a pregnancy with extrauterine implantation. This situation is gynecologic emergency that contributes to maternal mortality. Therefore, early recognition, based on identification of the causes of ectopic pregnancy risk factors, is needed. Methods: The design descriptive observational. The samples were pregnant women who had ectopic pregnancy at Maternity Room, Emergency Unit, Dr. Soetomo Hospital, Surabaya, from 1 July 2008 to 1 July 2010. Sampling technique was total sampling using medical records. Result: Patients with ectopic pregnancy were 99 individuals out of 2090 pregnant women who searched for treatment in Dr. Soetomo Hospital. However, only 29 patients were accompanied with traceable risk factors. Discussion:. Most ectopic pregnancies were in the age group of 26-30 years, comprising 32 patients (32.32%, then in age groups of 31–35 years as many as 25 patients (25.25%, 18 patients in age group 21–25 years (18.18%, 17 patients in age group 36–40 years (17.17%, 4 patients in age group 41 years and more (4.04%, and the least was in age group of 16–20 years with 3 patients (3.03%. A total of 12 patients with ectopic pregnancy (41.38% had experience of abortion and 6 patients (20.69% each in groups of patients with ectopic pregnancy who used family planning, in those who used family planning as well as ectopic pregnancy patients with history of surgery. There were 2 patients (6.90% of the group of patients ectopic pregnancy who had history of surgery and history of abortion. The incidence rate of ectopic pregnancy was 4.73%, mostly in the second gravidity (34.34%, whereas the nulliparous have the highest prevalence of 39.39%. Acquired risk factors, i.e. history of operations was 10.34%, patients with family planning 20.69%, patients with history of abortion 41.38%, patients with history of abortion and operation 6.90% patients with family and history of abortion was 20.69%.

  8. Quantitative risk analysis in two pipelines operated by TRANSPETRO

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia, Claudio B. [PETROBRAS Transporte S/A (TRANSPETRO), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Pinho, Edson [Universidade Federal Rural do Rio de Janeiro (UFRRJ), Seropedica, RJ (Brazil); Bittencourt, Euclides [Centro Universitario FIB, Salvador , BA (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    Transportation risk analysis techniques were used to study two pipelines operated by TRANSPETRO. The Pipeline A is for the simultaneous transportation of diesel, gasoline and LPG and comprises three parts, all of them crossing rural areas. The Pipeline B is for oil transportation and one of its ends is located in an area of a high density population. Both pipelines had their risk studied using the PHAST RISK{sup R} software and the individual risk measures, the only considered measures for license purposes for this type of studies, presented level far below the maximum tolerable levels considered. (author)

  9. THE ANALYSIS OF RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS WITHIN MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ROMANESCU MARCEL LAURENTIU

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available This article highlights the risk analysis within management, focusing on how a company could practicaly integrate the risks management in the existing leading process. Subsequently, it is exemplified the way of manage risk effectively, which gives numerous advantages to all firms, including improving their decision-making process. All these lead to the conclusion that the degree of risk specific to companies is very high, but if managers make the best decisions then it can diminish it and all business activitiy and its income are not influenced by factors that could disturb in a negative way .

  10. Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon; Kelly, Dana; Smith, Curtis; Vedros, Kurt; Galyean, William

    2009-01-01

    This document, Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis, is intended to provide guidelines for the collection and evaluation of risk and reliability-related data. It is aimed at scientists and engineers familiar with risk and reliability methods and provides a hands-on approach to the investigation and application of a variety of risk and reliability data assessment methods, tools, and techniques. This document provides both: A broad perspective on data analysis collection and evaluation issues. A narrow focus on the methods to implement a comprehensive information repository. The topics addressed herein cover the fundamentals of how data and information are to be used in risk and reliability analysis models and their potential role in decision making. Understanding these topics is essential to attaining a risk informed decision making environment that is being sought by NASA requirements and procedures such as 8000.4 (Agency Risk Management Procedural Requirements), NPR 8705.05 (Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures for NASA Programs and Projects), and the System Safety requirements of NPR 8715.3 (NASA General Safety Program Requirements).

  11. Risk analysis of analytical validations by probabilistic modification of FMEA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barends, D.M.; Oldenhof, M.T.; Vredenbregt, M.J.

    2012-01-01

    Risk analysis is a valuable addition to validation of an analytical chemistry process, enabling not only detecting technical risks, but also risks related to human failures. Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) can be applied, using a categorical risk scoring of the occurrence, detection...... and severity of failure modes, and calculating the Risk Priority Number (RPN) to select failure modes for correction. We propose a probabilistic modification of FMEA, replacing the categorical scoring of occurrence and detection by their estimated relative frequency and maintaining the categorical scoring...... of severity. In an example, the results of traditional FMEA of a Near Infrared (NIR) analytical procedure used for the screening of suspected counterfeited tablets are re-interpretated by this probabilistic modification of FMEA. Using this probabilistic modification of FMEA, the frequency of occurrence...

  12. [Survival analysis with competing risks: estimating failure probability].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llorca, Javier; Delgado-Rodríguez, Miguel

    2004-01-01

    To show the impact of competing risks of death on survival analysis. We provide an example of survival time without chronic rejection after heart transplantation, where death before rejection acts as a competing risk. Using a computer simulation, we compare the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the multiple decrement model. The Kaplan-Meier method overestimated the probability of rejection. Next, we illustrate the use of the multiple decrement model to analyze secondary end points (in our example: death after rejection). Finally, we discuss Kaplan-Meier assumptions and why they fail in the presence of competing risks. Survival analysis should be adjusted for competing risks of death to avoid overestimation of the risk of rejection produced with the Kaplan-Meier method.

  13. Risk-benefit analysis and public policy: a bibliography

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clark, E.M.; Van Horn, A.J.

    1976-11-01

    Risk-benefit analysis has been implicitly practiced whenever decision-makers are confronted with decisions involving risks to life, health, or to the environment. Various methodologies have been developed to evaluate relevant criteria and to aid in assessing the impacts of alternative projects. Among these have been cost-benefit analysis, which has been widely used for project evaluation. However, in many cases it has been difficult to assign dollar costs to those criteria involving risks and benefits which are not now assigned explicit monetary values in our economic system. Hence, risk-benefit analysis has evolved to become more than merely an extension of cost-benefit analysis, and many methods have been applied to examine the trade-offs between risks and benefits. In addition, new scientific and statistical techniques have been developed for assessing current and future risks. The 950 references included in this bibliography are meant to suggest the breadth of those methodologies which have been applied to decisions involving risk.

  14. Risk-benefit analysis and public policy: a bibliography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clark, E.M.; Van Horn, A.J.

    1976-11-01

    Risk-benefit analysis has been implicitly practiced whenever decision-makers are confronted with decisions involving risks to life, health, or to the environment. Various methodologies have been developed to evaluate relevant criteria and to aid in assessing the impacts of alternative projects. Among these have been cost-benefit analysis, which has been widely used for project evaluation. However, in many cases it has been difficult to assign dollar costs to those criteria involving risks and benefits which are not now assigned explicit monetary values in our economic system. Hence, risk-benefit analysis has evolved to become more than merely an extension of cost-benefit analysis, and many methods have been applied to examine the trade-offs between risks and benefits. In addition, new scientific and statistical techniques have been developed for assessing current and future risks. The 950 references included in this bibliography are meant to suggest the breadth of those methodologies which have been applied to decisions involving risk

  15. Analysis of labour risks in the Spanish industrial aerospace sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JUAN LAGUARDIA

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Labour risk prevention is an activity integrated within Safety and Hygiene at Work in Spain. In 2003, the Electronic Declaration for Accidents at Work, Delt@ (DELTA was introduced. The industrial aerospace sector is subject to various risks. Our objective is to analyse the Spanish Industrial Aerospace Sector (SIAS using the ACSOM methodology to assess its labour risks and to prioritise preventive actions. The SIAS and the Services Subsector (SS were created and the relevant accident rate data were obtained. The ACSOM method was applied through double contrast (deviation and translocation of the SIAS or SS risk polygon with the considered pattern, accidents from all sectors (ACSOM G or the SIAS. A list of risks was obtained, ordered by action phases. In the SIAS vs. ACSOM G analysis, radiation risks were the worst, followed by overstrains. Accidents caused by living beings were also significant in the SS vs. SIAE, which will be able to be used to improve Risk Prevention. Radiation is the most significant risk in the SIAS and the SS. Preventive actions will be primary and secondary. ACSOM has shown itself to be a valid tool for the analysis of labour risks.

  16. Analysis of labour risks in the Spanish industrial aerospace sector.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laguardia, Juan; Rubio, Emilio; Garcia, Ana; Garcia-Foncillas, Rafael

    2016-01-01

    Labour risk prevention is an activity integrated within Safety and Hygiene at Work in Spain. In 2003, the Electronic Declaration for Accidents at Work, Delt@ (DELTA) was introduced. The industrial aerospace sector is subject to various risks. Our objective is to analyse the Spanish Industrial Aerospace Sector (SIAS) using the ACSOM methodology to assess its labour risks and to prioritise preventive actions. The SIAS and the Services Subsector (SS) were created and the relevant accident rate data were obtained. The ACSOM method was applied through double contrast (deviation and translocation) of the SIAS or SS risk polygon with the considered pattern, accidents from all sectors (ACSOM G) or the SIAS. A list of risks was obtained, ordered by action phases. In the SIAS vs. ACSOM G analysis, radiation risks were the worst, followed by overstrains. Accidents caused by living beings were also significant in the SS vs. SIAE, which will be able to be used to improve Risk Prevention. Radiation is the most significant risk in the SIAS and the SS. Preventive actions will be primary and secondary. ACSOM has shown itself to be a valid tool for the analysis of labour risks.

  17. APPROPRIATE ALLOCATION OF CONTINGENCY USING RISK ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andi Andi

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Many cost overruns in the world of construction are attributable to either unforeseen events or foreseen events for which uncertainty was not appropriately accommodated. It is argued that a significant improvement to project management performance may result from greater attention to the process of analyzing project risks. The objective of this paper is to propose a risk analysis methodology for appropriate allocation of contingency in project cost estimation. In the first step, project risks will be identified. Influence diagramming technique is employed to identify and to show how the risks affect the project cost elements and also the relationships among the risks themselves. The second step is to assess the project costs with regards to the risks under consideration. Using a linguistic approach, the degree of uncertainty of identified project risks is assessed and quantified. The problem of dependency between risks is taken into consideration during this analysis. For the final step, as the main purpose of this paper, a method for allocating appropriate contingency is presented. Two types of contingencies, i.e. project contingency and management reserve are proposed to accommodate the risks. An illustrative example is presented at the end to show the application of the methodology.

  18. Structural reliability analysis and seismic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hwang, H.; Reich, M.; Shinozuka, M.

    1984-01-01

    This paper presents a reliability analysis method for safety evaluation of nuclear structures. By utilizing this method, it is possible to estimate the limit state probability in the lifetime of structures and to generate analytically the fragility curves for PRA studies. The earthquake ground acceleration, in this approach, is represented by a segment of stationary Gaussian process with a zero mean and a Kanai-Tajimi Spectrum. All possible seismic hazard at a site represented by a hazard curve is also taken into consideration. Furthermore, the limit state of a structure is analytically defined and the corresponding limit state surface is then established. Finally, the fragility curve is generated and the limit state probability is evaluated. In this paper, using a realistic reinforced concrete containment as an example, results of the reliability analysis of the containment subjected to dead load, live load and ground earthquake acceleration are presented and a fragility curve for PRA studies is also constructed

  19. Methodology for flood risk analysis for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wagner, D.P.; Casada, M.L.; Fussell, J.B.

    1984-01-01

    The methodology for flood risk analysis described here addresses the effects of a flood on nuclear power plant safety systems. Combining the results of this method with the probability of a flood allows the effects of flooding to be included in a probabilistic risk assessment. The five-step methodology includes accident sequence screening to focus the detailed analysis efforts on the accident sequences that are significantly affected by a flood event. The quantitative results include the flood's contribution to system failure probability, accident sequence occurrence frequency and consequence category occurrence frequency. The analysis can be added to existing risk assessments without a significant loss in efficiency. The results of two example applications show the usefulness of the methodology. Both examples rely on the Reactor Safety Study for the required risk assessment inputs and present changes in the Reactor Safety Study results as a function of flood probability

  20. Methodology for risk-based analysis of technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vesely, W.E.; Gaertner, J.P.; Wagner, D.P.

    1985-01-01

    Part of the effort by EPRI to apply probabilistic risk assessment methods and results to the solution of utility problems involves the investigation of methods for risk-based analysis of technical specifications. The culmination of this investigation is the SOCRATES computer code developed by Battelle's Columbus Laboratories to assist in the evaluation of technical specifications of nuclear power plants. The program is designed to use information found in PRAs to re-evaluate risk for changes in component allowed outage times (AOTs) and surveillance test intervals (STIs). The SOCRATES program is a unique and important tool for technical specification evaluations. The detailed component unavailability model allows a detailed analysis of AOT and STI contributions to risk. Explicit equations allow fast and inexpensive calculations. Because the code is designed to accept ranges of parameters and to save results of calculations that do not change during the analysis, sensitivity studies are efficiently performed and results are clearly displayed

  1. Maritime transportation risk analysis: Review and analysis in light of some foundational issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goerlandt, Floris; Montewka, Jakub

    2015-01-01

    Many methods and applications for maritime transportation risk analysis have been presented in the literature. In parallel, there is a recent focus on foundational issues in risk analysis, with calls for intensified research on fundamental concepts and principles underlying the scientific field. This paper presents a review and analysis of risk definitions, perspectives and scientific approaches to risk analysis found in the maritime transportation application area, focusing on applications addressing accidental risk of shipping in a sea area. For this purpose, a classification of risk definitions, an overview of elements in risk perspectives and a classification of approaches to risk analysis science are applied. Results reveal that in the application area, risk is strongly tied to probability, both in definitions and perspectives, while alternative views exist. A diffuse situation is also found concerning the scientific approach to risk analysis, with realist, proceduralist and constructivist foundations co-existing. Realist approaches dominate the application area. Very few applications systematically account for uncertainty, neither concerning the evidence base nor in relation to the limitations of the risk model in relation to the space of possible outcomes. Some suggestions are made to improve the current situation, aiming to strengthen the scientific basis for risk analysis. - Highlights: • Risk analyses in maritime transportation analysed in light of foundational issues. • Focus on definitions, perspectives and scientific approaches to risk analysis. • Probability-based definitions and realist approaches dominate the field. • Findings support calls for increased focus on foundational issues in risk research. • Some suggestions are made to improve the current situation

  2. Probabilistic methodology for turbine missile risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Twisdale, L.A.; Dunn, W.L.; Frank, R.A.

    1984-01-01

    A methodology has been developed for estimation of the probabilities of turbine-generated missile damage to nuclear power plant structures and systems. Mathematical models of the missile generation, transport, and impact events have been developed and sequenced to form an integrated turbine missile simulation methodology. Probabilistic Monte Carlo techniques are used to estimate the plant impact and damage probabilities. The methodology has been coded in the TURMIS computer code to facilitate numerical analysis and plant-specific turbine missile probability assessments. Sensitivity analyses have been performed on both the individual models and the integrated methodology, and probabilities have been estimated for a hypothetical nuclear power plant case study. (orig.)

  3. Characteristic mTOR activity in Hodgkin-lymphomas offers a potential therapeutic target in high risk disease – a combined tissue microarray, in vitro and in vivo study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Márk, Ágnes; Kopper, László; Sebestyén, Anna; Hajdu, Melinda; Váradi, Zsófia; Sticz, Tamás Béla; Nagy, Noémi; Csomor, Judit; Berczi, Lajos; Varga, Viktória; Csóka, Monika

    2013-01-01

    Targeting signaling pathways is an attractive approach in many malignancies. The PI3K/Akt/mTOR pathway is activated in a number of human neoplasms, accompanied by lower overall and/or disease free survival. mTOR kinase inhibitors have been introduced in the therapy of renal cell carcinoma and mantle cell lymphoma, and several trials are currently underway. However, the pathological characterization of mTOR activity in lymphomas is still incomplete. mTOR activity and the elements of mTOR complexes were investigated by immunohistochemistry on tissue microarrays representing different human non-Hodgkin-lymphomas (81 cases) and Hodgkin-lymphomas (87 cases). The expression of phospho-mTOR, phospho-4EBP1, phospho-p70S6K, phospho-S6, Rictor, Raptor and Bcl-2, Bcl-xL, Survivin and NF-kappaB-p50 were evaluated, and mTOR activity was statistically analyzed along with 5-year survival data. The in vitro and in vivo effect of the mTOR inhibitor rapamycin was also examined in human Hodgkin-lymphoma cell lines. The majority (>50%) of mantle cell lymphoma, Burkitt lymphoma, diffuse large B-cell lymphoma, anaplastic large-cell lymphoma and Hodgkin-lymphoma cases showed higher mTOR activity compared to normal lymphoid tissues. Hodgkin-lymphoma was characterized by high mTOR activity in 93% of the cases, and Bcl-xL and NF-kappaB expression correlated with this mTOR activity. High mTOR activity was observed in the case of both favorable and unfavorable clinical response. Low mTOR activity was accompanied by complete remission and at least 5-year disease free survival in Hodgkin-lymphoma patients. However, statistical analysis did not identify correlation beetween mTOR activity and different clinical data of HL patients, such as survival. We also found that Rictor (mTORC2) was not overexpressed in Hodgkin-lymphoma biopsies and cell lines. Rapamycin inhibited proliferation and induced apoptosis in Hodgkin-lymphoma cells both in vitro and in vivo, moreover, it increased the apoptotic

  4. Framing medical tourism: an analysis of persuasive appeals, risks and benefits, and new media features of medical tourism broker websites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Hyunmin; Wright, Kevin B; O'Connor, Michaela; Wombacher, Kevin

    2014-01-01

    This study explores the benefits and risks featured in medical tourism broker websites, as well as the types of persuasive appeals that these websites use to attract potential customers, from a framing theory perspective. In addition, it examines relationships among types of appeals and specific types of health-related services offered by medical facilities abroad and the role of new media modalities within medical tourism broker sites. A content analysis of 91 medical tourism broker websites was conducted. The results indicate that the websites highly emphasized benefits while downplaying the risks. Specifically, despite offering consumers complicated and risky medical procedures, the websites failed to report any procedural, postoperative, or legal concerns associated with them. Moreover, the results indicated that the websites relied on heavy use of new media features to enhance the appeal of the medical services that were offered. The implications of these findings, future directions for research, and limitations of the study are discussed.

