WorldWideScience

Sample records for risk analysis estudo

  1. Products modeling for application in risk analysis, reducing uncertainties; Modelagem de produtos em estudos de risco, reduzindo incertezas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sodre, Carlos F; Mendes, Renato F; Saker, Leonardo F [PETROBRAS Engenharia, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); br, renatomendes@petrobras com; Oliveira, Edimilson J; Aguiar, Paulo Cesar; Pinto, Ulysses Brandao; Badaro, Sonia M [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Centro de Pesquisas (CENPES)

    2004-07-01

    Accidental repercussions due to hydrocarbon releases are required on risk analysis studies and contingency plans. The physical effects estimation from releases on vessels or pipelines through out orifices and the estimation of limits for vapor cloud require several modeling, such us: pseudo-mixture estimation, source calculation and dispersion models. These models require physical and chemical properties of the real products in study, so a deep analysis of the original product and the recommended mixtures is demanded. This paper assesses some PETROBRAS refined products and defines pseudo-mixture in order to emulate the physical and chemical properties, for these original products. Finally, it was suggested mixture profiles for some products such as, gasoline, diesel and crude (light), to be applied in next risk studies. (author)

  2. Aortic pulse wave velocity and HeartSCORE: improving cardiovascular risk stratification. a sub-analysis of the EDIVA (Estudo de DIstensibilidade VAscular) project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira, T; Maldonado, J; Polónia, J; Silva, J A; Morais, J; Rodrigues, T; Marques, M

    2014-04-01

    HeartSCORE is a tool for assessing cardiovascular risk, basing its estimates on the relative weight of conventional cardiovascular risk factors. However, new markers of cardiovascular risk have been identified, such as aortic pulse wave velocity (PWV). The purpose of this study was to evaluate to what extent the incorporation of PWV in HeartSCORE increases its discriminative power of major cardiovascular events (MACE). This study is a sub-analysis of the EDIVA project, which is a prospective cohort, multicenter and observational study involving 2200 individuals of Portuguese nationality (1290 men and 910 women) aged between 18 and 91 years (mean 46.33 ± 13.76 years), with annual measurements of PWV (Complior). Only participants above 35 years old were included in the present re-analysis, resulting in a population of 1709 participants. All MACE - death, cerebrovascular accident, coronary accidents (coronary heart disease), peripheral arterial disease and renal failure - were recorded. During a mean follow-up period of 21.42 ± 10.76 months, there were 47 non-fatal MACE (2.1% of the sample). Cardiovascular risk was estimated in all patients based on the HeartSCORE risk factors. For the analysis, the refitted HeartSCORE and PWV were divided into three risk categories. The event-free survival at 2 years was 98.6%, 98.0% and 96.1%, respectively in the low-, intermediate- and high-risk categories of HeartSCORE (log-rank p factor model. The C statistics improved from 0.69 to 0.78 (adding PWV, p = 0.005). The net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) were also determined, and indicated further evidence of improvements in discrimination of the outcome when including PWV in the risk-factor model (NRI = 0.265; IDI = 0.012). The results clearly illustrate the benefits of integrating PWV in the risk assessment strategies, as advocated by HeartSCORE, insofar as it contributes to a better discriminative capacity of global

  3. Risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baron, J.H.; Nunez McLeod, J.; Rivera, S.S.

    1997-01-01

    This book contains a selection of research works performed in the CEDIAC Institute (Cuyo National University) in the area of Risk Analysis, with specific orientations to the subjects of uncertainty and sensitivity studies, software reliability, severe accident modeling, etc. This volume presents important material for all those researches who want to have an insight in the risk analysis field, as a tool to solution several problems frequently found in the engineering and applied sciences field, as well as for the academic teachers who want to keep up to date, including the new developments and improvements continuously arising in this field [es

  4. Risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Correa Lizarazu, X.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation Colombia risk evaluation experiences, sanitarian regulations evolution, chemical dangers food, biological dangers food, codex alimentarius, trade, industrial effects, dangers identification, data collection and risk profile

  5. Information security risk analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Peltier, Thomas R

    2001-01-01

    Effective Risk AnalysisQualitative Risk AnalysisValue AnalysisOther Qualitative MethodsFacilitated Risk Analysis Process (FRAP)Other Uses of Qualitative Risk AnalysisCase StudyAppendix A: QuestionnaireAppendix B: Facilitated Risk Analysis Process FormsAppendix C: Business Impact Analysis FormsAppendix D: Sample of ReportAppendix E: Threat DefinitionsAppendix F: Other Risk Analysis OpinionsIndex

  6. Foundations of Risk Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Aven, Terje

    2012-01-01

    Foundations of Risk Analysis presents the issues core to risk analysis - understanding what risk means, expressing risk, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real problems. The author provides the readers with the knowledge and basic thinking they require to successfully manage risk and uncertainty to support decision making. This updated edition reflects recent developments on risk and uncertainty concepts, representations and treatment. New material in Foundations of Risk Analysis includes:An up to date presentation of how to understand, define and

  7. Observations on risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, W.A. Jr.

    1979-11-01

    This paper briefly describes WASH 1400 and the Lewis report. It attempts to define basic concepts such as risk and risk analysis, common mode failure, and rare event. Several probabilistic models which go beyond the WASH 1400 methodology are introduced; the common characteristic of these models is that they recognize explicitly that risk analysis is time dependent whereas WASH 1400 takes a per demand failure rate approach which obscures the important fact that accidents are time related. Further, the presentation of a realistic risk analysis should recognize that there are various risks which compete with one another for the lives of the individuals at risk. A way of doing this is suggested

  8. Is risk analysis scientific?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansson, Sven Ove; Aven, Terje

    2014-07-01

    This article discusses to what extent risk analysis is scientific in view of a set of commonly used definitions and criteria. We consider scientific knowledge to be characterized by its subject matter, its success in developing the best available knowledge in its fields of study, and the epistemic norms and values that guide scientific investigations. We proceed to assess the field of risk analysis according to these criteria. For this purpose, we use a model for risk analysis in which science is used as a base for decision making on risks, which covers the five elements evidence, knowledge base, broad risk evaluation, managerial review and judgment, and the decision; and that relates these elements to the domains experts and decisionmakers, and to the domains fact-based or value-based. We conclude that risk analysis is a scientific field of study, when understood as consisting primarily of (i) knowledge about risk-related phenomena, processes, events, etc., and (ii) concepts, theories, frameworks, approaches, principles, methods and models to understand, assess, characterize, communicate, and manage risk, in general and for specific applications (the instrumental part). © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  9. Comparative risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niehaus, F.

    1988-01-01

    In this paper, the risks of various energy systems are discussed considering severe accidents analysis, particularly the probabilistic safety analysis, and probabilistic safety criteria, and the applications of these criteria and analysis. The comparative risk analysis has demonstrated that the largest source of risk in every society is from daily small accidents. Nevertheless, we have to be more concerned about severe accidents. The comparative risk analysis of five different energy systems (coal, oil, gas, LWR and STEC (Solar)) for the public has shown that the main sources of risks are coal and oil. The latest comparative risk study of various energy has been conducted in the USA and has revealed that the number of victims from coal is 42 as many than victims from nuclear. A study for severe accidents from hydro-dams in United States has estimated the probability of dam failures at 1 in 10,000 years and the number of victims between 11,000 and 260,000. The average occupational risk from coal is one fatal accident in 1,000 workers/year. The probabilistic safety analysis is a method that can be used to assess nuclear energy risks, and to analyze the severe accidents, and to model all possible accident sequences and consequences. The 'Fault tree' analysis is used to know the probability of failure of the different systems at each point of accident sequences and to calculate the probability of risks. After calculating the probability of failure, the criteria for judging the numerical results have to be developed, that is the quantitative and qualitative goals. To achieve these goals, several systems have been devised by various countries members of AIEA. The probabilistic safety ana-lysis method has been developed by establishing a computer program permit-ting to know different categories of safety related information. 19 tabs. (author)

  10. Information Security Risk Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Peltier, Thomas R

    2010-01-01

    Offers readers with the knowledge and the skill-set needed to achieve a highly effective risk analysis assessment. This title demonstrates how to identify threats and then determine if those threats pose a real risk. It is suitable for industry and academia professionals.

  11. Component of the risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martinez, I.; Campon, G.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation reviews issues like analysis of risk (Codex), management risk, preliminary activities manager, relationship between government and industries, microbiological danger and communication of risk

  12. Unsharpness-risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Preyssl, C.

    1986-01-01

    Safety analysis provides the only tool for evaluation and quantification of rare or hypothetical events leading to system failure. So far probability theory has been used for the fault- and event-tree methodology. The phenomenon of uncertainties constitutes an important aspect in risk analysis. Uncertainties can be classified as originating from 'randomness' or 'fuzziness'. Probability theory addresses randomness only. The use of 'fuzzy set theory' makes it possible to include both types of uncertainty in the mathematical model of risk analysis. Thus the 'fuzzy fault tree' is expressed in 'possibilistic' terms implying a range of simplifications and improvements. 'Human failure' and 'conditionality' can be treated correctly. Only minimum-maximum relations are used to combine the possibility distributions of events. Various event-classifications facilitate the interpretation of the results. The method is demonstrated by application to a TRIGA-research reactor. Uncertainty as an implicit part of 'fuzzy risk' can be quantified explicitly using an 'uncertainty measure'. Based on this the 'degree of relative compliance' with a quantizative safety goal can be defined for a particular risk. The introduction of 'weighting functionals' guarantees the consideration of the importances attached to different parts of the risk exceeding or complying with the standard. The comparison of two reference systems is demonstrated in a case study. It is concluded that any application of the 'fuzzy risk analysis' has to be free of any hypostatization when reducing subjective to objective information. (Author)

  13. Adversarial risk analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Banks, David L; Rios Insua, David

    2015-01-01

    Flexible Models to Analyze Opponent Behavior A relatively new area of research, adversarial risk analysis (ARA) informs decision making when there are intelligent opponents and uncertain outcomes. Adversarial Risk Analysis develops methods for allocating defensive or offensive resources against intelligent adversaries. Many examples throughout illustrate the application of the ARA approach to a variety of games and strategic situations. The book shows decision makers how to build Bayesian models for the strategic calculation of their opponents, enabling decision makers to maximize their expected utility or minimize their expected loss. This new approach to risk analysis asserts that analysts should use Bayesian thinking to describe their beliefs about an opponent's goals, resources, optimism, and type of strategic calculation, such as minimax and level-k thinking. Within that framework, analysts then solve the problem from the perspective of the opponent while placing subjective probability distributions on a...

  14. Systematic review of perceptive studies on nuclear risk; Revisao sistematica de estudos perceptivos sobre risco nuclear

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Freitas, Mariana Gama de

    2014-07-01

    This present work contains the study of risk perception in different areas of interaction. For it was made an analysis using methodology previously recognized and tested: a systematic review in the search for better understanding of the perception of risk in the nuclear area. Through this study it was possible to understand the potential of the systematic review as a tool for information that encompass the perception of risk as a whole. Making it possible to trace parameters to find out why the world's people have an aversion to certain matters relating to nuclear energy. Considering that if you can understand what drives the people has disgust on nuclear area, it is probably possible to create alternatives to remedy this lack of information and knowledge about the area. Causing the population to realize the benefits that nuclear power brings to people. (author)

  15. Environmental risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lima-e-Silva, Pedro Paulo de

    1996-01-01

    The conventional Risk Analysis (RA) relates usually a certain undesired event frequency with its consequences. Such technique is used nowadays in Brazil to analyze accidents and their consequences strictly under the human approach, valuing loss of human equipment, human structures and human lives, without considering the damage caused to natural resources that keep life possible on Earth. This paradigm was developed primarily because of the Homo sapiens' lack of perception upon the natural web needed to sustain his own life. In reality, the Brazilian professionals responsible today for licensing, auditing and inspecting environmental aspects of human activities face huge difficulties in making technical specifications and procedures leading to acceptable levels of impact, furthermore considering the intrinsic difficulties to define those levels. Therefore, in Brazil the RA technique is a weak tool for licensing for many reasons, and of them are its short scope (only accident considerations) and wrong a paradigm (only human direct damages). A paper from the author about the former was already proposed to the 7th International Conference on Environmetrics, past July'96, USP-SP. This one discusses the extension of the risk analysis concept to take into account environmental consequences, transforming the conventional analysis into a broader methodology named here as Environmental Risk Analysis. (author)

  16. Gender and Feminist Studies in Brazil: An Analysis of Revista Estudos Feministas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Debora Diniz

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Revista Estudos Feministas (REF is one of the most important gender and feminist journals in Brazil. This article describes the author background and the subjects of the articles published in REF from 1992 to 2002. It was analysed the title, abstracts and keywords of the articles and the topics of the dossier, totalising 20 editorials, 105 articles and 20 dossiers. The classification and indexation of the material was guided by the controlled vocabulary of the “Tesauro para Estudos de Gênero e sobre Mulheres”, from Fundação Carlos Chagas. The results show that 95% of the authors are women, and that 54% are from Socials Sciences. There are articles in all thematic areas suggested by the Tesauro except on “Science and Technology” and “Education”, with a concentration on the following thematic areas: “Socials Sciences and Culture” (26%, “Language, Literature, Religion and Philosophy” (17% and “History and Social Transformation” (17%. The most discussed topics were in this order: sexual division of work, literary analysis, reproduction, and feminist theory. The analysis of REF suggests that gender and feminist research is a solitary activity, with a few number of articles published in partnership. There is a strong preference for qualitative methodologies (92%. This article aims to facilitate the process of identification some marginal areas in the gender and feminist studies in Brazil, empowering the educational and political work of the journal.

  17. Risk analysis and reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uppuluri, V.R.R.

    1979-01-01

    Mathematical foundations of risk analysis are addressed. The importance of having the same probability space in order to compare different experiments is pointed out. Then the following topics are discussed: consequences as random variables with infinite expectations; the phenomenon of rare events; series-parallel systems and different kinds of randomness that could be imposed on such systems; and the problem of consensus of estimates of expert opinion

  18. Mare Risk Analysis monitor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fuente Prieto, I.; Alonso, P.; Carretero Fernandino, J. A.

    2000-01-01

    The Nuclear Safety Council's requirement that Spanish power plants comply with the requirements of the Maintenance Rule associated with plant risk assessment during power operation, arising from the partial unavailability of systems due to the maintenance activities, has led to need for additional tools to facilitate compliance with said requirements. While the impact on risk produced by individual equipment unavailabilities can easily be evaluated, either qualitatively or quantitatively, the process becomes more complicated when un programmed unavailabilities simultaneously occur in various systems, making it necessary to evaluate their functional impact. It is especially complex in the case of support systems that can affect the functionality of multiple systems. In view of the above, a computer application has been developed that is capable of providing the operator with quick answers based on the specific plant model in order to allow fast risk assessment using the information compiled as part of the Probabilistic Safety Analysis. The paper describes the most important characteristics of this application and the basic design requirements of the MARE Risk Monitor. (Author)

  19. Methods for Risk Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alverbro, Karin

    2010-01-01

    Many decision-making situations today affect humans and the environment. In practice, many such decisions are made without an overall view and prioritise one or other of the two areas. Now and then these two areas of regulation come into conflict, e.g. the best alternative as regards environmental considerations is not always the best from a human safety perspective and vice versa. This report was prepared within a major project with the aim of developing a framework in which both the environmental aspects and the human safety aspects are integrated, and decisions can be made taking both fields into consideration. The safety risks have to be analysed in order to be successfully avoided and one way of doing this is to use different kinds of risk analysis methods. There is an abundance of existing methods to choose from and new methods are constantly being developed. This report describes some of the risk analysis methods currently available for analysing safety and examines the relationships between them. The focus here is mainly on human safety aspects

  20. Probabilistic risk analysis and terrorism risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ezell, Barry Charles; Bennett, Steven P; von Winterfeldt, Detlof; Sokolowski, John; Collins, Andrew J

    2010-04-01

    Since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and the subsequent establishment of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), considerable efforts have been made to estimate the risks of terrorism and the cost effectiveness of security policies to reduce these risks. DHS, industry, and the academic risk analysis communities have all invested heavily in the development of tools and approaches that can assist decisionmakers in effectively allocating limited resources across the vast array of potential investments that could mitigate risks from terrorism and other threats to the homeland. Decisionmakers demand models, analyses, and decision support that are useful for this task and based on the state of the art. Since terrorism risk analysis is new, no single method is likely to meet this challenge. In this article we explore a number of existing and potential approaches for terrorism risk analysis, focusing particularly on recent discussions regarding the applicability of probabilistic and decision analytic approaches to bioterrorism risks and the Bioterrorism Risk Assessment methodology used by the DHS and criticized by the National Academies and others.

  1. International Conference on Risk Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Oliveira, Teresa; Rigas, Alexandros; Gulati, Sneh

    2015-01-01

    This book covers the latest results in the field of risk analysis. Presented topics include probabilistic models in cancer research, models and methods in longevity, epidemiology of cancer risk, engineering reliability and economical risk problems. The contributions of this volume originate from the 5th International Conference on Risk Analysis (ICRA 5). The conference brought together researchers and practitioners working in the field of risk analysis in order to present new theoretical and computational methods with applications in biology, environmental sciences, public health, economics and finance.

  2. MATHEMATICAL RISK ANALYSIS: VIA NICHOLAS RISK MODEL AND BAYESIAN ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anass BAYAGA

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this second part of a two-phased study was to explorethe predictive power of quantitative risk analysis (QRA method andprocess within Higher Education Institution (HEI. The method and process investigated the use impact analysis via Nicholas risk model and Bayesian analysis, with a sample of hundred (100 risk analysts in a historically black South African University in the greater Eastern Cape Province.The first findings supported and confirmed previous literature (KingIII report, 2009: Nicholas and Steyn, 2008: Stoney, 2007: COSA, 2004 that there was a direct relationship between risk factor, its likelihood and impact, certiris paribus. The second finding in relation to either controlling the likelihood or the impact of occurrence of risk (Nicholas risk model was that to have a brighter risk reward, it was important to control the likelihood ofoccurrence of risks as compared with its impact so to have a direct effect on entire University. On the Bayesian analysis, thus third finding, the impact of risk should be predicted along three aspects. These aspects included the human impact (decisions made, the property impact (students and infrastructural based and the business impact. Lastly, the study revealed that although in most business cases, where as business cycles considerably vary dependingon the industry and or the institution, this study revealed that, most impacts in HEI (University was within the period of one academic.The recommendation was that application of quantitative risk analysisshould be related to current legislative framework that affects HEI.

  3. Country risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    David, A.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reports that the oil industry has been an internationally based industry that has been heavily dependent on outside financing sources. Historically, financing came from investment houses that, in most cases, participated in the projects as equity investors. However, investment companies can no longer satisfy the capital requirements of the current high level of exploration and development activities. The current trend is to involve commercial banks on a purely lending basis. Commercial banks, by their nature, are risk averse. In the case of oil and gas exploration and production they are asked to take not only technical risk and price risk but geopolitical risk as well. Methods have been developed by commercial banks to reduce technical and price risks to point which enables them to be comfortable with a loan. However, geopolitical risks are more difficult to assess. The risk associated with many countries are the nationalization of the investment, new tax restrictions, restriction of currency movements, and/or revisions to the production sharing agreements

  4. Risk analysis of Odelouca cofferdam

    OpenAIRE

    Pimenta, L.; Caldeira, L.; Maranha das Neves, E.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we present the risk analysis of Odelouca Cofferdam, using an event tree analysis. The initializing events, failure modes and analysed limit states are discussed based on an influence diagram. The constructed event trees and their interpretation are presented. The obtained risk values are represented in an FN plot superimposed to the acceptability and tolerability risk limits proposed for Portuguese dams. Initially, particular emphasis is placed on the main characteristic...

  5. Campylobacter Risk Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nauta, Maarten

    In several countries quantitative microbiological risk assessments (QMRAs) have been performed for Campylobacter in chicken meat. The models constructed for this purpose provide a good example of the development of QMRA in general and illustrate the diversity of available methods. Despite...... the differences between the models, the most prominent conclusions of the QMRAs are similar. These conclusions for example relate to the large risk of highly contaminated meat products and the insignificance of contamination from Campylobacter positive flocks to negative flocks during slaughter and processing...

  6. Risk analysis: opening the process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, Ph.; Mays, C.

    1998-01-01

    This conference on risk analysis took place in Paris, 11-14 october 1999. Over 200 paper where presented in the seven following sessions: perception; environment and health; persuasive risks; objects and products; personal and collective involvement; assessment and valuation; management. A rational approach to risk analysis has been developed in the three last decades. Techniques for risk assessment have been thoroughly enhanced, risk management approaches have been developed, decision making processes have been clarified, the social dimensions of risk perception and management have been investigated. Nevertheless this construction is being challenged by recent events which reveal how deficits in stakeholder involvement, openness and democratic procedures can undermine risk management actions. Indeed, the global process most components of risk analysis may be radically called into question. Food safety has lately been a prominent issue, but now debates appear, or old debates are revisited in the domains of public health, consumer products safety, waste management, environmental risks, nuclear installations, automobile safety and pollution. To meet the growing pressures for efficiency, openness, accountability, and multi-partner communication in risk analysis, institutional changes are underway in many European countries. However, the need for stakeholders to develop better insight into the process may lead to an evolution of all the components of risks analysis, even in its most (technical' steps. For stakeholders of different professional background, political projects, and responsibilities, risk identification procedures must be rendered understandable, quantitative risk assessment must be intelligible and accommodated in action proposals, ranging from countermeasures to educational programs to insurance mechanisms. Management formats must be open to local and political input and other types of operational feedback. (authors)

  7. Advances in probabilistic risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hardung von Hardung, H.

    1982-01-01

    Probabilistic risk analysis can now look back upon almost a quarter century of intensive development. The early studies, whose methods and results are still referred to occasionally, however, only permitted rough estimates to be made of the probabilities of recognizable accident scenarios, failing to provide a method which could have served as a reference base in calculating the overall risk associated with nuclear power plants. The first truly solid attempt was the Rasmussen Study and, partly based on it, the German Risk Study. In those studies, probabilistic risk analysis has been given a much more precise basis. However, new methodologies have been developed in the meantime, which allow much more informative risk studies to be carried out. They have been found to be valuable tools for management decisions with respect to backfitting, reinforcement and risk limitation. Today they are mainly applied by specialized private consultants and have already found widespread application especially in the USA. (orig.) [de

  8. Introduction of the risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Campon, G.; Martinez, I.

    2013-01-01

    An introduction of risks analysis was given in the exposition which main issues were: food innocuousness, world, regional and national food context,change of paradigms, health definition, risk, codex, standardization, food chain role, trade agreement, codex alimentarius, food transmission diseases cost impact

  9. Hydroproject risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murdock, R.V.; Gulliver, J.S.

    1991-01-01

    Traditionally, economic feasibility studies performed for potential hydropower plant sites have included either no uncertainty or at best an ad hoc value associated with estimated benefits. However, formal methods for analyzing uncertainty do exist and have been outlined in the past. An application of these methods is demonstrated through conversion of a hydropower survey program, HYFEAS, to run on LOTUS 1-2-3, using the add-in software package RISK. In this paper the program principals are outlined and a case study of it's application to a hydropower site is presented

  10. Study of seasonal variation of the gamma radiation at Praia da Areia Preta, Guarapari, Espirito Santo, Brazil: radiometry and risk analysis; Estudo da variacao sazonal dos niveis de radiacao gama na Praia da Areia Preta, Guarapari, Espirito Santo, Brasil: radiometria e analise de risco ambiental

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moura, Jorge Costa de

    2003-07-01

    The objective of this work is the study of the natural gamma radiation at the Areia Preta Beach (APB) in Guarapari, state of Espirito Santo, Brazil. The level of this radiation is dependent on the concentration of the radioactive mineral monazite in the sand. Probable risks of the exposure to gamma radiation at the APB were evaluated by the preliminary environmental risk analysis technique. For this purpose were conducted two annual sets monitoring gamma radiation in the APB every two months and so, acquired the seasonal variation of the radioactive levels. Additional/y was investigated the granulometry of the heavy mineral fraction and also carried out electronic microscopic scanning and radiometric age dating of the monazites of the APB, the mineral separation by magnetic susceptibility, and the mineralogic determination of the sediment. In order to gain a more complete picture of the seasonal variation, and, consequently, of the risk of exposure to ionizing radiation at the APB, the radiometric variation was also studied at some other beaches in the same region. The results indicate that the highest radiometric values are measured in summer and the lowest in winter. The radiometric dating of the monazites from the APB revealed the ages of 475 and 530 Ma. The Preliminary Hazard Analysis indicates a minimum risk of excessive radioactive exposition. It would take a period of approximately 870 years of a beach fully crowded to result in one case of bad consequences due to exposure to gamma radiation. (author)

  11. STOCHASTIC METHODS IN RISK ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimíra OSADSKÁ

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we review basic stochastic methods which can be used to extend state-of-the-art deterministic analytical methods for risk analysis. We can conclude that the standard deterministic analytical methods highly depend on the practical experience and knowledge of the evaluator and therefore, the stochastic methods should be introduced. The new risk analysis methods should consider the uncertainties in input values. We present how large is the impact on the results of the analysis solving practical example of FMECA with uncertainties modelled using Monte Carlo sampling.

  12. ProRisk : risk analysis instrument : developed for William properties

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Doorn, W.H.W.; Egeberg, Ingrid; Hendrickx, Kristoff; Kahramaner, Y.; Masseur, B.; Waijers, Koen; Weglicka, K.A.

    2005-01-01

    This report presents a Risk Analysis Instrument developed for William Properties. Based on the analysis, it appears that the practice of Risk Analysis exists within the organization, yet rather implicit. The Risk Analysis Instrument comes with a package of four components: an activity diagram, a

  13. Common approach of risks analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noviello, L.; Naviglio, A.

    1996-01-01

    Although, following the resolutions of the High German Court, the protection level of the human beings is an objective which can change in time, it is obvious that it is an important point when there is a risk for the population. This is true more particularly for the industrial plants whose possible accidents could affect the population. The accidents risk analysis indicates that there is no conceptual difference between the risks of a nuclear power plant and those of the other industrial plants as chemical plants, the gas distribution system and the hydraulic dams. A legislation analysis induced by the Seveso Directive for the industrial risks give some important indications which should always be followed. This work analyses more particularly the legislative situation in different European countries and identifies some of the most important characteristics. Indeed, for most of the countries, the situation is different and it is a later difficulties source for nuclear power plants. In order to strengthen this reasoning, this paper presents some preliminary results of an analysis of a nuclear power plant following the approach of other industrial plants. In conclusion, it will be necessary to analyse again the risks assessment approach for nuclear power plants because the real protection level of human beings in a country is determined by the less regulated of the dangerous industrial plants existing at the surroundings. (O.M.)

  14. Risk Characterization uncertainties associated description, sensitivity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carrillo, M.; Tovar, M.; Alvarez, J.; Arraez, M.; Hordziejewicz, I.; Loreto, I.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation is about risks to the estimated levels of exposure, uncertainty and variability in the analysis, sensitivity analysis, risks from exposure to multiple substances, formulation of guidelines for carcinogenic and genotoxic compounds and risk subpopulations

  15. Environmental modeling and health risk analysis (ACTS/RISK)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Aral, M. M

    2010-01-01

    ... presents a review of the topics of exposure and health risk analysis. The Analytical Contaminant Transport Analysis System (ACTS) and Health RISK Analysis (RISK) software tools are an integral part of the book and provide computational platforms for all the models discussed herein. The most recent versions of these two softwa...

  16. Credit Risk Evaluation : Modeling - Analysis - Management

    OpenAIRE

    Wehrspohn, Uwe

    2002-01-01

    An analysis and further development of the building blocks of modern credit risk management: -Definitions of default -Estimation of default probabilities -Exposures -Recovery Rates -Pricing -Concepts of portfolio dependence -Time horizons for risk calculations -Quantification of portfolio risk -Estimation of risk measures -Portfolio analysis and portfolio improvement -Evaluation and comparison of credit risk models -Analytic portfolio loss distributions The thesis contributes to the evaluatio...

  17. Risk Analysis in Road Tunnels – Most Important Risk Indicators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berchtold, Florian; Knaust, Christian; Thöns, Sebastian

    2016-01-01

    Methodologies on fire risk analysis in road tunnels consider numerous factors affecting risks (risk indicators) and express the results by risk measures. But only few comprehensive studies on effects of risk indicators on risk measures are available. For this reason, this study quantifies...... the effects and highlights the most important risk indicators with the aim to support further developments in risk analysis. Therefore, a system model of a road tunnel was developed to determine the risk measures. The system model can be divided into three parts: the fire part connected to the fire model Fire...... Dynamics Simulator (FDS); the evacuation part connected to the evacuation model FDS+Evac; and the frequency part connected to a model to calculate the frequency of fires. This study shows that the parts of the system model (and their most important risk indicators) affect the risk measures in the following...

  18. What is a risk. [Quantitative risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schoen, G [Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt, Braunschweig (Germany, F.R.)

    1979-02-01

    The following article is a revised version of a lecture given by the author during the VDE meeting 'Technical Expert Activities' in Brunswick. First of all, the concept of 'risk' is discussed which leads to a probability scale which then permits a definition of the 'justifiable risk' as the boundary between 'hazard' and 'safety'. The boundary is quantified indirectly from laws, regulations, instructions, etc. to the 'Technological rules' for special fields of application by minimum requirement data. These viewpoints described in detail are not only of substantial significance for the creation of safety regulations but also for their application and consequently for jurisdiction.

  19. estudo comparativo

    OpenAIRE

    Álvaro, Rocha

    2005-01-01

    O sítio web é um importante meio de comunicação e competitividade das universidades. Há diferentes razões para acreditar que os sítios possam variar entre universidades, mas contudo há certeza da existência de requisitos de qualidade comuns e transversais a todas. Este estudo visou avaliar, de forma quantitativa e objectiva, o cumprimento de requisitos de qualidade pelos sítios web das Universidades Portuguesas, com base nas características de alto nível da norma ISO 9126-1 que interessam aos...

  20. Fatores de risco e preditores para o aborto induzido: estudo de base populacional Risk factors and predictors of induced abortion: a population-based study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Teresa Anselmo Olinto

    2006-02-01

    Full Text Available O presente trabalho investigou os principais fatores de risco e preditores para o aborto induzido. Foi realizado um estudo transversal de base populacional com uma amostra representativa de 3.002 mulheres de 15 a 49 anos residentes no Sul do Brasil. Para responder as questões de aborto, as mulheres foram alocadas entre duas metodologias: método da urna ou método das questões indiretas. Informações sócio-econômicas, demográficas e reprodutivas foram obtidas por meio de um questionário pré-codificado. Na análise e interpretação dos dados utilizou-se o modelo de regressão logística. Teorema de Bayes foi aplicado para a determinação das probabilidades a posteriori permitindo a transformação dos dados agregados em dados individuais. Abortos induzidos estiveram fortemente relacionados com relatos de perda fetal em todas as idades. Entre as adolescentes, os principais preditores foram: pertencer a famílias de baixa renda, ter baixa escolaridade e alta evasão escolar, além de conhecerem um número maior de métodos contraceptivos. Para as mulheres de 20 a 49 anos de idade não houve diferença sócio-econômica, sendo que, estado civil e características reprodutivas, incluindo conhecimento de métodos contraceptivos, foram os fatores de risco freqüentes para o aborto induzido.This study aimed to identify key risk factors and predictors of induced abortion. A cross-sectional population-based study was conducted with a representative sample of 3,002 women 15 to 49 years of age in southern Brazil, randomly assigned to answer questions on induced abortion using either the ballot-box method or the indirect questioning method. Socioeconomic, demographic, and reproductive data were obtained through a pre-coded questionnaire. Data analysis used epidemiological statistical inferences and Bayes' theorem to calculate a posteriori probability. Induced abortion was strongly associated with fetal loss for all age groups. In adolescents, the

  1. Risk analysis in radiosurgery treatments using risk matrices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delgado, J. M.; Sanchez Cayela, C.; Ramirez, M. L.; Perez, A.

    2011-01-01

    The aim of this study is the risk analysis process stereotactic single-dose radiotherapy and evaluation of those initiating events that lead to increased risk and a possible solution in the design of barriers.

  2. Risk Analysis Group annual progress report 1984

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1985-06-01

    The activities of the Risk Analysis Group at Risoe during 1984 are presented. These include descriptions in some detail of work on general development topics and risk analysis performed as contractor. (author)

  3. RISK ANALYSIS IN MILK PROCESSING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. PIRVUTOIU

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper aimed to evaluate Risk bankruptcy using “Score Method” based on Canon and Holder’s Model. The data were collected from the Balance Sheet and Profit and Loss Account for the period 2005-2007, recorded by a Meat processing Plant (Rador Commercial Company .The study has put in evidence the financial situation of the company,the level of the main financial ratios fundamenting the calculation of Z score function value in the three years The low values of Z score function recorded every year reflects that the company is still facing backruptcy. However , the worst situation was recorded in the years 2005 and 2006, when baknruptcy risk was ranging between 70 – 80 % . In the year 2007, the risk bankruptcy was lower, ranging between 50-70 % , as Z function recorded a value lower than 4 .For Meat processing companies such an analysis is compulsory at present as long as business environment is very risky in our country.

  4. Risk analysis; Analisis de riesgos

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baron, J H; Nunez McLeod, J; Rivera, S S [Universidad Nacional de Cuyo, Mendoza (Argentina). Instituto de Capacitacion Especial y Desarrollo de Ingenieria Asistida por Computadora (CEDIAC)

    1997-07-01

    This book contains a selection of research works performed in the CEDIAC Institute (Cuyo National University) in the area of Risk Analysis, with specific orientations to the subjects of uncertainty and sensitivity studies, software reliability, severe accident modeling, etc. This volume presents important material for all those researches who want to have an insight in the risk analysis field, as a tool to solution several problems frequently found in the engineering and applied sciences field, as well as for the academic teachers who want to keep up to date, including the new developments and improvements continuously arising in this field. [Spanish] Este libro contiene una seleccion de trabajos de investigacion realizados dentro del Instituto de Capacitacion Especial y Desarrollo de la Ingenieria Asistida por Computadora en el area del analisis de riesgos, con una orientacion hacia el estudio de incertidumbres y sensibilidad, confiabilidad de software, modelacion de accidentes severos, etc. Este volumen recoge un material de indudable importancia e interes para todos aquellos investigadores y profesionales que desean incursionar en este campo del analisis de riesgos como herramienta para la solucion de problemas frecuentemente encontrados en la ingenieria y las ciencias aplicadas, asi como para los academicos que desean mantenerse al dia, conociendo los nuevos desarrollos y tecnicas que constantemente aparecen en su area.

  5. A background to risk analysis. Vol. 3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, J.R.

    1979-01-01

    This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles, and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justifi- cation or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appenix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 3 contains chapters on quantification of risk, failure and accident probability, risk analysis and design, and examles of risk analysis for process plant. (BP)

  6. A background risk analysis. Vol. 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, J.R.

    1979-01-01

    This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles, and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques, described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justification or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appendix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 1 contains a short history of risk analysis, and chapters on risk, failures, errors and accidents, and general procedures for risk analysis. (BP)

  7. Fatores de risco para infarto do miocárdio no Brasil: estudo FRICAS Risk factors for acute myocardial infarction in Brazil (FRICAS study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Aurélio Dias da Silva

    1998-11-01

    Full Text Available OBJETIVO: Determinar os fatores de risco para a ocorrência de infarto agudo do miocárdio (IAM no Brasil. MÉTODOS: Estudo conduzido entre janeiro/94 e março/95, em 20 centros médicos no Brasil, constituído de casos, 299 pacientes com IAM e, controles, 292 indivíduos, identificados no mesmo centro que os casos, e admitidos com largo espectro de doenças agudas, não relacionadas a fatores de risco conhecidos ou suspeitos para IAM. Os dados foram colhidos por meio de um questionário estruturado, preenchido pelo próprio paciente. Os efeitos das variáveis pesquisadas sobre a ocorrência de IAM foram estudadas em abordagens univariadas, considerando-se significativo pPURPOSE: To determine risk factors related to acute myocardial infarction (AMI in Brazil. METHODS: Five hundred ninety one patients were selected in 20 medical centers in Brazil, between January/94 and March/95. Two-hundred-ninety-nine patients were cases, and 292 controls with a variety of acute diseases not related to the suspected or known risk factors for acute myocardial infarction. All data were collected through a structured questionnaire filled by the patients. The evaluation of the variables was done through univariate analysis with a significance level of 5%. RESULTS: The factors related to acute myocardial infarction were respectively to cases and controls: Hypercholesterolemia - 210.93±46.74mg/dl and 185.71±45.45mg/dl, (p=0.000; smoking - 41.69% and 27.20% (p=0.000; hypertension - 52.35% and 20.88% (p=0.000; diabetes - 19.70% and 9.93% (p=0.001; family history - related to the patient's father in 42.14% and 33.22% (p=0.025 and to the mother in 42.14% and 30.82% (p=0.007; socioeconomic level - 88.99% and 60.20% owned house (p=0.002; 44.45% and 33.21% owned car (p=0.010; physical activity - 56.83% and 48.28% had the habit of walking in the year prior to study entry (p=0.029; diet - 38.79% and 28.42% consumed canned food (p=0.013. The mean weight was 72.50±26.89kg

  8. RAMS (Risk Analysis - Modular System) methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stenner, R.D.; Strenge, D.L.; Buck, J.W. [and others

    1996-10-01

    The Risk Analysis - Modular System (RAMS) was developed to serve as a broad scope risk analysis tool for the Risk Assessment of the Hanford Mission (RAHM) studies. The RAHM element provides risk analysis support for Hanford Strategic Analysis and Mission Planning activities. The RAHM also provides risk analysis support for the Hanford 10-Year Plan development activities. The RAMS tool draws from a collection of specifically designed databases and modular risk analysis methodologies and models. RAMS is a flexible modular system that can be focused on targeted risk analysis needs. It is specifically designed to address risks associated with overall strategy, technical alternative, and `what if` questions regarding the Hanford cleanup mission. RAMS is set up to address both near-term and long-term risk issues. Consistency is very important for any comparative risk analysis, and RAMS is designed to efficiently and consistently compare risks and produce risk reduction estimates. There is a wide range of output information that can be generated by RAMS. These outputs can be detailed by individual contaminants, waste forms, transport pathways, exposure scenarios, individuals, populations, etc. However, they can also be in rolled-up form to support high-level strategy decisions.

  9. Streamlining project delivery through risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-08-01

    Project delivery is a significant area of concern and is subject to several risks throughout Plan Development : Process (PDP). These risks are attributed to major areas of project development, such as environmental : analysis, right-of-way (ROW) acqu...

  10. Risk analysis and safety rationale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bengtsson, G.

    1989-01-01

    Decision making with respect to safety is becoming more and more complex. The risk involved must be taken into account together with numerous other factors such as the benefits, the uncertainties and the public perception. Can the decision maker be aided by some kind of system, general rules of thumb, or broader perspective on similar decisions? This question has been addressed in a joint Nordic project relating to nuclear power. Modern techniques for risk assessment and management have been studied, and parallels drawn to such areas as offshore safety and management of toxic chemicals in the environment. The report summarises the finding of 5 major technical reports which have been published in the NORD-series. The topics includes developments, uncertainties and limitations in probabilistic safety assessments, negligible risks, risk-cost trade-offs, optimisation of nuclear safety and radiation protection, and the role of risks in the decision making process. (author) 84 refs

  11. A background to risk analysis. Vol. 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, J.R.

    1979-01-01

    This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justification or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appendix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 2 treats generic methods of qualitative failure analysis. (BP)

  12. Risk Analysis of Telecom Enterprise Financing

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YU Hua; SHU Hua-ying

    2005-01-01

    The main research objects in this paper are the causes searching and risk estimating method for telecom enterprises' financial risks. The multi-mode financing for telecom enterprises makes it flexible to induce the capital and obtain the profit by corresponding projects. But there are also potential risks going with these financing modes. After making analysis of categories and causes of telecom enterprises' financing risk, a method by Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is put forward to estimating the financing risk. And the author makes her suggestion and opinion by example analysis, in order to provide some ideas and basis for telecom enterprise's financing decision-making.

  13. PRA and Risk Informed Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernsen, Sidney A.; Simonen, Fredric A.; Balkey, Kenneth R.

    2006-01-01

    The Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code (BPVC) of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) has introduced a risk based approach into Section XI that covers Rules for Inservice Inspection of Nuclear Power Plant Components. The risk based approach requires application of the probabilistic risk assessments (PRA). Because no industry consensus standard existed for PRAs, ASME has developed a standard to evaluate the quality level of an available PRA needed to support a given risk based application. The paper describes the PRA standard, Section XI application of PRAs, and plans for broader applications of PRAs to other ASME nuclear codes and standards. The paper addresses several specific topics of interest to Section XI. Important consideration are special methods (surrogate components) used to overcome the lack of PRA treatments of passive components in PRAs. The approach allows calculations of conditional core damage probabilities both for component failures that cause initiating events and failures in standby systems that decrease the availability of these systems. The paper relates the explicit risk based methods of the new Section XI code cases to the implicit consideration of risk used in the development of Section XI. Other topics include the needed interactions of ISI engineers, plant operating staff, PRA specialists, and members of expert panels that review the risk based programs

  14. Advances in Risk Analysis with Big Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Tsan-Ming; Lambert, James H

    2017-08-01

    With cloud computing, Internet-of-things, wireless sensors, social media, fast storage and retrieval, etc., organizations and enterprises have access to unprecedented amounts and varieties of data. Current risk analysis methodology and applications are experiencing related advances and breakthroughs. For example, highway operations data are readily available, and making use of them reduces risks of traffic crashes and travel delays. Massive data of financial and enterprise systems support decision making under risk by individuals, industries, regulators, etc. In this introductory article, we first discuss the meaning of big data for risk analysis. We then examine recent advances in risk analysis with big data in several topic areas. For each area, we identify and introduce the relevant articles that are featured in the special issue. We conclude with a discussion on future research opportunities. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  15. 38 CFR 75.115 - Risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Risk analysis. 75.115 Section 75.115 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS (CONTINUED) INFORMATION SECURITY MATTERS Data Breaches § 75.115 Risk analysis. If a data breach involving sensitive personal information that is processed or...

  16. A background to risk analysis. Vol. 4

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, J.R.

    1979-01-01

    This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles, and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justification or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appendix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 4 treats human error in plant operation. (BP)

  17. Reliability and validity of risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aven, Terje; Heide, Bjornar

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we investigate to what extent risk analysis meets the scientific quality requirements of reliability and validity. We distinguish between two types of approaches within risk analysis, relative frequency-based approaches and Bayesian approaches. The former category includes both traditional statistical inference methods and the so-called probability of frequency approach. Depending on the risk analysis approach, the aim of the analysis is different, the results are presented in different ways and consequently the meaning of the concepts reliability and validity are not the same.

  18. Probabilistic risk analysis for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hauptmanns, U.

    1988-01-01

    Risk analysis is applied if the calculation of risk from observed failures is not possible, because events contributing substantially to risk are too seldom, as in the case of nuclear reactors. The process of analysis provides a number of benefits. Some of them are listed. After this by no means complete enumeration of possible benefits to be derived from a risk analysis. An outline of risk studiesd for PWR's with some comments on the models used are given. The presentation is indebted to the detailed treatment of the subject given in the PRA Procedures Guide. Thereafter some results of the German Risk Study, Phase B, which is under way are communicated. The paper concludes with some remarks on probabilistic considerations in licensing procedures. (orig./DG)

  19. Bias in risk-benefit analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mazur, A.

    1985-01-01

    Risk-benefit analysis has become popular in the past decade as a means of improving decision making, especially in the area of technology policy. Here risk-benefit analysis is compared to other (equally defensible) approaches to decision making, showing how it favors some political interests more than others, and suggesting why it has recently come to the fore as a tool of political analysis. A considerable portion of the discussion concerns nuclear power. 6 references

  20. Collision Risk Analysis for HSC

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Urban, Jesper; Pedersen, Preben Terndrup; Simonsen, Bo Cerup

    1999-01-01

    High Speed Craft (HSC) have a risk profile, which is distinctly different from conventional ferries. Due to different hull building material, structural layout, compartmentation and operation, both frequency and consequences of collision and grounding accidents must be expected to be different fr...

  1. Generalized indices for radiation risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bykov, A.A.; Demin, V.F.

    1989-01-01

    A new approach to ensuring nuclear safety has begun forming since the early eighties. The approach based on the probabilistic safety analysis, the principles of acceptable risk, the optimization of safety measures, etc. has forced a complex of adequate quantitative methods of assessment, safety analysis and risk management to be developed. The method of radiation risk assessment and analysis hold a prominent place in the complex. National and international research and regulatory organizations ICRP, IAEA, WHO, UNSCEAR, OECD/NEA have given much attention to the development of the conceptual and methodological basis of those methods. Some resolutions of the National Commission of Radiological Protection (NCRP) and the Problem Commission on Radiation Hygiene of the USSR Ministry of Health should be also noted. Both CBA (cost benefit analysis) and other methods of radiation risk analysis and safety management use a system of natural and socio-economic indices characterizing the radiation risk or damage. There exist a number of problems associated with the introduction, justification and use of these indices. For example, the price, a, of radiation damage, or collective dose unit, is a noteworthy index. The difficulties in its qualitative and quantitative determination are still an obstacle for a wide application of CBA to the radiation risk analysis and management. During recent 10-15 years these problems have been a subject of consideration for many authors. The present paper also considers the issues of the qualitative and quantitative justification of the indices of radiation risk analysis

  2. Fatores de risco para óbitos neonatais no Recife: um estudo caso-controle Risk factors for neonatal death in Recife: a case-control study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sílvia W. Sarinho

    2001-08-01

    Full Text Available OBJETIVOS: a mortalidade neonatal é o componente mais importante da mortalidade infantil na cidade do Recife. Este estudo teve como objetivo determinar os principais fatores de risco para morte neonatal no município do Recife em 1995. MÉTODOS: o desenho do estudo foi do tipo caso-controle. Realizou-se a validação dos bancos de dados do Sistema de Informação em Mortalidade e Sistema de Informação Nascido Vivo, para mães residentes no Recife, no ano de 1995. Obteve-se, após técnica do linkage entre os dois bancos de dados, amostra com 456 casos e 2.280 controles. Como medida de risco utilizou-se Odds Ratio, com intervalo de confiança de 95% e para a diferença de proporção, o teste qui quadrado. Utilizou-se na análise multivariada a técnica da regressão logística. RESULTADOS: verificou-se que 358 (79,7% das crianças que evoluíram para óbito foram de baixo peso ao nascer, com risco de morte 46 vezes superior (IC=33,8-59,0 P 2.500g. Por ordem decrescente de valores da medida de associação de morte neonatal com as variáveis estudadas através da análise multivariada, os principais fatores de risco foram peso ao nascer OBJECTIVE: Neonatal mortality is the main cause of infant mortality in the city of Recife. The objective of the present study was to determine the major risk factors for neonatal death in Recife in 1995. METHODS: This is a case control study. Information was obtained from the mortality and live birth databases after validation of the data set, between January and December 1995. A sample of 456 cases and 2,280 controls was obtained after using the linkage technique between the two data sets. The difference in proportion was analyzed by the chi square test. The odds ratio was calculated as a risk measure, with a 95% confidence interval. The logistic regression technique was used to adjust potential confounding factors. RESULTS: 212 deaths (46.6% occurred in the first 24 hours of life. We found that 358 (79.7% of

  3. Safety analysis, risk assessment, and risk acceptance criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jamali, K.

    1997-01-01

    This paper discusses a number of topics that relate safety analysis as documented in the Department of Energy (DOE) safety analysis reports (SARs), probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) as characterized primarily in the context of the techniques that have assumed some level of formality in commercial nuclear power plant applications, and risk acceptance criteria as an outgrowth of PRA applications. DOE SARs of interest are those that are prepared for DOE facilities under DOE Order 5480.23 and the implementing guidance in DOE STD-3009-94. It must be noted that the primary area of application for DOE STD-3009 is existing DOE facilities and that certain modifications of the STD-3009 approach are necessary in SARs for new facilities. Moreover, it is the hazard analysis (HA) and accident analysis (AA) portions of these SARs that are relevant to the present discussions. Although PRAs can be qualitative in nature, PRA as used in this paper refers more generally to all quantitative risk assessments and their underlying methods. HA as used in this paper refers more generally to all qualitative risk assessments and their underlying methods that have been in use in hazardous facilities other than nuclear power plants. This discussion includes both quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methods. PRA has been used, improved, developed, and refined since the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) was published in 1975 by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Much debate has ensued since WASH-1400 on exactly what the role of PRA should be in plant design, reactor licensing, 'ensuring' plant and process safety, and a large number of other decisions that must be made for potentially hazardous activities. Of particular interest in this area is whether the risks quantified using PRA should be compared with numerical risk acceptance criteria (RACs) to determine whether a facility is 'safe.' Use of RACs requires quantitative estimates of consequence frequency and magnitude

  4. GIS risk analysis of hazardous materials transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anders, C.; Olsten, J.

    1991-01-01

    The Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to assess the risks and vulnerability of transporting hazardous materials and wastes (such as gasoline, explosives, poisons, etc) on the Arizona highway system. This paper discusses the methodology that was utilized, and the application of GIS systems to risk analysis problems

  5. Marcadores e fatores de risco para queratoses actínicas e carcinomas basocelulares: um estudo de caso-controle Risk markers and risk factors for actinic keratosis and basal cell carcinoma: a case-control study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Passos da Rocha

    2004-08-01

    premalignant lesions. OBJECTIVES: To identify the risk factors and dermatological risk markers for cutaneous malignancies. METHODS: A case-control study nested in a population-based prevalence survey was performed in adults aged 50 living in the urban area of Pelotas. In the prevalence study, a questionnaire was applied to identify possible malignant or premalignant lesions and these subjects were examined by two doctors (gold standard. A sub-sample of the persons who answered No to the questions was also sent to the Ambulatory for the same procedure. The sample was constituted of 288 persons: 74 cases and 214 controls. The number and the type of efflorescence was evaluated at the interview with the doctors. The questionnaire also investigated socioeconomic level, behavioral variables and skin examination. The measure of effect used was the Odds Ratio (OR; and to control confounding factors, logistic regression, with hierarchical pattern, was utilized. RESULTS: In the multivariate analysis, the following variables remained significant: age 80 years (OR = 10.21, white skin (OR = 4.85, blond or red hair (OR = 3.69 and risk markers: solar elastosis (OR = 4.35, cutis rhomboidalis nuchae (OR = 2.88 and more than 10 melanoses on the back of the hands (OR = 6.0. CONCLUSION: Elderly individuals, with fair skin and hair, solar elastosis, cutis rhomboidalis nuchae and a great number of melanoses on the hands, are at high risk for actinic keratosis and basal cell carcinoma.

  6. Dealing with phenomenological uncertainty in risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Theofanous, T.G.

    1994-01-01

    The Risk-Oriented Accident Analysis Methodology (ROAAM) is summarized and developed further towards a formal definition. The key ideas behind the methodology and these more formal aspects are also presented and discussed

  7. Risk and safety analysis of nuclear systems

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lee, John C; McCormick, Norman J

    2011-01-01

    .... The first half of the book covers the principles of risk analysis, the techniques used to develop and update a reliability data base, the reliability of multi-component systems, Markov methods used...

  8. Risk analysis for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koelzer, W.

    1983-01-01

    The German risk analysis program for nuclear power plants aiming at the man and the environment is presented. An accident consequence model to calculate the radiological impact and the potential health effects is described. (E.G.) [pt

  9. Probabilistic risk analysis in chemical engineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmalz, F.

    1991-01-01

    In risk analysis in the chemical industry, recognising potential risks is considered more important than assessing their quantitative extent. Even in assessing risks, emphasis is not on the probability involved but on the possible extent. Qualitative assessment has proved valuable here. Probabilistic methods are used in individual cases where the wide implications make it essential to be able to assess the reliability of safety precautions. In this case, assessment therefore centres on the reliability of technical systems and not on the extent of a chemical risk. 7 figs

  10. Reliability and risk analysis methods research plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1984-10-01

    This document presents a plan for reliability and risk analysis methods research to be performed mainly by the Reactor Risk Branch (RRB), Division of Risk Analysis and Operations (DRAO), Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research. It includes those activities of other DRAO branches which are very closely related to those of the RRB. Related or interfacing programs of other divisions, offices and organizations are merely indicated. The primary use of this document is envisioned as an NRC working document, covering about a 3-year period, to foster better coordination in reliability and risk analysis methods development between the offices of Nuclear Regulatory Research and Nuclear Reactor Regulation. It will also serve as an information source for contractors and others to more clearly understand the objectives, needs, programmatic activities and interfaces together with the overall logical structure of the program

  11. Gender Analysis of Risk in Innovation System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ayinde, Ope; Muchie, Mammo; Abaniyan, E. O.

    2011-01-01

    the new maize variety. The analytical tools used include descriptive statistics, regression model; risk utility functions and risk parameter analysis. The result showed that invasion by animals, disease and pest, lack of access to credit wind and price fluctuation were the major risk facing the maize......This study analyzed risk by gender in innovation in Kwara state, Nigeria, using downy mildew resistant maize production as case study. The study employed primary and secondary data. The primary data were collected from well-structured questionnaires administered to both male and female producing...... producers in the area in the usage of the new innovation. The study also revealed that male producers were willing to take risk in the new maize variety production than the female, while the females were more indifferent to the risk involved in the new maize production variety than males. None...

  12. Intentional risk management through complex networks analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Chapela, Victor; Moral, Santiago; Romance, Miguel

    2015-01-01

    This book combines game theory and complex networks to examine intentional technological risk through modeling. As information security risks are in constant evolution,  the methodologies and tools to manage them must evolve to an ever-changing environment. A formal global methodology is explained  in this book, which is able to analyze risks in cyber security based on complex network models and ideas extracted from the Nash equilibrium. A risk management methodology for IT critical infrastructures is introduced which provides guidance and analysis on decision making models and real situations. This model manages the risk of succumbing to a digital attack and assesses an attack from the following three variables: income obtained, expense needed to carry out an attack, and the potential consequences for an attack. Graduate students and researchers interested in cyber security, complex network applications and intentional risk will find this book useful as it is filled with a number of models, methodologies a...

  13. Riscos ocupacionais para o câncer de laringe: um estudo caso-controle Occupational risks for laryngeal cancer: a case-control study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergio Guerra Sartor

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available O tabagismo e o consumo de álcool são os fatores de risco mais bem estabelecidos para o câncer de laringe. Com relação aos fatores ocupacionais, o único carcinógeno estabelecido é a exposição a névoas de ácidos inorgânicos fortes. Entretanto, asbesto, pesticidas, tintas, gases de combustão de gasolina e diesel e poeiras, entre outros, aparecem na literatura como agentes ocupacionais que aumentam o risco de câncer de laringe. Um estudo caso-controle de base hospitalar foi conduzido para investigar fatores de risco ocupacionais para câncer de laringe. Foram coletadas informações detalhadas sobre tabagismo, consumo de álcool e história ocupacional de 122 casos de câncer de laringe e 187 controles pareados por freqüência (segundo sexo e idade. Encontrou-se risco aumentado de câncer de laringe nos indivíduos com exposição à sílica cristalina livre respirável (OR = 1,83; IC95%: 1,00-3,36, à fuligem (de carvão mineral, coque, madeira, óleo combustível (OR = 1,78; IC95%: 1,03-3,03, a fumos em geral (OR = 2,55; IC95%: 1,14-5,67 e a animais vivos (OR = 1,80; IC95%: 1,02-3,19.The most solidly established risk factors for laryngeal cancer are tobacco and alcohol. As for occupational factors, the only established carcinogen is exposure to strong inorganic acid mists. However, asbestos, pesticides, paints, gasoline, diesel engine emissions, dusts, and other factors have been reported in the literature as occupational agents that increase the risk of laryngeal cancer. A hospital-based case-control study was conducted to investigate occupational risk factors for laryngeal cancer. Detailed data on smoking, alcohol consumption, and occupational history were collected for 122 laryngeal cancers and 187 controls matched by frequency (according to sex and age. Laryngeal cancer was associated with exposure to respirable free crystalline silica (OR = 1.83; 95%CI: 1.00-3.36, soot (from coal, coke, fuel oil, or wood (odds ratio - OR = 1

  14. WIPP fire hazards and risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-05-01

    The purpose of this analysis was to conduct a fire hazards risk analysis of the Transuranic (TRU) contact-handled waste receipt, emplacement, and disposal activities at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). The technical bases and safety envelope for these operations are defined in the approved WIPP Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR). Although the safety documentation for the initial phase of the Test Program, the dry bin scale tests, has not yet been approved by the Department of Energy (DOE), reviews of the draft to date, including those by the Advisory Committee on Nuclear Facility Safety (ACNFS), have concluded that the dry bin scale tests present no significant risks in excess of those estimated in the approved WIPP FSAR. It is the opinion of the authors and reviewers of this analysis, based on sound engineering judgment and knowledge of the WIPP operations, that a Fire Hazards and Risk Analysis specific to the dry bin scale test program is not warranted prior to first waste receipt. This conclusion is further supported by the risk analysis presented in this document which demonstrates the level of risk to WIPP operations posed by fire to be extremely low. 15 refs., 41 figs., 48 tabs

  15. Standardised risk analysis as a communication tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pluess, Ch.; Montanarini, M.; Bernauer, M.

    1998-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: several European countries require a risk analysis for the production, storage or transport a dangerous goods. This requirement imposes considerable administrative effort for some sectors of the industry. In order to minimize the effort of such studies, a generic risk analysis for an industrial sector proved to help. Standardised procedures can consequently be derived for efficient performance of the risk investigations. This procedure was successfully established in Switzerland for natural gas transmission lines and fossil fuel storage plants. The development process of the generic risk analysis involved an intense discussion between industry and authorities about methodology of assessment and the criteria of acceptance. This process finally led to scientific consistent modelling tools for risk analysis and to an improved communication from the industry to the authorities and the public. As a recent example, the Holland-Italy natural gas transmission pipeline is demonstrated, where this method was successfully employed. Although this pipeline traverses densely populated areas in Switzerland, using this established communication method, the risk problems could be solved without delaying the planning process. (authors)

  16. Risk analysis of industrial plants operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, Philippe

    1989-12-01

    This study examines the possibilities of systematic technology risk analysis in view of territorial management (city, urban community, region), including chronic and accidental risks. The objective was to relate this evaluation with those done for permanent water and air pollution. Risk management for pollution are done for a long time. A number of studies were done in urban communities and regions both for air and water pollution. The second objective is related to management of industrial risks: nuclear, petrochemical, transport of hazardous material, pipelines, etc. At the beginning, three possibilities of effects are taken into account: human health, economic aspect and water, and possibilities of evaluation are identified. Elements of risk identification are presented for quantification of results [fr

  17. Risk analysis of alternative energy sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kazmer, D.R.

    1982-01-01

    The author explores two points raised by Miller Spangler in a January 1981 issue: public perception of risks involving nuclear power plants relative to those of conventional plants and criteria for evaluating the way risk analyses are made. On the first point, he concludes that translating public attitudes into the experts' language of probability and risk could provide better information and understanding of both the attitudes and the risks. Viewing risk analysis methodologies as filters which help to test historical change, he suggests that the lack of information favors a lay jury approach for energy decisions. Spangler responds that Congress is an example of lay decision making, but that a lay jury, given public disinterest and polarization, would probably not improve social justice on the nuclear issue. 5 references, 4 figures

  18. LANDSAFE: LANDING SITE RISK ANALYSIS SOFTWARE FRAMEWORK

    OpenAIRE

    Schmidt, Ralph; Bostelmann, Jonas; Cornet, Yves; Heipke, Christian; Philippe, Christian; Poncelet, Nadia; de Rosa, Diego; Vandeloise, Yannick

    2012-01-01

    The European Space Agency (ESA) is planning a Lunar Lander mission in the 2018 timeframe that will demonstrate precise soft landing at the polar regions of the Moon. To ensure a safe and successful landing a careful risk analysis has to be carried out. This is comprised of identifying favorable target areas and evaluating the surface conditions in these areas. Features like craters, boulders, steep slopes, rough surfaces and shadow areas have to be identified in order to assess the risk assoc...

  19. Impact Analysis for Risks in Informatics Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Baicu, Floarea; Baches, Maria Alexandra

    2013-01-01

    In this paper are presented methods of impact analysis on informatics system security accidents, qualitative and quantitative methods, starting with risk and informational system security definitions. It is presented the relationship between the risks of exploiting vulnerabilities of security system, security level of these informatics systems, probability of exploiting the weak points subject to financial losses of a company, respectively impact of a security accident on the company. Herewit...

