WorldWideScience

Sample records for risk analysis fire

  1. A Method of Fire Scenarios Identification in a Consolidated Fire Risk Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lim, Ho Gon; Han, Sang Hoon; Yang, Joon Eon

    2010-01-01

    Conventional fire PSA consider only two cases of fire scenarios, that is one for fire without propagation and the other for single propagation to neighboring compartment. Recently, a consolidated fire risk analysis using single fault tree (FT) was developed. However, the fire scenario identification in the new method is similar to conventional fire analysis method. The present study develops a new method of fire scenario identification in a consolidated fire risk analysis method. An equation for fire propagation is developed to identify fire scenario and a mapping method of fire scenarios into internal event risk model is discussed. Finally, an algorithm for automatic program is suggested

  2. WIPP fire hazards and risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-05-01

    The purpose of this analysis was to conduct a fire hazards risk analysis of the Transuranic (TRU) contact-handled waste receipt, emplacement, and disposal activities at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). The technical bases and safety envelope for these operations are defined in the approved WIPP Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR). Although the safety documentation for the initial phase of the Test Program, the dry bin scale tests, has not yet been approved by the Department of Energy (DOE), reviews of the draft to date, including those by the Advisory Committee on Nuclear Facility Safety (ACNFS), have concluded that the dry bin scale tests present no significant risks in excess of those estimated in the approved WIPP FSAR. It is the opinion of the authors and reviewers of this analysis, based on sound engineering judgment and knowledge of the WIPP operations, that a Fire Hazards and Risk Analysis specific to the dry bin scale test program is not warranted prior to first waste receipt. This conclusion is further supported by the risk analysis presented in this document which demonstrates the level of risk to WIPP operations posed by fire to be extremely low. 15 refs., 41 figs., 48 tabs

  3. Probabilistic methods in fire-risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brandyberry, M.D.

    1989-01-01

    The first part of this work outlines a method for assessing the frequency of ignition of a consumer product in a building and shows how the method would be used in an example scenario utilizing upholstered furniture as the product and radiant auxiliary heating devices (electric heaters, wood stoves) as the ignition source. Deterministic thermal models of the heat-transport processes are coupled with parameter uncertainty analysis of the models and with a probabilistic analysis of the events involved in a typical scenario. This leads to a distribution for the frequency of ignition for the product. In second part, fire-risk analysis as currently used in nuclear plants is outlines along with a discussion of the relevant uncertainties. The use of the computer code COMPBRN is discussed for use in the fire-growth analysis along with the use of response-surface methodology to quantify uncertainties in the code's use. Generalized response surfaces are developed for temperature versus time for a cable tray, as well as a surface for the hot gas layer temperature and depth for a room of arbitrary geometry within a typical nuclear power plant compartment. These surfaces are then used to simulate the cable tray damage time in a compartment fire experiment

  4. Modeling issues in nuclear plant fire risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siu, N.

    1989-01-01

    This paper discusses various issues associated with current models for analyzing the risk due to fires in nuclear power plants. Particular emphasis is placed on the fire growth and suppression models, these being unique to the fire portion of the overall risk analysis. Potentially significant modeling improvements are identified; also discussed are a variety of modeling issues where improvements will help the credibility of the analysis, without necessarily changing the computed risk significantly. The mechanistic modeling of fire initiation is identified as a particularly promising improvement for reducing the uncertainties in the predicted risk. 17 refs., 5 figs. 2 tabs

  5. Applying Multi-Criteria Analysis Methods for Fire Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pushkina Julia

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to prove the application of multi-criteria analysis methods for optimisation of fire risk identification and assessment process. The object of this research is fire risk and risk assessment. The subject of the research is studying the application of analytic hierarchy process for modelling and influence assessment of various fire risk factors. Results of research conducted by the authors can be used by insurance companies to perform the detailed assessment of fire risks on the object and to calculate a risk extra charge to an insurance premium; by the state supervisory institutions to determine the compliance of a condition of object with requirements of regulations; by real state owners and investors to carry out actions for decrease in degree of fire risks and minimisation of possible losses.

  6. Fire risk analysis in ITER tritium building

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lignini, Franck; Uzan-Elbez, Joelle; Girard, Jean-Philippe; Porfiri, Maria Teresa; Rodriguez-Rodrigo, Lina

    2005-01-01

    Events, such as fire, have been considered in ITER documentation of low probability and a general approach has been defined in [Technical basis for the ITER final design, EDA Documentation Series I, No. 22, IAEA, Vienna, 2001] to be developed later for the ITER specific site. It was said that 'these hazards will be treated according to the industrial safety regulations and practices of the host country'. In the framework of studies for the European ITER site in Cadarache, an assessment of fire hazard has been done in order to ensure compliance with French safety requirements. In this report, a summary of existing laws is presented and an example of the deterministic approach to be followed for the preliminary safety report (PSR) is given on the analysis of tritium building design

  7. Rocky Flats Plant Live-Fire Range Risk Analysis Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nicolosi, S.L.; Rodriguez, M.A.

    1994-04-01

    The objective of the Live-Fire Range Risk Analysis Report (RAR) is to provide an authorization basis for operation as required by DOE 5480.16. The existing Live-Fire Range does not have a safety analysis-related authorization basis. EG&G Rocky Flats, Inc. has worked with DOE and its representatives to develop a format and content description for development of an RAR for the Live-Fire Range. Development of the RAR is closely aligned with development of the design for a baffle system to control risks from errant projectiles. DOE 5480.16 requires either an RAR or a safety analysis report (SAR) for live-fire ranges. An RAR rather than a SAR was selected in order to gain flexibility to more closely address the safety analysis and conduct of operation needs for a live-fire range in a cost-effective manner.

  8. Cable Hot Shorts and Circuit Analysis in Fire Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    LaChance, Jeffrey; Nowlen, Steven P.; Wyant, Frank

    1999-01-01

    Under existing methods of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), the analysis of fire-induced circuit faults has typically been conducted on a simplistic basis. In particular, those hot-short methodologies that have been applied remain controversial in regards to the scope of the assessments, the underlying methods, and the assumptions employed. To address weaknesses in fire PRA methodologies, the USNRC has initiated a fire risk analysis research program that includes a task for improving the tools for performing circuit analysis. The objective of this task is to obtain a better understanding of the mechanisms linking fire-induced cable damage to potentially risk-significant failure modes of power, control, and instrumentation cables. This paper discusses the current status of the circuit analysis task

  9. Fire Risk Analysis and Optimization of Fire Prevention Management for Green Building Design and High Rise Buildings: Hong Kong Experience

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yau Albert

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available There are many iconic high rise buildings in Hong Kong, for example, International Commercial Centre, International Financial Centre, etc. Fire safety issue in high rise buildings has been raised by local fire professionals in terms of occupant evacuation, means of fire-fighting by fire fighters, sprinkler systems to automatically put off fires in buildings, etc. Fire risk becomes an important issue in building fire safety because it relates to life safety of building occupants where they live and work in high rise buildings in Hong Kong. The aim of this research is to identify the fire risk for different types of high rise buildings in Hong Kong and to optimise the fire prevention management for those high rise buildings with higher level of fire risk and to validate the model and also to carry out the study of the conflict between the current fire safety building code and the current trend of green building design. Survey via the 7-point scale questionnaire was conducted through 50 participants and their responses were received and analysed via the statistical tool SPSS software computer program. A number of statistical methods of testing for significantly difference in samples were adopted to carry out the analysis of the data received. When the statistical analysis was completed, the results of the data analysis were validated by two Fire Safety Experts in this area of specialisation and also by quantitative fire risk analysis.

  10. A fire risk analysis method for nuclear installations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ormieres, Yannick; Lacoue, Jocelyne [Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire (IRSN), PSN-RES, SA2I, Fontenay-aux-Roses (France)

    2013-07-01

    A fire safety analysis (FSA) is requested to justify the adequacy of fire protection measures set by the operator of a nuclear facility. An IRSN document outlines a global process for such a comprehensive fire safety analysis and focuses on compliance with performance criteria for fire protection measures. These performance criteria are related to the vulnerability of targets to effects of fire, and not only based upon outside radiological consequences caused by a fire. In his FSA, the operator has to define the safety functions to be preserved in the case of a fire in order to be compliant with nuclear safety objectives. Then, the operator has to justify the adequacy of fire protection measures, defined according to defence in depth principles. One of the key points of the fire analysis is the assessment of possible fire scenarios in the facility. Given the large number of possible fire scenarios, it is then necessary to evaluate ''reference fires'' which are envelope of all possible fire scenarios and which are used by the operator for the design of fire protection measures. (orig.)

  11. Advanced methods for a probabilistic safety analysis of fires. Development of advanced methods for performing as far as possible realistic plant specific fire risk analysis (fire PSA)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hofer, E.; Roewekamp, M.; Tuerschmann, M.

    2003-07-01

    In the frame of the research project RS 1112 'Development of Methods for a Recent Probabilistic Safety Analysis, Particularly Level 2' funded by the German Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology (BMWi), advanced methods, in particular for performing as far as possible realistic plant specific fire risk analyses (fire PSA), should be developed. The present Technical Report gives an overview on the methodologies developed in this context for assessing the fire hazard. In the context of developing advanced methodologies for fire PSA, a probabilistic dynamics analysis with a fire simulation code including an uncertainty and sensitivity study has been performed for an exemplary scenario of a cable fire induced by an electric cabinet inside the containment of a modern Konvoi type German nuclear power plant taking into consideration the effects of fire detection and fire extinguishing means. With the present study, it was possible for the first time to determine the probabilities of specified fire effects from a class of fire events by means of probabilistic dynamics supplemented by uncertainty and sensitivity analyses. The analysis applies a deterministic dynamics model, consisting of a dynamic fire simulation code and a model of countermeasures, considering effects of the stochastics (so-called aleatory uncertainties) as well as uncertainties in the state of knowledge (so-called epistemic uncertainties). By this means, probability assessments including uncertainties are provided to be used within the PSA. (orig.) [de

  12. Cutting costs through detailed probabilistic fire risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oliveira, Luiz; Huser, Asmund; Vianna, Savio [Det Norske Veritas PRINCIPIA, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2004-07-01

    A new procedure for calculation of fire risks to offshore installations has been developed. The purposes of the procedure are to calculate the escalation and impairment frequencies to be applied in quantitative risk analyses, to optimize Passive Fire Protection (PFP) arrangement, and to optimize other fire mitigation means. The novelties of the procedure are that it uses state of the art Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) models to simulate fires and radiation, as well as the use of a probabilistic approach to decide the dimensioning fire loads. A CFD model of an actual platform was used to investigate the dynamic properties of a large set of jet fires, resulting in detailed knowledge of the important parameters that decide the severity of offshore fires. These results are applied to design the procedure. Potential increase in safety is further obtained for those conditions where simplified tools may have failed to predict abnormal heat loads due to geometrical effects. Using a field example it is indicated that the probabilistic approach can give significant reductions in PFP coverage with corresponding cost savings, still keeping the risk at acceptable level. (author)

  13. Risk analysis of the LHC underground area fire risk due to faulty electrical equipment

    CERN Document Server

    Harrison, A

    2007-01-01

    The European Organisation for Nuclear Research (CERN) in Geneva, Switzerland, is currently building the latest generation of particle accelerators, the LHC (Large Hadron Collider). The machine is housed in a circular tunnel of 27 km of circumference and is situated approximately 100 metres beneath the surface astride the Franco-Swiss border. Electrically induced fires in the LHC are a major concern, since an incident could present a threat to CERN personnel as well as the public. Moreover, the loss of equipment would result in significant costs and downtime. However, the amount of electrical equipment in the underground area required for operation, supervision and control of the machine is essential. Thus the present thesis is assessing the risk of fire due to faulty electrical equipment in both a qualitative as well as quantitative way. The recommendations following the qualitative analysis suggest the introduction of fire protection zones for the areas with the highest risk of fire due to a combination of p...

  14. Integrating fire behavior models and geospatial analysis for wildland fire risk assessment and fuel management planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alan A. Ager; Nicole M. Vaillant; Mark A. Finney

    2011-01-01

    Wildland fire risk assessment and fuel management planning on federal lands in the US are complex problems that require state-of-the-art fire behavior modeling and intensive geospatial analyses. Fuel management is a particularly complicated process where the benefits and potential impacts of fuel treatments must be demonstrated in the context of land management goals...

  15. Fire Risk Assessment in Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berg, H. P.

    2000-01-01

    Quantitative fire risk assessment can serve as an additional tool to assess the safety level of a nuclear power plant (NPP) and to set priorities for fire protection improvement measures. The recommended approach to be applied within periodic safety reviews of NPPs in Germany starts with a screening process providing critical fire zones in which a fully developed fire has the potential to both cause an initiating event and impair the function of at least one component or system critical to safety. The second step is to perform a quantitative analysis using a standard event tree has been developed with elements for fire initiation, ventilation of the room, fire detection, fire suppression, and fire propagation. In a final step, the fire induced frequency of initiating events, the main contributors and the calculated hazard state frequency for the fire event are determined. Results of the first quantitative fire risk studies performed in Germany are reported. (author)

  16. Gis-Based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis for Forest Fire Risk Mapping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akay, A. E.; Erdoğan, A.

    2017-11-01

    The forested areas along the coastal zone of the Mediterranean region in Turkey are classified as first-degree fire sensitive areas. Forest fires are major environmental disaster that affects the sustainability of forest ecosystems. Besides, forest fires result in important economic losses and even threaten human lives. Thus, it is critical to determine the forested areas with fire risks and thereby minimize the damages on forest resources by taking necessary precaution measures in these areas. The risk of forest fire can be assessed based on various factors such as forest vegetation structures (tree species, crown closure, tree stage), topographic features (slope and aspect), and climatic parameters (temperature, wind). In this study, GIS-based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) method was used to generate forest fire risk map. The study was implemented in the forested areas within Yayla Forest Enterprise Chiefs at Dursunbey Forest Enterprise Directorate which is classified as first degree fire sensitive area. In the solution process, "extAhp 2.0" plug-in running Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method in ArcGIS 10.4.1 was used to categorize study area under five fire risk classes: extreme risk, high risk, moderate risk, and low risk. The results indicated that 23.81 % of the area was of extreme risk, while 25.81 % was of high risk. The result indicated that the most effective criterion was tree species, followed by tree stages. The aspect had the least effective criterion on forest fire risk. It was revealed that GIS techniques integrated with MCDA methods are effective tools to quickly estimate forest fire risk at low cost. The integration of these factors into GIS can be very useful to determine forested areas with high fire risk and also to plan forestry management after fire.

  17. Fire risk analysis for nuclear power plants: Methodological developments and applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kazarians, M.; Apostolakis, G.; Siv, N.O.

    1985-01-01

    A methodology to quantify the risk from fires in nuclear power plants is described. This methodology combines engineering judgment, statistical evidence, fire phenomenology, and plant system analysis. It can be divided into two major parts: (1) fire scenario identification and quantification, and (2) analysis of the impact on plant safety. This article primarily concentrates on the first part. Statistical analysis of fire occurrence data is used to establish the likelihood of ignition. The temporal behaviors of the two competing phenomena, fire propagation and fire detection and suppression, are studied and their characteristic times are compared. Severity measures are used to further specialize the frequency of the fire scenario. The methodology is applied to a switchgear room of a nuclear power plant

  18. Some insights from fire risk analysis of US nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kazarians, M.; Lambright, J.A.; Frank, M.V.

    1998-01-01

    Fire risk analysis has been conducted for a significant portion of the nuclear power plants in the U.S. using either Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs) or FIVE or a combination of the two methodologies. Practically all fire risk studies have used step-wise, screening approach. To establish the contents of a compartment, the cable routing information collected for Appendix R compliance have been used in practically all risk studies. In several cases, the analysts have gone beyond the Appendix R and have obtained the routing of additional cables. For fire impact analysis typically an existing PRA model is used. For fire frequencies, typically, a generic data base is used. Fire scenarios are identified in varying levels of detail. The most common approach, in the early stages of screening, is based on the assumption that given a fire, the entire contents of the compartment are lost. Less conservative scenarios are introduced at later stages of the analysis which may include fire propagation patterns, fires localized to an item. and suppression of the fire before critical damage. For fire propagation and damage analysis, a large number of studies have used FIVE and many have used COMPBRN. For detection and suppression analysis, the generic suppression system unavailabilities given in FIVE have been used. The total core damage frequencies typically range between 1x10 -6 to 1x10 -4 per year. Control rooms and cable spreading rooms are the two most common areas found to be significant contributors to fire risk. Other areas are mainly from the Auxiliary Building (in the case of PWRs) and Reactor Building (in the case of BWRs). Only in one case, the main contributor to fire is the turbine building, which included several safety related equipment and cables. (author)

  19. Fire safety analysis: methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kazarians, M.

    1998-01-01

    From a review of the fires that have occurred in nuclear power plants and the results of fire risk studies that have been completed over the last 17 years, we can conclude that internal fires in nuclear power plants can be an important contributor to plant risk. Methods and data are available to quantify the fire risk. These methods and data have been subjected to a series of reviews and detailed scrutiny and have been applied to a large number of plants. There is no doubt that we do not know everything about fire and its impact on a nuclear power plants. However, this lack of knowledge or uncertainty can be quantified and can be used in the decision making process. In other words, the methods entail uncertainties and limitations that are not insurmountable and there is little or no basis for the results of a fire risk analysis fail to support a decision process

  20. Analysis of fire risk in French pressurized water reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Savornin; Brauns; Deletre; Laborde; Malet; Haller; Vachon; Rebuffat

    1988-10-01

    In a nuclear power station, as in other industrial Installations, fire can be the cause of considerable damage involving loss of capital for the operator along with loss of availability for electrical energy production which must be made up for at a later date. But to make matters worse, fire could also compromise safety of the installation, in order words it could be the cause of an accident involving discharge of radioactivity into the environment, if special precautions were not taken. Clearly then, in view of installation availability and of the very high level of safety which must be guaranteed, fire protection becomes an issue of the utmost importance. Although, practically speaking, fire protection is a composite issue affecting availability as much as installation safety, it is the latter subject which we intend to discuss in our paper

  1. Risk Analysis for Road Tunnels – A Metamodel to Efficiently Integrate Complex Fire Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berchtold, Florian; Knaust, Christian; Arnold, Lukas

    2018-01-01

    Fires in road tunnels constitute complex scenarios with interactions between the fire, tunnel users and safety measures. More and more methodologies for risk analysis quantify the consequences of these scenarios with complex models. Examples for complex models are the computational fluid dynamics...... complex scenarios in risk analysis. To face this challenge, we improved the metamodel used in the methodology for risk analysis presented on ISTSS 2016. In general, a metamodel quickly interpolates the consequences of few scenarios simulated with the complex models to a large number of arbitrary scenarios...... used in risk analysis. Now, our metamodel consists of the projection array-based design, the moving least squares method, and the prediction interval to quantify the metamodel uncertainty. Additionally, we adapted the projection array-based design in two ways: the focus of the sequential refinement...

  2. Fire risk in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, Seth Howard

    Fire is an integral part of ecosystems in the western United States. Decades of fire suppression have led to (unnaturally) large accumulations of fuel in some forest communities, such as the lower elevation forests of the Sierra Nevada. Urban sprawl into fire prone chaparral vegetation in southern California has put human lives at risk and the decreased fire return intervals have put the vegetation community at risk of type conversion. This research examines the factors affecting fire risk in two of the dominant landscapes in the state of California, chaparral and inland coniferous forests. Live fuel moisture (LFM) is important for fire ignition, spread rate, and intensity in chaparral. LFM maps were generated for Los Angeles County by developing and then inverting robust cross-validated regression equations from time series field data and vegetation indices (VIs) and phenological metrics from MODIS data. Fire fuels, including understory fuels which are not visible to remote sensing instruments, were mapped in Yosemite National Park using the random forests decision tree algorithm and climatic, topographic, remotely sensed, and fire history variables. Combining the disparate data sources served to improve classification accuracies. The models were inverted to produce maps of fuel models and fuel amounts, and these showed that fire fuel amounts are highest in the low elevation forests that have been most affected by fire suppression impacting the natural fire regime. Wildland fires in chaparral commonly burn in late summer or fall when LFM is near its annual low, however, the Jesusita Fire burned in early May of 2009, when LFM was still relatively high. The HFire fire spread model was used to simulate the growth of the Jesusita Fire using LFM maps derived from imagery acquired at the time of the fire and imagery acquired in late August to determine how much different the fire would have been if it had occurred later in the year. Simulated fires were 1.5 times larger

  3. FIRE HAZARDS ANALYSIS - BUSTED BUTTE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Longwell, R.; Keifer, J.; Goodin, S.

    2001-01-01

    The purpose of this fire hazards analysis (FHA) is to assess the risk from fire within individual fire areas at the Busted Butte Test Facility and to ascertain whether the DOE fire safety objectives are met. The objective, identified in DOE Order 420.1, Section 4.2, is to establish requirements for a comprehensive fire and related hazards protection program for facilities sufficient to minimize the potential for: (1) The occurrence of a fire related event. (2) A fire that causes an unacceptable on-site or off-site release of hazardous or radiological material that will threaten the health and safety of employees. (3) Vital DOE programs suffering unacceptable interruptions as a result of fire and related hazards. (4) Property losses from a fire and related events exceeding limits established by DOE. Critical process controls and safety class systems being damaged as a result of a fire and related events

  4. Nuclear insurance fire risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dressler, E.G.

    2001-01-01

    Nuclear facilities operate under the constant risk that radioactive materials could be accidentally released off-site and cause injuries to people or damages to the property of others. Management of this nuclear risk, therefore, is very important to nuclear operators, financial stakeholders and the general public. Operators of these facilities normally retain a portion of this risk and transfer the remainder to others through an insurance mechanism. Since the nuclear loss exposure could be very high, insurers usually assess their risk first-hand by sending insurance engineers to conduct a nuclear insurance inspection. Because a serious fire can greatly increase the probability of an off-site release of radiation, fire safety should be included in the nuclear insurance inspection. This paper reviews essential elements of a facility's fire safety program as a key factor in underwriting nuclear third-party liability insurance. (author)

  5. Fire risk analysis, fire simulation, fire spreading and impact of smoke and heat on instrumentation electronics - State-of-the-Art Report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roewekamp, M.; Bertrand, R.; Bonneval, F.; Hamblen, D.; Siu, N.; Aulamo, H.; Martila, J.; Sandberg, J.; Virolainen, R.

    2000-01-01

    Numerous fire PSAs (probabilistic safety assessments) have shown that fire can be a major contributor to nuclear power plant risk. However, there are considerable uncertainties in the results of these assessments, due to significant gaps in current abilities to perform realistic assessments. These gaps involve multiple aspects of fire PSA, including the estimation of the probability of important fire scenarios, the modeling of fire growth and suppression, the prediction of fire-induced damage to equipment (including the effects of smoke), and the treatment of plant and operator responses to the fire. In response to recommendations of /VIR 93/, CSNI/PWG5 established a Task Group to review the present status and maturity of current methods used in fire risk assessments for operating nuclear power plants. The Task Group issued a questionnaire in May 1997 to all nuclear power generating OECD countries. The prime focus of the questionnaire (see Appendix A) was on a number of important issues in fire PSA: Fire PSA methodology and applications; Fire simulation codes; Ignition and damageability data; Modeling of fire spread on cables or other equipment; Modeling of smoke production and spread; Impact of smoke and heat on instrumentation, electronics, or other electrical equipment; Impact of actual cable fires on safety systems. The questionnaire requested specific information on these topics (e.g., computer codes used in fire PSAs, the physical parameters used to model ignition). Responses to the questionnaire were provided by Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Japan, Spain, Switzerland, United Kingdom, and the USA. This report summarizes the questionnaire responses and thereby: a) provides a perspective on the current fire PSA state of the art (SOAR) with respect to the issues listed above, and b) provides numerous references for more detailed information regarding these issues. The main responsibility for writing different chapters of this report was divided between some

  6. Risk-informed decision-making analysis for the electrical raceway fire barrier systems on a BWR-4 plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Ching-Hui; Lin, Tsu-Jen; Kao, Tsu-Mu; Chen, Chyn-Rong

    2003-01-01

    This paper describes a risk-informed decision-making approach used to resolve the fire barrier issue in a BWR-4 nuclear plant where Appendix R separation requirements cannot be met without installing additional fire protection features such as electrical raceway fire barrier system. The related risk measures in CDF (core damage frequency) and LERF (large early release frequency) of the fire barrier issue can be determined by calculating the difference in plant risks between various alternative cases and that met the requirement of the Appendix R. In some alternative cases, additional early-detection and fast-response fire suppression systems are suggested. In some other cases, cable re-routing of some improper layout of non-safety related cables are required. Sets of fire scenarios are re-evaluated more detailed by reviewing the cable damage impact for the BWR-4 plant. The fire hazard model, COMPBRM III-e, is used in this study and the dominant results in risk measures are benchmarked with the CFD code, FDS 2.0, to ensure that the risk impact of fire barrier is estimated accurately in the risk-informed decision making. The traditional deterministic qualitative methods, such as defense-in-depth, safety margin and post-fire safety shutdown capability are also proceeded. The value-impact analysis for proposed alternatives of fire wrapping required by Appendix R has been completed for technical basis of the exemption on Appendix R application. The outcome of the above analysis should be in compliance with the regulatory guidelines (RG) 1.174 and 1.189 for the applications in the risk-informed decision-making of the fire wrapping issues. (author)

  7. Multi-temporal analysis of forest fire risk driven by environmental and socio-economic change in the Republic of Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, S. J.; Lim, C. H.; Kim, G. S.; Lee, W. K.

    2017-12-01

    Analysis of forest fire risk is important in disaster risk reduction (DRR) since it provides a way to manage forest fires. Climate and socio-economic factors are important in the cause of forest fires, and the role of the socio-economic factors in prevention and preparedness of forest fires is increasing. As most of the forest fires in the Republic of Korea are highly related to human activities, both environmental factors and socio-economic factors were considered into the analysis of forest fire risk. In this study, the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model was used to predict the potential geographical distribution and probability of forest fire occurrence spatially and temporally from 1980s to the 2010s in the Republic of Korea by multi-temporal analysis and analyze the relationship between forest fires and the factors. As a result of the risk analysis, there was an overall increasing trend in forest fire risk from the 1980s to the 2000s, and socio-economic factors were highly correlated with the occurrence of forest fires. The study demonstrates that the socio-economic factors considered as human activities can increase the occurrence of forest fires. The result implies that managing human activities are significant to prevent forest fire occurrence. In addition, timely forest fire prevention and control is necessary as drought index such as Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) also affected forest fires.

  8. Risk Insights Gained from Fire Incidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kazarians, Mardy; Nowlen, Steven P.

    1999-01-01

    There now exist close to 20 years of history in the application of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) for the analysis of fire risk at nuclear power plants. The current methods are based on various assumptions regarding fire phenomena, the impact of fire on equipment and operator response, and the overall progression of a fire event from initiation through final resolution. Over this same time period, a number of significant fire incidents have occurred at nuclear power plants around the world. Insights gained from US experience have been used in US studies as the statistical basis for establishing fire initiation frequencies both as a function of the plant area and the initiating fire source.To a lesser extent, the fire experience has also been used to assess the general severity and duration of fires. However, aside from these statistical analyses, the incidents have rarely been scrutinized in detail to verify the underlying assumptions of fire PRAs. This paper discusses an effort, under which a set of fire incidents are being reviewed in order to gain insights directly relevant to the methods, data, and assumptions that form the basis for current fire PRAs. The paper focuses on the objectives of the effort, the specific fire events being reviews methodology, and anticipated follow-on activities

  9. WILD FIRE RISK MAP IN THE EASTERN STEPPE OF MONGOLIA USING SPATIAL MULTI-CRITERIA ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Nasanbat

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Grassland fire is a cause of major disturbance to ecosystems and economies throughout the world. This paper investigated to identify risk zone of wildfire distributions on the Eastern Steppe of Mongolia. The study selected variables for wildfire risk assessment using a combination of data collection, including Social Economic, Climate, Geographic Information Systems, Remotely sensed imagery, and statistical yearbook information. Moreover, an evaluation of the result is used field validation data and assessment. The data evaluation resulted divided by main three group factors Environmental, Social Economic factor, Climate factor and Fire information factor into eleven input variables, which were classified into five categories by risk levels important criteria and ranks. All of the explanatory variables were integrated into spatial a model and used to estimate the wildfire risk index. Within the index, five categories were created, based on spatial statistics, to adequately assess respective fire risk: very high risk, high risk, moderate risk, low and very low. Approximately more than half, 68 percent of the study area was predicted accuracy to good within the very high, high risk and moderate risk zones. The percentages of actual fires in each fire risk zone were as follows: very high risk, 42 percent; high risk, 26 percent; moderate risk, 13 percent; low risk, 8 percent; and very low risk, 11 percent. The main overall accuracy to correct prediction from the model was 62 percent. The model and results could be support in spatial decision making support system processes and in preventative wildfire management strategies. Also it could be help to improve ecological and biodiversity conservation management.

  10. Wild Fire Risk Map in the Eastern Steppe of Mongolia Using Spatial Multi-Criteria Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nasanbat, Elbegjargal; Lkhamjav, Ochirkhuyag

    2016-06-01

    Grassland fire is a cause of major disturbance to ecosystems and economies throughout the world. This paper investigated to identify risk zone of wildfire distributions on the Eastern Steppe of Mongolia. The study selected variables for wildfire risk assessment using a combination of data collection, including Social Economic, Climate, Geographic Information Systems, Remotely sensed imagery, and statistical yearbook information. Moreover, an evaluation of the result is used field validation data and assessment. The data evaluation resulted divided by main three group factors Environmental, Social Economic factor, Climate factor and Fire information factor into eleven input variables, which were classified into five categories by risk levels important criteria and ranks. All of the explanatory variables were integrated into spatial a model and used to estimate the wildfire risk index. Within the index, five categories were created, based on spatial statistics, to adequately assess respective fire risk: very high risk, high risk, moderate risk, low and very low. Approximately more than half, 68 percent of the study area was predicted accuracy to good within the very high, high risk and moderate risk zones. The percentages of actual fires in each fire risk zone were as follows: very high risk, 42 percent; high risk, 26 percent; moderate risk, 13 percent; low risk, 8 percent; and very low risk, 11 percent. The main overall accuracy to correct prediction from the model was 62 percent. The model and results could be support in spatial decision making support system processes and in preventative wildfire management strategies. Also it could be help to improve ecological and biodiversity conservation management.

  11. Application of fire models for risk analysis in french nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brauns, P.

    1989-04-01

    Numerical simulations of compartment fires have been carried out in the French 900 MW and 1 300 MW nuclear power plants, to obtain quantitative data about this particular kind of risk: characteristic spreading times from one redundant electrical train to the other one, behaviour of important electrical components... The main stages of both studies were the following: selection of rooms, the location or function of which are essential for the plant safety in case of fire, on-site inspections to collect information about these rooms (amount of fuel, openings...), definition of fire scenarios, improvement of the fire model VESTA-PLUS, and, finally calculations using this computer code. The simulations have shown two major trends: i) the spreading times, without taking into account any external intervention, are always greater than half an hour, and ii) the specific design of the 1 300 MW power plants generally prevents one of the redundant train from being damaged due to a fire occurring in a room containing the other one. Examples of typical results obtained are given, showing the capability of application of the improved fire model to complex problems

  12. Getting fire risk assessment right.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charters, David

    2012-06-01

    The NHS has one of the world's largest and most varied estates, which at any time accommodates many of the most dependent people in society. With around 6,000 fires occurring in NHS premises each year, its duty of care--and that of other healthcare providers--demands very close attention to fire safety. Here Dr David Charters BSc, PhD, CEng, FIFireE, MIMechE, MSFPE, director of Fire Engineering at BRE Global, an independent third party approvals body offering certification of fire, security, and sustainability products and services, examines the critical role of fire risk assessment, and explains why the process should provide the 'foundation' for effective fire safety measures.

  13. Fire hazard analysis for the fuel supply shutdown storage buildings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    REMAIZE, J.A.

    2000-01-01

    The purpose of a fire hazards analysis (FHA) is to comprehensively assess the risk from fire and other perils within individual fire areas in a DOE facility in relation to proposed fire protection so as to ascertain whether the objectives of DOE 5480.7A, Fire Protection, are met. This Fire Hazards Analysis was prepared as required by HNF-PRO-350, Fire Hazards Analysis Requirements, (Reference 7) for a portion of the 300 Area N Reactor Fuel Fabrication and Storage Facility

  14. Operating room fires: a closed claims analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehta, Sonya P; Bhananker, Sanjay M; Posner, Karen L; Domino, Karen B

    2013-05-01

    To assess patterns of injury and liability associated with operating room (OR) fires, closed malpractice claims in the American Society of Anesthesiologists Closed Claims Database since 1985 were reviewed. All claims related to fires in the OR were compared with nonfire-related surgical anesthesia claims. An analysis of fire-related claims was performed to identify causative factors. There were 103 OR fire claims (1.9% of 5,297 surgical claims). Electrocautery was the ignition source in 90% of fire claims. OR fire claims more frequently involved older outpatients compared with other surgical anesthesia claims (P fire claims (P fires (n = 93) increased over time (P fires occurred during head, neck, or upper chest procedures (high-fire-risk procedures). Oxygen served as the oxidizer in 95% of electrocautery-induced OR fires (84% with open delivery system). Most electrocautery-induced fires (n = 75, 81%) occurred during monitored anesthesia care. Oxygen was administered via an open delivery system in all high-risk procedures during monitored anesthesia care. In contrast, alcohol-containing prep solutions and volatile compounds were present in only 15% of OR fires during monitored anesthesia care. Electrocautery-induced fires during monitored anesthesia care were the most common cause of OR fires claims. Recognition of the fire triad (oxidizer, fuel, and ignition source), particularly the critical role of supplemental oxygen by an open delivery system during use of the electrocautery, is crucial to prevent OR fires. Continuing education and communication among OR personnel along with fire prevention protocols in high-fire-risk procedures may reduce the occurrence of OR fires.

  15. High resolution fire risk mapping in Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fiorucci, Paolo; Biondi, Guido; Campo, Lorenzo; D'Andrea, Mirko

    2014-05-01

    extinguishing actions, leaving more resources to improve safety in areas at risk. With the availability of fire perimeters mapped over a period spanning from 5 to 10 years, depending by the region, a procedure was defined in order to assess areas at risk with high spatial resolution (900 m2) based on objective criteria by observing past fire events. The availability of fire perimeters combined with a detailed knowledge of topography and land cover allowed to understand which are the main features involved in forest fire occurrences and their behaviour. The seasonality of the fire regime was also considered, partitioning the analysis in two macro season (November- April and May- October). In addition, the total precipitation obtained from the interpolation of 30 years-long time series from 460 raingauges and the average air temperature obtained downscaling 30 years ERA-INTERIM data series were considered. About 48000 fire perimeters which burnt about 5500 km2 were considered in the analysis. The analysis has been carried out at 30 m spatial resolution. Some important considerations relating to climate and the territorial features that characterize the fire regime at national level contribute to better understand the forest fire phenomena. These results allow to define new strategies for forest fire prevention and management extensible to other geographical areas.

  16. Risk Assessment of the Main Control Room Fire Using Fire Simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, Dae Il; Kim, Kilyoo; Jang, Seung Cheol

    2013-01-01

    KAERI is performing a fire PSA for a reference plant, Ulchin Unit 3, as part of developing the Korean site risk profile (KSRP). Fire simulations of the MCR fire were conducted using the CFAST (Consolidated Fire Growth and Smoke Transport) model and FDS (fire dynamic simulator) to improve the uncertainty in the MCR fire risk analysis. Using the fire simulation results, the MCR abandonment risk was evaluated. Level 1 PSA (probabilistic safety assessment) results of Ulchin Unit 3 using the EPRI PRA (probabilistic risk assessment) implementation guide showed that the MCR (main control room) fire was the main contributor to the core damage frequency. Recently, U. S. NRC and EPRI developed NUREG/CR-6850 to provide state-of-the-art methods, tools, and data for the conduct of a fire PSA for a commercial NPP

  17. Wildland fire risk and social vulnerability in the Southeastern United States: An exploratory spatial data analysis approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassandra Johnson Gaither; Neelam C. Poudyal; Scott Goodrick; J. M. Bowker; Sparkle L Malone; Jianbang. Gan

    2011-01-01

    The southeastern U.S. is one of the more wildland fire prone areas of the country and also contains some of the poorest or most socially vulnerable rural communities. Our project addresses wildland fire risk in this part of the U.S and its intersection with social vulnerability. We examine spatial association between high wildland fire prone areas which also rank high...

  18. Motorcoach Fire Safety Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-07-01

    This purpose of this study was to collect and analyze information from Government, industry, and media sources on the causes, frequency, and severity of motorcoach fires in the U.S., and to identify potential risk reduction measures. The Volpe Center...

  19. Fire Hazard Analysis for the Cold Vacuum Drying (CVD) Facility

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    JOHNSON, B.H.

    1999-08-19

    This Fire Hazard Analysis assesses the risk from fire within individual fire areas in the Cold Vacuum Drying Facility at the Hanford Site in relation to existing or proposed fire protection features to ascertain whether the objectives of DOE Order 5480.7A Fire Protection are met.

  20. Fire Hazard Analysis for the Cold Vacuum Drying (CVD) Facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    JOHNSON, B.H.

    1999-01-01

    This Fire Hazard Analysis assesses the risk from fire within individual fire areas in the Cold Vacuum Drying Facility at the Hanford Site in relation to existing or proposed fire protection features to ascertain whether the objectives of DOE Order 5480.7A Fire Protection are met

  1. Cable fire risk of a nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aulamo, H.

    1998-02-01

    The aim of the study is to carry out a comprehensive review of cable fire risk issues of nuclear power plants (NPP) taking into account latest fire and risk assessment research results. A special emphasis is put on considering the fire risk analysis of cable rooms in the framework of TVO Olkiluoto NPP probabilistic safety assessment. The assumptions made in the analysis are assessed. The literature study section considers significant fire events at nuclear power plants, the most severe of which have nearly led to a reactor core damage (Browns Ferry, Greifswald, Armenia, Belojarsk, Narora). Cable fire research results are also examined

  2. Cable fire risk of a nuclear power plant; Ydinvoimalaitoksen kaapelipaloriski

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aulamo, H.

    1998-02-01

    The aim of the study is to carry out a comprehensive review of cable fire risk issues of nuclear power plants (NPP) taking into account latest fire and risk assessment research results. A special emphasis is put on considering the fire risk analysis of cable rooms in the framework of TVO Olkiluoto NPP probabilistic safety assessment. The assumptions made in the analysis are assessed. The literature study section considers significant fire events at nuclear power plants, the most severe of which have nearly led to a reactor core damage (Browns Ferry, Greifswald, Armenia, Belojarsk, Narora). Cable fire research results are also examined. 62 refs.

  3. Current Status of Fire Risk Assessment in Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berg, H. P.

    2002-01-01

    The approach for fire risk assessment to be applied within periodic safety reviews of nuclear power plants in Germany starts with a screening process providing critical fire zones in which a fully developed fire has the potential to both cause an initiating event and impair the function of at least one component or system critical to safety. The second step is to perform a quantitative analysis. For that purpose, a standard event tree has been developed with elements for fire initiation, ventilation of the room, fire detection, fire suppression, and fire propagation. This standard event tree has to be adapted to each critical fire zone or room. In a final step, the fire induced frequency of initiating events, the main contributors and the calculated hazard state frequency for the fire event are determined. In order to perform a quantitative fire risk assessment, a basic data base must be established which should, e.g., include initiating frequencies, reliability data for all fire protection measures, fire barriers, etc. Detailed plant-specific information is needed on ignition sources, detection and extinguishing systems, manual fire fighting, stationary fire suppression systems. As one contributor to fire specific PSA input data, reliability data for the active fire protection measures are required for the application in the fire specific event tree analysis. These data needed to be estimated are unavailabilities per demand or failure rates per hour of plant operation for those components or systems belonging to the active fire protection means. The data on potential failures or unavailabilities per demand of the respective fire protection measures were gained from the plant specific documentation of inspection and maintenance. The assessment whether the detected findings are estimated as failures or only as deficiencies or deteriorations requires a deep insight in the plant specific operating conditions for the fire protection means and needs careful engineering

  4. Fire risk assessment in Germany. Procedure, data, results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berg, H.P.

    2000-01-01

    The recommended approach for a quantitative fire risk assessment to be applied within periodic safety reviews of nuclear power plants in Germany starts with a screening process providing critical fire zones and is followed by a quantitative analysis using a standard event tree with elements for fire initiation, ventilation of the room, fire detection, fire suppression, and fire propagation. In a final step, the fire induced frequency of initiating events, the main contributors and the calculated hazard state frequency for the fire event are determined. For that purpose, a comprehensive data base is needed which has been developed in particular for active fire protection measures. As an example results of one fire PSA are reported. (author)

  5. Risk of commercial truck fires in the United States : an exploratory data analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-06-29

    Large trucks are involved in only 8 percent of fatal crashes per year, but 17 percent of fatal fires. The scope of the current body of research is limited. Studies have treated truck fires generally as a subset of vehicle fires or in their own right ...

  6. The influence of sodium fires on LMFBRs safety analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Justin, F [DSN/Centre de Fontenay-aux-Roses, Fontenay-aux-Roses (France)

    1979-03-01

    In a sodium cooled reactor, sodium fires are accidental conditions to be taken into account in safety analysis. For the various sodium categories, fire conditions, associated risks, safety analysis objectives and detailed corresponding issues are indicated, An experimental research program can be deduced from these considerations. This report covers the following: safety analysis methodology; primary sodium fires; secondary sodium fires; auxiliary sodium fires, and related experimental research programs.

  7. The influence of sodium fires on LMFBRs safety analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Justin, F.

    1979-01-01

    In a sodium cooled reactor, sodium fires are accidental conditions to be taken into account in safety analysis. For the various sodium categories, fire conditions, associated risks, safety analysis objectives and detailed corresponding issues are indicated, An experimental research program can be deduced from these considerations. This report covers the following: safety analysis methodology; primary sodium fires; secondary sodium fires; auxiliary sodium fires, and related experimental research programs

  8. Fire Risk Scoping Study: Investigation of nuclear power plant fire risk, including previously unaddressed issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lambright, J.A.; Nowlen, S.P.; Nicolette, V.F.; Bohn, M.P.

    1989-01-01

    An investigation of nuclear power plant fire risk issues raised as a result of the USNRC sponsored Fire Protection Research Program at Sandia National Laboratories has been performed. The specific objectives of this study were (1) to review and requantify fire risk scenarios from four fire probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) in light of updated data bases made available as a result of USNRC sponsored Fire Protection Research Program and updated computer fire modeling capabilities, (2) to identify potentially significant fire risk issues that have not been previously addressed in a fire risk context and to quantify the potential impact of those identified fire risk issues where possible, and (3) to review current fire regulations and plant implementation practices for relevance to the identified unaddressed fire risk issues. In performance of the fire risk scenario requantifications several important insights were gained. It was found that utilization of a more extensive operational experience base resulted in both fire occurrence frequencies and fire duration times (i.e., time required for fire suppression) increasing significantly over those assumed in the original works. Additionally, some thermal damage threshold limits assumed in the original works were identified as being nonconservative based on more recent experimental data. Finally, application of the COMPBRN III fire growth model resulted in calculation of considerably longer fire damage times than those calculated in the original works using COMPBRN I. 14 refs., 2 figs., 16 tabs

  9. Probabilistic analysis of fires in nuclear plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Unione, A.; Teichmann, T.

    1985-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to describe a multilevel (i.e., staged) probabilistic analysis of fire risks in nuclear plants (as part of a general PRA) which maximizes the benefits of the FRA (fire risk assessment) in a cost effective way. The approach uses several stages of screening, physical modeling of clearly dominant risk contributors, searches for direct (e.g., equipment dependences) and secondary (e.g., fire induced internal flooding) interactions, and relies on lessons learned and available data from and surrogate FRAs. The general methodology is outlined. 6 figs., 10 tabs

  10. Fire Hazards Analysis for the Inactive Equipment Storage Sprung Structure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MYOTT, C.F.

    2000-01-01

    The purpose of the analysis is to comprehensively assess the risk from fire within individual fire areas in relation to proposed fire protection so as to ascertain whether the fire protection objective of DOE Order 5480.1A are met. The order acknowledges a graded approach commensurate with the hazards involved

  11. BBN Model with Quantitative Inputs for Risk Analysis of Uncontrolled Fire in Machinery Space

    OpenAIRE

    Azizpour, Hooshyar

    2016-01-01

    The past decades has witnessed a significant increase in the number and volume of international trade through the sea. Thousands of ships are sailing in the coastal and international waters all over the world. Accident in the sea transport not only results loss of property for the owners of vessels and traders of cargo, but also threatens the environment and the humans who are directly or indirectly associated with the marine industry. One of the most dangerous accidents in ships is fire and...

  12. Real time forest fire warning and forest fire risk zoning: a Vietnamese case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, T.; Pham, D.; Phung, T.; Ha, A.; Paschke, M.

    2016-12-01

    Forest fire occurs seriously in Vietnam and has been considered as one of the major causes of forest lost and degradation. Several studies of forest fire risk warning were conducted using Modified Nesterov Index (MNI) but remaining shortcomings and inaccurate predictions that needs to be urgently improved. In our study, several important topographic and social factors such as aspect, slope, elevation, distance to residential areas and road system were considered as "permanent" factors while meteorological data were updated hourly using near-real-time (NRT) remotely sensed data (i.e. MODIS Terra/Aqua and TRMM) for the prediction and warning of fire. Due to the limited number of weather stations in Vietnam, data from all active stations (i.e. 178) were used with the satellite data to calibrate and upscale meteorological variables. These data with finer resolution were then used to generate MNI. The only significant "permanent" factors were selected as input variables based on the correlation coefficients that computed from multi-variable regression among true fire-burning (collected from 1/2007) and its spatial characteristics. These coefficients also used to suggest appropriate weight for computing forest fire risk (FR) model. Forest fire risk model was calculated from the MNI and the selected factors using fuzzy regression models (FRMs) and GIS based multi-criteria analysis. By this approach, the FR was slightly modified from MNI by the integrated use of various factors in our fire warning and prediction model. Multifactor-based maps of forest fire risk zone were generated from classifying FR into three potential danger levels. Fire risk maps were displayed using webgis technology that is easy for managing data and extracting reports. Reported fire-burnings thereafter have been used as true values for validating the forest fire risk. Fire probability has strong relationship with potential danger levels (varied from 5.3% to 53.8%) indicating that the higher

  13. An overview of the fire risk scoping study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nowlen, S.P.; Lambright, J.A.; Nicolette, V.F.; Bohn, M.P.

    1989-01-01

    The Fire Risk Scoping Study was sponsored by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and performed at Sandia National Laboratories. The study was initiated as a result of previous USNRC-sponsored fire research efforts that had identified certain fire risk issues that had not been addressed in previously completed commercial nuclear power plant fire risk analyses. The specific objectives of this study were (1) to review and requantify fire risk scenarios from four fire probabilistic risk assessments in light of updated data bases made available as a result of USNRC-sponsored Fire Protection Research Program and updated computer fire modeling capabilities, (2) to identify potentially significant fire risk issues that have not been previously addressed in a fire risk context and to quantify the potential impact of those identified fire risk issues where possible, and (3) to review current fire regulations and plant implementation practices for relevance to the identified unaddressed fire risk issues. 9 refs., 3 tabs

  14. Fire hazard analysis of the radioactive mixed waste trenchs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McDonald, K.M.

    1995-01-01

    This Fire Hazards Analysis (FHA) is intended to assess comprehensively the risk from fire associated with the disposal of low level radioactive mixed waste in trenches within the lined landfills, provided by Project W-025, designated Trench 31 and 34 of the Burial Ground 218-W-5. Elements within the FHA make recommendations for minimizing risk to workers, the public, and the environment from fire during the course of the operation's activity. Transient flammables and combustibles present that support the operation's activity are considered and included in the analysis. The graded FHA contains the following elements: description of construction, protection of essential safety class equipment, fire protection features, description of fire hazards, life safety considerations, critical process equipment, high value property, damage potential--maximum credible fire loss (MCFL) and maximum possible fire loss (MPFL), fire department/brigade response, recovery potential, potential for a toxic, biological and/or radiation incident due to a fire, emergency planning, security considerations related to fire protection, natural hazards (earthquake, flood, wind) impact on fire safety, and exposure fire potential, including the potential for fire spread between fire areas. Recommendations for limiting risk are made in the text of this report and printed in bold type. All recommendations are repeated in a list in Section 18.0

  15. Fire hazards analysis for the uranium oxide (UO3) facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wyatt, D.M.

    1994-01-01

    The Fire Hazards Analysis (FHA) documents the deactivation end-point status of the UO 3 complex fire hazards, fire protection and life safety systems. This FHA has been prepared for the Uranium Oxide Facility by Westinghouse Hanford Company in accordance with the criteria established in DOE 5480.7A, Fire Protection and RLID 5480.7, Fire Protection. The purpose of the Fire Hazards Analysis is to comprehensively and quantitatively assess the risk from a fire within individual fire areas in a Department of Energy facility so as to ascertain whether the objectives stated in DOE Order 5480.7, paragraph 4 are met. Particular attention has been paid to RLID 5480.7, Section 8.3, which specifies the criteria for deactivating fire protection in decommission and demolition facilities

  16. Risk assessment of main control board fire using fire dynamics simulator

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kang, Dae Il, E-mail: dikang@kaeri.re.kr [KAERI, 1045 Daedeokdaero, Yuseong-Gu, Daejeon 305-353 (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Kilyoo; Jang, Seung-Cheol [KAERI, 1045 Daedeokdaero, Yuseong-Gu, Daejeon 305-353 (Korea, Republic of); Yoo, Seong Yeon [Chungnam National University, 79, Daehagro, Yuseong-Gu, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-08-15

    Highlights: • A decision tree for evaluating the risk of a main control board (MCB) fire was proposed to systematically determine the MCB fire scenarios. • Fire simulations using fire dynamics simulator (FDS) were performed to estimate the time to MCR abandonment. • Non-propagating and propagating fire scenarios were considered for fire simulations. • The current study indicates that the quantification of the MCB fire risk should address the propagating fire and non-propagating fire scenarios if the MCB has no internal barriers between the panels. - Abstract: This paper presents the process and results of a risk assessment for a main control board (MCB) fire using fire dynamics simulator (FDS). A decision tree for evaluating the risk of a MCB fire was proposed to systematically determine the MCB fire scenarios, and fire simulations using FDS were performed to estimate the time to MCR abandonment. As a reference NPP for this study, Hanul unit 3 in Korea was selected and its core damage frequency (CDF) owing to the MCB fire was quantified. Two types of fire scenarios were considered for fire simulations: non-propagating fire scenarios occurring within a single MCB panel and propagating fire scenarios spreading from one control panel to the adjacent panels. Further, the fire scenarios were classified into fires with and without a heating, ventilation, and air conditioning system (HVACS). The fire simulation results showed that the major factor causing the MCR evacuation was the optical density irrelevant to the availability of the HVACS. The risk assessment results showed that the abandonment fire scenario risk was less than the non-abandonment fire scenario risk and the propagating fire scenario risk was greater than the non-propagating fire scenario risk.

  17. Risk assessment of main control board fire using fire dynamics simulator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, Dae Il; Kim, Kilyoo; Jang, Seung-Cheol; Yoo, Seong Yeon

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • A decision tree for evaluating the risk of a main control board (MCB) fire was proposed to systematically determine the MCB fire scenarios. • Fire simulations using fire dynamics simulator (FDS) were performed to estimate the time to MCR abandonment. • Non-propagating and propagating fire scenarios were considered for fire simulations. • The current study indicates that the quantification of the MCB fire risk should address the propagating fire and non-propagating fire scenarios if the MCB has no internal barriers between the panels. - Abstract: This paper presents the process and results of a risk assessment for a main control board (MCB) fire using fire dynamics simulator (FDS). A decision tree for evaluating the risk of a MCB fire was proposed to systematically determine the MCB fire scenarios, and fire simulations using FDS were performed to estimate the time to MCR abandonment. As a reference NPP for this study, Hanul unit 3 in Korea was selected and its core damage frequency (CDF) owing to the MCB fire was quantified. Two types of fire scenarios were considered for fire simulations: non-propagating fire scenarios occurring within a single MCB panel and propagating fire scenarios spreading from one control panel to the adjacent panels. Further, the fire scenarios were classified into fires with and without a heating, ventilation, and air conditioning system (HVACS). The fire simulation results showed that the major factor causing the MCR evacuation was the optical density irrelevant to the availability of the HVACS. The risk assessment results showed that the abandonment fire scenario risk was less than the non-abandonment fire scenario risk and the propagating fire scenario risk was greater than the non-propagating fire scenario risk

  18. Managing the risks of risk management on large fires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donald G. MacGregor; Armando González-Cabán

    2013-01-01

    Large fires pose risks to a number of important values, including the ecology, property and the lives of incident responders. A relatively unstudied aspect of fire management is the risks to which incident managers are exposed due to organizational and sociopolitical factors that put them in a position of, for example, potential liability or degradation of their image...

  19. An evaluation of risk methods for prioritizing fire protection features: a procedure for fire barrier penetration seals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dey, M.K.

    2004-01-01

    This paper generally evaluates risk methods available for prioritizing fire protection features. Risk methods involving both the use of qualitative insights, and quantitative results from a fire probabilistic risk analysis are reviewed. The applicability of these methods to develop a prioritized list of fire barrier penetration seals in a plant based on risk significance is presented as a procedure to illustrate the benefits of the methods. The paper concludes that current fire risk assessment methods can be confidently used to prioritize plant fire protection features, specifically fire barrier penetration seals. Simple prioritization schemes, using qualitative assessments and insights from fire PRA methodology may be implemented without the need for quantitative results. More elaborate prioritization schemes that allow further refinements to the categorization process may be implemented using the quantitative results of the screening processes in good fire PRAs. The use of the quantitative results from good fire PRAs provide several benefits for risk prioritization of fire protection features at plants, mainly from the plant systems analyses conducted for a fire PRA

  20. The French fire protection concept. Vulnerability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaercher, M.

    1998-01-01

    The French fire protection concept is based on a principle of three levels of defence in depth: fire prevention, fire containing and fire controlling. Fire prevention is based on arrangements which prevent the fire from starting or which make difficult for the fire to start. Fire containing is based on design measures so that the fire will have no impact on the safety of the installation. For fire controlling, equipment nad personnel are on duty in order to detect, to fight and to gain control over the fire as early as possible. The French fire protection concept gives priority to fire containing based on passive structural measures. All buildings containing safety equipment are divided into fire compartments (or fire areas) and fire cells (or fire zones). Basically, a compartment houses safety equipment belonging to one division (or train) so that the other division is always available to reach the plant safe shut down or to mitigate an accident. Because there is a large number of fire compartments and fire cells, deviations from the general principle can be observed. To this reason the RCC-I (Design and Construction Rules applicable for fire protection) requires to implement an assessment of the principle of division. This assessment is called vulnerability analysis. The vulnerability analysis is usually performed at the end of the project, before erection. It is also possible to perform a vulnerability analysis in an operating nuclear power plant in the scope of a fire safety upgrading programme. In the vulnerability analysis, the functional failure of all the equipment (except for those protected by a qualified fire barrier, designed or able to withstand the fire consequences) within the fire compartment or cell, where the fire breaks out, is postulated. The potential consequences for the plant safety are analysed

  1. Secondary Fire Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-09-01

    Megaton Weapons and Secondary Ignition There are very few well documented data on fires initiated by physical damage (i.e., secondary ignitions). Those data...where significant physical damage to buildings and/or contents can occur. Where this outer bound is located relative to the primary ignition range is...maintenance 7.9 Busline facilities, including shops 3.0 Convalescent homes8 3.1 Hospitals 8.0 Radio and television transmitters Collges and universities

  2. A method for mapping fire hazard and risk across multiple scales and its application in fire management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert E. Keane; Stacy A. Drury; Eva C. Karau; Paul F. Hessburg; Keith M. Reynolds

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents modeling methods for mapping fire hazard and fire risk using a research model called FIREHARM (FIRE Hazard and Risk Model) that computes common measures of fire behavior, fire danger, and fire effects to spatially portray fire hazard over space. FIREHARM can compute a measure of risk associated with the distribution of these measures over time using...

  3. Development of the fire PSA methodology and the fire analysis computer code system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Katsunori, Ogura; Tomomichi, Ito; Tsuyoshi, Uchida; Yusuke, Kasagawa

    2009-01-01

    Fire PSA methodology has been developed and was applied to NPPs in Japan for power operation and LPSD states. CDFs of preliminary fire PSA for power operation were the higher than that of internal events. Fire propagation analysis code system (CFAST/FDS Network) was being developed and verified thru OECD-PRISME Project. Extension of the scope for LPSD state is planned to figure out the risk level. In order to figure out the fire risk level precisely, the enhancement of the methodology is planned. Verification and validation of phenomenological fire propagation analysis code (CFAST/FDS Network) in the context of Fire PSA. Enhancement of the methodology such as an application of 'Electric Circuit Analysis' in NUREG/CR-6850 and related tests in order to quantify the hot-short effect precisely. Development of seismic-induced fire PSA method being integration of existing seismic PSA and fire PSA methods is ongoing. Fire PSA will be applied to review the validity of fire prevention and mitigation measures

  4. Estimating Fire Risks at Industrial Nuclear Facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coutts, D.A.

    1999-01-01

    The Savannah River Site (SRS) has a wide variety of nuclear production facilities that include chemical processing facilities, machine shops, production reactors, and laboratories. Current safety documentation must be maintained for the nuclear facilities at SRS. Fire Risk Analyses (FRAs) are used to support the safety documentation basis. These FRAs present the frequency that specified radiological and chemical consequences will be exceeded. The consequence values are based on mechanistic models assuming specific fire protection features fail to function as designed

  5. Climate effect on forest fire static risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodini, Antonella; Cossu, Antonello; Entrade, Erika; Fiorucci, Paolo; Gaetani, Francesco; Parodi, Ulderica

    2010-05-01

    The availability of a long data series of fire perimeters combined with a detailed knowledge of topography and land cover allow to understand which are the main features involved in forest fire occurrences and their behaviour. In addition, climate indexes obtained from the analysis of time series with more than 20 years of complete records allow to understand the role of climate on fire regime, both in terms of direct effects on fire behaviour and the effect on vegetation cover. In particular, indices of extreme events have been considered like CDD (maximum number of consecutive dry days) and HWDI (heat wave duration index: maximum period > 5 consecutive days with Tmax >5°C above the 1961-1990 daily Tmax normal), together with the usual indices describing rainfall and temperature regimes. As a matter of fact, based on this information it is possible to develop statistical methods for the objective classification of forest fire static risk at regional scale. Two different case studies are presented in this work: Regione Liguria and Regione Sardegna (Italy). Both regions are in the center of the Mediterranean and are characterized by a high number of fires and burned area. However, the two regions have very different fire regimes. Sardinia is affected by the fire phenomenon only in summer whilst Liguria is affected by fires also in winter, with higher number of fires and larger burned area. In addition, the two region are very different in vegetation cover. The presence of Mediterranean conifers, (Pinus Pinaster, Pinus Nigra, Pinus halepensis) is quite spread in Liguria and is almost absent in Sardinia. What is common in the two regions is the widespread presence of shrub species frequently spread by fire. The analysis in the two regions thus allows in a rather limited area to consider almost all the species and the climate conditions that characterize the Mediterranean region. More than 10000 fire perimeters that burnt about 800 km2 were considered in the analysis

  6. Fire Hazards Analysis for the 200 Area Interim Storage Area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    JOHNSON, D.M.