  5. Source modelling in seismic risk analysis for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yucemen, M.S.

    1978-12-01

    The proposed probabilistic procedure provides a consistent method for the modelling, analysis and updating of uncertainties that are involved in the seismic risk analysis for nuclear power plants. The potential earthquake activity zones are idealized as point, line or area sources. For these seismic source types, expressions to evaluate their contribution to seismic risk are derived, considering all the possible site-source configurations. The seismic risk at a site is found to depend not only on the inherent randomness of the earthquake occurrences with respect to magnitude, time and space, but also on the uncertainties associated with the predicted values of the seismic and geometric parameters, as well as the uncertainty in the attenuation model. The uncertainty due to the attenuation equation is incorporated into the analysis through the use of random correction factors. The influence of the uncertainty resulting from the insufficient information on the seismic parameters and source geometry is introduced into the analysis by computing a mean risk curve averaged over the various alternative assumptions on the parameters and source geometry. Seismic risk analysis is carried for the city of Denizli, which is located in the seismically most active zone of Turkey. The second analysis is for Akkuyu

  6. Challenges in the vulnerability and risk analysis of critical infrastructures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zio, Enrico

    2016-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to provide a systematic view on the problem of vulnerability and risk analysis of critical infrastructures. Reflections are made on the inherent complexities of these systems, related challenges are identified and possible ways forward for their analysis and management are indicated. Specifically: the framework of vulnerability and risk analysis is examined in relation to its application for the protection and resilience of critical infrastructures; it is argued that the complexity of these systems is a challenging characteristic, which calls for the integration of different modeling perspectives and new approaches of analysis; examples of are given in relation to the Internet and, particularly, the electric power grid, as representative of critical infrastructures and the associated complexity; the integration of different types of analyses and methods of system modeling is put forward for capturing the inherent structural and dynamic complexities of critical infrastructures and eventually evaluating their vulnerability and risk characteristics, so that decisions on protections and resilience actions can be taken with the required confidence. - Highlights: • The problem of the protection and resilience of CIs is the focus of the work. • The vulnerability and risk analysis framework for this is critically examined. • The complexity of CIs is presented as a challenge for system modeling and analysis. • The integration of different modeling perspectives of analysis is put forward as a solution. • The extension of the analysis framework to new methods for dealing with surprises and black swans is advocated.

  7. Revealing the underlying drivers of disaster risk: a global analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peduzzi, Pascal

    2017-04-01

    Disasters events are perfect examples of compound events. Disaster risk lies at the intersection of several independent components such as hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Understanding the weight of each component requires extensive standardisation. Here, I show how footprints of past disastrous events were generated using GIS modelling techniques and used for extracting population and economic exposures based on distribution models. Using past event losses, it was possible to identify and quantify a wide range of socio-politico-economic drivers associated with human vulnerability. The analysis was applied to about nine thousand individual past disastrous events covering earthquakes, floods and tropical cyclones. Using a multiple regression analysis on these individual events it was possible to quantify each risk component and assess how vulnerability is influenced by various hazard intensities. The results show that hazard intensity, exposure, poverty, governance as well as other underlying factors (e.g. remoteness) can explain the magnitude of past disasters. Analysis was also performed to highlight the role of future trends in population and climate change and how this may impacts exposure to tropical cyclones in the future. GIS models combined with statistical multiple regression analysis provided a powerful methodology to identify, quantify and model disaster risk taking into account its various components. The same methodology can be applied to various types of risk at local to global scale. This method was applied and developed for the Global Risk Analysis of the Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR). It was first applied on mortality risk in GAR 2009 and GAR 2011. New models ranging from global assets exposure and global flood hazard models were also recently developed to improve the resolution of the risk analysis and applied through CAPRA software to provide probabilistic economic risk assessments such as Average Annual Losses (AAL

  8. Aspects of the risk analysis in the process engineering industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hennings, W.; Madjar, M.; Mock, R.; Reer, B.

    1996-01-01

    This document is the result of a multi-discipline working group of a portion of a project called Risk analysis for chemical plants. Within the framework of the project, only selected methods and tools of risk analysis, thus, aspects of method, were able to be discussed and developed further. Case examples from the chemical industry are dealt with in order to discuss the application of a computer assisted quantitative error analysis in this industrial sector. Included is also a comprehensive documentation of the data and results utilised in the examples. figs., tabs., refs

  9. Is adaptation or transformation needed? Active nanomaterials and risk analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuzma, Jennifer; Roberts, John Patrick

    2016-07-01

    Nanotechnology has been a key area of funding and policy for the United States and globally for the past two decades. Since nanotechnology research and development became a focus and nanoproducts began to permeate the market, scholars and scientists have been concerned about how to assess the risks that they may pose to human health and the environment. The newest generation of nanomaterials includes biomolecules that can respond to and influence their environments, and there is a need to explore whether and how existing risk-analysis frameworks are challenged by such novelty. To fill this niche, we used a modified approach of upstream oversight assessment (UOA), a subset of anticipatory governance. We first selected case studies of "active nanomaterials," that are early in research and development and designed for use in multiple sectors, and then considered them under several, key risk-analysis frameworks. We found two ways in which the cases challenge the frameworks. The first category relates to how to assess risk under a narrow framing of the term (direct health and environmental harm), and the second involves the definition of what constitutes a "risk" worthy of assessment and consideration in decision making. In light of these challenges, we propose some changes for risk analysis in the face of active nanostructures in order to improve risk governance.

  10. Cable Hot Shorts and Circuit Analysis in Fire Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    LaChance, Jeffrey; Nowlen, Steven P.; Wyant, Frank

    1999-01-01

    Under existing methods of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), the analysis of fire-induced circuit faults has typically been conducted on a simplistic basis. In particular, those hot-short methodologies that have been applied remain controversial in regards to the scope of the assessments, the underlying methods, and the assumptions employed. To address weaknesses in fire PRA methodologies, the USNRC has initiated a fire risk analysis research program that includes a task for improving the tools for performing circuit analysis. The objective of this task is to obtain a better understanding of the mechanisms linking fire-induced cable damage to potentially risk-significant failure modes of power, control, and instrumentation cables. This paper discusses the current status of the circuit analysis task

  11. Cyber Risk Management for Critical Infrastructure: A Risk Analysis Model and Three Case Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paté-Cornell, M-Elisabeth; Kuypers, Marshall; Smith, Matthew; Keller, Philip

    2018-02-01

    Managing cyber security in an organization involves allocating the protection budget across a spectrum of possible options. This requires assessing the benefits and the costs of these options. The risk analyses presented here are statistical when relevant data are available, and system-based for high-consequence events that have not happened yet. This article presents, first, a general probabilistic risk analysis framework for cyber security in an organization to be specified. It then describes three examples of forward-looking analyses motivated by recent cyber attacks. The first one is the statistical analysis of an actual database, extended at the upper end of the loss distribution by a Bayesian analysis of possible, high-consequence attack scenarios that may happen in the future. The second is a systems analysis of cyber risks for a smart, connected electric grid, showing that there is an optimal level of connectivity. The third is an analysis of sequential decisions to upgrade the software of an existing cyber security system or to adopt a new one to stay ahead of adversaries trying to find their way in. The results are distributions of losses to cyber attacks, with and without some considered countermeasures in support of risk management decisions based both on past data and anticipated incidents. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  12. Ontology-based specification, identification and analysis of perioperative risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uciteli, Alexandr; Neumann, Juliane; Tahar, Kais; Saleh, Kutaiba; Stucke, Stephan; Faulbrück-Röhr, Sebastian; Kaeding, André; Specht, Martin; Schmidt, Tobias; Neumuth, Thomas; Besting, Andreas; Stegemann, Dominik; Portheine, Frank; Herre, Heinrich

    2017-09-06

    Medical personnel in hospitals often works under great physical and mental strain. In medical decision-making, errors can never be completely ruled out. Several studies have shown that between 50 and 60% of adverse events could have been avoided through better organization, more attention or more effective security procedures. Critical situations especially arise during interdisciplinary collaboration and the use of complex medical technology, for example during surgical interventions and in perioperative settings (the period of time before, during and after surgical intervention). In this paper, we present an ontology and an ontology-based software system, which can identify risks across medical processes and supports the avoidance of errors in particular in the perioperative setting. We developed a practicable definition of the risk notion, which is easily understandable by the medical staff and is usable for the software tools. Based on this definition, we developed a Risk Identification Ontology (RIO) and used it for the specification and the identification of perioperative risks. An agent system was developed, which gathers risk-relevant data during the whole perioperative treatment process from various sources and provides it for risk identification and analysis in a centralized fashion. The results of such an analysis are provided to the medical personnel in form of context-sensitive hints and alerts. For the identification of the ontologically specified risks, we developed an ontology-based software module, called Ontology-based Risk Detector (OntoRiDe). About 20 risks relating to cochlear implantation (CI) have already been implemented. Comprehensive testing has indicated the correctness of the data acquisition, risk identification and analysis components, as well as the web-based visualization of results.

  13. Risk analysis of radioactive waste management systems in Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wingender, H.J.

    1978-01-01

    Within the scope of a system study, ''Radioactive wastes in the Federal Republic of Germany,'' performed from 1974 through 1976, the questions of risk assessment were investigated. A risk analysis of a high-level waste (HLW) management system was performed. The results of the HLW tank storage are that the risk expectation value is 700 nJ/kg x RBE (7 x 10 -5 rem) per year for atmospheric release. The discussion of the main contributing accidents shows the possibility of reducing the risk by a technical means. A qualitative comparison on the release basis with the results of the WASH-1400 report shows significant differences that can be explained by the different methodologies applied. The risk analysis activities have led to a comprehensive risk assessment project, which was recently started. The projected includes research and development tasks concerning nuclide migration and transport to the ecosphere, nuclide mobilization by various mechanisms, methodology problems, data collection, computer code development, as well as risk analyses of waste management facilities. It is intended to round off the project with risk analyses of spent fuel element transport, storage, and reprocessing

  14. Fire risk analysis in ITER tritium building

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lignini, Franck; Uzan-Elbez, Joelle; Girard, Jean-Philippe; Porfiri, Maria Teresa; Rodriguez-Rodrigo, Lina

    2005-01-01

    Events, such as fire, have been considered in ITER documentation of low probability and a general approach has been defined in [Technical basis for the ITER final design, EDA Documentation Series I, No. 22, IAEA, Vienna, 2001] to be developed later for the ITER specific site. It was said that 'these hazards will be treated according to the industrial safety regulations and practices of the host country'. In the framework of studies for the European ITER site in Cadarache, an assessment of fire hazard has been done in order to ensure compliance with French safety requirements. In this report, a summary of existing laws is presented and an example of the deterministic approach to be followed for the preliminary safety report (PSR) is given on the analysis of tritium building design

  15. DORIAN, Bayes Method Plant Age Risk Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atwood, C.L.

    2002-01-01

    1 - Description of program or function: DORIAN is an integrated package for performing Bayesian aging analysis of reliability data; e.g. for identifying trends in component failure rates and/or outage durations as a function of time. The user must specify several alternative hypothesized 'aging models' (i.e., possible trends) along prior probabilities indicating the subject probability that each trend is actually the correct one. DORIAN then uses component failure and/or repair data over time to update these prior probabilities and develop a posterior probability for each aging model, representing the probability that each model is the correct one in light of the observed data rather than a priori. Mean, median, and 5. and 95. percentile trends are also compiled from the posterior probabilities. 2 - Method of solution: DORIAN carries out a Bayesian analysis of failure data and a prior distribution on a time-dependent failure rate to obtain a posterior distribution on the failure rate. The form of the time-dependent failure rate is arbitrary, because DORIAN approximates the form by a step-function, constant within specified time intervals. Similarly, the parameters may have any prior distribution, because DORIAN uses a discrete distribution to approximate this. Likewise, the database file produced by DORIAN approximates the entire range of possible failure rates or outage durations developed by means of a discrete probability distribution containing no more than 20 distinct values with their probabilities. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: Prior distribution is discrete with up to 25 values. Up to 60 times are accommodated in the discrete time history

  16. Second-Order Risk Constraints in Decision Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Love Ekenberg

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Recently, representations and methods aimed at analysing decision problems where probabilities and values (utilities are associated with distributions over them (second-order representations have been suggested. In this paper we present an approach to how imprecise information can be modelled by means of second-order distributions and how a risk evaluation process can be elaborated by integrating procedures for numerically imprecise probabilities and utilities. We discuss some shortcomings of the use of the principle of maximising the expected utility and of utility theory in general, and offer remedies by the introduction of supplementary decision rules based on a concept of risk constraints taking advantage of second-order distributions.

  17. Quantitative risk assessment using the capacity-demand analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morgenroth, M.; Donnelly, C.R.; Westermann, G.D.; Huang, J.H.S.; Lam, T.M.

    1999-01-01

    The hydroelectric industry's recognition of the importance of avoiding unexpected failure, or forced outages, led to the development of probabilistic, or risk-based, methods in order to attempt to quantify exposures. Traditionally, such analysis has been carried out by qualitative assessments, relying on experience and sound engineering judgment to determine the optimum time to maintain, repair or replace a part or system. Depending on the nature of the problem, however, and the level of experience of those included in the decision making process, it is difficult to find a balance between acting proactively and accepting some amount of risk. The development of a practical means for establishing the probability of failure of any part or system, based on the determination of the statistical distribution of engineering properties such as acting stresses, is discussed. The capacity-demand analysis methodology, coupled with probablistic, risk-based analysis, permits all the factors associated with a decision to rehabilitate or replace a part, including the risks associated with the timing of the decision, to be assessed in a transparent and defendable manner. The methodology does not eliminate judgment altogether, but does move it from the level of estimating the risk of failure to the lower level of estimating variability in material properties, uncertainty in loading, and the uncertainties inherent in any engineering analysis. The method was successfully used in 1998 to carry out a comprehensive, economic risk analysis for the entire water conveyance system of a 90 year old hydropower station. The analysis included a number of diverse parts ranging from rock slopes and aging steel and concrete conduits, and the method allowed a rational assessment of the risks associated with reach of these varied parts to be determined, permitting the essential remedial works to be prioritized. 14 refs., 4 figs

  18. Risk-based configuration control system: Analysis and approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Lofgren, E.V.; Vesely, W.E.

    1990-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of risks associated with component outage configurations during power operation of a nuclear power plant and discusses approaches and strategies for developing a risk-based configuration control system. A configuration, as used here, is a set of component states. The objective of risk-based configuration control is to detect and control plant configurations using a risk-perspective. The configuration contributions to core-melt frequency and core-melt probability are studied for two plants. Large core-melt frequency can be caused by configurations and there are a number of such configurations that are not currently controlled by technical specifications. However, the expected frequency of occurrence of the impacting configurations is small and the actual core-melt probability contributions are also generally small. Effective strategies and criteria for controlling configuration risks are presented. Such control strategies take into consideration the risks associated with configurations, the nature and characteristics of the configuration risks, and also the practical considerations such as adequate repair times and/or options to transfer to low risk configurations. Alternative types of criteria are discussed that are not overly restrictive to result in unnecessary plant shutdown, but rather motivates effective test and maintenance practices that control risk-significant configurations to allow continued operation with an adequate margin to meet challenges to safety

  19. Risk-based configuration control system: Analysis and approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Vesely, W.E.; Kim, I.S.; Lofgren, E.V.

