Sample records for risk analysis baltimore
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Dezman, Zachary; de Andrade, Luciano; Vissoci, Joao Ricardo; El-Gabri, Deena; Johnson, Abree; Hirshon, Jon Mark; Staton, Catherine A
2016-11-01
Road traffic injuries are a leading killer of youth (aged 15-29) and are projected to be the 7th leading cause of death by 2030. To better understand road traffic crash locations and characteristics in the city of Baltimore, we used police and census data, to describe the epidemiology, hotspots, and modifiable risk factors involved to guide further interventions. Data on all crashes in Baltimore City from 2009 to 2013 were made available from the Maryland Automated Accident Reporting System. Socioeconomic data collected by the US CENSUS 2010 were obtained. A time series analysis was conducted using an ARIMA model. We analyzed the geographical distribution of traffic crashes and hotspots using exploratory spatial data analysis and spatial autocorrelation. Spatial regression was performed to evaluate the impact of socioeconomic indicators on hotspots. In Baltimore City, between 2009 and 2013, there were a total of 100,110 crashes reported, with 1% of crashes considered severe. Of all crashes, 7% involved vulnerable road users and 12% had elderly or youth involvement. Reasons for crashes included: distracted driving (31%), speeding (6%), and alcohol or drug use (5%). After 2010, we observed an increasing trend in all crashes especially from March to June. Distracted driving then youth and elderly drivers were consistently the highest risk factors over time. Multivariate spatial regression model including socioeconomic indicators and controlling for age, gender and population size did not show a distinct predictor of crashes explaining only 20% of the road crash variability, indicating crashes are not geographically explained by socioeconomic indicators alone. In Baltimore City, road traffic crashes occurred predominantly in the high density center of the city, involved distracted driving and extremes of age with an increase in crashes from March to June. There was no association between socioeconomic variables where crashes occurred and hotspots. In depth analysis of
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78 FR 68002 - Safety Zone for Fireworks Display, Baltimore Harbor, Baltimore, MD
2013-11-13
... 1625-AA00 Safety Zone for Fireworks Display, Baltimore Harbor, Baltimore, MD AGENCY: Coast Guard, DHS... safety of life on navigable waters during a fireworks display launched from a barge located in Baltimore... rule involves a fireworks display associated with a New Year's Eve event that will take place in...
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Property values, parks, and crime: a hedonic analysis in Baltimore, MD
Austin Troy; J. Morgan Grove
2008-01-01
While urban parks are generally considered to be a positive amenity, past research suggests that some parks are perceived as a neighborhood liability. Using hedonic analysis of property data in Baltimore, MD, we attempted to determine whether crime rate mediates how parks are valued by the housing market. Transacted price was regressed against park proximity, area-...
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German, Danielle; Latkin, Carl A.
2015-01-01
Female injection drug users {IDU} who report sex with women are at increased risk for HIV and social instability, but it is important to assess whether these disparities also exist according to sexual minority identity rather than behaviorally defined categories. Within a sample of current IDU in Baltimore, about 17% of female study participants (n=307) identified as gay/lesbian/bisexual. In controlled models, sexual minorities were three times as likely to report sex exchange behavior and fo...
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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — In the spring of 2008, the City of Baltimore expressed an interest to upgrade the City GIS Database with mapping quality airborne LiDAR data. The City of Baltimore...
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Visualizing and Understanding Socio-Environmental Dynamics in Baltimore
Zaitchik, B. F.; Omeara, K.; Guikema, S.; Scott, A.; Bessho, A.; Logan, T. M.
2015-12-01
The City of Baltimore, like any city, is the sum of its component neighborhoods, institutions, businesses, cultures, and, ultimately, its people. It is also an organism in its own right, with distinct geography, history, infrastructure, and environments that shape its residents even as it is shaped by them. Sometimes these interactions are obvious but often they are not; while basic economic patterns are widely documented, the distribution of socio-spatial and environmental connections often hides below the surface, as does the potential that those connections hold. Here we present results of a collaborative initiative on the geography, design, and policy of socio-environmental dynamics of Baltimore. Geospatial data derived from satellite imagery, demographic databases, social media feeds, infrastructure plans, and in situ environmental networks, among other sources, are applied to generate an interactive portrait of Baltimore City's social, health, and well-being dynamics. The layering of data serves as a platform for visualizing the interconnectedness of the City and as a database for modeling risk interactions, vulnerabilities, and strengths within and between communities. This presentation will provide an overview of project findings and highlight linkages to education and policy.
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German, Danielle; Brady, Kathleen; Kuo, Irene; Opoku, Jenevieve; Flynn, Colin; Patrick, Rudy; Park, Ju Nyeong; Adams, Joella; Carroll, Makeda; Simmons, Ron; Smith, Carlton R; Davis, Wendy W
2017-07-01
Baltimore, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC are geographically proximate cities with high HIV prevalence, including among black men who have sex with men (BMSM). Using data collected among BMSM in CDC's National HIV Behavioral Surveillance project, we compared socio-demographic characteristics, HIV risk behaviors, and service utilization to explore similarities and differences that could inform local and regional HIV intervention approaches. BMSM were recruited through venue time location sampling, June-December, 2011. Participants completed identical socio-behavioral surveys and voluntary HIV testing. Analyses were conducted among the full sample and those aged 18-24. Participants included 159 (DC), 364 (Baltimore), and 331 (Philadelphia) eligible BMSM. HIV prevalence was 23.1% (DC), 48.0% (Baltimore), 14.6% (Philadelphia) with 30.6%, 69.0%, 33.3% unrecognized HIV infection, respectively. Among BMSM 18-24, HIV prevalence was 11.1% (DC), 38.9% (Baltimore), 9.6% (Philadelphia) with unrecognized HIV infection 0.0%, 73.8%, 60.0% respectively. Compared with the other 2 cities, Baltimore participants were less likely to identify as gay/homosexual; more likely to report unemployment, incarceration, homelessness, sex exchange; and least likely to use the internet for partners. DC participants were more likely to have a college degree and employment. Philadelphia participants were more likely to report gay/homosexual identity, receptive condomless anal sex, having only main partners, and bars/clubs as partner meeting places. Sexually transmitted disease testing was universally low. Analyses showed especially high HIV prevalence among BMSM in Baltimore including among young BMSM. Socio-demographic characteristics and HIV infection correlates differed across cities but unrecognized HIV infection and unknown partner status were universally high.
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Carroll, Vanessa G.; Harris-Bondima, Michelle; Norris, Kathleen Kennedy; Williams, Carolane
2010-01-01
Baltimore City Community College (BCCC) leveraged heightened student interest and enrollment in the sciences and allied health with Maryland's world-leading biotechnology industry to build a community college life sciences learning and research center right on the University of Maryland, Baltimore's downtown BioPark campus. The BCCC Life Sciences…
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German, Danielle; Latkin, Carl A.
2015-01-01
Female injection drug users {IDU} who report sex with women are at increased risk for HIV and social instability, but it is important to assess whether these disparities also exist according to sexual minority identity rather than behaviorally defined categories. Within a sample of current IDU in Baltimore, about 17% of female study participants (n=307) identified as gay/lesbian/bisexual. In controlled models, sexual minorities were three times as likely to report sex exchange behavior and four times as likely to report a recent STI. Injection risk did not differ significantly, but sexual minority women reported higher prevalence of socio-economic instability, negative health indicators, and fewer network financial, material, and health support resources. There is a need to identify and address socio-economic marginalization, social support, and health issues among female IDUs who identify as lesbian or bisexual. PMID:25504312
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Sediment accumulation and water volume in Loch Raven Reservoir, Baltimore County, Maryland
Banks, William S.L.; LaMotte, Andrew E.
1999-01-01
Baltimore City and its metropolitan area are supplied with water from three reservoirs, Liberty Reservoir, Prettyboy Reservoir, and Loch Raven Reservoir. Prettyboy and Loch Raven Reservoirs are located on the Gunpowder Falls (figure 1). The many uses of the reservoir system necessitate coordination and communication among resource managers. The 1996 Amendment to the Safe Drinking Water Act require States to complete source-water assessments for public drinking-water supplies. As part of an ongoing effort to provide safe drinking water and as a direct result of these laws, the City of Baltimore and the Maryland Department of the Environment (MDE), in cooperation with other State and local agencies, are studying the Gunpowder Falls Basin and its role as a source of water supply to the Baltimore area. As a part of this study, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Maryland Geological Survey (MGS), with funding provided by the City of Baltimore and MDE, is examining sediment accumulation in Loch Raven Reservoir. The Baltimore City Department of Public Works periodically determines the amount of water that can be stored in its reservoirs. To make this determination, field crews measure the water depth along predetermined transects or ranges. These transects provide consistent locations where water depth, or bathymetric, measurements can be made. Range surveys are repeated to provide a record of the change in storage capacity due to sediment accumulation over time. Previous bathymetric surveys of Loch Raven Reservoir were performed in 1943, 1961, 1972, and 1985. Errors in data-collection and analysis methods have been assessed and documented (Baltimore City Department of Public Works, 1989). Few comparisons can be made among survey results because of changing data-collection techniques and analysis methods.
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Proximity to vacant buildings is associated with increased fire risk in Baltimore, Maryland, homes.
Schachterle, Stephen E; Bishai, David; Shields, Wendy; Stepnitz, Rebecca; Gielen, Andrea C
2012-04-01
Fires and burns are a leading cause of unintentional injury death in the USA. Although it has been anecdotally reported that vacant dwellings are at a higher risk for fire, the association between vacancy and fire risk at the individual household level has not been empirically measured. In this cross-sectional study, geocoded residential vacant properties (VP) and fire events are analysed in Baltimore City at the census tract level and the individual household level. On average, a 10% increase in the proportion of vacancies in a census tract was associated with a 9.9% increase in fires (95% CI: 5% to 15%). Random-effects Poisson models, controlling for housing and neighbourhood conditions, found contagion effects. The risk of fire in an occupied dwelling increased by 8% (95% CI: 1% to 10%) for every vacant structure within 10 m, and the risk of fire decreased by half (95% CI: 45% to 62%) for every km between an occupied dwelling and vacant building. Close proximity to VP was associated with trash fires within dwellings (p=0.039) and structure fires (p=0.012). We believe that this is the first study to demonstrate increased risk posed by nearby VP at the household level, confirming earlier ecological analyses of the role of VP as strong correlates of home fires. Measurement of this risk can motivate property owners, policy makers and insurers to invest in risk reduction measures that include building maintenance and trash removal.
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Hopkins, Barbara L.
2015-01-01
Only one in five graduates of Baltimore City Public Schools matriculates to a four-year college; the vast majority enroll in community college or look for a full-time job. Baltimore graduates and job-seekers need postsecondary training that works. "The Path to Baltimore's 'Best Prospect' Jobs without a College Degree: Career Credentialing…
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NAA of an iridium tracer to determine soot exposure of students commuting on Baltimore`s buses
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ondov, J.M.; Wu, C.C.; Lin, Zhibo; Kidwell, C.B. [Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States)
1997-12-01
Epidemiologic studies suggest that short-term increases in indices of particulate air pollution are associated with increased mortality and morbidity from respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. An important component of urban aerosol, diesel soot, is a known respiratory irritant and contains mutagenic and carcinogenic organic compounds. In the United States, motor vehicles are thought to be the largest single source of atmospheric soot and account for {approximately}36% of the annual anthropogenic emission of toxic polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH). Much of the motor-vehicle-derived PAH originates from diesel-powered vehicles because their PAH emissions are up to 50-fold greater than those from gasoline engines. In Baltimore, city high school students take public buses to school and, often, must stand at bus stops while many diesel buses pass or stop before their own buses arrive. To estimate student exposures to soot emitted from public diesel buses (MTA) during commutes to city high schools, the Baltimore municipal fuel supply was tagged with an iridium tracer, and exposure was monitored during commutes with personal aerosol monitors as a part of the Baltimore Environmental Justice Project.
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Cotter, Susan; Varma, Rohit; Tarczy-Hornoch, Kristina; McKean-Cowdin, Roberta; Lin, Jesse; Wen, Ge; Wei, Jolyn; Borchert, Mark; Azen, Stan; Torres, Mina; Tielsch, James M.; Friedman, David S.; Repka, Michael X.; Ibironke, Joanne Katz Josephine; Giordano, Lydia
2011-01-01
Objective To investigate risk factors associated with esotropia or exotropia in infants and young children. Design Population-based cross-sectional prevalence study. Participants Population-based samples of 9970 children ages 6 to 72 months from California and Maryland. Methods Participants were preschool African-American, Hispanic, and non-Hispanic white children participating in the Multiethnic Pediatric Eye Disease Study and the Baltimore Eye Disease Study. Data were obtained by parental interview and ocular examination. Odd ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated to evaluate the association of demographic, behavioral, and clinical risk factors with esotropia and exotropia. Main Outcome Measures Odds ratios (ORs) for various risk factors associated with esotropia or exotropia diagnosis based on cover testing. Results In multivariate logistic regression analysis, esotropia was independently associated with prematurity, maternal smoking during pregnancy, older preschool age (48–72 months), anisometropia, and hyperopia. There was a severity-dependent association of hyperopia with the prevalence of esotropia, with ORs increasing from 6.4 for 2.00 Diopters (D) to strabismus, female sex, astigmatism (OR 2.5 for 1.50 to <2.50 D, and 5.9 for ≥ 2.5 D of astigmatism), and aniso-astigmatism in the J0 component (OR ≥ 2 for J0 aniso-astigmatism ≥ 0.25 D). Conclusions Prematurity and maternal smoking during pregnancy are associated with a higher risk of having esotropia and exotropia. Refractive error is associated in a severity-dependent manner to the prevalence of esotropia and exotropia. Because refractive error is correctable, these risk associations should be considered when developing guidelines for the screening and management of refractive error in infants and young children children. PMID:21856012
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The geographic epidemiology of Mycobacterium tuberculosis disease in Baltimore, 1971-1995
Obasanjo, Olugbenga Olufemi
Given the reemergence of Tuberculosis (TB) in the United States (U.S.) in the 1980s and 1990s, several strategies have emerged to combat the disease. A successful tool has been Directly Observed Therapy (DOT). Chaulk, et al. showed that DOT was responsible for the maintaining the decline in TB rates in Baltimore through the corresponding period of an upswing in rates nationally. In this study, we measure the impact of DOT on the geographic pattern of TB in Baltimore. We used Geographical Information System (GIS) methods to compare the geographic patterns of TB in Baltimore before and after the introduction of DOT in the city. We identified both predictors of TB, and differences in geographic units in Baltimore over time. We measured the impact of the introduction of DOT and Rifampin on various treatment outcomes for TB at about the same time. Despite the drop in numbers of TB cases, the spatial distribution of cases generally remained unchanged until 1995. This was confirmed by the fact that similar predictors were identified in all of the years that were analyzed. However, higher proportions of TB cases were found among blacks and females in more recent years. Death rates have increased significantly while corresponding relapse rates and the mean length of therapy have declined significantly. Rifampin was associated with a longer length of therapy before DOT, but with a shorter duration of therapy following the introduction of DOT. In all of the years analyzed, losses to follow-up (LTFU) do not differ from those completing therapy and are not spatially clustered relative to those completing therapy. DOT has been effective in reducing the numbers of TB cases in Baltimore city-wide without an emphasis on so-called "high-risk" patients for LTFU. Thus, any declines in TB case rates are not due to a decline in a particular group or geographic sector of the city. Universal DOT is effective and does not cause a geographic clustering of difficult-to-reach patients. This
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HIV seroconversion among Baltimore City residents tested at a mobile van programme.
Puryear, Sarah; Burnett, Phyllis; Page, Kathleen R; Muvva, Ravikiran; Chaulk, Patrick; Ghanem, Khalil G; Monroe, Anne
2018-02-01
Many individuals with HIV in the USA are unaware of their diagnosis, and therefore cannot be engaged in treatment services, have worse clinical outcomes and are more likely to transmit HIV to others. Mobile van testing may increase HIV testing and diagnosis. Our objective was to characterise risk factors for HIV seroconversion among individuals using mobile van testing. A case cohort study (n=543) was conducted within an HIV surveillance dataset of mobile van testing users with at least two HIV tests between September 2004 and August 2009 in Baltimore, Maryland. A subcohort (n=423) was randomly selected; all additional cases were added from the parent cohort. Cases (n=122 total, two from random subcohort) had documented seroconversion at the follow-up visit. A unique aspect of the analysis was use of Department of Corrections data to document incarceration between the times of initial and subsequent testing. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were used to compare HIV transmission risk factors between individuals who seroconverted and those who did not. One hundred and twenty-two HIV seroconversions occurred among 8756 individuals (1.4%), a rate higher than that in Baltimore City Health Department's STD Clinic clients (1%). Increased HIV seroconversion risk was associated with men who have sex with men (MSM) (HR 32.76, 95% CI 5.62 to 191.12), sex with an HIV positive partner (HR 70.2, 95% CI 9.58 to 514.89), and intravenous drug use (IDU) (HR 5.65, 95% CI 2.41 to 13.23). HIV testing is a crucial first step in the HIV care continuum and an important HIV prevention tool. This study confirmed the need to reach high-risk populations (MSM, sex with HIV-positive individuals, individuals with IDU) and to increase comprehensive prevention services so that high-risk individuals stay HIV uninfected. HIV testing in mobile vans may be an effective outreach strategy for identifying infection in certain populations at high risk for HIV. © Article author(s) (or
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Steward T.A. Pickett; Kenneth T. Belt; Michael F. Galvin; Peter M. Groffman; J. Morgan Grove; Donald C. Outen; Richard V. Pouyat; William P. Stack; Mary L. Cadenasso
2007-01-01
The Water and Watersheds program has made significant and lasting contributions to the basic understanding of the complex ecological system of Baltimore, MD. Funded at roughly the same time as the urban Long- Term Ecological Research (LTER) project in Baltimore, the Water and Watersheds grant and the LTER grant together established the Baltimore Ecosystem Study (BES)...
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40 CFR 81.28 - Metropolitan Baltimore Intrastate Air Quality Control Region.
2010-07-01
... Quality Control Region. 81.28 Section 81.28 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY... Air Quality Control Regions § 81.28 Metropolitan Baltimore Intrastate Air Quality Control Region. The Metropolitan Baltimore Intrastate Air Quality Control Region (Maryland) consists of the territorial area...
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The Baltimore Engineers and the Chesapeake Bay, 1961-1987
1988-01-01
Army Engineer Waterways Experiment Station: David F. Bastian and Norman W. Scheffner. At the University of Maryland Baltimore County: Howard E...Howard, Smallwood and Armisted. By the time of the Civil War, Baltimore was one of the best defended ports in the world. The forts at Hampton Roads and...Marine Sciences. The salinity and current velocity data were collected at 199 and 205 stations respectively. Norman Scheffner of WES de- veloped a
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75 FR 24774 - Fairmount Bank, Baltimore, MD; Approval of Conversion Application
2010-05-05
... DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY Office of Thrift Supervision [AC-36 OTS Nos. 08193 and H4677] Fairmount Bank, Baltimore, MD; Approval of Conversion Application Notice is hereby given that on April 15, 2010, the Office of Thrift Supervision approved the application of Fairmount Bank, Baltimore, Maryland, to...
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The ABCs of Keeping on Track to Graduation: Research Findings from Baltimore
Mac Iver, Martha Abele; Messel, Matthew
2013-01-01
This study of graduation outcomes in Baltimore uses multivariate analysis of longitudinal student cohort data to examine the impact of factors identified in previous research as early warning indicators of a dropout outcome. Student cohort files were constructed from longitudinal administrative data (following all first-time 2004-2005 and…
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Characteristics of Prepared Food Sources in Low-Income Neighborhoods of Baltimore City
LEE, SEUNG HEE; ROWAN, MEGAN T.; POWELL, LISA M.; NEWMAN, SARA; KLASSEN, ANN CARROLL; FRICK, KEVIN D.; ANDERSON, JENNIFER; GITTELSOHN, JOEL
2010-01-01
The food environment is associated with obesity risk and diet-related chronic diseases. Despite extensive research conducted on retail food stores, little is known about prepared food sources (PFSs). We conducted an observational assessment of all PFSs (N = 92) in low-income neighborhoods in Baltimore. The most common PFSs were carry-outs, which had the lowest availability of healthy food choices. Only a small proportion of these carry-outs offered healthy sides, whole wheat bread, or entrée ...
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78 FR 73438 - Reorganization of Sector Baltimore and Hampton Roads; Conforming Amendments
2013-12-06
...-0251] RIN 1625-ZA32 Reorganization of Sector Baltimore and Hampton Roads; Conforming Amendments AGENCY... Roads' Marine Inspection Zone and Captain of the Port Zones. These conforming amendments are necessary... lines separating Sector Baltimore and Sector Hampton Roads. See Operating Facility Change Order (OFCO...
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Baltimore District Tackles High Suspension Rates
Maxwell, Lesli A.
2007-01-01
This article reports on how the Baltimore District tackles its high suspension rates. Driven by an increasing belief that zero-tolerance disciplinary policies are ineffective, more educators are embracing strategies that do not exclude misbehaving students from school for offenses such as insubordination, disrespect, cutting class, tardiness, and…
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Baltimore Air Toxics Study (BATS)
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Sullivan, D.A. [Sullivan Environmental Consulting, Inc., Alexandria, VA (United States)
1996-12-31
The Baltimore Air Toxics Study is one of the three urban air toxics initiatives funded by EPA to support the development of the national air toxics strategy. As part of this project, the Air Quality Integrated Management System (AIMS) is under development. AIMS is designed to bring together the key components of urban air quality management into an integrated system, including emissions assessment, air quality modeling, and air quality monitoring. Urban area source emissions are computed for a wide range of pollutants and source categories, and are joined with existing point source emissions data. Measured air quality data are used to evaluate the adequacy of the emissions data and model treatments as a function of season, meteorological parameters, and daytime/nighttime conditions. Based on tested model performance, AIMS provides the potential to improve the ability to predict air quality benefits of alternative control options for criteria and toxic air pollutants. This paper describes the methods used to develop AIMS, and provides examples from its application in the Baltimore metropolitan area. The use of AIMS in the future to enhance environmental management of major industrial facilities also will be addressed in the paper.
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The process for technology transfer in Baltimore
Golden, T. S.
1978-01-01
Ingredients essential for a successful decision process relative to proper technological choices for a large city were determined during four years of experience in the NASA/Baltimore Applications Project. The general approach, rationale, and process of technology transfer are discussed.
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Measles, social media and surveillance in Baltimore City.
Warren, Katherine E; Wen, Leana S
2017-09-01
Baltimore City was faced with two potential measles outbreaks in 2015. Both cases occurred in the wake of national media attention paid to the Disneyland outbreaks of the same year. A comparative case study approach was used applying qualitative data to elicit best practices in infectious disease protocols in the age of social media. The research also used search engine data from Google Trends to track constituent engagement over time. Across the two case studies, the Baltimore City Health Department identified a number of best practices to inform the public via social media and minimize levels of misinformation and panic. These practices included clarity in messaging across platforms and public health jurisdictions; pre-emptor alerts of potential measles cases to control and shape the media messaging; and targeted, in-person outreach to engage groups in a culturally competent manner. The Baltimore City Health Department's response drew out a critical need for re-examining infectious disease protocols in the age of social media (e.g. contact notification, quarantine, media sensitivity) and anti-vaccination movements that pose new obstacles to government intervention. The benefits and challenges of greater connectivity between providers, patients, and public health officers are discussed. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.
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Bolden, Shenell L. T.
The purpose of this exploratory study was to examine key stakeholders' perceptions of the current Baltimore City Public Schools' (BCPS) sex education curriculum and to gain insight into how they believe the curriculum could be modified to be more effective. A mixed methods approach using qualitative and quantitative data collection consisting of a survey, focus group interview, and individual interviews was conducted to gather information on stakeholders' perceptions. The stakeholders included: (1) former students who received their sex education courses in the Baltimore City Public School system (BCPS); (2) teachers in BCPS who were affiliated with the sex education curriculum; (3) health care professionals who screened and/or treated East Baltimore City residents for a sexually transmitted disease (STD) and; (4) one policy maker who was responsible for creating sex education curriculum at the national level. Analysis of the quantitative data from former Baltimore City Public School students revealed a general satisfaction with the current sex education curriculum. However, qualitative data from the same group of stakeholders revealed several changes they thought should be implemented into the program in an effort to improve the current curriculum. Findings from the other groups after qualitative analysis of the interviews suggest three major themes in support of curriculum change: (1) a blended curriculum that integrates both the cognitive and affective learning domains; (2) knowledge of prevention of STD's and pregnancy; and (3) authentic teaching and learning. Results from this study strongly suggest that the Baltimore City Public School system is apathetic to the sexual health needs of students and, therefore, is inadvertently contributing to the high rate of sexually transmitted diseases among young people. Keywords: Abstinence, Affective domain, Indoctrination, Behavior Modification, Cognitive domain, Sex education curriculum, Sexually Transmitted Diseases.
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It's not easy going green: Obstacles to tree-planting programs in East Baltimore
Michael Battaglia; Geoffrey L. Buckley; Michael Galvin; Morgan. Grove
2014-01-01
In 2006, government officials in Baltimore announced plans to double the city's tree canopy over the next thirty years. While the effort has already produced positive results, many parts of the city still lack trees. In this paper we consider whether two neighborhoods in East Baltimore Berea and Madison-Eastend are suitable locations for tree...
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Baltimore: A Multifaceted Approach to Developing Relationships
Durham, Rachel E.; Shiller, Jessica; Connolly, Faith
2018-01-01
As community schools spread across the country, community school staff need effective approaches to engaging families and community-based partners. Such principles must be broadly applicable, given community schools' mandate to adapt to different local contexts. Based on recent research on Baltimore City's community schools, the authors highlight…
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Recruitment of older women: lessons learned from the Baltimore Hip Studies.
Resnick, Barbara; Concha, Betty; Burgess, Judy Graham; Fine, Mary Louise; West, Linda; Baylor, Karen; Nahm, Eun Shim; Buie, Verita Custis; Werner, Michelle; Orwig, Denise; Magaziner, Jay
2003-01-01
This study used a qualitative approach in which participants were asked to write about their experiences in recruiting older women into either one of two exercise intervention studies that are part of the Baltimore Hip Studies. The sample included 8 researcher nurses all women, White, and 42-53 years of age. Older adults, particularly older women, are less likely to participate in research studies when compared to their younger counterparts. The purpose of this study was to explore the techniques successfully used by research nurses in the Baltimore Hip Studies to recruit older women after hip fracture into exercise intervention studies. Data analysis was performed using basic content analysis (Crabtree & Miller, 1992; Miles & Huberman, 1984) "in vivo" coding (Dowd, 1991), or "grounded" coding (Glaser & Strauss, 1967), which involves using the informants' own words to capture a particular idea. A total of 16 codes were identified and reduced to nine themes. Seven themes focused on techniques that facilitated recruitment: (a) caring for individuals; (b) emphasizing benefits; (c) eliciting support from others; (d) being an expert; (e) using role models; (f) using good timing; and (g) giving good first impressions. The remaining two themes identified barriers to recruitment: (a) time commitment and (b) lack of support. Based on these themes, specific recruitment techniques are recommended. Ongoing research, however, is needed to establish the most effective recruitment procedures with older women.
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Urban Waters and the Patapsco Watershed/Baltimore Region (Maryland)
Patapsco Watershed / Baltimore Area of the Urban Waters Federal Partnership (UWFP) reconnects urban communities with their waterways by improving coordination among federal agencies and collaborating with community-led efforts.
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Levine, A. L.
1981-01-01
An engineer and a computer expert from Goddard Space Flight Center were assigned to provide technical assistance in the design and installation of a computer assisted system for dispatching and communicating with fire department personnel and equipment in Baltimore City. Primary contributions were in decision making and management processes. The project is analyzed from four perspectives: (1) fire service; (2) technology transfer; (3) public administration; and (5) innovation. The city benefitted substantially from the approach and competence of the NASA personnel. Given the proper conditions, there are distinct advantages in having a nearby Federal laboratory provide assistance to a city on a continuing basis, as is done in the Baltimore Applications Project.
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A School Voucher Program for Baltimore City
Lips, Dan
2005-01-01
Baltimore City's public school system is in crisis. Academically, the school system fails on any number of measures. The city's graduation rate is barely above 50 percent and students continually lag well behind state averages on standardized tests. Adding to these problems is the school system's current fiscal crisis, created by years of fiscal…
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2011-08-16
... 28 (2.5 acres)-- McCormick & Company, Inc., 11102 McCormick Road, Hunt Valley (Baltimore County); Proposed Site 29 (17.6 acres)--McCormick & Company, Inc., 10901 Gilroy Road, Hunt Valley (Baltimore County); and, Proposed Site 30 (8.48 acres)--McCormick & Company, Inc., 4607 Appliance Drive, Belcamp (Harford...
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Characteristics of prepared food sources in low-income neighborhoods of Baltimore City.
Lee, Seung Hee; Rowan, Megan T; Powell, Lisa M; Newman, Sara; Klassen, Ann Carroll; Frick, Kevin D; Anderson, Jennifer; Gittelsohn, Joel
2010-01-01
The food environment is associated with obesity risk and diet-related chronic diseases. Despite extensive research conducted on retail food stores, little is known about prepared food sources(PFSs). We conducted an observational assessment of all PFSs(N = 92) in low-income neighborhoods in Baltimore. The most common PFSs were carry-outs, which had the lowest availability of healthy food choices. Only a small proportion of these carry-outs offered healthy sides, whole wheat bread, or entrée salads (21.4%, 7.1%, and 33.9%, respectively). These findings suggest that carry-out-specific interventions are necessary to increase healthy food availability in low-income urban neighborhoods.
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Schwebel, Michael B
2012-07-01
Baltimore City formally began recycling in 1989 with all neighbourhoods having residential collection by 1992. Although the city of 637 000 has recycled for approximately 20 years, almost all residents in multi-family residential (MFR) housing have been and are still barred from participating at their residences. Discussions with City officials and residents have verified this antiquated policy of exclusion within MFR housing. Yet, the policy is still observed by the Department of Public Works even though the updated single-stream Code states that the 'Director of Public Works must collect all. . .recyclable materials. . .from all dwellings, including multiple-family dwellings'. The purpose of this study's is to provide policies, regulations, and recommendations for implementing requisite MFR recycling within Baltimore City. The study's methodology follows a case study approach by examining three cities in the United States that currently mandate MFR recycling: Chicago, Illinois; Boston, Massachusetts; and Arlington, Virginia. Post-analysis suggests that while some cities' MFR programmes perform poorly, each city's strengths aid in creating specific proposals that can produce a successful MFR recycling program in Baltimore City. These tenets of a future MFR recycling program form the basis of a successful MFR recycling program that will allow all city residents to participate via initiatives in the categories of both programme, accessibility, and informing and self-review.
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Accountable Talk: "Real" Conversations in Baltimore City Schools
Ahmann, Chloe
2017-01-01
This article examines the fundamental disconnect between discourses of accountability in education policy and their interpretation on the ground by parents. Based on data from two sites in Baltimore--district-led teacher training and a community facing school restructuring--I argue that both parents and education professionals consider…
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2011-01-25
... Status; Tulkoff Food Products, Inc. (Dehydrated Garlic), Baltimore, MD Pursuant to its authority under..., has made application to the Board for authority to establish a special-purpose subzone at the garlic... garlic products at the Tulkoff Food Products, Inc., facility located in Baltimore, Maryland (Subzone 74C...
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Estomin, S.L.; Beach, J.E.; Goldsmith, J.V.
1991-05-01
The two-volume report presents the results of an econometric forecast of peak load and electric power demand for the Baltimore Gas and Electric Company (BG ampersand E) through the year 2009. Separate energy sales models were estimated for residential sales in Baltimore City, residential sales in the BG ampersand E service area excluding Baltimore City, commercial sales, industrial sales, streetlighting sales, and Company use plus losses. Econometric equations were also estimated for electric space heating and air conditioning saturation in Baltimore City and in the remainder of the BG ampersand E service territory. In addition to the energy sales models and the electric space conditioning saturation models, econometric models of summer and winter peak demand on the BG ampersand E system were estimated
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Civic Engagement and Gentrification Issues in Metropolitan Baltimore
Durington, Matthew; Maddox, Camee; Ruhf, Adrienne; Gass, Shana; Schwermer, Justin
2009-01-01
Since the fall of 2006 a number of Towson University students concentrating in the discipline of anthropology have been part of a civic engagement and service-learning project focusing on an historic African-American community in Baltimore. While the focus of the research project concentrates on the processes of gentrification, individual student…
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1991-07-01
Attending Anesthesiologist The Shock Trauma Center, MIEMSS University of Maryland Medical System Editor, Chest Physiotherapy in the ICU Baltimore...D. Anticholinergic E, Anesthetic Adjuncts F. Guides to management VII. Potential Problems A. Pediatric patients B. Geriatric patients
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Relationships between pediatric asthma and socioeconomic/urban variables in Baltimore, Maryland
Kimes, Daniel; Ullah, Asad; Levine, Elissa; Nelson, Ross; Timmins, Sidey; Weiss, Sheila; Bollinger, Mary E.; Blaisdell, Carol
2004-01-01
Spatial relationships between clinical data for pediatric asthmatics (hospital and emergency department utilization rates), and socioeconomic and urban characteristics in Baltimore City were analyzed with the aim of identifying factors that contribute to increased asthma rates. Socioeconomic variables and urban characteristics derived from satellite data explained 95% of the spatial variation in hospital rates. The proportion of families headed by a single female was the most important variable accounting for 89% of the spatial variation. Evidence suggests that the high rates of hospital admissions and emergency department (ED) visits may partially be due to the difficulty of single parents with limited resources managing their child's asthma condition properly. This knowledge can be used for education towards mitigating ED and hospital events in Baltimore City.
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A broad scale analysis of tree risk, mitigation and potential habitat for cavity-nesting birds
Brian Kane; Paige S. Warren; Susannah B. Lerman
2015-01-01
Trees in towns and cities provide habitat for wildlife. In particular, cavity-nesting birds nest in the deadand decayed stems and branches of these trees. The same dead and decayed stems and branches alsohave a greater likelihood of failure, which, in some circumstances, increases risk. We examined 1760trees in Baltimore, MD, USA and western MA, USA, assessing tree...
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75 FR 30747 - Drawbridge Operation Regulation; Curtis Creek, Baltimore, MD
2010-06-02
... remote location at the City of Baltimore Transportation Management Center. This proposed change would... viewing or submitting material to the docket, call Renee V. Wright, Program Manager, Docket Operations... rule based on your comments. Viewing Comments and Documents To view comments, as well as documents...
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Community Resources for Career Education: Starring Baltimore's McCormick Plan
Carey, E. Niel; Marshall, Howard E.
1973-01-01
The article develops from a general discussion of the utilization of community resources in career education to a discussion of a particular program--the McCormick Plan in Baltimore--and other Maryland programs. Suggestions drawn from those programs are offered for identifying and using such resources. (AG)
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2013-06-14
... DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION Surface Transportation Board [Docket No. FD 35725] MCM Rail Services LLC, d/b/a Baltimore Industrial Railroad-- Operation Exemption--Hilco SP Rail, LLC MCM Rail Services LLC, d/b/a Baltimore Industrial Railroad (MCM), a noncarrier, has filed a verified notice of exemption...
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Lerman, Robert I.; Packer, Arnold
2015-01-01
Youth transitions to rewarding careers remain a critical problem for America's current and future workforce. In Baltimore, where only one in five graduates of Baltimore City Public Schools matriculates to a four-year college and the unemployment rate for 16 to 19 year-olds is over 40 percent, opportunities to gain meaningful training and work…
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Incarceration and injection drug use in Baltimore, Maryland.
Genberg, Becky L; Astemborski, Jacquie; Vlahov, David; Kirk, Gregory D; Mehta, Shruti H
2015-07-01
There is limited longitudinal research examining incarceration and subsequent changes in drug use among people who inject drugs (PWID) in the United States. The objective of the current study was to characterize the frequency of incarceration and estimate the association between incarceration and subsequent injection drug use among current and former PWIDs in one US city. ALIVE (AIDS Linked to the Intravenous Experience) is a prospective cohort study of current and former PWIDs, with semi-annual follow-up occurring since 1988. Baltimore, Maryland, USA. A total of 3245 participants with 48 738 study visits were included. Participants enrolled from 1988 to 2012 with a median of 13 follow-up visits per participant (Interquartile range = 7-25). Incarcerations were defined as any self-reported jail or prison stays in the previous 6 months that were ≥7 days or longer. The primary outcome was defined as any self-reported injection drug use in the previous 6 months. At baseline, 29% were female, 90% African American and 33% HIV-positive. Fifty-seven per cent of participants experienced at least one incarceration episode. After adjusting for confounders, there was a positive association between incarceration and subsequent injection drug use [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 1.48, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.37-1.59]; however, stratified analysis showed that the effect was restricted to those who were not injecting at the time of incarceration (AOR = 2.11, 95% CI = 1.88-2.37). In the United States, incarceration of people who had previously stopped injecting drugs appears to be associated with an increased risk of subsequent injecting. © 2015 Society for the Study of Addiction.
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National Marine Fisheries Service Grain Size Data from the Baltimore Canyon Trough
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Grain size analyses produced by Robert Reid of the NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service for the NOAA/BLM Outer Continental Shelf Mid-Atlantic Project, Baltimore...
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Mmari, Kristin; Kalamar, Amanda M; Brahmbhatt, Heena; Venables, Emilie
2016-01-01
The main objective of this paper is to understand the role of the family on the sexual experiences of adolescents from urban, disadvantaged settings in Baltimore and Johannesburg. Data were collected as part of the WAVE study, a global study of disadvantaged youth in five cities. Qualitative data were based on key informant interviews, a Photovoice exercise, community mapping, focus groups and in-depth interviews with adolescents. Quantitative data were gathered from an ACASI survey that was administered to approximately 450-500 adolescents per site. Results from the qualitative data revealed that while parents were viewed as important sources of information for sexual and reproductive health, they were often not present in the adolescents' lives. This lack of parental presence was perceived to result in adolescents feeling an overall lack of adult support and guidance. The impact of parental presence and support on adolescent sexual experience was further examined from the quantitative data and revealed a complex picture. In both Baltimore and Johannesburg, female adolescents who were raised by other relatives were less likely to report having had sex compared to those raised by two biological parents, which was not observed for males. In Johannesburg, female adolescents who were paternal orphans were less likely to have had sex compared to non-orphans; the opposite was true among males. Finally, in both sites, female adolescents who had been exposed to violence were more likely to have had sex compared to those who had not; for males, there was no significant relationship. The study demonstrates the powerful influence of both context and gender for understanding the influences of the family on adolescent sexual behaviors. Programs aiming to reduce adolescent sexual risk behaviors the need to understand the complex influences on risk behaviors in different settings and in particular, the role of mothers and fathers. Prevention strategies need to also understand
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World Geography. The Port of Baltimore Workplace Skills Development Project.
Walker, Sam
This set of learning modules was developed during a project to deliver workplace literacy instruction to individuals employed in the more than 50 businesses related to the activities of the Port of Baltimore. It is intended to accomplish the following objectives: familiarize students with basic concepts of geography; give students knowledge of…
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Menez, Steven; Cheskin, Lawrence; Geller, Gail
2013-01-01
Objective: To determine and compare the perspectives of the general public and health care providers (HCPs) on obesity and its treatment in rural West Virginia (WV) and Baltimore, MD. Method: Surveys were completed in both locations by the general public (WV: "n" = 200; Baltimore: "n" = 171) and HCPs (WV: "n" = 25;…
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Launch of Village Blue Web Application Shares Water Monitoring Data with Baltimore Community
EPA and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) have launched their mobile-friendly web application for Village Blue, a project that provides real-time water quality monitoring data to the Baltimore, Maryland community.
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Pharmacy-level barriers to implementing expedited partner therapy in Baltimore, Maryland.
Qin, Jennifer Z; Diniz, Clarissa P; Coleman, Jenell S
2018-05-01
Addressing record high rates of Chlamydia trachomatis incidence in the United States requires the utilization of effective strategies, such as expedited partner therapy, to reduce reinfection and further transmission. Expedited partner therapy, which can be given as a prescription or medication, is a strategy to treat the sexual partners of index patients diagnosed with a sexually transmitted infection without prior medical evaluation of the partners. There are multiple steps in the prescription-expedited partner therapy cascade, and we sought to identify pharmacy-level barriers to implementing prescription-expedited partner therapy for Chlamydia trachomatis treatment. We used spatial analysis and ArcGIS, a geographic information system, to map and assess geospatial access to pharmacies within Baltimore, MD, neighborhoods with the highest rates of Chlamydia trachomatis (1180.25-4255.31 per 100,000 persons). Expedited partner therapy knowledge and practices were collected via a telephone survey of pharmacists employed at retail pharmacies located in these same neighborhoods. Cost of antibiotic medication in US dollars was collected. Census tracts with the highest Chlamydia trachomatis incidence rates had lower median pharmacy density than other census tracts (26.9 per 100,000 vs 31.4 per 100,000, P barriers to implementing prescription-expedited partner therapy. Although most Baltimore pharmacists were unaware of expedited partner therapy, they were generally receptive to learning about and filling expedited partner therapy prescriptions. This finding suggests the need for wide dissemination of educational material targeted to pharmacists. In areas with limited geographic access to pharmacies, expedited partner therapy strategies that do not depend on partners physically accessing a pharmacy merit consideration. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Integrative approaches to investigating human-natural systems: the Baltimore ecosystem study
Mary L. Cadenasso; Steward T.A. Pickett; Morgan J. Grove; Morgan J. Grove
2006-01-01
This paper presents an overview of the research approaches used to study metropolitan Baltimore (Maryland, USA) as an ecological system. The urban ecosystem is a complex of biophysical, social, and built components, and is studied by an interdisciplinary teamof biological, social, and physical scientists, and urban designers. Ecology ?of? themetropolis is addressed...
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Liverman, James L.
1978-04-01
An allocation of naphtha feedstock up to 2,186,000 barrels per year to Baltimore Gas and Electric Company (BG and E) to operate its synthetic natural gas (SNG) facility is being considered. The allocation would enable BG and E to produce 10,800,000 mcf of SNG during a 180 day period. Operation of the plant at design capacity is expected to result in annual pollution emissions as follows: 626.4 tons of sulfur oxides, 168.5 tons of nitrogen oxides and 21.6 tons of particulate matter. Incremental emissions due to plant operations relative to existing emissions in Baltimore County are less than 1%. All Federal and State air quality standards should be met. Treated effluent is to be discharged into the Patapasco River where the environmental impacts are not expected to be significant. The SNG facility has been designed to be in compliance with all applicable Federal, State and local effluent standards. Water consumption requirements of 335,000 gallons per day are not expected to significantly tax the area's water resources. Sound generated by the SNG facility will be inaudible or imperceptible. All other operational impacts on land use, population, visual quality, roadways, community facilities and services and ecological systems were judged to be minimal. Environmental impacts resulting from various alternatives ranging from full allocation through denial of an allocation are discussed.
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Getting to High School in Baltimore: Student Commuting and Public Transportation
Stein, Marc L.; Grigg, Jeffrey; Cronister, Curt; Chavis, Celeste; Connolly, Faith
2017-01-01
This report is the first publication of a multi-year project examining the relationship between student commutes using public transportation and on-time arrival and absenteeism. This report begins to develop a basic understanding of how students commute to high school in Baltimore with a focus on those using public transportation. The report is…
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Mains, Tyler E; Wilcox, Mark V; Wright, Scott M
2016-01-01
Less than 6% of U.S. medical school applicants are African-American. The lack of diversity among physicians, by race as well as other measures, confers a negative impact on the American healthcare system because underrepresented minority (URM) physicians are more likely to practice in underserved communities and deliver more equitable, culturally competent care. MERIT (Medical Education Resources Initiative for Teens) is a nonprofit organization based in Baltimore, Maryland, USA. MERIT prepares URM high school students for health careers by providing a holistic support system for seven consecutive years. The program model, which utilizes weekly Saturday sessions, summer internships, and longitudinal mentoring, is built on four foundational pillars: (1) Ignite the Fire, (2) Illuminate the Path, (3) Create the Toolkit, and (4) Sustain the Desire. Since 2011, MERIT has supported 51 students in the Baltimore City Public School System. For the past two years, 100% (n = 14) of MERIT seniors enrolled in universities, compared to only 20.2% of Baltimore City students overall. While it is too early to know whether MERIT alumni will realize their goals of becoming healthcare professionals, they are currently excelling in universities and over 75% (n = 17) are still planning to pursue graduate degrees in health-related fields. After piloting an effective program model, MERIT now has three key priorities moving forward: (1) Creating a sustainable and thriving organization, (2) increasing the number of scholars the program supports in Baltimore, and (3) expanding MERIT to other cities.
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2013-08-22
..., will remain open during the time period of the event. There are five additional I-95 interchanges, just... Temporary Closure of I-395 Just South of Conway Street in the City of Baltimore to Vehicular Traffic To... Transportation Authority (MDTA) to temporarily close a portion of I-395 (just south of Conway Street in Baltimore...
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A long view of polluting industry and environmental justice in Baltimore
Christopher G. Boone; Michail Fragkias; Geoffrey L. Buckley; J. Morgan. Grove
2014-01-01
This study examines the density of polluting industry by neighborhoods in Baltimore over the long term, from 1950 to 2010, to determine if high pollution burdens correspond spatially with expected demographic and housing variables predicted in the environmental justice literature. For 1960-1980 we use data on heavy industry from Dun and Bradstreet directories and for...
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Associations of salivary cortisol with cognitive function in the Baltimore memory study.
Lee, Brian K; Glass, Thomas A; McAtee, Matthew J; Wand, Gary S; Bandeen-Roche, Karen; Bolla, Karen I; Schwartz, Brian S
2007-07-01
The stress responses of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis can produce adverse effects on the brain. Previous studies have concluded that an elevated level of cortisol is a risk factor for cognitive dysfunction and decline in aging but have been limited by sex exclusion, restricted cognitive batteries, and small sample sizes. To examine associations among salivary cortisol metrics and cognitive domain scores in an urban adult population. A cross-sectional analysis was conducted using data from a longitudinal study involving 1140 Baltimore, Maryland, residents aged 50 to 70 years. Four salivary cortisol samples were obtained from 967 participants across 1 study visit (before, during, and after cognitive testing as well as at the end of the visit) from which 7 cortisol metrics were created. We examined associations of cortisol metrics with cognitive performance using multiple linear regression. Performance on 20 standard cognitive tests was measured and combined to form summary measures in 7 domains (language, processing speed, eye-hand coordination, executive functioning, verbal memory and learning, visual memory, and visuoconstruction). Higher levels of pretest and mean cortisol as well as the area under the curve of cortisol over the study visit were associated with worse performance (P executive functioning, verbal memory and learning, and visual memory). For instance, an interquartile range increase in the area under the curve was equivalent to a decrease in the language score expected from an increase in 5.6 (95% confidence interval, 4.2-7.1) years of age. Elevated cortisol was associated with poorer cognitive function across a range of domains in this large population-based study. We believe the findings are consistent with the hypothesis that hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis dysregulation may be a risk factor for poorer cognitive performance in older persons.
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The Lagrangian method provides estimates of the chemical and physical evolution of air arriving in the daytime boundary layer at Baltimore. Study results indicate a dominant role for regional transport contributions of those days when sulfate air pollution is highest in Baltimor...
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California Dreams in Southeast Baltimore: Using Technology in a Challenging School Setting.
Slekar, Timothy D.
2000-01-01
Provides an example of how two teachers in the Baltimore (Maryland) City Schools utilized the Internet to help students make a connection with their community. Describes a unit that focuses on the use of Tupac Shakur's rap "California Dream" in order to motivate the students to take pride in their community. (CMK)
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75 FR 31511 - Ideal Federal Savings Bank, Baltimore, MD; Approval of Conversion Application
2010-06-03
... DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY Office of Thrift Supervision [AC-46: OTS No. 08283] Ideal Federal Savings Bank, Baltimore, MD; Approval of Conversion Application Notice is hereby given that on May 24, 2010, the Office of Thrift Supervision approved the application of Ideal Federal Savings Bank...
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77 FR 11434 - Safety Zone; Patapsco River, Northwest and Inner Harbors, Baltimore, MD
2012-02-27
...-AA00 Safety Zone; Patapsco River, Northwest and Inner Harbors, Baltimore, MD AGENCY: Coast Guard, DHS... intended route immediately prior to, during, and following the scheduled towing evolution, vessel traffic... made to the maritime community via marine information broadcasts so mariners may adjust their plans...
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The syphilis elimination project: targeting the Hispanic community of Baltimore city.
Endyke-Doran, Cara; Gonzalez, Rosa Maria; Trujillo, Marangellie; Solera, Angelo; Vigilance, Pierre N; Edwards, Lori A; Groves, Sara L
2007-01-01
The objective of the Syphilis Elimination Project was to decrease the incidence of syphilis in the Hispanic community of Baltimore City through a culturally appropriate health initiative. Both qualitative and quantitative methods were used in the study design. Surveillance data were used to collect testing information. Comparisons at the start and end of the project measured change in individual knowledge about syphilis. Cross-sectional data from interviews with business owners and qualitative comments from outreach workers evaluated perception of program effectiveness. The local health department collected surveillance data. A convenience sample of 63 Hispanic community members, 12 business owners/managers, and 8 outreach workers was utilized throughout the evaluation process. The project was a culturally appropriate approach to health promotion with street and business outreach. Post intervention there was a statistically significant increase in knowledge about syphilis within the Hispanic community and an increase in testing behaviors. The Syphilis Elimination Project was created in response to a marked increase in syphilis in Baltimore among the Hispanic population and a health disparity that existed within the city. It increased community members' knowledge of syphilis and positively influenced testing behaviors.
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Urban community gardeners' knowledge and perceptions of soil contaminant risks.
Kim, Brent F; Poulsen, Melissa N; Margulies, Jared D; Dix, Katie L; Palmer, Anne M; Nachman, Keeve E
2014-01-01
Although urban community gardening can offer health, social, environmental, and economic benefits, these benefits must be weighed against the potential health risks stemming from exposure to contaminants such as heavy metals and organic chemicals that may be present in urban soils. Individuals who garden at or eat food grown in contaminated urban garden sites may be at risk of exposure to such contaminants. Gardeners may be unaware of these risks and how to manage them. We used a mixed quantitative/qualitative research approach to characterize urban community gardeners' knowledge and perceptions of risks related to soil contaminant exposure. We conducted surveys with 70 gardeners from 15 community gardens in Baltimore, Maryland, and semi-structured interviews with 18 key informants knowledgeable about community gardening and soil contamination in Baltimore. We identified a range of factors, challenges, and needs related to Baltimore community gardeners' perceptions of risk related to soil contamination, including low levels of concern and inconsistent levels of knowledge about heavy metal and organic chemical contaminants, barriers to investigating a garden site's history and conducting soil tests, limited knowledge of best practices for reducing exposure, and a need for clear and concise information on how best to prevent and manage soil contamination. Key informants discussed various strategies for developing and disseminating educational materials to gardeners. For some challenges, such as barriers to conducting site history and soil tests, some informants recommended city-wide interventions that bypass the need for gardener knowledge altogether.
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Urban community gardeners' knowledge and perceptions of soil contaminant risks.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Brent F Kim
Full Text Available Although urban community gardening can offer health, social, environmental, and economic benefits, these benefits must be weighed against the potential health risks stemming from exposure to contaminants such as heavy metals and organic chemicals that may be present in urban soils. Individuals who garden at or eat food grown in contaminated urban garden sites may be at risk of exposure to such contaminants. Gardeners may be unaware of these risks and how to manage them. We used a mixed quantitative/qualitative research approach to characterize urban community gardeners' knowledge and perceptions of risks related to soil contaminant exposure. We conducted surveys with 70 gardeners from 15 community gardens in Baltimore, Maryland, and semi-structured interviews with 18 key informants knowledgeable about community gardening and soil contamination in Baltimore. We identified a range of factors, challenges, and needs related to Baltimore community gardeners' perceptions of risk related to soil contamination, including low levels of concern and inconsistent levels of knowledge about heavy metal and organic chemical contaminants, barriers to investigating a garden site's history and conducting soil tests, limited knowledge of best practices for reducing exposure, and a need for clear and concise information on how best to prevent and manage soil contamination. Key informants discussed various strategies for developing and disseminating educational materials to gardeners. For some challenges, such as barriers to conducting site history and soil tests, some informants recommended city-wide interventions that bypass the need for gardener knowledge altogether.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Erin Golden
2010-04-01
Full Text Available Besides its well-established role in nerve cell survival and adaptive plasticity, brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF is also involved in energy homeostasis and cardiovascular regulation. Although BDNF is present in the systemic circulation, it is unknown whether plasma BDNF correlates with circulating markers of dysregulated metabolism and an adverse cardiovascular profile.To determine whether circulating BDNF correlates with indices of metabolic and cardiovascular health, we measured plasma BDNF levels in 496 middle-age and elderly subjects (mean age approximately 70, in the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging. Linear regression analysis revealed that plasma BDNF is associated with risk factors for cardiovascular disease and metabolic syndrome, regardless of age. In females, BDNF was positively correlated with BMI, fat mass, diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, and LDL-cholesterol, and inversely correlated with folate. In males, BDNF was positively correlated with diastolic blood pressure, triglycerides, free thiiodo-thyronine (FT3, and bioavailable testosterone, and inversely correlated with sex-hormone binding globulin, and adiponectin.Plasma BDNF significantly correlates with multiple risk factors for metabolic syndrome and cardiovascular dysfunction. Whether BDNF contributes to the pathogenesis of these disorders or functions in adaptive responses to cellular stress (as occurs in the brain remains to be determined.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jamila K. Stockman
2014-09-01
Full Text Available Background: Women of African descent are disproportionately affected by intimate partner abuse; yet, limited data exist on whether the prevalence varies for women of African descent in the United States and those in the US territories. Objective: In this multisite study, we estimated lifetime and 2-year prevalence of physical, sexual, and psychological intimate partner abuse (IPA among 1,545 women of African descent in the United States and US Virgin Islands (USVI. We also examined how cultural tolerance of physical and/or sexual intimate partner violence (IPV influences abuse. Design: Between 2009 and 2011, we recruited African American and African Caribbean women aged 18–55 from health clinics in Baltimore, MD, and St. Thomas and St. Croix, USVI, into a comparative case-control study. Screened and enrolled women completed an audio computer-assisted self-interview. Screening-based prevalence of IPA and IPV were stratified by study site and associations between tolerance of IPV and abuse experiences were examined by multivariate logistic regression analysis. Results: Most of the 1,545 screened women were young, of low-income, and in a current intimate relationship. Lifetime prevalence of IPA was 45% in St. Thomas, 38% in St. Croix, and 37% in Baltimore. Lifetime prevalence of IPV was 38% in St. Thomas, 28% in St. Croix, and 30% in Baltimore. Past 2-year prevalence of IPV was 32% in St. Thomas, 22% in St. Croix, and 26% in Baltimore. Risk and protective factors for IPV varied by site. Community and personal acceptance of IPV were independently associated with lifetime IPA in Baltimore and St. Thomas. Conclusions: Variance across sites for risk and protective factors emphasizes cultural considerations in sub-populations of women of African descent when addressing IPA and IPV in given settings. Individual-based interventions should be coupled with community/societal interventions to shape attitudes about use of violence in relationships and to
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yesilonis, I.D.; Pouyat, R.V.; Neerchal, N.K.
2008-01-01
We investigated the spatial distribution of heavy metal above-background (anthropic) contents of Cd, Co, Cu, Cr, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb, Ti, V, and Zn in Baltimore City surface soils and related these levels to potential contaminating sources. Composite soil samples (0-10 cm depth) were digested using a nitric and hydrochloric extraction technique. Slightly more than 10% of plots exceeded United States Environmental Protection Agency screening guidelines for Pb. In a principal component analysis, the first component corresponded to Co, Cr, and Fe, which are constituents of local mafic rocks. The second component corresponded to Cu, Pb, and Zn which were significantly higher within than beyond a 100 m buffer of the major roads within the city; furthermore, Pb and Zn were higher in older residential lots. - Spatial distribution of metals in soils of an older US city (Baltimore) was affected by parent material, proximity to major roads, and housing age
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2011-02-17
... DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY Office of Thrift Supervision [AC-58 OTS No. 01292 and H 4762] Fraternity Federal Savings & Loan Association, Baltimore, MD; Approval of Conversion Application Notice is hereby given that on February 10, 2011, the Office of Thrift Supervision approved the application of...
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77 FR 25592 - Safety Zone; Patapsco River, Northwest and Inner Harbors, Baltimore, MD
2012-05-01
... National Technology Transfer and Advancement Act (NTTAA) (15 U.S.C. 272 note) directs agencies to use... historic sloop-of-war USS CONSTELLATION on May 24, 2012. This action is necessary to provide for the safety...-of-war USS CONSTELLATION in Baltimore, Maryland on May 24, 2012. Planned events include a three- hour...
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Contaminant levels and toxicity of sediments and water of Baltimore Harbor and Back River, Maryland
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Logan, D.T.; Jacobs, F.; Mehrotra, N.
