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Sample records for risk analysis central

  1. Multi-Disaster Risk Analysis of Klaten Regency, Central Java, Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Candra Dian Lukita Tauhid

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Klaten Regency is located in Central Java Province, Indonesia, ranked as 19th most susceptible area in Indonesia. Among of many disasters those take place in Klaten are floods, landslides, and earthquake, which cause damages and loss of lives. Unfortunately, some areas in Klaten Regency are also very vulnerable to the disasters that often contribute severe damage and loss. This paper presents result of risk analysis due to floods, landslides and earthquake disaster at Klaten Regency. Several parameters or criteria are utilized to describe the level of the disaster intensities. The flood susceptibility parameters are the Topographic Wet Index (TWI, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI, permeability and roughness, as proposed by Kafira, et al. (2015. The landslide susceptibility are the geology, slope, elevation, distance from fault, distance from rivers, rainfall and land use, as suggested by Thearith (2009 whereas the earthquake susceptibility was referred to FEMA P-154 by using the Ss and S1. The vulnerability and risk analysis are carried out by referring to the parameters as stipulated by the Chief Regulation of the National Board of Disaster Management No.2 Year 2012 (Perka Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana- BNPB, concerning the parameters being used for the vulnerability analysis, i.e. population density, poverty ratio, land use, and level of Gross Regional Domestic Product. Further spatial analysis of the risk performs the multi-disaster risk map as a combination between the floods, landslides and earthquake disaster risk in Klaten Regency. The established multi-disaster risk map shows the risk level in the Klaten Regency, i.e., 16.31% at very low risk, 33.01% at low risk, 34.49% at medium risk, at 14.22% high risk and 1.97% at very high risk.

  2. Geostatistical analysis of the flood risk perception queries in the village of Navaluenga (Central Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guardiola-Albert, Carolina; Díez-Herrero, Andrés; Amérigo, María; García, Juan Antonio; María Bodoque, José; Fernández-Naranjo, Nuria

    2017-04-01

    Flash floods provoke a high average mortality as they are usually unexpected events which evolve rapidly and affect relatively small areas. The short time available for minimizing risks requires preparedness and response actions to be put into practice. Therefore, it is necessary the development of emergency response plans to evacuate and rescue people in the context of a flash-flood hazard. In this framework, risk management has to integrate the social dimension of flash-flooding and its spatial distribution by understanding the characteristics of local communities in order to enhance community resilience during a flash-flood. In this regard, the flash-flood social risk perception of the village of Navaluenga (Central Spain) has been recently assessed, as well as the level of awareness of civil protection and emergency management strategies (Bodoque et al., 2016). This has been done interviewing 254 adults, representing roughly 12% of the population census. The present study wants to go further in the analysis of the resulting questionnaires, incorporating in the analysis the location of home spatial coordinates in order to characterize the spatial distribution and possible geographical interpretation of flood risk perception. We apply geostatistical methods to analyze spatial relations of social risk perception and level of awareness with distance to the rivers (Alberche and Chorrerón) or to the flood-prone areas (50-year, 100-year and 500-year flood plains). We want to discover spatial patterns, if any, using correlation functions (variograms). Geostatistical analyses results can help to either confirm the logical pattern (i.e., less awareness further to the rivers or high return period of flooding) or reveal departures from expected. It can also be possible to identify hot spots, cold spots, and spatial outliers. The interpretation of these spatial patterns can give valuable information to define strategies to improve the awareness regarding preparedness and

  3. Analysis of risk factors and the establishment of a risk model for peripherally inserted central catheter thrombosis

    OpenAIRE

    Fang Hu; Ruo-Nan Hao; Jie Zhang; Zhi-Cheng Ma

    2016-01-01

    Objective: To investigate the main risk factors of peripherally inserted central catheter (PICC) related upper extremity deep venous thrombosis and establish the risk predictive model of PICC-related upper extremity deep venous thrombosis. Methods: Patients with PICC who were hospitalized between January 2014 and July 2015 were studied retrospectively; they were divided into a thrombosis group (n = 52), with patients who had a venous thrombosis complication after PICC, and a no-thrombosis ...

  4. Extinction Risk of Pseudotsuga Menziesii Populations in the Central Region of Mexico: An AHP Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javier López-Upton

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Within the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP framework, a hierarchical model was created considering anthropogenic, genetic and ecological criteria and sub-criteria that directly affect Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb. risk of extinction in central Mexico. The sub-criteria values were standardized, weighted, and ordered by importance in a pairwise comparison matrix; the model was mathematically integrated to quantify the degree of extinction risk for each of the 29 populations present in the study area. The results indicate diverse levels of risk for the populations, ranging from very low to very high. Estanzuela, Presa Jaramillo, Peñas Cargadas and Plan del Baile populations have very low risk, with values less than 0.25. On the other hand, Vicente Guerrero, Morán, Minatitlán, La Garita and Tonalapa populations have very high risk (>0.35 because they are heavily influenced by anthropogenic (close to roads and towns, ecological (presence of exotic species and little or no natural regeneration and genetic (presence of mature to overmature trees and geographic isolation factors. In situ conservation activities, prioritizing their implementation in populations at most risk is highly recommended; in addition, germplasm collection for use of assisted gene flow and migration approaches, including artificial reforestation, should be considered in these locations.

  5. The risk of bloodstream infection associated with peripherally inserted central catheters compared with central venous catheters in adults: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chopra, Vineet; O'Horo, John C; Rogers, Mary A M; Maki, Dennis G; Safdar, Nasia

    2013-09-01

    Peripherally inserted central catheters (PICCs) are associated with central line-associated bloodstream infection (CLABSI). The magnitude of this risk relative to central venous catheters (CVCs) is unknown. To compare risk of CLABSI between PICCs and CVCs. MEDLINE, CinAHL, Scopus, EmBASE, and Cochrane CENTRAL were searched. Full-text studies comparing the risk of CLABSI between PICCs and CVCs were included. Studies involving adults 18 years of age or older who underwent insertion of a PICC or a CVC and reported CLABSI were included in our analysis. Studies were evaluated using the Downs and Black scale for risk of bias. Random effects meta-analyses were used to generate summary estimates of CLABSI risk in patients with PICCs versus CVCs. Of 1,185 studies identified, 23 studies involving 57,250 patients met eligibility criteria. Twenty of 23 eligible studies reported the total number of CLABSI episodes in patients with PICCs and CVCs. Pooled meta-analyses of these studies revealed that PICCs were associated with a lower risk of CLABSI than were CVCs (relative risk [RR], 0.62; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.40-0.94). Statistical heterogeneity prompted subgroup analysis, which demonstrated that CLABSI reduction was greatest in outpatients (RR [95% CI], 0.22 [0.18-0.27]) compared with hospitalized patients who received PICCs (RR [95% CI], 0.73 [0.54-0.98]). Thirteen of the included 23 studies reported CLABSI per catheter-day. Within these studies, PICC-related CLABSI occurred as frequently as CLABSI from CVCs (incidence rate ratio [95% CI], 0.91 [0.46-1.79]). Only 1 randomized trial met inclusion criteria. CLABSI definition and infection prevention strategies were variably reported. Few studies reported infections by catheter-days. Although PICCs are associated with a lower risk of CLABSI than CVCs in outpatients, hospitalized patients may be just as likely to experience CLABSI with PICCs as with CVCs. Consideration of risks and benefits before PICC use in inpatient

  6. Risk of venous thromboembolism associated with peripherally inserted central catheters: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chopra, Vineet; Anand, Sarah; Hickner, Andy; Buist, Michael; Rogers, Mary Am; Saint, Sanjay; Flanders, Scott A

    2013-07-27

    Peripherally inserted central catheters (PICCs) are associated with an increased risk of venous thromboembolism. However, the size of this risk relative to that associated with other central venous catheters (CVCs) is unknown. We did a systematic review and meta-analysis to compare the risk of venous thromboembolism associated with PICCs versus that associated with other CVCs. We searched several databases, including Medline, Embase, Biosis, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Conference Papers Index, and Scopus. Additional studies were identified through hand searches of bibliographies and internet searches, and we contacted study authors to obtain unpublished data. All human studies published in full text, abstract, or poster form were eligible for inclusion. All studies were of adult patients aged at least 18 years who underwent insertion of a PICC. Studies were assessed with the Newcastle-Ottawa risk of bias scale. In studies without a comparison group, the pooled frequency of venous thromboembolism was calculated for patients receiving PICCs. In studies comparing PICCs with other CVCs, summary odds ratios (ORs) were calculated with a random effects meta-analysis. Of the 533 citations identified, 64 studies (12 with a comparison group and 52 without) including 29 503 patients met the eligibility criteria. In the non-comparison studies, the weighted frequency of PICC-related deep vein thrombosis was highest in patients who were critically ill (13·91%, 95% CI 7·68-20·14) and those with cancer (6·67%, 4·69-8·64). Our meta-analysis of 11 studies comparing the risk of deep vein thrombosis related to PICCs with that related to CVCs showed that PICCs were associated with an increased risk of deep vein thrombosis (OR 2·55, 1·54-4·23, p<0·0001) but not pulmonary embolism (no events). With the baseline PICC-related deep vein thrombosis rate of 2·7% and pooled OR of 2·55, the number needed to harm relative to CVCs was 26 (95% CI 13-71). PICCs are

  7. Incidence and mechanism of central pontine myelinolysis based on analysis of MRI images and risk factors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kondo, Masato [Akita Univ. (Japan). School of Medicine

    2000-02-01

    In this study, the incidence of central pontine myelinolysis (CPM)-like lesions on MRI images was studied in 1917 subjects, 1,500 of which were psychiatric patients and 417 were patients attending a brain health examination. The CPM-like lesions were first classified into four groups based on the characteristics of their MRI images: group 1 showed symmetrical lesions on both T1 low and T2 high images and were considered to be typical CPM; group 2 showed symmetrical high intensity lesions only on T2 images; group 3 had asymmetrical lesions only on T2 images; and group 4 had asymmetrical lesions on both T1 low and T2 high images. Furthermore, the relationships of each group with particular risk factors, such as alcoholism, hypertension, hyperlipidemia were statistically analysed. The cause of CPM-like features in the MRI images were discussed. Among our subjects, the incidence of CPM-like lesions was 3.8%, and that of group 1 was 1.2%. Significant correlations between group 1 and alcoholism, and group 3 and 4 with brain ischemic lesions were observed. A previous hypothesis that group 2 may be a premature state of CPM is not supported by our results. (author)

  8. Incidence and mechanism of central pontine myelinolysis based on analysis of MRI images and risk factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kondo, Masato

    2000-01-01

    In this study, the incidence of central pontine myelinolysis (CPM)-like lesions on MRI images was studied in 1917 subjects, 1,500 of which were psychiatric patients and 417 were patients attending a brain health examination. The CPM-like lesions were first classified into four groups based on the characteristics of their MRI images: group 1 showed symmetrical lesions on both T1 low and T2 high images and were considered to be typical CPM; group 2 showed symmetrical high intensity lesions only on T2 images; group 3 had asymmetrical lesions only on T2 images; and group 4 had asymmetrical lesions on both T1 low and T2 high images. Furthermore, the relationships of each group with particular risk factors, such as alcoholism, hypertension, hyperlipidemia were statistically analysed. The cause of CPM-like features in the MRI images were discussed. Among our subjects, the incidence of CPM-like lesions was 3.8%, and that of group 1 was 1.2%. Significant correlations between group 1 and alcoholism, and group 3 and 4 with brain ischemic lesions were observed. A previous hypothesis that group 2 may be a premature state of CPM is not supported by our results. (author)

  9. Risk analysis of first and last frost occurrences in central Alborz region, Iran

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rahimi, M.; Khalili, A.; Hajjam, S.; Kamali, G.A.; Stigter, C.J.

    2007-01-01

    Central Alborz is one of the important agricultural regions of Iran. Occurrence of the first frost in fall and the last frost in spring causes damage to the crops in this region every year. Information about the probable dates of frost occurrence helps farmers in preventing or reducing the damages

  10. Analysis of various risk factors affecting potentially malignant disorders and oral cancer patients of Central India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vidya Kadashetti

    2015-01-01

    Conclusions: Chewing tobacco/betel quid is a strong risk factor in the development of PMD and oral cancer. Also age, gender, SES, education, and occupation influence the development of PMD and oral cancer.

  11. Risk Factors for Central and Branch Retinal Vein Occlusion: A Meta-Analysis of Published Clinical Data

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    Petr Kolar

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Retinal vein occlusion (RVO is a major cause of vision loss. Of the two main types of RVO, branch retinal vein occlusion (BRVO is 4 to 6 times more prevalent than central retinal vein occlusion (CRVO. A basic risk factor for RVO is advancing age. Further risk factors include systemic conditions like hypertension, arteriosclerosis, diabetes mellitus, hyperlipidemia, vascular cerebral stroke, blood hyperviscosity, and thrombophilia. A strong risk factor for RVO is the metabolic syndrome (hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and hyperlipidemia. Individuals with end-organ damage caused by diabetes mellitus and hypertension have greatly increased risk for RVO. Socioeconomic status seems to be a risk factor too. American blacks are more often diagnosed with RVO than non-Hispanic whites. Females are, according to some studies, at lower risk than men. The role of thrombophilic risk factors in RVO is still controversial. Congenital thrombophilic diseases like factor V Leiden mutation, hyperhomocysteinemia and anticardiolipin antibodies increase the risk of RVO. Cigarette smoking also increases the risk of RVO as do systemic inflammatory conditions like vasculitis and Behcet disease. Ophthalmic risk factors for RVO are ocular hypertension and glaucoma, higher ocular perfusion pressure, and changes in the retinal arteries.

  12. Risk Mapping and Situational Analysis of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in an Endemic Area of Central Iran: A GIS-Based Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abedi-Astaneh, Fatemeh; Hajjaran, Homa; Yaghoobi-Ershadi, Mohammad Reza; Hanafi-Bojd, Ahmad Ali; Mohebali, Mehdi; Shirzadi, Mohammad Reza; Rassi, Yavar; Akhavan, Amir Ahmad; Mahmoudi, Bagher

    2016-01-01

    Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is among the top 10 infectious disease priorities in the world, and the leading cause of morbidity in Iran. The present study was conducted to assess the risk of CL, and to determine some epidemiological features of the disease in endemic areas of Qom Province in Central Iran during 2009 to 2013. Data regarding human cases of the disease were obtained from the Qom Province Health Center, prepared and stored in a spatial database created in ArcGIS10.3. A total of 9 out of 212 Leishmania spp. positive slides taken in 2013 from patients residing in Qom city were examined using molecular methods and the species of Leishmania was identified by PCR-RFLP. Those 9 patients had no history of travel outside the city. Spatial analysis and clustering methods were applied to find major hot spots and susceptible areas for the establishment of novel foci of the disease. Transmission patterns were examined for spatial autocorrelation using the Moran's I statistical application, and for the clustering of high or low values using the Getis-Ord Gi* statistics. During the period of study, a total of 1767 CL cases were passively reported in the area, out of which were 65% males and 35% females. The highest and lowest numbers of cases were reported in 2010 and 2013, respectively. Importantly, 979 cases were reported from urban areas, while the remainder came from rural areas. Leishmania major was detected as the causative agent of CL in the city of Qom. Remarkably, most patients recorded in Qom city were associated with a history of travel to the endemic areas of CL within the province, or to other endemic areas of the disease in Iran. Spatial distribution of CL cases revealed northeastern and southwestern quarters of the city were the major hot spots of the disease (P<0.05). Hot spot and CL transmission risk analysis across the province indicated that more than 40 villages were located in high and very high risk areas of CL transmission. Due to the

  13. Risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baron, J.H.; Nunez McLeod, J.; Rivera, S.S.

    1997-01-01

    This book contains a selection of research works performed in the CEDIAC Institute (Cuyo National University) in the area of Risk Analysis, with specific orientations to the subjects of uncertainty and sensitivity studies, software reliability, severe accident modeling, etc. This volume presents important material for all those researches who want to have an insight in the risk analysis field, as a tool to solution several problems frequently found in the engineering and applied sciences field, as well as for the academic teachers who want to keep up to date, including the new developments and improvements continuously arising in this field [es

  14. Risk Premium and Central Bank Intervention

    OpenAIRE

    Pinar Ozlu

    2006-01-01

    This study examines the relation between the risk premium and central bank intervention. Forward rates are calculated for the Turkish Lira-USD exchange market and then the effect of central bank intervention on the risk premium is estimated. Using high quality daily intervention data from the Central Bank of Turkey as well as implied forward rates, an MA (21)-GARCH (1,1) model is estimated. Both purchases and sales of US dollars by the Central Bank of Turkey appear to have no effect on the si...

  15. Morphometric Analysis to Prioritize Sub-Watershed for Flood Risk Assessment in Central Karakoram National Park Using Gis/rs Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Syed, N. H.; Rehman, A. A.; Hussain, D.; Ishaq, S.; Khan, A. A.

    2017-11-01

    Morphometric analysis is vital for any watershed investigation and it is inevitable for flood risk assessment in sub-watershed basins. Present study undertaken to carry out critical evaluation and assessment of sub watershed morphological parameters for flood risk assessment of Central Karakorum National Park (CKNP), where Geographical information system and remote sensing (GIS & RS) approach used for quantifying the parameter and mapping of sub watershed units. ASTER DEM used as a geo-spatial data for watershed delineation and stream network. Morphometric analysis carried out using spatial analyst tool of ArcGIS 10.2. The parameters included were bifurcation ratio (Rb), Drainage Texture (Rt), Circulatory ratio (Rc), Elongated ratio (Re), Drainage density (Dd), Stream Length (Lu), Stream order (Su), Slope and Basin length (Lb) have calculated separately. The analysis revealed that the stream order varies from order 1 to 6 and the total numbers of stream segments of all orders were 52. Multi criteria analysis process used to calculate the risk factor. As an accomplished result, map of sub watershed prioritization developed using weighted standardized risk factor. These results helped to understand sensitivity of flush floods in different sub watersheds of the study area and leaded to better management of the mountainous regions in prospect of flush floods.

  16. Risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Correa Lizarazu, X.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation Colombia risk evaluation experiences, sanitarian regulations evolution, chemical dangers food, biological dangers food, codex alimentarius, trade, industrial effects, dangers identification, data collection and risk profile

  17. Integrating natural disturbances and management activities to examine risks and opportunities in the central Oregon landscape analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miles A. Hemstrom; James Merzenich; Theresa Burcsu; Janet Ohmann; Ryan Singleton

    2010-01-01

    We used state and transition models to integrate natural disturbances and management activities for a 275 000-ha landscape in the central Oregon Cascades. The landscape consists of a diverse mix of land ownerships, land use allocations, and environments. Three different management scenarios were developed from public input: (1) no management except wildfire suppression...

  18. Information security risk analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Peltier, Thomas R

    2001-01-01

    Effective Risk AnalysisQualitative Risk AnalysisValue AnalysisOther Qualitative MethodsFacilitated Risk Analysis Process (FRAP)Other Uses of Qualitative Risk AnalysisCase StudyAppendix A: QuestionnaireAppendix B: Facilitated Risk Analysis Process FormsAppendix C: Business Impact Analysis FormsAppendix D: Sample of ReportAppendix E: Threat DefinitionsAppendix F: Other Risk Analysis OpinionsIndex

  19. Foundations of Risk Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Aven, Terje

    2012-01-01

    Foundations of Risk Analysis presents the issues core to risk analysis - understanding what risk means, expressing risk, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real problems. The author provides the readers with the knowledge and basic thinking they require to successfully manage risk and uncertainty to support decision making. This updated edition reflects recent developments on risk and uncertainty concepts, representations and treatment. New material in Foundations of Risk Analysis includes:An up to date presentation of how to understand, define and

  20. Oil-spill risk analysis: Central and western Gulf of Mexico Outer Continental Shelf, Lease Sales 139 and 141. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, W.R.; Lear, E.M.

    1992-02-01

    The Federal Government has proposed to offer Outer Continental Shelf lands in the Gulf of Mexico for oil and gas leasing. Because oil spills may occur from activities associated with offshore oil production, the Minerals Management Service conducts a formal risk assessment. The effects of oil spills that could occur during oil and gas production must be considered. The report summarizes results of an oil spill risk analysis conducted for the proposed Gulf of Mexico Outer Continental Shelf Lease Sales 139 and 141

  1. Observations on risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, W.A. Jr.

    1979-11-01

    This paper briefly describes WASH 1400 and the Lewis report. It attempts to define basic concepts such as risk and risk analysis, common mode failure, and rare event. Several probabilistic models which go beyond the WASH 1400 methodology are introduced; the common characteristic of these models is that they recognize explicitly that risk analysis is time dependent whereas WASH 1400 takes a per demand failure rate approach which obscures the important fact that accidents are time related. Further, the presentation of a realistic risk analysis should recognize that there are various risks which compete with one another for the lives of the individuals at risk. A way of doing this is suggested

  2. Infectious exposure in the first years of life and risk of central nervous system tumours in children: analysis of birth order, childcare attendance and seasonality of birth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, L S; Kamper-Jørgensen, M; Schmiegelow, K; Johansen, C; Lähteenmäki, P; Träger, C; Stokland, T; Grell, K; Gustafson, G; Kogner, P; Sehested, A; Schüz, J

    2010-01-01

    Background: An infective, mostly viral basis has been found in different human cancers. To test the hypothesis of a possible infectious aetiology for central nervous system (CNS) tumours in children, we investigated the associations with proxy measures of exposure to infectious disease. Methods: In a large case–control study nested in the populations of Denmark, Norway, Sweden, and Finland of 4.4 million children, we studied the association of birth order and seasonal variation of birth with subsequent risk for CNS tumours. We identified 3983 children from the national cancer registries, and information on exposure was obtained from the high-quality national administrative health registries. We investigated the association between childcare attendance during the first 2 years of life and the risk for CNS tumours in a subset of Danish children with CNS tumours, using information from the Danish Childcare database. Results: We observed no association between birth order and risk of CNS tumours overall (odds ratio (OR) for second born or later born vs first born, 1.03; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.96–1.10) or by histological subgroup, and children with CNS tumours did not show a seasonal variation of birth that was distinct from that of the background population. Childcare attendance compared with homecare showed a slightly increased OR (1.29; 95% CI, 0.90–1.86) for CNS tumours, with the highest risk observed in children attending a crèche. The strongest association was observed for embryonal CNS tumours. We found no effect of age at enrolment or duration of enrolment in childcare. Conclusion: These results do not support the hypothesis that the burden of exposure to infectious disease in early childhood has an important role in the aetiology of paediatric CNS tumours. PMID:20461079

  3. Infectious exposure in the first years of life and risk of central nervous system tumours in children: analysis of birth order, childcare attendance and seasonality of birth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, L S; Kamper-Jørgensen, M; Schmiegelow, K; Johansen, C; Lähteenmäki, P; Träger, C; Stokland, T; Grell, K; Gustafson, G; Kogner, P; Sehested, A; Schüz, J

    2010-05-25

    An infective, mostly viral basis has been found in different human cancers. To test the hypothesis of a possible infectious aetiology for central nervous system (CNS) tumours in children, we investigated the associations with proxy measures of exposure to infectious disease. In a large case-control study nested in the populations of Denmark, Norway, Sweden, and Finland of 4.4 million children, we studied the association of birth order and seasonal variation of birth with subsequent risk for CNS tumours. We identified 3983 children from the national cancer registries, and information on exposure was obtained from the high-quality national administrative health registries. We investigated the association between childcare attendance during the first 2 years of life and the risk for CNS tumours in a subset of Danish children with CNS tumours, using information from the Danish Childcare database. We observed no association between birth order and risk of CNS tumours overall (odds ratio (OR) for second born or later born vs first born, 1.03; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.96-1.10) or by histological subgroup, and children with CNS tumours did not show a seasonal variation of birth that was distinct from that of the background population. Childcare attendance compared with homecare showed a slightly increased OR (1.29; 95% CI, 0.90-1.86) for CNS tumours, with the highest risk observed in children attending a crèche. The strongest association was observed for embryonal CNS tumours. We found no effect of age at enrolment or duration of enrolment in childcare. These results do not support the hypothesis that the burden of exposure to infectious disease in early childhood has an important role in the aetiology of paediatric CNS tumours.

  4. Assessing environmental risks for high intensity agriculture using the material flow analysis method--a case study of the Dongting Lake basin in South Central China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Guanyi; Liu, Liming; Yuan, Chengcheng

    2015-07-01

    This study primarily examined the assessment of environmental risk in high intensity agricultural areas. Dongting Lake basin was taken as a case study, which is one of the major grain producing areas in China. Using data obtained from 1989 to 2012, we applied Material Flow Analysis (MFA) to show the material consumption, pollutant output and production storage in the agricultural-environmental system and assessed the environmental risk index on the basis of the MFA results. The results predicted that the status of the environmental quality of the Dongting Lake area is unsatisfactory for the foreseeable future. The direct material input (DMI) declined by 13.9%, the domestic processed output (DPO) increased by 28.21%, the intensity of material consumption (IMC) decreased by 36.7%, the intensity of material discharge (IMD) increased by 10%, the material productivity (MP) increased by 27 times, the environmental efficiency (EE) increased by 15.31 times, and the material storage (PAS) increased by 0.23%. The DMI and DPO was higher at rural places on the edge of cities, whereas the risk of urban agriculture has arisen due to the higher increasing rate of DMI and DPO in cities compared with the counties. The composite environmental risk index increased from 0.33 to 0.96, indicating that the total environmental risk changed gradually but seriously during the 24 years assessed. The driving factors that affect environmental risk in high intensity agriculture can be divided into five classes: social, economic, human, natural and disruptive incidents. This study discussed a number of effective measures for protecting the environment while ensuring food production yields. Additional research in other areas and certain improvements of this method in future studies may be necessary to develop a more effective method of managing and controlling agricultural-environmental interactions.

  5. Is risk analysis scientific?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansson, Sven Ove; Aven, Terje

    2014-07-01

    This article discusses to what extent risk analysis is scientific in view of a set of commonly used definitions and criteria. We consider scientific knowledge to be characterized by its subject matter, its success in developing the best available knowledge in its fields of study, and the epistemic norms and values that guide scientific investigations. We proceed to assess the field of risk analysis according to these criteria. For this purpose, we use a model for risk analysis in which science is used as a base for decision making on risks, which covers the five elements evidence, knowledge base, broad risk evaluation, managerial review and judgment, and the decision; and that relates these elements to the domains experts and decisionmakers, and to the domains fact-based or value-based. We conclude that risk analysis is a scientific field of study, when understood as consisting primarily of (i) knowledge about risk-related phenomena, processes, events, etc., and (ii) concepts, theories, frameworks, approaches, principles, methods and models to understand, assess, characterize, communicate, and manage risk, in general and for specific applications (the instrumental part). © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  6. Exchange rate risk in Central European countries

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kočenda, Evžen; Poghosyan, T.

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 60, č. 1 (2010), s. 22-39 ISSN 0015-1920 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA402/08/1376; GA MŠk LC542 Institutional research plan: CEZ:MSM0021620846 Keywords : foreign exchange risk * time-varying risk premium * stochastic discount factor Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.278, year: 2010 http://journal.fsv.cuni.cz/storage/1178_str_22_39_-_ko%C4%8Denda.pdf

  7. Comparative risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niehaus, F.

    1988-01-01

    In this paper, the risks of various energy systems are discussed considering severe accidents analysis, particularly the probabilistic safety analysis, and probabilistic safety criteria, and the applications of these criteria and analysis. The comparative risk analysis has demonstrated that the largest source of risk in every society is from daily small accidents. Nevertheless, we have to be more concerned about severe accidents. The comparative risk analysis of five different energy systems (coal, oil, gas, LWR and STEC (Solar)) for the public has shown that the main sources of risks are coal and oil. The latest comparative risk study of various energy has been conducted in the USA and has revealed that the number of victims from coal is 42 as many than victims from nuclear. A study for severe accidents from hydro-dams in United States has estimated the probability of dam failures at 1 in 10,000 years and the number of victims between 11,000 and 260,000. The average occupational risk from coal is one fatal accident in 1,000 workers/year. The probabilistic safety analysis is a method that can be used to assess nuclear energy risks, and to analyze the severe accidents, and to model all possible accident sequences and consequences. The 'Fault tree' analysis is used to know the probability of failure of the different systems at each point of accident sequences and to calculate the probability of risks. After calculating the probability of failure, the criteria for judging the numerical results have to be developed, that is the quantitative and qualitative goals. To achieve these goals, several systems have been devised by various countries members of AIEA. The probabilistic safety ana-lysis method has been developed by establishing a computer program permit-ting to know different categories of safety related information. 19 tabs. (author)

  8. Information Security Risk Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Peltier, Thomas R

    2010-01-01

    Offers readers with the knowledge and the skill-set needed to achieve a highly effective risk analysis assessment. This title demonstrates how to identify threats and then determine if those threats pose a real risk. It is suitable for industry and academia professionals.

  9. Risk factors for common cancers among patients at Kamuzu Central ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: Little is known about risk factors for different cancers in Malawi. This study aimed to assess risk factors for and epidemiologic patterns of common cancers among patients treated at Kamuzu Central Hospital (KCH) in Lilongwe, and to determine the prevalence of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) infection in ...

  10. Fast network centrality analysis using GPUs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shi Zhiao

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background With the exploding volume of data generated by continuously evolving high-throughput technologies, biological network analysis problems are growing larger in scale and craving for more computational power. General Purpose computation on Graphics Processing Units (GPGPU provides a cost-effective technology for the study of large-scale biological networks. Designing algorithms that maximize data parallelism is the key in leveraging the power of GPUs. Results We proposed an efficient data parallel formulation of the All-Pairs Shortest Path problem, which is the key component for shortest path-based centrality computation. A betweenness centrality algorithm built upon this formulation was developed and benchmarked against the most recent GPU-based algorithm. Speedup between 11 to 19% was observed in various simulated scale-free networks. We further designed three algorithms based on this core component to compute closeness centrality, eccentricity centrality and stress centrality. To make all these algorithms available to the research community, we developed a software package gpu-fan (GPU-based Fast Analysis of Networks for CUDA enabled GPUs. Speedup of 10-50× compared with CPU implementations was observed for simulated scale-free networks and real world biological networks. Conclusions gpu-fan provides a significant performance improvement for centrality computation in large-scale networks. Source code is available under the GNU Public License (GPL at http://bioinfo.vanderbilt.edu/gpu-fan/.

  11. Component of the risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martinez, I.; Campon, G.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation reviews issues like analysis of risk (Codex), management risk, preliminary activities manager, relationship between government and industries, microbiological danger and communication of risk

  12. Unsharpness-risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Preyssl, C.

    1986-01-01

    Safety analysis provides the only tool for evaluation and quantification of rare or hypothetical events leading to system failure. So far probability theory has been used for the fault- and event-tree methodology. The phenomenon of uncertainties constitutes an important aspect in risk analysis. Uncertainties can be classified as originating from 'randomness' or 'fuzziness'. Probability theory addresses randomness only. The use of 'fuzzy set theory' makes it possible to include both types of uncertainty in the mathematical model of risk analysis. Thus the 'fuzzy fault tree' is expressed in 'possibilistic' terms implying a range of simplifications and improvements. 'Human failure' and 'conditionality' can be treated correctly. Only minimum-maximum relations are used to combine the possibility distributions of events. Various event-classifications facilitate the interpretation of the results. The method is demonstrated by application to a TRIGA-research reactor. Uncertainty as an implicit part of 'fuzzy risk' can be quantified explicitly using an 'uncertainty measure'. Based on this the 'degree of relative compliance' with a quantizative safety goal can be defined for a particular risk. The introduction of 'weighting functionals' guarantees the consideration of the importances attached to different parts of the risk exceeding or complying with the standard. The comparison of two reference systems is demonstrated in a case study. It is concluded that any application of the 'fuzzy risk analysis' has to be free of any hypostatization when reducing subjective to objective information. (Author)

  13. Adversarial risk analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Banks, David L; Rios Insua, David

    2015-01-01

    Flexible Models to Analyze Opponent Behavior A relatively new area of research, adversarial risk analysis (ARA) informs decision making when there are intelligent opponents and uncertain outcomes. Adversarial Risk Analysis develops methods for allocating defensive or offensive resources against intelligent adversaries. Many examples throughout illustrate the application of the ARA approach to a variety of games and strategic situations. The book shows decision makers how to build Bayesian models for the strategic calculation of their opponents, enabling decision makers to maximize their expected utility or minimize their expected loss. This new approach to risk analysis asserts that analysts should use Bayesian thinking to describe their beliefs about an opponent's goals, resources, optimism, and type of strategic calculation, such as minimax and level-k thinking. Within that framework, analysts then solve the problem from the perspective of the opponent while placing subjective probability distributions on a...

  14. Spontaneous fracture of implanted central venous catheters in cancer patients: report of two cases and retrospective analysis of the 'pinch-off sign' as a risk factor

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Punt, C. J.; Strijk, S.; van der Hoeven, J. J.; van de Sluis, R.; Verhagen, C. A.

    1995-01-01

    Spontaneous fracture of central venous catheters (CVC) has been reported. It results from repeated compression of the extravasal part of the CVC between the clavicle and the first rib. The so called pinch-off sign (POS) of the CVC as visible on a chest radiograph has been described as a warning for

  15. Infectious exposure in the first years of life and risk of central nervous system tumours in children: analysis of birth order, childcare attendance and seasonality of birth

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmidt, L S; Kamper-Jørgensen, M; Schmiegelow, K

    2010-01-01

    An infective, mostly viral basis has been found in different human cancers. To test the hypothesis of a possible infectious aetiology for central nervous system (CNS) tumours in children, we investigated the associations with proxy measures of exposure to infectious disease....

  16. Reduction of Risk in Exploration and Prospect Generation through a Multidisciplinary Basin-Analysis Program in the South-Central Mid-Continent Region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Banerjee, S.; Barker, C.; Fite, J.; George, S.; Guo, Genliang; Johnson, W.; Jordan, J., Szpakiewicz, M.; Person, M.; Reeves, T.K.; Safley, E.; Swenson, J.B.; Volk, L.; and Erickson, R.

    1999-04-02

    This report will discuss a series of regional studies that were undertaken within the South-Central Mid-Continent region of the U.S. Coverage is also provided about a series of innovative techniques that were used for this assessment.

  17. Sovereign Credit Risk, Liquidity, and European Central Bank Intervention

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pelizzon, Loriana; Subrahmanyam, Marti G.; Tomio, Davide

    2016-01-01

    We examine the dynamic relation between credit risk and liquidity in the Italian sovereign bond market during the eurozone crisis and the subsequent European Central Bank (ECB) interventions. Credit risk drives the liquidity of the market. A 10% change in the credit default swap (CDS) spread leads...... to a 13% change in the bid-ask spread, the relation being stronger when the CDS spread exceeds 500 basis points. The Long-Term Refinancing Operations of the ECB weakened the sensitivity of market makers’ liquidity provision to credit risk, highlighting the importance of funding liquidity measures...

  18. Environmental risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lima-e-Silva, Pedro Paulo de

    1996-01-01

    The conventional Risk Analysis (RA) relates usually a certain undesired event frequency with its consequences. Such technique is used nowadays in Brazil to analyze accidents and their consequences strictly under the human approach, valuing loss of human equipment, human structures and human lives, without considering the damage caused to natural resources that keep life possible on Earth. This paradigm was developed primarily because of the Homo sapiens' lack of perception upon the natural web needed to sustain his own life. In reality, the Brazilian professionals responsible today for licensing, auditing and inspecting environmental aspects of human activities face huge difficulties in making technical specifications and procedures leading to acceptable levels of impact, furthermore considering the intrinsic difficulties to define those levels. Therefore, in Brazil the RA technique is a weak tool for licensing for many reasons, and of them are its short scope (only accident considerations) and wrong a paradigm (only human direct damages). A paper from the author about the former was already proposed to the 7th International Conference on Environmetrics, past July'96, USP-SP. This one discusses the extension of the risk analysis concept to take into account environmental consequences, transforming the conventional analysis into a broader methodology named here as Environmental Risk Analysis. (author)

  19. Risk analysis and reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uppuluri, V.R.R.

    1979-01-01

    Mathematical foundations of risk analysis are addressed. The importance of having the same probability space in order to compare different experiments is pointed out. Then the following topics are discussed: consequences as random variables with infinite expectations; the phenomenon of rare events; series-parallel systems and different kinds of randomness that could be imposed on such systems; and the problem of consensus of estimates of expert opinion

  20. Mare Risk Analysis monitor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fuente Prieto, I.; Alonso, P.; Carretero Fernandino, J. A.

    2000-01-01

    The Nuclear Safety Council's requirement that Spanish power plants comply with the requirements of the Maintenance Rule associated with plant risk assessment during power operation, arising from the partial unavailability of systems due to the maintenance activities, has led to need for additional tools to facilitate compliance with said requirements. While the impact on risk produced by individual equipment unavailabilities can easily be evaluated, either qualitatively or quantitatively, the process becomes more complicated when un programmed unavailabilities simultaneously occur in various systems, making it necessary to evaluate their functional impact. It is especially complex in the case of support systems that can affect the functionality of multiple systems. In view of the above, a computer application has been developed that is capable of providing the operator with quick answers based on the specific plant model in order to allow fast risk assessment using the information compiled as part of the Probabilistic Safety Analysis. The paper describes the most important characteristics of this application and the basic design requirements of the MARE Risk Monitor. (Author)

  1. Methods for Risk Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alverbro, Karin

    2010-01-01

    Many decision-making situations today affect humans and the environment. In practice, many such decisions are made without an overall view and prioritise one or other of the two areas. Now and then these two areas of regulation come into conflict, e.g. the best alternative as regards environmental considerations is not always the best from a human safety perspective and vice versa. This report was prepared within a major project with the aim of developing a framework in which both the environmental aspects and the human safety aspects are integrated, and decisions can be made taking both fields into consideration. The safety risks have to be analysed in order to be successfully avoided and one way of doing this is to use different kinds of risk analysis methods. There is an abundance of existing methods to choose from and new methods are constantly being developed. This report describes some of the risk analysis methods currently available for analysing safety and examines the relationships between them. The focus here is mainly on human safety aspects

  2. GIS modeling for canine dirofilariosis risk assessment in central Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michele Mortarino

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available A survey was conducted in an area of central Italy in order to study the prevalence of Dirofilaria immitis and D. repens in dogs. Blood samples were collected from 283 dogs and examined using a modified Knott’s technique. In addition, in order to detect D. immitis occult infection, 203 serum samples were also analysed for D. immitis antigen detection. The results were analyzed in order to evaluate the behavioural and attitudinal risk factors. A geographical information system (GIS for the study area was constructed, utilizing the following data layers: administrative boundaries, elevation, temperature, rainfall and humidity. Microfilariae were detected in 32 of the 283 dogs surveyed, constituting a total Dirofilaria prevalence of 11.3%. In particular, 20 dogs (7.1% were positive for D. immitis and 12 dogs (4.2% for D. repens microfilariae. One case of D. immitis occult infection was also detected. Choroplethic municipal maps were drawn within the GIS in order to display the distribution of each Dirofilaria species in the study area. Statistical analysis showed a significant association between Dirofilaria infection and animal attitude (hunting/truffle dogs showed a higher prevalence compared to guard/pet dogs. A higher prevalence was also recorded in 2 to 5-years old dogs. Furthermore a GIS-based modelling of climatic data, collected from 5 meteorological stations in the study area, was performed to estimate the yearly number of D. immitis generations in the mosquito vector. The results of the model as depicted by GIS analysis was highly concordant with the territorial distribution of positive dogs and showed that D. immitis spreading is markedly influenced by season. The potential transmission period in the study area was found to be confined to summer months with a peak in July and August, as expected for a temperate region where summer season is the most favourable period for the parasite.

  3. Risk across disciplines: An interdisciplinary examination of water and drought risk in South-Central Oklahoma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lazrus, H.; Paimazumder, D.; Towler, E.; McPherson, R. A.

    2013-12-01

    Drought is a challenge faced by communities across the United States, exacerbated by growing demands on water resources and climate variability and change. The Arbuckle-Simpson Aquifer (ASA) in south-central Oklahoma, situated in the heart of the Chickasaw Nation, is the state's only sole-source groundwater basin and sustains the Blue River, the state's only free-flowing river. The recent comprehensive hydrological studies of the aquifer indicate the need for sustainable management of the amount of water extracted. However, the question of how to deal with that management in the face of increasing drought vulnerability, diverse demands, and climate variability and change remains. Water management carries a further imperative to be inclusive of tribal and non-tribal interests. To examine this question, we are conducting an investigation of drought risk from multiple disciplines. Anthropological data comes from stakeholder interviews that were designed to investigate conflict over water management by understanding how people perceive risk differently based on different opinions about the structure of the resource, varying levels of trust in authorities, and unequal access to resources. . The Cultural Theory of Risk is used to explain how people view risks as part of their worldviews and why people who hold different worldviews disagree about risks associated with water availability. Meteorological analyses of longitudinal data indicate periods of drought that are noted in stakeholder interviews. Analysis of stream gauge data investigates the influence of climate variability on local hydrologic impacts, such as changing groundwater levels and streamflows, that are relevant to planning and management decisions in the ASA. Quantitative assessment of future drought risk and associated uncertainty and their effect on type and scale of future economic and social impacts are achieved by combining elements of statistical and dynamical downscaling to improve predictions of

  4. Management of Risks to Financial Stability from the Perspective of a Central Bank

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriela Lățea

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available This article investigates the main issues pertaining to a central bank’s concerns relative to financial stability, as seen from the perspective of risks, sources and key ways of action. At macroeconomic level, central banks need to identify and monitor the risk that market operators face payment default towards local entities (companies, households, government and/or foreign creditors. Moreover, central banks entrusted with supervisory and licensing tasks are also carefully examining the various risks threatening banks, be they credit risk, liquidity risk, market risk, or risks associated with exposure concentration and distribution. On financial markets, prices, profit margins, interest rates, net exposure to certain financial instruments must be monitored to be able to identify build - ups of risks, stress and significant drawbacks to its adequate functioning. Adding to these is the Contingent Claims Analysis (CCA1, which involves oversight and assessment of risks in various sectors as well as of the needs to counter them, by drawing on the real market data to identify the probability of default in one sector or another and the impact on other sectors in an integrated manner.

  5. Cumulative effects analysis of the water quality risk of herbicides used for site preparation in the Central North Island, New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dan Neary; Brenda R. Baillie

    2016-01-01

    Herbicide use varies both spatially and temporally within managed forests. While information exists on the effects of herbicide use on water quality at the site and small catchment scale, little is known about the cumulative effects of herbicide use at the landscape scale. A cumulative effects analysis was conducted in the upper Rangitaiki catchment (118,345...

  6. Yellow fever risk assessment in the Central African Republic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staples, J Erin; Diallo, Mawlouth; Janusz, Kristen B; Manengu, Casimir; Lewis, Rosamund F; Perea, William; Yactayo, Sergio; Sall, Amadou A

    2014-10-01

    Starting in 2008, the Central African Republic (CAR) experienced an unprecedented number of reported yellow fever (YF) cases. A risk assessment of YF virus (YFV) activity was conducted to estimate potential disease risk and vaccine needs. A multistage cluster sampling design was used to sample humans, non-human primates, and mosquitoes in distinct ecologic zones. Humans and non-human primates were tested for YFV-specific antibodies; mosquitoes were tested for YFV RNA. Overall, 13.3% (125/938) of humans were found to have naturally-acquired YFV antibodies. Antibody levels were higher in zones in the southern and south central regions of CAR. All sampled non-human primates (n=56) were known YFV reservoirs; one tested positive for YFV antibodies. Several known YF vectors were identified including Aedes africanus, Ae. aegypti, Ae. luteocephalus, and Ae. simpsoni. Several more urban locations were found to have elevated Breateau and Container indices for Ae. aegypti. A country-wide assessment of YF risk found YFV to be endemic in CAR. The potential for future YF cases and outbreaks, however, varied by ecologic zone. Improved vaccination coverage through mass campaign and childhood immunization was recommended to mitigate the YF risk. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  7. Central Waste Complex (CWC) Waste Analysis Plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    ELLEFSON, M.D.

    2000-01-01

    The purpose of this waste analysis plan (WAP) is to document the waste acceptance process, sampling methodologies, analytical techniques, and overall processes that are undertaken for waste accepted for storage at the Central Waste Complex (CWC), which is located in the 200 West Area of the Hanford Facility, Richland, Washington. Because dangerous waste does not include the source special nuclear and by-product material components of mixed waste, radionuclides are not within the scope of this document. The information on radionuclides is provided only for general knowledge. This document has been revised to meet the interim status waste analysis plan requirements of Washington Administrative Code (WAC) 173 303-300(5). When the final status permit is issued, permit conditions will be incorporated and this document will be revised accordingly

  8. Probabilistic risk analysis and terrorism risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ezell, Barry Charles; Bennett, Steven P; von Winterfeldt, Detlof; Sokolowski, John; Collins, Andrew J

    2010-04-01

    Since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and the subsequent establishment of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), considerable efforts have been made to estimate the risks of terrorism and the cost effectiveness of security policies to reduce these risks. DHS, industry, and the academic risk analysis communities have all invested heavily in the development of tools and approaches that can assist decisionmakers in effectively allocating limited resources across the vast array of potential investments that could mitigate risks from terrorism and other threats to the homeland. Decisionmakers demand models, analyses, and decision support that are useful for this task and based on the state of the art. Since terrorism risk analysis is new, no single method is likely to meet this challenge. In this article we explore a number of existing and potential approaches for terrorism risk analysis, focusing particularly on recent discussions regarding the applicability of probabilistic and decision analytic approaches to bioterrorism risks and the Bioterrorism Risk Assessment methodology used by the DHS and criticized by the National Academies and others.

  9. The contribution of the Global Change Observatory Central Asia to seismic hazard and risk assessment in the Central Asian region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parolai, S.; Bindi, D.; Haberland, C. A.; Pittore, M.; Pilz, M.; Rosenau, M.; Schurr, B.; Wieland, M.; Yuan, X.

    2012-12-01

    Central Asia has one of the world's highest levels of earthquake hazard, owing to its exceptionally high deformation rates. Moreover, vulnerability to natural disasters in general is increasing, due to rising populations and a growing dependence on complex lifelines and technology. Therefore, there is an urgent need to undertake seismic hazard and risk assessment in this region, while at the same time improving upon existing methodologies, including the consideration of temporal variability in the seismic hazard, and in structural and social vulnerability. Over the last few years, the German Research Center for Geosciences (GFZ), in collaboration with local partners, has initiated a number of scientific activities within the framework of the Global Change Observatory Central Asia (GCO-CA). The work is divided into projects with specific concerns: - The installation and maintenance of the Central-Asian Real-time Earthquake MOnitoring Network (CAREMON) and the setup of a permanent wireless mesh network for structural health monitoring in Bishkek. - The TIPAGE and TIPTIMON projects focus on the geodynamics of the Tien-Shan, Pamir and Hindu Kush region, the deepest and most active intra-continental subduction zone in the world. The work covers time scales from millions of years to short-term snapshots based on geophysical measurements of seismotectonic activity and of the physical properties of the crust and upper mantle, as well as their coupling with other surface processes (e.g., landslides). - Existing risk analysis methods assume time-independent earthquake hazard and risk, although temporal changes are likely to occur due to, for example, co- and post-seismic changes in the regional stress field. We therefore aim to develop systematic time-dependent hazard and risk analysis methods in order to undertake the temporal quantification of earthquake activity (PROGRESS). - To improve seismic hazard assessment for better loss estimation, detailed site effects studies

  10. RAMI analysis of the ITER Central Safety System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kitazawa, Sin-iti, E-mail: kitazawa.siniti@jaea.go.jp [ITER Project Unit, Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA), Naka, 311-0193 Ibaraki (Japan); Okayama, Katsumi [ITER Organization, Route de Vinon sur Verdon, 13115 Saint Paul Lez Durance (France); Neyatani, Yuzuru [ITER Project Unit, Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA), Naka, 311-0193 Ibaraki (Japan); Sagot, Francois; Houtte, Didier van [ITER Organization, Route de Vinon sur Verdon, 13115 Saint Paul Lez Durance (France)

    2014-06-15

    Highlights: • We performed the functional analysis of the ITER CSS. • We performed a failure mode analysis of the ITER CSS. • We estimated the reliability and availability of the ITER CSS. • The ITER RAMI approach was applied to the ITER CSS for technical risk control in the design phase. - Abstract: ITER is the first worldwide international project aiming to design a facility to produce nuclear fusion energy. The technical requirements of its plant systems have been established in the ITER Project Baseline. In the project, the Reliability, Availability, Maintainability and Inspectability (RAMI) approach has been adopted for technical risk control to help aid the design of the components in preparation for operation and maintenance. A RAMI analysis was performed on the conceptual design of the ITER Central Safety System (CSS). A functional breakdown was prepared in a bottom-up approach, resulting in the system being divided into 2 main functions and 20 sub-functions. These functions were described using the IDEF0 method. Reliability block diagrams were prepared to estimate the reliability and availability of each function under the stipulated operating conditions. Initial and expected scenarios were analyzed to define risk-mitigation actions. The inherent availability of the ITER CSS expected after implementation of mitigation actions was calculated to be 99.80% over 2 years, which is the typical interval of the scheduled maintenance cycles. This is consistent with the project required value of 99.9 ± 0.1%. A Failure Modes, Effects and Criticality Analysis was performed with criticality charts highlighting the risk level of the different failure modes with regard to their probability of occurrence and their effects on the availability of the plasma operation. This analysis defined when risk mitigation actions were required in terms of design, testing, operation procedures and/or maintenance to reduce the risk levels and increase the availability of the

  11. Predictive susceptibility analysis of typhoon induced landslides in Central Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shou, Keh-Jian; Lin, Zora

    2017-04-01

    Climate change caused by global warming affects Taiwan significantly for the past decade. The increasing frequency of extreme rainfall events, in which concentrated and intensive rainfalls generally cause geohazards including landslides and debris flows. The extraordinary, such as 2004 Mindulle and 2009 Morakot, hit Taiwan and induced serious flooding and landslides. This study employs rainfall frequency analysis together with the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) downscaling estimation to understand the temporal rainfall trends, distributions, and intensities in the adopted Wu River watershed in Central Taiwan. To assess the spatial hazard of the landslides, landslide susceptibility analysis was also applied. Different types of rainfall factors were tested in the susceptibility models for a better accuracy. In addition, the routes of typhoons were also considered in the predictive analysis. The results of predictive analysis can be applied for risk prevention and management in the study area.

  12. Radiological risks of transports to central waste management facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lange, F.

    1997-01-01

    Transports of radioactive waste from nuclear facilities have been a matter of frequent public concern in the recent past. News reports, protests and questions concerning the radiological risk tended to concentrate on transports to and from central waste management facilities, e.g. transports of spent fuel elements to reprocessing plants abroad (France, England), transports to intermediate storage sites (Ahaus, Gorleben), transports to operative (Morsleben) and projected (Konrad) final storage sites, and transports of vitrified high-activity waste from reprocessing plants to the intermediate storage site (Gorleben). (orig.) [de

  13. Yellow fever risk assessment in the Central African Republic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos Junior, Alberto Novaes; Heukelbach, Jorg

    2015-04-01

    Yellow fever still causes high burden in several areas of sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America. There are few well-designed epidemiological studies and limited data about yellow fever in Africa. Staples et al., in a recently published paper in Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine & Hygiene, performed a nationwide study in the Central African Republic (CAR) assessing infection risk and the operational impact of preventive measures. The rapid assessment of human, non-human and mosquito data call attention to the potential risk of future yellow fever outbreaks in the CAR and elsewhere. The study reinforces the need for intensified applied and operational research to address problems and human capacity needs in the realm of neglected tropical diseases in the post-2015 agenda. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  14. Risk factors for development of complication following peripherally inserted central

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hakan Aydın

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: Peripherally inserted central venous catheters (PICCs are inserted into central veins through the upper extremity veins. In this retrospective study, we aimed to evaluate PICC procedures, related complications, their causes and factors influencing the success of the procedure during anaesthesia Methods: ‘Central Venous Catheterization Forms’ filled out for 850 patients in whom a PICC was inserted by residents during general anaesthesia between November 2009 and March 2013 in the operating room of Uludag University Medical Faculty Hospital were retrospectively analysed. Results: A total of 1174 procedures were evaluated. The most preferred vein for the first attempt was the right basilic vein (32.7%. Difficulty (more than two attempts with the PICC procedure was correlated with the patient’s age (p30 kg/m² (p<0.05, resident with less than 4 years of training (p=0.001, number of PICC attempts ≥2 (p<0.001, more than one resident involved in the catheterization procedure (p<0.001 and previous failed PICC procedures (p<0.001. Conclusion: We conclude that catheterization should be performed under the surveillance of a staff keeping in mind the risks of complications. In the case of failure following 2 attempts, the procedure should be handed over to a more experienced staff member. J Clin Exp Invest 2014; 5 (1: 29-35

  15. Analysis of central and upwind compact schemes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sengupta, T.K.; Ganeriwal, G.; De, S.

    2003-01-01

    Central and upwind compact schemes for spatial discretization have been analyzed with respect to accuracy in spectral space, numerical stability and dispersion relation preservation. A von Neumann matrix spectral analysis is developed here to analyze spatial discretization schemes for any explicit and implicit schemes to investigate the full domain simultaneously. This allows one to evaluate various boundary closures and their effects on the domain interior. The same method can be used for stability analysis performed for the semi-discrete initial boundary value problems (IBVP). This analysis tells one about the stability for every resolved length scale. Some well-known compact schemes that were found to be G-K-S and time stable are shown here to be unstable for selective length scales by this analysis. This is attributed to boundary closure and we suggest special boundary treatment to remove this shortcoming. To demonstrate the asymptotic stability of the resultant schemes, numerical solution of the wave equation is compared with analytical solution. Furthermore, some of these schemes are used to solve two-dimensional Navier-Stokes equation and a computational acoustic problem to check their ability to solve problems for long time. It is found that those schemes, that were found unstable for the wave equation, are unsuitable for solving incompressible Navier-Stokes equation. In contrast, the proposed compact schemes with improved boundary closure and an explicit higher-order upwind scheme produced correct results. The numerical solution for the acoustic problem is compared with the exact solution and the quality of the match shows that the used compact scheme has the requisite DRP property

  16. Seismic risk assessment and application in the central United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Z.

    2011-01-01

    Seismic risk is a somewhat subjective, but important, concept in earthquake engineering and other related decision-making. Another important concept that is closely related to seismic risk is seismic hazard. Although seismic hazard and seismic risk have often been used interchangeably, they are fundamentally different: seismic hazard describes the natural phenomenon or physical property of an earthquake, whereas seismic risk describes the probability of loss or damage that could be caused by a seismic hazard. The distinction between seismic hazard and seismic risk is of practical significance because measures for seismic hazard mitigation may differ from those for seismic risk reduction. Seismic risk assessment is a complicated process and starts with seismic hazard assessment. Although probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is the most widely used method for seismic hazard assessment, recent studies have found that PSHA is not scientifically valid. Use of PSHA will lead to (1) artifact estimates of seismic risk, (2) misleading use of the annual probability of exccedance (i.e., the probability of exceedance in one year) as a frequency (per year), and (3) numerical creation of extremely high ground motion. An alternative approach, which is similar to those used for flood and wind hazard assessments, has been proposed. ?? 2011 ASCE.

  17. International Conference on Risk Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Oliveira, Teresa; Rigas, Alexandros; Gulati, Sneh

    2015-01-01

    This book covers the latest results in the field of risk analysis. Presented topics include probabilistic models in cancer research, models and methods in longevity, epidemiology of cancer risk, engineering reliability and economical risk problems. The contributions of this volume originate from the 5th International Conference on Risk Analysis (ICRA 5). The conference brought together researchers and practitioners working in the field of risk analysis in order to present new theoretical and computational methods with applications in biology, environmental sciences, public health, economics and finance.

  18. Arterial stiffness, central hemodynamics, and cardiovascular risk in hypertension

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palatini, Paolo; Casiglia, Edoardo; Gąsowski, Jerzy; Głuszek, Jerzy; Jankowski, Piotr; Narkiewicz, Krzysztof; Saladini, Francesca; Stolarz-Skrzypek, Katarzyna; Tikhonoff, Valérie; Van Bortel, Luc; Wojciechowska, Wiktoria; Kawecka-Jaszcz, Kalina

    2011-01-01

    This review summarizes several scientific contributions at the recent Satellite Symposium of the European Society of Hypertension, held in Milan, Italy. Arterial stiffening and its hemodynamic consequences can be easily and reliably measured using a range of noninvasive techniques. However, like blood pressure (BP) measurements, arterial stiffness should be measured carefully under standardized patient conditions. Carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity has been proposed as the gold standard for arterial stiffness measurement and is a well recognized predictor of adverse cardiovascular outcome. Systolic BP and pulse pressure in the ascending aorta may be lower than pressures measured in the upper limb, especially in young individuals. A number of studies suggest closer correlation of end-organ damage with central BP than with peripheral BP, and central BP may provide additional prognostic information regarding cardiovascular risk. Moreover, BP-lowering drugs can have differential effects on central aortic pressures and hemodynamics compared with brachial BP. This may explain the greater beneficial effect provided by newer antihypertensive drugs beyond peripheral BP reduction. Although many methodological problems still hinder the wide clinical application of parameters of arterial stiffness, these will likely contribute to cardiovascular assessment and management in future clinical practice. Each of the abovementioned parameters reflects a different characteristic of the atherosclerotic process, involving functional and/or morphological changes in the vessel wall. Therefore, acquiring simultaneous measurements of different parameters of vascular function and structure could theoretically enhance the power to improve risk stratification. Continuous technological effort is necessary to refine our methods of investigation in order to detect early arterial abnormalities. Arterial stiffness and its consequences represent the great challenge of the twenty-first century for

  19. MATHEMATICAL RISK ANALYSIS: VIA NICHOLAS RISK MODEL AND BAYESIAN ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anass BAYAGA

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this second part of a two-phased study was to explorethe predictive power of quantitative risk analysis (QRA method andprocess within Higher Education Institution (HEI. The method and process investigated the use impact analysis via Nicholas risk model and Bayesian analysis, with a sample of hundred (100 risk analysts in a historically black South African University in the greater Eastern Cape Province.The first findings supported and confirmed previous literature (KingIII report, 2009: Nicholas and Steyn, 2008: Stoney, 2007: COSA, 2004 that there was a direct relationship between risk factor, its likelihood and impact, certiris paribus. The second finding in relation to either controlling the likelihood or the impact of occurrence of risk (Nicholas risk model was that to have a brighter risk reward, it was important to control the likelihood ofoccurrence of risks as compared with its impact so to have a direct effect on entire University. On the Bayesian analysis, thus third finding, the impact of risk should be predicted along three aspects. These aspects included the human impact (decisions made, the property impact (students and infrastructural based and the business impact. Lastly, the study revealed that although in most business cases, where as business cycles considerably vary dependingon the industry and or the institution, this study revealed that, most impacts in HEI (University was within the period of one academic.The recommendation was that application of quantitative risk analysisshould be related to current legislative framework that affects HEI.

  20. Country risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    David, A.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reports that the oil industry has been an internationally based industry that has been heavily dependent on outside financing sources. Historically, financing came from investment houses that, in most cases, participated in the projects as equity investors. However, investment companies can no longer satisfy the capital requirements of the current high level of exploration and development activities. The current trend is to involve commercial banks on a purely lending basis. Commercial banks, by their nature, are risk averse. In the case of oil and gas exploration and production they are asked to take not only technical risk and price risk but geopolitical risk as well. Methods have been developed by commercial banks to reduce technical and price risks to point which enables them to be comfortable with a loan. However, geopolitical risks are more difficult to assess. The risk associated with many countries are the nationalization of the investment, new tax restrictions, restriction of currency movements, and/or revisions to the production sharing agreements

  1. Risk assessment of chemicals: A central European perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bencko, Vladimir [Institute of Hygiene, 1st Medical Faculty, Charles University, Prague (Czech Republic); Ungvary, Gyoergy [National Institute of Occupational Health, Budapest (Hungary)

    1992-07-01

    During the last four decades in the Czech and Slovak federal Republic (CSFR) and Hungary, similar to the previous Soviet Union and all the Central and East European countries the prevention of the adverse health effects of chemicals in occupational and environmental settings, drinking water and food of population was intended to be achieved by determination and compulsory observance of hygienic limit values. From recent political developments it can be expected that due to the decay of the former Warsaw Pact and the related Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (CMEA) the next development of risk assessment will reflect that new situation. The OECD principles of toxicity testing and risk assessment of exposure to chemicals will be sooner or later accepted in principle in the framework of a general economic integration of Central and Eastern European countries with EEC. During the 80s there was a growing feeling of the necessity to harmonize the activities of OECD and CMEA countries in the field of toxicological methodology and approaches to risk assessment of chemicals because of the growing production and mutual trade including transport of industrial and agricultural chemicals. As a contributory factor supporting this effort there was growing cross boundary air and river pollution in Europe. The former Council for Mutual Economic Assistance was an intergovernmental organization of 10 countries with a number of other countries and agencies cooperating with it in its work. CMEA as, and OECD still is concerned primarily with economic development but both had stated commitments to protecting human health and the environment. To help to mutual understanding and to promote harmonization of above mentioned obligations and commitments of the both organizations United Nation Environment Programme's International Registry of Potentially Toxic Chemicals and The International Programme on Chemical Safety (UNEP/IRPTC/IPCS) convened an International Consultation on

  2. Risk assessment of chemicals: A central European perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bencko, Vladimir; Gyoergy Ungvary

    1992-01-01

    During the last four decades in the Czech and Slovak federal Republic (CSFR) and Hungary, similar to the previous Soviet Union and all the Central and East European countries the prevention of the adverse health effects of chemicals in occupational and environmental settings, drinking water and food of population was intended to be achieved by determination and compulsory observance of hygienic limit values. From recent political developments it can be expected that due to the decay of the former Warsaw Pact and the related Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (CMEA) the next development of risk assessment will reflect that new situation. The OECD principles of toxicity testing and risk assessment of exposure to chemicals will be sooner or later accepted in principle in the framework of a general economic integration of Central and Eastern European countries with EEC. During the 80s there was a growing feeling of the necessity to harmonize the activities of OECD and CMEA countries in the field of toxicological methodology and approaches to risk assessment of chemicals because of the growing production and mutual trade including transport of industrial and agricultural chemicals. As a contributory factor supporting this effort there was growing cross boundary air and river pollution in Europe. The former Council for Mutual Economic Assistance was an intergovernmental organization of 10 countries with a number of other countries and agencies cooperating with it in its work. CMEA as, and OECD still is concerned primarily with economic development but both had stated commitments to protecting human health and the environment. To help to mutual understanding and to promote harmonization of above mentioned obligations and commitments of the both organizations United Nation Environment Programme's International Registry of Potentially Toxic Chemicals and The International Programme on Chemical Safety (UNEP/IRPTC/IPCS) convened an International Consultation on

  3. Risk analysis of Odelouca cofferdam

    OpenAIRE

    Pimenta, L.; Caldeira, L.; Maranha das Neves, E.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we present the risk analysis of Odelouca Cofferdam, using an event tree analysis. The initializing events, failure modes and analysed limit states are discussed based on an influence diagram. The constructed event trees and their interpretation are presented. The obtained risk values are represented in an FN plot superimposed to the acceptability and tolerability risk limits proposed for Portuguese dams. Initially, particular emphasis is placed on the main characteristic...