    2000-01-01

    This documents the Fire Hazards Analysis (FHA) for the 200 Area Interim Storage Area. The Interim Storage Cask, Rad-Vault, and NAC-1 Cask are analyzed for fire hazards and the 200 Area Interim Storage Area is assessed according to HNF-PRO-350 and the objectives of DOE Order 5480 7A. This FHA addresses the potential fire hazards associated with the Interim Storage Area (ISA) facility in accordance with the requirements of DOE Order 5480 7A. It is intended to assess the risk from fire to ensure there are no undue fire hazards to site personnel and the public and to ensure property damage potential from fire is within acceptable limits. This FHA will be in the form of a graded approach commensurate with the complexity of the structure or area and the associated fire hazards

  7. Root cause analysis for fire events at nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1999-09-01

    Fire hazard has been identified as a major contributor to a plant' operational safety risk. The International nuclear power community (regulators, operators, designers) has been studying and developing tools for defending against this hazed. Considerable advances have been achieved during past two decades in design and regulatory requirements for fire safety, fire protection technology and related analytical techniques. The IAEA endeavours to provide assistance to Member States in improving fire safety in nuclear power plants. A task was launched by IAEA in 1993 with the purpose to develop guidelines and good practices, to promote advanced fire safety assessment techniques, to exchange state of the art information, and to provide engineering safety advisory services and training in the implementation of internationally accepted practices. This TECDOC addresses a systematic assessment of fire events using the root cause analysis methodology, which is recognized as an important element of fire safety assessment

  8. CONSIDERATIONS ON RISK MANAGEMENT APPLIED TO FOREST FIRES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ioan Valentin Marcel Posea

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Forest risk and management are ubiquitous in any socio-economic activity. Forestry, more than any other field, is at risk from fire. Consequently, it appears the necessity to implement a fire risk management that could resolve, at least partially, the specific problems. This study attempts to identify the specific stages and processes of forest fire risk management and their content. At the same time, I will try to highlight how a forest fire risk management process planning can be achieved and to present a way of achieving the Plan. I also deem necessary a forest fire risk monitoring and control system that I have built using the Deming cycle.

  9. Uncertainty and risk in wildland fire management: A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthew P. Thompson; Dave E. Calkin

    2011-01-01

    Wildland fire management is subject to manifold sources of uncertainty. Beyond the unpredictability of wildfire behavior, uncertainty stems from inaccurate/missing data, limited resource value measures to guide prioritization across fires and resources at risk, and an incomplete scientific understanding of ecological response to fire, of fire behavior response to...

  10. One Approach to the Fire PSA Uncertainty Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simic, Z.; Mikulicic, V.; Vukovic, I.

    2002-01-01

    Experienced practical events and findings from the number of fire probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) studies show that fire has high relative importance for nuclear power plant safety. Fire PSA is a very challenging phenomenon and a number of issues are still in the area of research and development. This has a major impact on the conservatism of fire PSA findings. One way to reduce the level of conservatism is to conduct uncertainty analysis. At the top-level, uncertainty of the fire PSA can be separated in to three segments. The first segment is related to fire initiating events frequencies. The second uncertainty segment is connected to the uncertainty of fire damage. Finally, there is uncertainty related to the PSA model, which propagates this fire-initiated damage to the core damage or other analyzed risk. This paper discusses all three segments of uncertainty. Some recent experience with fire PSA study uncertainty analysis, usage of fire analysis code COMPBRN IIIe, and uncertainty evaluation importance to the final result is presented.(author)

  11. Optimizing prescribed fire allocation for managing fire risk in central Catalonia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alcasena, Fermín J; Ager, Alan A; Salis, Michele; Day, Michelle A; Vega-Garcia, Cristina

    2018-04-15

    We used spatial optimization to allocate and prioritize prescribed fire treatments in the fire-prone Bages County, central Catalonia (northeastern Spain). The goal of this study was to identify suitable strategic locations on forest lands for fuel treatments in order to: 1) disrupt major fire movements, 2) reduce ember emissions, and 3) reduce the likelihood of large fires burning into residential communities. We first modeled fire spread, hazard and exposure metrics under historical extreme fire weather conditions, including node influence grid for surface fire pathways, crown fraction burned and fire transmission to residential structures. Then, we performed an optimization analysis on individual planning areas to identify production possibility frontiers for addressing fire exposure and explore alternative prescribed fire treatment configurations. The results revealed strong trade-offs among different fire exposure metrics, showed treatment mosaics that optimize the allocation of prescribed fire, and identified specific opportunities to achieve multiple objectives. Our methods can contribute to improving the efficiency of prescribed fire treatment investments and wildfire management programs aimed at creating fire resilient ecosystems, facilitating safe and efficient fire suppression, and safeguarding rural communities from catastrophic wildfires. The analysis framework can be used to optimally allocate prescribed fire in other fire-prone areas within the Mediterranean region and elsewhere. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. On fire risk/methodology for the next generation of reactors and nuclear facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Majumdar, K.C.; Alesso, H.P.; Altenbach, T.J.

    1992-01-01

    Methodologies for including fire in probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) have been evolving during the last ten years. Many of these studies show that fire risk constitutes a significant percentage of external events, as well as the total core damage frequency. This paper summarizes the methodologies used in the fire risk analysis of the next generation of reactors and existing DOE nuclear facilities. Methodologies used in other industries, as well as existing nuclear power plants, are also discussed. Results of fire risk studies for various nuclear plants and facilities are shown and compared

  13. A conceptual framework for formulating a focused and cost-effective fire protection program based on analyses of risk and the dynamics of fire effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dey, M.K.

    1999-01-01

    This paper proposes a conceptual framework for developing a fire protection program at nuclear power plants based on probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) of fire hazards, and modeling the dynamics of fire effects. The process for categorizing nuclear power plant fire areas based on risk is described, followed by a discussion of fire safety design methods that can be used for different areas of the plant, depending on the degree of threat to plant safety from the fire hazard. This alternative framework has the potential to make programs more cost-effective, and comprehensive, since it will allow a more systematic and broader examination of fire risk, and provide a means to distinguish between high and low risk fire contributors. (orig.)

  14. Domains of Risk in the Developmental Continuity of Fire Setting

    OpenAIRE

    McCarty, Carolyn A.; McMahon, Robert J.

    2005-01-01

    Juvenile fire setting is a serious, dangerous, and costly behavior. The majority of research examining youth fire setting has been cross-sectional. We sought to examine early risk attributes that could differentiate fire setters from non–fire setters, in addition to examining their association with the developmental continuity of fire-setting behavior into late childhood. Using a sample of 361 youth drawn from 4 different U.S. communities, this study examined the association between a broad a...

  15. Analysis of the risk management decisionmaking processes and the decision support systems in the wildland fire agencies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patrick Withen

    2007-01-01

    This paper offers an analysis of the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats in the risk management process, decision support systems (DSSs), and other types of decisionmaking, including recognition primed decisionmaking, bricolage with the goal of improving DSSs and decisionmaking. DSSs may be thought of as any technology or knowledge that is used as an aid...

  16. Forest fire risk zonation mapping using remote sensing technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chandra, Sunil; Arora, M. K.

    2006-12-01

    Forest fires cause major losses to forest cover and disturb the ecological balance in our region. Rise in temperature during summer season causing increased dryness, increased activity of human beings in the forest areas, and the type of forest cover in the Garhwal Himalayas are some of the reasons that lead to forest fires. Therefore, generation of forest fire risk maps becomes necessary so that preventive measures can be taken at appropriate time. These risk maps shall indicate the zonation of the areas which are in very high, high, medium and low risk zones with regard to forest fire in the region. In this paper, an attempt has been made to generate the forest fire risk maps based on remote sensing data and other geographical variables responsible for the occurrence of fire. These include altitude, temperature and soil variations. Key thematic data layers pertaining to these variables have been generated using various techniques. A rule-based approach has been used and implemented in GIS environment to estimate fuel load and fuel index leading to the derivation of fire risk zonation index and subsequently to fire risk zonation maps. The fire risk maps thus generated have been validated on the ground for forest types as well as for forest fire risk areas. These maps would help the state forest departments in prioritizing their strategy for combating forest fires particularly during the fire seasons.

  17. Surface Fire Hazards Analysis Technical Report-Constructor Facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flye, R.E.

    2000-01-01

    The purpose of this Fire Hazards Analysis Technical Report (hereinafter referred to as Technical Report) is to assess the risk from fire within individual fire areas to ascertain whether the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) fire safety objectives are met. The objectives identified in DOE Order 420.1, Change 2, Facility Safety, Section 4.2, establish requirements for a comprehensive fire and related hazards protection program for facilities sufficient to minimize the potential for: The occurrence of a fire or related event; A fire that causes an unacceptable on-site or off-site release of hazardous or radiological material that will threaten the health and safety of employees, the public, or the environment; Vital DOE programs suffering unacceptable interruptions as a result of fire and related hazards; Property losses from a fire and related events exceeding defined limits established by DOE; and Critical process controls and safety class systems being damaged as a result of a fire and related events

  18. Risk Analysis in Road Tunnels – Most Important Risk Indicators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berchtold, Florian; Knaust, Christian; Thöns, Sebastian

    2016-01-01

    Methodologies on fire risk analysis in road tunnels consider numerous factors affecting risks (risk indicators) and express the results by risk measures. But only few comprehensive studies on effects of risk indicators on risk measures are available. For this reason, this study quantifies...... the effects and highlights the most important risk indicators with the aim to support further developments in risk analysis. Therefore, a system model of a road tunnel was developed to determine the risk measures. The system model can be divided into three parts: the fire part connected to the fire model Fire...... Dynamics Simulator (FDS); the evacuation part connected to the evacuation model FDS+Evac; and the frequency part connected to a model to calculate the frequency of fires. This study shows that the parts of the system model (and their most important risk indicators) affect the risk measures in the following...

  19. Fire risk and adaptation strategies in Northern Eurasian forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shvidenko, Anatoly; Schepaschenko, Dmitry

    2013-04-01

    On-going climatic changes substantially accelerate current fire regimes in Northern Eurasian ecosystems, particularly in forests. During 1998-2012, wildfires enveloped on average ~10.5 M ha year-1 in Russia with a large annual variation (between 3 and 30 M ha) and average direct carbon emissions at ~150 Tg C year-1. Catastrophic fires, which envelope large areas, spread in usually incombustible wetlands, escape from control and provide extraordinary negative impacts on ecosystems, biodiversity, economics, infrastructure, environment, and health of population, become a typical feature of the current fire regimes. There are new evidences of correlation between catastrophic fires and large-scale climatic anomalies at a continental scale. While current climatic predictions suggest the dramatic warming (at the average at 6-7 °C for the country and up to 10-12°C in some northern continental regions), any substantial increase of summer precipitation does not expected. Increase of dryness and instability of climate will impact fire risk and severity of consequences. Current models suggest a 2-3 fold increase of the number of fires by the end of this century in the boreal zone. They predict increases of the number of catastrophic fires; a significant increase in the intensity of fire and amount of consumed fuel; synergies between different types of disturbances (outbreaks of insects, unregulated anthropogenic impacts); acceleration of composition of the gas emissions due to enhanced soil burning. If boreal forests would become a typing element, the mass mortality of trees would increase fire risk and severity. Permafrost melting and subsequent change of hydrological regimes very likely will lead to the degradation and destruction of boreal forests, as well as to the widespread irreversible replacement of forests by other underproductive vegetation types. A significant feedback between warming and escalating fire regimes is very probable in Russia and particularly in the

  20. High-fire-risk behavior in critical fire areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    William S. Folkman

    1977-01-01

    Observations of fire-related behavior of wildland visitors were made in three types of areas-wilderness, established campground, and built-up commercial and residential areas-within the San Bernardino National Forest, California. Interviews were conducted with all persons so observed. Types of fire-related behavior differed markedly from one area to another, as did the...

  1. Exploratory Studies Facility Subsurface Fire Hazards Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Logan, Richard C.

    2002-01-01

    The primary objective of this Fire Hazard Analysis (FHA) is to confirm the requirements for a comprehensive fire and related hazards protection program for the Exploratory Studies Facility (ESF) are sufficient to minimize the potential for: The occurrence of a fire or related event; A fire that causes an unacceptable on-site or off-site release of hazardous or radiological material that will threaten the health and safety of employees, the public or the environment; Vital U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) programs suffering unacceptable interruptions as a result of fire and related hazards; Property losses from a fire and related events exceeding limits established by DOE; and Critical process controls and safety class systems being damaged as a result of a fire and related events

  2. Exploratory Studies Facility Subsurface Fire Hazards Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kubicek, J. L.

    2001-01-01

    The primary objective of this Fire Hazard Analysis (FHA) is to confirm the requirements for a comprehensive fire and related hazards protection program for the Exploratory Studies Facility (ESF) are sufficient to minimize the potential for: (1) The occurrence of a fire or related event. (2) A fire that causes an unacceptable on-site or off-site release of hazardous or radiological material that will threaten the health and safety of employees, the public or the environment. (3) Vital US. Department of Energy (DOE) programs suffering unacceptable interruptions as a result of fire and related hazards. (4) Property losses from a fire and related events exceeding limits established by DOE. (5) Critical process controls and safety class systems being damaged as a result of a fire and related events

  3. Deterministic analysis of mid scale outdoor fire

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vidmar, P.; Petelin, S.

    2003-01-01

    The idea behind the article is how to define fire behaviour. The work is based on an analytical study of fire origin, its development and spread. Mathematical fire model called FDS (Fire Dynamic Simulator) is used in the presented work. A CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamic) model using LES (Large Eddie Simulation) is used to calculate fire development and spread of combustion products in the environment. The fire source is located in the vicinity of the hazardous plant, power, chemical etc. The article presents the brief background of the FDS computer program and the initial and boundary conditions used in the mathematical model. Results discuss output data and check the validity of results. The work also presents some corrections of the physical model used, which influence the quality of results. The obtained results were discussed and compared with the Fire Safety Analysis report included in the Probabilistic Safety Assessment of Krsko nuclear power plant. (author)

  4. Fire hazard analysis for fusion energy experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alvares, N.J.; Hasegawa, H.K.

    1979-01-01

    The 2XIIB mirror fusion facility at Lawrence Livermore Laboratory (LLL) was used to evaluate the fire safety of state-of-the-art fusion energy experiments. The primary objective of this evaluation was to ensure the parallel development of fire safety and fusion energy technology. Through fault-tree analysis, we obtained a detailed engineering description of the 2XIIB fire protection system. This information helped us establish an optimum level of fire protection for experimental fusion energy facilities as well as evaluate the level of protection provided by various systems. Concurrently, we analyzed the fire hazard inherent to the facility using techniques that relate the probability of ignition to the flame spread and heat-release potential of construction materials, electrical and thermal insulations, and dielectric fluids. A comparison of the results of both analyses revealed that the existing fire protection system should be modified to accommodate the range of fire hazards inherent to the 2XIIB facility

  5. Quantitative and qualitative analysis of the expert and non-expert opinion in fire risk in buildings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hanea, D.M.; Jagtman, H.M.; Alphen, L.L.M.M. van; Ale, B.J.M.

    2010-01-01

    Expert judgment procedure is a method very often used in the area of risk assessments of complex systems or processes to fill in quantitative data. Although it has been proved to be a very reliable source of information when no other data are available, the choice of experts is always questioned. When the available data are limited, the seed questions cover only partially the domains of expertise, which may cause problems. Expertise is assessed not covering the full object of study but only those topics for which seed questions can be formulated. The commonly used quantitative analysis of an expert judgment exercise is combined with a qualitative analysis. The latter adds more insights to the relation between the assessor's field and statistical knowledge and their performance in an expert judgment. In addition the qualitative analysis identifies different types of seed questions. Three groups of assessors with different levels of statistical and domain knowledge are studied. The quantitative analysis shows no differences between field experts and non-experts and no differences between having advanced statistical knowledge or not. The qualitative analysis supports these findings. In addition it is found that especially technical questions are answered with larger intervals. Precaution is required when using seed questions for which the real value can be calculated, which was the case for one of the seed questions.

  6. Internal fire protection analysis for the United Kingdom EPR design

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Laid, Abdallah [Nuclear New Build Generation Company Ltd. (NNB GenCo), Barnwood (United Kingdom). EDF Energy Plc.; Cesbron, Mickael [Service Etudes et Project Thermiques et Nucleaires (SEPTEN), Lyon (France). EDF-SA

    2015-12-15

    In the deterministic design basis analysis of the United Kingdom (UK) EPR based nuclear power plants all postulated initiating events are grouped into two different types, internal faults and internal/external hazards. ''Internal Fires'' is one of the internal hazards analysed at the design stage of the UK EPR. In effect, the main safety objective for fire protection is to ensure that all the required safety functions are performed in the event of an internal fire. To achieve this safety objective, provisions for protection against fire risks are taken to: (i) limit the spread of a fire, protect the safety functions of the facility; (ii) limit the propagation of smoke and dispersion of toxic, radioactive, inflammable, corrosive or explosive materials, and (iii) ensure the achievement of a safe shutdown state, personnel evacuation and all other necessary emergency actions. This paper presents the UK EPR approach on how the above provisions are applied. Such provisions involve implementing means of fire prevention, surveillance, firefighting and limiting fire consequences, appropriate to the risks inherent to the facility. Overall, the design of the UK EPR fire protection systems is based on three types of measures: prevention, containment and control.

  7. 75 FR 40845 - Preventing Deaths and Injuries of Fire Fighters Using Risk Management Principles at Structure Fires

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-14

    ... NIOSH 141-A] Preventing Deaths and Injuries of Fire Fighters Using Risk Management Principles at... publication entitled ``Preventing Deaths and Injuries of Fire Fighters Using Risk Management Principles at... fires in unoccupied structures to using established risk management principles at all structure fires...

  8. Evaluation Logic of Main Control Board Fire Risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kang, Dae Il; Kim, Kilyoo; Lim, Ho Gon [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-05-15

    The main control board (MCB) is defined as the collection of control panels inside the main control room (MCR) of a nuclear power plant (NPP). As the MCB has the control and instrumentation circuits of redundant trains for almost all plant systems, small fires within the control panels may be detrimental to the safe shutdown capability. A big fire affecting many panels in the MCB can cause a forced MCR abandonment of the operators as well as function failures or spurious operations of the control and instrumentation-related components. If the MCR cannot be habitable, a safe shutdown from outside the MCR can be achieved and maintained at an alternate shutdown panel electrically and physically independent from the MCR. Because the MCB consist of many electrical panels, it may have internal barriers between them to prevent a fire from spreading from its origin to neighboring locations. However, most MCBs of domestic NPPs do not have internal barriers within them. If the MCB cabinets are not separated by a double wall with an air gap, the fire propagation of an MCB panel fire cannot be ruled out. Recently, Joglar et al. proposed a new evaluation logic for the MCB panel fires and mentioned that an MCB fire can be divided into propagation and non-propagating fires for abandonment and non-abandonment fire scenarios. However, they did not present the details on the fire modeling approaches and probability formulas for the fire scenarios. In this paper, a decision tree for evaluating the risk of an MCB fire is proposed to systematically determine the fire scenarios in terms of the fire modeling approaches. This paper proposed a decision tree for evaluating the risk of an MCB fire to systematically determine the fire scenarios in terms of fire modeling approaches.

  9. National Fire Risk Map for Continental USA: Creation and Validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Q; Wollersheim, M; Griffiths, S; Maddox, I

    2014-01-01

    A nation-wide fire risk map for the continental USA has been created based on a hybrid fire risk model, incorporating a combination of static risk indicators which change very slowly over time, and dynamic risk indicators that may vary significantly from week-to-week. Static risk indicators include: terrain elevation, terrain slope, terrain aspect, and distance from roads and settlements. Each of the static risk indicators are derived from Intermap's high-accuracy NEXTMap ® USA database. The dynamic risk indicators are derived from satellite-based multi-spectral imagery and provide a snapshot of the fuel-moisture conditions during fire seasons. Each of these risk indicators are combined to produce a map provided at 5m posting and normalized to the range of 0 (very low risk) and 255 (very high risk). The map has been validated in two selected areas using historical fire information

  10. Deriving forest fire ignition risk with biogeochemical process modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eastaugh, C S; Hasenauer, H

    2014-05-01

    Climate impacts the growth of trees and also affects disturbance regimes such as wildfire frequency. The European Alps have warmed considerably over the past half-century, but incomplete records make it difficult to definitively link alpine wildfire to climate change. Complicating this is the influence of forest composition and fuel loading on fire ignition risk, which is not considered by purely meteorological risk indices. Biogeochemical forest growth models track several variables that may be used as proxies for fire ignition risk. This study assesses the usefulness of the ecophysiological model BIOME-BGC's 'soil water' and 'labile litter carbon' variables in predicting fire ignition. A brief application case examines historic fire occurrence trends over pre-defined regions of Austria from 1960 to 2008. Results show that summer fire ignition risk is largely a function of low soil moisture, while winter fire ignitions are linked to the mass of volatile litter and atmospheric dryness.

  11. Deriving forest fire ignition risk with biogeochemical process modelling☆

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eastaugh, C.S.; Hasenauer, H.

    2014-01-01

    Climate impacts the growth of trees and also affects disturbance regimes such as wildfire frequency. The European Alps have warmed considerably over the past half-century, but incomplete records make it difficult to definitively link alpine wildfire to climate change. Complicating this is the influence of forest composition and fuel loading on fire ignition risk, which is not considered by purely meteorological risk indices. Biogeochemical forest growth models track several variables that may be used as proxies for fire ignition risk. This study assesses the usefulness of the ecophysiological model BIOME-BGC's ‘soil water’ and ‘labile litter carbon’ variables in predicting fire ignition. A brief application case examines historic fire occurrence trends over pre-defined regions of Austria from 1960 to 2008. Results show that summer fire ignition risk is largely a function of low soil moisture, while winter fire ignitions are linked to the mass of volatile litter and atmospheric dryness. PMID:26109905

  12. Demographic controls of future global fire risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knorr, W.; Arneth, A.; Jiang, L.

    2016-08-01

    Wildfires are an important component of terrestrial ecosystem ecology but also a major natural hazard to societies, and their frequency and spatial distribution must be better understood. At a given location, risk from wildfire is associated with the annual fraction of burned area, which is expected to increase in response to climate warming. Until recently, however, only a few global studies of future fire have considered the effects of other important global environmental change factors such as atmospheric CO2 levels and human activities, and how these influence fires in different regions. Here, we contrast the impact of climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 content on burned area with that of demographic dynamics, using ensembles of climate simulations combined with historical and projected population changes under different socio-economic development pathways for 1901-2100. Historically, humans notably suppressed wildfires. For future scenarios, global burned area will continue to decline under a moderate emissions scenario, except for low population growth and fast urbanization, but start to increase again from around mid-century under high greenhouse gas emissions. Contrary to common perception, we find that human exposure to wildfires increases in the future mainly owing to projected population growth in areas with frequent wildfires, rather than by a general increase in burned area.

  13. Studying fire mitigation strategies in multi-ownership landscapes: balancing the management of fire-dependent ecosystems and fire risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brian R. Sturtevant; Brian R. Miranda; Jian Yang; Hong S. He; Eric J. Gustafson; Robert M. Scheller

    2009-01-01

    Public forests are surrounded by land over which agency managers have no control, and whose owners expect the public forest to be a "good neighbor." Fire risk abatement on multi-owner landscapes containing flammable but fire-dependent ecosystems epitomizes the complexities of managing public lands. We report a case study that applies a landscape disturbance...

  14. Combining ungrouped and grouped wildfire data to estimate fire risk

    KAUST Repository

    Hernandez-Magallanes, I.

    2013-10-11

    © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Frequently, models are required to combine information obtained from different data sources and on different scales. In this work, we are interested in estimating the risk of wildfire ignition in the USA for a particular time and location by merging two levels of data, namely, individual points and aggregate count of points into areas. The data for federal lands consist of the point location and time of each fire. Nonfederal fires are aggregated by county for a particular year. The probability model is based on the wildfire point process. Assuming a smooth intensity function, a locally weighted likelihood fit is used, which incorporates the group effect. A logit model is used under the assumption of the existence of a latent process, and fuel conditions are included as a covariate. The model assessment is based on a residual analysis, while the False Discovery Rate detects spatial patterns. A benefit of the proposed model is that there is no need of arbitrary aggregation of individual fires into counts. A map of predicted probability of ignition for the Midwest US in 1990 is included. The predicted ignition probabilities and the estimated total number of expected fires are required for the allocation of resources.

  15. Analysis of Fire Data in Oman

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K.S. Al-Jabri

    2003-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to illustrate the problem of fire accidents in the Sultanate of Oman and their causes in order to find out how the existing data could be used as a base to improve fire resistance, to detect the weak points (vulnerability to fire in existing structures, and to minimize fire occurrences in places where it is high. This will also provide useful recommendations with regard to fire safety including causes, people’s awareness and education, etc.  Fire data in Oman were collected from two sources: The Directorate General of Civil Defence (Public Relations Department and Sultan Qaboos University library. The collected data represent the number of fires in Oman during the last decade.  It also includes fire distribution by type and averages.  The analysis shows that there is a linear increase in the number of fire accidents in the last decade with time.  Many factors are included as potential sources, which are explained in the paper, and suggestions are made for possible control.

  16. Analyzing the Risk of Fire in a Hospital Complex by “Fire Risk Assessment Method for Engineering”(FRAME

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarsangi V.* MSc,

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Aims The occurrence of fire in residential buildings, commercial complexes and large and small industries cause physical, environmental and financial damages to many different communities. Fire safety in hospitals is sensitive and it is believed that the society takes the responsibility to care sick people. The goal of this study was to use Fire Risk Assessment Method for Engineering (FRAME in a hospital complex environment and assess the level of fire risks. Materials & Methods This descriptive study was conducted in Kashan Shahid Beheshti hospital in 2013. The FRAME is designed based on the empirical and scientific knowledge and experiment and have acceptable reliability for assessing the building fire risk. Excel software was used to calculate the risk level and finally fire risk (R was calculated separately for different units. Findings Calculated Rs were less than 1for health, autoclave, office of nursing and infection control units. R1s were greater than 1 for all units. R2s were less than 1 for office of nursing and infection control units. Conclusion FRAME is an acceptable tool for assessing the risk of fire in buildings and the fire risk is high in Shahid Beheshti Hospital Complex of Kashan and damages can be intolerable in the case of fire.

  17. Repository Subsurface Preliminary Fire Hazard Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Logan, Richard C.

    2001-01-01

    This fire hazard analysis identifies preliminary design and operations features, fire, and explosion hazards, and provides a reasonable basis to establish the design requirements of fire protection systems during development and emplacement phases of the subsurface repository. This document follows the Technical Work Plan (TWP) (CRWMS M and O 2001c) which was prepared in accordance with AP-2.21Q, ''Quality Determinations and Planning for Scientific, Engineering, and Regulatory Compliance Activities''; Attachment 4 of AP-ESH-008, ''Hazards Analysis System''; and AP-3.11Q, ''Technical Reports''. The objective of this report is to establish the requirements that provide for facility nuclear safety and a proper level of personnel safety and property protection from the effects of fire and the adverse effects of fire-extinguishing agents

  18. Analysis of large urban fires

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, S.W.; Reitter, T.A.; Takata, A.N.

    1984-11-01

    Fires in urban areas caused by a nuclear burst are analyzed as a first step towards determining their smoke-generation chacteristics, which may have grave implications for global-scale climatic consequences. A chain of events and their component processes which would follow a nuclear attack are described. A numerical code is currently being developed to calculate ultimately the smoke production rate for a given attack scenario. Available models for most of the processes are incorporated into the code. Sample calculations of urban fire-development history performed in the code for an idealized uniform city are presented. Preliminary results indicate the importance of the wind, thermal radiation transmission, fuel distributions, and ignition thresholds on the urban fire spread characteristics. Future plans are to improve the existing models and develop new ones to characterize smoke production from large urban fires. 21 references, 18 figures

  19. Fire analysis. Relevant aspects from Spanish nuclear power plants experience

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fernandez, Pedro; Villar, Tomas [Empresarios Agrupados A.I.E., Madrid (Spain). Nuclear Safety Dept.

    2015-12-15

    Empresarios Agrupados A.I.E. leads the development and updating of fire analysis for the Spanish NPP's. Some of them decided to voluntarily adopt standard NFPA-805 as an alternative to the current fire protection rules. Fire Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) methodologies have been continuously evolving during recent years. This paper will briefly present experience gained in relationship with some relevant aspects of fire risk analysis. Associated circuits need to be evaluated to determine if cable faults can prevent or cause the maloperation of redundant safety related systems. If a circuit is not properly protected by an isolation device, fire damage to a cable could propagate to other safe shutdown cables. In order to check that the coordination is adequate, existing electrical protections coordination studies have been analyzed and, for some plants, additional analyses have been performed for DC and AC for instrumentation an control (I and C) systems. Spurious actuations are also a basic part of the analysis of the consequence of a fire, which should consider any possible actuation that can prevent or affect the performance of a system or safety function. In this context, it was furthermore necessary to take into account the possibility of a combination of several spurious actuations that can result in a specific consequence, according to Appendix G of NEI 00-01 Rev. 2. These are the so-called Multiple Spurious Operations (MSOs). One key element in fire analysis is the availability of validated fire models used to estimate the spread of fire and the failure time of cable raceways. NFPA 805 states that fire models shall only be applied within the limitations of the given model. The applicability of the validation results is determined using normalized parameters traditionally used in fire modeling applications. Normalized parameters assessed in NUREG-1934 may be used to compare NPP fire scenarios with validation experiments. If some of the parameters do

  20. Fire risk assessment for hydrogen at EDG/battery room

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jee, Moon Hak; Hong, Sung Yull; Choi, Kwang Hee; Jung, Hyun Jong; Park, Kyung Hyum [Korea electric Power Research Institute, Taejon (Korea, Republic of); Song, Jin Bae [KHNP, Wolsong (Korea, Republic of)

    2004-07-01

    At the design stage of Nuclear Power Plant, the fire hazard analysis for the fire zone or compartment is implemented according to the fire protection requirement and the document is required for the licensing approval. On the basis of fire hazard analysis, the evaluation for the safe shutdown capability is preceded for each fire zone that contains safety-important systems and facilities. The primary philosophy for the fire safety is to secure fire defense-in-depth at Nuclear Power Plants that represents fire prevention, fire protection, and mitigation from fire damage. One of the concerning fire zones that need quantitative fire hazard analysis as well as qualitative fire evaluation at Nuclear Power Plants is the battery room at Emergency Diesel Generator (EDG) Room. For an example, Emergency Power Supply System called as EPS at Wolsong Nuclear Power Plant generates emergency power and supply the electric power to the safety-related systems and essential facilities during the loss of on-site and off-site AC power. For the start of emergency power generator, it needs DC power from the battery units inside the EPS room. For the emergency supply of DC power, the battery at EPS room should be recharged during the standby period to compensate the reduced chemical energy that was converted to the electric energy or depleted through the natural process. During the recharge process, especially at the time of charging current becoming greater than the nominal floating current or at the time of over-charging period, the hydrogen and the oxygen are generated from the positive plate and cathodic part respectively and escaped through the vent holes or crevices. In this context, the fire hazard assessment should be done for the EPS/battery room with quantitative approach and the fire safety evaluation for the explosion of hydrogen gas must be done under the specific fire protection program at Nuclear Power Plants.

  1. Fire risk assessment for hydrogen at EDG/battery room

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jee, Moon Hak; Hong, Sung Yull; Choi, Kwang Hee; Jung, Hyun Jong; Park, Kyung Hyum; Song, Jin Bae

    2004-01-01

    At the design stage of Nuclear Power Plant, the fire hazard analysis for the fire zone or compartment is implemented according to the fire protection requirement and the document is required for the licensing approval. On the basis of fire hazard analysis, the evaluation for the safe shutdown capability is preceded for each fire zone that contains safety-important systems and facilities. The primary philosophy for the fire safety is to secure fire defense-in-depth at Nuclear Power Plants that represents fire prevention, fire protection, and mitigation from fire damage. One of the concerning fire zones that need quantitative fire hazard analysis as well as qualitative fire evaluation at Nuclear Power Plants is the battery room at Emergency Diesel Generator (EDG) Room. For an example, Emergency Power Supply System called as EPS at Wolsong Nuclear Power Plant generates emergency power and supply the electric power to the safety-related systems and essential facilities during the loss of on-site and off-site AC power. For the start of emergency power generator, it needs DC power from the battery units inside the EPS room. For the emergency supply of DC power, the battery at EPS room should be recharged during the standby period to compensate the reduced chemical energy that was converted to the electric energy or depleted through the natural process. During the recharge process, especially at the time of charging current becoming greater than the nominal floating current or at the time of over-charging period, the hydrogen and the oxygen are generated from the positive plate and cathodic part respectively and escaped through the vent holes or crevices. In this context, the fire hazard assessment should be done for the EPS/battery room with quantitative approach and the fire safety evaluation for the explosion of hydrogen gas must be done under the specific fire protection program at Nuclear Power Plants

  2. An overview of the fire risk scoping study objectives, approach, findings and follow-on efforts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nowlen, S.P.; Lambright, J.A.; Nicolette, V.F.; Bohn, M.P.

    1989-01-01

    The Fire Risk Scoping Study was sponsored by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and performed at Sandia National Laboratories. The study was initiated as a result of previous USNRC-sponsored fire research efforts that had identified certain fire risk issues which had not been addressed in previously completed commercial nuclear power plant fire risk analyses. The specific objectives of this study were (1) to review and requantify fire risk scenarios from four fire probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) in light of updated data bases made available as a result of USNRC sponsored Fire Protection Research Program and updated computer fire modeling capabilities, (2) to identify potentially significant fire risk issues that have not been previously addressed in a fire risk context and to quantify the potential impact of those identified fire risk issues where possible, and (3) to review current fire regulations and plant implementation practices for relevance to the identified unaddressed fire risk issues. 8 refs., 2 tabs

  3. Assessing Wildland Fire Risk Transmission to Communities in Northern Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fermín J. Alcasena

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available We assessed potential economic losses and transmission to residential houses from wildland fires in a rural area of central Navarra (Spain. Expected losses were quantified at the individual structure level (n = 306 in 14 rural communities by combining fire model predictions of burn probability and fire intensity with susceptibility functions derived from expert judgement. Fire exposure was estimated by simulating 50,000 fire events that replicated extreme (97th percentile historical fire weather conditions. Spatial ignition probabilities were used in the simulations to account for non-random ignitions, and were estimated from a fire occurrence model generated with an artificial neural network. The results showed that ignition probability explained most of spatial variation in risk, with economic value of structures having only a minor effect. Average expected loss to residential houses from a single wildfire event in the study area was 7955€, and ranged from a low of 740 to the high of 28,725€. Major fire flow-paths were analyzed to understand fire transmission from surrounding municipalities and showed that incoming fires from the north exhibited strong pathways into the core of the study area, and fires spreading from the south had the highest likelihood of reaching target residential structures from the longest distances (>5 km. Community firesheds revealed the scale of risk to communities and extended well beyond administrative boundaries. The results provided a quantitative risk assessment that can be used by insurance companies and local landscape managers to prioritize and allocate investments to treat wildland fuels and identify clusters of high expected loss within communities. The methodological framework can be extended to other fire-prone southern European Union countries where communities are threatened by large wildland fires.

  4. German data for risk based fire safety assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roewekamp, M.; Berg, H.P.

    1998-01-01

    Different types of data are necessary to perform risk based fire safety assessments and, in particular, to quantify the fire event tree considering the plant specific conditions. Data on fire barriers, fire detection and extinguishing, including also data on secondary effects of a fire, have to be used for quantifying the potential hazard and damage states. The existing German database on fires in nuclear power plants (NPPs) is very small. Therefore, in general generic data, mainly from US databases, are used for risk based safety assessments. Due to several differences in the plant design and conditions generic data can only be used as conservative assumptions. World-wide existing generic data on personnel failures in case of fire fighting have only to be adapted to the plant specific conditions inside the NPP to be investigated. In contrary, unavailabilities of fire barrier elements may differ strongly depending on different standards, testing requirements, etc. In addition, the operational behaviour of active fire protection equipment may vary depending on type and manufacturer. The necessity for more detailed and for additional plant specific data was the main reason for generating updated German data on the operational behaviour of active fire protection equipment/features in NPPs to support risk based fire safety analyses being recommended to be carried out as an additional tool to deterministic fire hazard analyses in the frame of safety reviews. The results of these investigations revealed a broader and more realistic database for technical reliability of active fire protection means, but improvements as well as collection of further data are still necessary. (author)

  5. Estimating vegetation dryness to optimize fire risk assessment with spot vegetation satellite data in savanna ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verbesselt, J.; Somers, B.; Lhermitte, S.; van Aardt, J.; Jonckheere, I.; Coppin, P.

    2005-10-01

    The lack of information on vegetation dryness prior to the use of fire as a management tool often leads to a significant deterioration of the savanna ecosystem. This paper therefore evaluated the capacity of SPOT VEGETATION time-series to monitor the vegetation dryness (i.e., vegetation moisture content per vegetation amount) in order to optimize fire risk assessment in the savanna ecosystem of Kruger National Park in South Africa. The integrated Relative Vegetation Index approach (iRVI) to quantify the amount of herbaceous biomass at the end of the rain season and the Accumulated Relative Normalized Difference vegetation index decrement (ARND) related to vegetation moisture content were selected. The iRVI and ARND related to vegetation amount and moisture content, respectively, were combined in order to monitor vegetation dryness and optimize fire risk assessment in the savanna ecosystems. In situ fire activity data was used to evaluate the significance of the iRVI and ARND to monitor vegetation dryness for fire risk assessment. Results from the binary logistic regression analysis confirmed that the assessment of fire risk was optimized by integration of both the vegetation quantity (iRVI) and vegetation moisture content (ARND) as statistically significant explanatory variables. Consequently, the integrated use of both iRVI and ARND to monitor vegetation dryness provides a more suitable tool for fire management and suppression compared to other traditional satellite-based fire risk assessment methods, only related to vegetation moisture content.

  6. FIRES: Fire Information Retrieval and Evaluation System - A program for fire danger rating analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patricia L. Andrews; Larry S. Bradshaw

    1997-01-01

    A computer program, FIRES: Fire Information Retrieval and Evaluation System, provides methods for evaluating the performance of fire danger rating indexes. The relationship between fire danger indexes and historical fire occurrence and size is examined through logistic regression and percentiles. Historical seasonal trends of fire danger and fire occurrence can be...

  7. Quantitative analysis of forest fire extinction efficiency

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miguel E. Castillo-Soto

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Aim of study: Evaluate the economic extinction efficiency of forest fires, based on the study of fire combat undertaken by aerial and terrestrial means. Area of study, materials and methods: Approximately 112,000 hectares in Chile. Records of 5,876 forest fires that occurred between 1998 and 2009 were analyzed. The area further provides a validation sector for results, by incorporating databases for the years 2010 and 2012. The criteria used for measuring extinction efficiency were economic value of forestry resources, Contraction Factor analysis and definition of the extinction costs function. Main results: It is possible to establish a relationship between burnt area, extinction costs and economic losses. The method proposed may be used and adapted to other fire situations, requiring unit costs for aerial and terrestrial operations, economic value of the property to be protected and speed attributes of fire spread in free advance. Research highlights: The determination of extinction efficiency in containment works of forest fires and potential projection of losses, different types of plant fuel and local conditions favoring the spread of fire broaden the admissible ranges of a, φ and Ce considerably.

  8. Heightened fire risk in Indonesia in response to increasing temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandes, K.; Baethgen, W.; Verchot, L. V.; Gutierrez-Velez, V.; Pinedo-Vasquez, M.

    2016-12-01

    In Indonesia, drought driven fires occur typically during the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), such as those of 1997 and 2015 that resulted in months-long hazardous atmospheric pollution levels in Equatorial Asia and record greenhouse gas emissions. Nonetheless, anomalously active fire seasons have also been observed in non-drought years. In this work, we investigated whether fires are impacted by temperature anomalies and if so, if the responses differ under contrasting precipitation regimes. Our findings show that when the July-October dry-season is anomalously dry, the sensitivity of fires to temperature anomalies is similar regardless of the sign of the anomalies. In contrast, in wet condition, fire risk increases sharply when the dry season is anomalously warm. We also present a characterization of near-term regional climate projections over the next few decades and the implications of continuing global temperature increase in future fire probability in Indonesia.

  9. LNG pool fire simulation for domino effect analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masum Jujuly, Muhammad; Rahman, Aziz; Ahmed, Salim; Khan, Faisal

    2015-01-01

    A three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation of liquefied natural gas (LNG) pool fire has been performed using ANSYS CFX-14. The CFD model solves the fundamental governing equations of fluid dynamics, namely, the continuity, momentum and energy equations. Several built-in sub-models are used to capture the characteristics of pool fire. The Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) equation for turbulence and the eddy-dissipation model for non-premixed combustion are used. For thermal radiation, the Monte Carlo (MC) radiation model is used with the Magnussen soot model. The CFD results are compared with a set of experimental data for validation; the results are consistent with experimental data. CFD results show that the wind speed has significant contribution on the behavior of pool fire and its domino effects. The radiation contours are also obtained from CFD post processing, which can be applied for risk analysis. The outcome of this study will be helpful for better understanding of the domino effects of pool fire in complex geometrical settings of process industries. - Highlights: • Simulation of pool fire using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model. • Integration of CFD based pool fire model with domino effect. • Application of the integrated CFD based domino effect analysis

  10. Evaluation of Human Performance Issues for Fire Risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bley, Dennis C.; Cooper, Susan E.; Forester, John A.; Kolaczkowski, Alan M.; Ramey-Smith, Ann; Thompson, Catherine M.; Whitehead, Donnie W.; Wreathall, John

    1999-01-01

    This paper summarizes the current status of the treatment of human reliability in fire risk analyses for nuclear power plants and identifies areas that need to be addressed. A new approach is suggested to improve the modeling

  11. Modeling fire susceptibility to delineate wildland-urban interface for municipal-scale fire risk management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitman, Ellen; Rapaport, Eric; Sherren, Kate

    2013-12-01

    The wildland-urban interface (WUI) is the region where development meets and intermingles with wildlands. The WUI has an elevated fire risk due to the proximity of development and residents to wildlands with natural wildfire regimes. Existing methods of delineating WUI are typically applied over a large region, use proxies for risk, and do not consider site-specific fire hazard drivers. While these models are appropriate for federal and provincial risk management, municipal managers require models intended for smaller regions. The model developed here uses the Burn-P3 fire behavior model to model WUI from local fire susceptibility (FS) in two study communities. Forest fuel code (FFC) maps for the study communities were modified using remote sensing data to produce detailed forest edges, including ladder fuels, update data currency, and add buildings and roads. The modified FFC maps used in Burn-P3 produced bimodal FS distributions for each community. The WUI in these communities was delineated as areas within community bounds where FS was greater than or equal to -1 SD from the mean FS value ([Formula: see text]), which fell in the trough of the bimodal distribution. The WUI so delineated conformed to the definition of WUI. This model extends WUI modeling for broader risk management initiatives for municipal management of risk, as it (a) considers site-specific drivers of fire behavior; (b) models risk, represented by WUI, specific to a community; and, (c) does not use proxies for risk.

  12. Fire hazards analysis for solid waste burial grounds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McDonald, K.M.

    1995-01-01

    This document comprises the fire hazards analysis for the solid waste burial grounds, including TRU trenches, low-level burial grounds, radioactive mixed waste trenches, etc. It analyzes fire potential, and fire damage potential for these facilities. Fire scenarios may be utilized in future safety analysis work, or for increasing the understanding of where hazards may exist in the present operation

  13. The state of the residential fire fatality problem in Sweden: Epidemiology, risk factors, and event typologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jonsson, Anders; Bonander, Carl; Nilson, Finn; Huss, Fredrik

    2017-09-01

    Residential fires represent the largest category of fatal fires in Sweden. The purpose of this study was to describe the epidemiology of fatal residential fires in Sweden and to identify clusters of events. Data was collected from a database that combines information on fatal fires with data from forensic examinations and the Swedish Cause of Death-register. Mortality rates were calculated for different strata using population statistics and rescue service turnout reports. Cluster analysis was performed using multiple correspondence analysis with agglomerative hierarchical clustering. Male sex, old age, smoking, and alcohol were identified as risk factors, and the most common primary injury diagnosis was exposure to toxic gases. Compared to non-fatal fires, fatal residential fires more often originated in the bedroom, were more often caused by smoking, and were more likely to occur at night. Six clusters were identified. The first two clusters were both smoking-related, but were separated into (1) fatalities that often involved elderly people, usually female, whose clothes were ignited (17% of the sample), (2) middle-aged (45-64years old), (often) intoxicated men, where the fire usually originated in furniture (30%). Other clusters that were identified in the analysis were related to (3) fires caused by technical fault, started in electrical installations in single houses (13%), (4) cooking appliances left on (8%), (5) events with unknown cause, room and object of origin (25%), and (6) deliberately set fires (7%). Fatal residential fires were unevenly distributed in the Swedish population. To further reduce the incidence of fire mortality, specialized prevention efforts that focus on the different needs of each cluster are required. Cooperation between various societal functions, e.g. rescue services, elderly care, psychiatric clinics and other social services, with an application of both human and technological interventions, should reduce residential fire

  14. Risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baron, J.H.; Nunez McLeod, J.; Rivera, S.S.

    1997-01-01

    This book contains a selection of research works performed in the CEDIAC Institute (Cuyo National University) in the area of Risk Analysis, with specific orientations to the subjects of uncertainty and sensitivity studies, software reliability, severe accident modeling, etc. This volume presents important material for all those researches who want to have an insight in the risk analysis field, as a tool to solution several problems frequently found in the engineering and applied sciences field, as well as for the academic teachers who want to keep up to date, including the new developments and improvements continuously arising in this field [es

  15. Development of a risk informed fire protection program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ribeiro, J.; McDevitt, B.; Sawyer, O.; Volk, M.A.; Drennan, J.; Sweely, C.

    2015-07-01

    Over the past decade, one of the largest challenges for the Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) Operator in the United States has been the implementation of risk-informed, performance-based (RI-PB) fire protection strategies into their fire protection program. Regardless of whether a utility decides to fully transition their licensing basis from deterministic to risk based, or if they simply complete a fire probabilistic risk assessment (FPRA) in order to augment their current program, it is clear that risk-informed, performance based fire protection strategies and the associated challenges are the growing trend in the United States and are here to stay. The experience of the nuclear industry in the United States with the implementation of RI-PB fire protection strategies can provide a great deal of insight for plants and utilities that follow, either by choice or necessity, a similar path. The similarities in the design of the United States and Spanish nuclear plants make these insights even more significant contributions to the strategy and planning for the Spanish fleet. The experience in United States will provide guidance to avoid similar missteps and better plan for the challenges of the transition process. As the Spanish fleet develops risk-informed and deterministic strategies to improve fire safety, an understanding of the challenges and lessons learned from the United States experience will save time and money. (Author)

  16. Quantitative Risk Modeling of Fire on the International Space Station

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castillo, Theresa; Haught, Megan

    2014-01-01

    The International Space Station (ISS) Program has worked to prevent fire events and to mitigate their impacts should they occur. Hardware is designed to reduce sources of ignition, oxygen systems are designed to control leaking, flammable materials are prevented from flying to ISS whenever possible, the crew is trained in fire response, and fire response equipment improvements are sought out and funded. Fire prevention and mitigation are a top ISS Program priority - however, programmatic resources are limited; thus, risk trades are made to ensure an adequate level of safety is maintained onboard the ISS. In support of these risk trades, the ISS Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) team has modeled the likelihood of fire occurring in the ISS pressurized cabin, a phenomenological event that has never before been probabilistically modeled in a microgravity environment. This paper will discuss the genesis of the ISS PRA fire model, its enhancement in collaboration with fire experts, and the results which have informed ISS programmatic decisions and will continue to be used throughout the life of the program.

  17. Computer simulations of a generic truck cask in a regulatory fire using the Container Analysis Fire Environment (CAFE) code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ju, H.; Greiner, M.; Suo-Anttila, A.

    2002-01-01

    The Container Analysis Fire Environment (CAFE) computer code is designed to predict accurately convection and radiation heat transfer to a thermally massive object engulfed in a large pool fire. It is well suited for design and risk analyses of spent nuclear fuel transport systems. CAFE employs computational fluid dynamics and several fire and radiation models. These models must be benchmarked using experimental results. In this paper, a set of wind velocity conditions are determined which allow CAFE accurately to reproduce recent heat transfer measurements for a thick walled calorimeter in a ST-1 regulatory pool fire. CAFE is then used to predict the response of an intack (thin walled) generic legal weight truck cask. The maximum temperatures reached by internal components are within safe limits. A simple 800 deg. C, grey-radiation fire model gives maximum component temperatures that are somewhat below those predicted by CAFE. (author)

  18. Western forests, fire risk, and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valerie. Rapp

    2004-01-01

    Climate warming may first show up in forests as increased growth, which occurs as warmer temperatures, increased carbon dioxide, and more precipitation encourage higher rates of photosynthesis. The second way that climate change may show up in forests is through changes in disturbance regimes—the long-term patterns of fire, drought, insects, and diseases that are basic...

  19. Western forest, fire risk, and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valerie Rapp

    2004-01-01

    Climate warming may first show up in forests as increased growth, which occurs as warmer temperatures, increased carbon dioxide, and more precipitation encourage higher rates of photosynthesis. The second way that climate change may show up in forests is through changes in disturbance regimes—the long-term patterns of fire, drought, insects, and diseases that are basic...

  20. Study on probability distribution of fire scenarios in risk assessment to emergency evacuation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chu Guanquan; Wang Jinhui

    2012-01-01

    Event tree analysis (ETA) is a frequently-used technique to analyze the probability of probable fire scenario. The event probability is usually characterized by definite value. It is not appropriate to use definite value as these estimates may be the result of poor quality statistics and limited knowledge. Without addressing uncertainties, ETA will give imprecise results. The credibility of risk assessment will be undermined. This paper presents an approach to address event probability uncertainties and analyze probability distribution of probable fire scenario. ETA is performed to construct probable fire scenarios. The activation time of every event is characterized as stochastic variable by considering uncertainties of fire growth rate and other input variables. To obtain probability distribution of probable fire scenario, Markov Chain is proposed to combine with ETA. To demonstrate the approach, a case study is presented.

  1. Fires in rooms containing electrical components - incident planning, fire fighting tactics, risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Magnusson, Tommy; Ottosson, Jan; Lindskog, BertiI; Soederquist Bende, Evy; Eriksson, Fredrik; Haffling, Stefan

    2006-12-01

    On July 1, 2005 a fire occurred within an electrical switch room at Forsmark Nuclear Power Plant. At the evaluation of the incident it was identified that the pre-fire plans did not give sufficient information in order to make the appropriate decisions. Questions raised based on the incident are how decisions are made and orders are delegated with respect to the incident command, which fire fighting tactic should be used, which types of extinguishing media should be used, what are the risks with respect to safety of staff and safety of the reactor. Lessons learned from the fire at Forsmark were that pre-incident planning was at hand but the information was not sufficient to make the correct initial decisions that might be critical for life and property. One of the most crucial ingredients in all safety related work is to utilize previous experience in order to maintain a high degree of safety. Lessons learnt are also the foundation on which the ability to construct or create strong barriers against a certain fault phenomena, fault mechanism or type of initial event. In the case of nuclear processes, fire is considered as an important and critical initial event which has to be recognized in a number of cases in order to maintain a safe process. The likelihood for a fire to represent an initial event should not be underestimated and can therefore not be neglected, probabilistically or deterministically, unless the inherent safety systems can not control the event in an acceptable manner. Regardless of safety measures and lessons learnt from previous experiences in the construction and the operation of the nuclear facility, fires can occur. Previous experiences point out that process system, e.g. systems that are part of the turbine, are more frequently subject to fire incidents compared to ordinary safety systems. Fires in electrical components, often electrical cabinets, can be difficult to handle and to extinguish quickly. This report presents the background work

  2. Combined use of weather forecasting and satellite remote sensing information for fire risk, fire and fire impact monitoring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wolfgang Knorr

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The restoration of fire-affected forest areas needs to be combined with their future protection from renewed catastrophic fires, such as those that occurred in Greece during the 2007 summer season. The present work demonstrates that the use of various sources of satellite data in conjunction with weather forecast information is capable of providing valuable information for the characterization of fire danger with the purpose of protecting the Greek national forest areas. This study shows that favourable meteorological conditions have contributed to the fire outbreak during the days of the unusually damaging fires in Peloponnese as well as Euboia (modern Greek: Evia at the end of August 2007. During those days, Greece was located between an extended high pressure system in Central Europe and a low pressure system in the Middle East. Their combination resulted in strong north-northeasterly winds in the Aegean Sea. As a consequence, strong winds were also observed in the regions of Evia and Peloponnese, especially in mountainous areas. The analysis of satellite images showing smoke emitted from the fires corroborates the results from the weather forecasts. A further analysis using the Fraction of Absorbed Photosyntetically Active Radiation (FAPAR as an indicator of active vegetation shows the extent of the destruction caused by the fire. The position of the burned areas coincides with that of the active fires detected in the earlier satellite image. Using the annual maximum FAPAR as an indicator of regional vegetation density, it was found that only regions with relatively high FAPAR were burned.

  3. Effects of risk attitudes on extended attack fire management decisionmaking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donald G. MacGregor; Armando González-Cabán

    2009-01-01

    Fire management inherently involves the assessment and management of risk, and decision making under uncertainty. Although organizational standards and guides are an important determinant of how decision problems are structured and framed, decision makers may view risk-based decisions from a perspective that is unique to their background and experience. Previous...

  4. Assessing fire risk in the wildland-urban interface.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert G. Haight; David T. Cleland; Roger B. Hammer; Volker B. Radeloff; T. Scott Rupp

    2004-01-01

    Identifying areas of the wildland-urban interface (WUI) that are prone to severe wildfire is an important step in prioritizing fire prevention and preparedness projects. Our objective is to determine at a regional scale the relative risk of severe wildfire in WUI areas and the numbers of people and houses in high-risk areas. For a study area in northern lower Michigan...

  5. Catching fire? Social interactions, beliefs, and wildfire risk mitigation behaviors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katherine Dickinson; Hannah Brenkert-Smith; Patricia Champ; Nicholas Flores

    2015-01-01

    Social interactions are widely recognized as a potential influence on risk-related behaviors. We present a mediation model in which social interactions (classified as formal/informal and generic-fire-specific) are associated with beliefs about wildfire risk and mitigation options, which in turn shape wildfire mitigation behaviors. We test this model using survey data...

  6. Operating room fires in otolaryngology: risk factors and prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Lee P; Roy, Soham

    2011-01-01

    The aim of the study was to characterize the causes of operating room (OR) fires in otolaryngology. A questionnaire was designed to elicit the characteristics of OR fires experienced by otolaryngologists. The survey was advertised to 8523 members of the American Academy of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery. Three hundred forty-nine questionnaires were completed. Eighty-eight surgeons (25.2%) witnessed at least one OR fire in their career, 10 experienced 2 fires each, and 2 reported 5 fires each. Of 106 reported fires, details were available for 100. The most common ignition sources were an electrosurgical unit (59%), a laser (32%), and a light cord (7%). Twenty-seven percent of fires occurred during endoscopic airway surgery, 24% during oropharyngeal surgery, 23% during cutaneous or transcutaneous surgery of the head and neck, and 18% during tracheostomy; 7% were related to a light cord, and 1% was related to an anesthesia machine. Eighty-one percent of fires occurred while supplemental oxygen was in use. Common fuels included an endotracheal tube (31%), OR drapes/towels (18%), and flash fire (where no substrate burned) (11%). Less common fuels included alcohol-based preparation solution, gauze sponges, patient's hair or skin, electrosurgical unit with retrofitted insulation over the tip, tracheostomy tube, tonsil sponge, suction tubing, a cottonoid pledget, and a red rubber catheter. OR fire may occur in a wide variety of clinical settings; endoscopic airway surgery, oropharyngeal surgery, cutaneous surgery, and tracheostomy present the highest risk for otolaryngologists. Electrosurgical devices and lasers are the most likely to produce ignition. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Fire Risk in MTBF Evaluation for UPS System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefano Elia

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The reliability improvement of no-break redundant electrical systems is the first aim of the proposed strategy. The failure of some UPS (Uninterruptible Power Supply system may lead to the fire occurrence. The most used electrical configurations are presented and discussed in the paper. The innovation of the proposed method consists of taking into account the fire risk to improve the accuracy of wiring configuration and component’s failure rate. Thorough research on MTBF (Mean Time Between Failure data has been performed for each wiring component and UPS. The fire risk is taken into account introducing an equivalent fire block in the Reliability Block Diagram scheme; it has an MTBF value calculated form yearly statistics of UPS fire events. The reliability of the most used UPS electrical configurations is evaluated by means of the RBD method. Different electrical systems have been investigated and compared based on MTBF. The importance of fire compartmentation between two or more UPS’ connected in parallel is proved here.