  20. Risco cardiovascular em vegetarianos e onívoros: um estudo comparativo Cardiovascular risk in vegetarians and omnivores: a comparative study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rita de Cássia Moreira de Almeida Teixeira

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available FUNDAMENTO: Estudos clínicos e epidemiológicos demonstram grande associação da dieta com os agravos crônicos, particularmente com os eventos cardiovasculares, apesar de ainda não compreendidos todos os seus mecanismos de ação. OBJETIVO: Descrever e analisar o risco cardiovascular em vegetarianos e onívoros residentes na Grande Vitória/ES, na faixa etária de 35 a 64 anos. MÉTODOS: Para avaliação do risco cardiovascular foi realizado estudo de coorte histórico com 201 indivíduos. Foram incluídos 67 vegetarianos há no mínimo 5 anos, provenientes da Grande Vitória, e 134 onívoros, participantes do Projeto MONICA/Vitória, pareados por classe socioeconômica, sexo, idade e raça. Medidas bioquímicas e hemodinâmicas foram obtidas na Clínica de Investigação Cardiovascular da UFES. Para comparação de proporções, foi usado o teste chi2 e calculada a razão de prevalência. O risco cardiovascular foi calculado por meio do algoritmo de Framingham. RESULTADOS: A idade média do grupo foi de 47 ± 8 anos e o tempo médio de vegetarianismo 19 ± 10 anos, sendo a dieta ovolactovegetariana seguida por 73% dos vegetarianos. Pressão arterial, glicemia de jejum, colesterol total, colesterol de lipoproteína de baixa densidade (LDL-colesterol e triglicerídeos foram mais baixos entre vegetarianos (pBACKGROUND: Clinical and epidemiological studies have demonstrated a strong association between eating habits and chronic diseases, particularly cardiovascular events, although not all the mechanisms of action are understood. OBJECTIVE: To describe and analyze the cardiovascular risk (CVR in vegetarians and omnivores residing in Greater Vitória, State of Espírito Santo, Brazil, in the age range from 35 to 64 years. METHODS: To evaluate CVR in the groups, a historical cohort study with 201 individuals was conducted. Sixty seven individuals who had been following a vegetarian diet for at least five years, and who were from Greater Vit

  1. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  2. Risco de suicídio em gestantes de alto risco: um estudo exploratório Risk of suicide in high risk pregnancy: an exploratory study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gláucia Rosana Guerra Benute

    2011-10-01

    sugerem a importância da prevenção e diagnóstico precoce do risco para suicídio, pois ocasionar a própria morte é uma tentativa de mudar de uma esfera para outra à força, buscando solução para o que parece impossível.OBJECTIVE: To identify the risk of suicidal behavior in high-risk pregnant women at a public hospital in São Paulo. METHODS: We conducted a semi-structured interview with each of the participants (n = 268 through a previously prepared questionnaire. Risk of suicidal behavior was assessed by the Portuguese version of PRIME-MD. RESULTS: The mean age of patients was 29 years (SD = 0.507 and gestation period was 30 weeks (SD = 0.556. Of the total sample, specific risk of suicide was found in 5% (n = 14. Of these, 85% have a stable relationship (married or cohabitating, the pregnancy was planned in 50% of cases, and 71% have no religion or professional activities. The correlation of risk of suicide with data from marital status, planned birth, age, education, professional practice, risk of prematurity, and religion showed that having a religion is statistically significant (p = 0.012. There were no positive associations for any of the other selected variables when compared with the risk of suicide. By correlating the risk of suicide with other characteristic symptoms of major depression, there was statistical significance in the sample with regard to insomnia or hypersomnia (p = 0.003, fatigue or loss of energy (p = 0.001, decreased or increased appetite (p = 0.005, less interest in daily activities (p = 0.000, depressed mood (p = 0.000, feelings of worthlessness or guilt (p = 0.000, decreased concentration (p = 0.002, and agitation or psychomotor retardation (p = 0.002. CONCLUSION: We found that religion can be a protective factor against suicidal behavior. Besides providing a social support network needed by women during pregnancy, religion supports belief in life after death and in a loving God, giving purpose to life and self esteem and providing

  3. New algorithm for risk analysis in radiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Torres, Antonio; Montes de Oca, Joe

    2015-01-01

    Risk analyses applied to radiotherapy treatments have become an undeniable necessity, considering the dangers generated by the combination of using powerful radiation fields on patients and the occurrence of human errors and equipment failures during these treatments. The technique par excellence to execute these analyses has been the risk matrix. This paper presents the development of a new algorithm to execute the task with wide graphic and analytic potentialities, thus transforming it into a very useful option for risk monitoring and the optimization of quality assurance. The system SECURE- MR, which is the basic software of this algorithm, has been successfully used in risk analysis regarding different kinds of radiotherapies. Compared to previous methods, It offers new possibilities of analysis considering risk controlling factors as the robustness of reducers of initiators frequency and its consequences. Their analytic capacities and graphs allow novel developments to classify risk contributing factors, to represent information processes as well as accidental sequences. The paper shows the application of the proposed system to a generic process of radiotherapy treatment using a lineal accelerator. (author)

  4. The watchdog role of risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reijen, G. van; Vinck, W.

    1983-01-01

    The reason why the risks of large-scale technology attract more attention lies in the fact that accidents would have more disastrous results and in the fact that it is probably more attractive to study the risks of some large projects than to do the same for a greater number of smaller projects. Within this presentation there will be some opening remarks on the Role of the Commission of the European Community with regard to accident prevention. The development of the concept of quantitative risks is dealt with. This development leads to a combinded of deterministic and probabilistic methods. The presentation concludes with some critical remarks on quantitative risk analysis and its use. (orig./HP) [de

  5. Implementing the Bayesian paradigm in risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aven, T.; Kvaloey, J.T.

    2002-01-01

    The Bayesian paradigm comprises a unified and consistent framework for analyzing and expressing risk. Yet, we see rather few examples of applications where the full Bayesian setting has been adopted with specifications of priors of unknown parameters. In this paper, we discuss some of the practical challenges of implementing Bayesian thinking and methods in risk analysis, emphasizing the introduction of probability models and parameters and associated uncertainty assessments. We conclude that there is a need for a pragmatic view in order to 'successfully' apply the Bayesian approach, such that we can do the assignments of some of the probabilities without adopting the somewhat sophisticated procedure of specifying prior distributions of parameters. A simple risk analysis example is presented to illustrate ideas

  6. Game Theoretic Risk Analysis of Security Threats

    CERN Document Server

    Bier, Vicki M

    2008-01-01

    Introduces reliability and risk analysis in the face of threats by intelligent agents. This book covers applications to networks, including problems in both telecommunications and transportation. It provides a set of tools for applying game theory TO reliability problems in the presence of intentional, intelligent threats

  7. Economic impact assessment in pest risk analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Soliman, T.A.A.; Mourits, M.C.M.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.; Werf, van der W.

    2010-01-01

    According to international treaties, phytosanitary measures against introduction and spread of invasive plant pests must be justified by a science-based pest risk analysis (PRA). Part of the PRA consists of an assessment of potential economic consequences. This paper evaluates the main available

  8. A narrativa oral, a análise de discurso e os estudos de gênero Oral narrative, discourse analysis and gender studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Lúcia Rocha-Coutinho

    2006-04-01

    Full Text Available Neste trabalho desenvolvemos a idéia de que os Estudos de Gênero inserem-se na nova tradição em ciência, que alguns autores denominam pós-empírica, que questiona a objetividade do conhecimento e a impessoalidade do pesquisador e que toma como importante a dimensão interpretativa da realidade social. Dentro dessa tradição, acreditamos que o uso da narrativa oral e da análise de discurso pode ser um rico e poderoso instrumento para uma melhor compreensão de mulheres e homens e, assim, em muito pode contribuir para os Estudos de Gênero nas Ciências Humanas e Sociais, em geral, e na Psicologia, em particular.In this work we argue that Gender Studies can be seen as part of the new tradition in science, that some authors call post-empirical, which questions the objectivity of knowledge and the impersonality of researchers and which takes the interpretative dimension of social reality as important. In accordance with this tradition, we believe that the use of oral narrative and of discourse analysis can be a rich and powerful instrument to a better understanding of women and men and, thus, can greatly contribute to Gender Studies in Social Sciences, in general, and in Psychology, in particular.

  9. Supplemental Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment - Hydrotreater

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lowry, Peter P. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wagner, Katie A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-04-01

    A supplemental hazard analysis was conducted and quantitative risk assessment performed in response to an independent review comment received by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) from the U.S. Department of Energy Pacific Northwest Field Office (PNSO) against the Hydrotreater/Distillation Column Hazard Analysis Report issued in April 2013. The supplemental analysis used the hazardous conditions documented by the previous April 2013 report as a basis. The conditions were screened and grouped for the purpose of identifying whether additional prudent, practical hazard controls could be identified, using a quantitative risk evaluation to assess the adequacy of the controls and establish a lower level of concern for the likelihood of potential serious accidents. Calculations were performed to support conclusions where necessary.

  10. Multivariate survival analysis and competing risks

    CERN Document Server

    Crowder, Martin J

    2012-01-01

    Multivariate Survival Analysis and Competing Risks introduces univariate survival analysis and extends it to the multivariate case. It covers competing risks and counting processes and provides many real-world examples, exercises, and R code. The text discusses survival data, survival distributions, frailty models, parametric methods, multivariate data and distributions, copulas, continuous failure, parametric likelihood inference, and non- and semi-parametric methods. There are many books covering survival analysis, but very few that cover the multivariate case in any depth. Written for a graduate-level audience in statistics/biostatistics, this book includes practical exercises and R code for the examples. The author is renowned for his clear writing style, and this book continues that trend. It is an excellent reference for graduate students and researchers looking for grounding in this burgeoning field of research.

  11. Risk and safety analysis of nuclear systems

    CERN Document Server

    Lee, John C

    2011-01-01

    The book has been developed in conjunction with NERS 462, a course offered every year to seniors and graduate students in the University of Michigan NERS program. The first half of the book covers the principles of risk analysis, the techniques used to develop and update a reliability data base, the reliability of multi-component systems, Markov methods used to analyze the unavailability of systems with repairs, fault trees and event trees used in probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs), and failure modes of systems. All of this material is general enough that it could be used in non-nuclear a

  12. Terminological Ontologies for Risk and Vulnerability Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Bodil Nistrup; Erdman Thomsen, Hanne

    2014-01-01

    Risk and vulnerability analyses are an important preliminary stage in civil contingency planning. The Danish Emergency Management Agency has developed a generic model and a set of tools that may be used in the preparedness planning, i.e. for identifying and describing society’s critical functions......, for formulating threat scenarios and for assessing consequences. Terminological ontologies, which are systems of domain specific concepts comprising concept relations and characteristics, are useful, both when describing the central concepts of risk and vulnerability analysis (meta concepts), and for further...

  13. Síndrome de Down e Moyamoya: estudo através de metanálise Moyamoya and Down syndrome: study conducted by meta-analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paulo Alves Junqueira

    2002-06-01

    Full Text Available Apresentamos o estudo clínico-epidemiológico de dois pacientes e metanálise (período 1977-2000 sobre a comorbidade entre síndrome de Down (SD e síndrome de "moyamoya" (SMM. Entre os 42 pacientes catalogados no presente estudo, a metanálise permitiu verificar: maior número de publicações de pesquisadores do Japão e Estados Unidos, seguidos pelo Brasil e Itália; predomínio do acidente vascular cerebral (AVC em lactentes e pré-escolares; sintomatologia inaugural, hemiparesia (78,6%, distúrbio da fala (26,2%; predomínio de infarto isquêmico (76,2%; episódios isquêmicos recorrentes (62%; comprometimento bilateral (83,3%. Esta análise permitiu concluir que, na investigação clínico-neurológica de pacientes com SD e episódios de hemiparesia aguda, a SMM deve ser incluída como diagnóstico mais provável .We present a clinic-epidemiological study of two patients and meta-analysis (period 1977-2000 of the co-morbidity of the Down syndrome (DS and moyamoya syndrome (MMS. Among the 42 patients listed in this survey, meta-analysis permitted to find the highest number of publications by researchers from Japan and United States, followed by Brazil and Italy; prevalence of cerebrovascular disease in suckling and pre school children; first symptomatology was hemiparesis (78.6%, speech disorders (26.2%; ischemic infarction (76.2%; recurring ischemic episodes (62%; bilateral impairment (83.3%. This analysis led to the conclusion that in the clinic-neurological investigation of DS patients with acute hemiparesis episodes, MMS should be included as the most probable diagnosis.

  14. Risk analysis for earth dam overtopping

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mo Chongxun

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a model of overtopping risk under the joint effects of floods and wind waves, which is based on risk analysis theory and takes into account the uncertainties of floods, wind waves, reservoir capacity and discharge capacity of the spillway, is proposed and applied to the Chengbihe Reservoir in Baise City in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. The simulated results indicate that the flood control limiting level can be raised by 0.40 m under the condition that the reservoir overtopping risk is controlled within a mean variance of 5×10−6. As a result, the reservoir storage will increase to 16 million m3 and electrical energy generation and other functions of the reservoir will also increase greatly.

  15. Investment appraisal using quantitative risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johansson, Henrik

    2002-07-01

    Investment appraisal concerned with investments in fire safety systems is discussed. Particular attention is directed at evaluating, in terms of the Bayesian decision theory, the risk reduction that investment in a fire safety system involves. It is shown how the monetary value of the change from a building design without any specific fire protection system to one including such a system can be estimated by use of quantitative risk analysis, the results of which are expressed in terms of a Risk-adjusted net present value. This represents the intrinsic monetary value of investing in the fire safety system. The method suggested is exemplified by a case study performed in an Avesta Sheffield factory.

  16. Instrumentos de Avaliação de Desempenho e Risco no Mercado Acionário Brasileiro: um estudo de anomalias de mercado na Bolsa de Valores de São Paulo (BOVESPAInstruments for the Evaluation Analysis of Performance and Risk in the Brazilian Stock Market: a study of the market anomalies at (BOVESPA Sao PauloInstrumentos de Evaluación del Desempeño y Riesgo en el Mercado de Acciones Brasileño: un estudio de anomalías de mercado en la Bolsa de Valores de São Paulo (BOVESPA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    OLIVIERI, Francisco José

    2004-09-01

    , selected (representative in the decision-making by the investors, this study aimed at developing the questionings arising from the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT model, based on the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM of the pricing in portfolios, which relations among its components are translated by Beta. This study applies to the evolution of the evaluation theories, risk measurement and formation of assets’ prices (expected pay-back which, in recent studies, have shown that, many times, the behavior of the investors does not confirm the divulged efficiency of the markets. The study was based on certain areas of the theory of investments, highlighting the risk approach as a factor for decision-making, in addition to the Asset Pricing Models of portfolios evaluation. This study was based on a documental and data research with the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange, institutions that manage investment funds and the Brazilian Central Bank (from 1997 to 2001 to test the several theories on market efficiency and, finally, the analysis of the information obtained from data modeling, searching to identify the consistency of the results, in view of the different models studied, relating them to the concepts of market weaknesses. As a result, it was possible to define the Security Market Line for the Brazilian market, based on the assets pricing models, beta coefficients and APT factors.RESUMENA partir de la formulación de las hipótesis de los Mercados Eficientes y del descubrimiento de las relaciones entre los activos negociados en el mercado bursátil y un determinado modelo de conducta racional, elegido (representativo en la toma de decisiones de los inversionistas, este estudio buscó desarrollar a partir del modelo CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model, de precificación en portfolios, cuyas relaciones entre componentes se traducen por el Beta, los cuestionamientos que advienen con el modelo APT (Arbitrage Pricing Theory. Se dedica entonces a la evolución de las teorías de la evaluaci

  17. Quantitative Risk Analysis: Method And Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anass BAYAGA

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Recent and past studies (King III report, 2009: 73-75; Stoney 2007;Committee of Sponsoring Organisation-COSO, 2004, Bartell, 2003; Liebenberg and Hoyt, 2003; Reason, 2000; Markowitz 1957 lament that although, the introduction of quantifying risk to enhance degree of objectivity in finance for instance was quite parallel to its development in the manufacturing industry, it is not the same in Higher Education Institution (HEI. In this regard, the objective of the paper was to demonstrate the methods and process of Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA through likelihood of occurrence of risk (phase I. This paper serves as first of a two-phased study, which sampled hundred (100 risk analysts in a University in the greater Eastern Cape Province of South Africa.The analysis of likelihood of occurrence of risk by logistic regression and percentages were conducted to investigate whether there were a significant difference or not between groups (analyst in respect of QRA.The Hosmer and Lemeshow test was non-significant with a chi-square(X2 =8.181; p = 0.300, which indicated that there was a good model fit, since the data did not significantly deviate from the model. The study concluded that to derive an overall likelihood rating that indicated the probability that a potential risk may be exercised within the construct of an associated threat environment, the following governing factors must be considered: (1 threat source motivation and capability (2 nature of the vulnerability (3 existence and effectiveness of current controls (methods and process.

  18. Risk analysis as a decision tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yadigaroglu, G.; Chakraborty, S.

    1985-01-01

    From 1983 - 1985 a lecture series entitled ''Risk-benefit analysis'' was held at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH), Zurich, in cooperation with the Central Department for the Safety of Nuclear Installations of the Swiss Federal Agency of Energy Economy. In that setting the value of risk-oriented evaluation models as a decision tool in safety questions was discussed on a broad basis. Experts of international reputation from the Federal Republic of Germany, France, Canada, the United States and Switzerland have contributed to report in this joint volume on the uses of such models. Following an introductory synopsis on risk analysis and risk assessment the book deals with practical examples in the fields of medicine, nuclear power, chemistry, transport and civil engineering. Particular attention is paid to the dialogue between analysts and decision makers taking into account the economic-technical aspects and social values. The recent chemical disaster in the Indian city of Bhopal again signals the necessity of such analyses. All the lectures were recorded individually. (orig./HP) [de

  19. Quantitative risk analysis preoperational of gas pipeline

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Manfredi, Carlos; Bispo, Gustavo G.; Esteves, Alvaro [Gie S.A., Buenos Aires (Argentina)

    2009-07-01

    The purpose of this analysis is to predict how it can be affected the individual risk and the public's general security due to the operation of a gas pipeline. In case that the single or social risks are considered intolerable, compared with the international standards, to be recommended measures of mitigation of the risk associated to the operation until levels that can be considered compatible with the best practices in the industry. The quantitative risk analysis calculates the probability of occurrence of an event based on the frequency of occurrence of the same one and it requires a complex mathematical treatment. The present work has as objective to develop a calculation methodology based on the previously mentioned publication. This calculation methodology is centered in defining the frequencies of occurrence of events, according to representative database of each case in study. Besides, it settles down the consequences particularly according to the considerations of each area and the different possibilities of interferences with the gas pipeline in study. For each one of the interferences a typical curve of ignition probabilities is developed in function from the distance to the pipe. (author)

  20. Risk analysis in oil spill response planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chernoplekov, A.N.; Alexandrov, A.A.

    2005-01-01

    Tiered response is a basic approach to emergency plans, including oil spill response (OSR). This paper delineates a huge set of accidental scenarios within a certain tier of response generated by a computer during risk assessment. Parameters such as the amount of oil spilled, duration of discharge and types of losses should be provided in OSR scenarios. Examples of applications include offshore installations, sub sea or onshore pipelines, and localized onshore facilities. The paper demonstrates how to use risk analysis results for delineating all likely spills into groups that need a specific tier response. The best world practices and Russian regulatory approaches were outlined and compared. Corresponding algorithms were developed and their application in pipelines was presented. The algorithm combines expert's skills and spill trajectory modeling with the net environmental benefit analysis principle into the incident specific emergency response planning. 9 refs., 13 tabs., 2 figs

  1. Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russell, K.D.; McKay, M.K.; Sattison, M.B.; Skinner, N.L.; Wood, S.T.; Rasmuson, D.M.

    1992-01-01

    The Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) is a state-of-the-art, microcomputer-based probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model development and analysis tool to address key nuclear plant safety issues. IRRAS is an integrated software tool that gives the user the ability to create and analyze fault trees and accident sequences using a microcomputer. This program provides functions that range from graphical fault tree construction to cut set generation and quantification. Version 1.0 of the IRRAS program was released in February of 1987. Since that time, many user comments and enhancements have been incorporated into the program providing a much more powerful and user-friendly system. This version has been designated IRRAS 4.0 and is the subject of this Reference Manual. Version 4.0 of IRRAS provides the same capabilities as Version 1.0 and adds a relational data base facility for managing the data, improved functionality, and improved algorithm performance

  2. Zero risk fuel fabrication: a systems analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1979-01-01

    Zero risk is a concept used to ensure that system requirements are developed through a systems approach such that the choice(s) among alternatives represents the balanced viewpoints of performance, achievability and risk. Requirements to ensure characteristics such as stringent accountability, low personnel exposure and etc. are needed to guide the development of component and subsystems for future LMFBR fuel supply systems. To establish a consistent and objective set of requirements, RF and M-TMC has initiated a systems requirements analysis activity. This activity pivots on judgement and experience provided by a Task Force representing industrial companies engaged in fuel fabrication in licensed facilities. The Task Force members are listed in Appendix A. Input developed by this group is presented as a starting point for the systems requirements analysis

  3. Risk Analysis of Accounting Information System Infrastructure

    OpenAIRE

    MIHALACHE, Arsenie-Samoil

    2011-01-01

    National economy and security are fully dependent on information technology and infrastructure. At the core of the information infrastructure society relies on, we have the Internet, a system designed initially as a scientists’ forum for unclassified research. The use of communication networks and systems may lead to hazardous situations that generate undesirable effects such as communication systems breakdown, loss of data or taking the wrong decisions. The paper studies the risk analysis of...

  4. Risk analysis of external radiation therapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arvidsson, Marcus

    2011-09-01

    External radiation therapy is carried out via a complex treatment process in which many different groups of staff work together. Much of the work is dependent on and in collaboration with advanced technical equipment. The purpose of the research task has been to identify a process for external radiation therapy and to identify, test and analyze a suitable method for performing risk analysis of external radiation therapy

  5. Risk and value analysis of SETI

    Science.gov (United States)

    Billingham, J.

    1990-01-01

    This paper attempts to apply a traditional risk and value analysis to the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence--SETI. In view of the difficulties of assessing the probability of success, a comparison is made between SETI and a previous search for extraterrestrial life, the biological component of Project Viking. Our application of simple Utility Theory, given some reasonable assumptions, suggests that SETI is at least as worthwhile as the biological experiment on Viking.

  6. Applied decision analysis and risk evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferse, W.; Kruber, S.

    1995-01-01

    During 1994 the workgroup 'Applied Decision Analysis and Risk Evaluation; continued the work on the knowledge based decision support system XUMA-GEFA for the evaluation of the hazard potential of contaminated sites. Additionally a new research direction was started which aims at the support of a later stage of the treatment of contaminated sites: The clean-up decision. For the support of decisions arising at this stage, the methods of decision analysis will be used. Computational aids for evaluation and decision support were implemented and a case study at a waste disposal site in Saxony which turns out to be a danger for the surrounding groundwater ressource was initiated. (orig.)

  7. LANDSAFE: LANDING SITE RISK ANALYSIS SOFTWARE FRAMEWORK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Schmidt

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The European Space Agency (ESA is planning a Lunar Lander mission in the 2018 timeframe that will demonstrate precise soft landing at the polar regions of the Moon. To ensure a safe and successful landing a careful risk analysis has to be carried out. This is comprised of identifying favorable target areas and evaluating the surface conditions in these areas. Features like craters, boulders, steep slopes, rough surfaces and shadow areas have to be identified in order to assess the risk associated to a landing site in terms of a successful touchdown and subsequent surface operation of the lander. In addition, global illumination conditions at the landing site have to be simulated and analyzed. The Landing Site Risk Analysis software framework (LandSAfe is a system for the analysis, selection and certification of safe landing sites on the lunar surface. LandSAfe generates several data products including high resolution digital terrain models (DTMs, hazard maps, illumination maps, temperature maps and surface reflectance maps which assist the user in evaluating potential landing site candidates. This paper presents the LandSAfe system and describes the methods and products of the different modules. For one candidate landing site on the rim of Shackleton crater at the south pole of the Moon a high resolution DTM is showcased.

  8. Safety analysis and risk assessment handbook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, V.L.; Colwell, R.G.; Dickey, R.L.

    1997-01-01

    This Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) provides guidance to the safety analyst at the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site (RFETS) in the preparation of safety analyses and risk assessments. Although the older guidance (the Rocky Flats Risk Assessment Guide) continues to be used for updating the Final Safety Analysis Reports developed in the mid-1980s, this new guidance is used with all new authorization basis documents. With the mission change at RFETS came the need to establish new authorization basis documents for its facilities, whose functions had changed. The methodology and databases for performing the evaluations that support the new authorization basis documents had to be standardized, to avoid the use of different approaches and/or databases for similar accidents in different facilities. This handbook presents this new standardized approach. The handbook begins with a discussion of the requirements of the different types of authorization basis documents and how to choose the one appropriate for the facility to be evaluated. It then walks the analyst through the process of identifying all the potential hazards in the facility, classifying them, and choosing the ones that need to be analyzed further. It then discusses the methods for evaluating accident initiation and progression and covers the basic steps in a safety analysis, including consequence and frequency binning and risk ranking. The handbook lays out standardized approaches for determining the source terms of the various accidents (including airborne release fractions, leakpath factors, etc.), the atmospheric dispersion factors appropriate for Rocky Flats, and the methods for radiological and chemical consequence assessments. The radiological assessments use a radiological open-quotes templateclose quotes, a spreadsheet that incorporates the standard values of parameters, whereas the chemical assessments use the standard codes ARCHIE and ALOHA

  9. Risk analysis of nuclear safeguards regulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al-Ayat, R.A.; Altman, W.D.; Judd, B.R.

    1982-06-01

    The Aggregated Systems Model (ASM), a probabilisitic risk analysis tool for nuclear safeguards, was applied to determine benefits and costs of proposed amendments to NRC regulations governing nuclear material control and accounting systems. The objective of the amendments was to improve the ability to detect insiders attempting to steal large quantities of special nuclear material (SNM). Insider threats range from likely events with minor consequences to unlikely events with catastrophic consequences. Moreover, establishing safeguards regulations is complicated by uncertainties in threats, safeguards performance, and consequences, and by the subjective judgments and difficult trade-offs between risks and safeguards costs. The ASM systematically incorporates these factors in a comprehensive, analytical framework. The ASM was used to evaluate the effectiveness of current safeguards and to quantify the risk of SNM theft. Various modifications designed to meet the objectives of the proposed amendments to reduce that risk were analyzed. Safeguards effectiveness was judged in terms of the probability of detecting and preventing theft, the expected time to detection, and the expected quantity of SNM diverted in a year. Data were gathered in tours and interviews at NRC-licensed facilities. The assessment at each facility was begun by carefully selecting scenarios representing the range of potential insider threats. A team of analysts and facility managers assigned probabilities for detection and prevention events in each scenario. Using the ASM we computed the measures of system effectiveness and identified cost-effective safeguards modifications that met the objectives of the proposed amendments

  10. AGROFOREST SYSTEM INVESTMENT ANALYSIS UNDER RISK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luiz Moreira Coelho Junior

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Agroforestry System is the ecological and economical interaction of the use of the land, with the combination ofagriculture, livestock and forest production, in temporary sequence and in a simultaneous way. The studies of investments in projectsassume the existence of risks and uncertainties. An alternative to reduce the risk in the forest investment is the association with theagricultural. This work analyzed the situations of risk of a system agroflorestal. Monte Carlo s method comes from the theory ofsimulations and stands out as a powerful and useful tool to provide a distribution of probabilities for the analysis of decision. A totalof 10,000 interactions of the Net Present Value (VPL, of Internal Rate of Return (TIR and of the Equivalent Periodic Benefit (BPEwere made in order to establish the probability distribution. The results presented 78.65% of chance of VPL being US$ 1,410.00;77.56% of chance of TIR being 36.36%, and; 75.39% of chance of BPE being US$ 309.70; the agroforestry system presented lowinvestment risk; and the livestock is the main product of the agrossilvopastoril system, followed by charcoal.

  11. Approach to uncertainty in risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rish, W.R.

    1988-08-01

    In the Fall of 1985 EPA's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) initiated a project to develop a formal approach to dealing with uncertainties encountered when estimating and evaluating risks to human health and the environment. Based on a literature review of modeling uncertainty, interviews with ORP technical and management staff, and input from experts on uncertainty analysis, a comprehensive approach was developed. This approach recognizes by design the constraints on budget, time, manpower, expertise, and availability of information often encountered in ''real world'' modeling. It is based on the observation that in practice risk modeling is usually done to support a decision process. As such, the approach focuses on how to frame a given risk modeling problem, how to use that framing to select an appropriate mixture of uncertainty analyses techniques, and how to integrate the techniques into an uncertainty assessment that effectively communicates important information and insight to decision-makers. The approach is presented in this report. Practical guidance on characterizing and analyzing uncertainties about model form and quantities and on effectively communicating uncertainty analysis results is included. Examples from actual applications are presented.

  12. Approach to uncertainty in risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rish, W.R.

    1988-08-01

    In the Fall of 1985 EPA's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) initiated a project to develop a formal approach to dealing with uncertainties encountered when estimating and evaluating risks to human health and the environment. Based on a literature review of modeling uncertainty, interviews with ORP technical and management staff, and input from experts on uncertainty analysis, a comprehensive approach was developed. This approach recognizes by design the constraints on budget, time, manpower, expertise, and availability of information often encountered in ''real world'' modeling. It is based on the observation that in practice risk modeling is usually done to support a decision process. As such, the approach focuses on how to frame a given risk modeling problem, how to use that framing to select an appropriate mixture of uncertainty analyses techniques, and how to integrate the techniques into an uncertainty assessment that effectively communicates important information and insight to decision-makers. The approach is presented in this report. Practical guidance on characterizing and analyzing uncertainties about model form and quantities and on effectively communicating uncertainty analysis results is included. Examples from actual applications are presented

  13. System Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krantz, E.A.; Russell, K.D.; Stewart, H.D.; Van Siclen, V.S.

    1986-01-01

    Utilization of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) related information in the day-to-day operation of plant systems has, in the past, been impracticable due to the size of the computers needed to run PRA codes. This paper discusses a microcomputer-based database system which can greatly enhance the capability of operators or regulators to incorporate PRA methodologies into their routine decision making. This system is called the System Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) system. SARA was developed by EG and G Idaho, Inc. at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory to facilitate the study of frequency and consequence analyses of accident sequences from a large number of light water reactors (LWRs) in this country. This information is being amassed by several studies sponsored by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC). To meet the need of portability and accessibility, and to perform the variety of calculations necessary, it was felt that a microcomputer-based system would be most suitable

  14. Methodologies for risk analysis in slope instability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernabeu Garcia, M.; Diaz Torres, J. A.

    2014-01-01

    This paper is an approach to the different methodologies used in conducting landslide risk maps so that the reader can get a basic knowledge about how to proceed in its development. The landslide hazard maps are increasingly demanded by governments. This is because due to climate change, deforestation and the pressure exerted by the growth of urban centers, damage caused by natural phenomena is increasing each year, making this area of work a field of study with increasing importance. To explain the process of mapping a journey through each of the phases of which it is composed is made: from the study of the types of slope movements and the necessary management of geographic information systems (GIS) inventories and landslide susceptibility analysis, threat, vulnerability and risk. (Author)

  15. Model risk analysis for risk management and option pricing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kerkhof, F.L.J.

    2003-01-01

    Due to the growing complexity of products in financial markets, market participants rely more and more on quantitative models for trading and risk management decisions. This introduces a fairly new type of risk, namely, model risk. In the first part of this thesis we investigate the quantitative

  16. Nuclear risk analysis of the Ulysses mission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bartram, B.W.; Vaughan, F.R.; Englehart, D.R.W.

    1991-01-01

    The use of a radioisotope thermoelectric generator fueled with plutonium-238 dioxide on the Space Shuttle-launched Ulysses mission implies some level of risk due to potential accidents. This paper describes the method used to quantify risks in the Ulysses mission Final Safety Analysis Report prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy. The starting point for the analysis described herein is following input of source term probability distributions from the General Electric Company. A Monte Carlo technique is used to develop probability distributions of radiological consequences for a range of accident scenarios thoughout the mission. Factors affecting radiological consequences are identified, the probability distribution of the effect of each factor determined, and the functional relationship among all the factors established. The probability distributions of all the factor effects are then combined using a Monte Carlo technique. The results of the analysis are presented in terms of complementary cumulative distribution functions (CCDF) by mission sub-phase, phase, and the overall mission. The CCDFs show the total probability that consequences (calculated health effects) would be equal to or greater than a given value

  17. Risk management and analysis: risk assessment (qualitative and quantitative)

    OpenAIRE

    Valentin Mazareanu

    2007-01-01

    We use to define risk as the possibility of suffering a loss. Starting this, risk management is defined as a business process whose purpose is to ensure that the organization is protected against risks and their effects. In order to prioritize, to develop a response plan and after that to monitor the identified risks we need to asses them. But at this point a question is born: should I choose a qualitative approach or a quantitative one? This paper will make a short overview over the risk eva...

  18. RISK ANALYSIS APPLIED IN OIL EXPLORATION AND PRODUCTION

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ES Obe

    aDepartment of Civil Engineering, University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Enugu State, Nigeria. ... The analysis in this work is ... risk analysis, oil field, risk management, projects, investment opportunity. 1. .... own merit but since the company has limited.

  19. Transtornos mentais como fatores de risco para o desenvolvimento de abuso/dependência de cocaína: estudo caso-controle Mental disorders as risk factors for the development of cocaine abuse/dependence: case-control study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia S Lopes

    1999-10-01

    Full Text Available OBJETIVO: Avaliar o papel dos transtornos mentais e da dependência ao álcool como possíveis fatores de risco para o abuso/dependência de cocaína. MÉTODOS: Utilizou-se o desenho caso-controle e a técnica de bola-de-neve (snowball technique para selecionar uma amostra de usuários de cocaína não tratados na comunidade (casos e parear casos e controles por sexo, idade e amizade. A coleta de dados foi feita através da utilização do questionário CIDI (Composite International Diagnostic Interview que gera diagnósticos de acordo com os critérios do Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders-III-R. A análise dos dados foi feita através de regressão logística condicional. RESULTADOS: O estudo incluiu 208 indivíduos. Os principais resultados mostraram que história passada de dependência ao álcool era o principal fator associado a um aumento no risco de desenvolvimento de abuso de cocaína (OR=15,1; IC 95% 3,8-60,2; nenhum outro transtorno mental isolado manteve-se significativamente associado ao aumento deste risco após a análise multivariada. Aumento no risco de abuso de cocaína também foi encontrado entre os indivíduos que relataram pensamentos suicidas (OR=3,1; IC 95% 0,91-10,8, sugerindo associação entre quadros mais graves de depressão e abuso de cocaína. CONCLUSÕES: Esses achados sugerem que os programas voltados para a prevenção e tratamento do abuso de cocaína devem estar preparados para o manejo de questões relacionadas à co-morbidade do abuso de drogas com o álcool e outros distúrbios psiquiátricos.OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the role of psychiatric disorders and alcohol dependence as possible risk factors for cocaine abuse/dependence. METHODS: The case-control study used the "snowball" technique in order to select untreated cocaine users (cases and to match sex, age and friendship. Information was gathered using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI, and computer diagnosis were

  20. Analysis and risk management after Fukushima

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nelson, P. F.

    2011-11-01

    This article describes the impact in the nuclear industry after the only accidents with affectation to the public: the Three Mile Island and Chernobyl. and discusses what comes after Fukushima with regard to the Safety Probabilistic Analysis (Spa) and their use in the decisions taking. A reference to the standard ASME/ANS of Spa is made and the possible changes due to the learned lessons after the Fukushima accident. The main changes are described in the art state and the priorities of the Spa studies. These include the change in the mission time of the emergency systems, the necessity to model the alternating systems, the risk consideration of a site with multi-units, the importance of making a Spa level 3 and the Spa of external events. The Spa is the key tool of the discipline of risk management, but given the learned lessons, is more necessary in all the aspects of the operation and surveillance of a nuclear power plant. A strategy is presented to improve the response to a severe accident, that includes consider the risks of the specific nuclear power plant. (Author)

  1. Risk Analysis Approach to Rainwater Harvesting Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nadia Ursino

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Urban rainwater reuse preserves water resources and promotes sustainable development in rapidly growing urban areas. The efficiency of a large number of urban water reuse systems, operating under different climate and demand conditions, is evaluated here on the base of a new risk analysis approach. Results obtained by probability analysis (PA indicate that maximum efficiency in low demanding scenarios is above 0.5 and a threshold, distinguishing low from high demanding scenarios, indicates that in low demanding scenarios no significant improvement in performance may be attained by increasing the storage capacity of rainwater harvesting tanks. Threshold behaviour is displayed when tank storage capacity is designed to match both the average collected volume and the average reuse volume. The low demand limit cannot be achieved under climate and operating conditions characterized by a disproportion between harvesting and demand volume.

  2. Probabilistic methods in fire-risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brandyberry, M.D.

    1989-01-01

    The first part of this work outlines a method for assessing the frequency of ignition of a consumer product in a building and shows how the method would be used in an example scenario utilizing upholstered furniture as the product and radiant auxiliary heating devices (electric heaters, wood stoves) as the ignition source. Deterministic thermal models of the heat-transport processes are coupled with parameter uncertainty analysis of the models and with a probabilistic analysis of the events involved in a typical scenario. This leads to a distribution for the frequency of ignition for the product. In second part, fire-risk analysis as currently used in nuclear plants is outlines along with a discussion of the relevant uncertainties. The use of the computer code COMPBRN is discussed for use in the fire-growth analysis along with the use of response-surface methodology to quantify uncertainties in the code's use. Generalized response surfaces are developed for temperature versus time for a cable tray, as well as a surface for the hot gas layer temperature and depth for a room of arbitrary geometry within a typical nuclear power plant compartment. These surfaces are then used to simulate the cable tray damage time in a compartment fire experiment

  3. Risk as analysis and risk as feelings: some thoughts about affect, reason, risk, and rationality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slovic, Paul; Finucane, Melissa L; Peters, Ellen; MacGregor, Donald G

    2004-04-01

    Modern theories in cognitive psychology and neuroscience indicate that there are two fundamental ways in which human beings comprehend risk. The "analytic system" uses algorithms and normative rules, such as probability calculus, formal logic, and risk assessment. It is relatively slow, effortful, and requires conscious control. The "experiential system" is intuitive, fast, mostly automatic, and not very accessible to conscious awareness. The experiential system enabled human beings to survive during their long period of evolution and remains today the most natural and most common way to respond to risk. It relies on images and associations, linked by experience to emotion and affect (a feeling that something is good or bad). This system represents risk as a feeling that tells us whether it is safe to walk down this dark street or drink this strange-smelling water. Proponents of formal risk analysis tend to view affective responses to risk as irrational. Current wisdom disputes this view. The rational and the experiential systems operate in parallel and each seems to depend on the other for guidance. Studies have demonstrated that analytic reasoning cannot be effective unless it is guided by emotion and affect. Rational decision making requires proper integration of both modes of thought. Both systems have their advantages, biases, and limitations. Now that we are beginning to understand the complex interplay between emotion and reason that is essential to rational behavior, the challenge before us is to think creatively about what this means for managing risk. On the one hand, how do we apply reason to temper the strong emotions engendered by some risk events? On the other hand, how do we infuse needed "doses of feeling" into circumstances where lack of experience may otherwise leave us too "coldly rational"? This article addresses these important questions.

  4. Overcoming barriers to integrating economic analysis into risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffmann, Sandra

    2011-09-01

    Regulatory risk analysis is designed to provide decisionmakers with a clearer understanding of how policies are likely to affect risk. The systems that produce risk are biological, physical, and social and economic. As a result, risk analysis is an inherently interdisciplinary task. Yet in practice, risk analysis has been interdisciplinary in only limited ways. Risk analysis could provide more accurate assessments of risk if there were better integration of economics and other social sciences into risk assessment itself. This essay examines how discussions about risk analysis policy have influenced the roles of various disciplines in risk analysis. It explores ways in which integrated bio/physical-economic modeling could contribute to more accurate assessments of risk. It reviews examples of the kind of integrated economics-bio/physical modeling that could be used to enhance risk assessment. The essay ends with a discussion of institutional barriers to greater integration of economic modeling into risk assessment and provides suggestions on how these might be overcome. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  5. Economic analysis and management of climatic risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hourcade, J.C. (Centre International de Recherche sur l' Environnement et le Developpement, 92 - Montrouge (France))

    1994-01-01

    This paper aims at framing the collective decision problem in the face of climate change. It shows why it would be irrelevant to handle it in the form of a classical decision under uncertainty framework where a cost-benefit analysis is carried out including probability distribution on damages and risk aversion coefficients. A sequential approach to policy making is then proposed as an alternative in order to account for the inertia of socio-economic dynamics and the value of information. A simple model illustrates the gap between these two approaches; it shows the importance of combining the investments on climatic research, innovation policies and so-called 'no regret' short term decisions. It shows the fact that, even if they can be considered as quantitatively moderate, these potentials have a critical impact on long term viability of development; they embed a very high information value, lengthening the learning time vis-a-vis potentially major but controversial risks. (author). 21 refs., 3 figs.

  6. Risk oriented analysis of the SNR-300

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koeberlein, K.

    1982-01-01

    The Fact Finding Committee on 'Future Nuclear Power Policy' established by the 8th German Federal Parliament in its report of June 1980 among other items published the recommendation to commission a 'risk oriented analysis' of the SNR-300 in order to enable a pragmatic comparison to be made of the safety of the German prototype fast breeder reactor and a modern light water reactor (a Biblis B PWR). The Federal Minister for Research and Technology in August 1981 officially commissioned the Gesellschaft fuer Reaktorsicherheit (GRS) to conduct the study. Following a recommendation by the Fact Finding Committee, additional studies were performed also by a group of opponents of the breeder reactor. On the instigation of the group of opponents the delivery date of the study was altered several times and finally set at April 30, 1982. GRS submitted its report by this deadline. However, a joint report by the two groups could not be compiled, as had been requested by the client, because the contributions of the opponents were not made available until mid-May 1982 and then only as an 'interim report'. In summary, the GRS study indicates that the frequency and severity of major accidents is lower for the SNR-300 at the Kalkar site than for a PWR as covered in the German Nuclear Power Plant Risk Study. (orig.) [de

  7. Development of probabilistic risk analysis library

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soga, Shota; Kirimoto, Yukihiro; Kanda, Kenichi

    2015-01-01

    We developed a library that is designed to perform level 1 Probabilistic Risk Analysis using Binary Decision Diagram (BDD). In particular, our goal is to develop a library that will allow Japanese electric utilities to take the advantages of BDD that can solve Event Tree (ET) and Fault Tree (FT) models analytically. Using BDD, the library supports negation in FT which allows more flexible modeling of ET/FT. The library is written by C++ within an object-oriented framework using open source software. The library itself is a header-only library so that Japanese electric utilities can take advantages of its transparency to speed up development and to build their own software for their specific needs. In this report, the basic capabilities of the library is briefly described. In addition, several applications of the library are demonstrated including validation of MCS evaluation of PRA model and evaluation of corrective and preventive maintenance considering common cause failure. (author)

  8. Analysis of uncertainty in modeling perceived risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Melnyk, R.; Sandquist, G.M.

    2005-01-01

    Expanding on a mathematical model developed for quantifying and assessing perceived risks, the distribution functions, variances, and uncertainties associated with estimating the model parameters are quantified. The analytical model permits the identification and assignment of any number of quantifiable risk perception factors that can be incorporated within standard risk methodology. Those risk perception factors associated with major technical issues are modeled using lognormal probability density functions to span the potentially large uncertainty variations associated with these risk perceptions. The model quantifies the logic of public risk perception and provides an effective means for measuring and responding to perceived risks. (authors)

  9. Risk Analysis for Performance Improvement in a Romanian Pharmaceutical Company

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dana Corina Deselnicu

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents risk management analysis carried out to investigate the operations of a Romanian company dealing with the distribution of pharmaceutical products. The main risks challenging the company were identified, described and classified, providing a scientific base for further analysis. Then, the identified inherent risks were evaluated using tools as the risk index method and the risk matrix in order to emphasize their tolerance level. According to the results of the evaluation, risk mitigation strategies and measures were advanced for the management of the analysed risks. Relevant conclusions were drawn from the experience.

  10. ANALYSIS AND MANAGEMENT RISK IN INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS

    OpenAIRE

    Lăpăduşi Mihaela Loredana,; Căruntu Constantin

    2009-01-01

    The risk is one of the most controversial issues for all persons involved both in domestic and international world economic affairs. The need to analyze, understand and effectively manage risk is growing, the ultimate aim being to obtain a higher degree of successThe risk means exposure to an uncertain future, the opportunity to face danger or suffering a loss ( "Risk - possibility of loss or injury", Webster's, 1995) or the chance that things go wrong ( "Risk is the change that something wil...

  11. Insurability of Cyber Risk: An Empirical Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Biener, Christian; Eling, Martin; Wirfs, Jan Hendrik

    2015-01-01

    This paper discusses the adequacy of insurance for managing cyber risk. To this end, we extract 994 cases of cyber losses from an operational risk database and analyse their statistical properties. Based on the empirical results and recent literature, we investigate the insurability of cyber risk by systematically reviewing the set of criteria introduced by Berliner (1982). Our findings emphasise the distinct characteristics of cyber risks compared with other operational risks and bring to li...

  12. HANFORD SAFETY ANALYSIS & RISK ASSESSMENT HANDBOOK (SARAH)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    EVANS, C B

    2004-12-21

    The purpose of the Hanford Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) is to support the development of safety basis documentation for Hazard Category 2 and 3 (HC-2 and 3) U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear facilities to meet the requirements of 10 CFR 830, ''Nuclear Safety Management''. Subpart B, ''Safety Basis Requirements.'' Consistent with DOE-STD-3009-94, Change Notice 2, ''Preparation Guide for U.S. Department of Energy Nonreactor Nuclear Facility Documented Safety Analyses'' (STD-3009), and DOE-STD-3011-2002, ''Guidance for Preparation of Basis for Interim Operation (BIO) Documents'' (STD-3011), the Hanford SARAH describes methodology for performing a safety analysis leading to development of a Documented Safety Analysis (DSA) and derivation of Technical Safety Requirements (TSR), and provides the information necessary to ensure a consistently rigorous approach that meets DOE expectations. The DSA and TSR documents, together with the DOE-issued Safety Evaluation Report (SER), are the basic components of facility safety basis documentation. For HC-2 or 3 nuclear facilities in long-term surveillance and maintenance (S&M), for decommissioning activities, where source term has been eliminated to the point that only low-level, residual fixed contamination is present, or for environmental remediation activities outside of a facility structure, DOE-STD-1120-98, ''Integration of Environment, Safety, and Health into Facility Disposition Activities'' (STD-1120), may serve as the basis for the DSA. HC-2 and 3 environmental remediation sites also are subject to the hazard analysis methodologies of this standard.

  13. 49 CFR 260.17 - Credit risk premium analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Credit risk premium analysis. 260.17 Section 260... Financial Assistance § 260.17 Credit risk premium analysis. (a) When Federal appropriations are not available to cover the total subsidy cost, the Administrator will determine the Credit Risk Premium...

  14. Integration of risk analysis, land use planning, and cost analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rajen, G.; Sanchez, G.

    1994-01-01

    The Department of Energy (DOE) and the Pueblo of San Ildefonso (Pueblo), which is a sovereign Indian tribe, have often been involved in adversarial situations regarding the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The Pueblo shares a common boundary with the LANL. This paper describes an on-going project that could alter the DOE and the Pueblo's relationship to one of cooperation; and unite the DOE and the Pueblo in a Pollution Prevention/Waste Minimization, and Integrated Risk Analysis and Land Use Planning effort

  15. Risk uncertainty analysis methods for NUREG-1150

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benjamin, A.S.; Boyd, G.J.

    1987-01-01

    Evaluation and display of risk uncertainties for NUREG-1150 constitute a principal focus of the Severe Accident Risk Rebaselining/Risk Reduction Program (SARRP). Some of the principal objectives of the uncertainty evaluation are: (1) to provide a quantitative estimate that reflects, for those areas considered, a credible and realistic range of uncertainty in risk; (2) to rank the various sources of uncertainty with respect to their importance for various measures of risk; and (3) to characterize the state of understanding of each aspect of the risk assessment for which major uncertainties exist. This paper describes the methods developed to fulfill these objectives

  16. Conceptual risk assessment framework for global change risk analysis SRP

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Elphinstone, CD

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available on two of the most important underlying factors supporting the ecosystem: productivity and hypoxia afiecting harmful algae blooms (HABs) and the rock lobsters. The risk regimes are a function of two time scales | a ‘high’ wind stress in early summer... is a condition which can lead to various negative impacts depending on the particular marine life, for instance rock lobsters stranding. The exact deflnitions of the two seasonal occurrences resulting in the risk event, ‘high’ wind stress in ‘early...

  17. Public perception on the benefits and risks of nuclear power plants. A simplified study; Um estudo simplificado da percepcao publica dos beneficios e riscos de centrais termonucleares

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ribeiro Junior, Joaquim Apparecido

    2007-07-01

    concerned to the public perception of a nuclear power plant risks. The analysis of the survey results and the utilization of a model inspired by the marketing way of value communication suggest a different approach to the communication with the public concerning to nuclear power plants. In this proposal, named Value Strategy, a matrix of risks vs. benefits is segmented in nine regions, where the central region corresponds to the current situation and the others show the possible (hypothetical) future situations after the installation of a nuclear power plant. There are three favorable regions, inductive of acceptance and three unfavorable ones, or routed to rejection. Based on the understanding of the targeted public, as partially revealed by the survey, different nuances can be emphasized in the communication to maximize its effect, without any detour to ethical behavior. Results also disclose various complementary subsidies to help the communication strategy, mainly regarded to the communication agents and to the more effective argument areas according to factors such as: sex, age ranges and educational level. (author)

  18. Study and development of a risk assessment model for intra skull radiosurgery; Estudo e desenvolvimento de um modelo de analise de risco para radiocirurgia intracraniana

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Teixeira, Flavia Cristina da Silva

    2015-11-01

    The reported events in radiotherapy that constitute accidents or incidents have increased worldwide in the last 25 years. Most of these events resulted from human failure and have happened in radiotherapy centers that use high technologies. The radiotherapy Quality Management needs a prospective approach through risk analysis. This approach is supported by recent publications as this actually extremely needed due the large number of accidents. Because of the complexity of the process in radiotherapy, the search for quality of care in order to ensure patient safety is one of the most discussed topics worldwide. Although only 14% of radiotherapy centers in Brazil offer treatments with intracranial radiosurgery technique (SRS), studies about the quality of care related to the safety of patients undergoing this technique is of great importance. Any deviations from the prescribed dose using SRS technique is considered more critical than in other methods of radiation treatment, as the delivered doses in SRS are higher, in the range of 10 Gy to 40 Gy, to lesions up to 50 mm in diameter, which are delivered in a single fraction or in five fractions. In view of those information, this work aims to satisfy the new Quality Management paradigm by developing a risk analysis model, and a Quality Index for SRS in Brazil, through the techniques of Process Map and FMEA used in the TG100/AAPM. The study was performed in three high technology reference radiotherapy centers, two located in Rio de Janeiro city and one in Sao Paulo city. A SRS Process Map was identified for each radiotherapy center, and then FMEA technique was applied in every subprocesses identified on the map. >From NPR values obtained by the FMEA a ranking of failure modes was held. Failure modes with NPR ≥ 100 and S ≥ 7 were chosen as priority to implement safety strategies. From the scores assigned to the S parameter in the implementation of FMEA a Severity Index (SI) and a Quality Index (QI) were created from

  19. Multiple Sclerosis Increases Fracture Risk: A Meta-Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guixian Dong

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. The association between multiple sclerosis (MS and fracture risk has been reported, but results of previous studies remain controversial and ambiguous. To assess the association between MS and fracture risk, a meta-analysis was performed. Method. Based on comprehensive searches of the PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science, we identified outcome data from all articles estimating the association between MS and fracture risk. The pooled risk ratios (RRs with 95% confidence intervals (CIs were calculated. Results. A significant association between MS and fracture risk was found. This result remained statistically significant when the adjusted RRs were combined. Subgroup analysis stratified by the site of fracture suggested significant associations between MS and tibia fracture risk, femur fracture risk, hip fracture risk, pelvis fracture risk, vertebrae fracture risk, and humerus fracture risk. In the subgroup analysis by gender, female MS patients had increased fracture risk. When stratified by history of drug use, use of antidepressants, hypnotics/anxiolytics, anticonvulsants, and glucocorticoids increased the risk of fracture risk in MS patients. Conclusions. This meta-analysis demonstrated that MS was significantly associated with fracture risk.

  20. Technical Overview of Ecological Risk Assessment - Analysis Phase: Exposure Characterization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Exposure Characterization is the second major component of the analysis phase of a risk assessment. For a pesticide risk assessment, the exposure characterization describes the potential or actual contact of a pesticide with a plant, animal, or media.

  1. Structural reliability analysis applied to pipeline risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gardiner, M. [GL Industrial Services, Loughborough (United Kingdom); Mendes, Renato F.; Donato, Guilherme V.P. [PETROBRAS S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) of pipelines requires two main components to be provided. These are models of the consequences that follow from some loss of containment incident, and models for the likelihood of such incidents occurring. This paper describes how PETROBRAS have used Structural Reliability Analysis for the second of these, to provide pipeline- and location-specific predictions of failure frequency for a number of pipeline assets. This paper presents an approach to estimating failure rates for liquid and gas pipelines, using Structural Reliability Analysis (SRA) to analyze the credible basic mechanisms of failure such as corrosion and mechanical damage. SRA is a probabilistic limit state method: for a given failure mechanism it quantifies the uncertainty in parameters to mathematical models of the load-resistance state of a structure and then evaluates the probability of load exceeding resistance. SRA can be used to benefit the pipeline risk management process by optimizing in-line inspection schedules, and as part of the design process for new construction in pipeline rights of way that already contain multiple lines. A case study is presented to show how the SRA approach has recently been used on PETROBRAS pipelines and the benefits obtained from it. (author)

  2. A Roadmap of Risk Diagnostic Methods: Developing an Integrated View of Risk Identification and Analysis Techniques

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Williams, Ray; Ambrose, Kate; Bentrem, Laura

    2004-01-01

    ...), which is envisioned to be a comprehensive reference tool for risk identification and analysis (RI AND A) techniques. Program Managers (PMs) responsible for developing or acquiring software-intensive systems typically identify risks in different ways...

  3. Chemical risk evaluation, importance of the risk analysis framework uses: Latin America development restrictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carrillo, M.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation is about reach and results of the risk analysis in Venezuela, chemical dangers in food, human damage, injuries , technologies news in fodd development, toxicity, microbiological risk, technical recommendations

  4. Putting problem formulation at the forefront of GMO risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tepfer, Mark; Racovita, Monica; Craig, Wendy

    2013-01-01

    When applying risk assessment and the broader process of risk analysis to decisions regarding the dissemination of genetically modified organisms (GMOs), the process has a tendency to become remarkably complex. Further, as greater numbers of countries consider authorising the large-scale dissemination of GMOs, and as GMOs with more complex traits reach late stages of development, there has been increasing concern about the burden posed by the complexity of risk analysis. We present here an improved approach for GMO risk analysis that gives a central role to problem formulation. Further, the risk analysis strategy has been clarified and simplified in order to make rigorously scientific risk assessment and risk analysis more broadly accessible to diverse stakeholder groups.

  5. Análise dos componentes principais e métodos multicritério ordinais no estudo de organossolos e solos afins Principal component analysis and ordinal multicriteria methods to study organosols and related soils

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gustavo Souza Valladares

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available Uma importante propriedade dos Organossolos, e de outros solos com alto teor de C orgânico para predizer o potencial de uso e riscos de degradação, é o grau de subsidência (perda de massa e volume. Nos Organossolos ocorrem diferentes riscos de subsidência, resultantes de seus atributos, em especial da natureza da matéria orgânica e do ambiente de deposição. Este estudo foi realizado com dados de 19 perfis de solos de diferentes regiões do Brasil. Foram adotados os procedimentos da SBCS para descrição e coleta dos perfis, e os métodos analíticos da Embrapa Solos para caracterização dos solos. A análise dos componentes principais foi utilizada para agrupar os perfis com o auxílio de atributos morfológicos, físicos, químicos e do ambiente de ocorrência e mostrou-se adequada no agrupamento dos solos estudados com base em seus atributos, comparando-se com a sua taxonomia. Neste artigo foram usados os métodos multicritério ordinais de Borda, Condorcet e Copeland para ordenar, segundo o risco de subsidência, os perfis de Organossolos estudados. Os resultados mostram correlação entre os métodos (exceto Condorcet, que não foi capaz de ordenar as alternativas e o resíduo mínimo, parâmetro usual para avaliar subsidência. Isso indica eficácia para ordenar/classificar os perfis de solos estudados quanto ao risco de subsidência. Os métodos quantitativos utilizados neste trabalho mostraram-se promissores como ferramentas em estudos na Ciência do Solo.One important property of Organosols (Histosols (and soils with high content of organic carbon to predict use potential and degradation risks is the degree of subsidence (loss of mass and volume. In Organosols the subsidence risks vary according to the soil attributes, mainly the nature of organic matter and deposition environment. In this paper we studied 19 soil profiles from different parts of the country, collected and described according to procedures recommended by the

  6. Statistical models for competing risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sather, H.N.

    1976-08-01

    Research results on three new models for potential applications in competing risks problems. One section covers the basic statistical relationships underlying the subsequent competing risks model development. Another discusses the problem of comparing cause-specific risk structure by competing risks theory in two homogeneous populations, P1 and P2. Weibull models which allow more generality than the Berkson and Elveback models are studied for the effect of time on the hazard function. The use of concomitant information for modeling single-risk survival is extended to the multiple failure mode domain of competing risks. The model used to illustrate the use of this methodology is a life table model which has constant hazards within pre-designated intervals of the time scale. Two parametric models for bivariate dependent competing risks, which provide interesting alternatives, are proposed and examined

  7. Estudos de atmosfera

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Eduardo Riccioppo

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Joker e Estudos de balística possuíam formas distintas dos cadernos ou livros quando foram exibidos pela primeira vez, na mostra Dual Overdrive. De algum modo, o flagrante das imagens dos cartazes da campanha política parisiense e daquelas cusparadas sobre o asfalto era preservado no modo como eram mostrados os trabalhos, que repunham não apenas a orientação espacial dos objetos fotografados, mas, igualmente, sua escala: Joker apresentava-se na parede, em dimensões relativamente próximas às dos cartazes lambe-lambe que retratavam; e Estudos de balística, no chão da galeria, também com ampliação suficiente para que se tivesse a impressão de que se tratava de imagens “em tamanho real”.

  8. Computational Aspects of Dam Risk Analysis: Findings and Challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ignacio Escuder-Bueno

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, risk analysis techniques have proved to be a useful tool to inform dam safety management. This paper summarizes the outcomes of three themes related to dam risk analysis discussed in the Benchmark Workshops organized by the International Commission on Large Dams Technical Committee on “Computational Aspects of Analysis and Design of Dams.” In the 2011 Benchmark Workshop, estimation of the probability of failure of a gravity dam for the sliding failure mode was discussed. Next, in 2013, the discussion focused on the computational challenges of the estimation of consequences in dam risk analysis. Finally, in 2015, the probability of sliding and overtopping in an embankment was analyzed. These Benchmark Workshops have allowed a complete review of numerical aspects for dam risk analysis, showing that risk analysis methods are a very useful tool to analyze the risk of dam systems, including downstream consequence assessments and the uncertainty of structural models.

  9. Seismic risk analysis in the German risk study phase B

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hasser, D.; Liemersdorf, J.

    1989-01-01

    The paper discusses some aspects of the seismic risk part of the German risk study for nuclear power plants, phase B. First simplified analyses in phase A of the study allowed a rough classification of structures and systems of the PWR reference plant according to their seismic risk contribution. These studies were extended in phase B using improved models for the dynamic analyses of buildings, structures and components as well as for the probabilistic analyses of seismic loading, failure probabilities and event trees. The methodology of deriving probabilistic seismic load descriptions is explained and compared with the methods in phase A of the study and in other studies. Some details of the linear and nonlinear dynamic analyses of structures are reported, in order to demonstrate the influence of different assumptions for material behavior and failure criteria. The probabilistic structural and event tree analyses are discussed with respect to the distribution assumptions, acceptable simplifications, special results for the PWR reference plant and, finally, the influence of model uncertainties

  10. Automating risk analysis of software design models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frydman, Maxime; Ruiz, Guifré; Heymann, Elisa; César, Eduardo; Miller, Barton P

    2014-01-01

    The growth of the internet and networked systems has exposed software to an increased amount of security threats. One of the responses from software developers to these threats is the introduction of security activities in the software development lifecycle. This paper describes an approach to reduce the need for costly human expertise to perform risk analysis in software, which is common in secure development methodologies, by automating threat modeling. Reducing the dependency on security experts aims at reducing the cost of secure development by allowing non-security-aware developers to apply secure development with little to no additional cost, making secure development more accessible. To automate threat modeling two data structures are introduced, identification trees and mitigation trees, to identify threats in software designs and advise mitigation techniques, while taking into account specification requirements and cost concerns. These are the components of our model for automated threat modeling, AutSEC. We validated AutSEC by implementing it in a tool based on data flow diagrams, from the Microsoft security development methodology, and applying it to VOMS, a grid middleware component, to evaluate our model's performance.