  4. Terminological Ontologies for Risk and Vulnerability Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Bodil Nistrup; Erdman Thomsen, Hanne

    2014-01-01

    Risk and vulnerability analyses are an important preliminary stage in civil contingency planning. The Danish Emergency Management Agency has developed a generic model and a set of tools that may be used in the preparedness planning, i.e. for identifying and describing society’s critical functions......, for formulating threat scenarios and for assessing consequences. Terminological ontologies, which are systems of domain specific concepts comprising concept relations and characteristics, are useful, both when describing the central concepts of risk and vulnerability analysis (meta concepts), and for further...

  5. Campylobacter Risk Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nauta, Maarten

    In several countries quantitative microbiological risk assessments (QMRAs) have been performed for Campylobacter in chicken meat. The models constructed for this purpose provide a good example of the development of QMRA in general and illustrate the diversity of available methods. Despite...... the differences between the models, the most prominent conclusions of the QMRAs are similar. These conclusions for example relate to the large risk of highly contaminated meat products and the insignificance of contamination from Campylobacter positive flocks to negative flocks during slaughter and processing...

  6. Risk analysis: opening the process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, Ph.; Mays, C.

    1998-01-01

    This conference on risk analysis took place in Paris, 11-14 october 1999. Over 200 paper where presented in the seven following sessions: perception; environment and health; persuasive risks; objects and products; personal and collective involvement; assessment and valuation; management. A rational approach to risk analysis has been developed in the three last decades. Techniques for risk assessment have been thoroughly enhanced, risk management approaches have been developed, decision making processes have been clarified, the social dimensions of risk perception and management have been investigated. Nevertheless this construction is being challenged by recent events which reveal how deficits in stakeholder involvement, openness and democratic procedures can undermine risk management actions. Indeed, the global process most components of risk analysis may be radically called into question. Food safety has lately been a prominent issue, but now debates appear, or old debates are revisited in the domains of public health, consumer products safety, waste management, environmental risks, nuclear installations, automobile safety and pollution. To meet the growing pressures for efficiency, openness, accountability, and multi-partner communication in risk analysis, institutional changes are underway in many European countries. However, the need for stakeholders to develop better insight into the process may lead to an evolution of all the components of risks analysis, even in its most (technical' steps. For stakeholders of different professional background, political projects, and responsibilities, risk identification procedures must be rendered understandable, quantitative risk assessment must be intelligible and accommodated in action proposals, ranging from countermeasures to educational programs to insurance mechanisms. Management formats must be open to local and political input and other types of operational feedback. (authors)

  7. Annual risks of tuberculous infection in East Nusa Tenggara and Central Java Provinces, Indonesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bachtiar, A; Miko, T Y; Machmud, R; Besral, B; Yudarini, P; Mehta, F; Chadha, V K; Basri, C; Loprang, F; Jitendra, R

    2009-01-01

    East Nusa Tenggara (NTT) and Central Java Provinces, Indonesia. To estimate the average annual risk of tuberculous infection (ARTI) among school children aged 6-9 years in each province. Children attending Classes 1-4 in 65 schools in NTT and 79 in Central Java, selected by two-stage sampling, were intradermally administered 2 tuberculin units of purified protein derivative RT23 with Tween 80 on the mid-volar aspect of the left forearm. The maximum transverse diameter of induration was measured 72 h later. The analysis was carried out among 5479 satisfactorily test-read children in NTT and 6943 in Central Java. One hundred and fifty-five new sputum smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) cases (78 in NTT and 77 in Central Java) were also tuberculin tested. Based on the frequency distribution of reaction sizes among the children and PTB cases, the prevalence of infection was estimated by the mirror-image method using the modes of tuberculous reactions at 15 and 17 mm. Using the 15 mm mode, ARTI was estimated at 1% in NTT and 0.9% in Central Java. Using the 17 mm mode, ARTI was estimated at 0.5% in NTT and 0.4% in Central Java. Transmission of tuberculous infection may be further reduced by intensification of tuberculosis control efforts.

  8. Low socioeconomic status may increase the risk of central obesity in incoming university students in Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chao, Chi-Yuan; Shih, Chi-Chen; Wang, Chi-Jen; Wu, Jin-Shang; Lu, Feng-Hwa; Chang, Chih-Jen; Yang, Yi-Ching

    2014-01-01

    Obesity is related to social disparity. The objective of the study was to evaluate different indicators of parental SES with the association of central obesity in young adult Taiwanese students. This study was cross-sectionally designed and a total of 4552 subjects were recruited. Each subject completed a self-administrated questionnaire and received anthropometric and laboratory measurements. The indicators of SES in study subjects included parental education, occupation, household incomes, childhood and current index of social position (ISP), measured according to the modified Hollingshead's ISP. Central obesity was defined as waist circumference ≥90 cm in men and ≥80 cm in women. The prevalence of central obesity was 10.7% in this study. When compared to subjects with normal waist circumferences, subjects with central obesity were older, had a higher BMI, both systolic and diastolic blood pressure, a higher proportion of male gender, family history of diabetes and hypertension, alcohol consumption habit, and a higher proportion of low current household income, current parental blue collar occupational level, and lower current and childhood parental ISP level. Multivariate analysis showed the current parental household income and ISP were significantly higher indicators of risk of central obesity after adjustment for possible confounding factors. The odds ratios were 1.26 and 1.30, respectively. Our results showed that low household income and current ISP were independently associated with the risk of central obesity. Therefore, young adults with low SES should be an important target group for prevention and management of central obesity in school health promotion programs. © 2014 Asian Oceanian Association for the Study of Obesity . Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Advances in probabilistic risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hardung von Hardung, H.

    1982-01-01

    Probabilistic risk analysis can now look back upon almost a quarter century of intensive development. The early studies, whose methods and results are still referred to occasionally, however, only permitted rough estimates to be made of the probabilities of recognizable accident scenarios, failing to provide a method which could have served as a reference base in calculating the overall risk associated with nuclear power plants. The first truly solid attempt was the Rasmussen Study and, partly based on it, the German Risk Study. In those studies, probabilistic risk analysis has been given a much more precise basis. However, new methodologies have been developed in the meantime, which allow much more informative risk studies to be carried out. They have been found to be valuable tools for management decisions with respect to backfitting, reinforcement and risk limitation. Today they are mainly applied by specialized private consultants and have already found widespread application especially in the USA. (orig.) [de

  10. Risk Governance of Multiple Natural Hazards: Centralized versus Decentralized Approach in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komendantova, Nadejda; Scolobig, Anna; Vinchon, Charlotte

    2014-05-01

    The multi-risk approach is a relatively new field and its definition includes the need to consider multiple hazards and vulnerabilities in their interdependency (Selva, 2013) and the current multi-hazards disasters, such as the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, tsunami and nuclear catastrophe, showed the need for a multi-risk approach in hazard mitigation and management. Our knowledge about multi-risk assessment, including studies from different scientific disciplines and developed assessment tools, is constantly growing (White et al., 2001). However, the link between scientific knowledge, its implementation and the results in terms of improved governance and decision-making have gained significantly less attention (IRGC, 2005; Kappes et al., 2012), even though the interest to risk governance, in general, has increased significantly during the last years (Verweiy and Thompson, 2006). Therefore, the key research question is how risk assessment is implemented and what is the potential for the implementation of a multi-risk approach in different governance systems across Europe. More precisely, how do the characteristics of risk governance, such as the degree of centralization versus decentralization, influence the implementation of a multi-risk approach. The methodology of this research includes comparative case study analysis of top-down and bottom-up interactions in governance in the city of Naples, (Italy), where the institutional landscape is marked by significant autonomy of Italian regions in decision-making processes for assessing the majority of natural risks, excluding volcanic, and in Guadeloupe, French West Indies, an overseas department of France, where the decision-making process is marked by greater centralization in decision making associated with a well established state governance within regions, delegated to the prefect and decentralised services of central ministries. The research design included documentary analysis and extensive empirical work involving

  11. Introduction of the risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Campon, G.; Martinez, I.

    2013-01-01

    An introduction of risks analysis was given in the exposition which main issues were: food innocuousness, world, regional and national food context,change of paradigms, health definition, risk, codex, standardization, food chain role, trade agreement, codex alimentarius, food transmission diseases cost impact

  12. Hydroproject risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murdock, R.V.; Gulliver, J.S.

    1991-01-01

    Traditionally, economic feasibility studies performed for potential hydropower plant sites have included either no uncertainty or at best an ad hoc value associated with estimated benefits. However, formal methods for analyzing uncertainty do exist and have been outlined in the past. An application of these methods is demonstrated through conversion of a hydropower survey program, HYFEAS, to run on LOTUS 1-2-3, using the add-in software package RISK. In this paper the program principals are outlined and a case study of it's application to a hydropower site is presented

  13. A health risk assessment for fluoride in Central Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fordyce, F M; Vrana, K; Zhovinsky, E; Povoroznuk, V; Toth, G; Hope, B C; Iljinsky, U; Baker, J

    2007-04-01

    Like many elements, fluorine (which generally occurs in nature as fluoride) is beneficial to human health in trace amounts, but can be toxic in excess. The links between low intakes of fluoride and dental protection are well known; however, fluoride is a powerful calcium-seeking element and can interfere with the calcified structure of bones and teeth in the human body at higher concentrations causing dental or skeletal fluorosis. One of the main exposure routes is via drinking water and the World Health Organisation currently sets water quality guidelines for the element. In Central Europe, groundwater resources that exceed the guideline value of 1.5 mg l-1 are widespread and effects on health of high fluoride in water have been reported. The aim of the current project was to develop a geographic information system (GIS) to aid the identification of areas where high-fluoride waters and fluorosis may be a problem; hence, where water treatment technologies should be targeted. The development of the GIS was based upon the collation and digitisation of existing information relevant to fluoride risk in Ukraine, Moldova, Hungary and Slovakia assembled for the first time in a readily accessible form. In addition, geochemistry and health studies to examine in more detail the relationships between high-fluoride drinking waters and health effects in the population were carried out in Moldova and Ukraine demonstrating dental fluorosis prevalence rates of 60-90% in adolescents consuming water containing 2-7 mg l-1 fluoride.

  14. STOCHASTIC METHODS IN RISK ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimíra OSADSKÁ

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we review basic stochastic methods which can be used to extend state-of-the-art deterministic analytical methods for risk analysis. We can conclude that the standard deterministic analytical methods highly depend on the practical experience and knowledge of the evaluator and therefore, the stochastic methods should be introduced. The new risk analysis methods should consider the uncertainties in input values. We present how large is the impact on the results of the analysis solving practical example of FMECA with uncertainties modelled using Monte Carlo sampling.

  15. The development of a risk score for unplanned removal of peripherally inserted central catheter in newborns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Priscila Costa

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: to develop a risk score for unplanned removal of peripherally inserted central catheter in newborns.METHOD: prospective cohort study conducted in a neonatal intensive care unit with newborn babies who underwent 524 catheter insertions. The clinical characteristics of the newborn, catheter insertion and intravenous therapy were tested as risk factors for the unplanned removal of catheters using bivariate analysis. The risk score was developed using logistic regression. Accuracy was internally validated based on the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve.RESULTS: the risk score was made up of the following risk factors: transient metabolic disorders; previous insertion of catheter; use of a polyurethane double-lumen catheter; infusion of multiple intravenous solutions through a single-lumen catheter; and tip in a noncentral position. Newborns were classified into three categories of risk of unplanned removal: low (0 to 3 points, moderate (4 to 8 points, and high (≥ 9 points. Accuracy was 0.76.CONCLUSION: the adoption of evidence-based preventative strategies based on the classification and risk factors faced by the newborn is recommended to minimize the occurrence of unplanned removals.

  16. Putting problem formulation at the forefront of GMO risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tepfer, Mark; Racovita, Monica; Craig, Wendy

    2013-01-01

    When applying risk assessment and the broader process of risk analysis to decisions regarding the dissemination of genetically modified organisms (GMOs), the process has a tendency to become remarkably complex. Further, as greater numbers of countries consider authorising the large-scale dissemination of GMOs, and as GMOs with more complex traits reach late stages of development, there has been increasing concern about the burden posed by the complexity of risk analysis. We present here an improved approach for GMO risk analysis that gives a central role to problem formulation. Further, the risk analysis strategy has been clarified and simplified in order to make rigorously scientific risk assessment and risk analysis more broadly accessible to diverse stakeholder groups.

  17. Centralization and decentralization in energy systems and associated risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rehm, W.; Schinner, F.; Kromp, W.

    1998-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: the concept of centralization/decentralization is - considering its widespread use - surprisingly ill-defined. Within the SERF-program (Socio Economic Research on Fusion) an attempt is made to clarify the complex issue of centralization/decentralization and to analyze its expected interaction with electricity production system in the case of nuclear fusion. Fusion research at the time is a multinational, highly centralized undertaking. As a result of this, and due to the expected large energy production units, it is generally expected that fusion will be embedded in a highly centralized, international energy supply system. The degree of centralization of an energy supply system, however, is believed to have for reaching consequences on the stability of the system, and beyond that, on decision making processes in energy policy, as well as democratic structures on the national or even international level. Internationalization might require control instruments that do not exist so far. Amongst other reservations, it is the possibly unwanted consequences of such a highly centralized, international energy supply system that limit acceptance of the fusion technology in the public. Therefore, centralization and decentralization trends of energy supply systems over the years are being looked at, to study their influence on the political and social systems (and vice-versa). In a first step, an attempt is made to classify centralization. Careful analyses and evaluation of available literature revealed a broad spectrum of different forms and degrees of centralization. Various parameters describing energy production and distribution are used. A differentiation of centralization on a technical and on an organizational level seems necessary, although they are not fully independent of each other. Beyond this, the choice of parameters must depend on the questions to be addressed. A new approach defining different levels and degrees of

  18. Centralization and decentralization in energy systems and associated risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rehm, W.; Schinner, F.; Kromp, W. [Vienna Univ., Institute of Risk Research, IRR (Austria)

    1998-07-01

    Full text of publication follows: the concept of centralization/decentralization is - considering its widespread use - surprisingly ill-defined. Within the SERF-program (Socio Economic Research on Fusion) an attempt is made to clarify the complex issue of centralization/decentralization and to analyze its expected interaction with electricity production system in the case of nuclear fusion. Fusion research at the time is a multinational, highly centralized undertaking. As a result of this, and due to the expected large energy production units, it is generally expected that fusion will be embedded in a highly centralized, international energy supply system. The degree of centralization of an energy supply system, however, is believed to have for reaching consequences on the stability of the system, and beyond that, on decision making processes in energy policy, as well as democratic structures on the national or even international level. Internationalization might require control instruments that do not exist so far. Amongst other reservations, it is the possibly unwanted consequences of such a highly centralized, international energy supply system that limit acceptance of the fusion technology in the public. Therefore, centralization and decentralization trends of energy supply systems over the years are being looked at, to study their influence on the political and social systems (and vice-versa). In a first step, an attempt is made to classify centralization. Careful analyses and evaluation of available literature revealed a broad spectrum of different forms and degrees of centralization. Various parameters describing energy production and distribution are used. A differentiation of centralization on a technical and on an organizational level seems necessary, although they are not fully independent of each other. Beyond this, the choice of parameters must depend on the questions to be addressed. A new approach defining different levels and degrees of

  19. Social network analysis using k-Path centrality method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taniarza, Natya; Adiwijaya; Maharani, Warih

    2018-03-01

    k-Path centrality is deemed as one of the effective methods to be applied in centrality measurement in which the influential node is estimated as the node that is being passed by information path frequently. Regarding this, k-Path centrality has been employed in the analysis of this paper specifically by adapting random-algorithm approach in order to: (1) determine the influential user’s ranking in a social media Twitter; and (2) ascertain the influence of parameter α in the numeration of k-Path centrality. According to the analysis, the findings showed that the method of k-Path centrality with random-algorithm approach can be used to determine user’s ranking which influences in the dissemination of information in Twitter. Furthermore, the findings also showed that parameter α influenced the duration and the ranking results: the less the α value, the longer the duration, yet the ranking results were more stable.

  20. ProRisk : risk analysis instrument : developed for William properties

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Doorn, W.H.W.; Egeberg, Ingrid; Hendrickx, Kristoff; Kahramaner, Y.; Masseur, B.; Waijers, Koen; Weglicka, K.A.

    2005-01-01

    This report presents a Risk Analysis Instrument developed for William Properties. Based on the analysis, it appears that the practice of Risk Analysis exists within the organization, yet rather implicit. The Risk Analysis Instrument comes with a package of four components: an activity diagram, a

  1. Common approach of risks analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noviello, L.; Naviglio, A.

    1996-01-01

    Although, following the resolutions of the High German Court, the protection level of the human beings is an objective which can change in time, it is obvious that it is an important point when there is a risk for the population. This is true more particularly for the industrial plants whose possible accidents could affect the population. The accidents risk analysis indicates that there is no conceptual difference between the risks of a nuclear power plant and those of the other industrial plants as chemical plants, the gas distribution system and the hydraulic dams. A legislation analysis induced by the Seveso Directive for the industrial risks give some important indications which should always be followed. This work analyses more particularly the legislative situation in different European countries and identifies some of the most important characteristics. Indeed, for most of the countries, the situation is different and it is a later difficulties source for nuclear power plants. In order to strengthen this reasoning, this paper presents some preliminary results of an analysis of a nuclear power plant following the approach of other industrial plants. In conclusion, it will be necessary to analyse again the risks assessment approach for nuclear power plants because the real protection level of human beings in a country is determined by the less regulated of the dangerous industrial plants existing at the surroundings. (O.M.)

  2. Sensitivity Analysis of Centralized Dynamic Cell Selection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lopez, Victor Fernandez; Alvarez, Beatriz Soret; Pedersen, Klaus I.

    2016-01-01

    and a suboptimal optimization algorithm that nearly achieves the performance of the optimal Hungarian assignment. Moreover, an exhaustive sensitivity analysis with different network and traffic configurations is carried out in order to understand what conditions are more appropriate for the use of the proposed...

  3. Deflation Risk in the Euro Area and Central Bank Credibility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    G. Galati (Gabriele); Z. Gorgi (Zion); R. Moessner (Richhild); C. Zhou (Chen)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractThis paper investigates how the perceived risk that the euro area will experience deflation has evolved over time, and what this risk implies for the credibility of the ECB. We use a novel data set on market participants’ perceptions of short- to long-term deflation risk implied by

  4. Risk Characterization uncertainties associated description, sensitivity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carrillo, M.; Tovar, M.; Alvarez, J.; Arraez, M.; Hordziejewicz, I.; Loreto, I.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation is about risks to the estimated levels of exposure, uncertainty and variability in the analysis, sensitivity analysis, risks from exposure to multiple substances, formulation of guidelines for carcinogenic and genotoxic compounds and risk subpopulations

  5. Risk analysis as a decision tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yadigaroglu, G.; Chakraborty, S.

    1985-01-01

    From 1983 - 1985 a lecture series entitled ''Risk-benefit analysis'' was held at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH), Zurich, in cooperation with the Central Department for the Safety of Nuclear Installations of the Swiss Federal Agency of Energy Economy. In that setting the value of risk-oriented evaluation models as a decision tool in safety questions was discussed on a broad basis. Experts of international reputation from the Federal Republic of Germany, France, Canada, the United States and Switzerland have contributed to report in this joint volume on the uses of such models. Following an introductory synopsis on risk analysis and risk assessment the book deals with practical examples in the fields of medicine, nuclear power, chemistry, transport and civil engineering. Particular attention is paid to the dialogue between analysts and decision makers taking into account the economic-technical aspects and social values. The recent chemical disaster in the Indian city of Bhopal again signals the necessity of such analyses. All the lectures were recorded individually. (orig./HP) [de

  6. Environmental modeling and health risk analysis (ACTS/RISK)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Aral, M. M

    2010-01-01

    ... presents a review of the topics of exposure and health risk analysis. The Analytical Contaminant Transport Analysis System (ACTS) and Health RISK Analysis (RISK) software tools are an integral part of the book and provide computational platforms for all the models discussed herein. The most recent versions of these two softwa...

  7. [Thrombosis and obstruction associated with central venous lines. Incidence and risk factors].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vivanco Allende, A; Rey Galán, C; Rodríguez de la Rúa, M V; Alvarez García, F; Medina Villanueva, A; Concha Torre, A; Mayordomo Colunga, J; Martínez Camblor, P

    2013-09-01

    To analyse the incidence of thrombosis and obstruction associated with central venous lines (CVL) inserted in critically ill children, and to determine their risk factors. Prospective observational study in a Pediatric Intensive Care Unit in a University Hospital. An analysis was made of 825 CVL placed in 546 patients. Age, gender, weight, type of catheter (lines, size, and brand), final location of the catheter, mechanical ventilation, type of sedation and analgesia used, initial failure by the doctor to perform CVL catheterization, number of attempts, CVL indication, admission diagnosis, emergency or scheduled procedure, and delayed mechanical complications (DMC). Risk factors for these complications were determined by a multiple regression analysis. A total of 52 cases of DMC, 42 cases of obstruction, and 10 of thrombosis were registered. Obstruction and thrombosis rates were 4.96 and 1.18 per 100 CVL, respectively. The only risk factor independently linked to obstruction was the duration of the CVL (OR 1.05; 95% CI; 1.00-1.10). The number of lines with thrombosis (OR 4.88; 95% CI; 1.26-18.0), as well as parenteral nutrition (OR 4.17; 95% CI; 1.06-16.31) was statistically significant according to bivariate analysis. However, no risk factors for thrombosis were found in the multivariate analysis. Obstruction and thrombosis of CVL inserted in a Pediatric Intensive Care Unit are relatively common complications. CVL duration is an independent risk factor for any line obstruction. Copyright © 2012 Asociación Española de Pediatría. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  8. Subsidence Induced Faulting Hazard risk maps in Mexico City and Morelia, central Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cabral-Cano, E.; Solano-Rojas, D.; Hernández-Espriu, J.; Cigna, F.; Wdowinski, S.; Osmanoglu, B.; Falorni, G.; Bohane, A.; Colombo, D.

    2012-12-01

    Subsidence and surface faulting have affected urban areas in Central Mexico for decades and the process has intensified as a consequence of urban sprawl and economic growth. This process causes substantial damages to the urban infrastructure and housing structures and in several cities it is becoming a major factor to be considered when planning urban development, land use zoning and hazard mitigation strategies in the next decades. Subsidence is usually associated with aggressive groundwater extraction rates and a general decrease of aquifer static level that promotes soil consolidation, deformation and ultimately, surface faulting. However, local stratigraphic and structural conditions also play an important role in the development and extension of faults. Despite its potential for damaging housing, and other urban infrastructure, the economic impact of this phenomena is poorly known, in part because detailed, city-wide subsidence induced faulting risk maps have not been published before. Nevertheless, modern remote sensing techniques are most suitable for this task. We present the results of a risk analysis for subsidence induced surface faulting in two cities in central Mexico: Morelia and Mexico City. Our analysis in Mexico City and Morelia is based on a risk matrix using the horizontal subsidence gradient from a Persistent Scatterer InSAR (Morelia) and SqueeSAR (Mexico City) analysis and 2010 census population distribution data from Mexico's National Institute of Statistics and Geography. Defining subsidence induced surface faulting vulnerability within these urbanized areas is best determined using both magnitude and horizontal subsidence gradient. Our Morelia analysis (597,000 inhabitants with localized subsidence rates up to 80 mm/yr) shows that 7% of the urbanized area is under a high to very high risk level, and 14% of its population (11.7% and 2.3% respectively) lives within these areas. In the case of the Mexico City (15'490,000 inhabitants for the

  9. Islamic Influence on HIV Risk and Protection Among Central Asian Male Migrant Workers in Kazakhstan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaw, Stacey A; McCrimmon, Tara; Mergenova, Gaukhar; Sultangaliyeva, Alma; El-Bassel, Nabila

    2017-08-01

    HIV incidence is increasing in Central Asia, where migrant workers experience risks for acquiring sexually transmitted HIV. As a social and structural factor that may influence perceptions and behavior, we examine how Islam shapes HIV risk and protection. Phenomenological qualitative interviews examine religion and contexts of HIV risk among 48 male Central Asian migrant workers residing in Almaty, Kazakhstan. Men described nonvaginal sex, alcohol use, premarital sex, and extramarital sex as forbidden or frowned upon. Religious networks were unlikely to discuss HIV risks, and some men viewed religious affiliation or practices as protective. Marital practices including neke (religious marriage), polygyny, and bride kidnapping may be linked to risk. Findings suggest adhering to Islamic ideals may be protective for some men, but for others, assumptions of protection may enhance risk. HIV prevention strategies among Central Asian migrants may be strengthened by attention to religious and cultural understandings of risk and protection.

  10. Risk Factors for Subsequent Central Nervous System Tumors in Pediatric Allogeneic Hematopoietic Cell Transplant

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gabriel, Melissa; Shaw, Bronwen E; Brazauskas, Ruta

    2017-01-01

    Survivors of hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) are at risk of subsequent solid tumors, including central nervous system (CNS) tumors. The risk of CNS tumors after HCT in pediatric HCT recipients is not known. We evaluated the incidence and risk factors for CNS tumors in pediatric recipients...

  11. Credit Risk Evaluation : Modeling - Analysis - Management

    OpenAIRE

    Wehrspohn, Uwe

    2002-01-01

    An analysis and further development of the building blocks of modern credit risk management: -Definitions of default -Estimation of default probabilities -Exposures -Recovery Rates -Pricing -Concepts of portfolio dependence -Time horizons for risk calculations -Quantification of portfolio risk -Estimation of risk measures -Portfolio analysis and portfolio improvement -Evaluation and comparison of credit risk models -Analytic portfolio loss distributions The thesis contributes to the evaluatio...

  12. Socio-Structural Barriers, Protective Factors, and HIV Risk Among Central-Asian Female Migrants in Moscow

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher Zabrocki

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Objective: This study aimed to build formative knowledge on socio-structural barriers, protective factors, and HIV sexual risk amongst Central-Asian female migrants in Moscow. Methods: Data collection included ethnographic interviews in Moscow with a purposive sample of 30 unmarried female migrants, 15 from Kyrgyzstan and 15 from Tajikistan. Results: Study participants reported difficulties with acquiring documents for legal status, financial insecurity, discrimination, sexual harassment, and lack of support. Based on analysis of the cases, one pathway linked lack of legal documentation and instrumental support with elevated sexual risk. Another pathways linked traditional cultural attitudes with both no and moderate sexual risk. Conclusion: Future HIV prevention efforts with Central Asian female migrants in Moscow should be multilevel and include: increasing HIV and prevention knowledge and skills, promoting condom use with regular partners, identifying and supporting cultural attitudes that protect against HIV sexual risk behaviors, facilitating legal status, building community support, and increasing economic options.

  13. Mapping risk of cadmium and lead contamination to human health in soils of Central Iran

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amini, M.; Afyuni, M.; Khademi, H.; Abbaspour, K.C.; Schulin, R.

    2005-01-01

    In order to map Cd and Pb contamination in the soils of the region of Isfahan, Central Iran, we performed indicator kriging on a set of 255 topsoil samples (0-20 cm) gathered irregularly from an area of 6800 km 2 . The measured Cd concentrations exceeded the Swiss guide value in more than 80% of the samples whereas Pb concentrations exceeded the respective guide value only in 2% of the samples. Based on the simulated conditional distribution functions, the probability of exceeding the concentration of Cd and Pb from the specific threshold was computed. The results indicated that in most parts of the region the probability of contamination by Cd is very large (>0.95) whereas it is small (<0.5) for Pb. Based on a misclassification analysis, we chose the probability of 0.45 as optimum probability threshold to delineate the polluted from unpolluted areas for Cd. In addition, we performed a loss analysis to separate risks to human health from potential losses due to remediation costs. Based on this analysis a probability threshold of 0.8 was found to be the optimum threshold for the classification of polluted and unpolluted areas in the case of Cd. Health risks were found to be larger in the western parts of the region. Misclassification analysis was sufficient for risk mapping for Pb as its concentration did not reach risk levels for human health. A probability of 0.7 for Pb was found to be the optimum threshold for the delineation of polluted and unpolluted lands

  14. Landslide hazards and systems analysis: A Central European perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klose, Martin; Damm, Bodo; Kreuzer, Thomas

    2016-04-01

    Part of the problem with assessing landslide hazards is to understand the variable settings in which they occur. There is growing consensus that hazard assessments require integrated approaches that take account of the coupled human-environment system. Here we provide a synthesis of societal exposure and vulnerability to landslide hazards, review innovative approaches to hazard identification, and lay a focus on hazard assessment, while presenting the results of historical case studies and a landslide time series for Germany. The findings add to a growing body of literature that recognizes societal exposure and vulnerability as a complex system of hazard interactions that evolves over time as a function of social change and development. We therefore propose to expand hazard assessments by the framework and concepts of systems analysis (e.g., Liu et al., 2007) Results so far have been promising in ways that illustrate the importance of feedbacks, thresholds, surprises, and time lags in the evolution of landslide hazard and risk. In densely populated areas of Central Europe, landslides often occur in urbanized landscapes or on engineered slopes that had been transformed or created intentionally by human activity, sometimes even centuries ago. The example of Germany enables to correlate the causes and effects of recent landslides with the historical transition of urbanization to urban sprawl, ongoing demographic change, and some chronic problems of industrialized countries today, including ageing infrastructures or rising government debts. In large parts of rural Germany, the combination of ageing infrastructures, population loss, and increasing budget deficits starts to erode historical resilience gains, which brings especially small communities to a tipping point in their efforts to risk reduction. While struggling with budget deficits and demographic change, these communities are required to maintain ageing infrastructures that are particularly vulnerable to

  15. Risk Analysis in Road Tunnels – Most Important Risk Indicators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berchtold, Florian; Knaust, Christian; Thöns, Sebastian

    2016-01-01

    Methodologies on fire risk analysis in road tunnels consider numerous factors affecting risks (risk indicators) and express the results by risk measures. But only few comprehensive studies on effects of risk indicators on risk measures are available. For this reason, this study quantifies...... the effects and highlights the most important risk indicators with the aim to support further developments in risk analysis. Therefore, a system model of a road tunnel was developed to determine the risk measures. The system model can be divided into three parts: the fire part connected to the fire model Fire...... Dynamics Simulator (FDS); the evacuation part connected to the evacuation model FDS+Evac; and the frequency part connected to a model to calculate the frequency of fires. This study shows that the parts of the system model (and their most important risk indicators) affect the risk measures in the following...

  16. Prevalence and risk factors associated with Sarcocystis neurona infections in opossums (Didelphis virginiana) from central California.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rejmanek, Daniel; Vanwormer, Elizabeth; Miller, Melissa A; Mazet, Jonna A K; Nichelason, Amy E; Melli, Ann C; Packham, Andrea E; Jessup, David A; Conrad, Patricia A

    2009-12-03

    Sarcocystis neurona, a protozoal parasite shed by opossums (Didelphis virginiana), has been shown to cause significant morbidity and mortality in horses, sea otters, and other marine mammals. Over the course of 3 years (fall 2005-summer 2008), opossums from central California were tested for infection with S. neurona. Of 288 opossums sampled, 17 (5.9%) were infected with S. neurona based on the molecular characterization of sporocysts from intestinal scrapings or feces. Risk factors evaluated for association with S. neurona infection in opossums included: age, sex, location, season, presence of pouch young in females, concomitant infection, and sampling method (live-trapped or traffic-killed). Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified that opossums in the Central Valley were 9 times more likely to be infected than those near the coast (p=0.009). Similarly, opossum infection was 5 times more likely to be detected during the reproductive season (March-July; p=0.013). This first investigation of S. neurona infection prevalence and associated risk factors in opossums in the western United States can be used to develop management strategies aimed at reducing the incidence of S. neurona infections in susceptible hosts, including horses and threatened California sea otters (Enhydra lutris neries).

  17. [Risk factors for suicide attempt among college students at Central South University].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Hui-lan; Xiao, Shui-yuan; Feng, Shan-shan; Chen, Xi-xi

    2004-04-01

    To understand the prevalence and risk factors for suicidal ideation among college students and to provide a scientific basis for promoting psychological health and suicide prevention. 623 college students at Central South University were selected using stratified cluster sampling and administered a suicide ideation questionnaire, a Symptom Check List (SCL-90), an Adolescent Self-Rating Life Events Check List (ASLEC), a Social Support Rating Scale (SSRS) and a questionnaire about background information. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was employed to identify risk factors for suicide ideation. One year prior to our investigation, 14.6% of respondents had suicide ideation, 2.5% had made a specific suicide plan, and 1.8% had made a suicide attempt. The main risk factors for suicide ideation were dissatisfaction with the selected major of study, limited social support, recent negative life events and depressive tendency. The prevalence of suicide ideation among these college students was high. Appropriate measures focusing on the risk factors identified in this study should be urgently developed to prevent suicides in college students.

  18. What is a risk. [Quantitative risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schoen, G [Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt, Braunschweig (Germany, F.R.)

    1979-02-01

    The following article is a revised version of a lecture given by the author during the VDE meeting 'Technical Expert Activities' in Brunswick. First of all, the concept of 'risk' is discussed which leads to a probability scale which then permits a definition of the 'justifiable risk' as the boundary between 'hazard' and 'safety'. The boundary is quantified indirectly from laws, regulations, instructions, etc. to the 'Technological rules' for special fields of application by minimum requirement data. These viewpoints described in detail are not only of substantial significance for the creation of safety regulations but also for their application and consequently for jurisdiction.

  19. Overweight Without Central Obesity, Cardiovascular Risk, and All-Cause Mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Xin; Liu, Chen; Chen, Yili; He, Jiangui; Dong, Yugang

    2018-04-12

    To assess the association of overweight without central obesity with risks of mortality. We included 14,299 participants in the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (from October 18, 1988, through October 15, 1994). According to their body mass index and waist circumference, participants were categorized into 7 anthropometric groups. Logistic regression models were used to assess the relation of cardiovascular risk factors (hypertension, diabetes, or hypercholesterolemia) and 10-year cardiovascular risk to anthropometric groups. Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the risk of all-cause mortality, and competing-risks regression models were used for calculating cardiovascular and noncardiovascular mortality. Compared with those with normal body mass index and waist circumference, overweight men without central obesity were more likely to have all 3 cardiovascular risk factors and a high cardiovascular risk, whereas women in this anthropometric group were more likely to have hypercholesterolemia. In proportional hazards models, overweight without central obesity was associated with lower all-cause mortality among men in the population with cardiovascular risk factors (hazard ratio, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.56-0.89; P=.004) and the general population (hazard ratio, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.60-0.87; P=.001), whereas results of these comparisons among women were not significant (P>.05). In competing risk analyses, overweight men without central obesity had a lower risk of noncardiovascular mortality, but not cardiovascular mortality. Although overweight without central obesity was associated with cardiovascular risk factors and a high cardiovascular risk among men, men in this anthropometric group had a lower mortality risk. Copyright © 2018 Mayo Foundation for Medical Education and Research. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Central venous pressure monitoring via peripherally or centrally inserted central catheters: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanfilippo, Filippo; Noto, Alberto; Martucci, Gennaro; Farbo, Marco; Burgio, Gaetano; Biasucci, Daniele G

    2017-07-14

    The central venous pressure (CVP) is the most commonly used static marker of preload for guiding fluid therapy in critically ill patients, though its usefulness remains controversial. Centrally inserted central catheters (CICCs) are the gold-standard devices for CVP monitoring but peripherally inserted central catheters (PICCs) may represent a valid alternative. We undertook a systematic review and meta-analysis with the aim to investigate whether the difference between PICC- and CICC-measured CVP is not significant. We searched for clinical studies published in PubMed and EMBASE databases from inception until December 21st 2016. We included studies providing data on paired and simultaneous CVP measurement from PICCs and CICCs. We conducted two analyses on the values of CVP, the first one according to the total number of CVP assessments, the second one considering the number of patients recruited. Four studies matched the inclusion criteria, but only three of them provided data for the meta-analyses. Both analyses showed non-significant differences between PICC-measured and CICC-measured CVP: 1489 paired simultaneous CVP assessments (MD 0.16, 95%CI -0.14, 0.45, p = 0.30) on a total of 57 patients (MD 0.22, 95%CI -1.46, 1.91, p = 0.80). Both analyses showed no heterogeneity (I2 = 0%). Available evidence supports that CVP monitoring with PICCs is accurate and reproduces similar values to those obtained from CICCs. The possibility to monitor CVP should not be used among clinical criteria for preferring a CICC over a PICC line.

  1. Risk analysis in radiosurgery treatments using risk matrices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delgado, J. M.; Sanchez Cayela, C.; Ramirez, M. L.; Perez, A.

    2011-01-01

    The aim of this study is the risk analysis process stereotactic single-dose radiotherapy and evaluation of those initiating events that lead to increased risk and a possible solution in the design of barriers.

  2. Modeling infection transmission in primate networks to predict centrality-based risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romano, Valéria; Duboscq, Julie; Sarabian, Cécile; Thomas, Elodie; Sueur, Cédric; MacIntosh, Andrew J J

    2016-07-01

    Social structure can theoretically regulate disease risk by mediating exposure to pathogens via social proximity and contact. Investigating the role of central individuals within a network may help predict infectious agent transmission as well as implement disease control strategies, but little is known about such dynamics in real primate networks. We combined social network analysis and a modeling approach to better understand transmission of a theoretical infectious agent in wild Japanese macaques, highly social animals which form extended but highly differentiated social networks. We collected focal data from adult females living on the islands of Koshima and Yakushima, Japan. Individual identities as well as grooming networks were included in a Markov graph-based simulation. In this model, the probability that an individual will transmit an infectious agent depends on the strength of its relationships with other group members. Similarly, its probability of being infected depends on its relationships with already infected group members. We correlated: (i) the percentage of subjects infected during a latency-constrained epidemic; (ii) the mean latency to complete transmission; (iii) the probability that an individual is infected first among all group members; and (iv) each individual's mean rank in the chain of transmission with different individual network centralities (eigenvector, strength, betweenness). Our results support the hypothesis that more central individuals transmit infections in a shorter amount of time and to more subjects but also become infected more quickly than less central individuals. However, we also observed that the spread of infectious agents on the Yakushima network did not always differ from expectations of spread on random networks. Generalizations about the importance of observed social networks in pathogen flow should thus be made with caution, since individual characteristics in some real world networks appear less relevant than

  3. Computational content analysis of European Central Bank statements

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Milea, D.V.; Almeida, R.J.; Sharef, N.M.; Kaymak, U.; Frasincar, F.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we present a framework for the computational content analysis of European Central Bank (ECB) statements. Based on this framework, we provide two approaches that can be used in a practical context. Both approaches use the content of ECB statements to predict upward and downward movement

  4. Centralization vs. Decentralization: A Location Analysis Approach for Librarians

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raffel, Jeffrey; Shishko, Robert

    1972-01-01

    An application of location theory to the question of centralized versus decentralized library facilities for a university, with relevance for special libraries is presented. The analysis provides models for a single library, for two or more libraries, or for decentralized facilities. (6 references) (Author/NH)

  5. Geo-risk in Central Africa: integrating multi-hazards and vulnerability to support risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kervyn, Francois; Nicolas, d'Oreye; Haventith, Hans-Balder; Kervyn, Matthieu; Caroline, Michellier; Trefon, Theodore; Wolff, Eleonore

    2013-04-01

    In some places, geo-hazards are a major concern for population, the assets, and the economy. This is especially the case in the East African Rift (EAR), where high volcanic and tectonic activities are sometimes coupled with geopolitical issues and dense population as in the Kivu rift area. That area is one of the most densely populated regions of Central Africa and is affected by decades of political instability and subsequent humanitarian crisis. In that region, geo-hazards are poorly assessed despite the numerous recent and historical events. Moreover, the relief of the rift also corresponds in this area to the main political boundaries, which complicates the coordination and the management of geo-hazards monitoring networks and related mitigation measures. Based on the experience acquired through several projects focused on hazard assessment and reinforcement of local monitoring capacity, the GeoRisCA project is addressing the assessment of the global risk related to the major geohazards that affect the region. Taking into account the identified factors, GeoRisCA's objective is to assess the risk from multi geohazards in a region which is subject to many (possibly combined) disasters every year and which could undergo a large impact disaster in the coming years. At regional scale, the high seismicity and the volcanic activity are the most important concerns. Possible eruptions of lethal gas in certain area around Goma, and the large number of reported and likely future mass movements as well as site-specific seismic amplification effects increase the danger at local scale. As both human lives and specific ecosystems are under threat, comprehensive methodologies are required to reliably assess multi geohazards over both short and long terms and to clearly outline and map related risk. These tools are needed by local and regional authorities as well as local and international stakeholders in management and mitigation processes. Developed methodologies in Geo

  6. Risk Analysis Group annual progress report 1984

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1985-06-01

    The activities of the Risk Analysis Group at Risoe during 1984 are presented. These include descriptions in some detail of work on general development topics and risk analysis performed as contractor. (author)

  7. RISK ANALYSIS IN MILK PROCESSING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. PIRVUTOIU

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper aimed to evaluate Risk bankruptcy using “Score Method” based on Canon and Holder’s Model. The data were collected from the Balance Sheet and Profit and Loss Account for the period 2005-2007, recorded by a Meat processing Plant (Rador Commercial Company .The study has put in evidence the financial situation of the company,the level of the main financial ratios fundamenting the calculation of Z score function value in the three years The low values of Z score function recorded every year reflects that the company is still facing backruptcy. However , the worst situation was recorded in the years 2005 and 2006, when baknruptcy risk was ranging between 70 – 80 % . In the year 2007, the risk bankruptcy was lower, ranging between 50-70 % , as Z function recorded a value lower than 4 .For Meat processing companies such an analysis is compulsory at present as long as business environment is very risky in our country.

  8. Risk analysis; Analisis de riesgos

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baron, J H; Nunez McLeod, J; Rivera, S S [Universidad Nacional de Cuyo, Mendoza (Argentina). Instituto de Capacitacion Especial y Desarrollo de Ingenieria Asistida por Computadora (CEDIAC)

    1997-07-01

    This book contains a selection of research works performed in the CEDIAC Institute (Cuyo National University) in the area of Risk Analysis, with specific orientations to the subjects of uncertainty and sensitivity studies, software reliability, severe accident modeling, etc. This volume presents important material for all those researches who want to have an insight in the risk analysis field, as a tool to solution several problems frequently found in the engineering and applied sciences field, as well as for the academic teachers who want to keep up to date, including the new developments and improvements continuously arising in this field. [Spanish] Este libro contiene una seleccion de trabajos de investigacion realizados dentro del Instituto de Capacitacion Especial y Desarrollo de la Ingenieria Asistida por Computadora en el area del analisis de riesgos, con una orientacion hacia el estudio de incertidumbres y sensibilidad, confiabilidad de software, modelacion de accidentes severos, etc. Este volumen recoge un material de indudable importancia e interes para todos aquellos investigadores y profesionales que desean incursionar en este campo del analisis de riesgos como herramienta para la solucion de problemas frecuentemente encontrados en la ingenieria y las ciencias aplicadas, asi como para los academicos que desean mantenerse al dia, conociendo los nuevos desarrollos y tecnicas que constantemente aparecen en su area.

  9. Gender roles and perceptions of malaria risk in agricultural communities of Mwea Division in Central Kenya.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woldu, Dawit Okubatsion; Haile, Zelalem Teka

    2015-01-01

    We examined gender differences in the perception of high malaria risk in women and factors associated with a high number of malaria episodes in the Mwea Division of Central Kenya. Ethnographic and successive free listing interviews (an open-ended data collection technique used to show the relation of items in a given domain) with 53 key informants and structured interviews conducted from June to October 2010 with 250 respondents who represented the socioeconomic and geographical diversity of the area were analyzed. Qualitative text analysis and inferential statistics were employed. While a greater proportion of men (51.6%) attributed women's high malaria risk to their "biological weakness," most women believed that their high malaria risk was related to their role in the agricultural fields (43.6%) and to their household responsibilities (23.1%). Compared to men, women were more likely to work in wet aspects of agricultural activities (χ(2) (2, N = 153) = 13.47, p gender roles in agricultural communities in Mwea may play an important role in explaining disparity in reported malaria incidence. While identification of ecological and economic determinants of malaria is important, gender-based research can make a significant contribution to the development of effective and sustainable malaria reduction strategies.

  10. A background to risk analysis. Vol. 3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, J.R.

    1979-01-01

    This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles, and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justifi- cation or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appenix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 3 contains chapters on quantification of risk, failure and accident probability, risk analysis and design, and examles of risk analysis for process plant. (BP)

  11. A background risk analysis. Vol. 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, J.R.

    1979-01-01

    This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles, and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques, described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justification or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appendix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 1 contains a short history of risk analysis, and chapters on risk, failures, errors and accidents, and general procedures for risk analysis. (BP)

  12. RAMS (Risk Analysis - Modular System) methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stenner, R.D.; Strenge, D.L.; Buck, J.W. [and others

    1996-10-01

    The Risk Analysis - Modular System (RAMS) was developed to serve as a broad scope risk analysis tool for the Risk Assessment of the Hanford Mission (RAHM) studies. The RAHM element provides risk analysis support for Hanford Strategic Analysis and Mission Planning activities. The RAHM also provides risk analysis support for the Hanford 10-Year Plan development activities. The RAMS tool draws from a collection of specifically designed databases and modular risk analysis methodologies and models. RAMS is a flexible modular system that can be focused on targeted risk analysis needs. It is specifically designed to address risks associated with overall strategy, technical alternative, and `what if` questions regarding the Hanford cleanup mission. RAMS is set up to address both near-term and long-term risk issues. Consistency is very important for any comparative risk analysis, and RAMS is designed to efficiently and consistently compare risks and produce risk reduction estimates. There is a wide range of output information that can be generated by RAMS. These outputs can be detailed by individual contaminants, waste forms, transport pathways, exposure scenarios, individuals, populations, etc. However, they can also be in rolled-up form to support high-level strategy decisions.

  13. Central hemodynamics in risk assessment strategies: additive value over and above brachial blood pressure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yannoutsos, Alexandra; Rinaldi, Elisa R; Zhang, Yi; Protogerou, Athanassios D; Safar, Michel E; Blacher, Jacques

    2015-01-01

    Although the clinical relevance of brachial blood pressure (BP) measurement for cardiovascular (CV) risk stratification is nowadays widely accepted, this approach can nevertheless present several limitations. Pulse pressure (PP) amplification accounts for the notable increase in PP from central to peripheral arterial sites. Target organs are more greatly exposed to central hemodynamic changes than peripheral organs. The pathophysiological significance of local BP pulsatility, which has a role in the pathogenesis of target organ damage in both the macro- and the microcirculation, may therefore not be accurately captured by brachial BP as traditionally evaluated with cuff measurements. The predictive value of central systolic BP and PP over brachial BP for major clinical outcomes has been demonstrated in the general population, in elderly adults and in patients at high CV risk, irrespective of the invasive or non-invasive methods used to assess central BP. Aortic stiffness, timing and intensity of wave reflections, and cardiac performance appear as major factors influencing central PP. Great emphasis has been placed on the role of aortic stiffness, disturbed arterial wave reflections and their intercorrelation in the pathophysiological mechanisms of CV diseases as well as on their capacity to predict target organ damage and clinical events. Comorbidities and age-related changes, together with gender-related specificities of arterial and cardiac parameters, are known to affect the predictive ability of central hemodynamics on individual CV risk.

  14. Central executive network in young people with familial risk for psychosis--the Oulu Brain and Mind Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jukuri, Tuomas; Kiviniemi, Vesa; Nikkinen, Juha; Miettunen, Jouko; Mäki, Pirjo; Mukkala, Sari; Koivukangas, Jenni; Nordström, Tanja; Parkkisenniemi, Juha; Moilanen, Irma; Barnett, Jennifer H; Jones, Peter B; Murray, Graham K; Veijola, Juha

    2015-02-01

    The central executive network controls and manages high-level cognitive functions. Abnormal activation in the central executive network has been related to psychosis and schizophrenia but it is not established how this applies to people with familial risk for psychosis (FR). We conducted a resting-state functional MRI (R-fMRI) in 72 (29 males) young adults with a history of psychosis in one or both parents (FR) but without psychosis themselves, and 72 (29 males) similarly healthy control subjects without parental psychosis. Both groups in the Oulu Brain and Mind Study were drawn from the Northern Finland Birth Cohort 1986. Participants were 20-25years old. Parental psychosis was established using the Care Register for Health Care. R-fMRI data pre-processing was conducted using independent component analysis with 30 and 70 components. A dual regression technique was used to detect between-group differences in the central executive network with pcontrol subjects in the right inferior frontal gyrus, a key area of central executive network corresponding to Brodmann areas 44 and 45, known as Broca's area. The volume of the lower activation area with 30 components was 896mm(3) and with 70 components was 1151mm(3). The activity of the central executive network differed in the right inferior frontal gyrus between FR and control groups. This suggests that abnormality of the right inferior frontal gyrus may be a central part of vulnerability for psychosis. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Disposal of household burned garbage and risk of low birth weight in Central Sulawesi Province, Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Puti Sari Hidayangsih

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available AbstrakLatar belakang: Pembakaran sampah di dalam rumah tanggadapat mempengaruhi berat badan bayi lahir rendah (BBLR. Pada tulisan ini disajikan pembakaran sampah di rumah tangga terhadap risiko BBLR.Metode: Analisis data menggunakan sebagian data studi potong lintang Riskesdas 2013 di Provinsi Sulawesi Tengah. Data yang dianalisis ialah data bayi berusia 0-11 bulan. Berat badan bayi waktu lahir berdasarkan catatan berat bayi saat lahir yang tercatat dalam kuesioner Riskesdas. Bayi dikategorikan BBLR jika berat badan waktu lahir kurang dari 2500 gram. Hasil: Di antara 281 bayi yang mempunyai catatan berat badan lahir terdapat 10,6% (23 bayi yang BBLR. Bayi yang tinggal di rumah tangga dengan perilaku pengelolaan sampah dengan cara dibakar dibandingkan dengan selain dibakar mempunyai risiko 2,3 kali lipat mengalami BBLR (RRa=2,28; 95% CI=1,18-8,61. Kesimpulan: Bayi yang tinggal di rumah tangga dengan sampah dibakar dibandingkan dengan tanpa sampah dibakar mempunyai risiko lebih tinggi BBLR di Provinsi Sulawesi Tengah, Indonesia. (Health Science Indones 2014;2:89-93Kata kunci: berat badan lahir rendah, pembakaran sampahAbstractBackground: The management of household waste by burning can affect the incidence of low birth weight (LBW. This paper aims to identify the burning of garbage at home and risk of low birth weight. Methods: This analysis used a part of Riskesdas 2013 data in the Central Sulawesi Province. Subjects analyzed were infants aged 0-11 months. Baby’s weight was based on the baby’s birth weightwhich was recorded in the questionnaire of Riskesdas. The infants were categorized as LBW, if the recorded birth weight was less than 2500 grams. Results: Out of 392 babies,  281 babies had recorded birth weightswhich could be proved by documentary evidence. The majority of babies were boys (50.9% and lived in rural areas (58.7%. The proportion of babies who had LBW was 10.6% (23 infants. The babies who were living in households with

  16. Do flood risk perceptions provide useful insights for flood risk management? Findings from central Vietnam

    OpenAIRE

    Bubeck, P.; Botzen, W.J.W.; Suu, L.T.T.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.

    2012-01-01

    Following the renewed attention for non-structural flood risk reduction measures implemented at the household level, there has been an increased interest in individual flood risk perceptions. The reason for this is the commonly-made assumption that flood risk perceptions drive the motivation of individuals to undertake flood risk mitigation measures, as well as the public's demand for flood protection, and therefore provide useful insights for flood risk management. This study empirically exa...

  17. Prevalence of maternal near miss and community-based risk factors in Central Uganda.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nansubuga, Elizabeth; Ayiga, Natal; Moyer, Cheryl A

    2016-11-01

    To examine the prevalence of maternal near-miss (MNM) and its associated risk factors in a community setting in Central Uganda. A cross-sectional research design employing multi-stage sampling collected data from women aged 15-49 years in Rakai, Uganda, who had been pregnant in the 3years preceding the survey, conducted between August 10 and December 31, 2013. Additionally, in-depth interviews were conducted. WHO-based disease and management criteria were used to identify MNM. Binary logistic regression was used to predict MNM risk factors. Content analysis was performed for qualitative data. Survey data were collected from 1557 women and 40 in-depth interviews were conducted. The MNM prevalence was 287.7 per 1000 pregnancies; the majority of MNMs resulted from hemorrhage. Unwanted pregnancies, a history of MNM, primipara, pregnancy danger signs, Banyakore ethnicity, and a partner who had completed primary education only were associated with increased odds of MNM (all Pstudies employing organ-failure MNM-diagnostic criteria. These findings illustrate the need to look beyond mortality statistics when assessing maternal health outcomes. Concerted efforts to increase supervised deliveries, access to emergency obstetric care, and access to contraceptives are warranted. Copyright © 2016 International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Central venous catheter-related thrombosis in senile male patients: New risk factors and predictors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Gao; Fu, Zhi-Qing; Zhu, Ping; Li, Shi-Jun

    2015-06-01

    Central venous catheterization (CVC)-related venous thrombosis is a common but serious clinical complication, thus prevention and treatment on this problem should be extensively investigated. In this research, we aimed to investigate the incidence rate of CVC-related venous thrombosis in senile patients and give a further discussion on the related risk factors and predictors. A total of 324 hospitalized senile male patients subjected to CVC were selected. Retrospective investigation and analysis were conducted on age, underlying diseases, clinical medications, catheterization position and side, catheter retention time, and incidence of CVC-related venous thrombosis complications. Basic laboratory test results during catheterization and thrombogenesis were also collected and analyzed. Among the 324 patients, 20 cases (6.17%) of CVC-related venous thrombosis were diagnoseds. The incidence rate of CVC-related venous thrombosis in subclavian vein catheterization was significantly lower than that in femoral vein catheterization (Pcatheterization (Pcatheterization and internal jugular vein catheterization (Pvenous thrombosis history (Pvenous thrombosis in senile male patients. Subclavian vein catheterization was the most appropriate choice among senile patients to decrease the incidence of CVC-related venous thrombosis. Previous venous thrombosis history, high lactate dehydrogenase level, low HDL level, and low albumin level were important risk factors in predicting CVC-related venous thrombosis.

  19. Central nervous system medications and falls risk in men aged 60-75 years

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Masud, Tahir; Frost, Morten; Ryg, Jesper

    2013-01-01

    Introduction: drugs acting on the central nervous system (CNS) increase falls risk. Most data on CNS drugs and falls are in women/mixed-sex populations. This study assessed the relationship between CNS drugs and falls in men aged 60-75 years.......Introduction: drugs acting on the central nervous system (CNS) increase falls risk. Most data on CNS drugs and falls are in women/mixed-sex populations. This study assessed the relationship between CNS drugs and falls in men aged 60-75 years....

  20. Streamlining project delivery through risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-08-01

    Project delivery is a significant area of concern and is subject to several risks throughout Plan Development : Process (PDP). These risks are attributed to major areas of project development, such as environmental : analysis, right-of-way (ROW) acqu...

  1. Incidence and risk factors for central venous access port-related infection in Chinese cancer patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Ting-Yao; Lee, Kuan-Der; Chen, Ping-Tsung; Chen, Min-Chi; Chen, Yi-Yang; Huang, Cih-En; Kuan, Feng-Che; Chen, Chih-Cheng; Lu, Chang Hsien

    2015-11-01

    Cytotoxic chemotherapy via central venous access ports is an important part of the standard treatment for most cancers, but it is accompanied with the risk of infections. This study aimed to analyze the incidence and risk factors for central venous access port-related infection (CPI) among Chinese patients receiving cytotoxic chemotherapy. Between January 1, 2002 and December 31, 2005 a total of 1391 cancer patients with 1449 totally implantable central venous access ports were evaluated. The log-rank test and Cox proportional hazards model were used for the analyses of risk factors. The overall CPI incidence rate was 0.21 per 1000 catheter-days. Hematological malignancies and head and neck cancer were associated with an increased risk of CPI (hazard ratio 4.00 and 4.11, respectively, both p risk of infection than for patients in a nonadjuvant setting (p ports. Implementation of an insertion bundle for the prevention of central line-associated bloodstream infections is warranted, especially for those patients with hematological and head and neck cancers, as well as for patients receiving chemotherapy in the metastatic settings. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  2. Radiation analysis for a generic centralized interim storage facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gillespie, S.G.; Lopez, P.; Eble, R.G.

    1997-01-01

    This paper documents the radiation analysis performed for the storage area of a generic Centralized Interim Storage Facility (CISF) for commercial spent nuclear fuel (SNF). The purpose of the analysis is to establish the CISF Protected Area and Restricted Area boundaries by modeling a representative SNF storage array, calculating the radiation dose at selected locations outside the storage area, and comparing the results with regulatory radiation dose limits. The particular challenge for this analysis is to adequately model a large (6000 cask) storage array with a reasonable amount of analysis time and effort. Previous analyses of SNF storage systems for Independent Spent Fuel Storage Installations at nuclear plant sites (for example in References 5.1 and 5.2) had only considered small arrays of storage casks. For such analyses, the dose contribution from each storage cask can be modeled individually. Since the large number of casks in the CISF storage array make such an approach unrealistic, a simplified model is required

  3. Adolescence as risk factor for adverse pregnancy outcome in Central Africa--a cross-sectional study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florian Kurth

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Sub-Saharan Africa has the highest rates of maternal and neonatal mortality worldwide. Young maternal age at delivery has been proposed as risk factor for adverse pregnancy outcome, yet there is insufficient data from Sub-Saharan Africa. The present study aimed to investigate the influence of maternal adolescence on pregnancy outcomes in the Central African country Gabon. METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Data on maternal age, parity, birth weight, gestational age, maternal Plasmodium falciparum infection, use of bednets, and intake of intermittent preventive treatment of malaria in pregnancy were collected in a cross-sectional survey in 775 women giving birth in three mother-child health centers in Gabon. Adolescent women (≤16 years of age had a significantly increased risk to deliver a baby with low birth weight in univariable analysis (22.8%, 13/57, vs. 9.3%, 67/718, OR: 2.9, 95% CI: 1.5-5.6 and young maternal age showed a statistically significant association with the risk for low birth weight in multivariable regression analysis after correction for established risk factors (OR: 2.7; 95% CI: 1.1-6.5. In further analysis adolescent women were shown to attend significantly less antenatal care visits than adult mothers (3.3±1.9 versus 4.4±1.9 mean visits, p<0.01, n = 356 and this difference accounted at least for part of the excess risk for low birth weight in adolescents. CONCLUSION: Our data demonstrate the importance of adolescent age as risk factor for adverse pregnancy outcome. Antenatal care programs specifically tailored for the needs of adolescents may be necessary to improve the frequency of antenatal care visits and pregnancy outcomes in this risk group in Central Africa.