  8. Improved Methods for Fire Risk Assessment in Low-Income and Informal Settlements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Twigg

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Fires cause over 300,000 deaths annually worldwide and leave millions more with permanent injuries: some 95% of these deaths are in low- and middle-income countries. Burn injury risk is strongly associated with low-income and informal (or slum settlements, which are growing rapidly in an urbanising world. Fire policy and mitigation strategies in poorer countries are constrained by inadequate data on incidence, impacts, and causes, which is mainly due to a lack of capacity and resources for data collection, analysis, and modelling. As a first step towards overcoming such challenges, this project reviewed the literature on the subject to assess the potential of a range of methods and tools for identifying, assessing, and addressing fire risk in low-income and informal settlements; the process was supported by an expert workshop at University College London in May 2016. We suggest that community-based risk and vulnerability assessment methods, which are widely used in disaster risk reduction, could be adapted to urban fire risk assessment, and could be enhanced by advances in crowdsourcing and citizen science for geospatial data creation and collection. To assist urban planners, emergency managers, and community organisations who are working in resource-constrained settings to identify and assess relevant fire risk factors, we also suggest an improved analytical framework based on the Haddon Matrix.

  9. Improved Methods for Fire Risk Assessment in Low-Income and Informal Settlements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Twigg, John; Christie, Nicola; Haworth, James; Osuteye, Emmanuel; Skarlatidou, Artemis

    2017-02-01

    Fires cause over 300,000 deaths annually worldwide and leave millions more with permanent injuries: some 95% of these deaths are in low- and middle-income countries. Burn injury risk is strongly associated with low-income and informal (or slum) settlements, which are growing rapidly in an urbanising world. Fire policy and mitigation strategies in poorer countries are constrained by inadequate data on incidence, impacts, and causes, which is mainly due to a lack of capacity and resources for data collection, analysis, and modelling. As a first step towards overcoming such challenges, this project reviewed the literature on the subject to assess the potential of a range of methods and tools for identifying, assessing, and addressing fire risk in low-income and informal settlements; the process was supported by an expert workshop at University College London in May 2016. We suggest that community-based risk and vulnerability assessment methods, which are widely used in disaster risk reduction, could be adapted to urban fire risk assessment, and could be enhanced by advances in crowdsourcing and citizen science for geospatial data creation and collection. To assist urban planners, emergency managers, and community organisations who are working in resource-constrained settings to identify and assess relevant fire risk factors, we also suggest an improved analytical framework based on the Haddon Matrix.

  10. FRANX. Application for analysis and quantification of the APS fire

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Snchez, A.; Osorio, F.; Ontoso, N.

    2014-01-01

    The FRANX application has been developed by EPRI within the Risk and Reliability User Group in order to facilitate the process of quantification and updating APS Fire (also covers floods and earthquakes). By applying fire scenarios are quantified in the central integrating the tasks performed during the APS fire. This paper describes the main features of the program to allow quantification of an APS Fire. (Author)

  11. WHC-SD-W252-FHA-001, Rev. 0: Preliminary fire hazard analysis for Phase II Liquid Effluent Treatment and Disposal Facility, Project W-252

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barilo, N.F.

    1995-01-01

    A Fire Hazards Analysis was performed to assess the risk from fire and other related perils and the capability of the facility to withstand these hazards. This analysis will be used to support design of the facility

  12. Economic efficiency and risk character of fire management programs, Northern Rocky Mountains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas J. Mills; Frederick W. Bratten

    1988-01-01

    Economic efficiency and risk have long been considered during the selection of fire management programs and the design of fire management polices. The risk considerations was largely subjective, however, and efficiency has only recently been calculated for selected portions of the fire management program. The highly stochastic behavior of the fire system and the high...

  13. Sensitivity Analysis of a Simplified Fire Dynamic Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Lars Schiøtt; Nielsen, Anker

    2015-01-01

    This paper discusses a method for performing a sensitivity analysis of parameters used in a simplified fire model for temperature estimates in the upper smoke layer during a fire. The results from the sensitivity analysis can be used when individual parameters affecting fire safety are assessed...

  14. Integrating fire management analysis into land management planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas J. Mills

    1983-01-01

    The analysis of alternative fire management programs should be integrated into the land and resource management planning process, but a single fire management analysis model cannot meet all planning needs. Therefore, a set of simulation models that are analytically separate from integrated land management planning models are required. The design of four levels of fire...

  15. Time fluctuation analysis of forest fire sequences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vega Orozco, Carmen D.; Kanevski, Mikhaïl; Tonini, Marj; Golay, Jean; Pereira, Mário J. G.

    2013-04-01

    Forest fires are complex events involving both space and time fluctuations. Understanding of their dynamics and pattern distribution is of great importance in order to improve the resource allocation and support fire management actions at local and global levels. This study aims at characterizing the temporal fluctuations of forest fire sequences observed in Portugal, which is the country that holds the largest wildfire land dataset in Europe. This research applies several exploratory data analysis measures to 302,000 forest fires occurred from 1980 to 2007. The applied clustering measures are: Morisita clustering index, fractal and multifractal dimensions (box-counting), Ripley's K-function, Allan Factor, and variography. These algorithms enable a global time structural analysis describing the degree of clustering of a point pattern and defining whether the observed events occur randomly, in clusters or in a regular pattern. The considered methods are of general importance and can be used for other spatio-temporal events (i.e. crime, epidemiology, biodiversity, geomarketing, etc.). An important contribution of this research deals with the analysis and estimation of local measures of clustering that helps understanding their temporal structure. Each measure is described and executed for the raw data (forest fires geo-database) and results are compared to reference patterns generated under the null hypothesis of randomness (Poisson processes) embedded in the same time period of the raw data. This comparison enables estimating the degree of the deviation of the real data from a Poisson process. Generalizations to functional measures of these clustering methods, taking into account the phenomena, were also applied and adapted to detect time dependences in a measured variable (i.e. burned area). The time clustering of the raw data is compared several times with the Poisson processes at different thresholds of the measured function. Then, the clustering measure value

  16. Risks due to fires at Big Rock Point

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brinsfield, W.A.; Blanchard, D.P.

    1983-01-01

    The unique and older designs of the Big Rock Point nuclear plant is such that fires contribute significantly to the probability of core damage predicted in the probabilistic risk assessment performed for this plant. The methodology employed to determine this contribution reflects the unique, as constructed, plant design, while systematically and logically addressing the true effect of fires on the operation of the plant and the safety of the public. As a result of the methodology utilized in the PRA, recommendations are made which minimize the risk of core damage due to fires. Included in these recommendations is a proposal for equipment and controls to be included on the Big Rock Point alternate shutdown panel

  17. Urban users of wildland areas as forest fire risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    William S. Folkman

    1979-01-01

    A telephone survey of 1500 households in metropolitan Los Angeles and San Francisco was made to (1) determine extent of wildland use by residents of the two metropolitan areas, reasons for non-use, and the characteristics of users; (2) describe and analyze activities, knowledge, and attitudes of users which may contribute to their fire risk; and (3) assess selected...

  18. A different approach to quantifying fire risks when decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hay, Adrian

    1991-01-01

    This article outlines an alternative approach to fire safety design which involves decision making on the basis of risk considerations. The methodology is being developed in conjunction with the nuclear industry but is considered equally applicable to other industrial facilities. (author)

  19. Nuclear power plant fire protection: philosophy and analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berry, D.L.

    1980-05-01

    This report combines a fire severity analysis technique with a fault tree methodology for assessing the importance to nuclear power plant safety of certain combinations of components and systems. Characteristics unique to fire, such as propagation induced by the failure of barriers, have been incorporated into the methodology. By applying the resulting fire analysis technique to actual conditions found in a representative nuclear power plant, it is found that some safety and nonsafety areas are both highly vulnerable to fire spread and impotant to overall safety, while other areas prove to be of marginal importance. Suggestions are made for further experimental and analytical work to supplement the fire analysis method

  20. Risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Correa Lizarazu, X.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation Colombia risk evaluation experiences, sanitarian regulations evolution, chemical dangers food, biological dangers food, codex alimentarius, trade, industrial effects, dangers identification, data collection and risk profile

  1. Internal fire analysis screening methodology for the Salem Nuclear Generating Station

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eide, S.; Bertucio, R.; Quilici, M.; Bearden, R.

    1989-01-01

    This paper reports on an internal fire analysis screening methodology that has been utilized for the Salem Nuclear Generating Station (SNGS) Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). The methodology was first developed and applied in the Brunswick Steam Electric Plant (BSEP) PRA. The SNGS application includes several improvements and extensions to the original methodology. The SNGS approach differs significantly from traditional fire analysis methodologies by providing a much more detailed treatment of transient combustibles. This level of detail results in a model which is more usable for assisting in the management of fire risk at the plant

  2. Rules for preventing chemical risks: fire protection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1985-02-01

    The Fundamental Safety Rules applicable to certain types of nuclear installation are intended to clarify the conditions of which observance, for the type of installation concerned and for the subject that they deal with, is considered as equivalent to compliance with regulatory French technical practice. These Rules should facilitate safety analysises and the clear understanding between persons interested in matters related to nuclear safety. They in no way reduce the operator's liability and pose no obstacle to statutory provisions in force. For any installation to which a Fundamental Safety Rule applies according to the foregoing paragraph, the operator may be relieved from application of the Rule if he shows proof that the safety objectives set by the Rule are attained by other means that he proposes within the framework of statutory procedures. Furthermore, the Central Service for the Safety of Nuclear Installations reserves the right at all times to alter any Fundamental Safety Rule, as required, should it deem, this necessary, while specifying the applicability conditions. The present rule defines the dispositions to take in account for avoid fire hazards in nuclear facilities (Power reactors and accelerators are excluded) [fr

  3. Advanced analysis of forest fire clustering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanevski, Mikhail; Pereira, Mario; Golay, Jean

    2017-04-01

    Analysis of point pattern clustering is an important topic in spatial statistics and for many applications: biodiversity, epidemiology, natural hazards, geomarketing, etc. There are several fundamental approaches used to quantify spatial data clustering using topological, statistical and fractal measures. In the present research, the recently introduced multi-point Morisita index (mMI) is applied to study the spatial clustering of forest fires in Portugal. The data set consists of more than 30000 fire events covering the time period from 1975 to 2013. The distribution of forest fires is very complex and highly variable in space. mMI is a multi-point extension of the classical two-point Morisita index. In essence, mMI is estimated by covering the region under study by a grid and by computing how many times more likely it is that m points selected at random will be from the same grid cell than it would be in the case of a complete random Poisson process. By changing the number of grid cells (size of the grid cells), mMI characterizes the scaling properties of spatial clustering. From mMI, the data intrinsic dimension (fractal dimension) of the point distribution can be estimated as well. In this study, the mMI of forest fires is compared with the mMI of random patterns (RPs) generated within the validity domain defined as the forest area of Portugal. It turns out that the forest fires are highly clustered inside the validity domain in comparison with the RPs. Moreover, they demonstrate different scaling properties at different spatial scales. The results obtained from the mMI analysis are also compared with those of fractal measures of clustering - box counting and sand box counting approaches. REFERENCES Golay J., Kanevski M., Vega Orozco C., Leuenberger M., 2014: The multipoint Morisita index for the analysis of spatial patterns. Physica A, 406, 191-202. Golay J., Kanevski M. 2015: A new estimator of intrinsic dimension based on the multipoint Morisita index

  4. Western spruce budworm outbreaks did not increase fire risk over the last three centuries: A dendrochronological analysis of inter-disturbance synergism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aquila Flower; Daniel G. Gavin; Emily K. Heyerdahl; Russell A. Parsons; Gregory M. Cohn

    2014-01-01

    Insect outbreaks are often assumed to increase the severity or probability of fire occurrence through increased fuel availability, while fires may in turn alter susceptibility of forests to subsequent insect outbreaks through changes in the spatial distribution of suitable host trees. However, little is actually known about the potential synergisms between these...

  5. Investigation of Lab Fire Prevention Management System of Combining Root Cause Analysis and Analytic Hierarchy Process with Event Tree Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheng-Chan Shih

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposed a new approach, combining root cause analysis (RCA, analytic hierarchy process (AHP, and event tree analysis (ETA in a loop to systematically evaluate various laboratory safety prevention strategies. First, 139 fire accidents were reviewed to identify the root causes and draw out prevention strategies. Most fires were caused due to runaway reactions, operation error and equipment failure, and flammable material release. These mostly occurred in working places of no prompt fire protection. We also used AHP to evaluate the priority of these strategies and found that chemical fire prevention strategy is the most important control element, and strengthening maintenance and safety inspection intensity is the most important action. Also together with our surveys results, we proposed that equipment design is also critical for fire prevention. Therefore a technical improvement was propounded: installing fire detector, automatic sprinkler, and manual extinguisher in the lab hood as proactive fire protections. ETA was then used as a tool to evaluate laboratory fire risks. The results indicated that the total risk of a fire occurring decreases from 0.0351 to 0.0042 without/with equipment taking actions. Establishing such system can make Environment, Health and Safety (EH&S office not only analyze and prioritize fire prevention policies more practically, but also demonstrate how effective protective equipment improvement can achieve and the probabilities of the initiating event developing into a serious accident or controlled by the existing safety system.

  6. THERMAL HYDRAULIC ANALYSIS OF FIRE DIVERTOR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    C.B. bAXI; M.A. ULRICKSON; D.E. DRIMEYER; P. HEITZENROEDER

    2000-01-01

    The Fusion Ignition Research Experiment (FIRE) is being designed as a next step in the US magnetic fusion program. The FIRE tokamak has a major radius of 2 m, a minor radius of 0.525 m, and liquid nitrogen cooled copper coils. The aim is to produce a pulse length of 20 s with a plasma current of 6.6 MA and with alpha dominated heating. The outer divertor and baffle of FIRE are water cooled. The worst thermal condition for the outer divertor and baffle is the baseline D-T operating mode (10 T, 6.6 MA, 20 s) with a plasma exhaust power of 67 MW and a peak heat flux of 20 MW/m 2 . A swirl tape (ST) heat transfer enhancement method is used in the outer divertor cooling channels to increase the heat transfer coefficient and the critical heat flux (CHF). The plasma-facing surface consists of tungsten brush. The finite element (FE) analysis shows that for an inlet water temperature of 30 C, inlet pressure of 1.5 MPa and a flow velocity of 10 m/s, the incident critical heat flux is greater than 30 MW/m 2 . The peak copper temperature is 490 C, peak tungsten temperature is 1560 C, and the pressure drop is less than 0.5 MPa. All these results fulfill the design requirements

  7. Sensitivity Analysis on Fire Modeling of Main Control Board Fire Using Fire Dynamics Simulator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, Dae Il; Lim, Ho Gon

    2015-01-01

    In this study, sensitivity analyses for an MCB fire were performed to identify the effects on the MCR forced abandonment time according to the changes of height and number for fire initiation places. Hanul Unit 3 NPP was selected as a reference plant for this study. In this study, sensitivity analyses for an MCB fire were performed to identify the effects on the MCR forced abandonment time according to the changes of height and number of fire initiation places. A main control board (MCB) fire can cause a forced main control room (MCR) abandonment of the operators as well as the function failures or spurious operations of the control and instrumentation-related components. If the MCR cannot be habitable, a safe shutdown from outside the MCR can be achieved and maintained at an alternate shutdown panel independent from the MCR. When the fire modeling for an electrical cabinet such as an MCB was performed, its many input parameters can affect the fire simulation results. This study results showed that the decrease in the height of fire ignition place and the use of single fire ignition place in fire modeling for the propagating fire shortened MCR abandonment time

  8. Sensitivity Analysis on Fire Modeling of Main Control Board Fire Using Fire Dynamics Simulator

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kang, Dae Il; Lim, Ho Gon [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-10-15

    In this study, sensitivity analyses for an MCB fire were performed to identify the effects on the MCR forced abandonment time according to the changes of height and number for fire initiation places. Hanul Unit 3 NPP was selected as a reference plant for this study. In this study, sensitivity analyses for an MCB fire were performed to identify the effects on the MCR forced abandonment time according to the changes of height and number of fire initiation places. A main control board (MCB) fire can cause a forced main control room (MCR) abandonment of the operators as well as the function failures or spurious operations of the control and instrumentation-related components. If the MCR cannot be habitable, a safe shutdown from outside the MCR can be achieved and maintained at an alternate shutdown panel independent from the MCR. When the fire modeling for an electrical cabinet such as an MCB was performed, its many input parameters can affect the fire simulation results. This study results showed that the decrease in the height of fire ignition place and the use of single fire ignition place in fire modeling for the propagating fire shortened MCR abandonment time.

  9. Analysis of fire and smoke threat to off-gas HEPA filters in a transuranium processing plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alvares, N.J.

    1988-01-01

    The author performed an analysis of fire risk to the high-efficiency particulate air (HEPA) filters that provide ventilation containment for a transuranium processing plant at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory. A fire-safety survey by an independent fire-protection consulting company had identified the HEPA filters in the facility's off-gas containment ventilation system as being at risk from fire effects. Independently studied were the ventilation networks and flow dynamics, and typical fuel loads were analyzed. It was found that virtually no condition for fire initiation exists and that, even if a fire started, its consequences would be minimal as a result of standard shut-down procedures. Moreover, the installed fire-protection system would limit any fire and thus would further reduce smoke or heat exposure to the ventilation components. 4 references, 4 figures, 5 tables

  10. More stapler firings increase the risk of perioperative morbidity after laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Major, Piotr; Wysocki, Michał; Pędziwiatr, Michał; Pisarska, Magdalena; Małczak, Piotr; Wierdak, Mateusz; Dembiński, Marcin; Migaczewski, Marcin; Rubinkiewicz, Mateusz; Budzyński, Andrzej

    2018-03-01

    Staple-line bleeding and leakage are the most common serious complications of laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy. The relationship between multiple stapler firings and higher risk of postoperative complications is well defined in colorectal surgery but has not been addressed in bariatric procedures so far. Identification of new factors such as "the numbers of stapler firings used during laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy (LSG)" as a predictor for complications can lead to optimization of the patient care at bariatric centers. To determine the association between perioperative morbidity and the number of stapler firings during laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy. This observational study was based on retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data in patients operated on for morbid obesity in a teaching hospital/tertiary referral center for general surgery. The patients who underwent LSG were analyzed in terms of the number of stapler firings used as a new potential risk predictor for postoperative complications after surgery, adjusting for other patient- and treatment-related factors. The study included 333 patients (209 women, 124 men, mean age: 40 ±11). During the first 30 days after surgery, complications were observed in 18 (5.41%) patients. Multivariate analysis showed that prolonging operative time increased morbidity (every minute, OR = 1.01; 95% CI: 1.00-1.02) and the complication rate increased with the number of stapler firings (every firing, OR = 1.91; 95% CI: 1.09-3.33; p = 0.023). Additional stapler firings above the usual number and a prolonged operation should alert a surgeon and the whole team about increased risk of postoperative complications.

  11. Fire debris analysis for forensic fire investigation using laser induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Soojin; Yoh, Jack J.

    2017-08-01

    The possibility verification of the first attempt to apply LIBS to arson investigation was performed. LIBS has capabilities for real time in-situ analysis and depth profiling. It can provide valuable information about the fire debris that are complementary to the classification of original sample components and combustion residues. In this study, fire debris was analyzed to determine the ignition source and existence of a fire accelerant using LIBS spectra and depth profiling analysis. Fire debris chemical composition and carbon layer thickness determines the possible ignition source while the carbon layer thickness of combusted samples represents the degree of sample carbonization. When a sample is combusted with fire accelerants, a thicker carbon layer is formed because the burning rate is increased. Therefore, depth profiling can confirm the existence of combustion accelerants, which is evidence of arson. Also investigation of fire debris by depth profiling is still possible when a fire is extinguished with water from fire hose. Such data analysis and in-situ detection of forensic signals via the LIBS may assist fire investigation at crime scenes.

  12. Analysis of sodium pool fire in SFEF for assessing the limiting pool fire

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mangarjuna Rao, P.; Ramesh, S.S.; Nashine, B.K.; Kasinathan, N.; Chellapandi, P.

    2011-01-01

    Accidental sodium leaks and resultant sodium fires in Liquid Metal Fast Breeder Reactor (LMFBR) systems can create a threat to the safe operation of the plant. To avoid this defence-in depth approach is implemented from the design stage of reactor itself. Rapid detection of sodium leak and fast dumping of the sodium into the storage tank of a defective circuit, leak collection trays, adequate lining of load bearing structural concrete and extinguishment of the sodium fire are the important defensive measures in the design, construction and operation of a LMFBR for protection against sodium leaks and their resultant fires. Evaluation of sodium leak events and their consequences by conducting large scale engineering experiments is very essential for effective implementation of the above protection measures for sodium fire safety. For this purpose a Sodium Fire Experimental Facility (SFEF) is constructed at SED, IGCAR. SFEF is having an experimental hall of size 9 m x 6 m x 10 m with 540 m 3 volume and its design pressure is 50 kPa. It is a concrete structure and provided with SS 304 liner, which is fixed to the inside surfaces of walls, ceiling and floor. A leak tight door of size (1.8 m x 2.0 m) is provided to the experimental hall and the facility is provided with a sodium equipment hall and a control room. Experimental evaluation of sodium pool fire consequences is an important activity in the LMFBR sodium fire safety related studies. An experimental program has been planned for different types of sodium fire studies in SFEF. A prior to that numerical analysis have been carried out for enclosed sodium pool fires using SOFIRE-II sodium pool fire code for SFEF experimental hall configuration to evaluate the limiting pool fire. This paper brings out results of the analysis carried out for this purpose. Limiting pool fire of SFEF depends on the exposed surface area of the pool, amount of sodium in the pool, oxygen concentration and initial sodium temperature. Limiting

  13. Developing an assessment of fire-setting to guide treatment in secure settings: the St Andrew's Fire and Arson Risk Instrument (SAFARI).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, Clive G; Banyard, Ellen; Fulton, Barbara; Hollin, Clive R

    2014-09-01

    Arson and fire-setting are highly prevalent among patients in secure psychiatric settings but there is an absence of valid and reliable assessment instruments and no evidence of a significant approach to intervention. To develop a semi-structured interview assessment specifically for fire-setting to augment structured assessments of risk and need. The extant literature was used to frame interview questions relating to the antecedents, behaviour and consequences necessary to formulate a functional analysis. Questions also covered readiness to change, fire-setting self-efficacy, the probability of future fire-setting, barriers to change, and understanding of fire-setting behaviour. The assessment concludes with indications for assessment and a treatment action plan. The inventory was piloted with a sample of women in secure care and was assessed for comprehensibility, reliability and validity. Staff rated the St Andrews Fire and Risk Instrument (SAFARI) as acceptable to patients and easy to administer. SAFARI was found to be comprehensible by over 95% of the general population, to have good acceptance, high internal reliability, substantial test-retest reliability and validity. SAFARI helps to provide a clear explanation of fire-setting in terms of the complex interplay of antecedents and consequences and facilitates the design of an individually tailored treatment programme in sympathy with a cognitive-behavioural approach. Further studies are needed to verify the reliability and validity of SAFARI with male populations and across settings.

  14. An analysis of the investment risk related to the integration of a supercritical coal-fired combined heat and power plant with an absorption installation for CO2 separation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bartela, Łukasz; Skorek-Osikowska, Anna; Kotowicz, Janusz

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Two variants of a CHP plant – with and without integration with CCS were analyzed. • For the CHP plant main investment risk factors were identified. • For two variants risk analyses based on Monte Carlo method have been carried out. • For evaluation of the investment risk four indices were defined and calculated. - Abstract: For two variants of a supercritical coal-fired combined heat and power plant a thermodynamic, economic and risk analyses were carried out. The first variant consists of a unit working without realization of CO 2 capture process. The second one is the unit integrated with a chemical absorption CO 2 capture installation. In this variant the heat required for the desorption process is supplied with steam extracted from the steam turbine. The developed model of the CHP plant allowed to obtain main operation characteristics for annual change of load. For the two analyzed variants the characteristics of the amount of produced electricity (gross and net), generated heat and consumed chemical energy of fuel, as a function of the cogeneration unit operation time per year, were determined. In the next stage of calculations these characteristics were required to carry out the economic and risk analysis. Economic performances were evaluated in terms of the break-even price of electricity. The performed analysis proves that both investment projects will achieve the same economic effect, i.e. 85.26 €/MW h, if the price of emissions allowances reaches the value of 47.88 €/MgCO 2 . In this case, the potentially better variant of the system may be indicated based on the result of the risk analysis. In order to perform the risk analysis the main technical and economic risk factors concerning implementation of this technology were identified. The risk analysis was conducted with the use of Monte Carlo method. Based on the determined cumulative probability curves of obtaining specified values of the break-even price of electricity, it

  15. Development and validation of sodium fire analysis code ASSCOPS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ohno, Shuji

    2001-01-01

    A version 2.1 of the ASSCOPS sodium fire analysis code was developed to evaluate the thermal consequences of a sodium leak and consequent fire in LMFBRs. This report describes the computational models and the validation studies using the code. The ASSCOPS calculates sodium droplet and pool fire, and consequential heat/mass transfer behavior. Analyses of sodium pool or spray fire experiments confirmed that this code and parameters used in the validation studies gave valid results on the thermal consequences of sodium leaks and fires. (author)

  16. Development of fire risk assessment method caused by earthquake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mitomo, Nobuo; Matsukura, Hiroshi; Matsuoka, Takeshi; Suzuki, Kazutaka

    2000-01-01

    The purpose of this research is to establish the assessment method of the risk of the multiple fires caused by earthquake, in the framework of PSA. In order to establish this method, we have settled four tasks and started a five years research project in 1999 for five years. These results will be useful for not only nuclear power plants but also chemical plants, traffic systems etc. (author)

  17. Potential fire or explosion risks in reprocessing plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lefort, G.

    1983-05-01

    Installation for reprocessing are large chemical plants handling large quantities of inflammable solvents and products allowing large risk of fire. Further, the chemical process involves the use of oxidizer and reducer agents which can have a very strong chemical activity and by certain circumstances create overpressures or large explosions. This paper shows the principal radioactive consequences we can retain in safety analyses. As an example the combustion phenomenon involved in a solid waste storage silo with irradiated uranium traces is described [fr

  18. Safety improvements made at the Loviisa nuclear power plant to reduce fire risks originating from the turbine generators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Virolainen, T.; Marttila, J.; Aulamo, H.

    1998-01-01

    Comprehensive upgrading measures have been completed for the Loviisa Nuclear Power Plant (modified VVER440/V213). These were carried out from the start of the design phase and during operation to ensure safe plant shutdown in the event of a large turbine generator oil fire. These modifications were made mainly on a deterministic basis according to specific risk studies and fire analyses. As part of the probabilistic safety assessment, a fire risk analysis was made that confirmed the importance of these upgrading measures. In fact, they should be considered as design basis modifications for all VVER440 plants. (author)

  19. Survival analysis and classification methods for forest fire size.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tremblay, Pier-Olivier; Duchesne, Thierry; Cumming, Steven G

    2018-01-01

    Factors affecting wildland-fire size distribution include weather, fuels, and fire suppression activities. We present a novel application of survival analysis to quantify the effects of these factors on a sample of sizes of lightning-caused fires from Alberta, Canada. Two events were observed for each fire: the size at initial assessment (by the first fire fighters to arrive at the scene) and the size at "being held" (a state when no further increase in size is expected). We developed a statistical classifier to try to predict cases where there will be a growth in fire size (i.e., the size at "being held" exceeds the size at initial assessment). Logistic regression was preferred over two alternative classifiers, with covariates consistent with similar past analyses. We conducted survival analysis on the group of fires exhibiting a size increase. A screening process selected three covariates: an index of fire weather at the day the fire started, the fuel type burning at initial assessment, and a factor for the type and capabilities of the method of initial attack. The Cox proportional hazards model performed better than three accelerated failure time alternatives. Both fire weather and fuel type were highly significant, with effects consistent with known fire behaviour. The effects of initial attack method were not statistically significant, but did suggest a reverse causality that could arise if fire management agencies were to dispatch resources based on a-priori assessment of fire growth potentials. We discuss how a more sophisticated analysis of larger data sets could produce unbiased estimates of fire suppression effect under such circumstances.

  20. Survival analysis and classification methods for forest fire size

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-01-01

    Factors affecting wildland-fire size distribution include weather, fuels, and fire suppression activities. We present a novel application of survival analysis to quantify the effects of these factors on a sample of sizes of lightning-caused fires from Alberta, Canada. Two events were observed for each fire: the size at initial assessment (by the first fire fighters to arrive at the scene) and the size at “being held” (a state when no further increase in size is expected). We developed a statistical classifier to try to predict cases where there will be a growth in fire size (i.e., the size at “being held” exceeds the size at initial assessment). Logistic regression was preferred over two alternative classifiers, with covariates consistent with similar past analyses. We conducted survival analysis on the group of fires exhibiting a size increase. A screening process selected three covariates: an index of fire weather at the day the fire started, the fuel type burning at initial assessment, and a factor for the type and capabilities of the method of initial attack. The Cox proportional hazards model performed better than three accelerated failure time alternatives. Both fire weather and fuel type were highly significant, with effects consistent with known fire behaviour. The effects of initial attack method were not statistically significant, but did suggest a reverse causality that could arise if fire management agencies were to dispatch resources based on a-priori assessment of fire growth potentials. We discuss how a more sophisticated analysis of larger data sets could produce unbiased estimates of fire suppression effect under such circumstances. PMID:29320497

  1. Utilization of the safety functional analysis techniques to optimize the separation requirements in case of fire

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alvarez, L.M.

    1983-01-01

    The present philosophy for the fire protection of the safe shutdown capability in nuclear power plants is based on the separation of the safety-related systems in different fire areas in such a way that the redundant systems are not subject to damage from a single fire risk. The purpose ofthis paper is to show the experience gained in the application of a symmetric method of analysis to minimize the number of fire barriers being compatible with the regulatory requirements and with capability of achieving and maintaining the safe plant shutdown in the event of a fire. As a conclusion of the analysis, the separation criteria for the divisions involved in the safe plant shutdown are obtained

  2. A probabilistic risk assessment of the LLNL Plutonium facility's evaluation basis fire operational accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brumburgh, G.

    1994-01-01

    The Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) Plutonium Facility conducts numerous involving plutonium to include device fabrication, development of fabrication techniques, metallurgy research, and laser isotope separation. A Safety Analysis Report (SAR) for the building 332 Plutonium Facility was completed rational safety and acceptable risk to employees, the public, government property, and the environment. This paper outlines the PRA analysis of the Evaluation Basis Fire (EDF) operational accident. The EBF postulates the worst-case programmatic impact event for the Plutonium Facility

  3. Advanced analysis and design for fire safety of steel structures

    CERN Document Server

    Li, Guoqiang

    2013-01-01

    Advanced Analysis and Design for Fire Safety of Steel Structures systematically presents the latest findings on behaviours of steel structural components in a fire, such as the catenary actions of restrained steel beams, the design methods for restrained steel columns, and the membrane actions of concrete floor slabs with steel decks. Using a systematic description of structural fire safety engineering principles, the authors illustrate the important difference between behaviours of an isolated structural element and the restrained component in a complete structure under fire conditions. The book will be an essential resource for structural engineers who wish to improve their understanding of steel buildings exposed to fires. It is also an ideal textbook for introductory courses in fire safety for master’s degree programs in structural engineering, and is excellent reading material for final-year undergraduate students in civil engineering and fire safety engineering. Furthermore, it successfully bridges th...

  4. Probabilistic fire risk assessment for Koeberg Nuclear Power Station Unit 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grobbelaar, J.F.; Foster, N.A.S.; Luesse, L.J.

    1995-01-01

    A probabilistic fire risk assessment was done for Koeberg Nuclear Power Station Unit 1. Areas where fires are likely to start were identified. Equipment important to safety, as well as their power and/or control cable routes were identified in each fire confinement sector. Fire confinement sectors where internal initiating events could be caused by fire were identified. Detection failure and suppression failure fault trees and event trees were constructed. The core damage frequency associated with each fire confinement sector was calculated, and important fire confinement sectors were identified. (author)

  5. Fire-accident analysis code (FIRAC) verification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nichols, B.D.; Gregory, W.S.; Fenton, D.L.; Smith, P.R.

    1986-01-01

    The FIRAC computer code predicts fire-induced transients in nuclear fuel cycle facility ventilation systems. FIRAC calculates simultaneously the gas-dynamic, material transport, and heat transport transients that occur in any arbitrarily connected network system subjected to a fire. The network system may include ventilation components such as filters, dampers, ducts, and blowers. These components are connected to rooms and corridors to complete the network for moving air through the facility. An experimental ventilation system has been constructed to verify FIRAC and other accident analysis codes. The design emphasizes network system characteristics and includes multiple chambers, ducts, blowers, dampers, and filters. A larger industrial heater and a commercial dust feeder are used to inject thermal energy and aerosol mass. The facility is instrumented to measure volumetric flow rate, temperature, pressure, and aerosol concentration throughout the system. Aerosol release rates and mass accumulation on filters also are measured. We have performed a series of experiments in which a known rate of thermal energy is injected into the system. We then simulated this experiment with the FIRAC code. This paper compares and discusses the gas-dynamic and heat transport data obtained from the ventilation system experiments with those predicted by the FIRAC code. The numerically predicted data generally are within 10% of the experimental data

  6. 324 Building fire hazards analysis implementation plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eggen, C.D.

    1998-01-01

    In March 1998, the 324 Building Fire Hazards Analysis (FHA) (Reference 1) was approved by the US Department of Energy, Richland Operations Office (DOE-RL) for implementation by B and W Hanford Company (BWHC). The purpose of the FHA was to identify gaps in compliance with DOE Order 5480.7A (Reference 2) and Richland Operations Office Implementation Directive (RLID) 5480.7 (Reference 3), especially in regard to loss limitation. The FHA identified compliance gaps in six areas and provided 20 recommendations to bring the 324 Building into compliance with DOE Order 5480.7A. Additionally, one observation was provided. To date, four of the recommendations and the one observation have been completed. Actions identified for seven of the recommendations are currently in progress. Exemption requests will be transmitted to DOE-RL for three of the recommendations. Six of the recommendations are related to future shut down activities of the facility and the corrective actions are not being addressed as part of this plan. The actions for recommendations associated with the safety related part of the 324 Building and operation of the cells and support areas were evaluated using the Unreviewed Safety Question (USQ) process. Major Life Safety Code concerns have been corrected. The status of the recommendations and actions was confirmed during the July 1998 Fire Protection Assessment. BVMC will use this Implementation Plan to bring the 324 Building and its operation into compliance with DOE Order 5480.7A and RLID 5480.7

  7. 327 Building fire hazards analysis implementation plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eggen, C.D.

    1998-01-01

    In March 1998, the 327 Building Fire Hazards Analysis (FRA) (Reference 1) was approved by the US Department of Energy, Richland Operations Office (DOE-RL) for implementation by B and W Hanford Company (B and WHC). The purpose of the FHA was to identify gaps in compliance with DOE Order 5480.7A (Reference 2) and Richland Operations Office Implementation Directive (RLID) 5480.7 (Reference 3), especially in regard to loss limitation. The FHA identified compliance gaps in five areas and provided nine recommendations (11 items) to bring the 327 Building into compliance. To date, actions for five of the 11 items have been completed. Exemption requests will be transmitted to DOE-RL for two of the items. Corrective actions have been identified for the remaining four items. The completed actions address combustible loading requirements associated with the operation of the cells and support areas. The status of the recommendations and actions was confirmed during the July 1998 Fire Protection Assessment. B and WHC will use this Implementation Plan to bring the 327 Building and its operation into compliance with DOE Order 5480.7A and RLID 5480.7

  8. Information security risk analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Peltier, Thomas R

    2001-01-01

    Effective Risk AnalysisQualitative Risk AnalysisValue AnalysisOther Qualitative MethodsFacilitated Risk Analysis Process (FRAP)Other Uses of Qualitative Risk AnalysisCase StudyAppendix A: QuestionnaireAppendix B: Facilitated Risk Analysis Process FormsAppendix C: Business Impact Analysis FormsAppendix D: Sample of ReportAppendix E: Threat DefinitionsAppendix F: Other Risk Analysis OpinionsIndex

  9. Investment appraisal using quantitative risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johansson, Henrik

    2002-07-01

    Investment appraisal concerned with investments in fire safety systems is discussed. Particular attention is directed at evaluating, in terms of the Bayesian decision theory, the risk reduction that investment in a fire safety system involves. It is shown how the monetary value of the change from a building design without any specific fire protection system to one including such a system can be estimated by use of quantitative risk analysis, the results of which are expressed in terms of a Risk-adjusted net present value. This represents the intrinsic monetary value of investing in the fire safety system. The method suggested is exemplified by a case study performed in an Avesta Sheffield factory.

  10. Risk-Based Fire Safety Experiment Definition for Manned Spacecraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Apostolakis, G. E.; Ho, V. S.; Marcus, E.; Perry, A. T.; Thompson, S. L.

    1989-01-01

    Risk methodology is used to define experiments to be conducted in space which will help to construct and test the models required for accident sequence identification. The development of accident scenarios is based on the realization that whether damage occurs depends on the time competition of two processes: the ignition and creation of an adverse environment, and the detection and suppression activities. If the fire grows and causes damage faster than it is detected and suppressed, then an accident occurred. The proposed integrated experiments will provide information on individual models that apply to each of the above processes, as well as previously unidentified interactions and processes, if any. Initially, models that are used in terrestrial fire risk assessments are considered. These include heat and smoke release models, detection and suppression models, as well as damage models. In cases where the absence of gravity substantially invalidates a model, alternate models will be developed. Models that depend on buoyancy effects, such as the multizone compartment fire models, are included in these cases. The experiments will be performed in a variety of geometries simulating habitable areas, racks, and other spaces. These simulations will necessitate theoretical studies of scaling effects. Sensitivity studies will also be carried out including the effects of varying oxygen concentrations, pressures, fuel orientation and geometry, and air flow rates. The experimental apparatus described herein includes three major modules: the combustion, the fluids, and the command and power modules.

  11. The analysis of fire losses and characteristics of residential fires based on investigation data in Selangor, 2012-2014

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tan Yi Rong

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This is a research in progress where authors seek to investigate the factors of residential fires. As part of the research, this paper aims to analyse the fire problems faced by the community of Malaysia. Data regarding residential fires between 2012 and 2014 was collected from fire investigation reports prepared by the Selangor Fire and Rescue Department. Descriptive analysis is conducted to summarize the data collected and describe the common phenomenon of residential fires. The distributions of the fire characteristics suggested that residential fires are commonly occurred during daytime, confined within the room of fire origin, caused by electrical failure and cooking negligence, started from kitchen, and occurred in multi-units housing. Further analysis will be conducted in order to investigate the relationships between the characteristics and residential fires.

  12. Thermodynamic Analysis of Supplementary-Fired Gas Turbine Cycles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Elmegaard, Brian; Henriksen, Ulrik Birk; Qvale, Einar Bjørn

    2002-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of the possibilities for improving the efficiency of an indirectly biomass-fired gas turbine (IBFGT) by supplementary direct gas-firing. The supplementary firing may be based on natural gas, biogas, or pyrolysis gas. {The interest in this cycle arise from a recent...... demonstration of a two-stage gasification process through construction of several plants.} A preliminary analysis of the ideal recuperated Brayton cycle shows that for this cycle any supplementary firing will have a marginal efficiency of unity per extra unit of fuel. The same result is obtained...

  13. FIRE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brtis, J.S.; Hausheer, T.G.

    1990-01-01

    FIRE, a microcomputer based program to assist engineers in reviewing and documenting the fire protection impact of design changes has been developed. Acting as an electronic consultant, FIRE is designed to work with an experienced nuclear system engineer, who may not have any detailed fire protection expertise. FIRE helps the engineer to decide if a modification might adversely affect the fire protection design of the station. Since its first development, FIRE has been customized to reflect the fire protection philosophy of the Commonwealth Edison Company. That program is in early production use. This paper discusses the FIRE program in light of its being a useful application of expert system technologies in the power industry

  14. Modeling of Electrical Cable Failure in a Dynamic Assessment of Fire Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bucknor, Matthew D.

    Fires at a nuclear power plant are a safety concern because of their potential to defeat the redundant safety features that provide a high level of assurance of the ability to safely shutdown the plant. One of the added complexities of providing protection against fires is the need to determine the likelihood of electrical cable failure which can lead to the loss of the ability to control or spurious actuation of equipment that is required for safe shutdown. A number of plants are now transitioning from their deterministic fire protection programs to a risk-informed, performance based fire protection program according to the requirements of National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) 805. Within a risk-informed framework, credit can be taken for the analysis of fire progression within a fire zone that was not permissible within the deterministic framework of a 10 CFR 50.48 Appendix R safe shutdown analysis. To perform the analyses required for the transition, plants need to be able to demonstrate with some level of assurance that cables related to safe shutdown equipment will not be compromised during postulated fire scenarios. This research contains the development of new cable failure models that have the potential to more accurately predict electrical cable failure in common cable bundle configurations. Methods to determine the thermal properties of the new models from empirical data are presented along with comparisons between the new models and existing techniques used in the nuclear industry today. A Dynamic Event Tree (DET) methodology is also presented which allows for the proper treatment of uncertainties associated with fire brigade intervention and its effects on cable failure analysis. Finally a shielding analysis is performed to determine the effects on the temperature response of a cable bundle that is shielded from a fire source by an intervening object such as another cable tray. The results from the analyses demonstrate that models of similar

  15. 327 Building fire hazards analysis implementation plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    BARILO, N.F.

    1999-01-01

    In March 1998, the 327 Building Fire Hazards Analysis (FHA) (Reference 1) was approved by the U.S. Department of Energy, Richland Operations Office (DOE-E) for implementation by B and W Hanford Company (BWC). The purpose of the FHA was to identify gaps in compliance with DOE Order 5480.7A (Reference 2) and Richland Operations Office Implementation Directive (RLID) 5480.7 (Reference 3), especially in regard to loss limitation. The FHA identified compliance gaps in five areas and provided nine recommendations (11 items) to bring the 327 Building into compliance. A status is provided for each recommendation in this document. BWHC will use this Implementation Plan to bring the 327 Building and its operation into compliance with DOE Order 5480.7A and IUD 5480.7

  16. Risk Quantitative Determination of Fire and Explosion in a Process Unit By Dow’s Fire and Explosion Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Varmazyar

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Background and aims   Fire and explosion hazards are the first and second of major hazards in process industries, respectively. This study has been done to determine fire and explosion risk severity,radius of exposure and estimating of most probable loss.   Methods   In this quantitative study process unit has been selected with affecting parameters on  fire and explosion risk. Then, it was analyzed by DOW's fire and explosion index (F&EI. Technical data were obtained from process documents and reports, fire and explosion guideline.After calculating of DOW's index, radius of exposure determined and finally most  probable loss was estimated.   Results   The results showed an F&EI value of 226 for this process unit.The F&EI was extremely  high and unacceptable.Risk severity was categorized in sever class.Radius of exposure and damage factor were calculated 57 meters and 83%,respectively. As well as most probable loss was  estimated about 6.7 million dollars.   Conclusion   F&EI is a proper technique for risk assessment and loss estimation of fire and  explosion in process industries.Also,It is an important index for detecting high risk and low risk   areas in an industry. At this technique, all of factors affecting on fire and explosion risk was  showed as index that is a base for judgement risk class. Finally, estimated losses could be used as  a base of fire and explosion insurance.

  17. Fire hazards analysis of the Radioactive Waste Management Complex Air Support Buildings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Davis, M.L.; Satterwhite, D.G.

    1989-09-01

    This report describes the methods, analyses, results, and conclusions of a fire hazards risk analysis performed for the RWMC Air Support Buildings. An evaluation of the impact for adding a sprinkler system is also presented. Event and fault trees were used to model and analyze the waste storage process. Tables are presented indicating the fire initiators providing the highest potential for release of radioactive materials into the environment. Engineering insights drawn form the data are also provided.

  18. Fire hazards analysis of the Radioactive Waste Management Complex Air Support Buildings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davis, M.L.; Satterwhite, D.G.

    1989-09-01

    This report describes the methods, analyses, results, and conclusions of a fire hazards risk analysis performed for the RWMC Air Support Buildings. An evaluation of the impact for adding a sprinkler system is also presented. Event and fault trees were used to model and analyze the waste storage process. Tables are presented indicating the fire initiators providing the highest potential for release of radioactive materials into the environment. Engineering insights drawn form the data are also provided

  19. Safety analysis of the existing 850 Firing Facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Odell, B.N.

    1986-01-01

    A safety analysis was performed to determine if normal operations and/or potential accidents at the 850 Firing Facility at Site 300 could present undue hazards to the general public, personnel at Site 300, or have an adverse effect on the environment. The normal operations and credible accidents that might have an effect on these facilities or have off-site consequences were considered. It was determined by this analysis that all but one of the hazards were either low or of the type or magnitude routinely encountered and/or accepted by the public. The exception was explosives, which was classified as a moderate hazard per the requirements given in DOE Order 5481.1A. This safety analysis concluded that the operation at this facility will present no undue risk to the health and safety of LLNL employees or the public

  20. Safety analysis of the existing 851 Firing Facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Odell, B.N.

    1986-01-01

    A safety analysis was performed to determine if normal operations and/or potential accidents at the 851 Firing Facility at Site 300 could present undue hazards to the general public, personnel at Site 300, or have an adverse effect on the environment. The normal operations and credible accidents that might have an effect on these facilities or have off-site consequences were considered. It was determined by this analysis that all but two of the hazards were either low or of the type or magnitude routinely encountered and/or accepted by the public. The exceptions were the linear accelerator and explosives, which were classified as moderate hazards per the requirements given in DOE Order 5481.1A. This safety analysis concluded that the operation at this facility will present no undue risk to the health and safety of LLNL employees or the public

  1. Application of FIVE methodology in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of fire events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lopez Garcia, F.J.; Suarez Alonso, J.; Fiolamengual, M.J.

    1993-01-01

    This paper reflects the experience acquired during the process of evaluation and updating of the fire analysis within the Cofrentes NPP PRA. It determines which points are the least precise, either because of their greater uncertainty or because of their excessive conservatism, as well as the subtasks which have involved a larger work load and could be simplified. These aspects are compared with the steps followed in methodology FIVE (Fire Vulnerability Evaluation Methodology) to assess whether application of this methodology would optimize the task, by making it more systematic and realistic and reducing uncertainties. On the one hand, the FIVE methodology does not have the scope sufficient to carry out a quantitative risk evaluation, but it can easily be complemented -without detriment to its systematic nature- by quantifying core damage in significant areas. On the other hand, certain issues such as definition of the fire growth software program which has to be used, are still not fully closed. Nevertheless, the conclusions derived from this assessment are satisfactory, since it is considered that this methodology would serve to unify the criteria and data of the analysis of fire-induced risks, providing a progressive screening method which would considerably simplify the task. (author)

  2. Parametric analysis of fire model CFAST

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Y. H.; Yang, J. Y.; Kim, J. H.

    2004-01-01

    This paper describes the pump room fire of the nuclear power plant using CFAST fire modeling code developed by NIST. It is determined by the constrained or unconstrained fire, Lower Oxygen Limit (LOL), Radiative Fraction (RF), and the times to open doors, which are the input parameters of CAFST. According to the results, pump room fire is ventilation-controlled fire, so it is adequate that the value of LOL is 10% which is also the default value. It is appeared that the RF does not change the temperature of the upper gas layer. But the level of opening of the penetrating area and the times to opening it have an effect on the temperature of the upper layer, so it is determined that the results of it should be carefully analyzed

  3. GEOPROCESSING APPLIED TO RISK ASSESSMENT OF FOREST FIRES IN THE MUNICIPALITY OF BODOQUENA, MATO GROSSO DO SUL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vitor Matheus Bacani

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Forest fires are a permanent threat in urban-forest interface areas and cause considerable environmental damage, especially in protected areas. An efficient way to assist decision-making to prevent an increase in forest fires is risk assessment using geographical information systems (GIS. The objective of this study was to evaluate the risk of forest fires in the municipality of Bodoquena, Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil, using remote sensing data and spatial analysis techniques implemented in a GIS. The procedures of the methodology are based on spatial analysis techniques to prepare maps of the likelihood of fire based on calculations of the Euclidean distance, the Kernel statistical method and fuzzy transformation and to combine these maps via the increasing diffuse overlay method. The results showed a high risk of forest fires on the margins of the urban area, rural settlements and main roads that cross the municipality, as well as the surrounding areas. It is concluded that the municipality of Bodoquena has a high risk of forest fires in areas with high biodiversity, especially the areas surrounding the Serra da Bodoquena National Park and Mato Grosso do Sul Pantanal.

  4. Fire in longleaf pine stand management: an economic analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodney L. Busby; Donald G. Hodges

    1999-01-01

    A simulation analysis of the economics of using prescribed fire as a forest management tool in the management of longleaf pine (Pinus palustris Mill.) plantations was conducted. A management regime using frequent prescribed fire was compared to management regimes involving fertilization and chemical release, chemical control, and mechanical control. Determining the...

  5. Nonlinear phased analysis of reinforced concrete tunnels under fire exposure

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lilliu, G.; Meda, A.

    2013-01-01

    Fire analysis of precast segmental tunnels involves several problems, mainly related to the soil-structure interaction during fire exposure, coupled with material degradation. Temperature increase in the tunnel is the cause of thermal expansion of the lining, which is resisted by the soil pressure.

  6. FIRE SAFETY IN NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS: A RISK-INFORMED AND PERFORMANCE-BASED APPROACH

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    AZARM,M.A.; TRAVIS,R.J.

    1999-11-14

    The consideration of risk in regulatory decision-making has long been a part of NRC's policy and practice. Initially, these considerations were qualitative and were based on risk insights. The early regulations relied on good practices, past insights, and accepted standards. As a result, most NRC regulations were prescriptive and were applied uniformly to all areas within the regulatory scope. Risk technology is changing regulations by prioritizing the areas within regulatory scope based on risk, thereby focusing on the risk-important areas. Performance technology, on the other hand, is changing the regulations by allowing requirements to be adjusted based on the specific performance expected and manifested, rather than a prior prescriptive requirement. Consistent with the objectives of risk-informed and performance-based regulatory requirements, BNL evaluated the feasibility of applying risk- and performance-technologies to modifying NRC's current regulations on fire protection for nuclear power plants. This feasibility study entailed several case studies (trial applications). This paper describes the results of two of them. Besides the case studies, the paper discusses an overall evaluation of methodologies for fire-risk analysis to support the risk-informed regulation. It identifies some current shortcomings and proposes some near-term solutions.

  7. FIRE SAFETY IN NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS: A RISK-INFORMED AND PERFORMANCE-BASED APPROACH

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    AZARM, M.A.; TRAVIS, R.J.

    1999-01-01

    The consideration of risk in regulatory decision-making has long been a part of NRC's policy and practice. Initially, these considerations were qualitative and were based on risk insights. The early regulations relied on good practices, past insights, and accepted standards. As a result, most NRC regulations were prescriptive and were applied uniformly to all areas within the regulatory scope. Risk technology is changing regulations by prioritizing the areas within regulatory scope based on risk, thereby focusing on the risk-important areas. Performance technology, on the other hand, is changing the regulations by allowing requirements to be adjusted based on the specific performance expected and manifested, rather than a prior prescriptive requirement. Consistent with the objectives of risk-informed and performance-based regulatory requirements, BNL evaluated the feasibility of applying risk- and performance-technologies to modifying NRC's current regulations on fire protection for nuclear power plants. This feasibility study entailed several case studies (trial applications). This paper describes the results of two of them. Besides the case studies, the paper discusses an overall evaluation of methodologies for fire-risk analysis to support the risk-informed regulation. It identifies some current shortcomings and proposes some near-term solutions

  8. Modelling of spatial prediction of fire ignition risk in the Antalya-Manavgat district

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Coşkun Okan Güney

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to present the fire ignition risk for Manavgat-Antalya District to enable the planning of firefighting sources in a more qualified way. From sites within the study area, where forest fires broke out or not during the past five years, we obtained geographical coordinates, climate data, topographical data and variables like bedrock, stand types, settlement areas, roads and power lines and prepared them with geographical information systems. For all variables we performed Wilcoxon rank-sum test, interspecific correlation analysis and logistic regression analysis and obtained 4 different models. When ROC analysis was applied to these models, model 4 was determined as the most significant model and therefore used to prepare the fire ignition risk map for the Manavgat-Antalya District. According to this map, ignition risk within the study area was highest in and around settlement areas where roads and power lines concentrate and Turkish red pine is distributed, but it was lowest afar of settlement areas without roads and where species apart from Turkish red pine are distributed. According to the results some suggestions were made.

  9. Canadian Wildland Fire Strategy: A vision for an innovative and integrated approach to managing the risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canadian Wildland Fire Strategy Project Management Team

    2006-01-01

    The Canadian Wildland Fire Strategy (CWFS) provides a vision for a new, innovative, and integrated approach to wildland fire management in Canada. It was developed under the auspices of the Canadian Council of Forest Ministers and seeks to balance the social, ecological, and economic aspects of wildland fire through a risk management framework that emphasizes hazard...

  10. Creation and implementation of a certification system for insurability and fire risk classification for forest plantations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veronica Loewe M.; Victor Vargas; Juan Miguel Ruiz; Andrea Alvarez C.; Felipe Lobo Q.

    2015-01-01

    Currently, the Chilean insurance market sells forest fire insurance policies and agricultural weather risk policies. However, access to forest fire insurance is difficult for small and medium enterprises (SMEs), with a significant proportion (close to 50%) of forest plantations being without coverage. Indeed, the insurance market that sells forest fire insurance...

  11. Understanding the long-term fire risks in forests affected by sudden oak death

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yana Valachovic; Chris Lee; Radoslaw Glebocki; Hugh Scanlon; J. Morgan Varner; David. Rizzo

    2010-01-01

    It is assumed that large numbers of dead and down tanoak in forests infested by Phytophthora ramorum contribute to increased fire hazard risk and fuel loading. We studied the impact of P. ramorum infestation on surface fuel loading, potential fire hazard, and potential fire behavior in Douglas-fir- (Pseudotsuga...

  12. Forest landowner decisions and the value of information under fire risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregory S. Amacher; Arun S. Malik; Robert G. Haight

    2005-01-01

    We estimate the value of three types of information about fire risk to a nonindustrial forest landowner: the relationship between fire arrival rates and stand age, the magnitude of fire arrival rates, and the efficacy of fuel reduction treatment. Our model incorporates planting density and the level and timing of fuel reduction treatment as landowner decisions. These...

  13. The practical implementation of integrated safety management for nuclear safety analysis and fire hazards analysis documentation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    COLLOPY, M.T.

    1999-01-01

    In 1995 Mr. Joseph DiNunno of the Defense Nuclear Facilities Safety Board issued an approach to describe the concept of an integrated safety management program which incorporates hazard and safety analysis to address a multitude of hazards affecting the public, worker, property, and the environment. Since then the U S . Department of Energy (DOE) has adopted a policy to systematically integrate safety into management and work practices at all levels so that missions can be completed while protecting the public, worker, and the environment. While the DOE and its contractors possessed a variety of processes for analyzing fire hazards at a facility, activity, and job; the outcome and assumptions of these processes have not always been consistent for similar types of hazards within the safety analysis and the fire hazard analysis. Although the safety analysis and the fire hazard analysis are driven by different DOE Orders and requirements, these analyses should not be entirely independent and their preparation should be integrated to ensure consistency of assumptions, consequences, design considerations, and other controls. Under the DOE policy to implement an integrated safety management system, identification of hazards must be evaluated and agreed upon to ensure that the public. the workers. and the environment are protected from adverse consequences. The DOE program and contractor management need a uniform, up-to-date reference with which to plan. budget, and manage nuclear programs. It is crucial that DOE understand the hazards and risks necessarily to authorize the work needed to be performed. If integrated safety management is not incorporated into the preparation of the safety analysis and the fire hazard analysis, inconsistencies between assumptions, consequences, design considerations, and controls may occur that affect safety. Furthermore, confusion created by inconsistencies may occur in the DOE process to grant authorization of the work. In accordance with

  14. Mitigation of fire damage and escalation by fireproofing: A risk-based strategy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tugnoli, Alessandro; Cozzani, Valerio; Di Padova, Annamaria; Barbaresi, Tiziana; Tallone, Fabrizio

    2012-01-01

    Passive fire protection by the application of fireproofing materials is a crucial safety barrier in the prevention of the escalation of fire scenarios. Fireproofing improves the capacity of process items and of support structures to maintain their structural integrity during a fire, preventing or at least delaying the collapse of structural elements. Maintenance and cost issues require, however, to apply such protection only where an actual risk of severe fire scenarios is present. Available methodologies for fireproofing application in on-shore installation do not consider the effect of jet-fires. In the present study, a risk-based methodology aimed at the protection from both pool fire and jet fire escalation was developed. The procedure addresses both the prevention of domino effect and the mitigation of asset damage due to the primary fire scenario. The method is mainly oriented to early design application, allowing the identification of fireproofing zones in the initial phases of lay-out definition.

  15. Proximity to vacant buildings is associated with increased fire risk in Baltimore, Maryland, homes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schachterle, Stephen E; Bishai, David; Shields, Wendy; Stepnitz, Rebecca; Gielen, Andrea C

    2012-04-01

    Fires and burns are a leading cause of unintentional injury death in the USA. Although it has been anecdotally reported that vacant dwellings are at a higher risk for fire, the association between vacancy and fire risk at the individual household level has not been empirically measured. In this cross-sectional study, geocoded residential vacant properties (VP) and fire events are analysed in Baltimore City at the census tract level and the individual household level. On average, a 10% increase in the proportion of vacancies in a census tract was associated with a 9.9% increase in fires (95% CI: 5% to 15%). Random-effects Poisson models, controlling for housing and neighbourhood conditions, found contagion effects. The risk of fire in an occupied dwelling increased by 8% (95% CI: 1% to 10%) for every vacant structure within 10 m, and the risk of fire decreased by half (95% CI: 45% to 62%) for every km between an occupied dwelling and vacant building. Close proximity to VP was associated with trash fires within dwellings (p=0.039) and structure fires (p=0.012). We believe that this is the first study to demonstrate increased risk posed by nearby VP at the household level, confirming earlier ecological analyses of the role of VP as strong correlates of home fires. Measurement of this risk can motivate property owners, policy makers and insurers to invest in risk reduction measures that include building maintenance and trash removal.

  16. Material Analysis for a Fire Assessment.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, Alexander; Nemer, Martin B.

    2014-08-01

    This report consolidates technical information on several materials and material classes for a fire assessment. The materials include three polymeric materials, wood, and hydraulic oil. The polymers are polystyrene, polyurethane, and melamine- formaldehyde foams. Samples of two of the specific materials were tested for their behavior in a fire - like environment. Test data and the methods used to test the materials are presented. Much of the remaining data are taken from a literature survey. This report serves as a reference source of properties necessary to predict the behavior of these materials in a fire.

  17. Fire hazard analysis for the K basin fuel transfer system anneses project A-15

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    BARILO, N.F.