    1989-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of risks associated with component outage configurations during power operation of a nuclear power plant and discusses approaches and strategies for developing a risk-based configuration control system. A configuration, as used here, is a set of component states. The objective of risk-based configuration control is to detect and control plant configurations using a risk-perspective. The configuration contributions to core-melt frequency and core-melt probability are studied for two plants. Large core-melt frequency can be caused by configurations and there are a number of such configurations that are not currently controlled by technical specifications. However, the expected frequency of occurrence of the impacting configurations is small and the actual core-melt probability contributions are also generally small. Effective strategies and criteria for controlling configuration risks are presented. Such control strategies take into consideration the risks associated with configurations, the nature and characteristics of the configuration risks, and also the practical considerations such as adequate repair times and/or options to transfer to low risk configurations. Alternative types of criteria are discussed that are not overly restrictive to result in unnecessary plant shutdown, but rather motivates effective tests and maintenance practices that control; risk-significant configurations to allow continued operation with an adequate margin to meet challenges to safety. 3 refs., 7 figs., 2 tabs

  20. Explaining HIV Risk Multiplexity: A Social Network Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Felsher, Marisa; Koku, Emmanuel

    2018-04-21

    Risk multiplexity (i.e., overlap in drug-use, needle exchange and sexual relations) is a known risk factor for HIV. However, little is known about predictors of multiplexity. This study uses egocentric data from the Colorado Springs study to examine how individual, behavioral and social network factors influence engagement in multiplex risk behavior. Analyses revealed that compared to Whites, Hispanics were significantly more likely to engage in risk multiplexity and Blacks less so. Respondents who were similar to each other (e.g., in terms of race) had significantly higher odds of being in risk multiplex relationships, and respondents' risk perceptions and network size were significantly associated with engaging in multiplex risk behaviors. Findings from interaction analysis showed the effect of knowing someone with HIV on the odds of multiplexity depends partly on whether respondents' know their HIV status. Findings suggest that demographics, HIV behaviors and network factors impact engagement in multiplex risk behaviors, highlighting the need for multi-level interventions aimed at reducing HIV risk behavior.

  1. Tutorial: Parallel Computing of Simulation Models for Risk Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reilly, Allison C; Staid, Andrea; Gao, Michael; Guikema, Seth D

    2016-10-01

    Simulation models are widely used in risk analysis to study the effects of uncertainties on outcomes of interest in complex problems. Often, these models are computationally complex and time consuming to run. This latter point may be at odds with time-sensitive evaluations or may limit the number of parameters that are considered. In this article, we give an introductory tutorial focused on parallelizing simulation code to better leverage modern computing hardware, enabling risk analysts to better utilize simulation-based methods for quantifying uncertainty in practice. This article is aimed primarily at risk analysts who use simulation methods but do not yet utilize parallelization to decrease the computational burden of these models. The discussion is focused on conceptual aspects of embarrassingly parallel computer code and software considerations. Two complementary examples are shown using the languages MATLAB and R. A brief discussion of hardware considerations is located in the Appendix. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  2. Analysis of Blade Fragment Risk at a Wind Energy Facility

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Simms, David A [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Larwood, Scott [University of the Pacific

    2018-04-06

    An analysis was performed to determine the risk posed by wind turbine fragments on roads and buildings at the National Wind Technology Center at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The authors used a previously developed model of fragment trajectory and took into account the wind speed/direction distribution at the site and the probability of rotor failure. The risk was assessed by determining the likelihood of impact and related consequences. For both the roads and buildings, the risk varied from low to routine, which was considered acceptable. The analysis was compared with previous recommendations on wind turbine setback distances. The results showed that a setback to property lines of 2 times the overall turbine height would be acceptable. However, the setback to dwellings should probably be increased from 3 to 3.5 times the overall turbine height for an acceptable risk.

  3. ANALYSIS METHODS OF BANKRUPTCY RISK IN ROMANIAN ENERGY MINING INDUSTRY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CORICI MARIAN CATALIN

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The study is an analysis of bankruptcy risk and assessing the economic performance of the entity in charge of energy mining industry from southwest region. The scientific activity assesses the risk of bankruptcy using score’s method and some indicators witch reflecting the results obtained and elements from organization balance sheet involved in mining and energy which contributes to the stability of the national energy system. Analysis undertaken is focused on the application of the business organization models that allow a comprehensive assessment of the risk of bankruptcy and be an instrument of its forecast. In this study will be highlighted developments bankruptcy risk within the organization through the Altman model and Conan-Holder model in order to show a versatile image on the organization's ability to ensure business continuity

  4. Environmental Risk Assessment: Spatial Analysis of Chemical Hazards and Risks in South Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, H.; Heo, S.; Kim, M.; Lee, W. K.; Jong-Ryeul, S.

    2017-12-01

    This study identified chemical hazard and risk levels in Korea by analyzing the spatial distribution of chemical factories and accidents. The number of chemical factories and accidents in 5-km2 grids were used as the attribute value for spatial analysis. First, semi-variograms were conducted to examine spatial distribution patterns and to identify spatial autocorrelation of chemical factories and accidents. Semi-variograms explained that the spatial distribution of chemical factories and accidents were spatially autocorrelated. Second, the results of the semi-variograms were used in Ordinary Kriging to estimate chemical hazard and risk level. The level values were extracted from the Ordinary Kriging result and their spatial similarity was examined by juxtaposing the two values with respect to their location. Six peaks were identified in both the hazard and risk estimation result, and the peaks correlated with major cities in Korea. Third, the estimated hazard and risk levels were classified with geometrical interval and could be classified into four quadrants: Low Hazard and Low Risk (LHLR), Low Hazard and High Risk (LHHR), High Hazard and Low Risk (HHLR), and High Hazard and High Risk (HHHR). The 4 groups identified different chemical safety management issues in Korea; relatively safe LHLR group, many chemical reseller factories were found in HHLR group, chemical transportation accidents were in the LHHR group, and an abundance of factories and accidents were in the HHHR group. Each quadrant represented different safety management obstacles in Korea, and studying spatial differences can support the establishment of an efficient risk management plan.

  5. Dealing with uncertainty and pursuing superior technology options in risk management-The inherency risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helland, Aasgeir

    2009-01-01

    Current regulatory systems focus on the state of scientific evidence as the predominant factor for how to handle risks to human health and the environment. However, production and assessment of risk information are costly and time-consuming, and firms have an intrinsic disincentive to produce and distribute information about risks of their products as this could endanger their production opportunities and sales. An emphasis on more or better science may result in insufficient thought and attention going into the exploration of technology alternatives, and that risk management policies miss out on the possible achievement of a more favorable set of consequences. In this article, a method is proposed that combines risk assessment with the search for alternative technological options as a part of the risk management procedure. The method proposed is the inherency risk analysis where the first stage focuses on the original agent subject to investigation, the second stage focuses on identifying technological options whereas the third stage reviews the different alternatives, searching for the most attractive tradeoffs between costs and inherent safety. This is then used as a fundament for deciding which technology option to pursue. This method aims at providing a solution-focused, systematic technology-based approach for addressing and setting priorities for environmental problems. By combining risk assessment with a structured approach to identify superior technology options within a risk management system, the result could very well be a win-win situation for both company and the environment.

  6. Hierarchical Modelling of Flood Risk for Engineering Decision Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Custer, Rocco

    protection structures in the hierarchical flood protection system - is identified. To optimise the design of protection structures, fragility and vulnerability models must allow for consideration of decision alternatives. While such vulnerability models are available for large protection structures (e...... systems, as well as the implementation of the flood risk analysis methodology and the vulnerability modelling approach are illustrated with an example application. In summary, the present thesis provides a characterisation of hierarchical flood protection systems as well as several methodologies to model...... and robust. Traditional risk management solutions, e.g. dike construction, are not particularly flexible, as they are difficult to adapt to changing risk. Conversely, the recent concept of integrated flood risk management, entailing a combination of several structural and non-structural risk management...

  7. Surplus analysis of Sparre Andersen insurance risk processes

    CERN Document Server

    Willmot, Gordon E

    2017-01-01

    This carefully written monograph covers the Sparre Andersen process in an actuarial context using the renewal process as the model for claim counts. A unified reference on Sparre Andersen (renewal risk) processes is included, often missing from existing literature. The authors explore recent results and analyse various risk theoretic quantities associated with the event of ruin, including the time of ruin and the deficit of ruin. Particular attention is given to the explicit identification of defective renewal equation components, which are needed to analyse various risk theoretic quantities and are also relevant in other subject areas of applied probability such as dams and storage processes, as well as queuing theory. Aimed at researchers interested in risk/ruin theory and related areas, this work will also appeal to graduate students in classical and modern risk theory and Gerber-Shiu analysis.

  8. Hierarchic Analysis Method to Evaluate Rock Burst Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming Ji

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to reasonably evaluate the risk of rock bursts in mines, the factors impacting rock bursts and the existing grading criterion on the risk of rock bursts were studied. By building a model of hierarchic analysis method, the natural factors, technology factors, and management factors that influence rock bursts were analyzed and researched, which determined the degree of each factor’s influence (i.e., weight and comprehensive index. Then the grade of rock burst risk was assessed. The results showed that the assessment level generated by the model accurately reflected the actual risk degree of rock bursts in mines. The model improved the maneuverability and practicability of existing evaluation criteria and also enhanced the accuracy and science of rock burst risk assessment.

  9. Case studies: Risk-based analysis of technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wagner, D.P.; Minton, L.A.; Gaertner, J.P.

    1987-01-01

    The SOCRATES computer program uses the results of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) or a system level risk analysis to calculate changes in risk due to changes in the surveillance test interval and/or the allowed outage time stated in the technical specification. The computer program can accommodate various testing strategies (such as staggered or simultaneous testing) to allow modeling of component testing as it is carried out at a plant. The methods and computer program are an integral part of a larger decision process aimed at determining benefits from technical specification changes. These benefits can include cost savings to the utilities by reducing forced shutdowns with no adverse impacts on risk. Three summaries of case study applications are included to demonstrate the types of results that can be achieved through risk-based evaluation of technical specifications. (orig.)

  10. Offering Strategy of a Flexibility Aggregator in a Balancing Market Using Asymmetric Block Offers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bobo, Lucien Ali; Delikaraoglou, Stefanos; Vespermann, Niklas

    2018-01-01

    scenarios are used to find optimal load-shifting offers under uncertainty. The problem is formulated as a stochastic mixed-integer linear program and can be solved with reasonable computational time. This work is taking place in the framework of the real-life demonstration project EcoGrid 2.0, which......In order to enable large-scale penetration of renewables with variable generation, new sources of flexibility have to be exploited in the power systems. Allowing asymmetric block offers (including response and rebound blocks) in balancing markets can facilitate the participation of flexibility...... aggregators and unlock load-shifting flexibility from, e.g., thermostatic loads. In this paper, we formulate an optimal offering strategy for a risk-averse flexibility aggregator participating in such a market. Using a price-taker approach, load flexibility characteristics and balancing market price forecast...

  11. Risk factor analysis of equine strongyle resistance to anthelmintics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Sallé

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Intestinal strongyles are the most problematic endoparasites of equids as a result of their wide distribution and the spread of resistant isolates throughout the world. While abundant literature can be found on the extent of anthelmintic resistance across continents, empirical knowledge about associated risk factors is missing. This study brought together results from anthelmintic efficacy testing and risk factor analysis to provide evidence-based guidelines in the field. It involved 688 horses from 39 French horse farms and riding schools to both estimate Faecal Egg Count Reduction (FECR after anthelmintic treatment and to interview farm and riding school managers about their practices. Risk factors associated with reduced anthelmintic efficacy in equine strongyles were estimated across drugs using a marginal modelling approach. Results demonstrated ivermectin efficacy (96.3% ± 14.5% FECR, the inefficacy of fenbendazole (42.8% ± 33.4% FECR and an intermediate profile for pyrantel (90.3% ± 19.6% FECR. Risk factor analysis provided support to advocate for FEC-based treatment regimens combined with individual anthelmintic dosage and the enforcement of tighter biosecurity around horse introduction. The combination of these measures resulted in a decreased risk of drug resistance (relative risk of 0.57, p = 0.02. Premises falling under this typology also relied more on their veterinarians suggesting practitionners play an important role in the sustainability of anthelmintic usage. Similarly, drug resistance risk was halved in premises with frequent pasture rotation and with stocking rate below five horses/ha (relative risk of 0.53, p < 0.01. This is the first empirical risk factor analysis for anthelmintic resistance in equids. Our findings should guide the implementation of more sustained strongyle management in the field. Keywords: Horse, Nematode, Anthelmintic resistance, Strongyle, Cyathostomin

  12. A model of pathways to artificial superintelligence catastrophe for risk and decision analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrett, Anthony M.; Baum, Seth D.

    2017-03-01

    An artificial superintelligence (ASI) is an artificial intelligence that is significantly more intelligent than humans in all respects. Whilst ASI does not currently exist, some scholars propose that it could be created sometime in the future, and furthermore that its creation could cause a severe global catastrophe, possibly even resulting in human extinction. Given the high stakes, it is important to analyze ASI risk and factor the risk into decisions related to ASI research and development. This paper presents a graphical model of major pathways to ASI catastrophe, focusing on ASI created via recursive self-improvement. The model uses the established risk and decision analysis modelling paradigms of fault trees and influence diagrams in order to depict combinations of events and conditions that could lead to AI catastrophe, as well as intervention options that could decrease risks. The events and conditions include select aspects of the ASI itself as well as the human process of ASI research, development and management. Model structure is derived from published literature on ASI risk. The model offers a foundation for rigorous quantitative evaluation and decision-making on the long-term risk of ASI catastrophe.

  13. Advanced uncertainty modelling for container port risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alyami, Hani; Yang, Zaili; Riahi, Ramin; Bonsall, Stephen; Wang, Jin

    2016-08-13

    Globalization has led to a rapid increase of container movements in seaports. Risks in seaports need to be appropriately addressed to ensure economic wealth, operational efficiency, and personnel safety. As a result, the safety performance of a Container Terminal Operational System (CTOS) plays a growing role in improving the efficiency of international trade. This paper proposes a novel method to facilitate the application of Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) in assessing the safety performance of CTOS. The new approach is developed through incorporating a Fuzzy Rule-Based Bayesian Network (FRBN) with Evidential Reasoning (ER) in a complementary manner. The former provides a realistic and flexible method to describe input failure information for risk estimates of individual hazardous events (HEs) at the bottom level of a risk analysis hierarchy. The latter is used to aggregate HEs safety estimates collectively, allowing dynamic risk-based decision support in CTOS from a systematic perspective. The novel feature of the proposed method, compared to those in traditional port risk analysis lies in a dynamic model capable of dealing with continually changing operational conditions in ports. More importantly, a new sensitivity analysis method is developed and carried out to rank the HEs by taking into account their specific risk estimations (locally) and their Risk Influence (RI) to a port's safety system (globally). Due to its generality, the new approach can be tailored for a wide range of applications in different safety and reliability engineering and management systems, particularly when real time risk ranking is required to measure, predict, and improve the associated system safety performance. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Multi-hazard risk analysis for management strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kappes, M.; Keiler, M.; Bell, R.; Glade, T.

    2009-04-01

    Risk management is very often operating in a reactive way, responding to an event, instead of proactive starting with risk analysis and building up the whole process of risk evaluation, prevention, event management and regeneration. Since damage and losses from natural hazards raise continuously more and more studies, concepts (e.g. Switzerland or South Tyrol-Bolozano) and software packages (e.g. ARMAGEDOM, HAZUS or RiskScape) are developed to guide, standardize and facilitate the risk analysis. But these approaches focus on different aspects and are mostly closely adapted to the situation (legislation, organization of the administration, specific processes etc.) of the specific country or region. We propose in this study the development of a flexible methodology for multi-hazard risk analysis, identifying the stakeholders and their needs, processes and their characteristics, modeling approaches as well as incoherencies occurring by combining all these different aspects. Based on this concept a flexible software package will be established consisting of ArcGIS as central base and being complemented by various modules for hazard modeling, vulnerability assessment and risk calculation. Not all modules will be developed newly but taken from the current state-of-the-art and connected or integrated into ArcGIS. For this purpose two study sites, Valtellina in Italy and Bacelonnette in France, were chosen and the hazards types debris flows, rockfalls, landslides, avalanches and floods are planned to be included in the tool for a regional multi-hazard risk analysis. Since the central idea of this tool is its flexibility this will only be a first step, in the future further processes and scales can be included and the instrument thus adapted to any study site.

  15. RISK LEVEL ANALYSIS ON THE PREVENTIVE EROSION CAPACITY OF BRIDGES

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    Deficiency of the Preventive Erosion Capacity (PEC) of a bridge pier is the main factor leading to bridge failures. In this paper, the PEC of bridge piers was analyzed using the stochastic analysis method. The definitions of the reliability and risk level of a bridge pier subjected to water erosion were proposed and a computational model for erosion depth and risk level in was suggested.

  16. Chronic wasting disease risk analysis workshop: An integrative approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gillette, Shana; Dein, Joshua; Salman, Mo; Richards, Bryan; Duarte, Paulo

    2004-01-01

    Risk analysis tools have been successfully used to determine the potential hazard associated with disease introductions and have facilitated management decisions designed to limit the potential for disease introduction. Chronic Wasting Disease (CWD) poses significant challenges for resource managers due to an incomplete understanding of disease etiology and epidemiology and the complexity of management and political jurisdictions. Tools designed specifically to assess the risk of CWD introduction would be of great value to policy makers in areas where CWD has not been detected.

  17. A kidney offer acceptance decision tool to inform the decision to accept an offer or wait for a better kidney.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wey, Andrew; Salkowski, Nicholas; Kremers, Walter K; Schaffhausen, Cory R; Kasiske, Bertram L; Israni, Ajay K; Snyder, Jon J

    2018-04-01

    We developed a kidney offer acceptance decision tool to predict the probability of graft survival and patient survival for first-time kidney-alone candidates after an offer is accepted or declined, and we characterized the effect of restricting the donor pool with a maximum acceptable kidney donor profile index (KDPI). For accepted offers, Cox proportional hazards models estimated these probabilities using transplanted kidneys. For declined offers, these probabilities were estimated by considering the experience of similar candidates who declined offers and the probability that declining would lead to these outcomes. We randomly selected 5000 declined offers and estimated these probabilities 3 years post-offer had the offers been accepted or declined. Predicted outcomes for declined offers were well calibrated (offers been accepted, the probabilities of graft survival and patient survival were typically higher. However, these advantages attenuated or disappeared with higher KDPI, candidate priority, and local donor supply. Donor pool restrictions were associated with worse 3-year outcomes, especially for candidates with high allocation priority. The kidney offer acceptance decision tool could inform offer acceptance by characterizing the potential risk-benefit trade-off associated with accepting or declining an offer. © 2017 The American Society of Transplantation and the American Society of Transplant Surgeons.