  4. Centrality measures in temporal networks with time series analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Qiangjuan; Zhao, Chengli; Zhang, Xue; Wang, Xiaojie; Yi, Dongyun

    2017-05-01

    The study of identifying important nodes in networks has a wide application in different fields. However, the current researches are mostly based on static or aggregated networks. Recently, the increasing attention to networks with time-varying structure promotes the study of node centrality in temporal networks. In this paper, we define a supra-evolution matrix to depict the temporal network structure. With using of the time series analysis, the relationships between different time layers can be learned automatically. Based on the special form of the supra-evolution matrix, the eigenvector centrality calculating problem is turned into the calculation of eigenvectors of several low-dimensional matrices through iteration, which effectively reduces the computational complexity. Experiments are carried out on two real-world temporal networks, Enron email communication network and DBLP co-authorship network, the results of which show that our method is more efficient at discovering the important nodes than the common aggregating method.

  5. Interventions for central serous chorioretinopathy: a network meta-analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salehi, Mahsa; Wenick, Adam S; Law, Hua Andrew; Evans, Jennifer R; Gehlbach, Peter

    2016-01-01

    Background Central serous chorioretinopathy (CSC) is characterized by serous detachment of the neural retina with dysfunction of the choroid and retinal pigment epithelium (RPE). The effects on the retina are usually self limited, although some people are left with irreversible vision loss due to progressive and permanent photoreceptor damage or RPE atrophy. There have been a variety of interventions used in CSC, including, but not limited to, laser treatment, photodynamic therapy (PDT), and intravitreal injection of anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (anti-VEGF) agents. However, it is not known whether these or other treatments offer significant advantages over observation or other interventions. At present there is no evidence-based consensus on the management of CSC. Due in large part to the propensity for CSC to resolve spontaneously or to follow a waxing and waning course, the most common initial approach to treatment is observation. It remains unclear whether this is the best approach with regard to safety and efficacy. Objectives To compare the relative effectiveness of interventions for central serous chorioretinopathy. Search methods We searched CENTRAL (which contains the Cochrane Eyes and Vision Trials Register) (2015, Issue 9), Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid MEDLINE In-Process and Other Non-Indexed Citations, Ovid MEDLINE Daily, Ovid OLDMEDLINE (January 1946 to February 2014), EMBASE (January 1980 to October 2015), the ISRCTN registry (www.isrctn.com/editAdvancedSearch), ClinicalTrials.gov (www.clinicaltrials.gov) and the World Health Organization (WHO) International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP) (www.who.int/ictrp/search/en). We did not use any date or language restrictions in the electronic searches for trials. We last searched the electronic databases on 5 October 2015. Selection criteria Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that compared any intervention for CSC with any other intervention for CSC or control. Data collection and analysis Two

  6. Culture and landslide risk in the Central Andes of Bolivia and Peru

    OpenAIRE

    Nicholas Roberts

    2009-01-01

    Culture and its heritage play a major role in determining landslide risk in the Central Andes. Examples of some of these many possible influences are provided from natural and social science literature and from the author’s recent work in Bolivia. Landslide risk appears to have generally increased throughout the last millennium, due largely to anthropogenic modification of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and coping capacity. These changes result from both local and distant pressures and from ...

  7. Do flood risk perceptions provide useful insights for flood risk management? Findings from central Vietnam

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bubeck, P.; Botzen, W.J.W.; Suu, L.T.T.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.

    2012-01-01

    Following the renewed attention for non-structural flood risk reduction measures implemented at the household level, there has been an increased interest in individual flood risk perceptions. The reason for this is the commonly-made assumption that flood risk perceptions drive the motivation of

  8. Twenty-Four-Hour Central Pulse Pressure for Cardiovascular Events Prediction in a Low-Cardiovascular-Risk Population: Results From the Bordeaux Cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cremer, Antoine; Boulestreau, Romain; Gaillard, Prune; Lainé, Marion; Papaioannou, Georgios; Gosse, Philippe

    2018-02-23

    Central blood pressure (BP) is a promising marker to identify subjects with higher cardiovascular risk than expected by traditional risk factors. Significant results have been obtained in populations with high cardiovascular risk, but little is known about low-cardiovascular-risk patients, although the differences between central and peripheral BP (amplification) are usually greater in this population. The study aim was to evaluate central BP over 24 hours for cardiovascular event prediction in hypertensive subjects with low cardiovascular risk. Peripheral and central BPs were recorded during clinical visits and over 24 hours in hypertensive patients with low cardiovascular risk (Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation ≤5%). Our primary end point is the occurrence of a cardiovascular event during follow-up. To assess the potential interest in central pulse pressure over 24 hours, we performed Cox proportional hazard models analysis and comparison of area under the curves using the contrast test for peripheral and central BP. A cohort of 703 hypertensive subjects from Bordeaux were included. After the first 24 hours of BP measurement, the subjects were then followed up for an average of 112.5±70 months. We recorded 65 cardiovascular events during follow-up. Amplification was found to be significantly associated with cardiovascular events when added to peripheral 24-hour pulse pressure ( P =0.0259). The area under the curve of 24-hour central pulse pressure is significantly more important than area under the curve of office BP ( P =0.0296), and there is a trend of superiority with the area under the curve of peripheral 24-hour pulse pressure. Central pulse pressure over 24 hours improves the prediction of cardiovascular events for hypertensive patients with low cardiovascular risk compared to peripheral pulse pressure. © 2018 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

  9. The Aspects of Managing Risks in Connection with the Internationalization of Smes from Selected Central European Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martina Toulová

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Insufficient domestic demand and increasing competition force small and medium‑sized enterprises (SMEs to engage in internationalization process and enter to foreign markets. This process, however, carries risks that should be appropriate managed. In order to identify similarities and differences in the approach of SMEs from selected Central European countries towards managing these risks and find out whether perception of risks differ based on domestic country of the SMEs, questionnaire survey among Czech, Slovak, German, Austrian and Poland SMEs was performed in 2014. It was found that more Austrian and German SMEs, compared to Czech, Slovak and Polish SMEs, do not apply any method of risk analysis but are more focused on some form of protection in international operations. As the most common form was identified payment in advance. It was also found that Austrian and German SMEs prefer to use bank products rather that conclude long‑term contracts or verify the credibility of their foreign business partners used by Czech, Slovak and Poland SMEs. Based on statistical testing, significant differences appeared in risk perception of SMEs from different countries. Especially perception of market risks, transportation risks and risk of natural disasters.

  10. Integrated risk analysis of global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shlyakhter, Alexander; Wilson, Richard; Valverde A, L.J. Jr.

    1995-01-01

    This paper discusses several factors that should be considered in integrated risk analyses of global climate change. We begin by describing how the problem of global climate change can be subdivided into largely independent parts that can be linked together in an analytically tractable fashion. Uncertainty plays a central role in integrated risk analyses of global climate change. Accordingly, we consider various aspects of uncertainty as they relate to the climate change problem. We also consider the impacts of these uncertainties on various risk management issues, such as sequential decision strategies, value of information, and problems of interregional and intergenerational equity. (author)

  11. Risk of fire and dust explosions analysis in thermal Power station of ''As Pontes''; Analisis del Riesgo de fuego y Explosion en la Central Termica As Pontes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2000-07-01

    Among the numerous difficulties come up in the industrial processes that operate with coal, the handling of combustible solids constitutes a priority objective because of the potential risk of fire and dust explosions that implies. The aim of this project was to determine the coal usage conditions that assure total safety in its manipulation avoiding every risks at the Thermal Power Station. Several variables had to be considered starting with the basis concept of coal, which ranges very different types, compositions and origins and studying the coal handling and operation condition on different areas in the Thermal Power Station. (Author)

  12. A case-control study to identify risk factors for totally implantable central venous port-related bloodstream infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Guk Jin; Hong, Sook Hee; Roh, Sang Young; Park, Sa Rah; Lee, Myung Ah; Chun, Hoo Geun; Hong, Young Seon; Kang, Jin Hyoung; Kim, Sang Il; Kim, Youn Jeong; Chun, Ho Jong; Oh, Jung Suk

    2014-07-01

    To date, the risk factors for central venous port-related bloodstream infection (CVPBSI) in solid cancer patients have not been fully elucidated. We conducted this study in order to determine the risk factors for CVP-BSI in patients with solid cancer. A total of 1,642 patients with solid cancer received an implantable central venous port for delivery of chemotherapy between October 2008 and December 2011 in a single center. CVP-BSI was diagnosed in 66 patients (4%). We selected a control group of 130 patients, who were individually matched with respect to age, sex, and catheter insertion time. CVP-BSI occurred most frequently between September and November (37.9%). The most common pathogen was gram-positive cocci (n=35, 53.0%), followed by fungus (n=14, 21.2%). Multivariate analysis identified monthly catheter-stay as a risk factor for CVP-BSI (p=0.000), however, its risk was lower in primary gastrointestinal cancer than in other cancer (p=0.002). Initial metastatic disease and long catheter-stay were statistically significant factors affecting catheter life span (p=0.005 and p=0.000). Results of multivariate analysis showed that recent transfusion was a risk factor for mortality in patients with CVP-BSI (p=0.047). In analysis of the results with respect to risk factors, prolonged catheter-stay should be avoided as much as possible. It is necessary to be cautious of CVP-BSI in metastatic solid cancer, especially non-gastrointestinal cancer. In addition, avoidance of unnecessary transfusion is essential in order to reduce the mortality of CVP-BSI. Finally, considering the fact that confounding factors may have affected the results, conduct of a well-designed prospective controlled study is warranted.

  13. Multi-hazard risk analysis for management strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kappes, M.; Keiler, M.; Bell, R.; Glade, T.

    2009-04-01

    Risk management is very often operating in a reactive way, responding to an event, instead of proactive starting with risk analysis and building up the whole process of risk evaluation, prevention, event management and regeneration. Since damage and losses from natural hazards raise continuously more and more studies, concepts (e.g. Switzerland or South Tyrol-Bolozano) and software packages (e.g. ARMAGEDOM, HAZUS or RiskScape) are developed to guide, standardize and facilitate the risk analysis. But these approaches focus on different aspects and are mostly closely adapted to the situation (legislation, organization of the administration, specific processes etc.) of the specific country or region. We propose in this study the development of a flexible methodology for multi-hazard risk analysis, identifying the stakeholders and their needs, processes and their characteristics, modeling approaches as well as incoherencies occurring by combining all these different aspects. Based on this concept a flexible software package will be established consisting of ArcGIS as central base and being complemented by various modules for hazard modeling, vulnerability assessment and risk calculation. Not all modules will be developed newly but taken from the current state-of-the-art and connected or integrated into ArcGIS. For this purpose two study sites, Valtellina in Italy and Bacelonnette in France, were chosen and the hazards types debris flows, rockfalls, landslides, avalanches and floods are planned to be included in the tool for a regional multi-hazard risk analysis. Since the central idea of this tool is its flexibility this will only be a first step, in the future further processes and scales can be included and the instrument thus adapted to any study site.

  14. Risk analysis and safety rationale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bengtsson, G.

    1989-01-01

    Decision making with respect to safety is becoming more and more complex. The risk involved must be taken into account together with numerous other factors such as the benefits, the uncertainties and the public perception. Can the decision maker be aided by some kind of system, general rules of thumb, or broader perspective on similar decisions? This question has been addressed in a joint Nordic project relating to nuclear power. Modern techniques for risk assessment and management have been studied, and parallels drawn to such areas as offshore safety and management of toxic chemicals in the environment. The report summarises the finding of 5 major technical reports which have been published in the NORD-series. The topics includes developments, uncertainties and limitations in probabilistic safety assessments, negligible risks, risk-cost trade-offs, optimisation of nuclear safety and radiation protection, and the role of risks in the decision making process. (author) 84 refs

  15. Comparison of Central, Ambulatory, Home and Office Blood Pressure Measurement as Risk Markers for Mild Cognitive Impairment in Hypertensive Patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Teodora Yaneva-Sirakova

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Aims: We compared the role of central blood pressure (BP, ambulatory BP monitoring (ABPM, home-measured BP (HMBP and office BP measurement as risk markers for the development of mild cognitive impairment (MCI. Methods: 70 hypertensive patients on combination medical therapy were studied. Their mean age was 64.97 ± 8.88 years. Eighteen (25.71% were males and 52 (74.28% females. All of the patients underwent full physical examination, laboratory screening, echocardiography, and office, ambulatory, home and central BP measurement. The neuropsychological tests used were: Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE and Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA. SPSS 19 was used for the statistical analysis with a level of significance of 0.05. Results: The mean central pulse pressure values of patients with MCI were significantly (p = 0.016 higher than those of the patients without MCI. There was a weak negative correlation between central pulse pressure and the results from the MoCA and MMSE (r = –0.283, p = 0.017 and r = –0.241, p = 0.044, respectively. There was a correlation between ABPM and MCI as well as between HMBP and MCI. Conclusions: The correlation of central BP with target organ damage (MCI is as good as for the other types of measurements of BP (home and ambulatory. Office BP seems to be the poorest marker for the assessment of target organ damage.

  16. A background to risk analysis. Vol. 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, J.R.

    1979-01-01

    This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justification or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appendix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 2 treats generic methods of qualitative failure analysis. (BP)

  17. Risk of central nervous system defects in offspring of women with and without mental illness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayoub, Aimina; Fraser, William D; Low, Nancy; Arbour, Laura; Healy-Profitós, Jessica; Auger, Nathalie

    2018-02-22

    We sought to determine the relationship between maternal mental illness and the risk of having an infant with a central nervous system defect. We analyzed a cohort of 654,882 women aged less than 20 years between 1989 and 2013 who later delivered a live born infant in any hospital in Quebec, Canada. The primary exposure was mental illness during pregnancy or hospitalization for mental illness before pregnancy. The outcomes were neural and non-neural tube defects of the central nervous system in any offspring. We computed risk ratios (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the association between mental disorders and risk of central nervous system defects in log-binomial regression models adjusted for age at delivery, total parity, comorbidity, socioeconomic deprivation, place of residence, and time period. Maternal mental illness was associated with an increased risk of nervous system defects in offspring (RR 1.76, 95% CI 1.64-1.89). Hospitalization for any mental disorder was more strongly associated with non-neural tube (RR 1.84, 95% CI 1.71-1.99) than neural tube defects (RR 1.31, 95% CI 1.08-1.59). Women at greater risk of nervous system defects in offspring tended to be diagnosed with multiple mental disorders, have more than one hospitalization for mental disease, or be 17 or older at first hospitalization. A history of mental illness is associated with central nervous system defects in offspring. Women hospitalized for mental illness may merit counseling at first symptoms to prevent central nervous system defects at pregnancy.

  18. Culture and landslide risk in the Central Andes of Bolivia and Peru

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicholas Roberts

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Culture and its heritage play a major role in determining landslide risk in the Central Andes. Examples of some of these many possible influences are provided from natural and social science literature and from the author’s recent work in Bolivia. Landslide risk appears to have generally increased throughout the last millennium, due largely to anthropogenic modification of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and coping capacity. These changes result from both local and distant pressures and from contemporaneous and pervious cultural factors. Consequently, holistic examination of landslide risk necessitates consideration of culture and its heritage.

  19. Data-driven risk identification in phase III clinical trials using central statistical monitoring

    OpenAIRE

    Timmermans, Catherine; Venet, David; Burzykowski, Tomasz

    2016-01-01

    Our interest lies in quality control for clinical trials, in the context of risk-based monitoring (RBM). We specifically study the use of central statistical monitoring (CSM) to support RBM. Under an RBM paradigm, we claim that CSM has a key role to play in identifying the "risks to the most critical data elements and processes" that will drive targeted oversight. In order to support this claim, we first see how to characterize the risks that may affect clinical trials. We then discuss how CS...

  20. Risk Analysis of Telecom Enterprise Financing

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YU Hua; SHU Hua-ying

    2005-01-01

    The main research objects in this paper are the causes searching and risk estimating method for telecom enterprises' financial risks. The multi-mode financing for telecom enterprises makes it flexible to induce the capital and obtain the profit by corresponding projects. But there are also potential risks going with these financing modes. After making analysis of categories and causes of telecom enterprises' financing risk, a method by Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is put forward to estimating the financing risk. And the author makes her suggestion and opinion by example analysis, in order to provide some ideas and basis for telecom enterprise's financing decision-making.

  1. Numerical analysis of modified Central Solenoid insert design

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Khodak, Andrei, E-mail: akhodak@pppl.gov [Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ (United States); Martovetsky, Nicolai; Smirnov, Aleksandre [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Titus, Peter [Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ (United States)

    2015-10-15

    Highlights: • Modified design of coil for testing ITER superconducting cable is presented. • Numerical analysis allowed design verification. • Three-dimensional current sharing temperature distributions are obtained from the results. - Abstract: The United States ITER Project Office (USIPO) is responsible for fabrication of the Central Solenoid (CS) for ITER project. The ITER machine is currently under construction by seven parties in Cadarache, France. The CS Insert (CSI) project should provide a verification of the conductor performance in relevant conditions of temperature, field, currents and mechanical strain. The US IPO designed the CSI that will be tested at the Central Solenoid Model Coil (CSMC) Test Facility at JAEA, Naka. To validate the modified design three-dimensional numerical simulations were performed using coupled solver for simultaneous structural, thermal and electromagnetic analysis. Thermal and electromagnetic simulations supported structural calculations providing necessary loads and strains. According to current analysis design of the modified coil satisfies ITER magnet structural design criteria for the following conditions: (1) room temperature, no current, (2) temperature 4 K, no current, (3) temperature 4 K, current 60 kA direct charge, and (4) temperature 4 K, current 60 kA reverse charge. Fatigue life assessment analysis is performed for the alternating conditions of: temperature 4 K, no current, and temperature 4 K, current 45 kA direct charge. Results of fatigue analysis show that parts of the coil assembly can be qualified for up to 1 million cycles. Distributions of the Current Sharing Temperature (TCS) in the superconductor were obtained from numerical results using parameterization of the critical surface in the form similar to that proposed for ITER. Special ADPL scripts were developed for ANSYS allowing one-dimensional representation of TCS along the cable, as well as three-dimensional fields of TCS in superconductor

  2. PRA and Risk Informed Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernsen, Sidney A.; Simonen, Fredric A.; Balkey, Kenneth R.

    2006-01-01

    The Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code (BPVC) of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) has introduced a risk based approach into Section XI that covers Rules for Inservice Inspection of Nuclear Power Plant Components. The risk based approach requires application of the probabilistic risk assessments (PRA). Because no industry consensus standard existed for PRAs, ASME has developed a standard to evaluate the quality level of an available PRA needed to support a given risk based application. The paper describes the PRA standard, Section XI application of PRAs, and plans for broader applications of PRAs to other ASME nuclear codes and standards. The paper addresses several specific topics of interest to Section XI. Important consideration are special methods (surrogate components) used to overcome the lack of PRA treatments of passive components in PRAs. The approach allows calculations of conditional core damage probabilities both for component failures that cause initiating events and failures in standby systems that decrease the availability of these systems. The paper relates the explicit risk based methods of the new Section XI code cases to the implicit consideration of risk used in the development of Section XI. Other topics include the needed interactions of ISI engineers, plant operating staff, PRA specialists, and members of expert panels that review the risk based programs

  3. Advances in Risk Analysis with Big Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Tsan-Ming; Lambert, James H

    2017-08-01

    With cloud computing, Internet-of-things, wireless sensors, social media, fast storage and retrieval, etc., organizations and enterprises have access to unprecedented amounts and varieties of data. Current risk analysis methodology and applications are experiencing related advances and breakthroughs. For example, highway operations data are readily available, and making use of them reduces risks of traffic crashes and travel delays. Massive data of financial and enterprise systems support decision making under risk by individuals, industries, regulators, etc. In this introductory article, we first discuss the meaning of big data for risk analysis. We then examine recent advances in risk analysis with big data in several topic areas. For each area, we identify and introduce the relevant articles that are featured in the special issue. We conclude with a discussion on future research opportunities. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  4. 38 CFR 75.115 - Risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Risk analysis. 75.115 Section 75.115 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS (CONTINUED) INFORMATION SECURITY MATTERS Data Breaches § 75.115 Risk analysis. If a data breach involving sensitive personal information that is processed or...

  5. Spatial Analysis of Macro Economic in Central Java (PDRB Analysis in Year 1993-2003

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eddy Kiswanto

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to study the spatial analysis macroeconomics condition in central Java from 1993-2001 base on PDRB analysis. Central Java stands in the last position in the economic in Central Java based on PDRB variable and economic growth is in the lowest category in the comparation with another provinces in Java. This is reason why Central Java is categorized as "LL" (Low low. One of the prime sectors in Central Java is small medium scale enterprises which is dominated 30% of national market, but since the economic crisis stroke in 1997 the manufacture sector, especially industry and processing had collapse. In 1996-1997, the level of manufacture growth increased to 14.4% but then decreased until minus 19.3%. This condition caused by bankruptcy to many of the industries. The poverty profile in Central Java from 1999-2003 is average 23.3% from the total population every years. Central Java stepping to number 2 in level of poverty absolute number 1. In poverty relativity level, Central Java became number 1 in Java from 2002-2003 with the level of poverty reached above the national average. This fact shows the unsuccessfully effort in reducing the poverty level.

  6. Improving Flood Risk Management for California's Central Valley: How the State Developed a Toolbox for Large, System-wide Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pingel, N.; Liang, Y.; Bindra, A.

    2016-12-01

    More than 1 million Californians live and work in the floodplains of the Sacramento-San Joaquin Valley where flood risks are among the highest in the nation. In response to this threat to people, property and the environment, the Department of Water Resources (DWR) has been called to action to improve flood risk management. This has transpired through significant advances in development of flood information and tools, analysis, and planning. Senate Bill 5 directed DWR to prepare the Central Valley Flood Protection Plan (CVFPP) and update it every 5 years. A key component of this aggressive planning approach is answering the question: What is the current flood risk, and how would proposed improvements change flood risk throughout the system? Answering this question is a substantial challenge due to the size and complexity of the watershed and flood control system. The watershed is roughly 42,000 sq mi, and flows are controlled by numerous reservoirs, bypasses, and levees. To overcome this challenge, the State invested in development of a comprehensive analysis "tool box" through various DWR programs. Development of the tool box included: collection of hydro-meteorological, topographic, geotechnical, and economic data; development of rainfall-runoff, reservoir operation, hydraulic routing, and flood risk analysis models; and development of specialized applications and computing schemes to accelerate the analysis. With this toolbox, DWR is analyzing flood hazard, flood control system performance, exposure and vulnerability of people and property to flooding, consequence of flooding for specific events, and finally flood risk for a range of CVFPP alternatives. Based on the results, DWR will put forward a State Recommended Plan in the 2017 CVFPP. Further, the value of the analysis tool box extends beyond the CVFPP. It will serve as a foundation for other flood studies for years to come and has already been successfully applied for inundation mapping to support emergency

  7. A background to risk analysis. Vol. 4

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, J.R.

    1979-01-01

    This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles, and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justification or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appendix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 4 treats human error in plant operation. (BP)

  8. Centrality as a Method for the Evaluation of Semantic Resources for Disaster Risk Reduction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Otakar Čerba

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Clear and straightforward communication is a key aspect of all human activities related to crisis management. Since crisis management activities involve professionals from various disciplines using different terminology, clear and straightforward communication is difficult to achieve. Semantics as a broad science can help to overcome communication difficulties. This research focuses on the evaluation of available semantic resources including ontologies, thesauri, and controlled vocabularies for disaster risk reduction as part of crisis management. The main idea of the study is that the most appropriate source of broadly understandable terminology is such a semantic resource, which is accepted by—or at least connected to the majority of other resources. Important is not only the number of interconnected resources, but also the concrete position of the resource in the complex network of Linked Data resources. Although this is usually done by user experience, objective methods of resource semantic centrality can be applied. This can be described by centrality methods used mainly in graph theory. This article describes the calculation of four types of centrality methods (Outdegree, Indegree, Closeness, and Betweenness applied to 160 geographic concepts published as Linked Data and related to disaster risk reduction. Centralities were calculated for graph structures containing particular semantic resources as nodes and identity links as edges. The results show that (with some discussed exceptions the datasets with high values of centrality serve as important information resources, but they also include more concepts from preselected 160 geographic concepts. Therefore, they could be considered as the most suitable resources of terminology to make communication in the domain easier. The main research goal is to automate the semantic resources evaluation and to apply a well-known theoretical method (centrality to the semantic issues of Linked Data. It

  9. Contemporary approaches to reducing the risks of central counterparties based on the use of marginal contributions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Utkin Viktor Sergeyevich

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available To protect their own interests central counterparties has developed a number of procedures, including payment of guarantee margin by trading members as a means to ensure their positions. This article discusses a number of approaches, which attempt to simulate the risks of the Central Committee, as well as calculating the amount of margin and other resources in the event of insolvency. These approaches are based on the simulation of the three main types: (a statistical modeling; (b optimization modeling, and (c model of option pricing. The author incorporates the basic provisions of models.

  10. Reliability and validity of risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aven, Terje; Heide, Bjornar

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we investigate to what extent risk analysis meets the scientific quality requirements of reliability and validity. We distinguish between two types of approaches within risk analysis, relative frequency-based approaches and Bayesian approaches. The former category includes both traditional statistical inference methods and the so-called probability of frequency approach. Depending on the risk analysis approach, the aim of the analysis is different, the results are presented in different ways and consequently the meaning of the concepts reliability and validity are not the same.

  11. Gender violence, poverty and HIV infection risk among persons engaged in the sex industry: cross-national analysis of the political economy of sex markets in 30 European and Central Asian countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reeves, A; Steele, S; Stuckler, D; McKee, M; Amato-Gauci, A; Semenza, J C

    2017-11-01

    Persons engaged in the sex industry are at greater risk of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections than the general population. One major factor is exposure to higher levels of risky sexual activity. Expanding condom use is a critical prevention strategy, but this requires negotiation with those buying sex, which takes place in the context of cultural and economic constraints. Impoverished individuals who fear violence are more likely to forego condoms. Here we tested the hypotheses that poverty and fear of violence are two structural drivers of HIV infection risk in the sex industry. Using data from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control and the World Bank for 30 countries, we evaluated poverty, measured using the average income per day per person in the bottom 40% of the income distribution, and gender violence, measured using homicide rates in women and the proportion of women exposed to violence in the last 12 months and/or since age 16 years. We found that HIV prevalence among those in the sex industry was higher in countries where there were greater female homicide rates (β = 0.86; P = 0.018) and there was some evidence that self-reported exposure to violence was also associated with higher HIV prevalence (β = 1.37; P = 0.043). Conversely, HIV prevalence was lower in countries where average incomes among the poorest were greater (β = -1.05; P = 0.046). Our results are consistent with the theory that reducing poverty and exposure to violence may help reduce HIV infection risk among persons engaged in the sex industry. © 2017 British HIV Association.

  12. Probabilistic risk analysis for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hauptmanns, U.

    1988-01-01

    Risk analysis is applied if the calculation of risk from observed failures is not possible, because events contributing substantially to risk are too seldom, as in the case of nuclear reactors. The process of analysis provides a number of benefits. Some of them are listed. After this by no means complete enumeration of possible benefits to be derived from a risk analysis. An outline of risk studiesd for PWR's with some comments on the models used are given. The presentation is indebted to the detailed treatment of the subject given in the PRA Procedures Guide. Thereafter some results of the German Risk Study, Phase B, which is under way are communicated. The paper concludes with some remarks on probabilistic considerations in licensing procedures. (orig./DG)

  13. Adaptive servo ventilation for central sleep apnoea in heart failure : SERVE-HF on-treatment analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Woehrle, Holger; Cowie, Martin R.; Eulenburg, Christine; Suling, Anna; Angermann, Christiane; d'Ortho, Marie-Pia; Erdmann, Erland; Levy, Patrick; Simonds, Anita K.; Somers, Virend K.; Zannad, Faiez; Teschler, Helmut; Wegscheider, Karl

    2017-01-01

    This on-treatment analysis was conducted to facilitate understanding of mechanisms underlying the increased risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in heart failure patients with reduced ejection fraction and predominant central sleep apnoea randomised to adaptive servo ventilation versus the

  14. Properly pricing country risk: a model for pricing long-term fundamental risk applied to central and eastern European countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Debora Revoltella

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The private sector has used proxies such as sovereign credit ratings, spreads on sovereign bonds and spreads on sovereign credit default swaps (CDS to gauge country risk, even though these measures are pricing the risk of default of government bonds, which is different from the risks facing private participants in cross-border financing. Under normal market conditions, the CDS spreads are a very useful source of information on country risk. However, the recent crisis has shown that the CDS spreads might lead to some underpricing or overpricing of fundamentals in the case of excessively low or excessively high risk aversion. In this paper we develop an alternative measure of country risk that extracts the volatile, short-term market sentiment component from the sover eign CDS spread in order to improve its reliability in periods of market distress. We show that adverse market sentiment was a key driver of the sharp increase in sovereign CDS spreads of central and eastern European (CEE countries during the most severe phase of the crisis. We also show that our measure of country risk sheds some light on the observed stability of cross-border bank flows to CEE banks during the crisis.

  15. Evidence Report: Risk of Acute and Late Central Nervous System Effects from Radiation Exposure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Gregory A.; Simonsen, Lisa; Huff, Janice L.

    2016-01-01

    Possible acute and late risks to the central nervous system (CNS) from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPE) are concerns for human exploration of space. Acute CNS risks may include: altered cognitive function, reduced motor function, and behavioral changes, all of which may affect performance and human health. Late CNS risks may include neurological disorders such as Alzheimer's disease (AD), dementia and premature aging. Although detrimental CNS changes are observed in humans treated with high-dose radiation (e.g., gamma rays and 9 protons) for cancer and are supported by experimental evidence showing neurocognitive and behavioral effects in animal models, the significance of these results on the morbidity to astronauts has not been elucidated. There is a lack of human epidemiology data on which to base CNS risk estimates; therefore, risk projection based on scaling to human data, as done for cancer risk, is not possible for CNS risks. Research specific to the spaceflight environment using animal and cell models must be compiled to quantify the magnitude of CNS changes in order to estimate this risk and to establish validity of the current permissible exposure limits (PELs). In addition, the impact of radiation exposure in combination with individual sensitivity or other space flight factors, as well as assessment of the need for biological/pharmaceutical countermeasures, will be considered after further definition of CNS risk occurs.

  16. Bias in risk-benefit analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mazur, A.

    1985-01-01

    Risk-benefit analysis has become popular in the past decade as a means of improving decision making, especially in the area of technology policy. Here risk-benefit analysis is compared to other (equally defensible) approaches to decision making, showing how it favors some political interests more than others, and suggesting why it has recently come to the fore as a tool of political analysis. A considerable portion of the discussion concerns nuclear power. 6 references

  17. Collision Risk Analysis for HSC

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Urban, Jesper; Pedersen, Preben Terndrup; Simonsen, Bo Cerup

    1999-01-01

    High Speed Craft (HSC) have a risk profile, which is distinctly different from conventional ferries. Due to different hull building material, structural layout, compartmentation and operation, both frequency and consequences of collision and grounding accidents must be expected to be different fr...

  18. Generalized indices for radiation risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bykov, A.A.; Demin, V.F.

    1989-01-01

    A new approach to ensuring nuclear safety has begun forming since the early eighties. The approach based on the probabilistic safety analysis, the principles of acceptable risk, the optimization of safety measures, etc. has forced a complex of adequate quantitative methods of assessment, safety analysis and risk management to be developed. The method of radiation risk assessment and analysis hold a prominent place in the complex. National and international research and regulatory organizations ICRP, IAEA, WHO, UNSCEAR, OECD/NEA have given much attention to the development of the conceptual and methodological basis of those methods. Some resolutions of the National Commission of Radiological Protection (NCRP) and the Problem Commission on Radiation Hygiene of the USSR Ministry of Health should be also noted. Both CBA (cost benefit analysis) and other methods of radiation risk analysis and safety management use a system of natural and socio-economic indices characterizing the radiation risk or damage. There exist a number of problems associated with the introduction, justification and use of these indices. For example, the price, a, of radiation damage, or collective dose unit, is a noteworthy index. The difficulties in its qualitative and quantitative determination are still an obstacle for a wide application of CBA to the radiation risk analysis and management. During recent 10-15 years these problems have been a subject of consideration for many authors. The present paper also considers the issues of the qualitative and quantitative justification of the indices of radiation risk analysis

  19. Free vibration analysis of rectangular plates with central cutout

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kanak Kalita

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available A nine-node isoparametric plate element in conjunction with first-order shear deformation theory is used for free vibration analysis of rectangular plates with central cutouts. Both thick and thin plate problems are solved for various aspect ratios and boundary conditions. In this article, primary focus is given to the effect of rotary inertia on natural frequencies of perforated rectangular plates. It is found that rotary inertia has significant effect on thick plates, while for thin plates the rotary inertia term can be ignored. It is seen that the numerical convergence is very rapid and based on comparison with experimental and analytical data from literature, it is proposed that the present formulation is capable of yielding highly accurate results. Finally, some new numerical solutions are provided here, which may serve as benchmark for future research on similar problems.

  20. Central Obesity and H. pylori Infection Influence Risk of Barrett's Esophagus in an Asian Population.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chih-Cheng Chen

    Full Text Available The prevalence rates of Barrett's esophagus (BE in western countries are higher than Asian ones, but little is known about their difference among risk factors of BE. The aim of this study is to investigate the associations of various risk factors including central obesity, body mass index (BMI, metabolic syndrome and H. pylori infection, with BE.A total of 161 subjects with BE were enrolled and compared to age- and gender-matched controls randomly sampled (1:4 from check-up center in same hospital. Central obesity was defined by waist circumference (female>80cm; male>90cm, metabolic syndrome by the modified National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III criteria in Taiwan. Independent risk factors for BE were identified by multiple logistic regression analyses.The mean age for BE was 53.8±13.7 years and 75.8% was male. H. pylori infection status was detected by the rapid urease test with the prevalence of 28.4% and 44.4% in the BE patients and controls, respectively. The univariate logistic regression analyses showed the risk was associated with higher waist circumference (odds ratio [OR], 2.53; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.78-3.60, metabolic syndrome (OR, 2.02; 95% CI, 1.38-2.96 and negative H. pylori infection (OR, 0.50; 95% CI, 0.34-0.74. However, multivariate logistic regression analyses revealed that BE associated with higher waist circumference (adjusted OR, 2.79; 95% CI, 1.89-4.12 and negative H. pylori infection (adjusted OR, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.30-0.70.Central obesity is associated with a higher risk of BE whereas H. pylori infection with a lower risk in an ethnic Chinese population.

  1. Comparing the Central Eight Risk Factors: Do They Differ Across Age Groups of Sex Offenders?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilpert, Julia; van Horn, Joan E; Boonmann, Cyril

    2018-02-01

    Following the risk-need-responsivity (RNR) model, cognitive-behavioral therapy is considered most effective in reducing recidivism when based on dynamic risk factors. As studies have found differences of these factors across age, exploring this seems beneficial. The current study investigates the Central Eight (C8) risk factors across six age groups of outpatient sex offenders ( N = 650). Results showed that recidivism rates and age were inversely related from 19 years and up. Half of the C8 did not predict general recidivism at all, substance abuse, antisocial cognition, antisocial associates, and history of antisocial behavior in only one or several age groups. However, factors differed between age groups, with the youngest group demonstrating the most dysfunction in several areas and the oldest group the least. It is concluded that the C8 risk factors seem to lose significance in the older age groups. Results may benefit targeting treatment goals.

  2. Birth weight and order as risk factors for childhood central nervous system tumors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacLean, Jane; Partap, Sonia; Reynolds, Peggy; Von Behren, Julie; Fisher, Paul Graham

    2010-09-01

    To determine whether birth characteristics related to maternal-fetal health in utero are associated with the development of childhood central nervous system tumors. We identified, from the California Cancer Registry, 3733 children under age 15 diagnosed with childhood central nervous system tumors between 1988 and 2006 and linked these cases to their California birth certificates. Four controls per case, matched on birth date and sex, were randomly selected from the same birth files. We evaluated associations of multiple childhood CNS tumor subtypes with birth weight and birth order. Low birth weight was associated with a reduced risk of low-grade gliomas (OR=0.67; 95% CI, 0.46 to 0.97) and high birth weight was associated with increased risk of high-grade gliomas (OR=1.57; 95% CI, 1.16 to 2.12). High birth order (fourth or higher) was associated with decreased risk of low-grade gliomas (OR=0.75; 95% CI, 0.56 to 0.99) and increased risk of high-grade gliomas (OR=1.32; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.72 for second order). Factors that drive growth in utero may increase the risk of low-grade gliomas. There may be a similar relationship in high-grade gliomas, although other factors, such as early infection, may modify this association. Additional investigation is warranted to validate and further define these findings. Copyright (c) 2010 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Predicting climate change extirpation risk for central and southern Appalachian forest tree species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kevin M. Potter; William W. Hargrove; Frank H. Koch

    2010-01-01

    Climate change will likely pose a severe threat to the viability of certain forest tree species, which will be forced either to adapt to new conditions or to shift to more favorable environments if they are to survive. Several forest tree species of the central and southern Appalachians may be at particular risk, since they occur in limited high-elevation ranges and/or...

  4. Safety analysis, risk assessment, and risk acceptance criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jamali, K.

    1997-01-01

    This paper discusses a number of topics that relate safety analysis as documented in the Department of Energy (DOE) safety analysis reports (SARs), probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) as characterized primarily in the context of the techniques that have assumed some level of formality in commercial nuclear power plant applications, and risk acceptance criteria as an outgrowth of PRA applications. DOE SARs of interest are those that are prepared for DOE facilities under DOE Order 5480.23 and the implementing guidance in DOE STD-3009-94. It must be noted that the primary area of application for DOE STD-3009 is existing DOE facilities and that certain modifications of the STD-3009 approach are necessary in SARs for new facilities. Moreover, it is the hazard analysis (HA) and accident analysis (AA) portions of these SARs that are relevant to the present discussions. Although PRAs can be qualitative in nature, PRA as used in this paper refers more generally to all quantitative risk assessments and their underlying methods. HA as used in this paper refers more generally to all qualitative risk assessments and their underlying methods that have been in use in hazardous facilities other than nuclear power plants. This discussion includes both quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methods. PRA has been used, improved, developed, and refined since the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) was published in 1975 by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Much debate has ensued since WASH-1400 on exactly what the role of PRA should be in plant design, reactor licensing, 'ensuring' plant and process safety, and a large number of other decisions that must be made for potentially hazardous activities. Of particular interest in this area is whether the risks quantified using PRA should be compared with numerical risk acceptance criteria (RACs) to determine whether a facility is 'safe.' Use of RACs requires quantitative estimates of consequence frequency and magnitude

  5. Contested Communication; A Critical Analysis of Central Bank Speech

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L.H.J. Noordegraaf-Eelens (Liesbeth)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThe more important words become, the more difficult it is to say things. This is the central message of this study on the communication by central bank presidents. Since the end of the twentieth century, central bank presidents see communication as an important means to influence

  6. Ontology-based specification, identification and analysis of perioperative risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uciteli, Alexandr; Neumann, Juliane; Tahar, Kais; Saleh, Kutaiba; Stucke, Stephan; Faulbrück-Röhr, Sebastian; Kaeding, André; Specht, Martin; Schmidt, Tobias; Neumuth, Thomas; Besting, Andreas; Stegemann, Dominik; Portheine, Frank; Herre, Heinrich

    2017-09-06

    Medical personnel in hospitals often works under great physical and mental strain. In medical decision-making, errors can never be completely ruled out. Several studies have shown that between 50 and 60% of adverse events could have been avoided through better organization, more attention or more effective security procedures. Critical situations especially arise during interdisciplinary collaboration and the use of complex medical technology, for example during surgical interventions and in perioperative settings (the period of time before, during and after surgical intervention). In this paper, we present an ontology and an ontology-based software system, which can identify risks across medical processes and supports the avoidance of errors in particular in the perioperative setting. We developed a practicable definition of the risk notion, which is easily understandable by the medical staff and is usable for the software tools. Based on this definition, we developed a Risk Identification Ontology (RIO) and used it for the specification and the identification of perioperative risks. An agent system was developed, which gathers risk-relevant data during the whole perioperative treatment process from various sources and provides it for risk identification and analysis in a centralized fashion. The results of such an analysis are provided to the medical personnel in form of context-sensitive hints and alerts. For the identification of the ontologically specified risks, we developed an ontology-based software module, called Ontology-based Risk Detector (OntoRiDe). About 20 risks relating to cochlear implantation (CI) have already been implemented. Comprehensive testing has indicated the correctness of the data acquisition, risk identification and analysis components, as well as the web-based visualization of results.

  7. GIS risk analysis of hazardous materials transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anders, C.; Olsten, J.

    1991-01-01

    The Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to assess the risks and vulnerability of transporting hazardous materials and wastes (such as gasoline, explosives, poisons, etc) on the Arizona highway system. This paper discusses the methodology that was utilized, and the application of GIS systems to risk analysis problems

  8. Dealing with phenomenological uncertainty in risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Theofanous, T.G.

    1994-01-01

    The Risk-Oriented Accident Analysis Methodology (ROAAM) is summarized and developed further towards a formal definition. The key ideas behind the methodology and these more formal aspects are also presented and discussed

  9. Risk and safety analysis of nuclear systems

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lee, John C; McCormick, Norman J

    2011-01-01

    .... The first half of the book covers the principles of risk analysis, the techniques used to develop and update a reliability data base, the reliability of multi-component systems, Markov methods used...

  10. Risk analysis for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koelzer, W.

    1983-01-01

    The German risk analysis program for nuclear power plants aiming at the man and the environment is presented. An accident consequence model to calculate the radiological impact and the potential health effects is described. (E.G.) [pt

  11. Probabilistic risk analysis in chemical engineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmalz, F.

    1991-01-01

    In risk analysis in the chemical industry, recognising potential risks is considered more important than assessing their quantitative extent. Even in assessing risks, emphasis is not on the probability involved but on the possible extent. Qualitative assessment has proved valuable here. Probabilistic methods are used in individual cases where the wide implications make it essential to be able to assess the reliability of safety precautions. In this case, assessment therefore centres on the reliability of technical systems and not on the extent of a chemical risk. 7 figs

  12. Analysis of expected ATM processes changes in Central Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomislav MIHETEC

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper evaluates feasibility of the new Air Traffic Management (ATM organisation in Functional Airspace Block Central Europe (FAB CE and specifies the implementation scenarios that are proposed by Central European Air Traffic Services Coordination Group (CEATS CG. The paper elaborates elements of required Functional Airspace Block Central Europe implementation and identifies and assesses the implementation blockers. Provision of air navigation services in European Civil Aviation Conference (ECAC area is diversely regulated and highly fragmented.

  13. Reliability and risk analysis methods research plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1984-10-01

    This document presents a plan for reliability and risk analysis methods research to be performed mainly by the Reactor Risk Branch (RRB), Division of Risk Analysis and Operations (DRAO), Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research. It includes those activities of other DRAO branches which are very closely related to those of the RRB. Related or interfacing programs of other divisions, offices and organizations are merely indicated. The primary use of this document is envisioned as an NRC working document, covering about a 3-year period, to foster better coordination in reliability and risk analysis methods development between the offices of Nuclear Regulatory Research and Nuclear Reactor Regulation. It will also serve as an information source for contractors and others to more clearly understand the objectives, needs, programmatic activities and interfaces together with the overall logical structure of the program

  14. Gender Analysis of Risk in Innovation System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ayinde, Ope; Muchie, Mammo; Abaniyan, E. O.

    2011-01-01

    the new maize variety. The analytical tools used include descriptive statistics, regression model; risk utility functions and risk parameter analysis. The result showed that invasion by animals, disease and pest, lack of access to credit wind and price fluctuation were the major risk facing the maize......This study analyzed risk by gender in innovation in Kwara state, Nigeria, using downy mildew resistant maize production as case study. The study employed primary and secondary data. The primary data were collected from well-structured questionnaires administered to both male and female producing...... producers in the area in the usage of the new innovation. The study also revealed that male producers were willing to take risk in the new maize variety production than the female, while the females were more indifferent to the risk involved in the new maize production variety than males. None...

  15. Intentional risk management through complex networks analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Chapela, Victor; Moral, Santiago; Romance, Miguel

    2015-01-01

    This book combines game theory and complex networks to examine intentional technological risk through modeling. As information security risks are in constant evolution,  the methodologies and tools to manage them must evolve to an ever-changing environment. A formal global methodology is explained  in this book, which is able to analyze risks in cyber security based on complex network models and ideas extracted from the Nash equilibrium. A risk management methodology for IT critical infrastructures is introduced which provides guidance and analysis on decision making models and real situations. This model manages the risk of succumbing to a digital attack and assesses an attack from the following three variables: income obtained, expense needed to carry out an attack, and the potential consequences for an attack. Graduate students and researchers interested in cyber security, complex network applications and intentional risk will find this book useful as it is filled with a number of models, methodologies a...

  16. Network centrality measures and systemic risk: An application to the Turkish financial crisis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuzubaş, Tolga Umut; Ömercikoğlu, Inci; Saltoğlu, Burak

    2014-07-01

    In this paper, we analyze the performance of several network centrality measures in detecting systemically important financial institutions (SIFI) using data from the Turkish Interbank market during the financial crisis in 2000. We employ various network investigation tools such as volume, transactions, links, connectivity and reciprocity to gain a clearer picture of the network topology of the interbank market. We study the main borrower role of Demirbank in the crash of the banking system with network centrality measures which are extensively used in the network theory. This ex-post analysis of the crisis shows that centrality measures perform well in identifying and monitoring systemically important financial institutions which provide useful insights for financial regulations.

  17. Data-driven risk identification in phase III clinical trials using central statistical monitoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timmermans, Catherine; Venet, David; Burzykowski, Tomasz

    2016-02-01

    Our interest lies in quality control for clinical trials, in the context of risk-based monitoring (RBM). We specifically study the use of central statistical monitoring (CSM) to support RBM. Under an RBM paradigm, we claim that CSM has a key role to play in identifying the "risks to the most critical data elements and processes" that will drive targeted oversight. In order to support this claim, we first see how to characterize the risks that may affect clinical trials. We then discuss how CSM can be understood as a tool for providing a set of data-driven key risk indicators (KRIs), which help to organize adaptive targeted monitoring. Several case studies are provided where issues in a clinical trial have been identified thanks to targeted investigation after the identification of a risk using CSM. Using CSM to build data-driven KRIs helps to identify different kinds of issues in clinical trials. This ability is directly linked with the exhaustiveness of the CSM approach and its flexibility in the definition of the risks that are searched for when identifying the KRIs. In practice, a CSM assessment of the clinical database seems essential to ensure data quality. The atypical data patterns found in some centers and variables are seen as KRIs under a RBM approach. Targeted monitoring or data management queries can be used to confirm whether the KRIs point to an actual issue or not.

  18. WIPP fire hazards and risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-05-01

    The purpose of this analysis was to conduct a fire hazards risk analysis of the Transuranic (TRU) contact-handled waste receipt, emplacement, and disposal activities at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). The technical bases and safety envelope for these operations are defined in the approved WIPP Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR). Although the safety documentation for the initial phase of the Test Program, the dry bin scale tests, has not yet been approved by the Department of Energy (DOE), reviews of the draft to date, including those by the Advisory Committee on Nuclear Facility Safety (ACNFS), have concluded that the dry bin scale tests present no significant risks in excess of those estimated in the approved WIPP FSAR. It is the opinion of the authors and reviewers of this analysis, based on sound engineering judgment and knowledge of the WIPP operations, that a Fire Hazards and Risk Analysis specific to the dry bin scale test program is not warranted prior to first waste receipt. This conclusion is further supported by the risk analysis presented in this document which demonstrates the level of risk to WIPP operations posed by fire to be extremely low. 15 refs., 41 figs., 48 tabs

  19. Centralization Versus Decentralization: A Location Analysis Approach for Librarians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shishko, Robert; Raffel, Jeffrey

    One of the questions that seems to perplex many university and special librarians is whether to move in the direction of centralizing or decentralizing the library's collections and facilities. Presented is a theoretical approach, employing location theory, to the library centralization-decentralization question. Location theory allows the analyst…

  20. Adaptive servo ventilation for central sleep apnoea in heart failure: SERVE-HF on-treatment analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woehrle, Holger; Cowie, Martin R; Eulenburg, Christine; Suling, Anna; Angermann, Christiane; d'Ortho, Marie-Pia; Erdmann, Erland; Levy, Patrick; Simonds, Anita K; Somers, Virend K; Zannad, Faiez; Teschler, Helmut; Wegscheider, Karl

    2017-08-01

    This on-treatment analysis was conducted to facilitate understanding of mechanisms underlying the increased risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in heart failure patients with reduced ejection fraction and predominant central sleep apnoea randomised to adaptive servo ventilation versus the control group in the SERVE-HF trial.Time-dependent on-treatment analyses were conducted (unadjusted and adjusted for predictive covariates). A comprehensive, time-dependent model was developed to correct for asymmetric selection effects (to minimise bias).The comprehensive model showed increased cardiovascular death hazard ratios during adaptive servo ventilation usage periods, slightly lower than those in the SERVE-HF intention-to-treat analysis. Self-selection bias was evident. Patients randomised to adaptive servo ventilation who crossed over to the control group were at higher risk of cardiovascular death than controls, while control patients with crossover to adaptive servo ventilation showed a trend towards lower risk of cardiovascular death than patients randomised to adaptive servo ventilation. Cardiovascular risk did not increase as nightly adaptive servo ventilation usage increased.On-treatment analysis showed similar results to the SERVE-HF intention-to-treat analysis, with an increased risk of cardiovascular death in heart failure with reduced ejection fraction patients with predominant central sleep apnoea treated with adaptive servo ventilation. Bias is inevitable and needs to be taken into account in any kind of on-treatment analysis in positive airway pressure studies. Copyright ©ERS 2017.

  1. Standardised risk analysis as a communication tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pluess, Ch.; Montanarini, M.; Bernauer, M.

    1998-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: several European countries require a risk analysis for the production, storage or transport a dangerous goods. This requirement imposes considerable administrative effort for some sectors of the industry. In order to minimize the effort of such studies, a generic risk analysis for an industrial sector proved to help. Standardised procedures can consequently be derived for efficient performance of the risk investigations. This procedure was successfully established in Switzerland for natural gas transmission lines and fossil fuel storage plants. The development process of the generic risk analysis involved an intense discussion between industry and authorities about methodology of assessment and the criteria of acceptance. This process finally led to scientific consistent modelling tools for risk analysis and to an improved communication from the industry to the authorities and the public. As a recent example, the Holland-Italy natural gas transmission pipeline is demonstrated, where this method was successfully employed. Although this pipeline traverses densely populated areas in Switzerland, using this established communication method, the risk problems could be solved without delaying the planning process. (authors)

  2. Incidence, risk factors and outcome of nosocomial pneumonia in patients with central nervous system infections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gajović Olgica

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. Pneumonia is the most frequent nosocomial infection in intensive care units. The reported frequency varies with definition, the type of hospital or intensive care units and the population of patients. The incidence ranges from 6.8-27%. Objective. The objective of this study was to determine the frequency, risk factors and mortality of nosocomial pneumonia in intensive care patients. Methods. We analyzed retrospectively and prospectively the collected data of 180 patients with central nervous system infections who needed to stay in the intensive care unit for more than 48 hours. This study was conducted from 2003 to 2009 at the Clinical Centre of Kragujevac. Results. During the study period, 54 (30% patients developed nosocomial pneumonia. The time to develop pneumonia was 10±6 days. We found that the following risk factors for the development of nosocomial pneumonia were statistically significant: age, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS score <9, mechanical ventilation, duration of mechanical ventilation, tracheostomy, presence of nasogastric tube and enteral feeding. The most commonly isolated pathogens were Klebsiella-Enterobacter spp. (33.3%, Pseudomonas aeruginosa (24.1%, Acinetobacter spp. (16.6% and Staphylococcus aureus (25.9%. Conclusion. Nosocomial pneumonia is the major cause of morbidity and mortality of patients with central nervous system infections. Patients on mechanical ventilation are particularly at a high risk. The mortality rate of patients with nosocomial pneumonia was 54.4% and it was five times higher than in patients without pneumonia.

  3. Risk factors for central venous catheter-related infections in a neonatal population – systematic review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viviane Rosado

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective: This was a systematic review of the incidence density and risk factors for central venous catheter-related infections in a neonatal population. Data source: The MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane, BDENF, SciELO, and LILACS databases were used without date or language restriction. Studies that analyzed risk factors for bloodstream infections in newborns were identified. Data synthesis: A total of 134 articles were found that met the eligibility criteria. Of these articles, 14 were selected that addressed risk factors for central venous catheter-related infection in neonates. Catheter-related bloodstream infections remain an important complication, as shown by the incidence rates reported in the studies included in this review. The observed risk factors indicate that low birth weight, prematurity, and longer catheter permanence are related to a higher incidence of bloodstream infections. It has been observed that low rates of catheter-related infections, i.e., close to zero, are already a reality in health institutions in developed countries, since they use infection surveillance and control programs. Conclusion: Catheter-related bloodstream infections still show high incidence density rates in developing countries. The authors emphasize the need for further longitudinal studies and the need for better strategies to prevent risk factors, aiming at the reduction of catheter-related infections. Resumo: Objetivo: Trata-se de uma revisão sistemática sobre a densidade de incidência e de fatores de risco para infecção associada a cateter venoso central em população neonatal. Fontes dos dados: Utilizou-se os bancos de dados Medline, Embase, Cochrane, Bdenf, Scielo, Lilacs, sem restrição de data ou de idioma. Identificaram-se os estudos que analisaram fatores de risco para infecção da corrente sanguínea em recém-nascidos. Síntese dos dados: Foram encontrados 134 artigos conforme os critérios de elegibilidade. Destes artigos, foram

  4. Managing weather and climate risks to agriculture in North America, Central America and the Caribbean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harlan D. Shannon

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In recent decades, numerous weather- and climate-related natural disasters have impacted North America, Central America, and the Caribbean, repeatedly demonstrating how vulnerable local agriculture is to extreme episodic events. Given this recent history, and expectations that the frequency and intensity of some episodic events will increase with climate change, it is becoming increasingly important for farmers to proactively manage weather and climate risks to agriculture to protect their livelihoods. Some farmers in this region already apply various strategies to help reduce weather and climate risks and uncertainties, including farming in multiple locations, diversifying crops and varieties, seeking alternative sources of income, and purchasing crop insurance. Such efforts often help farmers maintain a more stable income while also protecting and preserving the productivity of the land. Other farmers, however, have failed to implement basic risk management strategies despite the clear benefits. Reasons for these failures can be attributed to inadequate farmer education and training, a lack of tools to help facilitate the practical application of risk management concepts, and poor communications between the agrometeorological and farming communities. The agrometeorological community can help overcome these obstacles by building upon existing efforts that have successfully educated farmers about weather and climate risks to agriculture and have equipped farmers with the data, tools, and applications necessary to manage these risks. Farmer input is critical to preparing effective educational and training materials and developing user-friendly risk management tools. The agrometeorological community should solicit input from farmers regularly to ensure that farmers are obtaining the information necessary to effectively manage weather and climate risks to agriculture.

  5. Respiratory virus infection and risk of invasive meningococcal disease in central Ontario, Canada.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ashleigh R Tuite

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: In temperate climates, invasive meningococcal disease (IMD incidence tends to coincide with or closely follow peak incidence of influenza virus infection; at a seasonal level, increased influenza activity frequently correlates with increased seasonal risk of IMD. METHODS: We evaluated 240 cases of IMD reported in central Ontario, Canada, from 2000 to 2006. Associations between environmental and virological (influenza A, influenza B and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV exposures and IMD incidence were evaluated using negative binomial regression models controlling for seasonal oscillation. Acute effects of weekly respiratory virus activity on IMD risk were evaluated using a matched-period case-crossover design with random directionality of control selection. Effects were estimated using conditional logistic regression. RESULTS: Multivariable negative binomial regression identified elevated IMD risk with increasing influenza A activity (per 100 case increase, incidence rate ratio = 1.18, 95% confidence interval (CI: 1.06, 1.31. In case-crossover models, increasing weekly influenza A activity was associated with an acute increase in the risk of IMD (per 100 case increase, odds ratio (OR  = 2.03, 95% CI: 1.28 to 3.23. Increasing weekly RSV activity was associated with increased risk of IMD after adjusting for RSV activity in the previous 3 weeks (per 100 case increase, OR = 4.31, 95% CI: 1.14, 16.32. No change in disease risk was seen with increasing influenza B activity. CONCLUSIONS: We have identified an acute effect of influenza A and RSV activity on IMD risk. If confirmed, these finding suggest that influenza vaccination may have the indirect benefit of reducing IMD risk.

  6. Totally implantable central venous access port infections in patients with digestive cancer: incidence and risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Touré, Abdoulaye; Vanhems, Philippe; Lombard-Bohas, Catherine; Cassier, Philippe; Péré-Vergé, Denis; Souquet, Jean-Christophe; Ecochard, René; Chambrier, Cécile

    2012-12-01

    Central venous access port-related bloodstream infection (CVAP-BSI) is associated with morbidity and mortality in patients with cancer. This study examined the incidence rates and risk factors for CVAP-BSI in adult patients with digestive cancer. This prospective observational cohort study was performed from 2007 to 2011 in 2 oncology units of a university hospital. Incidence rate was expressed as number of CVAP-BSI per 1,000 catheter-days. A Cox regression model was used to identify risk factors for CVAP-BSI. A total of 315 patients were included. CVAP-BSI occurred in 41 patients (13.0%). The overall incidence rate was 0.76/1,000 catheter-days. The rate was higher in patients with esophageal cancer (1.28. P = .05) and pancreatic cancer (1.24; P = .007). Risk factors independently associated with CVAP-BSI were World Health Organization performance status between 2 and 4, catheter utilization-days in the previous month, pancreatic cancer, and parenteral nutrition. Coagulase-negative Staphylococci and enterobacteria were the main microorganisms isolated. In adult patients with digestive cancer, pancreatic cancer, cumulative catheter utilization-days, World Health Organization performance status, and parenteral nutrition were identified as independent risk factors for CVAP-BSI. Patients with any of these risk factors could be candidates for preventive strategies. Copyright © 2012 Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology, Inc. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Acceptability of mobile health interventions to reduce inactivity-related health risk in central Pennsylvania adults

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chih-Hsiang Yang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Insufficient physical activity and excessive sedentary behavior elevate health risk. Mobile applications (apps provide one mode for delivering interventions to modify these behaviors and reduce health risk. The purpose of this study was to characterize the need for and acceptability of health behavior interventions among rural adults and evaluate the interest in and the value of app-based interventions in this population. Central Pennsylvania adults with smartphones (N = 258 completed a brief web survey in October–November 2012. Most adults report one or both inactivity-related behavioral risk factors, would use a free app to modify those risk behaviors, and would pay a small amount for that app. Low-cost, efficacious apps to increase physical activity or reduce sedentary behavior should be promoted in public health practice. User experience should be at the forefront of this process to increase value and minimize burden in the service of long-term engagement, behavior change, and health risk reduction.

  8. Spatial distribution of environmental risk associated to a uranium abandoned mine (Central Portugal)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antunes, I. M.; Ribeiro, A. F.

    2012-04-01

    The abandoned uranium mine of Canto do Lagar is located at Arcozelo da Serra, central Portugal. The mine was exploited in an open pit and produced about 12430Kg of uranium oxide (U3O8), between 1987 and 1988. The dominant geological unit is the porphyritic coarse-grained two-mica granite, with biotite>muscovite. The uranium deposit consists of two gaps crushing, parallel to the coarse-grained porphyritic granite, with average direction N30°E, silicified, sericitized and reddish jasperized, with a width of approximately 10 meters. These gaps are accompanied by two thin veins of white quartz, 70°-80° WNW, ferruginous and jasperized with chalcedony, red jasper and opal. These veins are about 6 meters away from each other. They contain secondary U-phosphates phases such as autunite and torbernite. Rejected materials (1000000ton) were deposited on two dumps and a lake was formed in the open pit. To assess the environmental risk of the abandoned uranium mine of Canto do Lagar, were collected and analysed 70 samples on stream sediments, soils and mine tailings materials. The relation between samples composition were tested using the Principal Components Analysis (PCA) (multivariate analysis) and spatial distribution using Kriging Indicator. The spatial distribution of stream sediments shows that the probability of expression for principal component 1 (explaining Y, Zr, Nb, La, Ce, Pr, Nd, Sm, Eu, Gd, Tb, Dy, Ho, Er, Tm, Yb, Hf, Th and U contents), decreases along SE-NW direction. This component is explained by the samples located inside mine influence. The probability of expression for principal component 2 (explaining Be, Na, Al, Si, P, K, Ca, Ti, Mn, Fe, Co, Ni, Cu, As, Rb, Sr, Mo, Cs, Ba, Tl and Bi contents), increases to middle stream line. This component is explained by the samples located outside mine influence. The spatial distribution of soils, shows that the probability of expression for principal component 1 (explaining Mg, P, Ca, Ge, Sr, Y, Zr, La, Ce, Pr

  9. Risk analysis of industrial plants operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, Philippe

    1989-12-01

    This study examines the possibilities of systematic technology risk analysis in view of territorial management (city, urban community, region), including chronic and accidental risks. The objective was to relate this evaluation with those done for permanent water and air pollution. Risk management for pollution are done for a long time. A number of studies were done in urban communities and regions both for air and water pollution. The second objective is related to management of industrial risks: nuclear, petrochemical, transport of hazardous material, pipelines, etc. At the beginning, three possibilities of effects are taken into account: human health, economic aspect and water, and possibilities of evaluation are identified. Elements of risk identification are presented for quantification of results [fr

  10. Risk analysis of alternative energy sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kazmer, D.R.

    1982-01-01

    The author explores two points raised by Miller Spangler in a January 1981 issue: public perception of risks involving nuclear power plants relative to those of conventional plants and criteria for evaluating the way risk analyses are made. On the first point, he concludes that translating public attitudes into the experts' language of probability and risk could provide better information and understanding of both the attitudes and the risks. Viewing risk analysis methodologies as filters which help to test historical change, he suggests that the lack of information favors a lay jury approach for energy decisions. Spangler responds that Congress is an example of lay decision making, but that a lay jury, given public disinterest and polarization, would probably not improve social justice on the nuclear issue. 5 references, 4 figures

  11. LANDSAFE: LANDING SITE RISK ANALYSIS SOFTWARE FRAMEWORK

    OpenAIRE

    Schmidt, Ralph; Bostelmann, Jonas; Cornet, Yves; Heipke, Christian; Philippe, Christian; Poncelet, Nadia; de Rosa, Diego; Vandeloise, Yannick

    2012-01-01

    The European Space Agency (ESA) is planning a Lunar Lander mission in the 2018 timeframe that will demonstrate precise soft landing at the polar regions of the Moon. To ensure a safe and successful landing a careful risk analysis has to be carried out. This is comprised of identifying favorable target areas and evaluating the surface conditions in these areas. Features like craters, boulders, steep slopes, rough surfaces and shadow areas have to be identified in order to assess the risk assoc...