  11. Evaluating the risks of clinical research: direct comparative analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rid, Annette; Abdoler, Emily; Roberson-Nay, Roxann; Pine, Daniel S; Wendler, David

    2014-09-01

    Many guidelines and regulations allow children and adolescents to be enrolled in research without the prospect of clinical benefit when it poses minimal risk. However, few systematic methods exist to determine when research risks are minimal. This situation has led to significant variation in minimal risk judgments, raising concern that some children are not being adequately protected. To address this concern, we describe a new method for implementing the widely endorsed "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk. This standard defines research risks as minimal when they do not exceed the risks posed by daily life activities or routine examinations. This study employed a conceptual and normative analysis, and use of an illustrative example. Different risks are composed of the same basic elements: Type, likelihood, and magnitude of harm. Hence, one can compare the risks of research and the risks of daily life by comparing the respective basic elements with each other. We use this insight to develop a systematic method, direct comparative analysis, for implementing the "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk. The method offers a way of evaluating research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities, such as the risk of experiencing anxiety, stress, or other psychological harm. We thus illustrate how direct comparative analysis can be applied in practice by using it to evaluate whether the anxiety induced by a respiratory CO2 challenge poses minimal or greater than minimal risks in children and adolescents. Direct comparative analysis is a systematic method for applying the "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk to research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities. It thereby offers a method to protect children and adolescents in research, while ensuring that important studies are not blocked because of unwarranted concerns about research risks.

  12. RISK ANALYSIS IN INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY AND COMMUNICATION OUTSOURCING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edmir Parada Vasques Prado

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available This research aims at evaluating the risk analysis process in Information Technology and Communication (ICT outsourcing conducted by organizations of the private sector. The research is characterized by being a descriptive, quantitative and transversal type study, which was used the survey method. Data were collected through questionnaire, the sample is not random and we used a convenience sampling process. The research made contributions to understanding the risk analysis process in ICT services outsourcing, and identified statistically significant relationships between risk analysis, organization's size and its industry, and between risk analysis and diversity of outsourced services

  13. Risk-based decision analysis for groundwater operable units

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiaramonte, G.R.

    1995-01-01

    This document proposes a streamlined approach and methodology for performing risk assessment in support of interim remedial measure (IRM) decisions involving the remediation of contaminated groundwater on the Hanford Site. This methodology, referred to as ''risk-based decision analysis,'' also supports the specification of target cleanup volumes and provides a basis for design and operation of the groundwater remedies. The risk-based decision analysis can be completed within a short time frame and concisely documented. The risk-based decision analysis is more versatile than the qualitative risk assessment (QRA), because it not only supports the need for IRMs, but also provides criteria for defining the success of the IRMs and provides the risk-basis for decisions on final remedies. For these reasons, it is proposed that, for groundwater operable units, the risk-based decision analysis should replace the more elaborate, costly, and time-consuming QRA

  14. A comparative analysis of risk and quality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lynette, Jennifer Elyse

    2017-01-01

    Within the field of emergency management and fire response, risk and quality are conceptualized to some degree in every response effort. Quality is viewed as a relatively new concept within the field of emergency management and fire response. Whereas, within this same field the concept of risk is....... This understanding can serve to facilitate more informed and effective decision making that incorporates both risk and quality before, during, and after emergency events....... independently, decision making and judgement processes have the potential to be positively impacted by furthering research and developing a deeper understanding of these constructs. By understanding risk management principles and combining that with a quality systems approach, decision making can be improved......Within the field of emergency management and fire response, risk and quality are conceptualized to some degree in every response effort. Quality is viewed as a relatively new concept within the field of emergency management and fire response. Whereas, within this same field the concept of risk...

  15. Risk analysis in transport and logistics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ene Andreea Bianca

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Globalization and production concentration have led to more efficient supply chain networks, which has led to the emergence of different types of risks. Although most companies have implemented special risk management programs, there may be events that can not be controlled by businesses, and unwanted consequences are not delayed.

  16. Prevalência e fatores de risco para a retinopatia da prematuridade: estudo com 450 pré-termos de muito baixo peso Prevalence and risk factors for retinopathy of prematurity: study with 450 very low birth weight preterm infants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    João Borges Fortes Filho

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available OBJETIVO:Analisar prevalência e fatores de risco para a retinopatia da prematuridade (ROP entre pré-termos com peso de nascimento (PN d"1.500 gramas e/ou idade gestacional (IG d"32 semanas admitidos em uma instituição hospitalar universitária de nível terciário. MÉTODOS: Estudo de coorte institucional, prospectivo e descritivo, realizado entre outubro de 2002 e julho de 2008, incluindo todos os pré-termos com PN d"1.500 gramas e/ou com IG d"32 semanas, que sobreviveram até a 42ª semana de IG corrigida. Foram determinadas a prevalência da ROP em seus vários estadiamentos evolutivos. Os principais fatores de risco para o surgimento da ROP no período pós-natal foram comparados por análises uni e multivariadas entre os pacientes que desenvolveram e os que não desenvolveram a doença. Para a análise das variáveis contínuas entre os dois grupos, foi usado o Teste t (Student para amostras independentes e para a comparação das variáveis categóricas, o Qui-Quadrado. A regressão logística incluiu as variáveis com significância após a análise univariada. RESULTADOS:Foram estudadas 450 crianças cuja média de PN e IG foram 1.213,50 gramas (± 277,4 e 30,3 semanas (± 2,2, respectivamente. A ROP, em qualquer estadiamento, afetou 24,2% das crianças. Doença limiar, necessitando de tratamento pela fotocoagulação, ocorreu em 24 pacientes (5,3%. Após análise univariada, a IG, o PN, o ganho ponderal do nascimento até a 6ª semana de vida, o uso de oxigenioterapia em ventilação mecânica e de indometacina, as ocorrências de sepse e hemorragia intraventricular e a necessidade de transfusões sanguíneas, estiveram associados com a ROP. A regressão logística confirmou a importância da IG (OR: 0,856; IC95%: 1,141-1,447; P=0,014, do baixo ganho ponderal (OR: 0,997; IC95%: 0,996-0,999; PPURPOSE: This study aims to analyze prevalence and risk factors for retinopathy of prematurity (ROP among preterms with birth weight (BW d"1

  17. Applications of probabilistic risk analysis in nuclear criticality safety design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, J.K.

    1992-01-01

    Many documents have been prepared that try to define the scope of the criticality analysis and that suggest adding probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) to the deterministic safety analysis. The report of the US Department of Energy (DOE) AL 5481.1B suggested that an accident is credible if the occurrence probability is >1 x 10 -6 /yr. The draft DOE 5480 safety analysis report suggested that safety analyses should include the application of methods such as deterministic safety analysis, risk assessment, reliability engineering, common-cause failure analysis, human reliability analysis, and human factor safety analysis techniques. The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) report NRC SG830.110 suggested that major safety analysis methods should include but not be limited to risk assessment, reliability engineering, and human factor safety analysis. All of these suggestions have recommended including PRA in the traditional criticality analysis

  18. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

    2016-04-01

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  19. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

    2016-01-01

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  20. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy, E-mail: gasandylang@live.com; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Diponegoro University, Semarang (Indonesia); Kim, Seon Jin [Department of Mechanical & Automotive Engineering of Pukyong National University (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-04-19

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  1. Essays on Systemic Risk : An analysis from multiple perspectives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. Muns (Sander)

    2016-01-01

    markdownabstractThis thesis is about systemic risk in the financial sector. It considers several aspects of systemic risk. It is a building block for an analysis of the impact of systemic risk on the real economy. It appears that stocks in the financial industry show a strong interdependence

  2. Analysis and management of risks experienced in tunnel construction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cagatay Pamukcu

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In this study, first of all, the definitions of "risk", "risk analysis", "risk assessment" and "risk management" were made to avoid any confusions about these terms and significance of risk analysis and management in engineering projects was emphasized. Then, both qualitative and quantitative risk analysis techniques were mentioned and within the scope of the study, Event Tree Analysis method was selected in order to analyze the risks regarding TBM (Tunnel Boring Machine operations in tunnel construction. After all hazards that would be encountered during tunnel construction by TBM method had been investigated, those hazards were undergoing a Preliminary Hazard Analysis to sort out and prioritize the risks with high scores. When the risk scores were taken into consideration, it was seen that the hazards with high risk scores could be classified into 4 groups which are excavation + support induced accidents, accidents stemming from geologic conditions, auxiliary works, and project contract. According to these four classified groups of initiating events, Event Tree Analysis was conducted by taking into care 4 countermeasures apart from each other. Finally, the quantitative and qualitative consequences of Event Tree Analyses, which were undertaken for all initiating events, were investigated and interpreted together by making comparisons and referring to previous studies.

  3. Perception and acceptance of technological risk sources. Volume 2. Empirical analysis of risk perception and acceptance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Renn, O

    1981-01-01

    Volume 2 presents a comparative investigation of risk perception and acceptance. It contains the evaluations of the two experiments in social psychology and the analysis of two intensive inquiries concerning risk perception with a view to 12 different risk sources. The data of the two inquiries were acquired from a total of 200 interview partners in two cities in North-Rhine Westphalia.

  4. Assessment and uncertainty analysis of groundwater risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Fawen; Zhu, Jingzhao; Deng, Xiyuan; Zhao, Yong; Li, Shaofei

    2018-01-01

    Groundwater with relatively stable quantity and quality is commonly used by human being. However, as the over-mining of groundwater, problems such as groundwater funnel, land subsidence and salt water intrusion have emerged. In order to avoid further deterioration of hydrogeological problems in over-mining regions, it is necessary to conduct the assessment of groundwater risk. In this paper, risks of shallow and deep groundwater in the water intake area of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project in Tianjin, China, were evaluated. Firstly, two sets of four-level evaluation index system were constructed based on the different characteristics of shallow and deep groundwater. Secondly, based on the normalized factor values and the synthetic weights, the risk values of shallow and deep groundwater were calculated. Lastly, the uncertainty of groundwater risk assessment was analyzed by indicator kriging method. The results meet the decision maker's demand for risk information, and overcome previous risk assessment results expressed in the form of deterministic point estimations, which ignore the uncertainty of risk assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Method for environmental risk analysis (MIRA) revision 2007

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-04-01

    OLF's instruction manual for carrying out environmental risk analyses provides a united approach and a common framework for environmental risk assessments. This is based on the best information available. The manual implies standardizations of a series of parameters, input data and partial analyses that are included in the environmental risk analysis. Environmental risk analyses carried out according to the MIRA method will thus be comparable between fields and between companies. In this revision an update of the text in accordance with today's practice for environmental risk analyses and prevailing regulations is emphasized. Moreover, method adjustments for especially protected beach habitats have been introduced, as well as a general method for estimating environmental risk concerning fish. Emphasis has also been put on improving environmental risk analysis' possibilities to contribute to a better management of environmental risk in the companies (ml)

  6. Integrated risk analysis of global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shlyakhter, Alexander; Wilson, Richard; Valverde A, L.J. Jr.

    1995-01-01

    This paper discusses several factors that should be considered in integrated risk analyses of global climate change. We begin by describing how the problem of global climate change can be subdivided into largely independent parts that can be linked together in an analytically tractable fashion. Uncertainty plays a central role in integrated risk analyses of global climate change. Accordingly, we consider various aspects of uncertainty as they relate to the climate change problem. We also consider the impacts of these uncertainties on various risk management issues, such as sequential decision strategies, value of information, and problems of interregional and intergenerational equity. (author)

  7. Risk analysis with regard to nuclear engineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birkhofer, A.

    1980-01-01

    The author discusses the following questions: why are risk analyses elaborated. How are they carried out and which problems may arise. Completeness problem, data, human factors, common-mode-failures, accident simulation. To give an idea of the applicability of the results of risk analyses the author deals with systems comparison and system optimization, maintenance and testing strategies, incidents and the course of accidents that have to be considered in designing technical safety measures for nuclear power plants. Finally, the author tries to enter into questions that might arise due to the effects risk analyses may create in the general public. (HSCH) [de

  8. Methodology for risk analysis of nuclear installations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Senne Junior, Murillo; Jordao, Elizabete

    2002-01-01

    Both the licensing standards for general uses in nuclear facilities and the specific ones require a risk assessment during their licensing processes. The risk assessment is carried out through the estimation of both probability of the occurrence of the accident, and their magnitudes. This is a complex task because the great deal of potential hazardous events that can occur in nuclear facilities difficult the statement of the accident scenarios. There are also many available techniques to identify the potential accidents, estimate their probabilities, and evaluate their magnitudes. In this paper is presented a new methodology that systematizes the risk assessment process, and orders the accomplishment of their several steps. (author)

  9. EC Transmission Line Risk Identification and Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bigelow, Tim S [ORNL

    2012-04-01

    The purpose of this document is to assist in evaluating and planning for the cost, schedule, and technical project risks associated with the delivery and operation of the EC (Electron cyclotron) transmission line system. In general, the major risks that are anticipated to be encountered during the project delivery phase associated with the implementation of the Procurement Arrangement for the EC transmission line system are associated with: (1) Undefined or changing requirements (e.g., functional or regulatory requirements) (2) Underperformance of prototype, first unit, or production components during testing (3) Unavailability of qualified vendors for critical components Technical risks associated with the design and operation of the system are also identified.

  10. Risk Analysis for Unintentional Slide Deployment During Airline Operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayra, Eduardo S; Insua, David Ríos; Castellanos, María Eugenia; Larbi, Lydia

    2015-09-01

    We present a risk analysis undertaken to mitigate problems in relation to the unintended deployment of slides under normal operations within a commercial airline. This type of incident entails relevant costs for the airline industry. After assessing the likelihood and severity of its consequences, we conclude that such risks need to be managed. We then evaluate the effectiveness of various countermeasures, describing and justifying the chosen ones. We also discuss several issues faced when implementing and communicating the proposed measures, thus fully illustrating the risk analysis process. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  11. Study of occupational risk agents and its probable hazards to human health; Estudo dos agentes de risco ocupacional e seus provaveis agravos na saude humana

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carneiro, Janete Cristina G. Gaburo; Alves, Alice dos Santos; Sanches, Matias P., E-mail: janetegc@ipen.br, E-mail: alicesante@hotmail.com, E-mail: msanches@ipen.br [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2013-07-01

    Currently the workplaces become increasingly complex and a strategy evaluation and the control of occupational risks agents is needed. Workers may be exposed to environmental agents (chemical, physical and biological) and other unsuitable conditions by performing tasks that involve these agents directly. The main objective of this study is to approach conceptual aspects of risk conditions, physical in nature, with emphasis on ionizing radiation and its interaction with other agents in occupational and environmental situations. To meet this goal, it is performed a literature review and a summary of the main occupational agents known or suspected to cause any adverse health effects in humans. According to the available literature the reported studies on the effects of combined exposures to radiation and others agents are recognized and, as far as possible, should be taken into account in evaluating of the potential radiation risks at low levels of exposure. (author)

  12. Study of dose and relative risk of occupationally exposed individuals in interventional procedures; Estudo de dose e risco relativo de individuos ocupacionalmente expostos em procedimentos intervencionistas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Silveira Filho, Jose A.M.; Reis, Charlene O.; Taniguti, Lana T.; Pacifico, Leonardo C.; SaintYves, Thalis L.A.; Mecca, Fernando A., E-mail: ze_augustomsf@hotmail.com [Instituto Nacional do Cancer (INCA), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Setor de Fisica Medica

    2012-12-15

    This paper estimates the occupational effective dose and the relative risk of leukemia and cancers of the digestive tract mortality through dose study of the most radiosensitive anatomical regions (lens, thyroid, chest and gonads) of the professionals involved in interventional gonad procedures. It was considered a cumulative exposure time of 10,000 hours, which is the occupational exposure time of an IOE in throughout his professional life. It was also considered that they always use Personal Protective Equipment (PPE). Mathematical models derived from epidemiological data contained in the BEIR V and in the IAEA’s TECDOC 870 are used to estimate the relative risk. The results show a significant increase in mortality risk for these types of cancer for individuals occupationally exposed to three different distances from the x-ray beam, and reinforces that radiation protection measures are essential. (author)

  13. Assessment report on NRP sub-theme 'Risk Analysis'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Biesiot, W.; Hendrickx, L.; Olsthoorn, A.A.

    1995-01-01

    An overview and assessment are presented of the three research projects carried out under NRP funding that concern risk-related topics: (1) The risks of nonlinear climate changes, (2) Socio-economic and policy aspects of changes in incidence and intensity of extreme (weather) events, and (3) Characterizing the risks: a comparative analysis of the risks of global warming and of relevant policy strategies. 1 tab., 6 refs

  14. Approach for seismic risk analysis for CANDU plants in Korea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, B-S; Kim, T; Kang, S-K [Korea Power Engineering Co., Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Hong, S-Y; Roh, S-R [Korea Electric Power Corp., Taejon (Korea, Republic of). Research Centre

    1996-12-31

    A seismic risk analysis for CANDU type plants has never been performed. The study presented here suggested that the approach generally applied to LWR type plants could lead to unacceptable result, if directly applied to CANDU plants. This paper presents a modified approach for the seismic risk analysis of CANDU plants. (author). 5 refs., 2 tabs., 2 figs.

  15. Operational Risk Management A Practical Approach to Intelligent Data Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Kenett, Ron

    2010-01-01

    The book will introduce modern Operational Risk (OpR) Management and illustrates the various sources of OpR assessment and OpR mitigation. This book discusses how various data sources can be integrated and analyzed and how OpR is synergetic to other risk management activities such as Financial Risk Management and Internationalization. The topics will include state of the art technology such as semantic analysis, ontology engineering, data mining and statistical analysis.

  16. Estudos de atmosfera

    OpenAIRE

    Carlos Eduardo Riccioppo

    2016-01-01

    Joker e Estudos de balística possuíam formas distintas dos cadernos ou livros quando foram exibidos pela primeira vez, na mostra Dual Overdrive. De algum modo, o flagrante das imagens dos cartazes da campanha política parisiense e daquelas cusparadas sobre o asfalto era preservado no modo como eram mostrados os trabalhos, que repunham não apenas a orientação espacial dos objetos fotografados, mas, igualmente, sua escala: Joker apresentava-se na parede, em dimensões relativamente próximas às d...

  17. um estudo de caso

    OpenAIRE

    Costa, Cátia Filipa Pereira da

    2011-01-01

    Dissertação apresentada à Universidade Fernando Pessoa como parte dos requisitos para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Psicologia Jurídica As situações de abuso sexual de crianças nas quais o perpetrador pertence ao sexo feminino obtiveram ao longo dos últimos anos um acrescido reconhecimento por parte da comunidade científica, evidenciado pelo significativo incremento das investigações no âmbito desta temática consistindo na sua maioria estudos de caso. Um conjunto de particularidades encont...

  18. Living PRAs [probabilistic risk analysis] made easier with IRRAS [Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russell, K.D.; Sattison, M.B.; Rasmuson, D.M.

    1989-01-01

    The Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) is an integrated PRA software tool that gives the user the ability to create and analyze fault trees and accident sequences using an IBM-compatible microcomputer. This program provides functions that range from graphical fault tree and event tree construction to cut set generation and quantification. IRRAS contains all the capabilities and functions required to create, modify, reduce, and analyze event tree and fault tree models used in the analysis of complex systems and processes. IRRAS uses advanced graphic and analytical techniques to achieve the greatest possible realization of the potential of the microcomputer. When the needs of the user exceed this potential, IRRAS can call upon the power of the mainframe computer. The role of the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory if the IRRAS program is that of software developer and interface to the user community. Version 1.0 of the IRRAS program was released in February 1987 to prove the concept of performing this kind of analysis on microcomputers. This version contained many of the basic features needed for fault tree analysis and was received very well by the PRA community. Since the release of Version 1.0, many user comments and enhancements have been incorporated into the program providing a much more powerful and user-friendly system. This version is designated ''IRRAS 2.0''. Version 3.0 will contain all of the features required for efficient event tree and fault tree construction and analysis. 5 refs., 26 figs

  19. Big Data Risk Analysis for Rail Safety?

    OpenAIRE

    Van Gulijk, Coen; Hughes, Peter; Figueres-Esteban, Miguel; Dacre, Marcus; Harrison, Chris; HUD; RSSB

    2015-01-01

    Computer scientists believe that the enormous amounts of data in the internet will unchain a management revolution of uncanny proportions. Yet, to date, the potential benefit of this revolution is scantily investigated for safety and risk management. This paper gives a brief overview of a research programme that investigates how the new internet-driven data-revolution could benefit safety and risk management for railway safety in the UK. The paper gives a brief overview the current activities...

  20. Integrating Household Risk Mitigation Behavior in Flood Risk Analysis: An Agent-Based Model Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haer, Toon; Botzen, W J Wouter; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen C J H

    2017-10-01

    Recent studies showed that climate change and socioeconomic trends are expected to increase flood risks in many regions. However, in these studies, human behavior is commonly assumed to be constant, which neglects interaction and feedback loops between human and environmental systems. This neglect of human adaptation leads to a misrepresentation of flood risk. This article presents an agent-based model that incorporates human decision making in flood risk analysis. In particular, household investments in loss-reducing measures are examined under three economic decision models: (1) expected utility theory, which is the traditional economic model of rational agents; (2) prospect theory, which takes account of bounded rationality; and (3) a prospect theory model, which accounts for changing risk perceptions and social interactions through a process of Bayesian updating. We show that neglecting human behavior in flood risk assessment studies can result in a considerable misestimation of future flood risk, which is in our case study an overestimation of a factor two. Furthermore, we show how behavior models can support flood risk analysis under different behavioral assumptions, illustrating the need to include the dynamic adaptive human behavior of, for instance, households, insurers, and governments. The method presented here provides a solid basis for exploring human behavior and the resulting flood risk with respect to low-probability/high-impact risks. © 2016 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

  1. Project Portfolio Risk Identification and Analysis, Considering Project Risk Interactions and Using Bayesian Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Foroogh Ghasemi

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available An organization’s strategic objectives are accomplished through portfolios. However, the materialization of portfolio risks may affect a portfolio’s sustainable success and the achievement of those objectives. Moreover, project interdependencies and cause–effect relationships between risks create complexity for portfolio risk analysis. This paper presents a model using Bayesian network (BN methodology for modeling and analyzing portfolio risks. To develop this model, first, portfolio-level risks and risks caused by project interdependencies are identified. Then, based on their cause–effect relationships all portfolio risks are organized in a BN. Conditional probability distributions for this network are specified and the Bayesian networks method is used to estimate the probability of portfolio risk. This model was applied to a portfolio of a construction company located in Iran and proved effective in analyzing portfolio risk probability. Furthermore, the model provided valuable information for selecting a portfolio’s projects and making strategic decisions.

  2. Single-shell tank interim stabilization risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Basche, A.D.

    1998-01-01

    The purpose of the Single-Shell Tank (SST) Interim Stabilization Risk Analysis is to provide a cost and schedule risk analysis of HNF-2358, Rev. 1, Single-Shell Tank Interim Stabilization Project Plan (Project Plan) (Ross et al. 1998). The analysis compares the required cost profile by fiscal year (Section 4.2) and revised schedule completion date (Section 4.5) to the Project Plan. The analysis also evaluates the executability of the Project Plan and recommends a path forward for risk mitigation

  3. Risk analysis of Finnish peacekeeping in Kosovo.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehtomäki, Kyösti; Pääkkönen, Rauno J; Rantanen, Jorma

    2005-04-01

    The research team interviewed over 90 Finnish battalion members in Kosovo, visited 22 units or posts, registered its observations, and made any necessary measurements. Key persons were asked to list the most important risks for occupational safety and health in their area of responsibility. Altogether, 106 accidents and 40 cases of disease resulted in compensation claims in 2000. The risks to the peacekeeping force were about twice those of the permanent staff of military trainees in Finland. Altogether, 21 accidents or cases of disease resulted in sick leave for at least 3 months after service. One permanent injury resulted from an explosion. Biological, chemical, and physical factors caused 8 to 9 occupational illnesses each. Traffic accidents, operational factors, and munitions and mines were evaluated to be the three most important risk factors, followed by occupational hygiene, living conditions (mold, fungi, dust), and general hygiene. Possible fatal risks, such as traffic accidents and munitions and explosives, received a high ranking in both the subjective and the objective evaluations. One permanent injury resulted from an explosion, and two traffic accidents involved a fatality, although not of a peacekeeper. The reduction of sports and military training accidents, risk-control programs, and, for some tasks, better personal protection is considered a development challenge for the near future.

  4. Risk Analysis for the Different Consolidation Proposals

    CERN Document Server

    Strait, J

    2009-01-01

    In parallel with the repairs in sector 34, improvements are planned to a number of systems, to allow safe detection of faults similar to the one which caused the incident of 19 September, and to limit the damage should a similar incident nonetheless occur. These include improved bus and quench detection systems, improved pressure relief for the insulating and beam vacuum systems, and improved anchoring of the SSS to the tunnel floor. Not all of the planned mitigations, however, may be fully implemented before the restart of the LHC in 2009. I will review the potential benefits of partial or complete implementation of each of the planned improvements, individually or together with others, and conversely the potential risks (consequences) of delayed implementation. I will also review the risks that remain even after the planned consolidation is complete. Considering all proposals and the different risks, I will comment on what would be the best strategy for consolidation, and on the strategy for operations unde...

  5. The Total Risk Analysis of Large Dams under Flood Hazards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Chen

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Dams and reservoirs are useful systems in water conservancy projects; however, they also pose a high-risk potential for large downstream areas. Flood, as the driving force of dam overtopping, is the main cause of dam failure. Dam floods and their risks are of interest to researchers and managers. In hydraulic engineering, there is a growing tendency to evaluate dam flood risk based on statistical and probabilistic methods that are unsuitable for the situations with rare historical data or low flood probability, so a more reasonable dam flood risk analysis method with fewer application restrictions is needed. Therefore, different from previous studies, this study develops a flood risk analysis method for large dams based on the concept of total risk factor (TRF used initially in dam seismic risk analysis. The proposed method is not affected by the adequacy of historical data or the low probability of flood and is capable of analyzing the dam structure influence, the flood vulnerability of the dam site, and downstream risk as well as estimating the TRF of each dam and assigning corresponding risk classes to each dam. Application to large dams in the Dadu River Basin, Southwestern China, demonstrates that the proposed method provides quick risk estimation and comparison, which can help local management officials perform more detailed dam safety evaluations for useful risk management information.

  6. Risk Analysis for Environmental Health Triage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bogen, K T

    2005-01-01

    The Homeland Security Act mandates development of a national, risk-based system to support planning for, response to and recovery from emergency situations involving large-scale toxic exposures. To prepare for and manage consequences effectively, planners and responders need not only to identify zones of potentially elevated individual risk, but also to predict expected casualties. Emergency response support systems now define ''consequences'' by mapping areas in which toxic chemical concentrations do or may exceed Acute Exposure Guideline Levels (AEGLs) or similar guidelines. However, because AEGLs do not estimate expected risks, current unqualified claims that such maps support consequence management are misleading. Intentionally protective, AEGLs incorporate various safety/uncertainty factors depending on scope and quality of chemical-specific toxicity data. Some of these factors are irrelevant, and others need to be modified, whenever resource constraints or exposure-scenario complexities require responders to make critical trade-off (triage) decisions in order to minimize expected casualties. AEGL-exceedance zones cannot consistently be aggregated, compared, or used to calculate expected casualties, and so may seriously misguide emergency response triage decisions. Methods and tools well established and readily available to support environmental health protection are not yet developed for chemically related environmental health triage. Effective triage decisions involving chemical risks require a new assessment approach that focuses on best estimates of likely casualties, rather than on upper plausible bounds of individual risk. If risk-based consequence management is to become a reality, federal agencies tasked with supporting emergency response must actively coordinate to foster new methods that can support effective environmental health triage

  7. Risk analysis: divergent models and convergent interpretations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carnes, B. A.; Gavrilova, N.

    2001-01-01

    Material presented at a NASA-sponsored workshop on risk models for exposure conditions relevant to prolonged space flight are described in this paper. Analyses used mortality data from experiments conducted at Argonne National Laboratory on the long-term effects of external whole-body irradiation on B6CF1 mice by 60Co gamma rays and fission neutrons delivered as a single exposure or protracted over either 24 or 60 once-weekly exposures. The maximum dose considered was restricted to 1 Gy for neutrons and 10 Gy for gamma rays. Proportional hazard models were used to investigate the shape of the dose response at these lower doses for deaths caused by solid-tissue tumors and tumors of either connective or epithelial tissue origin. For protracted exposures, a significant mortality effect was detected at a neutron dose of 14 cGy and a gamma-ray dose of 3 Gy. For single exposures, radiation-induced mortality for neutrons also occurred within the range of 10-20 cGy, but dropped to 86 cGy for gamma rays. Plots of risk relative to control estimated for each observed dose gave a visual impression of nonlinearity for both neutrons and gamma rays. At least for solid-tissue tumors, male and female mortality was nearly identical for gamma-ray exposures, but mortality risks for females were higher than for males for neutron exposures. As expected, protracting the gamma-ray dose reduced mortality risks. Although curvature consistent with that observed visually could be detected by a model parameterized to detect curvature, a relative risk term containing only a simple term for total dose was usually sufficient to describe the dose response. Although detectable mortality for the three pathology end points considered typically occurred at the same level of dose, the highest risks were almost always associated with deaths caused by tumors of epithelial tissue origin.

  8. Stress Analysis in Managing the Region’s Budget Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalya Pavlovna Pazdnikova

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The article addresses the implementation of budget risk management methods into the practices of governmental authorities. Drawing on the example of a particular region the article aims to demonstrate the possible methods of budget risk management. The authors refine the existing approaches to the notion of risk in its relation to budget system by introducing the notion of “budget risk.” Here the focus is the risk of default of budget spending in full which causes underfunding of territories and decrease in quality of life in the region. The authors have particularized the classification of budget risks and grouped together the criteria and factors which significantly influence the assessment and choice of method to manage budget risks. They hypothesize that budget risk is a financial risk. Therefore, the methods of financial risks management can be applied to budget risks management. The authors suggest a methodological approach to risk assessment based on correlation and regression analysis of program financing. The application of Kendall rank correlation coefficient allowed to assess the efficiency of budget spending on the implementation of state programs in Perm Krai. Two clusters — “Nature management and infrastructure” and “Public security” — turned out to be in the zone of high budget risk. The method of stress analysis, which consists in calculating Value at Risk (VaR, was applied to budget risks that in terms of probability are classified as critical. In order to assess risk as probability rate, the amount of Perm Krai deficit budget was calculated as induced variable from budget revenues and spending. The results demonstrate that contemporary management of public resources in the regions calls for the implementation of new management tools of higher quality and budget risk management is one of them.

  9. Modeling issues in nuclear plant fire risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siu, N.

    1989-01-01

    This paper discusses various issues associated with current models for analyzing the risk due to fires in nuclear power plants. Particular emphasis is placed on the fire growth and suppression models, these being unique to the fire portion of the overall risk analysis. Potentially significant modeling improvements are identified; also discussed are a variety of modeling issues where improvements will help the credibility of the analysis, without necessarily changing the computed risk significantly. The mechanistic modeling of fire initiation is identified as a particularly promising improvement for reducing the uncertainties in the predicted risk. 17 refs., 5 figs. 2 tabs

  10. LDC commodity risk analysis and recommendations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-01-01

    Under the current operation of the new competitive electricity market in Ontario, local distribution companies (LDCs) are required to pay the monthly invoice of the Independent Market Operator (IMO) before they collect from end-users for the consumption period covered by the invoice, with no clear guarantee that the recovery will occur. This situation creates a major cash flow problem and financial risk for LDCs and threatens the integrity and stability of the electricity market. This paper described 3 features of Ontario's competitive electricity market that create financial and commodity risk. The first problem is that there is no limit on how high prices can rise. Increases in wholesale commodity prices can result in a situation where the amount of the IMO's invoice is greater than the LDC's ability to pay at the time of receipt. Secondly, the LDC bears a 100 per cent payment obligation to the IMO administrator of the wholesale market. The third problem is that LDCs bear payment default risk from all consumers in the Ontario market, including electricity retailers. This paper presents some specific policy solutions that can protect the market from this threat. It was suggested that in order to protect the integrity of Ontario's electricity market during high prices, a policy must be drafted to address the commodity price financing risk (CPFR) issue. The policy must also define what happens if prices increase past the LDCs financing obligation limit. tabs., figs

  11. Risk Analysis and Security Countermeasure Selection

    CERN Document Server

    Norman, Thomas L

    2009-01-01

    Explains how to evaluate the appropriateness of security countermeasures, from a cost-effectiveness perspective. This title guides readers from basic principles to complex processes in a step-by-step fashion, evaluating DHS-approved risk assessment methods, including CARVER, API/NPRA, RAMCAP, and various Sandia methodologies

  12. Ritmo circadiano e doença vascular encefálica: um estudo de correlação com fatores de risco Circadian rhythm and encephalic vascular disease: a correlative study with risk factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helio Araújo Oliveira

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available Os mecanismos biológicos humanos exibem variabilidade clínica previsível no tempo, o que tem permitido reavaliação das práticas médicas atuais, do estudo mais aprofundado do ritmo circadiano (RC e dos mecanismos que geram as oscilações sustentadas em todos os níveis biológicos. Fizemos um estudo procurando relacionar o RC e o momento do aparecimento do quadro clínico neurológico decorrente da lesão vascular do encéfalo com os fatores de risco modificáveis identificados no momento da internação. Foram estudados 53 pacientes, sendo 50,94% (n =27 do sexo feminino e 49,50%(n =26 do masculino, com média de idade de 66,4 anos. Quatro intervalos de 6 horas (0-6; 6-12; 12-18; 18-24 foram usados para análise da freqüência do ictus e da incidência em cada intervalo. Os resultados mostraram 6 (11,32% pacientes no intervalo 0-6 hs; 21 (39,62% no intervalo 6-12 hs; 10 (18,86% no intervalo 12-18 hs; 16 (30,18% no intervalo 18-24 hs. Estudo de correlação com os fatores de risco, baseado nos dados clínicos no momento da internação, mostrou que a hipertensão arterial [(81,25%] e o tabagismo[ (56,25%] predominaram no intervalo 18-24 hs, enquanto o sedentarismo[11; (52,38%] o estresse[11 (52,38%] o diabetes [(47,61%] a hiperlipidemia [8 (38,09%] e o alcoolismo[8 (38,09%] predominaram no intervalo 6-12 hs; as cardiopatias [(50,00%] predominaram no intervalo de 12-18 hs.The human biological mechanisms show a predictable clinical variability in time, which has allowed a deeper reevaluation of present-day medical practices, regarding the circadian rhythm (CR and the mechanisms that produce the supported variations in all biological levels. We have made a study aiming to relate the CR and onset of the neurological clinic situation due to the encephalic vascular lesion, correlating with modifying risk factors. Fifty three patients were studied, 50,94% female (n=27 and 49,50% male (n=26, at average age 66.4 years old. Four intervals of six

  13. How to Perform an Ethical Risk Analysis (eRA).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansson, Sven Ove

    2018-02-26

    Ethical analysis is often needed in the preparation of policy decisions on risk. A three-step method is proposed for performing an ethical risk analysis (eRA). In the first step, the people concerned are identified and categorized in terms of the distinct but compatible roles of being risk-exposed, a beneficiary, or a decisionmaker. In the second step, a more detailed classification of roles and role combinations is performed, and ethically problematic role combinations are identified. In the third step, further ethical deliberation takes place, with an emphasis on individual risk-benefit weighing, distributional analysis, rights analysis, and power analysis. Ethical issues pertaining to subsidiary risk roles, such as those of experts and journalists, are also treated in this phase. An eRA should supplement, not replace, a traditional risk analysis that puts emphasis on the probabilities and severities of undesirable events but does not cover ethical issues such as agency, interpersonal relationships, and justice. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

  14. Flood Risk Assessment Based On Security Deficit Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beck, J.; Metzger, R.; Hingray, B.; Musy, A.

    Risk is a human perception: a given risk may be considered as acceptable or unac- ceptable depending on the group that has to face that risk. Flood risk analysis of- ten estimates economic losses from damages, but neglects the question of accept- able/unacceptable risk. With input from land use managers, politicians and other stakeholders, risk assessment based on security deficit analysis determines objects with unacceptable risk and their degree of security deficit. Such a risk assessment methodology, initially developed by the Swiss federal authorities, is illustrated by its application on a reach of the Alzette River (Luxembourg) in the framework of the IRMA-SPONGE FRHYMAP project. Flood risk assessment always involves a flood hazard analysis, an exposed object vulnerability analysis, and an analysis combing the results of these two previous analyses. The flood hazard analysis was done with the quasi-2D hydraulic model FldPln to produce flood intensity maps. Flood intensity was determined by the water height and velocity. Object data for the vulnerability analysis, provided by the Luxembourg government, were classified according to their potential damage. Potential damage is expressed in terms of direct, human life and secondary losses. A thematic map was produced to show the object classification. Protection goals were then attributed to the object classes. Protection goals are assigned in terms of an acceptable flood intensity for a certain flood frequency. This is where input from land use managers and politicians comes into play. The perception of risk in the re- gion or country influences the protection goal assignment. Protection goals as used in Switzerland were used in this project. Thematic maps showing the protection goals of each object in the case study area for a given flood frequency were produced. Com- parison between an object's protection goal and the intensity of the flood that touched the object determine the acceptability of the risk and the

  15. On the validation of risk analysis-A commentary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosqvist, Tony

    2010-01-01

    Aven and Heide (2009) [1] provided interesting views on the reliability and validation of risk analysis. The four validation criteria presented are contrasted with modelling features related to the relative frequency-based and Bayesian approaches to risk analysis. In this commentary I would like to bring forth some issues on validation that partly confirm and partly suggest changes in the interpretation of the introduced validation criteria-especially, in the context of low probability-high consequence systems. The mental model of an expert in assessing probabilities is argued to be a key notion in understanding the validation of a risk analysis.

  16. Fatores de risco de aterosclerose na infância. Um estudo epidemiológico Risk factors of atherosclerosis in children. An epidemiologic study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zoffi Roberto S. Gerber

    1997-10-01

    Full Text Available OBJETIVO: Obter um perfil dos fatores de risco coronário em uma amostra populacional pediátrica da cidade de Bento Gonçalves, RS, no período de maio/90 a junho/91. MÉTODOS: Foram estudados 1501 escolares de 6 a 16 anos incompletos, visando a detecção dos níveis séricos de colesterol total, lipoproteínas, triglicerídeos, bem como a avaliação da pressão arterial e da história familiar de doença cardiovascular isquêmica e obesidade. RESULTADOS: Foram detectadas 420 (27,98% crianças com hipercolesterolemia, sendo que 75 (5% apresentavam hipertensão arterial sistólica e 48 (3,20% hipertensão arterial diastólica. A história familiar foi importante quando positiva, porém, sua ausência não excluia a presença de fatores de risco para a aterosclerose. A hipertrigliceridemia foi encontrada em 136 (9,06% escolares e a LDL-colesterol elevada em 155 (10,33%, mostrando forte associação com hipercolesterolemia. Apresentaram índice de massa corporal acima de percentil 95, não mostrando uma maior prevalência de hipercolesterolemia, 111 crianças. CONCLUSÃO: Os fatores de risco para a aterosclerose estão presentes na infância e deveriam ser pesquisados independentemente do nível socioeconômico, da história familiar, da idade e do sexo, devendo o pediatra ser um dos responsáveis por esta investigação.PURPOSE: To obtain a profile of risk factors for coronary atherosclerosis in a pediatric population from Bento Gonçalves, Rio Grande do Sul, from May 1990 to June 1991. METHODS: One thousand five hundred and one children with ages from 6 to 15 years were studied to assess serum cholesterol levels and their association with other risk factors, such as arterial hypertension, obesity and family history of cardiovascular disease. RESULTS: Four hundred and twenty (27.98% children showed cholesterol levels over 180mg%; 75 (5% had systolic hypertension and 48 (3.20% diastolic hypertension. The family history was important to search

  17. Risk analysis methodologies for the transportation of radioactive materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Geffen, C.A.

    1983-05-01

    Different methodologies have evolved for consideration of each of the many steps required in performing a transportation risk analysis. Although there are techniques that attempt to consider the entire scope of the analysis in depth, most applications of risk assessment to the transportation of nuclear fuel cycle materials develop specific methodologies for only one or two parts of the analysis. The remaining steps are simplified for the analyst by narrowing the scope of the effort (such as evaluating risks for only one material, or a particular set of accident scenarios, or movement over a specific route); performing a qualitative rather than a quantitative analysis (probabilities may be simply ranked as high, medium or low, for instance); or assuming some generic, conservative conditions for potential release fractions and consequences. This paper presents a discussion of the history and present state-of-the-art of transportation risk analysis methodologies. Many reports in this area were reviewed as background for this presentation. The literature review, while not exhaustive, did result in a complete representation of the major methods used today in transportation risk analysis. These methodologies primarily include the use of severity categories based on historical accident data, the analysis of specifically assumed accident sequences for the transportation activity of interest, and the use of fault or event tree analysis. Although the focus of this work has generally been on potential impacts to public groups, some effort has been expended in the estimation of risks to occupational groups in transportation activities

  18. Risk analysis of complex hydrogen infrastructures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Markert, Frank; Marangon, Alessia; Carcassi, Marco

    2015-01-01

    Developing a future sustainable refuelling station network is the next important step to establish hydrogen as a fuel for vehicles and related services. Such stations will most likely be integrated in existing refuelling stations and result in multi-fuel storages with a variety of fuels being...... to improve the quality of biomass based fuels. Therefore, hydrogen supply and distribution chains will likely not only serve to fulfil the demands of refuelling, but may also be important for the wider electrical power and fuel industries. Based on an integrated hydrogen supply and distribution network...... assessment methodologies, and how functional models could support coherent risk and sustainability (Risk Assessment, Life Cycle Assessment /Life Cycle Costing) assessments, in order to find optimal solutions for the development of the infrastructure on a regional or national level....

  19. Analysis of power system collapse risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eleschova, Z.; Belan, A.; Cintula, B.; Smitkova, M.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper are analysed the initialization events with considering different scenarios and their impact on the power system transient stability. As an initialization event is considered a short circuit at various places of power line. In each scenario are considered protection failures (backup protection), circuit-breaker failures (breaker failure relay activation). The individual states are analysed and the power system collapse risk assessed based on the simulation experiments results (Authors)

  20. Bayesian-network-based safety risk analysis in construction projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Limao; Wu, Xianguo; Skibniewski, Miroslaw J.; Zhong, Jingbing; Lu, Yujie

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a systemic decision support approach for safety risk analysis under uncertainty in tunnel construction. Fuzzy Bayesian Networks (FBN) is used to investigate causal relationships between tunnel-induced damage and its influential variables based upon the risk/hazard mechanism analysis. Aiming to overcome limitations on the current probability estimation, an expert confidence indicator is proposed to ensure the reliability of the surveyed data for fuzzy probability assessment of basic risk factors. A detailed fuzzy-based inference procedure is developed, which has a capacity of implementing deductive reasoning, sensitivity analysis and abductive reasoning. The “3σ criterion” is adopted to calculate the characteristic values of a triangular fuzzy number in the probability fuzzification process, and the α-weighted valuation method is adopted for defuzzification. The construction safety analysis progress is extended to the entire life cycle of risk-prone events, including the pre-accident, during-construction continuous and post-accident control. A typical hazard concerning the tunnel leakage in the construction of Wuhan Yangtze Metro Tunnel in China is presented as a case study, in order to verify the applicability of the proposed approach. The results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed approach and its application potential. A comparison of advantages and disadvantages between FBN and fuzzy fault tree analysis (FFTA) as risk analysis tools is also conducted. The proposed approach can be used to provide guidelines for safety analysis and management in construction projects, and thus increase the likelihood of a successful project in a complex environment. - Highlights: • A systemic Bayesian network based approach for safety risk analysis is developed. • An expert confidence indicator for probability fuzzification is proposed. • Safety risk analysis progress is extended to entire life cycle of risk-prone events. • A typical

  1. Environmental risk assessment in GMO analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pirondini, Andrea; Marmiroli, Nelson

    2010-01-01

    Genetically modified or engineered organisms (GMOs, GEOs) are utilised in agriculture, expressing traits of interest, such as insect or herbicide resistance. Soybean, maize, cotton and oilseed rape are the GM crops with the largest acreage in the world. The distribution of GM acreage in the different countries is related with the different positions concerning labelling of GMO products: based on the principle of substantial equivalence, or rather based on the precautionary principle. The paper provides an overview on how the risks associated with release of GMO in the environments can be analysed and predicted, in view of a possible coexistence of GM and non-GM organisms in agriculture.Risk assessment procedures, both qualitative and quantitative, are compared in the context of application to GMOs considering also legislation requirements (Directive 2001/18/EC). Criteria and measurable properties to assess harm for human health and environmental safety are listed, and the possible consequences are evaluated in terms of significance.Finally, a mapping of the possible risks deriving from GMO release is reported, focusing on gene transfer to related species, horizontal gene transfer, direct and indirect effects on non target organisms, development of resistance in target organisms, and effects on biodiversity.

  2. Analysis of Alternatives for Risk Assessment Methodologies and Tools

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nachtigal, Noel M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). System Analytics; Fruetel, Julia A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Gleason, Nathaniel J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Helms, Jovana [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Imbro, Dennis Raymond [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Sumner, Matthew C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis

    2013-10-01

    The purpose of this document is to provide a basic overview and understanding of risk assessment methodologies and tools from the literature and to assess the suitability of these methodologies and tools for cyber risk assessment. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) performed this review in support of risk modeling activities performed for the Stakeholder Engagement and Cyber Infrastructure Resilience (SECIR) division of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Office of Cybersecurity and Communications (CS&C). The set of methodologies and tools covered in this document is not intended to be exhaustive; instead, it focuses on those that are commonly used in the risk assessment community. The classification of methodologies and tools was performed by a group of analysts with experience in risk analysis and cybersecurity, and the resulting analysis of alternatives has been tailored to address the needs of a cyber risk assessment.

  3. Estado nutricional, consumo alimentar e risco cardiovascular: um estudo em universitários Nutritional status, food consumption and cardiovascular risk: a study on university students

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marina de Moraes Vasconcelos Petribú

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available OBJETIVO: Descrever a proporção de fatores de risco para doenças cardiovasculares, dando ênfase aos fatores nutricionais, em alunos da área de saúde de uma universidade pública do Recife. MÉTODOS: Foram avaliados 250 estudantes por um questionário que abordou aspectos biossociais, dados sobre estilo de vida, história familiar para doenças cardiovasculares, variáveis antropométricas e consumo alimentar, avaliado pelo Recordatório de 24horas. RESULTADOS: Foi encontrada a seguinte freqüência para os fatores de risco analisados: tabagismo (2,8%, sedentarismo (41,7%, excesso de peso (35,5% e 5,3% nos sexos masculino e feminino, respectivamente pOBJECTIVE: This study aimed to describe the proportion of risk factors for cardiovascular diseases, emphasizing nutritional factors, among health students from a public university in Recife, Brazil. METHODS: Two hundred and fifty students were assessed through a questionnaire that addressed biosocial aspects, lifestyle data, family history for cardiovascular diseases, anthropometric variables and food consumption determined by the 24-hour recall. RESULTS: The following rates were found for the assessed risk factors: smoking (2.8%, inactivity (41.7%, overweight (35.5% among men and 5.3% among women, p<0,01, family history of hypertension (35.5%, diabetes (11.3%, obesity (20.2% and death of close relatives before age 50 due to cardiovascular diseases (14.8%. Regarding food consumption, a high percentage of individuals had inappropriate energy intake and a low percentage had inappropriate protein and carbohydrate intakes. Regarding the fat profile of the diet, more than 40.0% of the students consumed more cholesterol than the recommended levels and 17.9% of the men and 44.8% of the women consumed high amounts of saturated fat (p<0.01. The consumption of linoleic acid and monounsaturated and polyunsaturated fatty acids was inadequate in more than 95% of the individuals under study. CONCLUSION: The

  4. Work program analysis - defining the capability/risk plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hrinivich, W.A.

    2004-01-01

    Bruce Power has developed and implemented an analysis methodology (Work Program Analysis) to assess and address corporate business risk associated with work group capability. Work Program Analysis is proving to be an excellent tool for identifying and supporting key business decisions facing the line and senior management at Bruce Power. The following describes the methodology, its application and the results achieved. (author)

  5. Urban flooding and health risk analysis by use of quantitative microbial risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Signe Tanja

    D thesis is to identify the limitations and possibilities for optimising microbial risk assessments of urban flooding through more evidence-based solutions, including quantitative microbial data and hydrodynamic water quality models. The focus falls especially on the problem of data needs and the causes......, but also when wading through a flooded area. The results in this thesis have brought microbial risk assessments one step closer to more uniform and repeatable risk analysis by using actual and relevant measured data and hydrodynamic water quality models to estimate the risk from flooding caused...... are expected to increase in the future. To ensure public health during extreme rainfall, solutions are needed, but limited knowledge on microbial water quality, and related health risks, makes it difficult to implement microbial risk analysis as a part of the basis for decision making. The main aim of this Ph...

  6. Environmental risk analysis for nanomaterials: Review and evaluation of frameworks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grieger, Khara Deanne; Linkov, Igor; Hansen, Steffen Foss

    2012-01-01

    to occupational settings with minor environmental considerations, and most have not been thoroughly tested on a wide range of NM. Care should also be taken when selecting the most appropriate risk analysis strategy for a given risk context. Given this, we recommend a multi-faceted approach to assess...... the environmental risks of NM as well as increased applications and testing of the proposed frameworks for different NM....

  7. HVAC fault tree analysis for WIPP integrated risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirby, P.; Iacovino, J.

    1990-01-01

    In order to evaluate the public health risk from operation of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) due to potential radioactive releases, a probabilistic risk assessment of waste handling operations was conducted. One major aspect of this risk assessment involved fault tree analysis of the plant heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, which comprise the final barrier between waste handling operations and the environment. 1 refs., 1 tab

  8. WE-B-BRC-02: Risk Analysis and Incident Learning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fraass, B. [Cedars Sinai Medical Center (United States)

    2016-06-15

    Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. We therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation oncology

  9. WE-B-BRC-02: Risk Analysis and Incident Learning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fraass, B.

    2016-01-01

    Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. We therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation oncology

  10. Estudo histomorfométrico de anastomoses primárias de cólon em coelhos, com e sem preparo intestinal Histomorfometric analysis of colonic anastomosis in rabbits with and without intestinal preparation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juvenal da Rocha Torres Neto

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available O preparo intestinal é muito utilizado em cirurgias do cólon. A LIATO (lavagem intestinal anterógrada trans-operatória promove limpeza do cólon, conferindo incremento de tempo ao ato cirúrgico e maior risco de infecção pela maior manipulação do conteúdo intestinal .Este estudo compara confecção de anastomoses colônicas com e sem preparo intestinal, pela análise histomorfométrica. Foram submetidos à cirurgia 30 coelhos divididos em 2 grupos: grupo 1, controle e grupo 2, que submeteu-se a LIATO, e comparados os seus resultados. A presença de infiltrado inflamatório agudo teve média discretamente maior nas anastomoses do grupo 2. Infiltrado inflamatório crônico obteve média de 1,9 nas anastomoses do grupo 2 e de 2,1 nas sem preparo. Necrose esteve presente em 15,7% dos casos onde se realizou LIATO contra 13,5% no grupo sem preparo. Calcificações foram encontradas em 43% das anastomoses com preparo e em 30% das sem preparo. Observou-se maior quantidade de colágeno nas anastomoses feitas com a lavagem intestinal. O padrão entrelaçado das fibras colágenas foi observado em 86% das anastomoses do grupo 2 e 70% no 1. Estudo estatístico foi realizado com programa Prism® 4 para pColon laudering is used in many colon surgeries. The LIATO, that promotes cleanness of colon, demonstrates an increase of the surgical time and increase risk of infection. This study compares colonic anastomosis with and without preparation, through histomorfometric analysis. 30 rabbits were submitted to the surgery treatment and had been evaluated and divided in groups: group 1 (control and group 2 (LIATO. Carried through statistical study with the program Prism® 4 for p< 5%. The analisis found acute inflammatory infiltrated with discrete bigger average in the anastomoses of group 2. Chronic inflammatory infiltrated with average of 1,9 in the anastomoses of group 2 and of 2,1 in the ones without preparation. Necrosis in 15,7% in the LIATO against 13

  11. Applying Multi-Criteria Analysis Methods for Fire Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pushkina Julia

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to prove the application of multi-criteria analysis methods for optimisation of fire risk identification and assessment process. The object of this research is fire risk and risk assessment. The subject of the research is studying the application of analytic hierarchy process for modelling and influence assessment of various fire risk factors. Results of research conducted by the authors can be used by insurance companies to perform the detailed assessment of fire risks on the object and to calculate a risk extra charge to an insurance premium; by the state supervisory institutions to determine the compliance of a condition of object with requirements of regulations; by real state owners and investors to carry out actions for decrease in degree of fire risks and minimisation of possible losses.

  12. DYNAMIC HYBRIDS UNDER SOLVENCY II: RISK ANALYSIS AND MODIFICATION POSSIBILITIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Maier

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we investigate the new and standardized European system of supervisory called Solvency II. In essence, asymmetric distribution of information between policyholder and insurer triggered this new regulation which aims at better protecting policyholders. Its three-pillar model is about to challenge both, insurers as well as policyholders. The first pillar includes quantitative aspects, the second pillar contains qualitative aspects and the third pillar comprises market transparency and reporting obligations. Underwriting risks, the default risk of a bank and market risks can be identified for the dynamic hybrid. Solvency II covers all these risks in the first pillar and insurers shall deposit sufficient risk-bearing capital. In our analysis, we first identify the dynamic hybrid specific risks under the Solvency II regime und then develop product modifications to reduce this risk.

  13. Risk and safety analysis of nuclear systems

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lee, John C; McCormick, Norman J

    2011-01-01

    ...), and failure modes of systems. All of this material is general enough that it could be used in non-nuclear applications, although there is an emphasis placed on the analysis of nuclear systems...

  14. The development of a 3D risk analysis method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    I, Yet-Pole; Cheng, Te-Lung

    2008-05-01

    Much attention has been paid to the quantitative risk analysis (QRA) research in recent years due to more and more severe disasters that have happened in the process industries. Owing to its calculation complexity, very few software, such as SAFETI, can really make the risk presentation meet the practice requirements. However, the traditional risk presentation method, like the individual risk contour in SAFETI, is mainly based on the consequence analysis results of dispersion modeling, which usually assumes that the vapor cloud disperses over a constant ground roughness on a flat terrain with no obstructions and concentration fluctuations, which is quite different from the real situations of a chemical process plant. All these models usually over-predict the hazardous regions in order to maintain their conservativeness, which also increases the uncertainty of the simulation results. On the other hand, a more rigorous model such as the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model can resolve the previous limitations; however, it cannot resolve the complexity of risk calculations. In this research, a conceptual three-dimensional (3D) risk calculation method was proposed via the combination of results of a series of CFD simulations with some post-processing procedures to obtain the 3D individual risk iso-surfaces. It is believed that such technique will not only be limited to risk analysis at ground level, but also be extended into aerial, submarine, or space risk analyses in the near future.

  15. Assessment of major nuclear technologies with decision and risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Winterfeldt, D. von

    1995-01-01

    Selecting technologies for major nuclear programs involves several complexities, including multiple stakeholders, multiple conflicting objectives, uncertainties, and risk. In addition, the programmatic risks related to the schedule, cost, and performance of these technologies often become major issues in the selection process. This paper describes a decision analysis approach for addressing these complexities in a logical manner

  16. The JPL Cost Risk Analysis Approach that Incorporates Engineering Realism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harmon, Corey C.; Warfield, Keith R.; Rosenberg, Leigh S.

    2006-01-01

    This paper discusses the JPL Cost Engineering Group (CEG) cost risk analysis approach that accounts for all three types of cost risk. It will also describe the evaluation of historical cost data upon which this method is based. This investigation is essential in developing a method that is rooted in engineering realism and produces credible, dependable results to aid decision makers.

  17. The use of current risk analysis tools evaluated towards preventing external domino accidents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reniers, Genserik L L; Dullaert, W.; Ale, B. J.M.; Soudan, K.

    Risk analysis is an essential tool for company safety policy. Risk analysis consists of identifying and evaluating all possible risks. The efficiency of risk analysis tools depends on the rigueur of identifying and evaluating all possible risks. The diversity in risk analysis procedures is such that

  18. Simulation Approach to Mission Risk and Reliability Analysis, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — It is proposed to develop and demonstrate an integrated total-system risk and reliability analysis approach that is based on dynamic, probabilistic simulation. This...

  19. Risk and train control : a framework for analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2001-01-01

    This report develops and demonstrates a framework for examining the effects of various train control strategies on some of the major risks of railroad operations. Analysis of hypothetical 1200-mile corridor identified the main factors that increase r...

  20. Vulnerability and Risk Analysis Program: Overview of Assessment Methodology

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2001-01-01

    .... Over the last three years, a team of national laboratory experts, working in partnership with the energy industry, has successfully applied the methodology as part of OCIP's Vulnerability and Risk Analysis Program (VRAP...

  1. Risk and Interdependencies in Critical Infrastructures A Guideline for Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Utne, Ingrid; Vatn, Jørn

    2012-01-01

    Today’s society is completely dependent on critical networks such as  water supply, sewage, electricity, ICT and transportation. Risk and vulnerability analyses are needed to grasp the impact of threats and hazards. However, these become quite complex as there are strong interdependencies both within and between infrastructure systems. Risk and Interdependencies in Critical Infrastructures: A  guideline for analysis provides methods for analyzing risks and interdependencies of critical infrastructures.  A number of analysis approaches are described and are adapted to each of these infrastructures. Various approaches are also revised, and all are supported by several examples and illustrations. Particular emphasis is given to the analysis of various interdependencies that often exist between the infrastructures.  Risk and Interdependencies in Critical Infrastructures: A  guideline for analysis provides a good tool to identify the hazards that are threatening your infrastructures, and will enhance the un...

  2. Spent fuel pool risk analysis for the Dukovany NPP

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hust' ak, S.; Jaros, M.; Kubicek, J. [UJV Rez, a.s., Husinec-Rez (Czech Republic)

    2013-07-01

    UJV Rez, a.s. maintains a Living Probabilistic Safety Assessment (Living PSA) program for Dukovany Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) in the Czech Republic. This project has been established as a framework for activities related to risk assessment and to support for risk-informed decision making at this plant. The most extensively used PSA application at Dukovany NPP is risk monitoring of instantaneous (point-in-time) risk during plant operation, especially for the purpose of configuration risk management during plant scheduled outages to avoid risk significant configurations. The scope of PSA for Dukovany NPP includes also determination of a risk contribution from spent fuel pool (SFP) operation to provide recommendations for the prevention and mitigation of SFP accidents and to be applicable for configuration risk management. This paper describes the analysis of internal initiating events (IEs) in PSA for Dukovany NPP, which can contribute to the risk from SFP operation. The analysis of those IEs was done more thoroughly in the PSA for Dukovany NPP in order to be used in instantaneous risk monitoring. (orig.)

  3. Common pitfalls in statistical analysis: Absolute risk reduction, relative risk reduction, and number needed to treat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranganathan, Priya; Pramesh, C. S.; Aggarwal, Rakesh

    2016-01-01

    In the previous article in this series on common pitfalls in statistical analysis, we looked at the difference between risk and odds. Risk, which refers to the probability of occurrence of an event or outcome, can be defined in absolute or relative terms. Understanding what these measures represent is essential for the accurate interpretation of study results. PMID:26952180

  4. H15-42: CFD analysis for risk analysis in urban environments - Tilburg city case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hulsbosch-Dam, C.; Mack, A.; Ratingen, S. van; Rosmuller, N.; Trijssenaar, I.

    2013-01-01

    For risk analysis studies, relatively simple dispersion models are generally applied, such as Gaussian dispersion and dense gas dispersion models. For rail transport risk analyses in the Netherlands, fixed consequence distances are applied for various standard scenarios of hazardous materials

  5. Instability risk analysis and risk assessment system establishment of underground storage caverns in bedded salt rock

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jing, Wenjun; Zhao, Yan

    2018-02-01

    Stability is an important part of geotechnical engineering research. The operating experiences of underground storage caverns in salt rock all around the world show that the stability of the caverns is the key problem of safe operation. Currently, the combination of theoretical analysis and numerical simulation are the mainly adopts method of reserve stability analysis. This paper introduces the concept of risk into the stability analysis of underground geotechnical structure, and studies the instability of underground storage cavern in salt rock from the perspective of risk analysis. Firstly, the definition and classification of cavern instability risk is proposed, and the damage mechanism is analyzed from the mechanical angle. Then the main stability evaluating indicators of cavern instability risk are proposed, and an evaluation method of cavern instability risk is put forward. Finally, the established cavern instability risk assessment system is applied to the analysis and prediction of cavern instability risk after 30 years of operation in a proposed storage cavern group in the Huai’an salt mine. This research can provide a useful theoretical base for the safe operation and management of underground storage caverns in salt rock.

