Twenty-Four-Hour Central Pulse Pressure for Cardiovascular Events Prediction in a Low-Cardiovascular-Risk Population: Results From the Bordeaux Cohort.

Science.gov (United States)

Cremer, Antoine; Boulestreau, Romain; Gaillard, Prune; Lainé, Marion; Papaioannou, Georgios; Gosse, Philippe

2018-02-23

Central blood pressure (BP) is a promising marker to identify subjects with higher cardiovascular risk than expected by traditional risk factors. Significant results have been obtained in populations with high cardiovascular risk, but little is known about low-cardiovascular-risk patients, although the differences between central and peripheral BP (amplification) are usually greater in this population. The study aim was to evaluate central BP over 24 hours for cardiovascular event prediction in hypertensive subjects with low cardiovascular risk. Peripheral and central BPs were recorded during clinical visits and over 24 hours in hypertensive patients with low cardiovascular risk (Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation ≤5%). Our primary end point is the occurrence of a cardiovascular event during follow-up. To assess the potential interest in central pulse pressure over 24 hours, we performed Cox proportional hazard models analysis and comparison of area under the curves using the contrast test for peripheral and central BP. A cohort of 703 hypertensive subjects from Bordeaux were included. After the first 24 hours of BP measurement, the subjects were then followed up for an average of 112.5±70 months. We recorded 65 cardiovascular events during follow-up. Amplification was found to be significantly associated with cardiovascular events when added to peripheral 24-hour pulse pressure ( P =0.0259). The area under the curve of 24-hour central pulse pressure is significantly more important than area under the curve of office BP ( P =0.0296), and there is a trend of superiority with the area under the curve of peripheral 24-hour pulse pressure. Central pulse pressure over 24 hours improves the prediction of cardiovascular events for hypertensive patients with low cardiovascular risk compared to peripheral pulse pressure. © 2018 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

Adaptive servo ventilation for central sleep apnoea in heart failure: SERVE-HF on-treatment analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Woehrle, Holger; Cowie, Martin R; Eulenburg, Christine; Suling, Anna; Angermann, Christiane; d'Ortho, Marie-Pia; Erdmann, Erland; Levy, Patrick; Simonds, Anita K; Somers, Virend K; Zannad, Faiez; Teschler, Helmut; Wegscheider, Karl

2017-08-01

This on-treatment analysis was conducted to facilitate understanding of mechanisms underlying the increased risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in heart failure patients with reduced ejection fraction and predominant central sleep apnoea randomised to adaptive servo ventilation versus the control group in the SERVE-HF trial.Time-dependent on-treatment analyses were conducted (unadjusted and adjusted for predictive covariates). A comprehensive, time-dependent model was developed to correct for asymmetric selection effects (to minimise bias).The comprehensive model showed increased cardiovascular death hazard ratios during adaptive servo ventilation usage periods, slightly lower than those in the SERVE-HF intention-to-treat analysis. Self-selection bias was evident. Patients randomised to adaptive servo ventilation who crossed over to the control group were at higher risk of cardiovascular death than controls, while control patients with crossover to adaptive servo ventilation showed a trend towards lower risk of cardiovascular death than patients randomised to adaptive servo ventilation. Cardiovascular risk did not increase as nightly adaptive servo ventilation usage increased.On-treatment analysis showed similar results to the SERVE-HF intention-to-treat analysis, with an increased risk of cardiovascular death in heart failure with reduced ejection fraction patients with predominant central sleep apnoea treated with adaptive servo ventilation. Bias is inevitable and needs to be taken into account in any kind of on-treatment analysis in positive airway pressure studies. Copyright ©ERS 2017.

Terminological Ontologies for Risk and Vulnerability Analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, Bodil Nistrup; Erdman Thomsen, Hanne

2014-01-01

Risk and vulnerability analyses are an important preliminary stage in civil contingency planning. The Danish Emergency Management Agency has developed a generic model and a set of tools that may be used in the preparedness planning, i.e. for identifying and describing society’s critical functions......, for formulating threat scenarios and for assessing consequences. Terminological ontologies, which are systems of domain specific concepts comprising concept relations and characteristics, are useful, both when describing the central concepts of risk and vulnerability analysis (meta concepts), and for further...

Risk analysis as a decision tool

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yadigaroglu, G.; Chakraborty, S.

1985-01-01

From 1983 - 1985 a lecture series entitled ''Risk-benefit analysis'' was held at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH), Zurich, in cooperation with the Central Department for the Safety of Nuclear Installations of the Swiss Federal Agency of Energy Economy. In that setting the value of risk-oriented evaluation models as a decision tool in safety questions was discussed on a broad basis. Experts of international reputation from the Federal Republic of Germany, France, Canada, the United States and Switzerland have contributed to report in this joint volume on the uses of such models. Following an introductory synopsis on risk analysis and risk assessment the book deals with practical examples in the fields of medicine, nuclear power, chemistry, transport and civil engineering. Particular attention is paid to the dialogue between analysts and decision makers taking into account the economic-technical aspects and social values. The recent chemical disaster in the Indian city of Bhopal again signals the necessity of such analyses. All the lectures were recorded individually. (orig./HP) [de

Value-at-Risk analysis using ARMAX GARCHX approach for estimating risk of banking subsector stock return’s

Science.gov (United States)

Dewi Ratih, Iis; Sutijo Supri Ulama, Brodjol; Prastuti, Mike

2018-03-01

Value at Risk (VaR) is one of the statistical methods used to measure market risk by estimating the worst losses in a given time period and level of confidence. The accuracy of this measuring tool is very important in determining the amount of capital that must be provided by the company to cope with possible losses. Because there is a greater losses to be faced with a certain degree of probability by the greater risk. Based on this, VaR calculation analysis is of particular concern to researchers and practitioners of the stock market to be developed, thus getting more accurate measurement estimates. In this research, risk analysis of stocks in four banking sub-sector, Bank Rakyat Indonesia, Bank Mandiri, Bank Central Asia and Bank Negara Indonesia will be done. Stock returns are expected to be influenced by exogenous variables, namely ICI and exchange rate. Therefore, in this research, stock risk estimation are done by using VaR ARMAX-GARCHX method. Calculating the VaR value with the ARMAX-GARCHX approach using window 500 gives more accurate results. Overall, Bank Central Asia is the only bank had the estimated maximum loss in the 5% quantile.

Risk factors for common cancers among patients at Kamuzu Central ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Background: Little is known about risk factors for different cancers in Malawi. This study aimed to assess risk factors for and epidemiologic patterns of common cancers among patients treated at Kamuzu Central Hospital (KCH) in Lilongwe, and to determine the prevalence of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) infection in ...

Sovereign Credit Risk, Liquidity, and European Central Bank Intervention

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pelizzon, Loriana; Subrahmanyam, Marti G.; Tomio, Davide

2016-01-01

We examine the dynamic relation between credit risk and liquidity in the Italian sovereign bond market during the eurozone crisis and the subsequent European Central Bank (ECB) interventions. Credit risk drives the liquidity of the market. A 10% change in the credit default swap (CDS) spread leads...... to a 13% change in the bid-ask spread, the relation being stronger when the CDS spread exceeds 500 basis points. The Long-Term Refinancing Operations of the ECB weakened the sensitivity of market makers’ liquidity provision to credit risk, highlighting the importance of funding liquidity measures...

[Risk factors for suicide attempt among college students at Central South University].

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Hui-lan; Xiao, Shui-yuan; Feng, Shan-shan; Chen, Xi-xi

2004-04-01

To understand the prevalence and risk factors for suicidal ideation among college students and to provide a scientific basis for promoting psychological health and suicide prevention. 623 college students at Central South University were selected using stratified cluster sampling and administered a suicide ideation questionnaire, a Symptom Check List (SCL-90), an Adolescent Self-Rating Life Events Check List (ASLEC), a Social Support Rating Scale (SSRS) and a questionnaire about background information. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was employed to identify risk factors for suicide ideation. One year prior to our investigation, 14.6% of respondents had suicide ideation, 2.5% had made a specific suicide plan, and 1.8% had made a suicide attempt. The main risk factors for suicide ideation were dissatisfaction with the selected major of study, limited social support, recent negative life events and depressive tendency. The prevalence of suicide ideation among these college students was high. Appropriate measures focusing on the risk factors identified in this study should be urgently developed to prevent suicides in college students.

Adaptive servo ventilation for central sleep apnoea in heart failure : SERVE-HF on-treatment analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Woehrle, Holger; Cowie, Martin R.; Eulenburg, Christine; Suling, Anna; Angermann, Christiane; d'Ortho, Marie-Pia; Erdmann, Erland; Levy, Patrick; Simonds, Anita K.; Somers, Virend K.; Zannad, Faiez; Teschler, Helmut; Wegscheider, Karl

2017-01-01

This on-treatment analysis was conducted to facilitate understanding of mechanisms underlying the increased risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in heart failure patients with reduced ejection fraction and predominant central sleep apnoea randomised to adaptive servo ventilation versus the

Annual risks of tuberculous infection in East Nusa Tenggara and Central Java Provinces, Indonesia.

Science.gov (United States)

Bachtiar, A; Miko, T Y; Machmud, R; Besral, B; Yudarini, P; Mehta, F; Chadha, V K; Basri, C; Loprang, F; Jitendra, R

2009-01-01

East Nusa Tenggara (NTT) and Central Java Provinces, Indonesia. To estimate the average annual risk of tuberculous infection (ARTI) among school children aged 6-9 years in each province. Children attending Classes 1-4 in 65 schools in NTT and 79 in Central Java, selected by two-stage sampling, were intradermally administered 2 tuberculin units of purified protein derivative RT23 with Tween 80 on the mid-volar aspect of the left forearm. The maximum transverse diameter of induration was measured 72 h later. The analysis was carried out among 5479 satisfactorily test-read children in NTT and 6943 in Central Java. One hundred and fifty-five new sputum smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) cases (78 in NTT and 77 in Central Java) were also tuberculin tested. Based on the frequency distribution of reaction sizes among the children and PTB cases, the prevalence of infection was estimated by the mirror-image method using the modes of tuberculous reactions at 15 and 17 mm. Using the 15 mm mode, ARTI was estimated at 1% in NTT and 0.9% in Central Java. Using the 17 mm mode, ARTI was estimated at 0.5% in NTT and 0.4% in Central Java. Transmission of tuberculous infection may be further reduced by intensification of tuberculosis control efforts.

A case-control study to identify risk factors for totally implantable central venous port-related bloodstream infection.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Guk Jin; Hong, Sook Hee; Roh, Sang Young; Park, Sa Rah; Lee, Myung Ah; Chun, Hoo Geun; Hong, Young Seon; Kang, Jin Hyoung; Kim, Sang Il; Kim, Youn Jeong; Chun, Ho Jong; Oh, Jung Suk

2014-07-01

To date, the risk factors for central venous port-related bloodstream infection (CVPBSI) in solid cancer patients have not been fully elucidated. We conducted this study in order to determine the risk factors for CVP-BSI in patients with solid cancer. A total of 1,642 patients with solid cancer received an implantable central venous port for delivery of chemotherapy between October 2008 and December 2011 in a single center. CVP-BSI was diagnosed in 66 patients (4%). We selected a control group of 130 patients, who were individually matched with respect to age, sex, and catheter insertion time. CVP-BSI occurred most frequently between September and November (37.9%). The most common pathogen was gram-positive cocci (n=35, 53.0%), followed by fungus (n=14, 21.2%). Multivariate analysis identified monthly catheter-stay as a risk factor for CVP-BSI (p=0.000), however, its risk was lower in primary gastrointestinal cancer than in other cancer (p=0.002). Initial metastatic disease and long catheter-stay were statistically significant factors affecting catheter life span (p=0.005 and p=0.000). Results of multivariate analysis showed that recent transfusion was a risk factor for mortality in patients with CVP-BSI (p=0.047). In analysis of the results with respect to risk factors, prolonged catheter-stay should be avoided as much as possible. It is necessary to be cautious of CVP-BSI in metastatic solid cancer, especially non-gastrointestinal cancer. In addition, avoidance of unnecessary transfusion is essential in order to reduce the mortality of CVP-BSI. Finally, considering the fact that confounding factors may have affected the results, conduct of a well-designed prospective controlled study is warranted.

Islamic Influence on HIV Risk and Protection Among Central Asian Male Migrant Workers in Kazakhstan.

Science.gov (United States)

Shaw, Stacey A; McCrimmon, Tara; Mergenova, Gaukhar; Sultangaliyeva, Alma; El-Bassel, Nabila

2017-08-01

HIV incidence is increasing in Central Asia, where migrant workers experience risks for acquiring sexually transmitted HIV. As a social and structural factor that may influence perceptions and behavior, we examine how Islam shapes HIV risk and protection. Phenomenological qualitative interviews examine religion and contexts of HIV risk among 48 male Central Asian migrant workers residing in Almaty, Kazakhstan. Men described nonvaginal sex, alcohol use, premarital sex, and extramarital sex as forbidden or frowned upon. Religious networks were unlikely to discuss HIV risks, and some men viewed religious affiliation or practices as protective. Marital practices including neke (religious marriage), polygyny, and bride kidnapping may be linked to risk. Findings suggest adhering to Islamic ideals may be protective for some men, but for others, assumptions of protection may enhance risk. HIV prevention strategies among Central Asian migrants may be strengthened by attention to religious and cultural understandings of risk and protection.

Yellow fever risk assessment in the Central African Republic.

Science.gov (United States)

Staples, J Erin; Diallo, Mawlouth; Janusz, Kristen B; Manengu, Casimir; Lewis, Rosamund F; Perea, William; Yactayo, Sergio; Sall, Amadou A

2014-10-01

Starting in 2008, the Central African Republic (CAR) experienced an unprecedented number of reported yellow fever (YF) cases. A risk assessment of YF virus (YFV) activity was conducted to estimate potential disease risk and vaccine needs. A multistage cluster sampling design was used to sample humans, non-human primates, and mosquitoes in distinct ecologic zones. Humans and non-human primates were tested for YFV-specific antibodies; mosquitoes were tested for YFV RNA. Overall, 13.3% (125/938) of humans were found to have naturally-acquired YFV antibodies. Antibody levels were higher in zones in the southern and south central regions of CAR. All sampled non-human primates (n=56) were known YFV reservoirs; one tested positive for YFV antibodies. Several known YF vectors were identified including Aedes africanus, Ae. aegypti, Ae. luteocephalus, and Ae. simpsoni. Several more urban locations were found to have elevated Breateau and Container indices for Ae. aegypti. A country-wide assessment of YF risk found YFV to be endemic in CAR. The potential for future YF cases and outbreaks, however, varied by ecologic zone. Improved vaccination coverage through mass campaign and childhood immunization was recommended to mitigate the YF risk. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Analysis of risk factors in the development of retinopathy of prematurity.

Science.gov (United States)

Knezević, Sanja; Stojanović, Nadezda; Oros, Ana; Savić, Dragana; Simović, Aleksandra; Knezević, Jasmina

2011-01-01

Retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) is a multifactorial disease that occurs most frequently in very small and very sick preterm infants, and it has been identified as the major cause of childhood blindness. The aim of this study was to evaluate ROP incidence and risk factors associated with varying degrees of illness. The study was conducted at the Centre for Neonatology, Paediatric Clinic of the Clinical Centre Kragujevac, Serbia, in the period from June 2006 to December 2008. Ophthalmologic screening was performed in all children with body weight lower than 2000 g or gestational age lower than 36 weeks. We analyzed eighteen postnatal and six perinatal risk factors and the group correlations for each of the risk factors. Out of 317 children that were screened, 56 (17.7%) developed a mild form of ROP, while 68 (21.5%) developed a severe form. Univariate analysis revealed a large number of statistically significant risk factors for the development of ROP, especially the severe form. Multivariate logistical analysis further separated two independent risk factors: small birth weight (p = 0.001) and damage of central nervous system (p = 0.01). Independent risk factors for transition from mild to severe forms of ROP were identified as: small birth weight (p = 0.05) and perinatal risk factors (p = 0.02). Small birth weight and central nervous system damage were risk factors for the development of ROP, perinatal risk factors were identified as significant for transition from mild to severe form of ROP.

Low socioeconomic status may increase the risk of central obesity in incoming university students in Taiwan.

Science.gov (United States)

Chao, Chi-Yuan; Shih, Chi-Chen; Wang, Chi-Jen; Wu, Jin-Shang; Lu, Feng-Hwa; Chang, Chih-Jen; Yang, Yi-Ching

2014-01-01

Obesity is related to social disparity. The objective of the study was to evaluate different indicators of parental SES with the association of central obesity in young adult Taiwanese students. This study was cross-sectionally designed and a total of 4552 subjects were recruited. Each subject completed a self-administrated questionnaire and received anthropometric and laboratory measurements. The indicators of SES in study subjects included parental education, occupation, household incomes, childhood and current index of social position (ISP), measured according to the modified Hollingshead's ISP. Central obesity was defined as waist circumference ≥90 cm in men and ≥80 cm in women. The prevalence of central obesity was 10.7% in this study. When compared to subjects with normal waist circumferences, subjects with central obesity were older, had a higher BMI, both systolic and diastolic blood pressure, a higher proportion of male gender, family history of diabetes and hypertension, alcohol consumption habit, and a higher proportion of low current household income, current parental blue collar occupational level, and lower current and childhood parental ISP level. Multivariate analysis showed the current parental household income and ISP were significantly higher indicators of risk of central obesity after adjustment for possible confounding factors. The odds ratios were 1.26 and 1.30, respectively. Our results showed that low household income and current ISP were independently associated with the risk of central obesity. Therefore, young adults with low SES should be an important target group for prevention and management of central obesity in school health promotion programs. © 2014 Asian Oceanian Association for the Study of Obesity . Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mother-daughter correlation of central obesity and other noncommunicable disease risk factors: Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Heidari, Zahra; Hosseinpanah, Farhad; Barzin, Maryam; Safarkhani, Maryam; Azizi, Fereidoun

2015-03-01

This study aimed to investigate the mother-daughter correlation for central obesity and other noncommunicable disease risk factors. The authors used metabolic and anthropometric data from the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study, enrolling 1041 mother-daughter pairs for the current study. Three age strata were defined: 3 to 9 years for childhood (146 mother-daughter pairs), 10 to 17 years for adolescence (395 mother-daughter pairs), and 18 to 25 years for early adulthood (500 mother-daughter pairs). Familial associations for central obesity and other noncommunicable disease risk factors were assessed. The prevalence of central obesity was 44.7% in mothers and 11.2% in daughters (6.2% in the 3-9, 19.2% in the 10-17, and 6.4% in the 18-25 years groups). Mothers with central obesity were more likely than nonobese mothers to have daughters with central obesity (10.5% and 1.7%, respectively; P = .0001). Central obesity indices among daughters were positively correlated with those of their mothers in all 3 age strata. Correlations for other noncommunicable disease risk factors were analyzed before and after adjusting the risk factor levels for mothers' and daughters' waist circumferences (WCs) within each group to determine whether risk factor correlations were, in part, a result of the central obesity correlations. After the non-communicable disease risk factor levels of participants were adjusted for their WCs, the mother-daughter correlations remained significant. The consistent association of central obesity between mothers and daughters may indicate the key role that could be played by the mother in the primary prevention of central obesity, particularly in high-risk families. © 2012 APJPH.

THE ANALYSIS OF THE RELATION COUNTRY RISK – MULTIPLE VALUE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cristina Nicolescu

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Financial theory state that high expected growth, low risk in the company’s sector and low interest rates will push multiples higher. In this respect the goal of the empirical work is to examine country risk-multiple value relation, for the companies from emerging and frontier markets such as Central and East European ones. Specific control variables have been included in the model as proxy for growth opportunities, profitability, capital structure, and asset utilization. Using panel data analysis for period 2010-2015 as well as other financial variables for a sample of Central and East European countries during 2010-2015. The results partially support financial theories, mainly the significance of country risk and debt ratio and reject the growth opportunities hypothesis.

Fast network centrality analysis using GPUs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shi Zhiao

2011-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background With the exploding volume of data generated by continuously evolving high-throughput technologies, biological network analysis problems are growing larger in scale and craving for more computational power. General Purpose computation on Graphics Processing Units (GPGPU provides a cost-effective technology for the study of large-scale biological networks. Designing algorithms that maximize data parallelism is the key in leveraging the power of GPUs. Results We proposed an efficient data parallel formulation of the All-Pairs Shortest Path problem, which is the key component for shortest path-based centrality computation. A betweenness centrality algorithm built upon this formulation was developed and benchmarked against the most recent GPU-based algorithm. Speedup between 11 to 19% was observed in various simulated scale-free networks. We further designed three algorithms based on this core component to compute closeness centrality, eccentricity centrality and stress centrality. To make all these algorithms available to the research community, we developed a software package gpu-fan (GPU-based Fast Analysis of Networks for CUDA enabled GPUs. Speedup of 10-50× compared with CPU implementations was observed for simulated scale-free networks and real world biological networks. Conclusions gpu-fan provides a significant performance improvement for centrality computation in large-scale networks. Source code is available under the GNU Public License (GPL at http://bioinfo.vanderbilt.edu/gpu-fan/.

Analysis of risk factors in the development of retinopathy of prematurity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Knežević Sanja

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Introduction. Retinopathy of prematurity (ROP is a multifactorial disease that occurs most frequently in very small and very sick preterm infants, and it has been identified as the major cause of childhood blindness. Objective. The aim of this study was to evaluate ROP incidence and risk factors associated with varying degrees of illness. Methods. The study was conducted at the Centre for Neonatology, Paediatric Clinic of the Clinical Centre Kragujevac, Serbia, in the period from June 2006 to December 2008. Ophthalmologic screening was performed in all children with body weight lower than 2000 g or gestational age lower than 36 weeks. We analyzed eighteen postnatal and six perinatal risk factors and the group correlations for each of the risk factors. Results. Out of 317 children that were screened, 56 (17.7% developed a mild form of ROP, while 68 (21.5% developed a severe form. Univariate analysis revealed a large number of statistically significant risk factors for the development of ROP, especially the severe form. Multivariate logistical analysis further separated two independent risk factors: small birth weight (p=0.001 and damage of central nervous system (p=0.01. Independent risk factors for transition from mild to severe forms of ROP were identified as: small birth weight (p=0.05 and perinatal risk factors (p=0.02. Conclusion. Small birth weight and central nervous system damage were risk factors for the development of ROP, perinatal risk factors were identified as significant for transition from mild to severe form of ROP.

Incidence and risk factors for central venous access port-related infection in Chinese cancer patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Ting-Yao; Lee, Kuan-Der; Chen, Ping-Tsung; Chen, Min-Chi; Chen, Yi-Yang; Huang, Cih-En; Kuan, Feng-Che; Chen, Chih-Cheng; Lu, Chang Hsien

2015-11-01

Cytotoxic chemotherapy via central venous access ports is an important part of the standard treatment for most cancers, but it is accompanied with the risk of infections. This study aimed to analyze the incidence and risk factors for central venous access port-related infection (CPI) among Chinese patients receiving cytotoxic chemotherapy. Between January 1, 2002 and December 31, 2005 a total of 1391 cancer patients with 1449 totally implantable central venous access ports were evaluated. The log-rank test and Cox proportional hazards model were used for the analyses of risk factors. The overall CPI incidence rate was 0.21 per 1000 catheter-days. Hematological malignancies and head and neck cancer were associated with an increased risk of CPI (hazard ratio 4.00 and 4.11, respectively, both p risk of infection than for patients in a nonadjuvant setting (p ports. Implementation of an insertion bundle for the prevention of central line-associated bloodstream infections is warranted, especially for those patients with hematological and head and neck cancers, as well as for patients receiving chemotherapy in the metastatic settings. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Central nervous system medications and falls risk in men aged 60-75 years

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Masud, Tahir; Frost, Morten; Ryg, Jesper

2013-01-01

Introduction: drugs acting on the central nervous system (CNS) increase falls risk. Most data on CNS drugs and falls are in women/mixed-sex populations. This study assessed the relationship between CNS drugs and falls in men aged 60-75 years.......Introduction: drugs acting on the central nervous system (CNS) increase falls risk. Most data on CNS drugs and falls are in women/mixed-sex populations. This study assessed the relationship between CNS drugs and falls in men aged 60-75 years....

Information security risk analysis

CERN Document Server

Peltier, Thomas R

2001-01-01

Effective Risk AnalysisQualitative Risk AnalysisValue AnalysisOther Qualitative MethodsFacilitated Risk Analysis Process (FRAP)Other Uses of Qualitative Risk AnalysisCase StudyAppendix A: QuestionnaireAppendix B: Facilitated Risk Analysis Process FormsAppendix C: Business Impact Analysis FormsAppendix D: Sample of ReportAppendix E: Threat DefinitionsAppendix F: Other Risk Analysis OpinionsIndex

Risk factors for central line-associated bloodstream infection in pediatric oncology patients with a totally implantable venous access port: A cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

Viana Taveira, Michelle Ribeiro; Lima, Luciana Santana; de Araújo, Cláudia Corrêa; de Mello, Maria Júlia Gonçalves

2017-02-01

Totally implantable venous access ports (TIVAPs) are used for prolonged central venous access, allowing the infusion of chemotherapy and other fluids and improving the quality of life of children with cancer. TIVAPs were developed to reduce the infection rates associated with central venous catheters; however, infectious events remain common and have not been fully investigated in pediatric oncology patients. A retrospective cohort was formed to investigate risk factors for central line-associated bloodstream infection (CLABSI) in pediatric cancer patients. Sociodemographic, clinical, and TIVAP insertion-related variables were evaluated, with the endpoint being the first CLABSI. A Kaplan-Meier analysis was performed to determine CLABSI-free catheter survival. Overall, 188 children were evaluated over 77,541 catheter days, with 94 being diagnosed with CLABSI (50%). Although coagulase-negative staphylococci were the pathogens most commonly isolated, Gram-negative microorganisms (46.8%) were also prevalent. In the multivariate analysis, factors that increased the risk for CLABSI were TIVAP insertion prior to chemotherapy (risk ratio [RR] = 1.56; P Risk factors for CLABSI in pediatric cancer patients with a TIVAP may be related to the severity of the child's condition at catheter insertion. Insertion of the catheter before chemotherapy and unfavorable conditions such as malnutrition and bone marrow aplasia can increase the risk of CLABSI. Protocols must be revised and surveillance increased over the first 10 weeks of treatment. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Risk across disciplines: An interdisciplinary examination of water and drought risk in South-Central Oklahoma

Science.gov (United States)

Lazrus, H.; Paimazumder, D.; Towler, E.; McPherson, R. A.

2013-12-01

Drought is a challenge faced by communities across the United States, exacerbated by growing demands on water resources and climate variability and change. The Arbuckle-Simpson Aquifer (ASA) in south-central Oklahoma, situated in the heart of the Chickasaw Nation, is the state's only sole-source groundwater basin and sustains the Blue River, the state's only free-flowing river. The recent comprehensive hydrological studies of the aquifer indicate the need for sustainable management of the amount of water extracted. However, the question of how to deal with that management in the face of increasing drought vulnerability, diverse demands, and climate variability and change remains. Water management carries a further imperative to be inclusive of tribal and non-tribal interests. To examine this question, we are conducting an investigation of drought risk from multiple disciplines. Anthropological data comes from stakeholder interviews that were designed to investigate conflict over water management by understanding how people perceive risk differently based on different opinions about the structure of the resource, varying levels of trust in authorities, and unequal access to resources. . The Cultural Theory of Risk is used to explain how people view risks as part of their worldviews and why people who hold different worldviews disagree about risks associated with water availability. Meteorological analyses of longitudinal data indicate periods of drought that are noted in stakeholder interviews. Analysis of stream gauge data investigates the influence of climate variability on local hydrologic impacts, such as changing groundwater levels and streamflows, that are relevant to planning and management decisions in the ASA. Quantitative assessment of future drought risk and associated uncertainty and their effect on type and scale of future economic and social impacts are achieved by combining elements of statistical and dynamical downscaling to improve predictions of

Predictive susceptibility analysis of typhoon induced landslides in Central Taiwan

Science.gov (United States)

Shou, Keh-Jian; Lin, Zora

2017-04-01

Climate change caused by global warming affects Taiwan significantly for the past decade. The increasing frequency of extreme rainfall events, in which concentrated and intensive rainfalls generally cause geohazards including landslides and debris flows. The extraordinary, such as 2004 Mindulle and 2009 Morakot, hit Taiwan and induced serious flooding and landslides. This study employs rainfall frequency analysis together with the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) downscaling estimation to understand the temporal rainfall trends, distributions, and intensities in the adopted Wu River watershed in Central Taiwan. To assess the spatial hazard of the landslides, landslide susceptibility analysis was also applied. Different types of rainfall factors were tested in the susceptibility models for a better accuracy. In addition, the routes of typhoons were also considered in the predictive analysis. The results of predictive analysis can be applied for risk prevention and management in the study area.

Central hemodynamics in risk assessment strategies: additive value over and above brachial blood pressure.

Science.gov (United States)

Yannoutsos, Alexandra; Rinaldi, Elisa R; Zhang, Yi; Protogerou, Athanassios D; Safar, Michel E; Blacher, Jacques

2015-01-01

Although the clinical relevance of brachial blood pressure (BP) measurement for cardiovascular (CV) risk stratification is nowadays widely accepted, this approach can nevertheless present several limitations. Pulse pressure (PP) amplification accounts for the notable increase in PP from central to peripheral arterial sites. Target organs are more greatly exposed to central hemodynamic changes than peripheral organs. The pathophysiological significance of local BP pulsatility, which has a role in the pathogenesis of target organ damage in both the macro- and the microcirculation, may therefore not be accurately captured by brachial BP as traditionally evaluated with cuff measurements. The predictive value of central systolic BP and PP over brachial BP for major clinical outcomes has been demonstrated in the general population, in elderly adults and in patients at high CV risk, irrespective of the invasive or non-invasive methods used to assess central BP. Aortic stiffness, timing and intensity of wave reflections, and cardiac performance appear as major factors influencing central PP. Great emphasis has been placed on the role of aortic stiffness, disturbed arterial wave reflections and their intercorrelation in the pathophysiological mechanisms of CV diseases as well as on their capacity to predict target organ damage and clinical events. Comorbidities and age-related changes, together with gender-related specificities of arterial and cardiac parameters, are known to affect the predictive ability of central hemodynamics on individual CV risk.

Transparent polyurethane film as an intravenous catheter dressing. A meta-analysis of the infection risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Hoffmann, K K; Weber, D J; Samsa, G P; Rutala, W A

1992-04-15

To obtain a quantitative estimate of the impact on infectious complications of using transparent dressings with intravenous catheters. Meta-analysis of all studies published in the English literature, including abstracts, letters, and reports that examined the primary research question of infection risks associated with transparent compared with gauze dressings for use on central and peripheral venous catheters. Studies were identified by use of the MEDLINE database using the indexing terms occlusive dressings, transparent dressings, and infection and by review of referenced bibliographies. Seven of the 15 studies (47%) of central venous catheters and seven of 12 studies (58%) of peripheral catheters met our inclusion criteria for analysis. All studies used a prospective cohort design, utilized hospitalized patients, and reported at least one of our defined outcomes. Data for each study were abstracted independently by three investigators. At least three studies were used in the analysis of each outcome. Applying a Mantel-Haenszel chi 2 analysis, use of transparent dressings on central venous catheters was significantly associated with an elevated relative risk (RR) of catheter tip infection (RR = 1.78; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.38 to 2.30). Catheter-related sepsis (RR = 1.69; 95% CI, 0.97 to 2.95) and bacteremia (RR = 1.63; 95% CI, 0.76 to 3.47) were both associated with an elevated RR. Use of transparent dressings on peripheral catheters was associated with an elevated RR of catheter-tip infection (RR = 1.53; 95% CI, 1.18 to 1.99) but not phlebitis (RR = 1.02; 95% CI, 0.86 to 1.20), infiltration (RR = 1.12; 95% CI, 0.92 to 1.37), or skin colonization (RR = 0.99; 95% CI, 0.90 to 1.09). The results demonstrated a significantly increased risk of catheter-tip infection with the use of transparent compared with gauze dressings when used with either central or peripheral catheters. An increased risk of bacteremia and catheter sepsis associated with the use of

Risks on N-acetyltransferase 2 and bladder cancer: a meta-analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhu Z

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Zongheng Zhu,1 Jinshan Zhang,2 Wei Jiang,3 Xianjue Zhang,4 Youkong Li,4 Xiaoming Xu51Department of General Surgery, Huangshi Love & Health Hospital, Huangshi, 2Department of Tumor surgery, Huangshi Central Hospital, Huangshi, 3Department of Urinary Surgery, Huangshi No 5 Hospital, Huangshi, 4Department of Urinary Surgery Jingzhou Central Hospital, Jingzhou, 5Department of Bone Surgery, Jingzhou Central Hospital, Jingzhou, People’s Republic of ChinaBackground: It is known that bladder cancer disease is closely related to aromatic amine compounds, which could cause cancer by regulating of N-acetylation and N-acetyltransferase 1 and 2 (NAT1 and NAT2. The NAT2 slowed acetylation and would increase the risk of bladder cancer, with tobacco smoke being regarded as a risk factor for this increased risk. However, the relationship between NAT2 slow acetylation and bladder cancer is still debatable at present. This study aims to explore preliminarily correlation of NAT2 slow acetylation and the risk of bladder cancer.Methods: The articles were searched from PubMed, Cochran, McGrane English databases, CBM, CNKI, and other databases. The extraction of bladder cancer patients and a control group related with the NAT2 gene were detected by the state, and the referenced articles and publications were also used for data retrieval. Using a random effects model, the model assumes that the studies included in the analysis cases belong to the overall population in the study of random sampling, and considering the variables within and between studies. Data were analyzed using STATA Version 6.0 software, using the META module. According to the inclusion and exclusion criteria of the literature study, 20 independent studies are included in this meta-analysis.Results: The results showed that the individual differences of bladder cancer susceptibility might be part of the metabolism of carcinogens. Slow acetylation status of bladder cancer associated with the pooled

Risk of central nervous system defects in offspring of women with and without mental illness.

Science.gov (United States)

Ayoub, Aimina; Fraser, William D; Low, Nancy; Arbour, Laura; Healy-Profitós, Jessica; Auger, Nathalie

2018-02-22

We sought to determine the relationship between maternal mental illness and the risk of having an infant with a central nervous system defect. We analyzed a cohort of 654,882 women aged less than 20 years between 1989 and 2013 who later delivered a live born infant in any hospital in Quebec, Canada. The primary exposure was mental illness during pregnancy or hospitalization for mental illness before pregnancy. The outcomes were neural and non-neural tube defects of the central nervous system in any offspring. We computed risk ratios (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the association between mental disorders and risk of central nervous system defects in log-binomial regression models adjusted for age at delivery, total parity, comorbidity, socioeconomic deprivation, place of residence, and time period. Maternal mental illness was associated with an increased risk of nervous system defects in offspring (RR 1.76, 95% CI 1.64-1.89). Hospitalization for any mental disorder was more strongly associated with non-neural tube (RR 1.84, 95% CI 1.71-1.99) than neural tube defects (RR 1.31, 95% CI 1.08-1.59). Women at greater risk of nervous system defects in offspring tended to be diagnosed with multiple mental disorders, have more than one hospitalization for mental disease, or be 17 or older at first hospitalization. A history of mental illness is associated with central nervous system defects in offspring. Women hospitalized for mental illness may merit counseling at first symptoms to prevent central nervous system defects at pregnancy.

Risk Factors for Subsequent Central Nervous System Tumors in Pediatric Allogeneic Hematopoietic Cell Transplant

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gabriel, Melissa; Shaw, Bronwen E; Brazauskas, Ruta

2017-01-01

Survivors of hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) are at risk of subsequent solid tumors, including central nervous system (CNS) tumors. The risk of CNS tumors after HCT in pediatric HCT recipients is not known. We evaluated the incidence and risk factors for CNS tumors in pediatric recipients...

Mapping risk of cadmium and lead contamination to human health in soils of Central Iran

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Amini, M.; Afyuni, M.; Khademi, H.; Abbaspour, K.C.; Schulin, R.

2005-01-01

In order to map Cd and Pb contamination in the soils of the region of Isfahan, Central Iran, we performed indicator kriging on a set of 255 topsoil samples (0-20 cm) gathered irregularly from an area of 6800 km 2 . The measured Cd concentrations exceeded the Swiss guide value in more than 80% of the samples whereas Pb concentrations exceeded the respective guide value only in 2% of the samples. Based on the simulated conditional distribution functions, the probability of exceeding the concentration of Cd and Pb from the specific threshold was computed. The results indicated that in most parts of the region the probability of contamination by Cd is very large (>0.95) whereas it is small (<0.5) for Pb. Based on a misclassification analysis, we chose the probability of 0.45 as optimum probability threshold to delineate the polluted from unpolluted areas for Cd. In addition, we performed a loss analysis to separate risks to human health from potential losses due to remediation costs. Based on this analysis a probability threshold of 0.8 was found to be the optimum threshold for the classification of polluted and unpolluted areas in the case of Cd. Health risks were found to be larger in the western parts of the region. Misclassification analysis was sufficient for risk mapping for Pb as its concentration did not reach risk levels for human health. A probability of 0.7 for Pb was found to be the optimum threshold for the delineation of polluted and unpolluted lands

Social network analysis using k-Path centrality method

Science.gov (United States)

Taniarza, Natya; Adiwijaya; Maharani, Warih

2018-03-01

k-Path centrality is deemed as one of the effective methods to be applied in centrality measurement in which the influential node is estimated as the node that is being passed by information path frequently. Regarding this, k-Path centrality has been employed in the analysis of this paper specifically by adapting random-algorithm approach in order to: (1) determine the influential user’s ranking in a social media Twitter; and (2) ascertain the influence of parameter α in the numeration of k-Path centrality. According to the analysis, the findings showed that the method of k-Path centrality with random-algorithm approach can be used to determine user’s ranking which influences in the dissemination of information in Twitter. Furthermore, the findings also showed that parameter α influenced the duration and the ranking results: the less the α value, the longer the duration, yet the ranking results were more stable.

Risk of chromosomal abnormalities in early spontaneous abortion after assisted reproductive technology: a meta-analysis.

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Jun-Zhen Qin

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Studies on the risk of chromosomal abnormalities in early spontaneous abortion after assisted reproductive technology (ART are relatively controversial and insufficient. Thus, to obtain a more precise evaluation of the risk of embryonic chromosomal abnormalities in first-trimester miscarriage after ART, we performed a meta-analysis of all available case-control studies relating to the cytogenetic analysis of chromosomal abnormalities in first-trimester miscarriage after ART. METHODS: Literature search in the electronic databases MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL based on the established strategy. Meta-regression, subgroup analysis, and Galbraith plots were conducted to explore the sources of heterogeneity. RESULTS: A total of 15 studies with 1,896 cases and 1,186 controls relevant to the risk of chromosomal abnormalities in first- trimester miscarriage after ART, and 8 studies with 601 cases and 602 controls evaluating frequency of chromosome anomaly for maternal age≥35 versus <35 were eligible for the meta-analysis. No statistical difference was found in risk of chromosomally abnormal miscarriage compared to natural conception and the different types of ART utilized, whereas the risk of fetal aneuploidy significantly increased with maternal age≥35 (OR 2.88, 95% CI: 1.74-4.77. CONCLUSIONS: ART treatment does not present an increased risk for chromosomal abnormalities occurring in a first trimester miscarriage, but incidence of fetal aneuploidy could increase significantly with advancing maternal age.

Dynamic risk analysis using bow-tie approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khakzad, Nima; Khan, Faisal; Amyotte, Paul

2012-01-01

Accident probability estimation is a common and central step to all quantitative risk assessment methods. Among many techniques available, bow-tie model (BT) is very popular because it represent the accident scenario altogether including causes and consequences. However, it suffers a static structure limiting its application in real-time monitoring and probability updating which are key factors in dynamic risk analysis. The present work is focused on using BT approach in a dynamic environment in which the occurrence probability of accident consequences changes. In this method, on one hand, failure probability of primary events of BT, leading to the top event, are developed using physical reliability models, and constantly revised as physical parameters (e.g., pressure, velocity, dimension, etc) change. And, on the other hand, the failure probability of safety barriers of the BT are periodically updated using Bayes’ theorem as new information becomes available over time. Finally, the resulting, updated BT is used to estimate the posterior probability of the consequences which in turn results in an updated risk profile. - Highlights: ► A methodology is proposed to make bow-tie method adapted for dynamic risk analysis. ► Physical reliability models are used to revise the top event. ► Bayes’ theorem is used to update the probability of safety barriers. ► The number of accidents in sequential time intervals is used to form likelihood function. ► The risk profile is updated for varying physical parameters and for different times.

Occupational and Cost Risk : Critical Analysis of Monetization Policy Risk Approach to the Spanish Law Standards

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Marco Antônio César Villatore

2016-06-01

Full Text Available The problem that surrounds the issue of occupational risk is a phenomenon that plagues every society, because the work is a central element and gives force to the economy. In this sense, the exposure of workers to harmful activities that may cause damage to your health and physical and mental integrity, based on the monetization policy of risk adopted by the Brazilian legal system, can import costs to the workers, employers, the state and society. Thus, the present study seeks, from the labor law analysis and the use of concepts of Economic Analysis of Law, attest that the social costs caused by worker exposure to risk is, fallaciously shown, in a short-term smaller than that of prevention, but in the long run can import the burden on all parties of the employment relationship as well as the State and society, being necessary to use economic and legal measures for changing the monetization of risk policy, as in alien systems, as the Spanish Law analyzed.

Ontology-based specification, identification and analysis of perioperative risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Uciteli, Alexandr; Neumann, Juliane; Tahar, Kais; Saleh, Kutaiba; Stucke, Stephan; Faulbrück-Röhr, Sebastian; Kaeding, André; Specht, Martin; Schmidt, Tobias; Neumuth, Thomas; Besting, Andreas; Stegemann, Dominik; Portheine, Frank; Herre, Heinrich

2017-09-06

Medical personnel in hospitals often works under great physical and mental strain. In medical decision-making, errors can never be completely ruled out. Several studies have shown that between 50 and 60% of adverse events could have been avoided through better organization, more attention or more effective security procedures. Critical situations especially arise during interdisciplinary collaboration and the use of complex medical technology, for example during surgical interventions and in perioperative settings (the period of time before, during and after surgical intervention). In this paper, we present an ontology and an ontology-based software system, which can identify risks across medical processes and supports the avoidance of errors in particular in the perioperative setting. We developed a practicable definition of the risk notion, which is easily understandable by the medical staff and is usable for the software tools. Based on this definition, we developed a Risk Identification Ontology (RIO) and used it for the specification and the identification of perioperative risks. An agent system was developed, which gathers risk-relevant data during the whole perioperative treatment process from various sources and provides it for risk identification and analysis in a centralized fashion. The results of such an analysis are provided to the medical personnel in form of context-sensitive hints and alerts. For the identification of the ontologically specified risks, we developed an ontology-based software module, called Ontology-based Risk Detector (OntoRiDe). About 20 risks relating to cochlear implantation (CI) have already been implemented. Comprehensive testing has indicated the correctness of the data acquisition, risk identification and analysis components, as well as the web-based visualization of results.

Comparative risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Niehaus, F.

1988-01-01

In this paper, the risks of various energy systems are discussed considering severe accidents analysis, particularly the probabilistic safety analysis, and probabilistic safety criteria, and the applications of these criteria and analysis. The comparative risk analysis has demonstrated that the largest source of risk in every society is from daily small accidents. Nevertheless, we have to be more concerned about severe accidents. The comparative risk analysis of five different energy systems (coal, oil, gas, LWR and STEC (Solar)) for the public has shown that the main sources of risks are coal and oil. The latest comparative risk study of various energy has been conducted in the USA and has revealed that the number of victims from coal is 42 as many than victims from nuclear. A study for severe accidents from hydro-dams in United States has estimated the probability of dam failures at 1 in 10,000 years and the number of victims between 11,000 and 260,000. The average occupational risk from coal is one fatal accident in 1,000 workers/year. The probabilistic safety analysis is a method that can be used to assess nuclear energy risks, and to analyze the severe accidents, and to model all possible accident sequences and consequences. The 'Fault tree' analysis is used to know the probability of failure of the different systems at each point of accident sequences and to calculate the probability of risks. After calculating the probability of failure, the criteria for judging the numerical results have to be developed, that is the quantitative and qualitative goals. To achieve these goals, several systems have been devised by various countries members of AIEA. The probabilistic safety ana-lysis method has been developed by establishing a computer program permit-ting to know different categories of safety related information. 19 tabs. (author)

The development of a risk score for unplanned removal of peripherally inserted central catheter in newborns

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Priscila Costa

2015-06-01

Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: to develop a risk score for unplanned removal of peripherally inserted central catheter in newborns.METHOD: prospective cohort study conducted in a neonatal intensive care unit with newborn babies who underwent 524 catheter insertions. The clinical characteristics of the newborn, catheter insertion and intravenous therapy were tested as risk factors for the unplanned removal of catheters using bivariate analysis. The risk score was developed using logistic regression. Accuracy was internally validated based on the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve.RESULTS: the risk score was made up of the following risk factors: transient metabolic disorders; previous insertion of catheter; use of a polyurethane double-lumen catheter; infusion of multiple intravenous solutions through a single-lumen catheter; and tip in a noncentral position. Newborns were classified into three categories of risk of unplanned removal: low (0 to 3 points, moderate (4 to 8 points, and high (≥ 9 points. Accuracy was 0.76.CONCLUSION: the adoption of evidence-based preventative strategies based on the classification and risk factors faced by the newborn is recommended to minimize the occurrence of unplanned removals.

Strengthening the Three Lines of Defence in Terms of More Efficient Operational Risk Management in Central Banks

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Luburić Radoica

2017-01-01

Full Text Available This paper is the result of the author`s many years of multidisciplinary research in the areas of quality management and operational risk management. The main focus of the research is aimed at strengthening the model of the “three lines of defence” in terms of more efficient management of operational risks - those that arise as a result of inadequate and unsuccessful processes and systems, human factors, as well as those that can appear as a result of external events. The strengthening of the three lines of defence model is brought about through the synergy of quality management principles, the principles of risk management, and the total quality management approach. In essence, the term strengthening may be interpreted as a process of continual improvement. Business operations based on the principles of quality management and risk management allow central banks to be able to continuously improve their overall business performance. The principles of quality management contain properly aligned and matched best solutions from current management theory and practice. Designed to work together - and this essentially means in a consistent, synchronized and synergistic manner, the principles are translated into a series of requirements and guidelines of international standards suitable for implementation. Through their synergy, the principles of quality management and risk management, as well as approaches to total quality management form a clear, applicable and sustainable paradigm of successful management of central banks. Incorporation of the principles of quality management in central bank systems and processes would significantly strengthen the three lines of defence, in terms of efficient operational risk management, which this paper aims to show in a clear and comprehensive manner. Although any central bank is a specific institution, all the principles of quality management and risk management can be applied to its operations. In addition to

Foundations of Risk Analysis

CERN Document Server

Aven, Terje

2012-01-01

Foundations of Risk Analysis presents the issues core to risk analysis - understanding what risk means, expressing risk, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real problems. The author provides the readers with the knowledge and basic thinking they require to successfully manage risk and uncertainty to support decision making. This updated edition reflects recent developments on risk and uncertainty concepts, representations and treatment. New material in Foundations of Risk Analysis includes:An up to date presentation of how to understand, define and

Probabilistic risk analysis and terrorism risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Ezell, Barry Charles; Bennett, Steven P; von Winterfeldt, Detlof; Sokolowski, John; Collins, Andrew J

2010-04-01

Since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and the subsequent establishment of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), considerable efforts have been made to estimate the risks of terrorism and the cost effectiveness of security policies to reduce these risks. DHS, industry, and the academic risk analysis communities have all invested heavily in the development of tools and approaches that can assist decisionmakers in effectively allocating limited resources across the vast array of potential investments that could mitigate risks from terrorism and other threats to the homeland. Decisionmakers demand models, analyses, and decision support that are useful for this task and based on the state of the art. Since terrorism risk analysis is new, no single method is likely to meet this challenge. In this article we explore a number of existing and potential approaches for terrorism risk analysis, focusing particularly on recent discussions regarding the applicability of probabilistic and decision analytic approaches to bioterrorism risks and the Bioterrorism Risk Assessment methodology used by the DHS and criticized by the National Academies and others.