  12. Impact Analysis for Risks in Informatics Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Baicu, Floarea; Baches, Maria Alexandra

    2013-01-01

    In this paper are presented methods of impact analysis on informatics system security accidents, qualitative and quantitative methods, starting with risk and informational system security definitions. It is presented the relationship between the risks of exploiting vulnerabilities of security system, security level of these informatics systems, probability of exploiting the weak points subject to financial losses of a company, respectively impact of a security accident on the company. Herewit...

  13. Mother-daughter correlation of central obesity and other noncommunicable disease risk factors: Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heidari, Zahra; Hosseinpanah, Farhad; Barzin, Maryam; Safarkhani, Maryam; Azizi, Fereidoun

    2015-03-01

    This study aimed to investigate the mother-daughter correlation for central obesity and other noncommunicable disease risk factors. The authors used metabolic and anthropometric data from the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study, enrolling 1041 mother-daughter pairs for the current study. Three age strata were defined: 3 to 9 years for childhood (146 mother-daughter pairs), 10 to 17 years for adolescence (395 mother-daughter pairs), and 18 to 25 years for early adulthood (500 mother-daughter pairs). Familial associations for central obesity and other noncommunicable disease risk factors were assessed. The prevalence of central obesity was 44.7% in mothers and 11.2% in daughters (6.2% in the 3-9, 19.2% in the 10-17, and 6.4% in the 18-25 years groups). Mothers with central obesity were more likely than nonobese mothers to have daughters with central obesity (10.5% and 1.7%, respectively; P = .0001). Central obesity indices among daughters were positively correlated with those of their mothers in all 3 age strata. Correlations for other noncommunicable disease risk factors were analyzed before and after adjusting the risk factor levels for mothers' and daughters' waist circumferences (WCs) within each group to determine whether risk factor correlations were, in part, a result of the central obesity correlations. After the non-communicable disease risk factor levels of participants were adjusted for their WCs, the mother-daughter correlations remained significant. The consistent association of central obesity between mothers and daughters may indicate the key role that could be played by the mother in the primary prevention of central obesity, particularly in high-risk families. © 2012 APJPH.

  14. Dynamic risk analysis using bow-tie approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khakzad, Nima; Khan, Faisal; Amyotte, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Accident probability estimation is a common and central step to all quantitative risk assessment methods. Among many techniques available, bow-tie model (BT) is very popular because it represent the accident scenario altogether including causes and consequences. However, it suffers a static structure limiting its application in real-time monitoring and probability updating which are key factors in dynamic risk analysis. The present work is focused on using BT approach in a dynamic environment in which the occurrence probability of accident consequences changes. In this method, on one hand, failure probability of primary events of BT, leading to the top event, are developed using physical reliability models, and constantly revised as physical parameters (e.g., pressure, velocity, dimension, etc) change. And, on the other hand, the failure probability of safety barriers of the BT are periodically updated using Bayes’ theorem as new information becomes available over time. Finally, the resulting, updated BT is used to estimate the posterior probability of the consequences which in turn results in an updated risk profile. - Highlights: ► A methodology is proposed to make bow-tie method adapted for dynamic risk analysis. ► Physical reliability models are used to revise the top event. ► Bayes’ theorem is used to update the probability of safety barriers. ► The number of accidents in sequential time intervals is used to form likelihood function. ► The risk profile is updated for varying physical parameters and for different times.

  15. Chances and risks in the future E and P of Eastern-Central Europe (ECE)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dobrova, H.; Kolly, E. [IHS Energy, Geneva (Switzerland); Schmitz, U. [LO and G Consultants, Essen (Germany)

    2006-03-15

    Eastern-Central Europe is a mature region in terms of hydrocarbon exploration and production. Its oil and gas reserves and production are in decline. Reserves replacement requires the identification of new opportunities. Several opportunities are being reviewed for their volume potential and economic viability and, in particular, for their chances and risks. Adequate opportunities in this respect are exploration for hydrocarbons in the region's thrust belts, the drilling of offshore plays of the Black Sea, and the delivery of smaller gas reserves to spot markets and/or independent power plants. The latter opportunities require the implementation of new approaches. As to the exploration-driven opportunities, risk lowering will obviously be achieved by the application of 3D seismic. Several of the identified opportunities will require substantial financial exposure. (orig.)

  16. Centralized processing of contact-handled TRU waste feasibility analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1986-12-01

    This report presents work for the feasibility study of central processing of contact-handled TRU waste. Discussion of scenarios, transportation options, summary of cost estimates, and institutional issues are a few of the subjects discussed

  17. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  18. Springtime Flood Risk Reduction in Rural Arctic: A Comparative Study of Interior Alaska, United States and Central Yakutia, Russia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yekaterina Y. Kontar

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Every spring, riverine communities throughout the Arctic face flood risk. As the river ice begins to thaw and break up, ice jams—accumulation of chunks and sheets of ice in the river channel, force melt water and ice floes to back up for dozens of kilometers and flood vulnerable communities upstream. Via a comparative analysis between two flood-prone communities in Alaska and Yakutia (Siberia, this study examines key components of flood risk—hazards, exposure, and vulnerability, and existing practices in flood risk reduction in rural Arctic. The research sites are two rural communities—Galena (Yukon River and Edeytsy (Lena River, which sustained major ice-jam floods in May 2013. The data was acquired through a combination of direct observations on site, review of documents and archives, focus group discussions, and surveys. Five focus groups with US and Russian representatives from disaster management agencies revealed a few similar patterns as well as significant differences in flood risk reduction strategies. The main differences included higher reliance on mechanical and short-term ice jam and flood mitigation efforts (e.g., ice-jam demolition in the Russian Arctic, and lack of a centralized flood management model in the US. Surveys conducted among population at risk during the site visits to Edeytsy (November 2015 and Galena (March 2016 revealed higher satisfaction levels with the existing flood risk reduction efforts among Edeytsy residents. Survey respondents in Galena indicated the lack of ice jam removal and other flood prevention measures as the key drawback in the existing flood management. Historical analysis, conducted via the disaster Pressure and Release (PAR model, revealed that springtime flood risk in both regions results from complex interactions among a series of natural processes that generate conditions of hazard, and human actions that generate conditions of communities’ exposure and vulnerability. The analysis

  19. Risk factors for central line-associated bloodstream infection in pediatric oncology patients with a totally implantable venous access port: A cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viana Taveira, Michelle Ribeiro; Lima, Luciana Santana; de Araújo, Cláudia Corrêa; de Mello, Maria Júlia Gonçalves

    2017-02-01

    Totally implantable venous access ports (TIVAPs) are used for prolonged central venous access, allowing the infusion of chemotherapy and other fluids and improving the quality of life of children with cancer. TIVAPs were developed to reduce the infection rates associated with central venous catheters; however, infectious events remain common and have not been fully investigated in pediatric oncology patients. A retrospective cohort was formed to investigate risk factors for central line-associated bloodstream infection (CLABSI) in pediatric cancer patients. Sociodemographic, clinical, and TIVAP insertion-related variables were evaluated, with the endpoint being the first CLABSI. A Kaplan-Meier analysis was performed to determine CLABSI-free catheter survival. Overall, 188 children were evaluated over 77,541 catheter days, with 94 being diagnosed with CLABSI (50%). Although coagulase-negative staphylococci were the pathogens most commonly isolated, Gram-negative microorganisms (46.8%) were also prevalent. In the multivariate analysis, factors that increased the risk for CLABSI were TIVAP insertion prior to chemotherapy (risk ratio [RR] = 1.56; P Risk factors for CLABSI in pediatric cancer patients with a TIVAP may be related to the severity of the child's condition at catheter insertion. Insertion of the catheter before chemotherapy and unfavorable conditions such as malnutrition and bone marrow aplasia can increase the risk of CLABSI. Protocols must be revised and surveillance increased over the first 10 weeks of treatment. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  20. Circulating serovars of Leptospira in cart horses of central and southern Ethiopia and associated risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsegay, K; Potts, A D; Aklilu, N; Lötter, C; Gummow, B

    2016-03-01

    Little work has been done on diseases of horses in Ethiopia or tropical regions of the world. Yet, Ethiopia has the largest horse population in Africa and their horses play a pivotal role in their economy as traction animals. A serological and questionnaire survey was therefore conducted to determine the circulating serovars of Leptospira and their association with potential risk factors in the cart horse population of Central and Southern Ethiopia. A total of 184 out of 418 cart horses from 13 districts had antibody titres of 1:100 or greater to at least one of 16 serovars of Leptospira species in Central and Southern Ethiopian horses. A significantly higher seropositivity (62.1%) was noted in horses from the highland agroecology followed by midland (44.4%) and lowland (39.8%). Serovar Bratislava (34.5%) was the predominant serovar followed by serovars Djasiman (9.8%), Topaz (5.98%) and Pomona (5.3%). Age and location proved to be associated with seropositive horses with older horses being more commonly affected and the districts of Ziway (Batu) (Apparent Prevalence (AP)=65.5%), Shashemene (AP=48.3%) and Sebeta (AP=41.4%) having the highest prevalence. Multivariable logistic regression found risk factors significantly associated with Leptospira seropositive horses were drinking river water (OR=2.8) and horses 7-12 years old (OR=5) and risk factors specifically associated with serovar Bratislava seropositive horses were drinking river water (OR=2.5), horses ≥13 years (OR=3.5) and the presence of dogs in adjacent neighbouring properties (OR=0.3). Dogs had a protective effect against seropositivity to serovars Bratislava and Djasiman, which may be due to their ability to control rodents. The high seroprevalence confirm that leptospirosis is endemic among horses of Central and Southern Ethiopia. The predominance of serovar Bratislava supports the idea that serovar Bratislava may be adapted to and maintained by the horse population of Central and Southern Ethiopia

  1. Assessing patient risk of central line-associated bacteremia via machine learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beeler, Cole; Dbeibo, Lana; Kelley, Kristen; Thatcher, Levi; Webb, Douglas; Bah, Amadou; Monahan, Patrick; Fowler, Nicole R; Nicol, Spencer; Judy-Malcolm, Alisa; Azar, Jose

    2018-04-13

    Central line-associated bloodstream infections (CLABSIs) contribute to increased morbidity, length of hospital stay, and cost. Despite progress in understanding the risk factors, there remains a need to accurately predict the risk of CLABSIs and, in real time, prevent them from occurring. A predictive model was developed using retrospective data from a large academic healthcare system. Models were developed with machine learning via construction of random forests using validated input variables. Fifteen variables accounted for the most significant effect on CLABSI prediction based on a retrospective study of 70,218 unique patient encounters between January 1, 2013, and May 31, 2016. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the best-performing model was 0.82 in production. This model has multiple applications for resource allocation for CLABSI prevention, including serving as a tool to target patients at highest risk for potentially cost-effective but otherwise time-limited interventions. Machine learning can be used to develop accurate models to predict the risk of CLABSI in real time prior to the development of infection. Copyright © 2018 Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Risk Factors Related to Peripherally Inserted Central Venous Catheter Nonselective Removal in Neonates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaohe Yu

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available We aimed to investigate the incidence and risk factors associated with nonselective removal of peripherally inserted central venous catheter (PICC in neonates. In this prospective cohort study, neonates who underwent PICC placement at neonatal intensive care units (NICUs in China from October 2012 to November 2015 were included. The patient demographics, catheter characteristics, catheter duration, PICC insertion site, indication for PICC insertion, infuscate composition, PICC tip location, and catheter complications were recorded in a computerized database. Risk factors for nonselective removal were analyzed. A total of 497 PICCs were placed in 496 neonates. Nonselective removal occurred in 9.3% of PICCs during 10,540 catheter-days (4.6 nonselective removals per 1,000 catheter-days. These included occlusion (3%, infection (1.4%, leakage (2.0%, phlebitis (0.6%, displacement (1%, pleural effusion(0.6%, and breaks (0.6%. Noncentral tip position was independently associated with an increased risk of nonselective removal (odds ratio 2.621; 95% confidence interval, 1.258-5.461 after adjusting for gestational age, sex, birth weight, and PICC dwell time. No significant differences in the rate of complications occurred between silastic and polyurethane PICC or different insertion sites. Noncentral PICC tip position was the only independent risk factor for nonselective removal of PICC.

  3. SYNERGISTIC EFFECTS OF TOTAL QUALITY MANAGEMENT AND OPERATIONAL RISK MANAGEMENT IN CENTRAL BANKS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radoica Luburić

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper focuses on two very important and current approaches to management: Total Quality Management (TQM and Operational Risk Management (ORM. As a paradigm of business success, TQM provides the key assumptions for survival, development and success of an organisation, regardless of any limitations whatsoever. ORM, on the other hand, is predetermined to be an irreplaceable managerial tool that enables organisations to survive in any environment. In times of accelerated political, economic and technological changes, frequent natural disasters, acts of terrorism and other external events, a successful risk management has been gaining importance and becomes one of the key competitive advantages of an organisation. The ultimate objective is to make TQM and ORM, as two rather compatible and complementary approaches to risk management, harmonized, efficient and functional in order to get their synergistic effects in an organisation in full swing and practice. Various organisations, and thus central banks as conservative institutions, have an innovative opportunity to timely minimize their operational risk through preventive, comprehensive and synergistic operation of TQM and ORM and thus significantly contribute to improving their business performance.

  4. Durable decision-making is central to the control of risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zebroski, E.L.

    1990-01-01

    In several capacities the author has promoted the importance of risk analysis techniques as a rational path to the improved assurance of safety. The interest in decisions arose from the persistent observation of only moderate or minor impacts or benefits to practical operations from the availability of wall documented risk analysis studies for many nuclear units. The complexity and number of variables in decisions on matters of safety of large scale operations defies ordinary intuitive decision making. The structured decision process is not a panacea, but is often the practical tool of choise for managing complexity in an orderly way. Typical basic sources for decision techniques are listed in references. (orig.)

  5. Prevalence and Risk Factors of Central Venous Stenosis among Prevalent Hemodialysis Patients, a Single Center Experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osman, Osama O; El-Magzoub, Abdul-Rahman A; Elamin, Sarra

    2014-01-01

    Central vein stenosis (CVS) is a common complication of central venous catheter (CVC) insertion. In this study we evaluated the prevalence and risk factors of CVS among hemodialysis (HD) patients in a single center in Sudan, using Doppler ultrasound as a screening tool. The study included 106 prevalent HD patients. For every patient, we performed Duplex Doppler for the right and left jugular, subclavian and femoral veins. A patient was considered to have hemodynamically significant stenosis if the pre-stenosis to the post-stenosis velocities ratio was ≥ 2.5 or they had complete vein occlusion. Overall, 28.3% of patients had Doppler detected CVS, including 25.5% with hemodynamically significant stenosis and 2.8% with compromised flow. The prevalence of CVS was 68.4% among symptomatic patients compared to 19.5% in asymptomatic patients. The prevalence of CVS among patients with history of 0-1, 2-3 and ≥ 4 central venous catheters was 3.4%, 29.4% and 53.8% respectively (p=0.00). CVS was not more common in patients with history of previous/current jugular or femoral vein catheterization compared to no catheter placement in these veins (28.3% vs 28.6% and 35% vs 26.7% respectively; p >0.1). However, CVS was significantly more common in patients with previous/ current subclavian vein catheterization compared to no catheter placement in this vein (47.8% vs 22.9%, p = 0.02). CVS is highly prevalent among studied HD patients, particularly in the presence of suggestive clinical signs. The number of HD catheter placements and subclavian vein utilization for dialysis access impose a significantly higher risk of CVS.

  6. New algorithm for risk analysis in radiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Torres, Antonio; Montes de Oca, Joe

    2015-01-01

    Risk analyses applied to radiotherapy treatments have become an undeniable necessity, considering the dangers generated by the combination of using powerful radiation fields on patients and the occurrence of human errors and equipment failures during these treatments. The technique par excellence to execute these analyses has been the risk matrix. This paper presents the development of a new algorithm to execute the task with wide graphic and analytic potentialities, thus transforming it into a very useful option for risk monitoring and the optimization of quality assurance. The system SECURE- MR, which is the basic software of this algorithm, has been successfully used in risk analysis regarding different kinds of radiotherapies. Compared to previous methods, It offers new possibilities of analysis considering risk controlling factors as the robustness of reducers of initiators frequency and its consequences. Their analytic capacities and graphs allow novel developments to classify risk contributing factors, to represent information processes as well as accidental sequences. The paper shows the application of the proposed system to a generic process of radiotherapy treatment using a lineal accelerator. (author)

  7. Current drinking and health-risk behaviors among male high school students in central Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pichainarong Natchaporn

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Alcohol drinking is frequently related to behavioral problems, which lead to a number of negative consequences. This study was to evaluate the characteristics of male high school students who drink, the drinking patterns among them, and the associations between current drinking and other health risk behaviors which focused on personal safety, violence-related behaviors, suicide and sexual behaviors. Method A cross-sectional study was conducted to explore current alcohol drinking and health-risk behaviors among male high school students in central Thailand. Five thousand one hundred and eighty four male students were classified into 2 groups according to drinking in the previous 30 days (yes = 631, no = 4,553. Data were collected by self-administered, anonymous questionnaire which consisted of 3 parts: socio-demographic factors, health-risk behaviors and alcohol drinking behavior during the past year from December 2007 to February 2008. Results The results showed that the percent of current drinking was 12.17. Most of them were 15-17 years (50.21%. Socio-demographic factors such as age, educational level, residence, cohabitants, grade point average (GPA, having a part time job and having family members with alcohol/drug problems were significantly associated with alcohol drinking (p Conclusions An increased risk of health-risk behaviors, including driving vehicles after drinking, violence-related behaviors, sad feelings and attempted suicide, and sexual behaviors was higher among drinking students that led to significant health problems. Effective intervention strategies (such as a campaign mentioning the adverse health effects and social consequences to the risk groups, and encouraging parental and community efforts to prevent drinking among adolescents should be implemented to prevent underage drinking and adverse consequences.

  8. The watchdog role of risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reijen, G. van; Vinck, W.

    1983-01-01

    The reason why the risks of large-scale technology attract more attention lies in the fact that accidents would have more disastrous results and in the fact that it is probably more attractive to study the risks of some large projects than to do the same for a greater number of smaller projects. Within this presentation there will be some opening remarks on the Role of the Commission of the European Community with regard to accident prevention. The development of the concept of quantitative risks is dealt with. This development leads to a combinded of deterministic and probabilistic methods. The presentation concludes with some critical remarks on quantitative risk analysis and its use. (orig./HP) [de

  9. Implementing the Bayesian paradigm in risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aven, T.; Kvaloey, J.T.

    2002-01-01

    The Bayesian paradigm comprises a unified and consistent framework for analyzing and expressing risk. Yet, we see rather few examples of applications where the full Bayesian setting has been adopted with specifications of priors of unknown parameters. In this paper, we discuss some of the practical challenges of implementing Bayesian thinking and methods in risk analysis, emphasizing the introduction of probability models and parameters and associated uncertainty assessments. We conclude that there is a need for a pragmatic view in order to 'successfully' apply the Bayesian approach, such that we can do the assignments of some of the probabilities without adopting the somewhat sophisticated procedure of specifying prior distributions of parameters. A simple risk analysis example is presented to illustrate ideas

  10. Game Theoretic Risk Analysis of Security Threats

    CERN Document Server

    Bier, Vicki M

    2008-01-01

    Introduces reliability and risk analysis in the face of threats by intelligent agents. This book covers applications to networks, including problems in both telecommunications and transportation. It provides a set of tools for applying game theory TO reliability problems in the presence of intentional, intelligent threats

  11. Economic impact assessment in pest risk analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Soliman, T.A.A.; Mourits, M.C.M.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.; Werf, van der W.

    2010-01-01

    According to international treaties, phytosanitary measures against introduction and spread of invasive plant pests must be justified by a science-based pest risk analysis (PRA). Part of the PRA consists of an assessment of potential economic consequences. This paper evaluates the main available

  12. Central receiver power plant: an environmental, ecological, and socioeconomic analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Davison, M.; Grether, D.

    1977-06-01

    The technical details of the central receiver design are reviewed. Socio-economic questions are considered including: market penetration, air industrial sector model, demands on industry, employment, effluents associated with manufacture of components, strains due to intensive construction, water requirements, and land requirements. The ecological effects in the vicinity of the central receiver plant site are dealt with, with emphasis on effects on land surface, mammals, and reptiles and amphibians. Climatological considerations are reviewed including: desert types, effects of surface albedo modification, effects of aerosols, effects on evaporation rates, the heliostat canopy, effects on turbulent transfer rates, effects on the wind profile, a model of convection about a central receiver plant, and a global scenario. Drawings of heliostat and plant design are included in appendices. (MHR)

  13. The Analysis on Leading industries in Central Java Province

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Setyani Irmawati

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this research is for identifying the types of industriesthat become leading industries in Central Java Province. The methods, used are LQ (SLQ and DLQ and Shift Share. The result of this research shows that the the leading industries in Central Java Province are beverage industry, tobacco processing industry, textile industry, apparel industry, wood industry, printing industry, furniture industry and other processing industries.In the future, the development of the industry should not only focus on the leading industries  but also onnon-leading industries, so that the non leading industries will not be left behind.

  14. Occupational and Cost Risk : Critical Analysis of Monetization Policy Risk Approach to the Spanish Law Standards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Antônio César Villatore

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The problem that surrounds the issue of occupational risk is a phenomenon that plagues every society, because the work is a central element and gives force to the economy. In this sense, the exposure of workers to harmful activities that may cause damage to your health and physical and mental integrity, based on the monetization policy of risk adopted by the Brazilian legal system, can import costs to the workers, employers, the state and society. Thus, the present study seeks, from the labor law analysis and the use of concepts of Economic Analysis of Law, attest that the social costs caused by worker exposure to risk is, fallaciously shown, in a short-term smaller than that of prevention, but in the long run can import the burden on all parties of the employment relationship as well as the State and society, being necessary to use economic and legal measures for changing the monetization of risk policy, as in alien systems, as the Spanish Law analyzed.

  15. Elemental Analysis of Galium incanum SM subsp Centrale Ehrend ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    . centrale Ehrend. Methods: The air-dried aerial parts of the plant material were used and its water extract (2 % w/v infusion) was analysed for trace elements using x-ray fluorescence (XRF ) spectrometry. Results: The aqueous extract depicted ...

  16. Analytic central path, sensitivity analysis and parametric linear programming

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A.G. Holder; J.F. Sturm; S. Zhang (Shuzhong)

    1998-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper we consider properties of the central path and the analytic center of the optimal face in the context of parametric linear programming. We first show that if the right-hand side vector of a standard linear program is perturbed, then the analytic center of the optimal face

  17. An evaluation of centrality measures used in cluster analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engström, Christopher; Silvestrov, Sergei

    2014-12-01

    Clustering of data into groups of similar objects plays an important part when analysing many types of data, especially when the datasets are large as they often are in for example bioinformatics, social networks and computational linguistics. Many clustering algorithms such as K-means and some types of hierarchical clustering need a number of centroids representing the 'center' of the clusters. The choice of centroids for the initial clusters often plays an important role in the quality of the clusters. Since a data point with a high centrality supposedly lies close to the 'center' of some cluster, this can be used to assign centroids rather than through some other method such as picking them at random. Some work have been done to evaluate the use of centrality measures such as degree, betweenness and eigenvector centrality in clustering algorithms. The aim of this article is to compare and evaluate the usefulness of a number of common centrality measures such as the above mentioned and others such as PageRank and related measures.

  18. Supplemental Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment - Hydrotreater

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lowry, Peter P. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wagner, Katie A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-04-01

    A supplemental hazard analysis was conducted and quantitative risk assessment performed in response to an independent review comment received by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) from the U.S. Department of Energy Pacific Northwest Field Office (PNSO) against the Hydrotreater/Distillation Column Hazard Analysis Report issued in April 2013. The supplemental analysis used the hazardous conditions documented by the previous April 2013 report as a basis. The conditions were screened and grouped for the purpose of identifying whether additional prudent, practical hazard controls could be identified, using a quantitative risk evaluation to assess the adequacy of the controls and establish a lower level of concern for the likelihood of potential serious accidents. Calculations were performed to support conclusions where necessary.

  19. Multivariate survival analysis and competing risks

    CERN Document Server

    Crowder, Martin J

    2012-01-01

    Multivariate Survival Analysis and Competing Risks introduces univariate survival analysis and extends it to the multivariate case. It covers competing risks and counting processes and provides many real-world examples, exercises, and R code. The text discusses survival data, survival distributions, frailty models, parametric methods, multivariate data and distributions, copulas, continuous failure, parametric likelihood inference, and non- and semi-parametric methods. There are many books covering survival analysis, but very few that cover the multivariate case in any depth. Written for a graduate-level audience in statistics/biostatistics, this book includes practical exercises and R code for the examples. The author is renowned for his clear writing style, and this book continues that trend. It is an excellent reference for graduate students and researchers looking for grounding in this burgeoning field of research.

  20. [Central nervous system relapse in diffuse large B cell lymphoma: Risk factors].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sancho, Juan-Manuel; Ribera, Josep-Maria

    2016-01-15

    Central nervous system (CNS) involvement by lymphoma is a complication associated, almost invariably, with a poor prognosis. The knowledge of the risk factors for CNS relapse is important to determine which patients could benefit from prophylaxis. Thus, patients with very aggressive lymphomas (such as lymphoblastic lymphoma or Burkitt's lymphoma) must systematically receive CNS prophylaxis due to a high CNS relapse rate (25-30%), while in patients with indolent lymphoma (such as follicular lymphoma or marginal lymphoma) prophylaxis is unnecessary. However, the question about CNS prophylaxis in patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL), the most common type of lymphoma, remains controversial. The information available is extensive, mainly based on retrospective and heterogeneous studies. There seems that immunochemotherapy based on rituximab reduces the CNS relapse rate. On the other hand, patients with increased serum lactate dehydrogenase plus more than one extranodal involvement seem to have a higher risk of CNS relapse, but a prophylaxis strategy based only on the presence of these 2 factors does not prevent all CNS relapses. Patients with involvement of testes or breast have high risk of CNS relapse and prophylaxis is mandatory. Finally, CNS prophylaxis could be considered in patients with DLBCL and renal or epidural space involvement, as well as in those cases with MYC rearrangements, although additional studies are necessary. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  1. Risk and safety analysis of nuclear systems

    CERN Document Server

    Lee, John C

    2011-01-01

    The book has been developed in conjunction with NERS 462, a course offered every year to seniors and graduate students in the University of Michigan NERS program. The first half of the book covers the principles of risk analysis, the techniques used to develop and update a reliability data base, the reliability of multi-component systems, Markov methods used to analyze the unavailability of systems with repairs, fault trees and event trees used in probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs), and failure modes of systems. All of this material is general enough that it could be used in non-nuclear a

  2. Mapping the geogenic radon potential: methodology and spatial analysis for central Hungary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szabó, Katalin Zsuzsanna; Jordan, Gyozo; Horváth, Ákos; Szabó, Csaba

    2014-01-01

    A detailed geogenic radon potential (GRP) mapping based on field soil gas radon and soil gas permeability measurements was carried out in this study. A conventional continuous variable approach was used in this study for GRP determination and to test its applicability to the selected area of Hungary. Spatial pattern of soil gas radon concentration, soil permeability and GRP and the relationship between geological formations and these parameters were studied by performing detailed spatial analysis. Exploratory data analysis revealed that higher soil gas radon activity concentration and GRP characterizes the mountains and hills than the plains. The highest values were found in the proluvial–deluvial sediments, rock debris on the downhill slopes eroded from hills. Among the Quaternary sediments, which characterize the study area, the fluvial sediment has the highest values, which are also located in the hilly areas. The lowest values were found in the plain areas covered by drift sand, fluvioeolic sand, fluvial sand and loess. As a conclusion, radon is related to the sediment cycle in the study area. A geogenic radon risk map was created, which assists human health risk assessment and risk reduction since it indicates the potential of the source of indoor radon. The map shows that low and medium geogenic radon potential characterizes the study area in central Hungary. High risk occurs only locally. The results reveal that Quaternary sediments are inhomogeneous from a radon point of view, fluvial sediment has medium GRP, whereas the other rock formations such as drift sand, fluioeolic sand, fluvial sand and loess, found in the study area, have low GRP. - Highlights: • First geogenic radon potential map in Hungary. • Low and medium GRP characterizes the study area (Middle Hungary). • Mainly quaternary sediments characterizes the study area. • Radon is related to the erosion and deposition of the sediment cycle

  3. COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS BETWEEN CENTRALIZED AND STATE-WISE TOURISM CAMPAIGNS IN INDIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sunaina AHUJA

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose is to distinguish the initiatives taken by the state authorities and Central authorities to promote tourism in India. Gaps in the centralized promotional campaign, "Incredible India" are identified in this study. The methodology includes collection of secondary data and discursive analysis. Information relevance, Promotion strategy, and Key events and places were used for the comparative analysis for the purposes of the research paper. Above mentioned three factors need to be added to the centralized campaign, to give a holistic picture of India. The paper is unique as it is the first time that identification of gaps in the centralized campaign is done.

  4. Peripheral Edema, Central Venous Pressure, and Risk of AKI in Critical Illness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Kenneth P.; Cavender, Susan; Lee, Joon; Feng, Mengling; Mark, Roger G.; Celi, Leo Anthony; Mukamal, Kenneth J.

    2016-01-01

    Background and objectives Although venous congestion has been linked to renal dysfunction in heart failure, its significance in a broader context has not been investigated. Design, setting, participants, & measurements Using an inception cohort of 12,778 critically ill adult patients admitted to an urban tertiary medical center between 2001 and 2008, we examined whether the presence of peripheral edema on admission physical examination was associated with an increased risk of AKI within the first 7 days of critical illness. In addition, in those with admission central venous pressure (CVP) measurements, we examined the association of CVPs with subsequent AKI. AKI was defined using the Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes criteria. Results Of the 18% (n=2338) of patients with peripheral edema on admission, 27% (n=631) developed AKI, compared with 16% (n=1713) of those without peripheral edema. In a model that included adjustment for comorbidities, severity of illness, and the presence of pulmonary edema, peripheral edema was associated with a 30% higher risk of AKI (95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.15 to 1.46; Pedema was not significantly related to risk. Peripheral edema was also associated with a 13% higher adjusted risk of a higher AKI stage (95% CI, 1.07 to 1.20; Pedema were associated with 34% (95% CI, 1.10 to 1.65), 17% (95% CI, 0.96 to 1.14), 47% (95% CI, 1.18 to 1.83), and 57% (95% CI, 1.07 to 2.31) higher adjusted risk of AKI, respectively, compared with edema-free patients. In the 4761 patients with admission CVP measurements, each 1 cm H2O higher CVP was associated with a 2% higher adjusted risk of AKI (95% CI, 1.00 to 1.03; P=0.02). Conclusions Venous congestion, as manifested as either peripheral edema or increased CVP, is directly associated with AKI in critically ill patients. Whether treatment of venous congestion with diuretics can modify this risk will require further study. PMID:26787777

  5. Intrinsic and specific vulnerability of groundwater in central Spain: the risk of nitrate pollution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez-Bastida, Juan J.; Arauzo, Mercedes; Valladolid, Maria

    2010-05-01

    The intrinsic vulnerability of groundwater in the Comunidad de Madrid (central Spain) was evaluated using the DRASTIC and GOD indexes. Groundwater vulnerability to nitrate pollution was also assessed using the composite DRASTIC (CD) and nitrate vulnerability (NV) indexes. The utility of these methods was tested by analyzing the spatial distribution of nitrate concentrations in the different aquifers located in the study area: the Tertiary Detrital Aquifer, the Moor Limestone Aquifer, the Cretaceous Limestone Aquifer and the Quaternary Aquifer. Vulnerability maps based on these four indexes showed very similar results, identifying the Quaternary Aquifer and the lower sub-unit of the Moor Limestone Aquifer as deposits subjected to a high risk of nitrate pollution due to intensive agriculture. As far as the spatial distribution of groundwater nitrate concentrations is concerned, the NV index showed the greatest statistical significance ( p Comunidad de Madrid, in line with European Union Directive 91/676/EEC.

  6. Prevalence and risk factors for trachoma in central and southern Malawi.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khumbo Kalua

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Trachoma, one of the neglected tropical diseases is suspected to be endemic in Malawi. OBJECTIVES: To determine the prevalence of trachoma and associated risk factors in central and southern Malawi. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A population based survey conducted in randomly selected clusters in Chikwawa district (population 438,895, southern Malawi and Mchinji district (population 456,558, central Malawi. Children aged 1-9 years and adults aged 15 and above were assessed for clinical signs of trachoma. In total, 1010 households in Chikwawa and 1016 households in Mchinji districts were enumerated within 108 clusters (54 clusters in each district. A total of 6,792 persons were examined for ocular signs of trachoma. The prevalence of trachomatous inflammation, follicular (TF among children aged 1-9 years was 13.6% (CI 11.6-15.6 in Chikwawa and 21.7% (CI 19.5-23.9 in Mchinji districts respectively. The prevalence of trachoma trichiasis (TT in women and men aged 15 years and above was 0.6% (CI 0.2-0.9 in Chikwawa and 0.3% (CI 0.04-0.6 in Mchinji respectively. The presence of a dirty face was significantly associated with trachoma follicular (TF in both Chikwawa and Mchinji districts (P10%, and warrants the trachoma SAFE control strategy to be undertaken in Chikwawa and Mchinji districts.

  7. Risk analysis for earth dam overtopping

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mo Chongxun

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a model of overtopping risk under the joint effects of floods and wind waves, which is based on risk analysis theory and takes into account the uncertainties of floods, wind waves, reservoir capacity and discharge capacity of the spillway, is proposed and applied to the Chengbihe Reservoir in Baise City in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. The simulated results indicate that the flood control limiting level can be raised by 0.40 m under the condition that the reservoir overtopping risk is controlled within a mean variance of 5×10−6. As a result, the reservoir storage will increase to 16 million m3 and electrical energy generation and other functions of the reservoir will also increase greatly.

  8. Investment appraisal using quantitative risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johansson, Henrik

    2002-07-01

    Investment appraisal concerned with investments in fire safety systems is discussed. Particular attention is directed at evaluating, in terms of the Bayesian decision theory, the risk reduction that investment in a fire safety system involves. It is shown how the monetary value of the change from a building design without any specific fire protection system to one including such a system can be estimated by use of quantitative risk analysis, the results of which are expressed in terms of a Risk-adjusted net present value. This represents the intrinsic monetary value of investing in the fire safety system. The method suggested is exemplified by a case study performed in an Avesta Sheffield factory.

  9. Seroprevalence and risk factors for Toxoplasma gondii infection on pig farms in central China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, Qing; Wang, Zhengsong; Feng, Huihui; Fang, Rui; Nie, Hao; Hu, Min; Zhou, Yanqin; Zhao, Junlong

    2011-04-01

    Toxoplasma gondii is a protozoan parasite that causes severe diseases in mammals, including humans, around the world. In China, pork is the main meat source; accordingly, T. gondii in pigs is considered an important source for human toxoplasmosis. Understanding the epidemiology of toxoplasmosis in pig farms is thus important for control of the disease in humans. The purpose of the present study was to investigate the epizootiology of T. gondii infections in pig farms in central China by assessing the seroprevalence and risk factors of this disease. In the present study, 3,558 sera samples were collected from pigs in 37 large-scale pig farms in this region and tested by AG-ELISA. The total seroprevalence was 24.5%, with the greatest prevalence in breeding pigs. The risk factors for toxoplasmosis suggest that high frequency of the contact of pigs with cats (P ≤ 0.01; IC 95%), high density of pig breeding (P ≤ 0.01; IC 95%), the presence of mosquitoes and flies (P ≤ 0.01; IC 95%), semi-patency pens (P ≤ 0.05; IC 95%), and low frequency of scavenging (P ≤ 0.01; IC 95%) were all associated with seroprevalence. In addition, the use of sulfonamides (P ≤ 0.01; IC 95%) significantly decreased seroprevalence. This is the first report of anti- T. gondii antibodies in pigs on large-scale pig farms in central China. The findings will provide useful information for designing control strategies of toxoplasmasis in pig farms.

  10. RiskChanges Spatial Decision Support system for the analysis of changing multi-hazard risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Westen, Cees; Zhang, Kaixi; Bakker, Wim; Andrejchenko, Vera; Berlin, Julian; Olyazadeh, Roya; Cristal, Irina

    2015-04-01

    Within the framework of the EU FP7 Marie Curie Project CHANGES and the EU FP7 Copernicus project INCREO a spatial decision support system was developed with the aim to analyse the effect of risk reduction planning alternatives on reducing the risk now and in the future, and support decision makers in selecting the best alternatives. Central to the SDSS are the stakeholders. The envisaged users of the system are organizations involved in planning of risk reduction measures, and that have staff capable of visualizing and analyzing spatial data at a municipal scale. The SDSS should be able to function in different countries with different legal frameworks and with organizations with different mandates. These could be subdivided into Civil protection organization with the mandate to design disaster response plans, Expert organizations with the mandate to design structural risk reduction measures (e.g. dams, dikes, check-dams etc), and planning organizations with the mandate to make land development plans. The SDSS can be used in different ways: analyzing the current level of risk, analyzing the best alternatives for risk reduction, the evaluation of the consequences of possible future scenarios to the risk levels, and the evaluation how different risk reduction alternatives will lead to risk reduction under different future scenarios. The SDSS is developed based on open source software and following open standards, for code as well as for data formats and service interfaces. Code development was based upon open source software as well. The architecture of the system is modular. The various parts of the system are loosely coupled, extensible, using standards for interoperability, flexible and web-based. The Spatial Decision Support System is composed of a number of integrated components. The Risk Assessment component allows to carry out spatial risk analysis, with different degrees of complexity, ranging from simple exposure (overlay of hazard and assets maps) to

  11. Quantitative Risk Analysis: Method And Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anass BAYAGA

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Recent and past studies (King III report, 2009: 73-75; Stoney 2007;Committee of Sponsoring Organisation-COSO, 2004, Bartell, 2003; Liebenberg and Hoyt, 2003; Reason, 2000; Markowitz 1957 lament that although, the introduction of quantifying risk to enhance degree of objectivity in finance for instance was quite parallel to its development in the manufacturing industry, it is not the same in Higher Education Institution (HEI. In this regard, the objective of the paper was to demonstrate the methods and process of Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA through likelihood of occurrence of risk (phase I. This paper serves as first of a two-phased study, which sampled hundred (100 risk analysts in a University in the greater Eastern Cape Province of South Africa.The analysis of likelihood of occurrence of risk by logistic regression and percentages were conducted to investigate whether there were a significant difference or not between groups (analyst in respect of QRA.The Hosmer and Lemeshow test was non-significant with a chi-square(X2 =8.181; p = 0.300, which indicated that there was a good model fit, since the data did not significantly deviate from the model. The study concluded that to derive an overall likelihood rating that indicated the probability that a potential risk may be exercised within the construct of an associated threat environment, the following governing factors must be considered: (1 threat source motivation and capability (2 nature of the vulnerability (3 existence and effectiveness of current controls (methods and process.

  12. Quantitative risk analysis preoperational of gas pipeline

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Manfredi, Carlos; Bispo, Gustavo G.; Esteves, Alvaro [Gie S.A., Buenos Aires (Argentina)

    2009-07-01

    The purpose of this analysis is to predict how it can be affected the individual risk and the public's general security due to the operation of a gas pipeline. In case that the single or social risks are considered intolerable, compared with the international standards, to be recommended measures of mitigation of the risk associated to the operation until levels that can be considered compatible with the best practices in the industry. The quantitative risk analysis calculates the probability of occurrence of an event based on the frequency of occurrence of the same one and it requires a complex mathematical treatment. The present work has as objective to develop a calculation methodology based on the previously mentioned publication. This calculation methodology is centered in defining the frequencies of occurrence of events, according to representative database of each case in study. Besides, it settles down the consequences particularly according to the considerations of each area and the different possibilities of interferences with the gas pipeline in study. For each one of the interferences a typical curve of ignition probabilities is developed in function from the distance to the pipe. (author)

  13. Risk analysis in oil spill response planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chernoplekov, A.N.; Alexandrov, A.A.

    2005-01-01

    Tiered response is a basic approach to emergency plans, including oil spill response (OSR). This paper delineates a huge set of accidental scenarios within a certain tier of response generated by a computer during risk assessment. Parameters such as the amount of oil spilled, duration of discharge and types of losses should be provided in OSR scenarios. Examples of applications include offshore installations, sub sea or onshore pipelines, and localized onshore facilities. The paper demonstrates how to use risk analysis results for delineating all likely spills into groups that need a specific tier response. The best world practices and Russian regulatory approaches were outlined and compared. Corresponding algorithms were developed and their application in pipelines was presented. The algorithm combines expert's skills and spill trajectory modeling with the net environmental benefit analysis principle into the incident specific emergency response planning. 9 refs., 13 tabs., 2 figs

  14. Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russell, K.D.; McKay, M.K.; Sattison, M.B.; Skinner, N.L.; Wood, S.T.; Rasmuson, D.M.

    1992-01-01

    The Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) is a state-of-the-art, microcomputer-based probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model development and analysis tool to address key nuclear plant safety issues. IRRAS is an integrated software tool that gives the user the ability to create and analyze fault trees and accident sequences using a microcomputer. This program provides functions that range from graphical fault tree construction to cut set generation and quantification. Version 1.0 of the IRRAS program was released in February of 1987. Since that time, many user comments and enhancements have been incorporated into the program providing a much more powerful and user-friendly system. This version has been designated IRRAS 4.0 and is the subject of this Reference Manual. Version 4.0 of IRRAS provides the same capabilities as Version 1.0 and adds a relational data base facility for managing the data, improved functionality, and improved algorithm performance

  15. Zero risk fuel fabrication: a systems analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1979-01-01

    Zero risk is a concept used to ensure that system requirements are developed through a systems approach such that the choice(s) among alternatives represents the balanced viewpoints of performance, achievability and risk. Requirements to ensure characteristics such as stringent accountability, low personnel exposure and etc. are needed to guide the development of component and subsystems for future LMFBR fuel supply systems. To establish a consistent and objective set of requirements, RF and M-TMC has initiated a systems requirements analysis activity. This activity pivots on judgement and experience provided by a Task Force representing industrial companies engaged in fuel fabrication in licensed facilities. The Task Force members are listed in Appendix A. Input developed by this group is presented as a starting point for the systems requirements analysis

  16. Risk Analysis of Accounting Information System Infrastructure

    OpenAIRE

    MIHALACHE, Arsenie-Samoil

    2011-01-01

    National economy and security are fully dependent on information technology and infrastructure. At the core of the information infrastructure society relies on, we have the Internet, a system designed initially as a scientists’ forum for unclassified research. The use of communication networks and systems may lead to hazardous situations that generate undesirable effects such as communication systems breakdown, loss of data or taking the wrong decisions. The paper studies the risk analysis of...

  17. Risk analysis of external radiation therapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arvidsson, Marcus

    2011-09-01

    External radiation therapy is carried out via a complex treatment process in which many different groups of staff work together. Much of the work is dependent on and in collaboration with advanced technical equipment. The purpose of the research task has been to identify a process for external radiation therapy and to identify, test and analyze a suitable method for performing risk analysis of external radiation therapy

  18. Risk and value analysis of SETI

    Science.gov (United States)

    Billingham, J.

    1990-01-01

    This paper attempts to apply a traditional risk and value analysis to the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence--SETI. In view of the difficulties of assessing the probability of success, a comparison is made between SETI and a previous search for extraterrestrial life, the biological component of Project Viking. Our application of simple Utility Theory, given some reasonable assumptions, suggests that SETI is at least as worthwhile as the biological experiment on Viking.

  19. Applied decision analysis and risk evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferse, W.; Kruber, S.

    1995-01-01

    During 1994 the workgroup 'Applied Decision Analysis and Risk Evaluation; continued the work on the knowledge based decision support system XUMA-GEFA for the evaluation of the hazard potential of contaminated sites. Additionally a new research direction was started which aims at the support of a later stage of the treatment of contaminated sites: The clean-up decision. For the support of decisions arising at this stage, the methods of decision analysis will be used. Computational aids for evaluation and decision support were implemented and a case study at a waste disposal site in Saxony which turns out to be a danger for the surrounding groundwater ressource was initiated. (orig.)

  20. LANDSAFE: LANDING SITE RISK ANALYSIS SOFTWARE FRAMEWORK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Schmidt

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The European Space Agency (ESA is planning a Lunar Lander mission in the 2018 timeframe that will demonstrate precise soft landing at the polar regions of the Moon. To ensure a safe and successful landing a careful risk analysis has to be carried out. This is comprised of identifying favorable target areas and evaluating the surface conditions in these areas. Features like craters, boulders, steep slopes, rough surfaces and shadow areas have to be identified in order to assess the risk associated to a landing site in terms of a successful touchdown and subsequent surface operation of the lander. In addition, global illumination conditions at the landing site have to be simulated and analyzed. The Landing Site Risk Analysis software framework (LandSAfe is a system for the analysis, selection and certification of safe landing sites on the lunar surface. LandSAfe generates several data products including high resolution digital terrain models (DTMs, hazard maps, illumination maps, temperature maps and surface reflectance maps which assist the user in evaluating potential landing site candidates. This paper presents the LandSAfe system and describes the methods and products of the different modules. For one candidate landing site on the rim of Shackleton crater at the south pole of the Moon a high resolution DTM is showcased.

  1. High prevalence of hypertension and its selected risk factors among adult tribal population in Central India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chakma, Tapas; Kavishwar, Arvind; Sharma, Ravendra K; Rao, P Vinay

    2017-10-01

    A community based cross-sectional study was carried out to assess the prevalence of hypertension and associated risk factors like salt intake, 24-h urinary sodium excretion and body mass index (BMI) among tribal population of Mandla District, Central India. A total of 3090 individuals, from 1258 house hold drawn from 33 sampled villages and 12 urban wards were studied for blood pressure measurements and clinical examination, while 414 urine samples were collected for estimation of 24-h sodium excretion. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression were used to assess the associations of BMI, urinary sodium output and other risk factors with hypertension. Across the sample, 28.2% of males and 23.6% of females had either stage-I or stage-II hypertension. More than 8% of subjects  25 were considerably more to have high blood pressure. Salt intake is directly related to the hypertension. The prevalence of hypertension was significantly greater among those whose salt intake was more than 10 g per day. A positive association between urine sodium excretion and blood pressure was observed. The results of the present study show that the tribal population is also affected by the life style diseases at par with the non-tribal population.

  2. Mapping Soil Erosion Factors and Potential Erosion Risk for the National Park "Central Balkan"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ilieva, Diliana; Malinov, Ilia

    2014-05-01

    Soil erosion is widely recognised environmental problem. The report aims at presenting the main results from assessment and mapping of the factors of sheet water erosion and the potential erosion risk on the territory of National Park "Central Balkan". For this purpose, the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) was used for predicting soil loss from erosion. The influence of topography (LS-factor) and soil erodibility (K-factor) was assessed using small-scale topographic and soil maps. Rainfall erosivity (R-factor) was calculated from data of rainfalls with amounts exceeding 9.5 mm from 14 hydro-meteorological stations. The values of the erosion factors (R, K and LS) were presented for the areas of forest, sub-alpine and alpine zones. Using the methods of GIS, maps were plotted presenting the area distribution among the classes of the soil erosion factors and the potential risk in the respective zones. The results can be used for making accurate decisions for soil conservation and sustainable land management in the park.

  3. Cartographic modeling of heterogeneous landscape for footprint analysis of Eddy Covariance Measurements (Central Forest and Central Chernozem reserves, Russia)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozlov, Daniil

    2014-05-01

    The topographical, soil and vegetation maps of FLUXNET study areas are widely used for interpretation of eddy covariance measurements, for calibration of biogeochemical models and for making regional assessments of carbon balance. The poster presents methodological problems and results of ecosystem mapping using GIS, remote sensing, statistical and field methods on the example of two RusFluxNet sites in the Central Forest (33° E, 56°30'N) and Central Chernozem (36°10' E, 51°36'N) reserves. In the Central Forest reserve tacheometric measurements were used for topographical and peat surveys of bogged sphagnum spruce forest of 20-hectare area. Its common borders and its areas affected by windfall were determined. The supplies and spatial distribution of organic matter were obtained. The datasets of groundwater monitoring measurements on ten wells were compared with each other and the analysis of spatial and temporal groundwater variability was performed. The map of typical ecosystems of the reserve and its surroundings was created on the basis of analysis of multi-temporal Landsat images. In the Central Chernozem reserve the GNSS topographical survey was used for flux tower footprint mapping (22 ha). The features of microrelief predetermine development of different soils within the footprint. Close relationship between soil (73 drilling site) and terrain attributes (DEM with 2.5 m) allowed to build maps of soils and soil properties: carbon content, bulk density, upper boundary of secondary carbonates. Position for chamber-based soil respiration measurements was defined on the basis of these maps. The detailed geodetic and soil surveys of virgin lands and plowland were performed in order to estimate the effect of agrogenic processes such as dehumification, compaction and erosion on soils during the whole period of agricultural use of Central Chernozem reserve area and around. The choice of analogous soils was based on the similarity of their position within the

  4. Safety analysis and risk assessment handbook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, V.L.; Colwell, R.G.; Dickey, R.L.

    1997-01-01

    This Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) provides guidance to the safety analyst at the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site (RFETS) in the preparation of safety analyses and risk assessments. Although the older guidance (the Rocky Flats Risk Assessment Guide) continues to be used for updating the Final Safety Analysis Reports developed in the mid-1980s, this new guidance is used with all new authorization basis documents. With the mission change at RFETS came the need to establish new authorization basis documents for its facilities, whose functions had changed. The methodology and databases for performing the evaluations that support the new authorization basis documents had to be standardized, to avoid the use of different approaches and/or databases for similar accidents in different facilities. This handbook presents this new standardized approach. The handbook begins with a discussion of the requirements of the different types of authorization basis documents and how to choose the one appropriate for the facility to be evaluated. It then walks the analyst through the process of identifying all the potential hazards in the facility, classifying them, and choosing the ones that need to be analyzed further. It then discusses the methods for evaluating accident initiation and progression and covers the basic steps in a safety analysis, including consequence and frequency binning and risk ranking. The handbook lays out standardized approaches for determining the source terms of the various accidents (including airborne release fractions, leakpath factors, etc.), the atmospheric dispersion factors appropriate for Rocky Flats, and the methods for radiological and chemical consequence assessments. The radiological assessments use a radiological open-quotes templateclose quotes, a spreadsheet that incorporates the standard values of parameters, whereas the chemical assessments use the standard codes ARCHIE and ALOHA

  5. Fluid Centrality: A Social Network Analysis of Social-Technical Relations in Computer-Mediated Communication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enriquez, Judith Guevarra

    2010-01-01

    In this article, centrality is explored as a measure of computer-mediated communication (CMC) in networked learning. Centrality measure is quite common in performing social network analysis (SNA) and in analysing social cohesion, strength of ties and influence in CMC, and computer-supported collaborative learning research. It argues that measuring…

  6. Central obesity and atherogenic dyslipidemia in metabolic syndrome are associated with increased risk for colorectal adenoma in a Chinese population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lin Tsann

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Metabolic syndrome (MetS is composed of cardiovascular risk factors including insulin resistance, obesity, dyslipidemia, and hypertension. Most of the components of MetS have been linked to the development of neoplasm. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the relationship between individual components of MetS and colorectal adenoma. Methods The study subjects were recruited from a pool of 4872 individuals who underwent a health check-up examination during the period January 2006 to May 2008. Each participant fulfilled a structured questionnaire. MetS was defined based on the America Heart Association and National Heart Lung Blood Institute criteria. Subjects with history of colon cancer, colon polyps, colitis, or prior colonic surgery were excluded. Results A total of 4122 subjects were included for final analysis (2367 men and 1755 women; mean age, 49.6 ± 11.7 years. Of them, MetS was diagnosed in 708 men (29.9% and in 367 women (20.9%. Among the patients with MetS, 34.6% had adenoma, 31.7% had hyperplastic polyps and 23.3% were polyp-free (p Conclusions Of the components of MetS analyzed in this study, central obesity and dyslipidemia are independent risk factors for colorectal adenoma. With regard to the prevention of colorectal neoplasm, life-style modification such as weight reduction is worthwhile.

  7. Risk analysis of nuclear safeguards regulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al-Ayat, R.A.; Altman, W.D.; Judd, B.R.

    1982-06-01

    The Aggregated Systems Model (ASM), a probabilisitic risk analysis tool for nuclear safeguards, was applied to determine benefits and costs of proposed amendments to NRC regulations governing nuclear material control and accounting systems. The objective of the amendments was to improve the ability to detect insiders attempting to steal large quantities of special nuclear material (SNM). Insider threats range from likely events with minor consequences to unlikely events with catastrophic consequences. Moreover, establishing safeguards regulations is complicated by uncertainties in threats, safeguards performance, and consequences, and by the subjective judgments and difficult trade-offs between risks and safeguards costs. The ASM systematically incorporates these factors in a comprehensive, analytical framework. The ASM was used to evaluate the effectiveness of current safeguards and to quantify the risk of SNM theft. Various modifications designed to meet the objectives of the proposed amendments to reduce that risk were analyzed. Safeguards effectiveness was judged in terms of the probability of detecting and preventing theft, the expected time to detection, and the expected quantity of SNM diverted in a year. Data were gathered in tours and interviews at NRC-licensed facilities. The assessment at each facility was begun by carefully selecting scenarios representing the range of potential insider threats. A team of analysts and facility managers assigned probabilities for detection and prevention events in each scenario. Using the ASM we computed the measures of system effectiveness and identified cost-effective safeguards modifications that met the objectives of the proposed amendments

  8. AGROFOREST SYSTEM INVESTMENT ANALYSIS UNDER RISK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luiz Moreira Coelho Junior

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Agroforestry System is the ecological and economical interaction of the use of the land, with the combination ofagriculture, livestock and forest production, in temporary sequence and in a simultaneous way. The studies of investments in projectsassume the existence of risks and uncertainties. An alternative to reduce the risk in the forest investment is the association with theagricultural. This work analyzed the situations of risk of a system agroflorestal. Monte Carlo s method comes from the theory ofsimulations and stands out as a powerful and useful tool to provide a distribution of probabilities for the analysis of decision. A totalof 10,000 interactions of the Net Present Value (VPL, of Internal Rate of Return (TIR and of the Equivalent Periodic Benefit (BPEwere made in order to establish the probability distribution. The results presented 78.65% of chance of VPL being US$ 1,410.00;77.56% of chance of TIR being 36.36%, and; 75.39% of chance of BPE being US$ 309.70; the agroforestry system presented lowinvestment risk; and the livestock is the main product of the agrossilvopastoril system, followed by charcoal.

  9. Approach to uncertainty in risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rish, W.R.

    1988-08-01

    In the Fall of 1985 EPA's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) initiated a project to develop a formal approach to dealing with uncertainties encountered when estimating and evaluating risks to human health and the environment. Based on a literature review of modeling uncertainty, interviews with ORP technical and management staff, and input from experts on uncertainty analysis, a comprehensive approach was developed. This approach recognizes by design the constraints on budget, time, manpower, expertise, and availability of information often encountered in ''real world'' modeling. It is based on the observation that in practice risk modeling is usually done to support a decision process. As such, the approach focuses on how to frame a given risk modeling problem, how to use that framing to select an appropriate mixture of uncertainty analyses techniques, and how to integrate the techniques into an uncertainty assessment that effectively communicates important information and insight to decision-makers. The approach is presented in this report. Practical guidance on characterizing and analyzing uncertainties about model form and quantities and on effectively communicating uncertainty analysis results is included. Examples from actual applications are presented.

  10. Approach to uncertainty in risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rish, W.R.

    1988-08-01

    In the Fall of 1985 EPA's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) initiated a project to develop a formal approach to dealing with uncertainties encountered when estimating and evaluating risks to human health and the environment. Based on a literature review of modeling uncertainty, interviews with ORP technical and management staff, and input from experts on uncertainty analysis, a comprehensive approach was developed. This approach recognizes by design the constraints on budget, time, manpower, expertise, and availability of information often encountered in ''real world'' modeling. It is based on the observation that in practice risk modeling is usually done to support a decision process. As such, the approach focuses on how to frame a given risk modeling problem, how to use that framing to select an appropriate mixture of uncertainty analyses techniques, and how to integrate the techniques into an uncertainty assessment that effectively communicates important information and insight to decision-makers. The approach is presented in this report. Practical guidance on characterizing and analyzing uncertainties about model form and quantities and on effectively communicating uncertainty analysis results is included. Examples from actual applications are presented

  11. Debris flows risk analysis and direct loss estimation: the case study of Valtellina di Tirano, Italy

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Blahůt, Jan; Glade, T.; Sterlacchini, S.

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 11, č. 2 (2014), s. 288-307 ISSN 1672-6316 Institutional support: RVO:67985891 Keywords : Debris flows * Risk analysis * Economic losses * Central Alps * Italy Subject RIV: DE - Earth Magnetism, Geodesy, Geography OBOR OECD: Physical geography Impact factor: 0.963, year: 2014

  12. Regulating food law : risk analysis and the precautionary principle as general principles of EU food law

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Szajkowska, A.

    2012-01-01

    In food law scientific evidence occupies a central position. This study offers a legal insight into risk analysis and the precautionary principle, positioned in the EU as general principles applicable to all food safety measures, both national and EU. It develops a new method of looking at these

  13. AN ANALYSIS OF PROTEIN AND CALORIE CONSUMPTION IN CENTRAL JAVA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agus Widarjono

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available AbstractThis study analyses calorie and protein consumption in Central Java Province. The calorie and protein elasticity are derived from demand elasticity of the ten food groups encompassing cereals, fish, meats, eggs and milk, vegetables, fruits, oil and fats, prepared foods and drinks, other foods and tobacco products. Most of calorie and protein-price elasticity of the ten food group are negative. Consumption of calorie and protein are most responsive to prices of eggs and milk. Protein -price elasticities are less elastic than calorie-price elasticities. Calorie and protein-income elasticity are positive and become lesselastic in moving from lower to higher income households but protein is less responsive to income change than calorie. Keywords: QUAIDS, demand elasticity, nutrient elasticity, Central Java ProvinceJEL Classification numbers: D12, O12AbstrakStudi ini menganlisis konsumsi kalori dan protein di Jawa Tengah. Elastisitas kalori dan protein dihitung dari elastisitas permintaan dari 10 kelompok komoditi makanan yang terdiri dari padi-padian, ikan, daging, telur dan susu, sayur-sayuran, buah-buahan, minyak dan lemak, makanan dan minumun jadi, makanan lainnya dan tembakau dan hasilnya. Sebagian besar elastisitas harga kalori dan protein adalah negatif. Konsumsi kalori dan protein adalah kelompok makanan yang paling responsif terhadap perubahan harga telur dan susu. Elastisitas pendapatan kalori dan protein adalah positif tetapi menjadi lebih elastis untuk rumah tangga berpenghasilan lebih tinggi tetapi protein kurang responsif terhadap perubahan pendapatan daripada kalori.Keywords: QUAIDS, elastisitas permintaan, elastisitas nutrisi, Jawa TengahJEL Classification numbers: D12, O12

  14. System Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krantz, E.A.; Russell, K.D.; Stewart, H.D.; Van Siclen, V.S.

    1986-01-01

    Utilization of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) related information in the day-to-day operation of plant systems has, in the past, been impracticable due to the size of the computers needed to run PRA codes. This paper discusses a microcomputer-based database system which can greatly enhance the capability of operators or regulators to incorporate PRA methodologies into their routine decision making. This system is called the System Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) system. SARA was developed by EG and G Idaho, Inc. at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory to facilitate the study of frequency and consequence analyses of accident sequences from a large number of light water reactors (LWRs) in this country. This information is being amassed by several studies sponsored by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC). To meet the need of portability and accessibility, and to perform the variety of calculations necessary, it was felt that a microcomputer-based system would be most suitable

  15. Methodologies for risk analysis in slope instability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernabeu Garcia, M.; Diaz Torres, J. A.