1995-01-01
The Patapsco and Back River Watershed drains the Baltimore metropolitan area, Maryland's most heavily industrialized and urbanized region. Due to the intensive development and industrialization of the Baltimore metropolitan area over the past 250 years, high levels of contaminants have been discharged into Baltimore Harbor on the Patapsco River and into the Back River. Pollutants historically discharged include heavy metals, petroleum hydrocarbons, pesticides, cyanide, sewage, other organic chemicals, and nutrients. Sources have included industrial and municipal discharges, sewerage overflows, urban runoff, and leaks and spills from vessels and on-land facilities. The Maryland Department of the Environment undertook this study of ambient conditions as part of a developing strategy to assess and improve conditions in the Chesapeake Bay and its tributaries. Past studies were compiled, evaluated, and synthesized to identify the areas of degraded conditions and contaminants of possible concern. Sediment contaminant levels were assessed using historical sediment chemistry data, Effects Range Low and Median concentrations (ER-L and ER-M) as toxicological benchmarks, and a sum of toxicity units approach for multiple contaminants. Data on toxicity testing and biological monitoring was compared to sediment and water quality data. Fish tissue data were used to examine bioaccumulated chemicals. A computerized Geographical Information System (GIS) was used to manipulate and display complex geographical data. The final identification of areas and chemicals of potential concern relied on a syntheses of these results as well as information on present and past contaminant loadings
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75 FR 51333 - Madison Square Federal Savings Bank, Baltimore, MD; Approval of Conversion Application
2010-08-19
... DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY Office of Thrift Supervision [AC-49: OTS Nos. 08156 and H4736] Madison Square Federal Savings Bank, Baltimore, MD; Approval of Conversion Application Notice is hereby given that on August 12, 2010, the Office of Thrift Supervision approved the application of Madison Square...
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75 FR 41927 - Ideal Federal Savings Bank, Baltimore, Maryland; Notice of Appointment of Receiver
2010-07-19
... DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY Office of Thrift Supervision Ideal Federal Savings Bank, Baltimore... contained in section 5(d)(2) of the Home Owners' Loan Act, the Office of Thrift Supervision has duly appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation as sole Receiver for Ideal Federal Savings Bank...
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DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kerr, DA; Antel, JP; Arnold, DL
2007-01-01
On July 20-22nd 2006, the second International Rare Neuroimmunologic Disorders Symposium was held in Baltimore, Maryland. The purpose of this symposium was to bring together diverse groups interested in immune-mediated disorders of the nervous system. The symposium was not disease-specific but at...
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Garoon, Joshua; Engelman, Michal; Gitlin, Laura; Szanton, Sarah
2016-09-01
Trust is often cited as a necessary predecessor of social engagement, and a public-health good. We question those suppositions through analysis of the life histories of lower-income older adults aging in place in Baltimore. These people desired to continue living independently, but also expressed a complex mix of trust and mistrust in their neighbors, neighborhoods, and broader environments. This was the product of interrelated processes of multilevel physical and social changes over time and space - and, we argue, often featured a "healthy mistrust" that pushed participants to pursue personally meaningful forms of social engagement, whether new or continued. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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SOCIAL STABILITY AND HIV RISK BEHAVIOR: EVALUATING THE ROLE OF ACCUMULATED VULNERABILITY
German, Danielle; Latkin, Carl A.
2011-01-01
This study evaluated a cumulative and syndromic relationship among commonly co-occurring vulnerabilites (homelessness, incarceration, low-income, residential transition) in association with HIV-related risk behaviors among 635 low-income women in Baltimore. Analysis included descriptive statistics, logistic regression, latent class analysis and latent class regression. Both methods of assessing multidimensional instability showed significant associations with risk indicators. Risk of multiple partners, sex exchange, and drug use decreased significantly with each additional domain. Higher stability class membership (77%) was associated with decreased likelihood of multiple partners, exchange partners, recent drug use, and recent STI. Multidimensional social vulnerabilities were cumulatively and synergistically linked to HIV risk behavior. Independent instability measures may miss important contextual determinants of risk. Social stability offers a useful framework to understand the synergy of social vulnerabilities that shape sexual risk behavior. Social policies and programs aiming to enhance housing and overall social stability are likely to be beneficial for HIV prevention. PMID:21259043
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Healthcare Provider Contact and Pre-exposure Prophylaxis in Baltimore Men Who Have Sex With Men
Raifman, Julia R.G.; Flynn, Colin; German, Danielle
2018-01-01
Introduction Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) safely and effectively prevents HIV in populations at high risk, including men who have sex with men (MSM). PrEP scale-up depends upon primary care providers and community-based organizations (CBOs) sharing PrEP information. This study aimed to determine whether healthcare provider or CBO contact was associated with PrEP awareness among Baltimore MSM. Methods This study used 2014 Baltimore MSM National HIV Behavioral Surveillance data, which included data on health care, HIV and sexually transmitted infection testing, and receipt of condoms from CBOs. In 2015, associations were estimated between healthcare contacts and PrEP awareness through logistic regression models controlling for age, race, and education and clustering by venue. Comparative analyses were conducted with HIV testing as outcome. Results There were 401 HIV-negative participants, of whom 168 (42%) were aware of PrEP. Visiting a healthcare provider in the past 12 months, receiving an HIV test from a provider, and having a sexually transmitted infection test in the past 12 months were not significantly associated with PrEP awareness. PrEP awareness was associated with being out to a healthcare provider (OR = 2.97, 95% CI=1.78, 4.96, p<0.001); being tested for HIV (OR=1.50, 95% CI = 1.06, 2.13, p = 0.023); and receiving condoms from an HIV/AIDS CBO (OR = 2.59, 95% CI = 1.43, 4.64, p = 0.001). By contrast, HIV testing was significantly associated with most forms of healthcare contact. Conclusions PrEP awareness is not associated with most forms of healthcare contact, highlighting the need for guidelines and trainings to support provider discussion of PrEP with MSM. PMID:27662698
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Association of Walkability With Obesity in Baltimore City, Maryland
Gittelsohn, Joel; Zonderman, Alan B.; Evans, Michele K.; Gary-Webb, Tiffany L.
2011-01-01
Objectives. To investigate the association between walkability and obesity, we studied adults residing in Baltimore City, Maryland, in neighborhoods of varying racial and socioeconomic composition. Methods. We conducted a cross-sectional study of 3493 participants from the study Healthy Aging in Neighborhoods of Diversity across the Life Span. We used the Pedestrian Environment Data Scan to measure neighborhood walkability in 34 neighborhoods of diverse racial and socioeconomic composition in which the study participants lived. Confirmatory factor analysis was used to determine walkability scores. Multilevel modeling was used to determine prevalence ratios for the association between walkability and obesity. Results. Among individuals living in predominately White and high-socioeconomic status (SES) neighborhoods, residing in highly walkable neighborhoods was associated with a lower prevalence of obesity when compared with individuals living in poorly walkable neighborhoods, after adjusting for individual-level demographic variables (prevalence ratio–[PR] = 0.58; P = walkability and obesity for individuals living in low-SES neighborhoods was not significant after accounting for main mode of transportation (PR = 0.85; P = .060). Conclusions. Future research is needed to determine how differences in associations by neighborhood characteristics may contribute to racial disparities in obesity. PMID:21164099
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Nitrogen input from residential lawn care practices in suburban watersheds in Baltimore county, MD
Neely L. Law; Lawrence E. Band; J. Morgan. Grove
2004-01-01
A residential lawn care survey was conducted as part of the Baltimore Ecosystem Study, a Long-term Ecological Research project funded by the National Science Foundation and collaborating agencies, to estimate the nitrogen input to urban watersheds from lawn care practices. The variability in the fertilizer N application rates and the factors affecting the application...
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Policing the Void: Recreation, Social Inclusion and the Baltimore Police Athletic League
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jacob J. Bustad
2017-06-01
Full Text Available In this article, we explore the relationship between public recreation policy and planning and the transformation of urban governance in the context of the Police Athletic League centers in Baltimore, Maryland. In light of contemporary discussions of the role of youth programs for sport and physical activity within post-industrial cities, the origination, development, and eventual demise of Baltimore’s network of Police Activity League centers is an instructive, if disheartening, saga. It illustrates the social and political rationales mobilized in justifying recreation policy and programming, the framing of sport and physical activity as preventative measures towards crime and juvenile delinquency, and the precarity of such initiatives given the efficiency-driven orthodoxies of neoliberal urban entrepreneurialism (Harvey, 1989. This analysis emphasizes how the PAL centers were designed to ‘fill the void’ left by a declining system of public recreation, thereby providing an example of a recreation program as part of the “social problems industry” (Pitter & Andrews 1997.
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Morgan Grove; Laura Ogden; Steward Pickett; Chris Boone; Geoff Buckley; Dexter H. Locke; Charlie Lord; Billy Hall
2018-01-01
Legacies of social and environmental injustices can leave an imprint on the present and constrain transitions for more sustainable futures. In this article, we ask this question: What is the relationship of environmental inequality and histories of segregation? The answer for Baltimore is complex, where past practices of de jure and de facto segregation have created...
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Jennings, Jacky M; Reilly, Meredith L; Perin, Jamie; Schumacher, Christina; Sharma, Megha; Safi, Amelia Greiner; Fields, Errol L; Muvva, Ravikiran; Nganga-Good, Carolyn; Chaulk, Patrick
2015-10-01
Sex partner meeting places may be important locales to access men who have sex with men (MSM) and implement targeted HIV control strategies. These locales may change over time, but temporal evaluations have not been performed. The objectives of this study were to describe the frequency of report of MSM sex partner meeting places over time and to compare frequently reported meeting places in the past 5 years and past year among newly HIV-diagnosed MSM in Baltimore City, Maryland. Public health HIV surveillance data including partner services information were obtained for this study from the Baltimore City Health Department from May 2009 to June 2014. A total of 869 sex partner meeting places were reported, including 306 unique places. Bars/clubs (31%) and Internet-based sites (38%) were the most frequently reported meeting place types. Over the 5-year period, the percentage of bars/clubs decreased over time and the percentage of Internet-based sites increased over time. Among bars/clubs, 4 of 5 of those most frequently reported in the past 5 years were also most frequently reported in the most recent year. Among Internet-based sites, 3 of 5 of those most frequently reported in the past 5 years were also in the top 5 most frequently reported in the past year. This study provides a richer understanding of sex partner meeting places reported by MSM over time and information to health departments on types of places to access a population at high risk for HIV transmission.
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Engdahl, Lora
2009-01-01
In the Baltimore region, a successful housing mobility program is providing families living in very disadvantaged inner city communities with a new home and a chance for a new life. Minority voucher holders in the federal Housing Choice Voucher Program (formerly titled Section 8) have often been limited to living in "voucher submarkets"…
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Monica Lipscomb Smith; Weiqi Zhou; Mary Cadenasso; J. Morgan Grove; Lawrence. Band
2010-01-01
We compared the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) 2001 land cover, impervious, and canopy data products to land cover data derived from 0.6-m resolution three-band digital imagery and ancillary data. We conducted this comparison at the 1 km2, 9 km2, and gauged watershed scales within the Baltimore Ecosystem Study to...
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Smith, Katherine Clegg; Bone, Lee; Clay, Eric A; Owings, Kerry; Thames, Sean; Stillman, Frances
2009-01-01
Young adults are generally overlooked in tobacco control initiatives, even though they are critical to sustained success. African American young adults who are not in higher education or working are particularly vulnerable to harmful tobacco use, given high smoking rates and limited access to cessation services. Guided by community-based participatory research (CBPR) principles, we sought to identify program and community-level strategies to reduce tobacco use among African American young adults in Baltimore. We describe the challenges and opportunities for integrating effective tobacco control into community-based education and job training programs for unemployed young adults. As part of a longstanding community-research partnership in Baltimore, we conducted fourteen semistructured key informant interviews with leaders from city government and education and job training programs for young adults. The research design, data collection, analysis, and dissemination all included dialogue between and active contribution by both research and community partners. Interview data were structured into opportunities (mindset for change and desire for bonds with a trusted adult), challenges (culture of fatalism, tobacco as a stress reliever, and culture of tobacco use among young adults), and possible tobacco control solutions (tobacco education designed with and for program staff and participants and integration of tobacco issues into holistic program goals and policies). The emergent themes enhance our understanding of how tobacco is situated in the lives of unemployed young adults and the potential for building sustainable, community-based public health solutions.
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Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease as an independent risk factor for cardiovascular morbidity
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Joseph Finkelstein
2009-09-01
Full Text Available Joseph Finkelstein1, Eunme Cha1, Steven M Scharf 21Welch Center for Prevention, Epidemiology and Clinical Research, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA; 2Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine at the Department of Medicine, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USARationale: Recent studies described association between chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD and increased risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD. In their analysis none of these studies accounted for sociodemographic factors, health behaviors, and patient comorbidities simultaneously.Objective: To study whether COPD diagnosis is an independent risk factor for CVD. Methods: Subjects aged 40 years and older (N = 18,342 from the sample adult file of the 2002 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS were included in the analysis. Chi-squared tests and odds ratios (OR were utilized to compare the data. Multiple logistic regression was employed to analyze the association between COPD and CVD with simultaneous control for sociodemographic factors (age, gender, race, marital status, education, income, health behaviors (tobacco use, alcohol consumption, physical activity, and patient comorbidities (diabetes, hypertension, high cholesterol, and obesity. The analysis employed NHIS sampling weights to generate data representative of the entire US population.Results: The COPD population had increased prevalence of CVD (56.5% vs 25.6%; P < 0.0001. Adjusted logistic regression showed that COPD patients (N = 958 were at higher risk of having coronary heart disease (OR = 2.0, 95% CI: 1.5–2.5, angina (OR = 2.1, 95% CI: 1.6–2.7, myocardial infarction (OR = 2.2, 95% CI: 1.7–2.8, stroke (OR = 1.5, 95% CI: 1.1–2.1, congestive heart failure (OR = 3.9, 95% CI: 2.8–5.5, poor circulation in lower extremities (OR = 2.5, 95% CI: 2.0–3.0, and arrhythmia (OR = 2.4, 95% CI: 2.0–2.8. Overall, the presence of COPD increased the odds of having CVD by a factor of
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Information security risk analysis
Peltier, Thomas R
2001-01-01
Effective Risk AnalysisQualitative Risk AnalysisValue AnalysisOther Qualitative MethodsFacilitated Risk Analysis Process (FRAP)Other Uses of Qualitative Risk AnalysisCase StudyAppendix A: QuestionnaireAppendix B: Facilitated Risk Analysis Process FormsAppendix C: Business Impact Analysis FormsAppendix D: Sample of ReportAppendix E: Threat DefinitionsAppendix F: Other Risk Analysis OpinionsIndex
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Steward T.A. Pickett; Mary L. Cadenasso; J. Morgan Grove; Peter M. Groffman; Lawrence E. Band; Christopher G. Boone; William R., Jr. Burch; Susan B. Grimmond; John Hom; Jennifer C. Jenkins; Neely L. Law; Charles H. Nilon; Richard V. Pouyat; Katalin Szlavecz; Paige S. Warren; Matthew A. Wilson
2008-01-01
The emerging discipline of urban ecology is shifting focus from ecological processes embedded within cities to integrative studies of large urban areas as biophysical-social complexes. Yet this discipline lacks a theory. Results from the Baltimore Ecosystem Study, part of the Long Term Ecological Research Network, expose new assumptions and test existing assumptions...
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Brooke, S.D.; Watts, M.W.; Heil, A.D.; Rhode, M.; Mienis, F.; Duineveld, G.C.A.; Davies, A.J.; Ross, S.W.
2017-01-01
A multi-disciplinary study of two major submarine canyons, Baltimore Canyon and Norfolk Canyon, off the US mid-Atlantic coast focused on the ecology and biology of canyon habitats, particularly those supporting deep-sea corals. Historical data on deep-sea corals from these canyons were sparse with
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2011 Information Systems Summit 2 Held in Baltimore, Maryland on April 4-6, 2011
2011-04-04
SECURE AGILE DEVELOPMENT · Mr. Jeff Payne, CEO and Founder, Coveros, Inc. LEAN AND KANBAN · Mr. Mike Cox, Senior Consultant, Net...Maryland Suite: Annapolis LEAN AND KANBAN Mr. Mike Cox, Senior Consultant, Net Objectives TRACK B Maryland Suite: Baltimore 4:15 pm - 5:15 pm THANK...Innovation to Transform Army Intel 14 Agile © copyright 2011. Net Objectives, Inc. Lean and Kanban Michael Cox Vice President and Senior
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Schempf, Ashley; Strobino, Donna; O'Campo, Patricia
2009-01-01
Neighborhood characteristics have been proposed to influence birth outcomes through psychosocial and behavioral pathways, yet empirical evidence is lacking. Using data from an urban, low-income sample, this study examined the impact of the neighborhood environment on birthweight and evaluated mediation by psychosocial and behavioral factors. The sample included 726 women who delivered a live birth at Johns Hopkins Hospital in Baltimore, Maryland, USA between 1995 and 1996. Census-tract data were used to create a principal component index of neighborhood risk based on racial and economic stratification (% Black, % poverty), social disorder (violent crime rate), and physical deterioration (% boarded-up housing) (alpha=0.82). Information on sociodemographic, psychosocial, and behavioral factors was gathered from a postpartum interview and medical records. Random intercept multilevel models were used to estimate neighborhood effects and assess potential mediation. Controlling for sociodemographic characteristics, a standard deviation increase in neighborhood risk conferred a 76g birthweight decrement. This represents an approximate 300g difference between the best and worst neighborhoods. Although stress (daily hassles), perceived locus-of-control, and social support were related to birthweight, their adjustment reduced the neighborhood coefficient by only 12%. In contrast, the neighborhood effect was reduced by an additional 30% and was no longer statistically significant after adjustment for the behavioral factors of smoking, drug use, and delayed prenatal care. These findings suggest that neighborhood factors may influence birthweight by shaping maternal behavioral risks. Thus, neighborhood level interventions should be considered to address multiple maternal and infant health risks. Future studies should examine more direct measures of neighborhood stress, such as perceived neighborhood disorder, and evaluate alternative mechanisms by which neighborhood factors
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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data set contains analytical data from samples acquired from the Baltimore Canyon (Mid-Atlantic) area of the Outer Continental Shelf, U.S. East Coast, by the...
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Análisis de Clima Organizacional de Baltimore Spice C.A.S.A.
Wong Carranza, Henry Paul
2004-01-01
Tesis de maestría -- Universidad de Costa Rica. Posgrado en Administración y Dirección de Empresas. Maestría Profesional en Administración y Dirección de Empresas con énfasis en Gerencia, 2004 El objetivo general del trabajo es realizar un diagnóstico de los elementos que inciden e impactan negativamente en el desempeño del clima organizacional de Baltimore Spice C.A.S.A., que se ven reflejados directa e indirectamente en el rendimiento de los colaboradores en el nivel operativo. La organi...
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Niehaus, F.
1988-01-01
In this paper, the risks of various energy systems are discussed considering severe accidents analysis, particularly the probabilistic safety analysis, and probabilistic safety criteria, and the applications of these criteria and analysis. The comparative risk analysis has demonstrated that the largest source of risk in every society is from daily small accidents. Nevertheless, we have to be more concerned about severe accidents. The comparative risk analysis of five different energy systems (coal, oil, gas, LWR and STEC (Solar)) for the public has shown that the main sources of risks are coal and oil. The latest comparative risk study of various energy has been conducted in the USA and has revealed that the number of victims from coal is 42 as many than victims from nuclear. A study for severe accidents from hydro-dams in United States has estimated the probability of dam failures at 1 in 10,000 years and the number of victims between 11,000 and 260,000. The average occupational risk from coal is one fatal accident in 1,000 workers/year. The probabilistic safety analysis is a method that can be used to assess nuclear energy risks, and to analyze the severe accidents, and to model all possible accident sequences and consequences. The 'Fault tree' analysis is used to know the probability of failure of the different systems at each point of accident sequences and to calculate the probability of risks. After calculating the probability of failure, the criteria for judging the numerical results have to be developed, that is the quantitative and qualitative goals. To achieve these goals, several systems have been devised by various countries members of AIEA. The probabilistic safety ana-lysis method has been developed by establishing a computer program permit-ting to know different categories of safety related information. 19 tabs. (author)
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1976-08-01
varied, encom- passing tours of duty on the Savannah River, Georgia; Charleston harbor, South Carolina; Fort Jefferson, Tortugas , Florida; and Fort...7bLtr, Craighill to J. Carey Coale, Chmn, Committee on River and Harbor Approaches, Baltimore Bd of Trade, 21 Mar 1883. Rec Gp 77, entry 969, vo!. VI
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Aven, Terje
2012-01-01
Foundations of Risk Analysis presents the issues core to risk analysis - understanding what risk means, expressing risk, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real problems. The author provides the readers with the knowledge and basic thinking they require to successfully manage risk and uncertainty to support decision making. This updated edition reflects recent developments on risk and uncertainty concepts, representations and treatment. New material in Foundations of Risk Analysis includes:An up to date presentation of how to understand, define and
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Probabilistic risk analysis and terrorism risk.
Ezell, Barry Charles; Bennett, Steven P; von Winterfeldt, Detlof; Sokolowski, John; Collins, Andrew J
2010-04-01
Since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and the subsequent establishment of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), considerable efforts have been made to estimate the risks of terrorism and the cost effectiveness of security policies to reduce these risks. DHS, industry, and the academic risk analysis communities have all invested heavily in the development of tools and approaches that can assist decisionmakers in effectively allocating limited resources across the vast array of potential investments that could mitigate risks from terrorism and other threats to the homeland. Decisionmakers demand models, analyses, and decision support that are useful for this task and based on the state of the art. Since terrorism risk analysis is new, no single method is likely to meet this challenge. In this article we explore a number of existing and potential approaches for terrorism risk analysis, focusing particularly on recent discussions regarding the applicability of probabilistic and decision analytic approaches to bioterrorism risks and the Bioterrorism Risk Assessment methodology used by the DHS and criticized by the National Academies and others.
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Seidell, J C; Muller, D C; Sorkin, J D; Andres, R.
The authors followed 775 men (aged 18-98 years) participating in the Baltimore Longitudinal Study in Aging for an average of ten years. Resting metabolic rate and fasting respiratory exchange ratio (RER) were measured by indirect calorimetry on their first visit and related to subsequent weight
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MATHEMATICAL RISK ANALYSIS: VIA NICHOLAS RISK MODEL AND BAYESIAN ANALYSIS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Anass BAYAGA
2010-07-01
Full Text Available The objective of this second part of a two-phased study was to explorethe predictive power of quantitative risk analysis (QRA method andprocess within Higher Education Institution (HEI. The method and process investigated the use impact analysis via Nicholas risk model and Bayesian analysis, with a sample of hundred (100 risk analysts in a historically black South African University in the greater Eastern Cape Province.The first findings supported and confirmed previous literature (KingIII report, 2009: Nicholas and Steyn, 2008: Stoney, 2007: COSA, 2004 that there was a direct relationship between risk factor, its likelihood and impact, certiris paribus. The second finding in relation to either controlling the likelihood or the impact of occurrence of risk (Nicholas risk model was that to have a brighter risk reward, it was important to control the likelihood ofoccurrence of risks as compared with its impact so to have a direct effect on entire University. On the Bayesian analysis, thus third finding, the impact of risk should be predicted along three aspects. These aspects included the human impact (decisions made, the property impact (students and infrastructural based and the business impact. Lastly, the study revealed that although in most business cases, where as business cycles considerably vary dependingon the industry and or the institution, this study revealed that, most impacts in HEI (University was within the period of one academic.The recommendation was that application of quantitative risk analysisshould be related to current legislative framework that affects HEI.
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Trends in low birth weight infants and changes in Baltimore's childbearing population, 1972–77
Strobino, Donna M.
1982-01-01
Linked birth and death records provided the population for a study of trends in low birth weight (LBW) rates in Baltimore between 1972 and 1977 and of the effect of changes in the characteristics of the childbearing population on these trends. The impact of shifts in the birth weight distribution on neonatal mortality rates was also investigated. Trends were analyzed for unstandardized LBW rates as well as for rates standardized on the distributions of maternal age, education, gravidity, prio...
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Imbriale, Ryan; Schiner, Nicholas; Elmendorf, Douglas
2017-01-01
Baltimore County Public Schools is in the midst of a transformation of teaching and learning; the goal being the creation of student-centered classrooms supported by a one-to-one computer for every student. This transformation, known as Students and Teachers Accessing Tomorrow, began in 2014 and is now in its third academic year. We present this…
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Majcher, Emily H.; Woytowitz, Ellen L.; Reisinger, Alexander J.; Groffman, Peter M.
2018-03-30
Factors affecting water-quality trends in urban streams are not well understood, despite current regulatory requirements and considerable ongoing investments in gray and green infrastructure. To address this gap, long-term water-quality trends and factors affecting these trends were examined in the Gwynns Falls, Maryland, watershed during 1998–2016 in cooperation with Blue Water Baltimore. Data on water-quality constituents and potential factors of influence were obtained from multiple sources and compiled for analysis, with a focus on data collected as part of the National Science Foundation funded Long-Term Ecological Research project, the Baltimore Ecosystem Study.Variability in climate (specifically, precipitation) and land cover can overwhelm actions taken to improve water quality and can present challenges for meeting regulatory goals. Analysis of land cover during 2001–11 in the Gwynns Falls watershed indicated minimal change during the study time frame; therefore, land-cover change is likely not a factor affecting trends in water quality. However, a modest increase in annual precipitation and a significant increase in winter precipitation were apparent in the region. A higher proportion of runoff producing storms was observed in the winter and a lower proportion in the summer, indicating that climate change may affect water quality in the watershed. The increase in precipitation was not reflected in annual or seasonal trends of streamflow in the watershed. Nonetheless, these precipitation changes may exacerbate the inflow and infiltration of water to gray infrastructure and reduce the effectiveness of green infrastructure. For streamflow and most water-quality constituents examined, no discernable trends were noted over the timeframe examined. Despite the increases in precipitation, no trends were observed for annual or seasonal discharge at the various sites within the study area. In some locations, nitrate, phosphate, and total nitrogen show downward
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Schempf, Ashley; Strobino, Donna; O’Campo, Patricia
2008-01-01
Neighborhood characteristics have been proposed to influence birth outcomes through psychosocial and behavioral pathways, yet empirical evidence is lacking. Using data from an urban, low-income sample, this study examined the impact of the neighborhood environment on birthweight and evaluated mediation by psychosocial and behavioral factors. The sample included 726 women who delivered a live birth at Johns Hopkins Hospital in Baltimore, Maryland USA between 1995 and 1996. Census tract data we...
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Mac Iver, Martha Abele; Messel, Matthew
2012-01-01
This study of high school outcomes in the Baltimore City Public Schools builds on substantial prior research on the early warning indicators of dropping out. It sought to investigate whether the same variables that predicted a non-graduation outcome in other urban districts--attendance, behavior problems, and course failure--were also significant…
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Hansson, Sven Ove; Aven, Terje
2014-07-01
This article discusses to what extent risk analysis is scientific in view of a set of commonly used definitions and criteria. We consider scientific knowledge to be characterized by its subject matter, its success in developing the best available knowledge in its fields of study, and the epistemic norms and values that guide scientific investigations. We proceed to assess the field of risk analysis according to these criteria. For this purpose, we use a model for risk analysis in which science is used as a base for decision making on risks, which covers the five elements evidence, knowledge base, broad risk evaluation, managerial review and judgment, and the decision; and that relates these elements to the domains experts and decisionmakers, and to the domains fact-based or value-based. We conclude that risk analysis is a scientific field of study, when understood as consisting primarily of (i) knowledge about risk-related phenomena, processes, events, etc., and (ii) concepts, theories, frameworks, approaches, principles, methods and models to understand, assess, characterize, communicate, and manage risk, in general and for specific applications (the instrumental part). © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.
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Little, E; Biehler, D; Leisnham, P T; Jordan, R; Wilson, S; LaDeau, S L
2017-09-01
Social, ecological, and climatic factors interact creating a heterogeneous matrix that determines the spatiotemporal distribution of mosquitoes and human risks of exposure to the diseases they transmit. We explore linkages between the social and institutional processes behind residential abandonment, urban ecology, and the interactions of socio-ecological processes with abiotic drivers of mosquito production. Specifically, we test the relative roles of infrastructure degradation and vegetation for explaining the presence of Aedes albopictus Skuse 1894 to better predict spatial heterogeneity in mosquito exposure risk within urban environments. We further examine how precipitation interacts with these socially underpinned biophysical variables. We use a hierarchical statistical modeling approach to assess how environmental and climatic conditions over 3 years influence mosquito ecology across a socioeconomic gradient in Baltimore, MD. We show that decaying infrastructure and vegetation are important determinants of Ae. albopictus infestation. We demonstrate that both precipitation and vegetation influence mosquito production in ways that are mediated by the level of infrastructural decay on a given block. Mosquitoes were more common on blocks with greater abandonment, but when precipitation was low, mosquitoes were more likely to be found in higher-income neighborhoods with managed container habitat. Likewise, although increased vegetation was a negative predictor of mosquito infestation, more vegetation on blocks with high abandonment was associated with the largest mosquito populations. These findings indicate that fine spatial scale modeling of mosquito habitat within urban areas is needed to more accurately target vector control. © The Authors 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.
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Responding to the Effects of Extreme Heat: Baltimore City's Code Red Program.
Martin, Jennifer L
2016-01-01
Heat response plans are becoming increasingly more common as US cities prepare for heat waves and other effects of climate change. Standard elements of heat response plans exist, but plans vary depending on geographic location and distribution of vulnerable populations. Because heat events vary over time and affect populations differently based on vulnerability, it is difficult to compare heat response plans and evaluate responses to heat events. This article provides an overview of the Baltimore City heat response plan, the Code Red program, and discusses the city's response to the 2012 Ohio Valley/Mid Atlantic Derecho, a complex heat event. Challenges with and strategies for evaluating the program are reviewed and shared.
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Environmental modeling and health risk analysis (ACTS/RISK)
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Aral, M. M
2010-01-01
... presents a review of the topics of exposure and health risk analysis. The Analytical Contaminant Transport Analysis System (ACTS) and Health RISK Analysis (RISK) software tools are an integral part of the book and provide computational platforms for all the models discussed herein. The most recent versions of these two softwa...
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Development of a record retention and retrieval system for the Baltimore Gas and Electric Company
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hoffman, H.L.
1976-01-01
The records associated with the design and construction of a nuclear power plant have increased in both volume and complexity. Baltimore Gas and Electric Company chose to retain and make available these records by using microfilm and a computer-generated index system. The technique of filming, data assembly, and controlled distribution of this material to various locations within the Company was developed and implemented. The index system has been designed to locate information and to provide a basis for searches of the data base for special information
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ProRisk : risk analysis instrument : developed for William properties
van Doorn, W.H.W.; Egeberg, Ingrid; Hendrickx, Kristoff; Kahramaner, Y.; Masseur, B.; Waijers, Koen; Weglicka, K.A.
2005-01-01
This report presents a Risk Analysis Instrument developed for William Properties. Based on the analysis, it appears that the practice of Risk Analysis exists within the organization, yet rather implicit. The Risk Analysis Instrument comes with a package of four components: an activity diagram, a
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Thompson, W.A. Jr.
1979-11-01
This paper briefly describes WASH 1400 and the Lewis report. It attempts to define basic concepts such as risk and risk analysis, common mode failure, and rare event. Several probabilistic models which go beyond the WASH 1400 methodology are introduced; the common characteristic of these models is that they recognize explicitly that risk analysis is time dependent whereas WASH 1400 takes a per demand failure rate approach which obscures the important fact that accidents are time related. Further, the presentation of a realistic risk analysis should recognize that there are various risks which compete with one another for the lives of the individuals at risk. A way of doing this is suggested
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Ibe, Chidinma A; Basu, Lopa; Gooden, Rachel; Syed, Shamsuzzoha B; Dadwal, Viva; Bone, Lee R; Ephraim, Patti L; Weston, Christine M; Wu, Albert W
2018-02-09
Reverse Innovation has been endorsed as a vehicle for promoting bidirectional learning and information flow between low- and middle-income countries and high-income countries, with the aim of tackling common unmet needs. One such need, which traverses international boundaries, is the development of strategies to initiate and sustain community engagement in health care delivery systems. In this commentary, we discuss the Baltimore "Community-based Organizations Neighborhood Network: Enhancing Capacity Together" Study. This randomized controlled trial evaluated whether or not a community engagement strategy, developed to address patient safety in low- and middle-income countries throughout sub-Saharan Africa, could be successfully applied to create and implement strategies that would link community-based organizations to a local health care system in Baltimore, a city in the United States. Specifically, we explore the trial's activation of community knowledge brokers as the conduit through which community engagement, and innovation production, was achieved. Cultivating community knowledge brokers holds promise as a vehicle for advancing global innovation in the context of health care delivery systems. As such, further efforts to discern the ways in which they may promote the development and dissemination of innovations in health care systems is warranted. Trial Registration Number: NCT02222909 . Trial Register Name: Reverse Innovation and Patient Engagement to Improve Quality of Care and Patient Outcomes (CONNECT). Date of Trial's Registration: August 22, 2014.
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Donovan, Mitchell; Miller, Andrew; Baker, Matthew; Gellis, Allen
2015-04-01
Disparity between watershed erosion rates and downstream sediment delivery has remained an important theme in geomorphology for many decades, with the role of floodplains in sediment storage as a common focus. In the Piedmont Province of the eastern USA, upland deforestation and agricultural land use following European settlement led to accumulation of thick packages of overbank sediment in valley bottoms, commonly referred to as legacy deposits. Previous authors have argued that legacy deposits represent a potentially important source of modern sediment loads following remobilization by lateral migration and progressive channel widening. This paper seeks to quantify (1) rates of sediment remobilization from Baltimore County floodplains by channel migration and bank erosion, (2) proportions of streambank sediment derived from legacy deposits, and (3) potential contribution of net streambank erosion and legacy sediments to downstream sediment yield within the Mid-Atlantic Piedmont. We calculated measurable gross erosion and deposition rates within the fluvial corridor along 40 valley segments from 18 watersheds with drainage areas between 0.18 and 155 km2 in Baltimore County, Maryland. We compared stream channel and floodplain morphology from lidar-based digital elevation data collected in 2005 with channel positions recorded on 1:2400 scale topographic maps from 1959-1961 in order to quantify 44-46 years of channel change. Sediment bulk density and particle size distributions were characterized from streambank and channel deposit samples and used for volume to mass conversions and for comparison with other sediment sources. Average annual lateral migration rates ranged from 0.04 to 0.19 m/y, which represented an annual migration of 2.5% (0.9-4.4%) channel width across all study segments, suggesting that channel dimensions may be used as reasonable predictors of bank erosion rates. Gross bank erosion rates varied from 43 to 310 Mg/km/y (median = 114) and were
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Koutrakis, Petros; Suh, Helen H; Sarnat, Jeremy A; Brown, Kathleen Ward; Coull, Brent A; Schwartz, Joel
2005-12-01
Personal exposures to particulate and gaseous pollutants and corresponding ambient concentrations were measured for 56 subjects living in Baltimore, Maryland, and 43 subjects living in Boston, Massachusetts. The 3 Baltimore cohorts consisted of 20 healthy older adults (seniors), 21 children, and 15 individuals with physician-diagnosed chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD*). The 2 Boston cohorts were 20 healthy seniors and 23 children. All children were 9 to 13 years of age; seniors were 65 years of age or older; and the COPD participants had moderate to severe physician-diagnosed COPD. Personal exposures to particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters less than 2.5 microm (PM2.5), sulfate (SO(4)2-), elemental carbon (EC), ozone (03), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and sulfur dioxide (SO2) were measured simultaneously for 24 hours/day. All subjects were monitored for 8 to 12 consecutive days. The primary objectives of this study were (1) to characterize the personal particulate and gaseous exposures for individuals sensitive to PM health effects and (2) to assess the appropriateness of exposure assessment strategies for use in PM epidemiologic studies. Personal exposures to multiple pollutants and ambient concentrations were measured for subjects from each cohort from each location. Pollutant data were analyzed using correlation and mixed-model regression analyses. In Baltimore, personal PM2.5 exposures tended to be comparable to (and frequently lower than) corresponding ambient concentrations; in Boston, the personal exposures were frequently higher. Overall, personal exposures to the gaseous pollutants, especially O3 and SO2, were considerably lower than corresponding ambient concentrations because of the lack of indoor sources for these gases and their high removal rate on indoor surfaces. Further, the impact of ambient particles on personal exposure (the infiltration factor) and differences in infiltration factor by city, season, and cohort were investigated
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Preyssl, C.
1986-01-01
Safety analysis provides the only tool for evaluation and quantification of rare or hypothetical events leading to system failure. So far probability theory has been used for the fault- and event-tree methodology. The phenomenon of uncertainties constitutes an important aspect in risk analysis. Uncertainties can be classified as originating from 'randomness' or 'fuzziness'. Probability theory addresses randomness only. The use of 'fuzzy set theory' makes it possible to include both types of uncertainty in the mathematical model of risk analysis. Thus the 'fuzzy fault tree' is expressed in 'possibilistic' terms implying a range of simplifications and improvements. 'Human failure' and 'conditionality' can be treated correctly. Only minimum-maximum relations are used to combine the possibility distributions of events. Various event-classifications facilitate the interpretation of the results. The method is demonstrated by application to a TRIGA-research reactor. Uncertainty as an implicit part of 'fuzzy risk' can be quantified explicitly using an 'uncertainty measure'. Based on this the 'degree of relative compliance' with a quantizative safety goal can be defined for a particular risk. The introduction of 'weighting functionals' guarantees the consideration of the importances attached to different parts of the risk exceeding or complying with the standard. The comparison of two reference systems is demonstrated in a case study. It is concluded that any application of the 'fuzzy risk analysis' has to be free of any hypostatization when reducing subjective to objective information. (Author)
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Hunter, Kyle; Park, Ju Nyeong; Allen, Sean T; Chaulk, Patrick; Frost, Taeko; Weir, Brian W; Sherman, Susan G
2018-04-13
The spaces in which drug use occurs constitutes a key aspect of the "risk environment" of people who inject drugs (PWID). We aimed to add nuance to the characterization of "safe" and "unsafe" spaces in PWID's environments to further understand how these spaces amplify the risk of morbidities associated with injection drug use. PWID were recruited through the Baltimore City syringe service program and through peer referral. Participants completed a socio-behavioral survey. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify associations between utilization of public, semi-public and private spaces with arrest, non-fatal overdose, and receptive syringe sharing. The sample of PWID (N = 283) was mostly 45 years and older (54%), male (69%), Black (55%), and heroin users (96%). Compared to PWID who primarily used private settings, the adjusted odds of recent overdose were greater among PWID who mostly used semi-public and public locations to inject drugs. We also found independent associations between arrest and semi-public spaces, and between receptive syringe sharing and public spaces (all p spaces where PWID can reduce their risk of overdose, likelihood of arrest and blood-borne diseases, and the dual potential of the environment in promoting health and risk. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Sheldon, Steven B.; Davis, Marcia H.
2015-01-01
This report focuses on the opening of new school libraries and their impact on schools, teachers and students after two years of implementation of the Baltimore Elementary and Middle School Library Project (Library Project). The findings build on the first report of this project and show that it is not just new facilities, but also the added…
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Early to middle Jurassic salt in Baltimore Canyon trough
McKinney, B. Ann; Lee, Myung W.; Agena, Warren F.; Poag, C. Wylie
2005-01-01
A pervasive, moderately deep (5-6 s two-way traveltime), high-amplitude reflection is traced on multichannel seismic sections over an approximately 7500 km² area of Baltimore Canyon Trough. The layer associated with the reflection is about 25 km wide, about 60 m thick in the center, and thins monotonically laterally, though asymmetrically, at the edges. Geophysical characteristics are compatible with an interpretation of this negative-polarity reflector as a salt lens deposited on the top of a synrift evaporite sequence. However, alternative interpretations of the layer as gas-saturated sediments, an overpressured shale, or a weathered igneous intrusion are also worthy of consideration.Geophysical analyses were made on three wavelet- and true-amplitude processed multichannel seismic dip lines. The lens-shaped layer demarked by the reflection has a velocity of 4.4 km/s; the lens lies within strata having velocities of 5.3 to 5.7 km/s. A trough marking the onset of the lens has an amplitude that is 10 to 20 db greater than reflections from the encasing layers and an apparent reflection coefficient of -0.24. Using amplitude versus offset analysis methods, we determined that observed reflection coefficients, though variable, decrease consistently with respect to increasing offset. Linear inversion yields a low density, about 2.2 g/cc. Integration of one of the true-amplitude-processed lines and one-dimensional modeling of the layer provide data on the impedance contrast and interference patterns that further reinforce the salt lens interpretation.The thin, horizontal salt lens was probably deposited or precipitated during the Jurassic in a shallow, narrow (peripheral) rift basin, as rifting progressed down the North Atlantic margin. Unlike thicker deposits in other areas that deformed and flowed, often into diapir structures, this thin lens has remained relatively undisturbed since deposition.
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RAMS (Risk Analysis - Modular System) methodology
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Stenner, R.D.; Strenge, D.L.; Buck, J.W. [and others
1996-10-01
The Risk Analysis - Modular System (RAMS) was developed to serve as a broad scope risk analysis tool for the Risk Assessment of the Hanford Mission (RAHM) studies. The RAHM element provides risk analysis support for Hanford Strategic Analysis and Mission Planning activities. The RAHM also provides risk analysis support for the Hanford 10-Year Plan development activities. The RAMS tool draws from a collection of specifically designed databases and modular risk analysis methodologies and models. RAMS is a flexible modular system that can be focused on targeted risk analysis needs. It is specifically designed to address risks associated with overall strategy, technical alternative, and `what if` questions regarding the Hanford cleanup mission. RAMS is set up to address both near-term and long-term risk issues. Consistency is very important for any comparative risk analysis, and RAMS is designed to efficiently and consistently compare risks and produce risk reduction estimates. There is a wide range of output information that can be generated by RAMS. These outputs can be detailed by individual contaminants, waste forms, transport pathways, exposure scenarios, individuals, populations, etc. However, they can also be in rolled-up form to support high-level strategy decisions.
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Baron, J.H.; Nunez McLeod, J.; Rivera, S.S.
1997-01-01
This book contains a selection of research works performed in the CEDIAC Institute (Cuyo National University) in the area of Risk Analysis, with specific orientations to the subjects of uncertainty and sensitivity studies, software reliability, severe accident modeling, etc. This volume presents important material for all those researches who want to have an insight in the risk analysis field, as a tool to solution several problems frequently found in the engineering and applied sciences field, as well as for the academic teachers who want to keep up to date, including the new developments and improvements continuously arising in this field [es
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Seliger, Stephen L; Wendell, Carrington R; Waldstein, Shari R; Ferrucci, Luigi; Zonderman, Alan B
2015-01-01
Renal disease has been associated with greater risk of dementia and greater cognitive impairment. However, the relationship of lower renal function with long-term decline in specific domains of cognitive function remains unclear among community-dwelling, non-demented individuals. Stroke- and dementia-free participants (n = 2,116) were enrolled in the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging, a community-based, prospective, longitudinal study. Renal function was estimated by the inverse of serum creatinine adjusted for age, sex and race and (in sensitivity analyses) estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) using the MDRD formula. Outcome measures were changes in scores on 6 cognitive tests encompassing a range of cognitive functions, measured at 2-year intervals. Mixed-effects regression models examined the longitudinal relations of renal function with cognitive functions after adjusting for demographics, comorbidity and other potential confounders. Mean age at initial testing was 53.9 years (SD 17.1), and 94 participants (4.4%) had an eGFR age, longitudinal increases in creatinine concentrations were associated with more rapid decline in performance on several cognitive measures, including the learning slope of the California Verbal Learning Test, a test of verbal learning (p renal function independently associated with greater long-term declines in visual memory and verbal memory and learning. © 2015 National Institutes of Health (NIH). Published by S. Karger AG, Basel.
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A background risk analysis. Vol. 1
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Taylor, J.R.
1979-01-01
This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles, and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques, described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justification or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appendix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 1 contains a short history of risk analysis, and chapters on risk, failures, errors and accidents, and general procedures for risk analysis. (BP)
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International Conference on Risk Analysis
Oliveira, Teresa; Rigas, Alexandros; Gulati, Sneh
2015-01-01
This book covers the latest results in the field of risk analysis. Presented topics include probabilistic models in cancer research, models and methods in longevity, epidemiology of cancer risk, engineering reliability and economical risk problems. The contributions of this volume originate from the 5th International Conference on Risk Analysis (ICRA 5). The conference brought together researchers and practitioners working in the field of risk analysis in order to present new theoretical and computational methods with applications in biology, environmental sciences, public health, economics and finance.
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Donovan, Mitchell; Miller, Andrew; Baker, Matthew; Gellis, Allen C.
2015-01-01
Disparity between watershed erosion rates and downstream sediment delivery has remained an important theme in geomorphology for many decades, with the role of floodplains in sediment storage as a common focus. In the Piedmont Province of the eastern USA, upland deforestation and agricultural land use following European settlement led to accumulation of thick packages of overbank sediment in valley bottoms, commonly referred to as legacy deposits. Previous authors have argued that legacy deposits represent a potentially important source of modern sediment loads following remobilization by lateral migration and progressive channel widening. This paper seeks to quantify (1) rates of sediment remobilization from Baltimore County floodplains by channel migration and bank erosion, (2) proportions of streambank sediment derived from legacy deposits, and (3) potential contribution of net streambank erosion and legacy sediments to downstream sediment yield within the Mid-Atlantic Piedmont.We calculated measurable gross erosion and deposition rates within the fluvial corridor along 40 valley segments from 18 watersheds with drainage areas between 0.18 and 155 km2 in Baltimore County, Maryland. We compared stream channel and floodplain morphology from lidar-based digital elevation data collected in 2005 with channel positions recorded on 1:2400 scale topographic maps from 1959–1961 in order to quantify 44–46 years of channel change. Sediment bulk density and particle size distributions were characterized from streambank and channel deposit samples and used for volume to mass conversions and for comparison with other sediment sources.Average annual lateral migration rates ranged from 0.04 to 0.19 m/y, which represented an annual migration of 2.5% (0.9–4.4%) channel width across all study segments, suggesting that channel dimensions may be used as reasonable predictors of bank erosion rates. Gross bank erosion rates varied from 43 to 310 Mg/km/y (median = 114) and
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Yang, Cui; Linas, Beth; Kirk, Gregory; Bollinger, Robert; Chang, Larry; Chander, Geetanjali; Siconolfi, Daniel; Braxton, Sharif; Rudolph, Abby; Latkin, Carl
2015-06-17
Alcohol use is a risk factor for the acquisition of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) among African American men who have sex with men (MSM). Mobile phone-based ecological momentary assessments (EMA) could minimize bias due to retrospective recall and thus provide a better understanding of the social and structural context of alcohol use and its relationship with HIV-related risk behaviors in this population as well as other highly stigmatized populations. We describe the study design and the implementation, feasibility, reactivity, and acceptability of an EMA study of alcohol use and HIV-related behaviors among African American MSM in Baltimore. Participants were recruited through flyers and word-of-mouth in Baltimore from September 2013 to November 2014. Each participant was loaned an Android smartphone and instructed to respond to multiple prompts from the mobile app for 4 weeks. Data were collected through (1) random prompts delivered three times daily assessing participants' location, activity, mood, and social context, (2) daily prompts capturing drinking and sex events occurring in the past 24 hours, and (3) event-contingent responses collecting participants' self-reported episodes of drinking. A total of 16 participants enrolled in the study. The current analyses focused on 15 participants who completed at least 24 days of follow-up (mean follow-up time 29 days; range 24-35 days). Study participants (N=15) were a median 38 years of age (range 27-62 years) with low levels of income and educational attainment. Ten individuals self-reported living with HIV/AIDS, over half reported drinking alcohol at least 2-3 times a week, and a third reported binge drinking (ie, 6 or more drinks on one occasion) on a weekly basis. Based on the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) score, nearly half were classified as hazardous drinkers (score 8-15) and a fifth were likely dependent (score ≥16). A total of 140 participant-initiated events were reported, and 75
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Risk analysis: opening the process
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hubert, Ph.; Mays, C.
1998-01-01
This conference on risk analysis took place in Paris, 11-14 october 1999. Over 200 paper where presented in the seven following sessions: perception; environment and health; persuasive risks; objects and products; personal and collective involvement; assessment and valuation; management. A rational approach to risk analysis has been developed in the three last decades. Techniques for risk assessment have been thoroughly enhanced, risk management approaches have been developed, decision making processes have been clarified, the social dimensions of risk perception and management have been investigated. Nevertheless this construction is being challenged by recent events which reveal how deficits in stakeholder involvement, openness and democratic procedures can undermine risk management actions. Indeed, the global process most components of risk analysis may be radically called into question. Food safety has lately been a prominent issue, but now debates appear, or old debates are revisited in the domains of public health, consumer products safety, waste management, environmental risks, nuclear installations, automobile safety and pollution. To meet the growing pressures for efficiency, openness, accountability, and multi-partner communication in risk analysis, institutional changes are underway in many European countries. However, the need for stakeholders to develop better insight into the process may lead to an evolution of all the components of risks analysis, even in its most (technical' steps. For stakeholders of different professional background, political projects, and responsibilities, risk identification procedures must be rendered understandable, quantitative risk assessment must be intelligible and accommodated in action proposals, ranging from countermeasures to educational programs to insurance mechanisms. Management formats must be open to local and political input and other types of operational feedback. (authors)
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Hartzell, Sharon E; Unger, Michael A; McGee, Beth L; Wilson, Sacoby M; Yonkos, Lance T
2017-10-01
Estuarine sediments in regions with prolonged histories of industrial activity are often laden to significant depths with complex contaminant mixtures, including trace metals and persistent organic pollutants. Given the complexity of assessing risks from multi-contaminant exposures, the direct measurement of impacts to biological receptors is central to characterizing contaminated sediment sites. Though biological consequences are less commonly assessed at depth, laboratory-based toxicity testing of subsurface sediments can be used to delineate the scope of contamination at impacted sites. The extent and depth of sediment toxicity in Bear Creek, near Baltimore, Maryland, USA, was delineated using 10-day acute toxicity tests with the estuarine amphipod Leptocheirus plumulosus, and chemical analysis of trace metals and persistent organic pollutants. A gradient of toxicity was demonstrated in surface sediments with 21 of 22 tested sites differing significantly from controls. Effects were most pronounced (100% lethality) at sites proximate to a historic industrial complex. Sediments from eight of nine core samples to depths of 80 cm were particularly impacted (i.e., caused significant lethality to L. plumulosus) even in locations overlain with relatively non-toxic surface sediments, supporting a conclusion that toxicity observed at the surface (top 2 cm) does not adequately predict toxicity at depth. In seven of nine sites, toxicity of surface sediments differed from toxicity at levels beneath by 28 to 69%, in five instances underestimating toxicity (28 to 69%), and in two instances overestimating toxicity (44 to 56%). Multiple contaminants exceeded sediment quality guidelines and correlated positively with toxic responses within surface sediments (e.g., chromium, nickel, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH), total petroleum hydrocarbon). Use of an antibody-based PAH biosensor revealed that porewater PAH concentrations also increased with depth at most sites. This
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Banks, David L; Rios Insua, David
2015-01-01
Flexible Models to Analyze Opponent Behavior A relatively new area of research, adversarial risk analysis (ARA) informs decision making when there are intelligent opponents and uncertain outcomes. Adversarial Risk Analysis develops methods for allocating defensive or offensive resources against intelligent adversaries. Many examples throughout illustrate the application of the ARA approach to a variety of games and strategic situations. The book shows decision makers how to build Bayesian models for the strategic calculation of their opponents, enabling decision makers to maximize their expected utility or minimize their expected loss. This new approach to risk analysis asserts that analysts should use Bayesian thinking to describe their beliefs about an opponent's goals, resources, optimism, and type of strategic calculation, such as minimax and level-k thinking. Within that framework, analysts then solve the problem from the perspective of the opponent while placing subjective probability distributions on a...
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Sze, C.; Zaitchik, B. F.; Scott, A.
2015-12-01
Urban regions are often impacted more by heat than adjacent rural areas, which is a phenomenon known as the urban heat island (UHI) effect. Urban areas are also highly heterogeneous and notoriously difficult to monitor using standard meteorological protocols—the hottest microclimates within a city often occur in locations that lack open, representative installation sites that are an adequate distance from buildings and direct heat sources. To investigate the challenges of monitoring urban heat, this study examines the sensitivity of temperature and humidity sensors currently used in a Baltimore UHI monitoring network to differences in sun exposure, material on which the data collecting instrument is attached, and land cover class of the vicinity. Sensitivity to sun exposure and attachment site can be interpreted as sources of uncertainty for urban heat monitoring, while sensitivity to land cover may reflect a true source of local temperature and humidity variability. In this study, we present results from a test deployment designed to assess the sensitivity of heat measurements to each of these three factors. We then apply these results to interpret measurements taken across the entire Baltimore UHI monitoring network. These results can then be used to improve heat measurements and more accurately represent and quantify the UHI effect on a broader scale, such as in neighborhoods or urban centers.
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Scott, A.; Kelley, C.; Azdoud, Y.; Ambikapathi, R.; Hobson, M.; Lehman, A.; Ghugare, P.; He, C.; Zaitchik, B. F.; Waugh, D.; McCormack, M.; Baja, K.
2017-12-01
Anthropogenic activities alter the urban surface and surface atmosphere, generating heat and pollutants that have known detrimental impacts on health. Monitoring these environmental variables in urban environments is made difficult by the spatial heterogeneity of urban environments, meaning that two nearby locations may have significantly different temperatures, humidities, or gas concentrations. Thus, urban monitoring often requires more densely placed monitors than current standards or budgets allow. Recent advances in low-cost sensors and Internet of Things (IoT) enabled hardware offer possible solutions. We present an autonomous wireless, open-source, IoT-enabled environmental monitor called a WeatherCube, developed for the Greater Baltimore Open Air project, funded in part by the EPA SmartCity Challenge. The WeatherCube is suitable for urban monitoring and capable of measuring meteorological variables (temperature and humidity) as well as air quality (ozone, nitrogen dioxide, and sulfur dioxide). The WeatherCube devices were built in collaboration with Johns Hopkins University, local government, and community members, including through an innovative job training program. Monitors are hosted by community partners and libraries throughout Baltimore city and surrounding communities. We present the first wave of data collected by the Greater Baltimore Open Air project and compare it to data collected by the Maryland Department of the Environment (MDE). Additionally, we will provide an overview of our experience engaging with the local makers, citizen scientists, and environmental groups to improve their urban environmental monitoring. By developing low-cost devices tailored for urban environmental monitoring, we present an innovative model for both conducting research and community outreach.
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A background to risk analysis. Vol. 3
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Taylor, J.R.
1979-01-01
This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles, and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justifi- cation or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appenix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 3 contains chapters on quantification of risk, failure and accident probability, risk analysis and design, and examles of risk analysis for process plant. (BP)
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Whole grain intake: The Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging.
Maras, Janice E; Newby, P K; Bakun, Peter J; Ferrucci, Luigi; Tucker, Katherine L
2009-02-01
Our objective was to identify major dietary sources of whole grains and to describe the construction of a database of whole grain content of foods. Dietary information was collected with 7-d food records from men and women in the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging, mean age 62.1 +/- 16.0 years, who participated in the dietary assessment portion of the study (n = 1516), and estimates of whole grain intake were obtained from a newly developed database. The Pyramid Servings database and 1994-1996 Continuing Survey of Food Intakes by Individuals (CSFII) recipe ingredients database were then used to calculate both servings and gram weights of whole grain intakes. Mean intakes of whole grains, refined grains, and total grains, as well as frequency of intake for major whole grain food groups and whole grain content for each group, were calculated. Top contributors of whole grains were ready-to-eat breakfast cereals (made with whole grain as well as bran), hot breakfast cereals (made with whole grain), multi-grain bread, and whole wheat bread. While more research is needed to better understand the benefits of whole grains, the development of research tools, including databases to accurately assess whole grain intake, is a critical step in completing such research.
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Braggio, John T; Mitchell, Clifford S; Fierro-Luperini, Sonia
2015-01-01
The 2000 Pew reports became the impetus for the National Environmental Public Health Tracking (EPHT) Program, but there was no mention that Spanish-speaking persons are at increased risk of exposure to environmental hazards. To undertake successful EPHT outreach on Spanish-speaking persons (Hispanics), it is necessary to better understand their environmental health profile and barriers to health care access. Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) survey questions were administered orally in Spanish to Spanish-speaking study participants. Volunteers were tested at a non-for-profit social service and referral agency in Baltimore. To control for acculturation, only Spanish-speaking persons who had lived in the United States for less than 10 years were selected. Responses to 40 BRFSS survey questions asked during the assessment and completion of 3 intervention activities. This study provides new information about Spanish-speaking persons, most of whom (85.3%) would not have been included in the landline administration of the BRFSS survey. Although 29.9% of the participants reported indoor pesticide use and another 9.2% reported outdoor pesticide use, lifetime (3.5%) and current (1.2%) asthma prevalence was significantly lower than asthma prevalence reported by Maryland Hispanics and all Maryland residents. There were significantly lower cholesterol screening (21.5%) and a significantly higher prevalence of diabetes (12.5%) in Spanish-speaking participants than in Maryland Hispanics and all Maryland residents. Among study participants, only 7.8% had health insurance and 39.9% reported that they could not see a doctor. Of the 3 outreach efforts completed, the most promising one involved asking Spanish-English-speaking health care professionals to distribute Spanish comic books about pesticides exposures and health outcomes in community settings where Spanish-only speakers and children were found. The effectiveness of passive and community-based EPHT
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lima-e-Silva, Pedro Paulo de
1996-01-01
The conventional Risk Analysis (RA) relates usually a certain undesired event frequency with its consequences. Such technique is used nowadays in Brazil to analyze accidents and their consequences strictly under the human approach, valuing loss of human equipment, human structures and human lives, without considering the damage caused to natural resources that keep life possible on Earth. This paradigm was developed primarily because of the Homo sapiens' lack of perception upon the natural web needed to sustain his own life. In reality, the Brazilian professionals responsible today for licensing, auditing and inspecting environmental aspects of human activities face huge difficulties in making technical specifications and procedures leading to acceptable levels of impact, furthermore considering the intrinsic difficulties to define those levels. Therefore, in Brazil the RA technique is a weak tool for licensing for many reasons, and of them are its short scope (only accident considerations) and wrong a paradigm (only human direct damages). A paper from the author about the former was already proposed to the 7th International Conference on Environmetrics, past July'96, USP-SP. This one discusses the extension of the risk analysis concept to take into account environmental consequences, transforming the conventional analysis into a broader methodology named here as Environmental Risk Analysis. (author)
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Transportation impact analysis for the shipment of low specific activity nitric acid. Revisison 1
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Green, J.R.