  6. Environmental risk analysis of hazardous material rail transportation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saat, Mohd Rapik; Werth, Charles J.; Schaeffer, David; Yoon, Hongkyu; Barkan, Christopher P.L.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Comprehensive, nationwide risk assessment of hazardous material rail transportation. • Application of a novel environmental (i.e. soil and groundwater) consequence model. • Cleanup cost and total shipment distance are the most significant risk factors. • Annual risk varies from $20,000 to $560,000 for different products. • Provides information on the risk cost associated with specific product shipments. -- Abstract: An important aspect of railroad environmental risk management involves tank car transportation of hazardous materials. This paper describes a quantitative, environmental risk analysis of rail transportation of a group of light, non-aqueous-phase liquid (LNAPL) chemicals commonly transported by rail in North America. The Hazardous Materials Transportation Environmental Consequence Model (HMTECM) was used in conjunction with a geographic information system (GIS) analysis of environmental characteristics to develop probabilistic estimates of exposure to different spill scenarios along the North American rail network. The risk analysis incorporated the estimated clean-up cost developed using the HMTECM, route-specific probability distributions of soil type and depth to groundwater, annual traffic volume, railcar accident rate, and tank car safety features, to estimate the nationwide annual risk of transporting each product. The annual risk per car-mile (car-km) and per ton-mile (ton-km) was also calculated to enable comparison between chemicals and to provide information on the risk cost associated with shipments of these products. The analysis and the methodology provide a quantitative approach that will enable more effective management of the environmental risk of transporting hazardous materials

  7. Environmental risk analysis of hazardous material rail transportation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saat, Mohd Rapik, E-mail: mohdsaat@illinois.edu [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1243 Newmark Civil Engineering Laboratory, 205 North Mathews Avenue, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); Werth, Charles J.; Schaeffer, David [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1243 Newmark Civil Engineering Laboratory, 205 North Mathews Avenue, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); Yoon, Hongkyu [Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM 87123 (United States); Barkan, Christopher P.L. [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1243 Newmark Civil Engineering Laboratory, 205 North Mathews Avenue, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States)

    2014-01-15

    Highlights: • Comprehensive, nationwide risk assessment of hazardous material rail transportation. • Application of a novel environmental (i.e. soil and groundwater) consequence model. • Cleanup cost and total shipment distance are the most significant risk factors. • Annual risk varies from $20,000 to $560,000 for different products. • Provides information on the risk cost associated with specific product shipments. -- Abstract: An important aspect of railroad environmental risk management involves tank car transportation of hazardous materials. This paper describes a quantitative, environmental risk analysis of rail transportation of a group of light, non-aqueous-phase liquid (LNAPL) chemicals commonly transported by rail in North America. The Hazardous Materials Transportation Environmental Consequence Model (HMTECM) was used in conjunction with a geographic information system (GIS) analysis of environmental characteristics to develop probabilistic estimates of exposure to different spill scenarios along the North American rail network. The risk analysis incorporated the estimated clean-up cost developed using the HMTECM, route-specific probability distributions of soil type and depth to groundwater, annual traffic volume, railcar accident rate, and tank car safety features, to estimate the nationwide annual risk of transporting each product. The annual risk per car-mile (car-km) and per ton-mile (ton-km) was also calculated to enable comparison between chemicals and to provide information on the risk cost associated with shipments of these products. The analysis and the methodology provide a quantitative approach that will enable more effective management of the environmental risk of transporting hazardous materials.

  8. Probabilistic risk analysis of Angra-1 reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spivak, R.C.; Collussi, I.; Silva, M.C. da; Onusic Junior, J.

    1986-01-01

    The first phase of probabilistic study for safety analysis and operational analysis of Angra-1 reactor is presented. The study objectives and uses are: to support decisions about safety problems; to identify operational and/or project failures; to amplify operator qualification tests to include accidents in addition to project base; to provide informations to be used in development and/or review of operation procedures in emergency, test and maintenance procedures; to obtain experience for data collection about abnormal accurences; utilization of study results for training operators; and training of evaluation and reliability techniques for the personnel of CNEN and FURNAS. (M.C.K.) [pt

  9. ANALYSIS OF RISK FACTORS ECTOPIC PREGNANCY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Budi Santoso

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Ectopic pregnancy is a pregnancy with extrauterine implantation. This situation is gynecologic emergency that contributes to maternal mortality. Therefore, early recognition, based on identification of the causes of ectopic pregnancy risk factors, is needed. Methods: The design descriptive observational. The samples were pregnant women who had ectopic pregnancy at Maternity Room, Emergency Unit, Dr. Soetomo Hospital, Surabaya, from 1 July 2008 to 1 July 2010. Sampling technique was total sampling using medical records. Result: Patients with ectopic pregnancy were 99 individuals out of 2090 pregnant women who searched for treatment in Dr. Soetomo Hospital. However, only 29 patients were accompanied with traceable risk factors. Discussion:. Most ectopic pregnancies were in the age group of 26-30 years, comprising 32 patients (32.32%, then in age groups of 31–35 years as many as 25 patients (25.25%, 18 patients in age group 21–25 years (18.18%, 17 patients in age group 36–40 years (17.17%, 4 patients in age group 41 years and more (4.04%, and the least was in age group of 16–20 years with 3 patients (3.03%. A total of 12 patients with ectopic pregnancy (41.38% had experience of abortion and 6 patients (20.69% each in groups of patients with ectopic pregnancy who used family planning, in those who used family planning as well as ectopic pregnancy patients with history of surgery. There were 2 patients (6.90% of the group of patients ectopic pregnancy who had history of surgery and history of abortion. The incidence rate of ectopic pregnancy was 4.73%, mostly in the second gravidity (34.34%, whereas the nulliparous have the highest prevalence of 39.39%. Acquired risk factors, i.e. history of operations was 10.34%, patients with family planning 20.69%, patients with history of abortion 41.38%, patients with history of abortion and operation 6.90% patients with family and history of abortion was 20.69%.

  10. Quantitative risk analysis in two pipelines operated by TRANSPETRO

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia, Claudio B. [PETROBRAS Transporte S/A (TRANSPETRO), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Pinho, Edson [Universidade Federal Rural do Rio de Janeiro (UFRRJ), Seropedica, RJ (Brazil); Bittencourt, Euclides [Centro Universitario FIB, Salvador , BA (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    Transportation risk analysis techniques were used to study two pipelines operated by TRANSPETRO. The Pipeline A is for the simultaneous transportation of diesel, gasoline and LPG and comprises three parts, all of them crossing rural areas. The Pipeline B is for oil transportation and one of its ends is located in an area of a high density population. Both pipelines had their risk studied using the PHAST RISK{sup R} software and the individual risk measures, the only considered measures for license purposes for this type of studies, presented level far below the maximum tolerable levels considered. (author)

  11. THE ANALYSIS OF RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS WITHIN MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ROMANESCU MARCEL LAURENTIU

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available This article highlights the risk analysis within management, focusing on how a company could practicaly integrate the risks management in the existing leading process. Subsequently, it is exemplified the way of manage risk effectively, which gives numerous advantages to all firms, including improving their decision-making process. All these lead to the conclusion that the degree of risk specific to companies is very high, but if managers make the best decisions then it can diminish it and all business activitiy and its income are not influenced by factors that could disturb in a negative way .

  12. Risk factors for recurrent falls among Brazilian women and men: the Brazilian Osteoporosis Study (BRAZOS Fatores de risco para quedas recorrentes entre mulheres e homens brasileiros: o Estudo Brasileiro sobre Osteoporose (BRAZOS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcelo de Medeiros Pinheiro

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the study was to estimate the frequency of recurrent falls and identify the main associated risk factors. The BRAZOS is the first epidemiological study performed on a representative sample of the Brazilian population. Anthropometric data, living habits, previous fractures, falls, dietary intake, physical activity and quality of life were evaluated in 2,420 individuals aged 40 and older. Recurrent falls were reported by 15.5% of men and 25.6% of women. Among women, the risk factors significantly associated to recurrent falls were age, previous fracture, sedentary lifestyle, poor quality of life, diabetes mellitus and current use of benzodiazepine. In men, the risk factors were age, poor quality of life, intake of alcoholic beverages, diabetes mellitus, previous fracture and use of benzodiazepine. A greater intake of vitamin D had a protector effect on the risk of recurrent falls. These findings demonstrated the high prevalence of recurrent falls and emphasize that a multidisciplinary approach is necessary to minimize recurrent falls and their consequences, including osteoporotic fractures.Estimar a freqüência de quedas recorrentes e identificar os principais fatores de risco associados. O BRAZOS é o primeiro estudo epidemiológico realizado em amostragem representativa da população brasileira. Dados antropométricos, hábitos de vida, fratura prévia, quedas, dieta, atividade física e qualidade de vida foram avaliados em 2.420 indivíduos adultos. Quedas recorrentes foram referidas por 15,5% dos homens e 25,6% das mulheres. Nas mulheres, os fatores de risco associados com quedas recorrentes foram idade, fratura prévia, sedentarismo, pior qualidade de vida, diabete mellitus e uso atual de benzodiazepínicos. Nos homens, foram idade, pior qualidade de vida, consumo de bebidas alcoólicas, diabete mellitus, fratura prévia e uso atual de benzodiazepínicos. Maior ingestão de vitamina D desempenhou efeito protetor sobre o

  13. Estudo das freqüências dos principais fatores de risco para acidente vascular cerebral isquêmico em idosos Study of the main risk factors frequencies for ischemic cerebrovascular disease in elderly patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sueli Luciano Pires

    2004-09-01

    Full Text Available Foram estudados retrospectivamente 262 pacientes com diagnóstico clínico de acidente vascular cerebral isquêmico (AVCi permanente, com idade igual ou superior a 60 anos, selecionados dos 1015 registros da Liga de Aterosclerose da Clínica Neurológica da ISCMSP, de 1990 a 2002. O estudo focalizou as freqüências dos fatores de risco modificáveis para AVCi nesta população idosa, considerando-se sexo e faixa etária dos pacientes. Os resultados evidenciaram que a hipertenção arterial sistêmica é significativamente freqüente (87,8% entre pacientes idosos com AVCi, independentemente do sexo e da faixa etária. Tabagismo (46,9% e etilismo (35,1% revelaram-se fatores de riscos modificáveis freqüentes especialmente entre os homens. As cardiopatias (27,0%, o Diabete Melito (19,9% e as dislipidemias (15,6% também se revelaram fatores de risco modificáveis freqüentes em pacientes idosos com AVCi, em ambos os sexos e em ambas as faixas etárias estudadas (60 a 70 anos e mais que 71 anos. Foi relativamente baixa a freqüência de hiperuricemia nesta amostra.Two hundred and sixty two patients with clinical diagnosis of permanent ischemic stroke, all of them aged 60 or more were retrospectively studied from the 1015 cerebrovascular diseases (CVD records of the Atherosclerosis Ligue of the Neurology Clinics of the ISCMSP, from 1990 to 2002. The study emphasized modifiable risk factors frequencies for ischemic stroke in this population, considering gender and age of the patients. Results have evidenced that systemic arterial hypertension is a main risk factor significantly frequent in old people (87.8%, independently of gender and age. Smoking (46.9% and alcohol consumption (35.1% have revealed to be very frequent important modifiable risk factors especially among men. Lower frequencies have been presented for cardiac diseases (27.0%, Diabetes Melitus (19.9%, and dislipidemia (15.6% as risk factors for ischemic stroke in old people of both

  14. Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon; Kelly, Dana; Smith, Curtis; Vedros, Kurt; Galyean, William

    2009-01-01

    This document, Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis, is intended to provide guidelines for the collection and evaluation of risk and reliability-related data. It is aimed at scientists and engineers familiar with risk and reliability methods and provides a hands-on approach to the investigation and application of a variety of risk and reliability data assessment methods, tools, and techniques. This document provides both: A broad perspective on data analysis collection and evaluation issues. A narrow focus on the methods to implement a comprehensive information repository. The topics addressed herein cover the fundamentals of how data and information are to be used in risk and reliability analysis models and their potential role in decision making. Understanding these topics is essential to attaining a risk informed decision making environment that is being sought by NASA requirements and procedures such as 8000.4 (Agency Risk Management Procedural Requirements), NPR 8705.05 (Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures for NASA Programs and Projects), and the System Safety requirements of NPR 8715.3 (NASA General Safety Program Requirements).

  15. Risk analysis of analytical validations by probabilistic modification of FMEA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barends, D.M.; Oldenhof, M.T.; Vredenbregt, M.J.

    2012-01-01

    Risk analysis is a valuable addition to validation of an analytical chemistry process, enabling not only detecting technical risks, but also risks related to human failures. Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) can be applied, using a categorical risk scoring of the occurrence, detection...... and severity of failure modes, and calculating the Risk Priority Number (RPN) to select failure modes for correction. We propose a probabilistic modification of FMEA, replacing the categorical scoring of occurrence and detection by their estimated relative frequency and maintaining the categorical scoring...... of severity. In an example, the results of traditional FMEA of a Near Infrared (NIR) analytical procedure used for the screening of suspected counterfeited tablets are re-interpretated by this probabilistic modification of FMEA. Using this probabilistic modification of FMEA, the frequency of occurrence...

  16. [Survival analysis with competing risks: estimating failure probability].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llorca, Javier; Delgado-Rodríguez, Miguel

    2004-01-01

    To show the impact of competing risks of death on survival analysis. We provide an example of survival time without chronic rejection after heart transplantation, where death before rejection acts as a competing risk. Using a computer simulation, we compare the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the multiple decrement model. The Kaplan-Meier method overestimated the probability of rejection. Next, we illustrate the use of the multiple decrement model to analyze secondary end points (in our example: death after rejection). Finally, we discuss Kaplan-Meier assumptions and why they fail in the presence of competing risks. Survival analysis should be adjusted for competing risks of death to avoid overestimation of the risk of rejection produced with the Kaplan-Meier method.

  17. Risk-benefit analysis and public policy: a bibliography

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clark, E.M.; Van Horn, A.J.

    1976-11-01

    Risk-benefit analysis has been implicitly practiced whenever decision-makers are confronted with decisions involving risks to life, health, or to the environment. Various methodologies have been developed to evaluate relevant criteria and to aid in assessing the impacts of alternative projects. Among these have been cost-benefit analysis, which has been widely used for project evaluation. However, in many cases it has been difficult to assign dollar costs to those criteria involving risks and benefits which are not now assigned explicit monetary values in our economic system. Hence, risk-benefit analysis has evolved to become more than merely an extension of cost-benefit analysis, and many methods have been applied to examine the trade-offs between risks and benefits. In addition, new scientific and statistical techniques have been developed for assessing current and future risks. The 950 references included in this bibliography are meant to suggest the breadth of those methodologies which have been applied to decisions involving risk.

  18. Risk-benefit analysis and public policy: a bibliography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clark, E.M.; Van Horn, A.J.

    1976-11-01

    Risk-benefit analysis has been implicitly practiced whenever decision-makers are confronted with decisions involving risks to life, health, or to the environment. Various methodologies have been developed to evaluate relevant criteria and to aid in assessing the impacts of alternative projects. Among these have been cost-benefit analysis, which has been widely used for project evaluation. However, in many cases it has been difficult to assign dollar costs to those criteria involving risks and benefits which are not now assigned explicit monetary values in our economic system. Hence, risk-benefit analysis has evolved to become more than merely an extension of cost-benefit analysis, and many methods have been applied to examine the trade-offs between risks and benefits. In addition, new scientific and statistical techniques have been developed for assessing current and future risks. The 950 references included in this bibliography are meant to suggest the breadth of those methodologies which have been applied to decisions involving risk

  19. Analysis of labour risks in the Spanish industrial aerospace sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JUAN LAGUARDIA

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Labour risk prevention is an activity integrated within Safety and Hygiene at Work in Spain. In 2003, the Electronic Declaration for Accidents at Work, Delt@ (DELTA was introduced. The industrial aerospace sector is subject to various risks. Our objective is to analyse the Spanish Industrial Aerospace Sector (SIAS using the ACSOM methodology to assess its labour risks and to prioritise preventive actions. The SIAS and the Services Subsector (SS were created and the relevant accident rate data were obtained. The ACSOM method was applied through double contrast (deviation and translocation of the SIAS or SS risk polygon with the considered pattern, accidents from all sectors (ACSOM G or the SIAS. A list of risks was obtained, ordered by action phases. In the SIAS vs. ACSOM G analysis, radiation risks were the worst, followed by overstrains. Accidents caused by living beings were also significant in the SS vs. SIAE, which will be able to be used to improve Risk Prevention. Radiation is the most significant risk in the SIAS and the SS. Preventive actions will be primary and secondary. ACSOM has shown itself to be a valid tool for the analysis of labour risks.

  20. Analysis of labour risks in the Spanish industrial aerospace sector.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laguardia, Juan; Rubio, Emilio; Garcia, Ana; Garcia-Foncillas, Rafael

    2016-01-01

    Labour risk prevention is an activity integrated within Safety and Hygiene at Work in Spain. In 2003, the Electronic Declaration for Accidents at Work, Delt@ (DELTA) was introduced. The industrial aerospace sector is subject to various risks. Our objective is to analyse the Spanish Industrial Aerospace Sector (SIAS) using the ACSOM methodology to assess its labour risks and to prioritise preventive actions. The SIAS and the Services Subsector (SS) were created and the relevant accident rate data were obtained. The ACSOM method was applied through double contrast (deviation and translocation) of the SIAS or SS risk polygon with the considered pattern, accidents from all sectors (ACSOM G) or the SIAS. A list of risks was obtained, ordered by action phases. In the SIAS vs. ACSOM G analysis, radiation risks were the worst, followed by overstrains. Accidents caused by living beings were also significant in the SS vs. SIAE, which will be able to be used to improve Risk Prevention. Radiation is the most significant risk in the SIAS and the SS. Preventive actions will be primary and secondary. ACSOM has shown itself to be a valid tool for the analysis of labour risks.

  1. APPROPRIATE ALLOCATION OF CONTINGENCY USING RISK ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andi Andi

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Many cost overruns in the world of construction are attributable to either unforeseen events or foreseen events for which uncertainty was not appropriately accommodated. It is argued that a significant improvement to project management performance may result from greater attention to the process of analyzing project risks. The objective of this paper is to propose a risk analysis methodology for appropriate allocation of contingency in project cost estimation. In the first step, project risks will be identified. Influence diagramming technique is employed to identify and to show how the risks affect the project cost elements and also the relationships among the risks themselves. The second step is to assess the project costs with regards to the risks under consideration. Using a linguistic approach, the degree of uncertainty of identified project risks is assessed and quantified. The problem of dependency between risks is taken into consideration during this analysis. For the final step, as the main purpose of this paper, a method for allocating appropriate contingency is presented. Two types of contingencies, i.e. project contingency and management reserve are proposed to accommodate the risks. An illustrative example is presented at the end to show the application of the methodology.

  2. Structural reliability analysis and seismic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hwang, H.; Reich, M.; Shinozuka, M.

    1984-01-01

    This paper presents a reliability analysis method for safety evaluation of nuclear structures. By utilizing this method, it is possible to estimate the limit state probability in the lifetime of structures and to generate analytically the fragility curves for PRA studies. The earthquake ground acceleration, in this approach, is represented by a segment of stationary Gaussian process with a zero mean and a Kanai-Tajimi Spectrum. All possible seismic hazard at a site represented by a hazard curve is also taken into consideration. Furthermore, the limit state of a structure is analytically defined and the corresponding limit state surface is then established. Finally, the fragility curve is generated and the limit state probability is evaluated. In this paper, using a realistic reinforced concrete containment as an example, results of the reliability analysis of the containment subjected to dead load, live load and ground earthquake acceleration are presented and a fragility curve for PRA studies is also constructed

  3. Methodology for flood risk analysis for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wagner, D.P.; Casada, M.L.; Fussell, J.B.

    1984-01-01

    The methodology for flood risk analysis described here addresses the effects of a flood on nuclear power plant safety systems. Combining the results of this method with the probability of a flood allows the effects of flooding to be included in a probabilistic risk assessment. The five-step methodology includes accident sequence screening to focus the detailed analysis efforts on the accident sequences that are significantly affected by a flood event. The quantitative results include the flood's contribution to system failure probability, accident sequence occurrence frequency and consequence category occurrence frequency. The analysis can be added to existing risk assessments without a significant loss in efficiency. The results of two example applications show the usefulness of the methodology. Both examples rely on the Reactor Safety Study for the required risk assessment inputs and present changes in the Reactor Safety Study results as a function of flood probability

  4. Methodology for risk-based analysis of technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vesely, W.E.; Gaertner, J.P.; Wagner, D.P.

    1985-01-01

    Part of the effort by EPRI to apply probabilistic risk assessment methods and results to the solution of utility problems involves the investigation of methods for risk-based analysis of technical specifications. The culmination of this investigation is the SOCRATES computer code developed by Battelle's Columbus Laboratories to assist in the evaluation of technical specifications of nuclear power plants. The program is designed to use information found in PRAs to re-evaluate risk for changes in component allowed outage times (AOTs) and surveillance test intervals (STIs). The SOCRATES program is a unique and important tool for technical specification evaluations. The detailed component unavailability model allows a detailed analysis of AOT and STI contributions to risk. Explicit equations allow fast and inexpensive calculations. Because the code is designed to accept ranges of parameters and to save results of calculations that do not change during the analysis, sensitivity studies are efficiently performed and results are clearly displayed

  5. Maritime transportation risk analysis: Review and analysis in light of some foundational issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goerlandt, Floris; Montewka, Jakub

    2015-01-01

    Many methods and applications for maritime transportation risk analysis have been presented in the literature. In parallel, there is a recent focus on foundational issues in risk analysis, with calls for intensified research on fundamental concepts and principles underlying the scientific field. This paper presents a review and analysis of risk definitions, perspectives and scientific approaches to risk analysis found in the maritime transportation application area, focusing on applications addressing accidental risk of shipping in a sea area. For this purpose, a classification of risk definitions, an overview of elements in risk perspectives and a classification of approaches to risk analysis science are applied. Results reveal that in the application area, risk is strongly tied to probability, both in definitions and perspectives, while alternative views exist. A diffuse situation is also found concerning the scientific approach to risk analysis, with realist, proceduralist and constructivist foundations co-existing. Realist approaches dominate the application area. Very few applications systematically account for uncertainty, neither concerning the evidence base nor in relation to the limitations of the risk model in relation to the space of possible outcomes. Some suggestions are made to improve the current situation, aiming to strengthen the scientific basis for risk analysis. - Highlights: • Risk analyses in maritime transportation analysed in light of foundational issues. • Focus on definitions, perspectives and scientific approaches to risk analysis. • Probability-based definitions and realist approaches dominate the field. • Findings support calls for increased focus on foundational issues in risk research. • Some suggestions are made to improve the current situation

  6. PEATE automático em recém nascidos de risco: estudo da sensibilidade e especificidade Automatic ABR in newborns risk: study of sensitivity and specificity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosanna Mariangela Giaffredo Angrisani

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available OBJETIVO: verificar a sensibilidade e especificidade do teste de potencial evocado auditivo de tronco encefálico em equipamento automático (PEATEa, comparando-o ao teste de potencial evocado auditivo de tronco encefálico em equipamento diagnóstico (PEATE em um programa de triagem auditiva neonatal em neonatos de risco. MÉTODO: foram avaliados 186 neonatos, 83 nascidos a termo e 103 pré-termo, sendo 88 do sexo masculino e 98 feminino. A triagem constou de emissões otoacústicas evocadas por estímulos transientes (EOAT, PEATEa e ao PEATE na mesma semana. RESULTADOS: dos 186 neonatos avaliados, 156 (83,9% apresentaram audição normal. A perda condutiva foi encontrada em 9 neonatos (4,8%,sendo 7 bilaterais e 2 unilaterais. A perda auditiva coclear foi observada em 5 neonatos (2,7% sendo um unilateral. Alteração central foi obtida em 11 neonatos (5,9% e um neonato foi diagnosticado como espectro da neuropatia auditiva -ENA(0,5%.Em 4 casos houve atraso maturacional na avaliação inicial com normalização das respostas no mês seguinte Comparando-se os resultados do PEATEa com o PEATE, observou-se alta sensibilidade ( superior a 99% para identificação de perda coclear,condutiva, central, atraso maturacional e ENA .A especificidade do PEATEa foi de 100% para ENA, mediana para perda coclear (75% na OD e 60% na OE, e para alterações centrais (54,5%OD e 63,6% OE. Para identificação de perdas condutivas (inferior a 43%. CONCLUSÃO: o PEATEa foi eficaz na identificação das neuropatias auditivas com elevada especificidade e sensibilidade. Contudo, falsos negativos foram observados para perdas cocleares, condutivas, para alterações centrais e atraso maturacional.PURPOSE: to study the sensitivity and specificity of automatic ABR in comparison to diagnostic ABR of newborns under risk in a neonatal hearing screening program. METHOD: one hundred and eighty six neonates were evaluated, 83 born at term and 103 were pre terms, 88 male and 98

  7. Risk factors for presbycusis in a socio-economic middle-class sample Estudo de fatores de risco para presbiacusia em indivíduos de classe sócio-econômica média

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cláudia Simônica de Sousa

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available Presbycusis, or the aging ear, involves mainly the inner ear and the cochlear nerve, causing sensorineural hearing loss. Risk factors include systemic diseases and poor habits that cause inner ear damage and lead to presbycusis. Correct identification of these risk factors is relevant for prevention. AIM: To evaluate the prevalence and to identify the risk factors of presbycusis in a sample aged over 40 years. Study design: a retrospective case series. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: medical records of 625 patients were evaluated. Presbycusis was identified using pure tone audiometry, speech audiometry and impedance testing of all patients. RESULTS: The prevalence of presbycusis was 36.1%; the mean age was 50.5 years ranging from 40 to 86 years; 85.5% were male and 14.5% werf female. Age, the male gender, diabetes mellitus, and hereditary hearing loss were identified as risk factors. Cardiovascular diseases, smoking and consumption of alcohol were not confirmed as risk factors, although these have often been mentioned as risk factors for presbycusis. CONCLUSION: Notwithstanding the idea that presbycusis has multiple risk factors, this study identified few risk factors for this disease.A presbiacusia é consequência de lesões histopatológicas da orelha interna e nervo coclear e leva à deficiência auditiva sensório-neural. Fatores de risco como doenças sistêmicas e hábitos inadequados são agravantes para presbiacusia. A identificação destes fatores é relevante para sua prevenção. OBJETIVO: Avaliar a prevalência da presbiacusia e correlacionar eventuais fatores de risco numa amostra populacional. CASUÍSTICA E MÉTODO: Estudo retrospectivo de série de casos com amostragem aleatória de 625 prontuários de indiv��duos sem e com presbiacusia determinada por avaliação audiológica convencional. Foi feita a análise da associação da presbiacusia com fatores de risco pré-estabelecidos. RESULTADOS: A prevalência da presbiacusia foi de 36

  8. Probabilistic methodology for turbine missile risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Twisdale, L.A.; Dunn, W.L.; Frank, R.A.

    1984-01-01

    A methodology has been developed for estimation of the probabilities of turbine-generated missile damage to nuclear power plant structures and systems. Mathematical models of the missile generation, transport, and impact events have been developed and sequenced to form an integrated turbine missile simulation methodology. Probabilistic Monte Carlo techniques are used to estimate the plant impact and damage probabilities. The methodology has been coded in the TURMIS computer code to facilitate numerical analysis and plant-specific turbine missile probability assessments. Sensitivity analyses have been performed on both the individual models and the integrated methodology, and probabilities have been estimated for a hypothetical nuclear power plant case study. (orig.)

  9. Source modelling in seismic risk analysis for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yucemen, M.S.

    1978-12-01

    The proposed probabilistic procedure provides a consistent method for the modelling, analysis and updating of uncertainties that are involved in the seismic risk analysis for nuclear power plants. The potential earthquake activity zones are idealized as point, line or area sources. For these seismic source types, expressions to evaluate their contribution to seismic risk are derived, considering all the possible site-source configurations. The seismic risk at a site is found to depend not only on the inherent randomness of the earthquake occurrences with respect to magnitude, time and space, but also on the uncertainties associated with the predicted values of the seismic and geometric parameters, as well as the uncertainty in the attenuation model. The uncertainty due to the attenuation equation is incorporated into the analysis through the use of random correction factors. The influence of the uncertainty resulting from the insufficient information on the seismic parameters and source geometry is introduced into the analysis by computing a mean risk curve averaged over the various alternative assumptions on the parameters and source geometry. Seismic risk analysis is carried for the city of Denizli, which is located in the seismically most active zone of Turkey. The second analysis is for Akkuyu

  10. Challenges in the vulnerability and risk analysis of critical infrastructures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zio, Enrico

    2016-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to provide a systematic view on the problem of vulnerability and risk analysis of critical infrastructures. Reflections are made on the inherent complexities of these systems, related challenges are identified and possible ways forward for their analysis and management are indicated. Specifically: the framework of vulnerability and risk analysis is examined in relation to its application for the protection and resilience of critical infrastructures; it is argued that the complexity of these systems is a challenging characteristic, which calls for the integration of different modeling perspectives and new approaches of analysis; examples of are given in relation to the Internet and, particularly, the electric power grid, as representative of critical infrastructures and the associated complexity; the integration of different types of analyses and methods of system modeling is put forward for capturing the inherent structural and dynamic complexities of critical infrastructures and eventually evaluating their vulnerability and risk characteristics, so that decisions on protections and resilience actions can be taken with the required confidence. - Highlights: • The problem of the protection and resilience of CIs is the focus of the work. • The vulnerability and risk analysis framework for this is critically examined. • The complexity of CIs is presented as a challenge for system modeling and analysis. • The integration of different modeling perspectives of analysis is put forward as a solution. • The extension of the analysis framework to new methods for dealing with surprises and black swans is advocated.

  11. Revealing the underlying drivers of disaster risk: a global analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peduzzi, Pascal

    2017-04-01

    Disasters events are perfect examples of compound events. Disaster risk lies at the intersection of several independent components such as hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Understanding the weight of each component requires extensive standardisation. Here, I show how footprints of past disastrous events were generated using GIS modelling techniques and used for extracting population and economic exposures based on distribution models. Using past event losses, it was possible to identify and quantify a wide range of socio-politico-economic drivers associated with human vulnerability. The analysis was applied to about nine thousand individual past disastrous events covering earthquakes, floods and tropical cyclones. Using a multiple regression analysis on these individual events it was possible to quantify each risk component and assess how vulnerability is influenced by various hazard intensities. The results show that hazard intensity, exposure, poverty, governance as well as other underlying factors (e.g. remoteness) can explain the magnitude of past disasters. Analysis was also performed to highlight the role of future trends in population and climate change and how this may impacts exposure to tropical cyclones in the future. GIS models combined with statistical multiple regression analysis provided a powerful methodology to identify, quantify and model disaster risk taking into account its various components. The same methodology can be applied to various types of risk at local to global scale. This method was applied and developed for the Global Risk Analysis of the Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR). It was first applied on mortality risk in GAR 2009 and GAR 2011. New models ranging from global assets exposure and global flood hazard models were also recently developed to improve the resolution of the risk analysis and applied through CAPRA software to provide probabilistic economic risk assessments such as Average Annual Losses (AAL

  12. Aspects of the risk analysis in the process engineering industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hennings, W.; Madjar, M.; Mock, R.; Reer, B.

    1996-01-01

    This document is the result of a multi-discipline working group of a portion of a project called Risk analysis for chemical plants. Within the framework of the project, only selected methods and tools of risk analysis, thus, aspects of method, were able to be discussed and developed further. Case examples from the chemical industry are dealt with in order to discuss the application of a computer assisted quantitative error analysis in this industrial sector. Included is also a comprehensive documentation of the data and results utilised in the examples. figs., tabs., refs

  13. Modelo operário e percepção de riscos ocupacionais e ambientais: o uso exemplar de estudo descritivo The "worker model" and perception of environmental and occupational risks: the optimal use of a descriptive study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luiz A. Facchini

    1991-10-01

    Full Text Available Objetivou-se identificar os riscos resultantes da exposição a produtos químicos, de trabalhadores de indústria química e farmacêutica. Realizou-se estudo descritivo, através do modelo operário (MO, onde o acesso aos trabalhadores significava uma parte essencial do método e a única forma de neutralizar a impossibilidade de acesso ao local de trabalho. Reconstruíam-se as atividades dos setores de trabalho e identificaram-se as principais substâncias químicas utilizadas, as queixas mais referidas, os danos potenciais e os principais riscos ambientais, concluindo pela precariedade das condições gerais de trabalho. Com os resultados confirmados, ficou evidenciada a importância do MO e sua utilidade metodológica, levando trabalhadores a conseguir das autoridades que a empresa fosse vistoriada. A mobilização dos trabalhadores, através de denúncias nos meios de comunicação, ajudou a formar uma consciência popular dos riscos ocupacionais e ambientais daquela atividade produtiva.An attempt was made to identify the risks resulting from exposure to the chemicals to which workers are exposed as well as from the poor working conditions to which they are subject in a chemical and pharmaceutical factory. A descriptive study based on the "workers model" - a methodological approach developed in Italy in the 60's, was carried out. Such a study requires direct contact with the workers and has the advantage of overcoming the difficulty of gaining access to their work-place. The activities of the different departments of the plant were reconstructed and the main chemicals used, the main physical complaints, the potencial harms and the main environmental risks identified. The repon on the harmful working conditions produced was used by the workers as a means of pressing the authorities into carrying out an inspection of the plant concerned to verify its accuracy. The report's findings have been confirmed and demonstrate the usefulness of the

  14. Is adaptation or transformation needed? Active nanomaterials and risk analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuzma, Jennifer; Roberts, John Patrick

    2016-07-01

    Nanotechnology has been a key area of funding and policy for the United States and globally for the past two decades. Since nanotechnology research and development became a focus and nanoproducts began to permeate the market, scholars and scientists have been concerned about how to assess the risks that they may pose to human health and the environment. The newest generation of nanomaterials includes biomolecules that can respond to and influence their environments, and there is a need to explore whether and how existing risk-analysis frameworks are challenged by such novelty. To fill this niche, we used a modified approach of upstream oversight assessment (UOA), a subset of anticipatory governance. We first selected case studies of "active nanomaterials," that are early in research and development and designed for use in multiple sectors, and then considered them under several, key risk-analysis frameworks. We found two ways in which the cases challenge the frameworks. The first category relates to how to assess risk under a narrow framing of the term (direct health and environmental harm), and the second involves the definition of what constitutes a "risk" worthy of assessment and consideration in decision making. In light of these challenges, we propose some changes for risk analysis in the face of active nanostructures in order to improve risk governance.

  15. Cable Hot Shorts and Circuit Analysis in Fire Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    LaChance, Jeffrey; Nowlen, Steven P.; Wyant, Frank

    1999-01-01

    Under existing methods of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), the analysis of fire-induced circuit faults has typically been conducted on a simplistic basis. In particular, those hot-short methodologies that have been applied remain controversial in regards to the scope of the assessments, the underlying methods, and the assumptions employed. To address weaknesses in fire PRA methodologies, the USNRC has initiated a fire risk analysis research program that includes a task for improving the tools for performing circuit analysis. The objective of this task is to obtain a better understanding of the mechanisms linking fire-induced cable damage to potentially risk-significant failure modes of power, control, and instrumentation cables. This paper discusses the current status of the circuit analysis task

  16. Cyber Risk Management for Critical Infrastructure: A Risk Analysis Model and Three Case Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paté-Cornell, M-Elisabeth; Kuypers, Marshall; Smith, Matthew; Keller, Philip

    2018-02-01

    Managing cyber security in an organization involves allocating the protection budget across a spectrum of possible options. This requires assessing the benefits and the costs of these options. The risk analyses presented here are statistical when relevant data are available, and system-based for high-consequence events that have not happened yet. This article presents, first, a general probabilistic risk analysis framework for cyber security in an organization to be specified. It then describes three examples of forward-looking analyses motivated by recent cyber attacks. The first one is the statistical analysis of an actual database, extended at the upper end of the loss distribution by a Bayesian analysis of possible, high-consequence attack scenarios that may happen in the future. The second is a systems analysis of cyber risks for a smart, connected electric grid, showing that there is an optimal level of connectivity. The third is an analysis of sequential decisions to upgrade the software of an existing cyber security system or to adopt a new one to stay ahead of adversaries trying to find their way in. The results are distributions of losses to cyber attacks, with and without some considered countermeasures in support of risk management decisions based both on past data and anticipated incidents. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  17. Ontology-based specification, identification and analysis of perioperative risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uciteli, Alexandr; Neumann, Juliane; Tahar, Kais; Saleh, Kutaiba; Stucke, Stephan; Faulbrück-Röhr, Sebastian; Kaeding, André; Specht, Martin; Schmidt, Tobias; Neumuth, Thomas; Besting, Andreas; Stegemann, Dominik; Portheine, Frank; Herre, Heinrich

    2017-09-06

    Medical personnel in hospitals often works under great physical and mental strain. In medical decision-making, errors can never be completely ruled out. Several studies have shown that between 50 and 60% of adverse events could have been avoided through better organization, more attention or more effective security procedures. Critical situations especially arise during interdisciplinary collaboration and the use of complex medical technology, for example during surgical interventions and in perioperative settings (the period of time before, during and after surgical intervention). In this paper, we present an ontology and an ontology-based software system, which can identify risks across medical processes and supports the avoidance of errors in particular in the perioperative setting. We developed a practicable definition of the risk notion, which is easily understandable by the medical staff and is usable for the software tools. Based on this definition, we developed a Risk Identification Ontology (RIO) and used it for the specification and the identification of perioperative risks. An agent system was developed, which gathers risk-relevant data during the whole perioperative treatment process from various sources and provides it for risk identification and analysis in a centralized fashion. The results of such an analysis are provided to the medical personnel in form of context-sensitive hints and alerts. For the identification of the ontologically specified risks, we developed an ontology-based software module, called Ontology-based Risk Detector (OntoRiDe). About 20 risks relating to cochlear implantation (CI) have already been implemented. Comprehensive testing has indicated the correctness of the data acquisition, risk identification and analysis components, as well as the web-based visualization of results.

  18. Risk analysis of radioactive waste management systems in Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wingender, H.J.

    1978-01-01

    Within the scope of a system study, ''Radioactive wastes in the Federal Republic of Germany,'' performed from 1974 through 1976, the questions of risk assessment were investigated. A risk analysis of a high-level waste (HLW) management system was performed. The results of the HLW tank storage are that the risk expectation value is 700 nJ/kg x RBE (7 x 10 -5 rem) per year for atmospheric release. The discussion of the main contributing accidents shows the possibility of reducing the risk by a technical means. A qualitative comparison on the release basis with the results of the WASH-1400 report shows significant differences that can be explained by the different methodologies applied. The risk analysis activities have led to a comprehensive risk assessment project, which was recently started. The projected includes research and development tasks concerning nuclide migration and transport to the ecosphere, nuclide mobilization by various mechanisms, methodology problems, data collection, computer code development, as well as risk analyses of waste management facilities. It is intended to round off the project with risk analyses of spent fuel element transport, storage, and reprocessing

  19. Variáveis reprodutivas e risco para doenças benignas de mama: estudo caso-controle Reproductive variables and risk of benign breast diseases: a case-control study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ellen E. Hardy

    1990-10-01

    Full Text Available Foram estudadas 257 mulheres com diagnóstico de doença benigna de mama (DBM, atestado por anatomopatológico ou citologia, e um controle para cada uma delas. Foram apresentados resultados das possíveis relações entre variáveis reprodutivas e o risco para DBM. Os casos e controles foram comparados levando em conta a idade na menarca e na menopausa, o número de gravidezes, de meses em que amamentaram e de ciclos menstruais ovulatórios, e os antecedentes familiares de câncer de mama. Mostraram influência significativa, em relação às DBM, a nuliparidade, aumentando o risco enquanto a idade de 30 ou mais anos no primeiro parto o reduziu; o número de ciclos ovulatórios, que foi significativamente maior para os casos, e a média de meses de uso de pílula, menor entre as mulheres com DBM. O uso de contraceptivos orais apresentou um efeito protetor apenas quando a duração total do uso foi maior que dois anos. Os resultados não se revelaram novos ou diferentes se comparados com outros estudos, mas confirmam a relativa concordância entre os fatores de risco para DBM e para câncer de mama, ainda que as relações entre esses fatores e as DBM não sejam tão claras como o são para o câncer, e existam também algumas discrepâncias.The purpose of the study was the identification of risk factors for benign breast diseases (BBD; 257 women with BBD diagnosed through pathological anatomy or citology and a matched control for each were studied. Subjects were selected at The State University of Campinas Hospital and at a private clinic. To enter the study cases had to have a first diagnosis of BBD between October 1979 and August 1984. The following BBD were considered: dysplasia, fibroadenoma, cystic disease, papilloma and ductal ectasia. Reproductive variables were studied as risk factors, including menstrual ovulatory cycles. The date on which the BBD was diagnosed was defined as the index date. For controls, data were considered up to when

  20. Fire risk analysis in ITER tritium building

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lignini, Franck; Uzan-Elbez, Joelle; Girard, Jean-Philippe; Porfiri, Maria Teresa; Rodriguez-Rodrigo, Lina

    2005-01-01

    Events, such as fire, have been considered in ITER documentation of low probability and a general approach has been defined in [Technical basis for the ITER final design, EDA Documentation Series I, No. 22, IAEA, Vienna, 2001] to be developed later for the ITER specific site. It was said that 'these hazards will be treated according to the industrial safety regulations and practices of the host country'. In the framework of studies for the European ITER site in Cadarache, an assessment of fire hazard has been done in order to ensure compliance with French safety requirements. In this report, a summary of existing laws is presented and an example of the deterministic approach to be followed for the preliminary safety report (PSR) is given on the analysis of tritium building design

  1. DORIAN, Bayes Method Plant Age Risk Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atwood, C.L.

    2002-01-01

    1 - Description of program or function: DORIAN is an integrated package for performing Bayesian aging analysis of reliability data; e.g. for identifying trends in component failure rates and/or outage durations as a function of time. The user must specify several alternative hypothesized 'aging models' (i.e., possible trends) along prior probabilities indicating the subject probability that each trend is actually the correct one. DORIAN then uses component failure and/or repair data over time to update these prior probabilities and develop a posterior probability for each aging model, representing the probability that each model is the correct one in light of the observed data rather than a priori. Mean, median, and 5. and 95. percentile trends are also compiled from the posterior probabilities. 2 - Method of solution: DORIAN carries out a Bayesian analysis of failure data and a prior distribution on a time-dependent failure rate to obtain a posterior distribution on the failure rate. The form of the time-dependent failure rate is arbitrary, because DORIAN approximates the form by a step-function, constant within specified time intervals. Similarly, the parameters may have any prior distribution, because DORIAN uses a discrete distribution to approximate this. Likewise, the database file produced by DORIAN approximates the entire range of possible failure rates or outage durations developed by means of a discrete probability distribution containing no more than 20 distinct values with their probabilities. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: Prior distribution is discrete with up to 25 values. Up to 60 times are accommodated in the discrete time history

  2. Reprodutibilidade de informações em estudo de fatores de risco para o diabetes mellitus insulino-dependente Reproducibility of information in a study of the risk factors for insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suely Godoy Agostinho Gimeno

    1997-10-01

    Full Text Available Examina-se, em uma subamostra de 38 casos e 38 controles de um estudo sobre os fatores de risco para o diabetes mellitus insulino-dependente, a reprodutibilidade de informações obtidas para as variáveis escolaridade da mãe e do pai, peso e comprimento da criança ao nascer, história de episódios graves de diarréia, tempo de aleitamento ao seio e idade da introdução de leite de vaca na alimentação infantil, selecionadas a partir do questionário padronizado utilizado em visita domiciliar. A repetição das perguntas foi feita por telefone. A concordância entre as respostas da primeira e segunda entrevista foi verificada mediante a utilização da estatística kappa (variáveis categóricas e do coeficiente de correlação intraclasse (variáveis quantitativas, para casos e controles separadamente. Os resultados levam a aceitar as informações como reprodutíveis.The reliability of information about mothers' and fathers' education, weight and height at birth, history of diarrhoea, duration of exclusive breast feeding and age of introduction of cows' milk products, selected from a structured questionnaire used in home interviewers was examined in a sample of 38 cases and 38 controls from a study related to the risk factors of insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus. The repetition of the questions was done by telephone. The agreement between the answers of both interviewers was verified using the kappa statistic (categorical variables and the intra-class correlation coefficient (quantitative variables. The results enable one to conclude that the information is reproducible.

  3. Quantitative risk assessment using the capacity-demand analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morgenroth, M.; Donnelly, C.R.; Westermann, G.D.; Huang, J.H.S.; Lam, T.M.

    1999-01-01

    The hydroelectric industry's recognition of the importance of avoiding unexpected failure, or forced outages, led to the development of probabilistic, or risk-based, methods in order to attempt to quantify exposures. Traditionally, such analysis has been carried out by qualitative assessments, relying on experience and sound engineering judgment to determine the optimum time to maintain, repair or replace a part or system. Depending on the nature of the problem, however, and the level of experience of those included in the decision making process, it is difficult to find a balance between acting proactively and accepting some amount of risk. The development of a practical means for establishing the probability of failure of any part or system, based on the determination of the statistical distribution of engineering properties such as acting stresses, is discussed. The capacity-demand analysis methodology, coupled with probablistic, risk-based analysis, permits all the factors associated with a decision to rehabilitate or replace a part, including the risks associated with the timing of the decision, to be assessed in a transparent and defendable manner. The methodology does not eliminate judgment altogether, but does move it from the level of estimating the risk of failure to the lower level of estimating variability in material properties, uncertainty in loading, and the uncertainties inherent in any engineering analysis. The method was successfully used in 1998 to carry out a comprehensive, economic risk analysis for the entire water conveyance system of a 90 year old hydropower station. The analysis included a number of diverse parts ranging from rock slopes and aging steel and concrete conduits, and the method allowed a rational assessment of the risks associated with reach of these varied parts to be determined, permitting the essential remedial works to be prioritized. 14 refs., 4 figs

  4. Analysis of economic feasibility of sale of surplus electricity in cogeneration: case study; Analise de viabilidade economica de venda de energia eletrica excedente em cogeracao: estudo de caso

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fodra, Marcelo [Universidade Estadual Paulista Julio de Mesquita Filho (FCA/UNESP), Botucatu, SP (Brazil). Fac. de Ciencias Agronomicas; Universidade Sagrado Coracao (USC), Bauru, SP (Brazil)], email: marcelo.fodra@fca.unesp.br; Esperancini, Maura Seiko Tsutsui [Universidade Estadual Paulista Julio de Mesquita Filho (FCA/UNESP), Botucatu, SP (Brazil). Fac. de Ciencias Agronomicas. Dept. de Gestao e Tecnologia Agroindustrial], email: maura@fca.unesp.br

    2010-07-01

    The production of energy in large quantity and at competitive prices is crucial for economic development, which allied to the environmental question, has incentivated the use of renewable sources of energy. One of the most promising sources of renewable energy is the cogeneration from the residues of cane. Currently, the scenario for this kind of energy production is not consolidated, as production prices are not stable, inducing a risky situation for the environment. This work was aimed to study the economic viability of installing a main site for cogeneration of electricity, in a regional sugarcane factory located in the central region of Sao Paulo state that currently uses residues of sugar cane as fuel. The risk factor that was taken into consideration was the price paid for the MWh sold to the Chamber of Commerce of Electricity. The Monte Carlo Method was used to assess the risk factors for the analysis, by using of New Present Value (NPV), in a scenario that uses 20% of the initial investment made by the energy dealer. After the simulations were finished, considering the conditions used in this work, the project tends to be not feasible, as the behavior of the prices of cogenerated MWh are not sufficient for paying the initial investment and the operational costs. (author)

  5. Risk-based configuration control system: Analysis and approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Lofgren, E.V.; Vesely, W.E.

    1990-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of risks associated with component outage configurations during power operation of a nuclear power plant and discusses approaches and strategies for developing a risk-based configuration control system. A configuration, as used here, is a set of component states. The objective of risk-based configuration control is to detect and control plant configurations using a risk-perspective. The configuration contributions to core-melt frequency and core-melt probability are studied for two plants. Large core-melt frequency can be caused by configurations and there are a number of such configurations that are not currently controlled by technical specifications. However, the expected frequency of occurrence of the impacting configurations is small and the actual core-melt probability contributions are also generally small. Effective strategies and criteria for controlling configuration risks are presented. Such control strategies take into consideration the risks associated with configurations, the nature and characteristics of the configuration risks, and also the practical considerations such as adequate repair times and/or options to transfer to low risk configurations. Alternative types of criteria are discussed that are not overly restrictive to result in unnecessary plant shutdown, but rather motivates effective test and maintenance practices that control risk-significant configurations to allow continued operation with an adequate margin to meet challenges to safety

  6. Risk-based configuration control system: Analysis and approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Vesely, W.E.; Kim, I.S.; Lofgren, E.V.

    1989-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of risks associated with component outage configurations during power operation of a nuclear power plant and discusses approaches and strategies for developing a risk-based configuration control system. A configuration, as used here, is a set of component states. The objective of risk-based configuration control is to detect and control plant configurations using a risk-perspective. The configuration contributions to core-melt frequency and core-melt probability are studied for two plants. Large core-melt frequency can be caused by configurations and there are a number of such configurations that are not currently controlled by technical specifications. However, the expected frequency of occurrence of the impacting configurations is small and the actual core-melt probability contributions are also generally small. Effective strategies and criteria for controlling configuration risks are presented. Such control strategies take into consideration the risks associated with configurations, the nature and characteristics of the configuration risks, and also the practical considerations such as adequate repair times and/or options to transfer to low risk configurations. Alternative types of criteria are discussed that are not overly restrictive to result in unnecessary plant shutdown, but rather motivates effective tests and maintenance practices that control; risk-significant configurations to allow continued operation with an adequate margin to meet challenges to safety. 3 refs., 7 figs., 2 tabs

  7. Explaining HIV Risk Multiplexity: A Social Network Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Felsher, Marisa; Koku, Emmanuel

    2018-04-21

    Risk multiplexity (i.e., overlap in drug-use, needle exchange and sexual relations) is a known risk factor for HIV. However, little is known about predictors of multiplexity. This study uses egocentric data from the Colorado Springs study to examine how individual, behavioral and social network factors influence engagement in multiplex risk behavior. Analyses revealed that compared to Whites, Hispanics were significantly more likely to engage in risk multiplexity and Blacks less so. Respondents who were similar to each other (e.g., in terms of race) had significantly higher odds of being in risk multiplex relationships, and respondents' risk perceptions and network size were significantly associated with engaging in multiplex risk behaviors. Findings from interaction analysis showed the effect of knowing someone with HIV on the odds of multiplexity depends partly on whether respondents' know their HIV status. Findings suggest that demographics, HIV behaviors and network factors impact engagement in multiplex risk behaviors, highlighting the need for multi-level interventions aimed at reducing HIV risk behavior.

  8. Tutorial: Parallel Computing of Simulation Models for Risk Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reilly, Allison C; Staid, Andrea; Gao, Michael; Guikema, Seth D

    2016-10-01

    Simulation models are widely used in risk analysis to study the effects of uncertainties on outcomes of interest in complex problems. Often, these models are computationally complex and time consuming to run. This latter point may be at odds with time-sensitive evaluations or may limit the number of parameters that are considered. In this article, we give an introductory tutorial focused on parallelizing simulation code to better leverage modern computing hardware, enabling risk analysts to better utilize simulation-based methods for quantifying uncertainty in practice. This article is aimed primarily at risk analysts who use simulation methods but do not yet utilize parallelization to decrease the computational burden of these models. The discussion is focused on conceptual aspects of embarrassingly parallel computer code and software considerations. Two complementary examples are shown using the languages MATLAB and R. A brief discussion of hardware considerations is located in the Appendix. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  9. Analysis of Blade Fragment Risk at a Wind Energy Facility

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Simms, David A [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Larwood, Scott [University of the Pacific

    2018-04-06

    An analysis was performed to determine the risk posed by wind turbine fragments on roads and buildings at the National Wind Technology Center at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The authors used a previously developed model of fragment trajectory and took into account the wind speed/direction distribution at the site and the probability of rotor failure. The risk was assessed by determining the likelihood of impact and related consequences. For both the roads and buildings, the risk varied from low to routine, which was considered acceptable. The analysis was compared with previous recommendations on wind turbine setback distances. The results showed that a setback to property lines of 2 times the overall turbine height would be acceptable. However, the setback to dwellings should probably be increased from 3 to 3.5 times the overall turbine height for an acceptable risk.

  10. ANALYSIS METHODS OF BANKRUPTCY RISK IN ROMANIAN ENERGY MINING INDUSTRY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CORICI MARIAN CATALIN

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The study is an analysis of bankruptcy risk and assessing the economic performance of the entity in charge of energy mining industry from southwest region. The scientific activity assesses the risk of bankruptcy using score’s method and some indicators witch reflecting the results obtained and elements from organization balance sheet involved in mining and energy which contributes to the stability of the national energy system. Analysis undertaken is focused on the application of the business organization models that allow a comprehensive assessment of the risk of bankruptcy and be an instrument of its forecast. In this study will be highlighted developments bankruptcy risk within the organization through the Altman model and Conan-Holder model in order to show a versatile image on the organization's ability to ensure business continuity

  11. Environmental Risk Assessment: Spatial Analysis of Chemical Hazards and Risks in South Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, H.; Heo, S.; Kim, M.; Lee, W. K.; Jong-Ryeul, S.

    2017-12-01

    This study identified chemical hazard and risk levels in Korea by analyzing the spatial distribution of chemical factories and accidents. The number of chemical factories and accidents in 5-km2 grids were used as the attribute value for spatial analysis. First, semi-variograms were conducted to examine spatial distribution patterns and to identify spatial autocorrelation of chemical factories and accidents. Semi-variograms explained that the spatial distribution of chemical factories and accidents were spatially autocorrelated. Second, the results of the semi-variograms were used in Ordinary Kriging to estimate chemical hazard and risk level. The level values were extracted from the Ordinary Kriging result and their spatial similarity was examined by juxtaposing the two values with respect to their location. Six peaks were identified in both the hazard and risk estimation result, and the peaks correlated with major cities in Korea. Third, the estimated hazard and risk levels were classified with geometrical interval and could be classified into four quadrants: Low Hazard and Low Risk (LHLR), Low Hazard and High Risk (LHHR), High Hazard and Low Risk (HHLR), and High Hazard and High Risk (HHHR). The 4 groups identified different chemical safety management issues in Korea; relatively safe LHLR group, many chemical reseller factories were found in HHLR group, chemical transportation accidents were in the LHHR group, and an abundance of factories and accidents were in the HHHR group. Each quadrant represented different safety management obstacles in Korea, and studying spatial differences can support the establishment of an efficient risk management plan.

  12. Dealing with uncertainty and pursuing superior technology options in risk management-The inherency risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helland, Aasgeir

    2009-01-01

    Current regulatory systems focus on the state of scientific evidence as the predominant factor for how to handle risks to human health and the environment. However, production and assessment of risk information are costly and time-consuming, and firms have an intrinsic disincentive to produce and distribute information about risks of their products as this could endanger their production opportunities and sales. An emphasis on more or better science may result in insufficient thought and attention going into the exploration of technology alternatives, and that risk management policies miss out on the possible achievement of a more favorable set of consequences. In this article, a method is proposed that combines risk assessment with the search for alternative technological options as a part of the risk management procedure. The method proposed is the inherency risk analysis where the first stage focuses on the original agent subject to investigation, the second stage focuses on identifying technological options whereas the third stage reviews the different alternatives, searching for the most attractive tradeoffs between costs and inherent safety. This is then used as a fundament for deciding which technology option to pursue. This method aims at providing a solution-focused, systematic technology-based approach for addressing and setting priorities for environmental problems. By combining risk assessment with a structured approach to identify superior technology options within a risk management system, the result could very well be a win-win situation for both company and the environment.

  13. Hierarchical Modelling of Flood Risk for Engineering Decision Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Custer, Rocco

    protection structures in the hierarchical flood protection system - is identified. To optimise the design of protection structures, fragility and vulnerability models must allow for consideration of decision alternatives. While such vulnerability models are available for large protection structures (e...... systems, as well as the implementation of the flood risk analysis methodology and the vulnerability modelling approach are illustrated with an example application. In summary, the present thesis provides a characterisation of hierarchical flood protection systems as well as several methodologies to model...... and robust. Traditional risk management solutions, e.g. dike construction, are not particularly flexible, as they are difficult to adapt to changing risk. Conversely, the recent concept of integrated flood risk management, entailing a combination of several structural and non-structural risk management...

  14. Surplus analysis of Sparre Andersen insurance risk processes

    CERN Document Server

    Willmot, Gordon E

    2017-01-01

    This carefully written monograph covers the Sparre Andersen process in an actuarial context using the renewal process as the model for claim counts. A unified reference on Sparre Andersen (renewal risk) processes is included, often missing from existing literature. The authors explore recent results and analyse various risk theoretic quantities associated with the event of ruin, including the time of ruin and the deficit of ruin. Particular attention is given to the explicit identification of defective renewal equation components, which are needed to analyse various risk theoretic quantities and are also relevant in other subject areas of applied probability such as dams and storage processes, as well as queuing theory. Aimed at researchers interested in risk/ruin theory and related areas, this work will also appeal to graduate students in classical and modern risk theory and Gerber-Shiu analysis.

  15. Hierarchic Analysis Method to Evaluate Rock Burst Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming Ji

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to reasonably evaluate the risk of rock bursts in mines, the factors impacting rock bursts and the existing grading criterion on the risk of rock bursts were studied. By building a model of hierarchic analysis method, the natural factors, technology factors, and management factors that influence rock bursts were analyzed and researched, which determined the degree of each factor’s influence (i.e., weight and comprehensive index. Then the grade of rock burst risk was assessed. The results showed that the assessment level generated by the model accurately reflected the actual risk degree of rock bursts in mines. The model improved the maneuverability and practicability of existing evaluation criteria and also enhanced the accuracy and science of rock burst risk assessment.

  16. Case studies: Risk-based analysis of technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wagner, D.P.; Minton, L.A.; Gaertner, J.P.

    1987-01-01

    The SOCRATES computer program uses the results of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) or a system level risk analysis to calculate changes in risk due to changes in the surveillance test interval and/or the allowed outage time stated in the technical specification. The computer program can accommodate various testing strategies (such as staggered or simultaneous testing) to allow modeling of component testing as it is carried out at a plant. The methods and computer program are an integral part of a larger decision process aimed at determining benefits from technical specification changes. These benefits can include cost savings to the utilities by reducing forced shutdowns with no adverse impacts on risk. Three summaries of case study applications are included to demonstrate the types of results that can be achieved through risk-based evaluation of technical specifications. (orig.)

  17. Risk factor analysis of equine strongyle resistance to anthelmintics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Sallé

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Intestinal strongyles are the most problematic endoparasites of equids as a result of their wide distribution and the spread of resistant isolates throughout the world. While abundant literature can be found on the extent of anthelmintic resistance across continents, empirical knowledge about associated risk factors is missing. This study brought together results from anthelmintic efficacy testing and risk factor analysis to provide evidence-based guidelines in the field. It involved 688 horses from 39 French horse farms and riding schools to both estimate Faecal Egg Count Reduction (FECR after anthelmintic treatment and to interview farm and riding school managers about their practices. Risk factors associated with reduced anthelmintic efficacy in equine strongyles were estimated across drugs using a marginal modelling approach. Results demonstrated ivermectin efficacy (96.3% ± 14.5% FECR, the inefficacy of fenbendazole (42.8% ± 33.4% FECR and an intermediate profile for pyrantel (90.3% ± 19.6% FECR. Risk factor analysis provided support to advocate for FEC-based treatment regimens combined with individual anthelmintic dosage and the enforcement of tighter biosecurity around horse introduction. The combination of these measures resulted in a decreased risk of drug resistance (relative risk of 0.57, p = 0.02. Premises falling under this typology also relied more on their veterinarians suggesting practitionners play an important role in the sustainability of anthelmintic usage. Similarly, drug resistance risk was halved in premises with frequent pasture rotation and with stocking rate below five horses/ha (relative risk of 0.53, p < 0.01. This is the first empirical risk factor analysis for anthelmintic resistance in equids. Our findings should guide the implementation of more sustained strongyle management in the field. Keywords: Horse, Nematode, Anthelmintic resistance, Strongyle, Cyathostomin

  18. Advanced uncertainty modelling for container port risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alyami, Hani; Yang, Zaili; Riahi, Ramin; Bonsall, Stephen; Wang, Jin

    2016-08-13

    Globalization has led to a rapid increase of container movements in seaports. Risks in seaports need to be appropriately addressed to ensure economic wealth, operational efficiency, and personnel safety. As a result, the safety performance of a Container Terminal Operational System (CTOS) plays a growing role in improving the efficiency of international trade. This paper proposes a novel method to facilitate the application of Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) in assessing the safety performance of CTOS. The new approach is developed through incorporating a Fuzzy Rule-Based Bayesian Network (FRBN) with Evidential Reasoning (ER) in a complementary manner. The former provides a realistic and flexible method to describe input failure information for risk estimates of individual hazardous events (HEs) at the bottom level of a risk analysis hierarchy. The latter is used to aggregate HEs safety estimates collectively, allowing dynamic risk-based decision support in CTOS from a systematic perspective. The novel feature of the proposed method, compared to those in traditional port risk analysis lies in a dynamic model capable of dealing with continually changing operational conditions in ports. More importantly, a new sensitivity analysis method is developed and carried out to rank the HEs by taking into account their specific risk estimations (locally) and their Risk Influence (RI) to a port's safety system (globally). Due to its generality, the new approach can be tailored for a wide range of applications in different safety and reliability engineering and management systems, particularly when real time risk ranking is required to measure, predict, and improve the associated system safety performance. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Multi-hazard risk analysis for management strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kappes, M.; Keiler, M.; Bell, R.; Glade, T.