MATHEMATICAL RISK ANALYSIS: VIA NICHOLAS RISK MODEL AND BAYESIAN ANALYSIS

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Anass BAYAGA

2010-07-01

Full Text Available The objective of this second part of a two-phased study was to explorethe predictive power of quantitative risk analysis (QRA method andprocess within Higher Education Institution (HEI. The method and process investigated the use impact analysis via Nicholas risk model and Bayesian analysis, with a sample of hundred (100 risk analysts in a historically black South African University in the greater Eastern Cape Province.The first findings supported and confirmed previous literature (KingIII report, 2009: Nicholas and Steyn, 2008: Stoney, 2007: COSA, 2004 that there was a direct relationship between risk factor, its likelihood and impact, certiris paribus. The second finding in relation to either controlling the likelihood or the impact of occurrence of risk (Nicholas risk model was that to have a brighter risk reward, it was important to control the likelihood ofoccurrence of risks as compared with its impact so to have a direct effect on entire University. On the Bayesian analysis, thus third finding, the impact of risk should be predicted along three aspects. These aspects included the human impact (decisions made, the property impact (students and infrastructural based and the business impact. Lastly, the study revealed that although in most business cases, where as business cycles considerably vary dependingon the industry and or the institution, this study revealed that, most impacts in HEI (University was within the period of one academic.The recommendation was that application of quantitative risk analysisshould be related to current legislative framework that affects HEI.

Prevalence and risk factors associated with Sarcocystis neurona infections in opossums (Didelphis virginiana) from central California.

Science.gov (United States)

Rejmanek, Daniel; Vanwormer, Elizabeth; Miller, Melissa A; Mazet, Jonna A K; Nichelason, Amy E; Melli, Ann C; Packham, Andrea E; Jessup, David A; Conrad, Patricia A

2009-12-03

Sarcocystis neurona, a protozoal parasite shed by opossums (Didelphis virginiana), has been shown to cause significant morbidity and mortality in horses, sea otters, and other marine mammals. Over the course of 3 years (fall 2005-summer 2008), opossums from central California were tested for infection with S. neurona. Of 288 opossums sampled, 17 (5.9%) were infected with S. neurona based on the molecular characterization of sporocysts from intestinal scrapings or feces. Risk factors evaluated for association with S. neurona infection in opossums included: age, sex, location, season, presence of pouch young in females, concomitant infection, and sampling method (live-trapped or traffic-killed). Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified that opossums in the Central Valley were 9 times more likely to be infected than those near the coast (p=0.009). Similarly, opossum infection was 5 times more likely to be detected during the reproductive season (March-July; p=0.013). This first investigation of S. neurona infection prevalence and associated risk factors in opossums in the western United States can be used to develop management strategies aimed at reducing the incidence of S. neurona infections in susceptible hosts, including horses and threatened California sea otters (Enhydra lutris neries).

Risk assessment of chemicals: A central European perspective

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bencko, Vladimir [Institute of Hygiene, 1st Medical Faculty, Charles University, Prague (Czech Republic); Ungvary, Gyoergy [National Institute of Occupational Health, Budapest (Hungary)

1992-07-01

During the last four decades in the Czech and Slovak federal Republic (CSFR) and Hungary, similar to the previous Soviet Union and all the Central and East European countries the prevention of the adverse health effects of chemicals in occupational and environmental settings, drinking water and food of population was intended to be achieved by determination and compulsory observance of hygienic limit values. From recent political developments it can be expected that due to the decay of the former Warsaw Pact and the related Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (CMEA) the next development of risk assessment will reflect that new situation. The OECD principles of toxicity testing and risk assessment of exposure to chemicals will be sooner or later accepted in principle in the framework of a general economic integration of Central and Eastern European countries with EEC. During the 80s there was a growing feeling of the necessity to harmonize the activities of OECD and CMEA countries in the field of toxicological methodology and approaches to risk assessment of chemicals because of the growing production and mutual trade including transport of industrial and agricultural chemicals. As a contributory factor supporting this effort there was growing cross boundary air and river pollution in Europe. The former Council for Mutual Economic Assistance was an intergovernmental organization of 10 countries with a number of other countries and agencies cooperating with it in its work. CMEA as, and OECD still is concerned primarily with economic development but both had stated commitments to protecting human health and the environment. To help to mutual understanding and to promote harmonization of above mentioned obligations and commitments of the both organizations United Nation Environment Programme's International Registry of Potentially Toxic Chemicals and The International Programme on Chemical Safety (UNEP/IRPTC/IPCS) convened an International Consultation on

Risk assessment of chemicals: A central European perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bencko, Vladimir; Gyoergy Ungvary

1992-01-01

During the last four decades in the Czech and Slovak federal Republic (CSFR) and Hungary, similar to the previous Soviet Union and all the Central and East European countries the prevention of the adverse health effects of chemicals in occupational and environmental settings, drinking water and food of population was intended to be achieved by determination and compulsory observance of hygienic limit values. From recent political developments it can be expected that due to the decay of the former Warsaw Pact and the related Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (CMEA) the next development of risk assessment will reflect that new situation. The OECD principles of toxicity testing and risk assessment of exposure to chemicals will be sooner or later accepted in principle in the framework of a general economic integration of Central and Eastern European countries with EEC. During the 80s there was a growing feeling of the necessity to harmonize the activities of OECD and CMEA countries in the field of toxicological methodology and approaches to risk assessment of chemicals because of the growing production and mutual trade including transport of industrial and agricultural chemicals. As a contributory factor supporting this effort there was growing cross boundary air and river pollution in Europe. The former Council for Mutual Economic Assistance was an intergovernmental organization of 10 countries with a number of other countries and agencies cooperating with it in its work. CMEA as, and OECD still is concerned primarily with economic development but both had stated commitments to protecting human health and the environment. To help to mutual understanding and to promote harmonization of above mentioned obligations and commitments of the both organizations United Nation Environment Programme's International Registry of Potentially Toxic Chemicals and The International Programme on Chemical Safety (UNEP/IRPTC/IPCS) convened an International Consultation on

The Aspects of Managing Risks in Connection with the Internationalization of Smes from Selected Central European Countries

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Martina Toulová

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Insufficient domestic demand and increasing competition force small and medium‑sized enterprises (SMEs to engage in internationalization process and enter to foreign markets. This process, however, carries risks that should be appropriate managed. In order to identify similarities and differences in the approach of SMEs from selected Central European countries towards managing these risks and find out whether perception of risks differ based on domestic country of the SMEs, questionnaire survey among Czech, Slovak, German, Austrian and Poland SMEs was performed in 2014. It was found that more Austrian and German SMEs, compared to Czech, Slovak and Polish SMEs, do not apply any method of risk analysis but are more focused on some form of protection in international operations. As the most common form was identified payment in advance. It was also found that Austrian and German SMEs prefer to use bank products rather that conclude long‑term contracts or verify the credibility of their foreign business partners used by Czech, Slovak and Poland SMEs. Based on statistical testing, significant differences appeared in risk perception of SMEs from different countries. Especially perception of market risks, transportation risks and risk of natural disasters.

Arterial stiffness, central hemodynamics, and cardiovascular risk in hypertension

Science.gov (United States)

Palatini, Paolo; Casiglia, Edoardo; Gąsowski, Jerzy; Głuszek, Jerzy; Jankowski, Piotr; Narkiewicz, Krzysztof; Saladini, Francesca; Stolarz-Skrzypek, Katarzyna; Tikhonoff, Valérie; Van Bortel, Luc; Wojciechowska, Wiktoria; Kawecka-Jaszcz, Kalina

2011-01-01

This review summarizes several scientific contributions at the recent Satellite Symposium of the European Society of Hypertension, held in Milan, Italy. Arterial stiffening and its hemodynamic consequences can be easily and reliably measured using a range of noninvasive techniques. However, like blood pressure (BP) measurements, arterial stiffness should be measured carefully under standardized patient conditions. Carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity has been proposed as the gold standard for arterial stiffness measurement and is a well recognized predictor of adverse cardiovascular outcome. Systolic BP and pulse pressure in the ascending aorta may be lower than pressures measured in the upper limb, especially in young individuals. A number of studies suggest closer correlation of end-organ damage with central BP than with peripheral BP, and central BP may provide additional prognostic information regarding cardiovascular risk. Moreover, BP-lowering drugs can have differential effects on central aortic pressures and hemodynamics compared with brachial BP. This may explain the greater beneficial effect provided by newer antihypertensive drugs beyond peripheral BP reduction. Although many methodological problems still hinder the wide clinical application of parameters of arterial stiffness, these will likely contribute to cardiovascular assessment and management in future clinical practice. Each of the abovementioned parameters reflects a different characteristic of the atherosclerotic process, involving functional and/or morphological changes in the vessel wall. Therefore, acquiring simultaneous measurements of different parameters of vascular function and structure could theoretically enhance the power to improve risk stratification. Continuous technological effort is necessary to refine our methods of investigation in order to detect early arterial abnormalities. Arterial stiffness and its consequences represent the great challenge of the twenty-first century for

Culture and landslide risk in the Central Andes of Bolivia and Peru

OpenAIRE

Nicholas Roberts

2009-01-01

Culture and its heritage play a major role in determining landslide risk in the Central Andes. Examples of some of these many possible influences are provided from natural and social science literature and from the author’s recent work in Bolivia. Landslide risk appears to have generally increased throughout the last millennium, due largely to anthropogenic modification of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and coping capacity. These changes result from both local and distant pressures and from ...

Modeling infection transmission in primate networks to predict centrality-based risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Romano, Valéria; Duboscq, Julie; Sarabian, Cécile; Thomas, Elodie; Sueur, Cédric; MacIntosh, Andrew J J

2016-07-01

Social structure can theoretically regulate disease risk by mediating exposure to pathogens via social proximity and contact. Investigating the role of central individuals within a network may help predict infectious agent transmission as well as implement disease control strategies, but little is known about such dynamics in real primate networks. We combined social network analysis and a modeling approach to better understand transmission of a theoretical infectious agent in wild Japanese macaques, highly social animals which form extended but highly differentiated social networks. We collected focal data from adult females living on the islands of Koshima and Yakushima, Japan. Individual identities as well as grooming networks were included in a Markov graph-based simulation. In this model, the probability that an individual will transmit an infectious agent depends on the strength of its relationships with other group members. Similarly, its probability of being infected depends on its relationships with already infected group members. We correlated: (i) the percentage of subjects infected during a latency-constrained epidemic; (ii) the mean latency to complete transmission; (iii) the probability that an individual is infected first among all group members; and (iv) each individual's mean rank in the chain of transmission with different individual network centralities (eigenvector, strength, betweenness). Our results support the hypothesis that more central individuals transmit infections in a shorter amount of time and to more subjects but also become infected more quickly than less central individuals. However, we also observed that the spread of infectious agents on the Yakushima network did not always differ from expectations of spread on random networks. Generalizations about the importance of observed social networks in pathogen flow should thus be made with caution, since individual characteristics in some real world networks appear less relevant than

Is risk analysis scientific?

Science.gov (United States)

Hansson, Sven Ove; Aven, Terje

2014-07-01

This article discusses to what extent risk analysis is scientific in view of a set of commonly used definitions and criteria. We consider scientific knowledge to be characterized by its subject matter, its success in developing the best available knowledge in its fields of study, and the epistemic norms and values that guide scientific investigations. We proceed to assess the field of risk analysis according to these criteria. For this purpose, we use a model for risk analysis in which science is used as a base for decision making on risks, which covers the five elements evidence, knowledge base, broad risk evaluation, managerial review and judgment, and the decision; and that relates these elements to the domains experts and decisionmakers, and to the domains fact-based or value-based. We conclude that risk analysis is a scientific field of study, when understood as consisting primarily of (i) knowledge about risk-related phenomena, processes, events, etc., and (ii) concepts, theories, frameworks, approaches, principles, methods and models to understand, assess, characterize, communicate, and manage risk, in general and for specific applications (the instrumental part). © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Culture and landslide risk in the Central Andes of Bolivia and Peru

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nicholas Roberts

2009-06-01

Full Text Available Culture and its heritage play a major role in determining landslide risk in the Central Andes. Examples of some of these many possible influences are provided from natural and social science literature and from the author’s recent work in Bolivia. Landslide risk appears to have generally increased throughout the last millennium, due largely to anthropogenic modification of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and coping capacity. These changes result from both local and distant pressures and from contemporaneous and pervious cultural factors. Consequently, holistic examination of landslide risk necessitates consideration of culture and its heritage.

Environmental modeling and health risk analysis (ACTS/RISK)

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Aral, M. M

2010-01-01

... presents a review of the topics of exposure and health risk analysis. The Analytical Contaminant Transport Analysis System (ACTS) and Health RISK Analysis (RISK) software tools are an integral part of the book and provide computational platforms for all the models discussed herein. The most recent versions of these two softwa...

Data-driven risk identification in phase III clinical trials using central statistical monitoring

OpenAIRE

Timmermans, Catherine; Venet, David; Burzykowski, Tomasz

2016-01-01

Our interest lies in quality control for clinical trials, in the context of risk-based monitoring (RBM). We specifically study the use of central statistical monitoring (CSM) to support RBM. Under an RBM paradigm, we claim that CSM has a key role to play in identifying the "risks to the most critical data elements and processes" that will drive targeted oversight. In order to support this claim, we first see how to characterize the risks that may affect clinical trials. We then discuss how CS...

ProRisk : risk analysis instrument : developed for William properties

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Doorn, W.H.W.; Egeberg, Ingrid; Hendrickx, Kristoff; Kahramaner, Y.; Masseur, B.; Waijers, Koen; Weglicka, K.A.

2005-01-01

This report presents a Risk Analysis Instrument developed for William Properties. Based on the analysis, it appears that the practice of Risk Analysis exists within the organization, yet rather implicit. The Risk Analysis Instrument comes with a package of four components: an activity diagram, a

Central executive network in young people with familial risk for psychosis--the Oulu Brain and Mind Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Jukuri, Tuomas; Kiviniemi, Vesa; Nikkinen, Juha; Miettunen, Jouko; Mäki, Pirjo; Mukkala, Sari; Koivukangas, Jenni; Nordström, Tanja; Parkkisenniemi, Juha; Moilanen, Irma; Barnett, Jennifer H; Jones, Peter B; Murray, Graham K; Veijola, Juha

2015-02-01

The central executive network controls and manages high-level cognitive functions. Abnormal activation in the central executive network has been related to psychosis and schizophrenia but it is not established how this applies to people with familial risk for psychosis (FR). We conducted a resting-state functional MRI (R-fMRI) in 72 (29 males) young adults with a history of psychosis in one or both parents (FR) but without psychosis themselves, and 72 (29 males) similarly healthy control subjects without parental psychosis. Both groups in the Oulu Brain and Mind Study were drawn from the Northern Finland Birth Cohort 1986. Participants were 20-25years old. Parental psychosis was established using the Care Register for Health Care. R-fMRI data pre-processing was conducted using independent component analysis with 30 and 70 components. A dual regression technique was used to detect between-group differences in the central executive network with pcontrol subjects in the right inferior frontal gyrus, a key area of central executive network corresponding to Brodmann areas 44 and 45, known as Broca's area. The volume of the lower activation area with 30 components was 896mm(3) and with 70 components was 1151mm(3). The activity of the central executive network differed in the right inferior frontal gyrus between FR and control groups. This suggests that abnormality of the right inferior frontal gyrus may be a central part of vulnerability for psychosis. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Observations on risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thompson, W.A. Jr.

1979-11-01

This paper briefly describes WASH 1400 and the Lewis report. It attempts to define basic concepts such as risk and risk analysis, common mode failure, and rare event. Several probabilistic models which go beyond the WASH 1400 methodology are introduced; the common characteristic of these models is that they recognize explicitly that risk analysis is time dependent whereas WASH 1400 takes a per demand failure rate approach which obscures the important fact that accidents are time related. Further, the presentation of a realistic risk analysis should recognize that there are various risks which compete with one another for the lives of the individuals at risk. A way of doing this is suggested

Radiological risks of transports to central waste management facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lange, F.

1997-01-01

Transports of radioactive waste from nuclear facilities have been a matter of frequent public concern in the recent past. News reports, protests and questions concerning the radiological risk tended to concentrate on transports to and from central waste management facilities, e.g. transports of spent fuel elements to reprocessing plants abroad (France, England), transports to intermediate storage sites (Ahaus, Gorleben), transports to operative (Morsleben) and projected (Konrad) final storage sites, and transports of vitrified high-activity waste from reprocessing plants to the intermediate storage site (Gorleben). (orig.) [de

Spatial Analysis of Macro Economic in Central Java (PDRB Analysis in Year 1993-2003

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eddy Kiswanto

2016-12-01

Full Text Available This paper aims to study the spatial analysis macroeconomics condition in central Java from 1993-2001 base on PDRB analysis. Central Java stands in the last position in the economic in Central Java based on PDRB variable and economic growth is in the lowest category in the comparation with another provinces in Java. This is reason why Central Java is categorized as "LL" (Low low. One of the prime sectors in Central Java is small medium scale enterprises which is dominated 30% of national market, but since the economic crisis stroke in 1997 the manufacture sector, especially industry and processing had collapse. In 1996-1997, the level of manufacture growth increased to 14.4% but then decreased until minus 19.3%. This condition caused by bankruptcy to many of the industries. The poverty profile in Central Java from 1999-2003 is average 23.3% from the total population every years. Central Java stepping to number 2 in level of poverty absolute number 1. In poverty relativity level, Central Java became number 1 in Java from 2002-2003 with the level of poverty reached above the national average. This fact shows the unsuccessfully effort in reducing the poverty level.

Unsharpness-risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Preyssl, C.

1986-01-01

Safety analysis provides the only tool for evaluation and quantification of rare or hypothetical events leading to system failure. So far probability theory has been used for the fault- and event-tree methodology. The phenomenon of uncertainties constitutes an important aspect in risk analysis. Uncertainties can be classified as originating from 'randomness' or 'fuzziness'. Probability theory addresses randomness only. The use of 'fuzzy set theory' makes it possible to include both types of uncertainty in the mathematical model of risk analysis. Thus the 'fuzzy fault tree' is expressed in 'possibilistic' terms implying a range of simplifications and improvements. 'Human failure' and 'conditionality' can be treated correctly. Only minimum-maximum relations are used to combine the possibility distributions of events. Various event-classifications facilitate the interpretation of the results. The method is demonstrated by application to a TRIGA-research reactor. Uncertainty as an implicit part of 'fuzzy risk' can be quantified explicitly using an 'uncertainty measure'. Based on this the 'degree of relative compliance' with a quantizative safety goal can be defined for a particular risk. The introduction of 'weighting functionals' guarantees the consideration of the importances attached to different parts of the risk exceeding or complying with the standard. The comparison of two reference systems is demonstrated in a case study. It is concluded that any application of the 'fuzzy risk analysis' has to be free of any hypostatization when reducing subjective to objective information. (Author)

Birth weight and order as risk factors for childhood central nervous system tumors.

Science.gov (United States)

MacLean, Jane; Partap, Sonia; Reynolds, Peggy; Von Behren, Julie; Fisher, Paul Graham

2010-09-01

To determine whether birth characteristics related to maternal-fetal health in utero are associated with the development of childhood central nervous system tumors. We identified, from the California Cancer Registry, 3733 children under age 15 diagnosed with childhood central nervous system tumors between 1988 and 2006 and linked these cases to their California birth certificates. Four controls per case, matched on birth date and sex, were randomly selected from the same birth files. We evaluated associations of multiple childhood CNS tumor subtypes with birth weight and birth order. Low birth weight was associated with a reduced risk of low-grade gliomas (OR=0.67; 95% CI, 0.46 to 0.97) and high birth weight was associated with increased risk of high-grade gliomas (OR=1.57; 95% CI, 1.16 to 2.12). High birth order (fourth or higher) was associated with decreased risk of low-grade gliomas (OR=0.75; 95% CI, 0.56 to 0.99) and increased risk of high-grade gliomas (OR=1.32; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.72 for second order). Factors that drive growth in utero may increase the risk of low-grade gliomas. There may be a similar relationship in high-grade gliomas, although other factors, such as early infection, may modify this association. Additional investigation is warranted to validate and further define these findings. Copyright (c) 2010 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Debris flows risk analysis and direct loss estimation: the case study of Valtellina di Tirano, Italy

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Blahůt, Jan; Glade, T.; Sterlacchini, S.

2014-01-01

Roč. 11, č. 2 (2014), s. 288-307 ISSN 1672-6316 Institutional support: RVO:67985891 Keywords : Debris flows * Risk analysis * Economic losses * Central Alps * Italy Subject RIV: DE - Earth Magnetism, Geodesy, Geography OBOR OECD: Physical geography Impact factor: 0.963, year: 2014

RAMS (Risk Analysis - Modular System) methodology

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Stenner, R.D.; Strenge, D.L.; Buck, J.W. [and others

1996-10-01

The Risk Analysis - Modular System (RAMS) was developed to serve as a broad scope risk analysis tool for the Risk Assessment of the Hanford Mission (RAHM) studies. The RAHM element provides risk analysis support for Hanford Strategic Analysis and Mission Planning activities. The RAHM also provides risk analysis support for the Hanford 10-Year Plan development activities. The RAMS tool draws from a collection of specifically designed databases and modular risk analysis methodologies and models. RAMS is a flexible modular system that can be focused on targeted risk analysis needs. It is specifically designed to address risks associated with overall strategy, technical alternative, and `what if` questions regarding the Hanford cleanup mission. RAMS is set up to address both near-term and long-term risk issues. Consistency is very important for any comparative risk analysis, and RAMS is designed to efficiently and consistently compare risks and produce risk reduction estimates. There is a wide range of output information that can be generated by RAMS. These outputs can be detailed by individual contaminants, waste forms, transport pathways, exposure scenarios, individuals, populations, etc. However, they can also be in rolled-up form to support high-level strategy decisions.

Space-Time Analysis to Identify Areas at Risk of Mortality from Cardiovascular Disease

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Poliany C. O. Rodrigues

2015-01-01

Full Text Available This study aimed at identifying areas that were at risk of mortality due to cardiovascular disease in residents aged 45 years or older of the cities of Cuiabá and Várzea Grande between 2009 and 2011. We conducted an ecological study of mortality rates related to cardiovascular disease. Mortality rates were calculated for each census tract by the Local Empirical Bayes estimator. High- and low-risk clusters were identified by retrospective space-time scans for each year using the Poisson probability model. We defined the year and month as the temporal analysis unit and the census tracts as the spatial analysis units adjusted by age and sex. The Mann-Whitney U test was used to compare the socioeconomic and environmental variables by risk classification. High-risk clusters showed higher income ratios than low-risk clusters, as did temperature range and atmospheric particulate matter. Low-risk clusters showed higher humidity than high-risk clusters. The Eastern region of Várzea Grande and the central region of Cuiabá were identified as areas at risk of mortality due to cardiovascular disease in individuals aged 45 years or older. High mortality risk was associated with socioeconomic and environmental factors. More high-risk clusters were observed at the end of the dry season.

Risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baron, J.H.; Nunez McLeod, J.; Rivera, S.S.

1997-01-01

This book contains a selection of research works performed in the CEDIAC Institute (Cuyo National University) in the area of Risk Analysis, with specific orientations to the subjects of uncertainty and sensitivity studies, software reliability, severe accident modeling, etc. This volume presents important material for all those researches who want to have an insight in the risk analysis field, as a tool to solution several problems frequently found in the engineering and applied sciences field, as well as for the academic teachers who want to keep up to date, including the new developments and improvements continuously arising in this field [es

Central Obesity and H. pylori Infection Influence Risk of Barrett's Esophagus in an Asian Population.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chih-Cheng Chen

Full Text Available The prevalence rates of Barrett's esophagus (BE in western countries are higher than Asian ones, but little is known about their difference among risk factors of BE. The aim of this study is to investigate the associations of various risk factors including central obesity, body mass index (BMI, metabolic syndrome and H. pylori infection, with BE.A total of 161 subjects with BE were enrolled and compared to age- and gender-matched controls randomly sampled (1:4 from check-up center in same hospital. Central obesity was defined by waist circumference (female>80cm; male>90cm, metabolic syndrome by the modified National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III criteria in Taiwan. Independent risk factors for BE were identified by multiple logistic regression analyses.The mean age for BE was 53.8±13.7 years and 75.8% was male. H. pylori infection status was detected by the rapid urease test with the prevalence of 28.4% and 44.4% in the BE patients and controls, respectively. The univariate logistic regression analyses showed the risk was associated with higher waist circumference (odds ratio [OR], 2.53; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.78-3.60, metabolic syndrome (OR, 2.02; 95% CI, 1.38-2.96 and negative H. pylori infection (OR, 0.50; 95% CI, 0.34-0.74. However, multivariate logistic regression analyses revealed that BE associated with higher waist circumference (adjusted OR, 2.79; 95% CI, 1.89-4.12 and negative H. pylori infection (adjusted OR, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.30-0.70.Central obesity is associated with a higher risk of BE whereas H. pylori infection with a lower risk in an ethnic Chinese population.

Yellow fever risk assessment in the Central African Republic.

Science.gov (United States)

Ramos Junior, Alberto Novaes; Heukelbach, Jorg

2015-04-01

Yellow fever still causes high burden in several areas of sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America. There are few well-designed epidemiological studies and limited data about yellow fever in Africa. Staples et al., in a recently published paper in Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine & Hygiene, performed a nationwide study in the Central African Republic (CAR) assessing infection risk and the operational impact of preventive measures. The rapid assessment of human, non-human and mosquito data call attention to the potential risk of future yellow fever outbreaks in the CAR and elsewhere. The study reinforces the need for intensified applied and operational research to address problems and human capacity needs in the realm of neglected tropical diseases in the post-2015 agenda. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS BETWEEN CENTRALIZED AND STATE-WISE TOURISM CAMPAIGNS IN INDIA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sunaina AHUJA

2012-06-01

Full Text Available The purpose is to distinguish the initiatives taken by the state authorities and Central authorities to promote tourism in India. Gaps in the centralized promotional campaign, "Incredible India" are identified in this study. The methodology includes collection of secondary data and discursive analysis. Information relevance, Promotion strategy, and Key events and places were used for the comparative analysis for the purposes of the research paper. Above mentioned three factors need to be added to the centralized campaign, to give a holistic picture of India. The paper is unique as it is the first time that identification of gaps in the centralized campaign is done.

Improving Flood Risk Management for California's Central Valley: How the State Developed a Toolbox for Large, System-wide Studies

Science.gov (United States)

Pingel, N.; Liang, Y.; Bindra, A.

2016-12-01

More than 1 million Californians live and work in the floodplains of the Sacramento-San Joaquin Valley where flood risks are among the highest in the nation. In response to this threat to people, property and the environment, the Department of Water Resources (DWR) has been called to action to improve flood risk management. This has transpired through significant advances in development of flood information and tools, analysis, and planning. Senate Bill 5 directed DWR to prepare the Central Valley Flood Protection Plan (CVFPP) and update it every 5 years. A key component of this aggressive planning approach is answering the question: What is the current flood risk, and how would proposed improvements change flood risk throughout the system? Answering this question is a substantial challenge due to the size and complexity of the watershed and flood control system. The watershed is roughly 42,000 sq mi, and flows are controlled by numerous reservoirs, bypasses, and levees. To overcome this challenge, the State invested in development of a comprehensive analysis "tool box" through various DWR programs. Development of the tool box included: collection of hydro-meteorological, topographic, geotechnical, and economic data; development of rainfall-runoff, reservoir operation, hydraulic routing, and flood risk analysis models; and development of specialized applications and computing schemes to accelerate the analysis. With this toolbox, DWR is analyzing flood hazard, flood control system performance, exposure and vulnerability of people and property to flooding, consequence of flooding for specific events, and finally flood risk for a range of CVFPP alternatives. Based on the results, DWR will put forward a State Recommended Plan in the 2017 CVFPP. Further, the value of the analysis tool box extends beyond the CVFPP. It will serve as a foundation for other flood studies for years to come and has already been successfully applied for inundation mapping to support emergency

A background risk analysis. Vol. 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Taylor, J.R.

1979-01-01

This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles, and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques, described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justification or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appendix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 1 contains a short history of risk analysis, and chapters on risk, failures, errors and accidents, and general procedures for risk analysis. (BP)

International Conference on Risk Analysis

CERN Document Server

Oliveira, Teresa; Rigas, Alexandros; Gulati, Sneh

2015-01-01

This book covers the latest results in the field of risk analysis. Presented topics include probabilistic models in cancer research, models and methods in longevity, epidemiology of cancer risk, engineering reliability and economical risk problems. The contributions of this volume originate from the 5th International Conference on Risk Analysis (ICRA 5). The conference brought together researchers and practitioners working in the field of risk analysis in order to present new theoretical and computational methods with applications in biology, environmental sciences, public health, economics and finance.

Systems-level analysis of risk genes reveals the modular nature of schizophrenia.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Jiewei; Li, Ming; Luo, Xiong-Jian; Su, Bing

2018-05-19

Schizophrenia (SCZ) is a complex mental disorder with high heritability. Genetic studies (especially recent genome-wide association studies) have identified many risk genes for schizophrenia. However, the physical interactions among the proteins encoded by schizophrenia risk genes remain elusive and it is not known whether the identified risk genes converge on common molecular networks or pathways. Here we systematically investigated the network characteristics of schizophrenia risk genes using the high-confidence protein-protein interactions (PPI) from the human interactome. We found that schizophrenia risk genes encode a densely interconnected PPI network (P = 4.15 × 10 -31 ). Compared with the background genes, the schizophrenia risk genes in the interactome have significantly higher degree (P = 5.39 × 10 -11 ), closeness centrality (P = 7.56 × 10 -11 ), betweeness centrality (P = 1.29 × 10 -11 ), clustering coefficient (P = 2.22 × 10 -2 ), and shorter average shortest path length (P = 7.56 × 10 -11 ). Based on the densely interconnected PPI network, we identified 48 hub genes and 4 modules formed by highly interconnected schizophrenia genes. We showed that the proteins encoded by schizophrenia hub genes have significantly more direct physical interactions. Gene ontology (GO) analysis revealed that cell adhesion, cell cycle, immune system response, and GABR-receptor complex categories were enriched in the modules formed by highly interconnected schizophrenia risk genes. Our study reveals that schizophrenia risk genes encode a densely interconnected molecular network and demonstrates the modular nature of schizophrenia. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Centrality as a Method for the Evaluation of Semantic Resources for Disaster Risk Reduction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Otakar Čerba

2017-08-01

Full Text Available Clear and straightforward communication is a key aspect of all human activities related to crisis management. Since crisis management activities involve professionals from various disciplines using different terminology, clear and straightforward communication is difficult to achieve. Semantics as a broad science can help to overcome communication difficulties. This research focuses on the evaluation of available semantic resources including ontologies, thesauri, and controlled vocabularies for disaster risk reduction as part of crisis management. The main idea of the study is that the most appropriate source of broadly understandable terminology is such a semantic resource, which is accepted by—or at least connected to the majority of other resources. Important is not only the number of interconnected resources, but also the concrete position of the resource in the complex network of Linked Data resources. Although this is usually done by user experience, objective methods of resource semantic centrality can be applied. This can be described by centrality methods used mainly in graph theory. This article describes the calculation of four types of centrality methods (Outdegree, Indegree, Closeness, and Betweenness applied to 160 geographic concepts published as Linked Data and related to disaster risk reduction. Centralities were calculated for graph structures containing particular semantic resources as nodes and identity links as edges. The results show that (with some discussed exceptions the datasets with high values of centrality serve as important information resources, but they also include more concepts from preselected 160 geographic concepts. Therefore, they could be considered as the most suitable resources of terminology to make communication in the domain easier. The main research goal is to automate the semantic resources evaluation and to apply a well-known theoretical method (centrality to the semantic issues of Linked Data. It

Risk analysis: opening the process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hubert, Ph.; Mays, C.

1998-01-01

This conference on risk analysis took place in Paris, 11-14 october 1999. Over 200 paper where presented in the seven following sessions: perception; environment and health; persuasive risks; objects and products; personal and collective involvement; assessment and valuation; management. A rational approach to risk analysis has been developed in the three last decades. Techniques for risk assessment have been thoroughly enhanced, risk management approaches have been developed, decision making processes have been clarified, the social dimensions of risk perception and management have been investigated. Nevertheless this construction is being challenged by recent events which reveal how deficits in stakeholder involvement, openness and democratic procedures can undermine risk management actions. Indeed, the global process most components of risk analysis may be radically called into question. Food safety has lately been a prominent issue, but now debates appear, or old debates are revisited in the domains of public health, consumer products safety, waste management, environmental risks, nuclear installations, automobile safety and pollution. To meet the growing pressures for efficiency, openness, accountability, and multi-partner communication in risk analysis, institutional changes are underway in many European countries. However, the need for stakeholders to develop better insight into the process may lead to an evolution of all the components of risks analysis, even in its most (technical' steps. For stakeholders of different professional background, political projects, and responsibilities, risk identification procedures must be rendered understandable, quantitative risk assessment must be intelligible and accommodated in action proposals, ranging from countermeasures to educational programs to insurance mechanisms. Management formats must be open to local and political input and other types of operational feedback. (authors)

Regulating food law : risk analysis and the precautionary principle as general principles of EU food law

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Szajkowska, A.

2012-01-01

In food law scientific evidence occupies a central position. This study offers a legal insight into risk analysis and the precautionary principle, positioned in the EU as general principles applicable to all food safety measures, both national and EU. It develops a new method of looking at these

Prevalence of maternal near miss and community-based risk factors in Central Uganda.

Science.gov (United States)

Nansubuga, Elizabeth; Ayiga, Natal; Moyer, Cheryl A

2016-11-01

To examine the prevalence of maternal near-miss (MNM) and its associated risk factors in a community setting in Central Uganda. A cross-sectional research design employing multi-stage sampling collected data from women aged 15-49 years in Rakai, Uganda, who had been pregnant in the 3years preceding the survey, conducted between August 10 and December 31, 2013. Additionally, in-depth interviews were conducted. WHO-based disease and management criteria were used to identify MNM. Binary logistic regression was used to predict MNM risk factors. Content analysis was performed for qualitative data. Survey data were collected from 1557 women and 40 in-depth interviews were conducted. The MNM prevalence was 287.7 per 1000 pregnancies; the majority of MNMs resulted from hemorrhage. Unwanted pregnancies, a history of MNM, primipara, pregnancy danger signs, Banyakore ethnicity, and a partner who had completed primary education only were associated with increased odds of MNM (all Pstudies employing organ-failure MNM-diagnostic criteria. These findings illustrate the need to look beyond mortality statistics when assessing maternal health outcomes. Concerted efforts to increase supervised deliveries, access to emergency obstetric care, and access to contraceptives are warranted. Copyright © 2016 International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Adversarial risk analysis

CERN Document Server

Banks, David L; Rios Insua, David

2015-01-01

Flexible Models to Analyze Opponent Behavior A relatively new area of research, adversarial risk analysis (ARA) informs decision making when there are intelligent opponents and uncertain outcomes. Adversarial Risk Analysis develops methods for allocating defensive or offensive resources against intelligent adversaries. Many examples throughout illustrate the application of the ARA approach to a variety of games and strategic situations. The book shows decision makers how to build Bayesian models for the strategic calculation of their opponents, enabling decision makers to maximize their expected utility or minimize their expected loss. This new approach to risk analysis asserts that analysts should use Bayesian thinking to describe their beliefs about an opponent's goals, resources, optimism, and type of strategic calculation, such as minimax and level-k thinking. Within that framework, analysts then solve the problem from the perspective of the opponent while placing subjective probability distributions on a...

Risk factors for development of complication following peripherally inserted central

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hakan Aydın

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Objectives: Peripherally inserted central venous catheters (PICCs are inserted into central veins through the upper extremity veins. In this retrospective study, we aimed to evaluate PICC procedures, related complications, their causes and factors influencing the success of the procedure during anaesthesia Methods: ‘Central Venous Catheterization Forms’ filled out for 850 patients in whom a PICC was inserted by residents during general anaesthesia between November 2009 and March 2013 in the operating room of Uludag University Medical Faculty Hospital were retrospectively analysed. Results: A total of 1174 procedures were evaluated. The most preferred vein for the first attempt was the right basilic vein (32.7%. Difficulty (more than two attempts with the PICC procedure was correlated with the patient’s age (p30 kg/m² (p<0.05, resident with less than 4 years of training (p=0.001, number of PICC attempts ≥2 (p<0.001, more than one resident involved in the catheterization procedure (p<0.001 and previous failed PICC procedures (p<0.001. Conclusion: We conclude that catheterization should be performed under the surveillance of a staff keeping in mind the risks of complications. In the case of failure following 2 attempts, the procedure should be handed over to a more experienced staff member. J Clin Exp Invest 2014; 5 (1: 29-35

Risk Mapping and Situational Analysis of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in an Endemic Area of Central Iran: A GIS-Based Survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Abedi-Astaneh, Fatemeh; Hajjaran, Homa; Yaghoobi-Ershadi, Mohammad Reza; Hanafi-Bojd, Ahmad Ali; Mohebali, Mehdi; Shirzadi, Mohammad Reza; Rassi, Yavar; Akhavan, Amir Ahmad; Mahmoudi, Bagher

2016-01-01

Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is among the top 10 infectious disease priorities in the world, and the leading cause of morbidity in Iran. The present study was conducted to assess the risk of CL, and to determine some epidemiological features of the disease in endemic areas of Qom Province in Central Iran during 2009 to 2013. Data regarding human cases of the disease were obtained from the Qom Province Health Center, prepared and stored in a spatial database created in ArcGIS10.3. A total of 9 out of 212 Leishmania spp. positive slides taken in 2013 from patients residing in Qom city were examined using molecular methods and the species of Leishmania was identified by PCR-RFLP. Those 9 patients had no history of travel outside the city. Spatial analysis and clustering methods were applied to find major hot spots and susceptible areas for the establishment of novel foci of the disease. Transmission patterns were examined for spatial autocorrelation using the Moran's I statistical application, and for the clustering of high or low values using the Getis-Ord Gi* statistics. During the period of study, a total of 1767 CL cases were passively reported in the area, out of which were 65% males and 35% females. The highest and lowest numbers of cases were reported in 2010 and 2013, respectively. Importantly, 979 cases were reported from urban areas, while the remainder came from rural areas. Leishmania major was detected as the causative agent of CL in the city of Qom. Remarkably, most patients recorded in Qom city were associated with a history of travel to the endemic areas of CL within the province, or to other endemic areas of the disease in Iran. Spatial distribution of CL cases revealed northeastern and southwestern quarters of the city were the major hot spots of the disease (P<0.05). Hot spot and CL transmission risk analysis across the province indicated that more than 40 villages were located in high and very high risk areas of CL transmission. Due to the

Uniformity testing: assessment of a centralized web-based uniformity analysis system.

Science.gov (United States)

Klempa, Meaghan C

2011-06-01

Uniformity testing is performed daily to ensure adequate camera performance before clinical use. The aim of this study is to assess the reliability of Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center's locally built, centralized, Web-based uniformity analysis system by examining the differences between manufacturer and Web-based National Electrical Manufacturers Association integral uniformity calculations measured in the useful field of view (FOV) and the central FOV. Manufacturer and Web-based integral uniformity calculations measured in the useful FOV and the central FOV were recorded over a 30-d period for 4 cameras from 3 different manufacturers. These data were then statistically analyzed. The differences between the uniformity calculations were computed, in addition to the means and the SDs of these differences for each head of each camera. There was a correlation between the manufacturer and Web-based integral uniformity calculations in the useful FOV and the central FOV over the 30-d period. The average differences between the manufacturer and Web-based useful FOV calculations ranged from -0.30 to 0.099, with SD ranging from 0.092 to 0.32. For the central FOV calculations, the average differences ranged from -0.163 to 0.055, with SD ranging from 0.074 to 0.24. Most of the uniformity calculations computed by this centralized Web-based uniformity analysis system are comparable to the manufacturers' calculations, suggesting that this system is reasonably reliable and effective. This finding is important because centralized Web-based uniformity analysis systems are advantageous in that they test camera performance in the same manner regardless of the manufacturer.

Assessing patient risk of central line-associated bacteremia via machine learning.

Science.gov (United States)

Beeler, Cole; Dbeibo, Lana; Kelley, Kristen; Thatcher, Levi; Webb, Douglas; Bah, Amadou; Monahan, Patrick; Fowler, Nicole R; Nicol, Spencer; Judy-Malcolm, Alisa; Azar, Jose

2018-04-13

Central line-associated bloodstream infections (CLABSIs) contribute to increased morbidity, length of hospital stay, and cost. Despite progress in understanding the risk factors, there remains a need to accurately predict the risk of CLABSIs and, in real time, prevent them from occurring. A predictive model was developed using retrospective data from a large academic healthcare system. Models were developed with machine learning via construction of random forests using validated input variables. Fifteen variables accounted for the most significant effect on CLABSI prediction based on a retrospective study of 70,218 unique patient encounters between January 1, 2013, and May 31, 2016. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the best-performing model was 0.82 in production. This model has multiple applications for resource allocation for CLABSI prevention, including serving as a tool to target patients at highest risk for potentially cost-effective but otherwise time-limited interventions. Machine learning can be used to develop accurate models to predict the risk of CLABSI in real time prior to the development of infection. Copyright © 2018 Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mapping the geogenic radon potential: methodology and spatial analysis for central Hungary

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Szabó, Katalin Zsuzsanna; Jordan, Gyozo; Horváth, Ákos; Szabó, Csaba

2014-01-01

A detailed geogenic radon potential (GRP) mapping based on field soil gas radon and soil gas permeability measurements was carried out in this study. A conventional continuous variable approach was used in this study for GRP determination and to test its applicability to the selected area of Hungary. Spatial pattern of soil gas radon concentration, soil permeability and GRP and the relationship between geological formations and these parameters were studied by performing detailed spatial analysis. Exploratory data analysis revealed that higher soil gas radon activity concentration and GRP characterizes the mountains and hills than the plains. The highest values were found in the proluvial–deluvial sediments, rock debris on the downhill slopes eroded from hills. Among the Quaternary sediments, which characterize the study area, the fluvial sediment has the highest values, which are also located in the hilly areas. The lowest values were found in the plain areas covered by drift sand, fluvioeolic sand, fluvial sand and loess. As a conclusion, radon is related to the sediment cycle in the study area. A geogenic radon risk map was created, which assists human health risk assessment and risk reduction since it indicates the potential of the source of indoor radon. The map shows that low and medium geogenic radon potential characterizes the study area in central Hungary. High risk occurs only locally. The results reveal that Quaternary sediments are inhomogeneous from a radon point of view, fluvial sediment has medium GRP, whereas the other rock formations such as drift sand, fluioeolic sand, fluvial sand and loess, found in the study area, have low GRP. - Highlights: • First geogenic radon potential map in Hungary. • Low and medium GRP characterizes the study area (Middle Hungary). • Mainly quaternary sediments characterizes the study area. • Radon is related to the erosion and deposition of the sediment cycle

Risk factor screening to identify women requiring oral glucose tolerance testing to diagnose gestational diabetes: A systematic review and meta-analysis and analysis of two pregnancy cohorts.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Diane Farrar

Full Text Available Easily identifiable risk factors including: obesity and ethnicity at high risk of diabetes are commonly used to indicate which women should be offered the oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT to diagnose gestational diabetes (GDM. Evidence regarding these risk factors is limited however. We conducted a systematic review (SR and meta-analysis and individual participant data (IPD analysis to evaluate the performance of risk factors in identifying women with GDM.We searched MEDLINE, Medline in Process, Embase, Maternity and Infant Care and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL up to August 2016 and conducted additional reference checking. We included observational, cohort, case-control and cross-sectional studies reporting the performance characteristics of risk factors used to identify women at high risk of GDM. We had access to IPD from the Born in Bradford and Atlantic Diabetes in Pregnancy cohorts, all pregnant women in the two cohorts with data on risk factors and OGTT results were included.Twenty nine published studies with 211,698 women for the SR and a further 14,103 women from two birth cohorts (Born in Bradford and the Atlantic Diabetes in Pregnancy study for the IPD analysis were included. Six studies assessed the screening performance of guidelines; six examined combinations of risk factors; eight evaluated the number of risk factors and nine examined prediction models or scores. Meta-analysis using data from published studies suggests that irrespective of the method used, risk factors do not identify women with GDM well. Using IPD and combining risk factors to produce the highest sensitivities, results in low specificities (and so higher false positives. Strategies that use the risk factors of age (>25 or >30 and BMI (>25 or 30 perform as well as other strategies with additional risk factors included.Risk factor screening methods are poor predictors of which pregnant women will be diagnosed with GDM. A simple

A background to risk analysis. Vol. 3

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Taylor, J.R.

1979-01-01

This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles, and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justifi- cation or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appenix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 3 contains chapters on quantification of risk, failure and accident probability, risk analysis and design, and examles of risk analysis for process plant. (BP)

Integrated risk analysis of global climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shlyakhter, Alexander; Wilson, Richard; Valverde A, L.J. Jr.

1995-01-01

This paper discusses several factors that should be considered in integrated risk analyses of global climate change. We begin by describing how the problem of global climate change can be subdivided into largely independent parts that can be linked together in an analytically tractable fashion. Uncertainty plays a central role in integrated risk analyses of global climate change. Accordingly, we consider various aspects of uncertainty as they relate to the climate change problem. We also consider the impacts of these uncertainties on various risk management issues, such as sequential decision strategies, value of information, and problems of interregional and intergenerational equity. (author)

Risk factors for central venous catheter-related infections in a neonatal population – systematic review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Viviane Rosado

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Objective: This was a systematic review of the incidence density and risk factors for central venous catheter-related infections in a neonatal population. Data source: The MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane, BDENF, SciELO, and LILACS databases were used without date or language restriction. Studies that analyzed risk factors for bloodstream infections in newborns were identified. Data synthesis: A total of 134 articles were found that met the eligibility criteria. Of these articles, 14 were selected that addressed risk factors for central venous catheter-related infection in neonates. Catheter-related bloodstream infections remain an important complication, as shown by the incidence rates reported in the studies included in this review. The observed risk factors indicate that low birth weight, prematurity, and longer catheter permanence are related to a higher incidence of bloodstream infections. It has been observed that low rates of catheter-related infections, i.e., close to zero, are already a reality in health institutions in developed countries, since they use infection surveillance and control programs. Conclusion: Catheter-related bloodstream infections still show high incidence density rates in developing countries. The authors emphasize the need for further longitudinal studies and the need for better strategies to prevent risk factors, aiming at the reduction of catheter-related infections. Resumo: Objetivo: Trata-se de uma revisão sistemática sobre a densidade de incidência e de fatores de risco para infecção associada a cateter venoso central em população neonatal. Fontes dos dados: Utilizou-se os bancos de dados Medline, Embase, Cochrane, Bdenf, Scielo, Lilacs, sem restrição de data ou de idioma. Identificaram-se os estudos que analisaram fatores de risco para infecção da corrente sanguínea em recém-nascidos. Síntese dos dados: Foram encontrados 134 artigos conforme os critérios de elegibilidade. Destes artigos, foram

Predicting climate change extirpation risk for central and southern Appalachian forest tree species

Science.gov (United States)

Kevin M. Potter; William W. Hargrove; Frank H. Koch

2010-01-01

Climate change will likely pose a severe threat to the viability of certain forest tree species, which will be forced either to adapt to new conditions or to shift to more favorable environments if they are to survive. Several forest tree species of the central and southern Appalachians may be at particular risk, since they occur in limited high-elevation ranges and/or...