  18. State of the art in benefit-risk analysis: introduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verhagen, H; Tijhuis, M J; Gunnlaugsdóttir, H; Kalogeras, N; Leino, O; Luteijn, J M; Magnússon, S H; Odekerken, G; Pohjola, M V; Tuomisto, J T; Ueland, Ø; White, B C; Holm, F

    2012-01-01

    Risk-taking is normal in everyday life if there are associated (perceived) benefits. Benefit-Risk Analysis (BRA) compares the risk of a situation to its related benefits and addresses the acceptability of the risk. Over the past years BRA in relation to food and food ingredients has gained attention. Food, and even the same food ingredient, may confer both beneficial and adverse effects. Measures directed at food safety may lead to suboptimal or insufficient levels of ingredients from a benefit perspective. In BRA, benefits and risks of food (ingredients) are assessed in one go and may conditionally be expressed into one currency. This allows the comparison of adverse and beneficial effects to be qualitative and quantitative. A BRA should help policy-makers to make more informed and balanced benefit-risk management decisions. Not allowing food benefits to occur in order to guarantee food safety is a risk management decision much the same as accepting some risk in order to achieve more benefits. BRA in food and nutrition is making progress, but difficulties remain. The field may benefit from looking across its borders to learn from other research areas. The BEPRARIBEAN project (Best Practices for Risk-Benefit Analysis: experience from out of food into food; http://en.opasnet.org/w/Bepraribean) aims to do so, by working together with Medicines, Food Microbiology, Environmental Health, Economics & Marketing-Finance and Consumer Perception. All perspectives are reviewed and subsequently integrated to identify opportunities for further development of BRA for food and food ingredients. Interesting issues that emerge are the varying degrees of risk that are deemed acceptable within the areas and the trend towards more open and participatory BRA processes. A set of 6 'state of the art' papers covering the above areas and a paper integrating the separate (re)views are published in this volume. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Automated procedure for performing computer security risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, S.T.; Lim, J.J.

    1984-05-01

    Computers, the invisible backbone of nuclear safeguards, monitor and control plant operations and support many materials accounting systems. Our automated procedure to assess computer security effectiveness differs from traditional risk analysis methods. The system is modeled as an interactive questionnaire, fully automated on a portable microcomputer. A set of modular event trees links the questionnaire to the risk assessment. Qualitative scores are obtained for target vulnerability, and qualitative impact measures are evaluated for a spectrum of threat-target pairs. These are then combined by a linguistic algebra to provide an accurate and meaningful risk measure. 12 references, 7 figures

  20. Risk Analysis and Decision Making FY 2013 Milestone Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.; Dale, Crystal; Jones, Edward; Thompson, J.

    2013-06-01

    Risk analysis and decision making is one of the critical objectives of CCSI, which seeks to use information from science-based models with quantified uncertainty to inform decision makers who are making large capital investments. The goal of this task is to develop tools and capabilities to facilitate the development of risk models tailored for carbon capture technologies, quantify the uncertainty of model predictions, and estimate the technical and financial risks associated with the system. This effort aims to reduce costs by identifying smarter demonstrations, which could accelerate development and deployment of the technology by several years.

  1. Analysis of interactions among barriers in project risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dandage, Rahul V.; Mantha, Shankar S.; Rane, Santosh B.; Bhoola, Vanita

    2018-03-01

    In the context of the scope, time, cost, and quality constraints, failure is not uncommon in project management. While small projects have 70% chances of success, large projects virtually have no chance of meeting the quadruple constraints. While there is no dearth of research on project risk management, the manifestation of barriers to project risk management is a less dwelt topic. The success of project management is oftentimes based on the understanding of barriers to effective risk management, application of appropriate risk management methodology, proactive leadership to avoid barriers, workers' attitude, adequate resources, organizational culture, and involvement of top management. This paper represents various risk categories and barriers to risk management in domestic and international projects through literature survey and feedback from project professionals. After analysing the various modelling methods used in project risk management literature, interpretive structural modelling (ISM) and MICMAC analysis have been used to analyse interactions among the barriers and prioritize them. The analysis indicates that lack of top management support, lack of formal training, and lack of addressing cultural differences are the high priority barriers, among many others.

  2. Gambler Risk Perception: A Mental Model and Grounded Theory Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spurrier, Michael; Blaszczynski, Alexander; Rhodes, Paul

    2015-09-01

    Few studies have investigated how gamblers perceive risk or the role of risk perception in disordered gambling. The purpose of the current study therefore was to obtain data on lay gamblers' beliefs on these variables and their effects on decision-making, behaviour, and disordered gambling aetiology. Fifteen regular lay gamblers (non-problem/low risk, moderate risk and problem gamblers) completed a semi-structured interview following mental models and grounded theory methodologies. Gambler interview data was compared to an expert 'map' of risk-perception, to identify comparative gaps or differences associated with harmful or safe gambling. Systematic overlapping processes of data gathering and analysis were used to iteratively extend, saturate, test for exception, and verify concepts and themes emerging from the data. The preliminary findings suggested that gambler accounts supported the presence of expert conceptual constructs, and to some degree the role of risk perception in protecting against or increasing vulnerability to harm and disordered gambling. Gambler accounts of causality, meaning, motivation, and strategy were highly idiosyncratic, and often contained content inconsistent with measures of disordered gambling. Disordered gambling appears heavily influenced by relative underestimation of risk and overvaluation of gambling, based on explicit and implicit analysis, and deliberate, innate, contextual, and learned processing evaluations and biases.

  3. Dietary patterns and depression risk: A meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ye; Lv, Mei-Rong; Wei, Yan-Jin; Sun, Ling; Zhang, Ji-Xiang; Zhang, Huai-Guo; Li, Bin

    2017-07-01

    Although some studies have reported potential associations of dietary patterns with depression risk, a consistent perspective hasn't been estimated to date. Therefore, we conducted this meta-analysis to evaluate the relation between dietary patterns and the risk of depression. A literature research was conducted searching MEDLINE and EMBASE databases up to September 2016. In total, 21 studies from ten countries met the inclusion criteria and were included in the present meta-analysis. A dietary pattern characterized by a high intakes of fruit, vegetables, whole grain, fish, olive oil, low-fat dairy and antioxidants and low intakes of animal foods was apparently associated with a decreased risk of depression. A dietary pattern characterized by a high consumption of red and/or processed meat, refined grains, sweets, high-fat dairy products, butter, potatoes and high-fat gravy, and low intakes of fruits and vegetables is associated with an increased risk of depression. The results of this meta-analysis suggest that healthy pattern may decrease the risk of depression, whereas western-style may increase the risk of depression. However, more randomized controlled trails and cohort studies are urgently required to confirm this findings. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Is adaptation or transformation needed? Active nanomaterials and risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuzma, Jennifer; Roberts, John Patrick

    2016-01-01

    Nanotechnology has been a key area of funding and policy for the United States and globally for the past two decades. Since nanotechnology research and development became a focus and nanoproducts began to permeate the market, scholars and scientists have been concerned about how to assess the risks that they may pose to human health and the environment. The newest generation of nanomaterials includes biomolecules that can respond to and influence their environments, and there is a need to explore whether and how existing risk-analysis frameworks are challenged by such novelty. To fill this niche, we used a modified approach of upstream oversight assessment (UOA), a subset of anticipatory governance. We first selected case studies of “active nanomaterials,” that are early in research and development and designed for use in multiple sectors, and then considered them under several, key risk-analysis frameworks. We found two ways in which the cases challenge the frameworks. The first category relates to how to assess risk under a narrow framing of the term (direct health and environmental harm), and the second involves the definition of what constitutes a “risk” worthy of assessment and consideration in decision making. In light of these challenges, we propose some changes for risk analysis in the face of active nanostructures in order to improve risk governance.

  5. Is adaptation or transformation needed? Active nanomaterials and risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kuzma, Jennifer, E-mail: jkuzma@ncsu.edu [North Carolina State University, School of Public and International Affairs and Genetic Engineering and Society Center (United States); Roberts, John Patrick [North Carolina State University, School of Public and International Affairs (United States)

    2016-07-15

    Nanotechnology has been a key area of funding and policy for the United States and globally for the past two decades. Since nanotechnology research and development became a focus and nanoproducts began to permeate the market, scholars and scientists have been concerned about how to assess the risks that they may pose to human health and the environment. The newest generation of nanomaterials includes biomolecules that can respond to and influence their environments, and there is a need to explore whether and how existing risk-analysis frameworks are challenged by such novelty. To fill this niche, we used a modified approach of upstream oversight assessment (UOA), a subset of anticipatory governance. We first selected case studies of “active nanomaterials,” that are early in research and development and designed for use in multiple sectors, and then considered them under several, key risk-analysis frameworks. We found two ways in which the cases challenge the frameworks. The first category relates to how to assess risk under a narrow framing of the term (direct health and environmental harm), and the second involves the definition of what constitutes a “risk” worthy of assessment and consideration in decision making. In light of these challenges, we propose some changes for risk analysis in the face of active nanostructures in order to improve risk governance.

  6. 31 CFR 50.13 - Offer, purchase, and renewal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... Section 50.13 Money and Finance: Treasury Office of the Secretary of the Treasury TERRORISM RISK INSURANCE PROGRAM Disclosures as Conditions for Federal Payment § 50.13 Offer, purchase, and renewal. An insurer is deemed to be in compliance with the requirement of providing disclosure “at the time of offer, purchase...

  7. Benefit-Risk Analysis for Decision-Making: An Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raju, G K; Gurumurthi, K; Domike, R

    2016-12-01

    The analysis of benefit and risk is an important aspect of decision-making throughout the drug lifecycle. In this work, the use of a benefit-risk analysis approach to support decision-making was explored. The proposed approach builds on the qualitative US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approach to include a more explicit analysis based on international standards and guidance that enables aggregation and comparison of benefit and risk on a common basis and a lifecycle focus. The approach is demonstrated on six decisions over the lifecycle (e.g., accelerated approval, withdrawal, and traditional approval) using two case studies: natalizumab for multiple sclerosis (MS) and bedaquiline for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB). © 2016 American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

  8. Flood risk analysis procedure for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wagner, D.P.

    1982-01-01

    This paper describes a methodology and procedure for determining the impact of floods on nuclear power plant risk. The procedures are based on techniques of fault tree and event tree analysis and use the logic of these techniques to determine the effects of a flood on system failure probability and accident sequence occurrence frequency. The methodology can be applied independently or as an add-on analysis for an existing risk assessment. Each stage of the analysis yields useful results such as the critical flood level, failure flood level, and the flood's contribution to accident sequence occurrence frequency. The results of applications show the effects of floods on the risk from nuclear power plants analyzed in the Reactor Safety Study

  9. Policy offers protection from harassment

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNutt, Marcia

    We face a number of legal and ethical issues in our work as scientists and as AGU members. To uphold the highest ethical standards in our professional activities, the Council has adopted policies on free access to published material, ethics in publishing, and misconduct in science. But what about guidelines to govern the personal behavior that constitutes harassment, sexual or otherwise?For years the AGU headquarters staff has had a policy that offers protection from harassment and rules for dealing with it, but the membership went without one until 1994. That year the Council adopted a policy that extends to the membership as well as to the staff and the vendors they encounter at meetings. The law only requires a policy to prevent harassment in the workplace, but the Council felt that a harassment policy was particularly important for members because the subtle behavior that can constitute harassment is most likely to occur at events that combine work and social interaction, such as the meetings, conferences, and training seminars that AGU members attend.

  10. System risk evolution analysis and risk critical event identification based on event sequence diagram

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luo, Pengcheng; Hu, Yang

    2013-01-01

    During system operation, the environmental, operational and usage conditions are time-varying, which causes the fluctuations of the system state variables (SSVs). These fluctuations change the accidents’ probabilities and then result in the system risk evolution (SRE). This inherent relation makes it feasible to realize risk control by monitoring the SSVs in real time, herein, the quantitative analysis of SRE is essential. Besides, some events in the process of SRE are critical to system risk, because they act like the “demarcative points” of safety and accident, and this characteristic makes each of them a key point of risk control. Therefore, analysis of SRE and identification of risk critical events (RCEs) are remarkably meaningful to ensure the system to operate safely. In this context, an event sequence diagram (ESD) based method of SRE analysis and the related Monte Carlo solution are presented; RCE and risk sensitive variable (RSV) are defined, and the corresponding identification methods are also proposed. Finally, the proposed approaches are exemplified with an accident scenario of an aircraft getting into the icing region

  11. Dietary patterns and colorectal cancer risk: a meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Yu-Liang; Shu, Long; Zheng, Pei-Fen; Zhang, Xiao-Yan; Si, Cai-Juan; Yu, Xiao-Long; Gao, Wei; Zhang, Lun

    2017-05-01

    The analysis of dietary patterns has recently drawn considerable attention as a method of investigating the association between the overall whole diet and the risk of colorectal cancer. However, the results have yielded conflicting findings. Here, we carried out a meta-analysis to identify the association between dietary patterns and the risk of colorectal cancer. A total of 40 studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria and were included in this meta-analysis. The highest category of 'healthy' dietary pattern compared with the lowest category was apparently associated with a decreased risk for colorectal cancer [odds ratio (OR)=0.75; confidence interval (CI): 0.68-0.83; Pcolorectal cancer was shown for the highest compared with the lowest category of a 'western-style' dietary pattern (OR=1.40; CI: 1.26-1.56; Pcolorectal cancer in the highest compared with the lowest category of 'alcohol-consumption' pattern (OR=1.44; CI: 1.13-1.82; P=0.003). The results of this meta-analysis indicate that a 'healthy' dietary pattern may decrease the risk of colorectal cancer, whereas 'western-style' and 'alcohol-consumption' patterns may increase the risk of colorectal cancer.

  12. General overview and perspectives of risk analysis in Cuba

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Torres, A.; Rodriguez, J.M.; Vilaragut, J.J.; Valhuerdi, C.

    1995-01-01

    This papers shows a general overview of the application of risk analysis techniques in some potentially dangerous industries in Cuba. This paper summarizes the experiences of these sectors in the risk analysis with different specification levels and different approaches. Some experiences in the application of these analyses in the nuclear and aeronautical industries are shown. Some analyses of consequences in cases of accidents in the chemical industries in order to work due and improve emergency plans for responding to accident situations are presented in a more succinct manner. Also the perspectives to develop some of these tendencies and cooperation forms between them are summarized

  13. RISK ANALYSIS FOR SHIP CONVERTING PROJECT ACCOMPLISHMENT (Case study of KRI KP Converting Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dimas Endro W

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Ship converting has become as prospective activity in ship building area. Operational and economical aspect are the most dominant rationale. Baseon a new fuction of converted ship, a task list which contain several jobs that must be done is listed. This accomplishment schedule not only contain a task list, but also duration for certain job title. In practical apllication job duration is maintained based on experience of project manager.  Further more, total accomplish duration is setted as time accomplishment for the project. This setted time has become reference for the project bid. Occasionaly, if accomplishment time which offered is strict, than schedule slip become as potencial nightmare. For this situation, project manager has had a cristal clearconsideration to select a proper decision wheter he will take the tender offer or not. practically, project mananger has layed on his experience to handle previous project and face  penalty if the project delayed. This paper focussed on how to measure tender offer based on risk analysis, specially for converted ship tender which has a strike time accomplishment.A new application method to analysis proposed tender based on time and penalty parameter has become a topic of this paper.