    2001-01-01

    The purpose of the Fuel Transfer System (FTS) is to move the spent nuclear fuel currently stored in the K East (KE) Basin and transfer it by shielded cask to the K West (KW) Basin. The fuel will then be processed through the existing fuel cleaning and loading system prior to being loaded into Multi-Canister Overpacks (MCO). The FTS operation is considered an intra-facility transfer because the spent fuel will stay within the 100 K area and between the K Basins. This preliminary Fire Hazards Analysis (FHA) for the K Basin FTS Annexes addresses fire hazards or fire-related concerns in accordance with U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) 420.1 (DOE 2000), and RLID 420.1 (DOE 1999), resulting from or related to the processes and equipment. It is intended to assess the risk from fire associated within the FTS Annexes to ensure that there are no undue fire hazards to site personnel and the public; the potential for the occurrence of a fire is minimized; process control and safety systems are not damaged by fire or related perils; and property damage from fire and related perils does not exceed an acceptable level. Consistent with the preliminary nature of the design information, this FHA is performed on a graded approach

  18. Structural Test and Analysis of RC Slab After Fire Loading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chung, Chulhun; Im, Cho Rong; Park, Jaegyun

    2013-01-01

    In the present study the behavior of fire and the residual strength of fire-ignited RC slabs are investigated by experimental tests and numerical simulations. The fire tests of RC slabs were carried out in a furnace using the ISO 834 standard fire. The load capacity of the cooled RC slabs that were not loaded during the fire tests was evaluated by additional 3 point bending tests. The influence of the proportion of PP (polypropylene) fibers in the RC slabs on the structural behavior of the RC slabs after the fire loading was investigated. The results of the fire tests showed that the maximum temperature of concrete with PP fiber was lower than that of concrete without PP fiber. As the concrete was heated, the ultimate compressive strength decreased and the ultimate strain increased. The load-deflection relations of RC slabs after fire loading were compared by using existing stress-strain-temperature models. The comparison between the numerical analysis and the experimental tests showed that some numerical analyses were reliable and therefore, can be applied to evaluate the ultimate load of RC slabs after fire loading. The ultimate load capacity after cooling down the RC slabs without PP fiber showed a considerable reduction from that of the RC slabs with PP fiber

  19. Structural Test and Analysis of RC Slab After Fire Loading

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chung, Chulhun; Im, Cho Rong; Park, Jaegyun [Dankook Univ., Yongin (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-04-15

    In the present study the behavior of fire and the residual strength of fire-ignited RC slabs are investigated by experimental tests and numerical simulations. The fire tests of RC slabs were carried out in a furnace using the ISO 834 standard fire. The load capacity of the cooled RC slabs that were not loaded during the fire tests was evaluated by additional 3 point bending tests. The influence of the proportion of PP (polypropylene) fibers in the RC slabs on the structural behavior of the RC slabs after the fire loading was investigated. The results of the fire tests showed that the maximum temperature of concrete with PP fiber was lower than that of concrete without PP fiber. As the concrete was heated, the ultimate compressive strength decreased and the ultimate strain increased. The load-deflection relations of RC slabs after fire loading were compared by using existing stress-strain-temperature models. The comparison between the numerical analysis and the experimental tests showed that some numerical analyses were reliable and therefore, can be applied to evaluate the ultimate load of RC slabs after fire loading. The ultimate load capacity after cooling down the RC slabs without PP fiber showed a considerable reduction from that of the RC slabs with PP fiber.

  20. 324 Building fire hazards analysis implementation plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    BARILO, N.F.

    1999-01-01

    In March 1998, the 324 Building Fire Hazards Analysis (FHA) (Reference 1) was approved by the U S. Department of Energy, Richland Operations Office (DOE-RL) for implementation by B and W Hanford Company (BWHC). The purpose of the FHA was to identify gaps in compliance with DOE Order 5480.7A (Reference 2) and Richland Operations Office Implementation Directive (RLID) 5480.7 (Reference 3), especially in regard to loss limitation. The FHA identified compliance gaps in six areas and provided 20 recommendations to bring the 324 Building into compliance with DOE Order 5480 7A. Additionally, one observation was provided. A status is provided for each recommendation in this document. The actions for recommendations associated with the safety related part of the 324 Building and operation of the cells and support areas were evaluated using the Unreviewed Safety Question (USQ) process BWHC will use this Implementation Plan to bring the 324 Building and its operation into compliance with DOE Order 5480 7A and RLID 5480.7

  1. Fire Hazard Analysis for the Cold Vacuum Drying facility (CVD) Facility

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    SINGH, G.

    2000-09-06

    The CVDF is a nonreactor nuclear facility that will process the Spent Nuclear Fuels (SNF) presently stored in the 105-KE and 105-KW SNF storage basins. Multi-canister overpacks (MCOs) will be loaded (filled) with K Basin fuel transported to the CVDF. The MCOs will be processed at the CVDF to remove free water from the fuel cells (packages). Following processing at the CVDF, the MCOs will be transported to the CSB for interim storage until a long-term storage solution can be implemented. This operation is expected to start in November 2000. A Fire Hazard Analysis (FHA) is required for all new facilities and all nonreactor nuclear facilities, in accordance with U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Order 5480.7A, Fire Protection. This FHA has been prepared in accordance with DOE 5480.7A and HNF-PRO-350, Fire Hazard Analysis Requirements. Additionally, requirements or criteria contained in DOE, Richland Operations Office (RL) RL Implementing Directive (RLID) 5480.7, Fire Protection, or other DOE documentation are cited, as applicable. This FHA comprehensively assesses the risk of fire at the CVDF to ascertain whether the specific objectives of DOE 5480.7A are met. These specific fire protection objectives are: (1) Minimize the potential for the occurrence of a fire. (2) Ensure that fire does not cause an onsite or offsite release of radiological and other hazardous material that will threaten the public health and safety or the environment. (3) Establish requirements that will provide an acceptable degree of life safety to DOE and contractor personnel and ensure that there are no undue hazards to the public from fire and its effects in DOE facilities. (4) Ensure that vital DOE programs will not suffer unacceptable delays as a result of fire and related perils. (5) Ensure that property damage from fire and related perils does not exceed an acceptable level. (6) Ensure that process control and safety systems are not damaged by fire or related perils. This FHA is based on the

  2. Fire Hazard Analysis for the Cold Vacuum Drying facility (CVD) Facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    SINGH, G.

    2000-01-01

    The CVDF is a nonreactor nuclear facility that will process the Spent Nuclear Fuels (SNF) presently stored in the 105-KE and 105-KW SNF storage basins. Multi-canister overpacks (MCOs) will be loaded (filled) with K Basin fuel transported to the CVDF. The MCOs will be processed at the CVDF to remove free water from the fuel cells (packages). Following processing at the CVDF, the MCOs will be transported to the CSB for interim storage until a long-term storage solution can be implemented. This operation is expected to start in November 2000. A Fire Hazard Analysis (FHA) is required for all new facilities and all nonreactor nuclear facilities, in accordance with U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Order 5480.7A, Fire Protection. This FHA has been prepared in accordance with DOE 5480.7A and HNF-PRO-350, Fire Hazard Analysis Requirements. Additionally, requirements or criteria contained in DOE, Richland Operations Office (RL) RL Implementing Directive (RLID) 5480.7, Fire Protection, or other DOE documentation are cited, as applicable. This FHA comprehensively assesses the risk of fire at the CVDF to ascertain whether the specific objectives of DOE 5480.7A are met. These specific fire protection objectives are: (1) Minimize the potential for the occurrence of a fire. (2) Ensure that fire does not cause an onsite or offsite release of radiological and other hazardous material that will threaten the public health and safety or the environment. (3) Establish requirements that will provide an acceptable degree of life safety to DOE and contractor personnel and ensure that there are no undue hazards to the public from fire and its effects in DOE facilities. (4) Ensure that vital DOE programs will not suffer unacceptable delays as a result of fire and related perils. (5) Ensure that property damage from fire and related perils does not exceed an acceptable level. (6) Ensure that process control and safety systems are not damaged by fire or related perils. This FHA is based on the

  3. Technical methods for a risk-informed, performance-based fire protection program at nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dey, M.K.

    2000-01-01

    This paper presents a technical review and examination of technical methods that are available for developing a risk-informed, performance-based fire protection program at a nuclear plant. The technical methods include 'engineering tools' for examining the fire dynamics of fire protection problems, reliability techniques for establishing an optimal fire protection surveillance program, fire computer codes for analyzing important fire protection safety parameters, and risk-informed approaches that can range from drawing qualitative insights from risk information to quantifying the risk impact of alternative fire protection approaches. Based on this technical review and examination, it is concluded that methods for modeling fires, and reliability and fire probabilistic risk analyses (PRA) are currently available to support the initial implementation of simple risk-informed, performance-based approaches in fire protection programs. (orig.) [de

  4. Detecting fire in video stream using statistical analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Koplík Karel

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The real time fire detection in video stream is one of the most interesting problems in computer vision. In fact, in most cases it would be nice to have fire detection algorithm implemented in usual industrial cameras and/or to have possibility to replace standard industrial cameras with one implementing the fire detection algorithm. In this paper, we present new algorithm for detecting fire in video. The algorithm is based on tracking suspicious regions in time with statistical analysis of their trajectory. False alarms are minimized by combining multiple detection criteria: pixel brightness, trajectories of suspicious regions for evaluating characteristic fire flickering and persistence of alarm state in sequence of frames. The resulting implementation is fast and therefore can run on wide range of affordable hardware.

  5. Development at the wildland-urban interface and the mitigation of forest-fire risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spyratos, Vassilis; Bourgeron, Patrick S; Ghil, Michael

    2007-09-04

    This work addresses the impacts of development at the wildland-urban interface on forest fires that spread to human habitats. Catastrophic fires in the western United States and elsewhere make these impacts a matter of urgency for decision makers, scientists, and the general public. Using a simple fire-spread model, along with housing and vegetation data, we show that fire size probability distributions can be strongly modified by the density and flammability of houses. We highlight a sharp transition zone in the parameter space of vegetation flammability and house density. Many actual fire landscapes in the United States appear to have spreading properties close to this transition. Thus, the density and flammability of buildings should be taken into account when assessing fire risk at the wildland-urban interface. Moreover, our results highlight ways for regulation at this interface to help mitigate fire risk.

  6. Fire Hazard Analysis for the Cold Neutron Source System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choi, Jung Won; Kim, Young Ki; Wu, Sang Ik; Park, Young Cheol; Kim, Bong Soo; Kang, Mee Jin; Oh, Sung Wook

    2006-04-15

    As the Cold Neutron Source System for its installation in HANARO has been designing, the fire hazard analysis upon the CNS system becomes required under No. 2003-20 of the MOST notice, Technical Standard about the Fire Hazard Analysis. As a moderator, the strongly flammable hydrogen is filled in the hydrogen system of CNS. Against the fire or explosion in the reactor hall, accordingly, the physical damage on the reactor safety system should be evaluated in order to reflect the safety protection precaution in the design of CNS system. For the purpose of fire hazard analysis, the accident scenarios were divided into three: hydrogen leak during the hydrogen charging in the system, hydrogen leak during the normal operation of CNS, explosion of hydrogen buffer tank by the external fire. The analysis results can be summarized as follows. First, there is no physical damage threatening the reactor safety system although all hydrogen gas came out of the system then ignited as a jet fire. Second, since the CNS equipment island (CEI) is located enough away from the reactor, no physical damage caused by the buffer tank explosion is on the reactor in terms of the overpressure except the flying debris so that the light two-hour fireproof panel is installed in an one side of hydrogen buffer tank. Third, there are a few combustibles on the second floor of CEI so that the fire cannot be propagated to other areas in the reactor hall; however, the light two-hour fireproof panel will be built on the second floor against the external or internal fire so as to play the role of a fire protection area.

  7. Fire Hazard Analysis for the Cold Neutron Source System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Jung Won; Kim, Young Ki; Wu, Sang Ik; Park, Young Cheol; Kim, Bong Soo; Kang, Mee Jin; Oh, Sung Wook

    2006-04-01

    As the Cold Neutron Source System for its installation in HANARO has been designing, the fire hazard analysis upon the CNS system becomes required under No. 2003-20 of the MOST notice, Technical Standard about the Fire Hazard Analysis. As a moderator, the strongly flammable hydrogen is filled in the hydrogen system of CNS. Against the fire or explosion in the reactor hall, accordingly, the physical damage on the reactor safety system should be evaluated in order to reflect the safety protection precaution in the design of CNS system. For the purpose of fire hazard analysis, the accident scenarios were divided into three: hydrogen leak during the hydrogen charging in the system, hydrogen leak during the normal operation of CNS, explosion of hydrogen buffer tank by the external fire. The analysis results can be summarized as follows. First, there is no physical damage threatening the reactor safety system although all hydrogen gas came out of the system then ignited as a jet fire. Second, since the CNS equipment island (CEI) is located enough away from the reactor, no physical damage caused by the buffer tank explosion is on the reactor in terms of the overpressure except the flying debris so that the light two-hour fireproof panel is installed in an one side of hydrogen buffer tank. Third, there are a few combustibles on the second floor of CEI so that the fire cannot be propagated to other areas in the reactor hall; however, the light two-hour fireproof panel will be built on the second floor against the external or internal fire so as to play the role of a fire protection area

  8. Fire debris analysis and scene reconstruction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sturaro, Alberto; Vianello, Alvise; Denti, Pablo; Rella, Rocco

    2013-06-01

    During the summer of 2010 near a little village in the south of Italy, a fire destroyed a piece of brushland without any apparent economic importance. The remains of a fire-setting tool were found at the point of origin of the fire. It was started using a well-planned and methodical approach. The analytical results demonstrated a sophisticated and effective incendiary tool designed to leave little evidence that could identify the offender. The action and the purpose of the arsonist were clear but the basic motivation was unpredictable. The burned area was without any relevant economical interest. It was burnt during the past and has not been used for any cultivation or sheep farming but in the region there was evidence of bushfires that had been lit to stimulate the growth of forest fruits to be harvested for sale. Copyright © 2012 Forensic Science Society. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Review of methods for modelling forest fire risk and hazard

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    -Leal et al., 2006). Stolle and Lambin (2003) noted that flammable fuel depends on ... advantages over conventional fire detection and fire monitoring methods because ofits repetitive andconsistent coverage over large areas of land (Martin et ...

  10. Presentation of a Software Method for Use of Risk Assessment in Building Fire Safety Measure Optimization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. R. Koohpaei

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Background and aims: The property loss and physical injuries due to fire events in buildings demonstrate the necessity of implementation of efficient and performance based fire safety measures. Effective and high efficiency protection is possible when design and selection of protection measures are based on risk assessment. This study aims at presenting a software method to make possible selection and design of building fire safety measures based upon quantitative risk assessment and building characteristics. Methods: based on “Fire Risk Assessment Method for Engineer (FRAME” a program in MATLB software was written. The first section of this program, according to the FRAME method and based on the specification of a building, calculates the potential risk and acceptable risk level. In the second section, according to potential risk, acceptable risk level and the fire risk level that user want, program calculate concession of protective factor for that building.Results: The prepared software make it possible to assign the fire safety measure based on quantitative risk level and all building specifications. All calculations were performed with 0.001 of precision and the accuracy of this software was assessed with handmade calculations. During the use of the software if an error occurs in calculations, it can be distinguished in the output. Conclusion: Application of quantitative risk assessment is a suitable tool for increasing of efficiency in designing and execution of fire protection measure in building. With using this software the selected fire safety measure would be more efficient and suitable since the selection of fire safety measures performed on risk assessment and particular specification of a building. Moreover fire risk in the building can be managed easily and carefully.

  11. Fires in rooms containing electrical components - incident planning, fire fighting tactics, risks; Braender i driftrum - Insatsplaner, slaeckteknik, risker

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Magnusson, Tommy; Ottosson, Jan; Lindskog, BertiI; Soederquist Bende, Evy; Eriksson, Fredrik; Haffling, Stefan

    2006-12-15

    On July 1, 2005 a fire occurred within an electrical switch room at Forsmark Nuclear Power Plant. At the evaluation of the incident it was identified that the pre-fire plans did not give sufficient information in order to make the appropriate decisions. Questions raised based on the incident are how decisions are made and orders are delegated with respect to the incident command, which fire fighting tactic should be used, which types of extinguishing media should be used, what are the risks with respect to safety of staff and safety of the reactor. Lessons learned from the fire at Forsmark were that pre-incident planning was at hand but the information was not sufficient to make the correct initial decisions that might be critical for life and property. One of the most crucial ingredients in all safety related work is to utilize previous experience in order to maintain a high degree of safety. Lessons learnt are also the foundation on which the ability to construct or create strong barriers against a certain fault phenomena, fault mechanism or type of initial event. In the case of nuclear processes, fire is considered as an important and critical initial event which has to be recognized in a number of cases in order to maintain a safe process. The likelihood for a fire to represent an initial event should not be underestimated and can therefore not be neglected, probabilistically or deterministically, unless the inherent safety systems can not control the event in an acceptable manner. Regardless of safety measures and lessons learnt from previous experiences in the construction and the operation of the nuclear facility, fires can occur. Previous experiences point out that process system, e.g. systems that are part of the turbine, are more frequently subject to fire incidents compared to ordinary safety systems. Fires in electrical components, often electrical cabinets, can be difficult to handle and to extinguish quickly. This report presents the background work

  12. Technical methods for a risk-informed, performance-based fire protection program at nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dey, M.K.

    1998-01-01

    This paper presents a technical review and examination of technical methods that are available for developing a risk-informed, performance-based fire protection program at a nuclear plant. The technical methods include ''engineering tools'' for examining the fire dynamics of fire protection problems, reliability techniques for establishing an optimal fire protection surveillance program, fire computer codes for analyzing important fire protection safety parameters, and risk-informed approaches that can range from drawing qualitative insights from risk information to quantifying the risk impact of alternative fire protection approaches. Based on this technical review and examination, it is concluded that methods for modeling fires, and reliability and fire PRA analyses are currently available to support the initial implementation of simple risk-informed, performance-based approaches in fire protection programs. (author)

  13. Reducing The Risk Of Fires In Conveyor Transport

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheremushkina, M. S.; Poddubniy, D. A.

    2017-01-01

    The paper deals with the actual problem of increasing the safety of operation of belt conveyors in mines. Was developed the control algorithm that meets the technical requirements of the mine belt conveyors, reduces the risk of fires of conveyors belt, and enables energy and resource savings taking into account random sort of traffic. The most effective method of decision such tasks is the construction of control systems with the use of variable speed drives for asynchronous motors. Was designed the mathematical model of the system "variable speed multiengine drive - conveyor - control system of conveyors", that takes into account the dynamic processes occurring in the elements of the transport system, provides an assessment of the energy efficiency of application the developed algorithms, which allows to reduce the dynamic overload in the belt to (15-20)%.

  14. Fire hazard analysis for Plutonium Finishing Plant complex

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MCKINNIS, D.L.

    1999-01-01

    A fire hazards analysis (FHA) was performed for the Plutonium Finishing Plant (PFP) Complex at the Department of Energy (DOE) Hanford site. The scope of the FHA focuses on the nuclear facilities/structures in the Complex. The analysis was conducted in accordance with RLID 5480.7, [DOE Directive RLID 5480.7, 1/17/94] and DOE Order 5480.7A, ''Fire Protection'' [DOE Order 5480.7A, 2/17/93] and addresses each of the sixteen principle elements outlined in paragraph 9.a(3) of the Order. The elements are addressed in terms of the fire protection objectives stated in paragraph 4 of DOE 5480.7A. In addition, the FHA also complies with WHC-CM-4-41, Fire Protection Program Manual, Section 3.4 [1994] and WHC-SD-GN-FHA-30001, Rev. 0 [WHC, 1994]. Objectives of the FHA are to determine: (1) the fire hazards that expose the PFP facilities, or that are inherent in the building operations, (2) the adequacy of the fire safety features currently located in the PFP Complex, and (3) the degree of compliance of the facility with specific fire safety provisions in DOE orders, related engineering codes, and standards

  15. Fire hazard analysis for Plutonium Finishing Plant complex

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    MCKINNIS, D.L.

    1999-02-23

    A fire hazards analysis (FHA) was performed for the Plutonium Finishing Plant (PFP) Complex at the Department of Energy (DOE) Hanford site. The scope of the FHA focuses on the nuclear facilities/structures in the Complex. The analysis was conducted in accordance with RLID 5480.7, [DOE Directive RLID 5480.7, 1/17/94] and DOE Order 5480.7A, ''Fire Protection'' [DOE Order 5480.7A, 2/17/93] and addresses each of the sixteen principle elements outlined in paragraph 9.a(3) of the Order. The elements are addressed in terms of the fire protection objectives stated in paragraph 4 of DOE 5480.7A. In addition, the FHA also complies with WHC-CM-4-41, Fire Protection Program Manual, Section 3.4 [1994] and WHC-SD-GN-FHA-30001, Rev. 0 [WHC, 1994]. Objectives of the FHA are to determine: (1) the fire hazards that expose the PFP facilities, or that are inherent in the building operations, (2) the adequacy of the fire safety features currently located in the PFP Complex, and (3) the degree of compliance of the facility with specific fire safety provisions in DOE orders, related engineering codes, and standards.

  16. Foundations of Risk Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Aven, Terje

    2012-01-01

    Foundations of Risk Analysis presents the issues core to risk analysis - understanding what risk means, expressing risk, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real problems. The author provides the readers with the knowledge and basic thinking they require to successfully manage risk and uncertainty to support decision making. This updated edition reflects recent developments on risk and uncertainty concepts, representations and treatment. New material in Foundations of Risk Analysis includes:An up to date presentation of how to understand, define and

  17. ASTM standards for fire debris analysis: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stauffer, Eric; Lentini, John J

    2003-03-12

    The American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) recently updated its standards E 1387 and E 1618 for the analysis of fire debris. The changes in the classification of ignitable liquids are presented in this review. Furthermore, a new standard on extraction of fire debris with solid phase microextraction (SPME) was released. Advantages and drawbacks of this technique are presented and discussed. Also, the standard on cleanup by acid stripping has not been reapproved. Fire debris analysts that use the standards should be aware of these changes.

  18. A probabilistic risk assessment of the LLNL Plutonium Facility's evaluation basis fire operational accident. Revision 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brumburgh, G.P.

    1995-01-01

    The Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) Plutonium Facility conducts numerous programmatic activities involving plutonium to include device fabrication, development of improved and/or unique fabrication techniques, metallurgy research, and laser isotope separation. A Safety Analysis Report (SAR) for the building 332 Plutonium Facility was completed in July 1994 to address operational safety and acceptable risk to employees, the public, government property, and the environmental. This paper outlines the PRA analysis of the Evaluation Basis Fire (EBF) operational accident. The EBF postulates the worst-case programmatic impact event for the Plutonium Facility

  19. Alternative fuels in fire debris analysis: biodiesel basics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stauffer, Eric; Byron, Doug

    2007-03-01

    Alternative fuels are becoming more prominent on the market today and, soon, fire debris analysts will start seeing them in liquid samples or in fire debris samples. Biodiesel fuel is one of the most common alternative fuels and is now readily available in many parts of the United States and around the world. This article introduces biodiesel to fire debris analysts. Biodiesel fuel is manufactured from vegetable oils and/or animal oils/fats. It is composed of fatty acid methyl esters (FAMEs) and is sold pure or as a blend with diesel fuel. When present in fire debris samples, it is recommended to extract the debris using passive headspace concentration on activated charcoal, possibly followed by a solvent extraction. The gas chromatographic analysis of the extract is first carried out with the same program as for regular ignitable liquid residues, and second with a program adapted to the analysis of FAMEs.

  20. Fire and Spillage Risk Assessment Pattern in Scientific Laboratories

    OpenAIRE

    Manouchehr Omidvari; N. Mansouri

    2015-01-01

        Material hazards are the most important risk in scientific laboratories. In risk assessment processing, the potential impact of assessor personal judgment is the most important issue. This study tried to develop a risk assessment pattern based on Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) logics and empirical data in scientific laboratories. The most important issues were high pressure reservoirs and hardware failure fuel. The other type of data about b...

  1. Applying the Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS) to support risk-informed decision making: The Gold Pan Fire, Bitterroot National Forest, Montana, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erin K. Noonan-Wright; Tonja S. Opperman

    2015-01-01

    In response to federal wildfire policy changes, risk-informed decision-making by way of improved decision support, is increasingly becoming a component of managing wildfires. As fire incidents escalate in size and complexity, the Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS) provides support with different analytical tools as fire conditions change. We demonstrate the...

  2. Fire Management Lessons Learned From the Cerro Grande (Los Alamos) Fire and Actions Needed to Reduce Fire Risks

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Hill, Barry

    2000-01-01

    We are here today to discuss two related issues, lessons learned from the recent Cerro Grande fire, and, on a broader note, actions needed to mitigate current hazardous forest conditions in the interior West...

  3. Risk assessment study of fire following earthquake: a case study of petrochemical enterprises in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, J.; Wang, Y.; Chen, H.; Lin, L.

    2013-04-01

    After an earthquake, the fire risk of petrochemistry enterprises is higher than that of other enterprises as it involves production processes with inflammable and explosive characteristics. Using Chinese petrochemical enterprises as the research object, this paper uses a literature review and case summaries to study, amongst others, the classification of petrochemical enterprises, the proportion of daily fires, and fire loss ratio. This paper builds a fire following earthquake risk assessment model of petrochemical enterprises based on a previous earthquake fire hazard model, and the earthquake loss prediction assessment method, calculates the expected loss of the fire following earthquake in various counties and draws a risk map. Moreover, this research identifies high-risk areas, concentrating on the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan region, and Shandong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang provinces. Differences in enterprise type produce different levels and distribution of petrochemical enterprises earthquake fire risk. Furthermore, areas at high risk of post-earthquake fires and with low levels of seismic fortification require extra attention to ensure appropriate mechanisms are in place.

  4. Risk assessment study of fire following an earthquake: a case study of petrochemical enterprises in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, J.; Wang, Y.; Chen, H.; Lin, L.

    2014-04-01

    After an earthquake, the fire risk of petrochemical enterprises is higher than that of other enterprises as it involves production processes with inflammable and explosive characteristics. Using Chinese petrochemical enterprises as the research object, this paper uses a literature review and case summaries to study, amongst others, the classification of petrochemical enterprises, the proportion of daily fires, and fire loss ratio. This paper builds a fire following an earthquake risk assessment model of petrochemical enterprises based on a previous earthquake fire hazard model, and the earthquake loss prediction assessment method, calculates the expected loss of the fire following an earthquake in various counties and draws a risk map. Moreover, this research identifies high-risk areas, concentrating on the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan region, and Shandong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang provinces. Differences in enterprise type produce different levels and distribution of petrochemical enterprise earthquake fire risk. Furthermore, areas at high risk of post-earthquake fires and with low levels of seismic fortification require extra attention to ensure appropriate mechanisms are in place.

  5. Risk of fire and dust explosions analysis in thermal Power station of ''As Pontes''; Analisis del Riesgo de fuego y Explosion en la Central Termica As Pontes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2000-07-01

    Among the numerous difficulties come up in the industrial processes that operate with coal, the handling of combustible solids constitutes a priority objective because of the potential risk of fire and dust explosions that implies. The aim of this project was to determine the coal usage conditions that assure total safety in its manipulation avoiding every risks at the Thermal Power Station. Several variables had to be considered starting with the basis concept of coal, which ranges very different types, compositions and origins and studying the coal handling and operation condition on different areas in the Thermal Power Station. (Author)

  6. Need for a probabilistic fire analysis at nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Calabuig Beneyto, J. L.; Ibanez Aparicio, J.

    1993-01-01

    Although fire protection standards for nuclear power plants cover a wide scope and are constantly being updated, the existence of certain constraints makes it difficult to precisely evaluate plant response to different postulatable fires. These constraints involve limitations such as: - Physical obstacles which impede the implementation of standards in certain cases; - Absence of general standards which cover all the situations which could arise in practice; - Possible temporary noncompliance of safety measures owing to unforeseen circumstances; - The fact that a fire protection standard cannot possibly take into account additional damages occurring simultaneously with the fire; Based on the experience of the ASCO NPP PSA developed within the framework of the joint venture, INITEC-INYPSA-EMPRESARIOS AGRUPADOS, this paper seeks to justify the need for a probabilistic analysis to overcome the limitations detected in general application of prevailing standards. (author)

  7. Evaluating Fire Risk in the Northeastern United States in the Past, Present, and Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, D.; Bradley, R. S.

    2017-12-01

    One poorly understood consequence of climate change is its effects on extreme events such as wildfires. Robust associations between wildfire frequency and climatic variability have been shown to exist, indicating that future climate change may continue to have a significant effect on wildfire activity. The Northeastern United States (NEUS) has seen some of the most infamous and largest historic fires in North America, such as the Miramichi Fire of 1825 and the fires of 1947. Although return intervals for large fires in the NEUS are long (hundreds of years), wildfires have played a critical role in ecosystem development and forest structure in the region. Understanding and predicting fire occurrence and vulnerability in the NEUS, especially in a changing climate, is economically and culturally important yet remains difficult due to human impacts (i.e. fire suppression activities and human disturbance). Thus, an alternative method for investigating fire risk in the NEUS is needed. Here, we present a compilation of meteorological data collected from Automated Surface Observing Systems (ASOS) from the NEUS throughout the 20th century through present day. We use these data to compute fifteen common "fire danger indices" employed in the USA and Canada to investigate changes in the region's fire risk over time, as well as the skill of each of these indices at predicting wildfire activity relative to the historical record of fires in the NEUS. We use dynamically-downscaled regional climate model output for the 21st century to project future wildfire activity based on the fire danger indices capable of capturing historical fire activity in the NEUS. These projections will aid in predicting how fire risk in the NEUS will evolve with anticipated climate change.

  8. Fire hazard analysis at the first unit of the Ignalina nuclear power plant: 1. Analysis of fire prevention and ventilation systems and secondary effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poskas, P.; Simonis, V.; Zujus, R. and others

    2004-01-01

    Evaluation of the fire prevention and ventilation systems and the secondary effects on safety at the Ignalina NPP from the point of view of fire hazard using computerized system is presented. Simplified screening algorithms for fire prevention, ventilation and the evaluation of secondary effects are developed, which allow accelerating fire hazard analysis at the Ignalina NPP. The analysis indicated that the fire prevention systems practically meet the national requirements and international recommendations for fire prevention. But it is necessary to introduce in separate rooms the measures improving fire prevention to guarantee the effective functioning of the ventilation systems and the reduction of the influence of secondary effects on safety. Computerized system of fire prevention and ventilation systems and evaluation of secondary effects on safety can be easily applied for fire hazard analysis at different big plants. (author)

  9. Observations on risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, W.A. Jr.

    1979-11-01

    This paper briefly describes WASH 1400 and the Lewis report. It attempts to define basic concepts such as risk and risk analysis, common mode failure, and rare event. Several probabilistic models which go beyond the WASH 1400 methodology are introduced; the common characteristic of these models is that they recognize explicitly that risk analysis is time dependent whereas WASH 1400 takes a per demand failure rate approach which obscures the important fact that accidents are time related. Further, the presentation of a realistic risk analysis should recognize that there are various risks which compete with one another for the lives of the individuals at risk. A way of doing this is suggested

  10. POZHARNYYe RISKI I IKH VLIYANIYe NA RISK-ORIYENTIROVANNYY PODKHOD PRI ORGANIZATSII I OSUSHCHESTVLENII FEDERAL'NOGO GOSUDARSTVENNOGO POZHARNOGO NADZORA [Fire risks and their impact on the risk-oriented approach in the organization and implementation of federal state fire supervision

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fomin A.I.

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The essence of fire risks and risk-oriented approaches in the organization and implementation of supervisory measures to fulfill the requirements in the field of fire safety is described. In accordance with the regulatory legal acts of the Russian Federation, the criteria for the assignment of protection objects and the frequency of conducting scheduled inspections with respect to them by the bodies of the federal state fire supervision are given. The influence of various factors on the risk category is given. Measures aimed at reducing the risk category and, as a result, reducing administrative barriers to the activities of legal entities and individuals have been identified. The analysis of the parameters influencing the magnitude of fire risks, as well as the risk category of the protection object, is given. The foregoing is provided in the form of an accessible scheme for persons who do not have special knowledge in meeting the requirements of fire safety. The urgency of developing a methodology and a criterion for reducing the hazard category of fire safety surveillance facilities is determined, taking into account the fulfillment by legal entities and individuals of previously issued regulations. That means: methodology, the application of which is possible when conducting unscheduled inspections by federal fire safety authorities.

  11. Multifractal analysis of forest fires in complex regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vega Orozco, C. D.; Kanevski, M.; Golay, J.; Tonini, M.; Conedera, M.

    2012-04-01

    Forest fires can be studied as point processes where the ignition points represent the set of locations of the observed events in a defined study region. Their spatial and temporal patterns can be characterized by their fractal properties; which quantify the global aspect of the geometry of the support data. However, a monofractal dimension can not completely describe the pattern structure and related scaling properties. Enhancements in fractal theory had developed the multifractal concept which describes the measures from which interlinked fractal sets can be retrieved and characterized by their fractal dimension and singularity strength [1, 2]. The spatial variability of forest fires is conditioned by an intermixture of human, topographic, meteorological and vegetation factors. This heterogeneity makes fire patterns complex scale-invariant processes difficult to be depicted by a single scale. Therefore, this study proposes an exploratory data analysis through a multifractal formalism to characterize and quantify the multiscaling behaviour of the spatial distribution pattern of this phenomenon in a complex region like the Swiss Alps. The studied dataset is represented by 2,401 georeferenced forest fire ignition points in canton Ticino, Switzerland, in a 40-years period from 1969 to 2008. Three multifractal analyses are performed: one assesses the multiscaling behaviour of fire occurrence probability of the support data (raw data) and four random patterns simulated within three different support domains; second analysis studies the multifractal behavior of patterns from anthropogenic and natural ignited fires (arson-, accident- and lightning-caused fires); and third analysis aims at detecting scale-dependency of the size of burned area. To calculate the generalized dimensions, Dq, a generalization of the box counting methods is carried out based on the generalization of Rényi information of the qth order moment of the probability distribution. For q > 0, Dq

  12. Safety analysis of the existing 804 and 845 firing facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Odell, B.N.

    1986-01-01

    A safety analysis was performed to determine if normal operations and/or potential accidents at the 804 and 845 Firing Facilities at Site 300 could present undue hazards to the general public, peronnel at Site 300, or have an adverse effect on the environment. The normal operation and credible accident that might have an effect on these facilities or have off-site consequence were considered. It was determined by this analysis that all but one of the hazards were either low or of the type or magnitude routinely encountered and/or accepted by the public. The exception was explosives. Since this hazard has the potential for causing significant on-site and minimum off-site consequences, Bunkers 804 and 845 have been classified as moderate hazard facilties per DOE Order 5481.1A. This safety analysis concluded that the operation at these facilities will present no undue risk to the health and safety of LLNL employees or the public

  13. Chapter 4. Predicting post-fire erosion and sedimentation risk on a landscape scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacDonald, L.H.; Sampson, R.; Brady, D.; Juarros, L.; Martin, Deborah

    2000-01-01

    Historic fire suppression efforts have increased the likelihood of large wildfires in much of the western U.S. Post-fire soil erosion and sedimentation risks are important concerns to resource managers. In this paper we develop and apply procedures to predict post-fire erosion and sedimentation risks on a pixel-, catchment-, and landscape-scale in central and western Colorado.Our model for predicting post-fire surface erosion risk is conceptually similar to the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE). One key addition is the incorporation of a hydrophobicity risk index (HY-RISK) based on vegetation type, predicted fire severity, and soil texture. Post-fire surface erosion risk was assessed for each 90-m pixel by combining HYRISK, slope, soil erodibility, and a factor representing the likely increase in soil wetness due to removal of the vegetation. Sedimentation risk was a simple function of stream gradient. Composite surface erosion and sedimentation risk indices were calculated and compared across the 72 catchments in the study area.When evaluated on a catchment scale, two-thirds of the catchments had relatively little post-fire erosion risk. Steeper catchments with higher fuel loadings typically had the highest post-fire surface erosion risk. These were generally located along the major north-south mountain chains and, to a lesser extent, in west-central Colorado. Sedimentation risks were usually highest in the eastern part of the study area where a higher proportion of streams had lower gradients. While data to validate the predicted erosion and sedimentation risks are lacking, the results appear reasonable and are consistent with our limited field observations. The models and analytic procedures can be readily adapted to other locations and should provide useful tools for planning and management at both the catchment and landscape scale.

  14. Physics Analysis of the FIRE Experiment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jardin, S.C.; Kessel, C.E.; Meade, D.; Breslau, J.; Fu, G.; Gorelenkov, N.; Manickam, J.; Park, W.; Strauss, H.

    2002-01-01

    An integrated model of a complete discharge in the FIRE experiment has been developed based on the TSC simulation code. The complete simulation model includes a choice of several models for core transport, combined with an edge pedestal model and the Porcelli sawtooth model. Burn control is provided by feedback on the auxiliary heating power. We find that with the GLF23 and MMM95 transport models, Q >10 operation should be possible for H-mode pedestal temperatures in the range of 4-5 keV

  15. Quantitative risk assessment of continuous liquid spill fires based on spread and burning behaviours

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Jinlong; Huang, Hong; Li, Yuntao

    2017-01-01

    Spill fires usually occur during the storage and transportation of hazardous materials, posing a threat to the people and environment in their immediate proximity. In this paper, a classical Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) method is used to assess the risk of spill fires. In this method......, the maximum spread area and the steady burning area are introduced as parameters to clearly assess the range of influence of the spill fire. In the calculations, a modified spread model that takes into consideration the burning rate variation is established to calculate the maximum spread area. Furthermore......, large-scale experiments of spill fires on water and a glass sheet were conducted to verify the accuracy and application of the model. The results show that the procedure we developed can be used to quantitatively calculate the risk associated with a continuous spill fire....

  16. Post Fire Safe Shutdown Analysis Using a Fault Tree Logic Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yim, Hyun Tae; Park, Jun Hyun

    2005-01-01

    Every nuclear power plant should have its own fire hazard analysis including the fire safe shutdown analysis. A safe shutdown (SSD) analysis is performed to demonstrate the capability of the plant to safely shut down for a fire in any given area. The basic assumption is that there will be fire damage to all cables and equipment located within a common fire area. When evaluating the SSD capabilities of the plant, based on a review of the systems, equipment and cables within each fire area, it should be determined which shutdown paths are either unaffected or least impacted by a postulated fire within the fire area. Instead of seeking a success path for safe shutdown given all cables and equipment damaged by a fire, there can be an alternative approach to determine the SSD capability: fault tree analysis. This paper introduces the methodology for fire SSD analysis using a fault tree logic model

  17. Forest fires in Pennsylvania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donald A. Haines; William A. Main; Eugene F. McNamara

    1978-01-01

    Describes factors that contribute to forest fires in Pennsylvania. Includes an analysis of basic statistics; distribution of fires during normal, drought, and wet years; fire cause, fire activity by day-of-week; multiple-fire day; and fire climatology.

  18. Risk reduction in road and rail LPG transportation bij passive fire protection

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Molag e.a., M. (Menso)

    2009-01-01

    The potential reduction of risk in LPG (Liquified Petroleum Gas) road transport due to the adoption of passive fire protectionswas investigated. Experimental data available for small scale vessels fully engulfed by a fire were extended to real scale road and rail tankers through a finite elements

  19. Risk reduction in road and rail LPG transportation by passive fire protection

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paltrinieri, N.; Landucci, G.; Molag, M.; Bonvicini, S.; Spadoni, G.; Cozzani, V.

    2009-01-01

    The potential reduction of risk in LPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) road transport due to the adoption of passive fire protections was investigated. Experimental data available for small scale vessels fully engulfed by a fire were extended to real scale road and rail tankers through a finite elements

  20. A risk-based approach to wildland fire budgetary planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthew P. Thompson; David E. Calkin; Mark A. Finney; Krista M. Gebert; Michael S. Hand

    2013-01-01

    The financial impact of wildfire management within the USDA Forest Service challenges the ability of the agency to meet societal demands and maintain forest health. The extent of this financial crisis has been attributed to historical and continuing fire management practices, changing climatic conditions, and increasing human development in fire-prone areas, as well as...

  1. Fire hazards analysis for the replacement cross-site transfer system, project W-058

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sepahpur, J.B.

    1996-01-01

    The fire hazards analysis assess the risk from fire and determines compliance with the applicable criteria of DOE 5480.7A, DOE 6430.1A, and RLID 5480.7. (Project W-058 will provide encased pipelines to connect the SY Tank Farms in 200 West Area with the tank farms in 200 East Area via an interface with the 244-A lift station. Function of the cross-site transfer system will be to transfer radioactive waste from the SY Tank Farm to treatment, storage, and disposal facilities in 200 East Area.)

  2. A fire risk assessment model for residential high-rises with a single stairwell

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, N. D.; Steffensen, F.B.; Valkvist, M.B.

    2018-01-01

    As few or none prescriptive guidelines for fire risk assessment of residential high-rise buildings exist, it has been unclear which fire safety design features constitute an acceptable (adequate) safety level. In order to fill this gap a simplified risk-based decision-support tool, the Fire Risk...... Model (FRM), was developed. The FRM evaluates both the risk level to the occupants and the property risk level as a function of the building characteristics, height and fire safety features for single stairwell residential high-rise buildings. The acceptability of a high-rise design is then defined......, and the associated performance of the FRM evaluated. It was found that compartmentation and the door configurations in the egress path play an important role, along with sprinklers, in order for the design to successfully keep the stairwell free from smoke. Specifically, modern curtain wall facades were found...

  3. Pilot fire radius size and its variation regarding the uncertainty in fire risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Argirov, J.

    1998-01-01

    The impact of a combustible load with limited amount of heat on the characteristics of fire generated local environment is considered. The combustible load apportionment on the floor and its ability to release the heat at a different rate regarding the temperatures and heat flux in zones formed in the NPP compartments is studied using calculations. Several ways of variation of a pilot fire radius in the same range are compared. (author)

  4. Fire prevention in industrial installations presenting a risk for man and environment (ICPE)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moche, L.

    2000-01-01

    The most likely accident in industrial installations is fire. 59 out of 100 accidents reported in 1999 describe a fire outbreak, the fire is either the initiating cause of the accident or the form into which the event eventually evolves. This article briefly describes the why and the wherefore of French regulations on fire prevention in installations presenting a risk for man and environment. The French system is based on the responsibility of the plant operator and on the result of inspections performed by authorities to check the conformity of the installation with current regulations. (A.C.)

  5. Radiological risk associated with a fire scenario in a radioactive waste deposit

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Domingos, E.N.; Lima, Z.R. de, E-mail: erica.ndomingos@gmail.com, E-mail: zelmolima@yahoo.com.br [Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear (PPGIEN/IEN/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Aguiar, L.A., E-mail: aguiar.lais@gmail.com [Instituto de Radioproteção e Dosimetria (IRD/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro-RJ (Brazil)

    2017-07-01

    A fire at the disposal of radioactive waste can result in significant damage, as well as serious risks to the environment and the health of the general public. The norms of CNEN (Comissão Nacional de Energia Nuclear), CNEN 2.03; CNEN 2.04 and CNEN 8.02 include fire protection regulations and have criteria and requirements that aim to prevent the occurrence, neutralize the action and minimize the effects of the fire on the radioactive and/or toxic mate-rial present in the installations. For decision making due to a fire scenario containing radioactive material, it is fundamental to have information that can allow the estimate of the dose to which the population will be submitted. This work proposes to identify the radiological risk of cancer in the respiratory system using the BEIR V model, associated with a fire scenario containing radioactive material generated in the Hotspot code. (author)

  6. Fire increases the risk of higher soil N2O emissions from Mediterranean Macchia ecosystems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karhu, Kristiina; Dannenmann, M.; Kitzler, B.

    2015-01-01

    on climate change. However, the potential importance of indirect GHG emissions due to changes in soil biological and chemical properties after fire is less well known. Increased soil mineral nitrogen (N) concentrations after fire pose a risk for increased emissions of gaseous N, but studies on the post......-fire N2O production and soil N turnover rates (mineralization, nitrification, microbial immobilization, denitrification) are still rare. We determined N2O production, rates of N turnover and pathways for N2O production from the soil of burned and unburned plots of a Macchia shrubland in central Spain...... using a 15N labelling approach. Measurements were initiated before the controlled burning and continued for up to half a year after fire. Fire markedly increased the risk of N2O emissions from soil through denitrification (N2O production rate was 3 to ≈30 times higher in burned soils compared to control...

  7. Evaluation of a temporal fire risk index in Mediterranean forests from NOAA thermal IR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vidal, A.; Pinglo, F.; Durand, H.; Devaux-Ros, C.; Maillet, A.

    1994-01-01

    Mediterranean forests are regularly subjected to a large number of fires; 537,000 ha were burned during the severe European drought of 1990. The French Ministries of Environment, Interior, and Agriculture are trying to implement efficient methods to prevent forest fires and to reduce their incidence. Fire risk is composed of human, ecological, and climatic factors that are already accounted for in prevention methods. However, the importance of biophysical factors, especially the water status of forest trees, bushes, grasses, and litter should also be considered. In a first step, thermal infrared data from NOAA-AVHRR daily images covering an 18-month period were used to estimate temporal variations of forest evapotranspiration through an energy budget-based relationship. Results were related to statistics on fire starts, in order to derive a fire risk index that can be used for a real-time regional alarm. (author)

  8. Managing the changing risk of fire in the South African landscape

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Van Wilgen, BW

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available and to develop early-warning syatem that will help to reduce or manage these risks. It also aims to quantify probabilities and consequences to help improve fire management approaches....

  9. Wildfire risk reduction in the United States: Leadership staff perceptions of local fire department roles and responsibilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rachel S. Madsen; Hylton J. G. Haynes; Sarah M. McCaffrey

    2018-01-01

    As wildland fires have had increasing negative impacts on a range of human values, in many parts of the United States (U.S.) and around the world, collaborative risk reduction efforts among agencies, homeowners, and fire departments are needed to improve wildfire safety and mitigate risk. Using interview data from 46 senior officers from local fire departments around...

  10. Manual fire fighting tactics at Nuclear Power Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jee, Moon Hak; Moon, Chan Kook

    2012-01-01

    The general requirements of fire protection at nuclear power plant (NPP) are fire protection program, fire hazard analysis, and fire prevention features. In addition, specific fire protection requirements such as water supplies, fire detection, fire protection of safe related equipment, and safe shutdown capabilities must be provided. Particularly, manual fire fighting is required as specific requirements with the provisions to secure manual fire suppression, fire brigade and its training, and administrative controls for manual fire fighting. If a fire is alarmed and confirmed to be a real fire, the fire brigade must take manual fire fighting activities as requested at fire protection program. According to the present requirements in itself, there is not any specific manual fire fighting ways or practical strategies. In general, fire zones or compartments at NPPs are built in a confined condition. In theory, the fire condition will change from a combustible-controlled fire to a ventilation-governing fire with the time duration. In case of pool fire with the abundant oxygen and flammable liquid, it can take just a few minutes for the flash-over to occur. For the well-confined fire zone, it will change from a flame fire to a smoldering state before the entrance door is opened by the fire brigade. In this context, the manual fire fighting activities must be based on a quantitative analysis and a fire risk evaluation. At this paper, it was suggested that the fire zones at NPPs should be grouped on the inherent functions and fire characteristics. Based on the fire risk characteristics and the fire zone grouping, the manual fire fighting tactics are suggested as an advanced fire fighting solution

  11. Fire hazards analysis for W-413, West Area Tank Farm Storage and Staging Facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huckfeldt, R.A.; Lott, D.T.

    1994-01-01

    In accordance with DOE Order 5480.7A, a Fire Hazards Analysis must be performed for all new facilities. The purpose of the analysis is to comprehensively assess the risk from fire within individual fire areas in relation to proposed fire protection so as to ascertain whether the fire protection objectives of the Order are met. The Order acknowledges a graded approach commensurate with the hazards involved. Tank Farms Operations must sore/stage material and equipment such as pipes, fittings, conduit, instrumentation and others related items until work packages are ready to work. Consumable materials, such as nut, bolts and welding rod, are also requires to be stored for routine and emergency work. Connex boxes and open storage is currently used for much of the storage because of the limited space at and 272WA. Safety issues based on poor housekeeping and material deteriorating due to weather damage has resulted from this inadequate storage space. It has been determined that a storage building in close proximity to the Tank Farm work force would be cost effective. This facility is classified as a safety class 4 building

  12. Numerical prediction of heat-flux to massive calorimeters engulfed in regulatory fires with the cask analysis fire environment (CAFE) model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koski, Jorman A.; Suo-Antitla, Ahti; Kramer M, Alex; Greiner, Miles

    2000-01-01

    Recent observations show that the thermal boundary conditions within large-scale fires are significantly affected by the presence of thermally massive objects. These objects cool the soot and gas near their surfaces, and these effects reduce the incoming radiant heat-flux to values lower than the levels expected from simple σT fire 4 models. They also affect the flow and temperature fields in the fire far from their surfaces. The Cask Analysis Fire Environment (CAFE) code has been developed at Sandia National Laboratories to provide an enhanced fire boundary condition for the design of radioactive material packages. CAFE is a set of computer subroutines that use computational fluid mechanics methods to predict convective heat transfer and mixing. It also includes models for fuel and oxygen transport, chemical reaction, and participating-media radiation heat transfer. This code uses two-dimensional computational models so that it has reasonably short turnaround times on standard workstations and is well suited for design and risk studies. In this paper, CAFE is coupled with a commercial finite-element program to model a large cylindrical calorimeter fully engulfed in a pool fire. The time-dependent heat-flux to the calorimeter and the calorimeter surface temperature are determined for several locations around the calorimeter circumference. The variation of heat-flux with location is determined for calorimeters with different diameters and wall thickness, and the observed effects discussed

  13. Optimization of investment economic in PCI using the methodology of benefits design in analysis of the spread of fires with FDS (Fire Dynamics Simulator) in areas of nuclear fire

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salellas, J.

    2015-01-01

    Fire simulation analysis allows knowing the evolution and spread fire in areas of interest within a NPP such as control room, cable room and multi zone comportment among others. fires are a main concern regarding safety analysis of NPP. IDOM has the capability to carry out fire simulations, taken in to account smoke control, fire spread, toxicity levels, ventilation and all physical phenomena. As a result, appropriate fire protection measures can be assessed in each scenario. CFD tools applied to fire simulations can determine with higher resolution all damages caused during the fire. Furthermore, such tools can reduce costs due to a lower impact of design modifications. (Author)

  14. Thermodynamic Analysis of Supplementary-Fired Gas Turbine Cycles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Elmegaard, Brian; Henriksen, Ulrik Birk; Qvale, Einar Bjørn

    2003-01-01

    to result in a high marginal efficiency. The paper shows that depending on the application, this is not always the case. The interest in this cycle arises from a recent demonstration of the feasibility of a two-stage gasification process through construction of several plants. The gas from this process...... could be divided into two streams, one for primary and one for supplementary firing. A preliminary analysis of the ideal, recuperated Brayton cycle shows that for this cycle any supplementary firing will have a marginal efficiency of unity per extra unit of fuel. The same result is obtained...

  15. Users Guide for Fire Image Analysis System - Version 5.0: A Tool for Measuring Fire Behavior Characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carl W. Adkins

    1995-01-01

    The Fire Image Analysis System is a tool for quantifying flame geometry and relative position at selected points along a spreading line fire. At present, the system requires uniform terrain (constant slope). The system has been used in field and laboratory studies for determining flame length, depth, cross sectional area, and rate of spread.

  16. Analysis of fire protection in nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hosser, D.; Schneider, U.

    1982-01-01

    Regulations and test specifications for fire prevention in nuclear power plants are presented as well as the fire protection measures in a newly constructed nuclear power plant. Although the emphasis is placed differently, all rules are based on the following single measures: Fire prevention, fire detection, fire fighting, fire checking, attack, flight, and rescue, organisational measures. (orig./GL) [de

  17. Fire Risk Assessment: A Systematic Review of the Methodology and Functional Areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Parisa Moshashaei

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Fire is a physical and social phenomenon that affects both individuals and the environment. Fire risk assessment is a critical part of a fire prevention program. In this process, the fire risk associated with the possibility of occurrence and severity of damage resulting from the fire is estimated and calculated. In this paper, a classification scheme and a systematic literature review are presented in order to classify and interpret the current researches on fire risk assessment methodologies and applications. Based on the scheme, 93 scholarly papers from 13 journals are categorized into application areas and other categories. The application areas include the papers on the topics of environmental impact, production and industry, transportation, buildings, power industry, oil and gas industry, urban fires and other topics. Scholarly papers are also classified by (1 year of publication, (2 journal of publication, (3 year of publication and application areas and (4 authors’ nationality. The survey results show that the largest number of papers was published during the period 2010-2012 with 31 (33.33%, the most of the studies have been carried out on environmental impact (47.31%, the journal of Forest Ecology and Management had the highest percentage of articles with 26.88%. It is hoped that the paper can meet the needs of researchers for easy references of fire risk assessment methodologies and applications. Therefore, this work would be able to provide useful insights into the anatomy of the fire-risk assessment methods, and suggest academic researchers and experts a framework for future attempts and researches.

  18. A fire hazard analysis at the Ignalina nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Joerud, F.; Magnusson, T.

    1998-01-01

    The fire hazard analysis (FHA) of the Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant (INPP) Unit no.1 was initiated during 1997 and is estimated to finalise in summer 1998. The reason for starting a FHA was a recommendation in the Safety Analysis Report and its review to prioritise a systematic FHA. Fire protection improvements had earlier been based on engineering assessments, but further improvements required a systematic FHA. It is also required by the regulator for licensing of unit no.1. In preparation of the analysis it was decided to perform a deterministic FHA to fulfil the requirements in the IAEA draft of a Safety Practice ''Preparation of Fire Hazard Analyses for Nuclear Power Plants''. As a supporting document the United States Department of Energy Reactor Core Protection Evaluation Methodology for Fires at RBMK and WWER Nuclear Power Plants (RCPEM) was agreed to be used. The assistance of the project is performed as a bilateral activity between Sweden and UK. The project management is the responsibility of the INPP. In order to transfer knowledge to the INPP project group, training activities are arranged by the western team. The project will be documented as a safety case. The project consists of parties from INPP, Sweden, UK and Russia which makes the project very dependent of good communication procedures. The most difficult problems is except from the problems with translation, the problems with different standards and lack of testing protocols of the fire protection installations and problems to set the right level of screening criteria. There is also the new dimension of making it possible to take credit for the fire brigade in the safety case, which can bring the project into difficulties. The most interesting challenges for the project are to set the most sensible safety levels in the screening phase, to handle the huge volume of rooms for survey and screening, to maintain the good exchange of fire- and nuclear safety information between all the parties involved

  19. Risk management: Core principles and practices, and their relevance to wildland fire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthew P. Thompson; Donald G. MacGregor; Dave Calkin

    2016-01-01

    The Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture faces a future of increasing complexity and risk, pressing financial issues, and the inescapable possibility of loss of human life. These issues are perhaps most acute for wildland fire management, the highest risk activity in which the Forest Service engages. Risk management (RM) has long been put forth as an...

  20. First Approximations of Prescribed Fire Risks Relative to Other Management Techniques Used on Private Lands.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dirac Twidwell

    Full Text Available Fire is widely recognized as a critical ecological and evolutionary driver that needs to be at the forefront of land management actions if conservation targets are to be met. However, the prevailing view is that prescribed fire is riskier than other land management techniques. Perceived risks associated with the application of fire limits its use and reduces agency support for prescribed burning in the private sector. As a result, considerably less cost-share support is given for prescribed fire compared to mechanical techniques. This study tests the general perception that fire is a riskier technique relative to other land management options. Due to the lack of data available to directly test this notion, we use a combination of approaches including 1 a comparison of fatalities resulting from different occupations that are proxies for techniques employed in land management, 2 a comparison of fatalities resulting from wildland fire versus prescribed fire, and 3 an exploration of causal factors responsible for wildland fire-related fatalities. This approach establishes a first approximation of the relative risk of fatality to private citizens using prescribed fire compared to other management techniques that are readily used in ecosystem management. Our data do not support using risks of landowner fatalities as justification for the use of alternative land management techniques, such as mechanical (machine-related equipment, over prescribed fire. Vehicles and heavy machinery are consistently leading reasons for fatalities within occupations selected as proxies for management techniques employed by ranchers and agricultural producers, and also constitute a large proportion of fatalities among firefighters. Our study provides the foundation for agencies to establish data-driven decisions regarding the degree of support they provide for prescribed burning on private lands.

  1. Is risk analysis scientific?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansson, Sven Ove; Aven, Terje

    2014-07-01

    This article discusses to what extent risk analysis is scientific in view of a set of commonly used definitions and criteria. We consider scientific knowledge to be characterized by its subject matter, its success in developing the best available knowledge in its fields of study, and the epistemic norms and values that guide scientific investigations. We proceed to assess the field of risk analysis according to these criteria. For this purpose, we use a model for risk analysis in which science is used as a base for decision making on risks, which covers the five elements evidence, knowledge base, broad risk evaluation, managerial review and judgment, and the decision; and that relates these elements to the domains experts and decisionmakers, and to the domains fact-based or value-based. We conclude that risk analysis is a scientific field of study, when understood as consisting primarily of (i) knowledge about risk-related phenomena, processes, events, etc., and (ii) concepts, theories, frameworks, approaches, principles, methods and models to understand, assess, characterize, communicate, and manage risk, in general and for specific applications (the instrumental part). © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  2. Fire and lightning: what are the risks and how to be protected?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rigal, F.

    2011-01-01

    This article reviews the risks of fire and lightning on photovoltaic panels installed on roofs. It appears that the risk of lighting must be taken into account since the direct impact of lightning on photovoltaic panels can be disastrous. The installation of lightning rods or lightning protector is recommended. Concerning fire risks, technical failures or the presence of electric arcs can put fire on solar panels but their occurrence is very low (only about 20 cases reported in Europe for the last 10 years). Tests have shown that standard photovoltaic panels play a low part in the progressing of a fire. There is an electrocution hazard for firemen intervening on a roof bearing solar panels. A device cutting the continuous current generating by the panels is being studied. (A.C.)