[Infestation status Aedes albopictus and related mosquito-borne infectious disease risk in central urban area in Shanghai].

Science.gov (United States)

Gao, Q; Xiong, C L; Zhou, Y B; Cao, H; Jiang, Q W

2016-05-01

To evaluate Aedes albopictus infestation status in the central urban area of Shanghai, and analyze the related epidemic risk of mosquito-borne infectious disease. Consecutive mosquito surveillance was conducted in the green lands and residential areas in the central urban area of Shanghai during 2012-2014, the Aedes albopictus density and its seasonal fluctuation were observed; the sequence of Aedes albopictus in Shanghai was aligned with that in other epidemic area abroad, and the susceptibility of Aedes albopictus to mosquito-borne virus and endemic risk were analyzed. No Aedes aegypti was found in the central urban area of Shanghai. As predominant species in both the residential area and the green lands, the proportion of Aedes albopictus in the residential area was significantly higher than that in the green lands(78.53% vs. 19.99%, χ(2) =15 525.168, PAedes albopictus in Shanghai and Aedes albopictus in Africa was quite far. No Aedes aegypti was found in Shanghai and its surrounding areas, while Aedes albopictus infestation in the central urban area of Shanghai was serious. Strict measures should be taken to reduce the Aedes albopictus density for the effective control Zika virus spread.

Gender roles and perceptions of malaria risk in agricultural communities of Mwea Division in Central Kenya.

Science.gov (United States)

Woldu, Dawit Okubatsion; Haile, Zelalem Teka

2015-01-01

We examined gender differences in the perception of high malaria risk in women and factors associated with a high number of malaria episodes in the Mwea Division of Central Kenya. Ethnographic and successive free listing interviews (an open-ended data collection technique used to show the relation of items in a given domain) with 53 key informants and structured interviews conducted from June to October 2010 with 250 respondents who represented the socioeconomic and geographical diversity of the area were analyzed. Qualitative text analysis and inferential statistics were employed. While a greater proportion of men (51.6%) attributed women's high malaria risk to their "biological weakness," most women believed that their high malaria risk was related to their role in the agricultural fields (43.6%) and to their household responsibilities (23.1%). Compared to men, women were more likely to work in wet aspects of agricultural activities (χ(2) (2, N = 153) = 13.47, p gender roles in agricultural communities in Mwea may play an important role in explaining disparity in reported malaria incidence. While identification of ecological and economic determinants of malaria is important, gender-based research can make a significant contribution to the development of effective and sustainable malaria reduction strategies.

Environmental risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lima-e-Silva, Pedro Paulo de

1996-01-01

The conventional Risk Analysis (RA) relates usually a certain undesired event frequency with its consequences. Such technique is used nowadays in Brazil to analyze accidents and their consequences strictly under the human approach, valuing loss of human equipment, human structures and human lives, without considering the damage caused to natural resources that keep life possible on Earth. This paradigm was developed primarily because of the Homo sapiens' lack of perception upon the natural web needed to sustain his own life. In reality, the Brazilian professionals responsible today for licensing, auditing and inspecting environmental aspects of human activities face huge difficulties in making technical specifications and procedures leading to acceptable levels of impact, furthermore considering the intrinsic difficulties to define those levels. Therefore, in Brazil the RA technique is a weak tool for licensing for many reasons, and of them are its short scope (only accident considerations) and wrong a paradigm (only human direct damages). A paper from the author about the former was already proposed to the 7th International Conference on Environmetrics, past July'96, USP-SP. This one discusses the extension of the risk analysis concept to take into account environmental consequences, transforming the conventional analysis into a broader methodology named here as Environmental Risk Analysis. (author)

Risk of neuropsychiatric adverse events associated with varenicline: systematic review and meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Thomas, Kyla H; Martin, Richard M; Knipe, Duleeka W; Higgins, Julian P T; Gunnell, David

2015-03-12

To determine the risk of neuropsychiatric adverse events associated with use of varenicline compared with placebo in randomised controlled trials. Systematic review and meta-analysis comparing study effects using two summary estimates in fixed effects models, risk differences, and Peto odds ratios. Medline, Embase, PsycINFO, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), and clinicaltrials.gov. Randomised controlled trials with a placebo comparison group that reported on neuropsychiatric adverse events (depression, suicidal ideation, suicide attempt, suicide, insomnia, sleep disorders, abnormal dreams, somnolence, fatigue, anxiety) and death. Studies that did not involve human participants, did not use the maximum recommended dose of varenicline (1 mg twice daily), and were cross over trials were excluded. In the 39 randomised controlled trials (10,761 participants), there was no evidence of an increased risk of suicide or attempted suicide (odds ratio 1.67, 95% confidence interval 0.33 to 8.57), suicidal ideation (0.58, 0.28 to 1.20), depression (0.96, 0.75 to 1.22), irritability (0.98, 0.81 to 1.17), aggression (0.91, 0.52 to 1.59), or death (1.05, 0.47 to 2.38) in the varenicline users compared with placebo users. Varenicline was associated with an increased risk of sleep disorders (1.63, 1.29 to 2.07), insomnia (1.56, 1.36 to 1.78), abnormal dreams (2.38, 2.05 to 2.77), and fatigue (1.28, 1.06 to 1.55) but a reduced risk of anxiety (0.75, 0.61 to 0.93). Similar findings were observed when risk differences were reported. There was no evidence for a variation in depression and suicidal ideation by age group, sex, ethnicity, smoking status, presence or absence of psychiatric illness, and type of study sponsor (that is, pharmaceutical industry or other). This meta-analysis found no evidence of an increased risk of suicide or attempted suicide, suicidal ideation, depression, or death with varenicline. These findings provide some reassurance for users

Central venous catheter-related thrombosis in senile male patients: New risk factors and predictors.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Gao; Fu, Zhi-Qing; Zhu, Ping; Li, Shi-Jun

2015-06-01

Central venous catheterization (CVC)-related venous thrombosis is a common but serious clinical complication, thus prevention and treatment on this problem should be extensively investigated. In this research, we aimed to investigate the incidence rate of CVC-related venous thrombosis in senile patients and give a further discussion on the related risk factors and predictors. A total of 324 hospitalized senile male patients subjected to CVC were selected. Retrospective investigation and analysis were conducted on age, underlying diseases, clinical medications, catheterization position and side, catheter retention time, and incidence of CVC-related venous thrombosis complications. Basic laboratory test results during catheterization and thrombogenesis were also collected and analyzed. Among the 324 patients, 20 cases (6.17%) of CVC-related venous thrombosis were diagnoseds. The incidence rate of CVC-related venous thrombosis in subclavian vein catheterization was significantly lower than that in femoral vein catheterization (Pcatheterization (Pcatheterization and internal jugular vein catheterization (Pvenous thrombosis history (Pvenous thrombosis in senile male patients. Subclavian vein catheterization was the most appropriate choice among senile patients to decrease the incidence of CVC-related venous thrombosis. Previous venous thrombosis history, high lactate dehydrogenase level, low HDL level, and low albumin level were important risk factors in predicting CVC-related venous thrombosis.

Springtime Flood Risk Reduction in Rural Arctic: A Comparative Study of Interior Alaska, United States and Central Yakutia, Russia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yekaterina Y. Kontar

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Every spring, riverine communities throughout the Arctic face flood risk. As the river ice begins to thaw and break up, ice jams—accumulation of chunks and sheets of ice in the river channel, force melt water and ice floes to back up for dozens of kilometers and flood vulnerable communities upstream. Via a comparative analysis between two flood-prone communities in Alaska and Yakutia (Siberia, this study examines key components of flood risk—hazards, exposure, and vulnerability, and existing practices in flood risk reduction in rural Arctic. The research sites are two rural communities—Galena (Yukon River and Edeytsy (Lena River, which sustained major ice-jam floods in May 2013. The data was acquired through a combination of direct observations on site, review of documents and archives, focus group discussions, and surveys. Five focus groups with US and Russian representatives from disaster management agencies revealed a few similar patterns as well as significant differences in flood risk reduction strategies. The main differences included higher reliance on mechanical and short-term ice jam and flood mitigation efforts (e.g., ice-jam demolition in the Russian Arctic, and lack of a centralized flood management model in the US. Surveys conducted among population at risk during the site visits to Edeytsy (November 2015 and Galena (March 2016 revealed higher satisfaction levels with the existing flood risk reduction efforts among Edeytsy residents. Survey respondents in Galena indicated the lack of ice jam removal and other flood prevention measures as the key drawback in the existing flood management. Historical analysis, conducted via the disaster Pressure and Release (PAR model, revealed that springtime flood risk in both regions results from complex interactions among a series of natural processes that generate conditions of hazard, and human actions that generate conditions of communities’ exposure and vulnerability. The analysis

Component of the risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martinez, I.; Campon, G.

2013-01-01

The power point presentation reviews issues like analysis of risk (Codex), management risk, preliminary activities manager, relationship between government and industries, microbiological danger and communication of risk

Properly pricing country risk: a model for pricing long-term fundamental risk applied to central and eastern European countries

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Debora Revoltella

2010-09-01

Full Text Available The private sector has used proxies such as sovereign credit ratings, spreads on sovereign bonds and spreads on sovereign credit default swaps (CDS to gauge country risk, even though these measures are pricing the risk of default of government bonds, which is different from the risks facing private participants in cross-border financing. Under normal market conditions, the CDS spreads are a very useful source of information on country risk. However, the recent crisis has shown that the CDS spreads might lead to some underpricing or overpricing of fundamentals in the case of excessively low or excessively high risk aversion. In this paper we develop an alternative measure of country risk that extracts the volatile, short-term market sentiment component from the sover eign CDS spread in order to improve its reliability in periods of market distress. We show that adverse market sentiment was a key driver of the sharp increase in sovereign CDS spreads of central and eastern European (CEE countries during the most severe phase of the crisis. We also show that our measure of country risk sheds some light on the observed stability of cross-border bank flows to CEE banks during the crisis.

Credit Risk Evaluation : Modeling - Analysis - Management

OpenAIRE

Wehrspohn, Uwe

2002-01-01

An analysis and further development of the building blocks of modern credit risk management: -Definitions of default -Estimation of default probabilities -Exposures -Recovery Rates -Pricing -Concepts of portfolio dependence -Time horizons for risk calculations -Quantification of portfolio risk -Estimation of risk measures -Portfolio analysis and portfolio improvement -Evaluation and comparison of credit risk models -Analytic portfolio loss distributions The thesis contributes to the evaluatio...

Risk Factors for Post-stroke Depression: A Meta-analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yu Shi

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Background: Stroke not only impacts patients physically but also economically. Post-stroke depression (PSD, as a common complication of stroke, always obstructs the process of stroke rehabilitation. Accordingly, defining the risk factors associated with PSD has extraordinary importance. Although there have been many studies investigating the risk factors for PSD, the results are inconsistent.Objectives: The objectives of this study were to identify the risk factors for PSD by evidence-based medicine.Data sources: A systematic and comprehensive database search was performed of PubMed, Medline, CENTRAL, EMBASE.com, the Cochrane library and Web of Science for Literature, covering publications from January 1, 1998 to November 19, 2016.Study Selection: Studies on risk factors for PSD were identified, according to inclusion and exclusion criteria. The risk of bias tool, described in the Cochrane Handbook version 5.1.0, was used to assess the quality of each study. Meta-analysis was performed using RevMan 5.3 software.Results: Thirty-six studies were included for review. A history of mental illness was the highest ranking modifiable risk factor; other risk factors for PSD were female gender, age (<70 years, neuroticism, family history, severity of stroke, and level of handicap. Social support was a protective factor for PSD.Conclusion: There are many factors that have effects on PSD. The severity of stroke is an important factor in the occurrence of PSD. Mental history is a possible predictor of PSD. Prevention of PSD requires social and family participation.

Spatial Characteristics, Health Risk Assessment and Sustainable Management of Heavy Metals and Metalloids in Soils from Central China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fei Li

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The contents of seven toxic metals (Cu, Cr, Cd, Zn, Pb, Hg and As in soils from Central China, including Henan Province, Hubei Province and Hunan Province, were collected from published papers from 2007 to 2017. The geoaccumulation index, health risk assessment model and statistics were adopted to study the spatial contamination pattern, to assess the human health risks and to identify the priority control pollutants. The concentrations of soil metals in Central China, especially Cd (1.31 mg/kg, Pb (44.43 mg/kg and Hg (0.19 mg/kg, surpassed their corresponding background values, and the Igeo values of Cd and Hg varied the most, ranging from the unpolluted level to the extremely polluted level. The concentrations of toxic metals were higher in the southern and northern parts of Central China, contrasting to the lowest contents in the middle parts. For non-carcinogenic risk, the hazard index (HI values for the children in Hubei Province (1.10 and Hunan Province (1.41 exceeded the safe level of one, with higher health risks to children than adults, and the hazard quotient (HQ values of the three exposure pathways for both children and adults in Central China decreased in the following order: ingestion > dermal contact > inhalation. For carcinogenic risk (CR, the CR values for children in Hubei Province (2.55 × 10−4, Hunan Province (3.44 × 10−4 and Henan Province (1.69 × 10−4, and the CR for adults in Hubei Province (3.67 × 10−5, Hunan Province (4.92 × 10−5 and Henan Province (2.45 × 10−5 exceeded the unacceptable level (10−4 and acceptable level (10−6, respectively. Arsenic (As appeared to be the main metalloid for both children and adults causing the high carcinogenic risk. For sustainable development in Central China, special attention should be paid to Cd, Hg, Cr, Pb and As, identified as the priority control soil metals. Importance should also be attached to public education, source control, and the remediation of the

Central venous pressure monitoring via peripherally or centrally inserted central catheters: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Sanfilippo, Filippo; Noto, Alberto; Martucci, Gennaro; Farbo, Marco; Burgio, Gaetano; Biasucci, Daniele G

2017-07-14

The central venous pressure (CVP) is the most commonly used static marker of preload for guiding fluid therapy in critically ill patients, though its usefulness remains controversial. Centrally inserted central catheters (CICCs) are the gold-standard devices for CVP monitoring but peripherally inserted central catheters (PICCs) may represent a valid alternative. We undertook a systematic review and meta-analysis with the aim to investigate whether the difference between PICC- and CICC-measured CVP is not significant. We searched for clinical studies published in PubMed and EMBASE databases from inception until December 21st 2016. We included studies providing data on paired and simultaneous CVP measurement from PICCs and CICCs. We conducted two analyses on the values of CVP, the first one according to the total number of CVP assessments, the second one considering the number of patients recruited. Four studies matched the inclusion criteria, but only three of them provided data for the meta-analyses. Both analyses showed non-significant differences between PICC-measured and CICC-measured CVP: 1489 paired simultaneous CVP assessments (MD 0.16, 95%CI -0.14, 0.45, p = 0.30) on a total of 57 patients (MD 0.22, 95%CI -1.46, 1.91, p = 0.80). Both analyses showed no heterogeneity (I2 = 0%). Available evidence supports that CVP monitoring with PICCs is accurate and reproduces similar values to those obtained from CICCs. The possibility to monitor CVP should not be used among clinical criteria for preferring a CICC over a PICC line.

Risk Analysis in Road Tunnels – Most Important Risk Indicators

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Berchtold, Florian; Knaust, Christian; Thöns, Sebastian

2016-01-01

Methodologies on fire risk analysis in road tunnels consider numerous factors affecting risks (risk indicators) and express the results by risk measures. But only few comprehensive studies on effects of risk indicators on risk measures are available. For this reason, this study quantifies...... the effects and highlights the most important risk indicators with the aim to support further developments in risk analysis. Therefore, a system model of a road tunnel was developed to determine the risk measures. The system model can be divided into three parts: the fire part connected to the fire model Fire...... Dynamics Simulator (FDS); the evacuation part connected to the evacuation model FDS+Evac; and the frequency part connected to a model to calculate the frequency of fires. This study shows that the parts of the system model (and their most important risk indicators) affect the risk measures in the following...

Risk analysis in radiosurgery treatments using risk matrices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Delgado, J. M.; Sanchez Cayela, C.; Ramirez, M. L.; Perez, A.

2011-01-01

The aim of this study is the risk analysis process stereotactic single-dose radiotherapy and evaluation of those initiating events that lead to increased risk and a possible solution in the design of barriers.

Efficacy of anthropometric measures for identifying cardiovascular disease risk in adolescents: review and meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Lichtenauer, Michael; Wheatley, Sean D; Martyn-St James, Marrissa; Duncan, Michael J; Cobayashi, Fernanda; Berg, Gabriela; Musso, Carla; Graffigna, Mabel; Soutelo, Jimena; Bovet, Pascal; Kollias, Anastasios; Stergiou, George S; Grammatikos, Evangelos; Griffiths, Claire; Ingle, Lee; Jung, Christian

2018-04-12

To compare the ability of body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC) and waist to height ratio (WHtR) to estimate cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk levels in adolescents. A systematic review and meta-analysis was performed after a database search for relevant literature (Cochrane, Centre for Review and Dissemination, PubMed, British Nursing Index, CINAHL, BIOSIS citation index, ChildData, metaRegister). 117 records representing 96 studies with 994,595 participants were included in the systematic review, 14 of which (13 studies, n=14,610) were eligible for the meta-analysis. The results of the meta-analysis showed that BMI was a strong indicator of systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, triglycerides, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and insulin; but not total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein or glucose. Few studies were eligible for inclusion in the meta-analysis considering WC or WHtR (n≤2). The narrative synthesis found measures of central adiposity to be consistently valid indicators of the same risk factors as BMI. BMI was an indicator of CVD risk. WC and WHtR were efficacious for indicating the same risk factors BMI performed strongly for, though there was insufficient evidence to judge the relative strength of each measure possibly due to heterogeneity in the methods for measuring and classifying WC.

Risk analysis of first and last frost occurrences in central Alborz region, Iran

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rahimi, M.; Khalili, A.; Hajjam, S.; Kamali, G.A.; Stigter, C.J.

2007-01-01

Central Alborz is one of the important agricultural regions of Iran. Occurrence of the first frost in fall and the last frost in spring causes damage to the crops in this region every year. Information about the probable dates of frost occurrence helps farmers in preventing or reducing the damages

Risk analysis of Odelouca cofferdam

OpenAIRE

Pimenta, L.; Caldeira, L.; Maranha das Neves, E.

2009-01-01

In this paper we present the risk analysis of Odelouca Cofferdam, using an event tree analysis. The initializing events, failure modes and analysed limit states are discussed based on an influence diagram. The constructed event trees and their interpretation are presented. The obtained risk values are represented in an FN plot superimposed to the acceptability and tolerability risk limits proposed for Portuguese dams. Initially, particular emphasis is placed on the main characteristic...

Pesticide residues in leafy vegetables and human health risk assessment in North Central agricultural areas of Chile.

Science.gov (United States)

Elgueta, Sebastian; Moyano, Stella; Sepúlveda, Paulina; Quiroz, Carlos; Correa, Arturo

2017-06-01

To investigate pesticide residue concentrations and potential human health risk, a study was conducted in 118 leafy vegetable samples collected in 2014-2015 from the North Central agricultural areas of Chile. The pesticide residues were determined using the multiresidue QuEChERS method by gas chromatography as well as high-performance liquid chromatography. The results indicated that 27% of the total samples contained pesticide residues above the maximum residue limits of each active ingredient. The maximum estimated daily intake obtained for carbon disulphide (CS 2 ), methamidophos, azoxystrobin and cypermethrin were 0.57, 0.07, 0.06 and 0.05 mg kg -1 , respectively, which was higher than their acceptable daily intake. It is concluded that inhabitants of the North Central agricultural area of Chile are not exposed to health risks through the consumption of leafy vegetables with the exception of methamidophos. Nevertheless, the high levels of methamidophos detected in leafy vegetables could be considered a potential chronic health risk.

Computational content analysis of European Central Bank statements

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Milea, D.V.; Almeida, R.J.; Sharef, N.M.; Kaymak, U.; Frasincar, F.

2012-01-01

In this paper we present a framework for the computational content analysis of European Central Bank (ECB) statements. Based on this framework, we provide two approaches that can be used in a practical context. Both approaches use the content of ECB statements to predict upward and downward movement

Generalized indices for radiation risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bykov, A.A.; Demin, V.F.

1989-01-01

A new approach to ensuring nuclear safety has begun forming since the early eighties. The approach based on the probabilistic safety analysis, the principles of acceptable risk, the optimization of safety measures, etc. has forced a complex of adequate quantitative methods of assessment, safety analysis and risk management to be developed. The method of radiation risk assessment and analysis hold a prominent place in the complex. National and international research and regulatory organizations ICRP, IAEA, WHO, UNSCEAR, OECD/NEA have given much attention to the development of the conceptual and methodological basis of those methods. Some resolutions of the National Commission of Radiological Protection (NCRP) and the Problem Commission on Radiation Hygiene of the USSR Ministry of Health should be also noted. Both CBA (cost benefit analysis) and other methods of radiation risk analysis and safety management use a system of natural and socio-economic indices characterizing the radiation risk or damage. There exist a number of problems associated with the introduction, justification and use of these indices. For example, the price, a, of radiation damage, or collective dose unit, is a noteworthy index. The difficulties in its qualitative and quantitative determination are still an obstacle for a wide application of CBA to the radiation risk analysis and management. During recent 10-15 years these problems have been a subject of consideration for many authors. The present paper also considers the issues of the qualitative and quantitative justification of the indices of radiation risk analysis

Comparison of Central, Ambulatory, Home and Office Blood Pressure Measurement as Risk Markers for Mild Cognitive Impairment in Hypertensive Patients

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Teodora Yaneva-Sirakova

2017-08-01

Full Text Available Aims: We compared the role of central blood pressure (BP, ambulatory BP monitoring (ABPM, home-measured BP (HMBP and office BP measurement as risk markers for the development of mild cognitive impairment (MCI. Methods: 70 hypertensive patients on combination medical therapy were studied. Their mean age was 64.97 ± 8.88 years. Eighteen (25.71% were males and 52 (74.28% females. All of the patients underwent full physical examination, laboratory screening, echocardiography, and office, ambulatory, home and central BP measurement. The neuropsychological tests used were: Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE and Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA. SPSS 19 was used for the statistical analysis with a level of significance of 0.05. Results: The mean central pulse pressure values of patients with MCI were significantly (p = 0.016 higher than those of the patients without MCI. There was a weak negative correlation between central pulse pressure and the results from the MoCA and MMSE (r = –0.283, p = 0.017 and r = –0.241, p = 0.044, respectively. There was a correlation between ABPM and MCI as well as between HMBP and MCI. Conclusions: The correlation of central BP with target organ damage (MCI is as good as for the other types of measurements of BP (home and ambulatory. Office BP seems to be the poorest marker for the assessment of target organ damage.

Reliability and validity of risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aven, Terje; Heide, Bjornar

2009-01-01

In this paper we investigate to what extent risk analysis meets the scientific quality requirements of reliability and validity. We distinguish between two types of approaches within risk analysis, relative frequency-based approaches and Bayesian approaches. The former category includes both traditional statistical inference methods and the so-called probability of frequency approach. Depending on the risk analysis approach, the aim of the analysis is different, the results are presented in different ways and consequently the meaning of the concepts reliability and validity are not the same.

GIS modeling for canine dirofilariosis risk assessment in central Italy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michele Mortarino

2008-05-01

Full Text Available A survey was conducted in an area of central Italy in order to study the prevalence of Dirofilaria immitis and D. repens in dogs. Blood samples were collected from 283 dogs and examined using a modified Knott’s technique. In addition, in order to detect D. immitis occult infection, 203 serum samples were also analysed for D. immitis antigen detection. The results were analyzed in order to evaluate the behavioural and attitudinal risk factors. A geographical information system (GIS for the study area was constructed, utilizing the following data layers: administrative boundaries, elevation, temperature, rainfall and humidity. Microfilariae were detected in 32 of the 283 dogs surveyed, constituting a total Dirofilaria prevalence of 11.3%. In particular, 20 dogs (7.1% were positive for D. immitis and 12 dogs (4.2% for D. repens microfilariae. One case of D. immitis occult infection was also detected. Choroplethic municipal maps were drawn within the GIS in order to display the distribution of each Dirofilaria species in the study area. Statistical analysis showed a significant association between Dirofilaria infection and animal attitude (hunting/truffle dogs showed a higher prevalence compared to guard/pet dogs. A higher prevalence was also recorded in 2 to 5-years old dogs. Furthermore a GIS-based modelling of climatic data, collected from 5 meteorological stations in the study area, was performed to estimate the yearly number of D. immitis generations in the mosquito vector. The results of the model as depicted by GIS analysis was highly concordant with the territorial distribution of positive dogs and showed that D. immitis spreading is markedly influenced by season. The potential transmission period in the study area was found to be confined to summer months with a peak in July and August, as expected for a temperate region where summer season is the most favourable period for the parasite.

Safety analysis, risk assessment, and risk acceptance criteria

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jamali, K.

1997-01-01

This paper discusses a number of topics that relate safety analysis as documented in the Department of Energy (DOE) safety analysis reports (SARs), probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) as characterized primarily in the context of the techniques that have assumed some level of formality in commercial nuclear power plant applications, and risk acceptance criteria as an outgrowth of PRA applications. DOE SARs of interest are those that are prepared for DOE facilities under DOE Order 5480.23 and the implementing guidance in DOE STD-3009-94. It must be noted that the primary area of application for DOE STD-3009 is existing DOE facilities and that certain modifications of the STD-3009 approach are necessary in SARs for new facilities. Moreover, it is the hazard analysis (HA) and accident analysis (AA) portions of these SARs that are relevant to the present discussions. Although PRAs can be qualitative in nature, PRA as used in this paper refers more generally to all quantitative risk assessments and their underlying methods. HA as used in this paper refers more generally to all qualitative risk assessments and their underlying methods that have been in use in hazardous facilities other than nuclear power plants. This discussion includes both quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methods. PRA has been used, improved, developed, and refined since the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) was published in 1975 by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Much debate has ensued since WASH-1400 on exactly what the role of PRA should be in plant design, reactor licensing, 'ensuring' plant and process safety, and a large number of other decisions that must be made for potentially hazardous activities. Of particular interest in this area is whether the risks quantified using PRA should be compared with numerical risk acceptance criteria (RACs) to determine whether a facility is 'safe.' Use of RACs requires quantitative estimates of consequence frequency and magnitude

A background to risk analysis. Vol. 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Taylor, J.R.

1979-01-01

This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justification or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appendix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 2 treats generic methods of qualitative failure analysis. (BP)

Information Security Risk Analysis

CERN Document Server

Peltier, Thomas R

2010-01-01

Offers readers with the knowledge and the skill-set needed to achieve a highly effective risk analysis assessment. This title demonstrates how to identify threats and then determine if those threats pose a real risk. It is suitable for industry and academia professionals.

Landslide hazards and systems analysis: A Central European perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Klose, Martin; Damm, Bodo; Kreuzer, Thomas

2016-04-01

Part of the problem with assessing landslide hazards is to understand the variable settings in which they occur. There is growing consensus that hazard assessments require integrated approaches that take account of the coupled human-environment system. Here we provide a synthesis of societal exposure and vulnerability to landslide hazards, review innovative approaches to hazard identification, and lay a focus on hazard assessment, while presenting the results of historical case studies and a landslide time series for Germany. The findings add to a growing body of literature that recognizes societal exposure and vulnerability as a complex system of hazard interactions that evolves over time as a function of social change and development. We therefore propose to expand hazard assessments by the framework and concepts of systems analysis (e.g., Liu et al., 2007) Results so far have been promising in ways that illustrate the importance of feedbacks, thresholds, surprises, and time lags in the evolution of landslide hazard and risk. In densely populated areas of Central Europe, landslides often occur in urbanized landscapes or on engineered slopes that had been transformed or created intentionally by human activity, sometimes even centuries ago. The example of Germany enables to correlate the causes and effects of recent landslides with the historical transition of urbanization to urban sprawl, ongoing demographic change, and some chronic problems of industrialized countries today, including ageing infrastructures or rising government debts. In large parts of rural Germany, the combination of ageing infrastructures, population loss, and increasing budget deficits starts to erode historical resilience gains, which brings especially small communities to a tipping point in their efforts to risk reduction. While struggling with budget deficits and demographic change, these communities are required to maintain ageing infrastructures that are particularly vulnerable to

Bias in risk-benefit analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mazur, A.

1985-01-01

Risk-benefit analysis has become popular in the past decade as a means of improving decision making, especially in the area of technology policy. Here risk-benefit analysis is compared to other (equally defensible) approaches to decision making, showing how it favors some political interests more than others, and suggesting why it has recently come to the fore as a tool of political analysis. A considerable portion of the discussion concerns nuclear power. 6 references

Incidence and mechanism of central pontine myelinolysis based on analysis of MRI images and risk factors

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kondo, Masato [Akita Univ. (Japan). School of Medicine

2000-02-01

In this study, the incidence of central pontine myelinolysis (CPM)-like lesions on MRI images was studied in 1917 subjects, 1,500 of which were psychiatric patients and 417 were patients attending a brain health examination. The CPM-like lesions were first classified into four groups based on the characteristics of their MRI images: group 1 showed symmetrical lesions on both T1 low and T2 high images and were considered to be typical CPM; group 2 showed symmetrical high intensity lesions only on T2 images; group 3 had asymmetrical lesions only on T2 images; and group 4 had asymmetrical lesions on both T1 low and T2 high images. Furthermore, the relationships of each group with particular risk factors, such as alcoholism, hypertension, hyperlipidemia were statistically analysed. The cause of CPM-like features in the MRI images were discussed. Among our subjects, the incidence of CPM-like lesions was 3.8%, and that of group 1 was 1.2%. Significant correlations between group 1 and alcoholism, and group 3 and 4 with brain ischemic lesions were observed. A previous hypothesis that group 2 may be a premature state of CPM is not supported by our results. (author)

Incidence and mechanism of central pontine myelinolysis based on analysis of MRI images and risk factors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kondo, Masato

2000-01-01

In this study, the incidence of central pontine myelinolysis (CPM)-like lesions on MRI images was studied in 1917 subjects, 1,500 of which were psychiatric patients and 417 were patients attending a brain health examination. The CPM-like lesions were first classified into four groups based on the characteristics of their MRI images: group 1 showed symmetrical lesions on both T1 low and T2 high images and were considered to be typical CPM; group 2 showed symmetrical high intensity lesions only on T2 images; group 3 had asymmetrical lesions only on T2 images; and group 4 had asymmetrical lesions on both T1 low and T2 high images. Furthermore, the relationships of each group with particular risk factors, such as alcoholism, hypertension, hyperlipidemia were statistically analysed. The cause of CPM-like features in the MRI images were discussed. Among our subjects, the incidence of CPM-like lesions was 3.8%, and that of group 1 was 1.2%. Significant correlations between group 1 and alcoholism, and group 3 and 4 with brain ischemic lesions were observed. A previous hypothesis that group 2 may be a premature state of CPM is not supported by our results. (author)

Durable decision-making is central to the control of risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zebroski, E.L.

1990-01-01

In several capacities the author has promoted the importance of risk analysis techniques as a rational path to the improved assurance of safety. The interest in decisions arose from the persistent observation of only moderate or minor impacts or benefits to practical operations from the availability of wall documented risk analysis studies for many nuclear units. The complexity and number of variables in decisions on matters of safety of large scale operations defies ordinary intuitive decision making. The structured decision process is not a panacea, but is often the practical tool of choise for managing complexity in an orderly way. Typical basic sources for decision techniques are listed in references. (orig.)

SYNERGISTIC EFFECTS OF TOTAL QUALITY MANAGEMENT AND OPERATIONAL RISK MANAGEMENT IN CENTRAL BANKS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Radoica Luburić

2012-12-01

Full Text Available This paper focuses on two very important and current approaches to management: Total Quality Management (TQM and Operational Risk Management (ORM. As a paradigm of business success, TQM provides the key assumptions for survival, development and success of an organisation, regardless of any limitations whatsoever. ORM, on the other hand, is predetermined to be an irreplaceable managerial tool that enables organisations to survive in any environment. In times of accelerated political, economic and technological changes, frequent natural disasters, acts of terrorism and other external events, a successful risk management has been gaining importance and becomes one of the key competitive advantages of an organisation. The ultimate objective is to make TQM and ORM, as two rather compatible and complementary approaches to risk management, harmonized, efficient and functional in order to get their synergistic effects in an organisation in full swing and practice. Various organisations, and thus central banks as conservative institutions, have an innovative opportunity to timely minimize their operational risk through preventive, comprehensive and synergistic operation of TQM and ORM and thus significantly contribute to improving their business performance.

Network centrality measures and systemic risk: An application to the Turkish financial crisis

Science.gov (United States)

Kuzubaş, Tolga Umut; Ömercikoğlu, Inci; Saltoğlu, Burak

2014-07-01

In this paper, we analyze the performance of several network centrality measures in detecting systemically important financial institutions (SIFI) using data from the Turkish Interbank market during the financial crisis in 2000. We employ various network investigation tools such as volume, transactions, links, connectivity and reciprocity to gain a clearer picture of the network topology of the interbank market. We study the main borrower role of Demirbank in the crash of the banking system with network centrality measures which are extensively used in the network theory. This ex-post analysis of the crisis shows that centrality measures perform well in identifying and monitoring systemically important financial institutions which provide useful insights for financial regulations.

Fish intake and ovarian cancer risk: a meta-analysis of 15 case-control and cohort studies.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pei-yue Jiang

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Previous epidemiological studies have shown that fish consumption may modify the risk of ovarian cancer. However, these studies yielded controversial results. The present meta-analysis was undertaken to evaluate the relationship between fish intake and ovarian cancer risk. METHODS: A literature search was carried out using Pubmed, Embase, and Cochrane Library Central database for all relevant studies up to August 2013. We pooled the relative risks (RR from individual studies using fixed-effect or random-effect model, and carried out heterogeneity and publication bias analyses. RESULTS: A total of 15 (ten case-control, and five cohort studies were included in the present meta-analysis, representing data for 889,033 female subjects and 6,087 ovarian cancer cases. We found that total fish intake was not significantly associated with the risk of ovarian cancer among cohort studies (RR = 1.04 95% CI [0.89, 1.22] as well as case-control studies (RR = 0.90, 95% CI [0.73,1.12]. There was no evidence of publication bias as suggested by Begg's test (P = 0.55 and Egger's test(P = 0.29. CONCLUSIONS: The present meta-analysis showed that total fish consumption was not significantly associated with the risk of ovarian cancer. Further analysis on different fish species and food preparation methods should be conducted in future studies.

NEIGHBOURHOOD POVERTY, PERCEIVED DISCRIMINATION AND CENTRAL ADIPOSITY IN THE USA: INDEPENDENT ASSOCIATIONS IN A REPEATED MEASURES ANALYSIS.

Science.gov (United States)

Kwarteng, Jamila L; Schulz, Amy J; Mentz, Graciela B; Israel, Barbara A; Shanks, Trina R; Perkins, Denise White

2016-11-01

This study examines the independent effects of neighbourhood context (i.e. neighbourhood poverty) and exposure to perceived discrimination in shaping risk of obesity over time. Weighted three-level hierarchical linear regression models for a continuous outcome were used to assess the independent effects of neighbourhood poverty and perceived discrimination on obesity over time in a sample of 157 non-Hispanic Black, non-Hispanic White and Hispanic adults in Detroit, USA, in 2002/2003 and 2007/2008. Independent associations were found between neighbourhood poverty and perceived discrimination with central adiposity over time. Residents of neighbourhoods with high concentrations of poverty were more likely to show increases in central adiposity compared with those in neighbourhoods with lower concentrations of poverty. In models adjusted for BMI, neighbourhood poverty at baseline was associated with a greater change in central adiposity among participants who lived in neighbourhoods in the second (B=3.79, p=0.025) and third (B=3.73, p=0.024) poverty quartiles, compared with those in the lowest poverty neighbourhoods. The results from models that included both neighbourhood poverty and perceived discrimination showed that both were associated with increased risk of increased central adiposity over time. Residents of neighbourhoods in the second (B=9.58, ppoverty were more likely to show greater increases in central adiposity over time, compared with those in the lowest poverty quartile, with mean discrimination at baseline independently and positively associated with increases in central adiposity over time (B=2.36, p=0.020). The results suggest that neighbourhood poverty and perceived discrimination are independently associated with a heightened risk of increase in central adiposity over time. Efforts to address persistent disparities in central adiposity in the USA should include strategies to reduce high concentrations of neighbourhood poverty as well as

A background to risk analysis. Vol. 4

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Taylor, J.R.

1979-01-01

This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles, and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justification or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appendix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 4 treats human error in plant operation. (BP)

Management of environmental risks associated with landfills in seismically active regions in the New Independent States of Central Asia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Webb, S.M.

2009-01-01

Sustainable waste management and disposal is a societal challenge in terms of economics, public health and environmental impact. The situation in developing countries, and in particular those subject to extreme natural hazards, results in increased overall risk as governments prioritize investments to issues of perceived higher economic importance. This dissertation investigates environmental risks associated with landfills in seismically active regions in the New Independent States of Central Asia. Environmental risk from municipal solid waste landfill sites encompasses a wide range of topics within socio-economics, physical sciences and engineering and therefore necessitates a multi-disciplinary approach. The underlying study is an accumulative result of a three-year collaborative research project (Contract No. INCO-CT-2005-516732) funded within the Eu Sixth Framework Programme (FP6). The international cooperation involved European, Russian and Central Asian research partners forming a multi-disciplinary consortium covering: GIS technologies, geology / hydrogeology geophysics and geotechnical engineering; landfill design and operation and waste management. understanding the relevant socio-economic aspects and legislative frameworks was necessary to prepare results and recommendations to address stakeholders in the Central Asian countries: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan,Tajikistan,Turkmenistan and uzbekistan. (author) [de

Decree N0 73-322 of 15 March 1973 concerning insurance and reinsurance of exceptional and nuclear risks by the Central Reinsurance Fund

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1973-01-01

This Decree provides that the Central Reinsurance Fund may cover, with the State guarantee, risks for which operators of nuclear ships and installations are liable and concerning which State intervention is provided for by legislation. These operations relate in particular to goods carried, nuclear installations and property on the site of such installations. The Decree sets up an Advisory Commission for the Central Reinsurance Fund regarding security for exceptional and nuclear risks and repeals a 1967 Decree on insurance of exceptional risks. (NEA) [fr

Landslide risk analysis: a multi-disciplinary methodological approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Sterlacchini

2007-11-01

Full Text Available This study describes an analysis carried out within the European community project "ALARM" (Assessment of Landslide Risk and Mitigation in Mountain Areas, 2004 on landslide risk assessment in the municipality of Corvara in Badia, Italy. This mountainous area, located in the central Dolomites (Italian Alps, poses a significant landslide hazard to several man-made and natural objects. Three parameters for determining risk were analysed as an aid to preparedness and mitigation planning: event occurrence probability, elements at risk, and the vulnerability of these elements. Initially, a landslide hazard scenario was defined; this step was followed by the identification of the potential vulnerable elements, by the estimation of the expected physical effects, due to the occurrence of a damaging phenomenon, and by the analysis of social and economic features of the area. Finally, a potential risk scenario was defined, where the relationships between the event, its physical effects, and its economic consequences were investigated. People and public administrators with training and experience in local landsliding and slope processes were involved in each step of the analysis.

A "cause-effect" correlation was applied, derived from the "dose-response" equation initially used in the biological sciences and then adapted by economists for the assessment of environmental risks. The relationship was analysed from a physical point of view and the cause (the natural event was correlated to the physical effects, i.e. the aesthetic, functional, and structural damage. An economic evaluation of direct and indirect damage was carried out considering the assets in the affected area (i.e., tourist flows, goods, transport and the effect on other social and economic activities. This study shows the importance of indirect damage, which is as significant as direct damage. The total amount of direct damage was estimated in 8 913 000 €; on the contrary, indirect

Landslide risk analysis: a multi-disciplinary methodological approach

Science.gov (United States)

Sterlacchini, S.; Frigerio, S.; Giacomelli, P.; Brambilla, M.

2007-11-01

This study describes an analysis carried out within the European community project "ALARM" (Assessment of Landslide Risk and Mitigation in Mountain Areas, 2004) on landslide risk assessment in the municipality of Corvara in Badia, Italy. This mountainous area, located in the central Dolomites (Italian Alps), poses a significant landslide hazard to several man-made and natural objects. Three parameters for determining risk were analysed as an aid to preparedness and mitigation planning: event occurrence probability, elements at risk, and the vulnerability of these elements. Initially, a landslide hazard scenario was defined; this step was followed by the identification of the potential vulnerable elements, by the estimation of the expected physical effects, due to the occurrence of a damaging phenomenon, and by the analysis of social and economic features of the area. Finally, a potential risk scenario was defined, where the relationships between the event, its physical effects, and its economic consequences were investigated. People and public administrators with training and experience in local landsliding and slope processes were involved in each step of the analysis. A "cause-effect" correlation was applied, derived from the "dose-response" equation initially used in the biological sciences and then adapted by economists for the assessment of environmental risks. The relationship was analysed from a physical point of view and the cause (the natural event) was correlated to the physical effects, i.e. the aesthetic, functional, and structural damage. An economic evaluation of direct and indirect damage was carried out considering the assets in the affected area (i.e., tourist flows, goods, transport and the effect on other social and economic activities). This study shows the importance of indirect damage, which is as significant as direct damage. The total amount of direct damage was estimated in 8 913 000 €; on the contrary, indirect damage ranged considerably

RiskChanges Spatial Decision Support system for the analysis of changing multi-hazard risk

Science.gov (United States)

van Westen, Cees; Zhang, Kaixi; Bakker, Wim; Andrejchenko, Vera; Berlin, Julian; Olyazadeh, Roya; Cristal, Irina

2015-04-01

Within the framework of the EU FP7 Marie Curie Project CHANGES and the EU FP7 Copernicus project INCREO a spatial decision support system was developed with the aim to analyse the effect of risk reduction planning alternatives on reducing the risk now and in the future, and support decision makers in selecting the best alternatives. Central to the SDSS are the stakeholders. The envisaged users of the system are organizations involved in planning of risk reduction measures, and that have staff capable of visualizing and analyzing spatial data at a municipal scale. The SDSS should be able to function in different countries with different legal frameworks and with organizations with different mandates. These could be subdivided into Civil protection organization with the mandate to design disaster response plans, Expert organizations with the mandate to design structural risk reduction measures (e.g. dams, dikes, check-dams etc), and planning organizations with the mandate to make land development plans. The SDSS can be used in different ways: analyzing the current level of risk, analyzing the best alternatives for risk reduction, the evaluation of the consequences of possible future scenarios to the risk levels, and the evaluation how different risk reduction alternatives will lead to risk reduction under different future scenarios. The SDSS is developed based on open source software and following open standards, for code as well as for data formats and service interfaces. Code development was based upon open source software as well. The architecture of the system is modular. The various parts of the system are loosely coupled, extensible, using standards for interoperability, flexible and web-based. The Spatial Decision Support System is composed of a number of integrated components. The Risk Assessment component allows to carry out spatial risk analysis, with different degrees of complexity, ranging from simple exposure (overlay of hazard and assets maps) to

Small-for-gestational age prevalence risk factors in central Appalachian states with mountain-top mining.

Science.gov (United States)

Ferdosi, Hamid; Lamm, Steve H; Afari-Dwamena, Nana Ama; Dissen, Elisabeth; Chen, Rusan; Li, Ji; Feinleib, Manning

2018-01-01

To identify risk factors for small-for-gestational age (SGA) for counties in central Appalachian states (Kentucky (KY), Tennessee (TN), Virginia (VA), and West Virginia (WV)) with varied coal mining activities. Live birth certificate files (1990-2002) were used for obtaining SGA prevalence rates for mothers based on the coal mining activities of their counties of residence, mountain-top mining (MTM) activities, underground mining activities but no mountain-top mining activity (non-MTM), or having no mining activities (non-mining). Co-variable information, including maternal tobacco use, was also obtained from the live birth certificate. Adjusted odds ratios were obtained using multivariable logistic regression comparing SGA prevalence rates for counties with coal mining activities to those without coal mining activities and comparing SGA prevalence rates for counties with coal mining activities for those with and without mountain-top mining activities. Comparisons were also made among those who had reported tobacco use and those who had not. Both tobacco use prevalence and SGA prevalence were significantly greater for mining counties than for non-mining counties and for MTM counties than for non-MTM counties. Adjustment for tobacco use alone explained 50% of the increased SGA risk for mining counties and 75% of the risk for MTM counties, including demographic pre-natal care co-variables that explained 75% of the increased SGA risk for mining counties and 100% of the risk for MTM. The increased risk of SGA was limited to the third trimester births among tobacco users and independent of the mining activities of their counties of residence. This study demonstrates that the increased prevalence of SGA among residents of counties with mining activity was primarily explained by the differences in maternal tobacco use prevalence, an effect that itself was gestational-age dependent. Self-reported tobacco use marked the population at the increased risk for SGA in central

Advances in probabilistic risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hardung von Hardung, H.

1982-01-01

Probabilistic risk analysis can now look back upon almost a quarter century of intensive development. The early studies, whose methods and results are still referred to occasionally, however, only permitted rough estimates to be made of the probabilities of recognizable accident scenarios, failing to provide a method which could have served as a reference base in calculating the overall risk associated with nuclear power plants. The first truly solid attempt was the Rasmussen Study and, partly based on it, the German Risk Study. In those studies, probabilistic risk analysis has been given a much more precise basis. However, new methodologies have been developed in the meantime, which allow much more informative risk studies to be carried out. They have been found to be valuable tools for management decisions with respect to backfitting, reinforcement and risk limitation. Today they are mainly applied by specialized private consultants and have already found widespread application especially in the USA. (orig.) [de

Evidence Report: Risk of Acute and Late Central Nervous System Effects from Radiation Exposure

Science.gov (United States)

Nelson, Gregory A.; Simonsen, Lisa; Huff, Janice L.