1995-01-01
This is in support of the Plutonium-Uranium Extraction (PUREX) Facility Low Specific Activity (LSA) Nitric Acid Shipment Environmental Assessment. It analyzes potential toxicological and radiological risks associated with transportation of PUREX Facility LSA Nitric Acid from the Hanford Site to Portsmouth VA, Baltimore MD, and Port Elizabeth NJ
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Transportation impact analysis for the shipment of low specific activity nitric acid. Revisison 1
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Green, J.R.
1995-05-16
This is in support of the Plutonium-Uranium Extraction (PUREX) Facility Low Specific Activity (LSA) Nitric Acid Shipment Environmental Assessment. It analyzes potential toxicological and radiological risks associated with transportation of PUREX Facility LSA Nitric Acid from the Hanford Site to Portsmouth VA, Baltimore MD, and Port Elizabeth NJ.
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Gourgari, Evgenia; Spanakis,Elias; Dobs,Adrian
2016-01-01
Evgenia Gourgari,1 Elias Spanakis,2 Adrian Sandra Dobs3 1Division of Pediatric Endocrinology, Georgetown University School of Medicine, Washington, DC, 2Division of Endocrinology, University of Maryland School of Medicine, 3Department of Endocrinology, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA Abstract: Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is a syndrome associated with insulin resistance (IR), obesity, infertility, and increased cardiometabolic risk. This is a des...
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I.D. Yesilonis; R.V. Pouyat; N.K. Neerchal
2008-01-01
We investigated the spatial distribution of heavy metal above-background (anthropic) contents of Cd, Co, Cu, Cr, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb, Ti, V, and Zn in Baltimore City surface soils and related these levels to potential contaminating sources. Composite soil samples (0?10 cm depth) were digested using a nitric and hydrochloric extraction technique. Slightly more than 10% of...
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Component of the risk analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Martinez, I.; Campon, G.
2013-01-01
The power point presentation reviews issues like analysis of risk (Codex), management risk, preliminary activities manager, relationship between government and industries, microbiological danger and communication of risk
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Credit Risk Evaluation : Modeling - Analysis - Management
Wehrspohn, Uwe
2002-01-01
An analysis and further development of the building blocks of modern credit risk management: -Definitions of default -Estimation of default probabilities -Exposures -Recovery Rates -Pricing -Concepts of portfolio dependence -Time horizons for risk calculations -Quantification of portfolio risk -Estimation of risk measures -Portfolio analysis and portfolio improvement -Evaluation and comparison of credit risk models -Analytic portfolio loss distributions The thesis contributes to the evaluatio...
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
1991-04-01
This is the report of Workshop 1, January 22-26, 1990, Baltimore, Maryland. The document includes the Report of the Cosmic and Heliospheric Panel, Report of the Ionosphere-Thermosphere-Mesosphere Panel, Report of the Magnetospheric Physics Panel, Report of the Solar Physics Panel, Report of the Theory Panel
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Risk Analysis in Road Tunnels – Most Important Risk Indicators
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Berchtold, Florian; Knaust, Christian; Thöns, Sebastian
2016-01-01
Methodologies on fire risk analysis in road tunnels consider numerous factors affecting risks (risk indicators) and express the results by risk measures. But only few comprehensive studies on effects of risk indicators on risk measures are available. For this reason, this study quantifies...... the effects and highlights the most important risk indicators with the aim to support further developments in risk analysis. Therefore, a system model of a road tunnel was developed to determine the risk measures. The system model can be divided into three parts: the fire part connected to the fire model Fire...... Dynamics Simulator (FDS); the evacuation part connected to the evacuation model FDS+Evac; and the frequency part connected to a model to calculate the frequency of fires. This study shows that the parts of the system model (and their most important risk indicators) affect the risk measures in the following...
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Risk analysis in radiosurgery treatments using risk matrices
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Delgado, J. M.; Sanchez Cayela, C.; Ramirez, M. L.; Perez, A.
2011-01-01
The aim of this study is the risk analysis process stereotactic single-dose radiotherapy and evaluation of those initiating events that lead to increased risk and a possible solution in the design of barriers.
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Risk analysis of Odelouca cofferdam
Pimenta, L.; Caldeira, L.; Maranha das Neves, E.
2009-01-01
In this paper we present the risk analysis of Odelouca Cofferdam, using an event tree analysis. The initializing events, failure modes and analysed limit states are discussed based on an influence diagram. The constructed event trees and their interpretation are presented. The obtained risk values are represented in an FN plot superimposed to the acceptability and tolerability risk limits proposed for Portuguese dams. Initially, particular emphasis is placed on the main characteristic...
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Generalized indices for radiation risk analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bykov, A.A.; Demin, V.F.
1989-01-01
A new approach to ensuring nuclear safety has begun forming since the early eighties. The approach based on the probabilistic safety analysis, the principles of acceptable risk, the optimization of safety measures, etc. has forced a complex of adequate quantitative methods of assessment, safety analysis and risk management to be developed. The method of radiation risk assessment and analysis hold a prominent place in the complex. National and international research and regulatory organizations ICRP, IAEA, WHO, UNSCEAR, OECD/NEA have given much attention to the development of the conceptual and methodological basis of those methods. Some resolutions of the National Commission of Radiological Protection (NCRP) and the Problem Commission on Radiation Hygiene of the USSR Ministry of Health should be also noted. Both CBA (cost benefit analysis) and other methods of radiation risk analysis and safety management use a system of natural and socio-economic indices characterizing the radiation risk or damage. There exist a number of problems associated with the introduction, justification and use of these indices. For example, the price, a, of radiation damage, or collective dose unit, is a noteworthy index. The difficulties in its qualitative and quantitative determination are still an obstacle for a wide application of CBA to the radiation risk analysis and management. During recent 10-15 years these problems have been a subject of consideration for many authors. The present paper also considers the issues of the qualitative and quantitative justification of the indices of radiation risk analysis
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Reliability and validity of risk analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Aven, Terje; Heide, Bjornar
2009-01-01
In this paper we investigate to what extent risk analysis meets the scientific quality requirements of reliability and validity. We distinguish between two types of approaches within risk analysis, relative frequency-based approaches and Bayesian approaches. The former category includes both traditional statistical inference methods and the so-called probability of frequency approach. Depending on the risk analysis approach, the aim of the analysis is different, the results are presented in different ways and consequently the meaning of the concepts reliability and validity are not the same.
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Safety analysis, risk assessment, and risk acceptance criteria
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jamali, K.
1997-01-01
This paper discusses a number of topics that relate safety analysis as documented in the Department of Energy (DOE) safety analysis reports (SARs), probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) as characterized primarily in the context of the techniques that have assumed some level of formality in commercial nuclear power plant applications, and risk acceptance criteria as an outgrowth of PRA applications. DOE SARs of interest are those that are prepared for DOE facilities under DOE Order 5480.23 and the implementing guidance in DOE STD-3009-94. It must be noted that the primary area of application for DOE STD-3009 is existing DOE facilities and that certain modifications of the STD-3009 approach are necessary in SARs for new facilities. Moreover, it is the hazard analysis (HA) and accident analysis (AA) portions of these SARs that are relevant to the present discussions. Although PRAs can be qualitative in nature, PRA as used in this paper refers more generally to all quantitative risk assessments and their underlying methods. HA as used in this paper refers more generally to all qualitative risk assessments and their underlying methods that have been in use in hazardous facilities other than nuclear power plants. This discussion includes both quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methods. PRA has been used, improved, developed, and refined since the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) was published in 1975 by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Much debate has ensued since WASH-1400 on exactly what the role of PRA should be in plant design, reactor licensing, 'ensuring' plant and process safety, and a large number of other decisions that must be made for potentially hazardous activities. Of particular interest in this area is whether the risks quantified using PRA should be compared with numerical risk acceptance criteria (RACs) to determine whether a facility is 'safe.' Use of RACs requires quantitative estimates of consequence frequency and magnitude
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A background to risk analysis. Vol. 2
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Taylor, J.R.
1979-01-01
This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justification or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appendix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 2 treats generic methods of qualitative failure analysis. (BP)
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Information Security Risk Analysis
Peltier, Thomas R
2010-01-01
Offers readers with the knowledge and the skill-set needed to achieve a highly effective risk analysis assessment. This title demonstrates how to identify threats and then determine if those threats pose a real risk. It is suitable for industry and academia professionals.
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mazur, A.
1985-01-01
Risk-benefit analysis has become popular in the past decade as a means of improving decision making, especially in the area of technology policy. Here risk-benefit analysis is compared to other (equally defensible) approaches to decision making, showing how it favors some political interests more than others, and suggesting why it has recently come to the fore as a tool of political analysis. A considerable portion of the discussion concerns nuclear power. 6 references
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Neuropathologic Studies of the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging (BLSA)
O’Brien, Richard J.; Resnick, Susan M.; Zonderman, Alan B.; Ferrucci, Luigi; Crain, Barbara J.; Pletnikova, Olga; Rudow, Gay; Iacono, Diego; Riudavets, Miguel A.; Driscoll, Ira; Price, Donald L.; Martin, Lee J.; Troncoso, Juan C.
2010-01-01
The Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging (BLSA) was established in 1958 and is one the oldest prospective studies of aging in the USA and the world. The BLSA is supported by the National Institute of Aging (NIA) and its mission is to learn what happens to people as they get old and how to sort out changes due to aging and from those due to disease or other causes. In 1986, an autopsy program combined with comprehensive neurologic and cognitive evaluations was established in collaboration with the Johns Hopkins University Alzheimer’s Disease Research Center (ADRC). Since then, 211 subjects have undergone autopsy. Here we review the key clinical neuropathological correlations from this autopsy series. The focus is on the morphological and biochemical changes that occur in normal aging, and the early neuropathological changes of neurodegenerative diseases, especially Alzheimer’s disease (AD). We highlight the combined clinical, pathologic, morphometric, and biochemical evidence of asymptomatic AD, a state characterized by normal clinical evaluations in subjects with abundant AD pathology. We conclude that in some individuals, successful cognitive aging results from compensatory mechanisms that occur at the neuronal level (i.e., neuronal hypertrophy and synaptic plasticity) whereas a failure of compensation may culminate in disease. PMID:19661626
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A background to risk analysis. Vol. 4
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Taylor, J.R.
1979-01-01
This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles, and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justification or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appendix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 4 treats human error in plant operation. (BP)
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Coe, William H; Redmond, Leslie; Parisi, Jeanine M; Bowie, Janice V; Liu, Elizabeth Y; Ng, Tin Yee; Onyuka, Alberta M A; Cort, Marcia; Cheskin, Lawrence J
2017-01-01
African American adults achieve smaller amounts of weight loss than their white counterparts when exposed to the same intervention and are more likely to regain weight during long-term follow-up. To identify perceived motivators, barriers, and facilitators to weight loss and behavior change among African American adults. Two focus groups were conducted between April and May 2015 at an urban community health center in Baltimore City, Maryland. A total of 13 participants took part in the discussions. Eligible participants were obese (BMI 30+) African American adults aged 21-70 who had at least one obesity-related comorbidity. Discussion questions were designed to identify the personal, social, and environmental factors that influence weight loss and behavior change among urban minority populations. Statements were first classified as a motivator, barrier, or facilitator, then divided further as a personal, social, or environmental factor influencing weight loss and behavior change. Among the findings, several novel motivators (reducing or eliminating medication, improving physical intimacy) and barriers (personal transportation, lack of access to scales) emerged that were not previously characterized in the existing literature. This study was intended to provide preliminary evidence that may be used to guide the development of innovative and culturally relevant weight-loss interventions in the future. Results are applicable to similar urban minority populations. Copyright © 2017 National Medical Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Advances in probabilistic risk analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hardung von Hardung, H.
1982-01-01
Probabilistic risk analysis can now look back upon almost a quarter century of intensive development. The early studies, whose methods and results are still referred to occasionally, however, only permitted rough estimates to be made of the probabilities of recognizable accident scenarios, failing to provide a method which could have served as a reference base in calculating the overall risk associated with nuclear power plants. The first truly solid attempt was the Rasmussen Study and, partly based on it, the German Risk Study. In those studies, probabilistic risk analysis has been given a much more precise basis. However, new methodologies have been developed in the meantime, which allow much more informative risk studies to be carried out. They have been found to be valuable tools for management decisions with respect to backfitting, reinforcement and risk limitation. Today they are mainly applied by specialized private consultants and have already found widespread application especially in the USA. (orig.) [de
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Martínez, Airín D; Juon, Hee-soon; Levine, David M; Lyford-Pike, Victoria; Peters, Sadie
2014-01-01
Background Studies suggest that US Latinos have a higher prevalence of obesity than White Americans. However, obesity may differ by pre-immigration factors and Latinos’ cultural representations of ideal body image. This paper explores whether country of origin’s stage in the nutrition transition is related to Latino immigrants’ BMI category and self-perception of weight. Methods Primary data originated from a cross-sectional questionnaire of Latina/o immigrants in Baltimore in 2011. A conveni...
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WIPP fire hazards and risk analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
1991-05-01
The purpose of this analysis was to conduct a fire hazards risk analysis of the Transuranic (TRU) contact-handled waste receipt, emplacement, and disposal activities at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). The technical bases and safety envelope for these operations are defined in the approved WIPP Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR). Although the safety documentation for the initial phase of the Test Program, the dry bin scale tests, has not yet been approved by the Department of Energy (DOE), reviews of the draft to date, including those by the Advisory Committee on Nuclear Facility Safety (ACNFS), have concluded that the dry bin scale tests present no significant risks in excess of those estimated in the approved WIPP FSAR. It is the opinion of the authors and reviewers of this analysis, based on sound engineering judgment and knowledge of the WIPP operations, that a Fire Hazards and Risk Analysis specific to the dry bin scale test program is not warranted prior to first waste receipt. This conclusion is further supported by the risk analysis presented in this document which demonstrates the level of risk to WIPP operations posed by fire to be extremely low. 15 refs., 41 figs., 48 tabs
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Risk Characterization uncertainties associated description, sensitivity analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Carrillo, M.; Tovar, M.; Alvarez, J.; Arraez, M.; Hordziejewicz, I.; Loreto, I.
2013-01-01
The power point presentation is about risks to the estimated levels of exposure, uncertainty and variability in the analysis, sensitivity analysis, risks from exposure to multiple substances, formulation of guidelines for carcinogenic and genotoxic compounds and risk subpopulations
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Advances in Risk Analysis with Big Data.
Choi, Tsan-Ming; Lambert, James H
2017-08-01
With cloud computing, Internet-of-things, wireless sensors, social media, fast storage and retrieval, etc., organizations and enterprises have access to unprecedented amounts and varieties of data. Current risk analysis methodology and applications are experiencing related advances and breakthroughs. For example, highway operations data are readily available, and making use of them reduces risks of traffic crashes and travel delays. Massive data of financial and enterprise systems support decision making under risk by individuals, industries, regulators, etc. In this introductory article, we first discuss the meaning of big data for risk analysis. We then examine recent advances in risk analysis with big data in several topic areas. For each area, we identify and introduce the relevant articles that are featured in the special issue. We conclude with a discussion on future research opportunities. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.
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Overcoming barriers to integrating economic analysis into risk assessment.
Hoffmann, Sandra
2011-09-01
Regulatory risk analysis is designed to provide decisionmakers with a clearer understanding of how policies are likely to affect risk. The systems that produce risk are biological, physical, and social and economic. As a result, risk analysis is an inherently interdisciplinary task. Yet in practice, risk analysis has been interdisciplinary in only limited ways. Risk analysis could provide more accurate assessments of risk if there were better integration of economics and other social sciences into risk assessment itself. This essay examines how discussions about risk analysis policy have influenced the roles of various disciplines in risk analysis. It explores ways in which integrated bio/physical-economic modeling could contribute to more accurate assessments of risk. It reviews examples of the kind of integrated economics-bio/physical modeling that could be used to enhance risk assessment. The essay ends with a discussion of institutional barriers to greater integration of economic modeling into risk assessment and provides suggestions on how these might be overcome. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.
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Meierdiercks, K. L.; Smith, J. A.; Miller, A. J.
2006-12-01
The impact of urban development on watershed-scale hydrology is examined in a small urban watershed in the Metropolitan Baltimore area. Analyses focus on Dead Run, a 14.3 km2 tributary of the Gwynns Falls, which is the principal study watershed of the Baltimore Ecosystem Study. Field observations of rainfall and discharge have been collected for storms occurring in the 2003, 2004, and 2005 warm seasons including the flood of record for the USGS Dead Run at Franklintown gage (7 July 2004), in which 5 inches of rain fell in less than 4 hours. Dead Run has stream gages at 6 locations with drainage areas ranging from 1.2 to 14.3 km2. Hydrologic response to storm events varies greatly in each of the subwatersheds due to the diverse development types located there. These subwatersheds range in land use from medium-density residential, with and without stormwater management control, to commercial/light industrial with large impervious lots and an extensive network of stormwater management ponds. The unique response of each subwatershed is captured using field observations in conjunction with the EPA Stormwater Management Model (SWMM), which routes storm runoff over the land surface and through the drainage network of a watershed. Of particular importance to flood response is the structure of the drainage network (both surface channels and storm drain network) and its connectivity to preferential flow paths within the watershed. The Dead Run drainage network has been delineated using geospatial data derived from aerial photography and engineering planning drawings. Model analyses are used to examine the characteristics of flow paths that control flood response in urban watersheds. These analyses aim to identify patterns in urban flow pathways and use those patterns to predict response in other urban watersheds.
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Maritime transportation risk analysis: Review and analysis in light of some foundational issues
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Goerlandt, Floris; Montewka, Jakub
2015-01-01
Many methods and applications for maritime transportation risk analysis have been presented in the literature. In parallel, there is a recent focus on foundational issues in risk analysis, with calls for intensified research on fundamental concepts and principles underlying the scientific field. This paper presents a review and analysis of risk definitions, perspectives and scientific approaches to risk analysis found in the maritime transportation application area, focusing on applications addressing accidental risk of shipping in a sea area. For this purpose, a classification of risk definitions, an overview of elements in risk perspectives and a classification of approaches to risk analysis science are applied. Results reveal that in the application area, risk is strongly tied to probability, both in definitions and perspectives, while alternative views exist. A diffuse situation is also found concerning the scientific approach to risk analysis, with realist, proceduralist and constructivist foundations co-existing. Realist approaches dominate the application area. Very few applications systematically account for uncertainty, neither concerning the evidence base nor in relation to the limitations of the risk model in relation to the space of possible outcomes. Some suggestions are made to improve the current situation, aiming to strengthen the scientific basis for risk analysis. - Highlights: • Risk analyses in maritime transportation analysed in light of foundational issues. • Focus on definitions, perspectives and scientific approaches to risk analysis. • Probability-based definitions and realist approaches dominate the field. • Findings support calls for increased focus on foundational issues in risk research. • Some suggestions are made to improve the current situation
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STOCHASTIC METHODS IN RISK ANALYSIS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Vladimíra OSADSKÁ
2017-06-01
Full Text Available In this paper, we review basic stochastic methods which can be used to extend state-of-the-art deterministic analytical methods for risk analysis. We can conclude that the standard deterministic analytical methods highly depend on the practical experience and knowledge of the evaluator and therefore, the stochastic methods should be introduced. The new risk analysis methods should consider the uncertainties in input values. We present how large is the impact on the results of the analysis solving practical example of FMECA with uncertainties modelled using Monte Carlo sampling.
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Risk Analysis of Telecom Enterprise Financing
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
YU Hua; SHU Hua-ying
2005-01-01
The main research objects in this paper are the causes searching and risk estimating method for telecom enterprises' financial risks. The multi-mode financing for telecom enterprises makes it flexible to induce the capital and obtain the profit by corresponding projects. But there are also potential risks going with these financing modes. After making analysis of categories and causes of telecom enterprises' financing risk, a method by Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is put forward to estimating the financing risk. And the author makes her suggestion and opinion by example analysis, in order to provide some ideas and basis for telecom enterprise's financing decision-making.
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Incineration in low-level radioactive waste management at the University of Maryland at Baltimore
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cooley, L.R.
1986-01-01
The selection of an incinerator by the University of Maryland at Baltimore was carried out under a demonstration grant from the Department of Energy (DOE). The system selected is a 300 lb per hour dual-chambered, controlled air incinerator. The cost of the unit was $130,000, excluding installation. The interior is lined with high temperature brick rather than a castable refractory. The burners in the upper and lower chambers are ''oversized'' to insure responsive temperature control of 2.5 million Btu/h in the upper chamber and 1.3 million Btu/h in the lower. The prescribed operating temperatures are 1900 to 2100 0 F in the upper chamber and 900 to 1200 0 F in the lower chamber. The system has a rated capacity of 300 lbs/h of type IV, pathological waste, but operational experience has limited our feed rate to 150 lbs/h
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The dynamics of injection drug users' personal networks and HIV risk behaviors.
Costenbader, Elizabeth C; Astone, Nan M; Latkin, Carl A
2006-07-01
While studies of the social networks of injection drug users (IDUs) have provided insight into how the structures of interpersonal relationships among IDUs affect HIV risk behaviors, the majority of these studies have been cross-sectional. The present study examined the dynamics of IDUs' social networks and HIV risk behaviors over time. Using data from a longitudinal HIV-intervention study conducted in Baltimore, MD, this study assessed changes in the composition of the personal networks of 409 IDUs. We used a multi-nomial logistic regression analysis to assess the association between changes in network composition and simultaneous changes in levels of injection HIV risk behaviors. Using the regression parameters generated by the multi-nomial model, we estimated the predicted probability of being in each of four HIV risk behavior change groups. Compared to the base case, individuals who reported an entirely new set of drug-using network contacts at follow-up were more than three times as likely to be in the increasing risk group. In contrast, reporting all new non-drug-using contacts at follow-up increased the likelihood of being in the stable low-risk group by almost 50% and decreased the probability of being in the consistently high-risk group by more than 70%. The findings from this study show that, over and above IDUs' baseline characteristics, changes in their personal networks are associated with changes in individuals' risky injection behaviors. They also suggest that interventions aimed at reducing HIV risk among IDUs might benefit from increasing IDUs' social contacts with individuals who are not drug users.
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Probabilistic risk analysis for nuclear power plants
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hauptmanns, U.
1988-01-01
Risk analysis is applied if the calculation of risk from observed failures is not possible, because events contributing substantially to risk are too seldom, as in the case of nuclear reactors. The process of analysis provides a number of benefits. Some of them are listed. After this by no means complete enumeration of possible benefits to be derived from a risk analysis. An outline of risk studiesd for PWR's with some comments on the models used are given. The presentation is indebted to the detailed treatment of the subject given in the PRA Procedures Guide. Thereafter some results of the German Risk Study, Phase B, which is under way are communicated. The paper concludes with some remarks on probabilistic considerations in licensing procedures. (orig./DG)
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Hydrophobic organic contaminants in surficial sediments of Baltimore Harbor: Inventories and sources
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ashley, J.T.F.; Baker, J.E.
1999-01-01
The heavily urbanized and industrialized Baltimore Harbor/Patapsco River/Back River system is one of the most highly contaminated regions of the Chesapeake Bay. In June 1996, surficial sediments were collected at 80 sites throughout the subestuarine system, including historically undersampled creek sand embayments. The samples were analyzed for a suite of hydrophobic organic contaminants (HOCs) consisting of 32 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and 113 polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) congeners. Total PAH and total PCB concentrations ranged from 90 to 46,200 and 8 to 2,150 ng/g dry weight, respectively. There was enormous spatial variability in the concentrations of HOCs, which was not well correlated to grain size or organic carbon content, suggesting nonequilibrium partitioning and/or proximity to sources as important factors explaining the observed spatial variability. High concentrations of both classes of HOCs were localized around major urban stormwater runoff discharges. Elevated PAH concentrations were also centered around the Sparrow's Point Industrial Complex, most likely a result of the pyrolysis of coal during the production of steel. All but 1 of the 80 sites exceeded the effects range-low (ERL) for total PCBs and, of those sites, 40% exceeded the effects range-medium (ERM), suggesting toxicity to marine benthic organisms would frequently occur. Using principal component analysis, differences in PAH signatures were discerned. Higher molecular weight PAHs were enriched in signatures from sediments close to suspected sources (i.e., urban stormwater runoff and steel production complexes) compared to those patterns observed at sites further from outfalls or runoff. Due to varying solubilities and affinities for organic matter of the individual PAHs, partitioning of the heavier weight PAHs may enrich settling particles with high molecular weight PAHs. Lower molecular weight PAHs, having lower affinity for particles, may travel from the source to a
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Amanda W. Vemuri; J. Morgan Grove; Matthew A. Wilson; William R. Jr. Burch
2011-01-01
With the rapid growth of cities worldwide, there is a need to better understand factors contributing to life satisfaction in urban environments. Using data from a long-term study of the Baltimore metropolitan region, we build on existing social scientific literature to examine a suite of theoretical factors that have been proposed to explain higher life satisfaction....
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Luyster FS
2017-02-01
Full Text Available Faith S Luyster,1 Reginald E Dunn,2 Diane S Lauderdale,3 Mercedes R Carnethon,4 Andrew M Tucker,5 Robert A Vogel,6 Andrew E Lincoln,2 Kristen L Knutson,7 Elliot J Pellman,8–10 Patrick J Strollo Jr11 1School of Nursing, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, 2Sports Medicine Research Center, MedStar Health Research Institute, Baltimore, MD, 3Department of Public Health Sciences, University of Chicago, 4Department of Preventive Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, 5MedStar Sports Medicine, MedStar Union Memorial Hospital, Baltimore, MD, 6Cardiology Section, Department of Veterans Affairs Medical Center, Denver, CO, 7Department of Medicine, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, 8ProHealth Care Associates, Lake Success, 9Department of Medicine, 10Department of Orthopedics, Mount Sinai School of Medicine, New York, NY, 11Department of Pulmonary, Allergy, and Critical Care Medicine, University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, Pittsburgh, PA, USA Purpose: Limited data from former National Football League (NFL players suggest that obstructive sleep apnea (OSA may be highly prevalent after retirement. It remains unclear whether the high prevalence of OSA in retired players is comparable to nonathletes. This retrospective analysis compared sleep apnea (SA risk in retired NFL players to a community cohort (CARDIA Sleep study, and examined associations between SA risk and cardiovascular risk factors, including subclinical atherosclerosis.Materials and methods: Retired NFL players (n=122 were matched to CARDIA Sleep participants by age ±2 years (range 37–55 years, body mass index ±2 kg/m2, race, and male sex. Participants underwent electron-beam computed tomography to measure coronary artery calcium (CAC and completed the Berlin Questionnaire to determine SA risk. The presence of CAC was defined as an Agatston score >0.Results: Retired NFL players had a greater prevalence of high SA risk than the matched CARDIA Sleep participants (27% vs 11
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Single-shell tank interim stabilization risk analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Basche, A.D.
1998-01-01
The purpose of the Single-Shell Tank (SST) Interim Stabilization Risk Analysis is to provide a cost and schedule risk analysis of HNF-2358, Rev. 1, Single-Shell Tank Interim Stabilization Project Plan (Project Plan) (Ross et al. 1998). The analysis compares the required cost profile by fiscal year (Section 4.2) and revised schedule completion date (Section 4.5) to the Project Plan. The analysis also evaluates the executability of the Project Plan and recommends a path forward for risk mitigation
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Condomless anal intercourse among males and females at high risk for heterosexual HIV infection
German, Danielle; Nguyen, Trang; Ogbue, Christine Powell; Flynn, Colin
2015-01-01
Background Understanding and addressing heterosexual HIV transmission requires attention to the range and context of heterosexual sexual behaviors. We sought to determine population-based prevalence of condomless anal intercourse (CAI) among individuals at increased heterosexual HIV risk in Baltimore and to identify demographic, behavioral, and health related correlates. Methods Data were from a cross-sectional study of 185 males and 198 females at increased heterosexual risk for HIV recruited using respondent driven sampling as part of CDC's National HIV Behavioral Surveillance Project in Baltimore, August-December 2010. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression examined factors associated with heterosexual CAI. Results The sample was majority African-American, with mean age of 38 among men and 34 among women. Forty-two percent of men (95% C.I.: 30.9, 52.0%) and 38% of women (95% C.I.: 29.4, 47.2%) reported any CAI in the past year, with variance by partner type and gender. Among men, CAI was significantly associated with homelessness, casual and exchange partners, same sex partner in past year, and substance use. Among women, CAI was significantly associated with lower education, casual and exchange partners, same sex partner in past year, multiple partners, and substance use. In adjusted gender-specific models, males and females with increasing numbers of partners were more likely to engage in CAI. Conclusions It is important to recognize the efficiency of transmission of HIV and other STIs through CAI. There is a need to broaden heterosexual sexual health promotion and HIV/STI prevention to adequately and appropriately address risks and prevention strategies for anal intercourse. PMID:25970308
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Multiple Sclerosis Increases Fracture Risk: A Meta-Analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Guixian Dong
2015-01-01
Full Text Available Purpose. The association between multiple sclerosis (MS and fracture risk has been reported, but results of previous studies remain controversial and ambiguous. To assess the association between MS and fracture risk, a meta-analysis was performed. Method. Based on comprehensive searches of the PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science, we identified outcome data from all articles estimating the association between MS and fracture risk. The pooled risk ratios (RRs with 95% confidence intervals (CIs were calculated. Results. A significant association between MS and fracture risk was found. This result remained statistically significant when the adjusted RRs were combined. Subgroup analysis stratified by the site of fracture suggested significant associations between MS and tibia fracture risk, femur fracture risk, hip fracture risk, pelvis fracture risk, vertebrae fracture risk, and humerus fracture risk. In the subgroup analysis by gender, female MS patients had increased fracture risk. When stratified by history of drug use, use of antidepressants, hypnotics/anxiolytics, anticonvulsants, and glucocorticoids increased the risk of fracture risk in MS patients. Conclusions. This meta-analysis demonstrated that MS was significantly associated with fracture risk.
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Baltimore in The Wire and Los Angeles in The Shield: Urban Landscapes in American Drama Series
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Alberto N. García
2017-07-01
Full Text Available The Shield (FX 2002-08 and The Wire (HBO 2002-08 are two of the most ever critically acclaimed TV-shows and they both can be seen as the finest developed film noir proposals produced in television. The Wire transcends the cop-show genre by offering a multilayered portrait of the whole city of Baltimore: from police work to drug dealing, getting through stevedores’ union corruption, tricks of local politics, problems of the school system and some unethical journalism practices. On the other, The Shield offers a breathtaking cop-show that features in the foreground the moral ambiguity that characterizes the noir genre. Both series display complementary realist strategies (a neorealist aesthetic in The Wire; a cinéma vérité pastiche in The Shield that highlight the importance of city landscape in their narrative. Baltimore and Los Angeles are portrayed not only as a dangerous and ruined physical places, but are also intertwined with moral and political issues in contemporary cities, such as race, class, political corruption, social disintegration, economical disparities, the limitations of the system of justice, the failure of the American dream and so on. The complex and expanded narrative of The Wire and The Shield, as Dimemberg has written for film noir genre, “remains well attuned to the violently fragmented spaces and times of the late-modern world”. Therefore, this article will focus on how The Wire and The Shield (and some of their TV heirs, such as Southland and Justified reflect and renew several topics related to the city in the film noir tradition: the sociopolitical effects of showing the ruins of the centripetal industrial metropolis, the inferences of filming in actual places, the dramatic presence of what Augé coined as “no-places”, the bachelardian opposition between home and city, or the streets as an urban jungle where danger lurks in every corner.
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Olson, J. R.; Crawford, J. H.; Fried, A.; Wisthaler, A.; Weinheimer, A. J.; Barrick, J. D.; Diskin, G. S.; Duncan, B. N.; Mikoviny, T.
2012-12-01
The first deployment for NASA's Earth Venture campaign DISCOVER-AQ (Deriving Information on Surface conditions from Column and Vertically Resolved Observations Relevant to Air Quality) took place over the Baltimore/Washington DC region during July of 2011. Observations of CH2O in the lowest kilometer (pressure-altitude) indicate that median concentrations can vary day to day by as much as 5 ppbv. Further, variability within a single day can correlate with a number of species, including H2O, temperature, isoprene, and/or CO. The NASA Langley photochemical box model is used to examine the dominant budget terms for CH2O during DISCOVER-AQ and to diagnose the drivers of the CH2O variability. Modeling results show that the source of CH2O is largely dominated by isoprene. However, the variability of CH2O within single flight days is rarely directly correlated to isoprene. Rather, most often, CH2O variability is correlated to the oxidative capacity of the atmosphere, defined by OH and driven by OH precursors such as H2O, O3 photolysis rates, and NO. Sensitivity model runs where isoprene is held constant to daily medians show excellent ability to predict both the overall CH2O concentration (dominated by isoprene) and the variability of CH2O throughout a day (driven by variations in oxidative capacity).
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38 CFR 75.115 - Risk analysis.
2010-07-01
... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Risk analysis. 75.115 Section 75.115 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS (CONTINUED) INFORMATION SECURITY MATTERS Data Breaches § 75.115 Risk analysis. If a data breach involving sensitive personal information that is processed or...
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A multi-stakeholder evaluation of the Baltimore City virtual supermarket program.
Lagisetty, Pooja; Flamm, Laura; Rak, Summer; Landgraf, Jessica; Heisler, Michele; Forman, Jane
2017-10-23
Increasing access to healthy foods and beverages in disadvantaged communities is a public health priority due to alarmingly high rates of obesity. The Virtual Supermarket Program (VSP) is a Baltimore City Health Department program that uses online grocery ordering to deliver food to low-income neighborhoods. This study evaluates stakeholder preferences and barriers of program implementation. This study assessed the feasibility, sustainability and efficacy of the VSP by surveying 93 customers and interviewing 14 programmatic stakeholders who had recently used the VSP or been involved with program design and implementation. We identified the following themes: The VSP addressed transportation barriers and food availability. The VSP impacted customers and the city by including improving food purchasing behavior, creating a food justice "brand for the city", and fostering a sense of community. Customers appreciated using Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits to pay for groceries, but policy changes are needed allow online processing of SNAP benefits. This evaluation summarizes lessons learned and serves as a guide to other public health leaders interested in developing similar programs. Provisions in the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Farm Bill 2014 allow for select grocers to pilot online transactions with SNAP benefits. If these pilots are efficacious, the VSP model could be easily disseminated.
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Common approach of risks analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Noviello, L.; Naviglio, A.
1996-01-01
Although, following the resolutions of the High German Court, the protection level of the human beings is an objective which can change in time, it is obvious that it is an important point when there is a risk for the population. This is true more particularly for the industrial plants whose possible accidents could affect the population. The accidents risk analysis indicates that there is no conceptual difference between the risks of a nuclear power plant and those of the other industrial plants as chemical plants, the gas distribution system and the hydraulic dams. A legislation analysis induced by the Seveso Directive for the industrial risks give some important indications which should always be followed. This work analyses more particularly the legislative situation in different European countries and identifies some of the most important characteristics. Indeed, for most of the countries, the situation is different and it is a later difficulties source for nuclear power plants. In order to strengthen this reasoning, this paper presents some preliminary results of an analysis of a nuclear power plant following the approach of other industrial plants. In conclusion, it will be necessary to analyse again the risks assessment approach for nuclear power plants because the real protection level of human beings in a country is determined by the less regulated of the dangerous industrial plants existing at the surroundings. (O.M.)
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Standardised risk analysis as a communication tool
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pluess, Ch.; Montanarini, M.; Bernauer, M.
1998-01-01
Full text of publication follows: several European countries require a risk analysis for the production, storage or transport a dangerous goods. This requirement imposes considerable administrative effort for some sectors of the industry. In order to minimize the effort of such studies, a generic risk analysis for an industrial sector proved to help. Standardised procedures can consequently be derived for efficient performance of the risk investigations. This procedure was successfully established in Switzerland for natural gas transmission lines and fossil fuel storage plants. The development process of the generic risk analysis involved an intense discussion between industry and authorities about methodology of assessment and the criteria of acceptance. This process finally led to scientific consistent modelling tools for risk analysis and to an improved communication from the industry to the authorities and the public. As a recent example, the Holland-Italy natural gas transmission pipeline is demonstrated, where this method was successfully employed. Although this pipeline traverses densely populated areas in Switzerland, using this established communication method, the risk problems could be solved without delaying the planning process. (authors)
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Introduction of the risk analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Campon, G.; Martinez, I.
2013-01-01
An introduction of risks analysis was given in the exposition which main issues were: food innocuousness, world, regional and national food context,change of paradigms, health definition, risk, codex, standardization, food chain role, trade agreement, codex alimentarius, food transmission diseases cost impact
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Risk Analysis Group annual progress report 1984
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
1985-06-01
The activities of the Risk Analysis Group at Risoe during 1984 are presented. These include descriptions in some detail of work on general development topics and risk analysis performed as contractor. (author)
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Risk-based decision analysis for groundwater operable units
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chiaramonte, G.R.
1995-01-01
This document proposes a streamlined approach and methodology for performing risk assessment in support of interim remedial measure (IRM) decisions involving the remediation of contaminated groundwater on the Hanford Site. This methodology, referred to as ''risk-based decision analysis,'' also supports the specification of target cleanup volumes and provides a basis for design and operation of the groundwater remedies. The risk-based decision analysis can be completed within a short time frame and concisely documented. The risk-based decision analysis is more versatile than the qualitative risk assessment (QRA), because it not only supports the need for IRMs, but also provides criteria for defining the success of the IRMs and provides the risk-basis for decisions on final remedies. For these reasons, it is proposed that, for groundwater operable units, the risk-based decision analysis should replace the more elaborate, costly, and time-consuming QRA
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How to Perform an Ethical Risk Analysis (eRA).
Hansson, Sven Ove
2018-02-26
Ethical analysis is often needed in the preparation of policy decisions on risk. A three-step method is proposed for performing an ethical risk analysis (eRA). In the first step, the people concerned are identified and categorized in terms of the distinct but compatible roles of being risk-exposed, a beneficiary, or a decisionmaker. In the second step, a more detailed classification of roles and role combinations is performed, and ethically problematic role combinations are identified. In the third step, further ethical deliberation takes place, with an emphasis on individual risk-benefit weighing, distributional analysis, rights analysis, and power analysis. Ethical issues pertaining to subsidiary risk roles, such as those of experts and journalists, are also treated in this phase. An eRA should supplement, not replace, a traditional risk analysis that puts emphasis on the probabilities and severities of undesirable events but does not cover ethical issues such as agency, interpersonal relationships, and justice. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.
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RISK ANALYSIS IN INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY AND COMMUNICATION OUTSOURCING
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Edmir Parada Vasques Prado
2011-12-01
Full Text Available This research aims at evaluating the risk analysis process in Information Technology and Communication (ICT outsourcing conducted by organizations of the private sector. The research is characterized by being a descriptive, quantitative and transversal type study, which was used the survey method. Data were collected through questionnaire, the sample is not random and we used a convenience sampling process. The research made contributions to understanding the risk analysis process in ICT services outsourcing, and identified statistically significant relationships between risk analysis, organization's size and its industry, and between risk analysis and diversity of outsourced services
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Risk-benefit analysis and public policy: a bibliography
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Clark, E.M.; Van Horn, A.J.
1976-11-01
Risk-benefit analysis has been implicitly practiced whenever decision-makers are confronted with decisions involving risks to life, health, or to the environment. Various methodologies have been developed to evaluate relevant criteria and to aid in assessing the impacts of alternative projects. Among these have been cost-benefit analysis, which has been widely used for project evaluation. However, in many cases it has been difficult to assign dollar costs to those criteria involving risks and benefits which are not now assigned explicit monetary values in our economic system. Hence, risk-benefit analysis has evolved to become more than merely an extension of cost-benefit analysis, and many methods have been applied to examine the trade-offs between risks and benefits. In addition, new scientific and statistical techniques have been developed for assessing current and future risks. The 950 references included in this bibliography are meant to suggest the breadth of those methodologies which have been applied to decisions involving risk.
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Risk-benefit analysis and public policy: a bibliography
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Clark, E.M.; Van Horn, A.J.
1976-11-01
Risk-benefit analysis has been implicitly practiced whenever decision-makers are confronted with decisions involving risks to life, health, or to the environment. Various methodologies have been developed to evaluate relevant criteria and to aid in assessing the impacts of alternative projects. Among these have been cost-benefit analysis, which has been widely used for project evaluation. However, in many cases it has been difficult to assign dollar costs to those criteria involving risks and benefits which are not now assigned explicit monetary values in our economic system. Hence, risk-benefit analysis has evolved to become more than merely an extension of cost-benefit analysis, and many methods have been applied to examine the trade-offs between risks and benefits. In addition, new scientific and statistical techniques have been developed for assessing current and future risks. The 950 references included in this bibliography are meant to suggest the breadth of those methodologies which have been applied to decisions involving risk
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Alverbro, Karin
2010-01-01
Many decision-making situations today affect humans and the environment. In practice, many such decisions are made without an overall view and prioritise one or other of the two areas. Now and then these two areas of regulation come into conflict, e.g. the best alternative as regards environmental considerations is not always the best from a human safety perspective and vice versa. This report was prepared within a major project with the aim of developing a framework in which both the environmental aspects and the human safety aspects are integrated, and decisions can be made taking both fields into consideration. The safety risks have to be analysed in order to be successfully avoided and one way of doing this is to use different kinds of risk analysis methods. There is an abundance of existing methods to choose from and new methods are constantly being developed. This report describes some of the risk analysis methods currently available for analysing safety and examines the relationships between them. The focus here is mainly on human safety aspects
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Beyond the Floodplain: Drivers of Flood Risk in Coastal Cities
Rosenzweig, B.; McPhearson, T.; Rosi, E. J.
2017-12-01
While the catastrophic impacts of Hurricane Katrina increased awareness of coastal flood risk, conventional approaches to flood risk assessment do not adequately represent the drivers of flood risk in the unique, highly engineered landscape of dense cities. We review the recent (1996-2016) history of flooding events and current regional climate change projection for 4 diverse coastal cities in the United States: San Juan, Miami, Baltimore and New York. Our review suggests that while all 4 of these cities face increased risk from direct coastal flooding with climate change, pluvial flooding will be an additional, important driver of risk that is currently poorly quantified. Unlike other types of flooding, pluvial flood risk is not limited to a contiguous riverine or coastal floodplain, but is instead driven by interactions between spatially variable geophysical drivers (intense rainfall, shallow groundwater, and influent tidal water), social drivers (patterns of land use) and technical drivers (urban stormwater and coastal infrastructure). We discuss approaches for quantitative assessment of pluvial flood risk, the challenges presented by the lack of data on geophysical flooding drivers in dense cities, and opportunities for integrated research to provide the scientific information needed by practitioners.
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Flood Risk Assessment Based On Security Deficit Analysis
Beck, J.; Metzger, R.; Hingray, B.; Musy, A.
Risk is a human perception: a given risk may be considered as acceptable or unac- ceptable depending on the group that has to face that risk. Flood risk analysis of- ten estimates economic losses from damages, but neglects the question of accept- able/unacceptable risk. With input from land use managers, politicians and other stakeholders, risk assessment based on security deficit analysis determines objects with unacceptable risk and their degree of security deficit. Such a risk assessment methodology, initially developed by the Swiss federal authorities, is illustrated by its application on a reach of the Alzette River (Luxembourg) in the framework of the IRMA-SPONGE FRHYMAP project. Flood risk assessment always involves a flood hazard analysis, an exposed object vulnerability analysis, and an analysis combing the results of these two previous analyses. The flood hazard analysis was done with the quasi-2D hydraulic model FldPln to produce flood intensity maps. Flood intensity was determined by the water height and velocity. Object data for the vulnerability analysis, provided by the Luxembourg government, were classified according to their potential damage. Potential damage is expressed in terms of direct, human life and secondary losses. A thematic map was produced to show the object classification. Protection goals were then attributed to the object classes. Protection goals are assigned in terms of an acceptable flood intensity for a certain flood frequency. This is where input from land use managers and politicians comes into play. The perception of risk in the re- gion or country influences the protection goal assignment. Protection goals as used in Switzerland were used in this project. Thematic maps showing the protection goals of each object in the case study area for a given flood frequency were produced. Com- parison between an object's protection goal and the intensity of the flood that touched the object determine the acceptability of the risk and the
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Bhambhani, Y; Esmail, S; Brintnell, S
1994-01-01
The Baltimore Therapeutic Equipment (BTE) work simulator is routinely used by occupational therapists in functional capacity evaluation. Currently, there is a lack of normative data for various attachments on this instrument. The purposes of this study were to (a) establish norms for the biomechanical and physiological responses during three tasks on the BTE work simulator, namely, wheel-turn, push-pull, and overhead-reach; (b) compare these responses during the three tasks, and (c) examine the interrelationships of these responses during the tasks. Twenty healthy men completed five testing sessions: (a) task familiarization on the BTE work simulator to identify the work intensity, which was perceived as hard on the Borg scale; (b) an incremental arm ergometer exercise test to determine their peak oxygen uptake (pVO2) and peak heart rate (pHR); and (c) one of the three tasks on the BTE work simulator for 4 min in each of the next three sessions. Analysis of variance indicated that torque, work, and power during the overhead-reach were significantly higher (p = .000) compared with the wheel-turn and push-pull tasks. However, no significant differences (p > .05) were observed among the tasks for the VO2 and HR, which were approximately 50% and 70% of pVO2 and pHR respectively. Although there was a significant relationship (p batteries, and that there is no consistent relationship between cardiorespiratory fitness and performance of various tasks on the BTE work simulator.
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Analysis and management of risks experienced in tunnel construction
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Cagatay Pamukcu
2015-12-01
Full Text Available In this study, first of all, the definitions of "risk", "risk analysis", "risk assessment" and "risk management" were made to avoid any confusions about these terms and significance of risk analysis and management in engineering projects was emphasized. Then, both qualitative and quantitative risk analysis techniques were mentioned and within the scope of the study, Event Tree Analysis method was selected in order to analyze the risks regarding TBM (Tunnel Boring Machine operations in tunnel construction. After all hazards that would be encountered during tunnel construction by TBM method had been investigated, those hazards were undergoing a Preliminary Hazard Analysis to sort out and prioritize the risks with high scores. When the risk scores were taken into consideration, it was seen that the hazards with high risk scores could be classified into 4 groups which are excavation + support induced accidents, accidents stemming from geologic conditions, auxiliary works, and project contract. According to these four classified groups of initiating events, Event Tree Analysis was conducted by taking into care 4 countermeasures apart from each other. Finally, the quantitative and qualitative consequences of Event Tree Analyses, which were undertaken for all initiating events, were investigated and interpreted together by making comparisons and referring to previous studies.
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A multi-stakeholder evaluation of the Baltimore City virtual supermarket program
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Pooja Lagisetty
2017-10-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Increasing access to healthy foods and beverages in disadvantaged communities is a public health priority due to alarmingly high rates of obesity. The Virtual Supermarket Program (VSP is a Baltimore City Health Department program that uses online grocery ordering to deliver food to low-income neighborhoods. This study evaluates stakeholder preferences and barriers of program implementation. Methods This study assessed the feasibility, sustainability and efficacy of the VSP by surveying 93 customers and interviewing 14 programmatic stakeholders who had recently used the VSP or been involved with program design and implementation. Results We identified the following themes: The VSP addressed transportation barriers and food availability. The VSP impacted customers and the city by including improving food purchasing behavior, creating a food justice “brand for the city”, and fostering a sense of community. Customers appreciated using Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP benefits to pay for groceries, but policy changes are needed allow online processing of SNAP benefits. Conclusions This evaluation summarizes lessons learned and serves as a guide to other public health leaders interested in developing similar programs. Provisions in the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA Farm Bill 2014 allow for select grocers to pilot online transactions with SNAP benefits. If these pilots are efficacious, the VSP model could be easily disseminated.
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49 CFR 260.17 - Credit risk premium analysis.
2010-10-01
... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Credit risk premium analysis. 260.17 Section 260... Financial Assistance § 260.17 Credit risk premium analysis. (a) When Federal appropriations are not available to cover the total subsidy cost, the Administrator will determine the Credit Risk Premium...
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Computational Aspects of Dam Risk Analysis: Findings and Challenges
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ignacio Escuder-Bueno
2016-09-01
Full Text Available In recent years, risk analysis techniques have proved to be a useful tool to inform dam safety management. This paper summarizes the outcomes of three themes related to dam risk analysis discussed in the Benchmark Workshops organized by the International Commission on Large Dams Technical Committee on “Computational Aspects of Analysis and Design of Dams.” In the 2011 Benchmark Workshop, estimation of the probability of failure of a gravity dam for the sliding failure mode was discussed. Next, in 2013, the discussion focused on the computational challenges of the estimation of consequences in dam risk analysis. Finally, in 2015, the probability of sliding and overtopping in an embankment was analyzed. These Benchmark Workshops have allowed a complete review of numerical aspects for dam risk analysis, showing that risk analysis methods are a very useful tool to analyze the risk of dam systems, including downstream consequence assessments and the uncertainty of structural models.
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Haer, Toon; Botzen, W J Wouter; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen C J H
2017-10-01
Recent studies showed that climate change and socioeconomic trends are expected to increase flood risks in many regions. However, in these studies, human behavior is commonly assumed to be constant, which neglects interaction and feedback loops between human and environmental systems. This neglect of human adaptation leads to a misrepresentation of flood risk. This article presents an agent-based model that incorporates human decision making in flood risk analysis. In particular, household investments in loss-reducing measures are examined under three economic decision models: (1) expected utility theory, which is the traditional economic model of rational agents; (2) prospect theory, which takes account of bounded rationality; and (3) a prospect theory model, which accounts for changing risk perceptions and social interactions through a process of Bayesian updating. We show that neglecting human behavior in flood risk assessment studies can result in a considerable misestimation of future flood risk, which is in our case study an overestimation of a factor two. Furthermore, we show how behavior models can support flood risk analysis under different behavioral assumptions, illustrating the need to include the dynamic adaptive human behavior of, for instance, households, insurers, and governments. The method presented here provides a solid basis for exploring human behavior and the resulting flood risk with respect to low-probability/high-impact risks. © 2016 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.
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Putting problem formulation at the forefront of GMO risk analysis.
Tepfer, Mark; Racovita, Monica; Craig, Wendy
2013-01-01
When applying risk assessment and the broader process of risk analysis to decisions regarding the dissemination of genetically modified organisms (GMOs), the process has a tendency to become remarkably complex. Further, as greater numbers of countries consider authorising the large-scale dissemination of GMOs, and as GMOs with more complex traits reach late stages of development, there has been increasing concern about the burden posed by the complexity of risk analysis. We present here an improved approach for GMO risk analysis that gives a central role to problem formulation. Further, the risk analysis strategy has been clarified and simplified in order to make rigorously scientific risk assessment and risk analysis more broadly accessible to diverse stakeholder groups.
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Streamlining project delivery through risk analysis.
2015-08-01
Project delivery is a significant area of concern and is subject to several risks throughout Plan Development : Process (PDP). These risks are attributed to major areas of project development, such as environmental : analysis, right-of-way (ROW) acqu...
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Reliability and risk analysis methods research plan
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
1984-10-01
This document presents a plan for reliability and risk analysis methods research to be performed mainly by the Reactor Risk Branch (RRB), Division of Risk Analysis and Operations (DRAO), Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research. It includes those activities of other DRAO branches which are very closely related to those of the RRB. Related or interfacing programs of other divisions, offices and organizations are merely indicated. The primary use of this document is envisioned as an NRC working document, covering about a 3-year period, to foster better coordination in reliability and risk analysis methods development between the offices of Nuclear Regulatory Research and Nuclear Reactor Regulation. It will also serve as an information source for contractors and others to more clearly understand the objectives, needs, programmatic activities and interfaces together with the overall logical structure of the program
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Multi-hazard risk analysis for management strategies
Kappes, M.; Keiler, M.; Bell, R.; Glade, T.
2009-04-01
Risk management is very often operating in a reactive way, responding to an event, instead of proactive starting with risk analysis and building up the whole process of risk evaluation, prevention, event management and regeneration. Since damage and losses from natural hazards raise continuously more and more studies, concepts (e.g. Switzerland or South Tyrol-Bolozano) and software packages (e.g. ARMAGEDOM, HAZUS or RiskScape) are developed to guide, standardize and facilitate the risk analysis. But these approaches focus on different aspects and are mostly closely adapted to the situation (legislation, organization of the administration, specific processes etc.) of the specific country or region. We propose in this study the development of a flexible methodology for multi-hazard risk analysis, identifying the stakeholders and their needs, processes and their characteristics, modeling approaches as well as incoherencies occurring by combining all these different aspects. Based on this concept a flexible software package will be established consisting of ArcGIS as central base and being complemented by various modules for hazard modeling, vulnerability assessment and risk calculation. Not all modules will be developed newly but taken from the current state-of-the-art and connected or integrated into ArcGIS. For this purpose two study sites, Valtellina in Italy and Bacelonnette in France, were chosen and the hazards types debris flows, rockfalls, landslides, avalanches and floods are planned to be included in the tool for a regional multi-hazard risk analysis. Since the central idea of this tool is its flexibility this will only be a first step, in the future further processes and scales can be included and the instrument thus adapted to any study site.
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Environmental risk analysis of hazardous material rail transportation
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Saat, Mohd Rapik, E-mail: mohdsaat@illinois.edu [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1243 Newmark Civil Engineering Laboratory, 205 North Mathews Avenue, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); Werth, Charles J.; Schaeffer, David [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1243 Newmark Civil Engineering Laboratory, 205 North Mathews Avenue, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); Yoon, Hongkyu [Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM 87123 (United States); Barkan, Christopher P.L. [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1243 Newmark Civil Engineering Laboratory, 205 North Mathews Avenue, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States)
2014-01-15
Highlights: • Comprehensive, nationwide risk assessment of hazardous material rail transportation. • Application of a novel environmental (i.e. soil and groundwater) consequence model. • Cleanup cost and total shipment distance are the most significant risk factors. • Annual risk varies from $20,000 to $560,000 for different products. • Provides information on the risk cost associated with specific product shipments. -- Abstract: An important aspect of railroad environmental risk management involves tank car transportation of hazardous materials. This paper describes a quantitative, environmental risk analysis of rail transportation of a group of light, non-aqueous-phase liquid (LNAPL) chemicals commonly transported by rail in North America. The Hazardous Materials Transportation Environmental Consequence Model (HMTECM) was used in conjunction with a geographic information system (GIS) analysis of environmental characteristics to develop probabilistic estimates of exposure to different spill scenarios along the North American rail network. The risk analysis incorporated the estimated clean-up cost developed using the HMTECM, route-specific probability distributions of soil type and depth to groundwater, annual traffic volume, railcar accident rate, and tank car safety features, to estimate the nationwide annual risk of transporting each product. The annual risk per car-mile (car-km) and per ton-mile (ton-km) was also calculated to enable comparison between chemicals and to provide information on the risk cost associated with shipments of these products. The analysis and the methodology provide a quantitative approach that will enable more effective management of the environmental risk of transporting hazardous materials.
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Environmental risk analysis of hazardous material rail transportation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Saat, Mohd Rapik; Werth, Charles J.; Schaeffer, David; Yoon, Hongkyu; Barkan, Christopher P.L.
2014-01-01
Highlights: • Comprehensive, nationwide risk assessment of hazardous material rail transportation. • Application of a novel environmental (i.e. soil and groundwater) consequence model. • Cleanup cost and total shipment distance are the most significant risk factors. • Annual risk varies from $20,000 to $560,000 for different products. • Provides information on the risk cost associated with specific product shipments. -- Abstract: An important aspect of railroad environmental risk management involves tank car transportation of hazardous materials. This paper describes a quantitative, environmental risk analysis of rail transportation of a group of light, non-aqueous-phase liquid (LNAPL) chemicals commonly transported by rail in North America. The Hazardous Materials Transportation Environmental Consequence Model (HMTECM) was used in conjunction with a geographic information system (GIS) analysis of environmental characteristics to develop probabilistic estimates of exposure to different spill scenarios along the North American rail network. The risk analysis incorporated the estimated clean-up cost developed using the HMTECM, route-specific probability distributions of soil type and depth to groundwater, annual traffic volume, railcar accident rate, and tank car safety features, to estimate the nationwide annual risk of transporting each product. The annual risk per car-mile (car-km) and per ton-mile (ton-km) was also calculated to enable comparison between chemicals and to provide information on the risk cost associated with shipments of these products. The analysis and the methodology provide a quantitative approach that will enable more effective management of the environmental risk of transporting hazardous materials
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Mmari, Kristin; Moreau, Caroline; Gibbs, Susannah Emily; De Meyer, Sara; Michielsen, Kristien; Kabiru, Caroline W; Bello, Bamidele; Fatusi, Adesegun; Lou, Chaohua; Zuo, Xiayun; Yu, Chunyan; Al-Attar, Ghada S T; El-Gibaly, Omaima
2017-10-18
This analysis is based on data from the Global Early Adolescent Study, which aims to understand the factors that predispose young people aged 10-14 years to positive or negative health trajectories. Specifically, interview transcripts from 202 adolescents and 191 parents across six diverse urban sites (Baltimore, Ghent, Nairobi, Ile Ife, Assuit and Shanghai) were analysed to compare the perceived risks associated with entering adolescence and how these risks differed by gender. Findings reveal that in all sites except Ghent, both young people and their parents perceived that girls face greater risks related to their sexual and reproductive health, and because of their sexual development, were perceived to require more protection. In contrast, when boys grow up, they and their parents recognised that their independence broadened, and parents felt that boys were strong enough to protect themselves. This has negative consequences as well, as boys were perceived to be more prone to risks associated with street violence and peer pressure. These differences in perceptions of vulnerability and related mobility are markers of a gender system that separates young women and men's roles, responsibilities and behaviours in ways that widen gender power imbalance with lifelong social and health consequences for people of both sexes.
