WorldWideScience

Sample records for risk analysis electronic

  1. Traceability and Risk Analysis Strategies for Addressing Counterfeit Electronics in Supply Chains for Complex Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DiMase, Daniel; Collier, Zachary A; Carlson, Jinae; Gray, Robin B; Linkov, Igor

    2016-10-01

    Within the microelectronics industry, there is a growing concern regarding the introduction of counterfeit electronic parts into the supply chain. Even though this problem is widespread, there have been limited attempts to implement risk-based approaches for testing and supply chain management. Supply chain risk management tends to focus on the highly visible disruptions of the supply chain instead of the covert entrance of counterfeits; thus counterfeit risk is difficult to mitigate. This article provides an overview of the complexities of the electronics supply chain, and highlights some gaps in risk assessment practices. In particular, this article calls for enhanced traceability capabilities to track and trace parts at risk through various stages of the supply chain. Placing the focus on risk-informed decision making through the following strategies is needed, including prioritization of high-risk parts, moving beyond certificates of conformance, incentivizing best supply chain management practices, adoption of industry standards, and design and management for supply chain resilience. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  2. Enabling More than Moore: Accelerated Reliability Testing and Risk Analysis for Advanced Electronics Packaging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghaffarian, Reza; Evans, John W.

    2014-01-01

    For five decades, the semiconductor industry has distinguished itself by the rapid pace of improvement in miniaturization of electronics products-Moore's Law. Now, scaling hits a brick wall, a paradigm shift. The industry roadmaps recognized the scaling limitation and project that packaging technologies will meet further miniaturization needs or ak.a "More than Moore". This paper presents packaging technology trends and accelerated reliability testing methods currently being practiced. Then, it presents industry status on key advanced electronic packages, factors affecting accelerated solder joint reliability of area array packages, and IPC/JEDEC/Mil specifications for characterizations of assemblies under accelerated thermal and mechanical loading. Finally, it presents an examples demonstrating how Accelerated Testing and Analysis have been effectively employed in the development of complex spacecraft thereby reducing risk. Quantitative assessments necessarily involve the mathematics of probability and statistics. In addition, accelerated tests need to be designed which consider the desired risk posture and schedule for particular project. Such assessments relieve risks without imposing additional costs. and constraints that are not value added for a particular mission. Furthermore, in the course of development of complex systems, variances and defects will inevitably present themselves and require a decision concerning their disposition, necessitating quantitative assessments. In summary, this paper presents a comprehensive view point, from technology to systems, including the benefits and impact of accelerated testing in offsetting risk.

  3. Risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baron, J.H.; Nunez McLeod, J.; Rivera, S.S.

    1997-01-01

    This book contains a selection of research works performed in the CEDIAC Institute (Cuyo National University) in the area of Risk Analysis, with specific orientations to the subjects of uncertainty and sensitivity studies, software reliability, severe accident modeling, etc. This volume presents important material for all those researches who want to have an insight in the risk analysis field, as a tool to solution several problems frequently found in the engineering and applied sciences field, as well as for the academic teachers who want to keep up to date, including the new developments and improvements continuously arising in this field [es

  4. SU-F-T-248: FMEA Risk Analysis Implementation (AAPM TG-100) in Total Skin Electron Irradiation Technique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ibanez-Rosello, B; Bautista-Ballesteros, J; Bonaque, J [Hospital La Fe, Valencia, Valencia (Spain); Perez-Calatayud, J [Hospital La Fe, Valencia, Valencia (Spain); Clinica Benidorm, Benidorm, Alicante (Spain); Gonzalez-Sanchis, A; Lopez-Torrecilla, J; Brualla-Gonzalez, L; Garcia-Hernandez, T; Vicedo-Gonzalez, A; Granero, D; Serrano, A; Borderia, B; Solera, C [Hospital General ERESA, Valencia, Valencia (Spain); Rosello, J [Hospital General ERESA, Valencia, Valencia (Spain); Universidad de Valencia, Valencia, Valencia (Spain)

    2016-06-15

    Purpose: Total Skin Electron Irradiation (TSEI) is a radiotherapy treatment which involves irradiating the entire body surface as homogeneously as possible. It is composed of an extensive multi-step technique in which quality management requires high consumption of resources and a fluid communication between the involved staff, necessary to improve the safety of treatment. The TG-100 proposes a new perspective of quality management in radiotherapy, presenting a systematic method of risk analysis throughout the global flow of the stages through the patient. The purpose of this work has been to apply TG-100 approach to the TSEI procedure in our institution. Methods: A multidisciplinary team specifically targeting TSEI procedure was formed, that met regularly and jointly developed the process map (PM), following TG-100 guidelines of the AAPM. This PM is a visual representation of the temporal flow of steps through the patient since start until the end of his stay in the radiotherapy service. Results: This is the first stage of the full risk analysis, which is being carried out in the center. The PM provides an overview of the process and facilitates the understanding of the team members who will participate in the subsequent analysis. Currently, the team is implementing the analysis of failure modes and effects (FMEA). The failure modes of each of the steps have been identified and assessors are assigning a value of severity (S), frequency of occurrence (O) and lack of detection (D) individually. To our knowledge, this is the first PM made for the TSEI. The developed PM can be useful for those centers that intend to implement the TSEI technique. Conclusion: The PM of TSEI technique has been established, as the first stage of full risk analysis, performed in a reference center in this treatment.

  5. Risk prediction for chronic kidney disease progression using heterogeneous electronic health record data and time series analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perotte, Adler; Ranganath, Rajesh; Hirsch, Jamie S; Blei, David; Elhadad, Noémie

    2015-07-01

    As adoption of electronic health records continues to increase, there is an opportunity to incorporate clinical documentation as well as laboratory values and demographics into risk prediction modeling. The authors develop a risk prediction model for chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression from stage III to stage IV that includes longitudinal data and features drawn from clinical documentation. The study cohort consisted of 2908 primary-care clinic patients who had at least three visits prior to January 1, 2013 and developed CKD stage III during their documented history. Development and validation cohorts were randomly selected from this cohort and the study datasets included longitudinal inpatient and outpatient data from these populations. Time series analysis (Kalman filter) and survival analysis (Cox proportional hazards) were combined to produce a range of risk models. These models were evaluated using concordance, a discriminatory statistic. A risk model incorporating longitudinal data on clinical documentation and laboratory test results (concordance 0.849) predicts progression from state III CKD to stage IV CKD more accurately when compared to a similar model without laboratory test results (concordance 0.733, P<.001), a model that only considers the most recent laboratory test results (concordance 0.819, P < .031) and a model based on estimated glomerular filtration rate (concordance 0.779, P < .001). A risk prediction model that takes longitudinal laboratory test results and clinical documentation into consideration can predict CKD progression from stage III to stage IV more accurately than three models that do not take all of these variables into consideration. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association.

  6. Are Metals Emitted from Electronic Cigarettes a Reason for Health Concern? A Risk-Assessment Analysis of Currently Available Literature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Konstantinos E. Farsalinos

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Background: Studies have found that metals are emitted to the electronic cigarette (EC aerosol. However, the potential health impact of exposure to such metals has not been adequately defined. The purpose of this study was to perform a risk assessment analysis, evaluating the exposure of electronic cigarette (EC users to metal emissions based on findings from the published literature. Methods: Two studies were found in the literature, measuring metals emitted to the aerosol from 13 EC products. We estimated that users take on average 600 EC puffs per day, but we evaluated the daily exposure from 1200 puffs. Estimates of exposure were compared with the chronic Permissible Daily Exposure (PDE from inhalational medications defined by the U.S. Pharmacopeia (cadmium, chromium, copper, lead and nickel, the Minimal Risk Level (MRL defined by the Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry (manganese and the Recommended Exposure Limit (REL defined by the National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health (aluminum, barium, iron, tin, titanium, zinc and zirconium. Results: The average daily exposure from 13 EC products was 2.6 to 387 times lower than the safety cut-off point of PDEs, 325 times lower than the safety limit of MRL and 665 to 77,514 times lower than the safety cut-off point of RELs. Only one of the 13 products was found to result in exposure 10% higher than PDE for one metal (cadmium at the extreme daily use of 1200 puffs. Significant differences in emissions between products were observed. Conclusions: Based on currently available data, overall exposure to metals from EC use is not expected to be of significant health concern for smokers switching to EC use, but is an unnecessary source of exposure for never-smokers. Metal analysis should be expanded to more products and exposure can be further reduced through improvements in product quality and appropriate choice of materials.

  7. Risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Correa Lizarazu, X.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation Colombia risk evaluation experiences, sanitarian regulations evolution, chemical dangers food, biological dangers food, codex alimentarius, trade, industrial effects, dangers identification, data collection and risk profile

  8. Information security risk analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Peltier, Thomas R

    2001-01-01

    Effective Risk AnalysisQualitative Risk AnalysisValue AnalysisOther Qualitative MethodsFacilitated Risk Analysis Process (FRAP)Other Uses of Qualitative Risk AnalysisCase StudyAppendix A: QuestionnaireAppendix B: Facilitated Risk Analysis Process FormsAppendix C: Business Impact Analysis FormsAppendix D: Sample of ReportAppendix E: Threat DefinitionsAppendix F: Other Risk Analysis OpinionsIndex

  9. Power electronics reliability analysis.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Mark A.; Atcitty, Stanley

    2009-12-01

    This report provides the DOE and industry with a general process for analyzing power electronics reliability. The analysis can help with understanding the main causes of failures, downtime, and cost and how to reduce them. One approach is to collect field maintenance data and use it directly to calculate reliability metrics related to each cause. Another approach is to model the functional structure of the equipment using a fault tree to derive system reliability from component reliability. Analysis of a fictitious device demonstrates the latter process. Optimization can use the resulting baseline model to decide how to improve reliability and/or lower costs. It is recommended that both electric utilities and equipment manufacturers make provisions to collect and share data in order to lay the groundwork for improving reliability into the future. Reliability analysis helps guide reliability improvements in hardware and software technology including condition monitoring and prognostics and health management.

  10. Foundations of Risk Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Aven, Terje

    2012-01-01

    Foundations of Risk Analysis presents the issues core to risk analysis - understanding what risk means, expressing risk, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real problems. The author provides the readers with the knowledge and basic thinking they require to successfully manage risk and uncertainty to support decision making. This updated edition reflects recent developments on risk and uncertainty concepts, representations and treatment. New material in Foundations of Risk Analysis includes:An up to date presentation of how to understand, define and

  11. Observations on risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, W.A. Jr.

    1979-11-01

    This paper briefly describes WASH 1400 and the Lewis report. It attempts to define basic concepts such as risk and risk analysis, common mode failure, and rare event. Several probabilistic models which go beyond the WASH 1400 methodology are introduced; the common characteristic of these models is that they recognize explicitly that risk analysis is time dependent whereas WASH 1400 takes a per demand failure rate approach which obscures the important fact that accidents are time related. Further, the presentation of a realistic risk analysis should recognize that there are various risks which compete with one another for the lives of the individuals at risk. A way of doing this is suggested

  12. Failure mode and effect analysis oriented to risk-reduction interventions in intraoperative electron radiation therapy: The specific impact of patient transportation, automation, and treatment planning availability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    López-Tarjuelo, Juan; Bouché-Babiloni, Ana; Santos-Serra, Agustín; Morillo-Macías, Virginia; Calvo, Felipe A.; Kubyshin, Yuri

    2014-01-01

    Background and purpose: Industrial companies use failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) to improve quality. Our objective was to describe an FMEA and subsequent interventions for an automated intraoperative electron radiotherapy (IOERT) procedure with computed tomography simulation, pre-planning, and a fixed conventional linear accelerator. Material and methods: A process map, an FMEA, and a fault tree analysis are reported. The equipment considered was the radiance treatment planning system (TPS), the Elekta Precise linac, and TN-502RDM-H metal–oxide-semiconductor-field-effect transistor in vivo dosimeters. Computerized order-entry and treatment-automation were also analyzed. Results: Fifty-seven potential modes and effects were identified and classified into ‘treatment cancellation’ and ‘delivering an unintended dose’. They were graded from ‘inconvenience’ or ‘suboptimal treatment’ to ‘total cancellation’ or ‘potentially wrong’ or ‘very wrong administered dose’, although these latter effects were never experienced. Risk priority numbers (RPNs) ranged from 3 to 324 and totaled 4804. After interventions such as double checking, interlocking, automation, and structural changes the final total RPN was reduced to 1320. Conclusions: FMEA is crucial for prioritizing risk-reduction interventions. In a semi-surgical procedure like IOERT double checking has the potential to reduce risk and improve quality. Interlocks and automation should also be implemented to increase the safety of the procedure

  13. Failure mode and effect analysis oriented to risk-reduction interventions in intraoperative electron radiation therapy: the specific impact of patient transportation, automation, and treatment planning availability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    López-Tarjuelo, Juan; Bouché-Babiloni, Ana; Santos-Serra, Agustín; Morillo-Macías, Virginia; Calvo, Felipe A; Kubyshin, Yuri; Ferrer-Albiach, Carlos

    2014-11-01

    Industrial companies use failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) to improve quality. Our objective was to describe an FMEA and subsequent interventions for an automated intraoperative electron radiotherapy (IOERT) procedure with computed tomography simulation, pre-planning, and a fixed conventional linear accelerator. A process map, an FMEA, and a fault tree analysis are reported. The equipment considered was the radiance treatment planning system (TPS), the Elekta Precise linac, and TN-502RDM-H metal-oxide-semiconductor-field-effect transistor in vivo dosimeters. Computerized order-entry and treatment-automation were also analyzed. Fifty-seven potential modes and effects were identified and classified into 'treatment cancellation' and 'delivering an unintended dose'. They were graded from 'inconvenience' or 'suboptimal treatment' to 'total cancellation' or 'potentially wrong' or 'very wrong administered dose', although these latter effects were never experienced. Risk priority numbers (RPNs) ranged from 3 to 324 and totaled 4804. After interventions such as double checking, interlocking, automation, and structural changes the final total RPN was reduced to 1320. FMEA is crucial for prioritizing risk-reduction interventions. In a semi-surgical procedure like IOERT double checking has the potential to reduce risk and improve quality. Interlocks and automation should also be implemented to increase the safety of the procedure. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Electronic Circuit Analysis Language (ECAL)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chenghang, C.

    1983-03-01

    The computer aided design technique is an important development in computer applications and it is an important component of computer science. The special language for electronic circuit analysis is the foundation of computer aided design or computer aided circuit analysis (abbreviated as CACD and CACA) of simulated circuits. Electronic circuit analysis language (ECAL) is a comparatively simple and easy to use circuit analysis special language which uses the FORTRAN language to carry out the explanatory executions. It is capable of conducting dc analysis, ac analysis, and transient analysis of a circuit. Futhermore, the results of the dc analysis can be used directly as the initial conditions for the ac and transient analyses.

  15. Is risk analysis scientific?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansson, Sven Ove; Aven, Terje

    2014-07-01

    This article discusses to what extent risk analysis is scientific in view of a set of commonly used definitions and criteria. We consider scientific knowledge to be characterized by its subject matter, its success in developing the best available knowledge in its fields of study, and the epistemic norms and values that guide scientific investigations. We proceed to assess the field of risk analysis according to these criteria. For this purpose, we use a model for risk analysis in which science is used as a base for decision making on risks, which covers the five elements evidence, knowledge base, broad risk evaluation, managerial review and judgment, and the decision; and that relates these elements to the domains experts and decisionmakers, and to the domains fact-based or value-based. We conclude that risk analysis is a scientific field of study, when understood as consisting primarily of (i) knowledge about risk-related phenomena, processes, events, etc., and (ii) concepts, theories, frameworks, approaches, principles, methods and models to understand, assess, characterize, communicate, and manage risk, in general and for specific applications (the instrumental part). © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  16. Legal Risk Associated with Electronic Funds Transfer

    OpenAIRE

    Abdulah, Samahir

    2014-01-01

    The past thirty years have seen rapid advances in the technological component of banking services and as a consequence new legal issues have come to the fore, especially with regard to Electronic Fund Transfers (EFTs) which are now used to transfer money around the world, and have made fund transactions between payers and payees easier, faster and more secure. The method involves risks for both banks and customers, due to the possibility of unauthorized payments risks, credit and insolvency p...

  17. Electronics via waveform analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Craig, Edwin C

    1993-01-01

    The author believes that a good basic understanding of electronics can be achieved by detailed visual analyses of the actual voltage waveforms present in selected circuits. The voltage waveforms included in this text were photographed using a 35-rrun camera in an attempt to make the book more attractive. This book is intended for the use of students with a variety of backgrounds. For this reason considerable material has been placed in the Appendix for those students who find it useful. The Appendix includes many basic electricity and electronic concepts as well as mathematical derivations that are not vital to the understanding of the circuit being discussed in the text at that time. Also some derivations might be so long that, if included in the text, it could affect the concentration of the student on the circuit being studied. The author has tried to make the book comprehensive enough so that a student could use it as a self-study course, providing one has access to adequate laboratory equipment.

  18. Electronic Publishing in Science: Changes and Risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinne, Otto

    1999-01-01

    Discussion of the Internet and the guidance of the World Wide Web Consortium focuses on scientific communication and electronic publishing. Considers the speed of communicating and disseminating information; quality issues; cost; library subscriptions; publishers; and risks and concerns, including the role of editors and reviewers or referees.…

  19. Comparative risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niehaus, F.

    1988-01-01

    In this paper, the risks of various energy systems are discussed considering severe accidents analysis, particularly the probabilistic safety analysis, and probabilistic safety criteria, and the applications of these criteria and analysis. The comparative risk analysis has demonstrated that the largest source of risk in every society is from daily small accidents. Nevertheless, we have to be more concerned about severe accidents. The comparative risk analysis of five different energy systems (coal, oil, gas, LWR and STEC (Solar)) for the public has shown that the main sources of risks are coal and oil. The latest comparative risk study of various energy has been conducted in the USA and has revealed that the number of victims from coal is 42 as many than victims from nuclear. A study for severe accidents from hydro-dams in United States has estimated the probability of dam failures at 1 in 10,000 years and the number of victims between 11,000 and 260,000. The average occupational risk from coal is one fatal accident in 1,000 workers/year. The probabilistic safety analysis is a method that can be used to assess nuclear energy risks, and to analyze the severe accidents, and to model all possible accident sequences and consequences. The 'Fault tree' analysis is used to know the probability of failure of the different systems at each point of accident sequences and to calculate the probability of risks. After calculating the probability of failure, the criteria for judging the numerical results have to be developed, that is the quantitative and qualitative goals. To achieve these goals, several systems have been devised by various countries members of AIEA. The probabilistic safety ana-lysis method has been developed by establishing a computer program permit-ting to know different categories of safety related information. 19 tabs. (author)

  20. Information Security Risk Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Peltier, Thomas R

    2010-01-01

    Offers readers with the knowledge and the skill-set needed to achieve a highly effective risk analysis assessment. This title demonstrates how to identify threats and then determine if those threats pose a real risk. It is suitable for industry and academia professionals.

  1. Phenotype analysis of early risk factors from electronic medical records improves image-derived diagnostic classifiers for optic nerve pathology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaganti, Shikha; Nabar, Kunal P.; Nelson, Katrina M.; Mawn, Louise A.; Landman, Bennett A.

    2017-03-01

    We examine imaging and electronic medical records (EMR) of 588 subjects over five major disease groups that affect optic nerve function. An objective evaluation of the role of imaging and EMR data in diagnosis of these conditions would improve understanding of these diseases and help in early intervention. We developed an automated image processing pipeline that identifies the orbital structures within the human eyes from computed tomography (CT) scans, calculates structural size, and performs volume measurements. We customized the EMR-based phenome-wide association study (PheWAS) to derive diagnostic EMR phenotypes that occur at least two years prior to the onset of the conditions of interest from a separate cohort of 28,411 ophthalmology patients. We used random forest classifiers to evaluate the predictive power of image-derived markers, EMR phenotypes, and clinical visual assessments in identifying disease cohorts from a control group of 763 patients without optic nerve disease. Image-derived markers showed more predictive power than clinical visual assessments or EMR phenotypes. However, the addition of EMR phenotypes to the imaging markers improves the classification accuracy against controls: the AUC improved from 0.67 to 0.88 for glaucoma, 0.73 to 0.78 for intrinsic optic nerve disease, 0.72 to 0.76 for optic nerve edema, 0.72 to 0.77 for orbital inflammation, and 0.81 to 0.85 for thyroid eye disease. This study illustrates the importance of diagnostic context for interpretation of image-derived markers and the proposed PheWAS technique provides a flexible approach for learning salient features of patient history and incorporating these data into traditional machine learning analyses.

  2. Component of the risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martinez, I.; Campon, G.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation reviews issues like analysis of risk (Codex), management risk, preliminary activities manager, relationship between government and industries, microbiological danger and communication of risk

  3. Unsharpness-risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Preyssl, C.

    1986-01-01

    Safety analysis provides the only tool for evaluation and quantification of rare or hypothetical events leading to system failure. So far probability theory has been used for the fault- and event-tree methodology. The phenomenon of uncertainties constitutes an important aspect in risk analysis. Uncertainties can be classified as originating from 'randomness' or 'fuzziness'. Probability theory addresses randomness only. The use of 'fuzzy set theory' makes it possible to include both types of uncertainty in the mathematical model of risk analysis. Thus the 'fuzzy fault tree' is expressed in 'possibilistic' terms implying a range of simplifications and improvements. 'Human failure' and 'conditionality' can be treated correctly. Only minimum-maximum relations are used to combine the possibility distributions of events. Various event-classifications facilitate the interpretation of the results. The method is demonstrated by application to a TRIGA-research reactor. Uncertainty as an implicit part of 'fuzzy risk' can be quantified explicitly using an 'uncertainty measure'. Based on this the 'degree of relative compliance' with a quantizative safety goal can be defined for a particular risk. The introduction of 'weighting functionals' guarantees the consideration of the importances attached to different parts of the risk exceeding or complying with the standard. The comparison of two reference systems is demonstrated in a case study. It is concluded that any application of the 'fuzzy risk analysis' has to be free of any hypostatization when reducing subjective to objective information. (Author)

  4. Adversarial risk analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Banks, David L; Rios Insua, David

    2015-01-01

    Flexible Models to Analyze Opponent Behavior A relatively new area of research, adversarial risk analysis (ARA) informs decision making when there are intelligent opponents and uncertain outcomes. Adversarial Risk Analysis develops methods for allocating defensive or offensive resources against intelligent adversaries. Many examples throughout illustrate the application of the ARA approach to a variety of games and strategic situations. The book shows decision makers how to build Bayesian models for the strategic calculation of their opponents, enabling decision makers to maximize their expected utility or minimize their expected loss. This new approach to risk analysis asserts that analysts should use Bayesian thinking to describe their beliefs about an opponent's goals, resources, optimism, and type of strategic calculation, such as minimax and level-k thinking. Within that framework, analysts then solve the problem from the perspective of the opponent while placing subjective probability distributions on a...

  5. Risk assessment of integrated electronic health records.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bjornsson, Bjarni Thor; Sigurdardottir, Gudlaug; Stefansson, Stefan Orri

    2010-01-01

    The paper describes the security concerns related to Electronic Health Records (EHR) both in registration of data and integration of systems. A description of the current state of EHR systems in Iceland is provided, along with the Ministry of Health's future vision and plans. New legislation provides the opportunity for increased integration of EHRs and further collaboration between institutions. Integration of systems, along with greater availability and access to EHR data, requires increased security awareness since additional risks are introduced. The paper describes the core principles of information security as it applies to EHR systems and data. The concepts of confidentiality, integrity, availability, accountability and traceability are introduced and described. The paper discusses the legal requirements and importance of performing risk assessment for EHR data. Risk assessment methodology according to the ISO/IEC 27001 information security standard is described with examples on how it is applied to EHR systems.

  6. RISK MANAGEMENT IN THE ELECTRONIC BUSINESS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georgeta Soava

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Risk should not be understood as a destructive phenomenon, but bear in mind that managers who know how to use it can lead to real opportunities. Manager must first recognize the existence of risk, namely to identify and then use specific methods to avoid or reduce the risk. The purpose of this paper is to enter the world, at all simple, of risk management, relatively easy concept to understand but not so easy to put into practice. Of course, the approach relates primarily at the risks inherent of the business in digital environments, but they not represent only a particular case of the risks they are exposed, in general, the companies. In the paper we put in evidence the significance in general business, risks in e-business, then we added a description of the types of security risks, an exemplification of these and a series of test scenarios, and finally to make a analysis of operational solutions of risk management

  7. Environmental risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lima-e-Silva, Pedro Paulo de

    1996-01-01

    The conventional Risk Analysis (RA) relates usually a certain undesired event frequency with its consequences. Such technique is used nowadays in Brazil to analyze accidents and their consequences strictly under the human approach, valuing loss of human equipment, human structures and human lives, without considering the damage caused to natural resources that keep life possible on Earth. This paradigm was developed primarily because of the Homo sapiens' lack of perception upon the natural web needed to sustain his own life. In reality, the Brazilian professionals responsible today for licensing, auditing and inspecting environmental aspects of human activities face huge difficulties in making technical specifications and procedures leading to acceptable levels of impact, furthermore considering the intrinsic difficulties to define those levels. Therefore, in Brazil the RA technique is a weak tool for licensing for many reasons, and of them are its short scope (only accident considerations) and wrong a paradigm (only human direct damages). A paper from the author about the former was already proposed to the 7th International Conference on Environmetrics, past July'96, USP-SP. This one discusses the extension of the risk analysis concept to take into account environmental consequences, transforming the conventional analysis into a broader methodology named here as Environmental Risk Analysis. (author)

  8. Risk analysis and reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uppuluri, V.R.R.

    1979-01-01

    Mathematical foundations of risk analysis are addressed. The importance of having the same probability space in order to compare different experiments is pointed out. Then the following topics are discussed: consequences as random variables with infinite expectations; the phenomenon of rare events; series-parallel systems and different kinds of randomness that could be imposed on such systems; and the problem of consensus of estimates of expert opinion

  9. GET electronics samples data analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Giovinazzo, J.; Goigoux, T.; Anvar, S.; Baron, P.; Blank, B.; Delagnes, E.; Grinyer, G.F.; Pancin, J.; Pedroza, J.L.; Pibernat, J.; Pollacco, E.; Rebii, A.

    2016-01-01

    The General Electronics for TPCs (GET) has been developed to equip a generation of time projection chamber detectors for nuclear physics, and may also be used for a wider range of detector types. The goal of this paper is to propose first analysis procedures to be applied on raw data samples from the GET system, in order to correct for systematic effects observed on test measurements. We also present a method to estimate the response function of the GET system channels. The response function is required in analysis where the input signal needs to be reconstructed, in terms of time distribution, from the registered output samples.

  10. Electronic cigarettes: incorporating human factors engineering into risk assessments

    OpenAIRE

    Yang, Ling; Rudy, Susan F; Cheng, James M; Durmowicz, Elizabeth L

    2014-01-01

    Objective A systematic review was conducted to evaluate the impact of human factors (HF) on the risks associated with electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes) and to identify research gaps. HF is the evaluation of human interactions with products and includes the analysis of user, environment and product complexity. Consideration of HF may mitigate known and potential hazards from the use and misuse of a consumer product, including e-cigarettes. Methods Five databases were searched through Januar...

  11. Mare Risk Analysis monitor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fuente Prieto, I.; Alonso, P.; Carretero Fernandino, J. A.

    2000-01-01

    The Nuclear Safety Council's requirement that Spanish power plants comply with the requirements of the Maintenance Rule associated with plant risk assessment during power operation, arising from the partial unavailability of systems due to the maintenance activities, has led to need for additional tools to facilitate compliance with said requirements. While the impact on risk produced by individual equipment unavailabilities can easily be evaluated, either qualitatively or quantitatively, the process becomes more complicated when un programmed unavailabilities simultaneously occur in various systems, making it necessary to evaluate their functional impact. It is especially complex in the case of support systems that can affect the functionality of multiple systems. In view of the above, a computer application has been developed that is capable of providing the operator with quick answers based on the specific plant model in order to allow fast risk assessment using the information compiled as part of the Probabilistic Safety Analysis. The paper describes the most important characteristics of this application and the basic design requirements of the MARE Risk Monitor. (Author)

  12. Methods for Risk Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alverbro, Karin

    2010-01-01

    Many decision-making situations today affect humans and the environment. In practice, many such decisions are made without an overall view and prioritise one or other of the two areas. Now and then these two areas of regulation come into conflict, e.g. the best alternative as regards environmental considerations is not always the best from a human safety perspective and vice versa. This report was prepared within a major project with the aim of developing a framework in which both the environmental aspects and the human safety aspects are integrated, and decisions can be made taking both fields into consideration. The safety risks have to be analysed in order to be successfully avoided and one way of doing this is to use different kinds of risk analysis methods. There is an abundance of existing methods to choose from and new methods are constantly being developed. This report describes some of the risk analysis methods currently available for analysing safety and examines the relationships between them. The focus here is mainly on human safety aspects

  13. Comparative analysis of the terms "electronic commerce" and "electronic business"

    OpenAIRE

    Kavaliauskienė, Virginija; Šarapovas, Tadas

    2002-01-01

    Establishing the terms that clearly and consistently describe growing and dynamic networked economy is a critical first step toward further analysis and evaluation of electronic commerce and electronic business processes. Electronic commerce is making an impact on the ways that purchasing activities are being conducted. Much of the early literature on this subject was very speculative. However, the growth of e-commerce has enabled more observations to be made of the use of electronic business...

  14. Probabilistic risk analysis and terrorism risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ezell, Barry Charles; Bennett, Steven P; von Winterfeldt, Detlof; Sokolowski, John; Collins, Andrew J

    2010-04-01

    Since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and the subsequent establishment of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), considerable efforts have been made to estimate the risks of terrorism and the cost effectiveness of security policies to reduce these risks. DHS, industry, and the academic risk analysis communities have all invested heavily in the development of tools and approaches that can assist decisionmakers in effectively allocating limited resources across the vast array of potential investments that could mitigate risks from terrorism and other threats to the homeland. Decisionmakers demand models, analyses, and decision support that are useful for this task and based on the state of the art. Since terrorism risk analysis is new, no single method is likely to meet this challenge. In this article we explore a number of existing and potential approaches for terrorism risk analysis, focusing particularly on recent discussions regarding the applicability of probabilistic and decision analytic approaches to bioterrorism risks and the Bioterrorism Risk Assessment methodology used by the DHS and criticized by the National Academies and others.

  15. International Conference on Risk Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Oliveira, Teresa; Rigas, Alexandros; Gulati, Sneh

    2015-01-01

    This book covers the latest results in the field of risk analysis. Presented topics include probabilistic models in cancer research, models and methods in longevity, epidemiology of cancer risk, engineering reliability and economical risk problems. The contributions of this volume originate from the 5th International Conference on Risk Analysis (ICRA 5). The conference brought together researchers and practitioners working in the field of risk analysis in order to present new theoretical and computational methods with applications in biology, environmental sciences, public health, economics and finance.

  16. Electronic fraud (cyber fraud risk in the banking industry, Zimbabwe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shewangu Dzomira

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper explores forms of electronic fraud which are being perpetrated in the banking industry and the challenges being faced in an attempt to combat the risk. The paper is based on a descriptive study which studied the cyber fraud phenomenon using content analysis. To obtain the data questionnaires and interviews were administered to the selected informants from 22 banks. Convenience and judgemental sampling techniques were used. It was found out that most of the cited types of electronic fraud are perpetrated across the banking industry. Challenges like lack of resources (detection tools and technologies, inadequate cyber-crime laws and lack of knowledge through education and awareness were noted. It is recommended that the issue of cyber security should be addressed involving all the stakeholders so that technological systems are safeguarded from cyber-attacks

  17. Fire risk analysis, fire simulation, fire spreading and impact of smoke and heat on instrumentation electronics - State-of-the-Art Report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roewekamp, M.; Bertrand, R.; Bonneval, F.; Hamblen, D.; Siu, N.; Aulamo, H.; Martila, J.; Sandberg, J.; Virolainen, R.

    2000-01-01

    Numerous fire PSAs (probabilistic safety assessments) have shown that fire can be a major contributor to nuclear power plant risk. However, there are considerable uncertainties in the results of these assessments, due to significant gaps in current abilities to perform realistic assessments. These gaps involve multiple aspects of fire PSA, including the estimation of the probability of important fire scenarios, the modeling of fire growth and suppression, the prediction of fire-induced damage to equipment (including the effects of smoke), and the treatment of plant and operator responses to the fire. In response to recommendations of /VIR 93/, CSNI/PWG5 established a Task Group to review the present status and maturity of current methods used in fire risk assessments for operating nuclear power plants. The Task Group issued a questionnaire in May 1997 to all nuclear power generating OECD countries. The prime focus of the questionnaire (see Appendix A) was on a number of important issues in fire PSA: Fire PSA methodology and applications; Fire simulation codes; Ignition and damageability data; Modeling of fire spread on cables or other equipment; Modeling of smoke production and spread; Impact of smoke and heat on instrumentation, electronics, or other electrical equipment; Impact of actual cable fires on safety systems. The questionnaire requested specific information on these topics (e.g., computer codes used in fire PSAs, the physical parameters used to model ignition). Responses to the questionnaire were provided by Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Japan, Spain, Switzerland, United Kingdom, and the USA. This report summarizes the questionnaire responses and thereby: a) provides a perspective on the current fire PSA state of the art (SOAR) with respect to the issues listed above, and b) provides numerous references for more detailed information regarding these issues. The main responsibility for writing different chapters of this report was divided between some

  18. MATHEMATICAL RISK ANALYSIS: VIA NICHOLAS RISK MODEL AND BAYESIAN ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anass BAYAGA

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this second part of a two-phased study was to explorethe predictive power of quantitative risk analysis (QRA method andprocess within Higher Education Institution (HEI. The method and process investigated the use impact analysis via Nicholas risk model and Bayesian analysis, with a sample of hundred (100 risk analysts in a historically black South African University in the greater Eastern Cape Province.The first findings supported and confirmed previous literature (KingIII report, 2009: Nicholas and Steyn, 2008: Stoney, 2007: COSA, 2004 that there was a direct relationship between risk factor, its likelihood and impact, certiris paribus. The second finding in relation to either controlling the likelihood or the impact of occurrence of risk (Nicholas risk model was that to have a brighter risk reward, it was important to control the likelihood ofoccurrence of risks as compared with its impact so to have a direct effect on entire University. On the Bayesian analysis, thus third finding, the impact of risk should be predicted along three aspects. These aspects included the human impact (decisions made, the property impact (students and infrastructural based and the business impact. Lastly, the study revealed that although in most business cases, where as business cycles considerably vary dependingon the industry and or the institution, this study revealed that, most impacts in HEI (University was within the period of one academic.The recommendation was that application of quantitative risk analysisshould be related to current legislative framework that affects HEI.

  19. Country risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    David, A.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reports that the oil industry has been an internationally based industry that has been heavily dependent on outside financing sources. Historically, financing came from investment houses that, in most cases, participated in the projects as equity investors. However, investment companies can no longer satisfy the capital requirements of the current high level of exploration and development activities. The current trend is to involve commercial banks on a purely lending basis. Commercial banks, by their nature, are risk averse. In the case of oil and gas exploration and production they are asked to take not only technical risk and price risk but geopolitical risk as well. Methods have been developed by commercial banks to reduce technical and price risks to point which enables them to be comfortable with a loan. However, geopolitical risks are more difficult to assess. The risk associated with many countries are the nationalization of the investment, new tax restrictions, restriction of currency movements, and/or revisions to the production sharing agreements

  20. Risk analysis of Odelouca cofferdam

    OpenAIRE

    Pimenta, L.; Caldeira, L.; Maranha das Neves, E.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we present the risk analysis of Odelouca Cofferdam, using an event tree analysis. The initializing events, failure modes and analysed limit states are discussed based on an influence diagram. The constructed event trees and their interpretation are presented. The obtained risk values are represented in an FN plot superimposed to the acceptability and tolerability risk limits proposed for Portuguese dams. Initially, particular emphasis is placed on the main characteristic...

  1. GENDER ANALYSIS OF ELECTRONIC INFORMATION

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    use of internet Search engines such as google, yahoo and other free internet resources was found ... empirical studies are undertaken to examine the influence of gender ... H3: Perceived ease of use is positively related to the use of electronic.

  2. Campylobacter Risk Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nauta, Maarten

    In several countries quantitative microbiological risk assessments (QMRAs) have been performed for Campylobacter in chicken meat. The models constructed for this purpose provide a good example of the development of QMRA in general and illustrate the diversity of available methods. Despite...... the differences between the models, the most prominent conclusions of the QMRAs are similar. These conclusions for example relate to the large risk of highly contaminated meat products and the insignificance of contamination from Campylobacter positive flocks to negative flocks during slaughter and processing...

  3. Risk analysis: opening the process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, Ph.; Mays, C.

    1998-01-01

    This conference on risk analysis took place in Paris, 11-14 october 1999. Over 200 paper where presented in the seven following sessions: perception; environment and health; persuasive risks; objects and products; personal and collective involvement; assessment and valuation; management. A rational approach to risk analysis has been developed in the three last decades. Techniques for risk assessment have been thoroughly enhanced, risk management approaches have been developed, decision making processes have been clarified, the social dimensions of risk perception and management have been investigated. Nevertheless this construction is being challenged by recent events which reveal how deficits in stakeholder involvement, openness and democratic procedures can undermine risk management actions. Indeed, the global process most components of risk analysis may be radically called into question. Food safety has lately been a prominent issue, but now debates appear, or old debates are revisited in the domains of public health, consumer products safety, waste management, environmental risks, nuclear installations, automobile safety and pollution. To meet the growing pressures for efficiency, openness, accountability, and multi-partner communication in risk analysis, institutional changes are underway in many European countries. However, the need for stakeholders to develop better insight into the process may lead to an evolution of all the components of risks analysis, even in its most (technical' steps. For stakeholders of different professional background, political projects, and responsibilities, risk identification procedures must be rendered understandable, quantitative risk assessment must be intelligible and accommodated in action proposals, ranging from countermeasures to educational programs to insurance mechanisms. Management formats must be open to local and political input and other types of operational feedback. (authors)

  4. Advances in probabilistic risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hardung von Hardung, H.

    1982-01-01

    Probabilistic risk analysis can now look back upon almost a quarter century of intensive development. The early studies, whose methods and results are still referred to occasionally, however, only permitted rough estimates to be made of the probabilities of recognizable accident scenarios, failing to provide a method which could have served as a reference base in calculating the overall risk associated with nuclear power plants. The first truly solid attempt was the Rasmussen Study and, partly based on it, the German Risk Study. In those studies, probabilistic risk analysis has been given a much more precise basis. However, new methodologies have been developed in the meantime, which allow much more informative risk studies to be carried out. They have been found to be valuable tools for management decisions with respect to backfitting, reinforcement and risk limitation. Today they are mainly applied by specialized private consultants and have already found widespread application especially in the USA. (orig.) [de

  5. Perceived risk and trust associated with purchasing at Electronic Marketplaces

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meents, Selmar; Tan, Yao-Hua; Verhagen, Tibert

    2006-01-01

    Understanding consumer behaviour is of vital importance to consumer oriented e-business models today. In this paper we study the relationships between consumer perceptions of risk and trust and the attitude towards purchasing at a consumer-to-consumer electronic marketplace. Typical for electronic

  6. Introduction of the risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Campon, G.; Martinez, I.

    2013-01-01

    An introduction of risks analysis was given in the exposition which main issues were: food innocuousness, world, regional and national food context,change of paradigms, health definition, risk, codex, standardization, food chain role, trade agreement, codex alimentarius, food transmission diseases cost impact

  7. Hydroproject risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murdock, R.V.; Gulliver, J.S.

    1991-01-01

    Traditionally, economic feasibility studies performed for potential hydropower plant sites have included either no uncertainty or at best an ad hoc value associated with estimated benefits. However, formal methods for analyzing uncertainty do exist and have been outlined in the past. An application of these methods is demonstrated through conversion of a hydropower survey program, HYFEAS, to run on LOTUS 1-2-3, using the add-in software package RISK. In this paper the program principals are outlined and a case study of it's application to a hydropower site is presented

  8. Data analysis for electronic experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grote, H.

    1981-01-01

    In this lecture I schell attempt to cover the principal off-line software aspects in electronic experiments. Of course, this is too ambitious an undertaking for two reasons: Firstly the field is vast, and some important aspect will certainly have escaped my attention. Secondly, the choice of methods, features, algorithms, and packages presented will be biased through my personal opinion and experience, although to some extent it is influenced as well by the opinion and experience of my colleagues, who, like myself, are working in this field at CERN. Therefore, beware. Whenever I shall claim something to be evident, a matter of experience -- a fact --it ain't necessarily so. On the other hand, it will not be entirely wrong, since our experience is based on something like 30 experiments in high-energy physics using electronic for other people, and although these people are of course misled, one has to admit their existence. (orig.)

  9. Critical analysis of industrial electron accelerators

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Korenev, S. E-mail: sergey_korenev@steris.com

    2004-10-01

    The critical analysis of electron linacs for industrial applications (degradation of PTFE, curing of composites, modification of materials, sterilization and others) is considered in this report. Main physical requirements for industrial electron accelerators consist in the variations of beam parameters, such as kinetic energy and beam power. Questions for regulation of these beam parameters are considered. The level of absorbed dose in the irradiated product and throughput determines the main parameters of electron accelerator. The type of ideal electron linac for industrial applications is discussed.

  10. Critical analysis of industrial electron accelerators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korenev, S.

    2004-09-01

    The critical analysis of electron linacs for industrial applications (degradation of PTFE, curing of composites, modification of materials, sterlization and others) is considered in this report. Main physical requirements for industrial electron accelerators consist in the variations of beam parameters, such as kinetic energy and beam power. Questions for regulation of these beam parameters are considered. The level of absorbed dose in the irradiated product and throughput determines the main parameters of electron accelerator. The type of ideal electron linac for industrial applications is discussed.

  11. Critical analysis of industrial electron accelerators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Korenev, S.

    2004-01-01

    The critical analysis of electron linacs for industrial applications (degradation of PTFE, curing of composites, modification of materials, sterilization and others) is considered in this report. Main physical requirements for industrial electron accelerators consist in the variations of beam parameters, such as kinetic energy and beam power. Questions for regulation of these beam parameters are considered. The level of absorbed dose in the irradiated product and throughput determines the main parameters of electron accelerator. The type of ideal electron linac for industrial applications is discussed

  12. Benefits and Risks of Electronic Medical Record (EMR): An Interpretive Analysis of Healthcare Consumers' Perceptions of an Evolving Health Information Systems Technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Chester D.

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to explore healthcare consumers' perceptions of their Electronic Medical Records (EMRs). Although there have been numerous studies regarding EMRs, there have been minimal, if any, research that explores healthcare consumers' awareness of this technology and the social implications that result. As consumers' health…

  13. STOCHASTIC METHODS IN RISK ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimíra OSADSKÁ

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we review basic stochastic methods which can be used to extend state-of-the-art deterministic analytical methods for risk analysis. We can conclude that the standard deterministic analytical methods highly depend on the practical experience and knowledge of the evaluator and therefore, the stochastic methods should be introduced. The new risk analysis methods should consider the uncertainties in input values. We present how large is the impact on the results of the analysis solving practical example of FMECA with uncertainties modelled using Monte Carlo sampling.

  14. ProRisk : risk analysis instrument : developed for William properties

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Doorn, W.H.W.; Egeberg, Ingrid; Hendrickx, Kristoff; Kahramaner, Y.; Masseur, B.; Waijers, Koen; Weglicka, K.A.

    2005-01-01

    This report presents a Risk Analysis Instrument developed for William Properties. Based on the analysis, it appears that the practice of Risk Analysis exists within the organization, yet rather implicit. The Risk Analysis Instrument comes with a package of four components: an activity diagram, a

  15. Common approach of risks analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noviello, L.; Naviglio, A.

    1996-01-01

    Although, following the resolutions of the High German Court, the protection level of the human beings is an objective which can change in time, it is obvious that it is an important point when there is a risk for the population. This is true more particularly for the industrial plants whose possible accidents could affect the population. The accidents risk analysis indicates that there is no conceptual difference between the risks of a nuclear power plant and those of the other industrial plants as chemical plants, the gas distribution system and the hydraulic dams. A legislation analysis induced by the Seveso Directive for the industrial risks give some important indications which should always be followed. This work analyses more particularly the legislative situation in different European countries and identifies some of the most important characteristics. Indeed, for most of the countries, the situation is different and it is a later difficulties source for nuclear power plants. In order to strengthen this reasoning, this paper presents some preliminary results of an analysis of a nuclear power plant following the approach of other industrial plants. In conclusion, it will be necessary to analyse again the risks assessment approach for nuclear power plants because the real protection level of human beings in a country is determined by the less regulated of the dangerous industrial plants existing at the surroundings. (O.M.)

  16. Risk Characterization uncertainties associated description, sensitivity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carrillo, M.; Tovar, M.; Alvarez, J.; Arraez, M.; Hordziejewicz, I.; Loreto, I.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation is about risks to the estimated levels of exposure, uncertainty and variability in the analysis, sensitivity analysis, risks from exposure to multiple substances, formulation of guidelines for carcinogenic and genotoxic compounds and risk subpopulations

  17. Perceived risk and trust associated with purchasing at electronic marketplaces

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verhagen, T.; Meents, S.; Tan, Y.H.

    2006-01-01

    Understanding consumer behaviour is of vital importance to consumer-oriented e-business models today. In this paper, we study the relationships between consumer perceptions of risk and trust and the attitude towards purchasing at a consumer-to-consumer electronic marketplace (EM). Typical for EM

  18. Environmental modeling and health risk analysis (ACTS/RISK)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Aral, M. M

    2010-01-01

    ... presents a review of the topics of exposure and health risk analysis. The Analytical Contaminant Transport Analysis System (ACTS) and Health RISK Analysis (RISK) software tools are an integral part of the book and provide computational platforms for all the models discussed herein. The most recent versions of these two softwa...

  19. Credit Risk Evaluation : Modeling - Analysis - Management

    OpenAIRE

    Wehrspohn, Uwe

    2002-01-01

    An analysis and further development of the building blocks of modern credit risk management: -Definitions of default -Estimation of default probabilities -Exposures -Recovery Rates -Pricing -Concepts of portfolio dependence -Time horizons for risk calculations -Quantification of portfolio risk -Estimation of risk measures -Portfolio analysis and portfolio improvement -Evaluation and comparison of credit risk models -Analytic portfolio loss distributions The thesis contributes to the evaluatio...

  20. Analysis of electron interactions in dielectric gases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olivet, Aurelio; Duque, Daniel; Vega, Lourdes F.

    2007-01-01

    We present and discuss results concerning electron interactions processes of dielectric gases and their relationship with the macroscopic behavior of these gases, in particular, with their dielectric strength. Such analysis is based on calculating energies of reactions for molecular ionization, dissociative ionization, parent negative ion formation, and dissociative electron attachment processes. We hypothesize that the estimation of the required energy for a reduced number of processes that take place in electrically stressed gases could be related to the gas' capability to manage the electron flow during an electrical discharge. All calculations were done with semiempirical quantum chemistry methods, including an initial optimization of molecular geometry and heat of formation of the dielectric gases and all of species that appear during electron interaction reactions. The performance of semiempirical methods Austin model 1 and Parametric model 3 (PM3) was compared for several compounds, PM3 being superior in most cases. Calculations performed for a sample of nine dielectric gases show that electron attachment and detachment processes occur in different energy bands that do not overlap for any value of the dielectric strength. We have also analyzed the relationship between dielectric strength and two physical properties: electron affinity and ionization energy. Calculations performed for 43 dielectric gases show no clear correlation between them, although certain guidelines for the qualitative estimation of dielectric strength can still be assessed

  1. Electronic Health Record Implementation: A SWOT Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leila Shahmoradi

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Electronic Health Record (EHR is one of the most important achievements of information technology in healthcare domain, and if deployed effectively, it can yield predominant results. The aim of this study was a SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats analysis in electronic health record implementation. This is a descriptive, analytical study conducted with the participation of a 90-member work force from Hospitals affiliated to Tehran University of Medical Sciences (TUMS. The data were collected by using a self-structured questionnaire and analyzed by SPSS software. Based on the results, the highest priority in strength analysis was related to timely and quick access to information. However, lack of hardware and infrastructures was the most important weakness. Having the potential to share information between different sectors and access to a variety of health statistics was the significant opportunity of EHR. Finally, the most substantial threats were the lack of strategic planning in the field of electronic health records together with physicians’ and other clinical staff’s resistance in the use of electronic health records. To facilitate successful adoption of electronic health record, some organizational, technical and resource elements contribute; moreover, the consideration of these factors is essential for HER implementation.

  2. Electronic Health Record Implementation: A SWOT Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shahmoradi, Leila; Darrudi, Alireza; Arji, Goli; Farzaneh Nejad, Ahmadreza

    2017-10-01

    Electronic Health Record (EHR) is one of the most important achievements of information technology in healthcare domain, and if deployed effectively, it can yield predominant results. The aim of this study was a SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) analysis in electronic health record implementation. This is a descriptive, analytical study conducted with the participation of a 90-member work force from Hospitals affiliated to Tehran University of Medical Sciences (TUMS). The data were collected by using a self-structured questionnaire and analyzed by SPSS software. Based on the results, the highest priority in strength analysis was related to timely and quick access to information. However, lack of hardware and infrastructures was the most important weakness. Having the potential to share information between different sectors and access to a variety of health statistics was the significant opportunity of EHR. Finally, the most substantial threats were the lack of strategic planning in the field of electronic health records together with physicians' and other clinical staff's resistance in the use of electronic health records. To facilitate successful adoption of electronic health record, some organizational, technical and resource elements contribute; moreover, the consideration of these factors is essential for HER implementation.

  3. Risk Analysis in Road Tunnels – Most Important Risk Indicators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berchtold, Florian; Knaust, Christian; Thöns, Sebastian

    2016-01-01

    Methodologies on fire risk analysis in road tunnels consider numerous factors affecting risks (risk indicators) and express the results by risk measures. But only few comprehensive studies on effects of risk indicators on risk measures are available. For this reason, this study quantifies...... the effects and highlights the most important risk indicators with the aim to support further developments in risk analysis. Therefore, a system model of a road tunnel was developed to determine the risk measures. The system model can be divided into three parts: the fire part connected to the fire model Fire...... Dynamics Simulator (FDS); the evacuation part connected to the evacuation model FDS+Evac; and the frequency part connected to a model to calculate the frequency of fires. This study shows that the parts of the system model (and their most important risk indicators) affect the risk measures in the following...

  4. What is a risk. [Quantitative risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schoen, G [Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt, Braunschweig (Germany, F.R.)

    1979-02-01

    The following article is a revised version of a lecture given by the author during the VDE meeting 'Technical Expert Activities' in Brunswick. First of all, the concept of 'risk' is discussed which leads to a probability scale which then permits a definition of the 'justifiable risk' as the boundary between 'hazard' and 'safety'. The boundary is quantified indirectly from laws, regulations, instructions, etc. to the 'Technological rules' for special fields of application by minimum requirement data. These viewpoints described in detail are not only of substantial significance for the creation of safety regulations but also for their application and consequently for jurisdiction.

  5. THE ROLE OF TRUST AND PERCEIVED RISK IN ELECTRONIC COMMERCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    NICULA DANA LAURA

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Trust and risk are very important in consumers' electronic commerce purchasing decisions. How do trust and risk affect an Internet consumer's purchasing decision? To answer this question I’ve developed a theoretical framework describing the trust-based decision-making process a consumer uses when making a purchase from a given site. Consumer disposition to trust, reputation, privacy concerns, security concerns, the information quality of the Website, and the company's reputation, have strong effects on Internet consumers' trust in the Website.

  6. Risk analysis in radiosurgery treatments using risk matrices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delgado, J. M.; Sanchez Cayela, C.; Ramirez, M. L.; Perez, A.

    2011-01-01

    The aim of this study is the risk analysis process stereotactic single-dose radiotherapy and evaluation of those initiating events that lead to increased risk and a possible solution in the design of barriers.

  7. Vehicle rollover risk and electronic stability control systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacLennan, P A; Marshall, T; Griffin, R; Purcell, M; McGwin, G; Rue, L W

    2008-06-01

    Electronic stability control (ESC) systems were developed to reduce motor vehicle collisions (MVCs) caused by loss of control. Introduced in Europe in 1995 and in the USA in 1996, ESC is designed to improve vehicle lateral stability by electronically detecting and automatically assisting drivers in unfavorable situations. To examine the relationship between vehicle rollover risk and presence of ESC using a large national database of MVCs. A retrospective cohort study for the period 1995 through 2006 was carried out using data obtained from the National Automotive Sampling System General Estimates System. All passenger cars and sport utility vehicles (SUVs)/vans of model year 1996 and later were eligible. Vehicle ESC (unavailable, optional, standard) was determined on the basis of make, model, and model year. Risk ratios (RRs) and 95% CIs were calculated to compare rollover risk by vehicle ESC group. For all crashes, vehicles equipped with standard ESC had decreased risk of rollover (RR = 0.62, 95% CI 0.50 to 0.77) compared with vehicles with ESC unavailable. The association was consistent for single-vehicle MVCs (RR = 0.61, 95% CI 0.46 to 0.82); passenger cars had decreased rollover risk (RR = 0.77, 95% CI 0.52 to 1.12), but SUVs/vans had a more dramatically decreased risk (RR = 0.40, 95% CI 0.26 to 0.61). This study supports previous results showing ESC to be effective in reducing the risk of rollover. ESC is more effective in SUVs/vans for rollovers related to single-vehicle MVCs.

  8. Analysis of electronic circuits using digital computers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tapu, C.

    1968-01-01

    Various programmes have been proposed for studying electronic circuits with the help of computers. It is shown here how it possible to use the programme ECAP, developed by I.B.M., for studying the behaviour of an operational amplifier from different point of view: direct current, alternating current and transient state analysis, optimisation of the gain in open loop, study of the reliability. (author) [fr

  9. Risk Analysis Group annual progress report 1984

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1985-06-01

    The activities of the Risk Analysis Group at Risoe during 1984 are presented. These include descriptions in some detail of work on general development topics and risk analysis performed as contractor. (author)

  10. RISK ANALYSIS IN MILK PROCESSING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. PIRVUTOIU

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper aimed to evaluate Risk bankruptcy using “Score Method” based on Canon and Holder’s Model. The data were collected from the Balance Sheet and Profit and Loss Account for the period 2005-2007, recorded by a Meat processing Plant (Rador Commercial Company .The study has put in evidence the financial situation of the company,the level of the main financial ratios fundamenting the calculation of Z score function value in the three years The low values of Z score function recorded every year reflects that the company is still facing backruptcy. However , the worst situation was recorded in the years 2005 and 2006, when baknruptcy risk was ranging between 70 – 80 % . In the year 2007, the risk bankruptcy was lower, ranging between 50-70 % , as Z function recorded a value lower than 4 .For Meat processing companies such an analysis is compulsory at present as long as business environment is very risky in our country.