  3. Forest fire situation analysis over forest reserve land in Tomsk petroleum province

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pasko, O A; Baranova, A V

    2015-01-01

    The paper delivers the analysis of space-time characteristics of forest fire ignition and spread in the North of Tomsk oblast, i.e. petroleum production area (Kargasok, Parabel and Teguldet districts). It also presents long-term and seasonal forest fire behavior including fire ignition and spread frequency (annual and seasonal), the fire season duration and their zonality. The main driving factors of forest fire ignition both human and natural ones are revealed

  4. Forest-fire models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haiganoush Preisler; Alan Ager

    2013-01-01

    For applied mathematicians forest fire models refer mainly to a non-linear dynamic system often used to simulate spread of fire. For forest managers forest fire models may pertain to any of the three phases of fire management: prefire planning (fire risk models), fire suppression (fire behavior models), and postfire evaluation (fire effects and economic models). In...

  5. Identification of fire modeling issues based on an analysis of real events from the OECD FIRE database

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hermann, Dominik [Swiss Federal Nuclear Safety Inspectorate ENSI, Brugg (Switzerland)

    2017-03-15

    Precursor analysis is widely used in the nuclear industry to judge the significance of events relevant to safety. However, in case of events that may damage equipment through effects that are not ordinary functional dependencies, the analysis may not always fully appreciate the potential for further evolution of the event. For fires, which are one class of such events, this paper discusses modelling challenges that need to be overcome when performing a probabilistic precursor analysis. The events used to analyze are selected from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Fire Incidents Records Exchange (FIRE) Database.

  6. WRF-based fire risk modelling and evaluation for years 2010 and 2012 in Poland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stec, Magdalena; Szymanowski, Mariusz; Kryza, Maciej

    2016-04-01

    Wildfires are one of the main ecosystems' disturbances for forested, seminatural and agricultural areas. They generate significant economic loss, especially in forest management and agriculture. Forest fire risk modeling is therefore essential e.g. for forestry administration. In August 2015 a new method of forest fire risk forecasting entered into force in Poland. The method allows to predict a fire risk level in a 4-degree scale (0 - no risk, 3 - highest risk) and consists of a set of linearized regression equations. Meteorological information is used as predictors in regression equations, with air temperature, relative humidity, average wind speed, cloudiness and rainfall. The equations include also pine litter humidity as a measure of potential fuel characteristics. All these parameters are measured routinely in Poland at 42 basic and 94 auxiliary sites. The fire risk level is estimated for a current (basing on morning measurements) or next day (basing on midday measurements). Entire country is divided into 42 prognostic zones, and fire risk level for each zone is taken from the closest measuring site. The first goal of this work is to assess if the measurements needed for fire risk forecasting may be replaced by the data from mesoscale meteorological model. Additionally, the use of a meteorological model would allow to take into account much more realistic spatial differentiation of weather elements determining the fire risk level instead of discrete point-made measurements. Meteorological data have been calculated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF). For the purpose of this study the WRF model is run in the reanalysis mode allowing to estimate all required meteorological data in a 5-kilometers grid. The only parameter that cannot be directly calculated using WRF is the litter humidity, which has been estimated using empirical formula developed by Sakowska (2007). The experiments are carried out for two selected years: 2010 and 2012. The

  7. Income risk of EU coal-fired power plants after Kyoto

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abadie, Luis M.; Chamorro, Jose M.

    2009-01-01

    Coal-fired power plants enjoy a significant advantage relative to gas plants in terms of cheaper fuel cost. This advantage may erode (or turn into disadvantage) depending on CO 2 emission allowance price. Financial risks are further reinforced when the price of electricity is determined by natural gas-fired plants' marginal costs. We aim to empirically assess the risks in EU coal plants' margins up to the year 2020. Parameter values are derived from actual market data. Monte Carlo simulation allows compute the expected value and risk profile of coal plants' earnings. Future allowance prices may spell significant risks on utilities' balance sheets. (author)

  8. NACOM - a code for sodium spray fire analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rao, P.M.; Kannan, S.E.

    2002-01-01

    Full text: In liquid metal fast breeder reactors (LMFBR), leakage of sodium can result in a spray fire. Because of higher burning rates in droplet form combustion of sodium in spray fire, thermal consequences are more severe than that in a sodium pool fire. The code NACOM was developed for the analysis of sodium spray fires in LMFBRs facilities. The code uses the validated model for estimating the falling droplet burning rates in pre-ignition and vapour phase combustion stages. It uses a distribution system to generate the droplet groups of different diameters that represent the spray. The code requires about 20 input parameters like sodium leak rates, sodium temperature, initial cell conditions like oxygen concentration, temperature and dimensions. NACOM is a validated code based on experiments with sodium inventory up to 650 kg in 0 to 21 % O 2 atmospheres. The paper brings out the salient features of the code along with the sensitivity analysis of the main input parameters like spray volume mean diameter, oxygen concentration etc. based on the results obtained. The limitations of the code and the confidence margins applicable to results obtained are also brought out

  9. Comparative risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niehaus, F.

    1988-01-01

    In this paper, the risks of various energy systems are discussed considering severe accidents analysis, particularly the probabilistic safety analysis, and probabilistic safety criteria, and the applications of these criteria and analysis. The comparative risk analysis has demonstrated that the largest source of risk in every society is from daily small accidents. Nevertheless, we have to be more concerned about severe accidents. The comparative risk analysis of five different energy systems (coal, oil, gas, LWR and STEC (Solar)) for the public has shown that the main sources of risks are coal and oil. The latest comparative risk study of various energy has been conducted in the USA and has revealed that the number of victims from coal is 42 as many than victims from nuclear. A study for severe accidents from hydro-dams in United States has estimated the probability of dam failures at 1 in 10,000 years and the number of victims between 11,000 and 260,000. The average occupational risk from coal is one fatal accident in 1,000 workers/year. The probabilistic safety analysis is a method that can be used to assess nuclear energy risks, and to analyze the severe accidents, and to model all possible accident sequences and consequences. The 'Fault tree' analysis is used to know the probability of failure of the different systems at each point of accident sequences and to calculate the probability of risks. After calculating the probability of failure, the criteria for judging the numerical results have to be developed, that is the quantitative and qualitative goals. To achieve these goals, several systems have been devised by various countries members of AIEA. The probabilistic safety ana-lysis method has been developed by establishing a computer program permit-ting to know different categories of safety related information. 19 tabs. (author)

  10. Risk of hospitalization for fire-related burns during extreme cold weather.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayoub, Aimina; Kosatsky, Tom; Smargiassi, Audrey; Bilodeau-Bertrand, Marianne; Auger, Nathalie

    2017-10-01

    Environmental factors are important predictors of fires, but no study has examined the association between outdoor temperature and fire-related burn injuries. We sought to investigate the relationship between extremely cold outdoor temperatures and the risk of hospitalization for fire-related burns. We carried out a time-stratified case-crossover study of 2470 patients hospitalized for fire-related burn injuries during cold months between 1989 and 2014 in Quebec, Canada. The main exposure was the minimum outdoor temperature on the day of and the day before the burn. We computed odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) to evaluate the relationship between minimum temperature and fire-related burns, and assessed how associations varied across sex and age. Exposure to extreme cold temperature was associated with a significantly higher risk of hospitalization for fire-related burns. Compared with 0°C, exposure to a minimum temperature of -30°C was associated with an OR of 1.51 (95% CI 1.22-1.87) for hospitalization for fire-related burns. The associations were somewhat stronger for women, youth, and the elderly. Compared with 0°C, a minimum temperature of -30°C was associated with an OR for fire-related burn hospitalization of 1.65 for women (95% CI 1.13-2.40), 1.60 for age fire-related burns. Measures to prevent fires should be implemented prior to the winter season, and enhanced during extreme cold. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Production and efficiency of large wildland fire suppression effort: A stochastic frontier analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katuwal, Hari; Calkin, David E; Hand, Michael S

    2016-01-15

    This study examines the production and efficiency of wildland fire suppression effort. We estimate the effectiveness of suppression resource inputs to produce controlled fire lines that contain large wildland fires using stochastic frontier analysis. Determinants of inefficiency are identified and the effects of these determinants on the daily production of controlled fire line are examined. Results indicate that the use of bulldozers and fire engines increase the production of controlled fire line, while firefighter crews do not tend to contribute to controlled fire line production. Production of controlled fire line is more efficient if it occurs along natural or built breaks, such as rivers and roads, and within areas previously burned by wildfires. However, results also indicate that productivity and efficiency of the controlled fire line are sensitive to weather, landscape and fire characteristics. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Combining engineering and data-driven approaches: Development of a generic fire risk model facilitating calibration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    De Sanctis, G.; Fischer, K.; Kohler, J.

    2014-01-01

    Fire risk models support decision making for engineering problems under the consistent consideration of the associated uncertainties. Empirical approaches can be used for cost-benefit studies when enough data about the decision problem are available. But often the empirical approaches...... a generic risk model that is calibrated to observed fire loss data. Generic risk models assess the risk of buildings based on specific risk indicators and support risk assessment at a portfolio level. After an introduction to the principles of generic risk assessment, the focus of the present paper...... are not detailed enough. Engineering risk models, on the other hand, may be detailed but typically involve assumptions that may result in a biased risk assessment and make a cost-benefit study problematic. In two related papers it is shown how engineering and data-driven modeling can be combined by developing...

  13. SYSTEMS SAFETY ANALYSIS FOR FIRE EVENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ECRB CROSS DRIFT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    R. J. Garrett

    2001-01-01

    The purpose of this analysis is to systematically identify and evaluate fire hazards related to the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project (YMP) Enhanced Characterization of the Repository Block (ECRB) East-West Cross Drift (commonly referred to as the ECRB Cross-Drift). This analysis builds upon prior Exploratory Studies Facility (ESF) System Safety Analyses and incorporates Topopah Springs (TS) Main Drift fire scenarios and ECRB Cross-Drift fire scenarios. Accident scenarios involving the fires in the Main Drift and the ECRB Cross-Drift were previously evaluated in ''Topopah Springs Main Drift System Safety Analysis'' (CRWMS M and O 1995) and the ''Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project East-West Drift System Safety Analysis'' (CRWMS M and O 1998). In addition to listing required mitigation/control features, this analysis identifies the potential need for procedures and training as part of defense-in-depth mitigation/control features. The inclusion of this information in the System Safety Analysis (SSA) is intended to assist the organization(s) (e.g., Construction, Environmental Safety and Health, Design) responsible for these aspects of the ECRB Cross-Drift in developing mitigation/control features for fire events, including Emergency Refuge Station(s). This SSA was prepared, in part, in response to Condition/Issue Identification and Reporting/Resolution System (CIRS) item 1966. The SSA is an integral part of the systems engineering process, whereby safety is considered during planning, design, testing, and construction. A largely qualitative approach is used which incorporates operating experiences and recommendations from vendors, the constructor and the operating contractor. The risk assessment in this analysis characterizes the scenarios associated with fires in terms of relative risk and includes recommendations for mitigating all identified hazards. The priority for recommending and implementing mitigation control features is: (1) Incorporate

  14. Information Security Risk Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Peltier, Thomas R

    2010-01-01

    Offers readers with the knowledge and the skill-set needed to achieve a highly effective risk analysis assessment. This title demonstrates how to identify threats and then determine if those threats pose a real risk. It is suitable for industry and academia professionals.

  15. Fatigue risk management by volunteer fire-fighters: Use of informal strategies to augment formal policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawson, Drew; Mayger, Katherine; Thomas, Matthew J W; Thompson, Kirrilly

    2015-11-01

    An increasing number and intensity of catastrophic fire events in Australia has led to increasing demands on a mainly volunteer fire-fighting workforce. Despite the increasing likelihood of fatigue in the emergency services environment, there is not yet a systematic, unified approach to fatigue management in fire agencies across Australia. Accordingly, the aim of this study was to identify informal strategies used in volunteer fire-fighting and examine how these strategies are transmitted across the workforce. Thirty experienced Australian volunteer fire-fighters were interviewed in August 2010. The study identified informal fatigue-management behaviours at the individual, team and brigade level that have evolved in fire-fighting environments and are regularly implemented. However, their purpose was not explicitly recognized as such. This apparent paradox - that fatigue proofing behaviours exist but that they are not openly understood as such - may well resolve a potential conflict between a culture of indefatigability in the emergency services sector and the frequent need to operate safely while fatigued. However, formal controls require fire-fighters and their organisations to acknowledge and accept their vulnerability. This suggests two important areas in which to improve formal fatigue risk management in the emergency services sector: (1) identifying and formalising tacit or informal fatigue coping strategies as legitimate elements of the fatigue risk management system; and (2) developing culturally appropriate techniques for systematically communicating fatigue levels to self and others. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Archer Fire and Safety - reducing risk in the offshore

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Todd, K

    2000-06-01

    Protecting the lives and safety of offshore oil and gas workers is the business of Newfoundland-based Archer Fire and Safety. Originally established as a supplier of industrial materials focusing on the oil and gas industry, the company narrowed its focus in 1996 to fire and safety protection, introduced more specialized fire and safety equipment, and began to explore service opportunities to the industry in addition to the usual consumables. After some anxious few years, the company now operates two SCBA service centres in Newfoundland, in addition to sales and servicing a wide range of fire and safety equipment such as gas, flame and heat detection.The company is constantly on the lookout for new opportunities and has developed a computer-based pricing system which enables them to provide quick response to pricing inquiries, a big advantage in an industry with relatively unsophisticated business practices. The company's emphasis on research and quick response capability enabled the company to anticipate future requirements and to land major contracts first at Bull Arm, and later on the Terra Nova Project. Its reputation for best-in-class products, high quality service and a business-like approach helped to attract other clients such as Terra Nova Alliance, Canship and Schlumberger, and offshore drilling companies like Glomar International and TransOcean Sedco-Forex, with further opportunities in the offing with upcoming projects such as the White Rose and Hebron.Today about 60 per cent of the business is offshore related.

  17. Archer Fire and Safety - reducing risk in the offshore

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Todd, K.

    2000-06-01

    Protecting the lives and safety of offshore oil and gas workers is the business of Newfoundland-based Archer Fire and Safety. Originally established as a supplier of industrial materials focusing on the oil and gas industry, the company narrowed its focus in 1996 to fire and safety protection, introduced more specialized fire and safety equipment, and began to explore service opportunities to the industry in addition to the usual consumables. After some anxious few years, the company now operates two SCBA service centres in Newfoundland, in addition to sales and servicing a wide range of fire and safety equipment such as gas, flame and heat detection.The company is constantly on the lookout for new opportunities and has developed a computer-based pricing system which enables them to provide quick response to pricing inquiries, a big advantage in an industry with relatively unsophisticated business practices. The company's emphasis on research and quick response capability enabled the company to anticipate future requirements and to land major contracts first at Bull Arm, and later on the Terra Nova Project. Its reputation for best-in-class products, high quality service and a business-like approach helped to attract other clients such as Terra Nova Alliance, Canship and Schlumberger, and offshore drilling companies like Glomar International and TransOcean Sedco-Forex, with further opportunities in the offing with upcoming projects such as the White Rose and Hebron.Today about 60 per cent of the business is offshore related.

  18. The Assessment of Risk Caused By Fire and Explosion in Chemical Process Industry: A Domino Effect-Based Study

    OpenAIRE

    Kadri , Farid; Chatelet , E.; Lallement , Patrick

    2013-01-01

    International audience; In the field of risks analysis, the domino effect has been documented in technical literature since 1947. The accidents caused by the domino effect are the most destructive accidents related to industrial plants. Fire and explosion are among the most frequent primary accidents for a domino effect due to the units under pressure and the storage of flammable and dangerous substances. Heat radiation and overpressure are one of major factors leading to domino effect on ind...

  19. Risk management of emergency service vehicle crashes in the United States fire service: process, outputs, and recommendations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bui, David P; Pollack Porter, Keshia; Griffin, Stephanie; French, Dustin D; Jung, Alesia M; Crothers, Stephen; Burgess, Jefferey L

    2017-11-17

    Emergency service vehicle crashes (ESVCs) are a leading cause of death in the United States fire service. Risk management (RM) is a proactive process for identifying occupational risks and reducing hazards and unwanted events through an iterative process of scoping hazards, risk assessment, and implementing controls. We describe the process, outputs, and lessons learned from the application of a proactive RM process to reduce ESVCs in US fire departments. Three fire departments representative of urban, suburban, and rural geographies, participated in a facilitated RM process delivered through focus groups and stakeholder discussion. Crash reports from department databases were reviewed to characterize the context, circumstances, hazards and risks of ESVCs. Identified risks were ranked using a risk matrix that considered risk likelihood and severity. Department-specific control measures were selected based on group consensus. Interviews, and focus groups were used to assess acceptability and utility of the RM process and perceived facilitators and barriers of implementation. Three to six RM meetings were conducted at each fire department. There were 7.4 crashes per 100 personnel in the urban department and 10.5 per 100 personnel in the suburban department; the rural department experienced zero crashes. All departments identified emergency response, backing, on scene struck by, driver distraction, vehicle/road visibility, and driver training as high or medium concerns. Additional high priority risks varied by department; the urban department prioritized turning and rear ending crashes; the suburban firefighters prioritized inclement weather/road environment and low visibility related crashes; and the rural volunteer fire department prioritized exiting station, vehicle failure, and inclement weather/road environment related incidents. Selected controls included new policies and standard operating procedures to reduce emergency response, cameras to enhance driver

  20. Comparison of the characteristics of fire and non-fire households in the 2004-2005 survey of fire department-attended and unattended fires.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greene, Michael A

    2012-06-01

    Comparison of characteristics of fire with non-fire households to determine factors differentially associated with fire households (fire risk factors). National household telephone survey in 2004-2005 by the US Consumer Product Safety Commission with 916 fire households and a comparison sample of 2161 non-fire households. There were an estimated 7.4 million fires (96.6% not reported to fire departments) with 130,000 injuries. Bivariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression analyses to assess differences in household characteristics. Significant factors associated with fire households were renting vs. owning (OR 1.988 pfire households with non-cooking fires (OR 1.383 p=0.0011). Single family houses were associated with non-fire households in the bivariate analysis but not in the multivariate analyses. Renting, household members under 18 years old and smokers are risk factors for unattended fires, similar to the literature for fatal and injury fires. Differences included household members over 65 years old (associated with non-fire households), college/postgraduate education (associated with fire households) and lack of significance of income. Preventing cooking fires (64% of survey incidents), smoking prevention efforts and fire prevention education for families with young children have the potential for reducing unattended fires and injuries.

  1. Visibility analysis of fire lookout towers in the Boyabat State Forest Enterprise in Turkey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kucuk, Omer; Topaloglu, Ozer; Altunel, Arif Oguz; Cetin, Mehmet

    2017-07-01

    For a successful fire suppression, it is essential to detect and intervene forest fires as early as possible. Fire lookout towers are crucial assets in detecting forest fires, in addition to other technological advancements. In this study, we performed a visibility analysis on a network of fire lookout towers currently operating in a relatively fire-prone region in Turkey's Western Black Sea region. Some of these towers had not been functioning properly; it was proposed that these be taken out of the grid and replaced with new ones. The percentage of visible areas under the current network of fire lookout towers was 73%; it could rise to 81% with the addition of newly proposed towers. This study was the first research to conduct a visibility analysis of current and newly proposed fire lookout towers in the Western Black Sea region and focus on its forest fire problem.

  2. Assessing Wildfire Risk in Cultural Heritage Properties Using High Spatial and Temporal Resolution Satellite Imagery and Spatially Explicit Fire Simulations: The Case of Holy Mount Athos, Greece

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giorgos Mallinis

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Fire management implications and the design of conservation strategies on fire prone landscapes within the UNESCO World Heritage Properties require the application of wildfire risk assessment at landscape level. The objective of this study was to analyze the spatial variation of wildfire risk on Holy Mount Athos in Greece. Mt. Athos includes 20 monasteries and other structures that are threatened by increasing frequency of wildfires. Site-specific fuel models were created by measuring in the field several fuel parameters in representative natural fuel complexes, while the spatial extent of the fuel types was determined using a synergy of high-resolution imagery and high temporal information from medium spatial resolution imagery classified through object-based analysis and a machine learning classifier. The Minimum Travel Time (MTT algorithm, as it is embedded in FlamMap software, was applied in order to evaluate Burn Probability (BP, Conditional Flame Length (CFL, Fire Size (FS, and Source-Sink Ratio (SSR. The results revealed low burn probabilities for the monasteries; however, nine out of the 20 monasteries have high fire potential in terms of fire intensity, which means that if an ignition occurs, an intense fire is expected. The outputs of this study may be used for decision-making for short-term predictions of wildfire risk at an operational level, contributing to fire suppression and management of UNESCO World Heritage Properties.

  3. Remote Sensing of Wildland Fire-Induced Risk Assessment at the Community Level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, M Razu; Rahaman, Khan Rubayet; Hassan, Quazi K

    2018-05-15

    Wildland fires are some of the critical natural hazards that pose a significant threat to the communities located in the vicinity of forested/vegetated areas. In this paper, our overall objective was to study the structural damages due to the 2016 Horse River Fire (HRF) that happened in Fort McMurray (Alberta, Canada) by employing primarily very high spatial resolution optical satellite data, i.e., WorldView-2. Thus, our activities included the: (i) estimation of the structural damages; and (ii) delineation of the wildland-urban interface (WUI) and its associated buffers at certain intervals, and their utilization in assessing potential risks. Our proposed method of remote sensing-based estimates of the number of structural damages was compared with the ground-based information available from the Planning and Development Recovery Committee Task Force of Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo (RMWB); and found a strong linear relationship (i.e., r² value of 0.97 with a slope of 0.97). Upon delineating the WUI and its associated buffer zones at 10 m, 30 m, 50 m, 70 m and 100 m distances; we found existence of vegetation within the 30 m buffers from the WUI for all of the damaged structures. In addition, we noticed that the relevant authorities had removed vegetation in some areas between 30 m and 70 m buffers from the WUI, which was proven to be effective in order to protect the structures in the adjacent communities. Furthermore, we mapped the wildland fire-induced vulnerable areas upon considering the WUI and its associated buffers. Our analysis revealed that approximately 30% of the areas within the buffer zones of 10 m and 30 m were vulnerable due to the presence of vegetation; in which, approximately 7% were burned during the 2016 HRF event that led the structural damages. Consequently, we suggest to remove the existing vegetation within these critical zones and also monitor the region at a regular interval in order to reduce the wildland fire-induced risk.

  4. Comparing modern and presettlement forest dynamics of a subboreal wilderness: Does spruce budworm enhance fire risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sturtevant, Brian R.; Miranda, Brian R.; Shinneman, Douglas J.; Gustafson, Eric J.; Wolter, Peter T.

    2012-01-01

    Insect disturbance is often thought to increase fire risk through enhanced fuel loadings, particularly in coniferous forest ecosystems. Yet insect disturbances also affect successional pathways and landscape structure that interact with fire disturbances (and vice-versa) over longer time scales. We applied a landscape succession and disturbance model (LANDIS-II) to evaluate the relative strength of interactions between spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana) outbreaks and fire disturbances in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area (BWCA) in northern Minnesota (USA). Disturbance interactions were evaluated for two different scenarios: presettlement forests and fire regimes vs. contemporary forests and fire regimes. Forest composition under the contemporary scenario trended toward mixtures of deciduous species (primarily Betula papyrifera and Populus spp.) and shade-tolerant conifers (Picea mariana, Abies balsamea, Thuja occidentalis), with disturbances dominated by a combination of budworm defoliation and high-severity fires. The presettlement scenario retained comparatively more “big pines” (i.e., Pinus strobus, P. resinosa) and tamarack (L. laricina), and experienced less budworm disturbance and a comparatively less-severe fire regime. Spruce budworm disturbance decreased area burned and fire severity under both scenarios when averaged across the entire 300-year simulations. Contrary to past research, area burned and fire severity during outbreak decades were each similar to that observed in non-outbreak decades. Our analyses suggest budworm disturbances within forests of the BWCA have a comparatively weak effect on long-term forest composition due to a combination of characteristics. These include strict host specificity, fine-scaled patchiness created by defoliation damage, and advance regeneration of its primary host, balsam fir (A. balsamea) that allows its host to persist despite repeated disturbances. Understanding the nature of the three-way interaction

  5. Predicting hydrological and erosional risks in fire-affected watersheds: recent advances and research gaps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nunes, João Pedro; Keizer, Jan Jacob

    2017-04-01

    Models can be invaluable tools to assess and manage the impacts of forest fires on hydrological and erosion processes. Immediately after fires, models can be used to identify priority areas for post-fire interventions or assess the risks of flooding and downstream contamination. In the long term, models can be used to evaluate the long-term implications of a fire regime for soil protection, surface water quality and potential management risks, or determine how changes to fire regimes, caused e.g. by climate change, can impact soil and water quality. However, several challenges make post-fire modelling particularly difficult: • Fires change vegetation cover and properties, such as by changing soil water repellency or by adding an ash layer over the soil; these processes, however are not described in currently used models, so that existing models need to be modified and tested. • Vegetation and soils recover with time since fire, changing important model parameters, so that the recovery processes themselves also need to be simulated, including the role of post-fire interventions. • During the window of vegetation and soil disturbance, particular weather conditions, such as the occurrence of severe droughts or extreme rainfall events, can have a large impact on the amount of runoff and erosion produced in burnt areas, so that models that smooth out these peak responses and rather simulate "long-term" average processes are less useful. • While existing models can simulate reasonable well slope-scale runoff generation and associated sediment losses and their catchment-scale routing, few models can accommodate the role of the ash layer or its transport by overland flow, in spite of its importance for soil fertility losses and downstream contamination. This presentation will provide an overview of the importance of post-fire hydrological and erosion modelling as well as of the challenges it faces and of recent efforts made to overcome these challenges. It will

  6. Earth, wind, and fire: Wildfire risk perceptions in a hurricane-prone environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soren M. Newman; Matthew S. Carroll; Pamela J. Jakes; Daniel R. Williams; Lorie L. Higgins

    2014-01-01

    Wildfire is one of several potential disturbances that could have extraordinary impacts on individuals and communities in fire-prone areas. In this article we describe disturbance risk perceptions from interviews with residents in three Florida communities that face significant wildfire and hurricane risk. Although they live in areas characterized by emergency managers...

  7. Barriers to implementation of risk management for federal wildland fire management agencies in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dave Calkin; Matthew P. Thompson; Alan A. Ager; Mark Finney

    2010-01-01

    In this presentation we review progress towards the implementation of a risk-based management framework for U.S. Federal wildland fire policy and operations. We first describe new developments in wildfire simulation technology that catalyzed the development of risk-based decision support systems for strategic wildfire management. These systems include new analytical...

  8. Risk terminology primer: Basic principles and a glossary for the wildland fire management community

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthew P. Thompson; Tom Zimmerman; Dan Mindar; Mary Taber

    2016-01-01

    Risk management is being increasingly promoted as an appropriate method for addressing wildland fire management challenges. However, a lack of a common understanding of risk concepts and terminology is hindering effective application. In response, this General Technical Report provides a set of clear, consistent, understandable, and usable definitions for terms...

  9. Component of the risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martinez, I.; Campon, G.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation reviews issues like analysis of risk (Codex), management risk, preliminary activities manager, relationship between government and industries, microbiological danger and communication of risk

  10. Econometric analysis of fire suppression production functions for large wildland fires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas P. Holmes; David E. Calkin

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we use operational data collected for large wildland fires to estimate the parameters of economic production functions that relate the rate of fireline construction with the level of fire suppression inputs (handcrews, dozers, engines and helicopters). These parameter estimates are then used to evaluate whether the productivity of fire suppression inputs...

  11. Unsharpness-risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Preyssl, C.

    1986-01-01

    Safety analysis provides the only tool for evaluation and quantification of rare or hypothetical events leading to system failure. So far probability theory has been used for the fault- and event-tree methodology. The phenomenon of uncertainties constitutes an important aspect in risk analysis. Uncertainties can be classified as originating from 'randomness' or 'fuzziness'. Probability theory addresses randomness only. The use of 'fuzzy set theory' makes it possible to include both types of uncertainty in the mathematical model of risk analysis. Thus the 'fuzzy fault tree' is expressed in 'possibilistic' terms implying a range of simplifications and improvements. 'Human failure' and 'conditionality' can be treated correctly. Only minimum-maximum relations are used to combine the possibility distributions of events. Various event-classifications facilitate the interpretation of the results. The method is demonstrated by application to a TRIGA-research reactor. Uncertainty as an implicit part of 'fuzzy risk' can be quantified explicitly using an 'uncertainty measure'. Based on this the 'degree of relative compliance' with a quantizative safety goal can be defined for a particular risk. The introduction of 'weighting functionals' guarantees the consideration of the importances attached to different parts of the risk exceeding or complying with the standard. The comparison of two reference systems is demonstrated in a case study. It is concluded that any application of the 'fuzzy risk analysis' has to be free of any hypostatization when reducing subjective to objective information. (Author)

  12. Exposure to an Indoor Cooking Fire and Risk of Trachoma in Children of Kongwa, Tanzania.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea I Zambrano

    Full Text Available Elimination of blinding trachoma by 2020 can only be achieved if affected areas have effective control programs in place before the target date. Identifying risk factors for active disease that are amenable to intervention is important to successfully design such programs. Previous studies have linked sleeping by a cooking fire to trachoma in children, but not fully explored the mechanism and risks. We propose to determine the risk for active trachoma in children with exposure to cooking fires by severity of trachoma, adjusting for other known risk factors.Complete census of 52 communities in Kongwa, Tanzania, was conducted to collect basic household characteristics and demographic information on each family member. Information on exposure to indoor cooking fires while the mother was cooking and while sleeping for each child was collected. 6656 randomly selected children ages 1-9 yrs were invited to a survey where both eyelids were graded for follicular (TF and intense trachoma (TI using the WHO simplified grading scheme. Ocular swab were taken to assess the presence of Chlamydia trachomatis.5240 (79% of the invited children participated in the study. Overall prevalence for trachoma was 6·1%. Odds for trachoma and increased severity were higher in children sleeping without ventilation and a cooking fire in their room (TF OR = 1·81, 1·00-3·27 and TI OR 4·06, 1·96-8·42. Children with TF or TI who were exposed were more likely to have infection than children with TF or TI who were not exposed. There was no increased risk with exposure to a cooking fire while the mother was cooking.In addition to known risk factors for trachoma, sleeping by an indoor cooking fire in a room without ventilation was associated with active trachoma and appears to substantially increase the risk of intense inflammation.

  13. Exposure to an Indoor Cooking Fire and Risk of Trachoma in Children of Kongwa, Tanzania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zambrano, Andrea I; Muñoz, Beatriz E; Mkocha, Harran; West, Sheila K

    2015-01-01

    Elimination of blinding trachoma by 2020 can only be achieved if affected areas have effective control programs in place before the target date. Identifying risk factors for active disease that are amenable to intervention is important to successfully design such programs. Previous studies have linked sleeping by a cooking fire to trachoma in children, but not fully explored the mechanism and risks. We propose to determine the risk for active trachoma in children with exposure to cooking fires by severity of trachoma, adjusting for other known risk factors. Complete census of 52 communities in Kongwa, Tanzania, was conducted to collect basic household characteristics and demographic information on each family member. Information on exposure to indoor cooking fires while the mother was cooking and while sleeping for each child was collected. 6656 randomly selected children ages 1-9 yrs were invited to a survey where both eyelids were graded for follicular (TF) and intense trachoma (TI) using the WHO simplified grading scheme. Ocular swab were taken to assess the presence of Chlamydia trachomatis. 5240 (79%) of the invited children participated in the study. Overall prevalence for trachoma was 6·1%. Odds for trachoma and increased severity were higher in children sleeping without ventilation and a cooking fire in their room (TF OR = 1·81, 1·00-3·27 and TI OR 4·06, 1·96-8·42). Children with TF or TI who were exposed were more likely to have infection than children with TF or TI who were not exposed. There was no increased risk with exposure to a cooking fire while the mother was cooking. In addition to known risk factors for trachoma, sleeping by an indoor cooking fire in a room without ventilation was associated with active trachoma and appears to substantially increase the risk of intense inflammation.

  14. Development of new index for forest fire risk using satellite images in Indonesia through the direct spectral measurements of soil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hashimoto, A.; Akita, M.; Takahashi, Y.; Suzuki, H.; Hasegawa, Y.; Ogino, Y.; Naruse, N.; Takahashi, Y.

    2016-12-01

    In recent years, the smoke caused by the forest fires in Indonesia has become a serious problem. Most of the land in Indonesia is covered with peat moss, which occurs the expanding of fires due to the burning itself. Thus, the surface soil water, reflecting the amount of precipitation in the area, can become the indication of the risk of fires. This study aims to develop a new index reflecting the risk of forest fires in Indonesia using satellite remote sensing through the direct spectral measurements of peat moss soil.We have prepared the peat moss in 7 steps of soil water content measured at an accuracy of ±15 percent (Field pro, WD-3). We obtained spectra between 400nm and 1050nm (Source: halogen lamp, spectroscope: self-made space time, spectral analysis kit) from the peat moss.The obtained spectra show the difference from the previous spectral measurement for the soil in various water content. There are the features, especially, in the wavelength range of ultraviolet (400-450nm) and infrared (530-800nm) as shown in the figure; the more the soil water increases, the lower the reflectance becomes. We have developed a new index using the New deep blue band (433 453nm and NIR band 845 885nm of Landsat 8. The resulting satellite images calculated by our original index appears to reflect the risk of forest fires rather than well-known indices such as Normalized Difference Water Index and Normalized difference Soil Index.In conclusion, we have created a new index that highly reflects to the degree of soil water of a peat soil in Indonesia.

  15. Comparison of inhalation risks : oil- versus gas-fired urban power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levin, L.

    2000-01-01

    The risks due to inhalation of emitted trace substances from natural gas-fired power plants tend to be significantly lower than those from oil- or coal-fired plants. A 1994 study suggested that the median inhalation life-time cancer risk from gas-fired plants was about 4 in one billion. This is an acceptable risk range according to the United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) classification of risks. In the same study, median oil plant risks were 8 in one billion. coal plant median risks ranged from 2 to 3 in one billion depending on the grade of coal being burned. The US EPA classifies risks from 1 to one million to one to 10,000 as being in an acceptable risk range. In some cases, gas plants were shown to exhibit higher inhalation risks than oil plants due to terrain, air circulation patterns, enhanced stack or building downwash or mechanical turbulence. Higher concentrations of very potent trace substances could also result in high inhalation risks. An examination of several power plants in an urban area showed that initial judgements about risk can often be incorrect

  16. IRSN global process for leading a comprehensive fire safety analysis for nuclear installations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ormieres, Yannick; Lacoue, Jocelyne

    2013-01-01

    A fire safety analysis (FSA) is requested to justify the adequacy of fire protection measures set by the operator. A recent document written by IRSN outlines a global process for such a comprehensive fire safety analysis. Thanks to the French nuclear fire safety regulation evolutions, from prescriptive requirements to objective requirements, the proposed fire safety justification process focuses on compliance with performance criteria for fire protection measures. These performance criteria are related to the vulnerability of targets to effects of fire, and not only based upon radiological consequences out side the installation caused by a fire. In his FSA, the operator has to define the safety functions that should continue to ensure its mission even in the case of fire in order to be in compliance with nuclear safety objectives. Then, in order to maintain these safety functions, the operator has to justify the adequacy of fire protection measures, defined according to defence in depth principles. To reach the objective, the analysis process is based on the identification of targets to be protected in order to maintain safety functions, taken into account facility characteristics. These targets include structures, systems, components and personal important to safety. Facility characteristics include, for all operating conditions, potential ignition sources and fire protections systems. One of the key points of the fire analysis is the assessment of possible fire scenarios in the facility. Given the large number of possible fire scenarios, it is then necessary to evaluate 'reference fires' which are the worst case scenarios of all possible fire scenarios and which are used by the operator for the design of fire protection measures. (authors)

  17. Planning for risk-informed/performance-based fire protection at nuclear power plants. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Najafi, B.; Parkinson, W.J.; Lee, J.A.

    1997-12-01

    This document presents a framework for discussing issues and building consensus towards use of fire modeling and risk technology in nuclear power plant fire protection program implementation. The plan describes a three-phase approach: development of core technologies, implementation of methods, and finally, case studies and pilot applications to verify viability of such methods. The core technologies are defined as fire modeling, fire and system tests, use of operational data, and system and risk techniques. The implementation phase addresses the programmatic issues involved in implementing a risk-informed/performance-based approach in an integrated approach with risk/performance measures. The programmatic elements include: (1) a relationship with fire codes and standards development as defined by the ongoing effort of NFPA for development of performance-based standards; (2) the ability for NRC to undertake inspection and enforcement; and (3) the benefit to utilities in terms of cost versus safety. The case studies are intended to demonstrate applicability of single issue resolution while pilot applications are intended to check the applicability of the integrated program as a whole

  18. Adversarial risk analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Banks, David L; Rios Insua, David

    2015-01-01

    Flexible Models to Analyze Opponent Behavior A relatively new area of research, adversarial risk analysis (ARA) informs decision making when there are intelligent opponents and uncertain outcomes. Adversarial Risk Analysis develops methods for allocating defensive or offensive resources against intelligent adversaries. Many examples throughout illustrate the application of the ARA approach to a variety of games and strategic situations. The book shows decision makers how to build Bayesian models for the strategic calculation of their opponents, enabling decision makers to maximize their expected utility or minimize their expected loss. This new approach to risk analysis asserts that analysts should use Bayesian thinking to describe their beliefs about an opponent's goals, resources, optimism, and type of strategic calculation, such as minimax and level-k thinking. Within that framework, analysts then solve the problem from the perspective of the opponent while placing subjective probability distributions on a...

  19. Wildfire disturbance, erosion and sedimentation risks following the Waldo Canyon Fire in Colorado

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flint, K.; Kinoshita, A. M.; Chin, A.; Florsheim, J. L.; Nourbakhshbeidokhti, S.

    2016-12-01

    Wildfire is a landscape-scale disturbance that causes abrupt changes to hydrological responses and sediment flux during subsequent storms. Burning hillslope vegetation during wildfires induces changes to sediment supply and stream flow magnitude. Altered post-fire processes such as channel erosion and sedimentation or flooding enhance downstream hazards that may threaten human populations and physical aquatic habitat over various time scales. Using data from a small drainage basin (Williams Canyon, 4.7 km2) in the Colorado front range burned by the 2012 Waldo Fire as a case study, we investigate post-fire recovery and assess changes in fire-related risks to downstream areas. Our local ground-based precipitation, field measurements, terrestrial Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) scanning together with satellite-based remote sensing data (i.e. Landsat) provide a basis for time series analyses of reach-scale erosion and sedimentation response to rainfall patterns as vegetation patterns change following the wildfire. As a first step in quantifying the likelihood and consequences of specific risk scenarios, we examine changes in the combined probability of storm flows and post-fire erosion and sedimentation as vegetation recovers within the study watershed. We explore possible feedbacks and thresholds related to vegetation-hydrology-sediment interactions following wildfire under changing climate regimes. This information is needed to assist in post-fire management to promote sustainability of wildland fluvial systems.

  20. Wildfires and post-fire erosion risk in a coastal area under severe anthropic pressure associated with the touristic fluxes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canu, Annalisa; Arca, Bachisio; Pellizzaro, Grazia; Valeriano Pintus, Gian; Ferrara, Roberto; Duce, Pierpaolo

    2017-04-01

    In the last decades a rapid and intense development of the tourism industry led to an increasing of anthropic pressure on several coastal areas of Sardinia. This fact not only modified the coastal aesthetics, but has also generated an increase of risk for the environment. This phenomenon affected also the ancient structure of the landscape with a negative impact mainly caused by the following factors: land abandonment, wildfire occurrence, post-fire erosion, urbanization. These regional changes can be analyzed in detail by considering the geo-diachronic dynamics. The main objectives of this work were i) to perform a diachronic analysis of land use and land cover dynamics, ii) to analyse the recent dynamics of wildfires, and iii) to predict the soil erosion risk in relation to land use change occurred between the 1950s and the 2000s. The study was realized in a coastal area located in North-East Sardinia where the geo-historical processes were summarized and organized in a geographic information system that has been employed to examine the landscape variations at three different time steps: 1954, 1977 and 2000. In addition, different scenarios of wildfire propagation were simulated by FlamMap in order to estimate the spatial pattern of fire danger factors in the study area. Afterwards, maps of post-fire soil erosion were produced to identify the temporal and spatial variations of the erosion risk. The results show how the changes in land use and the significant and rapid increase of the residential areas affect the risk of both wildfires and post-fire soil erosion. The study reveals the capabilities of this type of approach and can be used by management agencies and policy makers e in sustainable landscape management planning. This approach can be extended to other regions of the Mediterranean basin characterized by complex interactions among landscape and anthropic factors affecting the environmental risk.

  1. Risk perceptions and behavioral context: U.S. Forest Service fire management professionals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Jonathan G.; Carpenter, Edwin H.; Cortner, Hanna J.; Cleaves, David A.

    1989-01-01

    Fire managers from the U.S. Forest Service were surveyed to determine which decision factors most strongly influenced their fire‐risk decisions. Safety, the resources at risk, public opinion, and the reliability of information were important influences on these decisions. This research allowed direct comparison between fire managers’ perceptions of factor importance and how their fire‐risk decisions changed in response to those factors. These risk decisions were highly responsive to changes in context (an escaped wildfire decision versus a prescribed burning decision) as well as to changing factors. The results demonstrate the utility of using scenarios in risk research and the vital importance of context in studying risk‐taking behavior. Research which attempts to remove risk decisions from their real‐world context may well distort the nature of risk‐taking behavior.

  2. Economic assessment of coal-fired and nuclear power generation in the year 2000 -Equal health hazard risk basis-

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seong, Ki Bong; Lee, Byong Whi

    1989-01-01

    On the basis of equal health hazard risk, economic assessment of nuclear was compared with that of coal for the expansion planning of electric power generation in the year 2000. In comparing health risks, the risk of coal was roughly ten times higher than that of nuclear according to various previous risk assessments of energy system. The zero risk condition can never be achievable. Therefore, only excess relative health risk of coal over nuclear was considered as social cost. The social cost of health risk was estimated by calculation of mortality and morbidity costs. Mortality cost was $250,000 and morbidity cost was $90,000 in the year 2000.(1986US$) Through Cost/Benefit Analysis, the optimal emission standards of coal-fired power generation were predicted. These were obtained at the point of least social cost for power generation. In the year 2000, the optimal emission standard of SO x was analyzed as 165ppm for coal-fired power plants in Korea. From this assessment, economic comparison of nuclear and coal in the year 2000 showed that nuclear would be more economical than coal, whereas uncertainty of future power generation cost of nuclear would be larger than that of coal. (Author)

  3. Managing fire risk during drought: the influence of certification and El Niño on fire-driven forest conversion for oil palm in Southeast Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noojipady, Praveen; Morton, Douglas C.; Schroeder, Wilfrid; Carlson, Kimberly M.; Huang, Chengquan; Gibbs, Holly K.; Burns, David; Walker, Nathalie F.; Prince, Stephen D.

    2017-08-01

    Indonesia and Malaysia have emerged as leading producers of palm oil in the past several decades, expanding production through the conversion of tropical forests to industrial plantations. Efforts to produce sustainable palm oil, including certification by the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO), include guidelines designed to reduce the environmental impact of palm oil production. Fire-driven deforestation is prohibited by law in both countries and a stipulation of RSPO certification, yet the degree of environmental compliance is unclear, especially during El Niño events when drought conditions increase fire risk. Here, we used time series of satellite data to estimate the spatial and temporal patterns of fire-driven deforestation on and around oil palm plantations. In Indonesia, fire-driven deforestation accounted for one-quarter of total forest losses on both certified and noncertified plantations. After the first plantations in Indonesia received RSPO certification in 2009, forest loss and fire-driven deforestation declined on certified plantations but did not stop altogether. Oil palm expansion in Malaysia rarely involved fire; only 5 % of forest loss on certified plantations had coincident active fire detections. Interannual variability in fire detections was strongly influenced by El Niño and the timing of certification. Fire activity during the 2002, 2004, and 2006 El Niño events was similar among oil palm plantations in Indonesia that would later become certified, noncertified plantations, and surrounding areas. However, total fire activity was 75 % and 66 % lower on certified plantations than noncertified plantations during the 2009 and 2015 El Niño events, respectively. The decline in fire activity on certified plantations, including during drought periods, highlights the potential for RSPO certification to safeguard carbon stocks in peatlands and remaining forests in accordance with legislation banning fires. However, aligning certification

  4. Managing fire risk during drought: the influence of certification and El Niño on fire-driven forest conversion for oil palm in Southeast Asia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Noojipady

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Indonesia and Malaysia have emerged as leading producers of palm oil in the past several decades, expanding production through the conversion of tropical forests to industrial plantations. Efforts to produce sustainable palm oil, including certification by the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO, include guidelines designed to reduce the environmental impact of palm oil production. Fire-driven deforestation is prohibited by law in both countries and a stipulation of RSPO certification, yet the degree of environmental compliance is unclear, especially during El Niño events when drought conditions increase fire risk. Here, we used time series of satellite data to estimate the spatial and temporal patterns of fire-driven deforestation on and around oil palm plantations. In Indonesia, fire-driven deforestation accounted for one-quarter of total forest losses on both certified and noncertified plantations. After the first plantations in Indonesia received RSPO certification in 2009, forest loss and fire-driven deforestation declined on certified plantations but did not stop altogether. Oil palm expansion in Malaysia rarely involved fire; only 5 % of forest loss on certified plantations had coincident active fire detections. Interannual variability in fire detections was strongly influenced by El Niño and the timing of certification. Fire activity during the 2002, 2004, and 2006 El Niño events was similar among oil palm plantations in Indonesia that would later become certified, noncertified plantations, and surrounding areas. However, total fire activity was 75 % and 66 % lower on certified plantations than noncertified plantations during the 2009 and 2015 El Niño events, respectively. The decline in fire activity on certified plantations, including during drought periods, highlights the potential for RSPO certification to safeguard carbon stocks in peatlands and remaining forests in accordance with legislation banning fires. However

  5. Fire hazard analysis for the Westinghouse Hanford Company managed low-level mixed waste Trench 31 and 34

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Howard, B.J.

    1995-01-01

    This analysis is to assess comprehensively the risks from fire within the new lined landfills, provided by W-025 and designated Trench 31 and 34 of Burial Ground 218-W-5; they are located in the 200 West area of the Hanford Site, and are designed to receive low-level mixed waste

  6. Forest fire risk assessment-an integrated approach based on multicriteria evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goleiji, Elham; Hosseini, Seyed Mohsen; Khorasani, Nematollah; Monavari, Seyed Masoud

    2017-11-06

    The present study deals with application of the weighted linear combination method for zoning of forest fire risk in Dohezar and Sehezar region of Mazandaran province in northern Iran. In this study, the effective criteria for fires were identified by the Delphi method, and these included ecological and socioeconomic parameters. In this regard, the first step comprised of digital layers; the required data were provided from databases, related centers, and field data collected in the region. Then, the map of criteria was digitized in a geographic information system, and all criteria and indexes were normalized by fuzzy logic. After that, the geographic information system (GIS 10.3) was integrated with the Weighted Linear Combination and the Analytical Network Process, to produce zonation of the forest fire risk map in the Dohezar and Sehezar region. In order to analyze accuracy of the evaluation, the results obtained from the study were compared to records of former fire incidents in the region. This was done using the Kappa coefficient test and a receiver operating characteristic curve. The model showing estimations for forest fire risk explained that the prepared map had accuracy of 90% determined by the Kappa coefficient test and the value of 0.924 by receiver operating characteristic. These results showed that the prepared map had high accuracy and efficacy.

  7. PCB transformer fires: the risk in nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blackmon, K.

    1988-01-01

    It is estimated that 1/2 of the present nuclear power plants operate with PCB-filled transformer equipment. In an attempt to obtain better estimates of clean-up costs in a nuclear power plant under reasonable-loss scenarios, a study was commissioned. This study was a joint venture between Blackmon-Mooring Steamatic Technologies, Inc., (BMS-TECH) and M and M Protection Consultants. This joint study was conducted at a typical pressurized-water reactor plant consisting of two 1000-MW units. Three specific scenarios were selected and analyzed for this typical power plant. These scenarios were: (1) an electrical failure of a transformer in an isolated switch gear room; (2) a transformer exposed to a 55-gallon transient combustion oil fire in the auxiliary building; and (3) a PCB transformer involved in a major turbine lube fire in the turbine building. Based on results of this study, the insurance carriers for this industry implemented an adjustment in their rate structures for nuclear power plants that have PCB equipment

  8. Focus on the studies in support of fire safety analysis. IRSN modelling approach for nuclear facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Espargilliere, Julien; Meyrand, Raphael; Vinot, Thierry [Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire (IRSN), Fontenay-aux-Roses (France)

    2015-12-15

    For a fire safety analysis, in order to comply with nuclear safety goals, a nuclear fuel facility operator has to define the elements important for safety to be maintained, even in the case of a fire. One of the key points of this fire analysis is the assessment of possible fire scenarios in the facility. This paper presents the IRSN method applied to a case study to assess fire scenarios which have the most harmful effects on safety targets. The layout consists in a central room (fire cell) containing three glove boxes with radioactive material and three electrical cabinets. This room is linked to two connecting compartments (the fire cell and these two compartments define the containment cell) and then to two corridors. Each room is equipped with a mechanical ventilation system, and a pressure cascade is established from the corridors to the central room. A fire scenario was studied with fire ignition occurring in an electrical cabinet. This scenario has a set of safety goals (prevention of fire cell and containment device failure, propagation of the fire). This case study was conducted with the IRSN code SYLVIA based on two zones modelling. Safety goals were associated with key parameters and performance criteria to be fulfilled. Modelling assumptions were defined in order to maximize physical effects of the fire. Sensitivity studies were also conducted on key parameters such as oxygen limitation, equivalent-fuel definition. Eventually, a critical analysis of the code models was carried out.

  9. A Revised Historical Fire Regime Analysis in Tunisia (1985–2010 from a Critical Analysis of the National Fire Database and Remote Sensing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chiraz Belhadj-Khedher

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Long-term fire history reconstructions provide fruitful information in the context of global change. Global remotely-sensed burned areas offer a uniform estimate of fire regimes worldwide, but hardly capture small fire events and cover only the last 20 years. Burned areas from national statistics often lack credibility due to discrepancies in fire report protocols between countries, partial data records and uncertain burned area estimates from field observations. However, they constitute a unique and valuable alternative long-term key source of information. We provide here a detailed critical analysis of the fire database in Tunisia, on the southern boundary of the Mediterranean basin and with a contrasted socio-economic environment compared to the more studied European side. We analyzed the fire record database with a quality checking protocol, combined with remote sensing burned area characterization from Landsat images. The high uncertainties in fire numbers could not lead to any conclusion for an accurate trend estimate. The corrected burned area lead to an average yearly burned area of 1799 ha year−1 compared to previous estimates of 1017 ha year−1, leading to a fraction of burnable land affected by fires of 0.19%, on the lowest range of observations in the Mediterranean basin. From this corrected database, we revised the usually assumed burned area decrease in this region, with no significant trend detected over the 1985–2010 period. We conclude on the need for thorough assessment of data quality in fire history reconstruction from national statistics to prevent misleading conclusions, and for an increased credibility, in order to be further used in fire models benchmarking or fire weather analysis. Our results can contribute to the under-represented fire regime analysis on the southern boundary of the Mediterranean basin.

  10. Applying information network analysis to fire-prone landscapes: implications for community resilience

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Derric B. Jacobs

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Resilient communities promote trust, have well-developed networks, and can adapt to change. For rural communities in fire-prone landscapes, current resilience strategies may prove insufficient in light of increasing wildfire risks due to climate change. It is argued that, given the complexity of climate change, adaptations are best addressed at local levels where specific social, cultural, political, and economic conditions are matched with local risks and opportunities. Despite the importance of social networks as key attributes of community resilience, research using social network analysis on coupled human and natural systems is scarce. Furthermore, the extent to which local communities in fire-prone areas understand climate change risks, accept the likelihood of potential changes, and have the capacity to develop collaborative mitigation strategies is underexamined, yet these factors are imperative to community resiliency. We apply a social network framework to examine information networks that affect perceptions of wildfire and climate change in Central Oregon. Data were collected using a mailed questionnaire. Analysis focused on the residents' information networks that are used to gain awareness of governmental activities and measures of community social capital. A two-mode network analysis was used to uncover information exchanges. Results suggest that the general public develops perceptions about climate change based on complex social and cultural systems rather than as patrons of scientific inquiry and understanding. It appears that perceptions about climate change itself may not be the limiting factor in these communities' adaptive capacity, but rather how they perceive local risks. We provide a novel methodological approach in understanding rural community adaptation and resilience in fire-prone landscapes and offer a framework for future studies.

  11. Impact of fires on nuclear safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skvarka, P.; Zmajkovic, I.

    1990-01-01

    Factors which are relevant with respect to fire hazard are summarized based on Revision 1 of IAEA Safety Guide No. 50-SG-D2, ''Fire Protection in Nuclear Power Plants'', of 1990. They include data acquisition, quantification of fire risks, assessment of adequacy of fire protection measures, modification of the fire protection system proposed. According to the above document, fire hazard analysis should define and document those parts of the fire protection system that must be present in order to secure safe operation of the nuclear power plant. (Z.M.). 2 appendices, 4 refs

  12. Preliminary fire hazards analysis for W-211, Initial Tank Retrieval Systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huckfeldt, R.A.

    1995-01-01

    A fire hazards analysis (FHA) was performed for Project W-211, Initial Tank Retrieval System (ITRS), at the Department of Energy (DOE) Hanford site. The objectives of this FHA was to determine (1) the fire hazards that expose the Initial Tank Retrieval System or are inherent in the process, (2) the adequacy of the fire-safety features planned, and (3) the degree of compliance of the project with specific fire safety provisions in DOE orders and related engineering codes and standards. The scope included the construction, the process hazards, building fire protection, and site wide fire protection. The results are presented in terms of the fire hazards present, the potential extent of fire damage, and the impact on employees and public safety. This study evaluated the ITRS with respect to its use at Tank 241-SY-101 only

  13. Study on the Post-Fire Safe-Shutdown Analysis for CANDU NPPs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, In Hwan; Kim, Yun Jung; Park, Mun Hee [KHNP Central Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-10-15

    The purpose of this paper is to study a method of the Post-Fire Safe-Shutdown Analysis in order to apply to CANDU NPPs when one group of the Safety Structures, Systems and Components(SCCs) is failed by Fire. The purpose of Fire Protection is prevention, suppression of the fire and mitigation of the effect on the Nuclear Safety. When fire takes place at the Nuclear Power Plants(NPPs), the reactor should achieve and maintain safe shut-down condition and minimize radioactive material release to an environment. The purpose of the Post-Fire SSA process is an evaluation process during a fire at NPPs. At this study, the process was conceptually adopted for control room complex of CANDU NPPs. The Core Damage Frequency of the Reactor will be evaluated more accurately if the SSA is adopted adequately at a fire.

  14. Evaluating post-fire forest resilience using GIS and multi-criteria analysis: an example from Cape Sounion National Park, Greece.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arianoutsou, Margarita; Koukoulas, Sotirios; Kazanis, Dimitrios

    2011-03-01

    Forest fires are one of the major causes of ecological disturbance in the mediterranean climate ecosystems of the world. Despite the fact that a lot of resources have been invested in fire prevention and suppression, the number of fires occurring in the Mediterranean Basin in the recent decades has continued to markedly increase. The understanding of the relationship between landscape and fire lies, among others, in the identification of the system's post-fire resilience. In our study, ecological and landscape data are integrated with decision-support techniques in a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) framework to evaluate the risk of losing post-fire resilience in Pinus halepensis forests, using Cape Sounion National Park, Central Greece, as a pilot case. The multi-criteria decision support approach has been used to synthesize both bio-indicators (woody cover, pine density, legume cover and relative species richness and annual colonizers) and geo-indicators (fire history, parent material, and slope inclination) in order to rank the landscape components. Judgments related to the significance of each factor were incorporated within the weights coefficients and then integrated into the multicriteria rule to map the risk index. Sensitivity analysis was very critical for assessing the contribution of each factor and the sensitivity to subjective weight judgments to the final output. The results of this study include a final ranking map of the risk of losing resilience, which is very useful in identifying the "risk hotspots", where post-fire management measures should be applied in priority.

  15. Evaluating Post-Fire Forest Resilience Using GIS and Multi-Criteria Analysis: An Example from Cape Sounion National Park, Greece

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arianoutsou, Margarita; Koukoulas, Sotirios; Kazanis, Dimitrios

    2011-03-01

    Forest fires are one of the major causes of ecological disturbance in the mediterranean climate ecosystems of the world. Despite the fact that a lot of resources have been invested in fire prevention and suppression, the number of fires occurring in the Mediterranean Basin in the recent decades has continued to markedly increase. The understanding of the relationship between landscape and fire lies, among others, in the identification of the system's post-fire resilience. In our study, ecological and landscape data are integrated with decision-support techniques in a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) framework to evaluate the risk of losing post-fire resilience in Pinus halepensis forests, using Cape Sounion National Park, Central Greece, as a pilot case. The multi-criteria decision support approach has been used to synthesize both bio-indicators (woody cover, pine density, legume cover and relative species richness and annual colonizers) and geo-indicators (fire history, parent material, and slope inclination) in order to rank the landscape components. Judgments related to the significance of each factor were incorporated within the weights coefficients and then integrated into the multicriteria rule to map the risk index. Sensitivity analysis was very critical for assessing the contribution of each factor and the sensitivity to subjective weight judgments to the final output. The results of this study include a final ranking map of the risk of losing resilience, which is very useful in identifying the "risk hotspots", where post-fire management measures should be applied in priority.

  16. Fire safety engineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, D.N.

    1989-01-01

    The periodic occurrence of large-scale, potentially disastrous industrial accidents involving fire in hazardous environments such as oilwell blowouts, petrochemical explosions and nuclear installations highlights the need for an integrated approach to fire safety engineering. Risk reduction 'by design' and rapid response are of equal importance in the saving of life and property in such situations. This volume of papers covers the subject thoroughly, touching on such topics as hazard analysis, safety design and testing, fire detection and control, and includes studies of fire hazard in the context of environment protection. (author)

  17. Managing Fire Risk During Drought: The Influence of Certification and El Nino on Fire-Driven Forest Conversion for Oil Palm in Southeast Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noojipady, Praveen; Morton, Douglas C.; Schroeder, Wilfrid; Carlson, Kimberly M.; Huang, Chengquan; Gibbs, Holly K.; Burns, David; Walker, Nathalie F.; Prince, Stephen D.