2016-01-01

Possible acute and late risks to the central nervous system (CNS) from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPE) are concerns for human exploration of space. Acute CNS risks may include: altered cognitive function, reduced motor function, and behavioral changes, all of which may affect performance and human health. Late CNS risks may include neurological disorders such as Alzheimer's disease (AD), dementia and premature aging. Although detrimental CNS changes are observed in humans treated with high-dose radiation (e.g., gamma rays and 9 protons) for cancer and are supported by experimental evidence showing neurocognitive and behavioral effects in animal models, the significance of these results on the morbidity to astronauts has not been elucidated. There is a lack of human epidemiology data on which to base CNS risk estimates; therefore, risk projection based on scaling to human data, as done for cancer risk, is not possible for CNS risks. Research specific to the spaceflight environment using animal and cell models must be compiled to quantify the magnitude of CNS changes in order to estimate this risk and to establish validity of the current permissible exposure limits (PELs). In addition, the impact of radiation exposure in combination with individual sensitivity or other space flight factors, as well as assessment of the need for biological/pharmaceutical countermeasures, will be considered after further definition of CNS risk occurs.

WIPP fire hazards and risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1991-05-01

The purpose of this analysis was to conduct a fire hazards risk analysis of the Transuranic (TRU) contact-handled waste receipt, emplacement, and disposal activities at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). The technical bases and safety envelope for these operations are defined in the approved WIPP Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR). Although the safety documentation for the initial phase of the Test Program, the dry bin scale tests, has not yet been approved by the Department of Energy (DOE), reviews of the draft to date, including those by the Advisory Committee on Nuclear Facility Safety (ACNFS), have concluded that the dry bin scale tests present no significant risks in excess of those estimated in the approved WIPP FSAR. It is the opinion of the authors and reviewers of this analysis, based on sound engineering judgment and knowledge of the WIPP operations, that a Fire Hazards and Risk Analysis specific to the dry bin scale test program is not warranted prior to first waste receipt. This conclusion is further supported by the risk analysis presented in this document which demonstrates the level of risk to WIPP operations posed by fire to be extremely low. 15 refs., 41 figs., 48 tabs

Acceptability of mobile health interventions to reduce inactivity-related health risk in central Pennsylvania adults

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chih-Hsiang Yang

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Insufficient physical activity and excessive sedentary behavior elevate health risk. Mobile applications (apps provide one mode for delivering interventions to modify these behaviors and reduce health risk. The purpose of this study was to characterize the need for and acceptability of health behavior interventions among rural adults and evaluate the interest in and the value of app-based interventions in this population. Central Pennsylvania adults with smartphones (N = 258 completed a brief web survey in October–November 2012. Most adults report one or both inactivity-related behavioral risk factors, would use a free app to modify those risk behaviors, and would pay a small amount for that app. Low-cost, efficacious apps to increase physical activity or reduce sedentary behavior should be promoted in public health practice. User experience should be at the forefront of this process to increase value and minimize burden in the service of long-term engagement, behavior change, and health risk reduction.

Centralization vs. Decentralization: A Location Analysis Approach for Librarians

Science.gov (United States)

Raffel, Jeffrey; Shishko, Robert

1972-01-01

An application of location theory to the question of centralized versus decentralized library facilities for a university, with relevance for special libraries is presented. The analysis provides models for a single library, for two or more libraries, or for decentralized facilities. (6 references) (Author/NH)

Risk Characterization uncertainties associated description, sensitivity analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carrillo, M.; Tovar, M.; Alvarez, J.; Arraez, M.; Hordziejewicz, I.; Loreto, I.

2013-01-01

The power point presentation is about risks to the estimated levels of exposure, uncertainty and variability in the analysis, sensitivity analysis, risks from exposure to multiple substances, formulation of guidelines for carcinogenic and genotoxic compounds and risk subpopulations

Advances in Risk Analysis with Big Data.

Science.gov (United States)

Choi, Tsan-Ming; Lambert, James H

2017-08-01

With cloud computing, Internet-of-things, wireless sensors, social media, fast storage and retrieval, etc., organizations and enterprises have access to unprecedented amounts and varieties of data. Current risk analysis methodology and applications are experiencing related advances and breakthroughs. For example, highway operations data are readily available, and making use of them reduces risks of traffic crashes and travel delays. Massive data of financial and enterprise systems support decision making under risk by individuals, industries, regulators, etc. In this introductory article, we first discuss the meaning of big data for risk analysis. We then examine recent advances in risk analysis with big data in several topic areas. For each area, we identify and introduce the relevant articles that are featured in the special issue. We conclude with a discussion on future research opportunities. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Overcoming barriers to integrating economic analysis into risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Hoffmann, Sandra

2011-09-01

Regulatory risk analysis is designed to provide decisionmakers with a clearer understanding of how policies are likely to affect risk. The systems that produce risk are biological, physical, and social and economic. As a result, risk analysis is an inherently interdisciplinary task. Yet in practice, risk analysis has been interdisciplinary in only limited ways. Risk analysis could provide more accurate assessments of risk if there were better integration of economics and other social sciences into risk assessment itself. This essay examines how discussions about risk analysis policy have influenced the roles of various disciplines in risk analysis. It explores ways in which integrated bio/physical-economic modeling could contribute to more accurate assessments of risk. It reviews examples of the kind of integrated economics-bio/physical modeling that could be used to enhance risk assessment. The essay ends with a discussion of institutional barriers to greater integration of economic modeling into risk assessment and provides suggestions on how these might be overcome. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Risk factors for diabetes, but not for cardiovascular disease, are associated with family history of Type 2 diabetes in subjects from central Mexico.

Science.gov (United States)

Zamora-Ginez, Irma; Pérez-Fuentes, Ricardo; Baez-Duarte, Blanca G; Revilla-Monsalve, Cristina; Brambila, Eduardo

2012-03-01

Independent of obesity, family history of type 2 diabetes mellitus (FHT2DM) is another important risk factor for developing diabetes. To establish the association among FHT2DM, risk factors for diabetes and cardiovascular disease in subjects from central Mexico. Clinical and biochemical studies were performed in 383 first-degree relatives of patients with type 2 diabetes and 270 subjects unrelated to patients with type 2 diabetes-all subjects were from the city of Puebla in central Mexico. Logistic regressions were used to assess the association between FHT2DM and metabolic parameters. Cardiovascular risk was classified by dyslipidemia and the Framingham Risk Score (FRS). FHT2DM was associated with risk factors for diabetes, such as increased fasting insulin levels (OR = 1.731, 95% CI = 1.041-2.877), decreased insulin sensitivity (OR = 1.951, 95% CI = 1.236-3.080) and pre-diabetes (OR = 1.63, 95% CI = 1.14-2.33). FHT2DH was not associated with risk factors for cardiovascular disease, such as dyslipidemia (OR = 1.12, 95% CI = 0.70-1.79) and FRS (OR = 0.74, 95% CI = 0.40-1.36) when adjusted for gender, age, smoking and obesity. Diabetic risk factors, but not cardiovascular disease risk factors, are associated with a positive family history of diabetes in subjects from central Mexico, independent of the presence of obesity.

NATURAL AND ANTHROPIC RISK STUDIES IN FOUR DECADES IN THE GEOGRAPHICAL JOURNAL OF CENTRAL AMERICA (1974 - 2015)

OpenAIRE

Quesada-Román, Adolfo

2017-01-01

The aim of this work is to identify the influence of the international and national epistemological trends and the techniques in the risk management of disasters (RMD) in Costa Rica. To do this, the journal papers of the Geographical Journal of Central America between 1974 and 2015 were analyzed -114 included topics related to natural and anthropogenic risks. They were classified into eight thematic classes: seismic hazards, volcanic hazards, slope processes hazards, hydrometeorological hazar...

Effect of central ventilation and air conditioner system on the concentration and health risk from airborne polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons.

Science.gov (United States)

Lv, Jinze; Zhu, Lizhong

2013-03-01

Central ventilation and air conditioner systems are widely utilized nowadays in public places for air exchange and temperature control, which significantly influences the transfer of pollutants between indoors and outdoors. To study the effect of central ventilation and air conditioner systems on the concentration and health risk from airborne pollutants, a spatial and temporal survey was carried out using polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) as agent pollutants. During the period when the central ventilation system operated without air conditioning (AC-off period), concentrations of 2-4 ring PAHs in the model supermarket were dominated by outdoor levels, due to the good linearity between indoor air and outdoor air (r(p) > 0.769, p air conditioner systems were working simultaneously (AC-on period), although the total levels of PAHs were increased, the concentrations and percentage of the particulate PAHs indoors declined significantly. The BaP equivalency (BaPeq) concentration indicated that utilization of air conditioning reduced the health risks from PAHs in the model supermarket.

Contemporary approaches to reducing the risks of central counterparties based on the use of marginal contributions

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Utkin Viktor Sergeyevich

2012-07-01

Full Text Available To protect their own interests central counterparties has developed a number of procedures, including payment of guarantee margin by trading members as a means to ensure their positions. This article discusses a number of approaches, which attempt to simulate the risks of the Central Committee, as well as calculating the amount of margin and other resources in the event of insolvency. These approaches are based on the simulation of the three main types: (a statistical modeling; (b optimization modeling, and (c model of option pricing. The author incorporates the basic provisions of models.

CENTRAL PLATEAU REMEDIATION

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

ROMINE, L.D.

2006-01-01

A systematic approach to closure planning is being implemented at the Hanford Site's Central Plateau to help achieve the goal of closure by the year 2035. The overall objective of Central Plateau remediation is to protect human health and the environment from the significant quantity of contaminated material that resulted from decades of plutonium production in support of the nation's defense. This goal will be achieved either by removing contaminants or placing the residual contaminated materials in a secure configuration that minimizes further migration to the groundwater and reduces the potential for inadvertent intrusion into contaminated sites. The approach to Central Plateau cleanup used three key concepts--closure zones, closure elements, and closure process steps--to create an organized picture of actions required to complete remediation. These actions were merged with logic ties, constraints, and required resources to produce an integrated time-phased schedule and cost profile for Central Plateau closure. Programmatic risks associated with implementation of Central Plateau closure were identified and analyzed. Actions to mitigate the most significant risks are underway while high priority remediation projects continue to make progress

Oil-spill risk analysis: Central and western Gulf of Mexico Outer Continental Shelf, Lease Sales 139 and 141. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Johnson, W.R.; Lear, E.M.

1992-02-01

The Federal Government has proposed to offer Outer Continental Shelf lands in the Gulf of Mexico for oil and gas leasing. Because oil spills may occur from activities associated with offshore oil production, the Minerals Management Service conducts a formal risk assessment. The effects of oil spills that could occur during oil and gas production must be considered. The report summarizes results of an oil spill risk analysis conducted for the proposed Gulf of Mexico Outer Continental Shelf Lease Sales 139 and 141

Maritime transportation risk analysis: Review and analysis in light of some foundational issues

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goerlandt, Floris; Montewka, Jakub

2015-01-01

Many methods and applications for maritime transportation risk analysis have been presented in the literature. In parallel, there is a recent focus on foundational issues in risk analysis, with calls for intensified research on fundamental concepts and principles underlying the scientific field. This paper presents a review and analysis of risk definitions, perspectives and scientific approaches to risk analysis found in the maritime transportation application area, focusing on applications addressing accidental risk of shipping in a sea area. For this purpose, a classification of risk definitions, an overview of elements in risk perspectives and a classification of approaches to risk analysis science are applied. Results reveal that in the application area, risk is strongly tied to probability, both in definitions and perspectives, while alternative views exist. A diffuse situation is also found concerning the scientific approach to risk analysis, with realist, proceduralist and constructivist foundations co-existing. Realist approaches dominate the application area. Very few applications systematically account for uncertainty, neither concerning the evidence base nor in relation to the limitations of the risk model in relation to the space of possible outcomes. Some suggestions are made to improve the current situation, aiming to strengthen the scientific basis for risk analysis. - Highlights: • Risk analyses in maritime transportation analysed in light of foundational issues. • Focus on definitions, perspectives and scientific approaches to risk analysis. • Probability-based definitions and realist approaches dominate the field. • Findings support calls for increased focus on foundational issues in risk research. • Some suggestions are made to improve the current situation

STOCHASTIC METHODS IN RISK ANALYSIS

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Vladimíra OSADSKÁ

2017-06-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we review basic stochastic methods which can be used to extend state-of-the-art deterministic analytical methods for risk analysis. We can conclude that the standard deterministic analytical methods highly depend on the practical experience and knowledge of the evaluator and therefore, the stochastic methods should be introduced. The new risk analysis methods should consider the uncertainties in input values. We present how large is the impact on the results of the analysis solving practical example of FMECA with uncertainties modelled using Monte Carlo sampling.

Risk of herpes zoster and family history: A Meta-analysis of case–control studies

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Yi Chun Lai

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Background: Herpes zoster (HZ results from the reactivation of latent varicella zoster virus (VZV residing in dorsal root and cranial nerve ganglia. Advanced age and dysfunctional cell-mediated immune responses are well-established risk factors for VZV reactivation. There have been recent interests in whether there is an increased risk of the disease associated with a positive family history. Aims and Objectives: We aimed to conduct a meta-analysis to evaluate the association between HZ infection and family history. In addition, we investigated the dose-response relationship between HZ infection and the number of relatives with a history of HZ. Materials and Methods: Observational studies were searched from MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane Central Register from inception to April 15, 2015. The Meta-analysis of Observational Studies in Epidemiology guidelines were followed in conducting this study. To estimate the pooled odds ratio, random-effects model of DerSimonian and Laird was used. Heterogeneity between studies was assessed using the I2 statistic. A dose-response meta-analysis with studies that reported appropriate data were done using the generalized least squares for trend method. Results: Five studies, yielding a total of 4169 subjects, were identified for meta-analysis. Cases with HZ were 3.03 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.86–4.94, P < 0.001 and 3.27 (95% CI: 1.75–6.10, P < 0.001 times more likely to report the first-degree relatives and total relatives with a history of HZ, respectively. A significant positive dose-response relationship between the risk of HZ infection and the number of relatives with a history of HZ was also demonstrated (P < 0.001. Conclusions: This meta-analysis demonstrated that family history is a significant risk factor for HZ infection. This risk has a dose-response relationship with the number of relatives with a history of HZ.

Risk Analysis of Telecom Enterprise Financing

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

YU Hua; SHU Hua-ying

2005-01-01

The main research objects in this paper are the causes searching and risk estimating method for telecom enterprises' financial risks. The multi-mode financing for telecom enterprises makes it flexible to induce the capital and obtain the profit by corresponding projects. But there are also potential risks going with these financing modes. After making analysis of categories and causes of telecom enterprises' financing risk, a method by Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is put forward to estimating the financing risk. And the author makes her suggestion and opinion by example analysis, in order to provide some ideas and basis for telecom enterprise's financing decision-making.

Disposal of household burned garbage and risk of low birth weight in Central Sulawesi Province, Indonesia

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Puti Sari Hidayangsih

2015-01-01

Full Text Available AbstrakLatar belakang: Pembakaran sampah di dalam rumah tanggadapat mempengaruhi berat badan bayi lahir rendah (BBLR. Pada tulisan ini disajikan pembakaran sampah di rumah tangga terhadap risiko BBLR.Metode: Analisis data menggunakan sebagian data studi potong lintang Riskesdas 2013 di Provinsi Sulawesi Tengah. Data yang dianalisis ialah data bayi berusia 0-11 bulan. Berat badan bayi waktu lahir berdasarkan catatan berat bayi saat lahir yang tercatat dalam kuesioner Riskesdas. Bayi dikategorikan BBLR jika berat badan waktu lahir kurang dari 2500 gram. Hasil: Di antara 281 bayi yang mempunyai catatan berat badan lahir terdapat 10,6% (23 bayi yang BBLR. Bayi yang tinggal di rumah tangga dengan perilaku pengelolaan sampah dengan cara dibakar dibandingkan dengan selain dibakar mempunyai risiko 2,3 kali lipat mengalami BBLR (RRa=2,28; 95% CI=1,18-8,61. Kesimpulan: Bayi yang tinggal di rumah tangga dengan sampah dibakar dibandingkan dengan tanpa sampah dibakar mempunyai risiko lebih tinggi BBLR di Provinsi Sulawesi Tengah, Indonesia. (Health Science Indones 2014;2:89-93Kata kunci: berat badan lahir rendah, pembakaran sampahAbstractBackground: The management of household waste by burning can affect the incidence of low birth weight (LBW. This paper aims to identify the burning of garbage at home and risk of low birth weight. Methods: This analysis used a part of Riskesdas 2013 data in the Central Sulawesi Province. Subjects analyzed were infants aged 0-11 months. Baby’s weight was based on the baby’s birth weightwhich was recorded in the questionnaire of Riskesdas. The infants were categorized as LBW, if the recorded birth weight was less than 2500 grams. Results: Out of 392 babies,  281 babies had recorded birth weightswhich could be proved by documentary evidence. The majority of babies were boys (50.9% and lived in rural areas (58.7%. The proportion of babies who had LBW was 10.6% (23 infants. The babies who were living in households with

Is violence associated with increased risk behavior among MSM? Evidence from a population-based survey conducted across nine cities in Central America.

Science.gov (United States)

Wheeler, Jennifer; Anfinson, Katherine; Valvert, Dennis; Lungo, Susana

2014-01-01

There is a dearth of research examining the linkages between violence and HIV risk behavior among men who have sex with men (MSM), including those who identify as transgender women (TW), particularly in Central America where violence is widespread. In this paper, we use population-based survey results to independently examine the correlations between physical, emotional and sexual violence and HIV risk behavior among MSM populations in five countries in Central America. As part of USAID's Combination Prevention for HIV program in Central America, PASMO conducted population based surveys using respondent-driven sampling (RDS) in nine cities in Guatemala, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama. Initial seeds were recruited using the following criteria: individuals who represented subgroups of MSM by self-identification (homosexual vs. heterosexual or bisexual vs. transgender), social economic strata, and by sex work practices. This study examines the association between violence and 1) HIV risk behaviors relevant to the study populations; 2) protective behaviors; and 3) reported STIs. Individualized RDS estimator weights for each outcome variable were calculated using RDSAT software, and logistic regression analysis was used to determine associations between different forms of violence and the outcome variables. MSM who experienced physical violence were more likely to be engaged in transactional sex (OR: 1.76 [1.42-2.18]), have multiple partners in the past 30 days (OR: 1.37 [1.09-1.71]), and have engaged in sex under the influence of alcohol or drugs (OR: 1.51 [1.24-1.83]). Both physical violence and psychological/verbal violence were also associated with reporting STI symptoms or diagnosis within the past 12 months (OR: 1.72 [1.34-2.21] and 1.80 [1.45-2.23]). The effects of violence on the outcomes were observed after controlling for other risk factors. Transgender women were 3.9 times more likely to report engaging in transactional sex. Respondents who

Is violence associated with increased risk behavior among MSM? Evidence from a population-based survey conducted across nine cities in Central America

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jennifer Wheeler

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Background/Objective: There is a dearth of research examining the linkages between violence and HIV risk behavior among men who have sex with men (MSM, including those who identify as transgender women (TW, particularly in Central America where violence is widespread. In this paper, we use population-based survey results to independently examine the correlations between physical, emotional and sexual violence and HIV risk behavior among MSM populations in five countries in Central America. Design: As part of USAID's Combination Prevention for HIV program in Central America, PASMO conducted population based surveys using respondent-driven sampling (RDS in nine cities in Guatemala, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama. Initial seeds were recruited using the following criteria: individuals who represented subgroups of MSM by self-identification (homosexual vs. heterosexual or bisexual vs. transgender, social economic strata, and by sex work practices. This study examines the association between violence and 1 HIV risk behaviors relevant to the study populations; 2 protective behaviors; and 3 reported STIs. Individualized RDS estimator weights for each outcome variable were calculated using RDSAT software, and logistic regression analysis was used to determine associations between different forms of violence and the outcome variables. Results: MSM who experienced physical violence were more likely to be engaged in transactional sex (OR: 1.76 [1.42–2.18], have multiple partners in the past 30 days (OR: 1.37 [1.09–1.71], and have engaged in sex under the influence of alcohol or drugs (OR: 1.51 [1.24–1.83]. Both physical violence and psychological/verbal violence were also associated with reporting STI symptoms or diagnosis within the past 12 months (OR: 1.72 [1.34–2.21] and 1.80 [1.45–2.23]. The effects of violence on the outcomes were observed after controlling for other risk factors. Transgender women were 3.9 times more likely

Comparing the Central Eight Risk Factors: Do They Differ Across Age Groups of Sex Offenders?

Science.gov (United States)

Wilpert, Julia; van Horn, Joan E; Boonmann, Cyril

2018-02-01

Following the risk-need-responsivity (RNR) model, cognitive-behavioral therapy is considered most effective in reducing recidivism when based on dynamic risk factors. As studies have found differences of these factors across age, exploring this seems beneficial. The current study investigates the Central Eight (C8) risk factors across six age groups of outpatient sex offenders ( N = 650). Results showed that recidivism rates and age were inversely related from 19 years and up. Half of the C8 did not predict general recidivism at all, substance abuse, antisocial cognition, antisocial associates, and history of antisocial behavior in only one or several age groups. However, factors differed between age groups, with the youngest group demonstrating the most dysfunction in several areas and the oldest group the least. It is concluded that the C8 risk factors seem to lose significance in the older age groups. Results may benefit targeting treatment goals.

[The unnecessary application of central venous catheterization in surgical patients].

Science.gov (United States)

Uemura, Keiko; Inoue, Satoki; Kawaguchi, Masahiko

2018-04-06

Perioperative physicians occasionally encounter situations where central venous catheters placed preoperatively turn out to be unnecessary. The purpose of this retrospective study is to identify the unnecessary application of central venous catheter placement and determine the factors associated with the unnecessary application of central venous catheter placement. Using data from institutional perioperative central venous catheter surveillance, we analysed data from 1,141 patients who underwent central venous catheter placement. We reviewed the central venous catheter registry and medical charts and allocated registered patients into those with the proper or with unnecessary application of central venous catheter according to standard indications. Multivariate analysis was used to identify factors associated with the unnecessary application of central venous catheter placement. In 107 patients, representing 9.38% of the overall population, we identified the unnecessary application of central venous catheter placement. Multivariate analysis identified emergencies at night or on holidays (odds ratio [OR] 2.109, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.021-4.359), low surgical risk (OR=1.729, 95% CI 1.038-2.881), short duration of anesthesia (OR=0.961/10min increase, 95% CI 0.945-0.979), and postoperative care outside of the intensive care unit (OR=2.197, 95% CI 1.402-3.441) all to be independently associated with the unnecessary application of catheterization. Complications related to central venous catheter placement when the procedure consequently turned out to be unnecessary were frequently observed (9/107) compared with when the procedure was necessary (40/1034) (p=0.032, OR=2.282, 95% CI 1.076-4.842). However, the subsequent multivariate logistic model did not hold this significant difference (p=0.0536, OR=2.115, 95% CI 0.988-4.526). More careful consideration for the application of central venous catheter is required in cases of emergency surgery at night or on

Probabilistic risk analysis for nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hauptmanns, U.

1988-01-01

Risk analysis is applied if the calculation of risk from observed failures is not possible, because events contributing substantially to risk are too seldom, as in the case of nuclear reactors. The process of analysis provides a number of benefits. Some of them are listed. After this by no means complete enumeration of possible benefits to be derived from a risk analysis. An outline of risk studiesd for PWR's with some comments on the models used are given. The presentation is indebted to the detailed treatment of the subject given in the PRA Procedures Guide. Thereafter some results of the German Risk Study, Phase B, which is under way are communicated. The paper concludes with some remarks on probabilistic considerations in licensing procedures. (orig./DG)

Centralization and decentralization in energy systems and associated risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rehm, W.; Schinner, F.; Kromp, W.

1998-01-01

Full text of publication follows: the concept of centralization/decentralization is - considering its widespread use - surprisingly ill-defined. Within the SERF-program (Socio Economic Research on Fusion) an attempt is made to clarify the complex issue of centralization/decentralization and to analyze its expected interaction with electricity production system in the case of nuclear fusion. Fusion research at the time is a multinational, highly centralized undertaking. As a result of this, and due to the expected large energy production units, it is generally expected that fusion will be embedded in a highly centralized, international energy supply system. The degree of centralization of an energy supply system, however, is believed to have for reaching consequences on the stability of the system, and beyond that, on decision making processes in energy policy, as well as democratic structures on the national or even international level. Internationalization might require control instruments that do not exist so far. Amongst other reservations, it is the possibly unwanted consequences of such a highly centralized, international energy supply system that limit acceptance of the fusion technology in the public. Therefore, centralization and decentralization trends of energy supply systems over the years are being looked at, to study their influence on the political and social systems (and vice-versa). In a first step, an attempt is made to classify centralization. Careful analyses and evaluation of available literature revealed a broad spectrum of different forms and degrees of centralization. Various parameters describing energy production and distribution are used. A differentiation of centralization on a technical and on an organizational level seems necessary, although they are not fully independent of each other. Beyond this, the choice of parameters must depend on the questions to be addressed. A new approach defining different levels and degrees of

Centralization and decentralization in energy systems and associated risks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rehm, W.; Schinner, F.; Kromp, W. [Vienna Univ., Institute of Risk Research, IRR (Austria)

1998-07-01

Full text of publication follows: the concept of centralization/decentralization is - considering its widespread use - surprisingly ill-defined. Within the SERF-program (Socio Economic Research on Fusion) an attempt is made to clarify the complex issue of centralization/decentralization and to analyze its expected interaction with electricity production system in the case of nuclear fusion. Fusion research at the time is a multinational, highly centralized undertaking. As a result of this, and due to the expected large energy production units, it is generally expected that fusion will be embedded in a highly centralized, international energy supply system. The degree of centralization of an energy supply system, however, is believed to have for reaching consequences on the stability of the system, and beyond that, on decision making processes in energy policy, as well as democratic structures on the national or even international level. Internationalization might require control instruments that do not exist so far. Amongst other reservations, it is the possibly unwanted consequences of such a highly centralized, international energy supply system that limit acceptance of the fusion technology in the public. Therefore, centralization and decentralization trends of energy supply systems over the years are being looked at, to study their influence on the political and social systems (and vice-versa). In a first step, an attempt is made to classify centralization. Careful analyses and evaluation of available literature revealed a broad spectrum of different forms and degrees of centralization. Various parameters describing energy production and distribution are used. A differentiation of centralization on a technical and on an organizational level seems necessary, although they are not fully independent of each other. Beyond this, the choice of parameters must depend on the questions to be addressed. A new approach defining different levels and degrees of

Single-shell tank interim stabilization risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Basche, A.D.

1998-01-01

The purpose of the Single-Shell Tank (SST) Interim Stabilization Risk Analysis is to provide a cost and schedule risk analysis of HNF-2358, Rev. 1, Single-Shell Tank Interim Stabilization Project Plan (Project Plan) (Ross et al. 1998). The analysis compares the required cost profile by fiscal year (Section 4.2) and revised schedule completion date (Section 4.5) to the Project Plan. The analysis also evaluates the executability of the Project Plan and recommends a path forward for risk mitigation

Seismic risk assessment and application in the central United States

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Z.

2011-01-01

Seismic risk is a somewhat subjective, but important, concept in earthquake engineering and other related decision-making. Another important concept that is closely related to seismic risk is seismic hazard. Although seismic hazard and seismic risk have often been used interchangeably, they are fundamentally different: seismic hazard describes the natural phenomenon or physical property of an earthquake, whereas seismic risk describes the probability of loss or damage that could be caused by a seismic hazard. The distinction between seismic hazard and seismic risk is of practical significance because measures for seismic hazard mitigation may differ from those for seismic risk reduction. Seismic risk assessment is a complicated process and starts with seismic hazard assessment. Although probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is the most widely used method for seismic hazard assessment, recent studies have found that PSHA is not scientifically valid. Use of PSHA will lead to (1) artifact estimates of seismic risk, (2) misleading use of the annual probability of exccedance (i.e., the probability of exceedance in one year) as a frequency (per year), and (3) numerical creation of extremely high ground motion. An alternative approach, which is similar to those used for flood and wind hazard assessments, has been proposed. ?? 2011 ASCE.

Multiple Sclerosis Increases Fracture Risk: A Meta-Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Guixian Dong

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Purpose. The association between multiple sclerosis (MS and fracture risk has been reported, but results of previous studies remain controversial and ambiguous. To assess the association between MS and fracture risk, a meta-analysis was performed. Method. Based on comprehensive searches of the PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science, we identified outcome data from all articles estimating the association between MS and fracture risk. The pooled risk ratios (RRs with 95% confidence intervals (CIs were calculated. Results. A significant association between MS and fracture risk was found. This result remained statistically significant when the adjusted RRs were combined. Subgroup analysis stratified by the site of fracture suggested significant associations between MS and tibia fracture risk, femur fracture risk, hip fracture risk, pelvis fracture risk, vertebrae fracture risk, and humerus fracture risk. In the subgroup analysis by gender, female MS patients had increased fracture risk. When stratified by history of drug use, use of antidepressants, hypnotics/anxiolytics, anticonvulsants, and glucocorticoids increased the risk of fracture risk in MS patients. Conclusions. This meta-analysis demonstrated that MS was significantly associated with fracture risk.

Correspondence: risk factors of acute respiratory infection in under-fives in a rural hospital of Central India – Authors’ reply

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amar Taksande

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Dear Editor,We thank the authors for their interest and comments on our paper. They have raised some very valid points. This corrispondence refers to the following article:Taksande AM, Yeole M. Risk factors of Acute Respiratory Infection (ARI in under-fives in a rural hospital of Central India. J Pediatr Neonat Individual Med. 2016;5(1:e050105. doi: 10.7363/050105 br />Comments can be found in the following article:Mandal A, Sahi PK. Correspondence: risk factors of acute respiratory infection in under-fives in a rural hospital of Central India. J Pediatr Neonat Individual Med. 2016;5(2:e050207. doi: 10.7363/050207

Data-driven risk identification in phase III clinical trials using central statistical monitoring.

Science.gov (United States)

Timmermans, Catherine; Venet, David; Burzykowski, Tomasz

2016-02-01

Our interest lies in quality control for clinical trials, in the context of risk-based monitoring (RBM). We specifically study the use of central statistical monitoring (CSM) to support RBM. Under an RBM paradigm, we claim that CSM has a key role to play in identifying the "risks to the most critical data elements and processes" that will drive targeted oversight. In order to support this claim, we first see how to characterize the risks that may affect clinical trials. We then discuss how CSM can be understood as a tool for providing a set of data-driven key risk indicators (KRIs), which help to organize adaptive targeted monitoring. Several case studies are provided where issues in a clinical trial have been identified thanks to targeted investigation after the identification of a risk using CSM. Using CSM to build data-driven KRIs helps to identify different kinds of issues in clinical trials. This ability is directly linked with the exhaustiveness of the CSM approach and its flexibility in the definition of the risks that are searched for when identifying the KRIs. In practice, a CSM assessment of the clinical database seems essential to ensure data quality. The atypical data patterns found in some centers and variables are seen as KRIs under a RBM approach. Targeted monitoring or data management queries can be used to confirm whether the KRIs point to an actual issue or not.

The Relationship between High Risk for Obstructive Sleep Apnea and General and Central Obesity: Findings from a Sample of Chilean College Students

OpenAIRE

Wosu, Adaeze C.; Vélez, Juan Carlos; Barbosa, Clarita; Andrade, Asterio; Frye, Megan; Chen, Xiaoli; Gelaye, Bizu; Williams, Michelle A.

2014-01-01

This cross-sectional study evaluates the prevalence and extent to which high risk for obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is associated with general obesity and central obesity among college students in Punta Arenas, Chile. Risk for OSA was assessed using the Berlin Questionnaire and trained research nurses measured anthropometric indices. Overweight was defined as body mass index (BMI) of 25–29.9 kg/m2 and general obesity was defined as BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2. Central obesity was defined as waist circumfe...

Risk assessment of pet-traded decapod crustaceans in the Republic of Kazakhstan, the leading country in Central Asia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Uderbayev Talgat

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The pet trade with decapod crustaceans has been considered one of the main pathway of introduction of these animals worldwide. As the leading markets in this regards are the Czech Republic, Germany and the USA. Central Asia is not perceived as an important market with ornamental decapod crustaceans. Despite this assumption, we found at least 16 species of freshwater shrimp, crayfish and crab species pet-traded in the Republic of Kazakhstan, the largest country in this region. Considering computed risk assessment, the origin of particular species, their availability on the market, the probability of establishment and further aspects, we identified two crayfish Procambarus clarkii and Procambarus fallax f. virginalis being the seriously hazardous taxa with high potential to threaten native crayfish species as well as inhabited ecosystems. To prevent their introductions and to minimize the risks of mentioned species, similarly as in the case of European Union, we recommend the total ban of import, trade and keeping of these high-risk taxa within Central Asia.

Numerical analysis of modified Central Solenoid insert design

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Khodak, Andrei, E-mail: akhodak@pppl.gov [Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ (United States); Martovetsky, Nicolai; Smirnov, Aleksandre [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Titus, Peter [Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ (United States)

2015-10-15

Highlights: • Modified design of coil for testing ITER superconducting cable is presented. • Numerical analysis allowed design verification. • Three-dimensional current sharing temperature distributions are obtained from the results. - Abstract: The United States ITER Project Office (USIPO) is responsible for fabrication of the Central Solenoid (CS) for ITER project. The ITER machine is currently under construction by seven parties in Cadarache, France. The CS Insert (CSI) project should provide a verification of the conductor performance in relevant conditions of temperature, field, currents and mechanical strain. The US IPO designed the CSI that will be tested at the Central Solenoid Model Coil (CSMC) Test Facility at JAEA, Naka. To validate the modified design three-dimensional numerical simulations were performed using coupled solver for simultaneous structural, thermal and electromagnetic analysis. Thermal and electromagnetic simulations supported structural calculations providing necessary loads and strains. According to current analysis design of the modified coil satisfies ITER magnet structural design criteria for the following conditions: (1) room temperature, no current, (2) temperature 4 K, no current, (3) temperature 4 K, current 60 kA direct charge, and (4) temperature 4 K, current 60 kA reverse charge. Fatigue life assessment analysis is performed for the alternating conditions of: temperature 4 K, no current, and temperature 4 K, current 45 kA direct charge. Results of fatigue analysis show that parts of the coil assembly can be qualified for up to 1 million cycles. Distributions of the Current Sharing Temperature (TCS) in the superconductor were obtained from numerical results using parameterization of the critical surface in the form similar to that proposed for ITER. Special ADPL scripts were developed for ANSYS allowing one-dimensional representation of TCS along the cable, as well as three-dimensional fields of TCS in superconductor

Respiratory virus infection and risk of invasive meningococcal disease in central Ontario, Canada.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ashleigh R Tuite

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: In temperate climates, invasive meningococcal disease (IMD incidence tends to coincide with or closely follow peak incidence of influenza virus infection; at a seasonal level, increased influenza activity frequently correlates with increased seasonal risk of IMD. METHODS: We evaluated 240 cases of IMD reported in central Ontario, Canada, from 2000 to 2006. Associations between environmental and virological (influenza A, influenza B and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV exposures and IMD incidence were evaluated using negative binomial regression models controlling for seasonal oscillation. Acute effects of weekly respiratory virus activity on IMD risk were evaluated using a matched-period case-crossover design with random directionality of control selection. Effects were estimated using conditional logistic regression. RESULTS: Multivariable negative binomial regression identified elevated IMD risk with increasing influenza A activity (per 100 case increase, incidence rate ratio = 1.18, 95% confidence interval (CI: 1.06, 1.31. In case-crossover models, increasing weekly influenza A activity was associated with an acute increase in the risk of IMD (per 100 case increase, odds ratio (OR  = 2.03, 95% CI: 1.28 to 3.23. Increasing weekly RSV activity was associated with increased risk of IMD after adjusting for RSV activity in the previous 3 weeks (per 100 case increase, OR = 4.31, 95% CI: 1.14, 16.32. No change in disease risk was seen with increasing influenza B activity. CONCLUSIONS: We have identified an acute effect of influenza A and RSV activity on IMD risk. If confirmed, these finding suggest that influenza vaccination may have the indirect benefit of reducing IMD risk.

Incidence, risk factors and outcome of nosocomial pneumonia in patients with central nervous system infections

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gajović Olgica

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Introduction. Pneumonia is the most frequent nosocomial infection in intensive care units. The reported frequency varies with definition, the type of hospital or intensive care units and the population of patients. The incidence ranges from 6.8-27%. Objective. The objective of this study was to determine the frequency, risk factors and mortality of nosocomial pneumonia in intensive care patients. Methods. We analyzed retrospectively and prospectively the collected data of 180 patients with central nervous system infections who needed to stay in the intensive care unit for more than 48 hours. This study was conducted from 2003 to 2009 at the Clinical Centre of Kragujevac. Results. During the study period, 54 (30% patients developed nosocomial pneumonia. The time to develop pneumonia was 10±6 days. We found that the following risk factors for the development of nosocomial pneumonia were statistically significant: age, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS score <9, mechanical ventilation, duration of mechanical ventilation, tracheostomy, presence of nasogastric tube and enteral feeding. The most commonly isolated pathogens were Klebsiella-Enterobacter spp. (33.3%, Pseudomonas aeruginosa (24.1%, Acinetobacter spp. (16.6% and Staphylococcus aureus (25.9%. Conclusion. Nosocomial pneumonia is the major cause of morbidity and mortality of patients with central nervous system infections. Patients on mechanical ventilation are particularly at a high risk. The mortality rate of patients with nosocomial pneumonia was 54.4% and it was five times higher than in patients without pneumonia.

38 CFR 75.115 - Risk analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Risk analysis. 75.115 Section 75.115 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS (CONTINUED) INFORMATION SECURITY MATTERS Data Breaches § 75.115 Risk analysis. If a data breach involving sensitive personal information that is processed or...

Common approach of risks analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Noviello, L.; Naviglio, A.

1996-01-01

Although, following the resolutions of the High German Court, the protection level of the human beings is an objective which can change in time, it is obvious that it is an important point when there is a risk for the population. This is true more particularly for the industrial plants whose possible accidents could affect the population. The accidents risk analysis indicates that there is no conceptual difference between the risks of a nuclear power plant and those of the other industrial plants as chemical plants, the gas distribution system and the hydraulic dams. A legislation analysis induced by the Seveso Directive for the industrial risks give some important indications which should always be followed. This work analyses more particularly the legislative situation in different European countries and identifies some of the most important characteristics. Indeed, for most of the countries, the situation is different and it is a later difficulties source for nuclear power plants. In order to strengthen this reasoning, this paper presents some preliminary results of an analysis of a nuclear power plant following the approach of other industrial plants. In conclusion, it will be necessary to analyse again the risks assessment approach for nuclear power plants because the real protection level of human beings in a country is determined by the less regulated of the dangerous industrial plants existing at the surroundings. (O.M.)

Standardised risk analysis as a communication tool

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pluess, Ch.; Montanarini, M.; Bernauer, M.

1998-01-01

Full text of publication follows: several European countries require a risk analysis for the production, storage or transport a dangerous goods. This requirement imposes considerable administrative effort for some sectors of the industry. In order to minimize the effort of such studies, a generic risk analysis for an industrial sector proved to help. Standardised procedures can consequently be derived for efficient performance of the risk investigations. This procedure was successfully established in Switzerland for natural gas transmission lines and fossil fuel storage plants. The development process of the generic risk analysis involved an intense discussion between industry and authorities about methodology of assessment and the criteria of acceptance. This process finally led to scientific consistent modelling tools for risk analysis and to an improved communication from the industry to the authorities and the public. As a recent example, the Holland-Italy natural gas transmission pipeline is demonstrated, where this method was successfully employed. Although this pipeline traverses densely populated areas in Switzerland, using this established communication method, the risk problems could be solved without delaying the planning process. (authors)

Introduction of the risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Campon, G.; Martinez, I.

2013-01-01

An introduction of risks analysis was given in the exposition which main issues were: food innocuousness, world, regional and national food context,change of paradigms, health definition, risk, codex, standardization, food chain role, trade agreement, codex alimentarius, food transmission diseases cost impact

Probabilistic Analysis of Failures Mechanisms of Large Dams

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Shams Ghahfarokhi, G.

2014-01-01

Risk and reliability analysis is presently being performed in almost all fields of engineering depending upon the specific field and its particular area. Probabilistic risk analysis (PRA), also called quantitative risk analysis (QRA) is a central feature of hydraulic engineering structural design.

Risk Analysis Group annual progress report 1984

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1985-06-01

The activities of the Risk Analysis Group at Risoe during 1984 are presented. These include descriptions in some detail of work on general development topics and risk analysis performed as contractor. (author)

Risk Factors Related to Peripherally Inserted Central Venous Catheter Nonselective Removal in Neonates

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiaohe Yu

2018-01-01

Full Text Available We aimed to investigate the incidence and risk factors associated with nonselective removal of peripherally inserted central venous catheter (PICC in neonates. In this prospective cohort study, neonates who underwent PICC placement at neonatal intensive care units (NICUs in China from October 2012 to November 2015 were included. The patient demographics, catheter characteristics, catheter duration, PICC insertion site, indication for PICC insertion, infuscate composition, PICC tip location, and catheter complications were recorded in a computerized database. Risk factors for nonselective removal were analyzed. A total of 497 PICCs were placed in 496 neonates. Nonselective removal occurred in 9.3% of PICCs during 10,540 catheter-days (4.6 nonselective removals per 1,000 catheter-days. These included occlusion (3%, infection (1.4%, leakage (2.0%, phlebitis (0.6%, displacement (1%, pleural effusion(0.6%, and breaks (0.6%. Noncentral tip position was independently associated with an increased risk of nonselective removal (odds ratio 2.621; 95% confidence interval, 1.258-5.461 after adjusting for gestational age, sex, birth weight, and PICC dwell time. No significant differences in the rate of complications occurred between silastic and polyurethane PICC or different insertion sites. Noncentral PICC tip position was the only independent risk factor for nonselective removal of PICC.

Circulating serovars of Leptospira in cart horses of central and southern Ethiopia and associated risk factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Tsegay, K; Potts, A D; Aklilu, N; Lötter, C; Gummow, B

2016-03-01

Little work has been done on diseases of horses in Ethiopia or tropical regions of the world. Yet, Ethiopia has the largest horse population in Africa and their horses play a pivotal role in their economy as traction animals. A serological and questionnaire survey was therefore conducted to determine the circulating serovars of Leptospira and their association with potential risk factors in the cart horse population of Central and Southern Ethiopia. A total of 184 out of 418 cart horses from 13 districts had antibody titres of 1:100 or greater to at least one of 16 serovars of Leptospira species in Central and Southern Ethiopian horses. A significantly higher seropositivity (62.1%) was noted in horses from the highland agroecology followed by midland (44.4%) and lowland (39.8%). Serovar Bratislava (34.5%) was the predominant serovar followed by serovars Djasiman (9.8%), Topaz (5.98%) and Pomona (5.3%). Age and location proved to be associated with seropositive horses with older horses being more commonly affected and the districts of Ziway (Batu) (Apparent Prevalence (AP)=65.5%), Shashemene (AP=48.3%) and Sebeta (AP=41.4%) having the highest prevalence. Multivariable logistic regression found risk factors significantly associated with Leptospira seropositive horses were drinking river water (OR=2.8) and horses 7-12 years old (OR=5) and risk factors specifically associated with serovar Bratislava seropositive horses were drinking river water (OR=2.5), horses ≥13 years (OR=3.5) and the presence of dogs in adjacent neighbouring properties (OR=0.3). Dogs had a protective effect against seropositivity to serovars Bratislava and Djasiman, which may be due to their ability to control rodents. The high seroprevalence confirm that leptospirosis is endemic among horses of Central and Southern Ethiopia. The predominance of serovar Bratislava supports the idea that serovar Bratislava may be adapted to and maintained by the horse population of Central and Southern Ethiopia

Central Waste Complex (CWC) Waste Analysis Plan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

ELLEFSON, M.D.

2000-01-01

The purpose of this waste analysis plan (WAP) is to document the waste acceptance process, sampling methodologies, analytical techniques, and overall processes that are undertaken for waste accepted for storage at the Central Waste Complex (CWC), which is located in the 200 West Area of the Hanford Facility, Richland, Washington. Because dangerous waste does not include the source special nuclear and by-product material components of mixed waste, radionuclides are not within the scope of this document. The information on radionuclides is provided only for general knowledge. This document has been revised to meet the interim status waste analysis plan requirements of Washington Administrative Code (WAC) 173 303-300(5). When the final status permit is issued, permit conditions will be incorporated and this document will be revised accordingly

Superiority of centralized procurement and its technical and economic analysis for nuclear power intensification construction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Feng

2010-01-01

The intensified management is the basic orientation for modernized enterprise group to improve efficiency and benefit. For most industrial enterprises, in the implementation of intensification management process, the centralized procurement is one of most efficient paths. At present most of the international's and domestic outstanding enterprises are studying and positively using this approach. This article indicated that the centralized procurement mode is inevitable during intensification construction process based on the theoretical analysis of the advantage of centralized procurement and the economic analysis of typical cases. (author)

Geo-risk in Central Africa: integrating multi-hazards and vulnerability to support risk management

Science.gov (United States)

Kervyn, Francois; Nicolas, d'Oreye; Haventith, Hans-Balder; Kervyn, Matthieu; Caroline, Michellier; Trefon, Theodore; Wolff, Eleonore

2013-04-01

In some places, geo-hazards are a major concern for population, the assets, and the economy. This is especially the case in the East African Rift (EAR), where high volcanic and tectonic activities are sometimes coupled with geopolitical issues and dense population as in the Kivu rift area. That area is one of the most densely populated regions of Central Africa and is affected by decades of political instability and subsequent humanitarian crisis. In that region, geo-hazards are poorly assessed despite the numerous recent and historical events. Moreover, the relief of the rift also corresponds in this area to the main political boundaries, which complicates the coordination and the management of geo-hazards monitoring networks and related mitigation measures. Based on the experience acquired through several projects focused on hazard assessment and reinforcement of local monitoring capacity, the GeoRisCA project is addressing the assessment of the global risk related to the major geohazards that affect the region. Taking into account the identified factors, GeoRisCA's objective is to assess the risk from multi geohazards in a region which is subject to many (possibly combined) disasters every year and which could undergo a large impact disaster in the coming years. At regional scale, the high seismicity and the volcanic activity are the most important concerns. Possible eruptions of lethal gas in certain area around Goma, and the large number of reported and likely future mass movements as well as site-specific seismic amplification effects increase the danger at local scale. As both human lives and specific ecosystems are under threat, comprehensive methodologies are required to reliably assess multi geohazards over both short and long terms and to clearly outline and map related risk. These tools are needed by local and regional authorities as well as local and international stakeholders in management and mitigation processes. Developed methodologies in Geo

Risk-based decision analysis for groundwater operable units

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chiaramonte, G.R.