    2014-01-01

    This paper is an approach to the different methodologies used in conducting landslide risk maps so that the reader can get a basic knowledge about how to proceed in its development. The landslide hazard maps are increasingly demanded by governments. This is because due to climate change, deforestation and the pressure exerted by the growth of urban centers, damage caused by natural phenomena is increasing each year, making this area of work a field of study with increasing importance. To explain the process of mapping a journey through each of the phases of which it is composed is made: from the study of the types of slope movements and the necessary management of geographic information systems (GIS) inventories and landslide susceptibility analysis, threat, vulnerability and risk. (Author)

  16. Model risk analysis for risk management and option pricing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kerkhof, F.L.J.

    2003-01-01

    Due to the growing complexity of products in financial markets, market participants rely more and more on quantitative models for trading and risk management decisions. This introduces a fairly new type of risk, namely, model risk. In the first part of this thesis we investigate the quantitative

  17. Nuclear risk analysis of the Ulysses mission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bartram, B.W.; Vaughan, F.R.; Englehart, D.R.W.

    1991-01-01

    The use of a radioisotope thermoelectric generator fueled with plutonium-238 dioxide on the Space Shuttle-launched Ulysses mission implies some level of risk due to potential accidents. This paper describes the method used to quantify risks in the Ulysses mission Final Safety Analysis Report prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy. The starting point for the analysis described herein is following input of source term probability distributions from the General Electric Company. A Monte Carlo technique is used to develop probability distributions of radiological consequences for a range of accident scenarios thoughout the mission. Factors affecting radiological consequences are identified, the probability distribution of the effect of each factor determined, and the functional relationship among all the factors established. The probability distributions of all the factor effects are then combined using a Monte Carlo technique. The results of the analysis are presented in terms of complementary cumulative distribution functions (CCDF) by mission sub-phase, phase, and the overall mission. The CCDFs show the total probability that consequences (calculated health effects) would be equal to or greater than a given value

  18. Strengthening the Three Lines of Defence in Terms of More Efficient Operational Risk Management in Central Banks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luburić Radoica

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper is the result of the author`s many years of multidisciplinary research in the areas of quality management and operational risk management. The main focus of the research is aimed at strengthening the model of the “three lines of defence” in terms of more efficient management of operational risks - those that arise as a result of inadequate and unsuccessful processes and systems, human factors, as well as those that can appear as a result of external events. The strengthening of the three lines of defence model is brought about through the synergy of quality management principles, the principles of risk management, and the total quality management approach. In essence, the term strengthening may be interpreted as a process of continual improvement. Business operations based on the principles of quality management and risk management allow central banks to be able to continuously improve their overall business performance. The principles of quality management contain properly aligned and matched best solutions from current management theory and practice. Designed to work together - and this essentially means in a consistent, synchronized and synergistic manner, the principles are translated into a series of requirements and guidelines of international standards suitable for implementation. Through their synergy, the principles of quality management and risk management, as well as approaches to total quality management form a clear, applicable and sustainable paradigm of successful management of central banks. Incorporation of the principles of quality management in central bank systems and processes would significantly strengthen the three lines of defence, in terms of efficient operational risk management, which this paper aims to show in a clear and comprehensive manner. Although any central bank is a specific institution, all the principles of quality management and risk management can be applied to its operations. In addition to

  19. Stereotactic body radiotherapy for centrally located stage I NSCLC. A multicenter analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schanne, Daniel H.; Nestle, Ursula; Grosu, Anca L. [Universitaetsklinik Freiburg, Klinik fuer Strahlenheilkunde, Freiburg (Germany); Allgaeuer, Michael [Barmherzige Brueder, Klinik fuer Strahlentherapie, Regensburg (Germany); Andratschke, Nicolaus; Molls, Michael [TU Muenchen, Klinik und Poliklinik fuer Strahlentherapie und Radiologische Onkologie, Muenchen (Germany); Appold, Steffen [Universitaetsklinikum Dresden, Klinik und Poliklinik fuer Strahlentherapie und Radioonkologie, Dresden (Germany); Dieckmann, Ute [Allgemeines Krankenhaus Wien, Univ. Klinik fuer Strahlentherapie, Wien (Austria); Ernst, Iris [Universitaetsklinikum Muenster, Klinik fuer Strahlentherapie, Muenster (Germany); Ganswindt, Ute [LMU Muenchen, Klinik und Poliklinik fuer Strahlentherapie und Radioonkologie, Muenchen (Germany); Holy, Richard [Universitaetsklinikum Aachen, Klinik fuer Strahlentherapie, Aachen (Germany); Nevinny-Stickel, Meinhard [Medizinischen Universitaet Innsbruck, Univ. Klinik fuer Strahlentherapie und Radioonkologie, Innsbruck (Austria); Semrau, Sabine [Universitaetsklinikum Erlangen, Strahlenklinik Erlangen, Erlangen (Germany); Sterzing, Florian [Universitaetsklinikum Heidelberg, Klinik fuer Radioonkologie und Strahlentherapie, Heidelberg (Germany); Wittig, Andrea [Philipps-Universitaet Marburg, Klinik fuer Strahlentherapie und Radioonkologie, Marburg (Germany); Guckenberger, Matthias [Universitaet Wuerzburg, Klinik und Poliklinik fuer Strahlentherapie, Wuerzburg (Germany)

    2014-08-27

    The purpose of this work is to analyze patterns of care and outcome after stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) for centrally located, early-stage, non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and to address the question of potential risk for increased toxicity in this entity. A total of 90 patients with centrally located NSCLC were identified among 613 cases in a database of 13 German and Austrian academic radiotherapy centers. The outcome of centrally located NSCLC was compared to that of cases with peripheral tumor location from the same database. Patients with central tumors most commonly presented with UICC stage IB (50 %), while the majority of peripheral lesions were stage IA (56 %). Average tumor diameters were 3.3 cm (central) and 2.8 cm (peripheral). Staging PET/CT was available for 73 and 74 % of peripheral and central tumors, respectively. Biopsy was performed in 84 % (peripheral) and 88 % (central) of cases. Doses varied significantly between central and peripheral lesions with a median BED{sub 10} of 72 Gy and 84 Gy, respectively (p < 0.001). Fractionation differed as well with medians of 5 (central) and 3 (peripheral) fractions (p < 0.001). In the Kaplan-Meier analysis, 3-year actuarial overall survival was 29 % (central) and 51 % (peripheral; p = 0.004) and freedom from local progression was 52 % (central) and 84 % (peripheral; p < 0.001). Toxicity after treatment of central tumors was low with no grade III/IV and one grade V event. Mortality rates were 0 and 1 % after 30 and 60 days, respectively. Local tumor control in patients treated with SBRT for centrally located, early-stage NSCLC was favorable, provided ablative radiation doses were prescribed. This was, however, not the case in the majority of patients, possibly due to concerns about treatment-related toxicity. Reported toxicity was low, but prospective trials are needed to resolve the existing uncertainties and to establish safe high-dose regimens for this cohort of patients. (orig.) [German] Ziel

  20. Analysis of clinical features and risk factors of children with acute leukemia complicated with central nervous system complications%急性白血病患儿伴中枢神经系统并发症临床特点及危险因素分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王毅捷; 马亚震; 孙和顺

    2016-01-01

    Objective To analyze the clinical features and risk factors of children with acute leukemia (AL) complicated with central nervous system (CNS) complications .Methods Seventy children with acute leukemia admitted into our hospital from March 2010 to March 2015 were selected as the research objects .The clinical data of all children were retrospectively an-alyzed ,including the occurrence rate of CNS complications and their clinical features and the risk factors of CNS complications were analyzed at the same time .Results There were 12 cases (17 .14% ) of CNS in 70 cases ,including 8 cases of AML com-plicated with CNS ,3 cases of ALL complicated with CNS and 1 case of acute granular lymphocyte leukemia and the complica-tions of CNS mainly were intracranial hemorrhage .The occurrence rates of CNS complications with platelet counts less than 50 × 109 L - 1 (whether or not) were 50 .00% and 2 .08% .The rates of white blood cell counts more than 100 × 109 L - 1 (whether or not) respectively were 50 .00% and 2 .08% .The rate of lymphadenectasis(whether or not) respectively was 47 .62% and 4 . 08% and there was significant difference between the two groups(P < 0 .01) .Logistic regression analysis showed that less than 50 × 109 L - 1 of the platelet counts ,more than 100 × 109 L - 1 of white blood cell counts and lymphadenectasis were the risk factors of AL with CNS complications .Conclusion Intracranial hemorrhage is common in children with acute leukemia com-plicated with central nervous system complications .And the risk factors affecting the occurrence of CNS complications include low platelet count ,high white blood cell count and lymphadenectasis .%目的:分析急性白血病(AL)患儿伴中枢神经系统(CNS)并发症的临床特点及危险因素。方法以我院2010-03—2015-03收治的70例急性白血病患儿为研究对象,回顾性分析 CNS 并发症发生率、CNS 并发症临床特点等,同时分析CNS 并发

  1. Risk management and analysis: risk assessment (qualitative and quantitative)

    OpenAIRE

    Valentin Mazareanu

    2007-01-01

    We use to define risk as the possibility of suffering a loss. Starting this, risk management is defined as a business process whose purpose is to ensure that the organization is protected against risks and their effects. In order to prioritize, to develop a response plan and after that to monitor the identified risks we need to asses them. But at this point a question is born: should I choose a qualitative approach or a quantitative one? This paper will make a short overview over the risk eva...

  2. NATURAL AND ANTHROPIC RISK STUDIES IN FOUR DECADES IN THE GEOGRAPHICAL JOURNAL OF CENTRAL AMERICA (1974 - 2015)

    OpenAIRE

    Quesada-Román, Adolfo

    2017-01-01

    The aim of this work is to identify the influence of the international and national epistemological trends and the techniques in the risk management of disasters (RMD) in Costa Rica. To do this, the journal papers of the Geographical Journal of Central America between 1974 and 2015 were analyzed -114 included topics related to natural and anthropogenic risks. They were classified into eight thematic classes: seismic hazards, volcanic hazards, slope processes hazards, hydrometeorological hazar...

  3. Heavy Metal Contamination in Soil and Brown Rice and Human Health Risk Assessment near Three Mining Areas in Central China

    OpenAIRE

    Fan, Yu; Zhu, Tingping; Li, Mengtong; He, Jieyi; Huang, Ruixue

    2017-01-01

    Background. Metal mining and waste discharge lead to regional heavy metal contamination and attract major concern because of the potential risk to local residents. Methods. This research was conducted to determine lead (Pb), cadmium (Cd), arsenic (As), manganese (Mn), and antimony (Sb) concentrations in soil and brown rice samples from three heavy metal mining areas in Hunan Province, central China, and to assess the potential health risks to local inhabitants. Results. Local soil contaminati...

  4. Navy Family Advocacy Program. Appendix. Analysis of Central Registry Reports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1983-12-01

    2/76) 2 Suspected Abuzso/Malect/Sexua1 Assault an ae2404 65.) "Suspected Abuso /Neglect/ Sexual Assault and Rape Report" 2226 60.5 NAVMED 6320/15A...ANALYSIS OF SEXUAL ASSAULT REPORTS ........... 50 HAPTER V: SUMAY ANALYSIS Or rAMILY ADVOCACY PROGRAM REPORTS . 56 APPENDIX...cont’d)I PAGE CHAPTER IV: SEXUAL ASSAULT TV-1 Fore . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51 IV-2 Type of Maltreatment ............... 53 IV-3

  5. Superiority of centralized procurement and its technical and economic analysis for nuclear power intensification construction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Feng

    2010-01-01

    The intensified management is the basic orientation for modernized enterprise group to improve efficiency and benefit. For most industrial enterprises, in the implementation of intensification management process, the centralized procurement is one of most efficient paths. At present most of the international's and domestic outstanding enterprises are studying and positively using this approach. This article indicated that the centralized procurement mode is inevitable during intensification construction process based on the theoretical analysis of the advantage of centralized procurement and the economic analysis of typical cases. (author)

  6. Seroprevalence and risk factors of brucellosis in abattoir workers at Debre Zeit and Modjo export abattoir, Central Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsegay, Amanuel; Tuli, Getachew; Kassa, Tesfu; Kebede, Nigatu

    2017-01-26

    Brucellosis is one of the major zoonoses globally with great veterinary and public health importance, particularly in developing countries where people are having frequent contact with livestock and animal products. This cross sectional study was carried out from November 2013 to May 2014 to determine the seroprevalence and assess the potential risk factors of brucellosis in abattoir workers of five export abattoirs at Debre Ziet and Modjo, Central Ethiopia. Serology and structured questionnaire were the methods used. In this study, 156 abattoir workers participated in the questionnaire survey and among them, 149 agreed for blood sample collection. Rose Bengal Plate Test and Complement Fixation Test were conducted using sera samples at serology laboratory of the National Animal Health Diagnostic and Investigation Center. Data collection sheets were used to gather information on possible risk factors believed to influence the spread of Brucella infection in abattoir workers such as sex, age, marital status, duration on job, types of work, educational level, etc. and further information obtained include knowledge of brucellosis and other zoonotic diseases infection, symptoms of the disease, milk and meat consumption habits and work related risk factors. Chi-square and Fisher's exact tests were used for data analysis. The overall seroprevalence of brucellosis in abattoir workers was found to be 4.7 and 1.3% using Rose Bengal plate test and Compliment fixation test, respectively. Based on the questionnaire survey, 66 (44.2%) and 85 (53.21%) of abattoir workers were aware of brucellosis and other zoonotic diseases, and 29 (18.6%) and 21 (13.5%) were using gloves and cover their mouth while slaughtering, respectively. Brucellosis in abattoir workers could be prevented by using protective closing and measures. Concerned body should educate occupationally exposed groups and the general public regarding e prevention and control of brucellosis and other zoonotic diseases.

  7. RISK ANALYSIS APPLIED IN OIL EXPLORATION AND PRODUCTION

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ES Obe

    aDepartment of Civil Engineering, University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Enugu State, Nigeria. ... The analysis in this work is ... risk analysis, oil field, risk management, projects, investment opportunity. 1. .... own merit but since the company has limited.

  8. Common genetic variants near the Brittle Cornea Syndrome locus ZNF469 influence the blinding disease risk factor central corneal thickness.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi Lu

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Central corneal thickness (CCT, one of the most highly heritable human traits (h(2 typically>0.9, is important for the diagnosis of glaucoma and a potential risk factor for glaucoma susceptibility. We conducted genome-wide association studies in five cohorts from Australia and the United Kingdom (total N = 5058. Three cohorts were based on individually genotyped twin collections, with the remaining two cohorts genotyped on pooled samples from singletons with extreme trait values. The pooled sample findings were validated by individual genotyping the pooled samples together with additional samples also within extreme quantiles. We describe methods for efficient combined analysis of the results from these different study designs. We have identified and replicated quantitative trait loci on chromosomes 13 and 16 for association with CCT. The locus on chromosome 13 (nearest gene FOXO1 had an overall meta-analysis p-value for all the individually genotyped samples of 4.6x10(-10. The locus on chromosome 16 was associated with CCT with p = 8.95x10(-11. The nearest gene to the associated chromosome 16 SNPs was ZNF469, a locus recently implicated in Brittle Cornea Syndrome (BCS, a very rare disorder characterized by abnormal thin corneas. Our findings suggest that in addition to rare variants in ZNF469 underlying CCT variation in BCS patients, more common variants near this gene may contribute to CCT variation in the general population.

  9. Rapid Prototyping of the Central Safety System for Nuclear Risk in ITER

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scibile, L. [ITER Organization, 13 - St. Paul lez Durance (France); Ambrosino, G.; De Tommasi, G.; Pironti, A. [Euratom-ENEA-CREATE, Universita di Napoli Federico II, Napoli (Italy)

    2009-07-01

    Full text of publication follows: In the current ITER Baseline design, the Central Safety System for Nuclear Risk (CSS-N) is the safety control system in charge to assure nuclear safety for the plant, personnel and environment. In particular it is envisaged that the CSS shall interface to the plant safety systems for nuclear risk and shall coordinate the individual protection provided by the intervention of these systems by the activation, where required, of additional protections. The design of such a system, together with its implementation, strongly depends on the requirements, particularly in terms of reliability. The CSS-N is a safety critical system, thus its validation and commissioning play a very important role, since the required level of reliability must be demonstrated. In such a scenario, where a new and non-conventional system has to be deployed, it is strongly recommended to use modeling and simulation tools since the early design phase. Indeed, the modeling tools will help in the definition of the system requirements, and they will be used to test and validate the control logic. Furthermore these tools can be used to rapid design the safety system and to carry out hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) simulations, which permit to assess the performance of the control hardware against a plant simulator. Both a control system prototype and a safety system oriented plant simulator have been developed to assess first the requirements and then the performance of the CSS-N. In particular the presented SW/HW framework permits to design and verify the CSS protection logics and to test and validate these logics by means of HIL simulations. This work introduces both the prototype and plant simulator architectures, together with the methodology adopted to design and implement these validation tools. (authors)

  10. Analysis and risk management after Fukushima

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nelson, P. F.

    2011-11-01

    This article describes the impact in the nuclear industry after the only accidents with affectation to the public: the Three Mile Island and Chernobyl. and discusses what comes after Fukushima with regard to the Safety Probabilistic Analysis (Spa) and their use in the decisions taking. A reference to the standard ASME/ANS of Spa is made and the possible changes due to the learned lessons after the Fukushima accident. The main changes are described in the art state and the priorities of the Spa studies. These include the change in the mission time of the emergency systems, the necessity to model the alternating systems, the risk consideration of a site with multi-units, the importance of making a Spa level 3 and the Spa of external events. The Spa is the key tool of the discipline of risk management, but given the learned lessons, is more necessary in all the aspects of the operation and surveillance of a nuclear power plant. A strategy is presented to improve the response to a severe accident, that includes consider the risks of the specific nuclear power plant. (Author)

  11. Rapid prototyping of the Central Safety System for Nuclear Risk in ITER

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scibile, L. [ITER Organization, CS 90 046, St. Paul-lez-Durance, Cedex (France); Ambrosino, G. [Consorzio CREATE, Universita degli Studi di Napoli Federico II, via Claudio 21, 80125, Napoli (Italy); De Tommasi, G., E-mail: detommas@unina.i [Consorzio CREATE, Universita degli Studi di Napoli Federico II, via Claudio 21, 80125, Napoli (Italy); Pironti, A. [Consorzio CREATE, Universita degli Studi di Napoli Federico II, via Claudio 21, 80125, Napoli (Italy)

    2010-07-15

    The Central Safety System for Nuclear Risk (CSS-N) coordinates the safety control systems to ensure nuclear safety for the ITER complex. Since the CSS-N is a safety critical system, its validation and commissioning play a very important role; in particular the required level of reliability must be demonstrated. In such a scenario, it is strongly recommended to use modeling and simulation tools since the early design phase. Indeed, the modeling tools will help in the definition of the control system requirements. Furthermore the models can than be used for the rapid prototyping of the safety system. Hardware-in-the-loop simulations can also be performed in order to assess the performance of the control hardware against a plant simulator. The proposed approach relies on the availability of a plant simulator to develop the prototype of the control system. This paper introduces the methodology used to design and develop both the CSS-N Oriented Plant Simulator and the CSS-N Prototype.

  12. On Central Branch/Reinsurance Risk Networks: Exact Results and Heuristics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florin Avram

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Modeling the interactions between a reinsurer and several insurers, or between a central management branch (CB and several subsidiary business branches, or between a coalition and its members, are fascinating problems, which suggest many interesting questions. Beyond two dimensions, one cannot expect exact answers. Occasionally, reductions to one dimension or heuristic simplifications yield explicit approximations, which may be useful for getting qualitative insights. In this paper, we study two such problems: the ruin problem for a two-dimensional CB network under a new mathematical model, and the problem of valuation of two-dimensional CB networks by optimal dividends. A common thread between these two problems is that the one dimensional reduction exploits the concept of invariant cones. Perhaps the most important contribution of the paper is the questions it raises; for that reason, we have found it useful to complement the particular examples solved by providing one possible formalization of the concept of a multi-dimensional risk network, which seems to us an appropriate umbrella for the kind of questions raised here.

  13. Clinical risk management in hospitals: strategy, central coordination and dialogue as key enablers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briner, Matthias; Manser, Tanja; Kessler, Oliver

    2013-04-01

    The study aims to identify key enablers fostering clinical risk management (CRM) in hospitals to guide health care in this vital area of patient safety. A cross-sectional survey was conducted at the national level in 324 Swiss hospitals in 2007-2008 to assess the relationship between key elements and systematic CRM. Therefore, a comprehensive monitoring instrument for CRM was used for the first time. Organizational factors (e.g. strategy, coordination, resources) and structural conditions (e.g. hospital size) were tested as key elements. CRM was assessed by evaluating its maturity (i.e. the level of CRM development) by 12 theoretically derived indices joining together essential aspects of CRM at the hospital level and the service level. Chi-square measures were used to analyse the relationships between organizational factors or structural conditions and maturity of CRM. Participation in this voluntary survey was good, with CRM experts of 138 out of 324 hospitals responding (response rate 43%). Three key enablers for CRM were identified: implementing a function for central CRM coordination, assuring dialogue with and between the different hospital services, and developing strategic CRM objectives. This study offers, for the first time, an assessment of the maturity of hospitals' CRM and identifies key enablers related to CRM. This is a feasible first step in guiding hospitals to shape their CRM and presents a basis for future studies, for example, linking CRM to outcome data. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  14. Rapid prototyping of the Central Safety System for Nuclear Risk in ITER

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scibile, L.; Ambrosino, G.; De Tommasi, G.; Pironti, A.

    2010-01-01

    The Central Safety System for Nuclear Risk (CSS-N) coordinates the safety control systems to ensure nuclear safety for the ITER complex. Since the CSS-N is a safety critical system, its validation and commissioning play a very important role; in particular the required level of reliability must be demonstrated. In such a scenario, it is strongly recommended to use modeling and simulation tools since the early design phase. Indeed, the modeling tools will help in the definition of the control system requirements. Furthermore the models can than be used for the rapid prototyping of the safety system. Hardware-in-the-loop simulations can also be performed in order to assess the performance of the control hardware against a plant simulator. The proposed approach relies on the availability of a plant simulator to develop the prototype of the control system. This paper introduces the methodology used to design and develop both the CSS-N Oriented Plant Simulator and the CSS-N Prototype.

  15. Risk Analysis Approach to Rainwater Harvesting Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nadia Ursino

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Urban rainwater reuse preserves water resources and promotes sustainable development in rapidly growing urban areas. The efficiency of a large number of urban water reuse systems, operating under different climate and demand conditions, is evaluated here on the base of a new risk analysis approach. Results obtained by probability analysis (PA indicate that maximum efficiency in low demanding scenarios is above 0.5 and a threshold, distinguishing low from high demanding scenarios, indicates that in low demanding scenarios no significant improvement in performance may be attained by increasing the storage capacity of rainwater harvesting tanks. Threshold behaviour is displayed when tank storage capacity is designed to match both the average collected volume and the average reuse volume. The low demand limit cannot be achieved under climate and operating conditions characterized by a disproportion between harvesting and demand volume.

  16. Value-at-Risk analysis using ARMAX GARCHX approach for estimating risk of banking subsector stock return’s

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dewi Ratih, Iis; Sutijo Supri Ulama, Brodjol; Prastuti, Mike

    2018-03-01

    Value at Risk (VaR) is one of the statistical methods used to measure market risk by estimating the worst losses in a given time period and level of confidence. The accuracy of this measuring tool is very important in determining the amount of capital that must be provided by the company to cope with possible losses. Because there is a greater losses to be faced with a certain degree of probability by the greater risk. Based on this, VaR calculation analysis is of particular concern to researchers and practitioners of the stock market to be developed, thus getting more accurate measurement estimates. In this research, risk analysis of stocks in four banking sub-sector, Bank Rakyat Indonesia, Bank Mandiri, Bank Central Asia and Bank Negara Indonesia will be done. Stock returns are expected to be influenced by exogenous variables, namely ICI and exchange rate. Therefore, in this research, stock risk estimation are done by using VaR ARMAX-GARCHX method. Calculating the VaR value with the ARMAX-GARCHX approach using window 500 gives more accurate results. Overall, Bank Central Asia is the only bank had the estimated maximum loss in the 5% quantile.

  17. COST ANALYSIS OF PERIPHERALLY INSERTED CENTRAL CATHETER IN PEDIATRIC PATIENTS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Zhaoxin; Connolly, Bairbre L; Ungar, Wendy J; Coyte, Peter C

    2018-01-01

    A peripherally inserted central catheter (PICC) is a useful option in providing secure venous access, which enables patients to be discharged earlier with the provision of home care. The objective was to identify the costs associated with having a PICC from a societal perspective, and to identify factors that are associated with total PICC costs. Data were obtained from a retrospective cohort of 469 hospitalized pediatric patients with PICCs inserted. Both direct and indirect costs were estimated from a societal perspective. Insertion costs, complication costs, nurse and physician assessment costs, inpatient ward costs, catheter removal costs, home care costs, travel costs, and the cost associated with productivity losses incurred by parents were included in this study. Based on catheter dwell time, the median total cost associated with a PICC per patient per day (including inpatient hospital costs) was $3,133.5 ($2,210.7-$9,627.0) in 2017 Canadian dollars ($1.00USD = $1.25CAD in 2017). The adjusted mean cost per patient per day was $2,648.2 ($2,402.4-$2,920.4). Excluding inpatient ward costs, the median total and adjusted costs per patient per day were $198.8 ($91.8-$2,475.8) and $362.7($341.0-$386.0), respectively. Younger age, occurrence of complications, more catheter dwell days, wards with more intensive care, and the absence of home care were significant factors associated with higher total PICC costs. This study has demonstrated the costs associated with PICCs. This information may be helpful for healthcare providers to understand PICC related cost in children and resource implications.

  18. Landslide risk analysis: a multi-disciplinary methodological approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Sterlacchini

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available This study describes an analysis carried out within the European community project "ALARM" (Assessment of Landslide Risk and Mitigation in Mountain Areas, 2004 on landslide risk assessment in the municipality of Corvara in Badia, Italy. This mountainous area, located in the central Dolomites (Italian Alps, poses a significant landslide hazard to several man-made and natural objects. Three parameters for determining risk were analysed as an aid to preparedness and mitigation planning: event occurrence probability, elements at risk, and the vulnerability of these elements. Initially, a landslide hazard scenario was defined; this step was followed by the identification of the potential vulnerable elements, by the estimation of the expected physical effects, due to the occurrence of a damaging phenomenon, and by the analysis of social and economic features of the area. Finally, a potential risk scenario was defined, where the relationships between the event, its physical effects, and its economic consequences were investigated. People and public administrators with training and experience in local landsliding and slope processes were involved in each step of the analysis.

    A "cause-effect" correlation was applied, derived from the "dose-response" equation initially used in the biological sciences and then adapted by economists for the assessment of environmental risks. The relationship was analysed from a physical point of view and the cause (the natural event was correlated to the physical effects, i.e. the aesthetic, functional, and structural damage. An economic evaluation of direct and indirect damage was carried out considering the assets in the affected area (i.e., tourist flows, goods, transport and the effect on other social and economic activities. This study shows the importance of indirect damage, which is as significant as direct damage. The total amount of direct damage was estimated in 8 913 000 €; on the contrary, indirect

  19. Landslide risk analysis: a multi-disciplinary methodological approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sterlacchini, S.; Frigerio, S.; Giacomelli, P.; Brambilla, M.

    2007-11-01

    This study describes an analysis carried out within the European community project "ALARM" (Assessment of Landslide Risk and Mitigation in Mountain Areas, 2004) on landslide risk assessment in the municipality of Corvara in Badia, Italy. This mountainous area, located in the central Dolomites (Italian Alps), poses a significant landslide hazard to several man-made and natural objects. Three parameters for determining risk were analysed as an aid to preparedness and mitigation planning: event occurrence probability, elements at risk, and the vulnerability of these elements. Initially, a landslide hazard scenario was defined; this step was followed by the identification of the potential vulnerable elements, by the estimation of the expected physical effects, due to the occurrence of a damaging phenomenon, and by the analysis of social and economic features of the area. Finally, a potential risk scenario was defined, where the relationships between the event, its physical effects, and its economic consequences were investigated. People and public administrators with training and experience in local landsliding and slope processes were involved in each step of the analysis. A "cause-effect" correlation was applied, derived from the "dose-response" equation initially used in the biological sciences and then adapted by economists for the assessment of environmental risks. The relationship was analysed from a physical point of view and the cause (the natural event) was correlated to the physical effects, i.e. the aesthetic, functional, and structural damage. An economic evaluation of direct and indirect damage was carried out considering the assets in the affected area (i.e., tourist flows, goods, transport and the effect on other social and economic activities). This study shows the importance of indirect damage, which is as significant as direct damage. The total amount of direct damage was estimated in 8 913 000 €; on the contrary, indirect damage ranged considerably

  20. Analysis of risk factors in the development of retinopathy of prematurity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knezević, Sanja; Stojanović, Nadezda; Oros, Ana; Savić, Dragana; Simović, Aleksandra; Knezević, Jasmina

    2011-01-01

    Retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) is a multifactorial disease that occurs most frequently in very small and very sick preterm infants, and it has been identified as the major cause of childhood blindness. The aim of this study was to evaluate ROP incidence and risk factors associated with varying degrees of illness. The study was conducted at the Centre for Neonatology, Paediatric Clinic of the Clinical Centre Kragujevac, Serbia, in the period from June 2006 to December 2008. Ophthalmologic screening was performed in all children with body weight lower than 2000 g or gestational age lower than 36 weeks. We analyzed eighteen postnatal and six perinatal risk factors and the group correlations for each of the risk factors. Out of 317 children that were screened, 56 (17.7%) developed a mild form of ROP, while 68 (21.5%) developed a severe form. Univariate analysis revealed a large number of statistically significant risk factors for the development of ROP, especially the severe form. Multivariate logistical analysis further separated two independent risk factors: small birth weight (p = 0.001) and damage of central nervous system (p = 0.01). Independent risk factors for transition from mild to severe forms of ROP were identified as: small birth weight (p = 0.05) and perinatal risk factors (p = 0.02). Small birth weight and central nervous system damage were risk factors for the development of ROP, perinatal risk factors were identified as significant for transition from mild to severe form of ROP.

  1. Malaria Risk Factors in Kaligesing, Purworejo District, Central Java Province, Indonesia: A Case-control Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cahyaningrum, Pratiwi; Sulistyawati, Sulistyawati

    2018-05-01

    Malaria remains a public health concern worldwide, including Indonesia. Purworejo is a district in which endemic of malaria, they have re-setup to entering malaria elimination in 2021. Accordingly, actions must be taken to accelerate and guaranty that the goal will reach based on an understanding of the risk factors for malaria. Thus, we analysed malaria risk factors based on human and housing conditions in Kaligesing, Purworejo, Indonesia. A case-control study was carried out in Kaligesing subdistrict, Purworejo, Indonesia in July to August 2017. A structured questionnaire and checklist were used to collect data from 96 participants, who consisted of 48 controls and 48 cases. Univariate, bivariate, and multivariate analyses were performed. Bivariate analysis found that education level, the presence of a cattle cage within 100 m of the house, not sleeping under a bednet the previous night, and not closing the doors and windows from 6 p.m. to 5 a.m. were significantly ( p ≤0.25) associated with malaria. Of these factors, only not sleeping under a bednet the previous night and not closing the doors and windows from 6 p.m. to 5 a.m. were significantly associated with malaria. The findings of this study demonstrate that potential risk factor for Malaria should be paid of attention all the time, particularly for an area which is targeting Malaria elimination.

  2. Probabilistic methods in fire-risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brandyberry, M.D.

    1989-01-01

    The first part of this work outlines a method for assessing the frequency of ignition of a consumer product in a building and shows how the method would be used in an example scenario utilizing upholstered furniture as the product and radiant auxiliary heating devices (electric heaters, wood stoves) as the ignition source. Deterministic thermal models of the heat-transport processes are coupled with parameter uncertainty analysis of the models and with a probabilistic analysis of the events involved in a typical scenario. This leads to a distribution for the frequency of ignition for the product. In second part, fire-risk analysis as currently used in nuclear plants is outlines along with a discussion of the relevant uncertainties. The use of the computer code COMPBRN is discussed for use in the fire-growth analysis along with the use of response-surface methodology to quantify uncertainties in the code's use. Generalized response surfaces are developed for temperature versus time for a cable tray, as well as a surface for the hot gas layer temperature and depth for a room of arbitrary geometry within a typical nuclear power plant compartment. These surfaces are then used to simulate the cable tray damage time in a compartment fire experiment

  3. Optimizing prescribed fire allocation for managing fire risk in central Catalonia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alcasena, Fermín J; Ager, Alan A; Salis, Michele; Day, Michelle A; Vega-Garcia, Cristina

    2018-04-15

    We used spatial optimization to allocate and prioritize prescribed fire treatments in the fire-prone Bages County, central Catalonia (northeastern Spain). The goal of this study was to identify suitable strategic locations on forest lands for fuel treatments in order to: 1) disrupt major fire movements, 2) reduce ember emissions, and 3) reduce the likelihood of large fires burning into residential communities. We first modeled fire spread, hazard and exposure metrics under historical extreme fire weather conditions, including node influence grid for surface fire pathways, crown fraction burned and fire transmission to residential structures. Then, we performed an optimization analysis on individual planning areas to identify production possibility frontiers for addressing fire exposure and explore alternative prescribed fire treatment configurations. The results revealed strong trade-offs among different fire exposure metrics, showed treatment mosaics that optimize the allocation of prescribed fire, and identified specific opportunities to achieve multiple objectives. Our methods can contribute to improving the efficiency of prescribed fire treatment investments and wildfire management programs aimed at creating fire resilient ecosystems, facilitating safe and efficient fire suppression, and safeguarding rural communities from catastrophic wildfires. The analysis framework can be used to optimally allocate prescribed fire in other fire-prone areas within the Mediterranean region and elsewhere. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Structural analysis of a fractured basement reservoir, central Yemen

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veeningen, Resi; Rice, Hugh; Schneider, Dave; Grasemann, Bernhard; Decker, Kurt

    2013-04-01

    The Pan-African Arabian-Nubian Shield (ANS), within which Yemen lies, formed as a result of Neoproterozoic collisional events between c. 870-550 Ma. Several subsequent phases of extension occurred, from the Mesozoic (due to the breakup of Gondwana) to the Recent (forming the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea). These resulted in the formation of numerous horst- and-graben structures and the development of fractured basement reservoirs in the southeast part of the ANS. Two drill cores from the Mesozoic Marib-Shabwa Basin, central Yemen, penetrated the upper part of the Pan-African basement. The cores show both a lithological and structural inhomogeneity, with variations in extension-related deformation structures such as dilatational breccias, open fractures and closed veins. At least three deformation events have been recognized: D1) Ductile to brittle NW-SE directed faulting during cooling of a granitic pluton. U-Pb zircon ages revealed an upper age limit for granite emplacement at 627±3.5 Ma. As these structures show evidence for ductile deformation, this event must have occurred during the Ediacaran, shortly after intrusion, since Rb/Sr and (U-Th)/He analyses show that subsequent re-heating of the basement did not take place. D2) The development of shallow dipping, NNE-SSW striking extensional faults that formed during the Upper Jurassic, simultaneously with the formation of the Marib-Shabwa Basin. These fractures are regularly cross-cut by D3. D3) Steeply dipping NNE-SSW to ENE-WSW veins that are consistent with the orientation of the opening of the Gulf of Aden. These faults are the youngest structures recognized. The formation of ductile to brittle faults in the granite (D1) resulted in a hydrothermally altered zone ca. 30 cm wide replacing (mainly) plagioclase with predominantly chlorite, as well as kaolinite and heavy element minerals such as pyrite. The alteration- induced porosity has an average value of 20%, indicating that the altered zone is potentially a

  5. Risk as analysis and risk as feelings: some thoughts about affect, reason, risk, and rationality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slovic, Paul; Finucane, Melissa L; Peters, Ellen; MacGregor, Donald G

    2004-04-01

    Modern theories in cognitive psychology and neuroscience indicate that there are two fundamental ways in which human beings comprehend risk. The "analytic system" uses algorithms and normative rules, such as probability calculus, formal logic, and risk assessment. It is relatively slow, effortful, and requires conscious control. The "experiential system" is intuitive, fast, mostly automatic, and not very accessible to conscious awareness. The experiential system enabled human beings to survive during their long period of evolution and remains today the most natural and most common way to respond to risk. It relies on images and associations, linked by experience to emotion and affect (a feeling that something is good or bad). This system represents risk as a feeling that tells us whether it is safe to walk down this dark street or drink this strange-smelling water. Proponents of formal risk analysis tend to view affective responses to risk as irrational. Current wisdom disputes this view. The rational and the experiential systems operate in parallel and each seems to depend on the other for guidance. Studies have demonstrated that analytic reasoning cannot be effective unless it is guided by emotion and affect. Rational decision making requires proper integration of both modes of thought. Both systems have their advantages, biases, and limitations. Now that we are beginning to understand the complex interplay between emotion and reason that is essential to rational behavior, the challenge before us is to think creatively about what this means for managing risk. On the one hand, how do we apply reason to temper the strong emotions engendered by some risk events? On the other hand, how do we infuse needed "doses of feeling" into circumstances where lack of experience may otherwise leave us too "coldly rational"? This article addresses these important questions.

  6. An attempt to understand glioma stem cell biology through centrality analysis of a protein interaction network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mallik, Mrinmay Kumar

    2018-02-07

    Biological networks can be analyzed using "Centrality Analysis" to identify the more influential nodes and interactions in the network. This study was undertaken to create and visualize a biological network comprising of protein-protein interactions (PPIs) amongst proteins which are preferentially over-expressed in glioma cancer stem cell component (GCSC) of glioblastomas as compared to the glioma non-stem cancer cell (GNSC) component and then to analyze this network through centrality analyses (CA) in order to identify the essential proteins in this network and their interactions. In addition, this study proposes a new centrality analysis method pertaining exclusively to transcription factors (TFs) and interactions amongst them. Moreover the relevant molecular functions, biological processes and biochemical pathways amongst these proteins were sought through enrichment analysis. A protein interaction network was created using a list of proteins which have been shown to be preferentially expressed or over-expressed in GCSCs isolated from glioblastomas as compared to the GNSCs. This list comprising of 38 proteins, created using manual literature mining, was submitted to the Reactome FIViz tool, a web based application integrated into Cytoscape, an open source software platform for visualizing and analyzing molecular interaction networks and biological pathways to produce the network. This network was subjected to centrality analyses utilizing ranked lists of six centrality measures using the FIViz application and (for the first time) a dedicated centrality analysis plug-in ; CytoNCA. The interactions exclusively amongst the transcription factors were nalyzed through a newly proposed centrality analysis method called "Gene Expression Associated Degree Centrality Analysis (GEADCA)". Enrichment analysis was performed using the "network function analysis" tool on Reactome. The CA was able to identify a small set of proteins with consistently high centrality ranks that

  7. Overcoming barriers to integrating economic analysis into risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffmann, Sandra

    2011-09-01

    Regulatory risk analysis is designed to provide decisionmakers with a clearer understanding of how policies are likely to affect risk. The systems that produce risk are biological, physical, and social and economic. As a result, risk analysis is an inherently interdisciplinary task. Yet in practice, risk analysis has been interdisciplinary in only limited ways. Risk analysis could provide more accurate assessments of risk if there were better integration of economics and other social sciences into risk assessment itself. This essay examines how discussions about risk analysis policy have influenced the roles of various disciplines in risk analysis. It explores ways in which integrated bio/physical-economic modeling could contribute to more accurate assessments of risk. It reviews examples of the kind of integrated economics-bio/physical modeling that could be used to enhance risk assessment. The essay ends with a discussion of institutional barriers to greater integration of economic modeling into risk assessment and provides suggestions on how these might be overcome. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  8. Economic analysis and management of climatic risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hourcade, J.C. (Centre International de Recherche sur l' Environnement et le Developpement, 92 - Montrouge (France))

    1994-01-01

    This paper aims at framing the collective decision problem in the face of climate change. It shows why it would be irrelevant to handle it in the form of a classical decision under uncertainty framework where a cost-benefit analysis is carried out including probability distribution on damages and risk aversion coefficients. A sequential approach to policy making is then proposed as an alternative in order to account for the inertia of socio-economic dynamics and the value of information. A simple model illustrates the gap between these two approaches; it shows the importance of combining the investments on climatic research, innovation policies and so-called 'no regret' short term decisions. It shows the fact that, even if they can be considered as quantitatively moderate, these potentials have a critical impact on long term viability of development; they embed a very high information value, lengthening the learning time vis-a-vis potentially major but controversial risks. (author). 21 refs., 3 figs.

  9. Risk oriented analysis of the SNR-300

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koeberlein, K.

    1982-01-01

    The Fact Finding Committee on 'Future Nuclear Power Policy' established by the 8th German Federal Parliament in its report of June 1980 among other items published the recommendation to commission a 'risk oriented analysis' of the SNR-300 in order to enable a pragmatic comparison to be made of the safety of the German prototype fast breeder reactor and a modern light water reactor (a Biblis B PWR). The Federal Minister for Research and Technology in August 1981 officially commissioned the Gesellschaft fuer Reaktorsicherheit (GRS) to conduct the study. Following a recommendation by the Fact Finding Committee, additional studies were performed also by a group of opponents of the breeder reactor. On the instigation of the group of opponents the delivery date of the study was altered several times and finally set at April 30, 1982. GRS submitted its report by this deadline. However, a joint report by the two groups could not be compiled, as had been requested by the client, because the contributions of the opponents were not made available until mid-May 1982 and then only as an 'interim report'. In summary, the GRS study indicates that the frequency and severity of major accidents is lower for the SNR-300 at the Kalkar site than for a PWR as covered in the German Nuclear Power Plant Risk Study. (orig.) [de

  10. Development of probabilistic risk analysis library

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soga, Shota; Kirimoto, Yukihiro; Kanda, Kenichi

    2015-01-01

    We developed a library that is designed to perform level 1 Probabilistic Risk Analysis using Binary Decision Diagram (BDD). In particular, our goal is to develop a library that will allow Japanese electric utilities to take the advantages of BDD that can solve Event Tree (ET) and Fault Tree (FT) models analytically. Using BDD, the library supports negation in FT which allows more flexible modeling of ET/FT. The library is written by C++ within an object-oriented framework using open source software. The library itself is a header-only library so that Japanese electric utilities can take advantages of its transparency to speed up development and to build their own software for their specific needs. In this report, the basic capabilities of the library is briefly described. In addition, several applications of the library are demonstrated including validation of MCS evaluation of PRA model and evaluation of corrective and preventive maintenance considering common cause failure. (author)

  11. Who is populist in Central and Eastern Europe? A comparative analysis of prime ministers' populist discourse

    OpenAIRE

    Kocijan, Bojana

    2015-01-01

    This article measures populist discourse among prime ministers in new Central and Eastern European democracies using holistic grading as a specific type of textual analysis. The article first offers a definition of populism and then measures political discourse by grading political speeches of contemporary prime ministers in Central and Eastern Europe. Next, it presents descriptive data about prime ministers’ political discourse and discusses positive cases of populism in re...

  12. Risk factors for HIV infection among female sex workers in Bangui, Central African Republic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Longo, Jean De Dieu; Simaleko, Marcel Mbeko; Diemer, Henri Saint-Calvaire; Grésenguet, Gérard; Brücker, Gilles; Belec, Laurent

    2017-01-01

    The aims of the study were i) to categorize female sex workers (FSW) according to socio-anthropologic criteria in Bangui; ii) to examine the association between a selection of demographic and risk variables with the different categories of female sex work as outcome, and iii) to investigate factors associated with HIV status. A cross-sectional questionnaire survey was conducted to describe the spectrum of commercial sex work in Bangui among 345 sexually active women. After collection of social and behavioral characteristics, each woman received a physical examination and a blood sample was taken for biological analyses, including HIV testing. The relationships between sociodemographic characteristics, behavioral variables involved in high risk for HIV as well as biological results were investigated by bivariate analysis in relationship with FSW categories as main outcomes, and by bivariate analysis followed by multivariate logistic regression analysis in relationship with HIV as the main outcome. The strength of statistical associations was measured by crude and adjusted Odds ratios (OR) and their 95% confidence intervals. The typology of FSW comprised six different categories. Two groups were the "official" professional FSW primarily classified according to their locations of work [i) "kata"(18.55%) representing women working in poor neighborhoods of Bangui; ii) "pupulenge" (13.91%) working in hotels and night clubs to seek white men]. Four groups were "clandestine" nonprofessional FSW classified according to their reported main activity [i) "market and street vendors" (20.86%); ii) "schoolgirls or students" (19.13%) involved in occasional transactional sex (during holidays); iii) "housewives or unemployed women" (15.65%); iv) "civil servants" (11.88%) working as soldiers or in the public sector]. The overall prevalence of HIV-1 was 19.12% (66/345). HIV varied according to FSW categories. Thus, among professional FSW, the HIV prevalence was 6-fold higher in "kata

  13. Application of IEUBK model in lead risk assessment of children aged 61–84 months old in central China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Yanyan [MOE Key Lab of Environment and Health, Institute of Environmental Medicine, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science & Technology, Wuhan, Hubei (China); Hu, Jia [Suzhou Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Suzhou, Jiangsu (China); Wu, Wei [MOE Key Lab of Environment and Health, Institute of Environmental Medicine, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science & Technology, Wuhan, Hubei (China); Liu, Shuyun [Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science & Technology, Wuhan, Hubei (China); Li, Mei [Hanyang Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Wuhan, Hubei (China); Yao, Na; Chen, Jianwei [MOE Key Lab of Environment and Health, Institute of Environmental Medicine, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science & Technology, Wuhan, Hubei (China); Ye, Linxiang [Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science & Technology, Wuhan, Hubei (China); Wang, Qi, E-mail: lwq95@126.com [MOE Key Lab of Environment and Health, Institute of Environmental Medicine, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science & Technology, Wuhan, Hubei (China); Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science & Technology, Wuhan, Hubei (China); Zhou, Yikai, E-mail: zhouyk@mails.tjmu.edu.cn [MOE Key Lab of Environment and Health, Institute of Environmental Medicine, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science & Technology, Wuhan, Hubei (China)

    2016-01-15

    Few studies have focused on the accuracy of using the Integrated Exposure Uptake Biokinetic (IEUBK) model in Chinese children with site- and age-specific exposure data. This study aimed to validate the accuracy and sensitivity of the IEUBK model in lead risk assessment of Chinese children aged 61–84 months old. A total of 760 children were enrolled from two respective counties in Central China by using random cluster sampling method. Blood lead levels (BLLs) of all subjects were determined using graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry, as well as that in the environmental media, such as air, drinking water, soil, dust and food. Age- and site-specific time-activity patterns and water consumption were evaluated by using questionnaires for children. Exposure parameters including outdoor and indoor activity time, ventilation rate and water consumption in this study were different from the default values of the IEUBK model. Statistical analysis revealed no significant differences between the predicted and observed BLLs. Diet and soil/dust lead intake contributed approximately 83.39% (57.40%–93.84% range) and 15.18% (3.25%–41.60% range) of total lead intake, respectively. These findings showed that the IEUBK model is suitable for lead risk assessment of Chinese children aged 61–84 months old and diet acts as an important lead source. - Highlights: • The first time to fit and discuss the IEUBK model in China based on comprehensive local children exposure parameters. • Two different exposure scenarios to apply the IEUBK model in different conditions. • The first time to report the ventilation rate in Chinese children aged 61 to 84 months. • Highlight the role of dietary to lead intake for Chinese children.

  14. Application of IEUBK model in lead risk assessment of children aged 61–84 months old in central China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Yanyan; Hu, Jia; Wu, Wei; Liu, Shuyun; Li, Mei; Yao, Na; Chen, Jianwei; Ye, Linxiang; Wang, Qi; Zhou, Yikai

    2016-01-01

    Few studies have focused on the accuracy of using the Integrated Exposure Uptake Biokinetic (IEUBK) model in Chinese children with site- and age-specific exposure data. This study aimed to validate the accuracy and sensitivity of the IEUBK model in lead risk assessment of Chinese children aged 61–84 months old. A total of 760 children were enrolled from two respective counties in Central China by using random cluster sampling method. Blood lead levels (BLLs) of all subjects were determined using graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry, as well as that in the environmental media, such as air, drinking water, soil, dust and food. Age- and site-specific time-activity patterns and water consumption were evaluated by using questionnaires for children. Exposure parameters including outdoor and indoor activity time, ventilation rate and water consumption in this study were different from the default values of the IEUBK model. Statistical analysis revealed no significant differences between the predicted and observed BLLs. Diet and soil/dust lead intake contributed approximately 83.39% (57.40%–93.84% range) and 15.18% (3.25%–41.60% range) of total lead intake, respectively. These findings showed that the IEUBK model is suitable for lead risk assessment of Chinese children aged 61–84 months old and diet acts as an important lead source. - Highlights: • The first time to fit and discuss the IEUBK model in China based on comprehensive local children exposure parameters. • Two different exposure scenarios to apply the IEUBK model in different conditions. • The first time to report the ventilation rate in Chinese children aged 61 to 84 months. • Highlight the role of dietary to lead intake for Chinese children.

  15. Central obesity and risk for type 2 diabetes in Maori, Pacific and European young men in New Zealand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rush, E.; Laulu, M.S.; Mitchelson, E.; Plank, L.

    2002-01-01

    Thirty healthy male volunteers between the ages of 18 and 27 and of a wide range of fatness were recruited for this study. Equal numbers (10) self identified as belonging to each of the Maori Pacific and European ethnic groups. Originally it was intended that 90 men(30 in each group) should be measured but the cost and availability of the doubly-labelled water prevented this. Specific measurements undertaken included resting metabolic rate by indirect calorimetry, total energy expenditure over 14 days by the doubly-labelled water technique; total and regional body fat from dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry; anthropometry (body mass index, skinfold thicknesses and girths); fat and carbohydrate utilisation from respiratory quotients and from carbon-13 analysis of expired breath; and dietary intake of macronutrients. Glucose tolerance, insulin, thyroid hormone, leptin and blood lipid determinations were also performed. The groups did not differ significantly in BMI, height body mass or fat mass - but the European group had significantly lower subscapular to triceps skinfolds and fat free mass than the Maori and Pacific group. Resting metabolic rate adjusted for fat mass and fat free mass was not different among the groups. Carbon-13 in expired breath was positively correlated to the subscapular to triceps skinfold ratio and insulin. Reported intake of dietary fibre was negatively related to blood lipids and subscapular to triceps skinfold ratio. Central obesity showed strong associations with biochemical measures of Type 2 diabetes risk These findings emphasise the relationships between body composition and fat distribution with risk of diabetes independent of ethnicity. (author)

  16. Central obesity and risk for type 2 diabetes in Maori, Pacific and European young men in New Zealand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rush, E; Laulu, M S [Department of Applied Science, Auckland Institute of Technology, Auckland (New Zealand); Mitchelson, E [Department of Nursing, Unitec Institute of Technology, Auckland (New Zealand); Plank, L [Department of Surgery, School of Medicine, University of Auckland, Auckland (New Zealand)

    2002-07-01

    Thirty healthy male volunteers between the ages of 18 and 27 and of a wide range of fatness were recruited for this study. Equal numbers (10) self identified as belonging to each of the Maori Pacific and European ethnic groups. Originally it was intended that 90 men(30 in each group) should be measured but the cost and availability of the doubly-labelled water prevented this. Specific measurements undertaken included resting metabolic rate by indirect calorimetry, total energy expenditure over 14 days by the doubly-labelled water technique; total and regional body fat from dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry; anthropometry (body mass index, skinfold thicknesses and girths); fat and carbohydrate utilisation from respiratory quotients and from carbon-13 analysis of expired breath; and dietary intake of macronutrients. Glucose tolerance, insulin, thyroid hormone, leptin and blood lipid determinations were also performed. The groups did not differ significantly in BMI, height body mass or fat mass - but the European group had significantly lower subscapular to triceps skinfolds and fat free mass than the Maori and Pacific group. Resting metabolic rate adjusted for fat mass and fat free mass was not different among the groups. Carbon-13 in expired breath was positively correlated to the subscapular to triceps skinfold ratio and insulin. Reported intake of dietary fibre was negatively related to blood lipids and subscapular to triceps skinfold ratio. Central obesity showed strong associations with biochemical measures of Type 2 diabetes risk These findings emphasise the relationships between body composition and fat distribution with risk of diabetes independent of ethnicity. (author)

  17. Analysis of uncertainty in modeling perceived risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Melnyk, R.; Sandquist, G.M.

    2005-01-01

    Expanding on a mathematical model developed for quantifying and assessing perceived risks, the distribution functions, variances, and uncertainties associated with estimating the model parameters are quantified. The analytical model permits the identification and assignment of any number of quantifiable risk perception factors that can be incorporated within standard risk methodology. Those risk perception factors associated with major technical issues are modeled using lognormal probability density functions to span the potentially large uncertainty variations associated with these risk perceptions. The model quantifies the logic of public risk perception and provides an effective means for measuring and responding to perceived risks. (authors)

  18. Risk of chromosomal abnormalities in early spontaneous abortion after assisted reproductive technology: a meta-analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun-Zhen Qin

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Studies on the risk of chromosomal abnormalities in early spontaneous abortion after assisted reproductive technology (ART are relatively controversial and insufficient. Thus, to obtain a more precise evaluation of the risk of embryonic chromosomal abnormalities in first-trimester miscarriage after ART, we performed a meta-analysis of all available case-control studies relating to the cytogenetic analysis of chromosomal abnormalities in first-trimester miscarriage after ART. METHODS: Literature search in the electronic databases MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL based on the established strategy. Meta-regression, subgroup analysis, and Galbraith plots were conducted to explore the sources of heterogeneity. RESULTS: A total of 15 studies with 1,896 cases and 1,186 controls relevant to the risk of chromosomal abnormalities in first- trimester miscarriage after ART, and 8 studies with 601 cases and 602 controls evaluating frequency of chromosome anomaly for maternal age≥35 versus <35 were eligible for the meta-analysis. No statistical difference was found in risk of chromosomally abnormal miscarriage compared to natural conception and the different types of ART utilized, whereas the risk of fetal aneuploidy significantly increased with maternal age≥35 (OR 2.88, 95% CI: 1.74-4.77. CONCLUSIONS: ART treatment does not present an increased risk for chromosomal abnormalities occurring in a first trimester miscarriage, but incidence of fetal aneuploidy could increase significantly with advancing maternal age.

  19. Risk Analysis for Performance Improvement in a Romanian Pharmaceutical Company

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dana Corina Deselnicu

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents risk management analysis carried out to investigate the operations of a Romanian company dealing with the distribution of pharmaceutical products. The main risks challenging the company were identified, described and classified, providing a scientific base for further analysis. Then, the identified inherent risks were evaluated using tools as the risk index method and the risk matrix in order to emphasize their tolerance level. According to the results of the evaluation, risk mitigation strategies and measures were advanced for the management of the analysed risks. Relevant conclusions were drawn from the experience.

  20. Incidence and risk factors for central nervous system relapse in children and adolescents with acute lymphoblastic leukemia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cancela, Camila Silva Peres; Murao, Mitiko; Viana, Marcos Borato; de Oliveira, Benigna Maria

    2012-01-01

    Background Despite all the advances in the treatment of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia, central nervous system relapse remains an important obstacle to curing these patients. This study analyzed the incidence of central nervous system relapse and the risk factors for its occurrence in children and adolescents with acute lymphoblastic leukemia. Methods This study has a retrospective cohort design. The studied population comprised 199 children and adolescents with a diagnosis of acute lymphoblastic leukemia followed up at Hospital das Clinicas, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (HC-UFMG) between March 2001 and August 2009 and submitted to the Grupo Brasileiro de Tratamento de Leucemia da Infância - acute lymphoblastic leukemia (GBTLI-LLA-99) treatment protocol. Results The estimated probabilities of overall survival and event free survival at 5 years were 69.5% (± 3.6%) and 58.8% (± 4.0%), respectively. The cumulative incidence of central nervous system (isolated or combined) relapse was 11.0% at 8 years. The estimated rate of isolated central nervous system relapse at 8 years was 6.8%. In patients with a blood leukocyte count at diagnosis ≥ 50 x 109/L, the estimated rate of isolated or combined central nervous system relapse was higher than in the group with a count 50 x 109/L at diagnosis seems to be a significant prognostic factor for a higher incidence of central nervous system relapse in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia. PMID:23323068

  1. ANALYSIS AND MANAGEMENT RISK IN INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS

    OpenAIRE

    Lăpăduşi Mihaela Loredana,; Căruntu Constantin

    2009-01-01

    The risk is one of the most controversial issues for all persons involved both in domestic and international world economic affairs. The need to analyze, understand and effectively manage risk is growing, the ultimate aim being to obtain a higher degree of successThe risk means exposure to an uncertain future, the opportunity to face danger or suffering a loss ( "Risk - possibility of loss or injury", Webster's, 1995) or the chance that things go wrong ( "Risk is the change that something wil...

  2. Insurability of Cyber Risk: An Empirical Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Biener, Christian; Eling, Martin; Wirfs, Jan Hendrik

    2015-01-01

    This paper discusses the adequacy of insurance for managing cyber risk. To this end, we extract 994 cases of cyber losses from an operational risk database and analyse their statistical properties. Based on the empirical results and recent literature, we investigate the insurability of cyber risk by systematically reviewing the set of criteria introduced by Berliner (1982). Our findings emphasise the distinct characteristics of cyber risks compared with other operational risks and bring to li...

  3. HANFORD SAFETY ANALYSIS & RISK ASSESSMENT HANDBOOK (SARAH)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    EVANS, C B

    2004-12-21

    The purpose of the Hanford Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) is to support the development of safety basis documentation for Hazard Category 2 and 3 (HC-2 and 3) U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear facilities to meet the requirements of 10 CFR 830, ''Nuclear Safety Management''. Subpart B, ''Safety Basis Requirements.'' Consistent with DOE-STD-3009-94, Change Notice 2, ''Preparation Guide for U.S. Department of Energy Nonreactor Nuclear Facility Documented Safety Analyses'' (STD-3009), and DOE-STD-3011-2002, ''Guidance for Preparation of Basis for Interim Operation (BIO) Documents'' (STD-3011), the Hanford SARAH describes methodology for performing a safety analysis leading to development of a Documented Safety Analysis (DSA) and derivation of Technical Safety Requirements (TSR), and provides the information necessary to ensure a consistently rigorous approach that meets DOE expectations. The DSA and TSR documents, together with the DOE-issued Safety Evaluation Report (SER), are the basic components of facility safety basis documentation. For HC-2 or 3 nuclear facilities in long-term surveillance and maintenance (S&M), for decommissioning activities, where source term has been eliminated to the point that only low-level, residual fixed contamination is present, or for environmental remediation activities outside of a facility structure, DOE-STD-1120-98, ''Integration of Environment, Safety, and Health into Facility Disposition Activities'' (STD-1120), may serve as the basis for the DSA. HC-2 and 3 environmental remediation sites also are subject to the hazard analysis methodologies of this standard.

  4. Incidence and risk factors for central venous access port-related infection in Chinese cancer patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ting-Yao Wang

    2015-11-01

    Conclusion: Infection remains to be a challenging issue for totally implantable central venous ports. Implementation of an insertion bundle for the prevention of central line-associated bloodstream infections is warranted, especially for those patients with hematological and head and neck cancers, as well as for patients receiving chemotherapy in the metastatic settings.

  5. Centralization versus decentralization as a risk-return trade-off

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arcuri, A.; Dari-Mattiacci, G.

    2010-01-01

    This paper characterizes the choice between centralization and decentralization as a risk‐return trade‐off and examines it in a model that integrates ideas from committee decision‐making and portfolio theories. Centralization, by pooling expertise, rarely yields erroneous decisions; however, when it

  6. 49 CFR 260.17 - Credit risk premium analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Credit risk premium analysis. 260.17 Section 260... Financial Assistance § 260.17 Credit risk premium analysis. (a) When Federal appropriations are not available to cover the total subsidy cost, the Administrator will determine the Credit Risk Premium...

  7. Quantitative analysis of residual protein contamination of podiatry instruments reprocessed through local and central decontamination units

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramage Gordon

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The cleaning stage of the instrument decontamination process has come under increased scrutiny due to the increasing complexity of surgical instruments and the adverse affects of residual protein contamination on surgical instruments. Instruments used in the podiatry field have a complex surface topography and are exposed to a wide range of biological contamination. Currently, podiatry instruments are reprocessed locally within surgeries while national strategies are favouring a move toward reprocessing in central facilities. The aim of this study was to determine the efficacy of local and central reprocessing on podiatry instruments by measuring residual protein contamination of instruments reprocessed by both methods. Methods The residual protein of 189 instruments reprocessed centrally and 189 instruments reprocessed locally was determined using a fluorescent assay based on the reaction of proteins with o-phthaldialdehyde/sodium 2-mercaptoethanesulfonate. Results Residual protein was detected on 72% (n = 136 of instruments reprocessed centrally and 90% (n = 170 of instruments reprocessed locally. Significantly less protein (p Conclusions Overall, the results show the superiority of central reprocessing for complex podiatry instruments when protein contamination is considered, though no significant difference was found in residual protein between local decontamination unit and central decontamination unit processes for Blacks files. Further research is needed to undertake qualitative identification of protein contamination to identify any cross contamination risks and a standard for acceptable residual protein contamination applicable to different instruments and specialities should be considered as a matter of urgency.