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RISK ANALYSIS APPLIED IN OIL EXPLORATION AND PRODUCTION
African Journals Online (AJOL)
ES Obe
aDepartment of Civil Engineering, University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Enugu State, Nigeria. ... The analysis in this work is ... risk analysis, oil field, risk management, projects, investment opportunity. 1. .... own merit but since the company has limited.
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Bettencourt, Amie F; Gross, Deborah; Ho, Grace; Perrin, Nancy
2018-02-01
Social, emotional, and behavioral skills are foundational to learning and long-term success. However, poverty and exposure to adverse childhood experiences reduce the chances of children entering kindergarten socially-behaviorally ready to learn. This study examined the unique impact of 5-year-old children (N = 11,412) entering kindergarten not socially-behaviorally ready on three costly school outcomes by fourth grade in Baltimore City Public Schools: being retained in grade, receiving services and supports through an IEP or 504 plan, and being suspended/expelled. Controlling for all other types of school readiness, students not identified as socially-behaviorally ready for kindergarten were more likely to experience all three school outcomes. Findings underscore the importance of early prevention and intervention strategies targeting parents and social-behavioral readiness skills during the first 5 years of life.
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Cyber Risk Management for Critical Infrastructure: A Risk Analysis Model and Three Case Studies.
Paté-Cornell, M-Elisabeth; Kuypers, Marshall; Smith, Matthew; Keller, Philip
2018-02-01
Managing cyber security in an organization involves allocating the protection budget across a spectrum of possible options. This requires assessing the benefits and the costs of these options. The risk analyses presented here are statistical when relevant data are available, and system-based for high-consequence events that have not happened yet. This article presents, first, a general probabilistic risk analysis framework for cyber security in an organization to be specified. It then describes three examples of forward-looking analyses motivated by recent cyber attacks. The first one is the statistical analysis of an actual database, extended at the upper end of the loss distribution by a Bayesian analysis of possible, high-consequence attack scenarios that may happen in the future. The second is a systems analysis of cyber risks for a smart, connected electric grid, showing that there is an optimal level of connectivity. The third is an analysis of sequential decisions to upgrade the software of an existing cyber security system or to adopt a new one to stay ahead of adversaries trying to find their way in. The results are distributions of losses to cyber attacks, with and without some considered countermeasures in support of risk management decisions based both on past data and anticipated incidents. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.
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NSGIC State | GIS Inventory — Road Bridges and Culverts dataset current as of 2010. MDTA Culverts, Culverts on John F. Kennedy Highway (I95), Baltimore Harbor Tunnel Throughway, Francis Scott Key...
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Urban flooding and health risk analysis by use of quantitative microbial risk assessment
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Andersen, Signe Tanja
D thesis is to identify the limitations and possibilities for optimising microbial risk assessments of urban flooding through more evidence-based solutions, including quantitative microbial data and hydrodynamic water quality models. The focus falls especially on the problem of data needs and the causes......, but also when wading through a flooded area. The results in this thesis have brought microbial risk assessments one step closer to more uniform and repeatable risk analysis by using actual and relevant measured data and hydrodynamic water quality models to estimate the risk from flooding caused...... are expected to increase in the future. To ensure public health during extreme rainfall, solutions are needed, but limited knowledge on microbial water quality, and related health risks, makes it difficult to implement microbial risk analysis as a part of the basis for decision making. The main aim of this Ph...
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Probabilistic risk analysis in chemical engineering
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Schmalz, F.
1991-01-01
In risk analysis in the chemical industry, recognising potential risks is considered more important than assessing their quantitative extent. Even in assessing risks, emphasis is not on the probability involved but on the possible extent. Qualitative assessment has proved valuable here. Probabilistic methods are used in individual cases where the wide implications make it essential to be able to assess the reliability of safety precautions. In this case, assessment therefore centres on the reliability of technical systems and not on the extent of a chemical risk. 7 figs
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Method for environmental risk analysis (MIRA) revision 2007
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
2007-04-01
OLF's instruction manual for carrying out environmental risk analyses provides a united approach and a common framework for environmental risk assessments. This is based on the best information available. The manual implies standardizations of a series of parameters, input data and partial analyses that are included in the environmental risk analysis. Environmental risk analyses carried out according to the MIRA method will thus be comparable between fields and between companies. In this revision an update of the text in accordance with today's practice for environmental risk analyses and prevailing regulations is emphasized. Moreover, method adjustments for especially protected beach habitats have been introduced, as well as a general method for estimating environmental risk concerning fish. Emphasis has also been put on improving environmental risk analysis' possibilities to contribute to a better management of environmental risk in the companies (ml)
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Evaluating the risks of clinical research: direct comparative analysis.
Rid, Annette; Abdoler, Emily; Roberson-Nay, Roxann; Pine, Daniel S; Wendler, David
2014-09-01
Many guidelines and regulations allow children and adolescents to be enrolled in research without the prospect of clinical benefit when it poses minimal risk. However, few systematic methods exist to determine when research risks are minimal. This situation has led to significant variation in minimal risk judgments, raising concern that some children are not being adequately protected. To address this concern, we describe a new method for implementing the widely endorsed "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk. This standard defines research risks as minimal when they do not exceed the risks posed by daily life activities or routine examinations. This study employed a conceptual and normative analysis, and use of an illustrative example. Different risks are composed of the same basic elements: Type, likelihood, and magnitude of harm. Hence, one can compare the risks of research and the risks of daily life by comparing the respective basic elements with each other. We use this insight to develop a systematic method, direct comparative analysis, for implementing the "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk. The method offers a way of evaluating research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities, such as the risk of experiencing anxiety, stress, or other psychological harm. We thus illustrate how direct comparative analysis can be applied in practice by using it to evaluate whether the anxiety induced by a respiratory CO2 challenge poses minimal or greater than minimal risks in children and adolescents. Direct comparative analysis is a systematic method for applying the "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk to research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities. It thereby offers a method to protect children and adolescents in research, while ensuring that important studies are not blocked because of unwarranted concerns about research risks.
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Risk Analysis for Unintentional Slide Deployment During Airline Operations.
Ayra, Eduardo S; Insua, David Ríos; Castellanos, María Eugenia; Larbi, Lydia
2015-09-01
We present a risk analysis undertaken to mitigate problems in relation to the unintended deployment of slides under normal operations within a commercial airline. This type of incident entails relevant costs for the airline industry. After assessing the likelihood and severity of its consequences, we conclude that such risks need to be managed. We then evaluate the effectiveness of various countermeasures, describing and justifying the chosen ones. We also discuss several issues faced when implementing and communicating the proposed measures, thus fully illustrating the risk analysis process. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fuente Prieto, I.; Alonso, P.; Carretero Fernandino, J. A.
2000-01-01
The Nuclear Safety Council's requirement that Spanish power plants comply with the requirements of the Maintenance Rule associated with plant risk assessment during power operation, arising from the partial unavailability of systems due to the maintenance activities, has led to need for additional tools to facilitate compliance with said requirements. While the impact on risk produced by individual equipment unavailabilities can easily be evaluated, either qualitatively or quantitatively, the process becomes more complicated when un programmed unavailabilities simultaneously occur in various systems, making it necessary to evaluate their functional impact. It is especially complex in the case of support systems that can affect the functionality of multiple systems. In view of the above, a computer application has been developed that is capable of providing the operator with quick answers based on the specific plant model in order to allow fast risk assessment using the information compiled as part of the Probabilistic Safety Analysis. The paper describes the most important characteristics of this application and the basic design requirements of the MARE Risk Monitor. (Author)
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Bayesian-network-based safety risk analysis in construction projects
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zhang, Limao; Wu, Xianguo; Skibniewski, Miroslaw J.; Zhong, Jingbing; Lu, Yujie
2014-01-01
This paper presents a systemic decision support approach for safety risk analysis under uncertainty in tunnel construction. Fuzzy Bayesian Networks (FBN) is used to investigate causal relationships between tunnel-induced damage and its influential variables based upon the risk/hazard mechanism analysis. Aiming to overcome limitations on the current probability estimation, an expert confidence indicator is proposed to ensure the reliability of the surveyed data for fuzzy probability assessment of basic risk factors. A detailed fuzzy-based inference procedure is developed, which has a capacity of implementing deductive reasoning, sensitivity analysis and abductive reasoning. The “3σ criterion” is adopted to calculate the characteristic values of a triangular fuzzy number in the probability fuzzification process, and the α-weighted valuation method is adopted for defuzzification. The construction safety analysis progress is extended to the entire life cycle of risk-prone events, including the pre-accident, during-construction continuous and post-accident control. A typical hazard concerning the tunnel leakage in the construction of Wuhan Yangtze Metro Tunnel in China is presented as a case study, in order to verify the applicability of the proposed approach. The results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed approach and its application potential. A comparison of advantages and disadvantages between FBN and fuzzy fault tree analysis (FFTA) as risk analysis tools is also conducted. The proposed approach can be used to provide guidelines for safety analysis and management in construction projects, and thus increase the likelihood of a successful project in a complex environment. - Highlights: • A systemic Bayesian network based approach for safety risk analysis is developed. • An expert confidence indicator for probability fuzzification is proposed. • Safety risk analysis progress is extended to entire life cycle of risk-prone events. • A typical
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On the validation of risk analysis-A commentary
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rosqvist, Tony
2010-01-01
Aven and Heide (2009) [1] provided interesting views on the reliability and validation of risk analysis. The four validation criteria presented are contrasted with modelling features related to the relative frequency-based and Bayesian approaches to risk analysis. In this commentary I would like to bring forth some issues on validation that partly confirm and partly suggest changes in the interpretation of the introduced validation criteria-especially, in the context of low probability-high consequence systems. The mental model of an expert in assessing probabilities is argued to be a key notion in understanding the validation of a risk analysis.
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Quantitative risk assessment using the capacity-demand analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Morgenroth, M.; Donnelly, C.R.; Westermann, G.D.; Huang, J.H.S.; Lam, T.M.
1999-01-01
The hydroelectric industry's recognition of the importance of avoiding unexpected failure, or forced outages, led to the development of probabilistic, or risk-based, methods in order to attempt to quantify exposures. Traditionally, such analysis has been carried out by qualitative assessments, relying on experience and sound engineering judgment to determine the optimum time to maintain, repair or replace a part or system. Depending on the nature of the problem, however, and the level of experience of those included in the decision making process, it is difficult to find a balance between acting proactively and accepting some amount of risk. The development of a practical means for establishing the probability of failure of any part or system, based on the determination of the statistical distribution of engineering properties such as acting stresses, is discussed. The capacity-demand analysis methodology, coupled with probablistic, risk-based analysis, permits all the factors associated with a decision to rehabilitate or replace a part, including the risks associated with the timing of the decision, to be assessed in a transparent and defendable manner. The methodology does not eliminate judgment altogether, but does move it from the level of estimating the risk of failure to the lower level of estimating variability in material properties, uncertainty in loading, and the uncertainties inherent in any engineering analysis. The method was successfully used in 1998 to carry out a comprehensive, economic risk analysis for the entire water conveyance system of a 90 year old hydropower station. The analysis included a number of diverse parts ranging from rock slopes and aging steel and concrete conduits, and the method allowed a rational assessment of the risks associated with reach of these varied parts to be determined, permitting the essential remedial works to be prioritized. 14 refs., 4 figs
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cottrell, W.D.; Foley, R.D.; Johnson, C.A.
1989-07-01
The W.R. Grace Company, Davison Chemical Division, conducted developmental research and extraction of thorium from monazite ore at its Curtis Bay facility in Baltimore, Maryland, during the 1950s under contract to the Atomic Energy Commission (AEC). Only one of the numerous buildings on the site was used for these operations. A 1979 aerial survey of the site for the Department of Energy (DOE) indicated that a comprehensive ground survey was required to determine whether or not any contamination remained from the AEC activities in that building. A radiological scoping survey performed later that year for DOE by a team from the Measurement Applications and Development Group of the Health and Safety Research Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), disclosed surface contamination (alpha) levels in excess of DOE criteria on all five levels of the building. As a result of this finding, two additional surveys were performed in 1986 by ORNL at the request of DOE to evaluate any present or potential health risk. They are detailed in this report. The results of the 1986 surveys revealed several areas having elevated levels of radiation as a result of significant quantities of thorium on some building surfaces such as floors and ceiling beams. Most areas were small spots and in locations of low occupancy; thus, the possibility for significant exposure to workers was judged to be low. To confirm this evaluation, annual radiation exposure estimates for workers frequenting the few, larger contaminated areas on the site were derived using ORNL survey data and occupancy factors provided by the W.R. Grace Company. Estimates ranged from 27 to 41 mrem/yr or a maximum of 41% of the basic dose limit of 100 mrem/yr for members of the general public. 2 refs., 14 figs., 8 tabs
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Luo, Pengcheng; Hu, Yang
2013-01-01
During system operation, the environmental, operational and usage conditions are time-varying, which causes the fluctuations of the system state variables (SSVs). These fluctuations change the accidents’ probabilities and then result in the system risk evolution (SRE). This inherent relation makes it feasible to realize risk control by monitoring the SSVs in real time, herein, the quantitative analysis of SRE is essential. Besides, some events in the process of SRE are critical to system risk, because they act like the “demarcative points” of safety and accident, and this characteristic makes each of them a key point of risk control. Therefore, analysis of SRE and identification of risk critical events (RCEs) are remarkably meaningful to ensure the system to operate safely. In this context, an event sequence diagram (ESD) based method of SRE analysis and the related Monte Carlo solution are presented; RCE and risk sensitive variable (RSV) are defined, and the corresponding identification methods are also proposed. Finally, the proposed approaches are exemplified with an accident scenario of an aircraft getting into the icing region
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Jing, Wenjun; Zhao, Yan
2018-02-01
Stability is an important part of geotechnical engineering research. The operating experiences of underground storage caverns in salt rock all around the world show that the stability of the caverns is the key problem of safe operation. Currently, the combination of theoretical analysis and numerical simulation are the mainly adopts method of reserve stability analysis. This paper introduces the concept of risk into the stability analysis of underground geotechnical structure, and studies the instability of underground storage cavern in salt rock from the perspective of risk analysis. Firstly, the definition and classification of cavern instability risk is proposed, and the damage mechanism is analyzed from the mechanical angle. Then the main stability evaluating indicators of cavern instability risk are proposed, and an evaluation method of cavern instability risk is put forward. Finally, the established cavern instability risk assessment system is applied to the analysis and prediction of cavern instability risk after 30 years of operation in a proposed storage cavern group in the Huai’an salt mine. This research can provide a useful theoretical base for the safe operation and management of underground storage caverns in salt rock.
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Analysis of risk factors and risk assessment for ischemic stroke recurrence
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xiu-ying LONG
2016-08-01
Full Text Available Objective To screen the risk factors for recurrence of ischemic stroke and to assess the risk of recurrence. Methods Essen Stroke Risk Score (ESRS was used to evaluate the risk of recurrence in 176 patients with ischemic stroke (96 cases of first onset and 80 cases of recurrence. Univariate and multivariate stepwise Logistic regression analysis was used to screen risk factors for recurrence of ischemic stroke. Results There were significant differences between first onset group and recurrence group on age, the proportion of > 75 years old, hypertension, diabetes, coronary heart disease, peripheral angiopathy, transient ischemic attack (TIA or ischemic stroke, drinking and ESRS score (P < 0.05, for all. First onset group included one case of ESRS 0 (1.04%, 8 cases of 1 (8.33%, 39 cases of 2 (40.63%, 44 cases of 3 (45.83%, 4 cases of 4 (4.17%. Recurrence group included 2 cases of ESRS 3 (2.50%, 20 cases of 4 (25% , 37 cases of 5 (46.25% , 18 cases of 6 (22.50% , 3 cases of 7 (3.75% . There was significant difference between 2 groups (Z = -11.376, P = 0.000. Logistic regression analysis showed ESRS > 3 score was independent risk factor for recurrence of ischemic stroke (OR = 31.324, 95%CI: 3.934-249.430; P = 0.001. Conclusions ESRS > 3 score is the independent risk factor for recurrence of ischemic stroke. It is important to strengthen risk assessment of recurrence of ischemic stroke. To screen and control risk factors is the key to secondary prevention of ischemic stroke. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1672-6731.2016.07.011
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Risk analysis of industrial plants operation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hubert, Philippe
1989-12-01
This study examines the possibilities of systematic technology risk analysis in view of territorial management (city, urban community, region), including chronic and accidental risks. The objective was to relate this evaluation with those done for permanent water and air pollution. Risk management for pollution are done for a long time. A number of studies were done in urban communities and regions both for air and water pollution. The second objective is related to management of industrial risks: nuclear, petrochemical, transport of hazardous material, pipelines, etc. At the beginning, three possibilities of effects are taken into account: human health, economic aspect and water, and possibilities of evaluation are identified. Elements of risk identification are presented for quantification of results [fr
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[Survival analysis with competing risks: estimating failure probability].
Llorca, Javier; Delgado-Rodríguez, Miguel
2004-01-01
To show the impact of competing risks of death on survival analysis. We provide an example of survival time without chronic rejection after heart transplantation, where death before rejection acts as a competing risk. Using a computer simulation, we compare the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the multiple decrement model. The Kaplan-Meier method overestimated the probability of rejection. Next, we illustrate the use of the multiple decrement model to analyze secondary end points (in our example: death after rejection). Finally, we discuss Kaplan-Meier assumptions and why they fail in the presence of competing risks. Survival analysis should be adjusted for competing risks of death to avoid overestimation of the risk of rejection produced with the Kaplan-Meier method.
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Quantitative risk analysis of a space shuttle subsystem
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Frank, M.V.
1989-01-01
This paper reports that in an attempt to investigate methods for risk management other than qualitative analysis techniques, NASA has funded pilot study quantitative risk analyses for space shuttle subsystems. The authors performed one such study of two shuttle subsystems with McDonnell Douglas Astronautics Company. The subsystems were the auxiliary power units (APU) on the orbiter, and the hydraulic power units on the solid rocket booster. The technology and results of the APU study are presented in this paper. Drawing from a rich in-flight database as well as from a wealth of tests and analyses, the study quantitatively assessed the risk of APU-initiated scenarios on the shuttle during all phases of a flight mission. Damage states of interest were loss of crew/vehicle, aborted mission, and launch scrub. A quantitative risk analysis approach to deciding on important items for risk management was contrasted with the current NASA failure mode and effects analysis/critical item list approach
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Process Evaluation of a Comprehensive Supermarket Intervention in a Low-Income Baltimore Community.
Lee, Ryan M; Rothstein, Jessica D; Gergen, Jessica; Zachary, Drew A; Smith, Joyce C; Palmer, Anne M; Gittelsohn, Joel; Surkan, Pamela J
2015-11-01
Supermarket-based interventions are one approach to improving the local food environment and reducing obesity and chronic disease in low-income populations. We implemented a multicomponent intervention that aimed to reduce environmental barriers to healthy food purchasing in a supermarket in Southwest Baltimore. The intervention, Eat Right-Live Well! used: shelf labels and in-store displays promoting healthy foods, sales and promotions on healthy foods, in-store taste tests, increasing healthy food products, community outreach events to promote the intervention, and employee training. We evaluated program implementation through store environment, taste test session, and community event evaluation forms as well as an Employee Impact Questionnaire. The stocking, labeling, and advertising of promoted foods were implemented with high and moderate fidelity. Taste test sessions were implemented with moderate reach and low dose. Community outreach events were implemented with high reach and dose. Supermarket employee training had no significant impact on employees' knowledge, self-efficacy, or behavioral intention for helping customers with healthy purchasing or related topics of nutrition and food safety. In summary, components of this intervention to promote healthy eating were implemented with varying success within a large supermarket. Greater participation from management and employees could improve implementation. © 2015 Society for Public Health Education.
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New algorithm for risk analysis in radiotherapy
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Torres, Antonio; Montes de Oca, Joe
2015-01-01
Risk analyses applied to radiotherapy treatments have become an undeniable necessity, considering the dangers generated by the combination of using powerful radiation fields on patients and the occurrence of human errors and equipment failures during these treatments. The technique par excellence to execute these analyses has been the risk matrix. This paper presents the development of a new algorithm to execute the task with wide graphic and analytic potentialities, thus transforming it into a very useful option for risk monitoring and the optimization of quality assurance. The system SECURE- MR, which is the basic software of this algorithm, has been successfully used in risk analysis regarding different kinds of radiotherapies. Compared to previous methods, It offers new possibilities of analysis considering risk controlling factors as the robustness of reducers of initiators frequency and its consequences. Their analytic capacities and graphs allow novel developments to classify risk contributing factors, to represent information processes as well as accidental sequences. The paper shows the application of the proposed system to a generic process of radiotherapy treatment using a lineal accelerator. (author)
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Modeling issues in nuclear plant fire risk analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Siu, N.
1989-01-01
This paper discusses various issues associated with current models for analyzing the risk due to fires in nuclear power plants. Particular emphasis is placed on the fire growth and suppression models, these being unique to the fire portion of the overall risk analysis. Potentially significant modeling improvements are identified; also discussed are a variety of modeling issues where improvements will help the credibility of the analysis, without necessarily changing the computed risk significantly. The mechanistic modeling of fire initiation is identified as a particularly promising improvement for reducing the uncertainties in the predicted risk. 17 refs., 5 figs. 2 tabs
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Comparative risk analysis for the Rocky Flats Plant integrated project planning
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jones, M.E.; Shain, D.I.
1994-01-01
The Rocky Flats Plant is developing, with active stakeholder participation, a comprehensive planning strategy that will support transition of the Rocky Flats Plant from a nuclear weapons production facility to site cleanup and final disposition. Consideration of the interrelated nature of sitewide problems, such as material movement and disposition, facility and land use endstates, costs, relative risks to workers and the public, and waste disposition are all needed. Comparative Risk Analysis employs both incremental risk and cumulative risk evaluations to compare risks from postulated options or endstates and is an analytical tool for the Rocky Flats Plant Integrated Project Planning which can assist a decision-maker in evaluating relative risks among proposed remediation activity. However, risks from all of the remediation activities, decontamination and decommissioning activities, and normal ongoing operations are imposed upon the Rocky Flats workers, the surrounding public, and the environment. Comparative Risk Analysis will provide risk information, both human health and ecological, to aid in reducing unnecessary resource and monetary expenditures by focusing these resources on the largest risks first. Comparative Risk Analysis has been developed to aggregate various incremental risk estimates to develop a site cumulative risk estimate. The Comparative Risk Analysis methodology Group, consisting of community stakeholders, was established. Early stakeholder involvement in the risk analysis methodology development provides an opportunity for stakeholders to influence the risk information delivered to a decision-maker. This paper discusses development of the Comparative Risk Analysis methodology, stakeholder participation and lessons learned from these challenges
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Risk analysis as a decision tool
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yadigaroglu, G.; Chakraborty, S.
1985-01-01
From 1983 - 1985 a lecture series entitled ''Risk-benefit analysis'' was held at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH), Zurich, in cooperation with the Central Department for the Safety of Nuclear Installations of the Swiss Federal Agency of Energy Economy. In that setting the value of risk-oriented evaluation models as a decision tool in safety questions was discussed on a broad basis. Experts of international reputation from the Federal Republic of Germany, France, Canada, the United States and Switzerland have contributed to report in this joint volume on the uses of such models. Following an introductory synopsis on risk analysis and risk assessment the book deals with practical examples in the fields of medicine, nuclear power, chemistry, transport and civil engineering. Particular attention is paid to the dialogue between analysts and decision makers taking into account the economic-technical aspects and social values. The recent chemical disaster in the Indian city of Bhopal again signals the necessity of such analyses. All the lectures were recorded individually. (orig./HP) [de
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2015-07-13
caused in some cases by infection with enterovirus D68. We found that among the patients whose symptoms were previously attributed to enterovirus D68...distribution is unlimited. Re-analysis of metagenomic sequences from acute flaccidmyelitis patients reveals alternatives to enterovirus D68...Street Baltimore, MD 21218 -2685 ABSTRACT Re-analysis of metagenomic sequences from acute flaccidmyelitis patients reveals alternatives to enterovirus
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Network theory-based analysis of risk interactions in large engineering projects
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fang, Chao; Marle, Franck; Zio, Enrico; Bocquet, Jean-Claude
2012-01-01
This paper presents an approach based on network theory to deal with risk interactions in large engineering projects. Indeed, such projects are exposed to numerous and interdependent risks of various nature, which makes their management more difficult. In this paper, a topological analysis based on network theory is presented, which aims at identifying key elements in the structure of interrelated risks potentially affecting a large engineering project. This analysis serves as a powerful complement to classical project risk analysis. Its originality lies in the application of some network theory indicators to the project risk management field. The construction of the risk network requires the involvement of the project manager and other team members assigned to the risk management process. Its interpretation improves their understanding of risks and their potential interactions. The outcomes of the analysis provide a support for decision-making regarding project risk management. An example of application to a real large engineering project is presented. The conclusion is that some new insights can be found about risks, about their interactions and about the global potential behavior of the project. - Highlights: ► The method addresses the modeling of complexity in project risk analysis. ► Network theory indicators enable other risks than classical criticality analysis to be highlighted. ► This topological analysis improves project manager's understanding of risks and risk interactions. ► This helps project manager to make decisions considering the position in the risk network. ► An application to a real tramway implementation project in a city is provided.
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Adamovicz, Laura; Bronson, Ellen; Barrett, Kevin; Deem, Sharon L
2015-03-01
Health data for free-living eastern box turtles (Terrapene carolina carolina) at the Maryland Zoo in Baltimore were analyzed. One hundred and eighteen turtles were captured on or near zoo grounds over the course of 15 yr (1996-2011), with recapture of many individuals leading to 208 total evaluations. Of the 118 individuals, 61 were male, 50 were female, and 7 were of undetermined sex. Of the 208 captures, 188 were healthy, and 20 were sick or injured. Complete health evaluations were performed on 30 turtles with physical examination records, complete blood counts (CBCs), and plasma biochemistry profiles. Eight animals were sampled more than once, yielding 40 total samples for complete health evaluations of these 30 individuals. The 40 samples were divided into healthy (N=29) and sick (N=11) groups based on clinical findings on physical examination. Samples from healthy animals were further divided into male (N=17) and female (N= 12) groups. CBC and biochemistry profile parameters were compared between sick and healthy groups and between healthy males and females. Sick turtles had lower albumin, globulin, total protein (TP), calcium, phosphorous, sodium, and potassium than healthy animals. Sick turtles also had higher heterophil to lymphocyte ratios. Healthy female turtles had higher leukocyte count, eosinophil count, total solids, TP, globulin, cholesterol, calcium, and phosphorous than healthy males. Banked plasma from all 40 samples was tested for antibodies to Mycoplasma agassizii and Mycoplasma testudineum via enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. One sample from a clinically healthy female was antibody positive for M. agassizii; none were positive for M. testudineum. This study provides descriptive health data for eastern box turtles and CBC and biochemistry profile information for T. carolina carolina at and near the Maryland Zoo in Baltimore. It also reports low serologic evidence of exposure to mycoplasmosis.
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NSGIC State | GIS Inventory — Easements dataset current as of 2010. MDTA Right of Way Easement, Right of Way Easement, Right of Way Easement on I 95, Fort McHenry Tunnel, Baltimore Harbor tunnel,...
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Risk analysis methodologies for the transportation of radioactive materials
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Geffen, C.A.
1983-05-01
Different methodologies have evolved for consideration of each of the many steps required in performing a transportation risk analysis. Although there are techniques that attempt to consider the entire scope of the analysis in depth, most applications of risk assessment to the transportation of nuclear fuel cycle materials develop specific methodologies for only one or two parts of the analysis. The remaining steps are simplified for the analyst by narrowing the scope of the effort (such as evaluating risks for only one material, or a particular set of accident scenarios, or movement over a specific route); performing a qualitative rather than a quantitative analysis (probabilities may be simply ranked as high, medium or low, for instance); or assuming some generic, conservative conditions for potential release fractions and consequences. This paper presents a discussion of the history and present state-of-the-art of transportation risk analysis methodologies. Many reports in this area were reviewed as background for this presentation. The literature review, while not exhaustive, did result in a complete representation of the major methods used today in transportation risk analysis. These methodologies primarily include the use of severity categories based on historical accident data, the analysis of specifically assumed accident sequences for the transportation activity of interest, and the use of fault or event tree analysis. Although the focus of this work has generally been on potential impacts to public groups, some effort has been expended in the estimation of risks to occupational groups in transportation activities
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Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis
Dezfuli, Homayoon; Kelly, Dana; Smith, Curtis; Vedros, Kurt; Galyean, William
2009-01-01
This document, Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis, is intended to provide guidelines for the collection and evaluation of risk and reliability-related data. It is aimed at scientists and engineers familiar with risk and reliability methods and provides a hands-on approach to the investigation and application of a variety of risk and reliability data assessment methods, tools, and techniques. This document provides both: A broad perspective on data analysis collection and evaluation issues. A narrow focus on the methods to implement a comprehensive information repository. The topics addressed herein cover the fundamentals of how data and information are to be used in risk and reliability analysis models and their potential role in decision making. Understanding these topics is essential to attaining a risk informed decision making environment that is being sought by NASA requirements and procedures such as 8000.4 (Agency Risk Management Procedural Requirements), NPR 8705.05 (Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures for NASA Programs and Projects), and the System Safety requirements of NPR 8715.3 (NASA General Safety Program Requirements).
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Advanced uncertainty modelling for container port risk analysis.
Alyami, Hani; Yang, Zaili; Riahi, Ramin; Bonsall, Stephen; Wang, Jin
2016-08-13
Globalization has led to a rapid increase of container movements in seaports. Risks in seaports need to be appropriately addressed to ensure economic wealth, operational efficiency, and personnel safety. As a result, the safety performance of a Container Terminal Operational System (CTOS) plays a growing role in improving the efficiency of international trade. This paper proposes a novel method to facilitate the application of Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) in assessing the safety performance of CTOS. The new approach is developed through incorporating a Fuzzy Rule-Based Bayesian Network (FRBN) with Evidential Reasoning (ER) in a complementary manner. The former provides a realistic and flexible method to describe input failure information for risk estimates of individual hazardous events (HEs) at the bottom level of a risk analysis hierarchy. The latter is used to aggregate HEs safety estimates collectively, allowing dynamic risk-based decision support in CTOS from a systematic perspective. The novel feature of the proposed method, compared to those in traditional port risk analysis lies in a dynamic model capable of dealing with continually changing operational conditions in ports. More importantly, a new sensitivity analysis method is developed and carried out to rank the HEs by taking into account their specific risk estimations (locally) and their Risk Influence (RI) to a port's safety system (globally). Due to its generality, the new approach can be tailored for a wide range of applications in different safety and reliability engineering and management systems, particularly when real time risk ranking is required to measure, predict, and improve the associated system safety performance. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Multivariate survival analysis and competing risks
Crowder, Martin J
2012-01-01
Multivariate Survival Analysis and Competing Risks introduces univariate survival analysis and extends it to the multivariate case. It covers competing risks and counting processes and provides many real-world examples, exercises, and R code. The text discusses survival data, survival distributions, frailty models, parametric methods, multivariate data and distributions, copulas, continuous failure, parametric likelihood inference, and non- and semi-parametric methods. There are many books covering survival analysis, but very few that cover the multivariate case in any depth. Written for a graduate-level audience in statistics/biostatistics, this book includes practical exercises and R code for the examples. The author is renowned for his clear writing style, and this book continues that trend. It is an excellent reference for graduate students and researchers looking for grounding in this burgeoning field of research.
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fay, W.M.
1981-07-01
This abbreviated data report presents results of ground water, surface water, and stream sediment reconnaissance in the National Topographic Map Series (NTMS) Baltimore 1 0 x 2 0 NTMS quadrangle. Surface sediment samples were collected at 993 sites. Ground water samples were collected at 777 sites. Neutron activation analysis (NAA) results are given for uranium and 16 other elements in sediments, for uranium and 8 other elements in ground water, and for uranium and 9 other elements in surface water. Field measurements and observations are reported for each site. Analytical data and field measurements are presented. Data from ground water sites include: (1) water chemistry measurements (pH, conductivity, and alkalinity), (2) physical measurements, where applicable (water temperature, well description, etc.), and (3) elemental analyses (U, Al, Br, Cl, Dy, F, Mn, Na, and V). Data from sediment sites include: (1) stream water chemistry measurements (pH, conductivity and alkalinity), and (2) elemental analyses for sediment samples (U, Th, Hf, Al, Ce, Dy, Eu, Fe, La, Lu, Mn, Sc, Sm, Na, Ti, V, and Yb). Sample site descriptors (stream characteristics, vegetation, etc.) are also tabulated. Areal distribution maps, histograms, and cumulative frequency plots for most elements and for U/Th and U/Hf ratios are included on the microfiche. Key data from stream water sites include: (1) water quality measurements (pH, conductivity and alkalinity) and (2) elemental analyses (U, Al, Br, Cl, Dy, F, Mg, Mn, Na, and V). Uranium concentrations in the sediments that were above detection limits ranged from up to 38.7 ppM. The samples with high uranium values also have high thorium values, suggesting that most of the uranium is held within resistate minerals. The north-northeast trend of the geologic units is clearly reflected in the data
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Flood risk analysis procedure for nuclear power plants
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wagner, D.P.
1982-01-01
This paper describes a methodology and procedure for determining the impact of floods on nuclear power plant risk. The procedures are based on techniques of fault tree and event tree analysis and use the logic of these techniques to determine the effects of a flood on system failure probability and accident sequence occurrence frequency. The methodology can be applied independently or as an add-on analysis for an existing risk assessment. Each stage of the analysis yields useful results such as the critical flood level, failure flood level, and the flood's contribution to accident sequence occurrence frequency. The results of applications show the effects of floods on the risk from nuclear power plants analyzed in the Reactor Safety Study
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Anderson Steeves, Elizabeth; Silbergeld, Ellen; Summers, Amber; Chen, Lenis; Gittelsohn, Joel
2012-01-01
Background There are an estimated 9.4 million cases of foodborne illness each year. Consumers have a key role in preventing foodborne illness, but differences in the practice of food safety behaviors exist, increasing risk for certain groups in the population. Identifying groups who are more likely to practice risky food safety behaviors can assist in development of interventions to reduce the disease burden of foodborne illnesses. The purpose of this investigation was to examine the relationships of health indicators and psychosocial factors with self-reported food safety behaviors. Methods and Findings Data were collected via questionnaire from 153 African Americans who attend churches in Baltimore City. Individuals reported high overall concern with food safety (mean score: 0.80±0.49 on a scale of −1 to +1) and practiced food safety behaviors with moderate overall frequency (mean score: 5.26±4.01 on a scale of −12 to +12), with considerable variation in reported frequencies depending on the food safety behavior. After adjusting for demographic variables, food safety behaviors were significantly associated with BMI and psychosocial variables. Riskier food safety behaviors were associated with higher body mass index (BMI) (β = −0.141 95%CI (−0.237, −0.044), p = 0.004). Self-efficacy for healthy eating (standard β [std. β] = 0.250, p = 0.005) and healthy eating intentions (std. β = 0.178, p = 0.041) were associated with better food safety behaviors scores. Conclusions These results show important relationships between weight-related health indicators, psychosocial factors and food safety behaviors that have not previously been studied. Interventions tailored to higher-risk populations have the potential to reduce the burden of food-related illnesses. Additional studies are needed to further investigate these relationships with larger and more diverse samples. PMID:23284894
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Ontological Analysis of the Project Risk Management Concept ‘Risk’
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Uzulāns Juris
2018-02-01
Full Text Available The aim of the current research series is to examine the definitions of the concept ‘risk’ and analyze the concepts used in the definitions of ‘risk’ in the sources of these definitions in order to perform the ontological analysis of the concept of ‘risk’. Ontological and epistemological analysis of the concepts in the definition of the concept ‘risk’ was used to answer the question what ‘risk’ means in project management. This investigation represents a part of the research series where the ontological, epistemological and methodological analysis of project risk is performed with the aim to improve risk registers and risk management as a whole. In the previous studies the author analyzed the concept of ‘event’ that defines the content of the concept ‘risk’. The use of ‘event’ was analyzed in different sources to find out how the concept should be used. The ontological, epistemological and methodological analysis of the definitions of the concept ‘risk’ is the theoretical foundation for risk register creation because it is possible to create complete and understandable register for the participants of the project risk management process. The author believes that the conducted research helps establish confidence that ontological analysis is the method that together with the epistemological and methodological analysis provides opportunity to perform analysis of risk management sources aimed at improving risk management. The results of the study cannot be considered sufficient for deriving valid conclusions about project risk management and developing recommendations for improving risk management with regard to the content of the risk register. For valid conclusions and recommendations, a deeper research is needed which, first of all, would analyze a larger number of sources.
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Risk analysis of alternative energy sources
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kazmer, D.R.
1982-01-01
The author explores two points raised by Miller Spangler in a January 1981 issue: public perception of risks involving nuclear power plants relative to those of conventional plants and criteria for evaluating the way risk analyses are made. On the first point, he concludes that translating public attitudes into the experts' language of probability and risk could provide better information and understanding of both the attitudes and the risks. Viewing risk analysis methodologies as filters which help to test historical change, he suggests that the lack of information favors a lay jury approach for energy decisions. Spangler responds that Congress is an example of lay decision making, but that a lay jury, given public disinterest and polarization, would probably not improve social justice on the nuclear issue. 5 references, 4 figures
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Fumiaki Sato
2008-04-01
Full Text Available Barrett's esophagus predisposes to esophageal adenocarcinoma. However, the value of endoscopic surveillance in Barrett's esophagus has been debated because of the low incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma in Barrett's esophagus. Moreover, high inter-observer and sampling-dependent variation in the histologic staging of dysplasia make clinical risk assessment problematic. In this study, we developed a 3-tiered risk stratification strategy, based on systematically selected epigenetic and clinical parameters, to improve Barrett's esophagus surveillance efficiency.We defined high-grade dysplasia as endpoint of progression, and Barrett's esophagus progressor patients as Barrett's esophagus patients with either no dysplasia or low-grade dysplasia who later developed high-grade dysplasia or esophageal adenocarcinoma. We analyzed 4 epigenetic and 3 clinical parameters in 118 Barrett's esophagus tissues obtained from 35 progressor and 27 non-progressor Barrett's esophagus patients from Baltimore Veterans Affairs Maryland Health Care Systems and Mayo Clinic. Based on 2-year and 4-year prediction models using linear discriminant analysis (area under the receiver-operator characteristic (ROC curve: 0.8386 and 0.7910, respectively, Barrett's esophagus specimens were stratified into high-risk (HR, intermediate-risk (IR, or low-risk (LR groups. This 3-tiered stratification method retained both the high specificity of the 2-year model and the high sensitivity of the 4-year model. Progression-free survivals differed significantly among the 3 risk groups, with p = 0.0022 (HR vs. IR and p<0.0001 (HR or IR vs. LR. Incremental value analyses demonstrated that the number of methylated genes contributed most influentially to prediction accuracy.This 3-tiered risk stratification strategy has the potential to exert a profound impact on Barrett's esophagus surveillance accuracy and efficiency.
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The watchdog role of risk analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Reijen, G. van; Vinck, W.
1983-01-01
The reason why the risks of large-scale technology attract more attention lies in the fact that accidents would have more disastrous results and in the fact that it is probably more attractive to study the risks of some large projects than to do the same for a greater number of smaller projects. Within this presentation there will be some opening remarks on the Role of the Commission of the European Community with regard to accident prevention. The development of the concept of quantitative risks is dealt with. This development leads to a combinded of deterministic and probabilistic methods. The presentation concludes with some critical remarks on quantitative risk analysis and its use. (orig./HP) [de
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The use of current risk analysis tools evaluated towards preventing external domino accidents
Reniers, Genserik L L; Dullaert, W.; Ale, B. J.M.; Soudan, K.
Risk analysis is an essential tool for company safety policy. Risk analysis consists of identifying and evaluating all possible risks. The efficiency of risk analysis tools depends on the rigueur of identifying and evaluating all possible risks. The diversity in risk analysis procedures is such that
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Dietary patterns and depression risk: A meta-analysis.
Li, Ye; Lv, Mei-Rong; Wei, Yan-Jin; Sun, Ling; Zhang, Ji-Xiang; Zhang, Huai-Guo; Li, Bin
2017-07-01
Although some studies have reported potential associations of dietary patterns with depression risk, a consistent perspective hasn't been estimated to date. Therefore, we conducted this meta-analysis to evaluate the relation between dietary patterns and the risk of depression. A literature research was conducted searching MEDLINE and EMBASE databases up to September 2016. In total, 21 studies from ten countries met the inclusion criteria and were included in the present meta-analysis. A dietary pattern characterized by a high intakes of fruit, vegetables, whole grain, fish, olive oil, low-fat dairy and antioxidants and low intakes of animal foods was apparently associated with a decreased risk of depression. A dietary pattern characterized by a high consumption of red and/or processed meat, refined grains, sweets, high-fat dairy products, butter, potatoes and high-fat gravy, and low intakes of fruits and vegetables is associated with an increased risk of depression. The results of this meta-analysis suggest that healthy pattern may decrease the risk of depression, whereas western-style may increase the risk of depression. However, more randomized controlled trails and cohort studies are urgently required to confirm this findings. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Benefit-Risk Analysis for Decision-Making: An Approach.
Raju, G K; Gurumurthi, K; Domike, R
2016-12-01
The analysis of benefit and risk is an important aspect of decision-making throughout the drug lifecycle. In this work, the use of a benefit-risk analysis approach to support decision-making was explored. The proposed approach builds on the qualitative US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approach to include a more explicit analysis based on international standards and guidance that enables aggregation and comparison of benefit and risk on a common basis and a lifecycle focus. The approach is demonstrated on six decisions over the lifecycle (e.g., accelerated approval, withdrawal, and traditional approval) using two case studies: natalizumab for multiple sclerosis (MS) and bedaquiline for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB). © 2016 American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.
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Methodology for risk-based analysis of technical specifications
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Vesely, W.E.; Gaertner, J.P.; Wagner, D.P.
1985-01-01
Part of the effort by EPRI to apply probabilistic risk assessment methods and results to the solution of utility problems involves the investigation of methods for risk-based analysis of technical specifications. The culmination of this investigation is the SOCRATES computer code developed by Battelle's Columbus Laboratories to assist in the evaluation of technical specifications of nuclear power plants. The program is designed to use information found in PRAs to re-evaluate risk for changes in component allowed outage times (AOTs) and surveillance test intervals (STIs). The SOCRATES program is a unique and important tool for technical specification evaluations. The detailed component unavailability model allows a detailed analysis of AOT and STI contributions to risk. Explicit equations allow fast and inexpensive calculations. Because the code is designed to accept ranges of parameters and to save results of calculations that do not change during the analysis, sensitivity studies are efficiently performed and results are clearly displayed
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Implementing the Bayesian paradigm in risk analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Aven, T.; Kvaloey, J.T.
2002-01-01
The Bayesian paradigm comprises a unified and consistent framework for analyzing and expressing risk. Yet, we see rather few examples of applications where the full Bayesian setting has been adopted with specifications of priors of unknown parameters. In this paper, we discuss some of the practical challenges of implementing Bayesian thinking and methods in risk analysis, emphasizing the introduction of probability models and parameters and associated uncertainty assessments. We conclude that there is a need for a pragmatic view in order to 'successfully' apply the Bayesian approach, such that we can do the assignments of some of the probabilities without adopting the somewhat sophisticated procedure of specifying prior distributions of parameters. A simple risk analysis example is presented to illustrate ideas
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Quantitative Risk Analysis: Method And Process
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Anass BAYAGA
2010-03-01
Full Text Available Recent and past studies (King III report, 2009: 73-75; Stoney 2007;Committee of Sponsoring Organisation-COSO, 2004, Bartell, 2003; Liebenberg and Hoyt, 2003; Reason, 2000; Markowitz 1957 lament that although, the introduction of quantifying risk to enhance degree of objectivity in finance for instance was quite parallel to its development in the manufacturing industry, it is not the same in Higher Education Institution (HEI. In this regard, the objective of the paper was to demonstrate the methods and process of Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA through likelihood of occurrence of risk (phase I. This paper serves as first of a two-phased study, which sampled hundred (100 risk analysts in a University in the greater Eastern Cape Province of South Africa.The analysis of likelihood of occurrence of risk by logistic regression and percentages were conducted to investigate whether there were a significant difference or not between groups (analyst in respect of QRA.The Hosmer and Lemeshow test was non-significant with a chi-square(X2 =8.181; p = 0.300, which indicated that there was a good model fit, since the data did not significantly deviate from the model. The study concluded that to derive an overall likelihood rating that indicated the probability that a potential risk may be exercised within the construct of an associated threat environment, the following governing factors must be considered: (1 threat source motivation and capability (2 nature of the vulnerability (3 existence and effectiveness of current controls (methods and process.
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Risk Analysis for Performance Improvement in a Romanian Pharmaceutical Company
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Dana Corina Deselnicu
2018-05-01
Full Text Available The paper presents risk management analysis carried out to investigate the operations of a Romanian company dealing with the distribution of pharmaceutical products. The main risks challenging the company were identified, described and classified, providing a scientific base for further analysis. Then, the identified inherent risks were evaluated using tools as the risk index method and the risk matrix in order to emphasize their tolerance level. According to the results of the evaluation, risk mitigation strategies and measures were advanced for the management of the analysed risks. Relevant conclusions were drawn from the experience.
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Lagasse, Lisa P; Love, David C; Smith, Katherine Clegg
2014-01-01
The country-of-origin labeling (COOL) law requires United States grocers to indicate the origin and procurement method (farm-raised or wild-caught) for seafood. This study explored the presentation of COOL on fresh, frozen, packaged, and unpackaged seafood in Baltimore City grocery stores. Eight stores were visited bi-monthly to photograph seafood labels, and circulars were collected weekly from fourteen stores over three months. Ninety-six percent of products were labeled correctly. Forty-eight percent of advertisements included COOL. While in-store labels did not highlight COOL, advertising featured references to domestic and wild-caught seafood, signaling to customers that these are high-value product qualities.
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Uppuluri, V.R.R.
1979-01-01
Mathematical foundations of risk analysis are addressed. The importance of having the same probability space in order to compare different experiments is pointed out. Then the following topics are discussed: consequences as random variables with infinite expectations; the phenomenon of rare events; series-parallel systems and different kinds of randomness that could be imposed on such systems; and the problem of consensus of estimates of expert opinion
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Assessment report on NRP sub-theme 'Risk Analysis'
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Biesiot, W.; Hendrickx, L.; Olsthoorn, A.A.
1995-01-01
An overview and assessment are presented of the three research projects carried out under NRP funding that concern risk-related topics: (1) The risks of nonlinear climate changes, (2) Socio-economic and policy aspects of changes in incidence and intensity of extreme (weather) events, and (3) Characterizing the risks: a comparative analysis of the risks of global warming and of relevant policy strategies. 1 tab., 6 refs
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Applications of probabilistic risk analysis in nuclear criticality safety design
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chang, J.K.
1992-01-01
Many documents have been prepared that try to define the scope of the criticality analysis and that suggest adding probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) to the deterministic safety analysis. The report of the US Department of Energy (DOE) AL 5481.1B suggested that an accident is credible if the occurrence probability is >1 x 10 -6 /yr. The draft DOE 5480 safety analysis report suggested that safety analyses should include the application of methods such as deterministic safety analysis, risk assessment, reliability engineering, common-cause failure analysis, human reliability analysis, and human factor safety analysis techniques. The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) report NRC SG830.110 suggested that major safety analysis methods should include but not be limited to risk assessment, reliability engineering, and human factor safety analysis. All of these suggestions have recommended including PRA in the traditional criticality analysis
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GIS risk analysis of hazardous materials transport
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Anders, C.; Olsten, J.
1991-01-01
The Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to assess the risks and vulnerability of transporting hazardous materials and wastes (such as gasoline, explosives, poisons, etc) on the Arizona highway system. This paper discusses the methodology that was utilized, and the application of GIS systems to risk analysis problems
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APPROPRIATE ALLOCATION OF CONTINGENCY USING RISK ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Andi Andi
2004-01-01
Full Text Available Many cost overruns in the world of construction are attributable to either unforeseen events or foreseen events for which uncertainty was not appropriately accommodated. It is argued that a significant improvement to project management performance may result from greater attention to the process of analyzing project risks. The objective of this paper is to propose a risk analysis methodology for appropriate allocation of contingency in project cost estimation. In the first step, project risks will be identified. Influence diagramming technique is employed to identify and to show how the risks affect the project cost elements and also the relationships among the risks themselves. The second step is to assess the project costs with regards to the risks under consideration. Using a linguistic approach, the degree of uncertainty of identified project risks is assessed and quantified. The problem of dependency between risks is taken into consideration during this analysis. For the final step, as the main purpose of this paper, a method for allocating appropriate contingency is presented. Two types of contingencies, i.e. project contingency and management reserve are proposed to accommodate the risks. An illustrative example is presented at the end to show the application of the methodology.
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Aprilia, Ayu Rizky; Santoso, Imam; Ekasari, Dhita Murita
2017-05-01
Yogurt is a product based on milk, which has beneficial effects for health. The process for the production of yogurt is very susceptible to failure because it involves bacteria and fermentation. For an industry, the risks may cause harm and have a negative impact. In order for a product to be successful and profitable, it requires the analysis of risks that may occur during the production process. Risk analysis can identify the risks in detail and prevent as well as determine its handling, so that the risks can be minimized. Therefore, this study will analyze the risks of the production process with a case study in CV.XYZ. The method used in this research is the Fuzzy Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (fuzzy FMEA) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA). The results showed that there are 6 risks from equipment variables, raw material variables, and process variables. Those risks include the critical risk, which is the risk of a lack of an aseptic process, more specifically if starter yogurt is damaged due to contamination by fungus or other bacteria and a lack of sanitation equipment. The results of quantitative analysis of FTA showed that the highest probability is the probability of the lack of an aseptic process, with a risk of 3.902%. The recommendations for improvement include establishing SOPs (Standard Operating Procedures), which include the process, workers, and environment, controlling the starter of yogurt and improving the production planning and sanitation equipment using hot water immersion.
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Shi, Nianmin; Lu, Qiang; Zhang, Jiao; Li, Li; Zhang, Junnan; Zhang, Fanglei; Dong, Yanhong; Zhang, Xinyue; Zhang, Zheng; Gao, Wenhui
2017-06-03
This study aims to prevent persistentinfection, reduce the incidence of cervical cancer, and improve women's health by understanding the theoretical basis of the risk factors for continuous infection of asymptomatic women with high-risk human papilloma virus (HPV) strains via information collected, which includes the persistent infection rate and the most prevalent HPV strain types of high risk to asymptomatic women in the high-risk area of cervical cancer in Linfen, Shanxi Province. Based on the method of cluster sampling, locations were chosen from the industrial county and agricultural county of Linfen, Shanxi Province, namely the Xiangfen and Quwo counties. Use of the convenience sampling (CS) method enables the identification of women who have sex but without symptoms of abnormal cervix for analyzing risk factors of HPV-DNA detection and performing a retrospective questionnaire survey in these 2 counties. Firstly, cervical exfoliated cell samples were collected for thin-layer liquid-based cytology test (TCT), and simultaneously testing high-risk type HPV DNA, then samples with positive testing results were retested to identify the infected HPV types. The 6-month period of testing was done to derive the 6-month persistent infection rate. The retrospective survey included concepts addressed in the questionnaire: basic situation of the research objects, menstrual history, marital status, pregnancy history, sexual habits and other aspects. The questionnaire was divided into a case group and a comparison group, which are based on the high-risk HPV-DNA testing result to ascertain whether or not there is persistent infection. Statistical analysis employed Epidate3.1 software for date entry, SPSS17.0 for date statistical analysis. Select statistic charts, Chi-Square Analysis, single-factor analysis and multivariate Logistic regression analysis to analyze the protective factors and risk factors of high-risk HPV infection. Risk factors are predicted by using the
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Waldstein, Shari R; Wendell, Carrington Rice; Seliger, Stephen L; Ferrucci, Luigi; Metter, E Jeffrey; Zonderman, Alan B
2010-01-01
To examine the relations between the use of nonaspirin, nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) and aspirin and age-related change in multiple domains of cognitive function in community-dwelling individuals without dementia. Longitudinal, with measures obtained on one to 18 occasions over up to 45 years. General community. A volunteer sample of up to 2,300 participants from the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging free of diagnosed dementia. At each visit, reported NSAID or aspirin use (yes/no) and tests of verbal and visual memory, attention, perceptuo-motor speed, confrontation naming, executive function, and mental status. Mixed-effects regression models revealed that NSAID use was associated with less prospective decline on the Blessed Information-Memory-Concentration (I-M-C) Test, a mental status test weighted for memory and concentration (Prelated to greater prospective decline on the Blessed I-M-C Test (Pfunction, but on only two cognitive measures. In contrast, aspirin use was associated with greater prospective cognitive decline on select measures, potentially reflecting its common use for vascular disease prophylaxis. Effect sizes were small, calling into question clinical significance, although overall public health significance may be meaningful.
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The application of CFD to hydrogen risk analysis in nuclear power plants
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wang Hui; Han Xu; Chang Meng; Wang Xiaofeng; Wang Shuguo; Lu Xinhua; Wu Lin
2013-01-01
Status of the hydrogen risk analysis method is systemically summarized in this paper and the advantages and limits of CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamic) in hydrogen risk analysis is discussed. The international experimental programs on the CFD hydrogen risk analysis are introduced in this paper. The application of CFD to nuclear power plant (NPP) hydrogen risk analysis is introduced in detail by taking EPR and Ling'ao NPP for example. In these bases, the CFD development prospect of hydrogen risk analysis is also summarized in this paper. (authors)
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A free and open source QGIS plugin for flood risk analysis: FloodRisk
Albano, Raffaele; Sole, Aurelia; Mancusi, Leonardo
2016-04-01
An analysis of global statistics shows a substantial increase in flood damage over the past few decades. Moreover, it is expected that flood risk will continue to rise due to the combined effect of increasing numbers of people and economic assets in risk-prone areas and the effects of climate change. In order to increase the resilience of European economies and societies, the improvement of risk assessment and management has been pursued in the last years. This results in a wide range of flood analysis models of different complexities with substantial differences in underlying components needed for its implementation, as geographical, hydrological and social differences demand specific approaches in the different countries. At present, it is emerging the need of promote the creation of open, transparent, reliable and extensible tools for a comprehensive, context-specific and applicable flood risk analysis. In this context, the free and open-source Quantum GIS (QGIS) plugin "FloodRisk" is a good starting point to address this objective. The vision of the developers of this free and open source software (FOSS) is to combine the main features of state-of-the-art science, collaboration, transparency and interoperability in an initiative to assess and communicate flood risk worldwide and to assist authorities to facilitate the quality and fairness of flood risk management at multiple scales. Among the scientific community, this type of activity can be labelled as "participatory research", intended as adopting a set of techniques that "are interactive and collaborative" and reproducible, "providing a meaningful research experience that both promotes learning and generates knowledge and research data through a process of guided discovery"' (Albano et al., 2015). Moreover, this FOSS geospatial approach can lowering the financial barriers to understanding risks at national and sub-national levels through a spatio-temporal domain and can provide better and more complete
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Carrillo, M.
2013-01-01
The power point presentation is about reach and results of the risk analysis in Venezuela, chemical dangers in food, human damage, injuries , technologies news in fodd development, toxicity, microbiological risk, technical recommendations
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Elizabeth Anderson Steeves
Full Text Available BACKGROUND: There are an estimated 9.4 million cases of foodborne illness each year. Consumers have a key role in preventing foodborne illness, but differences in the practice of food safety behaviors exist, increasing risk for certain groups in the population. Identifying groups who are more likely to practice risky food safety behaviors can assist in development of interventions to reduce the disease burden of foodborne illnesses. The purpose of this investigation was to examine the relationships of health indicators and psychosocial factors with self-reported food safety behaviors. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Data were collected via questionnaire from 153 African Americans who attend churches in Baltimore City. Individuals reported high overall concern with food safety (mean score: 0.80±0.49 on a scale of -1 to +1 and practiced food safety behaviors with moderate overall frequency (mean score: 5.26±4.01 on a scale of -12 to +12, with considerable variation in reported frequencies depending on the food safety behavior. After adjusting for demographic variables, food safety behaviors were significantly associated with BMI and psychosocial variables. Riskier food safety behaviors were associated with higher body mass index (BMI (β = -0.141 95%CI (-0.237, -0.044, p = 0.004. Self-efficacy for healthy eating (standard β [std. β] = 0.250, p = 0.005 and healthy eating intentions (std. β = 0.178, p = 0.041 were associated with better food safety behaviors scores. CONCLUSIONS: These results show important relationships between weight-related health indicators, psychosocial factors and food safety behaviors that have not previously been studied. Interventions tailored to higher-risk populations have the potential to reduce the burden of food-related illnesses. Additional studies are needed to further investigate these relationships with larger and more diverse samples.