  11. Risk analysis; Analisis de riesgos

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baron, J H; Nunez McLeod, J; Rivera, S S [Universidad Nacional de Cuyo, Mendoza (Argentina). Instituto de Capacitacion Especial y Desarrollo de Ingenieria Asistida por Computadora (CEDIAC)

    1997-07-01

    This book contains a selection of research works performed in the CEDIAC Institute (Cuyo National University) in the area of Risk Analysis, with specific orientations to the subjects of uncertainty and sensitivity studies, software reliability, severe accident modeling, etc. This volume presents important material for all those researches who want to have an insight in the risk analysis field, as a tool to solution several problems frequently found in the engineering and applied sciences field, as well as for the academic teachers who want to keep up to date, including the new developments and improvements continuously arising in this field. [Spanish] Este libro contiene una seleccion de trabajos de investigacion realizados dentro del Instituto de Capacitacion Especial y Desarrollo de la Ingenieria Asistida por Computadora en el area del analisis de riesgos, con una orientacion hacia el estudio de incertidumbres y sensibilidad, confiabilidad de software, modelacion de accidentes severos, etc. Este volumen recoge un material de indudable importancia e interes para todos aquellos investigadores y profesionales que desean incursionar en este campo del analisis de riesgos como herramienta para la solucion de problemas frecuentemente encontrados en la ingenieria y las ciencias aplicadas, asi como para los academicos que desean mantenerse al dia, conociendo los nuevos desarrollos y tecnicas que constantemente aparecen en su area.

  12. A background to risk analysis. Vol. 3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, J.R.

    1979-01-01

    This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles, and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justifi- cation or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appenix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 3 contains chapters on quantification of risk, failure and accident probability, risk analysis and design, and examles of risk analysis for process plant. (BP)

  13. A background risk analysis. Vol. 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, J.R.

    1979-01-01

    This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles, and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques, described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justification or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appendix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 1 contains a short history of risk analysis, and chapters on risk, failures, errors and accidents, and general procedures for risk analysis. (BP)

  14. Coronary artery disease risk assessment from unstructured electronic health records using text mining.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jonnagaddala, Jitendra; Liaw, Siaw-Teng; Ray, Pradeep; Kumar, Manish; Chang, Nai-Wen; Dai, Hong-Jie

    2015-12-01

    Coronary artery disease (CAD) often leads to myocardial infarction, which may be fatal. Risk factors can be used to predict CAD, which may subsequently lead to prevention or early intervention. Patient data such as co-morbidities, medication history, social history and family history are required to determine the risk factors for a disease. However, risk factor data are usually embedded in unstructured clinical narratives if the data is not collected specifically for risk assessment purposes. Clinical text mining can be used to extract data related to risk factors from unstructured clinical notes. This study presents methods to extract Framingham risk factors from unstructured electronic health records using clinical text mining and to calculate 10-year coronary artery disease risk scores in a cohort of diabetic patients. We developed a rule-based system to extract risk factors: age, gender, total cholesterol, HDL-C, blood pressure, diabetes history and smoking history. The results showed that the output from the text mining system was reliable, but there was a significant amount of missing data to calculate the Framingham risk score. A systematic approach for understanding missing data was followed by implementation of imputation strategies. An analysis of the 10-year Framingham risk scores for coronary artery disease in this cohort has shown that the majority of the diabetic patients are at moderate risk of CAD. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Neonatal Nurses Experience Unintended Consequences and Risks to Patient Safety With Electronic Health Records.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dudding, Katherine M; Gephart, Sheila M; Carrington, Jane M

    2018-04-01

    In this article, we examine the unintended consequences of nurses' use of electronic health records. We define these as unforeseen events, change in workflow, or an unanticipated result of implementation and use of electronic health records. Unintended consequences experienced by nurses while using electronic health records have been well researched. However, few studies have focused on neonatal nurses, and it is unclear to what extent unintended consequences threaten patient safety. A new instrument called the Carrington-Gephart Unintended Consequences of Electronic Health Record Questionnaire has been validated, and secondary analysis using the tool explored the phenomena among neonatal nurses (N = 40). The purposes of this study were to describe unintended consequences of use of electronic health records for neonatal nurses and to explore relationships between the phenomena and characteristics of the nurse and the electronic health record. The most frequent unintended consequences of electronic health record use were due to interruptions, followed by a heavier workload due to the electronic health record, changes to the workflow, and altered communication patterns. Neonatal nurses used workarounds most often with motivation to better assist patients. Teamwork was moderately related to higher unintended consequences including patient safety risks (r = 0.427, P = .007), system design (r = 0.419, P = .009), and technology barriers (r = 0.431, P = .007). Communication about patients was reduced when patient safety risks were high (r = -0.437, P = .003). By determining the frequency with which neonatal nurses experience unintended consequences of electronic health record use, future research can be targeted to improve electronic health record design through customization, integration, and refinement to support patient safety and better outcomes.

  16. Comprehensive analysis of electron correlations in three-electron atoms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morishita, T.; Lin, C.D.

    1999-01-01

    We study the electron correlations in singly, doubly, and triply excited states of a three-electron atom. While electron correlation in general is weak for singly excited states, correlation plays major roles in determining the characteristics of doubly and triply excited states. Using the adiabatic approximation in hyperspherical coordinates, we show that the distinction between singly, doubly, and triply excited states is determined by the radial correlations, while finer distinctions within doubly or triply excited states lie in the angular correlations. Partial projections of the body-fixed frame wave functions are used to demonstrate the characteristic nodal surfaces which provide clues to the energy ordering of the states. We show that doubly excited states of a three-electron atom exhibit correlations that are similar to the doubly excited states of a two-electron atom. For the triply excited states, we show that the motion of the three electrons resemble approximately that of a symmetric top. copyright 1999 The American Physical Society

  17. RAMS (Risk Analysis - Modular System) methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stenner, R.D.; Strenge, D.L.; Buck, J.W. [and others

    1996-10-01

    The Risk Analysis - Modular System (RAMS) was developed to serve as a broad scope risk analysis tool for the Risk Assessment of the Hanford Mission (RAHM) studies. The RAHM element provides risk analysis support for Hanford Strategic Analysis and Mission Planning activities. The RAHM also provides risk analysis support for the Hanford 10-Year Plan development activities. The RAMS tool draws from a collection of specifically designed databases and modular risk analysis methodologies and models. RAMS is a flexible modular system that can be focused on targeted risk analysis needs. It is specifically designed to address risks associated with overall strategy, technical alternative, and `what if` questions regarding the Hanford cleanup mission. RAMS is set up to address both near-term and long-term risk issues. Consistency is very important for any comparative risk analysis, and RAMS is designed to efficiently and consistently compare risks and produce risk reduction estimates. There is a wide range of output information that can be generated by RAMS. These outputs can be detailed by individual contaminants, waste forms, transport pathways, exposure scenarios, individuals, populations, etc. However, they can also be in rolled-up form to support high-level strategy decisions.

  18. Streamlining project delivery through risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-08-01

    Project delivery is a significant area of concern and is subject to several risks throughout Plan Development : Process (PDP). These risks are attributed to major areas of project development, such as environmental : analysis, right-of-way (ROW) acqu...

  19. Analysis of risk factors of diabetic retinopathy based on Residents' Electronic Health Record%基于居民健康档案的糖尿病视网膜病变相关危险因素分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    金轶平

    2015-01-01

    ObjectiveUsing the digitalfundus disease tele-screening system combined with risidents’ eHR (Electronic Health Record) to analyze the risk factors of diabetic retinopathy in diabetes patients. Methods 217 diabetes mellitus residents were randomly selected for diabetes retinopathy (DR) system evaluation. According to the information recorded in eHR to statistical analyze the DR related risk factors by ANOVA analysis of single factor variance, using P<0.05 as the difference has statistical significance. Results 217 cases (415 eyes) diabetic patients, DR positive group (27 cases), the non DR group (190 cases), the system detected DR prevalence rate is about 12.44%.Results indicate that duration of diabetes and the kinds of diabetes medication associated with DR (P<0.01),the number of diseases may be associated with DR (P =0.056).Conclusion DM duration long, glucose variability, more chronic diseases are associated with the onset of DR.%目的:通过远程眼底阅片系统联合居民个人电子健康档案(Electronic Health Record, eHR)对社区糖尿病(diabetes mellitus,DM)患者进行糖尿病视网膜病变(diabetic retinopathy,DR)相关危险因素分析。方法:随机抽取217例社区DM患者进行DR筛查,对 eHR中记录的健康信息进行DR相关危险因素统计分析。应用SPSS 19.0统计学软件进行数据处理,对各相关因素进行ANOVA单因素方差分析,以P<0.05作为差异有统计学意义。结果:217例(415眼)DM患者中,检出DR组(27例)、非DR组(190例),通过该系统检出的DR患病率约为12.44%。2组各项指标比较显示:DR组DM病程及使用的降血糖药物种类明显多于非DR组(190例)差异性(P<0.01);而对于合并慢性病数量(高血压、脑梗塞、冠心病、高脂血症)可能与DR发生相关(P =0.056)。结论:DM病程长,血糖控制不理想,合并慢性疾病种类多等与DR发病相关。

  20. Risk mitigation strategy for the ITER electron cyclotron upper port launcher

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goede, A.P.H.; Bongers, W.A.; Elzendoorn, B.S.Q.; Graswinckel, M.F.; Baar, M.R. de

    2010-01-01

    A basic requirement for ITER equipment to meet is a high level of reliability, because ITER operation time is precious and radioactive operation leaves limited scope for repair. In order to reduce the risk of failure during ITER operation an effective risk mitigation strategy is necessary. This paper presents such strategy for the ITER electron cyclotron upper port launcher (ECUPL). A preliminary ECUPL risk analysis identifies possible failure modes. A probabilistic risk assessment quantifies the risk of failure using a 4 x 4 impact-likelihood matrix. Impact is quantified through technical, cost and schedule elements. Likelihood depends on the risk mitigation strategy adopted. A cost benefit analysis determines the most cost effective risk mitigation strategy. An essential element in risk mitigation is the testing of equipment prior to installation on the ITER machine. This paper argues the need for low- and highpower millimetre wave tests carried out on the fully assembled ECUPL. It presents a conceptual design for a dedicated on-site test bed that can handle 2 of 8 microwave beams at 2 MW long pulse operation.

  1. The effect of introducing increased-reliability-risk electronic components into 3rd generation telecommunications systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salmela, Olli

    2005-01-01

    In this paper, the dependability of 3rd generation telecommunications network systems is studied. Special attention is paid to a case where increased-reliability-risk electronic components are introduced to the system. The paper consists of three parts: First, the reliability data of four electronic components is considered. This includes statistical analysis of the reliability test data, thermo-mechanical finite element analysis of the printed wiring board structures, and based on those, a field reliability estimate of the components is constructed. Second, the component level reliability data is introduced into the network element reliability analysis. This is accomplished by using a reliability block diagram technique and Monte Carlo simulation of the network element. The end result of the second part is a reliability estimate of the network element with and without the high-risk component. Third, the whole 3rd generation network having multiple network elements is analyzed. In this part, the criticality of introducing high-risk electronic components into a 3rd generation telecommunications network is considered

  2. The effect of introducing increased-reliability-risk electronic components into 3rd generation telecommunications systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salmela, Olli [Nokia Networks, P.O. Box 301, 00045 Nokia Group (Finland)]. E-mail: olli.salmela@nokia.com

    2005-08-01

    In this paper, the dependability of 3rd generation telecommunications network systems is studied. Special attention is paid to a case where increased-reliability-risk electronic components are introduced to the system. The paper consists of three parts: First, the reliability data of four electronic components is considered. This includes statistical analysis of the reliability test data, thermo-mechanical finite element analysis of the printed wiring board structures, and based on those, a field reliability estimate of the components is constructed. Second, the component level reliability data is introduced into the network element reliability analysis. This is accomplished by using a reliability block diagram technique and Monte Carlo simulation of the network element. The end result of the second part is a reliability estimate of the network element with and without the high-risk component. Third, the whole 3rd generation network having multiple network elements is analyzed. In this part, the criticality of introducing high-risk electronic components into a 3rd generation telecommunications network is considered.

  3. Applications of electronic noses in meat analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elżbieta GÓRSKA-HORCZYCZAK

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Electronic noses are devices able to characterize and differentiate the aroma profiles of various food, especially meat and meat products. During recent years e-noses have been widely used in food analysis and proved to provide a fast, simple, non-expensive and non-destructive method of food assessment and quality control. The aim of this study is to summarize the most important features of this analytic tool and to present basic fields and typical areas of e-nose use as well as most commonly used sensor types and patterns for e-nose design. Prospects for the future development of this technique are presented. Methods and research results presented in this manuscript may be a guideline for practical e-nose use.

  4. Extending electronic length frequency analysis in R

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Taylor, M. H.; Mildenberger, Tobias K.

    2017-01-01

    VBGF (soVBGF) requires a more intensive search due to two additional parameters. This work describes the implementation of two optimisation approaches ("simulated annealing" and "genetic algorithm") for growth function fitting using the open-source software "R." Using a generated LFQ data set......Electronic length frequency analysis (ELEFAN) is a system of stock assessment methods using length-frequency (LFQ) data. One step is the estimation of growth from the progression of LFQ modes through time using the von Bertalanffy growth function (VBGF). The option to fit a seasonally oscillating...... of the asymptotic length parameter (L-infinity) are found to have significant effects on parameter estimation error. An outlook provides context as to the significance of the R-based implementation for further testing and development, as well as the general relevance of the method for data-limited stock assessment....

  5. A probabilistic topic model for clinical risk stratification from electronic health records.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Zhengxing; Dong, Wei; Duan, Huilong

    2015-12-01

    Risk stratification aims to provide physicians with the accurate assessment of a patient's clinical risk such that an individualized prevention or management strategy can be developed and delivered. Existing risk stratification techniques mainly focus on predicting the overall risk of an individual patient in a supervised manner, and, at the cohort level, often offer little insight beyond a flat score-based segmentation from the labeled clinical dataset. To this end, in this paper, we propose a new approach for risk stratification by exploring a large volume of electronic health records (EHRs) in an unsupervised fashion. Along this line, this paper proposes a novel probabilistic topic modeling framework called probabilistic risk stratification model (PRSM) based on Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA). The proposed PRSM recognizes a patient clinical state as a probabilistic combination of latent sub-profiles, and generates sub-profile-specific risk tiers of patients from their EHRs in a fully unsupervised fashion. The achieved stratification results can be easily recognized as high-, medium- and low-risk, respectively. In addition, we present an extension of PRSM, called weakly supervised PRSM (WS-PRSM) by incorporating minimum prior information into the model, in order to improve the risk stratification accuracy, and to make our models highly portable to risk stratification tasks of various diseases. We verify the effectiveness of the proposed approach on a clinical dataset containing 3463 coronary heart disease (CHD) patient instances. Both PRSM and WS-PRSM were compared with two established supervised risk stratification algorithms, i.e., logistic regression and support vector machine, and showed the effectiveness of our models in risk stratification of CHD in terms of the Area Under the receiver operating characteristic Curve (AUC) analysis. As well, in comparison with PRSM, WS-PRSM has over 2% performance gain, on the experimental dataset, demonstrating that

  6. Risk analysis and safety rationale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bengtsson, G.

    1989-01-01

    Decision making with respect to safety is becoming more and more complex. The risk involved must be taken into account together with numerous other factors such as the benefits, the uncertainties and the public perception. Can the decision maker be aided by some kind of system, general rules of thumb, or broader perspective on similar decisions? This question has been addressed in a joint Nordic project relating to nuclear power. Modern techniques for risk assessment and management have been studied, and parallels drawn to such areas as offshore safety and management of toxic chemicals in the environment. The report summarises the finding of 5 major technical reports which have been published in the NORD-series. The topics includes developments, uncertainties and limitations in probabilistic safety assessments, negligible risks, risk-cost trade-offs, optimisation of nuclear safety and radiation protection, and the role of risks in the decision making process. (author) 84 refs

  7. A background to risk analysis. Vol. 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, J.R.

    1979-01-01

    This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justification or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appendix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 2 treats generic methods of qualitative failure analysis. (BP)

  8. Risk Analysis of Telecom Enterprise Financing

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YU Hua; SHU Hua-ying

    2005-01-01

    The main research objects in this paper are the causes searching and risk estimating method for telecom enterprises' financial risks. The multi-mode financing for telecom enterprises makes it flexible to induce the capital and obtain the profit by corresponding projects. But there are also potential risks going with these financing modes. After making analysis of categories and causes of telecom enterprises' financing risk, a method by Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is put forward to estimating the financing risk. And the author makes her suggestion and opinion by example analysis, in order to provide some ideas and basis for telecom enterprise's financing decision-making.

  9. PRA and Risk Informed Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernsen, Sidney A.; Simonen, Fredric A.; Balkey, Kenneth R.

    2006-01-01

    The Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code (BPVC) of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) has introduced a risk based approach into Section XI that covers Rules for Inservice Inspection of Nuclear Power Plant Components. The risk based approach requires application of the probabilistic risk assessments (PRA). Because no industry consensus standard existed for PRAs, ASME has developed a standard to evaluate the quality level of an available PRA needed to support a given risk based application. The paper describes the PRA standard, Section XI application of PRAs, and plans for broader applications of PRAs to other ASME nuclear codes and standards. The paper addresses several specific topics of interest to Section XI. Important consideration are special methods (surrogate components) used to overcome the lack of PRA treatments of passive components in PRAs. The approach allows calculations of conditional core damage probabilities both for component failures that cause initiating events and failures in standby systems that decrease the availability of these systems. The paper relates the explicit risk based methods of the new Section XI code cases to the implicit consideration of risk used in the development of Section XI. Other topics include the needed interactions of ISI engineers, plant operating staff, PRA specialists, and members of expert panels that review the risk based programs

  10. Advances in Risk Analysis with Big Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Tsan-Ming; Lambert, James H

    2017-08-01

    With cloud computing, Internet-of-things, wireless sensors, social media, fast storage and retrieval, etc., organizations and enterprises have access to unprecedented amounts and varieties of data. Current risk analysis methodology and applications are experiencing related advances and breakthroughs. For example, highway operations data are readily available, and making use of them reduces risks of traffic crashes and travel delays. Massive data of financial and enterprise systems support decision making under risk by individuals, industries, regulators, etc. In this introductory article, we first discuss the meaning of big data for risk analysis. We then examine recent advances in risk analysis with big data in several topic areas. For each area, we identify and introduce the relevant articles that are featured in the special issue. We conclude with a discussion on future research opportunities. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  11. 38 CFR 75.115 - Risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Risk analysis. 75.115 Section 75.115 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS (CONTINUED) INFORMATION SECURITY MATTERS Data Breaches § 75.115 Risk analysis. If a data breach involving sensitive personal information that is processed or...

  12. A background to risk analysis. Vol. 4

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, J.R.

    1979-01-01

    This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles, and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justification or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appendix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 4 treats human error in plant operation. (BP)

  13. Validation of a Delirium Risk Assessment Using Electronic Medical Record Information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudolph, James L; Doherty, Kelly; Kelly, Brittany; Driver, Jane A; Archambault, Elizabeth

    2016-03-01

    Identifying patients at risk for delirium allows prompt application of prevention, diagnostic, and treatment strategies; but is rarely done. Once delirium develops, patients are more likely to need posthospitalization skilled care. This study developed an a priori electronic prediction rule using independent risk factors identified in a National Center of Clinical Excellence meta-analysis and validated the ability to predict delirium in 2 cohorts. Retrospective analysis followed by prospective validation. Tertiary VA Hospital in New England. A total of 27,625 medical records of hospitalized patients and 246 prospectively enrolled patients admitted to the hospital. The electronic delirium risk prediction rule was created using data obtained from the patient electronic medical record (EMR). The primary outcome, delirium, was identified 2 ways: (1) from the EMR (retrospective cohort) and (2) clinical assessment on enrollment and daily thereafter (prospective participants). We assessed discrimination of the delirium prediction rule with the C-statistic. Secondary outcomes were length of stay and discharge to rehabilitation. Retrospectively, delirium was identified in 8% of medical records (n = 2343); prospectively, delirium during hospitalization was present in 26% of participants (n = 64). In the retrospective cohort, medical record delirium was identified in 2%, 3%, 11%, and 38% of the low, intermediate, high, and very high-risk groups, respectively (C-statistic = 0.81; 95% confidence interval 0.80-0.82). Prospectively, the electronic prediction rule identified delirium in 15%, 18%, 31%, and 55% of these groups (C-statistic = 0.69; 95% confidence interval 0.61-0.77). Compared with low-risk patients, those at high- or very high delirium risk had increased length of stay (5.7 ± 5.6 vs 3.7 ± 2.7 days; P = .001) and higher rates of discharge to rehabilitation (8.9% vs 20.8%; P = .02). Automatic calculation of delirium risk using an EMR algorithm identifies patients at

  14. Reliability and validity of risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aven, Terje; Heide, Bjornar

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we investigate to what extent risk analysis meets the scientific quality requirements of reliability and validity. We distinguish between two types of approaches within risk analysis, relative frequency-based approaches and Bayesian approaches. The former category includes both traditional statistical inference methods and the so-called probability of frequency approach. Depending on the risk analysis approach, the aim of the analysis is different, the results are presented in different ways and consequently the meaning of the concepts reliability and validity are not the same.

  15. ePORT, NASA's Computer Database Program for System Safety Risk Management Oversight (Electronic Project Online Risk Tool)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Paul W.

    2008-01-01

    ePORT (electronic Project Online Risk Tool) provides a systematic approach to using an electronic database program to manage a program/project risk management processes. This presentation will briefly cover the standard risk management procedures, then thoroughly cover NASA's Risk Management tool called ePORT. This electronic Project Online Risk Tool (ePORT) is a web-based risk management program that provides a common framework to capture and manage risks, independent of a programs/projects size and budget. It is used to thoroughly cover the risk management paradigm providing standardized evaluation criterion for common management reporting, ePORT improves Product Line, Center and Corporate Management insight, simplifies program/project manager reporting, and maintains an archive of data for historical reference.

  16. EC Transmission Line Risk Identification and Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bigelow, Tim S [ORNL

    2012-04-01

    The purpose of this document is to assist in evaluating and planning for the cost, schedule, and technical project risks associated with the delivery and operation of the EC (Electron cyclotron) transmission line system. In general, the major risks that are anticipated to be encountered during the project delivery phase associated with the implementation of the Procurement Arrangement for the EC transmission line system are associated with: (1) Undefined or changing requirements (e.g., functional or regulatory requirements) (2) Underperformance of prototype, first unit, or production components during testing (3) Unavailability of qualified vendors for critical components Technical risks associated with the design and operation of the system are also identified.

  17. Probabilistic risk analysis for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hauptmanns, U.

    1988-01-01

    Risk analysis is applied if the calculation of risk from observed failures is not possible, because events contributing substantially to risk are too seldom, as in the case of nuclear reactors. The process of analysis provides a number of benefits. Some of them are listed. After this by no means complete enumeration of possible benefits to be derived from a risk analysis. An outline of risk studiesd for PWR's with some comments on the models used are given. The presentation is indebted to the detailed treatment of the subject given in the PRA Procedures Guide. Thereafter some results of the German Risk Study, Phase B, which is under way are communicated. The paper concludes with some remarks on probabilistic considerations in licensing procedures. (orig./DG)

  18. Bias in risk-benefit analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mazur, A.

    1985-01-01

    Risk-benefit analysis has become popular in the past decade as a means of improving decision making, especially in the area of technology policy. Here risk-benefit analysis is compared to other (equally defensible) approaches to decision making, showing how it favors some political interests more than others, and suggesting why it has recently come to the fore as a tool of political analysis. A considerable portion of the discussion concerns nuclear power. 6 references

  19. Collision Risk Analysis for HSC

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Urban, Jesper; Pedersen, Preben Terndrup; Simonsen, Bo Cerup

    1999-01-01

    High Speed Craft (HSC) have a risk profile, which is distinctly different from conventional ferries. Due to different hull building material, structural layout, compartmentation and operation, both frequency and consequences of collision and grounding accidents must be expected to be different fr...

  20. Analysis of labour risks in the Spanish industrial aerospace sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JUAN LAGUARDIA

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Labour risk prevention is an activity integrated within Safety and Hygiene at Work in Spain. In 2003, the Electronic Declaration for Accidents at Work, Delt@ (DELTA was introduced. The industrial aerospace sector is subject to various risks. Our objective is to analyse the Spanish Industrial Aerospace Sector (SIAS using the ACSOM methodology to assess its labour risks and to prioritise preventive actions. The SIAS and the Services Subsector (SS were created and the relevant accident rate data were obtained. The ACSOM method was applied through double contrast (deviation and translocation of the SIAS or SS risk polygon with the considered pattern, accidents from all sectors (ACSOM G or the SIAS. A list of risks was obtained, ordered by action phases. In the SIAS vs. ACSOM G analysis, radiation risks were the worst, followed by overstrains. Accidents caused by living beings were also significant in the SS vs. SIAE, which will be able to be used to improve Risk Prevention. Radiation is the most significant risk in the SIAS and the SS. Preventive actions will be primary and secondary. ACSOM has shown itself to be a valid tool for the analysis of labour risks.

  1. Analysis of labour risks in the Spanish industrial aerospace sector.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laguardia, Juan; Rubio, Emilio; Garcia, Ana; Garcia-Foncillas, Rafael

    2016-01-01

    Labour risk prevention is an activity integrated within Safety and Hygiene at Work in Spain. In 2003, the Electronic Declaration for Accidents at Work, Delt@ (DELTA) was introduced. The industrial aerospace sector is subject to various risks. Our objective is to analyse the Spanish Industrial Aerospace Sector (SIAS) using the ACSOM methodology to assess its labour risks and to prioritise preventive actions. The SIAS and the Services Subsector (SS) were created and the relevant accident rate data were obtained. The ACSOM method was applied through double contrast (deviation and translocation) of the SIAS or SS risk polygon with the considered pattern, accidents from all sectors (ACSOM G) or the SIAS. A list of risks was obtained, ordered by action phases. In the SIAS vs. ACSOM G analysis, radiation risks were the worst, followed by overstrains. Accidents caused by living beings were also significant in the SS vs. SIAE, which will be able to be used to improve Risk Prevention. Radiation is the most significant risk in the SIAS and the SS. Preventive actions will be primary and secondary. ACSOM has shown itself to be a valid tool for the analysis of labour risks.

  2. Generalized indices for radiation risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bykov, A.A.; Demin, V.F.

    1989-01-01

    A new approach to ensuring nuclear safety has begun forming since the early eighties. The approach based on the probabilistic safety analysis, the principles of acceptable risk, the optimization of safety measures, etc. has forced a complex of adequate quantitative methods of assessment, safety analysis and risk management to be developed. The method of radiation risk assessment and analysis hold a prominent place in the complex. National and international research and regulatory organizations ICRP, IAEA, WHO, UNSCEAR, OECD/NEA have given much attention to the development of the conceptual and methodological basis of those methods. Some resolutions of the National Commission of Radiological Protection (NCRP) and the Problem Commission on Radiation Hygiene of the USSR Ministry of Health should be also noted. Both CBA (cost benefit analysis) and other methods of radiation risk analysis and safety management use a system of natural and socio-economic indices characterizing the radiation risk or damage. There exist a number of problems associated with the introduction, justification and use of these indices. For example, the price, a, of radiation damage, or collective dose unit, is a noteworthy index. The difficulties in its qualitative and quantitative determination are still an obstacle for a wide application of CBA to the radiation risk analysis and management. During recent 10-15 years these problems have been a subject of consideration for many authors. The present paper also considers the issues of the qualitative and quantitative justification of the indices of radiation risk analysis

  3. Safety analysis, risk assessment, and risk acceptance criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jamali, K.

    1997-01-01

    This paper discusses a number of topics that relate safety analysis as documented in the Department of Energy (DOE) safety analysis reports (SARs), probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) as characterized primarily in the context of the techniques that have assumed some level of formality in commercial nuclear power plant applications, and risk acceptance criteria as an outgrowth of PRA applications. DOE SARs of interest are those that are prepared for DOE facilities under DOE Order 5480.23 and the implementing guidance in DOE STD-3009-94. It must be noted that the primary area of application for DOE STD-3009 is existing DOE facilities and that certain modifications of the STD-3009 approach are necessary in SARs for new facilities. Moreover, it is the hazard analysis (HA) and accident analysis (AA) portions of these SARs that are relevant to the present discussions. Although PRAs can be qualitative in nature, PRA as used in this paper refers more generally to all quantitative risk assessments and their underlying methods. HA as used in this paper refers more generally to all qualitative risk assessments and their underlying methods that have been in use in hazardous facilities other than nuclear power plants. This discussion includes both quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methods. PRA has been used, improved, developed, and refined since the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) was published in 1975 by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Much debate has ensued since WASH-1400 on exactly what the role of PRA should be in plant design, reactor licensing, 'ensuring' plant and process safety, and a large number of other decisions that must be made for potentially hazardous activities. Of particular interest in this area is whether the risks quantified using PRA should be compared with numerical risk acceptance criteria (RACs) to determine whether a facility is 'safe.' Use of RACs requires quantitative estimates of consequence frequency and magnitude

  4. Center Line Slope Analysis in Two-Dimensional Electronic Spectroscopy

    OpenAIRE

    ?anda, Franti?ek; Perl?k, V?clav; Lincoln, Craig N.; Hauer, J?rgen

    2015-01-01

    Center line slope (CLS) analysis in 2D infrared spectroscopy has been extensively used to extract frequency?frequency correlation functions of vibrational transitions. We apply this concept to 2D electronic spectroscopy, where CLS is a measure of electronic gap fluctuations. The two domains, infrared and electronic, possess differences: In the infrared, the frequency fluctuations are classical, often slow and Gaussian. In contrast, electronic spectra are subject to fast spectral diffusion and...

  5. GIS risk analysis of hazardous materials transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anders, C.; Olsten, J.

    1991-01-01

    The Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to assess the risks and vulnerability of transporting hazardous materials and wastes (such as gasoline, explosives, poisons, etc) on the Arizona highway system. This paper discusses the methodology that was utilized, and the application of GIS systems to risk analysis problems

  6. Dealing with phenomenological uncertainty in risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Theofanous, T.G.

    1994-01-01

    The Risk-Oriented Accident Analysis Methodology (ROAAM) is summarized and developed further towards a formal definition. The key ideas behind the methodology and these more formal aspects are also presented and discussed

  7. Risk and safety analysis of nuclear systems

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lee, John C; McCormick, Norman J

    2011-01-01

    .... The first half of the book covers the principles of risk analysis, the techniques used to develop and update a reliability data base, the reliability of multi-component systems, Markov methods used...

  8. Risk analysis for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koelzer, W.

    1983-01-01

    The German risk analysis program for nuclear power plants aiming at the man and the environment is presented. An accident consequence model to calculate the radiological impact and the potential health effects is described. (E.G.) [pt

  9. Analysis and simulation of BGK electron holes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Muschietti

    1999-01-01

    Full Text Available Recent observations from satellites crossing regions of magnetic-field-aligned electron streams reveal solitary potential structures that move at speeds much greater than the ion acoustic/thermal velocity. The structures appear as positive potential pulses rapidly drifting along the magnetic field, and are electrostatic in their rest frame. We interpret them as BGK electron holes supported by a drifting population of trapped electrons. Using Laplace transforms, we analyse the behavior of one phase-space electron hole. The resulting potential shapes and electron distribution functions are self-consistent and compatible with the field and particle data associated with the observed pulses. In particular, the spatial width increases with increasing amplitude. The stability of the analytic solution is tested by means of a two-dimensional particle-in-cell simulation code with open boundaries. We consider a strongly magnetized parameter regime in which the bounce frequency of the trapped electrons is much less than their gyrofrequency. Our investigation includes the influence of the ions, which in the frame of the hole appear as an incident beam, and impinge on the BGK potential with considerable energy. The nonlinear structure is remarkably resilient

  10. Security analysis of electronic voting and online banking systems

    OpenAIRE

    Tjøstheim, Thomas

    2007-01-01

    The main focus of this dissertation is on security analysis of electronic voting and online banking systems. Six papers form the basis of the thesis and include the following topics: a model for analysis of voting systems, a case study where we apply the proposed model, a new scheme for remote electronic voting, and three case studies of commercial online banking solutions in Norway.

  11. Probabilistic risk analysis in chemical engineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmalz, F.

    1991-01-01

    In risk analysis in the chemical industry, recognising potential risks is considered more important than assessing their quantitative extent. Even in assessing risks, emphasis is not on the probability involved but on the possible extent. Qualitative assessment has proved valuable here. Probabilistic methods are used in individual cases where the wide implications make it essential to be able to assess the reliability of safety precautions. In this case, assessment therefore centres on the reliability of technical systems and not on the extent of a chemical risk. 7 figs

  12. Analysis of emissions from prebunched electron beams

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jia Qika

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The emissions of the prebunched electron beam, including the coherent spontaneous emission and the self-amplified stimulated emission, are analyzed by using one-dimensional FEL theory. Neglecting the interaction of the electrons and the radiation field, the formula of the coherent spontaneous emission is given, the power of which is proportional to the square of the initial bunching factor and of the undulator length. For the general emission case of the prebunched electron beam, the evolution equation of the optical field is deducted. Then the analytical expression of the emission power is obtained for the resonant case; it is applicable to the regions from the low gain to the high gain. It is found that when the undulator length is shorter than four gain lengths, the emission is just the coherent spontaneous emission, and conversely, it is the self-amplified stimulated emission growing exponentially. For the nonresonant prebunched electron beam, the variations of the emission intensity with the detuning parameter for different interaction length are presented. The radiation field characters of the prebunched electron beam are discussed and compared with that of the seeded FEL amplifier.

  13. Isotope analysis in the transmission electron microscope.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Susi, Toma; Hofer, Christoph; Argentero, Giacomo; Leuthner, Gregor T; Pennycook, Timothy J; Mangler, Clemens; Meyer, Jannik C; Kotakoski, Jani

    2016-10-10

    The Ångström-sized probe of the scanning transmission electron microscope can visualize and collect spectra from single atoms. This can unambiguously resolve the chemical structure of materials, but not their isotopic composition. Here we differentiate between two isotopes of the same element by quantifying how likely the energetic imaging electrons are to eject atoms. First, we measure the displacement probability in graphene grown from either 12 C or 13 C and describe the process using a quantum mechanical model of lattice vibrations coupled with density functional theory simulations. We then test our spatial resolution in a mixed sample by ejecting individual atoms from nanoscale areas spanning an interface region that is far from atomically sharp, mapping the isotope concentration with a precision better than 20%. Although we use a scanning instrument, our method may be applicable to any atomic resolution transmission electron microscope and to other low-dimensional materials.

  14. Reliability and risk analysis methods research plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1984-10-01

    This document presents a plan for reliability and risk analysis methods research to be performed mainly by the Reactor Risk Branch (RRB), Division of Risk Analysis and Operations (DRAO), Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research. It includes those activities of other DRAO branches which are very closely related to those of the RRB. Related or interfacing programs of other divisions, offices and organizations are merely indicated. The primary use of this document is envisioned as an NRC working document, covering about a 3-year period, to foster better coordination in reliability and risk analysis methods development between the offices of Nuclear Regulatory Research and Nuclear Reactor Regulation. It will also serve as an information source for contractors and others to more clearly understand the objectives, needs, programmatic activities and interfaces together with the overall logical structure of the program

  15. Gender Analysis of Risk in Innovation System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ayinde, Ope; Muchie, Mammo; Abaniyan, E. O.

    2011-01-01

    the new maize variety. The analytical tools used include descriptive statistics, regression model; risk utility functions and risk parameter analysis. The result showed that invasion by animals, disease and pest, lack of access to credit wind and price fluctuation were the major risk facing the maize......This study analyzed risk by gender in innovation in Kwara state, Nigeria, using downy mildew resistant maize production as case study. The study employed primary and secondary data. The primary data were collected from well-structured questionnaires administered to both male and female producing...... producers in the area in the usage of the new innovation. The study also revealed that male producers were willing to take risk in the new maize variety production than the female, while the females were more indifferent to the risk involved in the new maize production variety than males. None...

  16. Intentional risk management through complex networks analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Chapela, Victor; Moral, Santiago; Romance, Miguel

    2015-01-01

    This book combines game theory and complex networks to examine intentional technological risk through modeling. As information security risks are in constant evolution,  the methodologies and tools to manage them must evolve to an ever-changing environment. A formal global methodology is explained  in this book, which is able to analyze risks in cyber security based on complex network models and ideas extracted from the Nash equilibrium. A risk management methodology for IT critical infrastructures is introduced which provides guidance and analysis on decision making models and real situations. This model manages the risk of succumbing to a digital attack and assesses an attack from the following three variables: income obtained, expense needed to carry out an attack, and the potential consequences for an attack. Graduate students and researchers interested in cyber security, complex network applications and intentional risk will find this book useful as it is filled with a number of models, methodologies a...

  17. Analysis of dependent failures in risk assessment and reliability evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleming, K.N.; Mosleh, A.; Kelley, A.P. Jr.; Gas-Cooled Reactors Associates, La Jolla, CA)

    1983-01-01

    The ability to estimate the risk of potential reactor accidents is largely determined by the ability to analyze statistically dependent multiple failures. The importance of dependent failures has been indicated in recent probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) studies as well as in reports of reactor operating experiences. This article highlights the importance of several different types of dependent failures from the perspective of the risk and reliability analyst and provides references to the methods and data available for their analysis. In addition to describing the current state of the art, some recent advances, pitfalls, misconceptions, and limitations of some approaches to dependent failure analysis are addressed. A summary is included of the discourse on this subject, which is presented in the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers/American Nuclear Society PRA Procedures Guide

  18. Work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMDs) risk assessment at core assembly production of electronic components manufacturing company

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yahya, N. M.; Zahid, M. N. O.

    2018-03-01

    This study conducted to assess the work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMDs) among the workers at core assembly production in an electronic components manufacturing company located in Pekan, Pahang, Malaysia. The study is to identify the WMDs risk factor and risk level. A set of questionnaires survey based on modified Nordic Musculoskeletal Disorder Questionnaires have been distributed to respective workers to acquire the WMDs risk factor identification. Then, postural analysis was conducted in order to measure the respective WMDs risk level. The analysis were based on two ergonomics assessment tools; Rapid Upper Limb Assessment (RULA) and Rapid Entire Body Assessment (REBA). The study found that 30 respondents out of 36 respondents suffered from WMDs especially at shoulder, wrists and lower back. The WMDs risk have been identified from unloading process, pressing process and winding process. In term of the WMDs risk level, REBA and RULA assessment tools have indicated high risk level to unloading and pressing process. Thus, this study had established the WMDs risk factor and risk level of core assembly production in an electronic components manufacturing company at Malaysia environment.

  19. Analysis on a electron gun for metal fusion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paes, A.C.J.; Galvao, R.M.O.; Boscolo, P.; Passaro, A.

    1987-09-01

    The characteristics of the electron beam of the HK-011600 Δ, electron gun for metal fusion at the 'Divisao de Materiais do Instituto de Pesquisa e Desenvolvimento do CTA (PMR/IPD/CTA)', is analyzed. In this analysis, the Pierce gun model and the SLAC computational code for electron optics are used. The electron beam R and Z profiles are obtained in the gun region and in the magnetic lenses region. The behaviour of the electron beam in the prism region is also discussed using a simple model. (author) [pt

  20. Electromagnetic Pulse Coupling Analysis of Electronic Equipment

    OpenAIRE

    Hong Lei; Qingying LI

    2017-01-01

    High-intensity nuclear explosion caused by high-altitude nuclear electromagnetic pulse through the antenna, metal cables, holes and other channels, coupled with very high energy into the electronic device, and cause serious threats. In this paper, the mechanism, waveform, coupling path and damage effect of nuclear electromagnetic pulse is analyzed, and the coupling mechanism of nuclear electromagnetic pulse is studied.

  1. Integrated methodology for production related risk management of vehicle electronics (IMPROVE)

    OpenAIRE

    Geis, Stefan Rafael

    2006-01-01

    This scientific work is designated to provide an innovative and integrated conceptional approach to improve the assembly quality of automotive electronics. This is achieved by the reduction and elimination of production related risks of automotive electronics and the implementation of a sustainable solution process. The focus is the development and implementation of an integrated technical risk management approach for automotive electronics throughout the vehicle life cycle and the vehicle pr...

  2. WIPP fire hazards and risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-05-01

    The purpose of this analysis was to conduct a fire hazards risk analysis of the Transuranic (TRU) contact-handled waste receipt, emplacement, and disposal activities at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). The technical bases and safety envelope for these operations are defined in the approved WIPP Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR). Although the safety documentation for the initial phase of the Test Program, the dry bin scale tests, has not yet been approved by the Department of Energy (DOE), reviews of the draft to date, including those by the Advisory Committee on Nuclear Facility Safety (ACNFS), have concluded that the dry bin scale tests present no significant risks in excess of those estimated in the approved WIPP FSAR. It is the opinion of the authors and reviewers of this analysis, based on sound engineering judgment and knowledge of the WIPP operations, that a Fire Hazards and Risk Analysis specific to the dry bin scale test program is not warranted prior to first waste receipt. This conclusion is further supported by the risk analysis presented in this document which demonstrates the level of risk to WIPP operations posed by fire to be extremely low. 15 refs., 41 figs., 48 tabs

  3. Energy dispersive X-ray analysis in the electron microscope

    CERN Document Server

    Bell, DC

    2003-01-01

    This book provides an in-depth description of x-ray microanalysis in the electron microscope. It is sufficiently detailed to ensure that novices will understand the nuances of high-quality EDX analysis. Includes information about hardware design as well as the physics of x-ray generation, absorption and detection, and most post-detection data processing. Details on electron optics and electron probe formation allow the novice to make sensible adjustments to the electron microscope in order to set up a system which optimises analysis. It also helps the reader determine which microanalytical me

  4. Perceived quality, perceived risk and customer trust affecting customer loyalty of environmentally friendly electronics products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lalinthorn Marakanon

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available At present, industrial business competition causes producers to be aware of quality, price, and variety in developing new products to meet the consumers' needs. This research reviewed the literature on green marketing and proposes a new conceptual framework of customer loyalty. It uses four constructs—perceived quality, perceived risk, customer trust, and customer loyalty—in the context of environmentally friendly electronics products in Thailand. This research employed an empirical study using the questionnaire survey method to verify the hypotheses. Data were obtained from 420 consumers who bought and used environmentally friendly electronic products, particularly mobile phones, computers, and laptops using a purposive sampling method. The data were analyzed using confirmatory factor analysis (CFA and structural equation modeling (SEM. The results showed that perceived risk and customer trust had a direct effect on customer loyalty while perceived quality had an indirect effect on customer loyalty via customer trust. Furthermore, perceived quality had direct effects on perceived risk and customer trust. The results from the final SEM model were used to confirm the proposed relationships among the variables.

  5. Standardised risk analysis as a communication tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pluess, Ch.; Montanarini, M.; Bernauer, M.

    1998-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: several European countries require a risk analysis for the production, storage or transport a dangerous goods. This requirement imposes considerable administrative effort for some sectors of the industry. In order to minimize the effort of such studies, a generic risk analysis for an industrial sector proved to help. Standardised procedures can consequently be derived for efficient performance of the risk investigations. This procedure was successfully established in Switzerland for natural gas transmission lines and fossil fuel storage plants. The development process of the generic risk analysis involved an intense discussion between industry and authorities about methodology of assessment and the criteria of acceptance. This process finally led to scientific consistent modelling tools for risk analysis and to an improved communication from the industry to the authorities and the public. As a recent example, the Holland-Italy natural gas transmission pipeline is demonstrated, where this method was successfully employed. Although this pipeline traverses densely populated areas in Switzerland, using this established communication method, the risk problems could be solved without delaying the planning process. (authors)

  6. Timing analysis of two-electron photoemission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kheifets, A S; Ivanov, I A; Bray, Igor

    2011-01-01

    We predict a significant delay of two-electron photoemission from the helium atom after absorption of an attosecond XUV pulse. We establish this delay by solving the time-dependent Schroedinger equation and by subsequently tracing the field-free evolution of the two-electron wave packet. This delay can also be related to the energy derivative of the phase of the complex double-photoionization (DPI) amplitude which we evaluate by using the convergent close-coupling method. Our observations indicate that future attosecond time delay measurements on DPI of He can provide information on the absolute quantum phase and elucidate various mechanisms of this strongly correlated ionization process. (fast track communication)

  7. Methods of Analysis of Electronic Money in Banks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melnychenko Oleksandr V.

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The article identifies methods of analysis of electronic money, formalises its instruments and offers an integral indicator, which should be calculated by issuing banks and those banks, which carry out operations with electronic money, issued by other banks. Calculation of the integral indicator would allow complex assessment of activity of the studied bank with electronic money and would allow comparison of parameters of different banks by the aggregate of indicators for the study of the electronic money market, its level of development, etc. The article presents methods which envisage economic analysis of electronic money in banks by the following directions: solvency and liquidity, efficiency of electronic money issue, business activity of the bank and social responsibility. Moreover, the proposed indicators by each of the directions are offered to be taken into account when building integral indicators, with the help of which banks are studied: business activity, profitability, solvency, liquidity and so on.

  8. Risk analysis of industrial plants operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, Philippe

    1989-12-01

    This study examines the possibilities of systematic technology risk analysis in view of territorial management (city, urban community, region), including chronic and accidental risks. The objective was to relate this evaluation with those done for permanent water and air pollution. Risk management for pollution are done for a long time. A number of studies were done in urban communities and regions both for air and water pollution. The second objective is related to management of industrial risks: nuclear, petrochemical, transport of hazardous material, pipelines, etc. At the beginning, three possibilities of effects are taken into account: human health, economic aspect and water, and possibilities of evaluation are identified. Elements of risk identification are presented for quantification of results [fr

  9. Risk analysis of alternative energy sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kazmer, D.R.

    1982-01-01

    The author explores two points raised by Miller Spangler in a January 1981 issue: public perception of risks involving nuclear power plants relative to those of conventional plants and criteria for evaluating the way risk analyses are made. On the first point, he concludes that translating public attitudes into the experts' language of probability and risk could provide better information and understanding of both the attitudes and the risks. Viewing risk analysis methodologies as filters which help to test historical change, he suggests that the lack of information favors a lay jury approach for energy decisions. Spangler responds that Congress is an example of lay decision making, but that a lay jury, given public disinterest and polarization, would probably not improve social justice on the nuclear issue. 5 references, 4 figures

  10. LANDSAFE: LANDING SITE RISK ANALYSIS SOFTWARE FRAMEWORK

    OpenAIRE

    Schmidt, Ralph; Bostelmann, Jonas; Cornet, Yves; Heipke, Christian; Philippe, Christian; Poncelet, Nadia; de Rosa, Diego; Vandeloise, Yannick

    2012-01-01

    The European Space Agency (ESA) is planning a Lunar Lander mission in the 2018 timeframe that will demonstrate precise soft landing at the polar regions of the Moon. To ensure a safe and successful landing a careful risk analysis has to be carried out. This is comprised of identifying favorable target areas and evaluating the surface conditions in these areas. Features like craters, boulders, steep slopes, rough surfaces and shadow areas have to be identified in order to assess the risk assoc...

  11. Impact Analysis for Risks in Informatics Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Baicu, Floarea; Baches, Maria Alexandra

    2013-01-01

    In this paper are presented methods of impact analysis on informatics system security accidents, qualitative and quantitative methods, starting with risk and informational system security definitions. It is presented the relationship between the risks of exploiting vulnerabilities of security system, security level of these informatics systems, probability of exploiting the weak points subject to financial losses of a company, respectively impact of a security accident on the company. Herewit...

  12. Silicon radiation detector analysis using back electron beam induced current

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guye, R.

    1987-01-01

    A new technique for the observation and analysis of defects in silicon radiation detectors is described. This method uses an electron beam from a scanning electron microscope (SEM) impinging on the rear side of the p + n junction of the silicon detector, which itself is active and detects the electron beam induced current (EBIC). It is shown that this current is a sensitive probe of localized trapping centers, either at the junction surface or somewhere in the volume of the silicon crystal. (orig.)

  13. Identifying primary care patients at risk for future diabetes and cardiovascular disease using electronic health records

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shrader Peter

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Prevention of diabetes and coronary heart disease (CHD is possible but identification of at-risk patients for targeting interventions is a challenge in primary care. Methods We analyzed electronic health record (EHR data for 122,715 patients from 12 primary care practices. We defined patients with risk factor clustering using metabolic syndrome (MetS characteristics defined by NCEP-ATPIII criteria; if missing, we used surrogate characteristics, and validated this approach by directly measuring risk factors in a subset of 154 patients. For subjects with at least 3 of 5 MetS criteria measured at baseline (2003-2004, we defined 3 categories: No MetS (0 criteria; At-risk-for MetS (1-2 criteria; and MetS (≥ 3 criteria. We examined new diabetes and CHD incidence, and resource utilization over the subsequent 3-year period (2005-2007 using age-sex-adjusted regression models to compare outcomes by MetS category. Results After excluding patients with diabetes/CHD at baseline, 78,293 patients were eligible for analysis. EHR-defined MetS had 73% sensitivity and 91% specificity for directly measured MetS. Diabetes incidence was 1.4% in No MetS; 4.0% in At-risk-for MetS; and 11.0% in MetS (p MetS vs No MetS = 6.86 [6.06-7.76]; CHD incidence was 3.2%, 5.3%, and 6.4% respectively (p Conclusion Risk factor clustering in EHR data identifies primary care patients at increased risk for new diabetes, CHD and higher resource utilization.

  14. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  15. Electron microprobe analysis of tantalum--nitride thin films

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stoltz, D.L.; Starkey, J.P.

    1979-06-01

    Quantitative chemical analysis of 500- and 2000-angstrom tantalum--nitride films on glass substrates has been accomplished using an electron microprobe x-ray analyzer. In order to achieve this analysis, modifications to the microprobe were necessary. A description of the calibration procedure, the method of analysis, and the quantitative results are discussed

  16. New algorithm for risk analysis in radiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Torres, Antonio; Montes de Oca, Joe

    2015-01-01

    Risk analyses applied to radiotherapy treatments have become an undeniable necessity, considering the dangers generated by the combination of using powerful radiation fields on patients and the occurrence of human errors and equipment failures during these treatments. The technique par excellence to execute these analyses has been the risk matrix. This paper presents the development of a new algorithm to execute the task with wide graphic and analytic potentialities, thus transforming it into a very useful option for risk monitoring and the optimization of quality assurance. The system SECURE- MR, which is the basic software of this algorithm, has been successfully used in risk analysis regarding different kinds of radiotherapies. Compared to previous methods, It offers new possibilities of analysis considering risk controlling factors as the robustness of reducers of initiators frequency and its consequences. Their analytic capacities and graphs allow novel developments to classify risk contributing factors, to represent information processes as well as accidental sequences. The paper shows the application of the proposed system to a generic process of radiotherapy treatment using a lineal accelerator. (author)

  17. The watchdog role of risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reijen, G. van; Vinck, W.

    1983-01-01

    The reason why the risks of large-scale technology attract more attention lies in the fact that accidents would have more disastrous results and in the fact that it is probably more attractive to study the risks of some large projects than to do the same for a greater number of smaller projects. Within this presentation there will be some opening remarks on the Role of the Commission of the European Community with regard to accident prevention. The development of the concept of quantitative risks is dealt with. This development leads to a combinded of deterministic and probabilistic methods. The presentation concludes with some critical remarks on quantitative risk analysis and its use. (orig./HP) [de

  18. Implementing the Bayesian paradigm in risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aven, T.; Kvaloey, J.T.

    2002-01-01

    The Bayesian paradigm comprises a unified and consistent framework for analyzing and expressing risk. Yet, we see rather few examples of applications where the full Bayesian setting has been adopted with specifications of priors of unknown parameters. In this paper, we discuss some of the practical challenges of implementing Bayesian thinking and methods in risk analysis, emphasizing the introduction of probability models and parameters and associated uncertainty assessments. We conclude that there is a need for a pragmatic view in order to 'successfully' apply the Bayesian approach, such that we can do the assignments of some of the probabilities without adopting the somewhat sophisticated procedure of specifying prior distributions of parameters. A simple risk analysis example is presented to illustrate ideas

  19. Game Theoretic Risk Analysis of Security Threats

    CERN Document Server

    Bier, Vicki M

    2008-01-01

    Introduces reliability and risk analysis in the face of threats by intelligent agents. This book covers applications to networks, including problems in both telecommunications and transportation. It provides a set of tools for applying game theory TO reliability problems in the presence of intentional, intelligent threats

  20. Economic impact assessment in pest risk analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Soliman, T.A.A.; Mourits, M.C.M.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.; Werf, van der W.

    2010-01-01

    According to international treaties, phytosanitary measures against introduction and spread of invasive plant pests must be justified by a science-based pest risk analysis (PRA). Part of the PRA consists of an assessment of potential economic consequences. This paper evaluates the main available

  1. Scanning transmission electron microscopy imaging and analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Pennycook, Stephen J

    2011-01-01

    Provides the first comprehensive treatment of the physics and applications of this mainstream technique for imaging and analysis at the atomic level Presents applications of STEM in condensed matter physics, materials science, catalysis, and nanoscience Suitable for graduate students learning microscopy, researchers wishing to utilize STEM, as well as for specialists in other areas of microscopy Edited and written by leading researchers and practitioners

  2. Role of scanning electron microscope )SEM) in metal failure analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shaiful Rizam Shamsudin; Hafizal Yazid; Mohd Harun; Siti Selina Abd Hamid; Nadira Kamarudin; Zaiton Selamat; Mohd Shariff Sattar; Muhamad Jalil

    2005-01-01

    Scanning electron microscope (SEM) is a scientific instrument that uses a beam of highly energetic electrons to examine the surface and phase distribution of specimens on a micro scale through the live imaging of secondary electrons (SE) and back-scattered electrons (BSE) images. One of the main activities of SEM Laboratory at MINT is for failure analysis on metal part and components. The capability of SEM is excellent for determining the root cause of metal failures such as ductility or brittleness, stress corrosion, fatigue and other types of failures. Most of our customers that request for failure analysis are from local petrochemical plants, manufacturers of automotive components, pipeline maintenance personnel and engineers who involved in the development of metal parts and component. This paper intends to discuss some of the technical concepts in failure analysis associated with SEM. (Author)

  3. Infective endocarditis and risk of death after cardiac implantable electronic device implantation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Özcan, Cengiz; Raunsø, Jakob; Lamberts, Morten

    2017-01-01

    AIMS: To determine the incidence, risk factors, and mortality of infective endocarditis (IE) following implantation of a first-time, permanent, cardiac implantable electronic device (CIED). METHODS AND RESULTS: From Danish nationwide administrative registers (beginning in 1996), we identified all...

  4. Supplemental Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment - Hydrotreater

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lowry, Peter P. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wagner, Katie A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-04-01

    A supplemental hazard analysis was conducted and quantitative risk assessment performed in response to an independent review comment received by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) from the U.S. Department of Energy Pacific Northwest Field Office (PNSO) against the Hydrotreater/Distillation Column Hazard Analysis Report issued in April 2013. The supplemental analysis used the hazardous conditions documented by the previous April 2013 report as a basis. The conditions were screened and grouped for the purpose of identifying whether additional prudent, practical hazard controls could be identified, using a quantitative risk evaluation to assess the adequacy of the controls and establish a lower level of concern for the likelihood of potential serious accidents. Calculations were performed to support conclusions where necessary.

  5. Multivariate survival analysis and competing risks

    CERN Document Server

    Crowder, Martin J

    2012-01-01

    Multivariate Survival Analysis and Competing Risks introduces univariate survival analysis and extends it to the multivariate case. It covers competing risks and counting processes and provides many real-world examples, exercises, and R code. The text discusses survival data, survival distributions, frailty models, parametric methods, multivariate data and distributions, copulas, continuous failure, parametric likelihood inference, and non- and semi-parametric methods. There are many books covering survival analysis, but very few that cover the multivariate case in any depth. Written for a graduate-level audience in statistics/biostatistics, this book includes practical exercises and R code for the examples. The author is renowned for his clear writing style, and this book continues that trend. It is an excellent reference for graduate students and researchers looking for grounding in this burgeoning field of research.