  8. Integration of risk analysis, land use planning, and cost analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rajen, G.; Sanchez, G.

    1994-01-01

    The Department of Energy (DOE) and the Pueblo of San Ildefonso (Pueblo), which is a sovereign Indian tribe, have often been involved in adversarial situations regarding the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The Pueblo shares a common boundary with the LANL. This paper describes an on-going project that could alter the DOE and the Pueblo's relationship to one of cooperation; and unite the DOE and the Pueblo in a Pollution Prevention/Waste Minimization, and Integrated Risk Analysis and Land Use Planning effort

  9. Risk uncertainty analysis methods for NUREG-1150

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benjamin, A.S.; Boyd, G.J.

    1987-01-01

    Evaluation and display of risk uncertainties for NUREG-1150 constitute a principal focus of the Severe Accident Risk Rebaselining/Risk Reduction Program (SARRP). Some of the principal objectives of the uncertainty evaluation are: (1) to provide a quantitative estimate that reflects, for those areas considered, a credible and realistic range of uncertainty in risk; (2) to rank the various sources of uncertainty with respect to their importance for various measures of risk; and (3) to characterize the state of understanding of each aspect of the risk assessment for which major uncertainties exist. This paper describes the methods developed to fulfill these objectives

  10. Conceptual risk assessment framework for global change risk analysis SRP

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Elphinstone, CD

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available on two of the most important underlying factors supporting the ecosystem: productivity and hypoxia afiecting harmful algae blooms (HABs) and the rock lobsters. The risk regimes are a function of two time scales | a ‘high’ wind stress in early summer... is a condition which can lead to various negative impacts depending on the particular marine life, for instance rock lobsters stranding. The exact deflnitions of the two seasonal occurrences resulting in the risk event, ‘high’ wind stress in ‘early...

  11. Multiple Sclerosis Increases Fracture Risk: A Meta-Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guixian Dong

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. The association between multiple sclerosis (MS and fracture risk has been reported, but results of previous studies remain controversial and ambiguous. To assess the association between MS and fracture risk, a meta-analysis was performed. Method. Based on comprehensive searches of the PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science, we identified outcome data from all articles estimating the association between MS and fracture risk. The pooled risk ratios (RRs with 95% confidence intervals (CIs were calculated. Results. A significant association between MS and fracture risk was found. This result remained statistically significant when the adjusted RRs were combined. Subgroup analysis stratified by the site of fracture suggested significant associations between MS and tibia fracture risk, femur fracture risk, hip fracture risk, pelvis fracture risk, vertebrae fracture risk, and humerus fracture risk. In the subgroup analysis by gender, female MS patients had increased fracture risk. When stratified by history of drug use, use of antidepressants, hypnotics/anxiolytics, anticonvulsants, and glucocorticoids increased the risk of fracture risk in MS patients. Conclusions. This meta-analysis demonstrated that MS was significantly associated with fracture risk.

  12. Technical Overview of Ecological Risk Assessment - Analysis Phase: Exposure Characterization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Exposure Characterization is the second major component of the analysis phase of a risk assessment. For a pesticide risk assessment, the exposure characterization describes the potential or actual contact of a pesticide with a plant, animal, or media.

  13. Ex-Vessel Steam Explosion Analysis of Central Melt Pour Scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ursic, M.; Leskovar, M.

    2008-01-01

    An ex-vessel steam explosion may develop during a severe reactor accident when the reactor vessel fails and the molten core interacts with the coolant in the reactor cavity. At this process part of the corium energy is intensively transferred to water in a very short time scale. The water vaporizes at high pressure and expands, doing work on its surrounding. Although the steam explosion has probably a low probability of occurrence, it is an important nuclear safety issue in case of a severe reactor accident. Namely, the formed very high pressure region induces dynamic loadings on the surrounding structures that may potentially lead to an early release of the radioactive material into the environment. Although the steam explosion events have being studied for several years, the level of the process and consequences understanding is still not adequate. To increase the level of confidence the OECD programme SERENA (Steam Explosion REsolution for Nuclear Applications) was established in 2002. The objectives of the program were to evaluate capabilities of the current generation of the FCI (Fuel-Coolant Interaction) computer codes in predicting the steam explosion induced loads, identifying key FCI phenomena and associated uncertainties impacting the predictability of the steam explosion energetics in the reactor situations and proposing confirmatory research to reduce the uncertainties to acceptable levels for the steam explosion risk assessment. To get a better insight into the most challenging ex-vessel steam explosions, analyses for different locations of the melt release, the cavity water sub-cooling, the primary system pressure overpressure and the triggering time were preformed for a typical pressurized water reactor cavity. The results of some scenarios revealed that significantly higher pressure loads are predicted than obtained in the OECD programme SERENA Phase 1. Among the performed analyses for the central melt pour scenarios, the maximum pressure loads were

  14. Household risk factors associated to infestation of Triatoma dimidiata, the Chagas disease vector in Central Region of Veracruz, Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    César A Sandoval-Ruiz

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Objective. To evaluate risk factors facilitating the colonization of dwellings by Triatoma dimidiata in the central region of the state of Veracruz. Materials and methods. We applied socioeconomic questionnaires and entomologic surveys in three localities (Chavarrillo, Soyacuautla and Arroyo Agrio in central Veracruz involving 115 households. Results. We found that the main risk factors were the predominance of unplastered walls and particularly those made of light weight aggregate concrete blocks and wood. At Chavarrillo, houses usually have unplastered walls, whereas in Soyocuautla walls are commonly manufactured with wood. In Arroyo Agrio, the phenomenon was seasonal, and bugs were commonly found in the dry season, particularly in relatively new houses, less than 20 years old. Conclusions. These results help to improve the surveillance capacity for this vector and the control strategies to reduce the transmission of Chagas disease in the state of Veracruz and other sites where this species is present.

  15. Structural reliability analysis applied to pipeline risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gardiner, M. [GL Industrial Services, Loughborough (United Kingdom); Mendes, Renato F.; Donato, Guilherme V.P. [PETROBRAS S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) of pipelines requires two main components to be provided. These are models of the consequences that follow from some loss of containment incident, and models for the likelihood of such incidents occurring. This paper describes how PETROBRAS have used Structural Reliability Analysis for the second of these, to provide pipeline- and location-specific predictions of failure frequency for a number of pipeline assets. This paper presents an approach to estimating failure rates for liquid and gas pipelines, using Structural Reliability Analysis (SRA) to analyze the credible basic mechanisms of failure such as corrosion and mechanical damage. SRA is a probabilistic limit state method: for a given failure mechanism it quantifies the uncertainty in parameters to mathematical models of the load-resistance state of a structure and then evaluates the probability of load exceeding resistance. SRA can be used to benefit the pipeline risk management process by optimizing in-line inspection schedules, and as part of the design process for new construction in pipeline rights of way that already contain multiple lines. A case study is presented to show how the SRA approach has recently been used on PETROBRAS pipelines and the benefits obtained from it. (author)

  16. Contribution for tier 1 of the ecological risk assessment of Cunha Baixa uranium mine (Central Portugal): I Soil chemical characterization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pereira, R.; Antunes, S.C.; Marques, S.M.; Goncalves, F.

    2008-01-01

    Within the tier 1 of a site specific risk assessment, the pseudo-total concentrations (extracted with aqua regia) and the potential mobile fractions of metals were determined to perform a preliminary evaluation of risks posed by contaminated soils from an abandoned uranium mine (Mangualde, Central Portugal). Considering the mobile fractions of metals, extracted with artificial rain water, aluminium and uranium were the most concerning elements, since their concentrations were above soil quality criteria values (SQGVs) established for both elements. However, according to the evaluation based on potential mobile fractions of elements, rather than on pseudo-total metal concentrations the risks were limited to sites within the exploitation area, where contamination derives mainly from past in-situ leaching activities of pore ore as well as from the deposition of sludge from the effluent pond. The exclusion of other sites under evaluation, from the risk assessment process, requires additional data provided by soil screening ecotoxicological assays

  17. [Infestation status Aedes albopictus and related mosquito-borne infectious disease risk in central urban area in Shanghai].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Q; Xiong, C L; Zhou, Y B; Cao, H; Jiang, Q W

    2016-05-01

    To evaluate Aedes albopictus infestation status in the central urban area of Shanghai, and analyze the related epidemic risk of mosquito-borne infectious disease. Consecutive mosquito surveillance was conducted in the green lands and residential areas in the central urban area of Shanghai during 2012-2014, the Aedes albopictus density and its seasonal fluctuation were observed; the sequence of Aedes albopictus in Shanghai was aligned with that in other epidemic area abroad, and the susceptibility of Aedes albopictus to mosquito-borne virus and endemic risk were analyzed. No Aedes aegypti was found in the central urban area of Shanghai. As predominant species in both the residential area and the green lands, the proportion of Aedes albopictus in the residential area was significantly higher than that in the green lands(78.53% vs. 19.99%, χ(2) =15 525.168, PAedes albopictus in Shanghai and Aedes albopictus in Africa was quite far. No Aedes aegypti was found in Shanghai and its surrounding areas, while Aedes albopictus infestation in the central urban area of Shanghai was serious. Strict measures should be taken to reduce the Aedes albopictus density for the effective control Zika virus spread.

  18. A Roadmap of Risk Diagnostic Methods: Developing an Integrated View of Risk Identification and Analysis Techniques

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Williams, Ray; Ambrose, Kate; Bentrem, Laura

    2004-01-01

    ...), which is envisioned to be a comprehensive reference tool for risk identification and analysis (RI AND A) techniques. Program Managers (PMs) responsible for developing or acquiring software-intensive systems typically identify risks in different ways...

  19. Chemical risk evaluation, importance of the risk analysis framework uses: Latin America development restrictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carrillo, M.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation is about reach and results of the risk analysis in Venezuela, chemical dangers in food, human damage, injuries , technologies news in fodd development, toxicity, microbiological risk, technical recommendations

  20. Occupational and environmental risk assessment problems in central European countries, needs and what has been achieved - Poland as an example

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Suklowski, Tadeusz

    1992-07-01

    The externally imposed system of planified economy inhibited the development of methods of risk assessment in the countries of Central Europe. The trends in using the experience of other countries and the help of foreign experts is determining realistic hygienic norms at the workplace, limiting the hazards for the natural environment, increasing the safety of industrial installations and transporting dangerous substances will be discussed. (author)

  1. Occupational and environmental risk assessment problems in central European countries, needs and what has been achieved - Poland as an example

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suklowski, Tadeusz

    1992-01-01

    The externally imposed system of planified economy inhibited the development of methods of risk assessment in the countries of Central Europe. The trends in using the experience of other countries and the help of foreign experts is determining realistic hygienic norms at the workplace, limiting the hazards for the natural environment, increasing the safety of industrial installations and transporting dangerous substances will be discussed. (author)

  2. Central hypothyroidism and its role for cardiovascular risk factors in hypopituitary patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Feldt-Rasmussen, Ulla; Klose, Marianne

    2016-01-01

    limitations given vast difficulties in diagnosing the condition correctly biochemically, and difficulties monitoring the treatment because normal thyroid-pituitary feedback interrelationships are disrupted. The present review summarizes available studies of central adult hypothyroidism and its possible......Hypothyroidism is characterized by hypometabolism, and may be seen as a part of secondary failure due to pituitary insufficiency or tertiary due to hypothalamic disease. Secondary and tertiary failures are also referred to as central hypothyroidism. Whereas overt primary hypothyroidism has a well......-known affection on the heart and cardiovascular system, and may result in cardiac failure, cardiovascular affection is less well recognized in central hypothyroidism. Studies on central hypothyroidism and cardiovascular outcome are few and given the rarity of the diseases often small. Further, there are several...

  3. Central hypothyroidism and its role for cardiovascular risk factors in hypopituitary patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feldt-Rasmussen, Ulla; Klose, Marianne

    2016-10-01

    Hypothyroidism is characterized by hypometabolism, and may be seen as a part of secondary failure due to pituitary insufficiency or tertiary due to hypothalamic disease. Secondary and tertiary failures are also referred to as central hypothyroidism. Whereas overt primary hypothyroidism has a well-known affection on the heart and cardiovascular system, and may result in cardiac failure, cardiovascular affection is less well recognized in central hypothyroidism. Studies on central hypothyroidism and cardiovascular outcome are few and given the rarity of the diseases often small. Further, there are several limitations given vast difficulties in diagnosing the condition correctly biochemically, and difficulties monitoring the treatment because normal thyroid-pituitary feedback interrelationships are disrupted. The present review summarizes available studies of central adult hypothyroidism and its possible influence on the cardiovascular system, describe differences from primary thyroid failure and seek evidence for performing guidelines for clinical management of this particular thyroid and hypothalamo-pituitary disorder.

  4. Spatial Characteristics, Health Risk Assessment and Sustainable Management of Heavy Metals and Metalloids in Soils from Central China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fei Li

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The contents of seven toxic metals (Cu, Cr, Cd, Zn, Pb, Hg and As in soils from Central China, including Henan Province, Hubei Province and Hunan Province, were collected from published papers from 2007 to 2017. The geoaccumulation index, health risk assessment model and statistics were adopted to study the spatial contamination pattern, to assess the human health risks and to identify the priority control pollutants. The concentrations of soil metals in Central China, especially Cd (1.31 mg/kg, Pb (44.43 mg/kg and Hg (0.19 mg/kg, surpassed their corresponding background values, and the Igeo values of Cd and Hg varied the most, ranging from the unpolluted level to the extremely polluted level. The concentrations of toxic metals were higher in the southern and northern parts of Central China, contrasting to the lowest contents in the middle parts. For non-carcinogenic risk, the hazard index (HI values for the children in Hubei Province (1.10 and Hunan Province (1.41 exceeded the safe level of one, with higher health risks to children than adults, and the hazard quotient (HQ values of the three exposure pathways for both children and adults in Central China decreased in the following order: ingestion > dermal contact > inhalation. For carcinogenic risk (CR, the CR values for children in Hubei Province (2.55 × 10−4, Hunan Province (3.44 × 10−4 and Henan Province (1.69 × 10−4, and the CR for adults in Hubei Province (3.67 × 10−5, Hunan Province (4.92 × 10−5 and Henan Province (2.45 × 10−5 exceeded the unacceptable level (10−4 and acceptable level (10−6, respectively. Arsenic (As appeared to be the main metalloid for both children and adults causing the high carcinogenic risk. For sustainable development in Central China, special attention should be paid to Cd, Hg, Cr, Pb and As, identified as the priority control soil metals. Importance should also be attached to public education, source control, and the remediation of the

  5. Management of environmental risks associated with landfills in seismically active regions in the New Independent States of Central Asia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Webb, S.M.

    2009-01-01

    Sustainable waste management and disposal is a societal challenge in terms of economics, public health and environmental impact. The situation in developing countries, and in particular those subject to extreme natural hazards, results in increased overall risk as governments prioritize investments to issues of perceived higher economic importance. This dissertation investigates environmental risks associated with landfills in seismically active regions in the New Independent States of Central Asia. Environmental risk from municipal solid waste landfill sites encompasses a wide range of topics within socio-economics, physical sciences and engineering and therefore necessitates a multi-disciplinary approach. The underlying study is an accumulative result of a three-year collaborative research project (Contract No. INCO-CT-2005-516732) funded within the Eu Sixth Framework Programme (FP6). The international cooperation involved European, Russian and Central Asian research partners forming a multi-disciplinary consortium covering: GIS technologies, geology / hydrogeology geophysics and geotechnical engineering; landfill design and operation and waste management. understanding the relevant socio-economic aspects and legislative frameworks was necessary to prepare results and recommendations to address stakeholders in the Central Asian countries: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan,Tajikistan,Turkmenistan and uzbekistan. (author) [de

  6. Mapping of leptospirosis risk factor based on remote sensing image in Tembalang, Semarang City, Central Java

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sunaryo Sunaryo

    2012-09-01

    of leptospirosis, physical environment of risk factor analysis.Methods: This cross sectional design consisted of 246 leptospirosis subjects mapped with GPS, and processed by using ArcGis 92 program. Leptospirosis case was overlaid with remote sensing (Quickbird image, then is done interpretation of spatial feature, and digitation on screen to visual identify of risk factor.Results: Based on digital visualization leptospirosis cases in 2009 were clustered in Tembalang with shortest distance index 0,009 km and is furthermost 18 km. More case distribution found at children and men adolescent. Temporally, case increased in the dry season, among of July and August. Result of visual interpretation and digitation can obtain land use map, water body, settlement, fl oods area, vegetation index and height.Conclusion: Spatial high resolution remote sensing image is very good for mapping of leptospirosis risk factor. Leptospirosis case distribution forms the cluster in Tembalang; case is predominated by children andmen adolescent. (Health Science Indones 2012;1:45-50 

  7. Statistical models for competing risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sather, H.N.

    1976-08-01

    Research results on three new models for potential applications in competing risks problems. One section covers the basic statistical relationships underlying the subsequent competing risks model development. Another discusses the problem of comparing cause-specific risk structure by competing risks theory in two homogeneous populations, P1 and P2. Weibull models which allow more generality than the Berkson and Elveback models are studied for the effect of time on the hazard function. The use of concomitant information for modeling single-risk survival is extended to the multiple failure mode domain of competing risks. The model used to illustrate the use of this methodology is a life table model which has constant hazards within pre-designated intervals of the time scale. Two parametric models for bivariate dependent competing risks, which provide interesting alternatives, are proposed and examined

  8. Computational Aspects of Dam Risk Analysis: Findings and Challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ignacio Escuder-Bueno

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, risk analysis techniques have proved to be a useful tool to inform dam safety management. This paper summarizes the outcomes of three themes related to dam risk analysis discussed in the Benchmark Workshops organized by the International Commission on Large Dams Technical Committee on “Computational Aspects of Analysis and Design of Dams.” In the 2011 Benchmark Workshop, estimation of the probability of failure of a gravity dam for the sliding failure mode was discussed. Next, in 2013, the discussion focused on the computational challenges of the estimation of consequences in dam risk analysis. Finally, in 2015, the probability of sliding and overtopping in an embankment was analyzed. These Benchmark Workshops have allowed a complete review of numerical aspects for dam risk analysis, showing that risk analysis methods are a very useful tool to analyze the risk of dam systems, including downstream consequence assessments and the uncertainty of structural models.

  9. Seismic risk analysis in the German risk study phase B

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hasser, D.; Liemersdorf, J.

    1989-01-01

    The paper discusses some aspects of the seismic risk part of the German risk study for nuclear power plants, phase B. First simplified analyses in phase A of the study allowed a rough classification of structures and systems of the PWR reference plant according to their seismic risk contribution. These studies were extended in phase B using improved models for the dynamic analyses of buildings, structures and components as well as for the probabilistic analyses of seismic loading, failure probabilities and event trees. The methodology of deriving probabilistic seismic load descriptions is explained and compared with the methods in phase A of the study and in other studies. Some details of the linear and nonlinear dynamic analyses of structures are reported, in order to demonstrate the influence of different assumptions for material behavior and failure criteria. The probabilistic structural and event tree analyses are discussed with respect to the distribution assumptions, acceptable simplifications, special results for the PWR reference plant and, finally, the influence of model uncertainties

  10. Uniformity testing: assessment of a centralized web-based uniformity analysis system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klempa, Meaghan C

    2011-06-01

    Uniformity testing is performed daily to ensure adequate camera performance before clinical use. The aim of this study is to assess the reliability of Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center's locally built, centralized, Web-based uniformity analysis system by examining the differences between manufacturer and Web-based National Electrical Manufacturers Association integral uniformity calculations measured in the useful field of view (FOV) and the central FOV. Manufacturer and Web-based integral uniformity calculations measured in the useful FOV and the central FOV were recorded over a 30-d period for 4 cameras from 3 different manufacturers. These data were then statistically analyzed. The differences between the uniformity calculations were computed, in addition to the means and the SDs of these differences for each head of each camera. There was a correlation between the manufacturer and Web-based integral uniformity calculations in the useful FOV and the central FOV over the 30-d period. The average differences between the manufacturer and Web-based useful FOV calculations ranged from -0.30 to 0.099, with SD ranging from 0.092 to 0.32. For the central FOV calculations, the average differences ranged from -0.163 to 0.055, with SD ranging from 0.074 to 0.24. Most of the uniformity calculations computed by this centralized Web-based uniformity analysis system are comparable to the manufacturers' calculations, suggesting that this system is reasonably reliable and effective. This finding is important because centralized Web-based uniformity analysis systems are advantageous in that they test camera performance in the same manner regardless of the manufacturer.

  11. Aliens in Transylvania: risk maps of invasive alien plant species in Central Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heike Zimmermann

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Using the MAXENT algorithm, we developed risk maps for eight invasive plant species in southern Transylvania, Romania, a region undergoing drastic land-use changes. Our findings show that invasion risk increased with landscape heterogeneity. Roads and agricultural areas were most prone to invasion, whereas forests were least at risk.

  12. THE ANALYSIS OF THE RELATION COUNTRY RISK – MULTIPLE VALUE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina Nicolescu

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Financial theory state that high expected growth, low risk in the company’s sector and low interest rates will push multiples higher. In this respect the goal of the empirical work is to examine country risk-multiple value relation, for the companies from emerging and frontier markets such as Central and East European ones. Specific control variables have been included in the model as proxy for growth opportunities, profitability, capital structure, and asset utilization. Using panel data analysis for period 2010-2015 as well as other financial variables for a sample of Central and East European countries during 2010-2015. The results partially support financial theories, mainly the significance of country risk and debt ratio and reject the growth opportunities hypothesis.

  13. Automating risk analysis of software design models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frydman, Maxime; Ruiz, Guifré; Heymann, Elisa; César, Eduardo; Miller, Barton P

    2014-01-01

    The growth of the internet and networked systems has exposed software to an increased amount of security threats. One of the responses from software developers to these threats is the introduction of security activities in the software development lifecycle. This paper describes an approach to reduce the need for costly human expertise to perform risk analysis in software, which is common in secure development methodologies, by automating threat modeling. Reducing the dependency on security experts aims at reducing the cost of secure development by allowing non-security-aware developers to apply secure development with little to no additional cost, making secure development more accessible. To automate threat modeling two data structures are introduced, identification trees and mitigation trees, to identify threats in software designs and advise mitigation techniques, while taking into account specification requirements and cost concerns. These are the components of our model for automated threat modeling, AutSEC. We validated AutSEC by implementing it in a tool based on data flow diagrams, from the Microsoft security development methodology, and applying it to VOMS, a grid middleware component, to evaluate our model's performance.

  14. Space-Time Analysis to Identify Areas at Risk of Mortality from Cardiovascular Disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Poliany C. O. Rodrigues

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed at identifying areas that were at risk of mortality due to cardiovascular disease in residents aged 45 years or older of the cities of Cuiabá and Várzea Grande between 2009 and 2011. We conducted an ecological study of mortality rates related to cardiovascular disease. Mortality rates were calculated for each census tract by the Local Empirical Bayes estimator. High- and low-risk clusters were identified by retrospective space-time scans for each year using the Poisson probability model. We defined the year and month as the temporal analysis unit and the census tracts as the spatial analysis units adjusted by age and sex. The Mann-Whitney U test was used to compare the socioeconomic and environmental variables by risk classification. High-risk clusters showed higher income ratios than low-risk clusters, as did temperature range and atmospheric particulate matter. Low-risk clusters showed higher humidity than high-risk clusters. The Eastern region of Várzea Grande and the central region of Cuiabá were identified as areas at risk of mortality due to cardiovascular disease in individuals aged 45 years or older. High mortality risk was associated with socioeconomic and environmental factors. More high-risk clusters were observed at the end of the dry season.

  15. Quantitative analysis of residual protein contamination of podiatry instruments reprocessed through local and central decontamination units.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Gordon Wg; Goldie, Frank; Long, Steven; Lappin, David F; Ramage, Gordon; Smith, Andrew J

    2011-01-10

    The cleaning stage of the instrument decontamination process has come under increased scrutiny due to the increasing complexity of surgical instruments and the adverse affects of residual protein contamination on surgical instruments. Instruments used in the podiatry field have a complex surface topography and are exposed to a wide range of biological contamination. Currently, podiatry instruments are reprocessed locally within surgeries while national strategies are favouring a move toward reprocessing in central facilities. The aim of this study was to determine the efficacy of local and central reprocessing on podiatry instruments by measuring residual protein contamination of instruments reprocessed by both methods. The residual protein of 189 instruments reprocessed centrally and 189 instruments reprocessed locally was determined using a fluorescent assay based on the reaction of proteins with o-phthaldialdehyde/sodium 2-mercaptoethanesulfonate. Residual protein was detected on 72% (n = 136) of instruments reprocessed centrally and 90% (n = 170) of instruments reprocessed locally. Significantly less protein (p podiatry instruments when protein contamination is considered, though no significant difference was found in residual protein between local decontamination unit and central decontamination unit processes for Blacks files. Further research is needed to undertake qualitative identification of protein contamination to identify any cross contamination risks and a standard for acceptable residual protein contamination applicable to different instruments and specialities should be considered as a matter of urgency.

  16. Risk factors for HIV infection among female sex workers in Bangui, Central African Republic.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean De Dieu Longo

    Full Text Available The aims of the study were i to categorize female sex workers (FSW according to socio-anthropologic criteria in Bangui; ii to examine the association between a selection of demographic and risk variables with the different categories of female sex work as outcome, and iii to investigate factors associated with HIV status.A cross-sectional questionnaire survey was conducted to describe the spectrum of commercial sex work in Bangui among 345 sexually active women. After collection of social and behavioral characteristics, each woman received a physical examination and a blood sample was taken for biological analyses, including HIV testing. The relationships between sociodemographic characteristics, behavioral variables involved in high risk for HIV as well as biological results were investigated by bivariate analysis in relationship with FSW categories as main outcomes, and by bivariate analysis followed by multivariate logistic regression analysis in relationship with HIV as the main outcome. The strength of statistical associations was measured by crude and adjusted Odds ratios (OR and their 95% confidence intervals.The typology of FSW comprised six different categories. Two groups were the "official" professional FSW primarily classified according to their locations of work [i "kata"(18.55% representing women working in poor neighborhoods of Bangui; ii "pupulenge" (13.91% working in hotels and night clubs to seek white men]. Four groups were "clandestine" nonprofessional FSW classified according to their reported main activity [i "market and street vendors" (20.86%; ii "schoolgirls or students" (19.13% involved in occasional transactional sex (during holidays; iii "housewives or unemployed women" (15.65%; iv "civil servants" (11.88% working as soldiers or in the public sector]. The overall prevalence of HIV-1 was 19.12% (66/345. HIV varied according to FSW categories. Thus, among professional FSW, the HIV prevalence was 6-fold higher in "kata

  17. Evaluating the risks of clinical research: direct comparative analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rid, Annette; Abdoler, Emily; Roberson-Nay, Roxann; Pine, Daniel S; Wendler, David

    2014-09-01

    Many guidelines and regulations allow children and adolescents to be enrolled in research without the prospect of clinical benefit when it poses minimal risk. However, few systematic methods exist to determine when research risks are minimal. This situation has led to significant variation in minimal risk judgments, raising concern that some children are not being adequately protected. To address this concern, we describe a new method for implementing the widely endorsed "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk. This standard defines research risks as minimal when they do not exceed the risks posed by daily life activities or routine examinations. This study employed a conceptual and normative analysis, and use of an illustrative example. Different risks are composed of the same basic elements: Type, likelihood, and magnitude of harm. Hence, one can compare the risks of research and the risks of daily life by comparing the respective basic elements with each other. We use this insight to develop a systematic method, direct comparative analysis, for implementing the "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk. The method offers a way of evaluating research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities, such as the risk of experiencing anxiety, stress, or other psychological harm. We thus illustrate how direct comparative analysis can be applied in practice by using it to evaluate whether the anxiety induced by a respiratory CO2 challenge poses minimal or greater than minimal risks in children and adolescents. Direct comparative analysis is a systematic method for applying the "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk to research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities. It thereby offers a method to protect children and adolescents in research, while ensuring that important studies are not blocked because of unwarranted concerns about research risks.

  18. RISK ANALYSIS IN INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY AND COMMUNICATION OUTSOURCING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edmir Parada Vasques Prado

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available This research aims at evaluating the risk analysis process in Information Technology and Communication (ICT outsourcing conducted by organizations of the private sector. The research is characterized by being a descriptive, quantitative and transversal type study, which was used the survey method. Data were collected through questionnaire, the sample is not random and we used a convenience sampling process. The research made contributions to understanding the risk analysis process in ICT services outsourcing, and identified statistically significant relationships between risk analysis, organization's size and its industry, and between risk analysis and diversity of outsourced services

  19. Risk-based decision analysis for groundwater operable units

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiaramonte, G.R.

    1995-01-01

    This document proposes a streamlined approach and methodology for performing risk assessment in support of interim remedial measure (IRM) decisions involving the remediation of contaminated groundwater on the Hanford Site. This methodology, referred to as ''risk-based decision analysis,'' also supports the specification of target cleanup volumes and provides a basis for design and operation of the groundwater remedies. The risk-based decision analysis can be completed within a short time frame and concisely documented. The risk-based decision analysis is more versatile than the qualitative risk assessment (QRA), because it not only supports the need for IRMs, but also provides criteria for defining the success of the IRMs and provides the risk-basis for decisions on final remedies. For these reasons, it is proposed that, for groundwater operable units, the risk-based decision analysis should replace the more elaborate, costly, and time-consuming QRA

  20. A comparative analysis of risk and quality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lynette, Jennifer Elyse

    2017-01-01

    Within the field of emergency management and fire response, risk and quality are conceptualized to some degree in every response effort. Quality is viewed as a relatively new concept within the field of emergency management and fire response. Whereas, within this same field the concept of risk is....... This understanding can serve to facilitate more informed and effective decision making that incorporates both risk and quality before, during, and after emergency events....... independently, decision making and judgement processes have the potential to be positively impacted by furthering research and developing a deeper understanding of these constructs. By understanding risk management principles and combining that with a quality systems approach, decision making can be improved......Within the field of emergency management and fire response, risk and quality are conceptualized to some degree in every response effort. Quality is viewed as a relatively new concept within the field of emergency management and fire response. Whereas, within this same field the concept of risk...

  1. A 54 year analysis of articles from Mpilo Central Hospital, Bulawayo ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    PubMed and Google Scholar were searched to obtain articles originating from Mpilo Central Hospital, Bulawayo, Zimbabwe - 1958 to August 2011 (54 years). 168 articles cited 999 times were retrieved giving about 6 citations per article. Analysis of publication trends over time as well as publication avenues is made.

  2. Geological analysis of paleozoic large-scale faulting in the south-central Pyrenees

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Speksnijder, A.

    1986-01-01

    Detailed structural and sedimentological analysis reveals the existence of an east-west directed fundamental fault zone in the south-central Pyrenees, which has been intermittently active from (at least) the Devonian on. Emphasis is laid on the stUdy of fault-bounded post-Variscan

  3. Geological analysis of paleozoic large-scale faulting in the south-central Pyrenees

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Speksnijder, A.

    1986-01-01

    Detailed structural and sedimentological analysis reveals the existence of an east-west directed fundamental fault zone in the south-central Pyrenees, which has been intermittently active from (at least) the Devonian on. Emphasis is laid on the stUdy of fault-bounded post-Variscan (StephanoPermian)

  4. Analysis of Adoption Spell of Hybrid Maize in the Central Rift Valley ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper estimates farm household level determinants of the speed of adoption of hybrid maize in the central rift valley of Ethiopia in the framework of the dynamic time on cross-sectional data. Descriptive statistics and duration model were used to study the objectives of the study. The results from descriptive analysis ...

  5. Credit networks and systemic risk of Chinese local financing platforms: Too central or too big to fail?. -based on different credit correlations using hierarchical methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Fang; Chen, Xi

    2016-11-01

    The accelerating accumulation and risk concentration of Chinese local financing platforms debts have attracted wide attention throughout the world. Due to the network of financial exposures among institutions, the failure of several platforms or regions of systemic importance will probably trigger systemic risk and destabilize the financial system. However, the complex network of credit relationships in Chinese local financing platforms at the state level remains unknown. To fill this gap, we presented the first complex networks and hierarchical cluster analysis of the credit market of Chinese local financing platforms using the ;bottom up; method from firm-level data. Based on balance-sheet channel, we analyzed the topology and taxonomy by applying the analysis paradigm of subdominant ultra-metric space to an empirical data in 2013. It is remarked that we chose to extract the network of co-financed financing platforms in order to evaluate the effect of risk contagion from platforms to bank system. We used the new credit similarity measure by combining the factor of connectivity and size, to extract minimal spanning trees (MSTs) and hierarchical trees (HTs). We found that: (1) the degree distributions of credit correlation backbone structure of Chinese local financing platforms are fat tailed, and the structure is unstable with respect to targeted failures; (2) the backbone is highly hierarchical, and largely explained by the geographic region; (3) the credit correlation backbone structure based on connectivity and size is significantly heterogeneous; (4) key platforms and regions of systemic importance, and contagion path of systemic risk are obtained, which are contributed to preventing systemic risk and regional risk of Chinese local financing platforms and preserving financial stability under the framework of macro prudential supervision. Our approach of credit similarity measure provides a means of recognizing ;systemically important; institutions and regions

  6. Risk analysis in transport and logistics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ene Andreea Bianca

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Globalization and production concentration have led to more efficient supply chain networks, which has led to the emergence of different types of risks. Although most companies have implemented special risk management programs, there may be events that can not be controlled by businesses, and unwanted consequences are not delayed.

  7. Applications of probabilistic risk analysis in nuclear criticality safety design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, J.K.

    1992-01-01

    Many documents have been prepared that try to define the scope of the criticality analysis and that suggest adding probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) to the deterministic safety analysis. The report of the US Department of Energy (DOE) AL 5481.1B suggested that an accident is credible if the occurrence probability is >1 x 10 -6 /yr. The draft DOE 5480 safety analysis report suggested that safety analyses should include the application of methods such as deterministic safety analysis, risk assessment, reliability engineering, common-cause failure analysis, human reliability analysis, and human factor safety analysis techniques. The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) report NRC SG830.110 suggested that major safety analysis methods should include but not be limited to risk assessment, reliability engineering, and human factor safety analysis. All of these suggestions have recommended including PRA in the traditional criticality analysis

  8. Wavelet Analysis of Central European Stock Market Behaviour During the Crisis

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Baruník, Jozef; Vácha, Lukáš

    2009-01-01

    Roč. 2009, č. 23 (2009), s. 1-14 R&D Projects: GA ČR GP402/08/P207; GA ČR GD402/09/H045 Grant - others:GAUK(CZ) 46108 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : wavelet analysis * multiresolution analysis * Central European stock markets * financial crisis Subject RIV: AH - Economics

  9. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

    2016-04-01

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  10. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

    2016-01-01

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  11. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy, E-mail: gasandylang@live.com; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Diponegoro University, Semarang (Indonesia); Kim, Seon Jin [Department of Mechanical & Automotive Engineering of Pukyong National University (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-04-19

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  12. Essays on Systemic Risk : An analysis from multiple perspectives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. Muns (Sander)

    2016-01-01

    markdownabstractThis thesis is about systemic risk in the financial sector. It considers several aspects of systemic risk. It is a building block for an analysis of the impact of systemic risk on the real economy. It appears that stocks in the financial industry show a strong interdependence

  13. Central depression in nucleonic densities: Trend analysis in the nuclear density functional theory approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuetrumpf, B.; Nazarewicz, W.; Reinhard, P.-G.

    2017-08-01

    Background: The central depression of nucleonic density, i.e., a reduction of density in the nuclear interior, has been attributed to many factors. For instance, bubble structures in superheavy nuclei are believed to be due to the electrostatic repulsion. In light nuclei, the mechanism behind the density reduction in the interior has been discussed in terms of shell effects associated with occupations of s orbits. Purpose: The main objective of this work is to reveal mechanisms behind the formation of central depression in nucleonic densities in light and heavy nuclei. To this end, we introduce several measures of the internal nucleonic density. Through the statistical analysis, we study the information content of these measures with respect to nuclear matter properties. Method: We apply nuclear density functional theory with Skyrme functionals. Using the statistical tools of linear least square regression, we inspect correlations between various measures of central depression and model parameters, including nuclear matter properties. We study bivariate correlations with selected quantities as well as multiple correlations with groups of parameters. Detailed correlation analysis is carried out for 34Si for which a bubble structure has been reported recently, 48Ca, and N =82 , 126, and 184 isotonic chains. Results: We show that the central depression in medium-mass nuclei is very sensitive to shell effects, whereas for superheavy systems it is firmly driven by the electrostatic repulsion. An appreciable semibubble structure in proton density is predicted for 294Og, which is currently the heaviest nucleus known experimentally. Conclusion: Our correlation analysis reveals that the central density indicators in nuclei below 208Pb carry little information on parameters of nuclear matter; they are predominantly driven by shell structure. On the other hand, in the superheavy nuclei there exists a clear relationship between the central nucleonic density and symmetry energy.

  14. Analysis and management of risks experienced in tunnel construction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cagatay Pamukcu

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In this study, first of all, the definitions of "risk", "risk analysis", "risk assessment" and "risk management" were made to avoid any confusions about these terms and significance of risk analysis and management in engineering projects was emphasized. Then, both qualitative and quantitative risk analysis techniques were mentioned and within the scope of the study, Event Tree Analysis method was selected in order to analyze the risks regarding TBM (Tunnel Boring Machine operations in tunnel construction. After all hazards that would be encountered during tunnel construction by TBM method had been investigated, those hazards were undergoing a Preliminary Hazard Analysis to sort out and prioritize the risks with high scores. When the risk scores were taken into consideration, it was seen that the hazards with high risk scores could be classified into 4 groups which are excavation + support induced accidents, accidents stemming from geologic conditions, auxiliary works, and project contract. According to these four classified groups of initiating events, Event Tree Analysis was conducted by taking into care 4 countermeasures apart from each other. Finally, the quantitative and qualitative consequences of Event Tree Analyses, which were undertaken for all initiating events, were investigated and interpreted together by making comparisons and referring to previous studies.

  15. Perception and acceptance of technological risk sources. Volume 2. Empirical analysis of risk perception and acceptance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Renn, O

    1981-01-01

    Volume 2 presents a comparative investigation of risk perception and acceptance. It contains the evaluations of the two experiments in social psychology and the analysis of two intensive inquiries concerning risk perception with a view to 12 different risk sources. The data of the two inquiries were acquired from a total of 200 interview partners in two cities in North-Rhine Westphalia.

  16. Effect of central ventilation and air conditioner system on the concentration and health risk from airborne polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lv, Jinze; Zhu, Lizhong

    2013-03-01

    Central ventilation and air conditioner systems are widely utilized nowadays in public places for air exchange and temperature control, which significantly influences the transfer of pollutants between indoors and outdoors. To study the effect of central ventilation and air conditioner systems on the concentration and health risk from airborne pollutants, a spatial and temporal survey was carried out using polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) as agent pollutants. During the period when the central ventilation system operated without air conditioning (AC-off period), concentrations of 2-4 ring PAHs in the model supermarket were dominated by outdoor levels, due to the good linearity between indoor air and outdoor air (r(p) > 0.769, p air conditioner systems were working simultaneously (AC-on period), although the total levels of PAHs were increased, the concentrations and percentage of the particulate PAHs indoors declined significantly. The BaP equivalency (BaPeq) concentration indicated that utilization of air conditioning reduced the health risks from PAHs in the model supermarket.

  17. Risk factors for central bile duct injury complicating partial liver resection

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boonstra, E. A.; de Boer, M. T.; Sieders, E.; Peeters, P. M. J. G.; de Jong, K. P.; Slooff, M. J. H.; Porte, R. J.

    Background: Bile duct injury is a serious complication following liver resection. Few studies have differentiated between leakage from small peripheral bile ducts and central bile duct injury (CBDI), defined as an injury leading to leakage or stenosis of the common bile duct, common hepatic duct,

  18. Occupational exposure to extremely low-frequency magnetic fields and risk for central nervous system disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Camilla; Poulsen, Aslak Harbo; Rod, Naja Hulvej

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: Evidence of whether exposure to extremely low-frequency magnetic fields (ELF-MF) is related to central nervous system diseases is inconsistent. This study updates a previous study of the incidence of such diseases in a large cohort of Danish utility workers by almost doubling the period...

  19. Toxicity After Central versus Peripheral Lung Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy: A Propensity Score Matched-Pair Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mangona, Victor S. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Beaumont Health System, Royal Oak, Michigan (United States); Aneese, Andrew M. [Oakland University William Beaumont School of Medicine, Rochester, Michigan (United States); Marina, Ovidiu; Hymas, Richard V. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Beaumont Health System, Royal Oak, Michigan (United States); Ionascu, Dan; Robertson, John M. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Beaumont Health System, Royal Oak, Michigan (United States); Oakland University William Beaumont School of Medicine, Rochester, Michigan (United States); Gallardo, Lori J. [Oakland University William Beaumont School of Medicine, Rochester, Michigan (United States); Department of Radiology, Beaumont Health System, Royal Oak, Michigan (United States); Grills, Inga Siiner, E-mail: igrills@beaumont.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, Beaumont Health System, Royal Oak, Michigan (United States); Oakland University William Beaumont School of Medicine, Rochester, Michigan (United States)

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: To compare toxicity after stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) for “central” tumors—within 2 cm of the proximal bronchial tree or with planning tumor volume (PTV) touching mediastinum—versus noncentral (“peripheral”) lung tumors. Methods and Materials: From November 2005 to January 2011, 229 tumors (110 central, 119 peripheral; T1-3N0M0 non–small-cell lung cancer and limited lung metastases) in 196 consecutive patients followed prospectively at a single institution received moderate-dose SBRT (48-60 Gy in 4-5 fractions [biologic effective dose=100-132 Gy, α/β=10]) using 4-dimensional planning, online image-guided radiation therapy, and institutional dose constraints. Clinical adverse events (AEs) were graded prospectively at clinical and radiographic follow-up using Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events version 3.0. Pulmonary function test (PFT) decline was graded as 2 (25%-49.9% decline), 3 (50.0%-74.9% decline), or 4 (≥75.0% decline). Central/peripheral location was assessed retrospectively on planning CT scans. Groups were compared after propensity score matching. Characteristics were compared with χ{sup 2} and 2-tailed t tests, adverse events with χ{sup 2} test-for-trend, and cumulative incidence using competing risks analysis (Gray's test). Results: With 79 central and 79 peripheral tumors matched, no differences in AEs were observed after 17 months median follow-up. Two-year cumulative incidences of grade ≥2 pain, musculoskeletal, pulmonary, and skin AEs were 14%, 5%, 6%, and 10% (central) versus 19%, 10%, 10%, and 3% (peripheral), respectively (P=.31, .38, .70, and .09). Grade ≥2 cardiovascular, gastrointestinal, and central nervous system AEs were rare (<1%). Two-year incidences of grade ≥2 clinical AEs (28% vs 25%, P=.79), grade ≥2 PFT decline (36% vs 34%, P=.94), grade ≥3 clinical AEs (3% vs 7%, P=.48), and grade ≥3 PFT decline (0 vs 10%, P=.11) were similar for central versus peripheral

  20. Prevalence and evaluation of environmental risk factors associated with cleft lip and palate in a central Indian population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalaskar, Ritesh; Kalaskar, Ashita; Naqvi, Fatama Sana; Tawani, Gopal S; Walke, Damayanti R

    2013-01-01

    Cleft lip and palate, the most common developmental deformity seen worldwide, may be either genetic or environmental in origin. Recent research clearly shows the inter-relationship between environmental risk factors and development of oral clefts. The purpose of this study was to determine the prevalence of cleft lip and palate in the Nagpur region of India and to evaluate environmental risk factors associated with the occurrence of this orofacial abnormality. The parents of infants born with or without cleft lip and palate were subjected to questionnaires that elicited sociodemographic profiles and histories of maternal dietary, medical, and environmental risk factors as well family histories of cleft. A multifactorial comparison of environmental risk factors associated with this deformity was performed. The prevalence of cleft lip and palate and cleft palate was found to be 0.66% and 0.27%, respectively, in the Nagpur region. The results demonstrated a positive association between cleft lip and palate and the environmental risk factors of nutritional deficiency, anemia, and self-administered medications. Several environmental risk factors appear to play an important role in the development of cleft lip and palate in a Central Indian population of low socioeconomic status.

  1. Heavy Metal Contamination in Soil and Brown Rice and Human Health Risk Assessment near Three Mining Areas in Central China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Fan

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Metal mining and waste discharge lead to regional heavy metal contamination and attract major concern because of the potential risk to local residents. Methods. This research was conducted to determine lead (Pb, cadmium (Cd, arsenic (As, manganese (Mn, and antimony (Sb concentrations in soil and brown rice samples from three heavy metal mining areas in Hunan Province, central China, and to assess the potential health risks to local inhabitants. Results. Local soil contamination was observed, with mean concentrations of Cd, Pb, Sb, and As of 0.472, 193.133, 36.793, and 89.029 mg/kg, respectively. Mean concentrations of Cd, Pb, Sb, Mn, and As in brown rice were 0.103, 0.131, 5.175, 6.007, and 0.524 mg/kg, respectively. Daily intakes of Cd, As, Sb, Pb, and Mn through brown rice consumption were estimated to be 0.011, 0.0002, 0.004, 0.0001, and 0.0003 mg/(kg/day, respectively. The combined hazard index for the five heavy metals was 22.5917, and the total cancer risk was 0.1773. Cd contributed most significantly to cancer risk, accounting for approximately 99.77% of this risk. Conclusions. The results show that potential noncarcinogenic and carcinogenic health risks exist for local inhabitants and that regular monitoring of pollution to protect human health is urgently required.

  2. Heavy Metal Contamination in Soil and Brown Rice and Human Health Risk Assessment near Three Mining Areas in Central China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Yu; Zhu, Tingping; Li, Mengtong; He, Jieyi; Huang, Ruixue

    2017-01-01

    Metal mining and waste discharge lead to regional heavy metal contamination and attract major concern because of the potential risk to local residents. This research was conducted to determine lead (Pb), cadmium (Cd), arsenic (As), manganese (Mn), and antimony (Sb) concentrations in soil and brown rice samples from three heavy metal mining areas in Hunan Province, central China, and to assess the potential health risks to local inhabitants. Local soil contamination was observed, with mean concentrations of Cd, Pb, Sb, and As of 0.472, 193.133, 36.793, and 89.029 mg/kg, respectively. Mean concentrations of Cd, Pb, Sb, Mn, and As in brown rice were 0.103, 0.131, 5.175, 6.007, and 0.524 mg/kg, respectively. Daily intakes of Cd, As, Sb, Pb, and Mn through brown rice consumption were estimated to be 0.011, 0.0002, 0.004, 0.0001, and 0.0003 mg/(kg/day), respectively. The combined hazard index for the five heavy metals was 22.5917, and the total cancer risk was 0.1773. Cd contributed most significantly to cancer risk, accounting for approximately 99.77% of this risk. The results show that potential noncarcinogenic and carcinogenic health risks exist for local inhabitants and that regular monitoring of pollution to protect human health is urgently required.

  3. Assessment and uncertainty analysis of groundwater risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Fawen; Zhu, Jingzhao; Deng, Xiyuan; Zhao, Yong; Li, Shaofei

    2018-01-01

    Groundwater with relatively stable quantity and quality is commonly used by human being. However, as the over-mining of groundwater, problems such as groundwater funnel, land subsidence and salt water intrusion have emerged. In order to avoid further deterioration of hydrogeological problems in over-mining regions, it is necessary to conduct the assessment of groundwater risk. In this paper, risks of shallow and deep groundwater in the water intake area of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project in Tianjin, China, were evaluated. Firstly, two sets of four-level evaluation index system were constructed based on the different characteristics of shallow and deep groundwater. Secondly, based on the normalized factor values and the synthetic weights, the risk values of shallow and deep groundwater were calculated. Lastly, the uncertainty of groundwater risk assessment was analyzed by indicator kriging method. The results meet the decision maker's demand for risk information, and overcome previous risk assessment results expressed in the form of deterministic point estimations, which ignore the uncertainty of risk assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Method for environmental risk analysis (MIRA) revision 2007

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-04-01

    OLF's instruction manual for carrying out environmental risk analyses provides a united approach and a common framework for environmental risk assessments. This is based on the best information available. The manual implies standardizations of a series of parameters, input data and partial analyses that are included in the environmental risk analysis. Environmental risk analyses carried out according to the MIRA method will thus be comparable between fields and between companies. In this revision an update of the text in accordance with today's practice for environmental risk analyses and prevailing regulations is emphasized. Moreover, method adjustments for especially protected beach habitats have been introduced, as well as a general method for estimating environmental risk concerning fish. Emphasis has also been put on improving environmental risk analysis' possibilities to contribute to a better management of environmental risk in the companies (ml)

  5. Risk analysis with regard to nuclear engineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birkhofer, A.

    1980-01-01

    The author discusses the following questions: why are risk analyses elaborated. How are they carried out and which problems may arise. Completeness problem, data, human factors, common-mode-failures, accident simulation. To give an idea of the applicability of the results of risk analyses the author deals with systems comparison and system optimization, maintenance and testing strategies, incidents and the course of accidents that have to be considered in designing technical safety measures for nuclear power plants. Finally, the author tries to enter into questions that might arise due to the effects risk analyses may create in the general public. (HSCH) [de

  6. Methodology for risk analysis of nuclear installations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Senne Junior, Murillo; Jordao, Elizabete

    2002-01-01

    Both the licensing standards for general uses in nuclear facilities and the specific ones require a risk assessment during their licensing processes. The risk assessment is carried out through the estimation of both probability of the occurrence of the accident, and their magnitudes. This is a complex task because the great deal of potential hazardous events that can occur in nuclear facilities difficult the statement of the accident scenarios. There are also many available techniques to identify the potential accidents, estimate their probabilities, and evaluate their magnitudes. In this paper is presented a new methodology that systematizes the risk assessment process, and orders the accomplishment of their several steps. (author)

  7. EC Transmission Line Risk Identification and Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bigelow, Tim S [ORNL

    2012-04-01

    The purpose of this document is to assist in evaluating and planning for the cost, schedule, and technical project risks associated with the delivery and operation of the EC (Electron cyclotron) transmission line system. In general, the major risks that are anticipated to be encountered during the project delivery phase associated with the implementation of the Procurement Arrangement for the EC transmission line system are associated with: (1) Undefined or changing requirements (e.g., functional or regulatory requirements) (2) Underperformance of prototype, first unit, or production components during testing (3) Unavailability of qualified vendors for critical components Technical risks associated with the design and operation of the system are also identified.

  8. Risk Analysis for Unintentional Slide Deployment During Airline Operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayra, Eduardo S; Insua, David Ríos; Castellanos, María Eugenia; Larbi, Lydia

    2015-09-01

    We present a risk analysis undertaken to mitigate problems in relation to the unintended deployment of slides under normal operations within a commercial airline. This type of incident entails relevant costs for the airline industry. After assessing the likelihood and severity of its consequences, we conclude that such risks need to be managed. We then evaluate the effectiveness of various countermeasures, describing and justifying the chosen ones. We also discuss several issues faced when implementing and communicating the proposed measures, thus fully illustrating the risk analysis process. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  9. Comparative Analysis of Risk, Return and Diversification of Mutual Fund

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rais Ahmad

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Mutual Funds have become a widely popular and effective way for investors to participate in financial markets in an easy, low-cost fashion, while muting risk characteristics by spreading the investment across different types of securities, also known as diversification. It can play a central role in an individual's investment strategy. With the plethora of schemes available in the Indian markets, an investors needs to evaluate and consider various factors before making an investment decision. The present investigation is aimed to examine the performance of safest investment instrument in the security market in the eyes of investors. Five mutual fund large cap scheme have been selected for this purpose. The examination is achieved by assessing various financial tests like Sharpe Ratio, Standard Deviation, Alpha, and Beta. Furthermore, in-depth analysis also has been done by considering return over the period of last five years on various basis, expenses ratio, corpus-size etc. The data has been taken from various websites of mutual fund schemes and from www.valueresearch.com. The study will be helpful for the researchers and financial analysts to analyze various securities or funds while selecting the best investment alternative out of the galaxy of investment alternatives.

  10. Assessment report on NRP sub-theme 'Risk Analysis'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Biesiot, W.; Hendrickx, L.; Olsthoorn, A.A.

    1995-01-01

    An overview and assessment are presented of the three research projects carried out under NRP funding that concern risk-related topics: (1) The risks of nonlinear climate changes, (2) Socio-economic and policy aspects of changes in incidence and intensity of extreme (weather) events, and (3) Characterizing the risks: a comparative analysis of the risks of global warming and of relevant policy strategies. 1 tab., 6 refs

  11. Approach for seismic risk analysis for CANDU plants in Korea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, B-S; Kim, T; Kang, S-K [Korea Power Engineering Co., Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Hong, S-Y; Roh, S-R [Korea Electric Power Corp., Taejon (Korea, Republic of). Research Centre

    1996-12-31

    A seismic risk analysis for CANDU type plants has never been performed. The study presented here suggested that the approach generally applied to LWR type plants could lead to unacceptable result, if directly applied to CANDU plants. This paper presents a modified approach for the seismic risk analysis of CANDU plants. (author). 5 refs., 2 tabs., 2 figs.

  12. Comparative Analysis of China’s Energy Strategy in Central Asian States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mina Poshtich

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article addresses the influence of the energy factor on formulating China’s political and economic strategy towards Central Asia. Therefore, the article provides the profound analysis of the PRC energy strategy in the region, namely its principles, goals, objectives and mechanisms. The article also examines the key areas of energy cooperation between China and the five Central Asian states, as well as the major joint energy projects. Moreover, the article takes a close look at the Silk Road Economic Belt as one of the largest and most ambitious Chinese economic projects, for it is directly relevant to the development of energy cooperation in the region. The author also analyses the prospects as well as possible problems of further energy cooperation between China and Central Asian states. 

  13. The analysis of export commodity competitiveness in Central Java Province at period 2011-2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elysi, M. G.; Darsono; Riptanti, E. W.

    2018-03-01

    This study aims to determine the competitiveness of furniture export in Central Java Province Indonesia in terms of comparative and competitive advantages and to formulate the strategies to enhance the competitiveness of furniture export in Central Java Province. Descriptive analytic method was used for this research. Data used in this research are primary and secondary data. Data were analyzed using RCA (Revealed Comparative Advantage), TSI (Trade Specialization Index) and SOAR (Strength, Opportunity, Aspiration, Result). The results showed that furniture commodity in Central Java Province had strong comparative competitiveness with the value of RCA>1 and had strong competitiveness with positive index values in the range of 0 to 1. Based on SOAR analysis, strategy measures can be formulated, namely maintaining the existing and expanding targeted markets, improving product designs (innovations) and improving raw materials efficiency.

  14. Operational Risk Management A Practical Approach to Intelligent Data Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Kenett, Ron

    2010-01-01

    The book will introduce modern Operational Risk (OpR) Management and illustrates the various sources of OpR assessment and OpR mitigation. This book discusses how various data sources can be integrated and analyzed and how OpR is synergetic to other risk management activities such as Financial Risk Management and Internationalization. The topics will include state of the art technology such as semantic analysis, ontology engineering, data mining and statistical analysis.

  15. Living PRAs [probabilistic risk analysis] made easier with IRRAS [Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russell, K.D.; Sattison, M.B.; Rasmuson, D.M.

    1989-01-01

    The Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) is an integrated PRA software tool that gives the user the ability to create and analyze fault trees and accident sequences using an IBM-compatible microcomputer. This program provides functions that range from graphical fault tree and event tree construction to cut set generation and quantification. IRRAS contains all the capabilities and functions required to create, modify, reduce, and analyze event tree and fault tree models used in the analysis of complex systems and processes. IRRAS uses advanced graphic and analytical techniques to achieve the greatest possible realization of the potential of the microcomputer. When the needs of the user exceed this potential, IRRAS can call upon the power of the mainframe computer. The role of the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory if the IRRAS program is that of software developer and interface to the user community. Version 1.0 of the IRRAS program was released in February 1987 to prove the concept of performing this kind of analysis on microcomputers. This version contained many of the basic features needed for fault tree analysis and was received very well by the PRA community. Since the release of Version 1.0, many user comments and enhancements have been incorporated into the program providing a much more powerful and user-friendly system. This version is designated ''IRRAS 2.0''. Version 3.0 will contain all of the features required for efficient event tree and fault tree construction and analysis. 5 refs., 26 figs

  16. Big Data Risk Analysis for Rail Safety?

    OpenAIRE

    Van Gulijk, Coen; Hughes, Peter; Figueres-Esteban, Miguel; Dacre, Marcus; Harrison, Chris; HUD; RSSB

    2015-01-01

    Computer scientists believe that the enormous amounts of data in the internet will unchain a management revolution of uncanny proportions. Yet, to date, the potential benefit of this revolution is scantily investigated for safety and risk management. This paper gives a brief overview of a research programme that investigates how the new internet-driven data-revolution could benefit safety and risk management for railway safety in the UK. The paper gives a brief overview the current activities...

  17. Organochlorines in urban soils from Central India: probabilistic health hazard and risk implications to human population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Bhupander; Mishra, Meenu; Verma, V K; Rai, Premanjali; Kumar, Sanjay

    2018-04-21

    This study presents distribution of organochlorines (OCs) including HCH, DDT and PCBs in urban soils, and their environmental and human health risk. Forty-eight soil samples were extracted using ultrasonication, cleaned with modified silica gel chromatography and analyzed by GC-ECD. The observed concentrations of ∑HCH, ∑DDT and ∑PCBs in soils ranged between < 0.01-2.54, 1.30-27.41 and < 0.01-62.8 µg kg -1 , respectively, which were lower than the recommended soil quality guidelines. Human health risk was estimated following recommended guidelines. Lifetime average daily dose (LADD), non-cancer risk or hazard quotient (HQ) and incremental lifetime cancer risk (ILCR) for humans due to individual and total OCs were estimated and presented. Estimated LADD were lower than acceptable daily intake and reference dose. Human health risk estimates were lower than safe limit of non-cancer risk (HQ < 1.0) and the acceptable distribution range of ILCR (10 -6 -10 -4 ). Therefore, this study concluded that present levels of OCs (HCH, DDT and PCBs) in studied soils were low, and subsequently posed low health risk to human population in the study area.

  18. Risk mapping of Rinderpest sero-prevalence in Central and Southern Somalia based on spatial and network risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortiz-Pelaez, Angel; Pfeiffer, Dirk U; Tempia, Stefano; Otieno, F Tom; Aden, Hussein H; Costagli, Riccardo

    2010-04-28

    In contrast to most pastoral systems, the Somali livestock production system is oriented towards domestic trade and export with seasonal movement patterns of herds/flocks in search of water and pasture and towards export points. Data from a rinderpest survey and other data sources have been integrated to explore the topology of a contact network of cattle herds based on a spatial proximity criterion and other attributes related to cattle herd dynamics. The objective of the study is to integrate spatial mobility and other attributes with GIS and network approaches in order to develop a predictive spatial model of presence of rinderpest. A spatial logistic regression model was fitted using data for 562 point locations. It includes three statistically significant continuous-scale variables that increase the risk of rinderpest: home range radius, herd density and clustering coefficient of the node of the network whose link was established if the sum of the home ranges of every pair of nodes was equal or greater than the shortest distance between the points. The sensitivity of the model is 85.1% and the specificity 84.6%, correctly classifying 84.7% of the observations. The spatial autocorrelation not accounted for by the model is negligible and visual assessment of a semivariogram of the residuals indicated that there was no undue amount of spatial autocorrelation. The predictive model was applied to a set of 6176 point locations covering the study area. Areas at high risk of having serological evidence of rinderpest are located mainly in the coastal districts of Lower and Middle Juba, the coastal area of Lower Shabele and in the regions of Middle Shabele and Bay. There are also isolated spots of high risk along the border with Kenya and the southern area of the border with Ethiopia. The identification of point locations and areas with high risk of presence of rinderpest and their spatial visualization as a risk map will be useful for informing the prioritization of

  19. Risk assessment of pet-traded decapod crustaceans in the Republic of Kazakhstan, the leading country in Central Asia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Uderbayev Talgat

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The pet trade with decapod crustaceans has been considered one of the main pathway of introduction of these animals worldwide. As the leading markets in this regards are the Czech Republic, Germany and the USA. Central Asia is not perceived as an important market with ornamental decapod crustaceans. Despite this assumption, we found at least 16 species of freshwater shrimp, crayfish and crab species pet-traded in the Republic of Kazakhstan, the largest country in this region. Considering computed risk assessment, the origin of particular species, their availability on the market, the probability of establishment and further aspects, we identified two crayfish Procambarus clarkii and Procambarus fallax f. virginalis being the seriously hazardous taxa with high potential to threaten native crayfish species as well as inhabited ecosystems. To prevent their introductions and to minimize the risks of mentioned species, similarly as in the case of European Union, we recommend the total ban of import, trade and keeping of these high-risk taxa within Central Asia.