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Spent fuel pool risk analysis for the Dukovany NPP
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hust' ak, S.; Jaros, M.; Kubicek, J. [UJV Rez, a.s., Husinec-Rez (Czech Republic)
2013-07-01
UJV Rez, a.s. maintains a Living Probabilistic Safety Assessment (Living PSA) program for Dukovany Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) in the Czech Republic. This project has been established as a framework for activities related to risk assessment and to support for risk-informed decision making at this plant. The most extensively used PSA application at Dukovany NPP is risk monitoring of instantaneous (point-in-time) risk during plant operation, especially for the purpose of configuration risk management during plant scheduled outages to avoid risk significant configurations. The scope of PSA for Dukovany NPP includes also determination of a risk contribution from spent fuel pool (SFP) operation to provide recommendations for the prevention and mitigation of SFP accidents and to be applicable for configuration risk management. This paper describes the analysis of internal initiating events (IEs) in PSA for Dukovany NPP, which can contribute to the risk from SFP operation. The analysis of those IEs was done more thoroughly in the PSA for Dukovany NPP in order to be used in instantaneous risk monitoring. (orig.)
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New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Skandamis, Panagiotis N.; Andritsos, Nikolaos; Psomas, Antonios; Paramythiotis, Spyridon
2015-01-01
The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total ‘failure’ that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user
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New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Skandamis, Panagiotis N., E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Andritsos, Nikolaos, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Psomas, Antonios, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Paramythiotis, Spyridon, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr [Laboratory of Food Quality Control and Hygiene, Department of Food Science and Technology, Agricultural University of Athens, Iera Odos 75, 118 55, Athens (Greece)
2015-01-22
The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total ‘failure’ that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user
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New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges
Skandamis, Panagiotis N.; Andritsos, Nikolaos; Psomas, Antonios; Paramythiotis, Spyridon
2015-01-01
The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total `failure' that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user-friendly softwares
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Nordgaard, Dag Eirik
2010-04-15
During the last 10 to 15 years electricity distribution companies throughout the world have been ever more focused on asset management as the guiding principle for their activities. Within asset management, risk is a key issue for distribution companies, together with handling of cost and performance. There is now an increased awareness of the need to include risk analyses into the companies' decision making processes. Much of the work on risk in electricity distribution systems has focused on aspects of reliability. This is understandable, since it is surely an important feature of the product delivered by the electricity distribution infrastructure, and it is high on the agenda for regulatory authorities in many countries. However, electricity distribution companies are also concerned with other risks relevant for their decision making. This typically involves intangible risks, such as safety, environmental impacts and company reputation. In contrast to the numerous methodologies developed for reliability risk analysis, there are relatively few applications of structured analyses to support decisions concerning intangible risks, even though they represent an important motivation for decisions taken in electricity distribution companies. The overall objective of this PhD work has been to explore risk analysis methods that can be used to improve and support decision making in electricity distribution system asset management, with an emphasis on the analysis of intangible risks. The main contributions of this thesis can be summarised as: An exploration and testing of quantitative risk analysis (QRA) methods to support decisions concerning intangible risks; The development of a procedure for using life curve models to provide input to QRA models; The development of a framework for risk-informed decision making where QRA are used to analyse selected problems; In addition, the results contribute to clarify the basic concepts of risk, and highlight challenges
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[Reliability theory based on quality risk network analysis for Chinese medicine injection].
Li, Zheng; Kang, Li-Yuan; Fan, Xiao-Hui
2014-08-01
A new risk analysis method based upon reliability theory was introduced in this paper for the quality risk management of Chinese medicine injection manufacturing plants. The risk events including both cause and effect ones were derived in the framework as nodes with a Bayesian network analysis approach. It thus transforms the risk analysis results from failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) into a Bayesian network platform. With its structure and parameters determined, the network can be used to evaluate the system reliability quantitatively with probabilistic analytical appraoches. Using network analysis tools such as GeNie and AgenaRisk, we are able to find the nodes that are most critical to influence the system reliability. The importance of each node to the system can be quantitatively evaluated by calculating the effect of the node on the overall risk, and minimization plan can be determined accordingly to reduce their influences and improve the system reliability. Using the Shengmai injection manufacturing plant of SZYY Ltd as a user case, we analyzed the quality risk with both static FMEA analysis and dynamic Bayesian Network analysis. The potential risk factors for the quality of Shengmai injection manufacturing were identified with the network analysis platform. Quality assurance actions were further defined to reduce the risk and improve the product quality.
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Dietary patterns and colorectal cancer risk: a meta-analysis.
Feng, Yu-Liang; Shu, Long; Zheng, Pei-Fen; Zhang, Xiao-Yan; Si, Cai-Juan; Yu, Xiao-Long; Gao, Wei; Zhang, Lun
2017-05-01
The analysis of dietary patterns has recently drawn considerable attention as a method of investigating the association between the overall whole diet and the risk of colorectal cancer. However, the results have yielded conflicting findings. Here, we carried out a meta-analysis to identify the association between dietary patterns and the risk of colorectal cancer. A total of 40 studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria and were included in this meta-analysis. The highest category of 'healthy' dietary pattern compared with the lowest category was apparently associated with a decreased risk for colorectal cancer [odds ratio (OR)=0.75; confidence interval (CI): 0.68-0.83; Pcolorectal cancer was shown for the highest compared with the lowest category of a 'western-style' dietary pattern (OR=1.40; CI: 1.26-1.56; Pcolorectal cancer in the highest compared with the lowest category of 'alcohol-consumption' pattern (OR=1.44; CI: 1.13-1.82; P=0.003). The results of this meta-analysis indicate that a 'healthy' dietary pattern may decrease the risk of colorectal cancer, whereas 'western-style' and 'alcohol-consumption' patterns may increase the risk of colorectal cancer.
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Sensitivity Analysis of Launch Vehicle Debris Risk Model
Gee, Ken; Lawrence, Scott L.
2010-01-01
As part of an analysis of the loss of crew risk associated with an ascent abort system for a manned launch vehicle, a model was developed to predict the impact risk of the debris resulting from an explosion of the launch vehicle on the crew module. The model consisted of a debris catalog describing the number, size and imparted velocity of each piece of debris, a method to compute the trajectories of the debris and a method to calculate the impact risk given the abort trajectory of the crew module. The model provided a point estimate of the strike probability as a function of the debris catalog, the time of abort and the delay time between the abort and destruction of the launch vehicle. A study was conducted to determine the sensitivity of the strike probability to the various model input parameters and to develop a response surface model for use in the sensitivity analysis of the overall ascent abort risk model. The results of the sensitivity analysis and the response surface model are presented in this paper.
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Supplemental Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment - Hydrotreater
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lowry, Peter P. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wagner, Katie A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
2015-04-01
A supplemental hazard analysis was conducted and quantitative risk assessment performed in response to an independent review comment received by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) from the U.S. Department of Energy Pacific Northwest Field Office (PNSO) against the Hydrotreater/Distillation Column Hazard Analysis Report issued in April 2013. The supplemental analysis used the hazardous conditions documented by the previous April 2013 report as a basis. The conditions were screened and grouped for the purpose of identifying whether additional prudent, practical hazard controls could be identified, using a quantitative risk evaluation to assess the adequacy of the controls and establish a lower level of concern for the likelihood of potential serious accidents. Calculations were performed to support conclusions where necessary.
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Revealing the underlying drivers of disaster risk: a global analysis
Peduzzi, Pascal
2017-04-01
Disasters events are perfect examples of compound events. Disaster risk lies at the intersection of several independent components such as hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Understanding the weight of each component requires extensive standardisation. Here, I show how footprints of past disastrous events were generated using GIS modelling techniques and used for extracting population and economic exposures based on distribution models. Using past event losses, it was possible to identify and quantify a wide range of socio-politico-economic drivers associated with human vulnerability. The analysis was applied to about nine thousand individual past disastrous events covering earthquakes, floods and tropical cyclones. Using a multiple regression analysis on these individual events it was possible to quantify each risk component and assess how vulnerability is influenced by various hazard intensities. The results show that hazard intensity, exposure, poverty, governance as well as other underlying factors (e.g. remoteness) can explain the magnitude of past disasters. Analysis was also performed to highlight the role of future trends in population and climate change and how this may impacts exposure to tropical cyclones in the future. GIS models combined with statistical multiple regression analysis provided a powerful methodology to identify, quantify and model disaster risk taking into account its various components. The same methodology can be applied to various types of risk at local to global scale. This method was applied and developed for the Global Risk Analysis of the Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR). It was first applied on mortality risk in GAR 2009 and GAR 2011. New models ranging from global assets exposure and global flood hazard models were also recently developed to improve the resolution of the risk analysis and applied through CAPRA software to provide probabilistic economic risk assessments such as Average Annual Losses (AAL
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Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581
Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin
2016-04-01
Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.
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Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin
2016-01-01
Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.
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Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Prayogo, Galang Sandy, E-mail: gasandylang@live.com; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Diponegoro University, Semarang (Indonesia); Kim, Seon Jin [Department of Mechanical & Automotive Engineering of Pukyong National University (Korea, Republic of)
2016-04-19
Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.
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The development of a 3D risk analysis method.
I, Yet-Pole; Cheng, Te-Lung
2008-05-01
Much attention has been paid to the quantitative risk analysis (QRA) research in recent years due to more and more severe disasters that have happened in the process industries. Owing to its calculation complexity, very few software, such as SAFETI, can really make the risk presentation meet the practice requirements. However, the traditional risk presentation method, like the individual risk contour in SAFETI, is mainly based on the consequence analysis results of dispersion modeling, which usually assumes that the vapor cloud disperses over a constant ground roughness on a flat terrain with no obstructions and concentration fluctuations, which is quite different from the real situations of a chemical process plant. All these models usually over-predict the hazardous regions in order to maintain their conservativeness, which also increases the uncertainty of the simulation results. On the other hand, a more rigorous model such as the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model can resolve the previous limitations; however, it cannot resolve the complexity of risk calculations. In this research, a conceptual three-dimensional (3D) risk calculation method was proposed via the combination of results of a series of CFD simulations with some post-processing procedures to obtain the 3D individual risk iso-surfaces. It is believed that such technique will not only be limited to risk analysis at ground level, but also be extended into aerial, submarine, or space risk analyses in the near future.
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Analysis of Alternatives for Risk Assessment Methodologies and Tools
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Nachtigal, Noel M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). System Analytics; Fruetel, Julia A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Gleason, Nathaniel J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Helms, Jovana [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Imbro, Dennis Raymond [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Sumner, Matthew C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis
2013-10-01
The purpose of this document is to provide a basic overview and understanding of risk assessment methodologies and tools from the literature and to assess the suitability of these methodologies and tools for cyber risk assessment. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) performed this review in support of risk modeling activities performed for the Stakeholder Engagement and Cyber Infrastructure Resilience (SECIR) division of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Office of Cybersecurity and Communications (CS&C). The set of methodologies and tools covered in this document is not intended to be exhaustive; instead, it focuses on those that are commonly used in the risk assessment community. The classification of methodologies and tools was performed by a group of analysts with experience in risk analysis and cybersecurity, and the resulting analysis of alternatives has been tailored to address the needs of a cyber risk assessment.
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Comparative risk analysis for the Rocky Flats Plant integrated project planning
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jones, M.E.; Shain, D.I.
1994-01-01
The Rocky Flats Plant is developing, with active stakeholder a comprehensive planning strategy that will support transition of the Rocky Flats Plant from a nuclear weapons production facility to site cleanup and final disposition. Final disposition of the Rocky Flats Plant materials and contaminants requires consideration of the interrelated nature of sitewide problems, such as material movement and disposition, facility and land use endstates, costs relative risks to workers and the public, and waste disposition. Comparative Risk Analysis employs both incremental risk and cumulative risk evaluations to compare risks from postulated options or endstates. These postulated options or endstates can be various remedial alternatives, or future endstate uses of federal agency land. Currently, there does not exist any approved methodology that aggregates various incremental risk estimates. Comparative Risk Analysis has been developed to aggregate various incremental risk estimates to develop a site cumulative risk estimate. This paper discusses development of the Comparative Risk Analysis methodology, stakeholder participation and lessons learned from these challenges
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Source modelling in seismic risk analysis for nuclear power plants
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yucemen, M.S.
1978-12-01
The proposed probabilistic procedure provides a consistent method for the modelling, analysis and updating of uncertainties that are involved in the seismic risk analysis for nuclear power plants. The potential earthquake activity zones are idealized as point, line or area sources. For these seismic source types, expressions to evaluate their contribution to seismic risk are derived, considering all the possible site-source configurations. The seismic risk at a site is found to depend not only on the inherent randomness of the earthquake occurrences with respect to magnitude, time and space, but also on the uncertainties associated with the predicted values of the seismic and geometric parameters, as well as the uncertainty in the attenuation model. The uncertainty due to the attenuation equation is incorporated into the analysis through the use of random correction factors. The influence of the uncertainty resulting from the insufficient information on the seismic parameters and source geometry is introduced into the analysis by computing a mean risk curve averaged over the various alternative assumptions on the parameters and source geometry. Seismic risk analysis is carried for the city of Denizli, which is located in the seismically most active zone of Turkey. The second analysis is for Akkuyu
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The Total Risk Analysis of Large Dams under Flood Hazards
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yu Chen
2018-02-01
Full Text Available Dams and reservoirs are useful systems in water conservancy projects; however, they also pose a high-risk potential for large downstream areas. Flood, as the driving force of dam overtopping, is the main cause of dam failure. Dam floods and their risks are of interest to researchers and managers. In hydraulic engineering, there is a growing tendency to evaluate dam flood risk based on statistical and probabilistic methods that are unsuitable for the situations with rare historical data or low flood probability, so a more reasonable dam flood risk analysis method with fewer application restrictions is needed. Therefore, different from previous studies, this study develops a flood risk analysis method for large dams based on the concept of total risk factor (TRF used initially in dam seismic risk analysis. The proposed method is not affected by the adequacy of historical data or the low probability of flood and is capable of analyzing the dam structure influence, the flood vulnerability of the dam site, and downstream risk as well as estimating the TRF of each dam and assigning corresponding risk classes to each dam. Application to large dams in the Dadu River Basin, Southwestern China, demonstrates that the proposed method provides quick risk estimation and comparison, which can help local management officials perform more detailed dam safety evaluations for useful risk management information.
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Methodology for flood risk analysis for nuclear power plants
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wagner, D.P.; Casada, M.L.; Fussell, J.B.
1984-01-01
The methodology for flood risk analysis described here addresses the effects of a flood on nuclear power plant safety systems. Combining the results of this method with the probability of a flood allows the effects of flooding to be included in a probabilistic risk assessment. The five-step methodology includes accident sequence screening to focus the detailed analysis efforts on the accident sequences that are significantly affected by a flood event. The quantitative results include the flood's contribution to system failure probability, accident sequence occurrence frequency and consequence category occurrence frequency. The analysis can be added to existing risk assessments without a significant loss in efficiency. The results of two example applications show the usefulness of the methodology. Both examples rely on the Reactor Safety Study for the required risk assessment inputs and present changes in the Reactor Safety Study results as a function of flood probability
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Investment appraisal using quantitative risk analysis.
Johansson, Henrik
2002-07-01
Investment appraisal concerned with investments in fire safety systems is discussed. Particular attention is directed at evaluating, in terms of the Bayesian decision theory, the risk reduction that investment in a fire safety system involves. It is shown how the monetary value of the change from a building design without any specific fire protection system to one including such a system can be estimated by use of quantitative risk analysis, the results of which are expressed in terms of a Risk-adjusted net present value. This represents the intrinsic monetary value of investing in the fire safety system. The method suggested is exemplified by a case study performed in an Avesta Sheffield factory.
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Gender Analysis of Risk in Innovation System
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Ayinde, Ope; Muchie, Mammo; Abaniyan, E. O.
2011-01-01
the new maize variety. The analytical tools used include descriptive statistics, regression model; risk utility functions and risk parameter analysis. The result showed that invasion by animals, disease and pest, lack of access to credit wind and price fluctuation were the major risk facing the maize......This study analyzed risk by gender in innovation in Kwara state, Nigeria, using downy mildew resistant maize production as case study. The study employed primary and secondary data. The primary data were collected from well-structured questionnaires administered to both male and female producing...... producers in the area in the usage of the new innovation. The study also revealed that male producers were willing to take risk in the new maize variety production than the female, while the females were more indifferent to the risk involved in the new maize production variety than males. None...
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Multi-Disaster Risk Analysis of Klaten Regency, Central Java, Indonesia
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Candra Dian Lukita Tauhid
2017-09-01
Full Text Available Klaten Regency is located in Central Java Province, Indonesia, ranked as 19th most susceptible area in Indonesia. Among of many disasters those take place in Klaten are floods, landslides, and earthquake, which cause damages and loss of lives. Unfortunately, some areas in Klaten Regency are also very vulnerable to the disasters that often contribute severe damage and loss. This paper presents result of risk analysis due to floods, landslides and earthquake disaster at Klaten Regency. Several parameters or criteria are utilized to describe the level of the disaster intensities. The flood susceptibility parameters are the Topographic Wet Index (TWI, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI, permeability and roughness, as proposed by Kafira, et al. (2015. The landslide susceptibility are the geology, slope, elevation, distance from fault, distance from rivers, rainfall and land use, as suggested by Thearith (2009 whereas the earthquake susceptibility was referred to FEMA P-154 by using the Ss and S1. The vulnerability and risk analysis are carried out by referring to the parameters as stipulated by the Chief Regulation of the National Board of Disaster Management No.2 Year 2012 (Perka Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana- BNPB, concerning the parameters being used for the vulnerability analysis, i.e. population density, poverty ratio, land use, and level of Gross Regional Domestic Product. Further spatial analysis of the risk performs the multi-disaster risk map as a combination between the floods, landslides and earthquake disaster risk in Klaten Regency. The established multi-disaster risk map shows the risk level in the Klaten Regency, i.e., 16.31% at very low risk, 33.01% at low risk, 34.49% at medium risk, at 14.22% high risk and 1.97% at very high risk.
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Smith, Curtis; Knudsen, James; Kvarfordt, Kellie; Wood, Ted
2008-01-01
The Idaho National Laboratory is a primary developer of probabilistic risk and reliability analysis (PRRA) tools, dating back over 35 years. Evolving from mainframe-based software, the current state-of-the-practice has led to the creation of the SAPHIRE software. Currently, agencies such as the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the National Aeronautics and Aerospace Agency, the Department of Energy, and the Department of Defense use version 7 of the SAPHIRE software for many of their risk-informed activities. In order to better understand and appreciate the power of software as part of risk-informed applications, we need to recall that our current analysis methods and solution methods have built upon pioneering work done 30-40 years ago. We contrast this work with the current capabilities in the SAPHIRE analysis package. As part of this discussion, we provide information for both the typical features and special analysis capabilities, which are available. We also present the application and results typically found with state-of-the-practice PRRA models. By providing both a high-level and detailed look at the SAPHIRE software, we give a snapshot in time for the current use of software tools in a risk-informed decision arena
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A scenario-based procedure for seismic risk analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kluegel, J.-U.; Mualchin, L.; Panza, G.F.
2006-12-01
A new methodology for seismic risk analysis based on probabilistic interpretation of deterministic or scenario-based hazard analysis, in full compliance with the likelihood principle and therefore meeting the requirements of modern risk analysis, has been developed. The proposed methodology can easily be adjusted to deliver its output in a format required for safety analysts and civil engineers. The scenario-based approach allows the incorporation of all available information collected in a geological, seismotectonic and geotechnical database of the site of interest as well as advanced physical modelling techniques to provide a reliable and robust deterministic design basis for civil infrastructures. The robustness of this approach is of special importance for critical infrastructures. At the same time a scenario-based seismic hazard analysis allows the development of the required input for probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) as required by safety analysts and insurance companies. The scenario-based approach removes the ambiguity in the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) which relies on the projections of Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) equation. The problems in the validity of G-R projections, because of incomplete to total absence of data for making the projections, are still unresolved. Consequently, the information from G-R must not be used in decisions for design of critical structures or critical elements in a structure. The scenario-based methodology is strictly based on observable facts and data and complemented by physical modelling techniques, which can be submitted to a formalised validation process. By means of sensitivity analysis, knowledge gaps related to lack of data can be dealt with easily, due to the limited amount of scenarios to be investigated. The proposed seismic risk analysis can be used with confidence for planning, insurance and engineering applications. (author)
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2018-01-25
ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) University of Maryland, Baltimore 22 S. Greene St. R Adams Cowley Shock Trauma Center, T5R46 Baltimore, MD 21201 8...the revised trauma score, shock index (= heart rate/systolic blood pressure), and assessment of blood consumption, our M2 (bleeding risk index...11 4.2 Transfusion Prediction Model Evaluation in Special Subsets (Model Stress Test) ....... 15 4.3 Feature Sets and Model Stability
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Ontology-based specification, identification and analysis of perioperative risks.
Uciteli, Alexandr; Neumann, Juliane; Tahar, Kais; Saleh, Kutaiba; Stucke, Stephan; Faulbrück-Röhr, Sebastian; Kaeding, André; Specht, Martin; Schmidt, Tobias; Neumuth, Thomas; Besting, Andreas; Stegemann, Dominik; Portheine, Frank; Herre, Heinrich
2017-09-06
Medical personnel in hospitals often works under great physical and mental strain. In medical decision-making, errors can never be completely ruled out. Several studies have shown that between 50 and 60% of adverse events could have been avoided through better organization, more attention or more effective security procedures. Critical situations especially arise during interdisciplinary collaboration and the use of complex medical technology, for example during surgical interventions and in perioperative settings (the period of time before, during and after surgical intervention). In this paper, we present an ontology and an ontology-based software system, which can identify risks across medical processes and supports the avoidance of errors in particular in the perioperative setting. We developed a practicable definition of the risk notion, which is easily understandable by the medical staff and is usable for the software tools. Based on this definition, we developed a Risk Identification Ontology (RIO) and used it for the specification and the identification of perioperative risks. An agent system was developed, which gathers risk-relevant data during the whole perioperative treatment process from various sources and provides it for risk identification and analysis in a centralized fashion. The results of such an analysis are provided to the medical personnel in form of context-sensitive hints and alerts. For the identification of the ontologically specified risks, we developed an ontology-based software module, called Ontology-based Risk Detector (OntoRiDe). About 20 risks relating to cochlear implantation (CI) have already been implemented. Comprehensive testing has indicated the correctness of the data acquisition, risk identification and analysis components, as well as the web-based visualization of results.
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Safety analysis and risk assessment handbook
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Peterson, V.L.; Colwell, R.G.; Dickey, R.L.
1997-01-01
This Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) provides guidance to the safety analyst at the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site (RFETS) in the preparation of safety analyses and risk assessments. Although the older guidance (the Rocky Flats Risk Assessment Guide) continues to be used for updating the Final Safety Analysis Reports developed in the mid-1980s, this new guidance is used with all new authorization basis documents. With the mission change at RFETS came the need to establish new authorization basis documents for its facilities, whose functions had changed. The methodology and databases for performing the evaluations that support the new authorization basis documents had to be standardized, to avoid the use of different approaches and/or databases for similar accidents in different facilities. This handbook presents this new standardized approach. The handbook begins with a discussion of the requirements of the different types of authorization basis documents and how to choose the one appropriate for the facility to be evaluated. It then walks the analyst through the process of identifying all the potential hazards in the facility, classifying them, and choosing the ones that need to be analyzed further. It then discusses the methods for evaluating accident initiation and progression and covers the basic steps in a safety analysis, including consequence and frequency binning and risk ranking. The handbook lays out standardized approaches for determining the source terms of the various accidents (including airborne release fractions, leakpath factors, etc.), the atmospheric dispersion factors appropriate for Rocky Flats, and the methods for radiological and chemical consequence assessments. The radiological assessments use a radiological open-quotes templateclose quotes, a spreadsheet that incorporates the standard values of parameters, whereas the chemical assessments use the standard codes ARCHIE and ALOHA
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Integrated Risk-Capability Analysis under Deep Uncertainty : An ESDMA Approach
Pruyt, E.; Kwakkel, J.H.
2012-01-01
Integrated risk-capability analysis methodologies for dealing with increasing degrees of complexity and deep uncertainty are urgently needed in an ever more complex and uncertain world. Although scenario approaches, risk assessment methods, and capability analysis methods are used, few organizations
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Risk analysis for nuclear power plants
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Koelzer, W.
1983-01-01
The German risk analysis program for nuclear power plants aiming at the man and the environment is presented. An accident consequence model to calculate the radiological impact and the potential health effects is described. (E.G.) [pt
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Risk factors for radiation-induced hypothyroidism: A Literature-Based Meta-Analysis
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Vogelius, Ivan R; Bentzen, Søren; Maraldo, Maja V
2011-01-01
BACKGROUND: A systematic overview and meta-analysis of studies reporting data on hypothyroidism (HT) after radiation therapy was conducted to identify risk factors for development of HT. METHODS: Published studies were identified from the PubMed and Embase databases and by hand-searching published...... reviews. Studies allowing the extraction of odds ratios (OR) for HT in 1 or more of several candidate clinical risk groups were included. A meta-analysis of the OR for development of HT with or without each of the candidate risk factors was performed. Furthermore, studies allowing the extraction......% risk of HT at a dose of 45 Gy but with considerable variation in the dose response between studies. Chemotherapy and age were not associated with risk of HT in this analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Several clinical risk factors for HT were identified. The risk of HT increases with increasing radiation dose...
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Approach to uncertainty in risk analysis
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Rish, W.R.
1988-08-01
In the Fall of 1985 EPA's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) initiated a project to develop a formal approach to dealing with uncertainties encountered when estimating and evaluating risks to human health and the environment. Based on a literature review of modeling uncertainty, interviews with ORP technical and management staff, and input from experts on uncertainty analysis, a comprehensive approach was developed. This approach recognizes by design the constraints on budget, time, manpower, expertise, and availability of information often encountered in ''real world'' modeling. It is based on the observation that in practice risk modeling is usually done to support a decision process. As such, the approach focuses on how to frame a given risk modeling problem, how to use that framing to select an appropriate mixture of uncertainty analyses techniques, and how to integrate the techniques into an uncertainty assessment that effectively communicates important information and insight to decision-makers. The approach is presented in this report. Practical guidance on characterizing and analyzing uncertainties about model form and quantities and on effectively communicating uncertainty analysis results is included. Examples from actual applications are presented.
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Approach to uncertainty in risk analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rish, W.R.
1988-08-01
In the Fall of 1985 EPA's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) initiated a project to develop a formal approach to dealing with uncertainties encountered when estimating and evaluating risks to human health and the environment. Based on a literature review of modeling uncertainty, interviews with ORP technical and management staff, and input from experts on uncertainty analysis, a comprehensive approach was developed. This approach recognizes by design the constraints on budget, time, manpower, expertise, and availability of information often encountered in ''real world'' modeling. It is based on the observation that in practice risk modeling is usually done to support a decision process. As such, the approach focuses on how to frame a given risk modeling problem, how to use that framing to select an appropriate mixture of uncertainty analyses techniques, and how to integrate the techniques into an uncertainty assessment that effectively communicates important information and insight to decision-makers. The approach is presented in this report. Practical guidance on characterizing and analyzing uncertainties about model form and quantities and on effectively communicating uncertainty analysis results is included. Examples from actual applications are presented
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Failure mode effect analysis and fault tree analysis as a combined methodology in risk management
Wessiani, N. A.; Yoshio, F.
2018-04-01
There have been many studies reported the implementation of Failure Mode Effect Analysis (FMEA) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) as a method in risk management. However, most of the studies usually only choose one of these two methods in their risk management methodology. On the other side, combining these two methods will reduce the drawbacks of each methods when implemented separately. This paper aims to combine the methodology of FMEA and FTA in assessing risk. A case study in the metal company will illustrate how this methodology can be implemented. In the case study, this combined methodology will assess the internal risks that occur in the production process. Further, those internal risks should be mitigated based on their level of risks.
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Meta-analysis: Risk of dry mouth with second generation antidepressants.
Cappetta, Kiley; Beyer, Chad; Johnson, Jessica A; Bloch, Michael H
2018-06-08
The goal of this meta-analysis was to quantify the risk of dry mouth associated with commonly prescribed antidepressant agents and examine the potential implications of medication class, dose, and pharmacodynamics and dose on risk of treatment-induced dry mouth. A PubMed search was conducted to identify double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trials examining the efficacy and tolerability of second generation antidepressant medications for adults with depressive disorders, anxiety disorders, and OCD. A random-effects meta-analysis was used to quantify the pooled risk ratio of treatment-emergent dry mouth with second generation antidepressants compared to placebo. Stratified subgroup analysis and meta-regression was utilized to further examine the effects antidepressant agent, class, dosage, indication, and receptor affinity profile on the measured risk of dry mouth. 99 trials involving 20,868 adults. SNRIs (Relative Risk (RR)=2.24, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.95-2.58, z=11.2, pz=5.8, pz=10.32, pz=5.85, pz=3.26, p=0.001) and Alpha-2 (PE=0.49, 95% CI: 0.22-0.75, z=3.64, pz=2.10, p<0.05) was significantly associated with increased risk of dry mouth. The current meta-analysis suggests that SSRIs, SNRIs, and atypical antidepressants are all associated with varying degrees of increased risk of dry mouth. SNRIs were associated with a significantly greater risk of dry mouth compared to SSRIs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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The Role of Drinking Severity on Sex Risk Behavior and HIV Exposure among Illicit Drug Users
Scherer, Michael; Trenz, Rebecca; Harrell, Paul; Mauro, Pia; Latimer, William
2015-01-01
Objectives The current study examined how drinking severity among injection and non-injection drug users is associated with sex risk behaviors and risk of HIV exposure. Methods The study is a secondary analysis of an investigation of risk factors among drug users in Baltimore known as the NEURO-HIV Epidemiologic Study. Participants (N = 557) completed an interview, self-reported 30-day alcohol use, lifetime injection and non-injection drug use, and provided blood samples to screen for HIV. Participants were grouped into one of three drinking severity conditions: Abstinent (no reported alcohol use in prior 30-days), Moderate Alcohol Use (≤30 drinks for females, or ≤ 60 drinks for males), or Problematic Alcohol Use (>30 drinks for females, or >60 drinks for males). Drinking severity groups were significantly different on lifetime injection drug use, heroin injection, snorting/sniffing cocaine, and smoking crack. Results Logistic regression analyses found problematic alcohol users to be more likely than alcohol abstainers to inject drugs before or during sex (AOR = 5.78; 95% CI = 2.07-16.10), and more likely than moderate alcohol users to use alcohol before/during sex (AOR = 4.96; 95% CI = 2.09-11.81), inject drugs before/during sex (AOR = 2.96; 95% CI = 1.29-6.80) and to be HIV+ among Black participants (AOR = 2.72; 95% CI = 1.14-6.49). Conclusions These results outline the necessity for research and clinical intervention among this population to reduce sex risk behaviors and potential HIV exposure, while highlighting the need to examine drinking severity as a predictor of sex risk behaviors. PMID:23617865
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RISK ANALYSIS IN MILK PROCESSING
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
I. PIRVUTOIU
2008-05-01
Full Text Available This paper aimed to evaluate Risk bankruptcy using “Score Method” based on Canon and Holder’s Model. The data were collected from the Balance Sheet and Profit and Loss Account for the period 2005-2007, recorded by a Meat processing Plant (Rador Commercial Company .The study has put in evidence the financial situation of the company,the level of the main financial ratios fundamenting the calculation of Z score function value in the three years The low values of Z score function recorded every year reflects that the company is still facing backruptcy. However , the worst situation was recorded in the years 2005 and 2006, when baknruptcy risk was ranging between 70 – 80 % . In the year 2007, the risk bankruptcy was lower, ranging between 50-70 % , as Z function recorded a value lower than 4 .For Meat processing companies such an analysis is compulsory at present as long as business environment is very risky in our country.
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Quantitative risk analysis preoperational of gas pipeline
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Manfredi, Carlos; Bispo, Gustavo G.; Esteves, Alvaro [Gie S.A., Buenos Aires (Argentina)
2009-07-01
The purpose of this analysis is to predict how it can be affected the individual risk and the public's general security due to the operation of a gas pipeline. In case that the single or social risks are considered intolerable, compared with the international standards, to be recommended measures of mitigation of the risk associated to the operation until levels that can be considered compatible with the best practices in the industry. The quantitative risk analysis calculates the probability of occurrence of an event based on the frequency of occurrence of the same one and it requires a complex mathematical treatment. The present work has as objective to develop a calculation methodology based on the previously mentioned publication. This calculation methodology is centered in defining the frequencies of occurrence of events, according to representative database of each case in study. Besides, it settles down the consequences particularly according to the considerations of each area and the different possibilities of interferences with the gas pipeline in study. For each one of the interferences a typical curve of ignition probabilities is developed in function from the distance to the pipe. (author)
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Risk and Interdependencies in Critical Infrastructures A Guideline for Analysis
Utne, Ingrid; Vatn, Jørn
2012-01-01
Today’s society is completely dependent on critical networks such as water supply, sewage, electricity, ICT and transportation. Risk and vulnerability analyses are needed to grasp the impact of threats and hazards. However, these become quite complex as there are strong interdependencies both within and between infrastructure systems. Risk and Interdependencies in Critical Infrastructures: A guideline for analysis provides methods for analyzing risks and interdependencies of critical infrastructures. A number of analysis approaches are described and are adapted to each of these infrastructures. Various approaches are also revised, and all are supported by several examples and illustrations. Particular emphasis is given to the analysis of various interdependencies that often exist between the infrastructures. Risk and Interdependencies in Critical Infrastructures: A guideline for analysis provides a good tool to identify the hazards that are threatening your infrastructures, and will enhance the un...
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WE-B-BRC-02: Risk Analysis and Incident Learning
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fraass, B.
2016-01-01
Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. We therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation oncology
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WE-B-BRC-02: Risk Analysis and Incident Learning
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Fraass, B. [Cedars Sinai Medical Center (United States)
2016-06-15
Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. We therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation oncology
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Analysis of interactions among barriers in project risk management
Dandage, Rahul V.; Mantha, Shankar S.; Rane, Santosh B.; Bhoola, Vanita
2018-03-01
In the context of the scope, time, cost, and quality constraints, failure is not uncommon in project management. While small projects have 70% chances of success, large projects virtually have no chance of meeting the quadruple constraints. While there is no dearth of research on project risk management, the manifestation of barriers to project risk management is a less dwelt topic. The success of project management is oftentimes based on the understanding of barriers to effective risk management, application of appropriate risk management methodology, proactive leadership to avoid barriers, workers' attitude, adequate resources, organizational culture, and involvement of top management. This paper represents various risk categories and barriers to risk management in domestic and international projects through literature survey and feedback from project professionals. After analysing the various modelling methods used in project risk management literature, interpretive structural modelling (ISM) and MICMAC analysis have been used to analyse interactions among the barriers and prioritize them. The analysis indicates that lack of top management support, lack of formal training, and lack of addressing cultural differences are the high priority barriers, among many others.
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Vedovato, Gabriela M.; Surkan, Pamela J.; Jones-Smith, Jessica; Steeves, Elizabeth Anderson; Han, Eunkyung; Trude, Angela C.B.; Kharmats, Anna Y.; Gittelsohn, Joel
2016-01-01
Objective To examine associations between food insecurity, excess body weight, psychosocial factors and food behaviors among low-income African-American (AA) families. Design Cross-sectional survey of participants in the baseline evaluation of the B’More Healthy Communities for Kids (BHCK) obesity prevention trial. We collected data on socioeconomic factors, food source destinations, acquiring food, preparation methods, psychosocial factors, beliefs and attitudes, participation in food assistance programs, anthropometry and food security. We used principal component analysis to identify patterns of food source destinations and logistic regression to examine associations. Setting Fourteen low-income, predominantly AA neighborhoods in Baltimore City. Subjects 298 adult caregiver-child (10–14 years old) dyads. Results 41.6% of households had some level of food insecurity, and 12.4% experienced some level of hunger. Food insecure participants with hunger were significantly more likely to be unemployed and to have lower incomes. We found high rates of excess body weight (overweight and obese) among adults and children (82.8% and 37.9% food insecure without hunger; 89.2% and 45.9% with hunger, respectively), although there were no significant differences by security status. Food source usage patterns, food acquisition, preparation, knowledge, self-efficacy and intentions did not differ by food security. Food security was associated with perceptions that healthy foods are affordable and convenient. Greater caregiver body satisfaction was associated with food insecurity and excess body weight. Conclusions In this setting, obesity and food insecurity are major problems. For many food insecure families, perceptions of healthy foods may serve as additional barriers to their purchase and consumption. PMID:26441159
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Risk analysis for earth dam overtopping
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mo Chongxun
2008-06-01
Full Text Available In this paper, a model of overtopping risk under the joint effects of floods and wind waves, which is based on risk analysis theory and takes into account the uncertainties of floods, wind waves, reservoir capacity and discharge capacity of the spillway, is proposed and applied to the Chengbihe Reservoir in Baise City in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. The simulated results indicate that the flood control limiting level can be raised by 0.40 m under the condition that the reservoir overtopping risk is controlled within a mean variance of 5×10−6. As a result, the reservoir storage will increase to 16 million m3 and electrical energy generation and other functions of the reservoir will also increase greatly.
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Essays on Systemic Risk : An analysis from multiple perspectives
S. Muns (Sander)
2016-01-01
markdownabstractThis thesis is about systemic risk in the financial sector. It considers several aspects of systemic risk. It is a building block for an analysis of the impact of systemic risk on the real economy. It appears that stocks in the financial industry show a strong interdependence
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Quantitative risk analysis as a basis for emergency planning
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Yogui, Regiane Tiemi Teruya [Bureau Veritas do Brasil, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Macedo, Eduardo Soares de [Instituto de Pesquisas Tecnologicas (IPT), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)
2009-07-01
Several environmental accidents happened in Brazil and in the world during the 70's and 80's. This strongly motivated the preparation for emergencies in the chemical and petrochemical industries. Environmental accidents affect the environment and the communities that are neighbor to the industrial facilities. The present study aims at subsidizing and providing orientation to develop Emergency Planning from the data obtained on Quantitative Risk Analysis, elaborated according to the Technical Standard P4.261/03 from CETESB (Sao Paulo Environmental Agency). It was observed, during the development of the research, that the data generated on these studies need a complementation and a deeper analysis, so that it is possible to use them on the Emergency Plans. The main issues that were analyzed and discussed on this study were the reevaluation of hazard identification for the emergency plans, the consequences and vulnerability analysis for the response planning, the risk communication, and the preparation to respond to the emergencies of the communities exposed to manageable risks. As a result, the study intends to improve the interpretation and use of the data deriving from the Quantitative Risk Analysis to develop the emergency plans. (author)
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Risk analysis of radioactive waste management systems in Germany
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wingender, H.J.
1978-01-01
Within the scope of a system study, ''Radioactive wastes in the Federal Republic of Germany,'' performed from 1974 through 1976, the questions of risk assessment were investigated. A risk analysis of a high-level waste (HLW) management system was performed. The results of the HLW tank storage are that the risk expectation value is 700 nJ/kg x RBE (7 x 10 -5 rem) per year for atmospheric release. The discussion of the main contributing accidents shows the possibility of reducing the risk by a technical means. A qualitative comparison on the release basis with the results of the WASH-1400 report shows significant differences that can be explained by the different methodologies applied. The risk analysis activities have led to a comprehensive risk assessment project, which was recently started. The projected includes research and development tasks concerning nuclide migration and transport to the ecosphere, nuclide mobilization by various mechanisms, methodology problems, data collection, computer code development, as well as risk analyses of waste management facilities. It is intended to round off the project with risk analyses of spent fuel element transport, storage, and reprocessing
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Risk analysis tools for force protection and infrastructure/asset protection
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jaeger, C.D.; Duggan, R.A.; Paulus, W.K.
1998-01-01
The Security Systems and Technology Center at Sandia National Laboratories has for many years been involved in the development and use of vulnerability assessment and risk analysis tools. In particular, two of these tools, ASSESS and JTS, have been used extensively for Department of Energy facilities. Increasingly, Sandia has been called upon to evaluate critical assets and infrastructures, support DoD force protection activities and assist in the protection of facilities from terrorist attacks using weapons of mass destruction. Sandia is involved in many different activities related to security and force protection and is expanding its capabilities by developing new risk analysis tools to support a variety of users. One tool, in the very early stages of development, is EnSURE, Engineered Surety Using the Risk Equation. EnSURE addresses all of the risk equation and integrates the many components into a single, tool-supported process to help determine the most cost-effective ways to reduce risk. This paper will briefly discuss some of these risk analysis tools within the EnSURE framework
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Operational Risk Management A Practical Approach to Intelligent Data Analysis
Kenett, Ron
2010-01-01
The book will introduce modern Operational Risk (OpR) Management and illustrates the various sources of OpR assessment and OpR mitigation. This book discusses how various data sources can be integrated and analyzed and how OpR is synergetic to other risk management activities such as Financial Risk Management and Internationalization. The topics will include state of the art technology such as semantic analysis, ontology engineering, data mining and statistical analysis.
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Intentional risk management through complex networks analysis
Chapela, Victor; Moral, Santiago; Romance, Miguel
2015-01-01
This book combines game theory and complex networks to examine intentional technological risk through modeling. As information security risks are in constant evolution, the methodologies and tools to manage them must evolve to an ever-changing environment. A formal global methodology is explained in this book, which is able to analyze risks in cyber security based on complex network models and ideas extracted from the Nash equilibrium. A risk management methodology for IT critical infrastructures is introduced which provides guidance and analysis on decision making models and real situations. This model manages the risk of succumbing to a digital attack and assesses an attack from the following three variables: income obtained, expense needed to carry out an attack, and the potential consequences for an attack. Graduate students and researchers interested in cyber security, complex network applications and intentional risk will find this book useful as it is filled with a number of models, methodologies a...
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Arenal-type pyroclastic flows: A probabilistic event tree risk analysis
Meloy, Anthony F.
2006-09-01
A quantitative hazard-specific scenario-modelling risk analysis is performed at Arenal volcano, Costa Rica for the newly recognised Arenal-type pyroclastic flow (ATPF) phenomenon using an event tree framework. These flows are generated by the sudden depressurisation and fragmentation of an active basaltic andesite lava pool as a result of a partial collapse of the crater wall. The deposits of this type of flow include angular blocks and juvenile clasts, which are rarely found in other types of pyroclastic flow. An event tree analysis (ETA) is a useful tool and framework in which to analyse and graphically present the probabilities of the occurrence of many possible events in a complex system. Four event trees are created in the analysis, three of which are extended to investigate the varying individual risk faced by three generic representatives of the surrounding community: a resident, a worker, and a tourist. The raw numerical risk estimates determined by the ETA are converted into a set of linguistic expressions (i.e. VERY HIGH, HIGH, MODERATE etc.) using an established risk classification scale. Three individually tailored semi-quantitative risk maps are then created from a set of risk conversion tables to show how the risk varies for each individual in different areas around the volcano. In some cases, by relocating from the north to the south, the level of risk can be reduced by up to three classes. While the individual risk maps may be broadly applicable, and therefore of interest to the general community, the risk maps and associated probability values generated in the ETA are intended to be used by trained professionals and government agencies to evaluate the risk and effectively manage the long-term development of infrastructure and habitation. With the addition of fresh monitoring data, the combination of both long- and short-term event trees would provide a comprehensive and consistent method of risk analysis (both during and pre-crisis), and as such
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Analysis of human error and organizational deficiency in events considering risk significance
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lee, Yong Suk; Kim, Yoonik; Kim, Say Hyung; Kim, Chansoo; Chung, Chang Hyun; Jung, Won Dea
2004-01-01
In this study, we analyzed human and organizational deficiencies in the trip events of Korean nuclear power plants. K-HPES items were used in human error analysis, and the organizational factors by Jacobs and Haber were used for organizational deficiency analysis. We proposed the use of CCDP as a risk measure to consider risk information in prioritizing K-HPES items and organizational factors. Until now, the risk significance of events has not been considered in human error and organizational deficiency analysis. Considering the risk significance of events in the process of analysis is necessary for effective enhancement of nuclear power plant safety by focusing on causes of human error and organizational deficiencies that are associated with significant risk
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Analysis of risk assessment methods for goods trucking
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yunyazova A.O.
2018-04-01
Full Text Available the article considers models of risk assessment that can be applied to cargo transportation, for forecasting possible damage in the form of financial and material costs in order to reduce the percentage of probability of their occurrence. The analysis of risk by the method «Criterion. Event. Rule" is represented. This method is based on the collection of information by various methods, assigning an assessment to the identified risks, ranking and formulating a report on the analysis. It can be carried out as a fully manual mechanical method of information collecting and performing calculations or can be brought to an automated level from data collection to the delivery of finished results (but in this case some nuances that could significantly influence the outcome of the analysis can be ignored. The expert method is of particular importance, since it relies directly on human experience. In this case, a special role is played by the human factor. The collection of information and the assigned assessments to risk groups depend on the extent to which experts agree on this issue. The smaller the fluctuations in the values of the estimates of the experts, the more accurate and optimal the results will be.
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Cable Hot Shorts and Circuit Analysis in Fire Risk Assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
LaChance, Jeffrey; Nowlen, Steven P.; Wyant, Frank
1999-01-01
Under existing methods of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), the analysis of fire-induced circuit faults has typically been conducted on a simplistic basis. In particular, those hot-short methodologies that have been applied remain controversial in regards to the scope of the assessments, the underlying methods, and the assumptions employed. To address weaknesses in fire PRA methodologies, the USNRC has initiated a fire risk analysis research program that includes a task for improving the tools for performing circuit analysis. The objective of this task is to obtain a better understanding of the mechanisms linking fire-induced cable damage to potentially risk-significant failure modes of power, control, and instrumentation cables. This paper discusses the current status of the circuit analysis task
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Impact Analysis for Risks in Informatics Systems
Baicu, Floarea; Baches, Maria Alexandra
2013-01-01
In this paper are presented methods of impact analysis on informatics system security accidents, qualitative and quantitative methods, starting with risk and informational system security definitions. It is presented the relationship between the risks of exploiting vulnerabilities of security system, security level of these informatics systems, probability of exploiting the weak points subject to financial losses of a company, respectively impact of a security accident on the company. Herewit...
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Risk D and D Rapid Prototype: Scenario Documentation and Analysis Tool
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Unwin, Stephen D.; Seiple, Timothy E.
2009-01-01
Report describes process and methodology associated with a rapid prototype tool for integrating project risk analysis and health and safety risk analysis for decontamination and decommissioning projects. The objective of the Decontamination and Decommissioning (D and D) Risk Management Evaluation and Work Sequencing Standardization Project under DOE EM-23 is to recommend or develop practical risk-management tools for decommissioning of nuclear facilities. PNNL has responsibility under this project for recommending or developing computer-based tools that facilitate the evaluation of risks in order to optimize the sequencing of D and D work. PNNL's approach is to adapt, augment, and integrate existing resources rather than to develop a new suite of tools. Methods for the evaluation of H and S risks associated with work in potentially hazardous environments are well-established. Several approaches exist which, collectively, are referred to as process hazard analysis (PHA). A PHA generally involves the systematic identification of accidents, exposures, and other adverse events associated with a given process or work flow. This identification process is usually achieved in a brainstorming environment or by other means of eliciting informed opinion. The likelihoods of adverse events (scenarios) and their associated consequence severities are estimated against pre-defined scales, based on which risk indices are then calculated. A similar process is encoded in various project risk software products that facilitate the quantification of schedule and cost risks associated with adverse scenarios. However, risk models do not generally capture both project risk and H and S risk. The intent of the project reported here is to produce a tool that facilitates the elicitation, characterization, and documentation of both project risk and H and S risk based on defined sequences of D and D activities. By considering alternative D and D sequences, comparison of the predicted risks can
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A risk-informed perspective on deterministic safety analysis of nuclear power plants
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wan, P.T.
2009-01-01
In this work, the deterministic safety analysis (DSA) approach to nuclear safety is examined from a risk-informed perspective. One objective of safety analysis of a nuclear power plant is to demonstrate via analysis that the risks to the public from events or accidents that are within the design basis of the power plant are within acceptable levels with a high degree of assurance. This nuclear safety analysis objective can be translated into two requirements on the risk estimates of design basis events or accidents: the nominal risk estimate to the public must be shown to be within acceptable levels, and the uncertainty in the risk estimates must be shown to be small on an absolute or relative basis. The DSA approach combined with the defense-in-depth (DID) principle is a simplified safety analysis approach that attempts to achieve the above safety analysis objective in the face of potentially large uncertainties in the risk estimates of a nuclear power plant by treating the various uncertainty contributors using a stylized conservative binary (yes-no) approach, and applying multiple overlapping physical barriers and defense levels to protect against the release of radioactivity from the reactor. It is shown that by focusing on the consequence aspect of risk, the previous two nuclear safety analysis requirements on risk can be satisfied with the DSA-DID approach to nuclear safety. It is also shown the use of multiple overlapping physical barriers and defense levels in the traditional DSA-DID approach to nuclear safety is risk-informed in the sense that it provides a consistently high level of confidence in the validity of the safety analysis results for various design basis events or accidents with a wide range of frequency of occurrence. It is hoped that by providing a linkage between the consequence analysis approach in DSA with a risk-informed perspective, greater understanding of the limitation and capability of the DSA approach is obtained. (author)
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Patterns and risk factors for helminthiasis in rural children aged ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA. Corresponding author: ... in rural Bangladesh using data in a birth cohort in rural Mirzapur.18 ... intervention strategies to control STH.
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Risk factor analysis of equine strongyle resistance to anthelmintics
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
G. Sallé
2017-12-01
Full Text Available Intestinal strongyles are the most problematic endoparasites of equids as a result of their wide distribution and the spread of resistant isolates throughout the world. While abundant literature can be found on the extent of anthelmintic resistance across continents, empirical knowledge about associated risk factors is missing. This study brought together results from anthelmintic efficacy testing and risk factor analysis to provide evidence-based guidelines in the field. It involved 688 horses from 39 French horse farms and riding schools to both estimate Faecal Egg Count Reduction (FECR after anthelmintic treatment and to interview farm and riding school managers about their practices. Risk factors associated with reduced anthelmintic efficacy in equine strongyles were estimated across drugs using a marginal modelling approach. Results demonstrated ivermectin efficacy (96.3% ± 14.5% FECR, the inefficacy of fenbendazole (42.8% ± 33.4% FECR and an intermediate profile for pyrantel (90.3% ± 19.6% FECR. Risk factor analysis provided support to advocate for FEC-based treatment regimens combined with individual anthelmintic dosage and the enforcement of tighter biosecurity around horse introduction. The combination of these measures resulted in a decreased risk of drug resistance (relative risk of 0.57, p = 0.02. Premises falling under this typology also relied more on their veterinarians suggesting practitionners play an important role in the sustainability of anthelmintic usage. Similarly, drug resistance risk was halved in premises with frequent pasture rotation and with stocking rate below five horses/ha (relative risk of 0.53, p < 0.01. This is the first empirical risk factor analysis for anthelmintic resistance in equids. Our findings should guide the implementation of more sustained strongyle management in the field. Keywords: Horse, Nematode, Anthelmintic resistance, Strongyle, Cyathostomin
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Stress Analysis in Managing the Region’s Budget Risks
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Natalya Pavlovna Pazdnikova
2014-09-01
Full Text Available The article addresses the implementation of budget risk management methods into the practices of governmental authorities. Drawing on the example of a particular region the article aims to demonstrate the possible methods of budget risk management. The authors refine the existing approaches to the notion of risk in its relation to budget system by introducing the notion of “budget risk.” Here the focus is the risk of default of budget spending in full which causes underfunding of territories and decrease in quality of life in the region. The authors have particularized the classification of budget risks and grouped together the criteria and factors which significantly influence the assessment and choice of method to manage budget risks. They hypothesize that budget risk is a financial risk. Therefore, the methods of financial risks management can be applied to budget risks management. The authors suggest a methodological approach to risk assessment based on correlation and regression analysis of program financing. The application of Kendall rank correlation coefficient allowed to assess the efficiency of budget spending on the implementation of state programs in Perm Krai. Two clusters — “Nature management and infrastructure” and “Public security” — turned out to be in the zone of high budget risk. The method of stress analysis, which consists in calculating Value at Risk (VaR, was applied to budget risks that in terms of probability are classified as critical. In order to assess risk as probability rate, the amount of Perm Krai deficit budget was calculated as induced variable from budget revenues and spending. The results demonstrate that contemporary management of public resources in the regions calls for the implementation of new management tools of higher quality and budget risk management is one of them.
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Explaining HIV Risk Multiplexity: A Social Network Analysis.
Felsher, Marisa; Koku, Emmanuel
2018-04-21
Risk multiplexity (i.e., overlap in drug-use, needle exchange and sexual relations) is a known risk factor for HIV. However, little is known about predictors of multiplexity. This study uses egocentric data from the Colorado Springs study to examine how individual, behavioral and social network factors influence engagement in multiplex risk behavior. Analyses revealed that compared to Whites, Hispanics were significantly more likely to engage in risk multiplexity and Blacks less so. Respondents who were similar to each other (e.g., in terms of race) had significantly higher odds of being in risk multiplex relationships, and respondents' risk perceptions and network size were significantly associated with engaging in multiplex risk behaviors. Findings from interaction analysis showed the effect of knowing someone with HIV on the odds of multiplexity depends partly on whether respondents' know their HIV status. Findings suggest that demographics, HIV behaviors and network factors impact engagement in multiplex risk behaviors, highlighting the need for multi-level interventions aimed at reducing HIV risk behavior.
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Dynamic risk analysis using bow-tie approach
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Khakzad, Nima; Khan, Faisal; Amyotte, Paul
2012-01-01
Accident probability estimation is a common and central step to all quantitative risk assessment methods. Among many techniques available, bow-tie model (BT) is very popular because it represent the accident scenario altogether including causes and consequences. However, it suffers a static structure limiting its application in real-time monitoring and probability updating which are key factors in dynamic risk analysis. The present work is focused on using BT approach in a dynamic environment in which the occurrence probability of accident consequences changes. In this method, on one hand, failure probability of primary events of BT, leading to the top event, are developed using physical reliability models, and constantly revised as physical parameters (e.g., pressure, velocity, dimension, etc) change. And, on the other hand, the failure probability of safety barriers of the BT are periodically updated using Bayes’ theorem as new information becomes available over time. Finally, the resulting, updated BT is used to estimate the posterior probability of the consequences which in turn results in an updated risk profile. - Highlights: ► A methodology is proposed to make bow-tie method adapted for dynamic risk analysis. ► Physical reliability models are used to revise the top event. ► Bayes’ theorem is used to update the probability of safety barriers. ► The number of accidents in sequential time intervals is used to form likelihood function. ► The risk profile is updated for varying physical parameters and for different times.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Foroogh Ghasemi
2018-05-01
Full Text Available An organization’s strategic objectives are accomplished through portfolios. However, the materialization of portfolio risks may affect a portfolio’s sustainable success and the achievement of those objectives. Moreover, project interdependencies and cause–effect relationships between risks create complexity for portfolio risk analysis. This paper presents a model using Bayesian network (BN methodology for modeling and analyzing portfolio risks. To develop this model, first, portfolio-level risks and risks caused by project interdependencies are identified. Then, based on their cause–effect relationships all portfolio risks are organized in a BN. Conditional probability distributions for this network are specified and the Bayesian networks method is used to estimate the probability of portfolio risk. This model was applied to a portfolio of a construction company located in Iran and proved effective in analyzing portfolio risk probability. Furthermore, the model provided valuable information for selecting a portfolio’s projects and making strategic decisions.
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rodrigues, George; Lukka, Himu; Warde, Padraig; Brundage, Michael; Souhami, Luis; Crook, Juanita; Cury, Fabio; Catton, Charles; Mok, Gary; Martin, Andre-Guy; Vigneault, Eric; Morris, Jim; Warner, Andrew; Gonzalez Maldonado, Sandra; Pickles, Tom
2013-01-01
Background: The Genitourinary Radiation Oncologists of Canada (GUROC) published a three-group risk stratification (RS) system to assist prostate cancer decision-making in 2001. The objective of this project is to use the ProCaRS database to statistically model the predictive accuracy and clinical utility of a proposed new multi-group RS schema. Methods: The RS analyses utilized the ProCaRS database that consists of 7974 patients from four Canadian institutions. Recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) was utilized to explore the sub-stratification of groups defined by the existing three-group GUROC scheme. 10-fold cross-validated C-indices and the Net Reclassification Index were both used to assess multivariable models and compare the predictive accuracy of existing and proposed RS systems, respectively. Results: The recursive partitioning analysis has suggested that the existing GUROC classification system could be altered to accommodate as many as six separate and statistical unique groups based on differences in BFFS (C-index 0.67 and AUC 0.70). GUROC low-risk patients would be divided into new favorable-low and low-risk groups based on PSA ⩽6 and PSA >6. GUROC intermediate-risk patients can be subclassified into low-intermediate and high-intermediate groups. GUROC high-intermediate-risk is defined as existing GUROC intermediate-risk with PSA >=10 AND either T2b/c disease or T1T2a disease with Gleason 7. GUROC high-risk patients would be subclassified into an additional extreme-risk group (GUROC high-risk AND (positive cores ⩾87.5% OR PSA >30). Conclusions: Proposed RS subcategories have been identified by a RPA of the ProCaRS database
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THE ANALYSIS OF RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS WITHIN MANAGEMENT
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
ROMANESCU MARCEL LAURENTIU
2016-10-01
Full Text Available This article highlights the risk analysis within management, focusing on how a company could practicaly integrate the risks management in the existing leading process. Subsequently, it is exemplified the way of manage risk effectively, which gives numerous advantages to all firms, including improving their decision-making process. All these lead to the conclusion that the degree of risk specific to companies is very high, but if managers make the best decisions then it can diminish it and all business activitiy and its income are not influenced by factors that could disturb in a negative way .