1995-01-01

This document proposes a streamlined approach and methodology for performing risk assessment in support of interim remedial measure (IRM) decisions involving the remediation of contaminated groundwater on the Hanford Site. This methodology, referred to as ''risk-based decision analysis,'' also supports the specification of target cleanup volumes and provides a basis for design and operation of the groundwater remedies. The risk-based decision analysis can be completed within a short time frame and concisely documented. The risk-based decision analysis is more versatile than the qualitative risk assessment (QRA), because it not only supports the need for IRMs, but also provides criteria for defining the success of the IRMs and provides the risk-basis for decisions on final remedies. For these reasons, it is proposed that, for groundwater operable units, the risk-based decision analysis should replace the more elaborate, costly, and time-consuming QRA

Stereotactic body radiotherapy for centrally located stage I NSCLC. A multicenter analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schanne, Daniel H.; Nestle, Ursula; Grosu, Anca L. [Universitaetsklinik Freiburg, Klinik fuer Strahlenheilkunde, Freiburg (Germany); Allgaeuer, Michael [Barmherzige Brueder, Klinik fuer Strahlentherapie, Regensburg (Germany); Andratschke, Nicolaus; Molls, Michael [TU Muenchen, Klinik und Poliklinik fuer Strahlentherapie und Radiologische Onkologie, Muenchen (Germany); Appold, Steffen [Universitaetsklinikum Dresden, Klinik und Poliklinik fuer Strahlentherapie und Radioonkologie, Dresden (Germany); Dieckmann, Ute [Allgemeines Krankenhaus Wien, Univ. Klinik fuer Strahlentherapie, Wien (Austria); Ernst, Iris [Universitaetsklinikum Muenster, Klinik fuer Strahlentherapie, Muenster (Germany); Ganswindt, Ute [LMU Muenchen, Klinik und Poliklinik fuer Strahlentherapie und Radioonkologie, Muenchen (Germany); Holy, Richard [Universitaetsklinikum Aachen, Klinik fuer Strahlentherapie, Aachen (Germany); Nevinny-Stickel, Meinhard [Medizinischen Universitaet Innsbruck, Univ. Klinik fuer Strahlentherapie und Radioonkologie, Innsbruck (Austria); Semrau, Sabine [Universitaetsklinikum Erlangen, Strahlenklinik Erlangen, Erlangen (Germany); Sterzing, Florian [Universitaetsklinikum Heidelberg, Klinik fuer Radioonkologie und Strahlentherapie, Heidelberg (Germany); Wittig, Andrea [Philipps-Universitaet Marburg, Klinik fuer Strahlentherapie und Radioonkologie, Marburg (Germany); Guckenberger, Matthias [Universitaet Wuerzburg, Klinik und Poliklinik fuer Strahlentherapie, Wuerzburg (Germany)

2014-08-27

The purpose of this work is to analyze patterns of care and outcome after stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) for centrally located, early-stage, non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and to address the question of potential risk for increased toxicity in this entity. A total of 90 patients with centrally located NSCLC were identified among 613 cases in a database of 13 German and Austrian academic radiotherapy centers. The outcome of centrally located NSCLC was compared to that of cases with peripheral tumor location from the same database. Patients with central tumors most commonly presented with UICC stage IB (50 %), while the majority of peripheral lesions were stage IA (56 %). Average tumor diameters were 3.3 cm (central) and 2.8 cm (peripheral). Staging PET/CT was available for 73 and 74 % of peripheral and central tumors, respectively. Biopsy was performed in 84 % (peripheral) and 88 % (central) of cases. Doses varied significantly between central and peripheral lesions with a median BED{sub 10} of 72 Gy and 84 Gy, respectively (p < 0.001). Fractionation differed as well with medians of 5 (central) and 3 (peripheral) fractions (p < 0.001). In the Kaplan-Meier analysis, 3-year actuarial overall survival was 29 % (central) and 51 % (peripheral; p = 0.004) and freedom from local progression was 52 % (central) and 84 % (peripheral; p < 0.001). Toxicity after treatment of central tumors was low with no grade III/IV and one grade V event. Mortality rates were 0 and 1 % after 30 and 60 days, respectively. Local tumor control in patients treated with SBRT for centrally located, early-stage NSCLC was favorable, provided ablative radiation doses were prescribed. This was, however, not the case in the majority of patients, possibly due to concerns about treatment-related toxicity. Reported toxicity was low, but prospective trials are needed to resolve the existing uncertainties and to establish safe high-dose regimens for this cohort of patients. (orig.) [German] Ziel

An attempt to understand glioma stem cell biology through centrality analysis of a protein interaction network.

Science.gov (United States)

Mallik, Mrinmay Kumar

2018-02-07

Biological networks can be analyzed using "Centrality Analysis" to identify the more influential nodes and interactions in the network. This study was undertaken to create and visualize a biological network comprising of protein-protein interactions (PPIs) amongst proteins which are preferentially over-expressed in glioma cancer stem cell component (GCSC) of glioblastomas as compared to the glioma non-stem cancer cell (GNSC) component and then to analyze this network through centrality analyses (CA) in order to identify the essential proteins in this network and their interactions. In addition, this study proposes a new centrality analysis method pertaining exclusively to transcription factors (TFs) and interactions amongst them. Moreover the relevant molecular functions, biological processes and biochemical pathways amongst these proteins were sought through enrichment analysis. A protein interaction network was created using a list of proteins which have been shown to be preferentially expressed or over-expressed in GCSCs isolated from glioblastomas as compared to the GNSCs. This list comprising of 38 proteins, created using manual literature mining, was submitted to the Reactome FIViz tool, a web based application integrated into Cytoscape, an open source software platform for visualizing and analyzing molecular interaction networks and biological pathways to produce the network. This network was subjected to centrality analyses utilizing ranked lists of six centrality measures using the FIViz application and (for the first time) a dedicated centrality analysis plug-in ; CytoNCA. The interactions exclusively amongst the transcription factors were nalyzed through a newly proposed centrality analysis method called "Gene Expression Associated Degree Centrality Analysis (GEADCA)". Enrichment analysis was performed using the "network function analysis" tool on Reactome. The CA was able to identify a small set of proteins with consistently high centrality ranks that

How to Perform an Ethical Risk Analysis (eRA).

Science.gov (United States)

Hansson, Sven Ove

2018-02-26

Ethical analysis is often needed in the preparation of policy decisions on risk. A three-step method is proposed for performing an ethical risk analysis (eRA). In the first step, the people concerned are identified and categorized in terms of the distinct but compatible roles of being risk-exposed, a beneficiary, or a decisionmaker. In the second step, a more detailed classification of roles and role combinations is performed, and ethically problematic role combinations are identified. In the third step, further ethical deliberation takes place, with an emphasis on individual risk-benefit weighing, distributional analysis, rights analysis, and power analysis. Ethical issues pertaining to subsidiary risk roles, such as those of experts and journalists, are also treated in this phase. An eRA should supplement, not replace, a traditional risk analysis that puts emphasis on the probabilities and severities of undesirable events but does not cover ethical issues such as agency, interpersonal relationships, and justice. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

Secondary infiltration of the central nervous system in patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Talita Maira Bueno da Silveira da Rocha

2013-01-01

Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To investigate the incidence and risk factors of infiltration of the central nervous system after the initial treatment of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma in patients treated at Santa Casa de Misericórdia de São Paulo. METHODS: A total of 133 patients treated for diffuse large B-cell lymphoma from January 2001 to April 2008 were retrospectively analyzed in respect to the incidence and risk factors of secondary central nervous system involvement of lymphoma. Intrathecal prophylaxis was not a standard procedure for patients considered to be at risk. This analysis includes patients whether they received rituximab as first-line treatment or not. RESULTS: Nine of 133 (6.7% patients developed central nervous system disease after a mean observation time of 29 months. The median time to relapse or progression was 7.9 months after diagnosis and all but one patient died despite the treatment administered. Twenty-six (19.5% patients of this cohort received rituximab as first-line treatment and nine (7.1% received intrathecal chemoprophylaxis. Of the nine patients that relapsed, seven (77.7% had parenchymal central nervous system involvement; seven (77.7% had stage III or IV disease; one (11.1% had bone marrow involvement; two (22.2% had received intrathecal chemoprophylaxis; and 3 (33.3% had taken rituximab. In a multivariate analysis, the risk factors for this infiltration were being male, previous use of intrathecal chemotherapy and patients that were refractory to initial treatment. CONCLUSION: Central nervous system infiltration in this cohort is similar to that of previous reports in the literature. As this was a small cohort with a rare event, only three risk factors were important for this infiltration

RISK ANALYSIS IN INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY AND COMMUNICATION OUTSOURCING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Edmir Parada Vasques Prado

2011-12-01

Full Text Available This research aims at evaluating the risk analysis process in Information Technology and Communication (ICT outsourcing conducted by organizations of the private sector. The research is characterized by being a descriptive, quantitative and transversal type study, which was used the survey method. Data were collected through questionnaire, the sample is not random and we used a convenience sampling process. The research made contributions to understanding the risk analysis process in ICT services outsourcing, and identified statistically significant relationships between risk analysis, organization's size and its industry, and between risk analysis and diversity of outsourced services

Wavelet Analysis of Central European Stock Market Behaviour During the Crisis

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Baruník, Jozef; Vácha, Lukáš

2009-01-01

Roč. 2009, č. 23 (2009), s. 1-14 R&D Projects: GA ČR GP402/08/P207; GA ČR GD402/09/H045 Grant - others:GAUK(CZ) 46108 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : wavelet analysis * multiresolution analysis * Central European stock markets * financial crisis Subject RIV: AH - Economics

Risk-benefit analysis and public policy: a bibliography

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Clark, E.M.; Van Horn, A.J.

1976-11-01

Risk-benefit analysis has been implicitly practiced whenever decision-makers are confronted with decisions involving risks to life, health, or to the environment. Various methodologies have been developed to evaluate relevant criteria and to aid in assessing the impacts of alternative projects. Among these have been cost-benefit analysis, which has been widely used for project evaluation. However, in many cases it has been difficult to assign dollar costs to those criteria involving risks and benefits which are not now assigned explicit monetary values in our economic system. Hence, risk-benefit analysis has evolved to become more than merely an extension of cost-benefit analysis, and many methods have been applied to examine the trade-offs between risks and benefits. In addition, new scientific and statistical techniques have been developed for assessing current and future risks. The 950 references included in this bibliography are meant to suggest the breadth of those methodologies which have been applied to decisions involving risk.

Risk-benefit analysis and public policy: a bibliography

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clark, E.M.; Van Horn, A.J.

1976-11-01

Risk-benefit analysis has been implicitly practiced whenever decision-makers are confronted with decisions involving risks to life, health, or to the environment. Various methodologies have been developed to evaluate relevant criteria and to aid in assessing the impacts of alternative projects. Among these have been cost-benefit analysis, which has been widely used for project evaluation. However, in many cases it has been difficult to assign dollar costs to those criteria involving risks and benefits which are not now assigned explicit monetary values in our economic system. Hence, risk-benefit analysis has evolved to become more than merely an extension of cost-benefit analysis, and many methods have been applied to examine the trade-offs between risks and benefits. In addition, new scientific and statistical techniques have been developed for assessing current and future risks. The 950 references included in this bibliography are meant to suggest the breadth of those methodologies which have been applied to decisions involving risk

ANALYSIS OF HOW YOU MANAGE RISK IN THE BANK BANCPOST S.A.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rodica Pripoaie

2008-05-01

Full Text Available Risk management within Bancpost is a decentralized process guided by policies andprocedures laid down centrally. Within the bank there are five major organizational groups involved inthe process of risk management. These groups are responsible for defining, implementing and / orrevision of policies, regulations and procedures for risk management of the bank:1. Board of Directors;2. Executive Committee and heads of bank;3. The Risk Management;4. Internal Audit;5. Business units (branches, agencies, working points.

Risk analysis and evaluation of agricultural drought disaster in the major grain-producing areas, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zongtang Xie

2016-09-01

Full Text Available The analysis and evaluation of agricultural drought risk can assist in reducing regional disasters and agricultural drought losses. Because of the uncertainties and incomplete agricultural drought information, this paper employed an information diffusion technology and information matrix to identify a drought disaster risk distribution and to quantify the relationship between the annual drought-affected rate and the grain production losses in China's major grain-producing areas. From the assessment results, provincial drought disaster risk spatial distribution maps for each major grain-producing area in China were obtained. These risk patterns showed that the probability of drought fell when the annual drought-covered rate and the annual drought-affected rate increased, and that the high risk areas were located primarily in China's northern and central provinces. These results can provide the basis for the development of effective drought mitigation strategies which would be able to inform possible drought situations and allow for easier decision-making on drought resistance strategies. The fuzzy relationship between the annual drought-affected rate and the drought-caused grain production losses provides vital information for the development of disaster compensation plans. Furthermore, the results of this study indicated that the proposed methods had superior detection stability and higher precision. We hope that by conducting such agricultural drought risk analysis, the results are able to provide the basis for the development of drought mitigation strategies to reduce future losses.

Chances and risks in the future E and P of Eastern-Central Europe (ECE)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dobrova, H.; Kolly, E. [IHS Energy, Geneva (Switzerland); Schmitz, U. [LO and G Consultants, Essen (Germany)

2006-03-15

Eastern-Central Europe is a mature region in terms of hydrocarbon exploration and production. Its oil and gas reserves and production are in decline. Reserves replacement requires the identification of new opportunities. Several opportunities are being reviewed for their volume potential and economic viability and, in particular, for their chances and risks. Adequate opportunities in this respect are exploration for hydrocarbons in the region's thrust belts, the drilling of offshore plays of the Black Sea, and the delivery of smaller gas reserves to spot markets and/or independent power plants. The latter opportunities require the implementation of new approaches. As to the exploration-driven opportunities, risk lowering will obviously be achieved by the application of 3D seismic. Several of the identified opportunities will require substantial financial exposure. (orig.)

Methods for Risk Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alverbro, Karin

2010-01-01

Many decision-making situations today affect humans and the environment. In practice, many such decisions are made without an overall view and prioritise one or other of the two areas. Now and then these two areas of regulation come into conflict, e.g. the best alternative as regards environmental considerations is not always the best from a human safety perspective and vice versa. This report was prepared within a major project with the aim of developing a framework in which both the environmental aspects and the human safety aspects are integrated, and decisions can be made taking both fields into consideration. The safety risks have to be analysed in order to be successfully avoided and one way of doing this is to use different kinds of risk analysis methods. There is an abundance of existing methods to choose from and new methods are constantly being developed. This report describes some of the risk analysis methods currently available for analysing safety and examines the relationships between them. The focus here is mainly on human safety aspects

Peripheral Edema, Central Venous Pressure, and Risk of AKI in Critical Illness

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Kenneth P.; Cavender, Susan; Lee, Joon; Feng, Mengling; Mark, Roger G.; Celi, Leo Anthony; Mukamal, Kenneth J.

2016-01-01

Background and objectives Although venous congestion has been linked to renal dysfunction in heart failure, its significance in a broader context has not been investigated. Design, setting, participants, & measurements Using an inception cohort of 12,778 critically ill adult patients admitted to an urban tertiary medical center between 2001 and 2008, we examined whether the presence of peripheral edema on admission physical examination was associated with an increased risk of AKI within the first 7 days of critical illness. In addition, in those with admission central venous pressure (CVP) measurements, we examined the association of CVPs with subsequent AKI. AKI was defined using the Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes criteria. Results Of the 18% (n=2338) of patients with peripheral edema on admission, 27% (n=631) developed AKI, compared with 16% (n=1713) of those without peripheral edema. In a model that included adjustment for comorbidities, severity of illness, and the presence of pulmonary edema, peripheral edema was associated with a 30% higher risk of AKI (95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.15 to 1.46; Pedema was not significantly related to risk. Peripheral edema was also associated with a 13% higher adjusted risk of a higher AKI stage (95% CI, 1.07 to 1.20; Pedema were associated with 34% (95% CI, 1.10 to 1.65), 17% (95% CI, 0.96 to 1.14), 47% (95% CI, 1.18 to 1.83), and 57% (95% CI, 1.07 to 2.31) higher adjusted risk of AKI, respectively, compared with edema-free patients. In the 4761 patients with admission CVP measurements, each 1 cm H2O higher CVP was associated with a 2% higher adjusted risk of AKI (95% CI, 1.00 to 1.03; P=0.02). Conclusions Venous congestion, as manifested as either peripheral edema or increased CVP, is directly associated with AKI in critically ill patients. Whether treatment of venous congestion with diuretics can modify this risk will require further study. PMID:26787777

Flood Risk Assessment Based On Security Deficit Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Beck, J.; Metzger, R.; Hingray, B.; Musy, A.

Risk is a human perception: a given risk may be considered as acceptable or unac- ceptable depending on the group that has to face that risk. Flood risk analysis of- ten estimates economic losses from damages, but neglects the question of accept- able/unacceptable risk. With input from land use managers, politicians and other stakeholders, risk assessment based on security deficit analysis determines objects with unacceptable risk and their degree of security deficit. Such a risk assessment methodology, initially developed by the Swiss federal authorities, is illustrated by its application on a reach of the Alzette River (Luxembourg) in the framework of the IRMA-SPONGE FRHYMAP project. Flood risk assessment always involves a flood hazard analysis, an exposed object vulnerability analysis, and an analysis combing the results of these two previous analyses. The flood hazard analysis was done with the quasi-2D hydraulic model FldPln to produce flood intensity maps. Flood intensity was determined by the water height and velocity. Object data for the vulnerability analysis, provided by the Luxembourg government, were classified according to their potential damage. Potential damage is expressed in terms of direct, human life and secondary losses. A thematic map was produced to show the object classification. Protection goals were then attributed to the object classes. Protection goals are assigned in terms of an acceptable flood intensity for a certain flood frequency. This is where input from land use managers and politicians comes into play. The perception of risk in the re- gion or country influences the protection goal assignment. Protection goals as used in Switzerland were used in this project. Thematic maps showing the protection goals of each object in the case study area for a given flood frequency were produced. Com- parison between an object's protection goal and the intensity of the flood that touched the object determine the acceptability of the risk and the

Cartographic modeling of heterogeneous landscape for footprint analysis of Eddy Covariance Measurements (Central Forest and Central Chernozem reserves, Russia)

Science.gov (United States)

Kozlov, Daniil

2014-05-01

The topographical, soil and vegetation maps of FLUXNET study areas are widely used for interpretation of eddy covariance measurements, for calibration of biogeochemical models and for making regional assessments of carbon balance. The poster presents methodological problems and results of ecosystem mapping using GIS, remote sensing, statistical and field methods on the example of two RusFluxNet sites in the Central Forest (33° E, 56°30'N) and Central Chernozem (36°10' E, 51°36'N) reserves. In the Central Forest reserve tacheometric measurements were used for topographical and peat surveys of bogged sphagnum spruce forest of 20-hectare area. Its common borders and its areas affected by windfall were determined. The supplies and spatial distribution of organic matter were obtained. The datasets of groundwater monitoring measurements on ten wells were compared with each other and the analysis of spatial and temporal groundwater variability was performed. The map of typical ecosystems of the reserve and its surroundings was created on the basis of analysis of multi-temporal Landsat images. In the Central Chernozem reserve the GNSS topographical survey was used for flux tower footprint mapping (22 ha). The features of microrelief predetermine development of different soils within the footprint. Close relationship between soil (73 drilling site) and terrain attributes (DEM with 2.5 m) allowed to build maps of soils and soil properties: carbon content, bulk density, upper boundary of secondary carbonates. Position for chamber-based soil respiration measurements was defined on the basis of these maps. The detailed geodetic and soil surveys of virgin lands and plowland were performed in order to estimate the effect of agrogenic processes such as dehumification, compaction and erosion on soils during the whole period of agricultural use of Central Chernozem reserve area and around. The choice of analogous soils was based on the similarity of their position within the

Bank risk, bailouts and ambiguity

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nijskens, R.G.M.

2012-01-01

The theoretical analysis in the second part investigates the effect of liquidity assistance and bailouts on bank risk taking and liquidity choice. Furthermore, it explores the possibilities for central banks to create ambiguity about liquidity assistance, thereby influencing bank choices. The

Credit Risk Modeling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lando, David

Credit risk is today one of the most intensely studied topics in quantitative finance. This book provides an introduction and overview for readers who seek an up-to-date reference to the central problems of the field and to the tools currently used to analyze them. The book is aimed at researchers...... and students in finance, at quantitative analysts in banks and other financial institutions, and at regulators interested in the modeling aspects of credit risk. David Lando considers the two broad approaches to credit risk analysis: that based on classical option pricing models on the one hand...

Prevalence and risk factors for trachoma in central and southern Malawi.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Khumbo Kalua

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Trachoma, one of the neglected tropical diseases is suspected to be endemic in Malawi. OBJECTIVES: To determine the prevalence of trachoma and associated risk factors in central and southern Malawi. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A population based survey conducted in randomly selected clusters in Chikwawa district (population 438,895, southern Malawi and Mchinji district (population 456,558, central Malawi. Children aged 1-9 years and adults aged 15 and above were assessed for clinical signs of trachoma. In total, 1010 households in Chikwawa and 1016 households in Mchinji districts were enumerated within 108 clusters (54 clusters in each district. A total of 6,792 persons were examined for ocular signs of trachoma. The prevalence of trachomatous inflammation, follicular (TF among children aged 1-9 years was 13.6% (CI 11.6-15.6 in Chikwawa and 21.7% (CI 19.5-23.9 in Mchinji districts respectively. The prevalence of trachoma trichiasis (TT in women and men aged 15 years and above was 0.6% (CI 0.2-0.9 in Chikwawa and 0.3% (CI 0.04-0.6 in Mchinji respectively. The presence of a dirty face was significantly associated with trachoma follicular (TF in both Chikwawa and Mchinji districts (P10%, and warrants the trachoma SAFE control strategy to be undertaken in Chikwawa and Mchinji districts.

Analysis and management of risks experienced in tunnel construction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cagatay Pamukcu

2015-12-01

Full Text Available In this study, first of all, the definitions of "risk", "risk analysis", "risk assessment" and "risk management" were made to avoid any confusions about these terms and significance of risk analysis and management in engineering projects was emphasized. Then, both qualitative and quantitative risk analysis techniques were mentioned and within the scope of the study, Event Tree Analysis method was selected in order to analyze the risks regarding TBM (Tunnel Boring Machine operations in tunnel construction. After all hazards that would be encountered during tunnel construction by TBM method had been investigated, those hazards were undergoing a Preliminary Hazard Analysis to sort out and prioritize the risks with high scores. When the risk scores were taken into consideration, it was seen that the hazards with high risk scores could be classified into 4 groups which are excavation + support induced accidents, accidents stemming from geologic conditions, auxiliary works, and project contract. According to these four classified groups of initiating events, Event Tree Analysis was conducted by taking into care 4 countermeasures apart from each other. Finally, the quantitative and qualitative consequences of Event Tree Analyses, which were undertaken for all initiating events, were investigated and interpreted together by making comparisons and referring to previous studies.

Risk analysis factors for local recurrence in Ewing's sarcoma: when should adjuvant radiotherapy be administered?

Science.gov (United States)

Albergo, J I; Gaston, C L L; Parry, M C; Laitinen, M K; Jeys, L M; Tillman, R M; Abudu, A T; Grimer, R J

2018-02-01

The aim of this study was to analyse a group of patients with non-metastatic Ewing's sarcoma at presentation and identify prognostic factors affecting the development of local recurrence, in order to assess the role of radiotherapy. A retrospective review of all patients with a Ewing's sarcoma treated between 1980 and 2012 was carried out. Only those treated with chemotherapy followed by surgery and/or radiotherapy were included. Patients were grouped according to site (central or limb) for further analysis of the prognostic factors. A total of 388 patients were included in the study. Of these, 60 (15%) developed local recurrence at a mean median of 27 months (sd 24, range 7 to 150) and the five-year local recurrence-free survival (5yrLRFS) was 83%. For central tumours, the size of the tumour and histological response to chemotherapy were found to be significant factors for local recurrence. For limb tumours, local recurrence was affected by intralesional and marginal resections, but not by the histological response to chemotherapy. Radiotherapy in those with a marginal resection reduced the risk of local recurrence (5yrLRFS: 96% versus 81%, p = 0.044). Local recurrence significantly affects the overall survival in patients with a Ewing's sarcoma. For those with a tumour in a limb, radiotherapy reduced the risk of local recurrence, especially in those with a marginal margin of excision, but the effect in central tumours was less clear. Radiotherapy for those who have had a wide margin of resection does not reduce the risk of local recurrence, regardless of the histological response to chemotherapy. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2018;100-B: 247-55. ©2018 The British Editorial Society of Bone & Joint Surgery.

Risk Implications of Energy Policy Instruments

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kitzing, Lena

papers and a working paper), based on a combination of micro-economic and policy analysis. Financial theory is used for the quantitative analysis of investment problems under uncertainty, including mean-variance portfolio theory, real option analysis, Monte Carlo simulations and time series analysis...... show, both qualitatively and quantitatively, that policy makers cannot neglect risk implications when designing RES support instruments without compromising either on effectiveness or cost-efficiency of energy policy. The central research questions are: how can risk implications of RES policy...... instruments be integrated into policy design, so that the policies provide adequate investment incentives? And can the consideration of such risk implications in policy design make overall energy policy more successful? These questions are answered in seven research papers (four journal papers, two conference...

Comparative Analysis of China’s Energy Strategy in Central Asian States

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mina Poshtich

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The article addresses the influence of the energy factor on formulating China’s political and economic strategy towards Central Asia. Therefore, the article provides the profound analysis of the PRC energy strategy in the region, namely its principles, goals, objectives and mechanisms. The article also examines the key areas of energy cooperation between China and the five Central Asian states, as well as the major joint energy projects. Moreover, the article takes a close look at the Silk Road Economic Belt as one of the largest and most ambitious Chinese economic projects, for it is directly relevant to the development of energy cooperation in the region. The author also analyses the prospects as well as possible problems of further energy cooperation between China and Central Asian states. 

[Central nervous system relapse in diffuse large B cell lymphoma: Risk factors].

Science.gov (United States)

Sancho, Juan-Manuel; Ribera, Josep-Maria

2016-01-15

Central nervous system (CNS) involvement by lymphoma is a complication associated, almost invariably, with a poor prognosis. The knowledge of the risk factors for CNS relapse is important to determine which patients could benefit from prophylaxis. Thus, patients with very aggressive lymphomas (such as lymphoblastic lymphoma or Burkitt's lymphoma) must systematically receive CNS prophylaxis due to a high CNS relapse rate (25-30%), while in patients with indolent lymphoma (such as follicular lymphoma or marginal lymphoma) prophylaxis is unnecessary. However, the question about CNS prophylaxis in patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL), the most common type of lymphoma, remains controversial. The information available is extensive, mainly based on retrospective and heterogeneous studies. There seems that immunochemotherapy based on rituximab reduces the CNS relapse rate. On the other hand, patients with increased serum lactate dehydrogenase plus more than one extranodal involvement seem to have a higher risk of CNS relapse, but a prophylaxis strategy based only on the presence of these 2 factors does not prevent all CNS relapses. Patients with involvement of testes or breast have high risk of CNS relapse and prophylaxis is mandatory. Finally, CNS prophylaxis could be considered in patients with DLBCL and renal or epidural space involvement, as well as in those cases with MYC rearrangements, although additional studies are necessary. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

49 CFR 260.17 - Credit risk premium analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Credit risk premium analysis. 260.17 Section 260... Financial Assistance § 260.17 Credit risk premium analysis. (a) When Federal appropriations are not available to cover the total subsidy cost, the Administrator will determine the Credit Risk Premium...

Toxicity After Central versus Peripheral Lung Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy: A Propensity Score Matched-Pair Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mangona, Victor S. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Beaumont Health System, Royal Oak, Michigan (United States); Aneese, Andrew M. [Oakland University William Beaumont School of Medicine, Rochester, Michigan (United States); Marina, Ovidiu; Hymas, Richard V. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Beaumont Health System, Royal Oak, Michigan (United States); Ionascu, Dan; Robertson, John M. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Beaumont Health System, Royal Oak, Michigan (United States); Oakland University William Beaumont School of Medicine, Rochester, Michigan (United States); Gallardo, Lori J. [Oakland University William Beaumont School of Medicine, Rochester, Michigan (United States); Department of Radiology, Beaumont Health System, Royal Oak, Michigan (United States); Grills, Inga Siiner, E-mail: igrills@beaumont.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, Beaumont Health System, Royal Oak, Michigan (United States); Oakland University William Beaumont School of Medicine, Rochester, Michigan (United States)

2015-01-01

Purpose: To compare toxicity after stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) for “central” tumors—within 2 cm of the proximal bronchial tree or with planning tumor volume (PTV) touching mediastinum—versus noncentral (“peripheral”) lung tumors. Methods and Materials: From November 2005 to January 2011, 229 tumors (110 central, 119 peripheral; T1-3N0M0 non–small-cell lung cancer and limited lung metastases) in 196 consecutive patients followed prospectively at a single institution received moderate-dose SBRT (48-60 Gy in 4-5 fractions [biologic effective dose=100-132 Gy, α/β=10]) using 4-dimensional planning, online image-guided radiation therapy, and institutional dose constraints. Clinical adverse events (AEs) were graded prospectively at clinical and radiographic follow-up using Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events version 3.0. Pulmonary function test (PFT) decline was graded as 2 (25%-49.9% decline), 3 (50.0%-74.9% decline), or 4 (≥75.0% decline). Central/peripheral location was assessed retrospectively on planning CT scans. Groups were compared after propensity score matching. Characteristics were compared with χ{sup 2} and 2-tailed t tests, adverse events with χ{sup 2} test-for-trend, and cumulative incidence using competing risks analysis (Gray's test). Results: With 79 central and 79 peripheral tumors matched, no differences in AEs were observed after 17 months median follow-up. Two-year cumulative incidences of grade ≥2 pain, musculoskeletal, pulmonary, and skin AEs were 14%, 5%, 6%, and 10% (central) versus 19%, 10%, 10%, and 3% (peripheral), respectively (P=.31, .38, .70, and .09). Grade ≥2 cardiovascular, gastrointestinal, and central nervous system AEs were rare (<1%). Two-year incidences of grade ≥2 clinical AEs (28% vs 25%, P=.79), grade ≥2 PFT decline (36% vs 34%, P=.94), grade ≥3 clinical AEs (3% vs 7%, P=.48), and grade ≥3 PFT decline (0 vs 10%, P=.11) were similar for central versus peripheral

Obesity and risk of colorectal cancer: a systematic review of prospective studies.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yanlei Ma

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Mounting evidence indicates that obesity may be associated with the risk of colorectal cancer (CRC. To conduct a systematic review of prospective studies assessing the association of obesity with the risk of CRC using meta-analysis. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Relevant studies were identified by a search of MEDLINE and EMBASE databases before January 2012, with no restrictions. We also reviewed reference lists from retrieved articles. We included prospective studies that reported relative risk (RR estimates with 95% confidence intervals (CIs for the association between general obesity [measured using body mass index (BMI] or central obesity [measured using waist circumference (WC] and the risk of colorectal, colon, or rectal cancer. Approximately 9, 000, 000 participants from several countries were included in this analysis. 41 studies on general obesity and 13 studies on central obesity were included in the meta-analysis. The pooled RRs of CRC for the obese vs. normal category of BMI were 1.334 (95% CI, 1.253-1.420, and the highest vs. lowest category of WC were 1.455 (95% CI, 1.327-1.596. There was heterogeneity among studies of BMI (P<0.001 but not among studies of WC (P=0.323. CONCLUSIONS: Both of general and central obesity were positively associated with the risk of CRC in this meta-analysis.

Seroprevalence and risk factors for Toxoplasma gondii infection on pig farms in central China.

Science.gov (United States)

Tao, Qing; Wang, Zhengsong; Feng, Huihui; Fang, Rui; Nie, Hao; Hu, Min; Zhou, Yanqin; Zhao, Junlong

2011-04-01

Toxoplasma gondii is a protozoan parasite that causes severe diseases in mammals, including humans, around the world. In China, pork is the main meat source; accordingly, T. gondii in pigs is considered an important source for human toxoplasmosis. Understanding the epidemiology of toxoplasmosis in pig farms is thus important for control of the disease in humans. The purpose of the present study was to investigate the epizootiology of T. gondii infections in pig farms in central China by assessing the seroprevalence and risk factors of this disease. In the present study, 3,558 sera samples were collected from pigs in 37 large-scale pig farms in this region and tested by AG-ELISA. The total seroprevalence was 24.5%, with the greatest prevalence in breeding pigs. The risk factors for toxoplasmosis suggest that high frequency of the contact of pigs with cats (P ≤ 0.01; IC 95%), high density of pig breeding (P ≤ 0.01; IC 95%), the presence of mosquitoes and flies (P ≤ 0.01; IC 95%), semi-patency pens (P ≤ 0.05; IC 95%), and low frequency of scavenging (P ≤ 0.01; IC 95%) were all associated with seroprevalence. In addition, the use of sulfonamides (P ≤ 0.01; IC 95%) significantly decreased seroprevalence. This is the first report of anti- T. gondii antibodies in pigs on large-scale pig farms in central China. The findings will provide useful information for designing control strategies of toxoplasmasis in pig farms.

Computational Aspects of Dam Risk Analysis: Findings and Challenges

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Ignacio Escuder-Bueno

2016-09-01

Full Text Available In recent years, risk analysis techniques have proved to be a useful tool to inform dam safety management. This paper summarizes the outcomes of three themes related to dam risk analysis discussed in the Benchmark Workshops organized by the International Commission on Large Dams Technical Committee on “Computational Aspects of Analysis and Design of Dams.” In the 2011 Benchmark Workshop, estimation of the probability of failure of a gravity dam for the sliding failure mode was discussed. Next, in 2013, the discussion focused on the computational challenges of the estimation of consequences in dam risk analysis. Finally, in 2015, the probability of sliding and overtopping in an embankment was analyzed. These Benchmark Workshops have allowed a complete review of numerical aspects for dam risk analysis, showing that risk analysis methods are a very useful tool to analyze the risk of dam systems, including downstream consequence assessments and the uncertainty of structural models.

Integrating Household Risk Mitigation Behavior in Flood Risk Analysis: An Agent-Based Model Approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Haer, Toon; Botzen, W J Wouter; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen C J H

2017-10-01

Recent studies showed that climate change and socioeconomic trends are expected to increase flood risks in many regions. However, in these studies, human behavior is commonly assumed to be constant, which neglects interaction and feedback loops between human and environmental systems. This neglect of human adaptation leads to a misrepresentation of flood risk. This article presents an agent-based model that incorporates human decision making in flood risk analysis. In particular, household investments in loss-reducing measures are examined under three economic decision models: (1) expected utility theory, which is the traditional economic model of rational agents; (2) prospect theory, which takes account of bounded rationality; and (3) a prospect theory model, which accounts for changing risk perceptions and social interactions through a process of Bayesian updating. We show that neglecting human behavior in flood risk assessment studies can result in a considerable misestimation of future flood risk, which is in our case study an overestimation of a factor two. Furthermore, we show how behavior models can support flood risk analysis under different behavioral assumptions, illustrating the need to include the dynamic adaptive human behavior of, for instance, households, insurers, and governments. The method presented here provides a solid basis for exploring human behavior and the resulting flood risk with respect to low-probability/high-impact risks. © 2016 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

Central Banking after the Crisis

OpenAIRE

Frederick S. Mishkin

2013-01-01

This paper explores where central banking is heading after the recent financial crisis. First it discusses the central bank consensus before the crisis and then outlines the key facts learned from the crisis that require changes in the way central banks conduct their business. Finally, it discusses four main areas in which central banks are altering their policy frameworks: 1) the interaction between monetary and financial stability policies, 2) nonconventional monetary policy, 3) risk manage...

Patients with primary diffuse large B-cell lymphoma of female genital tract have high risk of central nervous system relapse.

Science.gov (United States)

Cao, Xin-xin; Li, Jian; Zhang, Wei; Duan, Ming-hui; Shen, Ti; Zhou, Dao-bin

2014-06-01

The objective of this study was to evaluate retrospectively the clinical characteristics, treatments, and outcomes of patients with primary diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) of the female genital tract. The basic characteristics, treatments, and outcomes of six patients diagnosed with primary DLBCL of the female genital tract, including the ovary, uterine cervix, and vagina, treated in our hospital between 2000 and 2012, were analyzed retrospectively. Seven of 323 (2.2 %) newly diagnosed DLBCLs were diagnosed as primary female genital tract DLBCL. Six patients with complete medical data were included in the analysis. The median age at diagnosis was 52.5 years (range 20-65). The presenting symptoms included abnormal vaginal bleeding, increased vaginal discharge, abdominal fullness, and abdominal pain. Two patients had stage IE disease and four patients had stage IIE disease. Treatment included chemotherapy only in five patients, and combined chemotherapy and localized radiation in one patient. After a median follow-up of 58 months, four patients showed relapse in the central nervous system and two had died from progressive disease. The median progression-free survival was 27 months and the median overall survival for this group has not been reached. Patients with primary female genital tract DLBCL may have poor outcomes and a high risk of central nervous system relapse. Central nervous system prophylaxis might be considered in addition to systemic chemotherapy for DLBCL of the female genital tract.

Analysis of historical rainfall data and associated risks on rain-fed tef ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The central theme for this paper is studying the rainfall behavior over the past six decades in relation to the major rainfall induced risks for the rain-fed “tef” production system using 59 years of rainfall data. Risk of dry spell during germination and flowering is computed whereas crop water requirement satisfaction index is ...

Streamlining project delivery through risk analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

2015-08-01

Project delivery is a significant area of concern and is subject to several risks throughout Plan Development : Process (PDP). These risks are attributed to major areas of project development, such as environmental : analysis, right-of-way (ROW) acqu...

Reliability and risk analysis methods research plan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1984-10-01

This document presents a plan for reliability and risk analysis methods research to be performed mainly by the Reactor Risk Branch (RRB), Division of Risk Analysis and Operations (DRAO), Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research. It includes those activities of other DRAO branches which are very closely related to those of the RRB. Related or interfacing programs of other divisions, offices and organizations are merely indicated. The primary use of this document is envisioned as an NRC working document, covering about a 3-year period, to foster better coordination in reliability and risk analysis methods development between the offices of Nuclear Regulatory Research and Nuclear Reactor Regulation. It will also serve as an information source for contractors and others to more clearly understand the objectives, needs, programmatic activities and interfaces together with the overall logical structure of the program

Incidence and risk factors for central nervous system relapse in children and adolescents with acute lymphoblastic leukemia

Science.gov (United States)

Cancela, Camila Silva Peres; Murao, Mitiko; Viana, Marcos Borato; de Oliveira, Benigna Maria

2012-01-01

Background Despite all the advances in the treatment of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia, central nervous system relapse remains an important obstacle to curing these patients. This study analyzed the incidence of central nervous system relapse and the risk factors for its occurrence in children and adolescents with acute lymphoblastic leukemia. Methods This study has a retrospective cohort design. The studied population comprised 199 children and adolescents with a diagnosis of acute lymphoblastic leukemia followed up at Hospital das Clinicas, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (HC-UFMG) between March 2001 and August 2009 and submitted to the Grupo Brasileiro de Tratamento de Leucemia da Infância - acute lymphoblastic leukemia (GBTLI-LLA-99) treatment protocol. Results The estimated probabilities of overall survival and event free survival at 5 years were 69.5% (± 3.6%) and 58.8% (± 4.0%), respectively. The cumulative incidence of central nervous system (isolated or combined) relapse was 11.0% at 8 years. The estimated rate of isolated central nervous system relapse at 8 years was 6.8%. In patients with a blood leukocyte count at diagnosis ≥ 50 x 109/L, the estimated rate of isolated or combined central nervous system relapse was higher than in the group with a count 50 x 109/L at diagnosis seems to be a significant prognostic factor for a higher incidence of central nervous system relapse in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia. PMID:23323068

Fluid Centrality: A Social Network Analysis of Social-Technical Relations in Computer-Mediated Communication

Science.gov (United States)

Enriquez, Judith Guevarra

2010-01-01

In this article, centrality is explored as a measure of computer-mediated communication (CMC) in networked learning. Centrality measure is quite common in performing social network analysis (SNA) and in analysing social cohesion, strength of ties and influence in CMC, and computer-supported collaborative learning research. It argues that measuring…

RISK ANALYSIS AND EVALUATION FOR CRITICAL LOGISTICAL INFRASTRUCTURE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sascha Düerkop

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Logistical infrastructure builds the backbone of an economy. Without an effective logistical infrastructure in place, the supply for both enterprises and consumers might not be met. But even a high-quality logistical infrastructure can be threatened by risks. Thus, it is important to identify, analyse, and evaluate risks for logistical infrastructure that might threaten logistical processes. Only if those risks are known and their impact estimated, decision makers can implement counteractive measures to reduce risks. In this article, we develop a network-based approach that allows for the evaluation of risks and their consequences onto the logistical network. We will demonstrate the relevance of this approach by applying it to the logistics network of the central German state of Hesse. Even though transport data is extensively tracked and recorded nowadays, typical daily risks, like accidents on a motorway, and extraordinary risks, like a bridge at risk to collapse, terrorist attacks or climate-related catastrophes, are not systematically anticipated. Several studies unveiled recently that the overall impact for an economy of possible failures of single nodes and/or edges in a network are not calculated, and particularly critical edges are not identified in advance. We address this information gap by a method that helps to identify and quantify risks in a given network. To reach this objective, we define a mathematical optimization model that quantifies the current “risk-related costs” of the overall network and quantify the risk by investigating the change of the overall costs in the case a risk is realized.

Adiposity in Children and CVD Risk: ApoB48 Has a Stronger Association With Central Fat Than Classic Lipid Markers.

Science.gov (United States)

Wilke, Michaelann S; Maximova, Katerina; Henderson, Mélanie; Levy, Emile; Paradis, Gilles; O'Loughlin, Jennifer; Tremblay, Angelo; Proctor, Spencer D

2016-07-01

Atherosclerotic vascular disease begins in childhood and while progression is multifactorial, obesity in early life is an important risk factor for its development. To determine whether fasting apoB48 remnant lipoproteins (relative to classic lipid markers), is elevated with increasing central adiposity over time in a cohort of Canadian children with a family history of obesity. Data were drawn from the ongoing prospective cohort of 630 Caucasian families in Québec, Canada, recruited to assess determinants and effects of childhood obesity (Québec Adiposity and Lifestyle Investigation in Youth [QUALITY]cohort). Children who attended baseline and first followup clinic visits (n =570; age 9.6 y). Trunk fat mass was determined by dual energy x-ray absorptiometry. Central fat mass index was calculated as CFMI = trunk fat mass/height(2) (kg/m(2)) and groups created (CFMI children who transitioned from lower- to moderate-CFMI groups (ΔapoB48 = 1.5 μg/mL). For every 1 kg/m(2) increase in central adiposity over the 2-y period, an increase in apoB48 was 14-fold greater among children with lower baseline CFMI, compared with higher CFMI. Increased fasting concentrations of apoB48 may be representative of changes in adiposity at lower levels of central fat (early periods of risk).

Environmental risk analysis of hazardous material rail transportation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Saat, Mohd Rapik, E-mail: mohdsaat@illinois.edu [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1243 Newmark Civil Engineering Laboratory, 205 North Mathews Avenue, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); Werth, Charles J.; Schaeffer, David [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1243 Newmark Civil Engineering Laboratory, 205 North Mathews Avenue, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); Yoon, Hongkyu [Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM 87123 (United States); Barkan, Christopher P.L. [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1243 Newmark Civil Engineering Laboratory, 205 North Mathews Avenue, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States)

2014-01-15

Highlights: • Comprehensive, nationwide risk assessment of hazardous material rail transportation. • Application of a novel environmental (i.e. soil and groundwater) consequence model. • Cleanup cost and total shipment distance are the most significant risk factors. • Annual risk varies from $20,000 to $560,000 for different products. • Provides information on the risk cost associated with specific product shipments. -- Abstract: An important aspect of railroad environmental risk management involves tank car transportation of hazardous materials. This paper describes a quantitative, environmental risk analysis of rail transportation of a group of light, non-aqueous-phase liquid (LNAPL) chemicals commonly transported by rail in North America. The Hazardous Materials Transportation Environmental Consequence Model (HMTECM) was used in conjunction with a geographic information system (GIS) analysis of environmental characteristics to develop probabilistic estimates of exposure to different spill scenarios along the North American rail network. The risk analysis incorporated the estimated clean-up cost developed using the HMTECM, route-specific probability distributions of soil type and depth to groundwater, annual traffic volume, railcar accident rate, and tank car safety features, to estimate the nationwide annual risk of transporting each product. The annual risk per car-mile (car-km) and per ton-mile (ton-km) was also calculated to enable comparison between chemicals and to provide information on the risk cost associated with shipments of these products. The analysis and the methodology provide a quantitative approach that will enable more effective management of the environmental risk of transporting hazardous materials.

Environmental risk analysis of hazardous material rail transportation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saat, Mohd Rapik; Werth, Charles J.; Schaeffer, David; Yoon, Hongkyu; Barkan, Christopher P.L.

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Comprehensive, nationwide risk assessment of hazardous material rail transportation. • Application of a novel environmental (i.e. soil and groundwater) consequence model. • Cleanup cost and total shipment distance are the most significant risk factors. • Annual risk varies from $20,000 to $560,000 for different products. • Provides information on the risk cost associated with specific product shipments. -- Abstract: An important aspect of railroad environmental risk management involves tank car transportation of hazardous materials. This paper describes a quantitative, environmental risk analysis of rail transportation of a group of light, non-aqueous-phase liquid (LNAPL) chemicals commonly transported by rail in North America. The Hazardous Materials Transportation Environmental Consequence Model (HMTECM) was used in conjunction with a geographic information system (GIS) analysis of environmental characteristics to develop probabilistic estimates of exposure to different spill scenarios along the North American rail network. The risk analysis incorporated the estimated clean-up cost developed using the HMTECM, route-specific probability distributions of soil type and depth to groundwater, annual traffic volume, railcar accident rate, and tank car safety features, to estimate the nationwide annual risk of transporting each product. The annual risk per car-mile (car-km) and per ton-mile (ton-km) was also calculated to enable comparison between chemicals and to provide information on the risk cost associated with shipments of these products. The analysis and the methodology provide a quantitative approach that will enable more effective management of the environmental risk of transporting hazardous materials

At the Edge? HIV Stigma and Centrality in a Community’s Social Network in Namibia

OpenAIRE

Smith, Rachel A; Baker, Michelle

2012-01-01

Social network analysis was used to examine the relationship between HIV/AIDS stigmatization, perceived risk, and centrality in the community network (via participation in community groups). The findings from respondents in Keetmanshoop, Namibia (N = 375) showed an interaction between stigma and risk perceptions: those who perceived higher HIV risk and stronger HIV stigma participated in fewer community groups and participated in groups with members who participated less widely across the net...

Centralization versus decentralization as a risk-return trade-off

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Arcuri, A.; Dari-Mattiacci, G.

2010-01-01

This paper characterizes the choice between centralization and decentralization as a risk‐return trade‐off and examines it in a model that integrates ideas from committee decision‐making and portfolio theories. Centralization, by pooling expertise, rarely yields erroneous decisions; however, when it

Malaria Prevention, Mefloquine Neurotoxicity, Neuropsychiatric Illness, and Risk-Benefit Analysis in the Australian Defence Force

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stuart McCarthy

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The Australian Defence Force (ADF has used mefloquine for malaria chemoprophylaxis since 1990. Mefloquine has been found to be a plausible cause of a chronic central nervous system toxicity syndrome and a confounding factor in the diagnosis of existing neuropsychiatric illnesses prevalent in the ADF such as posttraumatic stress disorder and traumatic brain injury. Overall health risks appear to have been mitigated by restricting the drug’s use; however serious risks were realised when significant numbers of ADF personnel were subjected to clinical trials involving the drug. The full extent of the exposure, health impacts for affected individuals, and consequences for ADF health management including mental health are not yet known, but mefloquine may have caused or aggravated neuropsychiatric illness in large numbers of patients who were subsequently misdiagnosed and mistreated or otherwise failed to receive proper care. Findings in relation to chronic mefloquine neurotoxicity were foreseeable, but this eventuality appears not to have been considered during risk-benefit analyses. Thorough analysis by the ADF would have identified this long-term risk as well as other qualitative risk factors. Historical exposure of ADF personnel to mefloquine neurotoxicity now also necessitates ongoing risk monitoring and management in the overall context of broader health policies.