    2009-04-01

    Risk management is very often operating in a reactive way, responding to an event, instead of proactive starting with risk analysis and building up the whole process of risk evaluation, prevention, event management and regeneration. Since damage and losses from natural hazards raise continuously more and more studies, concepts (e.g. Switzerland or South Tyrol-Bolozano) and software packages (e.g. ARMAGEDOM, HAZUS or RiskScape) are developed to guide, standardize and facilitate the risk analysis. But these approaches focus on different aspects and are mostly closely adapted to the situation (legislation, organization of the administration, specific processes etc.) of the specific country or region. We propose in this study the development of a flexible methodology for multi-hazard risk analysis, identifying the stakeholders and their needs, processes and their characteristics, modeling approaches as well as incoherencies occurring by combining all these different aspects. Based on this concept a flexible software package will be established consisting of ArcGIS as central base and being complemented by various modules for hazard modeling, vulnerability assessment and risk calculation. Not all modules will be developed newly but taken from the current state-of-the-art and connected or integrated into ArcGIS. For this purpose two study sites, Valtellina in Italy and Bacelonnette in France, were chosen and the hazards types debris flows, rockfalls, landslides, avalanches and floods are planned to be included in the tool for a regional multi-hazard risk analysis. Since the central idea of this tool is its flexibility this will only be a first step, in the future further processes and scales can be included and the instrument thus adapted to any study site.

  20. RISK LEVEL ANALYSIS ON THE PREVENTIVE EROSION CAPACITY OF BRIDGES

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    Deficiency of the Preventive Erosion Capacity (PEC) of a bridge pier is the main factor leading to bridge failures. In this paper, the PEC of bridge piers was analyzed using the stochastic analysis method. The definitions of the reliability and risk level of a bridge pier subjected to water erosion were proposed and a computational model for erosion depth and risk level in was suggested.

  1. Chronic wasting disease risk analysis workshop: An integrative approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gillette, Shana; Dein, Joshua; Salman, Mo; Richards, Bryan; Duarte, Paulo

    2004-01-01

    Risk analysis tools have been successfully used to determine the potential hazard associated with disease introductions and have facilitated management decisions designed to limit the potential for disease introduction. Chronic Wasting Disease (CWD) poses significant challenges for resource managers due to an incomplete understanding of disease etiology and epidemiology and the complexity of management and political jurisdictions. Tools designed specifically to assess the risk of CWD introduction would be of great value to policy makers in areas where CWD has not been detected.

  2. State of the art in benefit-risk analysis: introduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verhagen, H; Tijhuis, M J; Gunnlaugsdóttir, H; Kalogeras, N; Leino, O; Luteijn, J M; Magnússon, S H; Odekerken, G; Pohjola, M V; Tuomisto, J T; Ueland, Ø; White, B C; Holm, F

    2012-01-01

    Risk-taking is normal in everyday life if there are associated (perceived) benefits. Benefit-Risk Analysis (BRA) compares the risk of a situation to its related benefits and addresses the acceptability of the risk. Over the past years BRA in relation to food and food ingredients has gained attention. Food, and even the same food ingredient, may confer both beneficial and adverse effects. Measures directed at food safety may lead to suboptimal or insufficient levels of ingredients from a benefit perspective. In BRA, benefits and risks of food (ingredients) are assessed in one go and may conditionally be expressed into one currency. This allows the comparison of adverse and beneficial effects to be qualitative and quantitative. A BRA should help policy-makers to make more informed and balanced benefit-risk management decisions. Not allowing food benefits to occur in order to guarantee food safety is a risk management decision much the same as accepting some risk in order to achieve more benefits. BRA in food and nutrition is making progress, but difficulties remain. The field may benefit from looking across its borders to learn from other research areas. The BEPRARIBEAN project (Best Practices for Risk-Benefit Analysis: experience from out of food into food; http://en.opasnet.org/w/Bepraribean) aims to do so, by working together with Medicines, Food Microbiology, Environmental Health, Economics & Marketing-Finance and Consumer Perception. All perspectives are reviewed and subsequently integrated to identify opportunities for further development of BRA for food and food ingredients. Interesting issues that emerge are the varying degrees of risk that are deemed acceptable within the areas and the trend towards more open and participatory BRA processes. A set of 6 'state of the art' papers covering the above areas and a paper integrating the separate (re)views are published in this volume. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Automated procedure for performing computer security risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, S.T.; Lim, J.J.

    1984-05-01

    Computers, the invisible backbone of nuclear safeguards, monitor and control plant operations and support many materials accounting systems. Our automated procedure to assess computer security effectiveness differs from traditional risk analysis methods. The system is modeled as an interactive questionnaire, fully automated on a portable microcomputer. A set of modular event trees links the questionnaire to the risk assessment. Qualitative scores are obtained for target vulnerability, and qualitative impact measures are evaluated for a spectrum of threat-target pairs. These are then combined by a linguistic algebra to provide an accurate and meaningful risk measure. 12 references, 7 figures

  4. Risk Analysis and Decision Making FY 2013 Milestone Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.; Dale, Crystal; Jones, Edward; Thompson, J.

    2013-06-01

    Risk analysis and decision making is one of the critical objectives of CCSI, which seeks to use information from science-based models with quantified uncertainty to inform decision makers who are making large capital investments. The goal of this task is to develop tools and capabilities to facilitate the development of risk models tailored for carbon capture technologies, quantify the uncertainty of model predictions, and estimate the technical and financial risks associated with the system. This effort aims to reduce costs by identifying smarter demonstrations, which could accelerate development and deployment of the technology by several years.

  5. Analysis of interactions among barriers in project risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dandage, Rahul V.; Mantha, Shankar S.; Rane, Santosh B.; Bhoola, Vanita

    2018-03-01

    In the context of the scope, time, cost, and quality constraints, failure is not uncommon in project management. While small projects have 70% chances of success, large projects virtually have no chance of meeting the quadruple constraints. While there is no dearth of research on project risk management, the manifestation of barriers to project risk management is a less dwelt topic. The success of project management is oftentimes based on the understanding of barriers to effective risk management, application of appropriate risk management methodology, proactive leadership to avoid barriers, workers' attitude, adequate resources, organizational culture, and involvement of top management. This paper represents various risk categories and barriers to risk management in domestic and international projects through literature survey and feedback from project professionals. After analysing the various modelling methods used in project risk management literature, interpretive structural modelling (ISM) and MICMAC analysis have been used to analyse interactions among the barriers and prioritize them. The analysis indicates that lack of top management support, lack of formal training, and lack of addressing cultural differences are the high priority barriers, among many others.

  6. Gambler Risk Perception: A Mental Model and Grounded Theory Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spurrier, Michael; Blaszczynski, Alexander; Rhodes, Paul

    2015-09-01

    Few studies have investigated how gamblers perceive risk or the role of risk perception in disordered gambling. The purpose of the current study therefore was to obtain data on lay gamblers' beliefs on these variables and their effects on decision-making, behaviour, and disordered gambling aetiology. Fifteen regular lay gamblers (non-problem/low risk, moderate risk and problem gamblers) completed a semi-structured interview following mental models and grounded theory methodologies. Gambler interview data was compared to an expert 'map' of risk-perception, to identify comparative gaps or differences associated with harmful or safe gambling. Systematic overlapping processes of data gathering and analysis were used to iteratively extend, saturate, test for exception, and verify concepts and themes emerging from the data. The preliminary findings suggested that gambler accounts supported the presence of expert conceptual constructs, and to some degree the role of risk perception in protecting against or increasing vulnerability to harm and disordered gambling. Gambler accounts of causality, meaning, motivation, and strategy were highly idiosyncratic, and often contained content inconsistent with measures of disordered gambling. Disordered gambling appears heavily influenced by relative underestimation of risk and overvaluation of gambling, based on explicit and implicit analysis, and deliberate, innate, contextual, and learned processing evaluations and biases.

  7. Dietary patterns and depression risk: A meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ye; Lv, Mei-Rong; Wei, Yan-Jin; Sun, Ling; Zhang, Ji-Xiang; Zhang, Huai-Guo; Li, Bin

    2017-07-01

    Although some studies have reported potential associations of dietary patterns with depression risk, a consistent perspective hasn't been estimated to date. Therefore, we conducted this meta-analysis to evaluate the relation between dietary patterns and the risk of depression. A literature research was conducted searching MEDLINE and EMBASE databases up to September 2016. In total, 21 studies from ten countries met the inclusion criteria and were included in the present meta-analysis. A dietary pattern characterized by a high intakes of fruit, vegetables, whole grain, fish, olive oil, low-fat dairy and antioxidants and low intakes of animal foods was apparently associated with a decreased risk of depression. A dietary pattern characterized by a high consumption of red and/or processed meat, refined grains, sweets, high-fat dairy products, butter, potatoes and high-fat gravy, and low intakes of fruits and vegetables is associated with an increased risk of depression. The results of this meta-analysis suggest that healthy pattern may decrease the risk of depression, whereas western-style may increase the risk of depression. However, more randomized controlled trails and cohort studies are urgently required to confirm this findings. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Is adaptation or transformation needed? Active nanomaterials and risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuzma, Jennifer; Roberts, John Patrick

    2016-01-01

    Nanotechnology has been a key area of funding and policy for the United States and globally for the past two decades. Since nanotechnology research and development became a focus and nanoproducts began to permeate the market, scholars and scientists have been concerned about how to assess the risks that they may pose to human health and the environment. The newest generation of nanomaterials includes biomolecules that can respond to and influence their environments, and there is a need to explore whether and how existing risk-analysis frameworks are challenged by such novelty. To fill this niche, we used a modified approach of upstream oversight assessment (UOA), a subset of anticipatory governance. We first selected case studies of “active nanomaterials,” that are early in research and development and designed for use in multiple sectors, and then considered them under several, key risk-analysis frameworks. We found two ways in which the cases challenge the frameworks. The first category relates to how to assess risk under a narrow framing of the term (direct health and environmental harm), and the second involves the definition of what constitutes a “risk” worthy of assessment and consideration in decision making. In light of these challenges, we propose some changes for risk analysis in the face of active nanostructures in order to improve risk governance.

  9. Is adaptation or transformation needed? Active nanomaterials and risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kuzma, Jennifer, E-mail: jkuzma@ncsu.edu [North Carolina State University, School of Public and International Affairs and Genetic Engineering and Society Center (United States); Roberts, John Patrick [North Carolina State University, School of Public and International Affairs (United States)

    2016-07-15

    Nanotechnology has been a key area of funding and policy for the United States and globally for the past two decades. Since nanotechnology research and development became a focus and nanoproducts began to permeate the market, scholars and scientists have been concerned about how to assess the risks that they may pose to human health and the environment. The newest generation of nanomaterials includes biomolecules that can respond to and influence their environments, and there is a need to explore whether and how existing risk-analysis frameworks are challenged by such novelty. To fill this niche, we used a modified approach of upstream oversight assessment (UOA), a subset of anticipatory governance. We first selected case studies of “active nanomaterials,” that are early in research and development and designed for use in multiple sectors, and then considered them under several, key risk-analysis frameworks. We found two ways in which the cases challenge the frameworks. The first category relates to how to assess risk under a narrow framing of the term (direct health and environmental harm), and the second involves the definition of what constitutes a “risk” worthy of assessment and consideration in decision making. In light of these challenges, we propose some changes for risk analysis in the face of active nanostructures in order to improve risk governance.

  10. Benefit-Risk Analysis for Decision-Making: An Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raju, G K; Gurumurthi, K; Domike, R

    2016-12-01

    The analysis of benefit and risk is an important aspect of decision-making throughout the drug lifecycle. In this work, the use of a benefit-risk analysis approach to support decision-making was explored. The proposed approach builds on the qualitative US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approach to include a more explicit analysis based on international standards and guidance that enables aggregation and comparison of benefit and risk on a common basis and a lifecycle focus. The approach is demonstrated on six decisions over the lifecycle (e.g., accelerated approval, withdrawal, and traditional approval) using two case studies: natalizumab for multiple sclerosis (MS) and bedaquiline for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB). © 2016 American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

  11. Flood risk analysis procedure for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wagner, D.P.

    1982-01-01

    This paper describes a methodology and procedure for determining the impact of floods on nuclear power plant risk. The procedures are based on techniques of fault tree and event tree analysis and use the logic of these techniques to determine the effects of a flood on system failure probability and accident sequence occurrence frequency. The methodology can be applied independently or as an add-on analysis for an existing risk assessment. Each stage of the analysis yields useful results such as the critical flood level, failure flood level, and the flood's contribution to accident sequence occurrence frequency. The results of applications show the effects of floods on the risk from nuclear power plants analyzed in the Reactor Safety Study

  12. System risk evolution analysis and risk critical event identification based on event sequence diagram

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luo, Pengcheng; Hu, Yang

    2013-01-01

    During system operation, the environmental, operational and usage conditions are time-varying, which causes the fluctuations of the system state variables (SSVs). These fluctuations change the accidents’ probabilities and then result in the system risk evolution (SRE). This inherent relation makes it feasible to realize risk control by monitoring the SSVs in real time, herein, the quantitative analysis of SRE is essential. Besides, some events in the process of SRE are critical to system risk, because they act like the “demarcative points” of safety and accident, and this characteristic makes each of them a key point of risk control. Therefore, analysis of SRE and identification of risk critical events (RCEs) are remarkably meaningful to ensure the system to operate safely. In this context, an event sequence diagram (ESD) based method of SRE analysis and the related Monte Carlo solution are presented; RCE and risk sensitive variable (RSV) are defined, and the corresponding identification methods are also proposed. Finally, the proposed approaches are exemplified with an accident scenario of an aircraft getting into the icing region

  13. Dietary patterns and colorectal cancer risk: a meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Yu-Liang; Shu, Long; Zheng, Pei-Fen; Zhang, Xiao-Yan; Si, Cai-Juan; Yu, Xiao-Long; Gao, Wei; Zhang, Lun

    2017-05-01

    The analysis of dietary patterns has recently drawn considerable attention as a method of investigating the association between the overall whole diet and the risk of colorectal cancer. However, the results have yielded conflicting findings. Here, we carried out a meta-analysis to identify the association between dietary patterns and the risk of colorectal cancer. A total of 40 studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria and were included in this meta-analysis. The highest category of 'healthy' dietary pattern compared with the lowest category was apparently associated with a decreased risk for colorectal cancer [odds ratio (OR)=0.75; confidence interval (CI): 0.68-0.83; Pcolorectal cancer was shown for the highest compared with the lowest category of a 'western-style' dietary pattern (OR=1.40; CI: 1.26-1.56; Pcolorectal cancer in the highest compared with the lowest category of 'alcohol-consumption' pattern (OR=1.44; CI: 1.13-1.82; P=0.003). The results of this meta-analysis indicate that a 'healthy' dietary pattern may decrease the risk of colorectal cancer, whereas 'western-style' and 'alcohol-consumption' patterns may increase the risk of colorectal cancer.

  14. Comportamentos de risco ao HIV em utilizadores de heroína em um distrito português: estudo qualitativo HIV risk behaviors in heroin users in a Portuguese district: a qualitative study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vanessa Fabiane Machado Gomes Marsden

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available OBJETIVO: Explorar relatos de utilizadores de heroína sobre seus comportamentos de risco para transmissão do vírus da imunodeficiência humana (HIV no distrito de Vila Real, Portugal, já que a heroína é a droga predominante no que se refere ao uso problemático de drogas em Portugal, e 48% de todas as notificações de infecção por HIV no país são associadas à dependência de drogas. MÉTODO: Utilizadores de heroína recebendo tratamento ambulatorial para dependência em clínica pública foram selecionados aleatoriamente e convidados a participar do estudo. A coleta de dados foi realizada através de entrevista qualitativa semiestruturada, desenvolvida para explorar os relatos dos participantes sobre seu comportamento de risco associado ao uso de heroína. RESULTADOS: Vinte e cinco entrevistas foram realizadas. A idade média foi de 32 anos, e 92% eram homens. Os participantes relataram um tempo médio de uso de heroína de 14,7 anos, e 64% deles mencionaram uso diário da droga. Dois terços relataram uso de heroína e 16% referiram uso intravenoso da droga nos 30 dias anteriores à entrevista. 75% referiram compartilhamento de seringas ou parafernália de injeção. Front-loading ou back-loading foram técnicas comuns e não reconhecidas como comportamento de risco. 84% referiram ter sido testados anteriormente para o HIV. CONCLUSÕES: O desenvolvimento de melhores programas de prevenção ao HIV para este grupo de risco é essencial através do uso de informações sobre movimentos demográficos e padrões de comportamento de utilizadores de heroína, abordando seus comportamentos de risco nas práticas sexuais e no compartilhamento de parafernália de injeção.OBJECTIVE: To explore heroin users' accounts of risk behavior in relation to the transmission of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV in the district of Vila Real, northern Portugal, since heroin is the predominant drug in problematic drug use in Portugal and 48% of the total

  15. General overview and perspectives of risk analysis in Cuba

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Torres, A.; Rodriguez, J.M.; Vilaragut, J.J.; Valhuerdi, C.

    1995-01-01

    This papers shows a general overview of the application of risk analysis techniques in some potentially dangerous industries in Cuba. This paper summarizes the experiences of these sectors in the risk analysis with different specification levels and different approaches. Some experiences in the application of these analyses in the nuclear and aeronautical industries are shown. Some analyses of consequences in cases of accidents in the chemical industries in order to work due and improve emergency plans for responding to accident situations are presented in a more succinct manner. Also the perspectives to develop some of these tendencies and cooperation forms between them are summarized

  16. Tuberculose infantil: estudo retrospectivo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boaventura Antonio dos Santos

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Introdução: A tuberculose (TB infantil permanece como uma das doenças mais prevalentes e preocupantes no mundo, sobretudo em nações em desenvolvimento, onde as taxas são ainda mais elevadas e os casos descritos subestimados pela dificuldade em se estabelecer um diagnóstico definitivo. Dessa forma, este estudo tem como objetivo descrever o perfil clínico e epidemiológico dos pacientes com TB infantil pulmonar e extrapulmonar. Métodos: Foram avaliados retrospectivamente, através de questionário, pacientes com idade de até 15 anos, internados no Serviço de Pediatria do HCPA, no período de janeiro de 2002 a setembro de 2007.   Resultados: Dos 52 pacientes incluídos, 63% apresentavam TB pulmonar. Das formas extra-pulmonares, a meningoencefalite foi a mais prevalente (22%. Comorbidades foram dectadas em 31 (60% pacientes, dos quais 15 (29% apresentavam desnutrição grave, 9 (18% HIV positivo e 7 (13% pneumopatia crônica. Das manifestações clínicas, febre e tosse estavam presentes na maioria dos pacientes. O padrão radiológico predominante foi o de consolidação pulmonar (51%. A maioria dos pacientes referia história de contato com paciente bacilífero (64%. Conclusão: A TB pulmonar representa a principal forma de apresentação clínica da TB, sendo o diagnóstico feito de forma presuntiva na maioria dos casos. O diagnóstico baseado na comprovação bacteriológica foi obtido numa minoria de pacientes, demonstrando a importância dos achados clínico-laboratoriais, história epidemiológica e vacinal para o diagnóstico. Nesse sentido, a criação de escores tem se tornado uma ferramenta de fácil acesso e com razoável acurácia para auxiliar o diagnóstico de TB em serviços de baixa complexidade, especialmente o ambulatorial.

  17. Cardiometabolic risk in Canada: a detailed analysis and position paper by the cardiometabolic risk working group.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leiter, Lawrence A; Fitchett, David H; Gilbert, Richard E; Gupta, Milan; Mancini, G B John; McFarlane, Philip A; Ross, Robert; Teoh, Hwee; Verma, Subodh; Anand, Sonia; Camelon, Kathryn; Chow, Chi-Ming; Cox, Jafna L; Després, Jean-Pierre; Genest, Jacques; Harris, Stewart B; Lau, David C W; Lewanczuk, Richard; Liu, Peter P; Lonn, Eva M; McPherson, Ruth; Poirier, Paul; Qaadri, Shafiq; Rabasa-Lhoret, Rémi; Rabkin, Simon W; Sharma, Arya M; Steele, Andrew W; Stone, James A; Tardif, Jean-Claude; Tobe, Sheldon; Ur, Ehud

    2011-01-01

    The concepts of "cardiometabolic risk," "metabolic syndrome," and "risk stratification" overlap and relate to the atherogenic process and development of type 2 diabetes. There is confusion about what these terms mean and how they can best be used to improve our understanding of cardiovascular disease treatment and prevention. With the objectives of clarifying these concepts and presenting practical strategies to identify and reduce cardiovascular risk in multiethnic patient populations, the Cardiometabolic Working Group reviewed the evidence related to emerging cardiovascular risk factors and Canadian guideline recommendations in order to present a detailed analysis and consolidated approach to the identification and management of cardiometabolic risk. The concepts related to cardiometabolic risk, pathophysiology, and strategies for identification and management (including health behaviours, pharmacotherapy, and surgery) in the multiethnic Canadian population are presented. "Global cardiometabolic risk" is proposed as an umbrella term for a comprehensive list of existing and emerging factors that predict cardiovascular disease and/or type 2 diabetes. Health behaviour interventions (weight loss, physical activity, diet, smoking cessation) in people identified at high cardiometabolic risk are of critical importance given the emerging crisis of obesity and the consequent epidemic of type 2 diabetes. Vascular protective measures (health behaviours for all patients and pharmacotherapy in appropriate patients) are essential to reduce cardiometabolic risk, and there is growing consensus that a multidisciplinary approach is needed to adequately address cardiometabolic risk factors. Health care professionals must also consider risk factors related to ethnicity in order to appropriately evaluate everyone in their diverse patient populations. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Analysis of risk factors and risk assessment for ischemic stroke recurrence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiu-ying LONG

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Objective To screen the risk factors for recurrence of ischemic stroke and to assess the risk of recurrence. Methods Essen Stroke Risk Score (ESRS was used to evaluate the risk of recurrence in 176 patients with ischemic stroke (96 cases of first onset and 80 cases of recurrence. Univariate and multivariate stepwise Logistic regression analysis was used to screen risk factors for recurrence of ischemic stroke.  Results There were significant differences between first onset group and recurrence group on age, the proportion of > 75 years old, hypertension, diabetes, coronary heart disease, peripheral angiopathy, transient ischemic attack (TIA or ischemic stroke, drinking and ESRS score (P < 0.05, for all. First onset group included one case of ESRS 0 (1.04%, 8 cases of 1 (8.33%, 39 cases of 2 (40.63%, 44 cases of 3 (45.83%, 4 cases of 4 (4.17%. Recurrence group included 2 cases of ESRS 3 (2.50%, 20 cases of 4 (25% , 37 cases of 5 (46.25% , 18 cases of 6 (22.50% , 3 cases of 7 (3.75% . There was significant difference between 2 groups (Z = -11.376, P = 0.000. Logistic regression analysis showed ESRS > 3 score was independent risk factor for recurrence of ischemic stroke (OR = 31.324, 95%CI: 3.934-249.430; P = 0.001.  Conclusions ESRS > 3 score is the independent risk factor for recurrence of ischemic stroke. It is important to strengthen risk assessment of recurrence of ischemic stroke. To screen and control risk factors is the key to secondary prevention of ischemic stroke. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1672-6731.2016.07.011

  19. The prostate cancer risk stratification (ProCaRS) project: Recursive partitioning risk stratification analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodrigues, George; Lukka, Himu; Warde, Padraig; Brundage, Michael; Souhami, Luis; Crook, Juanita; Cury, Fabio; Catton, Charles; Mok, Gary; Martin, Andre-Guy; Vigneault, Eric; Morris, Jim; Warner, Andrew; Gonzalez Maldonado, Sandra; Pickles, Tom

    2013-01-01

    Background: The Genitourinary Radiation Oncologists of Canada (GUROC) published a three-group risk stratification (RS) system to assist prostate cancer decision-making in 2001. The objective of this project is to use the ProCaRS database to statistically model the predictive accuracy and clinical utility of a proposed new multi-group RS schema. Methods: The RS analyses utilized the ProCaRS database that consists of 7974 patients from four Canadian institutions. Recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) was utilized to explore the sub-stratification of groups defined by the existing three-group GUROC scheme. 10-fold cross-validated C-indices and the Net Reclassification Index were both used to assess multivariable models and compare the predictive accuracy of existing and proposed RS systems, respectively. Results: The recursive partitioning analysis has suggested that the existing GUROC classification system could be altered to accommodate as many as six separate and statistical unique groups based on differences in BFFS (C-index 0.67 and AUC 0.70). GUROC low-risk patients would be divided into new favorable-low and low-risk groups based on PSA ⩽6 and PSA >6. GUROC intermediate-risk patients can be subclassified into low-intermediate and high-intermediate groups. GUROC high-intermediate-risk is defined as existing GUROC intermediate-risk with PSA >=10 AND either T2b/c disease or T1T2a disease with Gleason 7. GUROC high-risk patients would be subclassified into an additional extreme-risk group (GUROC high-risk AND (positive cores ⩾87.5% OR PSA >30). Conclusions: Proposed RS subcategories have been identified by a RPA of the ProCaRS database

  20. [Competitive karate and the risk of HIV infection--review, risk analysis and risk minimizing strategies].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller-Rath, R; Mumme, T; Miltner, O; Skobel, E

    2004-03-01

    Bleeding facial injuries are not uncommon in competitive karate. Nevertheless, the risk of an infection with HIV is extremely low. Guidelines about the prevention of HIV infections are presented. Especially in contact sports and martial arts the athletes, judges and staff have to recognize and employ these recommendations. Bleeding wounds of the hands due to contact with the opponents teeth can be minimized by fist padding.

  1. Risk analysis by FMEA as an element of analytical validation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Leeuwen, J F; Nauta, M J; de Kaste, D; Odekerken-Rombouts, Y M C F; Oldenhof, M T; Vredenbregt, M J; Barends, D M

    2009-12-05

    We subjected a Near-Infrared (NIR) analytical procedure used for screening drugs on authenticity to a Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA), including technical risks as well as risks related to human failure. An FMEA team broke down the NIR analytical method into process steps and identified possible failure modes for each step. Each failure mode was ranked on estimated frequency of occurrence (O), probability that the failure would remain undetected later in the process (D) and severity (S), each on a scale of 1-10. Human errors turned out to be the most common cause of failure modes. Failure risks were calculated by Risk Priority Numbers (RPNs)=O x D x S. Failure modes with the highest RPN scores were subjected to corrective actions and the FMEA was repeated, showing reductions in RPN scores and resulting in improvement indices up to 5.0. We recommend risk analysis as an addition to the usual analytical validation, as the FMEA enabled us to detect previously unidentified risks.

  2. A Big Data Analysis Approach for Rail Failure Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamshidi, Ali; Faghih-Roohi, Shahrzad; Hajizadeh, Siamak; Núñez, Alfredo; Babuska, Robert; Dollevoet, Rolf; Li, Zili; De Schutter, Bart

    2017-08-01

    Railway infrastructure monitoring is a vital task to ensure rail transportation safety. A rail failure could result in not only a considerable impact on train delays and maintenance costs, but also on safety of passengers. In this article, the aim is to assess the risk of a rail failure by analyzing a type of rail surface defect called squats that are detected automatically among the huge number of records from video cameras. We propose an image processing approach for automatic detection of squats, especially severe types that are prone to rail breaks. We measure the visual length of the squats and use them to model the failure risk. For the assessment of the rail failure risk, we estimate the probability of rail failure based on the growth of squats. Moreover, we perform severity and crack growth analyses to consider the impact of rail traffic loads on defects in three different growth scenarios. The failure risk estimations are provided for several samples of squats with different crack growth lengths on a busy rail track of the Dutch railway network. The results illustrate the practicality and efficiency of the proposed approach. © 2017 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

  3. Rocky Flats Plant Live-Fire Range Risk Analysis Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nicolosi, S.L.; Rodriguez, M.A.

    1994-04-01

    The objective of the Live-Fire Range Risk Analysis Report (RAR) is to provide an authorization basis for operation as required by DOE 5480.16. The existing Live-Fire Range does not have a safety analysis-related authorization basis. EG&G Rocky Flats, Inc. has worked with DOE and its representatives to develop a format and content description for development of an RAR for the Live-Fire Range. Development of the RAR is closely aligned with development of the design for a baffle system to control risks from errant projectiles. DOE 5480.16 requires either an RAR or a safety analysis report (SAR) for live-fire ranges. An RAR rather than a SAR was selected in order to gain flexibility to more closely address the safety analysis and conduct of operation needs for a live-fire range in a cost-effective manner.

  4. Quantitative risk analysis of a space shuttle subsystem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frank, M.V.

    1989-01-01

    This paper reports that in an attempt to investigate methods for risk management other than qualitative analysis techniques, NASA has funded pilot study quantitative risk analyses for space shuttle subsystems. The authors performed one such study of two shuttle subsystems with McDonnell Douglas Astronautics Company. The subsystems were the auxiliary power units (APU) on the orbiter, and the hydraulic power units on the solid rocket booster. The technology and results of the APU study are presented in this paper. Drawing from a rich in-flight database as well as from a wealth of tests and analyses, the study quantitatively assessed the risk of APU-initiated scenarios on the shuttle during all phases of a flight mission. Damage states of interest were loss of crew/vehicle, aborted mission, and launch scrub. A quantitative risk analysis approach to deciding on important items for risk management was contrasted with the current NASA failure mode and effects analysis/critical item list approach

  5. Lung cancer risk in painters: a meta-analysis Risco de câncer de pulmão em pintores: uma meta-análise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neela Guha

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available We conducted a meta-analysis to quantitatively compare the association between occupation as a painter and the incidence or mortality from lung cancer. PubMed and the reference lists of pertinent publications were searched and reviewed. For the meta-analysis, we used data from 47 independent cohort, record linkage, and case-control studies (from a total of 74 reports, including > 11,000 incident cases or deaths from lung cancer among painters. Three authors independently abstracted data and assessed study quality. The summary relative risk (meta-RR, random effects for lung cancer in paint-ers was 1.35 [95% confidence interval (CI, 1.29-1.41; 47 studies] and 1.35 (95% CI, 1.21-1.51; 27 studies after controlling for smoking. The relative risk was higher in never-smokers (meta-RR = 2.00; 95% CI, 1.09-3.67; 3studies and persisted when restricted to studies that adjusted for other occupational exposures (meta-RR = 1.57; 95% CI, 1.21-2.04; 5 studies. These results support the conclusion that occupational exposures in painters are causally associated with the risk of lung cancer.Conduziu-se uma meta-análise para comparar quatitativamente a associação entre o trabalho de pintor e a incidência ou mortalidade por câncer de pulmão. PubMed e listas de referência de publicações pertinentes foram pesquisadas e revisadas. Para a análise, foram usados dados de 47 estudos de caso, coorte independente e ligação de dados (de um total de 74 relatórios, incluindo > 11 mil casos de incidentes ou morte por câncer de pulmão entre pintores. Três autores coletaram dados e avaliaram a qualidade de estudo. O risco relativo (meta-RR, efeitos aleatórios de câncer de pulmão em pintores foi de 1,35 [95% intervalo de confiança (IC, 1,29-1,41; 47 estudos] e 1,35 (95% IC, 1,21-1,51; 27 estudos depois de se destacar os fumantes. O risco relativo foi maior naqueles que nunca fumaram (meta-RR = 2.00; 95% CI, 1,09-3,67; 3 estudos e persistiu quanto restringido a

  6. The characterisation and evaluation of uncertainty in probabilistic risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parry, G.W.; Winter, P.W.

    1980-10-01

    The sources of uncertainty in probabilistic risk analysis are discussed using the event/fault tree methodology as an example. The role of statistics in quantifying these uncertainties is investigated. A class of uncertainties is identified which is, at present, unquantifiable, using either classical or Bayesian statistics. It is argued that Bayesian statistics is the more appropriate vehicle for the probabilistic analysis of rare events and a short review is given with some discussion on the representation of ignorance. (author)

  7. Computer code for general analysis of radon risks (GARR)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ginevan, M.

    1984-09-01

    This document presents a computer model for general analysis of radon risks that allow the user to specify a large number of possible models with a small number of simple commands. The model is written in a version of BASIC which conforms closely to the American National Standards Institute (ANSI) definition for minimal BASIC and thus is readily modified for use on a wide variety of computers and, in particular, microcomputers. Model capabilities include generation of single-year life tables from 5-year abridged data, calculation of multiple-decrement life tables for lung cancer for the general population, smokers, and nonsmokers, and a cohort lung cancer risk calculation that allows specification of level and duration of radon exposure, the form of the risk model, and the specific population assumed at risk. 36 references, 8 figures, 7 tables

  8. Downside Risk analysis applied to the Hedge Funds universe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perelló, Josep

    2007-09-01

    Hedge Funds are considered as one of the portfolio management sectors which shows a fastest growing for the past decade. An optimal Hedge Fund management requires an appropriate risk metrics. The classic CAPM theory and its Ratio Sharpe fail to capture some crucial aspects due to the strong non-Gaussian character of Hedge Funds statistics. A possible way out to this problem while keeping the CAPM simplicity is the so-called Downside Risk analysis. One important benefit lies in distinguishing between good and bad returns, that is: returns greater or lower than investor's goal. We revisit most popular Downside Risk indicators and provide new analytical results on them. We compute these measures by taking the Credit Suisse/Tremont Investable Hedge Fund Index Data and with the Gaussian case as a benchmark. In this way, an unusual transversal lecture of the existing Downside Risk measures is provided.

  9. Quantitative risk analysis of the pipeline GASDUC III - solutions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Silva, Edmilson P.; Bettoni, Izabel Cristina [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    In this work the quantitative risks analysis to the external public of the Pipeline Cabiunas - REDUC (GASDUC III), with 180 km, linking the municipalities of Macae and Duque de Caxias - RJ was performed by the Companies PETROBRAS and ITSEMAP do Brasil. In addition to the large diameter of the pipeline 38 inches and high operation pressure 100 kgf/cm{sup 2} operating with natural gas through several densely populated areas. Initially, the individual risk contours were calculated without considering mitigating measures, obtaining as result the individual risk contour with frequencies of 1x10{sup -06} per year involving sensitive occupations and therefore considered unacceptable when compared with the INEA criterion. The societal risk was calculated for eight densely populated areas and their respective FN-curves situated below the advised limit established by INEA, except for two areas that required the proposal of additional mitigating measures to the reduction of societal risk. Regarding to societal risk, the FN-curve should be below the advised limit presented in the Technical Instruction of INEA. The individual and societal risk were reassessed incorporating some mitigating measures and the results situated below the advised limits established by INEA and PETROBRAS has obtained the license for installation of the pipeline. (author)

  10. Cancer risk factors in Korean news media: a content analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kye, Su Yeon; Kwon, Jeong Hyun; Kim, Yong-Chan; Shim, Minsun; Kim, Jee Hyun; Cho, Hyunsoon; Jung, Kyu Won; Park, Keeho

    2015-01-01

    Little is known about the news coverage of cancer risk factors in Korea. This study aimed to examine how the news media encompasses a wide array of content regarding cancer risk factors and related cancer sites, and investigate whether news coverage of cancer risk factors is congruent with the actual prevalence of the disease. A content analysis was conducted on 1,138 news stories covered during a 5-year period between 2008 and 2012. The news stories were selected from nationally representative media in Korea. Information was collected about cancer risk factors and cancer sites. Of various cancer risk factors, occupational and environmental exposures appeared most frequently in the news. Breast cancer was mentioned the most in relation to cancer sites. Breast, cervical, prostate, and skin cancer were overrepresented in the media in comparison to incidence and mortality cases, whereas lung, thyroid, liver, and stomach cancer were underrepresented. To our knowledge, this research is the first investigation dealing with news coverage about cancer risk factors in Korea. The study findings show occupational and environmental exposures are emphasized more than personal lifestyle factors; further, more prevalent cancers in developed countries have greater media coverage, not reflecting the realities of the disease. The findings may help health journalists and other health storytellers to develop effective ways to communicate cancer risk factors.

  11. Analysis of coastal protection under rising flood risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Megan J. Lickley

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Infrastructure located along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts is exposed to rising risk of flooding from sea level rise, increasing storm surge, and subsidence. In these circumstances coastal management commonly based on 100-year flood maps assuming current climatology is no longer adequate. A dynamic programming cost–benefit analysis is applied to the adaptation decision, illustrated by application to an energy facility in Galveston Bay. Projections of several global climate models provide inputs to estimates of the change in hurricane and storm surge activity as well as the increase in sea level. The projected rise in physical flood risk is combined with estimates of flood damage and protection costs in an analysis of the multi-period nature of adaptation choice. The result is a planning method, using dynamic programming, which is appropriate for investment and abandonment decisions under rising coastal risk.

  12. Analysis of dependent failures in risk assessment and reliability evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleming, K.N.; Mosleh, A.; Kelley, A.P. Jr.; Gas-Cooled Reactors Associates, La Jolla, CA)

    1983-01-01

    The ability to estimate the risk of potential reactor accidents is largely determined by the ability to analyze statistically dependent multiple failures. The importance of dependent failures has been indicated in recent probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) studies as well as in reports of reactor operating experiences. This article highlights the importance of several different types of dependent failures from the perspective of the risk and reliability analyst and provides references to the methods and data available for their analysis. In addition to describing the current state of the art, some recent advances, pitfalls, misconceptions, and limitations of some approaches to dependent failure analysis are addressed. A summary is included of the discourse on this subject, which is presented in the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers/American Nuclear Society PRA Procedures Guide

  13. Risk analysis and priority setting for environmental policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Travis, C.C.

    1991-01-01

    There is a growing realization that the demand for funding to correct our nation's environmental problems will soon outstrip available resources. In the hazardous waste area alone, the estimated cost of remediating Superfund sites ranges from $32 billion to $80 billion. Numerous other areas of competing for these same financial resources. These include ozone depletion, global warming, the protection of endangered species and wetlands, toxic air pollution, carcinogenic pesticides, and urban smog. In response to this imbalance in the supply and demand for national funds, several political constituencies are calling for the use of risk assessment as a tool in the prioritization of research and budget needs. Comparative risk analysis offers a logical framework in which to organize information about complex environmental problems. Risk analysis allows policy analysts to make resource allocation decisions on the basis of scientific judgement rather than political expediency

  14. Analysis of Historical Rainfall Data and Associated Risks on Rain ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    distribution over the last six decades and tries to do a number of weather induced risk analysis in relation to different rainfall events that has special importance to the local farmers. Different type of rainfall events over the past six decades was assessed in relation to Ethiopian rain fed” tef” production. Tef is an important ...

  15. Yucca Mountain transportation routes: Preliminary characterization and risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Souleyrette, R.R. II; Sathisan, S.K.; di Bartolo, R.

    1991-01-01

    This report presents appendices related to the preliminary assessment and risk analysis for high-level radioactive waste transportation routes to the proposed Yucca Mountain Project repository. Information includes data on population density, traffic volume, ecologically sensitive areas, and accident history

  16. Design of Process Displays based on Risk Analysis Techniques

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paulsen, Jette Lundtang

    -tions. On the basis of her experience with the design of display systems; with risk analysis methods and from 8 years, as an engi-neer-on-shift at a research reactor, the author developed a method to elicit necessary information to the operator. The method, a combination of a Goal-Tree and a Fault-Tree, is described...

  17. Quantitative risk analysis as a basis for emergency planning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yogui, Regiane Tiemi Teruya [Bureau Veritas do Brasil, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Macedo, Eduardo Soares de [Instituto de Pesquisas Tecnologicas (IPT), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    Several environmental accidents happened in Brazil and in the world during the 70's and 80's. This strongly motivated the preparation for emergencies in the chemical and petrochemical industries. Environmental accidents affect the environment and the communities that are neighbor to the industrial facilities. The present study aims at subsidizing and providing orientation to develop Emergency Planning from the data obtained on Quantitative Risk Analysis, elaborated according to the Technical Standard P4.261/03 from CETESB (Sao Paulo Environmental Agency). It was observed, during the development of the research, that the data generated on these studies need a complementation and a deeper analysis, so that it is possible to use them on the Emergency Plans. The main issues that were analyzed and discussed on this study were the reevaluation of hazard identification for the emergency plans, the consequences and vulnerability analysis for the response planning, the risk communication, and the preparation to respond to the emergencies of the communities exposed to manageable risks. As a result, the study intends to improve the interpretation and use of the data deriving from the Quantitative Risk Analysis to develop the emergency plans. (author)

  18. Medicine and ionizing radiation: help cards for risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gauron, C.

    2004-01-01

    Following an inquiry in Ile de France on radiation protection, a scientific committee associating several institutions and different experts has elaborated cards for help to risk analysis. A first series of this cards is published in this issue documents for the labour physician and will be next on Internet. the other fields of medical use will be covered in the future. (N.C.)

  19. [Modular risk analysis for assessing multiple waste sites]: Proceedings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Whelan, G.

    1994-01-01

    This document contains proceedings from the Integrated Planning Workshop from Strategic Planning to Baselining and Other Objectives. Topics discussed include: stakeholder involvement; regulations; future site use planning; site integration and baseline methods; risk analysis in decision making; land uses; and economics in decision making. Individual records have been processed separately for the database

  20. Seismic risk analysis for General Electric Plutonium Facility, Pleasanton, California

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1978-01-01

    This report presents the results of a seismic risk analysis that focuses on all possible sources of seismic activity, with the exception of the postulated Verona Fault. The best estimate curve indicates that the Vallecitos facility will experience 30% g with a return period of roughly 130 years and 60% g with a return period of roughly 700 years

  1. RiskChanges Spatial Decision Support system for the analysis of changing multi-hazard risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Westen, Cees; Zhang, Kaixi; Bakker, Wim; Andrejchenko, Vera; Berlin, Julian; Olyazadeh, Roya; Cristal, Irina

    2015-04-01

    Within the framework of the EU FP7 Marie Curie Project CHANGES and the EU FP7 Copernicus project INCREO a spatial decision support system was developed with the aim to analyse the effect of risk reduction planning alternatives on reducing the risk now and in the future, and support decision makers in selecting the best alternatives. Central to the SDSS are the stakeholders. The envisaged users of the system are organizations involved in planning of risk reduction measures, and that have staff capable of visualizing and analyzing spatial data at a municipal scale. The SDSS should be able to function in different countries with different legal frameworks and with organizations with different mandates. These could be subdivided into Civil protection organization with the mandate to design disaster response plans, Expert organizations with the mandate to design structural risk reduction measures (e.g. dams, dikes, check-dams etc), and planning organizations with the mandate to make land development plans. The SDSS can be used in different ways: analyzing the current level of risk, analyzing the best alternatives for risk reduction, the evaluation of the consequences of possible future scenarios to the risk levels, and the evaluation how different risk reduction alternatives will lead to risk reduction under different future scenarios. The SDSS is developed based on open source software and following open standards, for code as well as for data formats and service interfaces. Code development was based upon open source software as well. The architecture of the system is modular. The various parts of the system are loosely coupled, extensible, using standards for interoperability, flexible and web-based. The Spatial Decision Support System is composed of a number of integrated components. The Risk Assessment component allows to carry out spatial risk analysis, with different degrees of complexity, ranging from simple exposure (overlay of hazard and assets maps) to

  2. Predicting complication risk in spine surgery: a prospective analysis of a novel risk assessment tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veeravagu, Anand; Li, Amy; Swinney, Christian; Tian, Lu; Moraff, Adrienne; Azad, Tej D; Cheng, Ivan; Alamin, Todd; Hu, Serena S; Anderson, Robert L; Shuer, Lawrence; Desai, Atman; Park, Jon; Olshen, Richard A; Ratliff, John K

    2017-07-01

    OBJECTIVE The ability to assess the risk of adverse events based on known patient factors and comorbidities would provide more effective preoperative risk stratification. Present risk assessment in spine surgery is limited. An adverse event prediction tool was developed to predict the risk of complications after spine surgery and tested on a prospective patient cohort. METHODS The spinal Risk Assessment Tool (RAT), a novel instrument for the assessment of risk for patients undergoing spine surgery that was developed based on an administrative claims database, was prospectively applied to 246 patients undergoing 257 spinal procedures over a 3-month period. Prospectively collected data were used to compare the RAT to the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and the American College of Surgeons National Surgery Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) Surgical Risk Calculator. Study end point was occurrence and type of complication after spine surgery. RESULTS The authors identified 69 patients (73 procedures) who experienced a complication over the prospective study period. Cardiac complications were most common (10.2%). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were calculated to compare complication outcomes using the different assessment tools. Area under the curve (AUC) analysis showed comparable predictive accuracy between the RAT and the ACS NSQIP calculator (0.670 [95% CI 0.60-0.74] in RAT, 0.669 [95% CI 0.60-0.74] in NSQIP). The CCI was not accurate in predicting complication occurrence (0.55 [95% CI 0.48-0.62]). The RAT produced mean probabilities of 34.6% for patients who had a complication and 24% for patients who did not (p = 0.0003). The generated predicted values were stratified into low, medium, and high rates. For the RAT, the predicted complication rate was 10.1% in the low-risk group (observed rate 12.8%), 21.9% in the medium-risk group (observed 31.8%), and 49.7% in the high-risk group (observed 41.2%). The ACS NSQIP calculator consistently

  3. SU-F-T-243: Major Risks in Radiotherapy. A Review Based On Risk Analysis Literature

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    López-Tarjuelo, J; Guasp-Tortajada, M; Iglesias-Montenegro, N; Monasor-Denia, P [Servicio de Radiofísica y Protección Radiológica, Consorcio Hospitalario Provincial de Castellón, Castellón de la Plana, España/Spain (Spain); Bouché-Babiloni, A; Morillo-Macías, V; Ferrer-Albiach, C [Servicio de Oncología Radioterápica, Consorcio Hospitalario Provincial de Castellón, Castellón de la Plana, España/Spain (Spain)

    2016-06-15

    Purpose: We present a literature review of risk analyses in radiotherapy to highlight the most reported risks and facilitate the spread of this valuable information so that professionals can be aware of these major threats before performing their own studies. Methods: We considered studies with at least an estimation of the probability of occurrence of an adverse event (O) and its associated severity (S). They cover external beam radiotherapy, brachytherapy, intraoperative radiotherapy, and stereotactic techniques. We selected only the works containing a detailed ranked series of elements or failure modes and focused on the first fully reported quartile as much. Afterward, we sorted the risk elements according to a regular radiotherapy procedure so that the resulting groups were cited in several works and be ranked in this way. Results: 29 references published between 2007 and February 2016 were studied. Publication trend has been generally rising. The most employed analysis has been the Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA). Among references, we selected 20 works listing 258 ranked risk elements. They were sorted into 31 groups appearing at least in two different works. 11 groups appeared in at least 5 references and 5 groups did it in 7 or more papers. These last sets of risks where choosing another set of images or plan for planning or treating, errors related with contours, errors in patient positioning for treatment, human mistakes when programming treatments, and planning errors. Conclusion: There is a sufficient amount and variety of references for identifying which failure modes or elements should be addressed in a radiotherapy department before attempting a specific analysis. FMEA prevailed, but other studies such as “risk matrix” or “occurrence × severity” analyses can also lead professionals’ efforts. Risk associated with human actions ranks very high; therefore, they should be automated or at least peer-reviewed.

  4. SU-F-T-243: Major Risks in Radiotherapy. A Review Based On Risk Analysis Literature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    López-Tarjuelo, J; Guasp-Tortajada, M; Iglesias-Montenegro, N; Monasor-Denia, P; Bouché-Babiloni, A; Morillo-Macías, V; Ferrer-Albiach, C

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: We present a literature review of risk analyses in radiotherapy to highlight the most reported risks and facilitate the spread of this valuable information so that professionals can be aware of these major threats before performing their own studies. Methods: We considered studies with at least an estimation of the probability of occurrence of an adverse event (O) and its associated severity (S). They cover external beam radiotherapy, brachytherapy, intraoperative radiotherapy, and stereotactic techniques. We selected only the works containing a detailed ranked series of elements or failure modes and focused on the first fully reported quartile as much. Afterward, we sorted the risk elements according to a regular radiotherapy procedure so that the resulting groups were cited in several works and be ranked in this way. Results: 29 references published between 2007 and February 2016 were studied. Publication trend has been generally rising. The most employed analysis has been the Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA). Among references, we selected 20 works listing 258 ranked risk elements. They were sorted into 31 groups appearing at least in two different works. 11 groups appeared in at least 5 references and 5 groups did it in 7 or more papers. These last sets of risks where choosing another set of images or plan for planning or treating, errors related with contours, errors in patient positioning for treatment, human mistakes when programming treatments, and planning errors. Conclusion: There is a sufficient amount and variety of references for identifying which failure modes or elements should be addressed in a radiotherapy department before attempting a specific analysis. FMEA prevailed, but other studies such as “risk matrix” or “occurrence × severity” analyses can also lead professionals’ efforts. Risk associated with human actions ranks very high; therefore, they should be automated or at least peer-reviewed.

  5. Risk factors for deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism after traumatic injury: A competing risks analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Gent, Jan-Michael; Calvo, Richard Yee; Zander, Ashley L; Olson, Erik J; Sise, C Beth; Sise, Michael J; Shackford, Steven R

    2017-12-01

    Venous thromboembolism, including deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and pulmonary embolism (PE), is typically reported as a composite measure of the quality of trauma center care. Given that recent data suggesting postinjury DVT and PE are distinct clinical processes, a better understanding may result from analyzing them as independent, competing events. Using competing risks analysis, we evaluated our hypothesis that the risk factors and timing of postinjury DVT and PE are different. We examined all adult trauma patients admitted to our Level I trauma center from July 2006 to December 2011 who received at least one surveillance duplex ultrasound of the lower extremities and who were at high risk or greater for DVT. Outcomes included DVT and PE events, and time-to-event from admission. We used competing risks analysis to evaluate risk factors for DVT while accounting for PE as a competing event, and vice versa. Of 2,370 patients, 265 (11.2%) had at least one venous thromboembolism event, 235 DVT only, 19 PE only, 11 DVT and PE. Within 2 days of admission, 38% of DVT cases had occurred compared with 26% of PE. Competing risks modeling of DVT as primary event identified older age, severe injury (Injury Severity Score, ≥ 15), mechanical ventilation longer than 4 days, active cancer, history of DVT or PE, major venous repair, male sex, and prophylactic enoxaparin and prophylactic heparin as associated risk factors. Modeling of PE as the primary event showed younger age, nonsevere injury (Injury Severity Score, risk factors for PE and DVT after injury were different, suggesting that they are clinically distinct events that merit independent consideration. Many DVT events occurred early despite prophylaxis, bringing into question the preventability of postinjury DVT. We recommend trauma center quality reporting program measures be revised to account for DVT and PE as unique events. Epidemiologic, level III.

  6. Estudo do dengue em área urbana favelizada do Rio de Janeiro: considerações iniciais Dengue in a Rio de Janeiro slum: a preliminary analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Márcia de Freitas Lenzi

    2000-09-01

    Full Text Available Este estudo é parte de um programa que visa ao controle e prevenção do dengue em área urbana favelizada vizinha à Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, Brasil. Como resultado da aplicação de um questionário acompanhado de levantamento entomológico, pôde-se observar problemas ligados a informações veiculadas pelas campanhas de saúde pública para o controle do dengue, e suas interpretações por parte da população local, ao se verificar práticas que favorecem a procriação do mosquito, resultantes do esquecimento dessas mensagens ou de interpretação parcial das mesmas. Os dados provenientes do questionário são relativos ao nível de informação sobre dengue, criadouros mais freqüentes; conhecimento e hábitos da população local no tocante à endemia. As conclusões deste estudo apontam para a necessidade de: elaboração de mensagens que informem não só práticas preventivas ideais, mas também ofereçam soluções possíveis; divulgação permanente de mensagens através da mídia; planejamento de atividades de educação em saúde para o estreitamento da relação entre profissionais de saúde e população, com o objetivo da construção de alternativas sustentáveis para o controle do dengue.This study is part of a program to control and prevent dengue in a slum bordering on the grounds of the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The results obtained from a questionnaire and entomological survey called attention to problems pertaining to the information transmitted by public health campaigns and its interpretation, since many practices result from misunderstanding or forgetting preventive messages. Dengue-related data include most frequent vector breeding sites, people's knowledge, and dengue-related habits. The study's conclusions in terms of dengue prevention point to the need for drafting messages not only about ideal preventive practices but also teaching possible solutions: disseminating

  7. Key attributes of the SAPHIRE risk and reliability analysis software for risk-informed probabilistic applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, Curtis; Knudsen, James; Kvarfordt, Kellie; Wood, Ted

    2008-01-01

    The Idaho National Laboratory is a primary developer of probabilistic risk and reliability analysis (PRRA) tools, dating back over 35 years. Evolving from mainframe-based software, the current state-of-the-practice has led to the creation of the SAPHIRE software. Currently, agencies such as the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the National Aeronautics and Aerospace Agency, the Department of Energy, and the Department of Defense use version 7 of the SAPHIRE software for many of their risk-informed activities. In order to better understand and appreciate the power of software as part of risk-informed applications, we need to recall that our current analysis methods and solution methods have built upon pioneering work done 30-40 years ago. We contrast this work with the current capabilities in the SAPHIRE analysis package. As part of this discussion, we provide information for both the typical features and special analysis capabilities, which are available. We also present the application and results typically found with state-of-the-practice PRRA models. By providing both a high-level and detailed look at the SAPHIRE software, we give a snapshot in time for the current use of software tools in a risk-informed decision arena

  8. A scenario-based procedure for seismic risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kluegel, J.-U.; Mualchin, L.; Panza, G.F.

    2006-12-01

    A new methodology for seismic risk analysis based on probabilistic interpretation of deterministic or scenario-based hazard analysis, in full compliance with the likelihood principle and therefore meeting the requirements of modern risk analysis, has been developed. The proposed methodology can easily be adjusted to deliver its output in a format required for safety analysts and civil engineers. The scenario-based approach allows the incorporation of all available information collected in a geological, seismotectonic and geotechnical database of the site of interest as well as advanced physical modelling techniques to provide a reliable and robust deterministic design basis for civil infrastructures. The robustness of this approach is of special importance for critical infrastructures. At the same time a scenario-based seismic hazard analysis allows the development of the required input for probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) as required by safety analysts and insurance companies. The scenario-based approach removes the ambiguity in the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) which relies on the projections of Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) equation. The problems in the validity of G-R projections, because of incomplete to total absence of data for making the projections, are still unresolved. Consequently, the information from G-R must not be used in decisions for design of critical structures or critical elements in a structure. The scenario-based methodology is strictly based on observable facts and data and complemented by physical modelling techniques, which can be submitted to a formalised validation process. By means of sensitivity analysis, knowledge gaps related to lack of data can be dealt with easily, due to the limited amount of scenarios to be investigated. The proposed seismic risk analysis can be used with confidence for planning, insurance and engineering applications. (author)

  9. Risk Assessment of Healthcare Waste by Preliminary Hazard Analysis Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pouran Morovati

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Introduction and purpose: Improper management of healthcare waste (HCW can pose considerable risks to human health and the environment and cause serious problems in developing countries such as Iran. In this study, we sought to determine the hazards of HCW in the public hospitals affiliated to Abadan School of Medicine using the preliminary hazard analysis (PHA method. Methods: In this descriptive and analytic study, health risk assessment of HCW in government hospitals affiliated to Abadan School of Medicine (4 public hospitals was carried out by using PHA in the summer of  2016. Results: We noted the high risk of sharps and infectious wastes. Considering the dual risk of injury and disease transmission, sharps were classified in the very high-risk group, and pharmaceutical and chemical and radioactive wastes were classified in the medium-risk group. Sharps posed the highest risk, while pharmaceutical and chemical wastes had the lowest risk. Among the various stages of waste management, the waste treatment stage was the most hazardous in all the studied hospitals. Conclusion: To diminish the risks associated with healthcare waste management in the studied hospitals, adequate training of healthcare workers and care providers, provision of suitable personal protective and transportation equipment, and supervision of the environmental health manager of hospitals should be considered by the authorities.  

  10. 76 FR 76103 - Privacy Act; Notice of Proposed Rulemaking: State-78, Risk Analysis and Management Records

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-06

    ... Rulemaking: State-78, Risk Analysis and Management Records SUMMARY: Notice is hereby given that the... portions of the Risk Analysis and Management (RAM) Records, State-78, system of records contain criminal...) * * * (2) * * * Risk Analysis and Management Records, STATE-78. * * * * * (b) * * * (1) * * * Risk Analysis...

  11. The integration methods of fuzzy fault mode and effect analysis and fault tree analysis for risk analysis of yogurt production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aprilia, Ayu Rizky; Santoso, Imam; Ekasari, Dhita Murita

    2017-05-01

    Yogurt is a product based on milk, which has beneficial effects for health. The process for the production of yogurt is very susceptible to failure because it involves bacteria and fermentation. For an industry, the risks may cause harm and have a negative impact. In order for a product to be successful and profitable, it requires the analysis of risks that may occur during the production process. Risk analysis can identify the risks in detail and prevent as well as determine its handling, so that the risks can be minimized. Therefore, this study will analyze the risks of the production process with a case study in CV.XYZ. The method used in this research is the Fuzzy Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (fuzzy FMEA) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA). The results showed that there are 6 risks from equipment variables, raw material variables, and process variables. Those risks include the critical risk, which is the risk of a lack of an aseptic process, more specifically if starter yogurt is damaged due to contamination by fungus or other bacteria and a lack of sanitation equipment. The results of quantitative analysis of FTA showed that the highest probability is the probability of the lack of an aseptic process, with a risk of 3.902%. The recommendations for improvement include establishing SOPs (Standard Operating Procedures), which include the process, workers, and environment, controlling the starter of yogurt and improving the production planning and sanitation equipment using hot water immersion.

  12. Risk and sensitivity analysis in relation to external events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alzbutas, R.; Urbonas, R.; Augutis, J.