  14. Cardiometabolic risk in Canada: a detailed analysis and position paper by the cardiometabolic risk working group.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leiter, Lawrence A; Fitchett, David H; Gilbert, Richard E; Gupta, Milan; Mancini, G B John; McFarlane, Philip A; Ross, Robert; Teoh, Hwee; Verma, Subodh; Anand, Sonia; Camelon, Kathryn; Chow, Chi-Ming; Cox, Jafna L; Després, Jean-Pierre; Genest, Jacques; Harris, Stewart B; Lau, David C W; Lewanczuk, Richard; Liu, Peter P; Lonn, Eva M; McPherson, Ruth; Poirier, Paul; Qaadri, Shafiq; Rabasa-Lhoret, Rémi; Rabkin, Simon W; Sharma, Arya M; Steele, Andrew W; Stone, James A; Tardif, Jean-Claude; Tobe, Sheldon; Ur, Ehud

    2011-01-01

    The concepts of "cardiometabolic risk," "metabolic syndrome," and "risk stratification" overlap and relate to the atherogenic process and development of type 2 diabetes. There is confusion about what these terms mean and how they can best be used to improve our understanding of cardiovascular disease treatment and prevention. With the objectives of clarifying these concepts and presenting practical strategies to identify and reduce cardiovascular risk in multiethnic patient populations, the Cardiometabolic Working Group reviewed the evidence related to emerging cardiovascular risk factors and Canadian guideline recommendations in order to present a detailed analysis and consolidated approach to the identification and management of cardiometabolic risk. The concepts related to cardiometabolic risk, pathophysiology, and strategies for identification and management (including health behaviours, pharmacotherapy, and surgery) in the multiethnic Canadian population are presented. "Global cardiometabolic risk" is proposed as an umbrella term for a comprehensive list of existing and emerging factors that predict cardiovascular disease and/or type 2 diabetes. Health behaviour interventions (weight loss, physical activity, diet, smoking cessation) in people identified at high cardiometabolic risk are of critical importance given the emerging crisis of obesity and the consequent epidemic of type 2 diabetes. Vascular protective measures (health behaviours for all patients and pharmacotherapy in appropriate patients) are essential to reduce cardiometabolic risk, and there is growing consensus that a multidisciplinary approach is needed to adequately address cardiometabolic risk factors. Health care professionals must also consider risk factors related to ethnicity in order to appropriately evaluate everyone in their diverse patient populations. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Analysis of risk factors and risk assessment for ischemic stroke recurrence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiu-ying LONG

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Objective To screen the risk factors for recurrence of ischemic stroke and to assess the risk of recurrence. Methods Essen Stroke Risk Score (ESRS was used to evaluate the risk of recurrence in 176 patients with ischemic stroke (96 cases of first onset and 80 cases of recurrence. Univariate and multivariate stepwise Logistic regression analysis was used to screen risk factors for recurrence of ischemic stroke.  Results There were significant differences between first onset group and recurrence group on age, the proportion of > 75 years old, hypertension, diabetes, coronary heart disease, peripheral angiopathy, transient ischemic attack (TIA or ischemic stroke, drinking and ESRS score (P < 0.05, for all. First onset group included one case of ESRS 0 (1.04%, 8 cases of 1 (8.33%, 39 cases of 2 (40.63%, 44 cases of 3 (45.83%, 4 cases of 4 (4.17%. Recurrence group included 2 cases of ESRS 3 (2.50%, 20 cases of 4 (25% , 37 cases of 5 (46.25% , 18 cases of 6 (22.50% , 3 cases of 7 (3.75% . There was significant difference between 2 groups (Z = -11.376, P = 0.000. Logistic regression analysis showed ESRS > 3 score was independent risk factor for recurrence of ischemic stroke (OR = 31.324, 95%CI: 3.934-249.430; P = 0.001.  Conclusions ESRS > 3 score is the independent risk factor for recurrence of ischemic stroke. It is important to strengthen risk assessment of recurrence of ischemic stroke. To screen and control risk factors is the key to secondary prevention of ischemic stroke. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1672-6731.2016.07.011

  16. The prostate cancer risk stratification (ProCaRS) project: Recursive partitioning risk stratification analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodrigues, George; Lukka, Himu; Warde, Padraig; Brundage, Michael; Souhami, Luis; Crook, Juanita; Cury, Fabio; Catton, Charles; Mok, Gary; Martin, Andre-Guy; Vigneault, Eric; Morris, Jim; Warner, Andrew; Gonzalez Maldonado, Sandra; Pickles, Tom

    2013-01-01

    Background: The Genitourinary Radiation Oncologists of Canada (GUROC) published a three-group risk stratification (RS) system to assist prostate cancer decision-making in 2001. The objective of this project is to use the ProCaRS database to statistically model the predictive accuracy and clinical utility of a proposed new multi-group RS schema. Methods: The RS analyses utilized the ProCaRS database that consists of 7974 patients from four Canadian institutions. Recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) was utilized to explore the sub-stratification of groups defined by the existing three-group GUROC scheme. 10-fold cross-validated C-indices and the Net Reclassification Index were both used to assess multivariable models and compare the predictive accuracy of existing and proposed RS systems, respectively. Results: The recursive partitioning analysis has suggested that the existing GUROC classification system could be altered to accommodate as many as six separate and statistical unique groups based on differences in BFFS (C-index 0.67 and AUC 0.70). GUROC low-risk patients would be divided into new favorable-low and low-risk groups based on PSA ⩽6 and PSA >6. GUROC intermediate-risk patients can be subclassified into low-intermediate and high-intermediate groups. GUROC high-intermediate-risk is defined as existing GUROC intermediate-risk with PSA >=10 AND either T2b/c disease or T1T2a disease with Gleason 7. GUROC high-risk patients would be subclassified into an additional extreme-risk group (GUROC high-risk AND (positive cores ⩾87.5% OR PSA >30). Conclusions: Proposed RS subcategories have been identified by a RPA of the ProCaRS database

  17. [Competitive karate and the risk of HIV infection--review, risk analysis and risk minimizing strategies].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller-Rath, R; Mumme, T; Miltner, O; Skobel, E

    2004-03-01

    Bleeding facial injuries are not uncommon in competitive karate. Nevertheless, the risk of an infection with HIV is extremely low. Guidelines about the prevention of HIV infections are presented. Especially in contact sports and martial arts the athletes, judges and staff have to recognize and employ these recommendations. Bleeding wounds of the hands due to contact with the opponents teeth can be minimized by fist padding.

  18. Birth weight differences between those offered financial voucher incentives for verified smoking cessation and control participants enrolled in the Cessation in Pregnancy Incentives Trial (CPIT), employing an intuitive approach and a Complier Average Causal Effects (CACE) analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McConnachie, Alex; Haig, Caroline; Sinclair, Lesley; Bauld, Linda; Tappin, David M

    2017-07-20

    The Cessation in Pregnancy Incentives Trial (CPIT), which offered financial incentives for smoking cessation during pregnancy showed a clinically and statistically significant improvement in cessation. However, infant birth weight was not seen to be affected. This study re-examines birth weight using an intuitive and a complier average causal effects (CACE) method to uncover important information missed by intention-to-treat analysis. CPIT offered financial incentives up to £400 to pregnant smokers to quit. With incentives, 68 women (23.1%) were confirmed non-smokers at primary outcome, compared to 25 (8.7%) without incentives, a difference of 14.3% (Fisher test, p financial incentives to quit. Viewed in this way, the overall birth weight gain with incentives is attributable only to potential quitters. We compared an intuitive approach to a CACE analysis. Mean birth weight of potential quitters in the incentives intervention group (who therefore quit) was 3338 g compared with potential quitters in the control group (who did not quit) 3193 g. The difference attributable to incentives, was 3338 - 3193 = 145 g (95% CI -617, +803). The mean difference in birth weight between the intervention and control groups was 21 g, and the difference in the proportion who managed to quit was 14.3%. Since the intervention consisted of the offer of incentives to quit smoking, the intervention was received by all women in the intervention group. However, "compliance" was successfully quitting with incentives, and the CACE analysis yielded an identical result, causal birth weight increase 21 g ÷ 0.143 = 145 g. Policy makers have great difficulty giving pregnant women money to stop smoking. This study indicates that a small clinically insignificant improvement in average birth weight is likely to hide an important clinically significant increase in infants born to pregnant smokers who want to stop but cannot achieve smoking cessation without the addition of financial

  19. Benefits and Limitations of Real Options Analysis for the Practice of River Flood Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kind, Jarl M.; Baayen, Jorn H.; Botzen, W. J. Wouter

    2018-04-01

    Decisions on long-lived flood risk management (FRM) investments are complex because the future is uncertain. Flexibility and robustness can be used to deal with future uncertainty. Real options analysis (ROA) provides a welfare-economics framework to design and evaluate robust and flexible FRM strategies under risk or uncertainty. Although its potential benefits are large, ROA is hardly used in todays' FRM practice. In this paper, we investigate benefits and limitations of a ROA, by applying it to a realistic FRM case study for an entire river branch. We illustrate how ROA identifies optimal short-term investments and values future options. We develop robust dike investment strategies and value the flexibility offered by additional room for the river measures. We benchmark the results of ROA against those of a standard cost-benefit analysis and show ROA's potential policy implications. The ROA for a realistic case requires a high level of geographical detail, a large ensemble of scenarios, and the inclusion of stakeholders' preferences. We found several limitations of applying the ROA. It is complex. In particular, relevant sources of uncertainty need to be recognized, quantified, integrated, and discretized in scenarios, requiring subjective choices and expert judgment. Decision trees have to be generated and stakeholders' preferences have to be translated into decision rules. On basis of this study, we give general recommendations to use high discharge scenarios for the design of measures with high fixed costs and few alternatives. Lower scenarios may be used when alternatives offer future flexibility.

  20. Risk analysis by FMEA as an element of analytical validation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Leeuwen, J F; Nauta, M J; de Kaste, D; Odekerken-Rombouts, Y M C F; Oldenhof, M T; Vredenbregt, M J; Barends, D M

    2009-12-05

    We subjected a Near-Infrared (NIR) analytical procedure used for screening drugs on authenticity to a Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA), including technical risks as well as risks related to human failure. An FMEA team broke down the NIR analytical method into process steps and identified possible failure modes for each step. Each failure mode was ranked on estimated frequency of occurrence (O), probability that the failure would remain undetected later in the process (D) and severity (S), each on a scale of 1-10. Human errors turned out to be the most common cause of failure modes. Failure risks were calculated by Risk Priority Numbers (RPNs)=O x D x S. Failure modes with the highest RPN scores were subjected to corrective actions and the FMEA was repeated, showing reductions in RPN scores and resulting in improvement indices up to 5.0. We recommend risk analysis as an addition to the usual analytical validation, as the FMEA enabled us to detect previously unidentified risks.

  1. A Big Data Analysis Approach for Rail Failure Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamshidi, Ali; Faghih-Roohi, Shahrzad; Hajizadeh, Siamak; Núñez, Alfredo; Babuska, Robert; Dollevoet, Rolf; Li, Zili; De Schutter, Bart

    2017-08-01

    Railway infrastructure monitoring is a vital task to ensure rail transportation safety. A rail failure could result in not only a considerable impact on train delays and maintenance costs, but also on safety of passengers. In this article, the aim is to assess the risk of a rail failure by analyzing a type of rail surface defect called squats that are detected automatically among the huge number of records from video cameras. We propose an image processing approach for automatic detection of squats, especially severe types that are prone to rail breaks. We measure the visual length of the squats and use them to model the failure risk. For the assessment of the rail failure risk, we estimate the probability of rail failure based on the growth of squats. Moreover, we perform severity and crack growth analyses to consider the impact of rail traffic loads on defects in three different growth scenarios. The failure risk estimations are provided for several samples of squats with different crack growth lengths on a busy rail track of the Dutch railway network. The results illustrate the practicality and efficiency of the proposed approach. © 2017 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

  2. Rocky Flats Plant Live-Fire Range Risk Analysis Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nicolosi, S.L.; Rodriguez, M.A.

    1994-04-01

    The objective of the Live-Fire Range Risk Analysis Report (RAR) is to provide an authorization basis for operation as required by DOE 5480.16. The existing Live-Fire Range does not have a safety analysis-related authorization basis. EG&G Rocky Flats, Inc. has worked with DOE and its representatives to develop a format and content description for development of an RAR for the Live-Fire Range. Development of the RAR is closely aligned with development of the design for a baffle system to control risks from errant projectiles. DOE 5480.16 requires either an RAR or a safety analysis report (SAR) for live-fire ranges. An RAR rather than a SAR was selected in order to gain flexibility to more closely address the safety analysis and conduct of operation needs for a live-fire range in a cost-effective manner.

  3. Quantitative risk analysis of a space shuttle subsystem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frank, M.V.

    1989-01-01

    This paper reports that in an attempt to investigate methods for risk management other than qualitative analysis techniques, NASA has funded pilot study quantitative risk analyses for space shuttle subsystems. The authors performed one such study of two shuttle subsystems with McDonnell Douglas Astronautics Company. The subsystems were the auxiliary power units (APU) on the orbiter, and the hydraulic power units on the solid rocket booster. The technology and results of the APU study are presented in this paper. Drawing from a rich in-flight database as well as from a wealth of tests and analyses, the study quantitatively assessed the risk of APU-initiated scenarios on the shuttle during all phases of a flight mission. Damage states of interest were loss of crew/vehicle, aborted mission, and launch scrub. A quantitative risk analysis approach to deciding on important items for risk management was contrasted with the current NASA failure mode and effects analysis/critical item list approach

  4. Systematic analysis of natural hazards along infrastructure networks using a GIS-tool for risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baruffini, Mirko

    2010-05-01

    Due to the topographical conditions in Switzerland, the highways and the railway lines are frequently exposed to natural hazards as rockfalls, debris flows, landslides, avalanches and others. With the rising incidence of those natural hazards, protection measures become an important political issue. However, they are costly, and maximal protection is most probably not economically feasible. Furthermore risks are distributed in space and time. Consequently, important decision problems to the public sector decision makers are derived. This asks for a high level of surveillance and preservation along the transalpine lines. Efficient protection alternatives can be obtained consequently considering the concept of integral risk management. Risk analysis, as the central part of risk management, has become gradually a generally accepted approach for the assessment of current and future scenarios (Loat & Zimmermann 2004). The procedure aims at risk reduction which can be reached by conventional mitigation on one hand and the implementation of land-use planning on the other hand: a combination of active and passive mitigation measures is applied to prevent damage to buildings, people and infrastructures. With a Geographical Information System adapted to run with a tool developed to manage Risk analysis it is possible to survey the data in time and space, obtaining an important system for managing natural risks. As a framework, we adopt the Swiss system for risk analysis of gravitational natural hazards (BUWAL 1999). It offers a complete framework for the analysis and assessment of risks due to natural hazards, ranging from hazard assessment for gravitational natural hazards, such as landslides, collapses, rockfalls, floodings, debris flows and avalanches, to vulnerability assessment and risk analysis, and the integration into land use planning at the cantonal and municipality level. The scheme is limited to the direct consequences of natural hazards. Thus, we develop a

  5. The characterisation and evaluation of uncertainty in probabilistic risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parry, G.W.; Winter, P.W.

    1980-10-01

    The sources of uncertainty in probabilistic risk analysis are discussed using the event/fault tree methodology as an example. The role of statistics in quantifying these uncertainties is investigated. A class of uncertainties is identified which is, at present, unquantifiable, using either classical or Bayesian statistics. It is argued that Bayesian statistics is the more appropriate vehicle for the probabilistic analysis of rare events and a short review is given with some discussion on the representation of ignorance. (author)

  6. Computer code for general analysis of radon risks (GARR)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ginevan, M.

    1984-09-01

    This document presents a computer model for general analysis of radon risks that allow the user to specify a large number of possible models with a small number of simple commands. The model is written in a version of BASIC which conforms closely to the American National Standards Institute (ANSI) definition for minimal BASIC and thus is readily modified for use on a wide variety of computers and, in particular, microcomputers. Model capabilities include generation of single-year life tables from 5-year abridged data, calculation of multiple-decrement life tables for lung cancer for the general population, smokers, and nonsmokers, and a cohort lung cancer risk calculation that allows specification of level and duration of radon exposure, the form of the risk model, and the specific population assumed at risk. 36 references, 8 figures, 7 tables

  7. Downside Risk analysis applied to the Hedge Funds universe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perelló, Josep

    2007-09-01

    Hedge Funds are considered as one of the portfolio management sectors which shows a fastest growing for the past decade. An optimal Hedge Fund management requires an appropriate risk metrics. The classic CAPM theory and its Ratio Sharpe fail to capture some crucial aspects due to the strong non-Gaussian character of Hedge Funds statistics. A possible way out to this problem while keeping the CAPM simplicity is the so-called Downside Risk analysis. One important benefit lies in distinguishing between good and bad returns, that is: returns greater or lower than investor's goal. We revisit most popular Downside Risk indicators and provide new analytical results on them. We compute these measures by taking the Credit Suisse/Tremont Investable Hedge Fund Index Data and with the Gaussian case as a benchmark. In this way, an unusual transversal lecture of the existing Downside Risk measures is provided.

  8. A Review and Comparative Analysis of Security Risks and Safety Measures of Mobile Health Apps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karen Scott

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available In line with a patient-centred model of healthcare, Mobile Health applications (mhealth apps provide convenient and equitable access to health and well-being resources and programs that can enable consumers to monitor their health related problems, understand specific medical conditions and attain personal fitness goals. This increase in access and control comes with an increase in risk and responsibility to identify and manage the associated risks, such as the privacy and security of consumers’ personal and health information. Based on a review of the literature, this paper identifies a set of risk and safety features for evaluating mHealth apps and uses those features to conduct a comparative analysis of the 20 most popular mHealth apps. The comparative analysis reveals that current mHealth apps do pose a risk to consumers. To address the safety and privacy concerns, recommendations to consumers and app developers are offered together with consideration of mHealth app future trends.

  9. Association between MTHFR polymorphisms and acute myeloid leukemia risk: a meta-analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu-Tao Qin

    Full Text Available Previous observational studies investigating the association between methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR polymorphisms and acute myeloid leukemia risk (AML have yielded inconsistent results. The aim of this study is to derive a more precise estimation of the association between MTHFR (C677T and A1298C polymorphisms and acute myeloid leukemia risk. PubMed and Embase databases were systematically searched to identify relevant studies from their inception to August 2013. Odds ratios (ORs with 95% confidence intervals (CIs were the metric of choice. Thirteen studies were selected for C677T polymorphism (1838 cases and 5318 controls and 9 studies (1335 patients and 4295 controls for A1298C polymorphism. Overall, pooled results showed that C677T polymorphism was not significant associated with AML risk(OR, 0.98-1.04; 95% CI, 0.86-0.92 to 1.09-1.25. Similar results were observed for the A1298C polymorphism and in subgroup analysis. All comparisons revealed no substantial heterogeneity nor did we detect evidence of publication bias. In summary, this meta-analysis provides evidence that MTHFR polymorphisms were not associated with AML risk. Further investigations are needed to offer better insight into the role of these polymorphisms in AML carcinogenesis.