  6. Identification and Progression of Heart Disease Risk Factors in Diabetic Patients from Longitudinal Electronic Health Records

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jitendra Jonnagaddala

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Heart disease is the leading cause of death worldwide. Therefore, assessing the risk of its occurrence is a crucial step in predicting serious cardiac events. Identifying heart disease risk factors and tracking their progression is a preliminary step in heart disease risk assessment. A large number of studies have reported the use of risk factor data collected prospectively. Electronic health record systems are a great resource of the required risk factor data. Unfortunately, most of the valuable information on risk factor data is buried in the form of unstructured clinical notes in electronic health records. In this study, we present an information extraction system to extract related information on heart disease risk factors from unstructured clinical notes using a hybrid approach. The hybrid approach employs both machine learning and rule-based clinical text mining techniques. The developed system achieved an overall microaveraged F-score of 0.8302.

  7. Risk and safety analysis of nuclear systems

    CERN Document Server

    Lee, John C

    2011-01-01

    The book has been developed in conjunction with NERS 462, a course offered every year to seniors and graduate students in the University of Michigan NERS program. The first half of the book covers the principles of risk analysis, the techniques used to develop and update a reliability data base, the reliability of multi-component systems, Markov methods used to analyze the unavailability of systems with repairs, fault trees and event trees used in probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs), and failure modes of systems. All of this material is general enough that it could be used in non-nuclear a

  8. Terminological Ontologies for Risk and Vulnerability Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Bodil Nistrup; Erdman Thomsen, Hanne

    2014-01-01

    Risk and vulnerability analyses are an important preliminary stage in civil contingency planning. The Danish Emergency Management Agency has developed a generic model and a set of tools that may be used in the preparedness planning, i.e. for identifying and describing society’s critical functions......, for formulating threat scenarios and for assessing consequences. Terminological ontologies, which are systems of domain specific concepts comprising concept relations and characteristics, are useful, both when describing the central concepts of risk and vulnerability analysis (meta concepts), and for further...

  9. Teaching Case: Analysis of an Electronic Voting System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Nik; Toohey, Danny

    2014-01-01

    This teaching case discusses the analysis of an electronic voting system. The development of the case was motivated by research into information security and management, but as it includes procedural aspects, organizational structure and personnel, it is a suitable basis for all aspects of systems analysis, planning and design tasks. The material…

  10. Economic analysis of evolution/devolution of electronic devices functionality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Esipov A. S.

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available the researcher of this article has presented the analysis of evolution/devolution of electronic devices functionality as well as the analysis of the current situation at the computers and mobile devices market, and some thoughts about new products. Is a newer device better? Are corporations producing really new devices or they are only the improvement of old ones.

  11. Risk analysis for earth dam overtopping

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mo Chongxun

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a model of overtopping risk under the joint effects of floods and wind waves, which is based on risk analysis theory and takes into account the uncertainties of floods, wind waves, reservoir capacity and discharge capacity of the spillway, is proposed and applied to the Chengbihe Reservoir in Baise City in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. The simulated results indicate that the flood control limiting level can be raised by 0.40 m under the condition that the reservoir overtopping risk is controlled within a mean variance of 5×10−6. As a result, the reservoir storage will increase to 16 million m3 and electrical energy generation and other functions of the reservoir will also increase greatly.

  12. Investment appraisal using quantitative risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johansson, Henrik

    2002-07-01

    Investment appraisal concerned with investments in fire safety systems is discussed. Particular attention is directed at evaluating, in terms of the Bayesian decision theory, the risk reduction that investment in a fire safety system involves. It is shown how the monetary value of the change from a building design without any specific fire protection system to one including such a system can be estimated by use of quantitative risk analysis, the results of which are expressed in terms of a Risk-adjusted net present value. This represents the intrinsic monetary value of investing in the fire safety system. The method suggested is exemplified by a case study performed in an Avesta Sheffield factory.

  13. Quantitative Risk Analysis: Method And Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anass BAYAGA

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Recent and past studies (King III report, 2009: 73-75; Stoney 2007;Committee of Sponsoring Organisation-COSO, 2004, Bartell, 2003; Liebenberg and Hoyt, 2003; Reason, 2000; Markowitz 1957 lament that although, the introduction of quantifying risk to enhance degree of objectivity in finance for instance was quite parallel to its development in the manufacturing industry, it is not the same in Higher Education Institution (HEI. In this regard, the objective of the paper was to demonstrate the methods and process of Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA through likelihood of occurrence of risk (phase I. This paper serves as first of a two-phased study, which sampled hundred (100 risk analysts in a University in the greater Eastern Cape Province of South Africa.The analysis of likelihood of occurrence of risk by logistic regression and percentages were conducted to investigate whether there were a significant difference or not between groups (analyst in respect of QRA.The Hosmer and Lemeshow test was non-significant with a chi-square(X2 =8.181; p = 0.300, which indicated that there was a good model fit, since the data did not significantly deviate from the model. The study concluded that to derive an overall likelihood rating that indicated the probability that a potential risk may be exercised within the construct of an associated threat environment, the following governing factors must be considered: (1 threat source motivation and capability (2 nature of the vulnerability (3 existence and effectiveness of current controls (methods and process.

  14. Transcriptomic and genetic analysis of direct interspecies electron transfer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shrestha, Pravin Malla; Rotaru, Amelia-Elena; Summers, Zarath M

    2013-01-01

    The possibility that metatranscriptomic analysis could distinguish between direct interspecies electron transfer (DIET) and H2 interspecies transfer (HIT) in anaerobic communities was investigated by comparing gene transcript abundance in cocultures in which Geobacter sulfurreducens....... These results demonstrate that there are unique gene expression patterns that distinguish DIET from HIT and suggest that metatranscriptomics may be a promising route to investigate interspecies electron transfer pathways in more-complex environments....

  15. Risk analysis as a decision tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yadigaroglu, G.; Chakraborty, S.

    1985-01-01

    From 1983 - 1985 a lecture series entitled ''Risk-benefit analysis'' was held at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH), Zurich, in cooperation with the Central Department for the Safety of Nuclear Installations of the Swiss Federal Agency of Energy Economy. In that setting the value of risk-oriented evaluation models as a decision tool in safety questions was discussed on a broad basis. Experts of international reputation from the Federal Republic of Germany, France, Canada, the United States and Switzerland have contributed to report in this joint volume on the uses of such models. Following an introductory synopsis on risk analysis and risk assessment the book deals with practical examples in the fields of medicine, nuclear power, chemistry, transport and civil engineering. Particular attention is paid to the dialogue between analysts and decision makers taking into account the economic-technical aspects and social values. The recent chemical disaster in the Indian city of Bhopal again signals the necessity of such analyses. All the lectures were recorded individually. (orig./HP) [de

  16. Quantitative risk analysis preoperational of gas pipeline

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Manfredi, Carlos; Bispo, Gustavo G.; Esteves, Alvaro [Gie S.A., Buenos Aires (Argentina)

    2009-07-01

    The purpose of this analysis is to predict how it can be affected the individual risk and the public's general security due to the operation of a gas pipeline. In case that the single or social risks are considered intolerable, compared with the international standards, to be recommended measures of mitigation of the risk associated to the operation until levels that can be considered compatible with the best practices in the industry. The quantitative risk analysis calculates the probability of occurrence of an event based on the frequency of occurrence of the same one and it requires a complex mathematical treatment. The present work has as objective to develop a calculation methodology based on the previously mentioned publication. This calculation methodology is centered in defining the frequencies of occurrence of events, according to representative database of each case in study. Besides, it settles down the consequences particularly according to the considerations of each area and the different possibilities of interferences with the gas pipeline in study. For each one of the interferences a typical curve of ignition probabilities is developed in function from the distance to the pipe. (author)

  17. Cardiac implantable electronic device and associated risk of infective endocarditis in patients undergoing aortic valve replacement

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Østergaard, Lauge; Valeur, Nana; Bundgaard, Henning

    2017-01-01

    Aims: Patients undergoing aortic valve replacement (AVR) are at increased risk of infective endocarditis (IE) as are patients with a cardiac implantable electronic device (CIED). However, few data exist on the IE risk after AVR surgery in patients with a CIED. Methods and results: Using the Danish...

  18. Risk analysis in oil spill response planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chernoplekov, A.N.; Alexandrov, A.A.

    2005-01-01

    Tiered response is a basic approach to emergency plans, including oil spill response (OSR). This paper delineates a huge set of accidental scenarios within a certain tier of response generated by a computer during risk assessment. Parameters such as the amount of oil spilled, duration of discharge and types of losses should be provided in OSR scenarios. Examples of applications include offshore installations, sub sea or onshore pipelines, and localized onshore facilities. The paper demonstrates how to use risk analysis results for delineating all likely spills into groups that need a specific tier response. The best world practices and Russian regulatory approaches were outlined and compared. Corresponding algorithms were developed and their application in pipelines was presented. The algorithm combines expert's skills and spill trajectory modeling with the net environmental benefit analysis principle into the incident specific emergency response planning. 9 refs., 13 tabs., 2 figs

  19. Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russell, K.D.; McKay, M.K.; Sattison, M.B.; Skinner, N.L.; Wood, S.T.; Rasmuson, D.M.

    1992-01-01

    The Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) is a state-of-the-art, microcomputer-based probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model development and analysis tool to address key nuclear plant safety issues. IRRAS is an integrated software tool that gives the user the ability to create and analyze fault trees and accident sequences using a microcomputer. This program provides functions that range from graphical fault tree construction to cut set generation and quantification. Version 1.0 of the IRRAS program was released in February of 1987. Since that time, many user comments and enhancements have been incorporated into the program providing a much more powerful and user-friendly system. This version has been designated IRRAS 4.0 and is the subject of this Reference Manual. Version 4.0 of IRRAS provides the same capabilities as Version 1.0 and adds a relational data base facility for managing the data, improved functionality, and improved algorithm performance

  20. Zero risk fuel fabrication: a systems analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1979-01-01

    Zero risk is a concept used to ensure that system requirements are developed through a systems approach such that the choice(s) among alternatives represents the balanced viewpoints of performance, achievability and risk. Requirements to ensure characteristics such as stringent accountability, low personnel exposure and etc. are needed to guide the development of component and subsystems for future LMFBR fuel supply systems. To establish a consistent and objective set of requirements, RF and M-TMC has initiated a systems requirements analysis activity. This activity pivots on judgement and experience provided by a Task Force representing industrial companies engaged in fuel fabrication in licensed facilities. The Task Force members are listed in Appendix A. Input developed by this group is presented as a starting point for the systems requirements analysis

  1. Risk Analysis of Accounting Information System Infrastructure

    OpenAIRE

    MIHALACHE, Arsenie-Samoil

    2011-01-01

    National economy and security are fully dependent on information technology and infrastructure. At the core of the information infrastructure society relies on, we have the Internet, a system designed initially as a scientists’ forum for unclassified research. The use of communication networks and systems may lead to hazardous situations that generate undesirable effects such as communication systems breakdown, loss of data or taking the wrong decisions. The paper studies the risk analysis of...

  2. Risk analysis of external radiation therapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arvidsson, Marcus

    2011-09-01

    External radiation therapy is carried out via a complex treatment process in which many different groups of staff work together. Much of the work is dependent on and in collaboration with advanced technical equipment. The purpose of the research task has been to identify a process for external radiation therapy and to identify, test and analyze a suitable method for performing risk analysis of external radiation therapy

  3. Risk and value analysis of SETI

    Science.gov (United States)

    Billingham, J.

    1990-01-01

    This paper attempts to apply a traditional risk and value analysis to the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence--SETI. In view of the difficulties of assessing the probability of success, a comparison is made between SETI and a previous search for extraterrestrial life, the biological component of Project Viking. Our application of simple Utility Theory, given some reasonable assumptions, suggests that SETI is at least as worthwhile as the biological experiment on Viking.

  4. Applied decision analysis and risk evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferse, W.; Kruber, S.

    1995-01-01

    During 1994 the workgroup 'Applied Decision Analysis and Risk Evaluation; continued the work on the knowledge based decision support system XUMA-GEFA for the evaluation of the hazard potential of contaminated sites. Additionally a new research direction was started which aims at the support of a later stage of the treatment of contaminated sites: The clean-up decision. For the support of decisions arising at this stage, the methods of decision analysis will be used. Computational aids for evaluation and decision support were implemented and a case study at a waste disposal site in Saxony which turns out to be a danger for the surrounding groundwater ressource was initiated. (orig.)

  5. LANDSAFE: LANDING SITE RISK ANALYSIS SOFTWARE FRAMEWORK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Schmidt

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The European Space Agency (ESA is planning a Lunar Lander mission in the 2018 timeframe that will demonstrate precise soft landing at the polar regions of the Moon. To ensure a safe and successful landing a careful risk analysis has to be carried out. This is comprised of identifying favorable target areas and evaluating the surface conditions in these areas. Features like craters, boulders, steep slopes, rough surfaces and shadow areas have to be identified in order to assess the risk associated to a landing site in terms of a successful touchdown and subsequent surface operation of the lander. In addition, global illumination conditions at the landing site have to be simulated and analyzed. The Landing Site Risk Analysis software framework (LandSAfe is a system for the analysis, selection and certification of safe landing sites on the lunar surface. LandSAfe generates several data products including high resolution digital terrain models (DTMs, hazard maps, illumination maps, temperature maps and surface reflectance maps which assist the user in evaluating potential landing site candidates. This paper presents the LandSAfe system and describes the methods and products of the different modules. For one candidate landing site on the rim of Shackleton crater at the south pole of the Moon a high resolution DTM is showcased.

  6. Analysis of operating model of electronic invoice colombian Colombian electronic billing analysis of the operational model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sérgio Roberto da Silva

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Colombia has been one of the first countries to introduce electronic billing process on a voluntary basis, from a traditional to a digital version. In this context, the article analyzes the electronic billing process implemented in Colombia and the advantages. Methodological research is applied, qualitative, descriptive and documentary; where the regulatory framework and the conceptualization of the model is identified; the process of adoption of electronic billing is analyzed, and finally the advantages and disadvantages of its implementation is analyzed. The findings indicate that the model applied in Colombia to issue an electronic billing in sending and receiving process, is not complex, but it requires a small adequate infrastructure and trained personnel to reach all sectors, especially the micro and business which is the largest business network in the country.

  7. The Risk of Electronic Audit and its Impact on The Quality Audit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zainab Jabbar Yousif

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available The auditing profession faces a challenge referred to as information technology ,Information technology has set the profession of auditing in constant challenge because it has made the world an open - limited system through communication technology . The importance of this research stems from the need to identify the nature of the  risks of electronic auditing  after turned  from manual checking to electronic auditing due to developments in technologies  in all sectors.  The risk of electronic auditing  the risk of information technology infrastructure and the risks of applications and other  related to communication processes, several conclusions have been reached, implementation of programs with goods specifications in the electronic auditing  process will lead to safety of work and  reduce the risk of electronic auditing . The research highlights these  risks and their impact on the quality of auditing .                                  

  8. Safety analysis and risk assessment handbook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, V.L.; Colwell, R.G.; Dickey, R.L.

    1997-01-01

    This Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) provides guidance to the safety analyst at the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site (RFETS) in the preparation of safety analyses and risk assessments. Although the older guidance (the Rocky Flats Risk Assessment Guide) continues to be used for updating the Final Safety Analysis Reports developed in the mid-1980s, this new guidance is used with all new authorization basis documents. With the mission change at RFETS came the need to establish new authorization basis documents for its facilities, whose functions had changed. The methodology and databases for performing the evaluations that support the new authorization basis documents had to be standardized, to avoid the use of different approaches and/or databases for similar accidents in different facilities. This handbook presents this new standardized approach. The handbook begins with a discussion of the requirements of the different types of authorization basis documents and how to choose the one appropriate for the facility to be evaluated. It then walks the analyst through the process of identifying all the potential hazards in the facility, classifying them, and choosing the ones that need to be analyzed further. It then discusses the methods for evaluating accident initiation and progression and covers the basic steps in a safety analysis, including consequence and frequency binning and risk ranking. The handbook lays out standardized approaches for determining the source terms of the various accidents (including airborne release fractions, leakpath factors, etc.), the atmospheric dispersion factors appropriate for Rocky Flats, and the methods for radiological and chemical consequence assessments. The radiological assessments use a radiological open-quotes templateclose quotes, a spreadsheet that incorporates the standard values of parameters, whereas the chemical assessments use the standard codes ARCHIE and ALOHA

  9. The Structural Characterisation of Risk in the R&D Process of Functional Raw Materials for Electronic Devices

    OpenAIRE

    Chikamori, Yoji; Nasu, Seigo

    2017-01-01

    The electronic materials and electronics device industries remain important to Japan in spite of the general decline of the Japanese electronics industry. There is risk and uncertainty when developing functional materials in the electronics industry. However, studies examining the uncertainty and risk variables in the development of functional materials are scarce. This study examines incremental research and development (R&D) developed for raw functional materials for electronics. Our analys...

  10. The regulation of peculiarities of electronic contracting: comparative analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Наталія Юліївна Філатова

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Contract formation by electronic means nowadays is a widespread phenomenon. Nevertheless electronic contracting has been thoroughly explored by scholars all over the world and regulated both internationally and domestically, there still remain some issues which need to be carefully analyzed. In our view, the most essential question raised by electronic contracting is whether there is a need to amend substantial contract law provisions with regard to peculiarities of contracts concluded by electronic means. Seeking the answer to this question several approaches have been formulated, but none of them seems to be completely appropriate. In this paper the answer is also attempted to be found. For this purpose a comparative analysis of doctrine, legislation and judicial practice of certain states is performed. Particularly, offer, acceptance and moment of electronic contract formation are explored. On the basis of this research the following conclusion is done: amendments to substantial contract law provisions are not always necessary to improve the regulation of electronic contracting. Nevertheless the provisions of law should be applied correctly to the disputes arising from electronic contract formation taking into account the peculiarities of such contracts.

  11. Risk analysis of nuclear safeguards regulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al-Ayat, R.A.; Altman, W.D.; Judd, B.R.

    1982-06-01

    The Aggregated Systems Model (ASM), a probabilisitic risk analysis tool for nuclear safeguards, was applied to determine benefits and costs of proposed amendments to NRC regulations governing nuclear material control and accounting systems. The objective of the amendments was to improve the ability to detect insiders attempting to steal large quantities of special nuclear material (SNM). Insider threats range from likely events with minor consequences to unlikely events with catastrophic consequences. Moreover, establishing safeguards regulations is complicated by uncertainties in threats, safeguards performance, and consequences, and by the subjective judgments and difficult trade-offs between risks and safeguards costs. The ASM systematically incorporates these factors in a comprehensive, analytical framework. The ASM was used to evaluate the effectiveness of current safeguards and to quantify the risk of SNM theft. Various modifications designed to meet the objectives of the proposed amendments to reduce that risk were analyzed. Safeguards effectiveness was judged in terms of the probability of detecting and preventing theft, the expected time to detection, and the expected quantity of SNM diverted in a year. Data were gathered in tours and interviews at NRC-licensed facilities. The assessment at each facility was begun by carefully selecting scenarios representing the range of potential insider threats. A team of analysts and facility managers assigned probabilities for detection and prevention events in each scenario. Using the ASM we computed the measures of system effectiveness and identified cost-effective safeguards modifications that met the objectives of the proposed amendments

  12. AGROFOREST SYSTEM INVESTMENT ANALYSIS UNDER RISK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luiz Moreira Coelho Junior

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Agroforestry System is the ecological and economical interaction of the use of the land, with the combination ofagriculture, livestock and forest production, in temporary sequence and in a simultaneous way. The studies of investments in projectsassume the existence of risks and uncertainties. An alternative to reduce the risk in the forest investment is the association with theagricultural. This work analyzed the situations of risk of a system agroflorestal. Monte Carlo s method comes from the theory ofsimulations and stands out as a powerful and useful tool to provide a distribution of probabilities for the analysis of decision. A totalof 10,000 interactions of the Net Present Value (VPL, of Internal Rate of Return (TIR and of the Equivalent Periodic Benefit (BPEwere made in order to establish the probability distribution. The results presented 78.65% of chance of VPL being US$ 1,410.00;77.56% of chance of TIR being 36.36%, and; 75.39% of chance of BPE being US$ 309.70; the agroforestry system presented lowinvestment risk; and the livestock is the main product of the agrossilvopastoril system, followed by charcoal.

  13. Optical polarimeter based on Fourier analysis and electronic control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vilardy, J; Salas, V.; Torres, C.

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we show the design and implementation of an optical polarimeter using electronic control and the Fourier analysis. The polarimeter prototype will be used as a main tool for the students of the Universidad Popular del Cesar that belong to the following university programs: Electronics engineering (optoelectronics area), Math and Physics degree and the Master in Physics Sciences, in order to learning the theory and experimental aspects of the state of optical polarization via the Stokes vector measurement. Using the electronic polarimeter proposed in this paper, the students will be able to observe (in an optical bench) and understand the different interactions of the states of optical polarization when the optical waves pass through to the polarizers and retarder waves plates. The electronic polarimeter has a software that captures the optical intensity measurement and evaluates the Stokes vector. (Author)

  14. Approach to uncertainty in risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rish, W.R.

    1988-08-01

    In the Fall of 1985 EPA's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) initiated a project to develop a formal approach to dealing with uncertainties encountered when estimating and evaluating risks to human health and the environment. Based on a literature review of modeling uncertainty, interviews with ORP technical and management staff, and input from experts on uncertainty analysis, a comprehensive approach was developed. This approach recognizes by design the constraints on budget, time, manpower, expertise, and availability of information often encountered in ''real world'' modeling. It is based on the observation that in practice risk modeling is usually done to support a decision process. As such, the approach focuses on how to frame a given risk modeling problem, how to use that framing to select an appropriate mixture of uncertainty analyses techniques, and how to integrate the techniques into an uncertainty assessment that effectively communicates important information and insight to decision-makers. The approach is presented in this report. Practical guidance on characterizing and analyzing uncertainties about model form and quantities and on effectively communicating uncertainty analysis results is included. Examples from actual applications are presented.

  15. Approach to uncertainty in risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rish, W.R.

    1988-08-01

    In the Fall of 1985 EPA's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) initiated a project to develop a formal approach to dealing with uncertainties encountered when estimating and evaluating risks to human health and the environment. Based on a literature review of modeling uncertainty, interviews with ORP technical and management staff, and input from experts on uncertainty analysis, a comprehensive approach was developed. This approach recognizes by design the constraints on budget, time, manpower, expertise, and availability of information often encountered in ''real world'' modeling. It is based on the observation that in practice risk modeling is usually done to support a decision process. As such, the approach focuses on how to frame a given risk modeling problem, how to use that framing to select an appropriate mixture of uncertainty analyses techniques, and how to integrate the techniques into an uncertainty assessment that effectively communicates important information and insight to decision-makers. The approach is presented in this report. Practical guidance on characterizing and analyzing uncertainties about model form and quantities and on effectively communicating uncertainty analysis results is included. Examples from actual applications are presented

  16. Cost-effectiveness of electronic training in domestic violence risk assessment: ODARA 101.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hilton, N Zoe; Ham, Elke

    2015-03-01

    The need for domestic violence training has increased with the development of evidence-based risk assessment tools, which must be scored correctly for valid application. Emerging research indicates that training in domestic violence risk assessment can increase scoring accuracy, but despite the increasing popularity of electronic training, it is not yet known whether it can be an effective method of risk assessment training. In the present study, 87 assessors from various professions had training in the Ontario Domestic Assault Risk Assessment either face-to-face or using an electronic training program. The two conditions were equally effective, as measured by performance on a post-training skill acquisition test. Completion rates were 100% for face-to-face and 86% for electronic training, an improvement over a previously evaluated manual-only condition. The estimated per-trainee cost of electronic training was one third that of face-to-face training and expected to decrease. More rigorous evaluations of electronic training for risk assessment are recommended. © The Author(s) 2014.

  17. System Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krantz, E.A.; Russell, K.D.; Stewart, H.D.; Van Siclen, V.S.

    1986-01-01

    Utilization of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) related information in the day-to-day operation of plant systems has, in the past, been impracticable due to the size of the computers needed to run PRA codes. This paper discusses a microcomputer-based database system which can greatly enhance the capability of operators or regulators to incorporate PRA methodologies into their routine decision making. This system is called the System Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) system. SARA was developed by EG and G Idaho, Inc. at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory to facilitate the study of frequency and consequence analyses of accident sequences from a large number of light water reactors (LWRs) in this country. This information is being amassed by several studies sponsored by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC). To meet the need of portability and accessibility, and to perform the variety of calculations necessary, it was felt that a microcomputer-based system would be most suitable

  18. Methodologies for risk analysis in slope instability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernabeu Garcia, M.; Diaz Torres, J. A.

    2014-01-01

    This paper is an approach to the different methodologies used in conducting landslide risk maps so that the reader can get a basic knowledge about how to proceed in its development. The landslide hazard maps are increasingly demanded by governments. This is because due to climate change, deforestation and the pressure exerted by the growth of urban centers, damage caused by natural phenomena is increasing each year, making this area of work a field of study with increasing importance. To explain the process of mapping a journey through each of the phases of which it is composed is made: from the study of the types of slope movements and the necessary management of geographic information systems (GIS) inventories and landslide susceptibility analysis, threat, vulnerability and risk. (Author)

  19. Model risk analysis for risk management and option pricing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kerkhof, F.L.J.

    2003-01-01

    Due to the growing complexity of products in financial markets, market participants rely more and more on quantitative models for trading and risk management decisions. This introduces a fairly new type of risk, namely, model risk. In the first part of this thesis we investigate the quantitative

  20. Nuclear risk analysis of the Ulysses mission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bartram, B.W.; Vaughan, F.R.; Englehart, D.R.W.

    1991-01-01

    The use of a radioisotope thermoelectric generator fueled with plutonium-238 dioxide on the Space Shuttle-launched Ulysses mission implies some level of risk due to potential accidents. This paper describes the method used to quantify risks in the Ulysses mission Final Safety Analysis Report prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy. The starting point for the analysis described herein is following input of source term probability distributions from the General Electric Company. A Monte Carlo technique is used to develop probability distributions of radiological consequences for a range of accident scenarios thoughout the mission. Factors affecting radiological consequences are identified, the probability distribution of the effect of each factor determined, and the functional relationship among all the factors established. The probability distributions of all the factor effects are then combined using a Monte Carlo technique. The results of the analysis are presented in terms of complementary cumulative distribution functions (CCDF) by mission sub-phase, phase, and the overall mission. The CCDFs show the total probability that consequences (calculated health effects) would be equal to or greater than a given value

  1. Beam lifetime measurement and analysis in Indus-2 electron ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    In this paper, the beam lifetime measurement and its theoretical analysis are presented using measured vacuum pressure and applied radio frequency (RF) cavity voltage in Indus-2 electron storage ring at 2 GeV beam energy. Experimental studies of the effect of RF cavity voltage and bunched beam filling pattern on beam ...

  2. The quantum mechanical analysis of the free electron laser

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dattoli, G.; Renieri, A.

    1985-01-01

    A quantum analysis of the Free Electron Laser is presented. The theory is developed both in single and longitudinal multimode regimes. Finally a self-consistent procedure to study the growth of the laser signal from the vacuum to the macroscopic level is presented

  3. Image formation and image analysis in electron microscopy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heel, M. van.

    1981-01-01

    This thesis covers various aspects of image formation and image analysis in electron microscopy. The imaging of relatively strong objects in partially coherent illumination, the coherence properties of thermionic emission sources and the detection of objects in quantum noise limited images are considered. IMAGIC, a fast, flexible and friendly image analysis software package is described. Intelligent averaging of molecular images is discussed. (C.F.)

  4. Risk management and analysis: risk assessment (qualitative and quantitative)

    OpenAIRE

    Valentin Mazareanu

    2007-01-01

    We use to define risk as the possibility of suffering a loss. Starting this, risk management is defined as a business process whose purpose is to ensure that the organization is protected against risks and their effects. In order to prioritize, to develop a response plan and after that to monitor the identified risks we need to asses them. But at this point a question is born: should I choose a qualitative approach or a quantitative one? This paper will make a short overview over the risk eva...

  5. A Bayesian network model for predicting type 2 diabetes risk based on electronic health records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Jiang; Liu, Yan; Zeng, Xu; Zhang, Wu; Mei, Zhen

    2017-07-01

    An extensive, in-depth study of diabetes risk factors (DBRF) is of crucial importance to prevent (or reduce) the chance of suffering from type 2 diabetes (T2D). Accumulation of electronic health records (EHRs) makes it possible to build nonlinear relationships between risk factors and diabetes. However, the current DBRF researches mainly focus on qualitative analyses, and the inconformity of physical examination items makes the risk factors likely to be lost, which drives us to study the novel machine learning approach for risk model development. In this paper, we use Bayesian networks (BNs) to analyze the relationship between physical examination information and T2D, and to quantify the link between risk factors and T2D. Furthermore, with the quantitative analyses of DBRF, we adopt EHR and propose a machine learning approach based on BNs to predict the risk of T2D. The experiments demonstrate that our approach can lead to better predictive performance than the classical risk model.

  6. RISK ANALYSIS APPLIED IN OIL EXPLORATION AND PRODUCTION

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ES Obe

    aDepartment of Civil Engineering, University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Enugu State, Nigeria. ... The analysis in this work is ... risk analysis, oil field, risk management, projects, investment opportunity. 1. .... own merit but since the company has limited.

  7. Analysis and risk management after Fukushima

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nelson, P. F.

    2011-11-01

    This article describes the impact in the nuclear industry after the only accidents with affectation to the public: the Three Mile Island and Chernobyl. and discusses what comes after Fukushima with regard to the Safety Probabilistic Analysis (Spa) and their use in the decisions taking. A reference to the standard ASME/ANS of Spa is made and the possible changes due to the learned lessons after the Fukushima accident. The main changes are described in the art state and the priorities of the Spa studies. These include the change in the mission time of the emergency systems, the necessity to model the alternating systems, the risk consideration of a site with multi-units, the importance of making a Spa level 3 and the Spa of external events. The Spa is the key tool of the discipline of risk management, but given the learned lessons, is more necessary in all the aspects of the operation and surveillance of a nuclear power plant. A strategy is presented to improve the response to a severe accident, that includes consider the risks of the specific nuclear power plant. (Author)

  8. Risk Analysis Approach to Rainwater Harvesting Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nadia Ursino

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Urban rainwater reuse preserves water resources and promotes sustainable development in rapidly growing urban areas. The efficiency of a large number of urban water reuse systems, operating under different climate and demand conditions, is evaluated here on the base of a new risk analysis approach. Results obtained by probability analysis (PA indicate that maximum efficiency in low demanding scenarios is above 0.5 and a threshold, distinguishing low from high demanding scenarios, indicates that in low demanding scenarios no significant improvement in performance may be attained by increasing the storage capacity of rainwater harvesting tanks. Threshold behaviour is displayed when tank storage capacity is designed to match both the average collected volume and the average reuse volume. The low demand limit cannot be achieved under climate and operating conditions characterized by a disproportion between harvesting and demand volume.

  9. Analysis of archaeological materials through Scanning electron microscopy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Camacho, A.; Tenorio C, D.; Elizalde, S.; Mandujano, C.; Cassiano, G.

    2005-01-01

    With the purpose to know the uses and the chemical composition of some cultural objects in the pre hispanic epoch this work presents several types of analysis for identifying them by means of the Scanning electron microscopy and its techniques as the Functional analysis of artifacts based on the 'tracks of use' analysis, also the X-ray spectroscopy and the X-ray dispersive energy (EDS) are mentioned, all of them allowing a major approach to the pre hispanic culture in Mexico. (Author)

  10. Probabilistic methods in fire-risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brandyberry, M.D.

    1989-01-01

    The first part of this work outlines a method for assessing the frequency of ignition of a consumer product in a building and shows how the method would be used in an example scenario utilizing upholstered furniture as the product and radiant auxiliary heating devices (electric heaters, wood stoves) as the ignition source. Deterministic thermal models of the heat-transport processes are coupled with parameter uncertainty analysis of the models and with a probabilistic analysis of the events involved in a typical scenario. This leads to a distribution for the frequency of ignition for the product. In second part, fire-risk analysis as currently used in nuclear plants is outlines along with a discussion of the relevant uncertainties. The use of the computer code COMPBRN is discussed for use in the fire-growth analysis along with the use of response-surface methodology to quantify uncertainties in the code's use. Generalized response surfaces are developed for temperature versus time for a cable tray, as well as a surface for the hot gas layer temperature and depth for a room of arbitrary geometry within a typical nuclear power plant compartment. These surfaces are then used to simulate the cable tray damage time in a compartment fire experiment

  11. Imaging hydrated microbial extracellular polymers: Comparative analysis by electron microscopy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dohnalkova, A.C.; Marshall, M. J.; Arey, B. W.; Williams, K. H.; Buck, E. C.; Fredrickson, J. K.

    2011-01-01

    Microbe-mineral and -metal interactions represent a major intersection between the biosphere and geosphere but require high-resolution imaging and analytical tools for investigating microscale associations. Electron microscopy has been used extensively for geomicrobial investigations and although used bona fide, the traditional methods of sample preparation do not preserve the native morphology of microbiological components, especially extracellular polymers. Herein, we present a direct comparative analysis of microbial interactions using conventional electron microscopy approaches of imaging at room temperature and a suite of cryogenic electron microscopy methods providing imaging in the close-to-natural hydrated state. In situ, we observed an irreversible transformation of the hydrated bacterial extracellular polymers during the traditional dehydration-based sample preparation that resulted in their collapse into filamentous structures. Dehydration-induced polymer collapse can lead to inaccurate spatial relationships and hence could subsequently affect conclusions regarding nature of interactions between microbial extracellular polymers and their environment.

  12. BRAND ANALYSIS OF LG ELECTRONICS: A CASE STUDY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Syed Fida Hussain Shah

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available LG Electronics is a Korean based global brand in the field of consumer electronics, home appliances and mobile communications. The critical analysis in identifying the steps taken by the LG Electronics in the light of the existing literature review helps us to correlate these steps with the enhanced brand image, brand value and brand positioning. Information is collected from various reports i.e., LG Annual reports; International Magazines from the world of Business and Tech-nology; research literatures and other reputable sources. Innovation & design and constant obsolescence of ICT and IT Products (i.e., mobiles in particular, LG have to stick on R&D, design strategies and innovation and creativity for competing in the global market.

  13. Risk as analysis and risk as feelings: some thoughts about affect, reason, risk, and rationality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slovic, Paul; Finucane, Melissa L; Peters, Ellen; MacGregor, Donald G

    2004-04-01

    Modern theories in cognitive psychology and neuroscience indicate that there are two fundamental ways in which human beings comprehend risk. The "analytic system" uses algorithms and normative rules, such as probability calculus, formal logic, and risk assessment. It is relatively slow, effortful, and requires conscious control. The "experiential system" is intuitive, fast, mostly automatic, and not very accessible to conscious awareness. The experiential system enabled human beings to survive during their long period of evolution and remains today the most natural and most common way to respond to risk. It relies on images and associations, linked by experience to emotion and affect (a feeling that something is good or bad). This system represents risk as a feeling that tells us whether it is safe to walk down this dark street or drink this strange-smelling water. Proponents of formal risk analysis tend to view affective responses to risk as irrational. Current wisdom disputes this view. The rational and the experiential systems operate in parallel and each seems to depend on the other for guidance. Studies have demonstrated that analytic reasoning cannot be effective unless it is guided by emotion and affect. Rational decision making requires proper integration of both modes of thought. Both systems have their advantages, biases, and limitations. Now that we are beginning to understand the complex interplay between emotion and reason that is essential to rational behavior, the challenge before us is to think creatively about what this means for managing risk. On the one hand, how do we apply reason to temper the strong emotions engendered by some risk events? On the other hand, how do we infuse needed "doses of feeling" into circumstances where lack of experience may otherwise leave us too "coldly rational"? This article addresses these important questions.

  14. The readmission risk flag: using the electronic health record to automatically identify patients at risk for 30-day readmission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baillie, Charles A; VanZandbergen, Christine; Tait, Gordon; Hanish, Asaf; Leas, Brian; French, Benjamin; Hanson, C William; Behta, Maryam; Umscheid, Craig A

    2013-12-01

    Identification of patients at high risk for readmission is a crucial step toward improving care and reducing readmissions. The adoption of electronic health records (EHR) may prove important to strategies designed to risk stratify patients and introduce targeted interventions. To develop and implement an automated prediction model integrated into our health system's EHR that identifies on admission patients at high risk for readmission within 30 days of discharge. Retrospective and prospective cohort. Healthcare system consisting of 3 hospitals. All adult patients admitted from August 2009 to September 2012. An automated readmission risk flag integrated into the EHR. Thirty-day all-cause and 7-day unplanned healthcare system readmissions. Using retrospective data, a single risk factor, ≥ 2 inpatient admissions in the past 12 months, was found to have the best balance of sensitivity (40%), positive predictive value (31%), and proportion of patients flagged (18%), with a C statistic of 0.62. Sensitivity (39%), positive predictive value (30%), proportion of patients flagged (18%), and C statistic (0.61) during the 12-month period after implementation of the risk flag were similar. There was no evidence for an effect of the intervention on 30-day all-cause and 7-day unplanned readmission rates in the 12-month period after implementation. An automated prediction model was effectively integrated into an existing EHR and identified patients on admission who were at risk for readmission within 30 days of discharge. © 2013 Society of Hospital Medicine.

  15. Chaos in Electronic Circuits: Nonlinear Time Series Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wheat, Jr., Robert M. [Kennedy Western Univ., Cheyenne, WY (United States)

    2003-07-01

    Chaos in electronic circuits is a phenomenon that has been largely ignored by engineers, manufacturers, and researchers until the early 1990’s and the work of Chua, Matsumoto, and others. As the world becomes more dependent on electronic devices, the detrimental effects of non-normal operation of these devices becomes more significant. Developing a better understanding of the mechanisms involved in the chaotic behavior of electronic circuits is a logical step toward the prediction and prevention of any potentially catastrophic occurrence of this phenomenon. Also, a better understanding of chaotic behavior, in a general sense, could potentially lead to better accuracy in the prediction of natural events such as weather, volcanic activity, and earthquakes. As a first step in this improvement of understanding, and as part of the research being reported here, methods of computer modeling, identifying and analyzing, and producing chaotic behavior in simple electronic circuits have been developed. The computer models were developed using both the Alternative Transient Program (ATP) and Spice, the analysis techniques have been implemented using the C and C++ programming languages, and the chaotically behaving circuits developed using “off the shelf” electronic components.

  16. Overcoming barriers to integrating economic analysis into risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffmann, Sandra

    2011-09-01

    Regulatory risk analysis is designed to provide decisionmakers with a clearer understanding of how policies are likely to affect risk. The systems that produce risk are biological, physical, and social and economic. As a result, risk analysis is an inherently interdisciplinary task. Yet in practice, risk analysis has been interdisciplinary in only limited ways. Risk analysis could provide more accurate assessments of risk if there were better integration of economics and other social sciences into risk assessment itself. This essay examines how discussions about risk analysis policy have influenced the roles of various disciplines in risk analysis. It explores ways in which integrated bio/physical-economic modeling could contribute to more accurate assessments of risk. It reviews examples of the kind of integrated economics-bio/physical modeling that could be used to enhance risk assessment. The essay ends with a discussion of institutional barriers to greater integration of economic modeling into risk assessment and provides suggestions on how these might be overcome. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  17. Differentiation of closely related fungi by electronic nose analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlshøj, Kristian; Nielsen, Per Væggemose; Larsen, Thomas Ostenfeld

    2007-01-01

    the electronic nose potentially responded to, volatile metabolites were collected, by diffusive sampling overnight onto tubes containing Tenax TA, between the 7th and 8th day of Incubation.Volatiles were analyzed by gas chromatography coupled to mass spectrometry and the results indicated that mail alcohols...... as well as the noacheese ociated P. expansum have been investigated by electronic nose, GC-MS, and LGMS analysis. The isolates were inoculated on yeast extract sucroseagar in 20-mL headspace flasks and electronicnose analysis was performed daily for a-74period. To assess which volatile metabolites...... by high pressure liquid chromatography, coupled-to a diode array detector and a time of flight mass spectrometer. Several mycotoxins were detected in samples from the specles P.nordicum, P.roqueforti, P.paneum, P.carneum, and P.expansum. Differentiation of closely related mycotoxin producing fungi...

  18. Chloride ingress profiles measured by electron probe micro analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Ole mejlhede; Coats, Alison M.; Glasser, Fred P.

    1996-01-01

    Traditional techniques for measuring chloride ingress profiles do not apply well to high performance cement paste systems; the geometric resolution of the traditional measuring techniques is too low. In this paper measurements by Electron Probe Micro Analysis (EPMA) are presented. EPMA is demonst......Traditional techniques for measuring chloride ingress profiles do not apply well to high performance cement paste systems; the geometric resolution of the traditional measuring techniques is too low. In this paper measurements by Electron Probe Micro Analysis (EPMA) are presented. EPMA...... is demonstated to determine chloride ingress in cement paste on a micrometer scale. Potential chloride ingress routes such as cracks or the paste-aggregate interface may also be characterized by EPMA. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd...

  19. Prevalence and risk factors of electronic cigarette use among adolescents: Data from four Swedish municipalities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Geidne Susanna

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available AIMS – To assess the prevalence rates and risk factors of electronic cigarette (e-cigarette use, with special focus on e-cigarettes containing nicotine, among grade 9 students (aged 15–16 years in four different municipalities in Sweden.

  20. Hazardous substances in electronics: the effects of European Union risk regulation on China

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Biedenkopf, K.

    2012-01-01

    This article argues that European Union (EU) risk regulation of hazardous substances in electrical and electronic equipment (EEE) was both a trigger and formative factor in the development of similar Chinese regulation. The attractiveness and global interdependence of the EU market in EEE impelled a

  1. Economic analysis and management of climatic risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hourcade, J.C. (Centre International de Recherche sur l' Environnement et le Developpement, 92 - Montrouge (France))

    1994-01-01

    This paper aims at framing the collective decision problem in the face of climate change. It shows why it would be irrelevant to handle it in the form of a classical decision under uncertainty framework where a cost-benefit analysis is carried out including probability distribution on damages and risk aversion coefficients. A sequential approach to policy making is then proposed as an alternative in order to account for the inertia of socio-economic dynamics and the value of information. A simple model illustrates the gap between these two approaches; it shows the importance of combining the investments on climatic research, innovation policies and so-called 'no regret' short term decisions. It shows the fact that, even if they can be considered as quantitatively moderate, these potentials have a critical impact on long term viability of development; they embed a very high information value, lengthening the learning time vis-a-vis potentially major but controversial risks. (author). 21 refs., 3 figs.

  2. Risk oriented analysis of the SNR-300

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koeberlein, K.

    1982-01-01

    The Fact Finding Committee on 'Future Nuclear Power Policy' established by the 8th German Federal Parliament in its report of June 1980 among other items published the recommendation to commission a 'risk oriented analysis' of the SNR-300 in order to enable a pragmatic comparison to be made of the safety of the German prototype fast breeder reactor and a modern light water reactor (a Biblis B PWR). The Federal Minister for Research and Technology in August 1981 officially commissioned the Gesellschaft fuer Reaktorsicherheit (GRS) to conduct the study. Following a recommendation by the Fact Finding Committee, additional studies were performed also by a group of opponents of the breeder reactor. On the instigation of the group of opponents the delivery date of the study was altered several times and finally set at April 30, 1982. GRS submitted its report by this deadline. However, a joint report by the two groups could not be compiled, as had been requested by the client, because the contributions of the opponents were not made available until mid-May 1982 and then only as an 'interim report'. In summary, the GRS study indicates that the frequency and severity of major accidents is lower for the SNR-300 at the Kalkar site than for a PWR as covered in the German Nuclear Power Plant Risk Study. (orig.) [de

  3. Development of probabilistic risk analysis library

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soga, Shota; Kirimoto, Yukihiro; Kanda, Kenichi

    2015-01-01

    We developed a library that is designed to perform level 1 Probabilistic Risk Analysis using Binary Decision Diagram (BDD). In particular, our goal is to develop a library that will allow Japanese electric utilities to take the advantages of BDD that can solve Event Tree (ET) and Fault Tree (FT) models analytically. Using BDD, the library supports negation in FT which allows more flexible modeling of ET/FT. The library is written by C++ within an object-oriented framework using open source software. The library itself is a header-only library so that Japanese electric utilities can take advantages of its transparency to speed up development and to build their own software for their specific needs. In this report, the basic capabilities of the library is briefly described. In addition, several applications of the library are demonstrated including validation of MCS evaluation of PRA model and evaluation of corrective and preventive maintenance considering common cause failure. (author)

  4. Technology and Power. A Foucauldian Analysis of Electronic Monitoring Discourses

    OpenAIRE

    Anna Vitores; Miquel Domènech

    2007-01-01

    The article aims to show the importance of FOUCAULT within social studies of science and technology. It also illustrates how a Foucauldian analysis can be useful for studies of science, technology and society focused on power effects. To accomplish these objectives we analyze the emergence of a specific techno-scientific innovation: the electronic monitoring of offenders. We map the discontinuities and discourse dispersions linked to those practices that constitute different materializations ...

  5. Analysis of uncertainty in modeling perceived risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Melnyk, R.; Sandquist, G.M.

    2005-01-01

    Expanding on a mathematical model developed for quantifying and assessing perceived risks, the distribution functions, variances, and uncertainties associated with estimating the model parameters are quantified. The analytical model permits the identification and assignment of any number of quantifiable risk perception factors that can be incorporated within standard risk methodology. Those risk perception factors associated with major technical issues are modeled using lognormal probability density functions to span the potentially large uncertainty variations associated with these risk perceptions. The model quantifies the logic of public risk perception and provides an effective means for measuring and responding to perceived risks. (authors)

  6. Risk Analysis for Performance Improvement in a Romanian Pharmaceutical Company

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dana Corina Deselnicu

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents risk management analysis carried out to investigate the operations of a Romanian company dealing with the distribution of pharmaceutical products. The main risks challenging the company were identified, described and classified, providing a scientific base for further analysis. Then, the identified inherent risks were evaluated using tools as the risk index method and the risk matrix in order to emphasize their tolerance level. According to the results of the evaluation, risk mitigation strategies and measures were advanced for the management of the analysed risks. Relevant conclusions were drawn from the experience.

  7. Vacuum Analysis of Scanning Horn of Electron Beam Machine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suprapto; Sukidi; Sukaryono; Setyo Atmojo; Djasiman

    2003-01-01

    Vacuum analysis of scanning horn of electron beam machine (EBM) has been carried out. In EBM, electron beam produced by the electron gun is accelerated by the accelerating tube toward the target via scanning horn and window. To avoid the disturbance of electron beam trajectory in side the EBM, it is necessary to evacuate the EBM. In designing and constructing the scanning horn, vacuum analysis must be carried out to find the ultimate vacuum grade based on the analysis as well as on the test resulted by the vacuum pump. The ultimate vacuum grade is important and affecting the electron trajectory from electron gun to the target. The yield of the vacuum analysis show that the load gas to be evacuated were the outgassing, permeation and leakages where each value were 5.96487x10 -6 Torr liter/sec, 6.32083x10 -7 Torr liter/sec, and 1.3116234x10 -4 Torr liter/sec respectively, so that the total gas load was 1.377587x10 -4 Torr liter/sec. The total conductivity according to test result was 15.769 liter/sec, while the effective pumping rate and maximum vacuum obtained by RD 150 pump were 14.269 Torr liter/sec and 9.65x10 -6 Torr respectively, The vacuum steady state indicated by the test result was 3.5x10 -5 Torr. The pressure of 3.5x10 -5 Torr showed by the test is close to the capability of vacuum pump that is 2x10 -5 Torr. The vacuum test indicated a good result and that there was no leakage along the welding joint. In the latter of installation it considered to be has a pressure of 5x10 -6 Torr, because the aluminum gasket will be used to seal the window flanges and will be evacuated by turbomolecular pump with pumping rate of 500 liter/sec and ultimate vacuum of -10 Torr. (author)

  8. ANALYSIS AND MANAGEMENT RISK IN INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS

    OpenAIRE

    Lăpăduşi Mihaela Loredana,; Căruntu Constantin

    2009-01-01

    The risk is one of the most controversial issues for all persons involved both in domestic and international world economic affairs. The need to analyze, understand and effectively manage risk is growing, the ultimate aim being to obtain a higher degree of successThe risk means exposure to an uncertain future, the opportunity to face danger or suffering a loss ( "Risk - possibility of loss or injury", Webster's, 1995) or the chance that things go wrong ( "Risk is the change that something wil...

  9. Insurability of Cyber Risk: An Empirical Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Biener, Christian; Eling, Martin; Wirfs, Jan Hendrik

    2015-01-01

    This paper discusses the adequacy of insurance for managing cyber risk. To this end, we extract 994 cases of cyber losses from an operational risk database and analyse their statistical properties. Based on the empirical results and recent literature, we investigate the insurability of cyber risk by systematically reviewing the set of criteria introduced by Berliner (1982). Our findings emphasise the distinct characteristics of cyber risks compared with other operational risks and bring to li...

  10. HANFORD SAFETY ANALYSIS & RISK ASSESSMENT HANDBOOK (SARAH)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    EVANS, C B

    2004-12-21

    The purpose of the Hanford Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) is to support the development of safety basis documentation for Hazard Category 2 and 3 (HC-2 and 3) U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear facilities to meet the requirements of 10 CFR 830, ''Nuclear Safety Management''. Subpart B, ''Safety Basis Requirements.'' Consistent with DOE-STD-3009-94, Change Notice 2, ''Preparation Guide for U.S. Department of Energy Nonreactor Nuclear Facility Documented Safety Analyses'' (STD-3009), and DOE-STD-3011-2002, ''Guidance for Preparation of Basis for Interim Operation (BIO) Documents'' (STD-3011), the Hanford SARAH describes methodology for performing a safety analysis leading to development of a Documented Safety Analysis (DSA) and derivation of Technical Safety Requirements (TSR), and provides the information necessary to ensure a consistently rigorous approach that meets DOE expectations. The DSA and TSR documents, together with the DOE-issued Safety Evaluation Report (SER), are the basic components of facility safety basis documentation. For HC-2 or 3 nuclear facilities in long-term surveillance and maintenance (S&M), for decommissioning activities, where source term has been eliminated to the point that only low-level, residual fixed contamination is present, or for environmental remediation activities outside of a facility structure, DOE-STD-1120-98, ''Integration of Environment, Safety, and Health into Facility Disposition Activities'' (STD-1120), may serve as the basis for the DSA. HC-2 and 3 environmental remediation sites also are subject to the hazard analysis methodologies of this standard.

  11. An Optimized Thermal Analysis of Electronic Unit Used in Aircraft

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shah, A.N.; Mir, F.; Farooq, M.; Farooq, M.

    2014-01-01

    In a field where change and growth is inevitable, new electronic packaging problems continuously arise. Smaller, but more powerful devices are prone to overheating causing intermittent system failures, corrupted signals and outright system failure. Current study is focused on the analysis of the optimized working of electronic equipment from thermal point of view. In order to achieve the objective, an approach was developed for the thermal analysis of Printed Circuit Board (PCB) including the heat dissipation of its electronic components and then removal of the heat in a sophisticated manner by considering the conduction and convection modes of heat transfer. Mathematical modeling was carried out for a certain problem to address the thermal design, and then a program was developed in MATLAB for the solution of model by using Newton-Raphson method. The proposed unit is to be mounted on an aircraft having suspected thermal characteristics owing to abrupt changes in pressure and temperature as aircraft moves quickly from a lower altitude to higher altitude. In current study, dominant mode of heat transfer was conduction revealing that the major portion of heat transfer takes place by copper cladding and that heat conduction along the length of PCB can be improved enormously by using even thin layer of copper. The results confirmed that temperatures of all the electronic components were within derated values. Meanwhile, it was known that convection also plays a significant role in the reduction of temperatures of the components. The reduction in nodal temperature was in the range of 13 to 42 %. Furthermore, altitude variation from sea level to 15240 m (above sea level) caused the reduction in pressure from 1atm to 0.1095 atm. Consequently, the temperature of the electronic components increased from 73.25 degree C to 83.83 degree C for first node 'a', and from 66.04 degree C to 68.47 degree C for last node 'n' because of the decrease in the convective heat transfer

  12. Quantitative methods for the analysis of electron microscope images

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skands, Peter Ulrik Vallø

    1996-01-01

    The topic of this thesis is an general introduction to quantitative methods for the analysis of digital microscope images. The images presented are primarily been acquired from Scanning Electron Microscopes (SEM) and interfermeter microscopes (IFM). The topic is approached though several examples...... foundation of the thesis fall in the areas of: 1) Mathematical Morphology; 2) Distance transforms and applications; and 3) Fractal geometry. Image analysis opens in general the possibility of a quantitative and statistical well founded measurement of digital microscope images. Herein lies also the conditions...

  13. Utilizing Dental Electronic Health Records Data to Predict Risk for Periodontal Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thyvalikakath, Thankam P; Padman, Rema; Vyawahare, Karnali; Darade, Pratiksha; Paranjape, Rhucha

    2015-01-01

    Periodontal disease is a major cause for tooth loss and adversely affects individuals' oral health and quality of life. Research shows its potential association with systemic diseases like diabetes and cardiovascular disease, and social habits such as smoking. This study explores mining potential risk factors from dental electronic health records to predict and display patients' contextualized risk for periodontal disease. We retrieved relevant risk factors from structured and unstructured data on 2,370 patients who underwent comprehensive oral examinations at the Indiana University School of Dentistry, Indianapolis, IN, USA. Predicting overall risk and displaying relationships between risk factors and their influence on the patient's oral and general health can be a powerful educational and disease management tool for patients and clinicians at the point of care.

  14. Identification of Patient Safety Risks Associated with Electronic Health Records: A Software Quality Perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Virginio, Luiz A; Ricarte, Ivan Luiz Marques

    2015-01-01

    Although Electronic Health Records (EHR) can offer benefits to the health care process, there is a growing body of evidence that these systems can also incur risks to patient safety when developed or used improperly. This work is a literature review to identify these risks from a software quality perspective. Therefore, the risks were classified based on the ISO/IEC 25010 software quality model. The risks identified were related mainly to the characteristics of "functional suitability" (i.e., software bugs) and "usability" (i.e., interface prone to user error). This work elucidates the fact that EHR quality problems can adversely affect patient safety, resulting in errors such as incorrect patient identification, incorrect calculation of medication dosages, and lack of access to patient data. Therefore, the risks presented here provide the basis for developers and EHR regulating bodies to pay attention to the quality aspects of these systems that can result in patient harm.

  15. Investigating the role of electronic insurance on decreasing exporting charges risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farideh MosallaiZade

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, the electronic insurance (EI is one the electronic services, which is used in most countries, and that is one effective factor in developing the exporting products and services. On the other hand, the incurrence industry and very especially EI represent their importance both domestically and internationally. One of the ways for transferring the exporting risks is to transfer the risks to the insurer. This paper examines the characteristics of EI and the effects of decreasing the exporting risk charges. The proposed study designs a questionnaire in the form of Likert scale, the validity of the questionnaire is validated by some the experts' viewpoints and the Cronbach' alpha is measure as 0.794. The results of applying Freedman test have disclosed that facilitating export activities was the most important factor followed by access to target export market information.