    2001-01-01

    This paper presents risk and sensitivity analysis of external events impacts on the safe operation in general and in particular the Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant safety systems. Analysis is based on the deterministic and probabilistic assumptions and assessment of the external hazards. The real statistic data are used as well as initial external event simulation. The preliminary screening criteria are applied. The analysis of external event impact on the NPP safe operation, assessment of the event occurrence, sensitivity analysis, and recommendations for safety improvements are performed for investigated external hazards. Such events as aircraft crash, extreme rains and winds, forest fire and flying parts of the turbine are analysed. The models are developed and probabilities are calculated. As an example for sensitivity analysis the model of aircraft impact is presented. The sensitivity analysis takes into account the uncertainty features raised by external event and its model. Even in case when the external events analysis show rather limited danger, the sensitivity analysis can determine the highest influence causes. These possible variations in future can be significant for safety level and risk based decisions. Calculations show that external events cannot significantly influence the safety level of the Ignalina NPP operation, however the events occurrence and propagation can be sufficiently uncertain.(author)

  13. Safety- and Risk Analysis Activities in Chemical Industry in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kozine, Igor; Duijm, Nijs Jan; Lauridsen Kurt

    2001-01-01

    The current paper gives an overview of the legislation and the methods used in safety and risk management in the chemical industry within Europe and in particular within the European Union. The paper is based on a report that has been written for the SOS-1 project under the Nordic nuclear safety research (NKS). Safety- and risk-related matters in the process industry, in particular, in chemical, within the EU are subject to consideration at three levels: (1) EU legislation, (2) European/intemational standardisation, and (3) socio-economic analysis. EC Directives define the 'essential requirements', e.g., protection of health and safety, that must be fulfilled when goods are placed on the market or some industry is put into operation. The European standards bodies (CEN, CENELEC and ETSI) have the task of establishing the corresponding technical specifications, meeting the essential requirements of the Directives, compliance with which will provide a presumption of conformity with the essential requirements. Such specifications are referred to as 'harmonised standards'. Compliance with harmonised standards remains voluntary, and manufacturers are free to choose any other technical solution that provides compliance with the essential requirements. This view is stated in the 'New Approach' to technical harmonisation and standardisation (details can be found on the web page: http://europe.eu.int/comm/enterprise/newapproach/standardization/index .html). Standardisation as well as the regulation of technical risks is increasingly being undertaken at European or international level. The European legislator limits its role to the affirmation of overall objectives, and leaves it to the economic players to draw up the technical procedures and standards to specify in detail the ways and means of attaining them. Many countries have introduced requirements that new legislation and/or administrative regulations be subject to socio-economic analysis. In this respect there is a

  14. Relações familiares e cotidiano: a análise de quatro estudos à luz de Michel Maffesoli Family relationships and daily living process: analysis of four studies based on Michel Maffesoli

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edilza Ribeiro

    2002-04-01

    Full Text Available Este estudo tem por objetivo analisar o processo de viver no cotidiano, evidenciando as relações familiares. Para o alcance do mesmo, optamos por fazer uma análise de documentos, ou seja, de três dissertações de mestrado e uma tese de doutorado, sendo que os dados foram coletados a partir de quatro questões norteadoras vinculadas ao objetivo geral do estudo: quais os componentes do processo de viver as relações familiares no cotidiano? Quais as dificuldades que as famílias encontram na convivência cotidiana com o doente mental? Quais as formas de manejos apresentadas pelas famílias em diferentes situações no convívio cotidiano com o alcoolista? Qual a percepção do ser e viver saudável da mulher no seu cotidiano? Na análise dos dados, buscamos convergências e divergências que nos permitissem uma melhor compreensão dos aspectos em estudo. Para alcançar esta compreensão, utilizamos as categorias de análise do cotidiano - propostas por Maffesoli (1984 - jogo duplo, astúcia, silêncio, aceitação da vida e solidariedade orgânicaThis study aims at analyzing the daily living process emphasizing family relationships. In order to do so, we opted for doing an analysis of documents, i.e., three Master course dissertations and a doctorate thesis. We collected the data having in mind four guiding questions linked to the general objective of the study: what were the components of the process of living the family relationships in the daily routine? What difficulties do families have to cope with mentally handicapped individuals? How do families handle different situations in daily living with alcohol addicted individuals? What was the women’s perception regarding being and living healthy in their daily routine? When analyzing the data, we looked for convergences and divergences which provided better understanding of the aspects under study. To reach this understanding, we used the categories of daily routine analysis - proposed by

  15. New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skandamis, Panagiotis N.; Andritsos, Nikolaos; Psomas, Antonios; Paramythiotis, Spyridon

    2015-01-01

    The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total ‘failure’ that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user

  16. New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Skandamis, Panagiotis N., E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Andritsos, Nikolaos, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Psomas, Antonios, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Paramythiotis, Spyridon, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr [Laboratory of Food Quality Control and Hygiene, Department of Food Science and Technology, Agricultural University of Athens, Iera Odos 75, 118 55, Athens (Greece)

    2015-01-22

    The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total ‘failure’ that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user

  17. New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skandamis, Panagiotis N.; Andritsos, Nikolaos; Psomas, Antonios; Paramythiotis, Spyridon

    2015-01-01

    The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total `failure' that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user-friendly softwares

  18. Risk analysis of analytical validations by probabilistic modification of FMEA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barends, D M; Oldenhof, M T; Vredenbregt, M J; Nauta, M J

    2012-05-01

    Risk analysis is a valuable addition to validation of an analytical chemistry process, enabling not only detecting technical risks, but also risks related to human failures. Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) can be applied, using a categorical risk scoring of the occurrence, detection and severity of failure modes, and calculating the Risk Priority Number (RPN) to select failure modes for correction. We propose a probabilistic modification of FMEA, replacing the categorical scoring of occurrence and detection by their estimated relative frequency and maintaining the categorical scoring of severity. In an example, the results of traditional FMEA of a Near Infrared (NIR) analytical procedure used for the screening of suspected counterfeited tablets are re-interpretated by this probabilistic modification of FMEA. Using this probabilistic modification of FMEA, the frequency of occurrence of undetected failure mode(s) can be estimated quantitatively, for each individual failure mode, for a set of failure modes, and the full analytical procedure. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Risk analysis for autonomous underwater vehicle operations in extreme environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brito, Mario Paulo; Griffiths, Gwyn; Challenor, Peter

    2010-12-01

    Autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) are used increasingly to explore hazardous marine environments. Risk assessment for such complex systems is based on subjective judgment and expert knowledge as much as on hard statistics. Here, we describe the use of a risk management process tailored to AUV operations, the implementation of which requires the elicitation of expert judgment. We conducted a formal judgment elicitation process where eight world experts in AUV design and operation were asked to assign a probability of AUV loss given the emergence of each fault or incident from the vehicle's life history of 63 faults and incidents. After discussing methods of aggregation and analysis, we show how the aggregated risk estimates obtained from the expert judgments were used to create a risk model. To estimate AUV survival with mission distance, we adopted a statistical survival function based on the nonparametric Kaplan-Meier estimator. We present theoretical formulations for the estimator, its variance, and confidence limits. We also present a numerical example where the approach is applied to estimate the probability that the Autosub3 AUV would survive a set of missions under Pine Island Glacier, Antarctica in January-March 2009. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

  20. Dynamic risk analysis using bow-tie approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khakzad, Nima; Khan, Faisal; Amyotte, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Accident probability estimation is a common and central step to all quantitative risk assessment methods. Among many techniques available, bow-tie model (BT) is very popular because it represent the accident scenario altogether including causes and consequences. However, it suffers a static structure limiting its application in real-time monitoring and probability updating which are key factors in dynamic risk analysis. The present work is focused on using BT approach in a dynamic environment in which the occurrence probability of accident consequences changes. In this method, on one hand, failure probability of primary events of BT, leading to the top event, are developed using physical reliability models, and constantly revised as physical parameters (e.g., pressure, velocity, dimension, etc) change. And, on the other hand, the failure probability of safety barriers of the BT are periodically updated using Bayes’ theorem as new information becomes available over time. Finally, the resulting, updated BT is used to estimate the posterior probability of the consequences which in turn results in an updated risk profile. - Highlights: ► A methodology is proposed to make bow-tie method adapted for dynamic risk analysis. ► Physical reliability models are used to revise the top event. ► Bayes’ theorem is used to update the probability of safety barriers. ► The number of accidents in sequential time intervals is used to form likelihood function. ► The risk profile is updated for varying physical parameters and for different times.

  1. Advanced risk analysis of systems endangered by ESD

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kiss, Istvan; Szedenik, Norbert; Nemeth, Balint; Gulyas, Attila; Berta, Istvan

    2008-01-01

    Evaluation of industrial processes to determine risk of fire or explosion caused by electrostatic discharge (ESD) is even nowadays qualitative in most cases. Although qualitative analysis significantly helps to make an industrial process safer, it is based on the survey of the process and strongly subjective, depending on the estimation of an expert. Fault tree analysis is a traditional method to quantify the risk; it helps to select optimal protection. However, determination of top event, secondary events and basic events of the fault tree is difficult, especially the quantification of the probabilities of the basic events. In several cases no statistical information is available for most of the events. Using fuzzy membership functions instead of simple numbers for the quantification of probabilities makes it possible to take this uncertainty into consideration. Fuzzy logic based fault tree analysis of chemical processes were made to determine the effect of basic events on the probability of the top event (explosion or fire) and its reliability.

  2. Antepartum Fetal Monitoring and Spectral Analysis of Preterm Birth Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Păsăricără, Alexandru; Nemescu, Dragoş; Arotăriţei, Dragoş; Rotariu, Cristian

    2017-11-01

    The monitoring and analysis of antepartum fetal and maternal recordings is a research area of notable interest due to the relatively high value of preterm birth. The interest stems from the improvement of devices used for monitoring. The current paper presents the spectral analysis of antepartum heart rate recordings conducted during a study in Romania at the Cuza Voda Obstetrics and Gynecology Clinical Hospital from Iasi between 2010 and 2014. The study focuses on normal and preterm birth risk subjects in order to determine differences between these two types or recordings in terms of spectral analysis.

  3. Analysis of competing risk parameters in irradiated prostate cancer patients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mayer, R.; Mayer, E.; Langsenlehner, U.; Hackl, A.; Pummer, K.; Quehenberger, F.; Feigl, G.

    2003-01-01

    Purpose: Retrospective competing risk analysis of prognostic factors in definitive-irradiated prostate cancer patients. Patients and Methods: Data of 652 patients were analyzed according to three age subgroups ( 75 years; Table 1). Pre-RT PSA values (median 13.4 ng/ml) were available for 340 patients. Adjuvant hormone therapy (n = 261) consisted either of orchiectomy (n = 151) or LHRH agonist with/without antiandrogen therapy or, in the early years, diethystilbestrol. Neoadjuvant hormone therapy (n = 31) using LHRH agonists was given 6 months before and during radiotherapy. Results: Biochemical failure was observed in 69/.340 patients, 5 years after biochemical failure, 64.9% of them also had failed clinically. The cumulative incidence of local failure (LF) and distant metastases (DM) was 9.4% and 37.2%, respectively; LF and DM at the same time were seen in 18.2%. On multivariate analysis (Tables 2 and 3), advanced stage (relative risk [RR] 4.54), pre-RT PSA > 20 ng/ml (RR 2.79) and poorly differentiated tumors (RR 2.96) were significant predictors of biochemical failure. Advanced stage increased the risk of LF (RR 2.18), DM (RR 3.66), and prostate cancer death (PCD; RR 4.30). Hormone therapy decreased the risk of biochemical failure (RR 0.67), DM (RR 0.59), and PCD (RR 0.60) without reaching statistical significance. Median follow-up was 7.6 years. Conclusion: Risk of biochemical failure was predicted by pre-RT PSA, stage, and grade; in patients with biochemical failure, the cumulative incidence of death from intercurrent diseases and PCD was 25.0% and 29.2% after 5 years, respectively. The risk of DM and PCD was predicted by stage and grade. Higher age (> 75 years) decreased the relative risk of LF, DM, and PCD significantly. (orig.)

  4. A free and open source QGIS plugin for flood risk analysis: FloodRisk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albano, Raffaele; Sole, Aurelia; Mancusi, Leonardo

    2016-04-01

    An analysis of global statistics shows a substantial increase in flood damage over the past few decades. Moreover, it is expected that flood risk will continue to rise due to the combined effect of increasing numbers of people and economic assets in risk-prone areas and the effects of climate change. In order to increase the resilience of European economies and societies, the improvement of risk assessment and management has been pursued in the last years. This results in a wide range of flood analysis models of different complexities with substantial differences in underlying components needed for its implementation, as geographical, hydrological and social differences demand specific approaches in the different countries. At present, it is emerging the need of promote the creation of open, transparent, reliable and extensible tools for a comprehensive, context-specific and applicable flood risk analysis. In this context, the free and open-source Quantum GIS (QGIS) plugin "FloodRisk" is a good starting point to address this objective. The vision of the developers of this free and open source software (FOSS) is to combine the main features of state-of-the-art science, collaboration, transparency and interoperability in an initiative to assess and communicate flood risk worldwide and to assist authorities to facilitate the quality and fairness of flood risk management at multiple scales. Among the scientific community, this type of activity can be labelled as "participatory research", intended as adopting a set of techniques that "are interactive and collaborative" and reproducible, "providing a meaningful research experience that both promotes learning and generates knowledge and research data through a process of guided discovery"' (Albano et al., 2015). Moreover, this FOSS geospatial approach can lowering the financial barriers to understanding risks at national and sub-national levels through a spatio-temporal domain and can provide better and more complete

  5. Sensitivity Analysis of Launch Vehicle Debris Risk Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gee, Ken; Lawrence, Scott L.

    2010-01-01

    As part of an analysis of the loss of crew risk associated with an ascent abort system for a manned launch vehicle, a model was developed to predict the impact risk of the debris resulting from an explosion of the launch vehicle on the crew module. The model consisted of a debris catalog describing the number, size and imparted velocity of each piece of debris, a method to compute the trajectories of the debris and a method to calculate the impact risk given the abort trajectory of the crew module. The model provided a point estimate of the strike probability as a function of the debris catalog, the time of abort and the delay time between the abort and destruction of the launch vehicle. A study was conducted to determine the sensitivity of the strike probability to the various model input parameters and to develop a response surface model for use in the sensitivity analysis of the overall ascent abort risk model. The results of the sensitivity analysis and the response surface model are presented in this paper.

  6. Analysis of risk assessment methods for goods trucking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunyazova A.O.

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available the article considers models of risk assessment that can be applied to cargo transportation, for forecasting possible damage in the form of financial and material costs in order to reduce the percentage of probability of their occurrence. The analysis of risk by the method «Criterion. Event. Rule" is represented. This method is based on the collection of information by various methods, assigning an assessment to the identified risks, ranking and formulating a report on the analysis. It can be carried out as a fully manual mechanical method of information collecting and performing calculations or can be brought to an automated level from data collection to the delivery of finished results (but in this case some nuances that could significantly influence the outcome of the analysis can be ignored. The expert method is of particular importance, since it relies directly on human experience. In this case, a special role is played by the human factor. The collection of information and the assigned assessments to risk groups depend on the extent to which experts agree on this issue. The smaller the fluctuations in the values ​​of the estimates of the experts, the more accurate and optimal the results will be.

  7. Analysis of related risk factors for pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qi-Song Yu

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To explore the related risk factors for pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy to provide a theoretical evidence for effectively preventing the occurrence of pancreatic fistula. Methods: A total of 100 patients who were admitted in our hospital from January, 2012 to January, 2015 and had performed pancreaticoduodenectomy were included in the study. The related risk factors for developing pancreatic fistula were collected for single factor and Logistic multi-factor analysis. Results: Among the included patients, 16 had pancreatic fistula, and the total occurrence rate was 16% (16/100. The single-factor analysis showed that the upper abdominal operation history, preoperative bilirubin, pancreatic texture, pancreatic duct diameter, intraoperative amount of bleeding, postoperative hemoglobin, and application of somatostatin after operation were the risk factors for developing pancreatic fistula (P<0.05. The multi-factor analysis showed that the upper abdominal operation history, the soft pancreatic texture, small pancreatic duct diameter, and low postoperative hemoglobin were the dependent risk factors for developing pancreatic fistula (OR=4.162, 6.104, 5.613, 4.034, P<0.05. Conclusions: The occurrence of pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy is closely associated with the upper abdominal operation history, the soft pancreatic texture, small pancreatic duct diameter, and low postoperative hemoglobin; therefore, effective measures should be taken to reduce the occurrence of pancreatic fistula according to the patients’ own conditions.

  8. A comprehensive risk analysis of coastal zones in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Guanghui; Liu, Yijun; Wang, Hongbing; Wang, Xueying

    2014-03-01

    Although coastal zones occupy an important position in the world development, they face high risks and vulnerability to natural disasters because of their special locations and their high population density. In order to estimate their capability for crisis-response, various models have been established. However, those studies mainly focused on natural factors or conditions, which could not reflect the social vulnerability and regional disparities of coastal zones. Drawing lessons from the experiences of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), this paper presents a comprehensive assessment strategy based on the mechanism of Risk Matrix Approach (RMA), which includes two aspects that are further composed of five second-class indicators. The first aspect, the probability phase, consists of indicators of economic conditions, social development, and living standards, while the second one, the severity phase, is comprised of geographic exposure and natural disasters. After weighing all of the above indicators by applying the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Delphi Method, the paper uses the comprehensive assessment strategy to analyze the risk indices of 50 coastal cities in China. The analytical results are presented in ESRI ArcGis10.1, which generates six different risk maps covering the aspects of economy, society, life, environment, disasters, and an overall assessment of the five areas. Furthermore, the study also investigates the spatial pattern of these risk maps, with detailed discussion and analysis of different risks in coastal cities.

  9. Risk analysis for renewable energy projects due to constraints arising

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prostean, G.; Vasar, C.; Prostean, O.; Vartosu, A.

    2016-02-01

    Starting from the target of the European Union (EU) to use renewable energy in the area that aims a binding target of 20% renewable energy in final energy consumption by 2020, this article illustrates the identification of risks for implementation of wind energy projects in Romania, which could lead to complex technical implications, social and administrative. In specific projects analyzed in this paper were identified critical bottlenecks in the future wind power supply chain and reasonable time periods that may arise. Renewable energy technologies have to face a number of constraints that delayed scaling-up their production process, their transport process, the equipment reliability, etc. so implementing these types of projects requiring complex specialized team, the coordination of which also involve specific risks. The research team applied an analytical risk approach to identify major risks encountered within a wind farm project developed in Romania in isolated regions with different particularities, configured for different geographical areas (hill and mountain locations in Romania). Identification of major risks was based on the conceptual model set up for the entire project implementation process. Throughout this conceptual model there were identified specific constraints of such process. Integration risks were examined by an empirical study based on the method HAZOP (Hazard and Operability). The discussion describes the analysis of our results implementation context of renewable energy projects in Romania and creates a framework for assessing energy supply to any entity from renewable sources.

  10. Failure mode effect analysis and fault tree analysis as a combined methodology in risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wessiani, N. A.; Yoshio, F.

    2018-04-01

    There have been many studies reported the implementation of Failure Mode Effect Analysis (FMEA) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) as a method in risk management. However, most of the studies usually only choose one of these two methods in their risk management methodology. On the other side, combining these two methods will reduce the drawbacks of each methods when implemented separately. This paper aims to combine the methodology of FMEA and FTA in assessing risk. A case study in the metal company will illustrate how this methodology can be implemented. In the case study, this combined methodology will assess the internal risks that occur in the production process. Further, those internal risks should be mitigated based on their level of risks.

  11. On the use of judgement in probabilistic risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Apostolakis, G

    1986-05-01

    The extensive use of judgement in risk studies creates several issues related to the perception of probabilities and the value of formal theories for uncertainty analysis. The direct assessment of probability distributions may lead to biased curves that do not represent the state of knowledge of the assessors. The use of formal methods and the calibration of the analysts help alleviate some of these biases. Case studies involving the assessment of probability distributions for human error rates and for failure rates of components exemplify the importance of the careful use of expert opinions in risk studies.

  12. RADTRAN 5: A computer code for transportation risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neuhauser, K.S.; Kanipe, F.L.

    1991-01-01

    RADTRAN 5 is a computer code developed at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) in Albuquerque, NM, to estimate radiological and nonradiological risks of radioactive materials transportation. RADTRAN 5 is written in ANSI Standard FORTRAN 77 and contains significant advances in the methodology for route-specific analysis first developed by SNL for RADTRAN 4 (Neuhauser and Kanipe, 1992). Like the previous RADTRAN codes, RADTRAN 5 contains two major modules for incident-free and accident risk amlysis, respectively. All commercially important transportation modes may be analyzed with RADTRAN 5: highway by combination truck; highway by light-duty vehicle; rail; barge; ocean-going ship; cargo air; and passenger air

  13. EGYPTIAN MUTUAL FUNDS ANALYSIS: HISTORY, PERFORMANCE, OBJECTIVES, RISK AND RETURN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petru STEFEA

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The present research aims to overview the mutual fund in Egypt. The establishment of the first mutual funds was achieved in 1994. Nowadays, the total mutual funds reached 90 funds , approximately. The income funds represent the largest share of the Egyptian mutual funds (40%, growth funds (25% and the private equity funds is at least (1%. The total population of the Egyptian mutual funds reached 22. Finally, the study proved that the Egyptian mutual funds have an impact on fund return , total risk and systemic; when analysis relationship between risk and return. The study found influencing for mutual fund's objectives on Sharpe and Terynor ratios.

  14. Organization of Risk Analysis Codes for Living Evaluations (ORACLE)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Batt, D.L.; MacDonald, P.E.; Sattison, M.B.; Vesely, E.

    1987-01-01

    ORACLE (Organization of Risk Analysis Codes for Living Evaluations) is an integration concept for using risk-based information in United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) applications. Portions of ORACLE are being developed at the Idaho Nationale Engineering Laboratory for the USNRC. The ORACLE concept consists of related databases, software, user interfaces, processes, and quality control checks allowing a wide variety of regulatory problems and activities to be addressed using current, updated PRA information. The ORACLE concept provides for smooth transitions between one code and the next without pre- or post-processing. (orig.)

  15. Liquidity Risk Management: An Empirical Analysis on Panel Data Analysis and ISE Banking Sector

    OpenAIRE

    Sibel ÇELİK; Yasemin Deniz AKARIM

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we test the factors affecting liquidity risk management in banking sector in Turkey by using panel regression analysis. We use the data for 9 commercial banks traded in Istanbul Stock Exchange for the period 1998-2008. In conclusion, we find that risky liquid assets and return on equity variables are negatively related with liquidity risk. However, external financing and return on asset variables are positively related with liquidity risk. This finding is importance for banks s...

  16. Risk analysis in radiosurgery treatments using risk matrices; Analisis de riesgos en tratamientos de radiocirugia mediante matrices de riesgo

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Delgado, J. M.; Sanchez Cayela, C.; Ramirez, M. L.; Perez, A.

    2011-07-01

    The aim of this study is the risk analysis process stereotactic single-dose radiotherapy and evaluation of those initiating events that lead to increased risk and a possible solution in the design of barriers.

  17. Seismic risk analysis for the Westinghouse Electric facility, Cheswick, Pennsylvania

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1977-01-01

    This report presents the results of a detailed seismic risk analysis of the Westinghouse Electric plutonium fuel development facility at Cheswick, Pennsylvania. This report focuses on earthquakes. The historical seismic record was established after a review of available literature, consultation with operators of local seismic arrays and examination of appropriate seismic data bases. Because of the aseismicity of the region around the site, an analysis different from the conventional closest approach in a tectonic province was adapted. Earthquakes as far from the site as 1,000 km were included, as were the possibility of earthquakes at the site. In addition, various uncertainties in the input were explicitly considered in the analysis. For example, allowance was made for both the uncertainty in predicting maximum possible earthquakes in the region and the effect of the dispersion of data about the best fit attenuation relation. The attenuation relationship is derived from two of the most recent, advanced studies relating earthquake intensity reports and acceleration. Results of the risk analysis, which include a Bayesian estimate of the uncertainties, are presented as return period accelerations. The best estimate curve indicates that the Westinghouse facility will experience 0.05 g every 220 years and 0.10 g every 1400 years. The accelerations are very insensitive to the details of the source region geometries or the historical earthquake statistics in each region and each of the source regions contributes almost equally to the cumulative risk at the site

  18. Risk analysis within environmental impact assessment of proposed construction activity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zeleňáková, Martina; Zvijáková, Lenka

    2017-01-15

    Environmental impact assessment is an important process, prior to approval of the investment plan, providing a detailed examination of the likely and foreseeable impacts of proposed construction activity on the environment. The objective of this paper is to develop a specific methodology for the analysis and evaluation of environmental impacts of selected constructions – flood protection structures using risk analysis methods. The application of methodology designed for the process of environmental impact assessment will develop assumptions for further improvements or more effective implementation and performance of this process. The main objective of the paper is to improve the implementation of the environmental impact assessment process. Through the use of risk analysis methods in environmental impact assessment process, the set objective has been achieved. - Highlights: This paper is informed by an effort to develop research with the aim of: • Improving existing qualitative and quantitative methods for assessing the impacts • A better understanding of relations between probabilities and consequences • Methodology for the EIA of flood protection constructions based on risk analysis • Creative approaches in the search for environmentally friendly proposed activities.

  19. Risk analysis of critical infrastructures emphasizing electricity supply and interdependencies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kjølle, G.H.; Utne, I.B.; Gjerde, O.

    2012-01-01

    Failures in critical infrastructures can cause major damage to society. Wide-area interruptions (blackouts) in the electricity supply system have severe impacts on societal critical functions and other critical infrastructures, but there is no agreed-upon framework on how to analyze and predict the reliability of electricity supply. Thus, there is a need for an approach to cross-sector risk analyses, which facilitates risk analysis of outages in the electricity supply system and enables investigation of cascading failures and consequences in other infrastructures. This paper presents such an approach, which includes contingency analysis (power flow) and reliability analysis of power systems, as well as use of a cascade diagram for investigating interdependencies. A case study was carried out together with the Emergency Preparedness Group in the city of Oslo, Norway and the network company Hafslund Nett. The case study results highlight the need for cross-sector analyses by showing that the total estimated societal costs are substantially higher when cascading effects and consequences to other infrastructures are taken into account compared to only considering the costs of electricity interruptions as seen by the network company. The approach is a promising starting point for cross-sector risk analysis of electricity supply interruptions and consequences for dependent infrastructures.

  20. Risk analysis within environmental impact assessment of proposed construction activity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zeleňáková, Martina; Zvijáková, Lenka

    2017-01-01

    Environmental impact assessment is an important process, prior to approval of the investment plan, providing a detailed examination of the likely and foreseeable impacts of proposed construction activity on the environment. The objective of this paper is to develop a specific methodology for the analysis and evaluation of environmental impacts of selected constructions – flood protection structures using risk analysis methods. The application of methodology designed for the process of environmental impact assessment will develop assumptions for further improvements or more effective implementation and performance of this process. The main objective of the paper is to improve the implementation of the environmental impact assessment process. Through the use of risk analysis methods in environmental impact assessment process, the set objective has been achieved. - Highlights: This paper is informed by an effort to develop research with the aim of: • Improving existing qualitative and quantitative methods for assessing the impacts • A better understanding of relations between probabilities and consequences • Methodology for the EIA of flood protection constructions based on risk analysis • Creative approaches in the search for environmentally friendly proposed activities.

  1. Train integrity detection risk analysis based on PRISM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Yuan

    2018-04-01

    GNSS based Train Integrity Monitoring System (TIMS) is an effective and low-cost detection scheme for train integrity detection. However, as an external auxiliary system of CTCS, GNSS may be influenced by external environments, such as uncertainty of wireless communication channels, which may lead to the failure of communication and positioning. In order to guarantee the reliability and safety of train operation, a risk analysis method of train integrity detection based on PRISM is proposed in this article. First, we analyze the risk factors (in GNSS communication process and the on-board communication process) and model them. Then, we evaluate the performance of the model in PRISM based on the field data. Finally, we discuss how these risk factors influence the train integrity detection process.

  2. Risk Analysis as Regulatory Science: Toward The Establishment of Standards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murakami, Michio

    2016-09-01

    Understanding how to establish standards is essential for risk communication and also provides perspectives for further study. In this paper, the concept of risk analysis as regulatory science for the establishment of standards is demonstrated through examples of standards for evacuation and provisional regulation values in foods and drinking water. Moreover, academic needs for further studies related to standards are extracted. The concepts of the traditional 'Standard I', which has a paternalistic orientation, and 'Standard II', established through stakeholder consensus, are then systemized by introducing the current status of the new standards-related movement that developed after the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident, and the perspectives of the standards are discussed. Preparation of standards on the basis of stakeholder consensus through intensive risk dialogue before a potential nuclear power plant accident is suggested to be a promising approach to ensure a safe society and enhance subjective well-being. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press.

  3. Path analysis of risk factors leading to premature birth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fields, S J; Livshits, G; Sirotta, L; Merlob, P

    1996-01-01

    The present study tested whether various sociodemographic, anthropometric, behavioral, and medical/physiological factors act in a direct or indirect manner on the risk of prematurity using path analysis on a sample of Israeli births. The path model shows that medical complications, primarily toxemia, chorioammionitis, and a previous low birth weight delivery directly and significantly act on the risk of prematurity as do low maternal pregnancy weight gain and ethnicity. Other medical complications, including chronic hypertension, preclampsia, and placental abruption, although significantly correlated with prematurity, act indirectly on prematurity through toxemia. The model further shows that the commonly accepted sociodemographic, anthropometric, and behavioral risk factors act by modifying the development of medical complications that lead to prematurity as opposed to having a direct effect on premature delivery. © 1996 Wiley-Liss, Inc. Copyright © 1996 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  4. Nuclear energy: public controversies and the analysis of risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sills, D.L.

    1984-01-01

    Energy is a social concept, the product of social, economic, and political processes that define certain raw materials as resources and thus convert them into usable energy. Like all social concepts, energy is controversial. Out of a wide range of controversies, three are selected for analysis here: (1) the relationship of nuclear power systems to nuclear weapons proliferation; (2) the risks of terrorism and sabotage associated with the operation of nuclear power facilities, including threats to civil liberties; and (3) the problems associated with the long-term management of radioactive wastes. The final section of the paper describes various modes of analyzing risks and the perception of risks. It is concluded that it may take many decades to learn whether nuclear energy is as natural a source of electrical power as wells are of drinking water, or whether nuclear energy is a horror that mankind in the 1980s or 1990s took a hard look at and then backed away. (author)

  5. HSE assessment of explosion risk analysis in offshore safety cases

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brighton, P.W.M.; Fearnley, P.J.; Brearley, I.G. [Health and Safety Executive, Bootle (United Kingdom). Offshore Safety Div.

    1995-12-31

    In the past two years HSE has assessed around 250 Safety Cases for offshore oil and gas installations, building up a unique overview of the current state of the art on fire and explosion risk assessment. This paper reviews the explosion risk methods employed, focusing on the aspects causing most difficulty for assessment and acceptance of Safety Cases. Prediction of overpressures in offshore explosions has been intensively researched in recent years but the justification of the means of prevention, control and mitigation of explosions often depends on much additional analysis of the frequency and damage potential of explosions. This involves a number of factors, the five usually considered being: leak sizes; gas dispersion; ignition probabilities; the frequency distribution of explosion strength; and the prediction of explosion damage. Sources of major uncertainty in these factors and their implications for practical risk management decisions are discussed. (author)

  6. Estudo da presença de fatores de riscos intrínsecos para quedas, em idosos institucionalizados Study of intrinsic risk factors for falls in institutionalized elderly people

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruth Losada de Menezes

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available Esta pesquisa teve como objetivo identificar a presença de fatores intrínsecos que predispõem a quedas em idosos moradores em instituições de longa permanência na cidade de Goiânia (GO. Trata-se de estudo descritivo transversal realizado em seis instituições de longa permanência para idosos existentes na cidade de Goiânia. A amostra da investigação constou de 95 idosos que atenderam aos critérios de inclusão e exclusão. Utilizou-se um questionário contendo dados clínicos relacionados às condições de saúde-doença; dados cognitivos; avaliação da capacidade para as atividades básicas de vida diária e avaliação do equilíbrio e marcha. Os idosos avaliados, no geral, apresentam vários fatores de risco, apontados pela literatura, para quedas, tais como: relato de dificuldade motora em membros inferiores (90%, déficit visual (81,1%, uso de três ou mais medicamentos (59,7%, suspeita de depressão (37,9%, falta de equilíbrio em apoio unipodal (37,9% e altura do passo anormalmente diminuída (32,6%. As informações obtidas nos permitem apontar condições determinantes que aumentam a possibilidade dos eventos queda acontecerem na amostra estudada, sinalizando à necessidade de que estratégias de promoção de saúde, prevenção de agravos e reabilitação devam ser tomadas.The objective of this research was to identify intrinsic risk factors that predispose elderly people living in long-term institutions in the city of Goiânia (GO to falls. The present descriptive transversal study was carried out in six long-term institutions for seniors in the city of Goiânia. The investigated sample consisted of 95 elderly that fitted the inclusion and exclusion criteria. A questionnaire was used for collecting clinical data related to health-disease conditions; cognitive data; capacity to develop basic daily life activities and equilibrium and gait. In general terms, as pointed out the literature, the examined elderly presented

  7. Debris Flow Risk Management Framework and Risk Analysis in Taiwan, A Preliminary Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsao, Ting-Chi; Hsu, Wen-Ko; Chiou, Lin-Bin; Cheng, Chin-Tung; Lo, Wen-Chun; Chen, Chen-Yu; Lai, Cheng-Nong; Ju, Jiun-Ping

    2010-05-01

    Taiwan is located on a seismically active mountain belt between the Philippine Sea plate and Eurasian plate. After 1999's Chi-Chi earthquake (Mw=7.6), landslide and debris flow occurred frequently. In Aug. 2009, Typhoon Morakot struck Taiwan and numerous landslides and debris flow events, some with tremendous fatalities, were observed. With limited resources, authorities should establish a disaster management system to cope with slope disaster risks more effectively. Since 2006, Taiwan's authority in charge of debris flow management, the Soil and Water Conservation Bureau (SWCB), completed the basic investigation and data collection of 1,503 potential debris flow creeks around Taiwan. During 2008 and 2009, a debris flow quantitative risk analysis (QRA) framework, based on landslide risk management framework of Australia, was proposed and conducted on 106 creeks of the 30 villages with debris flow hazard history. Information and value of several types of elements at risk (bridge, road, building and crop) were gathered and integrated into a GIS layer, with the vulnerability model of each elements at risk applied. Through studying the historical hazard events of the 30 villages, numerical simulations of debris flow hazards with different magnitudes (5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 years return period) were conducted, the economic losses and fatalities of each scenario were calculated for each creek. When taking annual exceeding probability into account, the annual total risk of each creek was calculated, and the results displayed on a debris flow risk map. The number of fatalities and frequency were calculated, and the F-N curves of 106 creeks were provided. For F-N curves, the individual risk to life per year of 1.0E-04 and slope of 1, which matched with international standards, were considered to be an acceptable risk. Applying the results of the 106 creeks onto the F-N curve, they were divided into 3 categories: Unacceptable, ALARP (As Low As Reasonable Practicable) and

  8. Risk analysis of underground infrastructures in urban areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cagno, Enrico; De Ambroggi, Massimiliano; Grande, Ottavio; Trucco, Paolo

    2011-01-01

    The paper presents an integrated approach for vulnerability and resilience analysis for underground infrastructures, i.e. a societal risk analysis of the failures of underground services for an urban area. The approach is based on the detailed study of (1) domino-effects for the components of a single infrastructure and for a given set of infrastructures interoperated and/or belonging to the same area; (2) risk and vulnerability analysis of a given area; (3) identification of a set of intervention guidelines, in order to improve the overall system resilience. The use of an integrated (interoperability and area) approach, breaking down the analysis area extent into sub-areas and assessing the dependencies among sub-areas both in terms of interoperability and damage propagation of critical infrastructures, demonstrates a useful advantage in terms of resilience analysis, more consistent with the 'zoned' nature of failures of the underground infrastructures. An applied case, describing the interoperability and damage propagation analysis with the evaluation of time-dependency for the infrastructures and targets and of different kinds of interventions of the underground infrastructures of a town, is presented for this purpose.

  9. New challenges on uncertainty propagation assessment of flood risk analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martins, Luciano; Aroca-Jiménez, Estefanía; Bodoque, José M.; Díez-Herrero, Andrés

    2016-04-01

    Natural hazards, such as floods, cause considerable damage to the human life, material and functional assets every year and around the World. Risk assessment procedures has associated a set of uncertainties, mainly of two types: natural, derived from stochastic character inherent in the flood process dynamics; and epistemic, that are associated with lack of knowledge or the bad procedures employed in the study of these processes. There are abundant scientific and technical literature on uncertainties estimation in each step of flood risk analysis (e.g. rainfall estimates, hydraulic modelling variables); but very few experience on the propagation of the uncertainties along the flood risk assessment. Therefore, epistemic uncertainties are the main goal of this work, in particular,understand the extension of the propagation of uncertainties throughout the process, starting with inundability studies until risk analysis, and how far does vary a proper analysis of the risk of flooding. These methodologies, such as Polynomial Chaos Theory (PCT), Method of Moments or Monte Carlo, are used to evaluate different sources of error, such as data records (precipitation gauges, flow gauges...), hydrologic and hydraulic modelling (inundation estimation), socio-demographic data (damage estimation) to evaluate the uncertainties propagation (UP) considered in design flood risk estimation both, in numerical and cartographic expression. In order to consider the total uncertainty and understand what factors are contributed most to the final uncertainty, we used the method of Polynomial Chaos Theory (PCT). It represents an interesting way to handle to inclusion of uncertainty in the modelling and simulation process. PCT allows for the development of a probabilistic model of the system in a deterministic setting. This is done by using random variables and polynomials to handle the effects of uncertainty. Method application results have a better robustness than traditional analysis

  10. Estudo da erosão na microbacia do Ceveiro (Piracicaba, SP: I - Estimativa das taxas de perda de solo e estudo de sensibilidade dos fatores do modelo EUPS Erosion study in the Ceveiro Watershed (Piracicaba, SP.: I - Estimation o soil loss rates and sensitivity factor analysis of the USLE model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mara de Andrade Marinho Weill

    2008-04-01

    estimativas foi muito menor do que a do fator topográfico. A aplicação da EUPS permitiu estimar a expectativa de erosão do solo na área de estudo. O uso de geotecnologias e de métodos geoestatísticos de análise mostrou-se uma abordagem promissora nos estudos de erosão.Accelerated soil erosion is a serious global problem that degrades agriculture lands. Since erosion research is normally expensive and time-consuming, the use of models allows to estimate soil losses at locations and under conditions not represented directly in the research. The objective of this study was to estimate the soil erosion in an area intensively cultivated with sugarcane near the city of Piracicaba, São Paulo, contributing to diagnose the current land uses aimed at controlling erosion. The study was carried out based on a geographic information system using the universal soil loss equation (USLE to estimate erosion. A specific objective of the study was to analyze the influence of K (soil erodibility, LS (topography, C (crop use and management and P (erosion control practices factors in soil loss estimates. The results show an intense soil degradation process by accelerated erosion in nearly two-thirds of the studied area, mainly occupied by sugarcane. In these areas, the average estimated soil loss rate of 58 Mg ha-1 year-1 is equivalent to nearly four times the indicated average upper tolerance limit. In the remaining areas occupied by forest, riparian vegetation, afforestation and pasture, the estimated soil loss rates are low, around 2 Mg ha-1 year-1 , below the tolerance values. The model factor sensitivity analysis revealed that under the same weather condition (constant R factor, factors C and P (crop management and coverage and erosion control practices defined the magnitude of the soil losses, whether in units, tens or hundreds of Mg ha-1 year-1. For a same category of land use (factors C and P constant, the LS factor (topographic explained most of the observed variation. The

  11. The risk communication using the special website of the society of risk analysis for the Great East Japan Earthquake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsubokawa, Hiroaki; Nagasaka, Toshinari; Sunaga, Yohei; Lee, Taiyoung; Taguchi, Hitoshi; Usuda, Yuichiro

    2011-01-01

    The Society for Risk Analysis Japan built the special website that reply to the people who are concerning the risk related to the Great East Japan Earthquake occurred on March 11, 2011. Although, there were many risk communication activities between the specialists of the risk research and citizens on the website, there are some significant problems for the risk communication using the website. This report summarizes the result of our activity. (author)

  12. The approach to risk analysis in three industries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garrick, B.J.

    1991-01-01

    It is the purpose of this paper to review how risk and safety analysis is performed in the three major industries of nuclear power, space flight, and chemical and petroleum processes. The underlying reason for such a review is the belief that efficiencies and safety enhancements may result from a greater exchange of risk assessment technology between these industries. The thrust of this discussion related to the engineered systems involved in the three industries. The industries are very different. The chemical industry epitomizes the highly competitive private sector and its bottom-line emphasis; the nuclear power industry is unique by the degree to which it is regulated; and the space industry is essentially a government business just beginning to have commercial implications. Institutional differences are extreme; however, from a societal needs, and their safety implications have a far reaching impact on public opinion and support. In reviewing the risk and safety analysis activities, particular attention is given to the use of such quantitative approaches as probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) as it has evolved in the nuclear power industry

  13. Risk-benefit analysis of 18FDG PET cancer screening

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murano, Takeshi; Daisaki, Hiromitsu; Terauchi, Takashi; Iinuma, Takeshi; Tateno, Yukio; Tateishi, Ukihide; Kato, Kazuaki; Inoue, Tomio

    2008-01-01

    The benefits of 18 F-fluorodeoxyglucose ( 18 FDG) positron emission tomography (PET) cancer screening are expected to include a large population of examinees and are intended for a healthy group. Therefore, we attempted to determine the benefit/risk ratio, estimated risk of radiation exposure, and benefit of cancer detection. We used software that embodied the method of the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) to calculate the average duration of life of radiation exposure. We calculated the lifesaving person years of benefit to be obtained by 18 FDG PET cancer screening detection. We also calculated the benefit/risk ratio using life-shortening and lifesaving person years. According to age, the benefit/risk ratio was more than 1 at 35-39 years old for males and 30-34 years old for females. 18 FDG PET cancer screening also is effective for examinees older than this. A risk-benefit analysis of 18 FDG-PET/computed tomography (CT) cancer screening will be necessary in the future. (author)

  14. Environmental risk analysis for offshore oil and gas activities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brude, Odd Willy; Aspholm, Ole O.; Rudberg, Anders [Det Norske Veritas (Brazil)

    2008-07-01

    Offshore oil and gas activities always have a risk for environmental impact due to potential accidental releases of oil and gas. The environmental risk can be calculated as a combination of the frequency of such accidents to occur and their environmental consequences in terms of environmental damage to habitats or populations. A method for conducting environmental risk analysis has been in use in Norwegian offshore waters for a decade, with a continuously refinement of methodology over the past years. This paper outlines the principles in the MIRA method and gives examples and discussions regarding use in different environmental compartments. The risk assessment starts with identification of oil spill scenarios with frequencies of potential release rates and spill durations. The next step is to model the oil drift for each accidental oil spill scenario. Drift and fate of oil is modeled probabilistic. Based on the oil spill scenarios and their probability of oil pollution, the potential environmental damage is quantified for each scenario. The endpoint of environmental damage is reduction of a population and the resulting recovery time (in years) for various species and habitats. Environmental risk levels are then evaluated against the operating companies' environmental acceptance criteria. (author)

  15. Uncertainty analysis in the applications of nuclear probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Le Duy, T.D.

    2011-01-01

    The aim of this thesis is to propose an approach to model parameter and model uncertainties affecting the results of risk indicators used in the applications of nuclear Probabilistic Risk assessment (PRA). After studying the limitations of the traditional probabilistic approach to represent uncertainty in PRA model, a new approach based on the Dempster-Shafer theory has been proposed. The uncertainty analysis process of the proposed approach consists in five main steps. The first step aims to model input parameter uncertainties by belief and plausibility functions according to the data PRA model. The second step involves the propagation of parameter uncertainties through the risk model to lay out the uncertainties associated with output risk indicators. The model uncertainty is then taken into account in the third step by considering possible alternative risk models. The fourth step is intended firstly to provide decision makers with information needed for decision making under uncertainty (parametric and model) and secondly to identify the input parameters that have significant uncertainty contributions on the result. The final step allows the process to be continued in loop by studying the updating of beliefs functions given new data. The proposed methodology was implemented on a real but simplified application of PRA model. (author)

  16. Schedule Risk Analysis Of Southern Mainway Construction In Jember Regency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Susilo, K.; Wiguna, I. P. A.; Adi, T. J. W.

    2017-11-01

    In Jember Regency, it has been built Southern Cross Road (JLS) as part of regional project. On the implementation of previous construction, there were still some events which gave negative impact to the project. The purpose of this research is to analyze risk and its effect on schedule at the construction phase of JLS at Jember Regency. Risk identification process is carried out by site survey, literature studies and supporting data. The use of Probability and Impact Matrix were aimed to obtain the level of risk. Based on the analysis, it was obtained six highest risk that could affecting schedule, such as difficult access locations, heavy rains, increases of material price, broken road pavement work, change order, and work accident. Risk responses were proposed by applying agreement to guarantee stock and price of materials, prioritized drainage, and constructing bridge to solve difficult access. An intense coordination in the site, routine checks of quality, manufacturing of retailing walls were also needed to reduce possibility of distruption to pavement work. To avoid work accident, it is needed to socialize about harsh terrain condition, mutual allertness among supervisor, worker and the others, and also all personals must comply with savety rules.

  17. Occupational and Cost Risk : Critical Analysis of Monetization Policy Risk Approach to the Spanish Law Standards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Antônio César Villatore

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The problem that surrounds the issue of occupational risk is a phenomenon that plagues every society, because the work is a central element and gives force to the economy. In this sense, the exposure of workers to harmful activities that may cause damage to your health and physical and mental integrity, based on the monetization policy of risk adopted by the Brazilian legal system, can import costs to the workers, employers, the state and society. Thus, the present study seeks, from the labor law analysis and the use of concepts of Economic Analysis of Law, attest that the social costs caused by worker exposure to risk is, fallaciously shown, in a short-term smaller than that of prevention, but in the long run can import the burden on all parties of the employment relationship as well as the State and society, being necessary to use economic and legal measures for changing the monetization of risk policy, as in alien systems, as the Spanish Law analyzed.

  18. Common pitfalls in statistical analysis: Odds versus risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranganathan, Priya; Aggarwal, Rakesh; Pramesh, C. S.

    2015-01-01

    In biomedical research, we are often interested in quantifying the relationship between an exposure and an outcome. “Odds” and “Risk” are the most common terms which are used as measures of association between variables. In this article, which is the fourth in the series of common pitfalls in statistical analysis, we explain the meaning of risk and odds and the difference between the two. PMID:26623395

  19. Development of seismic risk analysis methodologies at JAERI

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tanaka, T.; Abe, K.; Ebisawa, K.; Oikawa, T.

    1988-01-01

    The usefulness of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) is recognized worldwidely for balanced design and regulation of nuclear power plants. In Japan, the Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute (JAERI) has been engaged in developing methodologies necessary for carrying out PSA. The research and development program was started in 1980. In those days the effort was only for internal initiator PSA. In 1985 the program was expanded so as to include external event analysis. Although this expanded program is to cover various external initiators, the current effort is dedicated for seismic risk analysis. There are three levels of seismic PSA, similarly to internal initiator PSA: Level 1: Evaluation of core damage frequency, Level 2: Evaluation of radioactive release frequency and source terms, and Level 3: Evaluation of environmental consequence. In the JAERI's program, only the methodologies for level 1 seismic PSA are under development. The methodology development for seismic risk analysis is divided into two phases. The Phase I study is to establish a whole set of simple methodologies based on currently available data. In the Phase II, Sensitivity study will be carried out to identify the parameters whose uncertainty may result in lage uncertainty in seismic risk, and For such parameters, the methodology will be upgraded. Now the Phase I study has almost been completed. In this report, outlines of the study and some of its outcomes are described

  20. Cost Risk Analysis Based on Perception of the Engineering Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dean, Edwin B.; Wood, Darrell A.; Moore, Arlene A.; Bogart, Edward H.

    1986-01-01

    In most cost estimating applications at the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC), it is desirable to present predicted cost as a range of possible costs rather than a single predicted cost. A cost risk analysis generates a range of cost for a project and assigns a probability level to each cost value in the range. Constructing a cost risk curve requires a good estimate of the expected cost of a project. It must also include a good estimate of expected variance of the cost. Many cost risk analyses are based upon an expert's knowledge of the cost of similar projects in the past. In a common scenario, a manager or engineer, asked to estimate the cost of a project in his area of expertise, will gather historical cost data from a similar completed project. The cost of the completed project is adjusted using the perceived technical and economic differences between the two projects. This allows errors from at least three sources. The historical cost data may be in error by some unknown amount. The managers' evaluation of the new project and its similarity to the old project may be in error. The factors used to adjust the cost of the old project may not correctly reflect the differences. Some risk analyses are based on untested hypotheses about the form of the statistical distribution that underlies the distribution of possible cost. The usual problem is not just to come up with an estimate of the cost of a project, but to predict the range of values into which the cost may fall and with what level of confidence the prediction is made. Risk analysis techniques that assume the shape of the underlying cost distribution and derive the risk curve from a single estimate plus and minus some amount usually fail to take into account the actual magnitude of the uncertainty in cost due to technical factors in the project itself. This paper addresses a cost risk method that is based on parametric estimates of the technical factors involved in the project being costed. The engineering

  1. Valores humanos e interesses vocacionais: um estudo correlacional Intereses vocacionales y valores humanos: un estudio correlacional Human values and vocational interests: a correlated analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valdiney Veloso Gouveia

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available Este estudo teve como objetivo principal identificar em que medida os interesses vocacionais dos adolescentes se relacionam com os valores que indicam como prioritários em suas vidas. Para alcançar este objetivo contou-se com a participação de 307 estudantes do ensino médio (público e privado de João Pessoa (PB, com idade média de 16 anos (DP = 1,60. Os participantes responderam ao Inventário de Interesse Vocacional (UNIACT e ao Questionário dos Valores Básicos (QVB. Os resultados demonstraram que os interesses vocacionais e os valores humanos estão correlacionados. Tais achados são discutidos em função das congruências entre as características descritoras de ambos os construtos.Este estudio tuvo como objetivo principal identificar en qué medida los intereses vocacionales de los adolescentes se relacionan con los valores que éstos indican como prioritarios en sus vidas. Para lograr este objetivo, se ha tenido en cuenta una muestra de 307 estudiantes de bachillerato (escuelas públicas y privadas de João Pessoa (PB, con edad promedia de 16 años (DT = 1.60. Los participantes contestaron al Inventario de Interés Vocacional (UNIACT y al Cuestionario de los Valores Básicos (CVB. Los resultados indicaron que los intereses vocacionales y los valores humanos están correlacionados. Estos hallazgos son discutidos de acuerdo con las congruencias entre las características descriptoras de ambos constructos.The manner students' vocational interests are linked to their value priorities is analyzed. Participants comprised 307 undergraduate students, mean age 16 years (SD = 1.60, from private and public schools of João Pessoa PB Brazil. They answered the Vocational Interest Inventory (UNIACT, Basic Value Survey (BVS, and demographic questions. Results show correlations between vocational interests and human values. These findings may be discussed as a result of the congruencies among the descriptive traits of the two constructs.

  2. Radiation risk analysis of tritium in PWR plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang Maochun; Wang Shimin

    1999-03-01

    Tritium is a common radionuclide in PWR nuclear power plant. In the normal operation conditions, its radiation risk to plant workers is the internal radiation exposure when tritium existing in air as HTO (hydrogen tritium oxide) is breathed in. As the HTO has the same physical and chemical characteristics as water, the main way that HTO entering the air is by evaporation. There are few opening systems in Nuclear Power Plant, the radiation risk of tritium mainly exists near the area of spent fuel pit and reactor pit. The highest possible radiation risk it may cause--the maximum concentration in air is the level when equilibrium is established between water and air phases for tritium. The author analyzed the relationship among the concentration of HTO in water, in air and the water temperature when equilibrium is established, the equilibrated HTO concentration in air increases with HTO concentration in water and water temperature. The analysis revealed that at 30 degree C, the equilibrated HTO concentration in air might reach 1 DAC (derived air concentration) when the HTO concentration in water is 28 GBq/m 3 . Owing to the operation of plant ventilation systems and the existence of moisture in the input air of the ventilation, the practical tritium concentration in air is much lower than its equilibrated levels, the radiation risk of tritium in PWR plant is quite limited. In 1997, Daya Bay Nuclear Power Plant's practical monitoring result of the HTO concentration in the air of the nuclear island and the urine of workers supported this conclusion. Based on this analysis, some suggestions to the reduction of tritium radiation risk were made

  3. Risk factors for esophageal cancer in non-smokers and non-drinkers: a case-control study in Uruguay Fatores de risco para o câncer esofágico em não usuários de tabaco e bebida alcoólica: um estudo caso-controle no Uruguai

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alvaro L. Ronco

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available In order to analyze possible associations of lifestyle factors with esophageal cancer among non-smokers and non-drinkers, the authors carried out the present study. Special emphasis was placed on the analysis of "mate" (infusion of the herb Ilex paraguariensis drinking, which has been associated with most cancers of the upper aerodigestive tract. The study was conducted at the Instituto Nacional de Oncología in Montevideo, Uruguay. Data corresponded to 73 esophageal cancer cases and 219 controls. A detailed questionnaire included sections on sociodemographic variables, occupation, family history of cancer, "mate" drinking, and a restricted list of dietary items including: red meat, processed meat, salted meat, barbecue, milk, fresh vegetables and fruits. Odds ratios (ORs were estimated by unconditional logistic regression, adjusting for major potential confounders, including age, sex, education, urban/rural status and region of birth. Moderate increases in risk were observed for: daily "mate" consumption (OR=2.2, age of quitting (OR=2.02, duration (OR=2.49 and intensity (OR=1.91, most of which were statistically significant. Consequently, our report demonstrates a particular role for "mate" consumption on esophageal cancer in Uruguay, regardless of other well-known risk factors.Os autores realizaram o presente estudo para analisar possíveis associações de fatores de estilo de vida com o câncer esofágico em não usuários de tabaco e bebida alcoólica. Foi especialmente enfatizada a análise do "mate" (infusão da erva Ilex paraguariensis, que tem sido associado à maioria dos cânceres do trato aerodigestivo. O estudo foi realizado no Instituto Nacional de Oncología em Montevidéu, Uruguai. Os dados correspondem a 73 casos de câncer esofágico e 219 controles. Um detalhado questionário incluiu seções de variáveis sócio-demográficas, ocupação, história familiar de câncer, consumo de "mate" e uma relação restritiva de itens da

  4. Lifetime risks of kidney donation: a medical decision analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiberd, Bryce A; Tennankore, Karthik K

    2017-09-01

    This study estimated the potential loss of life and the lifetime cumulative risk of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) from live kidney donation. Markov medical decision analysis. USA. 40-year-old live kidney donors of both sexes and black/white race. Live donor nephrectomy. Potential remaining life years lost, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) lost and added lifetime cumulative risk of ESRD from donation. Overall 0.532-0.884 remaining life years were lost from donating a kidney. This was equivalent to 1.20%-2.34% of remaining life years (or 0.76%-1.51% remaining QALYs). The risk was higher in male and black individuals. The study showed that 1%-5% of average-age current live kidney donors might develop ESRD as a result of nephrectomy. The added risk of ESRD resulted in a loss of only 0.126-0.344 remaining life years. Most of the loss of life was predicted to be associated with chronic kidney disease (CKD) not ESRD. Most events occurred 25 or more years after donation. Reducing the increased risk of death associated with CKD had a modest overall effect on the per cent loss of remaining life years (0.72%-1.9%) and QALYs (0.58%-1.33%). Smoking and obesity reduced life expectancy and increased overall lifetime risks of ESRD in non-donors. However the percentage loss of remaining life years from donation was not very different in those with or without these risk factors. Live kidney donation may reduce life expectancy by 0.5-1 year in most donors. The development of ESRD in donors may not be the only measure of risk as most of the predicted loss of life predates ESRD. The study identifies the potential importance of following donors and treating risk factors aggressively to prevent ESRD and to improve donor survival. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  5. Risco de suicídio e comportamentos de risco à saúde em jovens de 18 a 24 anos: um estudo descritivo Suicide risk and health risk behavior among youth between the ages of 18 and 24 years: a descriptive study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liliane da Costa Ores

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available O objetivo foi avaliar risco de suicídio e comportamentos de risco em jovens. Estudo transversal na zona urbana de Pelotas, Rio Grande do Sul, Brasil, realizado por amostragem sistemática. Foram incluídos jovens de 18 a 24 anos, com capacidade cognitiva e que assinaram termo de consentimento. Foram aferidos risco de suicídio (MINI; comportamentos de risco (YRBSS; abuso/dependência de substâncias (ASSIST; e nível socioeconômico (ABEP. Os dados foram analisados no programa SPSS. A amostra constituiu-se de 1560 jovens e a prevalência de risco de suicídio foi de 8,6%. O risco de suicídio foi associado com: ter sofrido acidente com necessidade de ir ao pronto-socorro (p = 0,011, ter entrado em briga com agressão física (p = 0,016, ter carregado arma branca (p = 0,001 e arma de fogo (p The aim of this study was to assess suicide risk and risk behavior in young people. A cross-sectional study in the urban area of Pelotas, Rio Grande do Sul State, Brazil was performed using systematic sampling with young people between the ages of 18 to 24 years. We measured the risk of suicide (MINI, behavior (YRBSS, abuse/substance dependence (ASSIST and socioeconomic status (ABEP. Data was analyzed using SPSS software. The sample consisted of 1,560 young people and the prevalence of suicide risk was 8.6%. Suicide risk was associated with: having suffered an accident that required a visit to the emergency room (p = 0.011, fighting (p = 0.016, carrying a weapon (p = 0.001 and carrying a firearm (p < 0.001, substance abuse/dependence (p < 0.001, not having used a condom during the last sexual relationship (p = 0.025, not having a steady partner (p < 0.001 and having sex with five or more people (p = 0.018. Young people that present risk behavior also represent a suicide risk.

  6. Analysis of nasopharyngeal carcinoma risk factors with Bayesian networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aussem, Alex; de Morais, Sérgio Rodrigues; Corbex, Marilys

    2012-01-01

    We propose a new graphical framework for extracting the relevant dietary, social and environmental risk factors that are associated with an increased risk of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) on a case-control epidemiologic study that consists of 1289 subjects and 150 risk factors. This framework builds on the use of Bayesian networks (BNs) for representing statistical dependencies between the random variables. We discuss a novel constraint-based procedure, called Hybrid Parents and Children (HPC), that builds recursively a local graph that includes all the relevant features statistically associated to the NPC, without having to find the whole BN first. The local graph is afterwards directed by the domain expert according to his knowledge. It provides a statistical profile of the recruited population, and meanwhile helps identify the risk factors associated to NPC. Extensive experiments on synthetic data sampled from known BNs show that the HPC outperforms state-of-the-art algorithms that appeared in the recent literature. From a biological perspective, the present study confirms that chemical products, pesticides and domestic fume intake from incomplete combustion of coal and wood are significantly associated with NPC risk. These results suggest that industrial workers are often exposed to noxious chemicals and poisonous substances that are used in the course of manufacturing. This study also supports previous findings that the consumption of a number of preserved food items, like house made proteins and sheep fat, are a major risk factor for NPC. BNs are valuable data mining tools for the analysis of epidemiologic data. They can explicitly combine both expert knowledge from the field and information inferred from the data. These techniques therefore merit consideration as valuable alternatives to traditional multivariate regression techniques in epidemiologic studies. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Decision theory, the context for risk and reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaplan, S.

    1985-01-01

    According to this model of the decision process then, the optimum decision is that option having the largest expected utility. This is the fundamental model of a decision situation. It is necessary to remark that in order for the model to represent a real-life decision situation, it must include all the options present in that situation, including, for example, the option of not deciding--which is itself a decision, although usually not the optimum one. Similarly, it should include the option of delaying the decision while the authors gather further information. Both of these options have probabilities, outcomes, impacts, and utilities like any option and should be included explicitly in the decision diagram. The reason for doing a quantitative risk or reliability analysis is always that, somewhere underlying there is a decision to be made. The decision analysis therefore always forms the context for the risk or reliability analysis, and this context shapes the form and language of that analysis. Therefore, they give in this section a brief review of the well-known decision theory diagram

  8. A comparison of integrated safety analysis and probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Damon, Dennis R.; Mattern, Kevin S.

    2013-01-01

    The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission conducted a comparison of two standard tools for risk informing the regulatory process, namely, the Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) and the Integrated Safety Analysis (ISA). PRA is a calculation of risk metrics, such as Large Early Release Frequency (LERF), and has been used to assess the safety of all commercial power reactors. ISA is an analysis required for fuel cycle facilities (FCFs) licensed to possess potentially critical quantities of special nuclear material. A PRA is usually more detailed and uses more refined models and data than an ISA, in order to obtain reasonable quantitative estimates of risk. PRA is considered fully quantitative, while most ISAs are typically only partially quantitative. The extension of PRA methodology to augment or supplant ISAs in FCFs has long been considered. However, fuel cycle facilities have a wide variety of possible accident consequences, rather than a few surrogates like LERF or core damage as used for reactors. It has been noted that a fuel cycle PRA could be used to better focus attention on the most risk-significant structures, systems, components, and operator actions. ISA and PRA both identify accident sequences; however, their treatment is quite different. ISA's identify accidents that lead to high or intermediate consequences, as defined in 10 Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) 70, and develop a set of Items Relied on For Safety (IROFS) to assure adherence to performance criteria. PRAs identify potential accident scenarios and estimate their frequency and consequences to obtain risk metrics. It is acceptable for ISAs to provide bounding evaluations of accident consequences and likelihoods in order to establish acceptable safety; but PRA applications usually require a reasonable quantitative estimate, and often obtain metrics of uncertainty. This paper provides the background, features, and methodology associated with the PRA and ISA. The differences between the

  9. Landslide risk analysis: a multi-disciplinary methodological approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Sterlacchini

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available This study describes an analysis carried out within the European community project "ALARM" (Assessment of Landslide Risk and Mitigation in Mountain Areas, 2004 on landslide risk assessment in the municipality of Corvara in Badia, Italy. This mountainous area, located in the central Dolomites (Italian Alps, poses a significant landslide hazard to several man-made and natural objects. Three parameters for determining risk were analysed as an aid to preparedness and mitigation planning: event occurrence probability, elements at risk, and the vulnerability of these elements. Initially, a landslide hazard scenario was defined; this step was followed by the identification of the potential vulnerable elements, by the estimation of the expected physical effects, due to the occurrence of a damaging phenomenon, and by the analysis of social and economic features of the area. Finally, a potential risk scenario was defined, where the relationships between the event, its physical effects, and its economic consequences were investigated. People and public administrators with training and experience in local landsliding and slope processes were involved in each step of the analysis.