  10. Quantitative risk analysis of the pipeline GASDUC III - solutions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Silva, Edmilson P.; Bettoni, Izabel Cristina [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    In this work the quantitative risks analysis to the external public of the Pipeline Cabiunas - REDUC (GASDUC III), with 180 km, linking the municipalities of Macae and Duque de Caxias - RJ was performed by the Companies PETROBRAS and ITSEMAP do Brasil. In addition to the large diameter of the pipeline 38 inches and high operation pressure 100 kgf/cm{sup 2} operating with natural gas through several densely populated areas. Initially, the individual risk contours were calculated without considering mitigating measures, obtaining as result the individual risk contour with frequencies of 1x10{sup -06} per year involving sensitive occupations and therefore considered unacceptable when compared with the INEA criterion. The societal risk was calculated for eight densely populated areas and their respective FN-curves situated below the advised limit established by INEA, except for two areas that required the proposal of additional mitigating measures to the reduction of societal risk. Regarding to societal risk, the FN-curve should be below the advised limit presented in the Technical Instruction of INEA. The individual and societal risk were reassessed incorporating some mitigating measures and the results situated below the advised limits established by INEA and PETROBRAS has obtained the license for installation of the pipeline. (author)

  11. Cancer risk factors in Korean news media: a content analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kye, Su Yeon; Kwon, Jeong Hyun; Kim, Yong-Chan; Shim, Minsun; Kim, Jee Hyun; Cho, Hyunsoon; Jung, Kyu Won; Park, Keeho

    2015-01-01

    Little is known about the news coverage of cancer risk factors in Korea. This study aimed to examine how the news media encompasses a wide array of content regarding cancer risk factors and related cancer sites, and investigate whether news coverage of cancer risk factors is congruent with the actual prevalence of the disease. A content analysis was conducted on 1,138 news stories covered during a 5-year period between 2008 and 2012. The news stories were selected from nationally representative media in Korea. Information was collected about cancer risk factors and cancer sites. Of various cancer risk factors, occupational and environmental exposures appeared most frequently in the news. Breast cancer was mentioned the most in relation to cancer sites. Breast, cervical, prostate, and skin cancer were overrepresented in the media in comparison to incidence and mortality cases, whereas lung, thyroid, liver, and stomach cancer were underrepresented. To our knowledge, this research is the first investigation dealing with news coverage about cancer risk factors in Korea. The study findings show occupational and environmental exposures are emphasized more than personal lifestyle factors; further, more prevalent cancers in developed countries have greater media coverage, not reflecting the realities of the disease. The findings may help health journalists and other health storytellers to develop effective ways to communicate cancer risk factors.

  12. Analysis of coastal protection under rising flood risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Megan J. Lickley

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Infrastructure located along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts is exposed to rising risk of flooding from sea level rise, increasing storm surge, and subsidence. In these circumstances coastal management commonly based on 100-year flood maps assuming current climatology is no longer adequate. A dynamic programming cost–benefit analysis is applied to the adaptation decision, illustrated by application to an energy facility in Galveston Bay. Projections of several global climate models provide inputs to estimates of the change in hurricane and storm surge activity as well as the increase in sea level. The projected rise in physical flood risk is combined with estimates of flood damage and protection costs in an analysis of the multi-period nature of adaptation choice. The result is a planning method, using dynamic programming, which is appropriate for investment and abandonment decisions under rising coastal risk.

  13. Analysis of dependent failures in risk assessment and reliability evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleming, K.N.; Mosleh, A.; Kelley, A.P. Jr.; Gas-Cooled Reactors Associates, La Jolla, CA)

    1983-01-01

    The ability to estimate the risk of potential reactor accidents is largely determined by the ability to analyze statistically dependent multiple failures. The importance of dependent failures has been indicated in recent probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) studies as well as in reports of reactor operating experiences. This article highlights the importance of several different types of dependent failures from the perspective of the risk and reliability analyst and provides references to the methods and data available for their analysis. In addition to describing the current state of the art, some recent advances, pitfalls, misconceptions, and limitations of some approaches to dependent failure analysis are addressed. A summary is included of the discourse on this subject, which is presented in the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers/American Nuclear Society PRA Procedures Guide

  14. Analysis of Historical Rainfall Data and Associated Risks on Rain ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    distribution over the last six decades and tries to do a number of weather induced risk analysis in relation to different rainfall events that has special importance to the local farmers. Different type of rainfall events over the past six decades was assessed in relation to Ethiopian rain fed” tef” production. Tef is an important ...

  15. Yucca Mountain transportation routes: Preliminary characterization and risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Souleyrette, R.R. II; Sathisan, S.K.; di Bartolo, R.

    1991-01-01

    This report presents appendices related to the preliminary assessment and risk analysis for high-level radioactive waste transportation routes to the proposed Yucca Mountain Project repository. Information includes data on population density, traffic volume, ecologically sensitive areas, and accident history

  16. Design of Process Displays based on Risk Analysis Techniques

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paulsen, Jette Lundtang

    -tions. On the basis of her experience with the design of display systems; with risk analysis methods and from 8 years, as an engi-neer-on-shift at a research reactor, the author developed a method to elicit necessary information to the operator. The method, a combination of a Goal-Tree and a Fault-Tree, is described...

  17. Quantitative risk analysis as a basis for emergency planning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yogui, Regiane Tiemi Teruya [Bureau Veritas do Brasil, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Macedo, Eduardo Soares de [Instituto de Pesquisas Tecnologicas (IPT), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    Several environmental accidents happened in Brazil and in the world during the 70's and 80's. This strongly motivated the preparation for emergencies in the chemical and petrochemical industries. Environmental accidents affect the environment and the communities that are neighbor to the industrial facilities. The present study aims at subsidizing and providing orientation to develop Emergency Planning from the data obtained on Quantitative Risk Analysis, elaborated according to the Technical Standard P4.261/03 from CETESB (Sao Paulo Environmental Agency). It was observed, during the development of the research, that the data generated on these studies need a complementation and a deeper analysis, so that it is possible to use them on the Emergency Plans. The main issues that were analyzed and discussed on this study were the reevaluation of hazard identification for the emergency plans, the consequences and vulnerability analysis for the response planning, the risk communication, and the preparation to respond to the emergencies of the communities exposed to manageable risks. As a result, the study intends to improve the interpretation and use of the data deriving from the Quantitative Risk Analysis to develop the emergency plans. (author)

  18. Medicine and ionizing radiation: help cards for risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gauron, C.

    2004-01-01

    Following an inquiry in Ile de France on radiation protection, a scientific committee associating several institutions and different experts has elaborated cards for help to risk analysis. A first series of this cards is published in this issue documents for the labour physician and will be next on Internet. the other fields of medical use will be covered in the future. (N.C.)

  19. [Modular risk analysis for assessing multiple waste sites]: Proceedings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Whelan, G.

    1994-01-01

    This document contains proceedings from the Integrated Planning Workshop from Strategic Planning to Baselining and Other Objectives. Topics discussed include: stakeholder involvement; regulations; future site use planning; site integration and baseline methods; risk analysis in decision making; land uses; and economics in decision making. Individual records have been processed separately for the database

  20. Seismic risk analysis for General Electric Plutonium Facility, Pleasanton, California

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1978-01-01

    This report presents the results of a seismic risk analysis that focuses on all possible sources of seismic activity, with the exception of the postulated Verona Fault. The best estimate curve indicates that the Vallecitos facility will experience 30% g with a return period of roughly 130 years and 60% g with a return period of roughly 700 years

  1. RiskChanges Spatial Decision Support system for the analysis of changing multi-hazard risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Westen, Cees; Zhang, Kaixi; Bakker, Wim; Andrejchenko, Vera; Berlin, Julian; Olyazadeh, Roya; Cristal, Irina

    2015-04-01

    Within the framework of the EU FP7 Marie Curie Project CHANGES and the EU FP7 Copernicus project INCREO a spatial decision support system was developed with the aim to analyse the effect of risk reduction planning alternatives on reducing the risk now and in the future, and support decision makers in selecting the best alternatives. Central to the SDSS are the stakeholders. The envisaged users of the system are organizations involved in planning of risk reduction measures, and that have staff capable of visualizing and analyzing spatial data at a municipal scale. The SDSS should be able to function in different countries with different legal frameworks and with organizations with different mandates. These could be subdivided into Civil protection organization with the mandate to design disaster response plans, Expert organizations with the mandate to design structural risk reduction measures (e.g. dams, dikes, check-dams etc), and planning organizations with the mandate to make land development plans. The SDSS can be used in different ways: analyzing the current level of risk, analyzing the best alternatives for risk reduction, the evaluation of the consequences of possible future scenarios to the risk levels, and the evaluation how different risk reduction alternatives will lead to risk reduction under different future scenarios. The SDSS is developed based on open source software and following open standards, for code as well as for data formats and service interfaces. Code development was based upon open source software as well. The architecture of the system is modular. The various parts of the system are loosely coupled, extensible, using standards for interoperability, flexible and web-based. The Spatial Decision Support System is composed of a number of integrated components. The Risk Assessment component allows to carry out spatial risk analysis, with different degrees of complexity, ranging from simple exposure (overlay of hazard and assets maps) to

  2. Predicting complication risk in spine surgery: a prospective analysis of a novel risk assessment tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veeravagu, Anand; Li, Amy; Swinney, Christian; Tian, Lu; Moraff, Adrienne; Azad, Tej D; Cheng, Ivan; Alamin, Todd; Hu, Serena S; Anderson, Robert L; Shuer, Lawrence; Desai, Atman; Park, Jon; Olshen, Richard A; Ratliff, John K

    2017-07-01

    OBJECTIVE The ability to assess the risk of adverse events based on known patient factors and comorbidities would provide more effective preoperative risk stratification. Present risk assessment in spine surgery is limited. An adverse event prediction tool was developed to predict the risk of complications after spine surgery and tested on a prospective patient cohort. METHODS The spinal Risk Assessment Tool (RAT), a novel instrument for the assessment of risk for patients undergoing spine surgery that was developed based on an administrative claims database, was prospectively applied to 246 patients undergoing 257 spinal procedures over a 3-month period. Prospectively collected data were used to compare the RAT to the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and the American College of Surgeons National Surgery Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) Surgical Risk Calculator. Study end point was occurrence and type of complication after spine surgery. RESULTS The authors identified 69 patients (73 procedures) who experienced a complication over the prospective study period. Cardiac complications were most common (10.2%). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were calculated to compare complication outcomes using the different assessment tools. Area under the curve (AUC) analysis showed comparable predictive accuracy between the RAT and the ACS NSQIP calculator (0.670 [95% CI 0.60-0.74] in RAT, 0.669 [95% CI 0.60-0.74] in NSQIP). The CCI was not accurate in predicting complication occurrence (0.55 [95% CI 0.48-0.62]). The RAT produced mean probabilities of 34.6% for patients who had a complication and 24% for patients who did not (p = 0.0003). The generated predicted values were stratified into low, medium, and high rates. For the RAT, the predicted complication rate was 10.1% in the low-risk group (observed rate 12.8%), 21.9% in the medium-risk group (observed 31.8%), and 49.7% in the high-risk group (observed 41.2%). The ACS NSQIP calculator consistently

  3. SU-F-T-243: Major Risks in Radiotherapy. A Review Based On Risk Analysis Literature

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    López-Tarjuelo, J; Guasp-Tortajada, M; Iglesias-Montenegro, N; Monasor-Denia, P [Servicio de Radiofísica y Protección Radiológica, Consorcio Hospitalario Provincial de Castellón, Castellón de la Plana, España/Spain (Spain); Bouché-Babiloni, A; Morillo-Macías, V; Ferrer-Albiach, C [Servicio de Oncología Radioterápica, Consorcio Hospitalario Provincial de Castellón, Castellón de la Plana, España/Spain (Spain)

    2016-06-15

    Purpose: We present a literature review of risk analyses in radiotherapy to highlight the most reported risks and facilitate the spread of this valuable information so that professionals can be aware of these major threats before performing their own studies. Methods: We considered studies with at least an estimation of the probability of occurrence of an adverse event (O) and its associated severity (S). They cover external beam radiotherapy, brachytherapy, intraoperative radiotherapy, and stereotactic techniques. We selected only the works containing a detailed ranked series of elements or failure modes and focused on the first fully reported quartile as much. Afterward, we sorted the risk elements according to a regular radiotherapy procedure so that the resulting groups were cited in several works and be ranked in this way. Results: 29 references published between 2007 and February 2016 were studied. Publication trend has been generally rising. The most employed analysis has been the Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA). Among references, we selected 20 works listing 258 ranked risk elements. They were sorted into 31 groups appearing at least in two different works. 11 groups appeared in at least 5 references and 5 groups did it in 7 or more papers. These last sets of risks where choosing another set of images or plan for planning or treating, errors related with contours, errors in patient positioning for treatment, human mistakes when programming treatments, and planning errors. Conclusion: There is a sufficient amount and variety of references for identifying which failure modes or elements should be addressed in a radiotherapy department before attempting a specific analysis. FMEA prevailed, but other studies such as “risk matrix” or “occurrence × severity” analyses can also lead professionals’ efforts. Risk associated with human actions ranks very high; therefore, they should be automated or at least peer-reviewed.

  4. SU-F-T-243: Major Risks in Radiotherapy. A Review Based On Risk Analysis Literature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    López-Tarjuelo, J; Guasp-Tortajada, M; Iglesias-Montenegro, N; Monasor-Denia, P; Bouché-Babiloni, A; Morillo-Macías, V; Ferrer-Albiach, C

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: We present a literature review of risk analyses in radiotherapy to highlight the most reported risks and facilitate the spread of this valuable information so that professionals can be aware of these major threats before performing their own studies. Methods: We considered studies with at least an estimation of the probability of occurrence of an adverse event (O) and its associated severity (S). They cover external beam radiotherapy, brachytherapy, intraoperative radiotherapy, and stereotactic techniques. We selected only the works containing a detailed ranked series of elements or failure modes and focused on the first fully reported quartile as much. Afterward, we sorted the risk elements according to a regular radiotherapy procedure so that the resulting groups were cited in several works and be ranked in this way. Results: 29 references published between 2007 and February 2016 were studied. Publication trend has been generally rising. The most employed analysis has been the Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA). Among references, we selected 20 works listing 258 ranked risk elements. They were sorted into 31 groups appearing at least in two different works. 11 groups appeared in at least 5 references and 5 groups did it in 7 or more papers. These last sets of risks where choosing another set of images or plan for planning or treating, errors related with contours, errors in patient positioning for treatment, human mistakes when programming treatments, and planning errors. Conclusion: There is a sufficient amount and variety of references for identifying which failure modes or elements should be addressed in a radiotherapy department before attempting a specific analysis. FMEA prevailed, but other studies such as “risk matrix” or “occurrence × severity” analyses can also lead professionals’ efforts. Risk associated with human actions ranks very high; therefore, they should be automated or at least peer-reviewed.

  5. Risk factors for deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism after traumatic injury: A competing risks analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Gent, Jan-Michael; Calvo, Richard Yee; Zander, Ashley L; Olson, Erik J; Sise, C Beth; Sise, Michael J; Shackford, Steven R

    2017-12-01

    Venous thromboembolism, including deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and pulmonary embolism (PE), is typically reported as a composite measure of the quality of trauma center care. Given that recent data suggesting postinjury DVT and PE are distinct clinical processes, a better understanding may result from analyzing them as independent, competing events. Using competing risks analysis, we evaluated our hypothesis that the risk factors and timing of postinjury DVT and PE are different. We examined all adult trauma patients admitted to our Level I trauma center from July 2006 to December 2011 who received at least one surveillance duplex ultrasound of the lower extremities and who were at high risk or greater for DVT. Outcomes included DVT and PE events, and time-to-event from admission. We used competing risks analysis to evaluate risk factors for DVT while accounting for PE as a competing event, and vice versa. Of 2,370 patients, 265 (11.2%) had at least one venous thromboembolism event, 235 DVT only, 19 PE only, 11 DVT and PE. Within 2 days of admission, 38% of DVT cases had occurred compared with 26% of PE. Competing risks modeling of DVT as primary event identified older age, severe injury (Injury Severity Score, ≥ 15), mechanical ventilation longer than 4 days, active cancer, history of DVT or PE, major venous repair, male sex, and prophylactic enoxaparin and prophylactic heparin as associated risk factors. Modeling of PE as the primary event showed younger age, nonsevere injury (Injury Severity Score, risk factors for PE and DVT after injury were different, suggesting that they are clinically distinct events that merit independent consideration. Many DVT events occurred early despite prophylaxis, bringing into question the preventability of postinjury DVT. We recommend trauma center quality reporting program measures be revised to account for DVT and PE as unique events. Epidemiologic, level III.