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Poverty and sexual concurrency: a case study of STI risk.
Tsui, Emma K; Leonard, Lori; Lenoir, Chavonne; Ellen, Jonathan M
2008-08-01
This paper is about sexual concurrency, or maintaining multiple sexual partnerships that overlap in time. Sexual concurrency is a concept that is used in the field of public health to explain the spread of sexually transmitted diseases. Sexual concurrency has also been proposed as a site of intervention to reduce sexually transmitted infection (STI) rates, particularly among those populations who carry the heaviest STI burden: adolescents and African Americans. In this paper, we use ethnographic data collected from a group of African American adolescents living in Baltimore to examine the socially produced configurations of risks and relationships that are obscured by the term sexual concurrency. The data we present show the limits of this concept, and suggest that structural reforms, including improvements to education, drug treatment, and work opportunities, are necessary to reduce racial disparities in STI rates.
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Use-related risk analysis for medical devices based on improved FMEA.
Liu, Long; Shuai, Ma; Wang, Zhu; Li, Ping
2012-01-01
In order to effectively analyze and control use-related risk of medical devices, quantitative methodologies must be applied. Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) is a proactive technique for error detection and risk reduction. In this article, an improved FMEA based on Fuzzy Mathematics and Grey Relational Theory is developed to better carry out user-related risk analysis for medical devices. As an example, the analysis process using this improved FMEA method for a certain medical device (C-arm X-ray machine) is described.
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Synthesis of Enterprise and Value-Based Methods for Multiattribute Risk Analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kenley, C. Robert; Collins, John W.; Beck, John M.; Heydt, Harold J.; Garcia, Chad B.
2001-01-01
This paper describes a method for performing multiattribute decision analysis to prioritize ap-proaches to handling risks during the development and operation of complex socio-technical systems. The method combines risk categorization based on enterprise views, risk prioritization of the categories based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), and more standard probability-consequence ratings schemes. We also apply value-based testing me-thods used in software development to prioritize risk-handling approaches. We describe a tool that synthesizes the methods and performs a multiattribute analysis of the technical and pro-grammatic risks on the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) enterprise.
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Correa Lizarazu, X.
2013-01-01
The power point presentation Colombia risk evaluation experiences, sanitarian regulations evolution, chemical dangers food, biological dangers food, codex alimentarius, trade, industrial effects, dangers identification, data collection and risk profile
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The approach to risk analysis in three industries
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Garrick, B.J.
1991-01-01
It is the purpose of this paper to review how risk and safety analysis is performed in the three major industries of nuclear power, space flight, and chemical and petroleum processes. The underlying reason for such a review is the belief that efficiencies and safety enhancements may result from a greater exchange of risk assessment technology between these industries. The thrust of this discussion related to the engineered systems involved in the three industries. The industries are very different. The chemical industry epitomizes the highly competitive private sector and its bottom-line emphasis; the nuclear power industry is unique by the degree to which it is regulated; and the space industry is essentially a government business just beginning to have commercial implications. Institutional differences are extreme; however, from a societal needs, and their safety implications have a far reaching impact on public opinion and support. In reviewing the risk and safety analysis activities, particular attention is given to the use of such quantitative approaches as probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) as it has evolved in the nuclear power industry
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Risk analysis and priority setting for environmental policy
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Travis, C.C.
1991-01-01
There is a growing realization that the demand for funding to correct our nation's environmental problems will soon outstrip available resources. In the hazardous waste area alone, the estimated cost of remediating Superfund sites ranges from $32 billion to $80 billion. Numerous other areas of competing for these same financial resources. These include ozone depletion, global warming, the protection of endangered species and wetlands, toxic air pollution, carcinogenic pesticides, and urban smog. In response to this imbalance in the supply and demand for national funds, several political constituencies are calling for the use of risk assessment as a tool in the prioritization of research and budget needs. Comparative risk analysis offers a logical framework in which to organize information about complex environmental problems. Risk analysis allows policy analysts to make resource allocation decisions on the basis of scientific judgement rather than political expediency
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Body mass index and risk of BPH: a meta-analysis.
Wang, S; Mao, Q; Lin, Y; Wu, J; Wang, X; Zheng, X; Xie, L
2012-09-01
Epidemiological studies have reported conflicting results relating obesity to BPH. A meta-analysis of cohort and case-control studies was conducted to pool the risk estimates of the association between obesity and BPH. Eligible studies were retrieved by both computer searches and review of references. We analyzed abstracted data with random effects models to obtain the summary risk estimates. Dose-response meta-analysis was performed for studies reporting categorical risk estimates for a series of exposure levels. A total of 19 studies met the inclusion criteria of the meta-analysis. Positive association with body mass index (BMI) was observed in BPH and lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS) combined group (odds ratio=1.27, 95% confidence intervals 1.05-1.53). In subgroup analysis, BMI exhibited a positive dose-response relationship with BPH/LUTS in population-based case-control studies and a marginal positive association was observed between risk of BPH and increased BMI. However, no association between BPH/LUTS and BMI was observed in other subgroups stratified by study design, geographical region or primary outcome. The overall current literatures suggested that BMI was associated with increased risk of BPH. Further efforts should be made to confirm these findings and clarify the underlying biological mechanisms.
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Adversarial risk analysis with incomplete information: a level-k approach.
Rothschild, Casey; McLay, Laura; Guikema, Seth
2012-07-01
This article proposes, develops, and illustrates the application of level-k game theory to adversarial risk analysis. Level-k reasoning, which assumes that players play strategically but have bounded rationality, is useful for operationalizing a Bayesian approach to adversarial risk analysis. It can be applied in a broad class of settings, including settings with asynchronous play and partial but incomplete revelation of early moves. Its computational and elicitation requirements are modest. We illustrate the approach with an application to a simple defend-attack model in which the defender's countermeasures are revealed with a probability less than one to the attacker before he decides on how or whether to attack. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.
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Structural reliability analysis applied to pipeline risk analysis
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Gardiner, M. [GL Industrial Services, Loughborough (United Kingdom); Mendes, Renato F.; Donato, Guilherme V.P. [PETROBRAS S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)
2009-07-01
Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) of pipelines requires two main components to be provided. These are models of the consequences that follow from some loss of containment incident, and models for the likelihood of such incidents occurring. This paper describes how PETROBRAS have used Structural Reliability Analysis for the second of these, to provide pipeline- and location-specific predictions of failure frequency for a number of pipeline assets. This paper presents an approach to estimating failure rates for liquid and gas pipelines, using Structural Reliability Analysis (SRA) to analyze the credible basic mechanisms of failure such as corrosion and mechanical damage. SRA is a probabilistic limit state method: for a given failure mechanism it quantifies the uncertainty in parameters to mathematical models of the load-resistance state of a structure and then evaluates the probability of load exceeding resistance. SRA can be used to benefit the pipeline risk management process by optimizing in-line inspection schedules, and as part of the design process for new construction in pipeline rights of way that already contain multiple lines. A case study is presented to show how the SRA approach has recently been used on PETROBRAS pipelines and the benefits obtained from it. (author)
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Dealing with phenomenological uncertainty in risk analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Theofanous, T.G.
1994-01-01
The Risk-Oriented Accident Analysis Methodology (ROAAM) is summarized and developed further towards a formal definition. The key ideas behind the methodology and these more formal aspects are also presented and discussed
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Risk and safety analysis of nuclear systems
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Lee, John C; McCormick, Norman J
2011-01-01
.... The first half of the book covers the principles of risk analysis, the techniques used to develop and update a reliability data base, the reliability of multi-component systems, Markov methods used...
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Approach for seismic risk analysis for CANDU plants in Korea
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lee, B-S; Kim, T; Kang, S-K [Korea Power Engineering Co., Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Hong, S-Y; Roh, S-R [Korea Electric Power Corp., Taejon (Korea, Republic of). Research Centre
1996-12-31
A seismic risk analysis for CANDU type plants has never been performed. The study presented here suggested that the approach generally applied to LWR type plants could lead to unacceptable result, if directly applied to CANDU plants. This paper presents a modified approach for the seismic risk analysis of CANDU plants. (author). 5 refs., 2 tabs., 2 figs.
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LANDSAFE: LANDING SITE RISK ANALYSIS SOFTWARE FRAMEWORK
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
R. Schmidt
2012-08-01
Full Text Available The European Space Agency (ESA is planning a Lunar Lander mission in the 2018 timeframe that will demonstrate precise soft landing at the polar regions of the Moon. To ensure a safe and successful landing a careful risk analysis has to be carried out. This is comprised of identifying favorable target areas and evaluating the surface conditions in these areas. Features like craters, boulders, steep slopes, rough surfaces and shadow areas have to be identified in order to assess the risk associated to a landing site in terms of a successful touchdown and subsequent surface operation of the lander. In addition, global illumination conditions at the landing site have to be simulated and analyzed. The Landing Site Risk Analysis software framework (LandSAfe is a system for the analysis, selection and certification of safe landing sites on the lunar surface. LandSAfe generates several data products including high resolution digital terrain models (DTMs, hazard maps, illumination maps, temperature maps and surface reflectance maps which assist the user in evaluating potential landing site candidates. This paper presents the LandSAfe system and describes the methods and products of the different modules. For one candidate landing site on the rim of Shackleton crater at the south pole of the Moon a high resolution DTM is showcased.
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Risk analysis of analytical validations by probabilistic modification of FMEA
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Barends, D.M.; Oldenhof, M.T.; Vredenbregt, M.J.
2012-01-01
Risk analysis is a valuable addition to validation of an analytical chemistry process, enabling not only detecting technical risks, but also risks related to human failures. Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) can be applied, using a categorical risk scoring of the occurrence, detection...... and severity of failure modes, and calculating the Risk Priority Number (RPN) to select failure modes for correction. We propose a probabilistic modification of FMEA, replacing the categorical scoring of occurrence and detection by their estimated relative frequency and maintaining the categorical scoring...... of severity. In an example, the results of traditional FMEA of a Near Infrared (NIR) analytical procedure used for the screening of suspected counterfeited tablets are re-interpretated by this probabilistic modification of FMEA. Using this probabilistic modification of FMEA, the frequency of occurrence...
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A Benefit-Risk Analysis Approach to Capture Regulatory Decision-Making: Multiple Myeloma.
Raju, G K; Gurumurthi, Karthik; Domike, Reuben; Kazandjian, Dickran; Landgren, Ola; Blumenthal, Gideon M; Farrell, Ann; Pazdur, Richard; Woodcock, Janet
2018-01-01
Drug regulators around the world make decisions about drug approvability based on qualitative benefit-risk analysis. In this work, a quantitative benefit-risk analysis approach captures regulatory decision-making about new drugs to treat multiple myeloma (MM). MM assessments have been based on endpoints such as time to progression (TTP), progression-free survival (PFS), and objective response rate (ORR) which are different than benefit-risk analysis based on overall survival (OS). Twenty-three FDA decisions on MM drugs submitted to FDA between 2003 and 2016 were identified and analyzed. The benefits and risks were quantified relative to comparators (typically the control arm of the clinical trial) to estimate whether the median benefit-risk was positive or negative. A sensitivity analysis was demonstrated using ixazomib to explore the magnitude of uncertainty. FDA approval decision outcomes were consistent and logical using this benefit-risk framework. © 2017 American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.
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Hierarchic Analysis Method to Evaluate Rock Burst Risk
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ming Ji
2015-01-01
Full Text Available In order to reasonably evaluate the risk of rock bursts in mines, the factors impacting rock bursts and the existing grading criterion on the risk of rock bursts were studied. By building a model of hierarchic analysis method, the natural factors, technology factors, and management factors that influence rock bursts were analyzed and researched, which determined the degree of each factor’s influence (i.e., weight and comprehensive index. Then the grade of rock burst risk was assessed. The results showed that the assessment level generated by the model accurately reflected the actual risk degree of rock bursts in mines. The model improved the maneuverability and practicability of existing evaluation criteria and also enhanced the accuracy and science of rock burst risk assessment.
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Analysis of labour risks in the Spanish industrial aerospace sector
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
JUAN LAGUARDIA
Full Text Available ABSTRACT Labour risk prevention is an activity integrated within Safety and Hygiene at Work in Spain. In 2003, the Electronic Declaration for Accidents at Work, Delt@ (DELTA was introduced. The industrial aerospace sector is subject to various risks. Our objective is to analyse the Spanish Industrial Aerospace Sector (SIAS using the ACSOM methodology to assess its labour risks and to prioritise preventive actions. The SIAS and the Services Subsector (SS were created and the relevant accident rate data were obtained. The ACSOM method was applied through double contrast (deviation and translocation of the SIAS or SS risk polygon with the considered pattern, accidents from all sectors (ACSOM G or the SIAS. A list of risks was obtained, ordered by action phases. In the SIAS vs. ACSOM G analysis, radiation risks were the worst, followed by overstrains. Accidents caused by living beings were also significant in the SS vs. SIAE, which will be able to be used to improve Risk Prevention. Radiation is the most significant risk in the SIAS and the SS. Preventive actions will be primary and secondary. ACSOM has shown itself to be a valid tool for the analysis of labour risks.
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Analysis of labour risks in the Spanish industrial aerospace sector.
Laguardia, Juan; Rubio, Emilio; Garcia, Ana; Garcia-Foncillas, Rafael
2016-01-01
Labour risk prevention is an activity integrated within Safety and Hygiene at Work in Spain. In 2003, the Electronic Declaration for Accidents at Work, Delt@ (DELTA) was introduced. The industrial aerospace sector is subject to various risks. Our objective is to analyse the Spanish Industrial Aerospace Sector (SIAS) using the ACSOM methodology to assess its labour risks and to prioritise preventive actions. The SIAS and the Services Subsector (SS) were created and the relevant accident rate data were obtained. The ACSOM method was applied through double contrast (deviation and translocation) of the SIAS or SS risk polygon with the considered pattern, accidents from all sectors (ACSOM G) or the SIAS. A list of risks was obtained, ordered by action phases. In the SIAS vs. ACSOM G analysis, radiation risks were the worst, followed by overstrains. Accidents caused by living beings were also significant in the SS vs. SIAE, which will be able to be used to improve Risk Prevention. Radiation is the most significant risk in the SIAS and the SS. Preventive actions will be primary and secondary. ACSOM has shown itself to be a valid tool for the analysis of labour risks.
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National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Williams, Ray; Ambrose, Kate; Bentrem, Laura
2004-01-01
...), which is envisioned to be a comprehensive reference tool for risk identification and analysis (RI AND A) techniques. Program Managers (PMs) responsible for developing or acquiring software-intensive systems typically identify risks in different ways...
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Is adaptation or transformation needed? Active nanomaterials and risk analysis
Kuzma, Jennifer; Roberts, John Patrick
2016-07-01
Nanotechnology has been a key area of funding and policy for the United States and globally for the past two decades. Since nanotechnology research and development became a focus and nanoproducts began to permeate the market, scholars and scientists have been concerned about how to assess the risks that they may pose to human health and the environment. The newest generation of nanomaterials includes biomolecules that can respond to and influence their environments, and there is a need to explore whether and how existing risk-analysis frameworks are challenged by such novelty. To fill this niche, we used a modified approach of upstream oversight assessment (UOA), a subset of anticipatory governance. We first selected case studies of "active nanomaterials," that are early in research and development and designed for use in multiple sectors, and then considered them under several, key risk-analysis frameworks. We found two ways in which the cases challenge the frameworks. The first category relates to how to assess risk under a narrow framing of the term (direct health and environmental harm), and the second involves the definition of what constitutes a "risk" worthy of assessment and consideration in decision making. In light of these challenges, we propose some changes for risk analysis in the face of active nanostructures in order to improve risk governance.
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SU-F-T-243: Major Risks in Radiotherapy. A Review Based On Risk Analysis Literature
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
López-Tarjuelo, J; Guasp-Tortajada, M; Iglesias-Montenegro, N; Monasor-Denia, P [Servicio de Radiofísica y Protección Radiológica, Consorcio Hospitalario Provincial de Castellón, Castellón de la Plana, España/Spain (Spain); Bouché-Babiloni, A; Morillo-Macías, V; Ferrer-Albiach, C [Servicio de Oncología Radioterápica, Consorcio Hospitalario Provincial de Castellón, Castellón de la Plana, España/Spain (Spain)
2016-06-15
Purpose: We present a literature review of risk analyses in radiotherapy to highlight the most reported risks and facilitate the spread of this valuable information so that professionals can be aware of these major threats before performing their own studies. Methods: We considered studies with at least an estimation of the probability of occurrence of an adverse event (O) and its associated severity (S). They cover external beam radiotherapy, brachytherapy, intraoperative radiotherapy, and stereotactic techniques. We selected only the works containing a detailed ranked series of elements or failure modes and focused on the first fully reported quartile as much. Afterward, we sorted the risk elements according to a regular radiotherapy procedure so that the resulting groups were cited in several works and be ranked in this way. Results: 29 references published between 2007 and February 2016 were studied. Publication trend has been generally rising. The most employed analysis has been the Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA). Among references, we selected 20 works listing 258 ranked risk elements. They were sorted into 31 groups appearing at least in two different works. 11 groups appeared in at least 5 references and 5 groups did it in 7 or more papers. These last sets of risks where choosing another set of images or plan for planning or treating, errors related with contours, errors in patient positioning for treatment, human mistakes when programming treatments, and planning errors. Conclusion: There is a sufficient amount and variety of references for identifying which failure modes or elements should be addressed in a radiotherapy department before attempting a specific analysis. FMEA prevailed, but other studies such as “risk matrix” or “occurrence × severity” analyses can also lead professionals’ efforts. Risk associated with human actions ranks very high; therefore, they should be automated or at least peer-reviewed.
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SU-F-T-243: Major Risks in Radiotherapy. A Review Based On Risk Analysis Literature
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
López-Tarjuelo, J; Guasp-Tortajada, M; Iglesias-Montenegro, N; Monasor-Denia, P; Bouché-Babiloni, A; Morillo-Macías, V; Ferrer-Albiach, C
2016-01-01
Purpose: We present a literature review of risk analyses in radiotherapy to highlight the most reported risks and facilitate the spread of this valuable information so that professionals can be aware of these major threats before performing their own studies. Methods: We considered studies with at least an estimation of the probability of occurrence of an adverse event (O) and its associated severity (S). They cover external beam radiotherapy, brachytherapy, intraoperative radiotherapy, and stereotactic techniques. We selected only the works containing a detailed ranked series of elements or failure modes and focused on the first fully reported quartile as much. Afterward, we sorted the risk elements according to a regular radiotherapy procedure so that the resulting groups were cited in several works and be ranked in this way. Results: 29 references published between 2007 and February 2016 were studied. Publication trend has been generally rising. The most employed analysis has been the Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA). Among references, we selected 20 works listing 258 ranked risk elements. They were sorted into 31 groups appearing at least in two different works. 11 groups appeared in at least 5 references and 5 groups did it in 7 or more papers. These last sets of risks where choosing another set of images or plan for planning or treating, errors related with contours, errors in patient positioning for treatment, human mistakes when programming treatments, and planning errors. Conclusion: There is a sufficient amount and variety of references for identifying which failure modes or elements should be addressed in a radiotherapy department before attempting a specific analysis. FMEA prevailed, but other studies such as “risk matrix” or “occurrence × severity” analyses can also lead professionals’ efforts. Risk associated with human actions ranks very high; therefore, they should be automated or at least peer-reviewed.
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Implications of the Baltimore Rail Tunnel Fire for Full-Scale Testing of Shipping Casks
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Halstead, R. J.; Dilger, F.
2003-01-01
The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) does not currently require full-scale physical testing of shipping casks as part of its certification process. Stakeholders have long urged NRC to require full-scale testing as part of certification. NRC is currently preparing a full-scale casktesting proposal as part of the Package Performance Study (PPS) that grew out of the NRC reexamination of the Modal Study. The State of Nevada and Clark County remain committed to the position that demonstration testing would not be an acceptable substitute for a combination of full-scale testing, scale-model tests, and computer simulation of each new cask design prior to certification. Based on previous analyses of cask testing issues, and on preliminary findings regarding the July 2001 Baltimore rail tunnel fire, the authors recommend that NRC prioritize extra-regulatory thermal testing of a large rail cask and the GA-4 truck cask under the PPS. The specific fire conditions and other aspects of the full-scale extra-regulatory tests recommended for the PPS are yet to be determined. NRC, in consultation with stakeholders, must consider past real-world accidents and computer simulations to establish temperature failure thresholds for cask containment and fuel cladding. The cost of extra-regulatory thermal testing is yet to be determined. The minimum cost for regulatory thermal testing of a legal-weight truck cask would likely be $3.3-3.8 million
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Zero risk fuel fabrication: a systems analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
1979-01-01
Zero risk is a concept used to ensure that system requirements are developed through a systems approach such that the choice(s) among alternatives represents the balanced viewpoints of performance, achievability and risk. Requirements to ensure characteristics such as stringent accountability, low personnel exposure and etc. are needed to guide the development of component and subsystems for future LMFBR fuel supply systems. To establish a consistent and objective set of requirements, RF and M-TMC has initiated a systems requirements analysis activity. This activity pivots on judgement and experience provided by a Task Force representing industrial companies engaged in fuel fabrication in licensed facilities. The Task Force members are listed in Appendix A. Input developed by this group is presented as a starting point for the systems requirements analysis
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NASA's Agency-Wide Strategy for Environmental Regulatory Risk Analysis and Communication
Scroggins, Sharon; Duda, Kristen
2008-01-01
This viewgraph presentation gives an overview of NASA's risk analysis communication programs associated with changing environmental policies. The topics include: 1) NASA Program Transition; 2) Principal Center for Regulatory Risk Analysis and Communication (RRAC PC); and 3) Regulatory Tracking and Communication Process.
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Dynamic Positioning System (DPS) Risk Analysis Using Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA)
Thigpen, Eric B.; Boyer, Roger L.; Stewart, Michael A.; Fougere, Pete
2017-01-01
The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Safety & Mission Assurance (S&MA) directorate at the Johnson Space Center (JSC) has applied its knowledge and experience with Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to projects in industries ranging from spacecraft to nuclear power plants. PRA is a comprehensive and structured process for analyzing risk in complex engineered systems and/or processes. The PRA process enables the user to identify potential risk contributors such as, hardware and software failure, human error, and external events. Recent developments in the oil and gas industry have presented opportunities for NASA to lend their PRA expertise to both ongoing and developmental projects within the industry. This paper provides an overview of the PRA process and demonstrates how this process was applied in estimating the probability that a Mobile Offshore Drilling Unit (MODU) operating in the Gulf of Mexico and equipped with a generically configured Dynamic Positioning System (DPS) loses location and needs to initiate an emergency disconnect. The PRA described in this paper is intended to be generic such that the vessel meets the general requirements of an International Maritime Organization (IMO) Maritime Safety Committee (MSC)/Circ. 645 Class 3 dynamically positioned vessel. The results of this analysis are not intended to be applied to any specific drilling vessel, although provisions were made to allow the analysis to be configured to a specific vessel if required.
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Work program analysis - defining the capability/risk plan
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hrinivich, W.A.
2004-01-01
Bruce Power has developed and implemented an analysis methodology (Work Program Analysis) to assess and address corporate business risk associated with work group capability. Work Program Analysis is proving to be an excellent tool for identifying and supporting key business decisions facing the line and senior management at Bruce Power. The following describes the methodology, its application and the results achieved. (author)
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Challenges in the vulnerability and risk analysis of critical infrastructures
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zio, Enrico
2016-01-01
The objective of this paper is to provide a systematic view on the problem of vulnerability and risk analysis of critical infrastructures. Reflections are made on the inherent complexities of these systems, related challenges are identified and possible ways forward for their analysis and management are indicated. Specifically: the framework of vulnerability and risk analysis is examined in relation to its application for the protection and resilience of critical infrastructures; it is argued that the complexity of these systems is a challenging characteristic, which calls for the integration of different modeling perspectives and new approaches of analysis; examples of are given in relation to the Internet and, particularly, the electric power grid, as representative of critical infrastructures and the associated complexity; the integration of different types of analyses and methods of system modeling is put forward for capturing the inherent structural and dynamic complexities of critical infrastructures and eventually evaluating their vulnerability and risk characteristics, so that decisions on protections and resilience actions can be taken with the required confidence. - Highlights: • The problem of the protection and resilience of CIs is the focus of the work. • The vulnerability and risk analysis framework for this is critically examined. • The complexity of CIs is presented as a challenge for system modeling and analysis. • The integration of different modeling perspectives of analysis is put forward as a solution. • The extension of the analysis framework to new methods for dealing with surprises and black swans is advocated.
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Analysis of coastal protection under rising flood risk
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Megan J. Lickley
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Infrastructure located along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts is exposed to rising risk of flooding from sea level rise, increasing storm surge, and subsidence. In these circumstances coastal management commonly based on 100-year flood maps assuming current climatology is no longer adequate. A dynamic programming cost–benefit analysis is applied to the adaptation decision, illustrated by application to an energy facility in Galveston Bay. Projections of several global climate models provide inputs to estimates of the change in hurricane and storm surge activity as well as the increase in sea level. The projected rise in physical flood risk is combined with estimates of flood damage and protection costs in an analysis of the multi-period nature of adaptation choice. The result is a planning method, using dynamic programming, which is appropriate for investment and abandonment decisions under rising coastal risk.
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Vedovato, Gabriela M; Surkan, Pamela J; Jones-Smith, Jessica; Steeves, Elizabeth Anderson; Han, Eunkyung; Trude, Angela Cb; Kharmats, Anna Y; Gittelsohn, Joel
2016-06-01
To examine associations between food insecurity, excess body weight, psychosocial factors and food behaviours among low-income African-American families. Cross-sectional survey of participants in the baseline evaluation of the B'More Healthy Communities for Kids (BHCK) obesity prevention trial. We collected data on socio-economic factors, food source destinations, acquiring food, preparation methods, psychosocial factors, beliefs and attitudes, participation in food assistance programmes, anthropometry and food security. We used principal component analysis to identify patterns of food source destinations and logistic regression to examine associations. Fourteen low-income, predominantly African-American neighbourhoods in Baltimore City, MD, USA. Two hundred and ninety-eight adult caregiver-child (10-14 years old) dyads. Of households, 41·6 % had some level of food insecurity and 12·4 % experienced some level of hunger. Food-insecure participants with hunger were significantly more likely to be unemployed and to have lower incomes. We found high rates of excess body weight (overweight and obesity) among adults and children (82·8 % and 37·9 % among food insecure without hunger, 89·2 % and 45·9 % among food insecure with hunger, respectively), although there were no significant differences by food security status. Food source usage patterns, food acquisition, preparation, knowledge, self-efficacy and intentions did not differ by food security. Food security was associated with perceptions that healthy foods are affordable and convenient. Greater caregiver body satisfaction was associated with food insecurity and excess body weight. In this setting, obesity and food insecurity are major problems. For many food-insecure families, perceptions of healthy foods may serve as additional barriers to their purchase and consumption.
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Risk analysis; Analisis de riesgos
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Baron, J H; Nunez McLeod, J; Rivera, S S [Universidad Nacional de Cuyo, Mendoza (Argentina). Instituto de Capacitacion Especial y Desarrollo de Ingenieria Asistida por Computadora (CEDIAC)
1997-07-01
This book contains a selection of research works performed in the CEDIAC Institute (Cuyo National University) in the area of Risk Analysis, with specific orientations to the subjects of uncertainty and sensitivity studies, software reliability, severe accident modeling, etc. This volume presents important material for all those researches who want to have an insight in the risk analysis field, as a tool to solution several problems frequently found in the engineering and applied sciences field, as well as for the academic teachers who want to keep up to date, including the new developments and improvements continuously arising in this field. [Spanish] Este libro contiene una seleccion de trabajos de investigacion realizados dentro del Instituto de Capacitacion Especial y Desarrollo de la Ingenieria Asistida por Computadora en el area del analisis de riesgos, con una orientacion hacia el estudio de incertidumbres y sensibilidad, confiabilidad de software, modelacion de accidentes severos, etc. Este volumen recoge un material de indudable importancia e interes para todos aquellos investigadores y profesionales que desean incursionar en este campo del analisis de riesgos como herramienta para la solucion de problemas frecuentemente encontrados en la ingenieria y las ciencias aplicadas, asi como para los academicos que desean mantenerse al dia, conociendo los nuevos desarrollos y tecnicas que constantemente aparecen en su area.
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LANDSAFE: LANDING SITE RISK ANALYSIS SOFTWARE FRAMEWORK
Schmidt, Ralph; Bostelmann, Jonas; Cornet, Yves; Heipke, Christian; Philippe, Christian; Poncelet, Nadia; de Rosa, Diego; Vandeloise, Yannick
2012-01-01
The European Space Agency (ESA) is planning a Lunar Lander mission in the 2018 timeframe that will demonstrate precise soft landing at the polar regions of the Moon. To ensure a safe and successful landing a careful risk analysis has to be carried out. This is comprised of identifying favorable target areas and evaluating the surface conditions in these areas. Features like craters, boulders, steep slopes, rough surfaces and shadow areas have to be identified in order to assess the risk assoc...
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Risk analysis by FMEA as an element of analytical validation.
van Leeuwen, J F; Nauta, M J; de Kaste, D; Odekerken-Rombouts, Y M C F; Oldenhof, M T; Vredenbregt, M J; Barends, D M
2009-12-05
We subjected a Near-Infrared (NIR) analytical procedure used for screening drugs on authenticity to a Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA), including technical risks as well as risks related to human failure. An FMEA team broke down the NIR analytical method into process steps and identified possible failure modes for each step. Each failure mode was ranked on estimated frequency of occurrence (O), probability that the failure would remain undetected later in the process (D) and severity (S), each on a scale of 1-10. Human errors turned out to be the most common cause of failure modes. Failure risks were calculated by Risk Priority Numbers (RPNs)=O x D x S. Failure modes with the highest RPN scores were subjected to corrective actions and the FMEA was repeated, showing reductions in RPN scores and resulting in improvement indices up to 5.0. We recommend risk analysis as an addition to the usual analytical validation, as the FMEA enabled us to detect previously unidentified risks.
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A new tool for risk analysis and assessment in petrochemical plants
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
El-Arkam Mechhoud
2016-09-01
Full Text Available The aim of our work was the implementation of a new automated tool dedicated to risk analysis and assessment in petrochemical plants, based on a combination of two analysis methods: HAZOP (HAZard and OPerability and FMEA (Failure Mode and Effect Analysis. Assessment of accident scenarios is also considered. The principal advantage of the two analysis methods is to speed-up hazard identification and risk assessment and forecast the nature and impact of such accidents. Plant parameters are analyzed under a graphical interface to facilitate the exploitation of our developed approach. This automated analysis brings out the different deviations of the operating parameters of any system in the plant. Possible causes of these deviations, their consequences and preventive actions are identified. The result is risk minimization and dependability enhancement of the considered system.
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Management of Microbiologically Influenced Corrosion in Risk-Based Inspection Analysis
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Skovhus, Torben Lund; Andersen, Erlend S.; Hillier, Elisabeth
2018-01-01
Operating offshore oil and gas production facilities is often associated with high risk. To manage the risk, operators commonly use aids to support decision making in the establishment of a maintenance and inspection strategy. Risk-based inspection (RBI) analysis is widely used in the offshore...... industry as a means to justify the inspection strategy adopted. The RBI analysis is a decision-making technique that enables asset managers to identify the risk related to failure of their most critical systems and components, with an effect on safety, environmental, and business-related issues. Risk...... influenced corrosion (MIC) is a degradation mechanism that has received increased attention from corrosion engineers and asset operators in the past decades. In this paper, the most recent models that have been developed to assess the impact of MIC on asset integrity will be presented and discussed. From...
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Cochran, Gerald; Field, Craig; Caetano, Raul
2015-07-01
Risk-level drinking, drinking and driving, and alcohol-related violence are risk factors that result in injuries. The current study sought to identify which subgroups of patients experience the most behavioral change following a brief intervention. A secondary analysis of data from a brief alcohol intervention study was conducted. The sample (N = 664) includes at-risk drinkers who experienced an injury and were admitted for care to a Level 1 trauma center. Injury-related items from the Short Inventory of Problems+6 were used to perform a latent transition analysis to describe class transitions participants experienced following discharge. Four classes emerged for the year before and after the current injury. Most individuals transitioned from higher-risk classes into those with lower risk. Some participants maintained risky profiles, and others increased risks and consequences. Drinking and driving remained a persistent problem among the study participants. Although a large portion of intervention recipients improved risks and consequences of alcohol use following discharge, more intensive intervention services may be needed for a subset of patients who showed little or no improvement.
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Critical asset and portfolio risk analysis: an all-hazards framework.
Ayyub, Bilal M; McGill, William L; Kaminskiy, Mark
2007-08-01
This article develops a quantitative all-hazards framework for critical asset and portfolio risk analysis (CAPRA) that considers both natural and human-caused hazards. Following a discussion on the nature of security threats, the need for actionable risk assessments, and the distinction between asset and portfolio-level analysis, a general formula for all-hazards risk analysis is obtained that resembles the traditional model based on the notional product of consequence, vulnerability, and threat, though with clear meanings assigned to each parameter. Furthermore, a simple portfolio consequence model is presented that yields first-order estimates of interdependency effects following a successful attack on an asset. Moreover, depending on the needs of the decisions being made and available analytical resources, values for the parameters in this model can be obtained at a high level or through detailed systems analysis. Several illustrative examples of the CAPRA methodology are provided.
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The role of uncertainty analysis in dose reconstruction and risk assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hoffman, F.O.; Simon, S.L.; Thiessen. K.M.
1996-01-01
Dose reconstruction and risk assessment rely heavily on the use of mathematical models to extrapolate information beyond the realm of direct observation. Because models are merely approximations of real systems, their predictions are inherently uncertain. As a result, full disclosure of uncertainty in dose and risk estimates is essential to achieve scientific credibility and to build public trust. The need for formal analysis of uncertainty in model predictions was presented during the nineteenth annual meeting of the NCRP. At that time, quantitative uncertainty analysis was considered a relatively new and difficult subject practiced by only a few investigators. Today, uncertainty analysis has become synonymous with the assessment process itself. When an uncertainty analysis is used iteratively within the assessment process, it can guide experimental research to refine dose and risk estimates, deferring potentially high cost or high consequence decisions until uncertainty is either acceptable or irreducible. Uncertainty analysis is now mandated for all ongoing dose reconstruction projects within the United States, a fact that distinguishes dose reconstruction from other types of exposure and risk assessments. 64 refs., 6 figs., 1 tab
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Risk analysis of underground infrastructures in urban areas
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cagno, Enrico; De Ambroggi, Massimiliano; Grande, Ottavio; Trucco, Paolo
2011-01-01
The paper presents an integrated approach for vulnerability and resilience analysis for underground infrastructures, i.e. a societal risk analysis of the failures of underground services for an urban area. The approach is based on the detailed study of (1) domino-effects for the components of a single infrastructure and for a given set of infrastructures interoperated and/or belonging to the same area; (2) risk and vulnerability analysis of a given area; (3) identification of a set of intervention guidelines, in order to improve the overall system resilience. The use of an integrated (interoperability and area) approach, breaking down the analysis area extent into sub-areas and assessing the dependencies among sub-areas both in terms of interoperability and damage propagation of critical infrastructures, demonstrates a useful advantage in terms of resilience analysis, more consistent with the 'zoned' nature of failures of the underground infrastructures. An applied case, describing the interoperability and damage propagation analysis with the evaluation of time-dependency for the infrastructures and targets and of different kinds of interventions of the underground infrastructures of a town, is presented for this purpose.
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Renn, O
1981-01-01
Volume 2 presents a comparative investigation of risk perception and acceptance. It contains the evaluations of the two experiments in social psychology and the analysis of two intensive inquiries concerning risk perception with a view to 12 different risk sources. The data of the two inquiries were acquired from a total of 200 interview partners in two cities in North-Rhine Westphalia.
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A Thermorisk framework for the analysis of energy systems by combining risk and exergy analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cassetti, G.; Colombo, E.; Zio, E.
2016-01-01
Highlights: • An exergy based analysis for improving efficiency and safety of energy systems is presented. • The relation between thermodynamic parameters and the safety characteristics is identified. • Possible modifications in the process are indicated to improve the safety of the system. - Abstract: The impact of energy production, transformation and use on the environmental resources encourage to understand the mechanisms of resource degradation and to develop proper analyses to reduce the impact of the energy systems on the environment. At the technical level, most attempts for reducing the environmental impact of energy systems focus on the improvement of process efficiency. One way toward an integrated approach is that of adopting exergy analysis for assessing efficiency and test improving design and operation solutions. The paper presents an exergy based analysis for improving efficiency and safety of energy systems, named Thermorisk analysis. The purpose of the Thermorisk analysis is to supply information to control, and eventually reduce, the risk of the systems (i.e. risk of accidents) by acting on the thermodynamic parameters and safety characteristics in the same frame. The proper combination of exergy and risk analysis allows monitoring the effects of efficiency improvement on the safety of the systems analyzed. A case study is presented, showing the potential of the analysis to identify the relation between the exergy efficiency and the risk of the system analyzed, and the contribution of inefficiencies on the safety of the process. Possible modifications in the process are indicated to improve the safety of the system.
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Debris Flow Risk Management Framework and Risk Analysis in Taiwan, A Preliminary Study
Tsao, Ting-Chi; Hsu, Wen-Ko; Chiou, Lin-Bin; Cheng, Chin-Tung; Lo, Wen-Chun; Chen, Chen-Yu; Lai, Cheng-Nong; Ju, Jiun-Ping
2010-05-01
Taiwan is located on a seismically active mountain belt between the Philippine Sea plate and Eurasian plate. After 1999's Chi-Chi earthquake (Mw=7.6), landslide and debris flow occurred frequently. In Aug. 2009, Typhoon Morakot struck Taiwan and numerous landslides and debris flow events, some with tremendous fatalities, were observed. With limited resources, authorities should establish a disaster management system to cope with slope disaster risks more effectively. Since 2006, Taiwan's authority in charge of debris flow management, the Soil and Water Conservation Bureau (SWCB), completed the basic investigation and data collection of 1,503 potential debris flow creeks around Taiwan. During 2008 and 2009, a debris flow quantitative risk analysis (QRA) framework, based on landslide risk management framework of Australia, was proposed and conducted on 106 creeks of the 30 villages with debris flow hazard history. Information and value of several types of elements at risk (bridge, road, building and crop) were gathered and integrated into a GIS layer, with the vulnerability model of each elements at risk applied. Through studying the historical hazard events of the 30 villages, numerical simulations of debris flow hazards with different magnitudes (5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 years return period) were conducted, the economic losses and fatalities of each scenario were calculated for each creek. When taking annual exceeding probability into account, the annual total risk of each creek was calculated, and the results displayed on a debris flow risk map. The number of fatalities and frequency were calculated, and the F-N curves of 106 creeks were provided. For F-N curves, the individual risk to life per year of 1.0E-04 and slope of 1, which matched with international standards, were considered to be an acceptable risk. Applying the results of the 106 creeks onto the F-N curve, they were divided into 3 categories: Unacceptable, ALARP (As Low As Reasonable Practicable) and
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HVAC fault tree analysis for WIPP integrated risk assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kirby, P.; Iacovino, J.
1990-01-01
In order to evaluate the public health risk from operation of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) due to potential radioactive releases, a probabilistic risk assessment of waste handling operations was conducted. One major aspect of this risk assessment involved fault tree analysis of the plant heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, which comprise the final barrier between waste handling operations and the environment. 1 refs., 1 tab
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Nuclear risk analysis of the Ulysses mission
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bartram, B.W.; Vaughan, F.R.; Englehart, D.R.W.
1991-01-01
The use of a radioisotope thermoelectric generator fueled with plutonium-238 dioxide on the Space Shuttle-launched Ulysses mission implies some level of risk due to potential accidents. This paper describes the method used to quantify risks in the Ulysses mission Final Safety Analysis Report prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy. The starting point for the analysis described herein is following input of source term probability distributions from the General Electric Company. A Monte Carlo technique is used to develop probability distributions of radiological consequences for a range of accident scenarios thoughout the mission. Factors affecting radiological consequences are identified, the probability distribution of the effect of each factor determined, and the functional relationship among all the factors established. The probability distributions of all the factor effects are then combined using a Monte Carlo technique. The results of the analysis are presented in terms of complementary cumulative distribution functions (CCDF) by mission sub-phase, phase, and the overall mission. The CCDFs show the total probability that consequences (calculated health effects) would be equal to or greater than a given value
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A Graphical Adversarial Risk Analysis Model for Oil and Gas Drilling Cybersecurity
Vieira, Aitor Couce; Houmb, Siv Hilde; Insua, David Rios
2014-01-01
Oil and gas drilling is based, increasingly, on operational technology, whose cybersecurity is complicated by several challenges. We propose a graphical model for cybersecurity risk assessment based on Adversarial Risk Analysis to face those challenges. We also provide an example of the model in the context of an offshore drilling rig. The proposed model provides a more formal and comprehensive analysis of risks, still using the standard business language based on decisions, risks, and value.
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Terminological Ontologies for Risk and Vulnerability Analysis
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Madsen, Bodil Nistrup; Erdman Thomsen, Hanne
2014-01-01
Risk and vulnerability analyses are an important preliminary stage in civil contingency planning. The Danish Emergency Management Agency has developed a generic model and a set of tools that may be used in the preparedness planning, i.e. for identifying and describing society’s critical functions......, for formulating threat scenarios and for assessing consequences. Terminological ontologies, which are systems of domain specific concepts comprising concept relations and characteristics, are useful, both when describing the central concepts of risk and vulnerability analysis (meta concepts), and for further...
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Tutorial: Parallel Computing of Simulation Models for Risk Analysis.
Reilly, Allison C; Staid, Andrea; Gao, Michael; Guikema, Seth D
2016-10-01
Simulation models are widely used in risk analysis to study the effects of uncertainties on outcomes of interest in complex problems. Often, these models are computationally complex and time consuming to run. This latter point may be at odds with time-sensitive evaluations or may limit the number of parameters that are considered. In this article, we give an introductory tutorial focused on parallelizing simulation code to better leverage modern computing hardware, enabling risk analysts to better utilize simulation-based methods for quantifying uncertainty in practice. This article is aimed primarily at risk analysts who use simulation methods but do not yet utilize parallelization to decrease the computational burden of these models. The discussion is focused on conceptual aspects of embarrassingly parallel computer code and software considerations. Two complementary examples are shown using the languages MATLAB and R. A brief discussion of hardware considerations is located in the Appendix. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.
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AGROFOREST SYSTEM INVESTMENT ANALYSIS UNDER RISK
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Luiz Moreira Coelho Junior
2008-12-01
Full Text Available Agroforestry System is the ecological and economical interaction of the use of the land, with the combination ofagriculture, livestock and forest production, in temporary sequence and in a simultaneous way. The studies of investments in projectsassume the existence of risks and uncertainties. An alternative to reduce the risk in the forest investment is the association with theagricultural. This work analyzed the situations of risk of a system agroflorestal. Monte Carlo s method comes from the theory ofsimulations and stands out as a powerful and useful tool to provide a distribution of probabilities for the analysis of decision. A totalof 10,000 interactions of the Net Present Value (VPL, of Internal Rate of Return (TIR and of the Equivalent Periodic Benefit (BPEwere made in order to establish the probability distribution. The results presented 78.65% of chance of VPL being US$ 1,410.00;77.56% of chance of TIR being 36.36%, and; 75.39% of chance of BPE being US$ 309.70; the agroforestry system presented lowinvestment risk; and the livestock is the main product of the agrossilvopastoril system, followed by charcoal.
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Sherman, Susan G; Footer, Katherine; Illangasekare, Samantha; Clark, Erin; Pearson, Erin; Decker, Michele R
2015-01-01
Worldwide, female sex workers (FSWs) have high rates of HIV. Many factors that escalate their risk lay outside of their control, primarily in the environments in which they practice sex. An understudied yet powerful risk environment is that of police. We qualitatively explored sex workers' interactions with police in their personal and professional lives. Thirty-five FSWs were purposively sampled in Baltimore, MD, in 2012. Women discussed experiences of police verbal harassment, sexual exploitation, extortion, and a lack of police responsiveness to 911 calls in emergencies, largely partner violence. Women's mistrust of police was often developed at an early age and further reinforced by interactions in their personal and professional lives. The study underscores the need for targeting police in reducing sex workers' HIV and other risks. The case for police's role in generating risk is evident, which could be addressed through structural interventions targeting both police practices and policies.
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Kaplan-Meier Survival Analysis Overestimates the Risk of Revision Arthroplasty: A Meta-analysis.
Lacny, Sarah; Wilson, Todd; Clement, Fiona; Roberts, Derek J; Faris, Peter D; Ghali, William A; Marshall, Deborah A
2015-11-01
Although Kaplan-Meier survival analysis is commonly used to estimate the cumulative incidence of revision after joint arthroplasty, it theoretically overestimates the risk of revision in the presence of competing risks (such as death). Because the magnitude of overestimation is not well documented, the potential associated impact on clinical and policy decision-making remains unknown. We performed a meta-analysis to answer the following questions: (1) To what extent does the Kaplan-Meier method overestimate the cumulative incidence of revision after joint replacement compared with alternative competing-risks methods? (2) Is the extent of overestimation influenced by followup time or rate of competing risks? We searched Ovid MEDLINE, EMBASE, BIOSIS Previews, and Web of Science (1946, 1980, 1980, and 1899, respectively, to October 26, 2013) and included article bibliographies for studies comparing estimated cumulative incidence of revision after hip or knee arthroplasty obtained using both Kaplan-Meier and competing-risks methods. We excluded conference abstracts, unpublished studies, or studies using simulated data sets. Two reviewers independently extracted data and evaluated the quality of reporting of the included studies. Among 1160 abstracts identified, six studies were included in our meta-analysis. The principal reason for the steep attrition (1160 to six) was that the initial search was for studies in any clinical area that compared the cumulative incidence estimated using the Kaplan-Meier versus competing-risks methods for any event (not just the cumulative incidence of hip or knee revision); we did this to minimize the likelihood of missing any relevant studies. We calculated risk ratios (RRs) comparing the cumulative incidence estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method with the competing-risks method for each study and used DerSimonian and Laird random effects models to pool these RRs. Heterogeneity was explored using stratified meta-analyses and
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Giovanni Russo
2012-12-01
Full Text Available Rural areas are often interested by pollution phenomena generated by agricultural activities with a high use of pesticides and/or by anthropic activities, such as industrial plants or illegal waste disposal sites, which may cause even long-range contamination. The risk for human health from the pollutants present in the environment can be quantitatively evaluated by the environmental health risk analysis set out in the Italian Legislative Decree no. 152/2006 (Italian Regulation, 2006. This analysis is the best technical-normative tool to estimate the health risks linked to the pollutants present in the environment but it does not consider the specificity of agricultural soils or the contamination of agricultural products. This study aims to provide this missing technical-normative data by identifying and applying a suitable methodology to evaluate the health risk caused by the ingestion of agricultural products grown in contaminated soils. The risk analysis was applied to two contaminated areas in southern Italy using an innovative methodology based on widely accepted parameters for the determination of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs soil-plant bio-transfer factor in the case of horticultural crops. In addition, some concentration limits of PAHs in agricultural soils are proposed that may be of help to the competent authorities (health agencies, local authorities in delineating the areas requiring strict health surveillance of the food products cultivated.
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Postoperative mortality after inpatient surgery: Incidence and risk factors
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Karamarie Fecho
2008-09-01
Full Text Available Karamarie Fecho1, Anne T Lunney1, Philip G Boysen1, Peter Rock2, Edward A Norfleet11Department of Anesthesiology, School of Medicine, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC, USA; 2Department of Anesthesiology, University of Maryland, Baltimore, MD, USAPurpose: This study determined the incidence of and identified risk factors for 48 hour (h and 30 day (d postoperative mortality after inpatient operations.Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted using Anesthesiology’s Quality Indicator database as the main data source. The database was queried for data related to the surgical procedure, anesthetic care, perioperative adverse events, and birth/death/operation dates. The 48 h and 30 d cumulative incidence of postoperative mortality was calculated and data were analyzed using Chi-square or Fisher’s exact test and generalized estimating equations.Results: The 48 h and 30 d incidence of postoperative mortality was 0.57% and 2.1%, respectively. Higher American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status scores, extremes of age, emergencies, perioperative adverse events and postoperative Intensive Care Unit admission were identified as risk factors. The use of monitored anesthesia care or general anesthesia versus regional or combined anesthesia was a risk factor for 30 d postoperative mortality only. Time under anesthesia care, perioperative hypothermia, trauma, deliberate hypotension and invasive monitoring via arterial, pulmonary artery or cardiovascular catheters were not identified as risk factors.Conclusions: Our findings can be used to track postoperative mortality rates and to test preventative interventions at our institution and elsewhere.Keywords: postoperative mortality, risk factors, operations, anesthesia, inpatient surgery
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Aspects of the risk analysis in the process engineering industry
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hennings, W.; Madjar, M.; Mock, R.; Reer, B.
1996-01-01
This document is the result of a multi-discipline working group of a portion of a project called Risk analysis for chemical plants. Within the framework of the project, only selected methods and tools of risk analysis, thus, aspects of method, were able to be discussed and developed further. Case examples from the chemical industry are dealt with in order to discuss the application of a computer assisted quantitative error analysis in this industrial sector. Included is also a comprehensive documentation of the data and results utilised in the examples. figs., tabs., refs
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Is adaptation or transformation needed? Active nanomaterials and risk analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kuzma, Jennifer; Roberts, John Patrick
2016-01-01
Nanotechnology has been a key area of funding and policy for the United States and globally for the past two decades. Since nanotechnology research and development became a focus and nanoproducts began to permeate the market, scholars and scientists have been concerned about how to assess the risks that they may pose to human health and the environment. The newest generation of nanomaterials includes biomolecules that can respond to and influence their environments, and there is a need to explore whether and how existing risk-analysis frameworks are challenged by such novelty. To fill this niche, we used a modified approach of upstream oversight assessment (UOA), a subset of anticipatory governance. We first selected case studies of “active nanomaterials,” that are early in research and development and designed for use in multiple sectors, and then considered them under several, key risk-analysis frameworks. We found two ways in which the cases challenge the frameworks. The first category relates to how to assess risk under a narrow framing of the term (direct health and environmental harm), and the second involves the definition of what constitutes a “risk” worthy of assessment and consideration in decision making. In light of these challenges, we propose some changes for risk analysis in the face of active nanostructures in order to improve risk governance.
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Is adaptation or transformation needed? Active nanomaterials and risk analysis
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kuzma, Jennifer, E-mail: jkuzma@ncsu.edu [North Carolina State University, School of Public and International Affairs and Genetic Engineering and Society Center (United States); Roberts, John Patrick [North Carolina State University, School of Public and International Affairs (United States)
2016-07-15
Nanotechnology has been a key area of funding and policy for the United States and globally for the past two decades. Since nanotechnology research and development became a focus and nanoproducts began to permeate the market, scholars and scientists have been concerned about how to assess the risks that they may pose to human health and the environment. The newest generation of nanomaterials includes biomolecules that can respond to and influence their environments, and there is a need to explore whether and how existing risk-analysis frameworks are challenged by such novelty. To fill this niche, we used a modified approach of upstream oversight assessment (UOA), a subset of anticipatory governance. We first selected case studies of “active nanomaterials,” that are early in research and development and designed for use in multiple sectors, and then considered them under several, key risk-analysis frameworks. We found two ways in which the cases challenge the frameworks. The first category relates to how to assess risk under a narrow framing of the term (direct health and environmental harm), and the second involves the definition of what constitutes a “risk” worthy of assessment and consideration in decision making. In light of these challenges, we propose some changes for risk analysis in the face of active nanostructures in order to improve risk governance.
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
David, A.
1992-01-01
This paper reports that the oil industry has been an internationally based industry that has been heavily dependent on outside financing sources. Historically, financing came from investment houses that, in most cases, participated in the projects as equity investors. However, investment companies can no longer satisfy the capital requirements of the current high level of exploration and development activities. The current trend is to involve commercial banks on a purely lending basis. Commercial banks, by their nature, are risk averse. In the case of oil and gas exploration and production they are asked to take not only technical risk and price risk but geopolitical risk as well. Methods have been developed by commercial banks to reduce technical and price risks to point which enables them to be comfortable with a loan. However, geopolitical risks are more difficult to assess. The risk associated with many countries are the nationalization of the investment, new tax restrictions, restriction of currency movements, and/or revisions to the production sharing agreements
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A Graphical Adversarial Risk Analysis Model for Oil and Gas Drilling Cybersecurity
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Aitor Couce Vieira
2014-04-01
Full Text Available Oil and gas drilling is based, increasingly, on operational technology, whose cybersecurity is complicated by several challenges. We propose a graphical model for cybersecurity risk assessment based on Adversarial Risk Analysis to face those challenges. We also provide an example of the model in the context of an offshore drilling rig. The proposed model provides a more formal and comprehensive analysis of risks, still using the standard business language based on decisions, risks, and value.
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Surplus analysis of Sparre Andersen insurance risk processes
Willmot, Gordon E
2017-01-01
This carefully written monograph covers the Sparre Andersen process in an actuarial context using the renewal process as the model for claim counts. A unified reference on Sparre Andersen (renewal risk) processes is included, often missing from existing literature. The authors explore recent results and analyse various risk theoretic quantities associated with the event of ruin, including the time of ruin and the deficit of ruin. Particular attention is given to the explicit identification of defective renewal equation components, which are needed to analyse various risk theoretic quantities and are also relevant in other subject areas of applied probability such as dams and storage processes, as well as queuing theory. Aimed at researchers interested in risk/ruin theory and related areas, this work will also appeal to graduate students in classical and modern risk theory and Gerber-Shiu analysis.
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Case studies: Risk-based analysis of technical specifications
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wagner, D.P.; Minton, L.A.; Gaertner, J.P.
1987-01-01
The SOCRATES computer program uses the results of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) or a system level risk analysis to calculate changes in risk due to changes in the surveillance test interval and/or the allowed outage time stated in the technical specification. The computer program can accommodate various testing strategies (such as staggered or simultaneous testing) to allow modeling of component testing as it is carried out at a plant. The methods and computer program are an integral part of a larger decision process aimed at determining benefits from technical specification changes. These benefits can include cost savings to the utilities by reducing forced shutdowns with no adverse impacts on risk. Three summaries of case study applications are included to demonstrate the types of results that can be achieved through risk-based evaluation of technical specifications. (orig.)
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Experience Corps Baltimore: Exploring the Stressors and Rewards of High-intensity Civic Engagement.
Varma, Vijay R; Carlson, Michelle C; Parisi, Jeanine M; Tanner, Elizabeth K; McGill, Sylvia; Fried, Linda P; Song, Linda H; Gruenewald, Tara L
2015-12-01
Experience Corps (EC) represents a high-intensity, intergenerational civic engagement activity where older adults serve as mentors and tutors in elementary schools. Although high-intensity volunteer opportunities are designed to enhance the health and well being of older adult volunteers, little is known about the negative and positive aspects of volunteering unique to intergenerational programs from the volunteer's perspective. Stressors and rewards associated with volunteering in EC were explored in 8 focus group discussions with 46 volunteers from EC Baltimore. Transcripts were coded for frequently expressed themes. Participants reported stressors and rewards within 5 key domains: intergenerational (children's problem behavior, working with and helping children, observing/facilitating improvement or transformation in a child, and developing a special connection with a child); external to EC (poor parenting and children's social stressors); interpersonal (challenges in working with teachers and bonding/making social connections); personal (enjoyment, self-enhancement/achievement, and being/feeling more active); and structural (satisfaction with the structural elements of the EC program). Volunteers experienced unique intergenerational stressors related to children's problem behavior and societal factors external to the EC program. Overall, intergenerational, interpersonal, and personal rewards from volunteering, as well as program structure may have balanced the stress associated with volunteering. A better understanding of stressors and rewards from high-intensity volunteer programs may enhance our understanding of how intergenerational civic engagement volunteering affects well being in later life and may inform project modifications to maximize such benefits for future volunteers and those they serve. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e
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Automated procedure for performing computer security risk analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Smith, S.T.; Lim, J.J.
1984-05-01
Computers, the invisible backbone of nuclear safeguards, monitor and control plant operations and support many materials accounting systems. Our automated procedure to assess computer security effectiveness differs from traditional risk analysis methods. The system is modeled as an interactive questionnaire, fully automated on a portable microcomputer. A set of modular event trees links the questionnaire to the risk assessment. Qualitative scores are obtained for target vulnerability, and qualitative impact measures are evaluated for a spectrum of threat-target pairs. These are then combined by a linguistic algebra to provide an accurate and meaningful risk measure. 12 references, 7 figures
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Conflicting Incentives Risk Analysis: A Case Study of the Normative Peer Review Process
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Gaute Wangen
2015-07-01
Full Text Available This paper presents an approach to conduct risk assessments of complex incentive systems, using a case study of the normative Peer Review Process (PRP. This research centers on appliances and adaptations of the Conflicting Incentives Risk Analysis (CIRA. First as an approach to Root Cause Analysis of a known incident, and then for a full assessment of the incentives in the PRP together with possible risk treatments. CIRA uses an alternative notion of risk, where risk modeling is in terms of conflicting incentives between the risk owner and the stakeholders concerning the execution of actions. Compared to traditional risk assessment approaches, CIRA provides an insight into the underlying incentives behind a risk, and not just the technical vulnerability, likelihood and consequence. The main contributions of this work are an approach to obtain insight into incentives as root causes, and an approach to detecting and analyzing risks from incentives in the normative PRP. This paper also discusses risk treatments in terms of incentives to make the PRP more robust, together with a discussion of how to approach risk analysis of incentives.