    2017-01-01

    Indonesia and Malaysia have emerged as leading producers of palm oil in the past several decades, expanding production through the conversion of tropical forests to industrial plantations. Efforts to produce "sustainable" palm oil, including certification by the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO), include guidelines designed to reduce the environmental impact of palm oil production. Fire-driven deforestation is prohibited by law in both countries and a stipulation of RSPO certification, yet the degree of environmental compliance isunclear, especially during El Niño events when drought conditions increase fire risk. Here, we used time series of satellite data to estimate the spatial and temporal patterns of fire-driven deforestation on and around oil palm plantations. In Indonesia, fire-driven deforestation accounted for one-quarter of total forest losses on both certified and noncertified plantations. After the first plantations in Indonesia received RSPO certification in 2009,forest loss and fire-driven deforestation declined on certified plantations but did not stop altogether. Oil palm expansion in Malaysia rarely involved fire; only 5 % of forest loss on certified plantations had coincident activefire detections. Interannual variability in fire detections was strongly influenced by El Nino and the timing of certification. Fire activity during the 2002, 2004, and 2006 El Nino events was similar among oil palm plantations in Indonesia that would later become certified, noncertified plantations, and surrounding areas. However, total fire activity was 75% and 66% lower on certified plantations than noncertified plantations during the 2009 and 2015 El Nino events, respectively. The decline in fire activity on certified plantations, including during drought periods, highlights the potential for RSPO certification to safeguard carbon stocks in peatlands and remaining forests in accordance with legislation banning fires. However, aligning certification

  18. Setting priorities for private land conservation in fire-prone landscapes: Are fire risk reduction and biodiversity conservation competing or compatible objectives?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandra D. Syphard

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Although wildfire plays an important role in maintaining biodiversity in many ecosystems, fire management to protect human assets is often carried out by different agencies than those tasked for conserving biodiversity. In fact, fire risk reduction and biodiversity conservation are often viewed as competing objectives. Here we explored the role of management through private land conservation and asked whether we could identify private land acquisition strategies that fulfill the mutual objectives of biodiversity conservation and fire risk reduction, or whether the maximization of one objective comes at a detriment to the other. Using a fixed budget and number of homes slated for development, we simulated 20 years of housing growth under alternative conservation selection strategies, and then projected the mean risk of fires destroying structures and the area and configuration of important habitat types in San Diego County, California, USA. We found clear differences in both fire risk projections and biodiversity impacts based on the way conservation lands are prioritized for selection, but these differences were split between two distinct groupings. If no conservation lands were purchased, or if purchases were prioritized based on cost or likelihood of development, both the projected fire risk and biodiversity impacts were much higher than if conservation lands were purchased in areas with high fire hazard or high species richness. Thus, conserving land focused on either of the two objectives resulted in nearly equivalent mutual benefits for both. These benefits not only resulted from preventing development in sensitive areas, but they were also due to the different housing patterns and arrangements that occurred as development was displaced from those areas. Although biodiversity conflicts may still arise using other fire management strategies, this study shows that mutual objectives can be attained through land-use planning in this region

  19. Setting priorities for private land conservation in fire-prone landscapes: Are fire risk reduction and biodiversity conservation competing or compatible objectives?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Syphard, Alexandra D.; Butsic, Van; Bar-Massada, Avi; Keeley, Jon E.; Tracey, Jeff A.; Fisher, Robert N.

    2016-01-01

    Although wildfire plays an important role in maintaining biodiversity in many ecosystems, fire management to protect human assets is often carried out by different agencies than those tasked for conserving biodiversity. In fact, fire risk reduction and biodiversity conservation are often viewed as competing objectives. Here we explored the role of management through private land conservation and asked whether we could identify private land acquisition strategies that fulfill the mutual objectives of biodiversity conservation and fire risk reduction, or whether the maximization of one objective comes at a detriment to the other. Using a fixed budget and number of homes slated for development, we simulated 20 years of housing growth under alternative conservation selection strategies, and then projected the mean risk of fires destroying structures and the area and configuration of important habitat types in San Diego County, California, USA. We found clear differences in both fire risk projections and biodiversity impacts based on the way conservation lands are prioritized for selection, but these differences were split between two distinct groupings. If no conservation lands were purchased, or if purchases were prioritized based on cost or likelihood of development, both the projected fire risk and biodiversity impacts were much higher than if conservation lands were purchased in areas with high fire hazard or high species richness. Thus, conserving land focused on either of the two objectives resulted in nearly equivalent mutual benefits for both. These benefits not only resulted from preventing development in sensitive areas, but they were also due to the different housing patterns and arrangements that occurred as development was displaced from those areas. Although biodiversity conflicts may still arise using other fire management strategies, this study shows that mutual objectives can be attained through land-use planning in this region. These results likely

  20. Analysis of RHIC beam dump pre-fires

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, W.; Ahrens, L.; Fischer, W.; Hahn, H.; Mi, J.; Sandberg, J.; Tan, Y.

    2011-01-01

    It has been speculated that the beam may cause instability of the RHIC Beam Abort Kickers. In this study, we explore the available data of past beam operations, the device history of key modulator components, and the radiation patterns to examine the correlations. The RHIC beam abort kicker system was designed and built in the 90's. Over last decade, we have made many improvements to bring the RHIC beam abort kicker system to a stable operational state. However, the challenge continues. We present the analysis of the pre-fire, an unrequested discharge of kicker, issues which relates to the RHIC machine safety and operational stability.

  1. Environmental risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lima-e-Silva, Pedro Paulo de

    1996-01-01

    The conventional Risk Analysis (RA) relates usually a certain undesired event frequency with its consequences. Such technique is used nowadays in Brazil to analyze accidents and their consequences strictly under the human approach, valuing loss of human equipment, human structures and human lives, without considering the damage caused to natural resources that keep life possible on Earth. This paradigm was developed primarily because of the Homo sapiens' lack of perception upon the natural web needed to sustain his own life. In reality, the Brazilian professionals responsible today for licensing, auditing and inspecting environmental aspects of human activities face huge difficulties in making technical specifications and procedures leading to acceptable levels of impact, furthermore considering the intrinsic difficulties to define those levels. Therefore, in Brazil the RA technique is a weak tool for licensing for many reasons, and of them are its short scope (only accident considerations) and wrong a paradigm (only human direct damages). A paper from the author about the former was already proposed to the 7th International Conference on Environmetrics, past July'96, USP-SP. This one discusses the extension of the risk analysis concept to take into account environmental consequences, transforming the conventional analysis into a broader methodology named here as Environmental Risk Analysis. (author)

  2. Evaluation of potential severe accidents during low power and shutdown operations at Grand Gulf, Unit 1: Analysis of core damage frequency from internal fire events for Plant Operational State 5 during a refueling outage. Volume 3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lambright, J.; Yakle, J.

    1994-07-01

    This report, Volume 3, presents the details of the analysis of core damage frequency due to fire during shutdown Plant Operational State 5 at the Grand Gulf Nuclear Station. Insights from previous fire analyses (Peach Bottom, Surry, LaSalle) were used to the greatest extent possible in this analysis. The fire analysis was fully integrated utilizing the same event trees and fault trees that were used in the internal events analysis. In assessing shutdown risk due to fire at Grand Gulf, a detailed screening was performed which included the following elements: (a) Computer-aided vital area analysis; (b) Plant inspections; (c) Credit for automatic fire protection systems; (d) Recovery of random failures; (e) Detailed fire propagation modeling. This screening process revealed that all plant areas had a negligible (<1.0E-8 per year) contribution to fire-induced core damage frequency

  3. Simulating forest fuel and fire risk dynamics across landscapes--LANDIS fuel module design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong S. He; Bo Z. Shang; Thomas R. Crow; Eric J. Gustafson; Stephen R. Shifley

    2004-01-01

    Understanding fuel dynamics over large spatial (103-106 ha) and temporal scales (101-103 years) is important in comprehensive wildfire management. We present a modeling approach to simulate fuel and fire risk dynamics as well as impacts of alternative fuel treatments. The...

  4. Assessing values of air quality and visibility at risk from wildland fires.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sue A. Ferguson; Steven J. McKay; David E. Nagel; Trent Piepho; Miriam L. Rorig; Casey Anderson; Lara. Kellogg

    2003-01-01

    To assess values of air quality and visibility at risk from wildland fire in the United States, we generated a 40-year database that includes twice daily values of wind, mixing height, and a ventilation index that is the product of windspeed and mixing height. The database provides the first nationally consistent map of surface wind and ventilation index. In addition,...

  5. Understanding the transmission of wildfire risk on a fire prone landscape - A Case study from Central Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ager, Alan; Barros, Ana; Day, Michelle; Preisler, Haiganoush; Evers, Cody

    2015-04-01

    We develop the idea of risk transmission from large wildfires and apply network analyses to understand its importance within the 3.2 million ha Fire-People-Forest study area in central Oregon, US. Historic wildfires within the study and elsewhere in the western US frequently burn over long distances (e.g., 20-50 km) through highly fragmented landscapes with respect to ownership, fuels, management intensity, population density, and ecological conditions. The collective arrangement of fuel loadings in concert with weather and suppression efforts ultimately determines containment and the resulting fire perimeter. While spatial interactions among land parcels in terms of fire spread and intensity have been frequently noted by fire managers, quantifying risk and exposure transmission is not well understood. In this paper we used simulation modeling to quantify wildfire transmission and built a transmission network among and within land owners and communities within the study area. The results suggested that 84% of the predicted area burned within the 25 communities in the study area was from simulated fires that ignited on federal lands. The wildland urban interface surrounding the communities was predicted to burn at a rate of 2 % per year, with 57% of the area burned from fires ignited on federal lands. The node degree for communities indicated that simulated fires originated on about 6 different landowners. Network analyses in general revealed independent variation in transmitted fire among landowners in terms of both node degree (diversity of landowners exchanging fire) and transmitted fire, indicating that both the spatial grain of land ownership and wildfire topology contribute to transmission among land parcels. We discuss how network analyses of wildfire transmission can inform fire management goals for creating fire adapted communities, conserving biodiversity, and resolving competing demands for fire-prone ecosystem services. We also discuss how biophysical

  6. Earth, Wind, and Fire: Managing Risk in Today's Schools Part 1--Fire!

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weeks, Richard

    2010-01-01

    If one word can characterize what may be troubling about risk management in today's schools, it is "complacency." Complacency is a negative behavior that could entrap people into letting their guard down. In "The School Business Administrator," authors Kenneth Stevenson and Don Tharpe write: "A successful school business administrator has a…

  7. A spatio-temporal analysis of fires in South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sheldon Strydom

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The prevalence and history of fires in Africa has led to the continent being named "the fire continent". Fires are common on the continent and lead to a high number of annual fire disasters which result in many human fatalities and considerable financial loss. Increased population growth and concentrated settlement planning increase the probability of fire disasters and the associated loss of human life and financial loss when disasters occur. In order to better understand the spatial and temporal variations and characteristics of fires in South Africa, an 11-year data set of MODIS-derived Active Fire Hotspots was analysed using an open source geographic information system. The study included the mapping of national fire frequency over the 11-year period. Results indicate that the highest fire frequency occurred in the northeastern regions of South Africa, in particular the mountainous regions of KwaZulu-Natal and Mpumalanga, and in the Western Cape. Increasing trends in provincial fire frequency were observed in eight of the nine provinces of South Africa, with Mpumalanga the only province for which a decrease in annual fire frequency was observed. Temporally, fires were observed in all months for all provinces, although distinct fire seasons were observed and were largely driven by rainfall seasons. The southwestern regions of South Africa (winter-rainfall regions experienced higher fire frequencies during the summer months and the rest of the country (summer-rainfall regions during the winter months. Certain regions those which experienced bimodal rainfall seasons did not display distinct fire seasons because of the complex wet and dry seasons. Investigation into the likely effects of climate change on South African fire frequency revealed that increased air temperatures and events such as La Niña have a marked effect on fire activity.

  8. Risk analysis and reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uppuluri, V.R.R.

    1979-01-01

    Mathematical foundations of risk analysis are addressed. The importance of having the same probability space in order to compare different experiments is pointed out. Then the following topics are discussed: consequences as random variables with infinite expectations; the phenomenon of rare events; series-parallel systems and different kinds of randomness that could be imposed on such systems; and the problem of consensus of estimates of expert opinion

  9. Uncertainty analysis for parameters of CFAST in the main control room fire scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Wanhong; Guo, Yun; Peng, Changhong [Univ. of Science and Technology of China No. 96, Anhui (China). School of Nuclear Science and Technology

    2017-07-15

    The fire accident is one of important initial events in the nuclear power plant. Moreover, the fire development process is extremely difficult and complex to predict accurately. As a result, the plant internal fire accidents have become one of the most realistic threat on the safety of the nuclear power plants. The main control room contains all the control and monitoring equipment that operators need. Once it is on fire, hostile environments would greatly impact on the safety of human operations. Therefore, fire probability safety analysis on the main control room has become a significant task. By using CFAST and Monte Carlo sampling method as a tool for fire modeling to simulate main control room on fire, we can examine uncertainty analysis for the important parameters of CFAST.

  10. A comparative analysis of risk and quality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lynette, Jennifer Elyse

    2017-01-01

    Within the field of emergency management and fire response, risk and quality are conceptualized to some degree in every response effort. Quality is viewed as a relatively new concept within the field of emergency management and fire response. Whereas, within this same field the concept of risk is....... This understanding can serve to facilitate more informed and effective decision making that incorporates both risk and quality before, during, and after emergency events....... independently, decision making and judgement processes have the potential to be positively impacted by furthering research and developing a deeper understanding of these constructs. By understanding risk management principles and combining that with a quality systems approach, decision making can be improved......Within the field of emergency management and fire response, risk and quality are conceptualized to some degree in every response effort. Quality is viewed as a relatively new concept within the field of emergency management and fire response. Whereas, within this same field the concept of risk...

  11. Mapping Fire Severity Using Imaging Spectroscopy and Kernel Based Image Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prasad, S.; Cui, M.; Zhang, Y.; Veraverbeke, S.

    2014-12-01

    Improved spatial representation of within-burn heterogeneity after wildfires is paramount to effective land management decisions and more accurate fire emissions estimates. In this work, we demonstrate feasibility and efficacy of airborne imaging spectroscopy (hyperspectral imagery) for quantifying wildfire burn severity, using kernel based image analysis techniques. Two different airborne hyperspectral datasets, acquired over the 2011 Canyon and 2013 Rim fire in California using the Airborne Visible InfraRed Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) sensor, were used in this study. The Rim Fire, covering parts of the Yosemite National Park started on August 17, 2013, and was the third largest fire in California's history. Canyon Fire occurred in the Tehachapi mountains, and started on September 4, 2011. In addition to post-fire data for both fires, half of the Rim fire was also covered with pre-fire images. Fire severity was measured in the field using Geo Composite Burn Index (GeoCBI). The field data was utilized to train and validate our models, wherein the trained models, in conjunction with imaging spectroscopy data were used for GeoCBI estimation wide geographical regions. This work presents an approach for using remotely sensed imagery combined with GeoCBI field data to map fire scars based on a non-linear (kernel based) epsilon-Support Vector Regression (e-SVR), which was used to learn the relationship between spectra and GeoCBI in a kernel-induced feature space. Classification of healthy vegetation versus fire-affected areas based on morphological multi-attribute profiles was also studied. The availability of pre- and post-fire imaging spectroscopy data over the Rim Fire provided a unique opportunity to evaluate the performance of bi-temporal imaging spectroscopy for assessing post-fire effects. This type of data is currently constrained because of limited airborne acquisitions before a fire, but will become widespread with future spaceborne sensors such as those on

  12. Optimization of investment economic in PCI using the methodology of benefits design in analysis of the spread of fires with FDS (Fire Dynamics Simulator) in areas of nuclear fire; Optimizacion de la inversion economica en PCI mediante la metodologia de diseo prestaional en el analisis de la propagacion de incendios con FDS (Fire Dynnamics Simulator) en areas de fuego de centrales nucleares

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salellas, J.

    2015-07-01

    Fire simulation analysis allows knowing the evolution and spread fire in areas of interest within a NPP such as control room, cable room and multi zone comportment among others. fires are a main concern regarding safety analysis of NPP. IDOM has the capability to carry out fire simulations, taken in to account smoke control, fire spread, toxicity levels, ventilation and all physical phenomena. As a result, appropriate fire protection measures can be assessed in each scenario. CFD tools applied to fire simulations can determine with higher resolution all damages caused during the fire. Furthermore, such tools can reduce costs due to a lower impact of design modifications. (Author)

  13. Fire data analysis and feature reduction using computational intelligence methods

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bahrepour, M.; van der Zwaag, B.J.; Meratnia, Nirvana; Havinga, Paul J.M.; Phillips-Wren, G.; Jain, L.C.; Nakamatsu, K.

    2010-01-01

    Fire is basically the fast oxidation of a substance that produces gases and chemical productions. These chemical productions can be read by sensors to yield an insight about type and place of the fire. However, as fires may occur in indoor or outdoor areas, the type of gases and therefore sensor

  14. Effects of Fire Suppression Agents and Weathering in the Analysis of Fire Debris by HS-MS eNose

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barbara Falatová

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available In arson attacks the detection of ignitable liquid residues (ILRs at fire scenes provides key evidence since ignitable liquids, such as gasoline, are commonly used to initiate the fire. In most forensic laboratories gas chromatography-mass spectrometry is employed for the analysis of ILRs. When a fire occurs, suppression agents are used to extinguish the fire and, before the scene is investigated, the samples at the scene are subjected to a variety of processes such as weathering, which can significantly modify the chemical composition and thus lead to erroneous conclusions. In order to avoid this possibility, the application of chemometric tools that help the analyst to extract useful information from data is very advantageous. The study described here concerned the application of a headspace-mass spectrometry electronic nose (HS-MS eNose combined with chemometric tools to determine the presence/absence of gasoline in weathered fire debris samples. The effect of applying two suppression agents (Cafoam Aquafoam AF-6 and Pyro-chem PK-80 Powder and delays in the sampling time (from 0 to 48 h were studied. It was found that, although the suppression systems affect the mass spectra, the HS-MS eNose in combination with suitable pattern recognition chemometric tools, such as linear discriminant analysis, is able to identify the presence of gasoline in any of the studied situations (100% correct classification.

  15. Using Probability of Exceedance to Compare the Resource Risk of Renewable and Gas-Fired Generation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bolinger, Mark [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2017-08-01

    Of the myriad risks surrounding long-term investments in power plants, resource risk is one of the most difficult to mitigate, and is also perhaps the risk that most-clearly distinguishes renewable generation from natural gas-fired generation. For renewable generators like wind and solar projects, resource risk manifests as a quantity risk—i.e., the risk that the quantity of wind and insolation will be less than expected.i For gas-fired generators (i.e., a combined-cycle gas turbine or “CCGT”), resource risk manifests primarily as a price risk—i.e., the risk that natural gas will cost more than expected. Most often, resource risk—and natural gas price risk in particular—falls disproportionately on utility ratepayers, who are typically not well-equipped to manage this risk. As such, it is incumbent upon utilities, regulators, and policymakers to ensure that resource risk is taken into consideration when making or approving resource decisions, or enacting policies that influence the development of the electricity sector more broadly.

  16. Risk of post-fire metal mobilization into surface water resources: A review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abraham, Joji; Dowling, Kim; Florentine, Singarayer

    2017-12-01

    One of the significant economic benefits to communities around the world of having pristine forest catchments is the supply of substantial quantities of high quality potable water. This supports a saving of around US$ 4.1 trillion per year globally by limiting the cost of expensive drinking water treatments and provision of unnecessary infrastructure. Even low levels of contaminants specifically organics and metals in catchments when in a mobile state can reduce these economic benefits by seriously affecting the water quality. Contamination and contaminant mobility can occur through natural and anthropogenic activities including forest fires. Moderate to high intensity forest fires are able to alter soil properties and release sequestered metals from sediments, soil organic matter and fragments of vegetation. In addition, the increase in post-fire erosion rate by rainfall runoff and strong winds facilitates the rapid transport of these metals downslope and downstream. The subsequent metal deposition in distal soil and water bodies can influence surface water quality with potential impacts to the larger ecosystems inclusive of negative effects on humans. This is of substantial concern as 4 billion hectares of forest catchments provide high quality water to global communities. Redressing this problem requires quantification of the potential effects on water resources and instituting rigorous fire and environmental management plans to mitigate deleterious effects on catchment areas. This paper is a review of the current state of the art literature dealing with the risk of post-fire mobilization of the metals into surface water resources. It is intended to inform discussion on the preparation of suitable management plans and policies during and after fire events in order to maintain potable water quality in a cost-effective manner. In these times of climate fluctuation and increased incidence of fires, the need for development of new policies and management frameworks

  17. Mare Risk Analysis monitor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fuente Prieto, I.; Alonso, P.; Carretero Fernandino, J. A.

    2000-01-01

    The Nuclear Safety Council's requirement that Spanish power plants comply with the requirements of the Maintenance Rule associated with plant risk assessment during power operation, arising from the partial unavailability of systems due to the maintenance activities, has led to need for additional tools to facilitate compliance with said requirements. While the impact on risk produced by individual equipment unavailabilities can easily be evaluated, either qualitatively or quantitatively, the process becomes more complicated when un programmed unavailabilities simultaneously occur in various systems, making it necessary to evaluate their functional impact. It is especially complex in the case of support systems that can affect the functionality of multiple systems. In view of the above, a computer application has been developed that is capable of providing the operator with quick answers based on the specific plant model in order to allow fast risk assessment using the information compiled as part of the Probabilistic Safety Analysis. The paper describes the most important characteristics of this application and the basic design requirements of the MARE Risk Monitor. (Author)

  18. Methods for Risk Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alverbro, Karin

    2010-01-01

    Many decision-making situations today affect humans and the environment. In practice, many such decisions are made without an overall view and prioritise one or other of the two areas. Now and then these two areas of regulation come into conflict, e.g. the best alternative as regards environmental considerations is not always the best from a human safety perspective and vice versa. This report was prepared within a major project with the aim of developing a framework in which both the environmental aspects and the human safety aspects are integrated, and decisions can be made taking both fields into consideration. The safety risks have to be analysed in order to be successfully avoided and one way of doing this is to use different kinds of risk analysis methods. There is an abundance of existing methods to choose from and new methods are constantly being developed. This report describes some of the risk analysis methods currently available for analysing safety and examines the relationships between them. The focus here is mainly on human safety aspects

  19. POTENTIAL HEALTH RISK REDUCTION ARISING FROM REDUCED MERCURY EMISSIONS FROM COAL FIRED POWER PLANTS.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sullivan, T. M.; Lipfert, F. W.; Morris, S. C.; Moskowitz, P. D.

    2001-09-01

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has announced plans to regulate mercury (Hg) emissions from coal-fired power plants. EPA has not prepared a quantitative assessment of the reduction in risk that could be achieved through reduction in coal plant emissions of Hg. To address this issue, Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) with support from the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Fossil Energy (DOE FE) prepared a quantitative assessment of the reduction in human health risk that could be achieved through reduction in coal plant emissions of Hg. The primary pathway for Hg exposure is through consumption of fish. The most susceptible population to Hg exposure is the fetus. Therefore the risk assessment focused on consumption of fish by women of child-bearing age. Dose response factors were generated from studies on loss of cognitive abilities (language skills, motor skills, etc.) by young children whose mothers consumed large amounts of fish with high Hg levels. Population risks were estimated for the general population in three regions of the country, (the Midwest, Northeast, and Southeast) that were identified by EPA as being heavily impacted by coal emissions. Three scenarios for reducing Hg emissions from coal plants were considered: (1) A base case using current conditions; (2) A 50% reduction; and, (3) A 90% reduction. These reductions in emissions were assumed to translate linearly into a reduction in fish Hg levels of 8.6% and 15.5%, respectively. Population risk estimates were also calculated for two subsistence fisher populations. These groups of people consume substantially more fish than the general public and, depending on location, the fish may contain higher Hg levels than average. Risk estimates for these groups were calculated for the three Hg levels used for the general population analyses. Analysis shows that the general population risks for exposure of the fetus to Hg are small. Estimated risks under current conditions (i.e., no

  20. Economic aspects of ecological risk due to nuclear and coal-fired electricity production (general comparison, related to the USSR)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Novikov, V.; Wahlstroem, B.; Demin, V.; Lebedev, O.; Ignatiyev, V.

    1991-05-01

    The content of this paper is reflected in the chapter headings: (1) Introduction (2) Environmental problems relating to the coal-fired power plants (3) Costs of environmental protection for coal-fired power plants (4) Comparison of economic efficiency of nuclear and coal-fired power plants (5) Cost of environmental protection for normal operation of a nuclear power plant and its fuel facilities (6) Accidental risk from off-reactor nuclear fuel cycle facilities (7) Conclusion. (Quittner)

  1. Wildland fire management. Volume 1: Prevention methods and analysis. [systems engineering approach to California fire problems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weissenberger, S. (Editor)

    1973-01-01

    A systems engineering approach is reported for the problem of reducing the number and severity of California's wildlife fires. Prevention methodologies are reviewed and cost benefit models are developed for making preignition decisions.

  2. Trend analysis of fire events at nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shimada, Hiroki

    2007-01-01

    We performed trend analyses to compare fire events occurring overseas (1995-2005) and in Japan (1966-2006). We decided to do this after extracting data on incidents (storms, heavy rain, tsunamis, fires, etc.) occurring at overseas nuclear power plants from the Events Occurred at Overseas Nuclear Power Plants recorded in the Nuclear Information Database at the Institute of Nuclear Safety System (INSS) and finding that fires were the most common of the incidents. Analyses compared the number of fires occurring domestically and overseas and analyzed their causes and the effect of the fires on the power plants. As a result, we found that electrical fires caused by such things as current overheating and electric arcing, account for over one half of the domestic and overseas incidents of fire, which indicates that maintenance management of electric facilities is the most important aspect of fire prevention. Also, roughly the same number of operational fires occurred at domestic and overseas plants, judging from the figures for annual occurrences per unit. However, the overall number of fires per unit at domestic facilities is one fourth that of overseas facilities. We surmise that, while management of operations that utilizes fire is comparable for overseas and domestic plants, this disparity results from differences in the way maintenance is carried out at facilities. (author)

  3. Carbon Dioxide as a Fire Suppressant: Examining the Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Under the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has the statutory authority to set phase-out dates for ozone-depleting substances (ODS) and to evaluate potential risks posed by proposed ODS substitutes.

  4. Fire Risk Assessment of Adaptive Re-Use of Historic Shop Houses for Sleeping Accommodations in Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mydin M.A.O.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Heritage buildings were generally constructed without regard for fire risks or the requirements for fire protection, as are obligatory in new constructions. When a heritage building undergoes a change to its original function, improvements to the building’s fire safety are necessary to meet the needs of possible increases in occupancy loads and to account for fire risks related to the new usage. This research focuses on fire safety risks, fire protection and safety systems as well as the rules and regulations that an adaptive reuse heritage shop house is bound to when transitioning to a sleeping accommodation, which, in this case, means becoming a hotel. In this research, six heritage shop houses were chosen as case studies. The objectives of this research were to evaluate current fire emergency plans as well as to identify and assess possible fire hazards created by adaptive reuse of heritage shop houses to sleeping accommodations in Penang through a series of observations and interviews. The results of the research show that most of the buildings were provided with inadequate fire safety systems.

  5. Fire and the endangered Indiana bat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthew B. Dickinson; Michael J. Lacki; Daniel R. Cox

    2009-01-01

    Fire and Indiana bats (Myotis sodalis) have coexisted for millennia in the central hardwoods region, yet past declines in populations of this endangered species, and the imperative of fire use in oak silviculture and ecosystem conservation, call for an analysis of both the risks and opportunities associated with using fires on landscapes in...

  6. Analysis of Architectural Building Design Influences on Fire Spread in Densely Urban Settlement using Cellular Automata

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tambunan, L.; Salamah, H.; Asriana, N.

    2017-03-01

    This study aims to determine the influence of architectural design on the risk of fire spread in densely urban settlement area. Cellular Automata (CA) is used to analyse the fire spread pattern, speed, and the extent of damage. Four cells represent buildings, streets, and fields characteristic in the simulated area, as well as their flammability level and fire spread capabilities. Two fire scenarios are used to model the spread of fire: (1) fire origin in a building with concrete and wood material majority, and (2) fire origin in building with wood material majority. Building shape, building distance, road width, and total area of wall openings are considered constant, while wind is ignored. The result shows that fire spread faster in the building area with wood majority than with concrete majority. Significant amount of combustible building material, absence of distance between buildings, narrow streets and limited fields are factors which influence fire spread speed and pattern as well as extent of damage when fire occurs in the densely urban settlement area.

  7. How well does the Post-fire Erosion Risk Management Tool (ERMiT) really work?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robichaud, Peter; Elliot, William; Lewis, Sarah; Miller, Mary Ellen

    2016-04-01

    The decision of where, when, and how to apply the most effective postfire erosion mitigation treatments requires land managers to assess the risk of damaging runoff and erosion events occurring after a fire. The Erosion Risk Management Tool (ERMiT) was developed to assist post fire assessment teams identify high erosion risk areas and effectiveness of various mitigation treatments to reduce that risk. ERMiT is a web-based application that uses the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) technology to estimate erosion, in probabilistic terms, on burned and recovering forest, range, and chaparral lands with and without the application of mitigation treatments. User inputs are processed by ERMiT to combine rain event variability with spatial and temporal variabilities of hillslope burn severity and soil properties which are then used as WEPP inputs. Since 2007, the model has been used in making hundreds of land management decisions in the US and elsewhere. We use eight published field study sites in the Western US to compare ERMiT predictions to observed hillslope erosion rates. Most sites experience only a few rainfall events that produced runoff and sediment except for a California site with a Mediterranean climate. When hillslope erosion occurred, significant correlations occurred between the observed hillslope erosion and those predicted by ERMiT. Significant correlation occurred for most mitigation treatments as well as the five recovery years. These model validation results suggest reasonable estimates of probabilistic post-fire hillslope sediment delivery when compared to observation.

  8. Analysis of accelerants and fire debris using aroma detection technology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barshick, S.A.

    1997-01-17

    The purpose of this work was to investigate the utility of electronic aroma detection technologies for the detection and identification of accelerant residues in suspected arson debris. Through the analysis of known accelerant residues, a trained neural network was developed for classifying suspected arson samples. Three unknown fire debris samples were classified using this neural network. The item corresponding to diesel fuel was correctly identified every time. For the other two items, wide variations in sample concentration and excessive water content, producing high sample humidities, were shown to influence the sensor response. Sorbent sampling prior to aroma detection was demonstrated to reduce these problems and to allow proper neural network classification of the remaining items corresponding to kerosene and gasoline.

  9. Metallurgical Analysis of Cracks Formed on Coal Fired Boiler Tube

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kishor, Rajat; Kyada, Tushal; Goyal, Rajesh K.; Kathayat, T. S.

    2015-02-01

    Metallurgical failure analysis was carried out for cracks observed on the outer surface of a boiler tube made of ASME SA 210 GR A1 grade steel. The cracks on the surface of the tube were observed after 6 months from the installation in service. A careful visual inspection, chemical analysis, hardness measurement, detailed microstructural analysis using optical and scanning electron microscopy coupled with energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy were carried out to ascertain the cause for failure. Visual inspection of the failed tube revealed the presence of oxide scales and ash deposits on the surface of the tube exposed to fire. Many cracks extending longitudinally were observed on the surface of the tube. Bulging of the tube was also observed. The results of chemical analysis, hardness values and optical micrographs did not exhibit any abnormality at the region of failure. However, detailed SEM with EDS analysis confirmed the presence of various oxide scales. These scales initiated corrosion at both the inner and outer surfaces of the tube. In addition, excessive hoop stress also developed at the region of failure. It is concluded that the failure of the boiler tube took place owing to the combined effect of the corrosion caused by the oxide scales as well as the excessive hoop stress.

  10. Range expansion of invasive shrubs: implication for crown fire risk in forestlands of the southern USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Hsiao-Hsuan; Wonkka, Carissa L; Grant, William E; Rogers, William E

    2016-01-01

    Non-native plant invasions and changing management activities have dramatically altered the structure and composition of forests worldwide. Invasive shrubs and fire suppression have led to increased densification and biomass accumulation in forest ecosystems of the southeastern USA. Notably, Chinese and European privets are rapid growing, shade-tolerant shrubs which number among the most aggressive invasive species in these forests. Privet encroachment has caused losses of native diversity, alteration of ecosystem processes and changes in community structure. The latter has become manifest through decreases in fine herbaceous fuels concurrent with increases in coarse woody fuels in forest understoreys. These alterations in fuel structure will potentially lead to less frequent, but more severe forest fires, which threaten important forest resources during extreme weather conditions. Drawing on extensive data sets compiled by the US Forest Service, we integrated statistical forecasting and analytical techniques within a spatially explicit, agent-based, simulation framework to predict potential range expansion of Chinese and European privet (Ligustrum sinenseandL. vulgare) and the associated increase in crown fire risk over the next two decades in forestlands of Mississippi and Alabama. Our results indicate that probability of invasion is positively associated with elevation, adjacency (within 300 m) to water bodies, mean daily maximum temperature, site productivity and private land ownership, and is negatively associated with slope, stand age, artificial regeneration, distance to the nearest road and fire disturbance. Our projections suggest the total area invaded will increase from 1.36 to ≈31.39% of all forestlands in Mississippi and Alabama (≈7 million hectares) and the annual frequency of crown fires in these forestlands will approximately double within the next two decades. Such time series projections of annual range expansions and crown fire frequency

  11. Probabilistic risk analysis and terrorism risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ezell, Barry Charles; Bennett, Steven P; von Winterfeldt, Detlof; Sokolowski, John; Collins, Andrew J

    2010-04-01

    Since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and the subsequent establishment of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), considerable efforts have been made to estimate the risks of terrorism and the cost effectiveness of security policies to reduce these risks. DHS, industry, and the academic risk analysis communities have all invested heavily in the development of tools and approaches that can assist decisionmakers in effectively allocating limited resources across the vast array of potential investments that could mitigate risks from terrorism and other threats to the homeland. Decisionmakers demand models, analyses, and decision support that are useful for this task and based on the state of the art. Since terrorism risk analysis is new, no single method is likely to meet this challenge. In this article we explore a number of existing and potential approaches for terrorism risk analysis, focusing particularly on recent discussions regarding the applicability of probabilistic and decision analytic approaches to bioterrorism risks and the Bioterrorism Risk Assessment methodology used by the DHS and criticized by the National Academies and others.

  12. The Safety Analysis of Shipborne Ammunition in Fire Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Junpeng; Wang, Xudong; Yue, Pengfei

    2017-12-01

    The safety of Ammunition has always been the focus of national military science and technology issues. And fire is one of the major safety threats to the ship’s ammunition storage environment, In this paper, Mk-82 shipborne aviation bomb has been taken as the study object, simulated the whole process of fire by using the FDS (Fire Detection System) software. According to the simulation results of FDS, ANSYS software was used to simulate the temperature field of Mk-82 carrier-based aviation bomb under fire environment, and the safety of aviation bomb in fire environment was analyzed. The result shows that the aviation bombs under the fire environment can occur the combustion or explosion after 70s constant cook-off, and it was a huge threat to the ship security.

  13. The analysis of a complex fire event using multispaceborne observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrei Simona

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available This study documents a complex fire event that occurred on October 2016, in Middle East belligerent area. Two fire outbreaks were detected by different spacecraft monitoring instruments on board of TERRA, CALIPSO and AURA Earth Observation missions. Link with local weather conditions was examined using ERA Interim Reanalysis and CAMS datasets. The detection of the event by multiple sensors enabled a detailed characterization of fires and the comparison with different observational data.

  14. The analysis of a complex fire event using multispaceborne observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrei, Simona; Carstea, Emil; Marmureanu, Luminita; Ene, Dragos; Binietoglou, Ioannis; Nicolae, Doina; Konsta, Dimitra; Amiridis, Vassilis; Proestakis, Emmanouil

    2018-04-01

    This study documents a complex fire event that occurred on October 2016, in Middle East belligerent area. Two fire outbreaks were detected by different spacecraft monitoring instruments on board of TERRA, CALIPSO and AURA Earth Observation missions. Link with local weather conditions was examined using ERA Interim Reanalysis and CAMS datasets. The detection of the event by multiple sensors enabled a detailed characterization of fires and the comparison with different observational data.

  15. A new technique for fire risk estimation in the wildland urban interface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dasgupta, S.; Qu, J. J.; Hao, X.

    A novel technique based on the physical variable of pre-ignition energy is proposed for assessing fire risk in the Grassland-Urban-Interface The physical basis lends meaning a site and season independent applicability possibilities for computing spread rates and ignition probabilities features contemporary fire risk indices usually lack The method requires estimates of grass moisture content and temperature A constrained radiative-transfer inversion scheme on MODIS NIR-SWIR reflectances which reduces solution ambiguity is used for grass moisture retrieval while MODIS land surface temperature emissivity products are used for retrieving grass temperature Subpixel urban contamination of the MODIS reflective and thermal signals over a Grassland-Urban-Interface pixel is corrected using periodic estimates of urban influence from high spatial resolution ASTER

  16. Hyperbaric and hypobaric chamber fires: a 73-year analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheffield, P J; Desautels, D A

    1997-09-01

    Fire can be catastrophic in the confined space of a hyperbaric chamber. From 1923 to 1996, 77 human fatalities occurred in 35 hyperbaric chamber fires, three human fatalities in a pressurized Apollo Command Module, and two human fatalities in three hypobaric chamber fires reported in Asia, Europe, and North America. Two fires occurred in diving bells, eight occurred in recompression (or decompression) chambers, and 25 occurred in clinical hyperbaric chambers. No fire fatalities were reported in the clinical hyperbaric chambers of North America. Chamber fires before 1980 were principally caused by electrical ignition. Since 1980, chamber fires have been primarily caused by prohibited sources of ignition that an occupant carried inside the chamber. Each fatal chamber fire has occurred in an enriched oxygen atmosphere (> 28% oxygen) and in the presence of abundant burnable material. Chambers pressurized with air (Hyperbaric Medical Society's Chamber Experience and Mishap Database. This epidemiologic review focuses on information learned from critical analyses of chamber fires and how it can be applied to safe operation of hypobaric and hyperbaric chambers.

  17. Soil surface changes increase runoff and erosion risk after a low–moderate severity fire

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stoof, C.R.; Ferreira, A.J.D.; Mol, W.; Berg, van den J.; Kort, De A.; Drooger, S.; Slingerland, E.C.; Mansholt, A.U.; Ritsema, C.J.

    2015-01-01

    Post-fire land degradation is to a large degree determined by what happens to soil properties and ground cover during and after the fire. To study fire impact in relation to fire intensity and post-fire soil exposure, a 9-ha Portuguese shrubland catchmentwas burned by experimental fire in the 2008/9

  18. Evaluation of fire probabilistic safety assessment for a PWR plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, C.H.; Lin, T.J.; Kao, T.M.

    2001-01-01

    The internal fire analysis of the level 1 power operation probability safety assessment (PSA) for Maanshan (PWR) Nuclear Power Plant (MNPP) was updated. The fire analysis adopted a scenario-based PSA approach to systematically evaluate fire and smoke hazards and their associated risk impact to MNPP. The result shows that the core damage frequency (CDF) due to fire is about six times lower than the previous one analyzed by the Atomic Energy Council (AEC), Republic of China in 1987. The plant model was modified to reflect the impact of human events and recovery actions during fire. Many tabulated EXCEL spread-sheets were used for evaluation of the fire risk. The fire-induced CDF for MNPP is found to be 2.1 E-6 per year in this study. The relative results of the fire analysis will provide the bases for further risk-informed fire protection evaluation in the near future. (author)

  19. Statistical aspects of carbon fiber risk assessment modeling. [fire accidents involving aircraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gross, D.; Miller, D. R.; Soland, R. M.

    1980-01-01

    The probabilistic and statistical aspects of the carbon fiber risk assessment modeling of fire accidents involving commercial aircraft are examined. Three major sources of uncertainty in the modeling effort are identified. These are: (1) imprecise knowledge in establishing the model; (2) parameter estimation; and (3)Monte Carlo sampling error. All three sources of uncertainty are treated and statistical procedures are utilized and/or developed to control them wherever possible.

  20. Application Study of Fire Severity Classification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, In Hwan; Kim, Hyeong Taek; Jee, Moon Hak; Kim, Yun Jung

    2013-01-01

    This paper introduces the Fire Incidents Severity Classification Method for Korean NPPs that may be derived directly from the data fields and feasibility study for domestic uses. FEDB was characterized in more detail and assessed based on the significance of fire incidents in the updated database and five fire severity categories were defined. The logical approach to determine the fire severity starts from the most severe characteristics, namely challenging fires, and continues to define the less challenging and undetermined categories in progress. If the FEDB is utilized for Korean NPPs, the ways of Fire Severity Classification suggested in 2.4 above can be utilized for the quantitative fire risk analysis in future. The Fire Events Database (FEDB) is the primary source of fire data which are used for fire frequency in Fire PSA (Probabilistic Safety Assessment). The purpose of its development is to calculate the quantitative fire frequency at the comprehensive and consolidated source derived from the fire incident information available for Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs). Recently, the Fire Events Database (FEDB) was updated by Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) and Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) in U. S. The FEDB is intended to update the fire event history up to 2009. A significant enhancement to it is the reorganization and refinement of the database structure and data fields. It has been expanded and improved data fields, coding consistency, incident detail, data review fields, and reference data source traceability. It has been designed to better support several Fire PRA uses as well

  1. Governance of Land Use Planning to Reduce Fire Risk to Homes Mediterranean France and California

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susan D. Kocher

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Wildfire is a natural part of forested Mediterranean systems. As humans continue to live and build housing in these areas, wildfire is a constant threat to homes and lives. The goal of this paper is to describe aspects of land-use planning that are used to reduce wildfire risk in institutionally divergent regions; southern France and California. By reviewing relevant legislation and planning documents and conducting in person interviews with fire and planning professionals, we identify the institutions which participate in land use planning to reduce fire risk and the key laws and regulations that guide planning decisions. Our results indicate that France has a more centralized system for planning for fire, with national level entities heavily involved in local land use planning. California, on the other hand sees almost no federal oversite, and, while state law requires local plans to include wildfire risk, most fine grain decisions are left to local planners and decision makers. In both regions, however, we see a reliance on technical support provided from outside local jurisdictions. Increased coordination between local, regional, and national governments could improve land use planning in both locations.

  2. Forest Fires in the Metropolitan District of Quito (DMQ: Risk knowledge and public intervention

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jairo Estacio

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Every summer, the Metropolitan District of Quito (MDQ is subject to the recurrence of forest fires with different consequences in terms of loss of protected areas of great biodiversity, affectation of public and private spaces of different use and impact on the population well-being. The management of municipal authorities of this type of risks is still limited, since there is no decisional tool that can improve the preventive planning and the response to the annual presence of these events. For this reason, the generation of a study on potential fores fires represents the first step towards the comprehension and the reduction of risks. The present article presents the result of this study, the mechanisms and the efforts of the municipal technicians that made possible the achievement of these tools in the frame of the Risk Reduction Program of the Metropolitan District of Quito. The obtained results allowed the implementation of prevention actions in areas with very valuable ecosystems services but fragile in the same time, as well as the improvement of the fire emergency plans in order to optimize resources and reinforce local capacities. 

  3. Simulation of fire in a deposit of radioactive waste and the radiological risk associated to this scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Domingos, Érica Nascimento; Lima, Zelmo Rodrigues de; Aguiar, Laís Alencar de

    2017-01-01

    A fire at radioactive waste deposit can result in significant damage as well as serious risks to the environment and the health of the general public. The CNEN (National Commission of Nuclear Energy) norms have fire protection regulations criteria and requirements to prevent the occurrence, neutralize the action and minimize the effects of the fire on the radioactive material present on the plant. These norms it is for to avoid or limit to the lowest possible levels the effects of ionizing radiation or toxic substances on humans and the environment. Before a possible fire containing radioactive material is necessary information that can estimate the dose in which the population will be submitted. In this work the proposal is to simulate a fire scenario containing radioactive material using Hotspot Health Physics simulation code and to identify the radiological risk of cancer in the respiratory system associated with this scenario using the BEIR V model. (author)

  4. Simulation of fire in a deposit of radioactive waste and the radiological risk associated to this scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Domingos, Érica Nascimento; Lima, Zelmo Rodrigues de, E-mail: erica.ndomingos@gmail.com, E-mail: zrlima@ien.gov.br [Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear (IEN/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Aguiar, Laís Alencar de, E-mail: laguiars@ird.gov.br [Instituto de Radioprotecao e Dosimetria (IRD/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2017-07-01

    A fire at radioactive waste deposit can result in significant damage as well as serious risks to the environment and the health of the general public. The CNEN (National Commission of Nuclear Energy) norms have fire protection regulations criteria and requirements to prevent the occurrence, neutralize the action and minimize the effects of the fire on the radioactive material present on the plant. These norms it is for to avoid or limit to the lowest possible levels the effects of ionizing radiation or toxic substances on humans and the environment. Before a possible fire containing radioactive material is necessary information that can estimate the dose in which the population will be submitted. In this work the proposal is to simulate a fire scenario containing radioactive material using Hotspot Health Physics simulation code and to identify the radiological risk of cancer in the respiratory system associated with this scenario using the BEIR V model. (author)

  5. MELTER: A model of the thermal response of cargos transported in the Safe-Secure Trailer subject to fire environments for risk assessment applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Larsen, M.E.

    1994-08-01

    MELTER is an analysis of cargo responses inside a fire-threatened Safe-Secure Trailer (SST) developed for the Defense Program Transportation Risk Assessment (DPTRA). Many simplifying assumptions are required to make the subject problem tractable. MELTER incorporates modeling which balances the competing requirements of execution speed, generality, completeness of essential physics, and robustness. Input parameters affecting the analysis include those defining the fire scenario, those defining the cargo loaded in the SST, and those defining properties of the SST. For a specified fire, SST, and cargo geometry MELTER predicts the critical fire duration that will lead to a failure. The principal features of the analysis include: (a) Geometric considerations to interpret fire-scenario descriptors in terms of a thermal radiation boundary condition, (b) a simple model of the SST's wall combining the diffusion model for radiation through optically-thick media with an endothermic reaction front to describe the charring of dimensional, rigid foam in the SST wall, (c) a transient radiation enclosure model, (d) a one-dimensional, spherical idealization of the shipped cargos providing modularity so that cargos of interest can be inserted into the model, and (e) associated numerical methods to integrate coupled, differential equations and find roots

  6. Exergy Analysis of Operating Lignite Fired Thermal Power Plant

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Murugesan

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The energy assessment must be made through the energy quantity as well as the quality. But the usual energy analysisevaluates the energy generally on its quantity only. However, the exergy analysis assesses the energy on quantity as well asthe quality. The aim of the exergy analysis is to identify the magnitudes and the locations of real energy losses, in order toimprove the existing systems, processes or components. The present paper deals with an exergy analysis performed on anoperating 50MWe unit of lignite fired steam power plant at Thermal Power Station-I, Neyveli Lignite Corporation Limited,Neyveli, Tamil Nadu, India. The exergy losses occurred in the various subsystems of the plant and their components havebeen calculated using the mass, energy and exergy balance equations. The distribution of the exergy losses in several plantcomponents during the real time plant running conditions has been assessed to locate the process irreversibility. The Firstlaw efficiency (energy efficiency and the Second law efficiency (exergy efficiency of the plant have also been calculated.The comparison between the energy losses and the exergy losses of the individual components of the plant shows that themaximum energy losses of 39% occur in the condenser, whereas the maximum exergy losses of 42.73% occur in the combustor.The real losses of energy which has a scope for the improvement are given as maximum exergy losses that occurredin the combustor.

  7. Stratigraphic charcoal analysis on petrographic thin sections: Application to fire history in northwestern Minnesota

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, James S.

    1988-07-01

    Results of stratigraphic charcoal analysis from thin sections of varved lake sediments have been compared with fire scars on red pine trees in northwestern Minnesota to determine if charcoal data accurately reflect fire regimes. Pollen and opaque-spherule analyses were completed from a short core to confirm that laminations were annual over the last 350 yr. A good correspondence was found between fossil-charcoal and fire-scar data. Individual fires could be identified as specific peaks in the charcoal curves, and times of reduced fire frequency were reflected in the charcoal data. Charcoal was absent during the fire-suppression era from 1920 A.D. to the present. Distinct charcoal maxima from 1864 to 1920 occurred at times of fire within the lake catchment. Fire was less frequent during the 19th century, and charcoal was substantially less abundant. Fire was frequent from 1760 to 1815, and charcoal was abundant continuously. Fire scars and fossil charcoal indicate that fires did not occur during 1730-1750 and 1670-1700. Several fires occurred from 1640 to 1670 and 1700 to 1730. Charcoal counted from pollen preparations in the area generally do not show this changing fire regime. Simulated "sampling" of the thin-section data in a fashion comparable to pollen-slide methods suggests that sampling alone is not sufficient to account for differences between the two methods. Integrating annual charcoal values in this fashion still produced much higher resolution than the pollen-slide method, and the postfire suppression decline of charcoal characteristic of my method (but not of pollen slides) is still evident. Consideration of the differences in size of fragments counted by the two methods is necessary to explain charcoal representation in lake sediments.

  8. Analysis of patents on extinguishing agent for sodium fires

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeong, Ji Young; Jeong, K. C.; Kim, B. H.; Kim, T. J.; Choi, J. H.

    2002-02-01

    This report relates to the extinction of sodium fires, particularly where the burning sodium is in liquid form. The total of 14 patents on extinguishing agents for sodium fires patented from 1969 to 1997 are analyzed and summarized. All of the patents analyzed were issued from USA, France and Japan

  9. Analysis of patents on extinguishing agent for sodium fires

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jeong, Ji Young; Jeong, K C; Kim, B H; Kim, T J; Choi, J H

    2002-02-01

    This report relates to the extinction of sodium fires, particularly where the burning sodium is in liquid form. The total of 14 patents on extinguishing agents for sodium fires patented from 1969 to 1997 are analyzed and summarized. All of the patents analyzed were issued from USA, France and Japan.

  10. Use of fire hazard analysis to cost effectively manage facility modifications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krueger, K., E-mail: kkruger@plcfire.com [PLC Fire Safety Solutions, Fredericton, NB (Canada); Cronk, R., E-mail: rcronk@plcfire.com [PLC Fire Safety Solutions, Mississauga, ON (Canada)

    2014-07-01

    In Canada, licenced Nuclear power facilities, or facilities that process, handle or store nuclear material are required by the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission to have a change control process in place. These processes are in place to avoid facility modifications that could result in an increase in fire hazards, or degradation of fire protection systems. Change control processes can have a significant impact on budgets associated with plant modifications. A Fire Hazard Analysis (FHA) is also a regulatory requirement for licenced facilities in Canada. An FHA is an extensive evaluation of a facility's construction, nuclear safety systems, fire hazards, and fire protection features. This paper is being presented to outline how computer based data management software can help organize facilities' fire safety information, manage this information, and reduce the costs associated with preparation of FHAs as well as facilities' change control processes. (author)

  11. Way finding during fire evacuation; an analysis of unannounced fire drills

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kobes, M.; Helsloot, I.; Vries, de B.; Post, J.G.; Oberije, N.; Groenewegen, K.

    2010-01-01

    Findings in earlier studies on fire evacuation and way finding suggest that building features have influence on evacuation behaviour. For example, way finding is believed to be strongly dependent on the lay-out of the building and seems to be hardly dependent on (escape) route signs. Though some

  12. thermal analysis of a small scale solid waste-fired steam boiler

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    Thermal analysis of a small scale solid waste-fired steam generator is presented in this paper. The analysis was based on the chosen design specifications which are operating steam ... include: wind, bio-energy, geothermal, solar thermal,.

  13. Assessment of the Fire Risk Levels in an Office Building and a Nightclub with Prescriptive Designs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yilmaz, D.; Steffensen, F.B.; Jomaas, Grunde

    2014-01-01

    A comparison of the risk level of an office building and a nightclub with code compliant prescriptive designs was conducted in order to evaluate whether an uniform safety level of the two occupancy types can be established. A risk assessment method using Monte Carlo simulations and 1- and 2-zone......-movement time and the movement time were adjusted for the required safe egress time (RSET) of the nightclub. The number of simulations required in order to obtain reliable results was considered sufficient at 20,000. The comparison of the risk profiles of the nightclub and the office building showed significant...... difference in risk levels, with that of the nightclub being substantially higher. The higher risk level in the nightclub is caused by a relatively fast mean value of the fire growth rate and the high number of occupants. Hence, the requirements in the prescriptive code do not ensure a similar safety level...

  14. Adsorber fires

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holmes, W.

    1987-01-01

    The following conclusions are offered with respect to activated charcoal filter systems in nuclear power plants: (1) The use of activated charcoal in nuclear facilities presents a potential for deep-seated fires. (2) The defense-in-depth approach to nuclear fire safety requires that if an ignition should occur, fires must be detected quickly and subsequently suppressed. (3) Deep-seated fires in charcoal beds are difficult to extinguish. (4) Automatic water sprays can be used to extinguish fires rapidly and reliably when properly introduced into the burning medium. The second part of the conclusions offered are more like challenges: (1) The problem associated with inadvertent actuations of fire protection systems is not a major one, and it can be reduced further by proper design review, installation, testing, and maintenance. Eliminating automatic fire extinguishing systems for the protection of charcoal adsorbers is not justified. (2) Removal of automatic fire protection systems due to fear of inadvertent fire protection system operation is a case of treating the effect rather than the cause. On the other hand, properly maintaining automatic fire protection systems will preserve the risk of fire loss at acceptable levels while at the same time reducing the risk of damage presented by inadvertent operation of fire protection systems

  15. 105-DR Large Sodium Fire Facility decontamination, sampling, and analysis plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knaus, Z.C.

    1995-01-01

    This is the decontamination, sampling, and analysis plan for the closure activities at the 105-DR Large Sodium Fire Facility at Hanford Reservation. This document supports the 105-DR Large Sodium Fire Facility Closure Plan, DOE-RL-90-25. The 105-DR LSFF, which operated from about 1972 to 1986, was a research laboratory that occupied the former ventilation supply room on the southwest side of the 105-DR Reactor facility in the 100-D Area of the Hanford Site. The LSFF was established to investigate fire fighting and safety associated with alkali metal fires in the liquid metal fast breeder reactor facilities. The decontamination, sampling, and analysis plan identifies the decontamination procedures, sampling locations, any special handling requirements, quality control samples, required chemical analysis, and data validation needed to meet the requirements of the 105-DR Large Sodium Fire Facility Closure Plan in compliance with the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act

  16. The evaluation of meta-analysis techniques for quantifying prescribed fire effects on fuel loadings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karen E. Kopper; Donald McKenzie; David L. Peterson

    2009-01-01

    Models and effect-size metrics for meta-analysis were compared in four separate meta-analyses quantifying surface fuels after prescribed fires in ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Dougl. ex Laws.) forests of the Western United States. An aggregated data set was compiled from eight published reports that contained data from 65 fire treatment units....

  17. Object-based Forest Fire Analysis for Pedrógão Grande Fire Using Landsat 8 OLI and Sentinel-2A Imagery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tonbul, H.; Kavzoglu, T.

    2017-12-01

    Forest fires are among the most important natural disasters with the damage to the natural habitat and human-life. Mapping damaged forest fires is crucial for assessing ecological effects caused by fire, monitoring land cover changes and modeling atmospheric and climatic effects of fire. In this context, satellite data provides a great advantage to users by providing a rapid process of detecting burning areas and determining the severity of fire damage. Especially, Mediterranean ecosystems countries sets the suitable conditions for the forest fires. In this study, the determination of burnt areas of forest fire in Pedrógão Grande region of Portugal occurred in June 2017 was carried out using Landsat 8 OLI and Sentinel-2A satellite images. The Pedrógão Grande fire was one of the largest fires in Portugal, more than 60 people was killed and thousands of hectares were ravaged. In this study, four pairs of pre-fire and post-fire top of atmosphere (TOA) and atmospherically corrected images were utilized. The red and near infrared (NIR) spectral bands of pre-fire and post-fire images were stacked and multiresolution segmentation algorithm was applied. In the segmentation processes, the image objects were generated with estimated optimum homogeneity criteria. Using eCognition software, rule sets have been created to distinguish unburned areas from burned areas. In constructing the rule sets, NDVI threshold values were determined pre- and post-fire and areas where vegetation loss was detected using the NDVI difference image. The results showed that both satellite images yielded successful results for burned area discrimination with a very high degree of consistency in terms of spatial overlap and total burned area (over 93%). Object based image analysis (OBIA) was found highly effective in delineation of burnt areas.

  18. International Conference on Risk Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Oliveira, Teresa; Rigas, Alexandros; Gulati, Sneh

    2015-01-01

    This book covers the latest results in the field of risk analysis. Presented topics include probabilistic models in cancer research, models and methods in longevity, epidemiology of cancer risk, engineering reliability and economical risk problems. The contributions of this volume originate from the 5th International Conference on Risk Analysis (ICRA 5). The conference brought together researchers and practitioners working in the field of risk analysis in order to present new theoretical and computational methods with applications in biology, environmental sciences, public health, economics and finance.

  19. CCDP evaluation of the fire areas of KSNP using CFAST

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Yoon Hwan; Yang, Joon Eon; Kim, Jong Hoon

    2005-01-01

    During the past decade, the nuclear power industry has been moving away from prescriptive rules and practices toward risk-informed and performance-based engineering analysis to support the decision making for plant fire protection programs. For example, the National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) prepared NFPA 805, Performance-Based Standard for Fire Protection for Light Water Reactor Electric Generating Plants 2001 Edition. One crucial element in supporting the risk-informed fire protection is availability of simple and reliable methods and tools for evaluating the likelihood and consequences of fire scenarios. These tools directly benefit risk-informed and performance-based fire protection and application of risk information to resolve fire protection issues. Now the deterministic analysis results for the cable integrity is not given in case of performing the fire PSA. So it is necessary to apply the results for the fire modeling to the fire PSA model to develop the more realistic model. This document is intended to analyze the peak temperature of the upper gas layer using the fire modeling code, CFAST , to evaluate the integrity of the cable located on the dominant pump rooms, and to assess the CCDP(Conditional Core Damage Probability) using the results of the cable integrity. Accordingly, the fire safety assessment for the dominant fire areas using the fire modeling code will be capable of evaluating the consequences of the fire scenario, of reducing the the uncertainty, and to develop a more realistic model

  20. Probabilistic safety analysis for fire events for the NPP Isar 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmaltz, H.; Hristodulidis, A.