  6. Risk factor screening to identify women requiring oral glucose tolerance testing to diagnose gestational diabetes: A systematic review and meta-analysis and analysis of two pregnancy cohorts.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diane Farrar

    Full Text Available Easily identifiable risk factors including: obesity and ethnicity at high risk of diabetes are commonly used to indicate which women should be offered the oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT to diagnose gestational diabetes (GDM. Evidence regarding these risk factors is limited however. We conducted a systematic review (SR and meta-analysis and individual participant data (IPD analysis to evaluate the performance of risk factors in identifying women with GDM.We searched MEDLINE, Medline in Process, Embase, Maternity and Infant Care and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL up to August 2016 and conducted additional reference checking. We included observational, cohort, case-control and cross-sectional studies reporting the performance characteristics of risk factors used to identify women at high risk of GDM. We had access to IPD from the Born in Bradford and Atlantic Diabetes in Pregnancy cohorts, all pregnant women in the two cohorts with data on risk factors and OGTT results were included.Twenty nine published studies with 211,698 women for the SR and a further 14,103 women from two birth cohorts (Born in Bradford and the Atlantic Diabetes in Pregnancy study for the IPD analysis were included. Six studies assessed the screening performance of guidelines; six examined combinations of risk factors; eight evaluated the number of risk factors and nine examined prediction models or scores. Meta-analysis using data from published studies suggests that irrespective of the method used, risk factors do not identify women with GDM well. Using IPD and combining risk factors to produce the highest sensitivities, results in low specificities (and so higher false positives. Strategies that use the risk factors of age (>25 or >30 and BMI (>25 or 30 perform as well as other strategies with additional risk factors included.Risk factor screening methods are poor predictors of which pregnant women will be diagnosed with GDM. A simple

  7. Key attributes of the SAPHIRE risk and reliability analysis software for risk-informed probabilistic applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, Curtis; Knudsen, James; Kvarfordt, Kellie; Wood, Ted

    2008-01-01

    The Idaho National Laboratory is a primary developer of probabilistic risk and reliability analysis (PRRA) tools, dating back over 35 years. Evolving from mainframe-based software, the current state-of-the-practice has led to the creation of the SAPHIRE software. Currently, agencies such as the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the National Aeronautics and Aerospace Agency, the Department of Energy, and the Department of Defense use version 7 of the SAPHIRE software for many of their risk-informed activities. In order to better understand and appreciate the power of software as part of risk-informed applications, we need to recall that our current analysis methods and solution methods have built upon pioneering work done 30-40 years ago. We contrast this work with the current capabilities in the SAPHIRE analysis package. As part of this discussion, we provide information for both the typical features and special analysis capabilities, which are available. We also present the application and results typically found with state-of-the-practice PRRA models. By providing both a high-level and detailed look at the SAPHIRE software, we give a snapshot in time for the current use of software tools in a risk-informed decision arena

  8. A scenario-based procedure for seismic risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kluegel, J.-U.; Mualchin, L.; Panza, G.F.

    2006-12-01

    A new methodology for seismic risk analysis based on probabilistic interpretation of deterministic or scenario-based hazard analysis, in full compliance with the likelihood principle and therefore meeting the requirements of modern risk analysis, has been developed. The proposed methodology can easily be adjusted to deliver its output in a format required for safety analysts and civil engineers. The scenario-based approach allows the incorporation of all available information collected in a geological, seismotectonic and geotechnical database of the site of interest as well as advanced physical modelling techniques to provide a reliable and robust deterministic design basis for civil infrastructures. The robustness of this approach is of special importance for critical infrastructures. At the same time a scenario-based seismic hazard analysis allows the development of the required input for probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) as required by safety analysts and insurance companies. The scenario-based approach removes the ambiguity in the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) which relies on the projections of Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) equation. The problems in the validity of G-R projections, because of incomplete to total absence of data for making the projections, are still unresolved. Consequently, the information from G-R must not be used in decisions for design of critical structures or critical elements in a structure. The scenario-based methodology is strictly based on observable facts and data and complemented by physical modelling techniques, which can be submitted to a formalised validation process. By means of sensitivity analysis, knowledge gaps related to lack of data can be dealt with easily, due to the limited amount of scenarios to be investigated. The proposed seismic risk analysis can be used with confidence for planning, insurance and engineering applications. (author)

  9. Risk Assessment of Healthcare Waste by Preliminary Hazard Analysis Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pouran Morovati

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Introduction and purpose: Improper management of healthcare waste (HCW can pose considerable risks to human health and the environment and cause serious problems in developing countries such as Iran. In this study, we sought to determine the hazards of HCW in the public hospitals affiliated to Abadan School of Medicine using the preliminary hazard analysis (PHA method. Methods: In this descriptive and analytic study, health risk assessment of HCW in government hospitals affiliated to Abadan School of Medicine (4 public hospitals was carried out by using PHA in the summer of  2016. Results: We noted the high risk of sharps and infectious wastes. Considering the dual risk of injury and disease transmission, sharps were classified in the very high-risk group, and pharmaceutical and chemical and radioactive wastes were classified in the medium-risk group. Sharps posed the highest risk, while pharmaceutical and chemical wastes had the lowest risk. Among the various stages of waste management, the waste treatment stage was the most hazardous in all the studied hospitals. Conclusion: To diminish the risks associated with healthcare waste management in the studied hospitals, adequate training of healthcare workers and care providers, provision of suitable personal protective and transportation equipment, and supervision of the environmental health manager of hospitals should be considered by the authorities.  

  10. 76 FR 76103 - Privacy Act; Notice of Proposed Rulemaking: State-78, Risk Analysis and Management Records

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-06

    ... Rulemaking: State-78, Risk Analysis and Management Records SUMMARY: Notice is hereby given that the... portions of the Risk Analysis and Management (RAM) Records, State-78, system of records contain criminal...) * * * (2) * * * Risk Analysis and Management Records, STATE-78. * * * * * (b) * * * (1) * * * Risk Analysis...

  11. The integration methods of fuzzy fault mode and effect analysis and fault tree analysis for risk analysis of yogurt production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aprilia, Ayu Rizky; Santoso, Imam; Ekasari, Dhita Murita

    2017-05-01

    Yogurt is a product based on milk, which has beneficial effects for health. The process for the production of yogurt is very susceptible to failure because it involves bacteria and fermentation. For an industry, the risks may cause harm and have a negative impact. In order for a product to be successful and profitable, it requires the analysis of risks that may occur during the production process. Risk analysis can identify the risks in detail and prevent as well as determine its handling, so that the risks can be minimized. Therefore, this study will analyze the risks of the production process with a case study in CV.XYZ. The method used in this research is the Fuzzy Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (fuzzy FMEA) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA). The results showed that there are 6 risks from equipment variables, raw material variables, and process variables. Those risks include the critical risk, which is the risk of a lack of an aseptic process, more specifically if starter yogurt is damaged due to contamination by fungus or other bacteria and a lack of sanitation equipment. The results of quantitative analysis of FTA showed that the highest probability is the probability of the lack of an aseptic process, with a risk of 3.902%. The recommendations for improvement include establishing SOPs (Standard Operating Procedures), which include the process, workers, and environment, controlling the starter of yogurt and improving the production planning and sanitation equipment using hot water immersion.

  12. Risk and sensitivity analysis in relation to external events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alzbutas, R.; Urbonas, R.; Augutis, J.

    2001-01-01

    This paper presents risk and sensitivity analysis of external events impacts on the safe operation in general and in particular the Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant safety systems. Analysis is based on the deterministic and probabilistic assumptions and assessment of the external hazards. The real statistic data are used as well as initial external event simulation. The preliminary screening criteria are applied. The analysis of external event impact on the NPP safe operation, assessment of the event occurrence, sensitivity analysis, and recommendations for safety improvements are performed for investigated external hazards. Such events as aircraft crash, extreme rains and winds, forest fire and flying parts of the turbine are analysed. The models are developed and probabilities are calculated. As an example for sensitivity analysis the model of aircraft impact is presented. The sensitivity analysis takes into account the uncertainty features raised by external event and its model. Even in case when the external events analysis show rather limited danger, the sensitivity analysis can determine the highest influence causes. These possible variations in future can be significant for safety level and risk based decisions. Calculations show that external events cannot significantly influence the safety level of the Ignalina NPP operation, however the events occurrence and propagation can be sufficiently uncertain.(author)

  13. Safety- and Risk Analysis Activities in Chemical Industry in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kozine, Igor; Duijm, Nijs Jan; Lauridsen Kurt

    2001-01-01

    The current paper gives an overview of the legislation and the methods used in safety and risk management in the chemical industry within Europe and in particular within the European Union. The paper is based on a report that has been written for the SOS-1 project under the Nordic nuclear safety research (NKS). Safety- and risk-related matters in the process industry, in particular, in chemical, within the EU are subject to consideration at three levels: (1) EU legislation, (2) European/intemational standardisation, and (3) socio-economic analysis. EC Directives define the 'essential requirements', e.g., protection of health and safety, that must be fulfilled when goods are placed on the market or some industry is put into operation. The European standards bodies (CEN, CENELEC and ETSI) have the task of establishing the corresponding technical specifications, meeting the essential requirements of the Directives, compliance with which will provide a presumption of conformity with the essential requirements. Such specifications are referred to as 'harmonised standards'. Compliance with harmonised standards remains voluntary, and manufacturers are free to choose any other technical solution that provides compliance with the essential requirements. This view is stated in the 'New Approach' to technical harmonisation and standardisation (details can be found on the web page: http://europe.eu.int/comm/enterprise/newapproach/standardization/index .html). Standardisation as well as the regulation of technical risks is increasingly being undertaken at European or international level. The European legislator limits its role to the affirmation of overall objectives, and leaves it to the economic players to draw up the technical procedures and standards to specify in detail the ways and means of attaining them. Many countries have introduced requirements that new legislation and/or administrative regulations be subject to socio-economic analysis. In this respect there is a

  14. Risk analysis of analytical validations by probabilistic modification of FMEA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barends, D M; Oldenhof, M T; Vredenbregt, M J; Nauta, M J

    2012-05-01

    Risk analysis is a valuable addition to validation of an analytical chemistry process, enabling not only detecting technical risks, but also risks related to human failures. Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) can be applied, using a categorical risk scoring of the occurrence, detection and severity of failure modes, and calculating the Risk Priority Number (RPN) to select failure modes for correction. We propose a probabilistic modification of FMEA, replacing the categorical scoring of occurrence and detection by their estimated relative frequency and maintaining the categorical scoring of severity. In an example, the results of traditional FMEA of a Near Infrared (NIR) analytical procedure used for the screening of suspected counterfeited tablets are re-interpretated by this probabilistic modification of FMEA. Using this probabilistic modification of FMEA, the frequency of occurrence of undetected failure mode(s) can be estimated quantitatively, for each individual failure mode, for a set of failure modes, and the full analytical procedure. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Risk analysis for autonomous underwater vehicle operations in extreme environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brito, Mario Paulo; Griffiths, Gwyn; Challenor, Peter

    2010-12-01

    Autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) are used increasingly to explore hazardous marine environments. Risk assessment for such complex systems is based on subjective judgment and expert knowledge as much as on hard statistics. Here, we describe the use of a risk management process tailored to AUV operations, the implementation of which requires the elicitation of expert judgment. We conducted a formal judgment elicitation process where eight world experts in AUV design and operation were asked to assign a probability of AUV loss given the emergence of each fault or incident from the vehicle's life history of 63 faults and incidents. After discussing methods of aggregation and analysis, we show how the aggregated risk estimates obtained from the expert judgments were used to create a risk model. To estimate AUV survival with mission distance, we adopted a statistical survival function based on the nonparametric Kaplan-Meier estimator. We present theoretical formulations for the estimator, its variance, and confidence limits. We also present a numerical example where the approach is applied to estimate the probability that the Autosub3 AUV would survive a set of missions under Pine Island Glacier, Antarctica in January-March 2009. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

  16. Dynamic risk analysis using bow-tie approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khakzad, Nima; Khan, Faisal; Amyotte, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Accident probability estimation is a common and central step to all quantitative risk assessment methods. Among many techniques available, bow-tie model (BT) is very popular because it represent the accident scenario altogether including causes and consequences. However, it suffers a static structure limiting its application in real-time monitoring and probability updating which are key factors in dynamic risk analysis. The present work is focused on using BT approach in a dynamic environment in which the occurrence probability of accident consequences changes. In this method, on one hand, failure probability of primary events of BT, leading to the top event, are developed using physical reliability models, and constantly revised as physical parameters (e.g., pressure, velocity, dimension, etc) change. And, on the other hand, the failure probability of safety barriers of the BT are periodically updated using Bayes’ theorem as new information becomes available over time. Finally, the resulting, updated BT is used to estimate the posterior probability of the consequences which in turn results in an updated risk profile. - Highlights: ► A methodology is proposed to make bow-tie method adapted for dynamic risk analysis. ► Physical reliability models are used to revise the top event. ► Bayes’ theorem is used to update the probability of safety barriers. ► The number of accidents in sequential time intervals is used to form likelihood function. ► The risk profile is updated for varying physical parameters and for different times.

  17. Advanced risk analysis of systems endangered by ESD

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kiss, Istvan; Szedenik, Norbert; Nemeth, Balint; Gulyas, Attila; Berta, Istvan

    2008-01-01

    Evaluation of industrial processes to determine risk of fire or explosion caused by electrostatic discharge (ESD) is even nowadays qualitative in most cases. Although qualitative analysis significantly helps to make an industrial process safer, it is based on the survey of the process and strongly subjective, depending on the estimation of an expert. Fault tree analysis is a traditional method to quantify the risk; it helps to select optimal protection. However, determination of top event, secondary events and basic events of the fault tree is difficult, especially the quantification of the probabilities of the basic events. In several cases no statistical information is available for most of the events. Using fuzzy membership functions instead of simple numbers for the quantification of probabilities makes it possible to take this uncertainty into consideration. Fuzzy logic based fault tree analysis of chemical processes were made to determine the effect of basic events on the probability of the top event (explosion or fire) and its reliability.

  18. Antepartum Fetal Monitoring and Spectral Analysis of Preterm Birth Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Păsăricără, Alexandru; Nemescu, Dragoş; Arotăriţei, Dragoş; Rotariu, Cristian

    2017-11-01

    The monitoring and analysis of antepartum fetal and maternal recordings is a research area of notable interest due to the relatively high value of preterm birth. The interest stems from the improvement of devices used for monitoring. The current paper presents the spectral analysis of antepartum heart rate recordings conducted during a study in Romania at the Cuza Voda Obstetrics and Gynecology Clinical Hospital from Iasi between 2010 and 2014. The study focuses on normal and preterm birth risk subjects in order to determine differences between these two types or recordings in terms of spectral analysis.

  19. Analysis of competing risk parameters in irradiated prostate cancer patients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mayer, R.; Mayer, E.; Langsenlehner, U.; Hackl, A.; Pummer, K.; Quehenberger, F.; Feigl, G.

    2003-01-01

    Purpose: Retrospective competing risk analysis of prognostic factors in definitive-irradiated prostate cancer patients. Patients and Methods: Data of 652 patients were analyzed according to three age subgroups ( 75 years; Table 1). Pre-RT PSA values (median 13.4 ng/ml) were available for 340 patients. Adjuvant hormone therapy (n = 261) consisted either of orchiectomy (n = 151) or LHRH agonist with/without antiandrogen therapy or, in the early years, diethystilbestrol. Neoadjuvant hormone therapy (n = 31) using LHRH agonists was given 6 months before and during radiotherapy. Results: Biochemical failure was observed in 69/.340 patients, 5 years after biochemical failure, 64.9% of them also had failed clinically. The cumulative incidence of local failure (LF) and distant metastases (DM) was 9.4% and 37.2%, respectively; LF and DM at the same time were seen in 18.2%. On multivariate analysis (Tables 2 and 3), advanced stage (relative risk [RR] 4.54), pre-RT PSA > 20 ng/ml (RR 2.79) and poorly differentiated tumors (RR 2.96) were significant predictors of biochemical failure. Advanced stage increased the risk of LF (RR 2.18), DM (RR 3.66), and prostate cancer death (PCD; RR 4.30). Hormone therapy decreased the risk of biochemical failure (RR 0.67), DM (RR 0.59), and PCD (RR 0.60) without reaching statistical significance. Median follow-up was 7.6 years. Conclusion: Risk of biochemical failure was predicted by pre-RT PSA, stage, and grade; in patients with biochemical failure, the cumulative incidence of death from intercurrent diseases and PCD was 25.0% and 29.2% after 5 years, respectively. The risk of DM and PCD was predicted by stage and grade. Higher age (> 75 years) decreased the relative risk of LF, DM, and PCD significantly. (orig.)

  20. Social dataset analysis and mapping tools for Risk Perception: resilience, people preparation and communication tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters-Guarin, Graciela; Garcia, Carolina; Frigerio, Simone

    2010-05-01

    management, to know in advance the different levels of risk perception and preparedness existing among several sectors of the population. Knowing where the most vulnerable population is located may optimize the use of resources, better direct the initial efforts and organize the evacuation and attention procedures. As part of the CBEWS, a comprehensive survey was applied in the study area to measure, among others features, the levels of risk perception, preparation and information received about natural hazards. After a statistical and direct analysis on a complete social dataset recorded, a spatial information distribution is actually in progress. Based on boundaries features (municipalities and sub-districts) of Italian Institute of Statistics (ISTAT), a local scale background has been granted (a private address level is not accessible for privacy rules so the local districts-ID inside municipality has been the detail level performed) and a spatial location of the surveyed population has been completed. The geometric component has been defined and actually it is possible to create a local distribution of social parameters derived from perception questionnaries results. A lot of raw information and social-statistical analysis offer different mirror and "visual concept" of risk perception. For this reason a concrete complete GeoDB is under working for the complete organization of the dataset. By a technical point of view the environment for data sharing is based on a complete open source web-service environment, to offer manually-made and user-friendly interface to this kind of information. Final aim is to offer different switches of dataset, using the same scale prototype and data hierarchical structure, to provide and compare social location of risk perception in the most detailed level.