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Risk as analysis and risk as feelings: some thoughts about affect, reason, risk, and rationality.
Slovic, Paul; Finucane, Melissa L; Peters, Ellen; MacGregor, Donald G
2004-04-01
Modern theories in cognitive psychology and neuroscience indicate that there are two fundamental ways in which human beings comprehend risk. The "analytic system" uses algorithms and normative rules, such as probability calculus, formal logic, and risk assessment. It is relatively slow, effortful, and requires conscious control. The "experiential system" is intuitive, fast, mostly automatic, and not very accessible to conscious awareness. The experiential system enabled human beings to survive during their long period of evolution and remains today the most natural and most common way to respond to risk. It relies on images and associations, linked by experience to emotion and affect (a feeling that something is good or bad). This system represents risk as a feeling that tells us whether it is safe to walk down this dark street or drink this strange-smelling water. Proponents of formal risk analysis tend to view affective responses to risk as irrational. Current wisdom disputes this view. The rational and the experiential systems operate in parallel and each seems to depend on the other for guidance. Studies have demonstrated that analytic reasoning cannot be effective unless it is guided by emotion and affect. Rational decision making requires proper integration of both modes of thought. Both systems have their advantages, biases, and limitations. Now that we are beginning to understand the complex interplay between emotion and reason that is essential to rational behavior, the challenge before us is to think creatively about what this means for managing risk. On the one hand, how do we apply reason to temper the strong emotions engendered by some risk events? On the other hand, how do we infuse needed "doses of feeling" into circumstances where lack of experience may otherwise leave us too "coldly rational"? This article addresses these important questions.
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ANALYSIS METHODS OF BANKRUPTCY RISK IN ROMANIAN ENERGY MINING INDUSTRY
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
CORICI MARIAN CATALIN
2016-12-01
Full Text Available The study is an analysis of bankruptcy risk and assessing the economic performance of the entity in charge of energy mining industry from southwest region. The scientific activity assesses the risk of bankruptcy using score’s method and some indicators witch reflecting the results obtained and elements from organization balance sheet involved in mining and energy which contributes to the stability of the national energy system. Analysis undertaken is focused on the application of the business organization models that allow a comprehensive assessment of the risk of bankruptcy and be an instrument of its forecast. In this study will be highlighted developments bankruptcy risk within the organization through the Altman model and Conan-Holder model in order to show a versatile image on the organization's ability to ensure business continuity
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The Financial Analysis with Focus of Risks in the Banking System
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Aleisky González-Duany
2017-06-01
Full Text Available The article consists in exposes the importance, need and convenience to develop a financial analysis with focus of risks in the banking activity to avoid damages and to take exactly and opportunity decisions. This analysis linked with bank risks will allow to the banking system measuring the efficiency in the different services that you render, detecting the different inherent risks to the financial activity with a former focus before, for the sake of giving fulfillment to the organizational goals
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Risk analysis of geothermal power plants using Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) technique
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Feili, Hamid Reza; Akar, Navid; Lotfizadeh, Hossein; Bairampour, Mohammad; Nasiri, Sina
2013-01-01
Highlights: • Using Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) to find potential failures in geothermal power plants. • We considered 5 major parts of geothermal power plants for risk analysis. • Risk Priority Number (RPN) is calculated for all failure modes. • Corrective actions are recommended to eliminate or decrease the risk of failure modes. - Abstract: Renewable energy plays a key role in the transition toward a low carbon economy and the provision of a secure supply of energy. Geothermal energy is a versatile source as a form of renewable energy that meets popular demand. Since some Geothermal Power Plants (GPPs) face various failures, the requirement of a technique for team engineering to eliminate or decrease potential failures is considerable. Because no specific published record of considering an FMEA applied to GPPs with common failure modes have been found already, in this paper, the utilization of Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) as a convenient technique for determining, classifying and analyzing common failures in typical GPPs is considered. As a result, an appropriate risk scoring of occurrence, detection and severity of failure modes and computing the Risk Priority Number (RPN) for detecting high potential failures is achieved. In order to expedite accuracy and ability to analyze the process, XFMEA software is utilized. Moreover, 5 major parts of a GPP is studied to propose a suitable approach for developing GPPs and increasing reliability by recommending corrective actions for each failure mode
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A Flood Risk Assessment of Quang Nam, Vietnam Using Spatial Multicriteria Decision Analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Chinh Luu
2018-04-01
Full Text Available Vietnam is highly vulnerable to flood and storm impacts. Holistic flood risk assessment maps that adequately consider flood risk factors of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability are not available. These are vital for flood risk preparedness and disaster mitigation measures at the local scale. Unfortunately, there is a lack of knowledge about spatial multicriteria decision analysis and flood risk analysis more broadly in Vietnam. In response to this need, we identify and quantify flood risk components in Quang Nam province through spatial multicriteria decision analysis. The study presents a new approach to local flood risk assessment mapping, which combines historical flood marks with exposure and vulnerability data. The flood risk map output could assist and empower decision-makers in undertaking flood risk management activities in the province. Our study demonstrates a methodology to build flood risk assessment maps using flood mark, exposure and vulnerability data, which could be applied in other provinces in Vietnam.
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Multi-hazard risk analysis using the FP7 RASOR Platform
Koudogbo, Fifamè N.; Duro, Javier; Rossi, Lauro; Rudari, Roberto; Eddy, Andrew
2014-10-01
Climate change challenges our understanding of risk by modifying hazards and their interactions. Sudden increases in population and rapid urbanization are changing exposure to risk around the globe, making impacts harder to predict. Despite the availability of operational mapping products, there is no single tool to integrate diverse data and products across hazards, update exposure data quickly and make scenario-based predictions to support both short and long-term risk-related decisions. RASOR (Rapid Analysis and Spatialization Of Risk) will develop a platform to perform multi-hazard risk analysis for the full cycle of disaster management, including targeted support to critical infrastructure monitoring and climate change impact assessment. A scenario-driven query system simulates future scenarios based on existing or assumed conditions and compares them with historical scenarios. RASOR will thus offer a single work environment that generates new risk information across hazards, across data types (satellite EO, in-situ), across user communities (global, local, climate, civil protection, insurance, etc.) and across the world. Five case study areas are considered within the project, located in Haiti, Indonesia, Netherlands, Italy and Greece. Initially available over those demonstration areas, RASOR will ultimately offer global services to support in-depth risk assessment and full-cycle risk management.
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Risk analysis of analytical validations by probabilistic modification of FMEA.
Barends, D M; Oldenhof, M T; Vredenbregt, M J; Nauta, M J
2012-05-01
Risk analysis is a valuable addition to validation of an analytical chemistry process, enabling not only detecting technical risks, but also risks related to human failures. Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) can be applied, using a categorical risk scoring of the occurrence, detection and severity of failure modes, and calculating the Risk Priority Number (RPN) to select failure modes for correction. We propose a probabilistic modification of FMEA, replacing the categorical scoring of occurrence and detection by their estimated relative frequency and maintaining the categorical scoring of severity. In an example, the results of traditional FMEA of a Near Infrared (NIR) analytical procedure used for the screening of suspected counterfeited tablets are re-interpretated by this probabilistic modification of FMEA. Using this probabilistic modification of FMEA, the frequency of occurrence of undetected failure mode(s) can be estimated quantitatively, for each individual failure mode, for a set of failure modes, and the full analytical procedure. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Rocky Flats Plant Live-Fire Range Risk Analysis Report
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Nicolosi, S.L.; Rodriguez, M.A.
1994-04-01
The objective of the Live-Fire Range Risk Analysis Report (RAR) is to provide an authorization basis for operation as required by DOE 5480.16. The existing Live-Fire Range does not have a safety analysis-related authorization basis. EG&G Rocky Flats, Inc. has worked with DOE and its representatives to develop a format and content description for development of an RAR for the Live-Fire Range. Development of the RAR is closely aligned with development of the design for a baffle system to control risks from errant projectiles. DOE 5480.16 requires either an RAR or a safety analysis report (SAR) for live-fire ranges. An RAR rather than a SAR was selected in order to gain flexibility to more closely address the safety analysis and conduct of operation needs for a live-fire range in a cost-effective manner.
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Economic impact assessment in pest risk analysis
Soliman, T.A.A.; Mourits, M.C.M.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.; Werf, van der W.
2010-01-01
According to international treaties, phytosanitary measures against introduction and spread of invasive plant pests must be justified by a science-based pest risk analysis (PRA). Part of the PRA consists of an assessment of potential economic consequences. This paper evaluates the main available
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Migraine Headache and Ischemic Stroke Risk: An Updated Meta-analysis
Spector, June T.; Kahn, Susan R.; Jones, Miranda R.; Jayakumar, Monisha; Dalal, Deepan; Nazarian, Saman
2010-01-01
Background Observational studies, including recent large cohort studies which were unavailable for prior meta-analysis, have suggested an association between migraine headache and ischemic stroke. We performed an updated meta-analysis to quantitatively summarize the strength of association between migraine and ischemic stroke risk. Methods We systematically searched electronic databases, including MEDLINE and EMBASE, through February 2009 for studies of human subjects in the English language. Study selection using a priori selection criteria, data extraction, and assessment of study quality were conducted independently by reviewer pairs using standardized forms. Results Twenty-one (60%) of 35 studies met the selection criteria, for a total of 622,381 participants (13 case-control, 8 cohort studies) included in the meta-analysis. The pooled adjusted odds ratio of ischemic stroke comparing migraineurs to non-migraineurs using a random effects model was 2.30 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.91-2.76). The pooled adjusted effect estimates for studies that reported relative risks and hazard ratios, respectively, were 2.41 (95% CI, 1.81-3.20) and 1.52 (95% CI, 0.99-2.35). The overall pooled effect estimate was 2.04 (95% CI, 1.72-2.43). Results were robust to sensitivity analyses excluding lower quality studies. Conclusions Migraine is associated with increased ischemic stroke risk. These findings underscore the importance of identifying high-risk migraineurs with other modifiable stroke risk factors. Future studies of the effect of migraine treatment and modifiable risk factor reduction on stroke risk in migraineurs are warranted. PMID:20493462
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Risk analysis in oil spill response planning
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chernoplekov, A.N.; Alexandrov, A.A.
2005-01-01
Tiered response is a basic approach to emergency plans, including oil spill response (OSR). This paper delineates a huge set of accidental scenarios within a certain tier of response generated by a computer during risk assessment. Parameters such as the amount of oil spilled, duration of discharge and types of losses should be provided in OSR scenarios. Examples of applications include offshore installations, sub sea or onshore pipelines, and localized onshore facilities. The paper demonstrates how to use risk analysis results for delineating all likely spills into groups that need a specific tier response. The best world practices and Russian regulatory approaches were outlined and compared. Corresponding algorithms were developed and their application in pipelines was presented. The algorithm combines expert's skills and spill trajectory modeling with the net environmental benefit analysis principle into the incident specific emergency response planning. 9 refs., 13 tabs., 2 figs
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State of the art in benefit-risk analysis: introduction.
Verhagen, H; Tijhuis, M J; Gunnlaugsdóttir, H; Kalogeras, N; Leino, O; Luteijn, J M; Magnússon, S H; Odekerken, G; Pohjola, M V; Tuomisto, J T; Ueland, Ø; White, B C; Holm, F
2012-01-01
Risk-taking is normal in everyday life if there are associated (perceived) benefits. Benefit-Risk Analysis (BRA) compares the risk of a situation to its related benefits and addresses the acceptability of the risk. Over the past years BRA in relation to food and food ingredients has gained attention. Food, and even the same food ingredient, may confer both beneficial and adverse effects. Measures directed at food safety may lead to suboptimal or insufficient levels of ingredients from a benefit perspective. In BRA, benefits and risks of food (ingredients) are assessed in one go and may conditionally be expressed into one currency. This allows the comparison of adverse and beneficial effects to be qualitative and quantitative. A BRA should help policy-makers to make more informed and balanced benefit-risk management decisions. Not allowing food benefits to occur in order to guarantee food safety is a risk management decision much the same as accepting some risk in order to achieve more benefits. BRA in food and nutrition is making progress, but difficulties remain. The field may benefit from looking across its borders to learn from other research areas. The BEPRARIBEAN project (Best Practices for Risk-Benefit Analysis: experience from out of food into food; http://en.opasnet.org/w/Bepraribean) aims to do so, by working together with Medicines, Food Microbiology, Environmental Health, Economics & Marketing-Finance and Consumer Perception. All perspectives are reviewed and subsequently integrated to identify opportunities for further development of BRA for food and food ingredients. Interesting issues that emerge are the varying degrees of risk that are deemed acceptable within the areas and the trend towards more open and participatory BRA processes. A set of 6 'state of the art' papers covering the above areas and a paper integrating the separate (re)views are published in this volume. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Risk analysis of releases from accidents during mid-loop operation at Surry
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jo, J.; Lin, C.C.; Nimnual, S.; Mubayi, V.; Neymotin, L.
1992-11-01
Studies and operating experience suggest that the risk of severe accidents during low power operation and/or shutdown (LP/S) conditions could be a significant fraction of the risk at full power operation. Two studies have begun at the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to evaluate the severe accident progression from a risk perspective during these conditions: One at the Brookhaven National Laboratory for the Surry plant, a pressurized water reactor (PWR), and the other at the Sandia National Laboratories for the Grand Gulf plant, a boiling water reactor (BWR). Each of the studies consists of three linked, but distinct, components: a Level I probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) of the initiating events, systems analysis, and accident sequences leading to core damage; a Level 2/3 analysis of accident progression, fuel damage, releases, containment performance, source term and consequences-off-site and on-site; and a detailed Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) of actions relevant to plant conditions during LP/S operations. This paper summarizes the approach taken for the Level 2/3 analysis at Surry and provides preliminary results on the risk of releases and consequences for one plant operating state, mid-loop operation, during shutdown
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Martínez, Airín D; Juon, Hee-soon; Levine, David M; Lyford-Pike, Victoria; Peters, Sadie
2014-07-07
Studies suggest that US Latinos have a higher prevalence of obesity than White Americans. However, obesity may differ by pre-immigration factors and Latinos' cultural representations of ideal body image. This paper explores whether country of origin's stage in the nutrition transition is related to Latino immigrants' BMI category and self-perception of weight. Primary data originated from a cross-sectional questionnaire of Latina/o immigrants in Baltimore in 2011. A convenience sample of self-identified Latinos, ≥18 years old, living in Baltimore was recruited from a community-based organization. Data for each country represented in the sample were obtained from the WHO Demographic and Health Surveys and the UN Food and Agriculture Organization. Each country was scored for its stage in the nutrition transition using a six-point scoring system. Descriptive statistics were conducted to characterize the sample. Bivariate analyses were conducted to examine the relationship between the outcome variables and the predictors. Multivariate logistic regressions were conducted to examine whether a country's stage in the nutrition transition increased one's odds of having an obese BMI score (≥30 kg/cm2) and perceiving one's weight as overweight, while controlling for socio-demographic variables. The sample (n = 149) consisted of immigrants from 12 Latin American countries. Participants lived in the US for x=10.24 years. About 40% of the sample had BMI ≥30 kg/m2 (obese). The longer Latina immigrants' lived in the US, the less likely their country of origin's nutrition transition score would increase their odds of having a BMI ≥30 kg/m2 (OR = 0.97 p nutrition transition score, the more likely BMI influenced Latino immigrants' perception of their weight as above normal (OR = 1.06, p nutrition transition score had a stronger effect on females than males. These results suggest that country of origin's nutrition transition score and gender affect Latino
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Applying Multi-Criteria Analysis Methods for Fire Risk Assessment
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Pushkina Julia
2015-11-01
Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to prove the application of multi-criteria analysis methods for optimisation of fire risk identification and assessment process. The object of this research is fire risk and risk assessment. The subject of the research is studying the application of analytic hierarchy process for modelling and influence assessment of various fire risk factors. Results of research conducted by the authors can be used by insurance companies to perform the detailed assessment of fire risks on the object and to calculate a risk extra charge to an insurance premium; by the state supervisory institutions to determine the compliance of a condition of object with requirements of regulations; by real state owners and investors to carry out actions for decrease in degree of fire risks and minimisation of possible losses.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Juhásová L.
2017-06-01
Full Text Available The combination of multicriteria analysis (MCA, particularly analytic hierarchy process (AHP and geographic information system (GIS were applied for transmission risk assessment of Fascioloides magna (Trematoda; Fasciolidae in south-western Slovakia. Based on the details on F. magna life cycle, the following risk factors (RF of parasite transmission were determined: intermediate (RFIH and final hosts (RFFH (biological factors, annual precipitation (RFAP, land use (RFLU, flooded area (RFFA, and annual mean air temperature (RFAT (environmental factors. Two types of risk analyses were modelled: (1 potential risk analysis was focused on the determination of the potential risk of parasite transmission into novel territories (data on F. magna occurrence were excluded; (2 actual risk analysis considered also the summary data on F. magna occurrence in the model region (risk factor parasite occurrence RFPO included in the analysis. The results of the potential risk analysis provided novel distribution pattern and revealed new geographical area as the potential risk zone of F. magna occurrence. Although the actual risk analysis revealed all four risk zones of F. magna transmission (acceptable, moderate, undesirable and unacceptable, its outputs were significantly affected by the data on parasite occurrence what reduced the informative value of the actual transmission risk assessment.
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Quantitative risk analysis in two pipelines operated by TRANSPETRO
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Garcia, Claudio B. [PETROBRAS Transporte S/A (TRANSPETRO), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Pinho, Edson [Universidade Federal Rural do Rio de Janeiro (UFRRJ), Seropedica, RJ (Brazil); Bittencourt, Euclides [Centro Universitario FIB, Salvador , BA (Brazil)
2009-07-01
Transportation risk analysis techniques were used to study two pipelines operated by TRANSPETRO. The Pipeline A is for the simultaneous transportation of diesel, gasoline and LPG and comprises three parts, all of them crossing rural areas. The Pipeline B is for oil transportation and one of its ends is located in an area of a high density population. Both pipelines had their risk studied using the PHAST RISK{sup R} software and the individual risk measures, the only considered measures for license purposes for this type of studies, presented level far below the maximum tolerable levels considered. (author)
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DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Elverdam, Beth; Hoel Felde, Lina Klara
phones; chemicals in a nursery; elevated cholesterol was combined to analyse the concept of risk in everyday life. In-depth qualitative interviews with 46 people made it possible to analyse a general perception of risk in everyday life. Interviews were analysed using a phenomenological thematical content...... analysis. Results: Although risk is communicated in the media and by health personnel, and thus has a general presence in society, participants in everyday life place risk at the periphery of life. Risk is not part of their everyday reflections. When risk manifests itself in everyday life, it is reflected...
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Ischemic risk stratification by means of multivariate analysis of the heart rate variability
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Valencia, José F; Vallverdú, Montserrat; Caminal, Pere; Porta, Alberto; Voss, Andreas; Schroeder, Rico; Vázquez, Rafael; Bayés de Luna, Antonio
2013-01-01
In this work, a univariate and multivariate statistical analysis of indexes derived from heart rate variability (HRV) was conducted to stratify patients with ischemic dilated cardiomyopathy (IDC) in cardiac risk groups. Indexes conditional entropy, refined multiscale entropy (RMSE), detrended fluctuation analysis, time and frequency analysis, were applied to the RR interval series (beat-to-beat series), for single and multiscale complexity analysis of the HRV in IDC patients. Also, clinical parameters were considered. Two different end-points after a follow-up of three years were considered: (i) analysis A, with 151 survivor patients as a low risk group and 13 patients that suffered sudden cardiac death as a high risk group; (ii) analysis B, with 192 survivor patients as a low risk group and 30 patients that suffered cardiac mortality as a high risk group. A univariate and multivariate linear discriminant analysis was used as a statistical technique for classifying patients in risk groups. Sensitivity (Sen) and specificity (Spe) were calculated as diagnostic criteria in order to evaluate the performance of the indexes and their linear combinations. Sen and Spe values of 80.0% and 72.9%, respectively, were obtained during daytime by combining one clinical parameter and one index from RMSE, and during nighttime Sen = 80% and Spe = 73.4% were attained by combining one clinical factor and two indexes from RMSE. In particular, relatively long time scales were more relevant for classifying patients into risk groups during nighttime, while during daytime shorter scales performed better. The results suggest that the left atrial size, indexed to body surface and RMSE indexes are those that allow enhanced classification of ischemic patients in their respective risk groups, confirming that a single measurement is not enough to fully characterize ischemic risk patients and the clinical relevance of HRV complexity measures. (paper)
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DIGITAL FLOOD INSURANCE RATE MAP DATABASE, BALTIMORE CITY, MARYLAND
Federal Emergency Management Agency, Department of Homeland Security — The Digital Flood Insurance Rate Map (DFIRM) Database depicts flood risk information and supporting data used to develop the risk data. The primary risk...
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sium Gebremariam
2018-04-01
Full Text Available The correlation between aerosol particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤2.5 μ m (PM2.5 and cloud base height (CBH of low clouds (CBH lower than 1.5 km a.g.l. at Baltimore and New York, United States, for an 8 year period (2007–2014 was investigated using information from the Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS observations and collocated U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA observations. The lifting condensation level (LCL heights were calculated and compared with the CBH. The monthly average observations show that PM2.5 decreases from 2007 to 2014 while there is no significant trend found for CBH and LCL. The variability of the LCL height agrees well with CBH but LCL height is systematically lower than CBH (~180 m lower. There was a significant negative correlation found between CBH–LCL and PM2.5. All of the cloud cases were separated into polluted and clean conditions based on the distribution of PM2.5 values. The distributions of CBH–LCL in the two groups show more cloud cases with smaller CBH–LCL in polluted conditions than in clean conditions.
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2011-12-06
... Rulemaking: State-78, Risk Analysis and Management Records SUMMARY: Notice is hereby given that the... portions of the Risk Analysis and Management (RAM) Records, State-78, system of records contain criminal...) * * * (2) * * * Risk Analysis and Management Records, STATE-78. * * * * * (b) * * * (1) * * * Risk Analysis...
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Powell, Terrinieka W; Weeks, Fiona H; Illangasekare, Samantha; Rice, Eric; Wilson, James; Hickman, Debra; Blum, Robert W
2017-02-01
Black churches are an important community resource and a potentially powerful actor in adolescent health promotion. However, limited research exists describing the factors that may influence the successful implementation of evidence-based adolescent sexual health programs in churches. In the present study, a multi-informant approach was used to identify facilitators and barriers to implementing adolescent sexual health programs in black churches. Nine Black churches located in Baltimore, MD, were recruited to participate in this study. The senior pastor and youth minster from each congregation participated in an in-depth interview (N = 18). A total of 45 youth (ages 13-19 years) and 38 parents participated in 15 focus groups. Qualitative data were transcribed verbatim and analyzed using a qualitative content analytic approach. Participants agreed that comprehensive adolescent sexual health education should be available for youth in black churches. They also believed that abstaining from sex should be discussed in all adolescent sexual health programs. Three facilitators were discussed: widespread endorsement of church-based adolescent sexual health education, positive influence of youth ministers on youth, and life lessons as teaching tools. Four barriers are described: perceived resistance from congregants, discomfort among youth, lack of financial resources, and competing messages at home about sexual health. Our findings suggest that churches are a preferred place for adolescent sexual health education among some parents and youth. Study findings also reinforce the feasibility and desirably of church-based adolescent sexual health programs. Copyright © 2016 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Technical Overview of Ecological Risk Assessment - Analysis Phase: Exposure Characterization
Exposure Characterization is the second major component of the analysis phase of a risk assessment. For a pesticide risk assessment, the exposure characterization describes the potential or actual contact of a pesticide with a plant, animal, or media.
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H15-42: CFD analysis for risk analysis in urban environments - Tilburg city case study
Hulsbosch-Dam, C.; Mack, A.; Ratingen, S. van; Rosmuller, N.; Trijssenaar, I.
2013-01-01
For risk analysis studies, relatively simple dispersion models are generally applied, such as Gaussian dispersion and dense gas dispersion models. For rail transport risk analyses in the Netherlands, fixed consequence distances are applied for various standard scenarios of hazardous materials
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Analysis of Blade Fragment Risk at a Wind Energy Facility
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Simms, David A [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Larwood, Scott [University of the Pacific
2018-04-06
An analysis was performed to determine the risk posed by wind turbine fragments on roads and buildings at the National Wind Technology Center at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The authors used a previously developed model of fragment trajectory and took into account the wind speed/direction distribution at the site and the probability of rotor failure. The risk was assessed by determining the likelihood of impact and related consequences. For both the roads and buildings, the risk varied from low to routine, which was considered acceptable. The analysis was compared with previous recommendations on wind turbine setback distances. The results showed that a setback to property lines of 2 times the overall turbine height would be acceptable. However, the setback to dwellings should probably be increased from 3 to 3.5 times the overall turbine height for an acceptable risk.
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Liquidity Risk Management: An Empirical Analysis on Panel Data Analysis and ISE Banking Sector
Sibel ÇELİK; Yasemin Deniz AKARIM
2012-01-01
In this paper, we test the factors affecting liquidity risk management in banking sector in Turkey by using panel regression analysis. We use the data for 9 commercial banks traded in Istanbul Stock Exchange for the period 1998-2008. In conclusion, we find that risky liquid assets and return on equity variables are negatively related with liquidity risk. However, external financing and return on asset variables are positively related with liquidity risk. This finding is importance for banks s...
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Advanced risk analysis of systems endangered by ESD
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kiss, Istvan; Szedenik, Norbert; Nemeth, Balint; Gulyas, Attila; Berta, Istvan
2008-01-01
Evaluation of industrial processes to determine risk of fire or explosion caused by electrostatic discharge (ESD) is even nowadays qualitative in most cases. Although qualitative analysis significantly helps to make an industrial process safer, it is based on the survey of the process and strongly subjective, depending on the estimation of an expert. Fault tree analysis is a traditional method to quantify the risk; it helps to select optimal protection. However, determination of top event, secondary events and basic events of the fault tree is difficult, especially the quantification of the probabilities of the basic events. In several cases no statistical information is available for most of the events. Using fuzzy membership functions instead of simple numbers for the quantification of probabilities makes it possible to take this uncertainty into consideration. Fuzzy logic based fault tree analysis of chemical processes were made to determine the effect of basic events on the probability of the top event (explosion or fire) and its reliability.
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Flood Hazard and Risk Analysis in Urban Area
Huang, Chen-Jia; Hsu, Ming-hsi; Teng, Wei-Hsien; Lin, Tsung-Hsien
2017-04-01
Typhoons always induce heavy rainfall during summer and autumn seasons in Taiwan. Extreme weather in recent years often causes severe flooding which result in serious losses of life and property. With the rapid industrial and commercial development, people care about not only the quality of life, but also the safety of life and property. So the impact of life and property due to disaster is the most serious problem concerned by the residents. For the mitigation of the disaster impact, the flood hazard and risk analysis play an important role for the disaster prevention and mitigation. In this study, the vulnerability of Kaohsiung city was evaluated by statistics of social development factor. The hazard factors of Kaohsiung city was calculated by simulated flood depth of six different return periods and four typhoon events which result in serious flooding in Kaohsiung city. The flood risk can be obtained by means of the flood hazard and social vulnerability. The analysis results provide authority to strengthen disaster preparedness and to set up more resources in high risk areas.
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Risk analysis within environmental impact assessment of proposed construction activity
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Zeleňáková, Martina; Zvijáková, Lenka
2017-01-15
Environmental impact assessment is an important process, prior to approval of the investment plan, providing a detailed examination of the likely and foreseeable impacts of proposed construction activity on the environment. The objective of this paper is to develop a specific methodology for the analysis and evaluation of environmental impacts of selected constructions – flood protection structures using risk analysis methods. The application of methodology designed for the process of environmental impact assessment will develop assumptions for further improvements or more effective implementation and performance of this process. The main objective of the paper is to improve the implementation of the environmental impact assessment process. Through the use of risk analysis methods in environmental impact assessment process, the set objective has been achieved. - Highlights: This paper is informed by an effort to develop research with the aim of: • Improving existing qualitative and quantitative methods for assessing the impacts • A better understanding of relations between probabilities and consequences • Methodology for the EIA of flood protection constructions based on risk analysis • Creative approaches in the search for environmentally friendly proposed activities.
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Risk analysis within environmental impact assessment of proposed construction activity
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zeleňáková, Martina; Zvijáková, Lenka
2017-01-01
Environmental impact assessment is an important process, prior to approval of the investment plan, providing a detailed examination of the likely and foreseeable impacts of proposed construction activity on the environment. The objective of this paper is to develop a specific methodology for the analysis and evaluation of environmental impacts of selected constructions – flood protection structures using risk analysis methods. The application of methodology designed for the process of environmental impact assessment will develop assumptions for further improvements or more effective implementation and performance of this process. The main objective of the paper is to improve the implementation of the environmental impact assessment process. Through the use of risk analysis methods in environmental impact assessment process, the set objective has been achieved. - Highlights: This paper is informed by an effort to develop research with the aim of: • Improving existing qualitative and quantitative methods for assessing the impacts • A better understanding of relations between probabilities and consequences • Methodology for the EIA of flood protection constructions based on risk analysis • Creative approaches in the search for environmentally friendly proposed activities.
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Dias, Jenny Pena; Schrack, Jennifer A; Shardell, Michelle D; Egan, Josephine M; Studenski, Stephanie
2016-06-01
Abdominal fat is a major determinant of metabolic diseases in older individuals. Obesity and diabetes are associated with low serum amylase (SA) levels, but the association between SA and metabolic disease is poorly understood. We investigated the association of low SA with diabetes and sex-specific associations of serum amylase with abdominal fat in older adults. In community-dwelling volunteers from the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging (778 participants, age 66.8±13.6years), we assessed abdominal fat by computed tomography and diabetes status using the American Diabetes Association criteria. Linear regression analyses assessed the cross-sectional associations between abdominal fat and SA, and logistic regression assessed the odds of diabetes, given low SA. In unadjusted analyses, individuals in the lowest SA quartile (abdominal subcutaneous adipose tissue (SAT, dm(2)) or BMI. In adjusted analyses, VAT and SAT were significantly associated with SA in both sexes. Among women, SA was more strongly associated with VAT than with SAT or BMI; VAT (β=-0.117±0.048, Pabdominal visceral fat. In women, SA was more strongly associated with VAT than with BMI or SAT. These findings provide motivation for future mechanistic studies on SA's role in metabolic diseases. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.
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Romolini, Michele; Morgan Grove, J; Ventriss, Curtis L; Koliba, Christopher J; Krymkowski, Daniel H
2016-08-01
Efforts to create more sustainable cities are evident in the proliferation of sustainability policies in cities worldwide. It has become widely proposed that the success of these urban sustainability initiatives will require city agencies to partner with, and even cede authority to, organizations from other sectors and levels of government. Yet the resulting collaborative networks are often poorly understood, and the study of large whole networks has been a challenge for researchers. We believe that a better understanding of citywide environmental governance networks can inform evaluations of their effectiveness, thus contributing to improved environmental management. Through two citywide surveys in Baltimore and Seattle, we collected data on the attributes of environmental stewardship organizations and their network relationships. We applied missing data treatment approaches and conducted social network and comparative analyses to examine (a) the organizational composition of the network, and (b) how information and knowledge are shared throughout the network. Findings revealed similarities in the number of actors and their distribution across sectors, but considerable variation in the types and locations of environmental stewardship activities, and in the number and distribution of network ties in the networks of each city. We discuss the results and potential implications of network research for urban sustainability governance.
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Risk and safety analysis of nuclear systems
Lee, John C
2011-01-01
The book has been developed in conjunction with NERS 462, a course offered every year to seniors and graduate students in the University of Michigan NERS program. The first half of the book covers the principles of risk analysis, the techniques used to develop and update a reliability data base, the reliability of multi-component systems, Markov methods used to analyze the unavailability of systems with repairs, fault trees and event trees used in probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs), and failure modes of systems. All of this material is general enough that it could be used in non-nuclear a
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Game Theoretic Risk Analysis of Security Threats
Bier, Vicki M
2008-01-01
Introduces reliability and risk analysis in the face of threats by intelligent agents. This book covers applications to networks, including problems in both telecommunications and transportation. It provides a set of tools for applying game theory TO reliability problems in the presence of intentional, intelligent threats
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Gambler Risk Perception: A Mental Model and Grounded Theory Analysis.
Spurrier, Michael; Blaszczynski, Alexander; Rhodes, Paul
2015-09-01
Few studies have investigated how gamblers perceive risk or the role of risk perception in disordered gambling. The purpose of the current study therefore was to obtain data on lay gamblers' beliefs on these variables and their effects on decision-making, behaviour, and disordered gambling aetiology. Fifteen regular lay gamblers (non-problem/low risk, moderate risk and problem gamblers) completed a semi-structured interview following mental models and grounded theory methodologies. Gambler interview data was compared to an expert 'map' of risk-perception, to identify comparative gaps or differences associated with harmful or safe gambling. Systematic overlapping processes of data gathering and analysis were used to iteratively extend, saturate, test for exception, and verify concepts and themes emerging from the data. The preliminary findings suggested that gambler accounts supported the presence of expert conceptual constructs, and to some degree the role of risk perception in protecting against or increasing vulnerability to harm and disordered gambling. Gambler accounts of causality, meaning, motivation, and strategy were highly idiosyncratic, and often contained content inconsistent with measures of disordered gambling. Disordered gambling appears heavily influenced by relative underestimation of risk and overvaluation of gambling, based on explicit and implicit analysis, and deliberate, innate, contextual, and learned processing evaluations and biases.
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Iman, R.L.; Helton, J.C.
1985-01-01
Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is playing an increasingly important role in the nuclear reactor regulatory process. The assessment of uncertainties associated with PRA results is widely recognized as an important part of the analysis process. One of the major criticisms of the Reactor Safety Study was that its representation of uncertainty was inadequate. The desire for the capability to treat uncertainties with the MELCOR risk code being developed at Sandia National Laboratories is indicative of the current interest in this topic. However, as yet, uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis in the context of PRA is a relatively immature field. In this paper, available methods for uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis in a PRA are reviewed. This review first treats methods for use with individual components of a PRA and then considers how these methods could be combined in the performance of a complete PRA. In the context of this paper, the goal of uncertainty analysis is to measure the imprecision in PRA outcomes of interest, and the goal of sensitivity analysis is to identify the major contributors to this imprecision. There are a number of areas that must be considered in uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis for a PRA: (1) information, (2) systems analysis, (3) thermal-hydraulic phenomena/fission product behavior, (4) health and economic consequences, and (5) display of results. Each of these areas and the synthesis of them into a complete PRA are discussed
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A Model of Risk Analysis in Analytical Methodology for Biopharmaceutical Quality Control.
Andrade, Cleyton Lage; Herrera, Miguel Angel De La O; Lemes, Elezer Monte Blanco
2018-01-01
One key quality control parameter for biopharmaceutical products is the analysis of residual cellular DNA. To determine small amounts of DNA (around 100 pg) that may be in a biologically derived drug substance, an analytical method should be sensitive, robust, reliable, and accurate. In principle, three techniques have the ability to measure residual cellular DNA: radioactive dot-blot, a type of hybridization; threshold analysis; and quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Quality risk management is a systematic process for evaluating, controlling, and reporting of risks that may affects method capabilities and supports a scientific and practical approach to decision making. This paper evaluates, by quality risk management, an alternative approach to assessing the performance risks associated with quality control methods used with biopharmaceuticals, using the tool hazard analysis and critical control points. This tool provides the possibility to find the steps in an analytical procedure with higher impact on method performance. By applying these principles to DNA analysis methods, we conclude that the radioactive dot-blot assay has the largest number of critical control points, followed by quantitative polymerase chain reaction, and threshold analysis. From the analysis of hazards (i.e., points of method failure) and the associated method procedure critical control points, we conclude that the analytical methodology with the lowest risk for performance failure for residual cellular DNA testing is quantitative polymerase chain reaction. LAY ABSTRACT: In order to mitigate the risk of adverse events by residual cellular DNA that is not completely cleared from downstream production processes, regulatory agencies have required the industry to guarantee a very low level of DNA in biologically derived pharmaceutical products. The technique historically used was radioactive blot hybridization. However, the technique is a challenging method to implement in a quality
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Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Russell, K.D.; McKay, M.K.; Sattison, M.B.; Skinner, N.L.; Wood, S.T.; Rasmuson, D.M.
1992-01-01
The Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) is a state-of-the-art, microcomputer-based probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model development and analysis tool to address key nuclear plant safety issues. IRRAS is an integrated software tool that gives the user the ability to create and analyze fault trees and accident sequences using a microcomputer. This program provides functions that range from graphical fault tree construction to cut set generation and quantification. Version 1.0 of the IRRAS program was released in February of 1987. Since that time, many user comments and enhancements have been incorporated into the program providing a much more powerful and user-friendly system. This version has been designated IRRAS 4.0 and is the subject of this Reference Manual. Version 4.0 of IRRAS provides the same capabilities as Version 1.0 and adds a relational data base facility for managing the data, improved functionality, and improved algorithm performance
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Risk Analysis of a Fuel Storage Terminal Using HAZOP and FTA
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
José Luis Fuentes-Bargues
2017-06-01
Full Text Available The size and complexity of industrial chemical plants, together with the nature of the products handled, means that an analysis and control of the risks involved is required. This paper presents a methodology for risk analysis in chemical and allied industries that is based on a combination of HAZard and OPerability analysis (HAZOP and a quantitative analysis of the most relevant risks through the development of fault trees, fault tree analysis (FTA. Results from FTA allow prioritizing the preventive and corrective measures to minimize the probability of failure. An analysis of a case study is performed; it consists in the terminal for unloading chemical and petroleum products, and the fuel storage facilities of two companies, in the port of Valencia (Spain. HAZOP analysis shows that loading and unloading areas are the most sensitive areas of the plant and where the most significant danger is a fuel spill. FTA analysis indicates that the most likely event is a fuel spill in tank truck loading area. A sensitivity analysis from the FTA results show the importance of the human factor in all sequences of the possible accidents, so it should be mandatory to improve the training of the staff of the plants.
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Risk Analysis of a Fuel Storage Terminal Using HAZOP and FTA.
Fuentes-Bargues, José Luis; González-Cruz, Mª Carmen; González-Gaya, Cristina; Baixauli-Pérez, Mª Piedad
2017-06-30
The size and complexity of industrial chemical plants, together with the nature of the products handled, means that an analysis and control of the risks involved is required. This paper presents a methodology for risk analysis in chemical and allied industries that is based on a combination of HAZard and OPerability analysis (HAZOP) and a quantitative analysis of the most relevant risks through the development of fault trees, fault tree analysis (FTA). Results from FTA allow prioritizing the preventive and corrective measures to minimize the probability of failure. An analysis of a case study is performed; it consists in the terminal for unloading chemical and petroleum products, and the fuel storage facilities of two companies, in the port of Valencia (Spain). HAZOP analysis shows that loading and unloading areas are the most sensitive areas of the plant and where the most significant danger is a fuel spill. FTA analysis indicates that the most likely event is a fuel spill in tank truck loading area. A sensitivity analysis from the FTA results show the importance of the human factor in all sequences of the possible accidents, so it should be mandatory to improve the training of the staff of the plants.
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Risk analysis of external radiation therapy
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Arvidsson, Marcus
2011-09-01
External radiation therapy is carried out via a complex treatment process in which many different groups of staff work together. Much of the work is dependent on and in collaboration with advanced technical equipment. The purpose of the research task has been to identify a process for external radiation therapy and to identify, test and analyze a suitable method for performing risk analysis of external radiation therapy
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Development of seismic risk analysis methodologies at JAERI
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tanaka, T.; Abe, K.; Ebisawa, K.; Oikawa, T.
1988-01-01
The usefulness of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) is recognized worldwidely for balanced design and regulation of nuclear power plants. In Japan, the Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute (JAERI) has been engaged in developing methodologies necessary for carrying out PSA. The research and development program was started in 1980. In those days the effort was only for internal initiator PSA. In 1985 the program was expanded so as to include external event analysis. Although this expanded program is to cover various external initiators, the current effort is dedicated for seismic risk analysis. There are three levels of seismic PSA, similarly to internal initiator PSA: Level 1: Evaluation of core damage frequency, Level 2: Evaluation of radioactive release frequency and source terms, and Level 3: Evaluation of environmental consequence. In the JAERI's program, only the methodologies for level 1 seismic PSA are under development. The methodology development for seismic risk analysis is divided into two phases. The Phase I study is to establish a whole set of simple methodologies based on currently available data. In the Phase II, Sensitivity study will be carried out to identify the parameters whose uncertainty may result in lage uncertainty in seismic risk, and For such parameters, the methodology will be upgraded. Now the Phase I study has almost been completed. In this report, outlines of the study and some of its outcomes are described
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Hierarchical Modelling of Flood Risk for Engineering Decision Analysis
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Custer, Rocco
protection structures in the hierarchical flood protection system - is identified. To optimise the design of protection structures, fragility and vulnerability models must allow for consideration of decision alternatives. While such vulnerability models are available for large protection structures (e...... systems, as well as the implementation of the flood risk analysis methodology and the vulnerability modelling approach are illustrated with an example application. In summary, the present thesis provides a characterisation of hierarchical flood protection systems as well as several methodologies to model...... and robust. Traditional risk management solutions, e.g. dike construction, are not particularly flexible, as they are difficult to adapt to changing risk. Conversely, the recent concept of integrated flood risk management, entailing a combination of several structural and non-structural risk management...
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Environmental Risk Assessment: Spatial Analysis of Chemical Hazards and Risks in South Korea
Yu, H.; Heo, S.; Kim, M.; Lee, W. K.; Jong-Ryeul, S.
2017-12-01
This study identified chemical hazard and risk levels in Korea by analyzing the spatial distribution of chemical factories and accidents. The number of chemical factories and accidents in 5-km2 grids were used as the attribute value for spatial analysis. First, semi-variograms were conducted to examine spatial distribution patterns and to identify spatial autocorrelation of chemical factories and accidents. Semi-variograms explained that the spatial distribution of chemical factories and accidents were spatially autocorrelated. Second, the results of the semi-variograms were used in Ordinary Kriging to estimate chemical hazard and risk level. The level values were extracted from the Ordinary Kriging result and their spatial similarity was examined by juxtaposing the two values with respect to their location. Six peaks were identified in both the hazard and risk estimation result, and the peaks correlated with major cities in Korea. Third, the estimated hazard and risk levels were classified with geometrical interval and could be classified into four quadrants: Low Hazard and Low Risk (LHLR), Low Hazard and High Risk (LHHR), High Hazard and Low Risk (HHLR), and High Hazard and High Risk (HHHR). The 4 groups identified different chemical safety management issues in Korea; relatively safe LHLR group, many chemical reseller factories were found in HHLR group, chemical transportation accidents were in the LHHR group, and an abundance of factories and accidents were in the HHHR group. Each quadrant represented different safety management obstacles in Korea, and studying spatial differences can support the establishment of an efficient risk management plan.
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Khadam, Ibrahim M.; Kaluarachchi, Jagath J.
2003-01-01
Traditionally, environmental decision analysis in subsurface contamination scenarios is performed using cost-benefit analysis. In this paper, we discuss some of the limitations associated with cost-benefit analysis, especially its definition of risk, its definition of cost of risk, and its poor ability to communicate risk-related information. This paper presents an integrated approach for management of contaminated ground water resources using health risk assessment and economic analysis through a multi-criteria decision analysis framework. The methodology introduces several important concepts and definitions in decision analysis related to subsurface contamination. These are the trade-off between population risk and individual risk, the trade-off between the residual risk and the cost of risk reduction, and cost-effectiveness as a justification for remediation. The proposed decision analysis framework integrates probabilistic health risk assessment into a comprehensive, yet simple, cost-based multi-criteria decision analysis framework. The methodology focuses on developing decision criteria that provide insight into the common questions of the decision-maker that involve a number of remedial alternatives. The paper then explores three potential approaches for alternative ranking, a structured explicit decision analysis, a heuristic approach of importance of the order of criteria, and a fuzzy logic approach based on fuzzy dominance and similarity analysis. Using formal alternative ranking procedures, the methodology seeks to present a structured decision analysis framework that can be applied consistently across many different and complex remediation settings. A simple numerical example is presented to demonstrate the proposed methodology. The results showed the importance of using an integrated approach for decision-making considering both costs and risks. Future work should focus on the application of the methodology to a variety of complex field conditions to
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Environmental risk analysis for nanomaterials: Review and evaluation of frameworks
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Grieger, Khara Deanne; Linkov, Igor; Hansen, Steffen Foss
2012-01-01
to occupational settings with minor environmental considerations, and most have not been thoroughly tested on a wide range of NM. Care should also be taken when selecting the most appropriate risk analysis strategy for a given risk context. Given this, we recommend a multi-faceted approach to assess...... the environmental risks of NM as well as increased applications and testing of the proposed frameworks for different NM....
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Applied decision analysis and risk evaluation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ferse, W.; Kruber, S.
1995-01-01
During 1994 the workgroup 'Applied Decision Analysis and Risk Evaluation; continued the work on the knowledge based decision support system XUMA-GEFA for the evaluation of the hazard potential of contaminated sites. Additionally a new research direction was started which aims at the support of a later stage of the treatment of contaminated sites: The clean-up decision. For the support of decisions arising at this stage, the methods of decision analysis will be used. Computational aids for evaluation and decision support were implemented and a case study at a waste disposal site in Saxony which turns out to be a danger for the surrounding groundwater ressource was initiated. (orig.)
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Introduction to cost-effectiveness analysis of risk reduction measures in energy systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
1986-07-01
The aim of this report is to introduce readers to methods of cost-effectiveness analysis and their application in risk reduction, especially in connection with the energy-producing industries. The background to the assessment of risk and the problems in estimating it quantitatively are outlined. The methodology of cost-effectiveness analysis is then described, particular attention being given to the way in which results are derived and the overall use that can be made of them. This is followed by a discussion of quantitative applications and an outline of the methods that may be used to derive estimates both of risk and the cost of reducing it. The use of cost-effectiveness analysis is illustrated in an appendix, which gives as a worked example a case study on the reduction of public risk associated with radioactive releases during normal operation of a PWR. After drawing some general conclusions the report recommends that such analyses should normally be used as an aid to risk management whenever several alternative risk reduction measures are under consideration
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Risk-based configuration control system: Analysis and approaches
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Lofgren, E.V.; Vesely, W.E.
1990-01-01
This paper presents an analysis of risks associated with component outage configurations during power operation of a nuclear power plant and discusses approaches and strategies for developing a risk-based configuration control system. A configuration, as used here, is a set of component states. The objective of risk-based configuration control is to detect and control plant configurations using a risk-perspective. The configuration contributions to core-melt frequency and core-melt probability are studied for two plants. Large core-melt frequency can be caused by configurations and there are a number of such configurations that are not currently controlled by technical specifications. However, the expected frequency of occurrence of the impacting configurations is small and the actual core-melt probability contributions are also generally small. Effective strategies and criteria for controlling configuration risks are presented. Such control strategies take into consideration the risks associated with configurations, the nature and characteristics of the configuration risks, and also the practical considerations such as adequate repair times and/or options to transfer to low risk configurations. Alternative types of criteria are discussed that are not overly restrictive to result in unnecessary plant shutdown, but rather motivates effective test and maintenance practices that control risk-significant configurations to allow continued operation with an adequate margin to meet challenges to safety
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Risk-based configuration control system: Analysis and approaches
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Samanta, P.K.; Vesely, W.E.; Kim, I.S.; Lofgren, E.V.
1989-01-01
This paper presents an analysis of risks associated with component outage configurations during power operation of a nuclear power plant and discusses approaches and strategies for developing a risk-based configuration control system. A configuration, as used here, is a set of component states. The objective of risk-based configuration control is to detect and control plant configurations using a risk-perspective. The configuration contributions to core-melt frequency and core-melt probability are studied for two plants. Large core-melt frequency can be caused by configurations and there are a number of such configurations that are not currently controlled by technical specifications. However, the expected frequency of occurrence of the impacting configurations is small and the actual core-melt probability contributions are also generally small. Effective strategies and criteria for controlling configuration risks are presented. Such control strategies take into consideration the risks associated with configurations, the nature and characteristics of the configuration risks, and also the practical considerations such as adequate repair times and/or options to transfer to low risk configurations. Alternative types of criteria are discussed that are not overly restrictive to result in unnecessary plant shutdown, but rather motivates effective tests and maintenance practices that control; risk-significant configurations to allow continued operation with an adequate margin to meet challenges to safety. 3 refs., 7 figs., 2 tabs
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Myeloperoxidase polymorphism, menopausal status, and breast cancer risk: an update meta-analysis.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xue Qin
Full Text Available Myeloperoxidase (MPO is a metabolic/oxidative lysosomal enzyme secreted by reactive neutrophils at the sites of inflamed organs and tissues during phagocytosis. MPO has been either directly or indirectly linked to neoplasia, which is a well-established risk factor for many types of cancer. A large number of studies have reported the role of MPO G-463A polymorphism regarding breast-cancer risk. However, the published findings are inconsistent. Therefore, we conducted a meta-analysis to determine more precise estimations for the relationship. Eligible studies were identified by searching several electronic databases for relevant reports published before June 2012. According to the inclusion criteria and exclusion criteria, a total of five eligible studies were included in the pooled analyses. When the five eligible studies concerning MPO G-463A polymorphism were pooled into this meta-analysis, there was no evidence found for a significant association between MPO G-463A polymorphism and breast-cancer risk in any genetic model. We also categorized by ethnicity (Caucasian or Asian for subgroup analysis; according to this subgroup analysis, we found no significant association between MPO G-463A polymorphism and breast-cancer risk in any genetic model. However, in the stratified analysis for the premenopausal group, women carrying the AA genotype were found to have a significantly reduced risk (OR = 0.56, 95% CI 0.34-0.94, p = 0.027. Under the recessive model, there was a significant association between MPO G-463A polymorphism and breast-cancer risk (OR = 0.57, 95% CI 0.34-0.93, p = 0.025. We conclude that MPO-G463A polymorphism might not be a good predictor of breast-cancer risk, though menopausal status modified women's risk of developing breast cancer.
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The STABALID project: Risk analysis of stationary Li-ion batteries for power system applications
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Soares, F.J.; Carvalho, L.; Costa, I.C.; Iria, J.P.; Bodet, J.-M.; Jacinto, G.; Lecocq, A.; Roessner, J.; Caillard, B.; Salvi, O.
2015-01-01
This work presents a risk analysis performed to stationary Li-ion batteries within the framework of the STABALID project. The risk analysis had as main objective analysing the variety of hazards and dangerous situations that might be experienced by the battery during its life cycle and providing useful information on how to prevent or manage those undesired events. The first task of the risk analysis was the identification of all the hazards (or risks) that may arise during the battery life cycle. Afterwards, the hazards identified were mapped in the different stages of the battery life cycle and two analyses were performed for each stage: an internal problem analysis and an external peril analysis. For both, the dangerous phenomena and the undesirable events resulting from each hazard was evaluated in terms of probability of occurrence and severity. Then, a risk assessment was carried out according to a predefined risk matrix and a preliminary set of risk mitigation measures were proposed to reduce their probability of occurrence and/or their severity level. The results obtained show that it is possible to reduce the probability of occurrence/severity of all the risks associated to the battery life cycle to acceptable or tolerable levels. - Highlights: • Methodology for a detailed risk analysis of stationary Li-ion batteries. • Various hazards and dangerous situations are analysed with high detail. • Useful information on how to prevent or manage the undesired events is provided. • Measures to reduce probability of occurrence/severity of the risks are presented
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RiskChanges Spatial Decision Support system for the analysis of changing multi-hazard risk
van Westen, Cees; Zhang, Kaixi; Bakker, Wim; Andrejchenko, Vera; Berlin, Julian; Olyazadeh, Roya; Cristal, Irina
2015-04-01
Within the framework of the EU FP7 Marie Curie Project CHANGES and the EU FP7 Copernicus project INCREO a spatial decision support system was developed with the aim to analyse the effect of risk reduction planning alternatives on reducing the risk now and in the future, and support decision makers in selecting the best alternatives. Central to the SDSS are the stakeholders. The envisaged users of the system are organizations involved in planning of risk reduction measures, and that have staff capable of visualizing and analyzing spatial data at a municipal scale. The SDSS should be able to function in different countries with different legal frameworks and with organizations with different mandates. These could be subdivided into Civil protection organization with the mandate to design disaster response plans, Expert organizations with the mandate to design structural risk reduction measures (e.g. dams, dikes, check-dams etc), and planning organizations with the mandate to make land development plans. The SDSS can be used in different ways: analyzing the current level of risk, analyzing the best alternatives for risk reduction, the evaluation of the consequences of possible future scenarios to the risk levels, and the evaluation how different risk reduction alternatives will lead to risk reduction under different future scenarios. The SDSS is developed based on open source software and following open standards, for code as well as for data formats and service interfaces. Code development was based upon open source software as well. The architecture of the system is modular. The various parts of the system are loosely coupled, extensible, using standards for interoperability, flexible and web-based. The Spatial Decision Support System is composed of a number of integrated components. The Risk Assessment component allows to carry out spatial risk analysis, with different degrees of complexity, ranging from simple exposure (overlay of hazard and assets maps) to
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Risk and sensitivity analysis in relation to external events
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Alzbutas, R.; Urbonas, R.; Augutis, J.
2001-01-01
This paper presents risk and sensitivity analysis of external events impacts on the safe operation in general and in particular the Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant safety systems. Analysis is based on the deterministic and probabilistic assumptions and assessment of the external hazards. The real statistic data are used as well as initial external event simulation. The preliminary screening criteria are applied. The analysis of external event impact on the NPP safe operation, assessment of the event occurrence, sensitivity analysis, and recommendations for safety improvements are performed for investigated external hazards. Such events as aircraft crash, extreme rains and winds, forest fire and flying parts of the turbine are analysed. The models are developed and probabilities are calculated. As an example for sensitivity analysis the model of aircraft impact is presented. The sensitivity analysis takes into account the uncertainty features raised by external event and its model. Even in case when the external events analysis show rather limited danger, the sensitivity analysis can determine the highest influence causes. These possible variations in future can be significant for safety level and risk based decisions. Calculations show that external events cannot significantly influence the safety level of the Ignalina NPP operation, however the events occurrence and propagation can be sufficiently uncertain.(author)
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Carotenoids and risk of fracture: a meta-analysis of observational studies.
Xu, Jiuhong; Song, Chunli; Song, Xiaochao; Zhang, Xi; Li, Xinli
2017-01-10
To quantify the association between dietary and circulating carotenoids and fracture risk, a meta-analysis was conducted by searching MEDLINE and EMBASE databases for eligible articles published before May 2016. Five prospective and 2 case-control studies with 140,265 participants and 4,324 cases were identified in our meta-analysis. Among which 5 studies assessed the association between dietary carotenoids levels and hip fracture risk, 2 studies focused on the association between circulating carotenoids levels and any fracture risk. A random-effects model was employed to summarize the risk estimations and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Hip fracture risk among participants with high dietary total carotenoids intake was 28% lower than that in participants with low dietary total carotenoids (OR: 0.72; 95% CI: 0.51, 1.01). A similar risk of hip fracture was found for β-carotene based on 5 studies, the summarized OR for high vs. low dietary β-carotene was 0.72 (95% CI: 0.54, 0.95). However, a significant between-study heterogeneity was found (total carotene: I2 = 59.4%, P = 0.06; β-carotene: I2 = 74.4%, P = 0.04). Other individual carotenoids did not show significant associations with hip fracture risk. Circulating carotene levels had no significant association with any fracture risk, the pooled OR (95% CI) was 0.83 (0.59, 1.17). Based on the evidence from observational studies, our meta-analysis supported the hypothesis that higher dietary total carotenoids or β-carotene intake might be potentially associated with a low risk of hip fracture, however, future well-designed prospective cohort studies and randomized controlled trials are warranted to specify the associations between carotenoids and fracture.