  16. 49 CFR 260.17 - Credit risk premium analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Credit risk premium analysis. 260.17 Section 260... Financial Assistance § 260.17 Credit risk premium analysis. (a) When Federal appropriations are not available to cover the total subsidy cost, the Administrator will determine the Credit Risk Premium...

  17. Integration of risk analysis, land use planning, and cost analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rajen, G.; Sanchez, G.

    1994-01-01

    The Department of Energy (DOE) and the Pueblo of San Ildefonso (Pueblo), which is a sovereign Indian tribe, have often been involved in adversarial situations regarding the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The Pueblo shares a common boundary with the LANL. This paper describes an on-going project that could alter the DOE and the Pueblo's relationship to one of cooperation; and unite the DOE and the Pueblo in a Pollution Prevention/Waste Minimization, and Integrated Risk Analysis and Land Use Planning effort

  18. Population prevalence and control of cardiovascular risk factors: what electronic medical records tell us.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Catalán-Ramos, Arantxa; Verdú, Jose M; Grau, María; Iglesias-Rodal, Manuel; del Val García, José L; Consola, Alicia; Comin, Eva

    2014-01-01

    To analyze the prevalence, control, and management of hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, and diabetes mellitus type 2 (DM2). Cross-sectional analysis of all individuals attended in the Catalan primary care centers between 2006 and 2009. History of cardiovascular diseases, diagnosis and treatment of hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, DM2, lipid profile, glycemia and blood pressure data were extracted from electronic medical records. Age-standardized prevalence and levels of management and control were estimated. Individuals aged 35-74 years using primary care databases. A total of 2,174,515 individuals were included (mean age 52 years [SD 11], 47% men). Hypertension was the most prevalent cardiovascular risk factor (39% in women, 41% in men) followed by hypercholesterolemia (38% and 40%) and DM2 (12% and 16%), respectively. Diuretics and angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors were most often prescribed for hypertension control (women treated). Hypercholesterolemia was controlled (low-density lipoprotein cholesterol women with no history of cardiovascular disease, despite lipid-lowering treatment, primarily (90%) with statins. The percentage of women and men with DM2 and with glycated hemoglobin DM2 were adequately controlled; hypercholesterolemia control was particularly low. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

  19. Risk uncertainty analysis methods for NUREG-1150

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benjamin, A.S.; Boyd, G.J.

    1987-01-01

    Evaluation and display of risk uncertainties for NUREG-1150 constitute a principal focus of the Severe Accident Risk Rebaselining/Risk Reduction Program (SARRP). Some of the principal objectives of the uncertainty evaluation are: (1) to provide a quantitative estimate that reflects, for those areas considered, a credible and realistic range of uncertainty in risk; (2) to rank the various sources of uncertainty with respect to their importance for various measures of risk; and (3) to characterize the state of understanding of each aspect of the risk assessment for which major uncertainties exist. This paper describes the methods developed to fulfill these objectives

  20. Conceptual risk assessment framework for global change risk analysis SRP

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Elphinstone, CD

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available on two of the most important underlying factors supporting the ecosystem: productivity and hypoxia afiecting harmful algae blooms (HABs) and the rock lobsters. The risk regimes are a function of two time scales | a ‘high’ wind stress in early summer... is a condition which can lead to various negative impacts depending on the particular marine life, for instance rock lobsters stranding. The exact deflnitions of the two seasonal occurrences resulting in the risk event, ‘high’ wind stress in ‘early...

  1. Multiple Sclerosis Increases Fracture Risk: A Meta-Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guixian Dong

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. The association between multiple sclerosis (MS and fracture risk has been reported, but results of previous studies remain controversial and ambiguous. To assess the association between MS and fracture risk, a meta-analysis was performed. Method. Based on comprehensive searches of the PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science, we identified outcome data from all articles estimating the association between MS and fracture risk. The pooled risk ratios (RRs with 95% confidence intervals (CIs were calculated. Results. A significant association between MS and fracture risk was found. This result remained statistically significant when the adjusted RRs were combined. Subgroup analysis stratified by the site of fracture suggested significant associations between MS and tibia fracture risk, femur fracture risk, hip fracture risk, pelvis fracture risk, vertebrae fracture risk, and humerus fracture risk. In the subgroup analysis by gender, female MS patients had increased fracture risk. When stratified by history of drug use, use of antidepressants, hypnotics/anxiolytics, anticonvulsants, and glucocorticoids increased the risk of fracture risk in MS patients. Conclusions. This meta-analysis demonstrated that MS was significantly associated with fracture risk.

  2. Technical Overview of Ecological Risk Assessment - Analysis Phase: Exposure Characterization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Exposure Characterization is the second major component of the analysis phase of a risk assessment. For a pesticide risk assessment, the exposure characterization describes the potential or actual contact of a pesticide with a plant, animal, or media.

  3. Structural reliability analysis applied to pipeline risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gardiner, M. [GL Industrial Services, Loughborough (United Kingdom); Mendes, Renato F.; Donato, Guilherme V.P. [PETROBRAS S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) of pipelines requires two main components to be provided. These are models of the consequences that follow from some loss of containment incident, and models for the likelihood of such incidents occurring. This paper describes how PETROBRAS have used Structural Reliability Analysis for the second of these, to provide pipeline- and location-specific predictions of failure frequency for a number of pipeline assets. This paper presents an approach to estimating failure rates for liquid and gas pipelines, using Structural Reliability Analysis (SRA) to analyze the credible basic mechanisms of failure such as corrosion and mechanical damage. SRA is a probabilistic limit state method: for a given failure mechanism it quantifies the uncertainty in parameters to mathematical models of the load-resistance state of a structure and then evaluates the probability of load exceeding resistance. SRA can be used to benefit the pipeline risk management process by optimizing in-line inspection schedules, and as part of the design process for new construction in pipeline rights of way that already contain multiple lines. A case study is presented to show how the SRA approach has recently been used on PETROBRAS pipelines and the benefits obtained from it. (author)

  4. A Roadmap of Risk Diagnostic Methods: Developing an Integrated View of Risk Identification and Analysis Techniques

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Williams, Ray; Ambrose, Kate; Bentrem, Laura

    2004-01-01

    ...), which is envisioned to be a comprehensive reference tool for risk identification and analysis (RI AND A) techniques. Program Managers (PMs) responsible for developing or acquiring software-intensive systems typically identify risks in different ways...

  5. Chemical risk evaluation, importance of the risk analysis framework uses: Latin America development restrictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carrillo, M.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation is about reach and results of the risk analysis in Venezuela, chemical dangers in food, human damage, injuries , technologies news in fodd development, toxicity, microbiological risk, technical recommendations

  6. Putting problem formulation at the forefront of GMO risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tepfer, Mark; Racovita, Monica; Craig, Wendy

    2013-01-01

    When applying risk assessment and the broader process of risk analysis to decisions regarding the dissemination of genetically modified organisms (GMOs), the process has a tendency to become remarkably complex. Further, as greater numbers of countries consider authorising the large-scale dissemination of GMOs, and as GMOs with more complex traits reach late stages of development, there has been increasing concern about the burden posed by the complexity of risk analysis. We present here an improved approach for GMO risk analysis that gives a central role to problem formulation. Further, the risk analysis strategy has been clarified and simplified in order to make rigorously scientific risk assessment and risk analysis more broadly accessible to diverse stakeholder groups.

  7. Longitudinal Jitter Analysis of a Linear Accelerator Electron Gun

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MingShan Liu

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available We present measurements and analysis of the longitudinal timing jitter of a Beijing Electron Positron Collider (BEPCII linear accelerator electron gun. We simulated the longitudinal jitter effect of the gun using PARMELA to evaluate beam performance, including: beam profile, average energy, energy spread, and XY emittances. The maximum percentage difference of the beam parameters is calculated to be 100%, 13.27%, 42.24% and 65.01%, 86.81%, respectively. Due to this, the bunching efficiency is reduced to 54%. However, the longitudinal phase difference of the reference particle was 9.89°. The simulation results are in agreement with tests and are helpful to optimize the beam parameters by tuning the trigger timing of the gun during the bunching process.

  8. Electron bunchlength measurement from analysis of fluctuations in spontaneous emission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Catravas, P.; Leemans, W.P.; Wurtele, J.S.; Zolotorev, M.S.; Babzien, M.; Ben-Zvi, I.; Segalov, Z.; Wang, X.; Yakimenko, V.

    1999-01-01

    A statistical analysis of fluctuations in the spontaneous emission of a single bunch of electrons is shown to provide a new bunchlength diagnostic. This concept, originally proposed by Zolotorev and Stupakov [1], is based on the fact that shot noise from a finite bunch has a correlation length defined by the bunchlength, and therefore has a spiky spectrum. Single shot spectra of wiggler spontaneous emission have been measured at 632 nm from 44 MeV single electron bunches of 1 - 5 ps. The scaling of the spectral fluctuations with frequency resolution and the scaling of the spectral intensity distribution with bunchlength are studied. Bunchlength was extracted in a single shot measurement. Agreement was obtained between the experiment and a theoretical model, and with independent time integrated measurements. copyright 1999 American Institute of Physics

  9. Use and Customization of Risk Scores for Predicting Cardiovascular Events Using Electronic Health Record Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolfson, Julian; Vock, David M; Bandyopadhyay, Sunayan; Kottke, Thomas; Vazquez-Benitez, Gabriela; Johnson, Paul; Adomavicius, Gediminas; O'Connor, Patrick J

    2017-04-24

    Clinicians who are using the Framingham Risk Score (FRS) or the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE) to estimate risk for their patients based on electronic health data (EHD) face 4 questions. (1) Do published risk scores applied to EHD yield accurate estimates of cardiovascular risk? (2) Are FRS risk estimates, which are based on data that are up to 45 years old, valid for a contemporary patient population seeking routine care? (3) Do the PCE make the FRS obsolete? (4) Does refitting the risk score using EHD improve the accuracy of risk estimates? Data were extracted from the EHD of 84 116 adults aged 40 to 79 years who received care at a large healthcare delivery and insurance organization between 2001 and 2011. We assessed calibration and discrimination for 4 risk scores: published versions of FRS and PCE and versions obtained by refitting models using a subset of the available EHD. The published FRS was well calibrated (calibration statistic K=9.1, miscalibration ranging from 0% to 17% across risk groups), but the PCE displayed modest evidence of miscalibration (calibration statistic K=43.7, miscalibration from 9% to 31%). Discrimination was similar in both models (C-index=0.740 for FRS, 0.747 for PCE). Refitting the published models using EHD did not substantially improve calibration or discrimination. We conclude that published cardiovascular risk models can be successfully applied to EHD to estimate cardiovascular risk; the FRS remains valid and is not obsolete; and model refitting does not meaningfully improve the accuracy of risk estimates. © 2017 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

  10. Statistical models for competing risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sather, H.N.

    1976-08-01

    Research results on three new models for potential applications in competing risks problems. One section covers the basic statistical relationships underlying the subsequent competing risks model development. Another discusses the problem of comparing cause-specific risk structure by competing risks theory in two homogeneous populations, P1 and P2. Weibull models which allow more generality than the Berkson and Elveback models are studied for the effect of time on the hazard function. The use of concomitant information for modeling single-risk survival is extended to the multiple failure mode domain of competing risks. The model used to illustrate the use of this methodology is a life table model which has constant hazards within pre-designated intervals of the time scale. Two parametric models for bivariate dependent competing risks, which provide interesting alternatives, are proposed and examined

  11. Computational Aspects of Dam Risk Analysis: Findings and Challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ignacio Escuder-Bueno

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, risk analysis techniques have proved to be a useful tool to inform dam safety management. This paper summarizes the outcomes of three themes related to dam risk analysis discussed in the Benchmark Workshops organized by the International Commission on Large Dams Technical Committee on “Computational Aspects of Analysis and Design of Dams.” In the 2011 Benchmark Workshop, estimation of the probability of failure of a gravity dam for the sliding failure mode was discussed. Next, in 2013, the discussion focused on the computational challenges of the estimation of consequences in dam risk analysis. Finally, in 2015, the probability of sliding and overtopping in an embankment was analyzed. These Benchmark Workshops have allowed a complete review of numerical aspects for dam risk analysis, showing that risk analysis methods are a very useful tool to analyze the risk of dam systems, including downstream consequence assessments and the uncertainty of structural models.

  12. Seismic risk analysis in the German risk study phase B

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hasser, D.; Liemersdorf, J.

    1989-01-01

    The paper discusses some aspects of the seismic risk part of the German risk study for nuclear power plants, phase B. First simplified analyses in phase A of the study allowed a rough classification of structures and systems of the PWR reference plant according to their seismic risk contribution. These studies were extended in phase B using improved models for the dynamic analyses of buildings, structures and components as well as for the probabilistic analyses of seismic loading, failure probabilities and event trees. The methodology of deriving probabilistic seismic load descriptions is explained and compared with the methods in phase A of the study and in other studies. Some details of the linear and nonlinear dynamic analyses of structures are reported, in order to demonstrate the influence of different assumptions for material behavior and failure criteria. The probabilistic structural and event tree analyses are discussed with respect to the distribution assumptions, acceptable simplifications, special results for the PWR reference plant and, finally, the influence of model uncertainties

  13. Database for Simulation of Electron Spectra for Surface Analysis (SESSA)Database for Simulation of Electron Spectra for Surface Analysis (SESSA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    SRD 100 Database for Simulation of Electron Spectra for Surface Analysis (SESSA)Database for Simulation of Electron Spectra for Surface Analysis (SESSA) (PC database for purchase)   This database has been designed to facilitate quantitative interpretation of Auger-electron and X-ray photoelectron spectra and to improve the accuracy of quantitation in routine analysis. The database contains all physical data needed to perform quantitative interpretation of an electron spectrum for a thin-film specimen of given composition. A simulation module provides an estimate of peak intensities as well as the energy and angular distributions of the emitted electron flux.

  14. Automating risk analysis of software design models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frydman, Maxime; Ruiz, Guifré; Heymann, Elisa; César, Eduardo; Miller, Barton P

    2014-01-01

    The growth of the internet and networked systems has exposed software to an increased amount of security threats. One of the responses from software developers to these threats is the introduction of security activities in the software development lifecycle. This paper describes an approach to reduce the need for costly human expertise to perform risk analysis in software, which is common in secure development methodologies, by automating threat modeling. Reducing the dependency on security experts aims at reducing the cost of secure development by allowing non-security-aware developers to apply secure development with little to no additional cost, making secure development more accessible. To automate threat modeling two data structures are introduced, identification trees and mitigation trees, to identify threats in software designs and advise mitigation techniques, while taking into account specification requirements and cost concerns. These are the components of our model for automated threat modeling, AutSEC. We validated AutSEC by implementing it in a tool based on data flow diagrams, from the Microsoft security development methodology, and applying it to VOMS, a grid middleware component, to evaluate our model's performance.

  15. Analysis of Mitral Valve Replacement Outcomes is Enhanced by Meaningful Clinical Use of Electronic Health Records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, John C; Pfeffer, Thomas; Johnstone, Shelley; Chen, Yuexin; Kiley, Mary-Lou; Richter, Richard; Lee, Hon

    2013-01-01

    Objective: Cardiac surgical mortality has improved during the last decade despite the aging of the population. An integrated US health plan developed a heart valve registry to track outcomes and complications of heart valve operations. This database was used for longitudinal evaluation of mitral valve (MV) outcomes from 1999 to 2008 at four affiliated hospitals. Methods: We identified 3130 patients in the Apollo database who underwent 3180 initial MV procedures. Internal administrative and Social Security Administration databases were merged to determine survival rates. Electronic health records were searched to ascertain demographics, comorbidities, and postoperative complications. Cox regression was used to evaluate mean survival and identify risk factors. Results: The procedures included 1160 mechanical valve replacements, 1159 tissue valve replacements, and 861 annuloplasties. The mean age of patients undergoing these procedures was 58 ± 11 years, 69 ± 12 years, and 62 ± 12 years, respectively. Mean survival was 8.9 ± 0.1 years for mechanical valve replacement, 7.0 ± 0.1 years for tissue valve replacement, and 7.7 ± 0.1 years for annuloplasty. Early in the study, there was a preference for implanting mechanical MVs. Beginning in 2003, more patients received tissue valve replacements rather than mechanical valves. Over time, there was an increasing trend of annuloplasty. Cox regression analysis identified the following risk factors for increased ten-year mortality: tissue valve implantation; advanced age; female sex; nonelective, nonisolated procedure; diabetes; postoperative use of banked blood products; previous cardiovascular intervention; dialysis; and longer perfusion time. Hospital location, reoperation, preoperative anticoagulation, and cardiogenic shock were not statistically significant risk factors. Conclusions: When controlling for other risk factors, we observed a lower long-term survival rate for tissue valve replacement compared with

  16. Predicting Risk of Suicide Attempt Using History of Physical Illnesses From Electronic Medical Records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Wei; Tran, Truyen; Berk, Michael; Venkatesh, Svetha

    2016-01-01

    Background Although physical illnesses, routinely documented in electronic medical records (EMR), have been found to be a contributing factor to suicides, no automated systems use this information to predict suicide risk. Objective The aim of this study is to quantify the impact of physical illnesses on suicide risk, and develop a predictive model that captures this relationship using EMR data. Methods We used history of physical illnesses (except chapter V: Mental and behavioral disorders) from EMR data over different time-periods to build a lookup table that contains the probability of suicide risk for each chapter of the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, 10th Revision (ICD-10) codes. The lookup table was then used to predict the probability of suicide risk for any new assessment. Based on the different lengths of history of physical illnesses, we developed six different models to predict suicide risk. We tested the performance of developed models to predict 90-day risk using historical data over differing time-periods ranging from 3 to 48 months. A total of 16,858 assessments from 7399 mental health patients with at least one risk assessment was used for the validation of the developed model. The performance was measured using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Results The best predictive results were derived (AUC=0.71) using combined data across all time-periods, which significantly outperformed the clinical baseline derived from routine risk assessment (AUC=0.56). The proposed approach thus shows potential to be incorporated in the broader risk assessment processes used by clinicians. Conclusions This study provides a novel approach to exploit the history of physical illnesses extracted from EMR (ICD-10 codes without chapter V-mental and behavioral disorders) to predict suicide risk, and this model outperforms existing clinical assessments of suicide risk. PMID:27400764

  17. Evaluating the risks of clinical research: direct comparative analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rid, Annette; Abdoler, Emily; Roberson-Nay, Roxann; Pine, Daniel S; Wendler, David

    2014-09-01

    Many guidelines and regulations allow children and adolescents to be enrolled in research without the prospect of clinical benefit when it poses minimal risk. However, few systematic methods exist to determine when research risks are minimal. This situation has led to significant variation in minimal risk judgments, raising concern that some children are not being adequately protected. To address this concern, we describe a new method for implementing the widely endorsed "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk. This standard defines research risks as minimal when they do not exceed the risks posed by daily life activities or routine examinations. This study employed a conceptual and normative analysis, and use of an illustrative example. Different risks are composed of the same basic elements: Type, likelihood, and magnitude of harm. Hence, one can compare the risks of research and the risks of daily life by comparing the respective basic elements with each other. We use this insight to develop a systematic method, direct comparative analysis, for implementing the "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk. The method offers a way of evaluating research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities, such as the risk of experiencing anxiety, stress, or other psychological harm. We thus illustrate how direct comparative analysis can be applied in practice by using it to evaluate whether the anxiety induced by a respiratory CO2 challenge poses minimal or greater than minimal risks in children and adolescents. Direct comparative analysis is a systematic method for applying the "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk to research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities. It thereby offers a method to protect children and adolescents in research, while ensuring that important studies are not blocked because of unwarranted concerns about research risks.

  18. RISK ANALYSIS IN INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY AND COMMUNICATION OUTSOURCING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edmir Parada Vasques Prado

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available This research aims at evaluating the risk analysis process in Information Technology and Communication (ICT outsourcing conducted by organizations of the private sector. The research is characterized by being a descriptive, quantitative and transversal type study, which was used the survey method. Data were collected through questionnaire, the sample is not random and we used a convenience sampling process. The research made contributions to understanding the risk analysis process in ICT services outsourcing, and identified statistically significant relationships between risk analysis, organization's size and its industry, and between risk analysis and diversity of outsourced services

  19. Risk-based decision analysis for groundwater operable units

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiaramonte, G.R.

    1995-01-01

    This document proposes a streamlined approach and methodology for performing risk assessment in support of interim remedial measure (IRM) decisions involving the remediation of contaminated groundwater on the Hanford Site. This methodology, referred to as ''risk-based decision analysis,'' also supports the specification of target cleanup volumes and provides a basis for design and operation of the groundwater remedies. The risk-based decision analysis can be completed within a short time frame and concisely documented. The risk-based decision analysis is more versatile than the qualitative risk assessment (QRA), because it not only supports the need for IRMs, but also provides criteria for defining the success of the IRMs and provides the risk-basis for decisions on final remedies. For these reasons, it is proposed that, for groundwater operable units, the risk-based decision analysis should replace the more elaborate, costly, and time-consuming QRA

  20. A comparative analysis of risk and quality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lynette, Jennifer Elyse

    2017-01-01

    Within the field of emergency management and fire response, risk and quality are conceptualized to some degree in every response effort. Quality is viewed as a relatively new concept within the field of emergency management and fire response. Whereas, within this same field the concept of risk is....... This understanding can serve to facilitate more informed and effective decision making that incorporates both risk and quality before, during, and after emergency events....... independently, decision making and judgement processes have the potential to be positively impacted by furthering research and developing a deeper understanding of these constructs. By understanding risk management principles and combining that with a quality systems approach, decision making can be improved......Within the field of emergency management and fire response, risk and quality are conceptualized to some degree in every response effort. Quality is viewed as a relatively new concept within the field of emergency management and fire response. Whereas, within this same field the concept of risk...

  1. Technology and Power. A Foucauldian Analysis of Electronic Monitoring Discourses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Vitores

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available The article aims to show the importance of FOUCAULT within social studies of science and technology. It also illustrates how a Foucauldian analysis can be useful for studies of science, technology and society focused on power effects. To accomplish these objectives we analyze the emergence of a specific techno-scientific innovation: the electronic monitoring of offenders. We map the discontinuities and discourse dispersions linked to those practices that constitute different materializations of this electronic device. Because we start from questions concerning power technologies, rather than simply analyzing the ideologies and knowledges that legitimate electronic monitoring and its technical reliability, we attend to the assemblage of discourses, rhetorics, vocabularies, techniques and procedures by which knowledge is intertwined and joins with the exercise of power. In this way, we show how one of FOUCAULT's technologies of power—disciplinary technology—is articulated, nourished and contradicted by other emergent logics drawing on new forms of regulation and social control. URN: urn:nbn:de:0114-fqs070225

  2. Quantification of multielement-multilayer-samples in electron probe analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pfeiffer, A.

    1995-03-01

    The following dissertation presents the theoretical basis of analytical correction models and Monte Carlo simulations in the field of electron probe microanalysis to describe the excitation conditions of x-rays in a multilayer-multielement-sample. In this connection analyzing programs have been developed to make a quantitative investigation of heterogeneous samples possible. In the work the mathematical methods and formulas, which are mainly based on empirical and semiempirical findings, are described and their validity is discussed in detail. Especially the improvements of the 'multiple reflections'-model by August are compared with the Φ(ρz)-models by Pouchou, Merlet and Bastin. The calculations of depth distribution functions for characteristics and continuous fluorescence excitation result in a consistent and completeΦ(ρz)-model. This allows to analyze layered structures in great detail. Because of the increasing importance in electron probe microanalysis and as a reference method a Monte Carlo model is described. With this model electron trajectories and excitation conditions in arbitrary two dimensional geometries can be calculated. The validity of the analytical model is proven with a comprehensive comparison of results of new calculations to published data. To show an application of the programs and models in routine use in the industrial research and development, a quantitative analysis of a Co/Si system is made. In the conclusion of this dissertation some reflections upon investigations, which are based on this work and which should be made in future are outlined. (author)

  3. Implementation of transparency and accountability under risk-based audit of electronic procurement system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.S. Pysmenna

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The research analyzes the international norms and practice of realization of the purpose of state audit authorities. It is established that the activities of the state audit are aimed at improving the lives of citizens, and for this purpose the control authority, through the implementation of the principles, should achieve the goals of strengthening the principles of accountability, transparency and integrity in government and public institutions, demonstrating constant importance for citizens, parliament and other stakeholders, maintaining integrity. The study of domestic legislation on state audit in relation to compliance with international norms is conducted; the gaps and inconsistencies regarding compliance with the basic principles of transparency and accountability that ensure the purpose of the control authority activities are identified. It is determined that in order to formulate reports on the results of public procurement audits for informing the public, it is necessary to improve and apply a broader methodology of risk-based audit. The article investigates the preconditions and identifies the risks of the electronic procurement system, provides their characteristics and identifies the areas, which are negatively affected by the risks. The author identifies the information components and management functions that cannot be performed qualitatively because of the existence of risks and threats; the author also specifies the procedures for internal control over the process of administration of public procurement, and if the procedures are faced with failure, it increases the identified risks. It is proved that the proposed method of identification and evaluation of the risks of the electronic public procurement system can be used not only as a verification tool but also as the basis for compilation of reports due to the grouping of violations of the negative consequences of risks for the functioning of the system. This will ensure the

  4. A scanning Auger electron spectrometer for internal surface analysis of Large Electron Positron 2 superconducting radio-frequency cavities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benvenuti, C.; Cosso, R.; Genest, J.; Hauer, M.; Lacarrère, D.; Rijllart, A.; Saban, R.

    1996-08-01

    A computer-controlled surface analysis instrument, incorporating static Auger electron spectroscopy, scanning Auger mapping, and secondary electron imaging, has been designed and built at CERN to study and characterize the inner surface of superconducting radio-frequency cavities to be installed in the Large Electron Positron collider. A detailed description of the instrument, including the analytical head, the control system, and the vacuum system is presented. Some recent results obtained from the cavities provide examples of the instrument's capabilities.

  5. Risk analysis in transport and logistics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ene Andreea Bianca

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Globalization and production concentration have led to more efficient supply chain networks, which has led to the emergence of different types of risks. Although most companies have implemented special risk management programs, there may be events that can not be controlled by businesses, and unwanted consequences are not delayed.

  6. Applications of probabilistic risk analysis in nuclear criticality safety design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, J.K.

    1992-01-01

    Many documents have been prepared that try to define the scope of the criticality analysis and that suggest adding probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) to the deterministic safety analysis. The report of the US Department of Energy (DOE) AL 5481.1B suggested that an accident is credible if the occurrence probability is >1 x 10 -6 /yr. The draft DOE 5480 safety analysis report suggested that safety analyses should include the application of methods such as deterministic safety analysis, risk assessment, reliability engineering, common-cause failure analysis, human reliability analysis, and human factor safety analysis techniques. The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) report NRC SG830.110 suggested that major safety analysis methods should include but not be limited to risk assessment, reliability engineering, and human factor safety analysis. All of these suggestions have recommended including PRA in the traditional criticality analysis

  7. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

    2016-04-01

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  8. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

    2016-01-01

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  9. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy, E-mail: gasandylang@live.com; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Diponegoro University, Semarang (Indonesia); Kim, Seon Jin [Department of Mechanical & Automotive Engineering of Pukyong National University (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-04-19

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  10. Essays on Systemic Risk : An analysis from multiple perspectives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. Muns (Sander)

    2016-01-01

    markdownabstractThis thesis is about systemic risk in the financial sector. It considers several aspects of systemic risk. It is a building block for an analysis of the impact of systemic risk on the real economy. It appears that stocks in the financial industry show a strong interdependence

  11. Analysis and management of risks experienced in tunnel construction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cagatay Pamukcu

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In this study, first of all, the definitions of "risk", "risk analysis", "risk assessment" and "risk management" were made to avoid any confusions about these terms and significance of risk analysis and management in engineering projects was emphasized. Then, both qualitative and quantitative risk analysis techniques were mentioned and within the scope of the study, Event Tree Analysis method was selected in order to analyze the risks regarding TBM (Tunnel Boring Machine operations in tunnel construction. After all hazards that would be encountered during tunnel construction by TBM method had been investigated, those hazards were undergoing a Preliminary Hazard Analysis to sort out and prioritize the risks with high scores. When the risk scores were taken into consideration, it was seen that the hazards with high risk scores could be classified into 4 groups which are excavation + support induced accidents, accidents stemming from geologic conditions, auxiliary works, and project contract. According to these four classified groups of initiating events, Event Tree Analysis was conducted by taking into care 4 countermeasures apart from each other. Finally, the quantitative and qualitative consequences of Event Tree Analyses, which were undertaken for all initiating events, were investigated and interpreted together by making comparisons and referring to previous studies.

  12. Perception and acceptance of technological risk sources. Volume 2. Empirical analysis of risk perception and acceptance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Renn, O

    1981-01-01

    Volume 2 presents a comparative investigation of risk perception and acceptance. It contains the evaluations of the two experiments in social psychology and the analysis of two intensive inquiries concerning risk perception with a view to 12 different risk sources. The data of the two inquiries were acquired from a total of 200 interview partners in two cities in North-Rhine Westphalia.

  13. Assessment and uncertainty analysis of groundwater risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Fawen; Zhu, Jingzhao; Deng, Xiyuan; Zhao, Yong; Li, Shaofei

    2018-01-01

    Groundwater with relatively stable quantity and quality is commonly used by human being. However, as the over-mining of groundwater, problems such as groundwater funnel, land subsidence and salt water intrusion have emerged. In order to avoid further deterioration of hydrogeological problems in over-mining regions, it is necessary to conduct the assessment of groundwater risk. In this paper, risks of shallow and deep groundwater in the water intake area of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project in Tianjin, China, were evaluated. Firstly, two sets of four-level evaluation index system were constructed based on the different characteristics of shallow and deep groundwater. Secondly, based on the normalized factor values and the synthetic weights, the risk values of shallow and deep groundwater were calculated. Lastly, the uncertainty of groundwater risk assessment was analyzed by indicator kriging method. The results meet the decision maker's demand for risk information, and overcome previous risk assessment results expressed in the form of deterministic point estimations, which ignore the uncertainty of risk assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Method for environmental risk analysis (MIRA) revision 2007

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-04-01

    OLF's instruction manual for carrying out environmental risk analyses provides a united approach and a common framework for environmental risk assessments. This is based on the best information available. The manual implies standardizations of a series of parameters, input data and partial analyses that are included in the environmental risk analysis. Environmental risk analyses carried out according to the MIRA method will thus be comparable between fields and between companies. In this revision an update of the text in accordance with today's practice for environmental risk analyses and prevailing regulations is emphasized. Moreover, method adjustments for especially protected beach habitats have been introduced, as well as a general method for estimating environmental risk concerning fish. Emphasis has also been put on improving environmental risk analysis' possibilities to contribute to a better management of environmental risk in the companies (ml)

  15. Improving prediction of fall risk among nursing home residents using electronic medical records.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marier, Allison; Olsho, Lauren E W; Rhodes, William; Spector, William D

    2016-03-01

    Falls are physically and financially costly, but may be preventable with targeted intervention. The Minimum Data Set (MDS) is one potential source of information on fall risk factors among nursing home residents, but its limited breadth and relatively infrequent updates may limit its practical utility. Richer, more frequently updated data from electronic medical records (EMRs) may improve ability to identify individuals at highest risk for falls. The authors applied a repeated events survival model to analyze MDS 3.0 and EMR data for 5129 residents in 13 nursing homes within a single large California chain that uses a centralized EMR system from a leading vendor. Estimated regression parameters were used to project resident fall probability. The authors examined the proportion of observed falls within each projected fall risk decile to assess improvements in predictive power from including EMR data. In a model incorporating fall risk factors from the MDS only, 28.6% of observed falls occurred among residents in the highest projected risk decile. In an alternative specification incorporating more frequently updated measures for the same risk factors from the EMR data, 32.3% of observed falls occurred among residents in the highest projected risk decile, a 13% increase over the base MDS-only specification. Incorporating EMR data improves ability to identify those at highest risk for falls relative to prediction using MDS data alone. These improvements stem chiefly from the greater frequency with which EMR data are updated, with minimal additional gains from availability of additional risk factor variables. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  16. Integrated risk analysis of global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shlyakhter, Alexander; Wilson, Richard; Valverde A, L.J. Jr.

    1995-01-01

    This paper discusses several factors that should be considered in integrated risk analyses of global climate change. We begin by describing how the problem of global climate change can be subdivided into largely independent parts that can be linked together in an analytically tractable fashion. Uncertainty plays a central role in integrated risk analyses of global climate change. Accordingly, we consider various aspects of uncertainty as they relate to the climate change problem. We also consider the impacts of these uncertainties on various risk management issues, such as sequential decision strategies, value of information, and problems of interregional and intergenerational equity. (author)

  17. Risk analysis with regard to nuclear engineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birkhofer, A.

    1980-01-01

    The author discusses the following questions: why are risk analyses elaborated. How are they carried out and which problems may arise. Completeness problem, data, human factors, common-mode-failures, accident simulation. To give an idea of the applicability of the results of risk analyses the author deals with systems comparison and system optimization, maintenance and testing strategies, incidents and the course of accidents that have to be considered in designing technical safety measures for nuclear power plants. Finally, the author tries to enter into questions that might arise due to the effects risk analyses may create in the general public. (HSCH) [de

  18. Methodology for risk analysis of nuclear installations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Senne Junior, Murillo; Jordao, Elizabete

    2002-01-01

    Both the licensing standards for general uses in nuclear facilities and the specific ones require a risk assessment during their licensing processes. The risk assessment is carried out through the estimation of both probability of the occurrence of the accident, and their magnitudes. This is a complex task because the great deal of potential hazardous events that can occur in nuclear facilities difficult the statement of the accident scenarios. There are also many available techniques to identify the potential accidents, estimate their probabilities, and evaluate their magnitudes. In this paper is presented a new methodology that systematizes the risk assessment process, and orders the accomplishment of their several steps. (author)

  19. Risk Analysis for Unintentional Slide Deployment During Airline Operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayra, Eduardo S; Insua, David Ríos; Castellanos, María Eugenia; Larbi, Lydia

    2015-09-01

    We present a risk analysis undertaken to mitigate problems in relation to the unintended deployment of slides under normal operations within a commercial airline. This type of incident entails relevant costs for the airline industry. After assessing the likelihood and severity of its consequences, we conclude that such risks need to be managed. We then evaluate the effectiveness of various countermeasures, describing and justifying the chosen ones. We also discuss several issues faced when implementing and communicating the proposed measures, thus fully illustrating the risk analysis process. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  20. Assessment report on NRP sub-theme 'Risk Analysis'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Biesiot, W.; Hendrickx, L.; Olsthoorn, A.A.

    1995-01-01

    An overview and assessment are presented of the three research projects carried out under NRP funding that concern risk-related topics: (1) The risks of nonlinear climate changes, (2) Socio-economic and policy aspects of changes in incidence and intensity of extreme (weather) events, and (3) Characterizing the risks: a comparative analysis of the risks of global warming and of relevant policy strategies. 1 tab., 6 refs

  1. Approach for seismic risk analysis for CANDU plants in Korea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, B-S; Kim, T; Kang, S-K [Korea Power Engineering Co., Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Hong, S-Y; Roh, S-R [Korea Electric Power Corp., Taejon (Korea, Republic of). Research Centre

    1996-12-31

    A seismic risk analysis for CANDU type plants has never been performed. The study presented here suggested that the approach generally applied to LWR type plants could lead to unacceptable result, if directly applied to CANDU plants. This paper presents a modified approach for the seismic risk analysis of CANDU plants. (author). 5 refs., 2 tabs., 2 figs.

  2. Reliability Analysis of the CERN Radiation Monitoring Electronic System CROME

    CERN Document Server

    AUTHOR|(CDS)2126870

    For the new in-house developed CERN Radiation Monitoring Electronic System (CROME) a reliability analysis is necessary to ensure compliance with the statu-tory requirements regarding the Safety Integrity Level. The required Safety Integrity Level by IEC 60532 standard is SIL 2 (for the Safety Integrated Functions Measurement, Alarm Triggering and Interlock Triggering). The first step of the reliability analysis was a system and functional analysis which served as basis for the implementation of the CROME system in the software “Iso-graph”. In the “Prediction” module of Isograph the failure rates of all components were calculated. Failure rates for passive components were calculated by the Military Standard 217 and failure rates for active components were obtained from lifetime tests by the manufacturers. The FMEA was carried out together with the board designers and implemented in the “FMECA” module of Isograph. The FMEA served as basis for the Fault Tree Analysis and the detection of weak points...

  3. Reliability analysis of grid connected small wind turbine power electronics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arifujjaman, Md.; Iqbal, M.T.; Quaicoe, J.E.

    2009-01-01

    Grid connection of small permanent magnet generator (PMG) based wind turbines requires a power conditioning system comprising a bridge rectifier, a dc-dc converter and a grid-tie inverter. This work presents a reliability analysis and an identification of the least reliable component of the power conditioning system of such grid connection arrangements. Reliability of the configuration is analyzed for the worst case scenario of maximum conversion losses at a particular wind speed. The analysis reveals that the reliability of the power conditioning system of such PMG based wind turbines is fairly low and it reduces to 84% of initial value within one year. The investigation is further enhanced by identifying the least reliable component within the power conditioning system and found that the inverter has the dominant effect on the system reliability, while the dc-dc converter has the least significant effect. The reliability analysis demonstrates that a permanent magnet generator based wind energy conversion system is not the best option from the point of view of power conditioning system reliability. The analysis also reveals that new research is required to determine a robust power electronics configuration for small wind turbine conversion systems.

  4. Operational Risk Management A Practical Approach to Intelligent Data Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Kenett, Ron

    2010-01-01

    The book will introduce modern Operational Risk (OpR) Management and illustrates the various sources of OpR assessment and OpR mitigation. This book discusses how various data sources can be integrated and analyzed and how OpR is synergetic to other risk management activities such as Financial Risk Management and Internationalization. The topics will include state of the art technology such as semantic analysis, ontology engineering, data mining and statistical analysis.

  5. Living PRAs [probabilistic risk analysis] made easier with IRRAS [Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russell, K.D.; Sattison, M.B.; Rasmuson, D.M.

    1989-01-01

    The Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) is an integrated PRA software tool that gives the user the ability to create and analyze fault trees and accident sequences using an IBM-compatible microcomputer. This program provides functions that range from graphical fault tree and event tree construction to cut set generation and quantification. IRRAS contains all the capabilities and functions required to create, modify, reduce, and analyze event tree and fault tree models used in the analysis of complex systems and processes. IRRAS uses advanced graphic and analytical techniques to achieve the greatest possible realization of the potential of the microcomputer. When the needs of the user exceed this potential, IRRAS can call upon the power of the mainframe computer. The role of the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory if the IRRAS program is that of software developer and interface to the user community. Version 1.0 of the IRRAS program was released in February 1987 to prove the concept of performing this kind of analysis on microcomputers. This version contained many of the basic features needed for fault tree analysis and was received very well by the PRA community. Since the release of Version 1.0, many user comments and enhancements have been incorporated into the program providing a much more powerful and user-friendly system. This version is designated ''IRRAS 2.0''. Version 3.0 will contain all of the features required for efficient event tree and fault tree construction and analysis. 5 refs., 26 figs

  6. Big Data Risk Analysis for Rail Safety?

    OpenAIRE

    Van Gulijk, Coen; Hughes, Peter; Figueres-Esteban, Miguel; Dacre, Marcus; Harrison, Chris; HUD; RSSB

    2015-01-01

    Computer scientists believe that the enormous amounts of data in the internet will unchain a management revolution of uncanny proportions. Yet, to date, the potential benefit of this revolution is scantily investigated for safety and risk management. This paper gives a brief overview of a research programme that investigates how the new internet-driven data-revolution could benefit safety and risk management for railway safety in the UK. The paper gives a brief overview the current activities...

  7. Integrating Household Risk Mitigation Behavior in Flood Risk Analysis: An Agent-Based Model Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haer, Toon; Botzen, W J Wouter; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen C J H

    2017-10-01

    Recent studies showed that climate change and socioeconomic trends are expected to increase flood risks in many regions. However, in these studies, human behavior is commonly assumed to be constant, which neglects interaction and feedback loops between human and environmental systems. This neglect of human adaptation leads to a misrepresentation of flood risk. This article presents an agent-based model that incorporates human decision making in flood risk analysis. In particular, household investments in loss-reducing measures are examined under three economic decision models: (1) expected utility theory, which is the traditional economic model of rational agents; (2) prospect theory, which takes account of bounded rationality; and (3) a prospect theory model, which accounts for changing risk perceptions and social interactions through a process of Bayesian updating. We show that neglecting human behavior in flood risk assessment studies can result in a considerable misestimation of future flood risk, which is in our case study an overestimation of a factor two. Furthermore, we show how behavior models can support flood risk analysis under different behavioral assumptions, illustrating the need to include the dynamic adaptive human behavior of, for instance, households, insurers, and governments. The method presented here provides a solid basis for exploring human behavior and the resulting flood risk with respect to low-probability/high-impact risks. © 2016 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

  8. Forensic analysis of online marketing for electronic nicotine delivery systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cobb, Nathan K; Brookover, Jody; Cobb, Caroline O

    2015-03-01

    Electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) are growing in awareness and use in the USA. They are currently unregulated as the Food and Drug Administration has yet to assert jurisdiction under its tobacco authority over these products, and a US Court of Appeals held they cannot be regulated as drugs/delivery devices if they are not marketed for a therapeutic purpose. Observation of the current online marketplace suggests ENDS, like some nutraceutical products, are being promoted using affiliate marketing techniques using claims concerning purported health benefits. This study performed a forensic analysis to characterise the relationships between online ENDS affiliate advertisements and ENDS sellers, and evaluated descriptive content on advertisements and websites to inform future policy and regulatory efforts. A purposive sampling strategy was used to identify three forms of ENDS advertising. Web proxy software recorded identifiable objects and their ties to each other. Network analysis of these ties followed, as well as analysis of descriptive content on advertisements and websites identified. The forensic analysis included four ENDS advertisements, two linked affiliate websites, and two linked seller websites, and demonstrated a multilevel relationship between advertisements and sellers with multiple layers of redirection. Descriptive analysis indicated that advertisements and affiliates, but not linked sellers, included smoking cessation claims. Results suggest that ENDS sellers may be trying to distance marketing efforts containing unsubstantiated claims from sales. A separate descriptive analysis of 20 ENDS seller web pages indicated that the use of affiliate marketing by sellers may be widespread. These findings support increased monitoring and regulation of ENDS marketing to prevent deceptive marketing tactics and ensure consumer safety. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please

  9. Project Portfolio Risk Identification and Analysis, Considering Project Risk Interactions and Using Bayesian Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Foroogh Ghasemi

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available An organization’s strategic objectives are accomplished through portfolios. However, the materialization of portfolio risks may affect a portfolio’s sustainable success and the achievement of those objectives. Moreover, project interdependencies and cause–effect relationships between risks create complexity for portfolio risk analysis. This paper presents a model using Bayesian network (BN methodology for modeling and analyzing portfolio risks. To develop this model, first, portfolio-level risks and risks caused by project interdependencies are identified. Then, based on their cause–effect relationships all portfolio risks are organized in a BN. Conditional probability distributions for this network are specified and the Bayesian networks method is used to estimate the probability of portfolio risk. This model was applied to a portfolio of a construction company located in Iran and proved effective in analyzing portfolio risk probability. Furthermore, the model provided valuable information for selecting a portfolio’s projects and making strategic decisions.

  10. False colour backscatter electron images and their application during electron microprobe analysis of ores and host rocks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cousens, D.R.; French, D.H.; Ramsden, A.R.

    1989-01-01

    The limited contrast range of conventional black and white imaging does not enable full use to be made of the dynamic range of the video signal obtained from a scanning electron microscope or microprobe. The use of false colour substantially increases the information that can be derived from such images enabling relationships to be displayed that cannot be observed in black and white. This capability is now used extensively in combination with quantitative electron microprobe analysis as a research tool for ore characterization and host rocks studies related to minerals exploration in the CSIRO Div.sion of Exploration Geoscience. Thus the CAMEBAX scanning electron microprobe has been modified to allow digital images acquisition and software (IMAGE) developed which allows false colour backscatter electron (BSE) images to be obtained during the course of routine electron microprobe analysis. 1 fig

  11. Electron probe analysis of biological fluids: Possibilities and limitations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roinel, N.

    1984-01-01

    Physical methods of investigation have become essential to investigations at the cellular or subcellular level. Nuclear magnetic resonance is the most recent and striking example, since it is not only a tool for fundamental physicists and organic chemists, but also an extraordinary powerful imaging tool for physicians. The absorption properties of X rays were used immediately after their discovery to image the bones of skeletons. Later, X rays were also found to be extremely efficient in the measurement of the elemental content of microvolumes irradiated by electron probes. The electron probe analyzer (EPA) was immediately adopted by numerous laboratories of metallurgy, geology, and mineral sciences. In the last fifteen years, since the use of this instrument was suggested for liquid analysis, and a preparative technique was developed, the EPA has been used by an increasing number of biological laboratories for measuring the concentrations of the elements contained in subnanoliter volumes of biological fluids. The so-called microdroplet technique has become a routine laboratory method, the only one able to measure the concentrations of an unlimited number of elements in a single 0.1-nl sample. This explains its use in fields as various as renal, reproductive, digestive, and plant physiology, zoology, etc. Several review papers discuss these applications. The possibilities and limitations of the technique are discussed below

  12. Single-shell tank interim stabilization risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Basche, A.D.

    1998-01-01

    The purpose of the Single-Shell Tank (SST) Interim Stabilization Risk Analysis is to provide a cost and schedule risk analysis of HNF-2358, Rev. 1, Single-Shell Tank Interim Stabilization Project Plan (Project Plan) (Ross et al. 1998). The analysis compares the required cost profile by fiscal year (Section 4.2) and revised schedule completion date (Section 4.5) to the Project Plan. The analysis also evaluates the executability of the Project Plan and recommends a path forward for risk mitigation

  13. Risk analysis of Finnish peacekeeping in Kosovo.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehtomäki, Kyösti; Pääkkönen, Rauno J; Rantanen, Jorma

    2005-04-01

    The research team interviewed over 90 Finnish battalion members in Kosovo, visited 22 units or posts, registered its observations, and made any necessary measurements. Key persons were asked to list the most important risks for occupational safety and health in their area of responsibility. Altogether, 106 accidents and 40 cases of disease resulted in compensation claims in 2000. The risks to the peacekeeping force were about twice those of the permanent staff of military trainees in Finland. Altogether, 21 accidents or cases of disease resulted in sick leave for at least 3 months after service. One permanent injury resulted from an explosion. Biological, chemical, and physical factors caused 8 to 9 occupational illnesses each. Traffic accidents, operational factors, and munitions and mines were evaluated to be the three most important risk factors, followed by occupational hygiene, living conditions (mold, fungi, dust), and general hygiene. Possible fatal risks, such as traffic accidents and munitions and explosives, received a high ranking in both the subjective and the objective evaluations. One permanent injury resulted from an explosion, and two traffic accidents involved a fatality, although not of a peacekeeper. The reduction of sports and military training accidents, risk-control programs, and, for some tasks, better personal protection is considered a development challenge for the near future.

  14. Anonymization of Electronic Medical Records to Support Clinical Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Gkoulalas-Divanis, Aris

    2013-01-01

    Anonymization of Electronic Medical Records to Support Clinical Analysis closely examines the privacy threats that may arise from medical data sharing, and surveys the state-of-the-art methods developed to safeguard data against these threats. To motivate the need for computational methods, the book first explores the main challenges facing the privacy-protection of medical data using the existing policies, practices and regulations. Then, it takes an in-depth look at the popular computational privacy-preserving methods that have been developed for demographic, clinical and genomic data sharing, and closely analyzes the privacy principles behind these methods, as well as the optimization and algorithmic strategies that they employ. Finally, through a series of in-depth case studies that highlight data from the US Census as well as the Vanderbilt University Medical Center, the book outlines a new, innovative class of privacy-preserving methods designed to ensure the integrity of transferred medical data for su...

  15. LINGUISTIC FEATURES ANALYSIS OF THE ENGLISH ELECTRONIC COMMERCE WEBSITES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Siti Nurani

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available This research aims at identifying linguistic features used in the English electronic commerce websites used in correlation with the field, tenor and mode of discourse as parts of Systemic Functional Linguistics (SFL approach. Findings have shown that in the field of discourse, the linguistic features are largely appeared in the experiential domain analysis which shows that all terms of registers function as technical terms, of which the two major forms of nouns and verbs were the most frequent categories among other kinds of technical terms. The goal orientation is considered to be as a long term and the social activity is exchange. In the tenor of discourse, the linguistic features are highly appeared in the social distance analysis which shows that the social distance between participants is considered minimal. The agentive role is said to be equal and the social role is considered as non-hierarchic. In the mode of discourse, the linguistic features are excessively occurred in the language role analysis which exists equally of both constitutive and ancillary. The channel is in graphic mode. The medium is in written with a visual contact as its device.

  16. Risk Analysis for the Different Consolidation Proposals

    CERN Document Server

    Strait, J

    2009-01-01

    In parallel with the repairs in sector 34, improvements are planned to a number of systems, to allow safe detection of faults similar to the one which caused the incident of 19 September, and to limit the damage should a similar incident nonetheless occur. These include improved bus and quench detection systems, improved pressure relief for the insulating and beam vacuum systems, and improved anchoring of the SSS to the tunnel floor. Not all of the planned mitigations, however, may be fully implemented before the restart of the LHC in 2009. I will review the potential benefits of partial or complete implementation of each of the planned improvements, individually or together with others, and conversely the potential risks (consequences) of delayed implementation. I will also review the risks that remain even after the planned consolidation is complete. Considering all proposals and the different risks, I will comment on what would be the best strategy for consolidation, and on the strategy for operations unde...

  17. The Total Risk Analysis of Large Dams under Flood Hazards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Chen

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Dams and reservoirs are useful systems in water conservancy projects; however, they also pose a high-risk potential for large downstream areas. Flood, as the driving force of dam overtopping, is the main cause of dam failure. Dam floods and their risks are of interest to researchers and managers. In hydraulic engineering, there is a growing tendency to evaluate dam flood risk based on statistical and probabilistic methods that are unsuitable for the situations with rare historical data or low flood probability, so a more reasonable dam flood risk analysis method with fewer application restrictions is needed. Therefore, different from previous studies, this study develops a flood risk analysis method for large dams based on the concept of total risk factor (TRF used initially in dam seismic risk analysis. The proposed method is not affected by the adequacy of historical data or the low probability of flood and is capable of analyzing the dam structure influence, the flood vulnerability of the dam site, and downstream risk as well as estimating the TRF of each dam and assigning corresponding risk classes to each dam. Application to large dams in the Dadu River Basin, Southwestern China, demonstrates that the proposed method provides quick risk estimation and comparison, which can help local management officials perform more detailed dam safety evaluations for useful risk management information.

  18. Risk Analysis for Environmental Health Triage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bogen, K T

    2005-01-01

    The Homeland Security Act mandates development of a national, risk-based system to support planning for, response to and recovery from emergency situations involving large-scale toxic exposures. To prepare for and manage consequences effectively, planners and responders need not only to identify zones of potentially elevated individual risk, but also to predict expected casualties. Emergency response support systems now define ''consequences'' by mapping areas in which toxic chemical concentrations do or may exceed Acute Exposure Guideline Levels (AEGLs) or similar guidelines. However, because AEGLs do not estimate expected risks, current unqualified claims that such maps support consequence management are misleading. Intentionally protective, AEGLs incorporate various safety/uncertainty factors depending on scope and quality of chemical-specific toxicity data. Some of these factors are irrelevant, and others need to be modified, whenever resource constraints or exposure-scenario complexities require responders to make critical trade-off (triage) decisions in order to minimize expected casualties. AEGL-exceedance zones cannot consistently be aggregated, compared, or used to calculate expected casualties, and so may seriously misguide emergency response triage decisions. Methods and tools well established and readily available to support environmental health protection are not yet developed for chemically related environmental health triage. Effective triage decisions involving chemical risks require a new assessment approach that focuses on best estimates of likely casualties, rather than on upper plausible bounds of individual risk. If risk-based consequence management is to become a reality, federal agencies tasked with supporting emergency response must actively coordinate to foster new methods that can support effective environmental health triage

  19. Risk analysis: divergent models and convergent interpretations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carnes, B. A.; Gavrilova, N.

    2001-01-01

    Material presented at a NASA-sponsored workshop on risk models for exposure conditions relevant to prolonged space flight are described in this paper. Analyses used mortality data from experiments conducted at Argonne National Laboratory on the long-term effects of external whole-body irradiation on B6CF1 mice by 60Co gamma rays and fission neutrons delivered as a single exposure or protracted over either 24 or 60 once-weekly exposures. The maximum dose considered was restricted to 1 Gy for neutrons and 10 Gy for gamma rays. Proportional hazard models were used to investigate the shape of the dose response at these lower doses for deaths caused by solid-tissue tumors and tumors of either connective or epithelial tissue origin. For protracted exposures, a significant mortality effect was detected at a neutron dose of 14 cGy and a gamma-ray dose of 3 Gy. For single exposures, radiation-induced mortality for neutrons also occurred within the range of 10-20 cGy, but dropped to 86 cGy for gamma rays. Plots of risk relative to control estimated for each observed dose gave a visual impression of nonlinearity for both neutrons and gamma rays. At least for solid-tissue tumors, male and female mortality was nearly identical for gamma-ray exposures, but mortality risks for females were higher than for males for neutron exposures. As expected, protracting the gamma-ray dose reduced mortality risks. Although curvature consistent with that observed visually could be detected by a model parameterized to detect curvature, a relative risk term containing only a simple term for total dose was usually sufficient to describe the dose response. Although detectable mortality for the three pathology end points considered typically occurred at the same level of dose, the highest risks were almost always associated with deaths caused by tumors of epithelial tissue origin.