Food groups and risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus: a systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Schwingshackl, Lukas; Hoffmann, Georg; Lampousi, Anna-Maria; Knüppel, Sven; Iqbal, Khalid; Schwedhelm, Carolina; Bechthold, Angela; Schlesinger, Sabrina; Boeing, Heiner

2017-05-01

The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to synthesize the knowledge about the relation between intake of 12 major food groups and risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D). We conducted a systematic search in PubMed, Embase, Medline (Ovid), Cochrane Central, and Google Scholar for prospective studies investigating the association between whole grains, refined grains, vegetables, fruits, nuts, legumes, eggs, dairy, fish, red meat, processed meat, and sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) on risk of T2D. Summary relative risks were estimated using a random effects model by contrasting categories, and for linear and non-linear dose-response relationships. Six out of the 12 food-groups showed a significant relation with risk of T2D, three of them a decrease of risk with increasing consumption (whole grains, fruits, and dairy), and three an increase of risk with increasing consumption (red meat, processed meat, and SSB) in the linear dose-response meta-analysis. There was evidence of a non-linear relationship between fruits, vegetables, processed meat, whole grains, and SSB and T2D risk. Optimal consumption of risk-decreasing foods resulted in a 42% reduction, and consumption of risk-increasing foods was associated with a threefold T2D risk, compared to non-consumption. The meta-evidence was graded "low" for legumes and nuts; "moderate" for refined grains, vegetables, fruit, eggs, dairy, and fish; and "high" for processed meat, red meat, whole grains, and SSB. Among the investigated food groups, selecting specific optimal intakes can lead to a considerable change in risk of T2D.

Prevalence and Risk Factors of Central Venous Stenosis among Prevalent Hemodialysis Patients, a Single Center Experience.

Science.gov (United States)

Osman, Osama O; El-Magzoub, Abdul-Rahman A; Elamin, Sarra

2014-01-01

Central vein stenosis (CVS) is a common complication of central venous catheter (CVC) insertion. In this study we evaluated the prevalence and risk factors of CVS among hemodialysis (HD) patients in a single center in Sudan, using Doppler ultrasound as a screening tool. The study included 106 prevalent HD patients. For every patient, we performed Duplex Doppler for the right and left jugular, subclavian and femoral veins. A patient was considered to have hemodynamically significant stenosis if the pre-stenosis to the post-stenosis velocities ratio was ≥ 2.5 or they had complete vein occlusion. Overall, 28.3% of patients had Doppler detected CVS, including 25.5% with hemodynamically significant stenosis and 2.8% with compromised flow. The prevalence of CVS was 68.4% among symptomatic patients compared to 19.5% in asymptomatic patients. The prevalence of CVS among patients with history of 0-1, 2-3 and ≥ 4 central venous catheters was 3.4%, 29.4% and 53.8% respectively (p=0.00). CVS was not more common in patients with history of previous/current jugular or femoral vein catheterization compared to no catheter placement in these veins (28.3% vs 28.6% and 35% vs 26.7% respectively; p >0.1). However, CVS was significantly more common in patients with previous/ current subclavian vein catheterization compared to no catheter placement in this vein (47.8% vs 22.9%, p = 0.02). CVS is highly prevalent among studied HD patients, particularly in the presence of suggestive clinical signs. The number of HD catheter placements and subclavian vein utilization for dialysis access impose a significantly higher risk of CVS.

At the edge? HIV stigma and centrality in a community's social network in Namibia.

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Rachel A; Baker, Michelle

2012-04-01

Social network analysis was used to examine the relationship between HIV/AIDS stigmatization, perceived risk, and centrality in the community network (via participation in community groups). The findings from respondents in Keetmanshoop, Namibia (N = 375) showed an interaction between stigma and risk perceptions\\hose who perceived higher HIV risk and stronger HIV stigma participated in fewer community groups and participated in groups with members who participated less widely across the network. In contrast, those who perceived higher HIV risk and weaker HIV stigma participated more, and were in community groups that are located on a greater share of the paths between entities in the network. Taboo, secrecy, resistance, knowing a person living with HIV/AIDS, and desire for diagnosis secrecy were also related to centrality. Findings suggest that the interaction of perceived HIV risk and HIV stigma are related to structural-level features of community networks based on participation in community groups.

RISK ANALYSIS APPLIED IN OIL EXPLORATION AND PRODUCTION

African Journals Online (AJOL)

ES Obe

aDepartment of Civil Engineering, University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Enugu State, Nigeria. ... The analysis in this work is ... risk analysis, oil field, risk management, projects, investment opportunity. 1. .... own merit but since the company has limited.

Central depression in nucleonic densities: Trend analysis in the nuclear density functional theory approach

Science.gov (United States)

Schuetrumpf, B.; Nazarewicz, W.; Reinhard, P.-G.

2017-08-01

Background: The central depression of nucleonic density, i.e., a reduction of density in the nuclear interior, has been attributed to many factors. For instance, bubble structures in superheavy nuclei are believed to be due to the electrostatic repulsion. In light nuclei, the mechanism behind the density reduction in the interior has been discussed in terms of shell effects associated with occupations of s orbits. Purpose: The main objective of this work is to reveal mechanisms behind the formation of central depression in nucleonic densities in light and heavy nuclei. To this end, we introduce several measures of the internal nucleonic density. Through the statistical analysis, we study the information content of these measures with respect to nuclear matter properties. Method: We apply nuclear density functional theory with Skyrme functionals. Using the statistical tools of linear least square regression, we inspect correlations between various measures of central depression and model parameters, including nuclear matter properties. We study bivariate correlations with selected quantities as well as multiple correlations with groups of parameters. Detailed correlation analysis is carried out for 34Si for which a bubble structure has been reported recently, 48Ca, and N =82 , 126, and 184 isotonic chains. Results: We show that the central depression in medium-mass nuclei is very sensitive to shell effects, whereas for superheavy systems it is firmly driven by the electrostatic repulsion. An appreciable semibubble structure in proton density is predicted for 294Og, which is currently the heaviest nucleus known experimentally. Conclusion: Our correlation analysis reveals that the central density indicators in nuclei below 208Pb carry little information on parameters of nuclear matter; they are predominantly driven by shell structure. On the other hand, in the superheavy nuclei there exists a clear relationship between the central nucleonic density and symmetry energy.

Cyber Risk Management for Critical Infrastructure: A Risk Analysis Model and Three Case Studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Paté-Cornell, M-Elisabeth; Kuypers, Marshall; Smith, Matthew; Keller, Philip

2018-02-01

Managing cyber security in an organization involves allocating the protection budget across a spectrum of possible options. This requires assessing the benefits and the costs of these options. The risk analyses presented here are statistical when relevant data are available, and system-based for high-consequence events that have not happened yet. This article presents, first, a general probabilistic risk analysis framework for cyber security in an organization to be specified. It then describes three examples of forward-looking analyses motivated by recent cyber attacks. The first one is the statistical analysis of an actual database, extended at the upper end of the loss distribution by a Bayesian analysis of possible, high-consequence attack scenarios that may happen in the future. The second is a systems analysis of cyber risks for a smart, connected electric grid, showing that there is an optimal level of connectivity. The third is an analysis of sequential decisions to upgrade the software of an existing cyber security system or to adopt a new one to stay ahead of adversaries trying to find their way in. The results are distributions of losses to cyber attacks, with and without some considered countermeasures in support of risk management decisions based both on past data and anticipated incidents. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

The Cold War legacy of regulatory risk analysis: The Atomic Energy Commission and radiation safety

Science.gov (United States)

Boland, Joseph B.

From its inception in 1946 the Atomic Energy Commission pioneered the use of risk analysis as a mode of regulatory rationality and political rhetoric, yet historical treatments of risk analysis nearly always overlook the important role it played in the administration of atomic energy during the early Cold War. How this absence from history has been achieved and why it characterizes most historical accounts are the subjects of Chapter II. From there, this study goes on to develop the thesis that the advent of the atomic bomb was a world-shattering event that forced the Truman administration to choose between two novel alternatives: (1) movement towards global governance based initially on cooperative control of atomic energy or (2) unsparing pursuit of nuclear superiority. I refer to these as nuclear internationalism and nuclear nationalism, respectively. Each defined a social risk hierarchy. With the triumph of nuclear nationalism, nuclear annihilation was designated the greatest risk and a strong nuclear defense the primary means of prevention. The AEC's mission in the 1950s consisted of the rapid development of a nuclear arsenal, continual improvements in weapons technologies, and the promotion of nuclear power. The agency developed a risk-based regulatory framework through its dominant position within the National Committee on Radiation Protection. It embraced a technocratic model of risk analysis whose articulation and application it controlled, largely in secret. It used this to undergird a public rhetoric of reassurance and risk minimization. In practice, safety officials adjusted exposure levels within often wide parameters and with considerable fluidity in order to prevent safety concerns from interfering with operations. Secrecy, the political climate of the time, and a lack of accountability enabled the agency to meld technical assessments with social value judgments in a manner reflective of nuclear nationalism's risk hierarchy. In the late fifties

Risk analysis for dengue suitability in Africa using the ArcGIS predictive analysis tools (PA tools).

Science.gov (United States)

Attaway, David F; Jacobsen, Kathryn H; Falconer, Allan; Manca, Germana; Waters, Nigel M

2016-06-01

Risk maps identifying suitable locations for infection transmission are important for public health planning. Data on dengue infection rates are not readily available in most places where the disease is known to occur. A newly available add-in to Esri's ArcGIS software package, the ArcGIS Predictive Analysis Toolset (PA Tools), was used to identify locations within Africa with environmental characteristics likely to be suitable for transmission of dengue virus. A more accurate, robust, and localized (1 km × 1 km) dengue risk map for Africa was created based on bioclimatic layers, elevation data, high-resolution population data, and other environmental factors that a search of the peer-reviewed literature showed to be associated with dengue risk. Variables related to temperature, precipitation, elevation, and population density were identified as good predictors of dengue suitability. Areas of high dengue suitability occur primarily within West Africa and parts of Central Africa and East Africa, but even in these regions the suitability is not homogenous. This risk mapping technique for an infection transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes draws on entomological, epidemiological, and geographic data. The method could be applied to other infectious diseases (such as Zika) in order to provide new insights for public health officials and others making decisions about where to increase disease surveillance activities and implement infection prevention and control efforts. The ability to map threats to human and animal health is important for tracking vectorborne and other emerging infectious diseases and modeling the likely impacts of climate change. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Household risk factors associated to infestation of Triatoma dimidiata, the Chagas disease vector in Central Region of Veracruz, Mexico

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

César A Sandoval-Ruiz

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Objective. To evaluate risk factors facilitating the colonization of dwellings by Triatoma dimidiata in the central region of the state of Veracruz. Materials and methods. We applied socioeconomic questionnaires and entomologic surveys in three localities (Chavarrillo, Soyacuautla and Arroyo Agrio in central Veracruz involving 115 households. Results. We found that the main risk factors were the predominance of unplastered walls and particularly those made of light weight aggregate concrete blocks and wood. At Chavarrillo, houses usually have unplastered walls, whereas in Soyocuautla walls are commonly manufactured with wood. In Arroyo Agrio, the phenomenon was seasonal, and bugs were commonly found in the dry season, particularly in relatively new houses, less than 20 years old. Conclusions. These results help to improve the surveillance capacity for this vector and the control strategies to reduce the transmission of Chagas disease in the state of Veracruz and other sites where this species is present.

Heavy Metal Contamination in Soil and Brown Rice and Human Health Risk Assessment near Three Mining Areas in Central China

OpenAIRE

Fan, Yu; Zhu, Tingping; Li, Mengtong; He, Jieyi; Huang, Ruixue

2017-01-01

Background. Metal mining and waste discharge lead to regional heavy metal contamination and attract major concern because of the potential risk to local residents. Methods. This research was conducted to determine lead (Pb), cadmium (Cd), arsenic (As), manganese (Mn), and antimony (Sb) concentrations in soil and brown rice samples from three heavy metal mining areas in Hunan Province, central China, and to assess the potential health risks to local inhabitants. Results. Local soil contaminati...

Urban flooding and health risk analysis by use of quantitative microbial risk assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Signe Tanja

D thesis is to identify the limitations and possibilities for optimising microbial risk assessments of urban flooding through more evidence-based solutions, including quantitative microbial data and hydrodynamic water quality models. The focus falls especially on the problem of data needs and the causes......, but also when wading through a flooded area. The results in this thesis have brought microbial risk assessments one step closer to more uniform and repeatable risk analysis by using actual and relevant measured data and hydrodynamic water quality models to estimate the risk from flooding caused...... are expected to increase in the future. To ensure public health during extreme rainfall, solutions are needed, but limited knowledge on microbial water quality, and related health risks, makes it difficult to implement microbial risk analysis as a part of the basis for decision making. The main aim of this Ph...

Probabilistic risk analysis in chemical engineering

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schmalz, F.

1991-01-01

In risk analysis in the chemical industry, recognising potential risks is considered more important than assessing their quantitative extent. Even in assessing risks, emphasis is not on the probability involved but on the possible extent. Qualitative assessment has proved valuable here. Probabilistic methods are used in individual cases where the wide implications make it essential to be able to assess the reliability of safety precautions. In this case, assessment therefore centres on the reliability of technical systems and not on the extent of a chemical risk. 7 figs

Method for environmental risk analysis (MIRA) revision 2007

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2007-04-01

OLF's instruction manual for carrying out environmental risk analyses provides a united approach and a common framework for environmental risk assessments. This is based on the best information available. The manual implies standardizations of a series of parameters, input data and partial analyses that are included in the environmental risk analysis. Environmental risk analyses carried out according to the MIRA method will thus be comparable between fields and between companies. In this revision an update of the text in accordance with today's practice for environmental risk analyses and prevailing regulations is emphasized. Moreover, method adjustments for especially protected beach habitats have been introduced, as well as a general method for estimating environmental risk concerning fish. Emphasis has also been put on improving environmental risk analysis' possibilities to contribute to a better management of environmental risk in the companies (ml)

Evaluating the risks of clinical research: direct comparative analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Rid, Annette; Abdoler, Emily; Roberson-Nay, Roxann; Pine, Daniel S; Wendler, David

2014-09-01

Many guidelines and regulations allow children and adolescents to be enrolled in research without the prospect of clinical benefit when it poses minimal risk. However, few systematic methods exist to determine when research risks are minimal. This situation has led to significant variation in minimal risk judgments, raising concern that some children are not being adequately protected. To address this concern, we describe a new method for implementing the widely endorsed "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk. This standard defines research risks as minimal when they do not exceed the risks posed by daily life activities or routine examinations. This study employed a conceptual and normative analysis, and use of an illustrative example. Different risks are composed of the same basic elements: Type, likelihood, and magnitude of harm. Hence, one can compare the risks of research and the risks of daily life by comparing the respective basic elements with each other. We use this insight to develop a systematic method, direct comparative analysis, for implementing the "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk. The method offers a way of evaluating research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities, such as the risk of experiencing anxiety, stress, or other psychological harm. We thus illustrate how direct comparative analysis can be applied in practice by using it to evaluate whether the anxiety induced by a respiratory CO2 challenge poses minimal or greater than minimal risks in children and adolescents. Direct comparative analysis is a systematic method for applying the "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk to research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities. It thereby offers a method to protect children and adolescents in research, while ensuring that important studies are not blocked because of unwarranted concerns about research risks.

On Central Branch/Reinsurance Risk Networks: Exact Results and Heuristics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Florin Avram

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Modeling the interactions between a reinsurer and several insurers, or between a central management branch (CB and several subsidiary business branches, or between a coalition and its members, are fascinating problems, which suggest many interesting questions. Beyond two dimensions, one cannot expect exact answers. Occasionally, reductions to one dimension or heuristic simplifications yield explicit approximations, which may be useful for getting qualitative insights. In this paper, we study two such problems: the ruin problem for a two-dimensional CB network under a new mathematical model, and the problem of valuation of two-dimensional CB networks by optimal dividends. A common thread between these two problems is that the one dimensional reduction exploits the concept of invariant cones. Perhaps the most important contribution of the paper is the questions it raises; for that reason, we have found it useful to complement the particular examples solved by providing one possible formalization of the concept of a multi-dimensional risk network, which seems to us an appropriate umbrella for the kind of questions raised here.

Current drinking and health-risk behaviors among male high school students in central Thailand

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pichainarong Natchaporn

2011-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Alcohol drinking is frequently related to behavioral problems, which lead to a number of negative consequences. This study was to evaluate the characteristics of male high school students who drink, the drinking patterns among them, and the associations between current drinking and other health risk behaviors which focused on personal safety, violence-related behaviors, suicide and sexual behaviors. Method A cross-sectional study was conducted to explore current alcohol drinking and health-risk behaviors among male high school students in central Thailand. Five thousand one hundred and eighty four male students were classified into 2 groups according to drinking in the previous 30 days (yes = 631, no = 4,553. Data were collected by self-administered, anonymous questionnaire which consisted of 3 parts: socio-demographic factors, health-risk behaviors and alcohol drinking behavior during the past year from December 2007 to February 2008. Results The results showed that the percent of current drinking was 12.17. Most of them were 15-17 years (50.21%. Socio-demographic factors such as age, educational level, residence, cohabitants, grade point average (GPA, having a part time job and having family members with alcohol/drug problems were significantly associated with alcohol drinking (p Conclusions An increased risk of health-risk behaviors, including driving vehicles after drinking, violence-related behaviors, sad feelings and attempted suicide, and sexual behaviors was higher among drinking students that led to significant health problems. Effective intervention strategies (such as a campaign mentioning the adverse health effects and social consequences to the risk groups, and encouraging parental and community efforts to prevent drinking among adolescents should be implemented to prevent underage drinking and adverse consequences.

High-sensitivity C-reactive protein to detect metabolic syndrome in a centrally obese population: a cross-sectional analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

den Engelsen Corine

2012-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background People with central obesity have an increased risk for developing the metabolic syndrome, type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease. However, a substantial part of obese individuals have no other cardiovascular risk factors, besides their obesity. High sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP, a marker of systemic inflammation and a predictor of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease, is associated with the metabolic syndrome and its separate components. We evaluated the use of hs-CRP to discriminate between centrally obese people with and without the metabolic syndrome. Methods 1165 people with central obesity but without any previous diagnosis of hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes or cardiovascular disease, aged 20-70 years, underwent a physical examination and laboratory assays to determine the presence of the metabolic syndrome (NCEP ATP III criteria. Multivariable linear regression analyses were performed to assess which metabolic syndrome components were independently associated with hs-CRP. A ROC curve was drawn and the area under the curve was calculated to evaluate whether hs-CRP was capable to predict the presence of the metabolic syndrome. Results Median hs-CRP levels were significantly higher in individuals with central obesity with the metabolic syndrome (n = 417; 35.8% compared to individuals with central obesity without the metabolic syndrome (2.2 mg/L (IQR 1.2-4.0 versus 1.7 mg/L (IQR 1.0-3.4; p Conclusions Hs-CRP has limited capacity to predict the presence of the metabolic syndrome in a population with central obesity.

Managing weather and climate risks to agriculture in North America, Central America and the Caribbean

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Harlan D. Shannon

2015-12-01

Full Text Available In recent decades, numerous weather- and climate-related natural disasters have impacted North America, Central America, and the Caribbean, repeatedly demonstrating how vulnerable local agriculture is to extreme episodic events. Given this recent history, and expectations that the frequency and intensity of some episodic events will increase with climate change, it is becoming increasingly important for farmers to proactively manage weather and climate risks to agriculture to protect their livelihoods. Some farmers in this region already apply various strategies to help reduce weather and climate risks and uncertainties, including farming in multiple locations, diversifying crops and varieties, seeking alternative sources of income, and purchasing crop insurance. Such efforts often help farmers maintain a more stable income while also protecting and preserving the productivity of the land. Other farmers, however, have failed to implement basic risk management strategies despite the clear benefits. Reasons for these failures can be attributed to inadequate farmer education and training, a lack of tools to help facilitate the practical application of risk management concepts, and poor communications between the agrometeorological and farming communities. The agrometeorological community can help overcome these obstacles by building upon existing efforts that have successfully educated farmers about weather and climate risks to agriculture and have equipped farmers with the data, tools, and applications necessary to manage these risks. Farmer input is critical to preparing effective educational and training materials and developing user-friendly risk management tools. The agrometeorological community should solicit input from farmers regularly to ensure that farmers are obtaining the information necessary to effectively manage weather and climate risks to agriculture.

A 54 year analysis of articles from Mpilo Central Hospital, Bulawayo ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

PubMed and Google Scholar were searched to obtain articles originating from Mpilo Central Hospital, Bulawayo, Zimbabwe - 1958 to August 2011 (54 years). 168 articles cited 999 times were retrieved giving about 6 citations per article. Analysis of publication trends over time as well as publication avenues is made.

Risk Analysis for Unintentional Slide Deployment During Airline Operations.

Science.gov (United States)

Ayra, Eduardo S; Insua, David Ríos; Castellanos, María Eugenia; Larbi, Lydia

2015-09-01

We present a risk analysis undertaken to mitigate problems in relation to the unintended deployment of slides under normal operations within a commercial airline. This type of incident entails relevant costs for the airline industry. After assessing the likelihood and severity of its consequences, we conclude that such risks need to be managed. We then evaluate the effectiveness of various countermeasures, describing and justifying the chosen ones. We also discuss several issues faced when implementing and communicating the proposed measures, thus fully illustrating the risk analysis process. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Mapping Soil Erosion Factors and Potential Erosion Risk for the National Park "Central Balkan"

Science.gov (United States)

Ilieva, Diliana; Malinov, Ilia

2014-05-01

Soil erosion is widely recognised environmental problem. The report aims at presenting the main results from assessment and mapping of the factors of sheet water erosion and the potential erosion risk on the territory of National Park "Central Balkan". For this purpose, the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) was used for predicting soil loss from erosion. The influence of topography (LS-factor) and soil erodibility (K-factor) was assessed using small-scale topographic and soil maps. Rainfall erosivity (R-factor) was calculated from data of rainfalls with amounts exceeding 9.5 mm from 14 hydro-meteorological stations. The values of the erosion factors (R, K and LS) were presented for the areas of forest, sub-alpine and alpine zones. Using the methods of GIS, maps were plotted presenting the area distribution among the classes of the soil erosion factors and the potential risk in the respective zones. The results can be used for making accurate decisions for soil conservation and sustainable land management in the park.

Mare Risk Analysis monitor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fuente Prieto, I.; Alonso, P.; Carretero Fernandino, J. A.

2000-01-01

The Nuclear Safety Council's requirement that Spanish power plants comply with the requirements of the Maintenance Rule associated with plant risk assessment during power operation, arising from the partial unavailability of systems due to the maintenance activities, has led to need for additional tools to facilitate compliance with said requirements. While the impact on risk produced by individual equipment unavailabilities can easily be evaluated, either qualitatively or quantitatively, the process becomes more complicated when un programmed unavailabilities simultaneously occur in various systems, making it necessary to evaluate their functional impact. It is especially complex in the case of support systems that can affect the functionality of multiple systems. In view of the above, a computer application has been developed that is capable of providing the operator with quick answers based on the specific plant model in order to allow fast risk assessment using the information compiled as part of the Probabilistic Safety Analysis. The paper describes the most important characteristics of this application and the basic design requirements of the MARE Risk Monitor. (Author)

Radiation analysis for a generic centralized interim storage facility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gillespie, S.G.; Lopez, P.; Eble, R.G.

1997-01-01

This paper documents the radiation analysis performed for the storage area of a generic Centralized Interim Storage Facility (CISF) for commercial spent nuclear fuel (SNF). The purpose of the analysis is to establish the CISF Protected Area and Restricted Area boundaries by modeling a representative SNF storage array, calculating the radiation dose at selected locations outside the storage area, and comparing the results with regulatory radiation dose limits. The particular challenge for this analysis is to adequately model a large (6000 cask) storage array with a reasonable amount of analysis time and effort. Previous analyses of SNF storage systems for Independent Spent Fuel Storage Installations at nuclear plant sites (for example in References 5.1 and 5.2) had only considered small arrays of storage casks. For such analyses, the dose contribution from each storage cask can be modeled individually. Since the large number of casks in the CISF storage array make such an approach unrealistic, a simplified model is required

Market analysis and risk management of EU emissions trading

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ollikainen, M.; Ollikka, K.; Aatola, P.; Ahonen, H.M.; Pohjola, T.; Kumpulainen, A.; Lappalainen, E.

2006-01-01

The first EU emissions trading period commenced on 1 January 2005. It implies new challenges to companies included in the scheme. A central challenge is the uncertainty related to the markets. In order to manage risks and profitability companies need to be able to estimate future price developments of emission allowances. University of Helsinki is conducting a research project in cooperation with Helsinki University of Technology that will provide necessary information for analyzing emission allowance markets and create risk management competence. The objectives of the research project are 1) to develop a price estimation model for EU emission allowances and 2) to develop risk management competence related to EU emission allowances. With the price estimation model the short-term price developments of EU emission allowances can be estimated. By utilizing the model companies can reduce uncertainties related to the markets. The project will also deliver a general risk management model for emission allowances that aims at improving competitiveness of companies. (orig.)

Centrality measures in temporal networks with time series analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Qiangjuan; Zhao, Chengli; Zhang, Xue; Wang, Xiaojie; Yi, Dongyun

2017-05-01

The study of identifying important nodes in networks has a wide application in different fields. However, the current researches are mostly based on static or aggregated networks. Recently, the increasing attention to networks with time-varying structure promotes the study of node centrality in temporal networks. In this paper, we define a supra-evolution matrix to depict the temporal network structure. With using of the time series analysis, the relationships between different time layers can be learned automatically. Based on the special form of the supra-evolution matrix, the eigenvector centrality calculating problem is turned into the calculation of eigenvectors of several low-dimensional matrices through iteration, which effectively reduces the computational complexity. Experiments are carried out on two real-world temporal networks, Enron email communication network and DBLP co-authorship network, the results of which show that our method is more efficient at discovering the important nodes than the common aggregating method.

Bayesian-network-based safety risk analysis in construction projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Limao; Wu, Xianguo; Skibniewski, Miroslaw J.; Zhong, Jingbing; Lu, Yujie

2014-01-01

This paper presents a systemic decision support approach for safety risk analysis under uncertainty in tunnel construction. Fuzzy Bayesian Networks (FBN) is used to investigate causal relationships between tunnel-induced damage and its influential variables based upon the risk/hazard mechanism analysis. Aiming to overcome limitations on the current probability estimation, an expert confidence indicator is proposed to ensure the reliability of the surveyed data for fuzzy probability assessment of basic risk factors. A detailed fuzzy-based inference procedure is developed, which has a capacity of implementing deductive reasoning, sensitivity analysis and abductive reasoning. The “3σ criterion” is adopted to calculate the characteristic values of a triangular fuzzy number in the probability fuzzification process, and the α-weighted valuation method is adopted for defuzzification. The construction safety analysis progress is extended to the entire life cycle of risk-prone events, including the pre-accident, during-construction continuous and post-accident control. A typical hazard concerning the tunnel leakage in the construction of Wuhan Yangtze Metro Tunnel in China is presented as a case study, in order to verify the applicability of the proposed approach. The results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed approach and its application potential. A comparison of advantages and disadvantages between FBN and fuzzy fault tree analysis (FFTA) as risk analysis tools is also conducted. The proposed approach can be used to provide guidelines for safety analysis and management in construction projects, and thus increase the likelihood of a successful project in a complex environment. - Highlights: • A systemic Bayesian network based approach for safety risk analysis is developed. • An expert confidence indicator for probability fuzzification is proposed. • Safety risk analysis progress is extended to entire life cycle of risk-prone events. • A typical

On the validation of risk analysis-A commentary

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rosqvist, Tony

2010-01-01

Aven and Heide (2009) [1] provided interesting views on the reliability and validation of risk analysis. The four validation criteria presented are contrasted with modelling features related to the relative frequency-based and Bayesian approaches to risk analysis. In this commentary I would like to bring forth some issues on validation that partly confirm and partly suggest changes in the interpretation of the introduced validation criteria-especially, in the context of low probability-high consequence systems. The mental model of an expert in assessing probabilities is argued to be a key notion in understanding the validation of a risk analysis.

Quantitative risk assessment using the capacity-demand analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morgenroth, M.; Donnelly, C.R.; Westermann, G.D.; Huang, J.H.S.; Lam, T.M.

1999-01-01

The hydroelectric industry's recognition of the importance of avoiding unexpected failure, or forced outages, led to the development of probabilistic, or risk-based, methods in order to attempt to quantify exposures. Traditionally, such analysis has been carried out by qualitative assessments, relying on experience and sound engineering judgment to determine the optimum time to maintain, repair or replace a part or system. Depending on the nature of the problem, however, and the level of experience of those included in the decision making process, it is difficult to find a balance between acting proactively and accepting some amount of risk. The development of a practical means for establishing the probability of failure of any part or system, based on the determination of the statistical distribution of engineering properties such as acting stresses, is discussed. The capacity-demand analysis methodology, coupled with probablistic, risk-based analysis, permits all the factors associated with a decision to rehabilitate or replace a part, including the risks associated with the timing of the decision, to be assessed in a transparent and defendable manner. The methodology does not eliminate judgment altogether, but does move it from the level of estimating the risk of failure to the lower level of estimating variability in material properties, uncertainty in loading, and the uncertainties inherent in any engineering analysis. The method was successfully used in 1998 to carry out a comprehensive, economic risk analysis for the entire water conveyance system of a 90 year old hydropower station. The analysis included a number of diverse parts ranging from rock slopes and aging steel and concrete conduits, and the method allowed a rational assessment of the risks associated with reach of these varied parts to be determined, permitting the essential remedial works to be prioritized. 14 refs., 4 figs

System risk evolution analysis and risk critical event identification based on event sequence diagram

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Luo, Pengcheng; Hu, Yang

2013-01-01

During system operation, the environmental, operational and usage conditions are time-varying, which causes the fluctuations of the system state variables (SSVs). These fluctuations change the accidents’ probabilities and then result in the system risk evolution (SRE). This inherent relation makes it feasible to realize risk control by monitoring the SSVs in real time, herein, the quantitative analysis of SRE is essential. Besides, some events in the process of SRE are critical to system risk, because they act like the “demarcative points” of safety and accident, and this characteristic makes each of them a key point of risk control. Therefore, analysis of SRE and identification of risk critical events (RCEs) are remarkably meaningful to ensure the system to operate safely. In this context, an event sequence diagram (ESD) based method of SRE analysis and the related Monte Carlo solution are presented; RCE and risk sensitive variable (RSV) are defined, and the corresponding identification methods are also proposed. Finally, the proposed approaches are exemplified with an accident scenario of an aircraft getting into the icing region

Instability risk analysis and risk assessment system establishment of underground storage caverns in bedded salt rock

Science.gov (United States)

Jing, Wenjun; Zhao, Yan

2018-02-01

Stability is an important part of geotechnical engineering research. The operating experiences of underground storage caverns in salt rock all around the world show that the stability of the caverns is the key problem of safe operation. Currently, the combination of theoretical analysis and numerical simulation are the mainly adopts method of reserve stability analysis. This paper introduces the concept of risk into the stability analysis of underground geotechnical structure, and studies the instability of underground storage cavern in salt rock from the perspective of risk analysis. Firstly, the definition and classification of cavern instability risk is proposed, and the damage mechanism is analyzed from the mechanical angle. Then the main stability evaluating indicators of cavern instability risk are proposed, and an evaluation method of cavern instability risk is put forward. Finally, the established cavern instability risk assessment system is applied to the analysis and prediction of cavern instability risk after 30 years of operation in a proposed storage cavern group in the Huai’an salt mine. This research can provide a useful theoretical base for the safe operation and management of underground storage caverns in salt rock.

Analysis of risk factors and risk assessment for ischemic stroke recurrence

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiu-ying LONG

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Objective To screen the risk factors for recurrence of ischemic stroke and to assess the risk of recurrence. Methods Essen Stroke Risk Score (ESRS was used to evaluate the risk of recurrence in 176 patients with ischemic stroke (96 cases of first onset and 80 cases of recurrence. Univariate and multivariate stepwise Logistic regression analysis was used to screen risk factors for recurrence of ischemic stroke.  Results There were significant differences between first onset group and recurrence group on age, the proportion of > 75 years old, hypertension, diabetes, coronary heart disease, peripheral angiopathy, transient ischemic attack (TIA or ischemic stroke, drinking and ESRS score (P < 0.05, for all. First onset group included one case of ESRS 0 (1.04%, 8 cases of 1 (8.33%, 39 cases of 2 (40.63%, 44 cases of 3 (45.83%, 4 cases of 4 (4.17%. Recurrence group included 2 cases of ESRS 3 (2.50%, 20 cases of 4 (25% , 37 cases of 5 (46.25% , 18 cases of 6 (22.50% , 3 cases of 7 (3.75% . There was significant difference between 2 groups (Z = -11.376, P = 0.000. Logistic regression analysis showed ESRS > 3 score was independent risk factor for recurrence of ischemic stroke (OR = 31.324, 95%CI: 3.934-249.430; P = 0.001.  Conclusions ESRS > 3 score is the independent risk factor for recurrence of ischemic stroke. It is important to strengthen risk assessment of recurrence of ischemic stroke. To screen and control risk factors is the key to secondary prevention of ischemic stroke. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1672-6731.2016.07.011

Risk analysis of industrial plants operation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hubert, Philippe

1989-12-01

This study examines the possibilities of systematic technology risk analysis in view of territorial management (city, urban community, region), including chronic and accidental risks. The objective was to relate this evaluation with those done for permanent water and air pollution. Risk management for pollution are done for a long time. A number of studies were done in urban communities and regions both for air and water pollution. The second objective is related to management of industrial risks: nuclear, petrochemical, transport of hazardous material, pipelines, etc. At the beginning, three possibilities of effects are taken into account: human health, economic aspect and water, and possibilities of evaluation are identified. Elements of risk identification are presented for quantification of results [fr

[Survival analysis with competing risks: estimating failure probability].

Science.gov (United States)

Llorca, Javier; Delgado-Rodríguez, Miguel

2004-01-01

To show the impact of competing risks of death on survival analysis. We provide an example of survival time without chronic rejection after heart transplantation, where death before rejection acts as a competing risk. Using a computer simulation, we compare the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the multiple decrement model. The Kaplan-Meier method overestimated the probability of rejection. Next, we illustrate the use of the multiple decrement model to analyze secondary end points (in our example: death after rejection). Finally, we discuss Kaplan-Meier assumptions and why they fail in the presence of competing risks. Survival analysis should be adjusted for competing risks of death to avoid overestimation of the risk of rejection produced with the Kaplan-Meier method.

Quantitative risk analysis of a space shuttle subsystem

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frank, M.V.

1989-01-01

This paper reports that in an attempt to investigate methods for risk management other than qualitative analysis techniques, NASA has funded pilot study quantitative risk analyses for space shuttle subsystems. The authors performed one such study of two shuttle subsystems with McDonnell Douglas Astronautics Company. The subsystems were the auxiliary power units (APU) on the orbiter, and the hydraulic power units on the solid rocket booster. The technology and results of the APU study are presented in this paper. Drawing from a rich in-flight database as well as from a wealth of tests and analyses, the study quantitatively assessed the risk of APU-initiated scenarios on the shuttle during all phases of a flight mission. Damage states of interest were loss of crew/vehicle, aborted mission, and launch scrub. A quantitative risk analysis approach to deciding on important items for risk management was contrasted with the current NASA failure mode and effects analysis/critical item list approach

Risk of Central Nervous System Tumors in Children Related to Parental Occupational Pesticide Exposures in three European Case-Control Studies

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Febvey, Olivia; Schüz, Joachim; Bailey, Helen D; Clavel, Jacqueline; Lacour, Brigitte; Orsi, Laurent; Lightfoot, Tracy; Roman, Eve; Vermeulen, Roel; Kromhout, Hans; Olsson, Ann

2016-01-01

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to assess the risk of childhood central nervous system (CNS) tumors associated with parental occupational pesticide exposure. METHODS: We pooled three population-based case-control studies from France, Germany, and the United Kingdom. Cases were children below 15

New algorithm for risk analysis in radiotherapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Torres, Antonio; Montes de Oca, Joe

2015-01-01

Risk analyses applied to radiotherapy treatments have become an undeniable necessity, considering the dangers generated by the combination of using powerful radiation fields on patients and the occurrence of human errors and equipment failures during these treatments. The technique par excellence to execute these analyses has been the risk matrix. This paper presents the development of a new algorithm to execute the task with wide graphic and analytic potentialities, thus transforming it into a very useful option for risk monitoring and the optimization of quality assurance. The system SECURE- MR, which is the basic software of this algorithm, has been successfully used in risk analysis regarding different kinds of radiotherapies. Compared to previous methods, It offers new possibilities of analysis considering risk controlling factors as the robustness of reducers of initiators frequency and its consequences. Their analytic capacities and graphs allow novel developments to classify risk contributing factors, to represent information processes as well as accidental sequences. The paper shows the application of the proposed system to a generic process of radiotherapy treatment using a lineal accelerator. (author)

Modeling issues in nuclear plant fire risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Siu, N.

1989-01-01

This paper discusses various issues associated with current models for analyzing the risk due to fires in nuclear power plants. Particular emphasis is placed on the fire growth and suppression models, these being unique to the fire portion of the overall risk analysis. Potentially significant modeling improvements are identified; also discussed are a variety of modeling issues where improvements will help the credibility of the analysis, without necessarily changing the computed risk significantly. The mechanistic modeling of fire initiation is identified as a particularly promising improvement for reducing the uncertainties in the predicted risk. 17 refs., 5 figs. 2 tabs

Comparative risk analysis for the Rocky Flats Plant integrated project planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jones, M.E.; Shain, D.I.

1994-01-01

The Rocky Flats Plant is developing, with active stakeholder participation, a comprehensive planning strategy that will support transition of the Rocky Flats Plant from a nuclear weapons production facility to site cleanup and final disposition. Consideration of the interrelated nature of sitewide problems, such as material movement and disposition, facility and land use endstates, costs, relative risks to workers and the public, and waste disposition are all needed. Comparative Risk Analysis employs both incremental risk and cumulative risk evaluations to compare risks from postulated options or endstates and is an analytical tool for the Rocky Flats Plant Integrated Project Planning which can assist a decision-maker in evaluating relative risks among proposed remediation activity. However, risks from all of the remediation activities, decontamination and decommissioning activities, and normal ongoing operations are imposed upon the Rocky Flats workers, the surrounding public, and the environment. Comparative Risk Analysis will provide risk information, both human health and ecological, to aid in reducing unnecessary resource and monetary expenditures by focusing these resources on the largest risks first. Comparative Risk Analysis has been developed to aggregate various incremental risk estimates to develop a site cumulative risk estimate. The Comparative Risk Analysis methodology Group, consisting of community stakeholders, was established. Early stakeholder involvement in the risk analysis methodology development provides an opportunity for stakeholders to influence the risk information delivered to a decision-maker. This paper discusses development of the Comparative Risk Analysis methodology, stakeholder participation and lessons learned from these challenges

Epidemiological analysis of HTLV-1 and HTLV-2 infection among different population in Central China.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yunyun Ma

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: HTLV-1 and HTLV-2 are retroviruses linked etiologically to various human diseases, and both of them can be transmitted by vertical route, sexual intercourse, blood transfusion and intravenous drug use. Recently, some HTLV-infected cases have been reported and this virus is mainly present in the Southeast coastal areas in China, but has not been studied for the people in Central China. OBJECTIVES: To know the epidemiologic patterns among different population samples in Central China and further identify risk factor for HTLV-1 and HTLV-2 infection. METHODS: From January 2008 to December 2011, 5480 blood samples were screened for HTLV-1/2 antibodies by using enzyme immunoassay, followed by Western Blot. RESULTS: The prevalence of HTLV-1 and HTLV-2 was found with infection rates 0.13% and 0.05% among all population samples for HTLV-1 and HTLV-2, respectively. The highest percentages of infection, 0.39% and 0.20%, were found in the high risk group, while only 0.06% and 0.03% in the blood donor group. There was only one case of HTLV-1 infection (0.11% among patients with malignant hematological diseases. Of seven HTLV-1 positive cases, six were co-infected with HBV, two with HCV and one with HIV. Among three HTLV-2 positive individuals all were co-infected with HBV, one with HCV. CONCLUSIONS: HTLV-1 and HTLV-2 have been detected in the Central China at low prevalence, with the higher infection rate among high risk group. It was also found that co-infection of HTLV-1/2 with HIV and HBV occurred, presumably due to their similar transmission routes. HTLV-1/2 antibody screen among certain population would be important to prevent the spread of the viruses.

Gap analysis and conservation network for freshwater wetlands in Central Yangtze Ecoregion.

Science.gov (United States)

Xiaowen, Li; Haijin, Zhuge; Li, Mengdi

2013-01-01

The Central Yangtze Ecoregion contains a large area of internationally important freshwater wetlands and supports a huge number of endangered waterbirds; however, these unique wetlands and the biodiversity they support are under the constant threats of human development pressures, and the prevailing conservation strategies generated based on the local scale cannot adequately be used as guidelines for ecoregion-based conservation initiatives for Central Yangtze at the broad scale. This paper aims at establishing and optimizing an ecological network for freshwater wetland conservation in the Central Yangtze Ecoregion based on large-scale gap analysis. A group of focal species and GIS-based extrapolation technique were employed to identify the potential habitats and conservation gaps, and the optimized conservation network was then established by combining existing protective system and identified conservation gaps. Our results show that only 23.49% of the potential habitats of the focal species have been included in the existing nature reserves in the Central Yangtze Ecoregion. To effectively conserve over 80% of the potential habitats for the focal species by optimizing the existing conservation network for the freshwater wetlands in Central Yangtze Ecoregion, it is necessary to establish new wetland nature reserves in 22 county units across Hubei, Anhui, and Jiangxi provinces.

Network theory-based analysis of risk interactions in large engineering projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fang, Chao; Marle, Franck; Zio, Enrico; Bocquet, Jean-Claude

2012-01-01

This paper presents an approach based on network theory to deal with risk interactions in large engineering projects. Indeed, such projects are exposed to numerous and interdependent risks of various nature, which makes their management more difficult. In this paper, a topological analysis based on network theory is presented, which aims at identifying key elements in the structure of interrelated risks potentially affecting a large engineering project. This analysis serves as a powerful complement to classical project risk analysis. Its originality lies in the application of some network theory indicators to the project risk management field. The construction of the risk network requires the involvement of the project manager and other team members assigned to the risk management process. Its interpretation improves their understanding of risks and their potential interactions. The outcomes of the analysis provide a support for decision-making regarding project risk management. An example of application to a real large engineering project is presented. The conclusion is that some new insights can be found about risks, about their interactions and about the global potential behavior of the project. - Highlights: ► The method addresses the modeling of complexity in project risk analysis. ► Network theory indicators enable other risks than classical criticality analysis to be highlighted. ► This topological analysis improves project manager's understanding of risks and risk interactions. ► This helps project manager to make decisions considering the position in the risk network. ► An application to a real tramway implementation project in a city is provided.

Risk analysis methodologies for the transportation of radioactive materials

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Geffen, C.A.

1983-05-01

Different methodologies have evolved for consideration of each of the many steps required in performing a transportation risk analysis. Although there are techniques that attempt to consider the entire scope of the analysis in depth, most applications of risk assessment to the transportation of nuclear fuel cycle materials develop specific methodologies for only one or two parts of the analysis. The remaining steps are simplified for the analyst by narrowing the scope of the effort (such as evaluating risks for only one material, or a particular set of accident scenarios, or movement over a specific route); performing a qualitative rather than a quantitative analysis (probabilities may be simply ranked as high, medium or low, for instance); or assuming some generic, conservative conditions for potential release fractions and consequences. This paper presents a discussion of the history and present state-of-the-art of transportation risk analysis methodologies. Many reports in this area were reviewed as background for this presentation. The literature review, while not exhaustive, did result in a complete representation of the major methods used today in transportation risk analysis. These methodologies primarily include the use of severity categories based on historical accident data, the analysis of specifically assumed accident sequences for the transportation activity of interest, and the use of fault or event tree analysis. Although the focus of this work has generally been on potential impacts to public groups, some effort has been expended in the estimation of risks to occupational groups in transportation activities

Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Dezfuli, Homayoon; Kelly, Dana; Smith, Curtis; Vedros, Kurt; Galyean, William

2009-01-01

This document, Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis, is intended to provide guidelines for the collection and evaluation of risk and reliability-related data. It is aimed at scientists and engineers familiar with risk and reliability methods and provides a hands-on approach to the investigation and application of a variety of risk and reliability data assessment methods, tools, and techniques. This document provides both: A broad perspective on data analysis collection and evaluation issues. A narrow focus on the methods to implement a comprehensive information repository. The topics addressed herein cover the fundamentals of how data and information are to be used in risk and reliability analysis models and their potential role in decision making. Understanding these topics is essential to attaining a risk informed decision making environment that is being sought by NASA requirements and procedures such as 8000.4 (Agency Risk Management Procedural Requirements), NPR 8705.05 (Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures for NASA Programs and Projects), and the System Safety requirements of NPR 8715.3 (NASA General Safety Program Requirements).

Advanced uncertainty modelling for container port risk analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Alyami, Hani; Yang, Zaili; Riahi, Ramin; Bonsall, Stephen; Wang, Jin

2016-08-13

Globalization has led to a rapid increase of container movements in seaports. Risks in seaports need to be appropriately addressed to ensure economic wealth, operational efficiency, and personnel safety. As a result, the safety performance of a Container Terminal Operational System (CTOS) plays a growing role in improving the efficiency of international trade. This paper proposes a novel method to facilitate the application of Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) in assessing the safety performance of CTOS. The new approach is developed through incorporating a Fuzzy Rule-Based Bayesian Network (FRBN) with Evidential Reasoning (ER) in a complementary manner. The former provides a realistic and flexible method to describe input failure information for risk estimates of individual hazardous events (HEs) at the bottom level of a risk analysis hierarchy. The latter is used to aggregate HEs safety estimates collectively, allowing dynamic risk-based decision support in CTOS from a systematic perspective. The novel feature of the proposed method, compared to those in traditional port risk analysis lies in a dynamic model capable of dealing with continually changing operational conditions in ports. More importantly, a new sensitivity analysis method is developed and carried out to rank the HEs by taking into account their specific risk estimations (locally) and their Risk Influence (RI) to a port's safety system (globally). Due to its generality, the new approach can be tailored for a wide range of applications in different safety and reliability engineering and management systems, particularly when real time risk ranking is required to measure, predict, and improve the associated system safety performance. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multivariate survival analysis and competing risks

CERN Document Server

Crowder, Martin J

2012-01-01

Multivariate Survival Analysis and Competing Risks introduces univariate survival analysis and extends it to the multivariate case. It covers competing risks and counting processes and provides many real-world examples, exercises, and R code. The text discusses survival data, survival distributions, frailty models, parametric methods, multivariate data and distributions, copulas, continuous failure, parametric likelihood inference, and non- and semi-parametric methods. There are many books covering survival analysis, but very few that cover the multivariate case in any depth. Written for a graduate-level audience in statistics/biostatistics, this book includes practical exercises and R code for the examples. The author is renowned for his clear writing style, and this book continues that trend. It is an excellent reference for graduate students and researchers looking for grounding in this burgeoning field of research.