    A "cause-effect" correlation was applied, derived from the "dose-response" equation initially used in the biological sciences and then adapted by economists for the assessment of environmental risks. The relationship was analysed from a physical point of view and the cause (the natural event was correlated to the physical effects, i.e. the aesthetic, functional, and structural damage. An economic evaluation of direct and indirect damage was carried out considering the assets in the affected area (i.e., tourist flows, goods, transport and the effect on other social and economic activities. This study shows the importance of indirect damage, which is as significant as direct damage. The total amount of direct damage was estimated in 8 913 000 €; on the contrary, indirect

  10. Landslide risk analysis: a multi-disciplinary methodological approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sterlacchini, S.; Frigerio, S.; Giacomelli, P.; Brambilla, M.

    2007-11-01

    This study describes an analysis carried out within the European community project "ALARM" (Assessment of Landslide Risk and Mitigation in Mountain Areas, 2004) on landslide risk assessment in the municipality of Corvara in Badia, Italy. This mountainous area, located in the central Dolomites (Italian Alps), poses a significant landslide hazard to several man-made and natural objects. Three parameters for determining risk were analysed as an aid to preparedness and mitigation planning: event occurrence probability, elements at risk, and the vulnerability of these elements. Initially, a landslide hazard scenario was defined; this step was followed by the identification of the potential vulnerable elements, by the estimation of the expected physical effects, due to the occurrence of a damaging phenomenon, and by the analysis of social and economic features of the area. Finally, a potential risk scenario was defined, where the relationships between the event, its physical effects, and its economic consequences were investigated. People and public administrators with training and experience in local landsliding and slope processes were involved in each step of the analysis. A "cause-effect" correlation was applied, derived from the "dose-response" equation initially used in the biological sciences and then adapted by economists for the assessment of environmental risks. The relationship was analysed from a physical point of view and the cause (the natural event) was correlated to the physical effects, i.e. the aesthetic, functional, and structural damage. An economic evaluation of direct and indirect damage was carried out considering the assets in the affected area (i.e., tourist flows, goods, transport and the effect on other social and economic activities). This study shows the importance of indirect damage, which is as significant as direct damage. The total amount of direct damage was estimated in 8 913 000 €; on the contrary, indirect damage ranged considerably

  11. Safety- and Risk Analysis Activities in Chemical Industry in Europe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kozine, Igor; Duijm, Nijs Jan; Lauridsen Kurt [Risoe National Laboratory, Roskilde (Denmark). Systems Analysis Department

    2001-07-01

    The current paper gives an overview of the legislation and the methods used in safety and risk management in the chemical industry within Europe and in particular within the European Union. The paper is based on a report that has been written for the SOS-1 project under the Nordic nuclear safety research (NKS). Safety- and risk-related matters in the process industry, in particular, in chemical, within the EU are subject to consideration at three levels: (1) EU legislation, (2) European/intemational standardisation, and (3) socio-economic analysis. EC Directives define the 'essential requirements', e.g., protection of health and safety, that must be fulfilled when goods are placed on the market or some industry is put into operation. The European standards bodies (CEN, CENELEC and ETSI) have the task of establishing the corresponding technical specifications, meeting the essential requirements of the Directives, compliance with which will provide a presumption of conformity with the essential requirements. Such specifications are referred to as 'harmonised standards'. Compliance with harmonised standards remains voluntary, and manufacturers are free to choose any other technical solution that provides compliance with the essential requirements. This view is stated in the 'New Approach' to technical harmonisation and standardisation (details can be found on the web page: http://europe.eu.int/comm/enterprise/newapproach/standardization/index .html). Standardisation as well as the regulation of technical risks is increasingly being undertaken at European or international level. The European legislator limits its role to the affirmation of overall objectives, and leaves it to the economic players to draw up the technical procedures and standards to specify in detail the ways and means of attaining them. Many countries have introduced requirements that new legislation and/or administrative regulations be subject to socio-economic analysis

  12. Risk Analysis of Fukushima Accident using MACCS2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Seunghee; Kim, Juyoul; Kim, Sukhoon; Kim, Juyub [FNC Technology Co. Ltd., Yongin (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-05-15

    It has been three years since Fukushima Daiichi accident had occurred. Many efforts have been done for a restoration, however, radioactive materials are still released resulting in a crucial additional damage to a human health and economics and the scale of damage is not much evaluated. Therefore, an estimation of damage degree caused by the released radioactive materials right after a nuclear accident is essential to cope with additional radioactive problems. Here, we report the risk analysis of Fukushima Dai-ichi accident using MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System 2 (MACCS2), which is the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC's) code for evaluating off-site consequences. It is used in level-3 Probabilistic Risk Analyses (PRA), for planning purposes, for cost-benefit analyses and so on. The purpose of this study is to estimate radiological doses and health risks of Fukushima Daiichi accident through short- and long-term of lifetime using MACCS2. In summary, the health risk for inhabitants near Fukushima Daiichi NPP has been evaluated by considering the long term radiation effect using MACCS2 code. The result indicates that the occurrence and death rate of the cancer have been increased by the radioactive materials released from Fukushima Daiichi accident. The result obtained in this study may provide new insights for taking action after the nuclear reactor accident to mitigate the released radioactive materials and to prepare the countermeasure.

  13. Mare Risk Analysis monitor; Monitor de analisis de riesgos mare

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fuente Prieto, I.; Alonso, P.; Carretero Fernandino, J. A. [Empresarios Agrupados, A. I.E. Madrid (Spain)

    2000-07-01

    The Nuclear Safety Council's requirement that Spanish power plants comply with the requirements of the Maintenance Rule associated with plant risk assessment during power operation, arising from the partial unavailability of systems due to the maintenance activities, has led to need for additional tools to facilitate compliance with said requirements. While the impact on risk produced by individual equipment unavailabilities can easily be evaluated, either qualitatively or quantitatively, the process becomes more complicated when un programmed unavailabilities simultaneously occur in various systems, making it necessary to evaluate their functional impact. It is especially complex in the case of support systems that can affect the functionality of multiple systems. In view of the above, a computer application has been developed that is capable of providing the operator with quick answers based on the specific plant model in order to allow fast risk assessment using the information compiled as part of the Probabilistic Safety Analysis. The paper describes the most important characteristics of this application and the basic design requirements of the MARE Risk Monitor. (Author)

  14. Flood Hazard and Risk Analysis in Urban Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Chen-Jia; Hsu, Ming-hsi; Teng, Wei-Hsien; Lin, Tsung-Hsien

    2017-04-01

    Typhoons always induce heavy rainfall during summer and autumn seasons in Taiwan. Extreme weather in recent years often causes severe flooding which result in serious losses of life and property. With the rapid industrial and commercial development, people care about not only the quality of life, but also the safety of life and property. So the impact of life and property due to disaster is the most serious problem concerned by the residents. For the mitigation of the disaster impact, the flood hazard and risk analysis play an important role for the disaster prevention and mitigation. In this study, the vulnerability of Kaohsiung city was evaluated by statistics of social development factor. The hazard factors of Kaohsiung city was calculated by simulated flood depth of six different return periods and four typhoon events which result in serious flooding in Kaohsiung city. The flood risk can be obtained by means of the flood hazard and social vulnerability. The analysis results provide authority to strengthen disaster preparedness and to set up more resources in high risk areas.

  15. Public transport risk assessment through fault tree analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Yaghoubpour

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available This study focused on the public transport risk assessment in District one of ​​Tehran through Fault Tree Analysis involving the three criteria of human, vehicle and road in Haddon matrix. In fact, it examined the factors contributing to the occurrence of road accidents at several urban black spots within District 1. Relying on road safety checklists and survey of experts, this study made an effort to help urban managers to assess the risks in the public transport and prevent road accidents. Finally, the risk identification and assessment of public transport in District one yielded several results to answer the research questions. The hypotheses analysis suggested that safety issues involved in public transport are concerned by urban managers. The key reactive measures are investigation of accidents, identification of causes and correction of black spots. In addition to high costs, however, the reactive measures give rise to multiple operational problems such as traffic navigation and guaranteeing user safety in every operation. The case study highlighted the same fact. The macro-level management in the metropolis of Tehran is critical. The urban road casualties and losses can be curtailed by preventive measures such as continuous assessment of road safety.

  16. Analysis on risk factors for post-stroke emotional incontinence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiao-chun ZHANG

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective To investigate the occurrence rate and related risk factors for post-stroke emotional incontinence (PSEI. Methods The clinical data [sex, age, body mass index (BMI, education, marital status, medical history (hypertension, heart disease, diabetes, hyperlipemia, smoking and drinking and family history of stroke] of 162 stroke patients were recorded. Serum homocysteine (Hcy level was examined. Head CT and/or MRI were used to indicate stroke subtype, site of lesion and number of lesion. Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders Fifth Edition (DSM-Ⅴ Chinese version and Hamilton Depression Rating Scale-17 Items (HAMD-17 were used to evaluate the degree of depression. House diagnostic standard was used to diagnose PSEI. Univariate and multivariate backward Logistic regression analysis was used to screen related risk factor for PSEI. Spearman rank correlation analysis was used to discuss the correlation between PSEI and post-stroke depression (PSD. Results Among 162 stroke patients, 12 cases were diagnosed as PSEI (7.41% . The ratio of age < 60 years in PSEI group was significantly higher than non-PSEI group (P = 0.045. The ratio of smoking in PSEI group was significantly lower than non-PSEI group (P = 0.036. Univariate and multivariate backward Logistic regression analysis showed age < 60 years was independent risk factor for PSEI (OR = 4.000, 95%CI: 1.149-13.924; P = 0.029. Ten cases were combined with PSD in 12 PSEI patients, and the co-morbidity rate of PSEI and PSD was83.33%. Spearman rank correlation analysis showed PSEI was positively related to PSD (rs = 0.305, P = 0.000. Conclusions PSEI is common affective disorder in stroke patients, which easily happens in patients under 60 years of age. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1672-6731.2017.12.010

  17. Incidence of infectious complications following tube thoracostomy with and without use of antibiotic therapy: meta-analysis study Incidência de complicações infecciosas pós-drenagem pleural fechada com e sem uso da antibioticoterapia: estudo de meta-análise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mauro José Fontelles

    2001-12-01

    Full Text Available Objective - Thoracic lesions and resulting complications have gained increased importance in literature because they present a serious problem despite the generalized use of antibiotic therapy. Our study, therefore, aims at obtaining better estimates regarding the benefits obtained using antibiotic therapy in patients with isolated thoracic trauma and who have undergone closed chest drainage. Methods - Eight prospective and randomized studies were selected and meta-analysis was used to statistically associate the results. Results - The results demonstrated a statistical significance which favored the use of antibiotic therapy in preventing pleural empyema and a 9.25 (IC 95% 2.85 - 30.01 total relative risk for patients who did not receive antibiotic therapy. The total risk regarding all the infectious complications that occurred was 4.29 (IC 95% 2.70 - 8.97. Conclusion - The results of this meta-analysis study showed that antibiotic therapy effectively reduces the incidence of infectious complications in patients with isolated thoracic trauma, who have undergone closed pleural drainage.Objetivo - A literatura aponta para a crescente importância das lesões torácicas com sua possíveis complicações e, apesar do uso generalizado da antibioticoterapia, estas continuam a ser um grave problema. Assim, o propósito do presente estudo, foi de desenvolver melhores estimativas da quantidade de benefícios quanto a utilização da antibioticoterapia nos pacientes com trauma isolado do tórax, submetidos, unicamente, à drenagem pleural fechada. Métodos - Através do estudo de meta-análise, oito trabalhos, prospectivos e randomizados, foram selecionados para associação de seus resultados dentro de um modelo de análise estatística quantitativa. Resultados - Os resultados mostraram uma significância estatística favorável ao uso da antibioticoterapia na prevenção do empiema pleural, com risco relativo total de 9,25 (IC 95% 2,85 - 30,01 para os

  18. French experience in seismic risk analysis and associated research works

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mohammadioun, B.

    1984-11-01

    This communication reviews the basic principles of the seismic risk analysis for nuclear installations in France practiced by the IPSN of the CEA. The presentation of each stage of the analysis includes an account of the methods used, the difficulties met, and a comparison with the recommendations of the AIEA-SG-S1. First, this paper deals with the sismotectonic analysis and with the definition of two reference earthquakes. Then, the calculation of the ground motion corresponding to the reference earthquakes is presented. A particular attention is paid to the problems of calculation of ground motion in the case of important earthquakes near active faults and to the effect of the soil on these movements. Finally, some criticisms, a description of studies undertaken at the moment and some recommendations are presented [fr

  19. Software requirements specification for the program analysis and control system risk management module

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    SCHAEFER, J.C.

    1999-01-01

    TWR Program Analysis and Control System Risk Module is used to facilitate specific data processes surrounding the Risk Management program of the Tank Waste Retrieval environment. This document contains the Risk Management system requirements of the database system

  20. Dynamic Positioning System (DPS) Risk Analysis Using Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thigpen, Eric B.; Boyer, Roger L.; Stewart, Michael A.; Fougere, Pete

    2017-01-01

    The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Safety & Mission Assurance (S&MA) directorate at the Johnson Space Center (JSC) has applied its knowledge and experience with Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to projects in industries ranging from spacecraft to nuclear power plants. PRA is a comprehensive and structured process for analyzing risk in complex engineered systems and/or processes. The PRA process enables the user to identify potential risk contributors such as, hardware and software failure, human error, and external events. Recent developments in the oil and gas industry have presented opportunities for NASA to lend their PRA expertise to both ongoing and developmental projects within the industry. This paper provides an overview of the PRA process and demonstrates how this process was applied in estimating the probability that a Mobile Offshore Drilling Unit (MODU) operating in the Gulf of Mexico and equipped with a generically configured Dynamic Positioning System (DPS) loses location and needs to initiate an emergency disconnect. The PRA described in this paper is intended to be generic such that the vessel meets the general requirements of an International Maritime Organization (IMO) Maritime Safety Committee (MSC)/Circ. 645 Class 3 dynamically positioned vessel. The results of this analysis are not intended to be applied to any specific drilling vessel, although provisions were made to allow the analysis to be configured to a specific vessel if required.

  1. Use Of Risk Analysis Fremeworks In Urban Flood Assessments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Madsen, Henrik

    with better decision support tools. Some of the developments are risk frameworks that encompass economic and/or ethic evaluation of climate change adaptation options and improved risk management. This line of development is based on a societal-based evaluation of maximizing the outcome for society...... in extreme precipitation has been observed, corresponding to an increase of design levels of at least 30 %. Analysis of climate change model output has given clear evidence, that further increases in extreme precipitation must be expected in the future due to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gasses...... and planned urban drainage solutions are shared between very different stakeholders and that current practices are leading to personal bankruptcy by those bearing the highest costs. Therefore solutions must be developed that are understandable and can be communicated between different stakeholders...

  2. Pharmacokinetics for regulatory risk analysis: the case of trichloroethylene.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogen, K T

    1988-12-01

    Physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models describing the uptake, metabolism, and excretion of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are now proposed for use in regulatory health-risk assessment. A steady-state analysis of one such model is shown to provide simple, convenient predicted relationships between an applied dose and the corresponding toxicologically effective, metabolized dose for certain VOCs like trichloroethylene (TCE). A version of this PBPK model was fit to data on human metabolism of TCE to urinary metabolites in chronically exposed workers, yielding a direct estimate of PBPK parameters governing human capacity to metabolize TCE. It is shown that this estimate is consistent with others based on experimental studies of TCE metabolism in humans exposed to TCE by inhalation for short periods. These results are applied to human cancer-risk assessment using rodent bioassay data on TCE-induced tumorigenesis.

  3. Risk prediction, safety analysis and quantitative probability methods - a caveat

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Critchley, O.H.

    1976-01-01

    Views are expressed on the use of quantitative techniques for the determination of value judgements in nuclear safety assessments, hazard evaluation, and risk prediction. Caution is urged when attempts are made to quantify value judgements in the field of nuclear safety. Criteria are given the meaningful application of reliability methods but doubts are expressed about their application to safety analysis, risk prediction and design guidances for experimental or prototype plant. Doubts are also expressed about some concomitant methods of population dose evaluation. The complexities of new designs of nuclear power plants make the problem of safety assessment more difficult but some possible approaches are suggested as alternatives to the quantitative techniques criticized. (U.K.)

  4. Generic Pest Risk Analysis for Potato in Nepal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baidya Nath Mahto

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Pest Risk Analysis (PRA is the process of evaluation for biological and economic evidences in order to determine whether a pest should be regulated under phyto-sanitary measures. The present mini review highlights the potential potato pathogen list recorded in Nepal harmful for potato production and productivity. At global scale altogether 135 potential quarantine pests (PQP for potato has been recorded, while in Nepal only 92 PQP were recorded. Out of those 52, 13 and 27 were fungi, bacteria and viruses respectively. Among the 92 PQP, 34, 30 and 13 were considered at high, medium and lower risk type pathogens for potato. There was no information available on other 15 PQP.

  5. Risk analysis of investments in-farm milk cooling tanks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danielle D. Sant´Anna

    2003-06-01

    Full Text Available A risk analysis for the installation of milk cooling tanks (250, 500 and 1,000 L on Brazilian rural properties was conducted in this study. The results showed that all investments had a return higher than the annual 12% minimum rate of attractiveness. There was a direct relationship between tank size and investment profitability and an inverse relation between size and risk. The probability of achieving returns lower than the opportunity cost was highest for the smallest tank (42%. In order to make the investment in small cooling tanks more attractive, the dairy industry incentives offered to farmers for supplying cooled milk could be increased. However, this approach might make investments in bulk milk collection by dairy companies infeasible. Thus, a recommendable strategy for a successful modernization of the Brazilian dairy sector’s inbound logistics would be to promote an increase in the volume of the milk produced per farm.

  6. A Thermorisk framework for the analysis of energy systems by combining risk and exergy analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cassetti, G.; Colombo, E.; Zio, E.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • An exergy based analysis for improving efficiency and safety of energy systems is presented. • The relation between thermodynamic parameters and the safety characteristics is identified. • Possible modifications in the process are indicated to improve the safety of the system. - Abstract: The impact of energy production, transformation and use on the environmental resources encourage to understand the mechanisms of resource degradation and to develop proper analyses to reduce the impact of the energy systems on the environment. At the technical level, most attempts for reducing the environmental impact of energy systems focus on the improvement of process efficiency. One way toward an integrated approach is that of adopting exergy analysis for assessing efficiency and test improving design and operation solutions. The paper presents an exergy based analysis for improving efficiency and safety of energy systems, named Thermorisk analysis. The purpose of the Thermorisk analysis is to supply information to control, and eventually reduce, the risk of the systems (i.e. risk of accidents) by acting on the thermodynamic parameters and safety characteristics in the same frame. The proper combination of exergy and risk analysis allows monitoring the effects of efficiency improvement on the safety of the systems analyzed. A case study is presented, showing the potential of the analysis to identify the relation between the exergy efficiency and the risk of the system analyzed, and the contribution of inefficiencies on the safety of the process. Possible modifications in the process are indicated to improve the safety of the system.

  7. Do we see how they perceive risk? An integrated analysis of risk perception and its effect on workplace safety behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xia, Nini; Wang, Xueqing; Griffin, Mark A; Wu, Chunlin; Liu, Bingsheng

    2017-09-01

    While risk perception is a key factor influencing safety behavior, the academia lacks specific attention to the ways that workers perceive risk, and thus little is known about the mechanisms through which different risk perceptions influence safety behavior. Most previous research in the workplace safety domain argues that people tend to perceive risk based on rational formulations of risk criticality. However, individuals' emotions can be also useful in understanding their perceptions. Therefore, this research employs an integrated analysis concerning the rational and emotional perspectives. Specifically, it was expected that the identified three rational ways of perceiving risk, i.e., perceived probability, severity, and negative utility, would influence the direct emotional risk perception. Furthermore, these four risk perceptions were all expected to positively but differently influence safety behavior. The hypotheses were tested using a sample of 120 construction workers. It was found that all the three rational risk perceptions significantly influenced workers' direct perception of risk that is mainly based on emotions. Furthermore, safety behavior among workers relied mainly on emotional perception but not rational calculations of risk. This research contributes to workplace safety research by highlighting the importance of integrating the emotional assessment of risk, especially when workers' risk perception and behavior are concerned. Suggested avenues for improving safety behavior through improvement in risk perception include being aware of the possibility of different ways of perceiving risk, promoting experience sharing and accident simulation, and uncovering risk information. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Eletromiografia laríngea e análise vocal em pacientes com Mal de Parkinson: estudo comparativo Laryngeal electromyography and acoustic voice analysis in Parkinson's disease: a comparative study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Paula Zarzur

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available A doença ou Mal de Parkinson se deve à deficiência dopaminérgica nos núcleos da base que geram alterações motoras. Comprometimento da comunicação verbal ocorre em 70 a 90% dos doentes. Existem poucas referências da aplicação da eletromiografia no estudo dos músculos laríngeos em pacientes com a doença de Parkinson. OBJETIVOS: Definir o padrão contrátil da musculatura intrínseca da laringe e sua correlação com a análise acústica vocal nos parkinsonianos. CASUÍSTICA E MÉTODO: Estudo prospectivo onde 26 adultos com o diagnóstico de Mal de Parkinson foram submetidos à eletromiografia laríngea e análise acústica vocal. Foram coletados potenciais de ação, tanto em repouso vocal quanto em fonação. Para a análise acústica da voz foram utilizados os programas VOXMETRIA® e GRAM 5.1.6®. RESULTADOS: O padrão eletromiográfico predominante no grupo estudo foi o de hipercontratibilidade (ou recrutamento aumentado durante repouso vocal que ocorreu em 73% dos indivíduos, sem que houvesse registro eletromiográfico de tremor. Quanto às características vocais, detectou-se a presença de tremor vocal no traçado do espectrograma (VOXMETRIA E GRAM e na avaliação perceptivo-auditiva em 69,5 % e 61 % dos sujeitos, respectivamente. CONCLUSÃO: O tremor vocal foi a característica acústica predominante no grupo estudado, sem que houvesse correlação eletromiográfica.Parkinson's disease (PD involves a progressive depletion of dopamine in the basal ganglia leading to motor alterations. Oral communication impairment occurs in 75% to 90% of patients and has been poorly studied. AIM: to asses laryngeal electromyography (LEMG patterns and correlate them to vocal analysis in patients with Parkinson's disease. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This is a prospective study. Twenty six adults with PD underwent laryngeal electromyography. Rest and phonation potentials were analyzed. VOXMETRIA® and GRAM 5.1.6. ® were used in acoustic analysis

  9. Risk analysis of the LHC underground area fire risk due to faulty electrical equipment

    CERN Document Server

    Harrison, A

    2007-01-01

    The European Organisation for Nuclear Research (CERN) in Geneva, Switzerland, is currently building the latest generation of particle accelerators, the LHC (Large Hadron Collider). The machine is housed in a circular tunnel of 27 km of circumference and is situated approximately 100 metres beneath the surface astride the Franco-Swiss border. Electrically induced fires in the LHC are a major concern, since an incident could present a threat to CERN personnel as well as the public. Moreover, the loss of equipment would result in significant costs and downtime. However, the amount of electrical equipment in the underground area required for operation, supervision and control of the machine is essential. Thus the present thesis is assessing the risk of fire due to faulty electrical equipment in both a qualitative as well as quantitative way. The recommendations following the qualitative analysis suggest the introduction of fire protection zones for the areas with the highest risk of fire due to a combination of p...

  10. Living with Risk in Everyday Life - A Comparative Analysis on Handling and Reflecting Risk in Everyday Actions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Elverdam, Beth; Hoel Felde, Lina Klara

    phones; chemicals in a nursery; elevated cholesterol was combined to analyse the concept of risk in everyday life. In-depth qualitative interviews with 46 people made it possible to analyse a general perception of risk in everyday life. Interviews were analysed using a phenomenological thematical content...... analysis. Results: Although risk is communicated in the media and by health personnel, and thus has a general presence in society, participants in everyday life place risk at the periphery of life. Risk is not part of their everyday reflections. When risk manifests itself in everyday life, it is reflected...

  11. Contextual risk factors for low birth weight: a multilevel analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gbenga A Kayode

    Full Text Available Low birth weight (LBW remains to be a leading cause of neonatal death and a major contributor to infant and under-five mortality. Its prevalence has not declined in the last decade in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA and Asia. Some individual level factors have been identified as risk factors for LBW but knowledge is limited on contextual risk factors for LBW especially in SSA.Contextual risk factors for LBW in Ghana were identified by performing multivariable multilevel logistic regression analysis of 6,900 mothers dwelling in 412 communities that participated in the 2003 and 2008 Demographic and Health Surveys in Ghana.Contextual-level factors were significantly associated with LBW: Being a rural dweller increased the likelihood of having a LBW infant by 43% (OR 1.43; 95% CI 1.01-2.01; P-value <0.05 while living in poverty-concentrated communities increased the risk of having a LBW infant twofold (OR 2.16; 95% CI 1.29-3.61; P-value <0.01. In neighbourhoods with a high coverage of safe water supply the odds of having a LBW infant reduced by 28% (OR 0.74; 95% CI 0.57-0.96; P-value <0.05.This study showed contextual risk factors to have independent effects on the prevalence of LBW infants. Being a rural dweller, living in a community with a high concentration of poverty and a low coverage of safe water supply were found to increase the prevalence of LBW infants. Implementing appropriate community-based intervention programmes will likely reduce the occurrence of LBW infants.

  12. Uncertainty Instability Risk Analysis of High Concrete Arch Dam Abutments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xin Cao

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The uncertainties associated with concrete arch dams rise with the increased height of dams. Given the uncertainties associated with influencing factors, the stability of high arch dam abutments as a fuzzy random event was studied. In addition, given the randomness and fuzziness of calculation parameters as well as the failure criterion, hazard point and hazard surface uncertainty instability risk ratio models were proposed for high arch dam abutments on the basis of credibility theory. The uncertainty instability failure criterion was derived through the analysis of the progressive instability failure process on the basis of Shannon’s entropy theory. The uncertainties associated with influencing factors were quantized by probability or possibility distribution assignments. Gaussian random theory was used to generate random realizations for influence factors with spatial variability. The uncertainty stability analysis method was proposed by combining the finite element analysis and the limit equilibrium method. The instability risk ratio was calculated using the Monte Carlo simulation method and fuzzy random postprocessing. Results corroborate that the modeling approach is sound and that the calculation method is feasible.

  13. ANALYSIS OF ROMANIAN SMALL AND MEDIUM ENTERPRISES BANKRUPTCY RISK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kulcsar Edina

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Considering the fundamental role of small and medium enterprises in Romanian economy, this paper aims to quantify the level of their bankruptcy risk for 2009 and 2012 period, after debuting of financial crisis. The main reason of selecting this type of companies is that they represent the backbone of national economy. They have an indispensable role, because they offer jobs for great part of population and their contribution for GDP stimulation is considerable. In this paper it was applied two default risk models, namely the well known Altman’s Z-score model, based on five financial ratios and a bankruptcy predictor model developed by Teti et. al (2012 used firstly exclusively for Italian small and medium-sized enterprise for 2006-2009 period. The model proposed by Teti et. is based on the investigation of financially distressed and financially non-distressed Italian small and medium-sized enterprises during the financial crisis by using a discriminant analysis model. They conclude that there are four financial ratios, which characterized well the small and medium-sized enterprises bankruptcy risk. These variables are financial ratios, like: Debt/Total Assets, Return on Sales (ROS, EBIT/Interest Expenses and Working capital/EBIDTA. They consider that small and medium-sized enterprises require a particular approach in terms of bankruptcy risk analysis. In present study I try to compare the efficiency of traditional bankruptcy risk model with a small and medium-sized specific model. The necessary database for present analysis is ensured by simplified financial reports of 120 small and medium-sized enterprises registered in Bihor County. The selected enterprises are operating in manufacturing industry (21,67% and trading (78,33%. Present investigation has an important value in actual economic background, where the healthiness and sustainability of small and medium-sized enterprises is a great issue. The results of study shows contradictory

  14. Brucellosis in a high risk occupational group: sero prevalence and analysis of risk factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mukhtar, F.

    2010-01-01

    Objectives: To estimate Brucella sero positivity among slaughterhouse workers of Lahore district and to elucidate risk factors associated with sero positivity to Brucella. Method: During the year 2008, a cross-sectional study was conducted in four slaughterhouses of Lahore district. A sample of 360 workers was selected from these slaughterhouses through stratified random sampling on proportional basis. Workers were interviewed using a structured questionnaire to obtain risk factor information and their blood samples were collected to be screened for the presence of anti-Brucella IgG using Enzyme Linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA) technique. Data management and analysis were performed using SPSS (statistical package for social sciences) version 16. Risk factors associated with sero positivity to anti-Brucella IgG were identified by constructing a logistic regression model. Results: Of the 360 serum samples tested, 21.7% (95% CI 17.44% - 25.96%) were positive by ELISA test. The logistic regression model identified age (OR 0.96, 95% CI 0.94-0.99), assistance in parturition of animal (OR 0.47, 95% CI 0.23-0.96), consuming raw milk (OR 2.25, 95% CI 1.04-4.87) and handling sheep (OR 0.30, 95% CI 0.09- 0.92) as risk factors for Brucella sero positivity among slaughterhouse workers of Lahore district. Conclusion: To reduce the burden of brucellosis, a national brucellosis control programme should be initiated with special emphasis on the high risk population of slaughterhouse workers. (author)

  15. Assessing population exposure for landslide risk analysis using dasymetric cartography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, Ricardo A. C.; Oliveira, Sergio C.; Zezere, Jose L.

    2015-04-01

    Exposed Population is a major topic that needs to be taken into account in a full landslide risk analysis. Usually, risk analysis is based on an accounting of inhabitants number or inhabitants density, applied over statistical or administrative terrain units, such as NUTS or parishes. However, this kind of approach may skew the obtained results underestimating the importance of population, mainly in territorial units with predominance of rural occupation. Furthermore, the landslide susceptibility scores calculated for each terrain unit are frequently more detailed and accurate than the location of the exposed population inside each territorial unit based on Census data. These drawbacks are not the ideal setting when landslide risk analysis is performed for urban management and emergency planning. Dasymetric cartography, which uses a parameter or set of parameters to restrict the spatial distribution of a particular phenomenon, is a methodology that may help to enhance the resolution of Census data and therefore to give a more realistic representation of the population distribution. Therefore, this work aims to map and to compare the population distribution based on a traditional approach (population per administrative terrain units) and based on dasymetric cartography (population by building). The study is developed in the Region North of Lisbon using 2011 population data and following three main steps: i) the landslide susceptibility assessment based on statistical models independently validated; ii) the evaluation of population distribution (absolute and density) for different administrative territorial units (Parishes and BGRI - the basic statistical unit in the Portuguese Census); and iii) the dasymetric population's cartography based on building areal weighting. Preliminary results show that in sparsely populated administrative units, population density differs more than two times depending on the application of the traditional approach or the dasymetric

  16. Multi-hazard risk analysis related to hurricanes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Ning

    Hurricanes present major hazards to the United States. Associated with extreme winds, heavy rainfall, and storm surge, landfalling hurricanes often cause enormous structural damage to coastal regions. Hurricane damage risk assessment provides the basis for loss mitigation and related policy-making. Current hurricane risk models, however, often oversimplify the complex processes of hurricane damage. This dissertation aims to improve existing hurricane risk assessment methodology by coherently modeling the spatial-temporal processes of storm landfall, hazards, and damage. Numerical modeling technologies are used to investigate the multiplicity of hazards associated with landfalling hurricanes. The application and effectiveness of current weather forecasting technologies to predict hurricane hazards is investigated. In particular, the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), with Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL)'s hurricane initialization scheme, is applied to the simulation of the wind and rainfall environment during hurricane landfall. The WRF model is further coupled with the Advanced Circulation (AD-CIRC) model to simulate storm surge in coastal regions. A case study examines the multiple hazards associated with Hurricane Isabel (2003). Also, a risk assessment methodology is developed to estimate the probability distribution of hurricane storm surge heights along the coast, particularly for data-scarce regions, such as New York City. This methodology makes use of relatively simple models, specifically a statistical/deterministic hurricane model and the Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model, to simulate large numbers of synthetic surge events, and conducts statistical analysis. The estimation of hurricane landfall probability and hazards are combined with structural vulnerability models to estimate hurricane damage risk. Wind-induced damage mechanisms are extensively studied. An innovative windborne debris risk model is

  17. Radiogenic leukemia risk analysis for the Techa River Cohort members

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krestinina, L.Y.; Epifanova, S.B.; Akleyev, A.V.; Preston, D.; Davis, F.; Ron, E.

    2008-01-01

    Full text: Members of the Techa River Cohort have been exposed to a long-term external and internal irradiation due to releases of radioactive waste from the Mayak Production Association into the Techa River. Since internal exposure resulted primarily from incorporation of 90 Sr in the bone structure, the bone marrow was the principal target. The maximum dose to the red bone marrow accumulated over 50 years in cohort members reached 2 Gy, and the mean dose was 0.3 Gy. The epidemiological analysis of radiogenic risk of leukemia development was conducted based on the retrospective cohort study approach and regression analysis using the Epicure statistical packet. The extended Techa River Cohort (ETRC) includes about 30 thousand people of the two genders, various ages and different ethnicity (mostly Russians, Tartars and Bashkirs). The catchment area for leukemia mortality and incidence follow-up includes the whole Chelyabinsk and Kurgan Oblasts. The previous analysis of leukemia mortality risk for a 50-year follow-up period pointed out statistically significant dose dependence. The presentation will for the first time describe the results of leukemia incidence risk analyses for the period from 1953 through 2004. Over this 52-year follow-up period 92 leukemia cases (42 in men and 50 in women) were registered among ETRC members resident in the catchment area. Among those 92 cases there were 22 cases attributed to chronic lymphoid leukemia (12 in men and 10 in women). The preliminary analysis of leukemia incidence risk showed a statistically significant linear dependence on dose for total leukemias (p = 0.006), as well as for leukemias with CLL excluded (p < 0.001). The point value of the total leukemia incidence ERR was 2.0/Gy (95% CI: 0.4-15.4) and for leukemia with CLL excluded the ERR was 4.5/Gy (95% CI: 1.1-14.7). More than 57% of leukemia cases (excluding CLL) registered in ETRC members could be related to the radiogenic factor. Analyses of chronic lymphoid

  18. Management of Microbiologically Influenced Corrosion in Risk Based Inspection analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skovhus, Torben Lund; Hillier, Elizabeth; Andersen, Erlend S.

    . Microbiologically Influenced Corrosion (MIC) is a degradation mechanism that has received increased attention from corrosion engineers and asset operators in the past decades. In this paper, the most recent models that have been developed in order to assess the impact of MIC on asset integrity will be presented...... and an extensive up-to date literature study. The parameters are discussed and subsequently combined in a novel procedure that allows assessment of MIC in a RBI analysis. The procedure is sub-divided into one screening step and a detailed assessment, which fits the recommended approach to assess risk in a RBI...

  19. Risk-analysis of the fuel cycle in the Netherlands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1975-06-01

    As part of the risk analysis of the nuclear power plant fuel cycle in the Netherlands, a risk analysis is given of nuclear power plants in casu of the already operating Borssele reactor, Dodewaard reactor and a 1000MWe PWR and BWR reactor during accident and normal conditions. For a 1000MWe PWR and BWR reactor, four possible locations are considered. In the first part of the report the influence of nuclear power plants on the environment during normal operations is considered. For each location, a summary is given of the population, the kind of industry, the meteorology, the condition of the soil and surface waters in the environment of the reactor site. After a summary of the most important safety systems for cooling the reactor core, the power supply of the power plant, the treatment and discharge of gaseous and solid waste is described as is the administration, security and monitoring thereof. The quality control and quality assurance of reactor components is described extensively. For safeguards, there are ways described to prevent the theft of fossile materials during the fuel cycle. Health physics and radiation monitoring of reactor operators and workers in the power plant are discussed and the report closes with a description and calculation using diffusion models, of the direct influence of radioactive waste on the environment especially on the human population, or the indirect influence of radioactive waste due to food consumption. The description of the influence of reactor accidents on the environment starts with a classification of the most important accidents that can occur. For each of these accidents, an event tree has been made and the probability of occurrence of these events is calculated. For each accident, the probability and the order of radioactivity release has been calculated. A description is given of the risk analysis calculation for each release category and each reactor location. After a summary of the different kinds of radioactive

  20. Issues in risk analysis of passive LWR designs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Youngblood, R.W.; Pratt, W.T.; Amico, P.J.; Gallagher, D.

    1992-01-01

    This paper discusses issues which bear on the question of how safety is to be demonstrated for ''simplified passive'' light water reactor (LWR) designs. First, a very simplified comparison is made between certain systems in today's plants. comparable systems in evolutionary designs, and comparable systems in the simplified passives. in order to introduce the issues. This discussion is not intended to describe the designs comprehensively, but is offered only to show why certain issues seem to be important in these particular designs. Next, an important class of accident sequences is described; finally, based on this discussion, some priorities in risk analysis are presented and discussed

  1. Comprehensive safeguards evaluation methods and societal risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Richardson, J.M.

    1982-03-01

    Essential capabilities of an integrated evaluation methodology for analyzing safeguards systems are discussed. Such a methodology must be conceptually meaningful, technically defensible, discriminating and consistent. A decompostion of safeguards systems by function is mentioned as a possible starting point for methodology development. The application of a societal risk equation to safeguards systems analysis is addressed. Conceptual problems with this approach are discussed. Technical difficulties in applying this equation to safeguards systems are illustrated through the use of confidence intervals, information content, hypothesis testing and ranking and selection procedures

  2. From risk analysis to risk control in land transport of dangerous materials. Contribution of quantitative evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, Ph.; Pages, P.

    1985-03-01

    The different approaches of risks and risk management system are described: statistics, potential risk, prevention, information and intervention. Quantitative evaluation is developed: data collection, purposes and methods. Two examples of application are given on risks associated to road transport of propane and of uranium hexafluoride. In conclusion level of risk and practical use of studies on risks are examined. 41 refs [fr

  3. Risk analysis and the law: international law, the World Trade Organization, Codex Alimentarius and national legislation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horton, L R

    2001-12-01

    This paper discusses the place of risk analysis in international trade from a US perspective, through looking at the activities of the World Trade Organization and the Codex Alimentarius Commission. After examining what the trade agreements say about risk analysis and how international bodies are advancing and using risk analysis, the paper goes on to assess how risk analysis is used at a national level. Finally, recommendations are made for strengthening international food safety initiatives.

  4. A Probabilistic Analysis of Surface Water Flood Risk in London.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenkins, Katie; Hall, Jim; Glenis, Vassilis; Kilsby, Chris

    2017-10-30

    Flooding in urban areas during heavy rainfall, often characterized by short duration and high-intensity events, is known as "surface water flooding." Analyzing surface water flood risk is complex as it requires understanding of biophysical and human factors, such as the localized scale and nature of heavy precipitation events, characteristics of the urban area affected (including detailed topography and drainage networks), and the spatial distribution of economic and social vulnerability. Climate change is recognized as having the potential to enhance the intensity and frequency of heavy rainfall events. This study develops a methodology to link high spatial resolution probabilistic projections of hourly precipitation with detailed surface water flood depth maps and characterization of urban vulnerability to estimate surface water flood risk. It incorporates probabilistic information on the range of uncertainties in future precipitation in a changing climate. The method is applied to a case study of Greater London and highlights that both the frequency and spatial extent of surface water flood events are set to increase under future climate change. The expected annual damage from surface water flooding is estimated to be to be £171 million, £343 million, and £390 million/year under the baseline, 2030 high, and 2050 high climate change scenarios, respectively. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  5. Pressure Systems Stored-Energy Threshold Risk Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paulsen, Samuel S.

    2009-08-25

    Federal Regulation 10 CFR 851, which became effective February 2007, brought to light potential weaknesses regarding the Pressure Safety Program at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). The definition of a pressure system in 10 CFR 851 does not contain a limit based upon pressure or any other criteria. Therefore, the need for a method to determine an appropriate risk-based hazard level for pressure safety was identified. The Laboratory has historically used a stored energy of 1000 lbf-ft to define a pressure hazard; however, an analytical basis for this value had not been documented. This document establishes the technical basis by evaluating the use of stored energy as an appropriate criterion to establish a pressure hazard, exploring a suitable risk threshold for pressure hazards, and reviewing the methods used to determine stored energy. The literature review and technical analysis concludes the use of stored energy as a method for determining a potential risk, the 1000 lbf-ft threshold, and the methods used by PNNL to calculate stored energy are all appropriate. Recommendations for further program improvements are also discussed

  6. Profile and Risk Factor Analysis of Unintentional Injuries in Children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhamkar, Rahul; Seth, Bageshree; Setia, Maninder Singh

    2016-10-01

    To study the profile and various risk factors associated with unintentional injuries in children. The study is a cross sectional analysis of data collected from 351 children presenting with unintentional injury to a tertiary care hospital in Navi Mumbai, India. Data were collected about variables based on Haddon Phase Factor Matrix - host, environment and agent factors. Proportions for categorical variables across various groups were compared using Chi square test or Fisher's exact test. Logistic regression model was used to evaluate the factors. Falls (36 %) were the most common injuries followed by bites (23 %). Majority of children were school going children (38 %) followed by preschool children (29 %). Forty-seven percent were from lower socioeconomic class. Commonest place of injury was home (48 %) and the commonest time was evening (49 %). Though there was male predominance in injuries, the difference across gender did not vary significantly (p = 0.15). Poisonings were significantly more common in infants and toddlers and in rural population (p risk of bites compared to urban (p Profile of injuries varies widely as per the variations in agent, host and environmental factors. Socio-environmental, economic conditions and infancy-toddler age groups are predisposing risk factors for bites and poisoning. Although rural areas and lower socioeconomic class population are more vulnerable to serious types of injuries, they still lack essential basic medical care.

  7. Risk analysis associated with petroleum hydrocarbons: is everything running smoothly?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morin, D.

    1999-01-01

    Petroleum products represent one of the main sources of environmental contamination, and these products are complex, composed of several hundred individual hydrocarbons. The evaluation of the risks associated with petroleum products is often limited by certain specific parameters such as benzene. The petroleum hydrocarbons running from C(10) to C(50) are not often integrated in an analysis of the toxological risks since the toxological characterization of a complex mixture of hydrocarbons is difficult to carry out. There exist in the United States two approaches that were developed recently that allow the integration of various hydrocarbons comprising a mixture. In this presentation, two of these approaches are described and compared. An overview of these approaches related to Canadian regulatory bodies is included, and a case study completes the account. The two approaches that are most well known in this area are: 1) that of the Massachusetts Dept. of Environmental Protection, and 2) that of the Total Petroleum Hydrocarbon Criteria Working Group. The integration of petroleum hydrocarbons in a quantitative evaluation of their toxological risk is possible by present methods. This integration allows a reduction in the uncertainty associated with the use of an integrating parameter in the case of these petroleum hydrocarbons in the C(10) to the C(50) range

  8. Crash Prediction and Risk Evaluation Based on Traffic Analysis Zones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cuiping Zhang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Traffic safety evaluation for traffic analysis zones (TAZs plays an important role in transportation safety planning and long-range transportation plan development. This paper aims to present a comprehensive analysis of zonal safety evaluation. First, several criteria are proposed to measure the crash risk at zonal level. Then these criteria are integrated into one measure-average hazard index (AHI, which is used to identify unsafe zones. In addition, the study develops a negative binomial regression model to statistically estimate significant factors for the unsafe zones. The model results indicate that the zonal crash frequency can be associated with several social-economic, demographic, and transportation system factors. The impact of these significant factors on zonal crash is also discussed. The finding of this study suggests that safety evaluation and estimation might benefit engineers and decision makers in identifying high crash locations for potential safety improvements.

  9. Simulation analysis for integrated evaluation of technical and commercial risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gutleber, D.S.; Heiberger, E.M.; Morris, T.D.

    1995-01-01

    Decisions to invest in oil- and gasfield acquisitions or participating interests often are based on the perceived ability to enhance the economic value of the underlying asset. A multidisciplinary approach integrating reservoir engineering, operations and drilling, and deal structuring with Monte Carlo simulation modeling can overcome weaknesses of deterministic analysis and significantly enhance investment decisions. This paper discusses the use of spreadsheets and Monte Carlo simulation to generate probabilistic outcomes for key technical and economic parameters for ultimate identification of the economic volatility and value of potential deal concepts for a significant opportunity. The approach differs from a simple risk analysis for an individual well by incorporating detailed, full-field simulations that vary the reservoir parameters, capital and operating cost assumptions, and schedules on timing in the framework of various deal structures

  10. Managing Security Risks in an Industrial Investment – Analysis Directions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan Dragomir

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper achieved an analysis of some important management strategies for an investment, in correlation with index of global pollution. Environmental security assessment shall be determined taking into account the workplace security and effects on health, safety of workers in an industry investment. It is necessary to observe and collect a larger number of data generated by the development of an industrial process, so as to make a deep analysis on global pollution index and how it is affected industrial investment environment. This research shows how can the substances that infest the environment to produce much damage and influence the environmental factors (air, water, soil, landscape, fauna and flora. When we know the risks that characterize the plant equipment, we can protect the life and we can protect the environment for a sustainable development in the future.

  11. Risk Perception Analysis Related To Existing Dams In Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solimene, Pellegrino

    2013-04-01

    earthfill dam is illustrated by defining the risk analysis during its construction and operation. A qualitative "Event Tree Analysis" makes clear with an example the probability of occurrence of the events triggered by an earthquake, and leads to a classification of the damage level. Finally, a System Dynamics (SD) approach is presented to investigate possibilities of a preventive planning in relationship to the risk, so that it's possible to establish shared procedures to achieve the correct management in any crisis phase. As a qualitative result of a SD application, figure 1 presents a flow-chart about a case study on the same dam so to illustrate the emergency planning in a step by step procedure according to the Regulations.

  12. Dietary patterns and risk of oral cancer: a case-control study in São Paulo, Brazil Padrões dietéticos e risco de câncer oral: estudo caso-controle em São Paulo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dirce Maria Lobo Marchioni

    2007-02-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To analyze the association between dietary patterns and oral cancer. METHODS: The study, part of a Latin American multicenter hospital-based case-control study, was conducted in São Paulo, Southeastern Brazil, between November 1998 and March 2002 and included 366 incident cases of oral cancer and 469 controls, frequency-matched with cases by sex and age. Dietary data were collected using a food frequency questionnaire. The risk associated with the intake of food groups defined a posteriori, through factor analysis (called factors, was assessed. The first factor, labeled "prudent," was characterized by the intake of vegetables, fruit, cheese, and poultry. The second factor, "traditional," consisted of the intake of rice, pasta, pulses, and meat. The third factor, "snacks," was characterized as the intake of bread, butter, salami, cheese, cakes, and desserts. The fourth, "monotonous," was inversely associated with the intake of fruit, vegetables and most other food items. Factor scores for each component retained were calculated for cases and controls. After categorization of factor scores into tertiles according to the distribution of controls, odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated using unconditional multiple logistic regression. RESULTS: "Traditional" factor showed an inverse association with cancer (OR=0.51; 95% CI: 0.32; 0.81, p-value for trend 0.14, whereas "monotonous" was positively associated with the outcome (OR=1.78; 95% CI: 1.78; 2.85, p-value for trend OBJETIVO: Analisar padrões dietéticos relacionados com o câncer oral. MÉTODOS: Estudo caso-controle de base hospitalar, parte de um estudo multicêntrico na América Latina, foi realizado em São Paulo entre novembro de 1998 e março de 2003 em 366 casos incidentes de câncer oral e 469 controles, pareados por freqüência de sexo e idade. O inquérito dietético foi realizado por questionário de freqüência alimentar. Analisou-se o risco associado

  13. Comparative risk analysis for the Rocky Flats Plant integrated project planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, M.E.; Shain, D.I.

    1994-01-01

    The Rocky Flats Plant is developing, with active stakeholder participation, a comprehensive planning strategy that will support transition of the Rocky Flats Plant from a nuclear weapons production facility to site cleanup and final disposition. Consideration of the interrelated nature of sitewide problems, such as material movement and disposition, facility and land use endstates, costs, relative risks to workers and the public, and waste disposition are all needed. Comparative Risk Analysis employs both incremental risk and cumulative risk evaluations to compare risks from postulated options or endstates and is an analytical tool for the Rocky Flats Plant Integrated Project Planning which can assist a decision-maker in evaluating relative risks among proposed remediation activity. However, risks from all of the remediation activities, decontamination and decommissioning activities, and normal ongoing operations are imposed upon the Rocky Flats workers, the surrounding public, and the environment. Comparative Risk Analysis will provide risk information, both human health and ecological, to aid in reducing unnecessary resource and monetary expenditures by focusing these resources on the largest risks first. Comparative Risk Analysis has been developed to aggregate various incremental risk estimates to develop a site cumulative risk estimate. The Comparative Risk Analysis methodology Group, consisting of community stakeholders, was established. Early stakeholder involvement in the risk analysis methodology development provides an opportunity for stakeholders to influence the risk information delivered to a decision-maker. This paper discusses development of the Comparative Risk Analysis methodology, stakeholder participation and lessons learned from these challenges

  14. Risco de suicídio em jovens com transtornos de ansiedade: estudo de base populacional Riesgo de suicidio en jóvenes con trastornos de ansiedad: estudio de base poblacional Suicide risk in young adults with anxiety disorders: population-based study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moisés Ederson da Silva Rodrigues

    2012-04-01

    importancia de mayor atención al riesgo de suicidio también en pacientes con trastornos de ansiedad.This study aimed at investigating the relationship between the presence of anxiety disorders and suicide risk in young adults. In a cross-sectional population-based design young adults answered a questionnaire about sociodemographic, behavioral and health characteristics. The measure of psychological well-being was made by Faces Scale of Andrews while the substances use evaluation was performed according to the Alcohol, Smoking and Substance Involvement Screening Test (ASSIST. The Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview 5.0 evaluated anxiety disorders and suicide risk. Among the 1.621 young adults interviewed, 20.9% had some anxiety disorders and 8.6% suicide risk. After multivariate analysis, the presence of any anxiety disorder was significantly associated with suicide risk (PR 6.10 95% CI 3.95 to 9.43. Thus, it is highlighted the importance of greater attention to suicide risk in those patients with anxiety disorders.

  15. Analysis of existing risk assessments, and list of suggestions

    CERN Document Server

    Heimsch, Laura

    2016-01-01

    The scope of this project was to analyse risk assessments made at CERN and extracting some crucial information about the different methodologies used, profiles of people who make the risk assessments, and gathering information of whether the risk matrix was used and if the acceptable level of risk was defined. Second step of the project was to trigger discussion inside HSE about risk assessment by suggesting a risk matrix and a risk assessment template.

  16. Use of quantitative uncertainty analysis for human health risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duncan, F.L.W.; Gordon, J.W.; Kelly, M.

    1994-01-01

    Current human health risk assessment method for environmental risks typically use point estimates of risk accompanied by qualitative discussions of uncertainty. Alternatively, Monte Carlo simulations may be used with distributions for input parameters to estimate the resulting risk distribution and descriptive risk percentiles. These two techniques are applied for the ingestion of 1,1=dichloroethene in ground water. The results indicate that Monte Carlo simulations provide significantly more information for risk assessment and risk management than do point estimates

  17. Bisphosphonates and risk of cardiovascular events: a meta-analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dae Hyun Kim

    Full Text Available Some evidence suggests that bisphosphonates may reduce atherosclerosis, while concerns have been raised about atrial fibrillation. We conducted a meta-analysis to determine the effects of bisphosphonates on total adverse cardiovascular (CV events, atrial fibrillation, myocardial infarction (MI, stroke, and CV death in adults with or at risk for low bone mass.A systematic search of MEDLINE and EMBASE through July 2014 identified 58 randomized controlled trials with longer than 6 months in duration that reported CV events. Absolute risks and the Mantel-Haenszel fixed-effects odds ratios (ORs and 95% confidence intervals (CIs of total CV events, atrial fibrillation, MI, stroke, and CV death were estimated. Subgroup analyses by follow-up duration, population characteristics, bisphosphonate types, and route were performed.Absolute risks over 25-36 months in bisphosphonate-treated versus control patients were 6.5% versus 6.2% for total CV events; 1.4% versus 1.5% for atrial fibrillation; 1.0% versus 1.2% for MI; 1.6% versus 1.9% for stroke; and 1.5% versus 1.4% for CV death. Bisphosphonate treatment up to 36 months did not have any significant effects on total CV events (14 trials; ORs [95% CI]: 0.98 [0.84-1.14]; I2 = 0.0%, atrial fibrillation (41 trials; 1.08 [0.92-1.25]; I2 = 0.0%, MI (10 trials; 0.96 [0.69-1.34]; I2 = 0.0%, stroke (10 trials; 0.99 [0.82-1.19]; I2 = 5.8%, and CV death (14 trials; 0.88 [0.72-1.07]; I2 = 0.0% with little between-study heterogeneity. The risk of atrial fibrillation appears to be modestly elevated for zoledronic acid (6 trials; 1.24 [0.96-1.61]; I2 = 0.0%, not for oral bisphosphonates (26 trials; 1.02 [0.83-1.24]; I2 = 0.0%. The CV effects did not vary by subgroups or study quality.Bisphosphonates do not have beneficial or harmful effects on atherosclerotic CV events, but zoledronic acid may modestly increase the risk of atrial fibrillation. Given the large reduction in fractures with bisphosphonates, changes in

  18. 76 FR 76215 - Privacy Act; System of Records: State-78, Risk Analysis and Management Records

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-06

    ... a system of records, Risk Analysis and Management Records, State-78, pursuant to the provisions of... INFORMATION: The Department of State proposes that the new system will be ``Risk Analysis and Management.... These standard routine uses apply to State-78, Risk Analysis and Management Records. POLICIES AND...

  19. Geographic resolution issues in RAM transportation risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mills G, Scott; Neuhauser, Sieglinde

    2000-01-01

    Over the years that radioactive material (RAM) transportation risk estimates have been calculated using the RADTRAN code, demand for improved geographic resolution of route characteristics, especially density of population neighboring route segments, has led to code improvements that provide more specific route definition. With the advent of geographic information systems (GISs), the achievable resolution of route characteristics is theoretically very high. The authors have compiled population-density data in 1-kilometer increments for routes extending over hundreds of kilometers without impractical expenditures of time. Achievable resolution of analysis is limited, however, by the resolution of available data. U.S. Census data typically have 1-km or better resolution within densely-populated portions of metropolitan areas but census blocks are much larger in rural areas. Geographic resolution of accident-rate data, especially for heavy/combination trucks, are typically tabulated on a statewide basis. These practical realities cause one to ask what level(s) of resolution may be necessary for meaningful risk analysis of transportation actions on a state or interstate scale

  20. Post mitigation impact risk analysis for asteroid deflection demonstration missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eggl, Siegfried; Hestroffer, Daniel; Thuillot, William; Bancelin, David; Cano, Juan L.; Cichocki, Filippo

    2015-08-01

    Even though mankind believes to have the capabilities to avert potentially disastrous asteroid impacts, only the realization of mitigation demonstration missions can validate this claim. Such a deflection demonstration attempt has to be cost effective, easy to validate, and safe in the sense that harmless asteroids must not be turned into potentially hazardous objects. Uncertainties in an asteroid's orbital and physical parameters as well as those additionally introduced during a mitigation attempt necessitate an in depth analysis of deflection mission designs in order to dispel planetary safety concerns. We present a post mitigation impact risk analysis of a list of potential kinetic impactor based deflection demonstration missions proposed in the framework of the NEOShield project. Our results confirm that mitigation induced uncertainties have a significant influence on the deflection outcome. Those cannot be neglected in post deflection impact risk studies. We show, furthermore, that deflection missions have to be assessed on an individual basis in order to ensure that asteroids are not inadvertently transported closer to the Earth at a later date. Finally, we present viable targets and mission designs for a kinetic impactor test to be launched between the years 2025 and 2032.

  1. Analysis of risk factors of pulmonary embolism in diabetic patients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xie Changhui; Ma Zhihai; Zhu Lin; Chi Lianxiang

    2012-01-01

    Objective: To study the related risk factors in diabetic patients with pulmonary embolism (PE). Methods: 58 diabetic cases underwent lower limbs 99m Tc-MAA veins imaging (and/or ultrasonography) and pulmonary perfusion imaging. The related laboratory data [fasting blood glucose (FBG), blood cholesterol, blood long chain triglycerides (LCT)] and clinic information [age, disease courses, chest symptoms (chest pain and short of breathe), lower limbs symptoms (swelling, varicose veins and diabetic foot) and acute complication (diabetic ketoacidosis and hyperosmolar non ketotic diabetic coma)] were collected simultaneously. SPSS was used for χ 2 -test and Logistic regression analysis. Results: (1) 28 patients (48.3%) were showed to be with lower limbs deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and by 99m Tc-MAA imaging, 10 cases (17.2%) with PE. The PE ratios (32.1%) of the patients with DVT was more higher than no DVT (3.3%) (χ 2 =6.53, P 2 ≥4.23, P 2 ≤2.76, P>0.05), respectively. (3) Multiplicity analysis indicated: the related risk factors for PE included chest symptoms (Score=13.316, P=0.000) and lower limbs symptoms (Score=7.780, P=0.005). No significant difference to other factors (Score≤2.494, P>0.114), respectively. Conclusion: The serious DM with chest symptoms, lower limbs symptoms and/or DVT must be controlled as early as possible by all kinds of treatment. It will decrease the PE complication. (authors)

  2. Analysis of trends in aviation maintenance risk: An empirical approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marais, Karen B.; Robichaud, Matthew R.

    2012-01-01

    Safety is paramount in the airline industry. A significant amount of effort has been devoted to reducing mechanical failures and pilot errors. Recently, more attention has been devoted to the contribution of maintenance to accidents and incidents. This study investigates and quantifies the contribution of maintenance, both in terms of frequency and severity, to passenger airline risk by analyzing three different sources of data from 1999 to 2008: 769 NTSB accident reports, 3242 FAA incident reports, and 7478 FAA records of fines and other legal actions taken against airlines and associated organizations. We analyze several safety related metrics and develop an aviation maintenance risk scorecard that collects these metrics to synthesize a comprehensive track record of maintenance contribution to airline accidents and incidents. We found for example that maintenance-related accidents are approximately 6.5 times more likely to be fatal than accidents in general, and that when fatalities do occur, maintenance accidents result in approximately 3.6 times more fatalities on average. Our analysis of accident trends indicates that this contribution to accident risk has remained fairly constant over the past decade. Our analysis of incidents and FAA fines and legal actions also revealed similar trends. We found that at least 10% of incidents involving mechanical failures such as ruptured hydraulic lines can be attributed to maintenance, suggesting that there may be issues surrounding both the design of and compliance with maintenance plans. Similarly 36% of FAA fines and legal actions involve inadequate maintenance, with recent years showing a decline to about 20%, which may be a reflection of improved maintenance practices. Our results can aid industry and government in focusing resources to continue improving aviation safety.

  3. Overview of methods for uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis in probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iman, R.L.; Helton, J.C.