  20. Risk factors for radiotherapy incidents and impact of an online electronic reporting system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, David W.; Cheetham, Lynn; Marvelde, Luc te; Bressel, Mathias; Kron, Tomas; Gill, Suki; Tai, Keen Hun; Ball, David; Rose, William; Silva, Linas; Foroudi, Farshad

    2014-01-01

    Background and purpose: To ascertain the rate, type, significance, trends and the potential risk factors associated with radiotherapy incidents in a large academic department. Materials and methods: Data for all radiotherapy activities from July 2001 to January 2011 were reviewed from radiotherapy incident reporting forms. Patient and treatment data were obtained from the radiotherapy record and verification database (MOSAIQ) and the patient database (HOSPRO). Logistic regression analyses were performed to determine variables associated with radiotherapy incidents. Results: In that time, 65,376 courses of radiotherapy were delivered with a reported incident rate of 2.64 per 100 courses. The rate of incidents per course increased (1.96 per 100 courses to 3.52 per 100 courses, p < 0.001) whereas the proportion of reported incidents resulting in >5% deviation in dose (10.50 to 2.75%, p < 0.001) had decreased after the introduction of an online electronic reporting system. The following variables were associated with an increased rate of incidents: afternoon treatment time, paediatric patients, males, inpatients, palliative plans, head-and-neck, skin, sarcoma and haematological malignancies. In general, complex plans were associated with higher incidence rates. Conclusion: Radiotherapy incidents were infrequent and most did not result in significant dose deviation. A number of risk factors were identified and these could be used to highlight high-risk cases in the future. Introduction of an online electronic reporting system resulted in a significant increase in the number of incidents being reported

  1. Stress Analysis in Managing the Region’s Budget Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalya Pavlovna Pazdnikova

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The article addresses the implementation of budget risk management methods into the practices of governmental authorities. Drawing on the example of a particular region the article aims to demonstrate the possible methods of budget risk management. The authors refine the existing approaches to the notion of risk in its relation to budget system by introducing the notion of “budget risk.” Here the focus is the risk of default of budget spending in full which causes underfunding of territories and decrease in quality of life in the region. The authors have particularized the classification of budget risks and grouped together the criteria and factors which significantly influence the assessment and choice of method to manage budget risks. They hypothesize that budget risk is a financial risk. Therefore, the methods of financial risks management can be applied to budget risks management. The authors suggest a methodological approach to risk assessment based on correlation and regression analysis of program financing. The application of Kendall rank correlation coefficient allowed to assess the efficiency of budget spending on the implementation of state programs in Perm Krai. Two clusters — “Nature management and infrastructure” and “Public security” — turned out to be in the zone of high budget risk. The method of stress analysis, which consists in calculating Value at Risk (VaR, was applied to budget risks that in terms of probability are classified as critical. In order to assess risk as probability rate, the amount of Perm Krai deficit budget was calculated as induced variable from budget revenues and spending. The results demonstrate that contemporary management of public resources in the regions calls for the implementation of new management tools of higher quality and budget risk management is one of them.

  2. Modeling issues in nuclear plant fire risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siu, N.

    1989-01-01

    This paper discusses various issues associated with current models for analyzing the risk due to fires in nuclear power plants. Particular emphasis is placed on the fire growth and suppression models, these being unique to the fire portion of the overall risk analysis. Potentially significant modeling improvements are identified; also discussed are a variety of modeling issues where improvements will help the credibility of the analysis, without necessarily changing the computed risk significantly. The mechanistic modeling of fire initiation is identified as a particularly promising improvement for reducing the uncertainties in the predicted risk. 17 refs., 5 figs. 2 tabs

  3. LDC commodity risk analysis and recommendations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-01-01

    Under the current operation of the new competitive electricity market in Ontario, local distribution companies (LDCs) are required to pay the monthly invoice of the Independent Market Operator (IMO) before they collect from end-users for the consumption period covered by the invoice, with no clear guarantee that the recovery will occur. This situation creates a major cash flow problem and financial risk for LDCs and threatens the integrity and stability of the electricity market. This paper described 3 features of Ontario's competitive electricity market that create financial and commodity risk. The first problem is that there is no limit on how high prices can rise. Increases in wholesale commodity prices can result in a situation where the amount of the IMO's invoice is greater than the LDC's ability to pay at the time of receipt. Secondly, the LDC bears a 100 per cent payment obligation to the IMO administrator of the wholesale market. The third problem is that LDCs bear payment default risk from all consumers in the Ontario market, including electricity retailers. This paper presents some specific policy solutions that can protect the market from this threat. It was suggested that in order to protect the integrity of Ontario's electricity market during high prices, a policy must be drafted to address the commodity price financing risk (CPFR) issue. The policy must also define what happens if prices increase past the LDCs financing obligation limit. tabs., figs

  4. Risk Analysis and Security Countermeasure Selection

    CERN Document Server

    Norman, Thomas L

    2009-01-01

    Explains how to evaluate the appropriateness of security countermeasures, from a cost-effectiveness perspective. This title guides readers from basic principles to complex processes in a step-by-step fashion, evaluating DHS-approved risk assessment methods, including CARVER, API/NPRA, RAMCAP, and various Sandia methodologies

  5. How to Perform an Ethical Risk Analysis (eRA).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansson, Sven Ove

    2018-02-26

    Ethical analysis is often needed in the preparation of policy decisions on risk. A three-step method is proposed for performing an ethical risk analysis (eRA). In the first step, the people concerned are identified and categorized in terms of the distinct but compatible roles of being risk-exposed, a beneficiary, or a decisionmaker. In the second step, a more detailed classification of roles and role combinations is performed, and ethically problematic role combinations are identified. In the third step, further ethical deliberation takes place, with an emphasis on individual risk-benefit weighing, distributional analysis, rights analysis, and power analysis. Ethical issues pertaining to subsidiary risk roles, such as those of experts and journalists, are also treated in this phase. An eRA should supplement, not replace, a traditional risk analysis that puts emphasis on the probabilities and severities of undesirable events but does not cover ethical issues such as agency, interpersonal relationships, and justice. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

  6. Risk mitigation of shared electronic records system in campus institutions: medical social work practice in singapore.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ow Yong, Lai Meng; Tan, Amanda Wei Li; Loo, Cecilia Lay Keng; Lim, Esther Li Ping

    2014-10-01

    In 2013, the Singapore General Hospital (SGH) Campus initiated a shared electronic system where patient records and documentations were standardized and shared across institutions within the Campus. The project was initiated to enhance quality of health care, improve accessibility, and ensure integrated (as opposed to fragmented) care for best outcomes in our patients. In mitigating the risks of ICT, it was found that familiarity with guiding ethical principles, and ensuring adherence to regulatory and technical competencies in medical social work were important. The need to negotiate and maneuver in a large environment within the Campus to ensure proactive integrative process helped.

  7. Quantitative Analysis of Electron Beam Damage in Organic Thin Films

    OpenAIRE

    Leijten, Zino J. W. A.; Keizer, Arthur D. A.; de With, Gijsbertus; Friedrich, Heiner

    2017-01-01

    In transmission electron microscopy (TEM) the interaction of an electron beam with polymers such as P3HT:PCBM photovoltaic nanocomposites results in electron beam damage, which is the most important factor limiting acquisition of structural or chemical data at high spatial resolution. Beam effects can vary depending on parameters such as electron dose rate, temperature during imaging, and the presence of water and oxygen in the sample. Furthermore, beam damage will occur at different length s...

  8. Flood Risk Assessment Based On Security Deficit Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beck, J.; Metzger, R.; Hingray, B.; Musy, A.

    Risk is a human perception: a given risk may be considered as acceptable or unac- ceptable depending on the group that has to face that risk. Flood risk analysis of- ten estimates economic losses from damages, but neglects the question of accept- able/unacceptable risk. With input from land use managers, politicians and other stakeholders, risk assessment based on security deficit analysis determines objects with unacceptable risk and their degree of security deficit. Such a risk assessment methodology, initially developed by the Swiss federal authorities, is illustrated by its application on a reach of the Alzette River (Luxembourg) in the framework of the IRMA-SPONGE FRHYMAP project. Flood risk assessment always involves a flood hazard analysis, an exposed object vulnerability analysis, and an analysis combing the results of these two previous analyses. The flood hazard analysis was done with the quasi-2D hydraulic model FldPln to produce flood intensity maps. Flood intensity was determined by the water height and velocity. Object data for the vulnerability analysis, provided by the Luxembourg government, were classified according to their potential damage. Potential damage is expressed in terms of direct, human life and secondary losses. A thematic map was produced to show the object classification. Protection goals were then attributed to the object classes. Protection goals are assigned in terms of an acceptable flood intensity for a certain flood frequency. This is where input from land use managers and politicians comes into play. The perception of risk in the re- gion or country influences the protection goal assignment. Protection goals as used in Switzerland were used in this project. Thematic maps showing the protection goals of each object in the case study area for a given flood frequency were produced. Com- parison between an object's protection goal and the intensity of the flood that touched the object determine the acceptability of the risk and the

  9. Analysis of contaminants on electronic components by reflectance FTIR spectroscopy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Griffith, G.W.

    1982-09-01

    The analysis of electronic component contaminants by infrared spectroscopy is often a difficult process. Most of the contaminants are very small, which necessitates the use of microsampling techniques. Beam condensers will provide the required sensitivity but most require that the sample be removed from the substrate before analysis. Since it can be difficult and time consuming, it is usually an undesirable approach. Micro ATR work can also be exasperating, due to the difficulty of positioning the sample at the correct place under the ATR plate in order to record a spectrum. This paper describes a modified reflection beam condensor which has been adapted to a Nicolet 7199 FTIR. The sample beam is directed onto the sample surface and reflected from the substrate back to the detector. A micropositioning XYZ stage and a close-focusing telescope are used to position the contaminant directly under the infrared beam. It is possible to analyze contaminants on 1 mm wide leads surrounded by an epoxy matrix using this device. Typical spectra of contaminants found on small circuit boards are included

  10. On the validation of risk analysis-A commentary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosqvist, Tony

    2010-01-01

    Aven and Heide (2009) [1] provided interesting views on the reliability and validation of risk analysis. The four validation criteria presented are contrasted with modelling features related to the relative frequency-based and Bayesian approaches to risk analysis. In this commentary I would like to bring forth some issues on validation that partly confirm and partly suggest changes in the interpretation of the introduced validation criteria-especially, in the context of low probability-high consequence systems. The mental model of an expert in assessing probabilities is argued to be a key notion in understanding the validation of a risk analysis.

  11. Risk analysis methodologies for the transportation of radioactive materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Geffen, C.A.

    1983-05-01

    Different methodologies have evolved for consideration of each of the many steps required in performing a transportation risk analysis. Although there are techniques that attempt to consider the entire scope of the analysis in depth, most applications of risk assessment to the transportation of nuclear fuel cycle materials develop specific methodologies for only one or two parts of the analysis. The remaining steps are simplified for the analyst by narrowing the scope of the effort (such as evaluating risks for only one material, or a particular set of accident scenarios, or movement over a specific route); performing a qualitative rather than a quantitative analysis (probabilities may be simply ranked as high, medium or low, for instance); or assuming some generic, conservative conditions for potential release fractions and consequences. This paper presents a discussion of the history and present state-of-the-art of transportation risk analysis methodologies. Many reports in this area were reviewed as background for this presentation. The literature review, while not exhaustive, did result in a complete representation of the major methods used today in transportation risk analysis. These methodologies primarily include the use of severity categories based on historical accident data, the analysis of specifically assumed accident sequences for the transportation activity of interest, and the use of fault or event tree analysis. Although the focus of this work has generally been on potential impacts to public groups, some effort has been expended in the estimation of risks to occupational groups in transportation activities

  12. Risk analysis of complex hydrogen infrastructures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Markert, Frank; Marangon, Alessia; Carcassi, Marco

    2015-01-01

    Developing a future sustainable refuelling station network is the next important step to establish hydrogen as a fuel for vehicles and related services. Such stations will most likely be integrated in existing refuelling stations and result in multi-fuel storages with a variety of fuels being...... to improve the quality of biomass based fuels. Therefore, hydrogen supply and distribution chains will likely not only serve to fulfil the demands of refuelling, but may also be important for the wider electrical power and fuel industries. Based on an integrated hydrogen supply and distribution network...... assessment methodologies, and how functional models could support coherent risk and sustainability (Risk Assessment, Life Cycle Assessment /Life Cycle Costing) assessments, in order to find optimal solutions for the development of the infrastructure on a regional or national level....

  13. Analysis of power system collapse risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eleschova, Z.; Belan, A.; Cintula, B.; Smitkova, M.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper are analysed the initialization events with considering different scenarios and their impact on the power system transient stability. As an initialization event is considered a short circuit at various places of power line. In each scenario are considered protection failures (backup protection), circuit-breaker failures (breaker failure relay activation). The individual states are analysed and the power system collapse risk assessed based on the simulation experiments results (Authors)

  14. Bayesian-network-based safety risk analysis in construction projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Limao; Wu, Xianguo; Skibniewski, Miroslaw J.; Zhong, Jingbing; Lu, Yujie

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a systemic decision support approach for safety risk analysis under uncertainty in tunnel construction. Fuzzy Bayesian Networks (FBN) is used to investigate causal relationships between tunnel-induced damage and its influential variables based upon the risk/hazard mechanism analysis. Aiming to overcome limitations on the current probability estimation, an expert confidence indicator is proposed to ensure the reliability of the surveyed data for fuzzy probability assessment of basic risk factors. A detailed fuzzy-based inference procedure is developed, which has a capacity of implementing deductive reasoning, sensitivity analysis and abductive reasoning. The “3σ criterion” is adopted to calculate the characteristic values of a triangular fuzzy number in the probability fuzzification process, and the α-weighted valuation method is adopted for defuzzification. The construction safety analysis progress is extended to the entire life cycle of risk-prone events, including the pre-accident, during-construction continuous and post-accident control. A typical hazard concerning the tunnel leakage in the construction of Wuhan Yangtze Metro Tunnel in China is presented as a case study, in order to verify the applicability of the proposed approach. The results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed approach and its application potential. A comparison of advantages and disadvantages between FBN and fuzzy fault tree analysis (FFTA) as risk analysis tools is also conducted. The proposed approach can be used to provide guidelines for safety analysis and management in construction projects, and thus increase the likelihood of a successful project in a complex environment. - Highlights: • A systemic Bayesian network based approach for safety risk analysis is developed. • An expert confidence indicator for probability fuzzification is proposed. • Safety risk analysis progress is extended to entire life cycle of risk-prone events. • A typical

  15. Environmental risk assessment in GMO analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pirondini, Andrea; Marmiroli, Nelson

    2010-01-01

    Genetically modified or engineered organisms (GMOs, GEOs) are utilised in agriculture, expressing traits of interest, such as insect or herbicide resistance. Soybean, maize, cotton and oilseed rape are the GM crops with the largest acreage in the world. The distribution of GM acreage in the different countries is related with the different positions concerning labelling of GMO products: based on the principle of substantial equivalence, or rather based on the precautionary principle. The paper provides an overview on how the risks associated with release of GMO in the environments can be analysed and predicted, in view of a possible coexistence of GM and non-GM organisms in agriculture.Risk assessment procedures, both qualitative and quantitative, are compared in the context of application to GMOs considering also legislation requirements (Directive 2001/18/EC). Criteria and measurable properties to assess harm for human health and environmental safety are listed, and the possible consequences are evaluated in terms of significance.Finally, a mapping of the possible risks deriving from GMO release is reported, focusing on gene transfer to related species, horizontal gene transfer, direct and indirect effects on non target organisms, development of resistance in target organisms, and effects on biodiversity.

  16. TRANSPARENCY IN ELECTRONIC BUSINESS NEGOTIATIONS – EVIDENCE BASED ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radoslav Delina

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: In current economy, where ICT plays a crucial role for being competitive and effective, businesses are facing higher pressures of flexibility and efficiency than ever before. Transparency is often considered as a suitable mechanism for better market prices and more efficient market environment. Electronic business environment provides the possibility to set up more transparent environment and bring higher competitiveness and efficiency on the market. The paper analyse the impact of transparency on prices in e-procurement.Methodology: Reverse auctions are considered as transparent tool simulating in partial level real competition. Together, it allows to examine several levels of transparency set up in auction negotiation process. The impact of transparency on final prices was analysed on real data using relation based analysis were different situations of transparency set up is compared against achieved final price.Findings: Research results based on real data shows, that generally, the transparency in electronic reverse auction can lead to more negative prices agreed by purchasers as current scientific and commercial promotions.Research limitation: Significance of research results is limited due to still low readiness and skills of e-procurers. The validation of results is needed to realized within longer period of time and from environments with different level of e-readiness. Together, it reveal that transparency is more complex issue where the significance of transparency can reveal its sense in some specific situations on the market and negotiation.Value of paper: Evidenced based research reveal some controversy results which support new scientific efforts in microeconomics and socio-economic impact of ICT fields. Together, it affects real practitioners in way how to use and perceive claimed impact of reverse auction solutions.

  17. Analysis of Alternatives for Risk Assessment Methodologies and Tools

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nachtigal, Noel M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). System Analytics; Fruetel, Julia A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Gleason, Nathaniel J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Helms, Jovana [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Imbro, Dennis Raymond [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Sumner, Matthew C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis

    2013-10-01

    The purpose of this document is to provide a basic overview and understanding of risk assessment methodologies and tools from the literature and to assess the suitability of these methodologies and tools for cyber risk assessment. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) performed this review in support of risk modeling activities performed for the Stakeholder Engagement and Cyber Infrastructure Resilience (SECIR) division of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Office of Cybersecurity and Communications (CS&C). The set of methodologies and tools covered in this document is not intended to be exhaustive; instead, it focuses on those that are commonly used in the risk assessment community. The classification of methodologies and tools was performed by a group of analysts with experience in risk analysis and cybersecurity, and the resulting analysis of alternatives has been tailored to address the needs of a cyber risk assessment.

  18. A Comparative Health Risk Assessment of Electronic Cigarettes and Conventional Cigarettes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinsong Chen

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Background: Although some studies have identified hazardous substances in electronic cigarette (EC liquids and emissions, there is limited information about the health risks of using ECs. Methods: In this study, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA health risk assessment model and findings of a literature review were used to determine and profile hazards. Focus was put on the toxicants reported in the literature on conventional cigarette (CC smoke that most strongly associated with adverse health effects. To evaluate their health risks, dose-response relationships and standard-use conditions were used to estimate average hazard exposures and to calculate the overall health risks of ECs and CCs, benchmarked against international guideline levels for each hazard. Results: Four hazards (acrolein, diethylene glycol, propylene glycol and cadmium reported in EC emissions and seven hazards (acetaldehyde, acrolein, formaldehyde, cadmium, CO, 4-(methylnitrosamino-1-(3-pyridyl-1-butanone (NNK, N′-nitrosonornicotine (NNN reported in CC emissions had maximum exposure levels higher than the guideline levels. Two hazards (acrolein, propylene glycol in EC emissions and five hazards (acetaldehyde, acrolein, formaldehyde, cadmium, NNN in CC emissions had average exposure levels higher than the guideline levels. Conclusions: Based on the conditions of use, ECs should be a safer nicotine-delivery product than CCs.

  19. Work program analysis - defining the capability/risk plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hrinivich, W.A.

    2004-01-01

    Bruce Power has developed and implemented an analysis methodology (Work Program Analysis) to assess and address corporate business risk associated with work group capability. Work Program Analysis is proving to be an excellent tool for identifying and supporting key business decisions facing the line and senior management at Bruce Power. The following describes the methodology, its application and the results achieved. (author)

  20. A new kernel discriminant analysis framework for electronic nose recognition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Lei; Tian, Feng-Chun

    2014-01-01

    Graphical abstract: - Highlights: • This paper proposes a new discriminant analysis framework for feature extraction and recognition. • The principle of the proposed NDA is derived mathematically. • The NDA framework is coupled with kernel PCA for classification. • The proposed KNDA is compared with state of the art e-Nose recognition methods. • The proposed KNDA shows the best performance in e-Nose experiments. - Abstract: Electronic nose (e-Nose) technology based on metal oxide semiconductor gas sensor array is widely studied for detection of gas components. This paper proposes a new discriminant analysis framework (NDA) for dimension reduction and e-Nose recognition. In a NDA, the between-class and the within-class Laplacian scatter matrix are designed from sample to sample, respectively, to characterize the between-class separability and the within-class compactness by seeking for discriminant matrix to simultaneously maximize the between-class Laplacian scatter and minimize the within-class Laplacian scatter. In terms of the linear separability in high dimensional kernel mapping space and the dimension reduction of principal component analysis (PCA), an effective kernel PCA plus NDA method (KNDA) is proposed for rapid detection of gas mixture components by an e-Nose. The NDA framework is derived in this paper as well as the specific implementations of the proposed KNDA method in training and recognition process. The KNDA is examined on the e-Nose datasets of six kinds of gas components, and compared with state of the art e-Nose classification methods. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed KNDA method shows the best performance with average recognition rate and total recognition rate as 94.14% and 95.06% which leads to a promising feature extraction and multi-class recognition in e-Nose

  1. Urban flooding and health risk analysis by use of quantitative microbial risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Signe Tanja

    D thesis is to identify the limitations and possibilities for optimising microbial risk assessments of urban flooding through more evidence-based solutions, including quantitative microbial data and hydrodynamic water quality models. The focus falls especially on the problem of data needs and the causes......, but also when wading through a flooded area. The results in this thesis have brought microbial risk assessments one step closer to more uniform and repeatable risk analysis by using actual and relevant measured data and hydrodynamic water quality models to estimate the risk from flooding caused...... are expected to increase in the future. To ensure public health during extreme rainfall, solutions are needed, but limited knowledge on microbial water quality, and related health risks, makes it difficult to implement microbial risk analysis as a part of the basis for decision making. The main aim of this Ph...

  2. Environmental risk analysis for nanomaterials: Review and evaluation of frameworks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grieger, Khara Deanne; Linkov, Igor; Hansen, Steffen Foss

    2012-01-01

    to occupational settings with minor environmental considerations, and most have not been thoroughly tested on a wide range of NM. Care should also be taken when selecting the most appropriate risk analysis strategy for a given risk context. Given this, we recommend a multi-faceted approach to assess...... the environmental risks of NM as well as increased applications and testing of the proposed frameworks for different NM....

  3. HVAC fault tree analysis for WIPP integrated risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirby, P.; Iacovino, J.

    1990-01-01

    In order to evaluate the public health risk from operation of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) due to potential radioactive releases, a probabilistic risk assessment of waste handling operations was conducted. One major aspect of this risk assessment involved fault tree analysis of the plant heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, which comprise the final barrier between waste handling operations and the environment. 1 refs., 1 tab

  4. WE-B-BRC-02: Risk Analysis and Incident Learning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fraass, B. [Cedars Sinai Medical Center (United States)

    2016-06-15

    Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. We therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation oncology

  5. WE-B-BRC-02: Risk Analysis and Incident Learning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fraass, B.

    2016-01-01

    Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. We therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation oncology

  6. Physicians' acceptance of electronic medical records exchange: an extension of the decomposed TPB model with institutional trust and perceived risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsieh, Pi-Jung

    2015-01-01

    Electronic medical records (EMRs) exchange improves clinical quality and reduces medical costs. However, few studies address the antecedent factors of physicians' intentions to use EMR exchange. Based on institutional trust and perceived risk integrated with the decomposed theory of planned behavior (TPB) model, we propose a theoretical model to explain the intention of physicians to use an EMR exchange system. We conducted a field survey in Taiwan to collect data from physicians who had experience using the EMR exchange systems. A valid sample of 191 responses was collected for data analysis. To test the proposed research model, we employed structural equation modeling using the partial least squares method. The study findings show that the following five factors have a significant influence on the physicians' intentions to use EMR exchange systems: (a) attitude; (b) subjective norm; (c) perceived behavior control; (d) institutional trust; and (e) perceived risk. These five factors are predictable by perceived usefulness, perceived ease of use, and compatibility, interpersonal and governmental influence, facilitating conditions and self-efficacy, situational normality and structural assurance, and institutional trust, respectively. The results also indicate that institutional trust and perceived risk integrated with the decomposed TPB model improve the prediction of physician's intentions to use EMR exchange. The results of this study indicate that our research model effectively predicts the intention of physicians to use EMR exchange, and provides valuable implications for academics and practitioners. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. "RISK ASSESSMENT OF DEVELOPING DISTAL UPPER EXTREMITY DISORDERS BY STRAIN INDEX METHOD IN AN ASSEMBLING ELECTRONIC INDUSTRY"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Pourmahabadian

    2005-08-01

    Full Text Available The strain index (SI is a substantial advancement and has been devised to analyze ergonomic risks for distal upper extremity (DUE disorders. This semi-quantitative tool allows for the measurement of hazards and does not require unduly lengthy training to begin to use it accurately. Uses of the strain index include analysis of a current job to assess whether it is safe or hazardous, quantification of the risks, and assistance in the initial design of a job or in the redesign of a job. The aim of this study was to assess and analyze risk of developing DUE disorders in different jobs as well as hazard classification in an assembling electronic industry through SI method. Also, DUE disorders prevalence, work-related absenteeism and turnover extracted from SI results were compared and assessed by those obtained by Nordic musculoskeletal questionnaire (NMQ. The findings of this study showed that more than 50% of investigated jobs are categorized as "hazardous" and there is a significant difference between SI mean in hazardous and safe jobs (P < 0.0001. In addition, significant difference was found between prevalence of DUE disorders in "safe" and "hazardous" jobs (P < 0.049. But, no significant difference (P = 0.3 was obtained between mean absenteeism in "safe" and hazardous jobs. Also, no significant difference statistically was found between turnover in "safe" and hazardous jobs (X2 = 0.133, P = 1 and high prevalence of DUE disorders is due to low turnover rate of workers.

  8. Applying Multi-Criteria Analysis Methods for Fire Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pushkina Julia

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to prove the application of multi-criteria analysis methods for optimisation of fire risk identification and assessment process. The object of this research is fire risk and risk assessment. The subject of the research is studying the application of analytic hierarchy process for modelling and influence assessment of various fire risk factors. Results of research conducted by the authors can be used by insurance companies to perform the detailed assessment of fire risks on the object and to calculate a risk extra charge to an insurance premium; by the state supervisory institutions to determine the compliance of a condition of object with requirements of regulations; by real state owners and investors to carry out actions for decrease in degree of fire risks and minimisation of possible losses.

  9. DYNAMIC HYBRIDS UNDER SOLVENCY II: RISK ANALYSIS AND MODIFICATION POSSIBILITIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Maier

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we investigate the new and standardized European system of supervisory called Solvency II. In essence, asymmetric distribution of information between policyholder and insurer triggered this new regulation which aims at better protecting policyholders. Its three-pillar model is about to challenge both, insurers as well as policyholders. The first pillar includes quantitative aspects, the second pillar contains qualitative aspects and the third pillar comprises market transparency and reporting obligations. Underwriting risks, the default risk of a bank and market risks can be identified for the dynamic hybrid. Solvency II covers all these risks in the first pillar and insurers shall deposit sufficient risk-bearing capital. In our analysis, we first identify the dynamic hybrid specific risks under the Solvency II regime und then develop product modifications to reduce this risk.

  10. Risk and safety analysis of nuclear systems

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lee, John C; McCormick, Norman J

    2011-01-01

    ...), and failure modes of systems. All of this material is general enough that it could be used in non-nuclear applications, although there is an emphasis placed on the analysis of nuclear systems...

  11. Process and device of elementary and chemical analysis of a sample through a spectral analysis of the secondary electron energies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Le Gressus, Claude; Massignon, Daniel; Sopizet, Rene.

    1975-01-01

    The present invention relates to a method of chemical and elementary analysis of samples through a spectral analysis of secondary electrons (Auger electrons) emitted from said sample under a primary monokinetic electron beam concentrated on its surface. Said method is characterized in that the intensity of the primary monokinetic electron beam emitted from an electron gun is modulated at a frequency ω; and in that the secondary electrons of energy E emitted from the sample are then collected. A reference voltage corresponding to the modulation in intensity of the primary electron beam is applied at the input of a phase sensitive detector together with a voltage proportional to the intensity of the flux of said collected secondary electrons to obtain at the output of said detector a voltage proportional to the number of the secondary electrons of energy E. The secondary emission energy spectrum of the sample is then plotted [fr

  12. The development of a 3D risk analysis method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    I, Yet-Pole; Cheng, Te-Lung

    2008-05-01

    Much attention has been paid to the quantitative risk analysis (QRA) research in recent years due to more and more severe disasters that have happened in the process industries. Owing to its calculation complexity, very few software, such as SAFETI, can really make the risk presentation meet the practice requirements. However, the traditional risk presentation method, like the individual risk contour in SAFETI, is mainly based on the consequence analysis results of dispersion modeling, which usually assumes that the vapor cloud disperses over a constant ground roughness on a flat terrain with no obstructions and concentration fluctuations, which is quite different from the real situations of a chemical process plant. All these models usually over-predict the hazardous regions in order to maintain their conservativeness, which also increases the uncertainty of the simulation results. On the other hand, a more rigorous model such as the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model can resolve the previous limitations; however, it cannot resolve the complexity of risk calculations. In this research, a conceptual three-dimensional (3D) risk calculation method was proposed via the combination of results of a series of CFD simulations with some post-processing procedures to obtain the 3D individual risk iso-surfaces. It is believed that such technique will not only be limited to risk analysis at ground level, but also be extended into aerial, submarine, or space risk analyses in the near future.

  13. Assessment of major nuclear technologies with decision and risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Winterfeldt, D. von

    1995-01-01

    Selecting technologies for major nuclear programs involves several complexities, including multiple stakeholders, multiple conflicting objectives, uncertainties, and risk. In addition, the programmatic risks related to the schedule, cost, and performance of these technologies often become major issues in the selection process. This paper describes a decision analysis approach for addressing these complexities in a logical manner

  14. The JPL Cost Risk Analysis Approach that Incorporates Engineering Realism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harmon, Corey C.; Warfield, Keith R.; Rosenberg, Leigh S.

    2006-01-01

    This paper discusses the JPL Cost Engineering Group (CEG) cost risk analysis approach that accounts for all three types of cost risk. It will also describe the evaluation of historical cost data upon which this method is based. This investigation is essential in developing a method that is rooted in engineering realism and produces credible, dependable results to aid decision makers.

  15. The use of current risk analysis tools evaluated towards preventing external domino accidents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reniers, Genserik L L; Dullaert, W.; Ale, B. J.M.; Soudan, K.

    Risk analysis is an essential tool for company safety policy. Risk analysis consists of identifying and evaluating all possible risks. The efficiency of risk analysis tools depends on the rigueur of identifying and evaluating all possible risks. The diversity in risk analysis procedures is such that

  16. Quasi-linear analysis of the extraordinary electron wave destabilized by runaway electrons

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pokol, G. I.; Kómár, A.; Budai, A. [Department of Nuclear Techniques, Budapest University of Technology and Economics, Budapest (Hungary); Stahl, A.; Fülöp, T. [Department of Applied Physics, Chalmers University of Technology, Göteborg (Sweden)

    2014-10-15

    Runaway electrons with strongly anisotropic distributions present in post-disruption tokamak plasmas can destabilize the extraordinary electron (EXEL) wave. The present work investigates the dynamics of the quasi-linear evolution of the EXEL instability for a range of different plasma parameters using a model runaway distribution function valid for highly relativistic runaway electron beams produced primarily by the avalanche process. Simulations show a rapid pitch-angle scattering of the runaway electrons in the high energy tail on the 100–1000 μs time scale. Due to the wave-particle interaction, a modification to the synchrotron radiation spectrum emitted by the runaway electron population is foreseen, exposing a possible experimental detection method for such an interaction.

  17. Simulation Approach to Mission Risk and Reliability Analysis, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — It is proposed to develop and demonstrate an integrated total-system risk and reliability analysis approach that is based on dynamic, probabilistic simulation. This...

  18. Risk and train control : a framework for analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2001-01-01

    This report develops and demonstrates a framework for examining the effects of various train control strategies on some of the major risks of railroad operations. Analysis of hypothetical 1200-mile corridor identified the main factors that increase r...

  19. Vulnerability and Risk Analysis Program: Overview of Assessment Methodology

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2001-01-01

    .... Over the last three years, a team of national laboratory experts, working in partnership with the energy industry, has successfully applied the methodology as part of OCIP's Vulnerability and Risk Analysis Program (VRAP...

  20. Risk and Interdependencies in Critical Infrastructures A Guideline for Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Utne, Ingrid; Vatn, Jørn

    2012-01-01

    Today’s society is completely dependent on critical networks such as  water supply, sewage, electricity, ICT and transportation. Risk and vulnerability analyses are needed to grasp the impact of threats and hazards. However, these become quite complex as there are strong interdependencies both within and between infrastructure systems. Risk and Interdependencies in Critical Infrastructures: A  guideline for analysis provides methods for analyzing risks and interdependencies of critical infrastructures.  A number of analysis approaches are described and are adapted to each of these infrastructures. Various approaches are also revised, and all are supported by several examples and illustrations. Particular emphasis is given to the analysis of various interdependencies that often exist between the infrastructures.  Risk and Interdependencies in Critical Infrastructures: A  guideline for analysis provides a good tool to identify the hazards that are threatening your infrastructures, and will enhance the un...

  1. Chemical analysis and potential health risks of hookah charcoal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Elsayed, Yehya, E-mail: yelsayed@aus.edu; Dalibalta, Sarah, E-mail: sdalibalta@aus.edu; Abu-Farha, Nedal

    2016-11-01

    Hookah (waterpipe) smoking is a very common practice that has spread globally. There is growing evidence on the hazardous consequences of smoking hookah, with studies indicating that its harmful effects are comparable to cigarette smoking if not worse. Charcoal is commonly used as a heating source for hookah smoke. Although charcoal briquettes are thought to be one of the major contributors to toxicity, their composition and impact on the smoke generated remains largely unidentified. This study aims to analyze the elemental composition of five different raw synthetic and natural charcoals by using Carbon-Hydrogen-Nitrogen (CHN) analysis, inductively coupled plasma (ICP), and scanning electron microscopy coupled with energy dispersive X-Ray spectrometry (SEM-EDS). Elemental analysis showed that the raw charcoals contain heavy metals such as zinc, iron, cadmium, vanadium, aluminum, lead, chromium, manganese and cobalt at concentrations similar, if not higher than, cigarettes. In addition, thermal desorption-gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (TD-GC–MS) was used to analyze the chemical composition of the smoke produced from burning the charcoal samples. The smoke emitted from charcoal was found to be the source of numerous compounds which could be hazardous to health. A total of seven carcinogens, 39 central nervous system depressants and 31 respiratory irritants were identified. - Highlights: • Hookah charcoals, mainly synthetic brands, contains trace/heavy metals in concentrations exceeding those in cigarettes. • The concentration of lead in synthetic charcoal briquettes may impose adverse effects on human health. • The amount of nitrogen in synthetic charcoal is comparable to that reported in cigarettes. • Chemical profiling of smoke emitted from hookah charcoal reveals many compounds associated with potential health risks.

  2. Chemical analysis and potential health risks of hookah charcoal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elsayed, Yehya; Dalibalta, Sarah; Abu-Farha, Nedal

    2016-01-01

    Hookah (waterpipe) smoking is a very common practice that has spread globally. There is growing evidence on the hazardous consequences of smoking hookah, with studies indicating that its harmful effects are comparable to cigarette smoking if not worse. Charcoal is commonly used as a heating source for hookah smoke. Although charcoal briquettes are thought to be one of the major contributors to toxicity, their composition and impact on the smoke generated remains largely unidentified. This study aims to analyze the elemental composition of five different raw synthetic and natural charcoals by using Carbon-Hydrogen-Nitrogen (CHN) analysis, inductively coupled plasma (ICP), and scanning electron microscopy coupled with energy dispersive X-Ray spectrometry (SEM-EDS). Elemental analysis showed that the raw charcoals contain heavy metals such as zinc, iron, cadmium, vanadium, aluminum, lead, chromium, manganese and cobalt at concentrations similar, if not higher than, cigarettes. In addition, thermal desorption-gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (TD-GC–MS) was used to analyze the chemical composition of the smoke produced from burning the charcoal samples. The smoke emitted from charcoal was found to be the source of numerous compounds which could be hazardous to health. A total of seven carcinogens, 39 central nervous system depressants and 31 respiratory irritants were identified. - Highlights: • Hookah charcoals, mainly synthetic brands, contains trace/heavy metals in concentrations exceeding those in cigarettes. • The concentration of lead in synthetic charcoal briquettes may impose adverse effects on human health. • The amount of nitrogen in synthetic charcoal is comparable to that reported in cigarettes. • Chemical profiling of smoke emitted from hookah charcoal reveals many compounds associated with potential health risks.

  3. Spent fuel pool risk analysis for the Dukovany NPP

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hust' ak, S.; Jaros, M.; Kubicek, J. [UJV Rez, a.s., Husinec-Rez (Czech Republic)

    2013-07-01

    UJV Rez, a.s. maintains a Living Probabilistic Safety Assessment (Living PSA) program for Dukovany Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) in the Czech Republic. This project has been established as a framework for activities related to risk assessment and to support for risk-informed decision making at this plant. The most extensively used PSA application at Dukovany NPP is risk monitoring of instantaneous (point-in-time) risk during plant operation, especially for the purpose of configuration risk management during plant scheduled outages to avoid risk significant configurations. The scope of PSA for Dukovany NPP includes also determination of a risk contribution from spent fuel pool (SFP) operation to provide recommendations for the prevention and mitigation of SFP accidents and to be applicable for configuration risk management. This paper describes the analysis of internal initiating events (IEs) in PSA for Dukovany NPP, which can contribute to the risk from SFP operation. The analysis of those IEs was done more thoroughly in the PSA for Dukovany NPP in order to be used in instantaneous risk monitoring. (orig.)

  4. Risk of chromosomal abnormalities in early spontaneous abortion after assisted reproductive technology: a meta-analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun-Zhen Qin

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Studies on the risk of chromosomal abnormalities in early spontaneous abortion after assisted reproductive technology (ART are relatively controversial and insufficient. Thus, to obtain a more precise evaluation of the risk of embryonic chromosomal abnormalities in first-trimester miscarriage after ART, we performed a meta-analysis of all available case-control studies relating to the cytogenetic analysis of chromosomal abnormalities in first-trimester miscarriage after ART. METHODS: Literature search in the electronic databases MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL based on the established strategy. Meta-regression, subgroup analysis, and Galbraith plots were conducted to explore the sources of heterogeneity. RESULTS: A total of 15 studies with 1,896 cases and 1,186 controls relevant to the risk of chromosomal abnormalities in first- trimester miscarriage after ART, and 8 studies with 601 cases and 602 controls evaluating frequency of chromosome anomaly for maternal age≥35 versus <35 were eligible for the meta-analysis. No statistical difference was found in risk of chromosomally abnormal miscarriage compared to natural conception and the different types of ART utilized, whereas the risk of fetal aneuploidy significantly increased with maternal age≥35 (OR 2.88, 95% CI: 1.74-4.77. CONCLUSIONS: ART treatment does not present an increased risk for chromosomal abnormalities occurring in a first trimester miscarriage, but incidence of fetal aneuploidy could increase significantly with advancing maternal age.

  5. Common pitfalls in statistical analysis: Absolute risk reduction, relative risk reduction, and number needed to treat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranganathan, Priya; Pramesh, C. S.; Aggarwal, Rakesh

    2016-01-01

    In the previous article in this series on common pitfalls in statistical analysis, we looked at the difference between risk and odds. Risk, which refers to the probability of occurrence of an event or outcome, can be defined in absolute or relative terms. Understanding what these measures represent is essential for the accurate interpretation of study results. PMID:26952180

  6. H15-42: CFD analysis for risk analysis in urban environments - Tilburg city case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hulsbosch-Dam, C.; Mack, A.; Ratingen, S. van; Rosmuller, N.; Trijssenaar, I.

    2013-01-01

    For risk analysis studies, relatively simple dispersion models are generally applied, such as Gaussian dispersion and dense gas dispersion models. For rail transport risk analyses in the Netherlands, fixed consequence distances are applied for various standard scenarios of hazardous materials

  7. Instability risk analysis and risk assessment system establishment of underground storage caverns in bedded salt rock

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jing, Wenjun; Zhao, Yan

    2018-02-01

    Stability is an important part of geotechnical engineering research. The operating experiences of underground storage caverns in salt rock all around the world show that the stability of the caverns is the key problem of safe operation. Currently, the combination of theoretical analysis and numerical simulation are the mainly adopts method of reserve stability analysis. This paper introduces the concept of risk into the stability analysis of underground geotechnical structure, and studies the instability of underground storage cavern in salt rock from the perspective of risk analysis. Firstly, the definition and classification of cavern instability risk is proposed, and the damage mechanism is analyzed from the mechanical angle. Then the main stability evaluating indicators of cavern instability risk are proposed, and an evaluation method of cavern instability risk is put forward. Finally, the established cavern instability risk assessment system is applied to the analysis and prediction of cavern instability risk after 30 years of operation in a proposed storage cavern group in the Huai’an salt mine. This research can provide a useful theoretical base for the safe operation and management of underground storage caverns in salt rock.

  8. Environmental risk analysis of hazardous material rail transportation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saat, Mohd Rapik; Werth, Charles J.; Schaeffer, David; Yoon, Hongkyu; Barkan, Christopher P.L.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Comprehensive, nationwide risk assessment of hazardous material rail transportation. • Application of a novel environmental (i.e. soil and groundwater) consequence model. • Cleanup cost and total shipment distance are the most significant risk factors. • Annual risk varies from $20,000 to $560,000 for different products. • Provides information on the risk cost associated with specific product shipments. -- Abstract: An important aspect of railroad environmental risk management involves tank car transportation of hazardous materials. This paper describes a quantitative, environmental risk analysis of rail transportation of a group of light, non-aqueous-phase liquid (LNAPL) chemicals commonly transported by rail in North America. The Hazardous Materials Transportation Environmental Consequence Model (HMTECM) was used in conjunction with a geographic information system (GIS) analysis of environmental characteristics to develop probabilistic estimates of exposure to different spill scenarios along the North American rail network. The risk analysis incorporated the estimated clean-up cost developed using the HMTECM, route-specific probability distributions of soil type and depth to groundwater, annual traffic volume, railcar accident rate, and tank car safety features, to estimate the nationwide annual risk of transporting each product. The annual risk per car-mile (car-km) and per ton-mile (ton-km) was also calculated to enable comparison between chemicals and to provide information on the risk cost associated with shipments of these products. The analysis and the methodology provide a quantitative approach that will enable more effective management of the environmental risk of transporting hazardous materials

  9. Environmental risk analysis of hazardous material rail transportation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saat, Mohd Rapik, E-mail: mohdsaat@illinois.edu [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1243 Newmark Civil Engineering Laboratory, 205 North Mathews Avenue, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); Werth, Charles J.; Schaeffer, David [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1243 Newmark Civil Engineering Laboratory, 205 North Mathews Avenue, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); Yoon, Hongkyu [Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM 87123 (United States); Barkan, Christopher P.L. [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1243 Newmark Civil Engineering Laboratory, 205 North Mathews Avenue, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States)

    2014-01-15

    Highlights: • Comprehensive, nationwide risk assessment of hazardous material rail transportation. • Application of a novel environmental (i.e. soil and groundwater) consequence model. • Cleanup cost and total shipment distance are the most significant risk factors. • Annual risk varies from $20,000 to $560,000 for different products. • Provides information on the risk cost associated with specific product shipments. -- Abstract: An important aspect of railroad environmental risk management involves tank car transportation of hazardous materials. This paper describes a quantitative, environmental risk analysis of rail transportation of a group of light, non-aqueous-phase liquid (LNAPL) chemicals commonly transported by rail in North America. The Hazardous Materials Transportation Environmental Consequence Model (HMTECM) was used in conjunction with a geographic information system (GIS) analysis of environmental characteristics to develop probabilistic estimates of exposure to different spill scenarios along the North American rail network. The risk analysis incorporated the estimated clean-up cost developed using the HMTECM, route-specific probability distributions of soil type and depth to groundwater, annual traffic volume, railcar accident rate, and tank car safety features, to estimate the nationwide annual risk of transporting each product. The annual risk per car-mile (car-km) and per ton-mile (ton-km) was also calculated to enable comparison between chemicals and to provide information on the risk cost associated with shipments of these products. The analysis and the methodology provide a quantitative approach that will enable more effective management of the environmental risk of transporting hazardous materials.

  10. Probabilistic risk analysis of Angra-1 reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spivak, R.C.; Collussi, I.; Silva, M.C. da; Onusic Junior, J.

    1986-01-01

    The first phase of probabilistic study for safety analysis and operational analysis of Angra-1 reactor is presented. The study objectives and uses are: to support decisions about safety problems; to identify operational and/or project failures; to amplify operator qualification tests to include accidents in addition to project base; to provide informations to be used in development and/or review of operation procedures in emergency, test and maintenance procedures; to obtain experience for data collection about abnormal accurences; utilization of study results for training operators; and training of evaluation and reliability techniques for the personnel of CNEN and FURNAS. (M.C.K.) [pt

  11. ANALYSIS OF RISK FACTORS ECTOPIC PREGNANCY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Budi Santoso

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Ectopic pregnancy is a pregnancy with extrauterine implantation. This situation is gynecologic emergency that contributes to maternal mortality. Therefore, early recognition, based on identification of the causes of ectopic pregnancy risk factors, is needed. Methods: The design descriptive observational. The samples were pregnant women who had ectopic pregnancy at Maternity Room, Emergency Unit, Dr. Soetomo Hospital, Surabaya, from 1 July 2008 to 1 July 2010. Sampling technique was total sampling using medical records. Result: Patients with ectopic pregnancy were 99 individuals out of 2090 pregnant women who searched for treatment in Dr. Soetomo Hospital. However, only 29 patients were accompanied with traceable risk factors. Discussion:. Most ectopic pregnancies were in the age group of 26-30 years, comprising 32 patients (32.32%, then in age groups of 31–35 years as many as 25 patients (25.25%, 18 patients in age group 21–25 years (18.18%, 17 patients in age group 36–40 years (17.17%, 4 patients in age group 41 years and more (4.04%, and the least was in age group of 16–20 years with 3 patients (3.03%. A total of 12 patients with ectopic pregnancy (41.38% had experience of abortion and 6 patients (20.69% each in groups of patients with ectopic pregnancy who used family planning, in those who used family planning as well as ectopic pregnancy patients with history of surgery. There were 2 patients (6.90% of the group of patients ectopic pregnancy who had history of surgery and history of abortion. The incidence rate of ectopic pregnancy was 4.73%, mostly in the second gravidity (34.34%, whereas the nulliparous have the highest prevalence of 39.39%. Acquired risk factors, i.e. history of operations was 10.34%, patients with family planning 20.69%, patients with history of abortion 41.38%, patients with history of abortion and operation 6.90% patients with family and history of abortion was 20.69%.

  12. Cigarette Smoking and Electronic Cigarettes Use: A Meta-Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meng Wang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Increasing evidence indicates that cigarette smoking is a strong predictor of electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes use, particularly in adolescents, yet the effects has not be systematically reviewed and quantified. Relevant studies were retrieved by searching three databases up to June 2015. The meta-analysis results were presented as pooled odds ratios (ORs with 95% confidence intervals (CIs calculated by a random-effects model. Current smokers were more likely to use e-cigarette currently (OR: 14.89, 95% CI: 7.70–28.78 and the probability was greater in adolescents than in adults (39.13 vs. 7.51. The probability of ever e-cigarettes use was significantly increased in smokers (OR: 14.67, 95% CI: 11.04–19.49. Compared with ever smokers and adults, the probabilities were much greater in current smokers (16.10 vs. 9.47 and adolescents (15.19 vs. 14.30, respectively. Cigarette smoking increases the probability of e-cigarettes use, especially in current smokers and adolescents.

  13. Bragg's Law diffraction simulations for electron backscatter diffraction analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kacher, Josh; Landon, Colin; Adams, Brent L.; Fullwood, David

    2009-01-01

    In 2006, Angus Wilkinson introduced a cross-correlation-based electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) texture analysis system capable of measuring lattice rotations and elastic strains to high resolution. A variation of the cross-correlation method is introduced using Bragg's Law-based simulated EBSD patterns as strain free reference patterns that facilitates the use of the cross-correlation method with polycrystalline materials. The lattice state is found by comparing simulated patterns to collected patterns at a number of regions on the pattern using the cross-correlation function and calculating the deformation from the measured shifts of each region. A new pattern can be simulated at the deformed state, and the process can be iterated a number of times to converge on the absolute lattice state. By analyzing an iteratively rotated single crystal silicon sample and recovering the rotation, this method is shown to have an angular resolution of ∼0.04 o and an elastic strain resolution of ∼7e-4. As an example of applications, elastic strain and curvature measurements are used to estimate the dislocation density in a single grain of a compressed polycrystalline Mg-based AZ91 alloy.

  14. Lab-scale thermal analysis of electronic waste plastics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Wu-Jun; Tian, Ke; Jiang, Hong, E-mail: jhong@ustc.edu.cn; Yu, Han-Qing

    2016-06-05

    Highlights: • We provided the experimental evidence that WEEE can be recovered by pyrolysis method. • We explored the thermochemical behaviors of WEEE using online TG–FTIR–MS technology. • The intramolecular oxygen atoms play a pivotal role in the formation of PBDD/Fs. - Abstract: In this work, we experimentally revealed the thermochemical decomposition pathway of Decabromodiphenyl ethane (DBDPE) and tetrabromobisphenol A (TBBPA) containing electronic waste plastics using an online thermogravimetric–fourier transform infrared–mass spectroscopy (TG–FTIR–MS) system, a high resolution gas chromatography/high resolution mass (HRGC–MS) spectroscopy, and a fixed-bed reactor. We found the distribution and species of produced bromides can be easily controlled by adjusting pyrolytic temperature, which is particularly crucial to their recycle. From the analysis of the liquid and solid phase obtained from the fixed-bed reactor, we proposed that the ·Br radicals formed during the pyrolysis process may be captured by organic species derived from the depolymerization of plastics to form brominated compounds or by the inorganic species in the plastics, and that these species remained in the char residue after pyrolysis. Our work for the first time demonstrates intramolecular oxygen atoms play a pivotal role in the formation of PBDD/Fs that pyrolysis of oxygen-free BFRs is PBDD/Fs-free, whereas pyrolysis of oxygen-containing BFRs is PBDD/Fs-reduced.

  15. Developments In Electronic Speckle Pattern Interferometry For Automotive Vibration Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, Jeremy C.; Buckberry, Clive H.; Jones, Julian D. C.; Pannell, Chris N.

    1989-01-01

    The incorporation of monomode fibre optics into an argon ion powered Electronic Speckle Pattern Interferometer (ESPI) is reported. The system, consisting of an optics assembly linked to the laser and a CCD camera transceiver, flexibly connected by 40m of monomode fibre optic cable to the optics, has been used to analyse the modal behaviour of structures up to 5m X 3m X 2m in size. Phase modulation of the reference beam in order to operate in a heterodyne mode has been implemented using a piezo-electric crystal operating on the monomode fibre. A new mode of operation - sequential time-average subtraction - and the results of a new processing algorithm are also reported. Their implementation enables speckle free, time-average vibration maps to be generated in real-time on large, unstable structures. Example results for a four cylinder power unit, a vehicle body shell component and an engine oil pan are included. In all cases the analysis was conducted in a general workshop environment without the need for vibration isolation facilities.

  16. Analysis of Total Electron Content and Electron Density Profile during Different Geomagnetic Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapagain, N. P.; Rana, B.; Adhikari, B.

    2017-12-01

    Total Electron content (TEC) and electron density are the key parameters in the mitigation of ionospheric effects on radio communication system. Detail study of the TEC and electron density variations has been carried out during geomagnetic storms, with longitude and latitude, for four different locations: (13˚N -17˚N, 88˚E -98˚E), (30˚N-50˚N, 120˚W -95˚W), (29˚S-26˚S, 167˚W-163˚W,) and (60˚S-45˚S, 120˚W-105˚W) using the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite observations. In order to find the geomagnetic activity, the solar wind parameters such as north-south component of inter planetary magnetic field (Bz), plasma drift velocity (Vsw), flow pressure (nPa), AE, Dst and Kp indices were obtained from Operating Mission as Nodes on the Internet (OMNI) web system. The data for geomagnetic indices have been correlated with the TEC and electron density for four different events of geomagnetic storms on 6 April 2008, 27 March 2008, 4 September 2008, and 11 October 2008. The result illustrates that the observed TEC and electron density profile significantly vary with longitudes and latitudes. This study illustrates that the values of TEC and the vertical electron density profile are influenced by the solar wind parameters associated with solar activities. The peak values of electron density and TEC increase as the geomagnetic storms become stronger. Similarly, the electron density profile varies with altitudes, which peaks around the altitude range of about 250- 350 km, depending on the strength of geomagnetic storms. The results clearly show that the peak electron density shifted to higher altitude (from about 250 km to 350 km) as the geomagnetic disturbances becomes stronger.

  17. Modelling of radiation risk induced by radon and sources of Auger electrons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boem, R.

    2003-01-01

    This thesis follows the national and worldwide radon research and application Auger radionuclides in nuclear medicine. Results of this thesis can be summarised into several points: (1) For the prediction of cancer risk following the exposure, it is also necessary to consider the mean cycle time of target cells. From our analyses it can be concluded that the mean cycle time of target cells should exceed 100 days. (2) The value of excess relative risk is for smokers ERR/WLM = (2.4-4.1)x10 -3 WLM -1 and that of the nonsmokers ERR/WLM=(4.2-10.7)x10 -3 WLM -1 , considering the underground medium. Excess relative risk for the nonsmokers ERR/(Bq m -3 ) = (1.0-3.5) Bq -1 m 3 and for smokers ERR/(Bq m -3 ) = (0.3-1.2) 10 -3 Bq -1 m 3 is supposed in dwellings. (3) Microdosimetric models are very helpful and suitable for prediction of the radon risk for underground conditions, as well as for indoor radon risk evaluation and they are also able to take into account the influence of the smoking habit. (4) The spatial distribution of energy deposition events and their magnitude is an essential input to evaluate the effects of radiation on biological systems. Therefore, for the calculation of deposited energy from the DNA incorporated Auger emitters, it is necessary at the DNA level to employ the MC calculation. In an effort to save computer time and memory it is possible to use the fitted function for monoenergetic electrons for estimation of at least relative radiotoxicity. The value of energy deposited in a small volume (sphere of diameter 2 nm) can be considered as the first estimation of an Auger emitter's radiotoxicity. (author)

  18. Uranium-contaminated soils: Ultramicrotomy and electron beam analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buck, E.C.; Dietz, N.L.; Bates, J.K.; Cunnane, J.C.

    1994-01-01

    Uranium contaminated soils from the Fernald Operation Site, Ohio, have been examined by a combination of optical microscopy, scanning electron microscopy with backscattered electron detection (SEM/BSE), and analytical electron microscopy (AEM). A method is described for preparing of transmission electron microscopy (TEM) thin sections by ultramicrotomy. By using these thin sections, SEM and TEM images can be compared directly. Uranium was found in iron oxides, silicates (soddyite), phosphates (autunites), and fluorite. Little uranium was associated with clays. The distribution of uranium phases was found to be inhomogeneous at the microscopic level

  19. Quantitative risk analysis in two pipelines operated by TRANSPETRO

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia, Claudio B. [PETROBRAS Transporte S/A (TRANSPETRO), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Pinho, Edson [Universidade Federal Rural do Rio de Janeiro (UFRRJ), Seropedica, RJ (Brazil); Bittencourt, Euclides [Centro Universitario FIB, Salvador , BA (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    Transportation risk analysis techniques were used to study two pipelines operated by TRANSPETRO. The Pipeline A is for the simultaneous transportation of diesel, gasoline and LPG and comprises three parts, all of them crossing rural areas. The Pipeline B is for oil transportation and one of its ends is located in an area of a high density population. Both pipelines had their risk studied using the PHAST RISK{sup R} software and the individual risk measures, the only considered measures for license purposes for this type of studies, presented level far below the maximum tolerable levels considered. (author)

  20. THE ANALYSIS OF RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS WITHIN MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ROMANESCU MARCEL LAURENTIU

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available This article highlights the risk analysis within management, focusing on how a company could practicaly integrate the risks management in the existing leading process. Subsequently, it is exemplified the way of manage risk effectively, which gives numerous advantages to all firms, including improving their decision-making process. All these lead to the conclusion that the degree of risk specific to companies is very high, but if managers make the best decisions then it can diminish it and all business activitiy and its income are not influenced by factors that could disturb in a negative way .