  1. A free and open source QGIS plugin for flood risk analysis: FloodRisk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albano, Raffaele; Sole, Aurelia; Mancusi, Leonardo

    2016-04-01

    An analysis of global statistics shows a substantial increase in flood damage over the past few decades. Moreover, it is expected that flood risk will continue to rise due to the combined effect of increasing numbers of people and economic assets in risk-prone areas and the effects of climate change. In order to increase the resilience of European economies and societies, the improvement of risk assessment and management has been pursued in the last years. This results in a wide range of flood analysis models of different complexities with substantial differences in underlying components needed for its implementation, as geographical, hydrological and social differences demand specific approaches in the different countries. At present, it is emerging the need of promote the creation of open, transparent, reliable and extensible tools for a comprehensive, context-specific and applicable flood risk analysis. In this context, the free and open-source Quantum GIS (QGIS) plugin "FloodRisk" is a good starting point to address this objective. The vision of the developers of this free and open source software (FOSS) is to combine the main features of state-of-the-art science, collaboration, transparency and interoperability in an initiative to assess and communicate flood risk worldwide and to assist authorities to facilitate the quality and fairness of flood risk management at multiple scales. Among the scientific community, this type of activity can be labelled as "participatory research", intended as adopting a set of techniques that "are interactive and collaborative" and reproducible, "providing a meaningful research experience that both promotes learning and generates knowledge and research data through a process of guided discovery"' (Albano et al., 2015). Moreover, this FOSS geospatial approach can lowering the financial barriers to understanding risks at national and sub-national levels through a spatio-temporal domain and can provide better and more complete

  2. Sensitivity Analysis of Launch Vehicle Debris Risk Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gee, Ken; Lawrence, Scott L.

    2010-01-01

    As part of an analysis of the loss of crew risk associated with an ascent abort system for a manned launch vehicle, a model was developed to predict the impact risk of the debris resulting from an explosion of the launch vehicle on the crew module. The model consisted of a debris catalog describing the number, size and imparted velocity of each piece of debris, a method to compute the trajectories of the debris and a method to calculate the impact risk given the abort trajectory of the crew module. The model provided a point estimate of the strike probability as a function of the debris catalog, the time of abort and the delay time between the abort and destruction of the launch vehicle. A study was conducted to determine the sensitivity of the strike probability to the various model input parameters and to develop a response surface model for use in the sensitivity analysis of the overall ascent abort risk model. The results of the sensitivity analysis and the response surface model are presented in this paper.

  3. Analysis of risk assessment methods for goods trucking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunyazova A.O.

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available the article considers models of risk assessment that can be applied to cargo transportation, for forecasting possible damage in the form of financial and material costs in order to reduce the percentage of probability of their occurrence. The analysis of risk by the method «Criterion. Event. Rule" is represented. This method is based on the collection of information by various methods, assigning an assessment to the identified risks, ranking and formulating a report on the analysis. It can be carried out as a fully manual mechanical method of information collecting and performing calculations or can be brought to an automated level from data collection to the delivery of finished results (but in this case some nuances that could significantly influence the outcome of the analysis can be ignored. The expert method is of particular importance, since it relies directly on human experience. In this case, a special role is played by the human factor. The collection of information and the assigned assessments to risk groups depend on the extent to which experts agree on this issue. The smaller the fluctuations in the values ​​of the estimates of the experts, the more accurate and optimal the results will be.

  4. Analysis of related risk factors for pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qi-Song Yu

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To explore the related risk factors for pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy to provide a theoretical evidence for effectively preventing the occurrence of pancreatic fistula. Methods: A total of 100 patients who were admitted in our hospital from January, 2012 to January, 2015 and had performed pancreaticoduodenectomy were included in the study. The related risk factors for developing pancreatic fistula were collected for single factor and Logistic multi-factor analysis. Results: Among the included patients, 16 had pancreatic fistula, and the total occurrence rate was 16% (16/100. The single-factor analysis showed that the upper abdominal operation history, preoperative bilirubin, pancreatic texture, pancreatic duct diameter, intraoperative amount of bleeding, postoperative hemoglobin, and application of somatostatin after operation were the risk factors for developing pancreatic fistula (P<0.05. The multi-factor analysis showed that the upper abdominal operation history, the soft pancreatic texture, small pancreatic duct diameter, and low postoperative hemoglobin were the dependent risk factors for developing pancreatic fistula (OR=4.162, 6.104, 5.613, 4.034, P<0.05. Conclusions: The occurrence of pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy is closely associated with the upper abdominal operation history, the soft pancreatic texture, small pancreatic duct diameter, and low postoperative hemoglobin; therefore, effective measures should be taken to reduce the occurrence of pancreatic fistula according to the patients’ own conditions.

  5. A comprehensive risk analysis of coastal zones in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Guanghui; Liu, Yijun; Wang, Hongbing; Wang, Xueying

    2014-03-01

    Although coastal zones occupy an important position in the world development, they face high risks and vulnerability to natural disasters because of their special locations and their high population density. In order to estimate their capability for crisis-response, various models have been established. However, those studies mainly focused on natural factors or conditions, which could not reflect the social vulnerability and regional disparities of coastal zones. Drawing lessons from the experiences of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), this paper presents a comprehensive assessment strategy based on the mechanism of Risk Matrix Approach (RMA), which includes two aspects that are further composed of five second-class indicators. The first aspect, the probability phase, consists of indicators of economic conditions, social development, and living standards, while the second one, the severity phase, is comprised of geographic exposure and natural disasters. After weighing all of the above indicators by applying the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Delphi Method, the paper uses the comprehensive assessment strategy to analyze the risk indices of 50 coastal cities in China. The analytical results are presented in ESRI ArcGis10.1, which generates six different risk maps covering the aspects of economy, society, life, environment, disasters, and an overall assessment of the five areas. Furthermore, the study also investigates the spatial pattern of these risk maps, with detailed discussion and analysis of different risks in coastal cities.

  6. Risk analysis for renewable energy projects due to constraints arising

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prostean, G.; Vasar, C.; Prostean, O.; Vartosu, A.

    2016-02-01

    Starting from the target of the European Union (EU) to use renewable energy in the area that aims a binding target of 20% renewable energy in final energy consumption by 2020, this article illustrates the identification of risks for implementation of wind energy projects in Romania, which could lead to complex technical implications, social and administrative. In specific projects analyzed in this paper were identified critical bottlenecks in the future wind power supply chain and reasonable time periods that may arise. Renewable energy technologies have to face a number of constraints that delayed scaling-up their production process, their transport process, the equipment reliability, etc. so implementing these types of projects requiring complex specialized team, the coordination of which also involve specific risks. The research team applied an analytical risk approach to identify major risks encountered within a wind farm project developed in Romania in isolated regions with different particularities, configured for different geographical areas (hill and mountain locations in Romania). Identification of major risks was based on the conceptual model set up for the entire project implementation process. Throughout this conceptual model there were identified specific constraints of such process. Integration risks were examined by an empirical study based on the method HAZOP (Hazard and Operability). The discussion describes the analysis of our results implementation context of renewable energy projects in Romania and creates a framework for assessing energy supply to any entity from renewable sources.

  7. Failure mode effect analysis and fault tree analysis as a combined methodology in risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wessiani, N. A.; Yoshio, F.

    2018-04-01

    There have been many studies reported the implementation of Failure Mode Effect Analysis (FMEA) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) as a method in risk management. However, most of the studies usually only choose one of these two methods in their risk management methodology. On the other side, combining these two methods will reduce the drawbacks of each methods when implemented separately. This paper aims to combine the methodology of FMEA and FTA in assessing risk. A case study in the metal company will illustrate how this methodology can be implemented. In the case study, this combined methodology will assess the internal risks that occur in the production process. Further, those internal risks should be mitigated based on their level of risks.

  8. On the use of judgement in probabilistic risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Apostolakis, G

    1986-05-01

    The extensive use of judgement in risk studies creates several issues related to the perception of probabilities and the value of formal theories for uncertainty analysis. The direct assessment of probability distributions may lead to biased curves that do not represent the state of knowledge of the assessors. The use of formal methods and the calibration of the analysts help alleviate some of these biases. Case studies involving the assessment of probability distributions for human error rates and for failure rates of components exemplify the importance of the careful use of expert opinions in risk studies.

  9. RADTRAN 5: A computer code for transportation risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neuhauser, K.S.; Kanipe, F.L.

    1991-01-01

    RADTRAN 5 is a computer code developed at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) in Albuquerque, NM, to estimate radiological and nonradiological risks of radioactive materials transportation. RADTRAN 5 is written in ANSI Standard FORTRAN 77 and contains significant advances in the methodology for route-specific analysis first developed by SNL for RADTRAN 4 (Neuhauser and Kanipe, 1992). Like the previous RADTRAN codes, RADTRAN 5 contains two major modules for incident-free and accident risk amlysis, respectively. All commercially important transportation modes may be analyzed with RADTRAN 5: highway by combination truck; highway by light-duty vehicle; rail; barge; ocean-going ship; cargo air; and passenger air

  10. EGYPTIAN MUTUAL FUNDS ANALYSIS: HISTORY, PERFORMANCE, OBJECTIVES, RISK AND RETURN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petru STEFEA

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The present research aims to overview the mutual fund in Egypt. The establishment of the first mutual funds was achieved in 1994. Nowadays, the total mutual funds reached 90 funds , approximately. The income funds represent the largest share of the Egyptian mutual funds (40%, growth funds (25% and the private equity funds is at least (1%. The total population of the Egyptian mutual funds reached 22. Finally, the study proved that the Egyptian mutual funds have an impact on fund return , total risk and systemic; when analysis relationship between risk and return. The study found influencing for mutual fund's objectives on Sharpe and Terynor ratios.

  11. Organization of Risk Analysis Codes for Living Evaluations (ORACLE)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Batt, D.L.; MacDonald, P.E.; Sattison, M.B.; Vesely, E.

    1987-01-01

    ORACLE (Organization of Risk Analysis Codes for Living Evaluations) is an integration concept for using risk-based information in United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) applications. Portions of ORACLE are being developed at the Idaho Nationale Engineering Laboratory for the USNRC. The ORACLE concept consists of related databases, software, user interfaces, processes, and quality control checks allowing a wide variety of regulatory problems and activities to be addressed using current, updated PRA information. The ORACLE concept provides for smooth transitions between one code and the next without pre- or post-processing. (orig.)

  12. Liquidity Risk Management: An Empirical Analysis on Panel Data Analysis and ISE Banking Sector

    OpenAIRE

    Sibel ÇELİK; Yasemin Deniz AKARIM

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we test the factors affecting liquidity risk management in banking sector in Turkey by using panel regression analysis. We use the data for 9 commercial banks traded in Istanbul Stock Exchange for the period 1998-2008. In conclusion, we find that risky liquid assets and return on equity variables are negatively related with liquidity risk. However, external financing and return on asset variables are positively related with liquidity risk. This finding is importance for banks s...

  13. 48 CFR 25.503 - Group offers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Group offers. 25.503... PROGRAMS FOREIGN ACQUISITION Evaluating Foreign Offers-Supply Contracts 25.503 Group offers. (a) If the solicitation or an offer specifies that award can be made only on a group of line items or on all line items...

  14. 48 CFR 225.503 - Group offers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 3 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Group offers. 225.503... OF DEFENSE SOCIOECONOMIC PROGRAMS FOREIGN ACQUISITION Evaluating Foreign Offers-Supply Contracts 225.503 Group offers. Evaluate group offers in accordance with FAR 25.503, but apply the evaluation...

  15. Risk analysis in radiosurgery treatments using risk matrices; Analisis de riesgos en tratamientos de radiocirugia mediante matrices de riesgo

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Delgado, J. M.; Sanchez Cayela, C.; Ramirez, M. L.; Perez, A.

    2011-07-01

    The aim of this study is the risk analysis process stereotactic single-dose radiotherapy and evaluation of those initiating events that lead to increased risk and a possible solution in the design of barriers.

  16. Seismic risk analysis for the Westinghouse Electric facility, Cheswick, Pennsylvania

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1977-01-01

    This report presents the results of a detailed seismic risk analysis of the Westinghouse Electric plutonium fuel development facility at Cheswick, Pennsylvania. This report focuses on earthquakes. The historical seismic record was established after a review of available literature, consultation with operators of local seismic arrays and examination of appropriate seismic data bases. Because of the aseismicity of the region around the site, an analysis different from the conventional closest approach in a tectonic province was adapted. Earthquakes as far from the site as 1,000 km were included, as were the possibility of earthquakes at the site. In addition, various uncertainties in the input were explicitly considered in the analysis. For example, allowance was made for both the uncertainty in predicting maximum possible earthquakes in the region and the effect of the dispersion of data about the best fit attenuation relation. The attenuation relationship is derived from two of the most recent, advanced studies relating earthquake intensity reports and acceleration. Results of the risk analysis, which include a Bayesian estimate of the uncertainties, are presented as return period accelerations. The best estimate curve indicates that the Westinghouse facility will experience 0.05 g every 220 years and 0.10 g every 1400 years. The accelerations are very insensitive to the details of the source region geometries or the historical earthquake statistics in each region and each of the source regions contributes almost equally to the cumulative risk at the site

  17. Risk analysis within environmental impact assessment of proposed construction activity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zeleňáková, Martina; Zvijáková, Lenka

    2017-01-15

    Environmental impact assessment is an important process, prior to approval of the investment plan, providing a detailed examination of the likely and foreseeable impacts of proposed construction activity on the environment. The objective of this paper is to develop a specific methodology for the analysis and evaluation of environmental impacts of selected constructions – flood protection structures using risk analysis methods. The application of methodology designed for the process of environmental impact assessment will develop assumptions for further improvements or more effective implementation and performance of this process. The main objective of the paper is to improve the implementation of the environmental impact assessment process. Through the use of risk analysis methods in environmental impact assessment process, the set objective has been achieved. - Highlights: This paper is informed by an effort to develop research with the aim of: • Improving existing qualitative and quantitative methods for assessing the impacts • A better understanding of relations between probabilities and consequences • Methodology for the EIA of flood protection constructions based on risk analysis • Creative approaches in the search for environmentally friendly proposed activities.

  18. Risk analysis of critical infrastructures emphasizing electricity supply and interdependencies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kjølle, G.H.; Utne, I.B.; Gjerde, O.

    2012-01-01

    Failures in critical infrastructures can cause major damage to society. Wide-area interruptions (blackouts) in the electricity supply system have severe impacts on societal critical functions and other critical infrastructures, but there is no agreed-upon framework on how to analyze and predict the reliability of electricity supply. Thus, there is a need for an approach to cross-sector risk analyses, which facilitates risk analysis of outages in the electricity supply system and enables investigation of cascading failures and consequences in other infrastructures. This paper presents such an approach, which includes contingency analysis (power flow) and reliability analysis of power systems, as well as use of a cascade diagram for investigating interdependencies. A case study was carried out together with the Emergency Preparedness Group in the city of Oslo, Norway and the network company Hafslund Nett. The case study results highlight the need for cross-sector analyses by showing that the total estimated societal costs are substantially higher when cascading effects and consequences to other infrastructures are taken into account compared to only considering the costs of electricity interruptions as seen by the network company. The approach is a promising starting point for cross-sector risk analysis of electricity supply interruptions and consequences for dependent infrastructures.

  19. Risk analysis within environmental impact assessment of proposed construction activity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zeleňáková, Martina; Zvijáková, Lenka

    2017-01-01

    Environmental impact assessment is an important process, prior to approval of the investment plan, providing a detailed examination of the likely and foreseeable impacts of proposed construction activity on the environment. The objective of this paper is to develop a specific methodology for the analysis and evaluation of environmental impacts of selected constructions – flood protection structures using risk analysis methods. The application of methodology designed for the process of environmental impact assessment will develop assumptions for further improvements or more effective implementation and performance of this process. The main objective of the paper is to improve the implementation of the environmental impact assessment process. Through the use of risk analysis methods in environmental impact assessment process, the set objective has been achieved. - Highlights: This paper is informed by an effort to develop research with the aim of: • Improving existing qualitative and quantitative methods for assessing the impacts • A better understanding of relations between probabilities and consequences • Methodology for the EIA of flood protection constructions based on risk analysis • Creative approaches in the search for environmentally friendly proposed activities.

  20. Train integrity detection risk analysis based on PRISM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Yuan

    2018-04-01

    GNSS based Train Integrity Monitoring System (TIMS) is an effective and low-cost detection scheme for train integrity detection. However, as an external auxiliary system of CTCS, GNSS may be influenced by external environments, such as uncertainty of wireless communication channels, which may lead to the failure of communication and positioning. In order to guarantee the reliability and safety of train operation, a risk analysis method of train integrity detection based on PRISM is proposed in this article. First, we analyze the risk factors (in GNSS communication process and the on-board communication process) and model them. Then, we evaluate the performance of the model in PRISM based on the field data. Finally, we discuss how these risk factors influence the train integrity detection process.