    2007-01-01

    The 'Probabilistic Safety Analysis for Fire Events' (Fire-PSA KKI2) for the NPP Isar 2 was performed in addition to the PSA for full power operation and considers all possible events which can be initiated due to a fire. The aim of the plant specific Fire-PSA was to perform a quantitative assessment of fire events during full power operation, which is state of the art. Based on simplistic assumptions referring to the fire induced failures, the influence of system- and component-failures on the frequency of the core damage states was analysed. The Fire-PSA considers events, which will result due to fire-induced failures of equipment on the one hand in a SCRAM and on the other hand in events, which will not have direct operational effects but because of the fire-induced failure of safety related installations the plant will be shut down as a precautionary measure. These events are considered because they may have a not negligible influence on the frequency of core damage states in case of failures during the plant shut down because of the reduced redundancy of safety related systems. (orig.)

  1. Oil well fires of Operation Desert Storm--defining troop exposures and determining health risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heller, Jack M

    2011-07-01

    During Operation Desert Storm, in February 1991, Iraqi troops began burning Kuwaiti oil wells. Almost immediately there was concern about possible adverse health effects in U.S. personnel exposed to crude oil combustion products. Combustions products were predicted from the known composition of Kuwaiti crude oil. Monitoring sites were established in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait; about 5,000 environmental samples were studied. Data collected were used to develop health risk assessments for the geographic areas sampled. This initial approach to assessing risk had to be greatly expanded when Congress passed Public Law 102-190, requiring development of means to calculate environmental exposures for individual U.S. service members. To estimate daily exposure levels for the entire area over 10 months for all U.S. troops, air dispersion modeling was used in conjunction with satellite imagery and geographic information system technology. This methodology made it possible to separate the risk caused by oil fire smoke from the total risk from all sources for each service member. The U.S. military responses to health concerns related to the oil well fires and to Public Law 102-190 were reviewed. Consideration was given to changes in technology, practices, and policies over the last two decades that might impact a similar contemporary response.

  2. Qualitative Analysis Results for Applications of a New Fire Probabilistic Safety Assessment Method to Ulchin Unit 3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, Daeil; Kim, Kilyoo; Jang, Seungcheol

    2013-01-01

    The fire PRA Implementation Guide has been used for performing a fire PSA for NPPs in Korea. Recently, US NRC and EPRI developed a new fire PSA method, NUREG/CR-6850, to provide state-of-the-art methods, tools, and data for the conduct of a fire PSA for a commercial nuclear power plant (NPP). Due to the limited budget and man powers for the development of KSRP, hybrid PSA approaches, using NUREG/CR-6850 and Fire PRA Implementation Guide, will be employed for conducting a fire PSA of Ulchin Unit 3. In this paper, the qualitative analysis results for applications of a new fire PSA method to Ulchin Unit 3 are presented. This paper introduces the qualitative analysis results for applications of a new fire PSA method to Ulchin Unit 3. Compared with the previous industry, the number of fire areas for quantification identified and the number of equipment selected has increased

  3. Advanced risk analysis of systems endangered by ESD

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kiss, Istvan; Szedenik, Norbert; Nemeth, Balint; Gulyas, Attila; Berta, Istvan

    2008-01-01

    Evaluation of industrial processes to determine risk of fire or explosion caused by electrostatic discharge (ESD) is even nowadays qualitative in most cases. Although qualitative analysis significantly helps to make an industrial process safer, it is based on the survey of the process and strongly subjective, depending on the estimation of an expert. Fault tree analysis is a traditional method to quantify the risk; it helps to select optimal protection. However, determination of top event, secondary events and basic events of the fault tree is difficult, especially the quantification of the probabilities of the basic events. In several cases no statistical information is available for most of the events. Using fuzzy membership functions instead of simple numbers for the quantification of probabilities makes it possible to take this uncertainty into consideration. Fuzzy logic based fault tree analysis of chemical processes were made to determine the effect of basic events on the probability of the top event (explosion or fire) and its reliability.

  4. Possibility of Fire Accident Analysis in Road Tunnel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Vidmar

    2004-09-01

    Full Text Available The basic aim of this treatise is to research the relevant featuresof the control and management of fire event in road tunnels.The simulation of 200 meters long cut out of the road tunnelis performed with the computer code FDS (Fire DynamicsSimulator which is based on the computational fluid dynamics.FDS is used to simulate fire dynamics behavior in three differentscenarios: natural ventilation, forced ventilation with axialventilators and vertical smoke extraction.It is believed that the present research, the methodology appliedand its findings should promote and improve safety andreliability of fire safety in road tunnels and to cope with thecomplex contemporary logistic demands of safety and reliabilityin the transportation of passengers and goods.

  5. Modeling and Analysis of Realistic Fire Scenarios in Spacecraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooker, J. E.; Dietrich, D. L.; Gokoglu, S. A.; Urban, D. L.; Ruff, G. A.

    2015-01-01

    An accidental fire inside a spacecraft is an unlikely, but very real emergency situation that can easily have dire consequences. While much has been learned over the past 25+ years of dedicated research on flame behavior in microgravity, a quantitative understanding of the initiation, spread, detection and extinguishment of a realistic fire aboard a spacecraft is lacking. Virtually all combustion experiments in microgravity have been small-scale, by necessity (hardware limitations in ground-based facilities and safety concerns in space-based facilities). Large-scale, realistic fire experiments are unlikely for the foreseeable future (unlike in terrestrial situations). Therefore, NASA will have to rely on scale modeling, extrapolation of small-scale experiments and detailed numerical modeling to provide the data necessary for vehicle and safety system design. This paper presents the results of parallel efforts to better model the initiation, spread, detection and extinguishment of fires aboard spacecraft. The first is a detailed numerical model using the freely available Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS). FDS is a CFD code that numerically solves a large eddy simulation form of the Navier-Stokes equations. FDS provides a detailed treatment of the smoke and energy transport from a fire. The simulations provide a wealth of information, but are computationally intensive and not suitable for parametric studies where the detailed treatment of the mass and energy transport are unnecessary. The second path extends a model previously documented at ICES meetings that attempted to predict maximum survivable fires aboard space-craft. This one-dimensional model implies the heat and mass transfer as well as toxic species production from a fire. These simplifications result in a code that is faster and more suitable for parametric studies (having already been used to help in the hatch design of the Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle, MPCV).

  6. Surface Accessibility with Spatial Analysis During Fire Extinguishing Procedures: Example on the Island of Vis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kruno Lepoglavec

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Background and Purpose: The existing public and forest transport infrastructure (truck forest roads are permanent objects used when passing through forests. They also serve as a firefighter belt and provide direct access to firefighting vehicles, or are used as the starting point where firefighting teams extinguish fires or move toward remote fires. The paper identifies the existing fire road network (including public roads, forest roads, non-classified roads and fire roads for access of firefighting vehicles during fire extinguishing interventions. Material and Methods: An analysis of the intervention rate was conducted on a dispersive sample (35 positions from two volunteer fire associations (VFA on the island of Vis. Also, an analysis of the surface availability to fire vehicles concerning the time of departure from the fire station was conducted, as well as the comparison with the Standard time of intervention defined by the regulations on fire department organization in the Republic of Croatia. Results: For each simulated fire location for intervention of two existing volunteer fire associations: VFA Komiža and VFA Vis, results show that for a few fire locations, despite a smaller distance from the VFA Komiža, a quicker intervention is possible from the VFA Vis (locations 4, 5 and 14, and vice versa (locations 21, 22 and 25. With the use of a New Service Area, tool intervention times regarding different areas were calculated. Intervention times were divided into intervals: 25 min. The last two categories of area are beyond reach for firefighters within the Standard time of intervention (15 min and together they comprise to 27.88% of the total research area. Conclusions: The results of Closest Facility tool indicate that for the simulated fire position the best/fastest route is not always the shortest one, because of a significant effect of the structural elements of each road, the state of the road and the longitudinal slope of the road

  7. SFPE handbook of fire protection engineering

    CERN Document Server

    Gottuk, Daniel; Jr, John; Harada, Kazunori; Kuligowski, Erica; Puchovsky, Milosh; Torero, Jose´; Jr, John; WIECZOREK, CHRISTOPHER

    2016-01-01

    Revised and significantly expanded, the fifth edition of this classic work offers both new and substantially updated information. As the definitive reference on fire protection engineering, this book provides thorough treatment of the current best practices in fire protection engineering and performance-based fire safety. Over 130 eminent fire engineers and researchers contributed chapters to the book, representing universities and professional organizations around the world. It remains the indispensible source for reliable coverage of fire safety engineering fundamentals, fire dynamics, hazard calculations, fire risk analysis, modeling and more. With seventeen new chapters and over 1,800 figures, the this new edition contains: • Step-by-step equations that explain engineering calculations • Comprehensive revision of the coverage of human behavior in fire, including several new chapters on egress system design, occupant evacuation scenarios, combustion toxicity and data for human behavior analysis • Rev...

  8. MATHEMATICAL RISK ANALYSIS: VIA NICHOLAS RISK MODEL AND BAYESIAN ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anass BAYAGA

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this second part of a two-phased study was to explorethe predictive power of quantitative risk analysis (QRA method andprocess within Higher Education Institution (HEI. The method and process investigated the use impact analysis via Nicholas risk model and Bayesian analysis, with a sample of hundred (100 risk analysts in a historically black South African University in the greater Eastern Cape Province.The first findings supported and confirmed previous literature (KingIII report, 2009: Nicholas and Steyn, 2008: Stoney, 2007: COSA, 2004 that there was a direct relationship between risk factor, its likelihood and impact, certiris paribus. The second finding in relation to either controlling the likelihood or the impact of occurrence of risk (Nicholas risk model was that to have a brighter risk reward, it was important to control the likelihood ofoccurrence of risks as compared with its impact so to have a direct effect on entire University. On the Bayesian analysis, thus third finding, the impact of risk should be predicted along three aspects. These aspects included the human impact (decisions made, the property impact (students and infrastructural based and the business impact. Lastly, the study revealed that although in most business cases, where as business cycles considerably vary dependingon the industry and or the institution, this study revealed that, most impacts in HEI (University was within the period of one academic.The recommendation was that application of quantitative risk analysisshould be related to current legislative framework that affects HEI.

  9. Country risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    David, A.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reports that the oil industry has been an internationally based industry that has been heavily dependent on outside financing sources. Historically, financing came from investment houses that, in most cases, participated in the projects as equity investors. However, investment companies can no longer satisfy the capital requirements of the current high level of exploration and development activities. The current trend is to involve commercial banks on a purely lending basis. Commercial banks, by their nature, are risk averse. In the case of oil and gas exploration and production they are asked to take not only technical risk and price risk but geopolitical risk as well. Methods have been developed by commercial banks to reduce technical and price risks to point which enables them to be comfortable with a loan. However, geopolitical risks are more difficult to assess. The risk associated with many countries are the nationalization of the investment, new tax restrictions, restriction of currency movements, and/or revisions to the production sharing agreements

  10. The state of art of internal fire PSA in nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu Xinli; Zhao Bo; Zheng Xiangyang

    2010-01-01

    The operational experiences of nuclear power plants (NPPs) show that the internal fires challenge effectively the nuclear safety of NPPs. Thus, the authorities having jurisdiction in the world have enhanced the supervision on fire safety in NPPs, asking the licensees to perform fire hazard analysis and evaluate the fire risk. This article mainly describes the state of art of internal fire probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) in the world, and compares the main methods and standards for internal fire PSA. (authors)

  11. Research on Influence and Prediction Model of Urban Traffic Link Tunnel curvature on Fire Temperature Based on Pyrosim--SPSS Multiple Regression Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xiao Ju; Yao, Kun; Dai, Jun Yu; Song, Yun Long

    2018-05-01

    The underground space, also known as the “fourth dimension” of the city, reflects the efficient use of urban development intensive. Urban traffic link tunnel is a typical underground limited-length space. Due to the geographical location, the special structure of space and the curvature of the tunnel, high-temperature smoke can easily form the phenomenon of “smoke turning” and the fire risk is extremely high. This paper takes an urban traffic link tunnel as an example to focus on the relationship between curvature and the temperature near the fire source, and use the pyrosim built different curvature fire model to analyze the influence of curvature on the temperature of the fire, then using SPSS Multivariate regression analysis simulate curvature of the tunnel and fire temperature data. Finally, a prediction model of urban traffic link tunnel curvature on fire temperature was proposed. The regression model analysis and test show that the curvature is negatively correlated with the tunnel temperature. This model is feasible and can provide a theoretical reference for the urban traffic link tunnel fire protection design and the preparation of the evacuation plan. And also, it provides some reference for other related curved tunnel curvature design and smoke control measures.

  12. Shifts in functional traits elevate risk of fire-driven tree dieback in tropical savanna and forest biomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pellegrini, Adam F A; Franco, Augusto C; Hoffmann, William A

    2016-03-01

    Numerous predictions indicate rising CO2 will accelerate the expansion of forests into savannas. Although encroaching forests can sequester carbon over the short term, increased fires and drought-fire interactions could offset carbon gains, which may be amplified by the shift toward forest plant communities more susceptible to fire-driven dieback. We quantify how bark thickness determines the ability of individual tree species to tolerate fire and subsequently determine the fire sensitivity of ecosystem carbon across 180 plots in savannas and forests throughout the 2.2-million km(2) Cerrado region in Brazil. We find that not accounting for variation in bark thickness across tree species underestimated carbon losses in forests by ~50%, totaling 0.22 PgC across the Cerrado region. The lower bark thicknesses of plant species in forests decreased fire tolerance to such an extent that a third of carbon gains during forest encroachment may be at risk of dieback if burned. These results illustrate that consideration of trait-based differences in fire tolerance is critical for determining the climate-carbon-fire feedback in tropical savanna and forest biomes. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. Risk analysis of Odelouca cofferdam

    OpenAIRE

    Pimenta, L.; Caldeira, L.; Maranha das Neves, E.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we present the risk analysis of Odelouca Cofferdam, using an event tree analysis. The initializing events, failure modes and analysed limit states are discussed based on an influence diagram. The constructed event trees and their interpretation are presented. The obtained risk values are represented in an FN plot superimposed to the acceptability and tolerability risk limits proposed for Portuguese dams. Initially, particular emphasis is placed on the main characteristic...

  14. Fire simulation in radioactive waste disposal and the radiation risk associated

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Domingos, Érica Nascimento

    2018-01-01

    An atmospheric dispersion of radioactive material is one of the possible consequences of an accident scenario in nuclear installations, radiative and radioactive waste deposit. Taking into account a possibility of this release of radioactive material into the atmosphere this work proposes a modeling of the atmospheric dispersion from a fire scenario in a deposit of radioactive waste of low and middle level of radiation varying the amount of inventory released in the fire. For this simulation was adopted the software of physical codes of medical health, the HotSpot Health Physics Codes which uses the Gaussian model to calculate an atmospheric dispersion based on the Pasquill atmospheric stability classes. This software calculates a total effective dose in relation to distance, such as a compromised dose in a list of specific organs, among them the lung, object of work study for calculating the risk of cancer associated with a low dose of radiation. The radiological risk calculation is held by the BEIR V model, Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiations, one of the models to estimate the relative risk of cancer induced by ionizing radiation. (author)

  15. Developing a Risk Model for Fire in Passenger Ships - Based on Bayesian Belief Network

    OpenAIRE

    Dokmo, Hanne Bjørkås

    2016-01-01

    Passenger ships, especially cruise ships, are rapidly increasing in size. With larger vessels, comes a greater risk to the passengers if something where to happen. A fire on a passenger vessel can spread quickly, and with as much as thousands of people needing to be evacuated many things could go wrong. The issue of the safety on board is therefore crucial to consider, seeing as the consequences could be tremendous. There are three types of passenger ships; Passenger vessel, RoPax vessel and ...

  16. Analysis of historical forest fire regime in Madrid region (1984-2010) and its relation with land-use/land-cover changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gómez-Nieto, Israel; Martín, María del Pilar; Salas, Francisco Javier; Gallardo, Marta

    2013-04-01

    Understanding the interaction between natural and socio-economic factors that determine fire regime is essential to make accurate projections and impact assessments. However, this requires having accurate historical, systematic, homogeneous and spatially explicit information on fire occurrence. Fire databases usually have serious limitations in this regard; therefore other sources of information, such as remote sensing, have emerged as alternatives to generate optimal fire maps on various spatial and temporal scales. Several national and international projects work in order to generate information to study the factors that determine the current fire regime and its future evolution. This work is included in the framework of the project "Forest fires under climate, social and economic Changes in Europe, the Mediterranean and other fire-affected areas of the World" (FUME http://www.fumeproject.eu), which aims to study the changes and factors related to fire regimes through time to determine the potential impacts on vegetation in Mediterranean regions and concrete steps to address future risk scenarios. We analyzed the changes in the fire regime in Madrid region (Spain) in the past three decades (1984-2010) and its relation to land use changes. We identified and mapped fires that have occurred in the region during those years using Landsat satellite images by combining digital techniques and visual analysis. The results show a clear cyclical behaviour of the fire, with years of high incidence (as 1985, 2000 and 2003, highlighted by the number of fires and the area concerned, over 2000 ha) followed by another with a clear occurrence decrease. At the same time, we analyzed the land use changes that have occurred in Madrid region between the early 80s and mid-2000s using as reference the CORINE Land-cover maps (1990, 2000 and 2006) and the Vegetation and Land Use map of the Community of Madrid, 1982. We studied the relationship between fire regimes and observed land

  17. Crown Fire Potential

    Data.gov (United States)

    Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — Crown fire potential was modeled using FlamMap, an interagency fire behavior mapping and analysis program that computes potential fire behavior characteristics. The...

  18. Thermodynamic performance analysis of gas-fired air-cooled adiabatic absorption refrigeration systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, L.; Chen, G.M.; Wang, Q.; Zhong, M.

    2007-01-01

    In China, the application of small size gas-fired air-cooled absorption refrigeration systems as an alternative for electric compression air conditioning systems has shown broad prospects due to occurrence of electricity peak demand in Chinese big cities and lack of water resources. However, for conventional air-cooled absorption refrigeration systems, it is difficult to enhance the heat and mass transfer process in the falling film absorber, and may cause problems, for example, remarkable increase of pressure, temperature and concentration in the generators, risk of crystallization, acceleration of corrosion, degradation of performance, and so on. This paper presents a gas-fired air-cooled adiabatic absorption refrigeration system using lithium bromide-water solutions as its working fluid, which is designed with a cooling capacity of 16 kW under standard conditions. The system has two new features of waste heat recovery of condensed water from generator and an adiabatic absorber with an air cooler. Performance simulation and characteristic analysis are crucial for the optimal control and reliability of operation in extremely hot climates. A methodology is presented to simulate thermodynamic performance of the system. The influences of outdoor air temperature on operation performances of the system are investigated

  19. Analysis of fire deaths in Poland and influence of smoke toxicity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giebułtowicz, Joanna; Rużycka, Monika; Wroczyński, Piotr; Purser, David A; Stec, Anna A

    2017-08-01

    Dwelling fires have changed over the years because building contents and the materials used in then have changed. They all contribute to an ever-growing diversity of chemical species found in fires, many of them highly toxic. These arise largely from the changing nature of materials in interior finishes and furniture, with an increasing content of synthetic materials containing higher levels of nitrogen, halogen and phosphorus additives. While there is still a belief that carbon monoxide is the major lethal toxic agent in fires, the hydrogen cyanide and acid gases released from these additives are now well-recognised as major contributory causes of incapacitation, morbidity and mortality in domestic fires. Data for the total number of 263 fire death cases in the Mazowieckie region (mainly Warsaw area) of Poland between 2003-2011 for dwellings fires were obtained from pathologists, forensic toxicologists, fire fighters and analysed. Factors contributing to the death such as the findings of the full post mortem examination (age, sex, health status, burns), the toxicological analysis (carbon monoxide, alcohol etc.), and a thorough investigation of the scene (fire conditions, fuel, etc.) were taken into account and are summarised. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Campylobacter Risk Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nauta, Maarten

    In several countries quantitative microbiological risk assessments (QMRAs) have been performed for Campylobacter in chicken meat. The models constructed for this purpose provide a good example of the development of QMRA in general and illustrate the diversity of available methods. Despite...... the differences between the models, the most prominent conclusions of the QMRAs are similar. These conclusions for example relate to the large risk of highly contaminated meat products and the insignificance of contamination from Campylobacter positive flocks to negative flocks during slaughter and processing...

  1. The social construction of risk in a rural community: Responses of local residents to the 1990 Hagersville (Ontario) tire fire

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eyles, J.; Taylor, S.M.; Baxter, J.; Sider, D.; Willms, D.

    1993-01-01

    This paper presents the findings of research relating to the 1990 Hagersville (Ontario) tire fire. After reviewing the literature on risk and risk perception, it begins by describing the event as well as the community in which it occurred. The reasons for adopting a qualitative research design are then established practical, conceptual, and methodological. The residents' accounts of the fire, evacuation, and aftermath in terms of concerns, anxieties, and responses are described. Five themes emerge: economic, community, health, environmental, and governance. The paper concludes by putting forward a case study-derived model of risk appraisal and management, and by relating the findings to policy issues. 48 refs., 1 fig

  2. Risk analysis: opening the process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, Ph.; Mays, C.

    1998-01-01

    This conference on risk analysis took place in Paris, 11-14 october 1999. Over 200 paper where presented in the seven following sessions: perception; environment and health; persuasive risks; objects and products; personal and collective involvement; assessment and valuation; management. A rational approach to risk analysis has been developed in the three last decades. Techniques for risk assessment have been thoroughly enhanced, risk management approaches have been developed, decision making processes have been clarified, the social dimensions of risk perception and management have been investigated. Nevertheless this construction is being challenged by recent events which reveal how deficits in stakeholder involvement, openness and democratic procedures can undermine risk management actions. Indeed, the global process most components of risk analysis may be radically called into question. Food safety has lately been a prominent issue, but now debates appear, or old debates are revisited in the domains of public health, consumer products safety, waste management, environmental risks, nuclear installations, automobile safety and pollution. To meet the growing pressures for efficiency, openness, accountability, and multi-partner communication in risk analysis, institutional changes are underway in many European countries. However, the need for stakeholders to develop better insight into the process may lead to an evolution of all the components of risks analysis, even in its most (technical' steps. For stakeholders of different professional background, political projects, and responsibilities, risk identification procedures must be rendered understandable, quantitative risk assessment must be intelligible and accommodated in action proposals, ranging from countermeasures to educational programs to insurance mechanisms. Management formats must be open to local and political input and other types of operational feedback. (authors)

  3. Research and development supporting risk-based wildfire effects prediction for fuels and fire management: Status and needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kevin Hyde; Matthew B. Dickinson; Gil Bohrer; David Calkin; Louisa Evers; Julie Gilbertson-Day; Tessa Nicolet; Kevin Ryan; Christina Tague

    2013-01-01

    Wildland fire management has moved beyond a singular focus on suppression, calling for wildfire management for ecological benefit where no critical human assets are at risk. Processes causing direct effects and indirect, long-term ecosystem changes are complex and multidimensional. Robust risk-assessment tools are required that account for highly variable effects on...

  4. How wildfire risk is related to urban planning and Fire Weather Index in SE France (1990-2013).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, D M; Carrega, P; Ren, Y; Caillouet, P; Bouillon, C; Robert, S

    2018-04-15

    Wildfires burn >450,000ha of forest every year in Euro-Mediterranean countries. Many fires originate in the Wildland Urban Interface (WUI) where housing density and weather conditions affect fire occurrence. Housing density is determined by long term land use policies while weather conditions evolve quickly. The first objective was to quantify the impacts of land use policy on WUI characteristics and fire risk in SE France during 1990-2012. The second objective was to quantify how Fire Weather Index (FWI) is related to fire occurrence. WUI was mapped from 1990, 1999, and 2012 building layers and crossed with a NDVI derived vegetation layer. In all, 12 WUI categories were derived: 4 building density classes and 3 vegetation layers. The I87 FWI was based on daily temperature, wind speed, relative humidity and soil water content. Despite a 30% increase in the number of new buildings, WUI area increased by only 5% as new housing filled in open space in existing WUI area. This trend can be linked to national level urban planning legislation and forest fire protection laws. Major driver variables determining housing location were aspect, slope, and distance to city centers. Fire frequency and burned area were nonlinearly related to FWI: 73% of the 99 fires occurred during weeks with FWI values ≥90 even though these accounted for only 44% of all weeks. Burned area was even more sensitive to FWI since 97% of total burned area occurred during weeks with mean FWI values ≥90. All days with burned areas >100ha had FWI values >150. The study demonstrated that WUI legislation can be an efficient tool to limit WUI fire risk. FWI results suggest the predicted increase in extreme summer heat events with global warming could increase burned area as firefighting resources are stretched beyond capacity. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Risk Management and Simulation Based Live Fire Test and Evaluation in the Performance Based Defense Business Environment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Brown, R

    1999-01-01

    The objective of this analysis is to reduce the policy and management process costs of Congressionally mandated Live Fire Test and Evaluation procedures in the new Performance Based Defense Acquisition environment...

  6. Integrating climatic and fuels information into National Fire Risk Decision Support Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    W. Cooke; V. Anantharaj; C. Wax; J. Choi; K. Grala; M. Jolly; G.P. Dixon; J. Dyer; D.L. Evans; G.B. Goodrich

    2007-01-01

    The Wildland Fire Assessment System (WFAS) is a component of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service Decision Support Systems (DSS) that support fire potential modeling. Fire potential models for Mississippi and for Eastern fire environments have been developed as part of a National Aeronautic and Space Agency-funded study aimed at demonstrating the utility...

  7. Bulletin of Forest Fire risk in Albania- The experience of the Albania National Centre for forecast and Monitoring of Natural Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berdufi, I.; Jaupaj, O.; Marku, M.; Deda, M.; Fiori, E.; D'Andrea, M.; Biondi, G.; Fioruci, P.; Massabò, M.; Zorba, P.; Gjonaj, M.

    2012-04-01

    In the territory of Albania usually every year around 1000 ha are affected by forest fires, from which about 500 ha are completely destroyed. The number of forest fires (nf), with the burning surface (bs) in years has been like this: during the years 1988-1998: nf / bs = 2.19, 1998-2001: nf / bs = 5.66, year 2002 -2005: nf / bs = 8.2, and during the years 2005-2006: nf / bs = 11.9, while economic losses in a year by forest fires is about 2 million of Euro. The increase in years of these figures and the last floods which happened in the last two years in Shkoder, led to an international cooperation, that between the Italian Civil Protection Department and the Albania General Directorate of Civil Emergency. The focus of this cooperation was the building capacity of the Albanian National System of Civil Protection in forecasting, monitoring and prevention forest fires and floods risks. As a result of this collaboration the "National Center for the Forecast and Monitoring of Natural Risks", was set up at the Institute of Geosciences, Energy, Water and Environment. The Center is the first of its kind in Albania. The mission of the Center is the prediction and monitoring of the forest fire and flood risk in the Albanian territory, as a tools for risk reduction and mitigation. The first step to achieve this strategy was the implementation of the forest fires risk forecast model "RISICO". RISICO was adapted for whole Albania territory by CIMA Research Foundation. The Center, in the summer season, issues a daily bulletin. The bulletin reports the potential risk scenarios related with the ignition and propagation of fires in Albania. The bulletin is broadcasted through email or fax within 12.00 AM of each working day. It highlights where and when severe risk conditions may occur within the next 48 hours

  8. The FIRAC code - its applicability and boundary conditions for fire accident analysis in a reprocessing plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roewekamp, M.

    1991-01-01

    After a short description of the modelling capabilities and the implementation of the computer code the possible applications of FIRAC are demonstrated by means of two test-examples. The so gained experiences with respect to the variation of different parameters, convergency criteria, etc. can be used for the simulation of a fire accident in the storage area for unconditioned combustible low active waste (LAW) of the planned reprocessing plant at Wackersdorf. The code is prepared for calculating direct effects (of the fire) in the fire room as well as particularly effects on adjacent rooms and ventilation systems. Source terms for the release of radioactive particles outside a building can also be investigated. The temperature and pressure curves for the fire room as well as for other areas in the facility show that no damages caused by temperature effects are expected for the considered fire of low active waste. As a result of the calculated mass and volumetric flows radioactive aerosole particles could be transported into normally non-active areas. The FIRAC code renders the possibility of a more detailed analysis of those parameters relevant for fire accidents and by this means completes the so far phenomenological procedure of the fire hazard analysis in nuclear facilities. (orig.) [de

  9. A meta-analysis of the fire-oak hypothesis: Does prescribed burning promote oak reproduction in eastern North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patrick H. Brose; Daniel C. Dey; Ross J. Phillips; Thomas A. Waldrop

    2013-01-01

    The fire-oak hypothesis asserts that the current lack of fire is a reason behind the widespread oak (Quercus spp.) regeneration difficulties of eastern North America, and use of prescribed burning can help solve this problem. We performed a meta-analysis on the data from 32 prescribed fire studies conducted in mixed-oak forests to test whether they...

  10. Hydrocarbon characterization experiments in fully turbulent fires : results and data analysis.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Suo-Anttila, Jill Marie; Blanchat, Thomas K.

    2011-03-01

    As the capabilities of numerical simulations increase, decision makers are increasingly relying upon simulations rather than experiments to assess risks across a wide variety of accident scenarios including fires. There are still, however, many aspects of fires that are either not well understood or are difficult to treat from first principles due to the computational expense. For a simulation to be truly predictive and to provide decision makers with information which can be reliably used for risk assessment the remaining physical processes must be studied and suitable models developed for the effects of the physics. The model for the fuel evaporation rate in a liquid fuel pool fire is significant because in well-ventilated fires the evaporation rate largely controls the total heat release rate from the fire. This report describes a set of fuel regression rates experiments to provide data for the development and validation of models. The experiments were performed with fires in the fully turbulent scale range (> 1 m diameter) and with a number of hydrocarbon fuels ranging from lightly sooting to heavily sooting. The importance of spectral absorption in the liquid fuels and the vapor dome above the pool was investigated and the total heat flux to the pool surface was measured. The importance of convection within the liquid fuel was assessed by restricting large scale liquid motion in some tests. These data sets provide a sound, experimentally proven basis for assessing how much of the liquid fuel needs to be modeled to enable a predictive simulation of a fuel fire given the couplings between evaporation of fuel from the pool and the heat release from the fire which drives the evaporation.

  11. Fires in storages of LFO: Analysis of hazard of structural collapse of steel–aluminium containers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rebec, A., E-mail: andrej.rebec@zag.si [ZAG – Slovenian National Building and Civil Engineering Institute, Fire Laboratory and Fire Engineering, Dimičeva 12, SI-1000 Ljubljana (Slovenia); Kolšek, J. [ZAG – Slovenian National Building and Civil Engineering Institute, Fire Laboratory and Fire Engineering, Dimičeva 12, SI-1000 Ljubljana (Slovenia); Plešec, P. [ZAG – Slovenian National Building and Civil Engineering Institute, Laboratory for the Efficient Use of Energy, Renewables, and Acoustics, Dimičeva 12, SI-1000 Ljubljana (Slovenia)

    2016-04-05

    Highlights: • Pool fires of light fuel oil (LFO) in above-ground storages are discussed. • Hazard of structural collapse of steel–aluminium containers of LFO is analysed. • Experiments were performed for determination of heat radiation from LFO pool fires. • Elasto-plastic material data were derived with tests for 3xxx and 6xxx aluminium. • High-temperature creep of 3xxx aluminium is discussed. - Abstract: Pool fires of light fuel oil (LFO) in above-ground storages with steel–aluminium containers are discussed. A model is developed for assessments of risks of between-tank fire spread. Radiative effects of the flame body are accounted for by a solid flame radiation model. Thermal profiles evolved due to fire in the adjacent tanks and their consequential structural response is pursued in an exact (materially and geometrically non-linear) manner. The model's derivation is demonstrated on the LFO tank storage located near the Port of Koper (Slovenia). In support of the model, data from literature are adopted where appropriate. Analytical expressions are derived correspondingly for calculations of emissive characteristics of LFO pool fires. Additional data are collected from experiments. Fire experiments conducted on 300 cm diameter LFO pans and at different wind speeds and high-temperature uniaxial tension tests of the analysed aluminium alloys types 3xxx and 6xxx are presented. The model is of an immediate fire engineering practical value (risk analyses) or can be used for further research purposes (e.g. sensitivity and parametric studies). The latter use is demonstrated in the final part of the paper discussing possible effects of high-temperature creep of 3xxx aluminium.

  12. Advances in probabilistic risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hardung von Hardung, H.

    1982-01-01

    Probabilistic risk analysis can now look back upon almost a quarter century of intensive development. The early studies, whose methods and results are still referred to occasionally, however, only permitted rough estimates to be made of the probabilities of recognizable accident scenarios, failing to provide a method which could have served as a reference base in calculating the overall risk associated with nuclear power plants. The first truly solid attempt was the Rasmussen Study and, partly based on it, the German Risk Study. In those studies, probabilistic risk analysis has been given a much more precise basis. However, new methodologies have been developed in the meantime, which allow much more informative risk studies to be carried out. They have been found to be valuable tools for management decisions with respect to backfitting, reinforcement and risk limitation. Today they are mainly applied by specialized private consultants and have already found widespread application especially in the USA. (orig.) [de

  13. Technology for analysis of sodium pool fire characteristics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Byung Ho; Jeong, K C; Jeong, J Y; Kim, T J; Choi, J H; Choi, Y D; Hwang, S T

    2000-09-01

    Basic and detail design for medium sodium fire test facility was carried out and medium sodium fire test facility was constructed. Design data is as follows. - Test cell material : Concrete with high strength - Test cell dimension ; 48m{sup 3} (3x4x4m) - Design temp. ; 700 deg C - Operation temp. ; 530 deg C - Design pressure ; 1 bar (max.) - Dimension(Inside) : 3 x 4 x 4(m) - Test cell thickness ; 45cm - Liner plate with (Thickness : 3mm) In this study, sodium fire characteristics was analyzed and data for validation of computer code was produced. Oxygen and sodium filled in pool pan didn't burns instantly, but pool fire occurred through pre-ignition. Distribution of temperature in test cell was divided by two parts, and temperature at upper position appeared to be higher than temperature at lower position. The temperature in test cell increased with the feed of sodium. The pressure in test cell increased with the feed of sodium. When the feed of sodium was 8kg, peak pressure was 0.075 bar. Peak temperature in sodium pool appeared to be 854 deg C regardless of the feed of sodium. Decrease of 1% in oxygen concentration showed the rise of 0.036bar in pressure.

  14. Technology for analysis of sodium pool fire characteristics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Byung Ho; Jeong, K. C.; Jeong, J. Y.; Kim, T. J.; Choi, J. H.; Choi, Y. D.; Hwang, S. T.

    2000-09-01

    Basic and detail design for medium sodium fire test facility was carried out and medium sodium fire test facility was constructed. Design data is as follows. - Test cell material : Concrete with high strength - Test cell dimension ; 48m 3 (3x4x4m) - Design temp. ; 700 deg C - Operation temp. ; 530 deg C - Design pressure ; 1 bar (max.) - Dimension(Inside) : 3 x 4 x 4(m) - Test cell thickness ; 45cm - Liner plate with (Thickness : 3mm) In this study, sodium fire characteristics was analyzed and data for validation of computer code was produced. Oxygen and sodium filled in pool pan didn't burns instantly, but pool fire occurred through pre-ignition. Distribution of temperature in test cell was divided by two parts, and temperature at upper position appeared to be higher than temperature at lower position. The temperature in test cell increased with the feed of sodium. The pressure in test cell increased with the feed of sodium. When the feed of sodium was 8kg, peak pressure was 0.075 bar. Peak temperature in sodium pool appeared to be 854 deg C regardless of the feed of sodium. Decrease of 1% in oxygen concentration showed the rise of 0.036bar in pressure

  15. Dynamic analysis and pattern visualization of forest fires.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopes, António M; Tenreiro Machado, J A

    2014-01-01

    This paper analyses forest fires in the perspective of dynamical systems. Forest fires exhibit complex correlations in size, space and time, revealing features often present in complex systems, such as the absence of a characteristic length-scale, or the emergence of long range correlations and persistent memory. This study addresses a public domain forest fires catalogue, containing information of events for Portugal, during the period from 1980 up to 2012. The data is analysed in an annual basis, modelling the occurrences as sequences of Dirac impulses with amplitude proportional to the burnt area. First, we consider mutual information to correlate annual patterns. We use visualization trees, generated by hierarchical clustering algorithms, in order to compare and to extract relationships among the data. Second, we adopt the Multidimensional Scaling (MDS) visualization tool. MDS generates maps where each object corresponds to a point. Objects that are perceived to be similar to each other are placed on the map forming clusters. The results are analysed in order to extract relationships among the data and to identify forest fire patterns.

  16. Technology for analysis of sodium pool fire characteristics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Byung Ho; Jeong, K. C.; Jeong, J. Y.; Kim, T. J.; Choi, J. H.; Choi, Y. D.; Hwang, S. T

    2000-09-01

    Basic and detail design for medium sodium fire test facility was carried out and medium sodium fire test facility was constructed. Design data is as follows. - Test cell material : Concrete with high strength - Test cell dimension ; 48m{sup 3} (3x4x4m) - Design temp. ; 700 deg C - Operation temp. ; 530 deg C - Design pressure ; 1 bar (max.) - Dimension(Inside) : 3 x 4 x 4(m) - Test cell thickness ; 45cm - Liner plate with (Thickness : 3mm) In this study, sodium fire characteristics was analyzed and data for validation of computer code was produced. Oxygen and sodium filled in pool pan didn't burns instantly, but pool fire occurred through pre-ignition. Distribution of temperature in test cell was divided by two parts, and temperature at upper position appeared to be higher than temperature at lower position. The temperature in test cell increased with the feed of sodium. The pressure in test cell increased with the feed of sodium. When the feed of sodium was 8kg, peak pressure was 0.075 bar. Peak temperature in sodium pool appeared to be 854 deg C regardless of the feed of sodium. Decrease of 1% in oxygen concentration showed the rise of 0.036bar in pressure.

  17. Prevention of Fire and Risk of Explosions in “Porofor” Production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Urbane Valentina

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available We think that not enough attention is devoted to the aspect of safety along with the development of dangerous technologies, equipment and machinery, as well as discovery of new manufacturing methods. This issue concerns essentially enterprises and areas, which contain explosive materials and toxics. Therefore, special attention should be devoted to these kinds of enterprises to define the level of risk of technogenic breakdowns and disasters, involving fire and explosion. When producing Porofor, we offer precise methods and means to decrease dangerous risks related to working with explosive and flammable substances, for example, we propose the protection package to prevent the explosion hazards during the technological process of manufacturing the forming agents.

  18. Fire Power

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denker, Deb; West, Lee

    2009-01-01

    For education administrators, campus fires are not only a distressing loss, but also a stark reminder that a campus faces risks that require special vigilance. In many ways, campuses resemble small communities, with areas for living, working and relaxing. A residence hall fire may raise the specter of careless youth, often with the complication of…

  19. Introduction of the risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Campon, G.; Martinez, I.

    2013-01-01

    An introduction of risks analysis was given in the exposition which main issues were: food innocuousness, world, regional and national food context,change of paradigms, health definition, risk, codex, standardization, food chain role, trade agreement, codex alimentarius, food transmission diseases cost impact

  20. Hydroproject risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murdock, R.V.; Gulliver, J.S.

    1991-01-01

    Traditionally, economic feasibility studies performed for potential hydropower plant sites have included either no uncertainty or at best an ad hoc value associated with estimated benefits. However, formal methods for analyzing uncertainty do exist and have been outlined in the past. An application of these methods is demonstrated through conversion of a hydropower survey program, HYFEAS, to run on LOTUS 1-2-3, using the add-in software package RISK. In this paper the program principals are outlined and a case study of it's application to a hydropower site is presented

  1. Estimation of time to rupture in a fire using 6FIRE, a lumped parameter UF6 cylinder transient heat transfer/stress analysis model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, W.R.; Anderson, J.C.

    1995-01-01

    The transportation of UF 6 is subject to regulations requiring the evaluation of packaging under a sequence of hypothetical accident conditions including exposure to a 30-min 800 degree C (1475 degree F) fire [10 CFR 71.73(c)(3)]. An issue of continuing interest is whether bare cylinders can withstand such a fire without rupturing. To address this issue, a lumped parameter heat transfer/stress analysis model (6FIRE) has been developed to simulate heating to the point of rupture of a cylinder containing UF 6 when it is exposed to a fire. The model is described, then estimates of time to rupture are presented for various cylinder types, fire temperatures, and fill conditions. An assessment of the quantity of UF 6 released from containment after rupture is also presented. Further documentation of the model is referenced

  2. Integrated approach to fire safety at the Krsko nuclear power plant - fire protection action plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lambright, J.A.; Cerjak, J.; Spiler, J.; Ioannidi, J.

    1998-01-01

    Nuclear Power Plant Krsko (NPP Krsko) is a Westinghouse design, single-unit, 1882 Megawatt thermal (MWt), two-loop, pressurized water nuclear power plant. The fire protection program at NPP Krsko has been reviewed and reports issued recommending changes and modifications to the program, plant systems and structures. Three reports were issued, the NPP Krsko Fire Hazard Analysis (Safe Shout down Separation Analysis Report), the ICISA Analysis of Core Damage Frequency Due to Fire at the NPP Krsko and IPEEE (Individual Plant External Event Examination) related to fire risk. The Fire Hazard Analysis Report utilizes a compliance - based deterministic approach to identification of fire area hazards. This report focuses on strict compliance from the perspective of US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC), standards, guidelines and acceptance criteria and does not consider variations to comply with the intent of the regulations. The probabilistic analysis methide used in the ICISA and IPEEE report utilizes a risk based nad intent based approach in determining critical at-risk fire areas. NPP Krsko has already completed the following suggestions/recommendations from the above and OSART reports in order to comply with Appendix R: Installation of smoke detectors in the Control Room; Installation of Emergency Lighting in some plant areas and of Remote Shout down panels; Extension of Sound Power Communication System; Installation of Fire Annunciator Panel at the On-site Fire Brigade Station; Installation of Smoke Detection System in the (a) Main Control Room Panels, (b) Essential Service Water Building. (c) Component Cooling Building pump area, chiller area and HVAC area, (d) Auxiliary Building Safety pump rooms, (e) Fuel Handling room, (f) Intermediate Building AFFW area and compressor room, and (g) Tadwaste building; inclusion of Auxiliary operators in the Fire Brigade; training of Fire Brigade Members in Plant Operation (9 week course); Development of Fire Door Inspection and

  3. Fire regime in Mediterranean ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biondi, Guido; Casula, Paolo; D'Andrea, Mirko; Fiorucci, Paolo

    2010-05-01

    The analysis of burnt areas time series in Mediterranean regions suggests that ecosystems characterising this area consist primarily of species highly vulnerable to the fire but highly resilient, as characterized by a significant regenerative capacity after the fire spreading. In a few years the area burnt may once again be covered by the same vegetation present before the fire. Similarly, Mediterranean conifer forests, which often refers to plantations made in order to reforest the areas most severely degraded with high erosion risk, regenerate from seed after the fire resulting in high resilience to the fire as well. Only rarely, and usually with negligible damages, fire affects the areas covered by climax species in relation with altitude and soil types (i.e, quercus, fagus, abies). On the basis of these results, this paper shows how the simple Drossel-Schwabl forest fire model is able to reproduce the forest fire regime in terms of number of fires and burned area, describing whit good accuracy the actual fire perimeters. The original Drossel-Schwabl model has been slightly modified in this work by introducing two parameters (probability of propagation and regrowth) specific for each different class of vegetation cover. Using model selection methods based on AIC, the model with the optimal number of classes with different fire behaviour was selected. Two different case studies are presented in this work: Regione Liguria and Regione Sardegna (Italy). Both regions are situated in the center of the Mediterranean and are characterized by a high number of fires and burned area. However, the two regions have very different fire regimes. Sardinia is affected by the fire phenomenon only in summer whilst Liguria is affected by fires also in winter, with higher number of fires and larger burned area. In addition, the two region are very different in vegetation cover. The presence of Mediterranean conifers, (Pinus Pinaster, Pinus Nigra, Pinus halepensis) is quite spread in

  4. Pain without gain? Reviewing the risks and rewards of investing in Russian coal-fired electricity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gorbacheva, Natalya V.; Sovacool, Benjamin K.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • This study explores the risks and rewards facing coal in Russia. • Rewards include low costs, investment, rural modernization, exports, and innovation. • Risks include development challenges, air pollution and climate change, and policy support. - Abstract: Coal use—and thus investment—is expected to grow considerably in the Russian Federation over the next few decades. Projections suggest that at least $200 billion of investment will be needed to modernize existing coal-fired power plants by 2030, but the bulk of this financing is to come from the private sector or foreign enterprises. This study asks: what are the possible investment risks and rewards of pursuing this expansion of coal in the Russian power sector? To provide an answer, the study uses a mixed methods approach consisting of elite semi-structured interviews and a review of English and Russian peer-reviewed literature. The study provides a brief overview of the Russian electricity sector before discussing five distinct rewards to investing in coal such as low production costs, competitive returns on investment, rural modernization, expansion of exports, and the acceleration of innovation. These benefits however are offset by five risks: inferior performance to investments in oil and gas, development challenges, air pollution and climate change, social degradation from mining, and a tradeoff with existing policies incentivizing renewable energy and energy efficiency. The study concludes by analyzing what these disparate risks and rewards mean for policymakers and energy analysts

  5. Codimension-two bifurcation analysis on firing activities in Chay neuron model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duan Lixia; Lu Qishao

    2006-01-01

    Using codimension-two bifurcation analysis in the Chay neuron model, the relationship between the electric activities and the parameters of neurons is revealed. The whole parameter space is divided into two parts, that is, the firing and silence regions of neurons. It is found that the transition sets between firing and silence regions are composed of the Hopf bifurcation curves of equilibrium states and the saddle-node bifurcation curves of limit cycles, with some codimension-two bifurcation points. The transitions from silence to firing in neurons are due to the Hopf bifurcation or the fold limit cycle bifurcation, but the codimension-two singularities lead to complexity in dynamical behaviour of neuronal firing

  6. Codimension-two bifurcation analysis on firing activities in Chay neuron model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Duan Lixia [School of Science, Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Beijing 100083 (China); Lu Qishao [School of Science, Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Beijing 100083 (China)]. E-mail: qishaolu@hotmail.com

    2006-12-15

    Using codimension-two bifurcation analysis in the Chay neuron model, the relationship between the electric activities and the parameters of neurons is revealed. The whole parameter space is divided into two parts, that is, the firing and silence regions of neurons. It is found that the transition sets between firing and silence regions are composed of the Hopf bifurcation curves of equilibrium states and the saddle-node bifurcation curves of limit cycles, with some codimension-two bifurcation points. The transitions from silence to firing in neurons are due to the Hopf bifurcation or the fold limit cycle bifurcation, but the codimension-two singularities lead to complexity in dynamical behaviour of neuronal firing.

  7. STOCHASTIC METHODS IN RISK ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimíra OSADSKÁ

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we review basic stochastic methods which can be used to extend state-of-the-art deterministic analytical methods for risk analysis. We can conclude that the standard deterministic analytical methods highly depend on the practical experience and knowledge of the evaluator and therefore, the stochastic methods should be introduced. The new risk analysis methods should consider the uncertainties in input values. We present how large is the impact on the results of the analysis solving practical example of FMECA with uncertainties modelled using Monte Carlo sampling.

  8. An assessment of mercury emissions and health risks from a coal-fired power plant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fthenakis, V.M.; Lipfert, F.W.; Moskowitz, P.D.; Saroff, L. [Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY (United States)

    1995-12-01

    Title III of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA) directed the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to evaluate the rate and effect of mercury emissions in the atmosphere and technologies to control the emissions. The US DOE sponsored a risk assessment project at Brookhaven (BNL) to evaluate health risks of mercury emissions from coal combustion. Methylmercury (MeHg) is the compound predominantly responsible for human exposure to atmospheric mercury in the United States, through fish ingestion. In the BNL study, health risks to adults resulting from Hg emissions from a hypothetical coal-fired power plant were estimated using probabilistic risk assessment techniques. This study showed that the effects of emissions of a single large power plant may double the background exposures to MeHg resulting from consuming fish obtained from a localized are near the power plant. Even at these more elevated exposure levels, the attributable incidence in mild neurological symptoms (paresthesia) was estimated to be quite small, especially when compared with the estimated background incidence in the population. 29 refs., 5 figs., 2 tabs.

  9. An assessment of mercury emissions and health risks from a coal-fired power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fthenakis, V.M.; Lipfert, F.W.; Moskowitz, P.D.; Saroff, L.

    1995-01-01

    Title III of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA) directed the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to evaluate the rate and effect of mercury emissions in the atmosphere and technologies to control the emissions. The US DOE sponsored a risk assessment project at Brookhaven (BNL) to evaluate health risks of mercury emissions from coal combustion. Methylmercury (MeHg) is the compound predominantly responsible for human exposure to atmospheric mercury in the United States, through fish ingestion. In the BNL study, health risks to adults resulting from Hg emissions from a hypothetical coal-fired power plant were estimated using probabilistic risk assessment techniques. This study showed that the effects of emissions of a single large power plant may double the background exposures to MeHg resulting from consuming fish obtained from a localized are near the power plant. Even at these more elevated exposure levels, the attributable incidence in mild neurological symptoms (paresthesia) was estimated to be quite small, especially when compared with the estimated background incidence in the population. 29 refs., 5 figs., 2 tabs

  10. Fire-induced risk in Andisols: An State-of-the-Art

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neris, Jonay; Cerdà, Artemi; Santamarta, Juan C.; Doerr, Stefan

    2014-05-01

    Wildfires are increasingly recognized as the primary natural hazard affecting forests and woodlands (Pausas, 2004), and changing the soil properties due to the heat (Aznar et al., 2013). They are also the factor that determines the increase in soil and water losses (Cerdà, 1998a; Shakesby, 2011). Fire contributes to increase the surface runoff due to the water repellency (Mataix-Solera et al., 2004; Cerdà and Doerr, 2008) although a quick recovery is found when vegetation is recovered (Cerdà, 1988b; Guénon et al., 2013). Within the recovery process ash is the key factor once the vegetation is recovered (Bodí et al., 2011; León et al., 2013; Pereira et al., 2013). To reduce the impact of forest fires some strategies were developed (Prats et al., 2013). The fire direct and indirect impacts on ecosystems and the human population, infrastructures, supplies and goods have been increasing over the last decades due to climatic and socio-economic changes and are projected to increase further in the future. In the densely populated volcanic regions that are characterized by steep and fire-prone slopes, Andisols are the main soil type. Their mineralogical properties provide them with specific chemical and physical properties which strength their fertility and resistance to erosion but also differentiate their response to environmental disturbances such as land use change (Jiménez et al., 2006; Neris et al., 2012) but also forest fires and agricultural burning (Neris et al., 2013; Poulenard et al., 2001). Despite their relevance for human development and safety, little specific knowledge exists about them and papers addressing their singularities are limited. This works seeks to compile and review existing scientific works focused on the effects of fire on this particular type of soils, evaluate their response to this disturbance and identify knowledge gaps related to the fire-induced risk in Andisols in order to develop new lines of research. Acknowledgements This

  11. Applying GIS to develop a model for forest fire risk: A case study in Espírito Santo, Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eugenio, Fernando Coelho; dos Santos, Alexandre Rosa; Fiedler, Nilton Cesar; Ribeiro, Guido Assunção; da Silva, Aderbal Gomes; dos Santos, Áureo Banhos; Paneto, Greiciane Gaburro; Schettino, Vitor Roberto

    2016-05-15

    A forest fire risk map is a basic element for planning and protecting forested areas. The main goal of this study was to develop a statistical model for preparing a forest fire risk map using GIS. Such model is based on assigning weights to nine variables divided into two classes: physical factors of the site (terrain slope, land-use/occupation, proximity to roads, terrain orientation, and altitude) and climatic factors (precipitation, temperature, water deficit, and evapotranspiration). In regions where the climate is different from the conditions of this study, the model will require an adjustment of the variables weights according to the local climate. The study area, Espírito Santo State, exhibited approximately 3.81% low risk, 21.18% moderate risk, 30.10% high risk, 41.50% very high risk, and 3.40% extreme risk of forest fire. The areas classified as high risk, very high and extreme, contemplated a total of 78.92% of heat spots. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Lead Determination and Heterogeneity Analysis in Soil from a Former Firing Range

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urrutia-Goyes, Ricardo; Argyraki, Ariadne; Ornelas-Soto, Nancy

    2017-07-01

    Public places can have an unknown past of pollutants deposition. The exposition to such contaminants can create environmental and health issues. The characterization of a former firing range in Athens, Greece will allow its monitoring and encourage its remediation. This study is focused on Pb contamination in the site due to its presence in ammunition. A dense sampling design with 91 location (10 m apart) was used to determine the spatial distribution of the element in the surface soil of the study area. Duplicates samples were also collected one meter apart from 8 random locations to estimate the heterogeneity of the site. Elemental concentrations were measured using a portable XRF device after simple sample homogenization in the field. Robust Analysis of Variance showed that the contributions to the total variance were 11% from sampling, 1% analytical, and 88% geochemical; reflecting the suitability of the technique. Moreover, the extended random uncertainty relative to the mean concentration was 91.5%; confirming the high heterogeneity of the site. Statistical analysis defined a very high contamination in the area yielding to suggest the need for more in-depth analysis of other contaminants and possible health risks.

  13. Analysis of pressurization of plutonium oxide storage vials during a postulated fire

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Laurinat, J.; Kesterson, M.; Hensel, S.

    2015-02-10

    The documented safety analysis for the Savannah River Site evaluates the consequences of a postulated 1000 °C fire in a glovebox. The radiological dose consequences for a pressurized release of plutonium oxide powder during such a fire depend on the maximum pressure that is attained inside the oxide storage vial. To enable evaluation of the dose consequences, pressure transients and venting flow rates have been calculated for exposure of the storage vial to the fire. A standard B vial with a capacity of approximately 8 cc was selected for analysis. The analysis compares the pressurization rate from heating and evaporation of moisture adsorbed onto the plutonium oxide contents of the vial with the pressure loss due to venting of gas through the threaded connection between the vial cap and body. Tabulated results from the analysis include maximum pressures, maximum venting velocities, and cumulative vial volumes vented during the first 10 minutes of the fire transient. Results are obtained for various amounts of oxide in the vial, various amounts of adsorbed moisture, different vial orientations, and different surface fire exposures.

  14. Combined Hydrologic (AGWA-KINEROS2) and Hydraulic (HEC2) Modeling for Post-Fire Runoff and Inundation Risk Assessment through a Set of Python Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barlow, J. E.; Goodrich, D. C.; Guertin, D. P.; Burns, I. S.

    2016-12-01

    Wildfires in the Western United States can alter landscapes by removing vegetation and changing soil properties. These altered landscapes produce more runoff than pre-fire landscapes which can lead to post-fire flooding that can damage infrastructure and impair natural resources. Resources, structures, historical artifacts and others that could be impacted by increased runoff are considered values at risk. .The Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment tool (AGWA) allows users to quickly set up and execute the Kinematic Runoff and Erosion model (KINEROS2 or K2) in the ESRI ArcMap environment. The AGWA-K2 workflow leverages the visualization capabilities of GIS to facilitate evaluation of rapid watershed assessments for post-fire planning efforts. High relative change in peak discharge, as simulated by K2, provides a visual and numeric indicator to investigate those channels in the watershed that should be evaluated for more detailed analysis, especially if values at risk are within or near that channel. Modeling inundation extent along a channel would provide more specific guidance about risk along a channel. HEC-2 and HEC-RAS can be used for hydraulic modeling efforts at the reach and river system scale. These models have been used to address flood boundaries and, accordingly, flood risk. However, data collection and organization for hydraulic models can be time consuming and therefore a combined hydrologic-hydraulic modeling approach is not often employed for rapid assessments. A simplified approach could streamline this process and provide managers with a simple workflow and tool to perform a quick risk assessment for a single reach. By focusing on a single reach highlighted by large relative change in peak discharge, data collection efforts can be minimized and the hydraulic computations can be performed to supplement risk analysis. The incorporation of hydraulic analysis through a suite of Python tools (as outlined by HEC-2) with AGWA-K2 will allow more rapid

  15. Progress towards and barriers to implementation of a risk framework for US federal wildland fire policy and decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    David C. Calkin; Mark A. Finney; Alan A. Ager; Matthew P. Thompson; Krista M. Gebert

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we review progress towards the implementation of a riskmanagement framework for US federal wildland fire policy and operations. We first describe new developments in wildfire simulation technology that catalyzed the development of risk-based decision support systems for strategic wildfire management. These systems include new analytical methods to measure...

  16. Environmental risk assessment of airborne emission from chinese coal-fired power plants with public health detriment criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    He Huimin; Pan Ziqiang; Zhang Yongxing; Xia Yihua

    1997-01-01

    On the basis of investigation of types of dust removers and their efficiency in Chinese coal-fired power plants, human health detriment of airborne non-radioactive and radioactive emissions from the power plants is assessed with public health detriment assessment method. The results show that the risk is primarily from airborne non-radioactive emission

  17. Science You Can Use Bulletin: Fire on the mountain: What motivates homeowners to reduce their wildfire risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sue Miller; Patty Champ; Hannah Brenkert-Smith

    2013-01-01

    New home building in the wildland-urban interface (WUI) continues unabated, despite the high financial and human costs of fighting fires in these areas. The goal of this research is to understand, through surveys and expert assessments, the attitudes and perceptions of WUI homeowners as they relate to taking action to reduce wildfire risk on their property. It also...

  18. Solution of Fire Protection in Historic Buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iringová, Agnes; Idunk, Róbert

    2016-12-01

    The paper introduces optimization of the functional use of renovated spaces in historic buildings in terms of fire risk. It brings assessment of fire protection in the folk house Habánsky Dvor, situated in the village of Veľké Leváre, whose function was changed into the museum. It goes into static analysis of existing load-bearing structures and assessment of their fire resistance according to Eurocodes.