  1. Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon; Kelly, Dana; Smith, Curtis; Vedros, Kurt; Galyean, William

    2009-01-01

    This document, Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis, is intended to provide guidelines for the collection and evaluation of risk and reliability-related data. It is aimed at scientists and engineers familiar with risk and reliability methods and provides a hands-on approach to the investigation and application of a variety of risk and reliability data assessment methods, tools, and techniques. This document provides both: A broad perspective on data analysis collection and evaluation issues. A narrow focus on the methods to implement a comprehensive information repository. The topics addressed herein cover the fundamentals of how data and information are to be used in risk and reliability analysis models and their potential role in decision making. Understanding these topics is essential to attaining a risk informed decision making environment that is being sought by NASA requirements and procedures such as 8000.4 (Agency Risk Management Procedural Requirements), NPR 8705.05 (Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures for NASA Programs and Projects), and the System Safety requirements of NPR 8715.3 (NASA General Safety Program Requirements).

  2. Risk analysis of analytical validations by probabilistic modification of FMEA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barends, D.M.; Oldenhof, M.T.; Vredenbregt, M.J.

    2012-01-01

    Risk analysis is a valuable addition to validation of an analytical chemistry process, enabling not only detecting technical risks, but also risks related to human failures. Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) can be applied, using a categorical risk scoring of the occurrence, detection...... and severity of failure modes, and calculating the Risk Priority Number (RPN) to select failure modes for correction. We propose a probabilistic modification of FMEA, replacing the categorical scoring of occurrence and detection by their estimated relative frequency and maintaining the categorical scoring...... of severity. In an example, the results of traditional FMEA of a Near Infrared (NIR) analytical procedure used for the screening of suspected counterfeited tablets are re-interpretated by this probabilistic modification of FMEA. Using this probabilistic modification of FMEA, the frequency of occurrence...

  3. [Survival analysis with competing risks: estimating failure probability].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llorca, Javier; Delgado-Rodríguez, Miguel

    2004-01-01

    To show the impact of competing risks of death on survival analysis. We provide an example of survival time without chronic rejection after heart transplantation, where death before rejection acts as a competing risk. Using a computer simulation, we compare the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the multiple decrement model. The Kaplan-Meier method overestimated the probability of rejection. Next, we illustrate the use of the multiple decrement model to analyze secondary end points (in our example: death after rejection). Finally, we discuss Kaplan-Meier assumptions and why they fail in the presence of competing risks. Survival analysis should be adjusted for competing risks of death to avoid overestimation of the risk of rejection produced with the Kaplan-Meier method.

  4. Risk-benefit analysis and public policy: a bibliography

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clark, E.M.; Van Horn, A.J.

    1976-11-01

    Risk-benefit analysis has been implicitly practiced whenever decision-makers are confronted with decisions involving risks to life, health, or to the environment. Various methodologies have been developed to evaluate relevant criteria and to aid in assessing the impacts of alternative projects. Among these have been cost-benefit analysis, which has been widely used for project evaluation. However, in many cases it has been difficult to assign dollar costs to those criteria involving risks and benefits which are not now assigned explicit monetary values in our economic system. Hence, risk-benefit analysis has evolved to become more than merely an extension of cost-benefit analysis, and many methods have been applied to examine the trade-offs between risks and benefits. In addition, new scientific and statistical techniques have been developed for assessing current and future risks. The 950 references included in this bibliography are meant to suggest the breadth of those methodologies which have been applied to decisions involving risk.

  5. Risk-benefit analysis and public policy: a bibliography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clark, E.M.; Van Horn, A.J.

    1976-11-01

    Risk-benefit analysis has been implicitly practiced whenever decision-makers are confronted with decisions involving risks to life, health, or to the environment. Various methodologies have been developed to evaluate relevant criteria and to aid in assessing the impacts of alternative projects. Among these have been cost-benefit analysis, which has been widely used for project evaluation. However, in many cases it has been difficult to assign dollar costs to those criteria involving risks and benefits which are not now assigned explicit monetary values in our economic system. Hence, risk-benefit analysis has evolved to become more than merely an extension of cost-benefit analysis, and many methods have been applied to examine the trade-offs between risks and benefits. In addition, new scientific and statistical techniques have been developed for assessing current and future risks. The 950 references included in this bibliography are meant to suggest the breadth of those methodologies which have been applied to decisions involving risk

  6. EVALUATING RISK-PREDICTION MODELS USING DATA FROM ELECTRONIC HEALTH RECORDS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, L E; Shaw, Pamela A; Mathelier, Hansie M; Kimmel, Stephen E; French, Benjamin

    2016-03-01

    The availability of data from electronic health records facilitates the development and evaluation of risk-prediction models, but estimation of prediction accuracy could be limited by outcome misclassification, which can arise if events are not captured. We evaluate the robustness of prediction accuracy summaries, obtained from receiver operating characteristic curves and risk-reclassification methods, if events are not captured (i.e., "false negatives"). We derive estimators for sensitivity and specificity if misclassification is independent of marker values. In simulation studies, we quantify the potential for bias in prediction accuracy summaries if misclassification depends on marker values. We compare the accuracy of alternative prognostic models for 30-day all-cause hospital readmission among 4548 patients discharged from the University of Pennsylvania Health System with a primary diagnosis of heart failure. Simulation studies indicate that if misclassification depends on marker values, then the estimated accuracy improvement is also biased, but the direction of the bias depends on the direction of the association between markers and the probability of misclassification. In our application, 29% of the 1143 readmitted patients were readmitted to a hospital elsewhere in Pennsylvania, which reduced prediction accuracy. Outcome misclassification can result in erroneous conclusions regarding the accuracy of risk-prediction models.

  7. Tempo in electronic gaming machines affects behavior among at-risk gamblers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mentzoni, Rune A; Laberg, Jon Christian; Brunborg, Geir Scott; Molde, Helge; Pallesen, Ståle

    2012-09-01

    Background and aims Electronic gaming machines (EGM) may be a particularly addictive form of gambling, and gambling speed is believed to contribute to the addictive potential of such machines. The aim of the current study was to generate more knowledge concerning speed as a structural characteristic in gambling, by comparing the effects of three different bet-to-outcome intervals (BOI) on gamblers bet-sizes, game evaluations and illusion of control during gambling on a computer simulated slot machine. Furthermore, we investigated whether problem gambling moderates effects of BOI on gambling behavior and cognitions. Methods 62 participants played a computerized slot machine with either fast (400 ms), medium (1700 ms) or slow (3000 ms) BOI. SOGS-R was used to measure pre-existing gambling problems. Mean bet size, game evaluations and illusion of control comprised the dependent variables. Results Gambling speed had no overall effect on either mean bet size, game evaluations or illusion of control, but in the 400 ms condition, at-risk gamblers (SOGS-R score > 0) employed higher bet sizes compared to no-risk (SOGS-R score = 0) gamblers. Conclusions The findings corroborate and elaborate on previous studies and indicate that restrictions on gambling speed may serve as a harm reducing effort for at-risk gamblers.

  8. APPROPRIATE ALLOCATION OF CONTINGENCY USING RISK ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andi Andi

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Many cost overruns in the world of construction are attributable to either unforeseen events or foreseen events for which uncertainty was not appropriately accommodated. It is argued that a significant improvement to project management performance may result from greater attention to the process of analyzing project risks. The objective of this paper is to propose a risk analysis methodology for appropriate allocation of contingency in project cost estimation. In the first step, project risks will be identified. Influence diagramming technique is employed to identify and to show how the risks affect the project cost elements and also the relationships among the risks themselves. The second step is to assess the project costs with regards to the risks under consideration. Using a linguistic approach, the degree of uncertainty of identified project risks is assessed and quantified. The problem of dependency between risks is taken into consideration during this analysis. For the final step, as the main purpose of this paper, a method for allocating appropriate contingency is presented. Two types of contingencies, i.e. project contingency and management reserve are proposed to accommodate the risks. An illustrative example is presented at the end to show the application of the methodology.

  9. Rietveld analysis and electronic bands structure on Tc superconductors systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aldea, N.; Tiusan, C. V.; Sandu, V.

    1999-01-01

    A procedure for simultaneous refinement of structural and micro-structural disorder parameters for polycrystalline YBa 2 Cu 3 O 7-x system is proposed. It is based on Rietveld method combined with Fourier analysis for broadened peaks Another purpose of this paper consists in electronic structure determination studied by using the self-consistent Tight Binding Linear Muffin-Tin Orbital Atomic Spheres Approximation TB-LMTO-ASA methods. The Rietveld method uses an analytical function that describes the profiles, usually pseudo-Voigt (pV) or Pearson VII (PVII). The parameters of the analytical profiles describe its amplitude, position and peak shape. The full width at half maximum (FWHM) is supposed to vary with the diffraction angle in agreement with the Caglioti, Paoletti and Ricci's relationship. The best structural parameters are determined in the least squares sense by the minimisation a classical residual using the Marquardt method. In this case, the peak profiles were modelled by the pseudo-Voigt function corrected by the instrumental asymmetry. The physical information obtained are: scale factor, lattice parameters, atomic position and displacements, atomic occupation numbers, temperature factor (isotropy or anisotropy), preferred orientation parameter, crystalline size and micro-strain along different crystallographic directions, distributions of crystallite size and micro-strain functions. This procedure was implemented on computer code and it has a friendly graphical interface based on pull down menus technique. From the experimental point of view the X-ray diffraction data were collected using a horizontal powder diffractometer in the Bragg-Brentano (BB) geometry with a Ni filtered CuKα, λ = 1.54178 A, at room temperature using a DRON 2 set-up. The diffraction profiles were measured with a proportional gas detector, a single channel pulse-height discrimination and a standard associated counting circuit. The electronic band calculations are based on the TB

  10. Electron spectroscopy for surface analysis - the ES300 electron spectrometer and its applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walker, J.A.J.; Price, W.B.

    1980-07-01

    The features of the ES300 electron spectrometer are described together with factors which affect the energy spectrum, experimental variables and interpretation of the spectral information. A discussion of five applications illustrates the use of X-ray photo-electron spectroscopy (XPS) in the diverse work of the Risley Nuclear Power Development Laboratories (RNL). The analytical results are given for each of the examples and their interpretation discussed in the chemical context of the original problem. (author)

  11. Analysis of electron cyclotron emission spectra of high electron temperature, supershot plasmas in TFTR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, G.; Arunasalam, V.; Efthimion, P.C.; Grek, B.

    1993-01-01

    A primary objective of the TFTR program since 1986 has been the study and optimization of deuterium Supershot plasmas. These plasmas are predominantly heated by 90-110 keV neutral deuterium beams (P NBI /P OH >30), central ion temperatures are ∝30 keV and central electron temperatures from ECE (T ECE ) often exceed 10 keV. Central electron temperature data measured with a TV Thomson scattering (TVTS) system (T TVTS ) during the period 1987-1990 have been compared with data from three different ECE instruments on TFTR. Although T ECE ∝T TVTS for temperatures below 6 keV, there is a systematically increasing disagreement at higher electron temperatures, with T ECE ∝1.2 T TVTS for T TVTS in the range 9-10 keV. Recent theoretical work on the ECE radiation temperature of non-equilibrium plasmas indicates that for a bi-Maxwellian electron velocity distribution with a ratio of tail to bulk electron density η, a bulk temperature T b , and a hot tail temperature T h , the perpendicular ECE radiation temperature is given by T ECE ∝T b {1+η(T h /T b )}, for η ECE would be enhanced over T TVTS by a factor which depends on η and T h . This paper investigates whether the discrepancy between T TVTS and T ECE seen in TFTR Supershots at high electron temperatures is due to the presence of a hot electron tail component. The extraordinary mode ECE spectrum at the second, third and fourth harmonics is measured on the horizontal midplane by an absolutely calibrated ECE Michelson interferometer. This ECE spectrum is compared with the output from a time-independent transport code with relativistic opacity which solves the three-dimensional ECE radiation transport in a toroidally symmetric, two-dimensional geometry and uses measured electron density and temperature profiles from the TVTS system. (orig.)

  12. Structural reliability analysis and seismic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hwang, H.; Reich, M.; Shinozuka, M.

    1984-01-01

    This paper presents a reliability analysis method for safety evaluation of nuclear structures. By utilizing this method, it is possible to estimate the limit state probability in the lifetime of structures and to generate analytically the fragility curves for PRA studies. The earthquake ground acceleration, in this approach, is represented by a segment of stationary Gaussian process with a zero mean and a Kanai-Tajimi Spectrum. All possible seismic hazard at a site represented by a hazard curve is also taken into consideration. Furthermore, the limit state of a structure is analytically defined and the corresponding limit state surface is then established. Finally, the fragility curve is generated and the limit state probability is evaluated. In this paper, using a realistic reinforced concrete containment as an example, results of the reliability analysis of the containment subjected to dead load, live load and ground earthquake acceleration are presented and a fragility curve for PRA studies is also constructed

  13. Electronics

    Science.gov (United States)

    2001-01-01

    International Acer Incorporated, Hsin Chu, Taiwan Aerospace Industrial Development Corporation, Taichung, Taiwan American Institute of Taiwan, Taipei, Taiwan...Singapore and Malaysia .5 - 4 - The largest market for semiconductor products is the high technology consumer electronics industry that consumes up...Singapore, and Malaysia . A new semiconductor facility costs around $3 billion to build and takes about two years to become operational

  14. Surface analysis by electron spectroscopy. General concepts and applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feliu, S.

    1993-01-01

    An introduction is made to the techniques of electron spectroscopy (XPS and AES) used in the study of surface phenomena. Their theoretical principles, the singular information supplied by these techniques and their basic instrumentation (vacuum systems, excitation sources and electron analysers) are described. A revision of their applications to the Materials Science and the Corrosion Sciences is also made. Author. 44 refs

  15. Electronic medical records: a developing and developed country analysis

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Sikhondze, NC

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available of Electronic Medical Records (EMR) systems in developed and developing countries. There is a direct relationship between the income of the country and the use of electronic information and communication systems as part of healthcare systems hence the division...

  16. Economic efficiency analysis of electron accelerator for irradiation processing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shi Huidong; Chen Ronghui

    2003-01-01

    The fixed assets, running cost and economic efficiency were discussed in this paper. For building electron accelerator of 10 MeV and 3 kW, the running cost is one time higher than building cobalt source at 2.22 x 10 15 Bq, but economic efficiency of building a electron accelerator is much higher than building a cobalt source

  17. Gender Analysis Of Electronic Information Resource Use: The Case ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Based on the findings the study concluded that access and use of electronic information resources creates a “social digital divide” along gender lines. The study ... Finally, the library needs to change its marketing strategies on the availability of electronic information resources to increase awareness of these resources.

  18. Methodology for flood risk analysis for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wagner, D.P.; Casada, M.L.; Fussell, J.B.

    1984-01-01

    The methodology for flood risk analysis described here addresses the effects of a flood on nuclear power plant safety systems. Combining the results of this method with the probability of a flood allows the effects of flooding to be included in a probabilistic risk assessment. The five-step methodology includes accident sequence screening to focus the detailed analysis efforts on the accident sequences that are significantly affected by a flood event. The quantitative results include the flood's contribution to system failure probability, accident sequence occurrence frequency and consequence category occurrence frequency. The analysis can be added to existing risk assessments without a significant loss in efficiency. The results of two example applications show the usefulness of the methodology. Both examples rely on the Reactor Safety Study for the required risk assessment inputs and present changes in the Reactor Safety Study results as a function of flood probability

  19. Methodology for risk-based analysis of technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vesely, W.E.; Gaertner, J.P.; Wagner, D.P.

    1985-01-01

    Part of the effort by EPRI to apply probabilistic risk assessment methods and results to the solution of utility problems involves the investigation of methods for risk-based analysis of technical specifications. The culmination of this investigation is the SOCRATES computer code developed by Battelle's Columbus Laboratories to assist in the evaluation of technical specifications of nuclear power plants. The program is designed to use information found in PRAs to re-evaluate risk for changes in component allowed outage times (AOTs) and surveillance test intervals (STIs). The SOCRATES program is a unique and important tool for technical specification evaluations. The detailed component unavailability model allows a detailed analysis of AOT and STI contributions to risk. Explicit equations allow fast and inexpensive calculations. Because the code is designed to accept ranges of parameters and to save results of calculations that do not change during the analysis, sensitivity studies are efficiently performed and results are clearly displayed

  20. Risk factors for chronic and recurrent otitis media-a meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yan; Xu, Min; Zhang, Jin; Zeng, Lingxia; Wang, Yanfei; Zheng, Qing Yin

    2014-01-01

    Risk factors associated with chronic otitis media (COM) and recurrent otitis media (ROM) have been investigated in previous studies. The objective of this study was to integrate the findings and determine the possible risk factors for COM/ROM based on our meta-analysis. A comprehensive search of electronic bibliographic databases (PubMed, Embase, CNKI and Wanfang database) from 1964 to Dec 2012, as well as a manual search of references of articles, was performed. A total of 2971 articles were searched, and 198 full-text articles were assessed for eligibility; 24 studies were eligible for this meta-analysis. Regarding risk factors for COM/ROM, there were two to nine different studies from which the odds ratios (ORs) could be pooled. The presence of allergy or atopy increased the risk of COM/ROM (OR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.13-1.64; P = 0.001). An upper respiratory tract infection (URTI) significantly increased the risk of COM/ROM (OR, 6.59; 95% CI, 3.13-13.89; Pmedia (AOM)/ROM increased the risk of COM/ROM (OR, 11.13; 95% CI, 1.06-116.44; P = 0.04). Passive smoke significantly increased the risk of COM/ROM (OR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.02-1.89 P = 0.04). Low social status appeared to be a risk factor for COM/ROM (OR, 3.82; 95% CI, 1.11-13.15; P = 0.03). Our meta-analysis identified reliable conclusions that allergy/atopy, URTI, snoring, previous history of AOM/ROM, Second-hand smoke and low social status are important risk factors for COM/ROM. Other unidentified risk factors need to be identified in further studies with critical criteria.

  1. Maritime transportation risk analysis: Review and analysis in light of some foundational issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goerlandt, Floris; Montewka, Jakub

    2015-01-01

    Many methods and applications for maritime transportation risk analysis have been presented in the literature. In parallel, there is a recent focus on foundational issues in risk analysis, with calls for intensified research on fundamental concepts and principles underlying the scientific field. This paper presents a review and analysis of risk definitions, perspectives and scientific approaches to risk analysis found in the maritime transportation application area, focusing on applications addressing accidental risk of shipping in a sea area. For this purpose, a classification of risk definitions, an overview of elements in risk perspectives and a classification of approaches to risk analysis science are applied. Results reveal that in the application area, risk is strongly tied to probability, both in definitions and perspectives, while alternative views exist. A diffuse situation is also found concerning the scientific approach to risk analysis, with realist, proceduralist and constructivist foundations co-existing. Realist approaches dominate the application area. Very few applications systematically account for uncertainty, neither concerning the evidence base nor in relation to the limitations of the risk model in relation to the space of possible outcomes. Some suggestions are made to improve the current situation, aiming to strengthen the scientific basis for risk analysis. - Highlights: • Risk analyses in maritime transportation analysed in light of foundational issues. • Focus on definitions, perspectives and scientific approaches to risk analysis. • Probability-based definitions and realist approaches dominate the field. • Findings support calls for increased focus on foundational issues in risk research. • Some suggestions are made to improve the current situation

  2. Diffusive and convective transport modelling from analysis of ECRH-stimulated electron heat wave propagation. [ECRH (Electron Cyclotron Resonance Heating)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Erckmann, V; Gasparino, U; Giannone, L. (Max-Planck-Institut fuer Plasmaphysik, Garching (Germany)) (and others)

    1992-01-01

    ECRH power modulation experiments in toroidal devices offer the chance to analyze the electron heat transport more conclusively: the electron heat wave propagation can be observed by ECE (or SX) leading to radial profiles of electron temperature modulation amplitude and time delay (phase shift). Taking also the stationary power balance into account, the local electron heat transport can be modelled by a combination of diffusive and convective transport terms. This method is applied to ECRH discharges in the W7-AS stellarator (B=2.5T, R=2m, a[<=]18 cm) where the ECRH power deposition is highly localized. In W7-AS, the T[sub e] modulation profiles measured by a high resolution ECE system are the basis for the local transport analysis. As experimental errors limit the separation of diffusive and convective terms in the electron heat transport for central power deposition, also ECRH power modulation experiments with off-axis deposition and inward heat wave propagation were performed (with 70 GHz o-mode as well as with 140 GHz x-mode for increased absorption). Because collisional electron-ion coupling and radiative losses are only small, low density ECRH discharges are best candidates for estimating the electron heat flux from power balance. (author) 2 refs., 3 figs.

  3. An Application of Fuzzy Theory to Technical Competency Analysis for the Entry-Level Electronic Technician.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Liang-Te; And Others

    A study was conducted to develop the electronic technical competencies of duty and task analysis by using a revised DACUM (Developing a Curriculum) method, a questionnaire survey, and a fuzzy synthesis operation. The revised DACUM process relied on inviting electronics trade professionals to analyze electronic technology for entry-level…

  4. Myeloperoxidase polymorphism, menopausal status, and breast cancer risk: an update meta-analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xue Qin

    Full Text Available Myeloperoxidase (MPO is a metabolic/oxidative lysosomal enzyme secreted by reactive neutrophils at the sites of inflamed organs and tissues during phagocytosis. MPO has been either directly or indirectly linked to neoplasia, which is a well-established risk factor for many types of cancer. A large number of studies have reported the role of MPO G-463A polymorphism regarding breast-cancer risk. However, the published findings are inconsistent. Therefore, we conducted a meta-analysis to determine more precise estimations for the relationship. Eligible studies were identified by searching several electronic databases for relevant reports published before June 2012. According to the inclusion criteria and exclusion criteria, a total of five eligible studies were included in the pooled analyses. When the five eligible studies concerning MPO G-463A polymorphism were pooled into this meta-analysis, there was no evidence found for a significant association between MPO G-463A polymorphism and breast-cancer risk in any genetic model. We also categorized by ethnicity (Caucasian or Asian for subgroup analysis; according to this subgroup analysis, we found no significant association between MPO G-463A polymorphism and breast-cancer risk in any genetic model. However, in the stratified analysis for the premenopausal group, women carrying the AA genotype were found to have a significantly reduced risk (OR = 0.56, 95% CI 0.34-0.94, p = 0.027. Under the recessive model, there was a significant association between MPO G-463A polymorphism and breast-cancer risk (OR = 0.57, 95% CI 0.34-0.93, p = 0.025. We conclude that MPO-G463A polymorphism might not be a good predictor of breast-cancer risk, though menopausal status modified women's risk of developing breast cancer.

  5. Probabilistic methodology for turbine missile risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Twisdale, L.A.; Dunn, W.L.; Frank, R.A.

    1984-01-01

    A methodology has been developed for estimation of the probabilities of turbine-generated missile damage to nuclear power plant structures and systems. Mathematical models of the missile generation, transport, and impact events have been developed and sequenced to form an integrated turbine missile simulation methodology. Probabilistic Monte Carlo techniques are used to estimate the plant impact and damage probabilities. The methodology has been coded in the TURMIS computer code to facilitate numerical analysis and plant-specific turbine missile probability assessments. Sensitivity analyses have been performed on both the individual models and the integrated methodology, and probabilities have been estimated for a hypothetical nuclear power plant case study. (orig.)

  6. Enabling Collaborative Analysis: State Evaluation Groups, the Electronic State File, and Collaborative Analysis Tools

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eldridge, C.; Gagne, D.; Wilson, B.; Murray, J.; Gazze, C.; Feldman, Y.; Rorif, F.

    2015-01-01

    The timely collection and analysis of all safeguards relevant information is the key to drawing and maintaining soundly-based safeguards conclusions. In this regard, the IAEA has made multidisciplinary State Evaluation Groups (SEGs) central to this process. To date, SEGs have been established for all States and tasked with developing State-level approaches (including the identification of technical objectives), drafting annual implementation plans specifying the field and headquarters activities necessary to meet technical objectives, updating the State evaluation on an ongoing basis to incorporate new information, preparing an annual evaluation summary, and recommending a safeguards conclusion to IAEA senior management. To accomplish these tasks, SEGs need to be staffed with relevant expertise and empowered with tools that allow for collaborative access to, and analysis of, disparate information sets. To ensure SEGs have the requisite expertise, members are drawn from across the Department of Safeguards based on their knowledge of relevant data sets (e.g., nuclear material accountancy, material balance evaluation, environmental sampling, satellite imagery, open source information, etc.) or their relevant technical (e.g., fuel cycle) expertise. SEG members also require access to all available safeguards relevant data on the State. To facilitate this, the IAEA is also developing a common, secure platform where all safeguards information can be electronically stored and made available for analysis (an electronic State file). The structure of this SharePoint-based system supports IAEA information collection processes, enables collaborative analysis by SEGs, and provides for management insight and review. In addition to this common platform, the Agency is developing, deploying, and/or testing sophisticated data analysis tools that can synthesize information from diverse information sources, analyze diverse datasets from multiple viewpoints (e.g., temporal, geospatial

  7. Reliability and risk analysis data base development: an historical perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fragola, Joseph R.

    1996-01-01

    Collection of empirical data and data base development for use in the prediction of the probability of future events has a long history. Dating back at least to the 17th century, safe passage events and mortality events were collected and analyzed to uncover prospective underlying classes and associated class attributes. Tabulations of these developed classes and associated attributes formed the underwriting basis for the fledgling insurance industry. Much earlier, master masons and architects used design rules of thumb to capture the experience of the ages and thereby produce structures of incredible longevity and reliability (Antona, E., Fragola, J. and Galvagni, R. Risk based decision analysis in design. Fourth SRA Europe Conference Proceedings, Rome, Italy, 18-20 October 1993). These rules served so well in producing robust designs that it was not until almost the 19th century that the analysis (Charlton, T.M., A History Of Theory Of Structures In The 19th Century, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 1982) of masonry voussoir arches, begun by Galileo some two centuries earlier (Galilei, G. Discorsi e dimostrazioni mathematiche intorno a due nuove science, (Discourses and mathematical demonstrations concerning two new sciences, Leiden, The Netherlands, 1638), was placed on a sound scientific basis. Still, with the introduction of new materials (such as wrought iron and steel) and the lack of theoretical knowledge and computational facilities, approximate methods of structural design abounded well into the second half of the 20th century. To this day structural designers account for material variations and gaps in theoretical knowledge by employing factors of safety (Benvenuto, E., An Introduction to the History of Structural Mechanics, Part II: Vaulted Structures and Elastic Systems, Springer-Verlag, NY, 1991) or codes of practice (ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code, ASME, New York) originally developed in the 19th century (Antona, E., Fragola, J. and

  8. Source modelling in seismic risk analysis for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yucemen, M.S.

    1978-12-01

    The proposed probabilistic procedure provides a consistent method for the modelling, analysis and updating of uncertainties that are involved in the seismic risk analysis for nuclear power plants. The potential earthquake activity zones are idealized as point, line or area sources. For these seismic source types, expressions to evaluate their contribution to seismic risk are derived, considering all the possible site-source configurations. The seismic risk at a site is found to depend not only on the inherent randomness of the earthquake occurrences with respect to magnitude, time and space, but also on the uncertainties associated with the predicted values of the seismic and geometric parameters, as well as the uncertainty in the attenuation model. The uncertainty due to the attenuation equation is incorporated into the analysis through the use of random correction factors. The influence of the uncertainty resulting from the insufficient information on the seismic parameters and source geometry is introduced into the analysis by computing a mean risk curve averaged over the various alternative assumptions on the parameters and source geometry. Seismic risk analysis is carried for the city of Denizli, which is located in the seismically most active zone of Turkey. The second analysis is for Akkuyu

  9. Challenges in the vulnerability and risk analysis of critical infrastructures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zio, Enrico

    2016-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to provide a systematic view on the problem of vulnerability and risk analysis of critical infrastructures. Reflections are made on the inherent complexities of these systems, related challenges are identified and possible ways forward for their analysis and management are indicated. Specifically: the framework of vulnerability and risk analysis is examined in relation to its application for the protection and resilience of critical infrastructures; it is argued that the complexity of these systems is a challenging characteristic, which calls for the integration of different modeling perspectives and new approaches of analysis; examples of are given in relation to the Internet and, particularly, the electric power grid, as representative of critical infrastructures and the associated complexity; the integration of different types of analyses and methods of system modeling is put forward for capturing the inherent structural and dynamic complexities of critical infrastructures and eventually evaluating their vulnerability and risk characteristics, so that decisions on protections and resilience actions can be taken with the required confidence. - Highlights: • The problem of the protection and resilience of CIs is the focus of the work. • The vulnerability and risk analysis framework for this is critically examined. • The complexity of CIs is presented as a challenge for system modeling and analysis. • The integration of different modeling perspectives of analysis is put forward as a solution. • The extension of the analysis framework to new methods for dealing with surprises and black swans is advocated.

  10. Revealing the underlying drivers of disaster risk: a global analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peduzzi, Pascal

    2017-04-01

    Disasters events are perfect examples of compound events. Disaster risk lies at the intersection of several independent components such as hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Understanding the weight of each component requires extensive standardisation. Here, I show how footprints of past disastrous events were generated using GIS modelling techniques and used for extracting population and economic exposures based on distribution models. Using past event losses, it was possible to identify and quantify a wide range of socio-politico-economic drivers associated with human vulnerability. The analysis was applied to about nine thousand individual past disastrous events covering earthquakes, floods and tropical cyclones. Using a multiple regression analysis on these individual events it was possible to quantify each risk component and assess how vulnerability is influenced by various hazard intensities. The results show that hazard intensity, exposure, poverty, governance as well as other underlying factors (e.g. remoteness) can explain the magnitude of past disasters. Analysis was also performed to highlight the role of future trends in population and climate change and how this may impacts exposure to tropical cyclones in the future. GIS models combined with statistical multiple regression analysis provided a powerful methodology to identify, quantify and model disaster risk taking into account its various components. The same methodology can be applied to various types of risk at local to global scale. This method was applied and developed for the Global Risk Analysis of the Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR). It was first applied on mortality risk in GAR 2009 and GAR 2011. New models ranging from global assets exposure and global flood hazard models were also recently developed to improve the resolution of the risk analysis and applied through CAPRA software to provide probabilistic economic risk assessments such as Average Annual Losses (AAL

  11. Analysis of core plasma heating and ignition by relativistic electrons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakao, Y.

    2002-01-01

    Clarification of the pre-compressed plasma heating by fast electrons produced by relativistic laser-plasma interaction is one of the most important issues of the fast ignition scheme in ICF. On the basis of overall calculations including the heating process, both by relativistic hot electrons and alpha-particles, and the hydrodynamic evolution of bulk plasma, we examine the feature of core plasma heating and the possibility of ignition. The deposition of the electron energy via long-range collective mode, i.e. Langmuir wave excitation, is shown to be comparable to that through binary electron-electron collisions; the calculation neglecting the wave excitation considerably underestimates the core plasma heating. The ignition condition is also shown in terms of the intensity I(h) and temperature T(h) of hot electrons. It is found that I(h) required for ignition increases in proportion to T(h). For efficiently achieving the fast ignition, electron beams with relatively 'low' energy (e.g.T(h) below 1 MeV) are desirable. (author)

  12. ELECTRONIC EVIDENCE IN THE JUDICIAL PROCEEDINGS AND COMPUTER FORENSIC ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marija Boban

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Today’s perspective of the information society is characterized by the terminology of modern dictionaries of globalization including the terms such as convergence, digitization (media, technology and/or telecommunications and mobility of people or technology. Each word with progress, development, a positive sign of the rise of the information society. On the other hand in a virtual environment traditional evidence in judicial proceedings with the document on paper substrate, are becoming electronic evidence, and their management processes and criteria for admissibility are changing over traditional evidence. The rapid growth of computer data created new opportunities and the growth of new forms of computing, and cyber crime, but also the new ways of proof in court cases, which were unavailable just a few decades. The authors of this paper describe new trends in the development of the information society and the emergence of electronic evidence, with emphasis on the impact of the development of computer crime on electronic evidence; the concept, legal regulation and probative value of electronic evidence, and in particular of electronic documents; and the issue of electronic evidence expertise and electronic documents in court proceedings.

  13. Aspects of the risk analysis in the process engineering industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hennings, W.; Madjar, M.; Mock, R.; Reer, B.

    1996-01-01

    This document is the result of a multi-discipline working group of a portion of a project called Risk analysis for chemical plants. Within the framework of the project, only selected methods and tools of risk analysis, thus, aspects of method, were able to be discussed and developed further. Case examples from the chemical industry are dealt with in order to discuss the application of a computer assisted quantitative error analysis in this industrial sector. Included is also a comprehensive documentation of the data and results utilised in the examples. figs., tabs., refs

  14. Is adaptation or transformation needed? Active nanomaterials and risk analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuzma, Jennifer; Roberts, John Patrick

    2016-07-01

    Nanotechnology has been a key area of funding and policy for the United States and globally for the past two decades. Since nanotechnology research and development became a focus and nanoproducts began to permeate the market, scholars and scientists have been concerned about how to assess the risks that they may pose to human health and the environment. The newest generation of nanomaterials includes biomolecules that can respond to and influence their environments, and there is a need to explore whether and how existing risk-analysis frameworks are challenged by such novelty. To fill this niche, we used a modified approach of upstream oversight assessment (UOA), a subset of anticipatory governance. We first selected case studies of "active nanomaterials," that are early in research and development and designed for use in multiple sectors, and then considered them under several, key risk-analysis frameworks. We found two ways in which the cases challenge the frameworks. The first category relates to how to assess risk under a narrow framing of the term (direct health and environmental harm), and the second involves the definition of what constitutes a "risk" worthy of assessment and consideration in decision making. In light of these challenges, we propose some changes for risk analysis in the face of active nanostructures in order to improve risk governance.

  15. Cable Hot Shorts and Circuit Analysis in Fire Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    LaChance, Jeffrey; Nowlen, Steven P.; Wyant, Frank

    1999-01-01

    Under existing methods of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), the analysis of fire-induced circuit faults has typically been conducted on a simplistic basis. In particular, those hot-short methodologies that have been applied remain controversial in regards to the scope of the assessments, the underlying methods, and the assumptions employed. To address weaknesses in fire PRA methodologies, the USNRC has initiated a fire risk analysis research program that includes a task for improving the tools for performing circuit analysis. The objective of this task is to obtain a better understanding of the mechanisms linking fire-induced cable damage to potentially risk-significant failure modes of power, control, and instrumentation cables. This paper discusses the current status of the circuit analysis task

  16. Cyber Risk Management for Critical Infrastructure: A Risk Analysis Model and Three Case Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paté-Cornell, M-Elisabeth; Kuypers, Marshall; Smith, Matthew; Keller, Philip

    2018-02-01

    Managing cyber security in an organization involves allocating the protection budget across a spectrum of possible options. This requires assessing the benefits and the costs of these options. The risk analyses presented here are statistical when relevant data are available, and system-based for high-consequence events that have not happened yet. This article presents, first, a general probabilistic risk analysis framework for cyber security in an organization to be specified. It then describes three examples of forward-looking analyses motivated by recent cyber attacks. The first one is the statistical analysis of an actual database, extended at the upper end of the loss distribution by a Bayesian analysis of possible, high-consequence attack scenarios that may happen in the future. The second is a systems analysis of cyber risks for a smart, connected electric grid, showing that there is an optimal level of connectivity. The third is an analysis of sequential decisions to upgrade the software of an existing cyber security system or to adopt a new one to stay ahead of adversaries trying to find their way in. The results are distributions of losses to cyber attacks, with and without some considered countermeasures in support of risk management decisions based both on past data and anticipated incidents. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  17. Ontology-based specification, identification and analysis of perioperative risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uciteli, Alexandr; Neumann, Juliane; Tahar, Kais; Saleh, Kutaiba; Stucke, Stephan; Faulbrück-Röhr, Sebastian; Kaeding, André; Specht, Martin; Schmidt, Tobias; Neumuth, Thomas; Besting, Andreas; Stegemann, Dominik; Portheine, Frank; Herre, Heinrich

    2017-09-06

    Medical personnel in hospitals often works under great physical and mental strain. In medical decision-making, errors can never be completely ruled out. Several studies have shown that between 50 and 60% of adverse events could have been avoided through better organization, more attention or more effective security procedures. Critical situations especially arise during interdisciplinary collaboration and the use of complex medical technology, for example during surgical interventions and in perioperative settings (the period of time before, during and after surgical intervention). In this paper, we present an ontology and an ontology-based software system, which can identify risks across medical processes and supports the avoidance of errors in particular in the perioperative setting. We developed a practicable definition of the risk notion, which is easily understandable by the medical staff and is usable for the software tools. Based on this definition, we developed a Risk Identification Ontology (RIO) and used it for the specification and the identification of perioperative risks. An agent system was developed, which gathers risk-relevant data during the whole perioperative treatment process from various sources and provides it for risk identification and analysis in a centralized fashion. The results of such an analysis are provided to the medical personnel in form of context-sensitive hints and alerts. For the identification of the ontologically specified risks, we developed an ontology-based software module, called Ontology-based Risk Detector (OntoRiDe). About 20 risks relating to cochlear implantation (CI) have already been implemented. Comprehensive testing has indicated the correctness of the data acquisition, risk identification and analysis components, as well as the web-based visualization of results.

  18. Risk analysis of radioactive waste management systems in Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wingender, H.J.

    1978-01-01

    Within the scope of a system study, ''Radioactive wastes in the Federal Republic of Germany,'' performed from 1974 through 1976, the questions of risk assessment were investigated. A risk analysis of a high-level waste (HLW) management system was performed. The results of the HLW tank storage are that the risk expectation value is 700 nJ/kg x RBE (7 x 10 -5 rem) per year for atmospheric release. The discussion of the main contributing accidents shows the possibility of reducing the risk by a technical means. A qualitative comparison on the release basis with the results of the WASH-1400 report shows significant differences that can be explained by the different methodologies applied. The risk analysis activities have led to a comprehensive risk assessment project, which was recently started. The projected includes research and development tasks concerning nuclide migration and transport to the ecosphere, nuclide mobilization by various mechanisms, methodology problems, data collection, computer code development, as well as risk analyses of waste management facilities. It is intended to round off the project with risk analyses of spent fuel element transport, storage, and reprocessing

  19. Transient analysis of a bunched beam free electron laser

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, J.M.; Yu, L.H.

    1985-01-01

    The problem of the bunched beam operation of a free electron laser was studied. Assuming the electron beam to be initially monoenergetic, the Maxwell-Vlasov equations describing the system reduce to a third order partial differential equation for the envelope of the emitted light. The Green's function corresponding to an arbitrary shape of the electron bunch, which describes the transient behavior of the system, is obtained. The Green's function was used to discuss the start up problem as well as the power output and the power specrum of a self-amplified spontaneous emission

  20. Fire risk analysis in ITER tritium building

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lignini, Franck; Uzan-Elbez, Joelle; Girard, Jean-Philippe; Porfiri, Maria Teresa; Rodriguez-Rodrigo, Lina

    2005-01-01

    Events, such as fire, have been considered in ITER documentation of low probability and a general approach has been defined in [Technical basis for the ITER final design, EDA Documentation Series I, No. 22, IAEA, Vienna, 2001] to be developed later for the ITER specific site. It was said that 'these hazards will be treated according to the industrial safety regulations and practices of the host country'. In the framework of studies for the European ITER site in Cadarache, an assessment of fire hazard has been done in order to ensure compliance with French safety requirements. In this report, a summary of existing laws is presented and an example of the deterministic approach to be followed for the preliminary safety report (PSR) is given on the analysis of tritium building design

  1. DORIAN, Bayes Method Plant Age Risk Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atwood, C.L.

    2002-01-01

    1 - Description of program or function: DORIAN is an integrated package for performing Bayesian aging analysis of reliability data; e.g. for identifying trends in component failure rates and/or outage durations as a function of time. The user must specify several alternative hypothesized 'aging models' (i.e., possible trends) along prior probabilities indicating the subject probability that each trend is actually the correct one. DORIAN then uses component failure and/or repair data over time to update these prior probabilities and develop a posterior probability for each aging model, representing the probability that each model is the correct one in light of the observed data rather than a priori. Mean, median, and 5. and 95. percentile trends are also compiled from the posterior probabilities. 2 - Method of solution: DORIAN carries out a Bayesian analysis of failure data and a prior distribution on a time-dependent failure rate to obtain a posterior distribution on the failure rate. The form of the time-dependent failure rate is arbitrary, because DORIAN approximates the form by a step-function, constant within specified time intervals. Similarly, the parameters may have any prior distribution, because DORIAN uses a discrete distribution to approximate this. Likewise, the database file produced by DORIAN approximates the entire range of possible failure rates or outage durations developed by means of a discrete probability distribution containing no more than 20 distinct values with their probabilities. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: Prior distribution is discrete with up to 25 values. Up to 60 times are accommodated in the discrete time history

  2. Uranium-contaminated soils: Ultramicrotomy and electron beam analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buck, E.C.; Dietz, N.L.; Bates, J.K.; Cunnane, J.C.

    1994-02-01

    Uranium-contaminated soils from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Fernald Site, Ohio, have been examined by a combination of scanning electron microscopy with backscattered electron imaging (SEM/BSE) and analytical electron microscopy (AEM). The inhomogeneous distribution of particulate uranium phases in the soil required the development of a method for using ultramicrotomy to prepare transmission electron microscopy (TEM) thin sections of the SEM mounts. A water-miscible resin was selected that allowed comparison between SEM and TEM images, permitting representative sampling of the soil. Uranium was found in iron oxides, silicates (soddyite), phosphates (autunites), and fluorite (UO 2 ). No uranium was detected in association with phyllosilicates in the soil

  3. Cost/benefit analysis of electronic license plates

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-06-01

    The objective of this report is to determine whether electronic vehicle recognition systems (EVR) or automatic license plate recognition systems (ALPR) would be beneficial to the Arizona Department of Transportation (AZDOT). EVR uses radio frequency ...

  4. Quantitative risk assessment using the capacity-demand analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morgenroth, M.; Donnelly, C.R.; Westermann, G.D.; Huang, J.H.S.; Lam, T.M.

    1999-01-01

    The hydroelectric industry's recognition of the importance of avoiding unexpected failure, or forced outages, led to the development of probabilistic, or risk-based, methods in order to attempt to quantify exposures. Traditionally, such analysis has been carried out by qualitative assessments, relying on experience and sound engineering judgment to determine the optimum time to maintain, repair or replace a part or system. Depending on the nature of the problem, however, and the level of experience of those included in the decision making process, it is difficult to find a balance between acting proactively and accepting some amount of risk. The development of a practical means for establishing the probability of failure of any part or system, based on the determination of the statistical distribution of engineering properties such as acting stresses, is discussed. The capacity-demand analysis methodology, coupled with probablistic, risk-based analysis, permits all the factors associated with a decision to rehabilitate or replace a part, including the risks associated with the timing of the decision, to be assessed in a transparent and defendable manner. The methodology does not eliminate judgment altogether, but does move it from the level of estimating the risk of failure to the lower level of estimating variability in material properties, uncertainty in loading, and the uncertainties inherent in any engineering analysis. The method was successfully used in 1998 to carry out a comprehensive, economic risk analysis for the entire water conveyance system of a 90 year old hydropower station. The analysis included a number of diverse parts ranging from rock slopes and aging steel and concrete conduits, and the method allowed a rational assessment of the risks associated with reach of these varied parts to be determined, permitting the essential remedial works to be prioritized. 14 refs., 4 figs

  5. Vibrational analysis of a shipboard free electron laser beam path

    OpenAIRE

    Gallant, Bryan M.

    2011-01-01

    This thesis explores the deployment of a free electron laser (FEL) weapon system in a shipboard vibration environment. A concept solid model of a shipboard FEL is developed and used as a basis for a finite element model which is subjected to vibration simulation in MATLAB. Vibration input is obtained from ship shock trials data and wave excited motion data from ship motion simulation software. Emphasis is placed on the motion of electron beam path components of the FEL and the feasibility of ...

  6. Risk-based configuration control system: Analysis and approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Lofgren, E.V.; Vesely, W.E.

    1990-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of risks associated with component outage configurations during power operation of a nuclear power plant and discusses approaches and strategies for developing a risk-based configuration control system. A configuration, as used here, is a set of component states. The objective of risk-based configuration control is to detect and control plant configurations using a risk-perspective. The configuration contributions to core-melt frequency and core-melt probability are studied for two plants. Large core-melt frequency can be caused by configurations and there are a number of such configurations that are not currently controlled by technical specifications. However, the expected frequency of occurrence of the impacting configurations is small and the actual core-melt probability contributions are also generally small. Effective strategies and criteria for controlling configuration risks are presented. Such control strategies take into consideration the risks associated with configurations, the nature and characteristics of the configuration risks, and also the practical considerations such as adequate repair times and/or options to transfer to low risk configurations. Alternative types of criteria are discussed that are not overly restrictive to result in unnecessary plant shutdown, but rather motivates effective test and maintenance practices that control risk-significant configurations to allow continued operation with an adequate margin to meet challenges to safety

  7. Risk-based configuration control system: Analysis and approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Vesely, W.E.; Kim, I.S.; Lofgren, E.V.

    1989-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of risks associated with component outage configurations during power operation of a nuclear power plant and discusses approaches and strategies for developing a risk-based configuration control system. A configuration, as used here, is a set of component states. The objective of risk-based configuration control is to detect and control plant configurations using a risk-perspective. The configuration contributions to core-melt frequency and core-melt probability are studied for two plants. Large core-melt frequency can be caused by configurations and there are a number of such configurations that are not currently controlled by technical specifications. However, the expected frequency of occurrence of the impacting configurations is small and the actual core-melt probability contributions are also generally small. Effective strategies and criteria for controlling configuration risks are presented. Such control strategies take into consideration the risks associated with configurations, the nature and characteristics of the configuration risks, and also the practical considerations such as adequate repair times and/or options to transfer to low risk configurations. Alternative types of criteria are discussed that are not overly restrictive to result in unnecessary plant shutdown, but rather motivates effective tests and maintenance practices that control; risk-significant configurations to allow continued operation with an adequate margin to meet challenges to safety. 3 refs., 7 figs., 2 tabs

  8. Explaining HIV Risk Multiplexity: A Social Network Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Felsher, Marisa; Koku, Emmanuel

    2018-04-21

    Risk multiplexity (i.e., overlap in drug-use, needle exchange and sexual relations) is a known risk factor for HIV. However, little is known about predictors of multiplexity. This study uses egocentric data from the Colorado Springs study to examine how individual, behavioral and social network factors influence engagement in multiplex risk behavior. Analyses revealed that compared to Whites, Hispanics were significantly more likely to engage in risk multiplexity and Blacks less so. Respondents who were similar to each other (e.g., in terms of race) had significantly higher odds of being in risk multiplex relationships, and respondents' risk perceptions and network size were significantly associated with engaging in multiplex risk behaviors. Findings from interaction analysis showed the effect of knowing someone with HIV on the odds of multiplexity depends partly on whether respondents' know their HIV status. Findings suggest that demographics, HIV behaviors and network factors impact engagement in multiplex risk behaviors, highlighting the need for multi-level interventions aimed at reducing HIV risk behavior.

  9. Momentum space analysis of the electronic structure of biphenyl

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morini, F; Shojaei, S H Reza; Deleuze, M S

    2014-01-01

    The results of a yet to come experimental study of the electronic structure of biphenyl employing electron momentum spectroscopy (EMS) have been theoretically predicted, taking into account complications such as structural mobility in the electronic ground state, electronic correlation and relaxation, and a dispersion of the inner-valence ionization intensity to electronically excited (shake-up) configurations in the cation. The main purpose of this work is to explore the current limits of EMS in unraveling details of the molecular structure, namely the torsional characteristics of large and floppy aromatic molecules. At the benchmark ADC(3)/cc-pVDZ level of theory, the influence of the twist angle between the two phenyl rings is found to be extremely limited, except for individual orbital momentum profiles corresponding to ionization lines at electron binding energies ranging from 15 to 18 eV. When taking band overlap effects into account, this influence is deceptively far too limited to allow for any experimental determination of the torsional characteristics of biphenyl by means of EMS. (paper)

  10. National evaluation of the benefits and risks of greater structuring and coding of the electronic health record: exploratory qualitative investigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrison, Zoe; Fernando, Bernard; Kalra, Dipak; Cresswell, Kathrin; Sheikh, Aziz

    2014-01-01

    We aimed to explore stakeholder views, attitudes, needs, and expectations regarding likely benefits and risks resulting from increased structuring and coding of clinical information within electronic health records (EHRs). Qualitative investigation in primary and secondary care and research settings throughout the UK. Data were derived from interviews, expert discussion groups, observations, and relevant documents. Participants (n=70) included patients, healthcare professionals, health service commissioners, policy makers, managers, administrators, systems developers, researchers, and academics. Four main themes arose from our data: variations in documentation practice; patient care benefits; secondary uses of information; and informing and involving patients. We observed a lack of guidelines, co-ordination, and dissemination of best practice relating to the design and use of information structures. While we identified immediate benefits for direct care and secondary analysis, many healthcare professionals did not see the relevance of structured and/or coded data to clinical practice. The potential for structured information to increase patient understanding of their diagnosis and treatment contrasted with concerns regarding the appropriateness of coded information for patients. The design and development of EHRs requires the capture of narrative information to reflect patient/clinician communication and computable data for administration and research purposes. Increased structuring and/or coding of EHRs therefore offers both benefits and risks. Documentation standards within clinical guidelines are likely to encourage comprehensive, accurate processing of data. As data structures may impact upon clinician/patient interactions, new models of documentation may be necessary if EHRs are to be read and authored by patients.

  11. Tutorial: Parallel Computing of Simulation Models for Risk Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reilly, Allison C; Staid, Andrea; Gao, Michael; Guikema, Seth D

    2016-10-01

    Simulation models are widely used in risk analysis to study the effects of uncertainties on outcomes of interest in complex problems. Often, these models are computationally complex and time consuming to run. This latter point may be at odds with time-sensitive evaluations or may limit the number of parameters that are considered. In this article, we give an introductory tutorial focused on parallelizing simulation code to better leverage modern computing hardware, enabling risk analysts to better utilize simulation-based methods for quantifying uncertainty in practice. This article is aimed primarily at risk analysts who use simulation methods but do not yet utilize parallelization to decrease the computational burden of these models. The discussion is focused on conceptual aspects of embarrassingly parallel computer code and software considerations. Two complementary examples are shown using the languages MATLAB and R. A brief discussion of hardware considerations is located in the Appendix. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  12. Analysis of Blade Fragment Risk at a Wind Energy Facility

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Simms, David A [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Larwood, Scott [University of the Pacific

    2018-04-06

    An analysis was performed to determine the risk posed by wind turbine fragments on roads and buildings at the National Wind Technology Center at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The authors used a previously developed model of fragment trajectory and took into account the wind speed/direction distribution at the site and the probability of rotor failure. The risk was assessed by determining the likelihood of impact and related consequences. For both the roads and buildings, the risk varied from low to routine, which was considered acceptable. The analysis was compared with previous recommendations on wind turbine setback distances. The results showed that a setback to property lines of 2 times the overall turbine height would be acceptable. However, the setback to dwellings should probably be increased from 3 to 3.5 times the overall turbine height for an acceptable risk.

  13. ANALYSIS METHODS OF BANKRUPTCY RISK IN ROMANIAN ENERGY MINING INDUSTRY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CORICI MARIAN CATALIN

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The study is an analysis of bankruptcy risk and assessing the economic performance of the entity in charge of energy mining industry from southwest region. The scientific activity assesses the risk of bankruptcy using score’s method and some indicators witch reflecting the results obtained and elements from organization balance sheet involved in mining and energy which contributes to the stability of the national energy system. Analysis undertaken is focused on the application of the business organization models that allow a comprehensive assessment of the risk of bankruptcy and be an instrument of its forecast. In this study will be highlighted developments bankruptcy risk within the organization through the Altman model and Conan-Holder model in order to show a versatile image on the organization's ability to ensure business continuity

  14. Design and Analysis of an Electron Gun/Booster and Free Electron Laser Optical Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-09-01

    105 65. Stanford DC gun equipotentials . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106 66. Energy plots for various electrode ratios...222 121. Graphical Cross-correlation Demonstration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 223 122. 2D cross-correlation surface ...them enough energy to escape the metal’s surface . Once free of the metal, the electric field accelerates the electrons toward an anode. If the anode is

  15. Environmental Risk Assessment: Spatial Analysis of Chemical Hazards and Risks in South Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, H.; Heo, S.; Kim, M.; Lee, W. K.; Jong-Ryeul, S.

    2017-12-01

    This study identified chemical hazard and risk levels in Korea by analyzing the spatial distribution of chemical factories and accidents. The number of chemical factories and accidents in 5-km2 grids were used as the attribute value for spatial analysis. First, semi-variograms were conducted to examine spatial distribution patterns and to identify spatial autocorrelation of chemical factories and accidents. Semi-variograms explained that the spatial distribution of chemical factories and accidents were spatially autocorrelated. Second, the results of the semi-variograms were used in Ordinary Kriging to estimate chemical hazard and risk level. The level values were extracted from the Ordinary Kriging result and their spatial similarity was examined by juxtaposing the two values with respect to their location. Six peaks were identified in both the hazard and risk estimation result, and the peaks correlated with major cities in Korea. Third, the estimated hazard and risk levels were classified with geometrical interval and could be classified into four quadrants: Low Hazard and Low Risk (LHLR), Low Hazard and High Risk (LHHR), High Hazard and Low Risk (HHLR), and High Hazard and High Risk (HHHR). The 4 groups identified different chemical safety management issues in Korea; relatively safe LHLR group, many chemical reseller factories were found in HHLR group, chemical transportation accidents were in the LHHR group, and an abundance of factories and accidents were in the HHHR group. Each quadrant represented different safety management obstacles in Korea, and studying spatial differences can support the establishment of an efficient risk management plan.

  16. Dealing with uncertainty and pursuing superior technology options in risk management-The inherency risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helland, Aasgeir

    2009-01-01

    Current regulatory systems focus on the state of scientific evidence as the predominant factor for how to handle risks to human health and the environment. However, production and assessment of risk information are costly and time-consuming, and firms have an intrinsic disincentive to produce and distribute information about risks of their products as this could endanger their production opportunities and sales. An emphasis on more or better science may result in insufficient thought and attention going into the exploration of technology alternatives, and that risk management policies miss out on the possible achievement of a more favorable set of consequences. In this article, a method is proposed that combines risk assessment with the search for alternative technological options as a part of the risk management procedure. The method proposed is the inherency risk analysis where the first stage focuses on the original agent subject to investigation, the second stage focuses on identifying technological options whereas the third stage reviews the different alternatives, searching for the most attractive tradeoffs between costs and inherent safety. This is then used as a fundament for deciding which technology option to pursue. This method aims at providing a solution-focused, systematic technology-based approach for addressing and setting priorities for environmental problems. By combining risk assessment with a structured approach to identify superior technology options within a risk management system, the result could very well be a win-win situation for both company and the environment.