Ex-Vessel Steam Explosion Analysis of Central Melt Pour Scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ursic, M.; Leskovar, M.

2008-01-01

An ex-vessel steam explosion may develop during a severe reactor accident when the reactor vessel fails and the molten core interacts with the coolant in the reactor cavity. At this process part of the corium energy is intensively transferred to water in a very short time scale. The water vaporizes at high pressure and expands, doing work on its surrounding. Although the steam explosion has probably a low probability of occurrence, it is an important nuclear safety issue in case of a severe reactor accident. Namely, the formed very high pressure region induces dynamic loadings on the surrounding structures that may potentially lead to an early release of the radioactive material into the environment. Although the steam explosion events have being studied for several years, the level of the process and consequences understanding is still not adequate. To increase the level of confidence the OECD programme SERENA (Steam Explosion REsolution for Nuclear Applications) was established in 2002. The objectives of the program were to evaluate capabilities of the current generation of the FCI (Fuel-Coolant Interaction) computer codes in predicting the steam explosion induced loads, identifying key FCI phenomena and associated uncertainties impacting the predictability of the steam explosion energetics in the reactor situations and proposing confirmatory research to reduce the uncertainties to acceptable levels for the steam explosion risk assessment. To get a better insight into the most challenging ex-vessel steam explosions, analyses for different locations of the melt release, the cavity water sub-cooling, the primary system pressure overpressure and the triggering time were preformed for a typical pressurized water reactor cavity. The results of some scenarios revealed that significantly higher pressure loads are predicted than obtained in the OECD programme SERENA Phase 1. Among the performed analyses for the central melt pour scenarios, the maximum pressure loads were

Geological analysis of paleozoic large-scale faulting in the south-central Pyrenees

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Speksnijder, A.

1986-01-01

Detailed structural and sedimentological analysis reveals the existence of an east-west directed fundamental fault zone in the south-central Pyrenees, which has been intermittently active from (at least) the Devonian on. Emphasis is laid on the stUdy of fault-bounded post-Variscan

Flood risk analysis procedure for nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wagner, D.P.

1982-01-01

This paper describes a methodology and procedure for determining the impact of floods on nuclear power plant risk. The procedures are based on techniques of fault tree and event tree analysis and use the logic of these techniques to determine the effects of a flood on system failure probability and accident sequence occurrence frequency. The methodology can be applied independently or as an add-on analysis for an existing risk assessment. Each stage of the analysis yields useful results such as the critical flood level, failure flood level, and the flood's contribution to accident sequence occurrence frequency. The results of applications show the effects of floods on the risk from nuclear power plants analyzed in the Reactor Safety Study

Prevalence and evaluation of environmental risk factors associated with cleft lip and palate in a central Indian population.

Science.gov (United States)

Kalaskar, Ritesh; Kalaskar, Ashita; Naqvi, Fatama Sana; Tawani, Gopal S; Walke, Damayanti R

2013-01-01

Cleft lip and palate, the most common developmental deformity seen worldwide, may be either genetic or environmental in origin. Recent research clearly shows the inter-relationship between environmental risk factors and development of oral clefts. The purpose of this study was to determine the prevalence of cleft lip and palate in the Nagpur region of India and to evaluate environmental risk factors associated with the occurrence of this orofacial abnormality. The parents of infants born with or without cleft lip and palate were subjected to questionnaires that elicited sociodemographic profiles and histories of maternal dietary, medical, and environmental risk factors as well family histories of cleft. A multifactorial comparison of environmental risk factors associated with this deformity was performed. The prevalence of cleft lip and palate and cleft palate was found to be 0.66% and 0.27%, respectively, in the Nagpur region. The results demonstrated a positive association between cleft lip and palate and the environmental risk factors of nutritional deficiency, anemia, and self-administered medications. Several environmental risk factors appear to play an important role in the development of cleft lip and palate in a Central Indian population of low socioeconomic status.

Risk - a symposium on the assessment and perception of risk to human health in Canada. Proceedings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rogers, J.T.; Bates, D.V.

1983-04-01

The central concern in this Symposium is with risk to human health and life. Health risk includes the possibility of deaths (mortality), either immediate or delayed, and less severe health effects due to injury and illness (morbidity). Risk is defined as the product of the magnitude and the probability so that where it may be expressed quantitatively it is stated in units of harm per unit time (e.g. deaths per year or deaths per year per million of population). The 15 papers presented at this conference discuss the measurement, analysis perception, and management of risk. Six papers judged to be in scope were indexed for INIS

Ontological Analysis of the Project Risk Management Concept ‘Risk’

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Uzulāns Juris

2018-02-01

Full Text Available The aim of the current research series is to examine the definitions of the concept ‘risk’ and analyze the concepts used in the definitions of ‘risk’ in the sources of these definitions in order to perform the ontological analysis of the concept of ‘risk’. Ontological and epistemological analysis of the concepts in the definition of the concept ‘risk’ was used to answer the question what ‘risk’ means in project management. This investigation represents a part of the research series where the ontological, epistemological and methodological analysis of project risk is performed with the aim to improve risk registers and risk management as a whole. In the previous studies the author analyzed the concept of ‘event’ that defines the content of the concept ‘risk’. The use of ‘event’ was analyzed in different sources to find out how the concept should be used. The ontological, epistemological and methodological analysis of the definitions of the concept ‘risk’ is the theoretical foundation for risk register creation because it is possible to create complete and understandable register for the participants of the project risk management process. The author believes that the conducted research helps establish confidence that ontological analysis is the method that together with the epistemological and methodological analysis provides opportunity to perform analysis of risk management sources aimed at improving risk management. The results of the study cannot be considered sufficient for deriving valid conclusions about project risk management and developing recommendations for improving risk management with regard to the content of the risk register. For valid conclusions and recommendations, a deeper research is needed which, first of all, would analyze a larger number of sources.

The Assessment of Systemic Risk in the Kenyan Banking Sector

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hong Fan

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The present paper aims to assess the systemic risk of the Kenyan banking system. We propose a theoretical framework to reveal the time evolution of the systemic risk using sequences of financial data and use the framework to assess the systemic risk of the Kenyan banking system that is regarded as the largest in the East and Central African region. Firstly, we estimate the bilateral exposures matrix using aggregate financial data on loans and deposits from annual reports and analyze the interconnectedness in the market using network centrality measures. Next, we extend the Eisenberg–Noe method to a multiperiod setting to the systemic risk of the Kenyan banking system, in which the multiperiod includes the dynamic evolutions of the Kenyan banking system of every bank and the structure of the interbank network system. We apply this framework to assess dynamically the systemic risk of the Kenyan banking system between 2009 and 2015. The main findings are the following. The theoretical network analysis using network centrality measures showed several banks displaying characteristics of systematically important banks (SIBs. The theoretical default analysis showed that a bank suffering a basic default will trigger a contagious default that caused several other banks in the sector to go bankrupt. Further stress test proved that the KCB bank theoretically caused a few contagious defaults due to an unusually high interconnectedness. This methodology can contribute by being part of monitoring system of the Central Bank of Kenya (regulatory body as well as the implementation of policies (such as bank-internal stress tests that assist in preventing default contagion.

Risk analysis of alternative energy sources

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kazmer, D.R.

1982-01-01

The author explores two points raised by Miller Spangler in a January 1981 issue: public perception of risks involving nuclear power plants relative to those of conventional plants and criteria for evaluating the way risk analyses are made. On the first point, he concludes that translating public attitudes into the experts' language of probability and risk could provide better information and understanding of both the attitudes and the risks. Viewing risk analysis methodologies as filters which help to test historical change, he suggests that the lack of information favors a lay jury approach for energy decisions. Spangler responds that Congress is an example of lay decision making, but that a lay jury, given public disinterest and polarization, would probably not improve social justice on the nuclear issue. 5 references, 4 figures

Percutaneous central venous catheters versus peripheral cannulae for delivery of parenteral nutrition in neonates.

Science.gov (United States)

Ainsworth, S B; Clerihew, L; McGuire, W

2007-07-18

central venous catheter was associated with a decreased risk of cumulative nutritional deficit during the trial period: Mean difference in the percentage of the prescribed nutritional intake actually received: -7.1% (95% confidence interval -11.02, -3.2). In another trial, infants in the percutaneous central venous catheter group needed significantly fewer catheters/cannulae per infant during the trial period: Mean difference in the number of catheters/cannulae per infant: -3.2 (95% confidence interval -5.13, -1.27). Meta-analysis of data from all four trials did not find any evidence of an effect on the incidence of systemic infection: Typical relative risk: 0.94 (95% confidence interval 0.70, 1.25); typical risk difference: -0.02 (95% confidence interval -0.12, 0.08). Data from one small study suggest that the use of a percutaneous central venous catheter to deliver parenteral nutrition in newborn infants improves nutrient input. The significance of this in relation to long-term growth and developmental outcomes is unclear. Another study suggested that the use of a percutaneous central venous catheter rather than a peripheral cannula decreases the number of catheters/cannulae needed to deliver the nutrition. No evidence was found to suggest that percutaneous central venous catheter use increased the risk of adverse events, particularly systemic infection.

A financial network perspective of financial institutions' systemic risk contributions

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Wei-Qiang; Zhuang, Xin-Tian; Yao, Shuang; Uryasev, Stan

2016-08-01

This study considers the effects of the financial institutions' local topology structure in the financial network on their systemic risk contribution using data from the Chinese stock market. We first measure the systemic risk contribution with the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CoVaR) which is estimated by applying dynamic conditional correlation multivariate GARCH model (DCC-MVGARCH). Financial networks are constructed from dynamic conditional correlations (DCC) with graph filtering method of minimum spanning trees (MSTs). Then we investigate dynamics of systemic risk contributions of financial institution. Also we study dynamics of financial institution's local topology structure in the financial network. Finally, we analyze the quantitative relationships between the local topology structure and systemic risk contribution with panel data regression analysis. We find that financial institutions with greater node strength, larger node betweenness centrality, larger node closeness centrality and larger node clustering coefficient tend to be associated with larger systemic risk contributions.

Geological analysis of paleozoic large-scale faulting in the south-central Pyrenees

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Speksnijder, A.

1986-01-01

Detailed structural and sedimentological analysis reveals the existence of an east-west directed fundamental fault zone in the south-central Pyrenees, which has been intermittently active from (at least) the Devonian on. Emphasis is laid on the stUdy of fault-bounded post-Variscan (StephanoPermian)

The watchdog role of risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reijen, G. van; Vinck, W.

1983-01-01

The reason why the risks of large-scale technology attract more attention lies in the fact that accidents would have more disastrous results and in the fact that it is probably more attractive to study the risks of some large projects than to do the same for a greater number of smaller projects. Within this presentation there will be some opening remarks on the Role of the Commission of the European Community with regard to accident prevention. The development of the concept of quantitative risks is dealt with. This development leads to a combinded of deterministic and probabilistic methods. The presentation concludes with some critical remarks on quantitative risk analysis and its use. (orig./HP) [de

Totally implantable central venous access port infections in patients with digestive cancer: incidence and risk factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Touré, Abdoulaye; Vanhems, Philippe; Lombard-Bohas, Catherine; Cassier, Philippe; Péré-Vergé, Denis; Souquet, Jean-Christophe; Ecochard, René; Chambrier, Cécile

2012-12-01

Central venous access port-related bloodstream infection (CVAP-BSI) is associated with morbidity and mortality in patients with cancer. This study examined the incidence rates and risk factors for CVAP-BSI in adult patients with digestive cancer. This prospective observational cohort study was performed from 2007 to 2011 in 2 oncology units of a university hospital. Incidence rate was expressed as number of CVAP-BSI per 1,000 catheter-days. A Cox regression model was used to identify risk factors for CVAP-BSI. A total of 315 patients were included. CVAP-BSI occurred in 41 patients (13.0%). The overall incidence rate was 0.76/1,000 catheter-days. The rate was higher in patients with esophageal cancer (1.28. P = .05) and pancreatic cancer (1.24; P = .007). Risk factors independently associated with CVAP-BSI were World Health Organization performance status between 2 and 4, catheter utilization-days in the previous month, pancreatic cancer, and parenteral nutrition. Coagulase-negative Staphylococci and enterobacteria were the main microorganisms isolated. In adult patients with digestive cancer, pancreatic cancer, cumulative catheter utilization-days, World Health Organization performance status, and parenteral nutrition were identified as independent risk factors for CVAP-BSI. Patients with any of these risk factors could be candidates for preventive strategies. Copyright © 2012 Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology, Inc. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Effect of informal employment on the relationship between psychosocial work risk factors and musculoskeletal pain in Central American workers.

Science.gov (United States)

Gimeno Ruiz de Porras, David; Rojas Garbanzo, Marianela; Aragón, Aurora; Carmenate-Milián, Lino; Benavides, Fernando G

2017-09-01

The constant increase on the psychosocial demands experienced at work seems to contribute to the increase in health problems such as musculoskeletal pain (MSP). This association may be especially important in low-income and middle-income countries, where there is a large proportion of informal workers among whom there is little research. We analysed the association between psychosocial work risk factors and MSP among formal and informal workers using the First Central American Survey of Working Conditions and Health. This is a representative sample (n=12 024) of the economically active population of the six Spanish-speaking countries of Central America. Prevalence ratios (PR) and corresponding 95% CIs from Poisson regression models were used to estimate the association between psychosocial work risk factors and the MSP. Compared with formal workers, informal workers reported higher prevalence of MPS in the body regions analysed (ie, cervicodorsal, lumbosacral, upper extremities) and higher exposure to psychosocial work risk factors. However, on the whole, the associations between the exposure to psychosocial work risk factors and the prevalence of MSP were similar for both formal and informal workers. Only the association between exposure to high demands and MSP in the upper extremities was higher (p=0.012) among formal (PR=1.69, 95% CI 1.46 to 1.96) than among informal workers (PR=1.40; 95% CI 1.30 to 1.51). Exposure to adverse levels of psychosocial work risk factors is associated with higher prevalence of MPS among both formal and informal workers. However, the role of employment informality in this association is complex and requires further examination. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

The use of current risk analysis tools evaluated towards preventing external domino accidents

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Reniers, Genserik L L; Dullaert, W.; Ale, B. J.M.; Soudan, K.

Risk analysis is an essential tool for company safety policy. Risk analysis consists of identifying and evaluating all possible risks. The efficiency of risk analysis tools depends on the rigueur of identifying and evaluating all possible risks. The diversity in risk analysis procedures is such that

Analysis of central and upwind compact schemes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sengupta, T.K.; Ganeriwal, G.; De, S.

2003-01-01

Central and upwind compact schemes for spatial discretization have been analyzed with respect to accuracy in spectral space, numerical stability and dispersion relation preservation. A von Neumann matrix spectral analysis is developed here to analyze spatial discretization schemes for any explicit and implicit schemes to investigate the full domain simultaneously. This allows one to evaluate various boundary closures and their effects on the domain interior. The same method can be used for stability analysis performed for the semi-discrete initial boundary value problems (IBVP). This analysis tells one about the stability for every resolved length scale. Some well-known compact schemes that were found to be G-K-S and time stable are shown here to be unstable for selective length scales by this analysis. This is attributed to boundary closure and we suggest special boundary treatment to remove this shortcoming. To demonstrate the asymptotic stability of the resultant schemes, numerical solution of the wave equation is compared with analytical solution. Furthermore, some of these schemes are used to solve two-dimensional Navier-Stokes equation and a computational acoustic problem to check their ability to solve problems for long time. It is found that those schemes, that were found unstable for the wave equation, are unsuitable for solving incompressible Navier-Stokes equation. In contrast, the proposed compact schemes with improved boundary closure and an explicit higher-order upwind scheme produced correct results. The numerical solution for the acoustic problem is compared with the exact solution and the quality of the match shows that the used compact scheme has the requisite DRP property

Dietary patterns and depression risk: A meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Ye; Lv, Mei-Rong; Wei, Yan-Jin; Sun, Ling; Zhang, Ji-Xiang; Zhang, Huai-Guo; Li, Bin

2017-07-01

Although some studies have reported potential associations of dietary patterns with depression risk, a consistent perspective hasn't been estimated to date. Therefore, we conducted this meta-analysis to evaluate the relation between dietary patterns and the risk of depression. A literature research was conducted searching MEDLINE and EMBASE databases up to September 2016. In total, 21 studies from ten countries met the inclusion criteria and were included in the present meta-analysis. A dietary pattern characterized by a high intakes of fruit, vegetables, whole grain, fish, olive oil, low-fat dairy and antioxidants and low intakes of animal foods was apparently associated with a decreased risk of depression. A dietary pattern characterized by a high consumption of red and/or processed meat, refined grains, sweets, high-fat dairy products, butter, potatoes and high-fat gravy, and low intakes of fruits and vegetables is associated with an increased risk of depression. The results of this meta-analysis suggest that healthy pattern may decrease the risk of depression, whereas western-style may increase the risk of depression. However, more randomized controlled trails and cohort studies are urgently required to confirm this findings. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Benefit-Risk Analysis for Decision-Making: An Approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Raju, G K; Gurumurthi, K; Domike, R

2016-12-01

The analysis of benefit and risk is an important aspect of decision-making throughout the drug lifecycle. In this work, the use of a benefit-risk analysis approach to support decision-making was explored. The proposed approach builds on the qualitative US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approach to include a more explicit analysis based on international standards and guidance that enables aggregation and comparison of benefit and risk on a common basis and a lifecycle focus. The approach is demonstrated on six decisions over the lifecycle (e.g., accelerated approval, withdrawal, and traditional approval) using two case studies: natalizumab for multiple sclerosis (MS) and bedaquiline for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB). © 2016 American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

Crustal insights from gravity and aeromagnetic analysis: Central North Slope, Alaska

Science.gov (United States)

Saltus, R.W.; Potter, C.J.; Phillips, J.D.

2006-01-01

Aeromagnetic and gravity data are processed and interpreted to reveal deep and shallow information about the crustal structure of the central North Slope, Alaska. Regional aeromagnetic anomalies primarily reflect deep crustal features. Regional gravity anomalies are more complex and require detailed analysis. We constrain our geophysical models with seismic data and interpretations along two transects including the Trans-Alaska Crustal Transect. Combined geophysical analysis reveals a remarkable heterogeneity of the pre-Mississippian basement. In the central North Slope, pre-Mississippian basement consists of two distinct geophysical domains. To the southwest, the basement is dense and highly magnetic; this basement is likely mafic and mechanically strong, possibly acting as a buttress to basement involvement in Brooks Range thrusting. To the northeast, the central North Slope basement consists of lower density, moderately magnetic rocks with several discrete regions (intrusions?) of more magnetic rocks. A conjugate set of geophysical trends, northwest-southeast and southwest-northeast, may be a factor in the crustal response to tectonic compression in this domain. High-resolution gravity and aeromagnetic data, where available, reflect details of shallow fault and fold structure. The maps and profile models in this report should provide useful guidelines and complementary information for regional structural studies, particularly in combination with detailed seismic reflection interpretations. Future challenges include collection of high-resolution gravity and aeromagnetic data for the entire North Slope as well as additional deep crustal information from seismic, drilling, and other complementary methods. Copyrights ?? 2006. The American Association of Petroleum Geologists. All rights reserved.

Methodology for risk-based analysis of technical specifications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vesely, W.E.; Gaertner, J.P.; Wagner, D.P.

1985-01-01

Part of the effort by EPRI to apply probabilistic risk assessment methods and results to the solution of utility problems involves the investigation of methods for risk-based analysis of technical specifications. The culmination of this investigation is the SOCRATES computer code developed by Battelle's Columbus Laboratories to assist in the evaluation of technical specifications of nuclear power plants. The program is designed to use information found in PRAs to re-evaluate risk for changes in component allowed outage times (AOTs) and surveillance test intervals (STIs). The SOCRATES program is a unique and important tool for technical specification evaluations. The detailed component unavailability model allows a detailed analysis of AOT and STI contributions to risk. Explicit equations allow fast and inexpensive calculations. Because the code is designed to accept ranges of parameters and to save results of calculations that do not change during the analysis, sensitivity studies are efficiently performed and results are clearly displayed

Implementing the Bayesian paradigm in risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aven, T.; Kvaloey, J.T.

2002-01-01

The Bayesian paradigm comprises a unified and consistent framework for analyzing and expressing risk. Yet, we see rather few examples of applications where the full Bayesian setting has been adopted with specifications of priors of unknown parameters. In this paper, we discuss some of the practical challenges of implementing Bayesian thinking and methods in risk analysis, emphasizing the introduction of probability models and parameters and associated uncertainty assessments. We conclude that there is a need for a pragmatic view in order to 'successfully' apply the Bayesian approach, such that we can do the assignments of some of the probabilities without adopting the somewhat sophisticated procedure of specifying prior distributions of parameters. A simple risk analysis example is presented to illustrate ideas

Quantitative Risk Analysis: Method And Process

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anass BAYAGA

2010-03-01

Full Text Available Recent and past studies (King III report, 2009: 73-75; Stoney 2007;Committee of Sponsoring Organisation-COSO, 2004, Bartell, 2003; Liebenberg and Hoyt, 2003; Reason, 2000; Markowitz 1957 lament that although, the introduction of quantifying risk to enhance degree of objectivity in finance for instance was quite parallel to its development in the manufacturing industry, it is not the same in Higher Education Institution (HEI. In this regard, the objective of the paper was to demonstrate the methods and process of Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA through likelihood of occurrence of risk (phase I. This paper serves as first of a two-phased study, which sampled hundred (100 risk analysts in a University in the greater Eastern Cape Province of South Africa.The analysis of likelihood of occurrence of risk by logistic regression and percentages were conducted to investigate whether there were a significant difference or not between groups (analyst in respect of QRA.The Hosmer and Lemeshow test was non-significant with a chi-square(X2 =8.181; p = 0.300, which indicated that there was a good model fit, since the data did not significantly deviate from the model. The study concluded that to derive an overall likelihood rating that indicated the probability that a potential risk may be exercised within the construct of an associated threat environment, the following governing factors must be considered: (1 threat source motivation and capability (2 nature of the vulnerability (3 existence and effectiveness of current controls (methods and process.

Cost-benefit analysis of central softening for production of drinking water.

Science.gov (United States)

Van der Bruggen, B; Goossens, H; Everard, P A; Stemgée, K; Rogge, W

2009-01-01

Softening drinking water before distribution yields advantages with environmental impact, such as lower household products consumption, less scaling in piping and machines, and the avoidance of decentralized, domestic softeners. Central softening is under consideration in Flanders by the largest water supplier, VMW (Dutch acronym for "Flemish Company for Water Supply"), to deliver soft (15 degrees F) water to their customers. A case study is presented for a region with hard water (47 degrees F). The chosen technique is the pellet reactor, based on precipitation of CaCO(3) by NaOH addition. This softening operation has possibly large impact on the environment and the water consumption pattern. A cost-benefit analysis has been made to estimate the added value of central softening, by investigating the impact on the drinking water company, on their customers, on employment, on environment, on health, etc. The analysis for the region of study revealed benefits for customers which were higher than the costs for the drinking water company. However, pricing of drinking water remains an important problem. A sensitivity analysis of these results has also been made, to evaluate the impact of important hypothesis, and to be able to expand this study to other regions. The conclusions for this part show that softening is beneficial if water hardness is to be decreased by at least 5 degrees F.

Risk Analysis for Performance Improvement in a Romanian Pharmaceutical Company

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dana Corina Deselnicu

2018-05-01

Full Text Available The paper presents risk management analysis carried out to investigate the operations of a Romanian company dealing with the distribution of pharmaceutical products. The main risks challenging the company were identified, described and classified, providing a scientific base for further analysis. Then, the identified inherent risks were evaluated using tools as the risk index method and the risk matrix in order to emphasize their tolerance level. According to the results of the evaluation, risk mitigation strategies and measures were advanced for the management of the analysed risks. Relevant conclusions were drawn from the experience.

Central Blood Pressure and Chronic Kidney Disease Progression

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Debbie L. Cohen

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Hypertension, diabetes, and proteinuria are well-recognized risk factors for progressive kidney function loss. However, despite excellent antihypertensive and antidiabetic drug therapies, which also often lower urinary protein excretion, there remains a significant reservoir of patients with chronic kidney disease who are at high risk for progression to end-stage kidney disease. This has led to the search for less traditional cardiovascular risk factors that will help stratify patients at risk for more rapid kidney disease progression. Among these are noninvasive estimates of vascular structure and function. Arterial stiffness, manifested by the pulse wave velocity in the aorta, has been established in a number of studies as a significant risk factor for kidney disease progression and cardiovascular endpoints. Much less well studied in chronic kidney disease are measures of central arterial pressures. In this paper we cover the physiology behind the generation of the central pulse wave contour and the studies available using these approaches and conclude with some speculations on the rationale for why measurements of central pressure may be informative for the study of chronic kidney disease progression.

Cytomegalovirus retinitis after central retinal vein occlusion in a patient on systemic immunosuppression: does venooclusive disease predispose to cytomegalovirus retinitis in patients already at risk?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Welling JD

2012-04-01

Full Text Available John D Welling, Ahmad B Tarabishy, John ChristoforidisDepartment of Ophthalmology, Havener Eye Institute, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, USAAbstract: Cytomegalovirus (CMV retinitis remains the most common opportunistic ocular infection in immunocompromised patients. Patients with immunocompromising diseases, such as acquired immunodeficiency syndrome, inherited immunodeficiency states, malignancies, and those on systemic immunosuppressive therapy, are known to be at risk. Recently, it has been suggested that patients undergoing intravitreal injection of immunosuppressive agents may also be predisposed. One previous case report speculated that there may be an additional risk for CMV retinitis in acquired immunodeficiency syndrome patients with venoocclusive disease. This case study presents a case of CMV retinitis following central retinal vein occlusion in a patient on systemic immunosuppressants.Keywords: cytomegalovirus retinitis, central retinal vein occlusion, immunosuppression, solid organ transplant, venous stasis, risk factor

Risk analysis and reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Uppuluri, V.R.R.

1979-01-01

Mathematical foundations of risk analysis are addressed. The importance of having the same probability space in order to compare different experiments is pointed out. Then the following topics are discussed: consequences as random variables with infinite expectations; the phenomenon of rare events; series-parallel systems and different kinds of randomness that could be imposed on such systems; and the problem of consensus of estimates of expert opinion

Assessment report on NRP sub-theme 'Risk Analysis'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Biesiot, W.; Hendrickx, L.; Olsthoorn, A.A.

1995-01-01

An overview and assessment are presented of the three research projects carried out under NRP funding that concern risk-related topics: (1) The risks of nonlinear climate changes, (2) Socio-economic and policy aspects of changes in incidence and intensity of extreme (weather) events, and (3) Characterizing the risks: a comparative analysis of the risks of global warming and of relevant policy strategies. 1 tab., 6 refs

Applications of probabilistic risk analysis in nuclear criticality safety design

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chang, J.K.

1992-01-01

Many documents have been prepared that try to define the scope of the criticality analysis and that suggest adding probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) to the deterministic safety analysis. The report of the US Department of Energy (DOE) AL 5481.1B suggested that an accident is credible if the occurrence probability is >1 x 10 -6 /yr. The draft DOE 5480 safety analysis report suggested that safety analyses should include the application of methods such as deterministic safety analysis, risk assessment, reliability engineering, common-cause failure analysis, human reliability analysis, and human factor safety analysis techniques. The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) report NRC SG830.110 suggested that major safety analysis methods should include but not be limited to risk assessment, reliability engineering, and human factor safety analysis. All of these suggestions have recommended including PRA in the traditional criticality analysis

GIS risk analysis of hazardous materials transport

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anders, C.; Olsten, J.

1991-01-01

The Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to assess the risks and vulnerability of transporting hazardous materials and wastes (such as gasoline, explosives, poisons, etc) on the Arizona highway system. This paper discusses the methodology that was utilized, and the application of GIS systems to risk analysis problems

Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma: Analysis of the Central Compartmentʼs Lymph Nodes Metastases

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Ján Sojak

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Background: Papillary thyroid carcinoma is typical by regional lymph nodes metastases. Therefore we decided to analyse associated risk factors. Objective: In this retrospective study we focused on the incidence of metastatic involvement of the central compartment’s lymph nodes correlated with age, size of the primary tumour, infiltration of thyroid gland capsule, positive lymphangioinvasion in order to assess risk factors. Method: We analysed group of 156 patients with papillary carcinoma, who have undergone total thyroidectomy and bilateral elective central compartment neck dissection. We evaluated the occurrence of metastases, size, infiltration and lymphangioinvasion based on definitive histology of the whole group and separately for subgroups of patients under and over 45 years. Result: We found metastatic involvement in 88 (56.4% patients. When comparing the subgroups of patients under (73 patients and over 45 years (83 patients, we found metastases in 56 vs. 32 (76.7% vs. 38.6% patients. In the subgroup of younger patients we found significant higher incidence of metastases compared with the group of over 45 years, P < 0.001 (P = 0.000027. We found significant higher incidence of metastases in patients with positive capsule infiltration in the whole group, P < 0.001 (P = 0.00049; in the subgroup of under 45 years, P < 0.001 (P = 0.00091 and in patients with positive lymphangioinvasion in the whole group, P < 0.01 (P = 0.00177; in the subgroup of over 45 years, P < 0.001 (P = 0.0002. In patients with metastases we found tumour size ≥1cm more frequently in all groups. Conclusion: We recorded higher incidence of regional metastases in patients under 45 years, positive capsule infiltration, lymphangioinvasion. Age under 45 years itself does not correlate with less aggressive disease, to the contrary some of other analysed risk factors correlate with more aggressive disease.

APPROPRIATE ALLOCATION OF CONTINGENCY USING RISK ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andi Andi

2004-01-01

Full Text Available Many cost overruns in the world of construction are attributable to either unforeseen events or foreseen events for which uncertainty was not appropriately accommodated. It is argued that a significant improvement to project management performance may result from greater attention to the process of analyzing project risks. The objective of this paper is to propose a risk analysis methodology for appropriate allocation of contingency in project cost estimation. In the first step, project risks will be identified. Influence diagramming technique is employed to identify and to show how the risks affect the project cost elements and also the relationships among the risks themselves. The second step is to assess the project costs with regards to the risks under consideration. Using a linguistic approach, the degree of uncertainty of identified project risks is assessed and quantified. The problem of dependency between risks is taken into consideration during this analysis. For the final step, as the main purpose of this paper, a method for allocating appropriate contingency is presented. Two types of contingencies, i.e. project contingency and management reserve are proposed to accommodate the risks. An illustrative example is presented at the end to show the application of the methodology.

The integration methods of fuzzy fault mode and effect analysis and fault tree analysis for risk analysis of yogurt production

Science.gov (United States)

Aprilia, Ayu Rizky; Santoso, Imam; Ekasari, Dhita Murita

2017-05-01

Yogurt is a product based on milk, which has beneficial effects for health. The process for the production of yogurt is very susceptible to failure because it involves bacteria and fermentation. For an industry, the risks may cause harm and have a negative impact. In order for a product to be successful and profitable, it requires the analysis of risks that may occur during the production process. Risk analysis can identify the risks in detail and prevent as well as determine its handling, so that the risks can be minimized. Therefore, this study will analyze the risks of the production process with a case study in CV.XYZ. The method used in this research is the Fuzzy Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (fuzzy FMEA) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA). The results showed that there are 6 risks from equipment variables, raw material variables, and process variables. Those risks include the critical risk, which is the risk of a lack of an aseptic process, more specifically if starter yogurt is damaged due to contamination by fungus or other bacteria and a lack of sanitation equipment. The results of quantitative analysis of FTA showed that the highest probability is the probability of the lack of an aseptic process, with a risk of 3.902%. The recommendations for improvement include establishing SOPs (Standard Operating Procedures), which include the process, workers, and environment, controlling the starter of yogurt and improving the production planning and sanitation equipment using hot water immersion.

Analysis of risk factors for persistent infection of asymptomatic women with high-risk human papilloma virus.

Science.gov (United States)

Shi, Nianmin; Lu, Qiang; Zhang, Jiao; Li, Li; Zhang, Junnan; Zhang, Fanglei; Dong, Yanhong; Zhang, Xinyue; Zhang, Zheng; Gao, Wenhui

2017-06-03

This study aims to prevent persistentinfection, reduce the incidence of cervical cancer, and improve women's health by understanding the theoretical basis of the risk factors for continuous infection of asymptomatic women with high-risk human papilloma virus (HPV) strains via information collected, which includes the persistent infection rate and the most prevalent HPV strain types of high risk to asymptomatic women in the high-risk area of cervical cancer in Linfen, Shanxi Province. Based on the method of cluster sampling, locations were chosen from the industrial county and agricultural county of Linfen, Shanxi Province, namely the Xiangfen and Quwo counties. Use of the convenience sampling (CS) method enables the identification of women who have sex but without symptoms of abnormal cervix for analyzing risk factors of HPV-DNA detection and performing a retrospective questionnaire survey in these 2 counties. Firstly, cervical exfoliated cell samples were collected for thin-layer liquid-based cytology test (TCT), and simultaneously testing high-risk type HPV DNA, then samples with positive testing results were retested to identify the infected HPV types. The 6-month period of testing was done to derive the 6-month persistent infection rate. The retrospective survey included concepts addressed in the questionnaire: basic situation of the research objects, menstrual history, marital status, pregnancy history, sexual habits and other aspects. The questionnaire was divided into a case group and a comparison group, which are based on the high-risk HPV-DNA testing result to ascertain whether or not there is persistent infection. Statistical analysis employed Epidate3.1 software for date entry, SPSS17.0 for date statistical analysis. Select statistic charts, Chi-Square Analysis, single-factor analysis and multivariate Logistic regression analysis to analyze the protective factors and risk factors of high-risk HPV infection. Risk factors are predicted by using the

Higher complication risk of totally implantable venous access port systems in patients with advanced cancer - a single institution retrospective analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, Yi-Fang; Lo, An-Chi; Tsai, Chung-Hsin; Lee, Pei-Yi; Sun, Shen; Chang, Te-Hsin; Chen, Chien-Chuan; Chang, Yuan-Shin; Chen, Jen-Ruei

2013-02-01

Totally implantable port systems are generally recommended for prolonged central venous access in diverse settings, but their risk of complications remains unclear for patients with advanced cancer. The aim of this study was to assess the risk of port system failure in patients with advanced cancer. We conducted a retrospective cohort study in a comprehensive cancer centre. A detailed chart review was conducted among 566 patients with 573 ports inserted during January-June, 2009 (average 345.3 catheter-days). Cox regression analysis was applied to evaluate factors during insertion and early maintenance that could lead to premature removal of the port systems due to infection or occlusion. Port system-related infection was significantly associated with receiving palliative care immediately after implantation (hazard ratio, HR = 7.3, 95% confidence interval, 95% CI = 1.2-46.0), after adjusting for probable confounders. Primary cancer site also impacted the occurrence of device-related infection. Receiving oncologic/palliative care (HR = 3.0, P = 0.064), advanced cancer stage (HR = 6.5, P = 0.077) and body surface area above 1.71 m(2) (HR = 3.4, P = 0.029) increased the risk of port system occlusion. Our study indicates that totally implantable port systems yield a higher risk of complications in terminally ill patients. Further investigation should be carefully conducted to compare outcomes of various central venous access devices in patients with advanced cancer and to develop preventive strategies against catheter failure.

Neuropsychology of subjects with ultra-high risk (UHR) of psychosis: A critical analysis of the literature.

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Mam-Lam-Fook, C; Danset-Alexandre, C; Pedron, L; Amado, I; Gaillard, R; Krebs, M-O

2017-05-01

Cognitive disorders are currently considered as central components of disorders found in schizophrenia and are a major handicap for patients day to day. These disorders appear before the first psychotic episode, in the prodromal phase, during which time the symptoms are below the threshold for psychosis. People with these symptoms are considered as presenting an at-risk mental state (or at ultra-high risk, UHR of psychosis) and their risk for psychotic transition is between 20% and 40% within one year. Despite a number of studies, the chronology in which cognitive disorders appear in relation to the psychotic symptoms has not clearly been established and the study of the links between cognition and symptoms could improve our understanding of psychotic disorders. The detection of certain cognitive disorders before the onset of psychotic disorders could help improve early detection. We carried out a systematic analysis of the literature exploring cognitive disorders found in subjects with UHR for psychosis. The objective of most studies was to establish the predictive value for psychotic transition. Nevertheless study results have shown little consensus. Faced with this heterogeneity of results from past studies, we carried out a critical analysis of the literature and suggest areas of reflection for future research. Copyright © 2017 L'Encéphale, Paris. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

The application of CFD to hydrogen risk analysis in nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Hui; Han Xu; Chang Meng; Wang Xiaofeng; Wang Shuguo; Lu Xinhua; Wu Lin

2013-01-01

Status of the hydrogen risk analysis method is systemically summarized in this paper and the advantages and limits of CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamic) in hydrogen risk analysis is discussed. The international experimental programs on the CFD hydrogen risk analysis are introduced in this paper. The application of CFD to nuclear power plant (NPP) hydrogen risk analysis is introduced in detail by taking EPR and Ling'ao NPP for example. In these bases, the CFD development prospect of hydrogen risk analysis is also summarized in this paper. (authors)

A free and open source QGIS plugin for flood risk analysis: FloodRisk

Science.gov (United States)

Albano, Raffaele; Sole, Aurelia; Mancusi, Leonardo

2016-04-01

An analysis of global statistics shows a substantial increase in flood damage over the past few decades. Moreover, it is expected that flood risk will continue to rise due to the combined effect of increasing numbers of people and economic assets in risk-prone areas and the effects of climate change. In order to increase the resilience of European economies and societies, the improvement of risk assessment and management has been pursued in the last years. This results in a wide range of flood analysis models of different complexities with substantial differences in underlying components needed for its implementation, as geographical, hydrological and social differences demand specific approaches in the different countries. At present, it is emerging the need of promote the creation of open, transparent, reliable and extensible tools for a comprehensive, context-specific and applicable flood risk analysis. In this context, the free and open-source Quantum GIS (QGIS) plugin "FloodRisk" is a good starting point to address this objective. The vision of the developers of this free and open source software (FOSS) is to combine the main features of state-of-the-art science, collaboration, transparency and interoperability in an initiative to assess and communicate flood risk worldwide and to assist authorities to facilitate the quality and fairness of flood risk management at multiple scales. Among the scientific community, this type of activity can be labelled as "participatory research", intended as adopting a set of techniques that "are interactive and collaborative" and reproducible, "providing a meaningful research experience that both promotes learning and generates knowledge and research data through a process of guided discovery"' (Albano et al., 2015). Moreover, this FOSS geospatial approach can lowering the financial barriers to understanding risks at national and sub-national levels through a spatio-temporal domain and can provide better and more complete

Physical activity interventions in pregnancy and risk of gestational diabetes mellitus: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Russo, Lindsey M; Nobles, Carrie; Ertel, Karen A; Chasan-Taber, Lisa; Whitcomb, Brian W

2015-03-01

Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is a common complication of pregnancy associated with an increased incidence of pregnancy complications, adverse pregnancy outcomes, and maternal and fetal risks of chronic health conditions later in life. Physical activity has been proposed to reduce the risk of GDM and is supported by observational studies, but experimental research assessing its effectiveness is limited and conflicting. We aimed to use meta-analysis to synthesize existing randomized controlled studies of physical activity and GDM. We searched MEDLINE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and ClinicalTrials.gov for eligible studies. The following combination of keywords was used: (pregnant or pregnancy or gestation or gestate or gestational or maternity or maternal or prenatal) AND (exercise or locomotion or activity or training or sports) AND (diabetes or insulin sensitivity or glucose tolerance) AND (random* or trial). Eligibility was restricted to studies that randomized participants to an exercise-only-based intervention (ie, separate from dietary interventions) and presented data regarding GDM risk. Two authors performed the database search, assessment of eligibility, and abstraction of data from included studies, and a third resolved any discrepancies. A total of 469 studies was retrieved, of which 10 met inclusion criteria and could be used for analysis (3,401 participants). Fixed-effects models were used to estimate summary relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) and I to assess heterogeneity. There was a 28% reduced risk (95% CI 9-42%) in the intervention group compared with the control group (RR 0.72, P=.005). Heterogeneity was low (I=12%) and nonsignificant (P=.33). The results from this meta-analysis suggest that physical activity in pregnancy provides a slight protective effect against the development of GDM. Studies evaluating type, timing, duration, and compliance of physical activity regimens are warranted to best inform

Chemical risk evaluation, importance of the risk analysis framework uses: Latin America development restrictions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carrillo, M.

2013-01-01

The power point presentation is about reach and results of the risk analysis in Venezuela, chemical dangers in food, human damage, injuries , technologies news in fodd development, toxicity, microbiological risk, technical recommendations

Risks of Mergers and Acquisitions Processes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Skitsko Volodymyr I.

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Despite structural changes both in the economies of individual countries and in the world at large, the size of the merger/acquisition market is not declining and is tending to grow further. However, uncertainty in the global environment increases the importance of proper analysis, assessment and risk management in merger/acquisition transactions. Using the relevant research and publications by various authors, we have built a general ranking of the significance of merger and acquisition risks according to phases of the indicated process, with comparison of individual risk ratings, based on the publications by authors from Central and Eastern Europe and other countries around the world. The ranking of risks and threats of mergers/acquisitions proposed in this work can be considered one of the most complete for today. Further research needs to focus on the analysis, evaluation, and modeling of merger/acquisition risks, which occupy the top of the ranking, presented by the article.

Spent fuel pool risk analysis for the Dukovany NPP

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hust' ak, S.; Jaros, M.; Kubicek, J. [UJV Rez, a.s., Husinec-Rez (Czech Republic)

2013-07-01

UJV Rez, a.s. maintains a Living Probabilistic Safety Assessment (Living PSA) program for Dukovany Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) in the Czech Republic. This project has been established as a framework for activities related to risk assessment and to support for risk-informed decision making at this plant. The most extensively used PSA application at Dukovany NPP is risk monitoring of instantaneous (point-in-time) risk during plant operation, especially for the purpose of configuration risk management during plant scheduled outages to avoid risk significant configurations. The scope of PSA for Dukovany NPP includes also determination of a risk contribution from spent fuel pool (SFP) operation to provide recommendations for the prevention and mitigation of SFP accidents and to be applicable for configuration risk management. This paper describes the analysis of internal initiating events (IEs) in PSA for Dukovany NPP, which can contribute to the risk from SFP operation. The analysis of those IEs was done more thoroughly in the PSA for Dukovany NPP in order to be used in instantaneous risk monitoring. (orig.)

New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Skandamis, Panagiotis N.; Andritsos, Nikolaos; Psomas, Antonios; Paramythiotis, Spyridon

2015-01-01

The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total ‘failure’ that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user

New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Skandamis, Panagiotis N., E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Andritsos, Nikolaos, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Psomas, Antonios, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Paramythiotis, Spyridon, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr [Laboratory of Food Quality Control and Hygiene, Department of Food Science and Technology, Agricultural University of Athens, Iera Odos 75, 118 55, Athens (Greece)

2015-01-22

The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total ‘failure’ that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user

New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

Science.gov (United States)

Skandamis, Panagiotis N.; Andritsos, Nikolaos; Psomas, Antonios; Paramythiotis, Spyridon

2015-01-01

The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total `failure' that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user-friendly softwares

Risk analysis for decision support in electricity distribution system asset management: methods and frameworks for analysing intangible risks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nordgaard, Dag Eirik

2010-04-15

During the last 10 to 15 years electricity distribution companies throughout the world have been ever more focused on asset management as the guiding principle for their activities. Within asset management, risk is a key issue for distribution companies, together with handling of cost and performance. There is now an increased awareness of the need to include risk analyses into the companies' decision making processes. Much of the work on risk in electricity distribution systems has focused on aspects of reliability. This is understandable, since it is surely an important feature of the product delivered by the electricity distribution infrastructure, and it is high on the agenda for regulatory authorities in many countries. However, electricity distribution companies are also concerned with other risks relevant for their decision making. This typically involves intangible risks, such as safety, environmental impacts and company reputation. In contrast to the numerous methodologies developed for reliability risk analysis, there are relatively few applications of structured analyses to support decisions concerning intangible risks, even though they represent an important motivation for decisions taken in electricity distribution companies. The overall objective of this PhD work has been to explore risk analysis methods that can be used to improve and support decision making in electricity distribution system asset management, with an emphasis on the analysis of intangible risks. The main contributions of this thesis can be summarised as: An exploration and testing of quantitative risk analysis (QRA) methods to support decisions concerning intangible risks; The development of a procedure for using life curve models to provide input to QRA models; The development of a framework for risk-informed decision making where QRA are used to analyse selected problems; In addition, the results contribute to clarify the basic concepts of risk, and highlight challenges

Credit networks and systemic risk of Chinese local financing platforms: Too central or too big to fail?. -based on different credit correlations using hierarchical methods

Science.gov (United States)

He, Fang; Chen, Xi

2016-11-01

The accelerating accumulation and risk concentration of Chinese local financing platforms debts have attracted wide attention throughout the world. Due to the network of financial exposures among institutions, the failure of several platforms or regions of systemic importance will probably trigger systemic risk and destabilize the financial system. However, the complex network of credit relationships in Chinese local financing platforms at the state level remains unknown. To fill this gap, we presented the first complex networks and hierarchical cluster analysis of the credit market of Chinese local financing platforms using the ;bottom up; method from firm-level data. Based on balance-sheet channel, we analyzed the topology and taxonomy by applying the analysis paradigm of subdominant ultra-metric space to an empirical data in 2013. It is remarked that we chose to extract the network of co-financed financing platforms in order to evaluate the effect of risk contagion from platforms to bank system. We used the new credit similarity measure by combining the factor of connectivity and size, to extract minimal spanning trees (MSTs) and hierarchical trees (HTs). We found that: (1) the degree distributions of credit correlation backbone structure of Chinese local financing platforms are fat tailed, and the structure is unstable with respect to targeted failures; (2) the backbone is highly hierarchical, and largely explained by the geographic region; (3) the credit correlation backbone structure based on connectivity and size is significantly heterogeneous; (4) key platforms and regions of systemic importance, and contagion path of systemic risk are obtained, which are contributed to preventing systemic risk and regional risk of Chinese local financing platforms and preserving financial stability under the framework of macro prudential supervision. Our approach of credit similarity measure provides a means of recognizing ;systemically important; institutions and regions

Flow meter fault isolation in building central chilling systems using wavelet analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen Youming; Hao Xiaoli; Zhang Guoqiang; Wang Shengwei

2006-01-01

This paper presents an approach to isolate flow meter faults in building central chilling systems. It mathematically explains the fault collinearity among the flow meters in central chilling systems and points out that the sensor validation index (SVI) used in principal component analysis (PCA) is incapable of isolating flow meter faults due to the fault collinearity. The wavelet transform is used to isolate the flow meter faults as a substitute for the SVI of PCA. This approach can identify various variations in measuring signals, such as ramp, step, discontinuity etc., due to the good property of the wavelet in local time-frequency. Some examples are given to demonstrate its ability of fault isolation for the flow meters

[Reliability theory based on quality risk network analysis for Chinese medicine injection].