  19. Validation analysis of pool fire experiment (Run-F7) using SPHINCS code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamaguchi, Akira; Tajima, Yuji

    1998-04-01

    SPHINCS (Sodium Fire Phenomenology IN multi-Cell System) code has been developed for the safety analysis of sodium fire accident in a Fast Breeder Reactor. The main features of the SPHINCS code with respect to the sodium pool fire phenomena are multi-dimensional modeling of the thermal behavior in sodium pool and steel liner, modeling of the extension of sodium pool area based on the sodium mass conservation, and equilibrium model for the chemical reaction of pool fire on the flame sheet at the surface of sodium pool during. Therefore, the SPHINCS code is capable of temperature evaluation of the steel liner in detail during the small and/or medium scale sodium leakage accidents. In this study, Run-F7 experiment in which the sodium leakage rate is 11.8 kg/hour has been analyzed. In the experiment the diameter of the sodium pool is approximately 60 cm and the maximum steel liner temperature was 616 degree C. The analytical results tell us the agreement between the SPHINCS analysis and the experiment is excellent with respect to the time history and spatial distribution of the liner temperature, sodium pool extension behavior, as well as atmosphere gas temperature. It is concluded that the pool fire modeling of the SPHINCS code has been validated for this experiment. The SPHINCS code is currently applicable to the sodium pool fire phenomena and the temperature evaluation of the steel liner. The experiment series are continued to check some parameters, i.e., sodium leakage rate and the height of sodium leakage. Thus, the author will analyze the subsequent experiments to check the influence of the parameters and applies SPHINCS to the sodium fire consequence analysis of fast reactor. (author)

  20. Experimental Benchmarking of Fire Modeling Simulations. Final Report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Greiner, Miles; Lopez, Carlos

    2003-01-01

    A series of large-scale fire tests were performed at Sandia National Laboratories to simulate a nuclear waste transport package under severe accident conditions. The test data were used to benchmark and adjust the Container Analysis Fire Environment (CAFE) computer code. CAFE is a computational fluid dynamics fire model that accurately calculates the heat transfer from a large fire to a massive engulfed transport package. CAFE will be used in transport package design studies and risk analyses

  1. ProRisk : risk analysis instrument : developed for William properties

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Doorn, W.H.W.; Egeberg, Ingrid; Hendrickx, Kristoff; Kahramaner, Y.; Masseur, B.; Waijers, Koen; Weglicka, K.A.

    2005-01-01

    This report presents a Risk Analysis Instrument developed for William Properties. Based on the analysis, it appears that the practice of Risk Analysis exists within the organization, yet rather implicit. The Risk Analysis Instrument comes with a package of four components: an activity diagram, a

  2. Spatial mapping and analysis of aerosols during a forest fire using computational mobile microscopy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Yichen; Shiledar, Ashutosh; Luo, Yi; Wong, Jeffrey; Chen, Cheng; Bai, Bijie; Zhang, Yibo; Tamamitsu, Miu; Ozcan, Aydogan

    2018-02-01

    Forest fires are a major source of particulate matter (PM) air pollution on a global scale. The composition and impact of PM are typically studied using only laboratory instruments and extrapolated to real fire events owing to a lack of analytical techniques suitable for field-settings. To address this and similar field test challenges, we developed a mobilemicroscopy- and machine-learning-based air quality monitoring platform called c-Air, which can perform air sampling and microscopic analysis of aerosols in an integrated portable device. We tested its performance for PM sizing and morphological analysis during a recent forest fire event in La Tuna Canyon Park by spatially mapping the PM. The result shows that with decreasing distance to the fire site, the PM concentration increases dramatically, especially for particles smaller than 2 µm. Image analysis from the c-Air portable device also shows that the increased PM is comparatively strongly absorbing and asymmetric, with an aspect ratio of 0.5-0.7. These PM features indicate that a major portion of the PM may be open-flame-combustion-generated element carbon soot-type particles. This initial small-scale experiment shows that c-Air has some potential for forest fire monitoring.

  3. Climate-Driven Risk of Large Fire Occurrence in the Western United States, 1500 to 2003

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crockett, J.; Westerling, A. L.

    2017-12-01

    Spatially comprehensive fire climatology has provided managers with tools to understand thecauses and consequences of large forest wildfires, but a paleoclimate context is necessary foranticipating the trajectory of future climate-fire relationships. Although accumulated charcoalrecords and tree scars have been utilized in high resolution, regional fire reconstructions, there isuncertainty as to how current climate-fire relationships of the western United States (WUS) fitwithin the natural long-term variability. While contemporary PDSI falls within the naturalvariability of the past, contemporary temperatures skew higher. Here, we develop a WUSfire reconstruction by applying climate-fire-topography model built on the 1972 to 2003 periodto the past 500 years, validated by recently updated fire-scar histories from WUS forests. Theresultant narrative provides insight into changing climate-fire relationships during extendedperiods of high aridity and temperature, providing land managers with historical precedent toeffectively anticipate disturbances during future climate change.

  4. Common approach of risks analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noviello, L.; Naviglio, A.

    1996-01-01

    Although, following the resolutions of the High German Court, the protection level of the human beings is an objective which can change in time, it is obvious that it is an important point when there is a risk for the population. This is true more particularly for the industrial plants whose possible accidents could affect the population. The accidents risk analysis indicates that there is no conceptual difference between the risks of a nuclear power plant and those of the other industrial plants as chemical plants, the gas distribution system and the hydraulic dams. A legislation analysis induced by the Seveso Directive for the industrial risks give some important indications which should always be followed. This work analyses more particularly the legislative situation in different European countries and identifies some of the most important characteristics. Indeed, for most of the countries, the situation is different and it is a later difficulties source for nuclear power plants. In order to strengthen this reasoning, this paper presents some preliminary results of an analysis of a nuclear power plant following the approach of other industrial plants. In conclusion, it will be necessary to analyse again the risks assessment approach for nuclear power plants because the real protection level of human beings in a country is determined by the less regulated of the dangerous industrial plants existing at the surroundings. (O.M.)

  5. Analysis of the tropospheric water distribution during FIRE 2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westphal, Douglas L.

    1993-01-01

    The Penn State/NCAR mesoscale model, as adapted for use at ARC, was used as a testbed for the development and validation of cloud models for use in General Circulation Models (GCM's). This modeling approach also allows us to intercompare the predictions of the various cloud schemes within the same dynamical framework. The use of the PSU/NCAR mesoscale model also allows us to compare our results with FIRE-II (First International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project Regional Experiment) observations, instead of climate statistics. Though a promising approach, our work to date revealed several difficulties. First, the model by design is limited in spatial coverage and is only run for 12 to 48 hours at a time. Hence the quality of the simulation will depend heavily on the initial conditions. The poor quality of upper-tropospheric measurements of water vapor is well known and the situation is particularly bad for mid-latitude winter since the coupling with the surface is less direct than in summer so that relying on the model to spin-up a reasonable moisture field is not always successful. Though one of the most common atmospheric constituents, water vapor is relatively difficult to measure accurately, especially operationally over large areas. The standard NWS sondes have little sensitivity at the low temperatures where cirrus form and the data from the GOES 6.7 micron channel is difficult to quantify. For this reason, the goals of FIRE Cirrus II included characterizing the three-dimensional distribution of water vapor and clouds. In studying the data from FIRE Cirrus II, it was found that no single special observation technique provides accurate regional distributions of water vapor. The Raman lidar provides accurate measurements, but only at the Hub, for levels up to 10 km, and during nighttime hours. The CLASS sondes are more sensitive to moisture at low temperatures than are the NWS sondes, but the four stations only cover an area of two hundred kilometers on a side

  6. The Apache Longbow-Hellfire Missile Test at Yuma Proving Ground: Ecological Risk Assessment for Missile Firing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, Daniel Steven; Efroymson, Rebecca Ann; Hargrove, William Walter; Suter, Glenn; Pater, Larry

    2008-01-01

    A multiple stressor risk assessment was conducted at Yuma Proving Ground, Arizona, as a demonstration of the Military Ecological Risk Assessment Framework. The focus was a testing program at Cibola Range, which involved an Apache Longbow helicopter firing Hellfire missiles at moving targets, M60-A1 tanks. This paper describes the ecological risk assessment for the missile launch and detonation. The primary stressor associated with this activity was sound. Other minor stressors included the detonation impact, shrapnel, and fire. Exposure to desert mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus crooki) was quantified using the Army sound contour program BNOISE2, as well as distances from the explosion to deer. Few effects data were available from related studies. Exposure-response models for the characterization of effects consisted of human 'disturbance' and hearing damage thresholds in units of C-weighted decibels (sound exposure level) and a distance-based No Observed Adverse Effects Level for moose and cannonfire. The risk characterization used a weight-of-evidence approach and concluded that risk to mule deer behavior from the missile firing was likely for a negligible number of deer, but that no risk to mule deer abundance and reproduction is expected

  7. Risk Characterization uncertainties associated description, sensitivity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carrillo, M.; Tovar, M.; Alvarez, J.; Arraez, M.; Hordziejewicz, I.; Loreto, I.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation is about risks to the estimated levels of exposure, uncertainty and variability in the analysis, sensitivity analysis, risks from exposure to multiple substances, formulation of guidelines for carcinogenic and genotoxic compounds and risk subpopulations

  8. Analysis of the Earthquake Impact towards water-based fire extinguishing system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, J.; Hur, M.; Lee, K.

    2015-09-01

    Recently, extinguishing system installed in the building when the earthquake occurred at a separate performance requirements. Before the building collapsed during the earthquake, as a function to maintain a fire extinguishing. In particular, the automatic sprinkler fire extinguishing equipment, such as after a massive earthquake without damage to piping also must maintain confidentiality. In this study, an experiment installed in the building during the earthquake, the water-based fire extinguishing saw grasp the impact of the pipe. Experimental structures for water-based fire extinguishing seismic construction step by step, and then applied to the seismic experiment, the building appears in the extinguishing of the earthquake response of the pipe was measured. Construction of acceleration caused by vibration being added to the size and the size of the displacement is measured and compared with the data response of the pipe from the table, thereby extinguishing water piping need to enhance the seismic analysis. Define the seismic design category (SDC) for the four groups in the building structure with seismic criteria (KBC2009) designed according to the importance of the group and earthquake seismic intensity. The event of a real earthquake seismic analysis of Category A and Category B for the seismic design of buildings, the current fire-fighting facilities could have also determined that the seismic performance. In the case of seismic design categories C and D are installed in buildings to preserve the function of extinguishing the required level of seismic retrofit design is determined.

  9. Hydrologic Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Associated With the Increased Role of Fire on Western Landscapes, Great Basin, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, C. J.; Pierson, F. B.; Robichaud, P. R.; Spaeth, K. E.; Hardegree, S. P.; Clark, P. E.; Moffet, C. A.; Al-Hamdan, O. Z.; Boll, J.

    2010-12-01

    Landscape-scale plant community transitions and altered fire regimes across Great Basin, USA, rangelands have increased the likelihood of post-fire flooding and erosion events. These hazards are particularly concerning for western urban centers along the rangeland urban-wildland interface where natural resources, property, and human life are at risk. Extensive conversion of 4-7 million hectares of Great Basin shrub-steppe to cheatgrass-dominated (Bromus tectorum) grasslands has increased the frequency and size of wildland fires within these ecosystems. Fire frequencies have increased by more than an order of magnitude and occur on 3-10 year intervals across much of the cheatgrass-dominated landscape. Extensive tree (Pinus spp. and Juniperus spp.) encroachment into wooded shrub-steppe has increased heavy fuel loads. Ladder fuels in these ecosystems promote rapidly spreading, high-intensity and severe ground-surface-crown fires. These altered fuel structures across much of the historical Great Basin shrub-steppe have initiated an upsurge in large rangeland wildfires and have increased the spatial and temporal vulnerability of these landscapes to amplified runoff and erosion. Resource and infrastructure damages, and loss of life have been reported due to flooding following recent large-scale burning of western rangelands and dry forests. We present a decade of post-fire rangeland hydrologic research that provides a foundation for conceptual modeling of the hydrologic impacts associated with an increased role of rangeland wildfires. We highlight advancements in predictive tools to address this large-scale phenomenon and discuss vital research voids requiring attention. Our geographic emphasis is the Great Basin Region, however, these concepts likely extend elsewhere given the increased role of fire in many geographic regions and across rangeland-to-forest ecotones in the western United States.

  10. Determination of Ignitable Liquids in Fire Debris: Direct Analysis by Electronic Nose

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marta Ferreiro-González

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Arsonists usually use an accelerant in order to start or accelerate a fire. The most widely used analytical method to determine the presence of such accelerants consists of a pre-concentration step of the ignitable liquid residues followed by chromatographic analysis. A rapid analytical method based on headspace-mass spectrometry electronic nose (E-Nose has been developed for the analysis of Ignitable Liquid Residues (ILRs. The working conditions for the E-Nose analytical procedure were optimized by studying different fire debris samples. The optimized experimental variables were related to headspace generation, specifically, incubation temperature and incubation time. The optimal conditions were 115 °C and 10 min for these two parameters. Chemometric tools such as hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA and linear discriminant analysis (LDA were applied to the MS data (45–200 m/z to establish the most suitable spectroscopic signals for the discrimination of several ignitable liquids. The optimized method was applied to a set of fire debris samples. In order to simulate post-burn samples several ignitable liquids (gasoline, diesel, citronella, kerosene, paraffin were used to ignite different substrates (wood, cotton, cork, paper and paperboard. A full discrimination was obtained on using discriminant analysis. This method reported here can be considered as a green technique for fire debris analyses.

  11. Using thermal analysis to evaluate the fire effects on organic matter content of Andisols

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Neris

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Soil organic compounds play a relevant role in aggregate stability and thus, in the susceptibility of soils to erosion. Thermal analysis (N2 and air and chemical oxidation techniques (dichromate and permanganate oxidation were used to evaluate the effects of a forest fire on the organic matter of Andisols. Both thermal analysis and chemical methods showed a decrease in the organic matter content and an increase in the recalcitrance of the remaining organic compounds in the burned zones. Thermal analysis indicated an increase in the thermal stability of the organic compounds of fire-affected soils and a lower content of both labile and recalcitrant pools as a consequence of the fire. However, this decrease was relatively higher in the labile pool and lower in the recalcitrant one, indicative of an increase in the recalcitrance of the remaining organic compounds. Apparently, black carbon did not burn under our experimental conditions. Under N2, the results showed a lower labile and a higher recalcitrant and refractory contents in burned and some unburned soils, possibly due to the lower decomposition rate under N2 flux. Thermal analysis using O2 and the chemical techniques showed a positive relation, but noticeable differences in the total amount of the labile pool. Thermal analysis methods provide direct quantitative information useful to characterize the soil organic matter quality and to evaluate the effects of fire on soils.

  12. The Study on the Quantitative Analysis in LPG Tank's Fire and Explosion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bae, S.J.; Kim, B.J. [Department of chemical Engineering, Soongsil University, Seoul (Korea)

    1999-04-01

    Chemical plant's fire and explosion does not only damage to the chemical plants themselves but also damage to people in or near of the accident spot and the neighborhood of chemical plant. For that reason, Chemical process safety management has become important. One of safety management methods is called 'the quantitative analysis', which is used to reduce and prevent the accident. The results of the quantitative analysis could be used to arrange the equipments, evaluate the minimum safety distance, prepare the safety equipments. In this study we make the computer program to make easy to do quantitative analysis of the accident. The output of the computer program is the magnitude of fire(pool fire and fireball) and explosion (UVCE and BLEVE) effects. We used the thermal radiation as a measure of fire magnitude and used the overpressure as a measure of explosion magnitude. In case of BLEVE, the fly distance of fragment can be evaluated. Also probit analysis was done in every case. As the case study, Buchun LPG explosion accident in Korea was analysed by the program developed. The simulation results showed that the permissible distance was 800m and probit analysis showed that 1st degree burn, 2nd degree burn, and death distances are 450, 280, 260m, respectively. the simulation results showed the good agreement with the result from SAFER PROGRAM made by DuPont. 13 refs., 4 figs., 2 tabs.

  13. Determination of Ignitable Liquids in Fire Debris: Direct Analysis by Electronic Nose

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferreiro-González, Marta; Barbero, Gerardo F.; Palma, Miguel; Ayuso, Jesús; Álvarez, José A.; Barroso, Carmelo G.

    2016-01-01

    Arsonists usually use an accelerant in order to start or accelerate a fire. The most widely used analytical method to determine the presence of such accelerants consists of a pre-concentration step of the ignitable liquid residues followed by chromatographic analysis. A rapid analytical method based on headspace-mass spectrometry electronic nose (E-Nose) has been developed for the analysis of Ignitable Liquid Residues (ILRs). The working conditions for the E-Nose analytical procedure were optimized by studying different fire debris samples. The optimized experimental variables were related to headspace generation, specifically, incubation temperature and incubation time. The optimal conditions were 115 °C and 10 min for these two parameters. Chemometric tools such as hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA) and linear discriminant analysis (LDA) were applied to the MS data (45–200 m/z) to establish the most suitable spectroscopic signals for the discrimination of several ignitable liquids. The optimized method was applied to a set of fire debris samples. In order to simulate post-burn samples several ignitable liquids (gasoline, diesel, citronella, kerosene, paraffin) were used to ignite different substrates (wood, cotton, cork, paper and paperboard). A full discrimination was obtained on using discriminant analysis. This method reported here can be considered as a green technique for fire debris analyses. PMID:27187407

  14. Environmental modeling and health risk analysis (ACTS/RISK)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Aral, M. M

    2010-01-01

    ... presents a review of the topics of exposure and health risk analysis. The Analytical Contaminant Transport Analysis System (ACTS) and Health RISK Analysis (RISK) software tools are an integral part of the book and provide computational platforms for all the models discussed herein. The most recent versions of these two softwa...

  15. Performance of a Protected Wireless Sensor Network in a Fire. Analysis of Fire Spread and Data Transmission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antoine-Santoni, Thierry; Santucci, Jean-François; de Gentili, Emmanuelle; Silvani, Xavier; Morandini, Frederic

    2009-01-01

    The paper deals with a Wireless Sensor Network (WSN) as a reliable solution for capturing the kinematics of a fire front spreading over a fuel bed. To provide reliable information in fire studies and support fire fighting strategies, a Wireless Sensor Network must be able to perform three sequential actions: 1) sensing thermal data in the open as the gas temperature; 2) detecting a fire i.e., the spatial position of a flame; 3) tracking the fire spread during its spatial and temporal evolution. One of the great challenges in performing fire front tracking with a WSN is to avoid the destruction of motes by the fire. This paper therefore shows the performance of Wireless Sensor Network when the motes are protected with a thermal insulation dedicated to track a fire spreading across vegetative fuels on a field scale. The resulting experimental WSN is then used in series of wildfire experiments performed in the open in vegetation areas ranging in size from 50 to 1,000 m2. PMID:22454563

  16. Synergy between land use and climate change increases future fire risk in Amazon forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Page, Yannick; Morton, Douglas; Hartin, Corinne; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Cardoso Pereira, José Miguel; Hurtt, George; Asrar, Ghassem

    2017-12-01

    Tropical forests have been a permanent feature of the Amazon basin for at least 55 million years, yet climate change and land use threaten the forest's future over the next century. Understory forest fires, which are common under the current climate in frontier forests, may accelerate Amazon forest losses from climate-driven dieback and deforestation. Far from land use frontiers, scarce fire ignitions and high moisture levels preclude significant burning, yet projected climate and land use changes may increase fire activity in these remote regions. Here, we used a fire model specifically parameterized for Amazon understory fires to examine the interactions between anthropogenic activities and climate under current and projected conditions. In a scenario of low mitigation efforts with substantial land use expansion and climate change - Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 - projected understory fires increase in frequency and duration, burning 4-28 times more forest in 2080-2100 than during 1990-2010. In contrast, active climate mitigation and land use contraction in RCP4.5 constrain the projected increase in fire activity to 0.9-5.4 times contemporary burned area. Importantly, if climate mitigation is not successful, land use contraction alone is very effective under low to moderate climate change, but does little to reduce fire activity under the most severe climate projections. These results underscore the potential for a fire-driven transformation of Amazon forests if recent regional policies for forest conservation are not paired with global efforts to mitigate climate change.

  17. Preliminary fire hazard analysis for the PUTDR and TRU trenches in the Solid Waste Burial Ground

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gaschott, L.J.

    1995-01-01

    This document represents the Preliminary Fire Hazards Analysis for the Pilot Unvented TRU Drum Retrieval effort and for the Transuranic drum trenches in the low level burial grounds. The FHA was developed in accordance with DOE Order 5480.7A to address major hazards inherent in the facility

  18. Feasibility Analysis of a Type of Soft Firing Technology with Pneumatic Transmission

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YANG Jun-rong; MI Liang-chuan; ZHAO Hua

    2006-01-01

    Aimed at solving the conflict between the requirements of reducing gun recoil and increasing muzzle velocity, a new type of soft firing technology with pneumatic transmission is put forward. By mathematical model and instance simulation, the feasibility analysis of this technique is made. The result shows that the soft firing technology with pneumatic transmission can reduce the maximum pressure on the breechblock by 27 % and increase the muzzle velocity by 20 %. The proposed new approach has the significance to the compatibility of power and flexibility.

  19. Significance analysis of the regional differences on icing time of water onto fire protective clothing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, L. Z.; Jing, L. S.; Zhang, X. Z.; Xia, J. J.; Chen, Y.; Chen, T.; Hu, C.; Bao, Z. M.; Fu, X. C.; Wang, R. J.; Wang, Y.; Wang, Y. J.

    2017-09-01

    The object of this work was to determine the icing temperature in icing experiment. Firstly, a questionnaire investigation was carried out on 38 fire detachments in different regions. These Statistical percentage results were divided into northern east group and northern west group. Secondly, a significance analysis between these two results was made using Mann-Whitney U test. Then the icing temperature was determined in different regions. Thirdly, the icing experiment was made in the environment of -20°C in Daxing’an Mountain. The anti-icing effect of new fire protective clothing was verified in this icing.

  20. Analysis and study on the membrane method of CO2 removal of coal-fired boilers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fangqin, Li; Henan, Li; Jianxing, Ren; Jiang, Wu; Zhongzhu, Qiu

    2010-01-01

    Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is one kind of harmful substances from the burning process of fossil fuel. CO 2 emissions cause serious pollution on atmospheric environment, especially greenhouse effect. In this paper, CO 2 formation mechanism and control methods were researched. Membrane technology was studied to control CO 2 emissions from coal-fired boilers. The relationship between CO 2 removal efficiency and parameters of membrane contactor was analyzed. Through analysis and study, factors affecting on CO 2 removal efficiency were gotten. How to choose the best parameters was known. This would provide theoretical basis for coal-fired utility boilers choosing effective way of CO 2 removal. (author)

  1. What are the most fire-dangerous atmospheric circulations in the Eastern-Mediterranean? Analysis of the synoptic wildfire climatology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paschalidou, A K; Kassomenos, P A

    2016-01-01

    Wildfire management is closely linked to robust forecasts of changes in wildfire risk related to meteorological conditions. This link can be bridged either through fire weather indices or through statistical techniques that directly relate atmospheric patterns to wildfire activity. In the present work the COST-733 classification schemes are applied in order to link wildfires in Greece with synoptic circulation patterns. The analysis reveals that the majority of wildfire events can be explained by a small number of specific synoptic circulations, hence reflecting the synoptic climatology of wildfires. All 8 classification schemes used, prove that the most fire-dangerous conditions in Greece are characterized by a combination of high atmospheric pressure systems located N to NW of Greece, coupled with lower pressures located over the very Eastern part of the Mediterranean, an atmospheric pressure pattern closely linked to the local Etesian winds over the Aegean Sea. During these events, the atmospheric pressure has been reported to be anomalously high, while anomalously low 500hPa geopotential heights and negative total water column anomalies were also observed. Among the various classification schemes used, the 2 Principal Component Analysis-based classifications, namely the PCT and the PXE, as well as the Leader Algorithm classification LND proved to be the best options, in terms of being capable to isolate the vast amount of fire events in a small number of classes with increased frequency of occurrence. It is estimated that these 3 schemes, in combination with medium-range to seasonal climate forecasts, could be used by wildfire risk managers to provide increased wildfire prediction accuracy. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Thermal analysis of GFRP-reinforced continuous concrete decks subjected to top fire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawileh, Rami A.; Rasheed, Hayder A.

    2017-12-01

    This paper presents a numerical study that investigates the behavior of continuous concrete decks doubly reinforced with top and bottom glass fiber reinforced polymer (GFRP) bars subjected to top surface fire. A finite element (FE) model is developed and a detailed transient thermal analysis is performed on a continuous concrete bridge deck under the effect of various fire curves. A parametric study is performed to examine the top cover thickness and the critical fire exposure curve needed to fully degrade the top GFRP bars while achieving certain fire ratings for the deck considered. Accordingly, design tables are prepared for each fire curve to guide the engineer to properly size the top concrete cover and maintain the temperature in the GFRP bars below critical design values in order to control the full top GFRP degradation. It is notable to indicate that degradation of top GFRP bars do not pose a collapse hazard but rather a serviceability concern since cracks in the negative moment region widen resulting in simply supported spans.

  3. How knowledge influences a MCDM analysis: WOCAT Portuguese experience on prevention of forest fires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carreiras, M.; Ferreira, A. J. D.; Moreira, J.; Esteves, T. C. J.; Valente, S.; Soares, J.; Coelho, C. O. A.; Schwilch, G.; Bachmann, F.

    2012-04-01

    Forest management is a major concern for land managers due to its impact on biomass production, surface water quality or landscape beauty. Pursuing the development of a holistic view of the issue (considering economic, environmental and social aspects), an appreciation of the variety policies and techniques is considered essential due to its importance in the context of sustainability. It this context, MCDM could be an important tool on the establishment for the use of the forest. It could be used for exploiting the preferences of decision-makers, stakeholders, or environmental experts obtaining economic values for impacts whose monetization remains problematic. WOCAT has developed a framework for Sustainable Land Management knowledge, covering all steps from data collection, database implementation and decision support. WOCAT methodology allows the environmental risks knowledge and also stakeholder's participation and involvement. It leads to the discussion of issues of the territory and through a participatory, integrative, holistic and impartial process, it identifies environmental problems. In the end guidelines / actions for the territory are settled based on the problems identified. Having an active participatory nature, this process reveals itself as an excellent public participation process. The methodology also brings the territory's decision-makers in contact with the stakeholders. The procedure for identification, assessment and selection of strategies has been developed by the EU project DESIRE in collaboration with WOCAT. The methodology was tested by DESIRE in 16 study sites around the world. As an outcome of the procedure, the methodology may serve as a basis for prioritizing land-use policies, conservation measures and research at a national level. It integrates several exercises for prioritizing land-use policies, conservation measures and research at a regional and national level. In Portugal, forest fires are one of the major factors of land

  4. Credit Risk Evaluation : Modeling - Analysis - Management

    OpenAIRE

    Wehrspohn, Uwe

    2002-01-01

    An analysis and further development of the building blocks of modern credit risk management: -Definitions of default -Estimation of default probabilities -Exposures -Recovery Rates -Pricing -Concepts of portfolio dependence -Time horizons for risk calculations -Quantification of portfolio risk -Estimation of risk measures -Portfolio analysis and portfolio improvement -Evaluation and comparison of credit risk models -Analytic portfolio loss distributions The thesis contributes to the evaluatio...

  5. Study of methodology for low power/shutdown fire PSA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yan Zhen; Li Zhaohua; Li Lin; Song Lei

    2014-01-01

    As a risk assessment technology based on probability, the fire PSA is accepted abroad by nuclear industry in its application in the risk assessment for nuclear power plants. Based on the industry experience, the fire-induced impact on the plant safety during low power and shutdown operation cannot be neglected, therefore fire PSA can be used to assess the corresponding fire risk. However, there is no corresponding domestic guidance/standard as well as accepted analysis methodology up to date. Through investigating the latest evolvement on fire PSA during low power and shutdown operation, and integrating its characteristic with the corresponding engineering experience, an engineering methodology to evaluate the fire risk during low power and shutdown operation for nuclear power plant is established in this paper. In addition, an analysis demonstration as an example is given. (authors)

  6. Sodium pool fire analysis of sodium-cooled fast reactor by calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu Hong; Xu Mi; Jin Degui

    2002-01-01

    Theoretical models were established according to the characteristic of sodium pool fire, and the SPOOL code was created independently. Some transient processes in sodium pool fire were modeled, including chemical reaction of sodium and oxygen; sodium combustion heat transfer modes in several kids of media; production, deposition and discharge of sodium aerosol; mass and energy exchange between different media in different ventilating conditions. The important characteristic parameters were calculated, such as pressure and temperature of gas, temperature of building materials, mass concentration of sodium aerosol, and so on. The SPOOL code, which provided available safety analysis tool for sodium pool fire accidents in sodium-cooled fast reactor, was well demonstrated with experimental data

  7. State-of-the-art review of sodium fire analysis and current notions for improvements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tasi, S.S.

    1978-01-01

    Sodium releases from postulated pipe ruptures, as well as failures of sodium handling equipment in liquid metal fast breeder reactors, may lead to substantial pressure-temperature transients in the sodium system cells, as well as in the reactor containment building. Sodium fire analyses are currently performed with analytical tools, such as the SPRAY, SOMIX, SPOOL-FIRE and SOFIRE-II codes. A review and evaluation of the state-of-the-art in sodium fire analysis is presented, and suggestions for further improvements are made. This work is based, in part, on studies made at Brookhaven National Laboratory during the past several years in the areas of model development and improvement associated with the accident analyses of LMFBRs

  8. Analysis of human reliability in the APS of fire. Application of NUREG-1921; Analisis de Fiabilidad Humana en el APS de Incendios. Aplicacion del NUREG-1921

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Perez Torres, J. L.; Celaya Meler, M. A.

    2014-07-01

    An analysis of human reliability in a probabilistic safety analysis (APS) of fire aims to identify, describe, analyze and quantify, in a manner traceable, human actions that can affect the mitigation of an initiating event produced by a fire. (Author)

  9. An interoperable standard system for the automatic generation and publication of the fire risk maps based on Fire Weather Index (FWI)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Julià Selvas, Núria; Ninyerola Casals, Miquel

    2015-04-01

    It has been implemented an automatic system to predict the fire risk in the Principality of Andorra, a small country located in the eastern Pyrenees mountain range, bordered by Catalonia and France, due to its location, his landscape is a set of a rugged mountains with an average elevation around 2000 meters. The system is based on the Fire Weather Index (FWI) that consists on different components, each one, measuring a different aspect of the fire danger calculated by the values of the weather variables at midday. CENMA (Centre d'Estudis de la Neu i de la Muntanya d'Andorra) has a network around 10 automatic meteorological stations, located in different places, peeks and valleys, that measure weather data like relative humidity, wind direction and speed, surface temperature, rainfall and snow cover every ten minutes; this data is sent daily and automatically to the system implemented that will be processed in the way to filter incorrect measurements and to homogenizer measurement units. Then this data is used to calculate all components of the FWI at midday and for the level of each station, creating a database with the values of the homogeneous measurements and the FWI components for each weather station. In order to extend and model this data to all Andorran territory and to obtain a continuous map, an interpolation method based on a multiple regression with spline residual interpolation has been implemented. This interpolation considerer the FWI data as well as other relevant predictors such as latitude, altitude, global solar radiation and sea distance. The obtained values (maps) are validated using a cross-validation leave-one-out method. The discrete and continuous maps are rendered in tiled raster maps and published in a web portal conform to Web Map Service (WMS) Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) standard. Metadata and other reference maps (fuel maps, topographic maps, etc) are also available from this geoportal.

  10. Climate change effects on wildland fire risk in the Northeastern and Great Lakes states predicted by a downscaled multi-model ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerr, Gaige Hunter; DeGaetano, Arthur T.; Stoof, Cathelijne R.; Ward, Daniel

    2018-01-01

    This study is among the first to investigate wildland fire risk in the Northeastern and the Great Lakes states under a changing climate. We use a multi-model ensemble (MME) of regional climate models from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) together with the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System (CFFWIS) to understand changes in wildland fire risk through differences between historical simulations and future projections. Our results are relatively homogeneous across the focus region and indicate modest increases in the magnitude of fire weather indices (FWIs) during northern hemisphere summer. The most pronounced changes occur in the date of the initialization of CFFWIS and peak of the wildland fire season, which in the future are trending earlier in the year, and in the significant increases in the length of high-risk episodes, defined by the number of consecutive days with FWIs above the current 95th percentile. Further analyses show that these changes are most closely linked to expected changes in the focus region's temperature and precipitation. These findings relate to the current understanding of particulate matter vis-à-vis wildfires and have implications for human health and local and regional changes in radiative forcings. When considering current fire management strategies which could be challenged by increasing wildland fire risk, fire management agencies could adapt new strategies to improve awareness, prevention, and resilience to mitigate potential impacts to critical infrastructure and population.

  11. Wildland fire, risk, and recovery: results of a national survey with regional and racial perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    J. Michael Bowker; Siew Hoon Lim; H. Ken Cordell; Gary T. Green; Sandra Rideout-Hanzak; Cassandra Y. Johnson

    2008-01-01

    We used a national household survey to examine knowledge, attitudes, and preferences pertaining to wildland fire. First, we present nationwide results and trends. Then, we examine opinions across region and race. Despite some regional variation, respondents are fairly consistent in their beliefs about assuming personal responsibility for living in fire-prone areas and...

  12. Evaluating potential changes in fire risk from Eucalyptus plantings in the Southern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott L. Goodrick; John A. Stanturf

    2012-01-01

    Renewed interest in short-rotation woody crops for bioenergy and bioproducts has prompted a reevaluation of the Eucalyptus species for the southern United States. One question that arises about the potential effects of introducing a nonnative species is what effect will there be on fire behavior. Our approximate answer based on modeling fire behavior...

  13. Compound depositions from the BOPEC fires on Bonaire : Measurements and risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van de Meent D; Bodar CWM; Boshuis ME; de Groot AC; de Zwart D; Hoffer SM; Janssen PJCM; Mooij M; de Groot GM; Peijnenburg WJGM; Verbruggen EMJ; IMG; SEC; LER; mev

    2011-01-01

    Some polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and some perfluorinated fire fighting foam constituents (especially perfluorooctane sulfonate, PFOS) were found in deposited soot and in water on Bonaire due to the BOPEC oil depot fires in September 2010. The soot deposition did not result in elevated

  14. Review of methods for modelling forest fire risk and hazard | Yakubu ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    At global scale, fire is the most generalized means of transforming tropical forest in agricultural areas, and it has severe impacts on global atmospheric chemistry. Fire is a natural factor in many climates with high levels of vegetation stress. However, changes in traditional land use such as hunting, charcoal production, ...

  15. No evidence of increased fire risk due to agricultural land abandonment in Sardinia (Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Ricotta

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Different land cover types are related to different levels of fire hazard through their vegetation structure and fuel load composition. Therefore, understanding the relationships between landscape changes and fire behavior is of crucial importance for developing adequate fire fighting and fire prevention strategies for a changing world. In the last decades the abandonment of agricultural lands and pastoral activities has been the major driver of landscape transformations in Mediterranean Europe. As agricultural land abandonment typically promotes an increase in plant biomass (fuel load, a number of authors argue that vegetation succession in abandoned fields and pastures is expected to increase fire hazard. In this short paper, based on 28 493 fires in Sardinia (Italy in the period 2001–2010, we show that there is no evidence of increased probability of fire ignition in abandoned rural areas. To the contrary, in Sardinia the decreased human impact associated with agricultural land abandonment leads to a statistically significant decrease of fire ignition probability.

  16. El Nino and Health Risks from Landscape Fire Emissions in Southeast Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marlier, Miriam E.; Defries, Ruth S.; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Kinney, Patrick L.; Randerson, James T.; Shindell, Drew T.; Chen, Yang; Faluvegi, Greg

    2013-01-01

    Emissions from landscape fires affect both climate and air quality. Here, we combine satellite-derived fire estimates and atmospheric modelling to quantify health effects from fire emissions in southeast Asia from 1997 to 2006. This region has large interannual variability in fire activity owing to coupling between El Nino-induced droughts and anthropogenic land-use change. We show that during strong El Nino years, fires contribute up to 200 micrograms per cubic meter and 50 ppb in annual average fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone surface concentrations near fire sources, respectively. This corresponds to a fire contribution of 200 additional days per year that exceed the World Health Organization 50 micrograms per cubic metre 24-hr PM(sub 2.5) interim target and an estimated 10,800 (6,800-14,300)-person (approximately 2 percent) annual increase in regional adult cardiovascular mortality. Our results indicate that reducing regional deforestation and degradation fires would improve public health along with widely established benefits from reducing carbon emissions, preserving biodiversity and maintaining ecosystem services.

  17. Management adaptation to fires in the wildland-urban risk areas in Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gema Herrero-Corral

    2013-01-01

    Forest fires not only cause damage to ecosystems but also result in major socio-economic losses and in the worst cases loss of human life. Specifically, the incidence of fires in the overlapping areas between building structures and forest vegetation (wildland-urban interface, WUI) generates highly-complex emergencies due to the presence of people and goods....

  18. Probabilistic risk assessment for back-end facilities: Improving the treatment of fire and explosion scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sunman, C.R.J.; Campbell, R.J.; Wakem, M.J.

    1996-01-01

    The nuclear reprocessing facilities at Sellafield are a key component of the International business of BNFL. The operations carried out at the site extend from the receipt and storage of irradiated fuel, chemical reprocessing, plutonium and uranium finishing, through mixed oxide fuel production. Additionally there are a wide range of supporting processes including solid waste encapsulation, vitrification, liquid waste evaporation and treatment. Decommissioning of the site's older facilities is also proceeding. The comprehensive range of these activities requires that the safety assessment team keeps up to date with developments in the field, as well as conducting and sponsoring appropriate research into methodologies and modelling in order to deliver a cost effective, timely service. This paper will review the role of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) in safety cases for operations at Sellafield and go on to describe some areas of PRA methodology development in the UK and in which BNFL is a contributor. Finally the paper will summarise some specific areas of methodology development associated with improving the modelling of fire and explosion hazards which are specific to BNFL. (author)

  19. Back to Basics: Preventing Surgical Fires.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spruce, Lisa

    2016-09-01

    When fires occur in the OR, they are devastating and potentially fatal to both patients and health care workers. Fires can be prevented by understanding the fire triangle and methods of reducing fire risk, conducting fire risk assessments, and knowing how to respond if a fire occurs. This Back to Basics article addresses the basics of fire prevention and the steps that can be taken to prevent fires from occurring. Copyright © 2016 AORN, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Fire prevention in industrial installations presenting a risk for man and environment (ICPE); La prevention des incendies dans les ICPE: une exigence d'amelioration permanente

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moche, L. [Ministere de l' Amenagement du Territoire et de l' Environnement, Direction de la Prevention des Pollutions et des Risques, 75 - Paris (France)

    2000-09-01

    The most likely accident in industrial installations is fire. 59 out of 100 accidents reported in 1999 describe a fire outbreak, the fire is either the initiating cause of the accident or the form into which the event eventually evolves. This article briefly describes the why and the wherefore of French regulations on fire prevention in installations presenting a risk for man and environment. The French system is based on the responsibility of the plant operator and on the result of inspections performed by authorities to check the conformity of the installation with current regulations. (A.C.)

  1. Comparing resource values at risk from wildfires with Forest Service fire suppression expenditures: Examples from 2003 western Montana wildfire season

    Science.gov (United States)

    David Calkin; Kevin Hyde; Krista Gebert; Greg Jones

    2005-01-01

    Determining the economic effectiveness of wildfire suppression activities is complicated by difficulties in identifying the area that would have burned and the associated resource value changes had suppression resources not been employed. We developed a case study using break-even analysis for two large wildfires from the 2003 fire season in western Montana -- the...

  2. What is a risk. [Quantitative risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schoen, G [Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt, Braunschweig (Germany, F.R.)

    1979-02-01

    The following article is a revised version of a lecture given by the author during the VDE meeting 'Technical Expert Activities' in Brunswick. First of all, the concept of 'risk' is discussed which leads to a probability scale which then permits a definition of the 'justifiable risk' as the boundary between 'hazard' and 'safety'. The boundary is quantified indirectly from laws, regulations, instructions, etc. to the 'Technological rules' for special fields of application by minimum requirement data. These viewpoints described in detail are not only of substantial significance for the creation of safety regulations but also for their application and consequently for jurisdiction.

  3. Loft fire protection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    White, E.R.; Jensen, J.D.

    1980-01-01

    Quantified criteria that was developed and applied to provide in-depth fire protection for the Loss of Fluid Test (LOFT) Facility are presented. The presentation describes the evolution process that elevated the facility's fire protection from minimal to that required for a highly protected risk or improved risk. Explored are some infrequently used fire protection measures that are poorly understood outside the fire protection profession

  4. A case-crossover analysis of forest fire haze events and mortality in Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahani, Mazrura; Zainon, Nurul Ashikin; Wan Mahiyuddin, Wan Rozita; Latif, Mohd Talib; Hod, Rozita; Khan, Md Firoz; Tahir, Norhayati Mohd; Chan, Chang-Chuan

    2014-10-01

    The Southeast Asian (SEA) haze events due to forest fires are recurrent and affect Malaysia, particularly the Klang Valley region. The aim of this study is to examine the risk of haze days due to biomass burning in Southeast Asia on daily mortality in the Klang Valley region between 2000 and 2007. We used a case-crossover study design to model the effect of haze based on PM10 concentration to the daily mortality. The time-stratified control sampling approach was used, adjusted for particulate matter (PM10) concentrations, time trends and meteorological influences. Based on time series analysis of PM10 and backward trajectory analysis, haze days were defined when daily PM10 concentration exceeded 100 μg/m3. The results showed a total of 88 haze days were identified in the Klang Valley region during the study period. A total of 126,822 cases of death were recorded for natural mortality where respiratory mortality represented 8.56% (N = 10,854). Haze events were found to be significantly associated with natural and respiratory mortality at various lags. For natural mortality, haze events at lagged 2 showed significant association with children less than 14 years old (Odd Ratio (OR) = 1.41; 95% Confidence Interval (CI) = 1.01-1.99). Respiratory mortality was significantly associated with haze events for all ages at lagged 0 (OR = 1.19; 95% CI = 1.02-1.40). Age-and-gender-specific analysis showed an incremental risk of respiratory mortality among all males and elderly males above 60 years old at lagged 0 (OR = 1.34; 95% CI = 1.09-1.64 and OR = 1.41; 95% CI = 1.09-1.84 respectively). Adult females aged 15-59 years old were found to be at highest risk of respiratory mortality at lagged 5 (OR = 1.66; 95% CI = 1.03-1.99). This study clearly indicates that exposure to haze events showed immediate and delayed effects on mortality.

  5. Probabilistic inhalation risk assessment due to radioactivity released from coal fired thermal power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tiwari, M.; Ajmal, P.Y.; Bhangare, R.C.; Sahu, S.K.; Pandit, G.G.

    2014-01-01

    This paper deals with assessment of radiological risk to the general public around in the neighborhood of a 1000 MWe coal-based thermal power plant. We have used Monte Carlo simulation for characterization of uncertainty in inhalation risk due to radionuclide escaping from the stack of thermal power plant. Monte Carlo simulation treats parameters as random variables bound to a given probabilistic distribution to evaluate the distribution of the resulting output. Risk assessment is the process that estimates the likelihood of occurrence of adverse effects to humans and ecological receptors as a result of exposure to hazardous chemical, radiation, and/or biological agents. Quantitative risk characterization involves evaluating exposure estimates against a benchmark of toxicity, such as a cancer slope factor. Risk is calculated by multiplying the carcinogenic slope factor (SF) of the radionuclide by the dose an individual receives. The collective effective doses to the population living in the neighborhood of coal-based thermal power plant were calculated using Gaussian plume dispersion model. Monte Carlo Analysis is the most widely used probabilistic method in risk assessment. The MCA technique treats any uncertain parameter as random variable that obeys a given probabilistic distribution. This technique is widely used for analyzing probabilistic uncertainty. In MCA computer simulation are used to combine multiple probability distributions associated with the dose and SF depicted in risk equation. Thus we get a probabilistic distribution for the risk

  6. Regulatory analysis for the resolution of generic issue 57: Effects of Fire Protection System Actuation on Safety-Related Equipment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woods, H.W.

    1993-10-01

    Actuation of Fire Protection Systems (FPS) in Nuclear Power Plants have resulted in adverse interactions with equipment important to safety. Precursor operational experience has shown that 37% of all FPS actuations damaged some equipment, and 20% of all FPS actuations have resulted in a plant transient and reactor trip. On an average 0.17 FPS actuations per reactor year have been experienced in nuclear power plants in this country. This report presents the regulatory analysis for GI-57, ''Effects of Fire Protection System Actuation on Safety-Related Equipment''. The risk reduction estimates, cost/benefit analyses, and other insights gained during this effort have shown that implementation of the recommendations contained in this report can significantly reduce risk, and that these improvements can be warranted in accordance with the backfit rule, 10 CFR 50.109(a)(3). However, plant specific analyses are required in order to identify such improvements. Generic analyses can not serve to identify improvements that could be warranted for individual, specific plants. Plant specific analyses of the type needed for this purpose are underway as part of the Individual Plant Examination of External Events (IPEEE) program

  7. Fire Hazard Analysis for the Cold Vacuum Drying facility (CVD) Facility

    CERN Document Server

    Singh, G

    2000-01-01

    The CVDF is a nonreactor nuclear facility that will process the Spent Nuclear Fuels (SNF) presently stored in the 105-KE and 105-KW SNF storage basins. Multi-canister overpacks (MCOs) will be loaded (filled) with K Basin fuel transported to the CVDF. The MCOs will be processed at the CVDF to remove free water from the fuel cells (packages). Following processing at the CVDF, the MCOs will be transported to the CSB for interim storage until a long-term storage solution can be implemented. This operation is expected to start in November 2000. A Fire Hazard Analysis (FHA) is required for all new facilities and all nonreactor nuclear facilities, in accordance with U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Order 5480.7A, Fire Protection. This FHA has been prepared in accordance with DOE 5480.7A and HNF-PRO-350, Fire Hazard Analysis Requirements. Additionally, requirements or criteria contained in DOE, Richland Operations Office (RL) RL Implementing Directive (RLID) 5480.7, Fire Protection, or other DOE documentation are cite...

  8. PREFER: a European service providing forest fire management support products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eftychidis, George; Laneve, Giovanni; Ferrucci, Fabrizio; Sebastian Lopez, Ana; Lourenco, Louciano; Clandillon, Stephen; Tampellini, Lucia; Hirn, Barbara; Diagourtas, Dimitris; Leventakis, George

    2015-06-01

    PREFER is a Copernicus project of the EC-FP7 program which aims developing spatial information products that may support fire prevention and burned areas restoration decisions and establish a relevant web-based regional service for making these products available to fire management stakeholders. The service focuses to the Mediterranean region, where fire risk is high and damages from wildfires are quite important, and develop its products for pilot areas located in Spain, Portugal, Italy, France and Greece. PREFER aims to allow fire managers to have access to online resources, which shall facilitate fire prevention measures, fire hazard and risk assessment, estimation of fire impact and damages caused by wildfire as well as support monitoring of post-fire regeneration and vegetation recovery. It makes use of a variety of products delivered by space borne sensors and develop seasonal and daily products using multi-payload, multi-scale and multi-temporal analysis of EO data. The PREFER Service portfolio consists of two main suite of products. The first refers to mapping products for supporting decisions concerning the Preparedness/Prevention Phase (ISP Service). The service delivers Fuel, Hazard and Fire risk maps for this purpose. Furthermore the PREFER portfolio includes Post-fire vegetation recovery, burn scar maps, damage severity and 3D fire damage assessment products in order to support relative assessments required in context of the Recovery/Reconstruction Phase (ISR Service) of fire management.

  9. Global sensitivity analysis using emulators, with an example analysis of large fire plumes based on FDS simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kelsey, Adrian [Health and Safety Laboratory, Harpur Hill, Buxton (United Kingdom)

    2015-12-15

    Uncertainty in model predictions of the behaviour of fires is an important issue in fire safety analysis in nuclear power plants. A global sensitivity analysis can help identify the input parameters or sub-models that have the most significant effect on model predictions. However, to perform a global sensitivity analysis using Monte Carlo sampling might require thousands of simulations to be performed and therefore would not be practical for an analysis based on a complex fire code using computational fluid dynamics (CFD). An alternative approach is to perform a global sensitivity analysis using an emulator. Gaussian process emulators can be built using a limited number of simulations and once built a global sensitivity analysis can be performed on an emulator, rather than using simulations directly. Typically reliable emulators can be built using ten simulations for each parameter under consideration, therefore allowing a global sensitivity analysis to be performed, even for a complex computer code. In this paper we use an example of a large scale pool fire to demonstrate an emulator based approach to global sensitivity analysis. In that work an emulator based global sensitivity analysis was used to identify the key uncertain model inputs affecting the entrainment rates and flame heights in large Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) fire plumes. The pool fire simulations were performed using the Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) software. Five model inputs were varied: the fire diameter, burn rate, radiative fraction, computational grid cell size and choice of turbulence model. The ranges used for these parameters in the analysis were determined from experiment and literature. The Gaussian process emulators used in the analysis were created using 127 FDS simulations. The emulators were checked for reliability, and then used to perform a global sensitivity analysis and uncertainty analysis. Large-scale ignited releases of LNG on water were performed by Sandia National

  10. Risk analysis in radiosurgery treatments using risk matrices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delgado, J. M.; Sanchez Cayela, C.; Ramirez, M. L.; Perez, A.

    2011-01-01

    The aim of this study is the risk analysis process stereotactic single-dose radiotherapy and evaluation of those initiating events that lead to increased risk and a possible solution in the design of barriers.

  11. HSE assessment of explosion risk analysis in offshore safety cases

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brighton, P.W.M.; Fearnley, P.J.; Brearley, I.G. [Health and Safety Executive, Bootle (United Kingdom). Offshore Safety Div.

    1995-12-31

    In the past two years HSE has assessed around 250 Safety Cases for offshore oil and gas installations, building up a unique overview of the current state of the art on fire and explosion risk assessment. This paper reviews the explosion risk methods employed, focusing on the aspects causing most difficulty for assessment and acceptance of Safety Cases. Prediction of overpressures in offshore explosions has been intensively researched in recent years but the justification of the means of prevention, control and mitigation of explosions often depends on much additional analysis of the frequency and damage potential of explosions. This involves a number of factors, the five usually considered being: leak sizes; gas dispersion; ignition probabilities; the frequency distribution of explosion strength; and the prediction of explosion damage. Sources of major uncertainty in these factors and their implications for practical risk management decisions are discussed. (author)

  12. Synergy between land use and climate change increases future fire risk in Amazon forests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Le Page

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Tropical forests have been a permanent feature of the Amazon basin for at least 55 million years, yet climate change and land use threaten the forest's future over the next century. Understory forest fires, which are common under the current climate in frontier forests, may accelerate Amazon forest losses from climate-driven dieback and deforestation. Far from land use frontiers, scarce fire ignitions and high moisture levels preclude significant burning, yet projected climate and land use changes may increase fire activity in these remote regions. Here, we used a fire model specifically parameterized for Amazon understory fires to examine the interactions between anthropogenic activities and climate under current and projected conditions. In a scenario of low mitigation efforts with substantial land use expansion and climate change – Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5 – projected understory fires increase in frequency and duration, burning 4–28 times more forest in 2080–2100 than during 1990–2010. In contrast, active climate mitigation and land use contraction in RCP4.5 constrain the projected increase in fire activity to 0.9–5.4 times contemporary burned area. Importantly, if climate mitigation is not successful, land use contraction alone is very effective under low to moderate climate change, but does little to reduce fire activity under the most severe climate projections. These results underscore the potential for a fire-driven transformation of Amazon forests if recent regional policies for forest conservation are not paired with global efforts to mitigate climate change.

  13. Concentration of heavy metals and trace elements in soils, waters and vegetables and assessment of health risk in the vicinity of a lignite-fired power plant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Noli, Fotini, E-mail: noli@chem.auth.gr; Tsamos, Panagiotis, E-mail: pktsamos@chem.auth.gr

    2016-09-01

    The pollution of agricultural soils, waters and products in the regions of lignite mines and fired power plants is of great importance. The concentration of As, Βa, Co, Cr, Sr, Sc, Th, U, Zn in soils and waters in the vicinity of a lignite-fired power plant in Northern Greece was determined using Instrumental Neutron Activation Analysis. The determination frequency was every three months during a period of one year in order to evaluate the seasonal impact of the pollution to the environment. Measurements were performed in three locations around the lignite mine as well as in one reference location at a certain distance from the mine. The results, which exhibited a slight seasonal variation, were compared, where possible, with literature values from other countries. The obtained data in most of the cases did not exceed the normal levels and indicated that the investigated area was only slightly contaminated. The concentration of heavy and trace metals was also measured in three common garden crops (tomato, cucumber and parsley) grown in this area. The calculated transfer factors (TF) from soil to vegetables and health risk quotients (HQ) do not denote a health risk. - Highlights: • Seasonal variation of heavy metals concentrations in soils and waters in a lignite mining area. • The elevated concentrations detected by NAA indicating minor contamination of the studied area. • Determination of minor and trace elements in vegetables. • The transfer factors and health risk quotients indicating a possible slight contamination in the area.

  14. Concentration of heavy metals and trace elements in soils, waters and vegetables and assessment of health risk in the vicinity of a lignite-fired power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noli, Fotini; Tsamos, Panagiotis

    2016-01-01

    The pollution of agricultural soils, waters and products in the regions of lignite mines and fired power plants is of great importance. The concentration of As, Βa, Co, Cr, Sr, Sc, Th, U, Zn in soils and waters in the vicinity of a lignite-fired power plant in Northern Greece was determined using Instrumental Neutron Activation Analysis. The determination frequency was every three months during a period of one year in order to evaluate the seasonal impact of the pollution to the environment. Measurements were performed in three locations around the lignite mine as well as in one reference location at a certain distance from the mine. The results, which exhibited a slight seasonal variation, were compared, where possible, with literature values from other countries. The obtained data in most of the cases did not exceed the normal levels and indicated that the investigated area was only slightly contaminated. The concentration of heavy and trace metals was also measured in three common garden crops (tomato, cucumber and parsley) grown in this area. The calculated transfer factors (TF) from soil to vegetables and health risk quotients (HQ) do not denote a health risk. - Highlights: • Seasonal variation of heavy metals concentrations in soils and waters in a lignite mining area. • The elevated concentrations detected by NAA indicating minor contamination of the studied area. • Determination of minor and trace elements in vegetables. • The transfer factors and health risk quotients indicating a possible slight contamination in the area.

  15. Application of the NUREG/CR-6850 EPRI/NRC Fire PRA Methodology to a DOE Facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elicson, Tom; Harwood, Bentley; Yorg, Richard; Lucek, Heather; Bouchard, Jim; Jukkola, Ray; Phan, Duan

    2011-01-01

    The application NUREG/CR-6850 EPRI/NRC fire PRA methodology to DOE facility presented several challenges. This paper documents the process and discusses several insights gained during development of the fire PRA. A brief review of the tasks performed is provided with particular focus on the following: Tasks 5 and 14: Fire-induced risk model and fire risk quantification. A key lesson learned was to begin model development and quantification as early as possible in the project using screening values and simplified modeling if necessary. Tasks 3 and 9: Fire PRA cable selection and detailed circuit failure analysis. In retrospect, it would have been beneficial to perform the model development and quantification in 2 phases with detailed circuit analysis applied during phase 2. This would have allowed for development of a robust model and quantification earlier in the project and would have provided insights into where to focus the detailed circuit analysis efforts. Tasks 8 and 11: Scoping fire modeling and detailed fire modeling. More focus should be placed on detailed fire modeling and less focus on scoping fire modeling. This was the approach taken for the fire PRA. Task 14: Fire risk quantification. Typically, multiple safe shutdown (SSD) components fail during a given fire scenario. Therefore dependent failure analysis is critical to obtaining a meaningful fire risk quantification. Dependent failure analysis for the fire PRA presented several challenges which will be discussed in the full paper.

  16. Accounting for fuel price risk when comparing renewable togas-fired generation: the role of forward natural gas prices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

    2004-07-17

    Unlike natural gas-fired generation, renewable generation (e.g., from wind, solar, and geothermal power) is largely immune to fuel price risk. If ratepayers are rational and value long-term price stability, then--contrary to common practice--any comparison of the levelized cost of renewable to gas-fired generation should be based on a hedged gas price input, rather than an uncertain gas price forecast. This paper compares natural gas prices that can be locked in through futures, swaps, and physical supply contracts to contemporaneous long-term forecasts of spot gas prices. We find that from 2000-2003, forward gas prices for terms of 2-10 years have been considerably higher than most contemporaneous long-term gas price forecasts. This difference is striking, and implies that comparisons between renewable and gas-fired generation based on these forecasts over this period have arguably yielded results that are biased in favor of gas-fired generation.

  17. Accounting for fuel price risk when comparing renewable to gas-fired generation: the role of forward natural gas prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

    2006-01-01

    Unlike natural gas-fired generation, renewable generation (e.g., from wind, solar, and geothermal power) is largely immune to fuel price risk. If ratepayers are rational and value long-term price stability, then-contrary to common practice-any comparison of the levelized cost of renewable to gas-fired generation should be based on a hedged gas price input, rather than an uncertain gas price forecast. This paper compares natural gas prices that can be locked in through futures, swaps, and physical supply contracts to contemporaneous long-term forecasts of spot gas prices. We find that from 2000 to 2003, forward gas prices for terms of 2-10 years have been considerably higher than most contemporaneous long-term gas price forecasts. This difference is striking, and implies that comparisons between renewable and gas-fired generation based on these forecasts over this period have arguably yielded results that are biased in favor of gas-fired generation

  18. Failure analysis of fire resistant fluid (FRF piping used in hydraulic control system at oil-fired thermal power generation plant

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Akram

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available This is a case study regarding frequent forced outages in an oil-fired power generating station due to failure of fire resistant fluid (FRF piping of material ASTM A-304. This analysis was done to find out the most probable cause of failure and to rectify the problem. Methods for finding and analyzing the cracks include nondestructive testing techniques such as visual testing (VT and dye penetrant testing (PT along with that periodic monitoring after rectification of problem. The study revealed that pitting and pit to crack transitions were formed in stainless steel piping containing high pressure (system pressure 115 bars fire resistant fluid. However, after replacement of piping the pitting and cracking reoccurred. It was observed that due to possible exposure to chlorinated moisture in surrounding environment pitting was formed which then transformed into cracks. The research work discussed in this paper illustrates the procedure used in detection of the problem and measures taken to solve the problem.

  19. RCRA Facility Investigation/Remedial Investigation Report with Baseline Risk Assessment for the Fire Department Hose Training Facility (904-113G)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Palmer, E. [Westinghouse Savannah River Company, AIKEN, SC (United States)

    1997-04-01

    This report documents the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) Facility Investigation/Remedial Investigation/Baseline Risk Assessment (RFI/RI/BRA) for the Fire Department Hose Training Facility (FDTF) (904-113G).

  20. Risk Analysis Group annual progress report 1984

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1985-06-01

    The activities of the Risk Analysis Group at Risoe during 1984 are presented. These include descriptions in some detail of work on general development topics and risk analysis performed as contractor. (author)