  20. Pesticide residues in leafy vegetables and human health risk assessment in North Central agricultural areas of Chile.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elgueta, Sebastian; Moyano, Stella; Sepúlveda, Paulina; Quiroz, Carlos; Correa, Arturo

    2017-06-01

    To investigate pesticide residue concentrations and potential human health risk, a study was conducted in 118 leafy vegetable samples collected in 2014-2015 from the North Central agricultural areas of Chile. The pesticide residues were determined using the multiresidue QuEChERS method by gas chromatography as well as high-performance liquid chromatography. The results indicated that 27% of the total samples contained pesticide residues above the maximum residue limits of each active ingredient. The maximum estimated daily intake obtained for carbon disulphide (CS 2 ), methamidophos, azoxystrobin and cypermethrin were 0.57, 0.07, 0.06 and 0.05 mg kg -1 , respectively, which was higher than their acceptable daily intake. It is concluded that inhabitants of the North Central agricultural area of Chile are not exposed to health risks through the consumption of leafy vegetables with the exception of methamidophos. Nevertheless, the high levels of methamidophos detected in leafy vegetables could be considered a potential chronic health risk.

  1. Gap analysis and conservation network for freshwater wetlands in Central Yangtze Ecoregion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiaowen, Li; Haijin, Zhuge; Li, Mengdi

    2013-01-01

    The Central Yangtze Ecoregion contains a large area of internationally important freshwater wetlands and supports a huge number of endangered waterbirds; however, these unique wetlands and the biodiversity they support are under the constant threats of human development pressures, and the prevailing conservation strategies generated based on the local scale cannot adequately be used as guidelines for ecoregion-based conservation initiatives for Central Yangtze at the broad scale. This paper aims at establishing and optimizing an ecological network for freshwater wetland conservation in the Central Yangtze Ecoregion based on large-scale gap analysis. A group of focal species and GIS-based extrapolation technique were employed to identify the potential habitats and conservation gaps, and the optimized conservation network was then established by combining existing protective system and identified conservation gaps. Our results show that only 23.49% of the potential habitats of the focal species have been included in the existing nature reserves in the Central Yangtze Ecoregion. To effectively conserve over 80% of the potential habitats for the focal species by optimizing the existing conservation network for the freshwater wetlands in Central Yangtze Ecoregion, it is necessary to establish new wetland nature reserves in 22 county units across Hubei, Anhui, and Jiangxi provinces.

  2. Integrating Household Risk Mitigation Behavior in Flood Risk Analysis: An Agent-Based Model Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haer, Toon; Botzen, W J Wouter; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen C J H

    2017-10-01

    Recent studies showed that climate change and socioeconomic trends are expected to increase flood risks in many regions. However, in these studies, human behavior is commonly assumed to be constant, which neglects interaction and feedback loops between human and environmental systems. This neglect of human adaptation leads to a misrepresentation of flood risk. This article presents an agent-based model that incorporates human decision making in flood risk analysis. In particular, household investments in loss-reducing measures are examined under three economic decision models: (1) expected utility theory, which is the traditional economic model of rational agents; (2) prospect theory, which takes account of bounded rationality; and (3) a prospect theory model, which accounts for changing risk perceptions and social interactions through a process of Bayesian updating. We show that neglecting human behavior in flood risk assessment studies can result in a considerable misestimation of future flood risk, which is in our case study an overestimation of a factor two. Furthermore, we show how behavior models can support flood risk analysis under different behavioral assumptions, illustrating the need to include the dynamic adaptive human behavior of, for instance, households, insurers, and governments. The method presented here provides a solid basis for exploring human behavior and the resulting flood risk with respect to low-probability/high-impact risks. © 2016 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

  3. Effect of informal employment on the relationship between psychosocial work risk factors and musculoskeletal pain in Central American workers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gimeno Ruiz de Porras, David; Rojas Garbanzo, Marianela; Aragón, Aurora; Carmenate-Milián, Lino; Benavides, Fernando G

    2017-09-01

    The constant increase on the psychosocial demands experienced at work seems to contribute to the increase in health problems such as musculoskeletal pain (MSP). This association may be especially important in low-income and middle-income countries, where there is a large proportion of informal workers among whom there is little research. We analysed the association between psychosocial work risk factors and MSP among formal and informal workers using the First Central American Survey of Working Conditions and Health. This is a representative sample (n=12 024) of the economically active population of the six Spanish-speaking countries of Central America. Prevalence ratios (PR) and corresponding 95% CIs from Poisson regression models were used to estimate the association between psychosocial work risk factors and the MSP. Compared with formal workers, informal workers reported higher prevalence of MPS in the body regions analysed (ie, cervicodorsal, lumbosacral, upper extremities) and higher exposure to psychosocial work risk factors. However, on the whole, the associations between the exposure to psychosocial work risk factors and the prevalence of MSP were similar for both formal and informal workers. Only the association between exposure to high demands and MSP in the upper extremities was higher (p=0.012) among formal (PR=1.69, 95% CI 1.46 to 1.96) than among informal workers (PR=1.40; 95% CI 1.30 to 1.51). Exposure to adverse levels of psychosocial work risk factors is associated with higher prevalence of MPS among both formal and informal workers. However, the role of employment informality in this association is complex and requires further examination. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  4. Project Portfolio Risk Identification and Analysis, Considering Project Risk Interactions and Using Bayesian Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Foroogh Ghasemi

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available An organization’s strategic objectives are accomplished through portfolios. However, the materialization of portfolio risks may affect a portfolio’s sustainable success and the achievement of those objectives. Moreover, project interdependencies and cause–effect relationships between risks create complexity for portfolio risk analysis. This paper presents a model using Bayesian network (BN methodology for modeling and analyzing portfolio risks. To develop this model, first, portfolio-level risks and risks caused by project interdependencies are identified. Then, based on their cause–effect relationships all portfolio risks are organized in a BN. Conditional probability distributions for this network are specified and the Bayesian networks method is used to estimate the probability of portfolio risk. This model was applied to a portfolio of a construction company located in Iran and proved effective in analyzing portfolio risk probability. Furthermore, the model provided valuable information for selecting a portfolio’s projects and making strategic decisions.

  5. Analysis of risk factors in the development of retinopathy of prematurity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Knežević Sanja

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. Retinopathy of prematurity (ROP is a multifactorial disease that occurs most frequently in very small and very sick preterm infants, and it has been identified as the major cause of childhood blindness. Objective. The aim of this study was to evaluate ROP incidence and risk factors associated with varying degrees of illness. Methods. The study was conducted at the Centre for Neonatology, Paediatric Clinic of the Clinical Centre Kragujevac, Serbia, in the period from June 2006 to December 2008. Ophthalmologic screening was performed in all children with body weight lower than 2000 g or gestational age lower than 36 weeks. We analyzed eighteen postnatal and six perinatal risk factors and the group correlations for each of the risk factors. Results. Out of 317 children that were screened, 56 (17.7% developed a mild form of ROP, while 68 (21.5% developed a severe form. Univariate analysis revealed a large number of statistically significant risk factors for the development of ROP, especially the severe form. Multivariate logistical analysis further separated two independent risk factors: small birth weight (p=0.001 and damage of central nervous system (p=0.01. Independent risk factors for transition from mild to severe forms of ROP were identified as: small birth weight (p=0.05 and perinatal risk factors (p=0.02. Conclusion. Small birth weight and central nervous system damage were risk factors for the development of ROP, perinatal risk factors were identified as significant for transition from mild to severe form of ROP.

  6. Risk modelling of shale gas development scenarios in the Central Karoo

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Schreiner, GO

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available The scientific assessment of shale gas development was compiled by over 200 authors and peer reviewers from around the world. Novel assessment methods were used based on the concepts of risk, scenarios and predictive landscape modelling. Three...

  7. THE ADEQUACY OF THE CAPITAL - CENTRAL OBJECTIVE OF PERFORMANCE MANAGEMENT AND BANKING RISK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    LOREDANA CIURLĂU

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The main objective of this work is to highlight the role that the methods and techniques for the management of banking risks have in internal process the capital adequacy at risk in the future and to reflect the continued growth of the banking risks in the contemporary age, in conjunction with the intensification of cooperation that led to the internationalizing of regulations, within the meaning of the development of national rules in accordance with the principles accepted by several countries, the kind of international groups of studies organized by the Bank for International Settlements the Basel Convention or the application of Community rules, drawn up in the form of the Directives of the European Communities. The work has the research field the theoretical and practical aspects of the completion of the internal process the capital adequacy at risk in banks.

  8. "It is not possible for me to have diabetes"-community perceptions on diabetes and its risk factors in Rural Purworejo District, Central Java, Indonesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pujilestari, Cahya Utamie; Ng, Nawi; Hakimi, Mohammad; Eriksson, Malin

    2014-06-12

    Accumulating evidence suggests that negative perceptions towards diabetes can limit the management and prevention of the disease. The negative perceptions towards diabetes are prevalent in many different settings, especially among rural communities. Few qualitative studies have been performed to understand how the community views diabetes and its associated risk factors. This study aimed to explore general community perceptions of diabetes and its risk factors in rural Indonesia. A total of 68 participants were recruited to 12 focus group discussions (FGDs) comprised of different age groups and sexes. The FGDs were conducted in six villages in rural Purworejo District, Central Java, Indonesia, from 2011 to 2012. All FGDs were recorded and transcribed. Qualitative content analysis was performed to describe and analyse how the rural community perceived diabetes and its risk factors. Diabetes was perceived as a visible and scary sugar disease, and the affected individuals themselves were blamed for getting the disease. Recognised as 'sugar' or 'sweet-pee' disease with terrifying effects, diabetes was believed to be a disease with no cure. The participants seemed to have an unrealistic optimism with regards to the diabetes risk factors. They believed that diabetes would not affect them, only others, and that having family members with diabetes was necessary for one to develop diabetes. Our findings demonstrate that rural communities have negative perceptions about diabetes and at the same time individuals have unrealistic optimism about their own risk factors. Understanding how such communities perceive diabetes and its risk factors is important for planning prevention strategies. Health messages need to be tailored to health-related behaviours and the local culture's concepts of diseases and risk factors.

  9. Patients with primary diffuse large B-cell lymphoma of female genital tract have high risk of central nervous system relapse.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Xin-xin; Li, Jian; Zhang, Wei; Duan, Ming-hui; Shen, Ti; Zhou, Dao-bin

    2014-06-01

    The objective of this study was to evaluate retrospectively the clinical characteristics, treatments, and outcomes of patients with primary diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) of the female genital tract. The basic characteristics, treatments, and outcomes of six patients diagnosed with primary DLBCL of the female genital tract, including the ovary, uterine cervix, and vagina, treated in our hospital between 2000 and 2012, were analyzed retrospectively. Seven of 323 (2.2 %) newly diagnosed DLBCLs were diagnosed as primary female genital tract DLBCL. Six patients with complete medical data were included in the analysis. The median age at diagnosis was 52.5 years (range 20-65). The presenting symptoms included abnormal vaginal bleeding, increased vaginal discharge, abdominal fullness, and abdominal pain. Two patients had stage IE disease and four patients had stage IIE disease. Treatment included chemotherapy only in five patients, and combined chemotherapy and localized radiation in one patient. After a median follow-up of 58 months, four patients showed relapse in the central nervous system and two had died from progressive disease. The median progression-free survival was 27 months and the median overall survival for this group has not been reached. Patients with primary female genital tract DLBCL may have poor outcomes and a high risk of central nervous system relapse. Central nervous system prophylaxis might be considered in addition to systemic chemotherapy for DLBCL of the female genital tract.

  10. Single-shell tank interim stabilization risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Basche, A.D.

    1998-01-01

    The purpose of the Single-Shell Tank (SST) Interim Stabilization Risk Analysis is to provide a cost and schedule risk analysis of HNF-2358, Rev. 1, Single-Shell Tank Interim Stabilization Project Plan (Project Plan) (Ross et al. 1998). The analysis compares the required cost profile by fiscal year (Section 4.2) and revised schedule completion date (Section 4.5) to the Project Plan. The analysis also evaluates the executability of the Project Plan and recommends a path forward for risk mitigation

  11. Risk analysis of Finnish peacekeeping in Kosovo.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehtomäki, Kyösti; Pääkkönen, Rauno J; Rantanen, Jorma

    2005-04-01

    The research team interviewed over 90 Finnish battalion members in Kosovo, visited 22 units or posts, registered its observations, and made any necessary measurements. Key persons were asked to list the most important risks for occupational safety and health in their area of responsibility. Altogether, 106 accidents and 40 cases of disease resulted in compensation claims in 2000. The risks to the peacekeeping force were about twice those of the permanent staff of military trainees in Finland. Altogether, 21 accidents or cases of disease resulted in sick leave for at least 3 months after service. One permanent injury resulted from an explosion. Biological, chemical, and physical factors caused 8 to 9 occupational illnesses each. Traffic accidents, operational factors, and munitions and mines were evaluated to be the three most important risk factors, followed by occupational hygiene, living conditions (mold, fungi, dust), and general hygiene. Possible fatal risks, such as traffic accidents and munitions and explosives, received a high ranking in both the subjective and the objective evaluations. One permanent injury resulted from an explosion, and two traffic accidents involved a fatality, although not of a peacekeeper. The reduction of sports and military training accidents, risk-control programs, and, for some tasks, better personal protection is considered a development challenge for the near future.

  12. Risk Analysis for the Different Consolidation Proposals

    CERN Document Server

    Strait, J

    2009-01-01

    In parallel with the repairs in sector 34, improvements are planned to a number of systems, to allow safe detection of faults similar to the one which caused the incident of 19 September, and to limit the damage should a similar incident nonetheless occur. These include improved bus and quench detection systems, improved pressure relief for the insulating and beam vacuum systems, and improved anchoring of the SSS to the tunnel floor. Not all of the planned mitigations, however, may be fully implemented before the restart of the LHC in 2009. I will review the potential benefits of partial or complete implementation of each of the planned improvements, individually or together with others, and conversely the potential risks (consequences) of delayed implementation. I will also review the risks that remain even after the planned consolidation is complete. Considering all proposals and the different risks, I will comment on what would be the best strategy for consolidation, and on the strategy for operations unde...

  13. The Total Risk Analysis of Large Dams under Flood Hazards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Chen

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Dams and reservoirs are useful systems in water conservancy projects; however, they also pose a high-risk potential for large downstream areas. Flood, as the driving force of dam overtopping, is the main cause of dam failure. Dam floods and their risks are of interest to researchers and managers. In hydraulic engineering, there is a growing tendency to evaluate dam flood risk based on statistical and probabilistic methods that are unsuitable for the situations with rare historical data or low flood probability, so a more reasonable dam flood risk analysis method with fewer application restrictions is needed. Therefore, different from previous studies, this study develops a flood risk analysis method for large dams based on the concept of total risk factor (TRF used initially in dam seismic risk analysis. The proposed method is not affected by the adequacy of historical data or the low probability of flood and is capable of analyzing the dam structure influence, the flood vulnerability of the dam site, and downstream risk as well as estimating the TRF of each dam and assigning corresponding risk classes to each dam. Application to large dams in the Dadu River Basin, Southwestern China, demonstrates that the proposed method provides quick risk estimation and comparison, which can help local management officials perform more detailed dam safety evaluations for useful risk management information.

  14. Risk Analysis for Environmental Health Triage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bogen, K T

    2005-01-01

    The Homeland Security Act mandates development of a national, risk-based system to support planning for, response to and recovery from emergency situations involving large-scale toxic exposures. To prepare for and manage consequences effectively, planners and responders need not only to identify zones of potentially elevated individual risk, but also to predict expected casualties. Emergency response support systems now define ''consequences'' by mapping areas in which toxic chemical concentrations do or may exceed Acute Exposure Guideline Levels (AEGLs) or similar guidelines. However, because AEGLs do not estimate expected risks, current unqualified claims that such maps support consequence management are misleading. Intentionally protective, AEGLs incorporate various safety/uncertainty factors depending on scope and quality of chemical-specific toxicity data. Some of these factors are irrelevant, and others need to be modified, whenever resource constraints or exposure-scenario complexities require responders to make critical trade-off (triage) decisions in order to minimize expected casualties. AEGL-exceedance zones cannot consistently be aggregated, compared, or used to calculate expected casualties, and so may seriously misguide emergency response triage decisions. Methods and tools well established and readily available to support environmental health protection are not yet developed for chemically related environmental health triage. Effective triage decisions involving chemical risks require a new assessment approach that focuses on best estimates of likely casualties, rather than on upper plausible bounds of individual risk. If risk-based consequence management is to become a reality, federal agencies tasked with supporting emergency response must actively coordinate to foster new methods that can support effective environmental health triage

  15. Risk analysis: divergent models and convergent interpretations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carnes, B. A.; Gavrilova, N.

    2001-01-01

    Material presented at a NASA-sponsored workshop on risk models for exposure conditions relevant to prolonged space flight are described in this paper. Analyses used mortality data from experiments conducted at Argonne National Laboratory on the long-term effects of external whole-body irradiation on B6CF1 mice by 60Co gamma rays and fission neutrons delivered as a single exposure or protracted over either 24 or 60 once-weekly exposures. The maximum dose considered was restricted to 1 Gy for neutrons and 10 Gy for gamma rays. Proportional hazard models were used to investigate the shape of the dose response at these lower doses for deaths caused by solid-tissue tumors and tumors of either connective or epithelial tissue origin. For protracted exposures, a significant mortality effect was detected at a neutron dose of 14 cGy and a gamma-ray dose of 3 Gy. For single exposures, radiation-induced mortality for neutrons also occurred within the range of 10-20 cGy, but dropped to 86 cGy for gamma rays. Plots of risk relative to control estimated for each observed dose gave a visual impression of nonlinearity for both neutrons and gamma rays. At least for solid-tissue tumors, male and female mortality was nearly identical for gamma-ray exposures, but mortality risks for females were higher than for males for neutron exposures. As expected, protracting the gamma-ray dose reduced mortality risks. Although curvature consistent with that observed visually could be detected by a model parameterized to detect curvature, a relative risk term containing only a simple term for total dose was usually sufficient to describe the dose response. Although detectable mortality for the three pathology end points considered typically occurred at the same level of dose, the highest risks were almost always associated with deaths caused by tumors of epithelial tissue origin.

  16. Epidemiological analysis of HTLV-1 and HTLV-2 infection among different population in Central China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunyun Ma

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: HTLV-1 and HTLV-2 are retroviruses linked etiologically to various human diseases, and both of them can be transmitted by vertical route, sexual intercourse, blood transfusion and intravenous drug use. Recently, some HTLV-infected cases have been reported and this virus is mainly present in the Southeast coastal areas in China, but has not been studied for the people in Central China. OBJECTIVES: To know the epidemiologic patterns among different population samples in Central China and further identify risk factor for HTLV-1 and HTLV-2 infection. METHODS: From January 2008 to December 2011, 5480 blood samples were screened for HTLV-1/2 antibodies by using enzyme immunoassay, followed by Western Blot. RESULTS: The prevalence of HTLV-1 and HTLV-2 was found with infection rates 0.13% and 0.05% among all population samples for HTLV-1 and HTLV-2, respectively. The highest percentages of infection, 0.39% and 0.20%, were found in the high risk group, while only 0.06% and 0.03% in the blood donor group. There was only one case of HTLV-1 infection (0.11% among patients with malignant hematological diseases. Of seven HTLV-1 positive cases, six were co-infected with HBV, two with HCV and one with HIV. Among three HTLV-2 positive individuals all were co-infected with HBV, one with HCV. CONCLUSIONS: HTLV-1 and HTLV-2 have been detected in the Central China at low prevalence, with the higher infection rate among high risk group. It was also found that co-infection of HTLV-1/2 with HIV and HBV occurred, presumably due to their similar transmission routes. HTLV-1/2 antibody screen among certain population would be important to prevent the spread of the viruses.

  17. Stress Analysis in Managing the Region’s Budget Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalya Pavlovna Pazdnikova

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The article addresses the implementation of budget risk management methods into the practices of governmental authorities. Drawing on the example of a particular region the article aims to demonstrate the possible methods of budget risk management. The authors refine the existing approaches to the notion of risk in its relation to budget system by introducing the notion of “budget risk.” Here the focus is the risk of default of budget spending in full which causes underfunding of territories and decrease in quality of life in the region. The authors have particularized the classification of budget risks and grouped together the criteria and factors which significantly influence the assessment and choice of method to manage budget risks. They hypothesize that budget risk is a financial risk. Therefore, the methods of financial risks management can be applied to budget risks management. The authors suggest a methodological approach to risk assessment based on correlation and regression analysis of program financing. The application of Kendall rank correlation coefficient allowed to assess the efficiency of budget spending on the implementation of state programs in Perm Krai. Two clusters — “Nature management and infrastructure” and “Public security” — turned out to be in the zone of high budget risk. The method of stress analysis, which consists in calculating Value at Risk (VaR, was applied to budget risks that in terms of probability are classified as critical. In order to assess risk as probability rate, the amount of Perm Krai deficit budget was calculated as induced variable from budget revenues and spending. The results demonstrate that contemporary management of public resources in the regions calls for the implementation of new management tools of higher quality and budget risk management is one of them.

  18. Chemical analysis and potential health risks of hookah charcoal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Elsayed, Yehya, E-mail: yelsayed@aus.edu; Dalibalta, Sarah, E-mail: sdalibalta@aus.edu; Abu-Farha, Nedal

    2016-11-01

    Hookah (waterpipe) smoking is a very common practice that has spread globally. There is growing evidence on the hazardous consequences of smoking hookah, with studies indicating that its harmful effects are comparable to cigarette smoking if not worse. Charcoal is commonly used as a heating source for hookah smoke. Although charcoal briquettes are thought to be one of the major contributors to toxicity, their composition and impact on the smoke generated remains largely unidentified. This study aims to analyze the elemental composition of five different raw synthetic and natural charcoals by using Carbon-Hydrogen-Nitrogen (CHN) analysis, inductively coupled plasma (ICP), and scanning electron microscopy coupled with energy dispersive X-Ray spectrometry (SEM-EDS). Elemental analysis showed that the raw charcoals contain heavy metals such as zinc, iron, cadmium, vanadium, aluminum, lead, chromium, manganese and cobalt at concentrations similar, if not higher than, cigarettes. In addition, thermal desorption-gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (TD-GC–MS) was used to analyze the chemical composition of the smoke produced from burning the charcoal samples. The smoke emitted from charcoal was found to be the source of numerous compounds which could be hazardous to health. A total of seven carcinogens, 39 central nervous system depressants and 31 respiratory irritants were identified. - Highlights: • Hookah charcoals, mainly synthetic brands, contains trace/heavy metals in concentrations exceeding those in cigarettes. • The concentration of lead in synthetic charcoal briquettes may impose adverse effects on human health. • The amount of nitrogen in synthetic charcoal is comparable to that reported in cigarettes. • Chemical profiling of smoke emitted from hookah charcoal reveals many compounds associated with potential health risks.

  19. Chemical analysis and potential health risks of hookah charcoal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elsayed, Yehya; Dalibalta, Sarah; Abu-Farha, Nedal

    2016-01-01

    Hookah (waterpipe) smoking is a very common practice that has spread globally. There is growing evidence on the hazardous consequences of smoking hookah, with studies indicating that its harmful effects are comparable to cigarette smoking if not worse. Charcoal is commonly used as a heating source for hookah smoke. Although charcoal briquettes are thought to be one of the major contributors to toxicity, their composition and impact on the smoke generated remains largely unidentified. This study aims to analyze the elemental composition of five different raw synthetic and natural charcoals by using Carbon-Hydrogen-Nitrogen (CHN) analysis, inductively coupled plasma (ICP), and scanning electron microscopy coupled with energy dispersive X-Ray spectrometry (SEM-EDS). Elemental analysis showed that the raw charcoals contain heavy metals such as zinc, iron, cadmium, vanadium, aluminum, lead, chromium, manganese and cobalt at concentrations similar, if not higher than, cigarettes. In addition, thermal desorption-gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (TD-GC–MS) was used to analyze the chemical composition of the smoke produced from burning the charcoal samples. The smoke emitted from charcoal was found to be the source of numerous compounds which could be hazardous to health. A total of seven carcinogens, 39 central nervous system depressants and 31 respiratory irritants were identified. - Highlights: • Hookah charcoals, mainly synthetic brands, contains trace/heavy metals in concentrations exceeding those in cigarettes. • The concentration of lead in synthetic charcoal briquettes may impose adverse effects on human health. • The amount of nitrogen in synthetic charcoal is comparable to that reported in cigarettes. • Chemical profiling of smoke emitted from hookah charcoal reveals many compounds associated with potential health risks.

  20. Parenting and environmental risk : an examination of child loss and maternal involvement among Bofi foragers in Central Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fouts, Hillary N; Silverman, Lisa S

    2015-03-01

    The majority of adaptationist models and research related to parenting strategies have focused on extrinsic or population-level risk as predictors of parenting. However, some researchers have called for greater consideration of cultural factors as well as on intracultural variation in parenting. This study uses a biocultural approach to examine intracultural variation in environmental risk and parenting among the Bofi foragers in Central Africa. In particular, we examine 30 mothers' experiences of child loss as a predictor of variation in maternal involvement (proximity, holding, and affection) with their young children. Multivariate and univariate analyses indicate that child loss accounted for substantial variation in maternal behaviors and was predictive of maternal holding and the expression of physical affection. In sum, our findings indicate that intracultural variation in child loss is predictive of maternal involvement with young children and that a biocultural approach is useful in explaining this variation.

  1. Modeling issues in nuclear plant fire risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siu, N.

    1989-01-01

    This paper discusses various issues associated with current models for analyzing the risk due to fires in nuclear power plants. Particular emphasis is placed on the fire growth and suppression models, these being unique to the fire portion of the overall risk analysis. Potentially significant modeling improvements are identified; also discussed are a variety of modeling issues where improvements will help the credibility of the analysis, without necessarily changing the computed risk significantly. The mechanistic modeling of fire initiation is identified as a particularly promising improvement for reducing the uncertainties in the predicted risk. 17 refs., 5 figs. 2 tabs

  2. LDC commodity risk analysis and recommendations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-01-01

    Under the current operation of the new competitive electricity market in Ontario, local distribution companies (LDCs) are required to pay the monthly invoice of the Independent Market Operator (IMO) before they collect from end-users for the consumption period covered by the invoice, with no clear guarantee that the recovery will occur. This situation creates a major cash flow problem and financial risk for LDCs and threatens the integrity and stability of the electricity market. This paper described 3 features of Ontario's competitive electricity market that create financial and commodity risk. The first problem is that there is no limit on how high prices can rise. Increases in wholesale commodity prices can result in a situation where the amount of the IMO's invoice is greater than the LDC's ability to pay at the time of receipt. Secondly, the LDC bears a 100 per cent payment obligation to the IMO administrator of the wholesale market. The third problem is that LDCs bear payment default risk from all consumers in the Ontario market, including electricity retailers. This paper presents some specific policy solutions that can protect the market from this threat. It was suggested that in order to protect the integrity of Ontario's electricity market during high prices, a policy must be drafted to address the commodity price financing risk (CPFR) issue. The policy must also define what happens if prices increase past the LDCs financing obligation limit. tabs., figs

  3. Risk Analysis and Security Countermeasure Selection

    CERN Document Server

    Norman, Thomas L

    2009-01-01

    Explains how to evaluate the appropriateness of security countermeasures, from a cost-effectiveness perspective. This title guides readers from basic principles to complex processes in a step-by-step fashion, evaluating DHS-approved risk assessment methods, including CARVER, API/NPRA, RAMCAP, and various Sandia methodologies

  4. Market analysis and risk management of EU emissions trading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ollikainen, M.; Ollikka, K.; Aatola, P.; Ahonen, H.M.; Pohjola, T.; Kumpulainen, A.; Lappalainen, E.

    2006-01-01

    The first EU emissions trading period commenced on 1 January 2005. It implies new challenges to companies included in the scheme. A central challenge is the uncertainty related to the markets. In order to manage risks and profitability companies need to be able to estimate future price developments of emission allowances. University of Helsinki is conducting a research project in cooperation with Helsinki University of Technology that will provide necessary information for analyzing emission allowance markets and create risk management competence. The objectives of the research project are 1) to develop a price estimation model for EU emission allowances and 2) to develop risk management competence related to EU emission allowances. With the price estimation model the short-term price developments of EU emission allowances can be estimated. By utilizing the model companies can reduce uncertainties related to the markets. The project will also deliver a general risk management model for emission allowances that aims at improving competitiveness of companies. (orig.)

  5. RISK ANALYSIS AND EVALUATION FOR CRITICAL LOGISTICAL INFRASTRUCTURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sascha Düerkop

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Logistical infrastructure builds the backbone of an economy. Without an effective logistical infrastructure in place, the supply for both enterprises and consumers might not be met. But even a high-quality logistical infrastructure can be threatened by risks. Thus, it is important to identify, analyse, and evaluate risks for logistical infrastructure that might threaten logistical processes. Only if those risks are known and their impact estimated, decision makers can implement counteractive measures to reduce risks. In this article, we develop a network-based approach that allows for the evaluation of risks and their consequences onto the logistical network. We will demonstrate the relevance of this approach by applying it to the logistics network of the central German state of Hesse. Even though transport data is extensively tracked and recorded nowadays, typical daily risks, like accidents on a motorway, and extraordinary risks, like a bridge at risk to collapse, terrorist attacks or climate-related catastrophes, are not systematically anticipated. Several studies unveiled recently that the overall impact for an economy of possible failures of single nodes and/or edges in a network are not calculated, and particularly critical edges are not identified in advance. We address this information gap by a method that helps to identify and quantify risks in a given network. To reach this objective, we define a mathematical optimization model that quantifies the current “risk-related costs” of the overall network and quantify the risk by investigating the change of the overall costs in the case a risk is realized.

  6. How to Perform an Ethical Risk Analysis (eRA).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansson, Sven Ove

    2018-02-26

    Ethical analysis is often needed in the preparation of policy decisions on risk. A three-step method is proposed for performing an ethical risk analysis (eRA). In the first step, the people concerned are identified and categorized in terms of the distinct but compatible roles of being risk-exposed, a beneficiary, or a decisionmaker. In the second step, a more detailed classification of roles and role combinations is performed, and ethically problematic role combinations are identified. In the third step, further ethical deliberation takes place, with an emphasis on individual risk-benefit weighing, distributional analysis, rights analysis, and power analysis. Ethical issues pertaining to subsidiary risk roles, such as those of experts and journalists, are also treated in this phase. An eRA should supplement, not replace, a traditional risk analysis that puts emphasis on the probabilities and severities of undesirable events but does not cover ethical issues such as agency, interpersonal relationships, and justice. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

  7. A neutron polarisation analysis study of the 'central' peak in single-crystal praseodymium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burke, S.K.; Stirling, W.G.; McEwen, K.A.; Salford Univ.

    1981-01-01

    The technique of neutron polarisation analysis has been used to examine the broad 'central' peak in paramagnetic praseodymium. Measurements over the temperature range 1.2-25 K show that these peaks, observed at reciprocal space positions (Q 1 , 0, 2m + 1) with Q 1 = 0.11 tau 100 , are entirely magnetic in character. The relationship between these short-range magnetic correlations and the long-range antiferromagnetic ordering process is discussed. (author)

  8. Exergy analysis of a centralized air conditioning system for ice water

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Armas, Juan C; Lapido, Margarita J; Castellanos, Juan A

    2006-01-01

    An exergetic analysis of a centralized system of air conditioning, based on a vapor compression refrigeration cycle, appears in this article. The investigation allows to calculate the irreversibilities (exergy destruction) in the main components of the refrigeration cycle as well as to evaluate the sensitivity of this indicator when the operating conditions changes. As main result the most sensible components of the cycle are identified, information that will be useful in order to define strategies of operation focused to the power efficiency increase.

  9. Geological analysis of paleozoic large-scale faulting in the south-central Pyrenees

    OpenAIRE

    Speksnijder, A.

    1986-01-01

    Detailed structural and sedimentological analysis reveals the existence of an east-west directed fundamental fault zone in the south-central Pyrenees, which has been intermittently active from (at least) the Devonian on. Emphasis is laid on the stUdy of fault-bounded post-Variscan (StephanoPermian) sedimentary basins, and the influence of Late Paleozoic faulting on the underlying Variscan basement. The present structure of the basement is rather complex as it results from multiple Variscan an...

  10. Analysis of central enterprise architecture elements in models of six eHealth projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Virkanen, Hannu; Mykkänen, Juha

    2014-01-01

    Large-scale initiatives for eHealth services have been established in many countries on regional or national level. The use of Enterprise Architecture has been suggested as a methodology to govern and support the initiation, specification and implementation of large-scale initiatives including the governance of business changes as well as information technology. This study reports an analysis of six health IT projects in relation to Enterprise Architecture elements, focusing on central EA elements and viewpoints in different projects.

  11. Small-for-gestational age prevalence risk factors in central Appalachian states with mountain-top mining.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferdosi, Hamid; Lamm, Steve H; Afari-Dwamena, Nana Ama; Dissen, Elisabeth; Chen, Rusan; Li, Ji; Feinleib, Manning

    2018-01-01

    To identify risk factors for small-for-gestational age (SGA) for counties in central Appalachian states (Kentucky (KY), Tennessee (TN), Virginia (VA), and West Virginia (WV)) with varied coal mining activities. Live birth certificate files (1990-2002) were used for obtaining SGA prevalence rates for mothers based on the coal mining activities of their counties of residence, mountain-top mining (MTM) activities, underground mining activities but no mountain-top mining activity (non-MTM), or having no mining activities (non-mining). Co-variable information, including maternal tobacco use, was also obtained from the live birth certificate. Adjusted odds ratios were obtained using multivariable logistic regression comparing SGA prevalence rates for counties with coal mining activities to those without coal mining activities and comparing SGA prevalence rates for counties with coal mining activities for those with and without mountain-top mining activities. Comparisons were also made among those who had reported tobacco use and those who had not. Both tobacco use prevalence and SGA prevalence were significantly greater for mining counties than for non-mining counties and for MTM counties than for non-MTM counties. Adjustment for tobacco use alone explained 50% of the increased SGA risk for mining counties and 75% of the risk for MTM counties, including demographic pre-natal care co-variables that explained 75% of the increased SGA risk for mining counties and 100% of the risk for MTM. The increased risk of SGA was limited to the third trimester births among tobacco users and independent of the mining activities of their counties of residence. This study demonstrates that the increased prevalence of SGA among residents of counties with mining activity was primarily explained by the differences in maternal tobacco use prevalence, an effect that itself was gestational-age dependent. Self-reported tobacco use marked the population at the increased risk for SGA in central

  12. Flood Risk Assessment Based On Security Deficit Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beck, J.; Metzger, R.; Hingray, B.; Musy, A.

    Risk is a human perception: a given risk may be considered as acceptable or unac- ceptable depending on the group that has to face that risk. Flood risk analysis of- ten estimates economic losses from damages, but neglects the question of accept- able/unacceptable risk. With input from land use managers, politicians and other stakeholders, risk assessment based on security deficit analysis determines objects with unacceptable risk and their degree of security deficit. Such a risk assessment methodology, initially developed by the Swiss federal authorities, is illustrated by its application on a reach of the Alzette River (Luxembourg) in the framework of the IRMA-SPONGE FRHYMAP project. Flood risk assessment always involves a flood hazard analysis, an exposed object vulnerability analysis, and an analysis combing the results of these two previous analyses. The flood hazard analysis was done with the quasi-2D hydraulic model FldPln to produce flood intensity maps. Flood intensity was determined by the water height and velocity. Object data for the vulnerability analysis, provided by the Luxembourg government, were classified according to their potential damage. Potential damage is expressed in terms of direct, human life and secondary losses. A thematic map was produced to show the object classification. Protection goals were then attributed to the object classes. Protection goals are assigned in terms of an acceptable flood intensity for a certain flood frequency. This is where input from land use managers and politicians comes into play. The perception of risk in the re- gion or country influences the protection goal assignment. Protection goals as used in Switzerland were used in this project. Thematic maps showing the protection goals of each object in the case study area for a given flood frequency were produced. Com- parison between an object's protection goal and the intensity of the flood that touched the object determine the acceptability of the risk and the

  13. Race and wildfire risk perceptions among rural forestland owners in north-central Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miriam Wyman; Sparkle Malone; Taylor Stein; Cassandra Johnson

    2012-01-01

    The southern United States is susceptible to wildfire, from its climate, growing seasons, lightning frequency, and decades of fire suppression. With much known about wildfire’s biophysical risks, less is understood about sociodemographic obstacles, including race, income, and education. Blacks in the rural southeastern United States are typically among the most...

  14. Predictors of extinction risk of passerine birds in a Central European country

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Koleček, Jaroslav; Albrecht, Tomáš; Reif, J.

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 17, č. 5 (2014), s. 498-506 ISSN 1367-9430 Institutional support: RVO:68081766 Keywords : red list * life history * habitat specialization * distribution * climate change * threatened species * extinction risk * passerine Subject RIV: EG - Zoology Impact factor: 2.852, year: 2014

  15. Silico-tuberculosis and associated risk factors in central province of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    tuberculosis. This article review the frequency of silicosis and tuberculosis in workers who exposed to silica and evaluate influencing factors that may increase the risk of silico-tuberculosis. Methods: an analytical cross-sectional study was performed in ...

  16. On the validation of risk analysis-A commentary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosqvist, Tony

    2010-01-01

    Aven and Heide (2009) [1] provided interesting views on the reliability and validation of risk analysis. The four validation criteria presented are contrasted with modelling features related to the relative frequency-based and Bayesian approaches to risk analysis. In this commentary I would like to bring forth some issues on validation that partly confirm and partly suggest changes in the interpretation of the introduced validation criteria-especially, in the context of low probability-high consequence systems. The mental model of an expert in assessing probabilities is argued to be a key notion in understanding the validation of a risk analysis.

  17. Risk analysis methodologies for the transportation of radioactive materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Geffen, C.A.

    1983-05-01

    Different methodologies have evolved for consideration of each of the many steps required in performing a transportation risk analysis. Although there are techniques that attempt to consider the entire scope of the analysis in depth, most applications of risk assessment to the transportation of nuclear fuel cycle materials develop specific methodologies for only one or two parts of the analysis. The remaining steps are simplified for the analyst by narrowing the scope of the effort (such as evaluating risks for only one material, or a particular set of accident scenarios, or movement over a specific route); performing a qualitative rather than a quantitative analysis (probabilities may be simply ranked as high, medium or low, for instance); or assuming some generic, conservative conditions for potential release fractions and consequences. This paper presents a discussion of the history and present state-of-the-art of transportation risk analysis methodologies. Many reports in this area were reviewed as background for this presentation. The literature review, while not exhaustive, did result in a complete representation of the major methods used today in transportation risk analysis. These methodologies primarily include the use of severity categories based on historical accident data, the analysis of specifically assumed accident sequences for the transportation activity of interest, and the use of fault or event tree analysis. Although the focus of this work has generally been on potential impacts to public groups, some effort has been expended in the estimation of risks to occupational groups in transportation activities

  18. Risk analysis of complex hydrogen infrastructures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Markert, Frank; Marangon, Alessia; Carcassi, Marco

    2015-01-01

    Developing a future sustainable refuelling station network is the next important step to establish hydrogen as a fuel for vehicles and related services. Such stations will most likely be integrated in existing refuelling stations and result in multi-fuel storages with a variety of fuels being...... to improve the quality of biomass based fuels. Therefore, hydrogen supply and distribution chains will likely not only serve to fulfil the demands of refuelling, but may also be important for the wider electrical power and fuel industries. Based on an integrated hydrogen supply and distribution network...... assessment methodologies, and how functional models could support coherent risk and sustainability (Risk Assessment, Life Cycle Assessment /Life Cycle Costing) assessments, in order to find optimal solutions for the development of the infrastructure on a regional or national level....

  19. Abnormal intrinsic functional hubs in alcohol dependence: evidence from a voxelwise degree centrality analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luo X

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Xiaoping Luo,1,2 Linghong Guo,1 Xi-Jian Dai,3 Qinglai Wang,2 Wenzhong Zhu,2 Xinjun Miao,2 Honghan Gong1 1Department of Radiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Nangchang, Jiangxi, People’s Republic of China; 2Department of Radiology, Wenzhou Chinese Medicine Hospital, Wenzhou, Zhejiang, People’s Republic of China; 3Department of Medical Imaging, Jinling Hospital, Medical School of Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, People’s Republic of China Objective: To explore the abnormal intrinsic functional hubs in alcohol dependence using voxelwise degree centrality analysis approach, and their relationships with clinical features.Materials and methods: Twenty-four male alcohol dependence subjects free of medicine (mean age, 50.21±9.62 years and 24 age- and education-matched male healthy controls (mean age, 50.29±8.92 years were recruited. The alcohol use disorders identification test and the severity of alcohol dependence questionnaire (SADQ were administered to assess the severity of alcohol craving. Voxelwise degree centrality approach was used to assess the abnormal intrinsic functional hubs features in alcohol dependence. Simple linear regression analysis was performed to investigate the relationships between the clinical features and abnormal intrinsic functional hubs.Results: Compared with healthy controls, alcohol dependence subjects exhibited significantly different degree centrality values in widespread left lateralization brain areas, including higher degree centrality values in the left precentral gyrus (BA 6, right hippocampus (BA 35, 36, and left orbitofrontal cortex (BA 11 and lower degree centrality values in the left cerebellum posterior lobe, bilateral secondary visual network (BA 18, and left precuneus (BA 7, 19. SADQ revealed a negative linear correlation with the degree centrality value in the left precentral gyrus (R2=0.296, P=0.006.Conclusion: The specific abnormal intrinsic functional hubs appear

  20. HIV seroprevalence and high-risk sexual behavior among female sex workers in Central Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandes, Fernanda R P; Mousquer, Gina J; Castro, Lisie S; Puga, Marco A; Tanaka, Tayana S O; Rezende, Grazielli R; Pinto, Clarice S; Bandeira, Larissa M; Martins, Regina M B; Francisco, Roberta B L; Teles, Sheila A; Motta-Castro, Ana R C

    2014-01-01

    Female sex workers (FSWs) are considered a high-risk group for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection due to their social vulnerability and factors associated with their work. We estimated the prevalence of HIV, and identified viral subtypes and risk factors among FSWs. A cross-sectional study using respondent-driven sampling (RDS) method was conducted among 402 FSWs in Campo Grande city, Brazil, from 2009 to 2011. Participants were interviewed using a standardized questionnaire about sociodemograpic characteristics and risk behavior. Blood samples were collected for serological testing of HIV. Of the 402 FSWs, median age and age of initiating sex work were 25 years (Interquartile range [IQR]: 9) and 20 years (IQR: 6), respectively. The majority reported use of alcohol (88.5%), had 5-9 years (median: 9; IQR: 3) of schooling (54.5%), 68.6% had tattoos/body piercings, and 45.1% had more than seven clients per week (median: 7; IQR: 10). Only 32.9% of FSW reported using a condom with nonpaying partners in the last sexual contact. Prevalence of HIV infection was 1.0% (95% CI: 0.1-2.6%). Genotyping for HIV-1 performed on three samples detected subtypes B, C, and F1. Sex work in the Midwestern region of Brazil is characterized by reduced education, large numbers of clients per week, and inconsistent condom use, mainly with nonpaying partners. Although prevalence of HIV infection is currently low, elevated levels of high-risk sexual behavior confirm a need to implement prevention measures. Specific interventions targeting FSWs must emphasize the risk associated with both clients and nonpaying partners while providing knowledge about HIV prevention.

  1. Rare earth elements in street dust and associated health risk in a municipal industrial base of central China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Guangyi; Li, Zhonggen; Liu, Ting; Chen, Ji; Wu, Tingting; Feng, Xinbin

    2017-12-01

    The content levels, distribution characteristics, and health risks associated with 15 rare earth elements (REEs) in urban street dust from an industrial city, Zhuzhou, in central China were investigated. The total REE content (∑REE) ranged from 66.1 to 237.4 mg kg -1 , with an average of 115.9 mg kg -1 , which is lower than that of Chinese background soil and Yangtze river sediment. Average content of the individual REE in street dust decreased in the order Ce > La > Nd > Y > Pr > Sm > Gd > Dy > Er > Yb > Eu > Ho > Tb > Tm > Lu. The chondrite-normalized REE pattern indicated light REE (LREE) enrichment, a relatively steep LREE trend, heavy REE (HREE) depletion, a flat HREE trend, a Eu-negative anomaly and a Ce-positive anomaly. Foremost heavy local soil and to less degree anthropogenic pollution are the main sources of REE present in street dust. Health risk associated with the exposure of REE in street dust was assessed based on the carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic effect and lifetime average daily dose. The obtained cancer and non-cancer risk values prompt for no augmented health hazard. However, children had greater health risks than that of adults.

  2. Analysis of power system collapse risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eleschova, Z.; Belan, A.; Cintula, B.; Smitkova, M.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper are analysed the initialization events with considering different scenarios and their impact on the power system transient stability. As an initialization event is considered a short circuit at various places of power line. In each scenario are considered protection failures (backup protection), circuit-breaker failures (breaker failure relay activation). The individual states are analysed and the power system collapse risk assessed based on the simulation experiments results (Authors)

  3. Bayesian-network-based safety risk analysis in construction projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Limao; Wu, Xianguo; Skibniewski, Miroslaw J.; Zhong, Jingbing; Lu, Yujie

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a systemic decision support approach for safety risk analysis under uncertainty in tunnel construction. Fuzzy Bayesian Networks (FBN) is used to investigate causal relationships between tunnel-induced damage and its influential variables based upon the risk/hazard mechanism analysis. Aiming to overcome limitations on the current probability estimation, an expert confidence indicator is proposed to ensure the reliability of the surveyed data for fuzzy probability assessment of basic risk factors. A detailed fuzzy-based inference procedure is developed, which has a capacity of implementing deductive reasoning, sensitivity analysis and abductive reasoning. The “3σ criterion” is adopted to calculate the characteristic values of a triangular fuzzy number in the probability fuzzification process, and the α-weighted valuation method is adopted for defuzzification. The construction safety analysis progress is extended to the entire life cycle of risk-prone events, including the pre-accident, during-construction continuous and post-accident control. A typical hazard concerning the tunnel leakage in the construction of Wuhan Yangtze Metro Tunnel in China is presented as a case study, in order to verify the applicability of the proposed approach. The results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed approach and its application potential. A comparison of advantages and disadvantages between FBN and fuzzy fault tree analysis (FFTA) as risk analysis tools is also conducted. The proposed approach can be used to provide guidelines for safety analysis and management in construction projects, and thus increase the likelihood of a successful project in a complex environment. - Highlights: • A systemic Bayesian network based approach for safety risk analysis is developed. • An expert confidence indicator for probability fuzzification is proposed. • Safety risk analysis progress is extended to entire life cycle of risk-prone events. • A typical

  4. Environmental risk assessment in GMO analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pirondini, Andrea; Marmiroli, Nelson

    2010-01-01

    Genetically modified or engineered organisms (GMOs, GEOs) are utilised in agriculture, expressing traits of interest, such as insect or herbicide resistance. Soybean, maize, cotton and oilseed rape are the GM crops with the largest acreage in the world. The distribution of GM acreage in the different countries is related with the different positions concerning labelling of GMO products: based on the principle of substantial equivalence, or rather based on the precautionary principle. The paper provides an overview on how the risks associated with release of GMO in the environments can be analysed and predicted, in view of a possible coexistence of GM and non-GM organisms in agriculture.Risk assessment procedures, both qualitative and quantitative, are compared in the context of application to GMOs considering also legislation requirements (Directive 2001/18/EC). Criteria and measurable properties to assess harm for human health and environmental safety are listed, and the possible consequences are evaluated in terms of significance.Finally, a mapping of the possible risks deriving from GMO release is reported, focusing on gene transfer to related species, horizontal gene transfer, direct and indirect effects on non target organisms, development of resistance in target organisms, and effects on biodiversity.

  5. Efficiency Analysis of Independent and Centralized Heating Systems for Residential Buildings in Northern Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabio Rinaldi

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available The primary energy consumption in residential buildings is determined by the envelope thermal characteristics, air change, outside climatic data, users’ behaviour and the adopted heating system and its control. The new Italian regulations strongly suggest the installation of centralized boilers in renovated buildings with more than four apartments. This work aims to investigate the differences in primary energy consumption and efficiency among several independent and centralized heating systems installed in Northern Italy. The analysis is carried out through the following approach: firstly building heating loads are evaluated using the software TRNSYS® and, then, heating system performances are estimated through a simplified model based on the European Standard EN 15316. Several heating systems have been analyzed, evaluating: independent and centralized configurations, condensing and traditional boilers, radiator and radiant floor emitters and solar plant integration. The heating systems are applied to four buildings dating back to 2010, 2006, 1960s and 1930s. All the combinations of heating systems and buildings are analyzed in detail, evaluating efficiency and primary energy consumption. In most of the cases the choice between centralized and independent heating systems has minor effects on primary energy consumption, less than 3%: the introduction of condensing technology and the integration with solar heating plant can reduce energy consumption by 11% and 29%, respectively.

  6. Analysis of Alternatives for Risk Assessment Methodologies and Tools

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nachtigal, Noel M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). System Analytics; Fruetel, Julia A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Gleason, Nathaniel J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Helms, Jovana [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Imbro, Dennis Raymond [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Sumner, Matthew C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis

    2013-10-01

    The purpose of this document is to provide a basic overview and understanding of risk assessment methodologies and tools from the literature and to assess the suitability of these methodologies and tools for cyber risk assessment. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) performed this review in support of risk modeling activities performed for the Stakeholder Engagement and Cyber Infrastructure Resilience (SECIR) division of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Office of Cybersecurity and Communications (CS&C). The set of methodologies and tools covered in this document is not intended to be exhaustive; instead, it focuses on those that are commonly used in the risk assessment community. The classification of methodologies and tools was performed by a group of analysts with experience in risk analysis and cybersecurity, and the resulting analysis of alternatives has been tailored to address the needs of a cyber risk assessment.

  7. Risk factors of Acute Respiratory Infection (ARI in under-fives in a rural hospital of Central India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amar M. Taksande

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Acute Respiratory Infection (ARI is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in developing countries in children especially in under-fives. Every year in the world, about 13 million under-5 children dies, 95% from developing countries; one third of total deaths are due to ARI. The aim of this study was to identify the significant risk factors for ARI in children less than five years of age living in rural areas of Central India.Methods: A hospital based case control study was undertaken to determine risk factors associated with respiratory tract infections in children. Children less than 5 years admitted in a pediatric ward with diagnosis of ARI were enrolled in the study as cases (n = 300 while the same number of controls (n = 300 were selected from neighborhood and were matched for age, sex and religion. Details of risk factors in cases and controls were recorded in pre-designed proforma. Results: A significant association was found between ARI and lack of breastfeeding, nutritional status, immunization status, delayed weaning, prelactal feeding, living in overcrowded conditions, mothers’ literacy status, low birth weight and prematurity. Among the environmental variables, inadequate ventilation, improper housing condition, exposure to indoor air pollution in form of combustion from fuel used for cooking were found as significant risk factors for ARI in under-fives.Conclusions: ARIs are affected by socio-demographic and socio-cultural risk factors, which can be modified with simple interventions. The various risk factors identified in this study were lack of breastfeeding, undernutrition, delayed weaning, overcrowding and prelactal feeding.

  8. The social perspective of desertification: Analysis of the public administration perception in Central America

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garay Romero, Ingrid Carolina; Cabero Dieguez, Valentin

    2013-01-01

    Desertification is a complex problem and not only represents terrestrial ecosystems degradation. Today, it is well known that this process is linked to environmental deterioration as well as to economic and social factors, producing relevant impact in food security, poverty, migration and imbalance in many countries. Desertification perception analysis is essential in the design of the policies to fight this problem. Perception analysis in Central America is a very controversial issue and should be part of administration instruments and application strategies such as international agreements that will be included in public policies of the different States.

  9. Real Estate Appraisal in Central-Eastern Europe: Comparative Analysis of Poland and Slovakia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adamuscin Andrej

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The countries in Central-Eastern Europe have been subjected to dynamic economic changes. Researchers from Poland and Slovakia study the history of the creation of and rules by which the real estate appraiser’s profession functions. They also present the methodological basics for property appraisals. The original value of this article is a comparative analysis depicting the similarities and differences occurring in the research area, in two countries from the same region of Europe. The analysis may also influence the methodological discussions of specialists concerning the correctness and purpose of certain approaches, methods or techniques of property appraisal.

  10. Work program analysis - defining the capability/risk plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hrinivich, W.A.

    2004-01-01

    Bruce Power has developed and implemented an analysis methodology (Work Program Analysis) to assess and address corporate business risk associated with work group capability. Work Program Analysis is proving to be an excellent tool for identifying and supporting key business decisions facing the line and senior management at Bruce Power. The following describes the methodology, its application and the results achieved. (author)

  11. Human health risk assessment of mercury vapor around artisanal small-scale gold mining area, Palu city, Central Sulawesi, Indonesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakazawa, Koyomi; Nagafuchi, Osamu; Kawakami, Tomonori; Inoue, Takanobu; Yokota, Kuriko; Serikawa, Yuka; Cyio, Basir; Elvince, Rosana

    2016-02-01

    Emissions of elemental mercury, Hg(0), from artisanal small-scale gold mining activities accounted for 37% of total global Hg(0) emissions in 2010. People who live near gold-mining areas may be exposed to high concentrations of Hg(0). Here, we assessed the human health risk due to Hg(0) exposure among residents of Palu city (Central Sulawesi Province, Indonesia). The area around the city has more than 60t of gold reserves, and the nearby Poboya area is the most active gold-mining site in Indonesia. Owing to its geography, the city experiences alternating land and sea breezes. Sampling was done over a period of 3 years (from 2010 Aug. to 2012 Dec.) intermittently with a passive sampler for Hg(0), a portable handheld mercury analyzer, and a mercury analyzer in four areas of the city and in the Poboya gold-processing area, as well as wind speeds and directions in one area of the city. The 24-h average concentration, wind speed, and wind direction data show that the ambient air in both the gold-processing area and the city was always covered by high concentration of mercury vapor. The Hg(0) concentration in the city was higher at night than in the daytime, owing to the effect of land breezes. These results indicate that the inhabitants of the city were always exposed to high concentrations of Hg(0). The average daytime point-sample Hg(0) concentrations in the city, as measured with a handheld mercury analyzer over 3 days in July 2011, ranged from 2096 to 3299ngm(-3). In comparison, the average daytime Hg(0) concentration in the Poboya gold-processing area was 12,782ngm(-3). All of these concentrations are substantially higher than the World Health Organization air-quality guideline for annual average Hg exposure (1000ngm(-3)). We used the point-sample concentrations to calculate hazard quotient ratios by means of a probabilistic risk assessment method. The results indicated that 93% of the sample population overall was at risk (hazard quotient ratio ≥1 and cut off at

  12. Urban flooding and health risk analysis by use of quantitative microbial risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Signe Tanja

    D thesis is to identify the limitations and possibilities for optimising microbial risk assessments of urban flooding through more evidence-based solutions, including quantitative microbial data and hydrodynamic water quality models. The focus falls especially on the problem of data needs and the causes......, but also when wading through a flooded area. The results in this thesis have brought microbial risk assessments one step closer to more uniform and repeatable risk analysis by using actual and relevant measured data and hydrodynamic water quality models to estimate the risk from flooding caused...... are expected to increase in the future. To ensure public health during extreme rainfall, solutions are needed, but limited knowledge on microbial water quality, and related health risks, makes it difficult to implement microbial risk analysis as a part of the basis for decision making. The main aim of this Ph...

  13. Environmental risk analysis for nanomaterials: Review and evaluation of frameworks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grieger, Khara Deanne; Linkov, Igor; Hansen, Steffen Foss

    2012-01-01

    to occupational settings with minor environmental considerations, and most have not been thoroughly tested on a wide range of NM. Care should also be taken when selecting the most appropriate risk analysis strategy for a given risk context. Given this, we recommend a multi-faceted approach to assess...... the environmental risks of NM as well as increased applications and testing of the proposed frameworks for different NM....

  14. HVAC fault tree analysis for WIPP integrated risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirby, P.; Iacovino, J.

    1990-01-01

    In order to evaluate the public health risk from operation of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) due to potential radioactive releases, a probabilistic risk assessment of waste handling operations was conducted. One major aspect of this risk assessment involved fault tree analysis of the plant heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, which comprise the final barrier between waste handling operations and the environment. 1 refs., 1 tab

  15. WE-B-BRC-02: Risk Analysis and Incident Learning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fraass, B. [Cedars Sinai Medical Center (United States)

    2016-06-15

    Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. We therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation oncology

  16. WE-B-BRC-02: Risk Analysis and Incident Learning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fraass, B.

    2016-01-01

    Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. We therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation oncology

  17. Applying Multi-Criteria Analysis Methods for Fire Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pushkina Julia

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to prove the application of multi-criteria analysis methods for optimisation of fire risk identification and assessment process. The object of this research is fire risk and risk assessment. The subject of the research is studying the application of analytic hierarchy process for modelling and influence assessment of various fire risk factors. Results of research conducted by the authors can be used by insurance companies to perform the detailed assessment of fire risks on the object and to calculate a risk extra charge to an insurance premium; by the state supervisory institutions to determine the compliance of a condition of object with requirements of regulations; by real state owners and investors to carry out actions for decrease in degree of fire risks and minimisation of possible losses.

  18. DYNAMIC HYBRIDS UNDER SOLVENCY II: RISK ANALYSIS AND MODIFICATION POSSIBILITIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Maier

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we investigate the new and standardized European system of supervisory called Solvency II. In essence, asymmetric distribution of information between policyholder and insurer triggered this new regulation which aims at better protecting policyholders. Its three-pillar model is about to challenge both, insurers as well as policyholders. The first pillar includes quantitative aspects, the second pillar contains qualitative aspects and the third pillar comprises market transparency and reporting obligations. Underwriting risks, the default risk of a bank and market risks can be identified for the dynamic hybrid. Solvency II covers all these risks in the first pillar and insurers shall deposit sufficient risk-bearing capital. In our analysis, we first identify the dynamic hybrid specific risks under the Solvency II regime und then develop product modifications to reduce this risk.

  19. Risk and safety analysis of nuclear systems

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lee, John C; McCormick, Norman J

    2011-01-01

    ...), and failure modes of systems. All of this material is general enough that it could be used in non-nuclear applications, although there is an emphasis placed on the analysis of nuclear systems...

  20. Gut microbiome and the risk factors in central nervous system autoimmunity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ochoa-Repáraz, Javier; Kasper, Lloyd H

    2014-11-17

    Humans are colonized after birth by microbial organisms that form a heterogeneous community, collectively termed microbiota. The genomic pool of this macro-community is named microbiome. The gut microbiota is essential for the complete development of the immune system, representing a binary network in which the microbiota interact with the host providing important immune and physiologic function and conversely the bacteria protect themselves from host immune defense. Alterations in the balance of the gut microbiome due to a combination of environmental and genetic factors can now be associated with detrimental or protective effects in experimental autoimmune diseases. These gut microbiome alterations can unbalance the gastrointestinal immune responses and influence distal effector sites leading to CNS disease including both demyelination and affective disorders. The current range of risk factors for MS includes genetic makeup and environmental elements. Of interest to this review is the consistency between this range of MS risk factors and the gut microbiome. We postulate that the gut microbiome serves as the niche where different MS risk factors merge, thereby influencing the disease process. Copyright © 2014 Federation of European Biochemical Societies. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Polycystic ovary syndrome in Central Australia: Diagnosis and screening of cardiometabolic risk and emotional wellbeing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis, Emma; Gibson-Helm, Melanie; Boyle, Jacqueline A

    2018-04-01

    Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is a common condition that affects fertility, body image and emotional wellbeing in women, as well as significantly increasing a woman’s likelihood of developing type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and other cardiovascular disease risk factors. The objective of this study was to assess how management of PCOS in an Aboriginal primary care setting aligns with national standards for diagnosis and screening of cardiometabolic risk and emotional wellbeing. We conducted a retrospective clinical audit of 63 women who had PCOS listed as a diagnosis in their clinical record. Most women (95%) were correctly diagnosed, the most common trigger being menstrual irregularity (83%). Screening for cardiometabolic complications and emotional wellbeing as recommended by the national guideline was applied inconsistently, including 38% of eligible women not being screened for T2DM in the previous 12 months, and no woman being formally screened for emotional wellbeing. Discussion of lifestyle management was nearly universal; most women (75%) were referred to a dietician, although a third did not attend their appointment. Some components of recommended PCOS care were provided at high levels, including correct application of diagnostic criteria. However, PCOS management and screening for complications are being applied inconsistently in a population with high levels of cardiometabolic and emotional wellbeing risk.