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Zheng; Kang, Li-Yuan; Fan, Xiao-Hui

2014-08-01

A new risk analysis method based upon reliability theory was introduced in this paper for the quality risk management of Chinese medicine injection manufacturing plants. The risk events including both cause and effect ones were derived in the framework as nodes with a Bayesian network analysis approach. It thus transforms the risk analysis results from failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) into a Bayesian network platform. With its structure and parameters determined, the network can be used to evaluate the system reliability quantitatively with probabilistic analytical appraoches. Using network analysis tools such as GeNie and AgenaRisk, we are able to find the nodes that are most critical to influence the system reliability. The importance of each node to the system can be quantitatively evaluated by calculating the effect of the node on the overall risk, and minimization plan can be determined accordingly to reduce their influences and improve the system reliability. Using the Shengmai injection manufacturing plant of SZYY Ltd as a user case, we analyzed the quality risk with both static FMEA analysis and dynamic Bayesian Network analysis. The potential risk factors for the quality of Shengmai injection manufacturing were identified with the network analysis platform. Quality assurance actions were further defined to reduce the risk and improve the product quality.

Analysis of Adoption Spell of Hybrid Maize in the Central Rift Valley ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This paper estimates farm household level determinants of the speed of adoption of hybrid maize in the central rift valley of Ethiopia in the framework of the dynamic time on cross-sectional data. Descriptive statistics and duration model were used to study the objectives of the study. The results from descriptive analysis ...

Dietary patterns and colorectal cancer risk: a meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Feng, Yu-Liang; Shu, Long; Zheng, Pei-Fen; Zhang, Xiao-Yan; Si, Cai-Juan; Yu, Xiao-Long; Gao, Wei; Zhang, Lun

2017-05-01

The analysis of dietary patterns has recently drawn considerable attention as a method of investigating the association between the overall whole diet and the risk of colorectal cancer. However, the results have yielded conflicting findings. Here, we carried out a meta-analysis to identify the association between dietary patterns and the risk of colorectal cancer. A total of 40 studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria and were included in this meta-analysis. The highest category of 'healthy' dietary pattern compared with the lowest category was apparently associated with a decreased risk for colorectal cancer [odds ratio (OR)=0.75; confidence interval (CI): 0.68-0.83; Pcolorectal cancer was shown for the highest compared with the lowest category of a 'western-style' dietary pattern (OR=1.40; CI: 1.26-1.56; Pcolorectal cancer in the highest compared with the lowest category of 'alcohol-consumption' pattern (OR=1.44; CI: 1.13-1.82; P=0.003). The results of this meta-analysis indicate that a 'healthy' dietary pattern may decrease the risk of colorectal cancer, whereas 'western-style' and 'alcohol-consumption' patterns may increase the risk of colorectal cancer.

Rapid prototyping of the Central Safety System for Nuclear Risk in ITER

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Scibile, L. [ITER Organization, CS 90 046, St. Paul-lez-Durance, Cedex (France); Ambrosino, G. [Consorzio CREATE, Universita degli Studi di Napoli Federico II, via Claudio 21, 80125, Napoli (Italy); De Tommasi, G., E-mail: detommas@unina.i [Consorzio CREATE, Universita degli Studi di Napoli Federico II, via Claudio 21, 80125, Napoli (Italy); Pironti, A. [Consorzio CREATE, Universita degli Studi di Napoli Federico II, via Claudio 21, 80125, Napoli (Italy)

2010-07-15

The Central Safety System for Nuclear Risk (CSS-N) coordinates the safety control systems to ensure nuclear safety for the ITER complex. Since the CSS-N is a safety critical system, its validation and commissioning play a very important role; in particular the required level of reliability must be demonstrated. In such a scenario, it is strongly recommended to use modeling and simulation tools since the early design phase. Indeed, the modeling tools will help in the definition of the control system requirements. Furthermore the models can than be used for the rapid prototyping of the safety system. Hardware-in-the-loop simulations can also be performed in order to assess the performance of the control hardware against a plant simulator. The proposed approach relies on the availability of a plant simulator to develop the prototype of the control system. This paper introduces the methodology used to design and develop both the CSS-N Oriented Plant Simulator and the CSS-N Prototype.

Rapid prototyping of the Central Safety System for Nuclear Risk in ITER

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Scibile, L.; Ambrosino, G.; De Tommasi, G.; Pironti, A.

2010-01-01

The Central Safety System for Nuclear Risk (CSS-N) coordinates the safety control systems to ensure nuclear safety for the ITER complex. Since the CSS-N is a safety critical system, its validation and commissioning play a very important role; in particular the required level of reliability must be demonstrated. In such a scenario, it is strongly recommended to use modeling and simulation tools since the early design phase. Indeed, the modeling tools will help in the definition of the control system requirements. Furthermore the models can than be used for the rapid prototyping of the safety system. Hardware-in-the-loop simulations can also be performed in order to assess the performance of the control hardware against a plant simulator. The proposed approach relies on the availability of a plant simulator to develop the prototype of the control system. This paper introduces the methodology used to design and develop both the CSS-N Oriented Plant Simulator and the CSS-N Prototype.

"It is not possible for me to have diabetes"-community perceptions on diabetes and its risk factors in Rural Purworejo District, Central Java, Indonesia.

Science.gov (United States)

Pujilestari, Cahya Utamie; Ng, Nawi; Hakimi, Mohammad; Eriksson, Malin

2014-06-12

Accumulating evidence suggests that negative perceptions towards diabetes can limit the management and prevention of the disease. The negative perceptions towards diabetes are prevalent in many different settings, especially among rural communities. Few qualitative studies have been performed to understand how the community views diabetes and its associated risk factors. This study aimed to explore general community perceptions of diabetes and its risk factors in rural Indonesia. A total of 68 participants were recruited to 12 focus group discussions (FGDs) comprised of different age groups and sexes. The FGDs were conducted in six villages in rural Purworejo District, Central Java, Indonesia, from 2011 to 2012. All FGDs were recorded and transcribed. Qualitative content analysis was performed to describe and analyse how the rural community perceived diabetes and its risk factors. Diabetes was perceived as a visible and scary sugar disease, and the affected individuals themselves were blamed for getting the disease. Recognised as 'sugar' or 'sweet-pee' disease with terrifying effects, diabetes was believed to be a disease with no cure. The participants seemed to have an unrealistic optimism with regards to the diabetes risk factors. They believed that diabetes would not affect them, only others, and that having family members with diabetes was necessary for one to develop diabetes. Our findings demonstrate that rural communities have negative perceptions about diabetes and at the same time individuals have unrealistic optimism about their own risk factors. Understanding how such communities perceive diabetes and its risk factors is important for planning prevention strategies. Health messages need to be tailored to health-related behaviours and the local culture's concepts of diseases and risk factors.

Sensitivity Analysis of Launch Vehicle Debris Risk Model

Science.gov (United States)

Gee, Ken; Lawrence, Scott L.

2010-01-01

As part of an analysis of the loss of crew risk associated with an ascent abort system for a manned launch vehicle, a model was developed to predict the impact risk of the debris resulting from an explosion of the launch vehicle on the crew module. The model consisted of a debris catalog describing the number, size and imparted velocity of each piece of debris, a method to compute the trajectories of the debris and a method to calculate the impact risk given the abort trajectory of the crew module. The model provided a point estimate of the strike probability as a function of the debris catalog, the time of abort and the delay time between the abort and destruction of the launch vehicle. A study was conducted to determine the sensitivity of the strike probability to the various model input parameters and to develop a response surface model for use in the sensitivity analysis of the overall ascent abort risk model. The results of the sensitivity analysis and the response surface model are presented in this paper.

Identification of rice supply chain risk to DKI Jakarta through Cipinang primary rice market

Science.gov (United States)

Sugiarto, D.; Ariwibowo, A.; Mardianto, I.; Surjasa, D.

2018-01-01

This paper identifies several sources of risks in DKI Jakarta rice supply chain that through Cipinang Primary Rice Market (CPRM). Secondary data from several sources were collected and analysed using pareto chart and time series analysis. Based on the pareto analysis, it was known that there was a change in the order of suppliers whereas in 2011, 80% of the supply came only from Cirebon, Karawang and Bandung (West Java Province). While in 2015 the main source of supply changed to Cirebon, Central Java and Karawang. Linear trend equation using decomposition model for Cirebon and Karawang showed trend of decreasing monthly supply while Central Java had a positive trend. Harvest area of wetland paddy in Cirebon and Karawang showed a negative trend in the last 6 years. The data also showed that West Java Province was the province with the largest rice crop area affected by plant organism attack and drought disaster in 2015. DKI Jakarta had several potential supply chain risks from rice supply, drought risk and pests risk where the province of West Java, which previously could become a major supplier began to require supply assistance from other provinces, especially Central Java.

Supplemental Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment - Hydrotreater

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lowry, Peter P. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wagner, Katie A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

2015-04-01

A supplemental hazard analysis was conducted and quantitative risk assessment performed in response to an independent review comment received by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) from the U.S. Department of Energy Pacific Northwest Field Office (PNSO) against the Hydrotreater/Distillation Column Hazard Analysis Report issued in April 2013. The supplemental analysis used the hazardous conditions documented by the previous April 2013 report as a basis. The conditions were screened and grouped for the purpose of identifying whether additional prudent, practical hazard controls could be identified, using a quantitative risk evaluation to assess the adequacy of the controls and establish a lower level of concern for the likelihood of potential serious accidents. Calculations were performed to support conclusions where necessary.

Seroprevalence and risk factors of brucellosis in abattoir workers at Debre Zeit and Modjo export abattoir, Central Ethiopia.

Science.gov (United States)

Tsegay, Amanuel; Tuli, Getachew; Kassa, Tesfu; Kebede, Nigatu

2017-01-26

Brucellosis is one of the major zoonoses globally with great veterinary and public health importance, particularly in developing countries where people are having frequent contact with livestock and animal products. This cross sectional study was carried out from November 2013 to May 2014 to determine the seroprevalence and assess the potential risk factors of brucellosis in abattoir workers of five export abattoirs at Debre Ziet and Modjo, Central Ethiopia. Serology and structured questionnaire were the methods used. In this study, 156 abattoir workers participated in the questionnaire survey and among them, 149 agreed for blood sample collection. Rose Bengal Plate Test and Complement Fixation Test were conducted using sera samples at serology laboratory of the National Animal Health Diagnostic and Investigation Center. Data collection sheets were used to gather information on possible risk factors believed to influence the spread of Brucella infection in abattoir workers such as sex, age, marital status, duration on job, types of work, educational level, etc. and further information obtained include knowledge of brucellosis and other zoonotic diseases infection, symptoms of the disease, milk and meat consumption habits and work related risk factors. Chi-square and Fisher's exact tests were used for data analysis. The overall seroprevalence of brucellosis in abattoir workers was found to be 4.7 and 1.3% using Rose Bengal plate test and Compliment fixation test, respectively. Based on the questionnaire survey, 66 (44.2%) and 85 (53.21%) of abattoir workers were aware of brucellosis and other zoonotic diseases, and 29 (18.6%) and 21 (13.5%) were using gloves and cover their mouth while slaughtering, respectively. Brucellosis in abattoir workers could be prevented by using protective closing and measures. Concerned body should educate occupationally exposed groups and the general public regarding e prevention and control of brucellosis and other zoonotic diseases.

The Prevalence of and Risk Factors Associated with Musculoskeletal Disorders among Sonographers in Central China: A Cross-Sectional Study

Science.gov (United States)

Feng, Qingmin; Liu, Shenglin; Yang, Lei; Xie, Mingxing

2016-01-01

Objective Studies from industrialized countries show that musculoskeletal disorders (MSD) occur commonly in sonographers. However, little is known about sonographers in China, where the awareness of ergonomics and MSD, workload, and available equipment/facilities may differ. We aimed to investigate the prevalence of MSD and associated risk factors in sonographers in central China. Methods A cross-sectional survey was conducted with 381 sonographers from 14 randomly selected tertiary hospitals in Hubei province, central China. Musculoskeletal symptoms (using the Nordic Questionnaire) and risk factors (mostly derived from the Health Benefit Trust survey instrument and the Dutch Musculoskeletal Questionnaire) were recorded. Multivariate logistic regression was used to quantify associations between risk factors and MSD. Results The 12-month period prevalence of MSD was 98.3%, being highest in the neck (93.5%) and shoulder (92.2%), followed by the lower back (83.2%), wrist/hand, upper back, and elbow. Factors contributing to neck pain were psychological fatigue, shoulder abduction and trunk bend-and-twist posture. Height-adjustable tables and chairs were protective factors. Shoulder pain was associated with female sex, health status, mental stress, shoulder abduction, and trunk bend-and-twist posture. Height-adjustable chairs and the awareness of adjusting the workstation before scanning were protective factors. Elbow pain was associated with health status and height-adjustable tables. Wrist/hand pain was associated with female sex, bending the wrist, and working with obese patients. Upper back pain was associated with shoulder abduction, height-adjustable chairs, and device location. Lower back pain was associated with the number of scans performed per day, awkward postures, bending the trunk, twisting or bending the neck forward, and using a footrest. Conclusions This study suggests a high prevalence of MSD in sonographers in central China. Hence, it is necessary to

A health risk assessment for fluoride in Central Europe.

Science.gov (United States)

Fordyce, F M; Vrana, K; Zhovinsky, E; Povoroznuk, V; Toth, G; Hope, B C; Iljinsky, U; Baker, J

2007-04-01

Like many elements, fluorine (which generally occurs in nature as fluoride) is beneficial to human health in trace amounts, but can be toxic in excess. The links between low intakes of fluoride and dental protection are well known; however, fluoride is a powerful calcium-seeking element and can interfere with the calcified structure of bones and teeth in the human body at higher concentrations causing dental or skeletal fluorosis. One of the main exposure routes is via drinking water and the World Health Organisation currently sets water quality guidelines for the element. In Central Europe, groundwater resources that exceed the guideline value of 1.5 mg l-1 are widespread and effects on health of high fluoride in water have been reported. The aim of the current project was to develop a geographic information system (GIS) to aid the identification of areas where high-fluoride waters and fluorosis may be a problem; hence, where water treatment technologies should be targeted. The development of the GIS was based upon the collation and digitisation of existing information relevant to fluoride risk in Ukraine, Moldova, Hungary and Slovakia assembled for the first time in a readily accessible form. In addition, geochemistry and health studies to examine in more detail the relationships between high-fluoride drinking waters and health effects in the population were carried out in Moldova and Ukraine demonstrating dental fluorosis prevalence rates of 60-90% in adolescents consuming water containing 2-7 mg l-1 fluoride.

Quantitative analysis of residual protein contamination of podiatry instruments reprocessed through local and central decontamination units

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ramage Gordon

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The cleaning stage of the instrument decontamination process has come under increased scrutiny due to the increasing complexity of surgical instruments and the adverse affects of residual protein contamination on surgical instruments. Instruments used in the podiatry field have a complex surface topography and are exposed to a wide range of biological contamination. Currently, podiatry instruments are reprocessed locally within surgeries while national strategies are favouring a move toward reprocessing in central facilities. The aim of this study was to determine the efficacy of local and central reprocessing on podiatry instruments by measuring residual protein contamination of instruments reprocessed by both methods. Methods The residual protein of 189 instruments reprocessed centrally and 189 instruments reprocessed locally was determined using a fluorescent assay based on the reaction of proteins with o-phthaldialdehyde/sodium 2-mercaptoethanesulfonate. Results Residual protein was detected on 72% (n = 136 of instruments reprocessed centrally and 90% (n = 170 of instruments reprocessed locally. Significantly less protein (p Conclusions Overall, the results show the superiority of central reprocessing for complex podiatry instruments when protein contamination is considered, though no significant difference was found in residual protein between local decontamination unit and central decontamination unit processes for Blacks files. Further research is needed to undertake qualitative identification of protein contamination to identify any cross contamination risks and a standard for acceptable residual protein contamination applicable to different instruments and specialities should be considered as a matter of urgency.

Revealing the underlying drivers of disaster risk: a global analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Peduzzi, Pascal

2017-04-01

Disasters events are perfect examples of compound events. Disaster risk lies at the intersection of several independent components such as hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Understanding the weight of each component requires extensive standardisation. Here, I show how footprints of past disastrous events were generated using GIS modelling techniques and used for extracting population and economic exposures based on distribution models. Using past event losses, it was possible to identify and quantify a wide range of socio-politico-economic drivers associated with human vulnerability. The analysis was applied to about nine thousand individual past disastrous events covering earthquakes, floods and tropical cyclones. Using a multiple regression analysis on these individual events it was possible to quantify each risk component and assess how vulnerability is influenced by various hazard intensities. The results show that hazard intensity, exposure, poverty, governance as well as other underlying factors (e.g. remoteness) can explain the magnitude of past disasters. Analysis was also performed to highlight the role of future trends in population and climate change and how this may impacts exposure to tropical cyclones in the future. GIS models combined with statistical multiple regression analysis provided a powerful methodology to identify, quantify and model disaster risk taking into account its various components. The same methodology can be applied to various types of risk at local to global scale. This method was applied and developed for the Global Risk Analysis of the Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR). It was first applied on mortality risk in GAR 2009 and GAR 2011. New models ranging from global assets exposure and global flood hazard models were also recently developed to improve the resolution of the risk analysis and applied through CAPRA software to provide probabilistic economic risk assessments such as Average Annual Losses (AAL

THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK AND THE FEDERAL RESERVE: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dorina Clichici

2017-06-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to identify the main differences and similarities between the European Central Bank (ECB and US Federal Reserve (FED in terms of their functional framework and monetary policy. The research is based on a comparative analysis of the history of establishing the Eurosystem and the Federal Reserve System, which has influenced the way these central banks operate today. It also analyzes the policy responses of the two institutions to the 2007 global financial crisis, since both their non-conventional policy measures and the effects thereof on growth, inflation and unemployment rates were slightly different. The paper finds that there are differences between the ECB and FED rather regarding the organization and functioning of the Committees for monetary policy and monetary policy objectives than the institutional structure and policy framework

Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

Science.gov (United States)

Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

2016-04-01

Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

2016-01-01

Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Prayogo, Galang Sandy, E-mail: gasandylang@live.com; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Diponegoro University, Semarang (Indonesia); Kim, Seon Jin [Department of Mechanical & Automotive Engineering of Pukyong National University (Korea, Republic of)

2016-04-19

Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

The development of a 3D risk analysis method.

Science.gov (United States)

I, Yet-Pole; Cheng, Te-Lung

2008-05-01

Much attention has been paid to the quantitative risk analysis (QRA) research in recent years due to more and more severe disasters that have happened in the process industries. Owing to its calculation complexity, very few software, such as SAFETI, can really make the risk presentation meet the practice requirements. However, the traditional risk presentation method, like the individual risk contour in SAFETI, is mainly based on the consequence analysis results of dispersion modeling, which usually assumes that the vapor cloud disperses over a constant ground roughness on a flat terrain with no obstructions and concentration fluctuations, which is quite different from the real situations of a chemical process plant. All these models usually over-predict the hazardous regions in order to maintain their conservativeness, which also increases the uncertainty of the simulation results. On the other hand, a more rigorous model such as the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model can resolve the previous limitations; however, it cannot resolve the complexity of risk calculations. In this research, a conceptual three-dimensional (3D) risk calculation method was proposed via the combination of results of a series of CFD simulations with some post-processing procedures to obtain the 3D individual risk iso-surfaces. It is believed that such technique will not only be limited to risk analysis at ground level, but also be extended into aerial, submarine, or space risk analyses in the near future.

Integrating natural disturbances and management activities to examine risks and opportunities in the central Oregon landscape analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Miles A. Hemstrom; James Merzenich; Theresa Burcsu; Janet Ohmann; Ryan Singleton

2010-01-01

We used state and transition models to integrate natural disturbances and management activities for a 275 000-ha landscape in the central Oregon Cascades. The landscape consists of a diverse mix of land ownerships, land use allocations, and environments. Three different management scenarios were developed from public input: (1) no management except wildfire suppression...

Analysis of Alternatives for Risk Assessment Methodologies and Tools

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nachtigal, Noel M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). System Analytics; Fruetel, Julia A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Gleason, Nathaniel J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Helms, Jovana [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Imbro, Dennis Raymond [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Sumner, Matthew C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis

2013-10-01

The purpose of this document is to provide a basic overview and understanding of risk assessment methodologies and tools from the literature and to assess the suitability of these methodologies and tools for cyber risk assessment. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) performed this review in support of risk modeling activities performed for the Stakeholder Engagement and Cyber Infrastructure Resilience (SECIR) division of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Office of Cybersecurity and Communications (CS&C). The set of methodologies and tools covered in this document is not intended to be exhaustive; instead, it focuses on those that are commonly used in the risk assessment community. The classification of methodologies and tools was performed by a group of analysts with experience in risk analysis and cybersecurity, and the resulting analysis of alternatives has been tailored to address the needs of a cyber risk assessment.

The Role of Central Blood Pressure Monitoring in the Management of Hypertension.

Science.gov (United States)

Ochoa, Adrian; Patarroyo-Aponte, Gabriel; Rahman, Mahboob

2018-04-19

Central blood pressure is a novel predictor of cardiovascular risk that can be measured in the clinical setting using currently available technology. This paper will review current available methods of central blood pressure monitoring as well as its impact in cardiac and renal disease. Both aortic and carotid systolic blood pressure are independently associated with cardiovascular mortality and serious cardiac events. Furthermore, studies show that systolic aortic blood pressure has been shown to be superior predictor of cardiovascular as compared to brachial blood pressure. Inhibitors of the renin angiotensin axis may have a beneficial effect on central blood pressure; however, long term studies evaluating the impact of lowering central blood pressure on clinical outcomes are lacking. Central blood pressure is a good predictor of cardiovascular risk. As more studies emerge demonstrating the value of central blood pressure as a therapeutic target, it is possible that targeting central blood pressure may become an important part of the armamentarium to lower cardiovascular risk.

Comparative risk analysis for the Rocky Flats Plant integrated project planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jones, M.E.; Shain, D.I.

1994-01-01

The Rocky Flats Plant is developing, with active stakeholder a comprehensive planning strategy that will support transition of the Rocky Flats Plant from a nuclear weapons production facility to site cleanup and final disposition. Final disposition of the Rocky Flats Plant materials and contaminants requires consideration of the interrelated nature of sitewide problems, such as material movement and disposition, facility and land use endstates, costs relative risks to workers and the public, and waste disposition. Comparative Risk Analysis employs both incremental risk and cumulative risk evaluations to compare risks from postulated options or endstates. These postulated options or endstates can be various remedial alternatives, or future endstate uses of federal agency land. Currently, there does not exist any approved methodology that aggregates various incremental risk estimates. Comparative Risk Analysis has been developed to aggregate various incremental risk estimates to develop a site cumulative risk estimate. This paper discusses development of the Comparative Risk Analysis methodology, stakeholder participation and lessons learned from these challenges

Exposure to electromagnetic fields and the risk of disease in the central nervous system in employees at Danish electric companies; Udsaettelse for elektromagnetiske felter og risiko for sygdomme i det centrale nervesystem blandt ansatte ved danske elselskaber

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Johansen, Christoffer

2002-07-01

Introduction: Occupational exposure to electromagnetic fields has been associated with neurological diseases, such as amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, senile dementia, Parkinson's disease and Alzheimer's disease. Material and method: I studied the incidence of disease in the central nervous system in 30,631 persons employed at Danish electric companies between 1900 and 1993. I linked the cohort to the nationwide, population-based Danish National Register of Patients and compared the number of cases of these diseases found between 1978 and 1993 with the corresponding rates in the general population. In addition, I fit the data on utility workers to a multiplicative Poisson regression model in relation to estimated levels of exposure to 50 Hz electromagnetic fields. Results: Overall, there was an increase in the risk of senile dementia and motor neuron diseases combined. The incidence of Parkinson's disease, Alzheimer's disease and other diseases of the central nervous system were essentially unrelated to exposure to electromagnetic fields. A decreased risk of epilepsy compared with the general population probably reflects a healthy worker effects; I observed an increased risk of epilepsy based on internal comparisons. Discussion: The increased risk of senile dementia and motor-neuron diseases may be associated with above average levels of exposure to electromagnetic fields. (au)

Source modelling in seismic risk analysis for nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yucemen, M.S.

1978-12-01

The proposed probabilistic procedure provides a consistent method for the modelling, analysis and updating of uncertainties that are involved in the seismic risk analysis for nuclear power plants. The potential earthquake activity zones are idealized as point, line or area sources. For these seismic source types, expressions to evaluate their contribution to seismic risk are derived, considering all the possible site-source configurations. The seismic risk at a site is found to depend not only on the inherent randomness of the earthquake occurrences with respect to magnitude, time and space, but also on the uncertainties associated with the predicted values of the seismic and geometric parameters, as well as the uncertainty in the attenuation model. The uncertainty due to the attenuation equation is incorporated into the analysis through the use of random correction factors. The influence of the uncertainty resulting from the insufficient information on the seismic parameters and source geometry is introduced into the analysis by computing a mean risk curve averaged over the various alternative assumptions on the parameters and source geometry. Seismic risk analysis is carried for the city of Denizli, which is located in the seismically most active zone of Turkey. The second analysis is for Akkuyu

Market Analysis and Risk Management of EU Emissions Trading - MARMET

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ollikainen, M.; Aatola, P.; Ollikka, K.; Kumpulainen, A.; Pohjola, T.; Lappalainen, E.

2007-01-01

The first period of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) commenced on January 1st 2005. It implies new challenges to companies included in the scheme. A central challenge is the uncertainty related to the markets. In order to manage their risks and profitability companies need to be able to estimate future price developments of emission allowances. The University of Helsinki is conducting a research project in cooperation with the Helsinki University of Technology that will provide necessary information for analyzing European Union emission allowance (EUA) markets and create risk management competence. The objectives of the research project are (1) to develop a price estimation model for EU emission allowances and (2) to develop risk management competence related to EU ETS. With the price estimation model the short-term price developments of EUAs can be estimated. By utilizing the model companies can reduce uncertainties related to the markets. The project also delivers a general risk management model for EU ETS that aims at improving competitiveness of companies. (orig.)

Genetics Home Reference: congenital central hypoventilation syndrome

Science.gov (United States)

... Kravis EM, Zhou L, Rand CM, Weese-Mayer DE. Congenital central hypoventilation syndrome: PHOX2B mutations and phenotype. Am J Respir Crit ... BA, Leurgans SE, Berry-Kravis EM, Weese-Mayer DE. Congenital central hypoventilation syndrome: PHOX2B genotype determines risk for sudden death. Pediatr ...

The Total Risk Analysis of Large Dams under Flood Hazards

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yu Chen

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Dams and reservoirs are useful systems in water conservancy projects; however, they also pose a high-risk potential for large downstream areas. Flood, as the driving force of dam overtopping, is the main cause of dam failure. Dam floods and their risks are of interest to researchers and managers. In hydraulic engineering, there is a growing tendency to evaluate dam flood risk based on statistical and probabilistic methods that are unsuitable for the situations with rare historical data or low flood probability, so a more reasonable dam flood risk analysis method with fewer application restrictions is needed. Therefore, different from previous studies, this study develops a flood risk analysis method for large dams based on the concept of total risk factor (TRF used initially in dam seismic risk analysis. The proposed method is not affected by the adequacy of historical data or the low probability of flood and is capable of analyzing the dam structure influence, the flood vulnerability of the dam site, and downstream risk as well as estimating the TRF of each dam and assigning corresponding risk classes to each dam. Application to large dams in the Dadu River Basin, Southwestern China, demonstrates that the proposed method provides quick risk estimation and comparison, which can help local management officials perform more detailed dam safety evaluations for useful risk management information.

Methodology for flood risk analysis for nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wagner, D.P.; Casada, M.L.; Fussell, J.B.

1984-01-01

The methodology for flood risk analysis described here addresses the effects of a flood on nuclear power plant safety systems. Combining the results of this method with the probability of a flood allows the effects of flooding to be included in a probabilistic risk assessment. The five-step methodology includes accident sequence screening to focus the detailed analysis efforts on the accident sequences that are significantly affected by a flood event. The quantitative results include the flood's contribution to system failure probability, accident sequence occurrence frequency and consequence category occurrence frequency. The analysis can be added to existing risk assessments without a significant loss in efficiency. The results of two example applications show the usefulness of the methodology. Both examples rely on the Reactor Safety Study for the required risk assessment inputs and present changes in the Reactor Safety Study results as a function of flood probability

Investment appraisal using quantitative risk analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Johansson, Henrik

2002-07-01

Investment appraisal concerned with investments in fire safety systems is discussed. Particular attention is directed at evaluating, in terms of the Bayesian decision theory, the risk reduction that investment in a fire safety system involves. It is shown how the monetary value of the change from a building design without any specific fire protection system to one including such a system can be estimated by use of quantitative risk analysis, the results of which are expressed in terms of a Risk-adjusted net present value. This represents the intrinsic monetary value of investing in the fire safety system. The method suggested is exemplified by a case study performed in an Avesta Sheffield factory.

Gender Analysis of Risk in Innovation System

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ayinde, Ope; Muchie, Mammo; Abaniyan, E. O.

2011-01-01

the new maize variety. The analytical tools used include descriptive statistics, regression model; risk utility functions and risk parameter analysis. The result showed that invasion by animals, disease and pest, lack of access to credit wind and price fluctuation were the major risk facing the maize......This study analyzed risk by gender in innovation in Kwara state, Nigeria, using downy mildew resistant maize production as case study. The study employed primary and secondary data. The primary data were collected from well-structured questionnaires administered to both male and female producing...... producers in the area in the usage of the new innovation. The study also revealed that male producers were willing to take risk in the new maize variety production than the female, while the females were more indifferent to the risk involved in the new maize production variety than males. None...

Quantitative analysis of residual protein contamination of podiatry instruments reprocessed through local and central decontamination units.

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Gordon Wg; Goldie, Frank; Long, Steven; Lappin, David F; Ramage, Gordon; Smith, Andrew J

2011-01-10

The cleaning stage of the instrument decontamination process has come under increased scrutiny due to the increasing complexity of surgical instruments and the adverse affects of residual protein contamination on surgical instruments. Instruments used in the podiatry field have a complex surface topography and are exposed to a wide range of biological contamination. Currently, podiatry instruments are reprocessed locally within surgeries while national strategies are favouring a move toward reprocessing in central facilities. The aim of this study was to determine the efficacy of local and central reprocessing on podiatry instruments by measuring residual protein contamination of instruments reprocessed by both methods. The residual protein of 189 instruments reprocessed centrally and 189 instruments reprocessed locally was determined using a fluorescent assay based on the reaction of proteins with o-phthaldialdehyde/sodium 2-mercaptoethanesulfonate. Residual protein was detected on 72% (n = 136) of instruments reprocessed centrally and 90% (n = 170) of instruments reprocessed locally. Significantly less protein (p podiatry instruments when protein contamination is considered, though no significant difference was found in residual protein between local decontamination unit and central decontamination unit processes for Blacks files. Further research is needed to undertake qualitative identification of protein contamination to identify any cross contamination risks and a standard for acceptable residual protein contamination applicable to different instruments and specialities should be considered as a matter of urgency.

Key attributes of the SAPHIRE risk and reliability analysis software for risk-informed probabilistic applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, Curtis; Knudsen, James; Kvarfordt, Kellie; Wood, Ted

2008-01-01

The Idaho National Laboratory is a primary developer of probabilistic risk and reliability analysis (PRRA) tools, dating back over 35 years. Evolving from mainframe-based software, the current state-of-the-practice has led to the creation of the SAPHIRE software. Currently, agencies such as the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the National Aeronautics and Aerospace Agency, the Department of Energy, and the Department of Defense use version 7 of the SAPHIRE software for many of their risk-informed activities. In order to better understand and appreciate the power of software as part of risk-informed applications, we need to recall that our current analysis methods and solution methods have built upon pioneering work done 30-40 years ago. We contrast this work with the current capabilities in the SAPHIRE analysis package. As part of this discussion, we provide information for both the typical features and special analysis capabilities, which are available. We also present the application and results typically found with state-of-the-practice PRRA models. By providing both a high-level and detailed look at the SAPHIRE software, we give a snapshot in time for the current use of software tools in a risk-informed decision arena

A scenario-based procedure for seismic risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kluegel, J.-U.; Mualchin, L.; Panza, G.F.

2006-12-01

A new methodology for seismic risk analysis based on probabilistic interpretation of deterministic or scenario-based hazard analysis, in full compliance with the likelihood principle and therefore meeting the requirements of modern risk analysis, has been developed. The proposed methodology can easily be adjusted to deliver its output in a format required for safety analysts and civil engineers. The scenario-based approach allows the incorporation of all available information collected in a geological, seismotectonic and geotechnical database of the site of interest as well as advanced physical modelling techniques to provide a reliable and robust deterministic design basis for civil infrastructures. The robustness of this approach is of special importance for critical infrastructures. At the same time a scenario-based seismic hazard analysis allows the development of the required input for probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) as required by safety analysts and insurance companies. The scenario-based approach removes the ambiguity in the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) which relies on the projections of Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) equation. The problems in the validity of G-R projections, because of incomplete to total absence of data for making the projections, are still unresolved. Consequently, the information from G-R must not be used in decisions for design of critical structures or critical elements in a structure. The scenario-based methodology is strictly based on observable facts and data and complemented by physical modelling techniques, which can be submitted to a formalised validation process. By means of sensitivity analysis, knowledge gaps related to lack of data can be dealt with easily, due to the limited amount of scenarios to be investigated. The proposed seismic risk analysis can be used with confidence for planning, insurance and engineering applications. (author)

Acid-suppressive drugs and risk of kidney disease: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Qiu, Tingting; Zhou, Junwen; Zhang, Chao

2018-04-12

More concerns had been raised about the risk of kidney disease (KD) associated with acid-suppressive drugs (ASDs). But whether they could directly increase such risk remained unclear. Meta-analysis was conducted to comprehensively investigate this relationship. PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and three Chinese databases were searched until April 2017 for observational studies investigating the associations between ASDs and KD. Pooled log (odds ratios, ORs) or log (hazard ratios, HRs) with standard errors for KD risk were calculated using the generic inverse variance method and random-effect model. Ten studies involving 128,020 KD patients were included. Proton pump inhibitor (PPI) therapy was associated with higher risks of acute interstitial nephritis (AIN) (OR, 2.78; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.25-6.17), acute kidney injury (AKI) (HR, 1.85; 95% CI, 1.33-2.59), chronic kidney disease (CKD) (HR, 1.47; 95% CI, 1.03-2.09), and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) (HR, 1.61; 95% CI, 1.26-2.04) than non-PPI therapy. Additionally, PPI significantly increased the risks of AKI (HR, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.16-1.51), CKD (HR, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.24-1.33) and ESRD (HR, 1.96; 95% CI, 1.21-3.17) compared to histamine 2 receptor antagonist (H 2 RA). Relationship between H 2 RA therapy and AKI (OR, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.90-1.07) or CKD (OR, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.89-1.11) was not found. PPI therapy significantly increased the risks of AIN, AKI, CKD and ESRD. Similar risks were not identified for H 2 RA therapy. More clinical trials are needed to confirm our findings. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Risk of tumor transmission after thoracic allograft transplantation from adult donors with central nervous system neoplasm-A UNOS database study.

Science.gov (United States)

Hynes, Conor F; Ramakrishnan, Karthik; Alfares, Fahad A; Endicott, Kendal M; Hammond-Jack, Katrina; Zurakowski, David; Jonas, Richard A; Nath, Dilip S

2017-04-01

We analyzed the UNOS database to better define the risk of transmission of central nervous system (CNS) tumors from donors to adult recipients of thoracic organs. Data were procured from the Standard Transplant Analysis and Research dataset files. Donors with CNS tumors were identified, and recipients from these donors comprised the study group (Group I). The remaining recipients of organs from donors who did not have CNS tumors formed the control group (Group II). Incidence of recipient CNS tumors, donor-related malignancies, and overall survival were calculated and compared in addition to multivariable logistic regression. A cohort of 58 314 adult thoracic organ recipients were included, of which 337 received organs from donors who had documented CNS tumors (Group I). None of these recipients developed CNS tumors at a median follow-up of 72 months (IR: 30-130 months). Although overall mortality in terms of the percentage was higher in Group I than Group II (163/320=51% vs 22 123/52 691=42%), Kaplan-Meier curves indicate no significant difference in the time to death between the two groups (P=.92). There is little risk of transmission of the common nonaggressive CNS tumors to recipients of thoracic organs. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Central obesity and atherogenic dyslipidemia in metabolic syndrome are associated with increased risk for colorectal adenoma in a Chinese population

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lin Tsann

2010-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Metabolic syndrome (MetS is composed of cardiovascular risk factors including insulin resistance, obesity, dyslipidemia, and hypertension. Most of the components of MetS have been linked to the development of neoplasm. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the relationship between individual components of MetS and colorectal adenoma. Methods The study subjects were recruited from a pool of 4872 individuals who underwent a health check-up examination during the period January 2006 to May 2008. Each participant fulfilled a structured questionnaire. MetS was defined based on the America Heart Association and National Heart Lung Blood Institute criteria. Subjects with history of colon cancer, colon polyps, colitis, or prior colonic surgery were excluded. Results A total of 4122 subjects were included for final analysis (2367 men and 1755 women; mean age, 49.6 ± 11.7 years. Of them, MetS was diagnosed in 708 men (29.9% and in 367 women (20.9%. Among the patients with MetS, 34.6% had adenoma, 31.7% had hyperplastic polyps and 23.3% were polyp-free (p Conclusions Of the components of MetS analyzed in this study, central obesity and dyslipidemia are independent risk factors for colorectal adenoma. With regard to the prevention of colorectal neoplasm, life-style modification such as weight reduction is worthwhile.

Interaction of CREDO [Centralized Reliability Data Organization] with the EBR-II [Experimental Breeder Reactor II] PRA [probabilistic risk assessment] development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, M.S.; Ragland, W.A.

1989-01-01

The National Academy of Sciences review of US Department of Energy (DOE) class 1 reactors recommended that the Experimental Breeder Reactor II (EBR-II), operated by Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), develop a level 1 probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and make provisions for level 2 and level 3 PRAs based on the results of the level 1 PRA. The PRA analysis group at ANL will utilize the Centralized Reliability Data Organization (CREDO) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory to support the PRA data needs. CREDO contains many years of empirical liquid-metal reactor component data from EBR-II. CREDO is a mutual data- and cost-sharing system sponsored by DOE and the Power Reactor and Nuclear Fuels Development Corporation of Japan. CREDO is a component based data system; data are collected on components that are liquid-metal specific, associated with a liquid-metal environment, contained in systems that interface with liquid-metal environments, or are safety related for use in reliability/availability/maintainability (RAM) analyses of advanced reactors. The links between the EBR-II PRA development effort and the CREDO data collection at EBR-II extend beyond the sharing of data. The PRA provides a measure of the relative contribution to risk of the various components. This information can be used to prioritize future CREDO data collection activities at EBR-II and other sites

The analysis of export commodity competitiveness in Central Java Province at period 2011-2015

Science.gov (United States)

Elysi, M. G.; Darsono; Riptanti, E. W.

2018-03-01

This study aims to determine the competitiveness of furniture export in Central Java Province Indonesia in terms of comparative and competitive advantages and to formulate the strategies to enhance the competitiveness of furniture export in Central Java Province. Descriptive analytic method was used for this research. Data used in this research are primary and secondary data. Data were analyzed using RCA (Revealed Comparative Advantage), TSI (Trade Specialization Index) and SOAR (Strength, Opportunity, Aspiration, Result). The results showed that furniture commodity in Central Java Province had strong comparative competitiveness with the value of RCA>1 and had strong competitiveness with positive index values in the range of 0 to 1. Based on SOAR analysis, strategy measures can be formulated, namely maintaining the existing and expanding targeted markets, improving product designs (innovations) and improving raw materials efficiency.

Contested Communication; A Critical Analysis of Central Bank Speech

NARCIS (Netherlands)

L.H.J. Noordegraaf-Eelens (Liesbeth)

2010-01-01

textabstractThe more important words become, the more difficult it is to say things. This is the central message of this study on the communication by central bank presidents. Since the end of the twentieth century, central bank presidents see communication as an important means to influence

[Centralization in obstetrics: pros and cons].

Science.gov (United States)

Roemer, V M; Ramb, S

1996-01-01

Possible advantages and disadvantages of a general centralization of German obstetric facilities are analysed in the study. The need for centralization of risk cases, especially premature births (regionalization) is pointed out. Centralization appears appropriate, since every fifth maternity unit in Germany (19.78%) has 300 or fewer deliveries per year. This one fifth of perinatal clinics accounts for 6.3% of all deliveries (N = 49450). There are appreciable differences between the old and new federal states (Bundesländer): in the recently acceded federal states, 48.7% of all perinatal clinics have deliveries of 300 and less per year. This group of perinatal clinics accounts for 29% of all deliveries in the new federal states. We have carried out a survey of the mother's attitude to centralization: out of 416 patients in the Detmold women's hospital whose mean age was 29.0 +/- 4.2 years, 90.4% were not in favor of general centralization of obstetrics. 43% were also against a centralization of risk cases (regionalization). 75% of the women surveyed objected to centralized obstetrics because of the 'possible absence of the family', the 'possible absence of students and trainees' (44.9%), the 'unfamiliarity with staff and premises' (41.8%) and 'fear of anonymity' (44.5%). The majority of all women (84.1%) did not want to have a drive more than 20 km to an obstetrics center. Fear of 'delivery in a taxi'(78.6%), the 'fear that the husband will come too late to the delivery' (65.4%) and that the 'overall course of the delivery might not be adequate for reasons of time'. The presence of a pediatrics department in conjunction with the perinatal clinic was rated very positively (93%). It is concluded from the data and further juridical considerations that centralization of risk cases (regionalization) is indispensable in the near future and that somewhat more further into the future decentralization should be carried out by closing obstetrics departments with substantially

Safety analysis and risk assessment handbook

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peterson, V.L.; Colwell, R.G.; Dickey, R.L.

1997-01-01

This Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) provides guidance to the safety analyst at the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site (RFETS) in the preparation of safety analyses and risk assessments. Although the older guidance (the Rocky Flats Risk Assessment Guide) continues to be used for updating the Final Safety Analysis Reports developed in the mid-1980s, this new guidance is used with all new authorization basis documents. With the mission change at RFETS came the need to establish new authorization basis documents for its facilities, whose functions had changed. The methodology and databases for performing the evaluations that support the new authorization basis documents had to be standardized, to avoid the use of different approaches and/or databases for similar accidents in different facilities. This handbook presents this new standardized approach. The handbook begins with a discussion of the requirements of the different types of authorization basis documents and how to choose the one appropriate for the facility to be evaluated. It then walks the analyst through the process of identifying all the potential hazards in the facility, classifying them, and choosing the ones that need to be analyzed further. It then discusses the methods for evaluating accident initiation and progression and covers the basic steps in a safety analysis, including consequence and frequency binning and risk ranking. The handbook lays out standardized approaches for determining the source terms of the various accidents (including airborne release fractions, leakpath factors, etc.), the atmospheric dispersion factors appropriate for Rocky Flats, and the methods for radiological and chemical consequence assessments. The radiological assessments use a radiological open-quotes templateclose quotes, a spreadsheet that incorporates the standard values of parameters, whereas the chemical assessments use the standard codes ARCHIE and ALOHA

Integrated Risk-Capability Analysis under Deep Uncertainty : An ESDMA Approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pruyt, E.; Kwakkel, J.H.

2012-01-01

Integrated risk-capability analysis methodologies for dealing with increasing degrees of complexity and deep uncertainty are urgently needed in an ever more complex and uncertain world. Although scenario approaches, risk assessment methods, and capability analysis methods are used, few organizations

Uric acid association with pulsatile and steady components of central and peripheral blood pressures.

Science.gov (United States)

Lepeytre, Fanny; Lavoie, Pierre-Luc; Troyanov, Stéphan; Madore, François; Agharazii, Mohsen; Goupil, Rémi

2018-03-01

Whether the cardiovascular risk attributed to elevated uric acid levels may be explained by changes in central and peripheral pulsatile and/or steady blood pressure (BP) components remains controversial. In a cross-sectional analysis of normotensive and untreated hypertensive participants of the CARTaGENE populational cohort, we examined the relationship between uric acid, and both pulsatile and steady components of peripheral and central BP, using sex-stratified linear regressions. Of the 20 004 participants, 10 161 individuals without antihypertensive or uric acid-lowering drugs had valid pulse wave analysis and serum uric acid levels. In multivariate analysis, pulsatile components of BP were not associated with uric acid levels, whereas steady components [mean BP (MBP), peripheral and central DBP] were all associated with higher levels of uric acid levels in women and men (all P uric acid levels but not for MBP-adjusted cSBP. Peripheral and cSBP, which are aggregate measures of pulsatile and steady BP, were also associated with uric acid levels in women (β = 0.063 and 0.072, respectively, both P uric acid levels. Serum uric acid levels appear to be associated with both central and peripheral steady but not pulsatile BP, regardless of sex.

Risk analysis for nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koelzer, W.

1983-01-01

The German risk analysis program for nuclear power plants aiming at the man and the environment is presented. An accident consequence model to calculate the radiological impact and the potential health effects is described. (E.G.) [pt

Risk factors for radiation-induced hypothyroidism: A Literature-Based Meta-Analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vogelius, Ivan R; Bentzen, Søren; Maraldo, Maja V

2011-01-01

BACKGROUND: A systematic overview and meta-analysis of studies reporting data on hypothyroidism (HT) after radiation therapy was conducted to identify risk factors for development of HT. METHODS: Published studies were identified from the PubMed and Embase databases and by hand-searching published...... reviews. Studies allowing the extraction of odds ratios (OR) for HT in 1 or more of several candidate clinical risk groups were included. A meta-analysis of the OR for development of HT with or without each of the candidate risk factors was performed. Furthermore, studies allowing the extraction......% risk of HT at a dose of 45 Gy but with considerable variation in the dose response between studies. Chemotherapy and age were not associated with risk of HT in this analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Several clinical risk factors for HT were identified. The risk of HT increases with increasing radiation dose...

Approach to uncertainty in risk analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rish, W.R.

1988-08-01

In the Fall of 1985 EPA's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) initiated a project to develop a formal approach to dealing with uncertainties encountered when estimating and evaluating risks to human health and the environment. Based on a literature review of modeling uncertainty, interviews with ORP technical and management staff, and input from experts on uncertainty analysis, a comprehensive approach was developed. This approach recognizes by design the constraints on budget, time, manpower, expertise, and availability of information often encountered in ''real world'' modeling. It is based on the observation that in practice risk modeling is usually done to support a decision process. As such, the approach focuses on how to frame a given risk modeling problem, how to use that framing to select an appropriate mixture of uncertainty analyses techniques, and how to integrate the techniques into an uncertainty assessment that effectively communicates important information and insight to decision-makers. The approach is presented in this report. Practical guidance on characterizing and analyzing uncertainties about model form and quantities and on effectively communicating uncertainty analysis results is included. Examples from actual applications are presented.

Approach to uncertainty in risk analysis