  17. Advanced ion beam analysis of materials using ion-induced fast electron

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kudo, Hiroshi; Tanabe, Atsushi; Ishihara, Toyoyuki [Tsukuba Univ., Ibaraki (Japan); and others

    1997-03-01

    Recent progress in the study of high-energy shadowing effect using ion-induced electron spectroscopy is reported with emphasis on a possibility of determination of local electronic structure in solids, which has been a difficult problem to approach with other experimental techniques. We demonstrate real-space determination of covalent-bond electron distribution in Si crystal. The analysis technique may provide a new field of ion beam analysis of solids. (author)

  18. Hierarchical Modelling of Flood Risk for Engineering Decision Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Custer, Rocco

    protection structures in the hierarchical flood protection system - is identified. To optimise the design of protection structures, fragility and vulnerability models must allow for consideration of decision alternatives. While such vulnerability models are available for large protection structures (e...... systems, as well as the implementation of the flood risk analysis methodology and the vulnerability modelling approach are illustrated with an example application. In summary, the present thesis provides a characterisation of hierarchical flood protection systems as well as several methodologies to model...... and robust. Traditional risk management solutions, e.g. dike construction, are not particularly flexible, as they are difficult to adapt to changing risk. Conversely, the recent concept of integrated flood risk management, entailing a combination of several structural and non-structural risk management...

  19. Surplus analysis of Sparre Andersen insurance risk processes

    CERN Document Server

    Willmot, Gordon E

    2017-01-01

    This carefully written monograph covers the Sparre Andersen process in an actuarial context using the renewal process as the model for claim counts. A unified reference on Sparre Andersen (renewal risk) processes is included, often missing from existing literature. The authors explore recent results and analyse various risk theoretic quantities associated with the event of ruin, including the time of ruin and the deficit of ruin. Particular attention is given to the explicit identification of defective renewal equation components, which are needed to analyse various risk theoretic quantities and are also relevant in other subject areas of applied probability such as dams and storage processes, as well as queuing theory. Aimed at researchers interested in risk/ruin theory and related areas, this work will also appeal to graduate students in classical and modern risk theory and Gerber-Shiu analysis.

  20. Hierarchic Analysis Method to Evaluate Rock Burst Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming Ji

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to reasonably evaluate the risk of rock bursts in mines, the factors impacting rock bursts and the existing grading criterion on the risk of rock bursts were studied. By building a model of hierarchic analysis method, the natural factors, technology factors, and management factors that influence rock bursts were analyzed and researched, which determined the degree of each factor’s influence (i.e., weight and comprehensive index. Then the grade of rock burst risk was assessed. The results showed that the assessment level generated by the model accurately reflected the actual risk degree of rock bursts in mines. The model improved the maneuverability and practicability of existing evaluation criteria and also enhanced the accuracy and science of rock burst risk assessment.

  1. Case studies: Risk-based analysis of technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wagner, D.P.; Minton, L.A.; Gaertner, J.P.

    1987-01-01

    The SOCRATES computer program uses the results of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) or a system level risk analysis to calculate changes in risk due to changes in the surveillance test interval and/or the allowed outage time stated in the technical specification. The computer program can accommodate various testing strategies (such as staggered or simultaneous testing) to allow modeling of component testing as it is carried out at a plant. The methods and computer program are an integral part of a larger decision process aimed at determining benefits from technical specification changes. These benefits can include cost savings to the utilities by reducing forced shutdowns with no adverse impacts on risk. Three summaries of case study applications are included to demonstrate the types of results that can be achieved through risk-based evaluation of technical specifications. (orig.)

  2. Risk factor analysis of equine strongyle resistance to anthelmintics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Sallé

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Intestinal strongyles are the most problematic endoparasites of equids as a result of their wide distribution and the spread of resistant isolates throughout the world. While abundant literature can be found on the extent of anthelmintic resistance across continents, empirical knowledge about associated risk factors is missing. This study brought together results from anthelmintic efficacy testing and risk factor analysis to provide evidence-based guidelines in the field. It involved 688 horses from 39 French horse farms and riding schools to both estimate Faecal Egg Count Reduction (FECR after anthelmintic treatment and to interview farm and riding school managers about their practices. Risk factors associated with reduced anthelmintic efficacy in equine strongyles were estimated across drugs using a marginal modelling approach. Results demonstrated ivermectin efficacy (96.3% ± 14.5% FECR, the inefficacy of fenbendazole (42.8% ± 33.4% FECR and an intermediate profile for pyrantel (90.3% ± 19.6% FECR. Risk factor analysis provided support to advocate for FEC-based treatment regimens combined with individual anthelmintic dosage and the enforcement of tighter biosecurity around horse introduction. The combination of these measures resulted in a decreased risk of drug resistance (relative risk of 0.57, p = 0.02. Premises falling under this typology also relied more on their veterinarians suggesting practitionners play an important role in the sustainability of anthelmintic usage. Similarly, drug resistance risk was halved in premises with frequent pasture rotation and with stocking rate below five horses/ha (relative risk of 0.53, p < 0.01. This is the first empirical risk factor analysis for anthelmintic resistance in equids. Our findings should guide the implementation of more sustained strongyle management in the field. Keywords: Horse, Nematode, Anthelmintic resistance, Strongyle, Cyathostomin

  3. Health Risks Awareness of Electronic Waste Workers in the Informal Sector in Nigeria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohajinwa, Chimere M; Van Bodegom, Peter M; Vijver, Martina G; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M

    2017-08-13

    Insight into the health risk awareness levels of e-waste workers is important as it may offer opportunities for better e-waste recycling management strategies to reduce the health effects of informal e-waste recycling. Therefore, this study assessed the knowledge, attitude, and practices associated with occupational health risk awareness of e-waste workers compared with a control group (butchers) in the informal sector in Nigeria. A cross-sectional study was used to assess health risk awareness of 279 e-waste workers (repairers and dismantlers) and 221 butchers from the informal sector in three locations in Nigeria in 2015. A questionnaire was used to obtain information on socio-demographic backgrounds, occupational history, knowledge, attitude, and work practices. The data was analysed using Analysis of Variance. The three job designations had significantly different knowledge, attitude, and practice mean scores ( p = 0.000), with butchers consistently having the highest mean scores. Only 43% of e-waste workers could mention one or more Personal Protective Equipment needed for their job compared with 70% of the butchers. The health risk awareness level of the e-waste workers was significantly lower compared with their counterparts in the same informal sector. A positive correlation existed between the workers' knowledge and their attitude and practice. Therefore, increasing the workers' knowledge may decrease risky practices.

  4. Advanced uncertainty modelling for container port risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alyami, Hani; Yang, Zaili; Riahi, Ramin; Bonsall, Stephen; Wang, Jin

    2016-08-13

    Globalization has led to a rapid increase of container movements in seaports. Risks in seaports need to be appropriately addressed to ensure economic wealth, operational efficiency, and personnel safety. As a result, the safety performance of a Container Terminal Operational System (CTOS) plays a growing role in improving the efficiency of international trade. This paper proposes a novel method to facilitate the application of Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) in assessing the safety performance of CTOS. The new approach is developed through incorporating a Fuzzy Rule-Based Bayesian Network (FRBN) with Evidential Reasoning (ER) in a complementary manner. The former provides a realistic and flexible method to describe input failure information for risk estimates of individual hazardous events (HEs) at the bottom level of a risk analysis hierarchy. The latter is used to aggregate HEs safety estimates collectively, allowing dynamic risk-based decision support in CTOS from a systematic perspective. The novel feature of the proposed method, compared to those in traditional port risk analysis lies in a dynamic model capable of dealing with continually changing operational conditions in ports. More importantly, a new sensitivity analysis method is developed and carried out to rank the HEs by taking into account their specific risk estimations (locally) and their Risk Influence (RI) to a port's safety system (globally). Due to its generality, the new approach can be tailored for a wide range of applications in different safety and reliability engineering and management systems, particularly when real time risk ranking is required to measure, predict, and improve the associated system safety performance. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Multi-hazard risk analysis for management strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kappes, M.; Keiler, M.; Bell, R.; Glade, T.

    2009-04-01

    Risk management is very often operating in a reactive way, responding to an event, instead of proactive starting with risk analysis and building up the whole process of risk evaluation, prevention, event management and regeneration. Since damage and losses from natural hazards raise continuously more and more studies, concepts (e.g. Switzerland or South Tyrol-Bolozano) and software packages (e.g. ARMAGEDOM, HAZUS or RiskScape) are developed to guide, standardize and facilitate the risk analysis. But these approaches focus on different aspects and are mostly closely adapted to the situation (legislation, organization of the administration, specific processes etc.) of the specific country or region. We propose in this study the development of a flexible methodology for multi-hazard risk analysis, identifying the stakeholders and their needs, processes and their characteristics, modeling approaches as well as incoherencies occurring by combining all these different aspects. Based on this concept a flexible software package will be established consisting of ArcGIS as central base and being complemented by various modules for hazard modeling, vulnerability assessment and risk calculation. Not all modules will be developed newly but taken from the current state-of-the-art and connected or integrated into ArcGIS. For this purpose two study sites, Valtellina in Italy and Bacelonnette in France, were chosen and the hazards types debris flows, rockfalls, landslides, avalanches and floods are planned to be included in the tool for a regional multi-hazard risk analysis. Since the central idea of this tool is its flexibility this will only be a first step, in the future further processes and scales can be included and the instrument thus adapted to any study site.

  6. RISK LEVEL ANALYSIS ON THE PREVENTIVE EROSION CAPACITY OF BRIDGES

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    Deficiency of the Preventive Erosion Capacity (PEC) of a bridge pier is the main factor leading to bridge failures. In this paper, the PEC of bridge piers was analyzed using the stochastic analysis method. The definitions of the reliability and risk level of a bridge pier subjected to water erosion were proposed and a computational model for erosion depth and risk level in was suggested.

  7. Chronic wasting disease risk analysis workshop: An integrative approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gillette, Shana; Dein, Joshua; Salman, Mo; Richards, Bryan; Duarte, Paulo

    2004-01-01

    Risk analysis tools have been successfully used to determine the potential hazard associated with disease introductions and have facilitated management decisions designed to limit the potential for disease introduction. Chronic Wasting Disease (CWD) poses significant challenges for resource managers due to an incomplete understanding of disease etiology and epidemiology and the complexity of management and political jurisdictions. Tools designed specifically to assess the risk of CWD introduction would be of great value to policy makers in areas where CWD has not been detected.

  8. State of the art in benefit-risk analysis: introduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verhagen, H; Tijhuis, M J; Gunnlaugsdóttir, H; Kalogeras, N; Leino, O; Luteijn, J M; Magnússon, S H; Odekerken, G; Pohjola, M V; Tuomisto, J T; Ueland, Ø; White, B C; Holm, F

    2012-01-01

    Risk-taking is normal in everyday life if there are associated (perceived) benefits. Benefit-Risk Analysis (BRA) compares the risk of a situation to its related benefits and addresses the acceptability of the risk. Over the past years BRA in relation to food and food ingredients has gained attention. Food, and even the same food ingredient, may confer both beneficial and adverse effects. Measures directed at food safety may lead to suboptimal or insufficient levels of ingredients from a benefit perspective. In BRA, benefits and risks of food (ingredients) are assessed in one go and may conditionally be expressed into one currency. This allows the comparison of adverse and beneficial effects to be qualitative and quantitative. A BRA should help policy-makers to make more informed and balanced benefit-risk management decisions. Not allowing food benefits to occur in order to guarantee food safety is a risk management decision much the same as accepting some risk in order to achieve more benefits. BRA in food and nutrition is making progress, but difficulties remain. The field may benefit from looking across its borders to learn from other research areas. The BEPRARIBEAN project (Best Practices for Risk-Benefit Analysis: experience from out of food into food; http://en.opasnet.org/w/Bepraribean) aims to do so, by working together with Medicines, Food Microbiology, Environmental Health, Economics & Marketing-Finance and Consumer Perception. All perspectives are reviewed and subsequently integrated to identify opportunities for further development of BRA for food and food ingredients. Interesting issues that emerge are the varying degrees of risk that are deemed acceptable within the areas and the trend towards more open and participatory BRA processes. A set of 6 'state of the art' papers covering the above areas and a paper integrating the separate (re)views are published in this volume. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Automated procedure for performing computer security risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, S.T.; Lim, J.J.

    1984-05-01

    Computers, the invisible backbone of nuclear safeguards, monitor and control plant operations and support many materials accounting systems. Our automated procedure to assess computer security effectiveness differs from traditional risk analysis methods. The system is modeled as an interactive questionnaire, fully automated on a portable microcomputer. A set of modular event trees links the questionnaire to the risk assessment. Qualitative scores are obtained for target vulnerability, and qualitative impact measures are evaluated for a spectrum of threat-target pairs. These are then combined by a linguistic algebra to provide an accurate and meaningful risk measure. 12 references, 7 figures

  10. Risk Analysis and Decision Making FY 2013 Milestone Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.; Dale, Crystal; Jones, Edward; Thompson, J.

    2013-06-01

    Risk analysis and decision making is one of the critical objectives of CCSI, which seeks to use information from science-based models with quantified uncertainty to inform decision makers who are making large capital investments. The goal of this task is to develop tools and capabilities to facilitate the development of risk models tailored for carbon capture technologies, quantify the uncertainty of model predictions, and estimate the technical and financial risks associated with the system. This effort aims to reduce costs by identifying smarter demonstrations, which could accelerate development and deployment of the technology by several years.

  11. Analysis of interactions among barriers in project risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dandage, Rahul V.; Mantha, Shankar S.; Rane, Santosh B.; Bhoola, Vanita

    2018-03-01

    In the context of the scope, time, cost, and quality constraints, failure is not uncommon in project management. While small projects have 70% chances of success, large projects virtually have no chance of meeting the quadruple constraints. While there is no dearth of research on project risk management, the manifestation of barriers to project risk management is a less dwelt topic. The success of project management is oftentimes based on the understanding of barriers to effective risk management, application of appropriate risk management methodology, proactive leadership to avoid barriers, workers' attitude, adequate resources, organizational culture, and involvement of top management. This paper represents various risk categories and barriers to risk management in domestic and international projects through literature survey and feedback from project professionals. After analysing the various modelling methods used in project risk management literature, interpretive structural modelling (ISM) and MICMAC analysis have been used to analyse interactions among the barriers and prioritize them. The analysis indicates that lack of top management support, lack of formal training, and lack of addressing cultural differences are the high priority barriers, among many others.

  12. Gambler Risk Perception: A Mental Model and Grounded Theory Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spurrier, Michael; Blaszczynski, Alexander; Rhodes, Paul

    2015-09-01

    Few studies have investigated how gamblers perceive risk or the role of risk perception in disordered gambling. The purpose of the current study therefore was to obtain data on lay gamblers' beliefs on these variables and their effects on decision-making, behaviour, and disordered gambling aetiology. Fifteen regular lay gamblers (non-problem/low risk, moderate risk and problem gamblers) completed a semi-structured interview following mental models and grounded theory methodologies. Gambler interview data was compared to an expert 'map' of risk-perception, to identify comparative gaps or differences associated with harmful or safe gambling. Systematic overlapping processes of data gathering and analysis were used to iteratively extend, saturate, test for exception, and verify concepts and themes emerging from the data. The preliminary findings suggested that gambler accounts supported the presence of expert conceptual constructs, and to some degree the role of risk perception in protecting against or increasing vulnerability to harm and disordered gambling. Gambler accounts of causality, meaning, motivation, and strategy were highly idiosyncratic, and often contained content inconsistent with measures of disordered gambling. Disordered gambling appears heavily influenced by relative underestimation of risk and overvaluation of gambling, based on explicit and implicit analysis, and deliberate, innate, contextual, and learned processing evaluations and biases.

  13. Dietary patterns and depression risk: A meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ye; Lv, Mei-Rong; Wei, Yan-Jin; Sun, Ling; Zhang, Ji-Xiang; Zhang, Huai-Guo; Li, Bin

    2017-07-01

    Although some studies have reported potential associations of dietary patterns with depression risk, a consistent perspective hasn't been estimated to date. Therefore, we conducted this meta-analysis to evaluate the relation between dietary patterns and the risk of depression. A literature research was conducted searching MEDLINE and EMBASE databases up to September 2016. In total, 21 studies from ten countries met the inclusion criteria and were included in the present meta-analysis. A dietary pattern characterized by a high intakes of fruit, vegetables, whole grain, fish, olive oil, low-fat dairy and antioxidants and low intakes of animal foods was apparently associated with a decreased risk of depression. A dietary pattern characterized by a high consumption of red and/or processed meat, refined grains, sweets, high-fat dairy products, butter, potatoes and high-fat gravy, and low intakes of fruits and vegetables is associated with an increased risk of depression. The results of this meta-analysis suggest that healthy pattern may decrease the risk of depression, whereas western-style may increase the risk of depression. However, more randomized controlled trails and cohort studies are urgently required to confirm this findings. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Is adaptation or transformation needed? Active nanomaterials and risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuzma, Jennifer; Roberts, John Patrick

    2016-01-01

    Nanotechnology has been a key area of funding and policy for the United States and globally for the past two decades. Since nanotechnology research and development became a focus and nanoproducts began to permeate the market, scholars and scientists have been concerned about how to assess the risks that they may pose to human health and the environment. The newest generation of nanomaterials includes biomolecules that can respond to and influence their environments, and there is a need to explore whether and how existing risk-analysis frameworks are challenged by such novelty. To fill this niche, we used a modified approach of upstream oversight assessment (UOA), a subset of anticipatory governance. We first selected case studies of “active nanomaterials,” that are early in research and development and designed for use in multiple sectors, and then considered them under several, key risk-analysis frameworks. We found two ways in which the cases challenge the frameworks. The first category relates to how to assess risk under a narrow framing of the term (direct health and environmental harm), and the second involves the definition of what constitutes a “risk” worthy of assessment and consideration in decision making. In light of these challenges, we propose some changes for risk analysis in the face of active nanostructures in order to improve risk governance.

  15. Is adaptation or transformation needed? Active nanomaterials and risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kuzma, Jennifer, E-mail: jkuzma@ncsu.edu [North Carolina State University, School of Public and International Affairs and Genetic Engineering and Society Center (United States); Roberts, John Patrick [North Carolina State University, School of Public and International Affairs (United States)

    2016-07-15

    Nanotechnology has been a key area of funding and policy for the United States and globally for the past two decades. Since nanotechnology research and development became a focus and nanoproducts began to permeate the market, scholars and scientists have been concerned about how to assess the risks that they may pose to human health and the environment. The newest generation of nanomaterials includes biomolecules that can respond to and influence their environments, and there is a need to explore whether and how existing risk-analysis frameworks are challenged by such novelty. To fill this niche, we used a modified approach of upstream oversight assessment (UOA), a subset of anticipatory governance. We first selected case studies of “active nanomaterials,” that are early in research and development and designed for use in multiple sectors, and then considered them under several, key risk-analysis frameworks. We found two ways in which the cases challenge the frameworks. The first category relates to how to assess risk under a narrow framing of the term (direct health and environmental harm), and the second involves the definition of what constitutes a “risk” worthy of assessment and consideration in decision making. In light of these challenges, we propose some changes for risk analysis in the face of active nanostructures in order to improve risk governance.

  16. Benefit-Risk Analysis for Decision-Making: An Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raju, G K; Gurumurthi, K; Domike, R

    2016-12-01

    The analysis of benefit and risk is an important aspect of decision-making throughout the drug lifecycle. In this work, the use of a benefit-risk analysis approach to support decision-making was explored. The proposed approach builds on the qualitative US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approach to include a more explicit analysis based on international standards and guidance that enables aggregation and comparison of benefit and risk on a common basis and a lifecycle focus. The approach is demonstrated on six decisions over the lifecycle (e.g., accelerated approval, withdrawal, and traditional approval) using two case studies: natalizumab for multiple sclerosis (MS) and bedaquiline for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB). © 2016 American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

  17. Flood risk analysis procedure for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wagner, D.P.

    1982-01-01

    This paper describes a methodology and procedure for determining the impact of floods on nuclear power plant risk. The procedures are based on techniques of fault tree and event tree analysis and use the logic of these techniques to determine the effects of a flood on system failure probability and accident sequence occurrence frequency. The methodology can be applied independently or as an add-on analysis for an existing risk assessment. Each stage of the analysis yields useful results such as the critical flood level, failure flood level, and the flood's contribution to accident sequence occurrence frequency. The results of applications show the effects of floods on the risk from nuclear power plants analyzed in the Reactor Safety Study

  18. A thermodynamical analysis of rf current drive with fast electrons

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bizarro, João P. S., E-mail: bizarro@ipfn.tecnico.ulisboa.pt [Instituto de Plasmas e Fusão Nuclear, Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, 1049-001 Lisboa (Portugal)

    2015-08-15

    The problem of rf current drive (CD) by pushing fast electrons with high-parallel-phase-velocity waves, such as lower-hybrid (LH) or electron-cyclotron (EC) waves, is revisited using the first and second laws, the former to retrieve the well-known one-dimensional (1D) steady-state CD efficiency, and the latter to calculate a lower bound for the rate of entropy production when approaching steady state. The laws of thermodynamics are written in a form that explicitly takes care of frictional dissipation and are thus applied to a population of fast electrons evolving under the influence of a dc electric field, rf waves, and collisions while in contact with a thermal, Maxwellian reservoir with a well-defined temperature. Besides the laws of macroscopic thermodynamics, there is recourse to basic elements of kinetic theory only, being assumed a residual dc electric field and a strong rf drive, capable of sustaining in the resonant region, where waves interact with electrons, a raised fast-electron tail distribution, which becomes an essentially flat plateau in the case of the 1D theory for LHCD. Within the 1D model, particularly suited for LHCD as it solely retains fast-electron dynamics in velocity space parallel to the ambient magnetic field, an H theorem for rf CD is also derived, which is written in different forms, and additional physics is recovered, such as the synergy between the dc and rf power sources, including the rf-induced hot conductivity, as well as the equation for electron-bulk heating. As much as possible 1D results are extended to 2D, to account for ECCD by also considering fast-electron velocity-space dynamics in the direction perpendicular to the magnetic field, which leads to a detailed discussion on how the definition of an rf-induced conductivity may depend on whether one works at constant rf current or power. Moreover, working out the collisional dissipated power and entropy-production rate written in terms of the fast-electron distribution, it

  19. Test-electron analysis of the magnetic reconnection topology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borgogno, D.; Perona, A.; Grasso, D.

    2017-12-01

    Three-dimensional (3D) investigations of the magnetic reconnection field topology in space and laboratory plasmas have identified the abidance of magnetic coherent structures in the stochastic region, which develop during the nonlinear stage of the reconnection process. Further analytical and numerical analyses highlighted the efficacy of some of these structures in limiting the magnetic transport. The question then arises as to what is the possible role played by these patterns in the dynamics of the plasma particles populating the chaotic region. In order to explore this aspect, we provide a detailed description of the nonlinear 3D magnetic field topology in a collisionless magnetic reconnection event with a strong guide field. In parallel, we study the evolution of a population of test electrons in the guiding-center approximation all along the reconnection process. In particular, we focus on the nonlinear spatial redistribution of the initially thermal electrons and show how the electron dynamics in the stochastic region depends on the sign and on the value of their velocities. While the particles with the highest positive speed populate the coherent current structures that survive in the chaotic sea, the presence of the manifolds calculated in the stochastic region defines the confinement area for the electrons with the largest negative velocity. These results stress the link between the magnetic topology and the electron motion and contribute to the overall picture of a non-stationary fluid magnetic reconnection description in a geometry proper to physical systems where the effects of the curvature can be neglected.

  20. System risk evolution analysis and risk critical event identification based on event sequence diagram

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luo, Pengcheng; Hu, Yang

    2013-01-01

    During system operation, the environmental, operational and usage conditions are time-varying, which causes the fluctuations of the system state variables (SSVs). These fluctuations change the accidents’ probabilities and then result in the system risk evolution (SRE). This inherent relation makes it feasible to realize risk control by monitoring the SSVs in real time, herein, the quantitative analysis of SRE is essential. Besides, some events in the process of SRE are critical to system risk, because they act like the “demarcative points” of safety and accident, and this characteristic makes each of them a key point of risk control. Therefore, analysis of SRE and identification of risk critical events (RCEs) are remarkably meaningful to ensure the system to operate safely. In this context, an event sequence diagram (ESD) based method of SRE analysis and the related Monte Carlo solution are presented; RCE and risk sensitive variable (RSV) are defined, and the corresponding identification methods are also proposed. Finally, the proposed approaches are exemplified with an accident scenario of an aircraft getting into the icing region

  1. Dietary patterns and colorectal cancer risk: a meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Yu-Liang; Shu, Long; Zheng, Pei-Fen; Zhang, Xiao-Yan; Si, Cai-Juan; Yu, Xiao-Long; Gao, Wei; Zhang, Lun

    2017-05-01

    The analysis of dietary patterns has recently drawn considerable attention as a method of investigating the association between the overall whole diet and the risk of colorectal cancer. However, the results have yielded conflicting findings. Here, we carried out a meta-analysis to identify the association between dietary patterns and the risk of colorectal cancer. A total of 40 studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria and were included in this meta-analysis. The highest category of 'healthy' dietary pattern compared with the lowest category was apparently associated with a decreased risk for colorectal cancer [odds ratio (OR)=0.75; confidence interval (CI): 0.68-0.83; Pcolorectal cancer was shown for the highest compared with the lowest category of a 'western-style' dietary pattern (OR=1.40; CI: 1.26-1.56; Pcolorectal cancer in the highest compared with the lowest category of 'alcohol-consumption' pattern (OR=1.44; CI: 1.13-1.82; P=0.003). The results of this meta-analysis indicate that a 'healthy' dietary pattern may decrease the risk of colorectal cancer, whereas 'western-style' and 'alcohol-consumption' patterns may increase the risk of colorectal cancer.

  2. High Birth Weight Increases the Risk for Bone Tumor: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Songfeng Chen

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available There have been several epidemiologic studies on the relationship between high birth weight and the risk for bone tumor in the past decades. However, due to the rarity of bone tumors, the sample size of individual studies was generally too small for reliable conclusions. Therefore, we have performed a meta-analysis to pool all published data on electronic databases with the purpose to clarify the potential relationship. According to the inclusion and exclusion criteria, 18 independent studies with more than 2796 cases were included. As a result, high birth weight was found to increase the risk for bone tumor with an Odds Ratio (OR of 1.13, with the 95% confidence interval (95% CI ranging from 1.01 to 1.27. The OR of bone tumor for an increase of 500 gram of birth weight was 1.01 (95% CI 1.00–1.02; p = 0.048 for linear trend. Interestingly, individuals with high birth weight had a greater risk for osteosarcoma (OR = 1.22, 95% CI 1.06–1.40, p = 0.006 than those with normal birth weight. In addition, in the subgroup analysis by geographical region, elevated risk was detected among Europeans (OR = 1.14, 95% CI 1.00–1.29, p = 0.049. The present meta-analysis supported a positive association between high birth weight and bone tumor risk.

  3. Quasilinear analysis of absorption of ion Bernstein waves by electrons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cardinali, A.; Paoletti, F.; Bernabei, S.; Ono, M.

    1995-01-01

    The effects induced on plasma electrons by an externally launched ion Bernstein wave (IBW), in the presence of a lower hybrid wave (LHW) in the current drive regime, are studied by analytical integration of the IBW ray-tracing equations along with the amplitude transport equation (Poynting theorem). The electric field amplitude parallel and perpendicular to the external magnetic field, the quasilinear diffusion coefficient, and the modified electron distribution function are analytically calculated in the case of IBW. The analytical calculation is compared to the numerical solution obtained by using a 2-D Fokker-Planck code for the distribution function, without any approximation for the collision operator. The synergy between the IBW and LHW can be accounted for, and the absorption of the IBW power when the electron distribution function presents a tail generated by the LHW in the current drive regime can be calculated

  4. Simulation and analysis of secondary emission microwave electron gun

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    He Wencan; Pei Yuanji; Jin Kai; Wu Congfeng

    2001-01-01

    The development of high-current, short-duration pulses of electrons has been a challenging problem for many year. Micro-pulse-gun (MPG) is a novel concept that employs the resonant amplification of an electron current by secondary electron emission in a RE cavity. Using the computation code URMEL-T, several kinds of RF cavities under the frequency of 2856 MHz were calculated and optimized, the magnetic and electric field distribution in them were got. Through particle-in-cell (PIC) simulation, the self-bunching process in a MPG was proved, the relationship between the cavity length and selected phase and the relationship between the peak electric field and selected phase were got. With cathode material of high secondary emission coefficient, the MPG can produce high current densities (1132-5303 A/cm 2 ) and short pulses (3.15-10 ps)

  5. General overview and perspectives of risk analysis in Cuba

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Torres, A.; Rodriguez, J.M.; Vilaragut, J.J.; Valhuerdi, C.

    1995-01-01

    This papers shows a general overview of the application of risk analysis techniques in some potentially dangerous industries in Cuba. This paper summarizes the experiences of these sectors in the risk analysis with different specification levels and different approaches. Some experiences in the application of these analyses in the nuclear and aeronautical industries are shown. Some analyses of consequences in cases of accidents in the chemical industries in order to work due and improve emergency plans for responding to accident situations are presented in a more succinct manner. Also the perspectives to develop some of these tendencies and cooperation forms between them are summarized

  6. Application of Failure Mode and Effects Analysis to Intraoperative Radiation Therapy Using Mobile Electron Linear Accelerators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ciocca, Mario; Cantone, Marie-Claire; Veronese, Ivan; Cattani, Federica; Pedroli, Guido; Molinelli, Silvia; Vitolo, Viviana; Orecchia, Roberto

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) represents a prospective approach for risk assessment. A multidisciplinary working group of the Italian Association for Medical Physics applied FMEA to electron beam intraoperative radiation therapy (IORT) delivered using mobile linear accelerators, aiming at preventing accidental exposures to the patient. Methods and Materials: FMEA was applied to the IORT process, for the stages of the treatment delivery and verification, and consisted of three steps: 1) identification of the involved subprocesses; 2) identification and ranking of the potential failure modes, together with their causes and effects, using the risk probability number (RPN) scoring system, based on the product of three parameters (severity, frequency of occurrence and detectability, each ranging from 1 to 10); 3) identification of additional safety measures to be proposed for process quality and safety improvement. RPN upper threshold for little concern of risk was set at 125. Results: Twenty-four subprocesses were identified. Ten potential failure modes were found and scored, in terms of RPN, in the range of 42–216. The most critical failure modes consisted of internal shield misalignment, wrong Monitor Unit calculation and incorrect data entry at treatment console. Potential causes of failure included shield displacement, human errors, such as underestimation of CTV extension, mainly because of lack of adequate training and time pressures, failure in the communication between operators, and machine malfunctioning. The main effects of failure were represented by CTV underdose, wrong dose distribution and/or delivery, unintended normal tissue irradiation. As additional safety measures, the utilization of a dedicated staff for IORT, double-checking of MU calculation and data entry and finally implementation of in vivo dosimetry were suggested. Conclusions: FMEA appeared as a useful tool for prospective evaluation of patient safety in radiotherapy

  7. Aerodynamic Simulation Analysis of Unmanned Airborne Electronic Bomb

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Jiaoying; Guo, Yachao

    2017-10-01

    For microelectronic bombs for UAVs, on the basis of the use of rotors to lift the insurance on the basis of ammunition, increased tail to increase stability. The aerodynamic simulation of the outer structure of the ammunition was carried out by FLUENT software. The resistance coefficient, the lift coefficient and the pitch moment coefficient under different angle of attack and Mach number were obtained, and the aerodynamic characteristics of the electronic bomb were studied. The pressure line diagram and the velocity line diagram of the flow around the bomb are further analyzed, and the rationality of the external structure is verified, which provides a reference for the subsequent design of the electronic bomb.

  8. Cardiometabolic risk in Canada: a detailed analysis and position paper by the cardiometabolic risk working group.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leiter, Lawrence A; Fitchett, David H; Gilbert, Richard E; Gupta, Milan; Mancini, G B John; McFarlane, Philip A; Ross, Robert; Teoh, Hwee; Verma, Subodh; Anand, Sonia; Camelon, Kathryn; Chow, Chi-Ming; Cox, Jafna L; Després, Jean-Pierre; Genest, Jacques; Harris, Stewart B; Lau, David C W; Lewanczuk, Richard; Liu, Peter P; Lonn, Eva M; McPherson, Ruth; Poirier, Paul; Qaadri, Shafiq; Rabasa-Lhoret, Rémi; Rabkin, Simon W; Sharma, Arya M; Steele, Andrew W; Stone, James A; Tardif, Jean-Claude; Tobe, Sheldon; Ur, Ehud

    2011-01-01

    The concepts of "cardiometabolic risk," "metabolic syndrome," and "risk stratification" overlap and relate to the atherogenic process and development of type 2 diabetes. There is confusion about what these terms mean and how they can best be used to improve our understanding of cardiovascular disease treatment and prevention. With the objectives of clarifying these concepts and presenting practical strategies to identify and reduce cardiovascular risk in multiethnic patient populations, the Cardiometabolic Working Group reviewed the evidence related to emerging cardiovascular risk factors and Canadian guideline recommendations in order to present a detailed analysis and consolidated approach to the identification and management of cardiometabolic risk. The concepts related to cardiometabolic risk, pathophysiology, and strategies for identification and management (including health behaviours, pharmacotherapy, and surgery) in the multiethnic Canadian population are presented. "Global cardiometabolic risk" is proposed as an umbrella term for a comprehensive list of existing and emerging factors that predict cardiovascular disease and/or type 2 diabetes. Health behaviour interventions (weight loss, physical activity, diet, smoking cessation) in people identified at high cardiometabolic risk are of critical importance given the emerging crisis of obesity and the consequent epidemic of type 2 diabetes. Vascular protective measures (health behaviours for all patients and pharmacotherapy in appropriate patients) are essential to reduce cardiometabolic risk, and there is growing consensus that a multidisciplinary approach is needed to adequately address cardiometabolic risk factors. Health care professionals must also consider risk factors related to ethnicity in order to appropriately evaluate everyone in their diverse patient populations. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Analysis of risk factors and risk assessment for ischemic stroke recurrence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiu-ying LONG

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Objective To screen the risk factors for recurrence of ischemic stroke and to assess the risk of recurrence. Methods Essen Stroke Risk Score (ESRS was used to evaluate the risk of recurrence in 176 patients with ischemic stroke (96 cases of first onset and 80 cases of recurrence. Univariate and multivariate stepwise Logistic regression analysis was used to screen risk factors for recurrence of ischemic stroke.  Results There were significant differences between first onset group and recurrence group on age, the proportion of > 75 years old, hypertension, diabetes, coronary heart disease, peripheral angiopathy, transient ischemic attack (TIA or ischemic stroke, drinking and ESRS score (P < 0.05, for all. First onset group included one case of ESRS 0 (1.04%, 8 cases of 1 (8.33%, 39 cases of 2 (40.63%, 44 cases of 3 (45.83%, 4 cases of 4 (4.17%. Recurrence group included 2 cases of ESRS 3 (2.50%, 20 cases of 4 (25% , 37 cases of 5 (46.25% , 18 cases of 6 (22.50% , 3 cases of 7 (3.75% . There was significant difference between 2 groups (Z = -11.376, P = 0.000. Logistic regression analysis showed ESRS > 3 score was independent risk factor for recurrence of ischemic stroke (OR = 31.324, 95%CI: 3.934-249.430; P = 0.001.  Conclusions ESRS > 3 score is the independent risk factor for recurrence of ischemic stroke. It is important to strengthen risk assessment of recurrence of ischemic stroke. To screen and control risk factors is the key to secondary prevention of ischemic stroke. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1672-6731.2016.07.011

  10. The prostate cancer risk stratification (ProCaRS) project: Recursive partitioning risk stratification analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodrigues, George; Lukka, Himu; Warde, Padraig; Brundage, Michael; Souhami, Luis; Crook, Juanita; Cury, Fabio; Catton, Charles; Mok, Gary; Martin, Andre-Guy; Vigneault, Eric; Morris, Jim; Warner, Andrew; Gonzalez Maldonado, Sandra; Pickles, Tom

    2013-01-01

    Background: The Genitourinary Radiation Oncologists of Canada (GUROC) published a three-group risk stratification (RS) system to assist prostate cancer decision-making in 2001. The objective of this project is to use the ProCaRS database to statistically model the predictive accuracy and clinical utility of a proposed new multi-group RS schema. Methods: The RS analyses utilized the ProCaRS database that consists of 7974 patients from four Canadian institutions. Recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) was utilized to explore the sub-stratification of groups defined by the existing three-group GUROC scheme. 10-fold cross-validated C-indices and the Net Reclassification Index were both used to assess multivariable models and compare the predictive accuracy of existing and proposed RS systems, respectively. Results: The recursive partitioning analysis has suggested that the existing GUROC classification system could be altered to accommodate as many as six separate and statistical unique groups based on differences in BFFS (C-index 0.67 and AUC 0.70). GUROC low-risk patients would be divided into new favorable-low and low-risk groups based on PSA ⩽6 and PSA >6. GUROC intermediate-risk patients can be subclassified into low-intermediate and high-intermediate groups. GUROC high-intermediate-risk is defined as existing GUROC intermediate-risk with PSA >=10 AND either T2b/c disease or T1T2a disease with Gleason 7. GUROC high-risk patients would be subclassified into an additional extreme-risk group (GUROC high-risk AND (positive cores ⩾87.5% OR PSA >30). Conclusions: Proposed RS subcategories have been identified by a RPA of the ProCaRS database

  11. [Competitive karate and the risk of HIV infection--review, risk analysis and risk minimizing strategies].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller-Rath, R; Mumme, T; Miltner, O; Skobel, E

    2004-03-01

    Bleeding facial injuries are not uncommon in competitive karate. Nevertheless, the risk of an infection with HIV is extremely low. Guidelines about the prevention of HIV infections are presented. Especially in contact sports and martial arts the athletes, judges and staff have to recognize and employ these recommendations. Bleeding wounds of the hands due to contact with the opponents teeth can be minimized by fist padding.

  12. Combining UV photodissociation with electron transfer for peptide structure analysis

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Shaffer, C. J.; Marek, Aleš; Pepin, R.; Slováková, K.; Tureček, F.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 50, č. 3 (2015), s. 470-475 ISSN 1076-5174 Institutional support: RVO:61388963 Keywords : electron transfer dissociation * laser photodissociation * peptide ions * cation radical * chromophores * isomer distinction Subject RIV: CE - Biochemistry Impact factor: 2.541, year: 2015

  13. Source theory analysis of electron--positron annihilation experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schwinger, J.

    1975-01-01

    The phenomenological viewpoint already applied to deep inelastic scattering is extended to the discussion of electron-positron annihilation experiments. Some heuristic arguments lead to simple forms for the pion differential cross section that are in reasonable accord with the published experimental data in the energy interval 3 to 4.8 GeV

  14. A security analysis of the Dutch electronic patient record system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van 't Noordende, G.

    2010-01-01

    In this article, we analyze the security architecture of the Dutch Electronic Patient Dossier (EPD) system. Intended as a national infrastructure for exchanging medical patient records among authorized parties (particularly, physicians), the EPD has to address a number of requirements, ranging from

  15. Graphical analysis of electron inertia induced acoustic instability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karmakar, P.K.; Deka, U.; Dwivedi, C.B.

    2005-01-01

    Recently, the practical significance of the asymptotic limit of m e /m i →0 for electron density distribution has been judged in a two-component plasma system with drifting ions. It is reported that in the presence of drifting ions with drift speed exceeding the ion acoustic wave speed, the electron inertial delay effect facilitates the resonance coupling of the usual fluid ion acoustic mode with the ion-beam mode. In this contribution the same instability is analyzed by graphical and numerical methods. This is to note that the obtained dispersion relation differs from those of the other known normal modes of low frequency ion plasma oscillations and waves. This is due to consideration of electron inertial delay in derivation of the dispersion relation of the ion acoustic wave fluctuations. Numerical calculations of the dispersion relation and wave energy are carried out to depict the graphical appearance of poles and positive-negative energy modes. It is found that the electron inertia induced ion acoustic wave instability arises out of linear resonance coupling between the negative and positive energy modes. Characterization of the resonance nature of the instability in Mach number space for different wave numbers of the ion acoustic mode is presented

  16. Quantitative analysis of complexes in electron irradiated CZ silicon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Inoue, N.; Ohyama, H.; Goto, Y.; Sugiyama, T.

    2007-01-01

    Complexes in helium or electron irradiated silicon are quantitatively analyzed by highly sensitive and accurate infrared (IR) absorption spectroscopy. Carbon concentration (1x10 15 -1x10 17 cm -3 ) and helium dose (5x10 12 -5x10 13 cm -2 ) or electron dose (1x10 15 -1x10 17 cm -2 ) are changed by two orders of magnitude in relatively low regime compared to the previous works. It is demonstrated that the carbon-related complex in low carbon concentration silicon of commercial grade with low electron dose can be detected clearly. Concentration of these complexes is estimated. It is clarified that the complex configuration and thermal behavior in low carbon and low dose samples is simple and almost confined within the individual complex family compared to those in high concentration and high dose samples. Well-established complex behavior in electron-irradiated sample is compared to that in He-irradiated samples, obtained by deep level transient spectroscopy (DLTS) or cathodoluminescence (CL), which had close relation to the Si power device performance

  17. Analysis of magnetic electron lens with secant hyperbolic field distribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pany, S.S.; Ahmed, Z.; Dubey, B.P.

    2014-01-01

    Electron-optical imaging instruments like Scanning Electron Microscope (SEM) and Transmission Electron Microscope (TEM) use specially designed solenoid electromagnets for focusing of the electron beam. Indicators of imaging performance of these instruments, like spatial resolution, have a strong correlation with the focal characteristics of the magnetic lenses, which in turn have been shown to be sensitive to the details of the spatial distribution of the axial magnetic field. Owing to the complexity of designing practical lenses, empirical mathematical expressions are important to obtain the desired focal properties. Thus the degree of accuracy of such models in representing the actual field distribution determines accuracy of the calculations and ultimately the performance of the lens. Historically, the mathematical models proposed by Glaser [1] and Ramberg [2] have been extensively used. In this paper the authors discuss another model with a secant-hyperbolic type magnetic field distribution function, and present a comparison between models, utilizing results from finite element-based field simulations as the reference for evaluating performance

  18. Preservation of Electronic Scholarly Publishing: An Analysis of Three Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Honey, Sadie L.

    2005-01-01

    Scholars publish in journals to preserve their work and to make sure that it is available for current and future researchers. More and more of this publishing is done in electronic format. Libraries, the institutions that have traditionally overseen the preservation of print publications, are now struggling with the preservation of digital…

  19. Levels and risk factors of antimony contamination in human hair from an electronic waste recycling area, Guiyu, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Yue; Ni, Wenqing; Chen, Yaowen; Wang, Xiaoling; Zhang, Jingwen; Wu, Kusheng

    2015-05-01

    The primitive electronic waste (e-waste) recycling has brought a series of environmental pollutants in Guiyu, China. Antimony is one of the important metal contaminants and has aroused the global concerns recently. We aimed to investigate concentrations of antimony in human hair from Guiyu and compared them with those from a control area where no e-waste recycling exists, and assessed the potential risk factors. A total of 205 human hair samples from Guiyu and 80 samples from Jinping were collected for analysis. All volunteers were asked to complete a questionnaire including socio-demographic characteristics and other possible factors related to hair antimony exposure. The concentrations of hair antimony were analyzed using atomic absorption spectrophotometer. Our results indicated that the level of hair antimony in volunteers from Guiyu (median, 160.78; range, 6.99-4412.59 ng/g) was significantly higher than those from Jinping (median, 61.74; range, 2.98-628.43 ng/g). The residents who engaged in e-waste recycling activities in Guiyu had higher hair antimony concentrations than others (P recycling. Multiple stepwise regression analysis indicated that hair antimony concentrations were associated with education level (β = -0.064), the time of residence in Guiyu (β = 0.112), living house also served as e-waste workshop (β = 0.099), the work related to e-waste (β = 0.169), and smoking (β = 0.018). The elevated hair antimony concentrations implied that the residents in Guiyu might be at high risk of antimony contamination, especially the e-waste recycling workers. Work related to e-waste recycling activities and long-time residence in Guiyu contributed to the high hair antimony exposure.

  20. Analysis of Polish internet retail sites offering electronic cigarettes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zarobkiewicz, Michał Konrad; Woźniakowski, Mateusz Mariusz; Sławiński, Mirosław Aleksander; Samborski, Patryk Michał; Wawryk-Gawda, Ewelina; Jodłowska-Jędrych, Barbara

    Electronic cigarettes as possibly healthier alternative to conventional cigarettes are gaining popularity worldwide, although they are still hazardous to human health. Partly it is caused by unregulated advertising and online sales. Unfortunately it is more and more popular for youth to try electronic cigarettes. The aim of the study was to assess the marketing claims used by Polish websites offering electronic cigarettes. A search using Google search engine was performed in July 2015 for two keywords: e-papierosy [e-cigarettes] and elektroniczne papierosy [electronic cigarettes]. First 150 websites (15 pages) were listed. After initial review 86 pages met all inclusion criteria and were included in the study. Pages were searched for presence of 13 selected marketing claims as well as age-related warning and any social websites connections. Age-related warning was present on only 33.72% (n=29) websites. Two thirds has its own Facebook fan-page with average 1922.09 ± 3634.86 likes. Articles about health are available on 10.46% (n=9) websites, 53.49% (n=46) states that e-cigarettes are healthier than conventional ones, 39.53% (n=34) emphasized that during usage of e-cigarettes no tarry substances are produced. Two pages had special article in which conventional and electronic cigarettes were compared. Almost half (44.19%) remarked that e-cigarettes are cheaper in usage than conventional, one third pointed out the simplicity of usage. 32.56% advertised e-cigarettes as aid in quitting smoking. One fourth stated that e-cigarettes are harmless for surroundings. 33.72% marketed them as a way of bypassing public smoking act. 56.98% remarked the variety of liquid tastes offered. Electronic cigarettes and their rising popularity create another new possible threat for public health as the widely available information emphasize safety of e-cigarettes usage and as their availability and usage is not limited or restricted by law. electronic cigarettes, e-cigarettes, internet

  1. Risk analysis by FMEA as an element of analytical validation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Leeuwen, J F; Nauta, M J; de Kaste, D; Odekerken-Rombouts, Y M C F; Oldenhof, M T; Vredenbregt, M J; Barends, D M

    2009-12-05

    We subjected a Near-Infrared (NIR) analytical procedure used for screening drugs on authenticity to a Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA), including technical risks as well as risks related to human failure. An FMEA team broke down the NIR analytical method into process steps and identified possible failure modes for each step. Each failure mode was ranked on estimated frequency of occurrence (O), probability that the failure would remain undetected later in the process (D) and severity (S), each on a scale of 1-10. Human errors turned out to be the most common cause of failure modes. Failure risks were calculated by Risk Priority Numbers (RPNs)=O x D x S. Failure modes with the highest RPN scores were subjected to corrective actions and the FMEA was repeated, showing reductions in RPN scores and resulting in improvement indices up to 5.0. We recommend risk analysis as an addition to the usual analytical validation, as the FMEA enabled us to detect previously unidentified risks.

  2. A Big Data Analysis Approach for Rail Failure Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamshidi, Ali; Faghih-Roohi, Shahrzad; Hajizadeh, Siamak; Núñez, Alfredo; Babuska, Robert; Dollevoet, Rolf; Li, Zili; De Schutter, Bart

    2017-08-01

    Railway infrastructure monitoring is a vital task to ensure rail transportation safety. A rail failure could result in not only a considerable impact on train delays and maintenance costs, but also on safety of passengers. In this article, the aim is to assess the risk of a rail failure by analyzing a type of rail surface defect called squats that are detected automatically among the huge number of records from video cameras. We propose an image processing approach for automatic detection of squats, especially severe types that are prone to rail breaks. We measure the visual length of the squats and use them to model the failure risk. For the assessment of the rail failure risk, we estimate the probability of rail failure based on the growth of squats. Moreover, we perform severity and crack growth analyses to consider the impact of rail traffic loads on defects in three different growth scenarios. The failure risk estimations are provided for several samples of squats with different crack growth lengths on a busy rail track of the Dutch railway network. The results illustrate the practicality and efficiency of the proposed approach. © 2017 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

  3. Rocky Flats Plant Live-Fire Range Risk Analysis Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nicolosi, S.L.; Rodriguez, M.A.

    1994-04-01

    The objective of the Live-Fire Range Risk Analysis Report (RAR) is to provide an authorization basis for operation as required by DOE 5480.16. The existing Live-Fire Range does not have a safety analysis-related authorization basis. EG&G Rocky Flats, Inc. has worked with DOE and its representatives to develop a format and content description for development of an RAR for the Live-Fire Range. Development of the RAR is closely aligned with development of the design for a baffle system to control risks from errant projectiles. DOE 5480.16 requires either an RAR or a safety analysis report (SAR) for live-fire ranges. An RAR rather than a SAR was selected in order to gain flexibility to more closely address the safety analysis and conduct of operation needs for a live-fire range in a cost-effective manner.

  4. Quantitative risk analysis of a space shuttle subsystem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frank, M.V.

    1989-01-01

    This paper reports that in an attempt to investigate methods for risk management other than qualitative analysis techniques, NASA has funded pilot study quantitative risk analyses for space shuttle subsystems. The authors performed one such study of two shuttle subsystems with McDonnell Douglas Astronautics Company. The subsystems were the auxiliary power units (APU) on the orbiter, and the hydraulic power units on the solid rocket booster. The technology and results of the APU study are presented in this paper. Drawing from a rich in-flight database as well as from a wealth of tests and analyses, the study quantitatively assessed the risk of APU-initiated scenarios on the shuttle during all phases of a flight mission. Damage states of interest were loss of crew/vehicle, aborted mission, and launch scrub. A quantitative risk analysis approach to deciding on important items for risk management was contrasted with the current NASA failure mode and effects analysis/critical item list approach

  5. Mass-gathering Medicine: Risks and Patient Presentations at a 2-Day Electronic Dance Music Event.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lund, Adam; Turris, Sheila A

    2015-06-01

    Music festivals, including electronic dance music events (EDMEs), increasingly are common in Canada and internationally. Part of a US $4.5 billion industry annually, the target audience is youth and young adults aged 15-25 years. Little is known about the impact of these events on local emergency departments (EDs). Drawing on prospective data over a 2-day EDME, the authors of this study employed mixed methods to describe the case mix and prospectively compared patient presentation rate (PPR) and ambulance transfer rate (ATR) between a first aid (FA) only and a higher level of care (HLC) model. There were 20,301 ticketed attendees. Seventy patient encounters were recorded over two days. The average age was 19.1 years. Roughly 69% were female (n=48/70). Forty-six percent of those seen in the main medical area were under the age of 19 years (n=32/70). The average length of stay in the main medical area was 70.8 minutes. The overall PPR was 4.09 per 1,000 attendees. The ATR with FA only would have been 1.98; ATR with HLC model was 0.52. The presence of an on-site HLC team had a significant positive effect on avoiding ambulance transfers. Twenty-nine ambulance transfers and ED visits were avoided by the presence of an on-site HLC medical team. Reduction of impact to the public health care system was substantial. Electronic dance music events have predictable risks and patient presentations, and appropriate on-site health care resources may reduce significantly the impact on the prehospital and emergency health resources in the host community.

  6. An electronic screen for triaging adolescent substance use by risk levels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, Sharon; Weiss, Roger; Sherritt, Lon; Ziemnik, Rosemary; Spalding, Allegra; Van Hook, Shari; Shrier, Lydia A

    2014-09-01

    Screening adolescents for substance use and intervening immediately can reduce the burden of addiction and substance-related morbidity. Several screening tools have been developed to identify problem substance use for adolescents, but none have been calibrated to triage adolescents into clinically relevant risk categories to guide interventions. To describe the psychometric properties of an electronic screen and brief assessment tool that triages adolescents into 4 actionable categories regarding their experience with nontobacco substance use. Adolescent patients (age range, 12-17 years) arriving for routine medical care at 2 outpatient primary care centers and 1 outpatient center for substance use treatment at a pediatric hospital completed an electronic screening tool from June 1, 2012, through March 31, 2013, that consisted of a question on the frequency of using 8 types of drugs in the past year (Screening to Brief Intervention). Additional questions assessed severity of any past-year substance use. Patients completed a structured diagnostic interview (Composite International Diagnostic Interview-Substance Abuse Module), yielding Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (Fifth Edition) substance use diagnoses. For the entire screen and the Screening to Brief Intervention, sensitivity and specificity for identifying nontobacco substance use, substance use disorders, severe substance use disorders, and tobacco dependence were calculated using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview-Substance Abuse Module as the criterion standard. Of 340 patients invited to participate, 216 (63.5%) enrolled in the study. Sensitivity and specificity were 100% and 84% (95% CI, 76%-89%) for identifying nontobacco substance use, 90% (95% CI, 77%-96%) and 94% (95% CI, 89%-96%) for substance use disorders, 100% and 94% (95% CI, 90%-96%) for severe substance use disorders, and 75% (95% CI, 52%-89%) and 98% (95% CI, 95%-100%) for nicotine dependence. No significant

  7. The characterisation and evaluation of uncertainty in probabilistic risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parry, G.W.; Winter, P.W.

    1980-10-01

    The sources of uncertainty in probabilistic risk analysis are discussed using the event/fault tree methodology as an example. The role of statistics in quantifying these uncertainties is investigated. A class of uncertainties is identified which is, at present, unquantifiable, using either classical or Bayesian statistics. It is argued that Bayesian statistics is the more appropriate vehicle for the probabilistic analysis of rare events and a short review is given with some discussion on the representation of ignorance. (author)

  8. Computer code for general analysis of radon risks (GARR)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ginevan, M.

    1984-09-01

    This document presents a computer model for general analysis of radon risks that allow the user to specify a large number of possible models with a small number of simple commands. The model is written in a version of BASIC which conforms closely to the American National Standards Institute (ANSI) definition for minimal BASIC and thus is readily modified for use on a wide variety of computers and, in particular, microcomputers. Model capabilities include generation of single-year life tables from 5-year abridged data, calculation of multiple-decrement life tables for lung cancer for the general population, smokers, and nonsmokers, and a cohort lung cancer risk calculation that allows specification of level and duration of radon exposure, the form of the risk model, and the specific population assumed at risk. 36 references, 8 figures, 7 tables

  9. Downside Risk analysis applied to the Hedge Funds universe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perelló, Josep

    2007-09-01

    Hedge Funds are considered as one of the portfolio management sectors which shows a fastest growing for the past decade. An optimal Hedge Fund management requires an appropriate risk metrics. The classic CAPM theory and its Ratio Sharpe fail to capture some crucial aspects due to the strong non-Gaussian character of Hedge Funds statistics. A possible way out to this problem while keeping the CAPM simplicity is the so-called Downside Risk analysis. One important benefit lies in distinguishing between good and bad returns, that is: returns greater or lower than investor's goal. We revisit most popular Downside Risk indicators and provide new analytical results on them. We compute these measures by taking the Credit Suisse/Tremont Investable Hedge Fund Index Data and with the Gaussian case as a benchmark. In this way, an unusual transversal lecture of the existing Downside Risk measures is provided.