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Gao, Yanhui; Liu, Li; Chen, Sidong
2013-01-01
Background Although previous meta-analyses have suggested an association between aspirin use and risk of gastric cancer, current evidence is inconsistent. Additionally, it remains unclear whether there are frequency-risk and duration-risk relationships and if a threshold of effect exists. Methods We identified studies by searching MEDLINE and PUBMED databases and reviewing relevant articles. We derived the summary risk estimates using fixed-effects or random-effects model based on homogeneity analysis. The dose-response meta-analysis was performed by linear trend regression and restricted cubic spline regression. Potential heterogeneity was tested using the Q statistic and quantified with the I 2 statistic. Subgroup analyses and Galbraith plots were used to explore the potential sources of heterogeneity. Publication bias was evaluated with funnel plots and quantified by the Begg's and Egger's test. Results Fifteen studies were included in this meta-analysis. There was an overall 29% reduced risk of gastric cancer corresponding to aspirin use (RR = 0.71, 95% CI 0.60–0.82). We found there are nonlinear frequency-risk and linear duration-risk relations between aspirin use and gastric cancer. A monotonically decreasing relation was observed only for low-frequency (≤4.5 times/week) aspirin intake (10% decreased risk for once/week, 19% for twice/week and 29% for 4.5 times/week), and the frequency threshold of aspirin use is 4.5 times per week. Regarding those with duration of aspirin use, there was a tendency towards stronger risk reduction of gastric cancer for longer aspirin use (10% decreased risk for 4 years, 19% for 8 years and 28% for 12 years), and no duration threshold was observed. Conclusion Our findings suggest that long-term (≥4 years) and low-frequency (1–4.5 times per week) aspirin use is associated with a statistically significant, dose-dependent reduction in the risk of gastric cancer. PMID:23936269
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xiaohua Ye
Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Although previous meta-analyses have suggested an association between aspirin use and risk of gastric cancer, current evidence is inconsistent. Additionally, it remains unclear whether there are frequency-risk and duration-risk relationships and if a threshold of effect exists. METHODS: We identified studies by searching MEDLINE and PUBMED databases and reviewing relevant articles. We derived the summary risk estimates using fixed-effects or random-effects model based on homogeneity analysis. The dose-response meta-analysis was performed by linear trend regression and restricted cubic spline regression. Potential heterogeneity was tested using the Q statistic and quantified with the I (2 statistic. Subgroup analyses and Galbraith plots were used to explore the potential sources of heterogeneity. Publication bias was evaluated with funnel plots and quantified by the Begg's and Egger's test. RESULTS: Fifteen studies were included in this meta-analysis. There was an overall 29% reduced risk of gastric cancer corresponding to aspirin use (RR = 0.71, 95% CI 0.60-0.82. We found there are nonlinear frequency-risk and linear duration-risk relations between aspirin use and gastric cancer. A monotonically decreasing relation was observed only for low-frequency (≤4.5 times/week aspirin intake (10% decreased risk for once/week, 19% for twice/week and 29% for 4.5 times/week, and the frequency threshold of aspirin use is 4.5 times per week. Regarding those with duration of aspirin use, there was a tendency towards stronger risk reduction of gastric cancer for longer aspirin use (10% decreased risk for 4 years, 19% for 8 years and 28% for 12 years, and no duration threshold was observed. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that long-term (≥4 years and low-frequency (1-4.5 times per week aspirin use is associated with a statistically significant, dose-dependent reduction in the risk of gastric cancer.
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Risk factors for chronic and recurrent otitis media-a meta-analysis.
Zhang, Yan; Xu, Min; Zhang, Jin; Zeng, Lingxia; Wang, Yanfei; Zheng, Qing Yin
2014-01-01
Risk factors associated with chronic otitis media (COM) and recurrent otitis media (ROM) have been investigated in previous studies. The objective of this study was to integrate the findings and determine the possible risk factors for COM/ROM based on our meta-analysis. A comprehensive search of electronic bibliographic databases (PubMed, Embase, CNKI and Wanfang database) from 1964 to Dec 2012, as well as a manual search of references of articles, was performed. A total of 2971 articles were searched, and 198 full-text articles were assessed for eligibility; 24 studies were eligible for this meta-analysis. Regarding risk factors for COM/ROM, there were two to nine different studies from which the odds ratios (ORs) could be pooled. The presence of allergy or atopy increased the risk of COM/ROM (OR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.13-1.64; P = 0.001). An upper respiratory tract infection (URTI) significantly increased the risk of COM/ROM (OR, 6.59; 95% CI, 3.13-13.89; Pmedia (AOM)/ROM increased the risk of COM/ROM (OR, 11.13; 95% CI, 1.06-116.44; P = 0.04). Passive smoke significantly increased the risk of COM/ROM (OR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.02-1.89 P = 0.04). Low social status appeared to be a risk factor for COM/ROM (OR, 3.82; 95% CI, 1.11-13.15; P = 0.03). Our meta-analysis identified reliable conclusions that allergy/atopy, URTI, snoring, previous history of AOM/ROM, Second-hand smoke and low social status are important risk factors for COM/ROM. Other unidentified risk factors need to be identified in further studies with critical criteria.
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Cardiovascular disease risk among breast cancer survivors: an evolutionary concept analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Vo JB
2017-02-01
Full Text Available Jacqueline B Vo,1 Timiya S Nolan,1 David E Vance,1 Patricia A Patrician,2 Karen Meneses1 1Office of Research and Scholarship, 2Department of Family, Community Health, and Systems, University of Alabama at Birmingham School of Nursing, Birmingham, AL, USA Background: More than 3.5 million breast cancer survivors are living in the US, and the overall five-year survival rate is approaching 90%. With increased survival and cancer treatment-related cardiotoxicities, there has been a rise in cardiovascular diseases among breast cancer survivors. Yet, cardiovascular disease risk among breast cancer survivors has not been well conceptualized. The purpose of this article was to analyze and define the concept of cardiovascular disease risk among breast cancer survivors. Methods: The databases CINAHL, EMBASE, and PubMed were used to identify articles that explored cardiovascular disease risk among breast cancer survivors. The search yielded 357 articles, which were reviewed for eligibility. Thirty articles were selected based on the inclusion/exclusion criteria. The concept of cardiovascular disease risk among breast cancer survivors was analyzed using Rodgers’ evolutionary concept analysis method. Results: The analysis suggests that cardiovascular disease risk among breast cancer survivors consists of several attributes: cancer treatment (chemotherapy, targeted therapies, radiation therapy, and endocrine therapy, modifiable risk factors (obesity, physical inactivity, poor diet, and smoking, and nonmodifiable risk factors (age, family history, and race. The antecedent identified includes breast cancer diagnosis and the consequence identified includes the development of cardiovascular disease. Conclusion: Findings suggest the need for increased education and understanding of cardiovascular disease risk among health care providers and patients. Survivorship care plans can incorporate cardiovascular disease risk monitoring and screening. Future research
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Personality and cognitive decline in the Baltimore Epidemiologic Catchment Area follow-up study.
Hock, Rebecca S; Lee, Hochang Benjamin; Bienvenu, O Joseph; Nestadt, Gerald; Samuels, Jack F; Parisi, Jeanine M; Costa, Paul T; Spira, Adam P
2014-09-01
To determine the association between personality domains and 11-year cognitive decline in a sample from a population-based study. Data from Waves 3 (1993-1996) and 4 (2003-2004) of the Baltimore cohort of the Epidemiologic Catchment Area (ECA) study were used for analyses. The sample included 561 adults (mean age ± SD: 45.2 ± 10.78 years) who completed the NEO Personality Inventory-Revised prior to Wave 4. Participants also completed the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) and immediate and delayed word recall tests at Wave 3, and at Wave 4, 10.9 ± 0.6 years later. In models adjusted for baseline cognitive performance, demographic characteristics, medical conditions, depressive symptoms, and psychotropic medication use, each 10-point increase in Neuroticism T-scores was associated with a 0.15-point decrease in MMSE scores (B = -0.15, 95% confidence interval [CI]: -0.30, -0.01), whereas each 10-point increase in Conscientiousness T-scores was associated with a 0.18-point increase on the MMSE (B = 0.18, 95% CI: 0.04, 0.32) and a 0.21-point increase in immediate recall (B = 0.21, 95% CI: 0.003, 0.41) between baseline and follow-up. Findings suggest that greater Neuroticism is associated with decline, and greater Conscientiousness is associated with improvement in performance on measures of general cognitive function and memory in adults. Further studies are needed to determine the extent to which personality traits in midlife are associated with clinically significant cognitive outcomes in older adults, such as mild cognitive impairment and dementia, and to identify potential mediators of the association between personality and cognitive trajectories. Copyright © 2014 American Association for Geriatric Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Marco Antônio César Villatore
2016-06-01
Full Text Available The problem that surrounds the issue of occupational risk is a phenomenon that plagues every society, because the work is a central element and gives force to the economy. In this sense, the exposure of workers to harmful activities that may cause damage to your health and physical and mental integrity, based on the monetization policy of risk adopted by the Brazilian legal system, can import costs to the workers, employers, the state and society. Thus, the present study seeks, from the labor law analysis and the use of concepts of Economic Analysis of Law, attest that the social costs caused by worker exposure to risk is, fallaciously shown, in a short-term smaller than that of prevention, but in the long run can import the burden on all parties of the employment relationship as well as the State and society, being necessary to use economic and legal measures for changing the monetization of risk policy, as in alien systems, as the Spanish Law analyzed.
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General overview and perspectives of risk analysis in Cuba
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Torres, A.; Rodriguez, J.M.; Vilaragut, J.J.; Valhuerdi, C.
1995-01-01
This papers shows a general overview of the application of risk analysis techniques in some potentially dangerous industries in Cuba. This paper summarizes the experiences of these sectors in the risk analysis with different specification levels and different approaches. Some experiences in the application of these analyses in the nuclear and aeronautical industries are shown. Some analyses of consequences in cases of accidents in the chemical industries in order to work due and improve emergency plans for responding to accident situations are presented in a more succinct manner. Also the perspectives to develop some of these tendencies and cooperation forms between them are summarized
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Ranganathan, Priya; Pramesh, C. S.; Aggarwal, Rakesh
2016-01-01
In the previous article in this series on common pitfalls in statistical analysis, we looked at the difference between risk and odds. Risk, which refers to the probability of occurrence of an event or outcome, can be defined in absolute or relative terms. Understanding what these measures represent is essential for the accurate interpretation of study results. PMID:26952180
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The benefits of integrating cost-benefit analysis and risk assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fisher, K.; Clarke-Whistler, K.
1995-01-01
It has increasingly been recognized that knowledge of risks in the absence of benefits and costs cannot dictate appropriate public policy choices. Recent evidence of this recognition includes the proposed EPA Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis Act of 1995, a number of legislative changes in Canada and the US, and the increasing demand for field studies combining measures of impacts, risks, costs and benefits. Failure to consider relative environmental and human health risks, benefits, and costs in making public policy decisions has resulted in allocating scarce resources away from areas offering the highest levels of risk reduction and improvements in health and safety. The authors discuss the implications of not taking costs and benefits into account in addressing environmental risks, drawing on examples from both Canada and the US. The authors also present the results of their recent field work demonstrating the advantages of considering costs and benefits in making public policy and site remediation decisions, including a study on the benefits and costs of prevention, remediation and monitoring techniques applied to groundwater contamination; the benefits and costs of banning the use of chlorine; and the benefits and costs of Canada's concept of disposing of high-level nuclear waste. The authors conclude that a properly conducted Cost-Benefit Analysis can provide critical input to a Risk Assessment and can ensure that risk management decisions are efficient, cost-effective and maximize improvement to environmental and human health
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An analysis of the public perception of flood risk on the Belgian coast.
Kellens, Wim; Zaalberg, Ruud; Neutens, Tijs; Vanneuville, Wouter; De Maeyer, Philippe
2011-07-01
In recent years, perception of flood risks has become an important topic to policy makers concerned with risk management and safety issues. Knowledge of the public risk perception is considered a crucial aspect in modern flood risk management as it steers the development of effective and efficient flood mitigation strategies. This study aimed at gaining insight into the perception of flood risks along the Belgian coast. Given the importance of the tourism industry on the Belgian coast, the survey considered both inhabitants and residential tourists. Based on actual expert's risk assessments, a high and a low risk area were selected for the study. Risk perception was assessed on the basis of scaled items regarding storm surges and coastal flood risks. In addition, various personal and residence characteristics were measured. Using multiple regression analysis, risk perception was found to be primarily influenced by actual flood risk estimates, age, gender, and experience with previous flood hazards. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.
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A Method of Fire Scenarios Identification in a Consolidated Fire Risk Analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lim, Ho Gon; Han, Sang Hoon; Yang, Joon Eon
2010-01-01
Conventional fire PSA consider only two cases of fire scenarios, that is one for fire without propagation and the other for single propagation to neighboring compartment. Recently, a consolidated fire risk analysis using single fault tree (FT) was developed. However, the fire scenario identification in the new method is similar to conventional fire analysis method. The present study develops a new method of fire scenario identification in a consolidated fire risk analysis method. An equation for fire propagation is developed to identify fire scenario and a mapping method of fire scenarios into internal event risk model is discussed. Finally, an algorithm for automatic program is suggested
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Meta-analysis on shift work and risks of specific obesity types.
Sun, M; Feng, W; Wang, F; Li, P; Li, Z; Li, M; Tse, G; Vlaanderen, J; Vermeulen, R; Tse, L A
2018-01-01
This systematic review and meta-analysis evaluated the associations between shift work patterns and risks of specific types of obesity. PubMed was searched until March 2017 for observational studies that examined the relationships between shift work patterns and obesity. Odds ratio for obesity was extracted using a fixed-effects or random-effects model. Subgroup meta-analyses were carried out for study design, specific obesity types and characteristics of shift work pattern. A total of 28 studies were included in this meta-analysis. The overall odds ratio of night shift work was 1.23 (95% confidence interval = 1.17-1.29) for risk of obesity/overweight. Cross-sectional studies showed a higher risk of 1.26 than those with the cohort design (risk ratio = 1.10). Shift workers had a higher frequency of developing abdominal obesity (odds ratio = 1.35) than other obesity types. Permanent night workers demonstrated a 29% higher risk than rotating shift workers (odds ratio 1.43 vs. 1.14). This meta-analysis confirmed the risks of night shift work for the development of overweight and obesity with a potential gradient association suggested, especially for abdominal obesity. Modification of working schedules is recommended, particularly for prolonged permanent night work. More accurate and detailed measurements on shift work patterns should be conducted in future research. © 2017 World Obesity Federation.
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ANALYSIS MODELS OF THE BANKRUPTCY RISK IN ROMANIA’S ENERGY SECTOR
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
MIRON VASILE CRISTIAN IOACHIM
2015-12-01
Full Text Available The risk, as a concept found in the economic sphere of business represents an analysis area often approached by researchers from the finance and accounting field. Although it is often seen, along with cost-effectiveness and value, as a fundamental element of finance (Stancu, I., 2007, the risk has often facets that make it useful also in analyzing other sides of the economic sphere of business, such as financial position and economic performance of it. From these meanings, we believe that the most suitable for this purpose is the one through which it is analyzed the ability of an entity to avoid bankruptcy. The present study has as main objectives the presentation of bankruptcy risk of an entity from a theoretical point of view and the analysis (from an empirical and comparative point of view through the scoring method of the implementation of various models for analyzing the risk of bankruptcy (Altman, Conan-holder, Taffler, Robertson in Romania’s energy sector, in order to issue an opinion regarding the optimal method for analyzing the bankruptcy risk in the energy sector. The results show that there are significant differences regarding the analysis of the bankruptcy risk through the appliction of different models, proposing the Conan-Holder model as the most appropriate for this sector.
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76 FR 76215 - Privacy Act; System of Records: State-78, Risk Analysis and Management Records
2011-12-06
... a system of records, Risk Analysis and Management Records, State-78, pursuant to the provisions of... INFORMATION: The Department of State proposes that the new system will be ``Risk Analysis and Management.... These standard routine uses apply to State-78, Risk Analysis and Management Records. POLICIES AND...
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tsubokawa, Hiroaki; Nagasaka, Toshinari; Sunaga, Yohei; Lee, Taiyoung; Taguchi, Hitoshi; Usuda, Yuichiro
2011-01-01
The Society for Risk Analysis Japan built the special website that reply to the people who are concerning the risk related to the Great East Japan Earthquake occurred on March 11, 2011. Although, there were many risk communication activities between the specialists of the risk research and citizens on the website, there are some significant problems for the risk communication using the website. This report summarizes the result of our activity. (author)
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An introductory guide to uncertainty analysis in environmental and health risk assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hoffman, F.O.; Hammonds, J.S.
1992-10-01
To compensate for the potential for overly conservative estimates of risk using standard US Environmental Protection Agency methods, an uncertainty analysis should be performed as an integral part of each risk assessment. Uncertainty analyses allow one to obtain quantitative results in the form of confidence intervals that will aid in decision making and will provide guidance for the acquisition of additional data. To perform an uncertainty analysis, one must frequently rely on subjective judgment in the absence of data to estimate the range and a probability distribution describing the extent of uncertainty about a true but unknown value for each parameter of interest. This information is formulated from professional judgment based on an extensive review of literature, analysis of the data, and interviews with experts. Various analytical and numerical techniques are available to allow statistical propagation of the uncertainty in the model parameters to a statement of uncertainty in the risk to a potentially exposed individual. Although analytical methods may be straightforward for relatively simple models, they rapidly become complicated for more involved risk assessments. Because of the tedious efforts required to mathematically derive analytical approaches to propagate uncertainty in complicated risk assessments, numerical methods such as Monte Carlo simulation should be employed. The primary objective of this report is to provide an introductory guide for performing uncertainty analysis in risk assessments being performed for Superfund sites
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Risk Analysis Method Based on FMEA for Transmission Line in Lightning Hazards
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
You-Yuan WANG
2014-05-01
Full Text Available Failure rate of transmission line and reliability of power system are significantly affected by Lightning meteorological factor. In view of the complexity and variability of Lightning meteorological factors, this paper presents lightning trip-out rate model of transmission line in considering distribution of ground flash density and lightning day hours. Meanwhile, presents a failure rate model of transmission line in different condition, and a risk analysis method for transmission line considering multiple risk factors based on risk quantification. This method takes Lightning meteorological factor as the main evaluation standard, and establishes risk degree evaluation system for transmission line including another five evaluation standard. Put forward the risk indicators by quantify the risk factors based on experience date of transmission line in service. Based on the risk indexes comprehensive evaluation is conducted, and the evaluation result closer to practice is achieved, providing basis for transmission line risk warning and maintenance strategy. Through the risk analysis for 220 kV transmission line in a certain power supply bureau, the effectiveness of the proposed method is validated.
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Meat intake and risk of bladder cancer: a meta-analysis.
Wang, Chaojun; Jiang, Hai
2012-06-01
Meat consumption is inconsistently associated with the development of bladder cancer in several epidemiological studies. We performed a meta-analysis of evidence for relationships of meat consumption with risk of bladder cancer. Literature searches were conducted to identify peer-reviewed manuscripts published up to October 2010. Twenty publications from 10 cohort studies and 11 case-control studies were included in the analyses. We quantified associations with bladder cancer using meta-analysis of relative risk (RR) associated with the highest versus the lowest category of meat intake using random effect model. Pooled results indicate that overall meat intake was not related to the risk of bladder cancer (RR = 1.04, 95% CI = 0.80-1.27), while high red and processed meat consumer had a significantly increased 17 and 10% risk, respectively, when comparing the highest with the lowest category of meat intake. In subgroup analyses, studies conduced in Unites States/Canada exhibited a positive relationship between high meat intake and bladder cancer risk, and studies using self-administered questionnaires for exposure assessment also showed a significant increased relative risk for high meat consumers. However, because of borderline significance and small number of publications in individual analyses, more studies, particularly well-designed prospective studies, are needed to confirm these findings.
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A Big Data Analysis Approach for Rail Failure Risk Assessment.
Jamshidi, Ali; Faghih-Roohi, Shahrzad; Hajizadeh, Siamak; Núñez, Alfredo; Babuska, Robert; Dollevoet, Rolf; Li, Zili; De Schutter, Bart
2017-08-01
Railway infrastructure monitoring is a vital task to ensure rail transportation safety. A rail failure could result in not only a considerable impact on train delays and maintenance costs, but also on safety of passengers. In this article, the aim is to assess the risk of a rail failure by analyzing a type of rail surface defect called squats that are detected automatically among the huge number of records from video cameras. We propose an image processing approach for automatic detection of squats, especially severe types that are prone to rail breaks. We measure the visual length of the squats and use them to model the failure risk. For the assessment of the rail failure risk, we estimate the probability of rail failure based on the growth of squats. Moreover, we perform severity and crack growth analyses to consider the impact of rail traffic loads on defects in three different growth scenarios. The failure risk estimations are provided for several samples of squats with different crack growth lengths on a busy rail track of the Dutch railway network. The results illustrate the practicality and efficiency of the proposed approach. © 2017 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.
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Mueller, K.; Yadav, V.; Lopez-Coto, I.; Karion, A.; Gourdji, S.; Martin, C.; Whetstone, J.
2018-03-01
There is increased interest in understanding urban greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. To accurately estimate city emissions, the influence of extraurban fluxes must first be removed from urban greenhouse gas (GHG) observations. This is especially true for regions, such as the U.S. Northeastern Corridor-Baltimore/Washington, DC (NEC-B/W), downwind of large fluxes. To help site background towers for the NEC-B/W, we use a coupled Bayesian Information Criteria and geostatistical regression approach to help site four background locations that best explain CO2 variability due to extraurban fluxes modeled at 12 urban towers. The synthetic experiment uses an atmospheric transport and dispersion model coupled with two different flux inventories to create modeled observations and evaluate 15 candidate towers located along the urban domain for February and July 2013. The analysis shows that the average ratios of extraurban inflow to total modeled enhancements at urban towers are 21% to 36% in February and 31% to 43% in July. In July, the incoming air dominates the total variability of synthetic enhancements at the urban towers (R2 = 0.58). Modeled observations from the selected background towers generally capture the variability in the synthetic CO2 enhancements at urban towers (R2 = 0.75, root-mean-square error (RMSE) = 3.64 ppm; R2 = 0.43, RMSE = 4.96 ppm for February and July). However, errors associated with representing background air can be up to 10 ppm for any given observation even with an optimal background tower configuration. More sophisticated methods may be necessary to represent background air to accurately estimate urban GHG emissions.
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Risk and train control : a framework for analysis
2001-01-01
This report develops and demonstrates a framework for examining the effects of various train control strategies on some of the major risks of railroad operations. Analysis of hypothetical 1200-mile corridor identified the main factors that increase r...
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Risk factors for chronic and recurrent otitis media-a meta-analysis.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yan Zhang
Full Text Available Risk factors associated with chronic otitis media (COM and recurrent otitis media (ROM have been investigated in previous studies. The objective of this study was to integrate the findings and determine the possible risk factors for COM/ROM based on our meta-analysis. A comprehensive search of electronic bibliographic databases (PubMed, Embase, CNKI and Wanfang database from 1964 to Dec 2012, as well as a manual search of references of articles, was performed. A total of 2971 articles were searched, and 198 full-text articles were assessed for eligibility; 24 studies were eligible for this meta-analysis. Regarding risk factors for COM/ROM, there were two to nine different studies from which the odds ratios (ORs could be pooled. The presence of allergy or atopy increased the risk of COM/ROM (OR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.13-1.64; P = 0.001. An upper respiratory tract infection (URTI significantly increased the risk of COM/ROM (OR, 6.59; 95% CI, 3.13-13.89; P<0.00001. Snoring appeared to be a significant risk factor for COM/ROM (OR, 1.96; 95% CI, 1.78-2.16; P<0.00001. A patient history of acute otitis media (AOM/ROM increased the risk of COM/ROM (OR, 11.13; 95% CI, 1.06-116.44; P = 0.04. Passive smoke significantly increased the risk of COM/ROM (OR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.02-1.89 P = 0.04. Low social status appeared to be a risk factor for COM/ROM (OR, 3.82; 95% CI, 1.11-13.15; P = 0.03. Our meta-analysis identified reliable conclusions that allergy/atopy, URTI, snoring, previous history of AOM/ROM, Second-hand smoke and low social status are important risk factors for COM/ROM. Other unidentified risk factors need to be identified in further studies with critical criteria.
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System Analysis and Risk Assessment system (SARA) Version 4.0
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sattison, M.B.; Russell, K.D.; Skinner, N.L.
1992-01-01
This NUREG is the tutorial for the System Analysis and Risk Assessment System (SARA) Version 4.0, a microcomputer-based system used to analyze the safety issues of a family [i.e., a power plant, a manufacturing facility, any facility on which a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) might be performed]. A series of lessons are provided that walk the user through some basic steps common to most analyses performed with SARA. The example problems presented in the lessons build on one another, and in combination, lead the user through all aspects of SARA sensitivity analysis
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Pawel, David [U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; Leggett, Richard Wayne [ORNL; Eckerman, Keith F [ORNL; Nelson, Christopher [U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
2007-01-01
Federal Guidance Report No. 13 (FGR 13) provides risk coefficients for estimation of the risk of cancer due to low-level exposure to each of more than 800 radionuclides. Uncertainties in risk coefficients were quantified in FGR 13 for 33 cases (exposure to each of 11 radionuclides by each of three exposure pathways) on the basis of sensitivity analyses in which various combinations of plausible biokinetic, dosimetric, and radiation risk models were used to generate alternative risk coefficients. The present report updates the uncertainty analysis in FGR 13 for the cases of inhalation and ingestion of radionuclides and expands the analysis to all radionuclides addressed in that report. The analysis indicates that most risk coefficients for inhalation or ingestion of radionuclides are determined within a factor of 5 or less by current information. That is, application of alternate plausible biokinetic and dosimetric models and radiation risk models (based on the linear, no-threshold hypothesis with an adjustment for the dose and dose rate effectiveness factor) is unlikely to change these coefficients by more than a factor of 5. In this analysis the assessed uncertainty in the radiation risk model was found to be the main determinant of the uncertainty category for most risk coefficients, but conclusions concerning the relative contributions of risk and dose models to the total uncertainty in a risk coefficient may depend strongly on the method of assessing uncertainties in the risk model.
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Night Shift Work and Risk of Depression: Meta-analysis of Observational Studies.
Lee, Aeyoung; Myung, Seung Kwon; Cho, Jung Jin; Jung, Yu Jin; Yoon, Jong Lull; Kim, Mee Young
2017-07-01
This study aimed to assess whether night shift work is associated with the risk of depression by using a meta-analysis of observational studies. We searched PubMed and EMBASE in August, 2016 to locate eligible studies and investigated the association between night shift work and the risk of depression, reporting outcome measures with adjusted odds ratios (ORs) or relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). In the meta-analysis of a total of 11 observational studies with 9 cross-sectional study, 1 longitudinal study, and 1 cohort study, night shift work was significantly associated with an increased risk of depression (OR/RR, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.24-1.64; I² = 78.0%). Also, subgroup meta-analyses by gender, night shift work duration, type of occupation, continent, and type of publication showed that night shift work was consistently associated with the increased risk of depression. The current meta-analysis suggests that night shift work is associated with the increased risk of depression. However, further large prospective cohort studies are needed to confirm this association. © 2017 The Korean Academy of Medical Sciences.
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Radiation risk analysis of tritium in PWR plants
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yang Maochun; Wang Shimin
1999-03-01
Tritium is a common radionuclide in PWR nuclear power plant. In the normal operation conditions, its radiation risk to plant workers is the internal radiation exposure when tritium existing in air as HTO (hydrogen tritium oxide) is breathed in. As the HTO has the same physical and chemical characteristics as water, the main way that HTO entering the air is by evaporation. There are few opening systems in Nuclear Power Plant, the radiation risk of tritium mainly exists near the area of spent fuel pit and reactor pit. The highest possible radiation risk it may cause--the maximum concentration in air is the level when equilibrium is established between water and air phases for tritium. The author analyzed the relationship among the concentration of HTO in water, in air and the water temperature when equilibrium is established, the equilibrated HTO concentration in air increases with HTO concentration in water and water temperature. The analysis revealed that at 30 degree C, the equilibrated HTO concentration in air might reach 1 DAC (derived air concentration) when the HTO concentration in water is 28 GBq/m 3 . Owing to the operation of plant ventilation systems and the existence of moisture in the input air of the ventilation, the practical tritium concentration in air is much lower than its equilibrated levels, the radiation risk of tritium in PWR plant is quite limited. In 1997, Daya Bay Nuclear Power Plant's practical monitoring result of the HTO concentration in the air of the nuclear island and the urine of workers supported this conclusion. Based on this analysis, some suggestions to the reduction of tritium radiation risk were made
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Calcium Intake and the Risk of Ovarian Cancer: A Meta-Analysis.
Song, Xingxing; Li, Zongyao; Ji, Xinqiang; Zhang, Dongfeng
2017-06-30
Several epidemiological studies have evaluated the association between calcium intake and the risk of ovarian cancer. However, the results of these studies remain controversial. Thus, we performed a meta-analysis to explore the association between calcium intake and the risk of ovarian cancer. Pubmed, Embase and Web of Science were searched for eligible publications up to April 2017. Pooled relative risks (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using the random-effects model. Small-study effect was estimated using Egger's test and the funnel plot. Among 15 epidemiological studies involving 493,415 participants and 7453 cases eligible for this meta-analysis, 13 studies were about dietary calcium intake, 4 studies about dairy calcium intake and 7 studies about dietary plus supplemental calcium intake. When comparing the highest with the lowest intake, the pooled RRs of ovarian cancer were 0.80 (95% CI 0.72-0.89) for dietary calcium, 0.80 (95% CI 0.66-0.98) for dairy calcium and 0.90 (95% CI 0.65-1.24) for dietary plus supplemental calcium, respectively. Dietary calcium was significantly associated with a reduced risk of ovarian cancer among cohort studies (RR = 0.86, 95% CI 0.74-0.99) and among case-control studies ( RR = 0.75, 95% CI 0.64-0.89). In subgroup analysis by ovarian cancer subtypes, we found a statistically significant association between the dietary calcium ( RR = 0.78, 95% CI 0.69-0.88) and the risk of epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC). This meta-analysis indicated that increased calcium intake might be inversely associated with the risk of ovarian cancer; this still needs to be confirmed by larger prospective cohort studies.
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Dietary Fat Intake and Risk of Gastric Cancer: A Meta-Analysis of Observational Studies
Liu, Xiao; Meng, Qingyang; Xi, Qiulei; Zhuang, Qiulin; Han, Yusong; Gao, Ying; Ding, Qiurong; Wu, Guohao
2015-01-01
Background and Objectives Consumption of dietary fat has been reported to be associated with gastric cancer risk, but the results of epidemiologic studies remain inconsistent. We conducted a meta-analysis to summarize the evidence regarding the association between dietary fat intake and gastric cancer risk. Methods A comprehensive search of PubMed and EMBASE was performed to identify observational studies providing quantitative estimates between dietary fat and gastric cancer risk. Random effects model was used to calculate the summary relative risk(SRR) in the highest versus lowest analysis. Categorical dose-response analysis was conducted to quantify the association between dietary fat intake and gastric cancer risk. Heterogeneity among studies was evaluated using I2 and tau2(between study variance)statistics. Subgroup analysis and publication bias analysis were also performed. Results Twenty-two articles were included in the meta-analysis. The SRR for gastric cancer was 1.18 for individuals with highest intake versus lowest intake of total fat (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.999–1.39; n = 28; Pgastric cancer risk were observed. Conclusions Our results suggest that intake of total fat is potentially positively associated with gastric cancer risk, and specific subtypes of fats account for different effects. However, these findings should be confirmed by further well-designed cohort studieswith detailed dietary assessments and strict control of confounders. PMID:26402223
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Risk analysis of gravity dam instability using credibility theory Monte Carlo simulation model.
Xin, Cao; Chongshi, Gu
2016-01-01
Risk analysis of gravity dam stability involves complicated uncertainty in many design parameters and measured data. Stability failure risk ratio described jointly by probability and possibility has deficiency in characterization of influence of fuzzy factors and representation of the likelihood of risk occurrence in practical engineering. In this article, credibility theory is applied into stability failure risk analysis of gravity dam. Stability of gravity dam is viewed as a hybrid event considering both fuzziness and randomness of failure criterion, design parameters and measured data. Credibility distribution function is conducted as a novel way to represent uncertainty of influence factors of gravity dam stability. And combining with Monte Carlo simulation, corresponding calculation method and procedure are proposed. Based on a dam section, a detailed application of the modeling approach on risk calculation of both dam foundation and double sliding surfaces is provided. The results show that, the present method is feasible to be applied on analysis of stability failure risk for gravity dams. The risk assessment obtained can reflect influence of both sorts of uncertainty, and is suitable as an index value.
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The theoretical aspects of the methodology of risk analysis in chosen business enterprise
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Josef Zrůst
2010-01-01
Full Text Available The risk, crisis, crisis management, crisis regulation and risk management are currently often used terms. It is late to search a cause of crisis in time, when the crisis had broken out and their destructive effects are displaying. It is more suitable to focus on preventive control of business assets. The goal of this article is to suggest a methodical process of risk analysis with focus on protection of carrying business assets. The suggested methodical process of the analysis comes out a persuasion that primary attention is needed to give a protection of carrying business assets. Carrying assets are those which create potentials of business success and in case of their destroying, damaging or loss will originate to subject major or even existence loss. To such chosen carrying business assets are identified threats coming out parts of macro environment (political, legal, economical, social, demographic, technical and technological, ecological and threats from an field environment. To the identification of threats in field environment is used an analysis of five forces model according Porter. As a final step of the suggested methodical process of risk analysis is a creation of a risk matrix to each carrying asset. In this matrix is drawn the risk, which is described with a qualified estimation of occurrence its probability and with an estimation of amount of possible damage, which can be caused by risk. According location the identified risk in the risk matrix is suggested the way of the regulation single risks.It is possible to choose between five basic strategies: Strategy “Take”, Strategy of crisis plans, Strategy of risk treatment, Strategy of risk transfer and Strategy “Terminate”. Single strategies are possible to combine between each other. The combination is suitable in cases, when there is threaten a big loss with a high probability.
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Analysis and risk management after Fukushima
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Nelson, P. F.
2011-11-01
This article describes the impact in the nuclear industry after the only accidents with affectation to the public: the Three Mile Island and Chernobyl. and discusses what comes after Fukushima with regard to the Safety Probabilistic Analysis (Spa) and their use in the decisions taking. A reference to the standard ASME/ANS of Spa is made and the possible changes due to the learned lessons after the Fukushima accident. The main changes are described in the art state and the priorities of the Spa studies. These include the change in the mission time of the emergency systems, the necessity to model the alternating systems, the risk consideration of a site with multi-units, the importance of making a Spa level 3 and the Spa of external events. The Spa is the key tool of the discipline of risk management, but given the learned lessons, is more necessary in all the aspects of the operation and surveillance of a nuclear power plant. A strategy is presented to improve the response to a severe accident, that includes consider the risks of the specific nuclear power plant. (Author)
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Risk and value analysis of SETI
Billingham, J.
1990-01-01
This paper attempts to apply a traditional risk and value analysis to the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence--SETI. In view of the difficulties of assessing the probability of success, a comparison is made between SETI and a previous search for extraterrestrial life, the biological component of Project Viking. Our application of simple Utility Theory, given some reasonable assumptions, suggests that SETI is at least as worthwhile as the biological experiment on Viking.
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Risk analysis for autonomous underwater vehicle operations in extreme environments.
Brito, Mario Paulo; Griffiths, Gwyn; Challenor, Peter
2010-12-01
Autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) are used increasingly to explore hazardous marine environments. Risk assessment for such complex systems is based on subjective judgment and expert knowledge as much as on hard statistics. Here, we describe the use of a risk management process tailored to AUV operations, the implementation of which requires the elicitation of expert judgment. We conducted a formal judgment elicitation process where eight world experts in AUV design and operation were asked to assign a probability of AUV loss given the emergence of each fault or incident from the vehicle's life history of 63 faults and incidents. After discussing methods of aggregation and analysis, we show how the aggregated risk estimates obtained from the expert judgments were used to create a risk model. To estimate AUV survival with mission distance, we adopted a statistical survival function based on the nonparametric Kaplan-Meier estimator. We present theoretical formulations for the estimator, its variance, and confidence limits. We also present a numerical example where the approach is applied to estimate the probability that the Autosub3 AUV would survive a set of missions under Pine Island Glacier, Antarctica in January-March 2009. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.
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Dewi Ratih, Iis; Sutijo Supri Ulama, Brodjol; Prastuti, Mike
2018-03-01
Value at Risk (VaR) is one of the statistical methods used to measure market risk by estimating the worst losses in a given time period and level of confidence. The accuracy of this measuring tool is very important in determining the amount of capital that must be provided by the company to cope with possible losses. Because there is a greater losses to be faced with a certain degree of probability by the greater risk. Based on this, VaR calculation analysis is of particular concern to researchers and practitioners of the stock market to be developed, thus getting more accurate measurement estimates. In this research, risk analysis of stocks in four banking sub-sector, Bank Rakyat Indonesia, Bank Mandiri, Bank Central Asia and Bank Negara Indonesia will be done. Stock returns are expected to be influenced by exogenous variables, namely ICI and exchange rate. Therefore, in this research, stock risk estimation are done by using VaR ARMAX-GARCHX method. Calculating the VaR value with the ARMAX-GARCHX approach using window 500 gives more accurate results. Overall, Bank Central Asia is the only bank had the estimated maximum loss in the 5% quantile.
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Analysis of dependent failures in risk assessment and reliability evaluation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fleming, K.N.; Mosleh, A.; Kelley, A.P. Jr.; Gas-Cooled Reactors Associates, La Jolla, CA)
1983-01-01
The ability to estimate the risk of potential reactor accidents is largely determined by the ability to analyze statistically dependent multiple failures. The importance of dependent failures has been indicated in recent probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) studies as well as in reports of reactor operating experiences. This article highlights the importance of several different types of dependent failures from the perspective of the risk and reliability analyst and provides references to the methods and data available for their analysis. In addition to describing the current state of the art, some recent advances, pitfalls, misconceptions, and limitations of some approaches to dependent failure analysis are addressed. A summary is included of the discourse on this subject, which is presented in the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers/American Nuclear Society PRA Procedures Guide
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Train integrity detection risk analysis based on PRISM
Wen, Yuan
2018-04-01
GNSS based Train Integrity Monitoring System (TIMS) is an effective and low-cost detection scheme for train integrity detection. However, as an external auxiliary system of CTCS, GNSS may be influenced by external environments, such as uncertainty of wireless communication channels, which may lead to the failure of communication and positioning. In order to guarantee the reliability and safety of train operation, a risk analysis method of train integrity detection based on PRISM is proposed in this article. First, we analyze the risk factors (in GNSS communication process and the on-board communication process) and model them. Then, we evaluate the performance of the model in PRISM based on the field data. Finally, we discuss how these risk factors influence the train integrity detection process.
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Vitamin E and risk of age-related cataract: a meta-analysis.
Zhang, Yufei; Jiang, Wenjie; Xie, Zhutian; Wu, Wenlong; Zhang, Dongfeng
2015-10-01
We conducted a meta-analysis to evaluate the relationship between vitamin E and age-related cataract (ARC). The fixed- or random-effect model was selected based on heterogeneity. Meta-regression was used to explore potential sources of between-study heterogeneity. Publication bias was evaluated using Begg's test. The dose-response relationship was assessed by a restricted cubic spline model. Relevant studies were identified by a search of PubMed and the Cochrane Library to May 2014, without language restrictions. Studies involved samples of people of all ages. Dietary vitamin E intake, dietary and supplemental vitamin E intake, and high serum tocopherol levels were significantly associated with decreased risk of ARC, the pooled relative risk was 0·73 (95% CI 0·58, 0·92), 0·86 (95% CI 0·75, 0·99) and 0·77 (95% CI 0·66, 0·91), respectively. Supplemental vitamin E intake was non-significantly associated with ARC risk (relative risk=0·92; 95% CI 0·78, 1·07). The findings from dose-response analysis showed evidence of a non-linear association between dietary vitamin E intake and ARC. The risk of ARC decreased with dietary vitamin E intake from 7 mg/d (relative risk=0·94; 95% CI 0·90, 0·97). The findings of the meta-analysis indicated that dietary vitamin E intake, dietary and supplemental vitamin E intake, and high level of serum tocopherol might be significantly associated with reduced ARC risk.
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Radiation risk perception and public information
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Boggs-Mayes, C.J.
1988-01-01
We as Health Physicists face what, at many times, appears to be a hopeless task. The task simply stated is informing the public about the risks (or lack thereof) of radiation. Unfortunately, the public has perceived radiation risks to be much greater than they actually are. An example of this problem is shown in a paper by Arthur C. Upton. Three groups of people -- the League of Women Voters, students, and Business and Professional Club members -- were asked to rank 30 sources of risk according to their contribution to the number of deaths in the United States. Not surprisingly, they ranked nuclear power much higher and medical x-rays much lower than the actual values. In addition to the perception problem, we are faced with another hurdle: health physicists as communicators. Members of the Health Physics Society (HPS) found that the communication styles of most health physicists appear to be dissimilar to those of the general public. These authors administered the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator to the HPS Baltimore-Washington Chapter. This test, a standardized test for psychological type developed by Isabel Myers, ask questions that provide a quantitative measure of our natural preferences in four areas. Assume that you as a health physicist have the necessary skills to communicate information about radiation to the public. Health physicists do nothing with these tools. Most people involved in radiation protection do not get involved with public information activies. What I will attempt to do is heighten your interest in such activities. I will share information about public information activities in which I have been involved and give you suggestions for sources of information and materials. 2 refs., 1 tab
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Garrick, B.J.
1988-01-01
The aerospace, nuclear power, and chemical processing industries are providing much of the incentive for the development and application of advanced risk analysis techniques to engineered systems. Risk analysis must answer three basic questions: What can go wrong? How likely is it? and What are the consequences? The result of such analyses is not only a quantitative answer to the question of 'What is the risk', but, more importantly, a framework for intelligent and visible risk management. Because of the societal importance of the subject industries and the amount of risk analysis activity involved in each, it is interesting to look for commonalities, differences, and, hopefully, a basis for some standardization. Each industry has its strengths: the solid experience base of the chemical industry, the extensive qualification and testing procedures of the space industry, and the integrative and quantitative risk and reliability methodologies developed for the nuclear power industry. In particular, most advances in data handling, systems interaction modeling, and uncertainty analysis have come from the probabilistic risk assessment work in the nuclear safety field. In the final analysis, all three industries would greatly benefit from a more deliberate technology exchange program in the rapidly evolving discipline of quantitative risk analysis. (author)
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The development of the risk-based cost-benefit analysis framework for risk-informed regulation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yang, Z. A.; Hwang, M. J.; Lee, K. S.
2001-01-01
US NRC (Nuclear Regulatory Committee) introduces the Risk-informed Regulation (RIR) to allocate the resources of NRC effectively and to reduce the unnecessary burden of utilities. This approach inherently includes the cost-benefit analysis (CBA) concept. The CBA method has been widely used for many problems in order to support the decision making by analyzing the effectiveness of the proposed plan and/or activity in the aspect of cost and benefit. However, in general, the conventional CBA method does not use the information such as risk that is the essential element of RIR. So, we developed a revised CBA framework that incorporates the risk information in analyzing the cost and benefit of the regulatory and/or operational activities in nuclear industry
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Risk Analysis and Decision Making FY 2013 Milestone Report
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.; Dale, Crystal; Jones, Edward; Thompson, J.
2013-06-01
Risk analysis and decision making is one of the critical objectives of CCSI, which seeks to use information from science-based models with quantified uncertainty to inform decision makers who are making large capital investments. The goal of this task is to develop tools and capabilities to facilitate the development of risk models tailored for carbon capture technologies, quantify the uncertainty of model predictions, and estimate the technical and financial risks associated with the system. This effort aims to reduce costs by identifying smarter demonstrations, which could accelerate development and deployment of the technology by several years.
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Lima, Julie; Caughy, Margaret; Nettles, Saundra M; O'Campo, Patricia J
2010-10-01
This study builds upon existing research by examining whether risk indices for child psychological well-being behave in the same way in different types of neighborhoods. Specifically, we sought to determine if neighborhood characteristics acted to exacerbate or, alternatively, to buffer risk factors at the family and/or child level. Families with a child entering first grade in Fall 2002 were recruited from Baltimore City neighborhoods, defined as census block groups. This study included 405 children, and data came from an interview with the primary caregiver and an assessment of the first grader. The dependent variables were externalizing behavior and internalizing problems. A family risk index consisting of 13 measures, and a child risk index consisting of three measures were the main independent variables of interest. We examined the effects of these indices on child psychological well-being and behavior across two neighborhood characteristics: neighborhood potential for community involvement with children and neighborhood negative social climate. Results of multivariate analyses indicated that cumulative family risk was associated with an increase in both internalizing and externalizing behavior problems. Perceived negative social climate moderated the effect of family risks on behavior problems such that more risk was associated with a larger increment in both externalizing behavior problems and psychological problems for children living in high versus low risk neighborhoods. These findings further emphasize the importance of considering neighborhood context in the study of child psychological well-being. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Van Gent, Jan-Michael; Calvo, Richard Yee; Zander, Ashley L; Olson, Erik J; Sise, C Beth; Sise, Michael J; Shackford, Steven R
2017-12-01
Venous thromboembolism, including deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and pulmonary embolism (PE), is typically reported as a composite measure of the quality of trauma center care. Given that recent data suggesting postinjury DVT and PE are distinct clinical processes, a better understanding may result from analyzing them as independent, competing events. Using competing risks analysis, we evaluated our hypothesis that the risk factors and timing of postinjury DVT and PE are different. We examined all adult trauma patients admitted to our Level I trauma center from July 2006 to December 2011 who received at least one surveillance duplex ultrasound of the lower extremities and who were at high risk or greater for DVT. Outcomes included DVT and PE events, and time-to-event from admission. We used competing risks analysis to evaluate risk factors for DVT while accounting for PE as a competing event, and vice versa. Of 2,370 patients, 265 (11.2%) had at least one venous thromboembolism event, 235 DVT only, 19 PE only, 11 DVT and PE. Within 2 days of admission, 38% of DVT cases had occurred compared with 26% of PE. Competing risks modeling of DVT as primary event identified older age, severe injury (Injury Severity Score, ≥ 15), mechanical ventilation longer than 4 days, active cancer, history of DVT or PE, major venous repair, male sex, and prophylactic enoxaparin and prophylactic heparin as associated risk factors. Modeling of PE as the primary event showed younger age, nonsevere injury (Injury Severity Score, risk factors for PE and DVT after injury were different, suggesting that they are clinically distinct events that merit independent consideration. Many DVT events occurred early despite prophylaxis, bringing into question the preventability of postinjury DVT. We recommend trauma center quality reporting program measures be revised to account for DVT and PE as unique events. Epidemiologic, level III.
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On the use of the hybrid causal logic method in offshore risk analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Roed, Willy; Mosleh, Ali; Vinnem, Jan Erik; Aven, Terje
2009-01-01
In the Norwegian offshore oil and gas industry risk analyses have been used to provide decision support for more than 20 years. The focus has traditionally been on the planning phase, but during the last years a need for better risk analysis methods for the operational phase has been identified. Such methods should take human and organizational factors into consideration in a more explicit way than the traditional risk analysis methods do. Recently, a framework, called hybrid causal logic (HCL), has been developed based on traditional risk analysis tools combined with Bayesian belief networks (BBNs), using the aviation industry as a case. This paper reviews this framework and discusses its applicability for the offshore industry, and the relationship to existing research projects, such as the barrier and operational risk analysis project (BORA). The paper also addresses specific features of the framework and suggests a new approach for the probability assignment process. This approach simplifies the assignment process considerably without loosing the flexibility that is needed to properly reflect the phenomena being studied
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Damian, April Joy; Mendelson, Tamar; Agus, Deborah
2017-10-01
Despite evidence for the efficacy of buprenorphine treatment in primary care, few studies have identified factors associated with treatment success, nor have such factors been evaluated in community settings. Identifying correlates of treatment success can facilitate the development of treatment models tailored for distinct populations, including low-income communities of color. The current study examined client-level socio-demographic factors associated with treatment success in community-based buprenorphine programs serving vulnerable populations. Data were abstracted from client records for participants (N=445) who met DSM-IV criteria for opioid dependence and sought treatment at one of Behavioral Health Leadership Institute's two community-based recovery programs in Baltimore City from 2010 to 2015. Logistic regression estimated the odds ratios of treatment success (defined as retention in treatment for ≥90days) by sociodemographic predictors including age, race, gender, housing, legal issues and incarceration. The odds of being retained in treatment ≥90days increased with age (5% increase with each year of age; pfactors. Clients who reported unstable housing had a 41% decreased odds of remaining in treatment for 90 or more days compared to clients who lived independently at intake. Treatment success did not significantly differ by several other client-level characteristics including gender, race, employment, legal issues and incarceration. In vulnerable populations, the age factor appears sufficiently significant to justify creating models formulated for younger populations. The data also support attention to housing needs for people in treatment. Findings from this paper can inform future research and program development. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Trees in urban parks and forests reduce O3, but not NO2 concentrations in Baltimore, MD, USA
Yli-Pelkonen, Vesa; Scott, Anna A.; Viippola, Viljami; Setälä, Heikki
2017-10-01
Trees and other vegetation absorb and capture air pollutants, leading to the common perception that they, and trees in particular, can improve air quality in cities and provide an important ecosystem service for urban inhabitants. Yet, there has been a lack of empirical evidence showing this at the local scale with different plant configurations and climatic regions. We studied the impact of urban park and forest vegetation on the levels of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and ground-level ozone (O3) while controlling for temperature during early summer (May) using passive samplers in Baltimore, USA. Concentrations of O3 were significantly lower in tree-covered habitats than in adjacent open habitats, but concentrations of NO2 did not differ significantly between tree-covered and open habitats. Higher temperatures resulted in higher pollutant concentrations and NO2 and O3 concentration were negatively correlated with each other. Our results suggest that the role of trees in reducing NO2 concentrations in urban parks and forests in the Mid-Atlantic USA is minor, but that the presence of tree-cover can result in lower O3 levels compared to similar open areas. Our results further suggest that actions aiming at local air pollution mitigation should consider local variability in vegetation, climate, micro-climate, and traffic conditions.
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Relative risk analysis of several manufactured nanomaterials: an insurance industry context.
Robichaud, Christine Ogilvie; Tanzil, Dicksen; Weilenmann, Ulrich; Wiesner, Mark R
2005-11-15
A relative risk assessment is presented for the industrial fabrication of several nanomaterials. The production processes for five nanomaterials were selected for this analysis, based on their current or near-term potential for large-scale production and commercialization: single-walled carbon nanotubes, bucky balls (C60), one variety of quantum dots, alumoxane nanoparticles, and nano-titanium dioxide. The assessment focused on the activities surrounding the fabrication of nanomaterials, exclusive of any impacts or risks with the nanomaterials themselves. A representative synthesis method was selected for each nanomaterial based on its potential for scaleup. A list of input materials, output materials, and waste streams for each step of fabrication was developed and entered into a database that included key process characteristics such as temperature and pressure. The physical-chemical properties and quantities of the inventoried materials were used to assess relative risk based on factors such as volatility, carcinogenicity, flammability, toxicity, and persistence. These factors were first used to qualitatively rank risk, then combined using an actuarial protocol developed by the insurance industry for the purpose of calculating insurance premiums for chemical manufacturers. This protocol ranks three categories of risk relative to a 100 point scale (where 100 represents maximum risk): incident risk, normal operations risk, and latent contamination risk. Results from this analysis determined that relative environmental risk from manufacturing each of these five materials was comparatively low in relation to other common industrial manufacturing processes.
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Risk analysis of nuclear safeguards regulations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Al-Ayat, R.A.; Altman, W.D.; Judd, B.R.
1982-06-01
The Aggregated Systems Model (ASM), a probabilisitic risk analysis tool for nuclear safeguards, was applied to determine benefits and costs of proposed amendments to NRC regulations governing nuclear material control and accounting systems. The objective of the amendments was to improve the ability to detect insiders attempting to steal large quantities of special nuclear material (SNM). Insider threats range from likely events with minor consequences to unlikely events with catastrophic consequences. Moreover, establishing safeguards regulations is complicated by uncertainties in threats, safeguards performance, and consequences, and by the subjective judgments and difficult trade-offs between risks and safeguards costs. The ASM systematically incorporates these factors in a comprehensive, analytical framework. The ASM was used to evaluate the effectiveness of current safeguards and to quantify the risk of SNM theft. Various modifications designed to meet the objectives of the proposed amendments to reduce that risk were analyzed. Safeguards effectiveness was judged in terms of the probability of detecting and preventing theft, the expected time to detection, and the expected quantity of SNM diverted in a year. Data were gathered in tours and interviews at NRC-licensed facilities. The assessment at each facility was begun by carefully selecting scenarios representing the range of potential insider threats. A team of analysts and facility managers assigned probabilities for detection and prevention events in each scenario. Using the ASM we computed the measures of system effectiveness and identified cost-effective safeguards modifications that met the objectives of the proposed amendments
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Decision theory, the context for risk and reliability analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kaplan, S.
1985-01-01
According to this model of the decision process then, the optimum decision is that option having the largest expected utility. This is the fundamental model of a decision situation. It is necessary to remark that in order for the model to represent a real-life decision situation, it must include all the options present in that situation, including, for example, the option of not deciding--which is itself a decision, although usually not the optimum one. Similarly, it should include the option of delaying the decision while the authors gather further information. Both of these options have probabilities, outcomes, impacts, and utilities like any option and should be included explicitly in the decision diagram. The reason for doing a quantitative risk or reliability analysis is always that, somewhere underlying there is a decision to be made. The decision analysis therefore always forms the context for the risk or reliability analysis, and this context shapes the form and language of that analysis. Therefore, they give in this section a brief review of the well-known decision theory diagram
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DYNAMIC HYBRIDS UNDER SOLVENCY II: RISK ANALYSIS AND MODIFICATION POSSIBILITIES
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Christian Maier
2017-06-01
Full Text Available In this study, we investigate the new and standardized European system of supervisory called Solvency II. In essence, asymmetric distribution of information between policyholder and insurer triggered this new regulation which aims at better protecting policyholders. Its three-pillar model is about to challenge both, insurers as well as policyholders. The first pillar includes quantitative aspects, the second pillar contains qualitative aspects and the third pillar comprises market transparency and reporting obligations. Underwriting risks, the default risk of a bank and market risks can be identified for the dynamic hybrid. Solvency II covers all these risks in the first pillar and insurers shall deposit sufficient risk-bearing capital. In our analysis, we first identify the dynamic hybrid specific risks under the Solvency II regime und then develop product modifications to reduce this risk.
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Vulnerabilities, Influences and Interaction Paths: Failure Data for Integrated System Risk Analysis
Malin, Jane T.; Fleming, Land
2006-01-01
We describe graph-based analysis methods for identifying and analyzing cross-subsystem interaction risks from subsystem connectivity information. By discovering external and remote influences that would be otherwise unexpected, these methods can support better communication among subsystem designers at points of potential conflict and to support design of more dependable and diagnosable systems. These methods identify hazard causes that can impact vulnerable functions or entities if propagated across interaction paths from the hazard source to the vulnerable target. The analysis can also assess combined impacts of And-Or trees of disabling influences. The analysis can use ratings of hazards and vulnerabilities to calculate cumulative measures of the severity and importance. Identification of cross-subsystem hazard-vulnerability pairs and propagation paths across subsystems will increase coverage of hazard and risk analysis and can indicate risk control and protection strategies.
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Shatkin, J. A. [Vireo Advisors, Boston MA USA; Ong, Kimberly J. [Vireo Advisors, Boston MA USA; Beaudrie, Christian [Compass RM, Vancouver CA USA; Clippinger, Amy J. [PETA International Science Consortium Ltd, London UK; Hendren, Christine Ogilvie [Center for the Environmental Implications of NanoTechnology, Duke University, Durham NC USA; Haber, Lynne T. [TERA, Cincinnati OH USA; Hill, Myriam [Health Canada, Ottawa Canada; Holden, Patricia [UC Santa Barbara, Bren School of Environmental Science & Management, ERI, and UC CEIN, University of California, Santa Barbara CA USA; Kennedy, Alan J. [U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Environmental Laboratory, Vicksburg MS USA; Kim, Baram [Independent, Somerville MA USA; MacDonell, Margaret [Argonne National Laboratory, Environmental Science Division, Argonne IL USA; Powers, Christina M. [U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air and Radiation, Office of Transportation and Air Quality, Ann Arbor MI USA; Sharma, Monita [PETA International Science Consortium Ltd, London UK; Sheremeta, Lorraine [Alberta Ingenuity Labs, Edmonton Alberta Canada; Stone, Vicki [John Muir Building Gait 1 Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh Scotland UK; Sultan, Yasir [Environment Canada, Gatineau QC Canada; Turley, Audrey [ICF International, Durham NC USA; White, Ronald H. [RH White Consultants, Silver Spring MD USA
2016-08-01
The Society for Risk Analysis (SRA) has a history of bringing thought leadership to topics of emerging risk. In September 2014, the SRA Emerging Nanoscale Materials Specialty Group convened an international workshop to examine the use of alternative testing strategies (ATS) for manufactured nanomaterials (NM) from a risk analysis perspective. Experts in NM environmental health and safety, human health, ecotoxicology, regulatory compliance, risk analysis, and ATS evaluated and discussed the state of the science for in vitro and other alternatives to traditional toxicology testing for NM. Based on this review, experts recommended immediate and near-term actions that would advance ATS use in NM risk assessment. Three focal areas-human health, ecological health, and exposure considerations-shaped deliberations about information needs, priorities, and the next steps required to increase confidence in and use of ATS in NM risk assessment. The deliberations revealed that ATS are now being used for screening, and that, in the near term, ATS could be developed for use in read-across or categorization decision making within certain regulatory frameworks. Participants recognized that leadership is required from within the scientific community to address basic challenges, including standardizing materials, protocols, techniques and reporting, and designing experiments relevant to real-world conditions, as well as coordination and sharing of large-scale collaborations and data. Experts agreed that it will be critical to include experimental parameters that can support the development of adverse outcome pathways. Numerous other insightful ideas for investment in ATS emerged throughout the discussions and are further highlighted in this article.
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PRA (probabilistic risk analysis) in the nuclear sector. Quantifying human error and human malice
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Heyes, A.G.
1995-01-01
Regardless of the regulatory style chosen ('command and control' or 'functional') a vital prerequisite for coherent safety regulations in the nuclear power industry is the ability to assess accident risk. In this paper we present a critical analysis of current techniques of probabilistic risk analysis applied in the industry, with particular regard to the problems of quantifying risks arising from, or exacerbated by, human risk and/or human error. (Author)