    1985-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is playing an increasingly important role in the nuclear reactor regulatory process. The assessment of uncertainties associated with PRA results is widely recognized as an important part of the analysis process. One of the major criticisms of the Reactor Safety Study was that its representation of uncertainty was inadequate. The desire for the capability to treat uncertainties with the MELCOR risk code being developed at Sandia National Laboratories is indicative of the current interest in this topic. However, as yet, uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis in the context of PRA is a relatively immature field. In this paper, available methods for uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis in a PRA are reviewed. This review first treats methods for use with individual components of a PRA and then considers how these methods could be combined in the performance of a complete PRA. In the context of this paper, the goal of uncertainty analysis is to measure the imprecision in PRA outcomes of interest, and the goal of sensitivity analysis is to identify the major contributors to this imprecision. There are a number of areas that must be considered in uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis for a PRA: (1) information, (2) systems analysis, (3) thermal-hydraulic phenomena/fission product behavior, (4) health and economic consequences, and (5) display of results. Each of these areas and the synthesis of them into a complete PRA are discussed

  4. A case-control study of HTLV-infection among blood donors in Salvador, Bahia, Brazil - associated risk factors and trend towards declining prevalence Estudo da infecção do HTLV entre doadores de sangue de Salvador, Bahia, Brasil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Augusto Mota

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available Previous data suggest that Salvador, the capital of the State of Bahia, a northeastern state of Brazil, has the highest prevalence of HTLV infection in blood donors among Brazilian cities. The aim of this case-control study was to identify the determinants of risk for HTLV infection among blood donors in the city of Salvador. Between January 2000 and December 2003, 504 blood donors with positive screening tests for HTLV infection (unconfirmed prevalence of 0.48% were invited to participate in our study. A total of 154 had performed a Western Blot (WB test, 139 were of which found to be positive (false positive screening rate 9.9%. Using a standardized questionnaire, a single interviewer obtained information on demographic, socio-economical and educational characteristics, as well as sexual behavior from 91 out of the 139 positive by WB and from 194 HTLV-negative blood donors. Prevalence of HTLV infection was 0.48%. Multivariate analysis revealed women (OR 3.79 [1.61-8.88], p=0.002, low family income* (OR 3.37 [1.17-9.66], p=0.02, self-reported history of sexual transmitted diseases (OR 6.15 [2.04-18.51], p=0.001, 2 or more sexual partners during life (OR 9.29 [2.16-39.94], p=0.0020 and inconsistent use of condoms (OR 4.73 [1.98-11.26], p=0.0004 as risk factors for HTLV infection. In accordance with previous published data, our results point to an association between low socio-economical level, poor education and unsafe sexual behavior with HTLV infection. We observed a lower prevalence of HLTV infection when compared to previous data.Estudos anteriores sugerem que Salvador, capital da Bahia, um estado do Nordeste do Brasil, tem a maior prevalência de infecção por HTLV em doadores de sangue entre as cidades brasileiras. O objetivo deste estudo caso-controle foi identificar os determinantes de risco para a infecção por HTLV entre doadores de sangue em Salvador. Entre janeiro 2000 e dezembro 2003, 504 doadores de sangue positivos para a infec

  5. Risk Profile Analysis on BIST30 Exchange Index

    OpenAIRE

    Ural, Mert; Demireli, Erhan

    2018-01-01

    Inthis study, a portfolio was created by using the stocks listed in BIST30 indexand the portfolio risk was measured by using Capital Asset Pricing Model. Afterthat risk decomposition was made by purifying the risk of the stocks from totalmarket risk and by this way the systematic and non-systematic risk amounts havebeen determined for both the portfolio and each stock.

  6. Safety analysis and risk assessment of the National Ignition Facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brereton, S.; McLouth, L.; Odell, B.

    1996-01-01

    The National Ignition Facility (NIF) is a proposed U.S. Department of Energy inertial confinement laser fusion facility. The candidate sites for locating the NIF are: Los Alamos National Laboratory, Sandia National Laboratory, the Nevada Test Site, and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), the preferred site. The NIF will operate by focusing 192 laser beams onto a tiny deuterium-tritium target located at the center of a spherical target chamber. The NIF mission is to achieve inertial confinement fusion (ICF) ignition, access physical conditions in matter of interest to nuclear weapons physics, provide an above ground simulation capability for nuclear weapons effects testing, and contribute to the development of inertial fusion for electrical power production. The NIF has been classified as a radiological, low hazard facility on the basis of a preliminary hazards analysis and according to the DOE methodology for facility classification. This requires that a safety analysis be prepared under DOE Order 5481.1B, Safety Analysis and Review System. A draft Preliminary Safety Analysis Report (PSAR) has been written, and this will be finalized later in 1996. This paper summarizes the safety issues associated with the operation of the NIF and the methodology used to study them. It provides a summary of the methodology, an overview of the hazards, estimates maximum routine and accidental exposures for the preferred site of LLNL, and concludes that the risks from NIF operations are low

  7. Risk analysis of geothermal power plants using Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) technique

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feili, Hamid Reza; Akar, Navid; Lotfizadeh, Hossein; Bairampour, Mohammad; Nasiri, Sina

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • Using Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) to find potential failures in geothermal power plants. • We considered 5 major parts of geothermal power plants for risk analysis. • Risk Priority Number (RPN) is calculated for all failure modes. • Corrective actions are recommended to eliminate or decrease the risk of failure modes. - Abstract: Renewable energy plays a key role in the transition toward a low carbon economy and the provision of a secure supply of energy. Geothermal energy is a versatile source as a form of renewable energy that meets popular demand. Since some Geothermal Power Plants (GPPs) face various failures, the requirement of a technique for team engineering to eliminate or decrease potential failures is considerable. Because no specific published record of considering an FMEA applied to GPPs with common failure modes have been found already, in this paper, the utilization of Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) as a convenient technique for determining, classifying and analyzing common failures in typical GPPs is considered. As a result, an appropriate risk scoring of occurrence, detection and severity of failure modes and computing the Risk Priority Number (RPN) for detecting high potential failures is achieved. In order to expedite accuracy and ability to analyze the process, XFMEA software is utilized. Moreover, 5 major parts of a GPP is studied to propose a suitable approach for developing GPPs and increasing reliability by recommending corrective actions for each failure mode

  8. Trace element determination study in human hair by neutron activation analysis; Estudo da determinacao de elementos traco em cabelos humanos pelo metodo de analise por ativacao com neutrons

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frazao, Selma Violato

    2008-07-01

    Human hair analysis studies have been subject of continuous interest due to the fact that they can be used as an important tool to evaluate trace element levels in the human body. These determinations have been carried out to use hair for environmental and occupational monitoring, to identify intoxication or poisoning by toxic metals, to assess nutritional status, to diagnose and to prevent diseases and in forensic sciences. Although hair analysis presents several advantages over other human tissue or fluid analyses, such as organ tissue, blood, urine and saliva, there are some controversies regarding the use of hair analysis data. These controversies arise from the fact that it is difficult to establish reliable reference values for trace elements in hair. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the factors that affect element concentrations in hair samples from a population considered healthy and residing in the Sao Paulo metropolitan area. The collected human head hair was cut in small pieces, washed, dried and analyzed by neutron activation analysis (NAA). Aliquots of hair samples and synthetic elemental standards were irradiated at the IEA-R1 nuclear research reactor for 16 h under a thermal neutron flux of about 5x10{sup 12} n cm{sup -2} s{sup -1} for As, Br, Ca, Co, Cr, Cs, Cu, Fe, K, La, Na, Sb, Sc, Se and Zn determinations. The induced gamma activities of the standards and samples were measured using a gamma ray spectrometer coupled to an hiperpure Ge detector. For quality control of the results, IAEA- 85 Human Hair and INCT-TL-1 Tea Leaves certified reference materials (CRMs) were analyzed. Results obtained in these CRMs presented for most of elements, good agreement with the values of the certificates (relative errors less than 10%) and good precision (variation coefficients less than 13.6%). Results of replicate hair sample analysis showed good reproducibility indicating homogeneity of the prepared sample. Results obtained in the analyses of dyed and

  9. The RAM +L analysis methodology: the refinery plants case study; Analise RAM +L: um estudo integrado de varias unidades de producao de uma refinaria

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Calixto, Eduardo [PETROBRAS S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Centro de Pesquisas (CENPES); Bretas, Rogerio [PETROBRAS S.A., Betim, MG (Brazil). Refinaria Gabriel Passos (REGAP)

    2008-07-01

    The RAM (Reliability, Availability and Maintainability) main objective is assess the system and equipment performance in order to identify the critical issues to implement system's improvements. The first step is define equipment failure modes and it's PDF as well as repair time for each failure mode. The second step is modeling system regarding diagram block logic dependency among equipment and its failures which cause system production losses. The third step is simulating model in defined period of time in order to identify critical equipment to propose system improvement. Despite being having been used constantly to assess system performances, those methodology do not consider the logistic complex assumptions in so many cases to huge systems and it RDB logic do not represent the real effect in production losses. Even if that good enough to perform system analysis it's not quite enough to complex system with logistic resources regarding system's products efficiency. By the other way round, in logistic complex system analysis methodologies, equipment failures details are not regarded in so many times, showing that there's a necessary improvement in those analysis. Therefore, the RAM + L analysis is a methodology which regards all equipment failures issues as well as logistic assumptions being a more realistic analysis. The refinery case study Will be propose to demonstrate a new vision of two recognized methodologies regarding a complex system with over than 200 equipment comprising two tanks, two pumps and five Unit Plants as Vacuum Distillation, Atmospheric Distillation, Hydrogen Generation, Diesel Hydrotreating Unit and DEA. (author)

  10. Kaplan-Meier Survival Analysis Overestimates the Risk of Revision Arthroplasty: A Meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lacny, Sarah; Wilson, Todd; Clement, Fiona; Roberts, Derek J; Faris, Peter D; Ghali, William A; Marshall, Deborah A

    2015-11-01

    Although Kaplan-Meier survival analysis is commonly used to estimate the cumulative incidence of revision after joint arthroplasty, it theoretically overestimates the risk of revision in the presence of competing risks (such as death). Because the magnitude of overestimation is not well documented, the potential associated impact on clinical and policy decision-making remains unknown. We performed a meta-analysis to answer the following questions: (1) To what extent does the Kaplan-Meier method overestimate the cumulative incidence of revision after joint replacement compared with alternative competing-risks methods? (2) Is the extent of overestimation influenced by followup time or rate of competing risks? We searched Ovid MEDLINE, EMBASE, BIOSIS Previews, and Web of Science (1946, 1980, 1980, and 1899, respectively, to October 26, 2013) and included article bibliographies for studies comparing estimated cumulative incidence of revision after hip or knee arthroplasty obtained using both Kaplan-Meier and competing-risks methods. We excluded conference abstracts, unpublished studies, or studies using simulated data sets. Two reviewers independently extracted data and evaluated the quality of reporting of the included studies. Among 1160 abstracts identified, six studies were included in our meta-analysis. The principal reason for the steep attrition (1160 to six) was that the initial search was for studies in any clinical area that compared the cumulative incidence estimated using the Kaplan-Meier versus competing-risks methods for any event (not just the cumulative incidence of hip or knee revision); we did this to minimize the likelihood of missing any relevant studies. We calculated risk ratios (RRs) comparing the cumulative incidence estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method with the competing-risks method for each study and used DerSimonian and Laird random effects models to pool these RRs. Heterogeneity was explored using stratified meta-analyses and

  11. Methodology of nanotechnogy's risks analysis for health and environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Merkulova, I.P.

    2014-01-01

    Risk assessment is a multidisciplinary field, and an important tool for understanding and managing the potential risks from nanotechnologies. As new technologies develop, a crucial task is to understand the health and environmental impacts and to identify potential risks. (authors)

  12. Risk Management Analysis on the Car Drivers in Indonesia

    OpenAIRE

    Kuntohadi, Hendro; Pahala, Yosi; Sitanggang, Rohana

    2015-01-01

    Car drivers in Indonesia will always face many kinds of risks. This research contains the context determination of this research, identifies all the significant risks, measures the frequency and impact of all the risks, draws all the identified risks in the chart, and describes how to manage or mitigate the risks. The dangerous risks which have high frequency and high impact are: 1) Many car drivers get the driving license without taking a driving course and without learning carefully the the...

  13. Risk analysis: assessing uncertainties beyond expected values and probabilities

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Aven, T. (Terje)

    2008-01-01

    ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 How to describe risk quantitatively . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2.1 Description of risk in a financial context . . . . . . . . . 2.2.2 Description...

  14. ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC RISK IN EUROPEAN INVESTMENT PROJECTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Margareta Stela FLORESCU

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Risk is a reality of the economic environment, with consequences which cannot always be foreseen or anticipated. Risk management becomes more stringent as potential exo/endogenous vulnerability factors are rapidly increasing. Identifying risk areas, structuring risk factors and defining their probability, optimal management of resources in order to reduce risk factors, creating alternatives for each high-probability risk factor are part of project risk management. Risk is quantified through probability and incidence and is assessed using quantitative and qualitative methods.

  15. The application of CFD to hydrogen risk analysis in nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Hui; Han Xu; Chang Meng; Wang Xiaofeng; Wang Shuguo; Lu Xinhua; Wu Lin

    2013-01-01

    Status of the hydrogen risk analysis method is systemically summarized in this paper and the advantages and limits of CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamic) in hydrogen risk analysis is discussed. The international experimental programs on the CFD hydrogen risk analysis are introduced in this paper. The application of CFD to nuclear power plant (NPP) hydrogen risk analysis is introduced in detail by taking EPR and Ling'ao NPP for example. In these bases, the CFD development prospect of hydrogen risk analysis is also summarized in this paper. (authors)

  16. An analysis of the public perception of flood risk on the Belgian coast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kellens, Wim; Zaalberg, Ruud; Neutens, Tijs; Vanneuville, Wouter; De Maeyer, Philippe

    2011-07-01

    In recent years, perception of flood risks has become an important topic to policy makers concerned with risk management and safety issues. Knowledge of the public risk perception is considered a crucial aspect in modern flood risk management as it steers the development of effective and efficient flood mitigation strategies. This study aimed at gaining insight into the perception of flood risks along the Belgian coast. Given the importance of the tourism industry on the Belgian coast, the survey considered both inhabitants and residential tourists. Based on actual expert's risk assessments, a high and a low risk area were selected for the study. Risk perception was assessed on the basis of scaled items regarding storm surges and coastal flood risks. In addition, various personal and residence characteristics were measured. Using multiple regression analysis, risk perception was found to be primarily influenced by actual flood risk estimates, age, gender, and experience with previous flood hazards. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  17. Contribuições da Análise Conversacional ao estudo do traumatismo craneo-encefálico: relato de um caso Contributions of Conversation Analysis to the study of traumatic brain injury: a single case report

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Véronique Agnes Guernet Steiner

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available A persistência de dificuldades no processo de comunicação em sujeitos acometidos por um traumatismo craneo-encefálico requer a utilização de instrumentos de avaliação, sensíveis às alterações lingüístico-cognitivas apresentadas, que possam facilitar a reintegração desses indivíduos na sociedade. O presente estudo de caso investiga as contribuições da Análise Conversacional, na avaliação das habilidades funcionais de um jovem de 27 anos, acometido por um traumatismo craneo-encefálico grave. Analisa uma interação conversacional espontânea por meio do estudo do mecanismo colaborativo da tomada de turno, do gerenciamento do tópico e das reformulações, comparando os resultados com testes formais de linguagem. Discute as contribuições dessa abordagem ao processo de reabilitação fonoaudiológica. Enquanto os testes formais não indicaram alterações de linguagem, a Análise Conversacional permitiu, ao analisar a seqüência de turnos e as reações mútuas dos interlocutores, identificar problemas comunicativos e verificar como os interlocutores lidavam com os mesmos. A Análise Conversacional mostrou-se sensível às alterações lingüístico-cognitivas apresentadas pelo traumatismo craneo-encefálico, fornecendo elementos concretos para, no processo de reabilitação, abordar, de forma organizada, o discurso mais utilizado no cotidiano.The persistence of communication impairments in individuals who sustained a traumatic brain injury requires the use of sensitive tools to evaluate the linguistic-cognitive problems they present, aiming at their reintegration in society. This single case study investigates the contributions of Conversation Analysis to the evaluation of the pragmatic abilities of a 27 year-old man who sustained a severe traumatic brain injury. It analyses a spontaneous conversational interaction through the study of the collaborative mechanism of turn-taking, topic management and repairs, comparing the

  18. Estudo multicasos sobre atividades inovativas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sonia Regina Hierro Parolin

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Em estudos sobre competitividade argumenta-se que as empresas necessitam de estratégias baseadas em inovações e de capacidades internas em constantes e intensas transformações, não somente nos padrões tecnológicos, mas também no encadeamento do processo de gestão das atividades inovativas, como processos dinâmicos, não lineares e diversificados, em função de múltiplos fatores dos ambientes interno e externo. Para contribuir com essas discussões, neste artigo apresenta-se um estudo multicasos em quatro indústrias de médio e grande portes, de segmentos, densidades tecnológicas e históricos com inovações diferentes entre si. Como principais resultados, salientam-se o encadeamento das atividades inovativas como parte de uma estratégia organizacional para obter resultados com inovação e a afluência de todas as pessoas, e não somente as alocadas em pesquisa e desenvolvimento, para o cumprimento dessa estratégia.

  19. Phytochemical analysis of cultivated specimens of cumaru (Amburana cearensis A. C. Smith.);Estudo fitoquimico de especimes cultivados de cumaru (Amburana cearensis A. C. Smith.)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Canuto, Kirley Marques; Silveira, Edilberto Rocha, E-mail: kirley@cnpat.embrapa.b [Universidade Federal do Ceara (UFC), Fortaleza, CE (Brazil). Dept. de Quimica Organica e Inorganica; Bezerra, Antonio Marcos Esmeraldo [Universidade Federal do Ceara (UFC), Fortaleza, CE (Brazil). Dept. de Fitotecnia

    2010-07-01

    Due to the threat of extinction of Amburana cearensis, a tree of medicinal importance for the Northeastern Brazil, a phytochemical analysis was performed with specimens obtained by seed germination. Ten compounds were isolated and identified by spectroscopic methods and comparison with literature data. p-Hydroxybenzoic acid, ayapin, (E/Z)-melilotosides are being reported for the first time for the genus, besides coumarin, isokaempferide, vanillic acid, protocatechuic acid, amburosides A and B which have already been found in the trunk bark. Based on physical and NMR spectroscopy evidences the structures of several melilotosides already described in the literature have been suggested to be revised. (author)

  20. RADTRAN 5 - A computer code for transportation risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neuhauser, K.S.; Kanipe, F.L.

    1993-01-01

    The RADTRAN 5 computer code has been developed to estimate radiological and nonradiological risks of radioactive materials transportation. RADTRAN 5 is written in ANSI standard FORTRAN 77; the code contains significant advances in the methodology first pioneered with the LINK option of RADTRAN 4. A major application of the LINK methodology is route-specific analysis. Another application is comparisons of attributes along the same route segments. Nonradiological risk factors have been incorporated to allow users to estimate nonradiological fatalities and injuries that might occur during the transportation event(s) being analyzed. These fatalities include prompt accidental fatalities from mechanical causes. Values of these risk factors for the United States have been made available in the code as optional defaults. Several new health effects models have been published in the wake of the Hiroshima-Nagasaki dosimetry reassessment, and this has emphasized the need for flexibility in the RADTRAN approach to health-effects calculations. Therefore, the basic set of health-effects conversion equations in RADTRAN have been made user-definable. All parameter values can be changed by the user, but a complete set of default values are available for both the new International Commission on Radiation Protection model (ICRP Publication 60) and the recent model of the U.S. National Research Council's Committee on the Biological Effects of Radiation (BEIR V). The meteorological input data tables have been modified to permit optional entry of maximum downwind distances for each dose isopleth. The expected dose to an individual in each isodose area is also calculated and printed automatically. Examples are given that illustrate the power and flexibility of the RADTRAN 5 computer code. (J.P.N.)

  1. Postpartum Depression in Women: A Risk Factor Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaidi, Farheen; Nigam, Aruna; Anjum, Ruby; Agarwalla, Rashmi

    2017-08-01

    Postpartum Depression (PPD) is a known entity affecting not only the women but the whole family. It affects women more harshly and chronically due to their increased stress sensitivity, maladaptive coping strategies and multiple social roles in the community. To estimate the commonly associated risk factors of PPD among the women coming to a tertiary hospital in New Delhi, India. It was a longitudinal study conducted at the antenatal clinic for a period of one year. Total 260 women were screened at > 36 weeks of gestation, of which 149 postnatal women completed the questionnaire for PPD at six weeks of their delivery. The inform consent, demographical data and obstetrical details from each participant was taken before commencing the screening. Various risk factors and their association were determined by odds-ratio and significant association was accepted at order to identify the most important confounding variables, logistic regression analysis was used. PPD is a common mental health problem seen among the postnatal women as it was found in 12.75% (19 out of 149) of subjects at six weeks of their delivery. Moreover, it has significant association with the young maternal age (p-value=0.040), birth of the female child (p-value=0.015), previous stressful life events (p-value= 0.003), low self-esteem and feeling of loneliness (p-value=0.007). This study provides important information regarding the risk factors associated with development of PPD in this region of India. Female sex of the new born and the younger age play an important role in the development of PPD.

  2. Beyond risk: a psychometric and cultural analysis of risk percepion in Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Byung-Sun; Chung, Ik Jae

    2002-01-01

    A survey of technological risk perception in Korea was administered in 2001 with a special emphasis on nuclear risks. This paper summarizes the characteristics of risk perception through the analytic lens of psychometric paradigm. A group of experts identified 8 dimensions of risk; voluntariness, severity, effect manifestation, exposure pattern, controllability, familiarity, benefit and necessity. The survey with sample size of 1870 evaluates the perceived level of 25 technological risks including transportation, chemicals, environmental, industrial, as well as nuclear areas. Research findings confirm that the risk characteristics or dimensions are significant predictors of risk perception. Nuclear risks are perceived as involuntary, catastrophic, delayed, occasional, controllable, beneficiary, unfamiliar, and necessary. The paper underlines the need and the importance of nuclear power generation as an environmentally-friendly energy resource in Korea. Effective risk communication can improve the awareness and the understanding of nuclear risks as well as other technological risk, and ultimately foster the public acceptance of nuclear facilities

  3. Analysis of Risk Optimization on the Industrial Area Around

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sony, DT; Demon-Handoyo

    2000-01-01

    Indonesia as an industrial country, there are large industrial area whichis directly or indirectly have an effect to human health by routine dischargeof waste from industrial installations. So, the criteria limit must bedetermined to regulate industrial area. The PRA method (Probabilistic RiskAssessment) is used in the nuclear technology especially reactor safetytechnology could be applied to accommodate those problems. The principles ofPRA method is to determine probability and consequences for accident ofindustrial plant or transportation of product. The analysis procedureincludes classification of industry activity type and inventories, estimationof external consequences, estimation of probability for installation andtransportation accident, determination of social risk and prioritization ofrisks. Calculation of consequence is based on the lost of life which isaffected by fire, toxic and explosive. The calculation for one industrialarea simple model as case study was done. From the calculation result, theconsequences value of 0 - 25 persons/event; 26 - 50 persons/event; 51 - 75persons/event, 625 - 650 persons/event and the event probability value of1.10 -2 to 3.10 -8 are obtained. The optimization value of industrial areaaround can be determined by using combination of probability value andconsequences value. (author)

  4. Statistically based uncertainty assessments in nuclear risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spencer, F.W.; Diegert, K.V.; Easterling, R.G.

    1987-01-01

    Over the last decade, the problems of estimation and uncertainty assessment in probabilistics risk assessment (PRAs) have been addressed in a variety of NRC and industry-sponsored projects. These problems have received attention because of a recognition that major uncertainties in risk estimation exist, which can be reduced by collecting more and better data and other information, and because of a recognition that better methods for assessing these uncertainties are needed. In particular, a clear understanding of the nature and magnitude of various sources of uncertainty is needed to facilitate descision-making on possible plant changes and research options. Recent PRAs have employed methods of probability propagation, sometimes involving the use of Bayes Theorem, and intended to formalize the use of ''engineering judgment'' or ''expert opinion.'' All sources, or feelings, of uncertainty are expressed probabilistically, so that uncertainty analysis becomes simply a matter of probability propagation. Alternatives to forcing a probabilistic framework at all stages of a PRA are a major concern in this paper, however

  5. Risk Analysis of Coastal Disaster of Semarang City, Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sunaryo; Ambariyanto; Sugianto, Denny Nugroho; Helmi, Muhammad; Kaimuddin, Awaluddin Halirin; Indarjo, Agus

    2018-02-01

    Coastal areas are highly vulnerable to disasters, as they are affected by events occurring both on land and at sea. In the development of cities in these areas, information on vulnerability levels is needed as a consideration in determining policy. This study aims to identify potential vulnerability of Semarang city, and to investigate the potential of hazard and disaster risk levels of the city. The study was conducted in 17 villages in the northern coastal area of Semarang. The assessment approach used was score analysis to some variables, i.e geomorphology, erosion, coastal slope, waves and socio-economic aspects. The research showed that the highest level of coastal vulnerability in the Semarang city were at three villages i.e.Terboyo Kulon, Terboyo Wetan and Trimulyo with value of 4.5; while the lowest level were at the Maron beach, Marina beach and Tanah Mas with value of 2.8. The highest potential coastal hazard in the Semarang city were at two villages i.e. Tanjung Mas and Tambak Lorok with value of 4.5; and the lowest value were in the village of Randugarut, Karanganyar, Tugurejo, Marina beach and Tanah Mas with value of 1.25.The highest level of coastal risk in the Semarang city were in the Trimulyo village with value of 3.13; and the lowest level were in the Marina beach and Tanah mas with value of 1.32.

  6. Cost risk analysis of radioactive waste management Preliminary study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Forsstroem, J.

    2006-12-01

    This work begins with exposition of the basics of risk analysis. These basics are then applied to the Finnish radioactive waste disposal environment in which the nuclear power companies are responsible for all costs of radioactive waste management including longterm disposal of spent fuel. Nuclear power companies prepare cost estimates of the waste disposal on a yearly basis to support the decision making on accumulation of resources to the nuclear waste disposal fund. These cost estimates are based on the cost level of the ongoing year. A Monte Carlo simulation model of the costs of the waste disposal system was defined and it was used to produce preliminary results of its cost risk characteristics. Input data was synthesised by modifying the original coefficients of cost uncertainty to define a cost range for each cost item. This is a suitable method for demonstrating results obtainable by the model but it is not accurate enough for supporting decision making. Two key areas of further development were identified: the input data preparation and identifying and handling of (i.e. eliminating or merging) interacting cost elements in the simulation model. Further development in both of the mentioned areas can be carried out by co-operating with the power companies as they are the sources of the original data. (orig.)

  7. Fatores de risco para mortalidade fetal em uma maternidade do Sistema Único de Saúde, Rio de Janeiro, Brasil: estudo caso-controle Risk factors for fetal mortality in a public maternity hospital in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: a case-control study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandra Costa Fonseca

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available A mortalidade fetal, apesar de elevada no Brasil, é pouco estudada quanto à sua determinação. Um estudo caso-controle aninhado foi feito para investigar os determinantes da mortalidade fetal em uma população usuária dos serviços públicos de uma região do Rio de Janeiro, de 2002 a 2004. Os dados foram coletados por meio de entrevista com as puérperas e complementados em prontuários e cartões de pré-natal. Os casos foram óbitos fetais com peso igual ou superior a 500g e os controles foram nascidos vivos no mesmo período. Para análise estatística, usou-se um modelo hierárquico de fatores sócio-econômicos e psicossociais (nível distal, reprodutivos, comportamentais e assistenciais (intermediário e características biológicas do feto (proximal. Destacaram-se vínculo empregatício, situação marital estável, acompanhante na admissão e pré-natal adequado como protetores de mortalidade fetal, enquanto violência doméstica, morbidade na gravidez e crescimento fetal restrito aumentaram o risco. O pré-natal se mostrou importante estratégia de redução do risco nesta população.Stillbirth rate is high in Brazil, and it is important to identify its determinants. A nested case-control was conducted to explore the determinants of fetal death in a population treated at public services in Rio de Janeiro from 2002 to 2004. Data were collected from mothers' interviews and medical records. A structured model was proposed to perform statistical analysis, attributing hierarchical levels: socioeconomic factors (distal level, reproductive, behavioral, and healthcare determinants (intermediate level, and fetal biological characteristics (proximal level. According to the findings, work stability, stable marital status, presence of a companion during admission, and adequate prenatal care had a protective effect against fetal death, while domestic violence, maternal morbidity, and intrauterine growth restriction increased the risk. Quality

  8. Yucca Mountain transportation routes: Preliminary characterization and risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Souleyrette, R.R. II; Sathisan, S.K.; di Bartolo, R.

    1991-01-01

    In this study, rail and highway routes which may be used for shipments of high-level nuclear waste to a proposed repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada are characterized. This characterization facilitates three types of impact analysis: comparative study, limited worst-case assessment, and more sophisticated probabilistic risk assessment techniques. Data for relative and absolute impact measures are provided to support comparisons of routes based on selected characteristics. A worst-case scenario assessment is included to determine potentially critical and most likely places for accidents or incidents to occur. The assessment facilitated by the data in this study is limited because impact measures are restricted to the identification of potential areas or persons affected. No attempt is made to quantify the magnitude of these impacts. Most likely locations for accidents to occur are determined relative to other locations within the scope of this study. Independent factors and historical trends used to identify these likely locations are only proxies for accident probability

  9. [Immunologic risk analysis of blood transfusion: 1991-1998].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rouger, P; Le Pennec, P Y; Noizat-Pirenne, F

    2000-02-01

    The immunologic risk associated to erythrocyte transfusions is bound to the polymorphism of blood group systems and to the respect of blood transfusion regulations. The results of three studies are presented, which were carried out respectively by the French Society of Blood Transfusion, the National Institute of Blood Transfusion and the National Haemovigilance Network. Two hundred and twenty-seven cases of immunologic accidents are analysed using the Kaplan's interpretation model and the traditional method of process analysis. The results show three critical factors in the occurrence of this type of incident: the relevance of the clinical examinations prescribed, the way in which the biological results are taken into account, and the relationship/exchange of information between private and public hospitals, and blood transfusion centers.

  10. Risk analysis of geological disposal of radioactive waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Girardi, F.; de Marsily, G.; Weber, J.

    1980-01-01

    The problems of risk analysis of geological disposal of radioactive waste are briefly summarized. Several characteristics, such as the very long time span considered, make it rather unique among the problems of modern society. The safety of nuclear waste disposal in geological formations is based on several barriers, natural and man-made, which prevent disposed radionuclides from reaching the biosphere. They include a) the physico-chemical form of conditioned waste, b) the waste container, c) the geological isolation, d) buffering and backfilling materials, radionuclide retention in the geosphere and e) environmental dilution and isolation processes. The knowledge available on each barrier and its modelling is reviewed. Specific disposal strategies in clay, granite and salt formations are considered, outlining the performance of the barriers in each particular strategy, and results obtained in preliminary evaluations

  11. OVERVIEW OF THE SAPHIRE PROBABILISTIC RISK ANALYSIS SOFTWARE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Curtis L.; Wood, Ted; Knudsen, James; Ma, Zhegang

    2016-10-01

    The Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE) is a software application developed for performing a complete probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) using a personal computer (PC) running the Microsoft Windows operating system. SAPHIRE Version 8 is funded by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and developed by the Idaho National Laboratory (INL). INL's primary role in this project is that of software developer and tester. However, INL also plays an important role in technology transfer by interfacing and supporting SAPHIRE users, who constitute a wide range of PRA practitioners from the NRC, national laboratories, the private sector, and foreign countries. In this paper, we provide an overview of the current technical capabilities found in SAPHIRE Version 8, including the user interface and enhanced solving algorithms.

  12. Design of process displays based on risk analysis techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lundtang Paulsen, J.

    2004-05-01

    This thesis deals with the problems of designing display systems for process plants. We state the reasons why it is important to discuss information systems for operators in a control room, especially in view of the enormous amount of information available in computer-based supervision systems. The state of the art is discussed: How are supervision systems designed today and why? Which strategies are used? What kind of research is going on? Four different plants and their display systems, designed by the author, are described and discussed. Next we outline different methods for eliciting knowledge of a plant, particularly the risks, which is necessary information for the display designer. A chapter presents an overview of the various types of operation references: constitutive equations, set points, design parameters, component characteristics etc., and their validity in different situations. On the basis of her experience with the design of display systems; with risk analysis methods and from 8 years, as an engineer-on-shift at a research reactor, the author developed a method to elicit necessary information to the operator. The method, a combination of a Goal-Tree and a Fault-Tree, is described in some detail. Finally we address the problem of where to put the dot and the lines: when all information is on the table, how should it be presented most adequately. Included, as an appendix is a paper concerning the analysis of maintenance reports and visualization of their information. The purpose was to develop a software tool for maintenance supervision of components in a nuclear power plant. (au)

  13. Análise exploratória aplicada no estudo de medicamentos contendo piroxicam Exploratory analysis applied in study of pharmaceutical formulations with piroxicam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Graciele Parisotto

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available A identificação de diferentes formulações de medicamentos manipulados contendo piroxicam foi estudada, empregando espectros de reflexão difusa no infravermelho médio com transformada de Fourier (DRIFTS, em associação com a técnica de análise por agrupamentos hierárquicos (AAH. Os espectros de amostras, de 5 diferentes farmácias de manipulação, contendo piroxicam (10 mg e 20 mg e seus respectivos excipientes, foram adquiridos em um espectrofotômetro NICOLET Magna 550, obtendo-se duas réplicas de cada amostra. Para a análise multivariada, as informações espectrais foram tratadas no programa Pirouette® 2.7 da Infometrix, utilizando-se as regiões espectrais 1340 a 1470 cm-1, 1535 a 1680 cm-1, 2800 a 3004 cm-1 e 3290 a 3400 cm-1. Os dendogramas foram construídos com os dados auto-escalados, e correção do espalhamento da luz (MSC, utilizando três tipos de construção: simples, flexível e incremental. Com a aplicação da análise hierárquica de agrupamentos constatou-se a formação de dois grupos distintos, um contendo os princípios ativos, e outro contendo os excipientes. Os resultados demonstram que a técnica DRIFTS em conjunto com análise por agrupamentos hierárquicos constitui uma alternativa para o controle de qualidade dos processos de produção de medicamentos.The identification of different pharmaceutical formulations with piroxicam was studied, using spectra of diffuse reflectance infrared Fourier transform spectroscopy (DRIFTS, in association with hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA technique. The spectra of samples of the 5 different compounding pharmacies, containing 10 or 20 mg of piroxicam and its respective inactive ingredients, had been collected in Nicolet Magna 550 spectrophotometer. For the multivariate analysis, the spectral information had been processed in software package Pirouette® 2.7 of the Infometrix. The dendograms had been constructed with the autoscaled data, and multiplicative scatter

  14. Risk analysis for decision support in electricity distribution system asset management: methods and frameworks for analysing intangible risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nordgaard, Dag Eirik

    2010-04-15

    During the last 10 to 15 years electricity distribution companies throughout the world have been ever more focused on asset management as the guiding principle for their activities. Within asset management, risk is a key issue for distribution companies, together with handling of cost and performance. There is now an increased awareness of the need to include risk analyses into the companies' decision making processes. Much of the work on risk in electricity distribution systems has focused on aspects of reliability. This is understandable, since it is surely an important feature of the product delivered by the electricity distribution infrastructure, and it is high on the agenda for regulatory authorities in many countries. However, electricity distribution companies are also concerned with other risks relevant for their decision making. This typically involves intangible risks, such as safety, environmental impacts and company reputation. In contrast to the numerous methodologies developed for reliability risk analysis, there are relatively few applications of structured analyses to support decisions concerning intangible risks, even though they represent an important motivation for decisions taken in electricity distribution companies. The overall objective of this PhD work has been to explore risk analysis methods that can be used to improve and support decision making in electricity distribution system asset management, with an emphasis on the analysis of intangible risks. The main contributions of this thesis can be summarised as: An exploration and testing of quantitative risk analysis (QRA) methods to support decisions concerning intangible risks; The development of a procedure for using life curve models to provide input to QRA models; The development of a framework for risk-informed decision making where QRA are used to analyse selected problems; In addition, the results contribute to clarify the basic concepts of risk, and highlight challenges

  15. Comparative risk analysis for the Rocky Flats Plant integrated project planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, M.E.; Shain, D.I.

    1994-01-01

    The Rocky Flats Plant is developing, with active stakeholder a comprehensive planning strategy that will support transition of the Rocky Flats Plant from a nuclear weapons production facility to site cleanup and final disposition. Final disposition of the Rocky Flats Plant materials and contaminants requires consideration of the interrelated nature of sitewide problems, such as material movement and disposition, facility and land use endstates, costs relative risks to workers and the public, and waste disposition. Comparative Risk Analysis employs both incremental risk and cumulative risk evaluations to compare risks from postulated options or endstates. These postulated options or endstates can be various remedial alternatives, or future endstate uses of federal agency land. Currently, there does not exist any approved methodology that aggregates various incremental risk estimates. Comparative Risk Analysis has been developed to aggregate various incremental risk estimates to develop a site cumulative risk estimate. This paper discusses development of the Comparative Risk Analysis methodology, stakeholder participation and lessons learned from these challenges

  16. Analysis of cogeneration system using fuel cell: cases study; Analise de sistema de cogeracao utilizando celula de combustivel: estudo de casos

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Silveira, Jose Luz; Leal, Elisangela Martins [UNESP, Guaratingueta, SP (Brazil). Escola de Engenharia. Dept. de Energia]. E-mails: joseluz@feg.unesp.br; elisange@feg.unesp.br

    2000-07-01

    In this paper, a methodology for the study of a molten carbonate fuel cell cogeneration system associated to an absorption refrigeration system, for the electricity and cold water production, and applied to two establishments, is presented. This system permits the recovery of waste heat, available between 600 deg C e 700 deg C. Initially, some technical information about the most diffusing types of the fuel cell demonstration in the world are presented. In the next step, an energetic, exergetic and economic analysis are carry out, seeking the use of fuel cells, in conditions of prices and interest of Brazil. In conclusion, the fuel cell cogeneration system may have an excellent opportunity to strengthen the decentralized energy production in the Brazilian energy scene. (author)

  17. Arsenic metabolism and cancer risk: A meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gamboa-Loira, Brenda; Cebrián, Mariano E; Franco-Marina, Francisco; López-Carrillo, Lizbeth

    2017-07-01

    To describe the studies that have reported association measures between risk of cancer and the percentage distribution of urinary inorganic arsenic (iAs) metabolites by anatomical site, in non-ecological epidemiological studies. Studies were identified in the PubMed database in the period from 1990 to 2015. Inclusion criteria were: non-ecological epidemiological study, with histologically confirmed cancer cases, reporting the percentage distribution of inorganic arsenic (iAs), monomethylated (MMA) and dimethylated (DMA) metabolites, as well as association measures with confidence intervals (CI) between cancer and %iAs and/or %MMA and/or %DMA. A descriptive meta-analysis was performed by the method of the inverse of the variance for the fixed effects model and the DerSimonian and Laird's method for the random effects model. Heterogeneity was tested using the Q statistic and stratifying for epidemiological design and total As in urine. The possibility of publication bias was assessed through Begg's test. A total of 13 eligible studies were found, most of them were performed in Taiwan and focused on skin and bladder cancer. The positive association between %MMA and various types of cancer was consistent, in contrast to the negative relationship between %DMA and cancer that was inconsistent. The summary risk of bladder (OR=1.79; 95% CI: 1.42, 2.26, n=4 studies) and lung (OR=2.44; 95% CI: 1.57, 3.80, n=2 studies) cancer increased significantly with increasing %MMA, without statistical heterogeneity. In contrast, lung cancer risk was inversely related to %DMA (OR=0.58; 95% CI: 0.36, 0.93, n=2 studies), also without significant heterogeneity. These results were similar after stratifying by epidemiological design and total As in urine. No evidence of publication bias was found. These findings provide additional support that methylation needs to be taken into account when assessing the potential iAs carcinogenicity risk. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  18. HANFORD SAFETY ANALYSIS and RISK ASSESSMENT HANDBOOK (SARAH)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    EVANS, C.B.

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of the Hanford Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) is to support the development of safety basis documentation for Hazard Category 2 and 3 (HC-2 and 3) U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear facilities to meet the requirements of 10 CFR 830, ''Nuclear Safety Management''. Subpart B, ''Safety Basis Requirements.'' Consistent with DOE-STD-3009-94, Change Notice 2, ''Preparation Guide for U.S. Department of Energy Nonreactor Nuclear Facility Documented Safety Analyses'' (STD-3009), and DOE-STD-3011-2002, ''Guidance for Preparation of Basis for Interim Operation (BIO) Documents'' (STD-3011), the Hanford SARAH describes methodology for performing a safety analysis leading to development of a Documented Safety Analysis (DSA) and derivation of Technical Safety Requirements (TSR), and provides the information necessary to ensure a consistently rigorous approach that meets DOE expectations. The DSA and TSR documents, together with the DOE-issued Safety Evaluation Report (SER), are the basic components of facility safety basis documentation. For HC-2 or 3 nuclear facilities in long-term surveillance and maintenance (S and M), for decommissioning activities, where source term has been eliminated to the point that only low-level, residual fixed contamination is present, or for environmental remediation activities outside of a facility structure, DOE-STD-1120-98, ''Integration of Environment, Safety, and Health into Facility Disposition Activities'' (STD-1120), may serve as the basis for the DSA. HC-2 and 3 environmental remediation sites also are subject to the hazard analysis methodologies of this standard

  19. Risco de quedas em idosos com doença de Parkinson e demência de Alzheimer: um estudo transversal Risk of falls among elderly people with Parkinson's disease and Alzheimer's dementia: a cross-sectional study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G Christofoletti

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available OBJETIVO: Comparar o risco de quedas entre idosos com doença de Parkinson (DP, demência de Alzheimer (DA e saudáveis (controle. Além disso, pretendeu-se analisar as relações do risco de quedas com declínio cognitivo e com nível de atividade física. MÉTODO: vinte idosos, sendo sete com DP (69,57 ± 2,40 anos, seis com DA (77,5 ± 2,32 anos e sete saudáveis (74,71 ± 2,58 anos, foram avaliados por meio dos seguintes instrumentos: Escala de Equilíbrio Funcional de Berg (EEFB, Timed Up and Go test (TUG, Mini-Exame do Estado Mental (MEEM e Questionário Baecke Modificado para Idosos (QBMI. RESULTADOS: O teste de Kruskal-Wallis apontou diferença significativa entre os grupos, tanto em relação à EEFB (KW=9,67, pOBJECTIVE: To compare the risk of falls among elderly people with Parkinson's disease (PD and Alzheimer's dementia (AD and among healthy peers (controls. In addition, the aim was to analyze relationships between risk of falls and cognitive decay and between risk of falls and physical activity. METHOD: Twenty subjects were assessed: seven with PD (69.57 ± 2.40 years, six with AD (77.5 ± 2.32 years and seven healthy peers (74.71 ± 2.58 years. The following instruments were used: Berg Balance Scale (BBS, Timed Up and Go test (TUG, Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE and Modified Baecke Questionnaire for Older Adults (MBQOA. RESULTS: The Kruskal-Wallis (KW test indicated significant differences between the groups, relating to BBS (KW = 9.67, p<0.01 and TUG (KW = 9.14, p<0.01, for time expended, and KW = 10.04, p<0.01, for number of steps. Bonferroni post-hoc pairs analysis showed that balance was highly compromised in the AD group, such that lower MMSE values were observed. The PD group was characterized by presenting higher levels of physical activity. Spearman's test produced low correlations between MMSE and BBS (r s=0.59; MMSE and TUG (r s=-0.52 and r s=-0.62; MBQOA and BBS (r s=0.54; and MBQOA and TUG (r s=-0.39 and r s=-0

  20. Study of Hip Fracture Risk using Tree Structured Survival Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Y

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available In dieser Studie wird das Hüftfraktur-Risiko bei postmenopausalen Frauen untersucht, indem die Frauen in verschiedene Subgruppen hinsichtlich dieses Risikos klassifiziert werden. Frauen in einer gemeinsamen Subgruppe haben ein ähnliches Risiko, hingegen in verschiedenen Subgruppen ein unterschiedliches Hüftfraktur-Risiko. Die Subgruppen wurden mittels der Tree Structured Survival Analysis (TSSA aus den Daten von 7.665 Frauen der SOF (Study of Osteoporosis Fracture ermittelt. Bei allen Studienteilnehmerinnen wurde die Knochenmineraldichte (BMD von Unterarm, Oberschenkelhals, Hüfte und Wirbelsäule gemessen. Die Zeit von der BMD-Messung bis zur Hüftfraktur wurde als Endpunkt notiert. Eine Stichprobe von 75% der Teilnehmerinnen wurde verwendet, um die prognostischen Subgruppen zu bilden (Trainings-Datensatz, während die anderen 25% als Bestätigung der Ergebnisse diente (Validierungs-Datensatz. Aufgrund des Trainings-Datensatzes konnten mittels TSSA 4 Subgruppen identifiziert werden, deren Hüftfraktur-Risiko bei einem Follow-up von im Mittel 6,5 Jahren bei 19%, 9%, 4% und 1% lag. Die Einteilung in die Subgruppen erfolgte aufgrund der Bewertung der BMD des Ward'schen Dreiecks sowie des Oberschenkelhalses und nach dem Alter. Diese Ergebnisse konnten mittels des Validierungs-Datensatzes reproduziert werden, was die Sinnhaftigkeit der Klassifizierungregeln in einem klinischen Setting bestätigte. Mittels TSSA war eine sinnvolle, aussagekräftige und reproduzierbare Identifikation von prognostischen Subgruppen, die auf dem Alter und den BMD-Werten beruhen, möglich. In this paper we studied the risk of hip fracture for post-menopausal women by classifying women into different subgroups based on their risk of hip fracture. The subgroups were generated such that all the women in a particular subgroup had relatively similar risk while women belonging to two different subgroups had rather different risks of hip fracture. We used the Tree Structured

  1. Imminent Cardiac Risk Assessment via Optical Intravascular Biochemical Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wetzel, D.; Wetzel, L; Wetzel, M; Lodder, R

    2009-01-01

    Heart disease is by far the biggest killer in the United States, and type II diabetes, which affects 8% of the U.S. population, is on the rise. In many cases, the acute coronary syndrome and/or sudden cardiac death occurs without warning. Atherosclerosis has known behavioral, genetic and dietary risk factors. However, our laboratory studies with animal models and human post-mortem tissue using FT-IR microspectroscopy reveal the chemical microstructure within arteries and in the arterial walls themselves. These include spectra obtained from the aortas of ApoE-/- knockout mice on sucrose and normal diets showing lipid deposition in the former case. Also pre-aneurysm chemical images of knockout mouse aorta walls, and spectra of plaque excised from a living human patient are shown for comparison. In keeping with the theme of the SPEC 2008 conference Spectroscopic Diagnosis of Disease this paper describes the background and potential value of a new catheter-based system to provide in vivo biochemical analysis of plaque in human coronary arteries. We report the following: (1) results of FT-IR microspectroscopy on animal models of vascular disease to illustrate the localized chemical distinctions between pathological and normal tissue, (2) current diagnostic techniques used for risk assessment of patients with potential unstable coronary syndromes, and (3) the advantages and limitations of each of these techniques illustrated with patent care histories, related in the first person, by the physician coauthors. Note that the physician comments clarify the contribution of each diagnostic technique to imminent cardiac risk assessment in a clinical setting, leading to the appreciation of what localized intravascular chemical analysis can contribute as an add-on diagnostic tool. The quality of medical imaging has improved dramatically since the turn of the century. Among clinical non-invasive diagnostic tools, laboratory tests of body fluids, EKG, and physical examination are

  2. Studies of trace element determinations in nails by neutron activation analysis method; Estudo de elementos traco em unhas pelo metodo de analise por ativacao com neutrons

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aguiar, Amilton Reinaldo; Saiki, Mitiko [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    1996-07-01

    The purpose of this work was to develop the neutron activation analysis for trace element determinations in nails in order to apply this method to the study of the cystic fibrosis disease. It was verified that the elements Al, As, Br, Ca, Cd, Cl, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, K, Mg, Mn, Na, Se and Zn can be determined by using short and long irradiations with thermal neutron flux from 10{sup 11} to 10{sup 13} n.cm{sup -2}.{sup -1} at the IEA-R1 nuclear research reactor. The washing solutions of triton-X100, NH{sub 4} OH and acetone were tested in order to eliminate external contaminants from the nail samples. The nail analyses of the individual fingers from both of hands showed that the samples must be collected from all the fingers from both of hands to have a representative sample. The precision and the accuracy of the results were also examined by analyzing NIES 10C Rice Flour, IUPAC Bowen's Kale and NIST 1572 Citrus Leaves reference materials. (author)

  3. Colestase neonatal prolongada: estudo prospectivo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    PRADO Elizabeth Teixeira Mendes Livramento

    1999-01-01

    Full Text Available Em razão da urgência de se decidir por um tratamento clínico ou por uma intervenção cirúrgica imediata, o estudo da colestase neonatal prolongada envolve dois objetivos básicos: o diagnóstico diferencial entre atresia biliar e hepatite neonatal e a pesquisa dos agentes etiológicos associados. Desta maneira, através de estudo prospectivo desenvolvido na década de 1970, foram avaliadas 77 crianças portadoras de colestase neonatal prolongada para estabelecer o diagnóstico diferencial entre atresia biliar e hepatite neonatal e, numa segunda fase, 108 crianças, visando esclarecer a etiopatogenia da colestase neonatal prolongada. Os resultados do diagnóstico diferencial revelaram que, dos 18 atributos avaliados, apenas oito mostraram-se bons indicadores de atresia biliar, em ordem decrescente: ductos proliferados (espaço-porta, fibrose (espaço-porta, colestase (espaço-porta, cor das fezes -- acolia, hepatomegalia, colestase canalicular (lóbulo, infiltrado (espaço-porta, células gigantes (lóbulo. Estes oito atributos foram então compostos, mediante uma ponderação, em um único indicador de grande poder discriminativo, capaz de decidir o diagnóstico diferencial em 99% dos casos. Quanto à etiopatogenia, registrou-se: vírus rubéola 0%, vírus herpes simples 0%, listeriose 0%, citomegalovirose 2,2%, vírus hepatite B 2,4%, toxoplasmose 2,8%, deficiência de alfa-1-antitripsina 13,1%, sífilis 21,1 %, auto-anticorpos hepáticos 58,4%. O trabalho desenvolvido mostra que as 8 variáveis mais decisivas, como indicadoras diferenciais entre atresia biliar e hepatite neonatal, permanecem como índices fundamentais, auxiliando, em conjunto com novos métodos diagnósticos, na composição de uma estratégia multifatorial cada vez menos invasiva e mais precisa. O estudo da etiopatogenia, dependente das condições epidemiológicas locais e da época, com a introdução de novos métodos diagnósticos, torna-se atualmente cada vez mais

  4. The health abnormalities under the technogenic exposures risks analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fedorova, E. V.; Malyshev, V. S.; Borovkova, A. M.

    2017-11-01

    A number of the medico-ecological orientation subjects are included in the curricula of the masters being trained in the teaching course 13.04.02 “Power industry and electrical equipment” and had elected the courses “Anthropogenic safety in power industry and electrical equipment” of the engineering ecology and labor safety department (EE and LS) of NRU “MPEI”. The anthropogenic safety specialist is to know all consequences suffers of such disciplines on account of the human person being influenced with the anthropogenic stress firstly. Energetic is to be obviously foreground in the environment pollution. Carbon, sulfurs, nitrogen oxides, heavy metals compounds, soot particles, benzapiren are arrived to the atmospheric air. The receipt of the harmful substances with an inhaled air leads to the respiratory organs pathology, organism adaptation properties tension and the population morbidity increase. The discipline “The Human physiology” developed on EE and LS chair and being taught of the first course of a magistracy first semester, helps to understand these above-mentioned processes. The general questions of human physiology being besides, all the students are gotten acquainted with ecological and production factors on a human body adverse impacts consequences and with the methods of its analysis, prevention and health risks studies. The most part of a course is presented with the practical trainings permitting the students to gain the basic skills of an organism functional condition main systems for analysis. The innovative “bronkhofonografiya” technique (with the CDC applications “Pattern-1” EE and LS chairs developed) is used for the respiratory organs conditions analysis along with the traditional spirometry methods.

  5. Estudo sobre os riscos da profissão de estivador do Porto do Mucuripe em Fortaleza Occupational risks among dock workers in the Port of Mucuripe, Fortaleza, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco Fábio Gadelha Cavalcante

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available Os estivadores do Porto do Mucuripe são trabalhadores sem vínculo empregatício com a Companhia Docas do Ceará. Atuam no convés e no porão dos navios, fazendo o embarque, o desembarque e a organização dos contêineres. Neste ambiente de constante exposição a riscos, o médico do trabalho é fundamental na organização de planos de prevenção de acidentes, de educação dos trabalhadores e de monitorização dos riscos. O objetivo do artigo é caracterizar e conhecer o estivador, correlacionar o ambiente portuário e o seu processo produtivo com os fatores de risco e os agravos associados, bem como ressaltar a importância da medicina do trabalho para o controle de tais riscos. O trabalho de campo foi desenvolvido nos meses de janeiro e de fevereiro de 2003, com a aplicação de 60 questionários aos estivadores. A análise dos dados evidencia que os principais problemas de saúde inerentes à profissão de estivador são, entre outros, os distúrbios osteoarticulares (hérnia de disco e desgastes na articulação do joelho e metabólicos (diabetes e hipertensão arterial. Estes se devem não só ao trabalho, mas também e, com grande influência, ao contexto de vida destes profissionais.The stevedores of the Port of Mucuripe are workers without employment bond with the Company Dock of Ceará. They act in the deck and the stowage of the ships, making the embarkment, the landing and the organization of containers. In this environment of constant exposition to risks, occupational physician is basic in the organization of plans of prevention of accidents, education of the workers and monitorization of the risks. The objective of this article is to characterize and to know the stevedore’s job, to correlate the port environment and its productive process with the factors of risk and the damages associates, as well as standing out the importance of the Occupational Medicine for the control of such risks. The fieldwork was developed in the

  6. Clinical risk analysis with failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) model in a dialysis unit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonfant, Giovanna; Belfanti, Pietro; Paternoster, Giuseppe; Gabrielli, Danila; Gaiter, Alberto M; Manes, Massimo; Molino, Andrea; Pellu, Valentina; Ponzetti, Clemente; Farina, Massimo; Nebiolo, Pier E

    2010-01-01

    The aim of clinical risk management is to improve the quality of care provided by health care organizations and to assure patients' safety. Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) is a tool employed for clinical risk reduction. We applied FMEA to chronic hemodialysis outpatients. FMEA steps: (i) process study: we recorded phases and activities. (ii) Hazard analysis: we listed activity-related failure modes and their effects; described control measures; assigned severity, occurrence and detection scores for each failure mode and calculated the risk priority numbers (RPNs) by multiplying the 3 scores. Total RPN is calculated by adding single failure mode RPN. (iii) Planning: we performed a RPNs prioritization on a priority matrix taking into account the 3 scores, and we analyzed failure modes causes, made recommendations and planned new control measures. (iv) Monitoring: after failure mode elimination or reduction, we compared the resulting RPN with the previous one. Our failure modes with the highest RPN came from communication and organization problems. Two tools have been created to ameliorate information flow: "dialysis agenda" software and nursing datasheets. We scheduled nephrological examinations, and we changed both medical and nursing organization. Total RPN value decreased from 892 to 815 (8.6%) after reorganization. Employing FMEA, we worked on a few critical activities, and we reduced patients' clinical risk. A priority matrix also takes into account the weight of the control measures: we believe this evaluation is quick, because of simple priority selection, and that it decreases action times.

  7. A Flood Risk Assessment of Quang Nam, Vietnam Using Spatial Multicriteria Decision Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chinh Luu

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Vietnam is highly vulnerable to flood and storm impacts. Holistic flood risk assessment maps that adequately consider flood risk factors of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability are not available. These are vital for flood risk preparedness and disaster mitigation measures at the local scale. Unfortunately, there is a lack of knowledge about spatial multicriteria decision analysis and flood risk analysis more broadly in Vietnam. In response to this need, we identify and quantify flood risk components in Quang Nam province through spatial multicriteria decision analysis. The study presents a new approach to local flood risk assessment mapping, which combines historical flood marks with exposure and vulnerability data. The flood risk map output could assist and empower decision-makers in undertaking flood risk management activities in the province. Our study demonstrates a methodology to build flood risk assessment maps using flood mark, exposure and vulnerability data, which could be applied in other provinces in Vietnam.

  8. RISK DISCLOSURE ANALYSIS IN THE CORPORATE GOVERNANCE ANNUAL REPORT USING FUZZY-SET QUALITATIVE COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pedro Carmona

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper explores the necessary and sufficient conditions of good Corporate Governance practices for high risk disclosure by firms in their Corporate Governance Annual Report. Additionally, we explore whether those recipes have changed during the financial crisis. With a sample of 271 Spanish listed companies, we applied fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis to a database of financial and non-financial data. We report that Board of Directors independence, size, level of activity and gender diversity, CEO duality, Audit Committee independence, being audited by the Big Four auditing firms and the presence of institutional investors are associated with high risk disclosure. The conditions included in almost every combination are the presence of institutional investors and being audited by the Big Four. We found similar combinations for 2006 and 2012, while the analysis for 2009 showed the lowest number of causal configurations.

  9. Risk-analysis of global climate tipping points

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frieler, Katja; Meinshausen, Malte; Braun, N [Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research e.V., Potsdam (Germany). PRIMAP Research Group; and others

    2012-09-15

    There are many elements of the Earth system that are expected to change gradually with increasing global warming. Changes might prove to be reversible after global warming returns to lower levels. But there are others that have the potential of showing a threshold behavior. This means that these changes would imply a transition between qualitatively disparate states which can be triggered by only small shifts in background climate (2). These changes are often expected not to be reversible by returning to the current level of warming. The reason for that is, that many of them are characterized by self-amplifying processes that could lead to a new internally stable state which is qualitatively different from before. There are different elements of the climate system that are already identified as potential tipping elements. This group contains the mass losses of the Greenland and the West-Antarctic Ice Sheet, the decline of the Arctic summer sea ice, different monsoon systems, the degradation of coral reefs, the dieback of the Amazon rainforest, the thawing of the permafrost regions as well as the release of methane hydrates (3). Crucially, these tipping elements have regional to global scale effects on human society, biodiversity and/or ecosystem services. Several examples may have a discernable effect on global climate through a large-scale positive feedback. This means they would further amplify the human induced climate change. These tipping elements pose risks comparable to risks found in other fields of human activity: high-impact events that have at least a few percent chance to occur classify as high-risk events. In many of these examples adaptation options are limited and prevention of occurrence may be a more viable strategy. Therefore, a better understanding of the processes driving tipping points is essential. There might be other tipping elements even more critical but not yet identified. These may also lie within our socio-economic systems that are

  10. [Analysis of risk factors associated with professional drivers’ work].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Czerwińska, Maja; Hołowko, Joanna; Stachowska, Ewa

    Professional driver is an occupation associated with high health risk. The factors which increase the risk of developing lifestyle diseases are closely related to working conditions. The aim of this study was to analyse the risk factors which are associated with professional drivers’ lifestyle. The material consisted of 23 articles from PubMed.gov. Risk factors related to drivers’ work have a signiicant impact on their health.

  11. Estudo da variabilidade do NDVI sobre o Brasil, utilizando-se a análise de agrupamentos Study of NDVI variability in Brazil using cluster analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helen da C. Gurgel

    2003-04-01

    Full Text Available Este trabalho analisa a variabilidade do NDVI (Índice de Vegetação por Diferença Normalizada sobre o Brasil, utilizando-se a análise de agrupamentos. As análises foram feitas através de imagens do sensor Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR para o período de janeiro de 1982 a dezembro de 1993. Os resultados obtidos mostram que na região Amazônica o ciclo anual do NDVI não é bem definido, visto que o máximo tipicamente ocorre em junho, dois meses após o período chuvoso, enquanto o mínimo se dá em dois períodos distintos: entre fevereiro e março e setembro e novembro. Na região central do Brasil, o cerrado apresenta um ciclo anual definido, com valores máximos de NDVI entre março e maio, e mínimos em setembro, final do período seco. Por outro lado, a vegetação das regiões da zona da mata nordestina e dos campos de Roraima apresentam um ciclo anual nítido, sendo que os maiores valores de NDVI ocorrem em junho e julho e os menores entre fevereiro e março, alguns meses antes do início das chuvas. No caso da região nordeste do Brasil, a caatinga mostra um ciclo anual bem definido, com um período seco marcante, sendo que os valores mais elevados de NDVI ocorrem entre os meses de abril e maio, que é o final da época das chuvas, e os menores em setembro e outubro. Em parte do Estado de Santa Catarina e no sul do Paraná, o ciclo anual das formações vegetais dominantes (floresta ombrófila aberta e floresta ombrófila mista não é muito nítido. No sul do Brasil, a região de estepes não apresenta ciclo anual nítido, os valores máximos de NDVI geralmente ocorrem entre março e junho e os valores mínimos no mês de agosto. Além disso, constatou-se que os eventos El Niño, independente da sua intensidade, afetam distintamente os vários tipos de vegetação.This paper deals with vegetation cover variability in Brazil using cluster analysis. The study was done using NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation

  12. Reliability and risk analysis data base development: an historical perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fragola, Joseph R.

    1996-01-01

    Collection of empirical data and data base development for use in the prediction of the probability of future events has a long history. Dating back at least to the 17th century, safe passage events and mortality events were collected and analyzed to uncover prospective underlying classes and associated class attributes. Tabulations of these developed classes and associated attributes formed the underwriting basis for the fledgling insurance industry. Much earlier, master masons and architects used design rules of thumb to capture the experience of the ages and thereby produce structures of incredible longevity and reliability (Antona, E., Fragola, J. and Galvagni, R. Risk based decision analysis in design. Fourth SRA Europe Conference Proceedings, Rome, Italy, 18-20 October 1993). These rules served so well in producing robust designs that it was not until almost the 19th century that the analysis (Charlton, T.M., A History Of Theory Of Structures In The 19th Century, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 1982) of masonry voussoir arches, begun by Galileo some two centuries earlier (Galilei, G. Discorsi e dimostrazioni mathematiche intorno a due nuove science, (Discourses and mathematical demonstrations concerning two new sciences, Leiden, The Netherlands, 1638), was placed on a sound scientific basis. Still, with