  10. Quantitative risk analysis of the pipeline GASDUC III - solutions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Silva, Edmilson P.; Bettoni, Izabel Cristina [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    In this work the quantitative risks analysis to the external public of the Pipeline Cabiunas - REDUC (GASDUC III), with 180 km, linking the municipalities of Macae and Duque de Caxias - RJ was performed by the Companies PETROBRAS and ITSEMAP do Brasil. In addition to the large diameter of the pipeline 38 inches and high operation pressure 100 kgf/cm{sup 2} operating with natural gas through several densely populated areas. Initially, the individual risk contours were calculated without considering mitigating measures, obtaining as result the individual risk contour with frequencies of 1x10{sup -06} per year involving sensitive occupations and therefore considered unacceptable when compared with the INEA criterion. The societal risk was calculated for eight densely populated areas and their respective FN-curves situated below the advised limit established by INEA, except for two areas that required the proposal of additional mitigating measures to the reduction of societal risk. Regarding to societal risk, the FN-curve should be below the advised limit presented in the Technical Instruction of INEA. The individual and societal risk were reassessed incorporating some mitigating measures and the results situated below the advised limits established by INEA and PETROBRAS has obtained the license for installation of the pipeline. (author)

  11. Cancer risk factors in Korean news media: a content analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kye, Su Yeon; Kwon, Jeong Hyun; Kim, Yong-Chan; Shim, Minsun; Kim, Jee Hyun; Cho, Hyunsoon; Jung, Kyu Won; Park, Keeho

    2015-01-01

    Little is known about the news coverage of cancer risk factors in Korea. This study aimed to examine how the news media encompasses a wide array of content regarding cancer risk factors and related cancer sites, and investigate whether news coverage of cancer risk factors is congruent with the actual prevalence of the disease. A content analysis was conducted on 1,138 news stories covered during a 5-year period between 2008 and 2012. The news stories were selected from nationally representative media in Korea. Information was collected about cancer risk factors and cancer sites. Of various cancer risk factors, occupational and environmental exposures appeared most frequently in the news. Breast cancer was mentioned the most in relation to cancer sites. Breast, cervical, prostate, and skin cancer were overrepresented in the media in comparison to incidence and mortality cases, whereas lung, thyroid, liver, and stomach cancer were underrepresented. To our knowledge, this research is the first investigation dealing with news coverage about cancer risk factors in Korea. The study findings show occupational and environmental exposures are emphasized more than personal lifestyle factors; further, more prevalent cancers in developed countries have greater media coverage, not reflecting the realities of the disease. The findings may help health journalists and other health storytellers to develop effective ways to communicate cancer risk factors.

  12. Analysis of coastal protection under rising flood risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Megan J. Lickley

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Infrastructure located along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts is exposed to rising risk of flooding from sea level rise, increasing storm surge, and subsidence. In these circumstances coastal management commonly based on 100-year flood maps assuming current climatology is no longer adequate. A dynamic programming cost–benefit analysis is applied to the adaptation decision, illustrated by application to an energy facility in Galveston Bay. Projections of several global climate models provide inputs to estimates of the change in hurricane and storm surge activity as well as the increase in sea level. The projected rise in physical flood risk is combined with estimates of flood damage and protection costs in an analysis of the multi-period nature of adaptation choice. The result is a planning method, using dynamic programming, which is appropriate for investment and abandonment decisions under rising coastal risk.

  13. Risk analysis and priority setting for environmental policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Travis, C.C.

    1991-01-01

    There is a growing realization that the demand for funding to correct our nation's environmental problems will soon outstrip available resources. In the hazardous waste area alone, the estimated cost of remediating Superfund sites ranges from $32 billion to $80 billion. Numerous other areas of competing for these same financial resources. These include ozone depletion, global warming, the protection of endangered species and wetlands, toxic air pollution, carcinogenic pesticides, and urban smog. In response to this imbalance in the supply and demand for national funds, several political constituencies are calling for the use of risk assessment as a tool in the prioritization of research and budget needs. Comparative risk analysis offers a logical framework in which to organize information about complex environmental problems. Risk analysis allows policy analysts to make resource allocation decisions on the basis of scientific judgement rather than political expediency

  14. Analysis of quantum semiconductor heterostructures by ballistic electron emission spectroscopy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guthrie, Daniel K.

    1998-09-01

    The microelectronics industry is diligently working to achieve the goal of gigascale integration (GSI) by early in the 21st century. For the past twenty-five years, progress toward this goal has been made by continually scaling down device technology. Unfortunately, this trend cannot continue to the point of producing arbitrarily small device sizes. One possible solution to this problem that is currently under intensive study is the relatively new area of quantum devices. Quantum devices represent a new class of microelectronic devices that operate by utilizing the wave-like nature (reflection, refraction, and confinement) of electrons together with the laws of quantum mechanics to construct useful devices. One difficulty associated with these structures is the absence of measurement techniques that can fully characterize carrier transport in such devices. This thesis addresses this need by focusing on the study of carrier transport in quantum semiconductor heterostructures using a relatively new and versatile measurement technique known as ballistic electron emission spectroscopy (BEES). To achieve this goal, a systematic approach that encompasses a set of progressively more complex structures is utilized. First, the simplest BEES structure possible, the metal/semiconductor interface, is thoroughly investigated in order to provide a foundation for measurements on more the complex structures. By modifying the semiclassical model commonly used to describe the experimental BEES spectrum, a very complete and accurate description of the basic structure has been achieved. Next, a very simple semiconductor heterostructure, a Ga1-xAlxAs single-barrier structure, was measured and analyzed. Low-temperature measurements on this structure were used to investigate the band structure and electron-wave interference effects in the Ga1-xAlxAs single barrier structure. These measurements are extended to a simple quantum device by designing, measuring, and analyzing a set of

  15. Analysis of Historical Rainfall Data and Associated Risks on Rain ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    distribution over the last six decades and tries to do a number of weather induced risk analysis in relation to different rainfall events that has special importance to the local farmers. Different type of rainfall events over the past six decades was assessed in relation to Ethiopian rain fed” tef” production. Tef is an important ...

  16. Yucca Mountain transportation routes: Preliminary characterization and risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Souleyrette, R.R. II; Sathisan, S.K.; di Bartolo, R.

    1991-01-01

    This report presents appendices related to the preliminary assessment and risk analysis for high-level radioactive waste transportation routes to the proposed Yucca Mountain Project repository. Information includes data on population density, traffic volume, ecologically sensitive areas, and accident history

  17. Design of Process Displays based on Risk Analysis Techniques

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paulsen, Jette Lundtang

    -tions. On the basis of her experience with the design of display systems; with risk analysis methods and from 8 years, as an engi-neer-on-shift at a research reactor, the author developed a method to elicit necessary information to the operator. The method, a combination of a Goal-Tree and a Fault-Tree, is described...

  18. Quantitative risk analysis as a basis for emergency planning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yogui, Regiane Tiemi Teruya [Bureau Veritas do Brasil, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Macedo, Eduardo Soares de [Instituto de Pesquisas Tecnologicas (IPT), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    Several environmental accidents happened in Brazil and in the world during the 70's and 80's. This strongly motivated the preparation for emergencies in the chemical and petrochemical industries. Environmental accidents affect the environment and the communities that are neighbor to the industrial facilities. The present study aims at subsidizing and providing orientation to develop Emergency Planning from the data obtained on Quantitative Risk Analysis, elaborated according to the Technical Standard P4.261/03 from CETESB (Sao Paulo Environmental Agency). It was observed, during the development of the research, that the data generated on these studies need a complementation and a deeper analysis, so that it is possible to use them on the Emergency Plans. The main issues that were analyzed and discussed on this study were the reevaluation of hazard identification for the emergency plans, the consequences and vulnerability analysis for the response planning, the risk communication, and the preparation to respond to the emergencies of the communities exposed to manageable risks. As a result, the study intends to improve the interpretation and use of the data deriving from the Quantitative Risk Analysis to develop the emergency plans. (author)

  19. Medicine and ionizing radiation: help cards for risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gauron, C.

    2004-01-01

    Following an inquiry in Ile de France on radiation protection, a scientific committee associating several institutions and different experts has elaborated cards for help to risk analysis. A first series of this cards is published in this issue documents for the labour physician and will be next on Internet. the other fields of medical use will be covered in the future. (N.C.)

  20. [Modular risk analysis for assessing multiple waste sites]: Proceedings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Whelan, G.

    1994-01-01

    This document contains proceedings from the Integrated Planning Workshop from Strategic Planning to Baselining and Other Objectives. Topics discussed include: stakeholder involvement; regulations; future site use planning; site integration and baseline methods; risk analysis in decision making; land uses; and economics in decision making. Individual records have been processed separately for the database

  1. Seismic risk analysis for General Electric Plutonium Facility, Pleasanton, California

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1978-01-01

    This report presents the results of a seismic risk analysis that focuses on all possible sources of seismic activity, with the exception of the postulated Verona Fault. The best estimate curve indicates that the Vallecitos facility will experience 30% g with a return period of roughly 130 years and 60% g with a return period of roughly 700 years

  2. Alcohol consumption and dementia risk: a dose–response meta-analysis of prospective studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu, Wei; Wang, Huifu; Wan, Yu; Tan, Chenchen; Li, Jieqiong; Tan, Lan; Yu, Jin-Tai

    2017-01-01

    It is widely believed that light-to-moderate alcohol intake may protect against dementia while excessive drinking may instead increase the risk. Nonetheless, these findings need cautious interpretations due to varying methodologies and lack of standard definition, which hindered our transferring into preventative practice. The objective of this study is to investigate the potential dose–response association between alcohol consumption and risk of dementia. A systematic search was conducted in electronic databases to identify relevant studies. Risk estimates were combined using a random-effect model. Eleven studies with 73,330 participants and 4586 cases for all-cause dementia (ACD), five studies with 52,715 participants and 1267 cases for Alzheimer’s dementia (AD) and four studies with 49,535 participants and 542 cases for vascular dementia were included. We observed a nonlinear association between alcohol consumption and ACD risk (p_n_o_n_l_i_n_e_a_r_i_t_y < 0.05). The alcohol dose associated with lower risk of dementia was confined to at most 12.5 g/day, with the risk hitting bottom (RR ≈ 0.9) at roughly 6 g/day. Of note, the ACD risk seemed to be elevated (≈10%) when the dose surpasses certain levels: 23 drinks/week or 38 g/day. For the alcohol type, recommendation for wine is prioritized. The subgroup analysis further indicated that the effect of alcohol may be greater in younger adults (<60 years old) with regard to fighting against dementia. Modest alcohol consumption (≤12.5 g/day) is associated with a reduced risk of dementia with 6 g/day of alcohol conferring a lower risk than other levels while excessive drinking (≥38 g/day) may instead elevate the risk.

  3. Hormonal contraception among electronic cigarette users and cardiovascular risk: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riley, Halley E M; Berry-Bibee, Erin; England, Lucinda J; Jamieson, Denise J; Marchbanks, Polly A; Curtis, Kathryn M

    2016-03-01

    Women who use combined hormonal contraceptives and cigarettes have an increased risk for cardiovascular (CV) events. We reviewed the literature to determine whether women who use hormonal contraceptives (HC) and electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes) also have an increased risk. Systematic review. We searched for articles reporting myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, venous thromboembolism, peripheral arterial disease or changes to CV markers in women using e-cigarettes and HC. We also searched for indirect evidence, such as CV outcomes among e-cigarette users in the general population and among HC users exposed to nicotine, propylene glycol or glycerol. No articles reported on outcomes among e-cigarette users using HC. Among the general population, 13 articles reported on heart rate or blood pressure after e-cigarette use. These markers generally remained normal, even when significant changes were observed. In three studies, changes were less pronounced after e-cigarette use than cigarette use. One MI was reported among 1012 people exposed to e-cigarettes in these studies. One article on nicotine and HC exposure found both exposures to be significantly associated with acute changes to heart rate, though mean heart rate remained normal. No articles on propylene glycol or glycerol and HC exposure were identified. We identified no evidence on CV outcomes among e-cigarette users using HC. Limited data reporting mostly acute outcomes suggested that CV events are rare among e-cigarette users in the general population and that e-cigarettes may affect heart rate and blood pressure less than conventional cigarettes. There is a need for research assessing joint HC and e-cigarette exposure on clinical CV outcomes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Electronic Health Record Tools to Care for At-Risk Older Drivers: A Quality Improvement Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casey, Colleen M; Salinas, Katherine; Eckstrom, Elizabeth

    2015-06-01

    Evaluating driving safety of older adults is an important health topic, but primary care providers (PCP) face multiple barriers in addressing this issue. The study's objectives were to develop an electronic health record (EHR)-based Driving Clinical Support Tool, train PCPs to perform driving assessments utilizing the tool, and systematize documentation of assessment and management of driving safety issues via the tool. The intervention included development of an evidence-based Driving Clinical Support Tool within the EHR, followed by training of internal medicine providers in the tool's content and use. Pre- and postintervention provider surveys and chart review of driving-related patient visits were conducted. Surveys included self-report of preparedness and knowledge to evaluate at-risk older drivers and were analyzed using paired t-test. A chart review of driving-related office visits compared documentation pre- and postintervention including: completeness of appropriate focused history and exam, identification of deficits, patient education, and reporting to appropriate authorities when indicated. Data from 86 providers were analyzed. Pre- and postintervention surveys showed significantly increased self-assessed preparedness (p < .001) and increased driving-related knowledge (p < .001). Postintervention charts showed improved documentation of correct cognitive testing, more referrals/consults, increased patient education about community resources, and appropriate regulatory reporting when deficits were identified. Focused training and an EHR-based clinical support tool improved provider self-reported preparedness and knowledge of how to evaluate at-risk older drivers. The tool improved documentation of driving-related issues and led to improved access to interdisciplinary care coordination. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Gerontological Society of America 2015.

  5. RiskChanges Spatial Decision Support system for the analysis of changing multi-hazard risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Westen, Cees; Zhang, Kaixi; Bakker, Wim; Andrejchenko, Vera; Berlin, Julian; Olyazadeh, Roya; Cristal, Irina

    2015-04-01

    Within the framework of the EU FP7 Marie Curie Project CHANGES and the EU FP7 Copernicus project INCREO a spatial decision support system was developed with the aim to analyse the effect of risk reduction planning alternatives on reducing the risk now and in the future, and support decision makers in selecting the best alternatives. Central to the SDSS are the stakeholders. The envisaged users of the system are organizations involved in planning of risk reduction measures, and that have staff capable of visualizing and analyzing spatial data at a municipal scale. The SDSS should be able to function in different countries with different legal frameworks and with organizations with different mandates. These could be subdivided into Civil protection organization with the mandate to design disaster response plans, Expert organizations with the mandate to design structural risk reduction measures (e.g. dams, dikes, check-dams etc), and planning organizations with the mandate to make land development plans. The SDSS can be used in different ways: analyzing the current level of risk, analyzing the best alternatives for risk reduction, the evaluation of the consequences of possible future scenarios to the risk levels, and the evaluation how different risk reduction alternatives will lead to risk reduction under different future scenarios. The SDSS is developed based on open source software and following open standards, for code as well as for data formats and service interfaces. Code development was based upon open source software as well. The architecture of the system is modular. The various parts of the system are loosely coupled, extensible, using standards for interoperability, flexible and web-based. The Spatial Decision Support System is composed of a number of integrated components. The Risk Assessment component allows to carry out spatial risk analysis, with different degrees of complexity, ranging from simple exposure (overlay of hazard and assets maps) to

  6. Predicting complication risk in spine surgery: a prospective analysis of a novel risk assessment tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veeravagu, Anand; Li, Amy; Swinney, Christian; Tian, Lu; Moraff, Adrienne; Azad, Tej D; Cheng, Ivan; Alamin, Todd; Hu, Serena S; Anderson, Robert L; Shuer, Lawrence; Desai, Atman; Park, Jon; Olshen, Richard A; Ratliff, John K

    2017-07-01

    OBJECTIVE The ability to assess the risk of adverse events based on known patient factors and comorbidities would provide more effective preoperative risk stratification. Present risk assessment in spine surgery is limited. An adverse event prediction tool was developed to predict the risk of complications after spine surgery and tested on a prospective patient cohort. METHODS The spinal Risk Assessment Tool (RAT), a novel instrument for the assessment of risk for patients undergoing spine surgery that was developed based on an administrative claims database, was prospectively applied to 246 patients undergoing 257 spinal procedures over a 3-month period. Prospectively collected data were used to compare the RAT to the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and the American College of Surgeons National Surgery Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) Surgical Risk Calculator. Study end point was occurrence and type of complication after spine surgery. RESULTS The authors identified 69 patients (73 procedures) who experienced a complication over the prospective study period. Cardiac complications were most common (10.2%). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were calculated to compare complication outcomes using the different assessment tools. Area under the curve (AUC) analysis showed comparable predictive accuracy between the RAT and the ACS NSQIP calculator (0.670 [95% CI 0.60-0.74] in RAT, 0.669 [95% CI 0.60-0.74] in NSQIP). The CCI was not accurate in predicting complication occurrence (0.55 [95% CI 0.48-0.62]). The RAT produced mean probabilities of 34.6% for patients who had a complication and 24% for patients who did not (p = 0.0003). The generated predicted values were stratified into low, medium, and high rates. For the RAT, the predicted complication rate was 10.1% in the low-risk group (observed rate 12.8%), 21.9% in the medium-risk group (observed 31.8%), and 49.7% in the high-risk group (observed 41.2%). The ACS NSQIP calculator consistently

  7. SU-F-T-243: Major Risks in Radiotherapy. A Review Based On Risk Analysis Literature

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    López-Tarjuelo, J; Guasp-Tortajada, M; Iglesias-Montenegro, N; Monasor-Denia, P [Servicio de Radiofísica y Protección Radiológica, Consorcio Hospitalario Provincial de Castellón, Castellón de la Plana, España/Spain (Spain); Bouché-Babiloni, A; Morillo-Macías, V; Ferrer-Albiach, C [Servicio de Oncología Radioterápica, Consorcio Hospitalario Provincial de Castellón, Castellón de la Plana, España/Spain (Spain)

    2016-06-15

    Purpose: We present a literature review of risk analyses in radiotherapy to highlight the most reported risks and facilitate the spread of this valuable information so that professionals can be aware of these major threats before performing their own studies. Methods: We considered studies with at least an estimation of the probability of occurrence of an adverse event (O) and its associated severity (S). They cover external beam radiotherapy, brachytherapy, intraoperative radiotherapy, and stereotactic techniques. We selected only the works containing a detailed ranked series of elements or failure modes and focused on the first fully reported quartile as much. Afterward, we sorted the risk elements according to a regular radiotherapy procedure so that the resulting groups were cited in several works and be ranked in this way. Results: 29 references published between 2007 and February 2016 were studied. Publication trend has been generally rising. The most employed analysis has been the Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA). Among references, we selected 20 works listing 258 ranked risk elements. They were sorted into 31 groups appearing at least in two different works. 11 groups appeared in at least 5 references and 5 groups did it in 7 or more papers. These last sets of risks where choosing another set of images or plan for planning or treating, errors related with contours, errors in patient positioning for treatment, human mistakes when programming treatments, and planning errors. Conclusion: There is a sufficient amount and variety of references for identifying which failure modes or elements should be addressed in a radiotherapy department before attempting a specific analysis. FMEA prevailed, but other studies such as “risk matrix” or “occurrence × severity” analyses can also lead professionals’ efforts. Risk associated with human actions ranks very high; therefore, they should be automated or at least peer-reviewed.

  8. SU-F-T-243: Major Risks in Radiotherapy. A Review Based On Risk Analysis Literature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    López-Tarjuelo, J; Guasp-Tortajada, M; Iglesias-Montenegro, N; Monasor-Denia, P; Bouché-Babiloni, A; Morillo-Macías, V; Ferrer-Albiach, C

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: We present a literature review of risk analyses in radiotherapy to highlight the most reported risks and facilitate the spread of this valuable information so that professionals can be aware of these major threats before performing their own studies. Methods: We considered studies with at least an estimation of the probability of occurrence of an adverse event (O) and its associated severity (S). They cover external beam radiotherapy, brachytherapy, intraoperative radiotherapy, and stereotactic techniques. We selected only the works containing a detailed ranked series of elements or failure modes and focused on the first fully reported quartile as much. Afterward, we sorted the risk elements according to a regular radiotherapy procedure so that the resulting groups were cited in several works and be ranked in this way. Results: 29 references published between 2007 and February 2016 were studied. Publication trend has been generally rising. The most employed analysis has been the Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA). Among references, we selected 20 works listing 258 ranked risk elements. They were sorted into 31 groups appearing at least in two different works. 11 groups appeared in at least 5 references and 5 groups did it in 7 or more papers. These last sets of risks where choosing another set of images or plan for planning or treating, errors related with contours, errors in patient positioning for treatment, human mistakes when programming treatments, and planning errors. Conclusion: There is a sufficient amount and variety of references for identifying which failure modes or elements should be addressed in a radiotherapy department before attempting a specific analysis. FMEA prevailed, but other studies such as “risk matrix” or “occurrence × severity” analyses can also lead professionals’ efforts. Risk associated with human actions ranks very high; therefore, they should be automated or at least peer-reviewed.

  9. An analysis of electronic document management in oncology care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poulter, Thomas; Gannon, Brian; Bath, Peter A

    2012-06-01

    In this research in progress, a reference model for the use of electronic patient record (EPR) systems in oncology is described. The model, termed CICERO, comprises technical and functional components, and emphasises usability, clinical safety and user acceptance. One of the functional components of the model-an electronic document and records management (EDRM) system-is monitored in the course of its deployment at a leading oncology centre in the UK. Specifically, the user requirements and design of the EDRM solution are described.The study is interpretative and forms part a wider research programme to define and validate the CICERO model. Preliminary conclusions confirm the importance of a socio-technical perspective in Onco-EPR system design.

  10. Analysis of Atomic Electronic Excitation in Nonequilibrium Air Plasmas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    He Xin; Jia Hong-Hui; Yin Hong-Wei; Zhang Hai-Liang; Chang Sheng-Li; Yang Jun-Cai; Dang Wei-Hua

    2014-01-01

    Electronic excitation of atoms is studied in nonequilibrium air plasmas with the electronic temperature between 8000 K and 20000 K. By using the modified Saha—Boltzmann equation, our simplified method takes into account significant radiative processes and strong self-absorption of the vacuum ultraviolet lines. Calculations are carried out at three trajectory points of the Fire II flight experiment. Good agreement with the detailed collisional-radiative model is obtained, and the performance of this method in applications to highly nonequilibrium conditions is better than Park's quasi-steady-state model and Spradian-9.0. A short discussion on the influence of optical thickness of the vacuum ultraviolet radiation is also given. It costs about 2.9 ms on the average to solve one cell of the shock layer on a low cost computer, which shows that the present method is fast and efficient. (physics of gases, plasmas, and electric discharges)

  11. Cost analysis of low energy electron accelerator for film curing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ochi, Masafumi

    2003-01-01

    Low energy electron accelerators are recognized as one of the advanced curing means of converting processes for films and papers. In the last three years the price of the accelerator equipment has been greatly reduced. The targeted application areas are mainly processes of curing inks, coatings, and adhesives to make packaging materials. The operating cost analyses were made for electron beam (EB) processes over the conventional ones without EB. Then three new proposals for cost reduction of EB processes are introduced. Also being developed are new EB chemistries such as coatings, laminating adhesives and inks. EB processes give instantaneous cure and EB chemistries are basically non solvent causing less VOC emission to the environment. These developments of both equipment and chemistries might have a potential to change conventional packaging film industries. (author)

  12. Ab Initio Analysis of Auger-Assisted Electron Transfer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hyeon-Deuk, Kim; Kim, Joonghan; Prezhdo, Oleg V

    2015-01-15

    Quantum confinement in nanoscale materials allows Auger-type electron-hole energy exchange. We show by direct time-domain atomistic simulation and analytic theory that Auger processes give rise to a new mechanism of charge transfer (CT) on the nanoscale. Auger-assisted CT eliminates the renown Marcus inverted regime, rationalizing recent experiments on CT from quantum dots to molecular adsorbates. The ab initio simulation reveals a complex interplay of the electron-hole and charge-phonon channels of energy exchange, demonstrating a variety of CT scenarios. The developed Marcus rate theory for Auger-assisted CT describes, without adjustable parameters, the experimental plateau of the CT rate in the region of large donor-acceptor energy gap. The analytic theory and atomistic insights apply broadly to charge and energy transfer in nanoscale systems.

  13. Risk factors for deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism after traumatic injury: A competing risks analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Gent, Jan-Michael; Calvo, Richard Yee; Zander, Ashley L; Olson, Erik J; Sise, C Beth; Sise, Michael J; Shackford, Steven R

    2017-12-01

    Venous thromboembolism, including deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and pulmonary embolism (PE), is typically reported as a composite measure of the quality of trauma center care. Given that recent data suggesting postinjury DVT and PE are distinct clinical processes, a better understanding may result from analyzing them as independent, competing events. Using competing risks analysis, we evaluated our hypothesis that the risk factors and timing of postinjury DVT and PE are different. We examined all adult trauma patients admitted to our Level I trauma center from July 2006 to December 2011 who received at least one surveillance duplex ultrasound of the lower extremities and who were at high risk or greater for DVT. Outcomes included DVT and PE events, and time-to-event from admission. We used competing risks analysis to evaluate risk factors for DVT while accounting for PE as a competing event, and vice versa. Of 2,370 patients, 265 (11.2%) had at least one venous thromboembolism event, 235 DVT only, 19 PE only, 11 DVT and PE. Within 2 days of admission, 38% of DVT cases had occurred compared with 26% of PE. Competing risks modeling of DVT as primary event identified older age, severe injury (Injury Severity Score, ≥ 15), mechanical ventilation longer than 4 days, active cancer, history of DVT or PE, major venous repair, male sex, and prophylactic enoxaparin and prophylactic heparin as associated risk factors. Modeling of PE as the primary event showed younger age, nonsevere injury (Injury Severity Score, risk factors for PE and DVT after injury were different, suggesting that they are clinically distinct events that merit independent consideration. Many DVT events occurred early despite prophylaxis, bringing into question the preventability of postinjury DVT. We recommend trauma center quality reporting program measures be revised to account for DVT and PE as unique events. Epidemiologic, level III.

  14. Risk Factors for Gambling Problems: An Analysis by Gender.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hing, Nerilee; Russell, Alex; Tolchard, Barry; Nower, Lia

    2016-06-01

    Differences in problem gambling rates between males and females suggest that associated risk factors vary by gender. Previous combined analyses of male and female gambling may have obscured these distinctions. This study aimed to develop separate risk factor models for gambling problems for males and for females, and identify gender-based similarities and differences. It analysed data from the largest prevalence study in Victoria Australia (N = 15,000). Analyses determined factors differentiating non-problem from at-risk gamblers separately for women and men, then compared genders using interaction terms. Separate multivariate analyses determined significant results when controlling for all others. Variables included demographics, gambling behaviour, gambling motivations, money management, and mental and physical health. Significant predictors of at-risk status amongst female gamblers included: 18-24 years old, not speaking English at home, living in a group household, unemployed or not in the workforce, gambling on private betting, electronic gaming machines (EGMs), scratch tickets or bingo, and gambling for reasons other than social reasons, to win money or for general entertainment. For males, risk factors included: 18-24 years old, not speaking English at home, low education, living in a group household, unemployed or not in the workforce, gambling on EGMs, table games, races, sports or lotteries, and gambling for reasons other than social reasons, to win money or for general entertainment. High risk groups requiring appropriate interventions comprise young adults, especially males; middle-aged female EGM gamblers; non-English speaking populations; frequent EGM, table games, race and sports gamblers; and gamblers motivated by escape.

  15. Key attributes of the SAPHIRE risk and reliability analysis software for risk-informed probabilistic applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, Curtis; Knudsen, James; Kvarfordt, Kellie; Wood, Ted

    2008-01-01

    The Idaho National Laboratory is a primary developer of probabilistic risk and reliability analysis (PRRA) tools, dating back over 35 years. Evolving from mainframe-based software, the current state-of-the-practice has led to the creation of the SAPHIRE software. Currently, agencies such as the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the National Aeronautics and Aerospace Agency, the Department of Energy, and the Department of Defense use version 7 of the SAPHIRE software for many of their risk-informed activities. In order to better understand and appreciate the power of software as part of risk-informed applications, we need to recall that our current analysis methods and solution methods have built upon pioneering work done 30-40 years ago. We contrast this work with the current capabilities in the SAPHIRE analysis package. As part of this discussion, we provide information for both the typical features and special analysis capabilities, which are available. We also present the application and results typically found with state-of-the-practice PRRA models. By providing both a high-level and detailed look at the SAPHIRE software, we give a snapshot in time for the current use of software tools in a risk-informed decision arena

  16. Miniaturization, Packaging, and Thermal Analysis of Power Electronics Modules

    OpenAIRE

    Lostetter, Alexander B.

    1998-01-01

    High power circuits, those involving high levels of voltages and currents to produce several kilowatts of power, would possess an optimized efficiency when driven at high frequencies (on the order of MHz). Such an approach would greatly reduce the size of capacitive and magnetic components, and thus ultimately reduce the cost of the power electronic circuits. The problem with this strategy in conventional packaging, however, is that at high frequencies, interconnects between the power devic...

  17. Blocking layer modeling for temperature analysis of electron transfer ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this article, we simulate thermal effects on the electron transfer rate from three quantum dots CdSe, CdS and CdTe to three metal oxides TiO2, SnO2 and ZnO2 in the presence of four blocking layers ZnS, ZnO, TiO2 and Al2O3, in a porous quantum dot sensitized solar cell (QDSSC) structure, using Marcus theory.

  18. Electron diffraction, elemental and image analysis of nanocrystals

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Šlouf, Miroslav; Pavlova, Ewa; Hromádková, Jiřina; Králová, Daniela; Tyrpekl, Václav

    2009-01-01

    Roč. 16, 2a (2009), s. 33-34 ISSN 1211-5894. [Struktura - Colloquium of Czech and Slovak Crystallographic Association. Hluboká nad Vltavou, 22.06.2009-25.06.2009] R&D Projects: GA AV ČR KAN200520704; GA ČR GA203/07/0717 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z40500505 Keywords : TEM * electron diffraction * nanocrystals Subject RIV: CD - Macromolecular Chemistry

  19. A scenario-based procedure for seismic risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kluegel, J.-U.; Mualchin, L.; Panza, G.F.

    2006-12-01

    A new methodology for seismic risk analysis based on probabilistic interpretation of deterministic or scenario-based hazard analysis, in full compliance with the likelihood principle and therefore meeting the requirements of modern risk analysis, has been developed. The proposed methodology can easily be adjusted to deliver its output in a format required for safety analysts and civil engineers. The scenario-based approach allows the incorporation of all available information collected in a geological, seismotectonic and geotechnical database of the site of interest as well as advanced physical modelling techniques to provide a reliable and robust deterministic design basis for civil infrastructures. The robustness of this approach is of special importance for critical infrastructures. At the same time a scenario-based seismic hazard analysis allows the development of the required input for probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) as required by safety analysts and insurance companies. The scenario-based approach removes the ambiguity in the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) which relies on the projections of Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) equation. The problems in the validity of G-R projections, because of incomplete to total absence of data for making the projections, are still unresolved. Consequently, the information from G-R must not be used in decisions for design of critical structures or critical elements in a structure. The scenario-based methodology is strictly based on observable facts and data and complemented by physical modelling techniques, which can be submitted to a formalised validation process. By means of sensitivity analysis, knowledge gaps related to lack of data can be dealt with easily, due to the limited amount of scenarios to be investigated. The proposed seismic risk analysis can be used with confidence for planning, insurance and engineering applications. (author)

  20. Analysis of spin depolarizing effects in electron storage rings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boege, M.

    1994-05-01

    In this thesis spin depolarizing effects in electron storage rings are analyzed and the depolarizing effects in the HERA electron storage ring are studied in detail. At high beam energies the equilibrium polarization is limited by nonlinear effects. This will be particularly true in the case of HERA, when the socalled ''spin rotators'' are inserted which are designed to provide longitudinal electron polarization for the HERMES experiment in 1994 and later for the H1 and ZEUS experiment. It is very important to quantify the influence of these effects theoretically by a proper modelling of HERA, so that ways can be found to get a high degree of polarization in the real machine. In this thesis HERA is modelled by the Monte-Carlo tracking program SITROS which was originally written by J. Kewisch in 1982 to study the polarization in PETRA. The first part of the thesis is devoted to a detailed description of the fundamental theoretical concepts on which the program is based. Then the approximations which are needed to overcome computing time limitations are explained and their influence on the simulation result is discussed. The systematic and statistical errors are studied in detail. Extensions of the program which allow a comparison of SITROS with the results given by ''linear'' theory are explained. (orig.)

  1. Analysis of sex hormones in groundwater using electron impact ionization

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gonschorowski, Graciele Pereira da Cruz, E-mail: graci_ju@yahoo.com.br [Universidade Estadual do Centro-Oeste (UNICENTRO), Guarapuava, PR (Brazil); Gonschorowski, Juliano dos Santos, E-mail: jgsantosbr@yahoo.com.br [Universidade Federal Tecnologica do Parana (UTFPR), Guarapuava, PR (Brazil); Shihomatsu, Helena M.; Bustillos, Jose Oscar Vega, E-mail: hmatsu@ipen.br, E-mail: ovega@ipen.br [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil); Limeira, Larissa, E-mail: larissa.limeira07@gmail.com [Centro Universitario FIEO (UNIFIEO), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2013-07-01

    A wide range of estrogenic contaminants has been detected in the aquatic environment, both in natural and synthetic forms. Steroid hormones are endocrine-disrupting compounds, which affect the endocrine system at very low concentrations. This work presents the development of an analytical procedure for the determination of five sexual steroid hormones, 17β-estradiol, estrone, progesterone, and the synthetics contraceptives, 17α-ethynylestradiol and norgestrel in groundwater from Sao Paulo University campus, specifically at Institute of Energy and Nuclear Research (IPEN). The analytical procedure starting with the sample pre-treatment, where the samples were first filtered and then extracted through solid-phase extraction, using Strata-X cartridges, and ending with detection. The separation method used was gas chromatography (GC), and the detection method was mass spectrometry (MS). The ion source used was electron impact ionization which produced an electron beam generated by an incandescent tungsten/thorium filament, which collide with molecules of gas sample. This interaction between the electrons and molecules, produce ions of the sample. The detection limits 0.06μg.L{sup -1} for estrone, 0.13 μg. L{sup -1} for 17β-estradiol, 0.13 μg.L{sup -1} for 17α-ethynylestradiol, 0.49 μg.L{sup -1} for norgestrel and 0.02 μg.L{sup -1} for progesterone were detected in assays matrix. Validating tests were also used in this work. (author)

  2. Analysis of sex hormones in groundwater using electron impact ionization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonschorowski, Graciele Pereira da Cruz; Gonschorowski, Juliano dos Santos; Shihomatsu, Helena M.; Bustillos, Jose Oscar Vega; Limeira, Larissa

    2013-01-01

    A wide range of estrogenic contaminants has been detected in the aquatic environment, both in natural and synthetic forms. Steroid hormones are endocrine-disrupting compounds, which affect the endocrine system at very low concentrations. This work presents the development of an analytical procedure for the determination of five sexual steroid hormones, 17β-estradiol, estrone, progesterone, and the synthetics contraceptives, 17α-ethynylestradiol and norgestrel in groundwater from Sao Paulo University campus, specifically at Institute of Energy and Nuclear Research (IPEN). The analytical procedure starting with the sample pre-treatment, where the samples were first filtered and then extracted through solid-phase extraction, using Strata-X cartridges, and ending with detection. The separation method used was gas chromatography (GC), and the detection method was mass spectrometry (MS). The ion source used was electron impact ionization which produced an electron beam generated by an incandescent tungsten/thorium filament, which collide with molecules of gas sample. This interaction between the electrons and molecules, produce ions of the sample. The detection limits 0.06μg.L -1 for estrone, 0.13 μg. L -1 for 17β-estradiol, 0.13 μg.L -1 for 17α-ethynylestradiol, 0.49 μg.L -1 for norgestrel and 0.02 μg.L -1 for progesterone were detected in assays matrix. Validating tests were also used in this work. (author)

  3. Electron microscopic analysis of rotavirus assembly-replication intermediates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boudreaux, Crystal E.; Kelly, Deborah F.; McDonald, Sarah M.

    2015-01-01

    Rotaviruses (RVs) replicate their segmented, double-stranded RNA genomes in tandem with early virion assembly. In this study, we sought to gain insight into the ultrastructure of RV assembly-replication intermediates (RIs) using transmission electron microscopy (EM). Specifically, we examined a replicase-competent, subcellular fraction that contains all known RV RIs. Three never-before-seen complexes were visualized in this fraction. Using in vitro reconstitution, we showed that ~15-nm doughnut-shaped proteins in strings were nonstructural protein 2 (NSP2) bound to viral RNA transcripts. Moreover, using immunoaffinity-capture EM, we revealed that ~20-nm pebble-shaped complexes contain the viral RNA polymerase (VP1) and RNA capping enzyme (VP3). Finally, using a gel purification method, we demonstrated that ~30–70-nm electron-dense, particle-shaped complexes represent replicase-competent core RIs, containing VP1, VP3, and NSP2 as well as capsid proteins VP2 and VP6. The results of this study raise new questions about the interactions among viral proteins and RNA during the concerted assembly–replicase process. - Highlights: • Rotaviruses replicate their genomes in tandem with early virion assembly. • Little is known about rotavirus assembly-replication intermediates. • Assembly-replication intermediates were imaged using electron microscopy

  4. Electron microscopic analysis of rotavirus assembly-replication intermediates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boudreaux, Crystal E.; Kelly, Deborah F. [Virginia Tech Carilion School of Medicine and Research Institute, Roanoke, VA (United States); McDonald, Sarah M., E-mail: mcdonaldsa@vtc.vt.edu [Virginia Tech Carilion School of Medicine and Research Institute, Roanoke, VA (United States); Department of Biomedical Sciences and Pathobiology, Virginia—Maryland Regional College of Veterinary Medicine, Blacksburg, VA (United States)

    2015-03-15

    Rotaviruses (RVs) replicate their segmented, double-stranded RNA genomes in tandem with early virion assembly. In this study, we sought to gain insight into the ultrastructure of RV assembly-replication intermediates (RIs) using transmission electron microscopy (EM). Specifically, we examined a replicase-competent, subcellular fraction that contains all known RV RIs. Three never-before-seen complexes were visualized in this fraction. Using in vitro reconstitution, we showed that ~15-nm doughnut-shaped proteins in strings were nonstructural protein 2 (NSP2) bound to viral RNA transcripts. Moreover, using immunoaffinity-capture EM, we revealed that ~20-nm pebble-shaped complexes contain the viral RNA polymerase (VP1) and RNA capping enzyme (VP3). Finally, using a gel purification method, we demonstrated that ~30–70-nm electron-dense, particle-shaped complexes represent replicase-competent core RIs, containing VP1, VP3, and NSP2 as well as capsid proteins VP2 and VP6. The results of this study raise new questions about the interactions among viral proteins and RNA during the concerted assembly–replicase process. - Highlights: • Rotaviruses replicate their genomes in tandem with early virion assembly. • Little is known about rotavirus assembly-replication intermediates. • Assembly-replication intermediates were imaged using electron microscopy.

  5. Risk Assessment of Healthcare Waste by Preliminary Hazard Analysis Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pouran Morovati

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Introduction and purpose: Improper management of healthcare waste (HCW can pose considerable risks to human health and the environment and cause serious problems in developing countries such as Iran. In this study, we sought to determine the hazards of HCW in the public hospitals affiliated to Abadan School of Medicine using the preliminary hazard analysis (PHA method. Methods: In this descriptive and analytic study, health risk assessment of HCW in government hospitals affiliated to Abadan School of Medicine (4 public hospitals was carried out by using PHA in the summer of  2016. Results: We noted the high risk of sharps and infectious wastes. Considering the dual risk of injury and disease transmission, sharps were classified in the very high-risk group, and pharmaceutical and chemical and radioactive wastes were classified in the medium-risk group. Sharps posed the highest risk, while pharmaceutical and chemical wastes had the lowest risk. Among the various stages of waste management, the waste treatment stage was the most hazardous in all the studied hospitals. Conclusion: To diminish the risks associated with healthcare waste management in the studied hospitals, adequate training of healthcare workers and care providers, provision of suitable personal protective and transportation equipment, and supervision of the environmental health manager of hospitals should be considered by the authorities.  

  6. 76 FR 76103 - Privacy Act; Notice of Proposed Rulemaking: State-78, Risk Analysis and Management Records

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-06

    ... Rulemaking: State-78, Risk Analysis and Management Records SUMMARY: Notice is hereby given that the... portions of the Risk Analysis and Management (RAM) Records, State-78, system of records contain criminal...) * * * (2) * * * Risk Analysis and Management Records, STATE-78. * * * * * (b) * * * (1) * * * Risk Analysis...

  7. The integration methods of fuzzy fault mode and effect analysis and fault tree analysis for risk analysis of yogurt production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aprilia, Ayu Rizky; Santoso, Imam; Ekasari, Dhita Murita

    2017-05-01

    Yogurt is a product based on milk, which has beneficial effects for health. The process for the production of yogurt is very susceptible to failure because it involves bacteria and fermentation. For an industry, the risks may cause harm and have a negative impact. In order for a product to be successful and profitable, it requires the analysis of risks that may occur during the production process. Risk analysis can identify the risks in detail and prevent as well as determine its handling, so that the risks can be minimized. Therefore, this study will analyze the risks of the production process with a case study in CV.XYZ. The method used in this research is the Fuzzy Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (fuzzy FMEA) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA). The results showed that there are 6 risks from equipment variables, raw material variables, and process variables. Those risks include the critical risk, which is the risk of a lack of an aseptic process, more specifically if starter yogurt is damaged due to contamination by fungus or other bacteria and a lack of sanitation equipment. The results of quantitative analysis of FTA showed that the highest probability is the probability of the lack of an aseptic process, with a risk of 3.902%. The recommendations for improvement include establishing SOPs (Standard Operating Procedures), which include the process, workers, and environment, controlling the starter of yogurt and improving the production planning and sanitation equipment using hot water immersion.

  8. Risk and sensitivity analysis in relation to external events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alzbutas, R.; Urbonas, R.; Augutis, J.

    2001-01-01

    This paper presents risk and sensitivity analysis of external events impacts on the safe operation in general and in particular the Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant safety systems. Analysis is based on the deterministic and probabilistic assumptions and assessment of the external hazards. The real statistic data are used as well as initial external event simulation. The preliminary screening criteria are applied. The analysis of external event impact on the NPP safe operation, assessment of the event occurrence, sensitivity analysis, and recommendations for safety improvements are performed for investigated external hazards. Such events as aircraft crash, extreme rains and winds, forest fire and flying parts of the turbine are analysed. The models are developed and probabilities are calculated. As an example for sensitivity analysis the model of aircraft impact is presented. The sensitivity analysis takes into account the uncertainty features raised by external event and its model. Even in case when the external events analysis show rather limited danger, the sensitivity analysis can determine the highest influence causes. These possible variations in future can be significant for safety level and risk based decisions. Calculations show that external events cannot significantly influence the safety level of the Ignalina NPP operation, however the events occurrence and propagation can be sufficiently uncertain.(author)

  9. Secondary emission ion analyzer provided with an electron gun for insulating material analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blanchard, Bruno; Carrier, Patrick; Marguerite, J.-L.; Rocco, J.-C.

    1976-01-01

    This invention relates to a secondary emission ion analyser, fitted with an electron gun. It is used in the mass spectrometry analysis of electrically insulating bodies. It has already been suggested to bombard the target with an electron beam in conjunction with the beam of primary particles, in order to reduce the space charge near the target. The object of this invention is the application of this known process to appliances of the ion analyser type with a high electric field near the target. Its main characteristic is the use of an electron gun emitting an electron beam through the extraction lens placed opposite the target. The extraction electric field influences the path of the electrons but the electric and mechanical specifications of the electron gun in the invention are such that the target is correctly sprayed by the electron beam [fr

  10. Migraine Headache and Ischemic Stroke Risk: An Updated Meta-analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spector, June T.; Kahn, Susan R.; Jones, Miranda R.; Jayakumar, Monisha; Dalal, Deepan; Nazarian, Saman

    2010-01-01

    Background Observational studies, including recent large cohort studies which were unavailable for prior meta-analysis, have suggested an association between migraine headache and ischemic stroke. We performed an updated meta-analysis to quantitatively summarize the strength of association between migraine and ischemic stroke risk. Methods We systematically searched electronic databases, including MEDLINE and EMBASE, through February 2009 for studies of human subjects in the English language. Study selection using a priori selection criteria, data extraction, and assessment of study quality were conducted independently by reviewer pairs using standardized forms. Results Twenty-one (60%) of 35 studies met the selection criteria, for a total of 622,381 participants (13 case-control, 8 cohort studies) included in the meta-analysis. The pooled adjusted odds ratio of ischemic stroke comparing migraineurs to non-migraineurs using a random effects model was 2.30 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.91-2.76). The pooled adjusted effect estimates for studies that reported relative risks and hazard ratios, respectively, were 2.41 (95% CI, 1.81-3.20) and 1.52 (95% CI, 0.99-2.35). The overall pooled effect estimate was 2.04 (95% CI, 1.72-2.43). Results were robust to sensitivity analyses excluding lower quality studies. Conclusions Migraine is associated with increased ischemic stroke risk. These findings underscore the importance of identifying high-risk migraineurs with other modifiable stroke risk factors. Future studies of the effect of migraine treatment and modifiable risk factor reduction on stroke risk in migraineurs are warranted. PMID:20493462

  11. Risk factors for medication errors in the electronic and manual prescription.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volpe, Cris Renata Grou; Melo, Eveline Maria Magalhães de; Aguiar, Lucas Barbosa de; Pinho, Diana Lúcia Moura; Stival, Marina Morato

    2016-08-08

    to compare electronic and manual prescriptions of a public hospital of Brasilia, identifying risk factors for the occurrence of medication errors. descriptive-exploratory, comparative and retrospective study. Data collection occurred from July 2012 to January 2013, using an instrument for the review of the information contained in medical records related to the medication process. A total of 190 manual and 199 electronic records composed the sample, with 2027 prescriptions each. compared to the manual prescription, a significant reduction was observed in the risk factors after implantation of the electronic prescription, in items such as "lack of the form of dilution" (71.1% to 22.3%) and "prescription with brand name" (99.5% to 31.5%). Conversely, the risk factors "no check" and "lack of CRM of the prescriber" increased. The lack of the allergy registration and the occurrences related to medication were the same for both groups. generally, the use of the electronic prescription system was associated with a significant reduction in risk factors for medication errors, concerning the following aspects: illegibility, prescription with brand name and presence of essential items that provide a safe and effective prescription. comparar as prescrições eletrônicas e manuais de um hospital público do Distrito Federal, identificando os fatores de risco para ocorrência de erros de medicação. Estudo descritivo-exploratório, comparativo e retrospectivo. A coleta de dados ocorreu no período de julho de 2012 a janeiro de 2013, através de instrumento para revisão das informações referentes ao processo de medicação contidas em prontuários. Integraram a amostra 190 prontuários manuais e 199 eletrônicos, com 2027 prescrições cada. na comparação com a prescrição manual, observou-se redução significativa dos fatores de risco após implantação da eletrônica, em itens como "falta da forma de diluição" (71,1% e 22,3%) e "prescrição com nome comercial" (99

  12. Safety- and Risk Analysis Activities in Chemical Industry in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kozine, Igor; Duijm, Nijs Jan; Lauridsen Kurt

    2001-01-01

    The current paper gives an overview of the legislation and the methods used in safety and risk management in the chemical industry within Europe and in particular within the European Union. The paper is based on a report that has been written for the SOS-1 project under the Nordic nuclear safety research (NKS). Safety- and risk-related matters in the process industry, in particular, in chemical, within the EU are subject to consideration at three levels: (1) EU legislation, (2) European/intemational standardisation, and (3) socio-economic analysis. EC Directives define the 'essential requirements', e.g., protection of health and safety, that must be fulfilled when goods are placed on the market or some industry is put into operation. The European standards bodies (CEN, CENELEC and ETSI) have the task of establishing the corresponding technical specifications, meeting the essential requirements of the Directives, compliance with which will provide a presumption of conformity with the essential requirements. Such specifications are referred to as 'harmonised standards'. Compliance with harmonised standards remains voluntary, and manufacturers are free to choose any other technical solution that provides compliance with the essential requirements. This view is stated in the 'New Approach' to technical harmonisation and standardisation (details can be found on the web page: http://europe.eu.int/comm/enterprise/newapproach/standardization/index .html). Standardisation as well as the regulation of technical risks is increasingly being undertaken at European or international level. The European legislator limits its role to the affirmation of overall objectives, and leaves it to the economic players to draw up the technical procedures and standards to specify in detail the ways and means of attaining them. Many countries have introduced requirements that new legislation and/or administrative regulations be subject to socio-economic analysis. In this respect there is a

  13. Cardiac implantable electronic device hematomas: Risk factors and effect of prophylactic pressure bandaging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koh, Youlin; Bingham, Nicholas E; Law, Natalie; Le, Dustin; Mariani, Justin A

    2017-07-01

    Cardiac implantable electronic device (CIED) hematomas are associated with many adverse outcomes. We examined the incidence and risk factors associated with hematoma formation post-CIED implantation, and explored the preventative effect of prophylactic pressure bandaging (PPB) in a large tertiary center. 1,091 devices were implanted during October 2011-December 2014. Clinically significant hematomas (CSH) were those that necessitated prolonged admission, including those due to reoperation, and clinically suspicious hematomas were swellings noted by medical/nursing staff. We screened for variables affecting hematoma incidence prior to conducting multivariate logistic regression analyses, one for all hematomas and one for CSH. 61 hematomas were identified (5.6% of patients), with 12 of those clinically significant (1.1% of patients). Factors significantly increasing the odds of developing any hematoma were stage 2 (odds ratio [OR] = 2.93, 95% confidence interval [CI] [1.08-7.94], P = 0.034) and 3 chronic kidney disease (CKD) (OR = 3.39 [1.20-9.56], P = 0.021), unfractionated heparin/therapeutic enoxaparin (OR = 3.15 [1.22-8.14], P = 0.018), and dual antiplatelets-aspirin + clopidogrel (OR = 2.95 [1.14-7.65], P = 0.026) + other combinations. Body Mass index (BMI) 25.0-29.9 (OR 0.52 [0.28-0.98], P = 0.044) and >30 were associated with decreased hematoma risk (OR 0.43 [0.20-0.91], P = 0.028). Factors significant for CSH formation were unfractionated heparin/therapeutic enoxaparin (OR = 9.55 [1.83-49.84], P = 0.007) and aspirin + clopidogrel (OR = 7.19 [1.01-50.91], P = 0.048). PPB nonsignificantly increased the odds of total hematoma development (OR = 1.53 [0.87-2.69], P = 0.135), and reduced CSH (OR = 0.67 [0.18-2.47], P = 0.547). Heparin and dual antiplatelet use remain strong predictors of overall hematoma formation. CKD is a comparatively moderate predictor. BMI > 25 may decrease the risk of hematoma formation. PPB had nonsignificant effects on hematoma development

  14. New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skandamis, Panagiotis N.; Andritsos, Nikolaos; Psomas, Antonios; Paramythiotis, Spyridon

    2015-01-01

    The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total ‘failure’ that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user

  15. New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Skandamis, Panagiotis N., E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Andritsos, Nikolaos, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Psomas, Antonios, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Paramythiotis, Spyridon, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr [Laboratory of Food Quality Control and Hygiene, Department of Food Science and Technology, Agricultural University of Athens, Iera Odos 75, 118 55, Athens (Greece)

    2015-01-22

    The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total ‘failure’ that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user

  16. New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skandamis, Panagiotis N.; Andritsos, Nikolaos; Psomas, Antonios; Paramythiotis, Spyridon

    2015-01-01

    The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total `failure' that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user-friendly softwares

  17. Meta-analysis: Does garlic intake reduce risk of gastric cancer?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kodali, R T; Eslick, Guy D

    2015-01-01

    In the past 2 decades, various epidemiological studies investigated whether garlic can positively modify the risk of gastric cancer. Garlic contains numerous sulfide compounds, including diallyl trisulfide, which have anticarcinogenic properties. We conducted a meta-analysis to determine if garlic intake reduces the risk of gastric cancer. An electronic search of MEDLINE, PubMed, and EMBASE to June 2014 was completed. There were 14 case control studies, 2 randomized controlled studies, and 1 cohort study that fulfilled our inclusion criteria. We used a random effects model to calculate pooled odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for risk of gastric cancer with garlic consumption. Meta-analysis of a total of 8,621 cases and 14,889 controls was conducted. Significant variability in duration of garlic intake and reference categories for amount of intake was noted. High, low, and any garlic intake were all associated with reduced risk of gastric cancer. High intake had the most significant risk reduction, OR = 0.49 (95% CI: 0.38-0.62). Heterogeneity was low (I² = 30.85, P = 0.17). A more modest risk reduction was associated with low intake, OR = 0.75 (95% CI: 0.58-0.97). Half of the studies did not separate garlic intake into high or low amounts, intake was only noted as consumption vs. non-consumption. Any amount of consumption still showed a risk reduction similar to low intake, OR = 0.77 (95% CI: 0.60-1.00). Low and any amount of consumption showed moderate heterogeneity (58% and 45%, respectively). Garlic intake appears to be associated with reduced risk of gastric cancer. Further high quality studies are required to confirm this finding and to assess the amount of garlic that needs to be consumed for protective effect.

  18. A scaling analysis of electronic localization in two-dimensional random media

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ye Zhen

    2003-01-01

    By an improved scaling analysis, we suggest that there may appear two possibilities concerning the electronic localization in two-dimensional random media. The first is that all electronic states are localized in two dimensions, as conjectured previously. The second possibility is that electronic behaviors in two- and three-dimensional random systems are similar, in agreement with a recent calculation based on a direct calculation of the conductance with the use of the Kubo formula. In this case, non-localized states are possible in two dimensions, and have some peculiar properties. A few predictions are proposed. Moreover, the present analysis accommodates results from the previous scaling analysis

  19. Risk analysis of analytical validations by probabilistic modification of FMEA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barends, D M; Oldenhof, M T; Vredenbregt, M J; Nauta, M J

    2012-05-01

    Risk analysis is a valuable addition to validation of an analytical chemistry process, enabling not only detecting technical risks, but also risks related to human failures. Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) can be applied, using a categorical risk scoring of the occurrence, detection and severity of failure modes, and calculating the Risk Priority Number (RPN) to select failure modes for correction. We propose a probabilistic modification of FMEA, replacing the categorical scoring of occurrence and detection by their estimated relative frequency and maintaining the categorical scoring of severity. In an example, the results of traditional FMEA of a Near Infrared (NIR) analytical procedure used for the screening of suspected counterfeited tablets are re-interpretated by this probabilistic modification of FMEA. Using this probabilistic modification of FMEA, the frequency of occurrence of undetected failure mode(s) can be estimated quantitatively, for each individual failure mode, for a set of failure modes, and the full analytical procedure. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Risk analysis for autonomous underwater vehicle operations in extreme environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brito, Mario Paulo; Griffiths, Gwyn; Challenor, Peter

    2010-12-01

    Autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) are used increasingly to explore hazardous marine environments. Risk assessment for such complex systems is based on subjective judgment and expert knowledge as much as on hard statistics. Here, we describe the use of a risk management process tailored to AUV operations, the implementation of which requires the elicitation of expert judgment. We conducted a formal judgment elicitation process where eight world experts in AUV design and operation were asked to assign a probability of AUV loss given the emergence of each fault or incident from the vehicle's life history of 63 faults and incidents. After discussing methods of aggregation and analysis, we show how the aggregated risk estimates obtained from the expert judgments were used to create a risk model. To estimate AUV survival with mission distance, we adopted a statistical survival function based on the nonparametric Kaplan-Meier estimator. We present theoretical formulations for the estimator, its variance, and confidence limits. We also present a numerical example where the approach is applied to estimate the probability that the Autosub3 AUV would survive a set of missions under Pine Island Glacier, Antarctica in January-March 2009. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.