  2. The development of a 3D risk analysis method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    I, Yet-Pole; Cheng, Te-Lung

    2008-05-01

    Much attention has been paid to the quantitative risk analysis (QRA) research in recent years due to more and more severe disasters that have happened in the process industries. Owing to its calculation complexity, very few software, such as SAFETI, can really make the risk presentation meet the practice requirements. However, the traditional risk presentation method, like the individual risk contour in SAFETI, is mainly based on the consequence analysis results of dispersion modeling, which usually assumes that the vapor cloud disperses over a constant ground roughness on a flat terrain with no obstructions and concentration fluctuations, which is quite different from the real situations of a chemical process plant. All these models usually over-predict the hazardous regions in order to maintain their conservativeness, which also increases the uncertainty of the simulation results. On the other hand, a more rigorous model such as the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model can resolve the previous limitations; however, it cannot resolve the complexity of risk calculations. In this research, a conceptual three-dimensional (3D) risk calculation method was proposed via the combination of results of a series of CFD simulations with some post-processing procedures to obtain the 3D individual risk iso-surfaces. It is believed that such technique will not only be limited to risk analysis at ground level, but also be extended into aerial, submarine, or space risk analyses in the near future.

  3. Assessment of major nuclear technologies with decision and risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Winterfeldt, D. von

    1995-01-01

    Selecting technologies for major nuclear programs involves several complexities, including multiple stakeholders, multiple conflicting objectives, uncertainties, and risk. In addition, the programmatic risks related to the schedule, cost, and performance of these technologies often become major issues in the selection process. This paper describes a decision analysis approach for addressing these complexities in a logical manner

  4. The JPL Cost Risk Analysis Approach that Incorporates Engineering Realism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harmon, Corey C.; Warfield, Keith R.; Rosenberg, Leigh S.

    2006-01-01

    This paper discusses the JPL Cost Engineering Group (CEG) cost risk analysis approach that accounts for all three types of cost risk. It will also describe the evaluation of historical cost data upon which this method is based. This investigation is essential in developing a method that is rooted in engineering realism and produces credible, dependable results to aid decision makers.

  5. The use of current risk analysis tools evaluated towards preventing external domino accidents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reniers, Genserik L L; Dullaert, W.; Ale, B. J.M.; Soudan, K.

    Risk analysis is an essential tool for company safety policy. Risk analysis consists of identifying and evaluating all possible risks. The efficiency of risk analysis tools depends on the rigueur of identifying and evaluating all possible risks. The diversity in risk analysis procedures is such that

  6. Simulation Approach to Mission Risk and Reliability Analysis, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — It is proposed to develop and demonstrate an integrated total-system risk and reliability analysis approach that is based on dynamic, probabilistic simulation. This...

  7. Risk and train control : a framework for analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2001-01-01

    This report develops and demonstrates a framework for examining the effects of various train control strategies on some of the major risks of railroad operations. Analysis of hypothetical 1200-mile corridor identified the main factors that increase r...

  8. Vulnerability and Risk Analysis Program: Overview of Assessment Methodology

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2001-01-01

    .... Over the last three years, a team of national laboratory experts, working in partnership with the energy industry, has successfully applied the methodology as part of OCIP's Vulnerability and Risk Analysis Program (VRAP...

  9. Risk and Interdependencies in Critical Infrastructures A Guideline for Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Utne, Ingrid; Vatn, Jørn

    2012-01-01

    Today’s society is completely dependent on critical networks such as  water supply, sewage, electricity, ICT and transportation. Risk and vulnerability analyses are needed to grasp the impact of threats and hazards. However, these become quite complex as there are strong interdependencies both within and between infrastructure systems. Risk and Interdependencies in Critical Infrastructures: A  guideline for analysis provides methods for analyzing risks and interdependencies of critical infrastructures.  A number of analysis approaches are described and are adapted to each of these infrastructures. Various approaches are also revised, and all are supported by several examples and illustrations. Particular emphasis is given to the analysis of various interdependencies that often exist between the infrastructures.  Risk and Interdependencies in Critical Infrastructures: A  guideline for analysis provides a good tool to identify the hazards that are threatening your infrastructures, and will enhance the un...

  10. Spent fuel pool risk analysis for the Dukovany NPP

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hust' ak, S.; Jaros, M.; Kubicek, J. [UJV Rez, a.s., Husinec-Rez (Czech Republic)

    2013-07-01

    UJV Rez, a.s. maintains a Living Probabilistic Safety Assessment (Living PSA) program for Dukovany Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) in the Czech Republic. This project has been established as a framework for activities related to risk assessment and to support for risk-informed decision making at this plant. The most extensively used PSA application at Dukovany NPP is risk monitoring of instantaneous (point-in-time) risk during plant operation, especially for the purpose of configuration risk management during plant scheduled outages to avoid risk significant configurations. The scope of PSA for Dukovany NPP includes also determination of a risk contribution from spent fuel pool (SFP) operation to provide recommendations for the prevention and mitigation of SFP accidents and to be applicable for configuration risk management. This paper describes the analysis of internal initiating events (IEs) in PSA for Dukovany NPP, which can contribute to the risk from SFP operation. The analysis of those IEs was done more thoroughly in the PSA for Dukovany NPP in order to be used in instantaneous risk monitoring. (orig.)

  11. Examining the central and peripheral processes of written word production through meta-analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeremy ePurcell

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Producing written words requires central cognitive processes (such as orthographic long-term and working memory as well as more peripheral processes responsible for generating the motor actions needed for producing written words in a variety of formats (handwriting, typing, etc.. In recent years, various functional neuroimaging studies have examined the neural substrates underlying the central and peripheral processes of written word production. This study provides the first quantitative meta-analysis of these studies by applying Activation Likelihood Estimation methods (Turkeltaub et al., 2002. For alphabet languages, we identified 11 studies (with a total of 17 experimental contrasts that had been designed to isolate central and/or peripheral processes of word spelling (total number of participants = 146. Three ALE meta-analyses were carried out. One involved the complete set of 17 contrasts; two others were applied to subsets of contrasts to distinguish the neural substrates of central from peripheral processes. These analyses identified a network of brain regions reliably associated with the central and peripheral processes of word spelling. Among the many significant results, is the finding that the regions with the greatest correspondence across studies were in the left inferior temporal/fusiform gyri and left inferior frontal gyrus. Furthermore, although the angular gyrus has traditionally been identified as a key site within the written word production network, none of the meta-analyses found it to be a consistent site of activation, identifying instead a region just superior/medial to the left angular gyrus in the left posterior intraparietal sulcus. In general these meta-analyses and the discussion of results provide a valuable foundation upon which future studies that examine the neural basis of written word production can build.

  12. Common pitfalls in statistical analysis: Absolute risk reduction, relative risk reduction, and number needed to treat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranganathan, Priya; Pramesh, C. S.; Aggarwal, Rakesh

    2016-01-01

    In the previous article in this series on common pitfalls in statistical analysis, we looked at the difference between risk and odds. Risk, which refers to the probability of occurrence of an event or outcome, can be defined in absolute or relative terms. Understanding what these measures represent is essential for the accurate interpretation of study results. PMID:26952180

  13. THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK AND THE FEDERAL RESERVE: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dorina Clichici

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to identify the main differences and similarities between the European Central Bank (ECB and US Federal Reserve (FED in terms of their functional framework and monetary policy. The research is based on a comparative analysis of the history of establishing the Eurosystem and the Federal Reserve System, which has influenced the way these central banks operate today. It also analyzes the policy responses of the two institutions to the 2007 global financial crisis, since both their non-conventional policy measures and the effects thereof on growth, inflation and unemployment rates were slightly different. The paper finds that there are differences between the ECB and FED rather regarding the organization and functioning of the Committees for monetary policy and monetary policy objectives than the institutional structure and policy framework

  14. Neutron activation analysis of archaeological ceramics from the Central Valley and Turrialba, Costa Rica

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chapdelaine, Claude; Vazquez Leiva, Ricardo; Kennedy, Greg

    2008-01-01

    Neutron activation analysis of 56 ceramic samples is oriented toward a better understanding of the interaction and autonomy among late Period V (A.D. 500-1000) and Period VI (A.D. 1000-1550) societies in the Central Valley and Turrialba. Samples are selected from three sites, Guayabo, Agua Caliente and La Ribera, the samples correspond to (1) local types and (2) polychrome types considered trade goods coming from Guanacaste/Nicoya. Data have supported the Guanacaste-Nicoyan origen of the polychrome pottery. Regarding the Central Valley and Turrialba local types, very little evidence was found for their exchange among communities. This result is explicable on the basis of political autonomy and economic autarky of first-tier chiefdom sites such as Agua Caliente and Guayabo. (author) [es

  15. Fuzzy central tendency measure for time series variability analysis with application to fatigue electromyography signals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Hong-Bo; Dokos, Socrates

    2013-01-01

    A new method, namely fuzzy central tendency measure (fCTM) analysis, that could enable measurement of the variability of a time series, is presented in this study. Tests on simulated data sets show that fCTM is superior to the conventional central tendency measure (CTM) in several respects, including improved relative consistency and robustness to noise. The proposed fCTM method was applied to electromyograph (EMG) signals recorded during sustained isometric contraction for tracking local muscle fatigue. The results showed that the fCTM increased significantly during the development of muscle fatigue, and it was more sensitive to the fatigue phenomenon than mean frequency (MNF), the most commonly-used muscle fatigue indicator.

  16. Structural, stratigraphic and hydrodynamic analysis of the Paleozoic section of central New York State

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Willette, P.D.

    1979-01-01

    A structural, stratigraphic and hydrodynamic analysis of 12 formations in central New York State between longitudes 75 30' and 78 30' is presented in the form of structure, isopach and potentiometric-fluid flow maps. Information used in the study was obtained from 2804 wells drilled for gas and oil. New concepts, approaches or reinterpretations of ideas presented in previous studies include: evidence of Taconic orogenic features as far west as Rochester, structural control of Trenton gas fields, a new interpretation of Oriskany erosional features and Onondaga reef trends, and structurally controlled fluid-flow patterns. Because fluid flow is toward the water supply of major population centers and because of the likelihood of drilling for natural gas in the area, the Salina Formation in central New York State is not a good site for a high level radioactive waste repository

  17. Flow meter fault isolation in building central chilling systems using wavelet analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Youming; Hao Xiaoli; Zhang Guoqiang; Wang Shengwei

    2006-01-01

    This paper presents an approach to isolate flow meter faults in building central chilling systems. It mathematically explains the fault collinearity among the flow meters in central chilling systems and points out that the sensor validation index (SVI) used in principal component analysis (PCA) is incapable of isolating flow meter faults due to the fault collinearity. The wavelet transform is used to isolate the flow meter faults as a substitute for the SVI of PCA. This approach can identify various variations in measuring signals, such as ramp, step, discontinuity etc., due to the good property of the wavelet in local time-frequency. Some examples are given to demonstrate its ability of fault isolation for the flow meters

  18. H15-42: CFD analysis for risk analysis in urban environments - Tilburg city case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hulsbosch-Dam, C.; Mack, A.; Ratingen, S. van; Rosmuller, N.; Trijssenaar, I.

    2013-01-01

    For risk analysis studies, relatively simple dispersion models are generally applied, such as Gaussian dispersion and dense gas dispersion models. For rail transport risk analyses in the Netherlands, fixed consequence distances are applied for various standard scenarios of hazardous materials

  19. Instability risk analysis and risk assessment system establishment of underground storage caverns in bedded salt rock

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jing, Wenjun; Zhao, Yan

    2018-02-01

    Stability is an important part of geotechnical engineering research. The operating experiences of underground storage caverns in salt rock all around the world show that the stability of the caverns is the key problem of safe operation. Currently, the combination of theoretical analysis and numerical simulation are the mainly adopts method of reserve stability analysis. This paper introduces the concept of risk into the stability analysis of underground geotechnical structure, and studies the instability of underground storage cavern in salt rock from the perspective of risk analysis. Firstly, the definition and classification of cavern instability risk is proposed, and the damage mechanism is analyzed from the mechanical angle. Then the main stability evaluating indicators of cavern instability risk are proposed, and an evaluation method of cavern instability risk is put forward. Finally, the established cavern instability risk assessment system is applied to the analysis and prediction of cavern instability risk after 30 years of operation in a proposed storage cavern group in the Huai’an salt mine. This research can provide a useful theoretical base for the safe operation and management of underground storage caverns in salt rock.

  20. Environmental risk analysis of hazardous material rail transportation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saat, Mohd Rapik; Werth, Charles J.; Schaeffer, David; Yoon, Hongkyu; Barkan, Christopher P.L.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Comprehensive, nationwide risk assessment of hazardous material rail transportation. • Application of a novel environmental (i.e. soil and groundwater) consequence model. • Cleanup cost and total shipment distance are the most significant risk factors. • Annual risk varies from $20,000 to $560,000 for different products. • Provides information on the risk cost associated with specific product shipments. -- Abstract: An important aspect of railroad environmental risk management involves tank car transportation of hazardous materials. This paper describes a quantitative, environmental risk analysis of rail transportation of a group of light, non-aqueous-phase liquid (LNAPL) chemicals commonly transported by rail in North America. The Hazardous Materials Transportation Environmental Consequence Model (HMTECM) was used in conjunction with a geographic information system (GIS) analysis of environmental characteristics to develop probabilistic estimates of exposure to different spill scenarios along the North American rail network. The risk analysis incorporated the estimated clean-up cost developed using the HMTECM, route-specific probability distributions of soil type and depth to groundwater, annual traffic volume, railcar accident rate, and tank car safety features, to estimate the nationwide annual risk of transporting each product. The annual risk per car-mile (car-km) and per ton-mile (ton-km) was also calculated to enable comparison between chemicals and to provide information on the risk cost associated with shipments of these products. The analysis and the methodology provide a quantitative approach that will enable more effective management of the environmental risk of transporting hazardous materials

  1. Environmental risk analysis of hazardous material rail transportation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saat, Mohd Rapik, E-mail: mohdsaat@illinois.edu [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1243 Newmark Civil Engineering Laboratory, 205 North Mathews Avenue, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); Werth, Charles J.; Schaeffer, David [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1243 Newmark Civil Engineering Laboratory, 205 North Mathews Avenue, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); Yoon, Hongkyu [Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM 87123 (United States); Barkan, Christopher P.L. [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1243 Newmark Civil Engineering Laboratory, 205 North Mathews Avenue, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States)

    2014-01-15

    Highlights: • Comprehensive, nationwide risk assessment of hazardous material rail transportation. • Application of a novel environmental (i.e. soil and groundwater) consequence model. • Cleanup cost and total shipment distance are the most significant risk factors. • Annual risk varies from $20,000 to $560,000 for different products. • Provides information on the risk cost associated with specific product shipments. -- Abstract: An important aspect of railroad environmental risk management involves tank car transportation of hazardous materials. This paper describes a quantitative, environmental risk analysis of rail transportation of a group of light, non-aqueous-phase liquid (LNAPL) chemicals commonly transported by rail in North America. The Hazardous Materials Transportation Environmental Consequence Model (HMTECM) was used in conjunction with a geographic information system (GIS) analysis of environmental characteristics to develop probabilistic estimates of exposure to different spill scenarios along the North American rail network. The risk analysis incorporated the estimated clean-up cost developed using the HMTECM, route-specific probability distributions of soil type and depth to groundwater, annual traffic volume, railcar accident rate, and tank car safety features, to estimate the nationwide annual risk of transporting each product. The annual risk per car-mile (car-km) and per ton-mile (ton-km) was also calculated to enable comparison between chemicals and to provide information on the risk cost associated with shipments of these products. The analysis and the methodology provide a quantitative approach that will enable more effective management of the environmental risk of transporting hazardous materials.

  2. Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma: Analysis of the Central Compartmentʼs Lymph Nodes Metastases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ján Sojak

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: Papillary thyroid carcinoma is typical by regional lymph nodes metastases. Therefore we decided to analyse associated risk factors. Objective: In this retrospective study we focused on the incidence of metastatic involvement of the central compartment’s lymph nodes correlated with age, size of the primary tumour, infiltration of thyroid gland capsule, positive lymphangioinvasion in order to assess risk factors. Method: We analysed group of 156 patients with papillary carcinoma, who have undergone total thyroidectomy and bilateral elective central compartment neck dissection. We evaluated the occurrence of metastases, size, infiltration and lymphangioinvasion based on definitive histology of the whole group and separately for subgroups of patients under and over 45 years. Result: We found metastatic involvement in 88 (56.4% patients. When comparing the subgroups of patients under (73 patients and over 45 years (83 patients, we found metastases in 56 vs. 32 (76.7% vs. 38.6% patients. In the subgroup of younger patients we found significant higher incidence of metastases compared with the group of over 45 years, P < 0.001 (P = 0.000027. We found significant higher incidence of metastases in patients with positive capsule infiltration in the whole group, P < 0.001 (P = 0.00049; in the subgroup of under 45 years, P < 0.001 (P = 0.00091 and in patients with positive lymphangioinvasion in the whole group, P < 0.01 (P = 0.00177; in the subgroup of over 45 years, P < 0.001 (P = 0.0002. In patients with metastases we found tumour size ≥1cm more frequently in all groups. Conclusion: We recorded higher incidence of regional metastases in patients under 45 years, positive capsule infiltration, lymphangioinvasion. Age under 45 years itself does not correlate with less aggressive disease, to the contrary some of other analysed risk factors correlate with more aggressive disease.

  3. Transparent polyurethane film as an intravenous catheter dressing. A meta-analysis of the infection risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffmann, K K; Weber, D J; Samsa, G P; Rutala, W A

    1992-04-15

    To obtain a quantitative estimate of the impact on infectious complications of using transparent dressings with intravenous catheters. Meta-analysis of all studies published in the English literature, including abstracts, letters, and reports that examined the primary research question of infection risks associated with transparent compared with gauze dressings for use on central and peripheral venous catheters. Studies were identified by use of the MEDLINE database using the indexing terms occlusive dressings, transparent dressings, and infection and by review of referenced bibliographies. Seven of the 15 studies (47%) of central venous catheters and seven of 12 studies (58%) of peripheral catheters met our inclusion criteria for analysis. All studies used a prospective cohort design, utilized hospitalized patients, and reported at least one of our defined outcomes. Data for each study were abstracted independently by three investigators. At least three studies were used in the analysis of each outcome. Applying a Mantel-Haenszel chi 2 analysis, use of transparent dressings on central venous catheters was significantly associated with an elevated relative risk (RR) of catheter tip infection (RR = 1.78; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.38 to 2.30). Catheter-related sepsis (RR = 1.69; 95% CI, 0.97 to 2.95) and bacteremia (RR = 1.63; 95% CI, 0.76 to 3.47) were both associated with an elevated RR. Use of transparent dressings on peripheral catheters was associated with an elevated RR of catheter-tip infection (RR = 1.53; 95% CI, 1.18 to 1.99) but not phlebitis (RR = 1.02; 95% CI, 0.86 to 1.20), infiltration (RR = 1.12; 95% CI, 0.92 to 1.37), or skin colonization (RR = 0.99; 95% CI, 0.90 to 1.09). The results demonstrated a significantly increased risk of catheter-tip infection with the use of transparent compared with gauze dressings when used with either central or peripheral catheters. An increased risk of bacteremia and catheter sepsis associated with the use of

  4. Probabilistic risk analysis of Angra-1 reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spivak, R.C.; Collussi, I.; Silva, M.C. da; Onusic Junior, J.

    1986-01-01

    The first phase of probabilistic study for safety analysis and operational analysis of Angra-1 reactor is presented. The study objectives and uses are: to support decisions about safety problems; to identify operational and/or project failures; to amplify operator qualification tests to include accidents in addition to project base; to provide informations to be used in development and/or review of operation procedures in emergency, test and maintenance procedures; to obtain experience for data collection about abnormal accurences; utilization of study results for training operators; and training of evaluation and reliability techniques for the personnel of CNEN and FURNAS. (M.C.K.) [pt

  5. ANALYSIS OF RISK FACTORS ECTOPIC PREGNANCY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Budi Santoso

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Ectopic pregnancy is a pregnancy with extrauterine implantation. This situation is gynecologic emergency that contributes to maternal mortality. Therefore, early recognition, based on identification of the causes of ectopic pregnancy risk factors, is needed. Methods: The design descriptive observational. The samples were pregnant women who had ectopic pregnancy at Maternity Room, Emergency Unit, Dr. Soetomo Hospital, Surabaya, from 1 July 2008 to 1 July 2010. Sampling technique was total sampling using medical records. Result: Patients with ectopic pregnancy were 99 individuals out of 2090 pregnant women who searched for treatment in Dr. Soetomo Hospital. However, only 29 patients were accompanied with traceable risk factors. Discussion:. Most ectopic pregnancies were in the age group of 26-30 years, comprising 32 patients (32.32%, then in age groups of 31–35 years as many as 25 patients (25.25%, 18 patients in age group 21–25 years (18.18%, 17 patients in age group 36–40 years (17.17%, 4 patients in age group 41 years and more (4.04%, and the least was in age group of 16–20 years with 3 patients (3.03%. A total of 12 patients with ectopic pregnancy (41.38% had experience of abortion and 6 patients (20.69% each in groups of patients with ectopic pregnancy who used family planning, in those who used family planning as well as ectopic pregnancy patients with history of surgery. There were 2 patients (6.90% of the group of patients ectopic pregnancy who had history of surgery and history of abortion. The incidence rate of ectopic pregnancy was 4.73%, mostly in the second gravidity (34.34%, whereas the nulliparous have the highest prevalence of 39.39%. Acquired risk factors, i.e. history of operations was 10.34%, patients with family planning 20.69%, patients with history of abortion 41.38%, patients with history of abortion and operation 6.90% patients with family and history of abortion was 20.69%.

  6. Shale Gas Development in the Central Karoo: A Scientific Assessment of the Opportunities and Risks

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Scholes, B

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Processes, Ecosystems and Species Ch 8 Impacts on Agriculture Ch 9 Impact on Tourism in the Karoo Ch 10 Impacts on the Economy Ch 11 Impacts on Social Fabric of 34 Municipalities Ch 12 Impact on Human Health Ch 13 Impact on Sense of Place Values Ch 14... process, is an approach for 7 considering all aspects of an issue in a common way, and in a spatial context. Risk is determined by 8 estimating the likelihood of events or trends occurring, in relation to their consequences (Figure 5). 9 10 11...

  7. Behavioral risk factors of breast cancer in Bangui of Central African Republic: A retrospective case-control study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Augustin Balekouzou

    Full Text Available Breast cancer is recognized as a major public health problem in developing countries; however, there is very little evidence of behavioral factors associated with breast cancer risk. This study was conducted to identify lifestyles as risk factors for breast cancer among Central African women. A case-control study was conducted with 174 cases confirmed histologically by the pathology unit of the National Laboratory and 348 age-matched controls. Data collection tools included a questionnaire with interviews and medical records of patients. Data were analyzed using SPSS software version 20. Odd ratio (OR and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI were obtained by unconditional logistic regression. In total, 522 women were studied with a mean age of 45.8 (SD = 13.4 years. By unconditional logistic regression model, women with breast cancer were more likely to have attained illiterate and elementary education level [11.23 (95% CI, 4.65-27.14 and 2.40 (95% CI, 1.15-4.99], married [2.09 (95% CI, 1.18-3.71], positive family history [2.31 (95% CI, 1.36-3.91], radiation exposure [8.21 (95% CI, 5.04-13.38], consumption charcuterie [10.82 (95% CI, 2.39-48.90], fresh fish consumption [4.26 (95% CI, 1.56-11.65], groundnut consumption [6.46 (95% CI, 2.57-16.27], soybean consumption [16.74 (95% CI, 8.03-39.84], alcohol [2.53 (95% CI, 1.39-4.60], habit of keeping money in bras[3.57 (95% CI, 2.24-5.69], overweight [5.36 (95% CI, 4.46-24.57] and obesity [3.11(95% CI, 2.39-20.42]. However, decreased risk of breast cancer was associated with being employed [0.32 (95% CI, 0.19-0.56], urban residence [0.16 (95% CI, 0.07-0.37], groundnut oil consumption [0.05 (95% CI, 0.02-0.14], wine consumption [0.16 (95% CI, 0.09-0.26], non habit of keeping cell phone in bras [0.56 (95% CI, 0.35-0.89] and physical activity [0.71(95% CI, 0.14-0.84]. The study showed that little or no education, marriage, positive family history of cancer, radiation exposure, charcuterie, fresh fish

  8. Decree N0 73-322 of 15 March 1973 concerning insurance and reinsurance of exceptional and nuclear risks by the Central Reinsurance Fund

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1973-01-01

    This Decree provides that the Central Reinsurance Fund may cover, with the State guarantee, risks for which operators of nuclear ships and installations are liable and concerning which State intervention is provided for by legislation. These operations relate in particular to goods carried, nuclear installations and property on the site of such installations. The Decree sets up an Advisory Commission for the Central Reinsurance Fund regarding security for exceptional and nuclear risks and repeals a 1967 Decree on insurance of exceptional risks. (NEA) [fr

  9. Prevalence and risk factors of gammaherpesvirus infection in domestic cats in Central Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ertl, Reinhard; Korb, Melanie; Langbein-Detsch, Ines; Klein, Dieter

    2015-09-17

    Gammaherpesviruses (GHVs) are a large group of dsDNA viruses that can infect humans and several animal species. The two human GHVs, Epstein-Barr virus and Kaposi's sarcoma-associated herpesvirus are known for their oncogenic properties in individuals with immunodeficiency. Recently, the first feline GHV, Felis catus gammaherpesvirus 1 (FcaGHV1) was discovered and frequently found in domestic cats in Australia, Singapore and the USA. FcaGHV1 is more likely to be detected in cats co-infected with the feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV). The prevalence of FcaGHV1 in pet cats from Germany and Austria was 16.2 % (95 % CI = 12.38-20.02). The odds for GHV infection were greater for FIV positive (OR = 4.5), male (OR = 13.32) and older (OR = 2.36) cats. Furthermore, FcaGHV1 viral loads were significantly higher in FIV-infected cats compared to matched controls. GHV infections are common in domestic cats in Central Europe. The worldwide distribution of FcaGHV1 can be assumed. A potential role as a co-factor in FIV-induced pathogeneses is supported.

  10. Quantitative risk analysis in two pipelines operated by TRANSPETRO

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia, Claudio B. [PETROBRAS Transporte S/A (TRANSPETRO), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Pinho, Edson [Universidade Federal Rural do Rio de Janeiro (UFRRJ), Seropedica, RJ (Brazil); Bittencourt, Euclides [Centro Universitario FIB, Salvador , BA (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    Transportation risk analysis techniques were used to study two pipelines operated by TRANSPETRO. The Pipeline A is for the simultaneous transportation of diesel, gasoline and LPG and comprises three parts, all of them crossing rural areas. The Pipeline B is for oil transportation and one of its ends is located in an area of a high density population. Both pipelines had their risk studied using the PHAST RISK{sup R} software and the individual risk measures, the only considered measures for license purposes for this type of studies, presented level far below the maximum tolerable levels considered. (author)

  11. THE ANALYSIS OF RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS WITHIN MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ROMANESCU MARCEL LAURENTIU

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available This article highlights the risk analysis within management, focusing on how a company could practicaly integrate the risks management in the existing leading process. Subsequently, it is exemplified the way of manage risk effectively, which gives numerous advantages to all firms, including improving their decision-making process. All these lead to the conclusion that the degree of risk specific to companies is very high, but if managers make the best decisions then it can diminish it and all business activitiy and its income are not influenced by factors that could disturb in a negative way .

  12. Occurrence of pharmaceuticals and personal care products and associated environmental risks in the central and lower Yangtze river, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Chenxi; Huang, Xiaolong; Witter, Jason D; Spongberg, Alison L; Wang, Kexiong; Wang, Ding; Liu, Jiantong

    2014-08-01

    Pharmaceutical and personal care products (PPCPs) residues are being highlighted around the world as of emerging concern in surface waters. Here the occurrence of PPCPs in the central and lower Yangtze River, along with four large freshwater lakes within the river basin (Dongting, Poyang, Tai, and Chao) was reported. Fifteen out of twenty selected PPCPs were detected in the collected surface water samples. Caffeine, paraxanthine, sulfamethazine, and clindamycin were detected with 100 percent frequency in the Yangtze River. In the river, the highest average concentration was observed for erythromycin (296 ng L(-1)), followed by caffeine (142 ng L(-1)) and paraxanthine (41 ng L(-1)). In the four lakes, total PPCP concentrations were much higher in the Chao (1547 ng L(-1)) and Tai (1087 ng L(-1)) lakes compared to the Poyang (108 ng L(-1)) and Dongting (137 ng L(-1)) lakes. Lincomycin and clindamycin were most abundant in the lakes, especially in the Tai Lake. Environmental risk assessment for the worst case scenario was assessed using calculated risk quotients, and indicates a high environmental risk of erythromycin and clarithromycin in the Yangtze River, clarithromycin in the Chao Lake, and clindamycin in the Tai Lake. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. The Prevalence of and Risk Factors Associated with Musculoskeletal Disorders among Sonographers in Central China: A Cross-Sectional Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Qingmin; Liu, Shenglin; Yang, Lei; Xie, Mingxing

    2016-01-01

    Objective Studies from industrialized countries show that musculoskeletal disorders (MSD) occur commonly in sonographers. However, little is known about sonographers in China, where the awareness of ergonomics and MSD, workload, and available equipment/facilities may differ. We aimed to investigate the prevalence of MSD and associated risk factors in sonographers in central China. Methods A cross-sectional survey was conducted with 381 sonographers from 14 randomly selected tertiary hospitals in Hubei province, central China. Musculoskeletal symptoms (using the Nordic Questionnaire) and risk factors (mostly derived from the Health Benefit Trust survey instrument and the Dutch Musculoskeletal Questionnaire) were recorded. Multivariate logistic regression was used to quantify associations between risk factors and MSD. Results The 12-month period prevalence of MSD was 98.3%, being highest in the neck (93.5%) and shoulder (92.2%), followed by the lower back (83.2%), wrist/hand, upper back, and elbow. Factors contributing to neck pain were psychological fatigue, shoulder abduction and trunk bend-and-twist posture. Height-adjustable tables and chairs were protective factors. Shoulder pain was associated with female sex, health status, mental stress, shoulder abduction, and trunk bend-and-twist posture. Height-adjustable chairs and the awareness of adjusting the workstation before scanning were protective factors. Elbow pain was associated with health status and height-adjustable tables. Wrist/hand pain was associated with female sex, bending the wrist, and working with obese patients. Upper back pain was associated with shoulder abduction, height-adjustable chairs, and device location. Lower back pain was associated with the number of scans performed per day, awkward postures, bending the trunk, twisting or bending the neck forward, and using a footrest. Conclusions This study suggests a high prevalence of MSD in sonographers in central China. Hence, it is necessary to

  14. Antibiotics in surface water and sediments from Hanjiang River, Central China: Occurrence, behavior and risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Ying; Yan, Xue; Shen, Yun; Di, Mingxiao; Wang, Jun

    2018-08-15

    Thirteen antibiotics including sulfonamides (SAs), tetracyclines (TETs) and fluoroquinolones (FQs) were measured in Hanjiang River (HR) during two periods. The total concentrations of 13 antibiotics in surface water and sediments ranged from 3.1 to 109 ng/l and from 10 to 45 ng/g dry weight, respectively. SAs were dominant in water while the concentrations of TETs were the highest in sediments in two seasons. For their spatial distribution, total concentrations of 13 antibiotics in both matrices were significantly higher in the lower section of HR (p  5.15) due to wastewater release, agricultural activities and water transfer project. Obvious seasonal variations of sulfadiazine, sulfameter, trimethoprim and oxytetracycline in water were observed (p  4.62). Phase partition of antibiotics between water and sediments suggested a greater affinity of TETs and FQs to sediments. In addition, significantly positive relationships were found between SAs (sulfameter, sulfamethoxazole and trimethoprim) and sediment TOC (p Risk assessment indicated that the hazard quotients of antibiotics were higher in the sediment than those in the water. Moreover, antibiotic mixtures posed higher ecological risks to aquatic organisms. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. The Existence of Water Container as Risk Factor the Transmission of DHF in Palu, Central Sulawesi

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junus Widjaja

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available During the period of three years (2003-2005 the number of dengue cases in Palu continues to increase, the number of cases in 2003 with 173 people with death ot 10 people (CFR 5.78%, in 2004 the number ofcasesfound among 210 people died (CFR 4.32% and 2005 the number of cases found 627 people with 12 deaths (CFR2.21%. Objectives know the type, material and location conteiner as risk factors for the occurence of dengue in the city of Palu. The presence of mosquito breeding sites by species container buckets(OR=3.6 p=O.OO and jars (OR=5.2 p=0.03, plastic materials (OR=1.7 p=O.Ol, state conteiner not closed (OR =0. 04 p=1.2 and location container in the house (OR=1.3 p= 0.01 were risk factors associated with the incidence of dengue in the city of Palu. Need extension 3M, an increase in the real role of DHF and soon formed a working group JUMANTIK in Palu.

  16. Volcanic risk perception in rural communities along the slopes of mount Cameroon, West-Central Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Njome, Manga S.; Suh, Cheo E.; Chuyong, George; de Wit, Maarten J.

    2010-11-01

    A study of volcanic risk perception was carried out in rural communities around the Mount Cameroon volcano between August and December 2008. The results indicate that risk perception reflects the levels of threat to which a resident population has been exposed to previously. Results of 70 responses to questionnaires show that local knowledge of hazards is high. Most respondents correctly indicated that earthquake and lava flow activities would affect resident population most in the future. By contrast, respondent's ability to adapt and protect themselves from the effects of future eruptions is poor, and inhabitants would likely shift responsibility for their protection to the requisite experts. This study confirms that there is little knowledge of any existing emergency plan, little or no educational outreach activities, but a high perceived need for information about and implementation of such actions. Knowledge about natural threats is found to be directly related to past exposure to volcanic hazard, and is significantly higher for people living along the southern than those along the northern slopes of Mt. Cameroon. The data also show that the media remains the most accessible channel for hazard communication, and that the internet is a growing information source that should be used to reach out to the younger generation. It is clear from the results of this study that major education and information efforts are required to improve the public's knowledge, confidence in the government, and growing self-reliance, in order to improve both collective and individual capacity to face future volcanic emergencies.

  17. Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon; Kelly, Dana; Smith, Curtis; Vedros, Kurt; Galyean, William

    2009-01-01

    This document, Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis, is intended to provide guidelines for the collection and evaluation of risk and reliability-related data. It is aimed at scientists and engineers familiar with risk and reliability methods and provides a hands-on approach to the investigation and application of a variety of risk and reliability data assessment methods, tools, and techniques. This document provides both: A broad perspective on data analysis collection and evaluation issues. A narrow focus on the methods to implement a comprehensive information repository. The topics addressed herein cover the fundamentals of how data and information are to be used in risk and reliability analysis models and their potential role in decision making. Understanding these topics is essential to attaining a risk informed decision making environment that is being sought by NASA requirements and procedures such as 8000.4 (Agency Risk Management Procedural Requirements), NPR 8705.05 (Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures for NASA Programs and Projects), and the System Safety requirements of NPR 8715.3 (NASA General Safety Program Requirements).

  18. Systems-level analysis of risk genes reveals the modular nature of schizophrenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jiewei; Li, Ming; Luo, Xiong-Jian; Su, Bing

    2018-05-19

    Schizophrenia (SCZ) is a complex mental disorder with high heritability. Genetic studies (especially recent genome-wide association studies) have identified many risk genes for schizophrenia. However, the physical interactions among the proteins encoded by schizophrenia risk genes remain elusive and it is not known whether the identified risk genes converge on common molecular networks or pathways. Here we systematically investigated the network characteristics of schizophrenia risk genes using the high-confidence protein-protein interactions (PPI) from the human interactome. We found that schizophrenia risk genes encode a densely interconnected PPI network (P = 4.15 × 10 -31 ). Compared with the background genes, the schizophrenia risk genes in the interactome have significantly higher degree (P = 5.39 × 10 -11 ), closeness centrality (P = 7.56 × 10 -11 ), betweeness centrality (P = 1.29 × 10 -11 ), clustering coefficient (P = 2.22 × 10 -2 ), and shorter average shortest path length (P = 7.56 × 10 -11 ). Based on the densely interconnected PPI network, we identified 48 hub genes and 4 modules formed by highly interconnected schizophrenia genes. We showed that the proteins encoded by schizophrenia hub genes have significantly more direct physical interactions. Gene ontology (GO) analysis revealed that cell adhesion, cell cycle, immune system response, and GABR-receptor complex categories were enriched in the modules formed by highly interconnected schizophrenia risk genes. Our study reveals that schizophrenia risk genes encode a densely interconnected molecular network and demonstrates the modular nature of schizophrenia. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Risk analysis of analytical validations by probabilistic modification of FMEA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barends, D.M.; Oldenhof, M.T.; Vredenbregt, M.J.

    2012-01-01

    Risk analysis is a valuable addition to validation of an analytical chemistry process, enabling not only detecting technical risks, but also risks related to human failures. Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) can be applied, using a categorical risk scoring of the occurrence, detection...... and severity of failure modes, and calculating the Risk Priority Number (RPN) to select failure modes for correction. We propose a probabilistic modification of FMEA, replacing the categorical scoring of occurrence and detection by their estimated relative frequency and maintaining the categorical scoring...... of severity. In an example, the results of traditional FMEA of a Near Infrared (NIR) analytical procedure used for the screening of suspected counterfeited tablets are re-interpretated by this probabilistic modification of FMEA. Using this probabilistic modification of FMEA, the frequency of occurrence...

  20. [Survival analysis with competing risks: estimating failure probability].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llorca, Javier; Delgado-Rodríguez, Miguel

    2004-01-01

    To show the impact of competing risks of death on survival analysis. We provide an example of survival time without chronic rejection after heart transplantation, where death before rejection acts as a competing risk. Using a computer simulation, we compare the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the multiple decrement model. The Kaplan-Meier method overestimated the probability of rejection. Next, we illustrate the use of the multiple decrement model to analyze secondary end points (in our example: death after rejection). Finally, we discuss Kaplan-Meier assumptions and why they fail in the presence of competing risks. Survival analysis should be adjusted for competing risks of death to avoid overestimation of the risk of rejection produced with the Kaplan-Meier method.

  1. Risk-benefit analysis and public policy: a bibliography

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clark, E.M.; Van Horn, A.J.

    1976-11-01

    Risk-benefit analysis has been implicitly practiced whenever decision-makers are confronted with decisions involving risks to life, health, or to the environment. Various methodologies have been developed to evaluate relevant criteria and to aid in assessing the impacts of alternative projects. Among these have been cost-benefit analysis, which has been widely used for project evaluation. However, in many cases it has been difficult to assign dollar costs to those criteria involving risks and benefits which are not now assigned explicit monetary values in our economic system. Hence, risk-benefit analysis has evolved to become more than merely an extension of cost-benefit analysis, and many methods have been applied to examine the trade-offs between risks and benefits. In addition, new scientific and statistical techniques have been developed for assessing current and future risks. The 950 references included in this bibliography are meant to suggest the breadth of those methodologies which have been applied to decisions involving risk.

  2. Risk-benefit analysis and public policy: a bibliography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clark, E.M.; Van Horn, A.J.

    1976-11-01

    Risk-benefit analysis has been implicitly practiced whenever decision-makers are confronted with decisions involving risks to life, health, or to the environment. Various methodologies have been developed to evaluate relevant criteria and to aid in assessing the impacts of alternative projects. Among these have been cost-benefit analysis, which has been widely used for project evaluation. However, in many cases it has been difficult to assign dollar costs to those criteria involving risks and benefits which are not now assigned explicit monetary values in our economic system. Hence, risk-benefit analysis has evolved to become more than merely an extension of cost-benefit analysis, and many methods have been applied to examine the trade-offs between risks and benefits. In addition, new scientific and statistical techniques have been developed for assessing current and future risks. The 950 references included in this bibliography are meant to suggest the breadth of those methodologies which have been applied to decisions involving risk

  3. Analysis of labour risks in the Spanish industrial aerospace sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JUAN LAGUARDIA

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Labour risk prevention is an activity integrated within Safety and Hygiene at Work in Spain. In 2003, the Electronic Declaration for Accidents at Work, Delt@ (DELTA was introduced. The industrial aerospace sector is subject to various risks. Our objective is to analyse the Spanish Industrial Aerospace Sector (SIAS using the ACSOM methodology to assess its labour risks and to prioritise preventive actions. The SIAS and the Services Subsector (SS were created and the relevant accident rate data were obtained. The ACSOM method was applied through double contrast (deviation and translocation of the SIAS or SS risk polygon with the considered pattern, accidents from all sectors (ACSOM G or the SIAS. A list of risks was obtained, ordered by action phases. In the SIAS vs. ACSOM G analysis, radiation risks were the worst, followed by overstrains. Accidents caused by living beings were also significant in the SS vs. SIAE, which will be able to be used to improve Risk Prevention. Radiation is the most significant risk in the SIAS and the SS. Preventive actions will be primary and secondary. ACSOM has shown itself to be a valid tool for the analysis of labour risks.

  4. Analysis of labour risks in the Spanish industrial aerospace sector.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laguardia, Juan; Rubio, Emilio; Garcia, Ana; Garcia-Foncillas, Rafael

    2016-01-01

    Labour risk prevention is an activity integrated within Safety and Hygiene at Work in Spain. In 2003, the Electronic Declaration for Accidents at Work, Delt@ (DELTA) was introduced. The industrial aerospace sector is subject to various risks. Our objective is to analyse the Spanish Industrial Aerospace Sector (SIAS) using the ACSOM methodology to assess its labour risks and to prioritise preventive actions. The SIAS and the Services Subsector (SS) were created and the relevant accident rate data were obtained. The ACSOM method was applied through double contrast (deviation and translocation) of the SIAS or SS risk polygon with the considered pattern, accidents from all sectors (ACSOM G) or the SIAS. A list of risks was obtained, ordered by action phases. In the SIAS vs. ACSOM G analysis, radiation risks were the worst, followed by overstrains. Accidents caused by living beings were also significant in the SS vs. SIAE, which will be able to be used to improve Risk Prevention. Radiation is the most significant risk in the SIAS and the SS. Preventive actions will be primary and secondary. ACSOM has shown itself to be a valid tool for the analysis of labour risks.

  5. APPROPRIATE ALLOCATION OF CONTINGENCY USING RISK ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andi Andi

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Many cost overruns in the world of construction are attributable to either unforeseen events or foreseen events for which uncertainty was not appropriately accommodated. It is argued that a significant improvement to project management performance may result from greater attention to the process of analyzing project risks. The objective of this paper is to propose a risk analysis methodology for appropriate allocation of contingency in project cost estimation. In the first step, project risks will be identified. Influence diagramming technique is employed to identify and to show how the risks affect the project cost elements and also the relationships among the risks themselves. The second step is to assess the project costs with regards to the risks under consideration. Using a linguistic approach, the degree of uncertainty of identified project risks is assessed and quantified. The problem of dependency between risks is taken into consideration during this analysis. For the final step, as the main purpose of this paper, a method for allocating appropriate contingency is presented. Two types of contingencies, i.e. project contingency and management reserve are proposed to accommodate the risks. An illustrative example is presented at the end to show the application of the methodology.

  6. Risk profile of microbiological and chemical contamination in the production chain of nine horticultural products for fresh consumption of a group of agricultural companies in the Costa Rican Central Valley

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guillermo Vargas Hernández

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The risk of microbiological or chemical contamination was determined in each of the processes of the production system of produce for fresh consumption, in a population of 164 agricultural companies in the central valley of Costa Rica. The risk quantification was calculated using the responses to a 46-item survey conducted with the managers of the companies included in the study. The responses to the 46 items were grouped according to the production process; the risk contamination calculation formula validated by the authors in another study was used to obtain the risk value per process. The microbiological or chemical contamination risk results were calculated for the land preparation and planting process, cultural management of the crop, human factor performing the cultural management of the crop, phytosanitary control, harvesting, packaging, and the human factor involved in packaging. The risk analysis results indicate that the human factor participating in the packaging obtains the highest risk rating, followed by the cultural management of the crop and, in third place, by the harvesting process. In all processes where the risk was quantified, the results showed values close to or greater than 50 in a 0 to 100 risk scale. These results should alert producers and consumers of produce for fresh consumption in the analyzed population. The effect of the buyer on the packaging risk values was also observed; when the producers are supermarket chain suppliers the risk values are lower as compared to those of producers who are not supermarket chain suppliers.

  7. Is violence associated with increased risk behavior among MSM? Evidence from a population-based survey conducted across nine cities in Central America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheeler, Jennifer; Anfinson, Katherine; Valvert, Dennis; Lungo, Susana

    2014-01-01

    There is a dearth of research examining the linkages between violence and HIV risk behavior among men who have sex with men (MSM), including those who identify as transgender women (TW), particularly in Central America where violence is widespread. In this paper, we use population-based survey results to independently examine the correlations between physical, emotional and sexual violence and HIV risk behavior among MSM populations in five countries in Central America. As part of USAID's Combination Prevention for HIV program in Central America, PASMO conducted population based surveys using respondent-driven sampling (RDS) in nine cities in Guatemala, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama. Initial seeds were recruited using the following criteria: individuals who represented subgroups of MSM by self-identification (homosexual vs. heterosexual or bisexual vs. transgender), social economic strata, and by sex work practices. This study examines the association between violence and 1) HIV risk behaviors relevant to the study populations; 2) protective behaviors; and 3) reported STIs. Individualized RDS estimator weights for each outcome variable were calculated using RDSAT software, and logistic regression analysis was used to determine associations between different forms of violence and the outcome variables. MSM who experienced physical violence were more likely to be engaged in transactional sex (OR: 1.76 [1.42-2.18]), have multiple partners in the past 30 days (OR: 1.37 [1.09-1.71]), and have engaged in sex under the influence of alcohol or drugs (OR: 1.51 [1.24-1.83]). Both physical violence and psychological/verbal violence were also associated with reporting STI symptoms or diagnosis within the past 12 months (OR: 1.72 [1.34-2.21] and 1.80 [1.45-2.23]). The effects of violence on the outcomes were observed after controlling for other risk factors. Transgender women were 3.9 times more likely to report engaging in transactional sex. Respondents who

  8. Is violence associated with increased risk behavior among MSM? Evidence from a population-based survey conducted across nine cities in Central America

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer Wheeler

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Background/Objective: There is a dearth of research examining the linkages between violence and HIV risk behavior among men who have sex with men (MSM, including those who identify as transgender women (TW, particularly in Central America where violence is widespread. In this paper, we use population-based survey results to independently examine the correlations between physical, emotional and sexual violence and HIV risk behavior among MSM populations in five countries in Central America. Design: As part of USAID's Combination Prevention for HIV program in Central America, PASMO conducted population based surveys using respondent-driven sampling (RDS in nine cities in Guatemala, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama. Initial seeds were recruited using the following criteria: individuals who represented subgroups of MSM by self-identification (homosexual vs. heterosexual or bisexual vs. transgender, social economic strata, and by sex work practices. This study examines the association between violence and 1 HIV risk behaviors relevant to the study populations; 2 protective behaviors; and 3 reported STIs. Individualized RDS estimator weights for each outcome variable were calculated using RDSAT software, and logistic regression analysis was used to determine associations between different forms of violence and the outcome variables. Results: MSM who experienced physical violence were more likely to be engaged in transactional sex (OR: 1.76 [1.42–2.18], have multiple partners in the past 30 days (OR: 1.37 [1.09–1.71], and have engaged in sex under the influence of alcohol or drugs (OR: 1.51 [1.24–1.83]. Both physical violence and psychological/verbal violence were also associated with reporting STI symptoms or diagnosis within the past 12 months (OR: 1.72 [1.34–2.21] and 1.80 [1.45–2.23]. The effects of violence on the outcomes were observed after controlling for other risk factors. Transgender women were 3.9 times more likely

  9. Structural reliability analysis and seismic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hwang, H.; Reich, M.; Shinozuka, M.

    1984-01-01

    This paper presents a reliability analysis method for safety evaluation of nuclear structures. By utilizing this method, it is possible to estimate the limit state probability in the lifetime of structures and to generate analytically the fragility curves for PRA studies. The earthquake ground acceleration, in this approach, is represented by a segment of stationary Gaussian process with a zero mean and a Kanai-Tajimi Spectrum. All possible seismic hazard at a site represented by a hazard curve is also taken into consideration. Furthermore, the limit state of a structure is analytically defined and the corresponding limit state surface is then established. Finally, the fragility curve is generated and the limit state probability is evaluated. In this paper, using a realistic reinforced concrete containment as an example, results of the reliability analysis of the containment subjected to dead load, live load and ground earthquake acceleration are presented and a fragility curve for PRA studies is also constructed

  10. Risk analysis and evaluation of agricultural drought disaster in the major grain-producing areas, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zongtang Xie

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The analysis and evaluation of agricultural drought risk can assist in reducing regional disasters and agricultural drought losses. Because of the uncertainties and incomplete agricultural drought information, this paper employed an information diffusion technology and information matrix to identify a drought disaster risk distribution and to quantify the relationship between the annual drought-affected rate and the grain production losses in China's major grain-producing areas. From the assessment results, provincial drought disaster risk spatial distribution maps for each major grain-producing area in China were obtained. These risk patterns showed that the probability of drought fell when the annual drought-covered rate and the annual drought-affected rate increased, and that the high risk areas were located primarily in China's northern and central provinces. These results can provide the basis for the development of effective drought mitigation strategies which would be able to inform possible drought situations and allow for easier decision-making on drought resistance strategies. The fuzzy relationship between the annual drought-affected rate and the drought-caused grain production losses provides vital information for the development of disaster compensation plans. Furthermore, the results of this study indicated that the proposed methods had superior detection stability and higher precision. We hope that by conducting such agricultural drought risk analysis, the results are able to provide the basis for the development of drought mitigation strategies to reduce future losses.

  11. Assessment of the risk of fall, related to visual stimulation, in patients with central vestibular disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suárez, H; Musé, P; Suárez, A; Arocena, M

    2001-01-01

    In order to assess the influence of visual stimulation in the triggering of imbalance and falls in the elderly population, the postural responses of 18 elderly patients with central vestibular disorders and clinical evidence of instability and falls were studied while receiving different types of visual stimuli. The stimulation conditions were: (i) no specific stimuli; (ii) smooth pursuit with pure sinusoids of 0.2 Hz as foveal stimulation; and (iii) optokinetic stimulation (OK) as retinal stimuli. Using a platform AMTI Accusway platform, the 95% confidence ellipse (CE) and sway velocity (SV) were evaluated with a scalogram using wavelets in order to assess the relationship between time and frequency in postural control. Velocity histograms were also constructed in order to observe the distribution of velocity values during the recording. A non-homogeneous postural behavior after visual stimulation was found among this population. In five of the patients the OK stimulation generated: (i) significantly higher average values of CE ( > 3.4+/-0.69 cm2); (ii) a significant increase in the average values of the SV ( > 3.89+/-1.15 cm/s) and a velocity histogram with a homogeneous distribution between 0 and 18 cm/s; and (iii) a scalogram with sway frequencies of up to 4 Hz distributed in both the X and Y directions (backwards and forwards and lateral) during visual stimulation with arbitrary units of energy density > 5. These three qualitative and quantitative aspects could be "markers" of visual dependence in the triggering of the mechanism of lack of equilibrium and hence falls in some elderly patients and should be considered in order to prevent falls and also to assist in the rehabilitation program of these patients.

  12. Methodology for flood risk analysis for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wagner, D.P.; Casada, M.L.; Fussell, J.B.

    1984-01-01

    The methodology for flood risk analysis described here addresses the effects of a flood on nuclear power plant safety systems. Combining the results of this method with the probability of a flood allows the effects of flooding to be included in a probabilistic risk assessment. The five-step methodology includes accident sequence screening to focus the detailed analysis efforts on the accident sequences that are significantly affected by a flood event. The quantitative results include the flood's contribution to system failure probability, accident sequence occurrence frequency and consequence category occurrence frequency. The analysis can be added to existing risk assessments without a significant loss in efficiency. The results of two example applications show the usefulness of the methodology. Both examples rely on the Reactor Safety Study for the required risk assessment inputs and present changes in the Reactor Safety Study results as a function of flood probability

  13. Methodology for risk-based analysis of technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vesely, W.E.; Gaertner, J.P.; Wagner, D.P.

    1985-01-01

    Part of the effort by EPRI to apply probabilistic risk assessment methods and results to the solution of utility problems involves the investigation of methods for risk-based analysis of technical specifications. The culmination of this investigation is the SOCRATES computer code developed by Battelle's Columbus Laboratories to assist in the evaluation of technical specifications of nuclear power plants. The program is designed to use information found in PRAs to re-evaluate risk for changes in component allowed outage times (AOTs) and surveillance test intervals (STIs). The SOCRATES program is a unique and important tool for technical specification evaluations. The detailed component unavailability model allows a detailed analysis of AOT and STI contributions to risk. Explicit equations allow fast and inexpensive calculations. Because the code is designed to accept ranges of parameters and to save results of calculations that do not change during the analysis, sensitivity studies are efficiently performed and results are clearly displayed

  14. Maritime transportation risk analysis: Review and analysis in light of some foundational issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goerlandt, Floris; Montewka, Jakub

    2015-01-01

    Many methods and applications for maritime transportation risk analysis have been presented in the literature. In parallel, there is a recent focus on foundational issues in risk analysis, with calls for intensified research on fundamental concepts and principles underlying the scientific field. This paper presents a review and analysis of risk definitions, perspectives and scientific approaches to risk analysis found in the maritime transportation application area, focusing on applications addressing accidental risk of shipping in a sea area. For this purpose, a classification of risk definitions, an overview of elements in risk perspectives and a classification of approaches to risk analysis science are applied. Results reveal that in the application area, risk is strongly tied to probability, both in definitions and perspectives, while alternative views exist. A diffuse situation is also found concerning the scientific approach to risk analysis, with realist, proceduralist and constructivist foundations co-existing. Realist approaches dominate the application area. Very few applications systematically account for uncertainty, neither concerning the evidence base nor in relation to the limitations of the risk model in relation to the space of possible outcomes. Some suggestions are made to improve the current situation, aiming to strengthen the scientific basis for risk analysis. - Highlights: • Risk analyses in maritime transportation analysed in light of foundational issues. • Focus on definitions, perspectives and scientific approaches to risk analysis. • Probability-based definitions and realist approaches dominate the field. • Findings support calls for increased focus on foundational issues in risk research. • Some suggestions are made to improve the current situation

  15. Prevalence and risk factors of obesity and hypertension among students at a central university in the West Bank.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tayem, Yasin I; Yaseen, Nagham A; Khader, Wiam T; Abu Rajab, Lama O; Ramahi, Ahmad B; Saleh, Mohammad H

    2012-01-01

    We aimed to determine the prevalence and correlates of obesity and hypertension (HTN) among students at a central university in the West Bank. This cross-sectional study targeted a cohort of 553 students (59.5% males, 40.5% females) aged 17-26 years (median = 21) from Al-Quds University. Body mass index (BMI) and blood pressure (BP) were measured. Participants completed a questionnaire on physical activity, sedentary behavior, dietary factors, smoking and family history of obesity, HTN, and coronary artery disease. The magnitude of correlation was assessed by Spearman's rho (r(s)) and Chi-square tests. The prevalence of overweight was 25% (31.1% males, 15.6% females) and obesity 7.2% (9.4% males, 4% females). Obesity and overweight were associated with family history of obesity in both genders (pinterventional program is urgently needed to control these cardiovascular risk factors in this community.

  16. Performances of the UNDERground SEISmic array for the analysis of seismicity in Central Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Scarpa

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the first results from the operation of a dense seismic array deployed in the underground Physics Laboratories at Gran Sasso (Central Italy. The array consists of 13 short-period, three-component seismometers with an aperture of about 550 m and average sensor spacing of 90 m. The reduced sensor spacing, joined to the spatially-white character of the background noise allows for quick and reliable detection of coherent wavefront arrivals even under very poor SNR conditions. We apply high-resolution frequency-slowness and polarization analyses to a set of 27 earthquakes recorded between November, 2002, and September, 2003, at epicentral distances spanning the 20-140 km interval. We locate these events using inversion of P- and S-wave backazimuths and S-P delay times, and compare the results with data from the Centralized National Seismic Network catalog. For the case of S-wave, the discrepancies among the two set of locations never exceed 10 km; the largest errors are instead observed for the case of P-waves. This observation may be due to the fact that the small array aperture does not allow for robust assessment of waves propagating at high apparent velocities. This information is discussed with special reference to the directions of future studies aimed at elucidating the location of seismogenetic structures in Central Italy from extended analysis of the micro-seismicity.

  17. Analysis of the horizontal corneal diameter, central corneal thickness, and axial length in premature infants

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    Ozdemir Ozdemir

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: To determine the horizontal corneal diameter, central corneal thickness, and axial length in premature infants. Methods: Infants with a birth weight of less than 2,500 g or with a gestation period of less than 36 weeks were included in the study. Infants with retinopathy of prematurity (ROP were allocated to Group 1 (n=138, while those without ROP were allocated to Group 2 (n=236. All infants underwent a complete ophthalmologic examination, including corneal diameter measurements, pachymetry, biometry, and fundoscopy. Between-group comparisons of horizontal corneal diameter, central corneal thickness, and axial lengths were performed. Independent sample t-tests were used for statistical analysis. Results: Data was obtained from 374 eyes of 187 infants (102 female, 85 male. The mean gestational age at birth was 30.7 ± 2.7 weeks (range 25-36 weeks, the mean birth weight was 1,514 ± 533.3 g (range 750-1,970 g, and the mean postmenstrual age at examination was 40.0 ± 4.8 weeks. The mean gestational age and the mean birth weight of Group 1 were statistically lower than Group 2 (p0.05. Conclusions: The presence of ROP in premature infants does not alter the horizontal corneal diameter, central corneal thickness, or axial length.

  18. [Trophic niche partitioning of pelagic sharks in Central Eastern Pacific inferred from stable isotope analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yun Kai; Gao, Xiao di; Wang, Lin Yu; Fang, Lin

    2018-01-01

    As the apex predators of the open ocean ecosystems, pelagic sharks play important roles in stabilizing the marine food web through top-down control. Stable isotope analysis is a powerful tool to investigate the feeding ecology. The carbon and nitrogen isotope ratios can be used to trace food source and evaluate the trophic position of marine organisms. In this study, the isotope values of 130 pelagic sharks from 8 species in Central Eastern Pacific were analyzed and their trophic position and niche were calculated to compare the intra/inter-specific resource partitioning in the Central Eastern Pacific ecosystem. The results exhibited significant differences in both carbon and nitrogen isotope values among the shark species. The trophic levels ranged from 4.3 to 5.4 in the Central Eastern Pacific shark community. The trophic niche of blue sharks and shortfin mako sharks showed no overlap with the other shark species, exhibiting unique ecological roles in the open ocean food web. These data highlighted the diverse roles among pelagic sharks, supporting previous findings that this species is not trophically redundant and the trophic niche of pelagic sharks can not be simply replaced by those of other top predator species.

  19. Cost-benefit analysis of central softening for production of drinking water.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van der Bruggen, B; Goossens, H; Everard, P A; Stemgée, K; Rogge, W

    2009-01-01

    Softening drinking water before distribution yields advantages with environmental impact, such as lower household products consumption, less scaling in piping and machines, and the avoidance of decentralized, domestic softeners. Central softening is under consideration in Flanders by the largest water supplier, VMW (Dutch acronym for "Flemish Company for Water Supply"), to deliver soft (15 degrees F) water to their customers. A case study is presented for a region with hard water (47 degrees F). The chosen technique is the pellet reactor, based on precipitation of CaCO(3) by NaOH addition. This softening operation has possibly large impact on the environment and the water consumption pattern. A cost-benefit analysis has been made to estimate the added value of central softening, by investigating the impact on the drinking water company, on their customers, on employment, on environment, on health, etc. The analysis for the region of study revealed benefits for customers which were higher than the costs for the drinking water company. However, pricing of drinking water remains an important problem. A sensitivity analysis of these results has also been made, to evaluate the impact of important hypothesis, and to be able to expand this study to other regions. The conclusions for this part show that softening is beneficial if water hardness is to be decreased by at least 5 degrees F.

  20. ANALYSIS OF DEVELOPING BATIK INDUSTRY CLUSTER IN BAKARAN VILLAGE CENTRAL JAVA PROVINCE

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    Hermanto Hermanto

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available SMEs grow in a cluster in a certain geographical area. The entrepreneurs grow and thrive through the business cluster. Central Java Province has a lot of business clusters in improving the regional economy, one of which is batik industry cluster. Pati Regency is one of regencies / city in Central Java that has the lowest turnover. Batik industy cluster in Pati develops quite well, which can be seen from the increasing number of batik industry incorporated in the cluster. This research examines the strategy of developing the batik industry cluster in Pati Regency. The purpose of this research is to determine the proper strategy for developing the batik industry clusters in Pati. The method of research is quantitative. The analysis tool of this research is the Strengths, Weakness, Opportunity, Threats (SWOT analysis. The result of SWOT analysis in this research shows that the proper strategy for developing the batik industry cluster in Pati is optimizing the management of batik business cluster in Bakaran Village; the local government provides information of the facility of business capital loans; the utilization of labors from Bakaran Village while improving the quality of labors by training, and marketing the Bakaran batik to the broader markets while maintaining the quality of batik. Advice that can be given from this research is that the parties who have a role in batik industry cluster development in Bakaran Village, Pati Regency, such as the Local Government.